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Sample records for budget theory model

  1. Sublethal toxicant effects with dynamic energy budget theory: model formulation.

    PubMed

    Muller, Erik B; Nisbet, Roger M; Berkley, Heather A

    2010-01-01

    We develop and test a general modeling framework to describe the sublethal effects of pollutants by adding toxicity modules to an established dynamic energy budget (DEB) model. The DEB model describes the rates of energy acquisition and expenditure by individual organisms; the toxicity modules describe how toxicants affect these rates by changing the value of one or more DEB parameters, notably the parameters quantifying the rates of feeding and maintenance. We investigate four toxicity modules that assume: (1) effects on feeding only; (2) effects on maintenance only; (3) effects on feeding and maintenance with similar values for the toxicity parameters; and (4) effects on feeding and maintenance with different values for the toxicity parameters. We test the toxicity modules by fitting each to published data on feeding, respiration, growth and reproduction. Among the pollutants tested are metals (mercury and copper) and various organic compounds (chlorophenols, toluene, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, tetradifon and pyridine); organisms include mussels, oysters, earthworms, water fleas and zebrafish. In most cases, the data sets could be adequately described with any of the toxicity modules, and no single module gave superior fits to all data sets. We therefore propose that for many applications, it is reasonable to use the most general and parameter sparse module, i.e. module 3 that assumes similar effects on feeding and maintenance, as a default. For one example (water fleas), we use parameter estimates to calculate the impact of food availability and toxicant levels on the long term population growth rate. PMID:19633955

  2. Model Error Budgets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Briggs, Hugh C.

    2008-01-01

    An error budget is a commonly used tool in design of complex aerospace systems. It represents system performance requirements in terms of allowable errors and flows these down through a hierarchical structure to lower assemblies and components. The requirements may simply be 'allocated' based upon heuristics or experience, or they may be designed through use of physics-based models. This paper presents a basis for developing an error budget for models of the system, as opposed to the system itself. The need for model error budgets arises when system models are a principle design agent as is increasingly more common for poorly testable high performance space systems.

  3. Modeling the eco-physiology of the purple mauve stinger, Pelagia noctiluca using Dynamic Energy Budget theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Augustine, Starrlight; Rosa, Sara; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.; Carlotti, François; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe

    2014-11-01

    Parameters for the standard Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model were estimated for the purple mauve stinger, Pelagia noctiluca, using literature data. Overall, the model predictions are in good agreement with data covering the full life-cycle. The parameter set we obtain suggests that P. noctiluca is well adapted to survive long periods of starvation since the predicted maximum reserve capacity is extremely high. Moreover we predict that the reproductive output of larger individuals is relatively insensitive to changes in food level while wet mass and length are. Furthermore, the parameters imply that even if food were scarce (ingestion levels only 14% of the maximum for a given size) an individual would still mature and be able to reproduce. We present detailed model predictions for embryo development and discuss the developmental energetics of the species such as the fact that the metabolism of ephyrae accelerates for several days after birth. Finally we explore a number of concrete testable model predictions which will help to guide future research. The application of DEB theory to the collected data allowed us to conclude that P. noctiluca combines maximizing allocation to reproduction with rather extreme capabilities to survive starvation. The combination of these properties might explain why P. noctiluca is a rapidly growing concern to fisheries and tourism.

  4. Radiation budget measurement/model interface

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vonderhaar, T. H.; Ciesielski, P.; Randel, D.; Stevens, D.

    1983-01-01

    This final report includes research results from the period February, 1981 through November, 1982. Two new results combine to form the final portion of this work. They are the work by Hanna (1982) and Stevens to successfully test and demonstrate a low-order spectral climate model and the work by Ciesielski et al. (1983) to combine and test the new radiation budget results from NIMBUS-7 with earlier satellite measurements. Together, the two related activities set the stage for future research on radiation budget measurement/model interfacing. Such combination of results will lead to new applications of satellite data to climate problems. The objectives of this research under the present contract are therefore satisfied. Additional research reported herein includes the compilation and documentation of the radiation budget data set a Colorado State University and the definition of climate-related experiments suggested after lengthy analysis of the satellite radiation budget experiments.

  5. Dynamic energy budget theory restores coherence in biology

    PubMed Central

    Sousa, Tânia; Domingos, Tiago; Poggiale, J.-C.; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.

    2010-01-01

    We present the state of the art of the development of dynamic energy budget theory, and its expected developments in the near future within the molecular, physiological and ecological domains. The degree of formalization in the set-up of the theory, with its roots in chemistry, physics, thermodynamics, evolution and the consistent application of Occam's razor, is discussed. We place the various contributions in the theme issue within this theoretical setting, and sketch the scope of actual and potential applications. PMID:20921042

  6. Allocating the Book Budget: A Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kohut, Joseph D.

    1974-01-01

    Inflation is currently affecting library book budgets, particularly the acquisition of serials. This model would balance the purchase of serials against the purchase of monographs by individual funding units within the academic library. Consideration is given to inflation as a cost factor. The model is applied to a specific example. (Author/LS)

  7. An Earth radiation budget climate model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bartman, Fred L.

    1988-01-01

    A 2-D Earth Radiation Budget Climate Model has been constructed from an OLWR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) model and an Earth albedo model. Each of these models uses the same cloud cover climatology modified by a factor GLCLC which adjusts the global annual average cloud cover. The two models are linked by a set of equations which relate the cloud albedos to the cloud top temperatures of the OLWR model. These equations are derived from simultaneous narrow band satellite measurements of cloud top temperature and albedo. Initial results include global annual average values of albedo and latitude/longitude radiation for 45 percent and 57 percent global annual average cloud cover and two different forms of the cloud albedo-cloud top temperature equations.

  8. Predictive Modeling: Linking Enrollment and Budgeting

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trusheim, Dale; Rylee, Carol

    2011-01-01

    The hard choices that must be made to balance budgets at higher education institutions can be painful and have dramatic consequences that may linger for years. If enrollment projections and therefore tuition income/budgeting projections for future years are inaccurate, then the result may be unnecessary or insufficient budget reductions, both of…

  9. Modeling global macroclimatic constraints on ectotherm energy budgets

    SciTech Connect

    Grant, B.W.; Porter, W.P.

    1992-12-31

    The authors describe a mechanistic individual-based model of how global macroclimatic constraints affect the energy budgets of ectothermic animals. The model uses macroclimatic and biophysical characters of the habitat and organism and tenets of heat transfer theory to calculate hourly temperature availabilities over a year. Data on the temperature dependence of activity rate, metabolism, food consumption and food processing capacity are used to estimate the net rate of resource assimilation which is then integrated over time. They present a new test of this model in which they show that the predicted energy budget sizes for 11 populations of the lizard Sceloporus undulates are in close agreement with observed results from previous field studies. This demonstrates that model tests rae feasible and the results are reasonable. Further, since the model represents an upper bound to the size of the energy budget, observed residual deviations form explicit predictions about the effects of environmental constraints on the bioenergetics of the study lizards within each site that may be tested by future field and laboratory studies. Three major new improvements to the modeling are discussed. They present a means to estimate microclimate thermal heterogeneity more realistically and include its effects on field rates of individual activity and food consumption. Second, they describe an improved model of digestive function involving batch processing of consumed food. Third, they show how optimality methods (specifically the methods of stochastic dynamic programming) may be included to model the fitness consequences of energy allocation decisions subject to food consumption and processing constraints which are predicted from the microclimate and physiological modeling.

  10. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  11. A Budget Simulation Model for Times of Stress.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miner, Alfred Norris

    The Florida Community College Inter-Institutional Research Council (IRC) has developed a computerized budget simulation model which can help administrators determine the general fiscal impact of alternate approaches to resource utilization. This model uses three basic systems and one generalized subroutine, based on the budget requirements of the…

  12. Decentralized Budgeting in Education: Model Variations and Practitioner Perspectives.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hall, George; Metsinger, Jackie; McGinnis, Patricia

    In educational settings, decentralized budgeting refers to various fiscal practices that disperse budgeting responsibility away from central administration to the line education units. This distributed decision-making is common to several financial management models. Among the many financial management models that employ decentralized budgeting…

  13. School-Based Budgeting: A Cost-Benefit Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chan, Lionel

    The objective of school-based budgeting (SBB) is to improve school funding by increasing revenues and reducing systemwide costs. To see whether this approach is more efficient than a centralized budgeting and spending plan, a cost-benefit model is presented here. The paper differentiates between SBB and school-based management, claiming that any…

  14. Program Budgeting Model for Small Research Units.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Edward K.

    Where research activities operate under "fixed" budgetary and resource conditions, allocations of funds must be carefully planned for effective program implementation. Although relatively little information is available on how small research units could use the principles of programed budgeting, a technique for ascertaining program operating costs…

  15. A model for analysis of TDA budget allocation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remer, D. S.; Buchanan, H. R.

    1994-01-01

    There is an ever-increasing need to achieve greater efficiency in the operation of the Deep Space Network (DSN), i.e., increased productivity at reduced cost. One of the tools used in the course of a planning workshop on this subject was a methodology for budget allocation applicable to long-range planning. This article presents a model for analysis of the TDA budget allocation. For the 1994 through 1999 period, the percentage of the total TDA budget allocated to capacity and capability is being cut in half, whereas the percentage spent on efficiency of delivery will be increasing.

  16. 3D modeling of satellite spectral images, radiation budget and energy budget of urban landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gastellu-Etchegorry, J. P.

    2008-12-01

    DART EB is a model that is being developed for simulating the 3D (3 dimensional) energy budget of urban and natural scenes, possibly with topography and atmosphere. It simulates all non radiative energy mechanisms (heat conduction, turbulent momentum and heat fluxes, water reservoir evolution, etc.). It uses DART model (Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer) for simulating radiative mechanisms: 3D radiative budget of 3D scenes and their remote sensing images expressed in terms of reflectance or brightness temperature values, for any atmosphere, wavelength, sun/view direction, altitude and spatial resolution. It uses an innovative multispectral approach (ray tracing, exact kernel, discrete ordinate techniques) over the whole optical domain. This paper presents two major and recent improvements of DART for adapting it to urban canopies. (1) Simulation of the geometry and optical characteristics of urban elements (houses, etc.). (2) Modeling of thermal infrared emission by vegetation and urban elements. The new DART version was used in the context of the CAPITOUL project. For that, districts of the Toulouse urban data base (Autocad format) were translated into DART scenes. This allowed us to simulate visible, near infrared and thermal infrared satellite images of Toulouse districts. Moreover, the 3D radiation budget was used by DARTEB for simulating the time evolution of a number of geophysical quantities of various surface elements (roads, walls, roofs). Results were successfully compared with ground measurements of the CAPITOUL project.

  17. An information theory approach for evaluating earth radiation budget (ERB) measurements - Nonuniform sampling of reflected shortwave radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barkstrom, Bruce R.; Direskeneli, Haldun; Halyo, Nesim

    1992-01-01

    An information theory approach to examine the temporal nonuniform sampling characteristics of shortwave (SW) flux for earth radiation budget (ERB) measurements is suggested. The information gain is computed by computing the information content before and after the measurements. A stochastic diurnal model for the SW flux is developed, and measurements for different orbital parameters are examined. The methodology is applied to specific NASA Polar platform and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) orbital parameters. The information theory approach, coupled with the developed SW diurnal model, is found to be promising for measurements involving nonuniform orbital sampling characteristics.

  18. A Program Budgeting Cost Model for School District Planning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dougharty, Laurence A.; And Others

    This report provides a detailed description of an education program cost model designed to accept descriptions of the size and composition of resources used in a particular program and translate them into an estimate of program cost, for convenient comparison of alternatives. The model also translates ("crosswalks") the program budget into…

  19. Budget constraint and vaccine dosing: a mathematical modelling exercise

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Increasing the number of vaccine doses may potentially improve overall efficacy. Decision-makers need information about choosing the most efficient dose schedule to maximise the total health gain of a population when operating under a constrained budget. The objective of this study is to identify the most efficient vaccine dosing schedule within a fixed vaccination budget from a healthcare payer perspective. Methods An optimisation model is developed in which maximizing the disease reduction is the functional objective and the constraint is the vaccination budget. The model allows variation in vaccination dosing numbers, in cost difference per dose, in vaccine coverage rate, and in vaccine efficacy. We apply the model using the monovalent rotavirus vaccine as an example. Results With a fixed budget, a 2-dose schedule for vaccination against rotavirus infection with the monovalent vaccine results in a larger reduction in disease episodes than a 3-dose scheme with the same vaccine under most circumstances. A 3-dose schedule would only be better under certain conditions: a cost reduction of >26% per dose, combined with vaccine efficacy improvement of ≥5% and a target coverage rate of 75%. Substantial interaction is observed between cost reduction per dose, vaccine coverage rate, and increased vaccine efficacy. Sensitivity analysis shows that the conditions required for a 3-dose strategy to be better than a 2-dose strategy may seldom occur when the budget is fixed. The model does not consider vaccine herd effect, precise timing for additional doses, or the effect of natural immunity development. Conclusions Under budget constraint, optimisation modelling is a helpful tool for a decision-maker selecting the most efficient vaccination dosing schedule. The low dosing scheme could be the optimal option to consider under the many scenarios tested. The model can be applied under many different circumstances of changing dosing schemes with single or multiple

  20. Sublethal toxicant effects with dynamic energy budget theory: application to mussel outplants.

    PubMed

    Muller, Erik B; Osenberg, Craig W; Schmitt, Russell J; Holbrook, Sally J; Nisbet, Roger M

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the effectiveness of a sublethal toxic effect model embedded in Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory for the analysis of field data. We analyze the performance of two species of mussels, Mytilus galloprovincialis and M. californianus, near a diffuser discharging produced water in the Southern California Bight, California. Produced water is a byproduct of oil production consisting of fossil water together with compounds added during the extraction process, and generally contains highly elevated levels of pollutants relative to sea water. Produced water negatively affects the production of somatic and reproductive biomass in both mussel species; we show that these negative effects can be quantified with our DEB-based modeling framework through the estimation of toxic effect scaling parameters. Our analyses reveal that the toxic impact of produced water on growth and reproduction of M. californianus is substantially higher than for M. galloprovincialis. Projections of the expected lifetime production of gonad biomass indicate that the environmental impact of produced water can be as large as 100%, whereas short-term assessment without the use of DEB theory projects a maximum effect of only 30%.

  1. THE Antarctic Atmospheric Energy Budget: Observations and Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Previdi, M. J.; Smith, K. L.; Polvani, L. M.

    2014-12-01

    We present a new, observationally-based estimate of the atmospheric energy budget for the Antarctic polar cap (the region poleward of 70°S). This energy budget is constructed using state-of-the-art reanalysis products from ECMWF [the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim)] and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes. We find that the climatological mean Antarctic energy budget is characterized by an approximate balance between the TOA net outgoing radiation and the horizontal convergence of atmospheric energy transport, with the net surface energy flux and atmospheric energy storage generally being small in comparison. We compare these observationally-based results with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulations that have been made available as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5). While CMIP5 models generally perform well in simulating the observed climatological mean energy budget, some notable model biases are apparent. These biases are most pronounced during the austral summer and fall seasons, with the largest biases (approaching 30 W m-2 for some models) occurring for the TOA net incoming shortwave radiation during summer. Finally, we examine the causes of model biases (e.g., deficiencies in the simulated cloud cover and sea ice), as well as their relationship to the simulated twenty-first century trends in the energy budget. We find a statistically significant inverse correlation across the CMIP5 models between the present-day biases in atmospheric energy transport into the polar cap, and the simulated future changes in energy transport over the twenty-first century. Possible reasons for this relationship are discussed.

  2. Subcellular metabolic organization in the context of dynamic energy budget and biochemical systems theories.

    PubMed

    Vinga, S; Neves, A R; Santos, H; Brandt, B W; Kooijman, S A L M

    2010-11-12

    The dynamic modelling of metabolic networks aims to describe the temporal evolution of metabolite concentrations in cells. This area has attracted increasing attention in recent years owing to the availability of high-throughput data and the general development of systems biology as a promising approach to study living organisms. Biochemical Systems Theory (BST) provides an accurate formalism to describe biological dynamic phenomena. However, knowledge about the molecular organization level, used in these models, is not enough to explain phenomena such as the driving forces of these metabolic networks. Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory captures the quantitative aspects of the organization of metabolism at the organism level in a way that is non-species-specific. This imposes constraints on the sub-organismal organization that are not present in the bottom-up approach of systems biology. We use in vivo data of lactic acid bacteria under various conditions to compare some aspects of BST and DEB approaches. Due to the large number of parameters to be estimated in the BST model, we applied powerful parameter identification techniques. Both models fitted equally well, but the BST model employs more parameters. The DEB model uses similarities of processes under growth and no-growth conditions and under aerobic and anaerobic conditions, which reduce the number of parameters. This paper discusses some future directions for the integration of knowledge from these two rich and promising areas, working top-down and bottom-up simultaneously. This middle-out approach is expected to bring new ideas and insights to both areas in terms of describing how living organisms operate. PMID:20921043

  3. Electric solar wind sail mass budget model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janhunen, P.; Quarta, A. A.; Mengali, G.

    2013-02-01

    The electric solar wind sail (E-sail) is a new type of propellantless propulsion system for Solar System transportation, which uses the natural solar wind to produce spacecraft propulsion. The E-sail consists of thin centrifugally stretched tethers that are kept charged by an onboard electron gun and, as such, experience Coulomb drag through the high-speed solar wind plasma stream. This paper discusses a mass breakdown and a performance model for an E-sail spacecraft that hosts a mission-specific payload of prescribed mass. In particular, the model is able to estimate the total spacecraft mass and its propulsive acceleration as a function of various design parameters such as the number of tethers and their length. A number of subsystem masses are calculated assuming existing or near-term E-sail technology. In light of the obtained performance estimates, an E-sail represents a promising propulsion system for a variety of transportation needs in the Solar System.

  4. Theory Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Shlachter, Jack

    2012-08-23

    Los Alamos has a long history in theory, modeling and simulation. We focus on multidisciplinary teams that tackle complex problems. Theory, modeling and simulation are tools to solve problems just like an NMR spectrometer, a gas chromatograph or an electron microscope. Problems should be used to define the theoretical tools needed and not the other way around. Best results occur when theory and experiments are working together in a team.

  5. The Potential Vorticity Budget of Multi-Scale MJO Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Back, A.; Biello, J. A.; Majda, A.

    2015-12-01

    Zhang and Ling (J. Atmos. Sci. 2012) performed a comprehensive analysis of the potential vorticity budget of the Madden-Julian Oscillation throughout its initiation and evolution. Biello and Majda have used the Intraseasonal Planetary Equatorial Synoptic-Scale Dynamics (IPESD) framework of Majda and Klein (J. Atmos. Sci. 2003) to create kinematic models of the MJO which distinguish MJO events forced by large-scale heating from MJO events forced by the upscale fluxes of momentum and temperature from the synoptic scales. In the present study, the results of Zhang and Ling provide a benchmark for comparing the different multi-scale MJO models. In particular, a potential vorticity budget can be obtained in the multiscale framework, and the advection, in-scale generation and upscale transfer of PV are considered.

  6. The Global Energy Budget -- A Student Exercise in Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulder, Gregory

    2004-05-01

    What in the world does an Energy Czar have to worry about? In this session, we will explore an exercise where students are appointed "Energy Czar" of the planet. This modeling project shows past energy consumption patterns and allows students to manipulate the world's energy usage into the future. Students are asked to use their knowledge of current and future energy sources, as well as other variables important to the world's energy budget, to build the energy future of their dreams.

  7. The Earth's Energy Budget Across CMIP5 Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Portmann, R. W.; Larson, E. J. L.

    2015-12-01

    The earth's energy budget is analyzed across models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) archive and compared with observations. The total energy added to the earth system along with the fate of that energy is analyzed. The energy added to the system is derived from the radiative forcing and is separated into individual forcing terms. The fate of the energy is controlled by the size of the climate feedback to the applied forcing. The relationship between the forcing, feedback, and the stored energy varies greatly across CMIP5 models. The model relationships are compared to observations during the recent time period since 1950 (including the hiatus period). This provides a stringent test of model fidelity against observation, although in some models it is hampered by the inability to adequately remove model drifts. It is found that while the multi-model means of the terms in the earth's energy budgets are in reasonable agreement with observations there are substantial range across individual models.

  8. Relation of the double-ITCZ bias to the atmospheric energy budget in climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adam, Ori; Schneider, Tapio; Brient, Florent; Bischoff, Tobias

    2016-07-01

    We examine how tropical zonal mean precipitation biases in current climate models relate to the atmospheric energy budget. Both hemispherically symmetric and antisymmetric tropical precipitation biases contribute to the well-known double-Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) bias; however, they have distinct signatures in the energy budget. Hemispherically symmetric biases in tropical precipitation are proportional to biases in the equatorial net energy input; hemispherically antisymmetric biases are proportional to the atmospheric energy transport across the equator. Both relations can be understood within the framework of recently developed theories. Atmospheric net energy input biases in the deep tropics shape both the symmetric and antisymmetric components of the double-ITCZ bias. Potential causes of these energetic biases and their variation across climate models are discussed.

  9. CONSTRUCTION OF EDUCATIONAL THEORY MODELS.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MACCIA, ELIZABETH S.; AND OTHERS

    THIS STUDY DELINEATED MODELS WHICH HAVE POTENTIAL USE IN GENERATING EDUCATIONAL THEORY. A THEORY MODELS METHOD WAS FORMULATED. BY SELECTING AND ORDERING CONCEPTS FROM OTHER DISCIPLINES, THE INVESTIGATORS FORMULATED SEVEN THEORY MODELS. THE FINAL STEP OF DEVISING EDUCATIONAL THEORY FROM THE THEORY MODELS WAS PERFORMED ONLY TO THE EXTENT REQUIRED TO…

  10. How processing digital elevation models can affect simulated water budgets

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kuniansky, E.L.; Lowery, M.A.; Campbell, B.G.

    2009-01-01

    For regional models, the shallow water table surface is often used as a source/sink boundary condition, as model grid scale precludes simulation of the water table aquifer. This approach is appropriate when the water table surface is relatively stationary. Since water table surface maps are not readily available, the elevation of the water table used in model cells is estimated via a two-step process. First, a regression equation is developed using existing land and water table elevations from wells in the area. This equation is then used to predict the water table surface for each model cell using land surface elevation available from digital elevation models (DEM). Two methods of processing DEM for estimating the land surface for each cell are commonly used (value nearest the cell centroid or mean value in the cell). This article demonstrates how these two methods of DEM processing can affect the simulated water budget. For the example presented, approximately 20% more total flow through the aquifer system is simulated if the centroid value rather than the mean value is used. This is due to the one-third greater average ground water gradients associated with the centroid value than the mean value. The results will vary depending on the particular model area topography and cell size. The use of the mean DEM value in each model cell will result in a more conservative water budget and is more appropriate because the model cell water table value should be representative of the entire cell area, not the centroid of the model cell.

  11. Modelling mussel growth in ecosystems with low suspended matter loads using a Dynamic Energy Budget approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duarte, P.; Fernández-Reiriz, M. J.; Labarta, U.

    2012-01-01

    The environmental and the economic importance of shellfish stimulated a great deal of studies on their physiology over the last decades, with many attempts to model their growth. The first models developed to simulate bivalve growth were predominantly based on the Scope For Growth ( SFG) paradigm. In the last years there has been a shift towards the Dynamic Energy Budget ( DEB) paradigm. The general objective of this work is contributing to the evaluation of different approaches to simulate bivalve growth in low seston waters by: (i) implementing a model to simulate mussel growth in low suspended matter ecosystems based on the DEB theory (Kooijman, S.A.L.M., 2000. Dynamic and energy mass budgets in biological systems, Cambridge University Press); (ii) comparing and discussing different approaches to simulate feeding processes, in the light of recently published works both on experimental physiology and physiology modeling; (iii) comparing and discussing results obtained with a model based on EMMY ( Scholten and Smaal, 1998). The model implemented allowed to successfully simulate mussel feeding and shell length growth in two different Galician Rias. Obtained results together with literature data suggest that modeling of bivalve feeding should incorporate physiologic feed-backs related with food digestibility. In spite of considerable advances in bivalve modeling a number of issues is yet to be resolved, with emphasis on the way food sources are represented and feeding processes formulated.

  12. Modelling Changes of the Paleogene Ca Budget Using Benthic Foraminifera

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pabich, S.; Gussone, N. C.; Vollmer, C.; Palike, H.; Rabe, K.; Teichert, B. M.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the earth's climate as well as the oceanic chemical and isotopic evolution in the past is one of the main aims in earth science. Ca as one of the major elements in the ocean is especially important. Its variation in concentration are controlled by different factors including the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere, continental weathering and Ca carbonate sedimentation. We used samples from IODP Exp. 320/321 to establish a δ44/40Ca paleo-seawater record between 45 and 25 Ma and model changes in the Ca budget through time. Our results show differences in the Eocene and Oligocene Ca isotope record of benthic foraminifers. The δ44/40Ca values during the Eocene are relatively constant with no significant fluctuations during phases of large short term CCD fluctuations[1]. The Oligocene is characterized by sediments with uniformly high carbonate content and increasing δ44/40Ca towards the late Oligocene. Past seawater δ44/40Ca values (Fig. 1) were calculated from the measured benthic foraminifer record applying the calibration for Gyroidinoides spp.[2]. The Ca budget during the Eocene is relatively constant and not affected by short term CCD fluctuations, indicating that they are too small to alter the isotopic Ca budget. The Oligocene, in contrast is characterized by a general increase in δ44/40Ca seawater values and a continuously deep CCD[1]. This is consistent with a massive long term (>1Ma) CaCO3 deposition and decreasing Ca concentration in the ocean water. To examine the preservation (dissolution and recrystallization) of the foraminifer test through time, we studied additionally the changes in the crystallographic orientations trough time by Electron Backscatter Diffraction (EBSD) analysis and Raman spectroscopy. As a final step we use our δ44/40Ca seawater record to run a combined Ca and C model showing the effect of Ca weathering input, carbonate remobilization and dolomitization on the Ca and carbonate system of seawater [1]. [1]Pälike H

  13. Analyzing variations in life-history traits of Pacific salmon in the context of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pecquerie, Laure; Johnson, Leah R.; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.; Nisbet, Roger M.

    2011-11-01

    To determine the response of Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) populations to environmental change, we need to understand impacts on all life stages. However, an integrative and mechanistic approach is particularly challenging for Pacific salmon as they use multiple habitats (river, estuarine and marine) during their life cycle. Here we develop a bioenergetic model that predicts development, growth and reproduction of a Pacific salmon in a dynamic environment, from an egg to a reproducing female, and that links female state to egg traits. This model uses Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory to predict how life history traits vary among five species of Pacific salmon: Pink, Sockeye, Coho, Chum and Chinook. Supplemented with a limited number of assumptions on anadromy and semelparity and external signals for migrations, the model reproduces the qualitative patterns in egg size, fry size and fecundity both at the inter- and intra-species levels. Our results highlight how modeling all life stages within a single framework enables us to better understand complex life-history patterns. Additionally we show that body size scaling relationships implied by DEB theory provide a simple way to transfer model parameters among Pacific salmon species, thus providing a generic approach to study the impact of environmental conditions on the life cycle of Pacific salmon.

  14. Theory and modeling group

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holman, Gordon D.

    1989-01-01

    The primary purpose of the Theory and Modeling Group meeting was to identify scientists engaged or interested in theoretical work pertinent to the Max '91 program, and to encourage theorists to pursue modeling which is directly relevant to data which can be expected to result from the program. A list of participants and their institutions is presented. Two solar flare paradigms were discussed during the meeting -- the importance of magnetic reconnection in flares and the applicability of numerical simulation results to solar flare studies.

  15. ENSO in CMIP5 models from an energy budget perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayer, Michael; Haimberger, Leopold

    2015-04-01

    Vast amounts of energy are exchanged between ocean, atmosphere, and space in association with the primary mode of global climate variability, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Energy budgets of all tropical (30S-30N) ocean basins and the atmosphere are assessed separately to depict anomalous energy flows associated with ENSO in a consistent budget framework. First, state-of-the art atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses are employed to robustly quantify changes in ocean heat storage, anomalous ocean-atmosphere energy exchanges and atmospheric energy transports during ENSO. Variability of area-averaged tropical Pacific ocean heat content (OHC) to a large extent is modulated by energy flow through the ocean surface. While redistribution of OHC within the tropical Pacific is an integral part of ENSO dynamics, variability of lateral ocean heat transport out of the tropical Pacific region is found to be small. The only noteworthy contributions arise from the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), which is anti-correlated with ENSO at a few months lag. Regression analysis reveals that atmospheric energy transport and RadTOA (radiation at top-of-the-atmosphere) almost perfectly balance the OHC changes and ITF variability associated with ENSO. Only a relatively small fraction of El Niño-related heat lost by the Pacific ocean is radiated to space (mainly in the Pacific subtropics), whereas the major part of the energy is transported away by the atmosphere. Ample changes in tropical atmospheric circulation lead to enhanced surface fluxes and consequently to an increase of tropical Atlantic and Indian OHC that to very large degree compensates tropical Pacific OHC loss. This signature of energy redistribution is robust across the employed datasets for all three tropical ocean basins and explains the small observed ENSO signal in global mean RadTOA. These results are then used as a benchmark to evaluate the energy pathways during ENSO as simulated by an ensemble of coupled climate

  16. Modeling and flow theory

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-10-01

    (1) We recommend the establishment of an experimental test facility, appropriately instrumented, dedicated to research on theoretical modeling concepts. Validation of models for the various flow regimes, and establishment of the limitations or concepts used in the construction of models, are sorely needed areas of research. There exists no mechanism currently for funding of such research on a systematic basis. Such a facility would provide information fundamental to progress in the physics of turbulent multi-phase flow, which would also have impact on the understanding of coal utilization processes; (2) combustion research appears to have special institutional barriers to information exchange because it is an established, commercial ongoing effort, with heavy reliance on empirical data for proprietary configurations; (3) for both gasification and combustion reactors, current models appear to handle adequately some, perhaps even most, gross aspects of the reactors such as overall efficiency and major chemical output constituents. However, new and more stringent requirements concerning NOX, SOX and POX (small paticulate) production require greater understanding of process details and spatial inhomogenities, hence refinement of current models to include some greater detail is necessary; (4) further progress in the theory of single-phase turbulent flow would benefit our understanding of both combustors and gasifiers; and (5) another area in which theoretical development would be extremely useful is multi-phase flow.

  17. An Integrated Performance-Based Budgeting Model for Thai Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Charoenkul, Nantarat; Siribanpitak, Pruet

    2012-01-01

    This research mainly aims to develop an administrative model of performance-based budgeting for autonomous state universities. The sample population in this study covers 4 representatives of autonomous state universities from 4 regions of Thailand, where the performance-based budgeting system has been fully practiced. The research informants…

  18. Human risky choice under temporal constraints: tests of an energy-budget model.

    PubMed Central

    Pietras, Cynthia J; Locey, Matthew L; Hackenberg, Timothy D

    2003-01-01

    Risk-sensitive foraging models predict that choice between fixed and variable food delays should be influenced by an organism's energy budget. To investigate whether the predictions of these models could be extended to choice in humans, risk sensitivity in 4 adults was investigated under laboratory conditions designed to model positive and negative energy budgets. Subjects chose between fixed and variable trial durations with the same mean value. An energy requirement was modeled by requiring that five trials be completed within a limited time period for points delivered at the end of the period (block of trials) to be exchanged later for money. Manipulating the duration of this time period generated positive and negative earnings budgets (or, alternatively, "time budgets"). Choices were consistent with the predictions of energy-budget models: The fixed-delay option was strongly preferred under positive earnings-budget conditions and the variable-delay option was strongly preferred under negative earnings-budget conditions. Within-block (or trial-by-trial) choices were also frequently consistent with the predictions of a dynamic optimization model, indicating that choice was simultaneously sensitive to the temporal requirements, delays associated with fixed and variable choices on the upcoming trial, cumulative delays within the block of trials, and trial position within a block. PMID:13677609

  19. Quantitative steps in the evolution of metabolic organisation as specified by the Dynamic Energy Budget theory.

    PubMed

    Kooijman, S A L M; Troost, T A

    2007-02-01

    The Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory quantifies the metabolic organisation of organisms on the basis of mechanistically inspired assumptions. We here sketch a scenario for how its various modules, such as maintenance, storage dynamics, development, differentiation and life stages could have evolved since the beginning of life. We argue that the combination of homeostasis and maintenance induced the development of reserves and that subsequent increases in the maintenance costs came with increases of the reserve capacity. Life evolved from a multiple reserves - single structure system (prokaryotes, many protoctists) to systems with multiple reserves and two structures (plants) or single reserve and single structure (animals). This had profound consequences for the possible effects of temperature on rates. We present an alternative explanation for what became known as the down-regulation of maintenance at high growth rates in microorganisms; the density of the limiting reserve increases with the growth rate, and reserves do not require maintenance while structure-specific maintenance costs are independent of the growth rate. This is also the mechanism behind the variation of the respiration rate with body size among species. The DEB theory specifies reserve dynamics on the basis of the requirements of weak homeostasis and partitionability. We here present a new and simple mechanism for this dynamics which accounts for the rejection of mobilised reserve by busy maintenance/growth machinery. This module, like quite a few other modules of DEB theory, uses the theory of Synthesising Units; we review recent progress in this field. The plasticity of membranes that evolved in early eukaryotes is a major step forward in metabolic evolution; we discuss quantitative aspects of the efficiency of phagocytosis relative to the excretion of digestive enzymes to illustrate its importance. Some processes of adaptation and gene expression can be understood in terms of allocation

  20. Evaluation Theory, Models, and Applications

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stufflebeam, Daniel L.; Shinkfield, Anthony J.

    2007-01-01

    "Evaluation Theory, Models, and Applications" is designed for evaluators and students who need to develop a commanding knowledge of the evaluation field: its history, theory and standards, models and approaches, procedures, and inclusion of personnel as well as program evaluation. This important book shows how to choose from a growing array of…

  1. Towards the determination of Mytilus edulis food preferences using the dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory.

    PubMed

    Picoche, Coralie; Le Gendre, Romain; Flye-Sainte-Marie, Jonathan; Françoise, Sylvaine; Maheux, Frank; Simon, Benjamin; Gangnery, Aline

    2014-01-01

    The blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, is a commercially important species, with production based on both fisheries and aquaculture. Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models have been extensively applied to study its energetics but such applications require a deep understanding of its nutrition, from filtration to assimilation. Being filter feeders, mussels show multiple responses to temporal fluctuations in their food and environment, raising questions that can be investigated by modeling. To provide a better insight into mussel-environment interactions, an experiment was conducted in one of the main French growing zones (Utah Beach, Normandy). Mussel growth was monitored monthly for 18 months, with a large number of environmental descriptors measured in parallel. Food proxies such as chlorophyll a, particulate organic carbon and phytoplankton were also sampled, in addition to non-nutritious particles. High-frequency physical data recording (e.g., water temperature, immersion duration) completed the habitat description. Measures revealed an increase in dry flesh mass during the first year, followed by a high mass loss, which could not be completely explained by the DEB model using raw external signals. We propose two methods that reconstruct food from shell length and dry flesh mass variations. The former depends on the inversion of the growth equation while the latter is based on iterative simulations. Assemblages of food proxies are then related to reconstructed food input, with a special focus on plankton species. A characteristic contribution is attributed to these sources to estimate nutritional values for mussels. M. edulis shows no preference between most plankton life history traits. Selection is based on the size of the ingested particles, which is modified by the volume and social behavior of plankton species. This finding reveals the importance of diet diversity and both passive and active selections, and confirms the need to adjust DEB models to different

  2. Towards the Determination of Mytilus edulis Food Preferences Using the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) Theory

    PubMed Central

    Picoche, Coralie; Le Gendre, Romain; Flye-Sainte-Marie, Jonathan; Françoise, Sylvaine; Maheux, Frank; Simon, Benjamin; Gangnery, Aline

    2014-01-01

    The blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, is a commercially important species, with production based on both fisheries and aquaculture. Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models have been extensively applied to study its energetics but such applications require a deep understanding of its nutrition, from filtration to assimilation. Being filter feeders, mussels show multiple responses to temporal fluctuations in their food and environment, raising questions that can be investigated by modeling. To provide a better insight into mussel–environment interactions, an experiment was conducted in one of the main French growing zones (Utah Beach, Normandy). Mussel growth was monitored monthly for 18 months, with a large number of environmental descriptors measured in parallel. Food proxies such as chlorophyll a, particulate organic carbon and phytoplankton were also sampled, in addition to non-nutritious particles. High-frequency physical data recording (e.g., water temperature, immersion duration) completed the habitat description. Measures revealed an increase in dry flesh mass during the first year, followed by a high mass loss, which could not be completely explained by the DEB model using raw external signals. We propose two methods that reconstruct food from shell length and dry flesh mass variations. The former depends on the inversion of the growth equation while the latter is based on iterative simulations. Assemblages of food proxies are then related to reconstructed food input, with a special focus on plankton species. A characteristic contribution is attributed to these sources to estimate nutritional values for mussels. M. edulis shows no preference between most plankton life history traits. Selection is based on the size of the ingested particles, which is modified by the volume and social behavior of plankton species. This finding reveals the importance of diet diversity and both passive and active selections, and confirms the need to adjust DEB models to different

  3. The "covariation method" for estimating the parameters of the standard Dynamic Energy Budget model I: Philosophy and approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lika, Konstadia; Kearney, Michael R.; Freitas, Vânia; van der Veer, Henk W.; van der Meer, Jaap; Wijsman, Johannes W. M.; Pecquerie, Laure; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.

    2011-11-01

    The Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory for metabolic organisation captures the processes of development, growth, maintenance, reproduction and ageing for any kind of organism throughout its life-cycle. However, the application of DEB theory is challenging because the state variables and parameters are abstract quantities that are not directly observable. We here present a new approach of parameter estimation, the covariation method, that permits all parameters of the standard Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model to be estimated from standard empirical datasets. Parameter estimates are based on the simultaneous minimization of a weighted sum of squared deviations between a number of data sets and model predictions or the minimisation of the negative log likelihood function, both in a single-step procedure. The structure of DEB theory permits the unusual situation of using single data-points (such as the maximum reproduction rate), which we call "zero-variate" data, for estimating parameters. We also introduce the concept of "pseudo-data", exploiting the rules for the covariation of parameter values among species that are implied by the standard DEB model. This allows us to introduce the concept of a generalised animal, which has specified parameter values. We here outline the philosophy behind the approach and its technical implementation. In a companion paper, we assess the behaviour of the estimation procedure and present preliminary findings of emerging patterns in parameter values across diverse taxa.

  4. Estimation of IT energy budget during the St. Patrick's Day storm 2015: observations, modeling and challenges.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Meng, X.; Mannucci, A. J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Hunt, L. A.; Tsurutani, B.

    2015-12-01

    We present estimates for the energy budget of the 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm. Empirical models and coupling functions are used as proxies for energy input due to solar wind-magnetosphere coupling. Fluxes of thermospheric nitric oxide and carbon dioxide cooling emissions are estimated in several latitude ranges. Solar wind data and the Weimer 2005 model for high-latitude electrodynamics are used to drive GITM modeling for the storm. Model estimations for energy partitioning, Joule heating, NO cooling are compared with observations and empirical proxies. We outline challenges in the estimation of the IT energy budget (Joule heating, Poynting flux, particle precipitation) during geomagnetic storms.

  5. A Computational Theory of Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossberg, Axel G.

    2003-04-01

    A metatheory is developed which characterizes the relationship between a modelled system, which complies with some ``basic theory'', and a model, which does not, and yet reproduces important aspects of the modelled system. A model is represented by an (in a certain sense, s.b.) optimal algorithm which generates data that describe the model's state or evolution complying with a ``reduced theory''. Theories are represented by classes of (in a similar sense, s.b.) optimal algorithms that test if their input data comply with the theory. The metatheory does not prescribe the formalisms (data structure, language) to be used for the description of states or evolutions. Transitions to other formalisms and loss of accuracy, common to theory reduction, are explicitly accounted for. The basic assumption of the theory is that resources such as the code length (~ programming time) and the computation time for modelling and testing are costly, but the relative cost of each recourse is unknown. Thus, if there is an algorithm a for which there is no other algorithm b solving the same problem but using less of each recourse, then a is considered optimal. For tests (theories), the set X of wrongly admitted inputs is treated as another resource. It is assumed that X1 is cheaper than X2 when X1 ⊂ X2 (X1 ≠ X2). Depending on the problem, the algorithmic complexity of a reduced theory can be smaller or larger than that of the basic theory. The theory might help to distinguish actual properties of complex systems from mere mental constructs. An application to complex spatio-temporal patterns is discussed.

  6. Ecosystem Modeling of Biological Processes to Global Budgets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christopher, Potter S.; Condon, Estelle (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    biosphere effects on atmospheric composition is the ecosystem level. These assumptions are the foundation for developing modern emission budgets for biogenic gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, carbon monoxide, isoprene, nitrous and nitric oxide, and ammonia. Such emission budgets commonly include information on seasonal flux patterns, typical diurnal profiles, and spatial resolution of at least one degree latitude/longitude for the globe. On the basis of these budgets, it is possible to compute 'base emission rates' for the major biogenic trace gases from both terrestrial and ocean sources, which may be useful benchmarks for defining the gas production rates of organisms, especially those from early Earth history, which are required to generate a detectable signal on a global atmosphere. This type of analysis is also the starting point for evaluation of the 'biological processes to global gas budget' extrapolation procedure described above for early Earth ecosystems.

  7. A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) Model for the Keystone Predator Pisaster ochraceus

    PubMed Central

    Monaco, Cristián J.; Wethey, David S.; Helmuth, Brian

    2014-01-01

    We present a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for the quintessential keystone predator, the rocky-intertidal sea star Pisaster ochraceus. Based on first principles, DEB theory is used to illuminate underlying physiological processes (maintenance, growth, development, and reproduction), thus providing a framework to predict individual-level responses to environmental change. We parameterized the model for P. ochraceus using both data from the literature and experiments conducted specifically for the DEB framework. We devoted special attention to the model’s capacity to (1) describe growth trajectories at different life-stages, including pelagic larval and post-metamorphic phases, (2) simulate shrinkage when prey availability is insufficient to meet maintenance requirements, and (3) deal with the combined effects of changing body temperature and food supply. We further validated the model using an independent growth data set. Using standard statistics to compare model outputs with real data (e.g. Mean Absolute Percent Error, MAPE) we demonstrated that the model is capable of tracking P. ochraceus’ growth in length at different life-stages (larvae: MAPE = 12.27%; post-metamorphic, MAPE = 9.22%), as well as quantifying reproductive output index. However, the model’s skill dropped when trying to predict changes in body mass (MAPE = 24.59%), potentially because of the challenge of precisely anticipating spawning events. Interestingly, the model revealed that P. ochraceus reserves contribute little to total biomass, suggesting that animals draw energy from structure when food is limited. The latter appears to drive indeterminate growth dynamics in P. ochraceus. Individual-based mechanistic models, which can illuminate underlying physiological responses, offer a viable framework for forecasting population dynamics in the keystone predator Pisaster ochraceus. The DEB model herein represents a critical step in that direction, especially in a period of

  8. Extending Structuration Theory: A Study of an IT-Enabled Budget Reform in Mexico

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Puron Cid, Gabriel

    2010-01-01

    For more than 50 years, governments have been engaged in recurrent reforms to their budgetary systems. New budgetary and managerial techniques and information systems (IS) are often coupled together with the goal of facilitating the adoption of budget reforms. The result is a joint innovation unevenly adopted across different organizations and…

  9. Dynamic Energy Budget model parameter estimation for the bivalve Mytilus californianus: Application of the covariation method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matzelle, A.; Montalto, V.; Sarà, G.; Zippay, M.; Helmuth, B.

    2014-11-01

    Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models serve as a powerful tool for describing the flow of energy through organisms from assimilation of food to utilization for maintenance, growth and reproduction. The DEB theory has been successfully applied to several bivalve species to compare bioenergetic and physiological strategies for the utilization of energy. In particular, mussels within the Mytilus edulis complex (M. edulis, M. galloprovincialis, and M. trossulus) have been the focus of many studies due to their economic and ecological importance, and their worldwide distribution. However, DEB parameter values have never been estimated for Mytilus californianus, a species that is an ecological dominant on rocky intertidal shores on the west coast of North America and which likely varies considerably from mussels in the M. edulis complex in its physiology. We estimated a set of DEB parameters for M. californianus using the covariation method estimation procedure and compared these to parameter values from other bivalve species. Model parameters were used to compare sensitivity to environmental variability among species, as a first examination of how strategies for physiologically contending with environmental change by M. californianus may differ from those of other bivalves. Results suggest that based on the parameter set obtained, M. californianus has favorable energetic strategies enabling it to contend with a range of environmental conditions. For instance, the allocation fraction of reserve to soma (κ) is among the highest of any bivalves, which is consistent with the observation that this species can survive over a wide range of environmental conditions, including prolonged periods of starvation.

  10. Grambling State University's Planning/Budgeting Model: An Integral Component of a Decision Support System. SAIR Conference Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lundy, Harold W.

    The development of a planning/budgeting model as an integral component of a decision support system is described. The case study approach is used to describe how Grambling State University (GSU) developed the model to improve its financial planning and budgeting processes. The model can be used for tactical and/or strategic planning. The model is…

  11. Exploring the effects of temperature and resource limitation on mercury bioaccumulation in Fundulus heteroclitus using dynamic energy budget modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory provides a generalizable and broadly applicable framework to connect sublethal toxic effects on individuals to changes in population survival and growth. To explore this approach, we conducted growth and bioaccumulation studies that contribute t...

  12. A multi-layer land surface energy budget model for implicit coupling with global atmospheric simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryder, J.; Polcher, J.; Peylin, P.; Ottlé, C.; Chen, Y.; van Gorsel, E.; Haverd, V.; McGrath, M. J.; Naudts, K.; Otto, J.; Valade, A.; Luyssaert, S.

    2014-12-01

    In Earth system modelling, a description of the energy budget of the vegetated surface layer is fundamental as it determines the meteorological conditions in the planetary boundary layer and as such contributes to the atmospheric conditions and its circulation. The energy budget in most Earth system models has long been based on a "big-leaf approach", with averaging schemes that represent in-canopy processes. Such models have difficulties in reproducing consistently the energy balance in field observations. We here outline a newly developed numerical model for energy budget simulation, as a component of the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems - CANopy). This new model implements techniques from single-site canopy models in a practical way. It includes representation of in-canopy transport, a multilayer longwave radiation budget, height-specific calculation of aerodynamic and stomatal conductance, and interaction with the bare soil flux within the canopy space. Significantly, it avoids iterations over the height of tha canopy and so maintains implicit coupling to the atmospheric model LMDz. As a first test, the model is evaluated against data from both an intensive measurement campaign and longer term eddy covariance measurements for the intensively studied Eucalyptus stand at Tumbarumba, Australia. The model performs well in replicating both diurnal and annual cycles of fluxes, as well as the gradients of sensible heat fluxes. However, the model overestimates sensible heat flux against an underestimate of the radiation budget. Improved performance is expected through the implementation of a more detailed calculation of stand albedo and a more up-to-date stomatal conductance calculation.

  13. Effects of activity and energy budget balancing algorithm on laboratory performance of a fish bioenergetics model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Madenjian, Charles P.; David, Solomon R.; Pothoven, Steven A.

    2012-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for lake trout Salvelinus namaycush that were fed ad libitum in laboratory tanks under regimes of low activity and high activity. In addition, we compared model performance under two different model algorithms: (1) balancing the lake trout energy budget on day t based on lake trout energy density on day t and (2) balancing the lake trout energy budget on day t based on lake trout energy density on day t + 1. Results indicated that the model significantly underestimated consumption for both inactive and active lake trout when algorithm 1 was used and that the degree of underestimation was similar for the two activity levels. In contrast, model performance substantially improved when using algorithm 2, as no detectable bias was found in model predictions of consumption for inactive fish and only a slight degree of overestimation was detected for active fish. The energy budget was accurately balanced by using algorithm 2 but not by using algorithm 1. Based on the results of this study, we recommend the use of algorithm 2 to estimate food consumption by fish in the field. Our study results highlight the importance of accurately accounting for changes in fish energy density when balancing the energy budget; furthermore, these results have implications for the science of evaluating fish bioenergetics model performance and for more accurate estimation of food consumption by fish in the field when fish energy density undergoes relatively rapid changes.

  14. Randomized Item Response Theory Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fox, Jean-Paul

    2005-01-01

    The randomized response (RR) technique is often used to obtain answers on sensitive questions. A new method is developed to measure latent variables using the RR technique because direct questioning leads to biased results. Within the RR technique is the probability of the true response modeled by an item response theory (IRT) model. The RR…

  15. Budgeting Based on Results: A Return-on-Investment Model Contributes to More Effective Annual Spending Choices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooper, Kelt L.

    2011-01-01

    One major problem in developing school district budgets immune to cuts is the model administrators traditionally use--an expenditure model. The simplicity of this model is seductive: What were the revenues and expenditures last year? What are the expected revenues and expenditures this year? A few adjustments here and there and one has a budget.…

  16. Surface Water and Energy Budgets for Sub-Saharan Africa in GFDL Coupled Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, D.; Wood, E. F.; Vecchi, G. A.; Jia, L.; Pan, M.

    2015-12-01

    This study compare surface water and energy budget variables from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) FLOR models with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Princeton University Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset (PGF), and PGF-driven Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model outputs, as well as available observations over the sub-Saharan Africa. The comparison was made for four configurations of the FLOR models that included FLOR phase 1 (FLOR-p1) and phase 2 (FLOR-p2) and two phases of flux adjusted versions (FLOR-FA-p1 and FLOR-FA-p2). Compared to p1, simulated atmospheric states in p2 were nudged to the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis. The seasonal cycle and annual mean of major surface water (precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and change of storage) and energy variables (sensible heat, ground heat, latent heat, net solar radiation, net longwave radiation, and skin temperature) over a 34-yr period during 1981-2014 were compared in different regions in sub-Saharan Africa (West Africa, East Africa, and Southern Africa). In addition to evaluating the means in three sub-regions, empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) analyses were conducted to compare both spatial and temporal characteristics of water and energy budget variables from four versions of GFDL FLOR, NCEP CFSR, PGF, and VIC outputs. This presentation will show how well each coupled climate model represented land surface physics and reproduced spatiotemporal characteristics of surface water and energy budget variables. We discuss what caused differences in surface water and energy budgets in land surface components of coupled climate model, climate reanalysis, and reanalysis driven land surface model. The comparisons will reveal whether flux adjustment and nudging would improve depiction of the surface water and energy budgets in coupled climate models.

  17. A Sediment Budget Case Study: Comparing Watershed Scale Erosion Estimates to Modeled and Empirical Sediment Loads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDavitt, B.; O'Connor, M.

    2003-12-01

    The Pacific Lumber Company Habitat Conservation Plan requires watershed analyses to be conducted on their property. This paper summarizes a portion of that analysis focusing on erosion and sedimentation processes and rates coupled with downstream sediment routing in the Freshwater Creek watershed in northwest California. Watershed scale erosion sources from hillslopes, roads, and channel banks were quantified using field surveys, aerial photo interpretation, and empirical modeling approaches for different elements of the study. Sediment transport rates for bedload were modeled, and sediment transport rates for suspended sediment were estimated based on size distribution of sediment inputs in relation to sizes transported in suspension. Recent short-term, high-quality estimates of suspended sediment yield that a community watershed group collected with technical assistance from the US Forest Service were used to validate the resulting sediment budget. Bedload yield data from an adjacent watershed, Jacoby Creek, provided another check on the sediment budget. The sediment budget techniques and bedload routing models used for this study generated sediment yield estimates that are in good agreement with available data. These results suggest that sediment budget techniques that require moderate levels of fieldwork can be used to provide relatively accurate technical assessments. Ongoing monitoring of sediment sources coupled with sediment routing models and reach scale field data allows for predictions to be made regarding in-channel sediment storage.

  18. A multi-layer land surface energy budget model for implicit coupling with global atmospheric simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryder, J.; Polcher, J.; Peylin, P.; Ottlé, C.; Chen, Y.; van Gorsel, E.; Haverd, V.; McGrath, M. J.; Naudts, K.; Otto, J.; Valade, A.; Luyssaert, S.

    2016-01-01

    In Earth system modelling, a description of the energy budget of the vegetated surface layer is fundamental as it determines the meteorological conditions in the planetary boundary layer and as such contributes to the atmospheric conditions and its circulation. The energy budget in most Earth system models has been based on a big-leaf approach, with averaging schemes that represent in-canopy processes. Furthermore, to be stable, that is to say, over large time steps and without large iterations, a surface layer model should be capable of implicit coupling to the atmospheric model. Surface models with large time steps, however, have difficulties in reproducing consistently the energy balance in field observations. Here we outline a newly developed numerical model for energy budget simulation, as a component of the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems - CANopy). This new model implements techniques from single-site canopy models in a practical way. It includes representation of in-canopy transport, a multi-layer long-wave radiation budget, height-specific calculation of aerodynamic and stomatal conductance, and interaction with the bare-soil flux within the canopy space. Significantly, it avoids iterations over the height of the canopy and so maintains implicit coupling to the atmospheric model LMDz (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Zoomed model). As a first test, the model is evaluated against data from both an intensive measurement campaign and longer-term eddy-covariance measurements for the intensively studied Eucalyptus stand at Tumbarumba, Australia. The model performs well in replicating both diurnal and annual cycles of energy and water fluxes, as well as the vertical gradients of temperature and of sensible heat fluxes.

  19. Theory of hadronic nonperturbative models

    SciTech Connect

    Coester, F.; Polyzou, W.N.

    1995-08-01

    As more data probing hadron structure become available hadron models based on nonperturbative relativistic dynamics will be increasingly important for their interpretation. Relativistic Hamiltonian dynamics of few-body systems (constituent-quark models) and many-body systems (parton models) provides a precisely defined approach and a useful phenomenology. However such models lack a quantitative foundation in quantum field theory. The specification of a quantum field theory by a Euclidean action provides a basis for the construction of nonperturbative models designed to maintain essential features of the field theory. For finite systems it is possible to satisfy axioms which guarantee the existence of a Hilbert space with a unitary representation of the Poincare group and the spectral condition which ensures that the spectrum of the four-momentum operator is in the forward light cone. The separate axiom which guarantees locality of the field operators can be weakened for the construction for few-body models. In this context we are investigating algebraic and analytic properties of model Schwinger functions. This approach promises insight into the relations between hadronic models based on relativistic Hamiltonian dynamics on one hand and Bethe-Salpeter Green`s-function equations on the other.

  20. Investigating model deficiencies in the global budget of ethane

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tzompa Sosa, Z. A.; Keller, C. A.; Turner, A. J.; Mahieu, E.; Franco, B.; Fischer, E. V.

    2015-12-01

    Many locations in the Northern Hemisphere show a statistically-significant sharp increase in measurements of ethane (C2H6) since 2009. It is hypothesized that the recent massive growth of shale gas exploitation in North America could be the source of this change. However, state-of-the-science chemical transport models are currently unable to reproduce the hemispheric burden of C2H6 or the recent sharp increase, pointing to a potential problem with current emission inventories. To resolve this, we used space-borne CH4 observations from the Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) to derive C2H6 emissions. By using known emission ratios to CH4, we estimated emissions of C2H6 from oil and gas activities, biofuels, and biomass burning over North America. The GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model was used to simulate atmospheric abundances of C2H6 with the new emissions estimates. The model is able to reproduce Northern Hemisphere surface concentrations. However, the model significantly under-predicts the amount of C2H6 throughout the column and the observed Northern Hemispheric gradient as diagnosed by comparisons to aircraft observations from the Hiaper Pole-to-Pole (HIPPO) Campaign.

  1. An Improved Heat Budget Estimation Including Bottom Effects for General Ocean Circulation Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carder, Kendall; Warrior, Hari; Otis, Daniel; Chen, R. F.

    2001-01-01

    This paper studies the effects of the underwater light field on heat-budget calculations of general ocean circulation models for shallow waters. The presence of a bottom significantly alters the estimated heat budget in shallow waters, which affects the corresponding thermal stratification and hence modifies the circulation. Based on the data collected during the COBOP field experiment near the Bahamas, we have used a one-dimensional turbulence closure model to show the influence of the bottom reflection and absorption on the sea surface temperature field. The water depth has an almost one-to-one correlation with the temperature rise. Effects of varying the bottom albedo by replacing the sea grass bed with a coral sand bottom, also has an appreciable effect on the heat budget of the shallow regions. We believe that the differences in the heat budget for the shallow areas will have an influence on the local circulation processes and especially on the evaporative and long-wave heat losses for these areas. The ultimate effects on humidity and cloudiness of the region are expected to be significant as well.

  2. The Closure of the Ocean Mixed Layer Temperature Budget using Level-Coordinate Model Fields

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Seung-Bum; Fukumori, Ichiro; Lee, Tong

    2005-01-01

    Entrainment is an important element of the mixed layer mass, heat, and temperature budgets. Conventional procedures to estimate entrainment heat advection often do not permit the closure of heat and temperature budgets because of inaccuracies in its formulation. In this study a rigorous approach to evaluate the effect of entrainment using the output of a general circulation model (GCM) that does not have an explicit prognostic mixed layer model is described. The integral elements of the evaluation are 1) the rigorous estimates of the temperature difference between mixed layer water and entrained water at each horizontal grid point, 2) the formulation of the temperature difference such that the budget closes over a volume greater than one horizontal grid point, and 3) the apparent warming of the mixed layer during the mixed layer shoaling to account for the weak vertical temperature gradient within the mixed layer. This evaluation of entrainment heat advection is compared with the estimates by other commonly used ad hoc formulations by applying them in three regions: the north-central Pacific, the Kuroshio Extension, and the Nino-3 areas in the tropical Pacific. In all three areas the imbalance in the mixed layer temperature budget by the ad hoc estimates is significant, reaching a maximum of about 4 K yr(exp -1).

  3. The effects of atmospheric chemistry on radiation budget in the Community Earth Systems Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Y.; Czader, B.; Diao, L.; Rodriguez, J.; Jeong, G.

    2013-12-01

    The Community Earth Systems Model (CESM)-Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) simulations were performed to study the impact of atmospheric chemistry on the radiation budget over the surface within a weather prediction time scale. The secondary goal is to get a simplified and optimized chemistry module for the short time period. Three different chemistry modules were utilized to represent tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, which differ in how their reactions and species are represented: (1) simplified tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry (approximately 30 species), (2) simplified tropospheric chemistry and comprehensive stratospheric chemistry from the Model of Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 3 (MOZART-3, approximately 60 species), and (3) comprehensive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry (MOZART-4, approximately 120 species). Our results indicate the different details in chemistry treatment from these model components affect the surface temperature and impact the radiation budget.

  4. Deconvolution estimation theory applied to Nimbus 6 ERB data. [Earth Radiation Budget

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, R. N.; Smith, G. L.

    1978-01-01

    It is pointed out that the ERB (Earth Radiation Budget) Experiment aboard the Nimbus 6 spacecraft has provided nearly 3 years of data thus far from its wide field of view (WFOV) radiometers. Each data point is an integral of the irradiance from all points within the field of view of the WFOV sensor, which is an approximately 60 deg diameter circular region on the earth. House (1972) proposed that the data, being a convolution of the flux field at the top of the atmosphere, could be convoluted so as to enhance the resolution. The problem was solved by Smith and Green (1975-76) for the case of earth emitted radiation. A parameter estimation approach to the deconvolution problem was formulated. A description is presented of the deconvolution estimation concept and the results obtained by its application to the Nimbus 6 ERB WFOV data for earth emitted radiation for August 1975.

  5. Water Budget Model for a Remnant of the Historic Northern Everglades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arceneaux, J. C.; Meselhe, E. A.; Habib, E.; Waldon, M. G.

    2006-12-01

    The Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge overlays an area termed Water Conservation Area 1 (WCA-1, a 143,000 acre (58,000 ha) freshwater wetland. It is a remnant of the northern Everglades in Palm Beach County, Florida, USA. Sheetflow that naturally would flow across the Refuge wetlands was disrupted in the 1950s and early 1960s by construction of stormwater pumps, and levees with associated borrow canals which hydraulically isolated the Refuge from its watershed. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services (USFWS) concludes that changes in the water quantity, timing, and quality have caused negative impacts to the Refuge ecosystem. It is a top priority of the Refuge to ensure appropriate management that will produce maximum benefits for fish and wildlife, while meeting flood control and water supply needs. Models can improve our understanding and support improvement in these management decisions. The development of a water budget for the Loxahatchee Refuge will provide one useful modeling tool in support of Refuge water management decisions. The water budget model reported here was developed as a double- box (2-compartment) model with a daily time step that predicts temporal variations of water level in the Refuge rim canal and interior marsh based on observed inflows, outflows, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. The water budget model was implemented using Microsoft EXCEL. The model calibration period was from January 1, 1995 to December 31, 1999; the validation period extended from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2004. Statistical analyses demonstrate the utility of this simple water budget model to predict the temporal variation of water levels in both the Refuge marsh and rim canal. The Refuge water budget model is currently being applied to evaluate various water management scenarios for the Refuge. Preliminary results modeling the mass balance of water quality constituents, including chloride, total phosphorus are encouraging. Success of this

  6. Analysis of Regional Budgets of Sulfur Species Modeled for the COSAM Exercise

    SciTech Connect

    Roelofs, G.-J.; Kasibhatla, P.; Barrie, Leonard A.; Bergmann, D.; Bridgeman, C.; Chin, M.; Christensen, J.; Easter, Richard C.; Feichter, J.; Jeuken, A.; Kjellstrom, E.; Koch, D.; Land, C.; Lohmann, U.; Rasch, P.

    2001-11-01

    The COSAM intercomparison exercise (comparison of large-scale sulfur models) was organized to compare and evaluate the performance of global sulfur cycle models. Eleven models participated, and from these models the simulated surface concentrations, vertical profiles and budget terms were submitted. This study focuses on simulated budget terms for the sources and sinks of SO2 and sulfate in three polluted regions in the Northern Hemisphere, i.e., eastern North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia. Qualitatively, features of the sulfur cycle are modeled quite consistently between models, such as the relative importance of dry deposition as a removal mechanism for SO2, the important of aqueous phase oxidation over gas phase oxidation for SO2, and the importance of wet over dry deposition for removal of sulfate aerosol. Quantitatively, however, models may show large differences, especially for cloud-related processes, i.e., aqueous phase oxidation of SO2 and sulfate wet deposition. In some cases a specific behavior can be related to the treatment of oxidants for aqueous phase SO2 oxidation, or the vertical resolution applied in models. Generally, however, the differences between models appear to be related to simulated cloud (micro-)physics and distributions, whereas differences in vertical transport efficiencies related to convection play an additional role. The estimated sulfur column burdens, lifetimes and export budgets vary between models by about a factor of 2 or 3. It can be expected that uncertainties in related effects which are derived from global sulfur model calculations, such as direct and indirect climate forcing estimates by sulfate aerosol, are at least of similar magnitude.

  7. Turbulence kinetic energy budget during the afternoon transition - Part 2: A simple TKE model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nilsson, Erik; Lothon, Marie; Lohou, Fabienne; Pardyjak, Eric; Hartogensis, Oscar; Darbieu, Clara

    2016-07-01

    A simple model for turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) and the TKE budget is presented for sheared convective atmospheric conditions based on observations from the Boundary Layer Late Afternoon and Sunset Turbulence (BLLAST) field campaign. It is based on an idealized mixed-layer approximation and a simplified near-surface TKE budget. In this model, the TKE is dependent on four budget terms (turbulent dissipation rate, buoyancy production, shear production and vertical transport of TKE) and only requires measurements of three available inputs (near-surface buoyancy flux, boundary layer depth and wind speed at one height in the surface layer) to predict vertical profiles of TKE and TKE budget terms.This simple model is shown to reproduce some of the observed variations between the different studied days in terms of near-surface TKE and its decay during the afternoon transition reasonably well. It is subsequently used to systematically study the effects of buoyancy and shear on TKE evolution using idealized constant and time-varying winds during the afternoon transition. From this, we conclude that many different TKE decay rates are possible under time-varying winds and that generalizing the decay with simple scaling laws for near-surface TKE of the form tα may be questionable.The model's errors result from the exclusion of processes such as elevated shear production and horizontal advection. The model also produces an overly rapid decay of shear production with height. However, the most influential budget terms governing near-surface TKE in the observed sheared convective boundary layers are included, while only second-order factors are neglected. Comparison between modeled and averaged observed estimates of dissipation rate illustrates that the overall behavior of the model is often quite reasonable. Therefore, we use the model to discuss the low-turbulence conditions that form first in the upper parts of the boundary layer during the afternoon transition and are only

  8. Estimation for Global Terrestrial Methane Budget Using A Coupled Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles Model VISIT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inatomi, M.; Ito, A.

    2008-12-01

    Land-atmosphere exchange of methane (CH4) can exert considerable feedback effects on the human- induced climatic change. However, there remain large uncertainties in our understanding and quantification of the regional CH4 budget, owing to complexity and heterogeneity of terrestrial ecosystems. A process- based model, Vegetation Integrative SImulator for Trace gases model (VISIT), was constructed by introducing nitrogen cycle and methane exchange processes into a carbon-cycle model Sim-CYCLE , which provides an observation-verified framework of ecosystem structure and carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange. In this study, VISIT was applied on the global scale to evaluate the net budget of CH4 over terrestrial ecosystems. The net budget of CH4 in terrestrial ecosystem is regulated by three different biogeochemical mechanisms: (1) CH4 oxidation at upland soils (i.e. forests, grassland, deserts, and croplands) estimated by NASA-CASA scheme, Ridgwell"fs scheme, DelGrosso"fs scheme and Curry"fs scheme; (2) CH4 emission from wetland including paddy field estimated by Cao"fs scheme; and (3) vegetation CH4 emission under aerobic condition (i.e. from tree and grass leaves) estimated by Kirschbaum"fs scheme. Using historical climate data of CRU-TS2.1 from 1901 to 2000 and AOGCM climate projections from 2001 to 2100, we simulated temporal and spatial patterns of net CH4 budget at 0.5-deg x 0.5-deg resolution under changing atmospheric composition, nitrogen deposition, climate, and land-use. As a result, total CH4 oxidation by upland soils in 2000 was estimated as 35.9 Tg CH4 per year (25.8-35.9 Tg CH4 per year by different schemes). Total CH4 emission from wetlands and paddy fields was estimated as 235.3 Tg CH4 per year. Vegetation CH4 emission under aerobic condition was also estimated as 91.8-137.4 Tg CH4 per year. Therefore, the net budget of CH4 for the global scale was estimated as 291.2-336.8 Tg CH4 per year in greenhouse-effect gas source to atmosphere. Preliminary results by

  9. Impact of land-surface elevation and riparian evapotranspiration seasonality on groundwater budget in MODFLOW models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ajami, Hoori; Meixner, Thomas; Maddock, Thomas; Hogan, James F.; Guertin, D. Phillip

    2011-09-01

    Riparian groundwater evapotranspiration (ETg) constitutes a major component of the water balance especially in many arid and semi-arid environments. Although spatial and temporal variability of riparian ETg are controlled by climate, vegetation and subsurface characteristics, depth to water table (DTWT) is often considered the major controlling factor. Relationships between ETg rates and DTWT, referred to as ETg curves, are implemented in MODFLOW ETg packages (EVT, ETS1 and RIP-ET) with different functional forms. Here, the sensitivity of the groundwater budget in MODFLOW groundwater models to ETg parameters (including ETg curves, land-surface elevation and ETg seasonality) are investigated. A MODFLOW model of the hypothetical Dry Alkaline Valley in the Southwestern USA is used to show how spatial representation of riparian vegetation and digital elevation model (DEM) processing methods impact the water budget when RIPGIS-NET (a GIS-based ETg program) is used with MODFLOW's RIP-ET package, and results are compared with the EVT and ETS1 packages. Results show considerable impact on ETg and other groundwater budget components caused by spatial representation of riparian vegetation, vegetation type, fractional coverage areas and land-surface elevation. RIPGIS-NET enhances ETg estimation in MODFLOW by incorporating vegetation and land-surface parameters, providing a tool for ecohydrology studies, riparian ecosystem management and stream restoration.

  10. The Ozone Budget in the Upper Troposphere from Global Modeling Initiative (GMI)Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodriquez, J.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Logan, Jennifer A.

    2006-01-01

    Ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere are influenced by in-situ production, long-range tropospheric transport, and influx of stratospheric ozone, as well as by photochemical removal. Since ozone is an important greenhouse gas in this region, it is particularly important to understand how it will respond to changes in anthropogenic emissions and changes in stratospheric ozone fluxes.. This response will be determined by the relative balance of the different production, loss and transport processes. Ozone concentrations calculated by models will differ depending on the adopted meteorological fields, their chemical scheme, anthropogenic emissions, and treatment of the stratospheric influx. We performed simulations using the chemical-transport model from the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) with meteorological fields from (It)h e NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM), (2) the atmospheric GCM from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office(GMAO), and (3) assimilated winds from GMAO . These simulations adopt the same chemical mechanism and emissions, and adopt the Synthetic Ozone (SYNOZ) approach for treating the influx of stratospheric ozone -. In addition, we also performed simulations for a coupled troposphere-stratosphere model with a subset of the same winds. Simulations were done for both 4degx5deg and 2degx2.5deg resolution. Model results are being tested through comparison with a suite of atmospheric observations. In this presentation, we diagnose the ozone budget in the upper troposphere utilizing the suite of GMI simulations, to address the sensitivity of this budget to: a) the different meteorological fields used; b) the adoption of the SYNOZ boundary condition versus inclusion of a full stratosphere; c) model horizontal resolution. Model results are compared to observations to determine biases in particular simulations; by examining these comparisons in conjunction with the derived budgets, we may pinpoint

  11. Export of NOy from the North American boundary layer: Reconciling aircraft observations and global model budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Qinbin; Jacob, Daniel J.; Munger, J. William; Yantosca, Robert M.; Parrish, David D.

    2004-01-01

    Fossil fuel combustion accounts for >50% of the global atmospheric emission of NOx, but this source is concentrated in the polluted continental boundary layer (CBL) and only a small fraction is exported as NOy (NOx and its oxidation products) to the global troposphere. Better quantification of this export efficiency is needed because of its implications for global tropospheric ozone. A recent Lagrangian analysis of the NOy-CO correlations observed from the North Atlantic Regional Experiment in September 1997 (NARE'97) aircraft campaign downwind of eastern North America (September 1997) indicated a NOy export efficiency of <10%, with <10% of the exported NOy present as NOx. In contrast, previous three-dimensional (3-D) model Eulerian budget analyses for the North American boundary layer indicated NOy export efficiencies of 25-30%, with 30-35% of the exported NOy present as NOx. We investigated this apparent discrepancy by simulating the NARE'97 aircraft observations with a global 3-D model of tropospheric chemistry (GEOS-CHEM) and using the model to calculate the NOy export efficiency both through a Lagrangian analysis of the NOy-CO correlations along the aircraft flight tracks and through an Eulerian budget analysis for the North American boundary layer. The model reproduces the variability and NOy-CO correlations observed in the aircraft data and also at the Harvard Forest surface site in the northeastern United States. We show that the previous Lagrangian analyses of the NOy export efficiency during NARE'97 were probably biased low because of underestimation of the CO background. Correcting for this bias, we find a NOy export efficiency of 17 ± 7% in the model and 15 ± 11% in the observations. A similar NOy export efficiency (20%) in the model is obtained from the Eulerian budget analysis, demonstrating that the Lagrangian and Eulerian approaches are in fact consistent. Export efficiencies of NOy in previous 3-D model Eulerian budget analyses were probably too

  12. Combining the benefits of decision science and financial analysis in public health management: a county-specific budgeting and planning model.

    PubMed

    Fos, Peter J; Miller, Danny L; Amy, Brian W; Zuniga, Miguel A

    2004-01-01

    State public health agencies are charged with providing and overseeing the management of basic public health services on a population-wide basis. These activities have a re-emphasized focus as a result of the events of September 11, 2001, the subsequent anthrax events, and the continuing importance placed on bioterrorism preparedness, West Nile virus, and emerging infectious diseases (eg, monkeypox, SARS). This has added to the tension that exists in budgeting and planning, given the diverse constituencies that are served in each state. State health agencies must be prepared to allocate finite resources in a more formal manner to be able to provide basic public health services on a routine basis, as well as during outbreaks. This article describes the use of an analytical approach to assist financial analysis that is used for budgeting and planning in a state health agency. The combined benefits of decision science and financial analysis are needed to adequately and appropriately plan and budget to meet the diverse needs of the populations within a state. Health and financial indicators are incorporated into a decision model, based on multicriteria decision theory, that has been employed to acquire information about counties and public health programs areas within a county, that reflect the impact of planning and budgeting efforts. This information can be used to allocate resources, to distribute funds for health care services, and to guide public health finance policy formulation and implementation. PMID:15552764

  13. Halo modelling in chameleon theories

    SciTech Connect

    Lombriser, Lucas; Koyama, Kazuya; Li, Baojiu E-mail: kazuya.koyama@port.ac.uk

    2014-03-01

    We analyse modelling techniques for the large-scale structure formed in scalar-tensor theories of constant Brans-Dicke parameter which match the concordance model background expansion history and produce a chameleon suppression of the gravitational modification in high-density regions. Thereby, we use a mass and environment dependent chameleon spherical collapse model, the Sheth-Tormen halo mass function and linear halo bias, the Navarro-Frenk-White halo density profile, and the halo model. Furthermore, using the spherical collapse model, we extrapolate a chameleon mass-concentration scaling relation from a ΛCDM prescription calibrated to N-body simulations. We also provide constraints on the model parameters to ensure viability on local scales. We test our description of the halo mass function and nonlinear matter power spectrum against the respective observables extracted from large-volume and high-resolution N-body simulations in the limiting case of f(R) gravity, corresponding to a vanishing Brans-Dicke parameter. We find good agreement between the two; the halo model provides a good qualitative description of the shape of the relative enhancement of the f(R) matter power spectrum with respect to ΛCDM caused by the extra attractive gravitational force but fails to recover the correct amplitude. Introducing an effective linear power spectrum in the computation of the two-halo term to account for an underestimation of the chameleon suppression at intermediate scales in our approach, we accurately reproduce the measurements from the N-body simulations.

  14. Stochastic models: theory and simulation.

    SciTech Connect

    Field, Richard V., Jr.

    2008-03-01

    Many problems in applied science and engineering involve physical phenomena that behave randomly in time and/or space. Examples are diverse and include turbulent flow over an aircraft wing, Earth climatology, material microstructure, and the financial markets. Mathematical models for these random phenomena are referred to as stochastic processes and/or random fields, and Monte Carlo simulation is the only general-purpose tool for solving problems of this type. The use of Monte Carlo simulation requires methods and algorithms to generate samples of the appropriate stochastic model; these samples then become inputs and/or boundary conditions to established deterministic simulation codes. While numerous algorithms and tools currently exist to generate samples of simple random variables and vectors, no cohesive simulation tool yet exists for generating samples of stochastic processes and/or random fields. There are two objectives of this report. First, we provide some theoretical background on stochastic processes and random fields that can be used to model phenomena that are random in space and/or time. Second, we provide simple algorithms that can be used to generate independent samples of general stochastic models. The theory and simulation of random variables and vectors is also reviewed for completeness.

  15. Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richardson, Mark; Cowtan, Kevin; Hawkins, Ed; Stolpe, Martin B.

    2016-10-01

    Climate risks increase with mean global temperature, so knowledge about the amount of future global warming should better inform risk assessments for policymakers. Expected near-term warming is encapsulated by the transient climate response (TCR), formally defined as the warming following 70 years of 1% per year increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, by which point atmospheric CO2 has doubled. Studies based on Earth's historical energy budget have typically estimated lower values of TCR than climate models, suggesting that some models could overestimate future warming. However, energy-budget estimates rely on historical temperature records that are geographically incomplete and blend air temperatures over land and sea ice with water temperatures over open oceans. We show that there is no evidence that climate models overestimate TCR when their output is processed in the same way as the HadCRUT4 observation-based temperature record. Models suggest that air-temperature warming is 24% greater than observed by HadCRUT4 over 1861-2009 because slower-warming regions are preferentially sampled and water warms less than air. Correcting for these biases and accounting for wider uncertainties in radiative forcing based on recent evidence, we infer an observation-based best estimate for TCR of 1.66 °C, with a 5-95% range of 1.0-3.3 °C, consistent with the climate models considered in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report.

  16. Earth radiation budget measurements from satellites and their interpretation for climate modeling and studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vonderhaar, T. H.; Stephens, G. L.; Campbell, G. G.

    1980-01-01

    The annual and seasonal averaged Earth atmosphere radiation budgets derived from the most complete set of satellite observations available are presented. The budgets were derived from a composite of 48 monthly mean radiation budget maps. Annually and seasonally averaged radiation budgets are presented as global averages and zonal averages. The geographic distribution of the various radiation budget quantities is described. The annual cycle of the radiation budget was analyzed and the annual variability of net flux was shown to be largely dominated by the regular semi and annual cycles forced by external Earth-Sun geometry variations. Radiative transfer calculations were compared to the observed budget quantities and surface budgets were additionally computed with particular emphasis on discrepancies that exist between the present computations and previous surface budget estimates.

  17. The Antarctic sea ice concentration budget of an ocean-sea ice coupled model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lecomte, Olivier; Goosse, Hugues; Fichefet, Thierry; Holland, Paul R.; Uotila, Petteri

    2015-04-01

    The Antarctic sea ice concentration budget of the NEMO-LIM ocean-sea ice coupled model is computed and analyzed. Following a previously developed method, the sea ice concentration balance over the autumn-winter seasons is decomposed into four terms, including the sea ice concentration change during the period of interest, advection, divergence and a residual accounting for the net contribution of thermodynamics and ice deformation. Preliminary results from this analysis show that the geographical patterns of all budget terms over 1992-2010 are in qualitative agreement with the observed ones. Sea ice thermodynamic growth is maintained by horizontal divergence near the continent and in the central ice pack, while melting close to the ice edge is led by sea ice advection. Quantitatively however, the inner ice pack divergence and associated sea ice freezing are much stronger, as compared to observations. The advection of sea ice in both the central pack and the marginal areas are likewise stronger, which corroborates the findings of a previous study in which the same methods were applied to a fully coupled climate model. Nonetheless, the seasonal evolution of sea ice area and total extent are reasonably well simulated, since enhanced sea ice freezing due to larger divergence in the central pack is compensated by intensified melting in the outer pack owing to faster advection. Those strong dynamic components in the sea ice concentration budget are due to ice velocities that tend to be biased high all around Antarctica and particularly near the ice edge. The obtained results show that the applied method is particularly well suited for assessing the skills of an ocean-sea ice coupled model in simulating the seasonal and regional evolution of Antarctic sea ice for the proper physical reasons.

  18. Impact of surface wind biases on the Antarctic sea ice concentration budget in climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lecomte, O.; Goosse, H.; Fichefet, T.; Holland, P. R.; Uotila, P.; Zunz, V.; Kimura, N.

    2016-09-01

    We derive the terms in the Antarctic sea ice concentration budget from the output of three models, and compare them to observations of the same terms. Those models include two climate models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and one ocean-sea ice coupled model with prescribed atmospheric forcing. Sea ice drift and wind fields from those models, in average over April-October 1992-2005, all exhibit large differences with the available observational or reanalysis datasets. However, the discrepancies between the two distinct ice drift products or the two wind reanalyses used here are sometimes even greater than those differences. Two major findings stand out from the analysis. Firstly, large biases in sea ice drift speed and direction in exterior sectors of the sea ice covered region tend to be systematic and consistent with those in winds. This suggests that sea ice errors in these areas are most likely wind-driven, so as errors in the simulated ice motion vectors. The systematic nature of these biases is less prominent in interior sectors, nearer the coast, where sea ice is mechanically constrained and its motion in response to the wind forcing more depending on the model rheology. Second, the intimate relationship between winds, sea ice drift and the sea ice concentration budget gives insight on ways to categorize models with regard to errors in their ice dynamics. In exterior regions, models with seemingly too weak winds and slow ice drift consistently yield a lack of ice velocity divergence and hence a wrong wintertime sea ice growth rate. In interior sectors, too slow ice drift, presumably originating from issues in the physical representation of sea ice dynamics as much as from errors in surface winds, leads to wrong timing of the late winter ice retreat. Those results illustrate that the applied methodology provides a valuable tool for prioritizing model improvements based on the ice concentration budget-ice drift biases-wind biases

  19. A Budget Impact Model for Paclitaxel-eluting Stent in Femoropopliteal Disease in France

    SciTech Connect

    De Cock, Erwin; Sapoval, Marc; Julia, Pierre; Lissovoy, Greg de; Lopes, Sandra

    2013-04-15

    The Zilver PTX drug-eluting stent (Cook Ireland Ltd., Limerick, Ireland) represents an advance in endovascular treatments for atherosclerotic superficial femoral artery (SFA) disease. Clinical data demonstrate improved clinical outcomes compared to bare-metal stents (BMS). This analysis assessed the likely impact on the French public health care budget of introducing reimbursement for the Zilver PTX stent. A model was developed in Microsoft Excel to estimate the impact of a progressive transition from BMS to Zilver PTX over a 5-year horizon. The number of patients undergoing SFA stenting was estimated on the basis of hospital episode data. The analysis from the payer perspective used French reimbursement tariffs. Target lesion revascularization (TLR) after primary stent placement was the primary outcome. TLR rates were based on 2-year data from the Zilver PTX single-arm study (6 and 9 %) and BMS rates reported in the literature (average 16 and 22 %) and extrapolated to 5 years. Net budget impact was expressed as the difference in total costs (primary stenting and reinterventions) for a scenario where BMS is progressively replaced by Zilver PTX compared to a scenario of BMS only. The model estimated a net cumulative 5-year budget reduction of Euro-Sign 6,807,202 for a projected population of 82,316 patients (21,361 receiving Zilver PTX). Base case results were confirmed in sensitivity analyses. Adoption of Zilver PTX could lead to important savings for the French public health care payer. Despite higher initial reimbursement for the Zilver PTX stent, fewer expected SFA reinterventions after the primary stenting procedure result in net savings.

  20. Budgeting Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hentschke, Guilbert C.; Shaughnessy, John

    1973-01-01

    Attempts to describe the budgeting process in school districts. Discusses general budget calendars and explains the process of constructing a Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) chart of the budgeting process. Presents a detailed list of activities to be included in the budgeting process and a PERT chart indicating how these activities…

  1. Impact of Parameterized Lee Wave Drag on the Energy Budget of an Eddying Global Ocean Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trossman, D. S.; Arbic, B. K.; Garner, S.; Goff, J. A.; Jayne, S. R.; Metzger, E.; Wallcraft, A.

    2012-12-01

    We examine the impact of a lee wave drag parameterization on an eddying global ocean model. The wave drag parameterization represents the the momentum transfer associated with the generation of lee waves arising from geostrophic flow impinging upon rough topography. It is included in the online model, thus ensuring that abyssal currents and stratification in the simulation are affected by the presence of the wave drag. The model utilized here is the nominally 1/12th degree Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) forced by winds and air-sea buoyancy fluxes. An energy budget including the parameterized wave drag, quadratic bottom boundary layer drag, vertical eddy viscosity, and horizontal eddy viscosity is diagnosed during the model runs and compared with the wind power input and buoyancy fluxes. Wave drag and vertical viscosity are the largest of the mechanical energy dissipation rate terms, each more than half of a terawatt when globally integrated. The sum of all four dissipative terms approximately balances the rate of energy put by the winds and buoyancy fluxes into the ocean. An ad hoc global enhancement of the bottom drag at each grid point by a constant factor cannot serve as a perfect substitute for wave drag, particularly where there is little wave drag. Eddy length scales at the surface, sea surface height variance, surface kinetic energy, and positions of intensified jets in the model are compared with those inferred from altimetric observations. Vertical profiles of kinetic energy from the model are compared with mooring observations to investigate whether the model is improved when wave drag is inserted.; The drag and viscosity terms in our energy budget [log_10(W m^-2)]: (a) quadratic bottom boundary layer drag, (b) parameterized internal lee wave drag, (c) vertical viscosity, and (d) "horizontal" viscosity. Shown is an average of inline estimates over one year of the spin-up phase with wave drag.

  2. Regional scale cropland carbon budgets: evaluating a geospatial agricultural modeling system using inventory data

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Xuesong; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Manowitz, David H.; Sahajpal, Ritvik; West, Tristram O.; Thomson, Allison M.; Xu, Min; Zhao, Kaiguang; LeDuc, Stephen D.; Williams, Jimmy R.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate quantification and clear understanding of regional scale cropland carbon (C) cycling is critical for designing effective policies and management practices that can contribute toward stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, extrapolating site-scale observations to regional scales represents a major challenge confronting the agricultural modeling community. This study introduces a novel geospatial agricultural modeling system (GAMS) exploring the integration of the mechanistic Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model, spatially-resolved data, surveyed management data, and supercomputing functions for cropland C budgets estimates. This modeling system creates spatially-explicit modeling units at a spatial resolution consistent with remotely-sensed crop identification and assigns cropping systems to each of them by geo-referencing surveyed crop management information at the county or state level. A parallel computing algorithm was also developed to facilitate the computationally intensive model runs and output post-processing and visualization. We evaluated GAMS against National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported crop yields and inventory estimated county-scale cropland C budgets averaged over 2000–2008. We observed good overall agreement, with spatial correlation of 0.89, 0.90, 0.41, and 0.87, for crop yields, Net Primary Production (NPP), Soil Organic C (SOC) change, and Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), respectively. However, we also detected notable differences in the magnitude of NPP and NEE, as well as in the spatial pattern of SOC change. By performing crop-specific annual comparisons, we discuss possible explanations for the discrepancies between GAMS and the inventory method, such as data requirements, representation of agroecosystem processes, completeness and accuracy of crop management data, and accuracy of crop area representation. Based on these analyses, we further discuss strategies to improve GAMS by updating input

  3. Developing integrated parametric planning models for budgeting and managing complex projects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Etnyre, Vance A.; Black, Ken U.

    1988-01-01

    The applicability of integrated parametric models for the budgeting and management of complex projects is investigated. Methods for building a very flexible, interactive prototype for a project planning system, and software resources available for this purpose, are discussed and evaluated. The prototype is required to be sensitive to changing objectives, changing target dates, changing costs relationships, and changing budget constraints. To achieve the integration of costs and project and task durations, parametric cost functions are defined by a process of trapezoidal segmentation, where the total cost for the project is the sum of the various project cost segments, and each project cost segment is the integral of a linearly segmented cost loading function over a specific interval. The cost can thus be expressed algebraically. The prototype was designed using Lotus-123 as the primary software tool. This prototype implements a methodology for interactive project scheduling that provides a model of a system that meets most of the goals for the first phase of the study and some of the goals for the second phase.

  4. The measurement of the earth's radiation budget as a problem in information theory - A tool for the rational design of earth observing systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barkstrom, B. R.

    1983-01-01

    The measurement of the earth's radiation budget has been chosen to illustrate the technique of objective system design. The measurement process is an approximately linear transformation of the original field of radiant exitances, so that linear statistical techniques may be employed. The combination of variability, measurement strategy, and error propagation is presently made with the help of information theory, as suggested by Kondratyev et al. (1975) and Peckham (1974). Covariance matrices furnish the quantitative statement of field variability.

  5. Galaxy Alignments: Theory, Modelling & Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiessling, Alina; Cacciato, Marcello; Joachimi, Benjamin; Kirk, Donnacha; Kitching, Thomas D.; Leonard, Adrienne; Mandelbaum, Rachel; Schäfer, Björn Malte; Sifón, Cristóbal; Brown, Michael L.; Rassat, Anais

    2015-11-01

    The shapes of galaxies are not randomly oriented on the sky. During the galaxy formation and evolution process, environment has a strong influence, as tidal gravitational fields in the large-scale structure tend to align nearby galaxies. Additionally, events such as galaxy mergers affect the relative alignments of both the shapes and angular momenta of galaxies throughout their history. These "intrinsic galaxy alignments" are known to exist, but are still poorly understood. This review will offer a pedagogical introduction to the current theories that describe intrinsic galaxy alignments, including the apparent difference in intrinsic alignment between early- and late-type galaxies and the latest efforts to model them analytically. It will then describe the ongoing efforts to simulate intrinsic alignments using both N-body and hydrodynamic simulations. Due to the relative youth of this field, there is still much to be done to understand intrinsic galaxy alignments and this review summarises the current state of the field, providing a solid basis for future work.

  6. Ozone Budgets from a Global Chemistry/Transport Model and Comparison to Observations from POLARIS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kawa, S. Randolph; Newman, P. A.; Douglass, A. R.; Weaver, C. J.; Gao, R.-S.; Salawitch, R. J.; Johnson, D. G.; Jucks, K. W.

    1998-01-01

    The objective of the Photochemistry of Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region in Summer (POLARIS) field mission was to obtain data to better characterize the summertime seasonal decrease of ozone at mid to high latitudes. The decrease in ozone occurs mainly in the lower stratosphere and is expected to result from in situ chemical destruction. Instrumented balloons and aircraft were used in POLARIS, along with satellites, to measure ozone and chemical species which are involved with stratospheric ozone chemistry. In order to close the seasonal ozone budget, however, ozone transport must also be estimated. Comparison to a global chemistry and transport model (CTM) of the stratosphere indicates how well the summertime ozone loss processes are simulated and thus how well we can predict the ozone response to changing amounts of chemical source gases. Moreover, the model gives insight into the possible relative magnitude of transport contributions to the seasonal ozone decline. Initial comparison to the Goddard CTM, which uses transport winds and temperatures from meteorological data assimilation, shows a high ozone bias in the model and an attenuated summertime ozone loss cycle. Comparison of the model chemical partitioning and ozone catalytic loss rates to those derived from measurements shows fairly close agreement both at ER-2 altitudes (20 km) and higher. This suggests that the model transport is too active in resupplying ozone to the high latitude region, although chemistry failings cannot be completely ruled out. Comparison of ozone and related species will be shown along with a full diagnosis of the model ozone budget and its possible sources of error.

  7. Ozone Budgets from a Global Chemistry/ Transport Model and Comparison to Observations from POLARIS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kawa, S. Randy

    1999-01-01

    The objective of the Photochemistry of Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region in Summer (POLARIS) field mission was to obtain data to better characterize the summertime seasonal decrease of ozone at mid to high latitudes. The decrease in ozone occurs mainly in the lower stratosphere and is expected to result from in situ chemical destruction. Instrumented balloons and aircraft were used in POLARIS, along with satellites, to measure ozone and chemical species which are involved with stratospheric ozone chemistry. In order to close the seasonal ozone budget, however, ozone transport must also be estimated. Comparison to a global chemistry and transport model (CTM) of the stratosphere indicates how well the summertime ozone loss processes are simulated and thus how well we can predict the ozone response to changing amounts of chemical source gases. Moreover, the model gives insight into the possible relative magnitude of transport contributions to the seasonal ozone decline. Initial comparison to the Goddard CTM, which uses transport winds and temperatures from meteorological data assimilation, shows a high ozone bias in the model and an attenuated summertime ozone loss cycle. Comparison of the model chemical partitioning, and ozone catalytic loss rates to those derived from measurements shows fairly close agreement both at ER-2 altitudes (20 km) and higher. This suggests that the model transport is too active in resupplying ozone to the high latitude region, although chemistry failings cannot be completely ruled out. Comparison of ozone and related species will be shown along with a full diagnosis of the model ozone budget and its possible sources of error.

  8. Models for the coupled Sr-sulfate budget in deep-sea carbonates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richter, Frank M.

    1996-06-01

    A numerical model for the Sr and sulfate budgets during deposition of deep-sea carbonate sediments was developed and used to fit porewater Sr 2+ and SO 42- data from DSDP Sites 593, 590, 574, 573, 572, 516, and 289. The Sr and sulfate budgets are coupled whenever the porewaters become saturated with respect to celestite (SrSO 4). Models for the porewater Sr and sulfate at Sites 593, 590, 516, and 289 suggest that porewater Sr concentrations are controlled by the precipitation of celestite and predict maximum celestite concentrations of the order of 0.02 wt% for sediments at Sites 593, 590, and 289, and trace amounts of celestite at Site 516. The actual amount of celestite predicted by the model is not well constrained because it depends on the as yet poorly known value of the equilibrium distribution coefficient for Sr between calcite and porewaters. The fact that celestite has been found in sediments from Sites 590 and 593 is used to derive an upper bound for the Sr distribution coefficient, that suggests that all laboratory determined values for the Sr distribution coefficient between calcite and porewater are too large. The occurrence of celestite at Sites 593, 590, 516, and 289 does not significantly change earlier estimates of the rates of solution-reprecipitation of calcite and its consequences in terms of shifting the Sr content or Sr isotopic composition of the bulk sediment from what the sediment incorporated when originally deposited. The sulfate data at Sites 593 and 590 are best fit by invoking a flow of porewater within the sediments of the order of 75 m/Ma. The Sr and sulfate concentrations in porewaters from Sites 572, 573, and 574 never reach celestite saturation and thus the two budgets are decoupled. Both the Sr and the sulfate data require that all three Sites have abundant unaltered seawater flowing in the underlying basement and can only be modeled if seawater concentrations of Sr and sulfate are imposed as boundary conditions at both the

  9. A water-budget model and estimates of groundwater recharge for Guam

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Adam G.

    2012-01-01

    On Guam, demand for groundwater tripled from the early 1970s to 2010. The demand for groundwater is anticipated to further increase in the near future because of population growth and a proposed military relocation to Guam. Uncertainty regarding the availability of groundwater resources to support the increased demand has prompted an investigation of groundwater recharge on Guam using the most current data and accepted methods. For this investigation, a daily water-budget model was developed and used to estimate mean recharge for various land-cover and rainfall conditions. Recharge was also estimated for part of the island using the chloride mass-balance method. Using the daily water-budget model, estimated mean annual recharge on Guam is 394.1 million gallons per day, which is 39 percent of mean annual rainfall (999.0 million gallons per day). Although minor in comparison to rainfall on the island, water inflows from water-main leakage, septic-system leachate, and stormwater runoff may be several times greater than rainfall at areas that receive these inflows. Recharge is highest in areas that are underlain by limestone, where recharge is typically between 40 and 60 percent of total water inflow. Recharge is relatively high in areas that receive stormwater runoff from storm-drain systems, but is relatively low in urbanized areas where stormwater runoff is routed to the ocean or to other areas. In most of the volcanic uplands in southern Guam where runoff is substantial, recharge is less than 30 percent of total water inflow. The water-budget model in this study differs from all previous water-budget investigations on Guam by directly accounting for canopy evaporation in forested areas, quantifying the evapotranspiration rate of each land-cover type, and accounting for evaporation from impervious areas. For the northern groundwater subbasins defined in Camp, Dresser & McKee Inc. (1982), mean annual baseline recharge computed in this study is 159.1 million gallons

  10. Modeling and characterization of the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) nonscanner and scanner sensors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halyo, Nesim; Pandey, Dhirendra K.; Taylor, Deborah B.

    1989-01-01

    The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) is making high-absolute-accuracy measurements of the reflected solar and Earth-emitted radiation as well as the incoming solar radiation from three satellites: ERBS, NOAA-9, and NOAA-10. Each satellite has four Earth-looking nonscanning radiometers and three scanning radiometers. A fifth nonscanner, the solar monitor, measures the incoming solar radiation. The development of the ERBE sensor characterization procedures are described using the calibration data for each of the Earth-looking nonscanners and scanners. Sensor models for the ERBE radiometers are developed including the radiative exchange, conductive heat flow, and electronics processing for transient and steady state conditions. The steady state models are used to interpret the sensor outputs, resulting in the data reduction algorithms for the ERBE instruments. Both ground calibration and flight calibration procedures are treated and analyzed. The ground and flight calibration coefficients for the data reduction algorithms are presented.

  11. Water-budget methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Healy, Richard W.; Scanlon, Bridget R.

    2010-01-01

    A water budget is an accounting of water movement into and out of, and storage change within, some control volume. Universal and adaptable are adjectives that reflect key features of water-budget methods for estimating recharge. The universal concept of mass conservation of water implies that water-budget methods are applicable over any space and time scales (Healy et al., 2007). The water budget of a soil column in a laboratory can be studied at scales of millimeters and seconds. A water-budget equation is also an integral component of atmospheric general circulation models used to predict global climates over periods of decades or more. Water-budget equations can be easily customized by adding or removing terms to accurately portray the peculiarities of any hydrologic system. The equations are generally not bound by assumptions on mechanisms by which water moves into, through, and out of the control volume of interest. So water-budget methods can be used to estimate both diffuse and focused recharge, and recharge estimates are unaffected by phenomena such as preferential flow paths within the unsaturated zone. Water-budget methods represent the largest class of techniques for estimating recharge. Most hydrologic models are derived from a water-budget equation and can therefore be classified as water-budget models. It is not feasible to address all water-budget methods in a single chapter. This chapter is limited to discussion of the “residual” water-budget approach, whereby all variables in a water-budget equation, except for recharge, are independently measured or estimated and recharge is set equal to the residual. This chapter is closely linked with Chapter 3, on modeling methods, because the equations presented here form the basis of many models and because models are often used to estimate individual components in water-budget studies. Water budgets for streams and other surface-water bodies are addressed in Chapter 4. The use of soil-water budgets and

  12. Modelling water and carbon budgets of tropical alpine regions with satellite rader data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buytaert, Wouter; Schumann, Guy; Worbe, Sébastien

    2010-05-01

    Tropical mountain areas provide crucial ecosystem services. They contain important surface water resources in the form of wetlands, which provide water for the surrounding lowlands. The highly organic soils, the result of the cold and wet conditions and low atmospheric oxygen content, are a major carbon sink. However, the water and carbon dynamics of these wetlands are very poorly known. The remote regions are difficult to access, and as a result, very few hydrological and soil data are available. In this study, remotely sensed Asymmetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) data from the ESA ENVISAT satellite are used to model the water and carbon balance of paramo wetlands in South Ecuador. After cleaning for topographical distortions using Principal Component Analysis, monthly ASAR images show significant correlation with local precipitation records. In combination with land cover classification based on Landsat images, the monthly dynamics of ASAR are used to identify hydrologically active zones in the wetland area. These hydrologically active zones are subsequently modelled using a carbon and water balance model constructed from local soil information. Using local field validation, it is shown that the ASAR data are successful in constraining the carbon and water balance model. An improvement in predicting the water and carbon budgets can be observed. The study shows that satellite radar data can be used to increase understanding of spatial and temporal dynamics of the water and carbon budgets of tropical alpine regions. This information is crucial for an adequate land and water management of the ecosystem, particularly in view of water supply and climate change mitigation.

  13. The Logic of the SIGGS Theory Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maccia, Elizabeth S.; Maccia, George S.

    This paper describes the SIGGS Theory Model as it applies to educational systems. This model, designed to simulate a wide variety of systems, uses sets (S), information (I), graph theory (G), and general systems (GS). The educational system is viewed as a set; in one example this set consists of teacher, student, curriculum, and setting. This…

  14. Development of a Dynamic Energy Budget Modeling Approach to Investigate the Effects of Temperature and Resource Limitation on Mercury Bioaccumulation in Fundulus Heteroclitus

    EPA Science Inventory

    Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory provides a generalizable and broadly applicable framework to connect sublethal toxic effects on individuals to changes in population persistence and growth. To explore this approach, we are conducting growth and bioaccumulation studies that cont...

  15. Development of a dynamic energy budget modeling approach to investigate the effects of temperature and resource limitation on mercury bioaccumulation in Fundulus heteroclitus.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory provides a generalizable and broadly applicable framework to connect sublethal toxic effects on individuals to changes in population survival and growth. To explore this approach, we are developing growth and bioaccumulation studies that contrib...

  16. Development of a dynamic energy budget modeling approach to investigate the effects of temperature and resource limitation on mercury bioaccumulation in Fundulus heteroclitus-presentation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory provides a generalizable and broadly applicable framework to connect sublethal toxic effects on individuals to changes in population survival and growth. To explore this approach, we are conducting growth and bioaccumulation studies that contrib...

  17. A photochemical modeling study of ozone and formaldehyde generation and budget in the Po basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, L.; Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Keller, J.; OrdóñEz, C.; Junkermann, W.; Hak, C.; Braathen, G. O.; Reimann, S.; Astorga-Llorens, C.; Schultz, M.; PréVôT, A. S. H.; Isaksen, I. S. A.

    2007-11-01

    In this work, a photochemical dispersion model, CAMx (Comprehensive Air quality Model with eXtensions) was used to simulate a high ozone episode observed in the Po basin during the 2003 FORMAT (Formaldehyde as a Tracer of Oxidation in the Troposphere) campaign. The study focuses on formaldehyde and ozone, and a budget analysis was set up for interpreting the importance of different processes, namely emission, chemistry, transport and deposition, for three different areas (urban, downwind, suburban) around the Milan metropolitan region. In addition, a sensitivity study was carried out based on 11 different VOC emission scenarios. The results of the budget study show that the strongest O3 production rate (4 ppbv/hour) occurs in the downwind area of the city of Milan, and that accumulated O3 is transported back to Milan city during nighttime. More than 80% of the HCHO concentration over the Milan metropolitan region is secondary, i.e., photochemically produced from other VOCs. The sensitivity study shows that the emissions of isoprene are not, on average, a controlling factor for the peak concentrations of O3 and HCHO over the model domain because of very few oak trees in this region. Although the paraffinic (PAR) emissions are fairly large, a 20% reduction of PAR yields only 1.7% of HCHO reduction and 2.7% reduction of the O3 peak. The largest reduction of O3 levels can be obtained by reduced xylene (XYL) emissions. A 20% reduction of the total anthropogenic VOC emissions leads to 15.5% (20.3 ppbv) reduction of O3 peak levels over the Milan metropolitan region.

  18. A coupled biogeochemical-Dynamic Energy Budget model as a tool for managing fish production ponds.

    PubMed

    Serpa, Dalila; Pousão-Ferreira, Pedro; Caetano, Miguel; Cancela da Fonseca, Luís; Dinis, Maria Teresa; Duarte, Pedro

    2013-10-01

    The sustainability of semi-intensive aquaculture relies on management practices that simultaneously improve production efficiency and minimize the environmental impacts of this activity. The purpose of the present work was to develop a mathematical model that reproduced the dynamics of a semi-intensive fish earth pond, to simulate different management scenarios for optimizing fish production. The modeling approach consisted of coupling a biogeochemical model that simulated the dynamics of the elements that are more likely to affect fish production and cause undesirable environmental impacts (nitrogen, phosphorus and oxygen) to a fish growth model based on the Dynamic Energy Budget approach. The biogeochemical sub-model successfully simulated most water column and sediment variables. A good model fit was also found between predicted and observed white seabream (Diplodus sargus) growth data over a production cycle. In order to optimize fish production, different management scenarios were analysed with the model (e.g. increase stocking densities, decrease/increase water exchange rates, decrease/increase feeding rates, decrease phosphorus content in fish feeds, increase food assimilation efficiency and decrease pellets sinking velocity) to test their effects on the pond environment as well as on fish yields and effluent nutrient discharges. Scenarios were quantitatively evaluated and compared using the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) methodology. The best management options that allow the maximization of fish production while maintaining a good pond environment and minimum impacts on the adjacent coastal system were to double standard stocking densities and to improve food assimilation efficiency.

  19. Water budget comparison of global climate models and experimental data in Onça Creek basin, Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melo, D. C. D.; Marin, I. S. P.; Wendland, E.

    2014-09-01

    Groundwater is an important part of the hydrological cycle, accounting for more than 25% of human needs on the global scale. As a result of aquifer overexploitation associated with climate change, even in the most conservative future climate scenarios, mean water-table levels can experience drastic drops. Although there are efforts to include groundwater dynamics in global climate models (GCMs), its influence is still not taken into full account in GCM water budgets, although it is as important as the other water sources considered. To assess the role of percolation in the water balance, we compared the water budget from climate forcing scenarios using 10 GCMs with the water budget from experimental data of a basin in São Paulo state, Brazil. We used the delta factor approach to correct the bias of the model's temperature and precipitation for a control period from 1970 to 1999, and calculated evapotranspiration using the Thornthwaite method. Experimental data for runoff and interception were derived for the basin's representative crops (sugar cane and pasture) for both water budgets. As the GCMs ignore subsurface flow and the only input considered is precipitation and snow melt, the excess surface water is assumed to be redistributed among the other water budget components. The experimental data shows that there is enough available water for infiltration, indicating that recharge cannot be ignored in the water balance. This leads to the possibility of the models' overestimating the other components to compensate for the ignored recharge.

  20. Towards a Theory of Conceptual Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thalheim, Bernhard

    Conceptual modelling is a widely applied practice and has led to a large body of knowledge on constructs that might be used for modelling and on methods that might be useful for modelling. It is commonly accepted that database application development is based on conceptual modelling. It is however surprising that only very few publications have been published on a theory of conceptual modelling.

  1. A water-budget model and estimates of groundwater recharge for Guam

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Adam G.

    2012-01-01

    On Guam, demand for groundwater tripled from the early 1970s to 2010. The demand for groundwater is anticipated to further increase in the near future because of population growth and a proposed military relocation to Guam. Uncertainty regarding the availability of groundwater resources to support the increased demand has prompted an investigation of groundwater recharge on Guam using the most current data and accepted methods. For this investigation, a daily water-budget model was developed and used to estimate mean recharge for various land-cover and rainfall conditions. Recharge was also estimated for part of the island using the chloride mass-balance method. Using the daily water-budget model, estimated mean annual recharge on Guam is 394.1 million gallons per day, which is 39 percent of mean annual rainfall (999.0 million gallons per day). Although minor in comparison to rainfall on the island, water inflows from water-main leakage, septic-system leachate, and stormwater runoff may be several times greater than rainfall at areas that receive these inflows. Recharge is highest in areas that are underlain by limestone, where recharge is typically between 40 and 60 percent of total water inflow. Recharge is relatively high in areas that receive stormwater runoff from storm-drain systems, but is relatively low in urbanized areas where stormwater runoff is routed to the ocean or to other areas. In most of the volcanic uplands in southern Guam where runoff is substantial, recharge is less than 30 percent of total water inflow. The water-budget model in this study differs from all previous water-budget investigations on Guam by directly accounting for canopy evaporation in forested areas, quantifying the evapotranspiration rate of each land-cover type, and accounting for evaporation from impervious areas. For the northern groundwater subbasins defined in Camp, Dresser & McKee Inc. (1982), mean annual baseline recharge computed in this study is 159.1 million gallons

  2. Modelling developmental changes in the carbon and nitrogen budgets of larval brachyuran crabs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anger, K.

    1990-03-01

    The uptake and partitioning of nutritional carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) were studied during the complete larval development of a brachyuran crab, Hyas araneus, reared under constant conditions in the laboratory. Biochemical and physiological data were published in a foregoing paper, and complete budgets of C and N were now constructed from these data. Regression equations describing rates of feeding ( F), growth ( G), respiration ( R), and ammonia excretion ( U) as functions of time during individual larval moult cycles were inserted in a simulation model, in order to analyse time-dependent (i.e. developmental) patterns of variation in these parameters as well as in bioenergetic efficiencies. Absolute daily feeding rates ( F; per individual) as well as carbon and nitrogen-specific rates ( F/C, F/N) are in general maximum in early, and minimum in late stages of individual larval moult cycles (postmoult and premoult, respectively). Early crab zoeae may ingest equivalents of up to ca 40% body C and 30% body N per day, respectively, whereas megalopa larvae usually eat less than 10%. Also growth rates ( G; G/C, G/N) reveal decreasing tendencies both during individual moult cycles and, on the average, in subsequent instars. Conversion of C and N data to lipid and protein, respectively, suggests that in all larval instars there is initially an increase in the lipid: protein ratio. Protein, however, remains clearly the predominant biochemical constituent in larval biomass. The absolute and specific values of respiration ( R; R/C) and excretion ( U; U/N) vary only little during the course of individual moult cycles. Thus, their significance in relation to G increases within the C and N budgets, and net growth efficiency ( K 2) decreases concurrently. Also gross growth and assimilation efficiency ( K 2; A/F) are, in general, maximum in early stages of the moult cycle (postmoult). Biochemical data suggest that lipid utilization efficiency is particularly high in early moult

  3. Stochastic repercussion of land-surface energy budget noise onto a coupled land-atmosphere model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gentine, P.; Entekhabi, D.; Schertzer, E.; Polcher, J.

    2009-04-01

    The present study is based on the work first introduced by Lettau (1951): in this paper Lettau analytically studied the response of a linearized land-atmosphere model to a sinusoidal forcing of net radiation at the land-surface. The model has been first improved to obtain the analytical solution of the temperature and heat flux profiles in the soil and in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) in response to any daily forcing of incoming radiation at the land-surface. With this model, the profiles of temperature and heat are expressed in terms of temporal Fourier series. Moreover the surface variables (temperature, specific humidity, surface fluxes) are also derived analytically and their diurnal course is expressed as a function of both surface parameters (friction velocity, vegetation height, aerodynamic resistance, stomatal conductance). In this presentation, we further extend the application of this theoretical model to the study of the error in the land-surface energy budget closure. This closure error could result form either modeling or experimental inaccuracies, leading to incorrect energy partitioning at the land-surface. In particular, the response of the coupled land-atmosphere model to the land-surface energy error is investigated. This noise in the energy budget is introduced in the form of a stochastic Brownian Bridge, which is a Brownian Motion conditioned to vanish at 0h and 24h. First the impact of land-surface noise on the partitioning of land-surface energy partitioning is examined. Moreover the influence of the land-surface noise on Land Surface Temperature and air temperature is carefully analyzed, as it is fundamental for the use of data assimilation in conjunction with land-surface models. Finally, the repercussion of the surface noise in the ABL and the soil is analytically found and its temporal and spatial dependency is studied. In particular, the correlation between the land-surface state and the ABL state is further investigated. These

  4. Spatiotemporal Variability of the Urban Water Budget and Implications for Distributed Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhaskar, A. S.; Welty, C.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2011-12-01

    In seeking to understand the feedbacks between urban development and water availability, we are in the process of coupling an integrated hydrologic model with an urban growth model, both of the Baltimore, Maryland, USA region. We are implementing ParFlow.CLM as the integrated hydrologic model (a subsurface-surface flow/land surface processes model) for the 13,000 sq km Baltimore metropolitan area. This work requires an understanding of the distribution of flows and making decisions on how to best model the short-circuiting of water and other phenomena unique to urban systems. In order to assess the attributes of available data, we conducted a study of the urban water budget from 2000 to 2009 and across an urban to rural gradient of development. For 65 watersheds in the Baltimore metropolitan area we quantified both natural (precipitation, evapotranspiration and streamflow) and engineered or piped (wastewater infiltration and inflow, lawn irrigation, water supply pipe leakage and reservoir withdrawals) water budget components on a monthly basis. We used monthly PRISM grids for precipitation, the land surface model GLDAS- Noah for gridded evapotranspiration estimates and streamflow from USGS gage records. For piped components, we used Baltimore City's comprehensive wastewater monitoring program data, which has infiltration and inflow estimates for most of the city's sewer basins, as well as estimates of lawn irrigation from fine-scale land cover data and lawn watering estimates, and water supply pipe leakage based on system wide values and the distribution of water supply pipes. We found that when solely considering natural components, urban watersheds generally appeared to have excess water, although the spatial variability was much higher for urban watersheds as compared to rural ones. This apparent excess water was more than accounted for by the most significant piped component, the export of groundwater and rainwater by cracks and improper connections to the

  5. An approach for modeling sediment budgets in supply-limited rivers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wright, Scott A.; Topping, David J.; Rubin, David M.; Melis, Theodore S.

    2010-01-01

    Reliable predictions of sediment transport and river morphology in response to variations in natural and human-induced drivers are necessary for river engineering and management. Because engineering and management applications may span a wide range of space and time scales, a broad spectrum of modeling approaches has been developed, ranging from suspended-sediment "rating curves" to complex three-dimensional morphodynamic models. Suspended sediment rating curves are an attractive approach for evaluating changes in multi-year sediment budgets resulting from changes in flow regimes because they are simple to implement, computationally efficient, and the empirical parameters can be estimated from quantities that are commonly measured in the field (i.e., suspended sediment concentration and water discharge). However, the standard rating curve approach assumes a unique suspended sediment concentration for a given water discharge. This assumption is not valid in rivers where sediment supply varies enough to cause changes in particle size or changes in areal coverage of sediment on the bed; both of these changes cause variations in suspended sediment concentration for a given water discharge. More complex numerical models of hydraulics and morphodynamics have been developed to address such physical changes of the bed. This additional complexity comes at a cost in terms of computations as well as the type and amount of data required for model setup, calibration, and testing. Moreover, application of the resulting sediment-transport models may require observations of bed-sediment boundary conditions that require extensive (and expensive) observations or, alternatively, require the use of an additional model (subject to its own errors) merely to predict the bed-sediment boundary conditions for use by the transport model. In this paper we present a hybrid approach that combines aspects of the rating curve method and the more complex morphodynamic models. Our primary objective

  6. An approach for modeling sediment budgets in supply-limited rivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, Scott A.; Topping, David J.; Rubin, David M.; Melis, Theodore S.

    2010-10-01

    Reliable predictions of sediment transport and river morphology in response to variations in natural and human-induced drivers are necessary for river engineering and management. Because engineering and management applications may span a wide range of space and time scales, a broad spectrum of modeling approaches has been developed, ranging from suspended-sediment "rating curves" to complex three-dimensional morphodynamic models. Suspended sediment rating curves are an attractive approach for evaluating changes in multi-year sediment budgets resulting from changes in flow regimes because they are simple to implement, computationally efficient, and the empirical parameters can be estimated from quantities that are commonly measured in the field (i.e., suspended sediment concentration and water discharge). However, the standard rating curve approach assumes a unique suspended sediment concentration for a given water discharge. This assumption is not valid in rivers where sediment supply varies enough to cause changes in particle size or changes in areal coverage of sediment on the bed; both of these changes cause variations in suspended sediment concentration for a given water discharge. More complex numerical models of hydraulics and morphodynamics have been developed to address such physical changes of the bed. This additional complexity comes at a cost in terms of computations as well as the type and amount of data required for model setup, calibration, and testing. Moreover, application of the resulting sediment-transport models may require observations of bed-sediment boundary conditions that require extensive (and expensive) observations or, alternatively, require the use of an additional model (subject to its own errors) merely to predict the bed-sediment boundary conditions for use by the transport model. In this paper we present a hybrid approach that combines aspects of the rating curve method and the more complex morphodynamic models. Our primary objective

  7. Growth of cockles ( Cerastoderma edule) in the Oosterschelde described by a Dynamic Energy Budget model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wijsman, Johannes W. M.; Smaal, Aad C.

    2011-11-01

    A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for cockles is presented and calibrated using detailed data on cockle growth and water quality in the Oosterschelde. Cockles in the intertidal areas of the Oosterschelde have an important function as a food source for wading birds and as such for the natural values of the ecosystem. In the presented model, special attention is paid to the formulation and parameter estimation of the functional response. With this functional response, the food quantity and quality variables such as Chlorophyll- a, POM, POC and TPM are translated into food ingestion rate for the cockles. The calibration of the specific parameters included in this functional response is done using a detailed, long term dataset (1992-2007) of cockle growth in the Oosterschelde estuary. This dataset gives a good overview of the development of the cockle population in relation to the environmental conditions (food availability and ambient temperature). The DEB model was able to describe the spatial variation in cockle growth in the Oosterschelde as a function of environmental conditions and the parameters of the functional response. Both the data and the model show that growth performance of cockles is highest in the western and central part of the Oosterschelde due to the higher concentrations of Chlorophyll- a, which is an important food source for cockles. The model failed to describe the large variation in ash-free dry weight during the season. It is tested whether this is caused by aggregating the data by running the model for the full life cycle of year class 2001 at a specific location in the western part of the Oosterschelde. Finally, the model simulations have been compared to growth simulations obtained with an existing ecophysiological model for cockles in the Oosterschelde, the COCO model, with identical forcing. The COCO model showed higher growth in terms of shell length compared to the DEB model and the field observations.

  8. Advanced Modeling Techniques to Study Anthropogenic Influences on Atmospheric Chemical Budgets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mathur, Rohit

    1997-01-01

    This research work is a collaborative effort between research groups at MCNC and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. The overall objective of this research is to improve the level of understanding of the processes that determine the budgets of chemically and radiatively active compounds in the atmosphere through development and application of advanced methods for calculating the chemical change in atmospheric models. The research performed during the second year of this project focused on four major aspects: (1) The continued development and refinement of multiscale modeling techniques to address the issue of the disparate scales of the physico-chemical processes that govern the fate of atmospheric pollutants; (2) Development and application of analysis methods utilizing process and mass balance techniques to increase the interpretive powers of atmospheric models and to aid in complementary analysis of model predictions and observations; (3) Development of meteorological and emission inputs for initial application of the chemistry/transport model over the north Atlantic region; and, (4) The continued development and implementation of a totally new adaptive chemistry representation that changes the details of what is represented as the underlying conditions change.

  9. A Stochastic Model For Extracting Sediment Delivery Timescales From Sediment Budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pizzuto, J. E.; Benthem, A.; Karwan, D. L.; Keeler, J. J.; Skalak, K.

    2015-12-01

    Watershed managers need to quantify sediment storage and delivery timescales to understand the time required for best management practices to improve downstream water quality. To address this need, we route sediment downstream using a random walk through a series of valley compartments spaced at 1 km intervals. The probability of storage within each compartment, q, is specified from a sediment budget and is defined as the ratio of the volume deposited to the annual sediment flux. Within each compartment, the probability of sediment moving directly downstream without being stored is p=1-q. If sediment is stored within a compartment, its "resting time" is specified by a stochastic exponential waiting time distribution with a mean of 10 years. After a particle's waiting time is over, it moves downstream to the next compartment by fluvial transport. Over a distance of "n" compartments, a sediment particle may be stored from 0 to n times with the probability of each outcome (store or not store) specified by the binomial distribution. We assign q = 0.02, a stream velocity of 0.5 m/s, an event "intermittency "of 0.01, and assume a balanced sediment budget. Travel time probability density functions have a steep peak at the shortest times, representing rapid transport in the channel of the fraction of sediment that moves downstream without being stored. However, the probability of moving downstream "n" km without storage is pn (0.90 for 5 km, 0.36 for 50 km, 0.006 for 250 km), so travel times are increasingly dominated by storage with increasing distance. Median travel times for 5, 50, and 250 km are 0.03, 4.4, and 46.5 years. After a distance of approximately 2/q or 100 km (2/0.02/km), the median travel time is determined by storage timescales, and active fluvial transport is irrelevant. Our model extracts travel time statistics from sediment budgets, and can be cast as a differential equation and solved numerically for more complex systems.

  10. Precipitation recycling in West Africa - regional modeling, evaporation tagging and atmospheric water budget analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnault, Joel; Kunstmann, Harald; Knoche, Hans-Richard

    2015-04-01

    Many numerical studies have shown that the West African monsoon is highly sensitive to the state of the land surface. It is however questionable to which extend a local change of land surface properties would affect the local climate, especially with respect to precipitation. This issue is traditionally addressed with the concept of precipitation recycling, defined as the contribution of local surface evaporation to local precipitation. For this study the West African monsoon has been simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using explicit convection, for the domain (1°S-21°N, 18°W-14°E) at a spatial resolution of 10 km, for the period January-October 2013, and using ERA-Interim reanalyses as driving data. This WRF configuration has been selected for its ability to simulate monthly precipitation amounts and daily histograms close to TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data. In order to investigate precipitation recycling in this WRF simulation, surface evaporation tagging has been implemented in the WRF source code as well as the budget of total and tagged atmospheric water. Surface evaporation tagging consists in duplicating all water species and the respective prognostic equations in the source code. Then, tagged water species are set to zero at the lateral boundaries of the simulated domain (no inflow of tagged water vapor), and tagged surface evaporation is considered only in a specified region. All the source terms of the prognostic equations of total and tagged water species are finally saved in the outputs for the budget analysis. This allows quantifying the respective contribution of total and tagged atmospheric water to atmospheric precipitation processes. The WRF simulation with surface evaporation tagging and budgets has been conducted two times, first with a 100 km2 tagged region (11-12°N, 1-2°W), and second with a 1000 km2 tagged region (7-16°N, 6°W -3°E). In this presentation we will investigate hydro

  11. Modelling Long-Term Changes of the Heat Budget and Chemistry near the Mesopause

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chabrillat, S.; Brasseur, G.; Fonteyn, D.

    Modelling studies have evaluated that the standard scenario of doubling CO2 has an important impact on the radiative budget of the mesosphere/lower thermosphere region (MLT) and could induce temperature changes comparable in magnitude to the effect of the 11-year solar cycle. Long-term observations of stratospheric water vapor and methane exhibit trends which should also influence the MLT. This effect is difficult to evaluate, because these trends in H2 O and CH4 can not be explained by current models of the middle atmosphere. Using SOCRATES, an interactive 2 D- model extending from the surface to the lower thermosphere, we study the sensitivity of the MLT region to each of these changes (CO2 , CH4 , H2 O, solar cycle) and to their combined effects.The focus is on the mesopause level, which coincides with a secondary maximum in ozone abundance. In order to quantify the transient response of the MLT to these changes, we run very long (100-year) simulations with long-term trends of the natural and anthropogenic forcings. D e to the currentu limitations in middle atmosphere modelling, we suppose that the dynamical forcing due to wave breaking remains constant from year to year, and we use stratospheric abundances of methane and water vapor based on observations. We discuss the estimated long-term change in ozone, heating and temperature at the mesopause, paying special attention to the trends at summer solstice and to the variations in the annual amplitudes of the seasonal cycles.

  12. Quantifying the impact of model uncertainties on chemical budgets in trans-Atlantic pollution transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ridley, D. A.; Arnold, S. R.

    2009-12-01

    Chemical transport models rely upon parameterised gas-phase reaction and photolysis rates, based on data from laboratory studies. These data have associated uncertanties that may impact upon the prediction of the concentrations of key species, such as O3, OH and nitrogen oxides. A unique set of linked aircraft observations in single air masses from the ICARTT (International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation) pseudo-Lagrangian experiment allow the isolation of chemical change from transport. We exploit this to investigate the impact of chemical model uncertainties on tropospheric photochemistry in plumes undergoing long-range transport. The aim is to characterise key process which contribute to large uncertainty in oxidant budgets, and identify rates and processes that are a priority for better quantification in the lab. The impact of uncertainties in bimolecular and termolecular rates has been investigated using a tropospheric trajectory chemical transport model (CiTTyCAT) and linked aircraft observations for both anthropogenic polluted and biomass burning air masses. A Monte-Carlo methodology is used to sample the parameter space and ensembles of several thousand model runs generated to provide a firm statistical basis for analysis. Initial results show that uncertainty in ozone concentration is approximately +/-10ppb as a result of the uncertainty in bimolecular and termolecular reaction rates. We will present quantification of the key reaction rates that cause the large uncertainty in ozone photochemistry.

  13. Internal variability of Earth’s energy budget simulated by CMIP5 climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palmer, M. D.; McNeall, D. J.

    2014-03-01

    We analyse a large number of multi-century pre-industrial control simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to investigate relationships between: net top-of-atmosphere radiation (TOA), globally averaged surface temperature (GST), and globally integrated ocean heat content (OHC) on decadal timescales. Consistent with previous studies, we find that large trends (˜0.3 K dec-1) in GST can arise from internal climate variability and that these trends are generally an unreliable indicator of TOA over the same period. In contrast, trends in total OHC explain 95% or more of the variance in TOA for two-thirds of the models analysed; emphasizing the oceans’ role as Earth’s primary energy store. Correlation of trends in total system energy (TE ≡ time integrated TOA) against trends in OHC suggests that for most models the ocean becomes the dominant term in the planetary energy budget on a timescale of about 12 months. In the context of the recent pause in global surface temperature rise, we investigate the potential importance of internal climate variability in both TOA and ocean heat rearrangement. The model simulations suggest that both factors can account for O (0.1 W m-2) on decadal timescales and may play an important role in the recently observed trends in GST and 0-700 m (and 0-1800 m) ocean heat uptake.

  14. Crisis in Context Theory: An Ecological Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Myer, Rick A.; Moore, Holly B.

    2006-01-01

    This article outlines a theory for understanding the impact of a crisis on individuals and organizations. Crisis in context theory (CCT) is grounded in an ecological model and based on literature in the field of crisis intervention and on personal experiences of the authors. A graphic representation denotes key components and premises of CCT,…

  15. Modeling long-term, large-scale sediment storage using a simple sediment budget approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naipal, Victoria; Reick, Christian; Van Oost, Kristof; Hoffmann, Thomas; Pongratz, Julia

    2016-05-01

    Currently, the anthropogenic perturbation of the biogeochemical cycles remains unquantified due to the poor representation of lateral fluxes of carbon and nutrients in Earth system models (ESMs). This lateral transport of carbon and nutrients between terrestrial ecosystems is strongly affected by accelerated soil erosion rates. However, the quantification of global soil erosion by rainfall and runoff, and the resulting redistribution is missing. This study aims at developing new tools and methods to estimate global soil erosion and redistribution by presenting and evaluating a new large-scale coarse-resolution sediment budget model that is compatible with ESMs. This model can simulate spatial patterns and long-term trends of soil redistribution in floodplains and on hillslopes, resulting from external forces such as climate and land use change. We applied the model to the Rhine catchment using climate and land cover data from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for the last millennium (here AD 850-2005). Validation is done using observed Holocene sediment storage data and observed scaling between sediment storage and catchment area. We find that the model reproduces the spatial distribution of floodplain sediment storage and the scaling behavior for floodplains and hillslopes as found in observations. After analyzing the dependence of the scaling behavior on the main parameters of the model, we argue that the scaling is an emergent feature of the model and mainly dependent on the underlying topography. Furthermore, we find that land use change is the main contributor to the change in sediment storage in the Rhine catchment during the last millennium. Land use change also explains most of the temporal variability in sediment storage in floodplains and on hillslopes.

  16. From Dreams to Dollars: Joining the Theory of Planning with the Practicality of Budget to Maximize Both

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dorsey, Myrtle E. B.

    2008-01-01

    The integrated online planning and budget development system at Baton Rouge Community College is an innovative approach to systematically link college strategic priorities and unit plan objectives with financial resources. Using two industry standards (Microsoft Access and Sungard Banner), a user-friendly program was developed that has facilitated…

  17. Use of a process-based model for assessing the methane budgets of global terrestrial ecosystems and evaluation of uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, A.; Inatomi, M.

    2012-02-01

    We assessed the global terrestrial budget of methane (CH4) by using a process-based biogeochemical model (VISIT) and inventory data for components of the budget that were not included in the model. Emissions from wetlands, paddy fields, biomass burning, and plants, as well as oxidative consumption by upland soils, were simulated by the model. Emissions from ruminant livestock and termites were evaluated by using an inventory approach. These CH4 flows were estimated for each of the model's 0.5° × 0.5° grid cells from 1901 to 2009, while accounting for atmospheric composition, meteorological factors, and land-use changes. Estimation uncertainties were examined through ensemble simulations using different parameterization schemes and input data (e.g., different wetland maps and emission factors). From 1996 to 2005, the average global terrestrial CH4 budget was estimated on the basis of 1152 simulations, and terrestrial ecosystems were found to be a net source of 308.3 ± 20.7 Tg CH4 yr-1. Wetland and livestock ruminant emissions were the primary sources. The results of our simulations indicate that sources and sinks are distributed highly heterogeneously over the Earth's land surface. Seasonal and interannual variability in the terrestrial budget was also assessed. The trend of increasing net emission from terrestrial sources and its relationship with temperature variability imply that terrestrial CH4 feedbacks will play an increasingly important role as a result of future climatic change.

  18. The Legacy of Rational Budgeting Models in Education and a Proposal for the Future. Project Report No. 83-A21.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brackett, John; And Others

    This paper represents a backdrop from which to consider the development of a planning and budgeting model for local education agencies. The first part of the presentation describes the demands and external pressures that affect resource allocation decisions in school districts. The ability of local school officials to link the cost consequences…

  19. Boundary Layer Vertical Exchange Processes and the Mass Budget of Ozone: Observations and Model Results

    SciTech Connect

    Berkowitz, Carl M.; Fast, Jerome D.; Easter, Richard C.

    2000-06-16

    An Eulerian chemical model is used to assess the relative importance of a variety of processes associated with producing high surface ozone episodes during selected periods of the NARSTO 1995 field campaign over the northeastern United States. A comparison of the observed and predicted hourly surface ozone mixing ratios showed that the model qualitatively reproduced the observed ozone trends over the northeastern U.S. The model, however, over-predicted the surface concentrations by 10 to 15 ppb. The simulated mass budget tendency terms are compared for days with low ozone values immediately followed by days with high values. The later days showed observed and simulated ozone mixing ratios aloft to be of order twice that found on preceding days, although the associated chemical mix appeared to have relatively little potential for the subsequent generation of "new" ozone. Under conditions of shallow mixing over urban regions, simulated surface ozone production rates were negative (a net loss) throughout much of the day with convective mixing bringing newly produced ozone from aloft to the surface. It is noted that surface ozone levels appeared to be relatively insensitive to mixing layer growth rates.

  20. Comparison of land nitrogen budgets for European agriculture by various modeling approaches.

    PubMed

    de Vries, W; Leip, A; Reinds, G J; Kros, J; Lesschen, J P; Bouwman, A F

    2011-11-01

    A comparison of nitrogen (N) budgets for the year 2000 of agro-ecosystems is made for the EU 27 countries by four models with different complexity and data requirements, i.e. INTEGRATOR, IDEAg, MITERRA and IMAGE. The models estimate a comparable total N input in European agriculture, i.e. 23.3-25.7 Mton N yr(-1), but N uptake varies more, i.e. from 11.3 to 15.4 Mton N yr(-1) leading to total N surpluses varying from 10.4 to 13.2 Mton N yr(-1). The estimated overall variation at EU 27 is small for the emissions of ammonia (2.8-3.1 Mton N yr(-1)) and nitrous oxide (0.33-0.43 Mton N yr(-1)), but large for the sum of N leaching and runoff (2.7-6.3 Mton N yr(-1)). Unlike the overall EU estimates, the difference in N output fluxes between models is large at regional scale. This is mainly determined by N inputs, differences being highest in areas with high livestock density.

  1. Metaphor, Model, and Theory in Education Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dickmeyer, Nathan

    1989-01-01

    The concepts of metaphor, model, and theory are defined and used to show how social science research in general, and education research in particular, has differed from Popper's description of natural science research. (IAH)

  2. The AquaDEB project: Physiological flexibility of aquatic animals analysed with a generic dynamic energy budget model (phase II)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alunno-Bruscia, Marianne; van der Veer, Henk W.; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.

    2011-11-01

    This second special issue of the Journal of Sea Research on development and applications of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory concludes the European Research Project AquaDEB (2007-2011). In this introductory paper we summarise the progress made during the running time of this 5 years' project, present context for the papers in this volume and discuss future directions. The main scientific objectives in AquaDEB were (i) to study and compare the sensitivity of aquatic species (mainly molluscs and fish) to environmental variability within the context of DEB theory for metabolic organisation, and (ii) to evaluate the inter-relationships between different biological levels (individual, population, ecosystem) and temporal scales (life cycle, population dynamics, evolution). AquaDEB phase I focussed on quantifying bio-energetic processes of various aquatic species ( e.g. molluscs, fish, crustaceans, algae) and phase II on: (i) comparing of energetic and physiological strategies among species through the DEB parameter values and identifying the factors responsible for any differences in bioenergetics and physiology; (ii) considering different scenarios of environmental disruption (excess of nutrients, diffuse or massive pollution, exploitation by man, climate change) to forecast effects on growth, reproduction and survival of key species; (iii) scaling up the models for a few species from the individual level up to the level of evolutionary processes. Apart from the three special issues in the Journal of Sea Research — including the DEBIB collaboration (see vol. 65 issue 2), a theme issue on DEB theory appeared in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (vol 365, 2010); a large number of publications were produced; the third edition of the DEB book appeared (2010); open-source software was substantially expanded (over 1000 functions); a large open-source systematic collection of ecophysiological data and DEB parameters has been set up; and a series of DEB

  3. Towards a regional CO2 budget for New Zealand from atmospheric measurements and backward Lagrangian modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinkamp, K.; Mikaloff-Fletcher, S.; Brailsford, G. W.; Moore, S.

    2013-12-01

    Between 1990 and 2011, the reported average annual growth in total greenhouse gas emissions had been 1.0% for New Zealand, with emissions reaching 73 Mt CO2-e in 2011. At the same time the net emissions (total plus LULUCF) grew by 4.2% each year on average and reached 59 Mt CO2-e in 2011, according to the Ministry for the Environment. This implies a shrinking sink for greenhouse gases in areas of land use/ land use change and forests (LULUCF). The uptake of CO2 by forests is the largest contributor to this sink and, therefore, plays a crucial role in New Zealand's carbon budget. Yet, it is among the least well-known components. In this study, we aim to develop a regional atmosphere inversion system to estimate net CO2 uptake by land areas in 2011 and 2012. This will serve as an alternative to the bottom-up estimates outlined above. We use the UK Met Office's Lagrangian dispersion model NAME III to link CO2 measurements at stations directly to atmospheric transport and potential source regions at the surface. By running the model in backward mode, we identify the degree to which potential regional sources of CO2 contribute to observed mid-afternoon mixing ratios, i.e., the footprint of a station. Footprints are computed over 2011-2012 for three stations across New Zealand: Baring Head, Lauder and Rainbow Mountain. NAME III uses hourly meteorological input from the regional forecast model NZLAM-12 over a domain covering New Zealand and the Tasman Sea at a horizontal resolution of 12 km. The footprints are then used in a regional inversion to find the optimal distribution of CO2 sources and sinks, i.e., the one leading to the best match with the measurements at all stations. We present results from the footprint analysis and show that the three stations are sensitive to distinct source regions that do not overlap and, together, cover large parts of New Zealand. Hence, the data from the stations carry complementary information on CO2 sinks in sources throughout the

  4. Carbon budget estimation of a subarctic catchment using a dynamic ecosystem model at high spatial resolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, J.; Miller, P. A.; Persson, A.; Olefeldt, D.; Pilesjo, P.; Heliasz, M.; Jackowicz-Korczynski, M.; Yang, Z.; Smith, B.; Callaghan, T. V.; Christensen, T. R.

    2015-05-01

    A large amount of organic carbon is stored in high-latitude soils. A substantial proportion of this carbon stock is vulnerable and may decompose rapidly due to temperature increases that are already greater than the global average. It is therefore crucial to quantify and understand carbon exchange between the atmosphere and subarctic/arctic ecosystems. In this paper, we combine an Arctic-enabled version of the process-based dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS (version LPJG-WHyMe-TFM) with comprehensive observations of terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes to simulate long-term carbon exchange in a subarctic catchment at 50 m resolution. Integrating the observed carbon fluxes from aquatic systems with the modeled terrestrial carbon fluxes across the whole catchment, we estimate that the area is a carbon sink at present and will become an even stronger carbon sink by 2080, which is mainly a result of a projected densification of birch forest and its encroachment into tundra heath. However, the magnitudes of the modeled sinks are very dependent on future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Furthermore, comparisons of global warming potentials between two simulations with and without CO2 increase since 1960 reveal that the increased methane emission from the peatland could double the warming effects of the whole catchment by 2080 in the absence of CO2 fertilization of the vegetation. This is the first process-based model study of the temporal evolution of a catchment-level carbon budget at high spatial resolution, including both terrestrial and aquatic carbon. Though this study also highlights some limitations in modeling subarctic ecosystem responses to climate change, such as aquatic system flux dynamics, nutrient limitation, herbivory and other disturbances, and peatland expansion, our study provides one process-based approach to resolve the complexity of carbon cycling in subarctic ecosystems while simultaneously pointing out the key model developments for capturing

  5. Solvation models: theory and validation.

    PubMed

    Purisima, Enrico O; Sulea, Traian

    2014-01-01

    Water plays an active role in many fundamental phenomena in cellular systems such as molecular recognition, folding and conformational equilibria, reaction kinetics and phase partitioning. Hence, our ability to account for the energetics of these processes is highly dependent on the models we use for calculating solvation effects. For example, theoretical prediction of protein-ligand binding modes (i.e., docking) and binding affinities (i.e., scoring) requires an accurate description of the change in hydration that accompanies solute binding. In this review, we discuss the challenges of constructing solvation models that capture these effects, with an emphasis on continuum models and on more recent developments in the field. In our discussion of methods, relatively greater attention will be given to boundary element solutions to the Poisson equation and to nonpolar solvation models, two areas that have become increasingly important but are likely to be less familiar to many readers. The other focus will be upon the trending efforts for evaluating solvation models in order to uncover limitations, biases, and potentially attractive directions for their improvement and applicability. The prospective and retrospective performance of a variety of solvation models in the SAMPL blind challenges will be discussed in detail. After just a few years, these benchmarking exercises have already had a tangible effect in guiding the improvement of solvation models.

  6. An approach to improve precipitation estimation to model the water budget in Alpine catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mair, E.; Bertoldi, G.; Della Chiesa, S.; Niedrist, G.; Egarter Vigl, L.; Tappeiner, U.

    2012-04-01

    Accurate quantification of precipitation is still one of the major sources of uncertainty in quantifying the water budget of Alpine catchments. In fact, besides increasing data availability, usually most of the stations are located in the bottom of the valleys, while, at high elevations, rain gauge accuracy is limited by snow and wind, with strong underestimation of the total precipitation. Similar problems exist for snow measurement devices. In this contribution we present a novel empirical approach to improve precipitation estimation using rain gauge data, snow height and standard meteorological observations, and we evaluate the improvements in estimating the water budget of the Mazia Valley (100 km2 - Central Alps - South Tyrol, Italy). In fact, due to the screening effect of the surrounding mountains (mostly glaciated, maximum elevation: 3750 m a.s.l.) this valley has a relatively dry cold continental climate with strong precipitation gradients. In the framework of the projects "Klimawandel" and "HydroAlp", 17 monitoring stations were installed to measure standard micrometeorological variables, vegetation properties and soil moisture. For a correct climate analysis, a distinction between snow and rainfall is necessary. Due to energy limitations in remote alpine areas no heated rain gauges were installed. However, four stations are equipped with snow height sensors, from which snow data can be retrieved. For other stations the calculation of the snow water equivalent was more complicated because of the lack of snow height sensors. In the empirical approach, for every registered precipitation data record snow height change was reviewed and compared to air temperature and relative humidity, as well as to the calculated wet bulb temperature, in order to distinguish between rainfall and snowfall events. Also the global solar radiation was controlled to identify melt water production coming from accumulated snow on the top of the unheated rain gauges. With a formula

  7. Forecasting Rainfall Induced Landslide using High Resolution DEM and Simple Water Budget Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luzon, P. K. D.; Lagmay, A. M. F. A.

    2014-12-01

    Philippines is hit by an average of 20 typhoons per year bringing large amount of rainfall. Monsoon carrying rain coming from the southwest of the country also contributes to the annual total rainfall that causes different hazards. Such is shallow landslide mainly triggered by high saturation of soil due to continuous downpour which could take up from hours to days. Recent event like this happened in Zambales province September of 2013 where torrential rain occurred for 24 hours amounting to half a month of rain. Rainfall intensity measured by the nearest weather station averaged to 21 mm/hr from 10 pm of 22 until 10 am the following day. The monsoon rains was intensified by the presence of Typhoon Usagi positioned north and heading northwest of the country. A number of landslides due to this happened in 3 different municipalities; Subic, San Marcelino and Castillejos. The disaster have taken 30 lives from the province. Monitoring these areas for the entire country is but a big challenge in all aspect of disaster preparedness and management. The approach of this paper is utilizing the available forecast of rainfall amount to monitor highly hazardous area during the rainy seasons and forecasting possible landslide that could happen. A simple water budget model following the equation Perct=Pt-R/Ot-∆STt-AETt (where as the terms are Percolation, Runoff, Change in Storage, and Actual Evapotraspiration) was implemented in quantifying all the water budget component. Computations are in Python scripted grid system utilizing the widely used GIS forms for easy transfer of data and faster calculation. Results of successive runs will let percolation and change in water storage as indicators of possible landslide.. This approach needs three primary sets of data; weather data, topographic data, and soil parameters. This research uses 5 m resolution DEM (IfSAR) to define the topography. Soil parameters are from fieldworks conducted. Weather data are from the Philippine

  8. Elementary Theory of Covariance Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cohn, S.; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The contents include: 1. State space, spectral space, and observation space; 2. Variances and correlations; 3. Isotropic and anisotropic correlation modeling on the sphere; 4. Operational ozone data assimilation; and 5. Kalman filtering for trace constituents.

  9. Modelling shellfish growth with dynamic energy budget models: an application for cockles and mussels in the Oosterschelde (southwest Netherlands)

    PubMed Central

    Troost, T. A.; Wijsman, J. W. M.; Saraiva, S.; Freitas, V.

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic energy budget models for growth of individual cockles (Cerastoderma edule) and mussels (Mytilus edulis) are adjusted and calibrated to the Oosterschelde by formulating and parametrizing their functional responses using an extensive set of field observations. The resulting model predictions fit the observations satisfactorily. Results indicate that food quality and the importance of detritus as a food source are site-specific as well as species-specific. Despite these differences in their calibrated parameter values, both species show a very similar functional response. Compared with other systems, however, the functional responses of mussels in the present study are clearly higher than those of mussels in other systems. This may be explained by the absence of intra-specific competition in the measurement set-up that was used, and therefore supports the idea that the generally small functional response of M. edulis is caused by intra-specific competition. PMID:20921054

  10. Calibration, Sensor Model Improvements and Uncertainty Budget of the Airborne Imaging Spectrometer APEX

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hueni, A.

    2015-12-01

    ESA's Airborne Imaging Spectrometer APEX (Airborne Prism Experiment) was developed under the PRODEX (PROgramme de Développement d'EXpériences scientifiques) program by a Swiss-Belgian consortium and entered its operational phase at the end of 2010 (Schaepman et al., 2015). Work on the sensor model has been carried out extensively within the framework of European Metrology Research Program as part of the Metrology for Earth Observation and Climate (MetEOC and MetEOC2). The focus has been to improve laboratory calibration procedures in order to reduce uncertainties, to establish a laboratory uncertainty budget and to upgrade the sensor model to compensate for sensor specific biases. The updated sensor model relies largely on data collected during dedicated characterisation experiments in the APEX calibration home base but includes airborne data as well where the simulation of environmental conditions in the given laboratory setup was not feasible. The additions to the model deal with artefacts caused by environmental changes and electronic features, namely the impact of ambient air pressure changes on the radiometry in combination with dichroic coatings, influences of external air temperatures and consequently instrument baffle temperatures on the radiometry, and electronic anomalies causing radiometric errors in the four shortwave infrared detector readout blocks. Many of these resolved issues might be expected to be present in other imaging spectrometers to some degree or in some variation. Consequently, the work clearly shows the difficulties of extending a laboratory-based uncertainty to data collected under in-flight conditions. The results are hence not only of interest to the calibration scientist but also to the spectroscopy end user, in particular when commercial sensor systems are used for data collection and relevant sensor characteristic information tends to be sparse. Schaepman, et al, 2015. Advanced radiometry measurements and Earth science

  11. Measurements of hydroxyl and hydroperoxy radicals during CalNex-LA: Model comparisons and radical budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffith, S. M.; Hansen, R. F.; Dusanter, S.; Michoud, V.; Gilman, J. B.; Kuster, W. C.; Veres, P. R.; Graus, M.; Gouw, J. A.; Roberts, J.; Young, C.; Washenfelder, R.; Brown, S. S.; Thalman, R.; Waxman, E.; Volkamer, R.; Tsai, C.; Stutz, J.; Flynn, J. H.; Grossberg, N.; Lefer, B.; Alvarez, S. L.; Rappenglueck, B.; Mielke, L. H.; Osthoff, H. D.; Stevens, P. S.

    2016-04-01

    Measurements of hydroxyl (OH) and hydroperoxy (HO2*) radical concentrations were made at the Pasadena ground site during the CalNex-LA 2010 campaign using the laser-induced fluorescence-fluorescence assay by gas expansion technique. The measured concentrations of OH and HO2* exhibited a distinct weekend effect, with higher radical concentrations observed on the weekends corresponding to lower levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx). The radical measurements were compared to results from a zero-dimensional model using the Regional Atmospheric Chemical Mechanism-2 constrained by NOx and other measured trace gases. The chemical model overpredicted measured OH concentrations during the weekends by a factor of approximately 1.4 ± 0.3 (1σ), but the agreement was better during the weekdays (ratio of 1.0 ± 0.2). Model predicted HO2* concentrations underpredicted by a factor of 1.3 ± 0.2 on the weekends, while measured weekday concentrations were underpredicted by a factor of 3.0 ± 0.5. However, increasing the modeled OH reactivity to match the measured total OH reactivity improved the overall agreement for both OH and HO2* on all days. A radical budget analysis suggests that photolysis of carbonyls and formaldehyde together accounted for approximately 40% of radical initiation with photolysis of nitrous acid accounting for 30% at the measurement height and ozone photolysis contributing less than 20%. An analysis of the ozone production sensitivity reveals that during the week, ozone production was limited by volatile organic compounds throughout the day during the campaign but NOx limited during the afternoon on the weekends.

  12. Chesapeake Bay nitrogen fluxes derived from a land‐estuarine ocean biogeochemical modeling system: Model description, evaluation, and nitrogen budgets

    PubMed Central

    Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Wilkin, John; Tian, Hanqin; Yang, Qichun; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Wiggert, Jerry D.; Hood, Raleigh R.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract The Chesapeake Bay plays an important role in transforming riverine nutrients before they are exported to the adjacent continental shelf. Although the mean nitrogen budget of the Chesapeake Bay has been previously estimated from observations, uncertainties associated with interannually varying hydrological conditions remain. In this study, a land‐estuarine‐ocean biogeochemical modeling system is developed to quantify Chesapeake riverine nitrogen inputs, within‐estuary nitrogen transformation processes and the ultimate export of nitrogen to the coastal ocean. Model skill was evaluated using extensive in situ and satellite‐derived data, and a simulation using environmental conditions for 2001–2005 was conducted to quantify the Chesapeake Bay nitrogen budget. The 5 year simulation was characterized by large riverine inputs of nitrogen (154 × 109 g N yr−1) split roughly 60:40 between inorganic:organic components. Much of this was denitrified (34 × 109 g N yr−1) and buried (46 × 109 g N yr−1) within the estuarine system. A positive net annual ecosystem production for the bay further contributed to a large advective export of organic nitrogen to the shelf (91 × 109 g N yr−1) and negligible inorganic nitrogen export. Interannual variability was strong, particularly for the riverine nitrogen fluxes. In years with higher than average riverine nitrogen inputs, most of this excess nitrogen (50–60%) was exported from the bay as organic nitrogen, with the remaining split between burial, denitrification, and inorganic export to the coastal ocean. In comparison to previous simulations using generic shelf biogeochemical model formulations inside the estuary, the estuarine biogeochemical model described here produced more realistic and significantly greater exports of organic nitrogen and lower exports of inorganic nitrogen to the shelf. PMID:27668137

  13. Chesapeake Bay nitrogen fluxes derived from a land-estuarine ocean biogeochemical modeling system: Model description, evaluation, and nitrogen budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Yang; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Wilkin, John; Tian, Hanqin; Yang, Qichun; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Wiggert, Jerry D.; Hood, Raleigh R.

    2015-08-01

    The Chesapeake Bay plays an important role in transforming riverine nutrients before they are exported to the adjacent continental shelf. Although the mean nitrogen budget of the Chesapeake Bay has been previously estimated from observations, uncertainties associated with interannually varying hydrological conditions remain. In this study, a land-estuarine-ocean biogeochemical modeling system is developed to quantify Chesapeake riverine nitrogen inputs, within-estuary nitrogen transformation processes and the ultimate export of nitrogen to the coastal ocean. Model skill was evaluated using extensive in situ and satellite-derived data, and a simulation using environmental conditions for 2001-2005 was conducted to quantify the Chesapeake Bay nitrogen budget. The 5 year simulation was characterized by large riverine inputs of nitrogen (154 × 109 g N yr-1) split roughly 60:40 between inorganic:organic components. Much of this was denitrified (34 × 109 g N yr-1) and buried (46 × 109 g N yr-1) within the estuarine system. A positive net annual ecosystem production for the bay further contributed to a large advective export of organic nitrogen to the shelf (91 × 109 g N yr-1) and negligible inorganic nitrogen export. Interannual variability was strong, particularly for the riverine nitrogen fluxes. In years with higher than average riverine nitrogen inputs, most of this excess nitrogen (50-60%) was exported from the bay as organic nitrogen, with the remaining split between burial, denitrification, and inorganic export to the coastal ocean. In comparison to previous simulations using generic shelf biogeochemical model formulations inside the estuary, the estuarine biogeochemical model described here produced more realistic and significantly greater exports of organic nitrogen and lower exports of inorganic nitrogen to the shelf.

  14. Chesapeake Bay nitrogen fluxes derived from a land‐estuarine ocean biogeochemical modeling system: Model description, evaluation, and nitrogen budgets

    PubMed Central

    Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Wilkin, John; Tian, Hanqin; Yang, Qichun; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Wiggert, Jerry D.; Hood, Raleigh R.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract The Chesapeake Bay plays an important role in transforming riverine nutrients before they are exported to the adjacent continental shelf. Although the mean nitrogen budget of the Chesapeake Bay has been previously estimated from observations, uncertainties associated with interannually varying hydrological conditions remain. In this study, a land‐estuarine‐ocean biogeochemical modeling system is developed to quantify Chesapeake riverine nitrogen inputs, within‐estuary nitrogen transformation processes and the ultimate export of nitrogen to the coastal ocean. Model skill was evaluated using extensive in situ and satellite‐derived data, and a simulation using environmental conditions for 2001–2005 was conducted to quantify the Chesapeake Bay nitrogen budget. The 5 year simulation was characterized by large riverine inputs of nitrogen (154 × 109 g N yr−1) split roughly 60:40 between inorganic:organic components. Much of this was denitrified (34 × 109 g N yr−1) and buried (46 × 109 g N yr−1) within the estuarine system. A positive net annual ecosystem production for the bay further contributed to a large advective export of organic nitrogen to the shelf (91 × 109 g N yr−1) and negligible inorganic nitrogen export. Interannual variability was strong, particularly for the riverine nitrogen fluxes. In years with higher than average riverine nitrogen inputs, most of this excess nitrogen (50–60%) was exported from the bay as organic nitrogen, with the remaining split between burial, denitrification, and inorganic export to the coastal ocean. In comparison to previous simulations using generic shelf biogeochemical model formulations inside the estuary, the estuarine biogeochemical model described here produced more realistic and significantly greater exports of organic nitrogen and lower exports of inorganic nitrogen to the shelf.

  15. An information theory approach for evaluating earth radiation budget (ERB) measurements - Nonuniform sampling of diurnal longwave flux variations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halyo, Nesim; Direskeneli, Haldun; Barkstrom, Bruce R.

    1991-01-01

    Satellite measurements are subject to a wide range of uncertainties due to their temporal, spatial, and directional sampling characteristics. An information-theory approach is suggested to examine the nonuniform temporal sampling of ERB measurements. The information (i.e., its entropy or uncertainty) before and after the measurements is determined, and information gain (IG) is defined as a reduction in the uncertainties involved. A stochastic model for the diurnal outgoing flux variations that affect the ERB is developed. Using Gaussian distributions for the a priori and measured radiant exitance fields, the IG is obtained by computing the a posteriori covariance. The IG for the monthly outgoing flux measurements is examined for different orbital parameters and orbital tracks, using the Earth Observing System orbital parameters as specific examples. Variations in IG due to changes in the orbit's inclination angle and the initial ascending node local time are investigated.

  16. Effects of CO2 enrichment on cockle shell growth interpreted with a Dynamic Energy Budget model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klok, Chris; Wijsman, Jeroen W. M.; Kaag, Klaas; Foekema, Edwin

    2014-11-01

    The increase in human induced atmospheric CO2 level leads to an increase in ocean acidification (OA). Mitigation of this increase by storage of CO2 in abandoned marine oil and gas reservoirs is seen as an interesting cost effective solution. However, this involves a risk of CO2 loss causing localised reductions in seawater pH. In this paper we report on the effects of CO2 enhancement on the growth of the bivalve Cerastoderma edule in mesocosms. The experiments show significant reductions in shell length, shell weight and cockle flesh dry weight at increased CO2 level suggesting both direct (shell erosion) and indirect (metabolic) effects. Indirect effects were analysed and interpreted using a Dynamic Energy Budget model by describing changes in 3 metabolic processes: assimilation, maintenance, and growth. Based on cockle size data only we could not differentiate between these processes, however, by using variability of DEB parameter values in 11 bivalve species, we showed growth to be the least relevant process.

  17. Global atmospheric sulfur budget under volcanically quiescent conditions: Aerosol-chemistry-climate model predictions and validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheng, Jian-Xiong; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Luo, Bei-Ping; Rozanov, Eugene; Stenke, Andrea; Anet, Julien; Bingemer, Heinz; Peter, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    The global atmospheric sulfur budget and its emission dependence have been investigated using the coupled aerosol-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-AER. The aerosol module comprises gaseous and aqueous sulfur chemistry and comprehensive microphysics. The particle distribution is resolved by 40 size bins spanning radii from 0.39 nm to 3.2 μm, including size-dependent particle composition. Aerosol radiative properties required by the climate model are calculated online from the aerosol module. The model successfully reproduces main features of stratospheric aerosols under nonvolcanic conditions, including aerosol extinctions compared to Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) and Halogen Occultation Experiment, and size distributions compared to in situ measurements. The calculated stratospheric aerosol burden is 109 Gg of sulfur, matching the SAGE II-based estimate (112 Gg). In terms of fluxes through the tropopause, the stratospheric aerosol layer is due to about 43% primary tropospheric aerosol, 28% SO2, 23% carbonyl sulfide (OCS), 4% H2S, and 2% dimethyl sulfide (DMS). Turning off emissions of the short-lived species SO2, H2S, and DMS shows that OCS alone still establishes about 56% of the original stratospheric aerosol burden. Further sensitivity simulations reveal that anticipated increases in anthropogenic SO2 emissions in China and India have a larger influence on stratospheric aerosols than the same increase in Western Europe or the U.S., due to deep convection in the western Pacific region. However, even a doubling of Chinese and Indian emissions is predicted to increase the stratospheric background aerosol burden only by 9%. In contrast, small to moderate volcanic eruptions, such as that of Nabro in 2011, may easily double the stratospheric aerosol loading.

  18. Self Modeling: Expanding the Theories of Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dowrick, Peter W.

    2012-01-01

    Self modeling (SM) offers a unique expansion of learning theory. For several decades, a steady trickle of empirical studies has reported consistent evidence for the efficacy of SM as a procedure for positive behavior change across physical, social, educational, and diagnostic variations. SM became accepted as an extreme case of model similarity;…

  19. Budget Exercise.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clowes, Darrel A.

    Following a discussion of the factors to be considered in constructing feasible college budgets, an exercise in budget development is presented involving a hypothetical community college with 2,500 full-time equivalent (FTE) students, 500 in developmental education, 750 each in transfer and technical programs, and 500 undecided. Exercise…

  20. Budget timetable

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    This is a timetable for congressional action under the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985 (Gramm-Rudman-Hollings). These deadlines apply to fiscal years (FY) 1987-1991. The Congress missed a number of these deadlines last year. The deficit reduction measures in Gramm-Rudman-Hollings would lead to a balanced budget in 1991.

  1. Carbon budget estimation of a subarctic catchment using a dynamic ecosystem model at high spatial resolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, J.; Miller, P. A.; Persson, A.; Olefeldt, D.; Pilesjö, P.; Heliasz, M.; Jackowicz-Korczynski, M.; Yang, Z.; Smith, B.; Callaghan, T. V.; Christensen, T. R.

    2015-01-01

    Large amount of organic carbon is stored in high latitude soils. A substantial proportion of this carbon stock is vulnerable and may decompose rapidly due to temperature increases that are already greater than the global average. It is therefore crucial to quantify and understand carbon exchange between the atmosphere and subarctic/arctic ecosystems. In this paper, we combine an arctic-enabled version of the process-based dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS (version LPJG-WHyMe-TFM) with comprehensive observations of terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes to simulate long-term carbon exchange in a subarctic catchment comprising both mineral and peatland soils. The model is applied at 50 m resolution and is shown to be able to capture the seasonality and magnitudes of observed fluxes at this fine scale. The modelled magnitudes of CO2 uptake generally follow the descending sequence: birch forest, non-permafrost Eriophorum, Sphagnum and then tundra heath during the observation periods. The catchment-level carbon fluxes from aquatic systems are dominated by CO2 emissions from streams. Integrated across the whole catchment, we estimate that the area is a carbon sink at present, and will become an even stronger carbon sink by 2080, which is mainly a result of a projected densification of birch forest and its encroachment into tundra heath. However, the magnitudes of the modelled sinks are very dependent on future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Furthermore, comparisons of global warming potentials between two simulations with and without CO2 increase since 1960 reveal that the increased methane emission from the peatland could double the warming effects of the whole catchment by 2080 in the absence of CO2 fertilization of the vegetation. This is the first process-based model study of the temporal evolution of a catchment-level carbon budget at high spatial resolution, integrating comprehensive and diverse fluxes including both terrestrial and aquatic carbon. Though this

  2. Modeling the greenhouse gas budget of straw returning in China: feasibility of mitigation and countermeasures.

    PubMed

    Lu, Fei; Wang, Xiao-Ke; Han, Bing; Ouyang, Zhi-Yun; Zheng, Hua

    2010-05-01

    Straw returning is considered to be one of the most promising carbon sequestration measures in China's cropland. A compound model, namely "Straw Returning and Burning Model-Expansion" (SRBME), was built to estimate the net mitigation potential, economic benefits, and air pollutant reduction of straw returning. Three scenarios, that is, baseline, "full popularization of straw returning (FP)," and "full popularization of straw returning and precision fertilization (FP + P)," were set to reflect popularization of straw returning. The results of the SRBME indicated that (1) compared with the soil carbon sequestration of 13.37 Tg/yr, the net mitigation potentials, which were 6.328 Tg/yr for the FP scenario and 9.179 Tg/yr for the FP + P scenario, had different trends when the full budget of the greenhouse gases was considered; (2) when the feasibility in connection with greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, economic benefits, and environmental benefits was taken into consideration, straw returning was feasible in 15 provinces in the FP scenario, with a total net mitigation potential of 7.192 TgCe/yr and the total benefits of CNY 1.473 billion (USD 216.6 million); (3) in the FP + P scenario, with the implementation of precision fertilization, straw returning was feasible in 26 provinces with a total net mitigation potential of 10.39 TgCe/yr and the total benefits of CNY 5.466 billion (USD 803.8 million); (4) any extent of change in the treatment of straw from being burnt to being returned would contribute to air pollution reduction; (5) some countermeasures, such as CH(4) reduction in rice paddies, precision fertilization, financial support, education and propaganda, would promote the feasibility of straw returning as a mitigation measure.

  3. Model-based estimation of the global carbon budget and its uncertainty from carbon dioxide and carbon isotope records

    SciTech Connect

    Kheshgi, Haroon S.; Jain, Atul K.; Wuebbles, Donald J.

    1999-12-27

    A global carbon cycle model is used to reconstruct the carbon budget, balancing emissions from fossil fuel and land use with carbon uptake by the oceans, and the terrestrial biosphere. We apply Bayesian statistics to estimate uncertainty of carbon uptake by the oceans and the terrestrial biosphere based on carbon dioxide and carbon isotope records, and prior information on model parameter probability distributions. This results in a quantitative reconstruction of past carbon budget and its uncertainty derived from an explicit choice of model, data-based constraints, and prior distribution of parameters. Our estimated ocean sink for the 1980s is 17{+-}7 Gt C (90% confidence interval) and is comparable to the estimate of 20{+-}8 Gt C given in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment [Schimel et al., 1996]. Constraint choice is tested to determine which records have the most influence over estimates of the past carbon budget; records individually (e.g., bomb-radiocarbon inventory) have little effect since there are other records which form similar constraints. (c) 1999 American Geophysical Union.

  4. Model-based estimation of the global carbon budget and its uncertainty from carbon dioxide and carbon isotope records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kheshgi, Haroon S.; Jain, Atul K.; Wuebbles, Donald J.

    1999-01-01

    A global carbon cycle model is used to reconstruct the carbon budget, balancing emissions from fossil fuel and land use with carbon uptake by the oceans, and the terrestrial biosphere. We apply Bayesian statistics to estimate uncertainty of carbon uptake by the oceans and the terrestrial biosphere based on carbon dioxide and carbon isotope records, and prior information on model parameter probability distributions. This results in a quantitative reconstruction of past carbon budget and its uncertainty derived from an explicit choice of model, data-based constraints, and prior distribution of parameters. Our estimated ocean sink for the 1980s is 17±7 Gt C (90% confidence interval) and is comparable to the estimate of 20±8 Gt C given in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment [Schimel et al., 1996]. Constraint choice is tested to determine which records have the most influence over estimates of the past carbon budget; records individually (e.g., bomb-radiocarbon inventory) have little effect since there are other records which form similar constraints.

  5. Use and uncertainty evaluation of a process-based model for assessing the methane budgets of global terrestrial ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, A.; Inatomi, M.

    2011-07-01

    We assessed the global terrestrial budget of methane (CH4) using a process-based biogeochemical model (VISIT) and inventory data. Emissions from wetlands, paddy fields, biomass burning, and plants, and oxidative consumption by upland soils, were simulated by the model. Emissions from livestock ruminants and termites were evaluated by an inventory approach. These CH4 flows were estimated for each of the model's 0.5° × 0.5° grid cells from 1901 to 2009, while accounting for atmospheric composition, meteorological factors, and land-use changes. Estimation uncertainties were examined through ensemble simulations using different parameterization schemes and input data (e.g. different wetland maps and emission factors). From 1996 to 2005, the average global terrestrial CH4 budget was estimated on the basis of 576 simulations, and terrestrial ecosystems were found to be a net source of 320.4 ± 18.9 Tg CH4 yr-1. Wetland and ruminant emissions were the primary sources. The results of our simulations indicate that sources and sinks are distributed highly heterogeneously over the Earth's land surface. Seasonal and interannual variability in the terrestrial budget was assessed. The trend of increasing net terrestrial sources and its relationship with temperature variability imply that terrestrial CH4 feedbacks will play an increasingly important role as a result of future climatic change.

  6. Improved predictive ability of climate-human-behaviour interactions with modifications to the COMFA outdoor energy budget model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vanos, J. K.; Warland, J. S.; Gillespie, T. J.; Kenny, N. A.

    2012-11-01

    The purpose of this paper is to implement current and novel research techniques in human energy budget estimations to give more accurate and efficient application of models by a variety of users. Using the COMFA model, the conditioning level of an individual is incorporated into overall energy budget predictions, giving more realistic estimations of the metabolism experienced at various fitness levels. Through the use of VO2 reserve estimates, errors are found when an elite athlete is modelled as an unconditioned or a conditioned individual, giving budgets underpredicted significantly by -173 and -123 W m-2, respectively. Such underprediction can result in critical errors regarding heat stress, particularly in highly motivated individuals; thus this revision is critical for athletic individuals. A further improvement in the COMFA model involves improved adaptation of clothing insulation ( I cl), as well clothing non-uniformity, with changing air temperature ( T a) and metabolic activity ( M act). Equivalent T a values (for I cl estimation) are calculated in order to lower the I cl value with increasing M act at equal T a. Furthermore, threshold T a values are calculated to predict the point at which an individual will change from a uniform I cl to a segmented I cl (full ensemble to shorts and a T-shirt). Lastly, improved relative velocity ( v r) estimates were found with a refined equation accounting for the degree angle of wind to body movement. Differences between the original and improved v r equations increased with higher wind and activity speeds, and as the wind to body angle moved away from 90°. Under moderate microclimate conditions, and wind from behind a person, the convective heat loss and skin temperature estimates were 47 W m-2 and 1.7°C higher when using the improved v r equation. These model revisions improve the applicability and usability of the COMFA energy budget model for subjects performing physical activity in outdoor environments

  7. Verification and calibration of Energy- and Flux-Budget (EFB) turbulence closure model through large eddy simulations and direct numerical simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kadantsev, Evgeny; Fortelius, Carl; Druzhinin, Oleg; Mortikov, Evgeny; Glazunov, Andrey; Zilitinkevich, Sergej

    2016-04-01

    We examine and validate the EFB turbulence closure model (Zilitinkevich et al., 2013), which is based on the budget equations for basic second moments, namely, two energies: turbulent kinetic energy EK and turbulent potential energy EP, and vertical turbulent fluxes of momentum and potential temperature, τi (i = 1, 2) and Fz. Instead of traditional postulation of down-gradient turbulent transport, the EFB closure determines the eddy viscosity and eddy conductivity from the steady-state version of the budget equations for τi and Fz. Furthermore, the EFB closure involves new prognostic equation for turbulent dissipation time scale tT, and extends the theory to non-steady turbulence regimes accounting for non-gradient and non-local turbulent transports (when the traditional concepts of eddy viscosity and eddy conductivity become generally inconsistent). Our special interest is in asymptotic behavior of the EFB closure in strongly stable stratification. For this purpose, we consider plane Couette flow, namely, the flow between two infinite parallel plates, one of which is moving relative to another. We use a set of Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) experiments at the highest possible Reynolds numbers for different bulk Richardson numbers (Druzhinin et al., 2015). To demonstrate potential improvements in Numerical Weather Prediction models, we test the new closure model in various idealized cases, varying stratification from the neutral and conventionally neutral to stable (GABLS1) running a test RANS model and HARMONIE/AROME model in single-column mode. Results are compared with DNS and LES (Large Eddy Simulation) runs and different numerical weather prediction models.

  8. Model for a fundamental theory with supersymmetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yokoo, Seiichiro

    Physics in the year 2006 is tightly constrained by experiment, observation, and mathematical consistency. The Standard Model provides a remarkably precise description of particle physics, and general relativity is quite successful in describing gravitational phenomena. At the same time, it is clear that a more fundamental theory is needed for several distinct reasons. Here we consider a new approach, which begins with the unusually ambitious point of view that a truly fundamental theory should aspire to explaining the origins of Lorentz invariance, gravity, gauge fields and their symmetry, supersymmetry, fermionic fields, bosonic fields, quantum mechanics and spacetime. The present dissertation is organized so that it starts with the most conventional ideas for extending the Standard Model and ends with a microscopic statistical picture, which is actually the logical starting point of the theory, but which is also the most remote excursion from conventional physics. One motivation for the present work is the fact that a Euclidean path integral in quantum physics is equivalent to a partition function in statistical physics. This suggests that the most fundamental description of nature may be statistical. This dissertation may be regarded as an attempt to see how far one can go with this premise in explaining the observed phenomena, starting with the simplest statistical picture imaginable. It may be that nature is richer than the model assumed here, but the present results are quite suggestive, because, with a set of assumptions that are not unreasonable, one recovers the phenomena listed above. At the end, the present theory leads back to conventional physics, except that Lorentz invariance and supersymmetry are violated at extremely high energy. To be more specific, one obtains local Lorentz invariance (at low energy compared to the Planck scale), an SO( N) unified gauge theory (with N = 10 as the simplest possibility), supersymmetry of Standard Model fermions and

  9. Engaging Theories and Models to Inform Practice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kraus, Amanda

    2012-01-01

    Helping students prepare for the complex transition to life after graduation is an important responsibility shared by those in student affairs and others in higher education. This chapter explores theories and models that can inform student affairs practitioners and faculty in preparing students for life after college. The focus is on roles,…

  10. Aligning Grammatical Theories and Language Processing Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis, Shevaun; Phillips, Colin

    2015-01-01

    We address two important questions about the relationship between theoretical linguistics and psycholinguistics. First, do grammatical theories and language processing models describe separate cognitive systems, or are they accounts of different aspects of the same system? We argue that most evidence is consistent with the one-system view. Second,…

  11. Theories and Models of Ethnic Inequality.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hirschman, Charles

    Theories of racial and ethnic relations have been plentiful, but the empirical testing of hypotheses has not led to a cumulative growth of knowledge. As yet, no strong paradigm of research has emerged. The growth of empirical studies of racial/ethnic inequality in the United States over the last decade suggests that formal models of the process of…

  12. Estimation of the Components of the Carbon and Water Budgets for Winter Wheat by Combining High Resolution Remote Sensing Data with a Crop Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veloso, A.; Ceschia, E.

    2014-12-01

    Croplands occupy more than one third of Earth's terrestrial surface contributing to climate change and also being impacted by those changes, since their production is conditioned by climatic conditions and water resources. It is thus essential to quantify and analyze the production and the main components of the carbon and water cycles for crop ecosystems. We propose here a regional modeling approach that combines: high spatial and temporal resolutions (HSTR) optical remote sensing data, a simple crop model and an extensive set of in-situ measurements for model's calibration and validation. The model, named SAFYE-CO2 (Simple Algorithm for Fluxes and Yield Estimates), is a daily time step model based on Monteith's light-use efficiency theory and coupled with a water budget module (FAO-56 method). SAFYE-CO2 estimates components of the carbon budget (gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), …) and of the crop water cycle (evaporation, transpiration, evapotranspiration (ETR) and soil water content) and also time courses of dry aboveground biomass and yield by assimilating Green Area Index (GAI) data obtained from HSTR satellite observations. For this work, we used a unique set of Formosat-2 and SPOT images acquired from 2006 to 2011 in southwest France. Crop and soil model parameters were set using both in-situ measurements and values found in the literature. Phenological parameters were calibrated by the GAI assimilation. The results indicate that the model correctly reproduces winter wheat biomass and yield production (relative error about 25%) for years with contrasted climatic conditions. The estimated net carbon flux components were overall in agreement with the flux measurements, presenting good correlations (R² about 0.9 for GPP, 0.77 for Reco and 0.84 for NEE). Regarding the ETR, a good correlation (R2 about 0.73) and satisfactory errors (RMSE about 0.47 mm.d-1) were found. Carbon and water budgets as well

  13. Theory, Modeling, and Simulation of Semiconductor Lasers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ning, Cun-Zheng; Saini, Subbash (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    Semiconductor lasers play very important roles in many areas of information technology. In this talk, I will first give an overview of semiconductor laser theory. This will be followed by a description of different models and their shortcomings in modeling and simulation. Our recent efforts in constructing a fully space and time resolved simulation model will then be described. Simulation results based on our model will be presented. Finally the effort towards a self-consistent and comprehensive simulation capability for the opto-electronics integrated circuits (OEICs) will be briefly reviewed.

  14. Confronting the WRF and RAMS mesoscale models with innovative observations in the Netherlands: Evaluating the boundary layer heat budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steeneveld, G. J.; Tolk, L. F.; Moene, A. F.; Hartogensis, O. K.; Peters, W.; Holtslag, A. A. M.

    2011-12-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Regional Atmospheric Mesoscale Model System (RAMS) are frequently used for (regional) weather, climate and air quality studies. This paper covers an evaluation of these models for a windy and calm episode against Cabauw tower observations (Netherlands), with a special focus on the representation of the physical processes in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). In addition, area averaged sensible heat flux observations by scintillometry are utilized which enables evaluation of grid scale model fluxes and flux observations at the same horizontal scale. Also, novel ABL height observations by ceilometry and of the near surface longwave radiation divergence are utilized. It appears that WRF in its basic set-up shows satisfactory model results for nearly all atmospheric near surface variables compared to field observations, while RAMS needed refining of its ABL scheme. An important inconsistency was found regarding the ABL daytime heat budget: Both model versions are only able to correctly forecast the ABL thermodynamic structure when the modeled surface sensible heat flux is much larger than both the eddy-covariance and scintillometer observations indicate. In order to clarify this discrepancy, model results for each term of the heat budget equation is evaluated against field observations. Sensitivity studies and evaluation of radiative tendencies and entrainment reveal that possible errors in these variables cannot explain the overestimation of the sensible heat flux within the current model infrastructure.

  15. Integrating Academic Planning and Budgeting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McClenney, Byron N.; Chaffee, Ellen Earle

    1985-01-01

    Argues that effective college management depends upon the budget implementing the important values of the institution. Suggests a model integrating strategic and operational planning and resource allocation. (AYC)

  16. An energy budget agent-based model of earthworm populations and its application to study the effects of pesticides

    PubMed Central

    Johnston, A.S.A.; Hodson, M.E.; Thorbek, P.; Alvarez, T.; Sibly, R.M.

    2014-01-01

    Earthworms are important organisms in soil communities and so are used as model organisms in environmental risk assessments of chemicals. However current risk assessments of soil invertebrates are based on short-term laboratory studies, of limited ecological relevance, supplemented if necessary by site-specific field trials, which sometimes are challenging to apply across the whole agricultural landscape. Here, we investigate whether population responses to environmental stressors and pesticide exposure can be accurately predicted by combining energy budget and agent-based models (ABMs), based on knowledge of how individuals respond to their local circumstances. A simple energy budget model was implemented within each earthworm Eisenia fetida in the ABM, based on a priori parameter estimates. From broadly accepted physiological principles, simple algorithms specify how energy acquisition and expenditure drive life cycle processes. Each individual allocates energy between maintenance, growth and/or reproduction under varying conditions of food density, soil temperature and soil moisture. When simulating published experiments, good model fits were obtained to experimental data on individual growth, reproduction and starvation. Using the energy budget model as a platform we developed methods to identify which of the physiological parameters in the energy budget model (rates of ingestion, maintenance, growth or reproduction) are primarily affected by pesticide applications, producing four hypotheses about how toxicity acts. We tested these hypotheses by comparing model outputs with published toxicity data on the effects of copper oxychloride and chlorpyrifos on E. fetida. Both growth and reproduction were directly affected in experiments in which sufficient food was provided, whilst maintenance was targeted under food limitation. Although we only incorporate toxic effects at the individual level we show how ABMs can readily extrapolate to larger scales by providing

  17. How To Develop an Effective Budget Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chabotar, Kent John

    1999-01-01

    An effective college or university budget process is dependent on the culture of the institution. Different processes and budget types are appropriate to different institutions. Understanding the interrelationships of budgeting, planning, and financial modeling can help make the budget more predictable and relevant to the college's values and…

  18. Crack propagation modeling using Peridynamic theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hafezi, M. H.; Alebrahim, R.; Kundu, T.

    2016-04-01

    Crack propagation and branching are modeled using nonlocal peridynamic theory. One major advantage of this nonlocal theory based analysis tool is the unifying approach towards material behavior modeling - irrespective of whether the crack is formed in the material or not. No separate damage law is needed for crack initiation and propagation. This theory overcomes the weaknesses of existing continuum mechanics based numerical tools (e.g. FEM, XFEM etc.) for identifying fracture modes and does not require any simplifying assumptions. Cracks grow autonomously and not necessarily along a prescribed path. However, in some special situations such as in case of ductile fracture, the damage evolution and failure depend on parameters characterizing the local stress state instead of peridynamic damage modeling technique developed for brittle fracture. For brittle fracture modeling the bond is simply broken when the failure criterion is satisfied. This simulation helps us to design more reliable modeling tool for crack propagation and branching in both brittle and ductile materials. Peridynamic analysis has been found to be very demanding computationally, particularly for real-world structures (e.g. vehicles, aircrafts, etc.). It also requires a very expensive visualization process. The goal of this paper is to bring awareness to researchers the impact of this cutting-edge simulation tool for a better understanding of the cracked material response. A computer code has been developed to implement the peridynamic theory based modeling tool for two-dimensional analysis. A good agreement between our predictions and previously published results is observed. Some interesting new results that have not been reported earlier by others are also obtained and presented in this paper. The final objective of this investigation is to increase the mechanics knowledge of self-similar and self-affine cracks.

  19. Hydrologic modelling for Lake Basaka: development and application of a conceptual water budget model.

    PubMed

    Dinka, Megersa O; Loiskandl, Willibald; Ndambuki, Julius M

    2014-09-01

    Quantification of fluxes of water into and out of terminal lakes like Basaka has fundamental challenges. This is due to the fact that accurate measurement and quantification of most of the parameters of a lake's hydrologic cycle are difficult. Furthermore, quantitative understanding of the hydrologic systems and hence, the data-intensive modelling is difficult in developing countries like Ethiopia due to limitation of sufficient recorded data. Therefore, formulation of a conceptual water balance model is extremely important as it presents a convenient analytical tool with simplified assumptions to simulate the magnitude of unknown fluxes. In the current study, a conceptual lake water balance model was systematically formulated, solved, calibrated, and validated successfully. Then, the surface water and groundwater interaction was quantified, and a mathematical relationship developed. The overall agreement between the observed and simulated lake stage at monthly time step was confirmed based on the standard performance parameters (R(2), MAE, RMSE, E(f)). The result showed that hydrological water balance of the lake is dominated by the groundwater (GW) component. The net GW flux in recent period (post-2000s) accounts about 56% of the total water inflow. Hence, GW plays a leading role in the hydrodynamics and existence of Lake Basaka and is mostly responsible for the expansion of the lake. Thus, identification of the potential sources/causes for the GW flux plays a leading role in order to limit the further expansion of the lake. Measurement of GW movement and exchange in the area is a high priority for future research. PMID:24816590

  20. Hydrologic modelling for Lake Basaka: development and application of a conceptual water budget model.

    PubMed

    Dinka, Megersa O; Loiskandl, Willibald; Ndambuki, Julius M

    2014-09-01

    Quantification of fluxes of water into and out of terminal lakes like Basaka has fundamental challenges. This is due to the fact that accurate measurement and quantification of most of the parameters of a lake's hydrologic cycle are difficult. Furthermore, quantitative understanding of the hydrologic systems and hence, the data-intensive modelling is difficult in developing countries like Ethiopia due to limitation of sufficient recorded data. Therefore, formulation of a conceptual water balance model is extremely important as it presents a convenient analytical tool with simplified assumptions to simulate the magnitude of unknown fluxes. In the current study, a conceptual lake water balance model was systematically formulated, solved, calibrated, and validated successfully. Then, the surface water and groundwater interaction was quantified, and a mathematical relationship developed. The overall agreement between the observed and simulated lake stage at monthly time step was confirmed based on the standard performance parameters (R(2), MAE, RMSE, E(f)). The result showed that hydrological water balance of the lake is dominated by the groundwater (GW) component. The net GW flux in recent period (post-2000s) accounts about 56% of the total water inflow. Hence, GW plays a leading role in the hydrodynamics and existence of Lake Basaka and is mostly responsible for the expansion of the lake. Thus, identification of the potential sources/causes for the GW flux plays a leading role in order to limit the further expansion of the lake. Measurement of GW movement and exchange in the area is a high priority for future research.

  1. Regional distribution of perceived temperatures estimated by the human heat budget model (the Klima-Michel model) in South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Jiyoung; Kim, Kyu Rang; Choi, Byoung-Cheol; Lee, Dae-Geun; Kim, Jeong-Sik

    2009-03-01

    The regional distribution of perceived temperatures (PT) for 28 major weather stations in South Korea during the past 22 years (1983-2004) was investigated by employing a human heat budget model, the Klima-Michel model. The frequencies of a cold stress and a heat load by each region were compared. The sensitivity of PT in terms of the input of synoptic meteorological variables were successfully tested. Seogwipo in Jeju Island appears to be the most comfortable city in Korea. Busan also shows a high frequency in the comfortable PT range. The frequency of the thermal comfort in Seoul is similar to that of Daejeon with a relatively low frequency. In this study, inland cities like Daegu and Daejeon had very hot thermal sensations. Low frequencies of hot thermal sensations appeared in coastal cities (e.g., Busan, Incheon, and Seogwipo). Most of the 28 stations in Korea exhibited a comfort thermal sensation over 40% in its frequency, except for the mountainous regions. The frequency of a heat load is more frequent than that of a cold stress. There are no cities with very cold thermal sensations. In this study, we found the decreasing trend of mortality with an increasing PT. If the PT is over any critical temperature point, however, the mortality rate increases again. The mortality variation with the PT of a station seems to be associated with the latitudinal location of the station, implying that it results from a regional acclimation effect of inhabitants.

  2. Asymptotic theory of an infectious disease model.

    PubMed

    Whitman, Alan M; Ashrafiuon, Hashem

    2006-08-01

    In this paper, we present asymptotic theory as a viable alternative solution method for infectious disease models. We consider a particular model of a pathogen attacking a host whose immune system responds defensively, that has been studied previously [Mohtashemi and Levins in J. Math. Biol. 43: 446-470 (2001)]. On rendering this model dimensionless, we can reduce the number of parameters to two and note that one of them has a large value that suggests an asymptotic analysis. On doing this analysis, we obtain a satisfying qualitative description of the dynamic evolution of each population, together with simple analytic expressions for their main features, from which we can compute accurate quantitative values.

  3. A tidal creek water budget: Estimation of groundwater discharge and overland flow using hydrologic modeling in the Southern Everglades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michot, Béatrice; Meselhe, Ehab A.; Rivera-Monroy, Victor H.; Coronado-Molina, Carlos; Twilley, Robert R.

    2011-07-01

    Taylor Slough is one of the natural freshwater contributors to Florida Bay through a network of microtidal creeks crossing the Everglades Mangrove Ecotone Region (EMER). The EMER ecological function is critical since it mediates freshwater and nutrient inputs and controls the water quality in Eastern Florida Bay. Furthermore, this region is vulnerable to changing hydrodynamics and nutrient loadings as a result of upstream freshwater management practices proposed by the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Program (CERP), currently the largest wetland restoration project in the USA. Despite the hydrological importance of Taylor Slough in the water budget of Florida Bay, there are no fine scale (˜1 km 2) hydrodynamic models of this system that can be utilized as a tool to evaluate potential changes in water flow, salinity, and water quality. Taylor River is one of the major creeks draining Taylor Slough freshwater into Florida Bay. We performed a water budget analysis for the Taylor River area, based on long-term hydrologic data (1999-2007) and supplemented by hydrodynamic modeling using a MIKE FLOOD (DHI, http://dhigroup.com/) model to evaluate groundwater and overland water discharges. The seasonal hydrologic characteristics are very distinctive (average Taylor River wet vs. dry season outflow was 6 to 1 during 1999-2006) with a pronounced interannual variability of flow. The water budget shows a net dominance of through flow in the tidal mixing zone, while local precipitation and evapotranspiration play only a secondary role, at least in the wet season. During the dry season, the tidal flood reaches the upstream boundary of the study area during approximately 80 days per year on average. The groundwater field measurements indicate a mostly upwards-oriented leakage, which possibly equals the evapotranspiration term. The model results suggest a high importance of groundwater contribution to the water salinity in the EMER. The model performance is satisfactory

  4. Topos models for physics and topos theory

    SciTech Connect

    Wolters, Sander

    2014-08-15

    What is the role of topos theory in the topos models for quantum theory as used by Isham, Butterfield, Döring, Heunen, Landsman, Spitters, and others? In other words, what is the interplay between physical motivation for the models and the mathematical framework used in these models? Concretely, we show that the presheaf topos model of Butterfield, Isham, and Döring resembles classical physics when viewed from the internal language of the presheaf topos, similar to the copresheaf topos model of Heunen, Landsman, and Spitters. Both the presheaf and copresheaf models provide a “quantum logic” in the form of a complete Heyting algebra. Although these algebras are natural from a topos theoretic stance, we seek a physical interpretation for the logical operations. Finally, we investigate dynamics. In particular, we describe how an automorphism on the operator algebra induces a homeomorphism (or isomorphism of locales) on the associated state spaces of the topos models, and how elementary propositions and truth values transform under the action of this homeomorphism. Also with dynamics the focus is on the internal perspective of the topos.

  5. A sediment budget for southern Lake Michigan: source and sink models for different time intervals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Colman, Steven M.; Foster, D.S.

    1994-01-01

    Two terms dominate the modern sediment-budget equation: (1) bluff erosion, which is an order of magnitude larger than either rivers or aerosols as a source, and (2) deposition in the deep basin, which is more than two orders of magnitude greater as a sink than suspended sediment transport out of the basin. The attempt to reconstruct sediment budgets for time intervals of 100, 5000, and 10 000 years leads to important insights about erosion and sedimentation processes. Bluff erosion is the dominant source of both sand and mud in the basin. The deep lake floor is the primary sink for mud, whereas both the deep lake and nearshore areas are important sinks for sand. -from Authors

  6. Prospects for Advanced RF Theory and Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Batchelor, D.B.

    1999-04-12

    This paper represents an attempt to express in print the contents of a rather philosophical review talk. The charge for the talk was not to summarize the present status of the field and what we can do, but to assess what we will need to do in the future and where the gaps are in fulfilling these needs. The objective was to be complete, covering all aspects of theory and modeling in all frequency regimes, although in the end the talk mainly focussed on the ion cyclotron range of frequencies (ICRF). In choosing which areas to develop, it is important to keep in mind who the customers for RF modeling are likely to be and what sorts of tasks they will need for RF to do. This occupies the first part of the paper. Then we examine each of the elements of a complete RF theory and try to identify the kinds of advances needed.

  7. A Membrane Model from Implicit Elasticity Theory

    PubMed Central

    Freed, A. D.; Liao, J.; Einstein, D. R.

    2014-01-01

    A Fungean solid is derived for membranous materials as a body defined by isotropic response functions whose mathematical structure is that of a Hookean solid where the elastic constants are replaced by functions of state derived from an implicit, thermodynamic, internal-energy function. The theory utilizes Biot’s (1939) definitions for stress and strain that, in 1-dimension, are the stress/strain measures adopted by Fung (1967) when he postulated what is now known as Fung’s law. Our Fungean membrane model is parameterized against a biaxial data set acquired from a porcine pleural membrane subjected to three, sequential, proportional, planar extensions. These data support an isotropic/deviatoric split in the stress and strain-rate hypothesized by our theory. These data also demonstrate that the material response is highly non-linear but, otherwise, mechanically isotropic. These data are described reasonably well by our otherwise simple, four-parameter, material model. PMID:24282079

  8. Theory, Modeling and Simulation Annual Report 2000

    SciTech Connect

    Dixon, David A.; Garrett, Bruce C.; Straatsma, Tp; Jones, Donald R.; Studham, Ronald S.; Harrison, Robert J.; Nichols, Jeffrey A.

    2001-11-01

    This annual report describes the 2000 research accomplishments for the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation (TM&S) directorate, one of the six research organizations in the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). EMSL is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national scientific user facility and is the centerpiece of the DOE commitment to providing world-class experimental, theoretical, and computational capabilities for solving the nation's environmental problems.

  9. Theory, Modeling and Simulation Annual Report 2000

    SciTech Connect

    Dixon, David A; Garrett, Bruce C; Straatsma, TP; Jones, Donald R; Studham, Scott; Harrison, Robert J; Nichols, Jeffrey A

    2001-11-01

    This annual report describes the 2000 research accomplishments for the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation (TM and S) directorate, one of the six research organizations in the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). EMSL is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national scientific user facility and is the centerpiece of the DOE commitment to providing world-class experimental, theoretical, and computational capabilities for solving the nation's environmental problems.

  10. Quantum mechanical model in gravity theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Losyakov, V. V.

    2016-05-01

    We consider a model of a real massive scalar field defined as homogeneous on a d-dimensional sphere such that the sphere radius, time scale, and scalar field are related by the equations of the general theory of relativity. We quantize this system with three degrees of freedom, define the observables, and find dynamical mean values of observables in the regime where the scalar field mass is much less than the Planck mass.

  11. Estimation of energy budget of ionosphere-thermosphere system during two CIR-HSS events: observations and modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verkhoglyadova, Olga; Meng, Xing; Mannucci, Anthony J.; Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Hunt, Linda A.; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Hajra, Rajkumar; Emery, Barbara A.

    2016-04-01

    We analyze the energy budget of the ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) system during two High-Speed Streams (HSSs) on 22-31 January, 2007 (in the descending phase of solar cycle 23) and 25 April-2 May, 2011 (in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24) to understand typical features, similarities, and differences in magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) coupling during HSS geomagnetic activity. We focus on the solar wind energy input into the magnetosphere (by using coupling functions) and energy partitioning within the IT system during these intervals. The Joule heating is estimated empirically. Hemispheric power is estimated based on satellite measurements. We utilize observations from TIMED/SABER (Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) to estimate nitric oxide (NO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) cooling emission fluxes. We perform a detailed modeling study of these two similar HSS events with the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM) and different external driving inputs to understand the IT response and to address how well the model reproduces the energy transport. GITM is run in a mode with forecastable inputs. It is shown that the model captures the main features of the energy coupling, but underestimates NO cooling and auroral heating in high latitudes. Lower thermospheric forcing at 100 km altitude is important for correct energy balance of the IT system. We discuss challenges for a physics-based general forecasting approach in modeling the energy budget of moderate IT storms caused by HSSs.

  12. Development of a process-based model to predict pathogen budgets for the Sydney drinking water catchment.

    PubMed

    Ferguson, Christobel M; Croke, Barry F W; Beatson, Peter J; Ashbolt, Nicholas J; Deere, Daniel A

    2007-06-01

    In drinking water catchments, reduction of pathogen loads delivered to reservoirs is an important priority for the management of raw source water quality. To assist with the evaluation of management options, a process-based mathematical model (pathogen catchment budgets - PCB) is developed to predict Cryptosporidium, Giardia and E. coli loads generated within and exported from drinking water catchments. The model quantifies the key processes affecting the generation and transport of microorganisms from humans and animals using land use and flow data, and catchment specific information including point sources such as sewage treatment plants and on-site systems. The resultant pathogen catchment budgets (PCB) can be used to prioritize the implementation of control measures for the reduction of pathogen risks to drinking water. The model is applied in the Wingecarribee catchment and used to rank those sub-catchments that would contribute the highest pathogen loads in dry weather, and in intermediate and large wet weather events. A sensitivity analysis of the model identifies that pathogen excretion rates from animals and humans, and manure mobilization rates are significant factors determining the output of the model and thus warrant further investigation.

  13. Conceptual Models and Theory-Embedded Principles on Effective Schooling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scheerens, Jaap

    1997-01-01

    Reviews models and theories on effective schooling. Discusses four rationality-based organization theories and a fifth perspective, chaos theory, as applied to organizational functioning. Discusses theory-embedded principles flowing from these theories: proactive structuring, fit, market mechanisms, cybernetics, and self-organization. The…

  14. Hydrologic Characterization for Spring Creek and Hydrologic Budget and Model Scenarios for Sheridan Lake, South Dakota, 1962-2007

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Driscoll, Daniel G.; Norton, Parker A.

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey cooperated with South Dakota Game, Fish and Parks to characterize hydrologic information relevant to management of water resources associated with Sheridan Lake, which is formed by a dam on Spring Creek. This effort consisted primarily of characterization of hydrologic data for a base period of 1962 through 2006, development of a hydrologic budget for Sheridan Lake for this timeframe, and development of an associated model for simulation of storage deficits and drawdown in Sheridan Lake for hypothetical release scenarios from the lake. Historically, the dam has been operated primarily as a 'pass-through' system, in which unregulated outflows pass over the spillway; however, the dam recently was retrofitted with an improved control valve system that would allow controlled releases of about 7 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) or less from a fixed depth of about 60 feet (ft). Development of a hydrologic budget for Sheridan Lake involved compilation, estimation, and characterization of data sets for streamflow, precipitation, and evaporation. The most critical data need was for extrapolation of available short-term streamflow records for Spring Creek to be used as the long-term inflow to Sheridan Lake. Available short-term records for water years (WY) 1991-2004 for a gaging station upstream from Sheridan Lake were extrapolated to WY 1962-2006 on the basis of correlations with streamflow records for a downstream station and for stations located along two adjacent streams. Comparisons of data for the two streamflow-gaging stations along Spring Creek indicated that tributary inflow is approximately proportional to the intervening drainage area, which was used as a means of estimating tributary inflow for the hydrologic budget. Analysis of evaporation data shows that sustained daily rates may exceed maximum monthly rates by a factor of about two. A long-term (1962-2006) hydrologic budget was developed for computation of reservoir outflow from

  15. Modelling canopy radiation budget through multiple scattering approximation: a case study of coniferous forest in Mexico City Valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silván-Cárdenas, Jose L.; Corona-Romero, Nirani

    2015-10-01

    In this paper, we describe some results from a study on hyperspectral analysis of coniferous canopy scattering for the purpose of estimating forest biophysical and structural parameters. Georeferenced airborne hyperspectral measurements were taken from a flying helicopter over a coniferous forest dominated by Pinus hartweguii and Abies religiosa within the Federal District Conservation Land in Mexico City. Hyperspectral data was recorded in the optical range from 350 to 2500 nm at 1nm spectral resolution using the FieldSpec 4 (ASD Inc.). Spectral measurements were also carried out in the ground for vegetation and understory components, including leaf, bark, soil and grass. Measurements were then analyzed through a previously developed multiple scattering approximation (MSA) model, which represents above-canopy spectral reflectance through a non-linear combination of pure spectral components (endmembers), as well as through a set of photon recollision probabilities and interceptance fractions. In this paper we provide an expression for the canopy absorptance as the basis for estimating the components of canopy radiation budget using the MSA model. Furthermore, since MSA does not prescribe a priori the endmembers to incorporate in the model, a multiple endmember selection method (MESMSA) was developed and tested. Photon recollision probabilities and interceptance fractions were estimated by fitting the model to airborne spectral reflectance and selected endmembers where then used to estimate the canopy radiation budget at each measured location.

  16. A mathematical model for maximizing the value of phase 3 drug development portfolios incorporating budget constraints and risk.

    PubMed

    Patel, Nitin R; Ankolekar, Suresh; Antonijevic, Zoran; Rajicic, Natasa

    2013-05-10

    We describe a value-driven approach to optimizing pharmaceutical portfolios. Our approach incorporates inputs from research and development and commercial functions by simultaneously addressing internal and external factors. This approach differentiates itself from current practices in that it recognizes the impact of study design parameters, sample size in particular, on the portfolio value. We develop an integer programming (IP) model as the basis for Bayesian decision analysis to optimize phase 3 development portfolios using expected net present value as the criterion. We show how this framework can be used to determine optimal sample sizes and trial schedules to maximize the value of a portfolio under budget constraints. We then illustrate the remarkable flexibility of the IP model to answer a variety of 'what-if' questions that reflect situations that arise in practice. We extend the IP model to a stochastic IP model to incorporate uncertainty in the availability of drugs from earlier development phases for phase 3 development in the future. We show how to use stochastic IP to re-optimize the portfolio development strategy over time as new information accumulates and budget changes occur.

  17. Theory, modeling and simulation: Annual report 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Dunning, T.H. Jr.; Garrett, B.C.

    1994-07-01

    Developing the knowledge base needed to address the environmental restoration issues of the US Department of Energy requires a fundamental understanding of molecules and their interactions in insolation and in liquids, on surfaces, and at interfaces. To meet these needs, the PNL has established the Environmental and Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) and will soon begin construction of a new, collaborative research facility devoted to advancing the understanding of environmental molecular science. Research in the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation program (TMS), which is one of seven research directorates in the EMSL, will play a critical role in understanding molecular processes important in restoring DOE`s research, development and production sites, including understanding the migration and reactions of contaminants in soils and groundwater, the development of separation process for isolation of pollutants, the development of improved materials for waste storage, understanding the enzymatic reactions involved in the biodegradation of contaminants, and understanding the interaction of hazardous chemicals with living organisms. The research objectives of the TMS program are to apply available techniques to study fundamental molecular processes involved in natural and contaminated systems; to extend current techniques to treat molecular systems of future importance and to develop techniques for addressing problems that are computationally intractable at present; to apply molecular modeling techniques to simulate molecular processes occurring in the multispecies, multiphase systems characteristic of natural and polluted environments; and to extend current molecular modeling techniques to treat complex molecular systems and to improve the reliability and accuracy of such simulations. The program contains three research activities: Molecular Theory/Modeling, Solid State Theory, and Biomolecular Modeling/Simulation. Extended abstracts are presented for 89 studies.

  18. Algorithm for model validation: Theory and applications

    PubMed Central

    Sornette, D.; Davis, A. B.; Ide, K.; Vixie, K. R.; Pisarenko, V.; Kamm, J. R.

    2007-01-01

    Validation is often defined as the process of determining the degree to which a model is an accurate representation of the real world from the perspective of its intended uses. Validation is crucial as industries and governments depend increasingly on predictions by computer models to justify their decisions. We propose to formulate the validation of a given model as an iterative construction process that mimics the often implicit process occurring in the minds of scientists. We offer a formal representation of the progressive build-up of trust in the model. Thus, we replace static claims on the impossibility of validating a given model by a dynamic process of constructive approximation. This approach is better adapted to the fuzzy, coarse-grained nature of validation. Our procedure factors in the degree of redundancy versus novelty of the experiments used for validation as well as the degree to which the model predicts the observations. We illustrate the methodology first with the maturation of quantum mechanics as the arguably best established physics theory and then with several concrete examples drawn from some of our primary scientific interests: a cellular automaton model for earthquakes, a multifractal random walk model for financial time series, an anomalous diffusion model for solar radiation transport in the cloudy atmosphere, and a computational fluid dynamics code for the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability. PMID:17420476

  19. Budgeting Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hentschke, Guilbert C.; Shaughnessy, John

    1973-01-01

    Discusses steps three and four in a budgeting process that uses Program Evaluation and Review Techniques (PERT). Step three involves developing time estimates and scheduling each of the activities in the PERT chart. Step four involves responsibility identification and coordination. (Author/JF)

  20. Battling Budgets

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Stacey

    2006-01-01

    Higher-education institutions are facing financial crises in their capital programs. Constant increases in the cost of oil, combined with material shortages in copper, steel and gypsum products, have contributed to an inexorable rise in the cost of construction. At the same time, capital budgets are decreasing. The result is that the education…

  1. Self model theory: learning from the future.

    PubMed

    Dowrick, Peter W

    2012-03-01

    This paper synthesizes findings and theoretical propositions across behavioral, cognitive, and neuropsychological theories, with significant new conceptualizations bearing upon processes of learning and performance. There is a need to explain ultrarapid learning within the framework of cognitive science. In video self modeling and in challenging circumstances, the speed of behavior change appears to be derived from feedforward, in which component behaviors (in the repertoire) are reconfigured to produce a new skill or level of performance. It is argued that 'self modeling' is fundamental to learning, and peer/other modeling serves as an alternative. Learning in this way produces a cognitive self-simulation which can be accessed to trigger a behavioral response in a future context. Related neurological processes are indicated by 'mental time travel' (MTT) and specific brain activity during the imagination (simulation) of future personal events. There is evidence that some brain mechanisms (mirror neurons), involved in immediate imitation, are differentially responsive to images of self versus other. MTT (to future events) in cognitive neuroscience has so far been discussed only in terms of prediction and planning not behavior change. These issues are brought together by self model theory. Conclusions drawn in this paper include discussions of the value in 'learning from the future' as a ubiquitous human ability. Overall, the propositions of this theory should stimulate diverse future research, linking neurological and behavioral contributions to cognitive science. WIREs Cogn Sci 2012, 3:215-230. doi: 10.1002/wcs.1156 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

  2. Advances in Bank Erosion Modelling at a Catchment-Scale and Its Significance to the Sediment Budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holman, I.; Janes, V.; O'Donnell, G. M.; Birkinshaw, S.; Kilsby, C. G.

    2014-12-01

    Channel bank erosion has been shown to contribute significantly to catchment sediment budgets, yet representation of this process in catchment models is often overly simplistic, or non-existent. In this study, the physically-based hydrological SHETRAN model has been modified to improve representation of channel bank erosion processes by incorporation of the influences of vegetation and channel sinuosity. The presence of vegetation on channel banks increases bank stability, reducing erosion rates. Large flood events have the potential to remove bank vegetation resulting in a sudden increase of bank erodibility, which then decreases over time as vegetation re-establishes. Within the updated model, erodibility coefficients throughout the catchment are temporally variable and respond to high magnitude discharge events to represent vegetation removal. The influence of further flood events during the vegetation recovery period is enhanced due to the increased erodibility, enabling the model to represent memory within the catchment. Meteorological conditions after high magnitude events influence the length of recovery time, which is also incorporated within the model. Channel sinuosity and channel curvature show a non-linear relationship with bank erosion due to the positioning of high-velocity flow within channels. The influence of sinuosity has been incorporated within the model by spatial variation of minimum and maximum bank erodibility coefficients according to variation of sinuosity within represented channels. The developed model has been applied to the Eden catchment, Cumbria, UK. The model has been validated using observed long-term bank erosion data from a GIS overlay methodology, indicating bank erosion contributes up to 11% of the annual catchment sediment budget. This paper will detail both the new modelling approach and accuracy of its application.

  3. Idealized numerical modeling of polar mesocyclones dynamics diagnosed by energy budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sergeev, Dennis; Stepanenko, Victor

    2014-05-01

    can be interpreted as the growth rate of the vortex) and energy conversion in the diagnostic equations for kinetic and available potential energy (APE). The energy budget equations are implemented in two forms. The first approach follows the scheme developed by Lorenz (1955) in which KE and APE are broken into a mean component and an eddy component forming a well-known energy cycle. The second method is based on the energy equations that are strictly derived from the governing equations of the numerical mesoscale model used. The latter approach, hence, takes into account all the approximations and numerical features used in the model. Some conclusions based on the comparison of the described methods are presented in the study. A series of high-resolution experiments is carried out using three-dimensional non-hydrostatic limited-area sigma-coordinate numerical model ReMeDy (Research Mesoscale Dynamics), being developed at Lomonosov Moscow State University [3]. An idealized basic state condition is used for all simulations. It is composed of the zonally oriented baroclinic zone over the sea surface partly covered with ice. To realize a baroclinic channel environment zero-gradient boundary conditions at the meridional lateral oundaries are imposed, while the zonal boundary conditions are periodic. The initialization of the mesocyclone is achieved by creating a small axis-symmetric vortex in the center of the model domain. The baroclinicity and stratification of the basic state, as well as the surface parameters, are varied in the typically observed range. References 1. Heinemann G, Øyvind S. 2013. Workshop On Polar Lows. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 94: ES123-ES126. 2. Yanase W, Niino H. 2006. Dependence of Polar Low Development on Baroclinicity and Physical Processes: An Idealized High-Resolution Experiment, J. Atmos. Sci. 64: 3044-3067. 3. Chechin DG et al. 2013. Idealized dry quasi 2-D mesoscale simulations of cold-air outbreaks over the marginal sea ice zone with fine

  4. Parameterisation and validation of a resource budget model for masting using spatiotemporal flowering data of individual trees.

    PubMed

    Abe, Tomoyuki; Tachiki, Yuuya; Kon, Hirokazu; Nagasaka, Akiko; Onodera, Kensuke; Minamino, Kazuhiro; Han, Qingmin; Satake, Akiko

    2016-09-01

    Synchronised and fluctuating reproduction by plant populations, called masting, is widespread in diverse taxonomic groups. Here, we propose a new method to explore the proximate mechanism of masting by combining spatiotemporal flowering data, biochemical analysis of resource allocation and mathematical modelling. Flowering data of 170 trees over 13 years showed the emergence of clustering with trees in a given cluster mutually synchronised in reproduction, which was successfully explained by resource budget models. Analysis of resources invested in the development of reproductive organs showed that parametric values used in the model are significantly different between nitrogen and carbon. Using a fully parameterised model, we showed that the observed flowering pattern is explained only when the interplay between nitrogen dynamics and climatic cues was considered. This result indicates that our approach successfully identified resource type-specific roles on masting and that the method is suitable for a wide range of plant species. PMID:27449602

  5. Bio-physical processes contribution to oxygen budget in the ETNA OMZ: a model based analysis study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koku Apetcho, Eyram; Montes, Ivonne; Fennel, Katja; Schneider, Birgit; Oschlies, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    We analyze the influence of physical processes on the oxygen distribution in the Eastern tropical North Atlantic (ETNA) oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) and their contribution to the oxygen budget in the oxygen minimum layer. A validation of the model shows a realistic representation of the main features. An improvement of the relative weak velocity observed in the model by a combination of higher resolution and appropriate wind forcing is proposed. The model diagnostics reveals that oxygen supply is mainly driven by advection. However, the importance of small scale processes is highlighted and it is observed that they potentially could hinder oxygen supply and thus contribute to ongoing depletion of oxygen. The main consumption mechanisms found in this modeling study are remineralization of DON and the 2 stages of nitrification.

  6. Development of a time-stepping sediment budget model for assessing land use impacts in large river basins.

    PubMed

    Wilkinson, S N; Dougall, C; Kinsey-Henderson, A E; Searle, R D; Ellis, R J; Bartley, R

    2014-01-15

    The use of river basin modelling to guide mitigation of non-point source pollution of wetlands, estuaries and coastal waters has become widespread. To assess and simulate the impacts of alternate land use or climate scenarios on river washload requires modelling techniques that represent sediment sources and transport at the time scales of system response. Building on the mean-annual SedNet model, we propose a new D-SedNet model which constructs daily budgets of fine sediment sources, transport and deposition for each link in a river network. Erosion rates (hillslope, gully and streambank erosion) and fine sediment sinks (floodplains and reservoirs) are disaggregated from mean annual rates based on daily rainfall and runoff. The model is evaluated in the Burdekin basin in tropical Australia, where policy targets have been set for reducing sediment and nutrient loads to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon from grazing and cropping land. D-SedNet predicted annual loads with similar performance to that of a sediment rating curve calibrated to monitored suspended sediment concentrations. Relative to a 22-year reference load time series at the basin outlet derived from a dynamic general additive model based on monitoring data, D-SedNet had a median absolute error of 68% compared with 112% for the rating curve. RMS error was slightly higher for D-SedNet than for the rating curve due to large relative errors on small loads in several drought years. This accuracy is similar to existing agricultural system models used in arable or humid environments. Predicted river loads were sensitive to ground vegetation cover. We conclude that the river network sediment budget model provides some capacity for predicting load time-series independent of monitoring data in ungauged basins, and for evaluating the impact of land management on river sediment load time-series, which is challenging across large regions in data-poor environments. PMID:23968738

  7. Development of a time-stepping sediment budget model for assessing land use impacts in large river basins.

    PubMed

    Wilkinson, S N; Dougall, C; Kinsey-Henderson, A E; Searle, R D; Ellis, R J; Bartley, R

    2014-01-15

    The use of river basin modelling to guide mitigation of non-point source pollution of wetlands, estuaries and coastal waters has become widespread. To assess and simulate the impacts of alternate land use or climate scenarios on river washload requires modelling techniques that represent sediment sources and transport at the time scales of system response. Building on the mean-annual SedNet model, we propose a new D-SedNet model which constructs daily budgets of fine sediment sources, transport and deposition for each link in a river network. Erosion rates (hillslope, gully and streambank erosion) and fine sediment sinks (floodplains and reservoirs) are disaggregated from mean annual rates based on daily rainfall and runoff. The model is evaluated in the Burdekin basin in tropical Australia, where policy targets have been set for reducing sediment and nutrient loads to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon from grazing and cropping land. D-SedNet predicted annual loads with similar performance to that of a sediment rating curve calibrated to monitored suspended sediment concentrations. Relative to a 22-year reference load time series at the basin outlet derived from a dynamic general additive model based on monitoring data, D-SedNet had a median absolute error of 68% compared with 112% for the rating curve. RMS error was slightly higher for D-SedNet than for the rating curve due to large relative errors on small loads in several drought years. This accuracy is similar to existing agricultural system models used in arable or humid environments. Predicted river loads were sensitive to ground vegetation cover. We conclude that the river network sediment budget model provides some capacity for predicting load time-series independent of monitoring data in ungauged basins, and for evaluating the impact of land management on river sediment load time-series, which is challenging across large regions in data-poor environments.

  8. Queuing theory models for computer networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Galant, David C.

    1989-01-01

    A set of simple queuing theory models which can model the average response of a network of computers to a given traffic load has been implemented using a spreadsheet. The impact of variations in traffic patterns and intensities, channel capacities, and message protocols can be assessed using them because of the lack of fine detail in the network traffic rates, traffic patterns, and the hardware used to implement the networks. A sample use of the models applied to a realistic problem is included in appendix A. Appendix B provides a glossary of terms used in this paper. This Ames Research Center computer communication network is an evolving network of local area networks (LANs) connected via gateways and high-speed backbone communication channels. Intelligent planning of expansion and improvement requires understanding the behavior of the individual LANs as well as the collection of networks as a whole.

  9. Compass models: Theory and physical motivations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nussinov, Zohar; van den Brink, Jeroen

    2015-01-01

    Compass models are theories of matter in which the couplings between the internal spin (or other relevant field) components are inherently spatially (typically, direction) dependent. A simple illustrative example is furnished by the 90° compass model on a square lattice in which only couplings of the form τixτjx (where {τia}a denote Pauli operators at site i ) are associated with nearest-neighbor sites i and j separated along the x axis of the lattice while τiyτjy couplings appear for sites separated by a lattice constant along the y axis. Similar compass-type interactions can appear in diverse physical systems. For instance, compass models describe Mott insulators with orbital degrees of freedom where interactions sensitively depend on the spatial orientation of the orbitals involved as well as the low-energy effective theories of frustrated quantum magnets, and a host of other systems such as vacancy centers, and cold atomic gases. The fundamental interdependence between internal (spin, orbital, or other) and external (i.e., spatial) degrees of freedom which underlies compass models generally leads to very rich behaviors, including the frustration of (semi-)classical ordered states on nonfrustrated lattices, and to enhanced quantum effects, prompting, in certain cases, the appearance of zero-temperature quantum spin liquids. As a consequence of these frustrations, new types of symmetries and their associated degeneracies may appear. These intermediate symmetries lie midway between the extremes of global symmetries and local gauge symmetries and lead to effective dimensional reductions. In this article, compass models are reviewed in a unified manner, paying close attention to exact consequences of these symmetries and to thermal and quantum fluctuations that stabilize orders via order-out-of-disorder effects. This is complemented by a survey of numerical results. In addition to reviewing past works, a number of other models are introduced and new results

  10. Incentive theory: II. Models for choice.

    PubMed

    Killeen, P R

    1982-09-01

    Incentive theory is extended to account for concurrent chained schedules of reinforcement. The basic model consists of additive contributions from the primary and secondary effects of reinforcers, which serve to direct the behavior activated by reinforcement. The activation is proportional to the rate of reinforcement and interacts multiplicatively with the directive effects. The two free parameters are q, the slope of the delay of reinforcement gradient, whose value is constant across many experiments, and b, a bias parameter. The model is shown to provide an excellent description of all results from studies that have varied the terminal-link schedules, and of many of the results from studies that have varied initial-link schedules. The model is extended to diverse modifications of the terminal links, such as varied amount of reinforcement, varied signaling of the terminal-link schedules, and segmentation of the terminal-link schedules. It is demonstrated that incentive theory provides an accurate and integrated account of many of the phenomena of choice.

  11. Economic contract theory tests models of mutualism

    PubMed Central

    Weyl, E. Glen; Frederickson, Megan E.; Yu, Douglas W.; Pierce, Naomi E.

    2010-01-01

    Although mutualisms are common in all ecological communities and have played key roles in the diversification of life, our current understanding of the evolution of cooperation applies mostly to social behavior within a species. A central question is whether mutualisms persist because hosts have evolved costly punishment of cheaters. Here, we use the economic theory of employment contracts to formulate and distinguish between two mechanisms that have been proposed to prevent cheating in host–symbiont mutualisms, partner fidelity feedback (PFF) and host sanctions (HS). Under PFF, positive feedback between host fitness and symbiont fitness is sufficient to prevent cheating; in contrast, HS posits the necessity of costly punishment to maintain mutualism. A coevolutionary model of mutualism finds that HS are unlikely to evolve de novo, and published data on legume–rhizobia and yucca–moth mutualisms are consistent with PFF and not with HS. Thus, in systems considered to be textbook cases of HS, we find poor support for the theory that hosts have evolved to punish cheating symbionts; instead, we show that even horizontally transmitted mutualisms can be stabilized via PFF. PFF theory may place previously underappreciated constraints on the evolution of mutualism and explain why punishment is far from ubiquitous in nature. PMID:20733067

  12. Economic contract theory tests models of mutualism.

    PubMed

    Weyl, E Glen; Frederickson, Megan E; Yu, Douglas W; Pierce, Naomi E

    2010-09-01

    Although mutualisms are common in all ecological communities and have played key roles in the diversification of life, our current understanding of the evolution of cooperation applies mostly to social behavior within a species. A central question is whether mutualisms persist because hosts have evolved costly punishment of cheaters. Here, we use the economic theory of employment contracts to formulate and distinguish between two mechanisms that have been proposed to prevent cheating in host-symbiont mutualisms, partner fidelity feedback (PFF) and host sanctions (HS). Under PFF, positive feedback between host fitness and symbiont fitness is sufficient to prevent cheating; in contrast, HS posits the necessity of costly punishment to maintain mutualism. A coevolutionary model of mutualism finds that HS are unlikely to evolve de novo, and published data on legume-rhizobia and yucca-moth mutualisms are consistent with PFF and not with HS. Thus, in systems considered to be textbook cases of HS, we find poor support for the theory that hosts have evolved to punish cheating symbionts; instead, we show that even horizontally transmitted mutualisms can be stabilized via PFF. PFF theory may place previously underappreciated constraints on the evolution of mutualism and explain why punishment is far from ubiquitous in nature.

  13. Polarimetric clutter modeling: Theory and application

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kong, J. A.; Lin, F. C.; Borgeaud, M.; Yueh, H. A.; Swartz, A. A.; Lim, H. H.; Shim, R. T.; Novak, L. M.

    1988-01-01

    The two-layer anisotropic random medium model is used to investigate fully polarimetric scattering properties of earth terrain media. The polarization covariance matrices for the untilted and tilted uniaxial random medium are evaluated using the strong fluctuation theory and distorted Born approximation. In order to account for the azimuthal randomness in the growth direction of leaves in tree and grass fields, an averaging scheme over the azimuthal direction is also applied. It is found that characteristics of terrain clutter can be identified through the analysis of each element of the covariance matrix. Theoretical results are illustrated by the comparison with experimental data provided by MIT Lincoln Laboratory for tree and grass fields.

  14. A matrix model from string field theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeze, Syoji

    2016-09-01

    We demonstrate that a Hermitian matrix model can be derived from level truncated open string field theory with Chan-Paton factors. The Hermitian matrix is coupled with a scalar and U(N) vectors which are responsible for the D-brane at the tachyon vacuum. Effective potential for the scalar is evaluated both for finite and large N. Increase of potential height is observed in both cases. The large N matrix integral is identified with a system of N ZZ branes and a ghost FZZT brane.

  15. Efficient perturbation theory for quantum lattice models.

    PubMed

    Hafermann, H; Li, G; Rubtsov, A N; Katsnelson, M I; Lichtenstein, A I; Monien, H

    2009-05-22

    We present a novel approach to long-range correlations beyond dynamical mean-field theory, through a ladder approximation to dual fermions. The new technique is applied to the two-dimensional Hubbard model. We demonstrate that the transformed perturbation series for the nonlocal dual fermions has superior convergence properties over standard diagrammatic techniques. The critical Néel temperature of the mean-field solution is suppressed in the ladder approximation, in accordance with quantum Monte Carlo results. An illustration of how the approach captures and allows us to distinguish short- and long-range correlations is given.

  16. Nature, theory and modelling of geophysical convective planetary boundary layers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zilitinkevich, Sergej

    2015-04-01

    horizontal branches of organised structures. This mechanism (Zilitinkevich et al., 2006), was overlooked in conventional local theories, such as the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, and convective heat/mass transfer law: Nu~Ra1/3, where Nu and Ra are the Nusselt number and Raleigh numbers. References Hellsten A., Zilitinkevich S., 2013: Role of convective structures and background turbulence in the dry convective boundary layer. Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 149, 323-353. Zilitinkevich, S.S., 1973: Shear convection. Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 3, 416-423. Zilitinkevich, S.S., 1991: Turbulent Penetrative Convection, Avebury Technical, Aldershot, 180 pp. Zilitinkevich S.S., 2012: The Height of the Atmospheric Planetary Boundary layer: State of the Art and New Development - Chapter 13 in 'National Security and Human Health Implications of Climate Change', edited by H.J.S. Fernando, Z. Klaić, J.L. McKulley, NATO Science for Peace and Security Series - C: Environmental Security (ISBN 978-94-007-2429-7), Springer, 147-161. Zilitinkevich S.S., 2013: Atmospheric Turbulence and Planetary Boundary Layers. Fizmatlit, Moscow, 248 pp. Zilitinkevich, S.S., Hunt, J.C.R., Grachev, A.A., Esau, I.N., Lalas, D.P., Akylas, E., Tombrou, M., Fairall, C.W., Fernando, H.J.S., Baklanov, and A., Joffre, S.M., 2006: The influence of large convective eddies on the surface layer turbulence. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 132, 1423-1456. Zilitinkevich S.S., Tyuryakov S.A., Troitskaya Yu. I., Mareev E., 2012: Theoretical models of the height of the atmospheric planetary boundary layer and turbulent entrainment at its upper boundary. Izvestija RAN, FAO, 48, No.1, 150-160 Zilitinkevich, S.S., Elperin, T., Kleeorin, N., Rogachevskii, I., Esau, I.N., 2013: A hierarchy of energy- and flux-budget (EFB) turbulence closure models for stably stratified geophysical flows. Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 146, 341-373.

  17. Using chemical organization theory for model checking

    PubMed Central

    Kaleta, Christoph; Richter, Stephan; Dittrich, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Motivation: The increasing number and complexity of biomodels makes automatic procedures for checking the models' properties and quality necessary. Approaches like elementary mode analysis, flux balance analysis, deficiency analysis and chemical organization theory (OT) require only the stoichiometric structure of the reaction network for derivation of valuable information. In formalisms like Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML), however, information about the stoichiometric coefficients required for an analysis of chemical organizations can be hidden in kinetic laws. Results: First, we introduce an algorithm that uncovers stoichiometric information that might be hidden in the kinetic laws of a reaction network. This allows us to apply OT to SBML models using modifiers. Second, using the new algorithm, we performed a large-scale analysis of the 185 models contained in the manually curated BioModels Database. We found that for 41 models (22%) the set of organizations changes when modifiers are considered correctly. We discuss one of these models in detail (BIOMD149, a combined model of the ERK- and Wnt-signaling pathways), whose set of organizations drastically changes when modifiers are considered. Third, we found inconsistencies in 5 models (3%) and identified their characteristics. Compared with flux-based methods, OT is able to identify those species and reactions more accurately [in 26 cases (14%)] that can be present in a long-term simulation of the model. We conclude that our approach is a valuable tool that helps to improve the consistency of biomodels and their repositories. Availability: All data and a JAVA applet to check SBML-models is available from http://www.minet.uni-jena.de/csb/prj/ot/tools Contact: dittrich@minet.uni-jena.de Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:19468053

  18. Telep@b Project: Towards a Model for eParticipation and a Case Study in Participatory Budgeting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paganelli, Federica; Giuli, Dino

    eParticipation concerns the use of ICT tools for facilitating the two-way communication between governments and citizens. Designing eParticipation activities is a complex task. Challenges include the need of interdisciplinary expertise and knowledge (for example, political, sociology, usability and technology domains) and the lack of widely accepted models and standards. This paper attempts to provide a model for eParticipation, aiming at providing guidelines for the design, implementation and management of eParticipation applications. This model has been put into practice for the design of an eParticipation portal in the framework of the Telep@b project. We also report on the experimental use of the portal services in a group of Tuscany municipalities for supporting participatory budget activities and future activities in a follow-on project (PAAS_Telep@b project).

  19. Budget management.

    PubMed

    Hughes, G

    1997-05-01

    Budgetary responsibility gives you more control. Take time to master the fine detail, ask questions of your management and finance colleagues about anything you do not understand (you will not lose face), and develop the skills of lateral thinking and creative accountancy. Even if your budget is repeatedly overspent do not take it personally, ensure that management are aware of it and have a good night's sleep. Do not worry about it.

  20. Mean-velocity profile of smooth channel flow explained by a cospectral budget model with wall-blockage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McColl, Kaighin A.; Katul, Gabriel G.; Gentine, Pierre; Entekhabi, Dara

    2016-03-01

    A series of recent studies has shown that a model of the turbulent vertical velocity variance spectrum (Fvv) combined with a simplified cospectral budget can reproduce many macroscopic flow properties of turbulent wall-bounded flows, including various features of the mean-velocity profile (MVP), i.e., the "law of the wall". While the approach reasonably models the MVP's logarithmic layer, the buffer layer displays insufficient curvature compared to measurements. The assumptions are re-examined here using a direct numerical simulation (DNS) dataset at moderate Reynolds number that includes all the requisite spectral and co-spectral information. Starting with several hypotheses for the cause of the "missing" curvature in the buffer layer, it is shown that the curvature deficit is mainly due to mismatches between (i) the modelled and DNS-observed pressure-strain terms in the cospectral budget and (ii) the DNS-observed Fvv and the idealized form used in previous models. By replacing the current parameterization for the pressure-strain term with an expansive version that directly accounts for wall-blocking effects, the modelled and DNS reported pressure-strain profiles match each other in the buffer and logarithmic layers. Forcing the new model with DNS-reported Fvv rather than the idealized form previously used reproduces the missing buffer layer curvature to high fidelity thereby confirming the "spectral link" between Fvv and the MVP across the full profile. A broad implication of this work is that much of the macroscopic properties of the flow (such as the MVP) may be derived from the energy distribution in turbulent eddies (i.e., Fvv) representing the microstate of the flow, provided the link between them accounts for wall-blocking.

  1. Application of Chaos Theory to Psychological Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blackerby, Rae Fortunato

    This dissertation shows that an alternative theoretical approach from physics--chaos theory--offers a viable basis for improved understanding of human beings and their behavior. Chaos theory provides achievable frameworks for potential identification, assessment, and adjustment of human behavior patterns. Most current psychological models fail to address the metaphysical conditions inherent in the human system, thus bringing deep errors to psychological practice and empirical research. Freudian, Jungian and behavioristic perspectives are inadequate psychological models because they assume, either implicitly or explicitly, that the human psychological system is a closed, linear system. On the other hand, Adlerian models that require open systems are likely to be empirically tenable. Logically, models will hold only if the model's assumptions hold. The innovative application of chaotic dynamics to psychological behavior is a promising theoretical development because the application asserts that human systems are open, nonlinear and self-organizing. Chaotic dynamics use nonlinear mathematical relationships among factors that influence human systems. This dissertation explores these mathematical relationships in the context of a sample model of moral behavior using simulated data. Mathematical equations with nonlinear feedback loops describe chaotic systems. Feedback loops govern the equations' value in subsequent calculation iterations. For example, changes in moral behavior are affected by an individual's own self-centeredness, family and community influences, and previous moral behavior choices that feed back to influence future choices. When applying these factors to the chaos equations, the model behaves like other chaotic systems. For example, changes in moral behavior fluctuate in regular patterns, as determined by the values of the individual, family and community factors. In some cases, these fluctuations converge to one value; in other cases, they diverge in

  2. PARFUME Theory and Model basis Report

    SciTech Connect

    Darrell L. Knudson; Gregory K Miller; G.K. Miller; D.A. Petti; J.T. Maki; D.L. Knudson

    2009-09-01

    The success of gas reactors depends upon the safety and quality of the coated particle fuel. The fuel performance modeling code PARFUME simulates the mechanical, thermal and physico-chemical behavior of fuel particles during irradiation. This report documents the theory and material properties behind vari¬ous capabilities of the code, which include: 1) various options for calculating CO production and fission product gas release, 2) an analytical solution for stresses in the coating layers that accounts for irradiation-induced creep and swelling of the pyrocarbon layers, 3) a thermal model that calculates a time-dependent temperature profile through a pebble bed sphere or a prismatic block core, as well as through the layers of each analyzed particle, 4) simulation of multi-dimensional particle behavior associated with cracking in the IPyC layer, partial debonding of the IPyC from the SiC, particle asphericity, and kernel migration (or amoeba effect), 5) two independent methods for determining particle failure probabilities, 6) a model for calculating release-to-birth (R/B) ratios of gaseous fission products that accounts for particle failures and uranium contamination in the fuel matrix, and 7) the evaluation of an accident condition, where a particle experiences a sudden change in temperature following a period of normal irradiation. The accident condi¬tion entails diffusion of fission products through the particle coating layers and through the fuel matrix to the coolant boundary. This document represents the initial version of the PARFUME Theory and Model Basis Report. More detailed descriptions will be provided in future revisions.

  3. Program Budgeting for Industrial Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gramberg, Merlyn Ludwig

    In recognition of the increasing concern for the expenditure of tax dollars and the resulting need for accountability in budgeting, this study provides a model for program budgeting at the collegiate level in industrial education. Course outlines for drafting and woodworking at the University of Northern Colorado were analyzed and activities were…

  4. Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Water and Salt Budgets of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.

    1996-01-01

    The annual flux of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean by the atmosphere and rivers is balanced by the export of sea ice and oceanic freshwater. Two 150-year simulations of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that the total inflow of water from the atmosphere and rivers increases by 10% primarily due to an increase in river discharge, the annual sea-ice export decreases by about half, the oceanic liquid water export increases, salinity decreases, sea-ice cover decreases, and the total mass and sea-surface height of the Arctic Ocean increase. The closed, compact, and multi-phased nature of the hydrologic cycle in the Arctic Ocean makes it an ideal test of water budgets that could be included in model intercomparisons.

  5. Earth Radiation Budget Science, 1978. [conferences

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    An earth radiation budget satellite system planned in order to understand climate on various temporal and spatial scales is considered. Topics discussed include: climate modeling, climate diagnostics, radiation modeling, radiation variability and correlation studies, cloudiness and the radiation budget, and radiation budget and related measurements in 1985 and beyond.

  6. Reverberation noise modeling using extreme value theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    La Cour, Brian; Luter, Robert

    2002-05-01

    Normalized matched filter output forms the basis of target detection in active sonar. In a target-free environment, the central theorem, if valid, predicts that the statistics of the envelope follow a Rayleigh distribution, and, to first approximation, this is indeed observed. However, well-known departures from the Rayleigh model are found in the tail end of observed distributions. Traditional approaches to this problem have focused on constructing a simple, parameterized, non-Rayleigh distribution which more closely models observations. This paper suggests a novel alternative which focuses on a robust method of modeling only the tails of the distribution in favor of the less important body. Results from extreme-value theory are used to fit a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to the empirical cumulative distribution function, conditioned on a large threshold value. [A random variable X has a GPD if P(X<=x)=1-(1+γx/σ)-1/γ for x>=0, σ>0, and γ real; γ=0 is the exponential distribution.] Estimates of γ and σ are discussed for a broad range of active sonar data, and the results are compared with fits to other popular non-Rayleigh models. The origins of non-Rayleighness are also considered, including finite-size effects, spatial and temporal correlations, and nonuniformity.

  7. Net mitigation potential of straw return to Chinese cropland: estimation with a full greenhouse gas budget model.

    PubMed

    Lu, Fei; Wang, Xiaoke; Han, Bing; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Duan, Xiaonan; Zheng, Hua

    2010-04-01

    Based on the carbon-nitrogen cycles and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and emission processes related to straw return and burning, a compound greenhouse gas budget model, the "Straw Return and Burning Model" (SRBM), was constructed to estimate the net mitigation potential of straw return to the soil in China. As a full GHG budget model, the SRBM addressed the following five processes: (1) soil carbon sequestration, (2) mitigation of synthetic N fertilizer substitution, (3) methane emission from rice paddies, (4) additional fossil fuel use for straw return, and (5) CH4 and N2O emissions from straw burning in the fields. Two comparable scenarios were created to reflect different degrees of implementation for straw return and straw burning. With GHG emissions and mitigation effects of the five processes converted into global warming potential (GWP), the net GHG mitigation was estimated. We concluded that (1) when the full greenhouse gas budget is considered, the net mitigation potential of straw return differs from that when soil carbon sequestration is considered alone; (2) implementation of straw return across a larger area of cropland in 10 provinces (i.e., Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan) will increase net GHG emission; (3) if straw return is promoted as a feasible mitigation measure in the remaining provinces, the total net mitigation potential before soil organic carbon (SOC) saturation will be 71.89 Tg CO2 equivalent (eqv)/yr, which is equivalent to 1.733% of the annual carbon emission from fossil fuel use in China in 2003; (4) after SOC saturation, only 13 of 21 provinces retain a relatively small but permanent net mitigation potential, while in the others the net GHG mitigation potential will gradually diminish; and (5) the major obstacle to the feasibility or permanence of straw return as a mitigation measure is the increased CH4 emission from rice paddies. The paper also suggests that comparable

  8. California's Methane Budget derived from CalNex P-3 Aircraft Observations and the WRF-STILT Lagrangian Transport Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santoni, G. W.; Xiang, B.; Kort, E. A.; Daube, B.; Andrews, A. E.; Sweeney, C.; Wecht, K.; Peischl, J.; Ryerson, T. B.; Angevine, W. M.; Trainer, M.; Nehrkorn, T.; Eluszkiewicz, J.; Wofsy, S. C.

    2012-12-01

    We present constraints on California emission inventories of methane (CH4) using atmospheric observations from nine NOAA P-3 flights during the California Nexus (CalNex) campaign in May and June of 2010. Measurements were made using a quantum cascade laser spectrometer (QCLS) and a cavity ring-down spectrometer (CRDS) and calibrated to NOAA standards in-flight. Five flights sampled above the northern and southern central valley and an additional four flights probed the south coast air basin, quantifying emissions from the Los Angeles basin. The data show large (>100 ppb) CH4 enhancements associated with point and area sources such as cattle and manure management, landfills, wastewater treatment, gas production and distribution infrastructure, and rice agriculture. We compare aircraft observations to modeled CH4 distributions by accounting for a) transport using the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model driven by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorology, b) emissions from inventories such as EDGAR and ones constructed from California-specific state and county databases, each gridded to 0.1° x 0.1° resolution, and c) spatially and temporally evolving boundary conditions such as GEOS-Chem and a NOAA aircraft profile measurement derived curtain imposed at the edge of the WRF domain. After accounting for errors associated with transport, planetary boundary layer height, lateral boundary conditions, seasonality of emissions, and the spatial resolution of surface emission prior estimates, we find that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) CH4 budget is a factor of 1.64 too low. Using a Bayesian inversion to the flight data, we estimate California's CH4 budget to be 2.5 TgCH4/yr, with emissions from cattle and manure management, landfills, rice, and natural gas infrastructure, representing roughly 82%, 26%, 9% and 32% (sum = 149% with other sources accounting for the additional 15%) of the current CARB CH4 budget estimate of 1.52 TgCH4

  9. Theory and modelling of nanocarbon phase stability.

    SciTech Connect

    Barnard, A. S.

    2006-01-01

    The transformation of nanodiamonds into carbon-onions (and vice versa) has been observed experimentally and has been modeled computationally at various levels of sophistication. Also, several analytical theories have been derived to describe the size, temperature and pressure dependence of this phase transition. However, in most cases a pure carbon-onion or nanodiamond is not the final product. More often than not an intermediary is formed, known as a bucky-diamond, with a diamond-like core encased in an onion-like shell. This has prompted a number of studies investigating the relative stability of nanodiamonds, bucky-diamonds, carbon-onions and fullerenes, in various size regimes. Presented here is a review outlining results of numerous theoretical studies examining the phase diagrams and phase stability of carbon nanoparticles, to clarify the complicated relationship between fullerenic and diamond structures at the nanoscale.

  10. Gravothermal Star Clusters - Theory and Computer Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spurzem, Rainer

    2010-11-01

    In the George Darwin lecture, delivered to the British Royal Astronomical Society in 1960 by Viktor A. Ambartsumian he wrote on the evolution of stellar systems that it can be described by the "dynamic evolution of a gravitating gas" complemented by "a statistical description of the changes in the physical states of stars". This talk will show how this physical concept has inspired theoretical modeling of star clusters in the following decades up to the present day. The application of principles of thermodynamics shows, as Ambartsumian argued in his 1960 lecture, that there is no stable state of equilibrium of a gravitating star cluster. The trend to local thermodynamic equilibrium is always disturbed by escaping stars (Ambartsumian), as well as by gravothermal and gravogyro instabilities, as it was detected later. Here the state-of-the-art of modeling the evolution of dense stellar systems based on principles of thermodynamics and statistical mechanics (Fokker-Planck approximation) will be reviewed. Recent progress including rotation and internal correlations (primordial binaries) is presented. The models have also very successfully been used to study dense star clusters around massive black holes in galactic nuclei and even (in a few cases) relativistic supermassive dense objects in centres of galaxies (here again briefly touching one of the many research fields of V.A. Ambartsumian). For the modern present time of high-speed supercomputing, where we are tackling direct N-body simulations of star clusters, we will show that such direct modeling supports and proves the concept of the statistical models based on the Fokker-Planck theory, and that both theoretical concepts and direct computer simulations are necessary to support each other and make scientific progress in the study of star cluster evolution.

  11. Growth potential of blue mussels (M. edulis) exposed to different salinities evaluated by a Dynamic Energy Budget model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maar, Marie; Saurel, Camille; Landes, Anja; Dolmer, Per; Petersen, Jens Kjerulf

    2015-08-01

    For blue mussels, Mytilus edulis, one major constrain in the Baltic Sea is the low salinities that reduce the efficiency of mussel production. However, the effects of living in low and variable salinity regimes are rarely considered in models describing mussel growth. The aim of the present study was to incorporate the effects of low salinity into an eco-physiological model of blue mussels and to identify areas suitable for mussel production. A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model was modified with respect to i) the morphological parameters (DW/WW-ratio, shape factor), ii) change in ingestion rate and iii) metabolic costs due to osmoregulation in different salinity environments. The modified DEB model was validated with experimental data from different locations in the Western Baltic Sea (including the Limfjorden) with salinities varying from 8.5 to 29.9 psu. The identified areas suitable for mussel production in the Baltic Sea are located in the Little Belt area, the Great Belt, the southern Kattegat and the Limfjorden according to the prevailing salinity regimes. The new model can be used for supporting site selection of new mussel nutrient extraction cultures in the Baltic Sea that suffers from high eutrophication symptoms or as part of integrated multi-trophic aquaculture production. The model can also be used to predict the effects of salinity changes on mussel populations e.g. in climate change studies.

  12. The Impact of Selective Logging on the Regional Carbon Budget at the Tapajos National Forest: a Modeling Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, M.; Asner, G. P.; Keller, M.; Knapp, D.

    2005-12-01

    Selective logging has been identified as an important form of land use in the Brazilian Amazon region based on studies in Large-scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment (LBA) Phase II (Nepstad et al., 1999; Asner et al., 2004). The ground and canopy damage caused by selective logging could have significant ecological, biogeochemical and micrometeorological consequences. Logging creates canopy gaps that affect photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) interception, latent and sensible heat fluxes, water stress and plant productivity. Also, it creates an increased amount of coarse woody debris (CWD), dead leaves and roots, which enlarge the carbon pools for respiration and fire. Furthermore, the biogeochemical processes in the tropical forest including the nutrient cycles and wildlife would also be altered. Unfortunately, previous studies on impacts of selective logging in that region are generally limited in space and/or time. In this study, a high-resolution (30 m by 30 m) version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model is applied to quantify the impact of selective logging on the regional carbon budget at the Tapajos National Forest. A unique aspect of this study is to take advantage of recent progress in characterizing explicitly the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest canopy gaps and CWD generation based upon field and remote sensing measurements (Asner et al., 2005; Keller et al., 2004). An undisturbed forest scenario and a logging scenario will be considered. The undisturbed forest scenario corresponds to the condition prior to logging and will serve as a baseline simulation for comparison. By assimilating satellite-derived vegetation indices, gap fractions, and CWD estimates before and after logging, we expect to simulate the spatial changes of carbon storage and carbon release caused by logging over time. Measurements from the km 83 flux tower located at the Tapajos National Forest will be used to constrain the model. This study constitutes our

  13. Cross's Nigrescence Model: From Theory to Scale to Theory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vandiver, Beverly J.; Fhagen-Smith, Peony E.; Cokley, Kevin O.; Cross, William E., Jr.; Worrell, Frank C.

    2001-01-01

    Describes the theoretical and empirical evolution of the revised Cross nigrescence identity model (W. E. Cross, 1991) in the context of developing a new multidimensional measure, the Cross Racial Identity Scale. The research resulted in an expanded nigrescence model, and preliminary factor analytic strategies support the existence of 6 subscales.…

  14. Estimating the impact of petroleum substances on survival in early life stages of cod (Gadus morhua) using the dynamic energy budget theory.

    PubMed

    Klok, Chris; Nordtug, Trond; Tamis, Jacqueline E

    2014-10-01

    To estimate the impact of accidental oil-spills on cod fisheries a model framework is developed in which a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model is applied to assess mortality caused by petroleum substances in early life stages. In this paper we report on a literature search and DEB analyses, aiming for cod specific DEB-parameters. Furthermore, we explored the relevance of Fathead minnow DEB-parameters as surrogate by comparing LC50 values calculated from DEB-parameters with literature. Cod specific DEB-parameters could not be estimated based on available literature. LC50 values calculated from Fathead minnow DEB-parameters were higher than literature LC50 for early life stages of fish. Applying an extrapolation factor of 50 to the DEB-parameters resulted in LC50 values that were below literature irrespective of life stage. Therefore, we propose to use the last as an estimate for early life stages in cod and recommend relevant experiments with individual petroleum substances on cod.

  15. Theory and Modeling in Support of Tether

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chang, C. L.; Bergeron, G.; Drobot, A. D.; Papadopoulos, K.; Riyopoulos, S.; Szuszczewicz, E.

    1999-01-01

    This final report summarizes the work performed by SAIC's Applied Physics Operation on the modeling and support of Tethered Satellite System missions (TSS-1 and TSS-1R). The SAIC team, known to be Theory and Modeling in Support of Tether (TMST) investigation, was one of the original twelve teams selected in July, 1985 for the first TSS mission. The accomplishments described in this report cover the period December 19, 1985 to September 31, 1999 and are the result of a continuous effort aimed at supporting the TSS missions in the following major areas. During the contract period, the SAIC's TMST investigation acted to: Participate in the planning and the execution on both of the TSS missions; Provide scientific understanding on the issues involved in the electrodynamic tether system operation prior to the TSS missions; Predict ionospheric conditions encountered during the re-flight mission (TSS-lR) based on realtime global ionosounde data; Perform post mission analyses to enhance our understanding on the TSS results. Specifically, we have 1) constructed and improved current collection models and enhanced our understanding on the current-voltage data; 2) investigated the effects of neutral gas in the current collection processes; 3) conducted laboratory experiments to study the discharge phenomena during and after tether-break; and 4) perform numerical simulations to understand data collected by plasma instruments SPES onboard the TSS satellite; Design and produce multi-media CD that highlights TSS mission achievements and convey the knowledge of the tether technology to the general public. Along with discussions of this work, a list of publications and presentations derived from the TMST investigation spanning the reporting period is compiled.

  16. Theory and Modeling of Asymmetric Catalytic Reactions.

    PubMed

    Lam, Yu-Hong; Grayson, Matthew N; Holland, Mareike C; Simon, Adam; Houk, K N

    2016-04-19

    Modern density functional theory and powerful contemporary computers have made it possible to explore complex reactions of value in organic synthesis. We describe recent explorations of mechanisms and origins of stereoselectivities with density functional theory calculations. The specific functionals and basis sets that are routinely used in computational studies of stereoselectivities of organic and organometallic reactions in our group are described, followed by our recent studies that uncovered the origins of stereocontrol in reactions catalyzed by (1) vicinal diamines, including cinchona alkaloid-derived primary amines, (2) vicinal amidophosphines, and (3) organo-transition-metal complexes. Two common cyclic models account for the stereoselectivity of aldol reactions of metal enolates (Zimmerman-Traxler) or those catalyzed by the organocatalyst proline (Houk-List). Three other models were derived from computational studies described in this Account. Cinchona alkaloid-derived primary amines and other vicinal diamines are venerable asymmetric organocatalysts. For α-fluorinations and a variety of aldol reactions, vicinal diamines form enamines at one terminal amine and activate electrophilically with NH(+) or NF(+) at the other. We found that the stereocontrolling transition states are cyclic and that their conformational preferences are responsible for the observed stereoselectivity. In fluorinations, the chair seven-membered cyclic transition states is highly favored, just as the Zimmerman-Traxler chair six-membered aldol transition state controls stereoselectivity. In aldol reactions with vicinal diamine catalysts, the crown transition states are favored, both in the prototype and in an experimental example, shown in the graphic. We found that low-energy conformations of cyclic transition states occur and control stereoselectivities in these reactions. Another class of bifunctional organocatalysts, the vicinal amidophosphines, catalyzes the (3 + 2) annulation

  17. The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) and its Contributions to Space Weather Research, the Flare Energy Budget, and Instrument Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamberlin, Phillip

    2008-01-01

    The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) is an empirical model of the solar irradiance spectrum from 0.1 to 190 nm at 1 nm spectral resolution and on a 1-minute time cadence. The goal of FISM is to provide accurate solar spectral irradiances over the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV: 0-200 nm) range as input for ionospheric and thermospheric models. The seminar will begin with a brief overview of the FISM model, and also how the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) will contribute to improving FISM. Some current studies will then be presented that use FISM estimations of the solar VUV irradiance to quantify the contributions of the increased irradiance from flares to Earth's increased thermospheric and ionospheric densites. Initial results will also be presented from a study looking at the electron density increases in the Martian atmosphere during a solar flare. Results will also be shown quantifying the VUV contributions to the total flare energy budget for both the impulsive and gradual phases of solar flares. Lastly, an example of how FISM can be used to simplify the design of future solar VUV irradiance instruments will be discussed, using the future NOAA GOES-R Extreme Ultraviolet and X-Ray Sensors (EXIS) space weather instrument.

  18. A Global Model Simulation of Aerosol Effects of Surface Radiation Budget- Toward Understanding of the "Dimming to Brightening" Transition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, Mian; Diehl, Thomas; Bian, Huisheng; Yu, Hongbin

    2008-01-01

    We present a global model study on the role aerosols play in the change of solar radiation at Earth's surface that transitioned from a decreasing (dimming) trend to an increasing (brightening) trend. Our primary objective is to understand the relationship between the long-term trends of aerosol emission, atmospheric burden, and surface solar radiation. More specifically, we use the recently compiled comprehensive global emission datasets of aerosols and precursors from fuel combustion, biomass burning, volcanic eruptions and other sources from 1980 to 2006 to simulate long-term variations of aerosol distributions and optical properties, and then calculate the multi-decadal changes of short-wave radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere by coupling the GOCART model simulated aerosols with the Goddard radiative transfer model. The model results are compared with long-term observational records from ground-based networks and satellite data. We will address the following critical questions: To what extent can the observed surface solar radiation trends, known as the transition from dimming to brightening, be explained by the changes of anthropogenic and natural aerosol loading on global and regional scales? What are the relative contributions of local emission and long-range transport to the surface radiation budget and how do these contributions change with time?

  19. A Mercury Transport and Fate Model for Mass Budget Assessment of Mercury Cycling in Lake Michigan

    EPA Science Inventory

    A mercury mass balance model was developed to describe and evaluate the fate, transport, and biogeochemical transformations of mercury in Lake Michigan. Coupling with total suspendable solids (TSS) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), the mercury transport and fate model simulates...

  20. Comparison of rainfall based SPI drought indices with SMDI and ETDI indices derived from a soil water budget model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Houcine, A.; Bargaoui, Z.

    2012-04-01

    Modelling soil water budget is a key issue for assessing drought awareness indices based on soil moisture estimation. The aim of the study is to compare drought indices based on rainfall time series to those based on soil water content time series and evapotranspiration time series. To this end, a vertically averaged water budget over the root zone is implemented to assist the estimation of evapotranspiration flux. A daily time step is adopted to run the water budget model for a lumped watershed of 250 km2 under arid climate where recorded meteorological and hydrological data are available for a ten year period. The water balance including 7 parameters is computed including evapotranspiration, runoff and leakage. Soil properties related parameters are derived according to pedo transfer functions while two remaining parameters are considered as data driven and are subject to calibration. The model is calibrated using daily hydro meteorological data (solar radiation, air temperature, air humidity, mean areal rainfall) as well as daily runoff records and also average annual (or regional) evapotranspiration. The latter is estimated using an empirical sub-model. A set of acceptable solutions is identified according to the values of the Nash coefficients for annual and decadal runoffs as well as the relative bias for average annual evapotranspiration. Using these acceptable solutions several drought indices are computed: SPI (standard precipitation index), SMDI (soil moisture deficit index) and ETDI (evapotranspiration deficit index). While SPI indicators are based only on monthly precipitation time series, SMDI are based on weekly mean soil water content as computed by the hydrological model. On the other hand ETDI indices are based on weekly mean potential and actual evapotranspirations as estimated by the meteorological and hydrological models. For SPI evaluation various time scales are considered from one to twelve months (SPI1, SPI3, SPI6, SPI9 and SPI12). For all

  1. Chaos Theory as a Model for Managing Issues and Crises.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Priscilla

    1996-01-01

    Uses chaos theory to model public relations situations in which the salient feature is volatility of public perceptions. Discusses the premises of chaos theory and applies them to issues management, the evolution of interest groups, crises, and rumors. Concludes that chaos theory is useful as an analogy to structure image problems and to raise…

  2. Theory and modeling of active brazing.

    SciTech Connect

    van Swol, Frank B.; Miller, James Edward; Lechman, Jeremy B.; Givler, Richard C.

    2013-09-01

    Active brazes have been used for many years to produce bonds between metal and ceramic objects. By including a relatively small of a reactive additive to the braze one seeks to improve the wetting and spreading behavior of the braze. The additive modifies the substrate, either by a chemical surface reaction or possibly by alloying. By its nature, the joining process with active brazes is a complex nonequilibrium non-steady state process that couples chemical reaction, reactant and product diffusion to the rheology and wetting behavior of the braze. Most of the these subprocesses are taking place in the interfacial region, most are difficult to access by experiment. To improve the control over the brazing process, one requires a better understanding of the melting of the active braze, rate of the chemical reaction, reactant and product diffusion rates, nonequilibrium composition-dependent surface tension as well as the viscosity. This report identifies ways in which modeling and theory can assist in improving our understanding.

  3. Development of Advanced Eco-hydrologic and Biogeochemical Coupling Model to Re-evaluate Greenhouse Gas Budget of Biosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakayama, T.; Maksyutov, S. S.

    2015-12-01

    Inland waters including rivers, lakes, and groundwater are suggested to act as a transport pathway for water and dissolved substances, and play some role in continental biogeochemical cycling (Cole et al., 2007; Battin et al., 2009). The authors have developed process-based National Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology (NICE) model (2014, 2015, etc.), which includes feedback between hydrologic-geomorphic-ecological processes. In this study, NICE was further developed to couple with various biogeochemical cycle models in biosphere, those for water quality in aquatic ecosystems, and those for carbon weathering. The NICE-biogeochemical coupling model incorporates connectivity of the biogeochemical cycle accompanied by hydrologic cycle between surface water and groundwater, hillslopes and river networks, and other intermediate regions. The model also includes reaction between inorganic and organic carbons, and its relation to nitrogen and phosphorus in terrestrial-aquatic continuum. The coupled model showed to improve the accuracy of inundation stress mechanism such as photosynthesis and primary production, which attributes to improvement of CH4 flux in wetland sensitive to fluctuations of shallow groundwater. The model also simulated CO2 evasion from inland water in global scale, and was relatively in good agreement in empirical relation (Aufdenkampe et al., 2011) which has relatively an uncertainty in the calculated flux because of pCO2 data missing in some region and effect of small tributaries, etc. Further, the model evaluated how the expected CO2 evasion might change as inland waters become polluted with nutrients and eutrophication increases from agriculture and urban areas (Pacheco et al., 2013). This advanced eco-hydrologic and biogeochemical coupling model would play important role to re-evaluate greenhouse gas budget of the biosphere, and to bridge gap between top-down and bottom-up approaches (Battin et al., 2009; Regnier et al., 2013).

  4. Reconstructing Constructivism: Causal Models, Bayesian Learning Mechanisms, and the Theory Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M.

    2012-01-01

    We propose a new version of the "theory theory" grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework…

  5. Object relations theory and activity theory: a proposed link by way of the procedural sequence model.

    PubMed

    Ryle, A

    1991-12-01

    An account of object relations theory (ORT), represented in terms of the procedural sequence model (PSM), is compared to the ideas of Vygotsky and activity theory (AT). The two models are seen to be compatible and complementary and their combination offers a satisfactory account of human psychology, appropriate for the understanding and integration of psychotherapy. PMID:1786224

  6. The effect of simple to sophisticated surface processes on the surface energy and hydrologic budgets of a general circulation model

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.K.

    1991-06-01

    Using the Community Climate Model (CCM) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), comparisons have been made of three multi-three simulations in which there is a varying degree of complexity in the land surface parameterization but the model version and prescribed sea surface temperatures are the same. The land surface parameterizations employed are a simple prescription of soil moisture (based on surface type), a 15 cm bucket-type soil moisture and Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) (which, for the version used, simulates a vegetative canopy and two soil layers). This study has shown that the treatment of the surface in a general circulation model (GCM) can effect the surface energy and hydrologic budgets. Both a simple bucket and more sophisticated parameterization (BATS) led to generally drier conditions over land in the summer hemisphere. These drier conditions were noted with a decrease in precipitation and latent heat flux. With the BATS simulation, the decreased latent heat flux over land was accompanied by a strong increase in sensible heat flux due to an increase in net radiation. With the BATS simulation it is difficult to discern if the changes are due to more detailed treatment to the surface or the inclusion of a diurnal cycle. 8 refs., 5 figs.

  7. Annual variation in carbon budget using remote-sensing data and a process model in Borneo Island, Southeast Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adachi, M.; Ito, A.; Takeuchi, W.; Yamagata, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD) is one of the most important carbon emission reduction efforts in the tropical region. Deforestation and land use changes are human activities with major impact on the regional carbon budged and the other greenhouse gases (CH4 and N2O) emissions. Forest carbon biomass in Southeast Asia is largest in Asia region; however, the area of primary forest had continuously decreased due to land-use conversion. The objective of the present study was to evaluate carbon budged and greenhouse gases induced by deforestation from Borneo Island. We used time-series satellite remote-sensing data to track deforestation history in Borneo Island, Southeast Asia, and estimated the resulting forest carbon budget using a process-based model (VISIT: Vegetation Integrative SImulator for Trace gases). The forest/non-forest area was mapped by applying the ALOS/PALSAR-calibrated threshold value to MODIS, SPOT-VEGETATION, and NOAA-AVHRR images. The model allowed us to estimate changes in carbon budged and greenhouse gases by human disturbances, including land-use conversion from primary forest to cropland (e.g., oil-palm plantation). The estimated carbon stocks, budged, and greenhouse gases were verified using field observation of previous studies at some point of Borneo Island. Our results suggested that the southern part of Borneo Island was a large carbon source due to deforestation, although the VISIT model need be revised to account for tropical peatland.

  8. Transports and budgets of volume, heat, and salt from a global eddy-resolving ocean model

    SciTech Connect

    McCann, M.P.; Semtner, A.J. Jr.; Chervin, R.M.

    1994-07-01

    The results from an integration of a global ocean circulation model have been condensed into an analysis of the volume, heat, and salt transports among the major ocean basins. Transports are also broken down between the model`s Ekman, thermocline, and deep layers. Overall, the model does well. Horizontal exchanges of mass, heat, and salt between ocean basins have reasonable values: and the volume of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) transport is in general agreement with what limited observations exist. On a global basis the zonally integrated meridional heat transport is poleward at all latitudes except for the latitude band 30{degrees}S to 45{degrees}S. This anomalous transport is most likely a signature of the model`s inability to form Antarctic Intermediate (AAIW) and Antarctic bottom water (AABW) properly. Eddy heat transport is strong at the equator where its convergence heats the equatorial Pacific about twice as much as it heats the equatorial Atlantic. The greater heating in the Pacific suggests that mesoscale eddies may be a vital mechanism for warming and maintaining an upwelling portion of the global conveyor-belt circulation. The model`s fresh water transport compares well with observations. However, in the Atlantic there is an excessive southward transport of fresh water due to the absence of the Mediterranean outflow and weak northward flow of AAIW. Perhaps the model`s greatest weakness is the lack of strong AAIW and AABW circulation cells. Accurate thermohaline forcing in the North Atlantic (based on numerous hydrographic observations) helps the model adequately produce NADW. In contrast, the southern ocean is an area of sparse observation. Better thermohaline observations in this area may be needed if models such as this are to produce the deep convection that will achieve more accurate simulations of the global 3-dimensional circulation. 41 refs., 18 figs., 1 tab.

  9. Global simulation of tropospheric O3-NO x -hydrocarbon chemistry: 2. Model evaluation and global ozone budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yuhang; Logan, Jennifer A.; Jacob, Daniel J.

    1998-05-01

    Results from a global three-dimensional model for tropospheric O3-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry are presented and evaluated with surface, ozonesonde, and aircraft measurements. Seasonal variations and regional distributions of ozone, NO, peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN), CO, ethane, acetone, and H2O2 are examined. The model reproduces observed NO and PAN concentrations to within a factor of 2 for a wide range of tropospheric regions including the upper troposphere but tends to overestimate HNO3 concentrations in the remote troposphere (sometimes several fold). This discrepancy implies a missing sink for HNO3 that does not lead to rapid recycling of NOx; only in the upper troposphere over the tropical South Atlantic would a fast conversion of HNO3 to NOx improve the model simulation for NOx. Observed concentrations of acetone are reproduced in the model by including a large biogenic source (15 Tg C yr-1), which accounts for 40% of the estimated global source of acetone (37 Tg C yr-1). Concentrations of H2O2 in various regions of the troposphere are simulated usually to within a factor of 2, providing a test for HOx chemistry in the model. The model reproduces well the observed concentrations and seasonal variations of ozone in the troposphere, with some exceptions including an underestimate of the vertical gradient across the tropical trade wind inversion. A global budget analysis in the model indicates that the supply and loss of tropospheric ozone are dominated by photochemistry within the troposphere and that NOx. emitted in the southern hemisphere is twice as efficient at producing ozone as NOx emitted in the northern hemisphere.

  10. A solution to the global height datum problem based on satellite derived global models and the corresponding error budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barzaghi, R.; Gatti, A.; Reguzzoni, M.; Venuti, G.

    2012-04-01

    The global height datum problem, that is the determination of biases of different height systems at global scale, is revised and two solutions are proposed. As it is well known, biased heights enter into the computation of terrestrial gravity anomalies, which in turn are used for geoid determination. Hence, these biases enter as secondary or indirect effect also in such a geoid model. In contrast to terrestrial gravity anomalies, gravity and geoid models derived from satellite gravity missions, and in particular GRACE and GOCE, do not suffer from those inconsistencies. Thus, these models can be profitably used in estimating the existing height system biases. Two approaches have been studied. The first one compares the gravity potential coefficients in the range of degrees from 100 to 200 of an unbiased gravity field from GOCE with those of the combined model EGM2008 that in this range are affected by the height biases. The second approach compares height anomalies derived from GNSS ellipsoidal heights and biased normal heights, with anomalies derived from an anomalous potential which combines a satellite-only model up to degree 200 and a high-resolution global model above 200. Numerical tests have been devised to prove the effectiveness of the two methods, in terms of variances of the biases to be estimated. This error budget analysis depends on the observation accuracies as well as of their number and spatial distribution. The impact of the error covariance structure of the GOCE and EGM2008 models has been evaluated together with the impact of the observation network design.

  11. A Multi-Model Comparison of Black Carbon Budgets in the Arctic Region.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmood, R.; von Salzen, K.; Flanner, M.; Sand, M.; Langner, J.; Wang, H.; Huang, L.

    2015-12-01

    In this study we quantify modeled aerosol processes related to black carbon (BC) concentrations in the Arctic region in several general circulation models used by the Expert Group on Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP). All models simulated well the observed seasonal cycle of BC concentrations in the high Canadian Arctic region, however, most models (except CanAM) underestimate the total concentrations. Transport of BC from lower latitudes is the major source for the Arctic region where emissions are small. The models produce similar seasonal cycle of BC transport towards the Arctic with maximum transport in July. However, substantial differences were found among the models in simulating BC burdens and vertical distributions with some models producing very week seasonal cycle while others producing stronger seasonality. The annual mean BC residence times in models also differs markedly with CanAM having the shortest residence times followed by SMHI-MATCH, CESM and NorESM. There are substantial differences among the models in simulating the relative role of wet and dry deposition rates which is one of the major factors causing variations in the seasonality of BC burdens in the models. Similarly, significant differences in wet deposition efficiencies among the models exist and are the leading cause of differences in simulated BC burdens. To further explore these processes, we performed several sensitivity tests in CanAM and CESM. Overall, the results indicate that scavenging of BC in convective clouds as compared to simulations without convective BC scavenging substantially increases the overall efficiency of BC wet deposition which leads to low BC burdens and a more pronounced seasonal cycle.

  12. Implementation ambiguity: The fifth element long lost in uncertainty budgets for land biogeochemical modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, J.; Riley, W. J.

    2015-12-01

    Previous studies have identified four major sources of predictive uncertainty in modeling land biogeochemical (BGC) processes: (1) imperfect initial conditions (e.g., assumption of preindustrial equilibrium); (2) imperfect boundary conditions (e.g., climate forcing data); (3) parameterization (type I equifinality); and (4) model structure (type II equifinality). As if that were not enough to cause substantial sleep loss in modelers, we propose here a fifth element of uncertainty that results from implementation ambiguity that occurs when the model's mathematical description is translated into computational code. We demonstrate the implementation ambiguity using the example of nitrogen down regulation, a necessary process in modeling carbon-climate feedbacks. We show that, depending on common land BGC model interpretations of the governing equations for mineral nitrogen, there are three different implementations of nitrogen down regulation. We coded these three implementations in the ACME land model (ALM), and explored how they lead to different preindustrial and contemporary land biogeochemical states and fluxes. We also show how this implementation ambiguity can lead to different carbon-climate feedback estimates across the RCP scenarios. We conclude by suggesting how to avoid such implementation ambiguity in ESM BGC models.

  13. Bringing the Budget Back into Academic Work Allocation Models: A Management Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Robertson, Michael; Germov, John

    2015-01-01

    Issues surrounding increasingly constrained resources and reducing levels of sector-based funding require consideration of a different Academic Work Allocation Model (AWAM) approach. Evidence from the literature indicates that an effective work allocation model is founded on the principles of equity and transparency in the distribution and…

  14. HCMM energy budget data as a model input for assessing regions of high potential groundwater pollution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, D. G. (Principal Investigator); Tunheim, J. A.; Heilman, J.

    1977-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. The finite difference model was used to calculate the differences in surface temperature between two hypothetical sites which result from a temperature difference at 50 cm due to the presence of shallow ground water at one of the sites. Although qualitative results of the model seemed consistant with experimental results, further evaluation showed a need for taking account of differences in thermal conductivity due to different moisture profiles at the two sites considered.

  15. Gaining insight in the interaction of zinc and population density with a combined dynamic energy budget and population model.

    PubMed

    Klok, Chris

    2008-12-01

    Laboratory tests are typically conducted under optimal conditions testing the single effect of a toxicant In the field, due to suboptimal conditions, density dependence can both diminish and enhance effects of toxicants on populations. A review of the literature indicated that general insight on interaction of density and toxicants is lacking, and therefore no predictions on their combined action can be made. In this paper the influence of zinc was tested at different population densities on the demographic rates: growth, reproduction, and survival in the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus. Changes in these rates were extrapolated with a combined Dynamic energy budget (DEB) and a population model to assess consequences at the population level. Inference from the DEB model indicated that density decreased the assimilation of food whereas zinc increased the maintenance costs. The combined effects of density and zinc resulted in a decrease in the intrinsic rate of population increase which suddenly dropped to zero at combinations of zinc and density where development is so strongly retarded that individuals do not mature. This already happened at zinc levels where zinc induced mortality is low and therefore density enhances zinc effects and density dependent compensation is not expected. PMID:19192801

  16. Rational Budgeting? The Stanford Case.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chaffee, Ellen Earle

    The budget decision making process at Stanford University, California, from 1970 through 1979 was evaluated in relation to the allocation of general funds to 38 academic departments. Using Simon's theory of bounded rationality and an organizational level of analysis, the Stanford decision process was tested for its rationality through…

  17. A Quantitative Causal Model Theory of Conditional Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fernbach, Philip M.; Erb, Christopher D.

    2013-01-01

    The authors propose and test a causal model theory of reasoning about conditional arguments with causal content. According to the theory, the acceptability of modus ponens (MP) and affirming the consequent (AC) reflect the conditional likelihood of causes and effects based on a probabilistic causal model of the scenario being judged. Acceptability…

  18. Program evaluation models and related theories: AMEE guide no. 67.

    PubMed

    Frye, Ann W; Hemmer, Paul A

    2012-01-01

    This Guide reviews theories of science that have influenced the development of common educational evaluation models. Educators can be more confident when choosing an appropriate evaluation model if they first consider the model's theoretical basis against their program's complexity and their own evaluation needs. Reductionism, system theory, and (most recently) complexity theory have inspired the development of models commonly applied in evaluation studies today. This Guide describes experimental and quasi-experimental models, Kirkpatrick's four-level model, the Logic Model, and the CIPP (Context/Input/Process/Product) model in the context of the theories that influenced their development and that limit or support their ability to do what educators need. The goal of this Guide is for educators to become more competent and confident in being able to design educational program evaluations that support intentional program improvement while adequately documenting or describing the changes and outcomes-intended and unintended-associated with their programs.

  19. Program evaluation models and related theories: AMEE guide no. 67.

    PubMed

    Frye, Ann W; Hemmer, Paul A

    2012-01-01

    This Guide reviews theories of science that have influenced the development of common educational evaluation models. Educators can be more confident when choosing an appropriate evaluation model if they first consider the model's theoretical basis against their program's complexity and their own evaluation needs. Reductionism, system theory, and (most recently) complexity theory have inspired the development of models commonly applied in evaluation studies today. This Guide describes experimental and quasi-experimental models, Kirkpatrick's four-level model, the Logic Model, and the CIPP (Context/Input/Process/Product) model in the context of the theories that influenced their development and that limit or support their ability to do what educators need. The goal of this Guide is for educators to become more competent and confident in being able to design educational program evaluations that support intentional program improvement while adequately documenting or describing the changes and outcomes-intended and unintended-associated with their programs. PMID:22515309

  20. Consistency of Earth Radiation Budget Experiment bidirectional models and the observed anisotropy of reflected sunlight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baldwin, Daniel G.; Coakley, James A., Jr.

    1991-01-01

    The anisotropy of the radiance field estimated from bidirectional models derived from Nimbus 7 ERB scanner data is compared with the anisotropy observed with the ERB Experiment (ERBE) scanner aboard the ERB satellite. The results of averaging over groups of 40 ERBE scanner scan lines for a period of a month revealed significant differences between the modeled and the observed anisotropy for given scene types and the sun-earth-satellite viewing geometries. By comparing the radiative fluxes derived using the observed anisotropy with those derived assuming isotropic reflection, it is concluded that a reasonable estimate for the maximum error due to the use of incorrect bidirectional models is a bias of about 4 percent for a typical 2.5 deg latitude-longitude monthly mean, and an rms error of 15 percent.

  1. HCMM energy budget data as a model input for assessing regions of high potential groundwater pollution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, D. G. (Principal Investigator); Heilman, J.; Tunheim, J. A.; Baumberger, V.

    1978-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. To investigate the general relationship between surface temperature and soil moisture profiles, a series of model calculations were carried out. Soil temperature profiles were calculated during a complete diurnal cycle for a variety of moisture profiles. Preliminary results indicate the surface temperature difference between two sites measured at about 1400 hours is related to the difference in soil moisture within the diurnal damping depth (about 50 cm). The model shows this temperature difference to vary considerably throughout the diurnal cycle.

  2. Assessment of Wireless Link Budget in a Satellite by Modelling Techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gineste, P.-N.; Herlem, Y.; Outay, A.; Pelissou, P.

    2012-05-01

    The present study is related to the ESA/ASTRIUM contract n°4500082825 entitled "Wireless Intra- Spacecraft communications", whose objectives cover the design, development and validation of a RF wireless communications system for use in spacecraft Assembly Integration and Verification (AIV). This paper presents the main outcomes of this study, whose main objective was to assess, by modelling techniques, the possibility of using wireless communication inside satellite for AIT (Assembly, Integration and Tests) purposes. Comparisons with tests have been done in order to validate the numerical model and statistic data have been established.

  3. Studies of the Earth Energy Budget and Water Cycle Using Satellite Observations and Model Analyses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Campbell, G. G.; VonderHarr, T. H.; Randel, D. L.; Kidder, S. Q.

    1997-01-01

    During this research period we have utilized the ERBE data set in comparisons to surface properties and water vapor observations in the atmosphere. A relationship between cloudiness and surface temperature anomalies was found. This same relationship was found in a general circulation model, verifying the model. The attempt to construct a homogeneous time series from Nimbus 6, Nimbus 7 and ERBE data is not complete because we are still waiting for the ERBE reanalysis to be completed. It will be difficult to merge the Nimbus 6 data in because its observations occurred when the average weather was different than the other periods, so regression adjustments are not effective.

  4. Large field inflation models from higher-dimensional gauge theories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Furuuchi, Kazuyuki; Koyama, Yoji

    2015-02-01

    Motivated by the recent detection of B-mode polarization of CMB by BICEP2 which is possibly of primordial origin, we study large field inflation models which can be obtained from higher-dimensional gauge theories. The constraints from CMB observations on the gauge theory parameters are given, and their naturalness are discussed. Among the models analyzed, Dante's Inferno model turns out to be the most preferred model in this framework.

  5. Large field inflation models from higher-dimensional gauge theories

    SciTech Connect

    Furuuchi, Kazuyuki; Koyama, Yoji

    2015-02-23

    Motivated by the recent detection of B-mode polarization of CMB by BICEP2 which is possibly of primordial origin, we study large field inflation models which can be obtained from higher-dimensional gauge theories. The constraints from CMB observations on the gauge theory parameters are given, and their naturalness are discussed. Among the models analyzed, Dante’s Inferno model turns out to be the most preferred model in this framework.

  6. GEOtop, a model with coupled water and energy budgets and non linear hydrological interactions. (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Endrizzi, S.; Gruber, S.; Dall'Amico, M.; Rigon, R.

    2013-12-01

    This contribution describes the new version of GEOtop which emerges after almost eight years of development from the original version. GEOtop now integrate the 3D Richards equation with a new numerical method; improvements were made on the treatment of surface waters by using the shallow water equation. The freezing-soil module was greatly improved, and the evapotranspiration -vegetation modelling is now based on a double layer scheme. Here we discuss the rational of each choice that was made, and we compare the differences between the actual solutions and the old solutions. In doing we highlight the issues that we faced during the development, including the trade-off between complexity and simplicity of the code, the requirements of a shared development, the different branches that were opened during the evolution of the code, and why we think that a code like GEOtop is indeed necessary. Models where the hydrological cycle is simplified can be built on the base of perceptual models that neglects some fundamental aspects of the hydrological processes, of which some examples are presented. At the same time, also process-based models like GEOtop can indeed neglect some fundamental process: but this is made evident with the comparison with measurements, especially when data are imposed ex-ante, instead than calibrated.

  7. Teaching Wound Care Management: A Model for the Budget Conscious Educator

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berry, David C.

    2012-01-01

    For the author, the concept of wound care has always been a challenging topic to demonstrate. How to teach the concept without having a student in need of wound care or without having to spend money to buy another simulation manikin/model? The author has recently created a simulation to demonstrate and practice the cleaning, closing, and dressing…

  8. Theory of stellar convection - II. First stellar models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasetto, S.; Chiosi, C.; Chiosi, E.; Cropper, M.; Weiss, A.

    2016-07-01

    We present here the first stellar models on the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram, in which convection is treated according to the new scale-free convection theory (SFC theory) by Pasetto et al. The aim is to compare the results of the new theory with those from the classical, calibrated mixing-length (ML) theory to examine differences and similarities. We integrate the equations describing the structure of the atmosphere from the stellar surface down to a few per cent of the stellar mass using both ML theory and SFC theory. The key temperature over pressure gradients, the energy fluxes, and the extension of the convective zones are compared in both theories. The analysis is first made for the Sun and then extended to other stars of different mass and evolutionary stage. The results are adequate: the SFC theory yields convective zones, temperature gradients ∇ and ∇e, and energy fluxes that are very similar to those derived from the `calibrated' MT theory for main-sequence stars. We conclude that the old scale dependent ML theory can now be replaced with a self-consistent scale-free theory able to predict correct results, as it is more physically grounded than the ML theory. Fundamentally, the SFC theory offers a deeper insight of the underlying physics than numerical simulations.

  9. The chlorine budget of the present-day atmosphere - A modeling study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weisenstein, Debra K.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Sze, Nien-Dak

    1992-01-01

    The contribution of source gases to the total amount of inorganic chlorine (ClY) is examined analytically with a time-dependent model employing 11 source gases. The source-gas emission data are described, and the modeling methodology is set forth with attention given to the data interpretation. The abundances and distributions are obtained for all 11 source gases with corresponding ClY production rates and mixing ratios. It is shown that the ClY production rate and the ClY mixing ratio for each source gas are spatially dependent, and the change in the relative contributions from 1950 to 1990 is given. Ozone changes in the past decade are characterized by losses in the polar and midlatitude lower stratosphere. The values for CFC-11, CCl4, and CH3CCl3 suggest that they are more evident in the lower stratosphere than is suggested by steady-state estimates based on surface concentrations.

  10. Dynamic Electrothermal Model of a Sputtered Thermopile Thermal Radiation Detector for Earth Radiation Budget Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weckmann, Stephanie

    1997-01-01

    The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) is a program sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) aimed at evaluating the global energy balance. Current scanning radiometers used for CERES consist of thin-film thermistor bolometers viewing the Earth through a Cassegrain telescope. The Thermal Radiation Group, a laboratory in the Department of Mechanical Engineering at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, is currently studying a new sensor concept to replace the current bolometer: a thermopile thermal radiation detector. This next-generation detector would consist of a thermal sensor array made of thermocouple junction pairs, or thermopiles. The objective of the current research is to perform a thermal analysis of the thermopile. Numerical thermal models are particularly suited to solve problems for which temperature is the dominant mechanism of the operation of the device (through the thermoelectric effect), as well as for complex geometries composed of numerous different materials. Feasibility and design specifications are studied by developing a dynamic electrothermal model of the thermopile using the finite element method. A commercial finite element-modeling package, ALGOR, is used.

  11. Measurement-derived heat-budget approaches for simulating coastal wetland temperature with a hydrodynamic model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Swain, Eric; Decker, Jeremy

    2010-01-01

    Numerical modeling is needed to predict environmental temperatures, which affect a number of biota in southern Florida, U.S.A., such as the West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus), which uses thermal basins for refuge from lethal winter cold fronts. To numerically simulate heat-transport through a dynamic coastal wetland region, an algorithm was developed for the FTLOADDS coupled hydrodynamic surface-water/ground-water model that uses formulations and coefficients suited to the coastal wetland thermal environment. In this study, two field sites provided atmospheric data to develop coefficients for the heat flux terms representing this particular study area. Several methods were examined to represent the heat-flux components used to compute temperature. A Dalton equation was compared with a Penman formulation for latent heat computations, producing similar daily-average temperatures. Simulation of heat-transport in the southern Everglades indicates that the model represents the daily fluctuation in coastal temperatures better than at inland locations; possibly due to the lack of information on the spatial variations in heat-transport parameters such as soil heat capacity and surface albedo. These simulation results indicate that the new formulation is suitable for defining the existing thermohydrologic system and evaluating the ecological effect of proposed restoration efforts in the southern Everglades of Florida.

  12. Desktop modeling as a management tool for budgeting, forecasting, and reporting in an analytical laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, C.A.

    1995-07-01

    Managers are often required to quickly and accurately estimate resource needs. At times, additional work can be absorbed without additional resources. At other times, threshold resource boundaries are exceeded requiring an additional quantum of a specific resource. Cost savings` estimates, resulting from a reduction in efforts, are also increasingly becoming a requirement of today`s managers. The modeling effort described in this paper was designed to estimate instrumentation and manpower resource needs for an analytical laboratory. It was written using only simple spreadsheet software. Analysis can be readily performed with a minimum of input and results obtained in a matter of minutes. This model has been tuned with many years of empirical data yielding a high degree of capability. The model was expanded to meet other needs. It can be used to justify capital expenditure when the ultimate result is cost savings; to examine procedures and operations for efficiency increases; and for reporting and regulatory compliance. This paper demonstrates that accurate and credible estimates of resource needs can be readily obtained with a minimum of effort or specialized knowledge employing only tools that are readily available in today`s business environment.

  13. Parameter Estimations of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) Model over the Life History of a Key Antarctic Species: The Antarctic Sea Star Odontaster validus Koehler, 1906.

    PubMed

    Agüera, Antonio; Collard, Marie; Jossart, Quentin; Moreau, Camille; Danis, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    Marine organisms in Antarctica are adapted to an extreme ecosystem including extremely stable temperatures and strong seasonality due to changes in day length. It is now largely accepted that Southern Ocean organisms are particularly vulnerable to global warming with some regions already being challenged by a rapid increase of temperature. Climate change affects both the physical and biotic components of marine ecosystems and will have an impact on the distribution and population dynamics of Antarctic marine organisms. To predict and assess the effect of climate change on marine ecosystems a more comprehensive knowledge of the life history and physiology of key species is urgently needed. In this study we estimate the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model parameters for key benthic Antarctic species the sea star Odontaster validus using available information from literature and experiments. The DEB theory is unique in capturing the metabolic processes of an organism through its entire life cycle as a function of temperature and food availability. The DEB model allows for the inclusion of the different life history stages, and thus, becomes a tool that can be used to model lifetime feeding, growth, reproduction, and their responses to changes in biotic and abiotic conditions. The DEB model presented here includes the estimation of reproduction handling rules for the development of simultaneous oocyte cohorts within the gonad. Additionally it links the DEB model reserves to the pyloric caeca an organ whose function has long been ascribed to energy storage. Model parameters described a slowed down metabolism of long living animals that mature slowly. O. validus has a large reserve that-matching low maintenance costs- allow withstanding long periods of starvation. Gonad development is continuous and individual cohorts developed within the gonads grow in biomass following a power function of the age of the cohort. The DEB model developed here for O. validus allowed us to

  14. Estimation of Carbon Budgets for Croplands by Combining High Resolution Remote Sensing Data with a Crop Model and Validation Ground Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mangiarotti, S.; Veloso, A.; Ceschia, E.; Tallec, T.; Dejoux, J. F.

    2015-12-01

    Croplands occupy large areas of Earth's land surface playing a key role in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Hence, it is essential to quantify and analyze the carbon fluxes from those agro-ecosystems, since they contribute to climate change and are impacted by the environmental conditions. In this study we propose a regional modeling approach that combines high spatial and temporal resolutions (HSTR) optical remote sensing data with a crop model and a large set of in-situ measurements for model calibration and validation. The study area is located in southwest France and the model that we evaluate, called SAFY-CO2, is a semi-empirical one based on the Monteith's light-use efficiency theory and adapted for simulating the components of the net ecosystem CO2 fluxes (NEE) and of the annual net ecosystem carbon budgets (NECB) at a daily time step. The approach is based on the assimilation of satellite-derived green area index (GAI) maps for calibrating a number of the SAFY-CO2 parameters linked to crop phenology. HSTR data from the Formosat-2 and SPOT satellites were used to produce the GAI maps. The experimental data set includes eddy covariance measurements of net CO2 fluxes from two experimental sites and partitioned into gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco). It also includes measurements of GAI, biomass and yield between 2005 and 2011, focusing on the winter wheat crop. The results showed that the SAFY-CO2 model correctly reproduced the biomass production, its dynamic and the yield (relative errors about 24%) in contrasted climatic, environmental and management conditions. The net CO2 flux components estimated with the model were overall in agreement with the ground data, presenting good correlations (R² about 0.93 for GPP, 0.77 for Reco and 0.86 for NEE). The evaluation of the modelled NECB for the different site-years highlighted the importance of having accurate estimates of each component of the NECB. Future works aim at considering

  15. Parameter Estimations of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) Model over the Life History of a Key Antarctic Species: The Antarctic Sea Star Odontaster validus Koehler, 1906.

    PubMed

    Agüera, Antonio; Collard, Marie; Jossart, Quentin; Moreau, Camille; Danis, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    Marine organisms in Antarctica are adapted to an extreme ecosystem including extremely stable temperatures and strong seasonality due to changes in day length. It is now largely accepted that Southern Ocean organisms are particularly vulnerable to global warming with some regions already being challenged by a rapid increase of temperature. Climate change affects both the physical and biotic components of marine ecosystems and will have an impact on the distribution and population dynamics of Antarctic marine organisms. To predict and assess the effect of climate change on marine ecosystems a more comprehensive knowledge of the life history and physiology of key species is urgently needed. In this study we estimate the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model parameters for key benthic Antarctic species the sea star Odontaster validus using available information from literature and experiments. The DEB theory is unique in capturing the metabolic processes of an organism through its entire life cycle as a function of temperature and food availability. The DEB model allows for the inclusion of the different life history stages, and thus, becomes a tool that can be used to model lifetime feeding, growth, reproduction, and their responses to changes in biotic and abiotic conditions. The DEB model presented here includes the estimation of reproduction handling rules for the development of simultaneous oocyte cohorts within the gonad. Additionally it links the DEB model reserves to the pyloric caeca an organ whose function has long been ascribed to energy storage. Model parameters described a slowed down metabolism of long living animals that mature slowly. O. validus has a large reserve that-matching low maintenance costs- allow withstanding long periods of starvation. Gonad development is continuous and individual cohorts developed within the gonads grow in biomass following a power function of the age of the cohort. The DEB model developed here for O. validus allowed us to

  16. Parameter Estimations of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) Model over the Life History of a Key Antarctic Species: The Antarctic Sea Star Odontaster validus Koehler, 1906

    PubMed Central

    Agüera, Antonio; Collard, Marie; Jossart, Quentin; Moreau, Camille; Danis, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    Marine organisms in Antarctica are adapted to an extreme ecosystem including extremely stable temperatures and strong seasonality due to changes in day length. It is now largely accepted that Southern Ocean organisms are particularly vulnerable to global warming with some regions already being challenged by a rapid increase of temperature. Climate change affects both the physical and biotic components of marine ecosystems and will have an impact on the distribution and population dynamics of Antarctic marine organisms. To predict and assess the effect of climate change on marine ecosystems a more comprehensive knowledge of the life history and physiology of key species is urgently needed. In this study we estimate the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model parameters for key benthic Antarctic species the sea star Odontaster validus using available information from literature and experiments. The DEB theory is unique in capturing the metabolic processes of an organism through its entire life cycle as a function of temperature and food availability. The DEB model allows for the inclusion of the different life history stages, and thus, becomes a tool that can be used to model lifetime feeding, growth, reproduction, and their responses to changes in biotic and abiotic conditions. The DEB model presented here includes the estimation of reproduction handling rules for the development of simultaneous oocyte cohorts within the gonad. Additionally it links the DEB model reserves to the pyloric caeca an organ whose function has long been ascribed to energy storage. Model parameters described a slowed down metabolism of long living animals that mature slowly. O. validus has a large reserve that—matching low maintenance costs- allow withstanding long periods of starvation. Gonad development is continuous and individual cohorts developed within the gonads grow in biomass following a power function of the age of the cohort. The DEB model developed here for O. validus allowed us to

  17. Budgeting based on need: a model to determine sub-national allocation of resources for health services in Indonesia

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Allocating national resources to regions based on need is a key policy issue in most health systems. Many systems utilise proxy measures of need as the basis for allocation formulae. Increasingly these are underpinned by complex statistical methods to separate need from supplier induced utilisation. Assessment of need is then used to allocate existing global budgets to geographic areas. Many low and middle income countries are beginning to use formula methods for funding however these attempts are often hampered by a lack of information on utilisation, relative needs and whether the budgets allocated bear any relationship to cost. An alternative is to develop bottom-up estimates of the cost of providing for local need. This method is viable where public funding is focused on a relatively small number of targeted services. We describe a bottom-up approach to developing a formula for the allocation of resources. The method is illustrated in the context of the state minimum service package mandated to be provided by the Indonesian public health system. Methods A standardised costing methodology was developed that is sensitive to the main expected drivers of local cost variation including demographic structure, epidemiology and location. Essential package costing is often undertaken at a country level. It is less usual to utilise the methods across different parts of a country in a way that takes account of variation in population needs and location. Costing was based on best clinical practice in Indonesia and province specific data on distribution and costs of facilities. The resulting model was used to estimate essential package costs in a representative district in each province of the country. Findings Substantial differences in the costs of providing basic services ranging from USD 15 in urban Yogyakarta to USD 48 in sparsely populated North Maluku. These costs are driven largely by the structure of the population, particularly numbers of births

  18. Non-linear sigma-models and string theories

    SciTech Connect

    Sen, A.

    1986-10-01

    The connection between sigma-models and string theories is discussed, as well as how the sigma-models can be used as tools to prove various results in string theories. Closed bosonic string theory in the light cone gauge is very briefly introduced. Then, closed bosonic string theory in the presence of massless background fields is discussed. The light cone gauge is used, and it is shown that in order to obtain a Lorentz invariant theory, the string theory in the presence of background fields must be described by a two-dimensional conformally invariant theory. The resulting constraints on the background fields are found to be the equations of motion of the string theory. The analysis is extended to the case of the heterotic string theory and the superstring theory in the presence of the massless background fields. It is then shown how to use these results to obtain nontrivial solutions to the string field equations. Another application of these results is shown, namely to prove that the effective cosmological constant after compactification vanishes as a consequence of the classical equations of motion of the string theory. 34 refs. (LEW)

  19. Error and energy budget analysis of a non-hydrostatic stretched-grid global atmospheric model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uchida, J.; Nakajima, T.; Suzuki, K.

    2015-12-01

    A non-hydrostatic stretched-grid (SG) model is used to analyze the large-scale errors generated by the stretching of horizontal grids and their influences to the region of interest. Simulations by a fully compressible non-hydrostatic global atmospheric model, NICAM, and its SG regional model, a Stretched-NICAM, were performed for March-April-May 2011 with various resolutions and global stretching factors. The comparison of weeklong accumulative precipitation amounts between the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data, the quasi-uniform and SG simulations have shown that a stretched run leads to better representation of storms and associated precipitation, since the errors generated in the outer regions with a coarser grid spacing do not seriously affect the inner domain centered at the focal point. For season-long simulations, in one particular set of stretched runs with the focal point located in the eastern U.S., a larger grid spacing causes the artificial suppression of baroclinic development of mid-latitude eddies in the Southern Hemisphere, weakens the eddy-driven polar-front jet (PFJ), and resulting in a cold bias at mid- to high-latitudes. However, in the Northern Hemisphere, by contrast, the aforementioned changes are less apparent, such that each hemisphere acting nearly independent of the other. Therefore, for the SG runs, the mean temperature was maintained at the region of interest and the increased number of moderate to heavy precipitations, which are also frequent in TRMM, were observed, thus the benefits of increased resolution are realized.

  20. Constraining regional scale carbon budgets at the US West Coast using a high-resolution atmospheric inverse modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goeckede, M.; Michalak, A. M.; Vickers, D.; Turner, D.; Law, B.

    2009-04-01

    The study presented is embedded within the NACP (North American Carbon Program) West Coast project ORCA2, which aims at determining the regional carbon balance of the US states Oregon, California and Washington. Our work specifically focuses on the effect of disturbance history and climate variability, aiming at improving our understanding of e.g. drought stress and stand age on carbon sources and sinks in complex terrain with fine-scale variability in land cover types. The ORCA2 atmospheric inverse modeling approach has been set up to capture flux variability on the regional scale at high temporal and spatial resolution. Atmospheric transport is simulated coupling the mesoscale model WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) with the STILT (Stochastic Time Inverted Lagrangian Transport) footprint model. This setup allows identifying sources and sinks that influence atmospheric observations with highly resolved mass transport fields and realistic turbulent mixing. Terrestrial biosphere carbon fluxes are simulated at spatial resolutions of up to 1km and subdaily timesteps, considering effects of ecoregion, land cover type and disturbance regime on the carbon budgets. Our approach assimilates high-precision atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements and eddy-covariance data from several sites throughout the model domain, as well as high-resolution remote sensing products (e.g. LandSat, MODIS) and interpolated surface meteorology (DayMet, SOGS, PRISM). We present top-down modeling results that have been optimized using Bayesian inversion, reflecting the information on regional scale carbon processes provided by the network of high-precision CO2 observations. We address the level of detail (e.g. spatial and temporal resolution) that can be resolved by top-down modeling on the regional scale, given the uncertainties introduced by various sources for model-data mismatch. Our results demonstrate the importance of accurate modeling of carbon-water coupling, with the

  1. Modeling Water and Carbon Budgets in Current and Future Agricultural Land Use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drewniak, B.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, R.; Jacob, R.

    2008-12-01

    Biofuels are a key component of renewable energy mix proposed as a substitute to fossil fuels. Biofuels are suggested as both economical and having potential for reducing atmospheric emissions of carbon from the transportation sector, by building up soil carbon levels when planted on lands where these levels have been reduced by intensive tillage. The purpose of this research is to develop a carbon-nitrogen based crop module (CNC) for the community land model (CLM) and to improve the characterization of the below and above ground carbon sequestration for bioenergy crops. The CNC simulates planting, growing, maturing and harvesting stages for three major crops: maize, soybean and wheat. In addition, dynamic root module is implemented to simulate fine root distribution and development based on relative availability of soil water and nitrogen in the root zone. Coupled CLM-CNC models is used to study crop yields, geographic locations for bioenergy crop production and soil carbon changes. Bioenergy crop cultivation is based on current crop cultivation and future land use change dataset. Soil carbon change has been simulated based on carbon input to the soil from the leaf, stem and root, and carbon emission from soil carbon decomposition. Simulated water and carbon fluxes have been compared with field observations and soil carbon content has been examined under different harvest practices.

  2. Family Theory According to the Cambridge Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Stephen L.

    1978-01-01

    This paper is a summary of and an introduction to the family systems theory of David Kantor and William Lehr as expressed in their book, Inside the Family. Their concepts of family boundaries, dimensions, typal arrangements, and the four player system are presented and discussed. (Author)

  3. What Is Your Budget Saying about Your Library?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobs, Leslie; Strouse, Roger

    2002-01-01

    Discusses budgeting for corporate libraries and how to keep budgets from getting cut. Topics include whether the budget is considered corporate overhead; recovering costs; models for content cost recovery; showing return on library investment; marketing library value to senior management; user needs and satisfaction; and comparing budgets to other…

  4. Modeling transonic aerodynamic response using nonlinear systems theory for use with modern control theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Silva, Walter A.

    1993-01-01

    The presentation begins with a brief description of the motivation and approach that has been taken for this research. This will be followed by a description of the Volterra Theory of Nonlinear Systems and the CAP-TSD code which is an aeroelastic, transonic CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) code. The application of the Volterra theory to a CFD model and, more specifically, to a CAP-TSD model of a rectangular wing with a NACA 0012 airfoil section will be presented.

  5. Volcanic aquifers of Hawai‘i—Hydrogeology, water budgets, and conceptual models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Izuka, Scot K.; Engott, John A.; Bassiouni, Maoya; Johnson, Adam G.; Miller, Lisa D.; Rotzoll, Kolja; Mair, Alan

    2016-06-13

    Groundwater occurrence and movement in Hawai‘i’s volcanic aquifers can be described in terms of four conceptual models: (1) fresh groundwater lenses in high-permeability lava-flow aquifers, (2) aquifers with groundwater impounded by dikes, (3) thickly saturated low-permeability aquifers, and (4) perched aquifers. In Hawai‘i, most fresh groundwater withdrawn for human use comes from freshwater lenses in the dike-free high-permeability lava-flow aquifers where the principal limiting factor to groundwater availability is saltwater intrusion, but impacts of reduced natural groundwater discharge may also limit availability. Dike-impounded groundwater is common near the center of Hawaiian shield volcanoes, where water moves and is stored in permeable lava flows between the dikes; groundwater availability in these aquifers is primarily limited by storage depletion and reduction of flow to adjacent aquifers and natural groundwater discharge. Thickly saturated low-permeability aquifers have been identified on Kaua‘i and Maui; groundwater availability is primarily limited by streamflow depletion and water-table decline. Perched groundwater is postulated to exist in some areas of Hawai‘i, but store much less water than other modes of groundwater occurrence. Limits on groundwater availability in perched aquifers include the potential of reducing inflow to other groundwater settings and reducing natural discharge and stream seepage. Some groundwater bodies in Hawai‘i are enigmatic; consequences of groundwater development in these bodies and their relation to groundwater availability are not completely understood.

  6. Secondary flow structure in a model curved artery: 3D morphology and circulation budget analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulusu, Kartik V.; Plesniak, Michael W.

    2015-11-01

    In this study, we examined the rate of change of circulation within control regions encompassing the large-scale vortical structures associated with secondary flows, i.e. deformed Dean-, Lyne- and Wall-type (D-L-W) vortices at planar cross-sections in a 180° curved artery model (curvature ratio, 1/7). Magnetic resonance velocimetry (MRV) and particle image velocimetry (PIV) experiments were performed independently, under the same physiological inflow conditions (Womersley number, 4.2) and using Newtonian blood-analog fluids. The MRV-technique performed at Stanford University produced phase-averaged, three-dimensional velocity fields. Secondary flow field comparisons of MRV-data to PIV-data at various cross-sectional planes and inflow phases were made. A wavelet-decomposition-based approach was implemented to characterize various secondary flow morphologies. We hypothesize that the persistence and decay of arterial secondary flow vortices is intrinsically related to the influence of the out-of-plane flow, tilting, in-plane convection and diffusion-related factors within the control regions. Evaluation of these factors will elucidate secondary flow structures in arterial hemodynamics. Supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant Number CBET-0828903, and GW Center for Biomimetics and Bioinspired Engineering (COBRE). The MRV data were acquired at Stanford University in collaboration with Christopher Elkins and John Eaton.

  7. Gutzwiller variational theory for the Hubbard model with attractive interaction.

    PubMed

    Bünemann, Jörg; Gebhard, Florian; Radnóczi, Katalin; Fazekas, Patrik

    2005-06-29

    We investigate the electronic and superconducting properties of a negative-U Hubbard model. For this purpose we evaluate a recently introduced variational theory based on Gutzwiller-correlated BCS wavefunctions. We find significant differences between our approach and standard BCS theory, especially for the superconducting gap. For small values of |U|, we derive analytical expressions for the order parameter and the superconducting gap which we compare to exact results from perturbation theory.

  8. Psycholinguistic Theory of Learning to Read Compared to the Traditional Theory Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Robert F.

    A comparison of two models of the reading process--the psycholinguistic model, in which learning to read is seen as a top-down, holistic procedure, and the traditional theory model, in which learning to read is seen as a bottom-up, atomistic procedure--is provided in this paper. The first part of the paper provides brief overviews of the following…

  9. Evaluating the spatiotemporal variations of water budget across China over 1951-2006 using IBIS model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Wei, X.; Peng, C.; Fang, X.; Liu, S.; Zhou, G.; Yu, S.; Ju, W.

    2010-01-01

    The Integrated Biosphere Simulator is used to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of the crucial hydrological variables [run-off and actual evapotranspiration (AET)] of the water balance across China for the period 1951–2006 including a precipitation analysis. Results suggest three major findings. First, simulated run-off captured 85% of the spatial variability and 80% of the temporal variability for 85 hydrological gauges across China. The mean relative errors were within 20% for 66% of the studied stations and within 30% for 86% of the stations. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients indicated that the quantity pattern of run-off was also captured acceptably except for some watersheds in southwestern and northwestern China. The possible reasons for underestimation of run-off in the Tibetan plateau include underestimation of precipitation and uncertainties in other meteorological data due to complex topography, and simplified representations of the soil depth attribute and snow processes in the model. Second, simulated AET matched reasonably with estimated values calculated as the residual of precipitation and run-off for watersheds controlled by the hydrological gauges. Finally, trend analysis based on the Mann–Kendall method indicated that significant increasing and decreasing patterns in precipitation appeared in the northwest part of China and the Yellow River region, respectively. Significant increasing and decreasing trends in AET were detected in the Southwest region and the Yangtze River region, respectively. In addition, the Southwest region, northern China (including the Heilongjiang, Liaohe, and Haihe Basins), and the Yellow River Basin showed significant decreasing trends in run-off, and the Zhemin hydrological region showed a significant increasing trend.

  10. Modeling the impact of agricultural land use and management on US carbon budgets

    DOE PAGES

    Drewniak, B. A.; Mishra, U.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

    2015-04-09

    Cultivation of the terrestrial land surface can create either a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, depending on land management practices. The Community Land Model (CLM) provides a useful tool for exploring how land use and management impact the soil carbon pool at regional to global scales. CLM was recently updated to include representation of managed lands growing maize, soybean, and spring wheat. In this study, CLM-Crop is used to investigate the impacts of various management practices, including fertilizer use and differential rates of crop residue removal, on the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage of croplands in the continental Unitedmore » States over approximately a 170-year period. Results indicate that total US SOC stocks have already lost over 8 Pg C (10%) due to land cultivation practices (e.g., fertilizer application, cultivar choice, and residue removal), compared to a land surface composed of native vegetation (i.e., grasslands). After long periods of cultivation, individual subgrids (the equivalent of a field plot) growing maize and soybean lost up to 65% of the carbon stored compared to a grassland site. Crop residue management showed the greatest effect on soil carbon storage, with low and medium residue returns resulting in additional losses of 5 and 3.5%, respectively, in US carbon storage, while plots with high residue returns stored 2% more carbon. Nitrogenous fertilizer can alter the amount of soil carbon stocks significantly. Under current levels of crop residue return, not applying fertilizer resulted in a 5% loss of soil carbon. Our simulations indicate that disturbance through cultivation will always result in a loss of soil carbon, and management practices will have a large influence on the magnitude of SOC loss.« less

  11. Modeling the impact of agricultural land use and management on US carbon budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drewniak, B. A.; Mishra, U.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

    2014-09-01

    Cultivation of the terrestrial land surface can create either a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, depending on land management practices. The Community Land Model (CLM) provides a useful tool to explore how land use and management impact the soil carbon pool at regional to global scales. CLM was recently updated to include representation of managed lands growing maize, soybean, and spring wheat. In this study, CLM-Crop is used to investigate the impacts of various management practices, including fertilizer use and differential rates of crop residue removal, on the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage of croplands in the continental United States over approximately a 170 year period. Results indicate that total US SOC stocks have already lost over 8 Pg C (10%) due to land cultivation practices (e.g., fertilizer application, cultivar choice, and residue removal), compared to a land surface composed of native vegetation (i.e., grasslands). After long periods of cultivation, individual plots growing maize and soybean lost up to 65% of the carbon stored, compared to a grassland site. Crop residue management showed the greatest effect on soil carbon storage, with low and medium residue returns resulting in additional losses of 5% and 3.5%, respectively, in US carbon storage, while plots with high residue returns stored 2% more carbon. Nitrogenous fertilizer can alter the amount of soil carbon stocks significantly. Under current levels of crop residue return, not applying fertilizer resulted in a 5% loss of soil carbon. Our simulations indicate that disturbance through cultivation will always result in a loss of soil carbon, and management practices will have a large influence on the magnitude of SOC loss.

  12. Modeling the impact of agricultural land use and management on US carbon budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drewniak, B. A.; Mishra, U.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

    2015-04-01

    Cultivation of the terrestrial land surface can create either a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, depending on land management practices. The Community Land Model (CLM) provides a useful tool for exploring how land use and management impact the soil carbon pool at regional to global scales. CLM was recently updated to include representation of managed lands growing maize, soybean, and spring wheat. In this study, CLM-Crop is used to investigate the impacts of various management practices, including fertilizer use and differential rates of crop residue removal, on the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage of croplands in the continental United States over approximately a 170-year period. Results indicate that total US SOC stocks have already lost over 8 Pg C (10%) due to land cultivation practices (e.g., fertilizer application, cultivar choice, and residue removal), compared to a land surface composed of native vegetation (i.e., grasslands). After long periods of cultivation, individual subgrids (the equivalent of a field plot) growing maize and soybean lost up to 65% of the carbon stored compared to a grassland site. Crop residue management showed the greatest effect on soil carbon storage, with low and medium residue returns resulting in additional losses of 5 and 3.5%, respectively, in US carbon storage, while plots with high residue returns stored 2% more carbon. Nitrogenous fertilizer can alter the amount of soil carbon stocks significantly. Under current levels of crop residue return, not applying fertilizer resulted in a 5% loss of soil carbon. Our simulations indicate that disturbance through cultivation will always result in a loss of soil carbon, and management practices will have a large influence on the magnitude of SOC loss.

  13. Modeling the impact of agricultural land use and management on US carbon budgets

    DOE PAGES

    Drewniak, B. A.; Mishra, U.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

    2014-09-22

    Cultivation of the terrestrial land surface can create either a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, depending on land management practices. The Community Land Model (CLM) provides a useful tool to explore how land use and management impact the soil carbon pool at regional to global scales. CLM was recently updated to include representation of managed lands growing maize, soybean, and spring wheat. In this study, CLM-Crop is used to investigate the impacts of various management practices, including fertilizer use and differential rates of crop residue removal, on the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage of croplands in the continental Unitedmore » States over approximately a 170 year period. Results indicate that total US SOC stocks have already lost over 8 Pg C (10%) due to land cultivation practices (e.g., fertilizer application, cultivar choice, and residue removal), compared to a land surface composed of native vegetation (i.e., grasslands). After long periods of cultivation, individual plots growing maize and soybean lost up to 65% of the carbon stored, compared to a grassland site. Crop residue management showed the greatest effect on soil carbon storage, with low and medium residue returns resulting in additional losses of 5% and 3.5%, respectively, in US carbon storage, while plots with high residue returns stored 2% more carbon. Nitrogenous fertilizer can alter the amount of soil carbon stocks significantly. Under current levels of crop residue return, not applying fertilizer resulted in a 5% loss of soil carbon. Our simulations indicate that disturbance through cultivation will always result in a loss of soil carbon, and management practices will have a large influence on the magnitude of SOC loss.« less

  14. BLAZE, a novel Fire-Model for the CABLE Land-Surface Model applied to a Re-Assessment of the Australian Continental Carbon Budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nieradzik, L. P.; Haverd, V. E.; Briggs, P.; Meyer, C. P.; Canadell, J.

    2015-12-01

    Fires play a major role in the carbon-cycle and the development of global vegetation, especially on the continent of Australia, where vegetation is prone to frequent fire occurences and where regional composition and stand-age distribution is regulated by fire. Furthermore, the probable changes of fire behaviour under a changing climate are still poorly understood and require further investigation.In this presentation we introduce the fire-model BLAZE (BLAZe induced land-atmosphere flux Estimator), designed for a novel approach to simulate fire-frequencies, fire-intensities, fire related fluxes and the responses in vegetation. Fire frequencies are prescribed using SIMFIRE (Knorr et al., 2014) or GFED3 (e.g. Giglio et al., 2013). Fire-Line-Intensity (FLI) is computed from meteorological information and fuel loads which are state variables within the C-cycle component of CABLE (Community Atmosphere-Biosphere-Land Exchange model). This FLI is used as an input to the tree-demography model POP(Population-Order-Physiology; Haverd et al., 2014). Within POP the fire-mortality depends on FLI and tree height distribution. Intensity-dependent combustion factors (CF) are then generated for and applied to live and litter carbon pools as well as the transfers from live pools to litter caused by fire. Thus, both fire and stand characteristics are taken into account which has a legacy effect on future events. Gross C-CO2 emissions from Australian wild fires are larger than Australian territorial fossil fuel emissions. However, the net effect of fire on the Australian terrestrial carbon budget is unknown. We address this by applying the newly-developed fire module, integrated within the CABLE land surface model, and optimised for the Australian region, to a reassessment of the Australian Terrestrial Carbon Budget.

  15. Theory, modeling, and simulation annual report, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-05-01

    This report briefly discusses research on the following topics: development of electronic structure methods; modeling molecular processes in clusters; modeling molecular processes in solution; modeling molecular processes in separations chemistry; modeling interfacial molecular processes; modeling molecular processes in the atmosphere; methods for periodic calculations on solids; chemistry and physics of minerals; graphical user interfaces for computational chemistry codes; visualization and analysis of molecular simulations; integrated computational chemistry environment; and benchmark computations.

  16. The danger model: questioning an unconvincing theory.

    PubMed

    Józefowski, Szczepan

    2016-02-01

    Janeway's pattern recognition theory holds that the immune system detects infection through a limited number of the so-called pattern recognition receptors (PRRs). These receptors bind specific chemical compounds expressed by entire groups of related pathogens, but not by host cells (pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs). In contrast, Matzinger's danger hypothesis postulates that products released from stressed or damaged cells have a more important role in the activation of immune system than the recognition of nonself. These products, named by analogy to PAMPs as danger-associated molecular patterns (DAMPs), are proposed to act through the same receptors (PRRs) as PAMPs and, consequently, to stimulate largely similar responses. Herein, I review direct and indirect evidence that contradict the widely accepted danger theory, and suggest that it may be false.

  17. [Models of economic theory of population growth].

    PubMed

    Von Zameck, W

    1987-01-01

    "The economic theory of population growth applies the opportunity cost approach to the fertility decision. Variations and differentials in fertility are caused by the available resources and relative prices or by the relative production costs of child services. Pure changes in real income raise the demand for children or the total amount spent on children. If relative prices or production costs and real income are affected together the effect on fertility requires separate consideration." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

  18. Theory and model use in social marketing health interventions.

    PubMed

    Luca, Nadina Raluca; Suggs, L Suzanne

    2013-01-01

    The existing literature suggests that theories and models can serve as valuable frameworks for the design and evaluation of health interventions. However, evidence on the use of theories and models in social marketing interventions is sparse. The purpose of this systematic review is to identify to what extent papers about social marketing health interventions report using theory, which theories are most commonly used, and how theory was used. A systematic search was conducted for articles that reported social marketing interventions for the prevention or management of cancer, diabetes, heart disease, HIV, STDs, and tobacco use, and behaviors related to reproductive health, physical activity, nutrition, and smoking cessation. Articles were published in English, after 1990, reported an evaluation, and met the 6 social marketing benchmarks criteria (behavior change, consumer research, segmentation and targeting, exchange, competition and marketing mix). Twenty-four articles, describing 17 interventions, met the inclusion criteria. Of these 17 interventions, 8 reported using theory and 7 stated how it was used. The transtheoretical model/stages of change was used more often than other theories. Findings highlight an ongoing lack of use or underreporting of the use of theory in social marketing campaigns and reinforce the call to action for applying and reporting theory to guide and evaluate interventions.

  19. Theory and model use in social marketing health interventions.

    PubMed

    Luca, Nadina Raluca; Suggs, L Suzanne

    2013-01-01

    The existing literature suggests that theories and models can serve as valuable frameworks for the design and evaluation of health interventions. However, evidence on the use of theories and models in social marketing interventions is sparse. The purpose of this systematic review is to identify to what extent papers about social marketing health interventions report using theory, which theories are most commonly used, and how theory was used. A systematic search was conducted for articles that reported social marketing interventions for the prevention or management of cancer, diabetes, heart disease, HIV, STDs, and tobacco use, and behaviors related to reproductive health, physical activity, nutrition, and smoking cessation. Articles were published in English, after 1990, reported an evaluation, and met the 6 social marketing benchmarks criteria (behavior change, consumer research, segmentation and targeting, exchange, competition and marketing mix). Twenty-four articles, describing 17 interventions, met the inclusion criteria. Of these 17 interventions, 8 reported using theory and 7 stated how it was used. The transtheoretical model/stages of change was used more often than other theories. Findings highlight an ongoing lack of use or underreporting of the use of theory in social marketing campaigns and reinforce the call to action for applying and reporting theory to guide and evaluate interventions. PMID:22934539

  20. Lectures on F-theory compactifications and model building

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weigand, Timo

    2010-11-01

    These lecture notes are devoted to formal and phenomenological aspects of F-theory. We begin with a pedagogical introduction to the general concepts of F-theory, covering classic topics such as the connection to type IIB orientifolds, the geometry of elliptic fibrations and the emergence of gauge groups, matter and Yukawa couplings. As a suitable framework for the construction of compact F-theory vacua we describe a special class of Weierstrass models called Tate models, whose local properties are captured by the spectral cover construction. Armed with this technology we proceed with a survey of F-theory grand unified theory (GUT) models, aiming at an overview of basic conceptual and phenomenological aspects, in particular in connection with GUT breaking via hypercharge flux.

  1. FY 1996 Congressional budget request: Budget highlights

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1995-02-01

    The FY 1996 budget presentation is organized by the Department`s major business lines. An accompanying chart displays the request for new budget authority. The report compares the budget request for FY 1996 with the appropriated FY 1995 funding levels displayed on a comparable basis. The FY 1996 budget represents the first year of a five year plan in which the Department will reduce its spending by $15.8 billion in budget authority and by $14.1 billion in outlays. FY 1996 is a transition year as the Department embarks on its multiyear effort to do more with less. The Budget Highlights are presented by business line; however, the fifth business line, Economic Productivity, which is described in the Policy Overview section, cuts across multiple organizational missions, funding levels and activities and is therefore included in the discussion of the other four business lines.

  2. Four Philosophical Models of the Relation Between Theory and Practice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jorgensen, Estelle R.

    2005-01-01

    Since music education straddles theory and practice, the author's purpose is to sketch the strengths and weaknesses of four philosophical models of the relationship between theory and practice. She demonstrates that none of them suffices when taken alone; each has something to offer and its own detractions. She then concludes with four suggested…

  3. Scaling theory of depinning in the Sneppen model

    SciTech Connect

    Maslov, S.; Paczuski, M. Department of Physics, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, New York 11790 The Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, 20 Clarkson Road, Cambridge CB4 0EH )

    1994-08-01

    We develop a scaling theory for the critical depinning behavior of the Sneppen interface model [Phys. Rev. Lett. [bold 69], 3539 (1992)]. This theory is based on a gap'' equation that describes the self-organization process to a critical state of the depinning transition. All of the critical exponents can be expressed in terms of two independent exponents, [nu][sub [parallel

  4. Geology on a Sand Budget

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kane, Jacqueline

    2004-01-01

    Earth science teachers know how frustrating it can be to spend hundreds of dollars on three-dimensional (3-D) models of Earth's geologic features, to use the models for only a few class periods. To avoid emptying an already limited science budget, the author states that teachers can use a simple alternative to the expensive 3-D models--sand. She…

  5. Functional volumes modeling: theory and preliminary assessment.

    PubMed

    Fox, P T; Lancaster, J L; Parsons, L M; Xiong, J H; Zamarripa, F

    1997-01-01

    A construct for metanalytic modeling of the functional organization of the human brain, termed functional volumes modeling (FVM), is presented and preliminarily tested. FVM uses the published literature to model brain functional areas as spatial probability distributions. The FVM statistical model estimates population variance (i.e., among individuals) from the variance observed among group-mean studies, these being the most prevalent type of study in the functional imaging literature. The FVM modeling strategy is tested by: (1) constructing an FVM of the mouth region of primary motor cortex using published, group-mean, functional imaging reports as input, and (2) comparing the confidence bounds predicted by that FVM with those observed in 10 normal subjects performing overt-speech tasks. The FVM model correctly predicted the mean location and spatial distribution of per-subject functional responses. FVM has a wide range of applications, including hypothesis testing for statistical parametric images.

  6. Development of response models for the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) sensors. Part 1: Dynamic models and computer simulations for the ERBE nonscanner, scanner and solar monitor sensors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halyo, Nesim; Choi, Sang H.; Chrisman, Dan A., Jr.; Samms, Richard W.

    1987-01-01

    Dynamic models and computer simulations were developed for the radiometric sensors utilized in the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). The models were developed to understand performance, improve measurement accuracy by updating model parameters and provide the constants needed for the count conversion algorithms. Model simulations were compared with the sensor's actual responses demonstrated in the ground and inflight calibrations. The models consider thermal and radiative exchange effects, surface specularity, spectral dependence of a filter, radiative interactions among an enclosure's nodes, partial specular and diffuse enclosure surface characteristics and steady-state and transient sensor responses. Relatively few sensor nodes were chosen for the models since there is an accuracy tradeoff between increasing the number of nodes and approximating parameters such as the sensor's size, material properties, geometry, and enclosure surface characteristics. Given that the temperature gradients within a node and between nodes are small enough, approximating with only a few nodes does not jeopardize the accuracy required to perform the parameter estimates and error analyses.

  7. Convergent perturbation theory for lattice models with fermions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sazonov, V. K.

    2016-05-01

    The standard perturbation theory in QFT and lattice models leads to the asymptotic expansions. However, an appropriate regularization of the path or lattice integrals allows one to construct convergent series with an infinite radius of the convergence. In the earlier studies, this approach was applied to the purely bosonic systems. Here, using bosonization, we develop the convergent perturbation theory for a toy lattice model with interacting fermionic and bosonic fields.

  8. Consumer preference models: fuzzy theory approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turksen, I. B.; Wilson, I. A.

    1993-12-01

    Consumer preference models are widely used in new product design, marketing management, pricing and market segmentation. The purpose of this article is to develop and test a fuzzy set preference model which can represent linguistic variables in individual-level models implemented in parallel with existing conjoint models. The potential improvements in market share prediction and predictive validity can substantially improve management decisions about what to make (product design), for whom to make it (market segmentation) and how much to make (market share prediction).

  9. Bianchi class A models in Sàez-Ballester's theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Socorro, J.; Espinoza-García, Abraham

    2012-08-01

    We apply the Sàez-Ballester (SB) theory to Bianchi class A models, with a barotropic perfect fluid in a stiff matter epoch. We obtain exact classical solutions à la Hamilton for Bianchi type I, II and VIh=-1 models. We also find exact quantum solutions to all Bianchi Class A models employing a particular ansatz for the wave function of the universe.

  10. A Dynamic Systems Theory Model of Visual Perception Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coté, Carol A.

    2015-01-01

    This article presents a model for understanding the development of visual perception from a dynamic systems theory perspective. It contrasts to a hierarchical or reductionist model that is often found in the occupational therapy literature. In this proposed model vision and ocular motor abilities are not foundational to perception, they are seen…

  11. A Sharing Item Response Theory Model for Computerized Adaptive Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Segall, Daniel O.

    2004-01-01

    A new sharing item response theory (SIRT) model is presented that explicitly models the effects of sharing item content between informants and test takers. This model is used to construct adaptive item selection and scoring rules that provide increased precision and reduced score gains in instances where sharing occurs. The adaptive item selection…

  12. A novel Fire-Model for the CABLE Land Surface Model applied to a Re-assessment of the Australian Continental Carbon Budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nieradzik, L. P.; Haverd, V. E.; Briggs, P.; Meyer, C. P.; Canadell, J.

    2014-12-01

    Fires play a major role in the carbon-cycle and the development of global vegetation, especially on the continent of Australia, where vegetation is prone to frequent fire occurences and where regional composition and stand-age distribution is regulated by fire. Furthermore, the probable changes of fire behaviour under a changing climate are still poorly understood and require further investigation.In this presentation we introduce a novel approach to simulate fire-frequencies, fire-intensities and the responses in vegetation. Fire frequencies are prescribed using SIMFIRE (Knorr et al., 2014) or GFED3 (e.g. Giglio et al., 2013). Fire-Line-Intensity (FLI) is computed from meteorological information and fuel loads which are state variables within the C-cycle component of CABLE. This FLI is used as an input to the tree-demography model POP (Population-Order-Physiology; Haverd et al., 2014). Within POP the fire-mortality depends on FLI and tree height distribution.Intensity-dependent combustion factors (CF) are then generated for and applied to live and litter carbon pools as well as the transfers from live pools to litter caused by fire. Thus, both fire and stand characteristics are taken into account which has a legacy effect on future events. Gross C-CO2 emissions from Australian wild fires are larger than Australian territorial fossil fuel emissions. However, the net effect of fire on the Australian terrestrial carbon budget is unknown. We address this by applying the newly-developed fire module, integrated within the CABLE land surface model, and optimised for the Australian region, to a reassessment of the Australian Terrestrial Carbon Budget.

  13. The monster sporadic group and a theory underlying superstring models

    SciTech Connect

    Chapline, G.

    1996-09-01

    The pattern of duality symmetries acting on the states of compactified superstring models reinforces an earlier suggestion that the Monster sporadic group is a hidden symmetry for superstring models. This in turn points to a supersymmetric theory of self-dual and anti-self-dual K3 manifolds joined by Dirac strings and evolving in a 13 dimensional spacetime as the fundamental theory. In addition to the usual graviton and dilaton this theory contains matter-like degrees of freedom resembling the massless states of the heterotic string, thus providing a completely geometric interpretation for ordinary matter. 25 refs.

  14. Baldrige Theory into Practice: A Generic Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arif, Mohammed

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: The education system globally has moved from a push-based or producer-centric system to a pull-based or customer centric system. Malcolm Baldrige Quality Award (MBQA) model happens to be one of the latest additions to the pull based models. The purpose of this paper is to develop a generic framework for MBQA that can be used by…

  15. From individuals to populations to communities: a dynamic energy budget model of marine ecosystem size-spectrum including life history diversity.

    PubMed

    Maury, Olivier; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe

    2013-05-01

    Individual metabolism, predator-prey relationships, and the role of biodiversity are major factors underlying the dynamics of food webs and their response to environmental variability. Despite their crucial, complementary and interacting influences, they are usually not considered simultaneously in current marine ecosystem models. In an attempt to fill this gap and determine if these factors and their interaction are sufficient to allow realistic community structure and dynamics to emerge, we formulate a mathematical model of the size-structured dynamics of marine communities which integrates mechanistically individual, population and community levels. The model represents the transfer of energy generated in both time and size by an infinite number of interacting fish species spanning from very small to very large species. It is based on standard individual level assumptions of the Dynamic Energy Budget theory (DEB) as well as important ecological processes such as opportunistic size-based predation and competition for food. Resting on the inter-specific body-size scaling relationships of the DEB theory, the diversity of life-history traits (i.e. biodiversity) is explicitly integrated. The stationary solutions of the model as well as the transient solutions arising when environmental signals (e.g. variability of primary production and temperature) propagate through the ecosystem are studied using numerical simulations. It is shown that in the absence of density-dependent feedback processes, the model exhibits unstable oscillations. Density-dependent schooling probability and schooling-dependent predatory and disease mortalities are proposed to be important stabilizing factors allowing stationary solutions to be reached. At the community level, the shape and slope of the obtained quasi-linear stationary spectrum matches well with empirical studies. When oscillations of primary production are simulated, the model predicts that the variability propagates along the

  16. Estimating evapotranspiration over agricultural landscapes with thermal infrared data: comparison of two approaches using Simple Energy Budget and SVAT modeling.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bigeard, G.; Coudert, B.; Jarlan, L.; Er-Raki, S.; Khabba, S.

    2012-04-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) monitoring presents wide range of applications from agriculture and water resources management to meteorology. Several approaches have been developed to retrieve ET based on a joint use of remote sensing data and land surface modeling, in particular with a SVAT (Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfers) model or a SEB (Surface Energy Budget) model. The objective of our work is to estimate spatialized ET fluxes from Thermal Infra-Red (TIR) imagery, focusing on simulating fluxes at low spatial resolution with 2 methodologies: 1. Simulating with a SEB model directly at low resolution (landscape scale: 4km) with TIR forcing. 2. Aggregating high resolution (agricultural field scale) estimates from a SVAT model constrained by TIR data and based on a high spatial resolution database (landcover, LAI, vegetation height, meteorological forcing and irrigation). In a first part we sum up previous results about in-situ capabilities of a SEB model (TSEB, Norman & al. 1995) versus a SVAT model (SEtHyS, described by Coudert & al. 2006) over crops. TSEB is driven directly with TIR forcing and does not consider soil water transfers. SEtHyS doesn't rely on TIR data availability but it has more parameters and requires more inputs for initialization. Simulations of both models were compared to in-situ Eddy-Correlation (EC) fluxes, with data from 3 sites in southern France and Morocco, covering several kinds of cultures, various vegetative states and various meteorological conditions. A sensitivity analysis on inputs was used to better characterize their capabilities and behaviors, and quantify error ranges induced by spatialization. Globally, models provide estimations of latent heat flux (LE) with RMSD of around 55W/m2 for TSEB and 45W/m2 for SEtHyS. Energy fluxes partition in TSEB was shown to be relatively less sensitive to some inputs when using only a single set of parameters. However it has lower performances on rising vegetation and stressed vegetation

  17. Heat, Moisture, and Momentum Budgets of Isolated Deep Midlatitude and Tropical Convective Clouds as Diagnosed from Three-Dimensional Model Output. Part I: Control Experiments.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlesinger, Robert E.

    1994-12-01

    This project uses a three-dimensional anelastic cloud model with a simple ice phase parameterization to evaluate the feedback between isolated deep convective clouds and their near surroundings. The horizontal Reynolds averaging approach of Anthes is adopted to diagnose the vertical profiles of the individual budget terms for heat, moisture, and horizontal momentum, as well as the resultant effects of each budget as defined by apparent sources or sinks. The averaging area, 33.75 km on a side, is comparable to one grid cell for typical mesoscale numerical weather prediction models.Two comparative simulations are run, one for a severe Oklahoma thunderstorm in strong vertical wind shear and the other for a tropical Atlantic cumulonimbus in much weaker shear. The midlatitude cloud evolves to a vigorous quasi-steady mature stage with several supercell characteristics including an erect large-diameter updraft, a strong and vertically extensive mesolow, and a well-developed highly asymmetric cold pool that spreads rapidly. In contrast, the tropical updraft is much narrower and slower with a shallow weak midlevel mesolow, leans markedly downshear, and evolves early into slow decay modulated by bubblelike pulsations, while the cold pool is weak and quasi-circular and spreads slowly.There are several similarities between corresponding budgets in the two runs. Most notably: 1) The heat and moisture budgets are dominated by condensation, which is maximized in the midtroposphere. 2) The horizontal pressure gradient force dominates the momentum budget. 3) Vertical eddy transport (flux divergence) is highly important to each budget. Thermodynamically, it acts to mainly cool and dry the lower troposphere, while warming and moistening the upper troposphere, though with a lower crossover level for moisture than for heat. 4) The altitudes of the peak apparent heat sources are determined by the vertical eddy transport of heat. 5) Net evaporation has 40% as much amplitude as the

  18. Stratigraphy of two conjugate margins (Gulf of Lion and West Sardinia): modeling of vertical movements and sediment budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leroux, Estelle; Gorini, Christian; Aslanian, Daniel; Rabineau, Marina; Blanpied, Christian; Rubino, Jean-Loup; Robin, Cécile; Granjeon, Didier; Taillepierre, Rachel

    2016-04-01

    The post-rift (~20-0 Ma) vertical movements of the Provence Basin (West Mediterranean) are quantified on its both conjugate (the Gulf of Lion and the West Sardinia) margins. This work is based on the stratigraphic study of sedimentary markers using a large 3D grid of seismic data, correlations with existing drillings and refraction data. The post-rift subsidence is measured by the direct use of sedimentary geometries analysed in 3D [Gorini et al., 2015; Rabineau et al., 2014] and validated by numerical stratigraphic modelling. Three domains were found: on the platform (1) and slope (2), the subsidence takes the form of a seaward tilting with different amplitudes, whereas the deep basin (3) subsides purely vertically [Leroux et al., 2015a]. These domains correspond to the deeper crustal domains respectively highlighted by wide angle seismic data. The continental crust (1) and the thinned continental crust (2) are tilted, whereas the intermediate crust, identified as lower continental exhumed crust [Moulin et al., 2015, Afhilado et al., 2015] (3) sagged. The post-break-up subsidence re-uses the initial hinge lines of the rifting phase. This striking correlation between surface geologic processes and deep earth dynamic processes emphasizes that the sedimentary record and sedimentary markers is a window into deep geodynamic processes and dynamic topography. Pliocene-Pleistocene seismic markers enabled high resolution quantification of sediment budgets over the past 6 Myr [Leroux et al., in press]. Sediment budget history is here completed on the Miocene interval. Thus, the controlling factors (climate, tectonics and eustasy) are discussed. Afilhado, A., Moulin, M., Aslanian, D., Schnürle, P., Klingelhoefer, F., Nouzé, H., Rabineau, M., Leroux, E. & Beslier, M.-O. (2015). Deep crustal structure across a young 1 passive margin from wide-angle and reflection seismic data (The SARDINIA Experiment) - II. Sardinia's margin. Bull. Soc. géol. France, 186, ILP Spec. issue, 4

  19. Measurement Models for Reasoned Action Theory.

    PubMed

    Hennessy, Michael; Bleakley, Amy; Fishbein, Martin

    2012-03-01

    Quantitative researchers distinguish between causal and effect indicators. What are the analytic problems when both types of measures are present in a quantitative reasoned action analysis? To answer this question, we use data from a longitudinal study to estimate the association between two constructs central to reasoned action theory: behavioral beliefs and attitudes toward the behavior. The belief items are causal indicators that define a latent variable index while the attitude items are effect indicators that reflect the operation of a latent variable scale. We identify the issues when effect and causal indicators are present in a single analysis and conclude that both types of indicators can be incorporated in the analysis of data based on the reasoned action approach.

  20. The Family FIRO Model: The Integration of Group Theory and Family Theory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Colangelo, Nicholas; Doherty, William J.

    1988-01-01

    Presents the Family Fundamental Interpersonal Relations Orientation (Family FIRO) Model, an integration of small-group theory and family therapy. The model is offered as a framework for organizing family issues. Discusses three fundamental issues of human relatedness and their applicability to group dynamics. (Author/NB)

  1. Homogeneous cosmological models in Yang's gravitation theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fennelly, A. J.; Pavelle, R.

    1979-01-01

    We present a dynamic, spatially homogeneous solution of Yang's pure space gravitational field equations which is non-Einsteinian. The predictions of this cosmological model seem to be at variance with observations.

  2. Management by Objectives and Program Planning and Budgeting Systems: A Guidebook for Developing a Model Local Annual Plan and a Model Local Five-Year Plan for Vocational Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ignas, Edward

    The guidebook is intended to acquaint vocational educators with two specific management strategies: Management by Objectives (MBO) and the Program Planning and Budget System (PPBS). The long range goal of this project is the formation of a model local annual plan and model five year plan for vocational education in local school districts…

  3. Water Budget over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Dependency on Horizontal Resolution Simulated By an MRI High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arakawa, O.; Kitoh, A.

    2014-12-01

    We use an MRI atmospheric global model (MRI-AGCM3.2) with three different horizontal resolutions (20km:SPA/60km:HPA/180km:LPA) to examine water budget and its dependency on horizontal resolution of AGCM over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and surrounding mountainous regions at which headwater regions of large rivers are located. Seasonal cycle of atmospheric water budget shows that MRI-AGCM3.2 has a bias to overestimate precipitation over TP all year round, but its bias becomes smaller as the horizontal resolution becomes finer. Surface evaporation has little dependence on the horizontal resolution. Over western TP, precipitation shows a bi-modal seasonal cycle. In SPA and HPA, the primary (secondary) peak is in Jul.-Aug. (Mar.-Apr.), while two peaks have the same magnitude in LPA. A magnitude of the peak in spring becomes smaller as the horizontal resolution becomes finer. In eastern TP, precipitation has its annual maximum in July. In LPA, a larger positive precipitation bias than that in SPA and HPA is explained by a larger positive bias of moisture flux convergence, which implies that there is more moisture inflow into TP in LPA than that in SPA and HPA. Many of global climate models in CMIP5, whose horizontal resolution is 200km or coarser, has potential not to simulate water budget over TP properly, which may impact on a reproducibility of seasonal cycle of streamflow.

  4. 40 CFR 52.244 - Motor vehicle emissions budgets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... planning data and models have been submitted and EPA has found the budgets to be adequate for conformity... conformity purposes only until new budgets based on updated planning data and models have been submitted and... planning data and models have been submitted and EPA has found the budgets to be adequate for...

  5. Modeling Developmental Transitions in Adaptive Resonance Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raijmakers, Maartje E. J.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

    2004-01-01

    Neural networks are applied to a theoretical subject in developmental psychology: modeling developmental transitions. Two issues that are involved will be discussed: discontinuities and acquiring qualitatively new knowledge. We will argue that by the appearance of a bifurcation, a neural network can show discontinuities and may acquire…

  6. Microbial community modeling using reliability theory.

    PubMed

    Zilles, Julie L; Rodríguez, Luis F; Bartolerio, Nicholas A; Kent, Angela D

    2016-08-01

    Linking microbial community composition with the corresponding ecosystem functions remains challenging. Because microbial communities can differ in their functional responses, this knowledge gap limits ecosystem assessment, design and management. To develop models that explicitly incorporate microbial populations and guide efforts to characterize their functional differences, we propose a novel approach derived from reliability engineering. This reliability modeling approach is illustrated here using a microbial ecology dataset from denitrifying bioreactors. Reliability modeling is well-suited for analyzing the stability of complex networks composed of many microbial populations. It could also be applied to evaluate the redundancy within a particular biochemical pathway in a microbial community. Reliability modeling allows characterization of the system's resilience and identification of failure-prone functional groups or biochemical steps, which can then be targeted for monitoring or enhancement. The reliability engineering approach provides a new perspective for unraveling the interactions between microbial community diversity, functional redundancy and ecosystem services, as well as practical tools for the design and management of engineered ecosystems.

  7. Time dependent turbulence modeling and analytical theories of turbulence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rubinstein, R.

    1993-01-01

    By simplifying the direct interaction approximation (DIA) for turbulent shear flow, time dependent formulas are derived for the Reynolds stresses which can be included in two equation models. The Green's function is treated phenomenologically, however, following Smith and Yakhot, we insist on the short and long time limits required by DIA. For small strain rates, perturbative evaluation of the correlation function yields a time dependent theory which includes normal stress effects in simple shear flows. From this standpoint, the phenomenological Launder-Reece-Rodi model is obtained by replacing the Green's function by its long time limit. Eddy damping corrections to short time behavior initiate too quickly in this model; in contrast, the present theory exhibits strong suppression of eddy damping at short times. A time dependent theory for large strain rates is proposed in which large scales are governed by rapid distortion theory while small scales are governed by Kolmogorov inertial range dynamics. At short times and large strain rates, the theory closely matches rapid distortion theory, but at long times it relaxes to an eddy damping model.

  8. Qualitative model-based diagnosis using possibility theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joslyn, Cliff

    1994-01-01

    The potential for the use of possibility in the qualitative model-based diagnosis of spacecraft systems is described. The first sections of the paper briefly introduce the Model-Based Diagnostic (MBD) approach to spacecraft fault diagnosis; Qualitative Modeling (QM) methodologies; and the concepts of possibilistic modeling in the context of Generalized Information Theory (GIT). Then the necessary conditions for the applicability of possibilistic methods to qualitative MBD, and a number of potential directions for such an application, are described.

  9. Federal budget timetable

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    This is the federal budget timetable under the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985 (Gramm-Rudman-Hollings). These deadlines apply to fiscal years (FY) 1987-1991. The deficit reduction measures in Gramm-Rudman-Hollings would lead to a balanced budget in 1991.

  10. School Budget Seminars.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    New York State School Boards Association, Albany.

    This report is a compilation of the presentations made at three New York State School Boards Association seminars on school budgets. The programs consisted of presentations on the relationship of the school district's program to the budget and to budget development, timetable, control, and presentation, as well as to other considerations such as…

  11. School District Budgeting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hartman, William T.

    This book is devoted exclusively to the budgeting process in school districts, unlike the more common generic budgeting texts. As such, it allows an in-depth treatment of both conceptual and practical aspects of budgeting in a single volume. By default, school business officials have had to rely on the state education accounting manual as their…

  12. Dust in fusion plasmas: theory and modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Smirnov, R. D.; Pigarov, A. Yu.; Krasheninnikov, S. I.; Mendis, D. A.; Rosenberg, M.; Rudakov, D.; Tanaka, Y.; Rognlien, T. D.; Soboleva, T. K.; Shukla, P. K.; Bray, B. D.; West, W. P.; Roquemore, A. L.; Skinner, C. H.

    2008-09-07

    Dust may have a large impact on ITER-scale plasma experiments including both safety and performance issues. However, the physics of dust in fusion plasmas is very complex and multifaceted. Here, we discuss different aspects of dust dynamics including dust-plasma, and dust-surface interactions. We consider the models of dust charging, heating, evaporation/sublimation, dust collision with material walls, etc., which are suitable for the conditions of fusion plasmas. The physical models of all these processes have been incorporated into the DUST Transport (DUSTT) code. Numerical simulations demonstrate that dust particles are very mobile and accelerate to large velocities due to the ion drag force (cruise speed >100 m/s). Deep penetration of dust particles toward the plasma core is predicted. It is shown that DUSTT is capable of reproducing many features of recent dust-related experiments, but much more work is still needed.

  13. Attachment theory and theory of planned behavior: an integrative model predicting underage drinking.

    PubMed

    Lac, Andrew; Crano, William D; Berger, Dale E; Alvaro, Eusebio M

    2013-08-01

    Research indicates that peer and maternal bonds play important but sometimes contrasting roles in the outcomes of children. Less is known about attachment bonds to these 2 reference groups in young adults. Using a sample of 351 participants (18 to 20 years of age), the research integrated two theoretical traditions: attachment theory and theory of planned behavior (TPB). The predictive contribution of both theories was examined in the context of underage adult alcohol use. Using full structural equation modeling, results substantiated the hypotheses that secure peer attachment positively predicted norms and behavioral control toward alcohol, but secure maternal attachment inversely predicted attitudes and behavioral control toward alcohol. Alcohol attitudes, norms, and behavioral control each uniquely explained alcohol intentions, which anticipated an increase in alcohol behavior 1 month later. The hypothesized processes were statistically corroborated by tests of indirect and total effects. These findings support recommendations for programs designed to curtail risky levels of underage drinking using the tenets of attachment theory and TPB.

  14. Group theory and biomolecular conformation: I. Mathematical and computational models

    PubMed Central

    Chirikjian, Gregory S

    2010-01-01

    Biological macromolecules, and the complexes that they form, can be described in a variety of ways ranging from quantum mechanical and atomic chemical models, to coarser grained models of secondary structure and domains, to continuum models. At each of these levels, group theory can be used to describe both geometric symmetries and conformational motion. In this survey, a detailed account is provided of how group theory has been applied across computational structural biology to analyze the conformational shape and motion of macromolecules and complexes. PMID:20827378

  15. L∞-algebra models and higher Chern-Simons theories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ritter, Patricia; Sämann, Christian

    2016-10-01

    We continue our study of zero-dimensional field theories in which the fields take values in a strong homotopy Lie algebra. In the first part, we review in detail how higher Chern-Simons theories arise in the AKSZ-formalism. These theories form a universal starting point for the construction of L∞-algebra models. We then show how to describe superconformal field theories and how to perform dimensional reductions in this context. In the second part, we demonstrate that Nambu-Poisson and multisymplectic manifolds are closely related via their Heisenberg algebras. As a byproduct of our discussion, we find central Lie p-algebra extensions of 𝔰𝔬(p + 2). Finally, we study a number of L∞-algebra models which are physically interesting and which exhibit quantized multisymplectic manifolds as vacuum solutions.

  16. Applying learning theories and instructional design models for effective instruction.

    PubMed

    Khalil, Mohammed K; Elkhider, Ihsan A

    2016-06-01

    Faculty members in higher education are involved in many instructional design activities without formal training in learning theories and the science of instruction. Learning theories provide the foundation for the selection of instructional strategies and allow for reliable prediction of their effectiveness. To achieve effective learning outcomes, the science of instruction and instructional design models are used to guide the development of instructional design strategies that elicit appropriate cognitive processes. Here, the major learning theories are discussed and selected examples of instructional design models are explained. The main objective of this article is to present the science of learning and instruction as theoretical evidence for the design and delivery of instructional materials. In addition, this article provides a practical framework for implementing those theories in the classroom and laboratory.

  17. Automated Physico-Chemical Cell Model Development through Information Theory

    SciTech Connect

    Peter J. Ortoleva

    2005-11-29

    The objective of this project was to develop predictive models of the chemical responses of microbial cells to variations in their surroundings. The application of these models is optimization of environmental remediation and energy-producing biotechnical processes.The principles on which our project is based are as follows: chemical thermodynamics and kinetics; automation of calibration through information theory; integration of multiplex data (e.g. cDNA microarrays, NMR, proteomics), cell modeling, and bifurcation theory to overcome cellular complexity; and the use of multiplex data and information theory to calibrate and run an incomplete model. In this report we review four papers summarizing key findings and a web-enabled, multiple module workflow we have implemented that consists of a set of interoperable systems biology computational modules.

  18. New theories of root growth modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landl, Magdalena; Schnepf, Andrea; Vanderborght, Jan; Huber, Katrin; Javaux, Mathieu; Bengough, A. Glyn; Vereecken, Harry

    2016-04-01

    In dynamic root architecture models, root growth is represented by moving root tips whose line trajectory results in the creation of new root segments. Typically, the direction of root growth is calculated as the vector sum of various direction-affecting components. However, in our simulations this did not reproduce experimental observations of root growth in structured soil. We therefore developed a new approach to predict the root growth direction. In this approach we distinguish between, firstly, driving forces for root growth, i.e. the force exerted by the root which points in the direction of the previous root segment and gravitropism, and, secondly, the soil mechanical resistance to root growth or penetration resistance. The latter can be anisotropic, i.e. depending on the direction of growth, which leads to a difference between the direction of the driving force and the direction of the root tip movement. Anisotropy of penetration resistance can be caused either by microscale differences in soil structure or by macroscale features, including macropores. Anisotropy at the microscale is neglected in our model. To allow for this, we include a normally distributed random deflection angle α to the force which points in the direction of the previous root segment with zero mean and a standard deviation σ. The standard deviation σ is scaled, so that the deflection from the original root tip location does not depend on the spatial resolution of the root system model. Similarly to the water flow equation, the direction of the root tip movement corresponds to the water flux vector while the driving forces are related to the water potential gradient. The analogue of the hydraulic conductivity tensor is the root penetrability tensor. It is determined by the inverse of soil penetration resistance and describes the ease with which a root can penetrate the soil. By adapting the three dimensional soil and root water uptake model R-SWMS (Javaux et al., 2008) in this way

  19. The Use of Modelling for Theory Building in Qualitative Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Briggs, Ann R. J.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to exemplify and enhance the place of modelling as a qualitative process in educational research. Modelling is widely used in quantitative research as a tool for analysis, theory building and prediction. Statistical data lend themselves to graphical representation of values, interrelationships and operational…

  20. Goodness-of-Fit Assessment of Item Response Theory Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto

    2013-01-01

    The article provides an overview of goodness-of-fit assessment methods for item response theory (IRT) models. It is now possible to obtain accurate "p"-values of the overall fit of the model if bivariate information statistics are used. Several alternative approaches are described. As the validity of inferences drawn on the fitted model…

  1. Theory and Practice: An Integrative Model Linking Class and Field

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lesser, Joan Granucci; Cooper, Marlene

    2006-01-01

    Social work has evolved over the years taking on the challenges of the times. The profession now espouses a breadth of theoretical approaches and treatment modalities. We have developed a model to help graduate social work students master the skill of integrating theory and social work practice. The Integrative Model has five components: (l) The…

  2. Kinetic theories for spin models for cooperative relaxation dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitts, Steven Jerome

    The facilitated kinetic Ising models with asymmetric spin flip constraints introduced by Jackle and co-workers [J. Jackle, S. Eisinger, Z. Phys. B 84, 115 (1991); J. Reiter, F. Mauch, J. Jackle, Physica A 184, 458 (1992)] exhibit complex relaxation behavior in their associated spin density time correlation functions. This includes the growth of relaxation times over many orders of magnitude when the thermodynamic control parameter is varied, and, in some cases, ergodic-nonergodic transitions. Relaxation equations for the time dependence of the spin density autocorrelation function for a set of these models are developed that relate this autocorrelation function to the irreducible memory function of Kawasaki [K. Kawasaki, Physica A 215, 61 (1995)] using a novel diagrammatic series approach. It is shown that the irreducible memory function in a theory of the relaxation of an autocorrelation function in a Markov model with detailed balance plays the same role as the part of the memory function approximated by a polynomial function of the autocorrelation function with positive coefficients in schematic simple mode coupling theories for supercooled liquids [W. Gotze, in Liquids, Freezing and the Glass Transition, D. Levesque, J. P. Hansen, J. Zinn-Justin eds., 287 (North Holland, New York, 1991)]. Sets of diagrams in the series for the irreducible memory function are summed which lead to approximations of this type. The behavior of these approximations is compared with known results from previous analytical calculations and from numerical simulations. For the simplest one dimensional model, relaxation equations that are closely related to schematic extended mode coupling theories [W. Gotze, ibid] are also derived using the diagrammatic series. Comparison of the results of these approximate theories with simulation data shows that these theories improve significantly on the results of the theories of the simple schematic mode coupling theory type. The potential

  3. Nanofluid Drop Evaporation: Experiment, Theory, and Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerken, William James

    Nanofluids, stable colloidal suspensions of nanoparticles in a base fluid, have potential applications in the heat transfer, combustion and propulsion, manufacturing, and medical fields. Experiments were conducted to determine the evaporation rate of room temperature, millimeter-sized pendant drops of ethanol laden with varying amounts (0-3% by weight) of 40-60 nm aluminum nanoparticles (nAl). Time-resolved high-resolution drop images were collected for the determination of early-time evaporation rate (D2/D 02 > 0.75), shown to exhibit D-square law behavior, and surface tension. Results show an asymptotic decrease in pendant drop evaporation rate with increasing nAl loading. The evaporation rate decreases by approximately 15% at around 1% to 3% nAl loading relative to the evaporation rate of pure ethanol. Surface tension was observed to be unaffected by nAl loading up to 3% by weight. A model was developed to describe the evaporation of the nanofluid pendant drops based on D-square law analysis for the gas domain and a description of the reduction in liquid fraction available for evaporation due to nanoparticle agglomerate packing near the evaporating drop surface. Model predictions are in relatively good agreement with experiment, within a few percent of measured nanofluid pendant drop evaporation rate. The evaporation of pinned nanofluid sessile drops was also considered via modeling. It was found that the same mechanism for nanofluid evaporation rate reduction used to explain pendant drops could be used for sessile drops. That mechanism is a reduction in evaporation rate due to a reduction in available ethanol for evaporation at the drop surface caused by the packing of nanoparticle agglomerates near the drop surface. Comparisons of the present modeling predictions with sessile drop evaporation rate measurements reported for nAl/ethanol nanofluids by Sefiane and Bennacer [11] are in fairly good agreement. Portions of this abstract previously appeared as: W. J

  4. 7 CFR 3402.14 - Budget and budget narrative.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Budget and budget narrative. 3402.14 Section 3402.14... Preparation of an Application § 3402.14 Budget and budget narrative. Applicants must prepare the Budget, Form NIFA-2004, and a budget narrative identifying all costs associated with the application....

  5. 7 CFR 3402.14 - Budget and budget narrative.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Budget and budget narrative. 3402.14 Section 3402.14... Preparation of an Application § 3402.14 Budget and budget narrative. Applicants must prepare the Budget, Form NIFA-2004, and a budget narrative identifying all costs associated with the application....

  6. 7 CFR 3402.14 - Budget and budget narrative.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Budget and budget narrative. 3402.14 Section 3402.14... Preparation of an Application § 3402.14 Budget and budget narrative. Applicants must prepare the Budget, Form NIFA-2004, and a budget narrative identifying all costs associated with the application....

  7. 7 CFR 3402.14 - Budget and budget narrative.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Budget and budget narrative. 3402.14 Section 3402.14... Preparation of an Application § 3402.14 Budget and budget narrative. Applicants must prepare the Budget, Form CSREES-2004, and a budget narrative identifying all costs associated with the application....

  8. A class of effective field theory models of cosmic acceleration

    SciTech Connect

    Bloomfield, Jolyon K.; Flanagan, Éanna É. E-mail: eef3@cornell.edu

    2012-10-01

    We explore a class of effective field theory models of cosmic acceleration involving a metric and a single scalar field. These models can be obtained by starting with a set of ultralight pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone bosons whose couplings to matter satisfy the weak equivalence principle, assuming that one boson is lighter than all the others, and integrating out the heavier fields. The result is a quintessence model with matter coupling, together with a series of correction terms in the action in a covariant derivative expansion, with specific scalings for the coefficients. After eliminating higher derivative terms and exploiting the field redefinition freedom, we show that the resulting theory contains nine independent free functions of the scalar field when truncated at four derivatives. This is in contrast to the four free functions found in similar theories of single-field inflation, where matter is not present. We discuss several different representations of the theory that can be obtained using the field redefinition freedom. For perturbations to the quintessence field today on subhorizon lengthscales larger than the Compton wavelength of the heavy fields, the theory is weakly coupled and natural in the sense of t'Hooft. The theory admits a regime where the perturbations become modestly nonlinear, but very strong nonlinearities lie outside its domain of validity.

  9. Integrated Modeling Program, Applied Chemical Theory (IMPACT)

    PubMed Central

    BANKS, JAY L.; BEARD, HEGE S.; CAO, YIXIANG; CHO, ART E.; DAMM, WOLFGANG; FARID, RAMY; FELTS, ANTHONY K.; HALGREN, THOMAS A.; MAINZ, DANIEL T.; MAPLE, JON R.; MURPHY, ROBERT; PHILIPP, DEAN M.; REPASKY, MATTHEW P.; ZHANG, LINDA Y.; BERNE, BRUCE J.; FRIESNER, RICHARD A.; GALLICCHIO, EMILIO; LEVY, RONALD M.

    2009-01-01

    We provide an overview of the IMPACT molecular mechanics program with an emphasis on recent developments and a description of its current functionality. With respect to core molecular mechanics technologies we include a status report for the fixed charge and polarizable force fields that can be used with the program and illustrate how the force fields, when used together with new atom typing and parameter assignment modules, have greatly expanded the coverage of organic compounds and medicinally relevant ligands. As we discuss in this review, explicit solvent simulations have been used to guide our design of implicit solvent models based on the generalized Born framework and a novel nonpolar estimator that have recently been incorporated into the program. With IMPACT it is possible to use several different advanced conformational sampling algorithms based on combining features of molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations. The program includes two specialized molecular mechanics modules: Glide, a high-throughput docking program, and QSite, a mixed quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics module. These modules employ the IMPACT infrastructure as a starting point for the construction of the protein model and assignment of molecular mechanics parameters, but have then been developed to meet specialized objectives with respect to sampling and the energy function. PMID:16211539

  10. Integrated Modeling Program, Applied Chemical Theory (IMPACT).

    PubMed

    Banks, Jay L; Beard, Hege S; Cao, Yixiang; Cho, Art E; Damm, Wolfgang; Farid, Ramy; Felts, Anthony K; Halgren, Thomas A; Mainz, Daniel T; Maple, Jon R; Murphy, Robert; Philipp, Dean M; Repasky, Matthew P; Zhang, Linda Y; Berne, Bruce J; Friesner, Richard A; Gallicchio, Emilio; Levy, Ronald M

    2005-12-01

    We provide an overview of the IMPACT molecular mechanics program with an emphasis on recent developments and a description of its current functionality. With respect to core molecular mechanics technologies we include a status report for the fixed charge and polarizable force fields that can be used with the program and illustrate how the force fields, when used together with new atom typing and parameter assignment modules, have greatly expanded the coverage of organic compounds and medicinally relevant ligands. As we discuss in this review, explicit solvent simulations have been used to guide our design of implicit solvent models based on the generalized Born framework and a novel nonpolar estimator that have recently been incorporated into the program. With IMPACT it is possible to use several different advanced conformational sampling algorithms based on combining features of molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations. The program includes two specialized molecular mechanics modules: Glide, a high-throughput docking program, and QSite, a mixed quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics module. These modules employ the IMPACT infrastructure as a starting point for the construction of the protein model and assignment of molecular mechanics parameters, but have then been developed to meet specialized objectives with respect to sampling and the energy function.

  11. A Brinkmanship Game Theory Model of Terrorism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melese, Francois

    This study reveals conditions under which a world leader might credibly issue a brinkmanship threat of preemptive action to deter sovereign states or transnational terrorist organizations from acquiring weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The model consists of two players: the United Nations (UN) “Principal,” and a terrorist organization “Agent.” The challenge in issuing a brinkmanship threat is that it needs to be sufficiently unpleasant to deter terrorists from acquiring WMD, while not being so repugnant to those that must carry it out that they would refuse to do so. Two “credibility constraints” are derived. The first relates to the unknown terrorist type (Hard or Soft), and the second to acceptable risks (“blowback”) to the World community. Graphing the incentive-compatible Nash equilibrium solutions reveals when a brinkmanship threat is credible, and when it is not - either too weak to be effective, or unacceptably dangerous to the World community.

  12. Scaling Theory and Modeling of DNA Evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buldyrev, Sergey V.

    1998-03-01

    We present evidence supporting the possibility that the nucleotide sequence in noncoding DNA is power-law correlated. We do not find such long-range correlation in the coding regions of the gene, so we build a ``coding sequence finder'' to locate the coding regions of an unknown DNA sequence. We also propose a different coding sequence finding algorithm, based on the concept of mutual information(I. Große, S. V. Buldyrev, H. Herzel, H. E. Stanley, (preprint).). We describe our recent work on quantification of DNA patchiness, using long-range correlation measures (G. M. Viswanathan, S. V. Buldyrev, S. Havlin, and H. E. Stanley, Biophysical Journal 72), 866-875 (1997).. We also present our recent study of the simple repeat length distributions. We find that the distributions of some simple repeats in noncoding DNA have long power-law tails, while in coding DNA all simple repeat distributions decay exponentially. (N. V. Dokholyan, S. V. Buldyrev, S. Havlin, and H. E. Stanley, Phys. Rev. Lett (in press).) We discuss several models based on insertion-deletion and mutation-duplication mechanisms that relate long-range correlations in non-coding DNA to DNA evolution. Specifically, we relate long-range correlations in non-coding DNA to simple repeat expansion, and propose an evolutionary model that reproduces the power law distribution of simple repeat lengths. We argue that the absence of long-range correlations in protein coding sequences is related to their highly conserved primary structure which is necessary to insure protein folding.

  13. Atmospheric deposition impacts on nutrients and biological budgets of the Mediterranean Sea, results from the high resolution coupled model NEMOMED12/PISCES

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richon, Camille; Dutay, Jean-Claude; Dulac, François; Desboeufs, Karine; Nabat, Pierre; Guieu, Cécile; Aumont, Olivier; Palmieri, Julien

    2016-04-01

    Atmospheric deposition is at present not included in regional oceanic biogeochemical models of the Mediterranean Sea, whereas, along with river inputs, it represents a significant source of nutrients at the basin scale, especially through intense desert dust events. Moreover, observations (e.g. DUNE campaign, Guieu et al. 2010) show that these events significantly modify the biogeochemistry of the oligotrophic Mediterranean Sea. We use a high resolution (1/12°) version of the 3D coupled model NEMOMED12/PISCES to investigate the effects of high resolution atmospheric dust deposition forcings on the biogeochemistry of the Mediterranean basin. The biogeochemical model PISCES represents the evolution of 24 prognostic tracers including five nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, phosphate, silicate and iron) and two phytoplankton and zooplanktons groups (Palmiéri, 2014). From decadal simulations (1982-2012) we evaluate the influence of natural dust and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition on the budget of nutrients in the basin and its impact on the biogeochemistry (primary production, plankton distributions...). Our results show that natural dust deposition accounts for 15% of global PO4 budget and that it influences primarily the southern part of the basin. Anthropogenic nitrogen accounts for 50% of bioavailable N supply for the northern part. Deposition events significantly affect biological production; primary productivity enhancement can be as high as 30% in the areas of high deposition, especially during the stratified period. Further developments of the model will include 0D and 1D modeling of bacteria in the frame of the PEACETIME project.

  14. Quantifying spatial patterns and timescales of fine sediment redistribution in river basins: application of a sediment budget model with fallout radionuclide tracers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Hugh; Blake, William; Taylor, Alex

    2013-04-01

    Improved understanding of fine sediment and associated contaminant redistribution within river basins requires information on the sources and rates of sediment supply alongside the timescales of downstream sediment transfer. Sediment budgets are an effective tool for examining these patterns. While small, intensively monitored research catchments may provide such information, the examination of larger scale patterns of sediment transfer often requires the use of modelling-based approaches. Furthermore, knowledge of timescales of fine sediment transfer in river basins is limited. Few studies link sediment budgets with explicit information on the residence or travel times of fine sediment. This information is essential for understanding contemporary patterns of river basin sediment redistribution, and has implications for predicting possible recovery times of rivers affected by contaminated sediment from historic or recent pollution. Against this background, we aim to quantify the spatial patterns and timescales of suspended sediment transfer through a river basin (917 km2) situated in south-west England. We apply a spatially-distributed sediment budget model (SedNet) in conjunction with high-resolution spatial data and long-term rainfall and river flow measurements. Model outputs provide an indication of mean annual patterns of sediment redistribution and yields, which were computed for three land cover surveys. This modelling was coupled with techniques for estimating fine sediment residence times, which are based on differences in the decay rates of three fallout radionuclides (Be-7, excess Pb-210 and Cs-137). Findings from this study demonstrate the need for more integrated approaches to better understand spatial patterns and timescales of sediment redistribution in river basins.

  15. Putting "Organizations" into an Organization Theory Course: A Hybrid CAO Model for Teaching Organization Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hannah, David R.; Venkatachary, Ranga

    2010-01-01

    In this article, the authors present a retrospective analysis of an instructor's multiyear redesign of a course on organization theory into what is called a hybrid Classroom-as-Organization model. It is suggested that this new course design served to apprentice students to function in quasi-real organizational structures. The authors further argue…

  16. Integrating Developmental Theory and Methodology: Using Derivatives to Articulate Change Theories, Models, and Inferences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deboeck, Pascal R.; Nicholson, Jody; Kouros, Chrystyna; Little, Todd D.; Garber, Judy

    2015-01-01

    Matching theories about growth, development, and change to appropriate statistical models can present a challenge, which can result in misuse, misinterpretation, and underutilization of different analytical approaches. We discuss the use of "derivatives": the change of a construct with respect to the change in another construct.…

  17. M-theory model-building and proton stability

    SciTech Connect

    Ellis, J.; Faraggi, A.E.; Nanopoulos, D.V. ||

    1997-09-01

    The authors study the problem of baryon stability in M theory, starting from realistic four-dimensional string models constructed using the free-fermion formulation of the weakly-coupled heterotic string. Suitable variants of these models manifest an enhanced custodial gauge symmetry that forbids to all orders the appearance of dangerous dimension-five baryon-decay operators. The authors exhibit the underlying geometric (bosonic) interpretation of these models, which have a Z{sub 2} x Z{sub 2} orbifold structure similar, but not identical, to the class of Calabi-Yau threefold compactifications of M and F theory investigated by Voisin and Borcea. A related generalization of their work may provide a solution to the problem of proton stability in M theory.

  18. A theory of exchange rate modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Alekseev, A.A.

    1995-09-01

    The article examines exchange rate modeling for two cases: (a) when the trading partners have mutual interests and (b) when the trading partners have antogonistic interests. Exchange rates in world markets are determined by supply and demand for the currency of each state, and states may control the exchange rate of their currency by changing the interest rate, the volume of credit, and product prices in both domestic and export markets. Abstracting from issues of production and technology in different countries and also ignoring various trade, institutional, and other barriers, we consider in this article only the effect of export and import prices on the exchange rate, we propose a new criterion of external trade activity: each trading partner earns a profit which is proportional to the volume of benefits enjoyed by the other partner. We consider a trading cycle that consists of four stages: (a) purchase of goods in the domestic market with the object of selling them abroad; (b) sale of the goods in foreign markets; (c) purchase of goods abroad with the object of selling them in the domestic market; (d) sale of the goods domestically.

  19. Reconstructing constructivism: causal models, Bayesian learning mechanisms, and the theory theory.

    PubMed

    Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M

    2012-11-01

    We propose a new version of the "theory theory" grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework theories. We outline the new theoretical ideas, explain the computational framework in an intuitive and nontechnical way, and review an extensive but relatively recent body of empirical results that supports these ideas. These include new studies of the mechanisms of learning. Children infer causal structure from statistical information, through their own actions on the world and through observations of the actions of others. Studies demonstrate these learning mechanisms in children from 16 months to 4 years old and include research on causal statistical learning, informal experimentation through play, and imitation and informal pedagogy. They also include studies of the variability and progressive character of intuitive theory change, particularly theory of mind. These studies investigate both the physical and the psychological and social domains. We conclude with suggestions for further collaborative projects between developmental and computational cognitive scientists.

  20. Modelling spatio-temporal variability of Mytilus edulis (L.) growth by forcing a dynamic energy budget model with satellite-derived environmental data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Yoann; Mazurié, Joseph; Alunno-Bruscia, Marianne; Bacher, Cédric; Bouget, Jean-François; Gohin, Francis; Pouvreau, Stéphane; Struski, Caroline

    2011-11-01

    In order to assess the potential of various marine ecosystems for shellfish aquaculture and to evaluate their carrying capacities, there is a need to clarify the response of exploited species to environmental variations using robust ecophysiological models and available environmental data. For a large range of applications and comparison purposes, a non-specific approach based on 'generic' individual growth models offers many advantages. In this context, we simulated the response of blue mussel ( Mytilus edulis L.) to the spatio-temporal fluctuations of the environment in Mont Saint-Michel Bay (North Brittany) by forcing a generic growth model based on Dynamic Energy Budgets with satellite-derived environmental data (i.e. temperature and food). After a calibration step based on data from mussel growth surveys, the model was applied over nine years on a large area covering the entire bay. These simulations provide an evaluation of the spatio-temporal variability in mussel growth and also show the ability of the DEB model to integrate satellite-derived data and to predict spatial and temporal growth variability of mussels. Observed seasonal, inter-annual and spatial growth variations are well simulated. The large-scale application highlights the strong link between food and mussel growth. The methodology described in this study may be considered as a suitable approach to account for environmental effects (food and temperature variations) on physiological responses (growth and reproduction) of filter feeders in varying environments. Such physiological responses may then be useful for evaluating the suitability of coastal ecosystems for shellfish aquaculture.

  1. Theory of compressive modeling and simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szu, Harold; Cha, Jae; Espinola, Richard L.; Krapels, Keith

    2013-05-01

    Modeling and Simulation (M&S) has been evolving along two general directions: (i) data-rich approach suffering the curse of dimensionality and (ii) equation-rich approach suffering computing power and turnaround time. We suggest a third approach. We call it (iii) compressive M&S (CM&S); because the basic Minimum Free-Helmholtz Energy (MFE) facilitating CM&S can reproduce and generalize Candes, Romberg, Tao & Donoho (CRT&D) Compressive Sensing (CS) paradigm as a linear Lagrange Constraint Neural network (LCNN) algorithm. CM&S based MFE can generalize LCNN to 2nd order as Nonlinear augmented LCNN. For example, during the sunset, we can avoid a reddish bias of sunlight illumination due to a long-range Rayleigh scattering over the horizon. With CM&S we can take instead of day camera, a night vision camera. We decomposed long wave infrared (LWIR) band with filter into 2 vector components (8~10μm and 10~12μm) and used LCNN to find pixel by pixel the map of Emissive-Equivalent Planck Radiation Sources (EPRS). Then, we up-shifted consistently, according to de-mixed sources map, to the sub-micron RGB color image. Moreover, the night vision imaging can also be down-shifted at Passive Millimeter Wave (PMMW) imaging, suffering less blur owing to dusty smokes scattering and enjoying apparent smoothness of surface reflectivity of man-made objects under the Rayleigh resolution. One loses three orders of magnitudes in the spatial Rayleigh resolution; but gains two orders of magnitude in the reflectivity, and gains another two orders in the propagation without obscuring smog . Since CM&S can generate missing data and hard to get dynamic transients, CM&S can reduce unnecessary measurements and their associated cost and computing in the sense of super-saving CS: measuring one & getting one's neighborhood free .

  2. Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Budget of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The annual energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is characterized by a net heat loss at the air-sea interface that is balanced by oceanic heat transport into the Arctic. The energy loss at the air-sea interface is due to the combined effects of radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. The inflow of heat by the ocean can be divided into two components: the transport of water masses of different temperatures between the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the export of sea ice, primarily through Fram Strait. Two 150-year simulations (1950-2099) of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. One is a control simulation for the present climate with constant 1950 atmospheric composition, and the other is a transient experiment with observed GHGs from 1950 to 1990 and 0.5% annual compounded increases of CO2 after 1990. For the present climate the model agrees well with observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, atmospheric advective energy transport into the Arctic, and surface air temperature. It also simulates the seasonal cycle and summer increase of cloud cover and the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover. In addition, the changes in high-latitude surface air temperature and sea-ice cover in the GHG experiment are consistent with observed changes during the last 40 and 20 years, respectively. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that even though the net annual incident solar radiation at the surface decreases by 4.6 W(per square meters) (because of greater cloud cover and increased cloud optical depth), the absorbed solar radiation increases by 2.8 W(per square meters) (because of less sea ice). Increased cloud cover and warmer air also cause increased downward thermal radiation at the surface so that the net radiation into the ocean increases by 5.0 Wm-2. The annual increase in radiation into the ocean, however, is

  3. Theory to practice: the humanbecoming leading-following model.

    PubMed

    Ursel, Karen L

    2015-01-01

    Guided by the humanbecoming leading-following model, the author designed a nursing theories course with the intention of creating a meaningful nursing theory to practice link. The author perceived that with the implementation of Situation-Background-Assessment-Recommendations (SBAR) communication, nursing staff had drifted away from using the Kardex™ in shift to shift reporting. Nurse students, faculty, and staff members supported the creation of a theories project which would engage nursing students in the pursuit of clinical excellence. The project chosen was to revise the existing Kardex™ (predominant nursing communication tool). In the project, guided by a nursing theory, nursing students focused on the unique patient's experience, depicting the specific role of nursing knowledge and the contributions of the registered nurse to the patient's healthcare journey. The emphasis of this theoretical learning was the application of a nursing theory to real-life clinical challenges with communication of relevant, timely, and accurate patient information, recognizing that real problems are often complex and require multi-perspective approaches. This project created learning opportunities where a nursing theory would be chosen by the nursing student clinical group and applied in their clinical specialty area. This practice activity served to broaden student understandings of the role of nursing knowledge and nursing theories in their professional practice. PMID:25520461

  4. Zero Based Budgeting for Voc Ed

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chuang, Ying C.

    1977-01-01

    To help vocational education budget planners take a good look each year at where they are going, what they are trying to accomplish, and where to put their money, this article describes the 12 steps in a model commonly used for zero based budgeting. (Author/HD)

  5. Supersymmetry and String Theory: Beyond the Standard Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dine, Michael

    2007-01-01

    The past decade has witnessed dramatic developments in the field of theoretical physics. This book is a comprehensive introduction to these recent developments. It contains a review of the Standard Model, covering non-perturbative topics, and a discussion of grand unified theories and magnetic monopoles. It introduces the basics of supersymmetry and its phenomenology, and includes dynamics, dynamical supersymmetry breaking, and electric-magnetic duality. The book then covers general relativity and the big bang theory, and the basic issues in inflationary cosmologies before discussing the spectra of known string theories and the features of their interactions. The book also includes brief introductions to technicolor, large extra dimensions, and the Randall-Sundrum theory of warped spaces. This will be of great interest to graduates and researchers in the fields of particle theory, string theory, astrophysics and cosmology. The book contains several problems, and password protected solutions will be available to lecturers at www.cambridge.org/9780521858410. Provides reader with tools to confront limitations of the Standard Model Includes several exercises and problems Solutions are available to lecturers at www.cambridge.org/9780521858410

  6. Cosmological models in Weyl geometrical scalar-tensor theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pucheu, M. L.; Alves Junior, F. A. P.; Barreto, A. B.; Romero, C.

    2016-09-01

    We investigate cosmological models in a recently proposed geometrical theory of gravity, in which the scalar field appears as part of the spacetime geometry. We extend the previous theory to include a scalar potential in the action. We solve the vacuum field equations for different choices of the scalar potential and give a detailed analysis of the solutions. We show that, in some cases, a cosmological scenario is found that seems to suggest the appearance of a geometric phase transition. We build a toy model, in which the accelerated expansion of the early Universe is driven by pure geometry.

  7. Consistent constraints on the Standard Model Effective Field Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berthier, Laure; Trott, Michael

    2016-02-01

    We develop the global constraint picture in the (linear) effective field theory generalisation of the Standard Model, incorporating data from detectors that operated at PEP, PETRA, TRISTAN, SpS, Tevatron, SLAC, LEPI and LEP II, as well as low energy precision data. We fit one hundred and three observables. We develop a theory error metric for this effective field theory, which is required when constraints on parameters at leading order in the power counting are to be pushed to the percent level, or beyond, unless the cut off scale is assumed to be large, Λ ≳ 3 TeV. We more consistently incorporate theoretical errors in this work, avoiding this assumption, and as a direct consequence bounds on some leading parameters are relaxed. We show how an S, T analysis is modified by the theory errors we include as an illustrative example.

  8. Unifying all classical spin models in a lattice gauge theory.

    PubMed

    De las Cuevas, G; Dür, W; Briegel, H J; Martin-Delgado, M A

    2009-06-12

    The partition function of all classical spin models, including all discrete standard statistical models and all Abelian discrete lattice gauge theories (LGTs), is expressed as a special instance of the partition function of the 4D Z2 LGT. This unifies all classical spin models with apparently very different features in a single complete model. This result is applied to establish a new method to compute the mean-field theory of Abelian discrete LGTs with d > or = 4, and to show that computing the partition function of the 4D Z2 LGT is computationally hard (#P hard). The 4D Z2 LGT is also proved to be approximately complete for Abelian continuous models. The proof uses techniques from quantum information.

  9. Conceptual models for implementing biopsychosocial theory in clinical practice.

    PubMed

    Jones, M; Edwards, I; Gifford, L

    2002-02-01

    The integration of the biopsychosocial model into manual therapy practice is challenging for clinicians, especially for those who have not received formal training in biopsychosocial theory or its application. In this masterclass two contemporary models of health and disability are presented along with a model for organizing clinical knowledge, and a model of reasoning strategies that will assist clinicians in their understanding and application of biopsychosocial theory. All four models emphasise the importance of understanding and managing both the psychosocial and the biomedical aspects of patients' problems. Facilitating change in patients' (and clinicians') perspectives on pain and its biopsychosocial influences requires them to reflect on their underlying assumptions and the basis of those beliefs. Through this reflective process perspectives will be transformed, and for clinicians, in time, different management practices will emerge.

  10. Main problems in the theory of modeling of catalytic processes

    SciTech Connect

    Pisarenko, V.N.

    1994-09-01

    This paper formulates the main problems in the theory of modeling of catalytic processes yet to be solved and describes the stages of modeling. Fundamental problems of model construction for the physico-chemical phenomena and processes taking place in a catalytic reactor are considered. New methods for determining the mechanism of a catalytic reaction and selecting a kinetic model for it are analyzed. The use of the results of specially controlled experiments for the construction of models of a catalyst grain and a catalytic reactor is discussed. Algorithms are presented for determining the muliplicity of stationary states in the operation of a catalyst grain and a catalytic reactor.

  11. Modelling machine ensembles with discrete event dynamical system theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hunter, Dan

    1990-01-01

    Discrete Event Dynamical System (DEDS) theory can be utilized as a control strategy for future complex machine ensembles that will be required for in-space construction. The control strategy involves orchestrating a set of interactive submachines to perform a set of tasks for a given set of constraints such as minimum time, minimum energy, or maximum machine utilization. Machine ensembles can be hierarchically modeled as a global model that combines the operations of the individual submachines. These submachines are represented in the global model as local models. Local models, from the perspective of DEDS theory , are described by the following: a set of system and transition states, an event alphabet that portrays actions that takes a submachine from one state to another, an initial system state, a partial function that maps the current state and event alphabet to the next state, and the time required for the event to occur. Each submachine in the machine ensemble is presented by a unique local model. The global model combines the local models such that the local models can operate in parallel under the additional logistic and physical constraints due to submachine interactions. The global model is constructed from the states, events, event functions, and timing requirements of the local models. Supervisory control can be implemented in the global model by various methods such as task scheduling (open-loop control) or implementing a feedback DEDS controller (closed-loop control).

  12. Coarse-grained theory of a realistic tetrahedral liquid model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Procaccia, I.; Regev, I.

    2012-02-01

    Tetrahedral liquids such as water and silica-melt show unusual thermodynamic behavior such as a density maximum and an increase in specific heat when cooled to low temperatures. Previous work had shown that Monte Carlo and mean-field solutions of a lattice model can exhibit these anomalous properties with or without a phase transition, depending on the values of the different terms in the Hamiltonian. Here we use a somewhat different approach, where we start from a very popular empirical model of tetrahedral liquids —the Stillinger-Weber model— and construct a coarse-grained theory which directly quantifies the local structure of the liquid as a function of volume and temperature. We compare the theory to molecular-dynamics simulations and show that the theory can rationalize the simulation results and the anomalous behavior.

  13. Integrating social capital theory, social cognitive theory, and the technology acceptance model to explore a behavioral model of telehealth systems.

    PubMed

    Tsai, Chung-Hung

    2014-05-01

    Telehealth has become an increasingly applied solution to delivering health care to rural and underserved areas by remote health care professionals. This study integrated social capital theory, social cognitive theory, and the technology acceptance model (TAM) to develop a comprehensive behavioral model for analyzing the relationships among social capital factors (social capital theory), technological factors (TAM), and system self-efficacy (social cognitive theory) in telehealth. The proposed framework was validated with 365 respondents from Nantou County, located in Central Taiwan. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to assess the causal relationships that were hypothesized in the proposed model. The finding indicates that elderly residents generally reported positive perceptions toward the telehealth system. Generally, the findings show that social capital factors (social trust, institutional trust, and social participation) significantly positively affect the technological factors (perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness respectively), which influenced usage intention. This study also confirmed that system self-efficacy was the salient antecedent of perceived ease of use. In addition, regarding the samples, the proposed model fitted considerably well. The proposed integrative psychosocial-technological model may serve as a theoretical basis for future research and can also offer empirical foresight to practitioners and researchers in the health departments of governments, hospitals, and rural communities. PMID:24810577

  14. Integrating Social Capital Theory, Social Cognitive Theory, and the Technology Acceptance Model to Explore a Behavioral Model of Telehealth Systems

    PubMed Central

    Tsai, Chung-Hung

    2014-01-01

    Telehealth has become an increasingly applied solution to delivering health care to rural and underserved areas by remote health care professionals. This study integrated social capital theory, social cognitive theory, and the technology acceptance model (TAM) to develop a comprehensive behavioral model for analyzing the relationships among social capital factors (social capital theory), technological factors (TAM), and system self-efficacy (social cognitive theory) in telehealth. The proposed framework was validated with 365 respondents from Nantou County, located in Central Taiwan. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to assess the causal relationships that were hypothesized in the proposed model. The finding indicates that elderly residents generally reported positive perceptions toward the telehealth system. Generally, the findings show that social capital factors (social trust, institutional trust, and social participation) significantly positively affect the technological factors (perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness respectively), which influenced usage intention. This study also confirmed that system self-efficacy was the salient antecedent of perceived ease of use. In addition, regarding the samples, the proposed model fitted considerably well. The proposed integrative psychosocial-technological model may serve as a theoretical basis for future research and can also offer empirical foresight to practitioners and researchers in the health departments of governments, hospitals, and rural communities. PMID:24810577

  15. Integrating social capital theory, social cognitive theory, and the technology acceptance model to explore a behavioral model of telehealth systems.

    PubMed

    Tsai, Chung-Hung

    2014-05-07

    Telehealth has become an increasingly applied solution to delivering health care to rural and underserved areas by remote health care professionals. This study integrated social capital theory, social cognitive theory, and the technology acceptance model (TAM) to develop a comprehensive behavioral model for analyzing the relationships among social capital factors (social capital theory), technological factors (TAM), and system self-efficacy (social cognitive theory) in telehealth. The proposed framework was validated with 365 respondents from Nantou County, located in Central Taiwan. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to assess the causal relationships that were hypothesized in the proposed model. The finding indicates that elderly residents generally reported positive perceptions toward the telehealth system. Generally, the findings show that social capital factors (social trust, institutional trust, and social participation) significantly positively affect the technological factors (perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness respectively), which influenced usage intention. This study also confirmed that system self-efficacy was the salient antecedent of perceived ease of use. In addition, regarding the samples, the proposed model fitted considerably well. The proposed integrative psychosocial-technological model may serve as a theoretical basis for future research and can also offer empirical foresight to practitioners and researchers in the health departments of governments, hospitals, and rural communities.

  16. Teaching Model Building to High School Students: Theory and Reality.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roberts, Nancy; Barclay, Tim

    1988-01-01

    Builds on a National Science Foundation (NSF) microcomputer based laboratory project to introduce system dynamics into the precollege setting. Focuses on providing students with powerful and investigatory theory building tools. Discusses developed hardware, software, and curriculum materials used to introduce model building and simulations into…

  17. A Model to Demonstrate the Place Theory of Hearing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ganesh, Gnanasenthil; Srinivasan, Venkata Subramanian; Krishnamurthi, Sarayu

    2016-01-01

    In this brief article, the authors discuss Georg von Békésy's experiments showing the existence of traveling waves in the basilar membrane and that maximal displacement of the traveling wave was determined by the frequency of the sound. The place theory of hearing equates the basilar membrane to a frequency analyzer. The model described in this…

  18. Multilevel Higher-Order Item Response Theory Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huang, Hung-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung

    2014-01-01

    In the social sciences, latent traits often have a hierarchical structure, and data can be sampled from multiple levels. Both hierarchical latent traits and multilevel data can occur simultaneously. In this study, we developed a general class of item response theory models to accommodate both hierarchical latent traits and multilevel data. The…

  19. Medical Specialty Decision Model: Utilizing Social Cognitive Career Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gibson, Denise D.; Borges, Nicole J.

    2004-01-01

    Objectives: The purpose of this study was to develop a working model to explain medical specialty decision-making. Using Social Cognitive Career Theory, we examined personality, medical specialty preferences, job satisfaction, and expectations about specialty choice to create a conceptual framework to guide specialty choice decision-making.…

  20. Using SAS PROC MCMC for Item Response Theory Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ames, Allison J.; Samonte, Kelli

    2015-01-01

    Interest in using Bayesian methods for estimating item response theory models has grown at a remarkable rate in recent years. This attentiveness to Bayesian estimation has also inspired a growth in available software such as WinBUGS, R packages, BMIRT, MPLUS, and SAS PROC MCMC. This article intends to provide an accessible overview of Bayesian…

  1. Conceptualizations of Creativity: Comparing Theories and Models of Giftedness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Angie L.

    2012-01-01

    This article reviews seven different theories of giftedness that include creativity as a component, comparing and contrasting how each one conceptualizes creativity as a part of giftedness. The functions of creativity vary across the models, suggesting that while the field of gifted education often cites the importance of creativity, the…

  2. Dimensions of Genocide: The Circumplex Model Meets Violentization Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winton, Mark A.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the use of Olson's (1995, 2000) family therapy based circumplex model and Athens' (1992, 1997, 2003) violentization theory in explaining genocide. The Rwandan genocide of 1994 is used as a case study. Published texts, including interviews with perpetrators, research reports, human rights reports, and court…

  3. Application of Health Promotion Theories and Models for Environmental Health

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Edith A.; Baldwin, Grant T.; Israel, Barbara; Salinas, Maria A.

    2004-01-01

    The field of environmental health promotion gained new prominence in recent years as awareness of physical environmental stressors and exposures increased in communities across the country and the world. Although many theories and conceptual models are used routinely to guide health promotion and health education interventions, they are rarely…

  4. A Proposed Model of Jazz Theory Knowledge Acquisition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ciorba, Charles R.; Russell, Brian E.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to test a hypothesized model that proposes a causal relationship between motivation and academic achievement on the acquisition of jazz theory knowledge. A reliability analysis of the latent variables ranged from 0.92 to 0.94. Confirmatory factor analyses of the motivation (standardized root mean square residual…

  5. F-theory duals of singular heterotic K3 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lüdeling, Christoph; Ruehle, Fabian

    2015-01-01

    We study F-theory duals of singular heterotic K3 models that correspond to Abelian toroidal orbifolds T4/ZN . While our focus is on the standard embedding, we also comment on models with Wilson lines and more general gauge embeddings. In the process of constructing the duals, we work out a Weierstrass description of the heterotic toroidal orbifold models, which exhibit singularities of Kodaira type I0* , IV * , II I * , and II * . This construction unveils properties like the instanton number per fixed point and a correlation between the orbifold order and the multiplicities in the Dynkin diagram. The results from the Weierstrass description are then used to restrict the complex structure of the F-theory Calabi-Yau threefold such that the gauge group and the matter spectrum of the heterotic theories are reproduced. We also comment on previous approaches that have been employed to construct the duality and point out the differences and limitations in our case. Our results show explicitly how the various orbifold models are connected and described in F-theory.

  6. Evaluating hydrological model performance using information theory-based metrics

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The accuracy-based model performance metrics not necessarily reflect the qualitative correspondence between simulated and measured streamflow time series. The objective of this work was to use the information theory-based metrics to see whether they can be used as complementary tool for hydrologic m...

  7. Item Response Theory Models for Performance Decline during Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jin, Kuan-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung

    2014-01-01

    Sometimes, test-takers may not be able to attempt all items to the best of their ability (with full effort) due to personal factors (e.g., low motivation) or testing conditions (e.g., time limit), resulting in poor performances on certain items, especially those located toward the end of a test. Standard item response theory (IRT) models fail to…

  8. Item Response Theory Modeling of the Philadelphia Naming Test

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fergadiotis, Gerasimos; Kellough, Stacey; Hula, William D.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: In this study, we investigated the fit of the Philadelphia Naming Test (PNT; Roach, Schwartz, Martin, Grewal, & Brecher, 1996) to an item-response-theory measurement model, estimated the precision of the resulting scores and item parameters, and provided a theoretical rationale for the interpretation of PNT overall scores by relating…

  9. An NCME Instructional Module on Polytomous Item Response Theory Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Penfield, Randall David

    2014-01-01

    A polytomous item is one for which the responses are scored according to three or more categories. Given the increasing use of polytomous items in assessment practices, item response theory (IRT) models specialized for polytomous items are becoming increasingly common. The purpose of this ITEMS module is to provide an accessible overview of…

  10. Simulation and Evaluation of the Nitrogen Cycle in the Dynamic Land Model LM3V: The Nitrogen budget of the Susquehanna River Watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, M.; Jaffe, P. R.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.

    2011-12-01

    Anthropogenic nutrient inputs have increasingly altered the global natural N cycle and caused an accumulation of excess N in some terrestrial systems. Application of the Princeton-Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) LM3V land model to the Susquehanna River basin watershed has been used to identify and predict these human impacts, and how they are linked to different weather patterns. By coupling biophysical and biogeochemical dynamics, LM3V captures key mechanisms of the plant-soil-climate system. The Susquehanna River is the largest of the watersheds in the northeastern U.S. and provides two-thirds of the annual N load to the Chesapeake Bay, draining an area of 71,200 square kilometers. The goal of this study is to test and verify the water and N budgets in the LM3V model before developing the N dynamics for a river within the overall model. The model was run using the output of the GFDL AM2 model and observed precipitations cycled over a horizon of 20 years, to perform 1495-year long-term simulations with a 0.125 degree resolution. This study analyzes the model output for two runs: 1) a 1200-year run without any anthropogenic inputs, and 2) a 295-year run with the additions of landuse, anthropogenic N-deposition (1616 kg km-2 yr-1), and fertilizer application (1905 N kg km-2 yr -1 to the crop land). For each run, 20-year average simulated water and N budgets for a single point (77w and 40 50'N) are compared to measured values. Simulated (457 mm/yr) and observed (453 mm/yr) stream discharge rates were in close agreement. The results of the non-anthropogenic N budgets differed substantially from the reported N budgets. The run considering human influences resulted in N budgets that corresponded well to reported values. The model simulated forest (70%), crop (23%), and pasture (7%) land uses. Leaching, harvest, and fixation rates varied depending on the different land use types. Pasture land had the highest leaching rate (1436 N kg km-2 yr-1) due to lower

  11. The adhesion model as a field theory for cosmological clustering

    SciTech Connect

    Rigopoulos, Gerasimos

    2015-01-01

    The adhesion model has been proposed in the past as an improvement of the Zel'dovich approximation, providing a good description of the formation of the cosmic web. We recast the model as a field theory for cosmological large scale structure, adding a stochastic force to account for power generated from very short, highly non-linear scales that is uncorrelated with the initial power spectrum. The dynamics of this Stochastic Adhesion Model (SAM) is reminiscent of the well known Kardar-Parisi-Zhang equation with the difference that the viscosity and the noise spectrum are time dependent. Choosing the viscosity proportional to the growth factor D restricts the form of noise spectrum through a 1-loop renormalization argument. For this choice, the SAM field theory is renormalizable to one loop. We comment on the suitability of this model for describing the non-linear regime of the CDM power spectrum and its utility as a relatively simple approach to cosmological clustering.

  12. A novel application of theory refinement to student modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Baffes, P.T.; Mooney, R.J.

    1996-12-31

    Theory refinement systems developed in machine learning automatically modify a knowledge base to render it consistent with a set of classified training examples. We illustrate a novel application of these techniques to the problem of constructing a student model for an intelligent tutoring system (ITS). Our approach is implemented in an ITS authoring system called ASSERT which uses theory refinement to introduce errors into an initially correct knowledge base so that it models incorrect student behavior. The efficacy of the approach has been demonstrated by evaluating a tutor developed with ASSERT with 75 students tested on a classification task covering concepts from an introductory course on the C{sup ++} programming language. The system produced reasonably accurate models and students who received feedback based on these models performed significantly better on a post test than students who received simple reteaching.

  13. On matrix model formulations of noncommutative Yang-Mills theories

    SciTech Connect

    Azeyanagi, Tatsuo; Hirata, Tomoyoshi; Hanada, Masanori

    2008-11-15

    We study the stability of noncommutative spaces in matrix models and discuss the continuum limit which leads to the noncommutative Yang-Mills theories. It turns out that most noncommutative spaces in bosonic models are unstable. This indicates perturbative instability of fuzzy R{sup D} pointed out by Van Raamsdonk and Armoni et al. persists to nonperturbative level in these cases. In this sense, these bosonic noncommutative Yang-Mills theories are not well-defined, or at least their matrix model formulations studied in this paper do not work. We also show that noncommutative backgrounds are stable in a supersymmetric matrix model deformed by a cubic Myers term, though the deformation itself breaks supersymmetry.

  14. Reconstructing constructivism: Causal models, Bayesian learning mechanisms and the theory theory

    PubMed Central

    Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M.

    2012-01-01

    We propose a new version of the “theory theory” grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework theories. We outline the new theoretical ideas, explain the computational framework in an intuitive and non-technical way, and review an extensive but relatively recent body of empirical results that supports these ideas. These include new studies of the mechanisms of learning. Children infer causal structure from statistical information, through their own actions on the world and through observations of the actions of others. Studies demonstrate these learning mechanisms in children from 16 months to 4 years old and include research on causal statistical learning, informal experimentation through play, and imitation and informal pedagogy. They also include studies of the variability and progressive character of intuitive theory change, particularly theory of mind. These studies investigate both the physical and psychological and social domains. We conclude with suggestions for further collaborative projects between developmental and computational cognitive scientists. PMID:22582739

  15. Husain-Kuchar Model as a Constrained BF Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montesinos, Merced; Velázquez, Mercedes

    2009-12-01

    The Husain-Kuchar theory is a four-dimensional background-independent model that has long been viewed as a useful model for addressing several conceptual and technical problems appearing in the quantization of general relativity mainly in the loop quantum gravity approach. The model was defined at Lagrangian level in terms of a su(2)-valued connection one-form A coupled through its curvature to a su(2)-valued one-form field e. We address here the problem of writing a Lagrangian formulation for the Husain-Kuchar model as a constrained BF theory motivated by the fact that spin foam models for quantum gravity are related to action principles of the BF type. The Lagrangian action principle for the Husain-Kuchar model reported here differs from a previous one found by Barbero et al. in that this description involves a single constrained BF theory rather than two interacting BF theories. It is, essentially, the Plebański action with the condition on the trace of the Lagrange multipliers removed. Moreover, it can be stated that the relationship between our BF-like action and the original one for the Husain-Kuchar model is the same relationship that exists between the Plebański action and the self-dual Palatini action for complex general relativity, first because the solution to the constraint on the two-forms ∑i coming from the BF-like action leads to the Husain-Kuchar action, and second because the Hamiltonian analysis of the Husain-Kuchar model is straightforward starting from the BF-like action principle.

  16. Chaos and order in non-integrable model field theories

    SciTech Connect

    Campbell, D.K.; Peyrard, M.

    1989-01-01

    We illustrate the presence of chaos and order in non-integrable, classical field theories, which we view as many-degree-of-freedom Hamiltonian nonlinear dynamical systems. For definiteness, we focus on the {chi}{sup 4} theory and compare and contrast it with the celebrated integrable sine-Gordon equation. We introduce and investigate two specific problems: the interactions of solitary kink''-like waves in non-integrable theories; and the existence of stable breather'' solutions -- spatially-localized, time-periodic nonlinear waves -- in the {chi}{sup 4} theory. For the former problem we review the rather well developed understanding, based on a combination of computational simulations and heuristic analytic models, of the presence of a sequence of resonances in the kink-antikink interactions as a function of the relative velocity of the interaction. For the latter problem we discuss first the case of the continuum {chi}{sup 4} theory. We discuss the multiple-scale asymptotic perturbation theory arguments which first suggested the existence of {chi}{sup 4} breathers, then the subsequent discovery of terms beyond-all-orders'' in the perturbation expansion which destroy the putative breather, and finally, the recent rigorous proofs of the non-existence of breathers in the continuum theory. We then present some very recent numerical results on the existence of breathers in discrete {chi}{sup 4} theories which show an intricate interweaving of stable and unstable breather solutions on finite discrete lattices. We develop a heuristic theoretical explanation of the regions of stability and instability.

  17. Theory and application of experimental model analysis in earthquake engineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moncarz, P. D.

    The feasibility and limitations of small-scale model studies in earthquake engineering research and practice is considered with emphasis on dynamic modeling theory, a study of the mechanical properties of model materials, the development of suitable model construction techniques and an evaluation of the accuracy of prototype response prediction through model case studies on components and simple steel and reinforced concrete structures. It is demonstrated that model analysis can be used in many cases to obtain quantitative information on the seismic behavior of complex structures which cannot be analyzed confidently by conventional techniques. Methodologies for model testing and response evaluation are developed in the project and applications of model analysis in seismic response studies on various types of civil engineering structures (buildings, bridges, dams, etc.) are evaluated.

  18. Assessment of the water and energy budget simulation of three land surface models: CLM4.5, CoLM2014, and CoLM2005

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, C.; Lu, H.; Wen, X.

    2015-12-01

    Land surface model (LSM), which simulates energy, water and momentum exchanges between land and atmosphere, is an important component of Earth System Models (ESM). As shown in CMIP5, different ESMs usually use different LSMs and represent various land surface status. In order to select a land surface model which could be embedded into the ESM developed in Tsinghua University, we firstly evaluate the performance of three LSMs: Community Land Model (CLM4.5) and two different versions of Common Land Model (CoLM2005 and CoLM2014). All of three models were driven by CRUNCEP data and simulation results from 1980 to 2010 were used in this study. Diagnostic data provided by NCAR, global latent and sensible heat flux map estimated by Jung, net radiation from SRB, and in situ observation collected from FluxNet were used as reference data. Two variables, surface runoff and snow depth, were used for evaluating the model performance in water budget simulation, while three variables including net radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat were used for assessing energy budget simulation. For 30 years averaged runoff, global average value of Colm2014 is 0.44mm/day and close to the diagnostic value of 0.75 mm/day, while that of Colm2005 is 0.44mm/day and that of CLM is 0.20mm/day. For snow depth simulation, three models all have overestimation in the Northern Hemisphere and underestimation in the Southern Hemisphere compare to diagnostic data. For 30 years energy budget simulation, at global scale, CoLM2005 performs best in latent heat estimation, CoLM2014 performs best in sensible heat simulation, and CoLM2005 and CoLM2014 make similar performance in net radiation estimation but is still better than CLM. At regional and local scale, comparing to the four years average of flux tower observation, RMSE of CoLM2005 is the smallest for latent heat (9.717 W/m2) , and for sensible heat simulation, RMSE of CoLM2005 (13.048 W/m2) is slightly greater than CLM(10.767 W/m2) but still better

  19. A model of resurgence based on behavioral momentum theory.

    PubMed

    Shahan, Timothy A; Sweeney, Mary M

    2011-01-01

    Resurgence is the reappearance of an extinguished behavior when an alternative behavior reinforced during extinction is subsequently placed on extinction. Resurgence is of particular interest because it may be a source of relapse to problem behavior following treatments involving alternative reinforcement. In this article we develop a quantitative model of resurgence based on the augmented model of extinction provided by behavioral momentum theory. The model suggests that alternative reinforcement during extinction of a target response acts as both an additional source of disruption during extinction and as a source of reinforcement in the context that increases the future strength of the target response. The model does a good job accounting for existing data in the resurgence literature and makes novel and testable predictions. Thus, the model appears to provide a framework for understanding resurgence and serves to integrate the phenomenon into the existing theoretical account of persistence provided by behavioral momentum theory. In addition, we discuss some potential implications of the model for further development of behavioral momentum theory. PMID:21541118

  20. A model of resurgence based on behavioral momentum theory.

    PubMed

    Shahan, Timothy A; Sweeney, Mary M

    2011-01-01

    Resurgence is the reappearance of an extinguished behavior when an alternative behavior reinforced during extinction is subsequently placed on extinction. Resurgence is of particular interest because it may be a source of relapse to problem behavior following treatments involving alternative reinforcement. In this article we develop a quantitative model of resurgence based on the augmented model of extinction provided by behavioral momentum theory. The model suggests that alternative reinforcement during extinction of a target response acts as both an additional source of disruption during extinction and as a source of reinforcement in the context that increases the future strength of the target response. The model does a good job accounting for existing data in the resurgence literature and makes novel and testable predictions. Thus, the model appears to provide a framework for understanding resurgence and serves to integrate the phenomenon into the existing theoretical account of persistence provided by behavioral momentum theory. In addition, we discuss some potential implications of the model for further development of behavioral momentum theory.

  1. Looking for a Matrix model for ABJM theory

    SciTech Connect

    Mohammed, Asadig; Murugan, Jeff; Nastase, Horatiu

    2010-10-15

    Encouraged by the recent construction of fuzzy sphere solutions in the Aharony, Bergman, Jafferis, and Maldacena (ABJM) theory, we re-analyze the latter from the perspective of a Matrix-like model. In particular, we argue that a vortex solution exhibits properties of a supergraviton, while a kink represents a 2-brane. Other solutions are also consistent with the Matrix-type interpretation. We study vortex scattering and compare with graviton scattering in the massive ABJM background, however our results are inconclusive. We speculate on how to extend our results to construct a Matrix theory of ABJM.

  2. Toward a utility theory foundation for health status index models.

    PubMed Central

    Torrance, G W

    1976-01-01

    The axioms of utility theory are restated in terms of health outcomes, and some additional assumptions, consistent with the assumptions implicit in health status index models, are adduced to develop a consistent theory of the utility of health states. On the basis of the axioms and specific assumptions, techniques for measuring the health utility functions of individuals are described, and it is shown how these axioms and assumptions may be used to determine the utility to the individual of health programs that will affect him in various ways. PMID:1025050

  3. Changes in water budgets and sediment yields from a hypothetical agricultural field as a function of landscape and management characteristics--A unit field modeling approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roth, Jason L.; Capel, Paul D.

    2012-01-01

    Crop agriculture occupies 13 percent of the conterminous United States. Agricultural management practices, such as crop and tillage types, affect the hydrologic flow paths through the landscape. Some agricultural practices, such as drainage and irrigation, create entirely new hydrologic flow paths upon the landscapes where they are implemented. These hydrologic changes can affect the magnitude and partitioning of water budgets and sediment erosion. Given the wide degree of variability amongst agricultural settings, changes in the magnitudes of hydrologic flow paths and sediment erosion induced by agricultural management practices commonly are difficult to characterize, quantify, and compare using only field observations. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to simulate two landscape characteristics (slope and soil texture) and three agricultural management practices (land cover/crop type, tillage type, and selected agricultural land management practices) to evaluate their effects on the water budgets of and sediment yield from agricultural lands. An array of sixty-eight 60-year simulations were run, each representing a distinct natural or agricultural scenario with various slopes, soil textures, crop or land cover types, tillage types, and select agricultural management practices on an isolated 16.2-hectare field. Simulations were made to represent two common agricultural climate regimes: arid with sprinkler irrigation and humid. These climate regimes were constructed with actual climate and irrigation data. The results of these simulations demonstrate the magnitudes of potential changes in water budgets and sediment yields from lands as a result of landscape characteristics and agricultural practices adopted on them. These simulations showed that variations in landscape characteristics, such as slope and soil type, had appreciable effects on water budgets and sediment yields. As slopes increased, sediment yields increased in both the arid and

  4. Hydrology and sediment budget of Los Laureles Canyon, Tijuana, MX: Modelling channel, gully, and rill erosion with 3D photo-reconstruction, CONCEPTS, and AnnAGNPS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taniguchi, Kristine; Gudiño, Napoleon; Biggs, Trent; Castillo, Carlos; Langendoen, Eddy; Bingner, Ron; Taguas, Encarnación; Liden, Douglas; Yuan, Yongping

    2015-04-01

    Several watersheds cross the US-Mexico boundary, resulting in trans-boundary environmental problems. Erosion in Tijuana, Mexico, increases the rate of sediment deposition in the Tijuana Estuary in the United States, altering the structure and function of the ecosystem. The well-being of residents in Tijuana is compromised by damage to infrastructure and homes built adjacent to stream channels, gully formation in dirt roads, and deposition of trash. We aim to understand the dominant source of sediment contributing to the sediment budget of the watershed (channel, gully, or rill erosion), where the hotspots of erosion are located, and what the impact of future planned and unplanned land use changes and Best Management Practices (BMPs) will be on sediment and storm flow. We will be using a mix of field methods, including 3D photo-reconstruction of stream channels, with two models, CONCEPTS and AnnAGNPS to constrain estimates of the sediment budget and impacts of land use change. Our research provides an example of how 3D photo-reconstruction and Structure from Motion (SfM) can be used to model channel evolution.

  5. sigma model approach to the heterotic string theory

    SciTech Connect

    Sen, A.

    1985-09-01

    Relation between the equations of motion for the massless fields in the heterotic string theory, and the conformal invariance of the sigma model describing the propagation of the heterotic string in arbitrary background massless fields is discussed. It is emphasized that this sigma model contains complete information about the string theory. Finally, we discuss the extension of the Hull-Witten proof of local gauge and Lorentz invariance of the sigma-model to higher order in ..cap alpha..', and the modification of the transformation laws of the antisymmetric tensor field under these symmetries. Presence of anomaly in the naive N = 1/2 supersymmetry transformation is also pointed out in this context. 12 refs.

  6. Finite Element and Plate Theory Modeling of Acoustic Emission Waveforms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prosser, W. H.; Hamstad, M. A.; Gary, J.; OGallagher, A.

    1998-01-01

    A comparison was made between two approaches to predict acoustic emission waveforms in thin plates. A normal mode solution method for Mindlin plate theory was used to predict the response of the flexural plate mode to a point source, step-function load, applied on the plate surface. The second approach used a dynamic finite element method to model the problem using equations of motion based on exact linear elasticity. Calculations were made using properties for both isotropic (aluminum) and anisotropic (unidirectional graphite/epoxy composite) materials. For simulations of anisotropic plates, propagation along multiple directions was evaluated. In general, agreement between the two theoretical approaches was good. Discrepancies in the waveforms at longer times were caused by differences in reflections from the lateral plate boundaries. These differences resulted from the fact that the two methods used different boundary conditions. At shorter times in the signals, before reflections, the slight discrepancies in the waveforms were attributed to limitations of Mindlin plate theory, which is an approximate plate theory. The advantages of the finite element method are that it used the exact linear elasticity solutions, and that it can be used to model real source conditions and complicated, finite specimen geometries as well as thick plates. These advantages come at a cost of increased computational difficulty, requiring lengthy calculations on workstations or supercomputers. The Mindlin plate theory solutions, meanwhile, can be quickly generated on personal computers. Specimens with finite geometry can also be modeled. However, only limited simple geometries such as circular or rectangular plates can easily be accommodated with the normal mode solution technique. Likewise, very limited source configurations can be modeled and plate theory is applicable only to thin plates.

  7. Logic models: a useful way to study theories of evaluation practice?

    PubMed

    Miller, Robin Lin

    2013-06-01

    This paper comments on the papers in the special volume on logic modeling and evaluation theory. Logic modeling offers a potentially useful approach to learning about the assumptions, activities, and consequences described in an evaluation theory and may facilitate comparative analysis of evaluation theories. However, logic models are imperfect vehicles for depicting the contingent and dynamic nature of evaluation theories. Alternative approaches to studying theories are necessary to capture the essence of theories as they may work in actual practice.

  8. Forewarning model for water pollution risk based on Bayes theory.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Jun; Jin, Juliang; Guo, Qizhong; Chen, Yaqian; Lu, Mengxiong; Tinoco, Luis

    2014-02-01

    In order to reduce the losses by water pollution, forewarning model for water pollution risk based on Bayes theory was studied. This model is built upon risk indexes in complex systems, proceeding from the whole structure and its components. In this study, the principal components analysis is used to screen out index systems. Hydrological model is employed to simulate index value according to the prediction principle. Bayes theory is adopted to obtain posterior distribution by prior distribution with sample information which can make samples' features preferably reflect and represent the totals to some extent. Forewarning level is judged on the maximum probability rule, and then local conditions for proposing management strategies that will have the effect of transforming heavy warnings to a lesser degree. This study takes Taihu Basin as an example. After forewarning model application and vertification for water pollution risk from 2000 to 2009 between the actual and simulated data, forewarning level in 2010 is given as a severe warning, which is well coincide with logistic curve. It is shown that the model is rigorous in theory with flexible method, reasonable in result with simple structure, and it has strong logic superiority and regional adaptability, providing a new way for warning water pollution risk.

  9. Matrix models and stochastic growth in Donaldson-Thomas theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szabo, Richard J.; Tierz, Miguel

    2012-10-01

    We show that the partition functions which enumerate Donaldson-Thomas invariants of local toric Calabi-Yau threefolds without compact divisors can be expressed in terms of specializations of the Schur measure. We also discuss the relevance of the Hall-Littlewood and Jack measures in the context of BPS state counting and study the partition functions at arbitrary points of the Kähler moduli space. This rewriting in terms of symmetric functions leads to a unitary one-matrix model representation for Donaldson-Thomas theory. We describe explicitly how this result is related to the unitary matrix model description of Chern-Simons gauge theory. This representation is used to show that the generating functions for Donaldson-Thomas invariants are related to tau-functions of the integrable Toda and Toeplitz lattice hierarchies. The matrix model also leads to an interpretation of Donaldson-Thomas theory in terms of non-intersecting paths in the lock-step model of vicious walkers. We further show that these generating functions can be interpreted as normalization constants of a corner growth/last-passage stochastic model.

  10. Nonequilibrium Dynamical Mean-Field Theory for Bosonic Lattice Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strand, Hugo U. R.; Eckstein, Martin; Werner, Philipp

    2015-01-01

    We develop the nonequilibrium extension of bosonic dynamical mean-field theory and a Nambu real-time strong-coupling perturbative impurity solver. In contrast to Gutzwiller mean-field theory and strong-coupling perturbative approaches, nonequilibrium bosonic dynamical mean-field theory captures not only dynamical transitions but also damping and thermalization effects at finite temperature. We apply the formalism to quenches in the Bose-Hubbard model, starting from both the normal and the Bose-condensed phases. Depending on the parameter regime, one observes qualitatively different dynamical properties, such as rapid thermalization, trapping in metastable superfluid or normal states, as well as long-lived or strongly damped amplitude oscillations. We summarize our results in nonequilibrium "phase diagrams" that map out the different dynamical regimes.

  11. 40 CFR 52.244 - Motor vehicle emissions budgets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... attainment SIPs will apply for transportation conformity purposes only until new budgets based on updated... conformity purposes only until new budgets based on updated planning data and models have been submitted and... maintenance SIPs will apply for transportation conformity purposes only until new budgets based on...

  12. 40 CFR 52.244 - Motor vehicle emissions budgets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... attainment SIPs will apply for transportation conformity purposes only until new budgets based on updated... conformity purposes only until new budgets based on updated planning data and models have been submitted and... maintenance SIPs will apply for transportation conformity purposes only until new budgets based on...

  13. 40 CFR 52.244 - Motor vehicle emissions budgets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... attainment SIPs will apply for transportation conformity purposes only until new budgets based on updated... conformity purposes only until new budgets based on updated planning data and models have been submitted and... maintenance SIPs will apply for transportation conformity purposes only until new budgets based on...

  14. Should the model for risk-informed regulation be game theory rather than decision theory?

    PubMed

    Bier, Vicki M; Lin, Shi-Woei

    2013-02-01

    deception), to identify optimal regulatory strategies. Therefore, we believe that the types of regulatory interactions analyzed in this article are better modeled using game theory rather than decision theory. In particular, the goals of this article are to review the relevant literature in game theory and regulatory economics (to stimulate interest in this area among risk analysts), and to present illustrative results showing how the application of game theory can provide useful insights into the theory and practice of risk-informed regulation.

  15. Gauge invariant perturbation theory and non-critical string models of Yang-Mills theories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lugo, Adrián R.; Sturla, Mauricio B.

    2010-04-01

    We carry out a gauge invariant analysis of certain perturbations of D - 2-branes solutions of low energy string theories. We get generically a system of second order coupled differential equations, and show that only in very particular cases it is possible to reduce it to just one differential equation. Later, we apply it to a multi-parameter, generically singular family of constant dilaton solutions of non-critical string theories in D dimensions, a generalization of that recently found in arXiv:0709.0471 [hep-th]. According to arguments coming from the holographic gauge theory-gravity correspondence, and at least in some region of the parameters space, we obtain glue-ball spectra of Yang-Mills theories in diverse dimensions, putting special emphasis in the scalar metric perturbations not considered previously in the literature in the non critical setup. We compare our numerical results to those studied previously and to lattice results, finding qualitative and in some cases, tuning properly the parameters, quantitative agreement. These results seem to show some kind of universality of the models, as well as an irrelevance of the singular character of the solutions. We also develop the analysis for the T-dual, non trivial dilaton family of solutions, showing perfect agreement between them.

  16. Attachment theory and theory of planned behavior: an integrative model predicting underage drinking.

    PubMed

    Lac, Andrew; Crano, William D; Berger, Dale E; Alvaro, Eusebio M

    2013-08-01

    Research indicates that peer and maternal bonds play important but sometimes contrasting roles in the outcomes of children. Less is known about attachment bonds to these 2 reference groups in young adults. Using a sample of 351 participants (18 to 20 years of age), the research integrated two theoretical traditions: attachment theory and theory of planned behavior (TPB). The predictive contribution of both theories was examined in the context of underage adult alcohol use. Using full structural equation modeling, results substantiated the hypotheses that secure peer attachment positively predicted norms and behavioral control toward alcohol, but secure maternal attachment inversely predicted attitudes and behavioral control toward alcohol. Alcohol attitudes, norms, and behavioral control each uniquely explained alcohol intentions, which anticipated an increase in alcohol behavior 1 month later. The hypothesized processes were statistically corroborated by tests of indirect and total effects. These findings support recommendations for programs designed to curtail risky levels of underage drinking using the tenets of attachment theory and TPB. PMID:23127300

  17. Finite hedging in field theory models of interest rates.

    PubMed

    Baaquie, Belal E; Srikant, Marakani

    2004-03-01

    We use path integrals to calculate hedge parameters and efficacy of hedging in a quantum field theory generalization of the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton [Robert Jarrow, David Heath, and Andrew Morton, Econometrica 60, 77 (1992)] term structure model, which parsimoniously describes the evolution of imperfectly correlated forward rates. We calculate, within the model specification, the effectiveness of hedging over finite periods of time, and obtain the limiting case of instantaneous hedging. We use empirical estimates for the parameters of the model to show that a low-dimensional hedge portfolio is quite effective.

  18. WLWL scattering in Higgsless models: Identifying better effective theories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belyaev, Alexander S.; Chivukula, R. Sekhar; Christensen, Neil D.; He, Hong-Jian; Kurachi, Masafumi; Simmons, Elizabeth H.; Tanabashi, Masaharu

    2009-09-01

    The three-site model has been offered as a benchmark for studying the collider phenomenology of Higgsless models. In this paper we analyze how well the three-site model performs as a general exemplar of Higgsless models in describing WLWL scattering, and which modifications can make it more representative. We employ general sum rules relating the masses and couplings of the Kaluza-Klein modes of the gauge fields in continuum and deconstructed Higgsless models as a way to compare the different theories. We show that the size of the four-point vertex for the (unphysical) Nambu-Goldstone modes and the degree to which the sum rules are saturated by contributions from the lowest-lying Kaluza-Klein resonances both provide good measures of the extent to which a highly deconstructed theory can accurately describe the low-energy physics of a continuum 5D Higgsless model. After comparing the three-site model to flat and warped continuum models, we analyze extensions of the three-site model to a longer open linear moose with an additional U(1) group and to a ring (“breaking electroweak symmetry strongly” or “hidden local symmetry”) model with three sites and three links. Both cases may be readily analyzed in the framework of the general sum rules. We demonstrate that WLWL scattering in the ring model can very closely approximate scattering in the continuum models, provided that the hidden local symmetry parameter a is chosen to mimic ρ-meson dominance of ππ scattering in QCD. The hadron and lepton collider phenomenology of both extended models is briefly discussed, with a focus on the complementary information to be gained from precision measurements of the Z' line shape and ZWW coupling at a high-energy lepton collider.

  19. Budgeting Approaches in Community Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Palmer, James C.

    2014-01-01

    Several budgeting approaches have been initiated as alternatives to the traditional, incremental process. These include formula budgeting; zero-base budgeting; planning, programming, and budgeting systems; and responsibility center budgeting. Each is premised on assumptions about how organizations might best make resource allocation decisions.…

  20. The interconnection of wet and dry deposition and the alteration of deposition budgets due to incorporation of new process understanding in regional models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dennis, R. L.; Bash, J. O.; Foley, K. M.; Gilliam, R.; Pinder, R. W.

    2013-12-01

    Deposition is affected by the chemical and physical processes represented in the regional models as well as source strength. The overall production and loss budget (wet and dry deposition) is dynamically connected and adjusts internally to changes in process representation. In addition, the scrubbing of pollutants from the atmosphere by precipitation is one of several processes that remove pollutants, creating a coupling with the atmospheric aqueous and gas phase chemistry that can influence wet deposition rates in a nonlinear manner. We explore through model sensitivities with the regional Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model the influence on wet and dry deposition, and the overall continental nitrogen budget, of changes in three process representations in the model: (1) incorporation of lightning generated NO, (2) improved representation of convective precipitation, and (3) replacement of the typical unidirectional dry deposition of NH3 with a state of the science representation of NH3 bi-directional air-surface exchange. Results of the sensitivity studies will be presented. (1) Incorporation of lightning generated NO significantly reduces a negative bias in summer wet nitrate deposition, but is sensitive to the choice of convective parameterization. (2) Use of a less active trigger of convective precipitation in the WRF meteorological model to reduce summertime precipitation over prediction bias reduces the generation of NO from lightning. It also reduces the wet deposition of nitrate and increases the dry deposition of oxidized nitrogen, as well as changing (reducing) the surface level exposure to ozone. Improvements in the convective precipitation processes also result in more non-precipitating clouds leading to an increase in SO4 production through the aqueous pathway resulting in improvements in summertime SO4 ambient aerosol estimates.(3) Incorporation of state of the science ammonia bi-directional air surface exchange affects both the dry

  1. A water-budget model and assessment of groundwater recharge for the Island of Hawaiʻi

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Engott, John A.

    2011-01-01

    Concern surrounding increasing demand for groundwater on the Island of Hawaiʻi, caused by a growing population and an increasing reliance on groundwater as a source for municipal and private water systems, has prompted a study of groundwater recharge on the island using the most current data and accepted methods. For this study, a daily water-budget model for the entire Island of Hawaiʻi was developed and used to estimate mean recharge for various land-cover and rainfall conditions, and a submodel for the Kona area was developed and used to estimate historical groundwater recharge in the Kona area during the period 1984–2008. Estimated mean annual recharge on the Island of Hawaiʻi is 6,594 million gallons per day, which is about 49 percent of mean annual rainfall. Recharge is highest on the windward slopes of Mauna Loa, below the tradewind inversion, and lowest on the leeward slopes of Kohala and Mauna Kea. Local recharge maxima also occur on (1) windward Kohala, with the exception of the northern tip, (2) windward Mauna Kea below the tradewind inversion, (3) windward Kīlauea, (4) the middle elevations of southeastern Mauna Loa, and (5) the lower-middle elevations of leeward Mauna Loa and southwestern Hualālai, in the Kona area. Local recharge minima also occur on (1) Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa, above the tradewind inversion, (2) the northern tip of Kohala, (3) leeward Kīlauea, (4) the southern tip of Mauna Loa, and (5) the northwestern slopes of Mauna Loa and Hualālai. In 18 of the 24 aquifer systems on the island, estimated mean annual recharge for baseline conditions was higher than the recharge estimates used in the 2008 State of Hawaiʻi Water Resource Protection Plan (2008 WRPP). Baseline conditions for this study were 2008 land cover and mean annual rainfall from the period 1916–1983. Estimates of recharge for the Māhukona, Waimea, and Hāwī aquifer systems, however, were between 29 and 38 percent lower than the 2008 WRPP estimates, mainly because

  2. Integrating field measurements, a geomorphological map and stochastic modelling to estimate the spatially distributed rockfall sediment budget of the Upper Kaunertal, Austrian Central Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heckmann, Tobias; Hilger, Ludwig; Vehling, Lucas; Becht, Michael

    2016-05-01

    The estimation of catchment-scale rockfall rates relies on the regionalisation of local measurements. Here, we propose a new framework for such a regionalisation by the example of a case study in the Upper Kaunertal, Austrian Central Alps (62.5 km2). Measurements of rockfall deposition during 12 months onto six collector nets within the study area were combined with published mean annual rates from the literature, and a probability density function was fitted to these data. A numerical model involving a random walk routing scheme and a one-parameter friction model was used to simulate rockfall trajectories, starting from potential rockfall source areas that were delineated from a digital elevation model. Rockfall rates sampled from the fitted probability density function were assigned to these trajectories in order to model the spatial distribution and to estimate the amount of rockfall deposition. By recording all trajectories as edges of a network of raster cells, and by aggregating the latter to landforms (or landform types) as delineated in a geomorphological map of the study area, rockfall sediment flux from sources to different landforms could be quantified. Specifically, the geomorphic coupling of rockfall sources to storage landforms and the glacial and fluvial sediment cascade was investigated using this network model. The total rockfall contribution to the sediment budget of the Upper Kaunertal is estimated at c. 8000 Mg yr- 1, 16.5% of which is delivered to the glaciers, and hence to the proglacial zone. The network approach is favourable, for example because multiple scenarios (involving different probability density functions) can be calculated on the basis of the same set of trajectories, and because deposits can be back-linked to their respective sources. While the methodological framework constitutes the main aim of our paper, we also discuss how the estimation of the budget can be improved on the basis of spatially distributed production rates.

  3. Colorado Children's Budget 2005

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Colorado Children's Campaign, 2005

    2005-01-01

    The Children's Budget is a comprehensive report on funding for children's services in Colorado. This report provides a six- year funding history for more than 50 programs funded with state, local, and federal dollars. The Colorado Children's Budget analyzes reductions in programs and services during the economic downturn. The data in the…

  4. Reading Institutional Budgets.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chabot, Barry

    2001-01-01

    Prepares two tables to illustrate how it is helpful to place worries about much smaller sums in the context of Miami University's overall academic budget; One table summarizes the academic budgets for every department during the 1997-98 academic year and a second contains the income-expense ratios for all Oxford departments over a five-year…

  5. Budgeting Based on Results

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooper, Kelt L.

    2011-01-01

    Every program in a school or school district has, or once had, a purpose. The purpose was most likely promoted, argued and debated among school constituencies--parents, teachers, administrators and school board members--before it was eventually approved. This process occurs year after year, budget after budget. In itself, this is not necessarily a…

  6. Colorado Children's Budget 2010

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Colorado Children's Campaign, 2010

    2010-01-01

    The "Children's Budget 2010" is intended to be a resource guide for policymakers and advocates who are interested in better understanding how Colorado funds children's programs and services. It attempts to clarify often confusing budget information and describe where the state's investment trends are and where those trends will lead the state if…

  7. Colorado Children's Budget 2013

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buck, Beverly; Baker, Robin

    2013-01-01

    The "Colorado Children's Budget" presents and analyzes investments and spending trends during the past five state fiscal years on services that benefit children. The "Children's Budget" focuses mainly on state investment and spending, with some analysis of federal investments and spending to provide broader context of state…

  8. PROGRAM BUDGETING FOR EDUCATION.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    HIRSCH, WERNER Z.

    THE APPLICATION OF PROGRAM BUDGETING TO EDUCATION IS RECOMMENDED. A NATIONAL-LEVEL PROGRAM BUDGET EXAMPLE IS PRESENTED, WITH SUGGESTIONS FOR OBTAINING MORE EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT OF EDUCATION. FINANCING OF EDUCATION IN THE UNITED STATES IS CURRENTLY UNDERTAKEN BY MORE THAN 40 AGENCIES OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, 50 STATE GOVERNMENTS, AND MORE THAN…

  9. Circuit theory and model-based inference for landscape connectivity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2013-01-01

    Circuit theory has seen extensive recent use in the field of ecology, where it is often applied to study functional connectivity. The landscape is typically represented by a network of nodes and resistors, with the resistance between nodes a function of landscape characteristics. The effective distance between two locations on a landscape is represented by the resistance distance between the nodes in the network. Circuit theory has been applied to many other scientific fields for exploratory analyses, but parametric models for circuits are not common in the scientific literature. To model circuits explicitly, we demonstrate a link between Gaussian Markov random fields and contemporary circuit theory using a covariance structure that induces the necessary resistance distance. This provides a parametric model for second-order observations from such a system. In the landscape ecology setting, the proposed model provides a simple framework where inference can be obtained for effects that landscape features have on functional connectivity. We illustrate the approach through a landscape genetics study linking gene flow in alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra) to the underlying landscape.

  10. MJO theory in relation to comprehensive models and observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobel, A. H.

    2015-12-01

    I will describe some recent thinking on the fundamental physics of the MJO. Much recent work portrays the MJO as some form of "moisture mode" - meaning that the prognostic variable of greatest importance is moisture or a conserved variable closely related to it, such as moist static energy or moist entropy - and I will argue for this line of thinking, presenting evidence in favor of it, as well as unresolved problems. I will focus on the relationship between theory, numerical modeling at a range of scales, and observations. We have reached a new phase in the study of the MJO: the phenomenon has been described in great detail from an observational point of view, and perhaps even more importantly, the best numerical models can now simulate it well. I will argue that in this situation, theory is most compelling when its core assumptions can be specifically defended using both observations and comprehensive numerical models. I will make connections between the moisture mode view and results from several different types of numerical models: numerical weather prediction models, global climate models, and small-domain high-resolution cloud resolving models.

  11. Symmetry Breaking, Unification, and Theories Beyond the Standard Model

    SciTech Connect

    Nomura, Yasunori

    2009-07-31

    A model was constructed in which the supersymmetric fine-tuning problem is solved without extending the Higgs sector at the weak scale. We have demonstrated that the model can avoid all the phenomenological constraints, while avoiding excessive fine-tuning. We have also studied implications of the model on dark matter physics and collider physics. I have proposed in an extremely simple construction for models of gauge mediation. We found that the {mu} problem can be simply and elegantly solved in a class of models where the Higgs fields couple directly to the supersymmetry breaking sector. We proposed a new way of addressing the flavor problem of supersymmetric theories. We have proposed a new framework of constructing theories of grand unification. We constructed a simple and elegant model of dark matter which explains excess flux of electrons/positrons. We constructed a model of dark energy in which evolving quintessence-type dark energy is naturally obtained. We studied if we can find evidence of the multiverse.

  12. Budget brief, 1981

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-01-01

    The FY DOE budge totals $12.6 billion in budget authority and $11.1 billion in budget outlays. The budget authority being requested consists of $10.3 billion in new authority and a $2.3 billion reappropriation of expiring funds for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Areas covered in the Energy budget are: energy conservation; research, development, and applications; regulation and information; direct energy production; strategic energy production; and energy security reserve. Other areas include: general science, defense activities; departmental administration; and legislative proposal - spent fuel. Budget totals are compared for 1980 and 1981. A detailed discussion of the FY 1981 activities to be undertaken to carry out these activities is provided. (MCW)

  13. Multi-unit auctions with budget-constrained bidders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, Gagan Pratap

    assumptions, there always exist bidder-types who submit unequal bids in equilibrium, (2) the equilibrium is monotonic in the sense that bidders with higher valuations prefer more unequal splits of their budgets than bidders with lower valuations and the same budget-level. With a formal theory in place, I carry out a quantitative exercise, using data from the 1970 OCS auction. I show that the model is able to match many aspects of the data. (1) In the data, the number of tracts bidders submit bids on is positively correlated with budgets (an R2 of 0.84), even though this relationship is non-monotonic; my model is able to capture this non-monotonicity, while producing an R2 of 0.89 (2) In the data, the average number of bids per tract is 8.21; for the model, this number is 10.09. (3) Auction revenue in the data was 1.927 billion; the model produced a mean revenue of 1.944 billion.

  14. Quantifying the impacts of land surface schemes and dynamic vegetation on the model dependency of projected changes in surface energy and water budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Miao; Wang, Guiling; Chen, Haishan

    2016-03-01

    Assessing and quantifying the uncertainties in projected future changes of energy and water budgets over land surface are important steps toward improving our confidence in climate change projections. In this study, the contribution of land surface models to the inter-GCM variation of projected future changes in land surface energy and water fluxes are assessed based on output from 19 global climate models (GCMs) and offline Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) simulations driven by meteorological forcing from the 19 GCMs. Similar offline simulations using CLM4 with its dynamic vegetation submodel are also conducted to investigate how dynamic vegetation feedback, a process that is being added to more earth system models, may amplify or moderate the intermodel variations of projected future changes. Projected changes are quantified as the difference between the 2081-2100 period from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) future experiment and the 1981-2000 period from the historical simulation. Under RCP8.5, projected changes in surface water and heat fluxes show a high degree of model dependency across the globe. Although precipitation is very likely to increase in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, a high degree of model-related uncertainty exists for evapotranspiration, soil water content, and surface runoff, suggesting discrepancy among land surface models (LSMs) in simulating the surface hydrological processes and snow-related processes. Large model-related uncertainties for the surface water budget also exist in the Tropics including southeastern South America and Central Africa. These uncertainties would be reduced in the hypothetical scenario of a single near-perfect land surface model being used across all GCMs, suggesting the potential to reduce uncertainties through the use of more consistent approaches toward land surface model development. Under such a scenario, the most significant reduction is likely to be seen in the

  15. Quantifying the impacts of land surface schemes and dynamic vegetation on the model dependency of projected changes in surface energy and water budgets

    DOE PAGES

    Yu, Miao; Wang, Guiling; Chen, Haishan

    2016-03-01

    Assessing and quantifying the uncertainties in projected future changes of energy and water budgets over land surface are important steps toward improving our confidence in climate change projections. In our study, the contribution of land surface models to the inter-GCM variation of projected future changes in land surface energy and water fluxes are assessed based on output from 19 global climate models (GCMs) and offline Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) simulations driven by meteorological forcing from the 19 GCMs. Similar offline simulations using CLM4 with its dynamic vegetation submodel are also conducted to investigate how dynamic vegetation feedback, amore » process that is being added to more earth system models, may amplify or moderate the intermodel variations of projected future changes. Projected changes are quantified as the difference between the 2081–2100 period from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) future experiment and the 1981–2000 period from the historical simulation. Under RCP8.5, projected changes in surface water and heat fluxes show a high degree of model dependency across the globe. Although precipitation is very likely to increase in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, a high degree of model-related uncertainty exists for evapotranspiration, soil water content, and surface runoff, suggesting discrepancy among land surface models (LSMs) in simulating the surface hydrological processes and snow-related processes. Large model-related uncertainties for the surface water budget also exist in the Tropics including southeastern South America and Central Africa. Moreover, these uncertainties would be reduced in the hypothetical scenario of a single near-perfect land surface model being used across all GCMs, suggesting the potential to reduce uncertainties through the use of more consistent approaches toward land surface model development. Under such a scenario, the most significant reduction is likely to

  16. Ranking streamflow model performance based on Information theory metrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinez, Gonzalo; Pachepsky, Yakov; Pan, Feng; Wagener, Thorsten; Nicholson, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    The accuracy-based model performance metrics not necessarily reflect the qualitative correspondence between simulated and measured streamflow time series. The objective of this work was to use the information theory-based metrics to see whether they can be used as complementary tool for hydrologic model evaluation and selection. We simulated 10-year streamflow time series in five watersheds located in Texas, North Carolina, Mississippi, and West Virginia. Eight model of different complexity were applied. The information-theory based metrics were obtained after representing the time series as strings of symbols where different symbols corresponded to different quantiles of the probability distribution of streamflow. The symbol alphabet was used. Three metrics were computed for those strings - mean information gain that measures the randomness of the signal, effective measure complexity that characterizes predictability and fluctuation complexity that characterizes the presence of a pattern in the signal. The observed streamflow time series has smaller information content and larger complexity metrics than the precipitation time series. Watersheds served as information filters and and streamflow time series were less random and more complex than the ones of precipitation. This is reflected the fact that the watershed acts as the information filter in the hydrologic conversion process from precipitation to streamflow. The Nash Sutcliffe efficiency metric increased as the complexity of models increased, but in many cases several model had this efficiency values not statistically significant from each other. In such cases, ranking models by the closeness of the information-theory based parameters in simulated and measured streamflow time series can provide an additional criterion for the evaluation of hydrologic model performance.

  17. A realistic model for quantum theory with a locality property

    SciTech Connect

    Eberhard, P.H.

    1987-04-01

    A model reproducing the predictions of relativistic quantum theory to any desired degree of accuracy is described in this paper. It involves quantities that are independent of the observer's knowledge, and therefore can be called real, and which are defined at each point in space, and therefore can be called local in a rudimentary sense. It involves faster-than-light, but not instantaneous, action at distance.

  18. Testing Transition State Theory on Kac-Zwanzig Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ariel, G.; vanden-Eijnden, E.

    2007-01-01

    A variant of the Kac-Zwanzig model is used to test the prediction of transition state theory (TST) and variational transition state theory (VTST). The model describes the evolution of a distinguished particle moving in a double-well external potential and coupled to N free particles through linear springs. While the Kac-Zwanzig model is deterministic, under appropriate choice of the model parameters the evolution of the distinguished particle can be approximated by a two-state Markov chain whose transition rate constants can be computed exactly in suitable limit. Here, these transition rate constants are compared with the predictions of TST and VTST. It is shown that the application of TST with a naive (albeit natural) choice of dividing surface leads to the wrong prediction of the transition rate constants. This is due to crossings of the dividing surface that do not correspond to actual transition events. However, optimizing over the dividing surface within VTST allows one to eliminate completely these spurious crossings, and therefore derive the correct transition rate constants for the model. The reasons why VTST is successful in this model are discussed, which allows one to speculate on the reliability of VTST in more complicated systems.

  19. Modelling mechanical characteristics of microbial biofilms by network theory

    PubMed Central

    Ehret, Alexander E.; Böl, Markus

    2013-01-01

    In this contribution, we present a constitutive model to describe the mechanical behaviour of microbial biofilms based on classical approaches in the continuum theory of polymer networks. Although the model is particularly developed for the well-studied biofilms formed by mucoid Pseudomonas aeruginosa strains, it could easily be adapted to other biofilms. The basic assumption behind the model is that the network of extracellular polymeric substances can be described as a superposition of worm-like chain networks, each connected by transient junctions of a certain lifetime. Several models that were applied to biofilms previously are included in the presented approach as special cases, and for small shear strains, the governing equations are those of four parallel Maxwell elements. Rheological data given in the literature are very adequately captured by the proposed model, and the simulated response for a series of compression tests at large strains is in good qualitative agreement with reported experimental behaviour. PMID:23034354

  20. The Standard Model as a 2T-Physics Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bars, I.

    2007-04-01

    New developments in 2T-physics, that connect 2T-physics field theory directly to the real world, are reported in this talk. An action is proposed in field theory in 4+2 dimensions which correctly reproduces the Standard Model (SM) in 3+1 dimensions (and no junk). Everything that is known to work in the SM still works in the emergent 3+1 theory, but some of the problems of the SM get resolved. The resolution is due to new restrictions on interactions inherited from 4+2 dimensions that lead to some interesting physics and new points of view not discussed before in 3+1 dimensions. In particular the strong CP violation problem is resolved without an axion, and the electro-weak symmetry breakdown that generates masses requires the participation of the dilaton, thus relating the electro-weak phase transition to other phase transitions (such as evolution of the universe, vacuum selection in string theory, etc.) that also require the participation of the dilaton. The underlying principle of 2T-physics is the local symmetry Sp(2,R) under which position and momentum become indistinguishable at any instant. This principle inevitably leads to deep consequences, one of which is the two-time structure of spacetime in which ordinary 1-time spacetime is embedded. The proposed action for the Standard Model in 4+2 dimensions follows from new gauge symmetries in field theory related to the fundamental principles of Sp(2,R). These gauge symmetries thin out the degrees of freedom from 4+2 to 3+1 dimensions without any Kaluza-Klein modes.

  1. Theories linguistiques, modeles informatiques, experimentation psycholinguistique (Linguistic Theories, Information-Processing Models, Psycholinguistic Experimentation)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dubois, Daniele

    1975-01-01

    Delineates and elaborates upon the underlying psychological postulates in linguistic and information-processing models, and shows the interdependence of psycholinguistics and linguistic analysis. (Text is in French.) (DB)

  2. Theory of spinodal decomposition in relaxational tricritical models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miguel, M. San; Gunton, J. D.; Dee, Gregory; Sahni, Paramdeep S.

    1981-03-01

    We present a theory for the late-stage spinodal decomposition for two relaxational tricritical models in which the order parameter is nonconserved and the subsidiary order parameter is either conserved or nonconserved. We find that for d-dimensional systems (for d>1) the characteristic domain size grows in proportion to t13 (Lifshitz-Slyozov) and t12 (Cahn-Allen-Chan), respectively, where t is the time. A discussion is also given for the growth mechanism of a one-dimensional model. Our analysis in general involves linearizing the dynamical equations of motion around a stationary, but unstable state, which describes coexisting phases.

  3. Time-dependent Gutzwiller theory for multiband Hubbard models.

    PubMed

    Oelsen, E v; Seibold, G; Bünemann, J

    2011-08-12

    Based on the variational Gutzwiller theory, we present a method for the computation of response functions for multiband Hubbard models with general local Coulomb interactions. The improvement over the conventional random-phase approximation is exemplified for an infinite-dimensional two-band Hubbard model where the incorporation of the local multiplet structure leads to a much larger sensitivity of ferromagnetism on the Hund coupling. Our method can be implemented into local-density approximation and Gutzwiller schemes and will therefore be an important tool for the computation of response functions for strongly correlated materials.

  4. How well do stomatal conductance models perform on closing plant carbon budgets? A test using seedlings grown under current and elevated air temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Way, D.; Oren, R.; Kim, H.; Katul, G. G.

    2011-12-01

    Future carbon and water fluxes within terrestrial ecosystems will be determined by how stomatal conductance (gs) responds to rising atmospheric CO2 and air temperatures. While both short- and long-term CO2 effects on gs have been repeatedly studied, there are few studies on how gs acclimates to higher air temperatures. Six gs models were parameterized using leaf gas exchange data from black spruce (Picea mariana) seedlings grown from seed at ambient (22/16 °C day/night) or elevated (30/24 °C) temperatures. Model performance was independently assessed by how well carbon gain from each model reproduced estimated carbon costs to close the seedlings' seasonal carbon budgets, an indicator of the model success at time scales commensurate with biomass changes. A model holding a constant intercellular to ambient CO2 concentration ratio and the Ball-Berry model (based on stomatal responses to relative humidity) could not close the carbon balance for either treatment, while a so-called Jarvis-Oren model (based on stomatal responses to vapor pressure deficit, D) and a model assuming a constant gs each closed the carbon balance for one temperature treatment. Two models, both based on gs responses to D, performed best overall, estimating carbon uptake within 10% of carbon costs for both treatments: the Leuning model (a semi-empirical model that links gs to photosynthetic rates) and a linear optimization model that maximizes carbon gain per unit water loss. Since gs responses in the linear optimization model are not a priori assumed, this approach may be advantageous in modeling gs responses to temperature, especially in future climates.

  5. Transfer effects between moral dilemmas: a causal model theory.

    PubMed

    Wiegmann, Alex; Waldmann, Michael R

    2014-04-01

    Evaluations of analogous situations are an important source for our moral intuitions. A puzzling recent set of findings in experiments exploring transfer effects between intuitions about moral dilemmas has demonstrated a striking asymmetry. Transfer often occurred with a specific ordering of moral dilemmas, but not when the sequence was reversed. In this article we present a new theory of transfer between moral intuitions that focuses on two components of moral dilemmas, namely their causal structure and their default evaluations. According to this theory, transfer effects are expected when the causal models underlying the considered dilemmas allow for a mapping of the highlighted aspect of the first scenario onto the causal structure of the second dilemma, and when the default evaluations of the two dilemmas substantially differ. The theory's key predictions for the occurrence and the direction of transfer effects between two moral dilemmas are tested in five experiments with various variants of moral dilemmas from different domains. A sixth experiment tests the predictions of the theory for how the target action in the moral dilemmas is represented.

  6. Wavenumber dependent investigation of the terrestrial infrared radiation budget with two versions of the LOWTRAN5 band model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Charlock, T. P.

    1984-01-01

    Two versions of the LOWTRAN5 radiance code are used in a study of the earth's clear sky infrared radiation budget in the interval 30 per cm (333.3 microns) to 3530 per cm (2.8 microns). One version uses 5 per cm resolution and temperature dependent molecular absorption coefficients, and the second uses 20 per cm resolution and temperature independent molecular absorption coefficients. Both versions compare well with Nimbus 3 IRIS spectra, with some discrepancies at particular wavenumber intervals. Up and downgoing fluxes, calculated as functions of latitude, are displayed for wavenumbers at which the principle absorbers are active. Most of the variation of the fluxes with latitude is found in the higher wavenumber intervals for both clear and cloudy skies. The main features of the wavenumber integrated cooling rates are explained with reference to calculations in more restricted wavenumber intervals. A tropical lower tropospheric cooling maximum is produced by water vapor continuum effects in the 760-1240 per cm window. A secondary upper tropospheric cooling maximum, with wide meridional extent, is produced by water vapor rotational lines between 30-430 per cm. Water vapor lines throughout the terrestrial infrared spectrum prevent the upflux maximum from coinciding with the surface temperature maximum.

  7. Who needs budgets?

    PubMed

    Hope, Jeremy; Fraser, Robin

    2003-02-01

    Budgeting, as most corporations practice it, should be abolished. That may sound radical, but doing so would further companies' long-running efforts to transform themselves into developed networks that can nimbly adjust to market conditions. Most other building blocks are in place, but companies continue to restrict themselves by relying on inflexible budget processes and the command-and-control culture that budgeting entails. A number of companies have rejected the foregone conclusions embedded in budgets, and they've given up the self-interested wrangling over what the data indicate. In the absence of budgets, alternative goals and measures--some financial, such as cost-to-income ratios, and some nonfinancial, such as time to market-move to the foreground. Companies that have rejected budgets require employees to measure themselves against the performance of competitors and against internal peer groups. Because employees don't know whether they've succeeded until they can look back on the results of a given period, they must use every ounce of energy to ensure that they beat the competition. A key feature of many companies that have rejected budgets is the use of rolling forecasts, which are created every few months and typically cover five to eight quarters. Because the forecasts are regularly revised, they allow companies to continuously adapt to market conditions. The forecasting practices of two such companies, both based in Sweden, are examined in detail: the bank Svenska Handelsbanken and the wholesaler Ahlsell. Though the first companies to reject budgets were located in Northern Europe, organizations that have gone beyond budgeting can be found in a range of countries and industries. Their practices allow them to unleash the power of today's management tools and realize the potential of a fully decentralized organization. PMID:12577658

  8. Who needs budgets?

    PubMed

    Hope, Jeremy; Fraser, Robin

    2003-02-01

    Budgeting, as most corporations practice it, should be abolished. That may sound radical, but doing so would further companies' long-running efforts to transform themselves into developed networks that can nimbly adjust to market conditions. Most other building blocks are in place, but companies continue to restrict themselves by relying on inflexible budget processes and the command-and-control culture that budgeting entails. A number of companies have rejected the foregone conclusions embedded in budgets, and they've given up the self-interested wrangling over what the data indicate. In the absence of budgets, alternative goals and measures--some financial, such as cost-to-income ratios, and some nonfinancial, such as time to market-move to the foreground. Companies that have rejected budgets require employees to measure themselves against the performance of competitors and against internal peer groups. Because employees don't know whether they've succeeded until they can look back on the results of a given period, they must use every ounce of energy to ensure that they beat the competition. A key feature of many companies that have rejected budgets is the use of rolling forecasts, which are created every few months and typically cover five to eight quarters. Because the forecasts are regularly revised, they allow companies to continuously adapt to market conditions. The forecasting practices of two such companies, both based in Sweden, are examined in detail: the bank Svenska Handelsbanken and the wholesaler Ahlsell. Though the first companies to reject budgets were located in Northern Europe, organizations that have gone beyond budgeting can be found in a range of countries and industries. Their practices allow them to unleash the power of today's management tools and realize the potential of a fully decentralized organization.

  9. Partitioning a Steady State Sediment Budget to Represent Long tailed Distributions of Contaminant Residence Times: A Modeling Approach for Routing Tracers Through Alluvial Storage Reservoirs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pizzuto, J. E.; Ackerman, T. R.

    2012-12-01

    Mercury (Hg) was released into the South River, VA, from an industrial source from 1929-1950. Because of mercury's affinity for fine grained particles, a budget for fine sediment can be used to model the trajectories of Hg through the alluvial valley. We adopt Malmon's (2002) model, which requires each storage compartment to be "well-mixed". Our sediment budget quantifies residence times, exchange rates, and sediment storage volumes in the floodplain (FP), hyporheic zone, and in fine-grained channel margin (FGCM) deposits that form in the lee of obstructions (chiefly downed trees) along the sides of the wetted perimeter of the channel. This simple model with only 3 storage compartments fails to fit Hg concentration histories in the FGCM and under predicts contemporary mercury loading to the channel from bank erosion. We speculate that the FP and FGCM deposits are not well-mixed. Mercury is preferentially stored and remobilized from frequently-inundated, low elevation floodplain areas near the stream channel. Radiometric dates from FGCM deposits suggest that most sediments are reworked within a few years, but a small fraction of the deposits remains in storage for decades. We therefore partition the FP and FGCM deposits into multiple reservoirs, each with a different residence time. We divide the FGCM deposits into two sub-reservoirs with characteristic exchange rates and masses that represent the observed age distribution. Sediment accumulation rates on the FP follow an exponential distribution of FP relief, and we divide the floodplain into 5 reservoirs with inundation frequencies of 0.3, 2, 5, 62, and 100 years. Since erosion is assumed to be evenly distributed across each reservoir, FP area as a function of age decreases exponentially. With time, the elevation of floodplains increases through sedimentation, so a portion of each reservoir evolves into a less frequently inundated category every year, creating a unidirectional mass flux from each FP reservoir into

  10. Bayesian Decision Theory Guiding Educational Decision-Making: Theories, Models and Application

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pan, Yilin

    2016-01-01

    Given the importance of education and the growing public demand for improving education quality under tight budget constraints, there has been an emerging movement to call for research-informed decisions in educational resource allocation. Despite the abundance of rigorous studies on the effectiveness, cost, and implementation of educational…

  11. Fiscal 1983 Science Budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richman, Barbara T.

    Support for science generally is strong in President Ronald Reagan's fiscal 1983 budget proposal, released last week; agency budgets for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), however, did not beat inflation.Total federal funding for research and development and related facilities rose 9.6% to $44.3 billion, beating the 7.3% inflation rate estimated for 1982 by the Office of Management and Budget. Obligations for basic research by various departments and agencies also topped inflation. The President proposes federal funding of $5.82 billion in fiscal 1983, compared with $5.35 billion in 1982.

  12. Outyear Budgeting Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Carlos Castillo, Jerel Nelson

    2010-12-31

    OBTool performs the following: • Consistent method and tool to develop/estimate fiscal year (FY) 2010 and outyear budget/estimates • Maintain configuration control on resource rates and changes to outyear budget estimates, while allowing for accessibility, accountability, and tracking shared access between program managers, facility managers (FMs), project managers (PMs), cost account managers (CAMs), and project controls engineers (PCEs) • Consistency in budget estimating methodology, including scope, requirements, basis of estimates, resources, activities, escalation, and presentation of documentation in tasks and execution plans and reports • Ability to sync (i.e. export) and import data into Primavera and Cobra to the lifecycle baseline file

  13. A catastrophe-theory model for simulating behavioral accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Souder, W.E.

    1988-01-01

    Behavioral accidents are a particular type of accident. They are caused by inappropriate individual behaviors and faulty reactions. Catastrophe theory is a means for mathematically modeling the dynamic processes that underlie behavioral accidents. Based on a comprehensive data base of mining accidents, a computerized catastrophe model has been developed by the Bureau of Mines. This model systematically links individual psychological, group behavioral, and mine environmental variables with other accident causing factors. It answers several longstanding questions about why some normally safe behaving persons may spontaneously engage in unsafe acts that have high risks of serious injury. Field tests with the model indicate that it has three imnportant uses: it can be used as a effective training aid for increasing employee safety consciousness; it can be used as a management laboratory for testing decision alternatives and policies; and it can be used to help design the most effective work teams.

  14. Symmetry-guided large-scale shell-model theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Launey, Kristina D.; Dytrych, Tomas; Draayer, Jerry P.

    2016-07-01

    In this review, we present a symmetry-guided strategy that utilizes exact as well as partial symmetries for enabling a deeper understanding of and advancing ab initio studies for determining the microscopic structure of atomic nuclei. These symmetries expose physically relevant degrees of freedom that, for large-scale calculations with QCD-inspired interactions, allow the model space size to be reduced through a very structured selection of the basis states to physically relevant subspaces. This can guide explorations of simple patterns in nuclei and how they emerge from first principles, as well as extensions of the theory beyond current limitations toward heavier nuclei and larger model spaces. This is illustrated for the ab initio symmetry-adapted no-core shell model (SA-NCSM) and two significant underlying symmetries, the symplectic Sp(3 , R) group and its deformation-related SU(3) subgroup. We review the broad scope of nuclei, where these symmetries have been found to play a key role-from the light p-shell systems, such as 6Li, 8B, 8Be, 12C, and 16O, and sd-shell nuclei exemplified by 20Ne, based on first-principle explorations; through the Hoyle state in 12C and enhanced collectivity in intermediate-mass nuclei, within a no-core shell-model perspective; up to strongly deformed species of the rare-earth and actinide regions, as investigated in earlier studies. A complementary picture, driven by symmetries dual to Sp(3 , R) , is also discussed. We briefly review symmetry-guided techniques that prove useful in various nuclear-theory models, such as Elliott model, ab initio SA-NCSM, symplectic model, pseudo- SU(3) and pseudo-symplectic models, ab initio hyperspherical harmonics method, ab initio lattice effective field theory, exact pairing-plus-shell model approaches, and cluster models, including the resonating-group method. Important implications of these approaches that have deepened our understanding of emergent phenomena in nuclei, such as enhanced

  15. MaRIE theory, modeling and computation roadmap executive summary

    SciTech Connect

    Lookman, Turab

    2010-01-01

    The confluence of MaRIE (Matter-Radiation Interactions in Extreme) and extreme (exascale) computing timelines offers a unique opportunity in co-designing the elements of materials discovery, with theory and high performance computing, itself co-designed by constrained optimization of hardware and software, and experiments. MaRIE's theory, modeling, and computation (TMC) roadmap efforts have paralleled 'MaRIE First Experiments' science activities in the areas of materials dynamics, irradiated materials and complex functional materials in extreme conditions. The documents that follow this executive summary describe in detail for each of these areas the current state of the art, the gaps that exist and the road map to MaRIE and beyond. Here we integrate the various elements to articulate an overarching theme related to the role and consequences of heterogeneities which manifest as competing states in a complex energy landscape. MaRIE experiments will locate, measure and follow the dynamical evolution of these heterogeneities. Our TMC vision spans the various pillar science and highlights the key theoretical and experimental challenges. We also present a theory, modeling and computation roadmap of the path to and beyond MaRIE in each of the science areas.

  16. General topology meets model theory, on p and t.

    PubMed

    Malliaris, Maryanthe; Shelah, Saharon

    2013-08-13

    Cantor proved in 1874 [Cantor G (1874) J Reine Angew Math 77:258-262] that the continuum is uncountable, and Hilbert's first problem asks whether it is the smallest uncountable cardinal. A program arose to study cardinal invariants of the continuum, which measure the size of the continuum in various ways. By Gödel [Gödel K (1939) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 25(4):220-224] and Cohen [Cohen P (1963) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 50(6):1143-1148], Hilbert's first problem is independent of ZFC (Zermelo-Fraenkel set theory with the axiom of choice). Much work both before and since has been done on inequalities between these cardinal invariants, but some basic questions have remained open despite Cohen's introduction of forcing. The oldest and perhaps most famous of these is whether " p = t," which was proved in a special case by Rothberger [Rothberger F (1948) Fund Math 35:29-46], building on Hausdorff [Hausdorff (1936) Fund Math 26:241-255]. In this paper we explain how our work on the structure of Keisler's order, a large-scale classification problem in model theory, led to the solution of this problem in ZFC as well as of an a priori unrelated open question in model theory.

  17. Reasoning with Conditionals: A Test of Formal Models of Four Theories

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oberauer, Klaus

    2006-01-01

    The four dominant theories of reasoning from conditionals are translated into formal models: The theory of mental models (Johnson-Laird, P. N., & Byrne, R. M. J. (2002). Conditionals: a theory of meaning, pragmatics, and inference. "Psychological Review," 109, 646-678), the suppositional theory (Evans, J. S. B. T., & Over, D. E. (2004). "If."…

  18. Toward a General Research Process for Using Dubin's Theory Building Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holton, Elwood F.; Lowe, Janis S.

    2007-01-01

    Dubin developed a widely used methodology for theory building, which describes the components of the theory building process. Unfortunately, he does not define a research process for implementing his theory building model. This article proposes a seven-step general research process for implementing Dubin's theory building model. An example of a…

  19. Abelian p-form (p = 1, 2, 3) gauge theories as the field theoretic models for the Hodge theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, R.; Krishna, S.; Shukla, A.; Malik, R. P.

    2014-09-01

    Taking the simple examples of an Abelian 1-form gauge theory in two (1+1)-dimensions, a 2-form gauge theory in four (3+1)-dimensions and a 3-form gauge theory in six (5+1)-dimensions of space-time, we establish that such gauge theories respect, in addition to the gauge symmetry transformations that are generated by the first-class constraints of the theory, additional continuous symmetry transformations. We christen the latter symmetry transformations as the dual-gauge transformations. We generalize the above gauge and dual-gauge transformations to obtain the proper (anti-)BRST and (anti-)dual-BRST transformations for the Abelian 3-form gauge theory within the framework of BRST formalism. We concisely mention such symmetries for the 2D free Abelian 1-form and 4D free Abelian 2-form gauge theories and briefly discuss their topological aspects in our present endeavor. We conjecture that any arbitrary Abelian p-form gauge theory would respect the above cited additional symmetry in D = 2p(p = 1, 2, 3, …) dimensions of space-time. By exploiting the above inputs, we establish that the Abelian 3-form gauge theory, in six (5+1)-dimensions of space-time, is a perfect model for the Hodge theory whose discrete and continuous symmetry transformations provide the physical realizations of all aspects of the de Rham cohomological operators of differential geometry. As far as the physical utility of the above nilpotent symmetries is concerned, we demonstrate that the 2D Abelian 1-form gauge theory is a perfect model of a new class of topological theory and 4D Abelian 2-form as well as 6D Abelian 3-form gauge theories are the field theoretic models for the quasi-topological field theory.

  20. How well do stomatal conductance models perform on closing plant carbon budgets? A test using seedlings grown under current and elevated air temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Way, Danielle A.; Oren, Ram; Kim, Hyun-Seok; Katul, Gabriel G.

    2011-12-01

    Future carbon and water fluxes within terrestrial ecosystems will be determined by how stomatal conductance (gs) responds to rising atmospheric CO2and air temperatures. While both short- and long-term CO2 effects on gs have been repeatedly studied, there are few studies on how gs acclimates to higher air temperatures. Six gs models were parameterized using leaf gas exchange data from black spruce (Picea mariana) seedlings grown from seed at ambient (22/16°C day/night) or elevated (30/24°C) air temperatures. Model performance was independently assessed by how well carbon gain from each model reproduced estimated carbon costs to close the seedlings' seasonal carbon budgets, a `long-term' indicator of success. A model holding a constant intercellular to ambient CO2ratio and the Ball-Berry model (based on stomatal responses to relative humidity) could not close the carbon balance for either treatment, while the Jarvis-Oren model (based on stomatal responses to vapor pressure deficit,D) and a model assuming a constant gs each closed the carbon balance for one treatment. Two models, both based on gs responses to D, performed best overall, estimating carbon uptake within 10% of carbon costs for both treatments: the Leuning model and a linear optimization model that maximizes carbon gain per unit water loss. Since gsresponses in the optimization model are not a priori assumed, this approach can be used in modeling land-atmosphere exchange of CO2 and water in future climates.

  1. FY 1997 congressional budget request: Budget highlights

    SciTech Connect

    1996-03-01

    This is an overview of the 1997 budget request for the US DOE. The topics of the overview include a policy overview, the budget by business line, business lines by organization, crosswalk from business line to appropriation, summary by appropriation, energy supply research and development, uranium supply and enrichment activities, uranium enrichment decontamination and decommissioning fund, general science and research, weapons activities, defense environmental restoration and waste management, defense nuclear waste disposal, departmental administration, Office of the Inspector General, power marketing administrations, Federal Energy Regulatory commission, nuclear waste disposal fund, fossil energy research and development, naval petroleum and oil shale reserves, energy conservation, economic regulation, strategic petroleum reserve, energy information administration, clean coal technology and a Department of Energy Field Facilities map.

  2. A cellular automaton model for evacuation flow using game theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, Junbiao; Wang, Kaihua; Chen, Fangyue

    2016-11-01

    Game theory serves as a good tool to explore crowd dynamic conflicts during evacuation processes. The purpose of this study is to simulate the complicated interaction behavior among the conflicting pedestrians in an evacuation flow. Two types of pedestrians, namely, defectors and cooperators, are considered, and two important factors including fear index and cost coefficient are taken into account. By combining the snowdrift game theory with a cellular automaton (CA) model, it is shown that the increase of fear index and cost coefficient will lengthen the evacuation time, which is more apparent for large values of cost coefficient. Meanwhile, it is found that the defectors to cooperators ratio could always tend to consistent states despite different values of parameters, largely owing to self-organization effects.

  3. On the standard model group in F-theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Kang-Sin

    2014-06-01

    We analyze the standard model gauge group constructed in F-theory. The non-Abelian part is described by a surface singularity of Kodaira type. Blow-up analysis shows that the non-Abelian part is distinguished from the naïve product of and , but that it should be a rank three group along the chain of groups, because it has non-generic gauge symmetry enhancement structure responsible for desirable matter curves. The Abelian part is constructed from a globally valid two-form with the desired gauge quantum numbers, using a similar method to the decomposition (factorization) method of the spectral cover. This technique makes use of an extra section in the elliptic fiber of the Calabi-Yau manifold, on which F-theory is compactified. Conventional gauge coupling unification of is achieved, without requiring a threshold correction from the flux along the hypercharge direction.

  4. Visceral obesity and psychosocial stress: a generalised control theory model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wallace, Rodrick

    2016-07-01

    The linking of control theory and information theory via the Data Rate Theorem and its generalisations allows for construction of necessary conditions statistical models of body mass regulation in the context of interaction with a complex dynamic environment. By focusing on the stress-related induction of central obesity via failure of HPA axis regulation, we explore implications for strategies of prevention and treatment. It rapidly becomes evident that individual-centred biomedical reductionism is an inadequate paradigm. Without mitigation of HPA axis or related dysfunctions arising from social pathologies of power imbalance, economic insecurity, and so on, it is unlikely that permanent changes in visceral obesity for individuals can be maintained without constant therapeutic effort, an expensive - and likely unsustainable - public policy.

  5. Applications of queueing theory to stochastic models of gene expression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kulkarni, Rahul

    2012-02-01

    The intrinsic stochasticity of cellular processes implies that analysis of fluctuations (`noise') is often essential for quantitative modeling of gene expression. Recent single-cell experiments have carried out such analysis to characterize moments and entire probability distributions for quantities of interest, e.g. mRNA and protein levels across a population of cells. Correspondingly, there is a need to develop general analytical tools for modeling and interpretation of data obtained from such single-cell experiments. One such approach involves the mapping between models of stochastic gene expression and systems analyzed in queueing theory. The talk will provide an overview of this approach and discuss how theorems from queueing theory (e.g. Little's Law) can be used to derive exact results for general stochastic models of gene expression. In the limit that gene expression occurs in bursts, analytical results can be obtained which provide insight into the effects of different regulatory mechanisms on the noise in protein steady-state distributions. In particular, the approach can be used to analyze the effect of post-transcriptional regulation by non-coding RNAs leading to new insights and experimentally testable predictions.

  6. Continued development of modeling tools and theory for RF heating

    SciTech Connect

    1998-12-01

    Mission Research Corporation (MRC) is pleased to present the Department of Energy (DOE) with its renewal proposal to the Continued Development of Modeling Tools and Theory for RF Heating program. The objective of the program is to continue and extend the earlier work done by the proposed principal investigator in the field of modeling (Radio Frequency) RF heating experiments in the large tokamak fusion experiments, particularly the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) device located at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL). An integral part of this work is the investigation and, in some cases, resolution of theoretical issues which pertain to accurate modeling. MRC is nearing the successful completion of the specified tasks of the Continued Development of Modeling Tools and Theory for RF Heating project. The following tasks are either completed or nearing completion. (1) Anisotropic temperature and rotation upgrades; (2) Modeling for relativistic ECRH; (3) Further documentation of SHOOT and SPRUCE. As a result of the progress achieved under this project, MRC has been urged to continue this effort. Specifically, during the performance of this project two topics were identified by PPPL personnel as new applications of the existing RF modeling tools. These two topics concern (a) future fast-wave current drive experiments on the large tokamaks including TFTR and (c) the interpretation of existing and future RF probe data from TFTR. To address each of these topics requires some modification or enhancement of the existing modeling tools, and the first topic requires resolution of certain theoretical issues to produce self-consistent results. This work falls within the scope of the original project and is more suited to the project`s renewal than to the initiation of a new project.

  7. Validation of cloud forcing simulated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model using observations from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soden, B. J.

    1992-01-01

    Satellite measurements of the effect of clouds on the top of atmosphere radiative energy budget are used to validate model simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (NCAR CCM). The ability of the NCAR CCM to reproduce the monthly mean global distribution and temporal variability on both daily and seasonal time scales is assessed. The comparison reveals several deficiencies in the CCM cloud representation. Most notable are the difficulties in properly simulating the effect of clouds on the planetary albedo. This problem arises from discrepancies in the model's portrayal of low-level cloudiness and leads to significant errors in the absorbed solar radiation simulated by the model. The CCM performs much better in simulating the effect of clouds on the longwave radiation emitted to space, indicating its relative success in capturing the vertical distribution of cloudiness. The daily variability of the radiative effects of clouds in both the shortwave and longwave spectral regions is systematically overestimated. Analysis of the seasonal variations illustrates a distinct lack of coupling in the seasonal changes in the radiative effects of cloudiness between the tropics and mid-latitudes and between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Much of this problem also arises from difficulties in simulating low-level cloudiness, placing further emphasis on the need for better model parameterizations of boundary layer clouds.

  8. Adapting Structuration Theory as a Comprehensive Theory for Distance Education: The ASTIDE Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aktaruzzaman, Md; Plunkett, Margaret

    2016-01-01

    Distance Education (DE) theorists have argued about the requirement for a theory to be comprehensive in a way that can explicate many of the activities associated with DE. Currently, Transactional Distance Theory (TDT) (Moore, 1993) and the Theory of Instructional Dialogue (IDT) (Caspi & Gorsky, 2006) are the most prominent theories, yet they…

  9. Dynamic statistical models of biological cognition: insights from communications theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wallace, Rodrick

    2014-10-01

    Maturana's cognitive perspective on the living state, Dretske's insight on how information theory constrains cognition, the Atlan/Cohen cognitive paradigm, and models of intelligence without representation, permit construction of a spectrum of dynamic necessary conditions statistical models of signal transduction, regulation, and metabolism at and across the many scales and levels of organisation of an organism and its context. Nonequilibrium critical phenomena analogous to physical phase transitions, driven by crosstalk, will be ubiquitous, representing not only signal switching, but the recruitment of underlying cognitive modules into tunable dynamic coalitions that address changing patterns of need and opportunity at all scales and levels of organisation. The models proposed here, while certainly providing much conceptual insight, should be most useful in the analysis of empirical data, much as are fitted regression equations.

  10. A queueing theory based model for business continuity in hospitals.

    PubMed

    Miniati, R; Cecconi, G; Dori, F; Frosini, F; Iadanza, E; Biffi Gentili, G; Niccolini, F; Gusinu, R

    2013-01-01

    Clinical activities can be seen as results of precise and defined events' succession where every single phase is characterized by a waiting time which includes working duration and possible delay. Technology makes part of this process. For a proper business continuity management, planning the minimum number of devices according to the working load only is not enough. A risk analysis on the whole process should be carried out in order to define which interventions and extra purchase have to be made. Markov models and reliability engineering approaches can be used for evaluating the possible interventions and to protect the whole system from technology failures. The following paper reports a case study on the application of the proposed integrated model, including risk analysis approach and queuing theory model, for defining the proper number of device which are essential to guarantee medical activity and comply the business continuity management requirements in hospitals. PMID:24109839

  11. A queueing theory based model for business continuity in hospitals.

    PubMed

    Miniati, R; Cecconi, G; Dori, F; Frosini, F; Iadanza, E; Biffi Gentili, G; Niccolini, F; Gusinu, R

    2013-01-01

    Clinical activities can be seen as results of precise and defined events' succession where every single phase is characterized by a waiting time which includes working duration and possible delay. Technology makes part of this process. For a proper business continuity management, planning the minimum number of devices according to the working load only is not enough. A risk analysis on the whole process should be carried out in order to define which interventions and extra purchase have to be made. Markov models and reliability engineering approaches can be used for evaluating the possible interventions and to protect the whole system from technology failures. The following paper reports a case study on the application of the proposed integrated model, including risk analysis approach and queuing theory model, for defining the proper number of device which are essential to guarantee medical activity and comply the business continuity management requirements in hospitals.

  12. Congress trims NSF budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maggs, William Ward

    The last-minute spending bill adopted by Congress just before its 1987 holiday recess provides $1,717 billion for the National Science Foundation (NSF) for fiscal year (FY) 1988. The approved figure is more than 9% lower than the request in President Reagan's budget plan. In addition, wording in the House version of the bill that mandated protection of ocean science and women and minorities programs did not appear in the final product that was approved by Congress and signed into law.In absolute terms, NSF's budget will be 6% more than in 1987, far less than expected by the agency and the White House, which had proposed a doubling of NSF's budget over the next several years. The Research and Related Activities section of the budget, out of which comes the bulk of NSF's support of basic research, was funded at $1,453 billion, $200 million less than its $1,653 billion request, and the Antarctic Research section received $124.8 million of $143 million in the President's budget. Science Education, on the other hand, was budgeted for $139.2 million, $25 million more than requested.

  13. Earth radiation budget experiment software development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edmonds, W. L.

    1985-01-01

    Computer programming and analysis efforts were carried out in support of the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) at NASA/Langley. The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment is described as well as data acquisition, analysis and modeling support for the testing of ERBE instruments. Also included are descriptions of the programs developed to analyze, format and display data collected during testing of the various ERBE instruments. Listings of the major programs developed under this contract are located in an appendix.

  14. Rigorously testing multialternative decision field theory against random utility models.

    PubMed

    Berkowitsch, Nicolas A J; Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg

    2014-06-01

    Cognitive models of decision making aim to explain the process underlying observed choices. Here, we test a sequential sampling model of decision making, multialternative decision field theory (MDFT; Roe, Busemeyer, & Townsend, 2001), on empirical grounds and compare it against 2 established random utility models of choice: the probit and the logit model. Using a within-subject experimental design, participants in 2 studies repeatedly choose among sets of options (consumer products) described on several attributes. The results of Study 1 showed that all models predicted participants' choices equally well. In Study 2, in which the choice sets were explicitly designed to distinguish the models, MDFT had an advantage in predicting the observed choices. Study 2 further revealed the occurrence of multiple context effects within single participants, indicating an interdependent evaluation of choice options and correlations between different context effects. In sum, the results indicate that sequential sampling models can provide relevant insights into the cognitive process underlying preferential choices and thus can lead to better choice predictions.

  15. Similarity Theory And Subgrid-scale Modeling For Les

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porté-Agel, F.; Carper, M.

    An important challenge in LES of the atmospheric boundary layer is the parameteri- zation of non-resolved scales using a subgrid-scale model. Numerical simulations and field experiments were performed to address open issues in SGS modeling. We present a new scale-dependent dynamic model to parameterize the SGS fluxes in the LES fil- tered heat equation. This model is analogous to that proposed by Porté-Agel et al (J. Fluid Mech., 2000) for the eddy-viscosity parameterization of the SGS stresses in the momentum equation. The model coefficient is optimized at every time step and posi- tion in the flow based on the resolved velocity and temperature fields. The dependence of the computed coefficient on distance from the ground, grid scale and atmospheric stability are studied and compared with results obtained from a priori field studies. The new scale-dependent dynamic model does not require any parameter specification and yields more realistic simulations (better able to reproduce Monin-Obukhov similarity theory) than the traditional eddy-diffusion and scale-invariant dynamic models.

  16. Assembly models for Papovaviridae based on tiling theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keef, T.; Taormina, A.; Twarock, R.

    2005-09-01

    A vital constituent of a virus is its protein shell, called the viral capsid, that encapsulates and hence provides protection for the viral genome. Assembly models are developed for viral capsids built from protein building blocks that can assume different local bonding structures in the capsid. This situation occurs, for example, for viruses in the family of Papovaviridae, which are linked to cancer and are hence of particular interest for the health sector. More specifically, the viral capsids of the (pseudo-) T = 7 particles in this family consist of pentamers that exhibit two different types of bonding structures. While this scenario cannot be described mathematically in terms of Caspar-Klug theory (Caspar D L D and Klug A 1962 Cold Spring Harbor Symp. Quant. Biol. 27 1), it can be modelled via tiling theory (Twarock R 2004 J. Theor. Biol. 226 477). The latter is used to encode the local bonding environment of the building blocks in a combinatorial structure, called the assembly tree, which is a basic ingredient in the derivation of assembly models for Papovaviridae along the lines of the equilibrium approach of Zlotnick (Zlotnick A 1994 J. Mol. Biol. 241 59). A phase space formalism is introduced to characterize the changes in the assembly pathways and intermediates triggered by the variations in the association energies characterizing the bonds between the building blocks in the capsid. Furthermore, the assembly pathways and concentrations of the statistically dominant assembly intermediates are determined. The example of Simian virus 40 is discussed in detail.

  17. Assembly models for Papovaviridae based on tiling theory.

    PubMed

    Keef, T; Taormina, A; Twarock, R

    2005-09-01

    A vital constituent of a virus is its protein shell, called the viral capsid, that encapsulates and hence provides protection for the viral genome. Assembly models are developed for viral capsids built from protein building blocks that can assume different local bonding structures in the capsid. This situation occurs, for example, for viruses in the family of Papovaviridae, which are linked to cancer and are hence of particular interest for the health sector. More specifically, the viral capsids of the (pseudo-) T = 7 particles in this family consist of pentamers that exhibit two different types of bonding structures. While this scenario cannot be described mathematically in terms of Caspar-Klug theory (Caspar D L D and Klug A 1962 Cold Spring Harbor Symp. Quant. Biol. 27 1), it can be modelled via tiling theory (Twarock R 2004 J. Theor. Biol. 226 477). The latter is used to encode the local bonding environment of the building blocks in a combinatorial structure, called the assembly tree, which is a basic ingredient in the derivation of assembly models for Papovaviridae along the lines of the equilibrium approach of Zlotnick (Zlotnick A 1994 J. Mol. Biol. 241 59). A phase space formalism is introduced to characterize the changes in the assembly pathways and intermediates triggered by the variations in the association energies characterizing the bonds between the building blocks in the capsid. Furthermore, the assembly pathways and concentrations of the statistically dominant assembly intermediates are determined. The example of Simian virus 40 is discussed in detail. PMID:16224123

  18. Global Carbon Budget 2015

    DOE PAGES

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Canadell, J. G.; Sitch, S.; Korsbakken, J. I.; Friedlingstein, P.; Peters, G. P.; Andres, R. J.; Boden, T. A.; et al

    2015-12-07

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We also discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology andmore » data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. Moreover, the mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each

  19. Global carbon budget 2014

    DOE PAGES

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Peters, G. P.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Jones, S. D.; Sitch, S.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; et al

    2015-05-08

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissionsmore » from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ;, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates

  20. Global Carbon Budget 2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Canadell, J. G.; Sitch, S.; Korsbakken, J. I.; Friedlingstein, P.; Peters, G. P.; Andres, R. J.; Boden, T. A.; Houghton, R. A.; House, J. I.; Keeling, R. F.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Barbero, L.; Bopp, L.; Chang, J.; Chevallier, F.; Chini, L. P.; Ciais, P.; Fader, M.; Feely, R. A.; Gkritzalis, T.; Harris, I.; Hauck, J.; Ilyina, T.; Jain, A. K.; Kato, E.; Kitidis, V.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Koven, C.; Landschützer, P.; Lauvset, S. K.; Lefèvre, N.; Lenton, A.; Lima, I. D.; Metzl, N.; Millero, F.; Munro, D. R.; Murata, A.; Nabel, J. E. M. S.; Nakaoka, S.; Nojiri, Y.; O'Brien, K.; Olsen, A.; Ono, T.; Pérez, F. F.; Pfeil, B.; Pierrot, D.; Poulter, B.; Rehder, G.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Schuster, U.; Schwinger, J.; Séférian, R.; Steinhoff, T.; Stocker, B. D.; Sutton, A. J.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; van Heuven, S.; Vandemark, D.; Viovy, N.; Wiltshire, A.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.

    2015-12-01

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global

  1. Global Carbon Budget 2015

    SciTech Connect

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Canadell, J. G.; Sitch, S.; Korsbakken, J. I.; Friedlingstein, P.; Peters, G. P.; Andres, R. J.; Boden, T. A.; Houghton, R. A.; House, J. I.; Keeling, R. F.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Barbero, L.; Bopp, L.; Chang, J.; Chevallier, F.; Chini, L. P.; Ciais, P.; Fader, M.; Gkritzalis, T.; Harris, I.; Hauck, J.; Ilyina, T.; Jain, A. K.; Kato, E.; Kitidis, V.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Landschützer, P.; Lauvset, S. K.; Lefèvre, N.; Lenton, A.; Lima, I. D.; Metzl, N.; Millero, F.; Munro, D. R.; Murata, A.; Nabel, J. E. M. S.; Nakaoka, S.; Nojiri, Y.; O'Brien, K.; Olsen, A.; Ono, T.; Pérez, F. F.; Pfeil, B.; Pierrot, D.; Poulter, B.; Rehder, G.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Schuster, U.; Schwinger, J.; Séférian, R.; Steinhoff, T.; Stocker, B. D.; Sutton, A. J.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; van Heuven, S.; Vandemark, D.; Viovy, N.; Wiltshire, A.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.

    2015-12-07

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We also discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. Moreover, the mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three

  2. Global carbon budget 2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Peters, G. P.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Jones, S. D.; Sitch, S.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Boden, T. A.; Bopp, L.; Bozec, Y.; Canadell, J. G.; Chini, L. P.; Chevallier, F.; Cosca, C. E.; Harris, I.; Hoppema, M.; Houghton, R. A.; House, J. I.; Jain, A. K.; Johannessen, T.; Kato, E.; Keeling, R. F.; Kitidis, V.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Koven, C.; Landa, C. S.; Landschützer, P.; Lenton, A.; Lima, I. D.; Marland, G.; Mathis, J. T.; Metzl, N.; Nojiri, Y.; Olsen, A.; Ono, T.; Peng, S.; Peters, W.; Pfeil, B.; Poulter, B.; Raupach, M. R.; Regnier, P.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Salisbury, J. E.; Schuster, U.; Schwinger, J.; Séférian, R.; Segschneider, J.; Steinhoff, T.; Stocker, B. D.; Sutton, A. J.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; van der Werf, G. R.; Viovy, N.; Wang, Y.-P.; Wanninkhof, R.; Wiltshire, A.; Zeng, N.

    2015-05-01

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each

  3. Global carbon budget 2014

    SciTech Connect

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Peters, G. P.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Jones, S. D.; Sitch, S.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Boden, T. A.; Bopp, L.; Bozec, Y.; Canadell, J. G.; Chini, L. P.; Chevallier, F.; Cosca, C. E.; Harris, I.; Hoppema, M.; Houghton, R. A.; House, J. I.; Jain, A. K.; Johannessen, T.; Kato, E.; Keeling, R. F.; Kitidis, V.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Koven, C.; Landa, C. S.; Landschützer, P.; Lenton, A.; Lima, I. D.; Marland, G.; Mathis, J. T.; Metzl, N.; Nojiri, Y.; Olsen, A.; Ono, T.; Peng, S.; Peters, W.; Pfeil, B.; Poulter, B.; Raupach, M. R.; Regnier, P.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Salisbury, J. E.; Schuster, U.; Schwinger, J.; Séférian, R.; Segschneider, J.; Steinhoff, T.; Stocker, B. D.; Sutton, A. J.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; van der Werf, G. R.; Viovy, N.; Wang, Y.-P.; Wanninkhof, R.; Wiltshire, A.; Zeng, N.

    2015-05-08

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from

  4. DEBtox theory and matrix population models as helpful tools in understanding the interaction between toxic cyanobacteria and zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Billoir, Elise; da Silva Ferrão-Filho, Aloysio; Laure Delignette-Muller, Marie; Charles, Sandrine

    2009-06-01

    Bioassays were performed to find out how field samples of the toxic cyanobacteria Microcystis aeruginosa affect Moina micrura, a cladoceran found in the tropical Jacarepagua Lagoon (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil). The DEBtox (Dynamic Energy Budget theory applied to toxicity data) approach has been proposed for use in analysing chronic toxicity tests as an alternative to calculating the usual safety parameters (NOEC, ECx). DEBtox theory deals with the energy balance between physiological processes (assimilation, maintenance, growth and reproduction), and it can be used to investigate and compare various hypotheses concerning the mechanism of action of a toxicant. Even though the DEBtox framework was designed for standard toxicity bioassays carried out with standard species (fish, daphnids), we applied the growth and reproduction models to M. micrura, by adapting the data available using a weight-length allometric relationship. Our modelling approach appeared to be very relevant at the individual level, and confirmed previous conclusions about the toxic mechanism. In our study we also wanted to assess the toxic effects at the population level, which is a more relevant endpoint in risk assessment. We therefore incorporated both lethal and sublethal toxic effects in a matrix population model used to calculate the finite rate of population change as a continuous function of the exposure concentration. Alongside this calculation, we constructed a confidence band to predict the critical exposure concentration for population health. Finally, we discuss our findings with regard to the prospects for further refining the analysis of ecotoxicological data. PMID:18706427

  5. Wireless network traffic modeling based on extreme value theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Chunfeng; Shu, Yantai; Yang, Oliver W. W.; Liu, Jiakun; Dong, Linfang

    2006-10-01

    In this paper, Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is presented to analyze wireless network traffic. The role of EVT is to allow the development of procedures that are scientifically and statistically rational to estimate the extreme behavior of random processes. There are two primary methods for studying extremes: the Block Maximum (BM) method and the Points Over Threshold (POT) method. By taking limited traffic data that is greater than the threshold value, our experiment and analysis show the wireless network traffic model obtained with the EVT fits well with that of empirical distribution of traffic, thus illustrating that EVT has a good application foreground in the analysis of wireless network traffic.

  6. Collective field theory of a singular supersymmetric matrix model

    SciTech Connect

    de Mello Koch, R.; Rodrigues, J.P.

    1995-05-15

    The supersymmetric collective field theory with the potential {ital v}{prime}({ital x})={omega}{ital x}{minus}{eta}/{ital x} is studied. Consistency with supersymmetry enforces a two band solution. A supersymmetric classical configuration is found, and interpreted in terms of the density of zeroes of certain Laguerre polynomials. The spectrum of the model is then studied and is seen to correspond to a massless scalar and a Majorana fermion. The {ital x} space eigenfunctions are constructed and expressed in terms of Chebyshev polynomials. Higher order interactions are also discussed.

  7. Stochastical modeling for Viral Disease: Statistical Mechanics and Network Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Hao; Deem, Michael

    2007-04-01

    Theoretical methods of statistical mechanics are developed and applied to study the immunological response against viral disease, such as dengue. We use this theory to show how the immune response to four different dengue serotypes may be sculpted. It is the ability of avian influenza, to change and to mix, that has given rise to the fear of a new human flu pandemic. Here we propose to utilize a scale free network based stochastic model to investigate the mitigation strategies and analyze the risk.

  8. Growth of the Pacific oyster ( Crassostrea gigas) in a high-turbidity environment: Comparison of model simulations based on scope for growth and dynamic energy budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barillé, Laurent; Lerouxel, Astrid; Dutertre, Mickaël; Haure, Joël; Barillé, Anne-Laure; Pouvreau, Stéphane; Alunno-Bruscia, Marianne

    2011-11-01

    We compared growth simulations by dynamic energy budget (DEB) and scope for growth (SFG) models of the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas, cultivated in Bourgneuf Bay on the French Atlantic coast. This bay is located at a latitude in the middle of the European range of the species, and is characterized by high concentrations of suspended particulate matter (SPM) and a marked gradient between high-turbidity sites in the north (daily SPM > 500 mg L - 1 ) and intermediate-turbidity sites in the south. The models use two forcing variables: seawater temperature and food density. We tested two indices of food availability: chlorophyll a and microalgal concentrations. In the SFG model, food intake is simulated by a type-II Holling functional response, as in the DEB formulation, and the effect of turbidity in both models is therefore taken into account principally through the half-saturation coefficient for this functional response. Chlorophyll a concentrations were three to four times higher at the high-turbidity site, but oyster growth rates were significantly lower at this site than at the intermediate-turbidity site. A comparison of observed and simulated values showed that the DEB model performed better than the SFG model if microalgal concentration was used as an index of food availability, with the SFG model underestimating oyster growth in summer and autumn. However, the SFG model was much more efficient if chlorophyll a concentrations were used, with the DEB model systematically overestimating summer and autumn growth. This comparison suggests that both SFG and DEB simulations could be improved, to give a more accurate description of oyster growth in a turbid environment, and that the pre-ingestive selection mechanisms used by suspension feeders in turbid environments should probably be included in the formulation of feeding processes.

  9. Budget Impact Analysis of Switching to Digital Mammography in a Population-Based Breast Cancer Screening Program: A Discrete Event Simulation Model

    PubMed Central

    Comas, Mercè; Arrospide, Arantzazu; Mar, Javier; Sala, Maria; Vilaprinyó, Ester; Hernández, Cristina; Cots, Francesc; Martínez, Juan; Castells, Xavier

    2014-01-01

    Objective To assess the budgetary impact of switching from screen-film mammography to full-field digital mammography in a population-based breast cancer screening program. Methods A discrete-event simulation model was built to reproduce the breast cancer screening process (biennial mammographic screening of women aged 50 to 69 years) combined with the natural history of breast cancer. The simulation started with 100,000 women and, during a 20-year simulation horizon, new women were dynamically entered according to the aging of the Spanish population. Data on screening were obtained from Spanish breast cancer screening programs. Data on the natural history of breast cancer were based on US data adapted to our population. A budget impact analysis comparing digital with screen-film screening mammography was performed in a sample of 2,000 simulation runs. A sensitivity analysis was performed for crucial screening-related parameters. Distinct scenarios for recall and detection rates were compared. Results Statistically significant savings were found for overall costs, treatment costs and the costs of additional tests in the long term. The overall cost saving was 1,115,857€ (95%CI from 932,147 to 1,299,567) in the 10th year and 2,866,124€ (95%CI from 2,492,610 to 3,239,638) in the 20th year, representing 4.5% and 8.1% of the overall cost associated with screen-film mammography. The sensitivity analysis showed net savings in the long term. Conclusions Switching to digital mammography in a population-based breast cancer screening program saves long-term budget expense, in addition to providing technical advantages. Our results were consistent across distinct scenarios representing the different results obtained in European breast cancer screening programs. PMID:24832200

  10. Spatially distributed groundwater recharge estimated using a water-budget model for the Island of Maui, Hawai‘i, 1978-2007

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Adam G.; Engott, John A.; Bassiouni, Maoya

    2014-01-01

    Demand for freshwater on the Island of Maui is expected to grow. To evaluate the availability of fresh groundwater, estimates of groundwater recharge are needed. A water-budget model with a daily computation interval was developed and used to estimate the spatial distribution of recharge on Maui for average climate conditions (1978–2007 rainfall and 2010 land cover) and for drought conditions (1998–2002 rainfall and 2010 land cover). For average climate conditions, mean annual recharge for Maui is 1,340 million gallons per day, or about 45 percent of precipitation (rainfall and fog interception). Recharge for average climate conditions is about 40 percent of total water inflow consisting of precipitation, irrigation, septic leachate, and seepage from reservoirs and cesspools. Most recharge occurs on the wet, windward slopes of Haleakalā and on the wet, uplands of West Maui Mountain. Dry, coastal areas generally have low recharge. In the dry isthmus, however, irrigated fields have greater recharge than nearby unirrigated areas. For drought conditions, mean annual recharge for Maui is about 1,035 million gallons per day, which is 23 percent less than recharge for average climate conditions. For individual aquifer-system areas used for groundwater management, recharge for drought conditions is about 8 to 51 percent less than recharge for average climate conditions. The spatial distribution of rainfall is the primary factor determining spatially distributed recharge estimates for most areas on Maui. In wet areas, recharge estimates are also sensitive to water-budget parameters that are related to runoff, fog interception, and forest-canopy evaporation. In dry areas, recharge estimates are most sensitive to irrigated crop areas and parameters related to evapotranspiration.

  11. A Comparison of Model-Data Fit for Parametric and Nonparametric Item Response Theory Models Using Ordinal-Level Ratings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dyehouse, Melissa A.

    2009-01-01

    This study compared the model-data fit of a parametric item response theory (PIRT) model to a nonparametric item response theory (NIRT) model to determine the best-fitting model for use with ordinal-level alternate assessment ratings. The PIRT Generalized Graded Unfolding Model (GGUM) was compared to the NIRT Mokken model. Chi-square statistics…

  12. Dynamic energy budget as a basis to model population-level effects of zinc-spiked sediments in the gastropod Valvata piscinalis.

    PubMed

    Ducrot, Virginie; Péry, Alexandre R R; Mons, Raphaël; Quéau, Hervé; Charles, Sandrine; Garric, Jeanne

    2007-08-01

    This paper presents original toxicity test designs and mathematical models that may be used to assess the deleterious effects of toxicants on Valvata piscinalis (Mollusca, Gastropoda). Results obtained for zinc, used as a reference toxicant, are presented. The feeding behavior, juvenile survival, growth, age at puberty, onset of reproduction, number of breedings during the life cycle, and fecundity were significantly altered when the snails were exposed to zinc-spiked sediments. Dynamic energy budget models (DEBtox) adequately predicted the effects of zinc on the V. piscinalis life cycle. They also provided estimates for lifecycle parameters that were used to parameterize a demographic model, based on a Z-transformed life-cycle graph. The effect threshold for the population growth rate (lambda) was estimated at 259 mg/kg dry sediment of zinc, showing that significant changes in abundance may occur at environmental concentrations. Significant effects occurring just above this threshold value were mainly caused by the severe impairment of reproductive endpoints. Sensitivity analysis showed that the value of lambda depended mainly on the juvenile survival rate. The impairment of this latter parameter may result in extinction of V. piscinalis. Finally, the present study highlights advantages of the proposed modeling approach in V. piscinalis and possible transfer to other test species and contaminants.

  13. Corvid re-caching without 'theory of mind': a model.

    PubMed

    van der Vaart, Elske; Verbrugge, Rineke; Hemelrijk, Charlotte K

    2012-01-01

    Scrub jays are thought to use many tactics to protect their caches. For instance, they predominantly bury food far away from conspecifics, and if they must cache while being watched, they often re-cache their worms later, once they are in private. Two explanations have been offered for such observations, and they are intensely debated. First, the birds may reason about their competitors' mental states, with a 'theory of mind'; alternatively, they may apply behavioral rules learned in daily life. Although this second hypothesis is cognitively simpler, it does seem to require a different, ad-hoc behavioral rule for every caching and re-caching pattern exhibited by the birds. Our new theory avoids this drawback by explaining a large variety of patterns as side-effects of stress and the resulting memory errors. Inspired by experimental data, we assume that re-caching is not motivated by a deliberate effort to safeguard specific caches from theft, but by a general desire to cache more. This desire is brought on by stress, which is determined by the presence and dominance of onlookers, and by unsuccessful recovery attempts. We study this theory in two experiments similar to those done with real birds with a kind of 'virtual bird', whose behavior depends on a set of basic assumptions about corvid cognition, and a well-established model of human memory. Our results show that the 'virtual bird' acts as the real birds did; its re-caching reflects whether it has been watched, how dominant its onlooker was, and how close to that onlooker it has cached. This happens even though it cannot attribute mental states, and it has only a single behavioral rule assumed to be previously learned. Thus, our simulations indicate that corvid re-caching can be explained without sophisticated social cognition. Given our specific predictions, our theory can easily be tested empirically. PMID:22396799

  14. A mercury transport and fate model (LM2-mercury) for mass budget assessment of mercury cycling in Lake Michigan

    EPA Science Inventory

    LM2-Mercury, a mercury mass balance model, was developed to simulate and evaluate the transport, fate, and biogeochemical transformations of mercury in Lake Michigan. The model simulates total suspended solids (TSS), disolved organic carbon (DOC), and total, elemental, divalent, ...

  15. Applications of Information Theory for Ecohydrology Model Diagnostics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruddell, B. L.; Drewry, D.

    2013-12-01

    Earth System Models are becoming more complicated and complex as detailed formulations of physical and biological processes operating at multiple scales are integrated together to simulate the connections and feedbacks of the whole system. A prime example of this increase in process fidelity is the terrestrial land surface, where meteorological and hydrological processes drive and interact with the biological functioning of vegetation, together controlling carbon, water, and energy fluxes with the atmosphere. Ecohydrological models that capture these couplings and feedbacks may intentionally or unintentionally create self-organizing or "emergent" dynamics that do not exist when a single model component is used in isolation. It is therefore critical that model diagnostics begin to directly inspect model output for its fidelity to emergent system-scale patterns including observed couplings, feedbacks, thresholds, and controls. Information Theory provides a general class of methods that are able to directly measure coupling, control, and feedback. We apply these methods to compare observations and model results in the context of the Midwest US agro-ecosystem. We utilize a state-of-the-art ecohydrological model, MLCan, which has been extensively validated against eddy covariance observations of carbon, water and energy exchange collected at the Bondville, Illinois FLUXNET site. Using a dynamical process network approach in which system couplings are resolved as directional information flows, we show that MLCan does well at reproducing observed system-scale couplings, feedbacks, thresholds, and controls. We identify important exceptions that point to necessary model improvements. By applying these methods in addition to the standard residual error analysis, it is possible to move beyond asking whether an Earth System Model gets the "right answers", and to instead examine whether the model captures the emergent system-scale structures necessary to be correct for the

  16. Modeling the Pineapple Express phenomenon via Multivariate Extreme Value Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weller, G.; Cooley, D. S.

    2011-12-01

    The pineapple express (PE) phenomenon is responsible for producing extreme winter precipitation events in the coastal and mountainous regions of the western United States. Because the PE phenomenon is also associated with warm temperatures, the heavy precipitation and associated snowmelt can cause destructive flooding. In order to study impacts, it is important that regional climate models from NARCCAP are able to reproduce extreme precipitation events produced by PE. We define a daily precipitation quantity which captures the spatial extent and intensity of precipitation events produced by the PE phenomenon. We then use statistical extreme value theory to model the tail dependence of this quantity as seen in an observational data set and each of the six NARCCAP regional models driven by NCEP reanalysis. We find that most NCEP-driven NARCCAP models do exhibit tail dependence between daily model output and observations. Furthermore, we find that not all extreme precipitation events are pineapple express events, as identified by Dettinger et al. (2011). The synoptic-scale atmospheric processes that drive extreme precipitation events produced by PE have only recently begun to be examined. Much of the current work has focused on pattern recognition, rather than quantitative analysis. We use daily mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) fields from NCEP to develop a "pineapple express index" for extreme precipitation, which exhibits tail dependence with our observed precipitation quantity for pineapple express events. We build a statistical model that connects daily precipitation output from the WRFG model, daily MSLP fields from NCEP, and daily observed precipitation in the western US. Finally, we use this model to simulate future observed precipitation based on WRFG output driven by the CCSM model, and our pineapple express index derived from future CCSM output. Our aim is to use this model to develop a better understanding of the frequency and intensity of extreme

  17. Modeling the impact of tropical mesoscale convective systems on Sahelian mineral dust budget: a case study during AMMA SOPs 1-2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouet, C.; Cautenet, G.; Marticorena, B.; Bergametti, G.; Chatenet, B.; Rajot, J.-L.; Descroix, L.

    2009-04-01

    Tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a prominent feature of the African meteorology. A continuous monitoring of the aeolian activity in an experimental site located in Niger showed that such events are responsible for the major part of the annual local wind erosion, i.e. for most of the Sahelian dust emission [Rajot, 2001]. However, the net effect of these MCSs on mineral dust budget has to be estimated: on the one hand, these systems produce extremely high surface wind velocities leading to intense dust uptake, but on the other hand, rainfalls associated with these systems can efficiently remove the emitted dust from the atmosphere. High resolution modeling of MCSs appears as the most relevant approach to assess the budget between dust emission and deposition in such local meteorological systems. As a first step, in order to properly estimate dust emissions, it is necessary to accurately describe the surface wind fields at the local scale. Indeed, dust emission is a threshold phenomenon that depends on the third power of surface wind velocity. This study focuses on a case study of dust emission associated with the passage of a MCS observed during one of the intensive observation period of the international African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA - SOPs 1-2) program. The simulations were made using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) coupled online with the dust production model (DPM) developed by Marticorena and Bergametti [1995] and recently improved by Laurent et al. [2008] for Africa. Two horizontal resolutions were tested (5 km and 2.5 km) as well as two microphysical schemes (a 1-moment scheme [Walko et al., 1995] and a 2-moment scheme [Meyers et al., 1997]). The use of the two convective parameterizations now available in the version 6 of RAMS (Kuo [1995] modified by Molinari [1985] and Molinari and Corsetti [1985], and Kain and Fritsch [1992; 1993]) to simulate cloud convection was also tested. Sensitivity tests have been

  18. The Model-Based View of Scientific Theories and the Structuring of School Science Programmes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Develaki, Maria

    2007-01-01

    Model theory in contemporary philosophy of science interprets scientific theories as sets of models, and contributes significantly to the understanding of the relation between theories, models, and the real world. The clarification of this relation is fundamental for the understanding of the nature of scientific methods and scientific knowledge…

  19. The Interface Between Theory and Data in Structural Equation Models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grace, James B.; Bollen, Kenneth A.

    2006-01-01

    Structural equation modeling (SEM) holds the promise of providing natural scientists the capacity to evaluate complex multivariate hypotheses about ecological systems. Building on its predecessors, path analysis and factor analysis, SEM allows for the incorporation of both observed and unobserved (latent) variables into theoretically based probabilistic models. In this paper we discuss the interface between theory and data in SEM and the use of an additional variable type, the composite, for representing general concepts. In simple terms, composite variables specify the influences of collections of other variables and can be helpful in modeling general relationships of the sort commonly of interest to ecologists. While long recognized as a potentially important element of SEM, composite variables have received very limited use, in part because of a lack of theoretical consideration, but also because of difficulties that arise in parameter estimation when using conventional solution procedures. In this paper we present a framework for discussing composites and demonstrate how the use of partially reduced form models can help to overcome some of the parameter estimation and evaluation problems associated with models containing composites. Diagnostic procedures for evaluating the most appropriate and effective use of composites are illustrated with an example from the ecological literature. It is argued that an ability to incorporate composite variables into structural equation models may be particularly valuable in the study of natural systems, where concepts are frequently multifaceted and the influences of suites of variables are often of interest.

  20. Reconsideration of r/K Selection Theory Using Stochastic Control Theory and Nonlinear Structured Population Models.

    PubMed

    Oizumi, Ryo; Kuniya, Toshikazu; Enatsu, Yoichi

    2016-01-01

    Despite the fact that density effects and individual differences in life history are considered to be important for evolution, these factors lead to several difficulties in understanding the evolution of life history, especially when population sizes reach the carrying capacity. r/K selection theory explains what types of life strategies evolve in the presence of density effects and individual differences. However, the relationship between the life schedules of individuals and population size is still unclear, even if the theory can classify life strategies appropriately. To address this issue, we propose a few equations on adaptive life strategies in r/K selection where density effects are absent or present. The equations detail not only the adaptive life history but also the population dynamics. Furthermore, the equations can incorporate temporal individual differences, which are referred to as internal stochasticity. Our framework reveals that maximizing density effects is an evolutionarily stable strategy related to the carrying capacity. A significant consequence of our analysis is that adaptive strategies in both selections maximize an identical function, providing both population growth rate and carrying capacity. We apply our method to an optimal foraging problem in a semelparous species model and demonstrate that the adaptive strategy yields a lower intrinsic growth rate as well as a lower basic reproductive number than those obtained with other strategies. This study proposes that the diversity of life strategies arises due to the effects of density and internal stochasticity. PMID:27336169

  1. Reconsideration of r/K Selection Theory Using Stochastic Control Theory and Nonlinear Structured Population Models

    PubMed Central

    Oizumi, Ryo; Kuniya, Toshikazu; Enatsu, Yoichi

    2016-01-01

    Despite the fact that density effects and individual differences in life history are considered to be important for evolution, these factors lead to several difficulties in understanding the evolution of life history, especially when population sizes reach the carrying capacity. r/K selection theory explains what types of life strategies evolve in the presence of density effects and individual differences. However, the relationship between the life schedules of individuals and population size is still unclear, even if the theory can classify life strategies appropriately. To address this issue, we propose a few equations on adaptive life strategies in r/K selection where density effects are absent or present. The equations detail not only the adaptive life history but also the population dynamics. Furthermore, the equations can incorporate temporal individual differences, which are referred to as internal stochasticity. Our framework reveals that maximizing density effects is an evolutionarily stable strategy related to the carrying capacity. A significant consequence of our analysis is that adaptive strategies in both selections maximize an identical function, providing both population growth rate and carrying capacity. We apply our method to an optimal foraging problem in a semelparous species model and demonstrate that the adaptive strategy yields a lower intrinsic growth rate as well as a lower basic reproductive number than those obtained with other strategies. This study proposes that the diversity of life strategies arises due to the effects of density and internal stochasticity. PMID:27336169

  2. Modelling the growth of white seabream (Diplodus sargus) and gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata) in semi-intensive earth production ponds using the Dynamic Energy Budget approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serpa, Dalila; Ferreira, Pedro Pousão; Ferreira, Hugo; da Fonseca, Luís Cancela; Dinis, Maria Teresa; Duarte, Pedro

    2013-02-01

    Fish growth models may help understanding the influence of environmental, physiological and husbandry factors on fish production, providing crucial information to maximize the growth rates of cultivated species. The main objectives of this work were to: i) develop and implement an Individual Based Model using a Dynamic Energy Budget (IBM-DEB) approach to simulate the growth of two commercially important Sparidae species in semi-intensive earth ponds, the white seabream which is considered as a potential candidate for Mediterranean aquaculture and the gilthead seabream that has been cultivated since the early 80s; ii) evaluate which model parameters are more likely to affect fish performance, and iii) investigate which parameters might account for growth differences between the cultivated species. The model may be run in two modes: the "state variable" mode, in which an average fish is simulated with a particular parameter set and the "Individual Based Model" (IBM) mode that simulates a population of n fishes, each with its specific parameter set assigned randomly. The IBM mode has the advantage of allowing a quick model calibration and an evaluation of the parameter sets that produce the best fit between predicted and observed fish growth. Results revealed that the model reproduces reasonably well the growth of the two seabreams. Fish performance was mainly affected by parameters related to feed ingestion/assimilation and reserves utilization, suggesting that special attention should be taken in the estimation of these parameters when applying the model to other species. Comparing the DEB parameters set of the two sparids it seems that the white seabream's low growth rates are a result of higher maintenance costs and a lower feed assimilation efficiency. Hence, the development of new feed formulations may be crucial for the success of white seabream production in semi-intensive earth ponds.

  3. The JGrass-NewAge system for forecasting and managing the hydrological budgets at the basin scale: the models of flow generation, propagation, and aggregation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Formetta, G.; Mantilla, R.; Franceschi, S.; Antonello, A.; Rigon, R.

    2011-04-01

    This paper presents a discussion of the predictive capacity of the first implementation of the semi-distributed hydrological modeling system JGrass-NewAge. This model focuses on the hydrological balance of medium scale to large scale basins, and considers statistics of the processes at the hillslope scale. The whole modeling system consists of six main parts: (i) estimation of energy balance; (ii) estimation of evapotranspiration; (iii) snow modelling; (iv) estimation of runoff production; (v) aggregation and propagation of flows in channel, and (vi) description of intakes, out-takes, and reservoirs. This paper details the processes, of runoff production, and aggregation/propagation of flows on a river network. The system is based on a hillslope-link geometrical partition of the landscape, so the basic unit, where the budget is evaluated, consists of hillslopes that drain into a single associated link rather than cells or pixels. To this conceptual partition corresponds an implementation of informatics that uses vectorial features for channels, and raster data for hillslopes. Runoff production at each channel link is estimated through a combination of the Duffy (1996) model and a GIUH model for estimating residence times in hillslope. Routing in channels uses equations integrated for any channels' link, and produces discharges at any link end, for any link in the river network. The model has been tested against measured discharges according to some indexes of goodness of fit such as RMSE and Nash Sutcliffe. The characteristic ability to reproduce discharge in any point of the river network is used to infer some statistics, and notably, the scaling properties of the modeled discharge.

  4. Budget Constraints Affect Male Rats' Choices between Differently Priced Commodities.

    PubMed

    van Wingerden, Marijn; Marx, Christine; Kalenscher, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Demand theory can be applied to analyse how a human or animal consumer changes her selection of commodities within a certain budget in response to changes in price of those commodities. This change in consumption assessed over a range of prices is defined as demand elasticity. Previously, income-compensated and income-uncompensated price changes have been investigated using human and animal consumers, as demand theory predicts different elasticities for both conditions. However, in these studies, demand elasticity was only evaluated over the entirety of choices made from a budget. As compensating budgets changes the number of attainable commodities relative to uncompensated conditions, and thus the number of choices, it remained unclear whether budget compensation has a trivial effect on demand elasticity by simply sampling from a different total number of choices or has a direct effect on consumers' sequential choice structure. If the budget context independently changes choices between commodities over and above price effects, this should become apparent when demand elasticity is assessed over choice sets of any reasonable size that are matched in choice opportunities between budget conditions. To gain more detailed insight in the sequential choice dynamics underlying differences in demand elasticity between budget conditions, we trained N=8 rat consumers to spend a daily budget by making a number of nosepokes to obtain two liquid commodities under different price regimes, in sessions with and without budget compensation. We confirmed that demand elasticity for both commodities differed between compensated and uncompensated budget conditions, also when the number of choices considered was matched, and showed that these elasticity differences emerge early in the sessions. These differences in demand elasticity were driven by a higher choice rate and an increased reselection bias for the preferred commodity in compensated compared to uncompensated budget conditions

  5. Budget Constraints Affect Male Rats’ Choices between Differently Priced Commodities

    PubMed Central

    Kalenscher, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Demand theory can be applied to analyse how a human or animal consumer changes her selection of commodities within a certain budget in response to changes in price of those commodities. This change in consumption assessed over a range of prices is defined as demand elasticity. Previously, income-compensated and income-uncompensated price changes have been investigated using human and animal consumers, as demand theory predicts different elasticities for both conditions. However, in these studies, demand elasticity was only evaluated over the entirety of choices made from a budget. As compensating budgets changes the number of attainable commodities relative to uncompensated conditions, and thus the number of choices, it remained unclear whether budget compensation has a trivial effect on demand elasticity by simply sampling from a different total number of choices or has a direct effect on consumers’ sequential choice structure. If the budget context independently changes choices between commodities over and above price effects, this should become apparent when demand elasticity is assessed over choice sets of any reasonable size that are matched in choice opportunities between budget conditions. To gain more detailed insight in the sequential choice dynamics underlying differences in demand elasticity between budget conditions, we trained N=8 rat consumers to spend a daily budget by making a number of nosepokes to obtain two liquid commodities under different price regimes, in sessions with and without budget compensation. We confirmed that demand elasticity for both commodities differed between compensated and uncompensated budget conditions, also when the number of choices considered was matched, and showed that these elasticity differences emerge early in the sessions. These differences in demand elasticity were driven by a higher choice rate and an increased reselection bias for the preferred commodity in compensated compared to uncompensated budget

  6. PREFACE: Theory, Modelling and Computational methods for Semiconductors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Migliorato, Max; Probert, Matt

    2010-04-01

    These conference proceedings contain the written papers of the contributions presented at the 2nd International Conference on: Theory, Modelling and Computational methods for Semiconductors. The conference was held at the St Williams College, York, UK on 13th-15th Jan 2010. The previous conference in this series took place in 2008 at the University of Manchester, UK. The scope of this conference embraces modelling, theory and the use of sophisticated computational tools in Semiconductor science and technology, where there is a substantial potential for time saving in R&D. The development of high speed computer architectures is finally allowing the routine use of accurate methods for calculating the structural, thermodynamic, vibrational and electronic properties of semiconductors and their heterostructures. This workshop ran for three days, with the objective of bringing together UK and international leading experts in the field of theory of group IV, III-V and II-VI semiconductors together with postdocs and students in the early stages of their careers. The first day focused on providing an introduction and overview of this vast field, aimed particularly at students at this influential point in their careers. We would like to thank all participants for their contribution to the conference programme and these proceedings. We would also like to acknowledge the financial support from the Institute of Physics (Computational Physics group and Semiconductor Physics group), the UK Car-Parrinello Consortium, Accelrys (distributors of Materials Studio) and Quantumwise (distributors of Atomistix). The Editors Acknowledgements Conference Organising Committee: Dr Matt Probert (University of York) and Dr Max Migliorato (University of Manchester) Programme Committee: Dr Marco Califano (University of Leeds), Dr Jacob Gavartin (Accelrys Ltd, Cambridge), Dr Stanko Tomic (STFC Daresbury Laboratory), Dr Gabi Slavcheva (Imperial College London) Proceedings edited and compiled by Dr

  7. Standard Model in multiscale theories and observational constraints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calcagni, Gianluca; Nardelli, Giuseppe; Rodríguez-Fernández, David

    2016-08-01

    We construct and analyze the Standard Model of electroweak and strong interactions in multiscale spacetimes with (i) weighted derivatives and (ii) q -derivatives. Both theories can be formulated in two different frames, called fractional and integer picture. By definition, the fractional picture is where physical predictions should be made. (i) In the theory with weighted derivatives, it is shown that gauge invariance and the requirement of having constant masses in all reference frames make the Standard Model in the integer picture indistinguishable from the ordinary one. Experiments involving only weak and strong forces are insensitive to a change of spacetime dimensionality also in the fractional picture, and only the electromagnetic and gravitational sectors can break the degeneracy. For the simplest multiscale measures with only one characteristic time, length and energy scale t*, ℓ* and E*, we compute the Lamb shift in the hydrogen atom and constrain the multiscale correction to the ordinary result, getting the absolute upper bound t*<10-23 s . For the natural choice α0=1 /2 of the fractional exponent in the measure, this bound is strengthened to t*<10-29 s , corresponding to ℓ*<10-20 m and E*>28 TeV . Stronger bounds are obtained from the measurement of the fine-structure constant. (ii) In the theory with q -derivatives, considering the muon decay rate and the Lamb shift in light atoms, we obtain the independent absolute upper bounds t*<10-13 s and E*>35 MeV . For α0=1 /2 , the Lamb shift alone yields t*<10-27 s , ℓ*<10-19 m and E*>450 GeV .

  8. Using energetic budgets to assess the effects of environmental stress on corals: are we measuring the right things?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lesser, M. P.

    2013-03-01

    Historically, the response of marine invertebrates to their environment, and environmentally induced stress, has included some measurement of their physiology or metabolism. Eventually, this approach developed into comparative energetics and the construction of energetic budgets. More recently, coral reefs, and scleractinian corals in particular, have suffered significant declines due to climate change-related environmental stress. In addition to a number of physiological, biophysical and molecular measurements to assess "coral health," there has been increased use of energetic approaches that have included the measurement of specific biochemical constituents (i.e., lipid concentrations) as a proxy for energy available to assess the potential outcomes of environmental stress on corals. In reading these studies, there appears to be some confusion between energy budgets and carbon budgets. Additionally, many assumptions regarding proximate biochemical composition, metabolic fuel preferences and metabolic quotients have been made, all of which are essential to construct accurate energy budgets and to convert elemental composition (i.e., carbon) to energy equivalents. Additionally, models of energetics such as the metabolic theory of ecology or dynamic energy budgets are being applied to coral physiology and include several assumptions that are not appropriate for scleractinian corals. As we assess the independent and interactive effects of multiple stressors on corals, efforts to construct quantitative energetic budgets should be a priority component of realistic multifactor experiments that would then improve the use of models as predictors of outcomes related to the effects of environmental change on corals.

  9. Fuzzy structure theory modeling of sound-insulation layers in complex vibroacoustic uncertain systems: theory and experimental validation.

    PubMed

    Fernandez, Charles; Soize, Christian; Gagliardini, Laurent

    2009-01-01

    The fuzzy structure theory was introduced 20 years ago in order to model the effects of complex subsystems imprecisely known on a master structure. This theory was only aimed at structural dynamics. In this paper, an extension of that theory is proposed in developing an elastoacoustic element useful to model sound-insulation layers for computational vibroacoustics of complex systems. The simplified model constructed enhances computation time and memory allocation because the number of physical and generalized degrees of freedom in the computational vibroacoustic model is not increased. However, these simplifications introduce model uncertainties. In order to take into account these uncertainties, the nonparametric probabilistic approach recently introduced is used. A robust simplified model for sound-insulation layers is then obtained. This model is controlled by a small number of physical and dispersion parameters. First, the extension of the fuzzy structure theory to elastoacoustic element is presented. Second, the computational vibroacoustic model including such an elastoacoustic element to model sound-insulation layer is given. Then, a design methodology to identify the model parameters with experiments is proposed and is experimentally validated. Finally, the theory is applied to an uncertain vibroacoustic system. PMID:19173401

  10. Capacity theory as a model of cortical behavior.

    PubMed

    Handy, T C

    2000-11-01

    Growing evidence suggests that a more complete understanding of cortical function requires developing cognitive models that are predictive of multivariate neural behavior (e.g., Raichle, 2000; Shulman et al., 1997). Towards this end, one approach is to interpret population-specific activity in cortex from the perspective of capacity theories of selective attention (e.g., Handy, Hopfinger, & Mangun, in press). In brief, the model is founded on the ideas that (1) processing capacity is limited and (2) different processes may draw on different capacities (e.g., Boles & Law 1998; Polson & Friedman, 1988; see Kramer & Spinks, 1991). Testable hypotheses are then based on whether manipulations of process-specific load will lead to negative or positive covariation between different function-related clusters of activation in cortex--the predicted pattern depends on whether or not the clusters in question are assumed to share a common processing capacity. Expanding on these ideas, the current article addresses several recent issues that have arisen in the effort to apply capacity theory to the study of cortical function. PMID:11177425

  11. Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory.

    PubMed

    Merrick, Jason R W; Leclerc, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Counterterrorism decisions have been an intense area of research in recent years. Both decision analysis and game theory have been used to model such decisions, and more recently approaches have been developed that combine the techniques of the two disciplines. However, each of these approaches assumes that the attacker is maximizing its utility. Experimental research shows that human beings do not make decisions by maximizing expected utility without aid, but instead deviate in specific ways such as loss aversion or likelihood insensitivity. In this article, we modify existing methods for counterterrorism decisions. We keep expected utility as the defender's paradigm to seek for the rational decision, but we use prospect theory to solve for the attacker's decision to descriptively model the attacker's loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity. We study the effects of this approach in a critical decision, whether to screen containers entering the United States for radioactive materials. We find that the defender's optimal decision is sensitive to the attacker's levels of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity, meaning that understanding such descriptive decision effects is important in making such decisions.

  12. Pluralistic and stochastic gene regulation: examples, models and consistent theory

    PubMed Central

    Salas, Elisa N.; Shu, Jiang; Cserhati, Matyas F.; Weeks, Donald P.; Ladunga, Istvan

    2016-01-01

    We present a theory of pluralistic and stochastic gene regulation. To bridge the gap between empirical studies and mathematical models, we integrate pre-existing observations with our meta-analyses of the ENCODE ChIP-Seq experiments. Earlier evidence includes fluctuations in levels, location, activity, and binding of transcription factors, variable DNA motifs, and bursts in gene expression. Stochastic regulation is also indicated by frequently subdued effects of knockout mutants of regulators, their evolutionary losses/gains and massive rewiring of regulatory sites. We report wide-spread pluralistic regulation in ≈800 000 tightly co-expressed pairs of diverse human genes. Typically, half of ≈50 observed regulators bind to both genes reproducibly, twice more than in independently expressed gene pairs. We also examine the largest set of co-expressed genes, which code for cytoplasmic ribosomal proteins. Numerous regulatory complexes are highly significant enriched in ribosomal genes compared to highly expressed non-ribosomal genes. We could not find any DNA-associated, strict sense master regulator. Despite major fluctuations in transcription factor binding, our machine learning model accurately predicted transcript levels using binding sites of 20+ regulators. Our pluralistic and stochastic theory is consistent with partially random binding patterns, redundancy, stochastic regulator binding, burst-like expression, degeneracy of binding motifs and massive regulatory rewiring during evolution. PMID:26823500

  13. Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory.

    PubMed

    Merrick, Jason R W; Leclerc, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Counterterrorism decisions have been an intense area of research in recent years. Both decision analysis and game theory have been used to model such decisions, and more recently approaches have been developed that combine the techniques of the two disciplines. However, each of these approaches assumes that the attacker is maximizing its utility. Experimental research shows that human beings do not make decisions by maximizing expected utility without aid, but instead deviate in specific ways such as loss aversion or likelihood insensitivity. In this article, we modify existing methods for counterterrorism decisions. We keep expected utility as the defender's paradigm to seek for the rational decision, but we use prospect theory to solve for the attacker's decision to descriptively model the attacker's loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity. We study the effects of this approach in a critical decision, whether to screen containers entering the United States for radioactive materials. We find that the defender's optimal decision is sensitive to the attacker's levels of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity, meaning that understanding such descriptive decision effects is important in making such decisions. PMID:25039254

  14. Theory and Modeling for the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hesse, M.; Aunai, N.; Birn, J.; Cassak, P.; Denton, R. E.; Drake, J. F.; Gombosi, T.; Hoshino, M.; Matthaeus, W.; Sibeck, D.; Zenitani, S.

    2016-03-01

    The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission will provide measurement capabilities, which will exceed those of earlier and even contemporary missions by orders of magnitude. MMS will, for the first time, be able to measure directly and with sufficient resolution key features of the magnetic reconnection process, down to the critical electron scales, which need to be resolved to understand how reconnection works. Owing to the complexity and extremely high spatial resolution required, no prior measurements exist, which could be employed to guide the definition of measurement requirements, and consequently set essential parameters for mission planning and execution. Insight into expected details of the reconnection process could hence only been obtained from theory and modern kinetic modeling. This situation was recognized early on by MMS leadership, which supported the formation of a fully integrated Theory and Modeling Team (TMT). The TMT participated in all aspects of mission planning, from the proposal stage to individual aspects of instrument performance characteristics. It provided and continues to provide to the mission the latest insights regarding the kinetic physics of magnetic reconnection, as well as associated particle acceleration and turbulence, assuring that, to the best of modern knowledge, the mission is prepared to resolve the inner workings of the magnetic reconnection process. The present paper provides a summary of key recent results or reconnection research by TMT members.

  15. Pluralistic and stochastic gene regulation: examples, models and consistent theory.

    PubMed

    Salas, Elisa N; Shu, Jiang; Cserhati, Matyas F; Weeks, Donald P; Ladunga, Istvan

    2016-06-01

    We present a theory of pluralistic and stochastic gene regulation. To bridge the gap between empirical studies and mathematical models, we integrate pre-existing observations with our meta-analyses of the ENCODE ChIP-Seq experiments. Earlier evidence includes fluctuations in levels, location, activity, and binding of transcription factors, variable DNA motifs, and bursts in gene expression. Stochastic regulation is also indicated by frequently subdued effects of knockout mutants of regulators, their evolutionary losses/gains and massive rewiring of regulatory sites. We report wide-spread pluralistic regulation in ≈800 000 tightly co-expressed pairs of diverse human genes. Typically, half of ≈50 observed regulators bind to both genes reproducibly, twice more than in independently expressed gene pairs. We also examine the largest set of co-expressed genes, which code for cytoplasmic ribosomal proteins. Numerous regulatory complexes are highly significant enriched in ribosomal genes compared to highly expressed non-ribosomal genes. We could not find any DNA-associated, strict sense master regulator. Despite major fluctuations in transcription factor binding, our machine learning model accurately predicted transcript levels using binding sites of 20+ regulators. Our pluralistic and stochastic theory is consistent with partially random binding patterns, redundancy, stochastic regulator binding, burst-like expression, degeneracy of binding motifs and massive regulatory rewiring during evolution.

  16. Studying the impact of overshooting convection on the tropopause tropical layer (TTL) water vapor budget at the continental scale using a mesoscale model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behera, Abhinna; Rivière, Emmanuel; Marécal, Virginie; Claud, Chantal; Rysman, Jean-François; Geneviève, Seze

    2016-04-01

    Water vapour budget is a key component in the earth climate system. In the tropical upper troposphere, lower stratosphere (UTLS), it plays a central role both on the radiative and the chemical budget. Its abundance is mostly driven by slow ascent above the net zero radiative heating level followed by ice crystals' formation and sedimentation, so called the cold trap. In contrast to this large scale temperature driven process, overshooting convection penetrating the stratosphere could be one piece of the puzzle. It has been proven to hydrate the lower stratosphere at the local scale. Satellite-borne H2O instruments can not measure with a fine enough resolution the water vapour enhancements caused by overshooting convection. The consequence is that it is difficult to estimate the role of overshooting deep convection at the global scale. Using a mesoscale model i.e., Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (BRAMS), past atmospheric conditions have been simulated for the full wet season i.e., Nov 2012 to Mar 2013 having a single grid with horizontal resolution of 20 km × 20km over a large part of Brazil and South America. This resolution is too coarse to reproduce overshooting convection in the model, so that this simulation should be used as a reference (REF) simulation, without the impact of overshooting convection in the TTL water budget. For initialisation, as well as nudging the grid boundary in every 6 hours, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses has been used. The size distribution of hydrometeors and number of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are fitted in order to best reproduce accumulated precipitations derived from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Similarly, GOES and MSG IR mages have been thoroughly compared with model's outputs, using image correlation statistics for the position of the clouds. The model H2O variability during the wet season, is compared with the in situ balloon-borne measurements during

  17. Forecasting carbon budget under climate change and CO2 fertilization for subtropical region in China using integrated biosphere simulator (IBIS) model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Peng, C.; Fang, X.; Yu, S.; Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Ju, W.

    2011-01-01

    The regional carbon budget of the climatic transition zone may be very sensitive to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This study simulated the carbon cycles under these changes using process-based ecosystem models. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP), and the vegetation structure of terrestrial ecosystems in Zhejiang province (area 101,800 km2, mainly covered by subtropical evergreen forest and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest) which is located in the subtropical climate area of China. Two general circulation models (HADCM3 and CGCM3) representing four IPCC climate change scenarios (HC3AA, HC3GG, CGCM-sresa2, and CGCM-sresb1) were used as climate inputs for IBIS. Results show that simulated historical biomass and NPP are consistent with field and other modelled data, which makes the analysis of future carbon budget reliable. The results indicate that NPP over the entire Zhejiang province was about 55 Mt C yr-1 during the last half of the 21st century. An NPP increase of about 24 Mt C by the end of the 21st century was estimated with the combined effects of increasing CO2 and climate change. A slight NPP increase of about 5 Mt C was estimated under the climate change alone scenario. Forests in Zhejiang are currently acting as a carbon sink with an average NEP of about 2.5 Mt C yr-1. NEP will increase to about 5 Mt C yr-1 by the end of the 21st century with the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. However, climate change alone will reduce the forest carbon sequestration of Zhejiang's forests. Future climate warming will substantially change the vegetation cover types; warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest will be gradually substituted by subtropical evergreen forest. An increasing CO2 concentration will have little

  18. Forecasting carbon budget under climate change and CO 2 fertilization for subtropical region in China using integrated biosphere simulator (IBIS) model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Peng, C.; Fang, X.; Yu, S.; Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Ju, W.

    2011-01-01

    The regional carbon budget of the climatic transition zone may be very sensitive to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. This study simulated the carbon cycles under these changes using process-based ecosystem models. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and CO 2 fertilization on net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP), and the vegetation structure of terrestrial ecosystems in Zhejiang province (area 101,800 km 2, mainly covered by subtropical evergreen forest and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest) which is located in the subtropical climate area of China. Two general circulation models (HADCM3 and CGCM3) representing four IPCC climate change scenarios (HC3AA, HC3GG, CGCM-sresa2, and CGCM-sresb1) were used as climate inputs for IBIS. Results show that simulated historical biomass and NPP are consistent with field and other modelled data, which makes the analysis of future carbon budget reliable. The results indicate that NPP over the entire Zhejiang province was about 55 Mt C yr -1 during the last half of the 21 st century. An NPP increase of about 24 Mt C by the end of the 21 st century was estimated with the combined effects of increasing CO 2 and climate change. A slight NPP increase of about 5 Mt C was estimated under the climate change alone scenario. Forests in Zhejiang are currently acting as a carbon sink with an average NEP of about 2.5 Mt C yr -1. NEP will increase to about 5 Mt C yr -1 by the end of the 21 st century with the increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration and climate change. However, climate change alone will reduce the forest carbon sequestration of Zhejiang's forests. Future climate warming will substantially change the vegetation cover types; warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest will be gradually substituted by subtropical evergreen forest. An increasing CO 2 concentration will have

  19. A spatial implementation of the BIOME-BGC to model grassland GPP production and water budgets in the Ecuadorian Andean Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minaya, Veronica; Corzo, Gerald; van der Kwast, Johannes; Mynett, Arthur

    2016-04-01

    Many terrestrial biogeochemistry process models have been applied around the world at different scales and for a large range of ecosystems. Grasslands, and in particular the ones located in the Andean Region are essential ecosystems that sustain important ecological processes; however, just a few efforts have been made to estimate the gross primary production (GPP) and the hydrological budgets for this specific ecosystem along an altitudinal gradient. A previous study, which is one of the few available in the region, considered the heterogeneity of the main properties of the páramo vegetation and showed significant differences in plant functional types, site/soil parameters and daily meteorology. This study extends the work above mentioned and uses spatio-temporal analysis of the BIOME-BGC model results. This was done to simulate the GPP and the water fluxes in space and time, by applying altitudinal analysis. The catchment located at the southwestern slope of the Antisana volcano in Ecuador was selected as a representative area of the Andean páramos and its hydrological importance as one of the main sources of a water supply reservoir in the region. An accurate estimation of temporal changes in GPP in the region is important for carbon budget assessments, evaluation of the impact of climate change and biomass productivity. This complex and yet interesting problem was integrated by the ecosystem process model BIOME-BGC, the results were evaluated and associated to the land cover map where the growth forms of vegetation were identified. The responses of GPP and the water fluxes were not only dependent on the environmental drivers but also on the ecophysiology and the site specific parameters. The model estimated that the GPP at lower elevations doubles the amount estimated at higher elevations, which might have a large implication during extrapolations at larger spatio-temporal scales. The outcomes of the stand hydrological processes demonstrated a wrong

  20. Eye growth and myopia development: Unifying theory and Matlab model.

    PubMed

    Hung, George K; Mahadas, Kausalendra; Mohammad, Faisal

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this article is to present an updated unifying theory of the mechanisms underlying eye growth and myopia development. A series of model simulation programs were developed to illustrate the mechanism of eye growth regulation and myopia development. Two fundamental processes are presumed to govern the relationship between physiological optics and eye growth: genetically pre-programmed signaling and blur feedback. Cornea/lens is considered to have only a genetically pre-programmed component, whereas eye growth is considered to have both a genetically pre-programmed and a blur feedback component. Moreover, based on the Incremental Retinal-Defocus Theory (IRDT), the rate of change of blur size provides the direction for blur-driven regulation. The various factors affecting eye growth are shown in 5 simulations: (1 - unregulated eye growth): blur feedback is rendered ineffective, as in the case of form deprivation, so there is only genetically pre-programmed eye growth, generally resulting in myopia; (2 - regulated eye growth): blur feedback regulation demonstrates the emmetropization process, with abnormally excessive or reduced eye growth leading to myopia and hyperopia, respectively; (3 - repeated near-far viewing): simulation of large-to-small change in blur size as seen in the accommodative stimulus/response function, and via IRDT as well as nearwork-induced transient myopia (NITM), leading to the development of myopia; (4 - neurochemical bulk flow and diffusion): release of dopamine from the inner plexiform layer of the retina, and the subsequent diffusion and relay of neurochemical cascade show that a decrease in dopamine results in a reduction of proteoglycan synthesis rate, which leads to myopia; (5 - Simulink model): model of genetically pre-programmed signaling and blur feedback components that allows for different input functions to simulate experimental manipulations that result in hyperopia, emmetropia, and myopia. These model simulation programs