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Sample records for budget theory model

  1. Budget Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Washington State Board for Community Coll. Education, Olympia.

    Computerized formula-driven budget models are used by the Washington community college system to define resource needs for legislative budget requests and to distribute legislative appropriations among 22 community college districts. This manual outlines the sources of information needed to operate the model and illustrates the principles on which…

  2. Sublethal toxicant effects with dynamic energy budget theory: model formulation.

    PubMed

    Muller, Erik B; Nisbet, Roger M; Berkley, Heather A

    2010-01-01

    We develop and test a general modeling framework to describe the sublethal effects of pollutants by adding toxicity modules to an established dynamic energy budget (DEB) model. The DEB model describes the rates of energy acquisition and expenditure by individual organisms; the toxicity modules describe how toxicants affect these rates by changing the value of one or more DEB parameters, notably the parameters quantifying the rates of feeding and maintenance. We investigate four toxicity modules that assume: (1) effects on feeding only; (2) effects on maintenance only; (3) effects on feeding and maintenance with similar values for the toxicity parameters; and (4) effects on feeding and maintenance with different values for the toxicity parameters. We test the toxicity modules by fitting each to published data on feeding, respiration, growth and reproduction. Among the pollutants tested are metals (mercury and copper) and various organic compounds (chlorophenols, toluene, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, tetradifon and pyridine); organisms include mussels, oysters, earthworms, water fleas and zebrafish. In most cases, the data sets could be adequately described with any of the toxicity modules, and no single module gave superior fits to all data sets. We therefore propose that for many applications, it is reasonable to use the most general and parameter sparse module, i.e. module 3 that assumes similar effects on feeding and maintenance, as a default. For one example (water fleas), we use parameter estimates to calculate the impact of food availability and toxicant levels on the long term population growth rate. PMID:19633955

  3. Budget Theory and Budget Practice: How Good the Fit?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rubin, Irene S.

    1990-01-01

    Describes the past and present and projects the future of the relationship between theory and practice for normative and descriptive budget theory. Considers the present and future of normative theory gloomy because budgeting has changed and traditional reform ideas have outlived their usefulness. States that descriptive theory has improved and…

  4. Model Error Budgets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Briggs, Hugh C.

    2008-01-01

    An error budget is a commonly used tool in design of complex aerospace systems. It represents system performance requirements in terms of allowable errors and flows these down through a hierarchical structure to lower assemblies and components. The requirements may simply be 'allocated' based upon heuristics or experience, or they may be designed through use of physics-based models. This paper presents a basis for developing an error budget for models of the system, as opposed to the system itself. The need for model error budgets arises when system models are a principle design agent as is increasingly more common for poorly testable high performance space systems.

  5. Modeling the eco-physiology of the purple mauve stinger, Pelagia noctiluca using Dynamic Energy Budget theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Augustine, Starrlight; Rosa, Sara; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.; Carlotti, François; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe

    2014-11-01

    Parameters for the standard Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model were estimated for the purple mauve stinger, Pelagia noctiluca, using literature data. Overall, the model predictions are in good agreement with data covering the full life-cycle. The parameter set we obtain suggests that P. noctiluca is well adapted to survive long periods of starvation since the predicted maximum reserve capacity is extremely high. Moreover we predict that the reproductive output of larger individuals is relatively insensitive to changes in food level while wet mass and length are. Furthermore, the parameters imply that even if food were scarce (ingestion levels only 14% of the maximum for a given size) an individual would still mature and be able to reproduce. We present detailed model predictions for embryo development and discuss the developmental energetics of the species such as the fact that the metabolism of ephyrae accelerates for several days after birth. Finally we explore a number of concrete testable model predictions which will help to guide future research. The application of DEB theory to the collected data allowed us to conclude that P. noctiluca combines maximizing allocation to reproduction with rather extreme capabilities to survive starvation. The combination of these properties might explain why P. noctiluca is a rapidly growing concern to fisheries and tourism.

  6. Budget Formulas and Model Building.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cope, Robert G.

    Selected budget formulas currently in use for university operations are described as a background for examining a budgetary model that would provide for the integration of separate formulas. Data on the formulas were collected from states with system-wide coordinating boards that are responsible for budgetary reviews. The most common formula…

  7. Dynamic energy budget theory restores coherence in biology

    PubMed Central

    Sousa, Tânia; Domingos, Tiago; Poggiale, J.-C.; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.

    2010-01-01

    We present the state of the art of the development of dynamic energy budget theory, and its expected developments in the near future within the molecular, physiological and ecological domains. The degree of formalization in the set-up of the theory, with its roots in chemistry, physics, thermodynamics, evolution and the consistent application of Occam's razor, is discussed. We place the various contributions in the theme issue within this theoretical setting, and sketch the scope of actual and potential applications. PMID:20921042

  8. Radiation budget measurement/model interface

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vonderhaar, T. H.; Ciesielski, P.; Randel, D.; Stevens, D.

    1983-01-01

    This final report includes research results from the period February, 1981 through November, 1982. Two new results combine to form the final portion of this work. They are the work by Hanna (1982) and Stevens to successfully test and demonstrate a low-order spectral climate model and the work by Ciesielski et al. (1983) to combine and test the new radiation budget results from NIMBUS-7 with earlier satellite measurements. Together, the two related activities set the stage for future research on radiation budget measurement/model interfacing. Such combination of results will lead to new applications of satellite data to climate problems. The objectives of this research under the present contract are therefore satisfied. Additional research reported herein includes the compilation and documentation of the radiation budget data set a Colorado State University and the definition of climate-related experiments suggested after lengthy analysis of the satellite radiation budget experiments.

  9. Allocating the Book Budget: A Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kohut, Joseph D.

    1974-01-01

    Inflation is currently affecting library book budgets, particularly the acquisition of serials. This model would balance the purchase of serials against the purchase of monographs by individual funding units within the academic library. Consideration is given to inflation as a cost factor. The model is applied to a specific example. (Author/LS)

  10. Reducing Higher Education Budgets through Multiple Alternatives Modeling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wholeben, Brent Edward

    This paper defines, develops, and displays a mathematical modeling formulation for exploring decisions available to the higher educational administrator in evaluating discrete educational program budgets (instructional, service, and administrative) for possible future funding alternatives. Complex budget reduction strategies can be…

  11. An Earth radiation budget climate model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bartman, Fred L.

    1988-01-01

    A 2-D Earth Radiation Budget Climate Model has been constructed from an OLWR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) model and an Earth albedo model. Each of these models uses the same cloud cover climatology modified by a factor GLCLC which adjusts the global annual average cloud cover. The two models are linked by a set of equations which relate the cloud albedos to the cloud top temperatures of the OLWR model. These equations are derived from simultaneous narrow band satellite measurements of cloud top temperature and albedo. Initial results include global annual average values of albedo and latitude/longitude radiation for 45 percent and 57 percent global annual average cloud cover and two different forms of the cloud albedo-cloud top temperature equations.

  12. Deficit Prevention: Budget Control Model for Enrollment-Dependent Colleges.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Townsley, Michael K.

    1994-01-01

    An ongoing system of short-term budget controls that test actual performance against budget forecasts is essential for enrollment-dependent independent colleges. The budget control model presented here is a tool to inform the management continuously of changes in the all-important tuition revenue stream. (Author/MSE)

  13. Predictive Modeling: Linking Enrollment and Budgeting

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trusheim, Dale; Rylee, Carol

    2011-01-01

    The hard choices that must be made to balance budgets at higher education institutions can be painful and have dramatic consequences that may linger for years. If enrollment projections and therefore tuition income/budgeting projections for future years are inaccurate, then the result may be unnecessary or insufficient budget reductions, both of…

  14. Modeling global macroclimatic constraints on ectotherm energy budgets

    SciTech Connect

    Grant, B.W.; Porter, W.P.

    1992-12-31

    The authors describe a mechanistic individual-based model of how global macroclimatic constraints affect the energy budgets of ectothermic animals. The model uses macroclimatic and biophysical characters of the habitat and organism and tenets of heat transfer theory to calculate hourly temperature availabilities over a year. Data on the temperature dependence of activity rate, metabolism, food consumption and food processing capacity are used to estimate the net rate of resource assimilation which is then integrated over time. They present a new test of this model in which they show that the predicted energy budget sizes for 11 populations of the lizard Sceloporus undulates are in close agreement with observed results from previous field studies. This demonstrates that model tests rae feasible and the results are reasonable. Further, since the model represents an upper bound to the size of the energy budget, observed residual deviations form explicit predictions about the effects of environmental constraints on the bioenergetics of the study lizards within each site that may be tested by future field and laboratory studies. Three major new improvements to the modeling are discussed. They present a means to estimate microclimate thermal heterogeneity more realistically and include its effects on field rates of individual activity and food consumption. Second, they describe an improved model of digestive function involving batch processing of consumed food. Third, they show how optimality methods (specifically the methods of stochastic dynamic programming) may be included to model the fitness consequences of energy allocation decisions subject to food consumption and processing constraints which are predicted from the microclimate and physiological modeling.

  15. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  16. Regional eddy vorticity transport and the equilibrium vorticity budgets of a numerical model ocean circulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harrison, D. E.; Holland, W. R.

    1981-01-01

    A mean vorticity budget analysis is presented of Holland's (1978) numerical ocean general circulation experiment. The stable budgets are compared with classical circulation theory to emphasize the ways in which the mesoscale motions of the model alter (or leave unaltered) classical vorticity balances. The basinwide meridional transports of vorticity by the mean flow and by the mesoscale flow in the mean are evaluated to establish the role(s) of the mesoscale in the larger scale equilibrium vorticity transports. The vorticity equation for this model fluid system is presented and the budget analysis method is described. Vorticity budgets over the selected regions and on a larger scale are given, and a summary of budget results is provided along with remarks about the utility of this type of analysis.

  17. Budget.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Antolovic, Laurie G.

    2001-01-01

    Discusses how the implementation of new information technologies or deployment of new information services in higher education institutions pose challenges for budget planners that must be met with a thorough understanding of the nature of communication and information systems infrastructures. Describes these technical considerations and their…

  18. Decentralized Budgeting in Education: Model Variations and Practitioner Perspectives.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hall, George; Metsinger, Jackie; McGinnis, Patricia

    In educational settings, decentralized budgeting refers to various fiscal practices that disperse budgeting responsibility away from central administration to the line education units. This distributed decision-making is common to several financial management models. Among the many financial management models that employ decentralized budgeting…

  19. A Budget Simulation Model for Times of Stress.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miner, Alfred Norris

    The Florida Community College Inter-Institutional Research Council (IRC) has developed a computerized budget simulation model which can help administrators determine the general fiscal impact of alternate approaches to resource utilization. This model uses three basic systems and one generalized subroutine, based on the budget requirements of the…

  20. A model for analysis of TDA budget allocation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remer, D. S.; Buchanan, H. R.

    1994-01-01

    There is an ever-increasing need to achieve greater efficiency in the operation of the Deep Space Network (DSN), i.e., increased productivity at reduced cost. One of the tools used in the course of a planning workshop on this subject was a methodology for budget allocation applicable to long-range planning. This article presents a model for analysis of the TDA budget allocation. For the 1994 through 1999 period, the percentage of the total TDA budget allocated to capacity and capability is being cut in half, whereas the percentage spent on efficiency of delivery will be increasing.

  1. An information theory approach for evaluating earth radiation budget (ERB) measurements - Nonuniform sampling of reflected shortwave radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barkstrom, Bruce R.; Direskeneli, Haldun; Halyo, Nesim

    1992-01-01

    An information theory approach to examine the temporal nonuniform sampling characteristics of shortwave (SW) flux for earth radiation budget (ERB) measurements is suggested. The information gain is computed by computing the information content before and after the measurements. A stochastic diurnal model for the SW flux is developed, and measurements for different orbital parameters are examined. The methodology is applied to specific NASA Polar platform and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) orbital parameters. The information theory approach, coupled with the developed SW diurnal model, is found to be promising for measurements involving nonuniform orbital sampling characteristics.

  2. 3D modeling of satellite spectral images, radiation budget and energy budget of urban landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gastellu-Etchegorry, J. P.

    2008-12-01

    DART EB is a model that is being developed for simulating the 3D (3 dimensional) energy budget of urban and natural scenes, possibly with topography and atmosphere. It simulates all non radiative energy mechanisms (heat conduction, turbulent momentum and heat fluxes, water reservoir evolution, etc.). It uses DART model (Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer) for simulating radiative mechanisms: 3D radiative budget of 3D scenes and their remote sensing images expressed in terms of reflectance or brightness temperature values, for any atmosphere, wavelength, sun/view direction, altitude and spatial resolution. It uses an innovative multispectral approach (ray tracing, exact kernel, discrete ordinate techniques) over the whole optical domain. This paper presents two major and recent improvements of DART for adapting it to urban canopies. (1) Simulation of the geometry and optical characteristics of urban elements (houses, etc.). (2) Modeling of thermal infrared emission by vegetation and urban elements. The new DART version was used in the context of the CAPITOUL project. For that, districts of the Toulouse urban data base (Autocad format) were translated into DART scenes. This allowed us to simulate visible, near infrared and thermal infrared satellite images of Toulouse districts. Moreover, the 3D radiation budget was used by DARTEB for simulating the time evolution of a number of geophysical quantities of various surface elements (roads, walls, roofs). Results were successfully compared with ground measurements of the CAPITOUL project.

  3. A Program Budgeting Cost Model for School District Planning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dougharty, Laurence A.; And Others

    This report provides a detailed description of an education program cost model designed to accept descriptions of the size and composition of resources used in a particular program and translate them into an estimate of program cost, for convenient comparison of alternatives. The model also translates ("crosswalks") the program budget into…

  4. Balancing the books - a statistical theory of prospective budgets in Earth System science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Kane, J. Philip

    An honest declaration of the error in a mass, momentum or energy balance, ɛ, simply raises the question of its acceptability: "At what value of ɛ is the attempted balance to be rejected?" Answering this question requires a reference quantity against which to compare ɛ. This quantity must be a mathematical function of all the data used in making the balance. To deliver this function, a theory grounded in a workable definition of acceptability is essential. A distinction must be drawn between a retrospective balance and a prospective budget in relation to any natural space-filling body. Balances look to the past; budgets look to the future. The theory is built on the application of classical sampling theory to the measurement and closure of a prospective budget. It satisfies R.A. Fisher's "vital requirement that the actual and physical conduct of experiments should govern the statistical procedure of their interpretation". It provides a test, which rejects, or fails to reject, the hypothesis that the closing error on the budget, when realised, was due to sampling error only. By increasing the number of measurements, the discrimination of the test can be improved, controlling both the precision and accuracy of the budget and its components. The cost-effective design of such measurement campaigns is discussed briefly. This analysis may also show when campaigns to close a budget on a particular space-filling body are not worth the effort for either scientific or economic reasons. Other approaches, such as those based on stochastic processes, lack this finality, because they fail to distinguish between different types of error in the mismatch between a set of realisations of the process and the measured data.

  5. Theory Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Shlachter, Jack

    2012-08-23

    Los Alamos has a long history in theory, modeling and simulation. We focus on multidisciplinary teams that tackle complex problems. Theory, modeling and simulation are tools to solve problems just like an NMR spectrometer, a gas chromatograph or an electron microscope. Problems should be used to define the theoretical tools needed and not the other way around. Best results occur when theory and experiments are working together in a team.

  6. Electric solar wind sail mass budget model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janhunen, P.; Quarta, A. A.; Mengali, G.

    2013-02-01

    The electric solar wind sail (E-sail) is a new type of propellantless propulsion system for Solar System transportation, which uses the natural solar wind to produce spacecraft propulsion. The E-sail consists of thin centrifugally stretched tethers that are kept charged by an onboard electron gun and, as such, experience Coulomb drag through the high-speed solar wind plasma stream. This paper discusses a mass breakdown and a performance model for an E-sail spacecraft that hosts a mission-specific payload of prescribed mass. In particular, the model is able to estimate the total spacecraft mass and its propulsive acceleration as a function of various design parameters such as the number of tethers and their length. A number of subsystem masses are calculated assuming existing or near-term E-sail technology. In light of the obtained performance estimates, an E-sail represents a promising propulsion system for a variety of transportation needs in the Solar System.

  7. Understanding the alternate bearing phenomenon: Resource budget model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prasad, Awadhesh; Sakai, Kenshi

    2015-12-01

    We consider here the resource budget model of plant energy resources, which characterizes the ecological alternate bearing phenomenon in fruit crops, in which high and low yields occur in alternate years. The resource budget model is a tent-type map, which we study in detail. An infinite number of chaotic bands are observed in this map, which are separated by periodic unstable fixed points. These m bands chaotic attractors become m / 2 bands when the period-m unstable fixed points simultaneously collide with the chaotic bands. The distance between two sets of coexisting chaotic bands that are separated by a period-1 unstable fixed point is discussed. We explore the effects of varying a range of parameters of the model. The presented results explain the characteristic behavior of the alternate bearing estimated from the real field data. Effects of noise are also explored. The significance of these results to ecological perspectives of the alternate bearing phenomenon is highlighted.

  8. Understanding the alternate bearing phenomenon: Resource budget model.

    PubMed

    Prasad, Awadhesh; Sakai, Kenshi

    2015-12-01

    We consider here the resource budget model of plant energy resources, which characterizes the ecological alternate bearing phenomenon in fruit crops, in which high and low yields occur in alternate years. The resource budget model is a tent-type map, which we study in detail. An infinite number of chaotic bands are observed in this map, which are separated by periodic unstable fixed points. These m bands chaotic attractors become m/2 bands when the period-m unstable fixed points simultaneously collide with the chaotic bands. The distance between two sets of coexisting chaotic bands that are separated by a period-1 unstable fixed point is discussed. We explore the effects of varying a range of parameters of the model. The presented results explain the characteristic behavior of the alternate bearing estimated from the real field data. Effects of noise are also explored. The significance of these results to ecological perspectives of the alternate bearing phenomenon is highlighted. PMID:26723141

  9. The Potential Vorticity Budget of Multi-Scale MJO Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Back, A.; Biello, J. A.; Majda, A.

    2015-12-01

    Zhang and Ling (J. Atmos. Sci. 2012) performed a comprehensive analysis of the potential vorticity budget of the Madden-Julian Oscillation throughout its initiation and evolution. Biello and Majda have used the Intraseasonal Planetary Equatorial Synoptic-Scale Dynamics (IPESD) framework of Majda and Klein (J. Atmos. Sci. 2003) to create kinematic models of the MJO which distinguish MJO events forced by large-scale heating from MJO events forced by the upscale fluxes of momentum and temperature from the synoptic scales. In the present study, the results of Zhang and Ling provide a benchmark for comparing the different multi-scale MJO models. In particular, a potential vorticity budget can be obtained in the multiscale framework, and the advection, in-scale generation and upscale transfer of PV are considered.

  10. CONSTRUCTION OF EDUCATIONAL THEORY MODELS.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MACCIA, ELIZABETH S.; AND OTHERS

    THIS STUDY DELINEATED MODELS WHICH HAVE POTENTIAL USE IN GENERATING EDUCATIONAL THEORY. A THEORY MODELS METHOD WAS FORMULATED. BY SELECTING AND ORDERING CONCEPTS FROM OTHER DISCIPLINES, THE INVESTIGATORS FORMULATED SEVEN THEORY MODELS. THE FINAL STEP OF DEVISING EDUCATIONAL THEORY FROM THE THEORY MODELS WAS PERFORMED ONLY TO THE EXTENT REQUIRED TO…

  11. The Global Energy Budget -- A Student Exercise in Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulder, Gregory

    2004-05-01

    What in the world does an Energy Czar have to worry about? In this session, we will explore an exercise where students are appointed "Energy Czar" of the planet. This modeling project shows past energy consumption patterns and allows students to manipulate the world's energy usage into the future. Students are asked to use their knowledge of current and future energy sources, as well as other variables important to the world's energy budget, to build the energy future of their dreams.

  12. The Earth's Energy Budget Across CMIP5 Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Portmann, R. W.; Larson, E. J. L.

    2015-12-01

    The earth's energy budget is analyzed across models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) archive and compared with observations. The total energy added to the earth system along with the fate of that energy is analyzed. The energy added to the system is derived from the radiative forcing and is separated into individual forcing terms. The fate of the energy is controlled by the size of the climate feedback to the applied forcing. The relationship between the forcing, feedback, and the stored energy varies greatly across CMIP5 models. The model relationships are compared to observations during the recent time period since 1950 (including the hiatus period). This provides a stringent test of model fidelity against observation, although in some models it is hampered by the inability to adequately remove model drifts. It is found that while the multi-model means of the terms in the earth's energy budgets are in reasonable agreement with observations there are substantial range across individual models.

  13. Relation of the double-ITCZ bias to the atmospheric energy budget in climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adam, Ori; Schneider, Tapio; Brient, Florent; Bischoff, Tobias

    2016-07-01

    We examine how tropical zonal mean precipitation biases in current climate models relate to the atmospheric energy budget. Both hemispherically symmetric and antisymmetric tropical precipitation biases contribute to the well-known double-Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) bias; however, they have distinct signatures in the energy budget. Hemispherically symmetric biases in tropical precipitation are proportional to biases in the equatorial net energy input; hemispherically antisymmetric biases are proportional to the atmospheric energy transport across the equator. Both relations can be understood within the framework of recently developed theories. Atmospheric net energy input biases in the deep tropics shape both the symmetric and antisymmetric components of the double-ITCZ bias. Potential causes of these energetic biases and their variation across climate models are discussed.

  14. A quantitative estimation of the energetic cost of brown ring disease in the Manila clam using Dynamic Energy Budget theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flye-Sainte-Marie, Jonathan; Jean, Fred; Paillard, Christine; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.

    2009-08-01

    Brown ring disease (BRD) in the Manila clam, Ruditapes philippinarum, is a bacterial disease caused by the pathogen Vibrio tapetis. This disease induces the formation of a characteristic brown conchiolin deposit on the inner shell and is associated with a decrease in condition index indicating that the development of the disease affects the energy balance of the clam. A previous study showed that the energy budget of the host was affected by a decrease in filtration activity, and hypothesized that a second way to degrade the energy balance was the increase in maintenance costs associated to the cost of immune response and lesion repair. This paper focusses on this second way of degradation of the energy balance. A starvation experiment confirmed that the energy balance was affected by BRD, independently of the effects on filtration activity, indicating an increase in the maintenance costs. An energy budget model of the Manila clam, based on DEB theory, was developed and allowed to properly predict weight loss during starvation. Vibrio development and its effects on the energy budget of the host was theoretically introduced in the model. Coupling modelling and experimental observations allowed to provide a quantitative and dynamic estimation of the increase in maintenance costs associated with the development of BRD. The estimation which is given here, indicates that during an infection the maintenance cost can almost double compared to the uninfected situation. Further development of the model, especially focussed on Vibrio dynamics and its effects on filtration activity is needed to provide a more extensive description of the energetic cost of BRD in the Manila clam.

  15. How processing digital elevation models can affect simulated water budgets

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kuniansky, E.L.; Lowery, M.A.; Campbell, B.G.

    2009-01-01

    For regional models, the shallow water table surface is often used as a source/sink boundary condition, as model grid scale precludes simulation of the water table aquifer. This approach is appropriate when the water table surface is relatively stationary. Since water table surface maps are not readily available, the elevation of the water table used in model cells is estimated via a two-step process. First, a regression equation is developed using existing land and water table elevations from wells in the area. This equation is then used to predict the water table surface for each model cell using land surface elevation available from digital elevation models (DEM). Two methods of processing DEM for estimating the land surface for each cell are commonly used (value nearest the cell centroid or mean value in the cell). This article demonstrates how these two methods of DEM processing can affect the simulated water budget. For the example presented, approximately 20% more total flow through the aquifer system is simulated if the centroid value rather than the mean value is used. This is due to the one-third greater average ground water gradients associated with the centroid value than the mean value. The results will vary depending on the particular model area topography and cell size. The use of the mean DEM value in each model cell will result in a more conservative water budget and is more appropriate because the model cell water table value should be representative of the entire cell area, not the centroid of the model cell.

  16. Observed nighttime conductance alters modeled global hydrology and carbon budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lombardozzi, D. L.; Zeppel, M. J. B.; Fisher, R. A.; Tawfik, A.

    2015-12-01

    The terrestrial biosphere regulates climate through carbon, water, and energy exchanges with the atmosphere. Land surface models estimate plant transpiration, which is actively regulated by stomatal pores, and provide projections essential for understanding Earth's carbon and water resources. Empirical evidence from 204 species suggests that significant amounts of water are lost through leaves at night, though land surface models typically reduce stomatal conductance to nearly zero at night. Here, we apply observed nighttime stomatal conductance values to a global land surface model, to better constrain carbon and water budgets. We find that our modifications increase transpiration up to 5 % globally, reduce modeled available soil moisture by up to 50 % in semi-arid regions, and increase the importance of the land surface on modulating energy fluxes. Carbon gain declines up to ~ 4 % globally and > 25 % in semi-arid regions. We advocate for realistic constraints of minimum stomatal conductance in future climate simulations, and widespread field observations to improve parameterizations.

  17. Theory and modeling group

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holman, Gordon D.

    The primary purpose of the Theory and Modeling Group meeting was to identify scientists engaged or interested in theoretical work pertinent to the Max '91 program, and to encourage theorists to pursue modeling which is directly relevant to data which can be expected to result from the program. A list of participants and their institutions is presented. Two solar flare paradigms were discussed during the meeting -- the importance of magnetic reconnection in flares and the applicability of numerical simulation results to solar flare studies.

  18. Theory and modeling group

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holman, Gordon D.

    1989-01-01

    The primary purpose of the Theory and Modeling Group meeting was to identify scientists engaged or interested in theoretical work pertinent to the Max '91 program, and to encourage theorists to pursue modeling which is directly relevant to data which can be expected to result from the program. A list of participants and their institutions is presented. Two solar flare paradigms were discussed during the meeting -- the importance of magnetic reconnection in flares and the applicability of numerical simulation results to solar flare studies.

  19. Theory of Chemical Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kühn, Michael

    In order to deal with the complexity of natural systems simplified models are employed to illustrate the principal and regulatory factors controlling a chemical system. Following the aphorism of Albert Einstein: Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler, models need not to be completely realistic to be useful (Stumm and Morgan 1996), but need to meet a successful balance between realism and practicality. Properly constructed, a model is neither too simplified that it is unrealistic nor too detailed that it cannot be readily evaluated and applied to the problem of interest (Bethke 1996). The results of a model have to be at least partially observable or experimentally verifiable (Zhu and Anderson 2002). Geochemical modeling theories are presented here in a sequence of increasing complexity from geochemical equilibrium models to kinetic, reaction path, and finally coupled transport and reaction models. The description is far from complete but provides the needs for the set up of reactive transport models of hydrothermal systems as done within subsequent chapters. Extensive reviews of geochemical models in general can be found in the literature (Appelo and Postma 1999, Bethke 1996, Melchior and Bassett 1990, Nordstrom and Ball 1984, Paschke and van der Heijde 1996).

  20. Modelling mussel growth in ecosystems with low suspended matter loads using a Dynamic Energy Budget approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duarte, P.; Fernández-Reiriz, M. J.; Labarta, U.

    2012-01-01

    The environmental and the economic importance of shellfish stimulated a great deal of studies on their physiology over the last decades, with many attempts to model their growth. The first models developed to simulate bivalve growth were predominantly based on the Scope For Growth ( SFG) paradigm. In the last years there has been a shift towards the Dynamic Energy Budget ( DEB) paradigm. The general objective of this work is contributing to the evaluation of different approaches to simulate bivalve growth in low seston waters by: (i) implementing a model to simulate mussel growth in low suspended matter ecosystems based on the DEB theory (Kooijman, S.A.L.M., 2000. Dynamic and energy mass budgets in biological systems, Cambridge University Press); (ii) comparing and discussing different approaches to simulate feeding processes, in the light of recently published works both on experimental physiology and physiology modeling; (iii) comparing and discussing results obtained with a model based on EMMY ( Scholten and Smaal, 1998). The model implemented allowed to successfully simulate mussel feeding and shell length growth in two different Galician Rias. Obtained results together with literature data suggest that modeling of bivalve feeding should incorporate physiologic feed-backs related with food digestibility. In spite of considerable advances in bivalve modeling a number of issues is yet to be resolved, with emphasis on the way food sources are represented and feeding processes formulated.

  1. CME Theory and Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forbes, T. G.; Linker, J. A.; Chen, J.; Cid, C.; Kóta, J.; Lee, M. A.; Mann, G.; Mikić, Z.; Potgieter, M. S.; Schmidt, J. M.; Siscoe, G. L.; Vainio, R.; Antiochos, S. K.; Riley, P.

    This chapter provides an overview of current efforts in the theory and modeling of CMEs. Five key areas are discussed: (1) CME initiation; (2) CME evolution and propagation; (3) the structure of interplanetary CMEs derived from flux rope modeling; (4) CME shock formation in the inner corona; and (5) particle acceleration and transport at CME driven shocks. In the section on CME initiation three contemporary models are highlighted. Two of these focus on how energy stored in the coronal magnetic field can be released violently to drive CMEs. The third model assumes that CMEs can be directly driven by currents from below the photosphere. CMEs evolve considerably as they expand from the magnetically dominated lower corona into the advectively dominated solar wind. The section on evolution and propagation presents two approaches to the problem. One is primarily analytical and focuses on the key physical processes involved. The other is primarily numerical and illustrates the complexity of possible interactions between the CME and the ambient medium. The section on flux rope fitting reviews the accuracy and reliability of various methods. The section on shock formation considers the effect of the rapid decrease in the magnetic field and plasma density with height. Finally, in the section on particle acceleration and transport, some recent developments in the theory of diffusive particle acceleration at CME shocks are discussed. These include efforts to combine self-consistently the process of particle acceleration in the vicinity of the shock with the subsequent escape and transport of particles to distant regions.

  2. CME Theory and Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forbes, T. G.; Linker, J. A.; Chen, J.; Cid, C.; Kóta, J.; Lee, M. A.; Mann, G.; Mikić, Z.; Potgieter, M. S.; Schmidt, J. M.; Siscoe, G. L.; Vainio, R.; Antiochos, S. K.; Riley, P.

    2006-03-01

    This chapter provides an overview of current efforts in the theory and modeling of CMEs. Five key areas are discussed: (1) CME initiation; (2) CME evolution and propagation; (3) the structure of interplanetary CMEs derived from flux rope modeling; (4) CME shock formation in the inner corona; and (5) particle acceleration and transport at CME driven shocks. In the section on CME initiation three contemporary models are highlighted. Two of these focus on how energy stored in the coronal magnetic field can be released violently to drive CMEs. The third model assumes that CMEs can be directly driven by currents from below the photosphere. CMEs evolve considerably as they expand from the magnetically dominated lower corona into the advectively dominated solar wind. The section on evolution and propagation presents two approaches to the problem. One is primarily analytical and focuses on the key physical processes involved. The other is primarily numerical and illustrates the complexity of possible interactions between the CME and the ambient medium. The section on flux rope fitting reviews the accuracy and reliability of various methods. The section on shock formation considers the effect of the rapid decrease in the magnetic field and plasma density with height. Finally, in the section on particle acceleration and transport, some recent developments in the theory of diffusive particle acceleration at CME shocks are discussed. These include efforts to combine self-consistently the process of particle acceleration in the vicinity of the shock with the subsequent escape and transport of particles to distant regions.

  3. Analyzing variations in life-history traits of Pacific salmon in the context of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pecquerie, Laure; Johnson, Leah R.; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.; Nisbet, Roger M.

    2011-11-01

    To determine the response of Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) populations to environmental change, we need to understand impacts on all life stages. However, an integrative and mechanistic approach is particularly challenging for Pacific salmon as they use multiple habitats (river, estuarine and marine) during their life cycle. Here we develop a bioenergetic model that predicts development, growth and reproduction of a Pacific salmon in a dynamic environment, from an egg to a reproducing female, and that links female state to egg traits. This model uses Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory to predict how life history traits vary among five species of Pacific salmon: Pink, Sockeye, Coho, Chum and Chinook. Supplemented with a limited number of assumptions on anadromy and semelparity and external signals for migrations, the model reproduces the qualitative patterns in egg size, fry size and fecundity both at the inter- and intra-species levels. Our results highlight how modeling all life stages within a single framework enables us to better understand complex life-history patterns. Additionally we show that body size scaling relationships implied by DEB theory provide a simple way to transfer model parameters among Pacific salmon species, thus providing a generic approach to study the impact of environmental conditions on the life cycle of Pacific salmon.

  4. Modelling Changes of the Paleogene Ca Budget Using Benthic Foraminifera

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pabich, S.; Gussone, N. C.; Vollmer, C.; Palike, H.; Rabe, K.; Teichert, B. M.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the earth's climate as well as the oceanic chemical and isotopic evolution in the past is one of the main aims in earth science. Ca as one of the major elements in the ocean is especially important. Its variation in concentration are controlled by different factors including the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere, continental weathering and Ca carbonate sedimentation. We used samples from IODP Exp. 320/321 to establish a δ44/40Ca paleo-seawater record between 45 and 25 Ma and model changes in the Ca budget through time. Our results show differences in the Eocene and Oligocene Ca isotope record of benthic foraminifers. The δ44/40Ca values during the Eocene are relatively constant with no significant fluctuations during phases of large short term CCD fluctuations[1]. The Oligocene is characterized by sediments with uniformly high carbonate content and increasing δ44/40Ca towards the late Oligocene. Past seawater δ44/40Ca values (Fig. 1) were calculated from the measured benthic foraminifer record applying the calibration for Gyroidinoides spp.[2]. The Ca budget during the Eocene is relatively constant and not affected by short term CCD fluctuations, indicating that they are too small to alter the isotopic Ca budget. The Oligocene, in contrast is characterized by a general increase in δ44/40Ca seawater values and a continuously deep CCD[1]. This is consistent with a massive long term (>1Ma) CaCO3 deposition and decreasing Ca concentration in the ocean water. To examine the preservation (dissolution and recrystallization) of the foraminifer test through time, we studied additionally the changes in the crystallographic orientations trough time by Electron Backscatter Diffraction (EBSD) analysis and Raman spectroscopy. As a final step we use our δ44/40Ca seawater record to run a combined Ca and C model showing the effect of Ca weathering input, carbonate remobilization and dolomitization on the Ca and carbonate system of seawater [1]. [1]Pälike H

  5. Law-of-the-wall buffer layer explained by a simplified cospectral budget model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mccoll, K. A.; Katul, G. G.; Gentine, P.; Entekhabi, D.

    2015-12-01

    A series of recent studies have shown that a model of the turbulent vertical velocity variance spectrum (Fvv) combined with a simplified cospectral budget can reproduce many macroscopic flow properties of turbulent wall-bounded flows, including various features of the mean-velocity profile (MVP), i.e., the "law of the wall". While the theory reasonably models the MVP's logarithmic layer, the modelled buffer layer displays insufficient curvature compared to measurements at moderate Reynolds number. The theory is re-examined here using a DNS dataset at moderate Reynolds number. Starting with several hypotheses for the cause of the 'missing' curvature, it is shown that it is mainly due to mismatches between (i) the modelled and DNS-observed pressure-strain terms in the cospectral budget and (ii) the DNS-observed Fvv and the idealized form used in the previous model. By replacing the current parameterization for the pressure-strain term with an expansive version that directly accounts for the presence of a wall, the modelled and DNS reported pressure-strain profiles match each other in the buffer and logarithmic layers. Forcing the new model with DNS-reported Fvv rather than the idealized form previously used reproduces the missing buffer layer curvature to high fidelity thereby confirming the "spectral link" between Fvv and the MVP. A major departure between the idealized Fvv previously employed and those reported from DNS is the invariance with distance from the wall of the cross-over scale to the inertial subrange in Fvv. This invariance is presumably due to the presence of streaks within the buffer region whose dimensions do not scale with distance from the wall. Comparisons between DNS reported and modeled cospectra are also discussed. A broad implication of this work is that much of the macroscopic properties of the flow (such as the MVP) may be derived from the energy distribution in turbulent eddies (i.e., Fvv) representing the microstates of the flow.

  6. ENSO in CMIP5 models from an energy budget perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayer, Michael; Haimberger, Leopold

    2015-04-01

    Vast amounts of energy are exchanged between ocean, atmosphere, and space in association with the primary mode of global climate variability, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Energy budgets of all tropical (30S-30N) ocean basins and the atmosphere are assessed separately to depict anomalous energy flows associated with ENSO in a consistent budget framework. First, state-of-the art atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses are employed to robustly quantify changes in ocean heat storage, anomalous ocean-atmosphere energy exchanges and atmospheric energy transports during ENSO. Variability of area-averaged tropical Pacific ocean heat content (OHC) to a large extent is modulated by energy flow through the ocean surface. While redistribution of OHC within the tropical Pacific is an integral part of ENSO dynamics, variability of lateral ocean heat transport out of the tropical Pacific region is found to be small. The only noteworthy contributions arise from the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), which is anti-correlated with ENSO at a few months lag. Regression analysis reveals that atmospheric energy transport and RadTOA (radiation at top-of-the-atmosphere) almost perfectly balance the OHC changes and ITF variability associated with ENSO. Only a relatively small fraction of El Niño-related heat lost by the Pacific ocean is radiated to space (mainly in the Pacific subtropics), whereas the major part of the energy is transported away by the atmosphere. Ample changes in tropical atmospheric circulation lead to enhanced surface fluxes and consequently to an increase of tropical Atlantic and Indian OHC that to very large degree compensates tropical Pacific OHC loss. This signature of energy redistribution is robust across the employed datasets for all three tropical ocean basins and explains the small observed ENSO signal in global mean RadTOA. These results are then used as a benchmark to evaluate the energy pathways during ENSO as simulated by an ensemble of coupled climate

  7. An Integrated Performance-Based Budgeting Model for Thai Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Charoenkul, Nantarat; Siribanpitak, Pruet

    2012-01-01

    This research mainly aims to develop an administrative model of performance-based budgeting for autonomous state universities. The sample population in this study covers 4 representatives of autonomous state universities from 4 regions of Thailand, where the performance-based budgeting system has been fully practiced. The research informants…

  8. Evaluation Theory, Models, and Applications

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stufflebeam, Daniel L.; Shinkfield, Anthony J.

    2007-01-01

    "Evaluation Theory, Models, and Applications" is designed for evaluators and students who need to develop a commanding knowledge of the evaluation field: its history, theory and standards, models and approaches, procedures, and inclusion of personnel as well as program evaluation. This important book shows how to choose from a growing array of…

  9. Human risky choice under temporal constraints: tests of an energy-budget model.

    PubMed Central

    Pietras, Cynthia J; Locey, Matthew L; Hackenberg, Timothy D

    2003-01-01

    Risk-sensitive foraging models predict that choice between fixed and variable food delays should be influenced by an organism's energy budget. To investigate whether the predictions of these models could be extended to choice in humans, risk sensitivity in 4 adults was investigated under laboratory conditions designed to model positive and negative energy budgets. Subjects chose between fixed and variable trial durations with the same mean value. An energy requirement was modeled by requiring that five trials be completed within a limited time period for points delivered at the end of the period (block of trials) to be exchanged later for money. Manipulating the duration of this time period generated positive and negative earnings budgets (or, alternatively, "time budgets"). Choices were consistent with the predictions of energy-budget models: The fixed-delay option was strongly preferred under positive earnings-budget conditions and the variable-delay option was strongly preferred under negative earnings-budget conditions. Within-block (or trial-by-trial) choices were also frequently consistent with the predictions of a dynamic optimization model, indicating that choice was simultaneously sensitive to the temporal requirements, delays associated with fixed and variable choices on the upcoming trial, cumulative delays within the block of trials, and trial position within a block. PMID:13677609

  10. A Computational Theory of Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossberg, Axel G.

    2003-04-01

    A metatheory is developed which characterizes the relationship between a modelled system, which complies with some ``basic theory'', and a model, which does not, and yet reproduces important aspects of the modelled system. A model is represented by an (in a certain sense, s.b.) optimal algorithm which generates data that describe the model's state or evolution complying with a ``reduced theory''. Theories are represented by classes of (in a similar sense, s.b.) optimal algorithms that test if their input data comply with the theory. The metatheory does not prescribe the formalisms (data structure, language) to be used for the description of states or evolutions. Transitions to other formalisms and loss of accuracy, common to theory reduction, are explicitly accounted for. The basic assumption of the theory is that resources such as the code length (~ programming time) and the computation time for modelling and testing are costly, but the relative cost of each recourse is unknown. Thus, if there is an algorithm a for which there is no other algorithm b solving the same problem but using less of each recourse, then a is considered optimal. For tests (theories), the set X of wrongly admitted inputs is treated as another resource. It is assumed that X1 is cheaper than X2 when X1 ⊂ X2 (X1 ≠ X2). Depending on the problem, the algorithmic complexity of a reduced theory can be smaller or larger than that of the basic theory. The theory might help to distinguish actual properties of complex systems from mere mental constructs. An application to complex spatio-temporal patterns is discussed.

  11. Towards the determination of Mytilus edulis food preferences using the dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory.

    PubMed

    Picoche, Coralie; Le Gendre, Romain; Flye-Sainte-Marie, Jonathan; Françoise, Sylvaine; Maheux, Frank; Simon, Benjamin; Gangnery, Aline

    2014-01-01

    The blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, is a commercially important species, with production based on both fisheries and aquaculture. Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models have been extensively applied to study its energetics but such applications require a deep understanding of its nutrition, from filtration to assimilation. Being filter feeders, mussels show multiple responses to temporal fluctuations in their food and environment, raising questions that can be investigated by modeling. To provide a better insight into mussel-environment interactions, an experiment was conducted in one of the main French growing zones (Utah Beach, Normandy). Mussel growth was monitored monthly for 18 months, with a large number of environmental descriptors measured in parallel. Food proxies such as chlorophyll a, particulate organic carbon and phytoplankton were also sampled, in addition to non-nutritious particles. High-frequency physical data recording (e.g., water temperature, immersion duration) completed the habitat description. Measures revealed an increase in dry flesh mass during the first year, followed by a high mass loss, which could not be completely explained by the DEB model using raw external signals. We propose two methods that reconstruct food from shell length and dry flesh mass variations. The former depends on the inversion of the growth equation while the latter is based on iterative simulations. Assemblages of food proxies are then related to reconstructed food input, with a special focus on plankton species. A characteristic contribution is attributed to these sources to estimate nutritional values for mussels. M. edulis shows no preference between most plankton life history traits. Selection is based on the size of the ingested particles, which is modified by the volume and social behavior of plankton species. This finding reveals the importance of diet diversity and both passive and active selections, and confirms the need to adjust DEB models to different

  12. Towards the Determination of Mytilus edulis Food Preferences Using the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) Theory

    PubMed Central

    Picoche, Coralie; Le Gendre, Romain; Flye-Sainte-Marie, Jonathan; Françoise, Sylvaine; Maheux, Frank; Simon, Benjamin; Gangnery, Aline

    2014-01-01

    The blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, is a commercially important species, with production based on both fisheries and aquaculture. Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models have been extensively applied to study its energetics but such applications require a deep understanding of its nutrition, from filtration to assimilation. Being filter feeders, mussels show multiple responses to temporal fluctuations in their food and environment, raising questions that can be investigated by modeling. To provide a better insight into mussel–environment interactions, an experiment was conducted in one of the main French growing zones (Utah Beach, Normandy). Mussel growth was monitored monthly for 18 months, with a large number of environmental descriptors measured in parallel. Food proxies such as chlorophyll a, particulate organic carbon and phytoplankton were also sampled, in addition to non-nutritious particles. High-frequency physical data recording (e.g., water temperature, immersion duration) completed the habitat description. Measures revealed an increase in dry flesh mass during the first year, followed by a high mass loss, which could not be completely explained by the DEB model using raw external signals. We propose two methods that reconstruct food from shell length and dry flesh mass variations. The former depends on the inversion of the growth equation while the latter is based on iterative simulations. Assemblages of food proxies are then related to reconstructed food input, with a special focus on plankton species. A characteristic contribution is attributed to these sources to estimate nutritional values for mussels. M. edulis shows no preference between most plankton life history traits. Selection is based on the size of the ingested particles, which is modified by the volume and social behavior of plankton species. This finding reveals the importance of diet diversity and both passive and active selections, and confirms the need to adjust DEB models to different

  13. Jieke theory and logistic model

    SciTech Connect

    Cao, H.; Feng, G.

    1996-06-01

    What is a shell or a JIEKE (in Chinese) is introduced firstly, jieke is a sort of system boundary. From the concept of jieke theory, a new logistic model which takes account of the switch effect of the jieke is suggested. The model is analyzed and nonlinear mapping of the model is made. The results show the feature of the switch logistic model far differ from the original logistic model. {copyright} {ital 1996 American Institute of Physics.}

  14. The energy budget of the NCAR Community Climate Model: CCM3

    SciTech Connect

    Kiehl, J.T.; Hack, J.J.; Hurrell, J.W.

    1998-06-01

    The energy budget of the latest version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM3) is described. The energy budget at the top of the atmosphere and at the earth`s surface is compared to observational estimates. The annual mean, seasonal mean, and seasonal cycle of the energy budget are evaluated in comparison with earth radiation budget data at the top of the atmosphere and with the NCAR Ocean Model (NCOM) forcing data at the ocean`s surface. individual terms in the energy budget are discussed. The transient response of the top-of-atmosphere radiative budget to anomalies in tropical sea surface temperature is also presented. In general, the CCM3 is in excellent agreement with ERBE data in terms of annual and seasonal means. The seasonal cycle of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget is also in good agreement with ERBE data. At the surface, the model shortwave flux over the oceans is too large compared to data obtained by W.G. Large and colleagues. It is argued that this bias is related to a model underestimate of shortwave cloud absorption. The major biases in the model are related to the position of deep convection in the tropical Pacific, summertime convective activity over land regions, and the model`s inability to realistically represent marine stratus and stratocumulus clouds. Despite these deficiencies, the model`s implied ocean heat transport is in very good agreement with the explicit ocean heat transport of the NCOM uncoupled simulations. This result is a major reason for the success of the NCAR Climate System Model.

  15. The "covariation method" for estimating the parameters of the standard Dynamic Energy Budget model I: Philosophy and approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lika, Konstadia; Kearney, Michael R.; Freitas, Vânia; van der Veer, Henk W.; van der Meer, Jaap; Wijsman, Johannes W. M.; Pecquerie, Laure; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.

    2011-11-01

    The Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory for metabolic organisation captures the processes of development, growth, maintenance, reproduction and ageing for any kind of organism throughout its life-cycle. However, the application of DEB theory is challenging because the state variables and parameters are abstract quantities that are not directly observable. We here present a new approach of parameter estimation, the covariation method, that permits all parameters of the standard Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model to be estimated from standard empirical datasets. Parameter estimates are based on the simultaneous minimization of a weighted sum of squared deviations between a number of data sets and model predictions or the minimisation of the negative log likelihood function, both in a single-step procedure. The structure of DEB theory permits the unusual situation of using single data-points (such as the maximum reproduction rate), which we call "zero-variate" data, for estimating parameters. We also introduce the concept of "pseudo-data", exploiting the rules for the covariation of parameter values among species that are implied by the standard DEB model. This allows us to introduce the concept of a generalised animal, which has specified parameter values. We here outline the philosophy behind the approach and its technical implementation. In a companion paper, we assess the behaviour of the estimation procedure and present preliminary findings of emerging patterns in parameter values across diverse taxa.

  16. Academic Audit: Development of a Planning, Budgeting, and Evaluation Model for Academic Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cochran, Thomas R.; Felder, Nathaniel L.

    The development of a planning, budgeting, and evaluation model, referred to as an "academic audit" model, at the University of North Carolina, Asheville, is described. The model is essentially a model for planning resource reallocation in conjunction with redefining and reestablishing institutional goals and mission statements. Priorities for…

  17. Randomized Item Response Theory Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fox, Jean-Paul

    2005-01-01

    The randomized response (RR) technique is often used to obtain answers on sensitive questions. A new method is developed to measure latent variables using the RR technique because direct questioning leads to biased results. Within the RR technique is the probability of the true response modeled by an item response theory (IRT) model. The RR…

  18. Extending Structuration Theory: A Study of an IT-Enabled Budget Reform in Mexico

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Puron Cid, Gabriel

    2010-01-01

    For more than 50 years, governments have been engaged in recurrent reforms to their budgetary systems. New budgetary and managerial techniques and information systems (IS) are often coupled together with the goal of facilitating the adoption of budget reforms. The result is a joint innovation unevenly adopted across different organizations and…

  19. A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) Model for the Keystone Predator Pisaster ochraceus

    PubMed Central

    Monaco, Cristián J.; Wethey, David S.; Helmuth, Brian

    2014-01-01

    We present a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for the quintessential keystone predator, the rocky-intertidal sea star Pisaster ochraceus. Based on first principles, DEB theory is used to illuminate underlying physiological processes (maintenance, growth, development, and reproduction), thus providing a framework to predict individual-level responses to environmental change. We parameterized the model for P. ochraceus using both data from the literature and experiments conducted specifically for the DEB framework. We devoted special attention to the model’s capacity to (1) describe growth trajectories at different life-stages, including pelagic larval and post-metamorphic phases, (2) simulate shrinkage when prey availability is insufficient to meet maintenance requirements, and (3) deal with the combined effects of changing body temperature and food supply. We further validated the model using an independent growth data set. Using standard statistics to compare model outputs with real data (e.g. Mean Absolute Percent Error, MAPE) we demonstrated that the model is capable of tracking P. ochraceus’ growth in length at different life-stages (larvae: MAPE = 12.27%; post-metamorphic, MAPE = 9.22%), as well as quantifying reproductive output index. However, the model’s skill dropped when trying to predict changes in body mass (MAPE = 24.59%), potentially because of the challenge of precisely anticipating spawning events. Interestingly, the model revealed that P. ochraceus reserves contribute little to total biomass, suggesting that animals draw energy from structure when food is limited. The latter appears to drive indeterminate growth dynamics in P. ochraceus. Individual-based mechanistic models, which can illuminate underlying physiological responses, offer a viable framework for forecasting population dynamics in the keystone predator Pisaster ochraceus. The DEB model herein represents a critical step in that direction, especially in a period of

  20. Ecosystem Modeling of Biological Processes to Global Budgets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christopher, Potter S.; Condon, Estelle (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    biosphere effects on atmospheric composition is the ecosystem level. These assumptions are the foundation for developing modern emission budgets for biogenic gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, carbon monoxide, isoprene, nitrous and nitric oxide, and ammonia. Such emission budgets commonly include information on seasonal flux patterns, typical diurnal profiles, and spatial resolution of at least one degree latitude/longitude for the globe. On the basis of these budgets, it is possible to compute 'base emission rates' for the major biogenic trace gases from both terrestrial and ocean sources, which may be useful benchmarks for defining the gas production rates of organisms, especially those from early Earth history, which are required to generate a detectable signal on a global atmosphere. This type of analysis is also the starting point for evaluation of the 'biological processes to global gas budget' extrapolation procedure described above for early Earth ecosystems.

  1. Surface heat budget over the Weddell Sea: Buoy results and model comparisons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vihma, Timo; Uotila, Juha; Cheng, Bin; Launiainen, Jouko

    2002-02-01

    The surface heat budget over the Weddell Sea ice cover in 1996 was studied on the basis of data from Argos buoys equipped with meteorological sensors. In addition, a thermodynamic sea ice model, satellite-based data on the sea ice concentration, sonar results on ice thickness distribution, and output from large-scale meteorological models were all utilized. Applying the buoy data, the sensible heat flux over sea ice was calculated by Monin-Obukhov theory using the gradient method, and the latent heat flux was obtained by the bulk method. A second estimate for the surface fluxes was obtained from the thermodynamic sea ice model, which was forced by the buoy observations. The results showed a reasonable agreement. The dominating component in the heat budget over ice was the net longwave radiation, which had a mean annual cooling effect of -28 W m-2. This was balanced by the net shortwave radiation (annual mean 13 W m-2), the sensible (13 W m-2) and latent (-3 W m-2) heat fluxes, and the conductive heat flux through the ice (5 W m-2). The regional surface fluxes over the fractured ice cover were estimated using the buoy data and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI)-derived ice concentrations. In winter the regional surface sensible heat flux was sensitive to the ice concentration and thickness distribution. The estimate for the area-averaged formation rate of new ice in leads in winter varies from 0.05 to 0.21 m per month depending on the SSMI processing algorithm applied. Countergradient fluxes occurred 8-10% of the time. The buoy observations were compared with the operational analyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the reanalyses of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The 2 m air temperature and surface temperature were 3.5° and 4.4°C too high, respectively, in the ECMWF and 3.2° and 3.0°C too low in the NCEP/NCAR fields, but the models reproduced the

  2. Theory of hadronic nonperturbative models

    SciTech Connect

    Coester, F.; Polyzou, W.N.

    1995-08-01

    As more data probing hadron structure become available hadron models based on nonperturbative relativistic dynamics will be increasingly important for their interpretation. Relativistic Hamiltonian dynamics of few-body systems (constituent-quark models) and many-body systems (parton models) provides a precisely defined approach and a useful phenomenology. However such models lack a quantitative foundation in quantum field theory. The specification of a quantum field theory by a Euclidean action provides a basis for the construction of nonperturbative models designed to maintain essential features of the field theory. For finite systems it is possible to satisfy axioms which guarantee the existence of a Hilbert space with a unitary representation of the Poincare group and the spectral condition which ensures that the spectrum of the four-momentum operator is in the forward light cone. The separate axiom which guarantees locality of the field operators can be weakened for the construction for few-body models. In this context we are investigating algebraic and analytic properties of model Schwinger functions. This approach promises insight into the relations between hadronic models based on relativistic Hamiltonian dynamics on one hand and Bethe-Salpeter Green`s-function equations on the other.

  3. Advances in CBL Budgetting and Inverse Modelling by Applying an Off-the-shelf Mesoscale Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Molen, M. K.; Dolman, H.; Ronda, R. J.

    2005-12-01

    Eddy flux towers measure carbon sinks/sources at a local scale (~0.1 km), with the CBL budget method fluxes may be determined at a landscape scale (~1 km), and inverse models may determine the source/sink distribution at a global/continental scale (~1000-10000 km). Although currently efforts are made to increase the resolution of inverse models to the regional scale (~100 km), the meso-scale (100-1000 km) is rather badly represented in this spectrum of approaches. Boundary layer profiles contain signatures of mesoscale processes, such as the effect of wind divergence, topography and forest breezes on the boundary layer height and the subsidence velocity. 3-D advection of resulting concentration gradients is one of the main reasons of failure of the CBL budget approach and the representation error in inverse models and may be addressed in mesoscale atmospheric models. This study shows that considerable improvement may be obtained in the interpretation of boundary layer profiles by running an off-the-shelf mesoscale model without detailed prior knowlegde of the surface flux distribution. The simulations were carried out in the region around Zotino, Central Siberia to aid the interpretation of profile observations collected as part of TCOS-Siberia.

  4. Dynamic Energy Budget model parameter estimation for the bivalve Mytilus californianus: Application of the covariation method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matzelle, A.; Montalto, V.; Sarà, G.; Zippay, M.; Helmuth, B.

    2014-11-01

    Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models serve as a powerful tool for describing the flow of energy through organisms from assimilation of food to utilization for maintenance, growth and reproduction. The DEB theory has been successfully applied to several bivalve species to compare bioenergetic and physiological strategies for the utilization of energy. In particular, mussels within the Mytilus edulis complex (M. edulis, M. galloprovincialis, and M. trossulus) have been the focus of many studies due to their economic and ecological importance, and their worldwide distribution. However, DEB parameter values have never been estimated for Mytilus californianus, a species that is an ecological dominant on rocky intertidal shores on the west coast of North America and which likely varies considerably from mussels in the M. edulis complex in its physiology. We estimated a set of DEB parameters for M. californianus using the covariation method estimation procedure and compared these to parameter values from other bivalve species. Model parameters were used to compare sensitivity to environmental variability among species, as a first examination of how strategies for physiologically contending with environmental change by M. californianus may differ from those of other bivalves. Results suggest that based on the parameter set obtained, M. californianus has favorable energetic strategies enabling it to contend with a range of environmental conditions. For instance, the allocation fraction of reserve to soma (κ) is among the highest of any bivalves, which is consistent with the observation that this species can survive over a wide range of environmental conditions, including prolonged periods of starvation.

  5. Exploring the effects of temperature and resource limitation on mercury bioaccumulation in Fundulus heteroclitus using dynamic energy budget modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory provides a generalizable and broadly applicable framework to connect sublethal toxic effects on individuals to changes in population survival and growth. To explore this approach, we conducted growth and bioaccumulation studies that contribute t...

  6. Grambling State University's Planning/Budgeting Model: An Integral Component of a Decision Support System. SAIR Conference Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lundy, Harold W.

    The development of a planning/budgeting model as an integral component of a decision support system is described. The case study approach is used to describe how Grambling State University (GSU) developed the model to improve its financial planning and budgeting processes. The model can be used for tactical and/or strategic planning. The model is…

  7. A multi-layer land surface energy budget model for implicit coupling with global atmospheric simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryder, J.; Polcher, J.; Peylin, P.; Ottlé, C.; Chen, Y.; van Gorsel, E.; Haverd, V.; McGrath, M. J.; Naudts, K.; Otto, J.; Valade, A.; Luyssaert, S.

    2014-12-01

    In Earth system modelling, a description of the energy budget of the vegetated surface layer is fundamental as it determines the meteorological conditions in the planetary boundary layer and as such contributes to the atmospheric conditions and its circulation. The energy budget in most Earth system models has long been based on a "big-leaf approach", with averaging schemes that represent in-canopy processes. Such models have difficulties in reproducing consistently the energy balance in field observations. We here outline a newly developed numerical model for energy budget simulation, as a component of the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems - CANopy). This new model implements techniques from single-site canopy models in a practical way. It includes representation of in-canopy transport, a multilayer longwave radiation budget, height-specific calculation of aerodynamic and stomatal conductance, and interaction with the bare soil flux within the canopy space. Significantly, it avoids iterations over the height of tha canopy and so maintains implicit coupling to the atmospheric model LMDz. As a first test, the model is evaluated against data from both an intensive measurement campaign and longer term eddy covariance measurements for the intensively studied Eucalyptus stand at Tumbarumba, Australia. The model performs well in replicating both diurnal and annual cycles of fluxes, as well as the gradients of sensible heat fluxes. However, the model overestimates sensible heat flux against an underestimate of the radiation budget. Improved performance is expected through the implementation of a more detailed calculation of stand albedo and a more up-to-date stomatal conductance calculation.

  8. Effects of activity and energy budget balancing algorithm on laboratory performance of a fish bioenergetics model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Madenjian, Charles P.; David, Solomon R.; Pothoven, Steven A.

    2012-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for lake trout Salvelinus namaycush that were fed ad libitum in laboratory tanks under regimes of low activity and high activity. In addition, we compared model performance under two different model algorithms: (1) balancing the lake trout energy budget on day t based on lake trout energy density on day t and (2) balancing the lake trout energy budget on day t based on lake trout energy density on day t + 1. Results indicated that the model significantly underestimated consumption for both inactive and active lake trout when algorithm 1 was used and that the degree of underestimation was similar for the two activity levels. In contrast, model performance substantially improved when using algorithm 2, as no detectable bias was found in model predictions of consumption for inactive fish and only a slight degree of overestimation was detected for active fish. The energy budget was accurately balanced by using algorithm 2 but not by using algorithm 1. Based on the results of this study, we recommend the use of algorithm 2 to estimate food consumption by fish in the field. Our study results highlight the importance of accurately accounting for changes in fish energy density when balancing the energy budget; furthermore, these results have implications for the science of evaluating fish bioenergetics model performance and for more accurate estimation of food consumption by fish in the field when fish energy density undergoes relatively rapid changes.

  9. Budgeting Based on Results: A Return-on-Investment Model Contributes to More Effective Annual Spending Choices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooper, Kelt L.

    2011-01-01

    One major problem in developing school district budgets immune to cuts is the model administrators traditionally use--an expenditure model. The simplicity of this model is seductive: What were the revenues and expenditures last year? What are the expected revenues and expenditures this year? A few adjustments here and there and one has a budget.…

  10. Development of an Operational Model for the Application of Planning-Programming-Budgeting Systems in Local School Districts. Program Budgeting Note 1, Introduction to Program Budgeting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    State Univ. of New York, Buffalo. Western New York School Study Council.

    Although the public is best served by governmental agencies which have integrated the major functions of planning, managing, and budgeting, it can be asserted that the planning function is paramount. A review of the evolution of public agency administration in the U.S. reveals that until recent years the planning function has been largely…

  11. Tree Theory: A Theory-Generative Measurement Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Airasian, Peter W.; Bart, William M.

    The inadequacies in present measurement models are indicated and a description is given of how tree theory, a theory-generative model, overcomes these inadequacies. Among the weaknesses cited in many measurement models are their untested assumptions of linear order and unidimensionality and their inability to generate non-associational…

  12. Multi-Sensor Model-Data Assimilation for Improved Modeling of Savanna Carbon and Water Budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrett, D. J.; Renzullo, L. J.; Guerschman, J.; Hill, M. J.

    2007-12-01

    Model-data assimilation methods are increasingly being used to improve model predictions of carbon pools and fluxes, soil profile moisture contents, and evapotranspiration at catchment to regional scales. In this talk, I will discuss the development of model-data assimilation methods for application to parameter and state estimation problems in the context of savanna carbon and water cycles. A particular focus of this talk will be on the integration of in situ datasets and multiple types of satellite observations with radiative transfer, surface energy balance, and carbon budget models. An example will be drawn from existing work demonstrating regional estimation of soil profile moisture content based on multiple satellite sensors. The data assimilation scheme comprised a forward model, observation operators, multiple observation datasets and an optimization scheme. The forward model propagates model state variables in time based on climate forcing, initial conditions and model parameters and includes processes governing evapotranspiration, water budget and carbon cycle processes. The observation operators calculate modeled land surface temperature and microwave brightness temperatures based on the state variables of profile soil moisture and soil surface layer soil moisture at less than 2.5 cm depth. Satellite observations used in the assimilation scheme are surface brightness temperatures from AMSR-E (passive microwave at 6.9GHz at horizontal polarization) and from AVHRR (thermal channels 4 & 5 from NOAA-18), and land surface reflectances from MODIS Terra (channels 1 and 2 at 250m resolution). These three satellite sensors overpass at approximately the same time of day and provide independent observations of the land surface at different wavelengths. The observed brightness temperatures are used as constraints on the coupled energy balance/microwave radiative transfer model, and a canopy optical model was inverted to retrieve leaf area indices from observed

  13. Getting Comfortable with Change: A New Budget Model for Libraries in Transition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Campbell, Jerry D.

    1994-01-01

    Proposes a new transitional budget model to help make libraries adept at and comfortable with change during the transition to an increasingly electronic knowledge environment, emphasizing staff education and training, new service opportunities, user responsiveness, teamwork, fiscal empowerment, and more effective management systems. (Contains nine…

  14. A multi-layer land surface energy budget model for implicit coupling with global atmospheric simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryder, J.; Polcher, J.; Peylin, P.; Ottlé, C.; Chen, Y.; van Gorsel, E.; Haverd, V.; McGrath, M. J.; Naudts, K.; Otto, J.; Valade, A.; Luyssaert, S.

    2016-01-01

    In Earth system modelling, a description of the energy budget of the vegetated surface layer is fundamental as it determines the meteorological conditions in the planetary boundary layer and as such contributes to the atmospheric conditions and its circulation. The energy budget in most Earth system models has been based on a big-leaf approach, with averaging schemes that represent in-canopy processes. Furthermore, to be stable, that is to say, over large time steps and without large iterations, a surface layer model should be capable of implicit coupling to the atmospheric model. Surface models with large time steps, however, have difficulties in reproducing consistently the energy balance in field observations. Here we outline a newly developed numerical model for energy budget simulation, as a component of the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems - CANopy). This new model implements techniques from single-site canopy models in a practical way. It includes representation of in-canopy transport, a multi-layer long-wave radiation budget, height-specific calculation of aerodynamic and stomatal conductance, and interaction with the bare-soil flux within the canopy space. Significantly, it avoids iterations over the height of the canopy and so maintains implicit coupling to the atmospheric model LMDz (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Zoomed model). As a first test, the model is evaluated against data from both an intensive measurement campaign and longer-term eddy-covariance measurements for the intensively studied Eucalyptus stand at Tumbarumba, Australia. The model performs well in replicating both diurnal and annual cycles of energy and water fluxes, as well as the vertical gradients of temperature and of sensible heat fluxes.

  15. Deconvolution estimation theory applied to Nimbus 6 ERB data. [Earth Radiation Budget

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, R. N.; Smith, G. L.

    1978-01-01

    It is pointed out that the ERB (Earth Radiation Budget) Experiment aboard the Nimbus 6 spacecraft has provided nearly 3 years of data thus far from its wide field of view (WFOV) radiometers. Each data point is an integral of the irradiance from all points within the field of view of the WFOV sensor, which is an approximately 60 deg diameter circular region on the earth. House (1972) proposed that the data, being a convolution of the flux field at the top of the atmosphere, could be convoluted so as to enhance the resolution. The problem was solved by Smith and Green (1975-76) for the case of earth emitted radiation. A parameter estimation approach to the deconvolution problem was formulated. A description is presented of the deconvolution estimation concept and the results obtained by its application to the Nimbus 6 ERB WFOV data for earth emitted radiation for August 1975.

  16. MODELING THE RICE BUDGET IN CHINA USING GIS TECHNOLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Rice paddles are a source of food for over half of the world population and also the source of a very potent greenhouse gas, methane. sing GIS-linked climate based and yield-based empirical models, we calculated the net primary production (NPP) of rice fields in China. alues vari...

  17. Investigating model deficiencies in the global budget of ethane

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tzompa Sosa, Z. A.; Keller, C. A.; Turner, A. J.; Mahieu, E.; Franco, B.; Fischer, E. V.

    2015-12-01

    Many locations in the Northern Hemisphere show a statistically-significant sharp increase in measurements of ethane (C2H6) since 2009. It is hypothesized that the recent massive growth of shale gas exploitation in North America could be the source of this change. However, state-of-the-science chemical transport models are currently unable to reproduce the hemispheric burden of C2H6 or the recent sharp increase, pointing to a potential problem with current emission inventories. To resolve this, we used space-borne CH4 observations from the Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) to derive C2H6 emissions. By using known emission ratios to CH4, we estimated emissions of C2H6 from oil and gas activities, biofuels, and biomass burning over North America. The GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model was used to simulate atmospheric abundances of C2H6 with the new emissions estimates. The model is able to reproduce Northern Hemisphere surface concentrations. However, the model significantly under-predicts the amount of C2H6 throughout the column and the observed Northern Hemispheric gradient as diagnosed by comparisons to aircraft observations from the Hiaper Pole-to-Pole (HIPPO) Campaign.

  18. Stream Heat Budget Modeling of Groundwater Inputs: Model Development and Validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glose, A.; Lautz, L. K.

    2012-12-01

    Models of physical processes in fluvial systems are useful for improving understanding of hydrologic systems and for predicting future conditions. Process-based models of fluid flow and heat transport in fluvial systems can be used to quantify unknown spatial and temporal patterns of hydrologic fluxes, such as groundwater discharge, and to predict system response to future change. In this study, a stream heat budget model was developed and calibrated to observed stream water temperature data for Meadowbrook Creek in Syracuse, NY. The one-dimensional (longitudinal), transient stream temperature model is programmed in Matlab and solves the equations for heat and fluid transport using a Crank-Nicholson finite difference scheme. The model considers four meteorologically driven heat fluxes: shortwave solar radiation, longwave radiation, latent heat flux, and sensible heat flux. Streambed conduction is also considered. Input data for the model were collected from June 13-18, 2012 over a 500 m reach of Meadowbrook Creek, a first order urban stream that drains a retention pond in the city of Syracuse, NY. Stream temperature data were recorded every 20 m longitudinally in the stream at 5-minute intervals using iButtons (model DS1922L, accuracy of ±0.5°C, resolution of 0.0625°C). Meteorological data, including air temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed, were recorded at 5-minute intervals using an on-site weather station. Groundwater temperature was measured in wells adjacent to the stream. Stream dimensions, bed temperatures, and type of bed sediments were also collected. A constant rate tracer injection of Rhodamine WT was used to quantify groundwater inputs every 10 m independently to validate model results. Stream temperatures fluctuated diurnally by ~3-5 °C during the observation period with temperatures peaking around 2 pm and cooling overnight, reaching a minimum between 6 and 7 am. Spatially, the stream shows a cooling trend along the

  19. The Closure of the Ocean Mixed Layer Temperature Budget using Level-Coordinate Model Fields

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Seung-Bum; Fukumori, Ichiro; Lee, Tong

    2005-01-01

    Entrainment is an important element of the mixed layer mass, heat, and temperature budgets. Conventional procedures to estimate entrainment heat advection often do not permit the closure of heat and temperature budgets because of inaccuracies in its formulation. In this study a rigorous approach to evaluate the effect of entrainment using the output of a general circulation model (GCM) that does not have an explicit prognostic mixed layer model is described. The integral elements of the evaluation are 1) the rigorous estimates of the temperature difference between mixed layer water and entrained water at each horizontal grid point, 2) the formulation of the temperature difference such that the budget closes over a volume greater than one horizontal grid point, and 3) the apparent warming of the mixed layer during the mixed layer shoaling to account for the weak vertical temperature gradient within the mixed layer. This evaluation of entrainment heat advection is compared with the estimates by other commonly used ad hoc formulations by applying them in three regions: the north-central Pacific, the Kuroshio Extension, and the Nino-3 areas in the tropical Pacific. In all three areas the imbalance in the mixed layer temperature budget by the ad hoc estimates is significant, reaching a maximum of about 4 K yr(exp -1).

  20. An Improved Heat Budget Estimation Including Bottom Effects for General Ocean Circulation Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carder, Kendall; Warrior, Hari; Otis, Daniel; Chen, R. F.

    2001-01-01

    This paper studies the effects of the underwater light field on heat-budget calculations of general ocean circulation models for shallow waters. The presence of a bottom significantly alters the estimated heat budget in shallow waters, which affects the corresponding thermal stratification and hence modifies the circulation. Based on the data collected during the COBOP field experiment near the Bahamas, we have used a one-dimensional turbulence closure model to show the influence of the bottom reflection and absorption on the sea surface temperature field. The water depth has an almost one-to-one correlation with the temperature rise. Effects of varying the bottom albedo by replacing the sea grass bed with a coral sand bottom, also has an appreciable effect on the heat budget of the shallow regions. We believe that the differences in the heat budget for the shallow areas will have an influence on the local circulation processes and especially on the evaporative and long-wave heat losses for these areas. The ultimate effects on humidity and cloudiness of the region are expected to be significant as well.

  1. The Earth's entropy production budget as simulated by a climate system model of intermediate complexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kleidon, A.; Fraedrich, K.; Lunkeit, F.; Jansen, H.

    2003-04-01

    The Earth is an open thermodynamic system far from equilibrium. It has been suggested that processes within such systems evolve to states of maximum entropy production. Here we report on the entropy production budget of the climate system as simulated by the intermediate complexity climate model PUMA, which consists of an atmospheric general circulation model of coarse resolution, a land surface representation, and a mixed-layer ocean model. We expanded the model to explicitly calculate entopy production for absorption of solar and terrestrial radiation, turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat, atmospheric and oceanic heat transport, and entropy production associated with biotic productivity. We present the general methodology, the entropy production budget for the present-day climatic mean, and the sensitivity to vegetation related land surface characteristics.

  2. Budget study of a mesoscale convective system - Model simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Simpson, Joanne; Mccumber, Michael

    1988-01-01

    A tropical squall-type cloud cluster is examined as an example of a mesoscale convective complex. The precipitation growth processes and air circulations that develop in the convective and stratiform regions are studied using a data set generated from a time-dependent numerical cloud model. The relationship of the stratiform region of the mesoscale convective complex is discussed. The vertical profiles of heating and drying are calculated. Comparisons are made between simulations with and without ice-phase microphysical processes and a simulation with forcing by weaker lifting at middle and upper levels.

  3. Modelling the budget of middle atmospheric water vapour isotopes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zahn, A.; Franz, P.; Bechtel, C.; Groo, J.-U.; Rckmann, T.

    2006-06-01

    A one-dimensional chemistry model is applied to study the stable hydrogen (D) and stable oxygen isotope (17O, 18O) composition of water vapour in stratosphere and mesosphere. In the troposphere, this isotope composition is determined by "physical'' fractionation effects, that are phase changes (e.g. during cloud formation), diffusion processes (e.g. during evaporation from the ocean), and mixing of air masses. Due to these processes water vapour entering the stratosphere first shows isotope depletions in D/H relative to ocean water, which are ~5 times of those in 18O/16O, and secondly is mass-dependently fractionated (MDF), i.e. changes in the isotope ratio 17O/16O are ~0.52 times of those of 18O/16O. In contrast, in the stratosphere and mesosphere "chemical'' fractionation mechanisms, that are the production of HO due to the oxidation of methane, re-cycling of H2O via the HOx family, and isotope exchange reactions considerably enhance the isotope ratios in the water vapour imported from the troposphere. The model reasonably predicts overall enhancements of the stable isotope ratios in H2O by up to ~25% for D/H, ~8.5% for 17O/16O, and ~14% for 18O/16O in the mesosphere relative to the tropopause values. The 17O/16O and 18O/16O ratios in H2O are shown to be a measure of the relative fractions of HOx that receive the O atom either from the reservoirs O2 or O3. Throughout the middle atmosphere, MDF O2 is the major donator of oxygen atoms incorporated in OH and HO2 and thus in H2O. In the stratosphere the known mass-independent fractionation (MIF) signal in O3 is in a first step transferred to the NOx family and only in a second step to HOx and H2O. In contrast to CO2, O(1D) only plays a minor role in this MIF transfer. The major uncertainty in our calculation arises from poorly quantified isotope exchange reaction rate coefficients and kinetic isotope fractionation factors.

  4. An optical model for heat and salt budget estimation for shallow seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warrior, Hari; Carder, Kendall

    2007-12-01

    The effects of the underwater light field on heat-budget calculations for shallow waters are developed and applied for the region of Bahamas. Most of the general circulation models use a simplified heat budget scheme based on Jerlov water types, and do not account for optical bottom effects. By optical bottom effect, we mean the bottom absorption and reflection of the short-wave radiation, which in turn affects the thermal stratification and heat exchange with the atmosphere. In this paper, this optical bottom effect is added to a 3D turbulence model (a 1D model called GOTM is coupled to a 3D model called POM) and the evolution of the temperature structure studied. We call the coupled model 3DGOTM. This optical bottom effect is found to be important in the areas with clear water, shallow depths and small solar zenith angle. On the basis of the coastal meteorological measurements from Andros Island, we have used this three-dimensional turbulence closure model (3DGOTM) to show the influence of bottom reflection and absorption on the sea surface temperature field. The final temperature of the developed water column depends on water depth and bottom albedo. Effects of varying the bottom albedo were studied by comparing results for coral sand and sea grass bottoms. This has an appreciable contribution to the heat budget and salt budget of the shallow waters in these coastal regions. The salinities of the shallow regions near Andros Island have been found to reach as high as 46 psu by summer. In addition to the thermohaline plumes generated by these bottom effects, this warming process has an impact on the moisture feedbacks into the atmosphere due to evaporation.

  5. The global energy budget with a regional climate model over Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiacchio, Marc; Solmon, Fabien; Giorgi, Filippo; Stackhouse, Paul, Jr.

    2013-04-01

    With a greater focus recently placed on regional climate modeling for a better understanding of regional climate processes, knowledge of the earth's radiation balance is crucial in these models as it plays a key role as driver of the climate system. Thus, this study evaluates both the longwave and shortwave components of the radiation budget at the surface and top of the atmosphere (TOA) for the present day period over Europe using simulations from the regional climate model RegCM4. The simulations will be assessed by comparing them to radiative fluxes from satellite derived and ground based observations. These data include those from reanalysis products such as ERA40 and the NASA/Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) Project, which provides global TOA, atmospheric and surface shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes for various uses including detecting climate trends with high precision. Additional radiative fluxes for comparison to the simulated ones, particularly at the TOA, will include the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) directly measured fluxes that are still ongoing on three separate satellite missions. Highly accurate ground based measurements, such as the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), will also be used for assessing the surface modeled fluxes. The evaluation of the regional model will be further discussed with sensitivity experiments to determine the dependence and impact of climate parameters such as cloud fraction, planetary and surface albedo and surface temperature on the radiation budget taking into account their errors. This analysis will contribute to the usefulness of the regional model for not only evaluating the radiation budget but its determination to simulate the climate as well and its importance within the research community.

  6. Evaluating the global energy budget with a regional climate model over Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiacchio, M.; Solmon, F.; Giorgi, F.; Stackhouse, P.

    2012-04-01

    With a greater focus recently placed on regional climate modeling for a better understanding of regional climate processes, knowledge of the earth's radiation balance is crucial in these models as it plays a key role as driver of the climate system. Thus, this study evaluates both the longwave and shortwave components of the radiation budget at the surface and top of the atmosphere (TOA) for the present day period over Europe using simulations from the regional climate model RegCM4. The simulations will be assessed by comparing them to radiative fluxes from satellite derived and ground based observations. These data include those from reanalysis products such as ERA40 and the NASA/Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) Project, which provides global TOA, atmospheric and surface shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes for various uses including detecting climate trends with high precision. Additional radiative fluxes for comparison to the simulated ones, particularly at the TOA, will include the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) directly measured fluxes that are still ongoing on three separate satellite missions. Highly accurate ground based measurements, such as the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), will also be used for assessing the surface modeled fluxes. The evaluation of the regional model will be further discussed with sensitivity experiments to determine the dependence and impact of climate parameters such as cloud fraction, planetary and surface albedo and surface temperature on the radiation budget taking into account their errors. This analysis will contribute to the usefulness of the regional model for not only evaluating the radiation budget but its determination to simulate the climate as well and its importance within the research community.

  7. Water Budget Model for a Remnant of the Historic Northern Everglades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arceneaux, J. C.; Meselhe, E. A.; Habib, E.; Waldon, M. G.

    2006-12-01

    The Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge overlays an area termed Water Conservation Area 1 (WCA-1, a 143,000 acre (58,000 ha) freshwater wetland. It is a remnant of the northern Everglades in Palm Beach County, Florida, USA. Sheetflow that naturally would flow across the Refuge wetlands was disrupted in the 1950s and early 1960s by construction of stormwater pumps, and levees with associated borrow canals which hydraulically isolated the Refuge from its watershed. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services (USFWS) concludes that changes in the water quantity, timing, and quality have caused negative impacts to the Refuge ecosystem. It is a top priority of the Refuge to ensure appropriate management that will produce maximum benefits for fish and wildlife, while meeting flood control and water supply needs. Models can improve our understanding and support improvement in these management decisions. The development of a water budget for the Loxahatchee Refuge will provide one useful modeling tool in support of Refuge water management decisions. The water budget model reported here was developed as a double- box (2-compartment) model with a daily time step that predicts temporal variations of water level in the Refuge rim canal and interior marsh based on observed inflows, outflows, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. The water budget model was implemented using Microsoft EXCEL. The model calibration period was from January 1, 1995 to December 31, 1999; the validation period extended from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2004. Statistical analyses demonstrate the utility of this simple water budget model to predict the temporal variation of water levels in both the Refuge marsh and rim canal. The Refuge water budget model is currently being applied to evaluate various water management scenarios for the Refuge. Preliminary results modeling the mass balance of water quality constituents, including chloride, total phosphorus are encouraging. Success of this

  8. Halo modelling in chameleon theories

    SciTech Connect

    Lombriser, Lucas; Koyama, Kazuya; Li, Baojiu E-mail: kazuya.koyama@port.ac.uk

    2014-03-01

    We analyse modelling techniques for the large-scale structure formed in scalar-tensor theories of constant Brans-Dicke parameter which match the concordance model background expansion history and produce a chameleon suppression of the gravitational modification in high-density regions. Thereby, we use a mass and environment dependent chameleon spherical collapse model, the Sheth-Tormen halo mass function and linear halo bias, the Navarro-Frenk-White halo density profile, and the halo model. Furthermore, using the spherical collapse model, we extrapolate a chameleon mass-concentration scaling relation from a ΛCDM prescription calibrated to N-body simulations. We also provide constraints on the model parameters to ensure viability on local scales. We test our description of the halo mass function and nonlinear matter power spectrum against the respective observables extracted from large-volume and high-resolution N-body simulations in the limiting case of f(R) gravity, corresponding to a vanishing Brans-Dicke parameter. We find good agreement between the two; the halo model provides a good qualitative description of the shape of the relative enhancement of the f(R) matter power spectrum with respect to ΛCDM caused by the extra attractive gravitational force but fails to recover the correct amplitude. Introducing an effective linear power spectrum in the computation of the two-halo term to account for an underestimation of the chameleon suppression at intermediate scales in our approach, we accurately reproduce the measurements from the N-body simulations.

  9. Stochastic models: theory and simulation.

    SciTech Connect

    Field, Richard V., Jr.

    2008-03-01

    Many problems in applied science and engineering involve physical phenomena that behave randomly in time and/or space. Examples are diverse and include turbulent flow over an aircraft wing, Earth climatology, material microstructure, and the financial markets. Mathematical models for these random phenomena are referred to as stochastic processes and/or random fields, and Monte Carlo simulation is the only general-purpose tool for solving problems of this type. The use of Monte Carlo simulation requires methods and algorithms to generate samples of the appropriate stochastic model; these samples then become inputs and/or boundary conditions to established deterministic simulation codes. While numerous algorithms and tools currently exist to generate samples of simple random variables and vectors, no cohesive simulation tool yet exists for generating samples of stochastic processes and/or random fields. There are two objectives of this report. First, we provide some theoretical background on stochastic processes and random fields that can be used to model phenomena that are random in space and/or time. Second, we provide simple algorithms that can be used to generate independent samples of general stochastic models. The theory and simulation of random variables and vectors is also reviewed for completeness.

  10. Water budget and its variation in Hutuo River basin predicted with the VIP ecohydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, F.; Mo, X.

    2015-05-01

    Accurate assessment of water budgets is important to water resources management and sustainable development in catchments. Here the VIP (Vegetation Interface Processes) ecohydrological model is used to estimate the water budget and its influence factors in Hutuo River basin, China. The model runs from 1956 to 2010 with a spatial resolution of 1 km, utilizing remotely sensed LAI data of MODIS. During the study period the canopy transpiration takes up 58% of evapotranspiration over the whole catchment and the fractions of soil and interception evaporation are 36% and 6% respectively. The annual evapotranspiration and streamflow are both declining, mainly resulting from the decrease of annual precipitation. Attribution analysis shows that the contributions of climate change and human activities to the decrease of streamflow are 48% and 52%, respectively.

  11. The potential vorticity budget of the multi-scale models of the MJO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Remmel, M.; Biello, J. A.; Majda, A.

    2012-12-01

    Zhang and Ling (J.Atmos Sci. 2012) performed a comprehensive analysis of the potential vorticity budget of the MJO, distinguishing it from Rossby and Kelvin waves. Biello and Majda have used the IPESD multi-scale framework of tropical dynamics to create kinematic models of the MJO which distinguish an MJO forced by in-scale heating with ones forced by fluxes of momentum and temperature from synoptic to MJO scales. In this study we use the results of Zhang and Ling as a benchmark for comparing the different multi-scale models. In particular, a PV budget can be obtained in the multi-scale framework, and PV advection, in-scale generation, and upscale generation terms are compared.

  12. Analysis of Regional Budgets of Sulfur Species Modeled for the COSAM Exercise

    SciTech Connect

    Roelofs, G.-J.; Kasibhatla, P.; Barrie, Leonard A.; Bergmann, D.; Bridgeman, C.; Chin, M.; Christensen, J.; Easter, Richard C.; Feichter, J.; Jeuken, A.; Kjellstrom, E.; Koch, D.; Land, C.; Lohmann, U.; Rasch, P.

    2001-11-01

    The COSAM intercomparison exercise (comparison of large-scale sulfur models) was organized to compare and evaluate the performance of global sulfur cycle models. Eleven models participated, and from these models the simulated surface concentrations, vertical profiles and budget terms were submitted. This study focuses on simulated budget terms for the sources and sinks of SO2 and sulfate in three polluted regions in the Northern Hemisphere, i.e., eastern North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia. Qualitatively, features of the sulfur cycle are modeled quite consistently between models, such as the relative importance of dry deposition as a removal mechanism for SO2, the important of aqueous phase oxidation over gas phase oxidation for SO2, and the importance of wet over dry deposition for removal of sulfate aerosol. Quantitatively, however, models may show large differences, especially for cloud-related processes, i.e., aqueous phase oxidation of SO2 and sulfate wet deposition. In some cases a specific behavior can be related to the treatment of oxidants for aqueous phase SO2 oxidation, or the vertical resolution applied in models. Generally, however, the differences between models appear to be related to simulated cloud (micro-)physics and distributions, whereas differences in vertical transport efficiencies related to convection play an additional role. The estimated sulfur column burdens, lifetimes and export budgets vary between models by about a factor of 2 or 3. It can be expected that uncertainties in related effects which are derived from global sulfur model calculations, such as direct and indirect climate forcing estimates by sulfate aerosol, are at least of similar magnitude.

  13. Turbulence kinetic energy budget during the afternoon transition - Part 2: A simple TKE model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nilsson, Erik; Lothon, Marie; Lohou, Fabienne; Pardyjak, Eric; Hartogensis, Oscar; Darbieu, Clara

    2016-07-01

    A simple model for turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) and the TKE budget is presented for sheared convective atmospheric conditions based on observations from the Boundary Layer Late Afternoon and Sunset Turbulence (BLLAST) field campaign. It is based on an idealized mixed-layer approximation and a simplified near-surface TKE budget. In this model, the TKE is dependent on four budget terms (turbulent dissipation rate, buoyancy production, shear production and vertical transport of TKE) and only requires measurements of three available inputs (near-surface buoyancy flux, boundary layer depth and wind speed at one height in the surface layer) to predict vertical profiles of TKE and TKE budget terms.This simple model is shown to reproduce some of the observed variations between the different studied days in terms of near-surface TKE and its decay during the afternoon transition reasonably well. It is subsequently used to systematically study the effects of buoyancy and shear on TKE evolution using idealized constant and time-varying winds during the afternoon transition. From this, we conclude that many different TKE decay rates are possible under time-varying winds and that generalizing the decay with simple scaling laws for near-surface TKE of the form tα may be questionable.The model's errors result from the exclusion of processes such as elevated shear production and horizontal advection. The model also produces an overly rapid decay of shear production with height. However, the most influential budget terms governing near-surface TKE in the observed sheared convective boundary layers are included, while only second-order factors are neglected. Comparison between modeled and averaged observed estimates of dissipation rate illustrates that the overall behavior of the model is often quite reasonable. Therefore, we use the model to discuss the low-turbulence conditions that form first in the upper parts of the boundary layer during the afternoon transition and are only

  14. Supercell thunderstorm modeling and theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rotunno, Richard

    Tornadoes occur in thunderstorms. Ferrel [1889] theorized that tornadoes form when the thunderstorm updraft encounters a preexisting "gyratory" wind field. Only lately has it been found that tornadoes/waterspouts can be produced by nonrotating thunderstorms forming in environments with a preexisting low-level gyratory wind field [Wakimoto and Wilson, 1989]. However, the most intense, and long-lived, tornadoes occur in a special type of thunderstorm known as the "supercell," which generates its own gyratory wind field. That it does so is interesting, but perhaps the most fascinating aspect of rotation in the supercell, which became clear in the past decade or so, is the rotating wind field's vital role in producing the supercell's extraordinary properties of long life and deviate motion. Thus the present review will focus on what was learned from modeling and theory about the rotation and propagation of, and the relation of tornadoes to, supercell thunderstorms.

  15. Impact of land-surface elevation and riparian evapotranspiration seasonality on groundwater budget in MODFLOW models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ajami, Hoori; Meixner, Thomas; Maddock, Thomas; Hogan, James F.; Guertin, D. Phillip

    2011-09-01

    Riparian groundwater evapotranspiration (ETg) constitutes a major component of the water balance especially in many arid and semi-arid environments. Although spatial and temporal variability of riparian ETg are controlled by climate, vegetation and subsurface characteristics, depth to water table (DTWT) is often considered the major controlling factor. Relationships between ETg rates and DTWT, referred to as ETg curves, are implemented in MODFLOW ETg packages (EVT, ETS1 and RIP-ET) with different functional forms. Here, the sensitivity of the groundwater budget in MODFLOW groundwater models to ETg parameters (including ETg curves, land-surface elevation and ETg seasonality) are investigated. A MODFLOW model of the hypothetical Dry Alkaline Valley in the Southwestern USA is used to show how spatial representation of riparian vegetation and digital elevation model (DEM) processing methods impact the water budget when RIPGIS-NET (a GIS-based ETg program) is used with MODFLOW's RIP-ET package, and results are compared with the EVT and ETS1 packages. Results show considerable impact on ETg and other groundwater budget components caused by spatial representation of riparian vegetation, vegetation type, fractional coverage areas and land-surface elevation. RIPGIS-NET enhances ETg estimation in MODFLOW by incorporating vegetation and land-surface parameters, providing a tool for ecohydrology studies, riparian ecosystem management and stream restoration.

  16. Quiver gauge theories and integrable lattice models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yagi, Junya

    2015-10-01

    We discuss connections between certain classes of supersymmetric quiver gauge theories and integrable lattice models from the point of view of topological quantum field theories (TQFTs). The relevant classes include 4d N=1 theories known as brane box and brane tilling models, 3d N=2 and 2d N=(2,2) theories obtained from them by compactification, and 2d N=(0,2) theories closely related to these theories. We argue that their supersymmetric indices carry structures of TQFTs equipped with line operators, and as a consequence, are equal to the partition functions of lattice models. The integrability of these models follows from the existence of extra dimension in the TQFTs, which emerges after the theories are embedded in M-theory. The Yang-Baxter equation expresses the invariance of supersymmetric indices under Seiberg duality and its lower-dimensional analogs.

  17. The Ozone Budget in the Upper Troposphere from Global Modeling Initiative (GMI)Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodriquez, J.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Logan, Jennifer A.

    2006-01-01

    Ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere are influenced by in-situ production, long-range tropospheric transport, and influx of stratospheric ozone, as well as by photochemical removal. Since ozone is an important greenhouse gas in this region, it is particularly important to understand how it will respond to changes in anthropogenic emissions and changes in stratospheric ozone fluxes.. This response will be determined by the relative balance of the different production, loss and transport processes. Ozone concentrations calculated by models will differ depending on the adopted meteorological fields, their chemical scheme, anthropogenic emissions, and treatment of the stratospheric influx. We performed simulations using the chemical-transport model from the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) with meteorological fields from (It)h e NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM), (2) the atmospheric GCM from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office(GMAO), and (3) assimilated winds from GMAO . These simulations adopt the same chemical mechanism and emissions, and adopt the Synthetic Ozone (SYNOZ) approach for treating the influx of stratospheric ozone -. In addition, we also performed simulations for a coupled troposphere-stratosphere model with a subset of the same winds. Simulations were done for both 4degx5deg and 2degx2.5deg resolution. Model results are being tested through comparison with a suite of atmospheric observations. In this presentation, we diagnose the ozone budget in the upper troposphere utilizing the suite of GMI simulations, to address the sensitivity of this budget to: a) the different meteorological fields used; b) the adoption of the SYNOZ boundary condition versus inclusion of a full stratosphere; c) model horizontal resolution. Model results are compared to observations to determine biases in particular simulations; by examining these comparisons in conjunction with the derived budgets, we may pinpoint

  18. The ocean's gravitational potential energy budget in a coupled climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, E. D.; Oliver, K. I.; Gregory, J. M.; Tailleux, R.

    2013-10-01

    This study examines, in a unified fashion, the budgets of ocean gravitational potential energy (GPE) and available gravitational potential energy (AGPE) in the control simulation of the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model HadCM3. Only AGPE can be converted into kinetic energy by adiabatic processes. Diapycnal mixing supplies GPE but not AGPE, whereas the reverse is true of the combined effect of surface buoyancy forcing and convection. Mixing and buoyancy forcing thus play complementary roles in sustaining the large-scale circulation. However, the largest globally integrated source of GPE is resolved advection (+0.57 TW) and the largest sink is through parameterized eddy transports (-0.82 TW). The effect of these adiabatic processes on AGPE is identical to their effect on GPE, except for perturbations to both budgets due to numerical leakage exacerbated by nonlinearities in the equation of state.

  19. Development of Turbulent Diffusion Transfer Model to Estimate Hydrologic Budget of Upper Klamath Lake Oregon, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sahoo, G. B.; Schladow, G.

    2013-12-01

    Detailed and accurate hydrologic budgets of lake or reservoirs are essential for sustainable water supply and ecosystem managements due to increasing water demand and uncertainties related to climate change. Ensuring sustainable water allocation to stakeholders requires accurate heat and hydrologic budgets. A number of micrometeorological methods have been developed to approximate heat budget components, such as evaporative and sensible heat loss, that are not directly measurable. Although micrometeorological methods estimate the sensible and evaporative loss well for stationary (i.e. ideal) condition, these methods can rarely be approximated for non-idealized condition. We developed a turbulent diffusion transfer model and coupled to the dynamic lake model (DLM-WQ), developed at UC Davis, with the goal of correctly estimating the hydrologic budget of Upper Klamath Lake Oregon, USA. The measured and DLM-WQ estimated lake water temperatures and water elevation are in excellent agreement with correlation coefficient equals 0.95 and 0.99, respectively. Consistent with previous studies, the sensible and latent heat exchange coefficients were found to be site specific. Estimated lake mixing shows that the lake became strongly stratified during summer (between late April and the end of August). For the hypereutrophic shallow Upper Klamath Lake, longer stratification results in low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration at the sediment surface causing DO sensitive habitat destruction and ecological problems. The updated DLM-WQ can provide quantitative estimates of hydrologic components and predict the effects of natural- or human-induced changes in one component of the hydrologic cycle on the lake supplies and associated consequences.

  20. Combining the benefits of decision science and financial analysis in public health management: a county-specific budgeting and planning model.

    PubMed

    Fos, Peter J; Miller, Danny L; Amy, Brian W; Zuniga, Miguel A

    2004-01-01

    State public health agencies are charged with providing and overseeing the management of basic public health services on a population-wide basis. These activities have a re-emphasized focus as a result of the events of September 11, 2001, the subsequent anthrax events, and the continuing importance placed on bioterrorism preparedness, West Nile virus, and emerging infectious diseases (eg, monkeypox, SARS). This has added to the tension that exists in budgeting and planning, given the diverse constituencies that are served in each state. State health agencies must be prepared to allocate finite resources in a more formal manner to be able to provide basic public health services on a routine basis, as well as during outbreaks. This article describes the use of an analytical approach to assist financial analysis that is used for budgeting and planning in a state health agency. The combined benefits of decision science and financial analysis are needed to adequately and appropriately plan and budget to meet the diverse needs of the populations within a state. Health and financial indicators are incorporated into a decision model, based on multicriteria decision theory, that has been employed to acquire information about counties and public health programs areas within a county, that reflect the impact of planning and budgeting efforts. This information can be used to allocate resources, to distribute funds for health care services, and to guide public health finance policy formulation and implementation. PMID:15552764

  1. Evaluation of the Arctic Surface Radiation Budget in CMIP5 Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boeke, R.; Taylor, P. C.

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic region is warming at a rate nearly double the global average, and this trend is predicted to continue for the coming decades, as simulated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate projections. Despite the consistency in the projected surface warming rate relative to the globe, significant inter-model spread is found in the overall magnitude of Arctic surface temperature change, which leads to large inter-model spread in the simulation of surface radiative properties. The goal of this presentation is to determine the biases in the representation of the Arctic surface radiation budget seasonal cycle and discover the physical processes that explain the significant spread in projected Arctic warming. First, biases in the simulated Arctic surface radiation budget seasonal cycle within several CMIP5 climate models participating in the Historical forcing scenario are evaluated with respect to the CERES-SFC-EBAF and C3M data products. Next, the equations for longwave and shortwave cloud radiative forcing are decomposed using an independent column approximation (ICA) to identify which factors are driving changes to the annual cycle of cloud radiative forcing as well as what terms are contributing to the inter-model spread in the simulation of the surface energy budget. A multiple linear regression methodology is applied to the results of the ICA analysis using four atmospheric state variables as predictors: surface pressure, lower tropospheric stability, sea-ice concentration, and surface temperature. The impact of thermodynamics, atmospheric dynamics, and cloud-sea ice interactions on the annual cycle of cloud radiative effect will be determined.

  2. Using "snapshot" measurements of CH4 fluxes from peatlands to estimate annual budgets: interpolation vs. modelling.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Green, Sophie M.; Baird, Andy J.

    2016-04-01

    There is growing interest in estimating annual budgets of peatland-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) exchanges. Such budgeting is required for calculating peatland carbon balance and the radiative forcing impact of peatlands on climate. There have been multiple approaches used to estimate CO2 budgets; however, there is a limited literature regarding the modelling of annual CH4 budgets. Using data collected from flux chamber tests in an area of blanket peatland in North Wales, we compared annual estimates of peatland-atmosphere CH4 emissions using an interpolation approach and an additive and multiplicative modelling approach. Flux-chamber measurements represent a snapshot of the conditions on a particular site. In contrast to CO2, most studies that have estimated the time-integrated flux of CH4 have not used models. Typically, linear interpolation is used to estimate CH4 fluxes during the time periods between flux-chamber measurements. It is unclear how much error is involved with such a simple integration method. CH4 fluxes generally show a rise followed by a fall through the growing season that may be captured reasonably well by interpolation, provided there are sufficiently frequent measurements. However, day-to-day and week-to-week variability is also often evident in CH4 flux data, and will not necessarily be properly represented by interpolation. Our fits of the CH4 flux models yielded r2 > 0.5 in 38 of the 48 models constructed, with 55% of these having a weighted rw2 > 0.4. Comparison of annualised CH4 fluxes estimated by interpolation and modelling reveals no correlation between the two data sets; indeed, in some cases even the sign of the flux differs. The difference between the methods seems also to be related to the size of the flux - for modest annual fluxes there is a fairly even scatter of points around the 1:1 line, whereas when the modelled fluxes are high, the corresponding interpolated fluxes tend to be low. We consider the

  3. Dynamical budgets of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current using ocean general-circulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grezio, A.; Wells, N. C.; Ivchenko, V. O.; de Cuevas, B. A.

    2005-04-01

    Three general-circulation models (FRAM, OCCAM and POP) are used to investigate the dynamics of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) at the latitudes of the Drake Passage where the ACC is unbounded. In these general circulation models, bottom form stress balances the wind stress in the momentum budgets. In the vorticity budgets, the main balance is between wind curl and bottom pressure torque in FRAM, OCCAM and POP. Moreover, in the ACC belt all topographic features are regions of nonlinearity and bottom pressure torque variations, with the Drake Passage playing the largest role. Transient eddy Reynolds stresses (TERSs) play a different role in the three models. In the upper levels, TERSs accelerate the flow in the POP and FRAM models, but decelerate the flow in OCCAM. The behaviour of TERSs change throughout the whole water column in the ACC belt and Reynolds stresses have a dragging effect on the flow below the levels where the topography starts to obstruct the flow. The total volume transport in three models is very different. Additionally, the different spatial resolution, which results in a different level of eddy kinetic energy, has a significant influence on the transport.

  4. Applying Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory to simulate growth and bio-energetics of blue mussels under low seston conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosland, R.; Strand, Ø.; Alunno-Bruscia, M.; Bacher, C.; Strohmeier, T.

    2009-08-01

    A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for simulation of growth and bioenergetics of blue mussels ( Mytilus edulis) has been tested in three low seston sites in southern Norway. The observations comprise four datasets from laboratory experiments (physiological and biometrical mussel data) and three datasets from in situ growth experiments (biometrical mussel data). Additional in situ data from commercial farms in southern Norway were used for estimation of biometrical relationships in the mussels. Three DEB parameters (shape coefficient, half saturation coefficient, and somatic maintenance rate coefficient) were estimated from experimental data, and the estimated parameters were complemented with parameter values from literature to establish a basic parameter set. Model simulations based on the basic parameter set and site specific environmental forcing matched fairly well with observations, but the model was not successful in simulating growth at the extreme low seston regimes in the laboratory experiments in which the long period of negative growth caused negative reproductive mass. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the model was moderately sensitive to changes in the parameter and initial conditions. The results show the robust properties of the DEB model as it manages to simulate mussel growth in several independent datasets from a common basic parameter set. However, the results also demonstrate limitations of Chl a as a food proxy for blue mussels and limitations of the DEB model to simulate long term starvation. Future work should aim at establishing better food proxies and improving the model formulations of the processes involved in food ingestion and assimilation. The current DEB model should also be elaborated to allow shrinking in the structural tissue in order to produce more realistic growth simulations during long periods of starvation.

  5. Earth radiation budget measurements from satellites and their interpretation for climate modeling and studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vonderhaar, T. H.; Stephens, G. L.; Campbell, G. G.

    1980-01-01

    The annual and seasonal averaged Earth atmosphere radiation budgets derived from the most complete set of satellite observations available are presented. The budgets were derived from a composite of 48 monthly mean radiation budget maps. Annually and seasonally averaged radiation budgets are presented as global averages and zonal averages. The geographic distribution of the various radiation budget quantities is described. The annual cycle of the radiation budget was analyzed and the annual variability of net flux was shown to be largely dominated by the regular semi and annual cycles forced by external Earth-Sun geometry variations. Radiative transfer calculations were compared to the observed budget quantities and surface budgets were additionally computed with particular emphasis on discrepancies that exist between the present computations and previous surface budget estimates.

  6. Ozone budget in the upper stratosphere: Model studies using the reprocessed LIMS and the HALOE datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Natarajan, Murali; Remsberg, Ellis E.; Gordley, Larry L.

    2002-04-01

    Recently reprocessed LIMS dataset has been used with a contemporary photochemical model to study the balance between photochemical production and destruction of ozone in the upper stratosphere. Model results corresponding to January 1979 indicate that the ozone deficit is less than 15% in the pressure range of 5 to 0.5 mb between 50°S and 50°N latitude. The imbalance at 40 km is much smaller than reported by the earliest studies with the archived LIMS data. The same model, when initialized with HALOE (version 19) data for January, 1996, shows similar results with peak ozone deficits being less than 10%. For both cases, the model shows a near balance in the ozone budget above 1 mb, contrary to recent studies based on balloon-borne measurements. The magnitude of the ozone imbalance seen in this study is within the uncertainties of the data and model.

  7. The Antarctic sea ice concentration budget of an ocean-sea ice coupled model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lecomte, Olivier; Goosse, Hugues; Fichefet, Thierry; Holland, Paul R.; Uotila, Petteri

    2015-04-01

    The Antarctic sea ice concentration budget of the NEMO-LIM ocean-sea ice coupled model is computed and analyzed. Following a previously developed method, the sea ice concentration balance over the autumn-winter seasons is decomposed into four terms, including the sea ice concentration change during the period of interest, advection, divergence and a residual accounting for the net contribution of thermodynamics and ice deformation. Preliminary results from this analysis show that the geographical patterns of all budget terms over 1992-2010 are in qualitative agreement with the observed ones. Sea ice thermodynamic growth is maintained by horizontal divergence near the continent and in the central ice pack, while melting close to the ice edge is led by sea ice advection. Quantitatively however, the inner ice pack divergence and associated sea ice freezing are much stronger, as compared to observations. The advection of sea ice in both the central pack and the marginal areas are likewise stronger, which corroborates the findings of a previous study in which the same methods were applied to a fully coupled climate model. Nonetheless, the seasonal evolution of sea ice area and total extent are reasonably well simulated, since enhanced sea ice freezing due to larger divergence in the central pack is compensated by intensified melting in the outer pack owing to faster advection. Those strong dynamic components in the sea ice concentration budget are due to ice velocities that tend to be biased high all around Antarctica and particularly near the ice edge. The obtained results show that the applied method is particularly well suited for assessing the skills of an ocean-sea ice coupled model in simulating the seasonal and regional evolution of Antarctic sea ice for the proper physical reasons.

  8. The measurement of the earth's radiation budget as a problem in information theory - A tool for the rational design of earth observing systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barkstrom, B. R.

    1983-01-01

    The measurement of the earth's radiation budget has been chosen to illustrate the technique of objective system design. The measurement process is an approximately linear transformation of the original field of radiant exitances, so that linear statistical techniques may be employed. The combination of variability, measurement strategy, and error propagation is presently made with the help of information theory, as suggested by Kondratyev et al. (1975) and Peckham (1974). Covariance matrices furnish the quantitative statement of field variability.

  9. A Budget Impact Model for Paclitaxel-eluting Stent in Femoropopliteal Disease in France

    SciTech Connect

    De Cock, Erwin; Sapoval, Marc; Julia, Pierre; Lissovoy, Greg de; Lopes, Sandra

    2013-04-15

    The Zilver PTX drug-eluting stent (Cook Ireland Ltd., Limerick, Ireland) represents an advance in endovascular treatments for atherosclerotic superficial femoral artery (SFA) disease. Clinical data demonstrate improved clinical outcomes compared to bare-metal stents (BMS). This analysis assessed the likely impact on the French public health care budget of introducing reimbursement for the Zilver PTX stent. A model was developed in Microsoft Excel to estimate the impact of a progressive transition from BMS to Zilver PTX over a 5-year horizon. The number of patients undergoing SFA stenting was estimated on the basis of hospital episode data. The analysis from the payer perspective used French reimbursement tariffs. Target lesion revascularization (TLR) after primary stent placement was the primary outcome. TLR rates were based on 2-year data from the Zilver PTX single-arm study (6 and 9 %) and BMS rates reported in the literature (average 16 and 22 %) and extrapolated to 5 years. Net budget impact was expressed as the difference in total costs (primary stenting and reinterventions) for a scenario where BMS is progressively replaced by Zilver PTX compared to a scenario of BMS only. The model estimated a net cumulative 5-year budget reduction of Euro-Sign 6,807,202 for a projected population of 82,316 patients (21,361 receiving Zilver PTX). Base case results were confirmed in sensitivity analyses. Adoption of Zilver PTX could lead to important savings for the French public health care payer. Despite higher initial reimbursement for the Zilver PTX stent, fewer expected SFA reinterventions after the primary stenting procedure result in net savings.

  10. Estimating uncertainties on a Gulf Stream mixed-layer heat budget from stochastic modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayoub, Nadia K.; Lucas, Marc; De Mey, Pierre

    2015-10-01

    This study aims to explore the robustness of the mixed-layer heat budget as estimated from an eddy-permitting model with respect to uncertainties in atmospheric forcing. We illustrate how statistics from an ensemble can be used in a first step towards the calculation of error bars of any simulated quantity, such as the mixed-layer heat budget. The statistics from an ensemble of 33 simulations are derived in order to infer information on the model errors space and time variability of the main terms of the heat budget. The ensemble is generated by perturbing the wind forcing and the incoming solar radiation as uncertainties on these fields are expected to be a main source of errors for the surface layer representation in the model at monthly to seasonal scales. We focus on the mixed-layer in the Gulf Stream system during the deepening period (Sept.-March). The results indicate that large errors are expected at the Gulf Stream front location and just north of it. The largest errors are found on the zonal and meridional advection and vertical diffusion terms: they can locally reach values that are larger than the terms themselves. We observe a rapid increase with time of the errors for both these terms. The error growth is mainly due to the mesoscale decorrelation. The impact of wind errors on southward Ekman transport and surface turbulence generates uncertainties on the vertical diffusion term just north of the Gulf Stream front. We work with an eddy-permitting configuration similar to those used in ocean reanalysis projects (e.g. SODA, and GLORYS). Our results suggest that for such configurations, at monthly to seasonal time scales, the impact of uncertainties in the atmospheric forcing is weak on the mixed-layer cooling but very large on the zonal and meridional advection and vertical diffusion heat budget terms. In consequence, the estimate of these quantities from ocean reanalyses is not robust with respect to the atmospheric forcing and should be provided with

  11. High-redshift quasars and the supermassive black hole mass budget: constraints on quasar formation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bromley, J. M.; Somerville, R. S.; Fabian, A. C.

    2004-05-01

    We investigate the constraints on models of supermassive black hole (SMBH) and quasar formation obtainable from two recent observational developments: the discovery of luminous quasars at z~ 6, and estimates of the local mass density of SMBHs. If ~90 per cent of this mass was accreted at redshifts z<~ 3, as suggested by the observed quasar luminosity functions, these joint constraints pose a challenge for models, which must account for the observed luminous quasar population at z~ 6 within a very limited `mass budget'. We investigate a class of models based within the hierarchical structure formation scenario, in which major mergers lead to black hole formation and fuelling, and the resulting quasars shine at their Eddington-limited rate until their fuel is exhausted. We show that the simplest such model, in which a constant fraction of the gas within the halo is accreted in each major merger, cannot satisfy both constraints simultaneously. When this model is normalized to reproduce the number density of luminous quasars at z~ 6, the mass budget is grossly exceeded owing to an overabundance of lower-mass SMBHs. We explore a range of modifications to the simple model designed to overcome this problem. We show that both constraints can be satisfied if the gas accretion fraction scales as a function of the halo virial velocity. Similar scalings have been proposed in order to reproduce the local M•-σ relation. Successful models can also be constructed by restricting the formation of seed black holes to redshifts above zcrit~ 11.5 or to haloes above a velocity threshold vcrit~ 55 km s-1, or assuming that only a fraction of major mergers result in formation of a seed SMBH. We also briefly discuss the issue of trying to assume a `universal M•-σ relation' within the framework of simple Press-Schechter models, and further show that a fixed universal relation between SMBH mass and host halo mass is unlikely.

  12. Regional scale cropland carbon budgets: evaluating a geospatial agricultural modeling system using inventory data

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Xuesong; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Manowitz, David H.; Sahajpal, Ritvik; West, Tristram O.; Thomson, Allison M.; Xu, Min; Zhao, Kaiguang; LeDuc, Stephen D.; Williams, Jimmy R.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate quantification and clear understanding of regional scale cropland carbon (C) cycling is critical for designing effective policies and management practices that can contribute toward stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, extrapolating site-scale observations to regional scales represents a major challenge confronting the agricultural modeling community. This study introduces a novel geospatial agricultural modeling system (GAMS) exploring the integration of the mechanistic Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model, spatially-resolved data, surveyed management data, and supercomputing functions for cropland C budgets estimates. This modeling system creates spatially-explicit modeling units at a spatial resolution consistent with remotely-sensed crop identification and assigns cropping systems to each of them by geo-referencing surveyed crop management information at the county or state level. A parallel computing algorithm was also developed to facilitate the computationally intensive model runs and output post-processing and visualization. We evaluated GAMS against National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported crop yields and inventory estimated county-scale cropland C budgets averaged over 2000–2008. We observed good overall agreement, with spatial correlation of 0.89, 0.90, 0.41, and 0.87, for crop yields, Net Primary Production (NPP), Soil Organic C (SOC) change, and Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), respectively. However, we also detected notable differences in the magnitude of NPP and NEE, as well as in the spatial pattern of SOC change. By performing crop-specific annual comparisons, we discuss possible explanations for the discrepancies between GAMS and the inventory method, such as data requirements, representation of agroecosystem processes, completeness and accuracy of crop management data, and accuracy of crop area representation. Based on these analyses, we further discuss strategies to improve GAMS by updating input

  13. Developing integrated parametric planning models for budgeting and managing complex projects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Etnyre, Vance A.; Black, Ken U.

    1988-01-01

    The applicability of integrated parametric models for the budgeting and management of complex projects is investigated. Methods for building a very flexible, interactive prototype for a project planning system, and software resources available for this purpose, are discussed and evaluated. The prototype is required to be sensitive to changing objectives, changing target dates, changing costs relationships, and changing budget constraints. To achieve the integration of costs and project and task durations, parametric cost functions are defined by a process of trapezoidal segmentation, where the total cost for the project is the sum of the various project cost segments, and each project cost segment is the integral of a linearly segmented cost loading function over a specific interval. The cost can thus be expressed algebraically. The prototype was designed using Lotus-123 as the primary software tool. This prototype implements a methodology for interactive project scheduling that provides a model of a system that meets most of the goals for the first phase of the study and some of the goals for the second phase.

  14. The Ocean's Gravitational Potential Energy Budget in a Coupled Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, Edward; Oliver, Kevin; Gregory, Jonathan; Tailleux, Remi

    2014-05-01

    It has been suggested that the ocean's budget of mechanical energy can provide insights into the nature of global ocean circulation and its driving processes. However, the energetics of the physical ocean and realistic ocean and coupled climate models are not well understood, even at steady-state. This study examines, in a unified fashion, the budgets of ocean gravitational potential energy (GPE) and available gravitational potential energy (AGPE) in the control simulation of the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model HadCM3. Only AGPE can be converted into kinetic energy by adiabatic processes. However, not all oceanic processes affect GPE and AGPE in the same way. Diapycnal mixing supplies GPE, but not AGPE, whereas the reverse is true of the combined effect of surface buoyancy forcing and convection. Mixing and buoyancy forcing, thus, play complementary roles in sustaining the large scale circulation. Indeed, surface buoyancy fluxes are the largest globally integrated source of AGPE (+0.72 TW). However, the largest globally integrated source of GPE is resolved advection (+0.57 TW) and the largest sink is through parameterized eddy transports (-0.82 TW). The effect of these adiabatic processes on AGPE is identical to their effect on GPE, except for small perturbations due to numerical leakage exacerbated by nonlinearities in the equation of state.

  15. Mean kinetic energy budget of wakes within an array of model wind turbines and porous discs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cal, Raúl Bayoán; Camp, Elizabeth

    2015-11-01

    Wind turbines are often modeled as porous actuator discs within computational studies. In this wind tunnel study, stereo particle image velocimetry (SPIV) is used to characterize the wakes within a 4 ×3 model wind turbine array and an analogous array of porous disks. The SPIV measurements are performed upstream between - 2 . 9 <= x / D <= - 0 . 3 and downstream between 0 . 7 <= x / D <= 5 . 6 of the center turbine in the fourth row. To provide context, the similarities and differences in the flow fields as well as the mean and turbulent stresses are found. The primary analysis revolves around the mean kinetic energy budget in the wakes for both cases, model turbines and discs, obtained by the computation of mean kinetic energy, production of turbulence and flux of kinetic energy as these are equivalent to a measure of extracted power.

  16. Ozone Budgets from a Global Chemistry/Transport Model and Comparison to Observations from POLARIS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kawa, S. Randolph; Newman, P. A.; Douglass, A. R.; Weaver, C. J.; Gao, R.-S.; Salawitch, R. J.; Johnson, D. G.; Jucks, K. W.

    1998-01-01

    The objective of the Photochemistry of Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region in Summer (POLARIS) field mission was to obtain data to better characterize the summertime seasonal decrease of ozone at mid to high latitudes. The decrease in ozone occurs mainly in the lower stratosphere and is expected to result from in situ chemical destruction. Instrumented balloons and aircraft were used in POLARIS, along with satellites, to measure ozone and chemical species which are involved with stratospheric ozone chemistry. In order to close the seasonal ozone budget, however, ozone transport must also be estimated. Comparison to a global chemistry and transport model (CTM) of the stratosphere indicates how well the summertime ozone loss processes are simulated and thus how well we can predict the ozone response to changing amounts of chemical source gases. Moreover, the model gives insight into the possible relative magnitude of transport contributions to the seasonal ozone decline. Initial comparison to the Goddard CTM, which uses transport winds and temperatures from meteorological data assimilation, shows a high ozone bias in the model and an attenuated summertime ozone loss cycle. Comparison of the model chemical partitioning and ozone catalytic loss rates to those derived from measurements shows fairly close agreement both at ER-2 altitudes (20 km) and higher. This suggests that the model transport is too active in resupplying ozone to the high latitude region, although chemistry failings cannot be completely ruled out. Comparison of ozone and related species will be shown along with a full diagnosis of the model ozone budget and its possible sources of error.

  17. Ozone Budgets from a Global Chemistry/ Transport Model and Comparison to Observations from POLARIS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kawa, S. Randy

    1999-01-01

    The objective of the Photochemistry of Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region in Summer (POLARIS) field mission was to obtain data to better characterize the summertime seasonal decrease of ozone at mid to high latitudes. The decrease in ozone occurs mainly in the lower stratosphere and is expected to result from in situ chemical destruction. Instrumented balloons and aircraft were used in POLARIS, along with satellites, to measure ozone and chemical species which are involved with stratospheric ozone chemistry. In order to close the seasonal ozone budget, however, ozone transport must also be estimated. Comparison to a global chemistry and transport model (CTM) of the stratosphere indicates how well the summertime ozone loss processes are simulated and thus how well we can predict the ozone response to changing amounts of chemical source gases. Moreover, the model gives insight into the possible relative magnitude of transport contributions to the seasonal ozone decline. Initial comparison to the Goddard CTM, which uses transport winds and temperatures from meteorological data assimilation, shows a high ozone bias in the model and an attenuated summertime ozone loss cycle. Comparison of the model chemical partitioning, and ozone catalytic loss rates to those derived from measurements shows fairly close agreement both at ER-2 altitudes (20 km) and higher. This suggests that the model transport is too active in resupplying ozone to the high latitude region, although chemistry failings cannot be completely ruled out. Comparison of ozone and related species will be shown along with a full diagnosis of the model ozone budget and its possible sources of error.

  18. Dimer models and quiver gauge theories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pichai, Ramadevi

    2013-12-01

    = 1 quiver gauge theories on coincident D3 branes placed at a tip of a Calabi-Yau singularity C are dual to string theories on AdS5×X5 where X5 are Sasaki-Einstein spaces. We present a neat combinatorial approach called dimer model to understand interrelations between toric quiver gauge theories and toric data representing the Calabi-Yau singularities.

  19. A water-budget model and estimates of groundwater recharge for Guam

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Adam G.

    2012-01-01

    On Guam, demand for groundwater tripled from the early 1970s to 2010. The demand for groundwater is anticipated to further increase in the near future because of population growth and a proposed military relocation to Guam. Uncertainty regarding the availability of groundwater resources to support the increased demand has prompted an investigation of groundwater recharge on Guam using the most current data and accepted methods. For this investigation, a daily water-budget model was developed and used to estimate mean recharge for various land-cover and rainfall conditions. Recharge was also estimated for part of the island using the chloride mass-balance method. Using the daily water-budget model, estimated mean annual recharge on Guam is 394.1 million gallons per day, which is 39 percent of mean annual rainfall (999.0 million gallons per day). Although minor in comparison to rainfall on the island, water inflows from water-main leakage, septic-system leachate, and stormwater runoff may be several times greater than rainfall at areas that receive these inflows. Recharge is highest in areas that are underlain by limestone, where recharge is typically between 40 and 60 percent of total water inflow. Recharge is relatively high in areas that receive stormwater runoff from storm-drain systems, but is relatively low in urbanized areas where stormwater runoff is routed to the ocean or to other areas. In most of the volcanic uplands in southern Guam where runoff is substantial, recharge is less than 30 percent of total water inflow. The water-budget model in this study differs from all previous water-budget investigations on Guam by directly accounting for canopy evaporation in forested areas, quantifying the evapotranspiration rate of each land-cover type, and accounting for evaporation from impervious areas. For the northern groundwater subbasins defined in Camp, Dresser & McKee Inc. (1982), mean annual baseline recharge computed in this study is 159.1 million gallons

  20. Crisis in Context Theory: An Ecological Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Myer, Rick A.; Moore, Holly B.

    2006-01-01

    This article outlines a theory for understanding the impact of a crisis on individuals and organizations. Crisis in context theory (CCT) is grounded in an ecological model and based on literature in the field of crisis intervention and on personal experiences of the authors. A graphic representation denotes key components and premises of CCT,…

  1. Estimating outdoor thermal comfort using a cylindrical radiation thermometer and an energy budget model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, R. D.; Gillespie, T. J.

    1986-03-01

    A mathematical model to estimate outdoor thermal comfort for humans from micrometeorological data has been formulated using the energy balance concept and the simultaneous satisfaction of four criteria for comfort from the literature: (a) a comfortable perspiration rate, (b) a comfortable core body temperature, (c) a comfortable skin temperature, and (d) a near-zero energy budget. A cylindrical modification of the globe thermometer is proposed as a simple monitor of outdoor radiation absorption for a person, and the effect of windspeed on the thermal resistance of clothing is considered. Results show a correlation coefficient of 0.91 between model output and subjective comfort ratings of 59 different situations with a variety of temperatures, insolations and windspeeds.

  2. Earth radiation budget and cloudiness simulations with a general circulation model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    HARSHVARDHAN; Randall, David A.; Corsetti, Thomas G.; Dazlich, Donald A.

    1989-01-01

    A GCM with new parameterizations of solar and terrestrial radiation, parameterized cloud optical properties, and a simple representation of the cloud liquid water feedback is used with several observational data sets to analyze the effects of cloudiness on the earth's radiation budget. The January and July results from the model are in reasonable agreement with data from Nimbus-7. It is found that the simulated cloudiness overpredicts subtropical and midlatitude cloudiness. The simulated atmospheric cloud radiative forcing is examined. The clear-sky radiation fields obtained by two methods of Cess and Potter (1987) are compared. Also, a numerical experiment was performed to determine the effects of the water vapor continuum on the model results.

  3. Contribution of isoprene to chemical budgets: A model tracer study with the NCAR CTM MOZART-4

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pfister, G. G.; Emmons, L. K.; Hess, P. G.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Orlando, J. J.; Walters, S.; Guenther, A.; Palmer, P. I.; Lawrence, P. J.

    2008-03-01

    We present a study of the sensitivity of isoprene emission calculations in a global chemistry transport model (CTM) to input land cover characteristics and analyze the impacts of changes in isoprene on the tropospheric budgets of atmospheric key species. The CTM Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Species, version 4 (MOZART-4) includes the online calculation of isoprene emissions based on the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), which is driven by three different land parameter inputs. We also included a tagging scheme in the CTM, which keeps track of the production of carbon containing species from isoprene oxidation. It is found that the amount of tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO), formaldehyde (HCHO) and peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN) explained by isoprene oxidation ranges from 9-16%, 15-27%, and 22-32%, depending on the isoprene emissions scenario. Changes in the global tropospheric burden with different land cover inputs can reach up to 10% for CO, 15% for HCHO, and 20% for PAN. Changes for ozone are small on a global scale, but regionally differences are as large as 3DU in the tropospheric column and as large as 5 ppbv in the surface concentrations. Our results demonstrate that a careful integration of isoprene emissions and chemistry in CTMs is very important for simulating the budgets of a number of atmospheric trace gases. We further demonstrate that the model tagging scheme has the capability of improving conventional methods of constraining isoprene emissions from space-borne HCHO column observations, especially in regions where a considerable part of the variability in the HCHO column is not related to isoprene.

  4. Development of a dynamic energy budget modeling approach to investigate the effects of temperature and resource limitation on mercury bioaccumulation in Fundulus heteroclitus-presentation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory provides a generalizable and broadly applicable framework to connect sublethal toxic effects on individuals to changes in population survival and growth. To explore this approach, we are conducting growth and bioaccumulation studies that contrib...

  5. Development of a Dynamic Energy Budget Modeling Approach to Investigate the Effects of Temperature and Resource Limitation on Mercury Bioaccumulation in Fundulus Heteroclitus

    EPA Science Inventory

    Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory provides a generalizable and broadly applicable framework to connect sublethal toxic effects on individuals to changes in population persistence and growth. To explore this approach, we are conducting growth and bioaccumulation studies that cont...

  6. Development of a dynamic energy budget modeling approach to investigate the effects of temperature and resource limitation on mercury bioaccumulation in Fundulus heteroclitus.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory provides a generalizable and broadly applicable framework to connect sublethal toxic effects on individuals to changes in population survival and growth. To explore this approach, we are developing growth and bioaccumulation studies that contrib...

  7. A coupled biogeochemical-Dynamic Energy Budget model as a tool for managing fish production ponds.

    PubMed

    Serpa, Dalila; Pousão-Ferreira, Pedro; Caetano, Miguel; Cancela da Fonseca, Luís; Dinis, Maria Teresa; Duarte, Pedro

    2013-10-01

    The sustainability of semi-intensive aquaculture relies on management practices that simultaneously improve production efficiency and minimize the environmental impacts of this activity. The purpose of the present work was to develop a mathematical model that reproduced the dynamics of a semi-intensive fish earth pond, to simulate different management scenarios for optimizing fish production. The modeling approach consisted of coupling a biogeochemical model that simulated the dynamics of the elements that are more likely to affect fish production and cause undesirable environmental impacts (nitrogen, phosphorus and oxygen) to a fish growth model based on the Dynamic Energy Budget approach. The biogeochemical sub-model successfully simulated most water column and sediment variables. A good model fit was also found between predicted and observed white seabream (Diplodus sargus) growth data over a production cycle. In order to optimize fish production, different management scenarios were analysed with the model (e.g. increase stocking densities, decrease/increase water exchange rates, decrease/increase feeding rates, decrease phosphorus content in fish feeds, increase food assimilation efficiency and decrease pellets sinking velocity) to test their effects on the pond environment as well as on fish yields and effluent nutrient discharges. Scenarios were quantitatively evaluated and compared using the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) methodology. The best management options that allow the maximization of fish production while maintaining a good pond environment and minimum impacts on the adjacent coastal system were to double standard stocking densities and to improve food assimilation efficiency. PMID:23872182

  8. Water budget comparison of global climate models and experimental data in Onça Creek basin, Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melo, D. C. D.; Marin, I. S. P.; Wendland, E.

    2014-09-01

    Groundwater is an important part of the hydrological cycle, accounting for more than 25% of human needs on the global scale. As a result of aquifer overexploitation associated with climate change, even in the most conservative future climate scenarios, mean water-table levels can experience drastic drops. Although there are efforts to include groundwater dynamics in global climate models (GCMs), its influence is still not taken into full account in GCM water budgets, although it is as important as the other water sources considered. To assess the role of percolation in the water balance, we compared the water budget from climate forcing scenarios using 10 GCMs with the water budget from experimental data of a basin in São Paulo state, Brazil. We used the delta factor approach to correct the bias of the model's temperature and precipitation for a control period from 1970 to 1999, and calculated evapotranspiration using the Thornthwaite method. Experimental data for runoff and interception were derived for the basin's representative crops (sugar cane and pasture) for both water budgets. As the GCMs ignore subsurface flow and the only input considered is precipitation and snow melt, the excess surface water is assumed to be redistributed among the other water budget components. The experimental data shows that there is enough available water for infiltration, indicating that recharge cannot be ignored in the water balance. This leads to the possibility of the models' overestimating the other components to compensate for the ignored recharge.

  9. Modelling developmental changes in the carbon and nitrogen budgets of larval brachyuran crabs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anger, K.

    1990-03-01

    The uptake and partitioning of nutritional carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) were studied during the complete larval development of a brachyuran crab, Hyas araneus, reared under constant conditions in the laboratory. Biochemical and physiological data were published in a foregoing paper, and complete budgets of C and N were now constructed from these data. Regression equations describing rates of feeding ( F), growth ( G), respiration ( R), and ammonia excretion ( U) as functions of time during individual larval moult cycles were inserted in a simulation model, in order to analyse time-dependent (i.e. developmental) patterns of variation in these parameters as well as in bioenergetic efficiencies. Absolute daily feeding rates ( F; per individual) as well as carbon and nitrogen-specific rates ( F/C, F/N) are in general maximum in early, and minimum in late stages of individual larval moult cycles (postmoult and premoult, respectively). Early crab zoeae may ingest equivalents of up to ca 40% body C and 30% body N per day, respectively, whereas megalopa larvae usually eat less than 10%. Also growth rates ( G; G/C, G/N) reveal decreasing tendencies both during individual moult cycles and, on the average, in subsequent instars. Conversion of C and N data to lipid and protein, respectively, suggests that in all larval instars there is initially an increase in the lipid: protein ratio. Protein, however, remains clearly the predominant biochemical constituent in larval biomass. The absolute and specific values of respiration ( R; R/C) and excretion ( U; U/N) vary only little during the course of individual moult cycles. Thus, their significance in relation to G increases within the C and N budgets, and net growth efficiency ( K 2) decreases concurrently. Also gross growth and assimilation efficiency ( K 2; A/F) are, in general, maximum in early stages of the moult cycle (postmoult). Biochemical data suggest that lipid utilization efficiency is particularly high in early moult

  10. An approach for modeling sediment budgets in supply-limited rivers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wright, Scott A.; Topping, David J.; Rubin, David M.; Melis, Theodore S.

    2010-01-01

    Reliable predictions of sediment transport and river morphology in response to variations in natural and human-induced drivers are necessary for river engineering and management. Because engineering and management applications may span a wide range of space and time scales, a broad spectrum of modeling approaches has been developed, ranging from suspended-sediment "rating curves" to complex three-dimensional morphodynamic models. Suspended sediment rating curves are an attractive approach for evaluating changes in multi-year sediment budgets resulting from changes in flow regimes because they are simple to implement, computationally efficient, and the empirical parameters can be estimated from quantities that are commonly measured in the field (i.e., suspended sediment concentration and water discharge). However, the standard rating curve approach assumes a unique suspended sediment concentration for a given water discharge. This assumption is not valid in rivers where sediment supply varies enough to cause changes in particle size or changes in areal coverage of sediment on the bed; both of these changes cause variations in suspended sediment concentration for a given water discharge. More complex numerical models of hydraulics and morphodynamics have been developed to address such physical changes of the bed. This additional complexity comes at a cost in terms of computations as well as the type and amount of data required for model setup, calibration, and testing. Moreover, application of the resulting sediment-transport models may require observations of bed-sediment boundary conditions that require extensive (and expensive) observations or, alternatively, require the use of an additional model (subject to its own errors) merely to predict the bed-sediment boundary conditions for use by the transport model. In this paper we present a hybrid approach that combines aspects of the rating curve method and the more complex morphodynamic models. Our primary objective

  11. Autotrophic carbon budget in coral tissue: a new 13C-based model of photosynthate translocation.

    PubMed

    Tremblay, Pascale; Grover, Renaud; Maguer, Jean François; Legendre, Louis; Ferrier-Pagès, Christine

    2012-04-15

    Corals live in symbiosis with dinoflagellates of the genus Symbiodinum. These dinoflagellates translocate a large part of the photosynthetically fixed carbon to the host, which in turn uses it for its own needs. Assessing the carbon budget in coral tissue is a central question in reef studies that still vexes ecophysiologists. The amount of carbon fixed by the symbiotic association can be determined by measuring the rate of photosynthesis, but the amount of carbon translocated by the symbionts to the host and the fate of this carbon are more difficult to assess. In the present study, we propose a novel approach to calculate the budget of autotrophic carbon in the tissue of scleractinian corals, based on a new model and measurements made with the stable isotope (13)C. Colonies of the scleractinian coral Stylophora pistillata were incubated in H(13)CO (-)(3)-enriched seawater, after which the fate of (13)C was followed in the symbionts, the coral tissue and the released particulate organic carbon (i.e. mucus). Results obtained showed that after 15 min, ca. 60% of the carbon fixed was already translocated to the host, and after 48 h, this value reached 78%. However, ca. 48% of the photosynthetically fixed carbon was respired by the symbiotic association, and 28% was released as dissolved organic carbon. This is different from other coral species, where <1% of the total organic carbon released is from newly fixed carbon. Only 23% of the initially fixed carbon was retained in the symbionts and coral tissue after 48 h. Results show that our (13)C-based model could successfully trace the carbon flow from the symbionts to the host, and the photosynthetically acquired carbon lost from the symbiotic association. PMID:22442377

  12. Supersymmetric F-theory GUT models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chung, Yu-Chieh

    F-theory is a twelve-dimensional geometric version of string theory and is believed to be a natural framework for GUT model building. The aim of this dissertation is to study how gauge theories realized by F-theory can accommodate GUT models. In this dissertation, we focus on local and semi-local GUT model building in F-theory. For local GUT models, we build SU(5) GUTs by using abelian U(1) fluxes via theSU6) gauge group. Doing so, we obtain non-minimal spectra of the MSSM with doublet-triplet splitting by switching on abelian U(1)2 fluxes. We also classify all supersymmetric U(1)2 fluxes by requiring an exotic-free bulk spectrum. For semi-local GUT models, we start with an E8 singularity and obtain lower rank gauge groups by unfolding the singularity governed by spectral covers. In this framework, the spectra can be calculated by the intersection numbers of spectral covers and matter curves. In particular, we useSU4) spectral covers and abelian U(1)X fluxes to build flippedSU5) models. We show that three-generation spectra of flippedSU5) models can be achieved by turning on suitable fluxes. To construct E6 GUTs, we consider SU3) spectral covers breaking E8 down to E6. Also three-generation extended MSSM can be obtained by using non-abelian SU2) x U(1)2 fluxes.

  13. Growth of cockles ( Cerastoderma edule) in the Oosterschelde described by a Dynamic Energy Budget model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wijsman, Johannes W. M.; Smaal, Aad C.

    2011-11-01

    A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for cockles is presented and calibrated using detailed data on cockle growth and water quality in the Oosterschelde. Cockles in the intertidal areas of the Oosterschelde have an important function as a food source for wading birds and as such for the natural values of the ecosystem. In the presented model, special attention is paid to the formulation and parameter estimation of the functional response. With this functional response, the food quantity and quality variables such as Chlorophyll- a, POM, POC and TPM are translated into food ingestion rate for the cockles. The calibration of the specific parameters included in this functional response is done using a detailed, long term dataset (1992-2007) of cockle growth in the Oosterschelde estuary. This dataset gives a good overview of the development of the cockle population in relation to the environmental conditions (food availability and ambient temperature). The DEB model was able to describe the spatial variation in cockle growth in the Oosterschelde as a function of environmental conditions and the parameters of the functional response. Both the data and the model show that growth performance of cockles is highest in the western and central part of the Oosterschelde due to the higher concentrations of Chlorophyll- a, which is an important food source for cockles. The model failed to describe the large variation in ash-free dry weight during the season. It is tested whether this is caused by aggregating the data by running the model for the full life cycle of year class 2001 at a specific location in the western part of the Oosterschelde. Finally, the model simulations have been compared to growth simulations obtained with an existing ecophysiological model for cockles in the Oosterschelde, the COCO model, with identical forcing. The COCO model showed higher growth in terms of shell length compared to the DEB model and the field observations.

  14. Advanced Modeling Techniques to Study Anthropogenic Influences on Atmospheric Chemical Budgets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mathur, Rohit

    1997-01-01

    This research work is a collaborative effort between research groups at MCNC and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. The overall objective of this research is to improve the level of understanding of the processes that determine the budgets of chemically and radiatively active compounds in the atmosphere through development and application of advanced methods for calculating the chemical change in atmospheric models. The research performed during the second year of this project focused on four major aspects: (1) The continued development and refinement of multiscale modeling techniques to address the issue of the disparate scales of the physico-chemical processes that govern the fate of atmospheric pollutants; (2) Development and application of analysis methods utilizing process and mass balance techniques to increase the interpretive powers of atmospheric models and to aid in complementary analysis of model predictions and observations; (3) Development of meteorological and emission inputs for initial application of the chemistry/transport model over the north Atlantic region; and, (4) The continued development and implementation of a totally new adaptive chemistry representation that changes the details of what is represented as the underlying conditions change.

  15. From Dreams to Dollars: Joining the Theory of Planning with the Practicality of Budget to Maximize Both

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dorsey, Myrtle E. B.

    2008-01-01

    The integrated online planning and budget development system at Baton Rouge Community College is an innovative approach to systematically link college strategic priorities and unit plan objectives with financial resources. Using two industry standards (Microsoft Access and Sungard Banner), a user-friendly program was developed that has facilitated…

  16. Budget Thoughts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bialostosky, Don

    2001-01-01

    Addresses budget issues in terms of "getting" and "spending." Notes that educators should not lay waste their powers in exchange for getting and spending. Notes that careful budget management is a necessary virtue, but it is not a sufficient virtue to win additional support. Suggests what to take to an annual budget hearing. (SG)

  17. Program Budgeting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagen, John

    Literature on program budgeting is synthesized. Program budgeting has progressed considerably in development and use, but only recently has it been used by the public schools. Program budgeting is practiced differently, depending on the mission of an organization or school district. With regard to schools, literature on the subject is mainly…

  18. ENSO-driven energy budget perturbations in observations and CMIP models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayer, Michael; Fasullo, John T.; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Haimberger, Leopold

    2016-03-01

    Various observation-based datasets are employed to robustly quantify changes in ocean heat content (OHC), anomalous ocean-atmosphere energy exchanges and atmospheric energy transports during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These results are used as a benchmark to evaluate the energy pathways during ENSO as simulated by coupled climate model runs from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives. The models are able to qualitatively reproduce observed patterns of ENSO-related energy budget variability to some degree, but key aspects are seriously biased. Area-averaged tropical Pacific OHC variability associated with ENSO is greatly underestimated by all models because of strongly biased responses of net radiation at top-of-the-atmosphere to ENSO. The latter are related to biases of mean convective activity in the models and project on surface energy fluxes in the eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone region. Moreover, models underestimate horizontal and vertical OHC redistribution in association with the generally too weak Bjerknes feedback, leading to a modeled ENSO affecting a too shallow layer of the Pacific. Vertical links between SST and OHC variability are too weak even in models driven with observed winds, indicating shortcomings of the ocean models. Furthermore, modeled teleconnections as measured by tropical Atlantic OHC variability are too weak and the tropical zonal mean ENSO signal is strongly underestimated or even completely missing in most of the considered models. Results suggest that attempts to infer insight about climate sensitivity from ENSO-related variability are likely to be hampered by biases in ENSO in CMIP simulations that do not bear a clear link to future changes.

  19. Precipitation recycling in West Africa - regional modeling, evaporation tagging and atmospheric water budget analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnault, Joel; Kunstmann, Harald; Knoche, Hans-Richard

    2015-04-01

    Many numerical studies have shown that the West African monsoon is highly sensitive to the state of the land surface. It is however questionable to which extend a local change of land surface properties would affect the local climate, especially with respect to precipitation. This issue is traditionally addressed with the concept of precipitation recycling, defined as the contribution of local surface evaporation to local precipitation. For this study the West African monsoon has been simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using explicit convection, for the domain (1°S-21°N, 18°W-14°E) at a spatial resolution of 10 km, for the period January-October 2013, and using ERA-Interim reanalyses as driving data. This WRF configuration has been selected for its ability to simulate monthly precipitation amounts and daily histograms close to TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data. In order to investigate precipitation recycling in this WRF simulation, surface evaporation tagging has been implemented in the WRF source code as well as the budget of total and tagged atmospheric water. Surface evaporation tagging consists in duplicating all water species and the respective prognostic equations in the source code. Then, tagged water species are set to zero at the lateral boundaries of the simulated domain (no inflow of tagged water vapor), and tagged surface evaporation is considered only in a specified region. All the source terms of the prognostic equations of total and tagged water species are finally saved in the outputs for the budget analysis. This allows quantifying the respective contribution of total and tagged atmospheric water to atmospheric precipitation processes. The WRF simulation with surface evaporation tagging and budgets has been conducted two times, first with a 100 km2 tagged region (11-12°N, 1-2°W), and second with a 1000 km2 tagged region (7-16°N, 6°W -3°E). In this presentation we will investigate hydro

  20. Graphical Model Theory for Wireless Sensor Networks

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, William B.

    2002-12-08

    Information processing in sensor networks, with many small processors, demands a theory of computation that allows the minimization of processing effort, and the distribution of this effort throughout the network. Graphical model theory provides a probabilistic theory of computation that explicitly addresses complexity and decentralization for optimizing network computation. The junction tree algorithm, for decentralized inference on graphical probability models, can be instantiated in a variety of applications useful for wireless sensor networks, including: sensor validation and fusion; data compression and channel coding; expert systems, with decentralized data structures, and efficient local queries; pattern classification, and machine learning. Graphical models for these applications are sketched, and a model of dynamic sensor validation and fusion is presented in more depth, to illustrate the junction tree algorithm.

  1. Internal variability of Earth’s energy budget simulated by CMIP5 climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palmer, M. D.; McNeall, D. J.

    2014-03-01

    We analyse a large number of multi-century pre-industrial control simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to investigate relationships between: net top-of-atmosphere radiation (TOA), globally averaged surface temperature (GST), and globally integrated ocean heat content (OHC) on decadal timescales. Consistent with previous studies, we find that large trends (˜0.3 K dec-1) in GST can arise from internal climate variability and that these trends are generally an unreliable indicator of TOA over the same period. In contrast, trends in total OHC explain 95% or more of the variance in TOA for two-thirds of the models analysed; emphasizing the oceans’ role as Earth’s primary energy store. Correlation of trends in total system energy (TE ≡ time integrated TOA) against trends in OHC suggests that for most models the ocean becomes the dominant term in the planetary energy budget on a timescale of about 12 months. In the context of the recent pause in global surface temperature rise, we investigate the potential importance of internal climate variability in both TOA and ocean heat rearrangement. The model simulations suggest that both factors can account for O (0.1 W m-2) on decadal timescales and may play an important role in the recently observed trends in GST and 0-700 m (and 0-1800 m) ocean heat uptake.

  2. Modelling Long-Term Changes of the Heat Budget and Chemistry near the Mesopause

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chabrillat, S.; Brasseur, G.; Fonteyn, D.

    Modelling studies have evaluated that the standard scenario of doubling CO2 has an important impact on the radiative budget of the mesosphere/lower thermosphere region (MLT) and could induce temperature changes comparable in magnitude to the effect of the 11-year solar cycle. Long-term observations of stratospheric water vapor and methane exhibit trends which should also influence the MLT. This effect is difficult to evaluate, because these trends in H2 O and CH4 can not be explained by current models of the middle atmosphere. Using SOCRATES, an interactive 2 D- model extending from the surface to the lower thermosphere, we study the sensitivity of the MLT region to each of these changes (CO2 , CH4 , H2 O, solar cycle) and to their combined effects.The focus is on the mesopause level, which coincides with a secondary maximum in ozone abundance. In order to quantify the transient response of the MLT to these changes, we run very long (100-year) simulations with long-term trends of the natural and anthropogenic forcings. D e to the currentu limitations in middle atmosphere modelling, we suppose that the dynamical forcing due to wave breaking remains constant from year to year, and we use stratospheric abundances of methane and water vapor based on observations. We discuss the estimated long-term change in ozone, heating and temperature at the mesopause, paying special attention to the trends at summer solstice and to the variations in the annual amplitudes of the seasonal cycles.

  3. Self Modeling: Expanding the Theories of Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dowrick, Peter W.

    2012-01-01

    Self modeling (SM) offers a unique expansion of learning theory. For several decades, a steady trickle of empirical studies has reported consistent evidence for the efficacy of SM as a procedure for positive behavior change across physical, social, educational, and diagnostic variations. SM became accepted as an extreme case of model similarity;…

  4. Application of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System to evaluate water budgets after forest fuel management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, A. M.; Micheletty, P. D.; Kinoshita, A. M.; Hogue, T. S.

    2014-12-01

    The Sagehen Experimental Forest is being used as a prototype for forest fuel management to mitigate severe wildfires and improve ecosystem function and habitat. Sagehen is located at the headwaters of Sagehen Creek and contributes to the Truckee River, which is the main water supply for Reno, Nevada. Sagehen is a snow-dominated basin that receives an average annual rainfall of 892 mm and streamflow of 392 mm. A standardized precipitation index (SPI) indicates eight wet years and three dry years occurred since 1978. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) is utilized to run scenarios of fuel treatments and to analyze corresponding water budget changes in Sagehen. PRMS is calibrated to observed streamflow using the systematic multi-objective, step-wise calibration software Let Us Calibrate (LUCA). The basin is divided into 128 hydrologic response units (HRUs) based on similar hydrologic and physical characteristics. Fuel management will include multiple thinning and burning treatments based on topography and ecosystem characteristics and coincides with approximately 41 percent of the defined HRUs. Three treatment scenarios were run for relevant HRUs for water years 1981-2000. Scenarios reflect a 25, 50, and 75 percent vegetation reduction by altering sensitive parameters such as summer and winter cover density, summer and winter rain-interception storage capacity, and snow-interception storage capacity. Preliminary analysis shows changes in the water budget exemplified by simulated streamflow compared to baseline simulations. Ongoing work includes investigating PRMS outputs such as evapotranspiration, snow, and recharge to fully understand the scope of proposed fuel management in Sagehen. Individual assessment of impacted HRUs will also provide insight on specific treatment types and ultimately provide insight for future regional treatments in the Sierra Nevada.

  5. Modeling long-term, large-scale sediment storage using a simple sediment budget approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naipal, Victoria; Reick, Christian; Van Oost, Kristof; Hoffmann, Thomas; Pongratz, Julia

    2016-05-01

    Currently, the anthropogenic perturbation of the biogeochemical cycles remains unquantified due to the poor representation of lateral fluxes of carbon and nutrients in Earth system models (ESMs). This lateral transport of carbon and nutrients between terrestrial ecosystems is strongly affected by accelerated soil erosion rates. However, the quantification of global soil erosion by rainfall and runoff, and the resulting redistribution is missing. This study aims at developing new tools and methods to estimate global soil erosion and redistribution by presenting and evaluating a new large-scale coarse-resolution sediment budget model that is compatible with ESMs. This model can simulate spatial patterns and long-term trends of soil redistribution in floodplains and on hillslopes, resulting from external forces such as climate and land use change. We applied the model to the Rhine catchment using climate and land cover data from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for the last millennium (here AD 850-2005). Validation is done using observed Holocene sediment storage data and observed scaling between sediment storage and catchment area. We find that the model reproduces the spatial distribution of floodplain sediment storage and the scaling behavior for floodplains and hillslopes as found in observations. After analyzing the dependence of the scaling behavior on the main parameters of the model, we argue that the scaling is an emergent feature of the model and mainly dependent on the underlying topography. Furthermore, we find that land use change is the main contributor to the change in sediment storage in the Rhine catchment during the last millennium. Land use change also explains most of the temporal variability in sediment storage in floodplains and on hillslopes.

  6. The AquaDEB project: Physiological flexibility of aquatic animals analysed with a generic dynamic energy budget model (phase II)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alunno-Bruscia, Marianne; van der Veer, Henk W.; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.

    2011-11-01

    This second special issue of the Journal of Sea Research on development and applications of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory concludes the European Research Project AquaDEB (2007-2011). In this introductory paper we summarise the progress made during the running time of this 5 years' project, present context for the papers in this volume and discuss future directions. The main scientific objectives in AquaDEB were (i) to study and compare the sensitivity of aquatic species (mainly molluscs and fish) to environmental variability within the context of DEB theory for metabolic organisation, and (ii) to evaluate the inter-relationships between different biological levels (individual, population, ecosystem) and temporal scales (life cycle, population dynamics, evolution). AquaDEB phase I focussed on quantifying bio-energetic processes of various aquatic species ( e.g. molluscs, fish, crustaceans, algae) and phase II on: (i) comparing of energetic and physiological strategies among species through the DEB parameter values and identifying the factors responsible for any differences in bioenergetics and physiology; (ii) considering different scenarios of environmental disruption (excess of nutrients, diffuse or massive pollution, exploitation by man, climate change) to forecast effects on growth, reproduction and survival of key species; (iii) scaling up the models for a few species from the individual level up to the level of evolutionary processes. Apart from the three special issues in the Journal of Sea Research — including the DEBIB collaboration (see vol. 65 issue 2), a theme issue on DEB theory appeared in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (vol 365, 2010); a large number of publications were produced; the third edition of the DEB book appeared (2010); open-source software was substantially expanded (over 1000 functions); a large open-source systematic collection of ecophysiological data and DEB parameters has been set up; and a series of DEB

  7. Evaluating Historic Carbon Budget in Temperate Pacific Northwestern Conifer Forest Landscape Using CN-CLASS Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, B.; Arain, M. A.; Black, T. A.

    2009-05-01

    We used carbon and nitrogen coupled Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CN-CLASS), a process-based model, to simulate the historic carbon stocks and fluxes in a 2500 ha temperate Pacific Northwest conifer forest landscape from 1920 to 2004. Hourly meteorological data was provided from historic climate records. Site maps of soils, topography, vegetation and disturbance type (logging, fire events) were provided by the historic carbon modeling project of the Canadian Carbon Program (CCP). The initial aboveground tree biomass in 1920 and the disturbance matrices were produced by the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3). Over the study period from 1920-2004, CN-CLASS simulated 188 Mg C ha-1 loss of ecosystem carbon as compared to 200 Mg C ha-1 loss suggested by CBM-CFS3. From 1928 to 1944, burning, historic harvest and slash burning resulted in large losses of carbon to the atmosphere. In this period, the study area was a large carbon source with simulated net carbon loss of 282 Mg C ha-1. From 1945 to 1989, there were very few disturbance events and the study area started to recover with simulated net carbon uptake of 87 Mg C ha-1. During this period, CN-CLASS modeled annual Net Biome Productivity (NBP) ranged from 27 g C m-2 y-1 in 1945 to 590 g C m-2 y-1 in 1964. CN-CLASS simulated summer (July-September) NEP deviations during the undisturbed period (1945-1989), showed a negative relationship with the daily maximum air temperature and precipitation. As harvest of second-growth stands began in 1990s, disturbance again had significant impact on the landscape's carbon budget, and this effect was partially offset by ongoing C uptake in recovering young stands. CN-CLASS underestimated NEP as compared to observed eddy covariance flux measurements because of high temperature sensitivity of its soil respiration algorithm. Simulated mean annual NEP from 1998 to 2004 was 190 g C m-2 y-1 as compared to observed eddy covariance value of 352 g C m-2 y-1. This

  8. The Legacy of Rational Budgeting Models in Education and a Proposal for the Future. Project Report No. 83-A21.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brackett, John; And Others

    This paper represents a backdrop from which to consider the development of a planning and budgeting model for local education agencies. The first part of the presentation describes the demands and external pressures that affect resource allocation decisions in school districts. The ability of local school officials to link the cost consequences…

  9. Use of a process-based model for assessing the methane budgets of global terrestrial ecosystems and evaluation of uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, A.; Inatomi, M.

    2012-02-01

    We assessed the global terrestrial budget of methane (CH4) by using a process-based biogeochemical model (VISIT) and inventory data for components of the budget that were not included in the model. Emissions from wetlands, paddy fields, biomass burning, and plants, as well as oxidative consumption by upland soils, were simulated by the model. Emissions from ruminant livestock and termites were evaluated by using an inventory approach. These CH4 flows were estimated for each of the model's 0.5° × 0.5° grid cells from 1901 to 2009, while accounting for atmospheric composition, meteorological factors, and land-use changes. Estimation uncertainties were examined through ensemble simulations using different parameterization schemes and input data (e.g., different wetland maps and emission factors). From 1996 to 2005, the average global terrestrial CH4 budget was estimated on the basis of 1152 simulations, and terrestrial ecosystems were found to be a net source of 308.3 ± 20.7 Tg CH4 yr-1. Wetland and livestock ruminant emissions were the primary sources. The results of our simulations indicate that sources and sinks are distributed highly heterogeneously over the Earth's land surface. Seasonal and interannual variability in the terrestrial budget was also assessed. The trend of increasing net emission from terrestrial sources and its relationship with temperature variability imply that terrestrial CH4 feedbacks will play an increasingly important role as a result of future climatic change.

  10. Boundary Layer Vertical Exchange Processes and the Mass Budget of Ozone: Observations and Model Results

    SciTech Connect

    Berkowitz, Carl M.; Fast, Jerome D.; Easter, Richard C.

    2000-06-16

    An Eulerian chemical model is used to assess the relative importance of a variety of processes associated with producing high surface ozone episodes during selected periods of the NARSTO 1995 field campaign over the northeastern United States. A comparison of the observed and predicted hourly surface ozone mixing ratios showed that the model qualitatively reproduced the observed ozone trends over the northeastern U.S. The model, however, over-predicted the surface concentrations by 10 to 15 ppb. The simulated mass budget tendency terms are compared for days with low ozone values immediately followed by days with high values. The later days showed observed and simulated ozone mixing ratios aloft to be of order twice that found on preceding days, although the associated chemical mix appeared to have relatively little potential for the subsequent generation of "new" ozone. Under conditions of shallow mixing over urban regions, simulated surface ozone production rates were negative (a net loss) throughout much of the day with convective mixing bringing newly produced ozone from aloft to the surface. It is noted that surface ozone levels appeared to be relatively insensitive to mixing layer growth rates.

  11. Dynamic energy budget model: a monitoring tool for growth and reproduction performance of Mytilus galloprovincialis in Bizerte Lagoon (Southwestern Mediterranean Sea).

    PubMed

    Béjaoui-Omri, Amel; Béjaoui, Béchir; Harzallah, Ali; Aloui-Béjaoui, Nejla; El Bour, Monia; Aleya, Lotfi

    2014-11-01

    Mussel farming is the main economic activity in Bizerte Lagoon, with a production that fluctuates depending on environmental factors. In the present study, we apply a bioenergetic growth model to the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis, based on dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory which describes energy flux variation through the different compartments of the mussel body. Thus, the present model simulates both mussel growth and sexual cycle steps according to food availability and water temperature and also the effect of climate change on mussel behavior and reproduction. The results point to good concordance between simulations and growth parameters (metric length and weight) for mussels in the lagoon. A heat wave scenario was also simulated using the DEB model, which highlighted mussel mortality periods during a period of high temperature. PMID:24996947

  12. Measurements, Fingerprint, Modeling - Compiling a sediment budget in a data scarce catchment in NW Jordan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kraushaar, Sabine; Schumann, Thomas; Wilkinson, Scott; Ollesch, Gregor; Siebert, Christian; Vogel, Hans-Jörg

    2013-04-01

    In regard to the quantitative and qualitative water problems in Jordan the soil layer and its physical integrity is important to slow down runoff, guarantee infiltration, and a sensible parameter in terms of hydrologic modeling. Erosion harms this potential and needs to be better understood and quantified in the region. Therefore, a multiple response approach was implemented to compile a sediment budget for the research area Wadi Al-Arab in the NW of Jordan (263,5km2). The climate is Mediterranean to semi-arid with <300 to 550mm of rain in winter. Mainly marl and limestone of the Upper Cretaceous and the Paleocene make up the catchment's geology. The area is characterized by an agricultural basin in the east and an increase in relief energy to the west and south. Different field measurements were implemented on relevant sediment sources, such as olive orchards, agricultural fields, natural vegetated slopes and exposed rock with patchy vegetation as well as the Wadi Al Arab Dam Lake as the final sink. The focus involved the quantification of the yearly sediment yields and the deposition in the lake, respectively. In a second step a multiple sediment fingerprint was applied including the geochemical differentiation of the sources with inorganic elements and radio nuclides. The relative importance of each source could be calculated on the basis of lake sediment samples. Results of these two approaches cover different spatial scales and only partly integrate the transport way. Hence, they cannot be directly compared but consider the problem from different perspectives and are used in the final step to calibrate and validate the setup of the SedNet model (Wilkinson et al. 2008) for the catchment. The model offers the possibility to incorporate additional raster information, includes additional sources such as gully and bank erosion, and takes account for different areas of deposition according to the measured and regionalized discharge in the region. Its' implementation

  13. Towards a regional CO2 budget for New Zealand from atmospheric measurements and backward Lagrangian modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinkamp, K.; Mikaloff-Fletcher, S.; Brailsford, G. W.; Moore, S.

    2013-12-01

    Between 1990 and 2011, the reported average annual growth in total greenhouse gas emissions had been 1.0% for New Zealand, with emissions reaching 73 Mt CO2-e in 2011. At the same time the net emissions (total plus LULUCF) grew by 4.2% each year on average and reached 59 Mt CO2-e in 2011, according to the Ministry for the Environment. This implies a shrinking sink for greenhouse gases in areas of land use/ land use change and forests (LULUCF). The uptake of CO2 by forests is the largest contributor to this sink and, therefore, plays a crucial role in New Zealand's carbon budget. Yet, it is among the least well-known components. In this study, we aim to develop a regional atmosphere inversion system to estimate net CO2 uptake by land areas in 2011 and 2012. This will serve as an alternative to the bottom-up estimates outlined above. We use the UK Met Office's Lagrangian dispersion model NAME III to link CO2 measurements at stations directly to atmospheric transport and potential source regions at the surface. By running the model in backward mode, we identify the degree to which potential regional sources of CO2 contribute to observed mid-afternoon mixing ratios, i.e., the footprint of a station. Footprints are computed over 2011-2012 for three stations across New Zealand: Baring Head, Lauder and Rainbow Mountain. NAME III uses hourly meteorological input from the regional forecast model NZLAM-12 over a domain covering New Zealand and the Tasman Sea at a horizontal resolution of 12 km. The footprints are then used in a regional inversion to find the optimal distribution of CO2 sources and sinks, i.e., the one leading to the best match with the measurements at all stations. We present results from the footprint analysis and show that the three stations are sensitive to distinct source regions that do not overlap and, together, cover large parts of New Zealand. Hence, the data from the stations carry complementary information on CO2 sinks in sources throughout the

  14. An information theory approach for evaluating earth radiation budget (ERB) measurements - Nonuniform sampling of diurnal longwave flux variations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halyo, Nesim; Direskeneli, Haldun; Barkstrom, Bruce R.

    1991-01-01

    Satellite measurements are subject to a wide range of uncertainties due to their temporal, spatial, and directional sampling characteristics. An information-theory approach is suggested to examine the nonuniform temporal sampling of ERB measurements. The information (i.e., its entropy or uncertainty) before and after the measurements is determined, and information gain (IG) is defined as a reduction in the uncertainties involved. A stochastic model for the diurnal outgoing flux variations that affect the ERB is developed. Using Gaussian distributions for the a priori and measured radiant exitance fields, the IG is obtained by computing the a posteriori covariance. The IG for the monthly outgoing flux measurements is examined for different orbital parameters and orbital tracks, using the Earth Observing System orbital parameters as specific examples. Variations in IG due to changes in the orbit's inclination angle and the initial ascending node local time are investigated.

  15. Carbon budget estimation of a subarctic catchment using a dynamic ecosystem model at high spatial resolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, J.; Miller, P. A.; Persson, A.; Olefeldt, D.; Pilesjo, P.; Heliasz, M.; Jackowicz-Korczynski, M.; Yang, Z.; Smith, B.; Callaghan, T. V.; Christensen, T. R.

    2015-05-01

    A large amount of organic carbon is stored in high-latitude soils. A substantial proportion of this carbon stock is vulnerable and may decompose rapidly due to temperature increases that are already greater than the global average. It is therefore crucial to quantify and understand carbon exchange between the atmosphere and subarctic/arctic ecosystems. In this paper, we combine an Arctic-enabled version of the process-based dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS (version LPJG-WHyMe-TFM) with comprehensive observations of terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes to simulate long-term carbon exchange in a subarctic catchment at 50 m resolution. Integrating the observed carbon fluxes from aquatic systems with the modeled terrestrial carbon fluxes across the whole catchment, we estimate that the area is a carbon sink at present and will become an even stronger carbon sink by 2080, which is mainly a result of a projected densification of birch forest and its encroachment into tundra heath. However, the magnitudes of the modeled sinks are very dependent on future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Furthermore, comparisons of global warming potentials between two simulations with and without CO2 increase since 1960 reveal that the increased methane emission from the peatland could double the warming effects of the whole catchment by 2080 in the absence of CO2 fertilization of the vegetation. This is the first process-based model study of the temporal evolution of a catchment-level carbon budget at high spatial resolution, including both terrestrial and aquatic carbon. Though this study also highlights some limitations in modeling subarctic ecosystem responses to climate change, such as aquatic system flux dynamics, nutrient limitation, herbivory and other disturbances, and peatland expansion, our study provides one process-based approach to resolve the complexity of carbon cycling in subarctic ecosystems while simultaneously pointing out the key model developments for capturing

  16. Public Health and Budget Impact of Probiotics on Common Respiratory Tract Infections: A Modelling Study

    PubMed Central

    Lenoir-Wijnkoop, Irene; Gerlier, Laetitia; Bresson, Jean-Louis; Le Pen, Claude; Berdeaux, Gilles

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Two recent meta-analyses by the York Health Economics Consortium (YHEC) and Cochrane demonstrated probiotic efficacy in reducing the duration and number of common respiratory tract infections (CRTI) and associated antibiotic prescriptions. A health-economic analysis was undertaken to estimate the public health and budget consequences of a generalized probiotic consumption in France. Methods A virtual age- and gender-standardized population was generated using a Markov microsimulation model. CRTI risk factors incorporated into this model were age, active/passive smoking and living in a community setting. Incidence rates and resource utilization were based on the 2011-2012 flu season and retrieved from the French GPs Sentinelles network. Results of both meta-analyses were independently applied to the French population to estimate CRTI events, assuming a generalized probiotic use compared to no probiotics during winter months: -0.77 days/CRTI episode (YHEC scenario) or odds-ratio 0.58 for ≥1 CRTI episode (Cochrane scenario) with vs. without probiotics. Economic perspectives were National Health System (NHS), society, family. Outcomes included cost savings related to the reduced numbers of CRTI episodes, days of illness, number of antibiotic courses, sick leave days, medical and indirect costs. Results For France, generalized probiotic use would save 2.4 million CRTI-days, 291,000 antibiotic courses and 581,000 sick leave days, based on YHEC data. Applying the Cochrane data, reductions were 6.6 million CRTI days, 473,000 antibiotic courses and 1.5 million sick days. From the NHS perspective, probiotics’ economic impact was about €14.6 million saved according to YHEC and €37.7 million according to Cochrane. Higher savings were observed in children, active smokers and people with more frequent human contacts. Conclusions Public health and budget impact of probiotics are substantial, whether they reduce CRTI episodes frequency or duration. Noteworthy

  17. Forecasting Rainfall Induced Landslide using High Resolution DEM and Simple Water Budget Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luzon, P. K. D.; Lagmay, A. M. F. A.

    2014-12-01

    Philippines is hit by an average of 20 typhoons per year bringing large amount of rainfall. Monsoon carrying rain coming from the southwest of the country also contributes to the annual total rainfall that causes different hazards. Such is shallow landslide mainly triggered by high saturation of soil due to continuous downpour which could take up from hours to days. Recent event like this happened in Zambales province September of 2013 where torrential rain occurred for 24 hours amounting to half a month of rain. Rainfall intensity measured by the nearest weather station averaged to 21 mm/hr from 10 pm of 22 until 10 am the following day. The monsoon rains was intensified by the presence of Typhoon Usagi positioned north and heading northwest of the country. A number of landslides due to this happened in 3 different municipalities; Subic, San Marcelino and Castillejos. The disaster have taken 30 lives from the province. Monitoring these areas for the entire country is but a big challenge in all aspect of disaster preparedness and management. The approach of this paper is utilizing the available forecast of rainfall amount to monitor highly hazardous area during the rainy seasons and forecasting possible landslide that could happen. A simple water budget model following the equation Perct=Pt-R/Ot-∆STt-AETt (where as the terms are Percolation, Runoff, Change in Storage, and Actual Evapotraspiration) was implemented in quantifying all the water budget component. Computations are in Python scripted grid system utilizing the widely used GIS forms for easy transfer of data and faster calculation. Results of successive runs will let percolation and change in water storage as indicators of possible landslide.. This approach needs three primary sets of data; weather data, topographic data, and soil parameters. This research uses 5 m resolution DEM (IfSAR) to define the topography. Soil parameters are from fieldworks conducted. Weather data are from the Philippine

  18. Model for a fundamental theory with supersymmetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yokoo, Seiichiro

    Physics in the year 2006 is tightly constrained by experiment, observation, and mathematical consistency. The Standard Model provides a remarkably precise description of particle physics, and general relativity is quite successful in describing gravitational phenomena. At the same time, it is clear that a more fundamental theory is needed for several distinct reasons. Here we consider a new approach, which begins with the unusually ambitious point of view that a truly fundamental theory should aspire to explaining the origins of Lorentz invariance, gravity, gauge fields and their symmetry, supersymmetry, fermionic fields, bosonic fields, quantum mechanics and spacetime. The present dissertation is organized so that it starts with the most conventional ideas for extending the Standard Model and ends with a microscopic statistical picture, which is actually the logical starting point of the theory, but which is also the most remote excursion from conventional physics. One motivation for the present work is the fact that a Euclidean path integral in quantum physics is equivalent to a partition function in statistical physics. This suggests that the most fundamental description of nature may be statistical. This dissertation may be regarded as an attempt to see how far one can go with this premise in explaining the observed phenomena, starting with the simplest statistical picture imaginable. It may be that nature is richer than the model assumed here, but the present results are quite suggestive, because, with a set of assumptions that are not unreasonable, one recovers the phenomena listed above. At the end, the present theory leads back to conventional physics, except that Lorentz invariance and supersymmetry are violated at extremely high energy. To be more specific, one obtains local Lorentz invariance (at low energy compared to the Planck scale), an SO( N) unified gauge theory (with N = 10 as the simplest possibility), supersymmetry of Standard Model fermions and

  19. Modelling shellfish growth with dynamic energy budget models: an application for cockles and mussels in the Oosterschelde (southwest Netherlands).

    PubMed

    Troost, T A; Wijsman, J W M; Saraiva, S; Freitas, V

    2010-11-12

    Dynamic energy budget models for growth of individual cockles (Cerastoderma edule) and mussels (Mytilus edulis) are adjusted and calibrated to the Oosterschelde by formulating and parametrizing their functional responses using an extensive set of field observations. The resulting model predictions fit the observations satisfactorily. Results indicate that food quality and the importance of detritus as a food source are site-specific as well as species-specific. Despite these differences in their calibrated parameter values, both species show a very similar functional response. Compared with other systems, however, the functional responses of mussels in the present study are clearly higher than those of mussels in other systems. This may be explained by the absence of intra-specific competition in the measurement set-up that was used, and therefore supports the idea that the generally small functional response of M. edulis is caused by intra-specific competition. PMID:20921054

  20. Modelling shellfish growth with dynamic energy budget models: an application for cockles and mussels in the Oosterschelde (southwest Netherlands)

    PubMed Central

    Troost, T. A.; Wijsman, J. W. M.; Saraiva, S.; Freitas, V.

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic energy budget models for growth of individual cockles (Cerastoderma edule) and mussels (Mytilus edulis) are adjusted and calibrated to the Oosterschelde by formulating and parametrizing their functional responses using an extensive set of field observations. The resulting model predictions fit the observations satisfactorily. Results indicate that food quality and the importance of detritus as a food source are site-specific as well as species-specific. Despite these differences in their calibrated parameter values, both species show a very similar functional response. Compared with other systems, however, the functional responses of mussels in the present study are clearly higher than those of mussels in other systems. This may be explained by the absence of intra-specific competition in the measurement set-up that was used, and therefore supports the idea that the generally small functional response of M. edulis is caused by intra-specific competition. PMID:20921054

  1. Recursive renormalization group theory based subgrid modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhou, YE

    1991-01-01

    Advancing the knowledge and understanding of turbulence theory is addressed. Specific problems to be addressed will include studies of subgrid models to understand the effects of unresolved small scale dynamics on the large scale motion which, if successful, might substantially reduce the number of degrees of freedom that need to be computed in turbulence simulation.

  2. Engaging Theories and Models to Inform Practice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kraus, Amanda

    2012-01-01

    Helping students prepare for the complex transition to life after graduation is an important responsibility shared by those in student affairs and others in higher education. This chapter explores theories and models that can inform student affairs practitioners and faculty in preparing students for life after college. The focus is on roles,…

  3. Aligning Grammatical Theories and Language Processing Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis, Shevaun; Phillips, Colin

    2015-01-01

    We address two important questions about the relationship between theoretical linguistics and psycholinguistics. First, do grammatical theories and language processing models describe separate cognitive systems, or are they accounts of different aspects of the same system? We argue that most evidence is consistent with the one-system view. Second,…

  4. A Catastrophe Theory Model of Attitude Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flay, Brian R.

    Within the large body of literature on attitude change, many diverse and sometimes apparently conflicting findings have been reported. A catastrophe theory model of attitude change that attempts to synthesize many of these diverse findings is proposed. Attitude change is usually monotonic with message content or the strength of the persuasion…

  5. Calibration, Sensor Model Improvements and Uncertainty Budget of the Airborne Imaging Spectrometer APEX

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hueni, A.

    2015-12-01

    ESA's Airborne Imaging Spectrometer APEX (Airborne Prism Experiment) was developed under the PRODEX (PROgramme de Développement d'EXpériences scientifiques) program by a Swiss-Belgian consortium and entered its operational phase at the end of 2010 (Schaepman et al., 2015). Work on the sensor model has been carried out extensively within the framework of European Metrology Research Program as part of the Metrology for Earth Observation and Climate (MetEOC and MetEOC2). The focus has been to improve laboratory calibration procedures in order to reduce uncertainties, to establish a laboratory uncertainty budget and to upgrade the sensor model to compensate for sensor specific biases. The updated sensor model relies largely on data collected during dedicated characterisation experiments in the APEX calibration home base but includes airborne data as well where the simulation of environmental conditions in the given laboratory setup was not feasible. The additions to the model deal with artefacts caused by environmental changes and electronic features, namely the impact of ambient air pressure changes on the radiometry in combination with dichroic coatings, influences of external air temperatures and consequently instrument baffle temperatures on the radiometry, and electronic anomalies causing radiometric errors in the four shortwave infrared detector readout blocks. Many of these resolved issues might be expected to be present in other imaging spectrometers to some degree or in some variation. Consequently, the work clearly shows the difficulties of extending a laboratory-based uncertainty to data collected under in-flight conditions. The results are hence not only of interest to the calibration scientist but also to the spectroscopy end user, in particular when commercial sensor systems are used for data collection and relevant sensor characteristic information tends to be sparse. Schaepman, et al, 2015. Advanced radiometry measurements and Earth science

  6. Measurements of hydroxyl and hydroperoxy radicals during CalNex-LA: Model comparisons and radical budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffith, S. M.; Hansen, R. F.; Dusanter, S.; Michoud, V.; Gilman, J. B.; Kuster, W. C.; Veres, P. R.; Graus, M.; Gouw, J. A.; Roberts, J.; Young, C.; Washenfelder, R.; Brown, S. S.; Thalman, R.; Waxman, E.; Volkamer, R.; Tsai, C.; Stutz, J.; Flynn, J. H.; Grossberg, N.; Lefer, B.; Alvarez, S. L.; Rappenglueck, B.; Mielke, L. H.; Osthoff, H. D.; Stevens, P. S.

    2016-04-01

    Measurements of hydroxyl (OH) and hydroperoxy (HO2*) radical concentrations were made at the Pasadena ground site during the CalNex-LA 2010 campaign using the laser-induced fluorescence-fluorescence assay by gas expansion technique. The measured concentrations of OH and HO2* exhibited a distinct weekend effect, with higher radical concentrations observed on the weekends corresponding to lower levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx). The radical measurements were compared to results from a zero-dimensional model using the Regional Atmospheric Chemical Mechanism-2 constrained by NOx and other measured trace gases. The chemical model overpredicted measured OH concentrations during the weekends by a factor of approximately 1.4 ± 0.3 (1σ), but the agreement was better during the weekdays (ratio of 1.0 ± 0.2). Model predicted HO2* concentrations underpredicted by a factor of 1.3 ± 0.2 on the weekends, while measured weekday concentrations were underpredicted by a factor of 3.0 ± 0.5. However, increasing the modeled OH reactivity to match the measured total OH reactivity improved the overall agreement for both OH and HO2* on all days. A radical budget analysis suggests that photolysis of carbonyls and formaldehyde together accounted for approximately 40% of radical initiation with photolysis of nitrous acid accounting for 30% at the measurement height and ozone photolysis contributing less than 20%. An analysis of the ozone production sensitivity reveals that during the week, ozone production was limited by volatile organic compounds throughout the day during the campaign but NOx limited during the afternoon on the weekends.

  7. Theory and modeling of stellar atmospheres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hubeny, Ivan

    2010-08-01

    I will briefly outline basic concepts of the stellar atmospheres theory. After summarizing basic structural equations describing a stellar atmospheres, an emphasis is given to describing efficient numerical methods developed to deal with the stellar atmosphere problem, namely the method of complete linearization ant its recent variants, and the whole class of methods known by name Accelerated Lambda Iteration. In the next part of the lectures I will briefly summarize existing computer codes, with an emphasis on our code TLUSTY, and list some of the most useful grids of model atmospheres that are publicly available. Next, I will show how the model atmospheres and synthetic spectra are used in quantitative stellar spectroscopy in order to determine basic stellar parameters and chemical abundances. Finally, I will briefly describe an application of model atmosphere theory and models to related objects, such as accretion disks around various accretors, and atmospheres of substellar-mass objects-extrasolar giant planets and brown dwarfs.

  8. Chesapeake Bay nitrogen fluxes derived from a land-estuarine ocean biogeochemical modeling system: Model description, evaluation, and nitrogen budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Yang; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Wilkin, John; Tian, Hanqin; Yang, Qichun; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Wiggert, Jerry D.; Hood, Raleigh R.

    2015-08-01

    The Chesapeake Bay plays an important role in transforming riverine nutrients before they are exported to the adjacent continental shelf. Although the mean nitrogen budget of the Chesapeake Bay has been previously estimated from observations, uncertainties associated with interannually varying hydrological conditions remain. In this study, a land-estuarine-ocean biogeochemical modeling system is developed to quantify Chesapeake riverine nitrogen inputs, within-estuary nitrogen transformation processes and the ultimate export of nitrogen to the coastal ocean. Model skill was evaluated using extensive in situ and satellite-derived data, and a simulation using environmental conditions for 2001-2005 was conducted to quantify the Chesapeake Bay nitrogen budget. The 5 year simulation was characterized by large riverine inputs of nitrogen (154 × 109 g N yr-1) split roughly 60:40 between inorganic:organic components. Much of this was denitrified (34 × 109 g N yr-1) and buried (46 × 109 g N yr-1) within the estuarine system. A positive net annual ecosystem production for the bay further contributed to a large advective export of organic nitrogen to the shelf (91 × 109 g N yr-1) and negligible inorganic nitrogen export. Interannual variability was strong, particularly for the riverine nitrogen fluxes. In years with higher than average riverine nitrogen inputs, most of this excess nitrogen (50-60%) was exported from the bay as organic nitrogen, with the remaining split between burial, denitrification, and inorganic export to the coastal ocean. In comparison to previous simulations using generic shelf biogeochemical model formulations inside the estuary, the estuarine biogeochemical model described here produced more realistic and significantly greater exports of organic nitrogen and lower exports of inorganic nitrogen to the shelf.

  9. Theory, Modeling, and Simulation of Semiconductor Lasers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ning, Cun-Zheng; Saini, Subbash (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    Semiconductor lasers play very important roles in many areas of information technology. In this talk, I will first give an overview of semiconductor laser theory. This will be followed by a description of different models and their shortcomings in modeling and simulation. Our recent efforts in constructing a fully space and time resolved simulation model will then be described. Simulation results based on our model will be presented. Finally the effort towards a self-consistent and comprehensive simulation capability for the opto-electronics integrated circuits (OEICs) will be briefly reviewed.

  10. Effects of CO2 enrichment on cockle shell growth interpreted with a Dynamic Energy Budget model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klok, Chris; Wijsman, Jeroen W. M.; Kaag, Klaas; Foekema, Edwin

    2014-11-01

    The increase in human induced atmospheric CO2 level leads to an increase in ocean acidification (OA). Mitigation of this increase by storage of CO2 in abandoned marine oil and gas reservoirs is seen as an interesting cost effective solution. However, this involves a risk of CO2 loss causing localised reductions in seawater pH. In this paper we report on the effects of CO2 enhancement on the growth of the bivalve Cerastoderma edule in mesocosms. The experiments show significant reductions in shell length, shell weight and cockle flesh dry weight at increased CO2 level suggesting both direct (shell erosion) and indirect (metabolic) effects. Indirect effects were analysed and interpreted using a Dynamic Energy Budget model by describing changes in 3 metabolic processes: assimilation, maintenance, and growth. Based on cockle size data only we could not differentiate between these processes, however, by using variability of DEB parameter values in 11 bivalve species, we showed growth to be the least relevant process.

  11. Earth radiation budget from a surface perspective and its representation in CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wild, M.

    2012-04-01

    The genesis and evolution of Earth's climate is largely regulated by the global energy balance. Despite the central importance of the global energy balance for the climate system and climate change, substantial uncertainties still exist in the quantification of its different components, and their representation in climate models (e.g., Wild et al. 1998 Clim. Dyn., Wild 2008 Tellus). While the net radiative energy flow in and out of the climate system at the top of atmosphere (TOA) is known with considerable accuracy from new satellite programs such as CERES, much less is known about the energy distribution within the climate system and at the Earth surface. Here we use direct surface observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) to provide better constraints on the surface radiative components as well as to investigate their temporal changes. We analyze radiation budgets of the latest generation of global climate models as used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and in the upcoming Fifth IPCC assessment report (IPCCAR5). Compared to a comprehensive set of surface observations, the CMIP5 models overestimate the shortwave radiation incident at the surface by 5-10 Wm-2 on average, due to a lack of absorption in the atmosphere. This suggests that the best estimate for the global mean absorbed shortwave radiation at the surface should be lower than the simulated estimates, which are on average slightly below 170 Wm-2, so that a value of no more than 160 Wm-2 might be the most realistic estimate for the global mean absorbed shortwave radiation at the surface. In contrast, the longwave downward radiation at the surface is underestimated by a similar amount in these models, suggesting that the best estimate for the global mean downward longwave radiation should be rather around 345 Wm-2 than the model average of 338 Wm-2. There is further increasing evidence from the direct

  12. Application of model search to lattice theory.

    SciTech Connect

    Rose, M.; Wilkinson, K.; Mathematics and Computer Science

    2001-08-01

    We have used the first-order model-searching programs MACE and SEM to study various problems in lattice theory. First, we present a case study in which the two programs are used to examine the differences between the stages along the way from lattice theory to Boolean algebra. Second, we answer several questions posed by Norman Megill and Mladen Pavicic on ortholattices and orthomodular lattices. The questions from Megill and Pavicic arose in their study of quantum logics, which are being investigated in connection with proposed computing devices based on quantum mechanics. Previous questions of a similar nature were answered by McCune and MACE in [2].

  13. Global atmospheric sulfur budget under volcanically quiescent conditions: Aerosol-chemistry-climate model predictions and validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheng, Jian-Xiong; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Luo, Bei-Ping; Rozanov, Eugene; Stenke, Andrea; Anet, Julien; Bingemer, Heinz; Peter, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    The global atmospheric sulfur budget and its emission dependence have been investigated using the coupled aerosol-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-AER. The aerosol module comprises gaseous and aqueous sulfur chemistry and comprehensive microphysics. The particle distribution is resolved by 40 size bins spanning radii from 0.39 nm to 3.2 μm, including size-dependent particle composition. Aerosol radiative properties required by the climate model are calculated online from the aerosol module. The model successfully reproduces main features of stratospheric aerosols under nonvolcanic conditions, including aerosol extinctions compared to Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) and Halogen Occultation Experiment, and size distributions compared to in situ measurements. The calculated stratospheric aerosol burden is 109 Gg of sulfur, matching the SAGE II-based estimate (112 Gg). In terms of fluxes through the tropopause, the stratospheric aerosol layer is due to about 43% primary tropospheric aerosol, 28% SO2, 23% carbonyl sulfide (OCS), 4% H2S, and 2% dimethyl sulfide (DMS). Turning off emissions of the short-lived species SO2, H2S, and DMS shows that OCS alone still establishes about 56% of the original stratospheric aerosol burden. Further sensitivity simulations reveal that anticipated increases in anthropogenic SO2 emissions in China and India have a larger influence on stratospheric aerosols than the same increase in Western Europe or the U.S., due to deep convection in the western Pacific region. However, even a doubling of Chinese and Indian emissions is predicted to increase the stratospheric background aerosol burden only by 9%. In contrast, small to moderate volcanic eruptions, such as that of Nabro in 2011, may easily double the stratospheric aerosol loading.

  14. Density Functional Theory Models for Radiation Damage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dudarev, S. L.

    2013-07-01

    Density functional theory models developed over the past decade provide unique information about the structure of nanoscale defects produced by irradiation and about the nature of short-range interaction between radiation defects, clustering of defects, and their migration pathways. These ab initio models, involving no experimental input parameters, appear to be as quantitatively accurate and informative as the most advanced experimental techniques developed for the observation of radiation damage phenomena. Density functional theory models have effectively created a new paradigm for the scientific investigation and assessment of radiation damage effects, offering new insight into the origin of temperature- and dose-dependent response of materials to irradiation, a problem of pivotal significance for applications.

  15. Continental scale atmospheric and terrestrial water budget modeling and comparison to GRACE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fersch, B.; Kunstmann, H.; Sneeuw, N.; Devaraju, B.

    2009-04-01

    2008, correlations between monthly GRACE derived and regionally modeled water storage changes are shown for the mentioned areas. Also, the uncertainty bounds of the atmospheric moisture flux computations that arise from different atmospheric driving data (NCEP Reanalysis, ECMWF Operational Analysis, ECMWF ERA-INTERIM) are estimated. Also, the effects of different sea surface temperature data and nudging towards global datasets will be depicted. Furthermore, the estimated water budgets are compared to weekly GRACE solutions that have become available in late 2008 by GFZ Potsdam.

  16. Controls on the Southern Ocean mixed layer salinity budget in CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Close, Sally; Goosse, Hugues

    2013-04-01

    Global-scale changes in upper ocean salinity, driven by changes in freshwater forcing, are both predicted by climate models as a feature of the climatic response to anthropogenic climate change and reported by a number of recent observation-based studies. In the extrapolar regions, such change has been predominantly attributed to changes in the hydrological cycle. However, in the high latitudes, changes in sea ice coverage may also provide a significant source of freshwater forcing. Variations in mixed layer properties have wide-reaching influence, affecting, for example, oceanic heat storage and the rates of exchange between the atmosphere and deeper ocean. It has further been suggested that heat supplied by the deep ocean may have a significant influence on the cryosphere, indicating that a good understanding of the behaviour of the Southern Ocean mixed layer is crucial to describing the climate of this region. Our aims in this work are to assess the dominant mechanisms that drive salinity variability in the Southern Ocean mixed layer using model data and to further examine the relationship between mixed layer and sea ice variability. In this study, the evolution of the upper Southern Ocean hydrographic structure in response to the RCP4.5 forcing scenario is analyzed using model data drawn from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. A robust freshening trend is evident, associated with an increase in stratification and decoupling of the upper ocean as the mixed layer gains buoyancy at a faster rate than the underlying ocean. The magnitudes of the individual terms of the salinity budget are evaluated, and significant discrepancy noted amongst the models analysed here. Motivated by the important role of entrainment suggested by this analysis, we examine the relationship between the weakening entrainment rate, decreasing sea ice coverage and increases in heat storage at depth that are evident in the model data. Our analysis suggests that the

  17. Carbon budget estimation of a subarctic catchment using a dynamic ecosystem model at high spatial resolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, J.; Miller, P. A.; Persson, A.; Olefeldt, D.; Pilesjö, P.; Heliasz, M.; Jackowicz-Korczynski, M.; Yang, Z.; Smith, B.; Callaghan, T. V.; Christensen, T. R.

    2015-01-01

    Large amount of organic carbon is stored in high latitude soils. A substantial proportion of this carbon stock is vulnerable and may decompose rapidly due to temperature increases that are already greater than the global average. It is therefore crucial to quantify and understand carbon exchange between the atmosphere and subarctic/arctic ecosystems. In this paper, we combine an arctic-enabled version of the process-based dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS (version LPJG-WHyMe-TFM) with comprehensive observations of terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes to simulate long-term carbon exchange in a subarctic catchment comprising both mineral and peatland soils. The model is applied at 50 m resolution and is shown to be able to capture the seasonality and magnitudes of observed fluxes at this fine scale. The modelled magnitudes of CO2 uptake generally follow the descending sequence: birch forest, non-permafrost Eriophorum, Sphagnum and then tundra heath during the observation periods. The catchment-level carbon fluxes from aquatic systems are dominated by CO2 emissions from streams. Integrated across the whole catchment, we estimate that the area is a carbon sink at present, and will become an even stronger carbon sink by 2080, which is mainly a result of a projected densification of birch forest and its encroachment into tundra heath. However, the magnitudes of the modelled sinks are very dependent on future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Furthermore, comparisons of global warming potentials between two simulations with and without CO2 increase since 1960 reveal that the increased methane emission from the peatland could double the warming effects of the whole catchment by 2080 in the absence of CO2 fertilization of the vegetation. This is the first process-based model study of the temporal evolution of a catchment-level carbon budget at high spatial resolution, integrating comprehensive and diverse fluxes including both terrestrial and aquatic carbon. Though this

  18. Crack propagation modeling using Peridynamic theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hafezi, M. H.; Alebrahim, R.; Kundu, T.

    2016-04-01

    Crack propagation and branching are modeled using nonlocal peridynamic theory. One major advantage of this nonlocal theory based analysis tool is the unifying approach towards material behavior modeling - irrespective of whether the crack is formed in the material or not. No separate damage law is needed for crack initiation and propagation. This theory overcomes the weaknesses of existing continuum mechanics based numerical tools (e.g. FEM, XFEM etc.) for identifying fracture modes and does not require any simplifying assumptions. Cracks grow autonomously and not necessarily along a prescribed path. However, in some special situations such as in case of ductile fracture, the damage evolution and failure depend on parameters characterizing the local stress state instead of peridynamic damage modeling technique developed for brittle fracture. For brittle fracture modeling the bond is simply broken when the failure criterion is satisfied. This simulation helps us to design more reliable modeling tool for crack propagation and branching in both brittle and ductile materials. Peridynamic analysis has been found to be very demanding computationally, particularly for real-world structures (e.g. vehicles, aircrafts, etc.). It also requires a very expensive visualization process. The goal of this paper is to bring awareness to researchers the impact of this cutting-edge simulation tool for a better understanding of the cracked material response. A computer code has been developed to implement the peridynamic theory based modeling tool for two-dimensional analysis. A good agreement between our predictions and previously published results is observed. Some interesting new results that have not been reported earlier by others are also obtained and presented in this paper. The final objective of this investigation is to increase the mechanics knowledge of self-similar and self-affine cracks.

  19. Regional differences in the surface energy budget over China: an evaluation of a selection of CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Lian-Tong; Du, Zhencai

    2016-04-01

    The present study provides an evaluation of the regional differences over China in surface energy budget components as simulated by a selection of models from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), covering the period 1960-2005. Similarities and differences exist among the models in terms of both spatial and magnitude patterns. For climatology, the CMIP5 models show quite different spatial distributions of shortwave radiation and sensible heat flux. In terms of seasonal variation, the surface energy budgets are remarkably different between western and eastern China. The discrepancies in the seasonal variation of sensible heat flux are mainly attributable to temperature differences and wind speed, while those of shortwave radiation are caused by the seasonal variation in total cloud cover. Cloudiness is one of the most crucial parameters in estimating the surface energy budget. In addition, the study also reveals that the magnitudes of the various components show larger (more than two-fold) differences between western and eastern parts of China, especially in net longwave and upward shortwave radiation, as well as latent and sensible heat fluxes. The results for surface soil heat flux show that there is more incoming energy during spring and summer and more outgoing energy during fall and winter in both western and eastern China. Furthermore, compared to NCEP2 data, the ERA-40 reanalysis product produces results more similar to the multi-model ensemble mean for most components.

  20. Budget Exercise.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clowes, Darrel A.

    Following a discussion of the factors to be considered in constructing feasible college budgets, an exercise in budget development is presented involving a hypothetical community college with 2,500 full-time equivalent (FTE) students, 500 in developmental education, 750 each in transfer and technical programs, and 500 undecided. Exercise…

  1. The partonic interpretation of reggeon theory models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boreskov, K. G.; Kaidalov, A. B.; Khoze, V. A.; Martin, A. D.; Ryskin, M. G.

    2005-12-01

    We review the physical content of the two simplest models of reggeon field theory: namely the eikonal and the Schwimmer models. The AGK cutting rules are used to obtain the inclusive, the inelastic and the diffractive cross sections. The system of non-linear equations for these cross sections is written down and analytic expressions for its solution are obtained. We derive the rapidity gap dependence of the differential cross sections for diffractive dissociation in the Schwimmer model and in its eikonalized extension. The results are interpreted from the partonic viewpoint of the interaction at high energies.

  2. The Australian methane budget: Interpreting surface and train-borne measurements using a chemistry transport model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fraser, Annemarie; Chan Miller, Christopher; Palmer, Paul I.; Deutscher, Nicholas M.; Jones, Nicholas B.; Griffith, David W. T.

    2011-10-01

    We investigate the Australian methane budget from 2005-2008 using the GEOS-Chem 3D chemistry transport model, focusing on the relative contribution of emissions from different sectors and the influence of long-range transport. To evaluate the model, we use in situ surface measurements of methane, methane dry air column average (XCH4) from ground-based Fourier transform spectrometers (FTSs), and train-borne surface concentration measurements from an in situ FTS along the north-south continental transect. We use gravity anomaly data from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment to describe the spatial and temporal distribution of wetland emissions and scale it to a prior emission estimate, which better describes observed atmospheric methane variability at tropical latitudes. The clean air sites of Cape Ferguson and Cape Grim are the least affected by local emissions, while Wollongong, located in the populated southeast with regional coal mining, samples the most locally polluted air masses (2.5% of the total air mass versus <1% at other sites). Averaged annually, the largest single source above background of methane at Darwin is long-range transport, mainly from Southeast Asia, accounting for ˜25% of the change in surface concentration above background. At Cape Ferguson and Cape Grim, emissions from ruminant animals are the largest source of methane above background, at approximately 20% and 30%, respectively, of the surface concentration. At Wollongong, emissions from coal mining are the largest source above background representing 60% of the surface concentration. The train data provide an effective way of observing transitions between urban, desert, and tropical landscapes.

  3. Topos models for physics and topos theory

    SciTech Connect

    Wolters, Sander

    2014-08-15

    What is the role of topos theory in the topos models for quantum theory as used by Isham, Butterfield, Döring, Heunen, Landsman, Spitters, and others? In other words, what is the interplay between physical motivation for the models and the mathematical framework used in these models? Concretely, we show that the presheaf topos model of Butterfield, Isham, and Döring resembles classical physics when viewed from the internal language of the presheaf topos, similar to the copresheaf topos model of Heunen, Landsman, and Spitters. Both the presheaf and copresheaf models provide a “quantum logic” in the form of a complete Heyting algebra. Although these algebras are natural from a topos theoretic stance, we seek a physical interpretation for the logical operations. Finally, we investigate dynamics. In particular, we describe how an automorphism on the operator algebra induces a homeomorphism (or isomorphism of locales) on the associated state spaces of the topos models, and how elementary propositions and truth values transform under the action of this homeomorphism. Also with dynamics the focus is on the internal perspective of the topos.

  4. Prospects for Advanced RF Theory and Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Batchelor, D.B.

    1999-04-12

    This paper represents an attempt to express in print the contents of a rather philosophical review talk. The charge for the talk was not to summarize the present status of the field and what we can do, but to assess what we will need to do in the future and where the gaps are in fulfilling these needs. The objective was to be complete, covering all aspects of theory and modeling in all frequency regimes, although in the end the talk mainly focussed on the ion cyclotron range of frequencies (ICRF). In choosing which areas to develop, it is important to keep in mind who the customers for RF modeling are likely to be and what sorts of tasks they will need for RF to do. This occupies the first part of the paper. Then we examine each of the elements of a complete RF theory and try to identify the kinds of advances needed.

  5. Quantum mechanical model in gravity theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Losyakov, V. V.

    2016-05-01

    We consider a model of a real massive scalar field defined as homogeneous on a d-dimensional sphere such that the sphere radius, time scale, and scalar field are related by the equations of the general theory of relativity. We quantize this system with three degrees of freedom, define the observables, and find dynamical mean values of observables in the regime where the scalar field mass is much less than the Planck mass.

  6. Theory, Modeling and Simulation Annual Report 2000

    SciTech Connect

    Dixon, David A; Garrett, Bruce C; Straatsma, TP; Jones, Donald R; Studham, Scott; Harrison, Robert J; Nichols, Jeffrey A

    2001-11-01

    This annual report describes the 2000 research accomplishments for the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation (TM and S) directorate, one of the six research organizations in the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). EMSL is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national scientific user facility and is the centerpiece of the DOE commitment to providing world-class experimental, theoretical, and computational capabilities for solving the nation's environmental problems.

  7. Theory, Modeling and Simulation Annual Report 2000

    SciTech Connect

    Dixon, David A.; Garrett, Bruce C.; Straatsma, Tp; Jones, Donald R.; Studham, Ronald S.; Harrison, Robert J.; Nichols, Jeffrey A.

    2001-11-01

    This annual report describes the 2000 research accomplishments for the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation (TM&S) directorate, one of the six research organizations in the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). EMSL is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national scientific user facility and is the centerpiece of the DOE commitment to providing world-class experimental, theoretical, and computational capabilities for solving the nation's environmental problems.

  8. Development and application of a GIS-based sediment budget model.

    PubMed

    Ramos-Scharrón, Carlos E; Macdonald, Lee H

    2007-07-01

    Accelerated erosion and increased sediment yields resulting from changes in land use are a critical environmental problem. Resource managers and decision makers need spatially explicit tools to help them predict the changes in sediment production and delivery due to unpaved roads and other types of land disturbance. This is a particularly important issue in much of the Caribbean because of the rapid pace of development and potential damage to nearshore coral reef communities. The specific objectives of this study were to: (1) develop a GIS-based sediment budget model; (2) use the model to evaluate the effects of unpaved roads on sediment delivery rates in three watersheds on St. John in the US Virgin Islands; and (3) compare the predicted sediment yields to pre-existing data. The St. John Erosion Model (STJ-EROS) is an ArcInfo-based program that uses empirical sediment production functions and delivery ratios to quantify watershed-scale sediment yields. The program consists of six input routines and five routines to calculate sediment production and delivery. The input routines have interfaces that allow the user to adjust the key variables that control sediment production and delivery. The other five routines use pre-set erosion rate constants, user-defined variables, and values from nine data layers to calculate watershed-scale sediment yields from unpaved road travelways, road cutslopes, streambanks, treethrow, and undisturbed hillslopes. STJ-EROS was applied to three basins on St. John with varying levels of development. Predicted sediment yields under natural conditions ranged from 2 to 7Mgkm(-2)yr(-1), while yield rates for current conditions ranged from 8 to 46Mgkm(-2)yr(-1). Unpaved roads are estimated to be increasing sediment delivery rates by 3-6 times for Lameshur Bay, 5-9 times for Fish Bay, and 4-8 times for Cinnamon Bay. Predicted basin-scale sediment yields for both undisturbed and current conditions are within the range of measured sediment yields

  9. Verification and calibration of Energy- and Flux-Budget (EFB) turbulence closure model through large eddy simulations and direct numerical simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kadantsev, Evgeny; Fortelius, Carl; Druzhinin, Oleg; Mortikov, Evgeny; Glazunov, Andrey; Zilitinkevich, Sergej

    2016-04-01

    We examine and validate the EFB turbulence closure model (Zilitinkevich et al., 2013), which is based on the budget equations for basic second moments, namely, two energies: turbulent kinetic energy EK and turbulent potential energy EP, and vertical turbulent fluxes of momentum and potential temperature, τi (i = 1, 2) and Fz. Instead of traditional postulation of down-gradient turbulent transport, the EFB closure determines the eddy viscosity and eddy conductivity from the steady-state version of the budget equations for τi and Fz. Furthermore, the EFB closure involves new prognostic equation for turbulent dissipation time scale tT, and extends the theory to non-steady turbulence regimes accounting for non-gradient and non-local turbulent transports (when the traditional concepts of eddy viscosity and eddy conductivity become generally inconsistent). Our special interest is in asymptotic behavior of the EFB closure in strongly stable stratification. For this purpose, we consider plane Couette flow, namely, the flow between two infinite parallel plates, one of which is moving relative to another. We use a set of Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) experiments at the highest possible Reynolds numbers for different bulk Richardson numbers (Druzhinin et al., 2015). To demonstrate potential improvements in Numerical Weather Prediction models, we test the new closure model in various idealized cases, varying stratification from the neutral and conventionally neutral to stable (GABLS1) running a test RANS model and HARMONIE/AROME model in single-column mode. Results are compared with DNS and LES (Large Eddy Simulation) runs and different numerical weather prediction models.

  10. Use and uncertainty evaluation of a process-based model for assessing the methane budgets of global terrestrial ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, A.; Inatomi, M.

    2011-07-01

    We assessed the global terrestrial budget of methane (CH4) using a process-based biogeochemical model (VISIT) and inventory data. Emissions from wetlands, paddy fields, biomass burning, and plants, and oxidative consumption by upland soils, were simulated by the model. Emissions from livestock ruminants and termites were evaluated by an inventory approach. These CH4 flows were estimated for each of the model's 0.5° × 0.5° grid cells from 1901 to 2009, while accounting for atmospheric composition, meteorological factors, and land-use changes. Estimation uncertainties were examined through ensemble simulations using different parameterization schemes and input data (e.g. different wetland maps and emission factors). From 1996 to 2005, the average global terrestrial CH4 budget was estimated on the basis of 576 simulations, and terrestrial ecosystems were found to be a net source of 320.4 ± 18.9 Tg CH4 yr-1. Wetland and ruminant emissions were the primary sources. The results of our simulations indicate that sources and sinks are distributed highly heterogeneously over the Earth's land surface. Seasonal and interannual variability in the terrestrial budget was assessed. The trend of increasing net terrestrial sources and its relationship with temperature variability imply that terrestrial CH4 feedbacks will play an increasingly important role as a result of future climatic change.

  11. Improved predictive ability of climate-human-behaviour interactions with modifications to the COMFA outdoor energy budget model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vanos, J. K.; Warland, J. S.; Gillespie, T. J.; Kenny, N. A.

    2012-11-01

    The purpose of this paper is to implement current and novel research techniques in human energy budget estimations to give more accurate and efficient application of models by a variety of users. Using the COMFA model, the conditioning level of an individual is incorporated into overall energy budget predictions, giving more realistic estimations of the metabolism experienced at various fitness levels. Through the use of VO2 reserve estimates, errors are found when an elite athlete is modelled as an unconditioned or a conditioned individual, giving budgets underpredicted significantly by -173 and -123 W m-2, respectively. Such underprediction can result in critical errors regarding heat stress, particularly in highly motivated individuals; thus this revision is critical for athletic individuals. A further improvement in the COMFA model involves improved adaptation of clothing insulation ( I cl), as well clothing non-uniformity, with changing air temperature ( T a) and metabolic activity ( M act). Equivalent T a values (for I cl estimation) are calculated in order to lower the I cl value with increasing M act at equal T a. Furthermore, threshold T a values are calculated to predict the point at which an individual will change from a uniform I cl to a segmented I cl (full ensemble to shorts and a T-shirt). Lastly, improved relative velocity ( v r) estimates were found with a refined equation accounting for the degree angle of wind to body movement. Differences between the original and improved v r equations increased with higher wind and activity speeds, and as the wind to body angle moved away from 90°. Under moderate microclimate conditions, and wind from behind a person, the convective heat loss and skin temperature estimates were 47 W m-2 and 1.7°C higher when using the improved v r equation. These model revisions improve the applicability and usability of the COMFA energy budget model for subjects performing physical activity in outdoor environments

  12. A new conceptual model to understand the water budget of an Irrigated Basin with Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foglia, L.; McNally, A.; Harter, T.

    2012-12-01

    The Scott River is one of four major tributaries in the Klamath River Basin that provide cold water habitat for salmonid populations. The Scott Valley is also a major agricultural growing region with extensive alfalfa and hay productions that are key to the local economy. Due to the Mediterranean climate in the area, discharge rates in the river are highly seasonal. Almost all annual discharge occurs during the winter precipitation season and spring snowmelt. During the summer months (July through September), the main-stem river becomes disconnected from its tributaries throughout much of Scott Valley and relies primarily on baseflow from the Scott Valley aquifer. Scott Valley agriculture relies on a combination of surface water and groundwater supplies for crop irrigation during April through September. Conflicts between ecosystem services needs to guarantee a sustainable water quality (mainly in-stream temperature) for the native salmon population and water demands for agricultural irrigation motivated the development of a new conceptual model for the evaluation of the soil-water budget throughout the valley, as a basis for developing alternative surface water and groundwater management practices. The model simulates daily hydrologic fluxes at the individual field scale (100 - 200 m), allocates water resources to nearby irrigation systems, and tracks soil moisture to determine groundwater recharge. The water budget model provides recharge and pumping values for each field. These values in turn are used as inputs for a valley-wide groundwater model developed with MODFLOW-2000. In a first step, separate sensitivity analysis and calibration of the groundwater model is used to provide insights on the accuracy of the recharge and pumping distribution estimated with the water budget model. In a further step, the soil water budget and groundwater flow models will be coupled and sensitivity analysis and calibration will be performed simultaneously. Field-based, local

  13. Conceptual Models and Theory-Embedded Principles on Effective Schooling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scheerens, Jaap

    1997-01-01

    Reviews models and theories on effective schooling. Discusses four rationality-based organization theories and a fifth perspective, chaos theory, as applied to organizational functioning. Discusses theory-embedded principles flowing from these theories: proactive structuring, fit, market mechanisms, cybernetics, and self-organization. The…

  14. Theory, modeling and simulation: Annual report 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Dunning, T.H. Jr.; Garrett, B.C.

    1994-07-01

    Developing the knowledge base needed to address the environmental restoration issues of the US Department of Energy requires a fundamental understanding of molecules and their interactions in insolation and in liquids, on surfaces, and at interfaces. To meet these needs, the PNL has established the Environmental and Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) and will soon begin construction of a new, collaborative research facility devoted to advancing the understanding of environmental molecular science. Research in the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation program (TMS), which is one of seven research directorates in the EMSL, will play a critical role in understanding molecular processes important in restoring DOE`s research, development and production sites, including understanding the migration and reactions of contaminants in soils and groundwater, the development of separation process for isolation of pollutants, the development of improved materials for waste storage, understanding the enzymatic reactions involved in the biodegradation of contaminants, and understanding the interaction of hazardous chemicals with living organisms. The research objectives of the TMS program are to apply available techniques to study fundamental molecular processes involved in natural and contaminated systems; to extend current techniques to treat molecular systems of future importance and to develop techniques for addressing problems that are computationally intractable at present; to apply molecular modeling techniques to simulate molecular processes occurring in the multispecies, multiphase systems characteristic of natural and polluted environments; and to extend current molecular modeling techniques to treat complex molecular systems and to improve the reliability and accuracy of such simulations. The program contains three research activities: Molecular Theory/Modeling, Solid State Theory, and Biomolecular Modeling/Simulation. Extended abstracts are presented for 89 studies.

  15. A Model Microcomputer Software Package for Educational Program-Oriented-Budgeting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leahy, Phillip E.

    The Microcomputer Program Oriented Budgeting System (MICROCOMP POB) is an accounts payable system intended for use in school districts. The system is based on the general principles of encumbrance accounting and the use of multiple account numbers. For each account number, the primary information provided consists of year to date balances for…

  16. General topology meets model theory, on and

    PubMed Central

    Malliaris, Maryanthe; Shelah, Saharon

    2013-01-01

    Cantor proved in 1874 [Cantor G (1874) J Reine Angew Math 77:258–262] that the continuum is uncountable, and Hilbert’s first problem asks whether it is the smallest uncountable cardinal. A program arose to study cardinal invariants of the continuum, which measure the size of the continuum in various ways. By Gödel [Gödel K (1939) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 25(4):220–224] and Cohen [Cohen P (1963) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 50(6):1143–1148], Hilbert’s first problem is independent of ZFC (Zermelo-Fraenkel set theory with the axiom of choice). Much work both before and since has been done on inequalities between these cardinal invariants, but some basic questions have remained open despite Cohen’s introduction of forcing. The oldest and perhaps most famous of these is whether “,” which was proved in a special case by Rothberger [Rothberger F (1948) Fund Math 35:29–46], building on Hausdorff [Hausdorff (1936) Fund Math 26:241–255]. In this paper we explain how our work on the structure of Keisler’s order, a large-scale classification problem in model theory, led to the solution of this problem in ZFC as well as of an a priori unrelated open question in model theory. PMID:23836659

  17. Formula Budgeting

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gardner, John C.

    1974-01-01

    Presents the mathematical formula devised by George O. Weber on budgeting for physical plants of colleges and universities. Uses four functions of administration, maintenance (operational), housekeeping/custodial, and grounds as a base. (Author/MLF)

  18. Algorithm for model validation: Theory and applications

    PubMed Central

    Sornette, D.; Davis, A. B.; Ide, K.; Vixie, K. R.; Pisarenko, V.; Kamm, J. R.

    2007-01-01

    Validation is often defined as the process of determining the degree to which a model is an accurate representation of the real world from the perspective of its intended uses. Validation is crucial as industries and governments depend increasingly on predictions by computer models to justify their decisions. We propose to formulate the validation of a given model as an iterative construction process that mimics the often implicit process occurring in the minds of scientists. We offer a formal representation of the progressive build-up of trust in the model. Thus, we replace static claims on the impossibility of validating a given model by a dynamic process of constructive approximation. This approach is better adapted to the fuzzy, coarse-grained nature of validation. Our procedure factors in the degree of redundancy versus novelty of the experiments used for validation as well as the degree to which the model predicts the observations. We illustrate the methodology first with the maturation of quantum mechanics as the arguably best established physics theory and then with several concrete examples drawn from some of our primary scientific interests: a cellular automaton model for earthquakes, a multifractal random walk model for financial time series, an anomalous diffusion model for solar radiation transport in the cloudy atmosphere, and a computational fluid dynamics code for the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability. PMID:17420476

  19. Algorithm for model validation: theory and applications.

    PubMed

    Sornette, D; Davis, A B; Ide, K; Vixie, K R; Pisarenko, V; Kamm, J R

    2007-04-17

    Validation is often defined as the process of determining the degree to which a model is an accurate representation of the real world from the perspective of its intended uses. Validation is crucial as industries and governments depend increasingly on predictions by computer models to justify their decisions. We propose to formulate the validation of a given model as an iterative construction process that mimics the often implicit process occurring in the minds of scientists. We offer a formal representation of the progressive build-up of trust in the model. Thus, we replace static claims on the impossibility of validating a given model by a dynamic process of constructive approximation. This approach is better adapted to the fuzzy, coarse-grained nature of validation. Our procedure factors in the degree of redundancy versus novelty of the experiments used for validation as well as the degree to which the model predicts the observations. We illustrate the methodology first with the maturation of quantum mechanics as the arguably best established physics theory and then with several concrete examples drawn from some of our primary scientific interests: a cellular automaton model for earthquakes, a multifractal random walk model for financial time series, an anomalous diffusion model for solar radiation transport in the cloudy atmosphere, and a computational fluid dynamics code for the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability. PMID:17420476

  20. An energy budget agent-based model of earthworm populations and its application to study the effects of pesticides

    PubMed Central

    Johnston, A.S.A.; Hodson, M.E.; Thorbek, P.; Alvarez, T.; Sibly, R.M.

    2014-01-01

    Earthworms are important organisms in soil communities and so are used as model organisms in environmental risk assessments of chemicals. However current risk assessments of soil invertebrates are based on short-term laboratory studies, of limited ecological relevance, supplemented if necessary by site-specific field trials, which sometimes are challenging to apply across the whole agricultural landscape. Here, we investigate whether population responses to environmental stressors and pesticide exposure can be accurately predicted by combining energy budget and agent-based models (ABMs), based on knowledge of how individuals respond to their local circumstances. A simple energy budget model was implemented within each earthworm Eisenia fetida in the ABM, based on a priori parameter estimates. From broadly accepted physiological principles, simple algorithms specify how energy acquisition and expenditure drive life cycle processes. Each individual allocates energy between maintenance, growth and/or reproduction under varying conditions of food density, soil temperature and soil moisture. When simulating published experiments, good model fits were obtained to experimental data on individual growth, reproduction and starvation. Using the energy budget model as a platform we developed methods to identify which of the physiological parameters in the energy budget model (rates of ingestion, maintenance, growth or reproduction) are primarily affected by pesticide applications, producing four hypotheses about how toxicity acts. We tested these hypotheses by comparing model outputs with published toxicity data on the effects of copper oxychloride and chlorpyrifos on E. fetida. Both growth and reproduction were directly affected in experiments in which sufficient food was provided, whilst maintenance was targeted under food limitation. Although we only incorporate toxic effects at the individual level we show how ABMs can readily extrapolate to larger scales by providing

  1. Hydrologic modelling for Lake Basaka: development and application of a conceptual water budget model.

    PubMed

    Dinka, Megersa O; Loiskandl, Willibald; Ndambuki, Julius M

    2014-09-01

    Quantification of fluxes of water into and out of terminal lakes like Basaka has fundamental challenges. This is due to the fact that accurate measurement and quantification of most of the parameters of a lake's hydrologic cycle are difficult. Furthermore, quantitative understanding of the hydrologic systems and hence, the data-intensive modelling is difficult in developing countries like Ethiopia due to limitation of sufficient recorded data. Therefore, formulation of a conceptual water balance model is extremely important as it presents a convenient analytical tool with simplified assumptions to simulate the magnitude of unknown fluxes. In the current study, a conceptual lake water balance model was systematically formulated, solved, calibrated, and validated successfully. Then, the surface water and groundwater interaction was quantified, and a mathematical relationship developed. The overall agreement between the observed and simulated lake stage at monthly time step was confirmed based on the standard performance parameters (R(2), MAE, RMSE, E(f)). The result showed that hydrological water balance of the lake is dominated by the groundwater (GW) component. The net GW flux in recent period (post-2000s) accounts about 56% of the total water inflow. Hence, GW plays a leading role in the hydrodynamics and existence of Lake Basaka and is mostly responsible for the expansion of the lake. Thus, identification of the potential sources/causes for the GW flux plays a leading role in order to limit the further expansion of the lake. Measurement of GW movement and exchange in the area is a high priority for future research. PMID:24816590

  2. Combining a spatial model with geochemical tracers and river station data to construct a catchment sediment budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rustomji, Paul; Caitcheon, Gary; Hairsine, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Information about diffuse pollutant sources in river catchments and the processes responsible for their generation is often obtained using geochemical tracing, in-stream monitoring, or process based modeling. Yet these methods are rarely combined. In this study, we combine these three methods to produce a catchment sediment budget for the Lake Burragorang catchment in Australia. The physically based process model SedNet was modified using local catchment data to constrain predicted hillslope erosion rates in forested areas, the rate and texture of sediment supply from gully erosion, and the predicted floodplain deposition rates. The model's capacity to match the geochemical tracer (both spatial source and erosion process) data and gauging station load data improved markedly. Hillslope erosion, primarily in the steeper, mainly forested areas near the reservoir, is identified by the model as the main source of sediment delivered to Lake Burragorang. The contribution from gully and river bank erosion is comparatively small, though gully erosion can be locally dominant. This result is consistent with the tracer data. Utilizing multiple independent data sets allows for a more rigorous evaluation of model performance and, it is argued, increases the likelihood that the model is correctly representing the main components of the catchment's sediment budget. The identification of diffuse sediment sources in other catchments can clearly benefit from combining a range of observational data with a structured model evaluation process.

  3. Standard Model as a Double Field Theory.

    PubMed

    Choi, Kang-Sin; Park, Jeong-Hyuck

    2015-10-23

    We show that, without any extra physical degree introduced, the standard model can be readily reformulated as a double field theory. Consequently, the standard model can couple to an arbitrary stringy gravitational background in an O(4,4) T-duality covariant manner and manifest two independent local Lorentz symmetries, Spin(1,3)×Spin(3,1). While the diagonal gauge fixing of the twofold spin groups leads to the conventional formulation on the flat Minkowskian background, the enhanced symmetry makes the standard model more rigid, and also stringy, than it appeared. The CP violating θ term may no longer be allowed by the symmetry, and hence the strong CP problem can be solved. There are now stronger constraints imposed on the possible higher order corrections. We speculate that the quarks and the leptons may belong to the two different spin classes. PMID:26551099

  4. Queuing theory models for computer networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Galant, David C.

    1989-01-01

    A set of simple queuing theory models which can model the average response of a network of computers to a given traffic load has been implemented using a spreadsheet. The impact of variations in traffic patterns and intensities, channel capacities, and message protocols can be assessed using them because of the lack of fine detail in the network traffic rates, traffic patterns, and the hardware used to implement the networks. A sample use of the models applied to a realistic problem is included in appendix A. Appendix B provides a glossary of terms used in this paper. This Ames Research Center computer communication network is an evolving network of local area networks (LANs) connected via gateways and high-speed backbone communication channels. Intelligent planning of expansion and improvement requires understanding the behavior of the individual LANs as well as the collection of networks as a whole.

  5. Standard Model as a Double Field Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Kang-Sin; Park, Jeong-Hyuck

    2015-10-01

    We show that, without any extra physical degree introduced, the standard model can be readily reformulated as a double field theory. Consequently, the standard model can couple to an arbitrary stringy gravitational background in an O (4 ,4 ) T -duality covariant manner and manifest two independent local Lorentz symmetries, Spin(1 ,3 )×Spin(3 ,1 ) . While the diagonal gauge fixing of the twofold spin groups leads to the conventional formulation on the flat Minkowskian background, the enhanced symmetry makes the standard model more rigid, and also stringy, than it appeared. The C P violating θ term may no longer be allowed by the symmetry, and hence the strong C P problem can be solved. There are now stronger constraints imposed on the possible higher order corrections. We speculate that the quarks and the leptons may belong to the two different spin classes.

  6. Compass models: Theory and physical motivations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nussinov, Zohar; van den Brink, Jeroen

    2015-01-01

    Compass models are theories of matter in which the couplings between the internal spin (or other relevant field) components are inherently spatially (typically, direction) dependent. A simple illustrative example is furnished by the 90° compass model on a square lattice in which only couplings of the form τixτjx (where {τia}a denote Pauli operators at site i ) are associated with nearest-neighbor sites i and j separated along the x axis of the lattice while τiyτjy couplings appear for sites separated by a lattice constant along the y axis. Similar compass-type interactions can appear in diverse physical systems. For instance, compass models describe Mott insulators with orbital degrees of freedom where interactions sensitively depend on the spatial orientation of the orbitals involved as well as the low-energy effective theories of frustrated quantum magnets, and a host of other systems such as vacancy centers, and cold atomic gases. The fundamental interdependence between internal (spin, orbital, or other) and external (i.e., spatial) degrees of freedom which underlies compass models generally leads to very rich behaviors, including the frustration of (semi-)classical ordered states on nonfrustrated lattices, and to enhanced quantum effects, prompting, in certain cases, the appearance of zero-temperature quantum spin liquids. As a consequence of these frustrations, new types of symmetries and their associated degeneracies may appear. These intermediate symmetries lie midway between the extremes of global symmetries and local gauge symmetries and lead to effective dimensional reductions. In this article, compass models are reviewed in a unified manner, paying close attention to exact consequences of these symmetries and to thermal and quantum fluctuations that stabilize orders via order-out-of-disorder effects. This is complemented by a survey of numerical results. In addition to reviewing past works, a number of other models are introduced and new results

  7. Polarimetric clutter modeling: Theory and application

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kong, J. A.; Lin, F. C.; Borgeaud, M.; Yueh, H. A.; Swartz, A. A.; Lim, H. H.; Shim, R. T.; Novak, L. M.

    1988-01-01

    The two-layer anisotropic random medium model is used to investigate fully polarimetric scattering properties of earth terrain media. The polarization covariance matrices for the untilted and tilted uniaxial random medium are evaluated using the strong fluctuation theory and distorted Born approximation. In order to account for the azimuthal randomness in the growth direction of leaves in tree and grass fields, an averaging scheme over the azimuthal direction is also applied. It is found that characteristics of terrain clutter can be identified through the analysis of each element of the covariance matrix. Theoretical results are illustrated by the comparison with experimental data provided by MIT Lincoln Laboratory for tree and grass fields.

  8. A tidal creek water budget: Estimation of groundwater discharge and overland flow using hydrologic modeling in the Southern Everglades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michot, Béatrice; Meselhe, Ehab A.; Rivera-Monroy, Victor H.; Coronado-Molina, Carlos; Twilley, Robert R.

    2011-07-01

    Taylor Slough is one of the natural freshwater contributors to Florida Bay through a network of microtidal creeks crossing the Everglades Mangrove Ecotone Region (EMER). The EMER ecological function is critical since it mediates freshwater and nutrient inputs and controls the water quality in Eastern Florida Bay. Furthermore, this region is vulnerable to changing hydrodynamics and nutrient loadings as a result of upstream freshwater management practices proposed by the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Program (CERP), currently the largest wetland restoration project in the USA. Despite the hydrological importance of Taylor Slough in the water budget of Florida Bay, there are no fine scale (˜1 km 2) hydrodynamic models of this system that can be utilized as a tool to evaluate potential changes in water flow, salinity, and water quality. Taylor River is one of the major creeks draining Taylor Slough freshwater into Florida Bay. We performed a water budget analysis for the Taylor River area, based on long-term hydrologic data (1999-2007) and supplemented by hydrodynamic modeling using a MIKE FLOOD (DHI, http://dhigroup.com/) model to evaluate groundwater and overland water discharges. The seasonal hydrologic characteristics are very distinctive (average Taylor River wet vs. dry season outflow was 6 to 1 during 1999-2006) with a pronounced interannual variability of flow. The water budget shows a net dominance of through flow in the tidal mixing zone, while local precipitation and evapotranspiration play only a secondary role, at least in the wet season. During the dry season, the tidal flood reaches the upstream boundary of the study area during approximately 80 days per year on average. The groundwater field measurements indicate a mostly upwards-oriented leakage, which possibly equals the evapotranspiration term. The model results suggest a high importance of groundwater contribution to the water salinity in the EMER. The model performance is satisfactory

  9. The relative influence of urban climates on outdoor human energy budgets and skin temperature I. Modeling considerations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burt, J. E.; O'Rourke, P. A.; Terjung, W. H.

    1982-03-01

    An attempt is made to provide a tool for systematically analyzing variations of outdoor human energy budgets and skin temperatures as a result of different urban street canyon geometries and vegetative properties. To this end, three previously developed numerical models were combined. The interaction of the models and the derivation of the necessary human-urban view-factors is discussed. Some sample results are given for non-urban macadam and park plains, to be used later as standards in the comparison of the impact of urban morphology on human comfort.

  10. A sediment budget for southern Lake Michigan: source and sink models for different time intervals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Colman, Steven M.; Foster, D.S.

    1994-01-01

    Two terms dominate the modern sediment-budget equation: (1) bluff erosion, which is an order of magnitude larger than either rivers or aerosols as a source, and (2) deposition in the deep basin, which is more than two orders of magnitude greater as a sink than suspended sediment transport out of the basin. The attempt to reconstruct sediment budgets for time intervals of 100, 5000, and 10 000 years leads to important insights about erosion and sedimentation processes. Bluff erosion is the dominant source of both sand and mud in the basin. The deep lake floor is the primary sink for mud, whereas both the deep lake and nearshore areas are important sinks for sand. -from Authors

  11. Using chemical organization theory for model checking

    PubMed Central

    Kaleta, Christoph; Richter, Stephan; Dittrich, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Motivation: The increasing number and complexity of biomodels makes automatic procedures for checking the models' properties and quality necessary. Approaches like elementary mode analysis, flux balance analysis, deficiency analysis and chemical organization theory (OT) require only the stoichiometric structure of the reaction network for derivation of valuable information. In formalisms like Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML), however, information about the stoichiometric coefficients required for an analysis of chemical organizations can be hidden in kinetic laws. Results: First, we introduce an algorithm that uncovers stoichiometric information that might be hidden in the kinetic laws of a reaction network. This allows us to apply OT to SBML models using modifiers. Second, using the new algorithm, we performed a large-scale analysis of the 185 models contained in the manually curated BioModels Database. We found that for 41 models (22%) the set of organizations changes when modifiers are considered correctly. We discuss one of these models in detail (BIOMD149, a combined model of the ERK- and Wnt-signaling pathways), whose set of organizations drastically changes when modifiers are considered. Third, we found inconsistencies in 5 models (3%) and identified their characteristics. Compared with flux-based methods, OT is able to identify those species and reactions more accurately [in 26 cases (14%)] that can be present in a long-term simulation of the model. We conclude that our approach is a valuable tool that helps to improve the consistency of biomodels and their repositories. Availability: All data and a JAVA applet to check SBML-models is available from http://www.minet.uni-jena.de/csb/prj/ot/tools Contact: dittrich@minet.uni-jena.de Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:19468053

  12. Nature, theory and modelling of geophysical convective planetary boundary layers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zilitinkevich, Sergej

    2015-04-01

    horizontal branches of organised structures. This mechanism (Zilitinkevich et al., 2006), was overlooked in conventional local theories, such as the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, and convective heat/mass transfer law: Nu~Ra1/3, where Nu and Ra are the Nusselt number and Raleigh numbers. References Hellsten A., Zilitinkevich S., 2013: Role of convective structures and background turbulence in the dry convective boundary layer. Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 149, 323-353. Zilitinkevich, S.S., 1973: Shear convection. Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 3, 416-423. Zilitinkevich, S.S., 1991: Turbulent Penetrative Convection, Avebury Technical, Aldershot, 180 pp. Zilitinkevich S.S., 2012: The Height of the Atmospheric Planetary Boundary layer: State of the Art and New Development - Chapter 13 in 'National Security and Human Health Implications of Climate Change', edited by H.J.S. Fernando, Z. Klaić, J.L. McKulley, NATO Science for Peace and Security Series - C: Environmental Security (ISBN 978-94-007-2429-7), Springer, 147-161. Zilitinkevich S.S., 2013: Atmospheric Turbulence and Planetary Boundary Layers. Fizmatlit, Moscow, 248 pp. Zilitinkevich, S.S., Hunt, J.C.R., Grachev, A.A., Esau, I.N., Lalas, D.P., Akylas, E., Tombrou, M., Fairall, C.W., Fernando, H.J.S., Baklanov, and A., Joffre, S.M., 2006: The influence of large convective eddies on the surface layer turbulence. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 132, 1423-1456. Zilitinkevich S.S., Tyuryakov S.A., Troitskaya Yu. I., Mareev E., 2012: Theoretical models of the height of the atmospheric planetary boundary layer and turbulent entrainment at its upper boundary. Izvestija RAN, FAO, 48, No.1, 150-160 Zilitinkevich, S.S., Elperin, T., Kleeorin, N., Rogachevskii, I., Esau, I.N., 2013: A hierarchy of energy- and flux-budget (EFB) turbulence closure models for stably stratified geophysical flows. Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 146, 341-373.

  13. Application of Chaos Theory to Psychological Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blackerby, Rae Fortunato

    This dissertation shows that an alternative theoretical approach from physics--chaos theory--offers a viable basis for improved understanding of human beings and their behavior. Chaos theory provides achievable frameworks for potential identification, assessment, and adjustment of human behavior patterns. Most current psychological models fail to address the metaphysical conditions inherent in the human system, thus bringing deep errors to psychological practice and empirical research. Freudian, Jungian and behavioristic perspectives are inadequate psychological models because they assume, either implicitly or explicitly, that the human psychological system is a closed, linear system. On the other hand, Adlerian models that require open systems are likely to be empirically tenable. Logically, models will hold only if the model's assumptions hold. The innovative application of chaotic dynamics to psychological behavior is a promising theoretical development because the application asserts that human systems are open, nonlinear and self-organizing. Chaotic dynamics use nonlinear mathematical relationships among factors that influence human systems. This dissertation explores these mathematical relationships in the context of a sample model of moral behavior using simulated data. Mathematical equations with nonlinear feedback loops describe chaotic systems. Feedback loops govern the equations' value in subsequent calculation iterations. For example, changes in moral behavior are affected by an individual's own self-centeredness, family and community influences, and previous moral behavior choices that feed back to influence future choices. When applying these factors to the chaos equations, the model behaves like other chaotic systems. For example, changes in moral behavior fluctuate in regular patterns, as determined by the values of the individual, family and community factors. In some cases, these fluctuations converge to one value; in other cases, they diverge in

  14. Estimation of energy budget of ionosphere-thermosphere system during two CIR-HSS events: observations and modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verkhoglyadova, Olga; Meng, Xing; Mannucci, Anthony J.; Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Hunt, Linda A.; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Hajra, Rajkumar; Emery, Barbara A.

    2016-04-01

    We analyze the energy budget of the ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) system during two High-Speed Streams (HSSs) on 22-31 January, 2007 (in the descending phase of solar cycle 23) and 25 April-2 May, 2011 (in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24) to understand typical features, similarities, and differences in magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) coupling during HSS geomagnetic activity. We focus on the solar wind energy input into the magnetosphere (by using coupling functions) and energy partitioning within the IT system during these intervals. The Joule heating is estimated empirically. Hemispheric power is estimated based on satellite measurements. We utilize observations from TIMED/SABER (Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) to estimate nitric oxide (NO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) cooling emission fluxes. We perform a detailed modeling study of these two similar HSS events with the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM) and different external driving inputs to understand the IT response and to address how well the model reproduces the energy transport. GITM is run in a mode with forecastable inputs. It is shown that the model captures the main features of the energy coupling, but underestimates NO cooling and auroral heating in high latitudes. Lower thermospheric forcing at 100 km altitude is important for correct energy balance of the IT system. We discuss challenges for a physics-based general forecasting approach in modeling the energy budget of moderate IT storms caused by HSSs.

  15. Joint Application of Concentrations and Isotopic Signatures to Investigate the Global Atmospheric Carbon Monoxide Budget: Inverse Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, K.; Mak, J. E.; Emmons, L. K.

    2008-12-01

    Carbon monoxide is not only an important component for determining the atmospheric oxidizing capacity but also a key trace gas in the atmospheric chemistry of the Earth's background environment. The global CO cycle and its change are closely related to both the change of CO mixing ratio and the change of source strength. Previously, to estimate the global CO budget, most top-down estimation techniques have been applied the concentrations of CO solely. Since CO from certain sources has a unique isotopic signature, its isotopes provide additional information to constrain its sources. Thus, coupling the concentration and isotope fraction information enables to tightly constrain CO flux by its sources and allows better estimations on the global CO budget. MOZART4 (Model for Ozone And Related chemical Tracers), a 3-D global chemical transport model developed at NCAR, MPI for meteorology and NOAA/GFDL and is used to simulate the global CO concentration and its isotopic signature. Also, a tracer version of MOZART4 which tagged for C16O and C18O from each region and each source was developed to see their contributions to the atmosphere efficiently. Based on the nine-year-simulation results we analyze the influences of each source of CO to the isotopic signature and the concentration. Especially, the evaluations are focused on the oxygen isotope of CO (δ18O), which has not been extensively studied yet. To validate the model performance, CO concentrations and isotopic signatures measured from MPI, NIWA and our lab are compared to the modeled results. The MOZART4 reproduced observational data fairly well; especially in mid to high latitude northern hemisphere. Bayesian inversion techniques have been used to estimate the global CO budget with combining observed and modeled CO concentration. However, previous studies show significant differences in their estimations on CO source strengths. Because, in addition to the CO mixing ratio, isotopic signatures are independent tracers

  16. PARFUME Theory and Model basis Report

    SciTech Connect

    Darrell L. Knudson; Gregory K Miller; G.K. Miller; D.A. Petti; J.T. Maki; D.L. Knudson

    2009-09-01

    The success of gas reactors depends upon the safety and quality of the coated particle fuel. The fuel performance modeling code PARFUME simulates the mechanical, thermal and physico-chemical behavior of fuel particles during irradiation. This report documents the theory and material properties behind vari¬ous capabilities of the code, which include: 1) various options for calculating CO production and fission product gas release, 2) an analytical solution for stresses in the coating layers that accounts for irradiation-induced creep and swelling of the pyrocarbon layers, 3) a thermal model that calculates a time-dependent temperature profile through a pebble bed sphere or a prismatic block core, as well as through the layers of each analyzed particle, 4) simulation of multi-dimensional particle behavior associated with cracking in the IPyC layer, partial debonding of the IPyC from the SiC, particle asphericity, and kernel migration (or amoeba effect), 5) two independent methods for determining particle failure probabilities, 6) a model for calculating release-to-birth (R/B) ratios of gaseous fission products that accounts for particle failures and uranium contamination in the fuel matrix, and 7) the evaluation of an accident condition, where a particle experiences a sudden change in temperature following a period of normal irradiation. The accident condi¬tion entails diffusion of fission products through the particle coating layers and through the fuel matrix to the coolant boundary. This document represents the initial version of the PARFUME Theory and Model Basis Report. More detailed descriptions will be provided in future revisions.

  17. The design, analysis, and testing of a low-budget wind-tunnel flutter model with active aerodynamic controls

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bolding, R. M.; Stearman, R. O.

    1976-01-01

    A low budget flutter model incorporating active aerodynamic controls for flutter suppression studies was designed as both an educational and research tool to study the interfering lifting surface flutter phenomenon in the form of a swept wing-tail configuration. A flutter suppression mechanism was demonstrated on a simple semirigid three-degree-of-freedom flutter model of this configuration employing an active stabilator control, and was then verified analytically using a doublet lattice lifting surface code and the model's measured mass, mode shapes, and frequencies in a flutter analysis. Preliminary studies were significantly encouraging to extend the analysis to the larger degree of freedom AFFDL wing-tail flutter model where additional analytical flutter suppression studies indicated significant gains in flutter margins could be achieved. The analytical and experimental design of a flutter suppression system for the AFFDL model is presented along with the results of a preliminary passive flutter test.

  18. Hydrologic Characterization for Spring Creek and Hydrologic Budget and Model Scenarios for Sheridan Lake, South Dakota, 1962-2007

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Driscoll, Daniel G.; Norton, Parker A.

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey cooperated with South Dakota Game, Fish and Parks to characterize hydrologic information relevant to management of water resources associated with Sheridan Lake, which is formed by a dam on Spring Creek. This effort consisted primarily of characterization of hydrologic data for a base period of 1962 through 2006, development of a hydrologic budget for Sheridan Lake for this timeframe, and development of an associated model for simulation of storage deficits and drawdown in Sheridan Lake for hypothetical release scenarios from the lake. Historically, the dam has been operated primarily as a 'pass-through' system, in which unregulated outflows pass over the spillway; however, the dam recently was retrofitted with an improved control valve system that would allow controlled releases of about 7 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) or less from a fixed depth of about 60 feet (ft). Development of a hydrologic budget for Sheridan Lake involved compilation, estimation, and characterization of data sets for streamflow, precipitation, and evaporation. The most critical data need was for extrapolation of available short-term streamflow records for Spring Creek to be used as the long-term inflow to Sheridan Lake. Available short-term records for water years (WY) 1991-2004 for a gaging station upstream from Sheridan Lake were extrapolated to WY 1962-2006 on the basis of correlations with streamflow records for a downstream station and for stations located along two adjacent streams. Comparisons of data for the two streamflow-gaging stations along Spring Creek indicated that tributary inflow is approximately proportional to the intervening drainage area, which was used as a means of estimating tributary inflow for the hydrologic budget. Analysis of evaporation data shows that sustained daily rates may exceed maximum monthly rates by a factor of about two. A long-term (1962-2006) hydrologic budget was developed for computation of reservoir outflow from

  19. Modelling canopy radiation budget through multiple scattering approximation: a case study of coniferous forest in Mexico City Valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silván-Cárdenas, Jose L.; Corona-Romero, Nirani

    2015-10-01

    In this paper, we describe some results from a study on hyperspectral analysis of coniferous canopy scattering for the purpose of estimating forest biophysical and structural parameters. Georeferenced airborne hyperspectral measurements were taken from a flying helicopter over a coniferous forest dominated by Pinus hartweguii and Abies religiosa within the Federal District Conservation Land in Mexico City. Hyperspectral data was recorded in the optical range from 350 to 2500 nm at 1nm spectral resolution using the FieldSpec 4 (ASD Inc.). Spectral measurements were also carried out in the ground for vegetation and understory components, including leaf, bark, soil and grass. Measurements were then analyzed through a previously developed multiple scattering approximation (MSA) model, which represents above-canopy spectral reflectance through a non-linear combination of pure spectral components (endmembers), as well as through a set of photon recollision probabilities and interceptance fractions. In this paper we provide an expression for the canopy absorptance as the basis for estimating the components of canopy radiation budget using the MSA model. Furthermore, since MSA does not prescribe a priori the endmembers to incorporate in the model, a multiple endmember selection method (MESMSA) was developed and tested. Photon recollision probabilities and interceptance fractions were estimated by fitting the model to airborne spectral reflectance and selected endmembers where then used to estimate the canopy radiation budget at each measured location.

  20. Nonsingular models of universes in teleparallel theories.

    PubMed

    de Haro, Jaume; Amoros, Jaume

    2013-02-15

    Different models of universes are considered in the context of teleparallel theories. Assuming that the universe is filled by a fluid with an equation of state P=-ρ-f(ρ), for different teleparallel theories and different equation of state we study its dynamics. Two particular cases are studied in detail: in the first one we consider a function f with two zeros (two de Sitter solutions) that mimics a huge cosmological constant at early times and a pressureless fluid at late times; in the second one, in the context of loop quantum cosmology with a small cosmological constant, we consider a pressureless fluid (P=0⇔f(ρ)=-ρ) which means there are de Sitter and anti-de Sitter solutions. In both cases one obtains a nonsingular universe that at early times is in an inflationary phase; after leaving this phase, it passes trough a matter dominated phase and finally at late times it expands in an accelerated way. PMID:25166366

  1. A fusion of top-down and bottom-up modeling techniques to constrain regional scale carbon budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goeckede, M.; Turner, D. P.; Michalak, A. M.; Vickers, D.; Law, B. E.

    2009-12-01

    The effort to constrain regional scale carbon budgets benefits from assimilating as many high quality data sources as possible in order to reduce uncertainties. Two of the most common approaches used in this field, bottom-up and top-down techniques, both have their strengths and weaknesses, and partly build on very different sources of information to train, drive, and validate the models. Within the context of the ORCA2 project, we follow both bottom-up and top-down modeling strategies with the ultimate objective of reconciling their surface flux estimates. The ORCA2 top-down component builds on a coupled WRF-STILT transport module that resolves the footprint function of a CO2 concentration measurement in high temporal and spatial resolution. Datasets involved in the current setup comprise GDAS meteorology, remote sensing products, VULCAN fossil fuel inventories, boundary conditions from CarbonTracker, and high-accuracy time series of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Surface fluxes of CO2 are normally provided through a simple diagnostic model which is optimized against atmospheric observations. For the present study, we replaced the simple model with fluxes generated by an advanced bottom-up process model, Biome-BGC, which uses state-of-the-art algorithms to resolve plant-physiological processes, and 'grow' a biosphere based on biogeochemical conditions and climate history. This approach provides a more realistic description of biomass and nutrient pools than is the case for the simple model. The process model ingests various remote sensing data sources as well as high-resolution reanalysis meteorology, and can be trained against biometric inventories and eddy-covariance data. Linking the bottom-up flux fields to the atmospheric CO2 concentrations through the transport module allows evaluating the spatial representativeness of the BGC flux fields, and in that way assimilates more of the available information than either of the individual modeling techniques alone

  2. Advances in Bank Erosion Modelling at a Catchment-Scale and Its Significance to the Sediment Budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holman, I.; Janes, V.; O'Donnell, G. M.; Birkinshaw, S.; Kilsby, C. G.

    2014-12-01

    Channel bank erosion has been shown to contribute significantly to catchment sediment budgets, yet representation of this process in catchment models is often overly simplistic, or non-existent. In this study, the physically-based hydrological SHETRAN model has been modified to improve representation of channel bank erosion processes by incorporation of the influences of vegetation and channel sinuosity. The presence of vegetation on channel banks increases bank stability, reducing erosion rates. Large flood events have the potential to remove bank vegetation resulting in a sudden increase of bank erodibility, which then decreases over time as vegetation re-establishes. Within the updated model, erodibility coefficients throughout the catchment are temporally variable and respond to high magnitude discharge events to represent vegetation removal. The influence of further flood events during the vegetation recovery period is enhanced due to the increased erodibility, enabling the model to represent memory within the catchment. Meteorological conditions after high magnitude events influence the length of recovery time, which is also incorporated within the model. Channel sinuosity and channel curvature show a non-linear relationship with bank erosion due to the positioning of high-velocity flow within channels. The influence of sinuosity has been incorporated within the model by spatial variation of minimum and maximum bank erodibility coefficients according to variation of sinuosity within represented channels. The developed model has been applied to the Eden catchment, Cumbria, UK. The model has been validated using observed long-term bank erosion data from a GIS overlay methodology, indicating bank erosion contributes up to 11% of the annual catchment sediment budget. This paper will detail both the new modelling approach and accuracy of its application.

  3. Maintenance Budgeting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, J. McCree

    Three methods for the preparation of maintenance budgets are discussed--(1) a traditional method, inconclusive and obsolete, based on gross square footage, (2) the formula approach method based on building classification (wood-frame, masonry-wood, masonry-concrete) with maintenance cost factors for each type plus custodial service rates by type of…

  4. Battling Budgets

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Stacey

    2006-01-01

    Higher-education institutions are facing financial crises in their capital programs. Constant increases in the cost of oil, combined with material shortages in copper, steel and gypsum products, have contributed to an inexorable rise in the cost of construction. At the same time, capital budgets are decreasing. The result is that the education…

  5. Forage Budgeting

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Pasture management in tropical agro-ecosystems is challenging because of unique soil, climate, and animal interactions. Budgeting forage as part of the grazing system can be difficult because of the strong seasonality of forage production and rapidly changing forage quality. Planning, measuring, and...

  6. Idealized numerical modeling of polar mesocyclones dynamics diagnosed by energy budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sergeev, Dennis; Stepanenko, Victor

    2014-05-01

    can be interpreted as the growth rate of the vortex) and energy conversion in the diagnostic equations for kinetic and available potential energy (APE). The energy budget equations are implemented in two forms. The first approach follows the scheme developed by Lorenz (1955) in which KE and APE are broken into a mean component and an eddy component forming a well-known energy cycle. The second method is based on the energy equations that are strictly derived from the governing equations of the numerical mesoscale model used. The latter approach, hence, takes into account all the approximations and numerical features used in the model. Some conclusions based on the comparison of the described methods are presented in the study. A series of high-resolution experiments is carried out using three-dimensional non-hydrostatic limited-area sigma-coordinate numerical model ReMeDy (Research Mesoscale Dynamics), being developed at Lomonosov Moscow State University [3]. An idealized basic state condition is used for all simulations. It is composed of the zonally oriented baroclinic zone over the sea surface partly covered with ice. To realize a baroclinic channel environment zero-gradient boundary conditions at the meridional lateral oundaries are imposed, while the zonal boundary conditions are periodic. The initialization of the mesocyclone is achieved by creating a small axis-symmetric vortex in the center of the model domain. The baroclinicity and stratification of the basic state, as well as the surface parameters, are varied in the typically observed range. References 1. Heinemann G, Øyvind S. 2013. Workshop On Polar Lows. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 94: ES123-ES126. 2. Yanase W, Niino H. 2006. Dependence of Polar Low Development on Baroclinicity and Physical Processes: An Idealized High-Resolution Experiment, J. Atmos. Sci. 64: 3044-3067. 3. Chechin DG et al. 2013. Idealized dry quasi 2-D mesoscale simulations of cold-air outbreaks over the marginal sea ice zone with fine

  7. Bio-physical processes contribution to oxygen budget in the ETNA OMZ: a model based analysis study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koku Apetcho, Eyram; Montes, Ivonne; Fennel, Katja; Schneider, Birgit; Oschlies, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    We analyze the influence of physical processes on the oxygen distribution in the Eastern tropical North Atlantic (ETNA) oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) and their contribution to the oxygen budget in the oxygen minimum layer. A validation of the model shows a realistic representation of the main features. An improvement of the relative weak velocity observed in the model by a combination of higher resolution and appropriate wind forcing is proposed. The model diagnostics reveals that oxygen supply is mainly driven by advection. However, the importance of small scale processes is highlighted and it is observed that they potentially could hinder oxygen supply and thus contribute to ongoing depletion of oxygen. The main consumption mechanisms found in this modeling study are remineralization of DON and the 2 stages of nitrification.

  8. Parameterisation and validation of a resource budget model for masting using spatiotemporal flowering data of individual trees.

    PubMed

    Abe, Tomoyuki; Tachiki, Yuuya; Kon, Hirokazu; Nagasaka, Akiko; Onodera, Kensuke; Minamino, Kazuhiro; Han, Qingmin; Satake, Akiko

    2016-09-01

    Synchronised and fluctuating reproduction by plant populations, called masting, is widespread in diverse taxonomic groups. Here, we propose a new method to explore the proximate mechanism of masting by combining spatiotemporal flowering data, biochemical analysis of resource allocation and mathematical modelling. Flowering data of 170 trees over 13 years showed the emergence of clustering with trees in a given cluster mutually synchronised in reproduction, which was successfully explained by resource budget models. Analysis of resources invested in the development of reproductive organs showed that parametric values used in the model are significantly different between nitrogen and carbon. Using a fully parameterised model, we showed that the observed flowering pattern is explained only when the interplay between nitrogen dynamics and climatic cues was considered. This result indicates that our approach successfully identified resource type-specific roles on masting and that the method is suitable for a wide range of plant species. PMID:27449602

  9. Theory and modelling of nanocarbon phase stability.

    SciTech Connect

    Barnard, A. S.

    2006-01-01

    The transformation of nanodiamonds into carbon-onions (and vice versa) has been observed experimentally and has been modeled computationally at various levels of sophistication. Also, several analytical theories have been derived to describe the size, temperature and pressure dependence of this phase transition. However, in most cases a pure carbon-onion or nanodiamond is not the final product. More often than not an intermediary is formed, known as a bucky-diamond, with a diamond-like core encased in an onion-like shell. This has prompted a number of studies investigating the relative stability of nanodiamonds, bucky-diamonds, carbon-onions and fullerenes, in various size regimes. Presented here is a review outlining results of numerous theoretical studies examining the phase diagrams and phase stability of carbon nanoparticles, to clarify the complicated relationship between fullerenic and diamond structures at the nanoscale.

  10. Intersecting brane models and F-theory in six dimensions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagaoka, Satoshi

    2012-11-01

    We analyze six-dimensional supergravity theories coming from intersecting brane models on the toroidal orbifold T4/Z2. We use recently developed tools for mapping general 6D supergravity theories to F-theory to identify F-theory constructions dual to the intersecting brane models. The F-theory picture illuminates several aspects of these models. In particular, we have some new insight into the matter spectrum on intersecting branes, and analyze gauge group enhancement as branes approach orbifold points. These novel features of intersecting brane models are also relevant in four dimensions, and are confirmed in 6D using more standard Chan-Paton methods.

  11. CDO budgeting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nesladek, Pavel; Wiswesser, Andreas; Sass, Björn; Mauermann, Sebastian

    2008-04-01

    The Critical dimension off-target (CDO) is a key parameter for mask house customer, affecting directly the performance of the mask. The CDO is the difference between the feature size target and the measured feature size. The change of CD during the process is either compensated within the process or by data correction. These compensation methods are commonly called process bias and data bias, respectively. The difference between data bias and process bias in manufacturing results in systematic CDO error, however, this systematic error does not take into account the instability of the process bias. This instability is a result of minor variations - instabilities of manufacturing processes and changes in materials and/or logistics. Using several masks the CDO of the manufacturing line can be estimated. For systematic investigation of the unit process contribution to CDO and analysis of the factors influencing the CDO contributors, a solid understanding of each unit process and huge number of masks is necessary. Rough identification of contributing processes and splitting of the final CDO variation between processes can be done with approx. 50 masks with identical design, material and process. Such amount of data allows us to identify the main contributors and estimate the effect of them by means of Analysis of variance (ANOVA) combined with multivariate analysis. The analysis does not provide information about the root cause of the variation within the particular unit process, however, it provides a good estimate of the impact of the process on the stability of the manufacturing line. Additionally this analysis can be used to identify possible interaction between processes, which cannot be investigated if only single processes are considered. Goal of this work is to evaluate limits for CDO budgeting models given by the precision and the number of measurements as well as partitioning the variation within the manufacturing process. The CDO variation splits according to

  12. Modeling missing data in knowledge space theory.

    PubMed

    de Chiusole, Debora; Stefanutti, Luca; Anselmi, Pasquale; Robusto, Egidio

    2015-12-01

    Missing data are a well known issue in statistical inference, because some responses may be missing, even when data are collected carefully. The problem that arises in these cases is how to deal with missing data. In this article, the missingness is analyzed in knowledge space theory, and in particular when the basic local independence model (BLIM) is applied to the data. Two extensions of the BLIM to missing data are proposed: The former, called ignorable missing BLIM (IMBLIM), assumes that missing data are missing completely at random; the latter, called missing BLIM (MissBLIM), introduces specific dependencies of the missing data on the knowledge states, thus assuming that the missing data are missing not at random. The IMBLIM and the MissBLIM modeled the missingness in a satisfactory way, in both a simulation study and an empirical application, depending on the process that generates the missingness: If the missing data-generating process is of type missing completely at random, then either IMBLIM or MissBLIM provide adequate fit to the data. However, if the pattern of missingness is functionally dependent upon unobservable features of the data (e.g., missing answers are more likely to be wrong), then only a correctly specified model of the missingness distribution provides an adequate fit to the data. PMID:26651988

  13. Development of a time-stepping sediment budget model for assessing land use impacts in large river basins.

    PubMed

    Wilkinson, S N; Dougall, C; Kinsey-Henderson, A E; Searle, R D; Ellis, R J; Bartley, R

    2014-01-15

    The use of river basin modelling to guide mitigation of non-point source pollution of wetlands, estuaries and coastal waters has become widespread. To assess and simulate the impacts of alternate land use or climate scenarios on river washload requires modelling techniques that represent sediment sources and transport at the time scales of system response. Building on the mean-annual SedNet model, we propose a new D-SedNet model which constructs daily budgets of fine sediment sources, transport and deposition for each link in a river network. Erosion rates (hillslope, gully and streambank erosion) and fine sediment sinks (floodplains and reservoirs) are disaggregated from mean annual rates based on daily rainfall and runoff. The model is evaluated in the Burdekin basin in tropical Australia, where policy targets have been set for reducing sediment and nutrient loads to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon from grazing and cropping land. D-SedNet predicted annual loads with similar performance to that of a sediment rating curve calibrated to monitored suspended sediment concentrations. Relative to a 22-year reference load time series at the basin outlet derived from a dynamic general additive model based on monitoring data, D-SedNet had a median absolute error of 68% compared with 112% for the rating curve. RMS error was slightly higher for D-SedNet than for the rating curve due to large relative errors on small loads in several drought years. This accuracy is similar to existing agricultural system models used in arable or humid environments. Predicted river loads were sensitive to ground vegetation cover. We conclude that the river network sediment budget model provides some capacity for predicting load time-series independent of monitoring data in ungauged basins, and for evaluating the impact of land management on river sediment load time-series, which is challenging across large regions in data-poor environments. PMID:23968738

  14. Modeling active memory: Experiment, theory and simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amit, Daniel J.

    2001-06-01

    Neuro-physiological experiments on cognitively performing primates are described to argue that strong evidence exists for localized, non-ergodic (stimulus specific) attractor dynamics in the cortex. The specific phenomena are delay activity distributions-enhanced spike-rate distributions resulting from training, which we associate with working memory. The anatomy of the relevant cortex region and the physiological characteristics of the participating elements (neural cells) are reviewed to provide a substrate for modeling the observed phenomena. Modeling is based on the properties of the integrate-and-fire neural element in presence of an input current of Gaussian distribution. Theory of stochastic processes provides an expression for the spike emission rate as a function of the mean and the variance of the current distribution. Mean-field theory is then based on the assumption that spike emission processes in different neurons in the network are independent, and hence the input current to a neuron is Gaussian. Consequently, the dynamics of the interacting network is reduced to the computation of the mean and the variance of the current received by a cell of a given population in terms of the constitutive parameters of the network and the emission rates of the neurons in the different populations. Within this logic we analyze the stationary states of an unstructured network, corresponding to spontaneous activity, and show that it can be stable only if locally the net input current of a neuron is inhibitory. This is then tested against simulations and it is found that agreement is excellent down to great detail. A confirmation of the independence hypothesis. On top of stable spontaneous activity, keeping all parameters fixed, training is described by (Hebbian) modification of synapses between neurons responsive to a stimulus and other neurons in the module-synapses are potentiated between two excited neurons and depressed between an excited and a quiescent neuron

  15. Gravothermal Star Clusters - Theory and Computer Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spurzem, Rainer

    2010-11-01

    In the George Darwin lecture, delivered to the British Royal Astronomical Society in 1960 by Viktor A. Ambartsumian he wrote on the evolution of stellar systems that it can be described by the "dynamic evolution of a gravitating gas" complemented by "a statistical description of the changes in the physical states of stars". This talk will show how this physical concept has inspired theoretical modeling of star clusters in the following decades up to the present day. The application of principles of thermodynamics shows, as Ambartsumian argued in his 1960 lecture, that there is no stable state of equilibrium of a gravitating star cluster. The trend to local thermodynamic equilibrium is always disturbed by escaping stars (Ambartsumian), as well as by gravothermal and gravogyro instabilities, as it was detected later. Here the state-of-the-art of modeling the evolution of dense stellar systems based on principles of thermodynamics and statistical mechanics (Fokker-Planck approximation) will be reviewed. Recent progress including rotation and internal correlations (primordial binaries) is presented. The models have also very successfully been used to study dense star clusters around massive black holes in galactic nuclei and even (in a few cases) relativistic supermassive dense objects in centres of galaxies (here again briefly touching one of the many research fields of V.A. Ambartsumian). For the modern present time of high-speed supercomputing, where we are tackling direct N-body simulations of star clusters, we will show that such direct modeling supports and proves the concept of the statistical models based on the Fokker-Planck theory, and that both theoretical concepts and direct computer simulations are necessary to support each other and make scientific progress in the study of star cluster evolution.

  16. A study of the circulation and salinity budget of the Arabian Sea with an isopycnic coordinate ocean model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esenkov, Oleg E.; Olson, Donald B.; Bleck, Rainer

    2003-07-01

    The evolution of surface circulation and salinity budget are studied with the open-boundary version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM) that uses a global MICOM simulation as a boundary condition. Under climatological wind and thermodynamic forcing, the model develops solutions that are in good agreement with the climatologically forced global MICOM results and with observations. When the observed winds force the model, interannual variability of the surface fields increases significantly. However, coalescence of the two large eddies off Somalia in the end of the summer monsoon suggested in earlier observations does not occur in the model. To identify what processes facilitate or restrict the merger, a series of experiments was performed with modified model parameters and forcing fields. The eddies coalesced when half-slip, rather than no-slip, boundary conditions were used. In this case, less positive vorticity was produced at the coast, resulting in reduced blocking effect on the propagation of the southern eddy. The Socotra Island, which is submerged in the standard model, hinders a northward movement of the Great Whirl, leading to a stronger interaction between the eddies, which results in their subsequent merging. A more realistic coalescence occurs in an experiment where winds are held constant after reaching the peak summer value. Freshwater fluxes from the east and south are important for the salinity budget in the Arabian Sea, where evaporation exceeds precipitation. The only significant cross-equatorial transport of low-salinity water occurs in the upper 400 m in the model. Most of this water is advected below the surface mixed layer at the western boundary. The strongest interaction between the mixed layer and the oceanic interior occurs during the summer in the coastal upwelling regions off Somalia. Almost half of all upwelled water comes from depths between 100 and 200 m, thus signifying the importance of mid-depth circulation and

  17. Modeling the budget impact of long-acting injectable paliperidone palmitate in the treatment of schizophrenia in Japan

    PubMed Central

    Mahlich, Jörg; Nishi, Masamichi; Saito, Yoshimichi

    2015-01-01

    Background The cost of schizophrenia in Japan is high and new long-acting injectable (LAI) antipsychotics might be able to reduce costs by causing a reduction of hospital stays. We aim to estimate budget effects of the introduction of a new 1-month LAI, paliperidone palmitate, in Japan. Methods A budget impact analysis was conducted from a payer perspective. The model took direct costs of illness into account (ie, costs for inpatient and outpatient services, as well as drug costs). The robustness of the model was checked using a sensitivity analysis. Results According to our calculations, direct total costs of schizophrenia reach 710,500 million yen a year (US$6 billion). These costs decrease to 691,000 million yen (US$5.9 billion) 3 years after the introduction of paliperidone palmitate. Conclusion From a payer point of view, the introduction of a new treatment for schizophrenia in Japan helps to save resources and is not associated with a higher financial burden. PMID:26045674

  18. Zonal momentum budget along the equator in the Indian Ocean from a high-resolution ocean general circulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagura, Motoki; McPhaden, Michael J.

    2014-07-01

    This study examines the zonal momentum budget along the equator in the Indian Ocean in a high-resolution ocean general circulation model. Wyrtki Jets, wind-driven eastward flows in the upper 100 m that appear typically twice per year in boreal spring and fall, are a prominent feature of the ocean circulation in this region. Our results indicate that nonlinearity associated with these jets is an important element of the zonal momentum budget, with wind driven eastward momentum advected downward into the thermocline. This advection results in annually averaged zonal currents that flow against the zonal pressure gradient in the upper 200 m, such that there is no mean subsurface undercurrent in the Indian Ocean as there is in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Zonal momentum is further distributed along the equator by zonal advection, with eastward flow substantially enhanced in the eastern basin relative to the western basin. Meridional advection, though generally weak, tends to decelerate surface eastward flow along the equator. These results contrast with those from previous idealized wind-forced model experiments that primarily emphasized the importance of vertical momentum advection. Also, beyond semiannual period fluctuations, significant momentum advection results from a broad range of interacting processes, spanning intraseasonal to interannual time scales. We conclude that proper simulation of zonal flows along the equator in the Indian Ocean, including their climatically relevant impacts on the mass and heat balance, requires accurate representation of nonlinearities that derive from a broad range of time and space scales.

  19. Telep@b Project: Towards a Model for eParticipation and a Case Study in Participatory Budgeting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paganelli, Federica; Giuli, Dino

    eParticipation concerns the use of ICT tools for facilitating the two-way communication between governments and citizens. Designing eParticipation activities is a complex task. Challenges include the need of interdisciplinary expertise and knowledge (for example, political, sociology, usability and technology domains) and the lack of widely accepted models and standards. This paper attempts to provide a model for eParticipation, aiming at providing guidelines for the design, implementation and management of eParticipation applications. This model has been put into practice for the design of an eParticipation portal in the framework of the Telep@b project. We also report on the experimental use of the portal services in a group of Tuscany municipalities for supporting participatory budget activities and future activities in a follow-on project (PAAS_Telep@b project).

  20. Mean-velocity profile of smooth channel flow explained by a cospectral budget model with wall-blockage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McColl, Kaighin A.; Katul, Gabriel G.; Gentine, Pierre; Entekhabi, Dara

    2016-03-01

    A series of recent studies has shown that a model of the turbulent vertical velocity variance spectrum (Fvv) combined with a simplified cospectral budget can reproduce many macroscopic flow properties of turbulent wall-bounded flows, including various features of the mean-velocity profile (MVP), i.e., the "law of the wall". While the approach reasonably models the MVP's logarithmic layer, the buffer layer displays insufficient curvature compared to measurements. The assumptions are re-examined here using a direct numerical simulation (DNS) dataset at moderate Reynolds number that includes all the requisite spectral and co-spectral information. Starting with several hypotheses for the cause of the "missing" curvature in the buffer layer, it is shown that the curvature deficit is mainly due to mismatches between (i) the modelled and DNS-observed pressure-strain terms in the cospectral budget and (ii) the DNS-observed Fvv and the idealized form used in previous models. By replacing the current parameterization for the pressure-strain term with an expansive version that directly accounts for wall-blocking effects, the modelled and DNS reported pressure-strain profiles match each other in the buffer and logarithmic layers. Forcing the new model with DNS-reported Fvv rather than the idealized form previously used reproduces the missing buffer layer curvature to high fidelity thereby confirming the "spectral link" between Fvv and the MVP across the full profile. A broad implication of this work is that much of the macroscopic properties of the flow (such as the MVP) may be derived from the energy distribution in turbulent eddies (i.e., Fvv) representing the microstate of the flow, provided the link between them accounts for wall-blocking.

  1. Modeling Impacts On and Feedbacks Among Surface Energy and Water Budgets Due to Aerosols-In-Snow Across North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oaida, C. M.; Xue, Y.; Chin, M.; Flanner, M.; De Sales, F.; Painter, T. H.

    2014-12-01

    Snow albedo is known to have a significant impact on energy and water budgets by modulating land-atmosphere flux exchanges. In recent decades, anthropogenic activities that cause dust and soot emission and deposition on snow-covered areas have lead to the alteration of snow albedo. Our study aims to investigate and quantitatively assess the impact of aerosols-in-snow on surface energy and water budgets at a local and regional scale using a recently enhanced regional climate model that has physically based snow processes, including aerosols in snow. We employ NCAR's WRF-ARW model, which we have previously coupled with a land surface model, Simplified Simple Biosphere version 3 (SSiB-3). We improve the original WRF/SSiB-3 framework to include a snow-radiative transfer model, Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiative (SNICAR) model, which considers the effects of snow grain size and aerosols-in-snow on snow albedo evolution. Furthermore, the modified WRF/SSiB-3 can now account for the deposition and tracking of aerosols in snow. The model is run for 10 continuous years (2000-2009) over North America under two scenarios: (1) no aerosol deposition in snow, and (2) with GOCART dust, black carbon, and organic carbon surface deposition in snow. By comparing the two cases, we can investigate the impact of aerosols-in-snow. We examine the changes in surface energy balance, such as albedo, surface net solar radiation (radiative forcing), and surface air and skin temperature, and how these might interact with, and lead to, changes in the hydrologic cycle, including SWE, runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. We investigate the mechanisms and feedbacks that might contribute to the changes seen across select regions of North America, which are potentially a result of both local and remote effects.

  2. Budget management.

    PubMed

    Hughes, G

    1997-05-01

    Budgetary responsibility gives you more control. Take time to master the fine detail, ask questions of your management and finance colleagues about anything you do not understand (you will not lose face), and develop the skills of lateral thinking and creative accountancy. Even if your budget is repeatedly overspent do not take it personally, ensure that management are aware of it and have a good night's sleep. Do not worry about it. PMID:9193994

  3. Theory and Modeling in Support of Tether

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chang, C. L.; Bergeron, G.; Drobot, A. D.; Papadopoulos, K.; Riyopoulos, S.; Szuszczewicz, E.

    1999-01-01

    This final report summarizes the work performed by SAIC's Applied Physics Operation on the modeling and support of Tethered Satellite System missions (TSS-1 and TSS-1R). The SAIC team, known to be Theory and Modeling in Support of Tether (TMST) investigation, was one of the original twelve teams selected in July, 1985 for the first TSS mission. The accomplishments described in this report cover the period December 19, 1985 to September 31, 1999 and are the result of a continuous effort aimed at supporting the TSS missions in the following major areas. During the contract period, the SAIC's TMST investigation acted to: Participate in the planning and the execution on both of the TSS missions; Provide scientific understanding on the issues involved in the electrodynamic tether system operation prior to the TSS missions; Predict ionospheric conditions encountered during the re-flight mission (TSS-lR) based on realtime global ionosounde data; Perform post mission analyses to enhance our understanding on the TSS results. Specifically, we have 1) constructed and improved current collection models and enhanced our understanding on the current-voltage data; 2) investigated the effects of neutral gas in the current collection processes; 3) conducted laboratory experiments to study the discharge phenomena during and after tether-break; and 4) perform numerical simulations to understand data collected by plasma instruments SPES onboard the TSS satellite; Design and produce multi-media CD that highlights TSS mission achievements and convey the knowledge of the tether technology to the general public. Along with discussions of this work, a list of publications and presentations derived from the TMST investigation spanning the reporting period is compiled.

  4. An Introduction to Polytomous Item Response Theory Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Ayala, R. J.

    1993-01-01

    Notes that polytomous item response theory (IRT) models are appropriate for Likert scale and other polytomous item types. Presents polytomous IRT models, including graded response, nominal response, partial credit, and rating scale models. (Author/NB)

  5. Theory and Modeling of Asymmetric Catalytic Reactions.

    PubMed

    Lam, Yu-Hong; Grayson, Matthew N; Holland, Mareike C; Simon, Adam; Houk, K N

    2016-04-19

    Modern density functional theory and powerful contemporary computers have made it possible to explore complex reactions of value in organic synthesis. We describe recent explorations of mechanisms and origins of stereoselectivities with density functional theory calculations. The specific functionals and basis sets that are routinely used in computational studies of stereoselectivities of organic and organometallic reactions in our group are described, followed by our recent studies that uncovered the origins of stereocontrol in reactions catalyzed by (1) vicinal diamines, including cinchona alkaloid-derived primary amines, (2) vicinal amidophosphines, and (3) organo-transition-metal complexes. Two common cyclic models account for the stereoselectivity of aldol reactions of metal enolates (Zimmerman-Traxler) or those catalyzed by the organocatalyst proline (Houk-List). Three other models were derived from computational studies described in this Account. Cinchona alkaloid-derived primary amines and other vicinal diamines are venerable asymmetric organocatalysts. For α-fluorinations and a variety of aldol reactions, vicinal diamines form enamines at one terminal amine and activate electrophilically with NH(+) or NF(+) at the other. We found that the stereocontrolling transition states are cyclic and that their conformational preferences are responsible for the observed stereoselectivity. In fluorinations, the chair seven-membered cyclic transition states is highly favored, just as the Zimmerman-Traxler chair six-membered aldol transition state controls stereoselectivity. In aldol reactions with vicinal diamine catalysts, the crown transition states are favored, both in the prototype and in an experimental example, shown in the graphic. We found that low-energy conformations of cyclic transition states occur and control stereoselectivities in these reactions. Another class of bifunctional organocatalysts, the vicinal amidophosphines, catalyzes the (3 + 2) annulation

  6. Big bang models in string theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Craps, Ben

    2006-11-01

    These proceedings are based on lectures delivered at the 'RTN Winter School on Strings, Supergravity and Gauge Theories', CERN, 16 20 January 2006. The school was mainly aimed at PhD students and young postdocs. The lectures start with a brief introduction to spacetime singularities and the string theory resolution of certain static singularities. Then they discuss attempts to resolve cosmological singularities in string theory, mainly focusing on two specific examples: the Milne orbifold and the matrix big bang.

  7. Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Water and Salt Budgets of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.

    1996-01-01

    The annual flux of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean by the atmosphere and rivers is balanced by the export of sea ice and oceanic freshwater. Two 150-year simulations of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that the total inflow of water from the atmosphere and rivers increases by 10% primarily due to an increase in river discharge, the annual sea-ice export decreases by about half, the oceanic liquid water export increases, salinity decreases, sea-ice cover decreases, and the total mass and sea-surface height of the Arctic Ocean increase. The closed, compact, and multi-phased nature of the hydrologic cycle in the Arctic Ocean makes it an ideal test of water budgets that could be included in model intercomparisons.

  8. A Leadership Identity Development Model: Applications from a Grounded Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Komives, Susan R.; Mainella, Felicia C.; Longerbeam, Susan D.; Osteen, Laura; Owen, Julie E.

    2006-01-01

    This article describes a stage-based model of leadership identity development (LID) that resulted from a grounded theory study on developing a leadership identity (Komives, Owen, Longerbeam, Mainella, & Osteen, 2005). The LID model expands on the leadership identity stages, integrates the categories of the grounded theory into the LID model, and…

  9. Object relations theory and activity theory: a proposed link by way of the procedural sequence model.

    PubMed

    Ryle, A

    1991-12-01

    An account of object relations theory (ORT), represented in terms of the procedural sequence model (PSM), is compared to the ideas of Vygotsky and activity theory (AT). The two models are seen to be compatible and complementary and their combination offers a satisfactory account of human psychology, appropriate for the understanding and integration of psychotherapy. PMID:1786224

  10. Reconstructing Constructivism: Causal Models, Bayesian Learning Mechanisms, and the Theory Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M.

    2012-01-01

    We propose a new version of the "theory theory" grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework…

  11. Chaos Theory as a Model for Managing Issues and Crises.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Priscilla

    1996-01-01

    Uses chaos theory to model public relations situations in which the salient feature is volatility of public perceptions. Discusses the premises of chaos theory and applies them to issues management, the evolution of interest groups, crises, and rumors. Concludes that chaos theory is useful as an analogy to structure image problems and to raise…

  12. Modeling Diagnostic Reasoning: A Summary of Parsimonious Covering Theory

    PubMed Central

    Reggia, James A.; Peng, Yun

    1986-01-01

    Parsimonious covering theory is a formal model of diagnostic reasoning. Diagnostic knowledge is represented in the theory as a network of causal associations, and problem-solving is represented in algorithms that support a hypothesize-and-test inference process. This paper summarizes in informal terms the basic ideas in parsimonious covering theory.

  13. A Comparison of Explicit Algebraic Turbulence Models and the Energy-Flux Budget (EFB) Closure in Gabls

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lazeroms, W. M.; Bazile, E.; Brethouwer, G.; Wallin, S.; Johansson, A. V.; Svensson, G.

    2014-12-01

    Turbulent flows with buoyancy effects occur in many situations, both in industry and in the atmosphere. It is challenging to correctly model such flows, especially in the case of stably stratified turbulence, where vertical motions are damped by buoyancy forces. For this purpose, we have derived a so-called explicit algebraic model for the Reynolds stresses and turbulent heat flux that gives accurate predictions in flows with buoyancy effects. Although inspired by turbulence models from engineering, the main aim of our work is to improve the parametrization of turbulence in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). Explicit algebraic turbulence models are a class of parametrizations that, on the one hand, are more advanced than standard eddy-diffusivity relations. On the other hand, they are signficantly easier to handle numerically than models that require the solution of the full flux-budget equations. To derive the algebraic model, we apply the assumption that transport terms of dimensionless fluxes can be neglected. Careful considerations of the algebra lead to a consistent formulation of the Reynolds stresses and turbulent heat flux, which is more general and robust than previous models of a similar kind. The model is shown to give good results compared to direct numerical simulations of engineering test cases, such as turbulent channel flow. Recent work has been aimed at testing the model in an atmospheric context. The first of these tests makes use of the GABLS1 case, in which a stable atmospheric boundary layer develops through a constant surface cooling rate. The model is able to give good predictions of this case compared to LES (see attached figure). Interestingly, the results are very close to the outcome of the recently developed Energy-Flux-Budget (EFB) closure by Zilitinkevich et al. (2013). A detailed discussion of the similarities and differences between these models will be given, which can give insight in the more general gap between engineering and

  14. Theory and modeling of active brazing.

    SciTech Connect

    van Swol, Frank B.; Miller, James Edward; Lechman, Jeremy B.; Givler, Richard C.

    2013-09-01

    Active brazes have been used for many years to produce bonds between metal and ceramic objects. By including a relatively small of a reactive additive to the braze one seeks to improve the wetting and spreading behavior of the braze. The additive modifies the substrate, either by a chemical surface reaction or possibly by alloying. By its nature, the joining process with active brazes is a complex nonequilibrium non-steady state process that couples chemical reaction, reactant and product diffusion to the rheology and wetting behavior of the braze. Most of the these subprocesses are taking place in the interfacial region, most are difficult to access by experiment. To improve the control over the brazing process, one requires a better understanding of the melting of the active braze, rate of the chemical reaction, reactant and product diffusion rates, nonequilibrium composition-dependent surface tension as well as the viscosity. This report identifies ways in which modeling and theory can assist in improving our understanding.

  15. Program Budgeting for Industrial Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gramberg, Merlyn Ludwig

    In recognition of the increasing concern for the expenditure of tax dollars and the resulting need for accountability in budgeting, this study provides a model for program budgeting at the collegiate level in industrial education. Course outlines for drafting and woodworking at the University of Northern Colorado were analyzed and activities were…

  16. Earth Radiation Budget Science, 1978. [conferences

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    An earth radiation budget satellite system planned in order to understand climate on various temporal and spatial scales is considered. Topics discussed include: climate modeling, climate diagnostics, radiation modeling, radiation variability and correlation studies, cloudiness and the radiation budget, and radiation budget and related measurements in 1985 and beyond.

  17. A comparison of scope for growth (SFG) and dynamic energy budget (DEB) models applied to the blue mussel ( Mytilus edulis)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Filgueira, Ramón; Rosland, Rune; Grant, Jon

    2011-11-01

    Growth of Mytilus edulis was simulated using individual based models following both Scope For Growth (SFG) and Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) approaches. These models were parameterized using independent studies and calibrated for each dataset by adjusting the half-saturation coefficient of the food ingestion function term, XK, a common parameter in both approaches related to feeding behavior. Auto-calibration was carried out using an optimization tool, which provides an objective way of tuning the model. Both approaches yielded similar performance, suggesting that although the basis for constructing the models is different, both can successfully reproduce M. edulis growth. The good performance of both models in different environments achieved by adjusting a single parameter, XK, highlights the potential of these models for (1) producing prospective analysis of mussel growth and (2) investigating mussel feeding response in different ecosystems. Finally, we emphasize that the convergence of two different modeling approaches via calibration of XK, indicates the importance of the feeding behavior and local trophic conditions for bivalve growth performance. Consequently, further investigations should be conducted to explore the relationship of XK to environmental variables and/or to the sophistication of the functional response to food availability with the final objective of creating a general model that can be applied to different ecosystems without the need for calibration.

  18. California's Methane Budget derived from CalNex P-3 Aircraft Observations and the WRF-STILT Lagrangian Transport Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santoni, G. W.; Xiang, B.; Kort, E. A.; Daube, B.; Andrews, A. E.; Sweeney, C.; Wecht, K.; Peischl, J.; Ryerson, T. B.; Angevine, W. M.; Trainer, M.; Nehrkorn, T.; Eluszkiewicz, J.; Wofsy, S. C.

    2012-12-01

    We present constraints on California emission inventories of methane (CH4) using atmospheric observations from nine NOAA P-3 flights during the California Nexus (CalNex) campaign in May and June of 2010. Measurements were made using a quantum cascade laser spectrometer (QCLS) and a cavity ring-down spectrometer (CRDS) and calibrated to NOAA standards in-flight. Five flights sampled above the northern and southern central valley and an additional four flights probed the south coast air basin, quantifying emissions from the Los Angeles basin. The data show large (>100 ppb) CH4 enhancements associated with point and area sources such as cattle and manure management, landfills, wastewater treatment, gas production and distribution infrastructure, and rice agriculture. We compare aircraft observations to modeled CH4 distributions by accounting for a) transport using the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model driven by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorology, b) emissions from inventories such as EDGAR and ones constructed from California-specific state and county databases, each gridded to 0.1° x 0.1° resolution, and c) spatially and temporally evolving boundary conditions such as GEOS-Chem and a NOAA aircraft profile measurement derived curtain imposed at the edge of the WRF domain. After accounting for errors associated with transport, planetary boundary layer height, lateral boundary conditions, seasonality of emissions, and the spatial resolution of surface emission prior estimates, we find that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) CH4 budget is a factor of 1.64 too low. Using a Bayesian inversion to the flight data, we estimate California's CH4 budget to be 2.5 TgCH4/yr, with emissions from cattle and manure management, landfills, rice, and natural gas infrastructure, representing roughly 82%, 26%, 9% and 32% (sum = 149% with other sources accounting for the additional 15%) of the current CARB CH4 budget estimate of 1.52 TgCH4

  19. Polyelectrolyte brushes: theory, modelling, synthesis and applications.

    PubMed

    Das, Siddhartha; Banik, Meneka; Chen, Guang; Sinha, Shayandev; Mukherjee, Rabibrata

    2015-11-28

    Polyelectrolyte (PE) brushes are a special class of polymer brushes (PBs) containing charges. Polymer chains attain "brush"-like configuration when they are grafted or get localized at an interface (solid-fluid or liquid-fluid) with sufficiently close proximity between two-adjacent grafted polymer chains - such a proximity triggers a particular nature of interaction between the adjacent polymer molecules forcing them to stretch orthogonally to the grafting interface, instead of random-coil arrangement. In this review, we discuss the theory, synthesis, and applications of PE brushes. The theoretical discussion starts with the standard scaling concepts for polymer and PE brushes; following that, we shed light on the state of the art in continuum modelling approaches for polymer and PE brushes directed towards analysis beyond the scaling calculations. A special emphasis is laid in pinpointing the cases for which the PE electrostatic effects can be de-coupled from the PE entropic and excluded volume effects; such de-coupling is necessary to appropriately probe the complicated electrostatic effects arising from pH-dependent charging of the PE brushes and the use of these effects for driving liquid and ion transport at the interfaces covered with PE brushes. We also discuss the atomistic simulation approaches for polymer and PE brushes. Next we provide a detailed review of the existing approaches for the synthesis of polymer and PE brushes on interfaces, nanoparticles, and nanochannels, including mixed brushes and patterned brushes. Finally, we discuss some of the possible applications and future developments of polymer and PE brushes grafted on a variety of interfaces. PMID:26399305

  20. Growth potential of blue mussels (M. edulis) exposed to different salinities evaluated by a Dynamic Energy Budget model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maar, Marie; Saurel, Camille; Landes, Anja; Dolmer, Per; Petersen, Jens Kjerulf

    2015-08-01

    For blue mussels, Mytilus edulis, one major constrain in the Baltic Sea is the low salinities that reduce the efficiency of mussel production. However, the effects of living in low and variable salinity regimes are rarely considered in models describing mussel growth. The aim of the present study was to incorporate the effects of low salinity into an eco-physiological model of blue mussels and to identify areas suitable for mussel production. A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model was modified with respect to i) the morphological parameters (DW/WW-ratio, shape factor), ii) change in ingestion rate and iii) metabolic costs due to osmoregulation in different salinity environments. The modified DEB model was validated with experimental data from different locations in the Western Baltic Sea (including the Limfjorden) with salinities varying from 8.5 to 29.9 psu. The identified areas suitable for mussel production in the Baltic Sea are located in the Little Belt area, the Great Belt, the southern Kattegat and the Limfjorden according to the prevailing salinity regimes. The new model can be used for supporting site selection of new mussel nutrient extraction cultures in the Baltic Sea that suffers from high eutrophication symptoms or as part of integrated multi-trophic aquaculture production. The model can also be used to predict the effects of salinity changes on mussel populations e.g. in climate change studies.

  1. Interrelationships among hydrologic-budget components of a northern Wisconsin seepage lake and implications for acid-deposition modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wentz, D.A.; Rose, W.J.

    1989-01-01

    Components of the hydrologic budget for a northern Wisconsin seepage lake were analyzed by applying correlation and regression techniques to monthly data. Analyses for the 1981-83 water years revealed a statistically significant, direct relationship between storage change and precipitation-evaporation balance. Ground-water outflow was negatively correlated with ground-water inflow, and this relationship was influenced by similar relationships for both hydraulic gradients and cross-sectional areas in outflow versus inflow regions of the lake. Neither ground-water outflow nor inflow was significantly related to precipitation, evaporation, storage change, or lake stage; this may reflect a lag in response time of the ground-water system compared to the lake. The results (1) emphasize the complexity of factors that influence ground-water interactions with seepage lakes and (2) suggest the importance of completing detailed hydrologic studies of these systems before mechanistic models, such as those developed to predict effects of acid deposition, are applied.

  2. Improvement in C-budget estimation at a sub-arctic black spruce forest by application of field data to remote sensing and modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harazono, Y.; Ueyama, M.; Miyata, A.

    2006-12-01

    Net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) at a sub-arctic black spruce forest in interior Alaska has been measured as eddy fluxes since 2003. Based on the observed dataset, the empirical relationship and parameters controlling NEE were examined. BIOME-BGC model was modified for cold regions and was tuned for the forest, and then the model output was examined. Modified and tuned BIOME-BGC reproduced 3-yr trends of C-budget well at the forest, while that with general parameter sets showed overestimate in C-sink. To evaluate forest productivity over Alaska black spruce forest, the observed 3-yr dataset and MODIS standard products (NDVI, LST) were linked using an empirical model. Satellite images were coupled into a model, and the model outputs were examined by comparing the observed results and BIOME BGC outputs. The MODIS linked model provided good agreements in 3-yr C-budget, while MOD17 standard outputs showed overestimation in C-sink in mid-summer. The applications of observed dataset to remote sensing and modeling provided reasonable 3-yr trends of C-budget, thus the spatial distribution of C-budget might be better than original products.

  3. A Quantitative Causal Model Theory of Conditional Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fernbach, Philip M.; Erb, Christopher D.

    2013-01-01

    The authors propose and test a causal model theory of reasoning about conditional arguments with causal content. According to the theory, the acceptability of modus ponens (MP) and affirming the consequent (AC) reflect the conditional likelihood of causes and effects based on a probabilistic causal model of the scenario being judged. Acceptability…

  4. Program evaluation models and related theories: AMEE guide no. 67.

    PubMed

    Frye, Ann W; Hemmer, Paul A

    2012-01-01

    This Guide reviews theories of science that have influenced the development of common educational evaluation models. Educators can be more confident when choosing an appropriate evaluation model if they first consider the model's theoretical basis against their program's complexity and their own evaluation needs. Reductionism, system theory, and (most recently) complexity theory have inspired the development of models commonly applied in evaluation studies today. This Guide describes experimental and quasi-experimental models, Kirkpatrick's four-level model, the Logic Model, and the CIPP (Context/Input/Process/Product) model in the context of the theories that influenced their development and that limit or support their ability to do what educators need. The goal of this Guide is for educators to become more competent and confident in being able to design educational program evaluations that support intentional program improvement while adequately documenting or describing the changes and outcomes-intended and unintended-associated with their programs. PMID:22515309

  5. Theory of stellar convection II: first stellar models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasetto, S.; Chiosi, C.; Chiosi, E.; Cropper, M.; Weiss, A.

    2016-04-01

    We present here the first stellar models on the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram (HRD), in which convection is treated according to the new scale-free convection theory (SFC theory) by Pasetto et al. (2014). The aim is to compare the results of the new theory with those from the classical, calibrated mixing-length (ML) theory to examine differences and similarities. We integrate the equations describing the structure of the atmosphere from the stellar surface down to a few percent of the stellar mass using both ML theory and SFC theory. The key temperature over pressure gradients, the energy fluxes, and the extension of the convective zones are compared in both theories. The analysis is first made for the Sun and then extended to other stars of different mass and evolutionary stage. The results are adequate: the SFC theory yields convective zones, temperature gradients ∇ and ∇e, and energy fluxes that are very similar to those derived from the "calibrated" MT theory for main sequence stars. We conclude that the old scale dependent ML theory can now be replaced with a self-consistent scale-free theory able to predict correct results, as it is more physically grounded than the ML theory. Fundamentally, the SFC theory offers a deeper insight of the underlying physics than numerical simulations.

  6. Theory of stellar convection - II. First stellar models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasetto, S.; Chiosi, C.; Chiosi, E.; Cropper, M.; Weiss, A.

    2016-07-01

    We present here the first stellar models on the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram, in which convection is treated according to the new scale-free convection theory (SFC theory) by Pasetto et al. The aim is to compare the results of the new theory with those from the classical, calibrated mixing-length (ML) theory to examine differences and similarities. We integrate the equations describing the structure of the atmosphere from the stellar surface down to a few per cent of the stellar mass using both ML theory and SFC theory. The key temperature over pressure gradients, the energy fluxes, and the extension of the convective zones are compared in both theories. The analysis is first made for the Sun and then extended to other stars of different mass and evolutionary stage. The results are adequate: the SFC theory yields convective zones, temperature gradients ∇ and ∇e, and energy fluxes that are very similar to those derived from the `calibrated' MT theory for main-sequence stars. We conclude that the old scale dependent ML theory can now be replaced with a self-consistent scale-free theory able to predict correct results, as it is more physically grounded than the ML theory. Fundamentally, the SFC theory offers a deeper insight of the underlying physics than numerical simulations.

  7. Large field inflation models from higher-dimensional gauge theories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Furuuchi, Kazuyuki; Koyama, Yoji

    2015-02-01

    Motivated by the recent detection of B-mode polarization of CMB by BICEP2 which is possibly of primordial origin, we study large field inflation models which can be obtained from higher-dimensional gauge theories. The constraints from CMB observations on the gauge theory parameters are given, and their naturalness are discussed. Among the models analyzed, Dante's Inferno model turns out to be the most preferred model in this framework.

  8. Large field inflation models from higher-dimensional gauge theories

    SciTech Connect

    Furuuchi, Kazuyuki; Koyama, Yoji

    2015-02-23

    Motivated by the recent detection of B-mode polarization of CMB by BICEP2 which is possibly of primordial origin, we study large field inflation models which can be obtained from higher-dimensional gauge theories. The constraints from CMB observations on the gauge theory parameters are given, and their naturalness are discussed. Among the models analyzed, Dante’s Inferno model turns out to be the most preferred model in this framework.

  9. A catastrophe theory model of planar orientation

    SciTech Connect

    Wright, M.W.; Deacon, G.E.

    2000-06-01

    The manipulation of planar objects using linear fences is of interest in robotics and parts feeding applications. The global behavior of such systems can be characterized graphically using Brost's push stability diagram (PSD). Previously, the authors have shown specifically under what conditions this representation undergoes qualitative, topological transitions corresponding to globally distinct behavioral regimes. In this paper, they show that these insights form a united whole when viewed from the perspective of catastrophe theory. The key result is that a planar object being pushed by a fence under the assumption of Coulomb friction is functionally equivalent to a gravitational catastrophe machine. Qualitative changes in global behavior are thus explained as catastrophes as singularities are encountered on a discriminant surface due to smooth changes in parameters. Catastrophe theory thus forms part of a computational theory of planar orientation, the aim of which is to understand such systems and make predictions about their behavior.

  10. The School Budget: Blueprint for Success.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gross, Michael J.

    1996-01-01

    Describes the budget models and guidelines of the schools in the Diocese of Grand Rapids, Michigan, which are designed to provide consistency among the schools and to enable the schools to operate on sound business principles. Discusses the process' key components: policy development, budget calendar implementation, and budget preparation. (AJL)

  11. The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) and its Contributions to Space Weather Research, the Flare Energy Budget, and Instrument Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamberlin, Phillip

    2008-01-01

    The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) is an empirical model of the solar irradiance spectrum from 0.1 to 190 nm at 1 nm spectral resolution and on a 1-minute time cadence. The goal of FISM is to provide accurate solar spectral irradiances over the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV: 0-200 nm) range as input for ionospheric and thermospheric models. The seminar will begin with a brief overview of the FISM model, and also how the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) will contribute to improving FISM. Some current studies will then be presented that use FISM estimations of the solar VUV irradiance to quantify the contributions of the increased irradiance from flares to Earth's increased thermospheric and ionospheric densites. Initial results will also be presented from a study looking at the electron density increases in the Martian atmosphere during a solar flare. Results will also be shown quantifying the VUV contributions to the total flare energy budget for both the impulsive and gradual phases of solar flares. Lastly, an example of how FISM can be used to simplify the design of future solar VUV irradiance instruments will be discussed, using the future NOAA GOES-R Extreme Ultraviolet and X-Ray Sensors (EXIS) space weather instrument.

  12. A Global Model Simulation of Aerosol Effects of Surface Radiation Budget- Toward Understanding of the "Dimming to Brightening" Transition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, Mian; Diehl, Thomas; Bian, Huisheng; Yu, Hongbin

    2008-01-01

    We present a global model study on the role aerosols play in the change of solar radiation at Earth's surface that transitioned from a decreasing (dimming) trend to an increasing (brightening) trend. Our primary objective is to understand the relationship between the long-term trends of aerosol emission, atmospheric burden, and surface solar radiation. More specifically, we use the recently compiled comprehensive global emission datasets of aerosols and precursors from fuel combustion, biomass burning, volcanic eruptions and other sources from 1980 to 2006 to simulate long-term variations of aerosol distributions and optical properties, and then calculate the multi-decadal changes of short-wave radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere by coupling the GOCART model simulated aerosols with the Goddard radiative transfer model. The model results are compared with long-term observational records from ground-based networks and satellite data. We will address the following critical questions: To what extent can the observed surface solar radiation trends, known as the transition from dimming to brightening, be explained by the changes of anthropogenic and natural aerosol loading on global and regional scales? What are the relative contributions of local emission and long-range transport to the surface radiation budget and how do these contributions change with time?

  13. A Mercury Transport and Fate Model for Mass Budget Assessment of Mercury Cycling in Lake Michigan

    EPA Science Inventory

    A mercury mass balance model was developed to describe and evaluate the fate, transport, and biogeochemical transformations of mercury in Lake Michigan. Coupling with total suspendable solids (TSS) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), the mercury transport and fate model simulates...

  14. General autocatalytic theory and simple model of financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thuy Anh, Chu; Lan, Nguyen Tri; Viet, Nguyen Ai

    2015-06-01

    The concept of autocatalytic theory has become a powerful tool in understanding evolutionary processes in complex systems. A generalization of autocatalytic theory was assumed by considering that the initial element now is being some distribution instead of a constant value as in traditional theory. This initial condition leads to that the final element might have some distribution too. A simple physics model for financial markets is proposed, using this general autocatalytic theory. Some general behaviours of evolution process and risk moment of a financial market also are investigated in framework of this simple model.

  15. Non-linear sigma-models and string theories

    SciTech Connect

    Sen, A.

    1986-10-01

    The connection between sigma-models and string theories is discussed, as well as how the sigma-models can be used as tools to prove various results in string theories. Closed bosonic string theory in the light cone gauge is very briefly introduced. Then, closed bosonic string theory in the presence of massless background fields is discussed. The light cone gauge is used, and it is shown that in order to obtain a Lorentz invariant theory, the string theory in the presence of background fields must be described by a two-dimensional conformally invariant theory. The resulting constraints on the background fields are found to be the equations of motion of the string theory. The analysis is extended to the case of the heterotic string theory and the superstring theory in the presence of the massless background fields. It is then shown how to use these results to obtain nontrivial solutions to the string field equations. Another application of these results is shown, namely to prove that the effective cosmological constant after compactification vanishes as a consequence of the classical equations of motion of the string theory. 34 refs. (LEW)

  16. Comparison of rainfall based SPI drought indices with SMDI and ETDI indices derived from a soil water budget model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Houcine, A.; Bargaoui, Z.

    2012-04-01

    Modelling soil water budget is a key issue for assessing drought awareness indices based on soil moisture estimation. The aim of the study is to compare drought indices based on rainfall time series to those based on soil water content time series and evapotranspiration time series. To this end, a vertically averaged water budget over the root zone is implemented to assist the estimation of evapotranspiration flux. A daily time step is adopted to run the water budget model for a lumped watershed of 250 km2 under arid climate where recorded meteorological and hydrological data are available for a ten year period. The water balance including 7 parameters is computed including evapotranspiration, runoff and leakage. Soil properties related parameters are derived according to pedo transfer functions while two remaining parameters are considered as data driven and are subject to calibration. The model is calibrated using daily hydro meteorological data (solar radiation, air temperature, air humidity, mean areal rainfall) as well as daily runoff records and also average annual (or regional) evapotranspiration. The latter is estimated using an empirical sub-model. A set of acceptable solutions is identified according to the values of the Nash coefficients for annual and decadal runoffs as well as the relative bias for average annual evapotranspiration. Using these acceptable solutions several drought indices are computed: SPI (standard precipitation index), SMDI (soil moisture deficit index) and ETDI (evapotranspiration deficit index). While SPI indicators are based only on monthly precipitation time series, SMDI are based on weekly mean soil water content as computed by the hydrological model. On the other hand ETDI indices are based on weekly mean potential and actual evapotranspirations as estimated by the meteorological and hydrological models. For SPI evaluation various time scales are considered from one to twelve months (SPI1, SPI3, SPI6, SPI9 and SPI12). For all

  17. Strong coupling theory for interacting lattice models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stanescu, Tudor D.; Kotliar, Gabriel

    2004-11-01

    We develop a strong coupling approach for a general lattice problem. We argue that this strong coupling perspective represents the natural framework for a generalization of the dynamical mean field theory (DMFT). The main result of this analysis is twofold: (1) It provides the tools for a unified treatment of any nonlocal contribution to the Hamiltonian. Within our scheme, nonlocal terms such as hopping terms, spin-spin interactions, or nonlocal Coulomb interactions are treated on equal footing. (2) By performing a detailed strong-coupling analysis of a generalized lattice problem, we establish the basis for possible clean and systematic extensions beyond DMFT. To this end, we study the problem using three different perspectives. First, we develop a generalized expansion around the atomic limit in terms of the coupling constants for the nonlocal contributions to the Hamiltonian. By analyzing the diagrammatics associated with this expansion, we establish the equations for a generalized dynamical mean-field theory. Second, we formulate the theory in terms of a generalized strong coupling version of the Baym-Kadanoff functional. Third, following Pairault, Sénéchal, and Tremblay [Phys. Rev. Lett. 80, 5389 (1998)], we present our scheme in the language of a perturbation theory for canonical fermionic and bosonic fields and we establish the interpretation of various strong coupling quantities within a standard perturbative picture.

  18. Modeling transonic aerodynamic response using nonlinear systems theory for use with modern control theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Silva, Walter A.

    1993-01-01

    The presentation begins with a brief description of the motivation and approach that has been taken for this research. This will be followed by a description of the Volterra Theory of Nonlinear Systems and the CAP-TSD code which is an aeroelastic, transonic CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) code. The application of the Volterra theory to a CFD model and, more specifically, to a CAP-TSD model of a rectangular wing with a NACA 0012 airfoil section will be presented.

  19. Transports and budgets of volume, heat, and salt from a global eddy-resolving ocean model

    SciTech Connect

    McCann, M.P.; Semtner, A.J. Jr.; Chervin, R.M.

    1994-07-01

    The results from an integration of a global ocean circulation model have been condensed into an analysis of the volume, heat, and salt transports among the major ocean basins. Transports are also broken down between the model`s Ekman, thermocline, and deep layers. Overall, the model does well. Horizontal exchanges of mass, heat, and salt between ocean basins have reasonable values: and the volume of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) transport is in general agreement with what limited observations exist. On a global basis the zonally integrated meridional heat transport is poleward at all latitudes except for the latitude band 30{degrees}S to 45{degrees}S. This anomalous transport is most likely a signature of the model`s inability to form Antarctic Intermediate (AAIW) and Antarctic bottom water (AABW) properly. Eddy heat transport is strong at the equator where its convergence heats the equatorial Pacific about twice as much as it heats the equatorial Atlantic. The greater heating in the Pacific suggests that mesoscale eddies may be a vital mechanism for warming and maintaining an upwelling portion of the global conveyor-belt circulation. The model`s fresh water transport compares well with observations. However, in the Atlantic there is an excessive southward transport of fresh water due to the absence of the Mediterranean outflow and weak northward flow of AAIW. Perhaps the model`s greatest weakness is the lack of strong AAIW and AABW circulation cells. Accurate thermohaline forcing in the North Atlantic (based on numerous hydrographic observations) helps the model adequately produce NADW. In contrast, the southern ocean is an area of sparse observation. Better thermohaline observations in this area may be needed if models such as this are to produce the deep convection that will achieve more accurate simulations of the global 3-dimensional circulation. 41 refs., 18 figs., 1 tab.

  20. The effect of simple to sophisticated surface processes on the surface energy and hydrologic budgets of a general circulation model

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.K.

    1991-06-01

    Using the Community Climate Model (CCM) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), comparisons have been made of three multi-three simulations in which there is a varying degree of complexity in the land surface parameterization but the model version and prescribed sea surface temperatures are the same. The land surface parameterizations employed are a simple prescription of soil moisture (based on surface type), a 15 cm bucket-type soil moisture and Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) (which, for the version used, simulates a vegetative canopy and two soil layers). This study has shown that the treatment of the surface in a general circulation model (GCM) can effect the surface energy and hydrologic budgets. Both a simple bucket and more sophisticated parameterization (BATS) led to generally drier conditions over land in the summer hemisphere. These drier conditions were noted with a decrease in precipitation and latent heat flux. With the BATS simulation, the decreased latent heat flux over land was accompanied by a strong increase in sensible heat flux due to an increase in net radiation. With the BATS simulation it is difficult to discern if the changes are due to more detailed treatment to the surface or the inclusion of a diurnal cycle. 8 refs., 5 figs.

  1. Sensitivity of model formulation to resolution: an example focusing on the global energy budget in three atmospheric GCMs with various horizontal resolutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demory, Marie-Estelle; Matsueda, Mio; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Roberts, Malcolm

    2013-04-01

    Changes in the global energy budget of the Earth come from changes in the net solar radiation or in the outgoing longwave radiation and can have profound impacts on global-scale features, such as the global hydrological cycle. These fluxes strongly depend on clouds, aerosols and greenhouse gases, whose interactions with the climate system are mainly parameterised in General Circulation Models (GCM). As more and more GCMs are being developed at higher horizontal resolutions, the sensitivity of processes of the climate system to resolution are being explored, over different timescales and spatial scales. In this study, we assess the sensitivity of the simulated global annual energy budget to horizontal resolution in three different atmospheric GCMs that have a hierarchy of similar formulations with different resolutions: the UK Met Office Hadley Centre's HadGEM1-A and HadGEM3-A models, and the Japanese Meteorological Research Institute's MRI-AGCM3.2 model. We will show that, in present-day climate, the global energy budget is well simulated by the three models considered, compared to recently published estimates of the Earth's global energy budget. We will also show that the global energy budget is insensitive to horizontal resolution in both HadGEM1-A and HadGEM3-A, but is sensitive to resolution in MRI-AGCM3.2. These findings emphasise that the sensitivity of the simulated global energy budget to horizontal resolution may depend on model formulation, and we will also present primarily results on the cause of this dependency, whether it depends on tuning, on different resolution adjustments in the parameterisation schemes or on the dynamics of the models. These results show further evidence that the diversity of models' behaviour can simply depend on their resolution, a result that is well known for weather-like features (cyclones, precipitation extremes, blockings), and that this difference in behaviour can also start in the primary driver of the Earth's climate

  2. Carbon budget of tropical forests in Southeast Asia and the effects of deforestation: an approach using a process-based model and field measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adachi, M.; Ito, A.; Ishida, A.; Kadir, W. R.; Ladpala, P.; Yamagata, Y.

    2011-09-01

    More reliable estimates of the carbon (C) stock within forest ecosystems and C emission induced by deforestation are urgently needed to mitigate the effects of emissions on climate change. A process-based terrestrial biogeochemical model (VISIT) was applied to tropical primary forests of two types (a seasonal dry forest in Thailand and a rainforest in Malaysia) and one agro-forest (an oil palm plantation in Malaysia) to estimate the C budget of tropical ecosystems in Southeast Asia, including the impacts of land-use conversion. The observed aboveground biomass in the seasonal dry tropical forest in Thailand (226.3 t C ha-1) and the rainforest in Malaysia (201.5 t C ha-1) indicate that tropical forests of Southeast Asia are among the most C-abundant ecosystems in the world. The model simulation results in rainforests were consistent with field data, except for the NEP, however, the VISIT model tended to underestimate C budget and stock in the seasonal dry tropical forest. The gross primary production (GPP) based on field observations ranged from 32.0 to 39.6 t C ha-1 yr-1 in the two primary forests, whereas the model slightly underestimated GPP (26.5-34.5 t C ha-1 yr-1). The VISIT model appropriately captured the impacts of disturbances such as deforestation and land-use conversions on the C budget. Results of sensitivity analysis showed that the proportion of remaining residual debris was a key parameter determining the soil C budget after the deforestation event. According to the model simulation, the total C stock (total biomass and soil C) of the oil palm plantation was about 35% of the rainforest's C stock at 30 yr following initiation of the plantation. However, there were few field data of C budget and stock, especially in oil palm plantation. The C budget of each ecosystem must be evaluated over the long term using both the model simulations and observations to understand the effects of climate and land-use conversion on C budgets in tropical forest

  3. Psycholinguistic Theory of Learning to Read Compared to the Traditional Theory Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Robert F.

    A comparison of two models of the reading process--the psycholinguistic model, in which learning to read is seen as a top-down, holistic procedure, and the traditional theory model, in which learning to read is seen as a bottom-up, atomistic procedure--is provided in this paper. The first part of the paper provides brief overviews of the following…

  4. Budgeting for School Media Centers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drott, M. Carl

    1978-01-01

    Describes various forms of budgets and discusses concepts in budgeting useful to supervisors of school media centers: line item budgets, capital budgets, creating budgets, the budget calendar, innovations, PPBS (Planning, Programing, Budgeting System), zero-based budgeting, cost-benefit analysis, benefits, benefit guidelines, and budgeting for the…

  5. Implementation ambiguity: The fifth element long lost in uncertainty budgets for land biogeochemical modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, J.; Riley, W. J.

    2015-12-01

    Previous studies have identified four major sources of predictive uncertainty in modeling land biogeochemical (BGC) processes: (1) imperfect initial conditions (e.g., assumption of preindustrial equilibrium); (2) imperfect boundary conditions (e.g., climate forcing data); (3) parameterization (type I equifinality); and (4) model structure (type II equifinality). As if that were not enough to cause substantial sleep loss in modelers, we propose here a fifth element of uncertainty that results from implementation ambiguity that occurs when the model's mathematical description is translated into computational code. We demonstrate the implementation ambiguity using the example of nitrogen down regulation, a necessary process in modeling carbon-climate feedbacks. We show that, depending on common land BGC model interpretations of the governing equations for mineral nitrogen, there are three different implementations of nitrogen down regulation. We coded these three implementations in the ACME land model (ALM), and explored how they lead to different preindustrial and contemporary land biogeochemical states and fluxes. We also show how this implementation ambiguity can lead to different carbon-climate feedback estimates across the RCP scenarios. We conclude by suggesting how to avoid such implementation ambiguity in ESM BGC models.

  6. A Model of Surface Energy Budget over Water, Snow and Ice Surfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, J.; Bras, R. L.

    2012-12-01

    The recently developed maximum entropy production (MEP) model of turbulent and conductive heat fluxes over land surfaces is generalized to water/snow/ice surfaces. Analogous to the case of land surfaces, an analytical solution of latent, sensible and surface water/snow/ice heat flux is derived as a function of surface temperature (e.g. sea surface temperature) and surface net short- and long wave radiation. Compared to the classical bulk transfer equations based models, the MEP model does not need wind speed, near-surface air temperature and roughness lengths as input. The model is parameter parsimonious. A test of the MEP model against observations from several field experiments has suggested its usefulness and potential for predicting conductive and turbulent fluxes over water/snow/ice surfaces. The model is a suitable tool for remote sensing of the surface energy balance over oceans, snow covered Antarctica and sea ice. The model can also be incorporated into regional and global atmospheric models as an alternative algorithm for surface energy/water balance.

  7. The Effect of Directional Radiation Models on the Interpretation of Earth Radiation Budget Measurements.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Green, Richard N.

    1980-10-01

    A parameter estimation technique is presented to estimate the radiative flux density distribution over the earn from a set of radiometer measurements at satellite altitude. The technique analyzes measurements from a wide field of view, horizon to horizon. nadir pointing sensor with a mathematical technique to derive the radiative flux density estimates at the top of the atmosphere for resolution elements smaller than the sensor field of view. A computer simulation of the data analysis technique is presented for both earth-emitted and reflected radiation.The errors resulting from the assumed directional radiation model, spatial model and random measurement error have little effect an the global mean radiation. Zonal estimates were found to be more sensitive, to the spatial model than to the directional radiation model. Results from analysing medium field of view measurements showed a much greater sensitivity to the directional radiation model, even on a global scale.

  8. Using ensemble of climate models to evaluate future water and solutes budgets in Lake Kinneret, Israel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rimmer, Alon; Givati, Amir; Samuels, Rana; Alpert, Pinhas

    2011-11-01

    SummaryIdentifying and quantifying future climate effects on water resources has major economic and societal implications, rendering such studies extremely important for water planners. Here we integrate output from one high resolution global (Japan Meteorological Agency) and three regional (ECHAM-RegCM, Hadley-MM5, ECHAM-MM5) climate models into three hydrological tools (1. annual incoming water volumes; 2. evaporation from the lake; and 3. lake salinity) to provide first approximations of climate change impacts on water quantity and quality in Lake Kinneret (also known as Sea of Galilee), the major freshwater resource in Israel. Meteorological data extracted from the climate models were used as input data into the models. Results were calculated for the historical 1979-2009 and the future 2015-2060 periods. The modeled historical period was verified against observed data, first by each model alone, and then by the combined model structure. Predicted results varied between the climate models. The ECHAM-RegCM predicted decreased precipitation in an average rate of ˜7 mm year -1 (-0.8% annually) while the trends of precipitation predicted by the other models were less obvious. According to the combination of ECHAM-RegCM, ECHAM-MM5 and Hadley-MM5 with the lake evaporation model, the evaporation will increase by 0.2-0.6 Mm 3 (0.10-0.25%) annually while according to the JMA no trend was found. The lake salinity is mostly impacted by changes in inflows and therefore only the ECHAM-RegCM predicted significant increase of salinity (from 280 ppm Cl today to ˜450 ppm Cl in 2060), while the trends of salinity according to other models were mild.

  9. Theory, modeling, and simulation annual report, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-05-01

    This report briefly discusses research on the following topics: development of electronic structure methods; modeling molecular processes in clusters; modeling molecular processes in solution; modeling molecular processes in separations chemistry; modeling interfacial molecular processes; modeling molecular processes in the atmosphere; methods for periodic calculations on solids; chemistry and physics of minerals; graphical user interfaces for computational chemistry codes; visualization and analysis of molecular simulations; integrated computational chemistry environment; and benchmark computations.

  10. Theory and model use in social marketing health interventions.

    PubMed

    Luca, Nadina Raluca; Suggs, L Suzanne

    2013-01-01

    The existing literature suggests that theories and models can serve as valuable frameworks for the design and evaluation of health interventions. However, evidence on the use of theories and models in social marketing interventions is sparse. The purpose of this systematic review is to identify to what extent papers about social marketing health interventions report using theory, which theories are most commonly used, and how theory was used. A systematic search was conducted for articles that reported social marketing interventions for the prevention or management of cancer, diabetes, heart disease, HIV, STDs, and tobacco use, and behaviors related to reproductive health, physical activity, nutrition, and smoking cessation. Articles were published in English, after 1990, reported an evaluation, and met the 6 social marketing benchmarks criteria (behavior change, consumer research, segmentation and targeting, exchange, competition and marketing mix). Twenty-four articles, describing 17 interventions, met the inclusion criteria. Of these 17 interventions, 8 reported using theory and 7 stated how it was used. The transtheoretical model/stages of change was used more often than other theories. Findings highlight an ongoing lack of use or underreporting of the use of theory in social marketing campaigns and reinforce the call to action for applying and reporting theory to guide and evaluate interventions. PMID:22934539

  11. Mechanical Regulation of Bone Regeneration: Theories, Models, and Experiments

    PubMed Central

    Betts, Duncan Colin; Müller, Ralph

    2014-01-01

    How mechanical forces influence the regeneration of bone remains an open question. Their effect has been demonstrated experimentally, which has allowed mathematical theories of mechanically driven tissue differentiation to be developed. Many simulations driven by these theories have been presented, however, validation of these models has remained difficult due to the number of independent parameters considered. An overview of these theories and models is presented along with a review of experimental studies and the factors they consider. Finally limitations of current experimental data and how this influences modeling are discussed and potential solutions are proposed. PMID:25540637

  12. The surface radiation budget over South America in a set of regional climate models from the CLARIS-LPB project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pessacg, Natalia L.; Solman, Silvina A.; Samuelsson, Patrick; Sanchez, Enrique; Marengo, José; Li, Laurent; Remedio, Armelle Reca C.; da Rocha, Rosmeri P.; Mourão, Caroline; Jacob, Daniela

    2014-09-01

    The performance of seven regional climate models in simulating the radiation and heat fluxes at the surface over South America (SA) is evaluated. Sources of uncertainty and errors are identified. All simulations have been performed in the context of the CLARIS-LPB Project for the period 1990-2008 and are compared with the GEWEX-SRB, CRU, and GLDAS2 dataset and NCEP-NOAA reanalysis. Results showed that most of the models overestimate the net surface short-wave radiation over tropical SA and La Plata Basin and underestimate it over oceanic regions. Errors in the short-wave radiation are mainly associated with uncertainties in the representation of surface albedo and cloud fraction. For the net surface long-wave radiation, model biases are diverse. However, the ensemble mean showed a good agreement with the GEWEX-SRB dataset due to the compensation of individual model biases. Errors in the net surface long-wave radiation can be explained, in a large proportion, by errors in cloud fraction. For some particular models, errors in temperature also contribute to errors in the net long-wave radiation. Analysis of the annual cycle of each component of the energy budget indicates that the RCMs reproduce generally well the main characteristics of the short- and long-wave radiations in terms of timing and amplitude. However, a large spread among models over tropical SA is apparent. The annual cycle of the sensible heat flux showed a strong overestimation in comparison with the reanalysis and GLDAS2 dataset. For the latent heat flux, strong differences between the reanalysis and GLDAS2 are calculated particularly over tropical SA.

  13. Mean Kinetic Energy Budget of Wakes Within Model Wind Farms: Comparison of an Array of Model Wind Turbines and Porous Discs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camp, E.; Cal, R. B.

    2015-12-01

    To optimize the power production of large wind farms, it is important to understand the flow within the wind turbine array as well as its interaction with the surrounding atmosphere. Computational simulations are often employed to study both the velocity field within and immediately above wind farms. In many computational studies, wind turbines are modeled as stationary, porous actuator discs. A wind tunnel study is done in order to compare the wakes within an array of porous discs and an equivalent array of model wind turbines. To characterize the wakes within a 4×3 model wind farm, stereoscopic particle image velocimetry (SPIV) is employed. SPIV measurements focus on the region along the centerline of the array upstream and downstream of the center turbine in the fourth row. The computed mean flow fields and turbulent stresses provide a basis to compare the near and far wakes of the turbines with those of the porous discs. The detailed analysis of the wakes for each case focus on the mean kinetic energy budget within the wakes. Examining the mean kinetic energy budget is done via computing the mean kinetic energy, flux of kinetic energy, and production of turbulence which are analogous to a measure of extracted power.

  14. Scaling theory of depinning in the Sneppen model

    SciTech Connect

    Maslov, S.; Paczuski, M. Department of Physics, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, New York 11790 The Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, 20 Clarkson Road, Cambridge CB4 0EH )

    1994-08-01

    We develop a scaling theory for the critical depinning behavior of the Sneppen interface model [Phys. Rev. Lett. [bold 69], 3539 (1992)]. This theory is based on a gap'' equation that describes the self-organization process to a critical state of the depinning transition. All of the critical exponents can be expressed in terms of two independent exponents, [nu][sub [parallel

  15. Reframing Leadership Pedagogy through Model and Theory Building.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mello, Jeffrey A.

    1999-01-01

    Leadership theories formed the basis of a course assignment with four objectives: understanding complex factors affecting leadership dynamics, developing abilities to assess organizational factors influencing leadership, practicing model and theory building, and viewing leadership from a multicultural perspective. The assignment was to develop a…

  16. Spin Kinetic Models of Plasmas - Semiclassical and Quantum Mechanical Theory

    SciTech Connect

    Brodin, Gert; Marklund, Mattias; Zamanian, Jens

    2009-11-10

    In this work a recently published semiclassical spin kinetic model, generalizing those of previous authors are discussed. Some previously described properties are reviewed, and a new example illustrating the theory is presented. The generalization to a fully quantum mechanical description is discussed, and the main features of such a theory is outlined. Finally, the main conclusions are presented.

  17. HCMM energy budget data as a model input for assessing regions of high potential groundwater pollution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, D. G. (Principal Investigator); Tunheim, J. A.; Heilman, J.

    1977-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. The finite difference model was used to calculate the differences in surface temperature between two hypothetical sites which result from a temperature difference at 50 cm due to the presence of shallow ground water at one of the sites. Although qualitative results of the model seemed consistant with experimental results, further evaluation showed a need for taking account of differences in thermal conductivity due to different moisture profiles at the two sites considered.

  18. Gaining insight in the interaction of zinc and population density with a combined dynamic energy budget and population model.

    PubMed

    Klok, Chris

    2008-12-01

    Laboratory tests are typically conducted under optimal conditions testing the single effect of a toxicant In the field, due to suboptimal conditions, density dependence can both diminish and enhance effects of toxicants on populations. A review of the literature indicated that general insight on interaction of density and toxicants is lacking, and therefore no predictions on their combined action can be made. In this paper the influence of zinc was tested at different population densities on the demographic rates: growth, reproduction, and survival in the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus. Changes in these rates were extrapolated with a combined Dynamic energy budget (DEB) and a population model to assess consequences at the population level. Inference from the DEB model indicated that density decreased the assimilation of food whereas zinc increased the maintenance costs. The combined effects of density and zinc resulted in a decrease in the intrinsic rate of population increase which suddenly dropped to zero at combinations of zinc and density where development is so strongly retarded that individuals do not mature. This already happened at zinc levels where zinc induced mortality is low and therefore density enhances zinc effects and density dependent compensation is not expected. PMID:19192801

  19. Fruiting Strategies of Perennial Plants: A Resource Budget Model to Couple Mast Seeding to Pollination Efficiency and Resource Allocation Strategies.

    PubMed

    Venner, Samuel; Siberchicot, Aurélie; Pélisson, Pierre-François; Schermer, Eliane; Bel-Venner, Marie-Claude; Nicolas, Manuel; Débias, François; Miele, Vincent; Sauzet, Sandrine; Boulanger, Vincent; Delzon, Sylvain

    2016-07-01

    Masting, a breeding strategy common in perennial plants, is defined by seed production that is highly variable over years and synchronized at the population level. Resource budget models (RBMs) proposed that masting relies on two processes: (i) the depletion of plant reserves following high fruiting levels, which leads to marked temporal fluctuations in fruiting; and (ii) outcross pollination that synchronizes seed crops among neighboring trees. We revisited the RBM approach to examine the extent to which masting could be impacted by the degree of pollination efficiency, by taking into account various logistic relationships between pollination success and pollen availability. To link masting to other reproductive traits, we split the reserve depletion coefficient into three biological parameters related to resource allocation strategies for flowering and fruiting. While outcross pollination is considered to be the key mechanism that synchronizes fruiting in RBMs, our model counterintuitively showed that intense masting should arise under low-efficiency pollination. When pollination is very efficient, medium-level masting may occur, provided that the costs of female flowering (relative to pollen production) and of fruiting (maximum fruit set and fruit size) are both very high. Our work highlights the powerful framework of RBMs, which include explicit biological parameters, to link fruiting dynamics to various reproductive traits and to provide new insights into the reproductive strategies of perennial plants. PMID:27322122

  20. MOPS-1.0: towards a model for the regulation of the global oceanic nitrogen budget by marine biogeochemical processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kriest, I.; Oschlies, A.

    2015-09-01

    Global models of the oceanic nitrogen cycle are subject to many uncertainties regarding the representation of the relevant biogeochemical processes and of the feedbacks between nitrogen sources and sinks that determine space- and timescales on which the global nitrogen budget is regulated. We investigate these aspects using a global model of ocean biogeochemistry that explicitly considers phosphorus and nitrogen, including pelagic denitrification and nitrogen fixation as sink and source terms of fixed nitrogen, respectively. The model explores different parameterizations of organic matter sinking speed, oxidant affinity of oxic and suboxic remineralization, and regulation of nitrogen fixation by temperature and different stoichiometric ratios. Examination of the initial transient behavior of different model setups initialized from observed biogeochemical tracer distributions reveal changes in simulated nitrogen inventories and fluxes particularly during the first centuries. Millennial timescales have to be resolved in order to bring all biogeochemical and physical processes into a dynamically consistent steady state. Analysis of global properties suggests that not only particularly particle sinking speed but also the parameterization of denitrification determine the extent of oxygen minimum zones, global nitrogen fluxes, and hence the oceanic nitrogen inventory. However, the ways and directions in which different parameterizations of particle sinking, nitrogen fixation, and denitrification affect the global diagnostics are different suggesting that these may, in principle, be constrained independently from each other. Analysis of the model misfit with respect to observed biogeochemical tracer distributions and fluxes suggests a particle flux profile close to the one suggested by Martin et al. (1987). Simulated pelagic denitrification best agrees with the lower values between 59 and 84 Tg N yr-1 recently estimated by other authors.

  1. Consistency of Earth Radiation Budget Experiment bidirectional models and the observed anisotropy of reflected sunlight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baldwin, Daniel G.; Coakley, James A., Jr.

    1991-01-01

    The anisotropy of the radiance field estimated from bidirectional models derived from Nimbus 7 ERB scanner data is compared with the anisotropy observed with the ERB Experiment (ERBE) scanner aboard the ERB satellite. The results of averaging over groups of 40 ERBE scanner scan lines for a period of a month revealed significant differences between the modeled and the observed anisotropy for given scene types and the sun-earth-satellite viewing geometries. By comparing the radiative fluxes derived using the observed anisotropy with those derived assuming isotropic reflection, it is concluded that a reasonable estimate for the maximum error due to the use of incorrect bidirectional models is a bias of about 4 percent for a typical 2.5 deg latitude-longitude monthly mean, and an rms error of 15 percent.

  2. Studies of the Earth Energy Budget and Water Cycle Using Satellite Observations and Model Analyses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Campbell, G. G.; VonderHarr, T. H.; Randel, D. L.; Kidder, S. Q.

    1997-01-01

    During this research period we have utilized the ERBE data set in comparisons to surface properties and water vapor observations in the atmosphere. A relationship between cloudiness and surface temperature anomalies was found. This same relationship was found in a general circulation model, verifying the model. The attempt to construct a homogeneous time series from Nimbus 6, Nimbus 7 and ERBE data is not complete because we are still waiting for the ERBE reanalysis to be completed. It will be difficult to merge the Nimbus 6 data in because its observations occurred when the average weather was different than the other periods, so regression adjustments are not effective.

  3. Assessment of Wireless Link Budget in a Satellite by Modelling Techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gineste, P.-N.; Herlem, Y.; Outay, A.; Pelissou, P.

    2012-05-01

    The present study is related to the ESA/ASTRIUM contract n°4500082825 entitled "Wireless Intra- Spacecraft communications", whose objectives cover the design, development and validation of a RF wireless communications system for use in spacecraft Assembly Integration and Verification (AIV). This paper presents the main outcomes of this study, whose main objective was to assess, by modelling techniques, the possibility of using wireless communication inside satellite for AIT (Assembly, Integration and Tests) purposes. Comparisons with tests have been done in order to validate the numerical model and statistic data have been established.

  4. HCMM energy budget data as a model input for assessing regions of high potential groundwater pollution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, D. G. (Principal Investigator); Heilman, J.; Tunheim, J. A.; Baumberger, V.

    1978-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. To investigate the general relationship between surface temperature and soil moisture profiles, a series of model calculations were carried out. Soil temperature profiles were calculated during a complete diurnal cycle for a variety of moisture profiles. Preliminary results indicate the surface temperature difference between two sites measured at about 1400 hours is related to the difference in soil moisture within the diurnal damping depth (about 50 cm). The model shows this temperature difference to vary considerably throughout the diurnal cycle.

  5. Teaching Wound Care Management: A Model for the Budget Conscious Educator

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berry, David C.

    2012-01-01

    For the author, the concept of wound care has always been a challenging topic to demonstrate. How to teach the concept without having a student in need of wound care or without having to spend money to buy another simulation manikin/model? The author has recently created a simulation to demonstrate and practice the cleaning, closing, and dressing…

  6. GEOtop, a model with coupled water and energy budgets and non linear hydrological interactions. (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Endrizzi, S.; Gruber, S.; Dall'Amico, M.; Rigon, R.

    2013-12-01

    This contribution describes the new version of GEOtop which emerges after almost eight years of development from the original version. GEOtop now integrate the 3D Richards equation with a new numerical method; improvements were made on the treatment of surface waters by using the shallow water equation. The freezing-soil module was greatly improved, and the evapotranspiration -vegetation modelling is now based on a double layer scheme. Here we discuss the rational of each choice that was made, and we compare the differences between the actual solutions and the old solutions. In doing we highlight the issues that we faced during the development, including the trade-off between complexity and simplicity of the code, the requirements of a shared development, the different branches that were opened during the evolution of the code, and why we think that a code like GEOtop is indeed necessary. Models where the hydrological cycle is simplified can be built on the base of perceptual models that neglects some fundamental aspects of the hydrological processes, of which some examples are presented. At the same time, also process-based models like GEOtop can indeed neglect some fundamental process: but this is made evident with the comparison with measurements, especially when data are imposed ex-ante, instead than calibrated.

  7. Internal bores: An improved model via a detailed analysis of the energy budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borden, Zachary; Koblitz, Tilman; Meiburg, Eckart

    2010-11-01

    Internal bores, or hydraulic jumps, arise in many atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena. The classic single-layer hydraulic jump model accurately predicts a bore's behavior when the density difference between the expanding and contracting layer is large (i.e. water and air), but fails in the Boussinesq limit. A two-layer model, where mass is conserved separately in each layer and momentum is conserved globally, does a much better job but requires for closure an assumption about the loss of energy across a bore. Through the use of 2D direct numerical simulations, we show that there is a transfer of energy from the contracting to the expanding layer due to viscous stresses at the interface. Based on the simulation results, we propose a two-layer model that provides an accurate bore velocity as function of all geometrical parameters, as well as the Reynolds and Schmidt numbers. We also extend our analysis to non-Boussinesq internal bores to bridge the gap between the single and two-layer models.

  8. 42 CFR 441.550 - Service plan requirements for self-directed model with service budget.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ..., DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS SERVICES: REQUIREMENTS AND... Plan Option (Community First Choice) § 441.550 Service plan requirements for self-directed model with... attendant care providers to provide self-directed Community First Choice services and supports,...

  9. 42 CFR 441.550 - Service plan requirements for self-directed model with service budget.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ..., DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS SERVICES: REQUIREMENTS AND... Plan Option (Community First Choice) § 441.550 Service plan requirements for self-directed model with... attendant care providers to provide self-directed Community First Choice services and supports,...

  10. A model of the measurement process in quantum theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diel, H. H.

    2015-07-01

    The so-called measurement problem of quantum theory (QT) is still lacking a satisfactory, or at least widely agreed upon, solution. A number of theories, known as interpretations of quantum theory, have been proposed and found differing acceptance among physicists. Most of the proposed theories try to explain what happens during a QT measurement using a modification of the declarative equations that define the possible results of a measurement of QT observables or by making assumptions outside the scope of falsifiable physics. This paper proposes a solution to the QT measurement problem in terms of a model of the process for the evolution of two QT systems that interact in a way that represents a measurement. The model assumes that the interactions between the measured QT object and the measurement apparatus are ’’normal” interactions which adhere to the laws of quantum field theory.

  11. Convergent perturbation theory for lattice models with fermions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sazonov, V. K.

    2016-05-01

    The standard perturbation theory in QFT and lattice models leads to the asymptotic expansions. However, an appropriate regularization of the path or lattice integrals allows one to construct convergent series with an infinite radius of the convergence. In the earlier studies, this approach was applied to the purely bosonic systems. Here, using bosonization, we develop the convergent perturbation theory for a toy lattice model with interacting fermionic and bosonic fields.

  12. Conceptual development: an adaptive resonance theory model of polysemy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunbar, George L.

    1997-04-01

    Adaptive Resonance Theory provides a model of pattern classification that addresses the plasticity--stability dilemma and allows a neural network to detect when to construct a new category without the assistance of a supervisor. We show that Adaptive Resonance Theory can be applied to the study of natural concept development. Specifically, a model is presented which is able to categorize different usages of a common noun and group the polysemous senses appropriately.

  13. Parameter Estimations of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) Model over the Life History of a Key Antarctic Species: The Antarctic Sea Star Odontaster validus Koehler, 1906.

    PubMed

    Agüera, Antonio; Collard, Marie; Jossart, Quentin; Moreau, Camille; Danis, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    Marine organisms in Antarctica are adapted to an extreme ecosystem including extremely stable temperatures and strong seasonality due to changes in day length. It is now largely accepted that Southern Ocean organisms are particularly vulnerable to global warming with some regions already being challenged by a rapid increase of temperature. Climate change affects both the physical and biotic components of marine ecosystems and will have an impact on the distribution and population dynamics of Antarctic marine organisms. To predict and assess the effect of climate change on marine ecosystems a more comprehensive knowledge of the life history and physiology of key species is urgently needed. In this study we estimate the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model parameters for key benthic Antarctic species the sea star Odontaster validus using available information from literature and experiments. The DEB theory is unique in capturing the metabolic processes of an organism through its entire life cycle as a function of temperature and food availability. The DEB model allows for the inclusion of the different life history stages, and thus, becomes a tool that can be used to model lifetime feeding, growth, reproduction, and their responses to changes in biotic and abiotic conditions. The DEB model presented here includes the estimation of reproduction handling rules for the development of simultaneous oocyte cohorts within the gonad. Additionally it links the DEB model reserves to the pyloric caeca an organ whose function has long been ascribed to energy storage. Model parameters described a slowed down metabolism of long living animals that mature slowly. O. validus has a large reserve that-matching low maintenance costs- allow withstanding long periods of starvation. Gonad development is continuous and individual cohorts developed within the gonads grow in biomass following a power function of the age of the cohort. The DEB model developed here for O. validus allowed us to

  14. Parameter Estimations of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) Model over the Life History of a Key Antarctic Species: The Antarctic Sea Star Odontaster validus Koehler, 1906

    PubMed Central

    Agüera, Antonio; Collard, Marie; Jossart, Quentin; Moreau, Camille; Danis, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    Marine organisms in Antarctica are adapted to an extreme ecosystem including extremely stable temperatures and strong seasonality due to changes in day length. It is now largely accepted that Southern Ocean organisms are particularly vulnerable to global warming with some regions already being challenged by a rapid increase of temperature. Climate change affects both the physical and biotic components of marine ecosystems and will have an impact on the distribution and population dynamics of Antarctic marine organisms. To predict and assess the effect of climate change on marine ecosystems a more comprehensive knowledge of the life history and physiology of key species is urgently needed. In this study we estimate the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model parameters for key benthic Antarctic species the sea star Odontaster validus using available information from literature and experiments. The DEB theory is unique in capturing the metabolic processes of an organism through its entire life cycle as a function of temperature and food availability. The DEB model allows for the inclusion of the different life history stages, and thus, becomes a tool that can be used to model lifetime feeding, growth, reproduction, and their responses to changes in biotic and abiotic conditions. The DEB model presented here includes the estimation of reproduction handling rules for the development of simultaneous oocyte cohorts within the gonad. Additionally it links the DEB model reserves to the pyloric caeca an organ whose function has long been ascribed to energy storage. Model parameters described a slowed down metabolism of long living animals that mature slowly. O. validus has a large reserve that—matching low maintenance costs- allow withstanding long periods of starvation. Gonad development is continuous and individual cohorts developed within the gonads grow in biomass following a power function of the age of the cohort. The DEB model developed here for O. validus allowed us to

  15. Consumer preference models: fuzzy theory approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turksen, I. B.; Wilson, I. A.

    1993-12-01

    Consumer preference models are widely used in new product design, marketing management, pricing and market segmentation. The purpose of this article is to develop and test a fuzzy set preference model which can represent linguistic variables in individual-level models implemented in parallel with existing conjoint models. The potential improvements in market share prediction and predictive validity can substantially improve management decisions about what to make (product design), for whom to make it (market segmentation) and how much to make (market share prediction).

  16. The chlorine budget of the present-day atmosphere - A modeling study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weisenstein, Debra K.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Sze, Nien-Dak

    1992-01-01

    The contribution of source gases to the total amount of inorganic chlorine (ClY) is examined analytically with a time-dependent model employing 11 source gases. The source-gas emission data are described, and the modeling methodology is set forth with attention given to the data interpretation. The abundances and distributions are obtained for all 11 source gases with corresponding ClY production rates and mixing ratios. It is shown that the ClY production rate and the ClY mixing ratio for each source gas are spatially dependent, and the change in the relative contributions from 1950 to 1990 is given. Ozone changes in the past decade are characterized by losses in the polar and midlatitude lower stratosphere. The values for CFC-11, CCl4, and CH3CCl3 suggest that they are more evident in the lower stratosphere than is suggested by steady-state estimates based on surface concentrations.

  17. The radiation budget of a Cirrus layer deduced from simultaneous aircraft observations and model calculations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ackerman, Thomas P.; Kinne, Stefan A.; Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Valero, Francisco P. J.

    1990-01-01

    Several aircraft were employed during the FIRE Cirrus IFO in order to make nearly simultaneous observations of cloud properties and fluxes. A segment of the flight data collected on 28 October 1988 during which the NASA Ames ER-2 overflew the NCAR King Air was analyzed. The ER-2 flew at high altitude making observations of visible and infrared radiances and infrared flux and cloud height and thickness. During this segment, the King Air flew just above the cloud base making observations of ice crystal size and shape, local meteorological variables, and infrared fluxes. While the two aircraft did not collect data exactly coincident in space and time, they did make observations within a few minutes of each other. For this case study, the infrared radiation balance of the cirrus layer is of primary concern. Observations of the upwelling 10 micron radiance, made from the ER-2, can be used to deduce the 10 micron optical depth of the layer. The upwelling broadband infrared flux is also measured from the ER-2. At the same time, the upwelling and downwelling infrared flux at the cloud base is obtained from the King Air measurements. Information on cloud microphysics is also available from the King Air. Using this data in conjunction with atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles from local radiosondes, the necessary inputs for an infrared radiative transfer model can be developed. Infrared radiative transfer calculations are performed with a multispectral two-stream model. The model fluxes at the cloud base and at 19 km are then compared with the aircraft observations to determine whether the model is performing well. Cloud layer heating rates can then be computed from the radiation exchange.

  18. A Dynamic Systems Theory Model of Visual Perception Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coté, Carol A.

    2015-01-01

    This article presents a model for understanding the development of visual perception from a dynamic systems theory perspective. It contrasts to a hierarchical or reductionist model that is often found in the occupational therapy literature. In this proposed model vision and ocular motor abilities are not foundational to perception, they are seen…

  19. A Sharing Item Response Theory Model for Computerized Adaptive Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Segall, Daniel O.

    2004-01-01

    A new sharing item response theory (SIRT) model is presented that explicitly models the effects of sharing item content between informants and test takers. This model is used to construct adaptive item selection and scoring rules that provide increased precision and reduced score gains in instances where sharing occurs. The adaptive item selection…

  20. Bianchi class A models in Sàez-Ballester's theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Socorro, J.; Espinoza-García, Abraham

    2012-08-01

    We apply the Sàez-Ballester (SB) theory to Bianchi class A models, with a barotropic perfect fluid in a stiff matter epoch. We obtain exact classical solutions à la Hamilton for Bianchi type I, II and VIh=-1 models. We also find exact quantum solutions to all Bianchi Class A models employing a particular ansatz for the wave function of the universe.

  1. Water budget and mathematical model of the Coconino Aquifer, southern Navajo County, Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mann, Larry J.

    1979-01-01

    The main source of water in the 3,400-square-mile area of southern Navajo County, Ariz., is the large volume in storage in the Coconino aquifer. Withdrawals from the aquifer increased from about 13,800 acre-feet in 1960 to 38,400 acre-feet in 1972. Aquifer tests indicate that hydraulic conductivity ranges from 8 to 40 feet per day; the flow-net analysis indicates that the hydraulic conductivity may be as much as 80 feet per day in places. In the southern and central parts the aquifer is unconfined, and the storage coefficient is estimated to be about 0.15. In the northern and eastern parts the aquifer is confined, and the storage coefficient ranges from 0.00013 to 0.0014. A mathematical model was developed to simulate the groundwater system and to provide a management tool for estimating the effects of pumping. The model indicates that the inflow to and outflow from the aquifer were about 105,600 acre-feet in 1960 and that about 192,000 acre-feet of water was derived from storage in 1960-72. The model provides an approximation of the Coconino aquifer. (USGS)

  2. Dynamic Electrothermal Model of a Sputtered Thermopile Thermal Radiation Detector for Earth Radiation Budget Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weckmann, Stephanie

    1997-01-01

    The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) is a program sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) aimed at evaluating the global energy balance. Current scanning radiometers used for CERES consist of thin-film thermistor bolometers viewing the Earth through a Cassegrain telescope. The Thermal Radiation Group, a laboratory in the Department of Mechanical Engineering at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, is currently studying a new sensor concept to replace the current bolometer: a thermopile thermal radiation detector. This next-generation detector would consist of a thermal sensor array made of thermocouple junction pairs, or thermopiles. The objective of the current research is to perform a thermal analysis of the thermopile. Numerical thermal models are particularly suited to solve problems for which temperature is the dominant mechanism of the operation of the device (through the thermoelectric effect), as well as for complex geometries composed of numerous different materials. Feasibility and design specifications are studied by developing a dynamic electrothermal model of the thermopile using the finite element method. A commercial finite element-modeling package, ALGOR, is used.

  3. Measurement-derived heat-budget approaches for simulating coastal wetland temperature with a hydrodynamic model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Swain, Eric; Decker, Jeremy

    2010-01-01

    Numerical modeling is needed to predict environmental temperatures, which affect a number of biota in southern Florida, U.S.A., such as the West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus), which uses thermal basins for refuge from lethal winter cold fronts. To numerically simulate heat-transport through a dynamic coastal wetland region, an algorithm was developed for the FTLOADDS coupled hydrodynamic surface-water/ground-water model that uses formulations and coefficients suited to the coastal wetland thermal environment. In this study, two field sites provided atmospheric data to develop coefficients for the heat flux terms representing this particular study area. Several methods were examined to represent the heat-flux components used to compute temperature. A Dalton equation was compared with a Penman formulation for latent heat computations, producing similar daily-average temperatures. Simulation of heat-transport in the southern Everglades indicates that the model represents the daily fluctuation in coastal temperatures better than at inland locations; possibly due to the lack of information on the spatial variations in heat-transport parameters such as soil heat capacity and surface albedo. These simulation results indicate that the new formulation is suitable for defining the existing thermohydrologic system and evaluating the ecological effect of proposed restoration efforts in the southern Everglades of Florida.

  4. The monster sporadic group and a theory underlying superstring models

    SciTech Connect

    Chapline, G.

    1996-09-01

    The pattern of duality symmetries acting on the states of compactified superstring models reinforces an earlier suggestion that the Monster sporadic group is a hidden symmetry for superstring models. This in turn points to a supersymmetric theory of self-dual and anti-self-dual K3 manifolds joined by Dirac strings and evolving in a 13 dimensional spacetime as the fundamental theory. In addition to the usual graviton and dilaton this theory contains matter-like degrees of freedom resembling the massless states of the heterotic string, thus providing a completely geometric interpretation for ordinary matter. 25 refs.

  5. Influence of a step-like coastline on the basin scale vorticity budget of mid-latitude gyre models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dupont, Frédéric; Straub, David N.; Lin, Charles A.

    2003-05-01

    Global vorticity budgets in C-grid shallow water (SW) and quasi-geostrophic (QG) models of wind-driven ocean circulation with free-slip boundary conditions are considered. For both models, it is pointed out that the discretized vorticity equation is defined only over a subdomain that excludes boundary grid nodes. At finite resolution, this implies an advective flux of vorticity across the perimeter of the discretized vorticity domain. For rectangular basins where grid axes are aligned with the basin walls, this flux tends to zero as resolution is increased. We also consider the case in which the grid is rotated with respect to the basin, so that a step-like coastline results. Increased resolution then leads to more steps and, because the advective flux of vorticity out of the domain is particularly large at steps, it is no longer obvious that increased resolution should reduce the advective flux. Results are found to be sensitive to numerical details. In particular, we consider different formulations for the non-linear terms (for both the SW and QG models) and two formulations of the viscous stress tensor for the SW model [the conventional five-point Laplacian and the δ ζ stress tensor suggested by Madec et al. (J. Phys. Oceanogr. 21, 1349 1371)]. For the SW model, the overall circulation and the behavior of the flux term are dependent on both the formulation of the viscous stress tensor and the non-linear terms. The best combination is found to be the δ ζ tensor with an enstrophy-preserving advection scheme. With this combination, the circulation of the non-rotated basin is recovered in rotated basins and the advective flux tends to converge towards zero with increasing resolution. The poorest combination is the δ ζ tensor with the conventional advective scheme. In this case, the advective flux term diverges with increasing resolution for some rotation angles and the model crashes for some others. For the QG

  6. Mathematical Modelling and New Theories of Learning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boaler, Jo

    2001-01-01

    Demonstrates the importance of expanding notions of learning beyond knowledge to the practices in mathematics classrooms. Considers a three-year study of students who learned through mathematical modeling. Shows that a modeling approach encouraged the development of a range of important practices in addition to knowledge that were useful in real…

  7. Baldrige Theory into Practice: A Generic Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arif, Mohammed

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: The education system globally has moved from a push-based or producer-centric system to a pull-based or customer centric system. Malcolm Baldrige Quality Award (MBQA) model happens to be one of the latest additions to the pull based models. The purpose of this paper is to develop a generic framework for MBQA that can be used by…

  8. The Family FIRO Model: The Integration of Group Theory and Family Theory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Colangelo, Nicholas; Doherty, William J.

    1988-01-01

    Presents the Family Fundamental Interpersonal Relations Orientation (Family FIRO) Model, an integration of small-group theory and family therapy. The model is offered as a framework for organizing family issues. Discusses three fundamental issues of human relatedness and their applicability to group dynamics. (Author/NB)

  9. Global model simulations of the impact of ocean-going ships on aerosols, clouds, and the radiation budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lauer, A.; Eyring, V.; Hendricks, J.; Jöckel, P.; Lohmann, U.

    2007-07-01

    International shipping contributes significantly to the fuel consumption of all transport related activities. Specific emissions of pollutants such as sulfur dioxide (SO2) per kg of fuel emitted are higher than for road transport or aviation. Besides gaseous pollutants, ships also emit various types of particulate matter. The aerosol impacts the Earth's radiation budget directly by scattering and absorbing incoming solar radiation and indirectly by changing cloud properties. Here we use ECHAM5/MESSy1-MADE, a global climate model with detailed aerosol and cloud microphysics, to show that emissions from ships significantly increase the cloud droplet number concentration of low maritime water clouds. Whereas the cloud liquid water content remains nearly unchanged in these simulations, effective radii of cloud droplets decrease, leading to cloud optical thickness increase up to 5-10%. The sensitivity of the results is estimated by using three different emission inventories for present day conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that shipping contributes with 2.3% to 3.6% to the total sulfate burden and 0.4% to 1.4% to the total black carbon burden in the year 2000. In addition to changes in aerosol chemical composition, shipping increases the aerosol number concentration, e.g. up to 25% in the size range of the accumulation mode (typically >0.1 μm) over the Atlantic. The total aerosol optical thickness over the Indian Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Northeastern Pacific increases up to 8-10% depending on the emission inventory. Changes in aerosol optical thickness caused by the shipping induced modification of aerosol particle number concentration and chemical composition lead to a change of the net top of the atmosphere (ToA) clear sky radiation of about -0.013 W/m2 to -0.036 W/m2 on global annual average. The estimated all-sky direct aerosol effect calculated from these changes ranges between -0.009 W/m2 and -0.014 W/m2. The indirect aerosol effect of ships

  10. Measurement Models for Reasoned Action Theory

    PubMed Central

    Hennessy, Michael; Bleakley, Amy; Fishbein, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Quantitative researchers distinguish between causal and effect indicators. What are the analytic problems when both types of measures are present in a quantitative reasoned action analysis? To answer this question, we use data from a longitudinal study to estimate the association between two constructs central to reasoned action theory: behavioral beliefs and attitudes toward the behavior. The belief items are causal indicators that define a latent variable index while the attitude items are effect indicators that reflect the operation of a latent variable scale. We identify the issues when effect and causal indicators are present in a single analysis and conclude that both types of indicators can be incorporated in the analysis of data based on the reasoned action approach. PMID:23243315

  11. Understanding Rasch Measurement: The Rasch Model, Additive Conjoint Measurement, and New Models of Probabilistic Measurement Theory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karabatsos, George

    2001-01-01

    Describes similarities and differences between additive conjoint measurement and the Rasch model, and formalizes some new nonparametric item response models that are, in a sense, probabilistic measurement theory models. Applies these new models to published and simulated data. (SLD)

  12. Isocyanic acid in a global chemistry transport model: Tropospheric distribution, budget, and identification of regions with potential health impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Young, Paul. J.; Emmons, Louisa K.; Roberts, James M.; Lamarque, Jean-FrançOis; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Veres, Patrick; Vandenboer, Trevor C.

    2012-05-01

    This study uses a global chemical transport model to estimate the distribution of isocyanic acid (HNCO). HNCO is toxic, and concentrations exceeding 1 ppbv have been suggested to have negative health effects. Based on fire studies, HNCO emissions were scaled to those of hydrogen cyanide (30%), resulting in yearly total emissions of 1.5 Tg for 2008, from both anthropogenic and biomass burning sources. Loss processes included heterogeneous uptake (pH dependent), dry deposition (like formic acid), and reaction with the OH radical (k = 1 × 10-15 molecule-1 cm3 s-1). Annual mean surface HNCO concentrations were highest over parts of China (maximum of 470 pptv), but episodic fire emissions gave much higher levels, exceeding 4 ppbv in tropical Africa and the Amazon, and exceeding 10 ppbv in Southeast Asia and Siberia. This suggests that large biomass burning events could result in deleterious health effects for populations in these regions. For the tropospheric budget, using the model-calculated pH the HNCO lifetime was 37 days, with the split between dry deposition and heterogeneous loss being 95%:5%. Fixing the heterogeneous loss rate at pH = 7 meant that this process dominated, accounting for ˜70% of the total loss, giving a lifetime of 6 days, and resulting in upper tropospheric concentrations that were essentially zero. However, changing the pH does not notably impact the high concentrations found in biomass burning regions. More observational data is needed to evaluate the model, as well as a better representation of the likely underestimated biofuel emissions, which could mean more populations exposed to elevated HNCO concentrations.

  13. Distributions and regional budgets of aerosols and their precursors simulated with the EMAC chemistry-climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pozzer, A.; de Meij, A.; Pringle, K. J.; Tost, H.; Doering, U. M.; van Aardenne, J.; Lelieveld, J.

    2012-01-01

    The new global anthropogenic emission inventory (EDGAR-CIRCE) of gas and aerosol pollutants has been incorporated in the chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). A relatively high horizontal resolution simulation is performed for the years 2005-2008 to evaluate the capability of the model and the emissions to reproduce observed aerosol concentrations and aerosol optical depth (AOD) values. Model output is compared with observations from different measurement networks (CASTNET, EMEP and EANET) and AODs from remote sensing instruments (MODIS and MISR). A good spatial agreement of the distribution of sulfate and ammonium aerosol is found when compared to observations, while calculated nitrate aerosol concentrations show some discrepancies. The simulated temporal development of the inorganic aerosols is in line with measurements of sulfate and nitrate aerosol, while for ammonium aerosol some deviations from observations occur over the USA, due to the wrong temporal distribution of ammonia gas emissions. The calculated AODs agree well with the satellite observations in most regions, while negative biases are found for the equatorial area and in the dust outflow regions (i.e. Central Atlantic and Northern Indian Ocean), due to an underestimation of biomass burning and aeolian dust emissions, respectively. Aerosols and precursors budgets for five different regions (North America, Europe, East Asia, Central Africa and South America) are calculated. Over East-Asia most of the emitted aerosols (precursors) are also deposited within the region, while in North America and Europe transport plays a larger role. Further, it is shown that a simulation with monthly varying anthropogenic emissions typically improves the temporal correlation by 5-10% compared to one with constant annual emissions.

  14. Homogeneous cosmological models in Yang's gravitation theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fennelly, A. J.; Pavelle, R.

    1979-01-01

    We present a dynamic, spatially homogeneous solution of Yang's pure space gravitational field equations which is non-Einsteinian. The predictions of this cosmological model seem to be at variance with observations.

  15. Improving Vortex Models via Optimal Control Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemati, Maziar; Eldredge, Jeff; Speyer, Jason

    2012-11-01

    Flapping wing kinematics, common in biological flight, can allow for agile flight maneuvers. On the other hand, we currently lack sufficiently accurate low-order models that enable such agility in man-made micro air vehicles. Low-order point vortex models have had reasonable success in predicting the qualitative behavior of the aerodynamic forces resulting from such maneuvers. However, these models tend to over-predict the force response when compared to experiments and high-fidelity simulations, in part because they neglect small excursions of separation from the wing's edges. In the present study, we formulate a constrained minimization problem which allows us to relax the usual edge regularity conditions in favor of empirical determination of vortex strengths. The optimal vortex strengths are determined by minimizing the error with respect to empirical force data, while the vortex positions are constrained to evolve according to the impulse matching model developed in previous work. We consider a flat plate undergoing various canonical maneuvers. The optimized model leads to force predictions remarkably close to the empirical data. Additionally, we compare the optimized and original models in an effort to distill appropriate edge conditions for unsteady maneuvers.

  16. Modeling the Auroral Precipitation Budget Using the SuperMAG SME Index and Substorm Onset Times

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, E. J.; Newell, P. T.; Gjerloev, J. W.

    2012-12-01

    A precipitation model is introduced, which includes substorm cycle information and the SuperMAG SME (generalized AE) index. 22 years of particle precipitation data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) are separated by type (diffuse, monoenergetic, broadband, and ion aurora), magnetic latitude, and magnetic local time. Each bin of data is subjected to multiple linear regression analysis using the SuperMAG SME index (1-minute cadence), the time from the last substorm onset in seconds, and the time to the next substorm onset in seconds. Comparison of the multiple linear regression (MLR) auroral precipitation maps and Polar Ultraviolet Imager images show the MLR auroral precipitation maps capture the brightening and dimming of the nightside aurora but not the morphology of the auroral movement. Thus, this preliminary empirical model with the SuperMAG SME index allows the space weather community access to 25+ years of continuous high-cadence nightside auroral power. Analysis also indicates time dependence in the auroral oval for the dayside diffuse and ion aurora as well as the nightside ion aurora. Some parts of the dayside auroral oval precipitating energy flux depend on the time since the last substorm onset, declining with time. Some parts of the nightside ion auroral oval depend on the time until the next substorm onset, experiencing a decline in precipitating energy flux prior to substorm onset. Ion aurora brightenings, some of which do not correlate with substorm onset, originate in this region of time dependence. The effect of time dependence on the ion auroral brightenings and their correlation to pseudo-breakups is discussed.

  17. Carbon budget of tropical forests in Southeast Asia and the effects of deforestation: approach from a process model and field measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adachi, M.; Ito, A.; Ishida, A.; Kadir, W. R.; Ladpala, P.; Yamagata, Y.

    2010-12-01

    More reliable estimation of carbon (C) stock within forest ecosystems and C emission induced by deforestation is one of the most urgent tasks for model researchers. A process-based terrestrial biogeochemical model (VISIT) was applied to two types of tropical forests (a seasonal dry forest in Thailand and a moist forest in Malaysia) and one agro-forest (an oil palm plantation in Malaysia) to estimate C budget of tropical ecosystems including the impacts of land use conversion in Southeast Asia. Observation and VISIT model simulation indicated that the two types of tropical forest had a comparably high photosynthetic uptakes; gross primary productions were estimated as 32.2-37.6 t C ha-1 y-1. A rain forest had a higher total C stock (plant biomass and soil organic matter, 301.5 t C ha-1) than that in a seasonal dry forest (266.5 t C ha-1). The VISIT model appropriately captured the impacts of disturbance such as deforestation and land use conversions on C budget, and a sensitivity analysis implied that remaining ratios of abandoned debris would be a key parameter determining soil C budget after deforestation events. Although the model tended to overestimate oil palm biomass in comparison with field data, C stock of the oil palm plantation was about half of the forest C at 30 years following the oil palm plantation formation when the remaining rate of residual debris was about 34%. These results indicated that adequate forest management was important for reducing C emission from soil, and C budget at each ecosystem need evaluate over a long-term using model and observations.

  18. Secondary flow structure in a model curved artery: 3D morphology and circulation budget analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulusu, Kartik V.; Plesniak, Michael W.

    2015-11-01

    In this study, we examined the rate of change of circulation within control regions encompassing the large-scale vortical structures associated with secondary flows, i.e. deformed Dean-, Lyne- and Wall-type (D-L-W) vortices at planar cross-sections in a 180° curved artery model (curvature ratio, 1/7). Magnetic resonance velocimetry (MRV) and particle image velocimetry (PIV) experiments were performed independently, under the same physiological inflow conditions (Womersley number, 4.2) and using Newtonian blood-analog fluids. The MRV-technique performed at Stanford University produced phase-averaged, three-dimensional velocity fields. Secondary flow field comparisons of MRV-data to PIV-data at various cross-sectional planes and inflow phases were made. A wavelet-decomposition-based approach was implemented to characterize various secondary flow morphologies. We hypothesize that the persistence and decay of arterial secondary flow vortices is intrinsically related to the influence of the out-of-plane flow, tilting, in-plane convection and diffusion-related factors within the control regions. Evaluation of these factors will elucidate secondary flow structures in arterial hemodynamics. Supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant Number CBET-0828903, and GW Center for Biomimetics and Bioinspired Engineering (COBRE). The MRV data were acquired at Stanford University in collaboration with Christopher Elkins and John Eaton.

  19. What Is Your Budget Saying about Your Library?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobs, Leslie; Strouse, Roger

    2002-01-01

    Discusses budgeting for corporate libraries and how to keep budgets from getting cut. Topics include whether the budget is considered corporate overhead; recovering costs; models for content cost recovery; showing return on library investment; marketing library value to senior management; user needs and satisfaction; and comparing budgets to other…

  20. 42 CFR 441.560 - Service budget requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Service budget requirements. 441.560 Section 441...) § 441.560 Service budget requirements. (a) For the self-directed model with a service budget, a service budget must be developed and approved by the State based on the assessment of functional need and...

  1. 42 CFR 441.560 - Service budget requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Service budget requirements. 441.560 Section 441...) § 441.560 Service budget requirements. (a) For the self-directed model with a service budget, a service budget must be developed and approved by the State based on the assessment of functional need and...

  2. 42 CFR 441.560 - Service budget requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Service budget requirements. 441.560 Section 441...) § 441.560 Service budget requirements. (a) For the self-directed model with a service budget, a service budget must be developed and approved by the State based on the assessment of functional need and...

  3. BLAZE, a novel Fire-Model for the CABLE Land-Surface Model applied to a Re-Assessment of the Australian Continental Carbon Budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nieradzik, L. P.; Haverd, V. E.; Briggs, P.; Meyer, C. P.; Canadell, J.

    2015-12-01

    Fires play a major role in the carbon-cycle and the development of global vegetation, especially on the continent of Australia, where vegetation is prone to frequent fire occurences and where regional composition and stand-age distribution is regulated by fire. Furthermore, the probable changes of fire behaviour under a changing climate are still poorly understood and require further investigation.In this presentation we introduce the fire-model BLAZE (BLAZe induced land-atmosphere flux Estimator), designed for a novel approach to simulate fire-frequencies, fire-intensities, fire related fluxes and the responses in vegetation. Fire frequencies are prescribed using SIMFIRE (Knorr et al., 2014) or GFED3 (e.g. Giglio et al., 2013). Fire-Line-Intensity (FLI) is computed from meteorological information and fuel loads which are state variables within the C-cycle component of CABLE (Community Atmosphere-Biosphere-Land Exchange model). This FLI is used as an input to the tree-demography model POP(Population-Order-Physiology; Haverd et al., 2014). Within POP the fire-mortality depends on FLI and tree height distribution. Intensity-dependent combustion factors (CF) are then generated for and applied to live and litter carbon pools as well as the transfers from live pools to litter caused by fire. Thus, both fire and stand characteristics are taken into account which has a legacy effect on future events. Gross C-CO2 emissions from Australian wild fires are larger than Australian territorial fossil fuel emissions. However, the net effect of fire on the Australian terrestrial carbon budget is unknown. We address this by applying the newly-developed fire module, integrated within the CABLE land surface model, and optimised for the Australian region, to a reassessment of the Australian Terrestrial Carbon Budget.

  4. Modeling the impact of agricultural land use and management on US carbon budgets

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Drewniak, B. A.; Mishra, U.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

    2014-09-22

    Cultivation of the terrestrial land surface can create either a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, depending on land management practices. The Community Land Model (CLM) provides a useful tool to explore how land use and management impact the soil carbon pool at regional to global scales. CLM was recently updated to include representation of managed lands growing maize, soybean, and spring wheat. In this study, CLM-Crop is used to investigate the impacts of various management practices, including fertilizer use and differential rates of crop residue removal, on the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage of croplands in the continental Unitedmore » States over approximately a 170 year period. Results indicate that total US SOC stocks have already lost over 8 Pg C (10%) due to land cultivation practices (e.g., fertilizer application, cultivar choice, and residue removal), compared to a land surface composed of native vegetation (i.e., grasslands). After long periods of cultivation, individual plots growing maize and soybean lost up to 65% of the carbon stored, compared to a grassland site. Crop residue management showed the greatest effect on soil carbon storage, with low and medium residue returns resulting in additional losses of 5% and 3.5%, respectively, in US carbon storage, while plots with high residue returns stored 2% more carbon. Nitrogenous fertilizer can alter the amount of soil carbon stocks significantly. Under current levels of crop residue return, not applying fertilizer resulted in a 5% loss of soil carbon. Our simulations indicate that disturbance through cultivation will always result in a loss of soil carbon, and management practices will have a large influence on the magnitude of SOC loss.« less

  5. Modeling the impact of agricultural land use and management on US carbon budgets

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Drewniak, B. A.; Mishra, U.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

    2015-04-09

    Cultivation of the terrestrial land surface can create either a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, depending on land management practices. The Community Land Model (CLM) provides a useful tool for exploring how land use and management impact the soil carbon pool at regional to global scales. CLM was recently updated to include representation of managed lands growing maize, soybean, and spring wheat. In this study, CLM-Crop is used to investigate the impacts of various management practices, including fertilizer use and differential rates of crop residue removal, on the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage of croplands in the continental Unitedmore » States over approximately a 170-year period. Results indicate that total US SOC stocks have already lost over 8 Pg C (10%) due to land cultivation practices (e.g., fertilizer application, cultivar choice, and residue removal), compared to a land surface composed of native vegetation (i.e., grasslands). After long periods of cultivation, individual subgrids (the equivalent of a field plot) growing maize and soybean lost up to 65% of the carbon stored compared to a grassland site. Crop residue management showed the greatest effect on soil carbon storage, with low and medium residue returns resulting in additional losses of 5 and 3.5%, respectively, in US carbon storage, while plots with high residue returns stored 2% more carbon. Nitrogenous fertilizer can alter the amount of soil carbon stocks significantly. Under current levels of crop residue return, not applying fertilizer resulted in a 5% loss of soil carbon. Our simulations indicate that disturbance through cultivation will always result in a loss of soil carbon, and management practices will have a large influence on the magnitude of SOC loss.« less

  6. Modeling the impact of agricultural land use and management on US carbon budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drewniak, B. A.; Mishra, U.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

    2014-09-01

    Cultivation of the terrestrial land surface can create either a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, depending on land management practices. The Community Land Model (CLM) provides a useful tool to explore how land use and management impact the soil carbon pool at regional to global scales. CLM was recently updated to include representation of managed lands growing maize, soybean, and spring wheat. In this study, CLM-Crop is used to investigate the impacts of various management practices, including fertilizer use and differential rates of crop residue removal, on the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage of croplands in the continental United States over approximately a 170 year period. Results indicate that total US SOC stocks have already lost over 8 Pg C (10%) due to land cultivation practices (e.g., fertilizer application, cultivar choice, and residue removal), compared to a land surface composed of native vegetation (i.e., grasslands). After long periods of cultivation, individual plots growing maize and soybean lost up to 65% of the carbon stored, compared to a grassland site. Crop residue management showed the greatest effect on soil carbon storage, with low and medium residue returns resulting in additional losses of 5% and 3.5%, respectively, in US carbon storage, while plots with high residue returns stored 2% more carbon. Nitrogenous fertilizer can alter the amount of soil carbon stocks significantly. Under current levels of crop residue return, not applying fertilizer resulted in a 5% loss of soil carbon. Our simulations indicate that disturbance through cultivation will always result in a loss of soil carbon, and management practices will have a large influence on the magnitude of SOC loss.

  7. Modeling the impact of agricultural land use and management on US carbon budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drewniak, B. A.; Mishra, U.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

    2015-04-01

    Cultivation of the terrestrial land surface can create either a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, depending on land management practices. The Community Land Model (CLM) provides a useful tool for exploring how land use and management impact the soil carbon pool at regional to global scales. CLM was recently updated to include representation of managed lands growing maize, soybean, and spring wheat. In this study, CLM-Crop is used to investigate the impacts of various management practices, including fertilizer use and differential rates of crop residue removal, on the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage of croplands in the continental United States over approximately a 170-year period. Results indicate that total US SOC stocks have already lost over 8 Pg C (10%) due to land cultivation practices (e.g., fertilizer application, cultivar choice, and residue removal), compared to a land surface composed of native vegetation (i.e., grasslands). After long periods of cultivation, individual subgrids (the equivalent of a field plot) growing maize and soybean lost up to 65% of the carbon stored compared to a grassland site. Crop residue management showed the greatest effect on soil carbon storage, with low and medium residue returns resulting in additional losses of 5 and 3.5%, respectively, in US carbon storage, while plots with high residue returns stored 2% more carbon. Nitrogenous fertilizer can alter the amount of soil carbon stocks significantly. Under current levels of crop residue return, not applying fertilizer resulted in a 5% loss of soil carbon. Our simulations indicate that disturbance through cultivation will always result in a loss of soil carbon, and management practices will have a large influence on the magnitude of SOC loss.

  8. Evaluating the spatiotemporal variations of water budget across China over 1951-2006 using IBIS model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Wei, X.; Peng, C.; Fang, X.; Liu, S.; Zhou, G.; Yu, S.; Ju, W.

    2010-01-01

    The Integrated Biosphere Simulator is used to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of the crucial hydrological variables [run-off and actual evapotranspiration (AET)] of the water balance across China for the period 1951–2006 including a precipitation analysis. Results suggest three major findings. First, simulated run-off captured 85% of the spatial variability and 80% of the temporal variability for 85 hydrological gauges across China. The mean relative errors were within 20% for 66% of the studied stations and within 30% for 86% of the stations. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients indicated that the quantity pattern of run-off was also captured acceptably except for some watersheds in southwestern and northwestern China. The possible reasons for underestimation of run-off in the Tibetan plateau include underestimation of precipitation and uncertainties in other meteorological data due to complex topography, and simplified representations of the soil depth attribute and snow processes in the model. Second, simulated AET matched reasonably with estimated values calculated as the residual of precipitation and run-off for watersheds controlled by the hydrological gauges. Finally, trend analysis based on the Mann–Kendall method indicated that significant increasing and decreasing patterns in precipitation appeared in the northwest part of China and the Yellow River region, respectively. Significant increasing and decreasing trends in AET were detected in the Southwest region and the Yangtze River region, respectively. In addition, the Southwest region, northern China (including the Heilongjiang, Liaohe, and Haihe Basins), and the Yellow River Basin showed significant decreasing trends in run-off, and the Zhemin hydrological region showed a significant increasing trend.

  9. Modeling Developmental Transitions in Adaptive Resonance Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raijmakers, Maartje E. J.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

    2004-01-01

    Neural networks are applied to a theoretical subject in developmental psychology: modeling developmental transitions. Two issues that are involved will be discussed: discontinuities and acquiring qualitatively new knowledge. We will argue that by the appearance of a bifurcation, a neural network can show discontinuities and may acquire…

  10. Microbial community modeling using reliability theory.

    PubMed

    Zilles, Julie L; Rodríguez, Luis F; Bartolerio, Nicholas A; Kent, Angela D

    2016-08-01

    Linking microbial community composition with the corresponding ecosystem functions remains challenging. Because microbial communities can differ in their functional responses, this knowledge gap limits ecosystem assessment, design and management. To develop models that explicitly incorporate microbial populations and guide efforts to characterize their functional differences, we propose a novel approach derived from reliability engineering. This reliability modeling approach is illustrated here using a microbial ecology dataset from denitrifying bioreactors. Reliability modeling is well-suited for analyzing the stability of complex networks composed of many microbial populations. It could also be applied to evaluate the redundancy within a particular biochemical pathway in a microbial community. Reliability modeling allows characterization of the system's resilience and identification of failure-prone functional groups or biochemical steps, which can then be targeted for monitoring or enhancement. The reliability engineering approach provides a new perspective for unraveling the interactions between microbial community diversity, functional redundancy and ecosystem services, as well as practical tools for the design and management of engineered ecosystems. PMID:26882268

  11. Time dependent turbulence modeling and analytical theories of turbulence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rubinstein, R.

    1993-01-01

    By simplifying the direct interaction approximation (DIA) for turbulent shear flow, time dependent formulas are derived for the Reynolds stresses which can be included in two equation models. The Green's function is treated phenomenologically, however, following Smith and Yakhot, we insist on the short and long time limits required by DIA. For small strain rates, perturbative evaluation of the correlation function yields a time dependent theory which includes normal stress effects in simple shear flows. From this standpoint, the phenomenological Launder-Reece-Rodi model is obtained by replacing the Green's function by its long time limit. Eddy damping corrections to short time behavior initiate too quickly in this model; in contrast, the present theory exhibits strong suppression of eddy damping at short times. A time dependent theory for large strain rates is proposed in which large scales are governed by rapid distortion theory while small scales are governed by Kolmogorov inertial range dynamics. At short times and large strain rates, the theory closely matches rapid distortion theory, but at long times it relaxes to an eddy damping model.

  12. Implementing prospective budgeting for Dutch sickness funds.

    PubMed

    Okma, K G; Poelert, J D

    2001-06-01

    Most if not all social policies entail redistribution of scarce public resources from central government to regional and local authorities, to individual citizens or non-government agencies. Governments use a wide variety of instruments to allocate public funds, including direct state provision of subsidies and goods and services, setting budgets at different levels, and regulation of social insurance schemes. Most industrialised countries have developed budget models based on implicit or explicit allocation criteria. Governments usually start by determining global budgets for an entire category of public spending and then specifying the amounts allocated for categories of spending, and next, the budgets for individual agencies. Within such a 'cascading' model, the lower level budgets may be more controversial than the global budgets, as they directly affect the amounts available to individual actors in the system, e.g. hospitals or health insurance agencies. Setting budgets not only shifts decision-making authority but also financial risks from the central government to decentralised actors. The introduction of the prospective budgeting model for the Dutch sickness funds illustrates why determining budgets is not merely a matter of choosing objective allocation criteria, but also, of interaction between state and stakeholders. In the typical Dutch neocorporatist policy arena, where organised interests share responsibilities with government for the shaping and implementation of social policies, the health insurance agencies actively participated in the development of the budget model. PMID:11420806

  13. Qualitative model-based diagnosis using possibility theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joslyn, Cliff

    1994-01-01

    The potential for the use of possibility in the qualitative model-based diagnosis of spacecraft systems is described. The first sections of the paper briefly introduce the Model-Based Diagnostic (MBD) approach to spacecraft fault diagnosis; Qualitative Modeling (QM) methodologies; and the concepts of possibilistic modeling in the context of Generalized Information Theory (GIT). Then the necessary conditions for the applicability of possibilistic methods to qualitative MBD, and a number of potential directions for such an application, are described.

  14. Carbon budget of tropical forests in Southeast Asia and the effects of deforestation: an approach using a process-based model and field measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adachi, M.; Ito, A.; Ishida, A.; Kadir, W. R.; Ladpala, P.; Yamagata, Y.

    2011-03-01

    More reliable estimates of carbon (C) stock within forest ecosystems and C emission induced by deforestation are urgently needed to mitigate the effects of emissions on climate change. A process-based terrestrial biogeochemical model (VISIT) was applied to tropical primary forests of two types (a seasonal dry forest in Thailand and a rainforest in Malaysia) and one agro-forest (an oil palm plantation in Malaysia) to estimate the C budget of tropical ecosystems, including the impacts of land-use conversion, in Southeast Asia. Observations and VISIT model simulations indicated that the primary forests had high photosynthetic uptake: gross primary production was estimated at 31.5-35.5 t C ha-1 yr-1. In the VISIT model simulation, the rainforest had a higher total C stock (plant biomass and soil organic matter, 301.5 t C ha-1) than that in the seasonal dry forest (266.5 t C ha-1) in 2008. The VISIT model appropriately captured the impacts of disturbances such as deforestation and land-use conversions on the C budget. Results of sensitivity analysis implied that the ratio of remaining residual debris was a key parameter determining the soil C budget after deforestation events. The C stock of the oil palm plantation was about 46% of the rainforest's C at 30 yr following initiation of the plantation, when the ratio of remaining residual debris was assumed to be about 33%. These results show that adequate forest management is important for reducing C emission from soil and C budget of each ecosystem must be evaluated over a long term using both the model simulations and observations.

  15. Dust in fusion plasmas: theory and modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Smirnov, R. D.; Pigarov, A. Yu.; Krasheninnikov, S. I.; Mendis, D. A.; Rosenberg, M.; Rudakov, D.; Tanaka, Y.; Rognlien, T. D.; Soboleva, T. K.; Shukla, P. K.; Bray, B. D.; West, W. P.; Roquemore, A. L.; Skinner, C. H.

    2008-09-07

    Dust may have a large impact on ITER-scale plasma experiments including both safety and performance issues. However, the physics of dust in fusion plasmas is very complex and multifaceted. Here, we discuss different aspects of dust dynamics including dust-plasma, and dust-surface interactions. We consider the models of dust charging, heating, evaporation/sublimation, dust collision with material walls, etc., which are suitable for the conditions of fusion plasmas. The physical models of all these processes have been incorporated into the DUST Transport (DUSTT) code. Numerical simulations demonstrate that dust particles are very mobile and accelerate to large velocities due to the ion drag force (cruise speed >100 m/s). Deep penetration of dust particles toward the plasma core is predicted. It is shown that DUSTT is capable of reproducing many features of recent dust-related experiments, but much more work is still needed.

  16. Alluvial and colluvial sediment storage in the Geul River catchment (The Netherlands) — Combining field and modelling data to construct a Late Holocene sediment budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Moor, J. J. W.; Verstraeten, G.

    2008-03-01

    We used a combined approach of a two-dimensional erosion and hillslope sediment delivery model (WATEM/SEDEM) and detailed geomorphological reconstructions to quantify the different components in a sediment budget for the Geul River catchment (southern Netherlands) since the High Middle Ages. Hillslope erosion and colluvium deposition were calculated using the model, while floodplain storage was estimated using field data. Our results show that more than 80% of the total sediment production in the catchment has been stored as colluvium (mostly generated by hillslope erosion), while almost 13% is stored in the floodplain since the High Middle Ages (this situation resembles a capacity-limited system). Model results for the period prior to the High Middle Ages (with a nearly completely forested catchment) show that far less sediment was generated and that most of the sediments were directly transported to the main river valleys or out of the catchment (a supply-limited system). Geomorphological analysis of a large alluvial fan shows the sensitivity of the study area to changes in the percentage of arable land. Our combined field data-modeling study presents an elegant method to calculate a catchment sediment budget for a longer period and is able to identify and quantify the most important sediment storage elements. Furthermore, it provides a valuable tool to calculate a sediment budget while only limited dated fluvial sediment sequences are available.

  17. Applying learning theories and instructional design models for effective instruction.

    PubMed

    Khalil, Mohammed K; Elkhider, Ihsan A

    2016-06-01

    Faculty members in higher education are involved in many instructional design activities without formal training in learning theories and the science of instruction. Learning theories provide the foundation for the selection of instructional strategies and allow for reliable prediction of their effectiveness. To achieve effective learning outcomes, the science of instruction and instructional design models are used to guide the development of instructional design strategies that elicit appropriate cognitive processes. Here, the major learning theories are discussed and selected examples of instructional design models are explained. The main objective of this article is to present the science of learning and instruction as theoretical evidence for the design and delivery of instructional materials. In addition, this article provides a practical framework for implementing those theories in the classroom and laboratory. PMID:27068989

  18. Field theory as a tool to constrain new physics models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maas, Axel

    2015-08-01

    One of the major problems in developing new physics scenarios is that very often the parameters can be adjusted such that in perturbation theory almost all experimental low-energy results can be accommodated. It is therefore desirable to have additional constraints. Field-theoretical considerations can provide such additional constraints on the low-lying spectrum and multiplicities of models. Especially for theories with elementary or composite Higgs particle the Fröhlich-Morchio-Strocchi (FMS) mechanism provides a route to create additional conditions, though showing it to be at work requires genuine non-perturbative calculations. The qualitative features of this procedure are discussed for generic 2-Higgs-doublet models (2HDMs), grand-unified theories (GUTs) and technicolor-type theories.

  19. Group theory and biomolecular conformation: I. Mathematical and computational models

    PubMed Central

    Chirikjian, Gregory S

    2010-01-01

    Biological macromolecules, and the complexes that they form, can be described in a variety of ways ranging from quantum mechanical and atomic chemical models, to coarser grained models of secondary structure and domains, to continuum models. At each of these levels, group theory can be used to describe both geometric symmetries and conformational motion. In this survey, a detailed account is provided of how group theory has been applied across computational structural biology to analyze the conformational shape and motion of macromolecules and complexes. PMID:20827378

  20. Automated Physico-Chemical Cell Model Development through Information Theory

    SciTech Connect

    Peter J. Ortoleva

    2005-11-29

    The objective of this project was to develop predictive models of the chemical responses of microbial cells to variations in their surroundings. The application of these models is optimization of environmental remediation and energy-producing biotechnical processes.The principles on which our project is based are as follows: chemical thermodynamics and kinetics; automation of calibration through information theory; integration of multiplex data (e.g. cDNA microarrays, NMR, proteomics), cell modeling, and bifurcation theory to overcome cellular complexity; and the use of multiplex data and information theory to calibrate and run an incomplete model. In this report we review four papers summarizing key findings and a web-enabled, multiple module workflow we have implemented that consists of a set of interoperable systems biology computational modules.

  1. Item response theory modeling in health outcomes measurement.

    PubMed

    Reeve, Bryce B

    2003-04-01

    There is a great need in health outcomes research to develop instruments that accurately measure a person's health status with minimal response burden. This need for psychometrically sound and clinically meaningful measures calls for better analytical tools beyond the methods available from traditional measurement theory. Applications of item response theory (IRT) modeling have increased considerably because of its utility for instrument development and evaluation, scale scoring, assessment of cultural equivalence, instrument linking and computerized adaptive testing. IRT models the relationship between a person's response to a survey question and their standing on a health construct, such as fatigue or depression. This review will discuss the theory and basics of IRT models and applications of these models to health outcomes measurement. PMID:19807361

  2. New theories of root growth modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landl, Magdalena; Schnepf, Andrea; Vanderborght, Jan; Huber, Katrin; Javaux, Mathieu; Bengough, A. Glyn; Vereecken, Harry

    2016-04-01

    In dynamic root architecture models, root growth is represented by moving root tips whose line trajectory results in the creation of new root segments. Typically, the direction of root growth is calculated as the vector sum of various direction-affecting components. However, in our simulations this did not reproduce experimental observations of root growth in structured soil. We therefore developed a new approach to predict the root growth direction. In this approach we distinguish between, firstly, driving forces for root growth, i.e. the force exerted by the root which points in the direction of the previous root segment and gravitropism, and, secondly, the soil mechanical resistance to root growth or penetration resistance. The latter can be anisotropic, i.e. depending on the direction of growth, which leads to a difference between the direction of the driving force and the direction of the root tip movement. Anisotropy of penetration resistance can be caused either by microscale differences in soil structure or by macroscale features, including macropores. Anisotropy at the microscale is neglected in our model. To allow for this, we include a normally distributed random deflection angle α to the force which points in the direction of the previous root segment with zero mean and a standard deviation σ. The standard deviation σ is scaled, so that the deflection from the original root tip location does not depend on the spatial resolution of the root system model. Similarly to the water flow equation, the direction of the root tip movement corresponds to the water flux vector while the driving forces are related to the water potential gradient. The analogue of the hydraulic conductivity tensor is the root penetrability tensor. It is determined by the inverse of soil penetration resistance and describes the ease with which a root can penetrate the soil. By adapting the three dimensional soil and root water uptake model R-SWMS (Javaux et al., 2008) in this way

  3. Classifying linearly shielded modified gravity models in effective field theory.

    PubMed

    Lombriser, Lucas; Taylor, Andy

    2015-01-23

    We study the model space generated by the time-dependent operator coefficients in the effective field theory of the cosmological background evolution and perturbations of modified gravity and dark energy models. We identify three classes of modified gravity models that reduce to Newtonian gravity on the small scales of linear theory. These general classes contain enough freedom to simultaneously admit a matching of the concordance model background expansion history. In particular, there exists a large model space that mimics the concordance model on all linear quasistatic subhorizon scales as well as in the background evolution. Such models also exist when restricting the theory space to operators introduced in Horndeski scalar-tensor gravity. We emphasize that whereas the partially shielded scenarios might be of interest to study in connection with tensions between large and small scale data, with conventional cosmological probes, the ability to distinguish the fully shielded scenarios from the concordance model on near-horizon scales will remain limited by cosmic variance. Novel tests of the large-scale structure remedying this deficiency and accounting for the full covariant nature of the alternative gravitational theories, however, might yield further insights on gravity in this regime. PMID:25658988

  4. The Use of Modelling for Theory Building in Qualitative Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Briggs, Ann R. J.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to exemplify and enhance the place of modelling as a qualitative process in educational research. Modelling is widely used in quantitative research as a tool for analysis, theory building and prediction. Statistical data lend themselves to graphical representation of values, interrelationships and operational…

  5. Minimal Pati-Salam model from string theory unification

    SciTech Connect

    Dent, James B.; Kephart, Thomas W.

    2008-06-01

    We provide what we believe is the minimal three family N=1 SUSY and conformal Pati-Salam model from type IIB superstring theory. This Z{sub 3} orbifolded AdS x S{sup 5} model has long lived protons and has potential phenomenological consequences for LHC (Large Hadron Collider)

  6. Goodness-of-Fit Assessment of Item Response Theory Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto

    2013-01-01

    The article provides an overview of goodness-of-fit assessment methods for item response theory (IRT) models. It is now possible to obtain accurate "p"-values of the overall fit of the model if bivariate information statistics are used. Several alternative approaches are described. As the validity of inferences drawn on the fitted model…

  7. Theory and Practice: An Integrative Model Linking Class and Field

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lesser, Joan Granucci; Cooper, Marlene

    2006-01-01

    Social work has evolved over the years taking on the challenges of the times. The profession now espouses a breadth of theoretical approaches and treatment modalities. We have developed a model to help graduate social work students master the skill of integrating theory and social work practice. The Integrative Model has five components: (l) The…

  8. The Mapping Model: A Cognitive Theory of Quantitative Estimation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    von Helversen, Bettina; Rieskamp, Jorg

    2008-01-01

    How do people make quantitative estimations, such as estimating a car's selling price? Traditionally, linear-regression-type models have been used to answer this question. These models assume that people weight and integrate all information available to estimate a criterion. The authors propose an alternative cognitive theory for quantitative…

  9. Chiral field theories as models for hadron substructure

    SciTech Connect

    Kahana, S.H.

    1987-03-01

    A model for the nucleon as soliton of quarks interacting with classical meson fields is described. The theory, based on the linear sigma model, is renormalizable and capable of including sea quarks straightforwardly. Application to nuclear matter is made in a Wigner-Seitz approximation.

  10. Geology on a Sand Budget

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kane, Jacqueline

    2004-01-01

    Earth science teachers know how frustrating it can be to spend hundreds of dollars on three-dimensional (3-D) models of Earth's geologic features, to use the models for only a few class periods. To avoid emptying an already limited science budget, the author states that teachers can use a simple alternative to the expensive 3-D models--sand. She…

  11. FY 1996 Congressional budget request: Budget highlights

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1995-02-01

    The FY 1996 budget presentation is organized by the Department`s major business lines. An accompanying chart displays the request for new budget authority. The report compares the budget request for FY 1996 with the appropriated FY 1995 funding levels displayed on a comparable basis. The FY 1996 budget represents the first year of a five year plan in which the Department will reduce its spending by $15.8 billion in budget authority and by $14.1 billion in outlays. FY 1996 is a transition year as the Department embarks on its multiyear effort to do more with less. The Budget Highlights are presented by business line; however, the fifth business line, Economic Productivity, which is described in the Policy Overview section, cuts across multiple organizational missions, funding levels and activities and is therefore included in the discussion of the other four business lines.

  12. Nanofluid Drop Evaporation: Experiment, Theory, and Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerken, William James

    Nanofluids, stable colloidal suspensions of nanoparticles in a base fluid, have potential applications in the heat transfer, combustion and propulsion, manufacturing, and medical fields. Experiments were conducted to determine the evaporation rate of room temperature, millimeter-sized pendant drops of ethanol laden with varying amounts (0-3% by weight) of 40-60 nm aluminum nanoparticles (nAl). Time-resolved high-resolution drop images were collected for the determination of early-time evaporation rate (D2/D 02 > 0.75), shown to exhibit D-square law behavior, and surface tension. Results show an asymptotic decrease in pendant drop evaporation rate with increasing nAl loading. The evaporation rate decreases by approximately 15% at around 1% to 3% nAl loading relative to the evaporation rate of pure ethanol. Surface tension was observed to be unaffected by nAl loading up to 3% by weight. A model was developed to describe the evaporation of the nanofluid pendant drops based on D-square law analysis for the gas domain and a description of the reduction in liquid fraction available for evaporation due to nanoparticle agglomerate packing near the evaporating drop surface. Model predictions are in relatively good agreement with experiment, within a few percent of measured nanofluid pendant drop evaporation rate. The evaporation of pinned nanofluid sessile drops was also considered via modeling. It was found that the same mechanism for nanofluid evaporation rate reduction used to explain pendant drops could be used for sessile drops. That mechanism is a reduction in evaporation rate due to a reduction in available ethanol for evaporation at the drop surface caused by the packing of nanoparticle agglomerates near the drop surface. Comparisons of the present modeling predictions with sessile drop evaporation rate measurements reported for nAl/ethanol nanofluids by Sefiane and Bennacer [11] are in fairly good agreement. Portions of this abstract previously appeared as: W. J

  13. A class of effective field theory models of cosmic acceleration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bloomfield, Jolyon K.; Flanagan, Éanna É.

    2012-10-01

    We explore a class of effective field theory models of cosmic acceleration involving a metric and a single scalar field. These models can be obtained by starting with a set of ultralight pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone bosons whose couplings to matter satisfy the weak equivalence principle, assuming that one boson is lighter than all the others, and integrating out the heavier fields. The result is a quintessence model with matter coupling, together with a series of correction terms in the action in a covariant derivative expansion, with specific scalings for the coefficients. After eliminating higher derivative terms and exploiting the field redefinition freedom, we show that the resulting theory contains nine independent free functions of the scalar field when truncated at four derivatives. This is in contrast to the four free functions found in similar theories of single-field inflation, where matter is not present. We discuss several different representations of the theory that can be obtained using the field redefinition freedom. For perturbations to the quintessence field today on subhorizon lengthscales larger than the Compton wavelength of the heavy fields, the theory is weakly coupled and natural in the sense of t'Hooft. The theory admits a regime where the perturbations become modestly nonlinear, but very strong nonlinearities lie outside its domain of validity.

  14. Integrated Modeling Program, Applied Chemical Theory (IMPACT)

    PubMed Central

    BANKS, JAY L.; BEARD, HEGE S.; CAO, YIXIANG; CHO, ART E.; DAMM, WOLFGANG; FARID, RAMY; FELTS, ANTHONY K.; HALGREN, THOMAS A.; MAINZ, DANIEL T.; MAPLE, JON R.; MURPHY, ROBERT; PHILIPP, DEAN M.; REPASKY, MATTHEW P.; ZHANG, LINDA Y.; BERNE, BRUCE J.; FRIESNER, RICHARD A.; GALLICCHIO, EMILIO; LEVY, RONALD M.

    2009-01-01

    We provide an overview of the IMPACT molecular mechanics program with an emphasis on recent developments and a description of its current functionality. With respect to core molecular mechanics technologies we include a status report for the fixed charge and polarizable force fields that can be used with the program and illustrate how the force fields, when used together with new atom typing and parameter assignment modules, have greatly expanded the coverage of organic compounds and medicinally relevant ligands. As we discuss in this review, explicit solvent simulations have been used to guide our design of implicit solvent models based on the generalized Born framework and a novel nonpolar estimator that have recently been incorporated into the program. With IMPACT it is possible to use several different advanced conformational sampling algorithms based on combining features of molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations. The program includes two specialized molecular mechanics modules: Glide, a high-throughput docking program, and QSite, a mixed quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics module. These modules employ the IMPACT infrastructure as a starting point for the construction of the protein model and assignment of molecular mechanics parameters, but have then been developed to meet specialized objectives with respect to sampling and the energy function. PMID:16211539

  15. Development of response models for the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) sensors. Part 1: Dynamic models and computer simulations for the ERBE nonscanner, scanner and solar monitor sensors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halyo, Nesim; Choi, Sang H.; Chrisman, Dan A., Jr.; Samms, Richard W.

    1987-01-01

    Dynamic models and computer simulations were developed for the radiometric sensors utilized in the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). The models were developed to understand performance, improve measurement accuracy by updating model parameters and provide the constants needed for the count conversion algorithms. Model simulations were compared with the sensor's actual responses demonstrated in the ground and inflight calibrations. The models consider thermal and radiative exchange effects, surface specularity, spectral dependence of a filter, radiative interactions among an enclosure's nodes, partial specular and diffuse enclosure surface characteristics and steady-state and transient sensor responses. Relatively few sensor nodes were chosen for the models since there is an accuracy tradeoff between increasing the number of nodes and approximating parameters such as the sensor's size, material properties, geometry, and enclosure surface characteristics. Given that the temperature gradients within a node and between nodes are small enough, approximating with only a few nodes does not jeopardize the accuracy required to perform the parameter estimates and error analyses.

  16. A Brinkmanship Game Theory Model of Terrorism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melese, Francois

    This study reveals conditions under which a world leader might credibly issue a brinkmanship threat of preemptive action to deter sovereign states or transnational terrorist organizations from acquiring weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The model consists of two players: the United Nations (UN) “Principal,” and a terrorist organization “Agent.” The challenge in issuing a brinkmanship threat is that it needs to be sufficiently unpleasant to deter terrorists from acquiring WMD, while not being so repugnant to those that must carry it out that they would refuse to do so. Two “credibility constraints” are derived. The first relates to the unknown terrorist type (Hard or Soft), and the second to acceptable risks (“blowback”) to the World community. Graphing the incentive-compatible Nash equilibrium solutions reveals when a brinkmanship threat is credible, and when it is not - either too weak to be effective, or unacceptably dangerous to the World community.

  17. Putting "Organizations" into an Organization Theory Course: A Hybrid CAO Model for Teaching Organization Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hannah, David R.; Venkatachary, Ranga

    2010-01-01

    In this article, the authors present a retrospective analysis of an instructor's multiyear redesign of a course on organization theory into what is called a hybrid Classroom-as-Organization model. It is suggested that this new course design served to apprentice students to function in quasi-real organizational structures. The authors further argue…

  18. Integrating Developmental Theory and Methodology: Using Derivatives to Articulate Change Theories, Models, and Inferences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deboeck, Pascal R.; Nicholson, Jody; Kouros, Chrystyna; Little, Todd D.; Garber, Judy

    2015-01-01

    Matching theories about growth, development, and change to appropriate statistical models can present a challenge, which can result in misuse, misinterpretation, and underutilization of different analytical approaches. We discuss the use of "derivatives": the change of a construct with respect to the change in another construct.…

  19. A novel Fire-Model for the CABLE Land Surface Model applied to a Re-assessment of the Australian Continental Carbon Budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nieradzik, L. P.; Haverd, V. E.; Briggs, P.; Meyer, C. P.; Canadell, J.

    2014-12-01

    Fires play a major role in the carbon-cycle and the development of global vegetation, especially on the continent of Australia, where vegetation is prone to frequent fire occurences and where regional composition and stand-age distribution is regulated by fire. Furthermore, the probable changes of fire behaviour under a changing climate are still poorly understood and require further investigation.In this presentation we introduce a novel approach to simulate fire-frequencies, fire-intensities and the responses in vegetation. Fire frequencies are prescribed using SIMFIRE (Knorr et al., 2014) or GFED3 (e.g. Giglio et al., 2013). Fire-Line-Intensity (FLI) is computed from meteorological information and fuel loads which are state variables within the C-cycle component of CABLE. This FLI is used as an input to the tree-demography model POP (Population-Order-Physiology; Haverd et al., 2014). Within POP the fire-mortality depends on FLI and tree height distribution.Intensity-dependent combustion factors (CF) are then generated for and applied to live and litter carbon pools as well as the transfers from live pools to litter caused by fire. Thus, both fire and stand characteristics are taken into account which has a legacy effect on future events. Gross C-CO2 emissions from Australian wild fires are larger than Australian territorial fossil fuel emissions. However, the net effect of fire on the Australian terrestrial carbon budget is unknown. We address this by applying the newly-developed fire module, integrated within the CABLE land surface model, and optimised for the Australian region, to a reassessment of the Australian Terrestrial Carbon Budget.

  20. Population changes: contemporary models and theories.

    PubMed

    Sauvy, A

    1981-01-01

    In many developing countries rapid population growth has promoted a renewed interest in the study of the effect of population growth on economic development. This research takes either the macroeconomic viewpoint, where the nation is the framework, or the microeconomic perspective, where the family is the framework. For expository purposes, the macroeconomic viewpoint is assumed, and an example of such an investment is presented. Attention is directed to the following: a simplified model--housing; the lessons learned from experience (primitive populations, Spain in the 17th and 18th centuries, comparing development in Spain and Italy, 19th century Western Europe, and underdeveloped countries); the positive factors of population growth; and the concept of the optimal rate of growth. Housing is the typical investment that an individual makes. Hence, the housing per person (roughly 1/3 of the necessary amount of housing per family) is taken as a unit, and the calculations are made using averages. The conclusion is that growth is expensive. A population decrease might be advantageous, for this decrease would enable the entire population to benefit from past capital accumulation. It is also believed, "a priori," that population growth is more expensive for a developed than for a developing country. This belief may be attributable to the fact that the capital per person tends to be high in the developed countries. Any further increase in the population requires additional capital investments, driving this ratio even higher. Yet, investment is not the only factor inhibiting economic development. The literature describes factors regarding population growth, yet this writer prefers to emphasize 2 other factors that have been the subject of less study: a growing population's ease of adaptation and the human factor--behavior. A growing population adapts better to new conditions than does a stationary or declining population, and contrary to "a priori" belief, a growing

  1. Summary of papers presented in the Theory and Modelling session

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin-Liu, Y. R.; Westerhof, E.

    2012-09-01

    A total of 14 contributions were presented in the Theory and Modelling sessions at EC-17. One Theory and Modelling paper was included in the ITER ECRH and ECE sessions each. Three papers were in the area of nonlinear physics discussing parametric processes accompanying ECRH. Eight papers were based on the quasi-linear theory of wave heating and current drive. Three of these addressed the application of ECCD for NTM stabilization. Two papers considered scattering of EC waves by edge density fluctuations and related phenomena. In this summary, we briefly describe the highlights of these contributions. Finally, the three papers concerning modelling of various aspects of ECE are reported in the ECE session.

  2. Reconstructing constructivism: causal models, Bayesian learning mechanisms, and the theory theory.

    PubMed

    Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M

    2012-11-01

    We propose a new version of the "theory theory" grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework theories. We outline the new theoretical ideas, explain the computational framework in an intuitive and nontechnical way, and review an extensive but relatively recent body of empirical results that supports these ideas. These include new studies of the mechanisms of learning. Children infer causal structure from statistical information, through their own actions on the world and through observations of the actions of others. Studies demonstrate these learning mechanisms in children from 16 months to 4 years old and include research on causal statistical learning, informal experimentation through play, and imitation and informal pedagogy. They also include studies of the variability and progressive character of intuitive theory change, particularly theory of mind. These studies investigate both the physical and the psychological and social domains. We conclude with suggestions for further collaborative projects between developmental and computational cognitive scientists. PMID:22582739

  3. Theory of Time beyond the standard model

    SciTech Connect

    Poliakov, Eugene S.

    2008-05-29

    A frame of non-uniform time is discussed. A concept of 'flow of time' is presented. The principle of time relativity in analogy with Galilean principle of relativity is set. Equivalence principle is set to state that the outcome of non-uniform time in an inertial frame of reference is equivalent to the outcome of a fictitious gravity force external to the frame of reference. Thus it is flow of time that causes gravity rather than mass. The latter is compared to experimental data achieving precision of up to 0.0003%. It is shown that the law of energy conservation is inapplicable to the frames of non-uniform time. A theoretical model of a physical entity (point mass, photon) travelling in the field of non-uniform time is considered. A generalized law that allows the flow of time to replace classical energy conservation is introduced on the basis of the experiment of Pound and Rebka. It is shown that linear dependence of flow of time on spatial coordinate conforms the inverse square law of universal gravitation and Keplerian mechanics. Momentum is shown to still be conserved.

  4. Estimating evapotranspiration over agricultural landscapes with thermal infrared data: comparison of two approaches using Simple Energy Budget and SVAT modeling.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bigeard, G.; Coudert, B.; Jarlan, L.; Er-Raki, S.; Khabba, S.

    2012-04-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) monitoring presents wide range of applications from agriculture and water resources management to meteorology. Several approaches have been developed to retrieve ET based on a joint use of remote sensing data and land surface modeling, in particular with a SVAT (Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfers) model or a SEB (Surface Energy Budget) model. The objective of our work is to estimate spatialized ET fluxes from Thermal Infra-Red (TIR) imagery, focusing on simulating fluxes at low spatial resolution with 2 methodologies: 1. Simulating with a SEB model directly at low resolution (landscape scale: 4km) with TIR forcing. 2. Aggregating high resolution (agricultural field scale) estimates from a SVAT model constrained by TIR data and based on a high spatial resolution database (landcover, LAI, vegetation height, meteorological forcing and irrigation). In a first part we sum up previous results about in-situ capabilities of a SEB model (TSEB, Norman & al. 1995) versus a SVAT model (SEtHyS, described by Coudert & al. 2006) over crops. TSEB is driven directly with TIR forcing and does not consider soil water transfers. SEtHyS doesn't rely on TIR data availability but it has more parameters and requires more inputs for initialization. Simulations of both models were compared to in-situ Eddy-Correlation (EC) fluxes, with data from 3 sites in southern France and Morocco, covering several kinds of cultures, various vegetative states and various meteorological conditions. A sensitivity analysis on inputs was used to better characterize their capabilities and behaviors, and quantify error ranges induced by spatialization. Globally, models provide estimations of latent heat flux (LE) with RMSD of around 55W/m2 for TSEB and 45W/m2 for SEtHyS. Energy fluxes partition in TSEB was shown to be relatively less sensitive to some inputs when using only a single set of parameters. However it has lower performances on rising vegetation and stressed vegetation

  5. Stratigraphy of two conjugate margins (Gulf of Lion and West Sardinia): modeling of vertical movements and sediment budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leroux, Estelle; Gorini, Christian; Aslanian, Daniel; Rabineau, Marina; Blanpied, Christian; Rubino, Jean-Loup; Robin, Cécile; Granjeon, Didier; Taillepierre, Rachel

    2016-04-01

    The post-rift (~20-0 Ma) vertical movements of the Provence Basin (West Mediterranean) are quantified on its both conjugate (the Gulf of Lion and the West Sardinia) margins. This work is based on the stratigraphic study of sedimentary markers using a large 3D grid of seismic data, correlations with existing drillings and refraction data. The post-rift subsidence is measured by the direct use of sedimentary geometries analysed in 3D [Gorini et al., 2015; Rabineau et al., 2014] and validated by numerical stratigraphic modelling. Three domains were found: on the platform (1) and slope (2), the subsidence takes the form of a seaward tilting with different amplitudes, whereas the deep basin (3) subsides purely vertically [Leroux et al., 2015a]. These domains correspond to the deeper crustal domains respectively highlighted by wide angle seismic data. The continental crust (1) and the thinned continental crust (2) are tilted, whereas the intermediate crust, identified as lower continental exhumed crust [Moulin et al., 2015, Afhilado et al., 2015] (3) sagged. The post-break-up subsidence re-uses the initial hinge lines of the rifting phase. This striking correlation between surface geologic processes and deep earth dynamic processes emphasizes that the sedimentary record and sedimentary markers is a window into deep geodynamic processes and dynamic topography. Pliocene-Pleistocene seismic markers enabled high resolution quantification of sediment budgets over the past 6 Myr [Leroux et al., in press]. Sediment budget history is here completed on the Miocene interval. Thus, the controlling factors (climate, tectonics and eustasy) are discussed. Afilhado, A., Moulin, M., Aslanian, D., Schnürle, P., Klingelhoefer, F., Nouzé, H., Rabineau, M., Leroux, E. & Beslier, M.-O. (2015). Deep crustal structure across a young 1 passive margin from wide-angle and reflection seismic data (The SARDINIA Experiment) - II. Sardinia's margin. Bull. Soc. géol. France, 186, ILP Spec. issue, 4

  6. Supersymmetry and String Theory: Beyond the Standard Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dine, Michael

    2007-01-01

    The past decade has witnessed dramatic developments in the field of theoretical physics. This book is a comprehensive introduction to these recent developments. It contains a review of the Standard Model, covering non-perturbative topics, and a discussion of grand unified theories and magnetic monopoles. It introduces the basics of supersymmetry and its phenomenology, and includes dynamics, dynamical supersymmetry breaking, and electric-magnetic duality. The book then covers general relativity and the big bang theory, and the basic issues in inflationary cosmologies before discussing the spectra of known string theories and the features of their interactions. The book also includes brief introductions to technicolor, large extra dimensions, and the Randall-Sundrum theory of warped spaces. This will be of great interest to graduates and researchers in the fields of particle theory, string theory, astrophysics and cosmology. The book contains several problems, and password protected solutions will be available to lecturers at www.cambridge.org/9780521858410. Provides reader with tools to confront limitations of the Standard Model Includes several exercises and problems Solutions are available to lecturers at www.cambridge.org/9780521858410

  7. Consistent constraints on the Standard Model Effective Field Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berthier, Laure; Trott, Michael

    2016-02-01

    We develop the global constraint picture in the (linear) effective field theory generalisation of the Standard Model, incorporating data from detectors that operated at PEP, PETRA, TRISTAN, SpS, Tevatron, SLAC, LEPI and LEP II, as well as low energy precision data. We fit one hundred and three observables. We develop a theory error metric for this effective field theory, which is required when constraints on parameters at leading order in the power counting are to be pushed to the percent level, or beyond, unless the cut off scale is assumed to be large, Λ ≳ 3 TeV. We more consistently incorporate theoretical errors in this work, avoiding this assumption, and as a direct consequence bounds on some leading parameters are relaxed. We show how an S, T analysis is modified by the theory errors we include as an illustrative example.

  8. Theory, modeling and simulation of superconducting qubits

    SciTech Connect

    Berman, Gennady P; Kamenev, Dmitry I; Chumak, Alexander; Kinion, Carin; Tsifrinovich, Vladimir

    2011-01-13

    We analyze the dynamics of a qubit-resonator system coupled with a thermal bath and external electromagnetic fields. Using the evolution equations for the set of Heisenberg operators that describe the whole system, we derive an expression for the resonator field, that includes the resonator-drive, the resonator-bath, and resonator-qubit interactions. The renormalization of the resonator frequency, caused by the qubit-resonator interaction, is accounted for. Using the solutions for the resonator field, we derive the equation that describes the qubit dynamics. The dependence of the qubit evolution during the measurement time on the fidelity of a single-shot measurement is studied. The relation between the fidelity and measurement time is shown explicitly. We proposed a novel adiabatic method for the phase qubit measurement. The method utilizes a low-frequency, quasi-classical resonator inductively coupled to the qubit. The resonator modulates the qubit energy, and the back reaction of the qubit causes a shift in the phase of the resonator. The resonator phase shift can be used to determine the qubit state. We have simulated this measurement taking into the account the energy levels outside the phase qubit manifold. We have shown that, for qubit frequencies in the range of 8-12GHZ, a resonator frequency of 500 MHz and a measurement time of 100 ns, the phase difference between the two qubit states is greater than 0.2 rad. This phase difference exceeds the measurement uncertainty, and can be detected using a classical phase-meter. A fidelity of 0.9999 can be achieved for a relaxation time of 0.5 ms. We also model and simulate a microstrip-SQUID amplifier of frequency about 500 MHz, which could be used to amplify the resonator oscillations in the phase qubit adiabatic measurement. The voltage gain and the amplifier noise temperature are calculated. We simulate the preparation of a generalized Bell state and compute the relaxation times required for achieving high

  9. Numerical tests of nucleation theories for the Ising models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryu, Seunghwa; Cai, Wei

    2010-07-01

    The classical nucleation theory (CNT) is tested systematically by computer simulations of the two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) Ising models with a Glauber-type spin flip dynamics. While previous studies suggested potential problems with CNT, our numerical results show that the fundamental assumption of CNT is correct. In particular, the Becker-Döring theory accurately predicts the nucleation rate if the correct droplet free energy function is provided as input. This validates the coarse graining of the system into a one dimensional Markov chain with the largest droplet size as the reaction coordinate. Furthermore, in the 2D Ising model, the droplet free energy predicted by CNT matches numerical results very well, after a logarithmic correction term from Langer’s field theory and a constant correction term are added. But significant discrepancies are found between the numerical results and existing theories on the magnitude of the logarithmic correction term in the 3D Ising model. Our analysis underscores the importance of correctly accounting for the temperature dependence of surface energy when comparing numerical results and nucleation theories.

  10. Modelling machine ensembles with discrete event dynamical system theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hunter, Dan

    1990-01-01

    Discrete Event Dynamical System (DEDS) theory can be utilized as a control strategy for future complex machine ensembles that will be required for in-space construction. The control strategy involves orchestrating a set of interactive submachines to perform a set of tasks for a given set of constraints such as minimum time, minimum energy, or maximum machine utilization. Machine ensembles can be hierarchically modeled as a global model that combines the operations of the individual submachines. These submachines are represented in the global model as local models. Local models, from the perspective of DEDS theory , are described by the following: a set of system and transition states, an event alphabet that portrays actions that takes a submachine from one state to another, an initial system state, a partial function that maps the current state and event alphabet to the next state, and the time required for the event to occur. Each submachine in the machine ensemble is presented by a unique local model. The global model combines the local models such that the local models can operate in parallel under the additional logistic and physical constraints due to submachine interactions. The global model is constructed from the states, events, event functions, and timing requirements of the local models. Supervisory control can be implemented in the global model by various methods such as task scheduling (open-loop control) or implementing a feedback DEDS controller (closed-loop control).

  11. Coarse-grained theory of a realistic tetrahedral liquid model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Procaccia, I.; Regev, I.

    2012-02-01

    Tetrahedral liquids such as water and silica-melt show unusual thermodynamic behavior such as a density maximum and an increase in specific heat when cooled to low temperatures. Previous work had shown that Monte Carlo and mean-field solutions of a lattice model can exhibit these anomalous properties with or without a phase transition, depending on the values of the different terms in the Hamiltonian. Here we use a somewhat different approach, where we start from a very popular empirical model of tetrahedral liquids —the Stillinger-Weber model— and construct a coarse-grained theory which directly quantifies the local structure of the liquid as a function of volume and temperature. We compare the theory to molecular-dynamics simulations and show that the theory can rationalize the simulation results and the anomalous behavior.

  12. Integrating Social Capital Theory, Social Cognitive Theory, and the Technology Acceptance Model to Explore a Behavioral Model of Telehealth Systems

    PubMed Central

    Tsai, Chung-Hung

    2014-01-01

    Telehealth has become an increasingly applied solution to delivering health care to rural and underserved areas by remote health care professionals. This study integrated social capital theory, social cognitive theory, and the technology acceptance model (TAM) to develop a comprehensive behavioral model for analyzing the relationships among social capital factors (social capital theory), technological factors (TAM), and system self-efficacy (social cognitive theory) in telehealth. The proposed framework was validated with 365 respondents from Nantou County, located in Central Taiwan. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to assess the causal relationships that were hypothesized in the proposed model. The finding indicates that elderly residents generally reported positive perceptions toward the telehealth system. Generally, the findings show that social capital factors (social trust, institutional trust, and social participation) significantly positively affect the technological factors (perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness respectively), which influenced usage intention. This study also confirmed that system self-efficacy was the salient antecedent of perceived ease of use. In addition, regarding the samples, the proposed model fitted considerably well. The proposed integrative psychosocial-technological model may serve as a theoretical basis for future research and can also offer empirical foresight to practitioners and researchers in the health departments of governments, hospitals, and rural communities. PMID:24810577

  13. Excellence in Physics Education Award: Modeling Theory for Physics Instruction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hestenes, David

    2014-03-01

    All humans create mental models to plan and guide their interactions with the physical world. Science has greatly refined and extended this ability by creating and validating formal scientific models of physical things and processes. Research in physics education has found that mental models created from everyday experience are largely incompatible with scientific models. This suggests that the fundamental problem in learning and understanding science is coordinating mental models with scientific models. Modeling Theory has drawn on resources of cognitive science to work out extensive implications of this suggestion and guide development of an approach to science pedagogy and curriculum design called Modeling Instruction. Modeling Instruction has been widely applied to high school physics and, more recently, to chemistry and biology, with noteworthy results.

  14. A Study of the Stable Boundary Layer Based on a Single-Column K-Theory Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sorbjan, Zbigniew

    2012-01-01

    We document numerical experiments with a single-column, high-resolution model of the stable boundary layer. The model resolves the logarithmic layer, and does not require inverting the Monin-Obukhov similarity functions in order to calculate the surface fluxes. The turbulence closure is based on the K-theory approach, with a new form of stability functions of the Richardson number, evaluated by using the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) and the Cooperative Atmosphere-Surface Exchange Study (CASES-99) data. A comparison with two, high-resolution large-eddy simulation models shows very good agreement. The reported numerical experiments test the effects of shear, surface cooling, the Coriolis parameter, subsidence, and baroclinicity. The time evolution of the drag coefficient, the heat-transfer coefficient, and the cross-isobar angle is also evaluated.

  15. Beyond Zero Based Budgeting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ogden, Daniel M., Jr.

    1978-01-01

    Suggests that the most practical budgeting system for most managers is a formalized combination of incremental and zero-based analysis because little can be learned about most programs from an annual zero-based budget. (Author/IRT)

  16. F-theory duals of singular heterotic K3 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lüdeling, Christoph; Ruehle, Fabian

    2015-01-01

    We study F-theory duals of singular heterotic K3 models that correspond to Abelian toroidal orbifolds T4/ZN . While our focus is on the standard embedding, we also comment on models with Wilson lines and more general gauge embeddings. In the process of constructing the duals, we work out a Weierstrass description of the heterotic toroidal orbifold models, which exhibit singularities of Kodaira type I0* , IV * , II I * , and II * . This construction unveils properties like the instanton number per fixed point and a correlation between the orbifold order and the multiplicities in the Dynkin diagram. The results from the Weierstrass description are then used to restrict the complex structure of the F-theory Calabi-Yau threefold such that the gauge group and the matter spectrum of the heterotic theories are reproduced. We also comment on previous approaches that have been employed to construct the duality and point out the differences and limitations in our case. Our results show explicitly how the various orbifold models are connected and described in F-theory.

  17. A Model of Statistics Performance Based on Achievement Goal Theory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bandalos, Deborah L.; Finney, Sara J.; Geske, Jenenne A.

    2003-01-01

    Tests a model of statistics performance based on achievement goal theory. Both learning and performance goals affected achievement indirectly through study strategies, self-efficacy, and test anxiety. Implications of these findings for teaching and learning statistics are discussed. (Contains 47 references, 3 tables, 3 figures, and 1 appendix.)…

  18. A Proposed Model of Jazz Theory Knowledge Acquisition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ciorba, Charles R.; Russell, Brian E.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to test a hypothesized model that proposes a causal relationship between motivation and academic achievement on the acquisition of jazz theory knowledge. A reliability analysis of the latent variables ranged from 0.92 to 0.94. Confirmatory factor analyses of the motivation (standardized root mean square residual…

  19. The Decision/Adoption Model as a Heuristic Program Theory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tedrick, William E.

    The emerging concept of program theory and its function in program evaluation practice is the central focus of this paper. It appears that the traditional decision/adoption model, when considered in conjunction with the institutionalized beliefs, values, and methodological procedures of the state Cooperative Extension Services, meets the criteria…

  20. Medical Specialty Decision Model: Utilizing Social Cognitive Career Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gibson, Denise D.; Borges, Nicole J.

    2004-01-01

    Objectives: The purpose of this study was to develop a working model to explain medical specialty decision-making. Using Social Cognitive Career Theory, we examined personality, medical specialty preferences, job satisfaction, and expectations about specialty choice to create a conceptual framework to guide specialty choice decision-making.…

  1. Application of Health Promotion Theories and Models for Environmental Health

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Edith A.; Baldwin, Grant T.; Israel, Barbara; Salinas, Maria A.

    2004-01-01

    The field of environmental health promotion gained new prominence in recent years as awareness of physical environmental stressors and exposures increased in communities across the country and the world. Although many theories and conceptual models are used routinely to guide health promotion and health education interventions, they are rarely…

  2. Using SAS PROC MCMC for Item Response Theory Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ames, Allison J.; Samonte, Kelli

    2015-01-01

    Interest in using Bayesian methods for estimating item response theory models has grown at a remarkable rate in recent years. This attentiveness to Bayesian estimation has also inspired a growth in available software such as WinBUGS, R packages, BMIRT, MPLUS, and SAS PROC MCMC. This article intends to provide an accessible overview of Bayesian…

  3. An NCME Instructional Module on Polytomous Item Response Theory Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Penfield, Randall David

    2014-01-01

    A polytomous item is one for which the responses are scored according to three or more categories. Given the increasing use of polytomous items in assessment practices, item response theory (IRT) models specialized for polytomous items are becoming increasingly common. The purpose of this ITEMS module is to provide an accessible overview of…

  4. Item Response Theory Models for Performance Decline during Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jin, Kuan-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung

    2014-01-01

    Sometimes, test-takers may not be able to attempt all items to the best of their ability (with full effort) due to personal factors (e.g., low motivation) or testing conditions (e.g., time limit), resulting in poor performances on certain items, especially those located toward the end of a test. Standard item response theory (IRT) models fail to…

  5. Conceptualizations of Creativity: Comparing Theories and Models of Giftedness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Angie L.

    2012-01-01

    This article reviews seven different theories of giftedness that include creativity as a component, comparing and contrasting how each one conceptualizes creativity as a part of giftedness. The functions of creativity vary across the models, suggesting that while the field of gifted education often cites the importance of creativity, the…

  6. Multilevel Higher-Order Item Response Theory Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huang, Hung-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung

    2014-01-01

    In the social sciences, latent traits often have a hierarchical structure, and data can be sampled from multiple levels. Both hierarchical latent traits and multilevel data can occur simultaneously. In this study, we developed a general class of item response theory models to accommodate both hierarchical latent traits and multilevel data. The…

  7. A Model to Demonstrate the Place Theory of Hearing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ganesh, Gnanasenthil; Srinivasan, Venkata Subramanian; Krishnamurthi, Sarayu

    2016-01-01

    In this brief article, the authors discuss Georg von Békésy's experiments showing the existence of traveling waves in the basilar membrane and that maximal displacement of the traveling wave was determined by the frequency of the sound. The place theory of hearing equates the basilar membrane to a frequency analyzer. The model described in this…

  8. Item Response Theory Modeling of the Philadelphia Naming Test

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fergadiotis, Gerasimos; Kellough, Stacey; Hula, William D.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: In this study, we investigated the fit of the Philadelphia Naming Test (PNT; Roach, Schwartz, Martin, Grewal, & Brecher, 1996) to an item-response-theory measurement model, estimated the precision of the resulting scores and item parameters, and provided a theoretical rationale for the interpretation of PNT overall scores by relating…

  9. Using Conceptual Change Theories to Model Position Concepts in Astronomy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Chih-Chiang; Hung, Jeng-Fung

    2012-01-01

    The roles of conceptual change and model building in science education are very important and have a profound and wide effect on teaching science. This study examines the change in children's position concepts after instruction, based on different conceptual change theories. Three classes were chosen and divided into three groups, including a…

  10. Dimensions of Genocide: The Circumplex Model Meets Violentization Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winton, Mark A.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the use of Olson's (1995, 2000) family therapy based circumplex model and Athens' (1992, 1997, 2003) violentization theory in explaining genocide. The Rwandan genocide of 1994 is used as a case study. Published texts, including interviews with perpetrators, research reports, human rights reports, and court…

  11. Reconstructing constructivism: Causal models, Bayesian learning mechanisms and the theory theory

    PubMed Central

    Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M.

    2012-01-01

    We propose a new version of the “theory theory” grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework theories. We outline the new theoretical ideas, explain the computational framework in an intuitive and non-technical way, and review an extensive but relatively recent body of empirical results that supports these ideas. These include new studies of the mechanisms of learning. Children infer causal structure from statistical information, through their own actions on the world and through observations of the actions of others. Studies demonstrate these learning mechanisms in children from 16 months to 4 years old and include research on causal statistical learning, informal experimentation through play, and imitation and informal pedagogy. They also include studies of the variability and progressive character of intuitive theory change, particularly theory of mind. These studies investigate both the physical and psychological and social domains. We conclude with suggestions for further collaborative projects between developmental and computational cognitive scientists. PMID:22582739

  12. On matrix model formulations of noncommutative Yang-Mills theories

    SciTech Connect

    Azeyanagi, Tatsuo; Hirata, Tomoyoshi; Hanada, Masanori

    2008-11-15

    We study the stability of noncommutative spaces in matrix models and discuss the continuum limit which leads to the noncommutative Yang-Mills theories. It turns out that most noncommutative spaces in bosonic models are unstable. This indicates perturbative instability of fuzzy R{sup D} pointed out by Van Raamsdonk and Armoni et al. persists to nonperturbative level in these cases. In this sense, these bosonic noncommutative Yang-Mills theories are not well-defined, or at least their matrix model formulations studied in this paper do not work. We also show that noncommutative backgrounds are stable in a supersymmetric matrix model deformed by a cubic Myers term, though the deformation itself breaks supersymmetry.

  13. The adhesion model as a field theory for cosmological clustering

    SciTech Connect

    Rigopoulos, Gerasimos

    2015-01-01

    The adhesion model has been proposed in the past as an improvement of the Zel'dovich approximation, providing a good description of the formation of the cosmic web. We recast the model as a field theory for cosmological large scale structure, adding a stochastic force to account for power generated from very short, highly non-linear scales that is uncorrelated with the initial power spectrum. The dynamics of this Stochastic Adhesion Model (SAM) is reminiscent of the well known Kardar-Parisi-Zhang equation with the difference that the viscosity and the noise spectrum are time dependent. Choosing the viscosity proportional to the growth factor D restricts the form of noise spectrum through a 1-loop renormalization argument. For this choice, the SAM field theory is renormalizable to one loop. We comment on the suitability of this model for describing the non-linear regime of the CDM power spectrum and its utility as a relatively simple approach to cosmological clustering.

  14. Accounting for Errors in Model Analysis Theory: A Numerical Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sommer, Steven R.; Lindell, Rebecca S.

    2004-09-01

    By studying the patterns of a group of individuals' responses to a series of multiple-choice questions, researchers can utilize Model Analysis Theory to create a probability distribution of mental models for a student population. The eigenanalysis of this distribution yields information about what mental models the students possess, as well as how consistently they utilize said mental models. Although the theory considers the probabilistic distribution to be fundamental, there exists opportunities for random errors to occur. In this paper we will discuss a numerical approach for mathematically accounting for these random errors. As an example of this methodology, analysis of data obtained from the Lunar Phases Concept Inventory will be presented. Limitations and applicability of this numerical approach will be discussed.

  15. A novel application of theory refinement to student modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Baffes, P.T.; Mooney, R.J.

    1996-12-31

    Theory refinement systems developed in machine learning automatically modify a knowledge base to render it consistent with a set of classified training examples. We illustrate a novel application of these techniques to the problem of constructing a student model for an intelligent tutoring system (ITS). Our approach is implemented in an ITS authoring system called ASSERT which uses theory refinement to introduce errors into an initially correct knowledge base so that it models incorrect student behavior. The efficacy of the approach has been demonstrated by evaluating a tutor developed with ASSERT with 75 students tested on a classification task covering concepts from an introductory course on the C{sup ++} programming language. The system produced reasonably accurate models and students who received feedback based on these models performed significantly better on a post test than students who received simple reteaching.

  16. Alliance: a common factor of psychotherapy modeled by structural theory.

    PubMed

    Tschacher, Wolfgang; Haken, Hermann; Kyselo, Miriam

    2015-01-01

    There is broad consensus that the therapeutic alliance constitutes a core common factor for all modalities of psychotherapy. Meta-analyses corroborated that alliance, as it emerges from therapeutic process, is a significant predictor of therapy outcome. Psychotherapy process is traditionally described and explored using two categorically different approaches, the experiential (first-person) perspective and the behavioral (third-person) perspective. We propose to add to this duality a third, structural approach. Dynamical systems theory and synergetics on the one hand and enactivist theory on the other together can provide this structural approach, which contributes in specific ways to a clarification of the alliance factor. Systems theory offers concepts and tools for the modeling of the individual self and, building on this, of alliance processes. In the enactive perspective, the self is conceived as a socially enacted autonomous system that strives to maintain identity by observing a two-fold goal: to exist as an individual self in its own right (distinction) while also being open to others (participation). Using this conceptualization, we formalized the therapeutic alliance as a phase space whose potential minima (attractors) can be shifted by the therapist to approximate therapy goals. This mathematical formalization is derived from probability theory and synergetics. We draw the conclusion that structural theory provides powerful tools for the modeling of how therapeutic change is staged by the formation, utilization, and dissolution of the therapeutic alliance. In addition, we point out novel testable hypotheses and future applications. PMID:25954215

  17. Alliance: a common factor of psychotherapy modeled by structural theory

    PubMed Central

    Tschacher, Wolfgang; Haken, Hermann; Kyselo, Miriam

    2015-01-01

    There is broad consensus that the therapeutic alliance constitutes a core common factor for all modalities of psychotherapy. Meta-analyses corroborated that alliance, as it emerges from therapeutic process, is a significant predictor of therapy outcome. Psychotherapy process is traditionally described and explored using two categorically different approaches, the experiential (first-person) perspective and the behavioral (third-person) perspective. We propose to add to this duality a third, structural approach. Dynamical systems theory and synergetics on the one hand and enactivist theory on the other together can provide this structural approach, which contributes in specific ways to a clarification of the alliance factor. Systems theory offers concepts and tools for the modeling of the individual self and, building on this, of alliance processes. In the enactive perspective, the self is conceived as a socially enacted autonomous system that strives to maintain identity by observing a two-fold goal: to exist as an individual self in its own right (distinction) while also being open to others (participation). Using this conceptualization, we formalized the therapeutic alliance as a phase space whose potential minima (attractors) can be shifted by the therapist to approximate therapy goals. This mathematical formalization is derived from probability theory and synergetics. We draw the conclusion that structural theory provides powerful tools for the modeling of how therapeutic change is staged by the formation, utilization, and dissolution of the therapeutic alliance. In addition, we point out novel testable hypotheses and future applications. PMID:25954215

  18. Husain-Kuchar Model as a Constrained BF Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montesinos, Merced; Velázquez, Mercedes

    2009-12-01

    The Husain-Kuchar theory is a four-dimensional background-independent model that has long been viewed as a useful model for addressing several conceptual and technical problems appearing in the quantization of general relativity mainly in the loop quantum gravity approach. The model was defined at Lagrangian level in terms of a su(2)-valued connection one-form A coupled through its curvature to a su(2)-valued one-form field e. We address here the problem of writing a Lagrangian formulation for the Husain-Kuchar model as a constrained BF theory motivated by the fact that spin foam models for quantum gravity are related to action principles of the BF type. The Lagrangian action principle for the Husain-Kuchar model reported here differs from a previous one found by Barbero et al. in that this description involves a single constrained BF theory rather than two interacting BF theories. It is, essentially, the Plebański action with the condition on the trace of the Lagrange multipliers removed. Moreover, it can be stated that the relationship between our BF-like action and the original one for the Husain-Kuchar model is the same relationship that exists between the Plebański action and the self-dual Palatini action for complex general relativity, first because the solution to the constraint on the two-forms ∑i coming from the BF-like action leads to the Husain-Kuchar action, and second because the Hamiltonian analysis of the Husain-Kuchar model is straightforward starting from the BF-like action principle.

  19. Library Budget Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Warner, Alice Sizer

    1993-01-01

    Discusses the advantages and disadvantages of six types of budgets commonly used by many different kinds of libraries. The budget types covered are lump-sum; formula; line or line-item; program; performance or function; and zero-based. Accompanying figures demonstrate the differences between four of the budget types. (three references) (KRN)

  20. Program Budgeting: Universities.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ohio Board of Regents, Columbus. Management Improvement Program.

    This manual recognizes there is a wide spectrum of budgeting practices in today's colleges and universities. In particular, universities in Ohio are at different stages in their utilization of program budgeting principles and also have different needs. Thus, this program budgeting manual was written to meet the specific needs of universities in…

  1. Zero Base Budgeting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sarndal, Anne G.

    1979-01-01

    Traditional budgeting starts with the previous year's budget, but zero base budgeting demands that each activity be justified from "scratch," and establishes a number of increments for each unit, in order of priority. Given the set of increments and the money available, management can determine what activities to finance. (Author)

  2. Theory and application of experimental model analysis in earthquake engineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moncarz, P. D.

    The feasibility and limitations of small-scale model studies in earthquake engineering research and practice is considered with emphasis on dynamic modeling theory, a study of the mechanical properties of model materials, the development of suitable model construction techniques and an evaluation of the accuracy of prototype response prediction through model case studies on components and simple steel and reinforced concrete structures. It is demonstrated that model analysis can be used in many cases to obtain quantitative information on the seismic behavior of complex structures which cannot be analyzed confidently by conventional techniques. Methodologies for model testing and response evaluation are developed in the project and applications of model analysis in seismic response studies on various types of civil engineering structures (buildings, bridges, dams, etc.) are evaluated.

  3. Nonlocal Stochastic Model for the Free Scalar Field Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Namsrai, Kh.

    1981-05-01

    The free scalar field is investigated within the framework of the Davidson stochastic model and of the hypothesis on space-time stochasticity. It is shown that the resulting Markov field obtained by averaging in this space-time is equivalent to a nonlocal Euclidean Markov field with the times scaled by a common factor which depends on the diffusion parameter ν. Our result generalizes Guerra and Ruggiero's procedure of stochastic quantization of scalar fields. On the basis of the assumption about unobservability of ν in quantum field theory, the Efimov nonlocal theory is obtained from Euclidean Markov field with form factors of the class of entire analytical functions.

  4. Looking for a Matrix model for ABJM theory

    SciTech Connect

    Mohammed, Asadig; Murugan, Jeff; Nastase, Horatiu

    2010-10-15

    Encouraged by the recent construction of fuzzy sphere solutions in the Aharony, Bergman, Jafferis, and Maldacena (ABJM) theory, we re-analyze the latter from the perspective of a Matrix-like model. In particular, we argue that a vortex solution exhibits properties of a supergraviton, while a kink represents a 2-brane. Other solutions are also consistent with the Matrix-type interpretation. We study vortex scattering and compare with graviton scattering in the massive ABJM background, however our results are inconclusive. We speculate on how to extend our results to construct a Matrix theory of ABJM.

  5. Theory of spin and charge fluctuations in the Hubbard model

    SciTech Connect

    Vilk, Y.M.; Chen, L.; Tremblay, A.S. )

    1994-05-01

    A self-consistent theory of both spin and charge fluctuations in the Hubbard model is presented. It is in quantitative agreement with Monte Carlo data at least up to intermediate coupling ([ital U][similar to]8[ital t]). It includes both short-wavelength quantum renormalization effects, and long-wavelength thermal fluctuations, which can destroy long-range order in two dimensions. The last effect leads to a small energy scale, as often observed in high-temperature superconductors. The theory is conserving, satisfies the Pauli principle, and includes three-particle correlations necessary to account for the incipient Mott transition.

  6. A game theory model of urban public traffic networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, B. B.; Chang, H.; Chen, Y.-Z.; He, D. R.

    2007-06-01

    We have studied urban public traffic networks from the viewpoint of complex networks and game theory. Firstly, we have empirically investigated an urban public traffic network in Beijing in 2003, and obtained its statistical properties. Then a simplified game theory model is proposed for simulating the evolution of the traffic network. The basic idea is that three network manipulators, passengers, an urban public traffic company, and a government traffic management agency, play games in a network evolution process. Each manipulator tries to build the traffic lines to magnify its “benefit”. Simulation results show a good qualitative agreement with the empirical results.

  7. 7 CFR 3402.14 - Budget and budget narrative.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Budget and budget narrative. 3402.14 Section 3402.14... Preparation of an Application § 3402.14 Budget and budget narrative. Applicants must prepare the Budget, Form NIFA-2004, and a budget narrative identifying all costs associated with the application....

  8. Finite Element and Plate Theory Modeling of Acoustic Emission Waveforms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prosser, W. H.; Hamstad, M. A.; Gary, J.; OGallagher, A.

    1998-01-01

    A comparison was made between two approaches to predict acoustic emission waveforms in thin plates. A normal mode solution method for Mindlin plate theory was used to predict the response of the flexural plate mode to a point source, step-function load, applied on the plate surface. The second approach used a dynamic finite element method to model the problem using equations of motion based on exact linear elasticity. Calculations were made using properties for both isotropic (aluminum) and anisotropic (unidirectional graphite/epoxy composite) materials. For simulations of anisotropic plates, propagation along multiple directions was evaluated. In general, agreement between the two theoretical approaches was good. Discrepancies in the waveforms at longer times were caused by differences in reflections from the lateral plate boundaries. These differences resulted from the fact that the two methods used different boundary conditions. At shorter times in the signals, before reflections, the slight discrepancies in the waveforms were attributed to limitations of Mindlin plate theory, which is an approximate plate theory. The advantages of the finite element method are that it used the exact linear elasticity solutions, and that it can be used to model real source conditions and complicated, finite specimen geometries as well as thick plates. These advantages come at a cost of increased computational difficulty, requiring lengthy calculations on workstations or supercomputers. The Mindlin plate theory solutions, meanwhile, can be quickly generated on personal computers. Specimens with finite geometry can also be modeled. However, only limited simple geometries such as circular or rectangular plates can easily be accommodated with the normal mode solution technique. Likewise, very limited source configurations can be modeled and plate theory is applicable only to thin plates.

  9. Phenomenological theory of the Potts model evaporation-condensation transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ibáñez-Berganza, M.

    2016-01-01

    We present a phenomenological theory describing the finite-size evaporation-condensation transition of the q-state Potts model in the microcanonical ensemble. Our arguments rely on the existence of an exponent σ, relating the surface and the volume of the condensed phase droplet. The evaporation-condensation transition temperature and energy converge to their infinite-size values with the same power, a=(1-σ)/(2-σ) , of the inverse of the system size. For the 2D Potts model we show, by means of efficient simulations up to q = 24 and 10242 sites, that the exponent a is compatible with 1/4, assuming assymptotic finite-size convergence. While this value cannot be addressed by the evaporation-condensation theory developed for the Ising model, it is obtained in the present scheme if σ=2/3 , in agreement with previous theoretical guesses. The connection with the phenomenon of metastability in the canonical ensemble is also discussed.

  10. sigma model approach to the heterotic string theory

    SciTech Connect

    Sen, A.

    1985-09-01

    Relation between the equations of motion for the massless fields in the heterotic string theory, and the conformal invariance of the sigma model describing the propagation of the heterotic string in arbitrary background massless fields is discussed. It is emphasized that this sigma model contains complete information about the string theory. Finally, we discuss the extension of the Hull-Witten proof of local gauge and Lorentz invariance of the sigma-model to higher order in ..cap alpha..', and the modification of the transformation laws of the antisymmetric tensor field under these symmetries. Presence of anomaly in the naive N = 1/2 supersymmetry transformation is also pointed out in this context. 12 refs.

  11. An intelligent diagnosis model based on rough set theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Ze; Huang, Hong-Xing; Zheng, Ye-Lu; Wang, Zhou-Yuan

    2013-03-01

    Along with the popularity of computer and rapid development of information technology, how to increase the accuracy of the agricultural diagnosis becomes a difficult problem of popularizing the agricultural expert system. Analyzing existing research, baseing on the knowledge acquisition technology of rough set theory, towards great sample data, we put forward a intelligent diagnosis model. Extract rough set decision table from the samples property, use decision table to categorize the inference relation, acquire property rules related to inference diagnosis, through the means of rough set knowledge reasoning algorithm to realize intelligent diagnosis. Finally, we validate this diagnosis model by experiments. Introduce the rough set theory to provide the agricultural expert system of great sample data a effective diagnosis model.

  12. Modeling Polymorphic Molecular Crystals with Electronic Structure Theory.

    PubMed

    Beran, Gregory J O

    2016-05-11

    Interest in molecular crystals has grown thanks to their relevance to pharmaceuticals, organic semiconductor materials, foods, and many other applications. Electronic structure methods have become an increasingly important tool for modeling molecular crystals and polymorphism. This article reviews electronic structure techniques used to model molecular crystals, including periodic density functional theory, periodic second-order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory, fragment-based electronic structure methods, and diffusion Monte Carlo. It also discusses the use of these models for predicting a variety of crystal properties that are relevant to the study of polymorphism, including lattice energies, structures, crystal structure prediction, polymorphism, phase diagrams, vibrational spectroscopies, and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Finally, tools for analyzing crystal structures and intermolecular interactions are briefly discussed. PMID:27008426

  13. Modelling of thick composites using a layerwise laminate theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robbins, D. H., Jr.; Reddy, J. N.

    1993-01-01

    The layerwise laminate theory of Reddy (1987) is used to develop a layerwise, two-dimensional, displacement-based, finite element model of laminated composite plates that assumes a piecewise continuous distribution of the tranverse strains through the laminate thickness. The resulting layerwise finite element model is capable of computing interlaminar stresses and other localized effects with the same level of accuracy as a conventional 3D finite element model. Although the total number of degrees of freedom are comparable in both models, the layerwise model maintains a 2D-type data structure that provides several advantages over a conventional 3D finite element model, e.g. simplified input data, ease of mesh alteration, and faster element stiffness matrix formulation. Two sample problems are provided to illustrate the accuracy of the present model in computing interlaminar stresses for laminates in bending and extension.

  14. Social learning theory and the Health Belief Model.

    PubMed

    Rosenstock, I M; Strecher, V J; Becker, M H

    1988-01-01

    The Health Belief Model, social learning theory (recently relabelled social cognitive theory), self-efficacy, and locus of control have all been applied with varying success to problems of explaining, predicting, and influencing behavior. Yet, there is conceptual confusion among researchers and practitioners about the interrelationships of these theories and variables. This article attempts to show how these explanatory factors may be related, and in so doing, posits a revised explanatory model which incorporates self-efficacy into the Health Belief Model. Specifically, self-efficacy is proposed as a separate independent variable along with the traditional health belief variables of perceived susceptibility, severity, benefits, and barriers. Incentive to behave (health motivation) is also a component of the model. Locus of control is not included explicitly because it is believed to be incorporated within other elements of the model. It is predicted that the new formulation will more fully account for health-related behavior than did earlier formulations, and will suggest more effective behavioral interventions than have hitherto been available to health educators. PMID:3378902

  15. Matrix models and stochastic growth in Donaldson-Thomas theory

    SciTech Connect

    Szabo, Richard J.; Tierz, Miguel

    2012-10-15

    We show that the partition functions which enumerate Donaldson-Thomas invariants of local toric Calabi-Yau threefolds without compact divisors can be expressed in terms of specializations of the Schur measure. We also discuss the relevance of the Hall-Littlewood and Jack measures in the context of BPS state counting and study the partition functions at arbitrary points of the Kaehler moduli space. This rewriting in terms of symmetric functions leads to a unitary one-matrix model representation for Donaldson-Thomas theory. We describe explicitly how this result is related to the unitary matrix model description of Chern-Simons gauge theory. This representation is used to show that the generating functions for Donaldson-Thomas invariants are related to tau-functions of the integrable Toda and Toeplitz lattice hierarchies. The matrix model also leads to an interpretation of Donaldson-Thomas theory in terms of non-intersecting paths in the lock-step model of vicious walkers. We further show that these generating functions can be interpreted as normalization constants of a corner growth/last-passage stochastic model.

  16. Forewarning model for water pollution risk based on Bayes theory.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Jun; Jin, Juliang; Guo, Qizhong; Chen, Yaqian; Lu, Mengxiong; Tinoco, Luis

    2014-02-01

    In order to reduce the losses by water pollution, forewarning model for water pollution risk based on Bayes theory was studied. This model is built upon risk indexes in complex systems, proceeding from the whole structure and its components. In this study, the principal components analysis is used to screen out index systems. Hydrological model is employed to simulate index value according to the prediction principle. Bayes theory is adopted to obtain posterior distribution by prior distribution with sample information which can make samples' features preferably reflect and represent the totals to some extent. Forewarning level is judged on the maximum probability rule, and then local conditions for proposing management strategies that will have the effect of transforming heavy warnings to a lesser degree. This study takes Taihu Basin as an example. After forewarning model application and vertification for water pollution risk from 2000 to 2009 between the actual and simulated data, forewarning level in 2010 is given as a severe warning, which is well coincide with logistic curve. It is shown that the model is rigorous in theory with flexible method, reasonable in result with simple structure, and it has strong logic superiority and regional adaptability, providing a new way for warning water pollution risk. PMID:24194413

  17. Atmospheric deposition impacts on nutrients and biological budgets of the Mediterranean Sea, results from the high resolution coupled model NEMOMED12/PISCES

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richon, Camille; Dutay, Jean-Claude; Dulac, François; Desboeufs, Karine; Nabat, Pierre; Guieu, Cécile; Aumont, Olivier; Palmieri, Julien

    2016-04-01

    Atmospheric deposition is at present not included in regional oceanic biogeochemical models of the Mediterranean Sea, whereas, along with river inputs, it represents a significant source of nutrients at the basin scale, especially through intense desert dust events. Moreover, observations (e.g. DUNE campaign, Guieu et al. 2010) show that these events significantly modify the biogeochemistry of the oligotrophic Mediterranean Sea. We use a high resolution (1/12°) version of the 3D coupled model NEMOMED12/PISCES to investigate the effects of high resolution atmospheric dust deposition forcings on the biogeochemistry of the Mediterranean basin. The biogeochemical model PISCES represents the evolution of 24 prognostic tracers including five nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, phosphate, silicate and iron) and two phytoplankton and zooplanktons groups (Palmiéri, 2014). From decadal simulations (1982-2012) we evaluate the influence of natural dust and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition on the budget of nutrients in the basin and its impact on the biogeochemistry (primary production, plankton distributions...). Our results show that natural dust deposition accounts for 15% of global PO4 budget and that it influences primarily the southern part of the basin. Anthropogenic nitrogen accounts for 50% of bioavailable N supply for the northern part. Deposition events significantly affect biological production; primary productivity enhancement can be as high as 30% in the areas of high deposition, especially during the stratified period. Further developments of the model will include 0D and 1D modeling of bacteria in the frame of the PEACETIME project.

  18. Quantifying spatial patterns and timescales of fine sediment redistribution in river basins: application of a sediment budget model with fallout radionuclide tracers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Hugh; Blake, William; Taylor, Alex

    2013-04-01

    Improved understanding of fine sediment and associated contaminant redistribution within river basins requires information on the sources and rates of sediment supply alongside the timescales of downstream sediment transfer. Sediment budgets are an effective tool for examining these patterns. While small, intensively monitored research catchments may provide such information, the examination of larger scale patterns of sediment transfer often requires the use of modelling-based approaches. Furthermore, knowledge of timescales of fine sediment transfer in river basins is limited. Few studies link sediment budgets with explicit information on the residence or travel times of fine sediment. This information is essential for understanding contemporary patterns of river basin sediment redistribution, and has implications for predicting possible recovery times of rivers affected by contaminated sediment from historic or recent pollution. Against this background, we aim to quantify the spatial patterns and timescales of suspended sediment transfer through a river basin (917 km2) situated in south-west England. We apply a spatially-distributed sediment budget model (SedNet) in conjunction with high-resolution spatial data and long-term rainfall and river flow measurements. Model outputs provide an indication of mean annual patterns of sediment redistribution and yields, which were computed for three land cover surveys. This modelling was coupled with techniques for estimating fine sediment residence times, which are based on differences in the decay rates of three fallout radionuclides (Be-7, excess Pb-210 and Cs-137). Findings from this study demonstrate the need for more integrated approaches to better understand spatial patterns and timescales of sediment redistribution in river basins.

  19. Composition dependence of fluid thermophysical properties: Theory and modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Ely, J.F.

    1993-03-29

    Objectives are studies of equilibrium/nonequilibrium properties of asymmetric fluid mixtures through computer simulation (CS), development of predictive theories of mixture equilibrium properties, development and application of selection algorithm methodology for mixture equations of state, and use of theory to develop new engineering design models for fluid mixtures. Kirwood charging method CS of Lennard-Jones mixtures with large size ratios verified the Kirkwood-Buff/Baxter method of calculating chemical potentials. CS of n-butane showed that the rheology is not a function of system size. A modified stepwise regression algorithm was developed and applied to HFC R134a. An analytical expression was developed for conformal solution size correction for mixtures. The extended corresponding states theory (ECST) can be applied to systems having large polarity differences; an accurate representation was developed of bulk phase properties of water-hydrocarbon systems. It was found how to force ECST to reach the correct virial limit.

  20. Center vortex model for Sp(2) Yang-Mills theory

    SciTech Connect

    Engelhardt, M.; Sperisen, B.

    2006-12-15

    The question whether the center vortex picture of the strongly interacting vacuum can encompass the infrared dynamics of both SU(2) as well as Sp(2) Yang-Mills theory is addressed. These two theories contain the same center vortex degrees of freedom, and yet exhibit deconfinement phase transitions of different order. This is argued to be caused by the effective action governing the vortices being different in the two cases. To buttress this argument, a random vortex world-surface model is constructed which reproduces available lattice data characterizing Sp(2) Yang-Mills confinement properties. A new effective action term which can be interpreted in terms of a vortex stickiness serves to realize a first-order deconfinement phase transition, as found in Sp(2) Yang-Mills theory. Predictions are given for the behavior of the spatial string tension at finite temperatures.

  1. Attachment theory and theory of planned behavior: an integrative model predicting underage drinking.

    PubMed

    Lac, Andrew; Crano, William D; Berger, Dale E; Alvaro, Eusebio M

    2013-08-01

    Research indicates that peer and maternal bonds play important but sometimes contrasting roles in the outcomes of children. Less is known about attachment bonds to these 2 reference groups in young adults. Using a sample of 351 participants (18 to 20 years of age), the research integrated two theoretical traditions: attachment theory and theory of planned behavior (TPB). The predictive contribution of both theories was examined in the context of underage adult alcohol use. Using full structural equation modeling, results substantiated the hypotheses that secure peer attachment positively predicted norms and behavioral control toward alcohol, but secure maternal attachment inversely predicted attitudes and behavioral control toward alcohol. Alcohol attitudes, norms, and behavioral control each uniquely explained alcohol intentions, which anticipated an increase in alcohol behavior 1 month later. The hypothesized processes were statistically corroborated by tests of indirect and total effects. These findings support recommendations for programs designed to curtail risky levels of underage drinking using the tenets of attachment theory and TPB. PMID:23127300

  2. Global carbon budget 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Quéré, C.; Peters, G. P.; Andres, R. J.; Andrew, R. M.; Boden, T.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Houghton, R. A.; Marland, G.; Moriarty, R.; Sitch, S.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Arvanitis, A.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Bopp, L.; Canadell, J. G.; Chini, L. P.; Doney, S. C.; Harper, A.; Harris, I.; House, J. I.; Jain, A. K.; Jones, S. D.; Kato, E.; Keeling, R. F.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Körtzinger, A.; Koven, C.; Lefèvre, N.; Omar, A.; Ono, T.; Park, G.-H.; Pfeil, B.; Poulter, B.; Raupach, M. R.; Regnier, P.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Schwinger, J.; Segschneider, J.; Stocker, B. D.; Tilbrook, B.; van Heuven, S.; Viovy, N.; Wanninkhof, R.; Wiltshire, A.; Zaehle, S.; Yue, C.

    2013-11-01

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe datasets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. All uncertainties are reported as ± 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003-2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr-1, ELUC 0.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 GtC yr-1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7

  3. Modelling spatio-temporal variability of Mytilus edulis (L.) growth by forcing a dynamic energy budget model with satellite-derived environmental data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Yoann; Mazurié, Joseph; Alunno-Bruscia, Marianne; Bacher, Cédric; Bouget, Jean-François; Gohin, Francis; Pouvreau, Stéphane; Struski, Caroline

    2011-11-01

    In order to assess the potential of various marine ecosystems for shellfish aquaculture and to evaluate their carrying capacities, there is a need to clarify the response of exploited species to environmental variations using robust ecophysiological models and available environmental data. For a large range of applications and comparison purposes, a non-specific approach based on 'generic' individual growth models offers many advantages. In this context, we simulated the response of blue mussel ( Mytilus edulis L.) to the spatio-temporal fluctuations of the environment in Mont Saint-Michel Bay (North Brittany) by forcing a generic growth model based on Dynamic Energy Budgets with satellite-derived environmental data (i.e. temperature and food). After a calibration step based on data from mussel growth surveys, the model was applied over nine years on a large area covering the entire bay. These simulations provide an evaluation of the spatio-temporal variability in mussel growth and also show the ability of the DEB model to integrate satellite-derived data and to predict spatial and temporal growth variability of mussels. Observed seasonal, inter-annual and spatial growth variations are well simulated. The large-scale application highlights the strong link between food and mussel growth. The methodology described in this study may be considered as a suitable approach to account for environmental effects (food and temperature variations) on physiological responses (growth and reproduction) of filter feeders in varying environments. Such physiological responses may then be useful for evaluating the suitability of coastal ecosystems for shellfish aquaculture.

  4. Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Budget of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The annual energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is characterized by a net heat loss at the air-sea interface that is balanced by oceanic heat transport into the Arctic. The energy loss at the air-sea interface is due to the combined effects of radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. The inflow of heat by the ocean can be divided into two components: the transport of water masses of different temperatures between the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the export of sea ice, primarily through Fram Strait. Two 150-year simulations (1950-2099) of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. One is a control simulation for the present climate with constant 1950 atmospheric composition, and the other is a transient experiment with observed GHGs from 1950 to 1990 and 0.5% annual compounded increases of CO2 after 1990. For the present climate the model agrees well with observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, atmospheric advective energy transport into the Arctic, and surface air temperature. It also simulates the seasonal cycle and summer increase of cloud cover and the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover. In addition, the changes in high-latitude surface air temperature and sea-ice cover in the GHG experiment are consistent with observed changes during the last 40 and 20 years, respectively. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that even though the net annual incident solar radiation at the surface decreases by 4.6 W(per square meters) (because of greater cloud cover and increased cloud optical depth), the absorbed solar radiation increases by 2.8 W(per square meters) (because of less sea ice). Increased cloud cover and warmer air also cause increased downward thermal radiation at the surface so that the net radiation into the ocean increases by 5.0 Wm-2. The annual increase in radiation into the ocean, however, is

  5. WLWL scattering in Higgsless models: Identifying better effective theories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belyaev, Alexander S.; Chivukula, R. Sekhar; Christensen, Neil D.; He, Hong-Jian; Kurachi, Masafumi; Simmons, Elizabeth H.; Tanabashi, Masaharu

    2009-09-01

    The three-site model has been offered as a benchmark for studying the collider phenomenology of Higgsless models. In this paper we analyze how well the three-site model performs as a general exemplar of Higgsless models in describing WLWL scattering, and which modifications can make it more representative. We employ general sum rules relating the masses and couplings of the Kaluza-Klein modes of the gauge fields in continuum and deconstructed Higgsless models as a way to compare the different theories. We show that the size of the four-point vertex for the (unphysical) Nambu-Goldstone modes and the degree to which the sum rules are saturated by contributions from the lowest-lying Kaluza-Klein resonances both provide good measures of the extent to which a highly deconstructed theory can accurately describe the low-energy physics of a continuum 5D Higgsless model. After comparing the three-site model to flat and warped continuum models, we analyze extensions of the three-site model to a longer open linear moose with an additional U(1) group and to a ring (“breaking electroweak symmetry strongly” or “hidden local symmetry”) model with three sites and three links. Both cases may be readily analyzed in the framework of the general sum rules. We demonstrate that WLWL scattering in the ring model can very closely approximate scattering in the continuum models, provided that the hidden local symmetry parameter a is chosen to mimic ρ-meson dominance of ππ scattering in QCD. The hadron and lepton collider phenomenology of both extended models is briefly discussed, with a focus on the complementary information to be gained from precision measurements of the Z' line shape and ZWW coupling at a high-energy lepton collider.

  6. Sediment budgeting of German waterways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Promny, M.

    2012-04-01

    Waterways today rarely have a sustainable sediment budget. Supply from upstream and lateral sources is blocked by barrages in many places. The transport capacity is strongly modified by means of planform and cross-section alterations. Many free-flowing river sections are subject to bed degradation, while impoundments tend to aggrade. This has consequences for the usability of navigation facilities, stability of structures (like bridge foundations and dykes) and groundwater levels. Consequently, sediment managements operations are commonplace, being challenging in economic and ecologic terms. A first step towards an improved sediment management is to establish the current sediment budget of a river. There are different methods to gain information about the sediment budget: - measurements of bed-load and suspended load transport - deductions from temporal development of bed-level development - deductions from temporal development of streamwise water-level measurements - deductions from temporal development of water-levels at gauges - bed-load tracer analyses - numerical modelling An overview of the methods used in sediment budgeting of German waterways at the Federal Institute of Hydrology will be given. Ongoing research based on the above mentioned methodology will be presented, with a special focus on the possible influence of climate change on sediment budgets.

  7. Zero Based Budgeting for Voc Ed

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chuang, Ying C.

    1977-01-01

    To help vocational education budget planners take a good look each year at where they are going, what they are trying to accomplish, and where to put their money, this article describes the 12 steps in a model commonly used for zero based budgeting. (Author/HD)

  8. Budgeting Basics: Profit Planning with Spreadsheets.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hollister, Joan; Schultz, Sally M.

    1996-01-01

    Budgeting is a valuable planning tool, facilitated by basic spreadsheets. Three basic steps in creating a budget--listing fixed and variable costs, computing a break-even point, and evaluating modifications--are explained. Models illustrate the basics of moving around the spreadsheet and entering formulas. Popular spreadsheet programs and price…

  9. Circuit theory and model-based inference for landscape connectivity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2013-01-01

    Circuit theory has seen extensive recent use in the field of ecology, where it is often applied to study functional connectivity. The landscape is typically represented by a network of nodes and resistors, with the resistance between nodes a function of landscape characteristics. The effective distance between two locations on a landscape is represented by the resistance distance between the nodes in the network. Circuit theory has been applied to many other scientific fields for exploratory analyses, but parametric models for circuits are not common in the scientific literature. To model circuits explicitly, we demonstrate a link between Gaussian Markov random fields and contemporary circuit theory using a covariance structure that induces the necessary resistance distance. This provides a parametric model for second-order observations from such a system. In the landscape ecology setting, the proposed model provides a simple framework where inference can be obtained for effects that landscape features have on functional connectivity. We illustrate the approach through a landscape genetics study linking gene flow in alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra) to the underlying landscape.

  10. Spatially random models, estimation theory, and robot arm dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodriguez, G.

    1987-01-01

    Spatially random models provide an alternative to the more traditional deterministic models used to describe robot arm dynamics. These alternative models can be used to establish a relationship between the methodologies of estimation theory and robot dynamics. A new class of algorithms for many of the fundamental robotics problems of inverse and forward dynamics, inverse kinematics, etc. can be developed that use computations typical in estimation theory. The algorithms make extensive use of the difference equations of Kalman filtering and Bryson-Frazier smoothing to conduct spatial recursions. The spatially random models are very easy to describe and are based on the assumption that all of the inertial (D'Alembert) forces in the system are represented by a spatially distributed white-noise model. The models can also be used to generate numerically the composite multibody system inertia matrix. This is done without resorting to the more common methods of deterministic modeling involving Lagrangian dynamics, Newton-Euler equations, etc. These methods make substantial use of human knowledge in derivation and minipulation of equations of motion for complex mechanical systems.

  11. MJO theory in relation to comprehensive models and observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobel, A. H.

    2015-12-01

    I will describe some recent thinking on the fundamental physics of the MJO. Much recent work portrays the MJO as some form of "moisture mode" - meaning that the prognostic variable of greatest importance is moisture or a conserved variable closely related to it, such as moist static energy or moist entropy - and I will argue for this line of thinking, presenting evidence in favor of it, as well as unresolved problems. I will focus on the relationship between theory, numerical modeling at a range of scales, and observations. We have reached a new phase in the study of the MJO: the phenomenon has been described in great detail from an observational point of view, and perhaps even more importantly, the best numerical models can now simulate it well. I will argue that in this situation, theory is most compelling when its core assumptions can be specifically defended using both observations and comprehensive numerical models. I will make connections between the moisture mode view and results from several different types of numerical models: numerical weather prediction models, global climate models, and small-domain high-resolution cloud resolving models.

  12. Symmetry Breaking, Unification, and Theories Beyond the Standard Model

    SciTech Connect

    Nomura, Yasunori

    2009-07-31

    A model was constructed in which the supersymmetric fine-tuning problem is solved without extending the Higgs sector at the weak scale. We have demonstrated that the model can avoid all the phenomenological constraints, while avoiding excessive fine-tuning. We have also studied implications of the model on dark matter physics and collider physics. I have proposed in an extremely simple construction for models of gauge mediation. We found that the {mu} problem can be simply and elegantly solved in a class of models where the Higgs fields couple directly to the supersymmetry breaking sector. We proposed a new way of addressing the flavor problem of supersymmetric theories. We have proposed a new framework of constructing theories of grand unification. We constructed a simple and elegant model of dark matter which explains excess flux of electrons/positrons. We constructed a model of dark energy in which evolving quintessence-type dark energy is naturally obtained. We studied if we can find evidence of the multiverse.

  13. Cloudiness and the radiation budget

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    The problem of obtaining data for quantification of the effects of clouds on radiation budget measurements is discussed. Areas considered include the relationship between observed cloud characteristics and model predicted characteristics and selection of an angular distribution function for conversion of scanning radiometer radiance to irradiance. Storage of meteorological satellite data related to cloud-radiation interactions is discussed.

  14. Nonlocal theory and finite element modeling of nano-composites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alvinasab, Ali

    This research is concerned with fundamentals of modeling nano-composites. The study contains two major parts, namely, numerical modeling of nanocomposites and nonlocal theory based approach for predicting behavior of Carbon Nanotubes (CNTs). Computational modeling of glass (silica) fibers having micro-scale outer dimensions and nano-scale internal structures was performed to assess its mechanical behavior. Self-assembly technique was used to synthesize the individual fibers of approximately 5 mum in length with a hexagonal cross-section (2mum between two opposite sides) and honeycomb-like internal nano-structures. These fibers have several potential applications including synthesis of multifunctional composite materials. Numerical modeling of the individual fibers was performed using continuum mechanics based approach wherein linear elastic elements were utilized within a commercial finite element (FE) analysis software. A representative volume element approach was adopted for computational efficiency. Appropriate loads and boundary conditions were used to derive stress-strain relationship (stiffness matrix) which has six independent constants for the individual fiber. Force-displacement relationships under simulated nanoindentation were obtained for the actual fiber (with six independent constants) and under transversely isotropic approximation. The contact problem was solved for the transversely isotropic case, which indicated a much stiffer fiber compared to the FE predictions. This difference is likely due to the geometric nonlinearity considered in FE analysis yielding accurate results for large displacements. The effective mechanical properties of randomly oriented nano-structured glass fiber composite are evaluated by using a continuum mechanics based FE model. The longitudinal and transverse properties of aligned fiber are calculated. Then the equivalent material properties for tilted fiber with different fiber orientations are obtained. Based on equivalent

  15. Modeling of Active Transmembrane Transport in a Mixture Theory Framework

    PubMed Central

    Ateshian, Gerard A.; Morrison, Barclay; Hung, Clark T.

    2010-01-01

    This study formulates governing equations for active transport across semi-permeable membranes within the framework of the theory of mixtures. In mixture theory, which models the interactions of any number of fluid and solid constituents, a supply term appears in the conservation of linear momentum to describe momentum exchanges among the constituents. In past applications, this momentum supply was used to model frictional interactions only, thereby describing passive transport processes. In this study, it is shown that active transport processes, which impart momentum to solutes or solvent, may also be incorporated in this term. By projecting the equation of conservation of linear momentum along the normal to the membrane, a jump condition is formulated for the mechano-electrochemical potential of fluid constituents which is generally applicable to nonequilibrium processes involving active transport. The resulting relations are simple and easy to use, and address an important need in the membrane transport literature. PMID:20213212

  16. Ranking streamflow model performance based on Information theory metrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinez, Gonzalo; Pachepsky, Yakov; Pan, Feng; Wagener, Thorsten; Nicholson, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    The accuracy-based model performance metrics not necessarily reflect the qualitative correspondence between simulated and measured streamflow time series. The objective of this work was to use the information theory-based metrics to see whether they can be used as complementary tool for hydrologic model evaluation and selection. We simulated 10-year streamflow time series in five watersheds located in Texas, North Carolina, Mississippi, and West Virginia. Eight model of different complexity were applied. The information-theory based metrics were obtained after representing the time series as strings of symbols where different symbols corresponded to different quantiles of the probability distribution of streamflow. The symbol alphabet was used. Three metrics were computed for those strings - mean information gain that measures the randomness of the signal, effective measure complexity that characterizes predictability and fluctuation complexity that characterizes the presence of a pattern in the signal. The observed streamflow time series has smaller information content and larger complexity metrics than the precipitation time series. Watersheds served as information filters and and streamflow time series were less random and more complex than the ones of precipitation. This is reflected the fact that the watershed acts as the information filter in the hydrologic conversion process from precipitation to streamflow. The Nash Sutcliffe efficiency metric increased as the complexity of models increased, but in many cases several model had this efficiency values not statistically significant from each other. In such cases, ranking models by the closeness of the information-theory based parameters in simulated and measured streamflow time series can provide an additional criterion for the evaluation of hydrologic model performance.

  17. A realistic model for quantum theory with a locality property

    SciTech Connect

    Eberhard, P.H.

    1987-04-01

    A model reproducing the predictions of relativistic quantum theory to any desired degree of accuracy is described in this paper. It involves quantities that are independent of the observer's knowledge, and therefore can be called real, and which are defined at each point in space, and therefore can be called local in a rudimentary sense. It involves faster-than-light, but not instantaneous, action at distance.

  18. Noncommutative gauge theory and symmetry breaking in matrix models

    SciTech Connect

    Grosse, Harald; Steinacker, Harold; Lizzi, Fedele

    2010-04-15

    We show how the fields and particles of the standard model can be naturally realized in noncommutative gauge theory. Starting with a Yang-Mills matrix model in more than four dimensions, an SU(n) gauge theory on a Moyal-Weyl space arises with all matter and fields in the adjoint of the gauge group. We show how this gauge symmetry can be broken spontaneously down to SU(3){sub c}xSU(2){sub L}xU(1){sub Q}[resp. SU(3){sub c}xU(1){sub Q}], which couples appropriately to all fields in the standard model. An additional U(1){sub B} gauge group arises which is anomalous at low energies, while the trace-U(1) sector is understood in terms of emergent gravity. A number of additional fields arise, which we assume to be massive, in a pattern that is reminiscent of supersymmetry. The symmetry breaking might arise via spontaneously generated fuzzy spheres, in which case the mechanism is similar to brane constructions in string theory.

  19. Modelling mechanical characteristics of microbial biofilms by network theory

    PubMed Central

    Ehret, Alexander E.; Böl, Markus

    2013-01-01

    In this contribution, we present a constitutive model to describe the mechanical behaviour of microbial biofilms based on classical approaches in the continuum theory of polymer networks. Although the model is particularly developed for the well-studied biofilms formed by mucoid Pseudomonas aeruginosa strains, it could easily be adapted to other biofilms. The basic assumption behind the model is that the network of extracellular polymeric substances can be described as a superposition of worm-like chain networks, each connected by transient junctions of a certain lifetime. Several models that were applied to biofilms previously are included in the presented approach as special cases, and for small shear strains, the governing equations are those of four parallel Maxwell elements. Rheological data given in the literature are very adequately captured by the proposed model, and the simulated response for a series of compression tests at large strains is in good qualitative agreement with reported experimental behaviour. PMID:23034354

  20. Modelling the contribution of short-range atmospheric and hydrological transfers to nitrogen fluxes, budgets and indirect emissions in rural landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drouet, J.-L.; Duretz, S.; Durand, P.; Cellier, P.

    2012-05-01

    Spatial interactions within a landscape may lead to large inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr) transferred from cultivated areas and farms to oligotrophic ecosystems and induce environmental threats such as acidification, nitric pollution or eutrophication of protected areas. The paper presents a new methodology to estimate Nr fluxes at the landscape scale by taking into account spatial interactions between landscape elements. This methodology includes estimates of indirect Nr emissions due to short-range atmospheric and hydrological transfers. We used the NitroScape model which integrates processes of Nr transformation and short-range transfer in a dynamic and spatially distributed way to simulate Nr fluxes and budgets at the landscape scale. Four configurations of NitroScape were implemented by taking into account or not the atmospheric, hydrological or both pathways of Nr transfer. We simulated Nr fluxes, especially direct and indirect Nr emissions, within a test landscape including pig farms, croplands and unmanaged ecosystems. Simulation results showed the ability of NitroScape to simulate patterns of Nr emissions and recapture for each landscape element and the whole landscape. NitroScape made it possible to quantify the contribution of both atmospheric and hydrological transfers to Nr fluxes, budgets and indirect Nr emissions. For instance, indirect N2O emissions were estimated at around 21% of the total N2O emissions. They varied within the landscape according to land use, meteorological and soil conditions as well as topography. This first attempt proved that the NitroScape model is a useful tool to estimate the effect of spatial interactions on Nr fluxes and budgets as well as indirect Nr emissions within landscapes. Our approach needs to be further tested by applying NitroScape to several spatial arrangements of agro-ecosystems within the landscape and to real and larger landscapes.

  1. Simulation and Evaluation of the Nitrogen Cycle in the Dynamic Land Model LM3V: The Nitrogen budget of the Susquehanna River Watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, M.; Jaffe, P. R.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.

    2011-12-01

    Anthropogenic nutrient inputs have increasingly altered the global natural N cycle and caused an accumulation of excess N in some terrestrial systems. Application of the Princeton-Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) LM3V land model to the Susquehanna River basin watershed has been used to identify and predict these human impacts, and how they are linked to different weather patterns. By coupling biophysical and biogeochemical dynamics, LM3V captures key mechanisms of the plant-soil-climate system. The Susquehanna River is the largest of the watersheds in the northeastern U.S. and provides two-thirds of the annual N load to the Chesapeake Bay, draining an area of 71,200 square kilometers. The goal of this study is to test and verify the water and N budgets in the LM3V model before developing the N dynamics for a river within the overall model. The model was run using the output of the GFDL AM2 model and observed precipitations cycled over a horizon of 20 years, to perform 1495-year long-term simulations with a 0.125 degree resolution. This study analyzes the model output for two runs: 1) a 1200-year run without any anthropogenic inputs, and 2) a 295-year run with the additions of landuse, anthropogenic N-deposition (1616 kg km-2 yr-1), and fertilizer application (1905 N kg km-2 yr -1 to the crop land). For each run, 20-year average simulated water and N budgets for a single point (77w and 40 50'N) are compared to measured values. Simulated (457 mm/yr) and observed (453 mm/yr) stream discharge rates were in close agreement. The results of the non-anthropogenic N budgets differed substantially from the reported N budgets. The run considering human influences resulted in N budgets that corresponded well to reported values. The model simulated forest (70%), crop (23%), and pasture (7%) land uses. Leaching, harvest, and fixation rates varied depending on the different land use types. Pasture land had the highest leaching rate (1436 N kg km-2 yr-1) due to lower

  2. Basic Models in the Quantum Theory of Magnetism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Izyumov, Yu. A.

    2003-08-01

    We regard the Heisenberg model, the Hubbard model, the tJ-model and the sd-model as the basic models of the quantum theory of magnetism in solids. They can describe localized and itinerant magnets and strongly correlated electron systems. This review is devoted to analytical approaches for these models: diagrammatic techniques and the method of generating functional. The diagrammatic techniques are based on a generalization of the Wick theorem for spin and X operators. Peculiarities of such techniques for the basic models appear because the spin and X operators do not commute on a C-value, but their commutator (anticommutator) is an operator itself. The method of generating functional is a generalization of the Kadanoff-Baym approach, developed earlier for usual Fermi systems. The generating functional describes the interaction of a system with fluctuating fields, and different Green's functions can be treated as variational derivatives with respect to these fields. Such approach allows to derive the equation of motion for the Green's functions in each model in terms of functional derivatives. These equations help to find common features in the behavior of the basic models, particularly in finding the multiplicative structure of one-particle Green's functions. Iteration of the equations generates perturbation theory, which is compared with the diagrammatic techniques. Both approaches are applied to the calculation of the quasiparticle spectrum of the models and of collective excitations. A generalized random phase approximation (GRPA) is suggested for calculation of different dynamical susceptibilities. This approximation is developed in both approaches: the diagrammatic technique and the generating functional method.

  3. Theories linguistiques, modeles informatiques, experimentation psycholinguistique (Linguistic Theories, Information-Processing Models, Psycholinguistic Experimentation)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dubois, Daniele

    1975-01-01

    Delineates and elaborates upon the underlying psychological postulates in linguistic and information-processing models, and shows the interdependence of psycholinguistics and linguistic analysis. (Text is in French.) (DB)

  4. A catastrophe-theory model for simulating behavioral accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Souder, W.E.

    1988-01-01

    Behavioral accidents are a particular type of accident. They are caused by inappropriate individual behaviors and faulty reactions. Catastrophe theory is a means for mathematically modeling the dynamic processes that underlie behavioral accidents. Based on a comprehensive data base of mining accidents, a computerized catastrophe model has been developed by the Bureau of Mines. This model systematically links individual psychological, group behavioral, and mine environmental variables with other accident causing factors. It answers several longstanding questions about why some normally safe behaving persons may spontaneously engage in unsafe acts that have high risks of serious injury. Field tests with the model indicate that it has three imnportant uses: it can be used as a effective training aid for increasing employee safety consciousness; it can be used as a management laboratory for testing decision alternatives and policies; and it can be used to help design the most effective work teams.

  5. Hubbard operator density functional theory for Fermionic lattice models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Zhengqian; Marianetti, Chris

    We formulate an effective action as a functional of Hubbard operator densities whose stationary point delivers all local static information of the interacting lattice model. Using the variational principle, we get a self-consistent equation for Hubbard operator densities. The computational cost of our approach is set by diagonalizing the local Fock space. We apply our method to the one and two band Hubbard model (including crystal field and on-site exchange) in infinite dimensions where the exact solution is known. Excellent agreement is obtained for the one-band model. In the two-band model, good agreement is obtained in the metallic region of the phase diagram in addition to the metal-insulator transition. While our approach does not address frequency dependent observables, it has a negligible computational cost as compared to dynamical mean field theory and could be highly applicable in the context total energies of strongly correlated materials and molecules.

  6. The 'X model': a modified version of the competition theory.

    PubMed

    Scott, O C; Révész, L; Edgren, M

    1993-10-01

    In 1985, Edgren et al. proposed a modified version of the competition theory to explain the interaction of sensitizers and protectors with target molecules damaged by radiation, which was designated the 'X' model. This model incorporates concepts which have been considered previously, namely that a type of radiation damage exists which cannot be chemically repaired, and that cells may contain a naturally occurring sensitizer. The model leads to testable predictions, such as, e.g. the crossing of 'K curves' when the level of protection is varied. It can only be applied to the immediate effects of radiation, i.e. before enzymatic reactions play a part. The present paper is a summary of work carried out since 1985 to test the predictions of the 'X' model and an exposition of the related algebra. PMID:7901298

  7. Changes in water budgets and sediment yields from a hypothetical agricultural field as a function of landscape and management characteristics--A unit field modeling approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roth, Jason L.; Capel, Paul D.

    2012-01-01

    Crop agriculture occupies 13 percent of the conterminous United States. Agricultural management practices, such as crop and tillage types, affect the hydrologic flow paths through the landscape. Some agricultural practices, such as drainage and irrigation, create entirely new hydrologic flow paths upon the landscapes where they are implemented. These hydrologic changes can affect the magnitude and partitioning of water budgets and sediment erosion. Given the wide degree of variability amongst agricultural settings, changes in the magnitudes of hydrologic flow paths and sediment erosion induced by agricultural management practices commonly are difficult to characterize, quantify, and compare using only field observations. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to simulate two landscape characteristics (slope and soil texture) and three agricultural management practices (land cover/crop type, tillage type, and selected agricultural land management practices) to evaluate their effects on the water budgets of and sediment yield from agricultural lands. An array of sixty-eight 60-year simulations were run, each representing a distinct natural or agricultural scenario with various slopes, soil textures, crop or land cover types, tillage types, and select agricultural management practices on an isolated 16.2-hectare field. Simulations were made to represent two common agricultural climate regimes: arid with sprinkler irrigation and humid. These climate regimes were constructed with actual climate and irrigation data. The results of these simulations demonstrate the magnitudes of potential changes in water budgets and sediment yields from lands as a result of landscape characteristics and agricultural practices adopted on them. These simulations showed that variations in landscape characteristics, such as slope and soil type, had appreciable effects on water budgets and sediment yields. As slopes increased, sediment yields increased in both the arid and

  8. Bayesian Decision Theory Guiding Educational Decision-Making: Theories, Models and Application

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pan, Yilin

    2016-01-01

    Given the importance of education and the growing public demand for improving education quality under tight budget constraints, there has been an emerging movement to call for research-informed decisions in educational resource allocation. Despite the abundance of rigorous studies on the effectiveness, cost, and implementation of educational…

  9. Abelian p-form (p = 1, 2, 3) gauge theories as the field theoretic models for the Hodge theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, R.; Krishna, S.; Shukla, A.; Malik, R. P.

    2014-09-01

    Taking the simple examples of an Abelian 1-form gauge theory in two (1+1)-dimensions, a 2-form gauge theory in four (3+1)-dimensions and a 3-form gauge theory in six (5+1)-dimensions of space-time, we establish that such gauge theories respect, in addition to the gauge symmetry transformations that are generated by the first-class constraints of the theory, additional continuous symmetry transformations. We christen the latter symmetry transformations as the dual-gauge transformations. We generalize the above gauge and dual-gauge transformations to obtain the proper (anti-)BRST and (anti-)dual-BRST transformations for the Abelian 3-form gauge theory within the framework of BRST formalism. We concisely mention such symmetries for the 2D free Abelian 1-form and 4D free Abelian 2-form gauge theories and briefly discuss their topological aspects in our present endeavor. We conjecture that any arbitrary Abelian p-form gauge theory would respect the above cited additional symmetry in D = 2p(p = 1, 2, 3, …) dimensions of space-time. By exploiting the above inputs, we establish that the Abelian 3-form gauge theory, in six (5+1)-dimensions of space-time, is a perfect model for the Hodge theory whose discrete and continuous symmetry transformations provide the physical realizations of all aspects of the de Rham cohomological operators of differential geometry. As far as the physical utility of the above nilpotent symmetries is concerned, we demonstrate that the 2D Abelian 1-form gauge theory is a perfect model of a new class of topological theory and 4D Abelian 2-form as well as 6D Abelian 3-form gauge theories are the field theoretic models for the quasi-topological field theory.

  10. Reasoning with Conditionals: A Test of Formal Models of Four Theories

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oberauer, Klaus

    2006-01-01

    The four dominant theories of reasoning from conditionals are translated into formal models: The theory of mental models (Johnson-Laird, P. N., & Byrne, R. M. J. (2002). Conditionals: a theory of meaning, pragmatics, and inference. "Psychological Review," 109, 646-678), the suppositional theory (Evans, J. S. B. T., & Over, D. E. (2004). "If."…

  11. MaRIE theory, modeling and computation roadmap executive summary

    SciTech Connect

    Lookman, Turab

    2010-01-01

    The confluence of MaRIE (Matter-Radiation Interactions in Extreme) and extreme (exascale) computing timelines offers a unique opportunity in co-designing the elements of materials discovery, with theory and high performance computing, itself co-designed by constrained optimization of hardware and software, and experiments. MaRIE's theory, modeling, and computation (TMC) roadmap efforts have paralleled 'MaRIE First Experiments' science activities in the areas of materials dynamics, irradiated materials and complex functional materials in extreme conditions. The documents that follow this executive summary describe in detail for each of these areas the current state of the art, the gaps that exist and the road map to MaRIE and beyond. Here we integrate the various elements to articulate an overarching theme related to the role and consequences of heterogeneities which manifest as competing states in a complex energy landscape. MaRIE experiments will locate, measure and follow the dynamical evolution of these heterogeneities. Our TMC vision spans the various pillar science and highlights the key theoretical and experimental challenges. We also present a theory, modeling and computation roadmap of the path to and beyond MaRIE in each of the science areas.

  12. Symmetry-guided large-scale shell-model theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Launey, Kristina D.; Dytrych, Tomas; Draayer, Jerry P.

    2016-07-01

    In this review, we present a symmetry-guided strategy that utilizes exact as well as partial symmetries for enabling a deeper understanding of and advancing ab initio studies for determining the microscopic structure of atomic nuclei. These symmetries expose physically relevant degrees of freedom that, for large-scale calculations with QCD-inspired interactions, allow the model space size to be reduced through a very structured selection of the basis states to physically relevant subspaces. This can guide explorations of simple patterns in nuclei and how they emerge from first principles, as well as extensions of the theory beyond current limitations toward heavier nuclei and larger model spaces. This is illustrated for the ab initio symmetry-adapted no-core shell model (SA-NCSM) and two significant underlying symmetries, the symplectic Sp(3 , R) group and its deformation-related SU(3) subgroup. We review the broad scope of nuclei, where these symmetries have been found to play a key role-from the light p-shell systems, such as 6Li, 8B, 8Be, 12C, and 16O, and sd-shell nuclei exemplified by 20Ne, based on first-principle explorations; through the Hoyle state in 12C and enhanced collectivity in intermediate-mass nuclei, within a no-core shell-model perspective; up to strongly deformed species of the rare-earth and actinide regions, as investigated in earlier studies. A complementary picture, driven by symmetries dual to Sp(3 , R) , is also discussed. We briefly review symmetry-guided techniques that prove useful in various nuclear-theory models, such as Elliott model, ab initio SA-NCSM, symplectic model, pseudo- SU(3) and pseudo-symplectic models, ab initio hyperspherical harmonics method, ab initio lattice effective field theory, exact pairing-plus-shell model approaches, and cluster models, including the resonating-group method. Important implications of these approaches that have deepened our understanding of emergent phenomena in nuclei, such as enhanced

  13. North America Terrestrial Carbon Budget: A Model Analysis of the Combined Effects of CO2, Nitrogen, Climate, Land Use Changes and Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jain, A.; Yang, X.

    2009-05-01

    Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain present trends in the terrestrial uptake of CO2. These mechanisms include physiological responses of terrestrial ecosystems to increasing ambient CO2 concentrations, anthropogenic N deposition, and variations in productivity due to climate variability and changes in land-use and management. Each of these mechanisms may be playing a significant role in the global CO2 budget. In addition, changes in soil management can potentially increase the accumulation of soil organic carbon (SOC) in addition to anthropogenic disturbances, which include clearing of land for agriculture, conversion of forest to pasture, and harvest of forest products. We present the concurrent effects of all important ecosystem processes and anthropogenic disturbances and management practices on North America terrestrial carbon budget, for the historical period 1900-2000, using an Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), a geographically explicit advanced terrestrial ecosystem model which simulates the carbon and nitrogen fluxes to and from different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere with 0.5-by-0.5 degree spatial resolution.

  14. Hydrology and sediment budget of Los Laureles Canyon, Tijuana, MX: Modelling channel, gully, and rill erosion with 3D photo-reconstruction, CONCEPTS, and AnnAGNPS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taniguchi, Kristine; Gudiño, Napoleon; Biggs, Trent; Castillo, Carlos; Langendoen, Eddy; Bingner, Ron; Taguas, Encarnación; Liden, Douglas; Yuan, Yongping

    2015-04-01

    Several watersheds cross the US-Mexico boundary, resulting in trans-boundary environmental problems. Erosion in Tijuana, Mexico, increases the rate of sediment deposition in the Tijuana Estuary in the United States, altering the structure and function of the ecosystem. The well-being of residents in Tijuana is compromised by damage to infrastructure and homes built adjacent to stream channels, gully formation in dirt roads, and deposition of trash. We aim to understand the dominant source of sediment contributing to the sediment budget of the watershed (channel, gully, or rill erosion), where the hotspots of erosion are located, and what the impact of future planned and unplanned land use changes and Best Management Practices (BMPs) will be on sediment and storm flow. We will be using a mix of field methods, including 3D photo-reconstruction of stream channels, with two models, CONCEPTS and AnnAGNPS to constrain estimates of the sediment budget and impacts of land use change. Our research provides an example of how 3D photo-reconstruction and Structure from Motion (SfM) can be used to model channel evolution.

  15. Dimensional Reduction of Gauge Theories, Spontaneous Compactification and Model Building

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kubyshin, Yura A.; Mourao, Jose M.; Rudolph, Gerd; Volobujev, Igor P.

    This monograph presents in detail the reduction method for studying the unification of fundamental actions. The mathematical (differential geometrical) methods make extensive use of Lie Groups and the concept of homogeneous spaces. The main topic of the book is the dimensional reduction of pure Yang-Mills theories. A rather complete analysis of the structure of the scalar field potential is given and a general procedure for solving the equations of spontaneous compactification within Einstein-Yang-Mills systems is presented. The authors also discuss gravity and theories with fermions included and they review attempts to construct realistic models. The book presents the basic ideas and the calculations in detail and should be of interest to researchers and graduate students in mathematical physics.

  16. Energy budget of a propagating pulse in discrete and continuum fault models and its implications on models for scale dependence of strength

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heaton, T. H.; Elbanna, A. E.

    2009-12-01

    We study scale dependence of strength in dynamical systems failing at multiple length scales and its physical basis. We show that, for a spring block slider model, the strength defined as the energy per unit slip per unit rupture length decreases as a power law as the rupture length increases with the scaling exponent varying between 0 (the plastic limit) and -0.5 (the brittle limit). We conjecture that the physical basis of this scaling is in the pulse-like nature of the propagating rupture on velocity weakening (VW) interfaces which results in larger events having higher slip rates and lower dynamic friction. As a consequence, large amplitude slip pulses have less frictional work per unit slip (our definition of strength) than do small amplitude slip pulses. Since large amplitude pulses are also associated with long ruptures, the strength decreases with the physical size of the system. We investigate the energy budget in numerical simulations of the highly nonlinear multi-degree-of-freedom slider model. We construct an equation of motion (ODE) that approximately describes the spatial/temporal evolution of a slip pulse as it propagates along the slip surface. In order to extend this approach to an elastic continuum, we need to quantify the intrinsic energy of a slip pulse. We present a rational definition for the pulse energy based on the kinetic energy of the motions in the medium due to the propagating rupture. We study the spatial variation of the kinetic energy density for a slip pulse in a 2D anti-plane fault model and conclude that, for a given slip, the narrower the pulse the larger the kinetic energy associated with it and the smaller the region in which this energy is concentrated in. We also examine the relation between the pulse energy defined this way and the seismic radiated energy and propose an energy balance equation, analogous to the one derived for the spring block model, with the pulse energy as one of its components. Our future plans include

  17. Applications of queueing theory to stochastic models of gene expression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kulkarni, Rahul

    2012-02-01

    The intrinsic stochasticity of cellular processes implies that analysis of fluctuations (`noise') is often essential for quantitative modeling of gene expression. Recent single-cell experiments have carried out such analysis to characterize moments and entire probability distributions for quantities of interest, e.g. mRNA and protein levels across a population of cells. Correspondingly, there is a need to develop general analytical tools for modeling and interpretation of data obtained from such single-cell experiments. One such approach involves the mapping between models of stochastic gene expression and systems analyzed in queueing theory. The talk will provide an overview of this approach and discuss how theorems from queueing theory (e.g. Little's Law) can be used to derive exact results for general stochastic models of gene expression. In the limit that gene expression occurs in bursts, analytical results can be obtained which provide insight into the effects of different regulatory mechanisms on the noise in protein steady-state distributions. In particular, the approach can be used to analyze the effect of post-transcriptional regulation by non-coding RNAs leading to new insights and experimentally testable predictions.

  18. From Landau`s hydrodynamical model to field theory model to field theory models of multiparticle production: a tribute to Peter...

    SciTech Connect

    Cooper, F.

    1996-12-31

    We review the assumptions and domain of applicability of Landau`s Hydrodynamical Model. By considering two models of particle production, pair production from strong electric fields and particle production in the linear {sigma} model, we demonstrate that many of Landau`s ideas are verified in explicit field theory calculations.

  19. Continued development of modeling tools and theory for RF heating

    SciTech Connect

    1998-12-01

    Mission Research Corporation (MRC) is pleased to present the Department of Energy (DOE) with its renewal proposal to the Continued Development of Modeling Tools and Theory for RF Heating program. The objective of the program is to continue and extend the earlier work done by the proposed principal investigator in the field of modeling (Radio Frequency) RF heating experiments in the large tokamak fusion experiments, particularly the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) device located at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL). An integral part of this work is the investigation and, in some cases, resolution of theoretical issues which pertain to accurate modeling. MRC is nearing the successful completion of the specified tasks of the Continued Development of Modeling Tools and Theory for RF Heating project. The following tasks are either completed or nearing completion. (1) Anisotropic temperature and rotation upgrades; (2) Modeling for relativistic ECRH; (3) Further documentation of SHOOT and SPRUCE. As a result of the progress achieved under this project, MRC has been urged to continue this effort. Specifically, during the performance of this project two topics were identified by PPPL personnel as new applications of the existing RF modeling tools. These two topics concern (a) future fast-wave current drive experiments on the large tokamaks including TFTR and (c) the interpretation of existing and future RF probe data from TFTR. To address each of these topics requires some modification or enhancement of the existing modeling tools, and the first topic requires resolution of certain theoretical issues to produce self-consistent results. This work falls within the scope of the original project and is more suited to the project`s renewal than to the initiation of a new project.

  20. Adapting Structuration Theory as a Comprehensive Theory for Distance Education: The ASTIDE Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aktaruzzaman, Md; Plunkett, Margaret

    2016-01-01

    Distance Education (DE) theorists have argued about the requirement for a theory to be comprehensive in a way that can explicate many of the activities associated with DE. Currently, Transactional Distance Theory (TDT) (Moore, 1993) and the Theory of Instructional Dialogue (IDT) (Caspi & Gorsky, 2006) are the most prominent theories, yet they…

  1. A Well-Designed Budget Yields Long-Term Rewards.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pinola, Mary; Knirk, Frederick G.

    1984-01-01

    Defines zero-based budgeting, compares it to traditional budgeting, and discusses five steps of a zero-base budget model: determining organization's goals and refining them into objectives; listing activities to achieve objectives in decision packages; evaluating decision packages; ranking packages by order of importance; and funding decision…

  2. Toward PPBS: Program Budgeting in a Small School District.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Durstine, Richard M.; Howell, Robert A.

    This publication reports the results of the design and development of a planning programming budgeting system for the Milford, New Hampshire, school system. The authors attempted to develop a program oriented budget rather than a line item or input oriented budget, and a model adaptable for general applications. The order of priority budgeting…

  3. Integrating field measurements, a geomorphological map and stochastic modelling to estimate the spatially distributed rockfall sediment budget of the Upper Kaunertal, Austrian Central Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heckmann, Tobias; Hilger, Ludwig; Vehling, Lucas; Becht, Michael

    2016-05-01

    The estimation of catchment-scale rockfall rates relies on the regionalisation of local measurements. Here, we propose a new framework for such a regionalisation by the example of a case study in the Upper Kaunertal, Austrian Central Alps (62.5 km2). Measurements of rockfall deposition during 12 months onto six collector nets within the study area were combined with published mean annual rates from the literature, and a probability density function was fitted to these data. A numerical model involving a random walk routing scheme and a one-parameter friction model was used to simulate rockfall trajectories, starting from potential rockfall source areas that were delineated from a digital elevation model. Rockfall rates sampled from the fitted probability density function were assigned to these trajectories in order to model the spatial distribution and to estimate the amount of rockfall deposition. By recording all trajectories as edges of a network of raster cells, and by aggregating the latter to landforms (or landform types) as delineated in a geomorphological map of the study area, rockfall sediment flux from sources to different landforms could be quantified. Specifically, the geomorphic coupling of rockfall sources to storage landforms and the glacial and fluvial sediment cascade was investigated using this network model. The total rockfall contribution to the sediment budget of the Upper Kaunertal is estimated at c. 8000 Mg yr- 1, 16.5% of which is delivered to the glaciers, and hence to the proglacial zone. The network approach is favourable, for example because multiple scenarios (involving different probability density functions) can be calculated on the basis of the same set of trajectories, and because deposits can be back-linked to their respective sources. While the methodological framework constitutes the main aim of our paper, we also discuss how the estimation of the budget can be improved on the basis of spatially distributed production rates.

  4. A water-budget model and assessment of groundwater recharge for the Island of Hawaiʻi

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Engott, John A.

    2011-01-01

    Concern surrounding increasing demand for groundwater on the Island of Hawaiʻi, caused by a growing population and an increasing reliance on groundwater as a source for municipal and private water systems, has prompted a study of groundwater recharge on the island using the most current data and accepted methods. For this study, a daily water-budget model for the entire Island of Hawaiʻi was developed and used to estimate mean recharge for various land-cover and rainfall conditions, and a submodel for the Kona area was developed and used to estimate historical groundwater recharge in the Kona area during the period 1984–2008. Estimated mean annual recharge on the Island of Hawaiʻi is 6,594 million gallons per day, which is about 49 percent of mean annual rainfall. Recharge is highest on the windward slopes of Mauna Loa, below the tradewind inversion, and lowest on the leeward slopes of Kohala and Mauna Kea. Local recharge maxima also occur on (1) windward Kohala, with the exception of the northern tip, (2) windward Mauna Kea below the tradewind inversion, (3) windward Kīlauea, (4) the middle elevations of southeastern Mauna Loa, and (5) the lower-middle elevations of leeward Mauna Loa and southwestern Hualālai, in the Kona area. Local recharge minima also occur on (1) Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa, above the tradewind inversion, (2) the northern tip of Kohala, (3) leeward Kīlauea, (4) the southern tip of Mauna Loa, and (5) the northwestern slopes of Mauna Loa and Hualālai. In 18 of the 24 aquifer systems on the island, estimated mean annual recharge for baseline conditions was higher than the recharge estimates used in the 2008 State of Hawaiʻi Water Resource Protection Plan (2008 WRPP). Baseline conditions for this study were 2008 land cover and mean annual rainfall from the period 1916–1983. Estimates of recharge for the Māhukona, Waimea, and Hāwī aquifer systems, however, were between 29 and 38 percent lower than the 2008 WRPP estimates, mainly because

  5. Global carbon budget 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Quéré, C.; Peters, G. P.; Andres, R. J.; Andrew, R. M.; Boden, T. A.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Houghton, R. A.; Marland, G.; Moriarty, R.; Sitch, S.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Arvanitis, A.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Bopp, L.; Canadell, J. G.; Chini, L. P.; Doney, S. C.; Harper, A.; Harris, I.; House, J. I.; Jain, A. K.; Jones, S. D.; Kato, E.; Keeling, R. F.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Körtzinger, A.; Koven, C.; Lefèvre, N.; Maignan, F.; Omar, A.; Ono, T.; Park, G.-H.; Pfeil, B.; Poulter, B.; Raupach, M. R.; Regnier, P.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Schwinger, J.; Segschneider, J.; Stocker, B. D.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; van Heuven, S.; Viovy, N.; Wanninkhof, R.; Wiltshire, A.; Zaehle, S.

    2014-06-01

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003-2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr-1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr-1

  6. Modelling apical constriction in epithelia using elastic shell theory.

    PubMed

    Jones, Gareth Wyn; Chapman, S Jonathan

    2010-06-01

    Apical constriction is one of the fundamental mechanisms by which embryonic tissue is deformed, giving rise to the shape and form of the fully-developed organism. The mechanism involves a contraction of fibres embedded in the apical side of epithelial tissues, leading to an invagination or folding of the cell sheet. In this article the phenomenon is modelled mechanically by describing the epithelial sheet as an elastic shell, which contains a surface representing the continuous mesh formed from the embedded fibres. Allowing this mesh to contract, an enhanced shell theory is developed in which the stiffness and bending tensors of the shell are modified to include the fibres' stiffness, and in which the active effects of the contraction appear as body forces in the shell equilibrium equations. Numerical examples are presented at the end, including the bending of a plate and a cylindrical shell (modelling neurulation) and the invagination of a spherical shell (modelling simple gastrulation). PMID:19859751

  7. Dynamic statistical models of biological cognition: insights from communications theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wallace, Rodrick

    2014-10-01

    Maturana's cognitive perspective on the living state, Dretske's insight on how information theory constrains cognition, the Atlan/Cohen cognitive paradigm, and models of intelligence without representation, permit construction of a spectrum of dynamic necessary conditions statistical models of signal transduction, regulation, and metabolism at and across the many scales and levels of organisation of an organism and its context. Nonequilibrium critical phenomena analogous to physical phase transitions, driven by crosstalk, will be ubiquitous, representing not only signal switching, but the recruitment of underlying cognitive modules into tunable dynamic coalitions that address changing patterns of need and opportunity at all scales and levels of organisation. The models proposed here, while certainly providing much conceptual insight, should be most useful in the analysis of empirical data, much as are fitted regression equations.

  8. A queueing theory based model for business continuity in hospitals.

    PubMed

    Miniati, R; Cecconi, G; Dori, F; Frosini, F; Iadanza, E; Biffi Gentili, G; Niccolini, F; Gusinu, R

    2013-01-01

    Clinical activities can be seen as results of precise and defined events' succession where every single phase is characterized by a waiting time which includes working duration and possible delay. Technology makes part of this process. For a proper business continuity management, planning the minimum number of devices according to the working load only is not enough. A risk analysis on the whole process should be carried out in order to define which interventions and extra purchase have to be made. Markov models and reliability engineering approaches can be used for evaluating the possible interventions and to protect the whole system from technology failures. The following paper reports a case study on the application of the proposed integrated model, including risk analysis approach and queuing theory model, for defining the proper number of device which are essential to guarantee medical activity and comply the business continuity management requirements in hospitals. PMID:24109839

  9. Radiative Transfer Theory Applied to Ocean Bottom Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quijano, Jorge Eduardo

    Research on the propagation of acoustic waves in ocean bottom sediment is of interest for active sonar applications such as target detection and remote sensing. Currently, all seabed scattering models available in the literature are based on the full solution of the wave equation, which sometimes leads to mathematically intractable problems. In the electromagnetics community, an alternative formulation that overcomes some of this complexity is radiative transfer theory, which has established itself as an important technique for remote sensing. In this work, radiative transfer (RT) theory is proposed for the first time as a tool for the study of seabed acoustic scattering. The focus of this work is the development of a complete model for the interaction of acoustic energy with water-saturated sediments. The general geometry considered in this study consists of multiple elastic layers containing random distributions of inhomogeneities. The accuracy of the proposed model is assessed by rigorous experimental work, with data collected from random media in which acoustic properties such as the concentration and size of scatterers, background material, and the presence of elastic boundaries are controlled parameters. First, the ultrasound RT model is implemented for layers of finite thickness. The range of applicability of the proposed model is then illustrated using scaled experiments conducted at the Northwest Electromagnetics and Acoustics Research Laboratory (NEAR-Lab). Next, the model is applied to field data collected in a region with gassy sediments and compared to the formulation originally used to explain these data. Finally, insight into the emerging area of study of the time-dependent RT formulation is presented, and its role in the representation of finite broadband pulses is discussed.

  10. Quantifying the impacts of land surface schemes and dynamic vegetation on the model dependency of projected changes in surface energy and water budgets

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Yu, Miao; Wang, Guiling; Chen, Haishan

    2016-03-01

    Assessing and quantifying the uncertainties in projected future changes of energy and water budgets over land surface are important steps toward improving our confidence in climate change projections. In our study, the contribution of land surface models to the inter-GCM variation of projected future changes in land surface energy and water fluxes are assessed based on output from 19 global climate models (GCMs) and offline Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) simulations driven by meteorological forcing from the 19 GCMs. Similar offline simulations using CLM4 with its dynamic vegetation submodel are also conducted to investigate how dynamic vegetation feedback, amore » process that is being added to more earth system models, may amplify or moderate the intermodel variations of projected future changes. Projected changes are quantified as the difference between the 2081–2100 period from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) future experiment and the 1981–2000 period from the historical simulation. Under RCP8.5, projected changes in surface water and heat fluxes show a high degree of model dependency across the globe. Although precipitation is very likely to increase in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, a high degree of model-related uncertainty exists for evapotranspiration, soil water content, and surface runoff, suggesting discrepancy among land surface models (LSMs) in simulating the surface hydrological processes and snow-related processes. Large model-related uncertainties for the surface water budget also exist in the Tropics including southeastern South America and Central Africa. Moreover, these uncertainties would be reduced in the hypothetical scenario of a single near-perfect land surface model being used across all GCMs, suggesting the potential to reduce uncertainties through the use of more consistent approaches toward land surface model development. Under such a scenario, the most significant reduction is likely to

  11. Quantifying the impacts of land surface schemes and dynamic vegetation on the model dependency of projected changes in surface energy and water budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Miao; Wang, Guiling; Chen, Haishan

    2016-03-01

    Assessing and quantifying the uncertainties in projected future changes of energy and water budgets over land surface are important steps toward improving our confidence in climate change projections. In this study, the contribution of land surface models to the inter-GCM variation of projected future changes in land surface energy and water fluxes are assessed based on output from 19 global climate models (GCMs) and offline Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) simulations driven by meteorological forcing from the 19 GCMs. Similar offline simulations using CLM4 with its dynamic vegetation submodel are also conducted to investigate how dynamic vegetation feedback, a process that is being added to more earth system models, may amplify or moderate the intermodel variations of projected future changes. Projected changes are quantified as the difference between the 2081-2100 period from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) future experiment and the 1981-2000 period from the historical simulation. Under RCP8.5, projected changes in surface water and heat fluxes show a high degree of model dependency across the globe. Although precipitation is very likely to increase in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, a high degree of model-related uncertainty exists for evapotranspiration, soil water content, and surface runoff, suggesting discrepancy among land surface models (LSMs) in simulating the surface hydrological processes and snow-related processes. Large model-related uncertainties for the surface water budget also exist in the Tropics including southeastern South America and Central Africa. These uncertainties would be reduced in the hypothetical scenario of a single near-perfect land surface model being used across all GCMs, suggesting the potential to reduce uncertainties through the use of more consistent approaches toward land surface model development. Under such a scenario, the most significant reduction is likely to be seen in the

  12. Budgeting Approaches in Community Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Palmer, James C.

    2014-01-01

    Several budgeting approaches have been initiated as alternatives to the traditional, incremental process. These include formula budgeting; zero-base budgeting; planning, programming, and budgeting systems; and responsibility center budgeting. Each is premised on assumptions about how organizations might best make resource allocation decisions.…

  13. Multiagent model and mean field theory of complex auction dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Qinghua; Huang, Zi-Gang; Wang, Yougui; Lai, Ying-Cheng

    2015-09-01

    Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in analyzing a variety of socio-economic phenomena using methods from statistical and nonlinear physics. We study a class of complex systems arising from economics, the lowest unique bid auction (LUBA) systems, which is a recently emerged class of online auction game systems. Through analyzing large, empirical data sets of LUBA, we identify a general feature of the bid price distribution: an inverted J-shaped function with exponential decay in the large bid price region. To account for the distribution, we propose a multi-agent model in which each agent bids stochastically in the field of winner’s attractiveness, and develop a theoretical framework to obtain analytic solutions of the model based on mean field analysis. The theory produces bid-price distributions that are in excellent agreement with those from the real data. Our model and theory capture the essential features of human behaviors in the competitive environment as exemplified by LUBA, and may provide significant quantitative insights into complex socio-economic phenomena.

  14. Assembly models for Papovaviridae based on tiling theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keef, T.; Taormina, A.; Twarock, R.

    2005-09-01

    A vital constituent of a virus is its protein shell, called the viral capsid, that encapsulates and hence provides protection for the viral genome. Assembly models are developed for viral capsids built from protein building blocks that can assume different local bonding structures in the capsid. This situation occurs, for example, for viruses in the family of Papovaviridae, which are linked to cancer and are hence of particular interest for the health sector. More specifically, the viral capsids of the (pseudo-) T = 7 particles in this family consist of pentamers that exhibit two different types of bonding structures. While this scenario cannot be described mathematically in terms of Caspar-Klug theory (Caspar D L D and Klug A 1962 Cold Spring Harbor Symp. Quant. Biol. 27 1), it can be modelled via tiling theory (Twarock R 2004 J. Theor. Biol. 226 477). The latter is used to encode the local bonding environment of the building blocks in a combinatorial structure, called the assembly tree, which is a basic ingredient in the derivation of assembly models for Papovaviridae along the lines of the equilibrium approach of Zlotnick (Zlotnick A 1994 J. Mol. Biol. 241 59). A phase space formalism is introduced to characterize the changes in the assembly pathways and intermediates triggered by the variations in the association energies characterizing the bonds between the building blocks in the capsid. Furthermore, the assembly pathways and concentrations of the statistically dominant assembly intermediates are determined. The example of Simian virus 40 is discussed in detail.

  15. Assembly models for Papovaviridae based on tiling theory.

    PubMed

    Keef, T; Taormina, A; Twarock, R

    2005-09-01

    A vital constituent of a virus is its protein shell, called the viral capsid, that encapsulates and hence provides protection for the viral genome. Assembly models are developed for viral capsids built from protein building blocks that can assume different local bonding structures in the capsid. This situation occurs, for example, for viruses in the family of Papovaviridae, which are linked to cancer and are hence of particular interest for the health sector. More specifically, the viral capsids of the (pseudo-) T = 7 particles in this family consist of pentamers that exhibit two different types of bonding structures. While this scenario cannot be described mathematically in terms of Caspar-Klug theory (Caspar D L D and Klug A 1962 Cold Spring Harbor Symp. Quant. Biol. 27 1), it can be modelled via tiling theory (Twarock R 2004 J. Theor. Biol. 226 477). The latter is used to encode the local bonding environment of the building blocks in a combinatorial structure, called the assembly tree, which is a basic ingredient in the derivation of assembly models for Papovaviridae along the lines of the equilibrium approach of Zlotnick (Zlotnick A 1994 J. Mol. Biol. 241 59). A phase space formalism is introduced to characterize the changes in the assembly pathways and intermediates triggered by the variations in the association energies characterizing the bonds between the building blocks in the capsid. Furthermore, the assembly pathways and concentrations of the statistically dominant assembly intermediates are determined. The example of Simian virus 40 is discussed in detail. PMID:16224123

  16. Multi-unit auctions with budget-constrained bidders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, Gagan Pratap

    assumptions, there always exist bidder-types who submit unequal bids in equilibrium, (2) the equilibrium is monotonic in the sense that bidders with higher valuations prefer more unequal splits of their budgets than bidders with lower valuations and the same budget-level. With a formal theory in place, I carry out a quantitative exercise, using data from the 1970 OCS auction. I show that the model is able to match many aspects of the data. (1) In the data, the number of tracts bidders submit bids on is positively correlated with budgets (an R2 of 0.84), even though this relationship is non-monotonic; my model is able to capture this non-monotonicity, while producing an R2 of 0.89 (2) In the data, the average number of bids per tract is 8.21; for the model, this number is 10.09. (3) Auction revenue in the data was 1.927 billion; the model produced a mean revenue of 1.944 billion.

  17. Budgeting Based on Results

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooper, Kelt L.

    2011-01-01

    Every program in a school or school district has, or once had, a purpose. The purpose was most likely promoted, argued and debated among school constituencies--parents, teachers, administrators and school board members--before it was eventually approved. This process occurs year after year, budget after budget. In itself, this is not necessarily a…

  18. Taming the Budget Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Slosson, James

    2000-01-01

    Ideally, school budgeting should be divided into distinct rational steps: educating staff about budgets, determining the building allocation, setting education goals for upcoming years, determining fixed costs and sharing this information, making requests public, building a cash reserve, and determining and publishing final allocations. (MLH)

  19. Budgeting in Nonprofit Organizations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Lauren

    1985-01-01

    This description of the role of budgets in nonprofit organizations uses libraries as an example. Four types of budgets--legislative, management, cash, and capital--are critiqued in terms of cost effectiveness, implementation, and facilitation of organizational control and objectives. (CLB)

  20. Colorado Children's Budget 2010

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Colorado Children's Campaign, 2010

    2010-01-01

    The "Children's Budget 2010" is intended to be a resource guide for policymakers and advocates who are interested in better understanding how Colorado funds children's programs and services. It attempts to clarify often confusing budget information and describe where the state's investment trends are and where those trends will lead the state if…