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Sample records for california earthquake sequence

  1. The 1936, 1945-1947, and 1950 earthquake sequences near Lassen Peak, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Norris, R.D.; Weaver, C.S.

    1997-01-01

    Three vigorous earthquake sequences occurred near Lassen Peak in 1936, between 1945 and 1947, and in 1950; the latter two sequences included mainshocks of magnitude 5.0 and 5.5, respectively, and thousands of smaller events. No comparable earthquake sequences have occurred near Lassen Peak since 1950. The epicentral area lies within 20 km of the southern boundary of Lassen Volcanic National Park, in a northwest striking seismic zone that extends from Lake Tahoe to the vicinity of Mount Shasta. In comparing their time history and magnitude distribution with other earthquake sequences that have occurred in regions of Cenozoic volcanism within and east of the Cascade Range and the Sierra Nevada, we find that the Lassen earthquake sequences show similar characteristics to two earthquake sequences that occurred on Basin and Range faults near Herlong, California, and Klamath Falls, Oregon. We interpret this similarity as evidence that the Lassen earthquakes were caused by Basin and Range extension and may have occurred on one or more Basin and Range faults in the Lassen region. However, the limitations of the data do not allow other possible sources, such as magmatic injection, to be ruled out. The most important implication of the Lassen earthquake sequences is that earthquakes of M 5 or greater may occur in the Lassen region, perhaps quite close to Lassen Peak or other volcanoes. The record of Holocene volcanism and fault displacements in the region indicates that earthquake sequences driven by either tectonic or magmatic processes may occur near Lassen Peak, and any significant earthquake sequence should be carefully monitored to assess its nature.

  2. The 1979 Homestead Valley earthquake sequence, California: control of aftershocks and postseismic deformation.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stein, R.S.; Lisowski, M.

    1983-01-01

    The coseismic slip and geometry of the March 15, 1979, Homestead Valley, California, earthquake sequence are well constrained by precise horizontal and vertical geodetic observations and by data from a dense local seismic network. These observations indicate 0.52 + or - 0.10 m of right-lateral slip and 0.17 + or - 0.04 m of reverse slip on a buried vertical 6-km-long and 5-km-deep fault and yield a mean static stress drop of 7.2 + or -1.3 MPa. The largest shock had Ms = 5.6. Observations of the ground rupture revealed up to 0.1 m of right-lateral slip on two mapped faults that are subparallel to the modeled seismic slip plane. In the 1.9 years since the earthquakes, geodetic network displacements indicate that an additional 60+ or -10 mm of postseismic creep took place. The rate of postseismic shear strain (0.53 + or - 0.13 mu rad/yr) measured within a 30 X 30-km network centered on the principal events was anomalously high compared to its preearthquake value and the postseismic rate in the adjacent network. This transient cannot be explained by postseismic slip on the seismic fault but rather indicates that broadside release of strain followed the earthquake sequence. -Authors

  3. Earthquake education in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    MacCabe, M. P.

    1980-01-01

    In a survey of community response to the earthquake threat in southern California, Ralph Turner and his colleagues in the Department of Sociology at the University of California, Los Angeles, found that the public very definitely wants to be educated about the kinds of problems and hazards they can expect during and after a damaging earthquake; and they also want to know how they can prepare themselves to minimize their vulnerability. Decisionmakers, too, are recognizing this new wave of public concern. 

  4. Behavior of Repeating Earthquake Sequences in Central California and the Implications for Subsurface Fault Creep

    SciTech Connect

    Templeton, D C; Nadeau, R; Burgmann, R

    2007-07-09

    Repeating earthquakes (REs) are sequences of events that have nearly identical waveforms and are interpreted to represent fault asperities driven to failure by loading from aseismic creep on the surrounding fault surface at depth. We investigate the occurrence of these REs along faults in central California to determine which faults exhibit creep and the spatio-temporal distribution of this creep. At the juncture of the San Andreas and southern Calaveras-Paicines faults, both faults as well as a smaller secondary fault, the Quien Sabe fault, are observed to produce REs over the observation period of March 1984-May 2005. REs in this area reflect a heterogeneous creep distribution along the fault plane with significant variations in time. Cumulative slip over the observation period at individual sequence locations is determined to range from 5.5-58.2 cm on the San Andreas fault, 4.8-14.1 cm on the southern Calaveras-Paicines fault, and 4.9-24.8 cm on the Quien Sabe fault. Creep at depth appears to mimic the behaviors seen of creep on the surface in that evidence of steady slip, triggered slip, and episodic slip phenomena are also observed in the RE sequences. For comparison, we investigate the occurrence of REs west of the San Andreas fault within the southern Coast Range. Events within these RE sequences only occurred minutes to weeks apart from each other and then did not repeat again over the observation period, suggesting that REs in this area are not produced by steady aseismic creep of the surrounding fault surface.

  5. Analysis of Foreshock Sequences in California and Implications for Earthquake Triggering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Xiaowei; Shearer, Peter M.

    2016-01-01

    We analyze foreshock activity in California and compare observations with simulated catalogs based on a branching aftershock-triggering model. We first examine foreshock occurrence patterns for isolated M ≥ 5 earthquakes in southern California from 1981 to 2011 and in northern California from 1984 to 2009. Among the 64 M ≥ 5 mainshocks, excluding 3 swarms and 3 doubles, 53 % of the rest are preceded by at least one foreshock within 30 days and 5 km. Foreshock occurrence appears correlated with mainshock faulting type and depth. Foreshock area is correlated with the magnitude of the largest foreshock and the number of foreshocks, however, it is not correlated with mainshock magnitude. We then examine the occurrence pattern of all seismicity clusters without a minimum magnitude requirement, and the possibility that they are "foreshocks" of larger mainshocks. Only about 30 % of the small clusters lead to a larger cluster. About 66 % of the larger clusters have foreshock activities, and the spatial distribution pattern is similar to M ≥ 5 mainshocks, with lower occurrence rates in the Transverse Range and central California and higher occurrence rates in the Eastern California Shear Zone and the Bay Area. These results suggest that foreshock occurrence is largely controlled by the regional tectonic stress field and fault zone properties. In special cases, foreshock occurrence may be useful for short-term forecasting; however, foreshock properties are not reliably predictive of the magnitude of the eventual "mainshock". Comparison with simulated catalogs suggest that the "swarmy" features and foreshock occurrence rate in the observed catalogs are not well reproduced from common statistical models of earthquake triggering.

  6. The 1998 earthquake sequence south of Long Valley Caldera, California: Hints of magmatic involvement

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.; Dollar, R.S.; Johnson, P.

    2000-01-01

    A significant episode of seismic and geodetic unrest took place at Long Valley Caldera, California, beginning in the summer of 1997. Activity through late May of 1998 was concentrated in and around the south moat and the south margin of the resurgent dome. The Sierran Nevada block (SNB) region to the south/southeast remained relatively quiet until a M 5.1 event occurred there on 9 June 1998 (UT). A second M 5.1 event followed on 15 July (UT); both events were followed by appreciable aftershock sequences. An additional, distinct burst of activity began on 1 August 1998. The number of events in the August sequence (over the first week or two) was similar to the aftershock sequence of the 15 July 1998 M 5.1 event, but the later sequence was not associated with any events larger than M 4.3. All of the summer 1998 SNB activity was considered tectonic rather than magmatic; in general the SNB is considered an unlikely location for future eruptions. However, the August sequence-an 'aftershock sequence without a mainshock'-is suggestive of a strain event larger than the cumulative seismotectonic strain release. Moreover, a careful examination of waveforms from the August sequence reveals a small handful of events whose spectral signature is strikingly harmonic. We investigate the waveforms of these events using spectral, autocorrelation, and empirical Green's function techniques and conclude that they were most likely associated with a fluid-controlled source. Our observations suggest that there may have been some degree of magma or magma-derived fluid involvement in the 1998 SNB sequence.

  7. WGCEP Historical California Earthquake Catalog

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Felzer, Karen R.; Cao, Tianqing

    2008-01-01

    This appendix provides an earthquake catalog for California and the surrounding area. Our goal is to provide a listing for all known M > 5.5 earthquakes that occurred from 1850-1932 and all known M > 4.0 earthquakes that occurred from 1932-2006 within the region of 31.0 to 43.0 degrees North and -126.0 to -114.0 degrees West. Some pre-1932 earthquakes 4 5, before the Northern California network was online. Some earthquakes from 1900-1932, and particularly from 1910-1932 are also based on instrumental readings, but the quality of the instrumental record and the resulting analysis are much less precise than for later listings. A partial exception is for some of the largest earthquakes, such as the San Francisco earthquake of April 18, 1906, for which global teleseismic records (Wald et al. 1993) and geodetic measurements (Thatcher et al. 1906) have been used to help determine magnitudes.

  8. Active Crustal Deformation in the Area of San Carlos, Baja California Sur, Mexico as Shown by Data of Local Earthquake Sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munguía, Luis; González-Escobar, Mario; Navarro, Miguel; Valdez, Tito; Mayer, Sergio; Aguirre, Alfredo; Wong, Victor; Luna, Manuel

    2015-12-01

    We analyzed earthquakes of sequences that occurred at different times near San Carlos, a town of approximately 5000 inhabitants. The seismic sequences happened during March-April 1989, October 2000-June 2001, and 5-15 February 2004 at about 200 km west of the Pacific-North America plate boundary. The strong shaking from initial earthquakes of the first two sequences prompted the installation of temporary seismic stations in the area. With data recorded by these stations, we found an earthquake distribution that is consistent with the northwest segment of the Santa Margarita fault. Both the focal depth, that seemed to increase in E-NE direction, and a composite fault-plane solution, obtained from polarity data of the small earthquakes, were also consistent with the main characteristics of that fault. We also found that our normal-faulting mechanism (east side down) was quite similar to centroid moment tensor solutions for earthquakes with M w 5.4 and 5.3 that occurred in the area in February 2004. It is likely, then, that these larger earthquakes also occurred along the Santa Margarita Fault. To get some insight into the regional stress pattern, we compared the above mechanisms with mechanisms reported for other earthquakes of the Pacific margin of Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California regions. We observed that focal mechanisms of the two regions have T axes of stress that plunge sub horizontally in E-NE average direction. The corresponding P axes have N-NW average trend, but for the Pacific earthquakes these axes plunge at angles that are ~35° larger than those for the Gulf earthquakes. These more vertically inclined P axes of compressive stress mean substantial oblique fault motions. The mixture of oblique and strike-slip components of fault motions, as the focal mechanisms show, confirms a transtensional stress regime for the region. Before this research, we knew little about the seismicity and styles of faulting in the area. Now we know that

  9. Active Crustal Deformation in the Area of San Carlos, Baja California Sur, Mexico as Shown by Data of Local Earthquake Sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munguía, Luis; González-Escobar, Mario; Navarro, Miguel; Valdez, Tito; Mayer, Sergio; Aguirre, Alfredo; Wong, Victor; Luna, Manuel

    2016-10-01

    We analyzed earthquakes of sequences that occurred at different times near San Carlos, a town of approximately 5000 inhabitants. The seismic sequences happened during March-April 1989, October 2000-June 2001, and 5-15 February 2004 at about 200 km west of the Pacific-North America plate boundary. The strong shaking from initial earthquakes of the first two sequences prompted the installation of temporary seismic stations in the area. With data recorded by these stations, we found an earthquake distribution that is consistent with the northwest segment of the Santa Margarita fault. Both the focal depth, that seemed to increase in E-NE direction, and a composite fault-plane solution, obtained from polarity data of the small earthquakes, were also consistent with the main characteristics of that fault. We also found that our normal-faulting mechanism (east side down) was quite similar to centroid moment tensor solutions for earthquakes with M w 5.4 and 5.3 that occurred in the area in February 2004. It is likely, then, that these larger earthquakes also occurred along the Santa Margarita Fault. To get some insight into the regional stress pattern, we compared the above mechanisms with mechanisms reported for other earthquakes of the Pacific margin of Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California regions. We observed that focal mechanisms of the two regions have T axes of stress that plunge sub horizontally in E-NE average direction. The corresponding P axes have N-NW average trend, but for the Pacific earthquakes these axes plunge at angles that are ~35° larger than those for the Gulf earthquakes. These more vertically inclined P axes of compressive stress mean substantial oblique fault motions. The mixture of oblique and strike-slip components of fault motions, as the focal mechanisms show, confirms a transtensional stress regime for the region. Before this research, we knew little about the seismicity and styles of faulting in the area. Now we know that

  10. Earthquake hazard after a mainshock in california.

    PubMed

    Reasenberg, P A; Jones, L M

    1989-03-01

    After a strong earthquake, the possibility of the occurrence of either significant aftershocks or an even stronger mainshock is a continuing hazard that threatens the resumption of critical services and reoccupation of essential but partially damaged structures. A stochastic parametric model allows determination of probabilities for aftershocks and larger mainshocks during intervals following the mainshock. The probabilities depend strongly on the model parameters, which are estimated with Bayesian statistics from both the ongoing aftershock sequence and from a suite of historic California aftershock sequences. Probabilities for damaging aftershocks and greater mainshocks are typically well-constrained after the first day of the sequence, with accuracy increasing with time.

  11. Stress Drops for Potentially Induced Earthquake Sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Y.; Beroza, G. C.; Ellsworth, W. L.

    2015-12-01

    Stress drop, the difference between shear stress acting across a fault before and after an earthquake, is a fundamental parameter of the earthquake source process and the generation of strong ground motions. Higher stress drops usually lead to more high-frequency ground motions. Hough [2014 and 2015] observed low intensities in "Did You Feel It?" data for injection-induced earthquakes, and interpreted them to be a result of low stress drops. It is also possible that the low recorded intensities could be a result of propagation effects. Atkinson et al. [2015] show that the shallow depth of injection-induced earthquakes can lead to a lack of high-frequency ground motion as well. We apply the spectral ratio method of Imanishi and Ellsworth [2006] to analyze stress drops of injection-induced earthquakes, using smaller earthquakes with similar waveforms as empirical Green's functions (eGfs). Both the effects of path and linear site response should be cancelled out through the spectral ratio analysis. We apply this technique to the Guy-Greenbrier earthquake sequence in central Arkansas. The earthquakes migrated along the Guy-Greenbrier Fault while nearby injection wells were operating in 2010-2011. Huang and Beroza [GRL, 2015] improved the magnitude of completeness to about -1 using template matching and found that the earthquakes deviated from Gutenberg-Richter statistics during the operation of nearby injection wells. We identify 49 clusters of highly similar events in the Huang and Beroza [2015] catalog and calculate stress drops using the source model described in Imanishi and Ellsworth [2006]. Our results suggest that stress drops of the Guy-Greenbrier sequence are similar to tectonic earthquakes at Parkfield, California (the attached figure). We will also present stress drop analysis of other suspected induced earthquake sequences using the same method.

  12. Winnetka deformation zone: Surface expression of coactive slip on a blind fault during the Northridge earthquake sequence, California. Evidence that coactive faulting occurred in the Canoga Park, Winnetka, and Northridge areas during the 17 January 1994, Northridge, California earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Cruikshank, K.M.; Johnson, A.M.; Fleming, R.W.; Jones, R.L.

    1996-12-31

    Measurements of normalized length changes of streets over an area of 9 km{sup 2} in San Fernando Valley of Los Angeles, California, define a distinctive strain pattern that may well reflect blind faulting during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Strain magnitudes are about 3 {times} 10{sup {minus}4}, locally 10{sup {minus}3}. They define a deformation zone trending diagonally from near Canoga Park in the southwest, through Winnetka, to near Northridge in the northeast. The deformation zone is about 4.5 km long and 1 km wide. The northwestern two-thirds of the zone is a belt of extension of streets, and the southeastern one-third is a belt of shortening of streets. On the northwest and southeast sides of the deformation zone the magnitude of the strains is too small to measure, less than 10{sup {minus}4}. Complete states of strain measured in the northeastern half of the deformation zone show that the directions of principal strains are parallel and normal to the walls of the zone, so the zone is not a strike-slip zone. The magnitudes of strains measured in the northeastern part of the Winnetka area were large enough to fracture concrete and soils, and the area of larger strains correlates with the area of greater damage to such roads and sidewalks. All parts of the pattern suggest a blind fault at depth, most likely a reverse fault dipping northwest but possibly a normal fault dipping southeast. The magnitudes of the strains in the Winnetka area are consistent with the strains produced at the ground surface by a blind fault plane extending to depth on the order of 2 km and a net slip on the order of 1 m, within a distance of about 100 to 500 m of the ground surface. The pattern of damage in the San Fernando Valley suggests a fault segment much longer than the 4.5 km defined by survey data in the Winnetka area. The blind fault segment may extend several kilometers in both directions beyond the Winnetka area. This study of the Winnetka area further supports

  13. Static-stress impact of the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence on nucleation and slip at the site of the 1999 M=7.1 Hector Mine earthquake, southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, Tom; Dreger, Douglas S.

    2000-01-01

    The proximity in time (∼7 years) and space (∼20 km) between the 1992 M=7.3 Landers earthquake and the 1999 M=7.1 Hector Mine event suggests a possible link between the quakes. We thus calculated the static stress changes following the 1992 Joshua Tree/Landers/Big Bear earthquake sequence on the 1999 M=7.1 Hector Mine rupture plane in southern California. Resolving the stress tensor into rake-parallel and fault-normal components and comparing with changes in the post-Landers seismicity rate allows us to estimate a coefficient of friction on the Hector Mine plane. Seismicity following the 1992 sequence increased at Hector Mine where the fault was unclamped. This increase occurred despite a calculated reduction in right-lateral shear stress. The dependence of seismicity change primarily on normal stress change implies a high coefficient of static friction (µ≥0.8). We calculated the Coulomb stress change using µ=0.8 and found that the Hector Mine hypocenter was mildly encouraged (0.5 bars) by the 1992 earthquake sequence. In addition, the region of peak slip during the Hector Mine quake occurred where Coulomb stress is calculated to have increased by 0.5–1.5 bars. In general, slip was more limited where Coulomb stress was reduced, though there was some slip where the strongest stress decrease was calculated. Interestingly, many smaller earthquakes nucleated at or near the 1999 Hector Mine hypocenter after 1992, but only in 1999 did an event spread to become a M=7.1 earthquake.

  14. Description of earthquake sequences using complex network theory: the cases of Italy (L'Aquila, 2009) and Southern California (Baja, 2010)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daskalaki, E.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Minadakis, G.; Spiliotis, K.; Siettos, C.

    2013-12-01

    Complex networks pertain to the structure of many real-world systems influencing their dynamics. Earthquakes are a highly complex natural process that develops in the space-time-size domains given that the state of the seismogenic layer of the Earth is characterized by self-organized criticality. Over the last years, complex network theory was tested as a tool to quantify the topological characteristics of seismic activity aiming to investigate possible correlation patterns between earthquakes. With the aid of complex network theory, we have analyzed foreshock and aftershock sequences associated with the mainshocks of L'Aquila (Italy), 6th April 2009, Mw=6.3, and of Baja (Southern California) 4th April 2010, Mw=7.2. After testing the catalogues for data completeness on the basis of the magnitude-frequency relationship, we selected magnitude cut-off of 1.3 and 1.0, respectively. We constructed the underlying network that describes the evolution of the two sequences in space and extracted the statistical properties of the underlying topology resulting in characteristic scale-free and small-world structures. We found that the corresponding earthquake networks form a scale-free degree distribution and we computed their basic statistical measures, such as the Average Clustering Coefficient, Mean Path Length and Entropy. Taking into account a spatio-temporal sensitivity analysis, we found that the statistical measures of the two networks change considerably before and after the two main shocks, thus underlying the space-time clustering of the sequences. Our findings are in agreement with the ones obtained by using well established classical methods of statistical seismology. Thus, we believe that the proposed approach has the potential to serve as a supplementary or stand-alone methodology towards the better assessment of seismicity clusters

  15. Coseismic fault slip associated with the 1992 M(sub w) 6.1 Joshua Tree, California, earthquake: Implications for the Joshua Tree-Landers earthquake sequence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bennett, Richard A.; Reilinger, Robert E.; Rodi, William; Li, Yingping; Toksoz, M. Nafi; Hudnut, Ken

    1995-01-01

    Coseismic surface deformation associated with the M(sub w) 6.1, April 23, 1992, Joshua Tree earthquake is well represented by estimates of geodetic monument displacements at 20 locations independently derived from Global Positioning System and trilateration measurements. The rms signal to noise ratio for these inferred displacements is 1.8 with near-fault displacement estimates exceeding 40 mm. In order to determine the long-wavelength distribution of slip over the plane of rupture, a Tikhonov regularization operator is applied to these estimates which minimizes stress variability subject to purely right-lateral slip and zero surface slip constraints. The resulting slip distribution yields a geodetic moment estimate of 1.7 x 10(exp 18) N m with corresponding maximum slip around 0.8 m and compares well with independent and complementary information including seismic moment and source time function estimates and main shock and aftershock locations. From empirical Green's functions analyses, a rupture duration of 5 s is obtained which implies a rupture radius of 6-8 km. Most of the inferred slip lies to the north of the hypocenter, consistent with northward rupture propagation. Stress drop estimates are in the range of 2-4 MPa. In addition, predicted Coulomb stress increases correlate remarkably well with the distribution of aftershock hypocenters; most of the aftershocks occur in areas for which the mainshock rupture produced stress increases larger than about 0.1 MPa. In contrast, predicted stress changes are near zero at the hypocenter of the M(sub w) 7.3, June 28, 1992, Landers earthquake which nucleated about 20 km beyond the northernmost edge of the Joshua Tree rupture. Based on aftershock migrations and the predicted static stress field, we speculate that redistribution of Joshua Tree-induced stress perturbations played a role in the spatio-temporal development of the earth sequence culminating in the Landers event.

  16. Estimation of Future Earthquake Losses in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rowshandel, B.; Wills, C. J.; Cao, T.; Reichle, M.; Branum, D.

    2003-12-01

    Recent developments in earthquake hazards and damage modeling, computing, and data management and processing, have made it possible to develop estimates of the levels of damage from earthquakes that may be expected in the future in California. These developments have been mostly published in the open literature, and provide an opportunity to estimate the levels of earthquake damage Californians can expect to suffer during the next several decades. Within the past 30 years, earthquake losses have increased dramatically, mostly because our exposure to earthquake hazards has increased. All but four of the recent damaging earthquakes have occurred distant from California's major population centers. Two, the Loma Prieta earthquake and the San Fernando earthquake, occurred on the edges of major populated areas. Loma Prieta caused significant damage in the nearby Santa Cruz and in the more distant, heavily populated, San Francisco Bay area. The 1971 San Fernando earthquake had an epicenter in the lightly populated San Gabriel Mountains, but caused slightly over 2 billion dollars in damage in the Los Angeles area. As urban areas continue to expand, the population and infrastructure at risk increases. When earthquakes occur closer to populated areas, damage is more significant. The relatively minor Whittier Narrows earthquake of 1987 caused over 500 million dollars in damage because it occurred in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, not at its fringes. The Northridge earthquake had fault rupture directly beneath the San Fernando Valley, and caused about 46 billion dollars in damage. This vast increase in damage from the San Fernando earthquake reflected both the location of the earthquake directly beneath the populated area and the 23 years of continued development and resulting greater exposure to potential damage. We have calculated losses from potential future earthquake, both as scenarios of potential earthquakes and as annualized losses considering all the potential

  17. Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jones, L.M.; Reasenberg, P.A.

    2005-01-01

    Despite a lack of reliable deterministic earthquake precursors, seismologists have significant predictive information about earthquake activity from an increasingly accurate understanding of the clustering properties of earthquakes. In the past 15 years, time-dependent earthquake probabilities based on a generic short-term clustering model have been made publicly available in near-real time during major earthquake sequences. These forecasts describe the probability and number of events that are, on average, likely to occur following a mainshock of a given magnitude, but are not tailored to the particular sequence at hand and contain no information about the likely locations of the aftershocks. Our model builds upon the basic principles of this generic forecast model in two ways: it recasts the forecast in terms of the probability of strong ground shaking, and it combines an existing time-independent earthquake occurrence model based on fault data and historical earthquakes with increasingly complex models describing the local time-dependent earthquake clustering. The result is a time-dependent map showing the probability of strong shaking anywhere in California within the next 24 hours. The seismic hazard modelling approach we describe provides a better understanding of time-dependent earthquake hazard, and increases its usefulness for the public, emergency planners and the media.

  18. The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,

    2008-01-01

    California?s 35 million people live among some of the most active earthquake faults in the United States. Public safety demands credible assessments of the earthquake hazard to maintain appropriate building codes for safe construction and earthquake insurance for loss protection. Seismic hazard analysis begins with an earthquake rupture forecast?a model of probabilities that earthquakes of specified magnitudes, locations, and faulting types will occur during a specified time interval. This report describes a new earthquake rupture forecast for California developed by the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2007).

  19. The mass balance of earthquakes and earthquake sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marc, O.; Hovius, N.; Meunier, P.

    2016-04-01

    Large, compressional earthquakes cause surface uplift as well as widespread mass wasting. Knowledge of their trade-off is fragmentary. Combining a seismologically consistent model of earthquake-triggered landsliding and an analytical solution of coseismic surface displacement, we assess how the mass balance of single earthquakes and earthquake sequences depends on fault size and other geophysical parameters. We find that intermediate size earthquakes (Mw 6-7.3) may cause more erosion than uplift, controlled primarily by seismic source depth and landscape steepness, and less so by fault dip and rake. Such earthquakes can limit topographic growth, but our model indicates that both smaller and larger earthquakes (Mw < 6, Mw > 7.3) systematically cause mountain building. Earthquake sequences with a Gutenberg-Richter distribution have a greater tendency to lead to predominant erosion, than repeating earthquakes of the same magnitude, unless a fault can produce earthquakes with Mw > 8 or more.

  20. Very-long-period volcanic earthquakes beneath Mammoth Mountain, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hill, D.P.; Dawson, P.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Pitt, A.M.; Biasi, G.; Smith, K.

    2002-01-01

    Detection of three very-long-period (VLP) volcanic earthquakes beneath Mammoth Mountain emphasizes that magmatic processes continue to be active beneath this young, eastern California volcano. These VLP earthquakes, which occured in October 1996 and July and August 2000, appear as bell-shaped pulses with durations of one to two minutes on a nearby borehole dilatometer and on the displacement seismogram from a nearby broadband seismometer. They are accompanied by rapid-fire sequences of high-frequency (HF) earthquakes and several long- period (LP) volcanic earthquakes. The limited VLP data are consistent with a CLVD source at a depth of ???3 km beneath the summit, which we interpret as resulting from a slug of fluid (CO2- saturated magmatic brine or perhaps basaltic magma) moving into a crack.

  1. California earthquakes: why only shallow focus?

    PubMed

    Brace, W F; Byerlee, J D

    1970-06-26

    Frictional sliding on sawcuts and faults in laboratory samples of granite and gabbro is markedly temperature-dependent. At pressures from 1 to 5 kilobars, stick-slip gave way to stable sliding as temperature was increased from 200 to 500 degrees Celsius. Increased temperature with depth could thus cause the abrupt disappearance of earthquakes noted at shallow depths in California.

  2. California earthquakes: why only shallow focus?

    PubMed

    Brace, W F; Byerlee, J D

    1970-06-26

    Frictional sliding on sawcuts and faults in laboratory samples of granite and gabbro is markedly temperature-dependent. At pressures from 1 to 5 kilobars, stick-slip gave way to stable sliding as temperature was increased from 200 to 500 degrees Celsius. Increased temperature with depth could thus cause the abrupt disappearance of earthquakes noted at shallow depths in California. PMID:17759338

  3. Migration of historical earthquakes in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    King, C.-Y.; Ma, Z.

    1988-01-01

    Most large earthquakes of magnitude ???6.0 in California during 1852-1987 appear to show a southeast-to-northwest tendency of epicenter migration. This finding is consistent with earlier findings of Savage (1971) for a relatively few large earthquakes along the west coast of North America, and of Wood and Allen (1973) for smaller events along the San Andreas fault in central California. The average speed of migration is approximately 130 km/yr, which is within the range of speeds observed for other major seismic zones in the world. The epicenter migration in California may be the result of some small but broad-scaled episodic strain changes associated with creep waves induced by magma injections at the East Pacific Rise and propagating northwestwardly along a broad transform boundary between the Pacific and North American plates at subseismogenic depths as proposed by Savage (1971). ?? 1988 Birkha??user Verlag.

  4. Migration of historical earthquakes in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, Chi-Yu; Ma, Zongjin

    1988-12-01

    Most large earthquakes of magnitude ≥6.0 in California during 1852 1987 appear to show a southeast-to-northwest tendency of epicenter migration. This finding is consistent with earlier findings of Savage (1971) for a relatively few large earthquakes along the west coast of North America, and of Wood and Allen (1973) for smaller events along the San Andreas fault in central California. The average speed of migration is approximately 130 km/yr, which is within the range of speeds observed for other major seismic zones in the world. The epicenter migration in California may be the result of some small but broad-scaled episodic strain changes associated with creep waves induced by magma injections at the East Pacific Rise and propagating northwestwardly along a broad transform boundary between the Pacific and North American plates at subseismogenic depths as proposed by Savage (1971).

  5. Catalog of earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system in Central California: January-March, 1972

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.; Bennett, R.E.; Meagher, K.L.

    1973-01-01

    Numerous small earthquakes occur each day in the Coast Ranges of Central California. The detailed study of these earthquakes provides a tool for gaining insight into the tectonic and physical processes responsible for the generation of damaging earthquakes. This catalog contains the fundamental parameters for earthquakes located within and adjacent to the seismograph network operated by the National Center for Earthquake Research (NCER), U.S. Geological Survey, during the period January - March, 1972. The motivation for these detailed studies has been described by Pakiser and others (1969) and by Eaton and others (1970). Similar catalogs of earthquakes for the years 1969, 1970 and 1971 have been prepared by Lee and others (1972 b,c,d). The basic data contained in these catalogs provide a foundation for further studies. This catalog contains data on 1,718 earthquakes in Central California. Of particular interest is a sequence of earthquakes in the Bear Valley area which contained single shocks with local magnitudes of S.O and 4.6. Earthquakes from this sequence make up roughly 66% of the total and are currently the subject of an interpretative study. Arrival times at 118 seismograph stations were used to locate the earthquakes listed in this catalog. Of these, 94 are telemetered stations operated by NCER. Readings from the remaining 24 stations were obtained through the courtesy of the Seismographic Stations, University of California, Berkeley (UCB); the Earthquake Mechanism Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, San Francisco (EML); and the California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento. The Seismographic Stations of the University of California, Berkeley,have for many years published a bulletin describing earthquakes in Northern California and the surrounding area, and readings at UCB Stations from more distant events. The purpose of the present catalog is not to replace the UCB Bulletin, but rather to supplement it, by describing the

  6. Predictability of repeating earthquakes near Parkfield, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zechar, J. Douglas; Nadeau, Robert M.

    2012-07-01

    We analyse sequences of repeating microearthquakes that were identified by applying waveform coherency methods to data from the Parkfield High-Resolution Seismic Network. Because by definition all events in a sequence have similar magnitudes and locations, the temporal behaviour of these sequences is naturally isolated, which, coupled with the high occurrence rates of small events, makes these data ideal for studying interevent time distributions. To characterize the temporal predictability of these sequences, we perform retrospective forecast experiments using hundreds of earthquakes. We apply three variants of a simple algorithm that produces sequence-specific, time-varying hazard functions, and we find that the sequences are predictable. We discuss limitations of these data and, more generally, challenges in identifying repeating events, and we outline the potential implications of our results for understanding the occurrence of large earthquakes.

  7. Catalog of earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system in Central California, April-June 1972

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.; Bennett, R.E.; Lester, F.W.

    1973-01-01

    Numerous small earthquakes occur each day in the coast ranges of Central California. The detailed study of these earthquakes provides a tool for gaining insight into the tectonic and physical processes responsible for the generation of damaging earthquakes. This catalog contains the fundamental parameters for earthquakes located within and adjacent to the seismograph network operated by the National Center for Earthquake Research (NCER), U.S. Geological Survey, during the period April - June, 1972. The motivation for these detailed studies has been described by Pakiser and others (1969) and by Eaton and others (1970). Similar catalogs of earthquakes for the years 1969, 1970 and 1971 have been prepared by Lee and others (1972 b, c, d). A catalog for the first quarter of 1972 has been prepared by Wesson and others (1972). The basic data contained in these catalogs provide a foundation for further studies. This catalog contains data on 910 earthquakes in Central California. A substantial portion of the earthquakes reported in this catalog represents a continuation of the sequence of earthquakes in the Bear Valley area which began in February, 1972 (Wesson and others, 1972). Arrival times at 126 seismograph stations were used to locate the earthquakes listed in this catalog. Of these, 101 are telemetered stations operated by NCER. Readings from the remaining 25 stations were obtained through the courtesy of the Seismographic Stations, University of California, Berkeley (UCB); the Earthquake Mechanism Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, San Francisco (EML); and the California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento. The Seismographic Stations of the University of California, Berkeley, have for many years published a bulletin describing earthquakes in Northern California and the surrounding area, and readings at UCB Stations from more distant events. The purpose of the present catalog is not to replace the UCB Bulletin, but rather to supplement

  8. Foreshocks and aftershocks of the Great 1857 California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meltzner, A.J.; Wald, D.J.

    1999-01-01

    The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strike-slip faults anywhere in the world, yet we know little about many aspects of its behavior before, during, and after large earthquakes. We conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest foreshocks and aftershocks of the 1857 M 7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake on the central and southern segments of the fault. We began by searching archived first-hand accounts from 1857 through 1862, by grouping felt reports temporally, and by assigning modified Mercalli intensities to each site. We then used a modified form of the grid-search algorithm of Bakum and Wentworth, derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes, to find the location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities for each of the largest events. The result confirms a conclusion of Sieh that at least two foreshocks ('dawn' and 'sunrise') located on or near the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault preceded the mainshock. We estimate their magnitudes to be M ~ 6.1 and M ~ 5.6, respectively. The aftershock rate was below average but within one standard deviation of the number of aftershocks expected based on statistics of modern southern California mainshock-aftershock sequences. The aftershocks included two significant events during the first eight days of the sequence, with magnitudes M ~ 6.25 and M ~ 6.7, near the southern half of the rupture; later aftershocks included a M ~ 6 event near San Bernardino in December 1858 and a M ~ 6.3 event near the Parkfield segment in April 1860. From earthquake logs at Fort Tejon, we conclude that the aftershock sequence lasted a minimum of 3.75 years.

  9. Hotspots, Lifelines, and the Safrr Haywired Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ratliff, J. L.; Porter, K.

    2014-12-01

    Though California has experienced many large earthquakes (San Francisco, 1906; Loma Prieta, 1989; Northridge, 1994), the San Francisco Bay Area has not had a damaging earthquake for 25 years. Earthquake risk and surging reliance on smartphones and the Internet to handle everyday tasks raise the question: is an increasingly technology-reliant Bay Area prepared for potential infrastructure impacts caused by a major earthquake? How will a major earthquake on the Hayward Fault affect lifelines (roads, power, water, communication, etc.)? The U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) program's Haywired disaster scenario, a hypothetical two-year earthquake sequence triggered by a M7.05 mainshock on the Hayward Fault, addresses these and other questions. We explore four geographic aspects of lifeline damage from earthquakes: (1) geographic lifeline concentrations, (2) areas where lifelines pass through high shaking or potential ground-failure zones, (3) areas with diminished lifeline service demand due to severe building damage, and (4) areas with increased lifeline service demand due to displaced residents and businesses. Potential mainshock lifeline vulnerability and spatial demand changes will be discerned by superimposing earthquake shaking, liquefaction probability, and landslide probability damage thresholds with lifeline concentrations and with large-capacity shelters. Intersecting high hazard levels and lifeline clusters represent potential lifeline susceptibility hotspots. We will also analyze possible temporal vulnerability and demand changes using an aftershock shaking threshold. The results of this analysis will inform regional lifeline resilience initiatives and response and recovery planning, as well as reveal potential redundancies and weaknesses for Bay Area lifelines. Identified spatial and temporal hotspots can provide stakeholders with a reference for possible systemic vulnerability resulting from an earthquake sequence.

  10. Detection of hydrothermal precursors to large northern california earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Silver, P G; Valette-Silver, N J

    1992-09-01

    During the period 1973 to 1991 the interval between eruptions from a periodic geyser in Northern California exhibited precursory variations 1 to 3 days before the three largest earthquakes within a 250-kilometer radius of the geyser. These include the magnitude 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake of 18 October 1989 for which a similar preseismic signal was recorded by a strainmeter located halfway between the geyser and the earthquake. These data show that at least some earthquakes possess observable precursors, one of the prerequisites for successful earthquake prediction. All three earthquakes were further than 130 kilometers from the geyser, suggesting that precursors might be more easily found around rather than within the ultimate rupture zone of large California earthquakes.

  11. Detection of hydrothermal precursors to large northern california earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Silver, P G; Valette-Silver, N J

    1992-09-01

    During the period 1973 to 1991 the interval between eruptions from a periodic geyser in Northern California exhibited precursory variations 1 to 3 days before the three largest earthquakes within a 250-kilometer radius of the geyser. These include the magnitude 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake of 18 October 1989 for which a similar preseismic signal was recorded by a strainmeter located halfway between the geyser and the earthquake. These data show that at least some earthquakes possess observable precursors, one of the prerequisites for successful earthquake prediction. All three earthquakes were further than 130 kilometers from the geyser, suggesting that precursors might be more easily found around rather than within the ultimate rupture zone of large California earthquakes. PMID:17738277

  12. Earthquakes and faults in southern California (1970-2010)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Calzia, James P.; Walter, Stephen R.

    2012-01-01

    The map depicts both active and inactive faults and earthquakes magnitude 1.5 to 7.3 in southern California (1970–2010). The bathymetry was generated from digital files from the California Department of Fish And Game, Marine Region, Coastal Bathymetry Project. Elevation data are from the U.S. Geological Survey National Elevation Database. Landsat satellite image is from fourteen Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper scenes collected between 2009 and 2010. Fault data are reproduced with permission from 2006 California Geological Survey and U.S. Geological Survey data. The earthquake data are from the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center.

  13. Aftershocks and triggered events of the Great 1906 California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meltzner, A.J.; Wald, D.J.

    2003-01-01

    The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strike-slip faults in the world, yet little is known about the aftershocks following the most recent great event on the San Andreas, the Mw 7.8 San Francisco earthquake on 18 April 1906. We conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest aftershocks and triggered events of this earthquake. We examined existing catalogs and historical documents for the period April 1906 to December 1907, compiling data on the first 20 months of the aftershock sequence. We grouped felt reports temporally and assigned modified Mercalli intensities for the larger events based on the descriptions judged to be the most reliable. For onshore and near-shore events, a grid-search algorithm (derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes) was used to find the epicentral location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities. For one event identified as far offshore, the event's intensity distribution was compared with those of modern events, in order to contrain the event's location and magnitude. The largest aftershock within the study period, an M ???6.7 event, occurred ???100 km west of Eureka on 23 April 1906. Although not within our study period, another M ???6.7 aftershock occurred near Cape Mendocino on 28 October 1909. Other significant aftershocks included an M ???5.6 event near San Juan Bautista on 17 May 1906 and an M ???6.3 event near Shelter Cove on 11 August 1907. An M ???4.9 aftershock occurred on the creeping segment of the San Andreas fault (southeast of the mainshock rupture) on 6 July 1906. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake also triggered events in southern California (including separate events in or near the Imperial Valley, the Pomona Valley, and Santa Monica Bay), in western Nevada, in southern central Oregon, and in western Arizona, all within 2 days of the mainshock. Of these trigerred events, the largest were an M ???6.1 earthquake near Brawley

  14. Rupture directivity of moderate earthquakes in northern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Seekins, Linda C.; Boatwright, John

    2010-01-01

    We invert peak ground velocity and acceleration (PGV and PGA) to estimate rupture direction and rupture velocity for 47 moderate earthquakes (3.5≥M≥5.4) in northern California. We correct sets of PGAs and PGVs recorded at stations less than 55–125 km, depending on source depth, for site amplification and source–receiver distance, then fit the residual peak motions to the unilateral directivity function of Ben-Menahem (1961). We independently invert PGA and PGV. The rupture direction can be determined using as few as seven peak motions if the station distribution is sufficient. The rupture velocity is unstable, however, if there are no takeoff angles within 30° of the rupture direction. Rupture velocities are generally subsonic (0.5β–0.9β); for stability, we limit the rupture velocity at v=0.92β, the Rayleigh wave speed. For 73 of 94 inversions, the rupture direction clearly identifies one of the nodal planes as the fault plane. The 35 strike-slip earthquakes have rupture directions that range from nearly horizontal (6 events) to directly updip (5 events); the other 24 rupture partly along strike and partly updip. Two strike-slip earthquakes rupture updip in one inversion and downdip in the other. All but 1 of the 11 thrust earthquakes rupture predominantly updip. We compare the rupture directions for 10 M≥4.0 earthquakes to the relative location of the mainshock and the first two weeks of aftershocks. Spatial distributions of 8 of 10 aftershock sequences agree well with the rupture directivity calculated for the mainshock.

  15. School Safety Down to Earth: California's Earthquake-Resistant Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Progressive Architecture, 1979

    1979-01-01

    Schools in California being built to resist damage by earthquakes are part of a program to meet building standards established in 1933. The three new schools presented reflect the strengths and weaknesses of the program. (Author/MLF)

  16. A slow earthquake sequence on the San Andreas fault

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Linde, A.T.; Gladwin, M.T.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Gwyther, R.L.; Bilham, R.G.

    1996-01-01

    EARTHQUAKES typically release stored strain energy on timescales of the order of seconds, limited by the velocity of sound in rock. Over the past 20 years, observations and laboratory experiments have indicated that capture can also occur more slowly, with durations up to hours. Such events may be important in earthquake nucleation and in accounting for the excess of plate convergence over seismic slip in subduction zones. The detection of events with larger timescales requires near-field deformation measurements. In December 1992, two borehole strainmeters close to the San Andreas fault in California recorded a slow strain event of about a week in duration, and we show here that the strain changes were produced by a slow earthquake sequence (equivalent magnitude 4.8) with complexity similar to that of regular earthquakes. The largest earthquakes associated with these slow events were small (local magnitude 3.7) and contributed negligible strain release. The importance of slow earthquakes in the seismogenic process remains an open question, but these observations extend the observed timescale for slow events by two orders of magnitude.

  17. Earthquake preparedness levels amongst youth and adults in Oakland, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burris, M.; Arroyo-Ruiz, D.; Crockett, C.; Dixon, G.; Jones, M.; Lei, P.; Phillips, B.; Romero, D.; Scott, M.; Spears, D.; Tate, L.; Whitlock, J.; Diaz, J.; Chagolla, R.

    2011-12-01

    The San Francisco Bay Area has not experienced a large earthquake since 1989. However research shows that the Hayward fault is overdue for a tremor, based on paleo-seismic research. To analyze the level of earthquake preparedness in the Oakland area (close to the Hayward fault), we surveyed over 150 people to assess their understanding of earthquakes. Our research evaluates whether increased earthquake knowledge impacts people's preparedness and concern toward earthquake events. Data was collected using smart-phone technology and survey software in four sites across Oakland including; North Oakland, Downtown, East Oakland, and a summer school program in East Oakland, which has youth from throughout the city. Preliminary studies show that over 60% of interviewees have sufficient earthquake knowledge, but that over half of all interviewees are not prepared for a seismic event. Our study shows that in Oakland, California earthquake preparedness levels vary, which could mean we need to develop more ways to disseminate information on earthquake preparedness.

  18. Ground fracturing at the southern end of Summit Ridge caused by October 17, 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake sequence (maps of Summit Ridge Shear Zones, en echelon tension cracks, complex and compound fractures, and small faults that formed coactively with the earthquake sequence)

    SciTech Connect

    Martosudarmo, S.Y.; Johnson, A.M.; Fleming, R.W.

    1997-12-31

    The Loma Prieta earthquake of 17 October 1989 was the first of three large earthquakes that occurred in California in less than 5 years. The main shock of the Loma Prieta earthquake was deep-seated, the rupture zones of the main shock did not reach the surface, and the earthquake produced enigmatic surface ruptures along the frontal faults of the Coast Range and in the epicentral area that were explained in several quite different ways. The Landers earthquake of 28 June 1992 was near surface and produced more than 80 km of spectacular surface rupture of many different kinematic expressions. Detailed study of fractures at Landers has provided a basis for re-evaluating earlier work on fractures produced by the Loma Prieta earthquake. This paper is a description of some of the fractures produced by the Loma Prieta earthquake and a discussion of their causes. Detailed mapping (scale of 1:250) in an area on either side of Summit Road and between Morrell Cutoff Road in the northwest and the intersection of Summit Road and San Jose-Soquel Road in the southeast has provided documentation of fracture orientations and differential displacements required to decipher the ground deformation in that area during the Loma Prieta earthquake.

  19. Identification and Characterization of Earthquake Swarms in Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shearer, P. M.; Zhang, Q.

    2015-12-01

    Earthquake swarms are space-time clusters of seismicity that cannot easily be explained by typical aftershock behavior, and are likely triggered by external processes such as fluid migration and/or slow slip. However, swarm properties are not fully understood and how much swarm occurrence is related to the tectonic environment (e.g., heat flow, stressing rate) or source characteristics (e.g., focal mechanism, stress drop) is unclear. Systematic study of large numbers of swarms and their source properties should help to resolve these issues, but is hampered by the challenge of identifying swarms at a range of spatiotemporal scales from a large earthquake catalog. We have developed a new method to search for clusters by comparing the number of neighboring events to the background events in scalable space/time windows, similar to the idea of STA/LTA algorithms, and then discriminating swarms from aftershock clustering. We first apply this method to the San Jacinto Fault Zone (SJFZ) and find ten times more swarms than a previous study using fixed spatiotemporal windows. The most striking spatial pattern of our identified swarm events is a higher fraction of swarms at the northern and southern ends of the SJFZ than its central segment, which correlates with an increased proportion of normal faulting earthquakes. We then apply our method to search the entire southern California catalog of 433,737 events with M ≥ 1 from 1981 to 2014. Preliminary results indicate that swarms are heterogeneously distributed in space and time, but that higher swarm rates are generally found in regions of normal faulting. We will explore other swarm properties, such as event stress drops, spatial migration behavior, distribution of moment release, and relation to foreshock sequences in order to better understand the driving physical mechanisms of swarms and improve earthquake forecasts.

  20. The magnitude distribution of earthquakes near Southern California faults

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Page, M.T.; Alderson, D.; Doyle, J.

    2011-01-01

    We investigate seismicity near faults in the Southern California Earthquake Center Community Fault Model. We search for anomalously large events that might be signs of a characteristic earthquake distribution. We find that seismicity near major fault zones in Southern California is well modeled by a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, with no evidence of characteristic earthquakes within the resolution limits of the modern instrumental catalog. However, the b value of the locally observed magnitude distribution is found to depend on distance to the nearest mapped fault segment, which suggests that earthquakes nucleating near major faults are likely to have larger magnitudes relative to earthquakes nucleating far from major faults. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  1. Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Field, E.H.; Dawson, T.E.; Felzer, K.R.; Frankel, A.D.; Gupta, V.; Jordan, T.H.; Parsons, T.; Petersen, M.D.; Stein, R.S.; Weldon, R.J.; Wills, C.J.

    2009-01-01

    The 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007) presents the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2). This model comprises a time-independent (Poisson-process) earthquake rate model, developed jointly with the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Program and a time-dependent earthquake-probability model, based on recent earthquake rates and stress-renewal statistics conditioned on the date of last event. The models were developed from updated statewide earthquake catalogs and fault deformation databases using a uniform methodology across all regions and implemented in the modular, extensible Open Seismic Hazard Analysis framework. The rate model satisfies integrating measures of deformation across the plate-boundary zone and is consistent with historical seismicity data. An overprediction of earthquake rates found at intermediate magnitudes (6.5 ??? M ???7.0) in previous models has been reduced to within the 95% confidence bounds of the historical earthquake catalog. A logic tree with 480 branches represents the epistemic uncertainties of the full time-dependent model. The mean UCERF 2 time-dependent probability of one or more M ???6.7 earthquakes in the California region during the next 30 yr is 99.7%; this probability decreases to 46% for M ???7.5 and to 4.5% for M ???8.0. These probabilities do not include the Cascadia subduction zone, largely north of California, for which the estimated 30 yr, M ???8.0 time-dependent probability is 10%. The M ???6.7 probabilities on major strike-slip faults are consistent with the WGCEP (2003) study in the San Francisco Bay Area and the WGCEP (1995) study in southern California, except for significantly lower estimates along the San Jacinto and Elsinore faults, owing to provisions for larger multisegment ruptures. Important model limitations are discussed.

  2. Comparison of Short-term and Long-term Earthquake Forecast Models for Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Helmstetter, A.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

    2004-12-01

    Many earthquakes are triggered in part by preceding events. Aftershocks are the most obvious examples, but many large earthquakes are preceded by smaller ones. The large fluctuations of seismicity rate due to earthquake interactions thus provide a way to improve earthquake forecasting significantly. We have developed a model to estimate daily earthquake probabilities in Southern California, using the Epidemic Type Earthquake Sequence model [Kagan and Knopoff, 1987; Ogata, 1988]. The forecasted seismicity rate is the sum of a constant external loading and of the aftershocks of all past earthquakes. The background rate is estimated by smoothing past seismicity. Each earthquake triggers aftershocks with a rate that increases exponentially with its magnitude and which decreases with time following Omori's law. We use an isotropic kernel to model the spatial distribution of aftershocks for small (M≤5.5) mainshocks, and a smoothing of the location of early aftershocks for larger mainshocks. The model also assumes that all earthquake magnitudes follow the Gutenberg-Richter law with a unifom b-value. We use a maximum likelihood method to estimate the model parameters and tests the short-term and long-term forecasts. A retrospective test using a daily update of the forecasts between 1985/1/1 and 2004/3/10 shows that the short-term model decreases the uncertainty of an earthquake occurrence by a factor of about 10.

  3. Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Ya-Ting; Turcotte, Donald L.; Holliday, James R.; Sachs, Michael K.; Rundle, John B.; Chen, Chien-Chih; Tiampo, Kristy F.

    2011-01-01

    The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M≥4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M≥4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most “successful” in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts. PMID:21949355

  4. Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California.

    PubMed

    Lee, Ya-Ting; Turcotte, Donald L; Holliday, James R; Sachs, Michael K; Rundle, John B; Chen, Chien-Chih; Tiampo, Kristy F

    2011-10-01

    The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most "successful" in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts.

  5. Loma Prieta earthquake, October 17, 1989, Santa Cruz County, California

    SciTech Connect

    McNutt, S.

    1990-01-01

    On Tuesday, October 17, 1989 at 5:04 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault 10 miles northeast of Santa Cruz. This earthquake was the largest earthquake to occur in the San Francisco Bay area since 1906, and the largest anywhere in California since 1952. The earthquake was responsible for 67 deaths and about 7 billion dollars worth of damage, making it the biggest dollar loss natural disaster in United States history. This article describes the seismological features of the earthquake, and briefly outlines a number of other geologic observations made during study of the earthquake, its aftershocks, and its effects. Much of the information in this article was provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

  6. Earthquake Apparent Stress Scaling for the 1999 Hector Mine Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walter, W. R.; Mayeda, K.

    2003-12-01

    There is currently a disagreement within the geophysical community on the way earthquake energy scales with magnitude. One set of studies finds evidence that energy release per seismic moment (apparent stress) is constant (e.g. Choy and Boatwright, 1995; McGarr, 1999; Ide and Beroza, 2001). Other studies find the apparent stress increases with magnitude (e.g. Kanamori et al., 1993; Abercrombie, 1995; Mayeda and Walter, 1996; Izutani and Kanamori, 2001). The resolution of this issue is complicated by the difficulty of accurately accounting for attenuation, radiation inhomogeneities, bandwidth and determining the seismic energy radiated by earthquakes over a wide range of event sizes in a consistent manner. We try to improve upon earlier results by using consistent techniques over common paths for a wide range of sizes and seismic phases. We have examined about 130 earthquakes from the Hector Mine earthquake sequence in Southern California. These earthquakes range in size from the October 16,1999 Mw=7.1 mainshock down to ML=3.0 aftershocks into 2000. The mainshock has unclipped Pg and Lg phases at a number of high quality regional stations (e.g. CMB, ELK, TUC) where we can use the common path to examine apparent stress scaling relations directly. We are careful to avoid any event selection bias that would be related to apparent stress values. We fix each stations path correction using the independent moment and energy estimates for the mainshock. We then use those corrections to determine the seismic energy for each event based on regional Lg spectra. We use a modeling technique (MDAC) based on a modified Brune (1970) spectral shape but without any assumptions of corner-frequency scaling (Walter and Taylor, 2002). We perform similar analysis using the Pg spectra. We find the energy estimates for the same events are consistent for Lg estimates, Pg estimates and the estimates using the independent regional coda envelope technique (Mayeda and Walter, 1996; Mayeda et al

  7. Detailed Analysis of a Multiplet Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iglesias, A.; Singh, S. K.; Garduño, V. H.

    2014-12-01

    The Mexican National Seismological Service reported a sequence of four small earthquakes (2.5 < M < 3.0) occurring in Morelia, a city of 1,000,000, which is the capital city of Michoacán State. A careful revision of the records from a three-component broad band station, located ~10 km far from the earthquakes, showed a sequence of 7 earthquakes in a period of about 36 hours. Waveforms are remarkably similar between them and they may be considered as a "multiplet". In this work, we use the records from the broad-band station and a coda wave interferometry based methodology to obtain the relative distance between pair of events. The 21 inter-event distances obtained are considered as over-determined system for the relative positions between events. A non-linear damped scheme is used to solve the over-determined system and to obtain the spatial distribution of the 7 earthquakes. Results show (1) distances between events are < 200 m, and (2) the sequence has an approximate linear distribution.

  8. The Southern California Earthquake Survival Program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, J.M.

    1989-01-01

    In July 1988, the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors directed the Chief Administrative Office to develop an educational program aimed at improving earthquake preparedness among Los Angeles County residents. the board recognized that current earthquake education efforts were not only insufficient, but also often confusing and costly. The board unanimously approved the development of a program that would make earthquake preparedness a year-long effort by encouraging residents to take a different precaution each month. 

  9. Likelihood- and residual-based evaluation of medium-term earthquake forecast models for California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, Max; Clements, Robert; Rhoades, David; Schorlemmer, Danijel

    2014-09-01

    Seven competing models for forecasting medium-term earthquake rates in California are quantitatively evaluated using the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The model class consists of contrasting versions of the Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Size (EEPAS) and Proximity to Past Earthquakes (PPE) modelling approaches. Models are ranked by their performance on likelihood-based tests, which measure the consistency between a model forecast and observed earthquakes. To directly compare one model against another, we run a classical paired t-test and its non-parametric alternative on an information gain score based on the forecasts. These test scores are complemented by several residual-based methods, which offer detailed spatial information. The experiment period covers 2009 June-2012 September, when California experienced 23 earthquakes above the magnitude threshold. Though all models fail to capture seismicity during an earthquake sequence, spatio-temporal differences between models also emerge. The overall best-performing model has strong time- and magnitude-dependence, weights all earthquakes equally as medium-term precursors of larger events and has a full set of fitted parameters. Models with this time- and magnitude-dependence offer a statistically significant advantage over simpler baseline models. In addition, models that down-weight aftershocks when forecasting larger events have a desirable feature in that they do not overpredict following an observed earthquake sequence. This tendency towards overprediction differs between the simpler model, which is based on fewer parameters, and more complex models that include more parameters.

  10. Triggering of repeating earthquakes in central California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wu, Chunquan; Gomberg, Joan; Ben-Naim, Eli; Johnson, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic stresses carried by transient seismic waves have been found capable of triggering earthquakes instantly in various tectonic settings. Delayed triggering may be even more common, but the mechanisms are not well understood. Catalogs of repeating earthquakes, earthquakes that recur repeatedly at the same location, provide ideal data sets to test the effects of transient dynamic perturbations on the timing of earthquake occurrence. Here we employ a catalog of 165 families containing ~2500 total repeating earthquakes to test whether dynamic perturbations from local, regional, and teleseismic earthquakes change recurrence intervals. The distance to the earthquake generating the perturbing waves is a proxy for the relative potential contributions of static and dynamic deformations, because static deformations decay more rapidly with distance. Clear changes followed the nearby 2004 Mw6 Parkfield earthquake, so we study only repeaters prior to its origin time. We apply a Monte Carlo approach to compare the observed number of shortened recurrence intervals following dynamic perturbations with the distribution of this number estimated for randomized perturbation times. We examine the comparison for a series of dynamic stress peak amplitude and distance thresholds. The results suggest a weak correlation between dynamic perturbations in excess of ~20 kPa and shortened recurrence intervals, for both nearby and remote perturbations.

  11. Earthquake site response in Santa Cruz, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carver, D.; Hartzell, S.H.

    1996-01-01

    Aftershocks of the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake are used to estimate site response in a 12-km2 area centered on downtown Santa Cruz. A total of 258 S-wave records from 36 aftershocks recorded at 33 sites are used in a linear inversion for site-response spectra. The inversion scheme takes advantage of the redundancy of the large data set for which several aftershocks are recorded at each site. The scheme decomposes the observed spectra into source, path, and site terms. The path term is specified before the inversion. The undetermined degree of freedom in the decomposition into source and site spectra is removed by specifying the site-response factor to be approximately 1.0 at two sites on crystalline bedrock. The S-wave site responses correlate well with the surficial geology and observed damage pattern of the mainshock. The site-response spectra of the floodplain sites, which include the heavily damaged downtown area, exhibit significant peaks. The largest peaks are between 1 and 4 Hz. Five floodplain sites have amplification factors of 10 or greater. Most of the floodplain site-response spectra also have a smaller secondary peak between 6 and 8 Hz. Residential areas built on marine terraces above the flood-plain experienced much less severe damage. Site-response spectra for these areas also have their largest peaks between 1 and 4 Hz, but the amplification is generally below 6. Several of these sites also have a secondary peak between 6 and 8 Hz. The response peaks seen at nearly all sites between 1 and 4 Hz are probably caused by the natural resonance of the sedimentary rock column. The higher amplifications at floodplain sites may be caused by surface waves generated at the basin margins. The secondary peak between 6 and 8 Hz at many sites may be a harmonic of the 1- to 4-Hz peaks. We used waveforms from a seven-station approximately linear array located on the floodplain to calculate the apparent velocity and azimuth of propagation of coherent

  12. Earthquake locations and seismic velocity models for Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Guoqing

    Earthquake locations are fundamental to studies of earthquake physics, fault orientations and Earth's deformation. Improving earthquake location accuracy has been an important goal branch in seismology for the past few decades. In this dissertation, I consider several methods to improve both relative and absolute earthquake locations. Chapter 2 is devoted to the comparison of different relative earthquake location techniques based on synthetic data, including the double-difference and source-specific station term (SSST) method. The shrinking box SSST algorithm not only provides similar improvements in relative earthquake locations compared to other techniques, but also improves absolute location accuracy compared to the simple SSST method. Chapter 4 describes and documents the COMPLOC software package for implementing the shrinking box SSST algorithm. Chapter 3 shows how absolute locations for quarry seismicity can be obtained by using remote sensing data, which is useful in providing absolute reference locations for three-dimensional velocity inversions and to constrain the shallow crustal structure in simultaneous earthquake location and velocity inversions. Chapter 5 presents and tests a method to estimate local Vp/Vs ratios for compact similar earthquake clusters using the precise P- and S-differential times obtained using waveform cross-correlation. Chapter 6 describes a new three-dimensional seismic velocity model for southern California obtained using the "composite event method" applied to the SIMULPS tomographic inversion algorithm. Based on this velocity model and waveform cross-correlation, Chapter 7 describes how a new earthquake location catalog is obtained for about 450,000 southern California earthquakes between 1981 and 2005.

  13. Historic Ground Failures in Northern California Triggered by Earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Youd, T. Leslie; Hoose, Seena N.

    1978-01-01

    A major source of earthquake-related damage and casualties in northern California has been ground failures generated by the seismic shaking, including landslides, lateral spreads, ground settlement, and surface cracks. The historical record shows that, except for offshore shocks, the geographic area affected and the quantity and general severity of ground failures increase markedly with Richter magnitude. Hence, the largest historical event, the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, has been the most important generator of ground failures. Because of recent population growth and land development in northern California, the potential for damage in future events is enormous compared with that existing in 1906. Reports of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and other northern California earthquakes and descriptions of ground failures therein are used to (1) identify and clarify the types of ground failures associated with earthquakes, (2) provide a guide for engineers, planners, and others responsible for minimizing seismic hazards, and (3) form a data base for other geotechnical studies of earthquake-triggered pound failures. Geologic, hydrologic, and topographic setting have an important influence on ground failure development as well as distance from the causative fault. Areas especially vulnerable to ground failure in northern California have been oversteepened slopes, such as mountain cliffs, streambanks, and coastal bluffs, and lowland deposits, principally Holocene fluvial deposits, deltaic deposits, and poorly compacted fills. Liquefaction has been the direct cause of most lowland failures. The historical record suggests that ground failures during future large earthquakes are most likely to occur at the same or geologically similar locations as failures during previous earhquakes.

  14. The initial subevent of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Is earthquake size predictable?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kilb, Debi; Gomberg, J.

    1999-01-01

    We examine the initial subevent (ISE) of the M?? 6.7, 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake in order to discriminate between two end-member rupture initiation models: the 'preslip' and 'cascade' models. Final earthquake size may be predictable from an ISE's seismic signature in the preslip model but not in the cascade model. In the cascade model ISEs are simply small earthquakes that can be described as purely dynamic ruptures. In this model a large earthquake is triggered by smaller earthquakes; there is no size scaling between triggering and triggered events and a variety of stress transfer mechanisms are possible. Alternatively, in the preslip model, a large earthquake nucleates as an aseismically slipping patch in which the patch dimension grows and scales with the earthquake's ultimate size; the byproduct of this loading process is the ISE. In this model, the duration of the ISE signal scales with the ultimate size of the earthquake, suggesting that nucleation and earthquake size are determined by a more predictable, measurable, and organized process. To distinguish between these two end-member models we use short period seismograms recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network. We address questions regarding the similarity in hypocenter locations and focal mechanisms of the ISE and the mainshock. We also compare the ISE's waveform characteristics to those of small earthquakes and to the beginnings of earthquakes with a range of magnitudes. We find that the focal mechanisms of the ISE and mainshock are indistinguishable, and both events may have nucleated on and ruptured the same fault plane. These results satisfy the requirements for both models and thus do not discriminate between them. However, further tests show the ISE's waveform characteristics are similar to those of typical small earthquakes in the vicinity and more importantly, do not scale with the mainshock magnitude. These results are more consistent with the cascade model.

  15. Depth dependence of earthquake frequency-magnitude distributions in California: Implications for rupture initiation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mori, J.; Abercrombie, R.E.

    1997-01-01

    Statistics of earthquakes in California show linear frequency-magnitude relationships in the range of M2.0 to M5.5 for various data sets. Assuming Gutenberg-Richter distributions, there is a systematic decrease in b value with increasing depth of earthquakes. We find consistent results for various data sets from northern and southern California that both include and exclude the larger aftershock sequences. We suggest that at shallow depth (???0 to 6 km) conditions with more heterogeneous material properties and lower lithospheric stress prevail. Rupture initiations are more likely to stop before growing into large earthquakes, producing relatively more smaller earthquakes and consequently higher b values. These ideas help to explain the depth-dependent observations of foreshocks in the western United States. The higher occurrence rate of foreshocks preceding shallow earthquakes can be interpreted in terms of rupture initiations that are stopped before growing into the mainshock. At greater depth (9-15 km), any rupture initiation is more likely to continue growing into a larger event, so there are fewer foreshocks. If one assumes that frequency-magnitude statistics can be used to estimate probabilities of a small rupture initiation growing into a larger earthquake, then a small (M2) rupture initiation at 9 to 12 km depth is 18 times more likely to grow into a M5.5 or larger event, compared to the same small rupture initiation at 0 to 3 km. Copyright 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.

  16. Dynamics of liquefaction during the 1987 Superstition Hills, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, T.L.; Youd, T.L.; Hanks, T.C.

    1989-01-01

    Simultaneous measurements of seismically induced pore-water pressure changes and surface and subsurface accelerations at a site undergoing liquefaction caused by the Superstition Hills, California, earthquake (24 November 1987; M = 6.6) reveal that total pore pressures approached lithostatic conditions, but, unexpectedly, after most of the strong motion ceased. Excess pore pressures were generated once horizontal acceleration exceeded a threshold value.

  17. The San Ardo, California, earthquake of 24 November 1985

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Poley, C.M.

    1988-01-01

    Presented here are the main shock focal-plane solution and accompnaying aftershock hypocentral distribution of an M = 4.5 earthquake that occurred at 1921 UTC on the 24 November 1985 (at latitude 36??2.3'N and at longitude 120??52.1'W) at 11.3km depth, near the town of San Ardo, California. -Author

  18. Instability model for recurring large and great earthquakes in southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stuart, W.D.

    1985-01-01

    The locked section of the San Andreas fault in southern California has experienced a number of large and great earthquakes in the past, and thus is expected to have more in the future. To estimate the location, time, and slip of the next few earthquakes, an earthquake instability model is formulated. The model is similar to one recently developed for moderate earthquakes on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. In both models, unstable faulting (the earthquake analog) is caused by failure of all or part of a patch of brittle, strain-softening fault zone. In the present model the patch extends downward from the ground surface to about 12 km depth, and extends 500 km along strike from Parkfield to the Salton Sea. The variation of patch strength along strike is adjusted by trial until the computed sequence of instabilities matches the sequence of large and great earthquakes since a.d. 1080 reported by Sieh and others. The last earthquake was the M=8.3 Ft. Tejon event in 1857. The resulting strength variation has five contiguous sections of alternately low and high strength. From north to south, the approximate locations of the sections are: (1) Parkfield to Bitterwater Valley, (2) Bitterwater Valley to Lake Hughes, (3) Lake Hughes to San Bernardino, (4) San Bernardino to Palm Springs, and (5) Palm Springs to the Salton Sea. Sections 1, 3, and 5 have strengths between 53 and 88 bars; sections 2 and 4 have strengths between 164 and 193 bars. Patch section ends and unstable rupture ends usually coincide, although one or more adjacent patch sections may fail unstably at once. The model predicts that the next sections of the fault to slip unstably will be 1, 3, and 5; the order and dates depend on the assumed length of an earthquake rupture in about 1700. ?? 1985 Birkha??user Verlag.

  19. Felt reports and intensity assignments for aftershocks and triggered events of the great 1906 California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meltzner, Aron J.; Wald, David J.

    2002-01-01

    The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strikeslip faults in the world, yet little is known about the aftershocks following the most recent great event on the San Andreas, the M 7.8 San Francisco earthquake, on 18 April 1906. This open-file report is a compilation of first-hand accounts (felt reports) describing aftershocks and triggered events of the 1906 earthquake, for the first twenty months of the aftershock sequence (through December 1907). The report includes a chronological catalog. For the larger events, Modified Mercalli intensities (MMIs) have been assigned based on the descriptions judged to be the most reliable.

  20. Search for seismic forerunners to earthquakes in central California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.; Robinson, R.; Bufe, C.G.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Pfluke, J.H.; Steppe, J.A.; Seekins, L.C.

    1977-01-01

    The relatively high seismicity of the San Andreas fault zone in central California provides an excellent opportunity to search for seismic forerunners to moderate earthquakes. Analysis of seismic traveltime and earthquake location data has resulted in the identification of two possible seismic forerunners. The first is a period of apparently late (0.3 sec) P-wave arrival times lasting several weeks preceding one earthquake of magnitude 5.0. The rays for these travel paths passed through - or very close to - the aftershock volume of the subsequent earthquake. The sources for these P-arrival time data were earthquakes in the distance range 20-70 km. Uncertainties in the influence of small changes in the hypocenters of the source earthquakes and in the identification of small P-arrivals raise the possibility that the apparantly delayed arrivals are not the result of a decrease in P-velocity. The second possible precursor is an apparent increase in the average depth of earthquakes preceding two moderate earthquakes. This change might be only apparent, caused by a location bias introduced by a decrease in P-wave velocity, but numerical modeling for realistic possible changes in velocity suggests that the observed effect is more likely a true migration of earthquakes. To carry out this work - involving the manipulation of several thousand earthquake hypocenters and several hundred thousand readings of arrival time - a system of data storage was designed and manipulation programs for a large digital computer have been executed. This system allows, for example, the automatic selection of earthquakes from a specific region, the extraction of all the observed arrival times for these events, and their relocation under a chosen set of assumptions. ?? 1977.

  1. Long Period Earthquakes Beneath California's Young and Restless Volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitt, A. M.; Dawson, P. B.; Shelly, D. R.; Hill, D. P.; Mangan, M.

    2013-12-01

    The newly established USGS California Volcano Observatory has the broad responsibility of monitoring and assessing hazards at California's potentially threatening volcanoes, most notably Mount Shasta, Medicine Lake, Clear Lake Volcanic Field, and Lassen Volcanic Center in northern California; and Long Valley Caldera, Mammoth Mountain, and Mono-Inyo Craters in east-central California. Volcanic eruptions occur in California about as frequently as the largest San Andreas Fault Zone earthquakes-more than ten eruptions have occurred in the last 1,000 years, most recently at Lassen Peak (1666 C.E. and 1914-1917 C.E.) and Mono-Inyo Craters (c. 1700 C.E.). The Long Valley region (Long Valley caldera and Mammoth Mountain) underwent several episodes of heightened unrest over the last three decades, including intense swarms of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes, rapid caldera uplift, and hazardous CO2 emissions. Both Medicine Lake and Lassen are subsiding at appreciable rates, and along with Clear Lake, Long Valley Caldera, and Mammoth Mountain, sporadically experience long period (LP) earthquakes related to migration of magmatic or hydrothermal fluids. Worldwide, the last two decades have shown the importance of tracking LP earthquakes beneath young volcanic systems, as they often provide indication of impending unrest or eruption. Herein we document the occurrence of LP earthquakes at several of California's young volcanoes, updating a previous study published in Pitt et al., 2002, SRL. All events were detected and located using data from stations within the Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN). Event detection was spatially and temporally uneven across the NCSN in the 1980s and 1990s, but additional stations, adoption of the Earthworm processing system, and heightened vigilance by seismologists have improved the catalog over the last decade. LP earthquakes are now relatively well-recorded under Lassen (~150 events since 2000), Clear Lake (~60 events), Mammoth Mountain

  2. Crustal deformation in great California earthquake cycles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Victor C.; Rice, James R.

    1986-01-01

    Periodic crustal deformation associated with repeated strike slip earthquakes is computed for the following model: A depth L (less than or similiar to H) extending downward from the Earth's surface at a transform boundary between uniform elastic lithospheric plates of thickness H is locked between earthquakes. It slips an amount consistent with remote plate velocity V sub pl after each lapse of earthquake cycle time T sub cy. Lower portions of the fault zone at the boundary slip continuously so as to maintain constant resistive shear stress. The plates are coupled at their base to a Maxwellian viscoelastic asthenosphere through which steady deep seated mantle motions, compatible with plate velocity, are transmitted to the surface plates. The coupling is described approximately through a generalized Elsasser model. It is argued that the model gives a more realistic physical description of tectonic loading, including the time dependence of deep slip and crustal stress build up throughout the earthquake cycle, than do simpler kinematic models in which loading is represented as imposed uniform dislocation slip on the fault below the locked zone.

  3. In the shadow of 1857-the effect of the great Ft. Tejon earthquake on subsequent earthquakes in southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.A.; Simpson, R.W.

    1996-01-01

    The great 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake is the largest earthquake to have hit southern California during the historic period. We investigated if seismicity patterns following 1857 could be due to static stress changes generated by the 1857 earthquake. When post-1857 earthquakes with unknown focal mechanisms were assigned strike-slip mechanisms with strike and rake determined by the nearest active fault, 13 of the 13 southern California M???5.5 earthquakes between 1857 and 1907 were encouraged by the 1857 rupture. When post-1857 earthquakes in the Transverse Ranges with unknown focal mechanisms were assigned reverse mechanisms and all other events were assumed strike-slip, 11 of the 13 earthquakes were encouraged by the 1857 earthquake. These results show significant correlations between static stress changes and seismicity patterns. The correlation disappears around 1907, suggesting that tectonic loading began to overwhelm the effect of the 1857 earthquake early in the 20th century.

  4. Source properties of earthquakes near the Salton Sea triggered by the 16 October 1999 M 7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.; Kanamori, H.

    2002-01-01

    We analyze the source properties of a sequence of triggered earthquakes that occurred near the Salton Sea in southern California in the immediate aftermath of the M 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake of 16 October 1999. The sequence produced a number of early events that were not initially located by the regional network, including two moderate earthquakes: the first within 30 sec of the P-wave arrival and a second approximately 10 minutes after the mainshock. We use available amplitude and waveform data from these events to estimate magnitudes to be approximately 4.7 and 4.4, respectively, and to obtain crude estimates of their locations. The sequence of small events following the initial M 4.7 earthquake is clustered and suggestive of a local aftershock sequence. Using both broadband TriNet data and analog data from the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN), we also investigate the spectral characteristics of the M 4.4 event and other triggered earthquakes using empirical Green's function (EGF) analysis. We find that the source spectra of the events are consistent with expectations for tectonic (brittle shear failure) earthquakes, and infer stress drop values of 0.1 to 6 MPa for six M 2.1 to M 4.4 events. The estimated stress drop values are within the range observed for tectonic earthquakes elsewhere. They are relatively low compared to typically observed stress drop values, which is consistent with expectations for faulting in an extensional, high heat flow regime. The results therefore suggest that, at least in this case, triggered earthquakes are associated with a brittle shear failure mechanism. This further suggests that triggered earthquakes may tend to occur in geothermal-volcanic regions because shear failure occurs at, and can be triggered by, relatively low stresses in extensional regimes.

  5. Deterministic Earthquake Hazard Assessment by Public Agencies in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mualchin, L.

    2005-12-01

    Even in its short recorded history, California has experienced a number of damaging earthquakes that have resulted in new codes and other legislation for public safety. In particular, the 1971 San Fernando earthquake produced some of the most lasting results such as the Hospital Safety Act, the Strong Motion Instrumentation Program, the Alquist-Priolo Special Studies Zone Act, and the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans') fault-based deterministic seismic hazard (DSH) map. The latter product provides values for earthquake ground motions based on Maximum Credible Earthquakes (MCEs), defined as the largest earthquakes that can reasonably be expected on faults in the current tectonic regime. For surface fault rupture displacement hazards, detailed study of the same faults apply. Originally, hospital, dam, and other critical facilities used seismic design criteria based on deterministic seismic hazard analyses (DSHA). However, probabilistic methods grew and took hold by introducing earthquake design criteria based on time factors and quantifying "uncertainties", by procedures such as logic trees. These probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) ignored the DSH approach. Some agencies were influenced to adopt only the PSHA method. However, deficiencies in the PSHA method are becoming recognized, and the use of the method is now becoming a focus of strong debate. Caltrans is in the process of producing the fourth edition of its DSH map. The reason for preferring the DSH method is that Caltrans believes it is more realistic than the probabilistic method for assessing earthquake hazards that may affect critical facilities, and is the best available method for insuring public safety. Its time-invariant values help to produce robust design criteria that are soundly based on physical evidence. And it is the method for which there is the least opportunity for unwelcome surprises.

  6. Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Summer Internship Programs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benthien, M. L.; Perry, S.; Jordan, T. H.

    2004-12-01

    For the eleventh consecutive year, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) coordinated undergraduate research experiences in summer 2004, allowing 35 students with a broad array of backgrounds and interests to work with the world's preeminent earthquake scientists and specialists. Students participate in interdisciplinary, system-level earthquake science and information technology research, and several group activities throughout the summer. Funding for student stipends and activities is made possible by the NSF Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU) program. SCEC coordinates two intern programs: The SCEC Summer Undergraduate Research Experience (SCEC/SURE) and the SCEC Undergraduate Summer in Earthquake Information Technology (SCEC/USEIT). SCEC/SURE interns work one-on-one with SCEC scientists at their institutions on a variety of earthquake science research projects. The goals of the program are to expand student participation in the earth sciences and related disciplines, encourage students to consider careers in research and education, and to increase diversity of students and researchers in the earth sciences. 13 students participated in this program in 2004. SCEC/USEIT is an NSF REU site that brings undergraduate students from across the country to the University of Southern California each summer. SCEC/USEIT interns interact in a team-oriented research environment and are mentored by some of the nation's most distinguished geoscience and computer science researchers. The goals of the program are to allow undergraduates to use advanced tools of information technology to solve problems in earthquake research; close the gap between computer science and geoscience; and engage non-geoscience majors in the application of earth science to the practical problems of reducing earthquake risk. SCEC/USEIT summer research goals are structured around a grand challenge problem in earthquake information technology. For the past three years the students have

  7. Tidal stress triggering of earthquakes in Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bucholc, Magda; Steacy, Sandy

    2016-05-01

    We analyse the influence of the solid Earth tides and ocean loading on the occurrence time of Southern California earthquakes. For each earthquake, we calculate tidal Coulomb failure stress and stress rate on a fault plane that is assumed to be controlled by the orientation of the adjacent fault. To reduce bias when selecting data for testing the tide-earthquake relationship, we create four earthquake catalogues containing events within 1, 1.5, 2.5 and 5 km of nearest faults. We investigate the difference in seismicity rates at times of positive and negative tidal stresses/stress rates given three different cases. We consider seismicity rates during times of positive versus negative stress and stress rate, as well as 2 and 3 hr surrounding the local tidal stress extremes. We find that tidal influence on earthquake occurrence is found to be statistically non-random only in close proximity to tidal extremes meaning that magnitude of tidal stress plays an important role in tidal triggering. A non-random tidal signal is observed for the reverse events. Along with a significant increase in earthquake rates around tidal Coulomb stress maxima, the strength of tidal correlation is found to be closely related to the amplitude of the peak tidal Coulomb stress (τp). The most effective tidal triggering is found for τp ≥ 1 kPa, which is much smaller than thresholds suggested for static and dynamic triggering of aftershocks.

  8. MOHO ORIENTATION BENEATH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FROM REGIONAL EARTHQUAKE TRAVEL TIMES.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oppenheimer, David H.; Eaton, Jerry P.

    1984-01-01

    This paper examines relative Pn arrival times, recorded by the U. S. Geological Survey seismic network in central and northern California from an azimuthally distributed set of regional earthquakes. Improved estimates are presented of upper mantle velocities in the Coast Ranges, Great Valley, and Sierra Nevada foothills and estimates of the orientation of the Moho throughout this region. Finally, the azimuthal distribution of apparent velocities, corrected for dip and individual station travel time effects, is then studied for evidence of upper mantle velocity anisotropy and for indications of lower crustal structure in central California.

  9. Dynamic models of an earthquake and tsunami offshore Ventura, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kenny J. Ryan,; Geist, Eric L.; Barall, Michael; David D. Oglesby,

    2015-01-01

    The Ventura basin in Southern California includes coastal dip-slip faults that can likely produce earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater and significant local tsunamis. We construct a 3-D dynamic rupture model of an earthquake on the Pitas Point and Lower Red Mountain faults to model low-frequency ground motion and the resulting tsunami, with a goal of elucidating the seismic and tsunami hazard in this area. Our model results in an average stress drop of 6 MPa, an average fault slip of 7.4 m, and a moment magnitude of 7.7, consistent with regional paleoseismic data. Our corresponding tsunami model uses final seafloor displacement from the rupture model as initial conditions to compute local propagation and inundation, resulting in large peak tsunami amplitudes northward and eastward due to site and path effects. Modeled inundation in the Ventura area is significantly greater than that indicated by state of California's current reference inundation line.

  10. Nonlinear site response in medium magnitude earthquakes near Parkfield, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rubinstein, Justin L.

    2011-01-01

    Careful analysis of strong-motion recordings of 13 medium magnitude earthquakes (3.7 ≤ M ≤ 6.5) in the Parkfield, California, area shows that very modest levels of shaking (approximately 3.5% of the acceleration of gravity) can produce observable changes in site response. Specifically, I observe a drop and subsequent recovery of the resonant frequency at sites that are part of the USGS Parkfield dense seismograph array (UPSAR) and Turkey Flat array. While further work is necessary to fully eliminate other models, given that these frequency shifts correlate with the strength of shaking at the Turkey Flat array and only appear for the strongest shaking levels at UPSAR, the most plausible explanation for them is that they are a result of nonlinear site response. Assuming this to be true, the observation of nonlinear site response in small (M M 6.5 San Simeon earthquake and the 2004 M 6 Parkfield earthquake).

  11. Some facts about aftershocks to large earthquakes in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.; Reasenberg, Paul A.

    1996-01-01

    Earthquakes occur in clusters. After one earthquake happens, we usually see others at nearby (or identical) locations. To talk about this phenomenon, seismologists coined three terms foreshock , mainshock , and aftershock. In any cluster of earthquakes, the one with the largest magnitude is called the mainshock; earthquakes that occur before the mainshock are called foreshocks while those that occur after the mainshock are called aftershocks. A mainshock will be redefined as a foreshock if a subsequent event in the cluster has a larger magnitude. Aftershock sequences follow predictable patterns. That is, a sequence of aftershocks follows certain global patterns as a group, but the individual earthquakes comprising the group are random and unpredictable. This relationship between the pattern of a group and the randomness (stochastic nature) of the individuals has a close parallel in actuarial statistics. We can describe the pattern that aftershock sequences tend to follow with well-constrained equations. However, we must keep in mind that the actual aftershocks are only probabilistically described by these equations. Once the parameters in these equations have been estimated, we can determine the probability of aftershocks occurring in various space, time and magnitude ranges as described below. Clustering of earthquakes usually occurs near the location of the mainshock. The stress on the mainshock's fault changes drastically during the mainshock and that fault produces most of the aftershocks. This causes a change in the regional stress, the size of which decreases rapidly with distance from the mainshock. Sometimes the change in stress caused by the mainshock is great enough to trigger aftershocks on other, nearby faults. While there is no hard "cutoff" distance beyond which an earthquake is totally incapable of triggering an aftershock, the vast majority of aftershocks are located close to the mainshock. As a rule of thumb, we consider earthquakes to be

  12. Cascadia Earthquake and Tsunami Scenario for California's North Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dengler, L.

    2006-12-01

    In 1995 the California Division of Mines and Geology (now the California Geological Survey) released a planning scenario for an earthquake on the southern portion of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). This scenario was the 8th and last of the Earthquake Planning Scenarios published by CDMG. It was the largest magnitude CDMG scenario, an 8.4 earthquake rupturing the southern 200 km of the CSZ, and it was the only scenario to include tsunami impacts. This scenario event has not occurred in historic times and depicts impacts far more severe than any recent earthquake. The local tsunami hazard is new; there is no written record of significant local tsunami impact in the region. The north coast scenario received considerable attention in Humboldt and Del Norte Counties and contributed to a number of mitigation efforts. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of scientists, emergency managers, government agencies, and businesses from Humboldt, Mendocino, and Del Norte Counties, was formed in 1996 to assist local jurisdictions in understanding the implications of the scenario and to promote a coordinated, consistent mitigation program. The group has produced print and video materials and promoted response and evacuation planning. Since 1997 the RCTWG has sponsored an Earthquake Tsunami Education Room at county fairs featuring preparedness information, hands-on exhibits and regional tsunami hazard maps. Since the development of the TsunamiReady Program in 2001, the RCTWG facilitates community TsunamiReady certification. To assess the effectiveness of mitigation efforts, five telephone surveys between 1993 and 2001 were conducted by the Humboldt Earthquake Education Center. A sixth survey is planned for this fall. Each survey includes between 400 and 600 respondents. Over the nine year period covered by the surveys, the percent with houses secured to foundations has increased from 58 to 80 percent, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased

  13. Analecta of structures formed during the 28 June 1992 Landers-Big Bear, California earthquake sequence (including maps of shear zones, belts of shear zones, tectonic ridge, duplex en echelon fault, fault elements, and thrusts in restraining steps)

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, A.M.; Johnson, N.A.; Johnson, K.M.; Wei, W.; Fleming, R.W.; Cruikshank, K.M.; Martosudarmo, S.Y.

    1997-12-31

    The June 28, 1992, M{sub s} 7.5 earthquake at Landers, California, which occurred about 10 km north of the community of Yucca Valley, California, produced spectacular ground rupturing more than 80 km in length (Hough and others, 1993). The ground rupturing, which was dominated by right-lateral shearing, extended along at least four distinct faults arranged broadly en echelon. The faults were connected through wide transfer zones by stepovers, consisting of right-lateral fault zones and tension cracks. The Landers earthquakes occurred in the desert of southeastern California, where details of ruptures were well preserved, and patterns of rupturing were generally unaffected by urbanization. The structures were varied and well-displayed and, because the differential displacements were so large, spectacular. The scarcity of vegetation, the aridity of the area, the compactness of the alluvium and bedrock, and the relative isotropy and brittleness of surficial materials collaborated to provide a marvelous visual record of the character of the deformation zones. The authors present a series of analecta -- that is, verbal clips or snippets -- dealing with a variety of structures, including belts of shear zones, segmentation of ruptures, rotating fault block, en echelon fault zones, releasing duplex structures, spines, and ramps. All of these structures are documented with detailed maps in text figures or in plates (in pocket). The purpose is to describe the structures and to present an understanding of the mechanics of their formation. Hence, most descriptions focus on structures where the authors have information on differential displacements as well as spatial data on the position and orientation of fractures.

  14. The California Post-Earthquake Information Clearinghouse: A Plan to Learn From the Next Large California Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loyd, R.; Walter, S.; Fenton, J.; Tubbesing, S.; Greene, M.

    2008-12-01

    In the rush to remove debris after a damaging earthquake, perishable data related to a wide range of impacts on the physical, built and social environments can be lost. The California Post-Earthquake Information Clearinghouse is intended to prevent this data loss by supporting the earth scientists, engineers, and social and policy researchers who will conduct fieldwork in the affected areas in the hours and days following the earthquake to study these effects. First called for by Governor Ronald Reagan following the destructive M6.5 San Fernando earthquake in 1971, the concept of the Clearinghouse has since been incorporated into the response plans of the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (USGS Circular 1242). This presentation is intended to acquaint scientists with the purpose, functions, and services of the Clearinghouse. Typically, the Clearinghouse is set up in the vicinity of the earthquake within 24 hours of the mainshock and is maintained for several days to several weeks. It provides a location where field researchers can assemble to share and discuss their observations, plan and coordinate subsequent field work, and communicate significant findings directly to the emergency responders and to the public through press conferences. As the immediate response effort winds down, the Clearinghouse will ensure that collected data are archived and made available through "lessons learned" reports and publications that follow significant earthquakes. Participants in the quarterly meetings of the Clearinghouse include representatives from state and federal agencies, universities, NGOs and other private groups. Overall management of the Clearinghouse is delegated to the agencies represented by the authors above.

  15. The 2012 Sumatra great earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duputel, Zacharie; Kanamori, Hiroo; Tsai, Victor C.; Rivera, Luis; Meng, Lingsen; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Stock, Joann M.

    2012-10-01

    The equatorial Indian Ocean is a well known place of active intraplate deformation defying the conventional view of rigid plates separated by narrow boundaries where deformation is confined. On 11 April 2012, this region was hit in a couple of hours by two of the largest strike-slip earthquakes ever recorded (moment magnitudes Mw=8.6 and 8.2). Broadband seismological observations of the Mw=8.6 mainshock indicate a large centroid depth (˜30 km) and remarkable rupture complexity. Detailed study of the surface-wave directivity and moment rate functions clearly indicates the partition of the rupture into at least two distinct subevents. To account for these observations, we developed a procedure to invert for multiple-point-source parameters. The optimum source model at long period consists of two point sources separated by about 209 km with magnitudes Mw=8.5 and 8.3. To explain the remaining discrepancies between predicted and observed surface waves, we can refine this model by adding directivity along the WNW-ESE axis. However, we do not exclude more complicated models. To analyze the Mw=8.2 aftershock, we removed the perturbation due to large surface-wave arrivals of the Mw=8.6 mainshock by subtracting the corresponding synthetics computed for the two-subevent model. Analysis of the surface-wave amplitudes suggests that the Mw=8.2 aftershock had a large centroid depth between 30 km and 40 km. This major earthquake sequence brings a new perspective to the seismotectonics of the equatorial Indian Ocean and reveals active deep lithospheric deformation.

  16. Earthquake epicenters and fault intersections in central and southern California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Abdel-Gawad, M. (Principal Investigator); Silverstein, J.

    1972-01-01

    The author has identifed the following significant results. ERTS-1 imagery provided evidence for the existence of short transverse fault segments lodged between faults of the San Andreas system in the Coast Ranges, California. They indicate that an early episode of transverse shear has affected the Coast Ranges prior to the establishment of the present San Andreas fault. The fault has been offset by transverse faults of the Transverse Ranges. It appears feasible to identify from ERTS-1 imagery geomorphic criteria of recent fault movements. Plots of historic earthquakes in the Coast Ranges and western Transverse Ranges show clusters in areas where structures are complicated by interaction of tow active fault systems. A fault lineament apparently not previously mapped was identified in the Uinta Mountains, Utah. Part of the lineament show evidence of recent faulting which corresponds to a moderate earthquake cluster.

  17. ERTS Applications in earthquake research and mineral exploration in California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Abdel-Gawad, M.; Silverstein, J.

    1973-01-01

    Examples that ERTS imagery can be effectively utilized to identify, locate, and map faults which show geomorphic evidence of geologically recent breakage are presented. Several important faults not previously known have been identified. By plotting epicenters of historic earthquakes in parts of California, Sonora, Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada, we found that areas known for historic seismicity are often characterized by abundant evidence of recent fault and crustal movements. There are many examples of seismically quiet areas where outstanding evidence of recent fault movements is observed. One application is clear: ERTS-1 imagery could be effectively utilized to delineate areas susceptible to earthquake recurrence which, on the basis of seismic data alone, may be misleadingly considered safe. ERTS data can also be utilized in planning new sites in the geophysical network of fault movement monitoring and strain and tilt measurements.

  18. Earthquake!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hernandez, Hildo

    2000-01-01

    Examines the types of damage experienced by California State University at Northridge during the 1994 earthquake and what lessons were learned in handling this emergency are discussed. The problem of loose asbestos is addressed. (GR)

  19. Fluid injection triggering of 2011 earthquake sequence in Oklahoma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keranen, K. M.; Savage, H. M.; Abers, G. A.; Cochran, E. S.

    2012-12-01

    Significant earthquakes are increasingly occurring within the United States midcontinent, with nine having moment-magnitude (Mw) ≥4.0 and five with Mw≥5.0 in 2011 alone. In parallel, wastewater injection into deep sedimentary formations has increased as unconventional oil and gas resources are developed. Injected fluids may lower normal stress on existing fault planes, and the correlation between injection wells and earthquake locations led to speculation that many 2011 earthquakes were triggered by injection. The largest earthquake potentially related to injection (Mw5.7) struck in November 2011 in central Oklahoma. Here we use aftershocks to document the fault patterns responsible for the M5.7 earthquake and a prolific sequence of related events, and use the timing and spatial correlation of the earthquakes with injection wells and subsurface structures to show that the earthquakes were likely triggered by fluid injection. The aftershock sequence details rupture along three distinct fault planes, the first of which reaches within 250 meters of active injection wells and within 1 km of the surface. This earthquake sequence began where fluids are injected at low pressure into a depleted oil reservoir bound by faults that effectively seal fluid flow. Injection into sealed compartments allows reservoir pressure to increase gradually over time, suggesting that reservoir volume, in this case, controls the triggering timescale. This process allows multi-year lags between the commencement of fluid injection and triggered earthquakes.

  20. Clustered and transient earthquake sequences in mid-continents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, M.; Stein, S. A.; Wang, H.; Luo, G.

    2012-12-01

    Earthquakes result from sudden release of strain energy on faults. On plate boundary faults, strain energy is constantly accumulating from steady and relatively rapid relative plate motion, so large earthquakes continue to occur so long as motion continues on the boundary. In contrast, such steady accumulation of stain energy does not occur on faults in mid-continents, because the far-field tectonic loading is not steadily distributed between faults, and because stress perturbations from complex fault interactions and other stress triggers can be significant relative to the slow tectonic stressing. Consequently, mid-continental earthquakes are often temporally clustered and transient, and spatially migrating. This behavior is well illustrated by large earthquakes in North China in the past two millennia, during which no single large earthquakes repeated on the same fault segments, but moment release between large fault systems was complementary. Slow tectonic loading in mid-continents also causes long aftershock sequences. We show that the recent small earthquakes in the Tangshan region of North China are aftershocks of the 1976 Tangshan earthquake (M 7.5), rather than indicators of a new phase of seismic activity in North China, as many fear. Understanding the transient behavior of mid-continental earthquakes has important implications for assessing earthquake hazards. The sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) in central US, which includes a cluster of M~7 events in 1811-1812 and perhaps a few similar ones in the past millennium, is likely a transient process, releasing previously accumulated elastic strain on recently activated faults. If so, this earthquake sequence will eventually end. Using simple analysis and numerical modeling, we show that the large NMSZ earthquakes may be ending now or in the near future.

  1. Geometry and earthquake potential of the shoreline fault, central California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

    2013-01-01

    The Shoreline fault is a vertical strike‐slip fault running along the coastline near San Luis Obispo, California. Much is unknown about the Shoreline fault, including its slip rate and the details of its geometry. Here, I study the geometry of the Shoreline fault at seismogenic depth, as well as the adjacent section of the offshore Hosgri fault, using seismicity relocations and earthquake focal mechanisms. The Optimal Anisotropic Dynamic Clustering (OADC) algorithm (Ouillon et al., 2008) is used to objectively identify the simplest planar fault geometry that fits all of the earthquakes to within their location uncertainty. The OADC results show that the Shoreline fault is a single continuous structure that connects to the Hosgri fault. Discontinuities smaller than about 1 km may be undetected, but would be too small to be barriers to earthquake rupture. The Hosgri fault dips steeply to the east, while the Shoreline fault is essentially vertical, so the Hosgri fault dips towards and under the Shoreline fault as the two faults approach their intersection. The focal mechanisms generally agree with pure right‐lateral strike‐slip on the OADC planes, but suggest a non‐planar Hosgri fault or another structure underlying the northern Shoreline fault. The Shoreline fault most likely transfers strike‐slip motion between the Hosgri fault and other faults of the Pacific–North America plate boundary system to the east. A hypothetical earthquake rupturing the entire known length of the Shoreline fault would have a moment magnitude of 6.4–6.8. A hypothetical earthquake rupturing the Shoreline fault and the section of the Hosgri fault north of the Hosgri–Shoreline junction would have a moment magnitude of 7.2–7.5.

  2. The Virtual Quake earthquake simulator: a simulation-based forecast of the El Mayor-Cucapah region and evidence of predictability in simulated earthquake sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoder, Mark R.; Schultz, Kasey W.; Heien, Eric M.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Parker, Jay W.; Donnellan, Andrea

    2015-12-01

    In this manuscript, we introduce a framework for developing earthquake forecasts using Virtual Quake (VQ), the generalized successor to the perhaps better known Virtual California (VC) earthquake simulator. We discuss the basic merits and mechanics of the simulator, and we present several statistics of interest for earthquake forecasting. We also show that, though the system as a whole (in aggregate) behaves quite randomly, (simulated) earthquake sequences limited to specific fault sections exhibit measurable predictability in the form of increasing seismicity precursory to large m > 7 earthquakes. In order to quantify this, we develop an alert-based forecasting metric, and show that it exhibits significant information gain compared to random forecasts. We also discuss the long-standing question of activation versus quiescent type earthquake triggering. We show that VQ exhibits both behaviours separately for independent fault sections; some fault sections exhibit activation type triggering, while others are better characterized by quiescent type triggering. We discuss these aspects of VQ specifically with respect to faults in the Salton Basin and near the El Mayor-Cucapah region in southern California, USA and northern Baja California Norte, Mexico.

  3. The 1868 Hayward fault, California, earthquake: Implications for earthquake scaling relations on partially creeping faults

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, Susan E.; Martin, Stacey

    2015-01-01

    The 21 October 1868 Hayward, California, earthquake is among the best-characterized historical earthquakes in California. In contrast to many other moderate-to-large historical events, the causative fault is clearly established. Published magnitude estimates have been fairly consistent, ranging from 6.8 to 7.2, with 95% confidence limits including values as low as 6.5. The magnitude is of particular importance for assessment of seismic hazard associated with the Hayward fault and, more generally, to develop appropriate magnitude–rupture length scaling relations for partially creeping faults. The recent reevaluation of archival accounts by Boatwright and Bundock (2008), together with the growing volume of well-calibrated intensity data from the U.S. Geological Survey “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) system, provide an opportunity to revisit and refine the magnitude estimate. In this study, we estimate the magnitude using two different methods that use DYFI data as calibration. Both approaches yield preferred magnitude estimates of 6.3–6.6, assuming an average stress drop. A consideration of data limitations associated with settlement patterns increases the range to 6.3–6.7, with a preferred estimate of 6.5. Although magnitude estimates for historical earthquakes are inevitably uncertain, we conclude that, at a minimum, a lower-magnitude estimate represents a credible alternative interpretation of available data. We further discuss implications of our results for probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment from partially creeping faults.

  4. SCIGN; new Southern California GPS network advances the study of earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hudnut, Ken; King, Nancy

    2001-01-01

    Southern California is a giant jigsaw puzzle, and scientists are now using GPS satellites to track the pieces. These puzzle pieces are continuously moving, slowly straining the faults in between. That strain is then eventually released in earthquakes. The innovative Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN) tracks the motions of these pieces over most of southern California with unprecedented precision. This new network greatly improves the ability to assess seismic hazards and quickly measure the larger displacements that occur during and immediatelyafter earthquakes.

  5. 1957 Gobi-Altay, Mongolia, earthquake as a prototype for southern California's most devastating earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bayarsayhan, C.; Bayasgalan, A.; Enhtuvshin, B.; Hudnut, K.W.; Kurushin, R.A.; Molnar, P.; Olziybat, M.

    1996-01-01

    The 1957 Gobi-Altay earthquake was associated with both strike-slip and thrust faulting, processes similar to those along the San Andreas fault and the faults bounding the San Gabriel Mountains just north of Los Angeles, California. Clearly, a major rupture either on the San Andreas fault north of Los Angeles or on the thrust faults bounding the Los Angeles basin poses a serious hazard to inhabitants of that area. By analogy with the Gobi-Altay earthquake, we suggest that simultaneous rupturing of both the San Andreas fault and the thrust faults nearer Los Angeles is a real possibility that amplifies the hazard posed by ruptures on either fault system separately.

  6. Modelling aftershock migration and afterslip of the San Juan Bautista, California, earthquake of October 3, 1972

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The San Juan Bautista earthquake of October 3, 1972 (ML = 4.8), located along the San Andreas fault in central California, initiated an aftershock sequence characterized by a subtle, but perceptible, tendency for aftershocks to spread to the northwest and southeast along the fault zone. The apparent dimension of the aftershock zone along strike increased from about 7-10 km within a few days of the earthquake, to about 20 km eight months later. In addition, the mainshock initiated a period of accelerated fault creep, which was observed at 2 creep meters situated astride the trace of the San Andreas fault within about 15 km of the epicenter of the mainshock. The creep rate gradually returned to the preearthquake rate after about 3 yrs. Both the spreading of the aftershocks and the rapid surface creep are interpreted as reflecting a period of rapid creep in the fault zone representing the readjustment of stress and displacement following the failure of a "stuck" patch or asperity during the San Juan Bautista earthquake. Numerical calculations suggest that the behavior of the fault zone is consistent with that of a material characterized by a viscosity of about 3.6??1014 P, although the real rheology is likely to be more complicated. In this model, the mainshock represents the failure of an asperity that slips only during earthquakes. Aftershocks represent the failure of second-order asperities which are dragged along by the creeping fault zone. ?? 1987.

  7. Landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harp, E.L.; Jibson, R.W.

    1996-01-01

    The 17 January 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake (Mw, = 6.7) triggered more than 11,000 landslides over an area of about 10,000 km2. Most of the landslides were concentrated in a 1000-km2 area that included the Santa Susana Mountains and the mountains north of the Santa Clara River valley. We mapped landslides triggered by the earthquake in the field and from 1:60,000-nominal-scale aerial photography provided by the U.S. Air Force and taken the morning of the earthquake; these mapped landslides were subsequently digitized and plotted in a GIS-based format. Most of the triggered landslides were shallow (1- to 5-m thick), highly disrupted falls and slides within weakly cemented Tertiary to Pleistocene clastic sediment. Average volumes of these types of landslides were less than 1000 m3, but many had volumes exceeding 100,000 m3. The larger disrupted slides commonly had runout paths of more than 50 m, and a few traveled as far as 200 m from the bases of steep parent slopes. Deeper (>5-m thick) rotational slumps and block slides numbered in the tens to perhaps hundreds, a few of which exceeded 100,000 m3 in volume. Most of these were reactivations of previously existing landslides. The largest single landslide triggered by the earthquake was a rotational slump/block slide having a volume of 8 ?? 106 m3. Analysis of the mapped landslide distribution with respect to variations in (1) landslide susceptibility and (2) strong shaking recorded by hundreds of instruments will form the basis of a seismic landslide hazard analysis of the Los Angeles area.

  8. Characterizing potentially induced earthquake rate changes in the Brawley Seismic Zone, southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

    2016-01-01

    The Brawley seismic zone (BSZ), in the Salton trough of southern California, has a history of earthquake swarms and geothermal energy exploitation. Some earthquake rate changes may have been induced by fluid extraction and injection activity at local geothermal fields, particularly at the North Brawley Geothermal Field (NBGF) and at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF). We explore this issue by examining earthquake rate changes and interevent distance distributions in these fields. In Oklahoma and Arkansas, where considerable wastewater injection occurs, increases in background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity and decreases in interevent distance were indicative of fluid‐injection‐induced seismicity. Here, we test if similar changes occur that may be associated with fluid injection and extraction in geothermal areas. We use stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence models to detect changes in the underlying seismogenic processes, shown by statistically significant changes in the model parameters. The most robust model changes in the SSGF roughly occur when large changes in net fluid production occur, but a similar correlation is not seen in the NBGF. Also, although both background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity increased for fluid‐injection‐induced earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas, the background rate increases significantly in the BSZ only, roughly corresponding with net fluid production rate increases. Moreover, in both fields the interevent spacing does not change significantly during active energy projects. This suggests that, although geothermal field activities in a tectonically active region may not significantly change the physics of earthquake interactions, earthquake rates may still be driven by fluid injection or extraction rates, particularly in the SSGF.

  9. Northern California Earthquake Data Center: Data Sets and Data Services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neuhauser, D. S.; Allen, R. M.; Zuzlewski, S.

    2015-12-01

    The Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) provides a permanent archive and real-time data distribution services for a unique and comprehensive data set of seismological and geophysical data sets encompassing northern and central California. We provide access to over 85 terabytes of continuous and event-based time series data from broadband, short-period, strong motion, and strain sensors as well as continuous and campaign GPS data at both standard and high sample rates. The Northen California Seismic System (NCSS), operated by UC Berkeley and USGS Menlo Park, has recorded over 900,000 events from 1984 to the present, and the NCEDC serves catalog, parametric information, moment tensors and first motion mechanisms, and time series data for these events. We also serve event catalogs, parametric information, and event waveforms for DOE enhanced geothermal system monitoring in northern California and Nevada. The NCEDC provides a several ways for users to access these data. The most recent development are web services, which provide interactive, command-line, or program-based workflow access to data. Web services use well-established server and client protocols and RESTful software architecture that allow users to easily submit queries and receive the requested data in real-time rather than through batch or email-based requests. Data are returned to the user in the appropriate format such as XML, RESP, simple text, or MiniSEED depending on the service and selected output format. The NCEDC supports all FDSN-defined web services as well as a number of IRIS-defined and NCEDC-defined services. We also continue to support older email-based and browser-based access to data. NCEDC data and web services can be found at http://www.ncedc.org and http://service.ncedc.org.

  10. The Northern California Earthquake Data Center: Seismic and Geophysical Data for Northern California and Beyond

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neuhauser, D.; Klein, F.; Zuzlewski, S.; Gee, L.; Oppenheimer, D.; Romanowicz, B.

    2004-12-01

    The Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) is an archive and distribution center for geophysical data for networks in northern and central California. The NCEDC provides timeseries data from seismic, strain, electro-magnetic, a variety of creep, tilt, and environmental sensors, and continuous and campaign GPS data in raw and RINEX formats. The NCEDC has a wide variety of interfaces for data retrieval. Timeseries data are available via a web interface and standard queued request methods such as NetDC (developed in collaboration with the IRIS DMC and other international data centers), BREQ_FAST, and EVT_FAST. Interactive data retrieval methods include STP, developed by the SCEDC, and FISSURES DHI (Data Handling Interface), an object-oriented interface developed by IRIS. The Sandia MATSEIS system is being adapted to use the FISSURES DHI interface to provide an enhanced GUI-based seismic analysis system for MATLAB. Northern California and prototype ANSS worldwide earthquake catalogs are searchable from web interfaces, and supporting phase and amplitude data can be retrieved when available. Future data sets planned for the NCEDC are seismic and strain data from the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) and SAFOD. The NCEDC is a joint project of the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory and USGS Menlo Park.

  11. Catalog of earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system in Central California, July-September 1972

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.; Meagher, K.L.; Lester, F.W.

    1973-01-01

    Numerous small earthquakes occur each day in the coast ranges of Central California. The detailed study of these earthquakes provides a tool for gaining insight into the tectonic and physical processes responsible for the generation of damaging earthquakes. This catalog contains the fundamental parameters for earthquakes located within and adjacent to the seismograph network operated by the National Center for Earthquake Research (NCER), U.S. Geological Survey, during the period July - September, 1972. The motivation for these detailed studies has been described by Pakiser and others (1969) and by Eaton and others (1970). Similar catalogs of earthquakes for the years 1969, 1970 and 1971 have been prepared by Lee and others (1972 b, c, d). Catalogs for the first and second quarters of 1972 have been prepared by Wessan and others (1972 a & b). The basic data contained in these catalogs provide a foundation for further studies. This catalog contains data on 1254 earthquakes in Central California. Arrival times at 129 seismograph stations were used to locate the earthquakes listed in this catalog. Of these, 104 are telemetered stations operated by NCER. Readings from the remaining 25 stations were obtained through the courtesy of the Seismographic Stations, University of California, Berkeley (UCB), the Earthquake Mechanism Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, San Francisco (EML); and the California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento. The Seismographic Stations of the University of California, Berkeley, have for many years published a bulletin describing earthquakes in Northern California and the surrounding area, and readings at UCB Stations from more distant events. The purpose of the present catalog is not to replace the UCB Bulletin, but rather to supplement it, by describing the seismicity of a portion of central California in much greater detail.

  12. Inventory of landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harp, Edwin L.; Jibson, Randall W.

    1995-01-01

    The 17 January 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake (M=6.7) triggered more than 11,000 landslides over an area of about 10,000 km?. Most of the landslides were concentrated in a 1,000-km? area that includes the Santa Susana Mountains and the mountains north of the Santa Clara River valley. We mapped landslides triggered by the earthquake in the field and from 1:60,000-scale aerial photography provided by the U.S. Air Force and taken the morning of the earthquake; these were subsequently digitized and plotted in a GIS-based format, as shown on the accompanying maps (which also are accessible via Internet). Most of the triggered landslides were shallow (1-5 m), highly disrupted falls and slides in weakly cemented Tertiary to Pleistocene clastic sediment. Average volumes of these types of landslides were less than 1,000 m?, but many had volumes exceeding 100,000 m?. Many of the larger disrupted slides traveled more than 50 m, and a few moved as far as 200 m from the bases of steep parent slopes. Deeper ( >5 m) rotational slumps and block slides numbered in the hundreds, a few of which exceeded 100,000 m? in volume. The largest triggered landslide was a block slide having a volume of 8X10E06 m?. Triggered landslides damaged or destroyed dozens of homes, blocked roads, and damaged oil-field infrastructure. Analysis of landslide distribution with respect to variations in (1) landslide susceptibility and (2) strong shaking recorded by hundreds of instruments will form the basis of a seismic landslide hazard analysis of the Los Angeles area.

  13. UCERF3: A new earthquake forecast for California's complex fault system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Field, Edward H.; ,

    2015-01-01

    With innovations, fresh data, and lessons learned from recent earthquakes, scientists have developed a new earthquake forecast model for California, a region under constant threat from potentially damaging events. The new model, referred to as the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or "UCERF" (http://www.WGCEP.org/UCERF3), provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and likelihood of earthquake fault rupture throughout the state. Overall the results confirm previous findings, but with some significant changes because of model improvements. For example, compared to the previous forecast (Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2), the likelihood of moderate-sized earthquakes (magnitude 6.5 to 7.5) is lower, whereas that of larger events is higher. This is because of the inclusion of multifault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously. The public-safety implications of this and other model improvements depend on several factors, including site location and type of structure (for example, family dwelling compared to a long-span bridge). Building codes, earthquake insurance products, emergency plans, and other risk-mitigation efforts will be updated accordingly. This model also serves as a reminder that damaging earthquakes are inevitable for California. Fortunately, there are many simple steps residents can take to protect lives and property.

  14. Tsunami Hazard in Crescent City, California from Kuril Islands earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dengler, L.; Uslu, B.; Barberopoulou, A.

    2007-12-01

    On November 15, Crescent City in Del Norte County, California was hit by a series of tsunami surges generated by the M = 8.3 Kuril Islands earthquake causing an estimated 9.7 million (US dollars) in damages to the small boat basin. This was the first significant tsunami loss on US territory since the 1964 Alaska tsunami. The damage occurred nearly 8 hours after the official tsunami alert bulletins had been cancelled. The tsunami caused no flooding and did not exceed the ambient high tide level. All of the damage was caused by strong currents, estimated at 12 to 15 knots, causing the floating docks to be pinned against the pilings and water to flow over them. The event highlighted problems in warning criteria and communications for a marginal event with the potential for only localized impacts, the vulnerability of harbors from a relatively modest tsunami, and the particular exposure of the Crescent City harbor area to tsunamis. It also illustrated the poor understanding of local officials of the duration of tsunami hazard. As a result of the November tsunami, interim changes were made by WCATWC to address localized hazards in areas like Crescent City. On January 13, 2007 when a M = 8.1 earthquake occurred in the Kuril Islands, a formal procedure was in place for hourly conference calls between WCATWC, California State Office of Emergency Services officials, local weather Service Offices and local emergency officials, significantly improving the decision making process and the communication among the federal, state and local officials. Kuril Island tsunamis are relatively common at Crescent City. Since 1963, five tsunamis generated by Kuril Island earthquakes have been recorded on the Crescent City tide gauge, two with amplitudes greater than 0.5 m. We use the MOST model to simulate the 2006, 2007 and 1994 events and to examine the difference between damaging and non-damaging events at Crescent City. Small changes in the angle of the rupture zone results can result

  15. The vertical fingerprint of earthquake cycle loading in southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howell, Samuel; Smith-Konter, Bridget; Frazer, Neil; Tong, Xiaopeng; Sandwell, David

    2016-08-01

    The San Andreas Fault System, one of the best-studied transform plate boundaries on Earth, is well known for its complex network of locked faults that slowly deform the crust in response to large-scale plate motions. Horizontal interseismic motions of the fault system are largely predictable, but vertical motions arising from tectonic sources remain enigmatic. Here we show that when carefully treated for spatial consistency, global positioning system-derived vertical velocities expose a small-amplitude (+/-2 mm yr-1), but spatially considerable (200 km), coherent pattern of uplift and subsidence straddling the fault system in southern California. We employ the statistical method of model selection to isolate this vertical velocity field from non-tectonic signals that induce velocity variations in both magnitude and direction across small distances (less than tens of kilometres; ref. ), and find remarkable agreement with the sense of vertical motions predicted by physical earthquake cycle models spanning the past few centuries. We suggest that these motions reveal the subtle, but identifiable, tectonic fingerprint of far-field flexure due to more than 300 years of fault locking and creeping depth variability. Understanding this critical component of interseismic deformation at a complex strike-slip plate boundary will better constrain regional mechanics and crustal rheology, improving the quantification of seismic hazards in southern California and beyond.

  16. Thermal infrared anomaly indicating unformed strong earthquake sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Qinglin; Qiang, Zuji

    2015-01-01

    By processing and analyzing many satellite remote sensing images in infrared channels, we found visual evidence indicating earthquake sequences. In a sequence, large earthquakes could migrate thousands of kilometers along a linear route from one land mass to another, and infrared anomalies also cover these land masses. The sequence has at least two types: (1) quakes alternately occurring at two ends of a belt, or (2) quakes progressively migrating along a far-flung route. The former can be foreshowed in a single infrared belt with a legible directed structure and higher brightness temperature; the latter can be identified in advance from the shift, veer, and deformation of more areas with a higher brightness temperature. The thermal infrared anomalies with a shorter duration are used to predict the quake-sequence evolving in a longer period. Two sorts of sequences can meet and form a more complex structure that can also be shown in advance by an anomalous infrared area. These studies on the seismic sequences will provide a potent means for analyzing earthquake-pregnant fields and estimating the location of unformed earthquake sequences.

  17. Products and Services Available from the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC) and the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, E.; Bhaskaran, A.; Chen, S.; Chowdhury, F. R.; Meisenhelter, S.; Hutton, K.; Given, D.; Hauksson, E.; Clayton, R. W.

    2010-12-01

    Currently the SCEDC archives continuous and triggered data from nearly 5000 data channels from 425 SCSN recorded stations, processing and archiving an average of 12,000 earthquakes each year. The SCEDC provides public access to these earthquake parametric and waveform data through its website www.data.scec.org and through client applications such as STP and DHI. This poster will describe the most significant developments at the SCEDC in the past year. Updated hardware: ● The SCEDC has more than doubled its waveform file storage capacity by migrating to 2 TB disks. New data holdings: ● Waveform data: Beginning Jan 1, 2010 the SCEDC began continuously archiving all high-sample-rate strong-motion channels. All seismic channels recorded by SCSN are now continuously archived and available at SCEDC. ● Portable data from El Mayor Cucapah 7.2 sequence: Seismic waveforms from portable stations installed by researchers (contributed by Elizabeth Cochran, Jamie Steidl, and Octavio Lazaro-Mancilla) have been added to the archive and are accessible through STP either as continuous data or associated with events in the SCEDC earthquake catalog. This additional data will help SCSN analysts and researchers improve event locations from the sequence. ● Real time GPS solutions from El Mayor Cucapah 7.2 event: Three component 1Hz seismograms of California Real Time Network (CRTN) GPS stations, from the April 4, 2010, magnitude 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake are available in SAC format at the SCEDC. These time series were created by Brendan Crowell, Yehuda Bock, the project PI, and Mindy Squibb at SOPAC using data from the CRTN. The El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake demonstrated definitively the power of real-time high-rate GPS data: they measure dynamic displacements directly, they do not clip and they are also able to detect the permanent (coseismic) surface deformation. ● Triggered data from the Quake Catcher Network (QCN) and Community Seismic Network (CSN): The SCEDC in

  18. Seismic activity of the East Sea, Korea offshore earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    PARK, E.; Park, S.; Hahm, I.; Kim, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Seismicity in Korea is known to be relatively low compared to China and Japan. But it seems to be more active historically, according to historical documents on earthquake. The magnitudes of historical earthquakes were estimated to be about 4 - 6 by previous studies and there were several events with magnitude over 6. Instrumental earthquakes recorded in 1978 - 2012 seem to be smaller than historical earthquakes, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) catalog. Their magnitudes are smaller than 4 in general. Although epicenters of instrumental earthquakes seem to be randomly distributed on the entire Korean Peninsula, some earthquakes occur intensively in several specific areas in the East Sea and the eastern region of Jeju Island. The areas having intensive seismic activity in the East Sea are offshore regions of Uljin (Region A), Yeongdeok (Region B), and Ulsan (Region C) from north to south. Eleven earthquakes of ML 2.0 - 3.2 occurred in Region A on April 2006. The epicenters were distributed within a radius of about 0.7 km. And the focal depths were in the range of 1.6 - 13.0 km (Kang and Shin, 2006). Kang and Shin (2006) propose that the sequence is closely related to the marginal geometry of the Ulleung Basin and the regional stress regime. Seven events with ML 2.1 - 3.0 occurred between September 12 and October 17 in 2007, and four events with ML 2.3 - 3.5 did between 07 December 2008 and 13 January 2009 in Region B. The relocations of eleven events greatly improved the epicenter locations that fall within an area with a radius of about 4 km. The relocated depths are in a range of 8 km to 14 km. According to Shin et al. (2012), the distribution of epicenters and fault plane solution of the largest earthquake in the sequences implied that the earthquake sequences are closely related to the Hupo fault at the eastern margin of Hupo basin. The sequences have been considered to have swarm seismicity pattern. In this study, we analyzed the

  19. Probability of one or more M ≥7 earthquakes in southern California in 30 years

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Savage, J.C.

    1994-01-01

    Eight earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to seven have occurred in southern California in the past 200 years. If one assumes that such events are the product of a Poisson process, the probability of one or more earthquakes of magnitude seven or larger in southern California within any 30 year interval is 67% ?? 23% (95% confidence interval). Because five of the eight M ??? 7 earthquakes in southern California in the last 200 years occurred away from the San Andreas fault system, the probability of one or more M ??? 7 earthquakes in southern California but not on the San Andreas fault system occurring within 30 years is 52% ?? 27% (95% confidence interval). -Author

  20. Earthquakes, Tsunamis, and Storms Recorded at Crescent City, California, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelsey, H. M.; Hemphill-Haley, E.; Loofbourrow, C.; Caldwell, D. J.; Graehl, N. A.; Robinson, M.

    2015-12-01

    Stratigraphic evidence for coseismic land-level change, tsunamis, and storms is found beneath freshwater marshes in coastal northern California at Crescent City (CC). Previous studies at CC have focused on tsunamis, including the 1964 farfield tsunami from the Alaska earthquake, and nearfield tsunamis from earthquakes in the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). In addition to new data on tsunami inundation and coseismic land-level change, evidence for deposition by large storms shows another significant coastal hazard for the area. Our results are from three freshwater wetland sites at CC: Marhoffer Creek, Elk Creek, and Sand Mine. Marhoffer Creek marsh is adjacent to the coast about 5 km north of CC, and at an elevation of > 3.4 m above NAVD88 (>1 m above highest tides). C-14 and diatom data show it has been a freshwater wetland for at least the past 1,800 yr. We identify tsunami deposits associated with two CSZ earthquakes (1700 C.E. and 1,650 yr BP) at Marhoffer Creek. Diatom data show that coseismic subsidence accompanied the 1700 C.E. earthquake; the tsunami deposit from that event extends 550 m inland from the beach. Cs-137 data show that thin sand layers about 70 m from the beach and 20 cm below the marsh surface were deposited by the farfield tsunami in 1964. Intercalated between the 1964 and 1700 tsunami deposits, and extending as far inland as the 1964 deposit, are storm deposits consisting of discontinuous layers of sand and detrital peat. The deposits are found in an interval about 0.5 m thick, and are perched at elevations above the highest winter tides. We surmise that at least some of these deposits record the catastrophic ARkStorm of 1861-1862. At Elk Creek wetland, diatom data confirm coseismic subsidence in 1700 in addition to tsunami deposition. The 1964 tsunami deposit is thin and found only proximal to the Elk Creek channel. At Sand Mine marsh, association with coseismic subsidence is used to differentiate CSZ tsunamis in a complex ~100 m wide

  1. LLNL earthquake impact analysis committee report on the Livermore, California, earthquakes of January 24 and 26, 1980

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-07-15

    The overall effects of the earthquakes of January 24 and 26, 1980, at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in northern California are outlined. The damage caused by those earthquakes and how employees responded are discussed. The immediate emergency actions taken by management and the subsequent measures to resume operations are summarized. Long-range plans for recovery and repair, and the seisic history of the Livermore Valley region, various investigations concerning the design-basis earthquake (DBE), and seismic criteria for structures are reviewed. Following an analysis of the Laboratory's earthquake preparedness, emergency response, and related matters a series of conclusions and recommendations are presented. Appendixes provide additional information, such as persons interviewed, seismic and site maps, and a summary of the estimated costs incurred from the earthquakes.

  2. Earthquake alarm; operating the seismograph station at the University of California, Berkeley.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stump, B.

    1980-01-01

    At the University of California seismographic stations, the task of locating and determining magnitudes for both local and distant earthquakes is a continuous one. Teleseisms must be located rapidly so that events that occur in the Pacific can be identified and the Pacific Tsunami Warning System alerted. For great earthquakes anywhere, there is a responsibility to notify public agencies such as the California Office of Emergency Services, the Federal Disaster Assistance Administration, the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, the California Seismic Safety Commission, and the American Red Cross. In the case of damaging local earthquakes, it is necessary to alert also the California Department of Water Resources, California Division of Mines and Geology, U.S Army Corps of Engineers, Federal Bureau of Reclamation, and the Bay Area Rapid Transit. These days, any earthquakes that are felt in northern California cause immediate inquiries from the news media and an interested public. The series of earthquakes that jolted the Livermore area from January 24 to 26 1980, is a good case in point. 

  3. Earthquake prediction research at the Seismological Laboratory, California Institute of Technology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spall, H.

    1979-01-01

    Nevertheless, basic earthquake-related information has always been of consuming interest to the public and the media in this part of California (fig. 2.). So it is not surprising that earthquake prediction continues to be a significant reserach program at the laboratory. Several of the current spectrum of projects related to prediction are discussed below. 

  4. Unacceptable Risk: Earthquake Hazard Mitigation in One California School District. Hazard Mitigation Case Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    California State Office of Emergency Services, Sacramento.

    Earthquakes are a perpetual threat to California's school buildings. School administrators must be aware that hazard mitigation means much more than simply having a supply of water bottles in the school; it means getting everyone involved in efforts to prevent tragedies from occurring in school building in the event of an earthquake. The PTA in…

  5. Properties of aftershock sequences in southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kisslinger, Carl; Jones, Lucile M.

    1991-07-01

    The temporal behavior of 39 aftershock sequences in southern California, 1933-1988, was modeled by the modified Omori relation. Minimum magnitudes for completeness of each sequence catalog were determined, and the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters K, p, and c, with the standard errors on each, were determined by the Ogata algorithm. The b value of each sequence was also calculated. Many of the active faults in the region, both strike slip and thrust, were sampled. The p values were graded in terms of the size of the standard error relative to the p value itself. Most of the sequences were modeled well by the Omori relation. Many of the sequences had p values close to the mean of the whole data set, 1.11±0.25, but values significantly different from the mean, as low as 0.7 and as high as 1.8, exist. No correlation of p with either the b value of the sequence or the mainshock magnitude was found. The results suggest a direct correlation of p values is with surface heat flow, with high values in the Salton Trough (high heat flow) and one low value in the San Bernardino Mountains and on the edge of the Ventura Basin (both low heat flow). The large fraction of the sequences with p values near the mean are at locations where the heat flow is near the regional mean, 74 mW/m2. If the hypothesis that aftershock decay rate is controlled by temperature at depth is valid, the effects of other factors such as heterogeneity of the fault zone properties are superimposed on the background rate determined by temperature. Surface heat flow is taken as an indicator of crustal temperature at hypocentral depths, but the effects on heat flow of convective heat transport and variations in near-surface thermal conductivity invalidate any simple association of local variations in heat flow with details of the subsurface temperature distribution. The interpretation is that higher temperatures in the aftershock source volume caused shortened stress relaxation times in the fault

  6. The 2013 Crete (Hellenic Arc) Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karakostas, V. G.; Papadimitriou, E. E.; Vallianatos, F.

    2014-12-01

    The western Hellenic Arc is a well known place of active interplate deformation, where the convergence motion vector is perpendicular to the subduction front. On 12 October 2013 this area was hit by a strong (Mw=6.7) earthquake, occurred on a thrust fault onto the coupled part of the overriding and descending plates, with the compression axis being oriented in the direction of plate convergence. This was the first strong (M>6.0) event to have occurred onto this segment of the descending slab, which has accommodated the largest (M8.3) known earthquake in the Mediterranean area, and to be recorded by the Hellenic Unified Seismological Network (HUSN) that has been considerably improved in the last five years. The first 2-days relocated seismicity shows activation of the upper part of the descending slab, downdip of the plate interface and forming a relatively narrow aftershock area on map view. The less densely visited by aftershocks area, where the main shock is also encompassed, is considered as the high-slip area along the downdip portion of the subducting plane. Dense concentration of the intraslab aftershocks are probably due to the increase of static stress generated by the main shock. A spectacular feature of the aftershock activity concerns the lateral extension of the slipped area, which appears very sharply defined. This provides evidence on localized coupling and aseismically creeping areas, explaining the low coupling ratio in the Hellenic Arc, as it derives from comparison between relative plate motion and seismic energy release. Elucidating the issue of how far the associated large-slip zone might be extended along the plate interface during the main rupture is crucial in assessing future earthquake hazards from subduction events in the study area. This research has been co-funded by the European Union (European Social Fund) and Greek national resources under the framework of the "THALES Program: SEISMO FEAR HELLARC" project.

  7. Foreshock Sequences and Short-Term Earthquake Predictability on East Pacific Rise Transform Faults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGuire, J. J.; Boettcher, M. S.; Jordan, T. H.

    2004-12-01

    A predominant view of continental seismicity postulates that all earthquakes initiate in a similar manner regardless of their eventual size and that earthquake triggering can be described by an Endemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model [e.g. Ogata, 1988, Helmstetter and Sorenette 2002]. These null hypotheses cannot be rejected as an explanation for the relative abundances of foreshocks and aftershocks to large earthquakes in California [Helmstetter et al., 2003]. An alternative location for testing this hypothesis is mid-ocean ridge transform faults (RTFs), which have many properties that are distinct from continental transform faults: most plate motion is accommodated aseismically, many large earthquakes are slow events enriched in low-frequency radiation, and the seismicity shows depleted aftershock sequences and high foreshock activity. Here we use the 1996-2001 NOAA-PMEL hydroacoustic seismicity catalog for equatorial East Pacific Rise transform faults to show that the foreshock/aftershock ratio is two orders of magnitude greater than the ETAS prediction based on global RTF aftershock abundances. We can thus reject the null hypothesis that there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks, and aftershocks on RTFs. We further demonstrate (retrospectively) that foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to achieve statistically significant short-term prediction of large earthquakes (magnitude ≥ 5.4) with good spatial (15-km) and temporal (1-hr) resolution using the NOAA-PMEL catalogs. Our very simplistic approach produces a large number of false alarms, but it successfully predicts the majority (70%) of M≥5.4 earthquakes while covering only a tiny fraction (0.15%) of the total potential space-time volume with alarms. Therefore, it achieves a large probability gain (about a factor of 500) over random guessing, despite not using any near field data. The predictability of large EPR transform earthquakes suggests

  8. THE GREAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHAKEOUT: Earthquake Science for 22 Million People

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, L.; Cox, D.; Perry, S.; Hudnut, K.; Benthien, M.; Bwarie, J.; Vinci, M.; Buchanan, M.; Long, K.; Sinha, S.; Collins, L.

    2008-12-01

    Earthquake science is being communicated to and used by the 22 million residents of southern California to improve resiliency to future earthquakes through the Great Southern California ShakeOut. The ShakeOut began when the USGS partnered with the California Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center and many other organizations to bring 300 scientists and engineers together to formulate a comprehensive description of a plausible major earthquake, released in May 2008, as the ShakeOut Scenario, a description of the impacts and consequences of a M7.8 earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault (USGS OFR2008-1150). The Great Southern California ShakeOut was a week of special events featuring the largest earthquake drill in United States history. The ShakeOut drill occurred in houses, businesses, and public spaces throughout southern California at 10AM on November 13, 2008, when southern Californians were asked to pretend that the M7.8 scenario earthquake had occurred and to practice actions that could reduce the impact on their lives. Residents, organizations, schools and businesses registered to participate in the drill through www.shakeout.org where they could get accessible information about the scenario earthquake and share ideas for better reparation. As of September 8, 2008, over 2.7 million confirmed participants had been registered. The primary message of the ShakeOut is that what we do now, before a big earthquake, will determine what our lives will be like after. The goal of the ShakeOut has been to change the culture of earthquake preparedness in southern California, making earthquakes a reality that are regularly discussed. This implements the sociological finding that 'milling,' discussing a problem with loved ones, is a prerequisite to taking action. ShakeOut milling is taking place at all levels from individuals and families, to corporations and governments. Actions taken as a result of the ShakeOut include the adoption of earthquake

  9. Influence of static stress changes on earthquake locations in southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.A.; Simpson, R.W.; Reasenberg, P.A.

    1995-01-01

    EARTHQUAKES induce changes in static stress on neighbouring faults that may delay, hasten or even trigger subsequent earthquakes1-10. The length of time over which such effects persist has a bearing on the potential contribution of stress analyses to earthquake hazard assessment, but is presently unknown. Here we use an elastic half-space model11 to estimate the static stress changes generated by damaging (magnitude M???5) earthquakes in southern California over the past 26 years, and to investigate the influence of these changes on subsequent earthquake activity. We find that, in the 1.5-year period following a M???5 earthquake, any subsequent nearby M???5 earthquake almost always ruptures a fault that is loaded towards failure by the first earthquake. After this period, damaging earthquakes are equally likely to rupture loaded and relaxed faults. Our results suggest that there is a short period of time following a damaging earthquake in southern California in which simple Coulomb failure stress models could be used to identify regions of increased seismic hazard. ?? 1995 Nature Publishing Group.

  10. A new method to identify earthquake swarms applied to seismicity near the San Jacinto Fault, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Qiong; Shearer, Peter M.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding earthquake clustering in space and time is important but also challenging because of complexities in earthquake patterns and the large and diverse nature of earthquake catalogues. Swarms are of particular interest because they likely result from physical changes in the crust, such as slow slip or fluid flow. Both swarms and clusters resulting from aftershock sequences can span a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Here we test and implement a new method to identify seismicity clusters of varying sizes and discriminate them from randomly occurring background seismicity. Our method searches for the closest neighbouring earthquakes in space and time and compares the number of neighbours to the background events in larger space/time windows. Applying our method to California's San Jacinto Fault Zone (SJFZ), we find a total of 89 swarm-like groups. These groups range in size from 0.14 to 7.23 km and last from 15 min to 22 d. The most striking spatial pattern is the larger fraction of swarms at the northern and southern ends of the SJFZ than its central segment, which may be related to more normal-faulting events at the two ends. In order to explore possible driving mechanisms, we study the spatial migration of events in swarms containing at least 20 events by fitting with both linear and diffusion migration models. Our results suggest that SJFZ swarms are better explained by fluid flow because their estimated linear migration velocities are far smaller than those of typical creep events while large values of best-fitting hydraulic diffusivity are found.

  11. Triggering of tsunamigenic aftershocks from large strike-slip earthquakes: Analysis of the November 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Tom

    2005-10-01

    The November 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence started with a Mw = 8.0 left-lateral main shock on 16 November and was followed by a series of aftershocks with primarily thrust mechanisms. The earthquake sequence was associated with a locally damaging tsunami on the islands of New Ireland and nearby New Britain, Bougainville, and Buka. Results from numerical tsunami-propagation models of the main shock and two of the largest thrust aftershocks (Mw > 7.0) indicate that the largest tsunami was caused by an aftershock located near the southeastern termination of the main shock, off the southern tip of New Ireland (Aftershock 1). Numerical modeling and tide gauge records at regional and far-field distances indicate that the main shock also generated tsunami waves. Large horizontal displacements associated with the main shock in regions of steep bathymetry accentuated tsunami generation for this event. Most of the damage on Bougainville and Buka Islands was caused by focusing and amplification of tsunami energy from a ridge wave between the source region and these islands. Modeling of changes in the Coulomb failure stress field caused by the main shock indicate that Aftershock 1 was likely triggered by static stress changes, provided the fault was on or synthetic to the New Britain interplate thrust as specified by the Harvard CMT mechanism. For other possible focal mechanisms of Aftershock 1 and the regional occurrence of thrust aftershocks in general, evidence for static stress change triggering is not as clear. Other triggering mechanisms such as changes in dynamic stress may also have been important. The 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence provides evidence that tsunamis caused by thrust aftershocks can be triggered by large strike-slip earthquakes. Similar tectonic regimes that include offshore accommodation structures near large strike-slip faults are found in southern California, the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, along the Queen Charlotte fault in British Columbia

  12. Liquefaction at Oceano, California, during the 2003 San Simeon earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, T.L.; Noce, T.E.; Bennett, M.J.; Tinsley, J. C.; Rosenberg, L.I.

    2005-01-01

    The 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon, California, earthquake caused liquefaction-induced lateral spreading at Oceano at an unexpectedly large distance from the seismogenic rupture. We conclude that the liquefaction was caused by ground motion that was enhanced by both rupture directivity in the mainshock and local site amplification by unconsolidated fine-grained deposits. Liquefaction occurred in sandy artificial fill and undisturbed eolian sand and fluvial deposits. The largest and most damaging lateral spread was caused by liquefaction of artificial fill; the head of this lateral spread coincided with the boundary between the artificial fill and undisturbed eolian sand deposits. Values of the liquefaction potential index, in general, were greater than 5 at liquefaction sites, the threshold value that has been proposed for liquefaction hazard mapping. Although the mainshock ground motion at Oceano was not recorded, peak ground acceleration was estimated to range from 0.25 and 0.28g on the basis of the liquefaction potential index and aftershock recordings. The estimates fall within the range of peak ground acceleration values associated with the modified Mercalli intensity = VII reported at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) "Did You Feel It?" web site.

  13. A Study of the 2014 Pisagua, Chile Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crempien, J. G. F.; Ji, C.

    2014-12-01

    The 2014 Pisagua, Chile earthquake sequence, which struck the famous northern Chilean seismic gap, started with a Mw 6.7 earthquake on March 16th. This was followed by a 15 day-long earthquake swarm, including multiple Mw>6 earthquakes migrating northward on the plate interface, eventually resulting in a Mw 8.1 megathrust on April 1st. This produced an energetic aftershock sequence with one Mw 7.7 aftershock occurring on April 3rd. We have studied this interesting earthquake sequence by jointly inverting teleseismic data as well as strong motion data from the IPOC/CSN network. The initial efforts focused on the kinematic rupture parameters of the Mw 6.7 foreshock, Mw 8.1 mainshock, and Mw 7.7 aftershock. Our results show that the Mw 6.7 foreshock was a shallow intraplate event with a major asperity at ~12 km depth. Although its rupture was entirely within the overriding plate, this event created a strong static Coulomb stress perturbation on the plate interface, with a maximum value of ~0.2 MPa. We find that the hypocenters of its two largest earthquakes, Mw 6.4 on March 17th and Mw 6.2 on March 23rd are both located right on the plate interface where the Coulomb stress was increased. The rupture of the Mw 8.1 mainshock, spanning about 120 km along strike, initially travels down dip, roughly N100°E, with an apparent speed of 2.5 km/s for the first 25 seconds. Between 25 and 40 seconds, the rupture travels mainly southward (~N150°E) with an apparent speed of ~3 km/s, and more than 50% of the total seismic moment release in two major asperities. The third stage of the earthquake took place between 40 and 70 seconds with the rupture propagating slowly (<2 km/s) towards the northern end of the coseismic rupture zone. The slip of the Mw 7.7 aftershock is heterogeneous, with three well-resolved asperities, visually complementary to the rupture of the mainshock. We also notice that the complex rupture patterns associated with this interesting earthquake sequence

  14. Products and Services Available from the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC) and the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, S. E.; Yu, E.; Bhaskaran, A.; Chowdhury, F. R.; Meisenhelter, S.; Hutton, K.; Given, D.; Hauksson, E.; Clayton, R. W.

    2011-12-01

    Currently, the SCEDC archives continuous and triggered data from nearly 8400 data channels from 425 SCSN recorded stations, processing and archiving an average of 6.4 TB of continuous waveforms and 12,000 earthquakes each year. The SCEDC provides public access to these earthquake parametric and waveform data through its website www.data.scec.org and through client applications such as STP and DHI. This poster will describe the most significant developments at the SCEDC during 2011. New website design: ? The SCEDC has revamped its website. The changes make it easier for users to search the archive, discover updates and new content. These changes also improve our ability to manage and update the site. New data holdings: ? Post processing on El Mayor Cucapah 7.2 sequence continues. To date there have been 11847 events reviewed. Updates are available in the earthquake catalog immediately. ? A double difference catalog (Hauksson et. al 2011) spanning 1981 to 6/30/11 will be available for download at www.data.scec.org and available via STP. ? A focal mechanism catalog determined by Yang et al. 2011 is available for distribution at www.data.scec.org. ? Waveforms from Southern California NetQuake stations are now being stored in the SCEDC archive and available via STP as event associated waveforms. Amplitudes from these stations are also being stored in the archive and used by ShakeMap. ? As part of a NASA/AIST project in collaboration with JPL and SIO, the SCEDC will receive real time 1 sps streams of GPS displacement solutions from the California Real Time Network (http://sopac.ucsd.edu/projects/realtime; Genrich and Bock, 2006, J. Geophys. Res.). These channels will be archived at the SCEDC as miniSEED waveforms, which then can be distributed to the user community via applications such as STP. Improvements in the user tool STP: ? STP sac output now includes picks from the SCSN. New archival methods: ? The SCEDC is exploring the feasibility of archiving and distributing

  15. Aftershocks of the 2014 South Napa, California, Earthquake: Complex faulting on secondary faults

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Shelly, David R.

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the aftershock sequence of the 2014 MW6.0 South Napa, California, earthquake. Low-magnitude aftershocks missing from the network catalog are detected by applying a matched-filter approach to continuous seismic data, with the catalog earthquakes serving as the waveform templates. We measure precise differential arrival times between events, which we use for double-difference event relocation in a 3D seismic velocity model. Most aftershocks are deeper than the mainshock slip, and most occur west of the mapped surface rupture. While the mainshock coseismic and postseismic slip appears to have occurred on the near-vertical, strike-slip West Napa fault, many of the aftershocks occur in a complex zone of secondary faulting. Earthquake locations in the main aftershock zone, near the mainshock hypocenter, delineate multiple dipping secondary faults. Composite focal mechanisms indicate strike-slip and oblique-reverse faulting on the secondary features. The secondary faults were moved towards failure by Coulomb stress changes from the mainshock slip. Clusters of aftershocks north and south of the main aftershock zone exhibit vertical strike-slip faulting more consistent with the West Napa Fault. The northern aftershocks correspond to the area of largest mainshock coseismic slip, while the main aftershock zone is adjacent to the fault area that has primarily slipped postseismically. Unlike most creeping faults, the zone of postseismic slip does not appear to contain embedded stick-slip patches that would have produced on-fault aftershocks. The lack of stick-slip patches along this portion of the fault may contribute to the low productivity of the South Napa aftershock sequence.

  16. California Earthquake Clearinghouse Activation for August 24, 2014, M6.0 South Napa Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosinski, A.; Parrish, J.; Mccrink, T. P.; Tremayne, H.; Ortiz, M.; Greene, M.; Berger, J.; Blair, J. L.; Johnson, M.; Miller, K.; Seigel, J.; Long, K.; Turner, F.

    2014-12-01

    The Clearinghouse's principal functions are to 1) coordinate field investigations of earth scientists, engineers, and other participating researchers; 2) facilitate sharing of observations through regular meetings and through the Clearinghouse website; and 3) notify disaster responders of crucial observations or results. Shortly after 3:20 a.m., on August 24, 2014, Clearinghouse management committee organizations, the California Geological Survey (CGS), the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI), the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the California Office of Emergency Services (CalOES), and the California Seismic Safety Commission (CSSC), authorized activation of a virtual Clearinghouse and a physical Clearinghouse location. The California Geological Survey, which serves as the permanent, lead coordination organization for the Clearinghouse, provided all coordination with the state for all resources required for Clearinghouse activation. The Clearinghouse physical location, including mobile satellite communications truck, was opened at a Caltrans maintenance facility located at 3161 Jefferson Street, in Napa. This location remained active through August 26, 2014, during which time it drew the participation of over 100 experts from more than 40 different organizations, and over 1730 remote visitors via the Virtual Clearinghouse and online data compilation map. The Clearinghouse conducted three briefing calls each day with the State Operations Center (SOC) and Clearinghouse partners, and also conducted nightly briefings, accessible to remote participants via webex, with field personnel. Data collected by field researchers was compiled into a map through the efforts of EERI and USGS volunteers in the Napa Clearinghouse. EERI personnel continued to provide updates to the compilation map over an extended period of time following de-activation of the Clearinghouse. In addition, EERI managed the Clearinghouse website. Two overflights were conducted, for

  17. Collaborative Projects at the Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neuhauser, D.; Oppenheimer, D.; Zuzlewski, S.; Gee, L.; Murray, M.; Bassett, A.; Prescott, W.; Romanowicz, B.

    2001-12-01

    SELECT command, to perform queries on the GDVs, and developed a program which converts the MSQL to an SQL request. MSQL2SQL converts the MSQL command into a parse tree, and defines an API allowing each datacenter to traverse the parse tree and revise it to produce a data center-specific SQL request. The NCEDC converted the IRIS SeismiQuery program to use the GDVs and MSQL, installed it at the NCEDC, and distributed the software to IRIS, SCEC-DC, and other interested parties. The resulting program should be much easier to install and support at other data centers. The NCEDC is also working on several data center integration projects in order to provide users with seamless access to data. The NCEDC is collaborating with IRIS on the NETDC project and with UNAVCO on the GPS Seamless Archive Centers initiative. Through the newly formed California Integrated Seismic Network, we are working with the SCEC-DC to provide unified access to California earthquake data.

  18. Preparation of isoseismal maps and summaries of reported effects for pre-1900 California earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Toppozada, Tousson R.; Real, Charles R.; Bezore, Stephen P.; Parke, David L.

    1981-01-01

    This is the second annual report of a three year project to clarify the earthquake history of California for the period before 1900. More than four thousand additional newspaper issues were searched for earthquake reports, bringing the total number of issues examined to more than eleven thousand. About one quarter of the issues searched have provided earthquake reports. Summaries of these reports, emphasizing the information used to assign earthquake intensities, were prepared. The strength and spatial distribution of the reported earthquake effects were used to estimate the magnitude and epicentral location of the earthquakes. The third annual report, projected for August 1981, will provide isoseismal maps showing the distribution of the intensity reports which control the estimates of magnitude and epicenter.

  19. Liquefaction caused by the 2009 Olancha, California (USA), M5.2 earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, T.L.; Jayko, A.S.; Hauksson, E.; Fletcher, J.P.B.; Noce, T.E.; Bennett, M.J.; Dietel, C.M.; Hudnut, K.W.

    2010-01-01

    The October 3, 2009 (01:16:00 UTC), Olancha M5.2 earthquake caused extensive liquefaction as well as permanent horizontal ground deformation within a 1.2 km2area earthquake in Owens Valley in eastern California (USA). Such liquefaction is rarely observed during earthquakes of M ≤ 5.2. We conclude that subsurface conditions, not unusual ground motion, were the primary factors contributing to the liquefaction. The liquefaction occurred in very liquefiable sands at shallow depth (< 2 m) in an area where the water table was near the land surface. Our investigation is relevant to both geotechnical engineering and geology. The standard engineering method for assessing liquefaction potential, the Seed–Idriss simplified procedure, successfully predicted the liquefaction despite the small earthquake magnitude. The field observations of liquefaction effects highlight a need for caution by earthquake geologists when inferring prehistoric earthquake magnitudes from paleoliquefaction features because small magnitude events may cause such features.

  20. Differential Energy Radiation from Two Earthquakes with Similar Mw: The Baja California 2010 and Haiti 2010 Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, L.; Shi, B.

    2010-12-01

    The Baja, Mexico, earthquake of the April 4, 2010, Mw 7.2 occurred in northern Baja California at shallow depth along the principal plate boundary between the North American and Pacific plates, 2 people killed in the Mexicali area. The January 12, 2010, Mw 7.0, Haiti, earthquake occurred in the vicinity of Port-au-Prince, the capital of Haiti, on the Enriquillo Plantain Garden Fault, and with estimates of almost 250,000 deaths. International media reports of such kind of disasters by Haiti earthquake is just resulted from poor building structure design comparing with Mexicali area. Although the moment magnitude of the Haiti earthquake is similar as the Baja earthquake, but the radiated energy of the Haiti earthquake almost as 15 times as the Baja earthquake, resulting stronger near-fault ground motions. For the Haiti earthquake and Baja earthquake with the similar moment magnitude, two special finite fault models are constructed to simulate the near-fault strong ground motion for comparison purpose. We propose a new technique based on the far-field energy integrand over a simple finite fault to estimate S-wave energy radiation with associated the composite source model. The fault slip distributions on both faults are generated based on the composite source model in which the subevent-source-function is described by Brune’s pulse. The near-field peak ground accelerations (PGAs) including the shallow velocity structures (V30, average shear-velocity down to 30 m ) from the Haiti earthquake is almost as 20 times as from Baja earthquake, while the peak ground velocities (PGVs) including the shallow velocity structures from Yushu earthquake is almost as 8 times as from the Baja earthquake. Therefore, the radiated seismic energy plays a significant role in determining the levels of strong grounds in which stronger ground accelerations usually could cause much more property damages on the ground. The source rupture dynamics related to the frictional overshoot and

  1. The 2011 Hawthorne, Nevada, Earthquake Sequence; Shallow Normal Faulting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, K. D.; Johnson, C.; Davies, J. A.; Agbaje, T.; Knezevic Antonijevic, S.; Kent, G.

    2011-12-01

    An energetic sequence of shallow earthquakes that began in early March 2011 in western Nevada, near the community of Hawthorne, has slowly decreased in intensity through mid-2011. To date about 1300 reviewed earthquake locations have been compiled; we have computed moment tensors for the larger earthquakes and have developed a set of high-precision locations for all reviewed events. The sequence to date has included over 50 earthquakes ML 3 and larger with the largest at Mw 4.6. Three 6-channel portable stations configured with broadband sensors and accelerometers were installed by April 20. Data from the portable instruments is telemetered through NSL's microwave backbone to Reno where it is integrated with regional network data for real-time notifications, ShakeMaps, and routine event analysis. The data is provided in real-time to NEIC, CISN and the IRIS DMC. The sequence is located in a remote area about 15-20 km southwest of Hawthorne in the footwall block of the Wassuk Range fault system. An initial concern was that the sequence might be associated with volcanic processes due to the proximity of late Quaternary volcanic flows; there have been no volcanic signatures observed in near source seismograms. An additional concern, as the sequence has proceeded, was a clear progression eastward toward the Wassuk Range front fault. The east dipping range bounding fault is capable of M 7+ events, and poses a significant hazard to the community of Hawthorne and local military facilities. The Hawthorne Army Depot is an ordinance storage facility and the nation's storage site for surplus mercury. The sequence is within what has been termed the 'Mina Deflection' of the Central Walker Lane Belt. Faulting along the Whiskey Flat section of the Wassuk front fault would be primarily down-to-the-east, with an E-W extension direction; moment tensors for the 2011 earthquake show a range of extension directions from E-W to NW-SE, suggesting a possible dextral component to the Wassuk

  2. Monte Carlo Method for Determining Earthquake Recurrence Parameters from Short Paleoseismic Catalogs: Example Calculations for California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, Tom

    2008-01-01

    Paleoearthquake observations often lack enough events at a given site to directly define a probability density function (PDF) for earthquake recurrence. Sites with fewer than 10-15 intervals do not provide enough information to reliably determine the shape of the PDF using standard maximum-likelihood techniques [e.g., Ellsworth et al., 1999]. In this paper I present a method that attempts to fit wide ranges of distribution parameters to short paleoseismic series. From repeated Monte Carlo draws, it becomes possible to quantitatively estimate most likely recurrence PDF parameters, and a ranked distribution of parameters is returned that can be used to assess uncertainties in hazard calculations. In tests on short synthetic earthquake series, the method gives results that cluster around the mean of the input distribution, whereas maximum likelihood methods return the sample means [e.g., NIST/SEMATECH, 2006]. For short series (fewer than 10 intervals), sample means tend to reflect the median of an asymmetric recurrence distribution, possibly leading to an overestimate of the hazard should they be used in probability calculations. Therefore a Monte Carlo approach may be useful for assessing recurrence from limited paleoearthquake records. Further, the degree of functional dependence among parameters like mean recurrence interval and coefficient of variation can be established. The method is described for use with time-independent and time-dependent PDF?s, and results from 19 paleoseismic sequences on strike-slip faults throughout the state of California are given.

  3. Monte Carlo method for determining earthquake recurrence parameters from short paleoseismic catalogs: Example calculations for California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, T.

    2008-01-01

    Paleoearthquake observations often lack enough events at a given site to directly define a probability density function (PDF) for earthquake recurrence. Sites with fewer than 10-15 intervals do not provide enough information to reliably determine the shape of the PDF using standard maximum-likelihood techniques (e.g., Ellsworth et al., 1999). In this paper I present a method that attempts to fit wide ranges of distribution parameters to short paleoseismic series. From repeated Monte Carlo draws, it becomes possible to quantitatively estimate most likely recurrence PDF parameters, and a ranked distribution of parameters is returned that can be used to assess uncertainties in hazard calculations. In tests on short synthetic earthquake series, the method gives results that cluster around the mean of the input distribution, whereas maximum likelihood methods return the sample means (e.g., NIST/SEMATECH, 2006). For short series (fewer than 10 intervals), sample means tend to reflect the median of an asymmetric recurrence distribution, possibly leading to an overestimate of the hazard should they be used in probability calculations. Therefore a Monte Carlo approach may be useful for assessing recurrence from limited paleoearthquake records. Further, the degree of functional dependence among parameters like mean recurrence interval and coefficient of variation can be established. The method is described for use with time-independent and time-dependent PDFs, and results from 19 paleoseismic sequences on strike-slip faults throughout the state of California are given.

  4. Physically-based modelling of the competition between surface uplift and erosion caused by earthquakes and earthquake sequences.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hovius, Niels; Marc, Odin; Meunier, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    Large earthquakes deform Earth's surface and drive topographic growth in the frontal zones of mountain belts. They also induce widespread mass wasting, reducing relief. Preliminary studies have proposed that above a critical magnitude earthquake would induce more erosion than uplift. Other parameters such as fault geometry or earthquake depth were not considered yet. A new seismologically consistent model of earthquake induced landsliding allow us to explore the importance of parameters such as earthquake depth and landscape steepness. We have compared these eroded volume prediction with co-seismic surface uplift computed with Okada's deformation theory. We found that the earthquake depth and landscape steepness to be the most important parameters compared to the fault geometry (dip and rake). In contrast with previous studies we found that largest earthquakes will always be constructive and that only intermediate size earthquake (Mw ~7) may be destructive. Moreover, with landscapes insufficiently steep or earthquake sources sufficiently deep earthquakes are predicted to be always constructive, whatever their magnitude. We have explored the long term topographic contribution of earthquake sequences, with a Gutenberg Richter distribution or with a repeating, characteristic earthquake magnitude. In these models, the seismogenic layer thickness, that sets the depth range over which the series of earthquakes will distribute, replaces the individual earthquake source depth.We found that in the case of Gutenberg-Richter behavior, relevant for the Himalayan collision for example, the mass balance could remain negative up to Mw~8 for earthquakes with a sub-optimal uplift contribution (e.g., transpressive or gently-dipping earthquakes). Our results indicate that earthquakes have probably a more ambivalent role in topographic building than previously anticipated, and suggest that some fault systems may not induce average topographic growth over their locked zone during a

  5. An ongoing earthquake sequence near Dhaka, Bangladesh, from regional recordings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howe, M.; Mondal, D. R.; Akhter, S. H.; Kim, W.; Seeber, L.; Steckler, M. S.

    2013-12-01

    Earthquakes in and around the syntaxial region between the continent-continent collision of the Himalayan arc and oceanic subduction of the Sunda arc result primarily from the convergence of India and Eurasia-Sunda plates along two fronts. The northern front, the convergence of the Indian and Eurasian plates, has produced the Himalayas. The eastern front, the convergence of the Indian and Sunda plates, ranges from ocean-continent subduction at the Andaman Arc and Burma Arc, and transitions to continent-continent collision to the north at the Assam Syntaxis in northeast India. The India-Sunda convergence at the Burma Arc is extremely oblique. The boundary-normal convergence rate is ~17 mm/yr while the boundary-parallel rate is ~45 mm/yr including the well-known Sagaing strike-slip fault, which accommodates about half the shear component. This heterogeneous tectonic setting produces multiple earthquake sources that need to be considered when assessing seismic hazard and risk in this region. The largest earthquakes, just as in other subduction systems, are expected to be interplate events that occur on the low-angle megathrusts, such as the Mw 9.2 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and the 1762 earthquake along the Arakan margin. These earthquakes are known to produce large damage over vast areas, but since they account for large fault motions they are relatively rare. The majority of current seismicity in the study area is intraplate. Most of the seismicity associated with the Burma Arc subduction system is in the down-going slab, including the shallow-dipping part below the megathrust flooring the accretionary wedge. The strike of the wedge is ~N-S and Dhaka lies at its outer limit. One particular source relevant to seismic risk in Dhaka is illuminated by a multi-year sequence of earthquakes in Bangladesh less than 100 km southeast of Dhaka. The population in Dhaka (now at least 15 million) has been increasing dramatically due to rapid urbanization. The vulnerability

  6. Characterization of the 2015 Dallas-Irving Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quinones, L. A.; DeShon, H. R.; Scales, M. M.; Hayward, C.

    2015-12-01

    In January 2015, a pair of M3.6 earthquakes and numerous M3+ occurred along the border of Irving and Dallas, Texas, in a heavily populated portion of the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. The Irving-Dallas swarm occurs at the eastern edge of the Fort Worth (Barnett Shale) Basin, an active shale gas production area associated with induced earthquakes. However, the nearest injection well is over 10 km to the northwest and the only nearby production well shutdown in 2012. The cause of the current swarm remains unknown. A temporary seismic network was deployed in early January 2015 to acquire data to improve earthquake location estimates and better characterize the earthquake sequence. Twenty-four stations were deployed, including 13 short-term Texans and 2 USGS NetQuakes instruments. Here, we present high-resolution relative earthquake locations derived using waveform cross-correlation and double difference techniques using both P and S-waves. Waveform data shows a high degree of similarity for both phases throughout the sequence. The P-wave data exhibit power at frequencies ranging from 10 to 40 Hz, while the S-wave data typically exhibit power in the range of 2 to 10 Hz. Initial catalog locations (January-July, 2015) reveal a spatially concentrated sequence of over 480 events, ranging from M0.0 to M3.6, migrating along a NE-SW striking fault. The sequence migrated from southwest to northeast over 4 km in January, but has since migrated back to the southwest. Events occur between 4-8 km in depth, consistent with faulting in the Precambrian basement. Fault plane solutions and event locations suggest a ~70° SE dipping normal fault. Event locations within or near the granitic basement, a series of M3.3+ events, a fault area of ~16 km2, and a NE-SW trending normal fault are consistent with the characteristics of previous North Texas earthquake sequences.

  7. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Earthquake Occurrence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coordinated by Bakun, William H.; Prescott, William H.

    1993-01-01

    Professional Paper 1550 seeks to understand the M6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake itself. It examines how the fault that generated the earthquake ruptured, searches for and evaluates precursors that may have indicated an earthquake was coming, reviews forecasts of the earthquake, and describes the geology of the earthquake area and the crustal forces that affect this geology. Some significant findings were: * Slip during the earthquake occurred on 35 km of fault at depths ranging from 7 to 20 km. Maximum slip was approximately 2.3 m. The earthquake may not have released all of the strain stored in rocks next to the fault and indicates a potential for another damaging earthquake in the Santa Cruz Mountains in the near future may still exist. * The earthquake involved a large amount of uplift on a dipping fault plane. Pre-earthquake conventional wisdom was that large earthquakes in the Bay area occurred as horizontal displacements on predominantly vertical faults. * The fault segment that ruptured approximately coincided with a fault segment identified in 1988 as having a 30% probability of generating a M7 earthquake in the next 30 years. This was one of more than 20 relevant earthquake forecasts made in the 83 years before the earthquake. * Calculations show that the Loma Prieta earthquake changed stresses on nearby faults in the Bay area. In particular, the earthquake reduced stresses on the Hayward Fault which decreased the frequency of small earthquakes on it. * Geological and geophysical mapping indicate that, although the San Andreas Fault can be mapped as a through going fault in the epicentral region, the southwest dipping Loma Prieta rupture surface is a separate fault strand and one of several along this part of the San Andreas that may be capable of generating earthquakes.

  8. Triggered earthquakes and the 1811-1812 New Madrid, central United States, earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.

    2001-01-01

    The 1811-1812 New Madrid, central United States, earthquake sequence included at least three events with magnitudes estimated at well above M 7.0. I discuss evidence that the sequence also produced at least three substantial triggered events well outside the New Madrid Seismic Zone, most likely in the vicinity of Cincinnati, Ohio. The largest of these events is estimated to have a magnitude in the low to mid M 5 range. Events of this size are large enough to cause damage, especially in regions with low levels of preparedness. Remotely triggered earthquakes have been observed in tectonically active regions in recent years, but not previously in stable continental regions. The results of this study suggest, however, that potentially damaging triggered earthquakes may be common following large mainshocks in stable continental regions. Thus, in areas of low seismic activity such as central/ eastern North America, the hazard associated with localized source zones might be more far reaching than previously recognized. The results also provide additional evidence that intraplate crust is critically stressed, such that small stress changes are especially effective at triggering earthquakes.

  9. Forecasting California's earthquakes: What can we expect in the next 30 years?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Field, Edward H.; Milner, Kevin R.; ,

    2008-01-01

    In a new comprehensive study, scientists have determined that the chance of having one or more magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquakes in the California area over the next 30 years is greater than 99%. Such quakes can be deadly, as shown by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta and the 1994 magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquakes. The likelihood of at least one even more powerful quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 46%?such a quake is most likely to occur in the southern half of the State. Building codes, earthquake insurance, and emergency planning will be affected by these new results, which highlight the urgency to prepare now for the powerful quakes that are inevitable in California?s future.

  10. Database of potential sources for earthquakes larger than magnitude 6 in Northern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,

    1996-01-01

    The Northern California Earthquake Potential (NCEP) working group, composed of many contributors and reviewers in industry, academia and government, has pooled its collective expertise and knowledge of regional tectonics to identify potential sources of large earthquakes in northern California. We have created a map and database of active faults, both surficial and buried, that forms the basis for the northern California portion of the national map of probabilistic seismic hazard. The database contains 62 potential sources, including fault segments and areally distributed zones. The working group has integrated constraints from broadly based plate tectonic and VLBI models with local geologic slip rates, geodetic strain rate, and microseismicity. Our earthquake source database derives from a scientific consensus that accounts for conflict in the diverse data. Our preliminary product, as described in this report brings to light many gaps in the data, including a need for better information on the proportion of deformation in fault systems that is aseismic.

  11. Multifractal Omori law for earthquake triggering: new tests on the California, Japan and worldwide catalogues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouillon, G.; Sornette, D.; Ribeiro, E.

    2009-07-01

    The Multifractal Stress-Activated model is a statistical model of triggered seismicity based on mechanical and thermodynamic principles. It predicts that, above a triggering magnitude cut-off M0, the exponent p of the Omori law for the time decay of the rate of aftershocks is a linear increasing function p(M) = a0M + b0 of the main shock magnitude M. We previously reported empirical support for this prediction, using the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) catalogue. Here, we confirm this observation using an updated, longer version of the same catalogue, as well as new methods to estimate p. One of this methods is the newly defined Scaling Function Analysis (SFA), adapted from the wavelet transform. This method is able to measure a mathematical singularity (hence a p-value), erasing the possible regular part of a time-series. The SFA also proves particularly efficient to reveal the coexistence and superposition of several types of relaxation laws (typical Omori sequences and short-lived swarms sequences) which can be mixed within the same catalogue. Another new method consists in monitoring the largest aftershock magnitude observed in successive time intervals, and thus shortcuts the problem of missing events with small magnitudes in aftershock catalogues. The same methods are used on data from the worldwide Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalogue and show results compatible with those of Southern California. For the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) catalogue, we still observe a linear dependence of p on M, but with a smaller slope. The SFA shows however that results for this catalogue may be biased by numerous swarm sequences, despite our efforts to remove them before the analysis.

  12. The 2007 Nazko, British Columbia, earthquake sequence: Injection of magma deep in the crust beneath the Anahim volcanic belt

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cassidy, J.F.; Balfour, N.; Hickson, C.; Kao, H.; White, Rickie; Caplan-Auerbach, J.; Mazzotti, S.; Rogers, Gary C.; Al-Khoubbi, I.; Bird, A.L.; Esteban, L.; Kelman, M.; Hutchinson, J.; McCormack, D.

    2011-01-01

    On 9 October 2007, an unusual sequence of earthquakes began in central British Columbia about 20 km west of the Nazko cone, the most recent (circa 7200 yr) volcanic center in the Anahim volcanic belt. Within 25 hr, eight earthquakes of magnitude 2.3-2.9 occurred in a region where no earthquakes had previously been recorded. During the next three weeks, more than 800 microearthquakes were located (and many more detected), most at a depth of 25-31 km and within a radius of about 5 km. After about two months, almost all activity ceased. The clear P- and S-wave arrivals indicated that these were high-frequency (volcanic-tectonic) earthquakes and the b value of 1.9 that we calculated is anomalous for crustal earthquakes but consistent with volcanic-related events. Analysis of receiver functions at a station immediately above the seismicity indicated a Moho near 30 km depth. Precise relocation of the seismicity using a double-difference method suggested a horizontal migration at the rate of about 0:5 km=d, with almost all events within the lowermost crust. Neither harmonic tremor nor long-period events were observed; however, some spasmodic bursts were recorded and determined to be colocated with the earthquake hypocenters. These observations are all very similar to a deep earthquake sequence recorded beneath Lake Tahoe, California, in 2003-2004. Based on these remarkable similarities, we interpret the Nazko sequence as an indication of an injection of magma into the lower crust beneath the Anahim volcanic belt. This magma injection fractures rock, producing high-frequency, volcanic-tectonic earthquakes and spasmodic bursts.

  13. Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California: a new mapping tool

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gerstenberger, Matt; Wiemer, Stefan; Jones, Lucy

    2004-01-01

    We have derived a multi-model approach to calculate time-dependent earthquake hazard resulting from earthquake clustering. This file report explains the theoretical background behind the approach, the specific details that are used in applying the method to California, as well as the statistical testing to validate the technique. We have implemented our algorithm as a real-time tool that has been automatically generating short-term hazard maps for California since May of 2002, at http://step.wr.usgs.gov

  14. Operational earthquake forecasting in California: A prototype system combining UCERF3 and CyberShake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milner, K. R.; Jordan, T. H.; Field, E. H.

    2014-12-01

    Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about time-dependent earthquake probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To attain this goal, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground motion exceedance probabilities as well as short-term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long-term forecasts of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. We have combined the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (Field et al., 2014) with the CyberShake ground-motion model of the Southern California Earthquake Center (Graves et al., 2011; Callaghan et al., this meeting) into a prototype OEF system for generating time-dependent hazard maps. UCERF3 represents future earthquake activity in terms of fault-rupture probabilities, incorporating both Reid-type renewal models and Omori-type clustering models. The current CyberShake model comprises approximately 415,000 earthquake rupture variations to represent the conditional probability of future shaking at 285 geographic sites in the Los Angeles region (~236 million horizontal-component seismograms). This combination provides significant probability gains relative to OEF models based on empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), primarily because the physics-based CyberShake simulations account for the rupture directivity, basin effects, and directivity-basin coupling that are not represented by the GMPEs.

  15. Changes in static stress on southern California faults after the 1992 Landers earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.A.; Simpson, R.W.

    1992-01-01

    THE magnitude 7.5 Landers earthquake of 28 June 1992 was the largest earthquake to strike California in 40 years. The slip that occurs in such an earthquake would be expected to induce large changes in the static stress on neighbouring faults; these changes in stress should in turn affect the likelihood of future earthquakes. Stress changes that load faults towards failure have been cited as the cause of small1-5, moderate6 and large7 earthquakes; conversely, those that relax neighbouring faults have been related to a decrease in seismicity5. Here we use an elastic half-space model8 to estimate the stress changes produced by the Landers earthquake on selected southern California faults, including the San Andreas. We find that the estimated stress changes are consistent with the triggering of four out of the five aftershocks with magnitude greater than 4.5, and that the largest changes (1-10 bar), occurring on part of the San Bernardino segment of the San Andreas fault, may have decreased the time to the next magnitude 8 earthquake by about 14 years.

  16. Potential earthquake faults offshore Southern California, from the eastern Santa Barbara Channel south to Dana Point

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fisher, M.A.; Sorlien, C.C.; Sliter, R.W.

    2009-01-01

    Urban areas in Southern California are at risk from major earthquakes, not only quakes generated by long-recognized onshore faults but also ones that occur along poorly understood offshore faults. We summarize recent research findings concerning these lesser known faults. Research by the U.S. Geological Survey during the past five years indicates that these faults from the eastern Santa Barbara Channel south to Dana Point pose a potential earthquake threat. Historical seismicity in this area indicates that, in general, offshore faults can unleash earthquakes having at least moderate (M 5-6) magnitude. Estimating the earthquake hazard in Southern California is complicated by strain partitioning and by inheritance of structures from early tectonic episodes. The three main episodes are Mesozoic through early Miocene subduction, early Miocene crustal extension coeval with rotation of the Western Transverse Ranges, and Pliocene and younger transpression related to plate-boundary motion along the San Andreas Fault. Additional complication in the analysis of earthquake hazards derives from the partitioning of tectonic strain into strike-slip and thrust components along separate but kinematically related faults. The eastern Santa Barbara Basin is deformed by large active reverse and thrust faults, and this area appears to be underlain regionally by the north-dipping Channel Islands thrust fault. These faults could produce moderate to strong earthquakes and destructive tsunamis. On the Malibu coast, earthquakes along offshore faults could have left-lateral-oblique focal mechanisms, and the Santa Monica Mountains thrust fault, which underlies the oblique faults, could give rise to large (M ??7) earthquakes. Offshore faults near Santa Monica Bay and the San Pedro shelf are likely to produce both strike-slip and thrust earthquakes along northwest-striking faults. In all areas, transverse structures, such as lateral ramps and tear faults, which crosscut the main faults, could

  17. Landslide distribution resulting from the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, B. D.; Jibson, R.

    2015-12-01

    Thousands of landslides (predominantly rock slides and rock falls) were triggered as a result of the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake sequence. Given the steep, high relief of the epicentral zones and the widely distributed population of Nepal in these regions, hundreds of fatalities occurred as a direct result of landsliding. Further, roads, hydroelectric plants, and other critical infrastructure were subjected to considerable secondary hazards including highly weakened slopes and inundation from lake impoundments that formed upslope of valley-blocking landslide dams. As part of a humanitarian and scientific mission to Nepal supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development, Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, we conducted landslide assessments throughout earthquake-affected areas (report available at http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20151142) and, in the process, developed a sense for the overall landslide distribution resulting from the earthquakes. Whereas landslides were abundant near the major earthquake epicenters, few landslides were observed in many steep areas of the country where effects would normally have been expected. For example, although avalanches and ice and rock falls occurred near Mt. Everest, located approximately 220 km from the April 25 epicenter, we noted few landslides in a similar area of steep terrain located 40 km closer to the epicenter. Similarly, although we noted entire mountainsides covered by landslides within 20 km of the mainshock epicenter, we observed many other mountainsides within this same region lacking any indication of ground disturbance. Observations of shattered ridgetops with ridge parallel fractures at several locations indicate that topographically-amplified ground shaking occurred in some areas. This, along with the complex geology and the asymmetric directionality of rupture, could help explain the landslide distribution and thus where hazards are most likely from similar future earthquakes in central Nepal.

  18. Deformation of slopes damaged during the 2015 Nepal earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosser, N. J.; Brain, M.; Densmore, A.; Jordan, C.; Williams, J.; Kincey, M.; Oven, K.

    2015-12-01

    The 2015 Nepal Earthquake Sequence (EQS; the Gorkha EQ (eqG), Mw 7.8 [25/04/15]; the Kodari EQ (eqK), Mw 6.7 [26/05/15]; and Dolakha EQ (eqD), Mw 7.3 [12/05/15], plus associated aftershocks) triggered widespread landsliding, strongly evident in satellite imagery. In addition to the observed failures, pervasive ground cracking has been widely reported in Nepal. This is indicative of hillslope 'damage' (weakening) and, hence, the onset of shear surface development in as-yet unfailed slopes - a phenomenon previously observed in areas subjected to high-magnitude earthquake ground shaking and subsequent ongoing landsliding. Recent work on the efficacy of earthquakes in triggering landslides has proposed that the occurrence of failures is a function of damage accumulated in the slope. We present a unique field monitoring dataset on continuing slope deformation from hillslopes damaged during the 2015 Nepal EQS, in response to precipitation and continuing seismicity. Our study site is the Upper Bhote Koshi (UBK), with sites chosen from a chronology of landslide inventories captured from remotely sensed imagery since the Gorkha earthquake. Instruments were deployed during the monsoon on new and pre-existing landslides, and across cracked ground to monitoring precipitation inputs, slope-scale (micro-)seismicity, and slope displacements. Using our dataset, we draw preliminary conclusions on how the spatially-variable legacy of damage accumulated during high-magnitude earthquake-induced ground shaking events is manifest in patterns, rates and styles of post-seismic slope deformation.

  19. FORECAST MODEL FOR MODERATE EARTHQUAKES NEAR PARKFIELD, CALIFORNIA.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stuart, William D.; Archuleta, Ralph J.; Lindh, Allan G.

    1985-01-01

    The paper outlines a procedure for using an earthquake instability model and repeated geodetic measurements to attempt an earthquake forecast. The procedure differs from other prediction methods, such as recognizing trends in data or assuming failure at a critical stress level, by using a self-contained instability model that simulates both preseismic and coseismic faulting in a natural way. In short, physical theory supplies a family of curves, and the field data select the member curves whose continuation into the future constitutes a prediction. Model inaccuracy and resolving power of the data determine the uncertainty of the selected curves and hence the uncertainty of the earthquake time.

  20. Keeping the History in Historical Seismology: The 1872 Owens Valley, California Earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Hough, Susan E.

    2008-07-08

    The importance of historical earthquakes is being increasingly recognized. Careful investigations of key pre-instrumental earthquakes can provide critical information and insights for not only seismic hazard assessment but also for earthquake science. In recent years, with the explosive growth in computational sophistication in Earth sciences, researchers have developed increasingly sophisticated methods to analyze macroseismic data quantitatively. These methodological developments can be extremely useful to exploit fully the temporally and spatially rich information source that seismic intensities often represent. For example, the exhaustive and painstaking investigations done by Ambraseys and his colleagues of early Himalayan earthquakes provides information that can be used to map out site response in the Ganges basin. In any investigation of macroseismic data, however, one must stay mindful that intensity values are not data but rather interpretations. The results of any subsequent analysis, regardless of the degree of sophistication of the methodology, will be only as reliable as the interpretations of available accounts - and only as complete as the research done to ferret out, and in many cases translate, these accounts. When intensities are assigned without an appreciation of historical setting and context, seemingly careful subsequent analysis can yield grossly inaccurate results. As a case study, I report here on the results of a recent investigation of the 1872 Owen's Valley, California earthquake. Careful consideration of macroseismic observations reveals that this event was probably larger than the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906, and possibly the largest historical earthquake in California. The results suggest that some large earthquakes in California will generate significantly larger ground motions than San Andreas fault events of comparable magnitude.

  1. Earthquake Rate Model 2 of the 2007 Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities, Magnitude-Area Relationships

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stein, Ross S.

    2008-01-01

    The Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities must transform fault lengths and their slip rates into earthquake moment-magnitudes. First, the down-dip coseismic fault dimension, W, must be inferred. We have chosen the Nazareth and Hauksson (2004) method, which uses the depth above which 99% of the background seismicity occurs to assign W. The product of the observed or inferred fault length, L, with the down-dip dimension, W, gives the fault area, A. We must then use a scaling relation to relate A to moment-magnitude, Mw. We assigned equal weight to the Ellsworth B (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2003) and Hanks and Bakun (2007) equations. The former uses a single logarithmic relation fitted to the M=6.5 portion of data of Wells and Coppersmith (1994); the latter uses a bilinear relation with a slope change at M=6.65 (A=537 km2) and also was tested against a greatly expanded dataset for large continental transform earthquakes. We also present an alternative power law relation, which fits the newly expanded Hanks and Bakun (2007) data best, and captures the change in slope that Hanks and Bakun attribute to a transition from area- to length-scaling of earthquake slip. We have not opted to use the alternative relation for the current model. The selections and weights were developed by unanimous consensus of the Executive Committee of the Working Group, following an open meeting of scientists, a solicitation of outside opinions from additional scientists, and presentation of our approach to the Scientific Review Panel. The magnitude-area relations and their assigned weights are unchanged from that used in Working Group (2003).

  2. A 30-year history of earthquake crisis communication in California and lessons for the future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, L.

    2015-12-01

    The first statement from the US Geological Survey to the California Office of Emergency Services quantifying the probability of a possible future earthquake was made in October 1985 about the probability (approximately 5%) that a M4.7 earthquake located directly beneath the Coronado Bay Bridge in San Diego would be a foreshock to a larger earthquake. In the next 30 years, publication of aftershock advisories have become routine and formal statements about the probability of a larger event have been developed in collaboration with the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC) and sent to CalOES more than a dozen times. Most of these were subsequently released to the public. These communications have spanned a variety of approaches, with and without quantification of the probabilities, and using different ways to express the spatial extent and the magnitude distribution of possible future events. The USGS is re-examining its approach to aftershock probability statements and to operational earthquake forecasting with the goal of creating pre-vetted automated statements that can be released quickly after significant earthquakes. All of the previous formal advisories were written during the earthquake crisis. The time to create and release a statement became shorter with experience from the first public advisory (to the 1988 Lake Elsman earthquake) that was released 18 hours after the triggering event, but was never completed in less than 2 hours. As was done for the Parkfield experiment, the process will be reviewed by CEPEC and NEPEC (National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council) so the statements can be sent to the public automatically. This talk will review the advisories, the variations in wording and the public response and compare this with social science research about successful crisis communication, to create recommendations for future advisories

  3. Statistical Properties of Induced and Triggered Earthquakes at The Geysers, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawkins, A. K.; Turcotte, D. L.; Kellogg, L. H.

    2015-12-01

    This study considers the statistics of induced and triggered seismicity at The Geysers geothermal field, California. Data is considered from the regional Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN) and local Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Network (LBNLN). Both data sets give good GR data fits for 2009-2014 but NCSN data have b=1.15 and LBNLN data have b=1.36. Comparing 18,000 individual earthquakes we find on average MLBNLN = MNCSN+0.5. Thus care must be taken when both data sets are used. We hypothesize that the strain accumulated due to the plate motions is a balance by the strain released in earthquakes with a maximum upper limit Mmax. We compare the strain associated with seismicity with the tectonic GPS strain being accumulated in the region. Taking the NCSN GR data with an upper magnitude cutoff, we find this cutoff to be Mmax=4.74. This is consistent with an observed upper magnitude limit to The Geysers seismicity at about M=5. We present studies of aftershock statistics of four M = 4.43, 4.16, 4.62, and 4.53 earthquakes. We find both GR and Omori Law statistics to be typical of tectonic earthquakes. We suggest that the four earthquakes release accumulated tectonic stresses but injected fluids reduce the stress required for rupture initiation. We also consider triggered seismicity caused by three remote earthquakes. We obtain excellent data for the 2010 M=7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah and the M=6.0 South Napa earthquakes. In the first case a M=3.37 event was triggered and in the second case a M=4.48 event was triggered. We conclude that the observed seismicity consists primarily of aftershocks of the large triggered earthquakes and that the directly triggered earthquakes do not satisfy GR frequency-magnitude statistics.

  4. Seismic sequences, swarms, and large earthquakes in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amato, Alessandro; Piana Agostinetti, Nicola; Selvaggi, Giulio; Mele, Franco

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, particularly after the L'Aquila 2009 earthquake and the 2012 Emilia sequence, the issue of earthquake predictability has been at the center of the discussion in Italy, not only within the scientific community but also in the courtrooms and in the media. Among the noxious effects of the L'Aquila trial there was an increase of scaremongering and false alerts during earthquake sequences and swarms, culminated in a groundless one-night evacuation in northern Tuscany in 2013. We have analyzed the Italian seismicity of the last decades in order to determine the rate of seismic sequences and investigate some of their characters, including frequencies, min/max durations, maximum magnitudes, main shock timing, etc. Selecting only sequences with an equivalent magnitude of 3.5 or above, we find an average of 30 sequences/year. Although there is an extreme variability in the examined parameters, we could set some boundaries, useful to obtain some quantitative estimates of the ongoing activity. In addition, the historical catalogue is rich of complex sequences in which one main shock is followed, seconds, days or months later, by another event with similar or higher magnitude We also analysed the Italian CPT11 catalogue (Rovida et al., 2011) between 1950 and 2006 to highlight the foreshock-mainshock event couples that were suggested in previous studies to exist (e.g. six couples, Marzocchi and Zhuang, 2011). Moreover, to investigate the probability of having random foreshock-mainshock couples over the investigated period, we produced 1000 synthetic catalogues, randomly distributing in time the events occured in such period. Preliminary results indicate that: (1) all but one of the the so-called foreshock-mainshock pairs found in Marzocchi and Zhuang (2011) fall inside previously well-known and studied seismic sequences (Belice, Friuli and Umbria-Marche), meaning that suggested foreshocks are also aftershocks; and (2) due to the high-rate of the italian

  5. The 2008 Mw 6.0 Wells, Nevada Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, K.; Depolo, D.; Torrisi, J.; Edwards, N.; Biasi, G.; Slater, D.

    2008-12-01

    The Mw 6.0 February 21, 2008 (06:16 AM PDT) Wells, Nevada normal faulting earthquake occurred in Town Creek Flat about 8 km northeast of the small community of Wells. A preliminary set of about 1000 aftershock relocations clearly defines a 55-60 degree southeast dipping fault plane. The structure projects to the surface along the southern end of the Snake Range, although no surface offsets have been identified. The earthquake occurred east of the Ruby Mountains and Snake Range west dipping range front faults, possibly on a northern extension of an east dipping normal fault system on the eastern side of the East Humbolt Range. The depth of the mainshock is estimated to be 10.5 km with the aftershock sequence extending to about 15 km. Typical of moderate sized Basin and Range earthquakes, the early aftershock period included several earthquakes of M > 4 and these were felt strongly by the residents of Wells. From the preliminary relocations, the source radius of the mainshock is estimated to be about 4 km, resulting in an estimated displacement of 55 to 83 cm and static stress drop of 72 to 86 bars, depending on the seismic moment estimate used. Aftershock relocations suggest a radial rupture mechanism. Fortunately, the EarthScope USArray network was operating in Nevada at the time of the event and provided unique controls on the mainshock and early aftershock locations. The earthquake occurred in an area of relatively low seismic hazard and the only permanent seismograph in the region was the U.S. National Network broadband station east of the Ruby Mountains south of Wells. The University of Utah and University of Nevada deployed locally recorded strong motion instruments in the Wells area. Also, an 8 station IP telemetered strong motion network, jointly deployed by the U.S. Geological Survey and University of Nevada Reno, provided real-time data for quick high-quality aftershock relocations and ground motion estimates. In addition, the University of Utah

  6. Liquefaction-induced lateral spreading in Oceano, California, during the 2003 San Simeon Earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, Thomas L.; Noce, Thomas E.; Bennett, Michael J.; Di Alessandro, Carola; Boatwright, John; Tinsley, John C.; Sell, Russell W.; Rosenberg, Lewis I.

    2004-01-01

    The December 22, 2003, San Simeon, California, (M6.5) earthquake caused damage to houses, road surfaces, and underground utilities in Oceano, California. The community of Oceano is approximately 50 miles (80 km) from the earthquake epicenter. Damage at this distance from a M6.5 earthquake is unusual. To understand the causes of this damage, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted extensive subsurface exploration and monitoring of aftershocks in the months after the earthquake. The investigation included 37 seismic cone penetration tests, 5 soil borings, and aftershock monitoring from January 28 to March 7, 2004. The USGS investigation identified two earthquake hazards in Oceano that explain the San Simeon earthquake damage?site amplification and liquefaction. Site amplification is a phenomenon observed in many earthquakes where the strength of the shaking increases abnormally in areas where the seismic-wave velocity of shallow geologic layers is low. As a result, earthquake shaking is felt more strongly than in surrounding areas without similar geologic conditions. Site amplification in Oceano is indicated by the physical properties of the geologic layers beneath Oceano and was confirmed by monitoring aftershocks. Liquefaction, which is also commonly observed during earthquakes, is a phenomenon where saturated sands lose their strength during an earthquake and become fluid-like and mobile. As a result, the ground may undergo large permanent displacements that can damage underground utilities and well-built surface structures. The type of displacement of major concern associated with liquefaction is lateral spreading because it involves displacement of large blocks of ground down gentle slopes or towards stream channels. The USGS investigation indicates that the shallow geologic units beneath Oceano are very susceptible to liquefaction. They include young sand dunes and clean sandy artificial fill that was used to bury and convert marshes into developable lots. Most of

  7. Scientific overview and historical context of the 1811-1812 new Madrid earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.

    2004-01-01

    aftershock». These values are consistent with other lines of evidence, including scaling relationships. Finally, I show that accounts from the New Madrid sequence reveal evidence for remotely triggered earthquakes well outside the NMSZ. Remotely triggered earthquakes represent a potentially important new wrinkle in historic earthquake research, as their ground motions can sometimes be confused with mainshock ground motions.

  8. Searching for Unknown Earthquakes in the Guy-Greenbrier, Arkansas, Earthquake Sequence using Efficient Waveform Similarity Search

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, C. E.; OReilly, O. J.; Bergen, K.; Huang, Y.; Beroza, G. C.

    2015-12-01

    Recent seismicity rate increases in the central United States have been attributed to injection of wastewater from oil and gas production. One example is the Guy-Greenbrier, Arkansas, earthquake sequence, which occurred from July 2010 through October 2011, and was potentially induced by fluid injection into nearby disposal wells (Horton, 2012). Although the Arkansas seismic network is sparse, a single 3-component station WHAR recorded continuous data before, during, and after this earthquake sequence at distances ranging from 2-9 km. Huang and Beroza (2015) used template matching to detect over 100 times the number of cataloged earthquakes by cross-correlating the continuous data with waveform templates based on known earthquakes to search for additional low-magnitude events. Because known waveform templates do not necessarily fully represent all seismic signals in the continuous data, small earthquakes from unknown sources could have escaped detection. We use a method called Fingerprint And Similarity Thresholding (FAST) to detect additional low-magnitude earthquakes that were missed by template matching. FAST enables fast, scalable search for earthquakes with similar waveforms without making prior assumptions about the seismic signal of interest. FAST, based on a data mining technique, first creates compact "fingerprints" of waveforms by extracting discriminative features, then uses locality-sensitive hashing to organize and efficiently search for similar fingerprints (and therefore similar earthquake waveforms) in a probabilistic manner. With FAST, each search query is processed in near-constant time, independent of the dataset size; this computational efficiency is gained at the expense of an approximate, rather than exact, search. During one week of continuous data at station WHAR, from 2010-07-01 to 2010-07-08, FAST detected over 200 uncataloged earthquakes that were not found through template matching. These newly detected earthquakes have the potential to

  9. Hydrothermal response to a volcano-tectonic earthquake swarm, Lassen, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Shelly, David R.; Hsieh, Paul A.; Clor, Laura; P.H. Seward,; Evans, William C.

    2015-01-01

    The increasing capability of seismic, geodetic, and hydrothermal observation networks allows recognition of volcanic unrest that could previously have gone undetected, creating an imperative to diagnose and interpret unrest episodes. A November 2014 earthquake swarm near Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, which included the largest earthquake in the area in more than 60 years, was accompanied by a rarely observed outburst of hydrothermal fluids. Although the earthquake swarm likely reflects upward migration of endogenous H2O-CO2 fluids in the source region, there is no evidence that such fluids emerged at the surface. Instead, shaking from the modest sized (moment magnitude 3.85) but proximal earthquake caused near-vent permeability increases that triggered increased outflow of hydrothermal fluids already present and equilibrated in a local hydrothermal aquifer. Long-term, multiparametric monitoring at Lassen and other well-instrumented volcanoes enhances interpretation of unrest and can provide a basis for detailed physical modeling.

  10. Annual modulation of triggered seismicity following the 1992 Landers earthquake in California

    PubMed

    Gao; Silver; Linde; Sacks

    2000-08-01

    The mechanism responsible for the triggering of earthquakes remains one of the least-understood aspects of the earthquake process. The magnitude-7.3 Landers, California earthquake of 28 June 1992 was followed for several weeks by triggered seismic activity over a large area, encompassing much of the western United States. Here we show that this triggered seismicity marked the beginning of a five-year trend, consisting of an elevated microearthquake rate that was modulated by an annual cycle, decaying with time. The annual cycle is mainly associated with several hydrothermal or volcanic regions where short-term triggering was also observed. These data indicate that the Landers earthquake produced long-term physical changes in these areas, and that an environmental source of stress--plausibly barometric pressure--might be responsible for the annual variation. PMID:10952308

  11. Constraining depth range of S wave velocity decrease after large earthquakes near Parkfield, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Chunquan; Delorey, Andrew; Brenguier, Florent; Hadziioannou, Celine; Daub, Eric G.; Johnson, Paul

    2016-06-01

    We use noise correlation and surface wave inversion to measure the S wave velocity changes at different depths near Parkfield, California, after the 2003 San Simeon and 2004 Parkfield earthquakes. We process continuous seismic recordings from 13 stations to obtain the noise cross-correlation functions and measure the Rayleigh wave phase velocity changes over six frequency bands. We then invert the Rayleigh wave phase velocity changes using a series of sensitivity kernels to obtain the S wave velocity changes at different depths. Our results indicate that the S wave velocity decreases caused by the San Simeon earthquake are relatively small (~0.02%) and access depths of at least 2.3 km. The S wave velocity decreases caused by the Parkfield earthquake are larger (~0.2%), and access depths of at least 1.2 km. Our observations can be best explained by material damage and healing resulting mainly from the dynamic stress perturbations of the two large earthquakes.

  12. Distribution of intensity for the Westmorland, California, earthquake of April 26, 1981

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barnhard, L.M.; Thenhaus, P.C.; Algermissen, Sylvester Theodore

    1982-01-01

    The maximum Modified Mercalli intensity of the April 26, 1981 earthquake located 5 km northwest of Westmorland, California is VII. Twelve buildings in Westmorland were severely damaged with an additional 30 sustaining minor damage. Two brick parapets fell in Calipatria, 14 km northeast of Westmorland and 10 km from the earthquake epicenter. Significant damage in rural areas was restricted to unreinforced, concrete-lined irrigation canals. Liquefaction effects and ground slumping were widespread in rural areas and were the primary causes of road cracking. Preliminary local government estimates of property loss range from one to three million dollars (Imperial Valley Press, 1981). The earthquake was felt over an area of approximately 160,000 km2; about the same felt area of the October 15, 1979 (Reagor and others, 1980), and May 18, 1940 (Ulrich, 1941) Imperial Valley earthquakes.

  13. Prediction of central California earthquakes from soil-gas helium fluctuations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reimer, G.M.

    1985-01-01

    The observations of short-term decreases in helium soil-gas concentrations along the San Andreas Fault in central California have been correlated with subsequent earthquake activity. The area of study is elliptical in shape with radii approximately 160??80 km, centered near San Benito, and with the major axis parallel to the Fault. For 83 percent of the M>4 earthquakes in this area a helium decrease preceded seismic activity by 1.5 to 6.5 weeks. There were several earthquakes without a decrease and several decreases without a corresponding earthquake. Owing to complex and unresolved interaction of many geophysical and geochemical parameters, no suitable model is yet developed to explain the observations. ?? 1985 Birkha??user Verlag.

  14. Prediction of central California earthquakes from soil-gas helium fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reimer, G. M.

    1984-03-01

    The observations of short-term decreases in helium soil-gas concentrations along the San Andreas Fault in central California have been correlated with subsequent earthquake activity. The area of study is elliptical in shape with radii approximately 160×80 km, centered near San Benito, and with the major axis parallel to the Fault. For 83 percent of the M>4 earthquakes in this area a helium decrease preceded seismic activity by 1.5 to 6.5 weeks. There were several earthquakes without a decrease and several decreases without a corresponding earthquake. Owing to complex and unresolved interaction of many geophysical and geochemical parameters, no suitable model is yet developed to explain the observations.

  15. Hydrothermal response to a volcano-tectonic earthquake swarm, Lassen, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ingebritsen, S. E.; Shelly, D. R.; Hsieh, P. A.; Clor, L. E.; Seward, P. H.; Evans, W. C.

    2015-11-01

    The increasing capability of seismic, geodetic, and hydrothermal observation networks allows recognition of volcanic unrest that could previously have gone undetected, creating an imperative to diagnose and interpret unrest episodes. A November 2014 earthquake swarm near Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, which included the largest earthquake in the area in more than 60 years, was accompanied by a rarely observed outburst of hydrothermal fluids. Although the earthquake swarm likely reflects upward migration of endogenous H2O-CO2 fluids in the source region, there is no evidence that such fluids emerged at the surface. Instead, shaking from the modest sized (moment magnitude 3.85) but proximal earthquake caused near-vent permeability increases that triggered increased outflow of hydrothermal fluids already present and equilibrated in a local hydrothermal aquifer. Long-term, multiparametric monitoring at Lassen and other well-instrumented volcanoes enhances interpretation of unrest and can provide a basis for detailed physical modeling.

  16. Products and Services Available from the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC) and the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, E.; Chen, S.; Chowdhury, F.; Bhaskaran, A.; Hutton, K.; Given, D.; Hauksson, E.; Clayton, R. W.

    2009-12-01

    The SCEDC archives continuous and triggered data from nearly 3000 data channels from 375 SCSN recorded stations. The SCSN and SCEDC process and archive an average of 12,000 earthquakes each year, contributing to the southern California earthquake catalog that spans from 1932 to present. The SCEDC provides public, searchable access to these earthquake parametric and waveform data through its website www.data.scec.org and through client applications such as STP, NETDC and DHI. New data products: ● The SCEDC is distributing synthetic waveform data from the 2008 ShakeOut scenario (Jones et al., USGS Open File Rep., 2008-1150) and (Graves et al. 2008; Geophys. Res. Lett.) This is a M 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault. Users will be able to download 40 sps velocity waveforms in SAC format from the SCEDC website. The SCEDC is also distributing synthetic GPS data (Crowell et al., 2009; Seismo. Res. Letters.) for this scenario as well. ● The SCEDC has added a new web page to show the latest tomographic model of Southern California. This model is based on Tape et al., 2009 Science. New data services: ● The SCEDC is exporting data in QuakeML format. This is an xml format that has been adopted by the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). This data will also be available as a web service. ● The SCEDC is exporting data in StationXML format. This is an xml format created by the SCEDC and adopted by ANSS to fully describe station metadata. This data will also be available as a web service. ● The stp 1.6 client can now access both the SCEDC and the Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) earthquake and waveform archives. In progress - SCEDC to distribute 1 sps GPS data in miniSEED format: ● As part of a NASA Advanced Information Systems Technology project in collaboration with Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, the SCEDC will receive real time 1 sps streams of GPS displacement solutions from the California

  17. Potentially induced earthquakes in Oklahoma, USA: links between wastewater injection and the 2011 Mw 5.7 earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keranen, Katie M.; Savage, Heather M.; Abers, Geoffrey A.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

    2013-01-01

    Significant earthquakes are increasingly occurring within the continental interior of the United States, including five of moment magnitude (Mw) ≥ 5.0 in 2011 alone. Concurrently, the volume of fluid injected into the subsurface related to the production of unconventional resources continues to rise. Here we identify the largest earthquake potentially related to injection, an Mw 5.7 earthquake in November 2011 in Oklahoma. The earthquake was felt in at least 17 states and caused damage in the epicentral region. It occurred in a sequence, with 2 earthquakes of Mw 5.0 and a prolific sequence of aftershocks. We use the aftershocks to illuminate the faults that ruptured in the sequence, and show that the tip of the initial rupture plane is within ~200 m of active injection wells and within ~1 km of the surface; 30% of early aftershocks occur within the sedimentary section. Subsurface data indicate that fluid was injected into effectively sealed compartments, and we interpret that a net fluid volume increase after 18 yr of injection lowered effective stress on reservoir-bounding faults. Significantly, this case indicates that decades-long lags between the commencement of fluid injection and the onset of induced earthquakes are possible, and modifies our common criteria for fluid-induced events. The progressive rupture of three fault planes in this sequence suggests that stress changes from the initial rupture triggered the successive earthquakes, including one larger than the first.

  18. Injuries and Traumatic Psychological Exposures Associated with the South Napa Earthquake - California, 2014.

    PubMed

    Attfield, Kathleen R; Dobson, Christine B; Henn, Jennifer B; Acosta, Meileen; Smorodinsky, Svetlana; Wilken, Jason A; Barreau, Tracy; Schreiber, Merritt; Windham, Gayle C; Materna, Barbara L; Roisman, Rachel

    2015-09-11

    On August 24, 2014, at 3:20 a.m., a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck California, with its epicenter in Napa County (1). The earthquake was the largest to affect the San Francisco Bay area in 25 years and caused significant damage in Napa and Solano counties, including widespread power outages, five residential fires, and damage to roadways, waterlines, and 1,600 buildings (2). Two deaths resulted (2). On August 25, Napa County Public Health asked the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) for assistance in assessing postdisaster health effects, including earthquake-related injuries and effects on mental health. On September 23, Solano County Public Health requested similar assistance. A household-level Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) was conducted for these counties in two cities (Napa, 3 weeks after the earthquake, and Vallejo, 6 weeks after the earthquake). Among households reporting injuries, a substantial proportion (48% in Napa and 37% in western Vallejo) reported that the injuries occurred during the cleanup period, suggesting that increased messaging on safety precautions after a disaster might be needed. One fifth of respondents overall (27% in Napa and 9% in western Vallejo) reported one or more traumatic psychological exposures in their households. These findings were used by Napa County Mental Health to guide immediate-term mental health resource allocations and to conduct public training sessions and education campaigns to support persons with mental health risks following the earthquake. In addition, to promote community resilience and future earthquake preparedness, Napa County Public Health subsequently conducted community events on the earthquake anniversary and provided outreach workers with psychological first aid training.

  19. Improving Estimates of Coseismic Subsidence from southern Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquakes at northern Humboldt Bay, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Padgett, J. S.; Engelhart, S. E.; Hemphill-Haley, E.; Kelsey, H. M.; Witter, R. C.

    2015-12-01

    Geological estimates of subsidence from past earthquakes help to constrain Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquake rupture models. To improve subsidence estimates for past earthquakes along the southern CSZ, we apply transfer function analysis on microfossils from 3 intertidal marshes in northern Humboldt Bay, California, ~60 km north of the Mendocino Triple Junction. The transfer function method uses elevation-dependent intertidal foraminiferal and diatom assemblages to reconstruct relative sea-level (RSL) change indicated by shifts in microfossil assemblages. We interpret stratigraphic evidence associated with sudden shifts in microfossils to reflect sudden RSL rise due to subsidence during past CSZ earthquakes. Laterally extensive (>5 km) and sharp mud-over-peat contacts beneath marshes at Jacoby Creek, Mad River Slough, and McDaniel Slough demonstrate widespread earthquake subsidence in northern Humboldt Bay. C-14 ages of plant macrofossils taken from above and below three contacts that correlate across all three sites, provide estimates of the times of subsidence at ~250 yr BP, ~1300 yr BP and ~1700 yr BP. Two further contacts observed at only two sites provide evidence for subsidence during possible CSZ earthquakes at ~900 yr BP and ~1100 yr BP. Our study contributes 20 AMS radiocarbon ages, of identifiable plant macrofossils, that improve estimates of the timing of past earthquakes along the southern CSZ. We anticipate that our results will provide more accurate and precise reconstructions of RSL change induced by southern CSZ earthquakes. Prior to our work, studies in northern Humboldt Bay provided subsidence estimates with vertical uncertainties >±0.5 m; too imprecise to adequately constrain earthquake rupture models. Our method, applied recently in coastal Oregon, has shown that subsidence during past CSZ earthquakes can be reconstructed with a precision of ±0.3m and substantially improves constraints on rupture models used for seismic hazard

  20. The 2006-2007 Kuril Islands great earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lay, T.; Kanamori, H.; Ammon, C.J.; Hutko, Alexander R.; Furlong, K.; Rivera, L.

    2009-01-01

    The southwestern half of a ???500 km long seismic gap in the central Kuril Island arc subduction zone experienced two great earthquakes with extensive preshock and aftershock sequences in late 2006 to early 2007. The nature of seismic coupling in the gap had been uncertain due to the limited historical record of prior large events and the presence of distinctive upper plate, trench and outer rise structures relative to adjacent regions along the arc that have experienced repeated great interplate earthquakes in the last few centuries. The intraplate region seaward of the seismic gap had several shallow compressional events during the preceding decades (notably an MS 7.2 event on 16 March 1963), leading to speculation that the interplate fault was seismically coupled. This issue was partly resolved by failure of the shallow portion of the interplate megathrust in an MW = 8.3 thrust event on 15 November 2006. This event ruptured ???250 km along the seismic gap, just northeast of the great 1963 Kuril Island (Mw = 8.5) earthquake rupture zone. Within minutes of the thrust event, intense earthquake activity commenced beneath the outer wall of the trench seaward of the interplate rupture, with the larger events having normal-faulting mechanisms. An unusual double band of interplate and intraplate aftershocks developed. On 13 January 2007, an MW = 8.1 extensional earthquake ruptured within the Pacific plate beneath the seaward edge of the Kuril trench. This event is the third largest normal-faulting earthquake seaward of a subduction zone on record, and its rupture zone extended to at least 33 km depth and paralleled most of the length of the 2006 rupture. The 13 January 2007 event produced stronger shaking in Japan than the larger thrust event, as a consequence of higher short-period energy radiation from the source. The great event aftershock sequences were dominated by the expected faulting geometries; thrust faulting for the 2006 rupture zone, and normal faulting for

  1. An empirical model for earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region, California, 2002-2031

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reasenberg, P.A.; Hanks, T.C.; Bakun, W.H.

    2003-01-01

    The moment magnitude M 7.8 earthquake in 1906 profoundly changed the rate of seismic activity over much of northern California. The low rate of seismic activity in the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) since 1906, relative to that of the preceding 55 yr, is often explained as a stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, existing elastic and visco-elastic models of stress change fail to fully account for the duration of the lowered rate of earthquake activity. We use variations in the rate of earthquakes as a basis for a simple empirical model for estimating the probability of M ???6.7 earthquakes in the SFBR. The model preserves the relative magnitude distribution of sources predicted by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities' (WGCEP, 1999; WGCEP, 2002) model of characterized ruptures on SFBR faults and is consistent with the occurrence of the four M ???6.7 earthquakes in the region since 1838. When the empirical model is extrapolated 30 yr forward from 2002, it gives a probability of 0.42 for one or more M ???6.7 in the SFBR. This result is lower than the probability of 0.5 estimated by WGCEP (1988), lower than the 30-yr Poisson probability of 0.60 obtained by WGCEP (1999) and WGCEP (2002), and lower than the 30-yr time-dependent probabilities of 0.67, 0.70, and 0.63 obtained by WGCEP (1990), WGCEP (1999), and WGCEP (2002), respectively, for the occurrence of one or more large earthquakes. This lower probability is consistent with the lack of adequate accounting for the 1906 stress-shadow in these earlier reports. The empirical model represents one possible approach toward accounting for the stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, the discrepancy between our result and those obtained with other modeling methods underscores the fact that the physics controlling the timing of earthquakes is not well understood. Hence, we advise against using the empirical model alone (or any other single probability model) for estimating the

  2. Scenario earthquake hazards for the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, east-central California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chen, Rui; Branum, David M.; Wills, Chris J.; Hill, David P.

    2014-01-01

    As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) multi-hazards project in the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, the California Geological Survey (CGS) developed several earthquake scenarios and evaluated potential seismic hazards, including ground shaking, surface fault rupture, liquefaction, and landslide hazards associated with these earthquake scenarios. The results of these analyses can be useful in estimating the extent of potential damage and economic losses because of potential earthquakes and in preparing emergency response plans. The Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area has numerous active faults. Five of these faults or fault zones are considered capable of producing magnitude ≥6.7 earthquakes according to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2) developed by the 2007 Working Group of California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) and the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping (NSHM) Program. These five faults are the Fish Slough, Hartley Springs, Hilton Creek, Mono Lake, and Round Valley Faults. CGS developed earthquake scenarios for these five faults in the study area and for the White Mountains Fault to the east of the study area. Earthquake scenarios are intended to depict the potential consequences of significant earthquakes. They are not necessarily the largest or most damaging earthquakes possible. Earthquake scenarios are both large enough and likely enough that emergency planners should consider them in regional emergency response plans. Earthquake scenarios presented here are based on fault geometry and activity data developed by the WGCEP, and are consistent with the 2008 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHM).For the Hilton Creek Fault, two alternative scenarios were developed in addition to the NSHM scenario to account for different opinions in how far north the fault extends into the Long Valley Caldera. For each scenario, ground motions were calculated using the current standard practice

  3. Chapter F. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Tectonic Processes and Models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simpson, Robert W.

    1994-01-01

    If there is a single theme that unifies the diverse papers in this chapter, it is the attempt to understand the role of the Loma Prieta earthquake in the context of the earthquake 'machine' in northern California: as the latest event in a long history of shocks in the San Francisco Bay region, as an incremental contributor to the regional deformation pattern, and as a possible harbinger of future large earthquakes. One of the surprises generated by the earthquake was the rather large amount of uplift that occurred as a result of the reverse component of slip on the southwest-dipping fault plane. Preearthquake conventional wisdom had been that large earthquakes in the region would probably be caused by horizontal, right-lateral, strike-slip motion on vertical fault planes. In retrospect, the high topography of the Santa Cruz Mountains and the elevated marine terraces along the coast should have provided some clues. With the observed ocean retreat and the obvious uplift of the coast near Santa Cruz that accompanied the earthquake, Mother Nature was finally caught in the act. Several investigators quickly saw the connection between the earthquake uplift and the long-term evolution of the Santa Cruz Mountains and realized that important insights were to be gained by attempting to quantify the process of crustal deformation in terms of Loma Prieta-type increments of northward transport and fault-normal shortening.

  4. On the reported ionospheric precursor of the 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Jeremy N.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Komjathy, Attila; Verkhoglyadova, Olga P.; Butala, Mark; Rivera, Nicholas

    2012-01-01

    Using Global Positioning System (GPS) data from sites near the 16 Oct. 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake, Pulinets et al. (2007) identified anomalous changes in the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) starting one week prior to the earthquake. Pulinets (2007) suggested that precursory phenomena of this type could be useful for predicting earthquakes. On the other hand, and in a separate analysis, Afraimovich et al. (2004) concluded that TEC variations near the epicenter were controlled by solar and geomagnetic activity that were unrelated to the earthquake. In an investigation of these very different results, we examine TEC time series of long duration from GPS stations near and far from the epicenter of the Hector Mine earthquake, and long before and long after the earthquake. While we can reproduce the essential time series results of Pulinets et al., we find that the signal they identify as anomalous is not actually anomalous. Instead, it is just part of normal global-scale TEC variation. We conclude that the TEC anomaly reported by Pulinets et al. is unrelated to the Hector Mine earthquake.

  5. On the reported ionospheric precursor of the Hector Mine, California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, J.N.; Love, J.J.; Komjathy, A.; Verkhoglyadova, O.P.; Butala, M.; Rivera, N.

    2012-01-01

    Using Global Positioning System (GPS) data from sites near the 16 Oct. 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake, Pulinets et al. (2007) identified anomalous changes in the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) starting one week prior to the earthquake. Pulinets (2007) suggested that precursory phenomena of this type could be useful for predicting earthquakes. On the other hand, and in a separate analysis, Afraimovich et al. (2004) concluded that TEC variations near the epicenter were controlled by solar and geomagnetic activity that were unrelated to the earthquake. In an investigation of these very different results, we examine TEC time series of long duration from GPS stations near and far from the epicenter of the Hector Mine earthquake, and long before and long after the earthquake. While we can reproduce the essential time series results of Pulinets et al., we find that the signal they identified as being anomalous is not actually anomalous. Instead, it is just part of normal global-scale TEC variation. We conclude that the TEC anomaly reported by Pulinets et al. is unrelated to the Hector Mine earthquake.

  6. Identification and Reduction of Nonstructural Earthquake Hazards in California Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greene, Marjorie; And Others

    It is necessary to identify nonstructural hazards at the school site to reduce the possibly of injury in the event of an earthquake. Nonstructural hazards can occur in every part of a building and all of its contents with the exception of structure. In other words, nonstructural elements are everything but the columns, beams, floors, load-bearing…

  7. Guide and Checklist for Nonstructural Earthquake Hazards in California Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    2003

    The recommendations included in this document are intended to reduce seismic hazards associated with the non-structural components of schools buildings, including mechanical systems, ceiling systems, partitions, light fixtures, furnishings, and other building contents. It identifies potential earthquake hazards and provides recommendations for…

  8. FORESHOCKS AND TIME-DEPENDENT EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.

    1985-01-01

    The probability that an earthquake in southern California (M greater than equivalent to 3. 0) will be followed by an earthquake of larger magnitude within 5 days and 10 km (i. e. , will be a foreshock) is 6 plus or minus 0. 5 per cent (1 S. D. ), and is not significantly dependent on the magnitude of the possible foreshock between M equals 3 and M equals 5. The probability that an earthquake will be followed by an M greater than equivalent to 5. 0 main shock, however, increases with magnitude of the foreshock from less than 1 per cent at M greater than equivalent to 3 to 6. 5 plus or minus 2. 5 per cent (1 S. D. ) at M greater than equivalent to 5. The main shock will most likely occur in the first hour after the foreshock, and the probability that a main shock will occur in the first hour decreases with elapsed time from the occurrence of the possible foreshock by approximately the inverse of time. Thus, the occurrence of an earthquake of M greater than equivalent to 3. 0 in southern California increases the earthquake hazard within a small space-time window several orders of magnitude above the normal background level.

  9. Superficial simplicity of the 2010 El Mayorg-Cucapah earthquake of Baja California in Mexico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wei, S.; Fielding, E.; Leprince, S.; Sladen, A.; Avouac, J.-P.; Helmberger, D.; Hauksson, E.; Chu, R.; Simons, M.; Hudnut, K.; Herring, T.; Briggs, R.

    2011-01-01

    The geometry of faults is usually thought to be more complicated at the surface than at depth and to control the initiation, propagation and arrest of seismic ruptures1-6. The fault system that runs from southern California into Mexico is a simple strike-slip boundary: the west side of California and Mexico moves northwards with respect to the east. However, the Mw 7.2 2010 El Mayorg-Cucapah earthquake on this fault system produced a pattern of seismic waves that indicates a far more complex source than slip on a planar strike-slip fault. Here we use geodetic, remote-sensing and seismological data to reconstruct the fault geometry and history of slip during this earthquake. We find that the earthquake produced a straight 120-km-long fault trace that cut through the Cucapah mountain range and across the Colorado River delta. However, at depth, the fault is made up of two different segments connected by a small extensional fault. Both segments strike N130 ??E, but dip in opposite directions. The earthquake was initiated on the connecting extensional fault and 15s later ruptured the two main segments with dominantly strike-slip motion. We show that complexities in the fault geometry at depth explain well the complex pattern of radiated seismic waves. We conclude that the location and detailed characteristics of the earthquake could not have been anticipated on the basis of observations of surface geology alone. ?? 2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

  10. Systematic Study of Foreshocks and Triggered Earthquakes During the 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, X.; Peng, Z.; Deng, S.; Castro, R. R.

    2015-12-01

    The 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake occurred southwest of the Pacific-North America plate boundary in north Baja California. It was preceded by an intensive foreshock sequence, and was followed by numerous aftershocks both on and off the mainshock rupture zone, hence providing us a great opportunity to study the physical mechanisms of foreshock and aftershock triggering. In our previously published work (Meng and Peng, GJI, 2014), we focused on the seismicity rate changes around the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF) and along the San Jacinto Fault (SJF) following the mainshock. Based on a recently developed matched filter technique, we were able to detect up to 20 times more events than listed in the SCSN catalog. We found that the seismicity rate near SSGF and SJF both experienced significant increase immediately following the mainshock. However, the seismicity rate near SSGF, where static Coulomb stress decreased, dropped below the pre-mainshock level after ~50 days. On the other hand, the seismicity rate near SJF, where static Coulomb stress increased, remained high till the end of our detecting time window. Such pattern indicates that both static and dynamic triggering may coexist, but dominate in different time scales. Motivated by this success, we shift our focus to the foreshock and aftershock sequence of the El Mayor-Cucapah event. We utilize available seismic stations immediately north to US-Mexico boarder and a few stations within Mexico to conduct a similar detection ~40 days before to 40 days after the mainshock. We aim to obtain a complete foreshock sequence and investigate its spatio-temporal evolutions before the mainshock. Moreover, we plan to study similar patterns for aftershocks and the corresponding triggering mechanisms. Updated results will be presented at the meeting.

  11. One hundred years of earthquake recording at the University of California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bolt, B. A.

    1987-01-01

    The best seismographs then available arrived from England in 1887 and were installed at Lick Observatory on Mt.Hamilton and at the Students Astronomical Observatory on the Berkeley campus. The first California earthquake recorded by the Lick instrument was on April 24, 1887. These seismographic stations have functioned continuously from their founding to the present day, with improvements in instruments from time to time as technology advanced. Now they are part of a sesimogrpahic network of 16 stations recording with great completeness both local and distant earthquakes

  12. Multiscaling comparative analysis of time series and a discussion on "earthquake conversations" in California.

    PubMed

    Scafetta, Nicola; West, Bruce J

    2004-04-01

    Time series are characterized by complex memory and/or distribution patterns. In this Letter we show that stochastic models characterized by different statistics may equally well reproduce some pattern of a time series. In particular, we discuss the difference between Lévy-walk and fractal Gaussian intermittent signals and show that the adoption of complementary scaling analysis techniques may be useful to distinguish the two cases. Finally, we apply this methodology to the earthquake occurrences in California and suggest the possibility that earthquake occurrences are described by a colored ("long-range correlated") generalized Poisson model. PMID:15089646

  13. Lg and Rg waves on the California regional networks from the December 23, 1985 Nahanni earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wald, L.A.; Heaton, T.H.

    1991-01-01

    Investigates Lg and Rg propagation in California using the central and southern California regional networks. The waveforms recorded from the December 23, 1985, Nahanni, Canada, earthquake are used to construct three profiles along the propagation path (almost N-S) and three perpendicular to the propagation path (almost E-W) to look at the nature of propagation of these two types of surface waves. Groups of records from stations in various geological and tectonic provinces in California are also examined in order to establish regional characteristics of the surface waves, it is found that the propagation characteristics of Lg differ from those of Rg across California; Lg waves are apparently more sensitive to crustal heterogeneities. The most striking observations are the similarity of coda for both the Lg and the Rg waves within geologic provinces and the marked difference in coda between regions. -from Authors

  14. Chapter B. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Highway Systems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yashinsky, Mark

    1998-01-01

    This paper summarizes the impact of the Loma Prieta earthquake on highway systems. City streets, urban freeways, county roads, state routes, and the national highway system were all affected. There was damage to bridges, roads, tunnels, and other highway structures. The most serious damage occurred in the cities of San Francisco and Oakland, 60 miles from the fault rupture. The cost to repair and replace highways damaged by this earthquake was $2 billion. About half of this cost was to replace the Cypress Viaduct, a long, elevated double-deck expressway that had a devastating collapse which resulted in 42 deaths and 108 injuries. The earthquake also resulted in some positive changes for highway systems. Research on bridges and earthquakes began to be funded at a much higher level. Retrofit programs were started to upgrade the seismic performance of the nation's highways. The Loma Prieta earthquake changed earthquake policy and engineering practice for highway departments not only in California, but all over the world.

  15. Losses to single-family housing from ground motions in the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.; Perkins, D.M.; Leyendecker, E.V.; Roth, R.J., Jr.; Petersen, M.D.

    2004-01-01

    The distributions of insured losses to single-family housing following the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake for 234 ZIP codes can be satisfactorily modeled with gamma distributions. Regressions of the parameters in the gamma distribution on estimates of ground motion, derived from ShakeMap estimates or from interpolated observations, provide a basis for developing curves of conditional probability of loss given a ground motion. Comparison of the resulting estimates of aggregate loss with the actual aggregate loss gives satisfactory agreement for several different ground-motion parameters. Estimates of loss based on a deterministic spatial model of the earthquake ground motion, using standard attenuation relationships and NEHRP soil factors, give satisfactory results for some ground-motion parameters if the input ground motions are increased about one and one-half standard deviations above the median, reflecting the fact that the ground motions for the Northridge earthquake tended to be higher than the median ground motion for other earthquakes with similar magnitude. The results give promise for making estimates of insured losses to a similar building stock under future earthquake loading. ?? 2004, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  16. Dynamic Models of Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Santa Barbara Channel, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oglesby, David; Ryan, Kenny; Geist, Eric

    2016-04-01

    The Santa Barbara Channel and the adjacent Ventura Basin in California are the location of a number of large faults that extend offshore and could potentially produce earthquakes of magnitude greater than 7. The area is also home to hundreds of thousands of coastal residents. To properly evaluate the earthquake and tsunami hazard in this region requires the characterization of possible earthquake sources as well as the analysis of tsunami generation, propagation and inundation. Toward this end, we perform spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture models of potential events on the Pitas Point/Lower Red Mountain faults, a linked offshore thrust fault system. Using the 3D finite element method, a realistic nonplanar fault geometry, and rate-state friction, we find that this fault system can produce an earthquake of up to magnitude 7.7, consistent with estimates from geological and paleoseismological studies. We use the final vertical ground deformation from our models as initial conditions for the generation and propagation of tsunamis to the shore, where we calculate inundation. We find that path and site effects lead to large tsunami amplitudes northward and eastward of the fault system, and in particular we find significant tsunami inundation in the low-lying cities of Ventura and Oxnard. The results illustrate the utility of dynamic earthquake modeling to produce physically plausible slip patterns and associated seafloor deformation that can be used for tsunami generation.

  17. The Loma Prieta earthquake of October 17, 1989 : a brief geologic view of what caused the Loma Prieta earthquake and implications for future California earthquakes: What happened ... what is expected ... what can be done.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ward, Peter L.; Page, Robert A.

    1990-01-01

    The San Andreas fault, in California, is the primary boundary between the North American plate and the Pacific plate. Land west of the fault has been moving northwestward relative to land on the east at an average rate of 2 inches per year for millions of years. This motion is not constant but occurs typically in sudden jumps during large earthquakes. This motion is relentless; therefore earthquakes in California are inevitable.

  18. Earthquake swarms and local crustal spreading along major strike-slip faults in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Weaver, C.S.; Hill, D.P.

    1978-01-01

    Earthquake swarms in California are often localized to areas within dextral offsets in the linear trend in active fault strands, suggesting a relation between earthquake swarms and local crustal spreading. Local crustal spereading is required by the geometry of dextral offsets when, as in the San Andreas system, faults have dominantly strike-slip motion with right-lateral displacement. Three clear examples of this relation occur in the Imperial Valley, Coso Hot Springs, and the Danville region, all in California. The first two of these areas are known for their Holocene volcanism and geothermal potential, which is consistent with crustal spreading and magmatic intrusion. The third example, however, shows no evidence for volcanism or geothermal activity at the surface. ?? 1978 Birkha??user Verlag.

  19. The Southern California Earthquake Center/Undergraduate Studies in Earthquake Information Technology (SCEC/UseIT) Internship Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, S.; Jordan, T.

    2006-12-01

    Our undergraduate research program, SCEC/UseIT, an NSF Research Experience for Undergraduates site, provides software for earthquake researchers and educators, movies for outreach, and ways to strengthen the technical career pipeline. SCEC/UseIT motivates diverse undergraduates towards science and engineering careers through team-based research in the exciting field of earthquake information technology. UseIT provides the cross-training in computer science/information technology (CS/IT) and geoscience needed to make fundamental progress in earthquake system science. Our high and increasing participation of women and minority students is crucial given the nation"s precipitous enrollment declines in CS/IT undergraduate degree programs, especially among women. UseIT also casts a "wider, farther" recruitment net that targets scholars interested in creative work but not traditionally attracted to summer science internships. Since 2002, SCEC/UseIT has challenged 79 students in three dozen majors from as many schools with difficult, real-world problems that require collaborative, interdisciplinary solutions. Interns design and engineer open-source software, creating increasingly sophisticated visualization tools (see "SCEC-VDO," session IN11), which are employed by SCEC researchers, in new curricula at the University of Southern California, and by outreach specialists who make animated movies for the public and the media. SCEC-VDO would be a valuable tool for research-oriented professional development programs.

  20. Historigraphical analysis of the 1857 Ft. Tejon earthquake, San Andreas Fault, California: Preliminary results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martindale, D.; Evans, J. P.

    2002-12-01

    Past historical analyses of the 1857 Forth Tejon earthquake include Townley and Allen (1939); Wood (1955) re-examined the earthquake and added some additional new material, and Agnew and Sieh (1978) published an extensive review of the previous publications and included primary sources not formerly known. Since 1978, most authors have reiterated the findings of Agnew and Sieh, with the exception of Meltzner and Wald's 1998 work that built on Sieh's foreshock research and included an extensive study of aftershocks. Approximately twenty-five years has past since the last full investigation of the event. In the last several decades, libraries and archives have continued to gather additional documents. Staff members continually inventory new and existing collections, making them accessible to researchers today. As a result, we are conducting an updated examination, with the hope of new insight regarding the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. We use a new approached to the topic: the research skills of a historian in collaboration with a geologist to generate quantitative data on the nature and location of ground shaking associated with the earthquake. We analyze documents from the Huntington Library, California State Historical Society, California State Library-California Room, Utah Historical Association Information Center, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS) Archives and Historical Department, Cal Tech Archives, the National Archives, and the Fort Tejon State Park. New facilities reviewed also include Utah State University, University of Utah, and the LDS Family History Center. Each facility not only provided formerly quoted sources, but many offered new materials. For example, previous scholars examined popular, well-known newspapers; yet, publications in smaller towns and in languages other than English, also existed. Thirty newspapers published in January 1857 were located. We find records of the event at least one year after the earthquake. One outcome

  1. Earthquake and Tsunami planning, outreach and awareness in Humboldt County, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozaki, V.; Nicolini, T.; Larkin, D.; Dengler, L.

    2008-12-01

    Humboldt County has the longest coastline in California and is one of the most seismically active areas of the state. It is at risk from earthquakes located on and offshore and from tsunamis generated locally from faults associated with the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), other regional fault systems, and from distant sources elsewhere in the Pacific. In 1995 the California Division of Mines and Geology published the first earthquake scenario to include both strong ground shaking effects and a tsunami. As a result of the scenario, the Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of representatives from government agencies, tribes, service groups, academia and the private sector from the three northern coastal California counties, was formed in 1996 to coordinate and promote earthquake and tsunami hazard awareness and mitigation. The RCTWG and its member agencies have sponsored a variety of projects including education/outreach products and programs, tsunami hazard mapping, signage and siren planning, and has sponsored an Earthquake - Tsunami Education Room at the Humboldt County fair for the past eleven years. Three editions of Living on Shaky Ground an earthquake-tsunami preparedness magazine for California's North Coast, have been published since 1993 and a fourth is due to be published in fall 2008. In 2007, Humboldt County was the first region in the country to participate in a tsunami training exercise at FEMA's Emergency Management Institute in Emmitsburg, MD and the first area in California to conduct a full-scale tsunami evacuation drill. The County has conducted numerous multi-agency, multi-discipline coordinated exercises using county-wide tsunami response plan. Two Humboldt County communities were recognized as TsunamiReady by the National Weather Service in 2007. Over 300 tsunami hazard zone signs have been posted in Humboldt County since March 2008. Six assessment surveys from 1993 to 2006 have tracked preparedness actions and personal

  2. Time-Reversal to Estimate Focal Depth for Local, Shallow Earthquakes in Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pearce, F.; Lu, R.; Toksoz, N.

    2007-12-01

    Current approaches for focal depth estimation are typically based on travel times and result in large uncertainties primarily due to poor data coverage and inaccurate travel time picks. We propose an alternative method based on an adaptation of time-reversed acoustics (TRA). In the context of TRA theory, the autocorrelation of an earthquake recording can be thought of as the convolution of the source autocorrelation function with the autocorrelation of the Green's function describing propagation between source and receiver. Furthermore, the signal to noise ratio (S/N) of stationary phases in the Green's function may be improved by stacking the autocorrelations from many receivers. In this study, we employ such an approach to estimate the focal depth of shallow earthquakes based on the time lag between the direct P phase and pP converted phase, which is assumed to be stationary across the receiver array. Focal depth estimates are easily obtained by multiplying half the pP time lag by the average velocity above the earthquake. We apply this methodology to estimate focal depths for several local earthquakes in Southern California. Earthquake recordings were obtained from the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) for events with accurate, independent estimates of focal depth below about 15 km, and local magnitudes between 4.0 and 6.0. We observe pP in the stacked autocorrelations that correspond to the focal depths listed in the SCEC catalog for earthquakes located throughout Southern California. The predictive capability of the method is limited by S/N, defined as the pP amplitude divided by the background noise level of the stacked correlation. By considering subsets of the Southern California array, we explore the sensitivity of the S/N on station density and location (i.e. epicentral distance & azimuth). We find S/N is generally better for subsets of receivers within regions with relatively simple geologic structure. We are currently developing an extension

  3. New Continuous Timeseries Data at the Northern California Earthquake Data Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neuhauser, D. S.; Dietz, L.; Zuzlewski, S.; Kohler, W.; Gee, L.; Oppenheimer, D.; Romanowicz, B.

    2005-12-01

    The Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) is an archive and distribution center for geophysical data for networks in northern and central California. Recent discovery of non-volcanic tremors in northern and central California has sparked user interest in access to a wider range of continuous seismic data in the region. The NCEDC has responded by expanding its archiving and distribution to all new available continuous data from northern California seismic networks (the USGS NCSN, the UC Berkeley BDSN, the Parkfield HRSN borehole network, and local USArray stations) at all available sample rates, to provide access to all recent real-time timeseries data, and to restore from tape and archive all NCSN continuous data from 2001-present. All new continuous timeseries data will also be available in near-real-time from the NCEDC via the DART (Data Available in Real Time) system, which allows users to directly download daily Telemetry MiniSEED files or to extract and retrieve the timeseries of their selection. The NCEDC will continue to create and distribute event waveform collections for all events detected by the Northern California Seismic System (NCSS), the northern California component of the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN). All new continuous and event timeseries will be archived in daily intervals and are accessible via the same data request tools (NetDC, BREQ_FAST, EVT_FAST, FISSURES/DHI, STP) as previously archived waveform data. The NCEDC is a joint project of the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory and USGS Menlo Park.

  4. DEFORMATION NEAR THE EPICENTER OF THE 1984 ROUND VALLEY, CALIFORNIA, EARTHQUAKE.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gross, W.K.; Savage, J.C.

    1985-01-01

    A trilateration network extending from near Mammoth Lakes to Bishop, California, was resurveyed following the November 23, 1984, Round Valley earthquake (M//L equals 5. 8). The network had previously been surveyed in 1982. Deformation apparently associated with the Round Valley earthquake was detected as well as deformation due to the expansion of a magma chamber 8 km beneath the resurgent dome in the Long Valley caldera and right-lateral slip on the uppermost 2 km of the 1983 rupture surface in the south moat of the caldera. The deformation associated with Round Valley earthquake suggests left-lateral slip on the north-northeasterly striking vertical plane defined by the aftershock hypocenters. (Edted author abstract) Refs.

  5. San Andreas fault earthquake chronology and Lake Cahuilla history at Coachella, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Philibosian, B.; Fumal, T.; Weldon, R.

    2011-01-01

    The southernmost ~100 km of the San Andreas fault has not ruptured historically. It is imperative to determine its rupture history to better predict its future behavior. This paleoseismic investigation in Coachella, California, establishes a chronology of at least five and up to seven major earthquakes during the past ~1100 yr. This chronology yields a range of average recurrence intervals between 116 and 221 yr, depending on assumptions, with a best-estimate average recurrence interval of 180 yr. The most recent earthquake occurred c.1690, more than 300 yr ago, suggesting that this stretch of the fault has accumulated a large amount of tectonic stress and is likely to rupture in the near future, assuming the fault follows a stress renewal model. This study also establishes the timing of the past 5-6 highstands of ancient Lake Cahuilla since A.D. 800.We found that earthquakes do not tend to occur at any particular stage in the lake cycle.

  6. Living With Earthquakes in California: A Survivor's Guide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grant, Lisa B.

    I write this review from a California government building in a roomful of somber, frightened strangers with armed sheriffs guarding the door. We are prohibited from leaving. A state of emergency has been declared, the airports are closed, the burly man next to me is tearing up, and all I can think of is getting home to my loved ones. What are the odds of being trapped in a jury room with armed guards and a television set, watching the collapse of the World Trade Center Towers and the smoking Pentagon? What are the odds of being trapped in a building, thinking of loved ones, as the Earth shakes, the furniture dances, and the ceiling falls when the long-awaited ‘Big One’ finally hits California? The analogy is sobering.

  7. Cruise report for A1-98-SC southern California Earthquake Hazards Project

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Normark, William R.; Bohannon, Robert G.; Sliter, Ray; Dunhill, Gita; Scholl, David W.; Laursen, Jane; Reid, Jane A.; Holton, David

    1999-01-01

    The focus of the Southern California Earthquake Hazards project, within the Western Region Coastal and Marine Geology team (WRCMG), is to identify the landslide and earthquake hazards and related ground-deformation processes that can potentially impact the social and economic well-being of the inhabitants of the Southern California coastal region, the most populated urban corridor along the U.S. Pacific margin. The primary objective is to help mitigate the earthquake hazards for the Southern California region by improving our understanding of how deformation is distributed (spatially and temporally) in the offshore with respect to the onshore region. To meet this overall objective, we are investigating the distribution, character, and relative intensity of active (i.e., primarily Holocene) deformation within the basins and along the shelf adjacent to the most highly populated areas (see Fig. 1). In addition, the project will examine the Pliocene-Pleistocene record of how this deformation has shifted in space and time. The results of this study should improve our knowledge of shifting deformation for both the long-term (105 to several 106 yr) and short-term (<50 ky) time frames and enable us to identify actively deforming structures that may constitute current significant seismic hazards.

  8. Statiscal analysis of an earthquake-induced landslide distribution - The 1989 Loma Prieta, California event

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keefer, D.K.

    2000-01-01

    The 1989 Loma Prieta, California earthquake (moment magnitude, M=6.9) generated landslides throughout an area of about 15,000 km2 in central California. Most of these landslides occurred in an area of about 2000 km2 in the mountainous terrain around the epicenter, where they were mapped during field investigations immediately following the earthquake. The distribution of these landslides is investigated statistically, using regression and one-way analysisof variance (ANOVA) techniques to determine how the occurrence of landslides correlates with distance from the earthquake source, slope steepness, and rock type. The landslide concentration (defined as the number of landslide sources per unit area) has a strong inverse correlation with distance from the earthquake source and a strong positive correlation with slope steepness. The landslide concentration differs substantially among the various geologic units in the area. The differences correlate to some degree with differences in lithology and degree of induration, but this correlation is less clear, suggesting a more complex relationship between landslide occurrence and rock properties. ?? 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Analysis of Earthquake Recordings Obtained from the Seafloor Earthquake Measurement System (SEMS) Instruments Deployed off the Coast of Southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boore, D.M.; Smith, C.E.

    1999-01-01

    For more than 20 years, a program has been underway to obtain records of earthquake shaking on the seafloor at sites offshore of southern California, near oil platforms. The primary goal of the program is to obtain data that can help determine if ground motions at offshore sites are significantly different than those at onshore sites; if so, caution may be necessary in using onshore motions as the basis for the seismic design of oil platforms. We analyze data from eight earthquakes recorded at six offshore sites; these are the most important data recorded on these stations to date. Seven of the earthquakes were recorded at only one offshore station; the eighth event was recorded at two sites. The earthquakes range in magnitude from 4.7 to 6.1. Because of the scarcity of multiple recordings from any one event, most of the analysis is based on the ratio of spectra from vertical and horizontal components of motion. The results clearly show that the offshore motions have very low vertical motions compared to those from an average onshore site, particularly at short periods. Theoretical calculations find that the water layer has little effect on the horizontal components of motion but that it produces a strong spectral null on the vertical component at the resonant frequency of P waves in the water layer. The vertical-to-horizontal ratios for a few selected onshore sites underlain by relatively low shear-wave velocities are similar to the ratios from offshore sites for frequencies less than about one-half the water layer P-wave resonant frequency, suggesting that the shear-wave velocities beneath a site are more important than the water layer in determining the character of the ground motions at lower frequencies.

  10. The 3-D aftershock distribution of three recent M5~5.5 earthquakes in the Anza region,California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Q.; Wdowinski, S.; Lin, G.

    2011-12-01

    The San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) exhibits the highest level of seismicity compared to other regions in southern California. On average, it produces four earthquakes per day, most of them at depth of 10-17 km. Over the past decade, an increasing seismic activity occurred in the Anza region, which included three M5~5.5 events and their aftershock sequences. These events occurred in 2001, 2005, and 2010. In this research we map the 3-D distribution of these three events to evaluate their rupture geometry and better understand the unusual deep seismic pattern along the SJFZ, which was termed "deep creep" (Wdowinski, 2009). We relocated 97,562 events from 1981 to 2011 in Anza region by applying the Source-Specific Station Term (SSST) method (Lin et al., 2006) and used an accurate 1-D velocity model derived from 3-D model of Lin et al (2007) and used In order to separate the aftershock sequence from background seismicity, we characterized each of the three aftershock sequences using Omori's law. Preliminary results show that all three sequences had a similar geometry of deep elongated aftershock distribution. Most aftershocks occurred at depth of 10-17 km and extended over a 70 km long segments of the SJFZ, centered at the mainshock hypocenters. A comparative study of other M5~5.5 mainshocks and their aftershock sequences in southern California reveals very different geometrical pattern, suggesting that the three Anza M5~5.5 events are unique and can be indicative of "deep creep" deformation processes. Reference 1.Lin, G.and Shearer,P.M.,2006, The COMPLOC earthquake location package,Seism. Res. Lett.77, pp.440-444. 2.Lin, G. and Shearer, P.M., Hauksson, E., and Thurber C.H.,2007, A three-dimensional crustal seismic velocity model for southern California from a composite event method,J. Geophys.Res.112, B12306, doi: 10.1029/ 2007JB004977. 3.Wdowinski, S. ,2009, Deep creep as a cause for the excess seismicity along the San Jacinto fault, Nat. Geosci.,doi:10.1038/NGEO684.

  11. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Strong Ground Motion and Ground Failure

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coordinated by Holzer, Thomas L.

    1992-01-01

    Professional Paper 1551 describes the effects at the land surface caused by the Loma Prieta earthquake. These effects: include the pattern and characteristics of strong ground shaking, liquefaction of both floodplain deposits along the Pajaro and Salinas Rivers in the Monterey Bay region and sandy artificial fills along the margins of San Francisco Bay, landslides in the epicentral region, and increased stream flow. Some significant findings and their impacts were: * Strong shaking that was amplified by a factor of about two by soft soils caused damage at up to 100 kilometers (60 miles) from the epicenter. * Instrumental recordings of the ground shaking have been used to improve how building codes consider site amplification effects from soft soils. * Liquefaction at 134 locations caused $99.2 million of the total earthquake loss of $5.9 billion. Liquefaction of floodplain deposits and sandy artificial fills was similar in nature to that which occurred in the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and indicated that many areas remain susceptible to liquefaction damage in the San Francisco and Monterey Bay regions. * Landslides caused $30 million in earthquake losses, damaging at least 200 residences. Many landslides showed evidence of movement in previous earthquakes. * Recognition of the similarities between liquefaction and landslides in 1906 and 1989 and research in intervening years that established methodologies to map liquefaction and landslide hazards prompted the California legislature to pass in 1990 the Seismic Hazards Mapping Act that required the California Geological Survey to delineate regulatory zones of areas potentially susceptible to these hazards. * The earthquake caused the flow of many streams in the epicentral region to increase. Effects were noted up to 88 km from the epicenter. * Post-earthquake studies of the Marina District of San Francisco provide perhaps the most comprehensive case history of earthquake effects at a specific site developed for

  12. Multi-sensor Integration of Space and Ground Observations of Pre-earthquake Anomalies Associated with M6.0, August 24, 2014 Napa, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouzounov, Dimitar; Tramutoli, Valerio; Pulinets, Sergey; Liu, Tiger; Filizzola, Carolina; Genzano, Nicola; Lisi, Mariano; Petrov, Leonid; Kafatos, Menas

    2015-04-01

    We integrate multiple space-born and ground sensors for monitoring pre-earthquake geophysical anomalies that can provide significant early notification for earthquakes higher than M5.5 worldwide. The latest M6.0 event of August 24, 2014 in South Napa, California generated pre-earthquake signatures during our outgoing tests for California, and an experimental warning was documented about 17 days in advance. We process in controlled environment different satellite and ground data for California (and several other test areas) by using: a) data from the NPOES sensors recording OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) in the infrared; b) 2/GNSS, FORMOSAT (GPS/TEC); c) Earth Observing System assimilation models from NASA; d) ground-based gas observations and meteorological data; e) TIR (Thermal Infrared) data from geostationary satellite (GOES). On Aug 4th, we detected (prospectively) a large anomaly of OLR transient field at the TOA over Northern California. The location was shifted in the northeast direction about 150 km from the Aug 23rd epicentral area. Compared to the reference field of August 2004 to 2014 the hotspot anomaly was the largest energy flux anomaly over the entire continental United States at this time. Based on the temporal and spatial estimates of the anomaly, on August 4th we issued an internal warning for a M5.5+ earthquake in Northern California within the next 1-4 weeks. TIR retrospective analysis showed significant (spatially extended and temporally persistent) sequences of TIR anomalies starting August 1st just in the future epicenter area and approximately in the same area affected by OLR anomalies in the following days. GPS/TEC retrospective analysis based on GIM and TGIM products show anomalies TEC variations 1-3 days, over region north form the Napa earthquake epicenter. The calculated index of atmospheric chemical potential based on the NASA numerical Assimilation weather model GEOS5 indicates for abnormal variations near the epicentral area days

  13. Lower crustal earthquake swarms beneath Mammoth Mountain, California - evidence for the magmatic roots to the Mammoth Mountain mafic volcanic field?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hill, D. P.; Shelly, D. R.

    2010-12-01

    Mammoth Mountain is a cluster of dacitic domes erupted ~ 68 ka. It stands on the SW topographic rim of Long Valley caldera in eastern CA. Structurally, it is outboard of the caldera ring-fracture system and its magmatic system is genetically distinct from that of the caldera. It resides within a field of mafic (basaltic) vents that erupted between 190 - 8 ka. A series of phreatic explosions from the north flank of the mountain some 700 ybp attest to the infusion of heat to shallow depths shortly prior to the 600 ybp eruptions of the Inyo Domes 6 to 12 km north of the Mountain. Unrest beneath Mammoth Mountain since 1980 has included 1) swarms of brittle-failure earthquakes in the upper 10 km of the crust that define concentric elliptical ring-like patterns centered beneath the summit, 2) mid-crustal (depths 10 to 20 km) long-period volcanic earthquakes, 3) the onset of diffuse CO2 degassing in 1990 following an 11-month-long swarm of shallow (<10 km), brittle-failure earthquakes in 1989, 4) occasional very-long-period earthquakes at depths of ~ 3 km, and 5) brief swarms of lower-crustal, brittle-failure earthquakes at depths of 20 to 30 km, including sizable episodes June 16-17, 2006 and September 29-30, 2009. Seismic waveform correlation analysis at multiple stations reveals that these lower-crustal, brittle-failure swarms consist of tens to hundreds of repeated similar events and also serves to identify many events not included in the Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN) catalog. In the case of the 2009 episode, an evolution in waveform is clearly discernible over the sequence, suggesting a corresponding evolution in source location or mechanism. Work is ongoing to take advantage of the waveform similarity to estimate precise hypocentral locations of these events in order to distinguish between these possibilities.We suggest that the brittle-failure earthquakes at depths of 20 to 30 km are occurring within the more mafic mid- to lower-crust, which can remain

  14. Maximum Magnitude and Probabilities of Induced Earthquakes in California Geothermal Fields: Applications for a Science-Based Decision Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiser, Deborah Anne

    Induced seismicity is occurring at increasing rates around the country. Brodsky and Lajoie (2013) and others have recognized anthropogenic quakes at a few geothermal fields in California. I use three techniques to assess if there are induced earthquakes in California geothermal fields; there are three sites with clear induced seismicity: Brawley, The Geysers, and Salton Sea. Moderate to strong evidence is found at Casa Diablo, Coso, East Mesa, and Susanville. Little to no evidence is found for Heber and Wendel. I develop a set of tools to reduce or cope with the risk imposed by these earthquakes, and also to address uncertainties through simulations. I test if an earthquake catalog may be bounded by an upper magnitude limit. I address whether the earthquake record during pumping time is consistent with the past earthquake record, or if injection can explain all or some of the earthquakes. I also present ways to assess the probability of future earthquake occurrence based on past records. I summarize current legislation for eight states where induced earthquakes are of concern. Unlike tectonic earthquakes, the hazard from induced earthquakes has the potential to be modified. I discuss direct and indirect mitigation practices. I present a framework with scientific and communication techniques for assessing uncertainty, ultimately allowing more informed decisions to be made.

  15. Water-level changes induced by local and distant earthquakes at Long Valley caldera, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roeloffs, Evelyn; Sneed, Michelle; Galloway, Devin L.; Sorey, Michael L.; Farrar, Christopher D.; Howle, James F.; Hughes, Jennifer

    2003-10-01

    Distant as well as local earthquakes have induced groundwater-level changes persisting for days to weeks at Long Valley caldera, California. Four wells open to formations as deep as 300 m have responded to 16 earthquakes, and responses to two earthquakes in the 3-km-deep Long Valley Exploratory Well (LVEW) show that these changes are not limited to weathered or unconsolidated near-surface rocks. All five wells exhibit water-level variations in response to earth tides, indicating they can be used as low-resolution strainmeters. Earthquakes induce gradual water-level changes that increase in amplitude for as long as 30 days, then return more slowly to pre-earthquake levels. The gradual water-level changes are always drops at wells LKT, LVEW, and CH-10B, and always rises at well CW-3. At a dilatometer just outside the caldera, earthquake-induced strain responses consist of either a step followed by a contractional strain-rate increase, or a transient contractional signal that reaches a maximum in about seven days and then returns toward the pre-earthquake value. The sizes of the gradual water-level changes generally increase with earthquake magnitude and decrease with hypocentral distance. Local earthquakes in Long Valley produce coseismic water-level steps; otherwise the responses to local earthquakes and distant earthquakes are indistinguishable. In particular, water-level and strain changes in Long Valley following the 1992 M7.3 Landers earthquake, 450 km distant, closely resemble those initiated by a M4.9 local earthquake on November 22, 1997, during a seismic swarm with features indicative of fluid involvement. At the LKT well, many of the response time histories are identical for 20 days after each earthquake, and can be matched by a theoretical solution giving the pore pressure as a function of time due to diffusion of a nearby, instantaneous, pressure drop. Such pressure drops could be produced by accelerated inflation of the resurgent dome by amounts too

  16. Water-level changes induced by local and distant earthquakes at Long Valley caldera, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roeloffs, E.; Sneed, M.; Galloway, D.L.; Sorey, M.L.; Farrar, C.D.; Howle, J.F.; Hughes, J.

    2003-01-01

    Distant as well as local earthquakes have induced groundwater-level changes persisting for days to weeks at Long Valley caldera, California. Four wells open to formations as deep as 300 m have responded to 16 earthquakes, and responses to two earthquakes in the 3-km-deep Long Valley Exploratory Well (LVEW) show that these changes are not limited to weathered or unconsolidated near-surface rocks. All five wells exhibit water-level variations in response to earth tides, indicating they can be used as low-resolution strainmeters. Earthquakes induce gradual water-level changes that increase in amplitude for as long as 30 days, then return more slowly to pre-earthquake levels. The gradual water-level changes are always drops at wells LKT, LVEW, and CH-10B, and always rises at well CW-3. At a dilatometer just outside the caldera, earthquake-induced strain responses consist of either a step followed by a contractional strain-rate increase, or a transient contractional signal that reaches a maximum in about seven days and then returns toward the pre-earthquake value. The sizes of the gradual water-level changes generally increase with earthquake magnitude and decrease with hypocentral distance. Local earthquakes in Long Valley produce coseismic water-level steps; otherwise the responses to local earthquakes and distant earthquakes are indistinguishable. In particular, water-level and strain changes in Long Valley following the 1992 M7.3 Landers earthquake, 450 km distant, closely resemble those initiated by a M4.9 local earthquake on November 22, 1997, during a seismic swarm with features indicative of fluid involvement. At the LKT well, many of the response time histories are identical for 20 days after each earthquake, and can be matched by a theoretical solution giving the pore pressure as a function of time due to diffusion of a nearby, instantaneous, pressure drop. Such pressure drops could be produced by accelerated inflation of the resurgent dome by amounts too

  17. CISN ShakeAlert: Progress Toward Using Early Warnings for Earthquakes in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hellweg, M.; Allen, R. M.; Brown, H.; Neuhauser, D. S.; Khainovsky, O.; Cisn Earthquake Early Warning Team

    2010-12-01

    In California, the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) is now developing and implementing components of a prototype system for earthquake early warning, the ShakeAlert system. As this processing system is implemented, we invite a suite of perspective users from critical industries and institutions throughout California to partner with us in developing useful ShakeAlert procedures and products. At the same time, we will support their efforts to determine and implement appropriate responses to alerts of expected earthquake shaking. In Northern California, our partnership with the Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) has progressed farthest, although we have initiated discussions with the Red Cross of Alameda County and various agencies in the City of San Francisco. Our collaboration with BART has begun with a basic system transmitting realtime ground shaking information from more than 150 seismic stations operating in the San Francisco Bay Area to BART's operation center, where they are displayed. BART engineers are developing a way to interface this information with the train operating system, so that the trains can automatically slow and stop if the shaking is strong. We will continue this collaboration to include more sophisticated information from the prototype CISN ShakeAlert system.

  18. Cruise report for 01-99-SC: southern California earthquake hazards project

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Normark, William R.; Reid, Jane A.; Sliter, Ray W.; Holton, David; Gutmacher, Christina E.; Fisher, Michael A.; Childs, Jonathan R.

    1999-01-01

    The focus of the Southern California Earthquake Hazards project is to identify the landslide and earthquake hazards and related ground-deformation processes occurring in the offshore areas that have significant potential to impact the inhabitants of the Southern California coastal region. The project activity is supported through the Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the Geologic Division of the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) and is a component of the Geologic Division's Science Strategy under Goal 1—Conduct Geologic Hazard Assessments for Mitigation Planning (Bohlen et al., 1998). The project research is specifically stated under Activity 1.1.2 of the Science Strategy: Earthquake Hazard Assessments and Loss Reduction Products in Urban Regions. This activity involves "research, seismic and geodetic monitoring, field studies, geologic mapping, and analyses needed to provide seismic hazard assessments of major urban centers in earthquake-prone regions including adjoining coastal and offshore areas." The southern California urban areas, which form the most populated urban corridor along the U.S. Pacific margin, are among a few specifically designated for special emphasis under the Division's science strategy (Bohlen et al., 1998). The primary objective of the project is to help mitigate the earthquake hazards for the Southern California region by improving our understanding of how deformation is distributed (spatially and temporally) in the offshore with respect to the onshore region. To meet this objective, we are conducting field investigations to observe the distribution, character, and relative intensity of active (i.e., primarily Holocene) deformation within the basins and along the shelf adjacent to the most highly populated areas (Fig. 1). In addition, acoustic imaging should help determine the subsurface dimensions of the faults and identify the size and frequency of submarine landslides, both of which are necessary for evaluating the potential for

  19. Chapter C. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Landslides

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keefer, David K.

    1998-01-01

    Central California, in the vicinity of San Francisco and Monterey Bays, has a history of fatal and damaging landslides, triggered by heavy rainfall, coastal and stream erosion, construction activity, and earthquakes. The great 1906 San Francisco earthquake (MS=8.2-8.3) generated more than 10,000 landslides throughout an area of 32,000 km2; these landslides killed at least 11 people and caused substantial damage to buildings, roads, railroads, and other civil works. Smaller numbers of landslides, which caused more localized damage, have also been reported from at least 20 other earthquakes that have occurred in the San Francisco Bay-Monterey Bay region since 1838. Conditions that make this region particularly susceptible to landslides include steep and rugged topography, weak rock and soil materials, seasonally heavy rainfall, and active seismicity. Given these conditions and history, it was no surprise that the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake generated thousands of landslides throughout the region. Landslides caused one fatality and damaged at least 200 residences, numerous roads, and many other structures. Direct damage from landslides probably exceeded $30 million; additional, indirect economic losses were caused by long-term landslide blockage of two major highways and by delays in rebuilding brought about by concern over the potential long-term instability of some earthquake-damaged slopes.

  20. WHITTIER NARROWS, CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE OF OCTOBER 1, 1987-PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF STRONG GROUND MOTION RECORDS.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brady, A.G.; Etheredge, E.C.; Porcella, R.L.

    1988-01-01

    More than 250 strong-motion accelerograph stations were triggered by the Whittier Narrows, California earthquake of 1 October 1987. Considering the number of multichannel structural stations in the area of strong shaking, this set of records is one of the more significant in history. Three networks, operated by the U. S. Geological Survey, the California Division of Mines and Geology, and the University of Southern California produced the majority of the records. The excellent performance of the instruments in these and the smaller arrays is attributable to the quality of the maintenance programs. Readiness for a magnitude 8 event is directly related to these maintenance programs. Prior to computer analysis of the analog film records, a number of important structural resonant modes can be identified, and frequencies and simple mode shapes have been scaled.

  1. Calculation of the Rate of M>6.5 Earthquakes for California and Adjacent Portions of Nevada and Mexico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Frankel, Arthur; Mueller, Charles

    2008-01-01

    One of the key issues in the development of an earthquake recurrence model for California and adjacent portions of Nevada and Mexico is the comparison of the predicted rates of earthquakes with the observed rates. Therefore, it is important to make an accurate determination of the observed rate of M>6.5 earthquakes in California and the adjacent region. We have developed a procedure to calculate observed earthquake rates from an earthquake catalog, accounting for magnitude uncertainty and magnitude rounding. We present a Bayesian method that corrects for the effect of the magnitude uncertainty in calculating the observed rates. Our recommended determination of the observed rate of M>6.5 in this region is 0.246 ? 0.085 (for two sigma) per year, although this rate is likely to be underestimated because of catalog incompleteness and this uncertainty estimate does not include all sources of uncertainty.

  2. Moderate, strong and strongest earthquake-prone areas in the Caucasus, California and the Andes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dzeboev, Boris; Gvishiani, Alexei

    2016-04-01

    We present this study on recognition of areas of possible occurrence of strong earthquakes. The study deals with the earthquake-prone areas in three regions with different geological and tectonic structures located in different parts of the world. The authors created a new method (FCAZ - Fuzzy Clustering and Zoning) for recognition of highly seismic areas, where epicenters of earthquakes with magnitude M≥M0 can occur. The magnitude threshold M0 depends on the seismic activity of the region. The objects of clustering are earthquake epicenters. The new method allows us to implement uniformly necessary clustering of the recognition objects respectively for moderate, strong and strongest events. Suggested approach consists of two steps: clustering of known earthquake epicenters by the original DPS (Discrete Perfect Sets) algorithm and delineating highly seismic zones around the recognized clusters by another original E2XT algorithm. By means of this method we detected the areas of possible occurrence of the epicenters of strong earthquakes in the Caucasus (M≥5), in California (M≥6.5) and in the mountain belt of the Andes (M≥7.75). The latter case relates to the possible areas of natural disaster occurence. Reliability of the results is confirmed by numerous control experiments, including individual and complete seismic history. Two strongest recent Chilean earthquakes occurred in 2014 and 2015 after the moment the results were published. Their epicenters belong to the zone recognized as high seismically hazardous. It is a strong independent argument which confirms the reliability of the results. The presented results integrate most recent outcomes of more than 40 years of research in pattern recognition and systems analysis for seismic zoning implemented in Russian Academy of Science. This research is supported by the Russian Science Foundation (project № 15-17-30020).

  3. Continuous GPS observations of postseismic deformation following the 16 October 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake (Mw 7.1)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hudnutt, K.W.; King, N.E.; Galetzka, J.E.; Stark, K.F.; Behr, J.A.; Aspiotes, A.; van, Wyk S.; Moffitt, R.; Dockter, S.; Wyatt, F.

    2002-01-01

    Rapid field deployment of a new type of continuously operating Global Positioning System (GPS) network and data from Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN) stations that had recently begun operating in the area allow unique observations of the postseismic deformation associated with the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake. Innovative solutions in fieldcraft, devised for the 11 new GPS stations, provide high-quality observations with 1-year time histories on stable monuments at remote sites. We report on our results from processing the postseismic GPS data available from these sites, as well as 8 other SCIGN stations within 80 km of the event (a total of 19 sites). From these data, we analyze the temporal character and spatial pattern of the postseismic transients. Data from some sites display statistically significant time variation in their velocities. Although this is less certain, the spatial pattern of change in the postseismic velocity field also appears to have changed. The pattern now is similar to the pre-Landers (pre-1992) secular field, but laterally shifted and locally at twice the rate. We speculate that a 30 km ?? 50 km portion of crust (near Twentynine Palms), which was moving at nearly the North American plate rate (to within 3.5 mm/yr of that rate) prior to the 1992 Landers sequence, now is moving along with the crust to the west of it, as though it has been entrained in flow along with the Pacific Plate as a result of the Landers and Hector Mine earthquake sequence. The inboard axis of right-lateral shear deformation (at lower crustal to upper mantle depth) may have jumped 30 km farther into the continental crust at this fault junction that comprises the southern end of the eastern California shear zone.

  4. Detection of crustal deformation from the Landers earthquake sequence using continuous geodetic measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bock, Yehuda; Agnew, Duncan C.; Fang, Peng; Genrich, Joachim F.; Hager, Bradford H.; Herring, Thomas A.; Hudnut, Kenneth W.; King, Robert W.; Larsen, Shawn; Minster, J.-B.

    1993-01-01

    The first measurements are reported for a major earthquake by a continuously operating GPS network, the permanent GPS Genetic ARRY (PGGA) in southern California. The Landers and Big Bear earthquakes of June 28, 1992 were monitored by daily observations. Ten weeks of measurements indicate significant coseismic motion at all PGGA sites, significant postseismic motion at one site for two weeks after the earthquakes, and no significant preseismic motion. These measurements demonstrate the potential of GPS monitoring for precise detection of precursory and aftershock seismic deformation in the near and far field.

  5. Earthquake Rate Model 2.2 of the 2007 Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities, Appendix D: Magnitude-Area Relationships

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stein, Ross S.

    2007-01-01

    Summary To estimate the down-dip coseismic fault dimension, W, the Executive Committee has chosen the Nazareth and Hauksson (2004) method, which uses the 99% depth of background seismicity to assign W. For the predicted earthquake magnitude-fault area scaling used to estimate the maximum magnitude of an earthquake rupture from a fault's length, L, and W, the Committee has assigned equal weight to the Ellsworth B (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2003) and Hanks and Bakun (2002) (as updated in 2007) equations. The former uses a single relation; the latter uses a bilinear relation which changes slope at M=6.65 (A=537 km2).

  6. Seismic velocity structure and earthquake relocation for the magmatic system beneath Long Valley Caldera, eastern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Guoqing

    2015-04-01

    A new three-dimensional (3-D) seismic velocity model and high-precision location catalog for earthquakes between 1984 and 2014 are presented for Long Valley Caldera and its adjacent fault zones in eastern California. The simul2000 tomography algorithm is applied to derive the 3-D Vp and Vp/Vs models using first-arrivals of 1004 composite earthquakes obtained from the original seismic data at the Northern California Earthquake Data Center. The resulting Vp model reflects geological structures and agrees with previous local tomographic studies. The simultaneously resolved Vp/Vs model is a major contribution of this study providing an important complement to the Vp model for the interpretation of structural heterogeneities and physical properties in the study area. The caldera is dominated by low Vp anomalies at shallow depths due to postcaldera fill. High Vp and low Vp/Vs values are resolved from the surface to ~ 3.4 km depth beneath the center of the caldera, corresponding to the structural uplift of the Resurgent Dome. An aseismic body with low Vp and high Vp/Vs anomalies at 4.2-6.2 km depth below the surface is consistent with the location of partial melt suggested by previous studies based on Vp models only and the inflation source locations based on geodetic modeling. The Sierran crystalline rocks outside the caldera are generally characterized with high Vp and low Vp/Vs values. The newly resolved velocity model improves absolute location accuracy for the seismicity in the study area and ultimately provides the basis for a high-precision earthquake catalog based on similar-event cluster analysis and waveform cross-correlation data. The fine-scale velocity structure and precise earthquake relocations are useful for investigating magma sources, seismicity and stress interaction and other seismological studies in Long Valley.

  7. California Fault Parameters for the National Seismic Hazard Maps and Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities 2007

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wills, Chris J.; Weldon, Ray J.; Bryant, W.A.

    2008-01-01

    This report describes development of fault parameters for the 2007 update of the National Seismic Hazard Maps and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007). These reference parameters are contained within a database intended to be a source of values for use by scientists interested in producing either seismic hazard or deformation models to better understand the current seismic hazards in California. These parameters include descriptions of the geometry and rates of movements of faults throughout the state. These values are intended to provide a starting point for development of more sophisticated deformation models which include known rates of movement on faults as well as geodetic measurements of crustal movement and the rates of movements of the tectonic plates. The values will be used in developing the next generation of the time-independent National Seismic Hazard Maps, and the time-dependant seismic hazard calculations being developed for the WGCEP. Due to the multiple uses of this information, development of these parameters has been coordinated between USGS, CGS and SCEC. SCEC provided the database development and editing tools, in consultation with USGS, Golden. This database has been implemented in Oracle and supports electronic access (e.g., for on-the-fly access). A GUI-based application has also been developed to aid in populating the database. Both the continually updated 'living' version of this database, as well as any locked-down official releases (e.g., used in a published model for calculating earthquake probabilities or seismic shaking hazards) are part of the USGS Quaternary Fault and Fold Database http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/qfaults/ . CGS has been primarily responsible for updating and editing of the fault parameters, with extensive input from USGS and SCEC scientists.

  8. Scenario earthquake hazards for the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, east-central California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chen, Rui; Branum, David M.; Wills, Chris J.; Hill, David P.

    2014-01-01

    As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) multi-hazards project in the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, the California Geological Survey (CGS) developed several earthquake scenarios and evaluated potential seismic hazards, including ground shaking, surface fault rupture, liquefaction, and landslide hazards associated with these earthquake scenarios. The results of these analyses can be useful in estimating the extent of potential damage and economic losses because of potential earthquakes and in preparing emergency response plans. The Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area has numerous active faults. Five of these faults or fault zones are considered capable of producing magnitude ≥6.7 earthquakes according to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2) developed by the 2007 Working Group of California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) and the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping (NSHM) Program. These five faults are the Fish Slough, Hartley Springs, Hilton Creek, Mono Lake, and Round Valley Faults. CGS developed earthquake scenarios for these five faults in the study area and for the White Mountains Fault to the east of the study area. Earthquake scenarios are intended to depict the potential consequences of significant earthquakes. They are not necessarily the largest or most damaging earthquakes possible. Earthquake scenarios are both large enough and likely enough that emergency planners should consider them in regional emergency response plans. Earthquake scenarios presented here are based on fault geometry and activity data developed by the WGCEP, and are consistent with the 2008 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHM).For the Hilton Creek Fault, two alternative scenarios were developed in addition to the NSHM scenario to account for different opinions in how far north the fault extends into the Long Valley Caldera. For each scenario, ground motions were calculated using the current standard practice

  9. Earthquake Education and Public Information Centers: A Collaboration Between the Earthquake Country Alliance and Free-Choice Learning Institutions in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Degroot, R. M.; Springer, K.; Brooks, C. J.; Schuman, L.; Dalton, D.; Benthien, M. L.

    2009-12-01

    In 1999 the Southern California Earthquake Center initiated an effort to expand its reach to multiple target audiences through the development of an interpretive trail on the San Andreas fault at Wallace Creek and an earthquake exhibit at Fingerprints Youth Museum in Hemet. These projects and involvement with the San Bernardino County Museum in Redlands beginning in 2007 led to the creation of Earthquake Education and Public Information Centers (EPIcenters) in 2008. The impetus for the development of the network was to broaden participation in The Great Southern California ShakeOut. In 2009 it has grown to be more comprehensive in its scope including its evolution into a statewide network. EPIcenters constitute a variety of free-choice learning institutions, representing museums, science centers, libraries, universities, parks, and other places visited by a variety of audiences including families, seniors, and school groups. They share a commitment to demonstrating and encouraging earthquake preparedness. EPIcenters coordinate Earthquake Country Alliance activities in their county or region, lead presentations or organize events in their communities, or in other ways demonstrate leadership in earthquake education and risk reduction. The San Bernardino County Museum (Southern California) and The Tech Museum of Innovation (Northern California) serve as EPIcenter regional coordinating institutions. They interact with over thirty institutional partners who have implemented a variety of activities from displays and talks to earthquake exhibitions. While many activities are focused on the time leading up to and just after the ShakeOut, most EPIcenter members conduct activities year round. Network members at Kidspace Museum in Pasadena and San Diego Natural History Museum have formed EPIcenter focus groups on early childhood education and safety and security. This presentation highlights the development of the EPIcenter network, synergistic activities resulting from this

  10. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group: Promoting Earthquake and Tsunami Resilience on California's North Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dengler, L. A.; Henderson, C.; Larkin, D.; Nicolini, T.; Ozaki, V.

    2014-12-01

    In historic times, Northern California has suffered the greatest losses from tsunamis in the U.S. contiguous 48 states. 39 tsunamis have been recorded in the region since 1933, including five that caused damage. This paper describes the Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization formed in 1996 to address the tsunami threat from both near and far sources. It includes representatives from government agencies, public, private and volunteer organizations, academic institutions, and individuals interested in working to reduce tsunami risk. The geographic isolation and absence of scientific agencies such as the USGS and CGS in the region, and relatively frequent occurrence of both earthquakes and tsunami events has created a unique role for the RCTWG, with activities ranging from basic research to policy and education and outreach programs. Regional interest in tsunami issues began in the early 1990s when there was relatively little interest in tsunamis elsewhere in the state. As a result, the group pioneered tsunami messaging and outreach programs. Beginning in 2008, the RCTWG has partnered with the National Weather Service and the California Office of Emergency Services in conducting the annual "live code" tsunami communications tests, the only area outside of Alaska to do so. In 2009, the RCTWG joined with the Southern California Earthquake Alliance and the Bay Area Earthquake Alliance to form the Earthquake Country Alliance to promote a coordinated and consistent approach to both earthquake and tsunami preparedness throughout the state. The RCTWG has produced and promoted a variety of preparedness projects including hazard mapping and sign placement, an annual "Earthquake - Tsunami Room" at County Fairs, public service announcements and print material, assisting in TsunamiReady community recognition, and facilitating numerous multi-agency, multidiscipline coordinated exercises, and community evacuation drills. Nine assessment surveys from 1993 to 2013

  11. Impact of a Large San Andreas Fault Earthquake on Tall Buildings in Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krishnan, S.; Ji, C.; Komatitsch, D.; Tromp, J.

    2004-12-01

    In 1857, an earthquake of magnitude 7.9 occurred on the San Andreas fault, starting at Parkfield and rupturing in a southeasterly direction for more than 300~km. Such a unilateral rupture produces significant directivity toward the San Fernando and Los Angeles basins. The strong shaking in the basins due to this earthquake would have had a significant long-period content (2--8~s). If such motions were to happen today, they could have a serious impact on tall buildings in Southern California. In order to study the effects of large San Andreas fault earthquakes on tall buildings in Southern California, we use the finite source of the magnitude 7.9 2001 Denali fault earthquake in Alaska and map it onto the San Andreas fault with the rupture originating at Parkfield and proceeding southward over a distance of 290~km. Using the SPECFEM3D spectral element seismic wave propagation code, we simulate a Denali-like earthquake on the San Andreas fault and compute ground motions at sites located on a grid with a 2.5--5.0~km spacing in the greater Southern California region. We subsequently analyze 3D structural models of an existing tall steel building designed in 1984 as well as one designed according to the current building code (Uniform Building Code, 1997) subjected to the computed ground motion. We use a sophisticated nonlinear building analysis program, FRAME3D, that has the ability to simulate damage in buildings due to three-component ground motion. We summarize the performance of these structural models on contour maps of carefully selected structural performance indices. This study could benefit the city in laying out emergency response strategies in the event of an earthquake on the San Andreas fault, in undertaking appropriate retrofit measures for tall buildings, and in formulating zoning regulations for new construction. In addition, the study would provide risk data associated with existing and new construction to insurance companies, real estate developers, and

  12. Premonitory patterns of seismicity months before a large earthquake: Five case histories in Southern California

    PubMed Central

    Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Shebalin, P. N.; Zaliapin, I. V.

    2002-01-01

    This article explores the problem of short-term earthquake prediction based on spatio-temporal variations of seismicity. Previous approaches to this problem have used precursory seismicity patterns that precede large earthquakes with “intermediate” lead times of years. Examples include increases of earthquake correlation range and increases of seismic activity. Here, we look for a renormalization of these patterns that would reduce the predictive lead time from years to months. We demonstrate a combination of renormalized patterns that preceded within 1–7 months five large (M ≥ 6.4) strike-slip earthquakes in southeastern California since 1960. An algorithm for short-term prediction is formulated. The algorithm is self-adapting to the level of seismicity: it can be transferred without readaptation from earthquake to earthquake and from area to area. Exhaustive retrospective tests show that the algorithm is stable to variations of its adjustable elements. This finding encourages further tests in other regions. The final test, as always, should be advance prediction. The suggested algorithm has a simple qualitative interpretation in terms of deformations around a soon-to-break fault: the blocks surrounding that fault began to move as a whole. A more general interpretation comes from the phenomenon of self-similarity since our premonitory patterns retain their predictive power after renormalization to smaller spatial and temporal scales. The suggested algorithm is designed to provide a short-term approximation to an intermediate-term prediction. It remains unclear whether it could be used independently. It seems worthwhile to explore similar renormalizations for other premonitory seismicity patterns. PMID:12482945

  13. Broadband records of earthquakes in deep gold mines and a comparison with results from SAFOD, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGarr, A.; Boettcher, M.; Fletcher, Joe B.; Sell, R.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Durrheim, R.; Spottiswoode, S.; Milev, A.

    2009-01-01

    For one week during September 2007, we deployed a temporary network of field recorders and accelerometers at four sites within two deep, seismically active mines. The ground-motion data, recorded at 200 samples/sec, are well suited to determining source and ground-motion parameters for the mining-induced earthquakes within and adjacent to our network. Four earthquakes with magnitudes close to 2 were recorded with high signal/noise at all four sites. Analysis of seismic moments and peak velocities, in conjunction with the results of laboratory stick-slip friction experiments, were used to estimate source processes that are key to understanding source physics and to assessing underground seismic hazard. The maximum displacements on the rupture surfaces can be estimated from the parameter Rv, where v is the peak ground velocity at a given recording site, and R is the hypocentral distance. For each earthquake, the maximum slip and seismic moment can be combined with results from laboratory friction experiments to estimate the maximum slip rate within the rupture zone. Analysis of the four M 2 earthquakes recorded during our deployment and one of special interest recorded by the in-mine seismic network in 2004 revealed maximum slips ranging from 4 to 27 mm and maximum slip rates from 1.1 to 6:3 m=sec. Applying the same analyses to an M 2.1 earthquake within a cluster of repeating earthquakes near the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth site, California, yielded similar results for maximum slip and slip rate, 14 mm and 4:0 m=sec.

  14. Earthquakes

    MedlinePlus

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

  15. Cruise report for A1-00-SC southern California earthquake hazards project, part A

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gutmacher, Christina E.; Normark, William R.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Edwards, Brian D.; Sliter, Ray; Hart, Patrick; Cooper, Becky; Childs, Jon; Reid, Jane A.

    2000-01-01

    A three-week cruise to obtain high-resolution boomer and multichannel seismic-reflection profiles supported two project activities of the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology (CMG) Program: (1) evaluating the earthquake and related geologic hazards posed by faults in the near offshore area of southern California and (2) determining the pathways through which sea-water is intruding into aquifers of Los Angeles County in the area of the Long Beach and Los Angeles harbors. The 2000 cruise, A1-00-SC, is the third major data-collection effort in support of the first objective (Normark et al., 1999a, b); one more cruise is planned for 2002. This report deals primarily with the shipboard operations related to the earthquake-hazard activity. The sea-water intrusion survey is confined to shallow water and the techniques used are somewhat different from that of the hazards survey (see Edwards et al., in preparation).

  16. Wastewater disposal and earthquake swarm activity at the southern end of the Central Valley, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goebel, T. H. W.; Hosseini, S. M.; Cappa, F.; Hauksson, E.; Ampuero, J. P.; Aminzadeh, F.; Saleeby, J. B.

    2016-02-01

    Fracture and fault zones can channel fluid flow and transmit injection-induced pore pressure changes over large distances (>km), at which seismicity is rarely suspected to be human induced. We use seismicity analysis and hydrogeological models to examine the role of seismically active faults in inducing earthquakes. We analyze a potentially injection-induced earthquake swarm with three events above M4 near the White Wolf fault (WWF). The swarm deviates from classic main aftershock behavior, exhibiting uncharacteristically low Gutenberg-Richter b of 0.6, and systematic migration patterns. Some smaller events occurred southeast of the WWF in an area of several disposal wells, one of which became active just 5 months before the main swarm activity. Hydrogeological modeling revealed that wastewater disposal likely contributed to seismicity via localized pressure increase along a seismically active fault. Our results suggest that induced seismicity may remain undetected in California without detailed analysis of local geologic setting, seismicity, and fluid diffusion.

  17. CSMIP (California Strong Motion Instrumentation Program) strong-motion records from the Santa Cruz Mountains (Loma Prieta), California earthquake of 17 October 1989

    SciTech Connect

    Shakal, A.; Reichle, M.; Ventura, C.; Cao, T.; Sherburne, R.; Savage, M.; Darragh, R.; Petersen, C.

    1990-01-01

    Strong-motion records were recovered from 93 stations of the California Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (CSMIP) after the earthquake. CSMIP provides information on the force of ground motion and the deformation induced in structures and in rock and soil by earthquake-generated ground motion. This information is recorded by strong-motion sensors placed in engineered structures and at free field (ground) sites, and is used by earthquake engineers and earth scientists to improve the design of earthquake-resistant structures. The strong-motion instrumentation program was established after the San Fernando earthquake in 1971. A total of 125 records were recovered from the 93 CSMIP stations which recorded the Loma Prieta event. These 125 records contain data from a total of 690 strong-motion sensors. These data are important because of the unique structures and sites at which records were obtained during this event. Some highlights of particular interest are included in this paper.

  18. Retardations in fault creep rates before local moderate earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system, central California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burford, R.O.

    1988-01-01

    Records of shallow aseismic slip (fault creep) obtained along parts of the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in central California demonstrate that significant changes in creep rates often have been associated with local moderate earthquakes. An immediate postearthquake increase followed by gradual, long-term decay back to a previous background rate is generally the most obvious earthquake effect on fault creep. This phenomenon, identified as aseismic afterslip, usually is characterized by above-average creep rates for several months to a few years. In several cases, minor step-like movements, called coseismic slip events, have occurred at or near the times of mainshocks. One extreme case of coseismic slip, recorded at Cienega Winery on the San Andreas fault 17.5 km southeast of San Juan Bautista, consisted of 11 mm of sudden displacement coincident with earthquakes of ML=5.3 and ML=5.2 that occurred 2.5 minutes apart on 9 April 1961. At least one of these shocks originated on the main fault beneath the winery. Creep activity subsequently stopped at the winery for 19 months, then gradually returned to a nearly steady rate slightly below the previous long-term average. The phenomena mentioned above can be explained in terms of simple models consisting of relatively weak material along shallow reaches of the fault responding to changes in load imposed by sudden slip within the underlying seismogenic zone. In addition to coseismic slip and afterslip phenomena, however, pre-earthquake retardations in creep rates also have been observed. Onsets of significant, persistent decreases in creep rates have occurred at several sites 12 months or more before the times of moderate earthquakes. A 44-month retardation before the 1979 ML=5.9 Coyote Lake earthquake on the Calaveras fault was recorded at the Shore Road creepmeter site 10 km northwest of Hollister. Creep retardation on the San Andreas fault near San Juan Bautista has been evident in records from one creepmeter site for

  19. Investigating earthquake cycle vertical deformation recorded by GPS and regional tide gauge stations in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardy, S.; Konter, B.

    2013-12-01

    Geodetic and tide gauge measurements of vertical deformation record localized zones of uplift and subsidence that may document critical components of both long and short-period earthquake cycle deformation. In this study, we compare vertical tide gauge data from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) and vertical GPS data from the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) for 10 approximately co-located station pairs along coastal California from Point Reyes, CA to Ensenada, Mexico. To compare these two datasets, we first truncate both datasets so that they span a common time frame for all stations (2007 - 2012). PSMSL data are treated for both average global sea level rise (~1.8 mm/yr) and global isostatic adjustment. We then calculate a 2-month running mean for tide gauge and a 1-month running mean for GPS datasets to smooth out daily oceanographic or anthropologic disturbances but maintain the overall trend of each dataset. As major ocean-climate signals, such as El Nino, are considered regional features of the Pacific Ocean and likely common to all California tide gauge stations, we subtract a reference sea level record (San Francisco station) from all other stations to eliminate this signal. The GPS and tide gauge data show varying degrees of correlation spanning both 3-month and 4-year time-scales. We infer that the slope of vertical displacements are largely controlled by interseismic motions, however displacements from major earthquakes are evident and are required to explain some of the unique signatures in the tide gauge and GPS data. Specifically, we find that stations from both datasets in Southern California show an anomalous trend since the 2010 Baja California earthquake. To further investigate this trend and others, we compare these data to vertical motions estimated by a suite of 3-D viscoelastic earthquake cycle deformation models. Long-term tide gauge time series are well simulated by the models, but short-term time series are not as

  20. The foreshock sequence of large earthquakes: slow slip or cascade triggering?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, H.; Meng, L.

    2014-12-01

    Large earthquakes such as the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and the 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake are often preceded by foreshock sequences migrating toward the hypocenters of mainshocks. Understanding the underlying physical processes is crucial for imminent seismic hazard assessment. Some of these foreshock sequences are accompanied by repeating earthquakes, which are thought to be a manifestation of a large-scale background slow slip transient. The alternative interpretation is that the migrating seismicity is simply produced by the cascade triggering of mainshock-aftershock sequences following Omori's Law. In this case the repeating earthquakes are driven by the afterslip of the moderate to large foreshocks instead of an independent slow slip event. As an initial effort to discriminate these two hypotheses, we made a detailed analysis of the repeating earthquakes among the foreshock sequences of the 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake. We observed that some significant foreshocks (M >= 5.5) are followed by the rapid occurrences of local repeaters, suggesting the contribution of afterslip. However the repeaters are distributed in a wide area (~40*80 km), which are difficult to be driven by only a few moderate to large foreshocks. Furthermore, the estimated repeater-inferred aseismic moment during the foreshock period is at least 3.041e19 Nm (5*5 km grid), which is of the same order with the total amount of seismic moment of all foreshocks (2.251e19 Nm). This comparison again supports the slow-slip model since the ratio of post-seismic to coseismic moment is small in most earthquakes. To estimate the contributions of the transient slow slip and cascade triggering in the initiation of large earthquakes, we propose to systematically search and analyze repeating earthquakes in all foreshock sequences preceding large earthquakes. The next effort will be made to the long precursory phase of large interplate earthquakes such as the 1999 Mw 7.6 Izimit earthquake and the

  1. Combining Dynamic Earthquake and Tsunami Models With Case Studies Offshore Alaska and Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryan, Kenny

    Earthquakes and their corresponding tsunamis pose significant hazard to popu- lated regions around the world. Therefore, it is critically important that we seek to more fully understand the physics of the combined earthquake-tsunami system. One way to address this goal is through numerical modeling. The work discussed herein focuses on combining dynamic earthquake and tsunami models through the use of the Finite Element Method (FEM) and the Finite Difference Method (FDM). Dynamic earthquake models ac- count for the force that the entire fault system exerts on each individual element of the model for each time step, so that earthquake rupture takes a path based on the physics of the model; dynamic tsunami models can incorporate water height variations to produce water wave formation, propagation, and inundation. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to some important concepts and equations of elastodynamics and fluid dynamics as well as a brief example of the FEM. In Chapter 2, we investigate the 3-D effects of realistic fault dynamics on slip, free surface deformation, and resulting tsunami formation from an Mw 9 megathrust earthquake offshore Southern Alaska. Corresponding tsunami models, which use a FDM to solve linear long-wave equations, match sea floor deformation, in time, to the free surface deformation from the rupture simulations. Tsunamis generated in this region could have large adverse effects on Pacific coasts. In Chapter 3, we construct a 3-D dynamic rupture model of an earthquake on a reverse fault structure offshore Southern California to model the resulting tsunami, with a goal of elucidating the seismic and tsunami hazard in this area. The corresponding tsunami model uses final seafloor displacements from the rupture model as initial conditions to compute local propagation and inundation, resulting in large peak tsunami amplitudes northward and eastward due to site and path effects. In Chapter 4, we begin to evaluate 2-D earthquake source parameters

  2. A record of large earthquakes during the past two millennia on the southern Green Valley Fault, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, James J.; Baldwin, John N.; Turner, Robert; Sickler, Robert R.; Brown, Johnathan

    2013-01-01

    We document evidence for surface-rupturing earthquakes (events) at two trench sites on the southern Green Valley fault, California (SGVF). The 75-80-km long dextral SGVF creeps ~1-4 mm/yr. We identify stratigraphic horizons disrupted by upward-flowering shears and in-filled fissures unlikely to have formed from creep alone. The Mason Rd site exhibits four events from ~1013 CE to the Present. The Lopes Ranch site (LR, 12 km to the south) exhibits three events from 18 BCE to Present including the most recent event (MRE), 1610 ±52 yr CE (1σ) and a two-event interval (18 BCE-238 CE) isolated by a millennium of low deposition. Using Oxcal to model the timing of the 4-event earthquake sequence from radiocarbon data and the LR MRE yields a mean recurrence interval (RI or μ) of 199 ±82 yr (1σ) and ±35 yr (standard error of the mean), the first based on geologic data. The time since the most recent earthquake (open window since MRE) is 402 yr ±52 yr, well past μ~200 yr. The shape of the probability density function (pdf) of the average RI from Oxcal resembles a Brownian Passage Time (BPT) pdf (i.e., rather than normal) that permits rarer longer ruptures potentially involving the Berryessa and Hunting Creek sections of the northernmost GVF. The model coefficient of variation (cv, σ/μ) is 0.41, but a larger value (cv ~0.6) fits better when using BPT. A BPT pdf with μ of 250 yr and cv of 0.6 yields 30-yr rupture probabilities of 20-25% versus a Poisson probability of 11-17%.

  3. Response and recovery lessons from the 2010-2011 earthquake sequence in Canterbury, New Zealand

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pierepiekarz, Mark; Johnston, David; Berryman, Kelvin; Hare, John; Gomberg, Joan S.; Williams, Robert A.; Weaver, Craig S.

    2014-01-01

    The impacts and opportunities that result when low-probability moderate earthquakes strike an urban area similar to many throughout the US were vividly conveyed in a one-day workshop in which social and Earth scientists, public officials, engineers, and an emergency manager shared their experiences of the earthquake sequence that struck the city of Christchurch and surrounding Canterbury region of New Zealand in 2010-2011. Without question, the earthquake sequence has had unprecedented impacts in all spheres on New Zealand society, locally to nationally--10% of the country's population was directly impacted and losses total 8-10% of their GDP. The following paragraphs present a few lessons from Christchurch.

  4. Spatio-temporal Variations of Characteristic Repeating Earthquake Sequences along the Middle America Trench in Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominguez, L. A.; Taira, T.; Hjorleifsdottir, V.; Santoyo, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    Repeating earthquake sequences are sets of events that are thought to rupture the same area on the plate interface and thus provide nearly identical waveforms. We systematically analyzed seismic records from 2001 through 2014 to identify repeating earthquakes with highly correlated waveforms occurring along the subduction zone of the Cocos plate. Using the correlation coefficient (cc) and spectral coherency (coh) of the vertical components as selection criteria, we found a set of 214 sequences whose waveforms exceed cc≥95% and coh≥95%. Spatial clustering along the trench shows large variations in repeating earthquakes activity. Particularly, the rupture zone of the M8.1, 1985 earthquake shows an almost absence of characteristic repeating earthquakes, whereas the Guerrero Gap zone and the segment of the trench close to the Guerrero-Oaxaca border shows a significantly larger number of repeating earthquakes sequences. Furthermore, temporal variations associated to stress changes due to major shows episodes of unlocking and healing of the interface. Understanding the different components that control the location and recurrence time of characteristic repeating sequences is a key factor to pinpoint areas where large megathrust earthquakes may nucleate and consequently to improve the seismic hazard assessment.

  5. Modeling the foreshock sequence prior to the 2011, MW9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marsan, D.; Enescu, B.

    2012-06-01

    The 2011 MW9.0 Tohoku earthquake, Japan, was preceded by a 2 day-long foreshock sequence, initiated by a MW7.3 earthquake. We analyze this foreshock sequence, with the aim of detecting possible aseismic deformation transients that could have driven its evolution. Continuous broad-band recordings at F-net stations are processed to identify as exhaustive a set of mJMA > 1.2 earthquakes as possible. We moreover directly quantify with these recordings the changes in detection level associated with changes in seismic or environmental noise. This earthquake data set is then modeled, to show that the whole sequence can be readily explained without the need to invoke aseismic transients. The observation of a 3-hour long low-frequency noise increase, concurrent with an apparent migration of seismicity toward the epicenter of the impending MW9.0 mega-thrust earthquake, however suggests that some premonitory slip could have played a role in loading the asperity which failure initiated the MW9.0 shock. We thus propose that this aseismic slip, if it really existed, had only a minor role in triggering and southward displacing the foreshock sequence, as compared to earthquake interaction mechanisms that allow earthquakes to trigger one another.

  6. Potential for Large Transpressional Earthquakes along the Santa Cruz-Catalina Ridge, California Continental Borderland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Legg, M.; Kohler, M. D.; Weeraratne, D. S.; Castillo, C. M.

    2015-12-01

    Transpressional fault systems comprise networks of high-angle strike-slip and more gently-dipping oblique-slip faults. Large oblique-slip earthquakes may involve complex ruptures of multiple faults with both strike-slip and dip-slip. Geophysical data including high-resolution multibeam bathymetry maps, multichannel seismic reflection (MCS) profiles, and relocated seismicity catalogs enable detailed mapping of the 3-D structure of seismogenic fault systems offshore in the California Continental Borderland. Seafloor morphology along the San Clemente fault system displays numerous features associated with active strike-slip faulting including scarps, linear ridges and valleys, and offset channels. Detailed maps of the seafloor faulting have been produced along more than 400 km of the fault zone. Interpretation of fault geometry has been extended to shallow crustal depths using 2-D MCS profiles and to seismogenic depths using catalogs of relocated southern California seismicity. We examine the 3-D fault character along the transpressional Santa Cruz-Catalina Ridge (SCCR) section of the fault system to investigate the potential for large earthquakes involving multi-fault ruptures. The 1981 Santa Barbara Island (M6.0) earthquake was a right-slip event on a vertical fault zone along the northeast flank of the SCCR. Aftershock hypocenters define at least three sub-parallel high-angle fault surfaces that lie beneath a hillside valley. Mainshock rupture for this moderate earthquake appears to have been bilateral, initiating at a small discontinuity in the fault geometry (~5-km pressure ridge) near Kidney Bank. The rupture terminated to the southeast at a significant releasing step-over or bend and to the northeast within a small (~10-km) restraining bend. An aftershock cluster occurred beyond the southeast asperity along the East San Clemente fault. Active transpression is manifest by reverse-slip earthquakes located in the region adjacent to the principal displacement zone

  7. Stress/strain changes and triggered seismicity following the MW7.3 Landers, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, J.

    1996-01-01

    Calculations of dynamic stresses and strains, constrained by broadband seismograms, are used to investigate their role in generating the remotely triggered seismicity that followed the June 28, 1992, MW7.3 Landers, California earthquake. I compare straingrams and dynamic Coulomb failure functions calculated for the Landers earthquake at sites that did experience triggered seismicity with those at sites that did not. Bounds on triggering thresholds are obtained from analysis of dynamic strain spectra calculated for the Landers and MW,6.1 Joshua Tree, California, earthquakes at various sites, combined with results of static strain investigations by others. I interpret three principal results of this study with those of a companion study by Gomberg and Davis [this issue]. First, the dynamic elastic stress changes themselves cannot explain the spatial distribution of triggered seismicity, particularly the lack of triggered activity along the San Andreas fault system. In addition to the requirement to exceed a Coulomb failure stress level, this result implies the need to invoke and satisfy the requirements of appropriate slip instability theory. Second, results of this study are consistent with the existence of frequency- or rate-dependent stress/strain triggering thresholds, inferred from the companion study and interpreted in terms of earthquake initiation involving a competition of processes, one promoting failure and the other inhibiting it. Such competition is also part of relevant instability theories. Third, the triggering threshold must vary from site to site, suggesting that the potential for triggering strongly depends on site characteristics and response. The lack of triggering along the San Andreas fault system may be correlated with the advanced maturity of its fault gouge zone; the strains from the Landers earthquake were either insufficient to exceed its larger critical slip distance or some other critical failure parameter; or the faults failed stably as

  8. GPS Time Series Analysis of Southern California Associated with the 2010 M7.2 El Mayor/Cucapah Earthquake

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Granat, Robert; Donnellan, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    The Magnitude 7.2 El-Mayor/Cucapah earthquake the occurred in Mexico on April 4, 2012 was well instrumented with continuous GPS stations in California. Large Offsets were observed at the GPS stations as a result of deformation from the earthquake providing information about the co-seismic fault slip as well as fault slip from large aftershocks. Information can also be obtained from the position time series at each station.

  9. Fluid‐driven seismicity response of the Rinconada fault near Paso Robles, California, to the 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

    2012-01-01

    The 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon, California, earthquake caused significant damage in the city of Paso Robles and a persistent cluster of aftershocks close to Paso Robles near the Rinconada fault. Given the importance of secondary aftershock triggering in sequences of large events, a concern is whether this cluster of events could trigger another damaging earthquake near Paso Robles. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is fit to the Rinconada seismicity, and multiple realizations indicate a 0.36% probability of at least one M≥6.0 earthquake during the next 30 years. However, this probability estimate is only as good as the projection into the future of the ETAS model. There is evidence that the seismicity may be influenced by fluid pressure changes, which cannot be forecasted using ETAS. The strongest evidence for fluids is the delay between the San Simeon mainshock and a high rate of seismicity in mid to late 2004. This delay can be explained as having been caused by a pore pressure decrease due to an undrained response to the coseismic dilatation, followed by increased pore pressure during the return to equilibrium. Seismicity migration along the fault also suggests fluid involvement, although the migration is too slow to be consistent with pore pressure diffusion. All other evidence, including focal mechanisms and b‐value, is consistent with tectonic earthquakes. This suggests a model where the role of fluid pressure changes is limited to the first seven months, while the fluid pressure equilibrates. The ETAS modeling adequately fits the events after July 2004 when the pore pressure stabilizes. The ETAS models imply that while the probability of a damaging earthquake on the Rinconada fault has approximately doubled due to the San Simeon earthquake, the absolute probability remains low.

  10. Archiving and Distributing Seismic Data at the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Appel, V. L.

    2002-12-01

    The Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC) archives and provides public access to earthquake parametric and waveform data gathered by the Southern California Seismic Network and since January 1, 2001, the TriNet seismic network, southern California's earthquake monitoring network. The parametric data in the archive includes earthquake locations, magnitudes, moment-tensor solutions and phase picks. The SCEDC waveform archive prior to TriNet consists primarily of short-period, 100-samples-per-second waveforms from the SCSN. The addition of the TriNet array added continuous recordings of 155 broadband stations (20 samples per second or less), and triggered seismograms from 200 accelerometers and 200 short-period instruments. Since the Data Center and TriNet use the same Oracle database system, new earthquake data are available to the seismological community in near real-time. Primary access to the database and waveforms is through the Seismogram Transfer Program (STP) interface. The interface enables users to search the database for earthquake information, phase picks, and continuous and triggered waveform data. Output is available in SAC, miniSEED, and other formats. Both the raw counts format (V0) and the gain-corrected format (V1) of COSMOS (Consortium of Organizations for Strong-Motion Observation Systems) are now supported by STP. EQQuest is an interface to prepackaged waveform data sets for select earthquakes in Southern California stored at the SCEDC. Waveform data for large-magnitude events have been prepared and new data sets will be available for download in near real-time following major events. The parametric data from 1981 to present has been loaded into the Oracle 9.2.0.1 database system and the waveforms for that time period have been converted to mSEED format and are accessible through the STP interface. The DISC optical-disk system (the "jukebox") that currently serves as the mass-storage for the SCEDC is in the process of being replaced

  11. Water level and strain changes preceding and following the August 4, 1985 Kettleman Hills, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roeloffs, E.; Quilty, E.

    1997-01-01

    Two of the four wells monitored near Parkfield, California, during 1985 showed water level rises beginning three days before the M4 6.1 Kettleman Hills earthquake. In one of these wells, the 3.0 cm rise was nearly unique in five years of water level data. However, in the other well, which showed a 3.8 cm rise, many other changes of comparable size have been observed. Both wells that did not display pre-earthquake rises tap partially confined aquifers that cannot sustain pressure changes due to tectonic strain having periods longer than several days. We evaluate the effect of partial aquifer confinement on the ability of these four wells to display water level changes in response to aquifer strain. Although the vertical hydraulic diffusivities cannot be determined uniquely, we can find a value of diffusivity for each site that is consistent with the site's tidal and barometric responses as well as with the rate of partial recovery of the coseismic water level drops. Furthermore, the diffusivity for one well is high enough to explain why the preseismic rise could not have been detected there. For the fourth well, the diffusivity is high enough to have reduced the size of the preseismic signal as much as 50%, although it should still have been detectable. Imperfect confinement cannot explain the persistent water level changes in the two partially confined aquifers, but it does show that they were not due to volume strain. The pre-earthquake water level rises may have been precursors to the Kettleman Hills earthquake. If so, they probably were not caused by accelerating slip over the part of the fault plane that ruptured in that earthquake because they are of opposite sign to the observed coseismic water level drops.

  12. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walter, Edward J.

    1977-01-01

    Presents an analysis of the causes of earthquakes. Topics discussed include (1) geological and seismological factors that determine the effect of a particular earthquake on a given structure; (2) description of some large earthquakes such as the San Francisco quake; and (3) prediction of earthquakes. (HM)

  13. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pakiser, Louis C.

    One of a series of general interest publications on science topics, the booklet provides those interested in earthquakes with an introduction to the subject. Following a section presenting an historical look at the world's major earthquakes, the booklet discusses earthquake-prone geographic areas, the nature and workings of earthquakes, earthquake…

  14. The 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquake: A test of the stress shadow hypothesis?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.A.; Simpson, R.W.

    2002-01-01

    We test the stress shadow hypothesis for large earthquake interactions by examining the relationship between two large earthquakes that occurred in the Mojave Desert of southern California, the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers and 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector Mine earthquakes. We want to determine if the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake occurred at a location where the Coulomb stress was increased (earthquake advance, stress trigger) or decreased (earthquake delay, stress shadow) by the previous large earthquake. Using four models of the Landers rupture and a range of possible hypocentral planes for the Hector Mine earthquake, we discover that most scenarios yield a Landers-induced relaxation (stress shadow) on the Hector Mine hypocentral plane. Although this result would seem to weigh against the stress shadow hypothesis, the results become considerably more uncertain when the effects of a nearby Landers aftershock, the 1992 ML 5.4 Pisgah earthquake, are taken into account. We calculate the combined static Coulomb stress changes due to the Landers and Pisgah earthquakes to range from -0.3 to +0.3 MPa (- 3 to +3 bars) at the possible Hector Mine hypocenters, depending on choice of rupture model and hypocenter. These varied results imply that the Hector Mine earthquake does not provide a good test of the stress shadow hypothesis for large earthquake interactions. We use a simple approach, that of static dislocations in an elastic half-space, yet we still obtain a wide range of both negative and positive Coulomb stress changes. Our findings serve as a caution that more complex models purporting to explain the triggering or shadowing relationship between the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes need to also consider the parametric and geometric uncertainties raised here.

  15. Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for earthquake hazard assessment.

    PubMed

    Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian

    2009-11-01

    One of the most powerful features of plate tectonics is that the known plate motions give insight into both the locations and average recurrence interval of future large earthquakes on plate boundaries. Plate tectonics gives no insight, however, into where and when earthquakes will occur within plates, because the interiors of ideal plates should not deform. As a result, within plate interiors, assessments of earthquake hazards rely heavily on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation that will cause future large earthquakes. Here, however, we show that many of these recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of large earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago. We present a simple model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded. Aftershock sequences within the slowly deforming continents are predicted to be significantly longer than the decade typically observed at rapidly loaded plate boundaries. These predictions are in accord with observations. So the common practice of treating continental earthquakes as steady-state seismicity overestimates the hazard in presently active areas and underestimates it elsewhere. PMID:19890328

  16. Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for earthquake hazard assessment.

    PubMed

    Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian

    2009-11-01

    One of the most powerful features of plate tectonics is that the known plate motions give insight into both the locations and average recurrence interval of future large earthquakes on plate boundaries. Plate tectonics gives no insight, however, into where and when earthquakes will occur within plates, because the interiors of ideal plates should not deform. As a result, within plate interiors, assessments of earthquake hazards rely heavily on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation that will cause future large earthquakes. Here, however, we show that many of these recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of large earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago. We present a simple model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded. Aftershock sequences within the slowly deforming continents are predicted to be significantly longer than the decade typically observed at rapidly loaded plate boundaries. These predictions are in accord with observations. So the common practice of treating continental earthquakes as steady-state seismicity overestimates the hazard in presently active areas and underestimates it elsewhere.

  17. Calculation of earthquake rupture histories using a hybrid global search algorithm: Application to the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hartzell, S.; Liu, P.

    1996-01-01

    A method is presented for the simultaneous calculation of slip amplitudes and rupture times for a finite fault using a hybrid global search algorithm. The method we use combines simulated annealing with the downhill simplex method to produce a more efficient search algorithm then either of the two constituent parts. This formulation has advantages over traditional iterative or linearized approaches to the problem because it is able to escape local minima in its search through model space for the global optimum. We apply this global search method to the calculation of the rupture history for the Landers, California, earthquake. The rupture is modeled using three separate finite-fault planes to represent the three main fault segments that failed during this earthquake. Both the slip amplitude and the time of slip are calculated for a grid work of subfaults. The data used consist of digital, teleseismic P and SH body waves. Long-period, broadband, and short-period records are utilized to obtain a wideband characterization of the source. The results of the global search inversion are compared with a more traditional linear-least-squares inversion for only slip amplitudes. We use a multi-time-window linear analysis to relax the constraints on rupture time and rise time in the least-squares inversion. Both inversions produce similar slip distributions, although the linear-least-squares solution has a 10% larger moment (7.3 ?? 1026 dyne-cm compared with 6.6 ?? 1026 dyne-cm). Both inversions fit the data equally well and point out the importance of (1) using a parameterization with sufficient spatial and temporal flexibility to encompass likely complexities in the rupture process, (2) including suitable physically based constraints on the inversion to reduce instabilities in the solution, and (3) focusing on those robust rupture characteristics that rise above the details of the parameterization and data set.

  18. Numerical Simulation of Stress evolution and earthquake sequence of the Tibetan Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Peiyu; Hu, Caibo; Shi, Yaolin

    2015-04-01

    The India-Eurasia's collision produces N-S compression and results in large thrust fault in the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. Differential eastern flow of the lower crust of the plateau leads to large strike-slip faults and normal faults within the plateau. From 1904 to 2014, more than 30 earthquakes of Mw > 6.5 occurred sequentially in this distinctive tectonic environment. How did the stresses evolve during the last 110 years, how did the earthquakes interact with each other? Can this knowledge help us to forecast the future seismic hazards? In this essay, we tried to simulate the evolution of the stress field and the earthquake sequence in the Tibetan plateau within the last 110 years with a 2-D finite element model. Given an initial state of stress, the boundary condition was constrained by the present-day GPS observation, which was assumed as a constant rate during the 110 years. We calculated stress evolution year by year, and earthquake would occur if stress exceed the crustal strength. Stress changes due to each large earthquake in the sequence was calculated and contributed to the stress evolution. A key issue is the choice of initial stress state of the modeling, which is actually unknown. Usually, in the study of earthquake triggering, people assume the initial stress is zero, and only calculate the stress changes by large earthquakes - the Coulomb failure stress changes (Δ CFS). To some extent, this simplified method is a powerful tool because it can reveal which fault or which part of a fault becomes more risky or safer relatively. Nonetheless, it has not utilized all information available to us. The earthquake sequence reveals, though far from complete, some information about the stress state in the region. If the entire region is close to a self-organized critical or subcritical state, earthquake stress drop provides an estimate of lower limit of initial state. For locations no earthquakes occurred during the period, initial stress has to be

  19. Relative Contributions of Geothermal Pumping and Long-Term Earthquake Rate to Seismicity at California Geothermal Fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiser, D. A.; Jackson, D. D.

    2015-12-01

    In a tectonically active area, a definitive discrimination between geothermally-induced and tectonic earthquakes is difficult to achieve. We focus our study on California's 11 major geothermal fields: Amedee, Brawley, Casa Diablo, Coso, East Mesa, The Geysers, Heber, Litchfield, Salton Sea, Susanville, and Wendel. The Geysers geothermal field is the world's largest geothermal energy producer. California's Department of Oil Gas and Geothermal Resources provides field-wide monthly injection and production volumes for each of these sites, which allows us to study the relationship between geothermal pumping activities and seismicity. Since many of the geothermal fields began injecting and producing before nearby seismic stations were installed, we use smoothed seismicity since 1932 from the ANSS catalog as a proxy for tectonic earthquake rate. We examine both geothermal pumping and long-term earthquake rate as factors that may control earthquake rate. Rather than focusing only on the largest earthquake, which is essentially a random occurrence in time, we examine how M≥4 earthquake rate density (probability per unit area, time, and magnitude) varies for each field. We estimate relative contributions to the observed earthquake rate of M≥4 from both a long-term earthquake rate (Kagan and Jackson, 2010) and pumping activity. For each geothermal field, respective earthquake catalogs (NCEDC and SCSN) are complete above at least M3 during the test period (which we tailor to each site). We test the hypothesis that the observed earthquake rate at a geothermal site during the test period is a linear combination of the long-term seismicity and pumping rates. We use a grid search to determine the confidence interval of the weighting parameters.

  20. Earthquake source mechanisms and transform fault tectonics in the Gulf of California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goff, John A.; Bergman, Eric A.; Solomon, Sean C.

    1987-01-01

    The source parameters of 19 large earthquakes in the Gulf of California were determined from inversions of long-period P and SH waveforms. The goal was to understand the recent slip history of this dominantly transform boundary between the Pacific and North American plates as well as the effect on earthquake characteristics of the transition from young oceanic to continental lithosphere. For the better recorded transform events, the fault strike is resolved to + or - 4 deg at 90 percent confidence. The slip vectors thus provide important constraints on the direction of relative plate motion. Most centroid depths are poorly resolved because of tradeoffs between depth and source time function. On the basis of waveform modeling, historical seismicity, and other factors, it is appropriate to divide the Gulf into three distinct zones. The difference in seismic character among the three zones is likely the result of differing levels of maturity of the processes of rifting, generation of oceanic crust, and formation of stable oceanic transform faults. The mechanism of an earthquake on the Tres Marias Escarpment is characterized by thrust faulting and likely indicates the direction of relative motion between the Rivera and North American plates. This mechanism requires revision in plate velocity models which predict strike slip motion at this location.

  1. Spatial-temporal variation of low-frequency earthquake bursts near Parkfield, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wu, Chunquan; Guyer, Robert; Shelly, David R.; Trugman, D.; Frank, William; Gomberg, Joan S.; Johnson, P.

    2015-01-01

    Tectonic tremor (TT) and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) have been found in the deeper crust of various tectonic environments globally in the last decade. The spatial-temporal behaviour of LFEs provides insight into deep fault zone processes. In this study, we examine recurrence times from a 12-yr catalogue of 88 LFE families with ∼730 000 LFEs in the vicinity of the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) in central California. We apply an automatic burst detection algorithm to the LFE recurrence times to identify the clustering behaviour of LFEs (LFE bursts) in each family. We find that the burst behaviours in the northern and southern LFE groups differ. Generally, the northern group has longer burst duration but fewer LFEs per burst, while the southern group has shorter burst duration but more LFEs per burst. The southern group LFE bursts are generally more correlated than the northern group, suggesting more coherent deep fault slip and relatively simpler deep fault structure beneath the locked section of SAF. We also found that the 2004 Parkfield earthquake clearly increased the number of LFEs per burst and average burst duration for both the northern and the southern groups, with a relatively larger effect on the northern group. This could be due to the weakness of northern part of the fault, or the northwesterly rupture direction of the Parkfield earthquake.

  2. Tsunami inundation at Crescent City, California generated by earthquakes along the Cascadia Subduction Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uslu, Burak; Borrero, José C.; Dengler, Lori A.; Synolakis, Costas E.

    2007-10-01

    We model tsunami inundation and runup heights in Crescent City, California triggered by possible earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). The CSZ is believed capable of producing great earthquakes with magnitudes of M w ~ 9.0 or greater. We simulate plausible CSZ rupture scenarios and calculate inundation using MOST. We benchmark our CSZ inundation projections against mapped flooded areas and tide gauge data from the 1964 tsunami, which destroyed 29 city blocks, and also from the damaging 15 November 2006 Kuril Islands tsunami. Results suggest that inundation from CSZ tsunamis could extend over 3 km inland, twice as far as the limits of the 1964 inundation. Crescent City is most vulnerable to slip on the Gorda segment of the CSZ. Rupture of the northern or Juan De Fuca segment produces lower water heights than the 1964 event. At Crescent City, CSZ ruptures produce a leading elevation wave that arrives only minutes after the earthquake. Educational and self-evacuation are essential to save lives.

  3. The Salton Seismic Imaging Project: Investigating Earthquake Hazards in the Salton Trough, Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuis, G. S.; Goldman, M.; Sickler, R. R.; Catchings, R. D.; Rymer, M. J.; Rose, E. J.; Murphy, J. M.; Butcher, L. A.; Cotton, J. A.; Criley, C. J.; Croker, D. S.; Emmons, I.; Ferguson, A. J.; Gardner, M. A.; Jensen, E. G.; McClearn, R.; Loughran, C. L.; Slayday-Criley, C. J.; Svitek, J. F.; Hole, J. A.; Stock, J. M.; Skinner, S. M.; Driscoll, N. W.; Harding, A. J.; Babcock, J. M.; Kent, G.; Kell, A. M.; Harder, S. H.

    2011-12-01

    The Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) is a collaborative effort between academia and the U.S. Geological Survey to provide detailed, subsurface 3-D images of the Salton Trough of southern California and northern Mexico. From both active- and passive-source seismic data that were acquired both onshore and offshore (Salton Sea), the resulting images will provide insights into earthquake hazards, rift processes, and rift-transform interaction at the southern end of the San Andreas Fault system. The southernmost San Andreas Fault (SAF) is considered to be at high-risk of producing a large damaging earthquake, yet the structure of this and other regional faults and that of adjacent sedimentary basins is not currently well understood. Seismic data were acquired from 2 to 18 March 2011. One hundred and twenty-six borehole explosions (10-1400 kg yield) were detonated along seven profiles in the Salton Trough region, extending from area of Palm Springs, California, to the southwestern tip of Arizona. Airguns (1500 and 3500 cc) were fired along two profiles in the Salton Sea and at points in a 2-D array in the southern Salton Sea. Approximately 2800 seismometers were deployed at over 4200 locations throughout the Salton Trough region, and 48 ocean-bottom seismometers were deployed at 78 locations beneath the Salton Sea. Many of the onshore explosions were energetic enough to be recorded and located by the Southern California Seismograph Network. The geometry of the SAF has important implications for energy radiation in the next major rupture. Prior potential field, seismicity, and InSAR data indicate that the SAF may dip moderately to the northeast from the Salton Sea to Cajon Pass in the Transverse Ranges. Much of SSIP was designed to test models of this geometry.

  4. The aftershock sequence of the 2015 April 25 Gorkha-Nepal earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adhikari, L. B.; Gautam, U. P.; Koirala, B. P.; Bhattarai, M.; Kandel, T.; Gupta, R. M.; Timsina, C.; Maharjan, N.; Maharjan, K.; Dahal, T.; Hoste-Colomer, R.; Cano, Y.; Dandine, M.; Guilhem, A.; Merrer, S.; Roudil, P.; Bollinger, L.

    2015-12-01

    The M 7.8 2015 April 25 Gorkha earthquake devastated the mountainous southern rim of the High Himalayan range in central Nepal. The main shock was followed by 553 earthquakes of local magnitude greater than 4.0 within the first 45 days. In this study, we present and qualify the bulletin of the permanent National Seismological Centre network to determine the spatio-temporal distribution of the aftershocks. The Gorkha sequence defines a ˜140-km-long ESE trending structure, parallel to the mountain range, abutting on the presumed extension of the rupture plane of the 1934 M 8.4 earthquake. In addition, we observe a second seismicity belt located southward, under the Kathmandu basin and in the northern part of the Mahabarat range. Many aftershocks of the Gorkha earthquake sequence have been felt by the 3 millions inhabitants of the Kathmandu valley.

  5. Satellite IR Thermal Measurements Prior to the September 2004 Earthquakes in Central California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ouzounov, D.; Logan, T.; Taylor, Patrick

    2004-01-01

    We present and discuss observed variations in thermal transients and radiation fields prior to the earthquakes of September 18 near Bodie (M5.5) and September 28,2004 near Parkfield(M6.0) in California. Previous analysis of earthquake events have indicated the presence of a thermal anomaly, where temperatures increased or did not return to its usual nighttime value. The procedures used in our work is to analyze weather satellite data taken at night and to record the general condition where the ground cools after sunset. Two days before the Bodie earthquake lower temperature radiation was observed by the NOAA/AVHRR satellite. This occurred when the entire region was relatively cloud-free. IR land surface nighttime temperature from the MODIS instrument rose to +4 C in a 100 km radius around the Bodie epicenter. The thermal transient field recorded by MODIS in the vicinity of Parkfield, also with a cloud free environment, was around +l C and it is significantly smaller than the Parkfield epicenter, however, for that period showed a steady increase 4 days prior to the earthquake and a significant drop of the night before the quake. Geosynchronous weather satellite thermal IR measurements taken every half hour from sunset to dawn, were also recorded for 10 days prior to the Parkfield event and 5 days after as well as the day of the quake. To establish a baseline we also obtained GOES data for the same Julian sets were then used to systematically observe and record any thermal anomaly prior to the events that deviated from the baseline. Our recent results support the hypothesis of a possible relationship between an thermodynamic processes produced by increasing tectonic stress in the Earth's crust and a subsequent electro-chemical interaction between this crust and the atmosphere/ionosphere.

  6. Earthquake geology of the northern San Andreas Fault near Point Arena, California

    SciTech Connect

    Prentice, C.S.

    1989-01-01

    Excavations into a Holocene alluvial fan provided exposures of a record of prehistoric earthquakes near Point Arena, California. At least five earthquakes were recognized in the section. All of these occurred since the deposition of a unit that is approximately 2000 years old. Radiocarbon dating allows constraints to be placed on the dates of these earthquakes. A buried Holocene (2356-2709 years old) channel has been offset a maximum of 64 {plus minus} 2 meters. This implies a maximum slip rate of 25.5 {plus minus} 2.5 mm/yr. These data suggest that the average recurrence interval for great earthquakes on this segment of the San Andreas fault is long - between about 200 and 400 years. Offset marine terrace risers near Point Arena and an offset landslide near Fort Ross provide estimates of the average slip rate since Late Pleistocene time. Near Fort Ross, an offset landslide implies a slip rate of less than 39 mm/yr. Correlation and age estimates of two marine terrace risers across the San Andreas fault near Point Arena suggest slip rates of about 18-19 mm/yr since Late Pleistocene time. Tentative correlation of the Pliocene Ohlson Ranch Formation in northwestern Sonoma County with deposits 50 km to the northwest near Point Arean, provides piercing points to use in calculation of a Pliocene slip rate for the northern San Andreas fault. A fission-track age 3.3 {plus minus} 0.8 Ma was determined for zicrons separated from a tuff collected from the Ohlson Ranch Formation. The geomorphology of the region, especially of the two major river drainages, supports the proposed 50 km Pliocene offset. This implies a Pliocene slip rate of at least 12-20 mm/yr. These rates for different time periods imply that much of the Pacific-North American plate motion must be accommodated on other structures at this latitude.

  7. Transient stress-coupling between the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Masterlark, Timothy; Wang, H.F.

    2002-01-01

    A three-dimensiona l finite-element model (FEM) of the Mojave block region in southern California is constructed to investigate transient stress-coupling between the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes. The FEM simulates a poroelastic upper-crust layer coupled to a viscoelastic lower-crust layer, which is decoupled from the upper mantle. FEM predictions of the transient mechanical behavior of the crust are constrained by global positioning system (GPS) data, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images, fluid-pressure data from water wells, and the dislocation source of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake. Two time-dependent parameters, hydraulic diffusivity of the upper crust and viscosity of the lower crust, are calibrated to 10-2 m2.sec-1 and 5 ?? 1018 Pa.sec respectively. The hydraulic diffusivity is relatively insensitive to heterogeneous fault-zone permeability specifications and fluid-flow boundary conditions along the elastic free-surface at the top of the problem domain. The calibrated FEM is used to predict the evolution of Coulomb stress during the interval separating the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes. The predicted change in Coulomb stress near the hypocenter of the Hector Mine earthquake increases from 0.02 to 0.05 MPa during the 7-yr interval separating the two events. This increase is primarily attributed to the recovery of decreased excess fluid pressure from the 1992 Landers coseismic (undrained) strain field. Coulomb stress predictions are insensitive to small variations of fault-plane dip and hypocentral depth estimations of the Hector Mine rupture.

  8. Source processes of industrially-induced earthquakes at the Geysers geothermal area, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ross, A.; Foulger, G.R.; Julian, B.R.

    1999-01-01

    Microearthquake activity at The Geysers geothermal area, California, mirrors the steam production rate, suggesting that the earthquakes are industrially induced. A 15-station network of digital, three-component seismic stations was operated for one month in 1991, and 3,900 earthquakes were recorded. Highly-accurate moment tensors were derived for 30 of the best recorded earthquakes by tracing rays through tomographically derived 3-D VP and VP / VS structures, and inverting P-and S-wave polarities and amplitude ratios. The orientations of the P-and T-axes are very scattered, suggesting that there is no strong, systematic deviatoric stress field in the reservoir, which could explain why the earthquakes are not large. Most of the events had significant non-double-couple (non-DC) components in their source mechanisms with volumetric components up to ???30% of the total moment. Explosive and implosive sources were observed in approximately equal numbers, and must be caused by cavity creation (or expansion) and collapse. It is likely that there is a causal relationship between these processes and fluid reinjection and steam withdrawal. Compensated linear vector dipole (CLVD) components were up to 100% of the deviatoric component. Combinations of opening cracks and shear faults cannot explain all the observations, and rapid fluid flow may also be involved. The pattern of non-DC failure at The Geysers contrasts with that of the Hengill-Grensdalur area in Iceland, a largely unexploited water-dominated field in an extensional stress regime. These differences are poorly understood but may be linked to the contrasting regional stress regimes and the industrial exploitation at The Geysers.

  9. Crustal velocities near Coalinga, California, modeled from a combined earthquake/explosion refraction profile

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Macgregor-Scott, N.; Walter, A.

    1988-01-01

    Crustal velocity structure for the region near Coalinga, California, has been derived from both earthquake and explosion seismic phase data recorded along a NW-SE seismic-refraction profile on the western flank of the Great Valley east of the Diablo Range. Comparison of the two data sets reveals P-wave phases in common which can be correlated with changes in the velocity structure below the earthquake hypocenters. In addition, the earthquake records reveal secondary phases at station ranges of less than 20 km that could be the result of S- to P-wave conversions at velocity interfaces above the earthquake hypocenters. Two-dimensional ray-trace modeling of the P-wave travel times resulted in a P-wave velocity model for the western flank of the Great Valley comprised of: 1) a 7- to 9-km thick section of sedimentary strata with velocities similar to those found elsewhere in the Great Valley (1.6 to 5.2 km s-1); 2) a middle crust extending to about 14 km depth with velocities comparable to those reported for the Franciscan assemblage in the Diablo Range (5.6 to 5.9 km s-1); and 3) a 13- to 14-km thick lower crust with velocities similar to those reported beneath the Diablo Range and the Great Valley (6.5 to 7.30 km s-1). This lower crust may have been derived from subducted oceanic crust that was thickened by accretionary underplating or crustal shortening. -Authors

  10. Three-dimensional compressional wavespeed model, earthquake relocations, and focal mechanisms for the Parkfield, California, region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thurber, C.; Zhang, H.; Waldhauser, F.; Hardebeck, J.; Michael, A.; Eberhart-Phillips, D.

    2006-01-01

    We present a new three-dimensional (3D) compressional vvavespeed (V p) model for the Parkfield region, taking advantage of the recent seismicity associated with the 2003 San Simeon and 2004 Parkfield earthquake sequences to provide increased model resolution compared to the work of Eberhart-Phillips and Michael (1993) (EPM93). Taking the EPM93 3D model as our starting model, we invert the arrival-time data from about 2100 earthquakes and 250 shots recorded on both permanent network and temporary stations in a region 130 km northeast-southwest by 120 km northwest-southeast. We include catalog picks and cross-correlation and catalog differential times in the inversion, using the double-difference tomography method of Zhang and Thurber (2003). The principal Vp features reported by EPM93 and Michelini and McEvilly (1991) are recovered, but with locally improved resolution along the San Andreas Fault (SAF) and near the active-source profiles. We image the previously identified strong wavespeed contrast (faster on the southwest side) across most of the length of the SAF, and we also improve the image of a high Vp body on the northeast side of the fault reported by EPM93. This narrow body is at about 5- to 12-km depth and extends approximately from the locked section of the SAP to the town of Parkfield. The footwall of the thrust fault responsible for the 1983 Coalinga earthquake is imaged as a northeast-dipping high wavespeed body. In between, relatively low wavespeeds (<5 km/sec) extend to as much as 10-km depth. We use this model to derive absolute locations for about 16,000 earthquakes from 1966 to 2005 and high-precision double-difference locations for 9,000 earthquakes from 1984 to 2005, and also to determine focal mechanisms for 446 earthquakes. These earthquake locations and mechanisms show that the seismogenic fault is a simple planar structure. The aftershock sequence of the 2004 mainshock concentrates into the same structures defined by the pre-2004 seismicity

  11. Persistent water level changes in a well near Parkfield, California, due to local and distant earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roeloffs, Evelyn A.

    1998-01-01

    Coseismic water level rises in the 30-m deep Bourdieu Valley (BV) well near Parkfield, California, have occurred in response to three local and five distant earthquakes. Coseismic changes in static strain cannot explain these water level rises because (1) the well is insensitive to strain at tidal periods; (2) for the distant earthquakes, the expected coseismic static strain is extremely small; and (3) the water level response is of the incorrect sign for the local earthquakes. These water level changes must therefore be caused by seismic waves, but unlike seismic water level oscillations, they are monotonic, persist for days or weeks, and seem to be caused by waves with periods of several seconds rather than long-period surface waves. Other investigators have reported a similar phenomenon in Japan. Certain wells consistently exhibit this type of coseismic water level change, which is always in the same direction, regardless of the earthquake's azimuth or focal mechanism, and approximately proportional to the inverse square of hypocentral distance. To date, the coseismic water level rises in the B V well have never exceeded the seasonal water level maximum, although their sizes are relatively well correlated with earthquake magnitude and distance. The frequency independence of the well's response to barometric pressure in the frequency band 0.1 to 0.7 cpd implies that the aquifer is fairly well confined. High aquifer compressibility, probably due to a gas phase in the pore space, is the most likely reason why the well does not respond to Earth tides. The phase and amplitude relationships between the seasonal water level and precipitation cycles constrain the horizontal hydraulic diffusivity to within a factor of 4.5, bounding hypothetical earthquake-induced changes in aquifer hydraulic properties. Moreover, changes of hydraulic conductivity and/or diffusivity throughout the aquifer would not be expected to change the water level in the same direction at every time

  12. Rates and patterns of surface deformation from laser scanning following the South Napa earthquake, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeLong, Stephen B.; Lienkaemper, James J.; Pickering, Alexandra J; Avdievitch, Nikita N.

    2015-01-01

    The A.D. 2014 M6.0 South Napa earthquake, despite its moderate magnitude, caused significant damage to the Napa Valley in northern California (USA). Surface rupture occurred along several mapped and unmapped faults. Field observations following the earthquake indicated that the magnitude of postseismic surface slip was likely to approach or exceed the maximum coseismic surface slip and as such presented ongoing hazard to infrastructure. Using a laser scanner, we monitored postseismic deformation in three dimensions through time along 0.5 km of the main surface rupture. A key component of this study is the demonstration of proper alignment of repeat surveys using point cloud–based methods that minimize error imposed by both local survey errors and global navigation satellite system georeferencing errors. Using solid modeling of natural and cultural features, we quantify dextral postseismic displacement at several hundred points near the main fault trace. We also quantify total dextral displacement of initially straight cultural features. Total dextral displacement from both coseismic displacement and the first 2.5 d of postseismic displacement ranges from 0.22 to 0.29 m. This range increased to 0.33–0.42 m at 59 d post-earthquake. Furthermore, we estimate up to 0.15 m of vertical deformation during the first 2.5 d post-earthquake, which then increased by ∼0.02 m at 59 d post-earthquake. This vertical deformation is not expressed as a distinct step or scarp at the fault trace but rather as a broad up-to-the-west zone of increasing elevation change spanning the fault trace over several tens of meters, challenging common notions about fault scarp development in strike-slip systems. Integrating these analyses provides three-dimensional mapping of surface deformation and identifies spatial variability in slip along the main fault trace that we attribute to distributed slip via subtle block rotation. These results indicate the benefits of laser scanner surveys along

  13. Persistent water level changes in a well near Parkfield, California, due to local and distant earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roeloffs, E.A.

    1998-01-01

    Coseismic water level rises in the 30-m deep Bourdieu Valley (BV) well near Parkfield, California, have occurred in response to three local and five distant earthquakes. Coseismic changes in static strain cannot explain these water level rises because (1) the well is insensitive to strain at tidal periods; (2) for the distant earthquakes, the expected coseismic static strain is extremely small; and (3) the water level response is of the incorrect sign for the local earthquakes. These water level changes must therefore be caused by seismic waves, but unlike seismic water level oscillations, they are monotonic, persist for days or weeks, and seem to be caused by waves with periods of several seconds rather than long-period surface waves. Other investigators have reported a similar phenomenon in Japan. Certain wells consistently exhibit this type of coseismic water level change, which is always in the same direction, regardless of the earthquake's azimuth or focal mechanism, and approximately proportional to the inverse square of hypocentral distance. To date, the coseismic water level rises in the BV well have never exceeded the seasonal water level maximum, although their sizes are relatively well correlated with earthquake magnitude and distance. The frequency independence of the well's response to barometric pressure in the frequency band 0.1 to 0.7 cpd implies that the aquifer is fairly well confined. High aquifer compressibility, probably due to a gas phase in the pore space, is the most likely reason why the well does not respond to Earth tides. The phase and amplitude relationships between the seasonal water level and precipitation cycles constrain the horizontal hydraulic diffusivity to within a factor of 4.5, bounding hypothetical earthquake-induced changes in aquifer hydraulic properties. Moreover, changes of hydraulic conductivity and/or diffusivity throughout the aquifer would not be expected to change the water level in the same direction at every time

  14. Scaling and Stress Release in the Darfield-Christchurch, New Zealand Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abercrombie, R. E.; Fry, B.; Doser, D. I.

    2014-12-01

    The Canterbury earthquake sequence began with the M7.1 Darfield earthquake in 2010, and includes the devastating M6.2 Christchurch earthquake in 2011. The high ground accelerations and damage in Christchurch suggested that the larger eartthquakes may be high stress drop events. This is consistent with the hypothesis that faults in low-strain rate regions with long inter-event times rupture in higher stress drop earthquakes. The wide magnitude range of this prolific sequence, and the high-quality recording enable us to test this. The spatial migration of the sequence, from Darfield through Christchurch and then offshore, enables us to investigate whether we can resolve any spatial or temporal variation in earthquake stress drop. An independent study of 500 aftershocks (Oth & Kaiser, 2014) found no magnitude dependence, and identified spatially varying stress drop. Such patterns can be more confidently interpreted if observed by independent studies using different approaches. We use a direct wave, empirical Green's function (EGF) approach that includes measurement uncertainties, and objective criteria for assessing the quality of each spectral ratio (Abercrombie, 2013). The large number of earthquakes in the sequence enables us to apply the same approach to a wide range of magnitudes (M~2-6) recorded at the same stations, and so minimize the effects of any systematic biases in results. In our preliminary study, we include 2500 earthquakes recorded at a number of strong motion and broadband stations. We use multiple EGFs for each event, and find 300 earthquakes with well-resolved ratios at 5 or more stations. The stress drops are magnitude independent and there is broad correlation with the results of Oth & Kaiser. We apply the same approach to a much larger data set and compare our results to those of Oth & Kaiser, and also to other regions studied using our EGF method.

  15. Preliminary Analysis of Remote Triggered Seismicity in Northern Baja California Generated by the 2011, Tohoku-Oki, Japan Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong-Ortega, V.; Castro, R. R.; Gonzalez-Huizar, H.; Velasco, A. A.

    2013-05-01

    We analyze possible variations of seismicity in the northern Baja California due to the passage of seismic waves from the 2011, M9.0, Tohoku-Oki, Japan earthquake. The northwestern area of Baja California is characterized by a mountain range composed of crystalline rocks. These Peninsular Ranges of Baja California exhibits high microseismic activity and moderate size earthquakes. In the eastern region of Baja California shearing between the Pacific and the North American plates takes place and the Imperial and Cerro-Prieto faults generate most of the seismicity. The seismicity in these regions is monitored by the seismic network RESNOM operated by the Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE). This network consists of 13 three-component seismic stations. We use the seismic catalog of RESNOM to search for changes in local seismic rates occurred after the passing of surface waves generated by the Tohoku-Oki, Japan earthquake. When we compare one month of seismicity before and after the M9.0 earthquake, the preliminary analysis shows absence of triggered seismicity in the northern Peninsular Ranges and an increase of seismicity south of the Mexicali valley where the Imperial fault jumps southwest and the Cerro Prieto fault continues.

  16. Earthquakes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roper, Paul J.; Roper, Jere Gerard

    1974-01-01

    Describes the causes and effects of earthquakes, defines the meaning of magnitude (measured on the Richter Magnitude Scale) and intensity (measured on a modified Mercalli Intensity Scale) and discusses earthquake prediction and control. (JR)

  17. Update NEMC Database using Arcgis Software and Example of Simav-Kutahya earthquake sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Altuncu Poyraz, S.; Kalafat, D.; Kekovali, K.

    2011-12-01

    In this study, totally 144043 earthquake data from the Kandilli Observatory Earthquake Research Institute & National Earthquake Monitoring Center (KOERI-NEMC) seismic catalog between 2.0≤M≤7.9 occured in Turkey for the time interval 1900-2011 were used. The data base includes not only coordinates, date, magnitude and depth of these earthquakes but also location and installation information, field studies, geology, technical properties of 154 seismic stations. Additionally, 1063 historical earthquakes included to the data base. Source parameters of totally 738 earthquakes bigger than M≥4.0 occured between the years 1938-2008 were added to the database. In addition, 103 earthquake's source parameters were calculated (bigger than M≥4.5) since 2008. In order to test the charateristics of earthquakes, questioning, visualization and analyzing aftershock sequences on 19 May 2011 Simav-Kutahya earthquake were selected and added to the data base. The Simav earthquake (western part of Anatolia) with magnitude Ml= 5.9 occurred at local time 23:15 is investigated, in terms of accurate event locations and source properties of the largest events. The aftershock distribution of Simav earthquake shows the activation of a 17-km long zone, which extends in depth between 5 and 10 km. In order to make contribution to better understand the neotectonics of this region, we analysed the earthquakes using the KOERI (Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute) seismic stations along with the seismic stations that are operated by other communities and recorded suscessfuly the Simav seismic activity in 2011. Source mechanisms of 19 earthquakes with magnitudes between 3.8 ≤ML<6.0 were calculated by means of Regional Moment Tensor Inversion (RMT) technique. The mechanism solutions show the presence of east-west direction normal faults in the region. As a result an extensional regime is dominated in the study area. The aim of this study is to store and compile earthquake

  18. A public health issue related to collateral seismic hazards: The valley fever outbreak triggered by the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jibson, R.W.

    2002-01-01

    Following the 17 January 1994 Northridge. California earthquake (M = 6.7), Ventura County, California, experienced a major outbreak of coccidioidomycosis (CM), commonly known as valley fever, a respiratory disease contracted by inhaling airborne fungal spores. In the 8 weeks following the earthquake (24 January through 15 March), 203 outbreak-associated cases were reported, which is about an order of magnitude more than the expected number of cases, and three of these cases were fatal. Simi Valley, in easternmost Ventura County, had the highest attack rate in the county, and the attack rate decreased westward across the county. The temporal and spatial distribution of CM cases indicates that the outbreak resulted from inhalation of spore-contaminated dust generated by earthquake-triggered landslides. Canyons North East of Simi Valley produced many highly disrupted, dust-generating landslides during the earthquake and its aftershocks. Winds after the earthquake were from the North East, which transported dust into Simi Valley and beyond to communities to the West. The three fatalities from the CM epidemic accounted for 4 percent of the total earthquake-related fatalities.

  19. Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3): the time-independent model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Field, Edward H.; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David D.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin R.; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Thomas; Powers, Peter M.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J.; Zeng, Yuehua; ,

    2013-01-01

    In this report we present the time-independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes in California. The primary achievements have been to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multifault ruptures, both limitations of the previous model (UCERF2). The rates of all earthquakes are solved for simultaneously, and from a broader range of data, using a system-level "grand inversion" that is both conceptually simple and extensible. The inverse problem is large and underdetermined, so a range of models is sampled using an efficient simulated annealing algorithm. The approach is more derivative than prescriptive (for example, magnitude-frequency distributions are no longer assumed), so new analysis tools were developed for exploring solutions. Epistemic uncertainties were also accounted for using 1,440 alternative logic tree branches, necessitating access to supercomputers. The most influential uncertainties include alternative deformation models (fault slip rates), a new smoothed seismicity algorithm, alternative values for the total rate of M≥5 events, and different scaling relationships, virtually all of which are new. As a notable first, three deformation models are based on kinematically consistent inversions of geodetic and geologic data, also providing slip-rate constraints on faults previously excluded because of lack of geologic data. The grand inversion constitutes a system-level framework for testing hypotheses and balancing the influence of different experts. For example, we demonstrate serious challenges with the Gutenberg-Richter hypothesis for individual faults. UCERF3 is still an approximation of the system, however, and the range of models is limited (for example, constrained to stay close to UCERF2). Nevertheless, UCERF3 removes the apparent UCERF2 overprediction of

  20. G-larmS: An Infrastructure for Geodetic Earthquake Early Warning, applied to Northern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johanson, I. A.; Grapenthin, R.; Allen, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Integrating geodetic data into seismic earthquake early warning (EEW) is critical for accurately resolving magnitude and finite fault dimensions in the very largest earthquakes (M>7). We have developed G-larmS, the Geodetic alarm System, as part of our efforts to incorporate geodetic data into EEW for Northern California. G-larmS is an extensible geodetic EEW infrastructure that analyzes positioning time series from real-time GPS processors, such as TrackRT or RTNET. It is currently running in an operational mode at the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory (BSL) where we use TrackRT to produce high sample rate displacement time series for 62 GPS stations in the greater San Francisco Bay Area with 3-4 second latency. We employ a fully triangulated network scheme, which provides resiliency against an outage or telemetry loss at any individual station, for a total of 165 basestation-rover pairs. G-larmS is tightly integrated into seismic alarm systems (CISN ShakeAlert, ElarmS) as it uses their P-wave detection alarms to trigger its own processing and sends warning messages back to the ShakeAlert decision module. Once triggered, G-larmS estimates the static offset at each station pair and inputs these into an inversion for fault slip, which is updated once per second. The software architecture and clear interface definitions of this Python implementation enable straightforward extensibility and exchange of specific algorithms that operate in the individual modules. For example, multiple modeling instances can be called in parallel, each of which applying a different strategy to infer fault and magnitude information (e.g., pre-defined fault planes, full grid search, least squares inversion, etc.). This design enables, for example, quick tests, expansion and algorithm comparisons. Here, we present the setup and report results of the first months of operation in Northern California. This includes analysis of system latencies, noise, and G-larmS' response to actual events. We

  1. Stress drop Scaling and Stress Release in the Darfield-Christchurch, New Zealand Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abercrombie, R. E.; Fry, B.; Gerstenberger, M. C.; Doser, D. I.; Bannister, S. C.

    2012-12-01

    To investigate earthquake rupture dynamics, and which factors (e.g. normal stress, strain rate, fluids, rheology) govern the earthquake source and consequent ground motions, we need to study earthquakes over a wide range of magnitudes, from a diverse range of tectonic environments. The uncertainties and discrepancies between studies of earthquake stress drop are a frustration to all those who are interested in earthquake source and fault dynamics. There is controversy over whether the earthquake rupture process is self-similar and whether it varies with tectonic setting; different studies give different results. It is unclear whether this is due to differences between the earthquakes, or the analysis methods. We are developing a direct wave, spectral ratio analysis approach that includes realistic estimates of uncertainties and has strict objective criteria for assessing the quality of an EGF derived spectral ratio (Abercrombie, 2012, submitted). Comparing this approach to other methods reveals significant random and systematic biases, enabling us to improve our understanding of the real uncertainties. The Canterbury earthquake sequence that began with the M7.1 Darfield earthquake in September 2010, and includes the devastating M6.2 Christchurch earthquake in February 2011 is a very active sequence within a low strain rate tectonic setting. To date there have been 15 earthquakes with M>5.5. High quality recording and accurate relocations make this an ideal sequence to investigate any spatial, temporal, or magnitude dependence to stress drop. The largest earthquakes appear to have relatively high stress drops (and apparent stress), consistent with the high ground accelerations and damage in Christchurch. This observation is also consistent with the hypothesis that faults in low-strain rate regions with long inter-event times rupture in higher stress drop earthquakes. We use recordings from the various GeoNet broadband stations deployed to record the ongoing

  2. Geology and ground shaking: The April 25--26, 1992 Cape Mendocino earthquake sequence

    SciTech Connect

    Moley, K.; Dengler, L. . Dept. of Geology)

    1993-04-01

    The authors present a simplified geologic map of Humboldt and Del Norte Counties, California and compare it to Modified Mercalli Intensities (MMI) produced by the April 25, 1992 M[sub S] = 7.1, and April 26 Ms = 6.6, and Ms = 6.7 Cape Mendocino earthquakes. The generalized geology was compiled from California Division of Mines and Geology Regional Geology Maps, and area geologic mapping by the USGS and Humboldt State University. Six rock/sediment groups are distinguished by considering lithology, consolidation, compaction, bedding orientation and degree of shearing: (1) landslides and glacial deposits; (2) bay muds and fill, alluvium, lake deposits and beach sand; (3) quaternary marine and non-marine deposits; (4) unstable bedrock; (5) moderately stable bedrock; (6) intrusions. Intensity values for the Saturday earthquake were calculated from over 2,000 surveys to individuals and businesses in the northcoast area by an algorithm based on a weighted sum of survey responses. Numerical data was compiled for over 100 locations in the region. The intensity VIII and greater zone encompassed an area of about 500 km[sup 2] including the communities of Petrolia, Ferndale and Rio Dell. Ground motion generally decays with distance in a roughly radial pattern. A different approach was taken to estimate the pattern of shaking in the two Sunday earthquakes. These earthquakes occurred when most respondents were sleeping and their perception of ground motion was likely to be affected.

  3. Detection of crustal deformation from the Landers earthquake sequence using continuous geodetic measurements

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bock, Y.; Agnew, D.C.; Fang, P.; Genrich, J.F.; Hager, B.H.; Herring, T.A.; Hudnut, K.W.; King, R.W.; Larsen, S.; Minster, J.-B.; Stark, K.; Wdowinski, S.; Wyatt, F.K.

    1993-01-01

    The measurement of crustal motions in technically active regions is being performed increasingly by the satellite-based Global Positioning System (GPS)1,2, which offers considerable advantages over conventional geodetic techniques3,4. Continuously operating GPS arrays with ground-based receivers spaced tens of kilometres apart have been established in central Japan5,6 and southern California to monitor the spatial and temporal details of crustal deformation. Here we report the first measurements for a major earthquake by a continuously operating GPS network, the Permanent GPS Geodetic Array (PGGA)7,9 in southern California. The Landers (magnitude Mw of 7.3) and Big Bear (Mw 6.2) earthquakes of 28 June 1992 were monitored by daily observations. Ten weeks of measurements, centred on the earthquake events, indicate significant coseismic motion at all PGGA sites, significant post-seismic motion at one site for two weeks after the earthquakes, and no significant preseismic motion. These measurements demonstrate the potential of GPS monitoring for precise detection of precursory and aftershock seismic deformation in the near and far field.

  4. Earthquake sequencing: chimera states with Kuramoto model dynamics on directed graphs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasudevan, K.; Cavers, M.; Ware, A.

    2015-09-01

    Earthquake sequencing studies allow us to investigate empirical relationships among spatio-temporal parameters describing the complexity of earthquake properties. We have recently studied the relevance of Markov chain models to draw information from global earthquake catalogues. In these studies, we considered directed graphs as graph theoretic representations of the Markov chain model and analyzed their properties. Here, we look at earthquake sequencing itself as a directed graph. In general, earthquakes are occurrences resulting from significant stress interactions among faults. As a result, stress-field fluctuations evolve continuously. We propose that they are akin to the dynamics of the collective behavior of weakly coupled non-linear oscillators. Since mapping of global stress-field fluctuations in real time at all scales is an impossible task, we consider an earthquake zone as a proxy for a collection of weakly coupled oscillators, the dynamics of which would be appropriate for the ubiquitous Kuramoto model. In the present work, we apply the Kuramoto model with phase lag to the non-linear dynamics on a directed graph of a sequence of earthquakes. For directed graphs with certain properties, the Kuramoto model yields synchronization, and inclusion of non-local effects evokes the occurrence of chimera states or the co-existence of synchronous and asynchronous behavior of oscillators. In this paper, we show how we build the directed graphs derived from global seismicity data. Then, we present conditions under which chimera states could occur and, subsequently, point out the role of the Kuramoto model in understanding the evolution of synchronous and asynchronous regions. We surmise that one implication of the emergence of chimera states will lead to investigation of the present and other mathematical models in detail to generate global chimera-state maps similar to global seismicity maps for earthquake forecasting studies.

  5. Systematic Changes Of Earthquake Rupture With Depth: A Case Study From The 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile, Earthquake Aftershock Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tolga Şen, Ali; Cesca, Simone; Heimann, Sebastian; Lange, Dietrich; Dahm, Torsten; Tilmann, Frederik

    2015-04-01

    The very shallow part of subduction megathrusts occasionally hosts tsunami earthquakes, with unusually slow rupture propagation. The aftershock sequence of the 2010 MW8.8 Maule earthquake, offshore Chile, provides us with the opportunity to study systematic changes in source properties for smaller earthquakes within a single segment of a subduction zone. We invert amplitude spectra for double couple moment tensors and centroid depths of 71 aftershocks of the Maule earthquake down to magnitudes MW 4.0 and 6.8. In addition, we also derive average source durations. Depending on the availability of data from a 130 broadband station temporary array, we employ two modelling schemes optimised for regional and teleseismic data. The resulting focal mechanisms highlight the correlation of the fault planes thrust earthquakes with the 3D slab model geometry in the area, and the occurrence of normal faulting earthquakes on a crustal fault system in the northernmost part of the study area. We find that shallower earthquakes tend to have longer normalized source durations on average, similar to the pattern observed previously for larger magnitude events. The normalised source durations of normal faulting earthquakes are at the lower end of those for thrust earthquakes, probably because of the higher stress drops of intraplate earthquakes compared to interplate earthquakes. Notably, a similar depth dependence is observable for thrust and normal earthquakes. We tentatively conclude from the similarity of the depth dependence of normal and thrust events and between smaller and larger magnitude earthquakes that the depth-dependent variation of rigidity is primarily responsible for the observed pattern rather than frictional conditional stability at the plate interface Tsunami earthquakes probably require both low rigidity and conditionally stable frictional conditions; the presence of long duration moderate magnitude events is therefore a helpful but not sufficient indicator for

  6. Data and Visualizations in the Southern California Earthquake Center's Fault Information System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, S.

    2003-12-01

    The Southern California Earthquake Center's Fault Information System (FIS) provides a single point of access to fault-related data and models from multiple databases and datasets. The FIS is built of computer code, metadata and Web interfaces based on Web services technology, which enables queries and data interchange irrespective of computer software or platform. Currently we have working prototypes of programmatic and browser-based access. The first generation FIS may be searched and downloaded live, by automated processes, as well as interactively, by humans using a browser. Users get ascii data in plain text or encoded in XML. Via the Earthquake Information Technology (EIT) Interns (Juve and others, this meeting), we are also testing the effectiveness of querying multiple databases using a fault database ontology. For more than a decade, the California Geological Survey (CGS), SCEC, and the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) have put considerable, shared resources into compiling and assessing published fault data, then providing the data on the Web. Several databases now exist, with different formats, datasets, purposes, and users, in various stages of completion. When fault databases were first envisioned, the full power of today's internet was not yet recognized, and the databases became the Web equivalents of review papers, where one could read an overview summation of a fault, then copy and paste pertinent data. Today, numerous researchers also require rapid queries and downloads of data. Consequently, the first components of the FIS are MySQL databases that deliver numeric values from earlier, text-based databases. Another essential service provided by the FIS is visualizations of fault representations such as those in SCEC's Community Fault Model. The long term goal is to provide a standardized, open-source, platform-independent visualization technique. Currently, the FIS makes available fault model viewing software for users with access to Matlab or Java3D

  7. Structural Control on South Napa Earthquake Sequence and Its Effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Langenheim, V. E.; Graymer, R. W.; Jachens, R. C.

    2014-12-01

    Potential-field data indicate that the M6.0 South Napa earthquake and its aftershocks were influenced by complex structure among the West Napa-Carneros-Pinole-Franklin faults system. The West Napa and Carneros faults, although considered to be minor Quaternary players within the San Andreas fault system, are major faults that in part bound the Mayacamas Mountains, an uplifted block of Mesozoic basement between Sonoma and Napa Valleys, and that produce prominent potential-field gradients. These two faults may account for as much as 30-50 km of right-lateral offset since ~6 Ma based on offset magnetic anomalies, length of pull-apart basins, and correlation of Neogene units. Uplift of the block may be Quaternary in age because gravels found to the west of the range contain clasts of 2.8 Ma obsidian derived from the east of the range. The southern extent of the South Napa earthquake rupture and seismicity is bounded on the west by the north end of a pull-apart basin between the Carneros and Pinole faults reflected in gravity data. The prominent gravity and magnetic gradients associated with the West Napa fault weaken where mapped traces of the fault begin to splay at the southern extent of Mesozoic and Paleogene outcrops. This region also encompasses multiple linear north-northwest-trending features identified in UAVSAR and is where the Carneros and West Napa faults are closest at the surface. We suggest that the interaction of these two faults not only affects the South Napa earthquake, but also influenced the extent of seismicity following the 2000 Yountville earthquake as well as the diffuse zone of seismicity generally confined between these two faults as they curve northwestward towards the southern end of the Maacama fault. Damage produced by the South Napa and Yountville earthquakes may have been focused by the 2-3 km-deep basin beneath the city of Napa, concentrated not over the deepest parts of the basin, but rather along the periphery or over an intra

  8. The enigma of the Arthur's Pass, New Zealand, earthquake 1. Reconciling a variety of data for an unusual earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Abercrombie, R.E.; Webb, T.H.; Robinson, R.; McGinty, P.J.; Mori, J.J.; Beavan, R.J.

    2000-01-01

    The 1994 Arthur's Pass earthquake (Mw6.7) is the largest in a recent sequence of earthquakes in the central South Island, New Zealand. No surface rupture was observed the aftershock distribution was complex, and routine methods of obtaining the faulting orientation of this earthquake proved contradictory. We use a range of data and techniques to obtain our preferred solution, which has a centroid depth of 5 km, Mo=1.3??1019 N m, and a strike, dip, and rake of 221??, 47??, 112??, respectively. Discrepancies between this solution and the Harvard centroid moment tensor, together with the Global Positioning System (GPS) observations and unusual aftershock distribution, suggest that the rupture may not have occurred on a planar fault. A second, strike slip, subevent on a more northerly striking plane is suggested by these data but neither the body wave modeling nor regional broadband recordings show any complexity or late subevents. We relocate the aftershocks using both one-dimensional and three-dimensional velocity inversions. The depth range of the aftershocks (1-10 km) agrees well with the preferred mainshock centroid depth. The aftershocks near the hypocenter suggest a structure dipping toward the NW, which we interpret to be the mainshock fault plane. This structure and the Harper fault, ???15 km to the south appear to have acted as boundaries to the extensive aftershock zone trending NNW-SSE Most of the ML???5 aftershocks, including the two largest (ML6.1 and ML5.7), clustered near the Harper fault and have strike slip mechanisms consistent with motion on this fault and its conjugates. Forward modeling of the GPS data suggests that a reverse slip mainshock, combined with strike slip aftershock faulting in the south, is able to match the observed displacements. The occurrence of this earthquake sequence implies that the level of seismic hazard in the central South Island is greater than previous estimates. Copyright 2000 by the American Geophysical Union.

  9. Seismological evidence for monsoon induced micro to moderate earthquake sequence beneath the 2011 Talala, Saurashtra earthquake, Gujarat, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, A. P.; Mishra, O. P.

    2015-10-01

    In order to understand the processes involved in the genesis of monsoon induced micro to moderate earthquakes after heavy rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon period beneath the 2011 Talala, Saurashtra earthquake (Mw 5.1) source zone, we assimilated 3-D microstructures of the sub-surface rock materials using a data set recorded by the Seismic Network of Gujarat (SeisNetG), India. Crack attributes in terms of crack density (ε), the saturation rate (ξ) and porosity parameter (ψ) were determined from the estimated 3-D sub-surface velocities (Vp, Vs) and Poisson's ratio (σ) structures of the area at varying depths. We distinctly imaged high-ε, high-ξ and low-ψ anomalies at shallow depths, extending up to 9-15 km. We infer that the existence of sub-surface fractured rock matrix connected to the surface from the source zone may have contributed to the changes in differential strain deep down to the crust due to the infiltration of rainwater, which in turn induced micro to moderate earthquake sequence beneath Talala source zone. Infiltration of rainwater during the Indian summer monsoon might have hastened the failure of the rock by perturbing the crustal volume strain of the causative source rock matrix associated with the changes in the seismic moment release beneath the surface. Analyses of crack attributes suggest that the fractured volume of the rock matrix with high porosity and lowered seismic strength beneath the source zone might have considerable influence on the style of fault displacements due to seismo-hydraulic fluid flows. Localized zone of micro-cracks diagnosed within the causative rock matrix connected to the water table and their association with shallow crustal faults might have acted as a conduit for infiltrating the precipitation down to the shallow crustal layers following the fault suction mechanism of pore pressure diffusion, triggering the monsoon induced earthquake sequence beneath the source zone.

  10. Differentiating Tectonic and Anthropogenic Earthquakes in the Greater Los Angeles Basin, Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hauksson, E.; Goebel, T.; Cochran, E. S.; Ampuero, J. P.

    2014-12-01

    The 2014 flurry of moderate earthquakes in the Los Angeles region raised the concern if some of this or past seismicity was of anthropogenic origin as opposed to being caused by ongoing transpressional tectonics. The Mw5.1 La Habra sequence is located near several major oil fields but the Mw4.4 Encino sequence was located away from oil fields, within the Santa Monica Mountains. The last century of seismicity in the Los Angeles area consists of numerous small and large earthquakes. Most of these earthquakes occur beneath the basin sediments and are associated with transpressional tectonics, related to the big bend in the San Andreas fault, but some could be associated with large oil fields. In particular, both the 1933 Mw6.4 Long Beach and the 1987 Mw5.9 Whittier Narrows earthquakes were spatially associated with two major oil fields, the Huntington Beach and Montebello fields. Numerous large oil fields have been in production for more than 125 years. The geographical locations of the oil fields follow major tectonic trends such as the Newport-Inglewood fault, the Whittier fault, and the thrust belt located at the north edge of the Los Angeles basin. More than 60 fields have oil wells and some of these have both disposal and fracking wells. Before fluid injection became common, Kovach (1974) documented six damaging events induced by fluid extraction from 1947 to 1961 in the Wilmington oil field. Since 1981 the waveform-relocated earthquake catalog for the Los Angeles basin is complete on the average above M2.0. We compare the spatial distribution of these events and the proximity of nearby active oil fields. We will also analyze the seismicity in the context of available monthly fluid extraction and injection volumes and search for temporal correlations. The La Habra sequence apparently correlates with temporal changes in extraction and injection volumes in the Santa Fe Springs oil field but not with activities in other oil fields within closer spatial proximity.

  11. Evidence of shallow fault zone strengthening after the 1992 M7.5 landers, california, earthquake

    PubMed

    Li; Vidale; Aki; Xu; Burdette

    1998-01-01

    Repeated seismic surveys of the Landers, California, fault zone that ruptured in the magnitude (M) 7.5 earthquake of 1992 reveal an increase in seismic velocity with time. P, S, and fault zone trapped waves were excited by near-surface explosions in two locations in 1994 and 1996, and were recorded on two linear, three-component seismic arrays deployed across the Johnson Valley fault trace. The travel times of P and S waves for identical shot-receiver pairs decreased by 0.5 to 1.5 percent from 1994 to 1996, with the larger changes at stations located within the fault zone. These observations indicate that the shallow Johnson Valley fault is strengthening after the main shock, most likely because of closure of cracks that were opened by the 1992 earthquake. The increase in velocity is consistent with the prevalence of dry over wet cracks and with a reduction in the apparent crack density near the fault zone by approximately 1.0 percent from 1994 to 1996.

  12. Triggered reverse fault and earthquake due to crustal unloading, northwest Transverse Ranges, California.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yerkes, R.F.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Tinsley, J.C.

    1983-01-01

    A reverse-right-oblique surface rupture, associated with a ML 2.5 earthquake, formed in a diatomite quarry near Lompoc, California, in the northwesternmost Transverse Ranges on April 7, 1981. The 575-m-long narrow zone of ruptures formed in clay interbeds in diatomite and diatomaceous shale of the Neogene Monterey Formation. The ruptures parallel bedding, dip 39o-59oS, and trend about N84oE on the north limb of an open symmetrical syncline. Maximum net slip was 25 cm; maximum reverse dip slip was 23 cm, maximum right-lateral strike slip was about 9 cm, and average net slip was about 12 cm. The seismic moment of the earthquake is estimated at 1 to 2 X 1018 dyne/cm and the static stress drop at about 3 bar. The removal of an average of about 44 m of diatomite resulted in an average load reduction of about 5 bar, which decreased the normal stress by about 3.5 bar and increased the shear stress on the tilted bedding plane by about 2 bar. The April 7, 1981, event was a very shallow bedding-plane rupture, apparently triggered by crustal unloading. -Authors

  13. Rupture propagation of the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake from observations at the UPSAR

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fletcher, Joe B.; Spudich, P.; Baker, L.M.

    2006-01-01

    Using a short-baseline seismic array (U.S. Geological Survey Parkfield Dense Seismograph Array [UPSAR]) about 12 km west of the rupture initiation of the 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake, we have observed the movement of the rupture front of this earthquake on the San Andreas fault. The sources of high-frequency arrivals at UPSAR, which we use to identify the rupture front, are mapped onto the San Andreas fault using their apparent velocity and back azimuth. Measurements of apparent velocity and back azimuth are calibrated using aftershocks, which have a compact source and known location. Aftershock back azimuths show considerable lateral refraction, consistent with a high-velocity ridge on the southwest side of the fault. We infer that the initial mainshock rupture velocity was approximately the Rayleigh speed (with respect to slower side of the fault), and the rupture then slowed to about 0.66?? near the town of Parkfield after 2 sec. The last well-correlated pulse, 4 sec after S, is the largest at UPSAR, and its source is near the region of large accelerations recorded by strong-motion accelerographs and close to northern extent of continuous surface fractures on the southwest fracture zone. Coincidence of sources with preshock and aftershock distributions suggests fault material properties control rupture behavior. High-frequency sources approximately correlate with the edges of asperities identified as regions of high slip derived from inversion of strong-motion waveforms.

  14. Evidence of shallow fault zone strengthening after the 1992 M7.5 Landers, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Li, Y.-G.; Vidale, J.E.; Aki, K.; Xu, Fei; Burdette, T.

    1998-01-01

    Repeated seismic surveys of the Landers, California, fault zone that ruptured in the magnitude (M) 7.5 earthquake of 1992 reveal an increase in seismic velocity with time. P, S, and fault zone trapped waves were excited by near-surface explosions in two locations in 1994 and 1996, and were recorded on two linear, three-component seismic arrays deployed across the Johnson Valley fault trace. The travel times of P and S waves for identical shot-receiver pairs decreased by 0.5 to 1.5 percent from 1994 to 1996, with the larger changes at stations located within the fault zone. These observations indicate that the shallow Johnson Valley fault is strengthening after the main shock, most likely because of closure of cracks that were opened by the 1992 earthquake. The increase in velocity is consistent with the prevalence of dry over wet cracks and with a reduction in the apparent crack density near the fault zone by approximately 1.0 percent from 1994 to 1996.

  15. A Double-difference Earthquake location algorithm: Method and application to the Northern Hayward Fault, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Waldhauser, F.; Ellsworth, W.L.

    2000-01-01

    We have developed an efficient method to determine high-resolution hypocenter locations over large distances. The location method incorporates ordinary absolute travel-time measurements and/or cross-correlation P-and S-wave differential travel-time measurements. Residuals between observed and theoretical travel-time differences (or double-differences) are minimized for pairs of earthquakes at each station while linking together all observed event-station pairs. A least-squares solution is found by iteratively adjusting the vector difference between hypocentral pairs. The double-difference algorithm minimizes errors due to unmodeled velocity structure without the use of station corrections. Because catalog and cross-correlation data are combined into one system of equations, interevent distances within multiplets are determined to the accuracy of the cross-correlation data, while the relative locations between multiplets and uncorrelated events are simultaneously determined to the accuracy of the absolute travel-time data. Statistical resampling methods are used to estimate data accuracy and location errors. Uncertainties in double-difference locations are improved by more than an order of magnitude compared to catalog locations. The algorithm is tested, and its performance is demonstrated on two clusters of earthquakes located on the northern Hayward fault, California. There it colapses the diffuse catalog locations into sharp images of seismicity and reveals horizontal lineations of hypocenter that define the narrow regions on the fault where stress is released by brittle failure.

  16. Comparison of four moderate-size earthquakes in southern California using seismology and InSAR

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mellors, R.J.; Magistrale, H.; Earle, P.; Cogbill, A.H.

    2004-01-01

    Source parameters determined from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) measurements and from seismic data are compared from four moderate-size (less than M 6) earthquakes in southern California. The goal is to verify approximate detection capabilities of InSAR, assess differences in the results, and test how the two results can be reconciled. First, we calculated the expected surface deformation from all earthquakes greater than magnitude 4 in areas with available InSAR data (347 events). A search for deformation from the events in the interferograms yielded four possible events with magnitudes less than 6. The search for deformation was based on a visual inspection as well as cross-correlation in two dimensions between the measured signal and the expected signal. A grid-search algorithm was then used to estimate focal mechanism and depth from the InSAR data. The results were compared with locations and focal mechanisms from published catalogs. An independent relocation using seismic data was also performed. The seismic locations fell within the area of the expected rupture zone for the three events that show clear surface deformation. Therefore, the technique shows the capability to resolve locations with high accuracy and is applicable worldwide. The depths determined by InSAR agree with well-constrained seismic locations determined in a 3D velocity model. Depth control for well-imaged shallow events using InSAR data is good, and better than the seismic constraints in some cases. A major difficulty for InSAR analysis is the poor temporal coverage of InSAR data, which may make it impossible to distinguish deformation due to different earthquakes at the same location.

  17. Conceptualizing ¬the Abstractions of Earthquakes Through an Instructional Sequence Using SeisMac and the Rapid Earthquake Viewer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taber, J.; Hubenthal, M.; Wysession, M.

    2007-12-01

    Newsworthy earthquakes provide an engaging hook for students in Earth science classes, particularly when discussing their effects on people and the landscape. However, engaging students in an analysis of earthquakes that extends beyond death and damage, is frequently hampered by the abstraction of recorded ground motion data in the form of raw seismograms and the inability of most students to personally relate to ground accelerations. To overcome these challenges, an educational sequence has been developed using two software tools: SeisMac by Daniel Griscom, and the Rapid Earthquake Viewer (REV) developed by the University of South Carolina in collaboration with IRIS and DLESE. This sequence presents a unique opportunity for Earth Science teachers to "create" foundational experiences for students as they construction a framework of understanding of abstract concepts. The first activity is designed to introduce the concept of a three-component seismogram and to directly address the very abstract nature of seismograms through a kinesthetic experience. Students first learn to take the pulse of their classroom through a guided exploration of SeisMac, which displays the output of the laptop's built-in Sudden Motion Sensor (a 3-component accelerometer). This exploration allows students to view a 3-component seismogram as they move or tap the laptop and encourages them to propose and carry out experiments to explain the meaning of the 3-component seismogram. Once completed students are then asked to apply this new knowledge to a real 3-component seismogram printed from REV. Next the activity guides students through the process of identifying P and S waves and using SeisMac to connect the physical motion of the laptop to the "wiggles" they see on the SeisMac display and then comparing those to the "wiggles" they see on their seismogram. At this point students are more fully prepared to engage in an S-P location exercise such as those included in many state standards

  18. Monitoring of the stress state variations of the Southern California for the purpose of earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gokhberg, M.; Garagash, I.; Bondur, V.; Steblov, G. M.

    2014-12-01

    The three-dimensional geomechanical model of Southern California was developed, including a mountain relief, fault tectonics and characteristic internal features such as the roof of the consolidated crust and Moho surface. The initial stress state of the model is governed by the gravitational forces and horizontal tectonic motions estimated from GPS observations. The analysis shows that the three-dimensional geomechanical models allows monitoring of the changes in the stress state during the seismic process in order to constrain the distribution of the future places with increasing seismic activity. This investigation demonstrates one of possible approach to monitor upcoming seismicity for the periods of days - weeks - months. Continuous analysis of the stress state was carried out during 2009-2014. Each new earthquake with М~1 and above from USGS catalog was considered as the new defect of the Earth crust which has some definite size and causes redistribution of the stress state. Overall calculation technique was based on the single function of the Earth crust damage, recalculated each half month. As a result each half month in the upper crust layers and partially in the middle layers we revealed locations of the maximal values of the stress state parameters: elastic energy density, shear stress, proximity of the earth crust layers to their strength limit. All these parameters exhibit similar spatial and temporal distribution. How follows from observations all four strongest events with М ~ 5.5-7.2 occurred in South California during the analyzed period were prefaced by the parameters anomalies in peculiar advance time of weeks-months in the vicinity of 10-50 km from the upcoming earthquake. After the event the stress state source disappeared. The figure shows migration of the maximums of the stress state variations gradients (parameter D) in the vicinity of the epicenter of the earthquake 04.04.2010 with М=7.2 in the period of 01.01.2010-01.05.2010. Grey lines

  19. Earthquake cycle on the Ballenas Fault, Central Gulf of California, MX

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malservisi, R.; Plattner, C.; Hackl, M.; Gonzalez-Garcia, J. J.; Suarez Vidal, F.; Amelung, F.; Dixon, T. H.

    2009-12-01

    South of the San Andreas Fault system, ~90% of the North America/Pacific plate motion is accommodate along the Gulf of California. Here the plate boundary deformation is partitioned in deep basins, often resulting in formation of new oceanic crust, connected by long transform faults. In the central part of the Gulf, one of these transform fault, the Ballenas fault, is localized in the Canales de Ballenas, a ~30 km wide channel between Isla Angel de la Garda and mainland Baja California. The presence of land on both the sides of this marine transform fault give the unique opportunity to perform geodetic study across its trace. On August 3rd 2009, a series of seismic strike slip events (including a M6.9) happened along this segment of plate boundary allowing a combined study of co- and inter- seismic deformation. Here we present the results from 5 years of EGPS along two transects perpendicular to the plate motion direction at 29 and 28 degrees North. These surveys include at least 3 occupations before the seismic event and at least 1 occupation after the earthquake. The analysis of the inter-seismic data shows that ~46 mm/yr is accommodated within the Canales de Ballenas. Co-seismic data are being collected at the time of the deadline for this abstract and will be presented at the meeting in combination with InSar signal.

  20. The Canterbury Tales: Lessons from the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence to Inform Better Public Communication Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McBride, S.; Tilley, E. N.; Johnston, D. M.; Becker, J.; Orchiston, C.

    2015-12-01

    This research evaluates the public education earthquake information prior to the Canterbury Earthquake sequence (2010-present), and examines communication learnings to create recommendations for improvement in implementation for these types of campaigns in future. The research comes from a practitioner perspective of someone who worked on these campaigns in Canterbury prior to the Earthquake Sequence and who also was the Public Information Manager Second in Command during the earthquake response in February 2011. Documents, specifically those addressing seismic risk, that were created prior to the earthquake sequence, were analyzed, using a "best practice matrix" created by the researcher, for how closely these aligned to best practice academic research. Readability tests and word counts are also employed to assist with triangulation of the data as was practitioner involvement. This research also outlines the lessons learned by practitioners and explores their experiences in regards to creating these materials and how they perceive these now, given all that has happened since the inception of the booklets. The findings from the research showed these documents lacked many of the attributes of best practice. The overly long, jargon filled text had little positive outcome expectancy messages. This probably would have failed to persuade anyone that earthquakes were a real threat in Canterbury. Paradoxically, it is likely these booklets may have created fatalism in publics who read the booklets. While the overall intention was positive, for scientists to explain earthquakes, tsunami, landslides and other risks to encourage the public to prepare for these events, the implementation could be greatly improved. This final component of the research highlights points of improvement for implementation for more successful campaigns in future. The importance of preparedness and science information campaigns can be not only in preparing the population but also into development of

  1. CRUSTAL REFRACTION PROFILE OF THE LONG VALLEY CALDERA, CALIFORNIA, FROM THE JANUARY 1983 MAMMOTH LAKES EARTHQUAKE SWARM.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Luetgert, James H.; Mooney, Walter D.

    1985-01-01

    Seismic-refraction profiles recorded north of Mammoth Lakes, California, using earthquake sources from the January 1983 swarm complement earlier explosion refraction profiles and provide velocity information from deeper in the crust in the area of the Long Valley caldera. Eight earthquakes from a depth range of 4. 9 to 8. 0 km confirm the observation of basement rocks with seismic velocities ranging from 5. 8 to 6. 4 km/sec extending at least to depths of 20 km. The data provide further evidence for the existence of a partial melt zone beneath Long Valley caldera and constrain its geometry. Refs.

  2. Survey of strong motion earthquake effects on thermal power plants in California with emphasis on piping systems. Volume 2, Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    Stevenson, J.D.

    1995-11-01

    Volume 2 of the ``Survey of Strong Motion Earthquake Effects on Thermal Power Plants in California with Emphasis on Piping Systems`` contains Appendices which detail the detail design and seismic response of several power plants subjected to strong motion earthquakes. The particular plants considered include the Ormond Beach, Long Beach and Seal Beach, Burbank, El Centro, Glendale, Humboldt Bay, Kem Valley, Pasadena and Valley power plants. Included is a typical power plant piping specification and photographs of typical power plant piping specification and photographs of typical piping and support installations for the plants surveyed. Detailed piping support spacing data are also included.

  3. The performance of rock slopes during the 2010/11 Canterbury Earthquake sequence, New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massey, C. I.; McSaveney, M. J.; Francois-Holden, C.; Kaiser, A. E.

    2014-12-01

    The 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes triggered many landslides in the Port Hills including rockfalls, rock and debris avalanches and slides and associated cliff-top cracking. The most abundant, and the highest risk to people and buildings, were rockfalls and rock/debris avalanches. Volumes of rock leaving several cliffs during the earthquake sequence were determined from terrestrial laser scan change models. Relationships between volume leaving cliffs during the earthquakes, and site peak ground acceleration, Arias intensity, peak ground velocity, and shaking duration above a given amplitude threshold were compared for different sites. There were no instrumented cliff sites and some distance between the cliffs and nearest strong-motion sites. Therefore, we synthesised free-field rock-outcrop seismograms by employing a stochastic approach controlled by source models and regional parameters derived using spectral inversion of the extensive strong motion data set (Holden et al., 2014; Oth and Kaiser in press; Kaiser et al., 2013). Rockfall volumes fit a power law with horizontal peak ground accelerations, with the exception of the 4 Sept. 2010 (Darfield) earthquake (Figure 1) which generated much smaller failures at Port Hills sites than in later earthquakes. This is presumed to be because the rock slopes became more fractured in the 22 Feb. 2011 earthquake. Ground conditions likely weakened further after 22 Feb. 2011. Fracturing and rock-mass strength degradation during subsequent earthquakes further degraded rock-mass quality, but the amount of degradation in each is unknown. We suggest strong ground motion removes the mass most susceptible to failure, whilst reducing the strength of other remaining rock by dilating existing and generating new fractures. Shaking episodes thus increase the slope's susceptibility to failure. This process repeats, such that rock slopes experience a continual cycle of coseismic weakening and failure (Parker et al. 2012). Immediately

  4. Fault structure and mechanics of the Hayward Fault, California from double-difference earthquake locations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Waldhauser, F.; Ellsworth, W.L.

    2002-01-01

    The relationship between small-magnitude seismicity and large-scale crustal faulting along the Hayward Fault, California, is investigated using a double-difference (DD) earthquake location algorithm. We used the DD method to determine high-resolution hypocenter locations of the seismicity that occurred between 1967 and 1998. The DD technique incorporates catalog travel time data and relative P and S wave arrival time measurements from waveform cross correlation to solve for the hypocentral separation between events. The relocated seismicity reveals a narrow, near-vertical fault zone at most locations. This zone follows the Hayward Fault along its northern half and then diverges from it to the east near San Leandro, forming the Mission trend. The relocated seismicity is consistent with the idea that slip from the Calaveras Fault is transferred over the Mission trend onto the northern Hayward Fault. The Mission trend is not clearly associated with any mapped active fault as it continues to the south and joins the Calaveras Fault at Calaveras Reservoir. In some locations, discrete structures adjacent to the main trace are seen, features that were previously hidden in the uncertainty of the network locations. The fine structure of the seismicity suggest that the fault surface on the northern Hayward Fault is curved or that the events occur on several substructures. Near San Leandro, where the more westerly striking trend of the Mission seismicity intersects with the surface trace of the (aseismic) southern Hayward Fault, the seismicity remains diffuse after relocation, with strong variation in focal mechanisms between adjacent events indicating a highly fractured zone of deformation. The seismicity is highly organized in space, especially on the northern Hayward Fault, where it forms horizontal, slip-parallel streaks of hypocenters of only a few tens of meters width, bounded by areas almost absent of seismic activity. During the interval from 1984 to 1998, when digital

  5. Reservoir properties of submarine- fan facies: Great Valley sequence, California.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McLean, H.

    1981-01-01

    Submarine-fan sandstones of the Great Valley sequence west of the Sacramento Valley, California, have low porosities and permeabilities. However, petrography and scanning electron microscope studies indicate that most sands in almost all submarine-fan environments are originally porous and permeable. Thin turbidite sandstones deposited in areas dominated by shale in the outer-fan and basin-plain are cemented mainly by calcite; shale dewatering is inferred to contribute to rapid cementation early in the burial process. Sands deposited in inner- and middle-fan channels with only thin shale beds have small percentrages of intergranular cement. The original porosity is reduced mechanically at shallow depths and by pressure solution at deeperlevels. Permeability decreases with increasing age of the rocks, as a result of increasing burial depths. Computer-run stepwise regression analyses show that the porosity is inversely related to the percentage of calcite cement. The results reported here indicate original porosity and permeability can be high in deep-water submarine fans and that fan environments dominated by sand (with high sand/shale ratios) are more likely to retain higher porosity and permeability to greater depths than sand interbedded with thick shale sequences.-from Author

  6. Lower Permian sediment-gravity-flow sequence, eastern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stevens, C.H.; Lico, M.S.; Stone, P.

    1989-01-01

    The Lower Permian (middle Wolfcampian) Zinc Hill sequence, a 65- to 110-m-thick series of beds in the Owens Valley Group in east-central California, comprises sediment-gravity-flow deposits consisting of carbonate sediment that originated on, and siliciclastic sediment that may have been generally ponded behind, a carbonate shelf to the east and northeast. Thickness patterns and paleocurrent indicators show that the sediment forming this sequence was transported primarily southeastward and deposited in a southeast-trending, lobe-shaped body. Evidently, the sediment was carried from the shelf by sediment-gravity flows that travelled westward down the slope and then turned southeastward upon reaching a southeast-trending basin at the base of the slope. Data derived from the study of this basin, which paralleled the shelf edge and is thought to have formed parallel to a southeast-oriented segment of the Early Permian continental margin, constitute one of the most important arguments favoring a Pennsylvanian to Early Permian age of truncation of the western North American continental margin. ?? 1989.

  7. Signature of Fault Healing in an Aftershock Sequence? The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Shengfeng; Wu, Zhongliang; Jiang, Changsheng

    2016-01-01

    We analyzed the aftershock sequence of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake from May 12, 2008 to May 12, 2013 using the earthquake catalog of the China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC). In the analysis performed, we took under consideration the temporary variation in the completeness of the earthquake catalog just after the Wenchuan mainshock. The cutoff completeness magnitude from May 12 to June 27, 2008 was above 3.0 due to the impact of the earthquake sequence on the seismological observatory practice. It was observed that the b value has an increasing trend from June 27, 2008 to late April 2009, while since May 2009, the b value has remained stable. If these characteristics were associated with the possible signature of fault healing, the `apparent healing time' could be pinpointed by this measure as around 1 year. Due to two strong asperities present on the rupture of the Wenchuan mainshock, the aftershock zone can be divided into two segments, namely the north and the south segment. The b values of the two segments seem to show different trends of temporal variation. The main contribution of the increasing trend comes from the south segment, or the `initiation segment' of the main rupture.

  8. The tectonic context of the destructive 2010-2011 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reyners, M.; Eberhart-Phillips, D. M.; Bannister, S. C.; Martin, S.

    2011-12-01

    The destructive Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence has resulted in 181 deaths and caused damage in the US$15 billion range. A dense network of accelerographs has recorded an exceptional set of strong ground motions, with peak ground accelerations reaching 1.26 g during the Mw 7.1 mainshock on 04 September 2010, 2.20 g during the Mw 6.2 aftershock on 22 February 2011, and 2.04 g during the Mw 6.0 aftershock on 13 June 2011. This ongoing sequence raises important questions about the hazard from infrequent intraplate earthquakes in low strain rate regions (a few mm/yr in the case of the Canterbury region), including: 1) Why was the shaking from these events so strong? 2) Why does this earthquake sequence continue to be so productive? 3) Would we expect a similar earthquake sequence in other low-strain regions? Here we investigate these questions by carrying out a fine scale 3-D tomographic inversion for crustal structure using arrival time data from aftershocks, regional seismicity and active source data. We carry out a series of gradational inversions, using the recently determined New Zealand nationwide 3-D seismic velocity model as our initial model. Our 3-D model shows that structural features shallow around the northern edge of Banks Peninsula, a basaltic shield volcano immediately south of the city of Christchurch that was active during the period 12 - 6 Myr ago. Our results suggest that crustal structure has played a first order role in the earthquake sequence. At approximately 10 km depth, we have a ca. 100 Myr-old plate boundary, marking the subduction thrust where the Hikurangi Plateau (a large igneous province) subducted under the edge of Gondwana. This plateau is extremely strong and has a very deep brittle-ductile transition - small earthquakes extend down to 35 km depth in the mafic plateau. The larger earthquakes in the sequence occurred within the greywacke and schist capping this strong plateau. The high stress drops and strong shaking from

  9. The Accidental Spokesperson - Science Communication during the 2010-2011 Christchurch, NZ Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Furlong, K. P.

    2015-12-01

    Beginning September 4, 2010, with a Mw 7.1 earthquake, a multi-year earthquake sequence changed life in Canterbury NZ. Information communicated by a core group of university-based earthquake scientists provided accessible information to the general public, the press, and policy makers. Although at the start of this prolonged sequence, no one anticipated its longevity nor its impact, this initial (and largest) event did catalyze a demand from the public and policy makers for information and led to some important lessons in how to communicate science to a broad audience as an event unfolds and when it is personally important to the general public. Earthquakes are neither new nor rare to New Zealand, but the Christchurch area was seen as likely suffering only from the far-field effects of a major earthquake on the Alpine Fault or Marlborough fault system. Policy makers had planned and expected that another city such as Wellington would be where they would need to respond. As a visiting faculty at the University of Canterbury, with expertise in earthquake science, I was entrained and engaged in the response - both the scientific and communication aspects. It soon became clear that formal press releases and statements from government ministries and agencies did little to address the questions and uncertainties that the public, the press, and even the policy makers had. Rather, a series of public lectures, broad ranging discussions with the media (both print and radio/television), and OpEd pieces provided by this small group of earthquake focused faculty at the University of Canterbury provided the background information, best estimates of what could occur in the future, and why Earth was acting as it was. This filled a critical gap in science information going to the public, and helped build a level of trust in the public that became critically needed after the situation escalated with subsequent damaging events through early-mid 2011, and onward.

  10. Using Regional Moment Tensors to Constrain Earthquake Processes following the 2010 Darfield and 2011 Canterbury New Zealand Earthquake Sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herman, M. W.; Furlong, K. P.; Herrmann, R. B.; Benz, H.

    2011-12-01

    We model regional broadband data from the South Island of New Zealand to determine regional moment tensor solutions for the mainshock and selected aftershocks of the M7.0, 3 September 2011, M6.1, 21 February 2011 and M6.0 13 June 2011 earthquakes that occurred near Christchurch, New Zealand. Arrival time picks from both the local and regional strong motion and broadband data were used to determine preliminary earthquake locations using a previously published South Island velocity model. Rayleigh and Love surface wave dispersion measurements were then made from selected events to refine the velocity model in order to better match the predominantly large regional surface waves. RMT solutions were computed using the procedures of Herrmann et al. (2011). In total, we computed RMT solutions for 82 events in the magnitude range of Mw3.5-7.0. Although the crustal faulting behavior in the region has been argued to reflect a complex interaction of strike slip and thrust faulting, the dominant faulting style in the sequence is right-lateral, strike-slip (75 events), with nodal planes striking west-east to southwest-northeast. There are only five purely reverse mechanisms, at the western end of the sequence, in the vicinity of the Harper Hills blind thrust. The main Mw 7.0 rupture shows both local small-scale stepovers and one larger (~ 5-10 km width) right stepover near 172.40°E. Although we expect normal faulting associated with this larger stepover, during the first month after the main shock we observe only two normal fault mechanisms and 13 strike slip (inferred E-W right-lateral) events in the stepover region, and since that time, the sense of faulting has been dominated by right-lateral, strike-slip events, perhaps indicating a sequence of short E-W fault segments in the region. The February and June 2011 events occurred along the same trend at the eastern end of the sequence, and show similar strike slip mechanisms to the majority of events to the west, but the

  11. TriNet "ShakeMaps": Rapid generation of peak ground motion and intensity maps for earthquakes in southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wald, D.J.; Quitoriano, V.; Heaton, T.H.; Kanamori, H.; Scrivner, C.W.; Worden, C.B.

    1999-01-01

    Rapid (3-5 minutes) generation of maps of instrumental ground-motion and shaking intensity is accomplished through advances in real-time seismographic data acquisition combined with newly developed relationships between recorded ground-motion parameters and expected shaking intensity values. Estimation of shaking over the entire regional extent of southern California is obtained by the spatial interpolation of the measured ground motions with geologically based frequency and amplitude-dependent site corrections. Production of the maps is automatic, triggered by any significant earthquake in southern California. Maps are now made available within several minutes of the earthquake for public and scientific consumption via the World Wide Web; they will be made available with dedicated communications for emergency response agencies and critical users.

  12. Detection and implication of significant temporal b-value variation during earthquake sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gulia, Laura; Tormann, Thessa; Schorlemmer, Danijel; Wiemer, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    Earthquakes tend to cluster in space and time and periods of increased seismic activity are also periods of increased seismic hazard. Forecasting models currently used in statistical seismology and in Operational Earthquake Forecasting (e.g. ETAS) consider the spatial and temporal changes in the activity rates whilst the spatio-temporal changes in the earthquake size distribution, the b-value, are not included. Laboratory experiments on rock samples show an increasing relative proportion of larger events as the system approaches failure, and a sudden reversal of this trend after the main event. The increasing fraction of larger events during the stress increase period can be mathematically represented by a systematic b-value decrease, while the b-value increases immediately following the stress release. We investigate whether these lab-scale observations also apply to natural earthquake sequences and can help to improve our understanding of the physical processes generating damaging earthquakes. A number of large events nucleated in low b-value regions and spatial b-value variations have been extensively documented in the past. Detecting temporal b-value evolution with confidence is more difficult, one reason being the very different scales that have been suggested for a precursory drop in b-value, from a few days to decadal scale gradients. We demonstrate with the results of detailed case studies of the 2009 M6.3 L'Aquila and 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquakes that significant and meaningful temporal b-value variability can be detected throughout the sequences, which e.g. suggests that foreshock probabilities are not generic but subject to significant spatio-temporal variability. Such potential conclusions require and motivate the systematic study of many sequences to investigate whether general patterns exist that might eventually be useful for time-dependent or even real-time seismic hazard assessment.

  13. Coseismic and postseismic vertical movements associated with the 1940 M7.1 Imperial Valley, California, earthquake

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reilinger, R.

    1984-01-01

    Leveling surveys conducted along two routes that cross the Imperial fault in southern California indicate spatially coherent elevation changes attributable to coseismic and postseismic effects of the 1940, M7.1 Imperial Valley earthquake. The 1931-1941 elevation changes are consistent with theoretical models of vertical deformation of an elastic half space for a finite length strike-slip fault, using fault parameters that are consistent with the observed surface offsets following the 1940 earthquake. The elevation changes suggest an earthquake scenario consisting of a large coeismic slip in the southern half of the fault which transferred stress to the northern part as well as to the Brawley fault to the northeast.

  14. Dynamic deformations and the M6.7, Northridge, California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, J.

    1997-01-01

    A method of estimating the complete time-varying dynamic formation field from commonly available three-component single station seismic data has been developed and applied to study the relationship between dynamic deformation and ground failures and structural damage using observations from the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake. Estimates from throughout the epicentral region indicate that the horizontal strains exceed the vertical ones by more than a factor of two. The largest strains (exceeding ???100 ??strain) correlate with regions of greatest ground failure. There is a poor correlation between structural damage and peak strain amplitudes. The smallest strains, ???35 ??strain, are estimated in regions of no damage or ground failure. Estimates in the two regions with most severe and well mapped permanent deformation, Potrero Canyon and the Granada-Mission Hills regions, exhibit the largest strains; peak horizontal strains estimates in these regions equal ???139 and ???229 ??strain respectively. Of note, the dynamic principal strain axes have strikes consistent with the permanent failure features suggesting that, while gravity, sub-surface materials, and hydrologic conditions undoubtedly played fundamental roles in determining where and what types of failures occurred, the dynamic deformation field may have been favorably sized and oriented to initiate failure processes. These results support other studies that conclude that the permanent deformation resulted from ground shaking, rather than from static strains associated with primary or secondary faulting. They also suggest that such an analysis, either using data or theoretical calculations, may enable observations of paleo-ground failure to be used as quantitative constraints on the size and geometry of previous earthquakes. ?? 1997 Elsevier Science Limited.

  15. Stability and uncertainty of finite-fault slip inversions: Application to the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hartzell, S.; Liu, P.; Mendoza, C.; Ji, C.; Larson, K.M.

    2007-01-01

    The 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake is used to investigate stability and uncertainty aspects of the finite-fault slip inversion problem with different a priori model assumptions. We utilize records from 54 strong ground motion stations and 13 continuous, 1-Hz sampled, geodetic instruments. Two inversion procedures are compared: a linear least-squares subfault-based methodology and a nonlinear global search algorithm. These two methods encompass a wide range of the different approaches that have been used to solve the finite-fault slip inversion problem. For the Parkfield earthquake and the inversion of velocity or displacement waveforms, near-surface related site response (top 100 m, frequencies above 1 Hz) is shown to not significantly affect the solution. Results are also insensitive to selection of slip rate functions with similar duration and to subfault size if proper stabilizing constraints are used. The linear and nonlinear formulations yield consistent results when the same limitations in model parameters are in place and the same inversion norm is used. However, the solution is sensitive to the choice of inversion norm, the bounds on model parameters, such as rake and rupture velocity, and the size of the model fault plane. The geodetic data set for Parkfield gives a slip distribution different from that of the strong-motion data, which may be due to the spatial limitation of the geodetic stations and the bandlimited nature of the strong-motion data. Cross validation and the bootstrap method are used to set limits on the upper bound for rupture velocity and to derive mean slip models and standard deviations in model parameters. This analysis shows that slip on the northwestern half of the Parkfield rupture plane from the inversion of strong-motion data is model dependent and has a greater uncertainty than slip near the hypocenter.

  16. Brief Communication: Earthquake sequencing: analysis of time series constructed from the Markov chain model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cavers, M. S.; Vasudevan, K.

    2015-10-01

    Directed graph representation of a Markov chain model to study global earthquake sequencing leads to a time series of state-to-state transition probabilities that includes the spatio-temporally linked recurrent events in the record-breaking sense. A state refers to a configuration comprised of zones with either the occurrence or non-occurrence of an earthquake in each zone in a pre-determined time interval. Since the time series is derived from non-linear and non-stationary earthquake sequencing, we use known analysis methods to glean new information. We apply decomposition procedures such as ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to study the state-to-state fluctuations in each of the intrinsic mode functions. We subject the intrinsic mode functions, derived from the time series using the EEMD, to a detailed analysis to draw information content of the time series. Also, we investigate the influence of random noise on the data-driven state-to-state transition probabilities. We consider a second aspect of earthquake sequencing that is closely tied to its time-correlative behaviour. Here, we extend the Fano factor and Allan factor analysis to the time series of state-to-state transition frequencies of a Markov chain. Our results support not only the usefulness of the intrinsic mode functions in understanding the time series but also the presence of power-law behaviour exemplified by the Fano factor and the Allan factor.

  17. Moment tensor analysis of the Central Italy Earthquake Sequence of September-October 1997

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ekström, Göran; Morelli, Andrea; Boschi, Enzo; Dziewonski, Adam M.

    The larger earthquakes in the Umbria-Marche (central Italy) seismic sequence of September-October 1997 are analyzed using long-period seismograms from the Mediterranean seismographic network (MedNet) and additional data from the global seismographic network (GSN). We modify the Harvard centroid-moment tensor (CMT) algorithm to allow moment tensor inversion of long-period waveforms, primarily Rayleigh and Love waves, for small earthquakes at local to regional distances (Δ<15°). For the three largest earthquakes (MW>5.5) in the sequence, moment tensors have previously been determined using teleseismic waveforms and standard methods of analysis; our results agree well with those of earlier studies. We determine additional moment tensors for the largest foreshock and 10 aftershocks with MW>4.2. The earthquakes are characterized by normal faulting mechanisms, with a NE-SW tension axis, and the presumed fault plane dips towards the SW. Only one of the fourteen events studied has a different faulting geometry, indicating instead right-lateral strike-slip faulting on a plane oriented approximately E-W, or left-lateral faulting on a plane oriented N-S. The September 26 mainshock (09:40 UT) accounts for only approximately ˜50% of the total moment release in the sequence.

  18. Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Small Business Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.; Wein, Anne M.

    2008-01-01

    The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report contains an exposure and sensitivity analysis of small businesses in terms of labor and employment statistics. Exposure is measured as the absolute counts of labor market variables anticipated to experience each level of Instrumental Intensity (a proxy measure of damage). Sensitivity is the percentage of the exposure of each business establishment size category to each Instrumental Intensity level. The analysis concerns the direct effect of the earthquake on small businesses. The analysis is inspired by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that analyzed the labor market losses (exposure) of a M6.9 earthquake on the Hayward fault by overlaying geocoded labor market data on Instrumental Intensity values. The method used here is influenced by the ZIP-code-level data provided by the California Employment Development Department (CA EDD), which requires the assignment of Instrumental Intensities to ZIP codes. The ZIP-code-level labor market data includes the number of business establishments, employees, and quarterly payroll categorized by business establishment size.

  19. Generalized Omori-Utsu law for aftershock sequences in southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidsen, J.; Gu, C.; Baiesi, M.

    2015-05-01

    We investigate the validity of a proposed generalized Omori-Utsu law for the aftershock sequences for the Landers, Hector Mine, Northridge and Superstition Hills earthquakes, the four largest events in the southern California catalogue we analyse. This law unifies three of the most prominent empirical laws of statistical seismology-the Gutenberg-Richter law, the Omori-Utsu law, and a generalized version of Båth's law-in a formula casting the parameters in the Omori-Utsu law as a function of the lower magnitude cutoff mc for the aftershocks considered. By applying a recently established general procedure for identifying aftershocks, we confirm that the generalized Omori-Utsu law provides a good approximation for the observed rates overall. In particular, we provide convincing evidence that the characteristic time c is not constant but a genuine function of mc, which cannot be attributed to short-term aftershock incompleteness. However, the estimation of the specific parameters is somewhat sensitive to the aftershock selection method used. This includes c(mc), which has important implications for inferring the underlying stress field.

  20. Numerical simulation of earthquake rupture sequences on the Manila thrust fault: Effects of seamount subduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, H.; Liu, Y.; Ning, J.; He, C.; Zhang, L.

    2015-12-01

    The Manila subduction zone is located at the convergent boundary between the Philippine Sea Plate and the Sunda/Eurasian Plate from offshore Taiwan to northern Luzon of Philippines, where only infrequent M7 earthquakes were observed in modern seismological instrumentation history. The lack of great events (M8+) indicates the subduction fault is either aseismically slipping or is accumulating strain energy toward rapid release in a great earthquake. Here we conduct numerical simulations of earthquake rupture sequences in the framework of rate-state-friction along the 15-19.5ºN segment of the 3D plate boundary with subducted seamounts. Rate-state frictional properties are constrained by laboratory friction experiments conducted on IODP Expedition 349, South China Sea (SCS), drilling samples from the basaltic basement rock under 100ºC - 600ºC, effective normal stress of 50 MPa and pore pressure of 100 MPa. During the modeled 2000-year period, the maximum magnitude of earthquakes is Mw7. Each sequence repeats every ~200 years and is consisted of three sub-events, event 1 (Mw7) that can overcome the barrier, where dip angle changes most rapidly along the strike, to rupture the entire fault. Events 2 (Mw 6.4) and 3 (Mw 5.7) are of smaller magnitudes and result in north-south segmented rupture pattern. We further quantify the potential of earthquake nucleation by the S-ratio (lower S ratio means the initial stress is closer to peak strength, hence more likely to nucleate an earthquake). The subducted seamount shows higher S-ratios than its surroundings mostly, implying an unlikely nucleate area. Our results are qualitatively similar to 2D subduction earthquake modeling by Herrendörfer et al. (2015, 2-3 events per supercycle and median long-term S is 0.5-1). Finally, we plan to use our coseismic rupture model results as inputs for a tsunami propagation model in SCS. Compared to the kinematic seafloor deformation input, our physics-based earthquake source model and its

  1. Earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shedlock, Kaye M.; Pakiser, Louis Charles

    1998-01-01

    One of the most frightening and destructive phenomena of nature is a severe earthquake and its terrible aftereffects. An earthquake is a sudden movement of the Earth, caused by the abrupt release of strain that has accumulated over a long time. For hundreds of millions of years, the forces of plate tectonics have shaped the Earth as the huge plates that form the Earth's surface slowly move over, under, and past each other. Sometimes the movement is gradual. At other times, the plates are locked together, unable to release the accumulating energy. When the accumulated energy grows strong enough, the plates break free. If the earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause many deaths and injuries and extensive property damage. Today we are challenging the assumption that earthquakes must present an uncontrollable and unpredictable hazard to life and property. Scientists have begun to estimate the locations and likelihoods of future damaging earthquakes. Sites of greatest hazard are being identified, and definite progress is being made in designing structures that will withstand the effects of earthquakes.

  2. Spatial and Temporal Stress Drop Variations of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miyake, H.

    2013-12-01

    The 2011 Tohoku earthquake sequence consists of foreshocks, mainshock, aftershocks, and repeating earthquakes. To quantify spatial and temporal stress drop variations is important for understanding M9-class megathrust earthquakes. Variability and spatial and temporal pattern of stress drop is a basic information for rupture dynamics as well as useful to source modeling. As pointed in the ground motion prediction equations by Campbell and Bozorgnia [2008, Earthquake Spectra], mainshock-aftershock pairs often provide significant decrease of stress drop. We here focus strong motion records before and after the Tohoku earthquake, and analyze source spectral ratios considering azimuth- and distance dependency [Miyake et al., 2001, GRL]. Due to the limitation of station locations on land, spatial and temporal stress drop variations are estimated by adjusting shifts from the omega-squared source spectral model. The adjustment is based on the stochastic Green's function simulations of source spectra considering azimuth- and distance dependency. We assumed the same Green's functions for event pairs for each station, both the propagation path and site amplification effects are cancelled out. Precise studies of spatial and temporal stress drop variations have been performed [e.g., Allmann and Shearer, 2007, JGR], this study targets the relations between stress drop vs. progression of slow slip prior to the Tohoku earthquake by Kato et al. [2012, Science] and plate structures. Acknowledgement: This study is partly supported by ERI Joint Research (2013-B-05). We used the JMA unified earthquake catalogue and K-NET, KiK-net, and F-net data provided by NIED.

  3. Moving Mountains and Deep Crustal Earthquakes: Evidence for Deep Magma Injection Beneath Lake Tahoe, Nevada-California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blewitt, G.; Smith, K. D.; von Seggern, D.

    2004-12-01

    We recently reported [Smith et al., Science 305, 2004] an unusually deep swarm of 1611 earthquakes that occurred in late 2003 at Lake Tahoe, California (depth 29-33 kilometer; Richter Magnitude [ML] < 2.2; sum of the moment magnitude of all events is Mw 3.1). This swarm was coeval with a GPS transient displacement of 6 ± 0.3 mm horizontally outward from the swarm and 7.9 ± 1.0 mm upward measured at the GPS station on Slide Mountain, Nevada (SLID) 18 km to the northeast. Station SLID is a part of the 53-station Basin and Range Geodetic Network (BARGEN) network, continuously operating since 1996 and one of the PBO Nucleus stations. Here we focus on the results of the geodetic analysis for SLID, and other BARGEN stations within 200 km of SLID, starting on 1 January 2000. The SLID transient displacement is 9.8 mm in a direction normal to the planar structure defined by the deep earthquake swarm, spanning the same time period of the swarm. The geodetic displacement here is too large to be explained by the elastic strain from the cumulative seismic moment of the sequence, suggesting an aseismic forcing mechanism. Aspects of the swarm and SLID displacements are consistent with lower-crustal magma injection under Lake Tahoe. During the first 23 days of the swarm, hypocentral depths migrated at a rate of 2.4 millimeters/second up-dip along a 40-km2 structure striking N30° W and dipping 50° to the northeast. Assuming a stress drop of 10 MPa (reasonable for upper crustal earthquakes), this event has an equivalent seismic moment to a magnitude (Mw) 6.0 earthquake with a displacement of ~1 meter at the source. Applying Okada's model for a tensile crack at 28 km depth in the source region, a potency equivalent to a volume of 3.7 × 107 m3, or volumetric moment equivalent of Mw 6.4, fits the SLID observations. As there is no established evidence of recent volcanism (<1 Ma) in the Tahoe region, this discovery suggests the hypothesis that such deep magmatic events in

  4. Anomalous power law distribution of total lifetimes of branching processes: Application to earthquake aftershock sequences

    SciTech Connect

    Saichev, A.; Sornette, D.

    2004-10-01

    We consider a general stochastic branching process, which is relevant to earthquakes, and study the distributions of global lifetimes of the branching processes. In the earthquake context, this amounts to the distribution of the total durations of aftershock sequences including aftershocks of arbitrary generation number. Our results extend previous results on the distribution of the total number of offspring (direct and indirect aftershocks in seismicity) and of the total number of generations before extinction. We consider a branching model of triggered seismicity, the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, which assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes ('aftershocks'). An aftershock sequence results in this model from the cascade of aftershocks of each past earthquake. Due to the large fluctuations of the number of aftershocks triggered directly by any earthquake ('productivity' or 'fertility'), there is a large variability of the total number of aftershocks from one sequence to another, for the same mainshock magnitude. We study the regime where the distribution of fertilities {mu} is characterized by a power law {approx}1/{mu}{sup 1+{gamma}} and the bare Omori law for the memory of previous triggering mothers decays slowly as {approx}1/t{sup 1+{theta}}, with 0<{theta}<1 relevant for earthquakes. Using the tool of generating probability functions and a quasistatic approximation which is shown to be exact asymptotically for large durations, we show that the density distribution of total aftershock lifetimes scales as {approx}1/t{sup 1+{theta}}{sup sol{gamma}} when the average branching ratio is critical (n=1). The coefficient 1<{gamma}=b/{alpha}<2 quantifies the interplay between the exponent b{approx_equal}1 of the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution {approx}10{sup -bm} and the increase {approx}10{sup {alpha}}{sup m} of the number of aftershocks with mainshock magnitude m (productivity), with 0.5<{alpha}<1. The renormalization of the

  5. Multiscale approach to the predictability of earthquakes and of synthetic SOC sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peresan, A.; Panza, G. F.

    2003-04-01

    The power-law scaling expressed by the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law is the main argument in favour of the Self-Organised Criticality (SOC) of seismic phenomena. Nevertheless the limits of validity of the GR law and the phenomenology reproduced by the SOC models, as well as their consequences for earthquake predictability, still remain quite undefined. According to the Multiscale Seismicity (MS) model, the GR law describes adequately only the ensemble of earthquakes that are geometrically small with respect to the dimensions of the analysed region. The MS model and its implications for intermediate-term medium-range earthquake predictions are thus examined, considering both the seismicity observed in the Italian territory and the synthetic sequences of events generated by a SOC model. The predictability of the large events is evaluated by means of the algorithms CN and M8, based on a quantitative analysis of the seismic flow within a delimited region, which allow for the prediction of the earthquakes with magnitude greater than a fixed threshold Mo. Considering the application of CN and M8 to the Italian territory, we show that, in agreement with the MS model, these algorithms make use of the information carried by small and moderate earthquakes, following the GR law, to predict the strong earthquakes, which are infrequent and often arbitrarily considered characteristic events inside the regions delimited for prediction purposes. Similarly, the application of the algorithm CN for the prediction of the largest events in the synthetic SOC sequences, indicates that a certain predictability can be attained, when the MS model is taken into account. These results suggest that the similarity between the seismic flow and the SOC sequences goes beyond the average features of scale-invariance. In fact, while the GR law describes an average feature of seismicity, CN algorithm is checking for the deviations from such trend, which may characterise the sequence of events before the

  6. Anomalous power law distribution of total lifetimes of branching processes: application to earthquake aftershock sequences.

    PubMed

    Saichev, A; Sornette, D

    2004-10-01

    We consider a general stochastic branching process, which is relevant to earthquakes, and study the distributions of global lifetimes of the branching processes. In the earthquake context, this amounts to the distribution of the total durations of aftershock sequences including aftershocks of arbitrary generation number. Our results extend previous results on the distribution of the total number of offspring (direct and indirect aftershocks in seismicity) and of the total number of generations before extinction. We consider a branching model of triggered seismicity, the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, which assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes ("aftershocks"). An aftershock sequence results in this model from the cascade of aftershocks of each past earthquake. Due to the large fluctuations of the number of aftershocks triggered directly by any earthquake ("productivity" or "fertility"), there is a large variability of the total number of aftershocks from one sequence to another, for the same mainshock magnitude. We study the regime where the distribution of fertilities mu is characterized by a power law approximately 1/ mu(1+gamma) and the bare Omori law for the memory of previous triggering mothers decays slowly as approximately 1/ t(1+theta;) , with 0earthquakes. Using the tool of generating probability functions and a quasistatic approximation which is shown to be exact asymptotically for large durations, we show that the density distribution of total aftershock lifetimes scales as approximately 1/ t(1+theta;/gamma) when the average branching ratio is critical (n=1) . The coefficient 1

  7. Assessment of Creep Events as Potential Earthquake Precursors: Application to the Creeping Section of the San Andreas Fault, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thurber, C.; Sessions, R.

    We report the analysis of over 16 years of fault creep and seismicity data from part of the creeping section of the San Andreas fault to examine and assess the temporal association between creep events and subsequent earthquakes. The goal is to make a long-term evaluation of creep events as a potential earthquake precursor. We constructed a catalog of creep events from available digital creepmeter data and compared it to a declustered seismicity catalog for the area between San Juan Bautista and San Benito, California, for 1980 to 1996. For magnitude thresholds of 3.8 and above and time windows of 5 to 10 days, we find relatively high success rates (40% to 55% 'hits') but also very high false alarm rates (generally above 90%). These success rates are statistically significant (0.0007 < P < 0.04). We also tested the actual creep event catalog against two different types of synthetic seismicity catalogs, and found that creep events are followed closely in time by earthquakes from the real catalog far more frequently than the average for the synthetic catalogs, generally by more than two standard deviations. We find no identifiable spatial pattern between the creep events and earthquakes that are hit or missed. We conclude that there is a significant temporal correlation between creep events and subsequent small to moderate earthquakes, however that additional information (such as from other potential precursory phenomena) is required to reduce the false alarm rate to an acceptable level.

  8. Remotely triggered microearthquakes and tremor in central California following the 2010 Mw 8.8 Chile earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peng, Zhigang; Hill, David P.; Shelly, David R.; Aiken, Chastity

    2010-01-01

    We examine remotely triggered microearthquakes and tectonic tremor in central California following the 2010 Mw 8.8 Chile earthquake. Several microearthquakes near the Coso Geothermal Field were apparently triggered, with the largest earthquake (Ml 3.5) occurring during the large-amplitude Love surface waves. The Chile mainshock also triggered numerous tremor bursts near the Parkfield-Cholame section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF). The locally triggered tremor bursts are partially masked at lower frequencies by the regionally triggered earthquake signals from Coso, but can be identified by applying high-pass or matched filters. Both triggered tremor along the SAF and the Ml 3.5 earthquake in Coso are consistent with frictional failure at different depths on critically-stressed faults under the Coulomb failure criteria. The triggered tremor, however, appears to be more phase-correlated with the surface waves than the triggered earthquakes, likely reflecting differences in constitutive properties between the brittle, seismogenic crust and the underlying lower crust.

  9. Fault tectonics and earthquake hazards in the Peninsular Ranges, Southern California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Merifield, P. M.; Lamar, D. L. (Principal Investigator)

    1974-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS and Skylab images reveal a number of prominent lineaments in the basement terrane of the Peninsular Ranges, Southern California. The major, well-known, active, northwest trending, right-slip faults are well displayed, but northeast and west to west-northwest trending lineaments are also present. Study of large-scale airphotos followed by field investigations have shown that several of these lineaments represent previously unmapped faults. Pitches of striations on shear surfaces of the northeast and west trending faults indicate oblique-slip movement; data are insufficient to determine the net-slip. These faults are restricted to the pre-Tertiary basement terrane and are truncated by the major northwest trending faults; therefore, they may have formed in response to an earlier stress system. Future work should be directed toward determining whether the northeast and west trending faults are related to the presently active stress system or to an older inactive system, because this question relates to the earthquake risk in the vicinity of these faults.

  10. Cruise report for A1-02-SC southern California CABRILLO project, Earthquake Hazards Task

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Normark, William R.; Fisher, Michael A.; Gutmacher, Christina E.; Sliter, Ray; Hibbeler, Lori; Feingold, Beth; Reid, Jane A.

    2003-01-01

    A two-week marine geophysical survey obtained sidescan-sonar images and multiple sets of high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles in the southern California offshore area between Point Arguello and Point Dume. The data were obtained to support two project activities of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology (CMG) Program: (1) the evaluation of the geologic hazards posed by earthquake faults and landslides in the offshore areas of Santa Barbara Channel and western Santa Monica Basin and (2) determine the location of active hydrocarbon seeps in the vicinity of Point Conception as part of a collaborative study with the Minerals Management Service (MMS). The 2002 cruise, A1-02- SC, is the fourth major data-collection effort in support of the first objective (Normark et al., 1999a, b; Gutmacher et al., 2000). A cruise to obtain sediment cores to constrain the timing of deformation interpreted from the geophysical records is planned for the summer of 2003.

  11. Observations of earthquake source parameters at 2 km depth in the Long Valley Caldera, eastern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Prejean, Stephanie G.; Ellsworth, William L.

    2001-01-01

    To investigate seismic source parameter scaling and seismic efficiency in the Long Valley caldera, California, we measured source parameters for 41 earthquakes (M 0.5 to M 5) recorded at 2 km depth in the Long Valley Exploratory Well. Borehole recordings provide a wide frequency bandwidth, typically 1 to 200–300 Hz, and greatly reduce seismic noise and path effects compared to surface recordings. We calculated source parameters in both the time and frequency domains for P and S waves. At frequencies above the corner frequency, spectra decay faster than ω3, indicating that attenuation plays an important role in shaping the spectra (path averaged Qp = 100–400, Qs = 200–800). Source parameters are corrected for attenuation and radiation pattern. Both static stress drops and apparent stresses range from approximately 0.01 to 30 MPa. Although static stress drops do not vary with seismic moment for these data, our analyses are consistent with apparent stress increasing with increasing moment. To estimate tectonic driving stress and seismic efficiencies in the region, we combined source parameter measurements with knowledge of the stress field and a Coulomb failure criterion to infer a driving stress of 40–70 MPa. Subsequent seismic efficiencies are consistent with McGarr's (1999) hypothesis of a maximum seismic efficiency of 6%.

  12. Evidence for dyke intrusion earthquake mechanisms near long valley caldera, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Julian, B.R.

    1983-01-01

    A re-analysis of the magnitude 6 earthquakes that occurred near Long Valley caldera in eastern California on 25 and 27 May 1980, suggests that at least two of them, including the largest, were probably caused by fluid injection along nearly vertical surfaces and not by slip on faults. Several investigators 1,2 have reported difficulty in explaining both the long-period surface-wave amplitudes and phases and the locally recorded short-period body-wave first motions from these events, using conventional double-couple (shear fault) source models. They attributed this difficulty to: (1) complex sources, not representable by single-fault models; (2) artefacts of the analysis methods used; or (3) effects of wave propagation through hypothetical structures beneath the caldera. We show here that the data agree well with the predictions for a compensated linear-vector dipole (CLVD) equivalent-force system3 with its principal extensional axis horizontal and trending N 55-65?? E. Such a mechanism is what would be expected for fluid injection into dykes striking N 25-35?? W, which is the approximate strike of numerous normal faults in the area. ?? 1983 Nature Publishing Group.

  13. Geophysical setting of the 2000 ML 5.2 Yountville, California, earthquake: Implications for seismic Hazard in Napa Valley, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langenheim, V.E.; Graymer, R.W.; Jachens, R.C.

    2006-01-01

    The epicenter of the 2000 ML 5.2 Yountville earthquake was located 5 km west of the surface trace of the West Napa fault, as defined by Helley and Herd (1977). On the basis of the re-examination of geologic data and the analysis of potential field data, the earthquake occurred on a strand of the West Napa fault, the main basin-bounding fault along the west side of Napa Valley. Linear aeromagnetic anomalies and a prominent gravity gradient extend the length of the fault to the latitude of Calistoga, suggesting that this fault may be capable of larger-magnitude earthquakes. Gravity data indicate an ???2-km-deep basin centered on the town of Napa, where damage was concentrated during the Yountville earthquake. It most likely played a minor role in enhancing shaking during this event but may lead to enhanced shaking caused by wave trapping during a larger-magnitude earthquake.

  14. Earthquake sequence in East Vrancea crustal region (Romania): source characteristics and seismotectonics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popescu, Emilia; Borleanu, Felix; Otilia Placinta, Anica; Popa, Mihaela; Radulian, Mircea; Moldovan, Iren Adelina

    2016-04-01

    The goal of the paper is to investigate the crustal earthquake sequence generated in the East Vrancea crustal zone at the end of 2014 (22 November 2014). The main shock, occurred on 22 November 2014, 19:14 (45.860N, 27.160E, h = 39 km, ML = 5.7), is the greatest instrumentally recorded earthquake produced in this region. The aftershocks are unusually small for the sequences characterizing the Vrancea foredeep area (around 200 events with magnitude below 2). The largest aftershocks were recorded on 7 December 2015 (ML = 4.4) and 19 January 2015 (ML = 3.8). We apply cross-correlation analysis together with empirical Green's function (EGF) deconvolution and spectral ratios techniques to optimise the source parameters determination. At the same time we applied inversion techniques to retrieve the moment tensor solution for the largest shocks. For EGF and spectral ratios applications, we associated to the main event many co-located aftershocks (2.0 ≤ ML ≤ 4.4), selected according to the requirements for empirical Green's functions. The source parameters are estimated as mean values for all the available earthquake pairs. Source scaling properties and focal mechanism are investigated and discussed in terms of the regional seismotectonics and comparatively with the source scaling relationships for the Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes.

  15. Changes in the discharge characteristics of thermal springs and fumaroles in the Long Valley Caldera, California, resulting from earthquakes on May 25-27, 1980

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sorey, M.L.; Clark, Mark D.

    1981-01-01

    Changes in flow rate and turbidity have been observed and measured in hot springs in the Long Valley caldera, California, following earthquakes with magnitudes up to 6.3 in May 1980. Increases in flow rate of some hot springs occurred within minutes of the earthquakes, followed by more gradual decreases in flow rate to pre-earthquake levels. Spring temperatures and chemistries also show no long-term variations following earthquakes. Transient changes in discharge characteristics of the hot springs appear to result from increases in the permeability of fault conduits transmitting the hot water to the surface. (USGS)

  16. Comparison Study between North Texas Earthquake Sequences from 2008-2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeShon, H. R.; Hayward, C.; Scales, M. M.; Magnani, M. B.; Hornbach, M. J.; Stump, B. W.

    2015-12-01

    High-resolution earthquake locations and fault plane solutions are combined with information on subsurface geology, fault structure, well data, and 3D pore pressure modeling to provide further insight into the relationship between fluid migration at depth and modern seismicity in North Texas. Since 2008, the USGS has reported over 165 felt earthquakes in the Fort Worth (Barnett Shale) Basin located in northern Texas. Five earthquake sequences warranted deployment of local seismic networks, and there are currently 30+ temporary seismic stations operating in the basin. Event size has increased over time. The 2008/2012 DFW Airport and 2009 Cleburne sequences had maximum event magnitudes of 3.3 and 2.8, respectively. The 2013/2014 Azle-Reno and 2014/2015 Irving-Dallas swarms contain multiple M3.5 earthquakes, and the M4.0 May 2015 Venus earthquake is the largest event recorded to date. Causative faults strike NNE-SSW to NE-SW and are associated with normal faulting, consistent with fault reactivation in the current stress regime. The active faults range from 2-5 km in length, are steeply dipping (45-70º) and can dip to the SE (DFW Airport; Irving-Dallas) or NW (Azle-Reno; Venus). Events occur between 2-6 km depth in the DFW, Cleburne, and Venus sequences but extend to 8 km in the Irving-Dallas and Azle-Reno earthquake swarms. These depths are consistent with reactivation of ancient faults located in the basement granites and/or overlying sedimentary units. The top of the Ordovician Ellenburger group, which serves as a wastewater injection unit in the basin, ranges from 1.4-2.7 km depth across the seismogenic area, is ~1 km thick on average, and generally overlies the Precambrian basement. The DFW Airport, Cleburne, and Azle-Reno sequences have been linked to nearby wastewater injection and/or production activity associated with shale gas extraction. Causal studies of the 2014/2015 Irving-Dallas and 2015 Venus sequences are ongoing and will be updated here.

  17. Multifrequential periodogram analysis of earthquake occurrence: An alternative approach to the Schuster spectrum, with two examples in central California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dutilleul, Pierre; Johnson, Christopher W.; Bürgmann, Roland; Wan, Yongge; Shen, Zheng-Kang

    2015-12-01

    Periodic earthquake occurrences may reflect links with semidiurnal to multiyear tides, seasonal hydrological loads, and ~14 month pole tide forcing. The Schuster spectrum is a recent extension of Schuster's traditional test for periodicity analysis in seismology. We present an alternative approach: the multifrequential periodogram analysis (MFPA), performed on time series of monthly earthquake numbers. We explore if seismicity in two central California regions, the Central San Andreas Fault near Parkfield (CSAF-PKD) and the Sierra Nevada-Eastern California Shear Zone (SN-ECSZ), exhibits periodic behavior at periods of 2 months to several years. Original and declustered catalogs spanning up to 26 years were analyzed with both methods. For CSAF-PKD, the MFPA resolves ~1 year periodicities, with additional statistically significant periods of ~6 and ~4 months; for SN-ECSZ, it finds a strong ~14 month periodic component. Unlike the Schuster spectrum, the MFPA has an exact modified statistic at non-Fourier frequencies. Informed by the MFPA period estimates, trigonometric models with periods of 12, 6, and 4 months (Model 1) and 14.24 and 12 months (Model 2) were fitted to time series of earthquake numbers. For CSAF-PKD, Model 1 shows a peak annual earthquake occurrence during August-November and a secondary peak in April. Similar peaks, or troughs, are found in annual and semiannual components of pole tide and tide-induced stress model time series and fault normal-stress reduction from seasonal hydrological unloading. For SN-ECSZ, the dominant ~14 month periodicity prevents regular annual peaking, and Model 2 provides a better fit (ΔR>¯adjusted2: 2.4%). This new MFPA application resolves several periodicities in earthquake catalogs that reveal external periodic forcing.

  18. Fault fragment control in the 1997 Umbria-Marche, central Italy, Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meghraoui, Mustapha; Bosi, Vittorio; Camelbeeck, Thierry

    The Umbria-Marche region in central Italy experienced a sequence of shallow earthquakes in late 1997, including three mainshocks on September 26th (Ms 5.5 and 5.9) and October 14th (Ms 5.5). This seismic sequence illustrates the relationships between small-scale active faults and moderate-magnitude earthquakes. We suggest that a small-scale active fault corresponds to a “fault fragment” and that it refers to the fault area required for producing a coseismic deformation at the ground surface. The seismic activity and related three mainshocks occurred along three fault fragments which total ∼25 km in length and show a listric geometry at depth. Fault fragments are laterally controlled by pre-existing transverse fold-and-thrust structures and may constitute a major component of the seismic strain release in active continental regions.

  19. The 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence: Environmental effects, seismic triggering thresholds and geologic legacy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quigley, Mark C.; Hughes, Matthew W.; Bradley, Brendon A.; van Ballegooy, Sjoerd; Reid, Catherine; Morgenroth, Justin; Horton, Travis; Duffy, Brendan; Pettinga, Jarg R.

    2016-03-01

    Seismic shaking and tectonic deformation during strong earthquakes can trigger widespread environmental effects. The severity and extent of a given effect relates to the characteristics of the causative earthquake and the intrinsic properties of the affected media. Documentation of earthquake environmental effects in well-instrumented, historical earthquakes can enable seismologic triggering thresholds to be estimated across a spectrum of geologic, topographic and hydrologic site conditions, and implemented into seismic hazard assessments, geotechnical engineering designs, palaeoseismic interpretations, and forecasts of the impacts of future earthquakes. The 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES), including the moment magnitude (Mw) 7.1 Darfield earthquake and Mw 6.2, 6.0, 5.9, and 5.8 aftershocks, occurred on a suite of previously unidentified, primarily blind, active faults in the eastern South Island of New Zealand. The CES is one of Earth's best recorded historical earthquake sequences. The location of the CES proximal to and beneath a major urban centre enabled rapid and detailed collection of vast amounts of field, geospatial, geotechnical, hydrologic, biologic, and seismologic data, and allowed incremental and cumulative environmental responses to seismic forcing to be documented throughout a protracted earthquake sequence. The CES caused multiple instances of tectonic surface deformation (≥ 3 events), surface manifestations of liquefaction (≥ 11 events), lateral spreading (≥ 6 events), rockfall (≥ 6 events), cliff collapse (≥ 3 events), subsidence (≥ 4 events), and hydrological (10s of events) and biological shifts (≥ 3 events). The terrestrial area affected by strong shaking (e.g. peak ground acceleration (PGA) ≥ 0.1-0.3 g), and the maximum distances between earthquake rupture and environmental response (Rrup), both generally increased with increased earthquake Mw, but were also influenced by earthquake location and source

  20. Probabilities of large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay region, California

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-01-01

    This book evaluates long-term probabilities of large earthquakes (magnitude 7 or greater) in the San Francisco Bay region by identifying fault segments expected to produce large earthquakes and then estimating the time to the next earthquake on each segment. The probability of one or more large earthquakes in the region in the coming 30 years is estimated at 67 percent. This report contains detailed, technical descriptions of the data and methods used to derive the estimates.

  1. Estimated ground motion from the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake at the site of interstate 10 and La Cienega Boulevard bridge collapse, West Los Angeles, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boore, D.M.; Gibbs, J.F.; Joyner, W.B.; Tinsley, J.C.; Ponti, D.J.

    2003-01-01

    We have estimated ground motions at the site of a bridge collapse during the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake. The estimated motions are based on correcting motions recorded during the mainshock 2.3 km from the collapse site for the relative site response of the two sites. Shear-wave slownesses and damping based on analysis of borehole measurements at the two sites were used in the site response analysis. We estimate that the motions at the collapse site were probably larger, by factors ranging from 1.2 to 1.6, than at the site at which the ground motion was recorded, for periods less than about 1 sec.

  2. Discrete characteristics of the aftershock sequence of the 2011 Van earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toker, Mustafa

    2014-10-01

    An intraplate earthquake of magnitude Mw 7.2 occurred on a NE-SW trending blind oblique thrust fault in accretionary orogen, the Van region of Eastern Anatolia on October 23, 2011. The aftershock seismicity in the Van earthquake was not continuous but, rather, highly discrete. This shed light on the chaotic nonuniformity of the event distribution and played key roles in determining the seismic coupling between the rupturing process and seismogeneity. I analyzed the discrete statistical mechanics of the 2011 Van mainshock-aftershock sequence with an estimation of the non-dimensional tuning parameters consisting of; temporal clusters (C) and the random (RN) distribution of aftershocks, range of size scales (ROSS), strength change (εD), temperature (T), P-value of temporal decay, material parameter R-value, seismic coupling χ, and Q-value of aftershock distribution. I also investigated the frequency-size (FS), temporal (T) statistics and the sequential characteristics of aftershock dynamics using discrete approach and examined the discrete evolutionary periods of the Van earthquake Gutenberg-Richter (GR) distribution. My study revealed that the FS and T statistical properties of aftershock sequence represent the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) distribution, clustered (C) in time and random (RN) Poisson distribution, respectively. The overall statistical behavior of the aftershock sequence shows that the Van earthquake originated in a discrete structural framework with high seismic coupling under highly variable faulting conditions. My analyses relate this larger dip-slip event to a discrete seismogenesis with two main components of complex fracturing and branching framework of the ruptured fault and dynamic strengthening and hardening behavior of the earthquake. The results indicate two dynamic cases. The first is associated with aperiodic nature of aftershock distribution, indicating a time-independent Poissonian event. The second is associated with variable slip model

  3. Observations of a hydrofracture induced earthquake sequence in Harrison County Ohio in 2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friberg, P. A.; Brudzinski, M. R.; Currie, B. S.; Skoumal, R.

    2015-12-01

    On October 7, 2014, a Mw 1.9 earthquake was detected and located using the IRIS Earthscope Transportable Array stations in Ohio. The earthquake was located at a depth of ~3 km near the interface of the Paleozoic sedimentary rocks with the crystalline Precambrian basement. The location is within a few kilometers laterally of a 2013 earthquake sequence that was linked to hydraulic fracturing (HF) operations on three wells in Harrison county (Friberg et al, 2014). Using the Mw 1.9 event as a template in a multi-component cross correlation detector on station O53A, over 1000 matching detections were revealed between September 26 - October 17, 2014. These detections were all coincident in time with HF operations on 3 nearby (< 1km away) horizontally drilled wells (Tarbert 1H, 3H, and 5H) in the Utica formation (~2.4 km depth). The HF operations at two of the wells (1H and 5H) were coincident with the majority of the detected events. The final well (3H) stimulated in the series, produced only about 20 identified events. In addition to the coincident timing with nearby HF operations, the time clustered nature of the detections were similar to the 2013 sequence and two other Ohio HF induced sequences in 2014 (Skoumal et al, 2015). All of the other HF induced earthquake sequences in Ohio were related to operations in the Utica formation. Interestingly, this sequence of earthquakes did not follow a simple Gutenberg-Richter magnitude frequency relationship and was deficient in positive magnitude events; the magnitude 1.9 was preceded by a magnitude 1.7, and only a ½ dozen events slightly above magnitude 0.0. The majority of the events detected were below magnitude 0.0, with some as low as magnitude -2.0. While the majority of detections are too small to locate, high similarity in waveform character indicate they are spatially near to the magnitude 1.9 event. Furthermore, gradual shifts in P phase arrival relative to S phases indicate events are moving away from the station

  4. Semi-Periodic Sequences and Extraneous Events in Earthquake Forecasting: I. Theory and Method, Parkfield Application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nava Pichardo, Fidencio Alejandro; Quinteros Cartaya, Claudia Beatriz; Glowacka, Ewa; Frez Cárdenas, José Duglas

    2014-07-01

    We present a new method to identify semi-periodic sequences in the occurrence times of large earthquakes, which allows for the presence of multiple semi-periodic sequences and/or events not belonging to any identifiable sequence in the time series. The method, based on the analytic Fourier transform, yields estimates of the departure from periodicity of an observed sequence, and of the probability that the sequence is not due to chance. These estimates are used to make and to evaluate forecasts of future events belonging to each sequence. Numerous tests with synthetic catalogs show that the method is surprisingly capable of correctly identifying sequences, unidentifiable by eye, in complicated time series. Correct identification of a given sequence depends on the number of events it contains, on the sequence's departure from periodicity, and, in some cases, on the choice of starting and ending times of the analyzed time window; as well as on the total number of events in the time series. Some particular data combinations may result in spectra where significant periods are obscured by large amplitudes artifacts of the transform, but artifacts can be usually recognized because they lack harmonics; thus, in most of these cases, true semi-periodic sequences may not be identified, but no false identifications will be made. A first example of an application of the method to real seismicity data is the analysis of the Parkfield event series. The analysis correctly aftcasts the September 2004 earthquake. Further applications to real data from Japan and Venezuela are shown in a companion paper.

  5. Earthquake warning system for Japan Railways’ bullet train; implications for disaster prevention in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nakamura, Y.; Tucker, B. E.

    1988-01-01

    Today, Japanese society is well aware of the prediction of the Tokai earthquake. It is estimated by the Tokyo earthquake. It is estimated by the Tokyo muncipal government that this predicted earthquake could kill 30,000 people. (this estimate is viewed by many as conservative; other Japanese government agencies have made estimates but they have not been published.) Reduction in the number deaths from 120,000 to 30,000 between the Kanto earthquake and the predicted Tokai earthquake is due in large part to the reduction in the proportion of wooden construction (houses). 

  6. Arrest and recovery of frictional creep on the southern Hayward fault triggered by the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake and implications for future earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanu, Chinaemerem; Johnson, Kaj

    2011-04-01

    Theodolite measurements across the right-lateral Hayward fault, San Francisco Bay, California, show a dramatic reduction in surface creep rate from 5 to 10 mm/yr before the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake to nearly zero creep rate after the earthquake. A ˜6 year period of nearly zero surface creep was followed by sudden fault creep that accumulated about 20-25 mm of right-lateral displacement followed by an eventual return to a steady creep by year ˜2000. This creep behavior can be explained as a result of a sudden shear stress reduction on the fault and is consistent with model predictions for a fault imbedded in an elastic medium with slip governed by laboratory-derived friction laws. We infer friction parameters on the fault using a spring-slider model and a boundary element model with the rate- and state-dependent friction laws. The state (healing) term in the friction law is critical for reproducing the observed evolution of surface creep; a popular simplified rate-dependent friction law is insufficient. Results suggest that the creep event extended to a depth of ˜4-7.5 km. The inferred critical slip distance, dc, is 1-2 orders of magnitude larger than lab values, and inferred aσ values imply low effective fault-normal stresses of 5-30 MPa. This range of effective normal stress and inversion results for (a - b)σ imply very small values for a - b of 10-5 to 10-3, suggesting the fault has nearly velocity-neutral frictional properties. Earthquake simulations with such small a - b values show that creeping areas on the Hayward fault may be capable of rupturing during earthquakes.

  7. Coseismic offsets recorded by borehole strainmeters from the 2014, Mw 6.0 South Napa, California earthquake: Reconciling tidal calibrations with earthquake source models.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Langbein, J. O.

    2015-12-01

    The 24 August 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa, California earthquake produced significant offsets on 12 borehole strainmeters in the San Francisco Bay area. These strainmeters are located between 24 and 80 km from the source and the observed offsets ranged up to 400 parts-per-billion (ppb), which exceeds their nominal precision by a factor of 100. However, the observed offsets in tidally-calibrated strains have RMS deviation of 130 ppb from strains predicted by previously published moment tensor derived from seismic data. Here, I show that the large misfit can be reduced by a combination of better tidal calibration and better modeling of the strain field from the earthquake. Borehole strainmeters require in-situ calibration, which historically has been accomplished by comparing their measurements of Earth tides with the strain-tides predicted by a model. Although borehole strainmeters accurately measure the deformation within the borehole, the long-wavelength strain signals from tides or other tectonic processes recorded in the borehole are modified by the presence of the borehole and the elastic properties of the grout and the instrument. Previous analyses of surface-mounted, strainmeter data and their relationship with the predicted tides suggest that tidal models could be in error by 30%. The poor fit of the borehole strainmeter data from this earthquake can be improved by simultaneously varying the components of the model tides up to 30% and making small adjustments to the point-source model of the earthquake, which reduces the RMS misfit from 130 to 18 ppb. This suggests that calibrations derived solely from tidal models limits the accuracy of borehole strainmeters. On the other hand, the revised calibration derived here becomes testable on strain measurements from future, large Bay area events.

  8. The 2001-present induced earthquake sequence in the Raton Basin of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Benz, Harley M.

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the ongoing seismicity in the Raton Basin and find that the deep injection of wastewater from the coal‐bed methane field is responsible for inducing the majority of the seismicity since 2001. Many lines of evidence indicate that this earthquake sequence was induced by wastewater injection. First, there was a marked increase in seismicity shortly after major fluid injection began in the Raton Basin in 1999. From 1972 through July 2001, there was one M≥4 earthquake in the Raton Basin, whereas 12 occurred between August 2001 and 2013. The statistical likelihood that such a rate change would occur if earthquakes behaved randomly in time is 3.0%. Moreover, this rate change is limited to the area of industrial activity. Earthquake rates remain low in the surrounding area. Second, the vast majority of the seismicity is within 5 km of active disposal wells and is shallow, ranging between 2 and 8 km depth. The two most carefully studied earthquake sequences in 2001 and 2011 have earthquakes within 2 km of high‐volume, high‐injection‐rate wells. Third, injection wells in the area are commonly very high volume and high rate. Two wells adjacent to the August 2011 M 5.3 earthquake injected about 4.9 million cubic meters of wastewater before the earthquake, more than seven times the amount injected at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal well that caused damaging earthquakes near Denver, Colorado, in the 1960s. The August 2011 M 5.3 event is the second‐largest earthquake to date for which there is clear evidence that the earthquake sequence was induced by fluid injection.

  9. Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Intraregional Commuter, Worker, and Earnings Flow Analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.

    2008-01-01

    The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region (Jones and others, 2008). This report uses selected datasets from the U.S. Census Bureau and the State of California's Employment Development Department to develop preliminary estimates of the number and spatial distribution of commuters who cross the San Andreas Fault and to characterize these commuters by the industries in which they work and their total earnings. The analysis concerns the relative exposure of the region's economy to the effects of the earthquake as described by the location, volume, and earnings of those commuters who work in each of the region's economic sectors. It is anticipated that damage to transportation corridors traversing the fault would lead to at least short-term disruptions in the ability of commuters to travel between their places of residence and work.

  10. Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults.

    PubMed

    McGuire, Jeffrey J; Boettcher, Margaret S; Jordan, Thomas H

    2005-03-24

    East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominantly aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion. PMID:15791246

  11. Precursory slow-slip loaded the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borghi, A.; Aoudia, A.; Javed, F.; Barzaghi, R.

    2016-05-01

    Slow-slip events (SSEs) are common at subduction zone faults where large mega earthquakes occur. We report here that one of the best-recorded moderate size continental earthquake, the 2009 April 6 moment magnitude (Mw) 6.3 L'Aquila (Italy) earthquake, was preceded by a 5.9 Mw SSE that originated from the decollement beneath the reactivated normal faulting system. The SSE is identified from a rigorous analysis of continuous GPS stations and occurred on the 12 February and lasted for almost two weeks. It coincided with a burst in the foreshock activity with small repeating earthquakes migrating towards the main-shock hypocentre as well as with a change in the elastic properties of rocks in the fault region. The SSE has caused substantial stress loading at seismogenic depths where the magnitude 4.0 foreshock and Mw 6.3 main shock nucleated. This stress loading is also spatially correlated with the lateral extent of the aftershock sequence.

  12. Southeast Indian Ocean-Ridge Earthquake Sequences from Cross-correlation Analysis of Hydro-acoustic Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yun, S.; Ni, S.; Park, M.

    2006-12-01

    Earthquake sequences (location and timing of foreshocks and aftershocks) are critical for understanding dynamics of mid-ocean ridge and transform faults. Unfortunately whole sequences (including very small earthquakes) in the ocean can not be well recorded by land-based seismometers mostly because of large epicentral distances. Recent hydro-acoustic studies have demonstrated that T waves are very effective in detecting small submarine earthquakes because of little energy loss of T waves propagating in SOFAR channel. For example, a Mw6.2 (03/06/2006, Latitude -40.11, Longitude 78.49) transform earthquake occurred at the Southeastern Indian Ocean Ridge (an intermediate spreading rate ridge, 58-76 mm/year), but NEIC only reports 3 aftershocks in the first following week. We applied progressive multi-channel cross-correlation methods to hydro-acoustic data from the IMS arrays in Indian Ocean to detect the whole earthquake sequence. We also correlate waveform envelopes to accurately locate aftershocks and found consistent pattern of earthquake migration along the transform fault. In contrast to transform fault earthquake sequences at fast spreading ridge (East Pacific Rise, 142 mm/year) where foreshocks are observed, we failed to detect any foreshocks for the Mw6.2 earthquake though we found many aftershocks. The lack of foreshocks may be caused by lower spreading rate (hence lower temperature) or too small scale ridge segmentation. Still the number of aftershocks is much less than that of typical tectonic earthquake such as subduction or continental earthquakes, arguing different fault dynamics for mid ocean ridge systems, perhaps due to higher water content or presence of melt.

  13. Seismic velocity variations along the rupture zone of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, G.; Thurber, C. H.

    2012-09-01

    We revisit the rupture zone of the 1989 Mw6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake, central California, by developing high-resolution three-dimensional (3-D)Vp and Vp/Vs models. We apply the simul2000 inversion method and algorithm to a set of "composite" events, which have greater number of picks per event and reduced random picking errors compared with traditional master events. Our final P-wave velocity model generally agrees with previous studies, showing a high velocity body of above 6.7 km/s in the southeast rupture zone of the main shock. The 3-DVp/Vs model, however, has different features, with low Vp/Vs in the upper crust and high Vp/Vs anomalies in deeper layers of the rupture zone. We interpret the low Vp/Vs at shallow depths to be granitic rocks, whereas at greater depths the areas of higher Vp/Vs(around 1.725-1.75) presumably are mafic rocks. The resulting 3-D velocity model was used to improve absolute locations for all local events between 1984 and 2010 in our study area. We then applied a similar event cluster analysis, waveform cross-correlation, and differential time relocation methods to improve relative event location accuracy. Over 88% of the seismicity falls into similar event clusters. A dramatic sharpening of seismicity patterns is obtained after using these methods. The medians of the relative location uncertainties calculated by using the bootstrap approach are 5 m for horizontal and 8 m for vertical. Differential times from cross-correlation are used to estimatein situnear-sourceVp/Vsratio within each event cluster. The high-resolutionVp/Vs method confirms the trend of the velocity variations from the tomographic results, although absolute values are slightly different.

  14. Seismotectonic framework of the 2010 February 27 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hayes, Gavin P.; Bergman, Eric; Johnson, Kendra J.; Benz, Harley M.; Brown, Lucy; Meltzer, Anne S.

    2013-01-01

    After the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake, an international collaboration involving teams and instruments from Chile, the US, the UK, France and Germany established the International Maule Aftershock Deployment temporary network over the source region of the event to facilitate detailed, open-access studies of the aftershock sequence. Using data from the first 9-months of this deployment, we have analyzed the detailed spatial distribution of over 2500 well-recorded aftershocks. All earthquakes have been relocated using a hypocentral decomposition algorithm to study the details of and uncertainties in both their relative and absolute locations. We have computed regional moment tensor solutions for the largest of these events to produce a catalogue of 465 mechanisms, and have used all of these data to study the spatial distribution of the aftershock sequence with respect to the Chilean megathrust. We refine models of co-seismic slip distribution of the Maule earthquake, and show how small changes in fault geometries assumed in teleseismic finite fault modelling significantly improve fits to regional GPS data, implying that the accuracy of rapid teleseismic fault models can be substantially improved by consideration of existing fault geometry model databases. We interpret all of these data in an integrated seismotectonic framework for the Maule earthquake rupture and its aftershock sequence, and discuss the relationships between co-seismic rupture and aftershock distributions. While the majority of aftershocks are interplate thrust events located away from regions of maximum co-seismic slip, interesting clusters of aftershocks are identified in the lower plate at both ends of the main shock rupture, implying internal deformation of the slab in response to large slip on the plate boundary interface. We also perform Coulomb stress transfer calculations to compare aftershock locations and mechanisms to static stress changes following the Maule rupture. Without the

  15. LLNL-Generated Content for the California Academy of Sciences, Morrison Planetarium Full-Dome Show: Earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Rodgers, A J; Petersson, N A; Morency, C E; Simmons, N A; Sjogreen, B

    2012-01-23

    The California Academy of Sciences (CAS) Morrison Planetarium is producing a 'full-dome' planetarium show on earthquakes and asked LLNL to produce content for the show. Specifically the show features numerical ground motion simulations of the M 7.9 1906 San Francisco and a possible future M 7.05 Hayward fault scenario earthquake. The show also features concepts of plate tectonics and mantle convection using images from LLNL's G3D global seismic tomography. This document describes the data that was provided to the CAS in support of production of the 'Earthquake' show. The CAS is located in Golden Gate Park, San Francisco and hosts over 1.6 million visitors. The Morrison Planetarium, within the CAS, is the largest all digital planetarium in the world. It features a 75-foot diameter spherical section projection screen tilted at a 30-degree angle. Six projectors cover the entire field of view and give a three-dimensional immersive experience. CAS shows strive to use scientifically accurate digital data in their productions. The show, entitled simply 'Earthquake', will debut on 26 May 2012. They are working on graphics and animations based on the same data sets for display on LLNL powerwalls and flat-screens as well as for public release.

  16. Virtual California, ETAS, and OpenHazards web services: Responding to earthquakes in the age of Big Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoder, M. R.; Schultz, K.; Rundle, J. B.; Glasscoe, M. T.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    The response to the 2014 m=6 Napa earthquake showcased data driven services and technologies that aided first responders and decision makers to quickly assess damage, estimate aftershock hazard, and efficiently allocate resources where where they were most needed. These tools have been developed from fundamental research as part of a broad collaboration -- facilitated in no small party by the California Earthquake Clearinghouse, between researchers, policy makers, and executive decision makers and practiced and honed during numerous disaster response exercises over the past several years. On 24 August 2014, and the weeks following the m=6 Napa event, it became evident that these technologies will play an important role in the response to natural (and other) disasters in the 21st century. Given the continued rapid growth of computational capabilities, remote sensing technologies, and data gathering capacities -- including by unpiloted aerial vehicles (UAVs), it is reasonable to expect that both the volume and variety of data available during a response scenario will grow significantly in the decades to come. Inevitably, modern Data Science will be critical to effective disaster response in the 21st century. In this work, we discuss the roles that earthquake simulators, statistical seismicity models, and remote sensing technologies played in the the 2014 Napa earthquake response. We further discuss "Big Data" technologies and data models that facilitate the transformation of raw data into disseminable information and actionable products, and we outline a framework for the next generation of disaster response data infrastructure.

  17. In-situ fluid-pressure measurements for earthquake prediction: An example from a deep well at Hi Vista, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Healy, J.H.; Urban, T.C.

    1985-01-01

    Short-term earthquake prediction requires sensitive instruments for measuring the small anomalous changes in stress and strain that precede earthquakes. Instruments installed at or near the surface have proven too noisy for measuring anomalies of the size expected to occur, and it is now recognized that even to have the possibility of a reliable earthquake-prediction system will require instruments installed in drill holes at depths sufficient to reduce the background noise to a level below that of the expected premonitory signals. We are conducting experiments to determine the maximum signal-to-noise improvement that can be obtained in drill holes. In a 592 m well in the Mojave Desert near Hi Vista, California, we measured water-level changes with amplitudes greater than 10 cm, induced by earth tides. By removing the effects of barometric pressure and the stress related to earth tides, we have achieved a sensitivity to volumetric strain rates of 10-9 to 10-10 per day. Further improvement may be possible, and it appears that a successful earthquake-prediction capability may be achieved with an array of instruments installed in drill holes at depths of about 1 km, assuming that the premonitory strain signals are, in fact, present. ?? 1985 Birkha??user Verlag.

  18. Crustal deformation and stress transfer during a propagating earthquake sequence: The 2013 Cook Strait sequence, central New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamling, I. J.; D'Anastasio, E.; Wallace, L. M.; Ellis, S.; Motagh, M.; Samsonov, S.; Palmer, N.; Hreinsdóttir, S.

    2014-07-01

    The 2013 Cook Strait earthquake sequence began on 18 July 2013 with two foreshocks of Mw 5.7 and Mw 5.8 and culminated in the Mw 6.6 Cook Strait and Lake Grassmere events on 21 July and 16 August, respectively. Located ˜50 km south of New Zealand's capital, Wellington, the earthquakes generated the most significant ground shaking in the Wellington and Marlborough regions in recent decades. During the first event, located under Cook Strait, continuously recording GPS instruments across central New Zealand recorded up to 5 cm of horizontal displacement. Modeling suggests that the rupture was 25 km long with up to 90 cm of dextral strike slip. The second event, located 20 km to the southwest, caused displacements of up to 25 cm at GPS sites located around the Clifford bay area. In addition, two interferograms from RADARSAT-2 and TerraSAR-X showed up to 30 cm of line-of-sight displacement in the vicinity of Lake Grassmere. Modeling indicates predominantly dextral strike slip of up to 2.1 m. Coulomb Stress changes induced by the earlier foreshocks suggest that the Cook Strait event was triggered by the preceding events and that the Lake Grassmere event was subsequently triggered by the Cook Strait earthquake.

  19. Borehole velocity measurements at five sites that recorded the Cape Mendocino, California earthquake of 25 April, 1992

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gibbs, James F.; Tinsley, John C.; Boore, David M.

    2002-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of an ongoing program to acquire seismic velocity and geologic data at locations that recorded strong-ground motions during earthquakes, has investigated five sites in the Fortuna, California region (Figure 1). We selected drill sites at strong-motion stations that recorded high accelerations (Table 1) from the Cape Mendocino earthquake (M 7.0) of 25 April 1992 (Oppenheimer et al., 1993). The boreholes were drilled to a nominal depth of 95 meters (310 ft) and cased with schedule 80 pvc-casing grouted in place at each location. S-wave and P-wave data were acquired at each site using a surface source and a borehole three-component geophone. This report contains the velocity models interpreted from the borehole data and gives reference to locations and peak accelerations at the selected strong-motion stations.

  20. Spatial variations in fault friction related to lithology from rupture and afterslip of the 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Floyd, Michael A.; Walters, Richard J.; Elliott, John R.; Funning, Gareth J.; Svarc, Jerry L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Hooper, Andy J.; Larsen, Yngvar; Marinkovic, Petar; Bürgmann, Roland; Johanson, Ingrid A.; Wright, Tim J.

    2016-07-01

    Following earthquakes, faults are often observed to continue slipping aseismically. It has been proposed that this afterslip occurs on parts of the fault with rate-strengthening friction that are stressed by the main shock, but our understanding has been limited by a lack of immediate, high-resolution observations. Here we show that the behavior of afterslip following the 2014 South Napa earthquake in California varied over distances of only a few kilometers. This variability cannot be explained by coseismic stress changes alone. We present daily positions from continuous and survey GPS sites that we remeasured within 12 h of the main shock and surface displacements from the new Sentinel-1 radar mission. This unique geodetic data set constrains the distribution and evolution of coseismic and postseismic fault slip with exceptional resolution in space and time. We suggest that the observed heterogeneity in behavior is caused by lithological controls on the frictional properties of the fault plane.

  1. The 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance: A Case Study - Using an Earthquake Anniversary to Promote Earthquake Preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brocher, T. M.; Garcia, S.; Aagaard, B. T.; Boatwright, J. J.; Dawson, T.; Hellweg, M.; Knudsen, K. L.; Perkins, J.; Schwartz, D. P.; Stoffer, P. W.; Zoback, M.

    2008-12-01

    Last October 21st marked the 140th anniversary of the M6.8 1868 Hayward Earthquake, the last damaging earthquake on the southern Hayward Fault. This anniversary was used to help publicize the seismic hazards associated with the fault because: (1) the past five such earthquakes on the Hayward Fault occurred about 140 years apart on average, and (2) the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault system is the most likely (with a 31 percent probability) fault in the Bay Area to produce a M6.7 or greater earthquake in the next 30 years. To promote earthquake awareness and preparedness, over 140 public and private agencies and companies and many individual joined the public-private nonprofit 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance (1868alliance.org). The Alliance sponsored many activities including a public commemoration at Mission San Jose in Fremont, which survived the 1868 earthquake. This event was followed by an earthquake drill at Bay Area schools involving more than 70,000 students. The anniversary prompted the Silver Sentinel, an earthquake response exercise based on the scenario of an earthquake on the Hayward Fault conducted by Bay Area County Offices of Emergency Services. 60 other public and private agencies also participated in this exercise. The California Seismic Safety Commission and KPIX (CBS affiliate) produced professional videos designed forschool classrooms promoting Drop, Cover, and Hold On. Starting in October 2007, the Alliance and the U.S. Geological Survey held a sequence of press conferences to announce the release of new research on the Hayward Fault as well as new loss estimates for a Hayward Fault earthquake. These included: (1) a ShakeMap for the 1868 Hayward earthquake, (2) a report by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasting the number of employees, employers, and wages predicted to be within areas most strongly shaken by a Hayward Fault earthquake, (3) new estimates of the losses associated with a Hayward Fault earthquake, (4) new ground motion

  2. Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Labor Market Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.; Wein, Anne M.

    2008-01-01

    The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report contains an exposure and sensitivity analysis of economic Super Sectors in terms of labor and employment statistics. Exposure is measured as the absolute counts of labor market variables anticipated to experience each level of Instrumental Intensity (a proxy measure of damage). Sensitivity is the percentage of the exposure of each Super Sector to each Instrumental Intensity level. The analysis concerns the direct effect of the scenario earthquake on economic sectors and provides a baseline for the indirect and interactive analysis of an input-output model of the regional economy. The analysis is inspired by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that analyzed the labor market losses (exposure) of a M6.9 earthquake on the Hayward fault by overlaying geocoded labor market data on Instrumental Intensity values. The method used here is influenced by the ZIP-code-level data provided by the California Employment Development Department (CA EDD), which requires the assignment of Instrumental Intensities to ZIP codes. The ZIP-code-level labor market data includes the number of business establishments, employees, and quarterly payroll categorized by the North American Industry Classification System. According to the analysis results, nearly 225,000 business

  3. Instrumental intensity distribution for the Hector Mine, California, and the Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquakes: Comparison of two methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sokolov, V.; Wald, D.J.

    2002-01-01

    We compare two methods of seismic-intensity estimation from ground-motion records for the two recent strong earthquakes: the 1999 (M 7.1) Hector Mine, California, and the 1999 (M 7.6) Chi-Chi, Taiwan. The first technique utilizes the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and velocity (PGV), and it is used for rapid generation of the instrumental intensity map in California. The other method is based on the revised relationships between intensity and Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS). The results of using the methods are compared with independently observed data and between the estimations from the records. For the case of the Hector Mine earthquake, the calculated intensities in general agree with the observed values. For the case of the Chi-Chi earthquake, the areas of maximum calculated intensity correspond to the areas of the greatest damage and highest number of fatalities. However, the FAS method producees higher-intensity values than those of the peak amplitude method. The specific features of ground-motion excitation during the large, shallow, thrust earthquake may be considered a reason for the discrepancy. The use of PGA and PGV is simple; however, the use of FAS provides a natural consideration of site amplification by means of generalized or site-specific spectral ratios. Because the calculation of seismic-intensity maps requires rapid processing of data from a large network, it is very practical to generate a "first-order" map from the recorded peak motions. Then, a "second-order" map may be compiled using an amplitude-spectra method on the basis of available records and numerical modeling of the site-dependent spectra for the regions of sparse station spacing.

  4. Collective properties of injection-induced earthquake sequences: 2. Spatiotemporal evolution and magnitude frequency distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dempsey, David; Suckale, Jenny; Huang, Yihe

    2016-05-01

    Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for induced seismicity depends on reliable estimates of the locations, rate, and magnitude frequency properties of earthquake sequences. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how variations in these properties emerge from interactions between an evolving fluid pressure distribution and the mechanics of rupture on heterogeneous faults. We use an earthquake sequence model, developed in the first part of this two-part series, that computes pore pressure evolution, hypocenter locations, and rupture lengths for earthquakes triggered on 1-D faults with spatially correlated shear stress. We first consider characteristic features that emerge from a range of generic injection scenarios and then focus on the 2010-2011 sequence of earthquakes linked to wastewater disposal into two wells near the towns of Guy and Greenbrier, Arkansas. Simulations indicate that one reason for an increase of the Gutenberg-Richter b value for induced earthquakes is the different rates of reduction of static and residual strength as fluid pressure rises. This promotes fault rupture at lower stress than equivalent tectonic events. Further, b value is shown to decrease with time (the induced seismicity analog of b value reduction toward the end of the seismic cycle) and to be higher on faults with lower initial shear stress. This suggests that faults in the same stress field that have different orientations, and therefore different levels of resolved shear stress, should exhibit seismicity with different b-values. A deficit of large-magnitude events is noted when injection occurs directly onto a fault and this is shown to depend on the geometry of the pressure plume. Finally, we develop models of the Guy-Greenbrier sequence that captures approximately the onset, rise and fall, and southwest migration of seismicity on the Guy-Greenbrier fault. Constrained by the migration rate, we estimate the permeability of a 10 m thick critically stressed basement

  5. An Integrated View of the Mw 6 Earthquake Sequence at Parkfield

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lapusta, N.; Barbot, S.; Avouac, J.

    2011-12-01

    propagation (including the radiation of seismic waves) and the afterslip transient that follows the main shocks. Our model gives rise to a sequence of Mw~6 earthquakes that can explain the observed variability of hypocenters and reproduce the geodetic observations of surface deformation in the co- and postseismic periods associated with the 2004 event. The change of hypocenter between 1966 and 2004 and the delay of the latest event is consistent with the occurrence of a swarm of smaller-magnitude earthquakes during the 1992-1994 period and these two locations being close to the boundary of the seismogenic zone. Our study introduces a methodology capable of integrating seismological and geodetic observations into a coherent physical model of the earthquake cycle. Our approach can serve as an important tool to investigate the effect of other components of earthquake physics and to help understand and mitigate seismic hazards around active faults.

  6. Collective properties of injection-induced earthquake sequences: 1. Model description and directivity bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dempsey, David; Suckale, Jenny

    2016-05-01

    Induced seismicity is of increasing concern for oil and gas, geothermal, and carbon sequestration operations, with several M > 5 events triggered in recent years. Modeling plays an important role in understanding the causes of this seismicity and in constraining seismic hazard. Here we study the collective properties of induced earthquake sequences and the physics underpinning them. In this first paper of a two-part series, we focus on the directivity ratio, which quantifies whether fault rupture is dominated by one (unilateral) or two (bilateral) propagating fronts. In a second paper, we focus on the spatiotemporal and magnitude-frequency distributions of induced seismicity. We develop a model that couples a fracture mechanics description of 1-D fault rupture with fractal stress heterogeneity and the evolving pore pressure distribution around an injection well that triggers earthquakes. The extent of fault rupture is calculated from the equations of motion for two tips of an expanding crack centered at the earthquake hypocenter. Under tectonic loading conditions, our model exhibits a preference for unilateral rupture and a normal distribution of hypocenter locations, two features that are consistent with seismological observations. On the other hand, catalogs of induced events when injection occurs directly onto a fault exhibit a bias toward ruptures that propagate toward the injection well. This bias is due to relatively favorable conditions for rupture that exist within the high-pressure plume. The strength of the directivity bias depends on a number of factors including the style of pressure buildup, the proximity of the fault to failure and event magnitude. For injection off a fault that triggers earthquakes, the modeled directivity bias is small and may be too weak for practical detection. For two hypothetical injection scenarios, we estimate the number of earthquake observations required to detect directivity bias.

  7. Southern California Earthquake Center/Undergraduate Studies in Earthquake Information Technology (SCEC/UseIT): Towards the Next Generation of Internship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, S.; Benthien, M.; Jordan, T. H.

    2005-12-01

    The SCEC/UseIT internship program is training the next generation of earthquake scientist, with methods that can be adapted to other disciplines. UseIT interns work collaboratively, in multi-disciplinary teams, conducting computer science research that is needed by earthquake scientists. Since 2002, the UseIT program has welcomed 64 students, in some two dozen majors, at all class levels, from schools around the nation. Each summer''s work is posed as a ``Grand Challenge.'' The students then organize themselves into project teams, decide how to proceed, and pool their diverse talents and backgrounds. They have traditional mentors, who provide advice and encouragement, but they also mentor one another, and this has proved to be a powerful relationship. Most begin with fear that their Grand Challenge is impossible, and end with excitement and pride about what they have accomplished. The 22 UseIT interns in summer, 2005, were primarily computer science and engineering majors, with others in geology, mathematics, English, digital media design, physics, history, and cinema. The 2005 Grand Challenge was to "build an earthquake monitoring system" to aid scientists who must visualize rapidly evolving earthquake sequences and convey information to emergency personnel and the public. Most UseIT interns were engaged in software engineering, bringing new datasets and functionality to SCEC-VDO (Virtual Display of Objects), a 3D visualization software that was prototyped by interns last year, using Java3D and an extensible, plug-in architecture based on the Eclipse Integrated Development Environment. Other UseIT interns used SCEC-VDO to make animated movies, and experimented with imagery in order to communicate concepts and events in earthquake science. One movie-making project included the creation of an assessment to test the effectiveness of the movie''s educational message. Finally, one intern created an interactive, multimedia presentation of the UseIT program.

  8. When and where the aftershock activity was depressed: Contrasting decay patterns of the proximate large earthquakes in southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ogata, Y.; Jones, L.M.; Toda, S.

    2003-01-01

    Seismic quiescence has attracted attention as a possible precursor to a large earthquake. However, sensitive detection of quiescence requires accurate modeling of normal aftershock activity. We apply the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model that is a natural extension of the modified Omori formula for aftershock decay, allowing further clusters (secondary aftershocks) within an aftershock sequence. The Hector Mine aftershock activity has been normal, relative to the decay predicted by the ETAS model during the 14 months of available data. In contrast, although the aftershock sequence of the 1992 Landers earthquake (M = 7.3), including the 1992 Big Bear earthquake (M = 6.4) and its aftershocks, fits very well to the ETAS up until about 6 months after the main shock, the activity showed clear lowering relative to the modeled rate (relative quiescence) and lasted nearly 7 years, leading up to the Hector Mine earthquake (M = 7.1) in 1999. Specifically, the relative quiescence occurred only in the shallow aftershock activity, down to depths of 5-6 km. The sequence of deeper events showed clear, normal aftershock activity well fitted to the ETAS throughout the whole period. We argue several physical explanations for these results. Among them, we strongly suspect aseismic slips within the Hector Mine rupture source that could inhibit the crustal relaxation process within "shadow zones" of the Coulomb's failure stress change. Furthermore, the aftershock activity of the 1992 Joshua Tree earthquake (M = 6.1) sharply lowered in the same day of the main shock, which can be explained by a similar scenario.

  9. Coseismic and postseismic displacements related with the 1997 Earthquake Sequence in Umbria-Marche (Central Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basili, Roberto; Meghraoui, Mustapha

    We study the coseismic and postseismic displacements related with the 1997 Umbria-Marche earthquake sequence by means of leveling lines along a deformed aqueduct located in the epicentral area. Comparing the 1960 and 10/1997 measurements we obtain 0.49±0.10 m of coseismic displacement distributed along 3 km across the normal fault zone. Modeling of the coseismic surface dislocation is obtained from a combination of low angle (38°) faults at depth and high angle (80°) upper fault branches. The best fit model indicates that the upper branches stop at 0.4 km below the ground surface and have 60% of slip with respect to the lower faults. The postseismic displacement measured during 1998 is 0.18 m and represents 36% of the apparent coseismic deformation. Moderate earthquakes in the Apennines and related surface deformation may thus result from curved faults that reflect the brittle-elastic properties of the uppermost crustal structures.

  10. A methodology for analyzing precursors to earthquake-initiated and fire-initiated accident sequences

    SciTech Connect

    Budnitz, R.J.; Lambert, H.E.; Apostolakis, G.

    1998-04-01

    This report covers work to develop a methodology for analyzing precursors to both earthquake-initiated and fire-initiated accidents at commercial nuclear power plants. Currently, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission sponsors a large ongoing project, the Accident Sequence Precursor project, to analyze the safety significance of other types of accident precursors, such as those arising from internally-initiated transients and pipe breaks, but earthquakes and fires are not within the current scope. The results of this project are that: (1) an overall step-by-step methodology has been developed for precursors to both fire-initiated and seismic-initiated potential accidents; (2) some stylized case-study examples are provided to demonstrate how the fully-developed methodology works in practice, and (3) a generic seismic-fragility date base for equipment is provided for use in seismic-precursors analyses. 44 refs., 23 figs., 16 tabs.

  11. The magnitude 6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake of 17 January 1994

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, L.; Aki, K.; Boore, D.; Celebi, M.; Donnellan, A.; Hall, J.; Harris, R.; Hauksson, E.; Heaton, T.; Hough, S.; Hudnut, K.; Hutton, K.; Johnston, M.; Joyner, W.; Kanamori, H.; Marshall, G.; Michael, A.; Mori, J.; Murray, M.; Ponti, D.; Reasenberg, P.; Schwartz, D.; Seeber, L.; Shakal, A.; Simpson, R.; Thio, H.; Tinsley, J.; Todorovska, M.; Trifunac, M.; Wald, D.; Zoback, M.L.

    1994-01-01

    The most costly American earthquake since 1906 struck Los Angeles on 17 January 1994. The magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake resulted from more than 3 meters of reverse slip on a 15-kilometer-long south-dipping thrust fault that raised the Santa Susana mountains by as much as 70 centimeters. The fault appears to be truncated by the fault that broke in the 1971 San Fernando earthquake at a depth of 8 kilometers. Of these two events, the Northridge earthquake caused many times more damage, primarily because its causative fault is directly under the city. Many types of structures were damaged, but the fracture of welds in steel-frame buildings was the greatest surprise. The Northridge earthquake emphasizes the hazard posed to Los Angeles by concealed thrust faults and the potential for strong ground shaking in moderate earthquakes.The most costly American earthquake since 1906 struck Los Angeles on 17 January 1994. The magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake resulted from more than 3 meters of reverse slip on a 15-kilometer-long south-dipping thrust fault that raised the Santa Susana mountains by as much as 70 centimeters. The fault appears to be truncated by the fault that broke in the 1971 San Fernando earthquake at a depth of 8 kilometers. Of these two events, the Northridge earthquake caused many times more damage, primarily because its causative fault is directly under the city. Many types of structures were damaged, but the fracture of welds in steel-frame buildings was the greatest surprise. The Northridge earthquake emphasizes the hazard posed to Los Angeles by concealed thrust faults and the potential for strong ground shaking in moderate earthquakes.

  12. Southern California Earthquake Center - SCEC1: Final Report Summary Alternative Earthquake Source Characterization for the Los Angeles Region

    SciTech Connect

    Foxall, B

    2003-02-26

    The objective my research has been to synthesize current understanding of the tectonics and faults of the Los Angeles Basin and surrounding region to quantify uncertainty in the characterization of earthquake sources used for geologically- and geodetically-based regional earthquake likelihood models. This work has focused on capturing epistemic uncertainty; i.e. uncertainty stemming from ignorance of the true characteristics of the active faults in the region and of the tectonic forces that drive them. In the present context, epistemic uncertainty has two components: First, the uncertainty in source geometrical and occurrence rate parameters deduced from the limited geological, geophysical and geodetic observations available; and second. uncertainties that result from fundamentally different interpretations of regional tectonic deformation and faulting. Characterization of the large number of active and potentially active faults that need to be included in estimating earthquake occurrence likelihoods for the Los Angeles region requires synthesis and evaluation of large amounts of data and numerous interpretations. This was accomplished primarily through a series of carefully facilitated workshops, smaller meetings involving key researchers, and email groups. The workshops and meetings were made possible by the unique logistical and financial resources available through SCEC, and proved to be extremely effective forums for the exchange and critical debate of data and interpretations that are essential in constructing fully representative source models. The main products from this work are a complete source model that characterizes all know or potentially active faults in the greater Los Angeles region. which includes the continental borderland as far south as San Diego, the Ventura Basin, and the Santa Barbara Channel. The model constitutes a series of maps and representative cross-sections that define alternative fault geometries, a table containing rault

  13. Unraveling faulting in a complex earthquake sequence in the South Iceland Seismic Zone.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Decriem, J.; Arnadottir, T.; Geirsson, H.; Keiding, M.; Ofeigsson, B. G.; Hreinsdottir, S.; Lafemina, P.; Hooper, A.; Sigmunsson, F.; Bennett, R.

    2008-12-01

    The South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) is an E-W transform zone, where the relative spreading of the North American and Eurasian plates across southern Iceland is accommodated by motion on many parallel N-S right-lateral strike slip faults, rather than left-lateral motion on a single E-W through going fault. Historically, earthquake sequences with main shocks reaching M7 have occurred in the SISZ, many initiating in the eastern part of the zone with subsequent events further west. A magnitude 6.3 earthquake occurred in the western part of the SISZ on May29, 2008. Aftershock locations and global centroid-moment-tensor solutions indicate rupture on at least two parallel N-S faults. The rupture on the second fault, located about 4 km west of the initial event,appears to have initiated less than one second after the main shock,suggesting dynamic triggering. The May 2008 earthquakes are a continuation of the June 2000 sequence, when two Mw=6.5 events struck the eastern and central part of the SISZ. The June 2000 main shocks ruptured two parallel N-S faults, spaced about 17 km apart, occurring about 3 1/2 days apart. Here, we present a geodetic and seismic study of the May 2008 earthquakes based on continuous and annual GPS measurements, as well as InSAR and aftershock locations. The GPS network was surveyed in April, a month before the events and remeasured immediately after. Maximum coseismic displacements of about 15 cm (horizontal) were recorded at the closest continuous GPS stations on each side of the two faults. We also measured continuously at about 20 GPS benchmarks for more than a month after the event. A small transient (about 1 cm) was recorded during the first 10 days following the earthquake. This transient motion does not appear to be caused by poro-elastic rebound due to pressure changes in the ground water system, as was observed following the June 2000 earthquakes. The aftershocks lineate at least two N-S structures as well as an E-W conjugate fault

  14. Damage and restoration of geodetic infrastructure caused by the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hodgkinson, Kathleen M.; Stein, Ross S.; Hudnut, Kenneth W.; Satalich, Jay; Richards, John H.

    1996-01-01

    We seek to restore the integrity of the geodetic network in the San Fernando, Simi, Santa Clarita Valleys and in the northern Los Angeles Basin by remeasurement of the network and identification of BMs which experienced non-tectonic displacements associated with the Northridge earthquake. We then use the observed displacement of BMs in the network to portray or predict the permanent vertical and horizontal deformation associated with the 1994 Northridge earthquake throughout the area, including sites where we lack geodetic measurements. To accomplish this, we find the fault geometry and earthquake slip that are most compatible with the geodetic and independent seismic observations of the earthquake. We then use that fault model to predict the deformation everywhere at the earth's surface, both at locations where geodetic observations exist and also where they are absent. We compare displacements predicted for a large number of numerical models of the earthquake faulting to the coseismic displacements, treating the earthquake fault as a cut or discontinuity embedded in a stiff elastic solid. This comparison is made after non-tectonic deformation has been removed from the measured elevation changes. The fault slip produces strain in the medium and deforms the ground surface. The model compatible with seismic observations that best fits the geodetic data within their uncertainties is selected. The acceptable model fault bisects the mainshock focus, and the earthquake size , magnitude, is compatible with the earthquake size measured seismically. Our fault model was used to identify geodetic monuments on engineered structures that were anomalously displaced by the earthquake.

  15. Earthquake-induced structures in sediments of Van Norman Lake, San Fernando, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sims, J.D.

    1973-01-01

    The 9 February 1971 earthquake in the San Fernando Valley damaged the Lower Van Norman Dam severely enough to warrant draining the reservoir. In March 1972 the sediment deposited on the reservoir floor was examined to determine whether the 1971 earthquake had induced sediment deformation and, if so, what types. A zone of deformational structures characterized by small-scale loads and slightly recumbent folds associated with the 1971 earthquake was discovered, in addition to two older zones of load structures. Each of the zones has been tentatively correlated with an historic earthquake.

  16. The search for repeating earthquakes in the northern San Francisco Bay area Nader Shakibay Senobari and Gareth J. Funning University of California, Riverside

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shakibay Senobari, N.; Funning, G.

    2013-12-01

    Repeating earthquakes (REs) are sequences of identical repeating events, which are recurring either irregularly (aperiodic) or nearly regularly (quasi-periodic). There are two important characteristics of the events in a RE sequence: they have the same source characteristics (i.e. magnitude and mechanism) and they have the same location and therefore their waveforms at the same stations are extremely similar. Several authors have proposed that the quasi-periodic REs result from recurrent rupture of a small locked patch on a fault surface surrounded by a larger area of creep. The implication is that any detection of characteristic REs along a fault can be interpreted as a signature of the creep at depth on that fault. In addition, REs can be used for locating faults and determining their geometries at depth. In this study, we are looking for REs on the northern Rodgers Creek and southern Maacama faults near Santa Rosa, CA. There is some observational evidence for creep along portions of these faults (e.g. from InSAR, alignment arrays and offset cultural features) but the depth of creep on both faults is still unknown. Finding the locations of REs in this area, and combining them with geodetic data, will help us to place stronger constraints on the distributions of aseismic slip on both the Rodgers Creek and Maacama faults. In order to identify such events, we use data from the Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN) for the period from 1984 to July 2013. We used earthquake waveforms from 2080 events located inside a 25 by 30 km area around Santa Rosa. We choose 7 stations located both inside and outside the selection area at distances of up to 50 km. We calculate the coherence for all pairs of events for each station during the time that the sensor has not been changed (mostly from 1987 to 2013). We align the waveforms using P arrival times from the NCSN catalog. The time windows for the seismogram analysis are set at 0.2 sec before and 10.2 sec after the P

  17. Field-based assessment of landslide hazards resulting from the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, B. D.; Jibson, R.

    2015-12-01

    The M7.8 2015 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake sequence caused thousands of fatalities, destroyed entire villages, and displaced millions of residents. The earthquake sequence also triggered thousands of landslides in the steep Himalayan topography of Nepal and China; these landslides were responsible for hundreds of fatalities and blocked vital roads, trails, and rivers. With the support of USAID's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, the U.S. Geological Survey responded to this crisis by providing landslide-hazard expertise to Nepalese agencies and affected villages. Assessments of landslide hazards following earthquakes are essential to identify vulnerable populations and infrastructure, and inform government agencies working on rebuilding and mitigation efforts. However, assessing landslide hazards over an entire earthquake-affected region (in Nepal, estimated to be ~30,000 km2), and in exceedingly steep, inaccessible topography presents a number of logistical challenges. We focused the scope of our assessment by conducting helicopter- and ground-based landslide assessments in 12 priority areas in central Nepal identified a priori from satellite photo interpretation performed in conjunction with an international consortium of remote sensing experts. Our reconnaissance covered 3,200 km of helicopter flight path, extending over an approximate area of 8,000 km2. During our field work, we made 17 site-specific assessments and provided landslide hazard information to both villages and in-country agencies. Upon returning from the field, we compiled our observations and further identified and assessed 74 river-blocking landslide dams, 12% of which formed impoundments larger than 1,000 m2 in surface area. These assessments, along with more than 11 hours of helicopter-based video, and an overview of hazards expected during the 2015 summer monsoon have been publically released (http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20151142) for use by in-country and international agencies.

  18. Reflections on Communicating Science during the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence of 2010-2011, New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A. M.; Berryman, K. R.; Jolly, G. E.; Brackley, H. L.; Gledhill, K. R.

    2015-12-01

    The 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence began with the 4th September 2010 Darfield earthquake (Mw 7.1). Perhaps because there were no deaths, the mood of the city and the government was that high standards of earthquake engineering in New Zealand protected us, and there was a confident attitude to response and recovery. The demand for science and engineering information was of interest but not seen as crucial to policy, business or the public. The 22nd February 2011 Christchurch earthquake (Mw 6.2) changed all that; there was a significant death toll and many injuries. There was widespread collapse of older unreinforced and two relatively modern multi-storey buildings, and major disruption to infrastructure. The contrast in the interest and relevance of the science could not have been greater compared to 5 months previously. Magnitude 5+ aftershocks over a 20 month period resulted in confusion, stress, an inability to define a recovery trajectory, major concerns about whether insurers and reinsurers would continue to provide cover, very high levels of media interest from New Zealand and around the world, and high levels of political risk. As the aftershocks continued there was widespread speculation as to what the future held. During the sequence, the science and engineering sector sought to coordinate and offer timely and integrated advice. However, other than GeoNet, the national geophysical monitoring network, there were few resources devoted to communication, with the result that it was almost always reactive. With hindsight we have identified the need to resource information gathering and synthesis, execute strategic assessments of stakeholder needs, undertake proactive communication, and develop specific information packages for the diversity of users. Overall this means substantially increased resources. Planning is now underway for the science sector to adopt the New Zealand standardised CIMS (Coordinated Incident Management System) structure for

  19. Cross-sections and maps showing double-difference relocated earthquakes from 1984-2000 along the Hayward and Calaveras faults, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simpson, Robert W.; Graymer, Russell W.; Jachens, Robert C.; Ponce, David A.; Wentworth, Carl M.

    2004-01-01

    We present cross-section and map views of earthquakes that occurred from 1984 to 2000 in the vicinity of the Hayward and Calaveras faults in the San Francisco Bay region, California. These earthquakes came from a catalog of events relocated using the double-difference technique, which provides superior relative locations of nearby events. As a result, structures such as fault surfaces and alignments of events along these surfaces are more sharply defined than in previous catalogs.

  20. Earthquake-by-earthquake fold growth above the Puente Hills blind thrust fault, Los Angeles, California: Implications for fold kinematics and seismic hazard

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Leon, L.A.; Christofferson, S.A.; Dolan, J.F.; Shaw, J.H.; Pratt, T.L.

    2007-01-01

    Boreholes and high-resolution seismic reflection data collected across the forelimb growth triangle above the central segment of the Puente Hills thrust fault (PHT) beneath Los Angeles, California, provide a detailed record of incremental fold growth during large earthquakes on this major blind thrust fault. These data document fold growth within a discrete kink band that narrows upward from ???460 m at the base of the Quaternary section (200-250 m depth) to 82% at 250 m depth) folding and uplift occur within discrete kink bands, thereby enabling us to develop a paleoseismic history of the underlying blind thrust fault. The borehole data reveal that the youngest part of the growth triangle in the uppermost 20 m comprises three stratigraphically discrete growth intervals marked by southward thickening sedimentary strata that are separated by intervals in which sediments do not change thickness across the site. We interpret the intervals of growth as occurring after the formation of now-buried paleofold scarps during three large PHT earthquakes in the past 8 kyr. The intervening intervals of no growth record periods of structural quiescence and deposition at the regional, near-horizontal stream gradient at the study site. Minimum uplift in each of the scarp-forming events, which occurred at 0.2-2.2 ka (event Y), 3.0-6.3 ka (event X), and 6.6-8.1 ka (event W), ranged from ???1.1 to ???1.6 m, indicating minimum thrust displacements of ???2.5 to 4.5 m. Such large displacements are consistent with the occurrence of large-magnitude earthquakes (Mw > 7). Cumulative, minimum uplift in the past three events was 3.3 to 4.7 m, suggesting cumulative thrust displacement of ???7 to 10.5 m. These values yield a minimum Holocene slip rate for the PHT of ???0.9 to 1.6 mm/yr. The borehole and seismic reflection data demonstrate that dip within the kink band is acquired incrementally, such that older strata that have been deformed by more earthquakes dip more steeply than younger

  1. Signatures of the seismic source in EMD-based characterization of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake recordings

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zhang, R.R.; Ma, S.; Hartzell, S.

    2003-01-01

    In this article we use empirical mode decomposition (EMD) to characterize the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake records and investigate the signatures carried over from the source rupture process. Comparison of the current study results with existing source inverse solutions that use traditional data processing suggests that the EMD-based characterization contains information that sheds light on aspects of the earthquake rupture process. We first summarize the fundamentals of the EMD and illustrate its features through the analysis of a hypothetical and a real record. Typically, the Northridge strong-motion records are decomposed into eight or nine intrinsic mode functions (IMF's), each of which emphasizes a different oscillation mode with different amplitude and frequency content. The first IMF has the highest-frequency content; frequency content decreases with an increase in IMF component. With the aid of a finite-fault inversion method, we then examine aspects of the source of the 1994 Northridge earthquake that are reflected in the second to fifth IMF components. This study shows that the second IMF is predominantly wave motion generated near the hypocenter, with high-frequency content that might be related to a large stress drop associated with the initiation of the earthquake. As one progresses from the second to the fifth IMF component, there is a general migration of the source region away from the hypocenter with associated longer-period signals as the rupture propagates. This study suggests that the different IMF components carry information on the earthquake rupture process that is expressed in their different frequency bands.

  2. Transient Deformation Preceding and Following the June 2000 Earthquake Sequence in Southwest Iceland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnadottir, T.; Miyazaki, S.; Geirsson, H.

    2005-12-01

    Two Mw=6.5 earthquakes and several M~5 triggered earthquakes occurred in south Iceland over a period of 4 days in June 2000. The first main shock on June 17, triggered increased seismicity over a large area and significant slip on at least three distinct faults on the Reykjanes Peninsula, up to 90 km to the west of the main shock epicenter. Crustal deformation signals due to the earthquake sequence were observed with campaign and continuous GPS and InSAR. Seismic and geodetic data confirm that the faults that ruptured in the June 2000 sequence are oriented N-S, almost perpendicular to the trend of the plate boundary, with primarily right-lateral strike slip motion. The geodetic data from the Reykjanes Peninsula suggest that the event near Kleifarvatn had a significantly larger moment than seismic estimates, indicating a component of aseismic slip on the fault lasting no more than several hours. Kinematic GPS analysis of 30 second data from the two closest continuous GPS station in Iceland is used to constrain the timing of the aseismic component of the deformation. Transient deformation in the area of the two main shocks was observed with InSAR and GPS. A short term transient observed by InSAR has been explained by poro-elastic rebound due to post-earthquake pore-pressure changes. The longer term deformation signal can be explained by either afterslip at 8-14 km depth or viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle in response to the coseismic stress changes. The June 2000 earthquake sequence was preceded by intrusive and intense seismic activity at the Hengill triple junction and an eruption at Hekla volcano, located at the western and eastern ends of the south Iceland seismic zone, respectively. Coulomb stress change calculations indicate that the Hengill intrusion decreased the stress at the western end of the SISZ. These events illustrate the importance of increasing the spatial and temporal resolution of continuous monitoring of crustal

  3. Relocation and characteristics of recent earthquake sequences (2013, 2014) on the North Gulf of Evia, Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moshou, Alexandra; Ganas, Athanassios; Karastathis, Vassilios; Mouzakiotis, Evangelos

    2015-04-01

    This work presents the results of relocation and stress inversion analysis for two recent earthquake sequences in the northern Gulf of Evia, central Greece. On 12 November 2013 (18:09, UTC) a moderate earthquake, ML=4.8 occurred onshore northern Evia, near the village Taxiarxis. The epicentral area of this event was manually located: φ=38.9133° Ν, λ=23.0977° Ε at depth 14 km, according to NOA. For a period of one month there were 155 aftershocks with magnitude ML>0.5, while the first day there were 85 earthquakes; the largest of them with magnitude ML=3.9. On November 17, 2014, two shallow earthquakes with magnitude ML=5.2 occurred inside the northern Gulf of Evia, about 34 km NW of Chalkis town. For the location of above events broadband data from HUSN network were used. The relocation for both sequences was done by use of the NonLinLoc software of Lomax etal. (2000). For this purpose a local velocity model was used, calculated in the past by traveltime inversion techniques. For the 2013 seismic sequence the phase data from National Observatory of Athens include more than 12700 P and 4800 S - wave arrivals. Only events with at least 8 P-wave and 4 S-wave arrival having an azimuthal gap lower than 180°, location RMS lower than 0.8 sec and vertical and horizontal errors lower than 1.5 km were selected for processing. A NNW-SSE near-vertical fault was revealed after relocation. The second part of this study refers to the calculation of the moment tensor solutions for the main events as well as for the strongest aftershocks of the 2014 seismic sequence. Seismological broadband data from the Hellenic Unified Seismological Network were collected and analyzed in order to determine the source parameters of the events that occurred in the study area. We selected and analyzed the data of 10 broadband seismological stations with three components. The source parameters were calculated based on a moment tensor inversion, using regional waveforms at epicentral distances

  4. Earthquake Sequences on Rate and State Faults With Strong Dynamic Weakening

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lapusta, N.; Rice, J. R.

    2004-12-01

    The laboratory-derived rate and state friction laws provide a unique tool for simulating earthquake sequences in their entirety, from accelerating slip in slowly expanding nucleation zones to rapid dynamic propagation of earthquake rupture to post-seismic slip and interseismic creep to fault restrengthening between seismic events. We (Lapusta et al., JGR, 2000) developed an efficient methodology that allows simulating all these stages of the earthquake process within a single algorithm in a model based on the Dieterich-Ruina rate and state laws. However, the laws have been derived from experiments with slip velocities small compared to those in seismic range. Hence these logarithmic laws, although reflecting important physics at slow slip velocities, fail to capture potential much stronger variations of fault strength during dynamic slip. Such variations, in particular much stronger weakening, have been receiving more and more experimental and theoretical support. Hence we study the behavior of 2-D rate and state faults with the constitutive relation modified at high seismic slips and/or slip velocities. One option, motivated by theoretical and experimental results on flash heating and, potentially, thermal pressurization of partially drained fault gauge, is to modify the steady-state frictional strength by the factor 1/(1+V/Vw), where Vw ~ 0.1-1 m/s is the parameter regulating at what slip velocities V the additional weakening steps in. Earthquake sequences simulated with such a law, that also includes static (slow-velocity) friction coefficient of about 0.6 as determined in the lab and effective normal stresses comparable to the overburden minus hydrostatic pore pressure, produce earthquakes that nucleate at high static shear stresses and propagate (and arrest) at low dynamic shear stresses, resulting in huge static stress drops. To avoid large static stress drops, it is NOT necessary to assume uniformly low static friction coefficient and/or uniformly low

  5. The Magnitude 6.7 Northridge, California, Earthquake of January 17, 1994

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Donnellan, A.

    1994-01-01

    The most damaging earthquake in the United States since 1906 struck northern Los Angeles on January 17.1994. The magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake produced a maximum of more than 3 meters of reverse (up-dip) slip on a south-dipping thrust fault rooted under the San Fernando Valley and projecting north under the Santa Susana Mountains.

  6. Chapter C. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Preseismic Observations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnston, Malcolm J. S.

    1993-01-01

    The October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta, Calif., Ms=7.1 earthquake provided the first opportunity in the history of fault monitoring in the United States to gather multidisciplinary preearthquake data in the near field of an M=7 earthquake. The data obtained include observations on seismicity, continuous strain, long-term ground displacement, magnetic field, and hydrology. The papers in this chapter describe these data, their implications for fault-failure mechanisms, the scale of prerupture nucleation, and earthquake prediction in general. Of the 10 papers presented here, about half identify preearthquake anomalies in the data, but some of these results are equivocal. Seismicity in the Loma Prieta region during the 20 years leading up to the earthquake was unremarkable. In retrospect, however, it is apparent that the principal southwest-dipping segment of the subsequent Loma Prieta rupture was virtually aseismic during this period. Two M=5 earthquakes did occur near Lake Elsman near the junction of the Sargent and San Andreas faults within 2.5 and 15 months of, and 10 km to the north of, the Loma Prieta epicenter. Although these earthquakes were not on the subsequent rupture plane of the Loma Prieta earthquake and other M=5 earthquakes occurred in the preceding 25 years, it is now generally accepted that these events were, in some way, foreshocks to the main event.

  7. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Performance of the Built Environment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coordinated by Holzer, Thomas L.

    1998-01-01

    Professional Paper 1552 focuses on the response of buildings, lifelines, highway systems, and earth structures to the earthquake. Losses to these systems totaled approximated $5.9 billion. The earthquake displaced many residents from their homes and severely disrupted transportation systems. Some significant findings were: * Approximately 16,000 housing units were uninhabitable after the earthquake including 13,000 in the San Francisco Bay region. Another 30,000-35,000 units were moderately damaged in the earthquake. Renters and low-income residents were particularly hard hit. * Failure of highway systems was the single largest cause of loss of life during the earthquake. Forty-two of the 63 earthquake fatalities died when the Cypress Viaduct in Oakland collapsed. The cost to repair and replace highways damaged by the earthquake was $2 billion, about half of which was to replace the Cypress Viaduct. * Major bridge failures were the result of antiquated designs and inadequate anticipation of seismic loading. * Twenty one kilometers (13 mi) of gas-distribution lines had to be replaced in several communities and more than 1,200 leaks and breaks in water mains and service connections had to be excavated and repaired. At least 5 electrical substations were badly damaged, overwhelming the designed redundancy of the electrical system. * Instruments in 28 buildings recorded their response to earthquake shaking that provided opportunities to understand how different types of buildings responded, the importance of site amplification, and how buildings interact with their foundation when shaken (soil structure interaction).

  8. Caltech/USGS Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN): Infrastructure upgrade to support Earthquake Early Warning (EEW)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhadha, R. J.; Hauksson, E.; Boese, M.; Felizardo, C.; Thomas, V. I.; Yu, E.; Given, D. D.; Heaton, T. H.; Hudnut, K. W.

    2013-12-01

    The SCSN is the modern digital ground motion seismic network in Southern California and performs the following tasks: 1) Operates remote seismic stations and the central data processing systems in Pasadena; 2) Generates and reports real-time products including location, magnitude, ShakeMap, aftershock probabilities and others; 3) Responds to FEMA, CalOES, media, and public inquiries about earthquakes; 4) Manages the production, archival, and distribution of waveforms, phase picks, and other data at the SCEDC; 5) Contributes to development and implementation of the demonstration EEW system called CISN ShakeAlert. Initially, the ShakeAlert project was funded through the US Geological Survey (USGS) and in early 2012, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation provided three years of new funding for EEW research and development for the US west coast. Recently, we have also received some Urban Areas Security Initiative (UASI) funding to enhance the EEW capabilities for the local UASI region by making our system overall faster, more reliable and redundant than the existing system. The additional and upgraded stations will be capable of decreasing latency and ensuring data delivery by using more reliable and redundant telemetry pathways. Overall, this will enhance the reliability of the earthquake early warnings by providing denser station coverage and more resilient data centers than before. * Seismic Datalogger upgrade: replaces existing dataloggers with modern equipment capable of sending one-second uncompressed packets and utilizing redundant Ethernet telemetry. * GPS upgrade: replaces the existing GPS receivers and antennas, especially at "zipper array" sites near the major faults, with receivers that perform on-board precise point positioning to calculate position and velocity in real time and stream continuous data for use in EEW calculations. * New co-located seismic/GPS stations: increases station density and reduces early warning delays that are incurred by travel

  9. The Effects of Differing Sequences of Earthquake Ground-Shaking on Coseismic Slope Stability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brain, M.; Rosser, N. J.; Vann Jones, E. C.; Tunstall, N.

    2015-12-01

    Studies of earthquake-induced landsliding typically consider slope stability during high-magnitude ground shaking events only. During such events, downslope movement of the landslide mass occurs when seismic ground accelerations are sufficient to overcome shear resistance at the landslide shear surface. This approach does not consider the potential effects that sequences of low-magnitude ground shaking events can have on material strength and, hence, coseismic slope stability. Since such events are more common in nature relative to high-magnitude shaking events, it is important to constrain their geomorphic effectiveness. Using an experimental laboratory approach, we present results that address this key issue. We used a bespoke geotechnical testing apparatus, the Dynamic Back-Pressured Shear Box, that permits realistic simulation of earthquake ground-shaking conditions within a hillslope. We tested both cohesive and granular materials that displayed ductile behaviour under standard strain-controlled monotonic shear tests. We applied dynamic stresses of varying amplitude, frequency and sequence, and monitored the resultant strain response to determine which factors, when combined, created notable deviations from standard monotonic shear behaviour. We observed that multiple dynamic stress/shaking events that are largely insufficient to cause large strains (and hence are conventionally deemed geomorphologically ineffective) can affect material stiffness such that the future behaviour of the sediment/landslide differs considerably from that observed in standard monotonic shear tests. In other words, low-magnitude ground shaking events can be effective precursory geomorphic processes. Critically, the sequence of ground-shaking events is an important control; where shaking conditions cause progressive densification of sediment, the frictional strength of the material subsequently increases. In turn, the resultant strain response to high-magnitude ground shaking events

  10. Marine geology and earthquake hazards of the San Pedro Shelf region, southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fisher, Michael A.; Normark, William R.; Langenheim, V.E.; Calvert, Andrew J.; Sliter, Ray

    2004-01-01

    High-resolution seismic-reflection data have been com- bined with a variety of other geophysical and geological data to interpret the offshore structure and earthquake hazards of the San Pedro Shelf, near Los Angeles, California. Prominent structures investigated include the Wilmington Graben, the Palos Verdes Fault Zone, various faults below the western part of the shelf and slope, and the deep-water San Pedro Basin. The structure of the Palos Verdes Fault Zone changes mark- edly southeastward across the San Pedro Shelf and slope. Under the northern part of the shelf, this fault zone includes several strands, but the main strand dips west and is probably an oblique-slip fault. Under the slope, this fault zone con- sists of several fault strands having normal separation, most of which dip moderately east. To the southeast near Lasuen Knoll, the Palos Verdes Fault Zone locally is a low-angle fault that dips east, but elsewhere near this knoll the fault appears to dip steeply. Fresh sea-floor scarps near Lasuen Knoll indi- cate recent fault movement. The observed regional structural variation along the Palos Verdes Fault Zone is explained as the result of changes in strike and fault geometry along a master strike-slip fault at depth. The shallow summit and possible wavecut terraces on Lasuen knoll indicate subaerial exposure during the last sea-level lowstand. Modeling of aeromagnetic data indicates the presence of a large magnetic body under the western part of the San Pedro Shelf and upper slope. This is interpreted to be a thick body of basalt of Miocene(?) age. Reflective sedimentary rocks overlying the basalt are tightly folded, whereas folds in sedimentary rocks east of the basalt have longer wavelengths. This difference might mean that the basalt was more competent during folding than the encasing sedimentary rocks. West of the Palos Verdes Fault Zone, other northwest-striking faults deform the outer shelf and slope. Evidence for recent movement along these

  11. Estimating Earthquake Hazards in the San Pedro Shelf Region, Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baher, S.; Fuis, G.; Normark, W. R.; Sliter, R.

    2003-12-01

    The San Pedro Shelf (SPS) region of the inner California Borderland offshore southern California poses a significant seismic hazard to the contiguous Los Angeles Area, as a consequence of late Cenozoic compressional reactivation of mid-Cenozoic extensional faults. The extent of the hazard, however, is poorly understood because of the complexity of fault geometries and uncertainties in earthquake locations. The major faults in the region include the Palos Verdes, THUMS Huntington Beach and the Newport-Inglewood fault zones. We report here the analysis and interpretation of wide-angle seismic-reflection and refraction data recorded as part of the Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment line 1 (LARSE 1), multichannel seismic (MCS) reflection data obtained by the USGS (1998-2000) and industry borehole stratigraphy. The onshore-offshore velocity model, which is based on forward modeling of the refracted P-wave arrival times, is used to depth migrate the LARSE 1 section. Borehole stratigraphy allows correlation of the onshore and offshore velocity models because state regulations prevent collection of deep-penetration acoustic data nearshore (within 3 mi.). Our refraction study is an extension of ten Brink et al., 2000 tomographic inversion of LARSE I data. They found high velocities (> 6 km/sec) at about ~3.5 km depth from the Catalina Fault (CF) to the SPS. We find these velocities, shallower (around 2 km depth) beneath the Catalina Ridge (CR) and SPS, but at a depth 2.5-3.0 km elsewhere in the study region. This change in velocity structure can provide additional constraints for the tectonic processes of this region. The structural horizons observed in the LARSE 1 reflection data are tied to adjacent MCS lines. We find localized folding and faulting at depth (~2 km) southwest of the CR and on the SPS slope. Quasi-laminar beds, possible of pelagic origin follow the contours of earlier folded (wavelength ~1 km) and faulted Cenozoic sedimentary and volcanic rocks. Depth to

  12. Source parameters and faulting processes of the 1959 Hebgen Lake, Montana, earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doser, Diane I.

    1985-05-01

    The August 1959 (Ms = 7.5) Hebgen Lake, Montana, earthquake is the largest earthquake to have occurred in the intermountain region in historic time. Studies of waveforms at regional and teleseismic distances indicate that the main shock of the sequence was a double event consisting of a shock of mb = 6.3 (Mo = 3 × 1018 N m) followed 5 s later by one of m = 7.0 (Mo = 1 × 1020 N m). Comparisons between fault plane solutions from short-period first motion data, seismic moment tensors determined from the inversion of long-period body wave data, and observed surface faulting indicate that rupture occurred along one or more fault planes with strike orientations slightly discordant with the trace of surface faulting. A close association between the surface scarps and Laramide thrust faults also suggests that the events may represent normal faulting along reactivated older thrust faults. Focal mechanisms from short-period first motion data for aftershocks with Ms > 5.5 in northwestern Yellow-stone National Park showed strike-slip, normal, and reverse mechanisms with a variety of nodal plane orientations that reflect the complex tectonics of the Yellowstone Plateau. Limited focal depth information suggests a decrease in the maximum focal depth of earthquakes from 15 km at Hebgen Lake to 6-10 km in northwestern Yellowstone National Park.

  13. Liquefaction and other ground failures in Imperial County, California, from the April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCrink, Timothy P.; Pridmore, Cynthia L.; Tinsley, John C.; Sickler, Robert R.; Brandenberg, Scott J.; Stewart, Jonathan P.

    2011-01-01

    The Colorado River Delta region of southern Imperial Valley, California, and Mexicali Valley, Baja California, is a tectonically dynamic area characterized by numerous active faults and frequent large seismic events. Significant earthquakes that have been accompanied by surface fault rupture and/or soil liquefaction occurred in this region in 1892 (M7.1), 1915 (M6.3; M7.1), 1930 (M5.7), 1940 (M6.9), 1950 (M5.4), 1957 (M5.2), 1968 (6.5), 1979 (6.4), 1980 (M6.1), 1981 (M5.8), and 1987 (M6.2; M6.8). Following this trend, the M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake of April 4, 2010, ruptured approximately 120 kilometers along several known faults in Baja California. Liquefaction caused by the M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake was widespread throughout the southern Imperial Valley but concentrated in the southwest corner of the valley, southwest of the city centers of Calexico and El Centro where ground motions were highest. Although there are few strong motion recordings in the very western part of the area, the recordings that do exist indicate that ground motions were on the order of 0.3 to 0.6g where the majority of liquefaction occurrences were found. More distant liquefaction occurrences, at Fites Road southwest of Brawley and along Rosita Canal northwest of Holtville were triggered where ground motions were about 0.2 g. Damage to roads was associated mainly with liquefaction of sandy river deposits beneath bridge approach fills, and in some cases liquefaction within the fills. Liquefaction damage to canal and drain levees was not always accompanied by vented sand, but the nature of the damage leads the authors to infer that liquefaction was involved in the majority of observed cases. Liquefaction-related damage to several public facilities - Calexico Waste Water Treatment Plant, Fig Lagoon levee system, and Sunbeam Lake Dam in particular - appears to be extensive. The cost to repair these facilities to prevent future liquefaction damage will likely be prohibitive. As

  14. Directional topographic site response at Tarzana observed in aftershocks of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Implications for mainshock motions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spudich, P.; Hellweg, M.; Lee, W.H.K.

    1996-01-01

    The Northridge earthquake caused 1.78 g acceleration in the east-west direction at a site in Tarzana, California, located about 6 km south of the mainshock epicenter. The accelerograph was located atop a hill about 15-m high, 500-m long, and 130-m wide, striking about N78??E. During the aftershock sequence, a temporary array of 21 three-component geophones was deployed in six radial lines centered on the accelerograph, with an average sensor spacing of 35 m. Station COO was located about 2 m from the accelerograph. We inverted aftershock spectra to obtain average relative site response at each station as a function of direction of ground motion. We identified a 3.2-Hz resonance that is a transverse oscillation of the hill (a directional topographic effect). The top/base amplification ratio at 3.2 Hz is about 4.5 for horizontal ground motions oriented approximately perpendicular to the long axis of the hill and about 2 for motions parallel to the hill. This resonance is seen most strongly within 50 m of COO. Other resonant frequencies were also observed. A strong lateral variation in attenuation, probably associated with a fault, caused substantially lower motion at frequencies above 6 Hz at the east end of the hill. There may be some additional scattered waves associated with the fault zone and seen at both the base and top of the hill, causing particle motions (not spectral ratios) at the top of the hill to be rotated about 20?? away from the direction transverse to the hill. The resonant frequency, but not the amplitude, of our observed topographic resonance agrees well with theory, even for such a low hill. Comparisons of our observations with theoretical results indicate that the 3D shape of the hill and its internal structure are important factors affecting its response. The strong transverse resonance of the hill does not account for the large east-west mainshock motions. Assuming linear soil response, mainshock east-west motions at the Tarzana accelerograph

  15. Source Scaling and Ground Motion of the 2008 Wells, Nevada, earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoo, S.; Dreger, D. S.; Mayeda, K. M.; Walter, W. R.

    2011-12-01

    Dynamic source parameters, such as a corner frequency, stress drop, and radiated energy, are one of the most critical factors controlling ground motions at higher-frequencies (generally greater than 1 Hz), which may cause damage to nearby surface structures. Hence, scaling relation of these parameters can play an important role in assessing the seismic hazard for regions in which records of ground motions from potentially damaging earthquakes are not available. On February 21, 2008 at 14:16 (UTC), a magnitude 6 earthquake occurred near Wells, Nevada, where characterized by low rate of seismicity. For their aftershocks, a marked discrepancy between the observed and predicted ground motions from empirical ground motion prediction equation was reported (Petersen et al., 2011). To evaluate and understand these observed ground motions, we investigate the dynamic source parameters and their scaling relation for this earthquake sequence. We estimate the source parameters of the earthquakes using the coda spectral ratio method (Mayeda et al., 2007) and examine the estimates with the observed spectral accelerations at higher frequencies. From the derived source parameters and scaling relation, we compute synthetic ground motions of the earthquakes using fractal composite source model (e.g., Zeng et al., 1994) and compare these synthetic ground motions with the observed ground motions and synthetic ground motions obtained from self-similar source scaling relation. In our preliminary results, we find the stress drops of the aftershocks are systematically 2-5 times lower than a stress drop of the mainshock. This agrees well with systematic overestimation of the predicted ground motions for the aftershocks. The simulated ground motions from the coda-derived scaling relation better explains the observed both weak and strong ground motions than that of from the size independent stress drop scaling relation. Assuming that the scale dependent stress drop is real, at least in some

  16. Wavelet-based multifractal analysis of earthquakes temporal distribution in Mammoth Mountain volcano, Mono County, Eastern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zamani, Ahmad; Kolahi Azar, Amir; Safavi, Ali

    2014-06-01

    This paper presents a wavelet-based multifractal approach to characterize the statistical properties of temporal distribution of the 1982-2012 seismic activity in Mammoth Mountain volcano. The fractal analysis of time-occurrence series of seismicity has been carried out in relation to seismic swarm in association with magmatic intrusion happening beneath the volcano on 4 May 1989. We used the wavelet transform modulus maxima based multifractal formalism to get the multifractal characteristics of seismicity before, during, and after the unrest. The results revealed that the earthquake sequences across the study area show time-scaling features. It is clearly perceived that the multifractal characteristics are not constant in different periods and there are differences among the seismicity sequences. The attributes of singularity spectrum have been utilized to determine the complexity of seismicity for each period. Findings show that the temporal distribution of earthquakes for swarm period was simpler with respect to pre- and post-swarm periods.

  17. Postearthquake relaxation and aftershock accumulation linearly related after the 2003 M 6.5 Chengkung, Taiwan, and the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Savage, J.C.; Yu, S.-B.

    2007-01-01

    We treat both the number of earthquakes and the deformation following a mainshock as the superposition of a steady background accumulation and the post-earthquake process. The preseismic displacement and seismicity rates ru and rE are used as estimates of the background rates. Let t be the time after the mainshock, u(t) + u0 the postseismic displacement less the background accumulation rut, and ??N(t) the observed cumulative number of postseismic earthquakes less the background accumulation rE t. For the first 160 days (duration limited by the occurrence of another nearby earthquake) following the Chengkung (M 6.5, 10 December 2003, eastern Taiwan) and the first 560 days following the Parkfield (M 6.0, 28 September 2004, central California) earthquakes u(t) + u0 is a linear function of ??N(t). The aftershock accumulation ??N(t) for both earthquakes is described by the modified Omori Law d??N/dt ?? (1 + t/??)-p with p = 0.96 and ?? = 0.03 days. Although the Chengkung earthquake involved sinistral, reverse slip on a moderately dipping fault and the Parkfield earthquake right-lateral slip on a near-vertical fault, the earthquakes share an unusual feature: both occurred on faults exhibiting interseismic fault creep at the surface. The source of the observed postseismic deformation appears to be afterslip on the coseismic rupture. The linear relation between u(t) + u0 and N(t) suggests that this afterslip also generates the aftershocks. The linear relation between u(t) + u0 and ??N(t) obtains after neither the 1999 M 7.1 Hector Mine (southern California) nor the 1999 M 7.6 Chi-Chi (central Taiwan) earthquakes, neither of which occurred on fault segments exhibiting fault creep.

  18. Comments on baseline correction of digital strong-motion data: Examples from the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boore, D.M.; Stephens, C.D.; Joyner, W.B.

    2002-01-01

    Residual displacements for large earthquakes can sometimes be determined from recordings on modern digital instruments, but baseline offsets of unknown origin make it difficult in many cases to do so. To recover the residual displacement, we suggest tailoring a correction scheme by studying the character of the velocity obtained by integration of zeroth-order-corrected acceleration and then seeing if the residual displacements are stable when the various parameters in the particular correction scheme are varied. For many seismological and engineering purposes, however, the residual displacement are of lesser importance than ground motions at periods less than about 20 sec. These ground motions are often recoverable with simple baseline correction and low-cut filtering. In this largely empirical study, we illustrate the consequences of various correction schemes, drawing primarily from digital recordings of the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake. We show that with simple processing the displacement waveforms for this event are very similar for stations separated by as much as 20 km. We also show that a strong pulse on the transverse component was radiated from the Hector Mine earthquake and propagated with little distortion to distances exceeding 170 km; this pulse leads to large response spectral amplitudes around 10 sec.

  19. 3-D P- and S-wave velocity structure and low-frequency earthquake locations in the Parkfield, California region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Xiangfang; Thurber, Clifford H.; Shelly, David R.; Harrington, Rebecca M.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Bennington, Ninfa L.; Peterson, Dana; Guo, Bin; McClement, Kara

    2016-09-01

    To refine the 3-D seismic velocity model in the greater Parkfield, California region, a new data set including regular earthquakes, shots, quarry blasts and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) was assembled. Hundreds of traces of each LFE family at two temporary arrays were stacked with time-frequency domain phase weighted stacking method to improve signal-to-noise ratio. We extend our model resolution to lower crustal depth with LFE data. Our result images not only previously identified features but also low velocity zones (LVZs) in the area around the LFEs and the lower crust beneath the southern Rinconada Fault. The former LVZ is consistent with high fluid pressure that can account for several aspects of LFE behaviour. The latter LVZ is consistent with a high conductivity zone in magnetotelluric studies. A new Vs model was developed with S picks that were obtained with a new autopicker. At shallow depth, the low Vs areas underlie the strongest shaking areas in the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. We relocate LFE families and analyse the location uncertainties with the NonLinLoc and tomoDD codes. The two methods yield similar results.

  20. Geodetic slip rate for the eastern California shear zone and the recurrence time of Mojave desert earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauber, J.; Thatcher, W.; Solomon, S.C.; Lisowski, M.

    1994-01-01

    Where the San Andreas fault passes along the southwestern margin of the Mojave desert, it exhibits a large change in trend, and the deformation associated with the Pacific/North American plate boundary is distributed broadly over a complex shear zone. The importance of understanding the partitioning of strain across this region, especially to the east of the Mojave segment of the San Andreas in a region known as the eastern California shear zone (ECSZ), was highlighted by the occurrence (on 28 June 1992) of the magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake in this zone. Here we use geodetic observations in the central Mojave desert to obtain new estimates for the rate and distribution of strain across a segment of the ECSZ, and to determine a coseismic strain drop of ~770 ??rad for the Landers earthquake. From these results we infer a strain energy recharge time of 3,500-5,000 yr for a Landers-type earthquake and a slip rate of ~12 mm yr-1 across the faults of the central Mojave. The latter estimate implies that a greater fraction of plate motion than heretofore inferred from geodetic data is accommodated across the ECSZ.

  1. San Andreas fault geometry at Desert Hot Springs, California, and its effects on earthquake hazards and groundwater

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Catchings, R.D.; Rymer, M.J.; Goldman, M.R.; Gandhok, G.

    2009-01-01

    The Mission Creek and Banning faults are two of the principal strands of the San Andreas fault zone in the northern Coachella Valley of southern California. Structural characteristics of the faults affect both regional earthquake hazards and local groundwater resources. We use seismic, gravity, and geological data to characterize the San Andreas fault zone in the vicinity of Desert Hot Springs. Seismic images of the upper 500 m of the Mission Creek fault at Desert Hot Springs show multiple fault strands distributed over a 500 m wide zone, with concentrated faulting within a central 200 m wide area of the fault zone. High-velocity (up to 5000 m=sec) rocks on the northeast side of the fault are juxtaposed against a low-velocity (6.0) earthquakes in the area (in 1948 and 1986) occurred at or near the depths (~10 to 12 km) of the merged (San Andreas) fault. Large-magnitude earthquakes that nucleate at or below the merged fault will likely generate strong shaking from guided waves along both fault zones and from amplified seismic waves in the low-velocity basin between the two fault zones. The Mission Creek fault zone is a groundwater barrier with the top of the water table varying by 60 m in depth and the aquifer varying by about 50 m in thickness across a 200 m wide zone of concentrated faulting.

  2. Offshore and onshore liquefaction at Moss Landing spit, central California - result of the October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, H.G.; Chase, T.E.; Hicks, K.R. ); Gardner-Taggart, J.; Ledbetter, M.T.; Barminski, R. ); Baxter, C. )

    1991-09-01

    As a result of the October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta (Santa Cruz Mountains, California) earthquake, liquefaction of the fluvial, estuarine, eolian, and beach sediments under a sand spit destroyed the Moss Landing Marine Laboratories and damaged other structures and utilities. Initial studies suggested that the liquefaction was a local phenomenon. More detailed offshore investigations, however, indicate that it occurred over a large area (maximum 8 km{sup 2}) during or shortly after the earthquake with movement of unconsolidated sediment toward and into the head of Monterey submarine canyon. This conclusion is supported by side-scan sonographs, high-resolution seismic-reflection and bathymetric profiles, onshore and sea-floor photographs, and underwater video tapes. Many distinct lobate features were identified on the shallow shelf. These features almost certainly were the result of the October 17 earthquake; they were subsequently destroyed by winter storms. In addition, fresh slump scars and recently dislodged mud debris were found on the upper, southern wall of Monterey submarine canyon.

  3. Are landslides in the New Madrid Seismic Zone the result of the 1811-1812 earthquake sequence or multiple prehistoric earthquakes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gold, Ryan; Williams, Robert; Jibson, Randall

    2014-05-01

    Previous research indicates that deep translational and rotational landslides along the bluffs east of the Mississippi River in western Tennessee were triggered by the M7-8 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence. Analysis of recently acquired airborne LiDAR data suggests the possibility of multiple generations of landslides, possibly triggered by older, similar magnitude earthquake sequences, which paleoliquifaction studies show occurred circa 1450 and about 900 A.D. Using these LiDAR data, we have remapped recent landslides along two sections of the bluffs: a northern section near Reelfoot Lake and a southern section near Meeman-Shelby State Park (20 km north of Memphis, Tennessee). The bare-earth, digital-elevation models derived from these LiDAR data have a resolution of 0.5 m and reveal valuable details of topography given the region's dense forest canopy. Our mapping confirms much of the previous landslide mapping, refutes a few previously mapped landslides, and reveals new, undetected landslides. Importantly, we observe that the landslide deposits in the Reelfoot region are characterized by rotated blocks with sharp uphill-facing scarps and steep headwall scarps, indicating youthful, relatively recent movement. In comparison, landslide deposits near Meeman-Shelby are muted in appearance, with headwall scarps and rotated blocks that are extensively dissected by gullies, indicating they might be an older generation of landslides. Because of these differences in morphology, we hypothesize that the landslides near Reelfoot Lake were triggered by the 1811-1812 earthquake sequence and that landslides near Meeman-Shelby resulted from shaking associated with earlier earthquake sequences. To test this hypothesis, we will evaluate differences in bluff height, local geology, vegetation, and proximity to known seismic sources. Furthermore, planned fieldwork will help evaluate whether the observed landslide displacements occurred in single earthquakes or if they might

  4. Basin Waves on a Seafloor Recording of the 1990 Upland, California, Earthquake: Implications for Ground Motions from a Larger Earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boore, D.M.

    1999-01-01

    The velocity and displacement time series from a recording on the seafloor at 74 km from the 1990 Upland earthquake (M = 5.6) are dominated by late-arriving waves with periods of 6 to 7 sec. These waves are probably surface waves traveling across the Los Angeles basin. Response spectra for the recording are in agreement with predictions from empirical regression equations and theoretical models for periods less than about 1 sec but are significantly larger than those predictions for longer periods. The longer-period spectral amplitudes are controlled by the late-arriving waves, which are not included in the theoretical models and are underrepresented in the data used in the empirical analyses. When the motions are scaled to larger magnitude, the results are in general agreement with simulations of wave propagation in the Los Angeles basin by Graves (1998).

  5. The M7 October 21, 1868 Hayward Earthquake, Northern California-140 Years Later

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brocher, T. M.; Boatwright, J.; Lienkaemper, J. J.; Schwartz, D. P.; Garcia, S.

    2007-12-01

    October 21, 2008 marks the 140th anniversary of the M7 1868 Hayward earthquake. This large earthquake, which occurred slightly before 8 AM, caused extensive damage to San Francisco Bay Area and remains the nation's 12th most lethal earthquake. Property loss was extensive and about 30 people were killed. This earthquake culminated a decade-long series of earthquakes in the Bay Area which started with an M~6 earthquake in the southern Peninsula in 1856, followed by a series of four M5.8 to M6.1 sized earthquakes along the northern Calaveras fault, and ended with a M~6.5 earthquake in the Santa Cruz Mountains in 1865. Despite this flurry of quakes, the shaking from the 1868 earthquake was the strongest that the new towns and growing cities of the Bay Area had ever experienced. The effect on the brick buildings of the time was devastating: walls collapsed in San Francisco, Oakland, and San Jose, and buildings cracked as far away as Napa, Santa Rosa, and Hollister. The area that was strongly shaken (at Modified Mercalli Intensity VII or higher) encompassed about 2,300 km2. Aftershocks continued into November 1868. Surface cracking of the ground along the southern end of the Hayward Fault was traced from Warm Springs in Fremont northward 32 km to San Leandro. As Lawson (1908) reports, "the evidence to the northward of San Leandro is not very satisfactory. The country was then unsettled, and the information consisted of reports of cow- boys riding on the range". Analysis of historical triangulation data suggest that the fault moved as far north as Berkeley, and from these data the average slip along the fault is inferred to be about 1.9 ± 0.4 meters. The paleoseismic record from the southern end of the Hayward Fault provides evidence for 10 earthquakes before 1868. The average interval between these earthquakes is 170 ± 80 years, but the last five earthquakes have had an average interval of only 140 ± 50 years. The 1868 Hayward earthquake and more recent analogs such

  6. Earthquakes, September-October 1984

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1985-01-01

    In the United States, Wyoming experienced a couple of moderate earthquakes, and off the coast of northern California, a strong earthquake shook much of the northern coast of California and parts of the Oregon coast. 

  7. Statistical Discrimination of Induced and Tectonic Earthquake Sequences in Central and Eastern US Based on Waveform Detected Catalogs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, X.; Peng, Z.

    2014-12-01

    It is now well established that extraction of fossil fuels and/or waste water disposal do cause earthquakes in Central and Eastern United States (CEUS). However, the physics underneath of the nucleation of induced earthquakes still remain elusive. In particular, do induced and tectonic earthquake sequences in CEUS share the same statistics, for example the Omori's law [Utsu et al., 1995] and the Gutenberg-Richter's law? Some studies have show that most naturally occurring earthquake sequences are driven by cascading-type triggering. Hence, they would follow the typical Gutenberg-Richter relation and Omori's aftershock decay and could be well described by multi-dimensional point-process models such as Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) [Ogata, 1988; Zhuang et al., 2012]. However, induced earthquakes are likely driven by external forcing such as injected fluid pressure, and hence would not be well described by the ETAS model [Llenos and Michael, 2013]. Existing catalogs in CEUS (e.g. the ANSS catalog) have relatively high magnitude of completeness [e.g., Van Der Elst et al., 2013] and hence may not be ideal for a detailed ETAS modeling analysis. A waveform matched filter technique has been successfully applied to detect many missing earthquakes in CEUS with a sparse network in Illinois [Yang et al., 2009] and on single station in Texas, Oklahoma and Colorado [e.g., Van Der Elst et al., 2013]. In addition, the deployment of the USArray station in CEUS also helped to expand the station coverage. In this study, we systematically detect missing events during 14 moderate-size (M>=4) earthquake sequences since 2000 in CEUS and quantify their statistical parameters (e.g. b, a, K, and p values) and spatio-temporal evolutions. Then we compare the statistical parameters and the spatio-temporal evolution pattern between induced and naturally occurring earthquake sequences to see if one or more diagnostic parameters exist. Our comprehensive analysis of earthquake sequences

  8. Tectonic implications and seismicity triggering during the 2008 Baluchistan, Pakistan earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yadav, R. B. S.; Gahalaut, V. K.; Chopra, Sumer; Shan, Bin

    2012-02-01

    A damaging and widely felt moderate earthquake (Mw 6.4) hit the rural, mountainous region of southwestern Pakistan on October 28, 2008. The main shock was followed by another earthquake of identical magnitude (Mw 6.4) on the next day. The spatial distribution of aftershocks and focal mechanism revealed a NW-SE striking rupture with right-lateral strike-slip motion which is sympathetic to the NNW-SSE striking active mapped Urghargai Fault. The occurrence of strike-slip earthquakes suggests that along with the thrust faults, strike slip faults too are present beneath the fold-and-thrust belt of Sulaiman-Kirthar ranges and accommodates some of the relative motion of the Indian and Eurasian plates. To assess the characteristics of this sequence, the statistical parameters like aftershocks temporal decay, b-value of G-R relationship, partitioning of radiated seismic energy due to aftershocks, and spatial fractal dimension (D-value) have been examined. The b-value is estimated as 1.03 ± 0.42 and suggests the tectonic genesis of the sequence and crustal heterogeneity within rock mass. The low p-value of 0.89 ± 0.07 implies slow decay of aftershocks activity which is probably an evidence for low surface heat flow. A value of spatial fractal dimension of 2.08 ± 0.02 indicates random spatial distribution and that the source is a two-dimensional plane filled-up by fractures. The static coseismic Coulomb stress changes due to the foreshock (Mw 5.3) were found to increase stress by more than 0.04 bars at the hypocenter of the main shock, thus promoting the failure. The cumulative coseismic Coulomb stress changes due to the foreshock and mainshocks suggest that most of the aftershocks occurred in the region of increased Coulomb stress, and to the SE to the mainshock rupture.

  9. Borehole strainmeter measurements spanning the 2014, Mw6.0 South Napa Earthquake, California: The effect from instrument calibration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langbein, John O.

    2015-01-01

    The 24 August 2014 Mw6.0 South Napa, California earthquake produced significant offsets on 12 borehole strainmeters in the San Francisco Bay area. These strainmeters are located between 24 and 80 km from the source and the observed offsets ranged up to 400 parts-per-billion (ppb), which exceeds their nominal precision by a factor of 100. However, the observed offsets of tidally calibrated strains differ by up to 130 ppb from predictions based on a moment tensor derived from seismic data. The large misfit can be attributed to a combination of poor instrument calibration and better modeling of the strain fit from the earthquake. Borehole strainmeters require in-situ calibration, which historically has been accomplished by comparing their measurements of Earth tides with the strain-tides predicted by a model. Although the borehole strainmeter accurately measure the deformation within the borehole, the long-wavelength strain signals from tides or other tectonic processes recorded in the borehole are modified by the presence of the borehole and the elastic properties of the grout and the instrument. Previous analyses of surface-mounted, strainmeter data and their relationship with the predicted tides suggest that tidal models could be in error by 30%. The poor fit of the borehole strainmeter data from this earthquake can be improved by simultaneously varying the components of the model tides up to 30% and making small adjustments to the point-source model of the earthquake, which reduces the RMS misfit from 130 ppb to 18 ppb. This suggests that relying on tidal models to calibrate borehole strainmeters significantly reduces their accuracy.

  10. Borehole strainmeter measurements spanning the 2014 Mw6.0 South Napa Earthquake, California: The effect from instrument calibration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Langbein, John

    2015-10-01

    The 24 August 2014 Mw6.0 South Napa, California earthquake produced significant offsets on 12 borehole strainmeters in the San Francisco Bay area. These strainmeters are located between 24 and 80 km from the source, and the observed offsets ranged up to 400 parts per billion (ppb), which exceeds their nominal precision by a factor of 100. However, the observed offsets of tidally calibrated strains differ by up to 130 ppb from predictions based on a moment tensor derived from seismic data. The large misfit can be attributed to a combination of poor instrument calibration and better modeling of the strain field from the earthquake. Borehole strainmeters require in situ calibration, which historically has been accomplished by comparing their measurements of Earth tides with the strain tides predicted by a model. Although the borehole strainmeter accurately measures the deformation within the borehole, the long-wavelength strain signals from tides or other tectonic processes recorded in the borehole are modified by the presence of the borehole and the elastic properties of the grout and the instrument. Previous analyses of surface-mounted, strainmeter data and their relationship with the predicted tides suggest that tidal models could be in error by 30%. The poor fit of the borehole strainmeter data from this earthquake can be improved by simultaneously varying the components of the model tides up to 30% and making small adjustments to the point source model of the earthquake, which reduces the RMS misfit from 130 ppb to 18 ppb. This suggests that relying on tidal models to calibrate borehole strainmeters significantly reduces their accuracy.

  11. Birth of a fault: Connecting the Kern County and Walker Pass, California, earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bawden, G.W.; Michael, A.J.; Kellogg, L.H.

    1999-01-01

    A band of seismicity transects the southern Sierra Nevada range between the northeastern end of the site of the 1952 MW (moment magnitude) 7.3 Kern County earthquake and the site of the 1946 MW 6.1 Walker Pass earthquake. Relocated earthquakes in this band, which lacks a surface expression, better delineate the northeast-trending seismic lineament and resolve complex structure near the Walker Pass mainshock. Left-lateral earthquake focal planes are rotated counterclockwise from the strike of the seismic lineament, consistent with slip on shear fractures such as those observed in the early stages of fault development in laboratory experiments. We interpret this seismic lineament as a previously unrecognized, incipient, currently blind, strike-slip fault, a unique example of a newly forming structure.

  12. Seismicity remotely triggered by the magnitude 7.3 landers, california, earthquake.

    PubMed

    Hill, D P; Reasenberg, P A; Michael, A; Arabaz, W J; Beroza, G; Brumbaugh, D; Brune, J N; Castro, R; Davis, S; Depolo, D; Ellsworth, W L; Gomberg, J; Harmsen, S; House, L; Jackson, S M; Johnston, M J; Jones, L; Keller, R; Malone, S; Munguia, L; Nava, S; Pechmann, J C; Sanford, A; Simpson, R W; Smith, R B; Stark, M; Stickney, M; Vidal, A; Walter, S; Wong, V; Zollweg, J

    1993-06-11

    The magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake of 28 June 1992 triggered a remarkably sudden and widespread increase in earthquake activity across much of the western United States. The triggered earthquakes, which occurred at distances up to 1250 kilometers (17 source dimensions) from the Landers mainshock, were confined to areas of persistent seismicity and strike-slip to normal faulting. Many of the triggered areas also are sites of geothermal and recent volcanic activity. Static stress changes calculated for elastic models of the earthquake appear to be too small to have caused the triggering. The most promising explanations involve nonlinear interactions between large dynamic strains accompanying seismic waves from the mainshock and crustal fluids (perhaps including crustal magma). PMID:17810202

  13. Chapter C. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Building Structures

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Celebi, Mehmet

    1998-01-01

    Several approaches are used to assess the performance of the built environment following an earthquake -- preliminary damage surveys conducted by professionals, detailed studies of individual structures, and statistical analyses of groups of structures. Reports of damage that are issued by many organizations immediately following an earthquake play a key role in directing subsequent detailed investigations. Detailed studies of individual structures and statistical analyses of groups of structures may be motivated by particularly good or bad performance during an earthquake. Beyond this, practicing engineers typically perform stress analyses to assess the performance of a particular structure to vibrational levels experienced during an earthquake. The levels may be determined from recorded or estimated ground motions; actual levels usually differ from design levels. If a structure has seismic instrumentation to record response data, the estimated and recorded response and behavior of the structure can be compared.

  14. Seismicity remotely triggered by the magnitude 7.3 landers, california, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hill, D.P.; Reasenberg, P.A.; Michael, A.; Arabaz, W.J.; Beroza, G.; Brumbaugh, D.; Brune, J.N.; Castro, R.; Davis, S.; Depolo, D.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Gomberg, J.; Harmsen, S.; House, L.; Jackson, S.M.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Jones, L.; Keller, Rebecca Hylton; Malone, S.; Munguia, L.; Nava, S.; Pechmann, J.C.; Sanford, A.; Simpson, R.W.; Smith, R.B.; Stark, M.; Stickney, M.; Vidal, A.; Walter, S.; Wong, V.; Zollweg, J.

    1993-01-01

    The magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake of 28 June 1992 triggered a remarkably sudden and widespread increase in earthquake activity across much of the western United States. The triggered earthquakes, which occurred at distances up to 1250 kilometers (17 source dimensions) from the Landers mainshock, were confined to areas of persistent seismicity and strike-slip to normal faulting. Many of the triggered areas also are sites of geothermal and recent volcanic activity. Static stress changes calculated for elastic models of the earthquake appear to be too small to have caused the triggering. The most promising explanations involve nonlinear interactions between large dynamic strains accompanying seismic waves from the mainshock and crustal fluids (perhaps including crustal magma).

  15. Scaling Analysis of Time Distribution between Successive Earthquakes in Aftershock Sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marekova, Elisaveta

    2016-08-01

    The earthquake inter-event time distribution is studied, using catalogs for different recent aftershock sequences. For aftershock sequences following the Modified Omori's Formula (MOF) it seems clear that the inter-event distribution is a power law. The parameters of this law are defined and they prove to be higher than the calculated value (2 - 1/p). Based on the analysis of the catalogs, it is determined that the probability densities of the inter-event time distribution collapse into a single master curve when the data is rescaled with instantaneous intensity, R(t; Mth), defined by MOF. The curve is approximated by a gamma distribution. The collapse of the data provides a clear view of aftershock-occurrence self-similarity.

  16. Near-field postseismic deformation associated with the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Savage, J.C.; Svarc, J.L.; Prescott, W.H.

    2003-01-01

    After the Landers earthquake (Mw = 7.3, 1992.489) a linear array of 10 monuments extending about 30 km N50??E on either side of the earthquake rupture plus a nearby offtrend reference monument were surveyed frequently by GPS until 2003.2. The array also spans the rupture of the subsequent Hector Mine earthquake (Mw = 7.1, 1999.792 . The pre-Landers velocities of monuments in the array relative to interior North America were estimated from earlier trilateration and very long baseline interferometry measurements. Except at the reference monument, the post-Landers velocities of the individual monuments in the array relaxed to their preseismic values within 4 years. Following the Hector Mine earthquake the velocities of the monuments relaxed to steady rates within 1 year. Those steady rates for the east components are about equal to the pre-Landers rates as is the steady rate for the north component of the one monument east of the Hector Mine rupture. However, the steady rates for the north components of the 10 monuments west of the rupture are systematically ???10 mm yr1 larger than the pre-Landers rates. The relaxation to a steady rate is approximately exponential with decay times of 0.50 ?? 0.10 year following the Landers earthquake and 0.32 ?? 0.18 year following the Hector Mine earthquake. The postearthquake motions of the Landers array following the Landers earthquake are not well approximated by the viscoelastic-coupling model of Pollitz et al. [2000]. A similar viscoelastic-coupling model [Pollitz et al., 2001] is more successful in representing the deformation after the Hector Mine earthquake.

  17. Chapter A. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Lifelines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schiff, Anshel J.

    1998-01-01

    To the general public who had their televisions tuned to watch the World Series, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake was a lifelines earthquake. It was the images seen around the world of the collapsed Cypress Street viaduct, with the frantic and heroic efforts to pull survivors from the structure that was billowing smoke; the collapsed section of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge and subsequent home video of a car plunging off the open span; and the spectacular fire in the Marina District of San Francisco fed by a broken gasline. To many of the residents of the San Francisco Bay region, the relation of lifelines to the earthquake was characterized by sitting in the dark because of power outage, the inability to make telephone calls because of network congestion, and the slow and snarled traffic. Had the public been aware of the actions of the engineers and tradespeople working for the utilities and other lifeline organizations on the emergency response and restoration of lifelines, the lifeline characteristics of this earthquake would have been even more significant. Unobserved by the public were the warlike devastation in several electrical-power substations, the 13 miles of gas-distribution lines that had to be replaced in several communities, and the more than 1,200 leaks and breaks in water mains and service connections that had to be excavated and repaired. Like the 1971 San Fernando, Calif., earthquake, which was a seminal event for activity to improve the earthquake performance of lifelines, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake demonstrated that the tasks of preparing lifelines in 'earthquake country' were incomplete-indeed, new lessons had to be learned.

  18. Earthquake location data for the southern Great Basin of Nevada and California: 1984 through 1986

    SciTech Connect

    Harmsen, S.C.; Rogers, A.M.

    1987-01-01

    This report presents data in map and table form for earthquake parameters such as hypocentral coordinates and magnitudes for earthquakes located by the southern Great Basin Seismic network for the time period January 1, 1984, through December 31, 1986. These maps show concentrations of earthquakes in regions previously noted to be seismically active, including the Pahranagat Shear Zone, Pahroc Mountains, southern Nevada Test Site, Timber Mountain, Black Mountain, Gold Mountain, Montezuma Range, and Grapevine Mountains. A concentration of earthquake activity in the Reveille Range was observed in 1986, in a previously inactive area. The northern Nevada Test Site had fewer earthquakes than a comparable area of the southern Nevada Test Site, indicating that the low-yield nuclear testing program is not currently triggering significant numbers of aftershocks. Eight microearthquakes occurred at Yucca Mountain during the 1984-1986 monitoring period. Depths of focus for well-located earthquakes continue to indicate a bimodal distribution, with peaks at 1 to 2 and 8 to 9 km below sea-level and a local minimum at 4 to 5 km. Focal mechanisms range from strike slip to normal slip. No dependence of slip mode on depth or magnitude is evident. 8 refs., 46 figs., 5 tabs.

  19. Chapter D. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Aftershocks and Postseismic Effects

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reasenberg, Paul A.

    1997-01-01

    While the damaging effects of the earthquake represent a significant social setback and economic loss, the geophysical effects have produced a wealth of data that have provided important insights into the structure and mechanics of the San Andreas Fault system. Generally, the period after a large earthquake is vitally important to monitor. During this part of the seismic cycle, the primary fault and the surrounding faults, rock bodies, and crustal fluids rapidly readjust in response to the earthquake's sudden movement. Geophysical measurements made at this time can provide unique information about fundamental properties of the fault zone, including its state of stress and the geometry and frictional/rheological properties of the faults within it. Because postseismic readjustments are rapid compared with corresponding changes occurring in the preseismic period, the amount and rate of information that is available during the postseismic period is relatively high. From a geophysical viewpoint, the occurrence of the Loma Prieta earthquake in a section of the San Andreas fault zone that is surrounded by multiple and extensive geophysical monitoring networks has produced nothing less than a scientific bonanza. The reports assembled in this chapter collectively examine available geophysical observations made before and after the earthquake and model the earthquake's principal postseismic effects. The chapter covers four broad categories of postseismic effect: (1) aftershocks; (2) postseismic fault movements; (3) postseismic surface deformation; and (4) changes in electrical conductivity and crustal fluids.

  20. Slip partitioning of the Calaveras fault, California, and prospects for future earthquakes

    SciTech Connect

    Oppenheimer, D.H.; Bakun, W.H.; Lindh, A.G. )

    1990-06-10

    Examination of main shock and microearthquake data from the Calaveras fault during the last 20 years reveals that main shock hypocenters occur at depths of 8-9 km near the base of the zone of microearthquakes. The spatial pattern of pre-main shock microseismicity surrounding the Coyote Lake and Morgan Hill hypocenters is similar to the pattern of the post-main shock microseismicity. Microseismicity extends between depths of 4 and 10 km and defines zones of concentrated microseismicity and aseismic zones. Estimates of the fault regions which slipped during the Coyote Lake Morgan Hill earthquakes as derived from seismic radiation coincide with zones which are otherwise aseismic. The authors propose that these persistent aseismic zones represent stuck patches which slip only during moderate earthquakes. From the pattern of microearthquake locations they recognize six aseismic zones where they expect future main shocks will rupture the Calaveras fault. From an analysis of historic seismic data they establish the main shock rupture history for each aseismic zone and identify two zones that are the most likely sites for the next M > 5 earthquakes. The first zone is located near Gilroy and was last ruptured by a M5.2 earthquake in 1949. The second zone is located south of Calaveras Reservoir and north of the 1988 M5.1 Alum Rock earthquake. It has not slipped seismically since at least 1903, and the size of the aseismic region is sufficiently large to sustain a M5.5 earthquake.

  1. School Site Preparedness for the Safety of California's Children K-12. Official Report of the Northridge Earthquake Task Force on Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    California State Legislature, Sacramento. Senate Select Committee on the Northridge Earthquake.

    This report asserts that disaster preparedness at all school sites must become a major and immediate priority. Should a disaster equaling the magnitude of the Northridge earthquake occur, the current varying levels of site preparedness may not adequately protect California's children. The report describes why the state's children are not safe and…

  2. The Pegasus Bay aftershock sequence of the Mw 7.1 Darfield (Canterbury), New Zealand earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ristau, John; Holden, Caroline; Kaiser, Anna; Williams, Charles; Bannister, Stephen; Fry, Bill

    2013-10-01

    The Pegasus Bay aftershock sequence is the most recent aftershock sequence of the 2010 September 3 UTC moment magnitude (Mw) 7.1 Darfield earthquake in the Canterbury region of New Zealand. The Pegasus Bay aftershock sequence began on 2011 December 23 UTC with three events of Mw 5.4-5.9 located in the offshore region of Pegasus Bay, east of Christchurch city. We present a summary of key aspects of the sequence derived using various geophysical methods. Relocations carried out using double-difference tomography show a well-defined NNE-SSW to NE-SW series of aftershocks with most of the activity occurring at depths >5 km and an average depth of ˜10 km. Regional moment tensor solutions calculated for the Pegasus Bay sequence indicate that the vast majority (45 of 53 events) are reverse-faulting events with an average P-axis azimuth of 125°. Strong-motion data inversion favours a SE-dipping fault plane for the largest event (Mw 5.9) with a slip patch of 18 km × 15 km and a maximum slip of 0.8 m at 3.5 km depth. Peak ground accelerations ranging up to 0.98 g on the vertical component were recorded during the sequence, and the largest event produced horizontal accelerations of 0.2-0.4 g in the Christchurch central business district. Apparent stress estimates for the two largest events are 1.1 MPa (Mw 5.9) and 0.2 MPa (Mw 5.8), which are compatible with global averages, although lower than other large events in the Canterbury aftershock sequence. Coulomb stress analysis indicates that previous large earthquakes in the Canterbury sequence generate Coulomb stress increases for the two events only at relatively shallow depths (3-5 km). At greater depths, Coulomb stress decreases are predicted at the locations of the two events. The trend of the aftershocks is similar to mapped reverse faults north of Christchurch, and the high number of reverse-faulting mechanisms suggests that similar reverse-faulting structures are present in the offshore region east of Christchurch.

  3. Estimating Spatially Variable Parameters of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nandan, Shyam; Ouillon, Guy; Sornette, Didier; Wiemer, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    The ETAS model is widely employed to model the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes, generally using spatially invariant parameters, which is most likely a gross simplification considering the extremely heterogeneous structure of the Earth's crust. We propose an efficient method for the estimation of spatially varying parameters, using an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm and spatial Voronoi tessellations. We assume that each Voronoi cell is characterized by a set of eight constant ETAS parameters. For a given number of randomly distributed cells, Vi=1 to N, we jointly invert the ETAS parameters within each cell using an EM algorithm. This process is progressively repeated several times for a given N (which controls the complexity), which is itself increased incrementally. We use the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to rank all the inverted models given their likelihood and complexity and select the top 1% models to compute the average model at any location. Using a synthetic catalog, we also check that the proposed method correctly inverts the known parameters. We apply the proposed method to earthquakes (M>=3) included in the ANSS catalog that occurred within the time period 1981-2016 in the spatial polygon defined by RELM/CSEP around California. The results indicate significant spatial variation of the ETAS parameters. Using these spatially variable estimates of ETAS parameters, we are better equipped to answer some important questions: (1) What is the seismic hazard (both long- and short-term) in a given region? (2) What kind of earthquakes dominate triggering? (3) are there regions where earthquakes are most likely preceded by foreshocks? Last but not the least, a possible correlation of the spatially varying ETAS parameters with spatially variable geophysical properties can lead to an improved understanding of the physics of earthquake triggering beside providing physical meaning to the parameters of the purely statistical ETAS model.

  4. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group: a unique organization promoting earthquake and tsunami resilience on California's North Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dengler, L.; Henderson, C.; Larkin, D.; Nicolini, T.; Ozaki, V.

    2012-12-01

    The Northern California counties of Del Norte, Humboldt, and Mendocino account for over 30% of California's coastline and is one of the most seismically active areas of the contiguous 48 states. The region is at risk from earthquakes located on- and offshore and from tsunamis generated locally from faults associated with the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) and from distant sources elsewhere in the Pacific. In 1995 the California Geological Survey (CGS) published a scenario for a CSZ earthquake that included both strong ground shaking effects and a tsunami. As a result of the scenario, the Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of government agencies, tribes, service groups, academia and the private sector, was formed to coordinate and promote earthquake and tsunami hazard awareness and mitigation in the three-county region. The RCTWG and its member agencies projects include education/outreach products and programs, tsunami hazard mapping, signage and siren planning. Since 2008, RCTWG has worked with the California Emergency Management Agency (Cal EMA) in conducting tsunami warning communications tests on the North Coast. In 2007, RCTWG members helped develop and carry out the first tsunami training exercise at FEMA's Emergency Management Institute in Emmitsburg, MD. The RCTWG has facilitated numerous multi-agency, multi-discipline coordinated exercises, and RCTWG county tsunami response plans have been a model for other regions of the state and country. Eight North Coast communities have been recognized as TsunamiReady by the National Weather Service, including the first National Park the first State Park and only tribe in California to be so recognized. Over 500 tsunami hazard zone signs have been posted in the RCTWG region since 2008. Eight assessment surveys from 1993 to 2010 have tracked preparedness actions and personal awareness of earthquake and tsunami hazards in the county and additional surveys have tracked public awareness and tourist

  5. The Mw 5.8 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake of August 2011 and aftershock sequence: constraints on earthquake source parameters and fault geometry

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McNamara, Daniel E.; Benz, H.M.; Herrmann, Robert B.; Bergman, Eric A.; Earle, Paul; Meltzer, Anne; Withers, Mitch; Chapman, Martin

    2014-01-01

    The Mw 5.8 earthquake of 23 August 2011 (17:51:04 UTC) (moment, M0 5.7×1017  N·m) occurred near Mineral, Virginia, within the central Virginia seismic zone and was felt by more people than any other earthquake in United States history. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received 148,638 felt reports from 31 states and 4 Canadian provinces. The USGS PAGER system estimates as many as 120,000 people were exposed to shaking intensity levels of IV and greater, with approximately 10,000 exposed to shaking as high as intensity VIII. Both regional and teleseismic moment tensor solutions characterize the earthquake as a northeast‐striking reverse fault that nucleated at a depth of approximately 7±2  km. The distribution of reported macroseismic intensities is roughly ten times the area of a similarly sized earthquake in the western United States (Horton and Williams, 2012). Near‐source and far‐field damage reports, which extend as far away as Washington, D.C., (135 km away) and Baltimore, Maryland, (200 km away) are consistent with an earthquake of this size and depth in the eastern United States (EUS). Within the first few days following the earthquake, several government and academic institutions installed 36 portable seismograph stations in the epicentral region, making this among the best‐recorded aftershock sequences in the EUS. Based on modeling of these data, we provide a detailed description of the source parameters of the mainshock and analysis of the subsequent aftershock sequence for defining the fault geometry, area of rupture, and observations of the aftershock sequence magnitude–frequency and temporal distribution. The observed slope of the magnitude–frequency curve or b‐value for the aftershock sequence is consistent with previous EUS studies (b=0.75), suggesting that most of the accumulated strain was released by the mainshock. The aftershocks define a rupture that extends between approximately 2–8 km in depth and 8–10 km along

  6. Chapter F. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Marina District

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Rourke, Thomas D.

    1992-01-01

    During the earthquake, a total land area of about 4,300 km2 was shaken with seismic intensities that can cause significant damage to structures. The area of the Marina District of San Francisco is only 4.0 km2--less than 0.1 percent of the area most strongly affected by the earthquake--but its significance with respect to engineering, seismology, and planning far outstrips its proportion of shaken terrain and makes it a centerpiece for lessons learned from the earthquake. The Marina District provides perhaps the most comprehensive case history of seismic effects at a specific site developed for any earthquake. The reports assembled in this chapter, which provide an account of these seismic effects, constitute a unique collection of studies on site, as well as infrastructure and societal, response that cover virtually all aspects of the earthquake, ranging from incoming ground waves to the outgoing airwaves used for emergency communication. The Marina District encompasses the area bounded by San Francisco Bay on the north, the Presidio on the west, and Lombard Street and Van Ness Avenue on the south and east, respectively. Nearly all of the earthquake damage in the Marina District, however, occurred within a considerably smaller area of about 0.75 km2, bounded by San Francisco Bay and Baker, Chestnut, and Buchanan Streets. At least five major aspects of earthquake response in the Marina District are covered by the reports in this chapter: (1) dynamic site response, (2) soil liquefaction, (3) lifeline performance, (4) building performance, and (5) emergency services.

  7. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Societal Response

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coordinated by Mileti, Dennis S.

    1993-01-01

    Professional Paper 1553 describes how people and organizations responded to the earthquake and how the earthquake impacted people and society. The investigations evaluate the tools available to the research community to measure the nature, extent, and causes of damage and losses. They describe human behavior during and immediately after the earthquake and how citizens participated in emergency response. They review the challenges confronted by police and fire departments and disruptions to transbay transportations systems. And they survey the challenges of post-earthquake recovery. Some significant findings were: * Loma Prieta provided the first test of ATC-20, the red, yellow, and green tagging of buildings. It successful application has led to widespread use in other disasters including the September 11, 2001, New York City terrorist incident. * Most people responded calmly and without panic to the earthquake and acted to get themselves to a safe location. * Actions by people to help alleviate emergency conditions were proportional to the level of need at the community level. * Some solutions caused problems of their own. The police perimeter around the Cypress Viaduct isolated businesses from their customers leading to a loss of business and the evacuation of employees from those businesses hindered the movement of supplies to the disaster scene. * Emergency transbay ferry service was established 6 days after the earthquake, but required constant revision of service contracts and schedules. * The Loma Prieta earthquake produced minimal disruption to the regional economy. The total economic disruption resulted in maximum losses to the Gross Regional Product of $725 million in 1 month and $2.9 billion in 2 months, but 80% of the loss was recovered during the first 6 months of 1990. Approximately 7,100 workers were laid off.

  8. Surface faulting near Livermore, California, associated with the January 1980 earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bonilla, Manuel G.; Lienkaemper, James J.; Tinsley, John C.

    1980-01-01

    The earthquakes of 24 January (Ms 5.8) 1980 north of Livermore, California, and 26 January (Ms 5.2), were accompanied by surface faulting in the Greenville fault zone and apparently in the Las Positas fault zone also. The surface faulting was discontinuous and of small displacement. The main rupture within the Greenville fault zone trended about N.38°W. It was at least 4.2 km long and may have extended southward to Interstate Highway 580, giving a possible length of 6.2 km; both of these lengths included more gaps than observed surface rupture. Maximum displacements measured by us were about 25 mm of right slip (including afterslip through 28 January); vertical components of as much as 50 mm were seen locally, but these included gravity effects of unknown amount. The main break within the Greenville fault zones is very close to a fault strand mapped by Herd (1977, and unpublished data). A subsidiary break within the Greenville fault zone was about 0.5 km. long, had a general trend of N.46°W., and lay 0.12 to 0.25 km east of the main break. It was characterized by extension of as much as 40 mm and right slip of as much as 20 mm. This break was no more than 25 m from a fault mapped by Herd (unpublished data). Another break within the Greenville fault zone lay about 0.3 km southwest of the projection of the main break and trended about N33°W. It was at least 0.3 km long and showed mostly extension, but at several places a right-lateral component (up to 5 mm) was seen. This break was 80 to 100 m from a strand of the Greenville fault mapped by Herd (1977). Extensional fractures within the Greenville fault zone on the frontage roads north and south of Interstate Highway 580 may be related to regional extension or other processes, but do not seem to have resulted from faulting of the usual kind. One exception in this group is a fracture at the east side of Livermore valley which showed progressive increase in right-lateral displacement in February and March, 1980, and

  9. Rate-and-State Southern California Earthquake Forecasts: Resolving Stress Singularities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strader, A. E.; Jackson, D. D.

    2014-12-01

    In previous studies, we pseudo-prospectively evaluated time-dependent Coulomb stress earthquake forecasts, based on rate-and-state friction (Toda and Enescu, 2011 and Dieterich, 1996), against an ETAS null hypothesis (Zhuang et al., 2002). At the 95% confidence interval, we found that the stress-based forecast failed to outperform the ETAS forecast during the first eight weeks following the 10/16/1999 Hector Mine earthquake, in both earthquake number and spatial distribution. The rate-and-state forecast was most effective in forecasting far-field events (earthquakes occurring at least 50km away from modeled active faults). Near active faults, where most aftershocks occurred, stress singularities arising from modeled fault section boundaries obscured the Coulomb stress field. In addition to yielding physically unrealistic stress quantities, the stress singularities arising from the slip model often failed to indicate potential fault asperity locations inferred from aftershock distributions. Here, we test the effects of these stress singularities on the rate-and-state forecast's effectiveness, as well as mitigate stress uncertainties near active faults. We decrease the area significantly impacted by stress singularities by increasing the number of fault patches and introducing tapered slip at fault section boundaries, representing displacement as a high-resolution step function. Using recent seismicity distributions to relocate fault asperities, we also invert seismicity for a fault displacement model with higher resolution than the original slip distribution, where areas of positive static Coulomb stress change coincide with earthquake locations.

  10. Geodetic measurement of deformation in the Loma Prieta, California earthquake with Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI)

    SciTech Connect

    Clark, T.A.; Ma, C.; Sauber, J.M.; Ryan, J.W. ); Gordon, D.; Caprette, D.S. ); Shaffer, D.B.; Vandenberg, N.R. )

    1990-07-01

    Following the Loma Prieta earthquake, two mobile Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) systems operated by the NASA Crustal Dynamics Project and the NOAA National Geodetic Survey were deployed at three previously established VLBI sites in the earthquake area: Fort Ord (near Monterey), the Presidio (in San Francisco) and Point Reyes. From repeated VLBI occupations of these sites since 1983, the pre-earthquake rates of deformation have been determined with respect to a North American reference frame with 1{sigma} formal standard errors of {approximately}1 mm/yr. The VLBI measurements immediately following the earthquake showed that the Fort Ord site was displaced 49 {plus minus} 4 mm at an azimuth of 11 {plus minus} 4{degree} and that the Presidio site was displaced 12 {plus minus} 5 mm at an azimuth of 148 {plus minus} 13{degree}. No anomalous change was detected at Point Reyes with 1{sigma} uncertainty of 4 mm. The estimated displacements at Fort Ord and the Presidio are consistent with the static displacements predicted on the basis of a coseismic slip model in which slip on the southern segment is shallower than slip on the more northern segment is shallower than slip on the more northern segment of the fault rupture. The authors also give the Cartesian positions at epoch 1990.0 of a set of VLBI fiducial stations and the three mobile sites in the vicinity of the earthquake.

  11. Draft Genome Sequence of "Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus" from a Citrus Tree in San Gabriel, California.

    PubMed

    Wu, F; Kumagai, L; Liang, G; Deng, X; Zheng, Z; Keremane, M; Chen, J

    2015-12-23

    The draft genome sequence of "Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus" strain SGCA5 from an orange citrus tree in San Gabriel, California, is reported here. SGCA5 has a genome size of 1,201,445 bp, a G+C content of 36.4%, 1,152 predicted open reading frames (ORFs), and 42 RNA genes.

  12. Draft genome sequence of “Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum” from a single potato psyllid in California

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The draft genome sequence of “Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum” strain RSTM from a potato psyllid (Bactericera cockerelli) in California is reported. The RSTM strain has the genome size of 1,286,787 bp, GC content of 35.1%, 1,211 predicted open reading frames (ORFs), and 43 RNA genes....

  13. Draft Genome Sequence of "Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus" from a Citrus Tree in San Gabriel, California.

    PubMed

    Wu, F; Kumagai, L; Liang, G; Deng, X; Zheng, Z; Keremane, M; Chen, J

    2015-01-01

    The draft genome sequence of "Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus" strain SGCA5 from an orange citrus tree in San Gabriel, California, is reported here. SGCA5 has a genome size of 1,201,445 bp, a G+C content of 36.4%, 1,152 predicted open reading frames (ORFs), and 42 RNA genes. PMID:26701083

  14. A draft genome sequence of “Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus” from California, USA

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The draft genome sequence of “Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus” strain HHCA, collected from a lemon tree in California, USA, is reported. The HHCA strain has a genome size of 1,118,244 bp, with G+C content of 36.6%. The HHCA genome encodes 1,191 predicted open reading frames and 51 RNA genes....

  15. De Novo Genome Sequence of "Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum" from a Single Potato Psyllid in California.

    PubMed

    Wu, F; Deng, X; Liang, G; Wallis, C; Trumble, J T; Prager, S; Chen, J

    2015-01-01

    The draft genome sequence of "Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum" strain RSTM from a potato psyllid (Bactericera cockerelli) in California is reported here. The RSTM strain has a genome size of 1,286,787 bp, a G+C content of 35.1%, 1,211 predicted open reading frames (ORFs), and 43 RNA genes. PMID:26679599

  16. Cataloging the 1811-1812 New Madrid, central U.S., earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.

    2009-01-01

    The three principal New Madrid, central U.S., mainshocks of 1811-1812 were followed by extensive aftershock sequences that included numerous felt events. Although no instrumental data are available for the sequence, historical accounts provide information that can be used to estimate magnitudes and locations for the large aftershocks as well as the mainshocks. Several detailed eyewitness accounts of the sequence provide sufficient information to identify times and rough magnitude estimates for a number of aftershocks that have not been analyzed previously. I also use three extended compilations of felt events to explore the overall sequence productivity. Although one generally cannot estimate magnitudes or locations for individual events, the intensity distributions of recent, instrumentally recorded earthquakes in the region provide a basis for estimation of the magnitude distribution of 1811-1812 aftershocks. The distribution is consistent with a b-value distribution. I estimate Mw 6-6.3 for the three largest identifiable aftershocks, apart from the so-called dawn aftershock on 16 December 1811.

  17. Preseismic and coseismic deformation associated with the Coyote Lake, California, earthquake.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    King, N.E.; Savage, J.C.; Lisowski, M.; Prescott, W.H.

    1981-01-01

    The Coyote Lake earthquake (ML=5.9; August 6, 1979; epicenter c100 km SE of San Francisco) occurred on the Calaveras fault within a geodetic network that had been surveyed annually since 1972 to monitor strain accumulation. The rupture surface as defined by aftershocks is a vertical rectangle 20 km in length extending from a depth of 4 km to c12 km. The observed deformation of the geodetic network constrains the average slip to be 0.33 + or - 0.05m right lateral. Although the geodetic data furnished an exceptionally detailed picture of the pre-earthquake deformation, no significant premonitory anomaly associated with the Coyote Lake earthquake can be identified.-Authors

  18. Triggered Fault Slip in Southern California Associated with the 2010 Sierra El Mayor-Cucapah, Baja California, Mexico, Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rymer, M. J.; Treiman, J. A.; Kendrick, K. J.; Lienkaemper, J. J.; Wei, M.; Weldon, R. J.; Bilham, R. G.; Fielding, E. J.

    2010-12-01

    Surface fracturing (triggered slip) occurred in the central Salton Trough and to the southwest, in the Yuha Desert area—all in association with the 4 April 2010 (M7.2) El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake and its aftershocks. Triggered slip in the central Salton Trough occurred on the ‘frequent movers’: the southern San Andreas, Coyote Creek, Superstition Hills, and Imperial Faults, all of which have slipped in previous moderate to large, local and regional earthquakes in the past five decades. Other faults in the central Salton Trough that also slipped in 2010 include the Wienert Fault (southeastern section of the Superstition Hills Fault), the Kalin Fault (in the Brawley Seismic Zone), and the Brawley Fault Zone; triggered slip had not been reported on these faults in the past. Geologic measures of slip on faults in the central Salton Trough ranged from 1 to 18 mm, and everywhere was located where previous primary (tectonic) or triggered slip has occurred. Triggered slip in the Yuha Desert area occurred along at least two dozen faults, only some of which were known before the 4 April 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. From east to northwest, slip occurred in seven general areas; 1) in the Northern Centinela Fault Zone (newly named), 2) along unnamed faults south of Pinto Wash, 3) along the Yuha Fault (newly named), 4) along both east and west branches of the Laguna Salada Fault, 5) along the Yuha Well Fault Zone (newly revised name), 6) along the Ocotillo Fault (newly named), and 7) along the southeastern-most section of the Elsinore Fault. Faults that slipped in the Yuha Desert area include northwest-trending right-lateral faults, northeast-trending left-lateral faults, and north-south faults, some of which had dominantly vertical slip. Triggered slip along the Ocotillo and Elsinore Faults occurred only in association with the 14 June 2010 (M5.7) aftershock, which also initiated slip along other faults near the town of Ocotillo. Triggered slip on faults in the Yuha

  19. The 2007 Tocopilla earthquake and its aftershock sequence - A subduction zone earthquake at the edge of the northern Chile seimic gap

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eggert, S.; Sobiesiak, M.; Shirzaei, M.

    2010-12-01

    On 14 November 2007 a large Mw 7.7 earthquake occurred in the region of Tocopilla in Northern Chile. The earthquake took place in the southern end of the Northern Chile seismic gap which is supposed to be at the end of its seismic cycle. Studying the event and its aftershock sequence will provide closer insight into the behavior of a subduction zone earthquake at the edge of a subduction zone segment. We present a comprehensive study of the rupture area combining seismic and geodetic data. The aftershock sequence following the earthquake was very well recorded by a local seismic network of 34 short period and broad band stations. The spatial distribution of the aftershock sequence shows a concentration of aftershocks around the north-western part of the Mejillones Peninsula and along the coast up to the Río Loa. The distribution into depth shows that the majority of the hypocenters are located along the subduction interface, reaching down to ~ 50 km depth. In the western part, the aftershock sequence splits into two branches, one heading towards the trench, the other bending into the crust in front of the Mejillones Peninsula. These seismic observations lead to the conclusion that the fault rupture propagated towards the south-west with a fault plane of about 150 km length leaving the shallow part in the north west probably unbroken. To better understand the behavior of the aftershock distribution we model the Coulomb stress transfer along the fault plane. The results show that stresses are increased in the southern part of the rupture area where we find a high concentration of aftershocks. This is consistent with the calculated energy release that shows two main patches along the plate interface rupturing from north to south. The 2007 Tocopilla earthquake is the first large event that occurred inside the Northern Chile seismic gap since the 1877 Iquique event. The rupture process stopped underneath the Mejillones Peninsula, a proposed segment boundary along the

  20. Statistical monitoring of aftershock sequences: a case study of the 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogata, Yosihiko; Tsuruoka, Hiroshi

    2016-03-01

    Early forecasting of aftershocks has become realistic and practical because of real-time detection of hypocenters. This study illustrates a statistical procedure for monitoring aftershock sequences to detect anomalies to increase the probability gain of a significantly large aftershock or even an earthquake larger than the main shock. In particular, a significant lowering (relative quiescence) in aftershock activity below the level predicted by the Omori-Utsu formula or the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model is sometimes followed by a large earthquake in a neighboring region. As an example, we detected significant lowering relative to the modeled rate after approximately 1.7 days after the main shock in the aftershock sequence of the Mw7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake of April 25, 2015. The relative quiescence lasted until the May 12, 2015, M7.3 Kodari earthquake that occurred at the eastern end of the primary aftershock zone. Space-time plots including the transformed time can indicate the local places where aftershock activity lowers (the seismicity shadow). Thus, the relative quiescence can be hypothesized to be related to stress shadowing caused by probable slow slips. In addition, the aftershock productivity of the M7.3 Kodari earthquake is approximately twice as large as that of the M7.8 main shock.

  1. Acceleration and volumetric strain generated by the Parkfield 2004 earthquake on the GEOS strong-motion array near Parkfield, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Borcherdt, Rodger D.; Johnston, Malcolm J.S.; Dietel, Christopher; Glassmoyer, Gary; Myren, Doug; Stephens, Christopher

    2004-01-01

    An integrated array of 11 General Earthquake Observation System (GEOS) stations installed near Parkfield, CA provided on scale broad-band, wide-dynamic measurements of acceleration and volumetric strain of the Parkfield earthquake (M 6.0) of September 28, 2004. Three component measurements of acceleration were obtained at each of the stations. Measurements of collocated acceleration and volumetric strain were obtained at four of the stations. Measurements of velocity at most sites were on scale only for the initial P-wave arrival. When considered in the context of the extensive set of strong-motion recordings obtained on more than 40 analog stations by the California Strong-Motion Instrumentation Program (Shakal, et al., 2004 http://www.quake.ca.gov/cisn-edc) and those on the dense array of Spudich, et al, (1988), these recordings provide an unprecedented document of the nature of the near source strong motion generated by a M 6.0 earthquake. The data set reported herein provides the most extensive set of near field broad band wide dynamic range measurements of acceleration and volumetric strain for an earthquake as large as M 6 of which the authors are aware. As a result considerable interest has been expressed in these data. This report is intended to describe the data and facilitate its use to resolve a number of scientific and engineering questions concerning earthquake rupture processes and resultant near field motions and strains. This report provides a description of the array, its scientific objectives and the strong-motion recordings obtained of the main shock. The report provides copies of the uncorrected and corrected data. Copies of the inferred velocities, displacements, and Psuedo velocity response spectra are provided. Digital versions of these recordings are accessible with information available through the internet at several locations: the National Strong-Motion Program web site (http://agram.wr.usgs.gov/), the COSMOS Virtual Data Center Web site

  2. The 1989 earthquake swarm beneath Mammoth Mountain, California: an initial look at the 4 May through 30 September activity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hill, D.P.

    1990-01-01

    Mammoth Mountain is a 50 000- to 200 000-yr-old cumulovolcano standing on the southwestern rim of Long Valley in eastern California. On 4 May 1989, two M=1 earthquakes beneath the south flank of the mountain marked the onset of a swarm that has continued for more than 6 months. In addition to its longevity, noteworthy aspects of this persistent swarm are described. These aspects of the swarm, together with its location along the southern extension of the youthful Mono-Inyo volcanic chain, which last erupted 500 to 600 yr ago, point to a magmatic source for the modest but persistent influx of strain energy into the crust beneath Mammoth Mountain. -from Authors

  3. 3D Spontaneous Rupture Models of Large Earthquakes on the Hayward Fault, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barall, M.; Harris, R. A.; Simpson, R. W.

    2008-12-01

    We are constructing 3D spontaneous rupture computer simulations of large earthquakes on the Hayward and central Calaveras faults. The Hayward fault has a geologic history of producing many large earthquakes (Lienkaemper and Williams, 2007), with its most recent large event a M6.8 earthquake in 1868. Future large earthquakes on the Hayward fault are not only possible, but probable (WGCEP, 2008). Our numerical simulation efforts use information about the complex 3D fault geometry of the Hayward and Calaveras faults and information about the geology and physical properties of the rocks that surround the Hayward and Calaveras faults (Graymer et al., 2005). Initial stresses on the fault surface are inferred from geodetic observations (Schmidt et al., 2005), seismological studies (Hardebeck and Aron, 2008), and from rate-and- state simulations of the interseismic interval (Stuart et al., 2008). In addition, friction properties on the fault surface are inferred from laboratory measurements of adjacent rock types (Morrow et al., 2008). We incorporate these details into forward 3D computer simulations of dynamic rupture propagation, using the FaultMod finite-element code (Barall, 2008). The 3D fault geometry is constructed using a mesh-morphing technique, which starts with a vertical planar fault and then distorts the entire mesh to produce the desired fault geometry. We also employ a grid-doubling technique to create a variable-resolution mesh, with the smallest elements located in a thin layer surrounding the fault surface, which provides the higher resolution needed to model the frictional behavior of the fault. Our goals are to constrain estimates of the lateral and depth extent of future large Hayward earthquakes, and to explore how the behavior of large earthquakes may be affected by interseismic stress accumulation and aseismic slip.

  4. Further evidence of localized geomagnetic field changes before the 1974 Thanksgiving Day Earthquake, Hollister, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Paul M.; Jackson, David D.; Johnston, Malcolm J. S.

    1980-07-01

    Seven weeks prior to the M=5.1 Hollister, Calif., Thanksgiving Day earthquake of 28 November, 1974, an anomalous magnetic variation was observed at one of the magnetometers of the USGS array. The anomaly lasted for about three weeks. Recently developed methods of reducing noise on magnetic records reveal that anomalous magnetic changes occurred at about the same time at three, of the six stations analysed. Such changes have not been seen either previously or subsequently. The largest variation occurred at the two stations closest to the earthquake, but a change also occurred at a station 44 km to the south.

  5. Further evidence of localized geomagnetic field changes before the 1974 Thanksgiving Day earthquake, Hollister, California

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, P.M.; Jackson, D.D.; Johnston, M.J.S.

    1980-07-01

    Seven weeks prior to he M=5.1 Hollister, Calif., Thanksgiving Day earthquake of 28 November, 1974, and anomalous magnetic variation was observed at one of the magnetometers of the USGS array. The anomaly lasted for about three weeks. Recently developed methods or reducing noise on magnetic records reveal that anomalous magnetic changes occurred at about the same time at three of the six stations analysed. Such changes have not been seen either previously or subsequently. The largest variation occurred at the two stations closest to the earthquake, but a change also occurred at a station 44 km to the south.

  6. Chapter A. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Strong Ground Motion

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Borcherdt, Roger D.

    1994-01-01

    Strong ground motion generated by the Loma Prieta, Calif., earthquake (MS~7.1) of October 17, 1989, resulted in at least 63 deaths, more than 3,757 injuries, and damage estimated to exceed $5.9 billion. Strong ground motion severely damaged critical lifelines (freeway overpasses, bridges, and pipelines), caused severe damage to poorly constructed buildings, and induced a significant number of ground failures associated with liquefaction and landsliding. It also caused a significant proportion of the damage and loss of life at distances as far as 100 km from the epicenter. Consequently, understanding the characteristics of the strong ground motion associated with the earthquake is fundamental to understanding the earthquake's devastating impact on society. The papers assembled in this chapter address this problem. Damage to vulnerable structures from the earthquake varied substantially with the distance from the causative fault and the type of underlying geologic deposits. Most of the damage and loss of life occurred in areas underlain by 'soft soil'. Quantifying these effects is important for understanding the tragic concentrations of damage in such areas as Santa Cruz and the Marina and Embarcadero Districts of San Francisco, and the failures of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge and the Interstate Highway 880 overpass. Most importantly, understanding these effects is a necessary prerequisite for improving mitigation measures for larger earthquakes likely to occur much closer to densely urbanized areas in the San Francisco Bay region. The earthquake generated an especially important data set for understanding variations in the severity of strong ground motion. Instrumental strong-motion recordings were obtained at 131 sites located from about 6 to 175 km from the rupture zone. This set of recordings, the largest yet collected for an event of this size, was obtained from sites on various geologic deposits, including a unique set on 'soft soil' deposits

  7. Viscoelastic flow in the lower crust after the 1992 landers, california, earthquake

    PubMed

    Deng; Gurnis; Kanamori; Hauksson

    1998-11-27

    Space geodesy showed that broad-scale postseismic deformation occurred after the 1992 Landers earthquake. Three-dimensional modeling shows that afterslip can only explain one horizontal component of the postseismic deformation, whereas viscoelastic flow can explain the horizontal and near-vertical displacements. The viscosity of a weak, about 10-km-thick layer, in the lower crust beneath the rupture zone that controls the rebound is about 10(18) pascal seconds. The viscoelastic behavior of the lower crust may help to explain the extensional structures observed in the Basin and Range province and it may be used for the analysis of earthquake hazard. PMID:9831556

  8. Viscoelastic flow in the lower crust after the 1992 landers, california, earthquake

    PubMed

    Deng; Gurnis; Kanamori; Hauksson

    1998-11-27

    Space geodesy showed that broad-scale postseismic deformation occurred after the 1992 Landers earthquake. Three-dimensional modeling shows that afterslip can only explain one horizontal component of the postseismic deformation, whereas viscoelastic flow can explain the horizontal and near-vertical displacements. The viscosity of a weak, about 10-km-thick layer, in the lower crust beneath the rupture zone that controls the rebound is about 10(18) pascal seconds. The viscoelastic behavior of the lower crust may help to explain the extensional structures observed in the Basin and Range province and it may be used for the analysis of earthquake hazard.

  9. Chapter E. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Geologic Setting and Crustal Structure

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wells, Ray E.

    2004-01-01

    Although some scientists considered the Ms=7.1 Loma Prieta, Calif., earthquake of 1989 to be an anticipated event, some aspects of the earthquake were surprising. It occurred 17 km beneath the Santa Cruz Mountains along a left-stepping restraining bend in the San Andreas fault system. Rupture on the southwest-dipping fault plane consisted of subequal amounts of right-lateral and reverse motion but did not reach the surface. In the area of maximum uplift, severe shaking and numerous ground cracks occurred along Summit Road and Skyland Ridge, several kilometers south of the main trace of the San Andreas fault. The relatively deep focus of the earthquake, the distribution of ground failure, the absence of throughgoing surface rupture on the San Andreas fault, and the large component of uplift raised several questions about the relation of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake to the San Andreas fault: Did the earthquake actually occur on the San Andreas fault? Where exactly is the San Andreas fault in the heavily forested Santa Cruz Mountains, and how does the fault relate to ground ruptures that occurred there in 1989 and 1906? What is the geometry of the San Andreas fault system at depth, and how does it relate to the major crustal blocks identified by geologic mapping? Subsequent geophysical and geologic investigations of crustal structure in the Loma Prieta region have addressed these and other questions about the relation of the earthquake to geologic structures observed in the southern Santa Cruz Mountains. The diverse papers in this chapter cover several topics: geologic mapping of the region, potential- field and electromagnetic modeling of crustal structure, and the velocity structure of the crust and mantle in and below the source region for the earthquake. Although these papers were mostly completed between 1992 and 1997, they provide critical documentation of the crustal structure of the Loma Prieta region. Together, they present a remarkably coherent, three

  10. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Improving Resilience for California from a Plausible M9 Earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Wilson, R. I.; Bahng, B.; Barberopoulou, A.; Borrero, J. C.; Brosnan, D.; Bwarie, J.; Geist, E. L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, S. H.; Knight, W.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, C. E.; Nicolsky, D.; Oglesby, D. D.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K. A.; Real, C. R.; Ryan, K. J.; Suleimani, E.; Thio, H. K.; Titov, V.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2013-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario models a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We present the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the tsunami scenario. The intended users are those who must make mitigation decisions before and rapid decisions during future tsunamis. Around a half million people would be present in the scenario's inundation area in residences, businesses, public venues, parks and beaches. Evacuation would likely be ordered for the State of California's maximum mapped tsunami inundation zone, evacuating an additional quarter million people from residences and businesses. Some island and peninsula communities would face particular evacuation challenges because of limited access options and short warning time, caused by the distance between Alaska and California. Evacuations may also be a challenge for certain dependent-care populations. One third of the boats in California's marinas could be damaged or sunk, costing at least 700 million in repairs to boats and docks, and potentially much more to address serious issues due to sediment transport and environmental contamination. Fires would likely start at many sites where fuel and petrochemicals are stored in ports and marinas. Tsunami surges and bores may travel several miles inland up coastal rivers. Debris clean-up and recovery of inundated and damaged areas will take days, months, or years depending on the severity of impacts and the available resources for recovery. The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (POLA/LB) would be shut down for a miniμm of two days due to strong currents. Inundation of dry land in the ports would result in 100 million damages to cargo and additional

  11. Characterization of the 2015 M4.0 Venus, Texas, Earthquake Sequence Using Locally Recorded Seismic Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scales, M. M.; DeShon, H. R.; Hayward, C.; Magnani, M. B.; Walter, J. I.; Pratt, T. L.

    2015-12-01

    We present high-resolution relative earthquake relocations derived using differential time data from waveform cross-correlation and first motion fault plane solutions to characterize the 2015 M4.0 Venus, TX, earthquake sequence. On 7 May 2015, a M4.0 earthquake occurred in Johnson County, TX, south of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. It is the largest event recorded to date in the Fort Worth (Barnett Shale) Basin, which is an active shale gas production area that has been associated with induced earthquakes. The USGS moment tensor indicated normal faulting along NE-SW trending faults and two additional felt aftershocks were reported in the National Earthquake Information Center catalog. Beginning on 11 May 2015, a temporary seismic network was deployed. Over the first week, SMU deployed 13 vertical-component RT125s and 3 USGS NetQuakes instruments. The RT125s were replaced with 7 short-period 3-component instruments provided by IRIS and 4 broadband stations deployed throughout Johnson County by the University of Texas. To date, we have located over 100 events that define a 5 km long normal fault striking 35°NE and dipping ~70°. Events occur in the Precambrian granitic basement at depths of 4-6km. These locations are near the bottom of the Ellenburger Group (~3.5km in depth), which is an Ordovician carbonate platform overlying the basement and is often used for wastewater disposal. Five large volume injection wells operate within 10km of the earthquake sequence and inject very near, if not through, the Ellenburger-basement contact. These wells were temporarily shut down by the Texas Railroad Commission for testing but were reported at the time to have no causal effect on the earthquake activity. We explore temporal and spatial correlations between seismicity, wastewater injection data and subsurface fault data to better understand the cause of the Venus sequence.

  12. The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Duputel, Zacharie; Jiang, Junle; Jolivet, Romain; Simons, Mark; Rivera, Luis; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Riel, Bryan; Owen, Susan E; Moore, Angelyn W; Samsonov, Sergey V; Ortega Culaciati, Francisco; Minson, Sarah E.

    2016-01-01

    The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On 1 April 2014, this region was struck by a large earthquake following a two week long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami, and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip model of the Mw=8.1 main shock and a static slip model of the Mw=7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian modeling approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding nonphysical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and updip of high-frequency sources inferred by back-projection analysis. Both the main shock and the Mw=7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large earthquake in the region.

  13. Stratigraphic sequence architecture of deep-sea clastic system from aerial photographs, Great Valley sequence, northern California

    SciTech Connect

    Paramore, R.C.; Suchecki, R.K.

    1989-04-01

    Lineations interpreted from aerial photographs reveal stratal geometries of deep-sea clastic deposits along an ancient basin margin that was strongly influenced by both subduction and related volcanogenic processes. These stratal patterns of four principal stratigraphic sequences in steeply dipping Tithonian to Valanginian sediments of the Great Valley sequence, northern California, in combination with lithic facies data, illustrate the major components and internal architecture that resulted from eustatic and tectonic variations. Although deposited along a tectonically active margin, the component geometries and internal stratal patterns of the sequences are similar in detail to seismically defined stratigraphic sequences of Vail. The integration of fine-scale stratal architecture based on aerial photograph interpretation and sediment facies using classical models of submarine-fan deposits illustrates the depositional and stratigraphic evolution of a convegent deep-sea margin.

  14. Formation of left-lateral fractures within the Summit Ridge shear zone, 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, A.M.; Fleming, R.W. |

    1993-12-01

    The 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake is characterized by the lack of major, throughgoing, coseismic, right-lateral faulting along strands of the San Andreas fault zone in the epicentral area. Instead, throughout the Summit Ridge area there are zones of tension cracks and left-lateral fracture zones oriented about N45 deg W, that is, roughly parallel to the San Andreas fault in this area. The left-lateral fractures zones are enigmatic because their left-lateral slip is opposite to the right-lateral sense of the relative motion between the Pacific and North American plates. We suggest that the enigmatic fractures can be understood if we assume that coesiesmic deformation was by right-lateral shear across a broad zone, about 0.5 km wide and 4 km long, beneath Summit Ridge. Contrary to most previous reports on the Loma Prieta earthquake, which assert that coseismic, right-lateral ground rupture was restricted to considerable (greater than 4 km) depths in the epicentral area, we find that nearly all the right-lateral offset is represented at the ground surface by the Summit Ridge shear zone.

  15. Site response, shallow shear-wave velocity, and damage in Los Gatos, California, from the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hartzell, S.; Carver, D.; Williams, R.A.

    2001-01-01

    Aftershock records of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are used to calculate site response in the frequency band of 0.5-10 Hz at 24 locations in Los Gatos, California, on the edge of the Santa Clara Valley. Two different methods are used: spectral ratios relative to a reference site on rock and a source/site spectral inversion method. These two methods complement each other and give consistent results. Site amplification factors are compared with surficial geology, thickness of alluvium, shallow shear-wave velocity measurements, and ground deformation and structural damage resulting from the Loma Prieta earthquake. Higher values of site amplification are seen on Quaternary alluvium compared with older Miocene and Cretaceous units of Monterey and Franciscan Formation. However, other more detailed correlations with surficial geology are not evident. A complex pattern of alluvial sediment thickness, caused by crosscutting thrust faults, is interpreted as contributing to the variability in site response and the presence of spectral resonance peaks between 2 and 7 Hz at some sites. Within the range of our field measurements, there is a correlation between lower average shear-wave velocity of the top 30 m and 50% higher values of site amplification. An area of residential homes thrown from their foundations correlates with high site response. This damage may also have been aggravated by local ground deformation. Severe damage to commercial buildings in the business district, however, is attributed to poor masonry construction.

  16. Intermediate-term, pre-earthquake phenomena in California, 1975-1986, and preliminary forecast of seismicity for the next decade

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.; Nicholson, C.

    1988-01-01

    Intermediate-term observations preceding earthquakes of magnitude 5.7 or greater in California from 1975 through 1986 suggest that: (1) The sudden appearance of earthquakes in a previously inactive area indicates an increased likelihood of a significant earthquake in that area for a period from days to years; (2) these larger earthquakes tend to occur towards the ends of creeping fault segments; (3) one large earthquake in a region increases the likelihood of a subsequent significant event in the adjacent area; and (4) marginal evidence for the occurrence of a regional deformation event suggests that such events increase the probability of earthquake occurrence throughout the entire area. A common element in many of these observed patterns appears to be the transmission and amplification of tectonic stress changes by the mechanism of fault creep, and suggests that surface fault creep is a sensitive indicator of changes in stress. The preceding critieria are used to construct a preliminary 'forecast' of the likely locations of significant earthquakes over the next decade. ?? 1988 Birkha??user Verlag.

  17. Broad belts of shear zones: The common form of surface rupture produced by the 28 June 1992 Landers, California, earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, A.M.; Cruikshank, K.M. |; Fleming, R.W.

    1993-12-31

    Surface rupturing during the 28 June 1992, Landers, California earthquake, east of Los Angeles, accommodated right-lateral offsets up to about 6 m along segments of distinct, en echelon fault zones with a total length of about 80 km. The offsets were accommodated generally not by faults -- distinct slip surfaces -- but rather by shear zones, tabular bands of localized shearing. In long, straight stretches of fault zones at Landers the rupture is characterized by telescoping of shear zones and intensification of shearing: broad shear zones of mild shearing, containing narrow shear zones of more intense shearing, containing even-narrower shear zones of very intense shearing, which may contain a fault. Thus the ground ruptured across broad belts of shearing with subparallel walls, oriented NW. Each broad belt consists of a broad zone of mild shearing, extending across its entire width (50 to 200 m), and much narrower (a few m wide) shear zones that accommodate most of the offset of the belt and are portrayed by en echelon tension cracks. In response to right-lateral shearing, the slices of ground bounded by the tension cracks rotated in a clockwise sense, producing left lateral shearing, and the slices were forced against the walls of the shear zone, producing thrusting. Even narrower shear zones formed within the narrow shear zones, and some of these were faults. Although the narrower shear zones probably are indicators to right-lateral fault segments at depth, the surface rupturing during the earthquake is characterized not by faulting, but by zones of shearing at various scales. Furthermore, understanding of the formation of the shear zones may be critical to understanding of earthquake faulting because, where faulting is associated with the formation of a shear zone, the faulting occurs late in the development of the shear zone. The faulting occurs after a shear zone or a belt of shear zones forms.

  18. Late Quaternary history of the Owens Valley fault zone, eastern California, and surface rupture associated with the 1872 earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Beanland, S. . Earth Deformation Section); Clark, M.M. )

    1993-04-01

    The right-lateral Owens Valley fault zone (OVFZ) in eastern California extends north about 100 km from near the northwest shore of Owens Lake to beyond Big Pine. It passes through Lone Pine near the eastern base of the Alabama Hills and follows the floor of Owens Valley northward to the Poverty Hills, where it steps 3 km to the left and continues northwest across Crater Mountain and through Big Pine. Data from one site suggest an average net slip rate for the OVFZ of 1.5 [+-] 1 mm/yr for the past 300 ky. Several other sites yield an average Holocene net slip rate of 2 [+-] 1 mm/yr. The OVFZ apparently has experienced three major Holocene earthquakes. The minimum average recurrence interval is 5,000 years at the subsidiary Lone Pine fault, whereas it is 3,300 to 5,000 years elsewhere along the OVFZ. The prehistoric earthquakes are not dated, so an average recurrence interval need not apply. However, roughly equal (characteristic) displacement apparently happened during each Holocene earthquake. The Owens Valley fault zone accommodates some of the relative motion (dextral shear) between the North American and Pacific plates along a discrete structure. This shear occurs in the Walker Lane belt of normal and strike-slip faults within the mainly extensional Basin and Range Province. In Owens Valley displacement is partitioned between the OVFZ and the nearby, subparallel, and purely normal range-front faults of the Sierra Nevada. Compared to the OVFZ, these range-front normal faults are very discontinuous and have smaller Holocene slip rates of 0.1 to 0.8 mm/yr, dip slip. Contemporary activity on adjacent faults of such contrasting styles suggests large temporal fluctuations in the relative magnitudes of the maximum and intermediate principal stresses while the extension direction remains consistently east-west.

  19. Southern California Permanent GPS Geodetic Array: Continuous measurements of regional crustal deformation between the 1992 Landers and 1994 Northridge earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bock, Y.; Wdowinski, S.; Fang, P.; Zhang, Jiahua; Williams, S.; Johnson, H.; Behr, J.; Genrich, J.; Dean, J.; Van Domselaar, M.; Agnew, D.; Wyatt, F.; Stark, K.; Oral, B.; Hudnut, K.; King, R.; Herring, T.; Dinardo, S.; Young, W.; Jackson, D.; Gurtner, W.

    1997-01-01

    The southern California Permanent GPS Geodetic Array (PGGA) was established in 1990 across the Pacific-North America plate boundary to continuously monitor crustal deformation. We describe the development of the array and the time series of daily positions estimated for its first 10 sites in the 19-month period between the June 28, 1992 (Mw=7.3), Landers and January 17, 1994 (Mw=6.7), Northridge earthquakes. We compare displacement rates at four site locations with those reported by Feigl et al. [1993], which were derived from an independent set of Global Positioning System (GPS) and very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) measurements collected over nearly a decade prior to the Landers earthquake. The velocity differences for three sites 65-100 km from the earthquake's epicenter are of order of 3-5 mm/yr and are systematically coupled with the corresponding directions of coseismic displacement. The fourth site, 300 km from the epicenter, shows no significant velocity difference. These observations suggest large-scale postseismic deformation with a relaxation time of at least 800 days. The statistical significance of our observations is complicated by our incomplete knowledge of the noise properties of the two data sets; two possible noise models fit the PGGA data equally well as described in the companion paper by Zhang et al. [this issue]; the pre-Landers data are too sparse and heterogeneous to derive a reliable noise model. Under a fractal white noise model for the PGGA data we find that the velocity differences for all three sites are statistically different at the 99% significance level. A white noise plus flicker noise model results in significance levels of only 94%, 43%, and 88%. Additional investigations of the pre-Landers data, and analysis of longer spans of PGGA data, could have an important effect on the significance of these results and will be addressed in future work. Copyright 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.

  20. The 1997 Umbria-Marche (Italy) earthquake sequence: Relationship between ground deformation and seismogenic structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cinti, F. R.; Cucci, L.; Marra, F.; Montone, P.

    A field survey performed during the 1997 Umbria-Marche earthquake sequence led us to recognize ground and pavement ruptures associated with the three largest shocks (Mw ≥ 5.7). The ruptures are concentrated in narrow bands that, in part, are on and near previously mapped high-angle normal faults. The geometry of the ground deformation is consistent with the NE-trending extension indicated by CMT focal solutions of the mainshocks. The distribution of aftershocks suggests that the three mainshocks occurred on ∼40° SW-dipping normal faults. Geological investigations, modelling of expected coseismic elevation changes, and seismic data, suggest that the surface deformation is not the direct result of primary rupture of faults at depth.

  1. Displacement Patterns of Cemetery Monuments in Ferndale, CA, During the MW 6.5 Offshore Northern California Earthquake of January 10, 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    French, K. S.; Cashman, S. M.; Structural Geology Class Spring 2010

    2010-12-01

    Displaced and toppled monuments in a cemetery are an effective means of assessing local ground motion during an earthquake. The MW 6.5 Offshore Northern California earthquake of January 10, 2010, was felt throughout northwestern California and caused moderate damage in coastal communities between Petrolia and Eureka. The earthquake was generated by left-lateral strike slip on a NE-trending fault within the subducting Gorda plate. Peak horizontal ground accelerations of -0.440g (E) and 0.279g (N) and vertical ground acceleration of -0.122g (up) were recorded in Ferndale, CA, on the North American plate 37km east southeast of the epicenter. We measured displaced and toppled monuments in the Ferndale cemetery as a means of assessing ground motion during the January 10, 2010 Offshore Northern California earthquake. The cemetery occupies a hillside that slopes gently to the northwest, and a dormant landslide underlies the cemetery. Approximately 30% of the monuments were displaced during the earthquake. Affects included toppled columns and urns; headstones, columns and large tomb covers that slid and rotated and relative to monument bases; tilted retaining walls and headstones; and liquefaction-related settling (or, less commonly, uplift) of monuments. We measured translation and rotation of 79 monuments displaced from their bases during the earthquake. Toppled monuments do not display a preferred orientation. Seven of the 18 toppled monuments fell to the southeast, but toppling occurred in all directions. For monuments that were displaced but not toppled, 1-10 cm of northwestward translation and 3-8° of clockwise rotation were most common; however, virtually all directions of translation and both clockwise and counterclockwise rotations and were recorded. Damage was not evenly distributed geographically. In general, damage was concentrated in the northern, topographically lower, part of the cemetery. Counterclockwise rotation of monuments occurred mainly along the

  2. Chapter B. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Public Response

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bolton, Patricia A.

    1993-01-01

    Major earthquakes provide seismologists and engineers an opportunity to examine the performance of the Earth and the man-made structures in response to the forces of the quake. So, too, do they provide social scientists an opportunity to delve into human responses evoked by the ground shaking and its physical consequences. The findings from such research can serve to guide the development and application of programs and practices designed to reduce death, injury, property losses, and social disruption in subsequent earthquakes. This chapter contains findings from studies focused mainly on public response to the Loma Prieta earthquake; that is, on the behavior and perceptions of the general population rather than on the activities of specific organizations or on the impact on procedures or policies. A major feature of several of these studies is that the information was collected from the population throughout the Bay area, not just from persons in the most badly damaged communities or who had suffered the greatest losses. This wide range serves to provide comparisons of behavior for those most directly affected by the earthquake with others who were less directly affected by it but still had to consider it very 'close to home.'