INTEGRATED PLANNING MODEL - EPA APPLICATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

The Integrated Planning Model (IPM) is a multi-regional, dynamic, deterministic linear programming (LP) model of the electric power sector in the continental lower 48 states and the District of Columbia. It provides forecasts up to year 2050 of least-cost capacity expansion, elec...

Implementation of marine spatial planning in shellfish aquaculture management: modeling studies in a Norwegian fjord.

PubMed

Filgueira, Ramon; Grant, Jon; Strand, Øivind

2014-06-01

Shellfish carrying capacity is determined by the interaction of a cultured species with its ecosystem, which is strongly influenced by hydrodynamics. Water circulation controls the exchange of matter between farms and the adjacent areas, which in turn establishes the nutrient supply that supports phytoplankton populations. The complexity of water circulation makes necessary the use of hydrodynamic models with detailed spatial resolution in carrying capacity estimations. This detailed spatial resolution also allows for the study of processes that depend on specific spatial arrangements, e.g., the most suitable location to place farms, which is crucial for marine spatial planning, and consequently for decision support systems. In the present study, a fully spatial physical-biogeochemical model has been combined with scenario building and optimization techniques as a proof of concept of the use of ecosystem modeling as an objective tool to inform marine spatial planning. The object of this exercise was to generate objective knowledge based on an ecosystem approach to establish new mussel aquaculture areas in a Norwegian fjord. Scenario building was used to determine the best location of a pump that can be used to bring nutrient-rich deep waters to the euphotic layer, increasing primary production, and consequently, carrying capacity for mussel cultivation. In addition, an optimization tool, parameter estimation (PEST), was applied to the optimal location and mussel standing stock biomass that maximize production, according to a preestablished carrying capacity criterion. Optimization tools allow us to make rational and transparent decisions to solve a well-defined question, decisions that are essential for policy makers. The outcomes of combining ecosystem models with scenario building and optimization facilitate planning based on an ecosystem approach, highlighting the capabilities of ecosystem modeling as a tool for marine spatial planning.

Applying linear programming model to aggregate production planning of coated peanut products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohmah, W. G.; Purwaningsih, I.; Santoso, EF S. M.

2018-03-01

The aim of this study was to set the overall production level for each grade of coated peanut product to meet market demands with a minimum production cost. The linear programming model was applied in this study. The proposed model was used to minimize the total production cost based on the limited demand of coated peanuts. The demand values applied to the method was previously forecasted using time series method and production capacity aimed to plan the aggregate production for the next 6 month period. The results indicated that the production planning using the proposed model has resulted a better fitted pattern to the customer demands compared to that of the company policy. The production capacity of product family A, B, and C was relatively stable for the first 3 months of the planning periods, then began to fluctuate over the next 3 months. While, the production capacity of product family D and E was fluctuated over the 6-month planning periods, with the values in the range of 10,864 - 32,580 kg and 255 – 5,069 kg, respectively. The total production cost for all products was 27.06% lower than the production cost calculated using the company’s policy-based method.

Revel8or: Model Driven Capacity Planning Tool Suite

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Liming; Liu, Yan; Bui, Ngoc B.

2007-05-31

Designing complex multi-tier applications that must meet strict performance requirements is a challenging software engineering problem. Ideally, the application architect could derive accurate performance predictions early in the project life-cycle, leveraging initial application design-level models and a description of the target software and hardware platforms. To this end, we have developed a capacity planning tool suite for component-based applications, called Revel8tor. The tool adheres to the model driven development paradigm and supports benchmarking and performance prediction for J2EE, .Net and Web services platforms. The suite is composed of three different tools: MDAPerf, MDABench and DSLBench. MDAPerf allows annotation of designmore » diagrams and derives performance analysis models. MDABench allows a customized benchmark application to be modeled in the UML 2.0 Testing Profile and automatically generates a deployable application, with measurement automatically conducted. DSLBench allows the same benchmark modeling and generation to be conducted using a simple performance engineering Domain Specific Language (DSL) in Microsoft Visual Studio. DSLBench integrates with Visual Studio and reuses its load testing infrastructure. Together, the tool suite can assist capacity planning across platforms in an automated fashion.« less

A Generalized National Planning Approach for Admission Capacity in Higher Education: A Nonlinear Integer Goal Programming Model with a Novel Differential Evolution Algorithm

PubMed Central

El-Qulity, Said Ali; Mohamed, Ali Wagdy

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a nonlinear integer goal programming model (NIGPM) for solving the general problem of admission capacity planning in a country as a whole. The work aims to satisfy most of the required key objectives of a country related to the enrollment problem for higher education. The system general outlines are developed along with the solution methodology for application to the time horizon in a given plan. The up-to-date data for Saudi Arabia is used as a case study and a novel evolutionary algorithm based on modified differential evolution (DE) algorithm is used to solve the complexity of the NIGPM generated for different goal priorities. The experimental results presented in this paper show their effectiveness in solving the admission capacity for higher education in terms of final solution quality and robustness. PMID:26819583

A Generalized National Planning Approach for Admission Capacity in Higher Education: A Nonlinear Integer Goal Programming Model with a Novel Differential Evolution Algorithm.

PubMed

El-Qulity, Said Ali; Mohamed, Ali Wagdy

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a nonlinear integer goal programming model (NIGPM) for solving the general problem of admission capacity planning in a country as a whole. The work aims to satisfy most of the required key objectives of a country related to the enrollment problem for higher education. The system general outlines are developed along with the solution methodology for application to the time horizon in a given plan. The up-to-date data for Saudi Arabia is used as a case study and a novel evolutionary algorithm based on modified differential evolution (DE) algorithm is used to solve the complexity of the NIGPM generated for different goal priorities. The experimental results presented in this paper show their effectiveness in solving the admission capacity for higher education in terms of final solution quality and robustness.

Capacity planning for maternal-fetal medicine using discrete event simulation.

PubMed

Ferraro, Nicole M; Reamer, Courtney B; Reynolds, Thomas A; Howell, Lori J; Moldenhauer, Julie S; Day, Theodore Eugene

2015-07-01

Maternal-fetal medicine is a rapidly growing field requiring collaboration from many subspecialties. We provide an evidence-based estimate of capacity needs for our clinic, as well as demonstrate how simulation can aid in capacity planning in similar environments. A Discrete Event Simulation of the Center for Fetal Diagnosis and Treatment and Special Delivery Unit at The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia was designed and validated. This model was then used to determine the time until demand overwhelms inpatient bed availability under increasing capacity. No significant deviation was found between historical inpatient censuses and simulated censuses for the validation phase (p = 0.889). Prospectively increasing capacity was found to delay time to balk (the inability of the center to provide bed space for a patient in need of admission). With current capacity, the model predicts mean time to balk of 276 days. Adding three beds delays mean time to first balk to 762 days; an additional six beds to 1,335 days. Providing sufficient access is a patient safety issue, and good planning is crucial for targeting infrastructure investments appropriately. Computer-simulated analysis can provide an evidence base for both medical and administrative decision making in a complex clinical environment. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

The Component Model of Infrastructure: A Practical Approach to Understanding Public Health Program Infrastructure

PubMed Central

Snyder, Kimberly; Rieker, Patricia P.

2014-01-01

Functioning program infrastructure is necessary for achieving public health outcomes. It is what supports program capacity, implementation, and sustainability. The public health program infrastructure model presented in this article is grounded in data from a broader evaluation of 18 state tobacco control programs and previous work. The newly developed Component Model of Infrastructure (CMI) addresses the limitations of a previous model and contains 5 core components (multilevel leadership, managed resources, engaged data, responsive plans and planning, networked partnerships) and 3 supporting components (strategic understanding, operations, contextual influences). The CMI is a practical, implementation-focused model applicable across public health programs, enabling linkages to capacity, sustainability, and outcome measurement. PMID:24922125

Theories, models and frameworks used in capacity building interventions relevant to public health: a systematic review.

PubMed

Bergeron, Kim; Abdi, Samiya; DeCorby, Kara; Mensah, Gloria; Rempel, Benjamin; Manson, Heather

2017-11-28

There is limited research on capacity building interventions that include theoretical foundations. The purpose of this systematic review is to identify underlying theories, models and frameworks used to support capacity building interventions relevant to public health practice. The aim is to inform and improve capacity building practices and services offered by public health organizations. Four search strategies were used: 1) electronic database searching; 2) reference lists of included papers; 3) key informant consultation; and 4) grey literature searching. Inclusion and exclusion criteria are outlined with included papers focusing on capacity building, learning plans, professional development plans in combination with tools, resources, processes, procedures, steps, model, framework, guideline, described in a public health or healthcare setting, or non-government, government, or community organizations as they relate to healthcare, and explicitly or implicitly mention a theory, model and/or framework that grounds the type of capacity building approach developed. Quality assessment were performed on all included articles. Data analysis included a process for synthesizing, analyzing and presenting descriptive summaries, categorizing theoretical foundations according to which theory, model and/or framework was used and whether or not the theory, model or framework was implied or explicitly identified. Nineteen articles were included in this review. A total of 28 theories, models and frameworks were identified. Of this number, two theories (Diffusion of Innovations and Transformational Learning), two models (Ecological and Interactive Systems Framework for Dissemination and Implementation) and one framework (Bloom's Taxonomy of Learning) were identified as the most frequently cited. This review identifies specific theories, models and frameworks to support capacity building interventions relevant to public health organizations. It provides public health practitioners with a menu of potentially usable theories, models and frameworks to support capacity building efforts. The findings also support the need for the use of theories, models or frameworks to be intentional, explicitly identified, referenced and for it to be clearly outlined how they were applied to the capacity building intervention.

Echocardiography service provision in New Zealand: The implications of capacity modelling for the cardiac sonographer workforce.

PubMed

Buckley, Belinda; Farnworth, Mark J; Whalley, Gillian

2016-01-08

Regional disparity in both utilisation and the cardiac sonographer workforce has previously been identified. We sought to model the capacity of the cardiac sonographer workforce at a national and District Health Board level to better understand these regional differences. In 2013, surveys were distributed to 18 hospitals who employ cardiac sonographers (return rate 100%). Questions related to cardiac sonographer demographics, echo utilisation and workflow. Actual clinical capacity was calculated from scan duration and annual scan volumes. New Zealand national actual capacity was compared to predicted capacity from three international models. Potential clinical capacity was calculated from the workforce size in fulltime equivalent (FTE) and clinical availability. In New Zealand, scan duration and population-based clinical capacity varies between centres. The New Zealand capacity is similar to the UK 30:70 model, and consistently less than the US model for all scan types. There are marked regional differences in potential versus actual capacity, with 10/16 DHBs demonstrating excess potential capacity. There is regional disparity in the capacity of the cardiac sonographer workforce, which appears to be strongly related to scan duration. Workforce capacity modelling should be used with need and demand modelling to plan adequate levels of service provision.

Modeling elk and bison carrying capacity for Great Sand Dunes National Park, Baca National Wildlife Refuge, and The Nature Conservancy's Medano Ranch, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wockner, Gary; Boone, Randall; Schoenecker, Kathryn A.; Zeigenfuss, Linda C.

2015-01-01

In an effort to create and form the basis of a multi-agency ungulate management plan for the region, the Park sought the development of an elk and bison ecological carrying capacity model to provide guidance to resource managers.

Capacity planning for batch and perfusion bioprocesses across multiple biopharmaceutical facilities.

PubMed

Siganporia, Cyrus C; Ghosh, Soumitra; Daszkowski, Thomas; Papageorgiou, Lazaros G; Farid, Suzanne S

2014-01-01

Production planning for biopharmaceutical portfolios becomes more complex when products switch between fed-batch and continuous perfusion culture processes. This article describes the development of a discrete-time mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model to optimize capacity plans for multiple biopharmaceutical products, with either batch or perfusion bioprocesses, across multiple facilities to meet quarterly demands. The model comprised specific features to account for products with fed-batch or perfusion culture processes such as sequence-dependent changeover times, continuous culture constraints, and decoupled upstream and downstream operations that permit independent scheduling of each. Strategic inventory levels were accounted for by applying cost penalties when they were not met. A rolling time horizon methodology was utilized in conjunction with the MILP model and was shown to obtain solutions with greater optimality in less computational time than the full-scale model. The model was applied to an industrial case study to illustrate how the framework aids decisions regarding outsourcing capacity to third party manufacturers or building new facilities. The impact of variations on key parameters such as demand or titres on the optimal production plans and costs was captured. The analysis identified the critical ratio of in-house to contract manufacturing organization (CMO) manufacturing costs that led the optimization results to favor building a future facility over using a CMO. The tool predicted that if titres were higher than expected then the optimal solution would allocate more production to in-house facilities, where manufacturing costs were lower. Utilization graphs indicated when capacity expansion should be considered. © 2014 The Authors Biotechnology Progress published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

Capacity Planning for Batch and Perfusion Bioprocesses Across Multiple Biopharmaceutical Facilities

PubMed Central

Siganporia, Cyrus C; Ghosh, Soumitra; Daszkowski, Thomas; Papageorgiou, Lazaros G; Farid, Suzanne S

2014-01-01

Production planning for biopharmaceutical portfolios becomes more complex when products switch between fed-batch and continuous perfusion culture processes. This article describes the development of a discrete-time mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model to optimize capacity plans for multiple biopharmaceutical products, with either batch or perfusion bioprocesses, across multiple facilities to meet quarterly demands. The model comprised specific features to account for products with fed-batch or perfusion culture processes such as sequence-dependent changeover times, continuous culture constraints, and decoupled upstream and downstream operations that permit independent scheduling of each. Strategic inventory levels were accounted for by applying cost penalties when they were not met. A rolling time horizon methodology was utilized in conjunction with the MILP model and was shown to obtain solutions with greater optimality in less computational time than the full-scale model. The model was applied to an industrial case study to illustrate how the framework aids decisions regarding outsourcing capacity to third party manufacturers or building new facilities. The impact of variations on key parameters such as demand or titres on the optimal production plans and costs was captured. The analysis identified the critical ratio of in-house to contract manufacturing organization (CMO) manufacturing costs that led the optimization results to favor building a future facility over using a CMO. The tool predicted that if titres were higher than expected then the optimal solution would allocate more production to in-house facilities, where manufacturing costs were lower. Utilization graphs indicated when capacity expansion should be considered. © 2013 The Authors Biotechnology Progress published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 30:594–606, 2014 PMID:24376262

Active distribution network planning considering linearized system loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiao; Wang, Mingqiang; Xu, Hao

2018-02-01

In this paper, various distribution network planning techniques with DGs are reviewed, and a new distribution network planning method is proposed. It assumes that the location of DGs and the topology of the network are fixed. The proposed model optimizes the capacities of DG and the optimal distribution line capacity simultaneously by a cost/benefit analysis and the benefit is quantified by the reduction of the expected interruption cost. Besides, the network loss is explicitly analyzed in the paper. For simplicity, the network loss is appropriately simplified as a quadratic function of difference of voltage phase angle. Then it is further piecewise linearized. In this paper, a piecewise linearization technique with different segment lengths is proposed. To validate its effectiveness and superiority, the proposed distribution network planning model with elaborate linearization technique is tested on the IEEE 33-bus distribution network system.

Short-term forecasting of emergency inpatient flow.

PubMed

Abraham, Gad; Byrnes, Graham B; Bain, Christopher A

2009-05-01

Hospital managers have to manage resources effectively, while maintaining a high quality of care. For hospitals where admissions from the emergency department to the wards represent a large proportion of admissions, the ability to forecast these admissions and the resultant ward occupancy is especially useful for resource planning purposes. Since emergency admissions often compete with planned elective admissions, modeling emergency demand may result in improved elective planning as well. We compare several models for forecasting daily emergency inpatient admissions and occupancy. The models are applied to three years of daily data. By measuring their mean square error in a cross-validation framework, we find that emergency admissions are largely random, and hence, unpredictable, whereas emergency occupancy can be forecasted using a model combining regression and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, or a seasonal ARIMA model, for up to one week ahead. Faced with variable admissions and occupancy, hospitals must prepare a reserve capacity of beds and staff. Our approach allows estimation of the required reserve capacity.

Managing the TDM process : developing MPO institutional capacity - technical report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-04-01

Within Texas, the development of urban travel demand models (TDMs) is a cooperative process between the : Texas Department of Transportation and Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs). Though TxDOT-Transportation Planning and Programming Division...

Literature Review on Decentralization: Strengthening Local Educational Capacity. Educational Policy and Planning Project. A Government of Indonesia-USAID Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chieuw, Juliet SF.; Mandolang, Nadine H.

This literature review, while not comprehensive, is aimed at informing the Strengthening Local Education Capacity project under way in Indonesia. Strategies that strengthen educational capacities at the school and local levels were reviewed, followed by strategies for local governance. Two school governance models, public choice and public…

Electricity generation and transmission planning in deregulated power markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yang

This dissertation addresses the long-term planning of power generation and transmission facilities in a deregulated power market. Three models with increasing complexities are developed, primarily for investment decisions in generation and transmission capacity. The models are presented in a two-stage decision context where generation and transmission capacity expansion decisions are made in the first stage, while power generation and transmission service fees are decided in the second stage. Uncertainties that exist in the second stage affect the capacity expansion decisions in the first stage. The first model assumes that the electric power market is not constrained by transmission capacity limit. The second model, which includes transmission constraints, considers the interactions between generation firms and the transmission network operator. The third model assumes that the generation and transmission sectors make capacity investment decisions separately. These models result in Nash-Cournot equilibrium among the unregulated generation firms, while the regulated transmission network operator supports the competition among generation firms. Several issues in the deregulated electric power market can be studied with these models such as market powers of generation firms and transmission network operator, uncertainties of the future market, and interactions between the generation and transmission sectors. Results deduced from the developed models include (a) regulated transmission network operator will not reserve transmission capacity to gain extra profits; instead, it will make capacity expansion decisions to support the competition in the generation sector; (b) generation firms will provide more power supplies when there is more demand; (c) in the presence of future uncertainties, the generation firms will add more generation capacity if the demand in the future power market is expected to be higher; and (d) the transmission capacity invested by the transmission network operator depends on the characteristic of the power market and the topology of the transmission network. Also, the second model, which considers interactions between generation and transmission sectors, yields higher social welfare in the electric power market, than the third model where generation firms and transmission network operator make investment decisions separately.

Estimates of emergency operating capacity in U.S. manufacturing industries: 1994--2005

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Belzer, D.B.

1997-02-01

To develop integrated policies for mobilization preparedness, planners require estimates and projections of available productive capacity during national emergency conditions. This report develops projections of national emergency operating capacity (EOC) for 458 US manufacturing industries at the 4-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level. These measures are intended for use in planning models that are designed to predict the demands for detailed industry sectors that would occur under conditions such as a military mobilization or a major national disaster. This report is part of an ongoing series of studies prepared by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to support mobilization planning studiesmore » of the Federal Emergency Planning Agency/US Department of Defense (FEMA/DOD). Earlier sets of EOC estimates were developed in 1985 and 1991. This study presents estimates of EOC through 2005. As in the 1991 study, projections of capacity were based upon extrapolations of equipment capital stocks. The methodology uses time series regression models based on industry data to obtain a response function of industry capital stock to levels of industrial output. The distributed lag coefficients of these response function are then used with projected outputs to extrapolate the 1994 level of EOC. Projections of industrial outputs were taken from the intermediate-term forecast of the US economy prepared by INFORUM (Interindustry Forecasting Model, University of Maryland) in the spring of 1996.« less

Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley J.; Frew, Bethany A.; Mai, Trieu T.

Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. To assess current best practices, share methods and data, and identify future research needs for VRE representation in capacity expansion models, four capacity expansion modeling teams from the Electric Powermore » Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted two workshops of VRE modeling for national-scale capacity expansion models. The workshops covered a wide range of VRE topics, including transmission and VRE resource data, VRE capacity value, dispatch and operational modeling, distributed generation, and temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of the workshops were both to better understand these topics and to improve the representation of VRE across the suite of models. Given these goals, each team incorporated model updates and performed additional analyses between the first and second workshops. This report summarizes the analyses and model 'experiments' that were conducted as part of these workshops as well as the various methods for treating VRE among the four modeling teams. The report also reviews the findings and learnings from the two workshops. We emphasize the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making.« less

Strengthening the capacity for health promotion in South Africa through international collaboration.

PubMed

Van den Broucke, Stephan; Jooste, Heila; Tlali, Maki; Moodley, Vimla; Van Zyl, Greer; Nyamwaya, David; Tang, Kwok-Cho

2010-06-01

This paper describes a project to strengthen the capacity for health promotion in two Provinces in South Africa. The project draws on the key health promotion capacity dimensions of partnership and networking, infrastructure, problem-solving capacity, and knowledge transfer. The project was carried out in a partnership between the Provinces, the Ministry of Health of South Africa, the government of Flanders, Belgium, and the World Health Organization (WHO). The project aimed to: (i) integrate health promotion into national, Provincial and district level health policy plans (ii) strengthen the health promotion capacity in the two Provinces; and (iii) support the development of tools to monitor and evaluate health promotion interventions. Starting from a situation analysis and identification of priority health issues and existing actions in each Province, capacity-building workshops were organized for senior participants from various sectors. Community-based health promotion interventions were then planned and implemented in both Provinces. A systematic evaluation of the project involving an internal audit of project activities and results based on document analysis, site visits, focus groups and interviews with key persons demonstrated that stakeholders in both Provinces saw an increase of capacity in terms of networking, knowledge transfer, problem solving, and to a lesser extent infrastructure. Health promotion had been well integrated in the Provincial health plans, and roll-out processes with local stakeholders had started after the conclusion of the project. The development of tools for monitoring and evaluation of health promotion was less well achieved. The project illustrates how capacities to deliver health promotion interventions in a developing country can be enhanced through international collaboration. The conceptual model of capacity building that served as a basis for the project provided a useful framework to plan, identify and assess the key components of health promotion capacity in an African context.

The Effect of Pre-Task Planning Time on L2 Learners' Narrative Writing Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seyyedi, Keivan; Ismail, Shaik Abdul Malik Mohamed; Orang, Maryam; Nejad, Maryam Sharafi

2013-01-01

Building on Baddeley's cognitive psychology (2007) and Skehan's Limited Attentional Capacity Model (2009), this article reports a study of the effects of pre-task planning time (strategic planning time) on Malaysian English learners' written narratives elicited by means of a picture composition. 50 first-year undergraduate students studying at…

Generating capacity in US electric utilities: How is it used? How much is needed over the decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keelin, T. W.; Oatman, E. N.; Gent, M. R.

1982-10-01

This report addresses: how US generating capacity is used to supply today's consumers with electricity; whether new capacity planned over the next decade is enough to provide a secure supply of electricity; how delays and cancellations of planned capacity would result in higher electricity costs and threaten the security of electricity supply; and how today's decisions determine electricity supply for the next decade and beyond. It is concluded that there is not an electricity supply crisis currently, but there is a planning crisis. This conclusion is based on the following: existing capacity supplies current needs, but provides little room for economic growth; new capacity is planned to provide a secure supply of electricity for the demand projected by utilities; if demand is lower, planned capacity will reduce costs and, if demand is higher, planned capacity will not be adequate; planned capacity may not be realized.

Strategic Air Traffic Planning Using Eulerian Route Based Modeling and Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bombelli, Alessandro

Due to a soaring air travel growth in the last decades, air traffic management has become increasingly challenging. As a consequence, planning tools are being devised to help human decision-makers achieve a better management of air traffic. Planning tools are divided into two categories, strategic and tactical. Strategic planning generally addresses a larger planning domain and is performed days to hours in advance. Tactical planning is more localized and is performed hours to minutes in advance. An aggregate route model for strategic air traffic flow management is presented. It is an Eulerian model, describing the flow between cells of unidirectional point-to-point routes. Aggregate routes are created from flight trajectory data based on similarity measures. Spatial similarity is determined using the Frechet distance. The aggregate routes approximate actual well-traveled traffic patterns. By specifying the model resolution, an appropriate balance between model accuracy and model dimension can be achieved. For a particular planning horizon, during which weather is expected to restrict the flow, a procedure for designing airborne reroutes and augmenting the traffic flow model is developed. The dynamics of the traffic flow on the resulting network take the form of a discrete-time, linear time-invariant system. The traffic flow controls are ground holding, pre-departure rerouting and airborne rerouting. Strategic planning--determining how the controls should be used to modify the future traffic flow when local capacity violations are anticipated--is posed as an integer programming problem of minimizing a weighted sum of flight delays subject to control and capacity constraints. Several tests indicate the effectiveness of the modeling and strategic planning approach. In the final, most challenging, test, strategic planning is demonstrated for the six western-most Centers of the 22-Center national airspace. The planning time horizon is four hours long, and there is weather predicted that causes significant delays to the scheduled flights. Airborne reroute options are computed and added to the route model, and it is shown that the predicted delays can be significantly reduced. The test results also indicate the computational feasibility of the approach for a planning problem of this size.

Contribution of Geographic Information Systems and location models to planning of wastewater systems.

PubMed

Leitão, J P; Matos, J S; Gonçalves, A B; Matos, J L

2005-01-01

This paper presents the contributions of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and location models towards planning regional wastewater systems (sewers and wastewater treatment plants) serving small agglomerations, i.e. agglomerations with less than 2,000 inhabitants. The main goal was to develop a decision support tool for tracing and locating regional wastewater systems. The main results of the model are expressed in terms of number, capacity and location of Wastewater Treatment Plants (WWTP) and the length of main sewers. The decision process concerning the location and capacity of wastewater systems has a number of parameters that can be optimized. These parameters include the total sewer length and number, capacity and location of WWTP. The optimization of parameters should lead to the minimization of construction and operation costs of the integrated system. Location models have been considered as tools for decision support, mainly when a geo-referenced database can be used. In these cases, the GIS may represent an important role for the analysis of data and results especially in the preliminary stage of planning and design. After selecting the spatial location model and the heuristics, two greedy algorithms were implemented in Visual Basic for Applications on the ArcGIS software environment. To illustrate the application of these algorithms a case study was developed, in a rural area located in the central part of Portugal.

Utilizing a Pediatric Disaster Coalition Model to Increase Pediatric Critical Care Surge Capacity in New York City.

PubMed

Frogel, Michael; Flamm, Avram; Sagy, Mayer; Uraneck, Katharine; Conway, Edward; Ushay, Michael; Greenwald, Bruce M; Pierre, Louisdon; Shah, Vikas; Gaffoor, Mohamed; Cooper, Arthur; Foltin, George

2017-08-01

A mass casualty event can result in an overwhelming number of critically injured pediatric victims that exceeds the available capacity of pediatric critical care (PCC) units, both locally and regionally. To address these gaps, the New York City (NYC) Pediatric Disaster Coalition (PDC) was established. The PDC includes experts in emergency preparedness, critical care, surgery, and emergency medicine from 18 of 25 major NYC PCC-capable hospitals. A PCC surge committee created recommendations for making additional PCC beds available with an emphasis on space, staff, stuff (equipment), and systems. The PDC assisted 15 hospitals in creating PCC surge plans by utilizing template plans and site visits. These plans created an additional 153 potential PCC surge beds. Seven hospitals tested their plans through drills. The purpose of this article was to demonstrate the need for planning for disasters involving children and to provide a stepwise, replicable model for establishing a PDC, with one of its primary goals focused on facilitating PCC surge planning. The process we describe for developing a PDC can be replicated to communities of any size, setting, or location. We offer our model as an example for other cities. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:473-478).

Measurement and assessment of carrying capacity of the environment in Ningbo, China.

PubMed

Liu, R Z; Borthwick, Alistair G L

2011-08-01

Carrying Capacity of the Environment (CCE) provides a useful measure of the sustainable development of a region. Approaches that use integrated assessment instead of measurement can lead to misinterpretation of sustainable development because of confusion between Environmental Stress (ES) indexes and CCE indexes, and the selection of over-simple linear plus models. The present paper proposes a comprehensive measurement system for CCE which comprises models of natural resources capacity, environmental assimilative capacity, ecosystem services capacity, and society supporting capacity. The corresponding measurable indexes are designed to assess CCE using a carrying capacity surplus ratio model and a vector of surplus ratio of carrying capacity model. The former aims at direct comparison of ES and CCE based on the values of basic indexes, and the latter uses a Euclidean vector to assess CCE states. The measurement and assessment approaches are applicable to Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and environmental planning and management. A case study is presented for Ningbo, China, whereby all the basic indexes of ECC are measured and the CCE states assessed for 2005 and 2010. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using discrete-event simulation in strategic capacity planning for an outpatient physical therapy service.

PubMed

Rau, Chi-Lun; Tsai, Pei-Fang Jennifer; Liang, Sheau-Farn Max; Tan, Jhih-Cian; Syu, Hong-Cheng; Jheng, Yue-Ling; Ciou, Ting-Syuan; Jaw, Fu-Shan

2013-12-01

This study uses a simulation model as a tool for strategic capacity planning for an outpatient physical therapy clinic in Taipei, Taiwan. The clinic provides a wide range of physical treatments, with 6 full-time therapists in each session. We constructed a discrete-event simulation model to study the dynamics of patient mixes with realistic treatment plans, and to estimate the practical capacity of the physical therapy room. The changes in time-related and space-related performance measurements were used to evaluate the impact of various strategies on the capacity of the clinic. The simulation results confirmed that the clinic is extremely patient-oriented, with a bottleneck occurring at the traction units for Intermittent Pelvic Traction (IPT), with usage at 58.9 %. Sensitivity analysis showed that attending to more patients would significantly increase the number of patients staying for overtime sessions. We found that pooling the therapists produced beneficial results. The average waiting time per patient could be reduced by 45 % when we pooled 2 therapists. We found that treating up to 12 new patients per session had no significantly negative impact on returning patients. Moreover, we found that the average waiting time for new patients decreased if they were given priority over returning patients when called by the therapists.

Combinatorial optimization in foundry practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antamoshkin, A. N.; Masich, I. S.

2016-04-01

The multicriteria mathematical model of foundry production capacity planning is suggested in the paper. The model is produced in terms of pseudo-Boolean optimization theory. Different search optimization methods were used to solve the obtained problem.

Modified allocation capacitated planning model in blood supply chain management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansur, A.; Vanany, I.; Arvitrida, N. I.

2018-04-01

Blood supply chain management (BSCM) is a complex process management that involves many cooperating stakeholders. BSCM involves four echelon processes, which are blood collection or procurement, production, inventory, and distribution. This research develops an optimization model of blood distribution planning. The efficiency of decentralization and centralization policies in a blood distribution chain are compared, by optimizing the amount of blood delivered from a blood center to a blood bank. This model is developed based on allocation problem of capacitated planning model. At the first stage, the capacity and the cost of transportation are considered to create an initial capacitated planning model. Then, the inventory holding and shortage costs are added to the model. These additional parameters of inventory costs lead the model to be more realistic and accurate.

Developing a Framework for Effective Network Capacity Planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yaprak, Ece

2005-01-01

As Internet traffic continues to grow exponentially, developing a clearer understanding of, and appropriately measuring, network's performance is becoming ever more critical. An important challenge faced by the Information Resources Directorate (IRD) at the Johnson Space Center in this context remains not only monitoring and maintaining a secure network, but also better understanding the capacity and future growth potential boundaries of its network. This requires capacity planning which involves modeling and simulating different network alternatives, and incorporating changes in design as technologies, components, configurations, and applications change, to determine optimal solutions in light of IRD's goals, objectives and strategies. My primary task this summer was to address this need. I evaluated network-modeling tools from OPNET Technologies Inc. and Compuware Corporation. I generated a baseline model for Building 45 using both tools by importing "real" topology/traffic information using IRD's various network management tools. I compared each tool against the other in terms of the advantages and disadvantages of both tools to accomplish IRD's goals. I also prepared step-by-step "how to design a baseline model" tutorial for both OPNET and Compuware products.

Opportunities and Benefits for Increasing Transmission Capacity between the US Eastern and Western Interconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueroa-Acevedo, Armando L.

Historically, the primary justification for building wide-area transmission lines in the US and around the world has been based on reliability and economic criteria. Today, the influence of renewable portfolio standards (RPS), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations, transmission needs, load diversity, and grid flexibility requirements drives interest in high capacity wide-area transmission. By making use of an optimization model to perform long-term (15 years) co-optimized generation and transmission expansion planning, this work explored the benefits of increasing transmission capacity between the US Eastern and Western Interconnections under different policy and futures assumptions. The model assessed tradeoffs between investments in cross-interconnection HVDC transmission, AC transmission needs within each interconnection, generation investment costs, and operational costs, while satisfying different policy compliance constraints. Operational costs were broken down into the following market products: energy, up-/down regulation reserve, and contingency reserve. In addition, the system operating flexibility requirements were modeled as a function of net-load variability so that the flexibility of the non-wind/non-solar resources increases with increased wind and solar investment. In addition, planning reserve constraints are imposed under the condition that they be deliverable to the load. Thus, the model allows existing and candidate generation resources for both operating reserves and deliverable planning reserves to be shared throughout the interconnections, a feature which significantly drives identification of least-cost investments. This model is used with a 169-bus representation of the North American power grid to design four different high-capacity wide-area transmission infrastructures. Results from this analysis suggest that, under policy that imposes a high-renewable future, the benefits of high capacity transmission between the Eastern and Western Interconnections outweigh its cost. A sensitivity analysis is included to test the robustness of each design under different future assumptions and approximate upper and lower bounds for cross-seam transmission between the Eastern and Western Interconnections.

Airport capacity enhancement plan

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1986-01-01

The first edition of the Airport Capacity Enhancement Plan has been developed : by the Federal Aviation Administration's newly established Airport Capacity Program : Office (ACPO). The plan is intended to increase the capacity and efficient utiliza :...

Airport Capacity Enhancement Plan.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1986-01-01

The first edition of the Airport Capacity Enhancement Plan has been developed by the Federal Aviation Administration's newly established Airport Capacity Program Office (ACPO). The plan is intended to increase the capacity and efficient utilization o...

Airport Capacity Enhancement Plan

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1987-01-01

The first edition of the Airport Capacity Enhancement Plan has been developed by the Federal Aviation Administration's newly established Airport Capacity Program Office (ACPO). The plan is intended to increase the capacity and efficient utilization o...

24 CFR 1003.205 - Eligible planning, urban environmental design and policy-planning-management-capacity building...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Eligible planning, urban environmental design and policy-planning-management-capacity building activities. 1003.205 Section 1003.205... planning, urban environmental design and policy-planning-management-capacity building activities. (a...

24 CFR 1003.205 - Eligible planning, urban environmental design and policy-planning-management-capacity building...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Eligible planning, urban environmental design and policy-planning-management-capacity building activities. 1003.205 Section 1003.205... planning, urban environmental design and policy-planning-management-capacity building activities. (a...

A benders decomposition approach to multiarea stochastic distributed utility planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, Susan Ann

Until recently, small, modular generation and storage options---distributed resources (DRs)---have been installed principally in areas too remote for economic power grid connection and sensitive applications requiring backup capacity. Recent regulatory changes and DR advances, however, have lead utilities to reconsider the role of DRs. To a utility facing distribution capacity bottlenecks or uncertain load growth, DRs can be particularly valuable since they can be dispersed throughout the system and constructed relatively quickly. DR value is determined by comparing its costs to avoided central generation expenses (i.e., marginal costs) and distribution investments. This requires a comprehensive central and local planning and production model, since central system marginal costs result from system interactions over space and time. This dissertation develops and applies an iterative generalized Benders decomposition approach to coordinate models for optimal DR evaluation. Three coordinated models exchange investment, net power demand, and avoided cost information to minimize overall expansion costs. Local investment and production decisions are made by a local mixed integer linear program. Central system investment decisions are made by a LP, and production costs are estimated by a stochastic multi-area production costing model with Kirchhoff's Voltage and Current Law constraints. The nested decomposition is a new and unique method for distributed utility planning that partitions the variables twice to separate local and central investment and production variables, and provides upper and lower bounds on expected expansion costs. Kirchhoff's Voltage Law imposes nonlinear, nonconvex constraints that preclude use of LP if transmission capacity is available in a looped transmission system. This dissertation develops KVL constraint approximations that permit the nested decomposition to consider new transmission resources, while maintaining linearity in the three individual models. These constraints are presented as a heuristic for the given examples; future research will investigate conditions for convergence. A ten-year multi-area example demonstrates the decomposition approach and suggests the ability of DRs and new transmission to modify capacity additions and production costs by changing demand and power flows. Results demonstrate that DR and new transmission options may lead to greater capacity additions, but resulting production cost savings more than offset extra capacity costs.

Capacity Building through Operational Research Training in Tobacco Control: Experiences and Lesson Learned.

PubMed

Goel, Sonu; V Kumar, Ajay M; Aggarwal, Arun Kumar; Singh, Rana J; Lal, Pranay; Kumar, Ravinder; Gupta, Madhu; Dogra, Vishal; Gupta, Deepti

2018-01-01

Several competing priorities with health and development sector currently deter research, and as a result of which evidence does not drive policy- or decision-making. There is limited operational research (OR) within the India's National Tobacco Control Programme, as it is in other middle- and low-income countries, primarily due to limited capacity and skills in undertaking OR and lack of dedicated funding. Few models of OR have been developed to meet the needs of different settings; however, they were found to be costly and time-consuming. To elucidate a cost-effective and less resource arduous training model for building capacity in OR focused on tobacco control. This 5½-day partly funded course enrolled 15 participants across the country and nine facilitators. The facilitator-participants interactions were initiated 2 weeks before the course, which enabled them to develop possible research questions and a plan for data analysis. This article presents the new OR model along with experiences of the participants which will provide useful insights on lessons learned for planning similar courses in the future. While we faced several challenges in the process and the outputs were modest, several lessons were learned which will be instrumental in the future courses that we are planning to conduct. This low cost and less time intensive model can be applied in similar settings across range of public health issues.

Participatory System Dynamics Modeling: Increasing Stakeholder Engagement and Precision to Improve Implementation Planning in Systems.

PubMed

Zimmerman, Lindsey; Lounsbury, David W; Rosen, Craig S; Kimerling, Rachel; Trafton, Jodie A; Lindley, Steven E

2016-11-01

Implementation planning typically incorporates stakeholder input. Quality improvement efforts provide data-based feedback regarding progress. Participatory system dynamics modeling (PSD) triangulates stakeholder expertise, data and simulation of implementation plans prior to attempting change. Frontline staff in one VA outpatient mental health system used PSD to examine policy and procedural "mechanisms" they believe underlie local capacity to implement evidence-based psychotherapies (EBPs) for PTSD and depression. We piloted the PSD process, simulating implementation plans to improve EBP reach. Findings indicate PSD is a feasible, useful strategy for building stakeholder consensus, and may save time and effort as compared to trial-and-error EBP implementation planning.

Capacity-constrained traffic assignment in networks with residual queues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lam, W.H.K.; Zhang, Y.

2000-04-01

This paper proposes a capacity-constrained traffic assignment model for strategic transport planning in which the steady-state user equilibrium principle is extended for road networks with residual queues. Therefore, the road-exit capacity and the queuing effects can be incorporated into the strategic transport model for traffic forecasting. The proposed model is applicable to the congested network particularly when the traffic demands exceeds the capacity of the network during the peak period. An efficient solution method is proposed for solving the steady-state traffic assignment problem with residual queues. Then a simple numerical example is employed to demonstrate the application of the proposedmore » model and solution method, while an example of a medium-sized arterial highway network in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, is used to test the applicability of the proposed solution to real problems.« less

24 CFR 570.205 - Eligible planning, urban environmental design and policy-planning-management-capacity building...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... environmental design and policy-planning-management-capacity building activities. 570.205 Section 570.205..., urban environmental design and policy-planning-management-capacity building activities. (a) Planning...; (iv) Open space and recreation; (v) Energy use and conservation; (vi) Floodplain and wetlands...

Municipal solid waste management planning for Xiamen City, China: a stochastic fractional inventory-theory-based approach.

PubMed

Chen, Xiujuan; Huang, Guohe; Zhao, Shan; Cheng, Guanhui; Wu, Yinghui; Zhu, Hua

2017-11-01

In this study, a stochastic fractional inventory-theory-based waste management planning (SFIWP) model was developed and applied for supporting long-term planning of the municipal solid waste (MSW) management in Xiamen City, the special economic zone of Fujian Province, China. In the SFIWP model, the techniques of inventory model, stochastic linear fractional programming, and mixed-integer linear programming were integrated in a framework. Issues of waste inventory in MSW management system were solved, and the system efficiency was maximized through considering maximum net-diverted wastes under various constraint-violation risks. Decision alternatives for waste allocation and capacity expansion were also provided for MSW management planning in Xiamen. The obtained results showed that about 4.24 × 10 6  t of waste would be diverted from landfills when p i is 0.01, which accounted for 93% of waste in Xiamen City, and the waste diversion per unit of cost would be 26.327 × 10 3  t per $10 6 . The capacities of MSW management facilities including incinerators, composting facility, and landfills would be expanded due to increasing waste generation rate.

Building policy capacities: an interactive approach for linking knowledge to action in health promotion.

PubMed

Rütten, Alfred; Gelius, Peter

2014-09-01

This article outlines a theoretical framework for an interactive, research-driven approach to building policy capacities in health promotion. First, it illustrates how two important issues in the recent public health debate, capacity building and linking scientific knowledge to policy action, are connected to each other theoretically. It then introduces an international study on an interactive approach to capacity building in health promotion policy. The approach combines the ADEPT model of policy capacities with a co-operative planning process to foster the exchange of knowledge between policy-makers and researchers, thus improving intra- and inter-organizational capacities. A regional-level physical activity promotion project involving governmental and public-law institutions, NGOs and university researchers serves as a case study to illustrate the potential of the approach for capacity building. Analysis and comparison with a similar local-level project indicate that the approach provides an effective means of linking scientific knowledge to policy action and to planning concrete measures for capacity building in health promotion, but that it requires sufficiently long timelines and adequate resources to achieve adequate implementation and sustainability. © The Author (2013). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Peak capacity analysis of coal power in China based on full-life cycle cost model optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xiaoqing; Zhang, Jinfang; Huang, Xinting

2018-02-01

13th five-year and the next period are critical for the energy and power reform of China. In order to ease the excessive power supply, policies have been introduced by National Energy Board especially toward coal power capacity control. Therefore the rational construction scale and scientific development timing for coal power are of great importance and paid more and more attentions. In this study, the comprehensive influence of coal power reduction policies is analyzed from diverse point of views. Full-life cycle cost model of coal power is established to fully reflect the external and internal cost. Then this model is introduced in an improved power planning optimization theory. The power planning and diverse scenarios production simulation shows that, in order to meet the power, electricity and peak balance of power system, China’s coal power peak capacity is within 1.15 ∼ 1.2 billion kilowatts before or after 2025. The research result is expected to be helpful to the power industry in 14th and 15th five-year periods, promoting the efficiency and safety of power system.

Hospital capacity planning: from measuring stocks to modelling flows

PubMed Central

Wright, Stephen; Barlow, James; McKee, Martin

2010-01-01

Abstract The metric of “bed numbers” is commonly used in hospital planning, but it fails to capture key aspects of how hospital services are delivered. Drawing on a study of innovative hospital projects in Europe, we argue that hospital capacity planning should not be based on beds, but rather on the ability to deliver processes. We propose using approaches that are based on manufacturing theory such as “lean thinking” that focuses on the value that different processes add for the primary customer, i.e. the patient. We argue that it is beneficial to look at the hospital, not from the perspective of beds or specialties, but rather from the path taken by the patients who are treated in them, the respective processes delivered by health professionals and the facilities appropriate to those processes. Systematized care pathways seem to offer one avenue for achieving these goals. However, they need to be underpinned by a better understanding of the flows of patients, work and goods within a hospital, the bottlenecks that occur, and translation of this understanding into new capacity planning tools. PMID:20680129

Integrated plan to augment surge capacity.

PubMed

Dayton, Christopher; Ibrahim, Jamil; Augenbraun, Michael; Brooks, Steven; Mody, Kiaran; Holford, Donald; Roblin, Patricia; Arquilla, Bonnie

2008-01-01

Surge capacity is defined as a healthcare system's ability to rapidly expand beyond normal services to meet the increased demand for appropriate space, qualified personnel, medical care, and public health in the event ofbioterrorism, disaster, or other large-scale, public health emergencies. There are many individuals and agencies, including policy makers, planners, administrators, and staff at the federal, state, and local level, involved in the process of planning for and executing policy in respect to a surge in the medical requirements of a population. They are responsible to ensure there is sufficient surge capacity within their own jurisdiction. The [US] federal government has required New York State to create a system of hospital bed surge capacity that provides for 500 adult and pediatric patients per 1 million population, which has been estimated to be an increase of 15-20% in bed availability. In response, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (NYC DOH) has requested that area hospitals take an inventory of available beds and set a goal to provide for a 20% surge capacity to be available during a mass-casualty event or other conditions calling for increased inpatient bed availability. In 2003, under the auspices of the NYC DOH, the New York Institute of All Hazard Preparedness (NYIHP) was formed from four unaffiliated, healthcare facilities in Central Brooklyn to address this and other goals. The NYIHP hospitals have developed a surge capacity plan to provide necessary space and utilities. As these plans have been applied, a bed surge capacity of approximately 25% was identified and created for Central Brooklyn to provide for the increased demand on the medical care system that may accompany a disaster. Through the process of developing an integrated plan that would engage a public health incident, the facilities of NYIHP demonstrate that a model of cooperation may be applied to an inherently fractioned medical system.

Capacity planning of a wide-sense nonblocking generalized survivable network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Kwok Shing; Cheung, Kwok Wai

2006-06-01

Generalized survivable networks (GSNs) have two interesting properties that are essential attributes for future backbone networks--full survivability against link failures and support for dynamic traffic demands. GSNs incorporate the nonblocking network concept into the survivable network models. Given a set of nodes and a topology that is at least two-edge connected, a certain minimum capacity is required for each edge to form a GSN. The edge capacity is bounded because each node has an input-output capacity limit that serves as a constraint for any allowable traffic demand matrix. The GSN capacity planning problem is nondeterministic polynomial time (NP) hard. We first give a rigorous mathematical framework; then we offer two different solution approaches. The two-phase approach is fast, but the joint optimization approach yields a better bound. We carried out numerical computations for eight networks with different topologies and found that the cost of a GSN is only a fraction (from 52% to 89%) more than that of a static survivable network.

Demand and capacity planning in the emergency department: how to do it.

PubMed

Higginson, I; Whyatt, J; Silvester, K

2011-02-01

Unless emergency departments have adequate capacity to meet demand, they will fail to meet clinical and performance standards and will be operating in the 'coping zone'. This carries risks both for staff and patients. As part of a quality improvement programme, the authors undertook an in-depth analysis of demand and capacity for an emergency department in the UK. The paper describes this rigorous approach to capacity planning, which draws on techniques from other industries. Proper capacity planning is vital, but is often poorly done. Planning using aggregated data will lead to inadequate capacity. Understanding demand, and particularly the variation in that demand, is critical to success. Analysis of emergency department demand and capacity is the first step towards effective workforce planning and process redesign.

The Bremerton enrollment capacity model: an enrollment capacity model supporting the military health system optimization plan.

PubMed

Helmers, S

2001-12-01

The Department of Defense has launched several initiatives to improve efficiency and quality of care in the military health system. The goal of empaneling 1,300 to 1,500 patients per primary care manager did not correlate well with Naval Hospital Bremerton's experience and did not accurately account for military-specific requirements. The Bremerton Model Task Force was chartered to assess current business practices, identify areas for improvement, and develop a capacity model reflecting military readiness and residency training requirements. Methods included a 12-month review of patient visits and staff surveys of how providers spent their day, with time-and-motion analysis to verify assumptions. Our capacity results (average, 791 enrollees per primary care manager) demonstrated that objective measures at the local level do not support enrollment to Department of Defense-specified levels. Significant changes in "corporate culture" are necessary to accomplish the military health system goals.

Guided preparedness planning with lay communities: enhancing capacity of rural emergency response through a systems-based partnership.

PubMed

McCabe, O Lee; Perry, Charlene; Azur, Melissa; Taylor, Henry G; Gwon, Howard; Mosley, Adrian; Semon, Natalie; Links, Jonathan M

2013-02-01

Community disaster preparedness plans, particularly those with content that would mitigate the effects of psychological trauma on vulnerable rural populations, are often nonexistent or underdeveloped. The purpose of the study was to develop and evaluate a model of disaster mental health preparedness planning involving a partnership among three, key stakeholders in the public health system. A one-group, post-test, quasi-experimental design was used to assess outcomes as a function of an intervention designated Guided Preparedness Planning (GPP). The setting was the eastern-, northern-, and mid-shore region of the state of Maryland. Partner participants were four local health departments (LHDs), 100 faith-based organizations (FBOs), and one academic health center (AHC)-the latter, collaborating entities of the Johns Hopkins University and the Johns Hopkins Health System. Individual participants were 178 community residents recruited from counties of the above-referenced geographic area. Effectiveness of GPP was based on post-intervention assessments of trainee knowledge, skills, and attitudes supportive of community disaster mental health planning. Inferences about the practicability (feasibility) of the model were drawn from pre-defined criteria for partner readiness, willingness, and ability to participate in the project. Additional aims of the study were to determine if LHD leaders would be willing and able to generate post-project strategies to perpetuate project-initiated government/faith planning alliances (sustainability), and to develop portable methods and materials to enhance model application and impact in other health jurisdictions (scalability). The majority (95%) of the 178 lay citizens receiving the GPP intervention and submitting complete evaluations reported that planning-supportive objectives had been achieved. Moreover, all criteria for inferring model feasibility, sustainability, and scalability were met. Within the span of a six-month period, LHDs, FBOs, and AHCs can work effectively to plan, implement, and evaluate what appears to be an effective, practical, and durable model of capacity building for public mental health emergency planning.

APPLICATION OF TRAVEL TIME RELIABILITY FOR PERFORMANCE ORIENTED OPERATIONAL PLANNING OF EXPRESSWAYS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehran, Babak; Nakamura, Hideki

Evaluation of impacts of congestion improvement scheme s on travel time reliability is very significant for road authorities since travel time reliability repr esents operational performance of expressway segments. In this paper, a methodology is presented to estimate travel tim e reliability prior to implementation of congestion relief schemes based on travel time variation modeling as a function of demand, capacity, weather conditions and road accident s. For subject expressway segmen ts, traffic conditions are modeled over a whole year considering demand and capacity as random variables. Patterns of demand and capacity are generated for each five minute interval by appl ying Monte-Carlo simulation technique, and accidents are randomly generated based on a model that links acci dent rate to traffic conditions. A whole year analysis is performed by comparing de mand and available capacity for each scenario and queue length is estimated through shockwave analysis for each time in terval. Travel times are estimated from refined speed-flow relationships developed for intercity expressways and buffer time index is estimated consequently as a measure of travel time reliability. For validation, estimated reliability indices are compared with measured values from empirical data, and it is shown that the proposed method is suitable for operational evaluation and planning purposes.

Institutional adaptation to drought: the case of Fars Agricultural Organization.

PubMed

Keshavarz, Marzieh; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-09-30

Recurrent droughts in arid and semi-arid regions are already rendering agricultural production, mainstay of subsistence livelihoods, uncertain. In order to mitigate the impact of drought, agricultural organizations must increase their capacity to adapt. Institutional adaptation refers to the creation of an effective, long-term government institution or set of institutions in charge of planning and policy, and its capacity to develop, revise, and execute drought policies. Using the Fars Agricultural Organization in Iran, as a case study, this paper explores the institutional capacities and capabilities, necessary to adapt to the drought conditions. The STAIR model was used as a conceptual tool, and the Bayesian network and Partial Least Squares (PLS) path modeling was applied to explain the mechanisms by which organizational capacities influence drought management. A survey of 309 randomly selected managers and specialists indicated serious weaknesses in the ability of the organization to apply adaptation strategies effectively. Analysis of the causal models illustrated that organizational culture and resources and infrastructure significantly influenced drought management performance. Moreover, managers and specialists perceived human resources and strategy, goals, and action plan, respectively, as the main drivers of institutional adaptation to drought conditions. Recommendations and implications for drought management policy are offered to increase organizational adaptation to drought and reduce the subsequent sufferings. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Promoting public health through state cancer control plans: a review of capacity and sustainability.

PubMed

Ory, Marcia G; Sanner, Brigid; Vollmer Dahlke, Deborah; Melvin, Cathy L

2015-01-01

The Centers for Disease Prevention and Control's National Comprehensive Cancer Control (CCC) Program oversee CCC programs designed to develop and implement CCC plans via CCC coalitions, alliances, or consortia of program stakeholders. We reviewed 40 up-to-date plans for states and the District of Columbia in order to assess how capacity building and sustainability, two evidence-based practices necessary for organizational readiness, positive growth, and maintenance are addressed. We employed an electronic key word search, supplemented by full text reviews of each plan to complete a content analysis of the CCC plans. Capacity is explicitly addressed in just over half of the plans (53%), generally from a conceptual point of view, with few specifics as to how capacity will be developed or enhanced. Roles and responsibilities, timelines for action, and measurements for evaluation of capacity building are infrequently mentioned. Almost all (92%) of the 40 up-to-date plans address sustainability on at least a cursory level, through efforts aimed at funding or seeking funding, policy initiatives, and/or partnership development. However, few details as to how these strategies will be implemented are found in the plans. We present the Texas plan as a case study offering detailed insight into how one plan incorporated capacity building and sustainability into its development and implementation. Training, technical assistance, templates, and tools may help CCC coalition members address capacity and sustainability in future planning efforts and assure the inclusion of capacity building and sustainability approaches in CCC plans at the state, tribal, territorial, and jurisdiction levels.

78 FR 29338 - Applications for New Award; Technical Assistance To Improve State Data Capacity-National...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-20

... formative and summative evaluations of the project; Note: The following Web site provides more information... plan, linked to the project's logic model, for a formative evaluation of the project's activities. The plan must describe how the formative evaluation will use clear performance objectives to ensure...

Implementing Scientific-Based Research: Learning from the History of the Reading First Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mohammed, Shereeza; Walker, David A.; Conderman, Greg; Pasapia, John

2016-01-01

The No Child Left Behind Act requires that educators at all grade levels use Scientifically Based Research (SBR) instructional practices. Researchers constructed a literature-based model to examine the predictive relationship between a state's comprehensiveness of planned implementation and its capacity to implement the plan. An approach comprised…

Modeling the effect of bus stops on capacity of curb lane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Qingyu; Zheng, Tianyao; Wu, Wenjing; Jia, Hongfei; Li, Jin

With the increase of buses and bus lines, a negative effect on road section capacity is made by the prolonged delay and queuing time at bus stops. However, existing methods of measuring the negative effect pay little attention to different bus stop types in the curb lanes. This paper uses Gap theory and Queuing theory to build models for effect-time and potential capacity in different conditions, including curbside bus stops, bus bays with overflow and bus bays without overflow. In order to make the effect-time models accurate and reliable, two types of probabilities are introduced. One is the probability that the dwell time is less than the headway of curb lane at curbside bus stops; the other is the overflow probability at bus bays. Based on the fundamental road capacity model and effect-time models, potential capacity models of curb lane are designed. The new models are calibrated by the survey data from Changchun City, and verified by the simulation software of VISSIM. Furthermore, with different arrival rates of vehicles, the setting conditions of bus stops are researched. Results show that the potential capacity models have high precision. They can offer a reference for recognizing the effect of bus stops on the capacity of curb lane, which can provide a basis for planning, design and management of urban roads and bus stops.

Airport Capacity Enhancement Plan 1988

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1988-01-01

The Airport Capacity Enhancement Plan plays a major role in the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) effort to increase airport capacity and efficiency without compromising the safety of passengers or the environment. The Plan identifies the cause...

Airport Capacity Enhancement Plan 1989

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1989-05-01

The Airport Capacity Enhancement Plan plays a major role in the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) effort to increase airport capacity and efficiency without compromising the safety of passengers or the environment. The Plan identifies the cause...

A model of succession planning for mental health nurse practitioners.

PubMed

Hampel, Sally; Procter, Nicholas; Deuter, Kate

2010-08-01

This paper reviews current literature on succession planning for mental health nurse practitioners (NPs) and discusses a model of succession planning that is underpinned by principals of leadership development, workforce participation and client engagement. The paper identifies succession planning as a means of managing a present and future workforce, while simultaneously addressing individual and organizational learning and practice development needs. A discussion of the processes attendant upon sustainable succession planning - collegial support, career planning and development, information exchange, capacity building, and mentoring is framed within the potential interrelationships between existing NP, developing NP and service directors and/or team managers. Done effectively and in partnership with wider clinical services, succession planning has the potential to build NP leadership development and leadership transition more broadly within mental health services.

Ability of regional hospitals to meet projected avian flu pandemic surge capacity requirements.

PubMed

Ten Eyck, Raymond P

2008-01-01

Hospital surge capacity is a crucial part of community disaster preparedness planning, which focuses on the requirements for additional beds, equipment, personnel, and special capabilities. The scope and urgency of these requirements must be balanced with a practical approach addressing cost and space concerns. Renewed concerns for infectious disease threats, particularly from a potential avian flu pandemic perspective, have emphasized the need to be prepared for a prolonged surge that could last six to eight weeks. The surge capacity that realistically would be generated by the cumulative Greater Dayton Area Hospital Association (GDAHA) plan is sufficient to meet the demands of an avian influenza pandemic as predicted by the [US] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) models. Using a standardized data form, surge response plans for each hospital in the GDAHA were assessed. The cumulative results were compared to the demand projected for an avian influenza pandemic using the CDC's FluAid and FluSurge models. The cumulative GDAHA capacity is sufficient to meet the projected demand for bed space, intensive care unit beds, ventilators, morgue space, and initial personal protective equipment (PPE) use. There is a shortage of negative pressure rooms, some basic equipment, and neuraminidase inhibitors. Many facilities lack a complete set of written surge policies, including screening plans to segregate contaminated patients and staff prior to entering the hospital. Few hospitals have agreements with nursing homes or home healthcare agencies to provide care for patients discharged in order to clear surge beds. If some of the assumptions in the CDC's models are changed to match the morbidity and mortality rates reported from the 1918 pandemic, the surge capacity of GDAHA facilities would not meet the projected demand. The GDAHA hospitals should test their regional distributors' ability to resupply PPE for multiple facilities simultaneously. Facilities should retrofit current air exchange systems to increase the number of potential negative pressure rooms and include such designs in all future construction. Neuraminidase inhibitor supplies should be increased to provide treatment for healthcare workers exposed in the course of their duties. Each hospital should have a complete set of policies to address the special considerations for a prolonged surge. Additional capacity is required to meet the predicted demands of a threat similar to the 1918 pandemic.

Research and application of genetic algorithm in path planning of logistics distribution vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yong; Zhou, Heng; Wang, Ying

2017-08-01

The core of the logistics distribution system is the vehicle routing planning, research path planning problem, provide a better solution has become an important issue. In order to provide the decision support for logistics and distribution operations, this paper studies the problem of vehicle routing with capacity constraints (CVRP). By establishing a mathematical model, the genetic algorithm is used to plan the path of the logistics vehicle to meet the minimum logistics and transportation costs.

The future of hydropower planning modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haas, J.; Zuñiga, D.; Nowak, W.; Olivares, M. A.; Castelletti, A.; Thilmant, A.

2017-12-01

Planning the investment and operation of hydropower plants with optimization tools dates back to the 1970s. The focus used to be solely on the provision of energy. However, advances in computational capacity and solving algorithms, dynamic markets, expansion of renewable sources, and a better understanding of hydropower environmental impacts have recently led to the development of novel planning approaches. In this work, we provide a review, systematization, and trend analysis of these approaches. Further, through interviews with experts, we outline the future of hydropower planning modeling and identify the gaps towards it. We classified the found models along environmental, economic, multipurpose and technical criteria. Environmental interactions include hydropeaking mitigation, water quality protection and limiting greenhouse gas emissions from reservoirs. Economic and regulatory criteria consider uncertainties of fossil fuel prices and relicensing of water rights and power purchase agreements. Multipurpose considerations account for irrigation, tourism, flood protection and drinking water. Recently included technical details account for sedimentation in reservoirs and variable efficiencies of turbines. Additional operational considerations relate to hydrological aspects such as dynamic reservoir inflows, water losses, and climate change. Although many of the above criteria have been addressed in detail on a project-to-project basis, models remain overly simplistic for planning large power fleets. Future hydropower planning tools are expected to improve the representation of the water-energy nexus, including environmental and multipurpose criteria. Further, they will concentrate on identifying new sources of operational flexibility (e.g. through installing additional turbines and pumps) for integrating renewable energy. The operational detail will increase, potentially emphasizing variable efficiencies, storage capacity losses due to sedimentation, and the timing of inflows (which are becoming more variable under climate change). Finally, the relicensing of existing operations and planning new installations are subject to deep uncertainties that need to be captured.

Modeling of Control Costs, Emissions, and Control Retrofits for Cost Effectiveness and Feasibility Analyses

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Learn about EPA’s use of the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) to develop estimates of SO2 and NOx emission control costs, projections of futureemissions, and projections of capacity of future control retrofits, assuming controls on EGUs.

Modeling hospitals' adaptive capacity during a loss of infrastructure services.

PubMed

Vugrin, Eric D; Verzi, Stephen J; Finley, Patrick D; Turnquist, Mark A; Griffin, Anne R; Ricci, Karen A; Wyte-Lake, Tamar

2015-01-01

Resilience in hospitals - their ability to withstand, adapt to, and rapidly recover from disruptive events - is vital to their role as part of national critical infrastructure. This paper presents a model to provide planning guidance to decision makers about how to make hospitals more resilient against possible disruption scenarios. This model represents a hospital's adaptive capacities that are leveraged to care for patients during loss of infrastructure services (power, water, etc.). The model is an optimization that reallocates and substitutes resources to keep patients in a high care state or allocates resources to allow evacuation if necessary. An illustrative example demonstrates how the model might be used in practice.

Quantifying impacts of heat waves on power grid operation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ke, Xinda; Wu, Di; Rice, Jennie S.

Climate change is projected to cause an increase in the severity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts. Such changes present planning and operating challenges and risks to many economic sectors. In the electricity sector, statistics of extreme events in the past have been used to help plan for future peak loads, determine associated infrastructure requirements, and evaluate operational risks, but industry-standard planning tools have yet to be coupled with or informed by temperature models to explore the impacts of the "new normal" on planning studies. For example, high ambient temperatures during heat waves reducemore » the output capacity and efficiency of gas fired combustion turbines just when they are needed most to meet peak demands. This paper describes the development and application of a production cost and unit commitment model coupled to high resolution, hourly temperature data and a temperature dependent load model. The coupled system has the ability to represent the impacts of hourly temperatures on load conditions and available capacity and efficiency of combustion turbines, and therefore capture the potential impacts on system reliability and production cost. Ongoing work expands this capability to address the impacts of water availability and temperature on power grid operation.« less

Mitigating effects of vaccination on influenza outbreaks given constraints in stockpile size and daily administration capacity

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Influenza viruses are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Vaccination remains a powerful tool for preventing or mitigating influenza outbreaks. Yet, vaccine supplies and daily administration capacities are limited, even in developed countries. Understanding how such constraints can alter the mitigating effects of vaccination is a crucial part of influenza preparedness plans. Mathematical models provide tools for government and medical officials to assess the impact of different vaccination strategies and plan accordingly. However, many existing models of vaccination employ several questionable assumptions, including a rate of vaccination proportional to the population at each point in time. Methods We present a SIR-like model that explicitly takes into account vaccine supply and the number of vaccines administered per day and places data-informed limits on these parameters. We refer to this as the non-proportional model of vaccination and compare it to the proportional scheme typically found in the literature. Results The proportional and non-proportional models behave similarly for a few different vaccination scenarios. However, there are parameter regimes involving the vaccination campaign duration and daily supply limit for which the non-proportional model predicts smaller epidemics that peak later, but may last longer, than those of the proportional model. We also use the non-proportional model to predict the mitigating effects of variably timed vaccination campaigns for different levels of vaccination coverage, using specific constraints on daily administration capacity. Conclusions The non-proportional model of vaccination is a theoretical improvement that provides more accurate predictions of the mitigating effects of vaccination on influenza outbreaks than the proportional model. In addition, parameters such as vaccine supply and daily administration limit can be easily adjusted to simulate conditions in developed and developing nations with a wide variety of financial and medical resources. Finally, the model can be used by government and medical officials to create customized pandemic preparedness plans based on the supply and administration constraints of specific communities. PMID:21806800

Time-Series Approaches for Forecasting the Number of Hospital Daily Discharged Inpatients.

PubMed

Ting Zhu; Li Luo; Xinli Zhang; Yingkang Shi; Wenwu Shen

2017-03-01

For hospitals where decisions regarding acceptable rates of elective admissions are made in advance based on expected available bed capacity and emergency requests, accurate predictions of inpatient bed capacity are especially useful for capacity reservation purposes. As given, the remaining unoccupied beds at the end of each day, bed capacity of the next day can be obtained by examining the forecasts of the number of discharged patients during the next day. The features of fluctuations in daily discharges like trend, seasonal cycles, special-day effects, and autocorrelation complicate decision optimizing, while time-series models can capture these features well. This research compares three models: a model combining seasonal regression and ARIMA, a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA (MSARIMA) model, and a combinatorial model based on MSARIMA and weighted Markov Chain models in generating forecasts of daily discharges. The models are applied to three years of discharge data of an entire hospital. Several performance measures like the direction of the symmetry value, normalized mean squared error, and mean absolute percentage error are utilized to capture the under- and overprediction in model selection. The findings indicate that daily discharges can be forecast by using the proposed models. A number of important practical implications are discussed, such as the use of accurate forecasts in discharge planning, admission scheduling, and capacity reservation.

Optimization Model for Capacity Management and Bed Scheduling for Hospital

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sitepu, Suryati; Mawengkang, Herman; Husein, Ismail

2018-01-01

Hospital is a very important institution to provide health care for people. It is not surprising that nowadays the people’s demands for hospital is increasing.. However, due to the rising cost of healthcare services, hospitals need to consider efficiencies in order to overcome these two problems. This paper deals with an integrated strategy of staff capacity management and bed allocation planning to tackle these problems. Mathematically, the strategy can be modeled as an integer linear programming problem. We solve the model using a direct neighborhood search approach, based on the notion of superbasic variables.

Generation expansion planning in a competitive electric power industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuang, Angela Shu-Woan

This work investigates the application of non-cooperative game theory to generation expansion planning (GEP) in a competitive electricity industry. We identify fundamental ways competition changes the nature of GEP, review different models of oligopoly behavior, and argue that assumptions of the Cournot model are compatible with GEP. Applying Cournot theory of oligopoly behavior, we formulate a GEP model that may characterize expansion in the new competitive regime, particularly in pool-dominated generation supply industries. Our formulation incorporates multiple markets and is patterned after the basic design of the California ISO/PX system. Applying the model, we conduct numerical experiments on a test system, and analyze generation investment and market participation decisions of different candidate expansion units that vary in costs and forced outage rates. Simulations are performed under different scenarios of competition. In particular, we observe higher probabilistic measures of reliability from Cournot expansion compared to the expansion plan of a monopoly with an equivalent minimum reserve margin requirement. We prove several results for a subclass of problems encompassed by our formulation. In particular, we prove that under certain conditions Cournot competition leads to greater total capacity expansion than a situation in which generators collude in a cartel. We also show that industry output after introduction of new technology is no less than monopoly output. So a monopoly may lack sufficient incentive to introduce new technologies. Finally, we discuss the association between capacity payments and the issue of pricing reliability. And we derive a formula for computing ideal capacity payment rates by extending the Value of Service Reliability technique.

Planning Decrements in Healthy Aging: Mediation Effects of Fluid Reasoning and Working Memory Capacity.

PubMed

Köstering, Lena; Leonhart, Rainer; Stahl, Christoph; Weiller, Cornelius; Kaller, Christoph P

2016-03-01

Although age-related differences in planning ability are well known, their cognitive foundations remain a matter of contention. To elucidate the specific processes underlying planning decrements in older age, the relative contributions of fluid reasoning, working memory (WM) capacity, and processing speed to accuracy on the Tower of London (TOL) planning task were investigated. Mediation analyses were used to relate overall and search depth-related TOL accuracy from older (N = 106; 60-89 years) and younger adults (N = 69; 18-54 years) to age and measures of fluid reasoning, WM capacity, and speed. For overall planning, fluid abilities mediated the effects of age, WM capacity, and speed in older adults. By contrast, fluid abilities and WM capacity mediated each other in younger adults. For planning accuracy under low demands on the depth of search, WM capacity was specifically important in older age, whereas younger adults recruited both WM capacity and fluid reasoning. Under high search-depth-demands, fluid abilities underlay the cognitive operations critical for resolving move interdependencies in both age groups. Fluid abilities and WM capacity undergo significant changes from younger to older age in their unique contribution to planning, which might represent a mechanism whereby planning decrements in older age are brought about. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impacts of land cover data selection and trait parameterisation on dynamic modelling of species' range expansion.

PubMed

Heikkinen, Risto K; Bocedi, Greta; Kuussaari, Mikko; Heliölä, Janne; Leikola, Niko; Pöyry, Juha; Travis, Justin M J

2014-01-01

Dynamic models for range expansion provide a promising tool for assessing species' capacity to respond to climate change by shifting their ranges to new areas. However, these models include a number of uncertainties which may affect how successfully they can be applied to climate change oriented conservation planning. We used RangeShifter, a novel dynamic and individual-based modelling platform, to study two potential sources of such uncertainties: the selection of land cover data and the parameterization of key life-history traits. As an example, we modelled the range expansion dynamics of two butterfly species, one habitat specialist (Maniola jurtina) and one generalist (Issoria lathonia). Our results show that projections of total population size, number of occupied grid cells and the mean maximal latitudinal range shift were all clearly dependent on the choice made between using CORINE land cover data vs. using more detailed grassland data from three alternative national databases. Range expansion was also sensitive to the parameterization of the four considered life-history traits (magnitude and probability of long-distance dispersal events, population growth rate and carrying capacity), with carrying capacity and magnitude of long-distance dispersal showing the strongest effect. Our results highlight the sensitivity of dynamic species population models to the selection of existing land cover data and to uncertainty in the model parameters and indicate that these need to be carefully evaluated before the models are applied to conservation planning.

International workshop on ITS benefits : how evaluation results are used in transportation decision-making, November 9, 2000 Turin, Italy

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-09-16

This paper demonstrates application of the principles of economic analysis to evaluate highway capacity expansion in an urban setting, using a sketch-planning model called Spreadsheet Model for Induced Travel Estimation (SMITE). The application takes...

Understanding the Current 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan Through Three Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-01

to what the Navy can ultimately build in ten years and beyond due to the fact that this plan is revised annually. In a political game this...the game and each one hoping for a different outcome. Though not currently possible with the FY2015 Long Range Plan it is possible to analyze the...to make a choice while the bounded rationality theory acknowledges the limits of human capabilities, knowledge, and capacity. Therefore, bounded

Optimal rail container shipment planning problem in multimodal transportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Chengxuan; Gao, Ziyou; Li, Keping

2012-09-01

The optimal rail container shipment planning problem in multimodal transportation is studied in this article. The characteristics of the multi-period planning problem is presented and the problem is formulated as a large-scale 0-1 integer programming model, which maximizes the total profit generated by all freight bookings accepted in a multi-period planning horizon subject to the limited capacities. Two heuristic algorithms are proposed to obtain an approximate optimal solution of the problem. Finally, numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate the proposed formulation and heuristic algorithms.

24 CFR 570.205 - Eligible planning, urban environmental design and policy-planning-management-capacity building...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 3 2011-04-01 2010-04-01 true Eligible planning, urban... ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR COMMUNITY PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT, DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT..., urban environmental design and policy-planning-management-capacity building activities. (a) Planning...

Development of a resource modelling tool to support decision makers in pandemic influenza preparedness: The AsiaFluCap Simulator.

PubMed

Stein, Mart Lambertus; Rudge, James W; Coker, Richard; van der Weijden, Charlie; Krumkamp, Ralf; Hanvoravongchai, Piya; Chavez, Irwin; Putthasri, Weerasak; Phommasack, Bounlay; Adisasmito, Wiku; Touch, Sok; Sat, Le Minh; Hsu, Yu-Chen; Kretzschmar, Mirjam; Timen, Aura

2012-10-12

Health care planning for pandemic influenza is a challenging task which requires predictive models by which the impact of different response strategies can be evaluated. However, current preparedness plans and simulations exercises, as well as freely available simulation models previously made for policy makers, do not explicitly address the availability of health care resources or determine the impact of shortages on public health. Nevertheless, the feasibility of health systems to implement response measures or interventions described in plans and trained in exercises depends on the available resource capacity. As part of the AsiaFluCap project, we developed a comprehensive and flexible resource modelling tool to support public health officials in understanding and preparing for surges in resource demand during future pandemics. The AsiaFluCap Simulator is a combination of a resource model containing 28 health care resources and an epidemiological model. The tool was built in MS Excel© and contains a user-friendly interface which allows users to select mild or severe pandemic scenarios, change resource parameters and run simulations for one or multiple regions. Besides epidemiological estimations, the simulator provides indications on resource gaps or surpluses, and the impact of shortages on public health for each selected region. It allows for a comparative analysis of the effects of resource availability and consequences of different strategies of resource use, which can provide guidance on resource prioritising and/or mobilisation. Simulation results are displayed in various tables and graphs, and can also be easily exported to GIS software to create maps for geographical analysis of the distribution of resources. The AsiaFluCap Simulator is freely available software (http://www.cdprg.org) which can be used by policy makers, policy advisors, donors and other stakeholders involved in preparedness for providing evidence based and illustrative information on health care resource capacities during future pandemics. The tool can inform both preparedness plans and simulation exercises and can help increase the general understanding of dynamics in resource capacities during a pandemic. The combination of a mathematical model with multiple resources and the linkage to GIS for creating maps makes the tool unique compared to other available software.

An evaluation of the predictive performance of distributional models for flora and fauna in north-east New South Wales.

PubMed

Pearce, J; Ferrier, S; Scotts, D

2001-06-01

To use models of species distributions effectively in conservation planning, it is important to determine the predictive accuracy of such models. Extensive modelling of the distribution of vascular plant and vertebrate fauna species within north-east New South Wales has been undertaken by linking field survey data to environmental and geographical predictors using logistic regression. These models have been used in the development of a comprehensive and adequate reserve system within the region. We evaluate the predictive accuracy of models for 153 small reptile, arboreal marsupial, diurnal bird and vascular plant species for which independent evaluation data were available. The predictive performance of each model was evaluated using the relative operating characteristic curve to measure discrimination capacity. Good discrimination ability implies that a model's predictions provide an acceptable index of species occurrence. The discrimination capacity of 89% of the models was significantly better than random, with 70% of the models providing high levels of discrimination. Predictions generated by this type of modelling therefore provide a reasonably sound basis for regional conservation planning. The discrimination ability of models was highest for the less mobile biological groups, particularly the vascular plants and small reptiles. In the case of diurnal birds, poor performing models tended to be for species which occur mainly within specific habitats not well sampled by either the model development or evaluation data, highly mobile species, species that are locally nomadic or those that display very broad habitat requirements. Particular care needs to be exercised when employing models for these types of species in conservation planning.

The use of programme planning and social marketing models by a state public health agency: a case study.

PubMed

Kohr, J M; Strack, R W; Newton-Ward, M; Cooke, C H

2008-03-01

To investigate the use of planning models and social marketing planning principles within a state's central public health agency as a means for informing improved planning practices. Qualitative semi-structured interviews were conducted with 30 key programme planners in selected division branches, and a quantitative survey was distributed to 63 individuals responsible for programme planning in 12 programme-related branches. Employees who have an appreciation of and support for structured programme planning and social marketing may be considered the 'low hanging fruit' or 'early adopters'. On the other hand, employees that do not support or understand either of the two concepts have other barriers to using social marketing when planning programmes. A framework describing the observed factors involved in programme planning on an individual, interpersonal and organizational level is presented. Understanding the individual and structural barriers and facilitators of structured programme planning and social marketing is critical to increase the planning capacity within public health agencies.

Integrated planning for regional development planning and water resources management under uncertainty: A case study of Xining, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Z. H.; Zhao, H. J.; Wang, H.; Lu, W. T.; Wang, J.; Guo, H. C.

2017-11-01

Economic restructuring, water resources management, population planning and environmental protection are subjects to inner uncertainties of a compound system with objectives which are competitive alternatives. Optimization model and water quality model are usually used to solve problems in a certain aspect. To overcome the uncertainty and coupling in reginal planning management, an interval fuzzy program combined with water quality model for regional planning and management has been developed to obtain the absolutely ;optimal; solution in this study. The model is a hybrid methodology of interval parameter programming (IPP), fuzzy programing (FP), and a general one-dimensional water quality model. The method extends on the traditional interval parameter fuzzy programming method by integrating water quality model into the optimization framework. Meanwhile, as an abstract concept, water resources carrying capacity has been transformed into specific and calculable index. Besides, unlike many of the past studies about water resource management, population as a significant factor has been considered. The results suggested that the methodology was applicable for reflecting the complexities of the regional planning and management systems within the planning period. The government policy makers could establish effective industrial structure, water resources utilization patterns and population planning, and to better understand the tradeoffs among economic, water resources, population and environmental objectives.

The Model of Gas Supply Capacity Simulation In Regional Energy Security Framework: Policy Studies PT. X Cirebon Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nuryadin; Ronny Rahman Nitibaskara, Tb; Herdiansyah, Herdis; Sari, Ravita

2017-10-01

The needs of energy are increasing every year. The unavailability of energy will cause economic losses and weaken energy security. To overcome the availability of gas supply in the future, planning are cruacially needed. Therefore, it is necessary to approach the system, so that the process of gas distribution is running properly. In this research, system dynamic method will be used to measure how much supply capacity planning is needed until 2050, with parameters of demand in industrial, household and commercial sectors. From the model obtained PT.X Cirebon area in 2031 was not able to meet the needs of gas customers in the Cirebon region, as well as with Businnes as usual scenario, the ratio of gas fulfillment only until 2027. The implementation of the national energy policy that is the use of NRE as government intervention in the model is produced up to 2035 PT.X Cirebon area is still able to supply the gas needs of its customers.

21st Century Power Partnership Fellowship Program: Supporting Next-generation Planning Modeling Practices at South Africa's Power Utility Eskom

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zinaman, Owen

This presentation details the 21st Century Power Partnership's fellowship program accomplishments from 2016. This fellowship brought two fellows from South Africa's power utility, Eskom, to the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The fellows spent two weeks working to improve the fidelity of Eskom's PLEXOS long-term and short-term models, which are used in long-term generation planning exercises and capacity adequacy assessments. The fellows returned to Eksom equipped with a new suite of tools and skills to enhance Eksom's PLEXOS modeling capabilities.

Modeling an integrated hospital management planning problem using integer optimization approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sitepu, Suryati; Mawengkang, Herman; Irvan

2017-09-01

Hospital is a very important institution to provide health care for people. It is not surprising that nowadays the people’s demands for hospital is increasing. However, due to the rising cost of healthcare services, hospitals need to consider efficiencies in order to overcome these two problems. This paper deals with an integrated strategy of staff capacity management and bed allocation planning to tackle these problems. Mathematically, the strategy can be modeled as an integer linear programming problem. We solve the model using a direct neighborhood search approach, based on the notion of superbasic variables.

Enhancing the Capacity of Community Organizations to Evaluate HIV/AIDS Information Outreach: A Pilot Experiment in Expert Consultation

PubMed Central

Dancy-Scott, Nicole; Williams-Livingston, Arletha; Plumer, Andrew; Dutcher, Gale A.; Siegel, Elliot R.

2017-01-01

The National Library of Medicine’s AIDS Community Information Outreach Program (ACIOP) supports and enables access to health information on the Internet by community-based organizations. A technical assistance (TA) model was developed to enhance the capacity of ACIOP awardees to plan, evaluate, and report the results of their funded projects. This consisted of individual Consultation offered by an experienced evaluator to advise on the suitability of proposed project plans and objectives, improve measurement analytics, assist in problem resolution and outcomes reporting, and identify other improvement possibilities. Group webinars and a moderated blog for the exchange of project-specific information were also offered. Structured data collections in the form of reports, online surveys, and key informant telephone interviews provided qualitative feedback on project progress, satisfaction with the TA, and the perceived impact of the interventions on evaluation capacity building. The Model was implemented in the 2013 funding cycle with seven organizations, and the level of reported satisfaction was uniformly high. One-on-one TA was requested by four awardee organizations, and was determined to have made a meaningful difference with three. Participation in the webinars was mandatory and high overall; and was deemed to be a useful means for delivering evaluation information. In subsequent funding cycles, submission of a Logic Model will be required of awardees as a new model intervention in the expectation that it will produce stronger proposals, and enable the evaluation consultant to identify earlier intervention opportunities leading to project improvements and evaluation capacity enhancements. PMID:28405054

Planning Inmarsat's second generation of spacecraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, W. P.

1982-09-01

The next generation of studies of the Inmarsat service are outlined, such as traffic forecasting studies, communications capacity estimates, space segment design, cost estimates, and financial analysis. Traffic forecasting will require future demand estimates, and a computer model has been developed which estimates demand over the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian ocean regions. Communications estimates are based on traffic estimates, as a model converts traffic demand into a required capacity figure for a given area. The Erlang formula is used, requiring additional data such as peak hour ratios and distribution estimates. Basic space segment technical requirements are outlined (communications payload, transponder arrangements, etc), and further design studies involve such areas as space segment configuration, launcher and spacecraft studies, transmission planning, and earth segment configurations. Cost estimates of proposed design parameters will be performed, but options must be reduced to make construction feasible. Finally, a financial analysis will be carried out in order to calculate financial returns.

Resilient off-grid microgrids: Capacity planning and N-1 security

DOE PAGES

Madathil, Sreenath Chalil; Yamangil, Emre; Nagarajan, Harsha; ...

2017-06-13

Over the past century the electric power industry has evolved to support the delivery of power over long distances with highly interconnected transmission systems. Despite this evolution, some remote communities are not connected to these systems. These communities rely on small, disconnected distribution systems, i.e., microgrids to deliver power. However, as microgrids often are not held to the same reliability standards as transmission grids, remote communities can be at risk for extended blackouts. To address this issue, we develop an optimization model and an algorithm for capacity planning and operations of microgrids that include N-1 security and other practical modelingmore » features like AC power flow physics, component efficiencies and thermal limits. Lastly, we demonstrate the computational effectiveness of our approach on two test systems; a modified version of the IEEE 13 node test feeder and a model of a distribution system in a remote community in Alaska.« less

Resilient off-grid microgrids: Capacity planning and N-1 security

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Madathil, Sreenath Chalil; Yamangil, Emre; Nagarajan, Harsha

Over the past century the electric power industry has evolved to support the delivery of power over long distances with highly interconnected transmission systems. Despite this evolution, some remote communities are not connected to these systems. These communities rely on small, disconnected distribution systems, i.e., microgrids to deliver power. However, as microgrids often are not held to the same reliability standards as transmission grids, remote communities can be at risk for extended blackouts. To address this issue, we develop an optimization model and an algorithm for capacity planning and operations of microgrids that include N-1 security and other practical modelingmore » features like AC power flow physics, component efficiencies and thermal limits. Lastly, we demonstrate the computational effectiveness of our approach on two test systems; a modified version of the IEEE 13 node test feeder and a model of a distribution system in a remote community in Alaska.« less

Disaster planning: the basics of creating a burn mass casualty disaster plan for a burn center.

PubMed

Kearns, Randy D; Conlon, Kathe M; Valenta, Andrea L; Lord, Graydon C; Cairns, Charles B; Holmes, James H; Johnson, Daryhl D; Matherly, Annette F; Sawyer, Dalton; Skarote, Mary Beth; Siler, Sean M; Helminiak, Radm Clare; Cairns, Bruce A

2014-01-01

In 2005, the American Burn Association published burn disaster guidelines. This work recognized that local and state assets are the most important resources in the initial 24- to 48-hour management of a burn disaster. Historical experiences suggest there is ample opportunity to improve local and state preparedness for a major burn disaster. This review will focus on the basics of developing a burn surge disaster plan for a mass casualty event. In the event of a disaster, burn centers must recognize their place in the context of local and state disaster plan activation. Planning for a burn center takes on three forms; institutional/intrafacility, interfacility/intrastate, and interstate/regional. Priorities for a burn disaster plan include: coordination, communication, triage, plan activation (trigger point), surge, and regional capacity. Capacity and capability of the plan should be modeled and exercised to determine limitations and identify breaking points. When there is more than one burn center in a given state or jurisdiction, close coordination and communication between the burn centers are essential for a successful response. Burn surge mass casualty planning at the facility and specialty planning levels, including a state burn surge disaster plan, must have interface points with governmental plans. Local, state, and federal governmental agencies have key roles and responsibilities in a burn mass casualty disaster. This work will include a framework and critical concepts any burn disaster planning effort should consider when developing future plans.

Evaluating the Value of High Spatial Resolution in National Capacity Expansion Models using ReEDS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishnan, Venkat; Cole, Wesley

2016-11-14

Power sector capacity expansion models (CEMs) have a broad range of spatial resolutions. This paper uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a long-term national scale electric sector CEM, to evaluate the value of high spatial resolution for CEMs. ReEDS models the United States with 134 load balancing areas (BAs) and captures the variability in existing generation parameters, future technology costs, performance, and resource availability using very high spatial resolution data, especially for wind and solar modeled at 356 resource regions. In this paper we perform planning studies at three different spatial resolutions--native resolution (134 BAs), state-level, and NERCmore » region level--and evaluate how results change under different levels of spatial aggregation in terms of renewable capacity deployment and location, associated transmission builds, and system costs. The results are used to ascertain the value of high geographically resolved models in terms of their impact on relative competitiveness among renewable energy resources.« less

The EPA-Wide Plan to Provide Solid Waste Management Capacity Assistance to Tribes

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This Plan is a strategy for building tribal capacity to manage solid waste. The Plan promotes the development and implementation of integrated waste management plans and describes how EPA will prioritize its resources to maximize environmental benefits.

Aviation Capacity Enhancement (ACE) Plan

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-12-31

A comprehensive review of Federal Aviation Administration programs intended to improve the capacity of the National Air Transportation System. The Plan describes the extent of capacity and delay problems currently associated with air travel in the U....

1995 Aviation Capacity Enhancement (ACE) Plan

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-12-31

A comprehensive review of Federal Aviation Administration programs intended to improve : the capacity of the National Air Transportation System. The Plan describes the extent of capacity : and delay problems currently associated with air travel in th...

U1108 performance model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trachta, G.

1976-01-01

A model of Univac 1108 work flow has been developed to assist in performance evaluation studies and configuration planning. Workload profiles and system configurations are parameterized for ease of experimental modification. Outputs include capacity estimates and performance evaluation functions. The U1108 system is conceptualized as a service network; classical queueing theory is used to evaluate network dynamics.

Capital planning for operating theatres based on projecting future theatre requirements.

PubMed

Sheehan, Jennifer A; Tyler, Peter; Jayasinha, Hirani; Meleady, Kathleen T; Jones, Neill

2011-05-01

During 2006, NSW and ACT Health Departments jointly engaged KPMG to develop an Operating Theatre Requirements' Projection Model and an accompanying planning guideline. A research scan was carried out to identify drivers of surgical demand, theatre capacity and theatre performance, as well as locating existing approaches to modelling operating theatre requirements for planning purposes. The project delivered a Microsoft Excel-based model for projecting future operating theatre requirements, together with an accompanying guideline for use of the model and interpretation of its outputs. It provides a valuable addition to the suite of tools available to Health staff for service and capital planning. The model operates with several limitations, largely due to being data dependent, and the state and completeness of available theatre activity data. However, the operational flexibility built into the model allows users to compensate for these limitations, on a case by case basis, when the user has access to suitable, local data. The design flexibility of the model means that updating the model as improved data become available is not difficult; resulting in revisions being able to be made quickly, and disseminated to users rapidly.

Research and Development of a Convertible Use Rapidly Expandable Model for Response to Disasters and Mass Casualties

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-10-01

Local health departments and communities must be prepared to address gaps where the capacity of healthcare systems is exceeded. 6 The...team to identify and understand gaps in available assets. Resources evaluated included regional hospitals, plans for patient care surge capacity...Tracking certain prescription purchases can yield clues to a new disease outbreak in the community. Software to evaluate for trends can monitor

Creation of inpatient capacity during a major hospital relocation: lessons for disaster planning.

PubMed

Jen, Howard C; Shew, Stephen B; Atkinson, James B; Rosenthal, J Thomas; Hiatt, Jonathan R

2009-09-01

To identify tools to aid the creation of disaster surge capacity using a model of planned inpatient census reduction prior to relocation of a university hospital. Prospective analysis of hospital operations for 1-week periods beginning 2 weeks (baseline) and 1 week (transition) prior to move day; analysis of regional hospital and emergency department capacity. Large metropolitan university teaching hospital. Hospital census figures and patient outcomes. Census was reduced by 36% from 537 at baseline to 345 on move day, a rate of 18 patients/d (P < .005). Census reduction was greater for surgical services than nonsurgical services (46% vs 30%; P = .02). Daily volume of elective operations also decreased significantly, while the number of emergency operations was unchanged. Hospital admissions were decreased by 42%, and the adjusted discharges per occupied bed were increased by 8% (both P < .05). Inpatient mortality was not affected. Regional capacity to absorb new patients was limited. During a period in which southern California population grew by 8.5%, acute care beds fell by 3.3%, while Los Angeles County emergency departments experienced a 13% diversion rate due to overcrowding. Local or regional disasters of any size can overwhelm the system's ability to respond. Our strategy produced a surge capacity of 36% without interruption of emergency department and trauma services but required 3 to 4 days for implementation, making it applicable to disasters and mass casualty events with longer lead times. These principles may aid in disaster preparedness and planning.

Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley; Frew, Bethany; Mai, Trieu

Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision-makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators — primarily wind and solar photovoltaics — the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. This report summarizes the analyses and model experiments that were conducted as part of two workshops on modeling VRE for national-scale capacity expansion models. It discusses the various methods for treatingmore » VRE among four modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The report reviews the findings from the two workshops and emphasizes the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making. This research is intended to inform the energy modeling community on the modeling of variable renewable resources, and is not intended to advocate for or against any particular energy technologies, resources, or policies.« less

A multi-echelon supply chain model for municipal solid waste management system.

PubMed

Zhang, Yimei; Huang, Guo He; He, Li

2014-02-01

In this paper, a multi-echelon multi-period solid waste management system (MSWM) was developed by inoculating with multi-echelon supply chain. Waste managers, suppliers, industries and distributors could be engaged in joint strategic planning and operational execution. The principal of MSWM system is interactive planning of transportation and inventory for each organization in waste collection, delivery and disposal. An efficient inventory management plan for MSWM would lead to optimized productivity levels under available capacities (e.g., transportation and operational capacities). The applicability of the proposed system was illustrated by a case with three cities, one distribution and two waste disposal facilities. Solutions of the decision variable values under different significant levels indicate a consistent trend. With an increased significant level, the total generated waste would be decreased, and the total transported waste through distribution center to waste to energy and landfill would be decreased as well. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A multi-echelon supply chain model for municipal solid waste management system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yimei, E-mail: yimei.zhang1@gmail.com; Huang, Guo He; He, Li

2014-02-15

In this paper, a multi-echelon multi-period solid waste management system (MSWM) was developed by inoculating with multi-echelon supply chain. Waste managers, suppliers, industries and distributors could be engaged in joint strategic planning and operational execution. The principal of MSWM system is interactive planning of transportation and inventory for each organization in waste collection, delivery and disposal. An efficient inventory management plan for MSWM would lead to optimized productivity levels under available capacities (e.g., transportation and operational capacities). The applicability of the proposed system was illustrated by a case with three cities, one distribution and two waste disposal facilities. Solutions ofmore » the decision variable values under different significant levels indicate a consistent trend. With an increased significant level, the total generated waste would be decreased, and the total transported waste through distribution center to waste to energy and landfill would be decreased as well.« less

Policy measures on strengthening and developing capabilities for national tobacco control in Thailand.

PubMed

Kengkarnpanich, Mondha; Termsirikulchai, Lakkhana; Benjakul, Sarunya

2012-06-01

To assess the situation and report on a national capacity plan for tobacco control under the National Strategic Plan for Tobacco Control (NSPTC) 2010-2014. Systematic documentary review and analysis were managed by the working group. The results were discussed and provided recommendations by the sub-committee on developing the NSPTC 2010-2014. Seven meetings were organized from March 2009-January 2010. Eventually, the NSPCT 2010-2014 was approved by the National Committee for Tobacco Control, chaired by the Minister of Public Health on 22 April 2010. The major result of the present study was brought to the National Capacity in Tobacco Control Plan under the NSPTC 2010-2014. The purpose of the plan is to strengthen and develop national tobacco control capacity before 2011. Seven strategic areas for National Tobacco Control Capacity have been proposed. They are, 1) tobacco control policy and leadership development, 2) developing an organizational structure and management systems, 3) developing surveillance, monitoring and evaluation systems, 4)formulate measures to support research and knowledge management, 5) capacity building and network expansion for tobacco control in various sectors, 6) capacity building and expansion of a collaborative network for tobacco control at regional levels and 7) improving and strengthening tobacco control laws. In addition, the indicators, key players and support partners were addressed. Although the strength of the strategic plan on National Capacity in Tobacco Control is participatory planning process and result in the integrated and comprehensive capacity in tobacco control plan, but some concerns should be considers. They are infrastructure, evidence and networking and leadership.

NAS operational evolution plan : a foundation for capacity enhancement 2001-2010

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-06-01

This series of World Wide Web slides focuses on the Operational Evolution Plan, which is a 10-year plan for aviation operational improvements to increase capacity and safety in the United States. This plan is unique in that it integrates all actions:...

Building the Capacity of Indonesian Education Universities for ICT in Pre-Service Teacher Education: A Case Study of a Strategic Planning Exercise

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lim, Cher Ping; Pannen, Paulina

2012-01-01

This paper documents how four Indonesian teacher education institutions (TEIs) engaged in strategic planning to build their capacity in developing pre-service teachers' ICT in education competencies. These TEIs adopted a holistic approach towards strategic planning by drawing upon the six dimensions of the "Capacity Building Toolkit" for…

Multi-objective spatial tools to inform maritime spatial planning in the Adriatic Sea.

PubMed

Depellegrin, Daniel; Menegon, Stefano; Farella, Giulio; Ghezzo, Michol; Gissi, Elena; Sarretta, Alessandro; Venier, Chiara; Barbanti, Andrea

2017-12-31

This research presents a set of multi-objective spatial tools for sea planning and environmental management in the Adriatic Sea Basin. The tools address four objectives: 1) assessment of cumulative impacts from anthropogenic sea uses on environmental components of marine areas; 2) analysis of sea use conflicts; 3) 3-D hydrodynamic modelling of nutrient dispersion (nitrogen and phosphorus) from riverine sources in the Adriatic Sea Basin and 4) marine ecosystem services capacity assessment from seabed habitats based on an ES matrix approach. Geospatial modelling results were illustrated, analysed and compared on country level and for three biogeographic subdivisions, Northern-Central-Southern Adriatic Sea. The paper discusses model results for their spatial implications, relevance for sea planning, limitations and concludes with an outlook towards the need for more integrated, multi-functional tools development for sea planning. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Modeling hospital surgical delivery process design using system simulation: optimizing patient flow and bed capacity as an illustration.

PubMed

Kumar, Sameer

2011-01-01

It is increasingly recognized that hospital operation is an intricate system with limited resources and many interacting sources of both positive and negative feedback. The purpose of this study is to design a surgical delivery process in a county hospital in the U.S where patient flow through a surgical ward is optimized. The system simulation modeling is used to address questions of capacity planning, throughput management and interacting resources which constitute the constantly changing complexity that characterizes designing a contemporary surgical delivery process in a hospital. The steps in building a system simulation model is demonstrated using an example of building a county hospital in a small city in the US. It is used to illustrate a modular system simulation modeling of patient surgery process flows. The system simulation model development will enable planners and designers how they can build in overall efficiencies in a healthcare facility through optimal bed capacity for peak patient flow of emergency and routine patients.

Electrical utilities model for determining electrical distribution capacity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fritz, R. L.

1997-09-03

In its simplest form, this model was to obtain meaningful data on the current state of the Site`s electrical transmission and distribution assets, and turn this vast collection of data into useful information. The resulting product is an Electrical Utilities Model for Determining Electrical Distribution Capacity which provides: current state of the electrical transmission and distribution systems; critical Hanford Site needs based on outyear planning documents; decision factor model. This model will enable Electrical Utilities management to improve forecasting requirements for service levels, budget, schedule, scope, and staffing, and recommend the best path forward to satisfy customer demands at themore » minimum risk and least cost to the government. A dynamic document, the model will be updated annually to reflect changes in Hanford Site activities.« less

Regional approach to building operational level capacity for disaster planning: the case of the Eastern Africa region.

PubMed

Bazeyo, W; Mayega, R W; Orach, G C; Kiguli, J; Mamuya, S; Tabu, J S; Sena, L; Rugigana, E; Mapatano, M; Lewy, D; Mock, N; Burnham, G; Keim, M; Killewo, J

2013-06-01

The Eastern Africa region is regularly affected by a variety of disasters ranging from drought, to human conflict and population displacement. The magnitude of emergencies and response capacities is similar across the region. In order to strengthen public health disaster management capacities at the operational level in six countries of the Eastern Africa region, the USAID-funded leadership project worked through the HEALTH Alliance, a network of seven schools of public health from six countries in the region to train district-level teams. To develop a sustainable regional approach to building operational level capacity for disaster planning. This project was implemented through a higher education leadership initiative. Project activities were spear-headed by a network of Deans and Directors of public health schools within local universities in the Eastern Africa region. The leadership team envisioned a district-oriented systems change strategy. Pre-service and in-service curricula were developed regionally and district teams were formed to attend short training courses. Project activities began with a situational analysis of the disaster management capacity at national and operational levels. The next steps were chronologically the formation of country training teams and training of trainers, the development of a regional disaster management training curriculum and training materials, the cascading of training activities in the region, and the incorporation of emerging issues into the training curriculum. An evaluation model included the analysis of preparedness impact of the training program. The output from the district teams was the creation of individual district-level disaster plans and their implementation. This 4-year project focused on building operational level public health emergency response capacity, which had not previously been part of any national program. Use of the all-hazard approach rather than a scenario-based contingency planning led to the development of a standardized curriculum for training both in-service and pre-service personnel. Materials developed during the implementation phases of the project have been incorporated into public health graduate curricula in the seven schools. This systems-based strategy resulted in demonstrable outcomes related to district preparedness and university engagement in disaster management. University partnerships are an effective method to build district-level disaster planning capacity. Use of a regional network created a standardized approach across six countries.

Modeling Water Utility Investments and Improving Regulatory Policies using Economic Optimisation in England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padula, S.; Harou, J. J.

2012-12-01

Water utilities in England and Wales are regulated natural monopolies called 'water companies'. Water companies must obtain periodic regulatory approval for all investments (new supply infrastructure or demand management measures). Both water companies and their regulators use results from least economic cost capacity expansion optimisation models to develop or assess water supply investment plans. This presentation first describes the formulation of a flexible supply-demand planning capacity expansion model for water system planning. The model uses a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation to choose the least-cost schedule of future supply schemes (reservoirs, desalination plants, etc.) and demand management (DM) measures (leakage reduction, water efficiency and metering options) and bulk transfers. Decisions include what schemes to implement, when to do so, how to size schemes and how much to use each scheme during each year of an n-year long planning horizon (typically 30 years). In addition to capital and operating (fixed and variable) costs, the estimated social and environmental costs of schemes are considered. Each proposed scheme is costed discretely at one or more capacities following regulatory guidelines. The model uses a node-link network structure: water demand nodes are connected to supply and demand management (DM) options (represented as nodes) or to other demand nodes (transfers). Yields from existing and proposed are estimated separately using detailed water resource system simulation models evaluated over the historical period. The model simultaneously considers multiple demand scenarios to ensure demands are met at required reliability levels; use levels of each scheme are evaluated for each demand scenario and weighted by scenario likelihood so that operating costs are accurately evaluated. Multiple interdependency relationships between schemes (pre-requisites, mutual exclusivity, start dates, etc.) can be accounted for by additional constraints. User-defined annual water saving profiles are used for DM schemes so that water conservation 'yields' can follow observed patterns. A two-stage optimization procedure is applied to deal with network infeasibilities which appear in large applications. We apply the model to a regional system of seven water companies in the South East of England, the driest part of the UK with its largest and fastest growing population. The model's spatial units are water supply zones, i.e. interconnected zones of equal supply reliability; each company contains between 3 and 8 of these. Economic benefits of greater sharing of resources among water companies (regional water transfers) are evaluated by considering bi-directional interconnections between all neighboring supply zones. Next we describe an extension of the model to investigate how current regulations incentivize companies to invest in an attempt to understand how better regulations can incentivize more water transfers. Finally, an attempt is made to change from the current model assumption of perfect cooperation between companies to one that represents the fact that each company is a private company seeking to maximize its own benefits. Limitations and advantages of the formulations are discussed and recommendations for capacity expansion modeling are made.

46 CFR 170.180 - Plans and information required at the stability test.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... Displacement and Centers of Gravity § 170.180 Plans and information required at the stability test. The owner...) Capacity plans showing capacities and vertical and longitudinal centers of gravity of stowage spaces and...

46 CFR 170.180 - Plans and information required at the stability test.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... Displacement and Centers of Gravity § 170.180 Plans and information required at the stability test. The owner...) Capacity plans showing capacities and vertical and longitudinal centers of gravity of stowage spaces and...

46 CFR 170.180 - Plans and information required at the stability test.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... Displacement and Centers of Gravity § 170.180 Plans and information required at the stability test. The owner.... (c) Capacity plans showing capacities and vertical and longitudinal centers of gravity of stowage...

46 CFR 170.180 - Plans and information required at the stability test.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... Displacement and Centers of Gravity § 170.180 Plans and information required at the stability test. The owner...) Capacity plans showing capacities and vertical and longitudinal centers of gravity of stowage spaces and...

46 CFR 170.180 - Plans and information required at the stability test.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... Displacement and Centers of Gravity § 170.180 Plans and information required at the stability test. The owner...) Capacity plans showing capacities and vertical and longitudinal centers of gravity of stowage spaces and...

A model and solving algorithm of combination planning for weapon equipment based on Epoch-era analysis method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Meng; Zhang, Huaiqiang; Zhang, Kan

2017-10-01

Focused on the circumstance that the equipment using demand in the short term and the development demand in the long term should be made overall plans and took into consideration in the weapons portfolio planning and the practical problem of the fuzziness in the definition of equipment capacity demand. The expression of demand is assumed to be an interval number or a discrete number. With the analysis method of epoch-era, a long planning cycle is broke into several short planning cycles with different demand value. The multi-stage stochastic programming model is built aimed at maximize long-term planning cycle demand under the constraint of budget, equipment development time and short planning cycle demand. The scenario tree is used to discretize the interval value of the demand, and genetic algorithm is designed to solve the problem. At last, a case is studied to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed mode.

Revised Planning Methodology For Signalized Intersections And Operational Analysis Of Exclusive Left-Turn Lanes, Part-II: Models And Procedures (Final Report)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-04-01

THIS REPORT ALSO DESCRIBES THE PROCEDURES FOR DIRECT ESTIMATION OF INTERSECTION CAPACITY WITH SIMULATION, INCLUDING A SET OF RIGOROUS STATISTICAL TESTS FOR SIMULATION PARAMETER CALIBRATION FROM FIELD DATA.

Planning and problem-solving training for patients with schizophrenia: a randomized controlled trial

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The purpose of this study was to assess whether planning and problem-solving training is more effective in improving functional capacity in patients with schizophrenia than a training program addressing basic cognitive functions. Methods Eighty-nine patients with schizophrenia were randomly assigned either to a computer assisted training of planning and problem-solving or a training of basic cognition. Outcome variables included planning and problem-solving ability as well as functional capacity, which represents a proxy measure for functional outcome. Results Planning and problem-solving training improved one measure of planning and problem-solving more strongly than basic cognition training, while two other measures of planning did not show a differential effect. Participants in both groups improved over time in functional capacity. There was no differential effect of the interventions on functional capacity. Conclusion A differential effect of targeting specific cognitive functions on functional capacity could not be established. Small differences on cognitive outcome variables indicate a potential for differential effects. This will have to be addressed in further research including longer treatment programs and other settings. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00507988 PMID:21527028

Three essays on the effect of wind generation on power system planning and operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Clay Duane

While the benefits of wind generation are well known, some drawbacks are still being understood as wind power is integrated into the power grid at increasing levels. The primary difference between wind generation and other forms of generation is the intermittent, and somewhat unpredictable, aspect of this resource. The somewhat uncontrollable aspect of wind generation makes it important to consider the relationship between this resource and load, and also how the operation of other non-wind generation resources may be affected. The three essays that comprise this dissertation focus on these and other important issues related to wind generation; leading to an improved understanding of how to better plan for and utilize this resource. The first essay addresses the cost of increased levels of installed wind capacity from both a capacity planning and economic dispatch perspective to arrive at the total system cost of installing a unit of wind capacity. This total includes not only the cost of the wind turbine and associated infrastructure, but also the cost impact an additional unit of wind capacity has on the optimal mix and operation of other generating units in the electricity supply portfolio. The results of the model showed that for all wind expansion scenarios, wind capacity is not cost-effective regardless of the level of the wind production tax credit and carbon prices that were considered. Larger levels of installed wind capacity result in reduced variable cost, but this reduction is not able to offset increases in capital cost, as a unit of installed wind capacity does not result in an equal reduction in other non-wind capacity needs. The second essay develops a methodology to better handle unexpected short term fluctuations in wind generation within the existing power system. The methodology developed in this essay leads to lower expected costs by anticipating and planning for fluctuations in wind generation by focusing on key constraints in the system. The modified methodology achieves expected costs for the UC-ED problem that are as low as the full stochastic model and markedly lower than the deterministic model. The final essay focuses on valuing energy storage located at a wind site through multiple revenue streams, where energy storage is valued from the perspective of a profit maximizing investor. Given the current state of battery storage technology, a battery capacity of zero is optimal in the setting considered in this essay. The results presented in this essay are dependent on a technological breakthrough that substantially reduces battery cost and conclude that allowing battery storage to simultaneously participate in multiple wholesale markets is optimal relative to participating in any one market alone. Also, co-locating battery storage and wind provides value by altering the optimal transmission line capacity to the battery and wind site. This dissertation considers problems of wind integration from an economic perspective and builds on existing work in this area. The economics of wind integration and utilization are important because wind generation levels are already significant and will likely become more so in the future. While this dissertation adds to the existing literature, additional work is needed in this area to ensure wind generation adds as much value to the overall system as possible.

Integrating MRP (materiel requirements planning) II and JIT to achieve world-class status.

PubMed

Titone, R C

1994-05-01

The concepts and principles of using manufacturing resource planning (MRP II) for planning are not new. Their success has been proven in numerous manufacturing companies in America. The concepts and principles of using just-in-time (JIT) inventory for execution, while more recent, have also been available for some time, and their success in Japan well documented. However, it is the effective integration of these two powerful tools that open the way to achieving world-class manufacturing status. This article will utilize a newly developed world-class manufacturing model, which will review the aspects of planning, beginning with a business plan through the production planning process and culminating with a master schedule that drives a materiel/capacity plan. The importance and interrelationship of these functions are reviewed. The model then illustrates the important aspects of executing these plans beginning with people issues, through total quality control (TQC) and pull systems. We will then utilize this new functional model to demonstrate the relationship between these various functions and the importance of integrating them with a total comprehensive manufacturing strategy that will lead to world-class manufacturing and profits.

A capacity-based approach for addressing ancillary care needs: implications for research in resource limited settings.

PubMed

Bright, Patricia L; Nelson, Robert M

2012-11-01

A paediatric clinical trial conducted in a developing country is likely to encounter conditions or illnesses in participants unrelated to the study. Since local healthcare resources may be inadequate to meet these needs, research clinicians may face the dilemma of deciding when to provide ancillary care and to what extent. The authors propose a model for identifying ancillary care obligations that draws on assessments of urgency, the capacity of the local healthcare infrastructure and the capacity of the research infrastructure. The model lends itself to a decision tree that can be adapted to the local context and resources so as to provide procedural guidance. This approach can help in planning and establishing organisational policies that govern the provision of ancillary care.

Development of a resource modelling tool to support decision makers in pandemic influenza preparedness: The AsiaFluCap Simulator

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Health care planning for pandemic influenza is a challenging task which requires predictive models by which the impact of different response strategies can be evaluated. However, current preparedness plans and simulations exercises, as well as freely available simulation models previously made for policy makers, do not explicitly address the availability of health care resources or determine the impact of shortages on public health. Nevertheless, the feasibility of health systems to implement response measures or interventions described in plans and trained in exercises depends on the available resource capacity. As part of the AsiaFluCap project, we developed a comprehensive and flexible resource modelling tool to support public health officials in understanding and preparing for surges in resource demand during future pandemics. Results The AsiaFluCap Simulator is a combination of a resource model containing 28 health care resources and an epidemiological model. The tool was built in MS Excel© and contains a user-friendly interface which allows users to select mild or severe pandemic scenarios, change resource parameters and run simulations for one or multiple regions. Besides epidemiological estimations, the simulator provides indications on resource gaps or surpluses, and the impact of shortages on public health for each selected region. It allows for a comparative analysis of the effects of resource availability and consequences of different strategies of resource use, which can provide guidance on resource prioritising and/or mobilisation. Simulation results are displayed in various tables and graphs, and can also be easily exported to GIS software to create maps for geographical analysis of the distribution of resources. Conclusions The AsiaFluCap Simulator is freely available software (http://www.cdprg.org) which can be used by policy makers, policy advisors, donors and other stakeholders involved in preparedness for providing evidence based and illustrative information on health care resource capacities during future pandemics. The tool can inform both preparedness plans and simulation exercises and can help increase the general understanding of dynamics in resource capacities during a pandemic. The combination of a mathematical model with multiple resources and the linkage to GIS for creating maps makes the tool unique compared to other available software. PMID:23061807

Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

Building policy-making capacity in the Ministry of Health: the Kazakhstan experience.

PubMed

Chanturidze, Tata; Adams, Orvill; Tokezhanov, Bolat; Naylor, Mike; Richardson, Erica

2015-01-20

Recent economic growth in Kazakhstan has been accompanied by slower improvements in population health and this has renewed impetus for health system reform. Strengthening strategic planning and policy-making capacity in the Ministry of Health has been identified as an important priority, particularly as the Ministry of Health is leading the health system reform process. The intervention was informed by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) framework for capacity building which views capacity building as an ongoing process embedded in local institutions and practices. In response to local needs extra elements were included in the framework to tailor the capacity building programme according to the existing policy and budget cycles and respective competence requirements, and link it with transparent career development structures of the Ministry of Health. This aspect of the programme was informed by the institutional capability assessment model used by the United Kingdom National Health Service (NHS) which was adapted to examine the specific organizational and individual competences of the Ministry of Health in Kazakhstan. There were clear successes in building capacity for policy making and strategic planning within the Ministry of Health in Kazakhstan, including better planned, more timely and in-depth responses to policy assignments. Embedding career development as a part of this process was more challenging. This case study highlights the importance of strong political will and high level support for capacity building in ensuring the sustainability of programmes. It also shows that capacity-building programmes need to ensure full engagement with all local stakeholders, or where this is not possible, programmes need to be targeted narrowly to those stakeholders who will benefit most, for the greatest impact to be achieved. In sum, high quality tailor-made capacity development programmes should be based on thorough needs assessment of individual and organizational competences in a specific institutional setting. The experience showed that complementary approaches to human resource development worked effectively in the context of organizations and systems, where an enabling environment was present, and country ownership and political will was complemented by strong technical assistance to design and deliver high quality tailor-made capacity building initiatives.

Implications of water constraints for electricity capacity expansion in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Hejazi, M. I.; Iyer, G.; Forman, B. A.

2017-12-01

U.S. electricity generation is vulnerable to water supply since water is required for cooling. Constraints on the availability of water will therefore necessitate adaptive planning by the power generation sector. Hence, it is important to integrate restrictions in water availability in electricity capacity planning in order to better understand the economic viability of alternative capacity planning options. The study of the implications of water constraints for the U.S. power generation system is limited in terms of scale and robustness. We extend previous studies by including physical water constraints in a state-level model of the U.S. energy system embedded within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM-USA). We focus on the implications of such constraints for the U.S. electricity capacity expansion, integrating both supply and demand effects under a consistent framework. Constraints on the availability of water have two general effects across the U.S. First, water availability constraints increase the cost of electricity generation, resulting in reduced electrification of end-use sectors. Second, water availability constraints result in forced retirements of water-intensive technologies such as thermoelectric coal- and gas- fired technologies before the end of their natural lifetimes. The demand for electricity is then met by an increase in investments in less water-dependent technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaic. Our results show that the regional patterns of the above effects are heterogeneous across the U.S. In general, the impacts of water constraints on electricity capacity expansion are more pronounced in the West than in the East. This is largely because of lower water availability in the West compared to the East due to lower precipitation in the Western states. Constraints on the availability of water might also have important implications for U.S. electricity trade. For example, under severe constraints on the availability of water, some states flip from being net exporters of electricity to becoming net importers and vice versa. Our study demonstrates the impacts of water availability constraints on electricity capacity expansion in the U.S. and highlights the need to integrate such constraints into decision-making so as to better understand state-level challenges.

Prototyping and validating requirements of radiation and nuclear emergency plan simulator

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hamid, AHA., E-mail: amyhamijah@nm.gov.my; Faculty of Computing, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia; Rozan, MZA.

2015-04-29

Organizational incapability in developing unrealistic, impractical, inadequate and ambiguous mechanisms of radiological and nuclear emergency preparedness and response plan (EPR) causing emergency plan disorder and severe disasters. These situations resulting from 65.6% of poor definition and unidentified roles and duties of the disaster coordinator. Those unexpected conditions brought huge aftermath to the first responders, operators, workers, patients and community at large. Hence, in this report, we discuss prototyping and validating of Malaysia radiation and nuclear emergency preparedness and response plan simulation model (EPRM). A prototyping technique was required to formalize the simulation model requirements. Prototyping as systems requirements validation wasmore » carried on to endorse the correctness of the model itself against the stakeholder’s intensions in resolving those organizational incapability. We have made assumptions for the proposed emergency preparedness and response model (EPRM) through the simulation software. Those assumptions provided a twofold of expected mechanisms, planning and handling of the respective emergency plan as well as in bringing off the hazard involved. This model called RANEPF (Radiation and Nuclear Emergency Planning Framework) simulator demonstrated the training emergency response perquisites rather than the intervention principles alone. The demonstrations involved the determination of the casualties’ absorbed dose range screening and the coordination of the capacity planning of the expected trauma triage. Through user-centred design and sociotechnical approach, RANEPF simulator was strategized and simplified, though certainly it is equally complex.« less

Prototyping and validating requirements of radiation and nuclear emergency plan simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, AHA.; Rozan, MZA.; Ibrahim, R.; Deris, S.; Selamat, A.

2015-04-01

Organizational incapability in developing unrealistic, impractical, inadequate and ambiguous mechanisms of radiological and nuclear emergency preparedness and response plan (EPR) causing emergency plan disorder and severe disasters. These situations resulting from 65.6% of poor definition and unidentified roles and duties of the disaster coordinator. Those unexpected conditions brought huge aftermath to the first responders, operators, workers, patients and community at large. Hence, in this report, we discuss prototyping and validating of Malaysia radiation and nuclear emergency preparedness and response plan simulation model (EPRM). A prototyping technique was required to formalize the simulation model requirements. Prototyping as systems requirements validation was carried on to endorse the correctness of the model itself against the stakeholder's intensions in resolving those organizational incapability. We have made assumptions for the proposed emergency preparedness and response model (EPRM) through the simulation software. Those assumptions provided a twofold of expected mechanisms, planning and handling of the respective emergency plan as well as in bringing off the hazard involved. This model called RANEPF (Radiation and Nuclear Emergency Planning Framework) simulator demonstrated the training emergency response perquisites rather than the intervention principles alone. The demonstrations involved the determination of the casualties' absorbed dose range screening and the coordination of the capacity planning of the expected trauma triage. Through user-centred design and sociotechnical approach, RANEPF simulator was strategized and simplified, though certainly it is equally complex.

Operations research for resource planning and -use in radiotherapy: a literature review.

PubMed

Vieira, Bruno; Hans, Erwin W; van Vliet-Vroegindeweij, Corine; van de Kamer, Jeroen; van Harten, Wim

2016-11-25

The delivery of radiotherapy (RT) involves the use of rather expensive resources and multi-disciplinary staff. As the number of cancer patients receiving RT increases, timely delivery becomes increasingly difficult due to the complexities related to, among others, variable patient inflow, complex patient routing, and the joint planning of multiple resources. Operations research (OR) methods have been successfully applied to solve many logistics problems through the development of advanced analytical models for improved decision making. This paper presents the state of the art in the application of OR methods for logistics optimization in RT, at various managerial levels. A literature search was performed in six databases covering several disciplines, from the medical to the technical field. Papers included in the review were published in peer-reviewed journals from 2000 to 2015. Data extraction includes the subject of research, the OR methods used in the study, the extent of implementation according to a six-stage model and the (potential) impact of the results in practice. From the 33 papers included in the review, 18 addressed problems related to patient scheduling (of which 12 focus on scheduling patients on linear accelerators), 8 focus on strategic decision making, 5 on resource capacity planning, and 2 on patient prioritization. Although calculating promising results, none of the papers reported a full implementation of the model with at least a thorough pre-post performance evaluation, indicating that, apart from possible reporting bias, implementation rates of OR models in RT are probably low. The literature on OR applications in RT covers a wide range of approaches from strategic capacity management to operational scheduling levels, and shows that considerable benefits in terms of both waiting times and resource utilization are likely to be achieved. Various fields can be further developed, for instance optimizing the coordination between the available capacity of different imaging devices or developing scheduling models that consider the RT chain of operations as a whole rather than the treatment machines alone.

Utility-Scale Photovoltaic Deployment Scenarios of the Western United States: Implications for Solar Energy Zones in Nevada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frew, Bethany; Mai, Trieu; Krishnan, Venkat

2016-12-01

In this study, we use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to estimate utility-scale photovoltaic (UPV) deployment trends from present day through 2030. The analysis seeks to inform the U.S. Bureau of Land Management's (BLM's) planning activities related to UPV development on federal lands in Nevada as part of the Resource Management Plan (RMP) revision for the Las Vegas and Pahrump field offices. These planning activities include assessing the demand for new or expanded additional Solar Energy Zones (SEZ), per the process outlined in BLM's Western Solar Plan process.

Perfection Of Methods Of Mathematical Analysis For Increasing The Completeness Of Subsoil Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fokina, Mariya

2017-11-01

The economy of Russia is based around the mineral-raw material complex to the highest degree. The mining industry is a prioritized and important area. Given the high competitiveness of businesses in this sector, increasing the efficiency of completed work and manufactured products will become a central issue. Improvement of planning and management in this sector should be based on multivariant study and the optimization of planning decisions, the appraisal of their immediate and long-term results, taking the dynamic of economic development into account. All of this requires the use of economic mathematic models and methodsApplying an economic-mathematic model to determine optimal ore mine production capacity, we receive a figure of 4,712,000 tons. The production capacity of the Uchalinsky ore mine is 1560 thousand tons, and the Uzelginsky ore mine - 3650 thousand. Conducting a corresponding analysis of the production of OAO "Uchalinsky Gok", an optimal production plan was received: the optimal production of copper - 77961,4 rubles; the optimal production of zinc - 17975.66 rubles. The residual production volume of the two main ore mines of OAO "UGOK" is 160 million tons of ore.

An organizational metamodel for hospital emergency departments.

PubMed

Kaptan, Kubilay

2014-10-01

I introduce an organizational model describing the response of the hospital emergency department. The hybrid simulation/analytical model (called a "metamodel") can estimate a hospital's capacity and dynamic response in real time and incorporate the influence of damage to structural and nonstructural components on the organizational ones. The waiting time is the main parameter of response and is used to evaluate the disaster resilience of health care facilities. Waiting time behavior is described by using a double exponential function and its parameters are calibrated based on simulated data. The metamodel covers a large range of hospital configurations and takes into account hospital resources in terms of staff and infrastructures, operational efficiency, and the possible existence of an emergency plan; maximum capacity; and behavior both in saturated and overcapacitated conditions. The sensitivity of the model to different arrival rates, hospital configurations, and capacities and the technical and organizational policies applied during and before a disaster were investigated. This model becomes an important tool in the decision process either for the engineering profession or for policy makers.

Simple Queueing Model Applied to the City of Portland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, Patrice M.; Esser, Jörg; Nagel, Kai

We use a simple traffic micro-simulation model based on queueing dynamics as introduced by Gawron [IJMPC, 9(3):393, 1998] in order to simulate traffic in Portland/Oregon. Links have a flow capacity, that is, they do not release more vehicles per second than is possible according to their capacity. This leads to queue built-up if demand exceeds capacity. Links also have a storage capacity, which means that once a link is full, vehicles that want to enter the link need to wait. This leads to queue spill-back through the network. The model is compatible with route-plan-based approaches such as TRANSIMS, where each vehicle attempts to follow its pre-computed path. Yet, both the data requirements and the computational requirements are considerably lower than for the full TRANSIMS microsimulation. Indeed, the model uses standard emme/2 network data, and runs about eight times faster than real time with more than 100 000 vehicles simultaneously in the simulation on a single Pentium-type CPU. We derive the model's fundamental diagrams and explain it. The simulation is used to simulate traffic on the emme/2 network of the Portland (Oregon) metropolitan region (20 000 links). Demand is generated by a simplified home-to-work destination assignment which generates about half a million trips for the morning peak. Route assignment is done by iterative feedback between micro-simulation and router. An iterative solution of the route assignment for the above problem can be achieved within about half a day of computing time on a desktop workstation. We compare results with field data and with results of traditional assignment runs by the Portland Metropolitan Planning Organization. Thus, with a model such as this one, it is possible to use a dynamic, activities-based approach to transportation simulation (such as in TRANSIMS) with affordable data and hardware. This should enable systematic research about the coupling of demand generation, route assignment, and micro-simulation output.

Capacity evaluation and infrastructure planning techniques for heterogeneous railway traffic under structured, flexible and mixed operations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-01-22

The objective of this study is to develop new railway capacity evaluation tools and infrastructure planning techniques to address infrastructure or operations planning challenges under different operating styles. Three main research questions will be...

The road less taken: modularization and waterways as a domestic disaster response mechanism.

PubMed

Donahue, Donald A; Cunnion, Stephen O; Godwin, Evelyn A

2013-01-01

Preparedness scenarios project the need for significant healthcare surge capacity. Current planning draws heavily from the military model, leveraging deployable infrastructure to augment or replace extant capabilities. This approach would likely prove inadequate in a catastrophic disaster, as the military model relies on forewarning and an extended deployment cycle. Local equipping for surge capacity is prohibitively costly while movement of equipment can be subject to a single point of failure. Translational application of maritime logistical techniques and an ancient mode of transportation can provide a robust and customizable approach to disaster relief for greater than 90 percent of the American population.

Sexual Consent Capacity Assessment with Older Adults.

PubMed

Syme, Maggie L; Steele, Debora

2016-09-01

Many healthcare providers have a limited knowledge of sexual and intimate expression in later life, often due to attitudinal and informational limitations. Further, the likelihood of an older adult experiencing cognitive decline increases in a long-term care (LTC) setting, complicating the ability of the providers to know if the older adult can make his or her own sexual decisions, or has sexual consent capacity. Thus, the team is left to question if and how to support intimacy and/or sexuality among residents with intimacy needs. Psychologists working with LTC need to be aware and knowledgeable about sexual consent capacity in older adulthood to be prepared to conduct evaluations and participate in planning care. Limited research is available to consult for best practices in sexual consent capacity assessment; however, models of assessment have been developed based on the best available evidence, clinical judgment, and practice. Existing models will be discussed and an integrated model will be illustrated via a case study. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Configuration Management, Capacity Planning Decision Support, Modeling and Simulation

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-12-01

flow includes both top-down and bottom-up requirements. The flow also includes hardware, software and transfer acquisition, installation, operation ... management and upgrade as required. Satisfaction of a users needs and requirements is a difficult and detailed process. The key assumptions at this

78 FR 1917 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Request for Comments for a New Information Collection

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-09

... support transportation research, capacity building, data collection, planning, travel modeling, and... Information Collection Activities: Request for Comments for a New Information Collection AGENCY: Federal... information collection, which is summarized below under SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION. We published a Federal...

Advancing Embedded and Extrinsic Solutions for Optimal Control and Efficiency of Energy Systems in Buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bay, Christopher Joseph

Massachusetts' Act to Promote Energy Diversity requires distribution companies to solicit contracts for up to 1600 MW of offshore wind. To test whether offshore wind projects can meet the Act's requirement to reduce C02 emissions, the Oak Ridge Competitive Electricity Dispatch Model was used to forecast changes in ISO New England's resource mix under five different wind capacity levels and calculate avoided C02 emissions attributable to offshore wind. With 1600 MW of installed capacity, representing full solicitation under the Act, reliance on natural gas is reduced by ˜10% and carbon emissions decline by ˜9%. This represents significant progress towards the goals of the Global Warming Solutions Act and the Clean Power Plan. The 5000 MW scenario reduces emissions enough to meet the Clean Power Plan's 2030 goals. This study's application of a dispatch model provides an example for policymakers of a simple and cost-effective approach for assessing a project's value.

Capacity planning for waste management systems: an interval fuzzy robust dynamic programming approach.

PubMed

Nie, Xianghui; Huang, Guo H; Li, Yongping

2009-11-01

This study integrates the concepts of interval numbers and fuzzy sets into optimization analysis by dynamic programming as a means of accounting for system uncertainty. The developed interval fuzzy robust dynamic programming (IFRDP) model improves upon previous interval dynamic programming methods. It allows highly uncertain information to be effectively communicated into the optimization process through introducing the concept of fuzzy boundary interval and providing an interval-parameter fuzzy robust programming method for an embedded linear programming problem. Consequently, robustness of the optimization process and solution can be enhanced. The modeling approach is applied to a hypothetical problem for the planning of waste-flow allocation and treatment/disposal facility expansion within a municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. Interval solutions for capacity expansion of waste management facilities and relevant waste-flow allocation are generated and interpreted to provide useful decision alternatives. The results indicate that robust and useful solutions can be obtained, and the proposed IFRDP approach is applicable to practical problems that are associated with highly complex and uncertain information.

The Effect of Planning Sub-Processes on L2 Writing Fluency, Grammatical Complexity, and Lexical Complexity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Mark D.; Mercado, Leonardo; Acevedo, Anthony

2012-01-01

This study contributes to L2 writing research which seeks to tie predictions of the Limited Attentional Capacity Model (Skehan, 1998; Skehan & Foster, 2001) and Cognition Hypothesis (Robinson, 2001, 2005, 2011a, 2011b) to models of working memory in L1 writing (Kellogg, 1996). The study uses a quasi-experimental research design to investigate…

Deploying initial attack resources for wildfire suppression: spatial coordination, budget constraints, and capacity constraints

Treesearch

Yohan Lee; Jeremy S. Fried; Heidi J. Albers; Robert G. Haight

2013-01-01

We combine a scenario-based, standard-response optimization model with stochastic simulation to improve the efficiency of resource deployment for initial attack on wildland fires in three planning units in California. The optimization model minimizes the expected number of fires that do not receive a standard response--defined as the number of resources by type that...

The impact of rural hospital closures on equity of commuting time for haemodialysis patients: simulation analysis using the capacity-distance model.

PubMed

Matsumoto, Masatoshi; Ogawa, Takahiko; Kashima, Saori; Takeuchi, Keisuke

2012-07-23

Frequent and long-term commuting is a requirement for dialysis patients. Accessibility thus affects their quality of lives. In this paper, a new model for accessibility measurement is proposed in which both geographic distance and facility capacity are taken into account. Simulation of closure of rural facilities and that of capacity transfer between urban and rural facilities are conducted to evaluate the impacts of these phenomena on equity of accessibility among dialysis patients. Post code information as of August 2011 of all the 7,374 patients certified by municipalities of Hiroshima prefecture as having first or third grade renal disability were collected. Information on post code and the maximum number of outpatients (capacity) of all the 98 dialysis facilities were also collected. Using geographic information systems, patient commuting times were calculated in two models: one that takes into account road distance (distance model), and the other that takes into account both the road distance and facility capacity (capacity-distance model). Simulations of closures of rural and urban facilities were then conducted. The median commuting time among rural patients was more than twice as long as that among urban patients (15 versus 7 minutes, p<0.001). In the capacity-distance model 36.1% of patients commuted to the facilities which were different from the facilities in the distance model, creating a substantial gap of commuting time between the two models. In the simulation, when five rural public facilitiess were closed, Gini coefficient of commuting times among the patients increased by 16%, indicating a substantial worsening of equity, and the number of patients with commuting times longer than 90 minutes increased by 72 times. In contrast, closure of four urban public facilities with similar capacities did not affect these values. Closures of dialysis facilities in rural areas have a substantially larger impact on equity of commuting times among dialysis patients than closures of urban facilities. The accessibility simulations using the capacity-distance model will provide an analytic framework upon which rational resource distribution policies might be planned.

Effects of Contoured Pallets on AMC Mission Efficiency

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-01

carrier moves it on a B-747-100 as if it was a B-747-400, all while not planning to take advantage of the additional cargo capacity of the newer...nature of the cargo being moved and determine if opportunities existed to take advantage of increased MD-11 airlift. Each model had different...types of cargo can help efficiency by planning contoured requirements to take advantage of the fact that while moving these pallets underutilizes

Analysis of Bearing Capacity Pile Foundation with Using Capwap Software for Testing Pile Driving Analyzer (pda) at Fasfel Development Project Parlimbungan Ketek Sikara-Kara Mandailing Natal District (north Sumatera)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oberlyn Simanjuntak, Johan; Suita, Diana

2017-12-01

Pile foundation is one type deep foundation that serves to distribute the load of hard soil structure loading which has a high bearing capacity that is located deep enough inside the soil. To determine the bearing capacity of the pile and at the same time control the Calendring results, the Pile Driving Analyzer (PDA) test at 8 pile sections from the 84 point piling section (10% of the number sections), the results were analyzed by CAPWAP SOFTWARE, and the highest bearing capacity of Ru 177 ton and the lowest bearing capacity of 111 tons, is bigger than the plan load which load plans that is 60,9 tons. Finally the PDA safe is bearing bearing capacity of the load planning.

Maternal health development programs: comparing priorities of bilateral and private donors.

PubMed

Deleye, Cécile; Lang, Achim

2014-11-19

The face of international aid for health and development is changing. Private donors such as foundations and corporations are playing an increasingly important role, working in international development as direct operators or in partnerships with governments. This study compares maternal health programs of new development actors to traditional governmental donors. It aims to investigate what maternal health programs large governmental donors, foundations and corporate donors are conducting, and how and why they differ. A total of 263 projects were identified and analyzed. We focus on nine categories of maternal health programs: family planning services, focus on specific diseases, focus on capacity building, use of information and communication technology (ICT), support of research initiatives, cooperation with local non-state or state partners and cooperation with non-local non-state or state partners. Data analysis was carried out using Generalized Linear Mixed-Effects Models (GLMER). Maternal health policies of public and private donors differ with regard to strategic approaches, as can be seen in their diverging positions regarding disease focus, family planning services, capacity building, and partner choice. Bilateral donors can be characterized as focusing on family planning services, specific diseases and capacity-building while disregarding research and ICT. Bilateral donors cooperate with local public authorities and with governments and NGOs from other developed countries. In contrast, corporations focus their donor activities on specific diseases, capacity-building and ICT while disregarding family planning services and research. Corporations cooperate with local and in particular with non-local non-state actors. Foundations can be characterized as focusing on family planning services and research, while disregarding specific diseases, capacity-building and ICT. Foundations cooperate less than other donors; but when they do, they cooperate in particular with non-state actors, local as well as non-local. These findings should help developing coordination mechanisms that embrace the differences and similarities of the different types of donors. As donor groups specialize in different contexts, NGOs and governments working on development and health aid may target donors groups that have specialized in certain issues.

A case study predicting environmental impacts of urban transport planning in China.

PubMed

Chen, Chong; Shao, Li-guo; Xu, Ling; Shang, Jin-cheng

2009-10-01

Predicting environmental impacts is essential when performing an environmental assessment on urban transport planning. System dynamics (SD) is usually used to solve complex nonlinear problems. In this study, we utilized system dynamics (SD) to evaluate the environmental impacts associated with urban transport planning in Jilin City, China with respect to the local economy, society, transport, the environment and resources. To accomplish this, we generated simulation models comprising interrelated subsystems designed to utilize changes in the economy, society, road construction, changes in the number of vehicles, the capacity of the road network capacity, nitrogen oxides emission, traffic noise, land used for road construction and fuel consumption associated with traffic to estimate dynamic trends in the environmental impacts associated with Jilin's transport planning. Two simulation scenarios were then analyzed comparatively. The results of this study indicated that implementation of Jilin transport planning would improve the current urban traffic conditions and boost the local economy and development while benefiting the environment in Jilin City. In addition, comparative analysis of the two scenarios provided additional information that can be used to aid in scientific decision-making regarding which aspects of the transport planning to implement in Jilin City. This study demonstrates that our application of the SD method, which is referred to as the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), is feasible for use in urban transport planning.

Africa's neglected area of human resources for health research - the way forward.

PubMed

Ijsselmuiden, C; Marais, D L; Becerra-Posada, F; Ghannem, H

2012-03-07

Building the skills for doing, managing and delivering health research is essential for every country's development. Yet, human resources for health research (HRHR) are seldom considered in Africa and elsewhere. Africa's health research capacity has grown considerably, with potential to increase this growth. However, a systemic way of defining, co-ordinating and growing the HRHR needed to support health systems development is missing. Reviewing the status of HRHR in Africa, we assert that it consists of uncoordinated, small-scale activities, primarily driven from outside Africa. We present examples of ongoing HRHR capacity building initiatives in Africa. There is no overarching framework, strategy or body for African countries to optimise research support and capacity in HRHR. A simple model is presented to help countries plan and strategise for a comprehensive approach to research capacity strengthening. Everyone engaged with global, regional and national research for health enterprises must proactively address human resource planning for health research in Africa. Unless this is made explicit in global and national agendas, Africa will remain only an interested spectator in the decisions, prioritisation, funding allocations, conduct and interpretation, and in the institutional, economic and social benefits of health research, rather than owning and driving its own health research agendas.

Energy and environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loulou, Richard; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Zaccour, Georges

2005-07-01

This volume on energy and environmental modeling describes a broad variety of modeling methodologies. It includes chapters covering: The Sustainability of Economic Growth by Cabo, Martin-Herran & Martinez-Garcia; Abatement Scenarios in the Swiss Housing Sector by L. Drouet and others; Support and Planning for Off-Site Emergency Management, by Geldermann and others; Hybrid Energy-Economy Models, by Jaccard; The World-MARKAL Model and Its Application, by Kanudia and others; Methodology for Evaluating a Market of Tradable CO{sub 2}-Permits, by Kunsch and Springael; MERGE - A Model for Global Climate Change, by Manne and Richels; A Linear Programming Model for Capacity Expansion in anmore » Autonomous Power Generation System, by Mavrotas and Diakoulaki; Transport and Climate Policy Modeling in the Transport Sector, by Paltsev and others; Analysis of Ontario Electricity Capacity Requirements and Emissions, by Pineau and Schott; Environmental Damage in Energy/Environmental Policy Evaluation, by Van Regemorter. 71 figs.« less

Design and Simulation Plant Layout Using Systematic Layout Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhardini, D.; Septiani, W.; Fauziah, S.

2017-12-01

This research aims to design the factory layout of PT. Gunaprima Budiwijaya in order to increase production capacity. The problem faced by this company is inappropriate layout causes cross traffic on the production floor. The re-layout procedure consist of these three steps: analysing the existing layout, designing plant layout based on SLP and evaluation and selection of alternative layout using Simulation Pro model version 6. Systematic layout planning is used to re-layout not based on the initial layout. This SLP produces four layout alternatives, and each alternative will be evaluated based on two criteria, namely cost of material handling using Material Handling Evaluation Sheet (MHES) and processing time by simulation. The results showed that production capacity is increasing as much as 37.5% with the addition of the machine and the operator, while material handling cost was reduced by improvement of the layout. The use of systematic layout planning method reduces material handling cost of 10,98% from initial layout or amounting to Rp1.229.813,34.

Trends in capacity utilization for therapeutic monoclonal antibody production.

PubMed

Langer, Eric S

2009-01-01

The administration of high doses of therapeutic antibodies requires large-scale, efficient, cost effective manufacturing processes. An understanding of how the industry is using its available production capacity is important for production planning, and facility expansion analysis. Inaccurate production planning for therapeutic antibodies can have serious financial ramifications. In the recent 5(th) Annual Report and Survey of Biopharmaceutical Manufacturing Capacity and Production, 434 qualified respondents from 39 countries were asked to indicate, among other manufacturing issues, their current trends and future predictions with respect to the production capacity utilization of monoclonal antibodies in mammalian cell culture systems. While overall production of monoclonals has expanded dramatically since 2003, the average capacity utilization for mammalian cell culture systems, has decreased each year since 2003. Biomanufacturers aggressively attempt to avoid unanticipated high production demands that can create a capacity crunch. We summarize trends associated with capacity utilization and capacity constraints which indicate that biopharmaceutical manufacturers are doing a better job planning for capacity. The results have been a smoothing of capacity use shifts and an improved ability to forecast capacity and outsourcing needs. Despite these data, today, the instability and financial constraints caused by the current global economic crisis are likely to create unforeseen shifts in our capacity utilization and capacity expansion trends. These shifts will need to be measured in subsequent studies.

Aviation Modeling and Simulation Needs and Requirements Workshop: January 27-28, 1999

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-01-01

A two-day workshop was held at the Volpe Center on January 27-28, 1999. The purpose of the workshop was to: 1) identify and understand the requirements for analytical and planning tool initiatives that will give decision makers insight into the capac...

77 FR 38707 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Request for Comments for a New Information Collection

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-28

... includes, but is not limited to, information to support transportation research, capacity building, data collection, planning, travel modeling, and performance management. This also includes information about how... Information Collection Activities: Request for Comments for a New Information Collection AGENCY: Federal...

On calculation of a steam-water flow in a geothermal well

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shulyupin, A. N.; Chermoshentseva, A. A.

2013-08-01

Approaches to calculation of a steam-water flow in a geothermal well are considered. For hydraulic applications, a WELL-4 model of a steam-water well is developed. Data obtained using this model are compared with experimental data and also with calculations by similar models including the well-known HOLA model. The capacity of the A-2 well in the Mutnovskoe flash-steam field (Kamchatka half-island, Russia) after planned reconstruction is predicted.

Sustainability in Supply Chain Management: Aggregate Planning from Sustainability Perspective.

PubMed

Türkay, Metin; Saraçoğlu, Öztürk; Arslan, Mehmet Can

2016-01-01

Supply chain management that considers the flow of raw materials, products and information has become a focal issue in modern manufacturing and service systems. Supply chain management requires effective use of assets and information that has far reaching implications beyond satisfaction of customer demand, flow of goods, services or capital. Aggregate planning, a fundamental decision model in supply chain management, refers to the determination of production, inventory, capacity and labor usage levels in the medium term. Traditionally standard mathematical programming formulation is used to devise the aggregate plan so as to minimize the total cost of operations. However, this formulation is purely an economic model that does not include sustainability considerations. In this study, we revise the standard aggregate planning formulation to account for additional environmental and social criteria to incorporate triple bottom line consideration of sustainability. We show how these additional criteria can be appended to traditional cost accounting in order to address sustainability in aggregate planning. We analyze the revised models and interpret the results on a case study from real life that would be insightful for decision makers.

Sustainability in Supply Chain Management: Aggregate Planning from Sustainability Perspective

PubMed Central

Türkay, Metin; Saraçoğlu, Öztürk; Arslan, Mehmet Can

2016-01-01

Supply chain management that considers the flow of raw materials, products and information has become a focal issue in modern manufacturing and service systems. Supply chain management requires effective use of assets and information that has far reaching implications beyond satisfaction of customer demand, flow of goods, services or capital. Aggregate planning, a fundamental decision model in supply chain management, refers to the determination of production, inventory, capacity and labor usage levels in the medium term. Traditionally standard mathematical programming formulation is used to devise the aggregate plan so as to minimize the total cost of operations. However, this formulation is purely an economic model that does not include sustainability considerations. In this study, we revise the standard aggregate planning formulation to account for additional environmental and social criteria to incorporate triple bottom line consideration of sustainability. We show how these additional criteria can be appended to traditional cost accounting in order to address sustainability in aggregate planning. We analyze the revised models and interpret the results on a case study from real life that would be insightful for decision makers. PMID:26807848

Progress in improving provincial plans for nutrition through targeted technical assistance and local advocacy in Vietnam

PubMed Central

Harris, Jody; Nguyen, Phuong H.; To, Quyen; Frongillo, Edward A.; Menon, Purnima

2016-01-01

Vietnam has been decentralizing nutrition planning to provinces, which could help with local relevance and accountability. Assessment in 2009 found a continuing top-down approach, limited human capacity, and difficulty in integrating multiple sectors. Alive and Thrive (A&T) provided targeted assistance and capacity-building for 15 provincial plans for nutrition (PPNs). We aimed to (i) assess PPN content and quality improvements 2009–2014, and (ii) explain processes through which change occurred. Data consisted of interview-based assessments of provincial planning processes, annual PPN assessments, and tracking of A&T involvement. At endline, some provinces produced higher quality plans. Local planning skills improved, but capacity remained insufficient. Awareness of and support for nutrition improved, but some policy and legal environments were contradictory. Objectives were clearer, but use of data for planning remained inconsistent. Provinces became more proactive and creative, but remained constrained by slow approval processes and insufficient funding. Targeted assistance and local advocacy can improve decentralized planning, with success dependent on policy and programming contexts and ability to overcome constraints around capacity, investment, data use and remnants of centralized planning. We recommend strong engagement with planners at the national level to understand how to unblock major constraints; solutions must take into consideration the particular political, financial and administrative context. PMID:27198978

Frequency Reuse, Cell Separation, and Capacity Analysis of VHF Digital Link Mode 3 TDMA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shamma, Mohammed A.; Nguyen, Thanh C.; Apaza, Rafael D.

2003-01-01

The most recent studies by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the aviation industry have indicated that it has become increasingly difficult to make new VHF frequency or channel assignments to meet the aviation needs for air-ground communications. FAA has planned for several aggressive improvement measures to the existing systems, but these measures would not meet the projected voice communications needs beyond 2009. FAA found that since 1974 there has been, on the average, a 4 percent annual increase in the number of channel assignments needed to satisfy the air-ground communication traffic (approximately 300 new channel assignments per year). With the planned improvement measures, the channel assignments are expected to reach a maximum number of 16615 channels by about 2010. Hence, the FAA proposed the use of VDL Mode 3 as a new integrated digital voice and data communications systems to meet the future air traffic demand. This paper presents analytical results of frequency reuse; cell separation and capacity estimation of VDL Mode 3 TDMA systems that FAA has planned to implement the future VHF air-ground communications system by the year 2010. For TDMA, it is well understood that the frequency reuse factor is a crucial parameter for capacity estimation. Formulation of this frequency reuse factor is shown, taking into account the limitation imposed by the requirement to have a sufficient Signal to Co-Channel Interference Ratio. Several different values for the Signal to Co-Channel Interference Ratio were utilized corresponding to the current analog VHF DSB-AM systems, and the future digital VDL Mode 3. The required separation of Co-Channel cells is computed for most of the Frequency Protected Service Volumes (FPSV's) currently in use by the FAA. Additionally, the ideal cell capacity for each FPSV is presented. Also, using actual traffic for the Detroit air space, a FPSV traffic distribution model is used to generate a typical cell for channel capacity prediction. Such prediction is useful for evaluating the improvement of future VDL Mode 3 deployment and capacity planning.

Remembering the past and planning for the future in rats

PubMed Central

Crystal, Jonathon D.

2012-01-01

A growing body of research suggests that rats represent and remember specific earlier events from the past. An important criterion for validating a rodent model of episodic memory is to establish that the content of the representation is about a specific event in the past rather than vague information about remoteness. Recent evidence suggests that rats may also represent events that are anticipated to occur in the future. An important capacity afforded by a representation of the future is the ability to plan for the occurrence of a future event. However, relatively little is known about the content of represented future events and the cognitive mechanisms that may support planning. This article reviews evidence that rats remember specific earlier events from the past, represent events that are anticipated to ccur in the future, and develops criteria for validating a rodent model of future planning. These criteria include representing a specific time in the future, the ability to temporarily disengage from a plan and reactivate the plan at an appropriate time in the future, and flexibility to deploy a plan in novel conditions. PMID:23219951

Bucking logs to cable yarder capacity can decrease yarding costs and minimize wood wastage

Treesearch

Chris B. LeDoux

1986-01-01

Data from select time and motions studies and a forest model plot, used in a simulation model, show that logging managers planning felling, bucking, and limbing for a cable yarding operation must consider the effect of alternate bucking rules on wood wastage, yarding production rates and cost, the number of choker to fly and total logging costs. Results emphasize then...

Research Capacity Building: A Historically Black College/University-Based Case Study of a Peer-to-Peer Mentor Research Team Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Corey L.; Manyibe, Edward O.; Aref, Fariborz; Washington, Andre L.

2017-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate a peer-to-peer mentor research team model (PPMRTM) in building investigators' research skills (i.e., research methods and grant writing) at a historically Black college/university (HBCU) in the United States. Method: Three different theories (i.e., planned change, critical mass, and self-efficacy), contemporary study findings,…

Geomorphology applied to landscape analysis for planning and management of natural spaces. Case study: Las Batuecas-S. de Francia and Quilamas natural parks, (Salamanca, Spain).

PubMed

Martínez-Graña, A M; Silva, P G; Goy, J L; Elez, J; Valdés, V; Zazo, C

2017-04-15

Geomorphology is fundamental to landscape analysis, as it represents the main parameter that determines the land spatial configuration and facilitates reliefs classification. The goal of this article is the elaboration of thematic maps that enable the determination of different landscape units and elaboration of quality and vulnerability synthetic maps for landscape fragility assessment prior to planning human activities. For two natural spaces, the final synthetic maps were created with direct (visual-perceptual features) and indirect (cartographic models and 3D simulations) methods from thematic maps with GIS technique. This enabled the creation of intrinsic and extrinsic landscape quality maps showing sectors needing most preservation, as well as intrinsic and extrinsic landscape fragility maps (environment response capacity or vulnerability towards human actions). The resulting map shows absorption capacity for areas of maximum and/or minimum human intervention. Sectors of high absorption capacity (minimum need for preservation) are found where the incidence of human intervention is minimum: escarpment bottoms, fitted rivers, sinuous high lands with thick vegetation coverage and valley interiors, or those areas with high landscape quality, low fragility and high absorption capacity, whose average values are found across lower hillsides of some valleys, and sectors with low absorption capacity (areas needing most preservation) found mainly in the inner parts of natural spaces: peaks and upper hillsides, synclines flanks and scattered areas. For the integral analysis of landscape, a mapping methodology has been set. It comprises a valid criterion for rational and sustainable planning, management and protection of natural spaces. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GIS and Geodatabase Disaster Risk for Spatial Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendriawan Nur, Wawan; Kumoro, Yugo; Susilowati, Yuliana

2018-02-01

The spatial planning in Indonesia needs to consider the information on the potential disaster. That is because disaster is a serious and detrimental problem that often occurs and causes casualties in some areas in Indonesia as well as inhibits the development. Various models and research were developed to calculate disaster risk assessment. GIS is a system for assembling, storing, analyzing, and displaying geographically referenced disaster. The information can be collaborated with geodatabases to model and to estimate disaster risk in an automated way. It also offers the possibility to customize most of the parameters used in the models. This paper describes a framework which can improve GIS and Geodatabase for the vulnerability, capacity or disaster risk assessment to support the spatial planning activities so they can be more adaptable. By using this framework, GIS application can be used in any location by adjusting variables or calculation methods without changing or rebuilding system from scratch.

A Research Agenda for Malaria Eradication: Modeling

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Malaria modeling can inform policy and guide research for malaria elimination and eradication from local implementation to global policy. A research and development agenda for malaria modeling is proposed, to support operations and to enhance the broader eradication research agenda. Models are envisioned as an integral part of research, planning, and evaluation, and modelers should ideally be integrated into multidisciplinary teams to update the models iteratively, communicate their appropriate use, and serve the needs of other research scientists, public health specialists, and government officials. A competitive and collaborative framework will result in policy recommendations from multiple, independently derived models and model systems that share harmonized databases. As planned, modeling results will be produced in five priority areas: (1) strategic planning to determine where and when resources should be optimally allocated to achieve eradication; (2) management plans to minimize the evolution of drug and pesticide resistance; (3) impact assessments of new and needed tools to interrupt transmission; (4) technical feasibility assessments to determine appropriate combinations of tools, an associated set of target intervention coverage levels, and the expected timelines for achieving a set of goals in different socio-ecological settings and different health systems; and (5) operational feasibility assessments to weigh the economic costs, capital investments, and human resource capacities required. PMID:21283605

77 FR 21565 - Statement of Organization, Functions and Delegations of Authority

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-10

... promote early identification of people living with HIV, linking them to care and retaining them in care... Program) including, Planning and Capacity Development programs (Part C), HIV Early Intervention Services... strategies and innovative models for the development and provision of HIV primary care services; (3...

COMPUTER MODEL ANALYSIS FOR MITIGATION PLANNING OF SANITARY-SEWER OVERFLOWS

EPA Science Inventory

Sanitary sewer overflows (SSOs) are generally difficult to witness or document as they usually occur during rain events when people are indoors or out of sight. To anser where and when an SSO may occur, it is necessary to know the flow conveyance capacity at various parts of the ...

78 FR 58309 - Proposed Information Collection Activity; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-23

... initiative, funded by the Children's Bureau (CB) within ACF, will support planning grants to develop a model... for the process evaluation will be used to assess grantees' organizational capacity and readiness to... response burden hours Baseline Telephone Interview of 540 270 1 1.0 270 Organizational Readiness...

The impact of rural hospital closures on equity of commuting time for haemodialysis patients: simulation analysis using the capacity-distance model

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Frequent and long-term commuting is a requirement for dialysis patients. Accessibility thus affects their quality of lives. In this paper, a new model for accessibility measurement is proposed in which both geographic distance and facility capacity are taken into account. Simulation of closure of rural facilities and that of capacity transfer between urban and rural facilities are conducted to evaluate the impacts of these phenomena on equity of accessibility among dialysis patients. Methods Post code information as of August 2011 of all the 7,374 patients certified by municipalities of Hiroshima prefecture as having first or third grade renal disability were collected. Information on post code and the maximum number of outpatients (capacity) of all the 98 dialysis facilities were also collected. Using geographic information systems, patient commuting times were calculated in two models: one that takes into account road distance (distance model), and the other that takes into account both the road distance and facility capacity (capacity-distance model). Simulations of closures of rural and urban facilities were then conducted. Results The median commuting time among rural patients was more than twice as long as that among urban patients (15 versus 7 minutes, p < 0.001). In the capacity-distance model 36.1% of patients commuted to the facilities which were different from the facilities in the distance model, creating a substantial gap of commuting time between the two models. In the simulation, when five rural public facilitiess were closed, Gini coefficient of commuting times among the patients increased by 16%, indicating a substantial worsening of equity, and the number of patients with commuting times longer than 90 minutes increased by 72 times. In contrast, closure of four urban public facilities with similar capacities did not affect these values. Conclusions Closures of dialysis facilities in rural areas have a substantially larger impact on equity of commuting times among dialysis patients than closures of urban facilities. The accessibility simulations using thecapacity-distance model will provide an analytic framework upon which rational resource distribution policies might be planned. PMID:22824294

Study on Battery Capacity for Grid-connection Power Planning with Forecasts in Clustered Photovoltaic Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimada, Takae; Kawasaki, Norihiro; Ueda, Yuzuru; Sugihara, Hiroyuki; Kurokawa, Kosuke

This paper aims to clarify the battery capacity required by a residential area with densely grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) systems. This paper proposes a planning method of tomorrow's grid-connection power from/to the external electric power system by using demand power forecasting and insolation forecasting for PV power predictions, and defines a operation method of the electricity storage device to control the grid-connection power as planned. A residential area consisting of 389 houses consuming 2390 MWh/year of electricity with 2390kW PV systems is simulated based on measured data and actual forecasts. The simulation results show that 8.3MWh of battery capacity is required in the conditions of half-hour planning and 1% or less of planning error ratio and PV output limiting loss ratio. The results also show that existing technologies of forecasting reduce required battery capacity to 49%, and increase the allowable installing PV amount to 210%.

Modeling and Performance Simulation of the Mass Storage Network Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Chan M.; Sang, Janche

2000-01-01

This paper describes the application of modeling and simulation in evaluating and predicting the performance of the mass storage network environment. Network traffic is generated to mimic the realistic pattern of file transfer, electronic mail, and web browsing. The behavior and performance of the mass storage network and a typical client-server Local Area Network (LAN) are investigated by modeling and simulation. Performance characteristics in throughput and delay demonstrate the important role of modeling and simulation in network engineering and capacity planning.

Capturing the Impact of Storage and Other Flexible Technologies on Electric System Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hale, Elaine; Stoll, Brady; Mai, Trieu

Power systems of the future are likely to require additional flexibility. This has been well studied from an operational perspective, but has been more difficult to incorporate into capacity expansion models (CEMs) that study investment decisions on the decadal scale. There are two primary reasons for this. First, the necessary input data, including cost and resource projections, for flexibility options like demand response and storage are significantly uncertain. Second, it is computationally difficult to represent both investment and operational decisions in detail, the latter being necessary to properly value system flexibility, in CEMs for realistically sized systems. In this work,more » we extend a particular CEM, NREL's Resource Planning Model (RPM), to address the latter issue by better representing variable generation impacts on operations, and then adding two flexible technologies to RPM's suite of investment decisions: interruptible load and utility-scale storage. This work does not develop full suites of input data for these technologies, but is rather methodological and exploratory in nature. We thus exercise these new investment decisions in the context of exploring price points and value streams needed for significant deployment in the Western Interconnection by 2030. Our study of interruptible load finds significant variation by location, year, and overall system conditions. Some locations find no system need for interruptible load even with low costs, while others build the most expensive resources offered. System needs can include planning reserve capacity needs to ensure resource adequacy, but there are also particular cases in which spinning reserve requirements drive deployment. Utility-scale storage is found to require deep cost reductions to achieve wide deployment and is found to be more valuable in some locations with greater renewable deployment. Differences between more solar- and wind-reliant regions are also found: Storage technologies with lower energy capacities are deployed to support solar deployment, and higher energy capacity technologies support wind. Finally, we identify potential future research and areas of improvement to build on this initial analysis.« less

Progress in improving provincial plans for nutrition through targeted technical assistance and local advocacy in Vietnam.

PubMed

Harris, Jody; Nguyen, Phuong H; To, Quyen; Frongillo, Edward A; Menon, Purnima

2016-12-01

Vietnam has been decentralizing nutrition planning to provinces, which could help with local relevance and accountability. Assessment in 2009 found a continuing top-down approach, limited human capacity, and difficulty in integrating multiple sectors. Alive and Thrive (A&T) provided targeted assistance and capacity-building for 15 provincial plans for nutrition (PPNs). We aimed to (i) assess PPN content and quality improvements 2009-2014, and (ii) explain processes through which change occurred. Data consisted of interview-based assessments of provincial planning processes, annual PPN assessments, and tracking of A&T involvement. At endline, some provinces produced higher quality plans. Local planning skills improved, but capacity remained insufficient. Awareness of and support for nutrition improved, but some policy and legal environments were contradictory. Objectives were clearer, but use of data for planning remained inconsistent. Provinces became more proactive and creative, but remained constrained by slow approval processes and insufficient funding. Targeted assistance and local advocacy can improve decentralized planning, with success dependent on policy and programming contexts and ability to overcome constraints around capacity, investment, data use and remnants of centralized planning. We recommend strong engagement with planners at the national level to understand how to unblock major constraints; solutions must take into consideration the particular political, financial and administrative context. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishnan, Venkat; Cole, Wesley

Power sector capacity expansion models (CEMs) have a broad range of spatial resolutions. This paper uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a long-term national scale electric sector CEM, to evaluate the value of high spatial resolution for CEMs. ReEDS models the United States with 134 load balancing areas (BAs) and captures the variability in existing generation parameters, future technology costs, performance, and resource availability using very high spatial resolution data, especially for wind and solar modeled at 356 resource regions. In this paper we perform planning studies at three different spatial resolutions--native resolution (134 BAs), state-level, and NERCmore » region level--and evaluate how results change under different levels of spatial aggregation in terms of renewable capacity deployment and location, associated transmission builds, and system costs. The results are used to ascertain the value of high geographically resolved models in terms of their impact on relative competitiveness among renewable energy resources.« less

Water-resources optimization model for Santa Barbara, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nishikawa, Tracy

1998-01-01

A simulation-optimization model has been developed for the optimal management of the city of Santa Barbara's water resources during a drought. The model, which links groundwater simulation with linear programming, has a planning horizon of 5 years. The objective is to minimize the cost of water supply subject to: water demand constraints, hydraulic head constraints to control seawater intrusion, and water capacity constraints. The decision variables are montly water deliveries from surface water and groundwater. The state variables are hydraulic heads. The drought of 1947-51 is the city's worst drought on record, and simulated surface-water supplies for this period were used as a basis for testing optimal management of current water resources under drought conditions. The simulation-optimization model was applied using three reservoir operation rules. In addition, the model's sensitivity to demand, carry over [the storage of water in one year for use in the later year(s)], head constraints, and capacity constraints was tested.

Building capacity for the continuous improvement of health-promoting schools.

PubMed

Hoyle, Tena B; Samek, Beverly B; Valois, Robert F

2008-01-01

There has been much educational verbosity over the past decade related to building capacity for effective schools. However, there seems to be a scarcity of clarification about what is meant by school capacity building or how to accomplish and sustain this process. This article describes the preexisting conditions and ongoing processes in Pueblo, Colorado School District 60 (Pueblo 60) that built capacity for the development and continuous improvement of health-promoting schools. Capacity building strategies and a program-planning model for continuous improvement for health-promoting schools were used that included: (a) visionary/effective leadership and management structures, (b) extensive internal and external supports, (c) development and allocation of adequate resources, (d) supportive policies and procedures, and (e) ongoing, embedded professional development. Pueblo 60 strategically developed an infrastructure through which they successfully delivered a wide array of health programs and services. Through building organizational capacity at the school district and school level, additional school health programming can be developed and sustained.

PLAN2D - A PROGRAM FOR ELASTO-PLASTIC ANALYSIS OF PLANAR FRAMES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawrence, C.

1994-01-01

PLAN2D is a FORTRAN computer program for the plastic analysis of planar rigid frame structures. Given a structure and loading pattern as input, PLAN2D calculates the ultimate load that the structure can sustain before collapse. Element moments and plastic hinge rotations are calculated for the ultimate load. The location of hinges required for a collapse mechanism to form are also determined. The program proceeds in an iterative series of linear elastic analyses. After each iteration the resulting elastic moments in each member are compared to the reserve plastic moment capacity of that member. The member or members that have moments closest to their reserve capacity will determine the minimum load factor and the site where the next hinge is to be inserted. Next, hinges are inserted and the structural stiffness matrix is reformulated. This cycle is repeated until the structure becomes unstable. At this point the ultimate collapse load is calculated by accumulating the minimum load factor from each previous iteration and multiplying them by the original input loads. PLAN2D is based on the program STAN, originally written by Dr. E.L. Wilson at U.C. Berkeley. PLAN2D has several limitations: 1) Although PLAN2D will detect unloading of hinges it does not contain the capability to remove hinges; 2) PLAN2D does not allow the user to input different positive and negative moment capacities and 3) PLAN2D does not consider the interaction between axial and plastic moment capacity. Axial yielding and buckling is ignored as is the reduction in moment capacity due to axial load. PLAN2D is written in FORTRAN and is machine independent. It has been tested on an IBM PC and a DEC MicroVAX. The program was developed in 1988.

Interactive Care Model: A Framework for More Fully Engaging People in Their Healthcare.

PubMed

Drenkard, Karen; Swartwout, Ellen; Deyo, Patricia; O'Neil, Michael B

2015-10-01

Transformation of care delivery requires rethinking the relationship between the person and clinician. The model described provides a process to more fully engage patients in their care. Five encounters include assessing capacity for engagement, exchanging information and choices, planning, determining interventions, and evaluating the effectiveness of engagement interventions. Created by researchers and validated by experts, implications for practice, education, and policy are explored.

SimWIND: A Geospatial Infrastructure Model for Wind Energy Production and Transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Middleton, R. S.; Phillips, B. R.; Bielicki, J. M.

2009-12-01

Wind is a clean, enduring energy resource with a capacity to satisfy 20% or more of the electricity needs in the United States. A chief obstacle to realizing this potential is the general paucity of electrical transmission lines between promising wind resources and primary load centers. Successful exploitation of this resource will therefore require carefully planned enhancements to the electric grid. To this end, we present the model SimWIND for self-consistent optimization of the geospatial arrangement and cost of wind energy production and transmission infrastructure. Given a set of wind farm sites that satisfy meteorological viability and stakeholder interest, our model simultaneously determines where and how much electricity to produce, where to build new transmission infrastructure and with what capacity, and where to use existing infrastructure in order to minimize the cost for delivering a given amount of electricity to key markets. Costs and routing of transmission line construction take into account geographic and social factors, as well as connection and delivery expenses (transformers, substations, etc.). We apply our model to Texas and consider how findings complement the 2008 Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ) Transmission Optimization Study. Results suggest that integrated optimization of wind energy infrastructure and cost using SimWIND could play a critical role in wind energy planning efforts.

Multimodal corridor and capacity analysis manual. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-12-31

This report presents the results of research carried out under NCHRP Project 8-31, Long-Term Availability of Multimodal Corridor Capacity. The report is presented as a manual on multimodal corridor and capacity analysis. Because transportation-system and corridor capacity for freight and passengers is critical for meeting current and future transportation demand, this manual will provide much needed assistance to a wide range of practitioners, particularly those engaged in performance analysis, capacity management, needs studies, systems planning, and corridor development planning--including major investment studies. It provides information regarding capacity analysis approaches for highways, rail, pipelines, and waterways and presents available options formore » enhancing corridor capacity and performance through various strategies such as new capacity development, freeing up unused capacity, or control of travel demand. Evaluation methods for these options are included.« less

Cognitive-Motivational Determinants of Residents’ Civic Engagement and Health (Inequities) in the Context of Noise Action Planning: A Conceptual Model

PubMed Central

Riedel, Natalie; van Kamp, Irene; Köckler, Heike; Scheiner, Joachim; Loerbroks, Adrian; Claßen, Thomas; Bolte, Gabriele

2017-01-01

The Environmental Noise Directive expects residents to be actively involved in localising and selecting noise abatement interventions during the noise action planning process. Its intervention impact is meant to be homogeneous across population groups. Against the background of social heterogeneity and environmental disparities, however, the impact of noise action planning on exposure to traffic-related noise and its health effects is unlikely to follow homogenous distributions. Until now, there has been no study evaluating the impact of noise action measures on the social distribution of traffic-related noise exposure and health outcomes. We develop a conceptual (logic) model on cognitive-motivational determinants of residents’ civic engagement and health (inequities) by integrating arguments from the Model on household’s Vulnerability to the local Environment, the learned helplessness model in environmental psychology, the Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress, and the reserve capacity model. Specifically, we derive four hypothetical patterns of cognitive-motivational determinants yielding different levels of sustained physiological activation and expectancies of civic engagement. These patterns may help us understand why health inequities arise in the context of noise action planning and learn how to transform noise action planning into an instrument conducive to health equity. While building on existing frameworks, our conceptual model will be tested empirically in the next stage of our research process. PMID:28556813

Cognitive-Motivational Determinants of Residents' Civic Engagement and Health (Inequities) in the Context of Noise Action Planning: A Conceptual Model.

PubMed

Riedel, Natalie; van Kamp, Irene; Köckler, Heike; Scheiner, Joachim; Loerbroks, Adrian; Claßen, Thomas; Bolte, Gabriele

2017-05-30

The Environmental Noise Directive expects residents to be actively involved in localising and selecting noise abatement interventions during the noise action planning process. Its intervention impact is meant to be homogeneous across population groups. Against the background of social heterogeneity and environmental disparities, however, the impact of noise action planning on exposure to traffic-related noise and its health effects is unlikely to follow homogenous distributions. Until now, there has been no study evaluating the impact of noise action measures on the social distribution of traffic-related noise exposure and health outcomes. We develop a conceptual (logic) model on cognitive-motivational determinants of residents' civic engagement and health (inequities) by integrating arguments from the Model on household's Vulnerability to the local Environment, the learned helplessness model in environmental psychology, the Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress, and the reserve capacity model. Specifically, we derive four hypothetical patterns of cognitive-motivational determinants yielding different levels of sustained physiological activation and expectancies of civic engagement. These patterns may help us understand why health inequities arise in the context of noise action planning and learn how to transform noise action planning into an instrument conducive to health equity. While building on existing frameworks, our conceptual model will be tested empirically in the next stage of our research process.

Competition in the health system: good news and bad news.

PubMed

Miller, R H

1996-01-01

Competition among health plans, hospitals, and physicians has taken place in fifteen health care markets primarily on the basis of price and secondarily on network breadth and style of care. In most markets, competition resulted in lower (or slowly growing) premium prices. Within a type of plan product, competition was leading to similar prices and networks and was reducing product differentiation among health plans. Competition was not taking place on the basis of measured and reported quality of care, which limited the capacity of employers and enrollees to make informed health plan choices. As a result, there was a substantial gap between competition as envisioned by the architects of the managed competition model and competition as it is evolving today.

A Model To Estimate Carbon Dioxide Injectivity and Storage Capacity for Geological Sequestration in Shale Gas Wells.

PubMed

Edwards, Ryan W J; Celia, Michael A; Bandilla, Karl W; Doster, Florian; Kanno, Cynthia M

2015-08-04

Recent studies suggest the possibility of CO2 sequestration in depleted shale gas formations, motivated by large storage capacity estimates in these formations. Questions remain regarding the dynamic response and practicality of injection of large amounts of CO2 into shale gas wells. A two-component (CO2 and CH4) model of gas flow in a shale gas formation including adsorption effects provides the basis to investigate the dynamics of CO2 injection. History-matching of gas production data allows for formation parameter estimation. Application to three shale gas-producing regions shows that CO2 can only be injected at low rates into individual wells and that individual well capacity is relatively small, despite significant capacity variation between shale plays. The estimated total capacity of an average Marcellus Shale well in Pennsylvania is 0.5 million metric tonnes (Mt) of CO2, compared with 0.15 Mt in an average Barnett Shale well. Applying the individual well estimates to the total number of existing and permitted planned wells (as of March, 2015) in each play yields a current estimated capacity of 7200-9600 Mt in the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania and 2100-3100 Mt in the Barnett Shale.

NCDOT level of service software program for highway capacity manual planning applications.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-08-01

The Transportation Planning Branch (TPB) of the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) desired a : user-friendly tool for determining highway capacity and service volumes for freeways, multilane highways, arterials, and : two-lane highwa...

Forecast and capacity planning for Nogales' ports of entry : [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-12-01

This document provides the final report of the activities performed under the project : Nogales POEs Traffic Study: Forecast and Capacity Planning for Nogales Ports of Entry : sponsored by the Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) under Gran...

Disaster metrics: quantitative benchmarking of hospital surge capacity in trauma-related multiple casualty events.

PubMed

Bayram, Jamil D; Zuabi, Shawki; Subbarao, Italo

2011-06-01

Hospital surge capacity in multiple casualty events (MCE) is the core of hospital medical response, and an integral part of the total medical capacity of the community affected. To date, however, there has been no consensus regarding the definition or quantification of hospital surge capacity. The first objective of this study was to quantitatively benchmark the various components of hospital surge capacity pertaining to the care of critically and moderately injured patients in trauma-related MCE. The second objective was to illustrate the applications of those quantitative parameters in local, regional, national, and international disaster planning; in the distribution of patients to various hospitals by prehospital medical services; and in the decision-making process for ambulance diversion. A 2-step approach was adopted in the methodology of this study. First, an extensive literature search was performed, followed by mathematical modeling. Quantitative studies on hospital surge capacity for trauma injuries were used as the framework for our model. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization triage categories (T1-T4) were used in the modeling process for simplicity purposes. Hospital Acute Care Surge Capacity (HACSC) was defined as the maximum number of critical (T1) and moderate (T2) casualties a hospital can adequately care for per hour, after recruiting all possible additional medical assets. HACSC was modeled to be equal to the number of emergency department beds (#EDB), divided by the emergency department time (EDT); HACSC = #EDB/EDT. In trauma-related MCE, the EDT was quantitatively benchmarked to be 2.5 (hours). Because most of the critical and moderate casualties arrive at hospitals within a 6-hour period requiring admission (by definition), the hospital bed surge capacity must match the HACSC at 6 hours to ensure coordinated care, and it was mathematically benchmarked to be 18% of the staffed hospital bed capacity. Defining and quantitatively benchmarking the different components of hospital surge capacity is vital to hospital preparedness in MCE. Prospective studies of our mathematical model are needed to verify its applicability, generalizability, and validity.

Developing Pre-Service Teachers' Capacity in Teaching Science with Technology through Microteaching Lesson Study Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhou, George; Xu, Judy; Martinovic, Dragana

2017-01-01

In order to effectively use technology in teaching, teacher candidates need to develop technology related pedagogical content knowledge through being engaged in a process of discussion, modeling, practice, and reflection. Based on the examination of teacher candidates' lesson plan assignments, observations of their microteaching performance, and…

Revised Planning Methodology For Signalized Intersections And Operational Analysis Of Exclusive Left-Turn Lanes, A Simulation-Based Method, Part - I: Literature Review (Final Report)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-04-01

THE STUDY INVESTIGATES THE APPLICATION OF SIMULATION ALONG WITH FIELD OBSERVATIONS FOR ESTIMATION OF EXCLUSIVE LEFT-TURN SATURATION FLOW RATE AND CAPACITY. THE ENTIRE RESEARCH HAS COVERED THE FOLLOWING PRINCIPAL SUBJECTS: (1) A SATURATION FLOW MODEL ...

Network Design: Best Practices for Alberta School Jurisdictions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schienbein, Ralph

This report examines subsections of the computer network topology that relate to end-to-end performance and capacity planning in schools. Active star topology, Category 5 wiring, Ethernet, and intelligent devices are assumed. The report describes a model that can be used to project WAN (wide area network) connection speeds based on user traffic,…

A multi-period capacitated school location problem with modular equipment and closest assignment considerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delmelle, Eric M.; Thill, Jean-Claude; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle

2014-07-01

In rapidly growing urban areas, it is deemed vital to expand (or contract) an existing network of public facilities to meet anticipated changes in the level of demand. We present a multi-period capacitated median model for school network facility location planning that minimizes transportation costs, while functional costs are subject to a budget constraint. The proposed Vintage Flexible Capacitated Location Problem (ViFCLP) has the flexibility to account for a minimum school-age closing requirement, while the maximum capacity of each school can be adjusted by the addition of modular units. Non-closest assignments are controlled by the introduction of a parameter penalizing excess travel. The applicability of the ViFCLP is illustrated on a large US school system (Charlotte-Mecklenburg, North Carolina) where high school demand is expected to grow faster with distance to the city center. Higher school capacities and greater penalty on travel impedance parameter reduce the number of non-closest assignments. The proposed model is beneficial to policy makers seeking to improve the provision and efficiency of public services over a multi-period planning horizon.

Low flows and water temperature risks to Asian coal power plants in a warming world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Byers, E.; Parkinson, S.; Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.; Bielicki, J. M.

2017-12-01

Thermoelectric power generation requires cooling, normally provided by wet cooling systems. The withdrawal and discharge of cooling water are subject to regulation. Therefore, operation of power plants may be vulnerable to changes in streamflow and rises in water temperatures. In Asia, about 489 GW of coal-fired power plants are currently under construction, permitted, or announced. Using a comprehensive dataset of these planned coal power plants (PCPPs) and cooling water use models, we investigated whether electricity generation at these power plants will be limited by streamflow and water temperature. Daily streamflow and water temperature time series are from the high-resolution (0.08ox0.08o) runs of the PCRGLOBWB hydrological model, driven by downscaled meteorological forcing from five global climate models. We compared three climate change scenarios (1.5oC, 2oC, and 3oC warming in global mean temperature) and three cooling system choice scenarios (freshwater once-through, freshwater cooling tower, and "business-as-usual" - where a PCPP uses the same cooling system as the nearest existing coal power plant). The potential available capacity of the PCPPs increase slightly from the 1.5oC to the 2oC and 3oC warming scenario due to increase in streamflow. The once-through cooling scenario results in virtually zero available capacity at the PCPPs. The other two cooling scenarios result in about 20% of the planned capacity being unavailable under all warming scenarios. Hotspots of the most water-limited PCPPs are in Pakistan, northwestern India, northwestern and north-central China, and northern Vietnam, where most of the PCPPs will face 30% to 90% unavailable nameplate capacity on annual average. Since coal power plants cannot operate effectively when the capacity factor falls below a minimum load level (about 20% to 50%), the actual limitation on generation capacity would be larger. In general, the PCPPs that will have the highest limitation on annual average capacity will also have the most frequent and longest periods of interrupted operation. These results suggest that to ensure security of energy supply and avoid over-withdrawing water resources, the water-limited PCPPs should implement adaptation measures such as dry-cooling, combined heat- and power, or using recycled wastewater.

40 CFR 62.15030 - What are my obligations under this subpart if I reduce my small municipal waste combustion unit's...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) APPROVAL AND PROMULGATION OF STATE PLANS FOR DESIGNATED FACILITIES AND... submit a final control plan according to the schedule in table 1 of this subpart and comply with § 62...) Calculations of the current maximum combustion capacity and the planned maximum combustion capacity after the...

Intelligent transportation systems Professional Capacity Building Program : planning and deploying ITS : six white papers describing current and planned programs of five transportation associations and four university ITS Research Centers of Excellence

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-12-01

In the fall of 1997, the ITS Professional Capacity Building Program initiated the development of six White Papers to briefly describe the current status of, and plans for future education and training activities of six organizations engaged in ...

40 CFR 60.1560 - Can an affected municipal waste combustion unit reduce its capacity to less than 35 tons per day...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... combustion unit reduce its capacity to less than 35 tons per day rather than comply with my State plan? 60... Small Municipal Waste Combustion Units Constructed on or Before August 30, 1999 Applicability of State Plans § 60.1560 Can an affected municipal waste combustion unit reduce its capacity to less than 35 tons...

40 CFR 60.1560 - Can an affected municipal waste combustion unit reduce its capacity to less than 35 tons per day...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... combustion unit reduce its capacity to less than 35 tons per day rather than comply with my State plan? 60... Small Municipal Waste Combustion Units Constructed on or Before August 30, 1999 Applicability of State Plans § 60.1560 Can an affected municipal waste combustion unit reduce its capacity to less than 35 tons...

40 CFR 60.1560 - Can an affected municipal waste combustion unit reduce its capacity to less than 35 tons per day...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... combustion unit reduce its capacity to less than 35 tons per day rather than comply with my State plan? 60... Small Municipal Waste Combustion Units Constructed on or Before August 30, 1999 Applicability of State Plans § 60.1560 Can an affected municipal waste combustion unit reduce its capacity to less than 35 tons...

40 CFR 60.1560 - Can an affected municipal waste combustion unit reduce its capacity to less than 35 tons per day...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... combustion unit reduce its capacity to less than 35 tons per day rather than comply with my State plan? 60... Small Municipal Waste Combustion Units Constructed on or Before August 30, 1999 Applicability of State Plans § 60.1560 Can an affected municipal waste combustion unit reduce its capacity to less than 35 tons...

40 CFR 60.1560 - Can an affected municipal waste combustion unit reduce its capacity to less than 35 tons per day...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... combustion unit reduce its capacity to less than 35 tons per day rather than comply with my State plan? 60... Small Municipal Waste Combustion Units Constructed on or Before August 30, 1999 Applicability of State Plans § 60.1560 Can an affected municipal waste combustion unit reduce its capacity to less than 35 tons...

Integrated Traffic Flow Management Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grabbe, Shon R.; Sridhar, Banavar; Mukherjee, Avijit

2009-01-01

A generalized approach is proposed to support integrated traffic flow management decision making studies at both the U.S. national and regional levels. It can consider tradeoffs between alternative optimization and heuristic based models, strategic versus tactical flight controls, and system versus fleet preferences. Preliminary testing was accomplished by implementing thirteen unique traffic flow management models, which included all of the key components of the system and conducting 85, six-hour fast-time simulation experiments. These experiments considered variations in the strategic planning look-ahead times, the replanning intervals, and the types of traffic flow management control strategies. Initial testing indicates that longer strategic planning look-ahead times and re-planning intervals result in steadily decreasing levels of sector congestion for a fixed delay level. This applies when accurate estimates of the air traffic demand, airport capacities and airspace capacities are available. In general, the distribution of the delays amongst the users was found to be most equitable when scheduling flights using a heuristic scheduling algorithm, such as ration-by-distance. On the other hand, equity was the worst when using scheduling algorithms that took into account the number of seats aboard each flight. Though the scheduling algorithms were effective at alleviating sector congestion, the tactical rerouting algorithm was the primary control for avoiding en route weather hazards. Finally, the modeled levels of sector congestion, the number of weather incursions, and the total system delays, were found to be in fair agreement with the values that were operationally observed on both good and bad weather days.

Scenario analysis of carbon emissions' anti-driving effect on Qingdao's energy structure adjustment with an optimization model, Part II: Energy system planning and management.

PubMed

Wu, C B; Huang, G H; Liu, Z P; Zhen, J L; Yin, J G

2017-03-01

In this study, an inexact multistage stochastic mixed-integer programming (IMSMP) method was developed for supporting regional-scale energy system planning (EPS) associated with multiple uncertainties presented as discrete intervals, probability distributions and their combinations. An IMSMP-based energy system planning (IMSMP-ESP) model was formulated for Qingdao to demonstrate its applicability. Solutions which can provide optimal patterns of energy resources generation, conversion, transmission, allocation and facility capacity expansion schemes have been obtained. The results can help local decision makers generate cost-effective energy system management schemes and gain a comprehensive tradeoff between economic objectives and environmental requirements. Moreover, taking the CO 2 emissions scenarios mentioned in Part I into consideration, the anti-driving effect of carbon emissions on energy structure adjustment was studied based on the developed model and scenario analysis. Several suggestions can be concluded from the results: (a) to ensure the smooth realization of low-carbon and sustainable development, appropriate price control and fiscal subsidy on high-cost energy resources should be considered by the decision-makers; (b) compared with coal, natural gas utilization should be strongly encouraged in order to insure that Qingdao could reach the carbon discharges peak value in 2020; (c) to guarantee Qingdao's power supply security in the future, the construction of new power plants should be emphasised instead of enhancing the transmission capacity of grid infrastructure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Carrying Capacity : Measure 7.1A of the Northwest Power Planning Council`s 1994 Fish and Wildlife Program : Report 1 of 4, Final Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neitzel, Duane A.; Johnson, Gary E.

This report is one of four that the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) staff prepared to address Measure 7.1A in the Northwest Power Planning Council's (Council) Fish and Wildlife Program (Program) dated december 1994 (NPPC 1994). Measure 7.1A calls for the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) to fund an evaluation of salmon survival, ecology, carrying capacity, and limiting factors in freshwater, estuarine, and marine habitats. Additionally, the Measure asks for development of a study plan based on critical uncertainties and research needs identified during the evaluation. This report deals with the evaluation of carrying capacity. It describes the analysis of differentmore » views of capacity as it relates to salmon survival and abundance. The report ends with conclusions and recommendations for studying carrying capacity.« less

48 CFR 5108.070 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... capacity for a negotiated length of time, to conduct subcontractor planning, and to produce specified... capacity for a negotiated length of time, to conduct subcontractor planning, and to produce specified... Section 5108.070 Federal Acquisition Regulations System DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY ACQUISITION REGULATIONS...

Radiobiological concepts for treatment planning of schemes that combines external beam radiotherapy and systemic targeted radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fabián Calderón Marín, Carlos; González González, Joaquín Jorge; Laguardia, Rodolfo Alfonso

2017-09-01

The combination of radiotherapy modalities with external bundles and systemic radiotherapy (CIERT) could be a reliable alternative for patients with multiple lesions or those where treatment planning maybe difficult because organ(s)-at-risk (OARs) constraints. Radiobiological models should have the capacity for predicting the biological irradiation response considering the differences in the temporal pattern of dose delivering in both modalities. Two CIERT scenarios were studied: sequential combination in which one modality is executed following the other one and concurrent combination when both modalities are running simultaneously. Expressions are provided for calculation of the dose-response magnitudes Tumor Control Probability (TCP) and Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP). General results on radiobiological modeling using the linear-quadratic (LQ) model are also discussed. Inter-subject variation of radiosensitivity and volume irradiation effect in CIERT are studied. OARs should be under control during the planning in concurrent CIERT treatment as the administered activity is increased. The formulation presented here may be used for biological evaluation of prescriptions and biological treatment planning of CIERT schemes in clinical situation.

Work plan for the Sangamon River basin, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stamer, J.K.; Mades, Dean M.

1983-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Division of Water Resources of the Illinois Department of Transportation and other State agencies, recognizes the need for basin-type assessments in Illinois. This report describes a plan of study for a water-resource assessment of the Sangamon River basin in central Illinois. The purpose of the study would be to provide information to basin planners and regulators on the quantity, quality, and use of water to guide management decisions regarding basin development. Water quality and quantity problems in the Sangamon River basin are associated primarily with agricultural and urban activities, which have contributed high concentrations of suspended sediment, nitrogen, phosphorus, and organic matter to the streams. The impact has resulted in eutrophic lakes, diminished capacity of lakes to store water, low concentrations of dissolved oxygen, and turbid stream and lake waters. The four elements of the plan of study include: (1) determining suspended sediment and nutrient transport, (2) determining the distribution of selected inorganic and organic residues in streambed sediments, (3) determining the waste-load assimilative capacity of the Sangamon River, and (4) applying a hydraulic model to high streamflows. (USGS)

Using Action Planning to Build Organizational Capacity for the Prevention of Intimate Partner Violence.

PubMed

Schober, Daniel J; Fawcett, Stephen B

2015-08-01

The DELTA PREP Project aims to reduce risk for intimate partner violence (IPV). It engaged leadership and staff from 19 statewide domestic violence coalitions in building capacity to prevent IPV before it occurs (rather than solely responding to IPV). This article describes the process and outcomes associated with action planning to create coalition organizational change related to preventing IPV. Coalition staff and leadership planned for organizational changes in six goal areas: leadership, structures and processes, staffing, resource development, partnership development, and member agency development. Action planning was conducted during 2-day, in-person sessions that involved (a) review and refinement of coalition vision and mission statements, (b) interpretation of coalition assessments (for prevention capacity), (c) identification of specific organizational changes to be sought, and (d) specification of action steps for each proposed organizational change to be sought. The results show overall increases in the amounts, and variations in the kinds, of organizational changes that were facilitated by coalitions. Challenges related to action planning and future directions for capacity building among statewide IPV prevention coalitions are discussed. © 2015 Society for Public Health Education.

Surge capacity logistics: care of the critically ill and injured during pandemics and disasters: CHEST consensus statement.

PubMed

Einav, Sharon; Hick, John L; Hanfling, Dan; Erstad, Brian L; Toner, Eric S; Branson, Richard D; Kanter, Robert K; Kissoon, Niranjan; Dichter, Jeffrey R; Devereaux, Asha V; Christian, Michael D

2014-10-01

Successful management of a pandemic or disaster requires implementation of preexisting plans to minimize loss of life and maintain control. Managing the expected surges in intensive care capacity requires strategic planning from a systems perspective and includes focused intensive care abilities and requirements as well as all individuals and organizations involved in hospital and regional planning. The suggestions in this article are important for all involved in a large-scale disaster or pandemic, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials. Specifically, this article focuses on surge logistics-those elements that provide the capability to deliver mass critical care. The Surge Capacity topic panel developed 23 key questions focused on the following domains: systems issues; equipment, supplies, and pharmaceuticals; staffing; and informatics. Literature searches were conducted to identify studies upon which evidence-based recommendations could be made. The results were reviewed for relevance to the topic, and the articles were screened by two topic editors for placement within one of the surge domains noted previously. Most reports were small scale, were observational, or used flawed modeling; hence, the level of evidence on which to base recommendations was poor and did not permit the development of evidence-based recommendations. The Surge Capacity topic panel subsequently followed the American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) Guidelines Oversight Committee's methodology to develop suggestion based on expert opinion using a modified Delphi process. This article presents 22 suggestions pertaining to surge capacity mass critical care, including requirements for equipment, supplies, and pharmaceuticals; staff preparation and organization; methods of mitigating overwhelming patient loads; the role of deployable critical care services; and the use of transportation assets to support the surge response. Critical care response to a disaster relies on careful planning for staff and resource augmentation and involves many agencies. Maximizing the use of regional resources, including staff, equipment, and supplies, extends critical care capabilities. Regional coalitions should be established to facilitate agreements, outline operational plans, and coordinate hospital efforts to achieve predetermined goals. Specialized physician oversight is necessary and if not available on site, may be provided through remote consultation. Triage by experienced providers, reverse triage, and service deescalation may be used to minimize ICU resource consumption. During a temporary loss of infrastructure or overwhelmed hospital resources, deployable critical care services should be considered.

Improving community mental health services for people affected by political violence in Ayacucho, Perú.

PubMed

Rivera-Holguin, Miryam; Velazquez, Tesania; Custodio, Elba; Corveleyn, Jozef

2018-01-01

This study describes a model to intervene in communities affected by the political violence impacting the Ayacucho region of Peru since 1980s. Many community members still experience psychosocial consequences to this day due primarily to grief. Thirty-eight professionals from different sectors in the area received specialized training and implemented five community projects that were accompanied and monitored in the field by a team of community psychologists. This article is grounded on the principles of participation, building community capacity, and community strengthening. We present the analysis of five community action plans implemented over a period of 14 months. The results show a process of internal strengthening of community services and the identification of new social and community resources among the people involved in the action plans. The implications of capacity building for improving community mental health are discussed.

Designing a mathematical model for integrating dynamic cellular manufacturing into supply chain system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalaei, Amin; Davoudpour, Hamid

2012-11-01

This article presents designing a new mathematical model for integrating dynamic cellular manufacturing into supply chain system with an extensive coverage of important manufacturing features consideration of multiple plants location, multi-markets allocation, multi-period planning horizons with demand and part mix variation, machine capacity, and the main constraints are demand of markets satisfaction in each period, machine availability, machine time-capacity, worker assignment, available time of worker, production volume for each plant and the amounts allocated to each market. The aim of the proposed model is to minimize holding and outsourcing costs, inter-cell material handling cost, external transportation cost, procurement & maintenance and overhead cost of machines, setup cost, reconfiguration cost of machines installation and removal, hiring, firing and salary worker costs. Aimed to prove the potential benefits of such a design, presented an example is shown using a proposed model.

A model for upscaling global partnerships and building nurse and midwifery capacity.

PubMed

Spies, L A; Garner, S L; Faucher, M A; Hastings-Tolsma, M; Riley, C; Millenbruch, J; Prater, L; Conroy, S F

2017-09-01

To provide a unique model for use in guiding global collaboration and policy to upscale nursing and midwifery partnerships. Nurses and midwives across nations need skills reaching beyond the bedside and unit level in today's complex, global, multifaceted healthcare milieu. Thoughtful consideration, research and concomitant development of models to guide appropriate upscaling of nurse and midwifery capacity within and between nations are needed. This article explores an integrated global approach to upscaling nurse and midwifery capacity using examples of partnerships between nursing and midwifery programmes across multiple continents. Global nurse and midwifery capacity is effectively being developed using a myriad of approaches. A new model is presented to illustrate supports, strategies and activities to achieve intermediate and long-term goals for capacity building through strong and sustainable global partnerships. Development of global skills can focus the nurse and midwife to influence policy-level decisions. Human resource planning that can impact countrywide provision of health care begins in the preservice setting for both nurses and midwives. A global experience can be a value-added component to the well-rounded education of future nurses. Education during preparation for entry into practice is a strategic way to develop a worldview. Incorporating reflective practice can build skills and shape attitudes to prepare the new nurse to be comfortable as a global healthcare provider. An expanded world view is the springboard to more robust and informed involvement and inclusion in policy-level discussions. © 2017 International Council of Nurses.

A Method for Suppressing Line Overload Phenomena Using NAS Battery Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohtaka, Toshiya; Iwamoto, Shinichi

In this paper, we pay attention to the superior operating control function and instantaneous discharging characteristics of NAS battery systems, and propose a method for determining installation planning and operating control schemes of NAS battery systems for suppressing line overload phenomena. In the stage of planning, a target contingency is identified, and an optimal allocation and capacity of NAS battery systems and an amount of generation changes are determined for the contingency. In the stage of operation, the control strategy of NAS battery system is determined. Simulations are carried out for verifying the validity of the proposed method using the IEEJ 1 machine V system model and an example 2 machine 16 bus system model.

Modeling Weather Impact on Ground Delay Programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yao; Kulkarni, Deepak

2011-01-01

Scheduled arriving aircraft demand may exceed airport arrival capacity when there is abnormal weather at an airport. In such situations, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) institutes ground-delay programs (GDP) to delay flights before they depart from their originating airports. Efficient GDP planning depends on the accuracy of prediction of airport capacity and demand in the presence of uncertainties in weather forecast. This paper presents a study of the impact of dynamic airport surface weather on GDPs. Using the National Traffic Management Log, effect of weather conditions on the characteristics of GDP events at selected busy airports is investigated. Two machine learning methods are used to generate models that map the airport operational conditions and weather information to issued GDP parameters and results of validation tests are described.

[GIS and scenario analysis aid to water pollution control planning of river basin].

PubMed

Wang, Shao-ping; Cheng, Sheng-tong; Jia, Hai-feng; Ou, Zhi-dan; Tan, Bin

2004-07-01

The forward and backward algorithms for watershed water pollution control planning were summarized in this paper as well as their advantages and shortages. The spatial databases of water environmental function region, pollution sources, monitoring sections and sewer outlets were built with ARCGIS8.1 as the platform in the case study of Ganjiang valley, Jiangxi province. Based on the principles of the forward algorithm, four scenarios were designed for the watershed pollution control. Under these scenarios, ten sets of planning schemes were generated to implement cascade pollution source control. The investment costs of sewage treatment for these schemes were estimated by means of a series of cost-effective functions; with pollution source prediction, the water quality was modeled with CSTR model for each planning scheme. The modeled results of different planning schemes were visualized through GIS to aid decision-making. With the results of investment cost and water quality attainment as decision-making accords and based on the analysis of the economic endurable capacity for water pollution control in Ganjiang river basin, two optimized schemes were proposed. The research shows that GIS technology and scenario analysis can provide a good guidance to the synthesis, integrity and sustainability aspects for river basin water quality planning.

Demand Activated Manufacturing Architecture (DAMA) model for supply chain collaboration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CHAPMAN,LEON D.; PETERSEN,MARJORIE B.

The Demand Activated Manufacturing Architecture (DAMA) project during the last five years of work with the U.S. Integrated Textile Complex (retail, apparel, textile, and fiber sectors) has developed an inter-enterprise architecture and collaborative model for supply chains. This model will enable improved collaborative business across any supply chain. The DAMA Model for Supply Chain Collaboration is a high-level model for collaboration to achieve Demand Activated Manufacturing. The five major elements of the architecture to support collaboration are (1) activity or process, (2) information, (3) application, (4) data, and (5) infrastructure. These five elements are tied to the application of themore » DAMA architecture to three phases of collaboration - prepare, pilot, and scale. There are six collaborative activities that may be employed in this model: (1) Develop Business Planning Agreements, (2) Define Products, (3) Forecast and Plan Capacity Commitments, (4) Schedule Product and Product Delivery, (5) Expedite Production and Delivery Exceptions, and (6) Populate Supply Chain Utility. The Supply Chain Utility is a set of applications implemented to support collaborative product definition, forecast visibility, planning, scheduling, and execution. The DAMA architecture and model will be presented along with the process for implementing this DAMA model.« less

Long-term safety assessment of trench-type surface repository at Chernobyl, Ukraine - computer model and comparison with results from simplified models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haverkamp, B.; Krone, J.; Shybetskyi, I.

2013-07-01

The Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility (RWDF) Buryakovka was constructed in 1986 as part of the intervention measures after the accident at Chernobyl NPP (ChNPP). Today, the surface repository for solid low and intermediate level waste (LILW) is still being operated but its maximum capacity is nearly reached. Long-existing plans for increasing the capacity of the facility shall be implemented in the framework of the European Commission INSC Programme (Instrument for Nuclear Safety Co-operation). Within the first phase of this project, DBE Technology GmbH prepared a safety analysis report of the facility in its current state (SAR) and a preliminary safetymore » analysis report (PSAR) for a future extended facility based on the planned enlargement. In addition to a detailed mathematical model, also simplified models have been developed to verify results of the former one and enhance confidence in the results. Comparison of the results show that - depending on the boundary conditions - simplifications like modeling the multi trench repository as one generic trench might have very limited influence on the overall results compared to the general uncertainties associated with respective long-term calculations. In addition to their value in regard to verification of more complex models which is important to increase confidence in the overall results, such simplified models can also offer the possibility to carry out time consuming calculations like probabilistic calculations or detailed sensitivity analysis in an economic manner. (authors)« less

Surge capacity principles: care of the critically ill and injured during pandemics and disasters: CHEST consensus statement.

PubMed

Hick, John L; Einav, Sharon; Hanfling, Dan; Kissoon, Niranjan; Dichter, Jeffrey R; Devereaux, Asha V; Christian, Michael D

2014-10-01

This article provides consensus suggestions for expanding critical care surge capacity and extension of critical care service capabilities in disasters or pandemics. It focuses on the principles and frameworks for expansion of intensive care services in hospitals in the developed world. A companion article addresses surge logistics, those elements that provide the capability to deliver mass critical care in disaster events. The suggestions in this article are important for all who are involved in large-scale disasters or pandemics with injured or critically ill multiple patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials. The Surge Capacity topic panel developed 23 key questions focused on the following domains: systems issues; equipment, supplies, and pharmaceuticals; staffing; and informatics. Literature searches were conducted to identify evidence on which to base key suggestions. Most reports were small scale, were observational, or used flawed modeling; hence, the level of evidence on which to base recommendations was poor and did not permit the development of evidence-based recommendations. Therefore, the panel developed expert opinion-based suggestions using a modified Delphi process. Suggestions from the previous task force were also included for validation by the expert panel. This article presents 10 suggestions pertaining to the principles that should guide surge capacity and capability planning for mass critical care, including the role of critical care in disaster planning; the surge continuum; targets of surge response; situational awareness and information sharing; mitigating the impact on critical care; planning for the care of special populations; and service deescalation/cessation (also considered as engineered failure). Future reports on critical care surge should emphasize population-based outcomes as well as logistical details. Planning should be based on the projected number of critically ill or injured patients resulting from specific scenarios. This should include a consideration of ICU patient care requirements over time and must factor in resource constraints that may limit the ability to provide care. Standard ICU management forms and patient data forms to assess ICU surge capacity impacts should be created and used in disaster events.

Planning for partnerships: Maximizing surge capacity resources through service learning.

PubMed

Adams, Lavonne M; Reams, Paula K; Canclini, Sharon B

2015-01-01

Infectious disease outbreaks and natural or human-caused disasters can strain the community's surge capacity through sudden demand on healthcare activities. Collaborative partnerships between communities and schools of nursing have the potential to maximize resource availability to meet community needs following a disaster. This article explores how communities can work with schools of nursing to enhance surge capacity through systems thinking, integrated planning, and cooperative efforts.

Health planning as context-dependent language play.

PubMed

Degeling, P

1996-01-01

The concept of planning as context-dependent language play is proposed as a heuristic device to overcome shortcomings which are traced to the planner centered, means-end and prescriptive orientations of much of the existing literature on health planning. The model proposed suggests that planning should be analysed not simply in terms of the capacities and/or responsibilities that it claims to assign to planners, but also in the way that different planning discourses are mobilized, for strategic effect, by a range of other players in front-stage and back-stage settings. Within this conception, a planning exercise comes to be seen as an episode in dramas which have been running for extended periods of time. What distinguishes planning episodes from others in these dramas, is not simply the entry of players designated as planners, but also the discourses that both planners and other players mobilize as they attempt to structure and contest their relationships with one another. The implications of what this conception of planning holds for future research are then discussed.

Implications of the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster: Man-Made Hazards, Vulnerability Factors, and Risk to Environmental Health.

PubMed

Eddy, Christopher; Sase, Eriko

2015-01-01

The objective of this article was to examine the environmental health implications of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster from an all-hazards perspective. The authors performed a literature review that included Japanese and international nuclear guidance and policy, scientific papers, and reports on the Chernobyl and Three Mile Island disasters while also considering all-hazards preparedness rubrics in the U.S. The examination of the literature resulted in the following: a) the authors' "All-Hazards Planning Reference Model" that distinguishes three planning categories-Disaster Trigger Event, Man-Made Hazards, and Vulnerability Factors; b) the generalization of their model to other countries; and c) advocacy for environmental health end fate to be considered in planning phases to minimize risk to environmental health. This article discusses inconsistencies in disaster planning and nomenclature existing in the studied materials and international guidance and proposes new opportunity for developing predisaster risk assessment, risk communication, and prevention capacity building.

78 FR 65632 - Centralized Capacity Markets in Regional Transmission Organizations and Independent System...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-01

... capacity product, as under current market designs, are there certain fundamental performance standards that... necessary for capacity investment? PJM offers LSEs the alternative to opt out of its capacity auction by... transmission may substitute for capacity resources. How can investment in capacity and transmission planning be...

Using community-based evidence for decentralized health planning: insights from Maharashtra, India.

PubMed

Shukla, Abhay; Khanna, Renu; Jadhav, Nitin

2018-01-01

Health planning is generally considered a technical subject, primarily the domain of health officials with minimal involvement of community representatives. The National Rural Health Mission launched in India in 2005 recognized this gap and mandated mechanisms for decentralized health planning. However, since planning develops in the context of highly unequal power relations, formal spaces for participation are necessary but not sufficient. Hence a project on capacity building for decentralized health planning was implemented in selected districts of Maharashtra, India during 2010-13. This process developed on the platform of officially supported community-based monitoring and planning, a process for community feedback and participation towards health system change. A specific project on capacity building for decentralized planning included a structured learning course and workshops for major stakeholders. An evaluation of the project, including in-depth interviews of various participants and analysis of change in local health planning processes, revealed positive changes in intervention areas, including increased capacity of key stakeholders leading to preparation of evidence-based, innovative planning proposals, significant community oriented changes in utilization of health facility funds, and inclusion of community-based proposals in village, health facility-based block and district plans. Transparency related to planning increased along with responsiveness of health providers to community suggestions. A key lesson is that active facilitation of decentralized health planning and influencing the health system to expand participation, are essential to ensure changes in planning. Effective strategies included: identifying people's health service related priorities through community-based monitoring, capacity building of diverse stakeholders regarding local health planning, and advocacy to enable participation of community-based actors in the planning process. This combination of strategies draws upon the framework of 'empowered participatory governance' which necessitates combining a degree of 'countervailing power' and acceptance of participation by the system, for new forms of governance to emerge. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2014; all rights reserved.

[Plansalud: Decentralized and agreed sector plan for the capacity development in health, Peru 2010-2014].

PubMed

Huamán-Angulo, Lizardo; Liendo-Lucano, Lindaura; Nuñez-Vergara, Manuel

2011-06-01

Human resources are the backbone of health sector actions; however, they are not necessarily the area with the greatest attention, therefore, the Ministry of Health of Peru (MINSA) together with regional governments, led the Decentralized and Agreed Sector Plan for the Capacity Development in Health 2010-2014 (PLANSALUD) with the aim of strengthening the capacities of Human Resources for Health (HRH) and contribute to health care efficient development, quality, relevance, equity and multiculturalism, in the context of descentralization, the Universal Health Insurance (AUS) and health policies. To achieve this goal, they have proposed three components (technical assistance, joint training and education - health articulation) that bring together an important set of interventions, which are planned and defined according to the national, regional and local levels, thus contributing to improve the government capacity, capability management and delivery of health services. This paper presents a first approach of PLANSALUD, including aspects related to planning, management, financing, structure and functioning, as well as monitoring and evaluation measures.

NASA's Contribution to Water Research, Applications and Capacity Building in the America's

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toll, D. L.; Searby, N. D.; Doorn, B.; Lawford, R. G.; Entin, J. K.; Mohr, K. I.; Lee, C.; NASA International Water Team

2013-05-01

NASA's water research, applications and capacity building activities use satellites and models to contribute to regional water information and solutions for the Americas. Free and open exchange of Earth data observations and products helps engage and improve integrated observation networks and enables national and multi-national regional water cycle research and applications. NASA satellite and modeling products provide a huge volume of valuable data extending back over 50 years across a broad range of spatial (local to global) and temporal (hourly to decadal) scales and include many products that are available in near real time (see earthdata.nasa.gov). In addition, NASA's work in hydrologic predictions are valuable for: 1) short-term and hourly data that is critical for flood and landslide warnings; 2) mid-term predictions of days to weeks useful for reservoir planning and water allocation, and 3) long term seasonal to decadal forecasts helpful for agricultural and irrigation planning, land use planning, and water infrastructure development and planning. To further accomplish these objectives NASA works to actively partner with public and private groups (e.g. federal agencies, universities, NGO's, and industry) in the U.S. and internationally to ensure the broadest use of its satellites and related information and products and to collaborate with regional end users who know the regions and their needs best. Through these data, policy and partnering activities, NASA addresses numerous water issues including water scarcity, the extreme events of drought and floods, and water quality so critical to the Americas. This presentation will outline and describe NASA's water related research, applications and capacity building programs' efforts to address the Americas' critical water challenges. This will specifically include water activities in NASA's programs in Terrestrial Hydrology (e.g., land-atmosphere feedbacks and improved stream flow estimation), Water Resources (e.g., drought, snow-pack and agriculture projects), and Disasters (e.g., flooding and landslides), and Capacity Building (e.g., 'SERVIR' science visualizations and environmental monitoring). The presentation will also demonstrate how NASA is a major contributor to water tasks and activities in GEOSS (Global Earth Observing System of Systems) in the Americas as well as USGEO and the international GEO (Group on Earth Observations) activities and to global environmental change research.

The Defense Industrial Base: Prescription for a Psychosomatic Ailment

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-08-01

The Decision- Making Process ------------------------- 65 Notes ---------------------------------------- FIGURE 4-1. The Decision [laking Process...the strategy and tactics process to make certain that we can attain out national security objectives. (IFP is also known as mobilization planning or...decision- making model that could improve the capacity and capability-of the military-industrial complex, thereby increasing the probability of success

A Spiral Plan for Delivery and Evaluation of Continuous Professional Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mack, Paul J.

This paper presents a model that can be used in many settings where there is a need to chart and evaluate continuous professional learning. Every use begins with assessing needs and defining goals for professional growth in context. Vertical movement along a spiral, with continuous support and coaching, indicates expanded capacity and maturation.…

[National Laboratory on Early Childhood Education Program; Program Plans and Budget Request, Fiscal 1970 - Program Project Resumes 1969-70.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

1969

This volume explains the purposes and programs of the National Laboratory on Early Childhood Education. Its overriding objective is to broaden the base of knowledge concerning educational intervention and to develop comprehensive early childhood educational models. A brief discussion deals with the problems, strategies, and capacities of the…

Effects of Task Complexity on the Fluency and Lexical Complexity in EFL Students' Argumentative Writing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ong, Justina; Zhang, Lawrence Jun

2010-01-01

Based on Robinson's (2001a,b, 2003) Cognition Hypothesis and Skehan's (1998) Limited Attentional Capacity Model, this study explored the effects of task complexity on the fluency and lexical complexity of 108 EFL students' argumentative writing. Task complexity was manipulated using three factors: (1) availability of planning time; (2) provision…

A Recreational Visitor Travel Simulation Model as an Aid to Management Planning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lucas, Robert C.; Shechter, Mordechai

1977-01-01

The article describes the use of a simulation for outdoor recreation management which is applicable for any type of dispersed recreation area where visitor flows are of concern, where there are capacity constraints, where visitor encounters are significant, and where it is desired to allow visitors substantial freedom to move about flexibly. (MJB)

Market value: an underused financial planning tool.

PubMed

Harris, J P; Schimmel, V E

1987-04-01

Two issues facing CFOs are capital formation and the long-range financial impact of strategic planning decisions. For not-for-profit organizations, debt capacity is the main determining factor of capital formation while investment analysis is the key to the financial evaluation of strategic planning options. And, the market, or sale, value of the organization can serve as an effective tool to manage current debt capacity and future investment decisions.

[Ecotourism carrying capacity of Hangzhou Xixi National Wetland Park in China].

PubMed

Li, Rui; Rong, Liang

2007-10-01

In this paper, an integrated estimation on the ecotourism carrying capacity of Hangzhou Xixi National Wetland Park in China was made from the aspects of ecological carrying capacity, spatial carrying capacity, facility carrying capacity, management carrying capacity, and psychological carrying capacity. The results indicated that the tourism carrying capacity of the Park was 4 145 - 6 450 persons per day. The rational distance between man and bird was first adopted to determine the ecotourism carrying capacity of wetland, which provided an effective solution both to fully ensure bird safety and to appropriately develop wetland tourism. The estimation of psychological carrying capacity based on tourist satisfaction degree reflected more objectively the extent the tourist demands satisfied at the planning, construction and management of tour places. Such an integrated estimation method based on the distance between man and bird and the tourist satisfaction degree could be of practical and instructive significances in the planning and management of wetland parks.

Climate Vulnerability of Hydro-power infrastructure in the Eastern African Power Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sridharan, Vignesh

2017-04-01

At present there is around 6000 MW of installed hydropower capacity in the Eastern African power pool (EAPP)[1]. With countries aggressively planning to achieve the Sustainable development goal (SDG) of ensuring access to affordable electricity for all, a three-fold increase in hydropower capacity is expected by 2040 [1]. Most of the existing and planned infrastructure lie inside the Nile River Basin. The latest assessment report (AR 5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates a high level of climatic uncertainty in the Nile Basin. The Climate Moisture index (CMI) for the Eastern Nile region and the Nile Equatorial lakes varies significantly across the different General Circulation Models (GCM)[2]. Such high uncertainty casts a shadow on the plans to expand hydropower capacity, doubting whether hydropower expansion can contribute to the goal of improving access to electricity or end up as sunk investments. In this assessment, we analyze adaptation strategies for national energy systems in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP), which minimize the regret that could potentially arise from impacts of a changed climate. An energy systems model of the EAPP is developed representing national electricity supply infrastructure. Cross border transmission and hydropower infrastructure is defined at individual project level. The energy systems model is coupled with a water systems management model of the Nile River Basin that calculates the water availability at different hydropower infrastructures under a range of climate scenarios. The results suggest that a robust adaptation strategy consisting of investments in cross border electricity transmission infrastructure and diversifying sources of electricity supply will require additional investments of USD 4.2 billion by 2050. However, this leads to fuel and operational cost savings of up to USD 22.6 billion, depending on the climate scenario. [1] "Platts, 2016. World Electric Power Plants Database," World Electric Power Plants Database. [Online]. Available: http://www.platts.com/Products/worldelectricpowerplantsdatabase. [Accessed: 01-Mar-2016]. [2] Brent Boehlert, Kenneth M. Strzepek, David Groves, and Bruce Hewitson, Chris Jack, "Climate Change Projections in Africa-Chapter 3," in Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure : The Power and Water Sectors, Washington DC: The World Bank, 2016, p. 219.

Chapter 2. Surge capacity and infrastructure considerations for mass critical care. Recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza epidemic or mass disaster.

PubMed

Hick, John L; Christian, Michael D; Sprung, Charles L

2010-04-01

To provide recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital preparations for a mass disaster or influenza epidemic with a specific focus on surge capacity and infrastructure considerations. Based on a literature review and expert opinion, a Delphi process was used to define the essential topics including surge capacity and infrastructure considerations. Key recommendations include: (1) hospitals should increase their ICU beds to the maximal extent by expanding ICU capacity and expanding ICUs into other areas; (2) hospitals should have appropriate beds and monitors for these expansion areas; hospitals should develop contingency plans at the facility and government (local, state, provincial, national) levels to provide additional ventilators; (3) hospitals should develop a phased staffing plan (nursing and physician) for ICUs that provides sufficient patient care supervision during contingency and crisis situations; (4) hospitals should provide expert input to the emergency management personnel at the hospital both during planning for surge capacity as well as during response; (5) hospitals should assure that adequate infrastructure support is present to support critical care activities; (6) hospitals should prioritize locations for expansion by expanding existing ICUs, using postanesthesia care units and emergency departments to capacity, then step-down units, large procedure suites, telemetry units and finally hospital wards. Judicious planning and adoption of protocols for surge capacity and infrastructure considerations are necessary to optimize outcomes during a pandemic.

Aviation system capacity : annual report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-10-01

The Aviation System Capacity Plan is published annually and, in addition to providing airport delay statistics, serves to identify programs that have potential for increasing capacity and reducing delay.

Examining pre-service science teachers' developing pedagogical design capacity for planning and supporting task-based classroom discussions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, Danielle Kristina

Teachers face many challenges as we move forward into the age of the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) (Achieve, Inc., 2013). The NGSS aim to develop a population of scientifically literate and talented students who can participate in the "innovation-driven economy" (p. 1). In order to meet these goals, teachers must provide students with opportunities to engage in science and engineering practices (SEPs) and learn core ideas of these disciplines. This study followed pre-service secondary science teachers as they participated in a secondary science teacher preparation program intended to support the development of their pedagogical design capacity (Brown, 2009) related to planning and supporting whole-class taskbased discussions. Teacher educators in this program designed an intervention that aimed in supporting this development. This study examined a particular dimension of PDC -- specifically, PSTs effective use of resources to plan science lessons in which students engage in a high demand task, participate in SEPs, and discuss their work in a whole-class setting. In order to examine the effectiveness of the intervention, I had to define PDC a priori. I measured PDC by documenting how/whether PSTs engaged in the following instructional planning practices: developing Learning Goals, selecting and/or designing challenging tasks, anticipating student thinking, planning for monitoring student thinking, imagining the discussion storyline, planning questions, and planning marking strategies. Analyses showed a significant difference between baseline lesson plan scores and Instructional Performance scores. These findings suggest these patterns and changes were directly linked to the teacher preparation program. The mean increase in Instructional Performance scores during the course of the teacher preparation year further supports the effect of the teacher preparation coursework. Pre-service teachers with high pedagogical design capacity continually integrated the ambitious planning practices they learned in their coursework. In contrast, pre-service teachers with low pedagogical design capacity appeared to appropriate the vocabulary and language they learned in coursework, but did not integrate these practices at a high level. This study suggests that pre-service teachers who receive intensive instruction on ambitious planning practices for task-based discussion effectively develop the pedagogical design capacity to plan for task-based discussion lessons.

Water stress, water salience, and the implications for water supply planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.

2017-12-01

Effectively addressing the water supply challenges posed by urbanization and climate change requires a holistic understanding of the water supply system, including the impact of human behavior on system dynamics. Decision makers have limits to available information and information processing capacity, and their attention is not equally distributed among risks. The salience of a given risk is higher when increased attention is directed to it and though perceived risk may increase, real risk does not change. Relevant to water supply planning is how and when water stress results in an increased salience of water risks. This work takes a socio-hydrological approach to develop a water supply planning model that includes water consumption as an endogenous variable, in the context of Las Vegas, NV. To understand the benefits and limitations of this approach, this model is compared to a traditional planning model that uses water consumption scenarios. Both models are applied to project system reliability and water stress under four streamflow and demographic scenarios, and to assess supply side responses to changing conditions. The endogenous demand model enables the identification of feedback between both supply and demand management decisions on future water consumption and system performance. This model, while specific to the Las Vegas case, demonstrates a prototypical modeling framework capable of examining water-supply demand interactions by incorporating water stress driven conservation.

A system dynamic modeling approach for evaluating municipal solid waste generation, landfill capacity and related cost management issues.

PubMed

Kollikkathara, Naushad; Feng, Huan; Yu, Danlin

2010-11-01

As planning for sustainable municipal solid waste management has to address several inter-connected issues such as landfill capacity, environmental impacts and financial expenditure, it becomes increasingly necessary to understand the dynamic nature of their interactions. A system dynamics approach designed here attempts to address some of these issues by fitting a model framework for Newark urban region in the US, and running a forecast simulation. The dynamic system developed in this study incorporates the complexity of the waste generation and management process to some extent which is achieved through a combination of simpler sub-processes that are linked together to form a whole. The impact of decision options on the generation of waste in the city, on the remaining landfill capacity of the state, and on the economic cost or benefit actualized by different waste processing options are explored through this approach, providing valuable insights into the urban waste-management process. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A system dynamic modeling approach for evaluating municipal solid waste generation, landfill capacity and related cost management issues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kollikkathara, Naushad, E-mail: naushadkp@gmail.co; Feng Huan; Yu Danlin

2010-11-15

As planning for sustainable municipal solid waste management has to address several inter-connected issues such as landfill capacity, environmental impacts and financial expenditure, it becomes increasingly necessary to understand the dynamic nature of their interactions. A system dynamics approach designed here attempts to address some of these issues by fitting a model framework for Newark urban region in the US, and running a forecast simulation. The dynamic system developed in this study incorporates the complexity of the waste generation and management process to some extent which is achieved through a combination of simpler sub-processes that are linked together to formmore » a whole. The impact of decision options on the generation of waste in the city, on the remaining landfill capacity of the state, and on the economic cost or benefit actualized by different waste processing options are explored through this approach, providing valuable insights into the urban waste-management process.« less

Working with the Mental Capacity Act: findings from specialist palliative and neurological care settings.

PubMed

Wilson, Eleanor; Seymour, Jane E; Perkins, Paul

2010-06-01

Since October 2007 staff across health and social care services in England and Wales have been guided by the Mental Capacity Act (2005) in the provision of care for those who may lack capacity to make some decisions for themselves. This paper reports on the findings from a study with 26 staff members working in three palliative and three neurological care centres. Semistructured interviews were used to gain an understanding of their knowledge of the Mental Capacity Act, the issue of capacity itself and the documentation processes associated with the introduction of the Act and in line with advance care planning. Within this setting advance care planning is a key part of care provision and the mental capacity of service users is a regular issue. Findings show that staff generally had a good understanding of issues around capacity but felt unclear about some of the terminology related to the Mental Capacity Act, impacting on their confidence to discuss issues with service users and complete the documentation. Many felt the Act and its associated documentation had aided record-keeping in an area staff already delivered well in practice. Advance care planning in the context of the Mental Capacity Act is not as well embedded in practice as providers would like and consideration needs to be given to how and when staff should approach these issues with service users.

Ten years of health workforce planning in the Netherlands: a tentative evaluation of GP planning as an example

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction In many countries, health-care labour markets are constantly being challenged by an alternation of shortage and oversupply. Avoiding these cyclic variations is a major challenge. In the Netherlands, a workforce planning model has been used in health care for ten years. Case description Since 1970, the Dutch government has explored different approaches to determine the inflow in medical schools. In 2000, a simulation model for health workforce planning was developed to estimate the required and available capacity of health professionals in the Netherlands. In this paper, this model is explained, using the Dutch general practitioners as an example. After the different steps in the model are clarified, it is shown how elements can be added to arrive at different versions of the model, or ‘scenarios’. A comparison is made of the results of different scenarios for different years. In addition, the subsequent stakeholder decision-making process is considered. Discussion and evaluation Discussion of this paper shows that workforce planning in the Netherlands is a complex modelling task, which is sensitive to different developments influencing the balance between supply and demand. It seems plausible that workforce planning has resulted in a balance between supply and demand of general practitioners. Still, it remains important that the modelling process is accepted by the different stakeholders. Besides calculating the balance between supply and demand, there needs to be an agreement between the stakeholders to implement the advised training inflow. The Dutch simulation model was evaluated using six criteria to be met by models suitable for policy objectives. This model meets these criteria, as it is a comprehensive and parsimonious model that can include all relevant factors. Conclusion Over the last decade, health workforce planning in the Netherlands has become an accepted instrument for calculating the required supply of health professionals on a regular basis. One of the strengths of the Dutch model is that it can be used for different types of medical and allied health professionals. A weakness is that the model is not yet fully capable of including substitutions between different medical professions to plan from a skill-mix perspective. Several improvements remain possible. PMID:22888974

The results of a limited study of approaches to the design, fabrication, and testing of a dynamic model of the NASA IOC space station. Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brooks, George W.

1985-01-01

The options for the design, construction, and testing of a dynamic model of the space station were evaluated. Since the definition of the space station structure is still evolving, the Initial Operating Capacity (IOC) reference configuration was used as the general guideline. The results of the studies treat: general considerations of the need for and use of a dynamic model; factors which deal with the model design and construction; and a proposed system for supporting the dynamic model in the planned Large Spacecraft Laboratory.

Introducing health gains in location-allocation models: A stochastic model for planning the delivery of long-term care

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardoso, T.; Oliveira, M. D.; Barbosa-Póvoa, A.; Nickel, S.

2015-05-01

Although the maximization of health is a key objective in health care systems, location-allocation literature has not yet considered this dimension. This study proposes a multi-objective stochastic mathematical programming approach to support the planning of a multi-service network of long-term care (LTC), both in terms of services location and capacity planning. This approach is based on a mixed integer linear programming model with two objectives - the maximization of expected health gains and the minimization of expected costs - with satisficing levels in several dimensions of equity - namely, equity of access, equity of utilization, socioeconomic equity and geographical equity - being imposed as constraints. The augmented ε-constraint method is used to explore the trade-off between these conflicting objectives, with uncertainty in the demand and delivery of care being accounted for. The model is applied to analyze the (re)organization of the LTC network currently operating in the Great Lisbon region in Portugal for the 2014-2016 period. Results show that extending the network of LTC is a cost-effective investment.

Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulkepli, Jafri; Fong, Chan Hwa; Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal

2015-12-01

In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

Planning for a Distributed Disruption: Innovative Practices for Incorporating Distributed Solar into Utility Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mills, Andrew D.; Barbose, Galen L.; Seel, Joachim

The rapid growth of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV) has critical implications for U.S. utility planning processes. This report informs utility planning through a comparative analysis of roughly 30 recent utility integrated resource plans or other generation planning studies, transmission planning studies, and distribution system plans. It reveals a spectrum of approaches to incorporating DPV across nine key planning areas, and it identifies areas where even the best current practices might be enhanced. (1) Forecasting DPV deployment: Because it explicitly captures several predictive factors, customer-adoption modeling is the most comprehensive forecasting approach. It could be combined with other forecasting methods tomore » generate a range of potential futures. (2) Ensuring robustness of decisions to uncertain DPV quantities: using a capacity-expansion model to develop least-cost plans for various scenarios accounts for changes in net load and the generation portfolio; an innovative variation of this approach combines multiple per-scenario plans with trigger events, which indicate when conditions have changed sufficiently from the expected to trigger modifications in resource-acquisition strategy. (3) Characterizing DPV as a resource option: Today's most comprehensive plans account for all of DPV's monetary costs and benefits. An enhanced approach would address non-monetary and societal impacts as well. (4) Incorporating the non-dispatchability of DPV into planning: Rather than having a distinct innovative practice, innovation in this area is represented by evolving methods for capturing this important aspect of DPV. (5) Accounting for DPV's location-specific factors: The innovative propensity-to-adopt method employs several factors to predict future DPV locations. Another emerging utility innovation is locating DPV strategically to enhance its benefits. (6) Estimating DPV's impact on transmission and distribution investments: Innovative practices are being implemented to evaluate system needs, hosting capacities, and system investments needed to accommodate DPV deployment. (7) Estimating avoided losses associated with DPV: A time-differentiated marginal loss rate provides the most comprehensive estimate of avoided losses due to DPV, but no studies appear to use it. (8) Considering changes in DPV's value with higher solar penetration: Innovative methods for addressing the value changes at high solar penetrations are lacking among the studies we evaluate. (9) Integrating DPV in planning across generation, transmission, and distribution: A few states and regions have started to develop more comprehensive processes that link planning forums, but there are still many issues to address.« less

Planning for a Distributed Disruption: Innovative Practices for Incorporating Distributed Solar into Utility Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mill, Andrew; Barbose, Galen; Seel, Joachim

The rapid growth of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV) has critical implications for U.S. utility planning processes. This report informs utility planning through a comparative analysis of roughly 30 recent utility integrated resource plans or other generation planning studies, transmission planning studies, and distribution system plans. It reveals a spectrum of approaches to incorporating DPV across nine key planning areas, and it identifies areas where even the best current practices might be enhanced. 1) Forecasting DPV deployment: Because it explicitly captures several predictive factors, customer-adoption modeling is the most comprehensive forecasting approach. It could be combined with other forecasting methods tomore » generate a range of potential futures. 2) Ensuring robustness of decisions to uncertain DPV quantities: using a capacity-expansion model to develop least-cost plans for various scenarios accounts for changes in net load and the generation portfolio; an innovative variation of this approach combines multiple per-scenario plans with trigger events, which indicate when conditions have changed sufficiently from the expected to trigger modifications in resource-acquisition strategy. 3) Characterizing DPV as a resource option: Today’s most comprehensive plans account for all of DPV’s monetary costs and benefits. An enhanced approach would address non-monetary and societal impacts as well. 4) Incorporating the non-dispatchability of DPV into planning: Rather than having a distinct innovative practice, innovation in this area is represented by evolving methods for capturing this important aspect of DPV. 5) Accounting for DPV’s location-specific factors: The innovative propensity-to-adopt method employs several factors to predict future DPV locations. Another emerging utility innovation is locating DPV strategically to enhance its benefits. 6) Estimating DPV’s impact on transmission and distribution investments: Innovative practices are being implemented to evaluate system needs, hosting capacities, and system investments needed to accommodate DPV deployment. 7) Estimating avoided losses associated with DPV: A time-differentiated marginal loss rate provides the most comprehensive estimate of avoided losses due to DPV, but no studies appear to use it. 8) Considering changes in DPV’s value with higher solar penetration: Innovative methods for addressing the value changes at high solar penetrations are lacking among the studies we evaluate. 9) Integrating DPV in planning across generation, transmission, and distribution: A few states and regions have started to develop more comprehensive processes that link planning forums, but there are still many issues to address.« less

Capacity planning of link restorable optical networks under dynamic change of traffic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Kwok Shing; Cheung, Kwok Wai

2005-11-01

Future backbone networks shall require full-survivability and support dynamic changes of traffic demands. The Generalized Survivable Networks (GSN) was proposed to meet these challenges. GSN is fully-survivable under dynamic traffic demand changes, so it offers a practical and guaranteed characterization framework for ASTN / ASON survivable network planning and bandwidth-on-demand resource allocation 4. The basic idea of GSN is to incorporate the non-blocking network concept into the survivable network models. In GSN, each network node must specify its I/O capacity bound which is taken as constraints for any allowable traffic demand matrix. In this paper, we consider the following generic GSN network design problem: Given the I/O bounds of each network node, find a routing scheme (and the corresponding rerouting scheme under failure) and the link capacity assignment (both working and spare) which minimize the cost, such that any traffic matrix consistent with the given I/O bounds can be feasibly routed and it is single-fault tolerant under the link restoration scheme. We first show how the initial, infeasible formal mixed integer programming formulation can be transformed into a more feasible problem using the duality transformation of the linear program. Then we show how the problem can be simplified using the Lagrangian Relaxation approach. Previous work has outlined a two-phase approach for solving this problem where the first phase optimizes the working capacity assignment and the second phase optimizes the spare capacity assignment. In this paper, we present a jointly optimized framework for dimensioning the survivable optical network with the GSN model. Experiment results show that the jointly optimized GSN can bring about on average of 3.8% cost savings when compared with the separate, two-phase approach. Finally, we perform a cost comparison and show that GSN can be deployed with a reasonable cost.

Procedural Documentation and Accuracy Assessment of Bathymetric Maps and Area/Capacity Tables for Small Reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Gary L.; Richards, Joseph M.

2006-01-01

Because of the increasing use and importance of lakes for water supply to communities, a repeatable and reliable procedure to determine lake bathymetry and capacity is needed. A method to determine the accuracy of the procedure will help ensure proper collection and use of the data and resulting products. It is important to clearly define the intended products and desired accuracy before conducting the bathymetric survey to ensure proper data collection. A survey-grade echo sounder and differential global positioning system receivers were used to collect water-depth and position data in December 2003 at Sugar Creek Lake near Moberly, Missouri. Data were collected along planned transects, with an additional set of quality-assurance data collected for use in accuracy computations. All collected data were imported into a geographic information system database. A bathymetric surface model, contour map, and area/capacity tables were created from the geographic information system database. An accuracy assessment was completed on the collected data, bathymetric surface model, area/capacity table, and contour map products. Using established vertical accuracy standards, the accuracy of the collected data, bathymetric surface model, and contour map product was 0.67 foot, 0.91 foot, and 1.51 feet at the 95 percent confidence level. By comparing results from different transect intervals with the quality-assurance transect data, it was determined that a transect interval of 1 percent of the longitudinal length of Sugar Creek Lake produced nearly as good results as 0.5 percent transect interval for the bathymetric surface model, area/capacity table, and contour map products.

Control mechanisms in the third-generation planning. Case study: Control to realize sustainable cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wicaksono, A. D.

2017-06-01

Since the last few years, Indonesia has experienced important events that bring significant changes to the social, political and economic life. The changes directly or indirectly impact the field of planning. With the challenging condition which grows fast and is more complex ahead, and the greater demands on the role of planning, it is required that planning should have higher quality. This paper seeks to answer some questions as follows: (i) How are changes in paradigm and also the development of planning model for the current transition era?, (ii) What is the best way to improve the quality of planning control on the last generation planning model to realize sustainable city?. Analysis steps that will be used to achieve the paper objectives are: (i) Review of planning and sustainable cities theory, (ii) Pattern recognition, (iii) Identifying control mechanisms and sustainable urban forms, (iv) conceptualization. Based on discussion about sustainable cities and control mechanism, some conclusions can be generated as follows: (i) The third generation planning model is based on the theory of expanded system, emphasizing on the constraint of capacity and the ability of planners within the context of larger environment, (ii) There are various theoretical studies that recommend prescriptive model or solution for sustainable urban form and structure. The concepts of Sustainable Cities can be grouped in Neotraditional Development, Urban Containment, Compact City and The Eco-City. The four models above have criteria, namely (i) high density; (ii) a high level of diversity; (iii) mixed land use; (iv) compactness; (5) sustainable transport; (6) passive solar design; (7) Greening Ecological Design. The three main activities in control mechanisms are: Monitoring and Recommendation; a comparative review of the facts (conditions that exist or are developing) with the purpose (expected conditions, set out in urban planning) and recommendations; Evaluation, a review on the intended purposes and can be followed up with revised purposes; Intervention/Actions toward existing conditions.

Developing a Tool to Assess the Capacity of Out-of-School Time Program Providers to Implement Policy, Systems, and Environmental Change.

PubMed

Leeman, Jennifer; Blitstein, Jonathan L; Goetz, Joshua; Moore, Alexis; Tessman, Nell; Wiecha, Jean L

2016-08-11

Little is known about public health practitioners' capacity to change policies, systems, or environments (PSEs), in part due to the absence of measures. To address this need, we partnered with the Alliance for a Healthier Generation (Alliance) to develop and test a theory-derived measure of the capacity of out-of-school time program providers to improve students' level of nutrition and physical activity through changes in PSEs. The measure was developed and tested through an engaged partnership with staff working on the Alliance's Healthy Out-of-School Time (HOST) Initiative. In total, approximately 2,000 sites nationwide are engaged in the HOST Initiative, which serves predominantly high-need children and youths. We partnered with the Alliance to conduct formative work that would help develop a survey that assessed attitudes/beliefs, social norms, external resources/supports, and self-efficacy. The survey was administered to providers of out-of-school time programs who were implementing the Alliance's HOST Initiative. Survey respondents were 185 out-of-school time program providers (53% response rate). Exploratory factor analysis yielded a 4-factor model that explained 44.7% of the variance. Factors pertained to perceptions of social norms (6 items) and self-efficacy to build support and engage a team (4 items) and create (5 items) and implement (3 items) an action plan. We report initial development and factor analysis of a tool that the Alliance can use to assess the capacity of after-school time program providers, which is critical to targeting capacity-building interventions and assessing their effectiveness. Study findings also will inform the development of measures to assess individual capacity to plan and implement other PSE interventions.

Innovative Strategies for Building Community Resilience: Lessons from the Frontlines of Climate Change Capacity-Building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abrash Walton, A.

2017-12-01

There is broad scientific consensus that climate change is occurring; however, there is limited implementation of measures to create resilient local communities (Abrash Walton, Simpson, Rhoades, & Daniels, 2016; Adger, Arnell, & Tompkins, 2005; Glavovic & Smith, 2014; Moser & Ekstrom, 2010; Picketts, Déry, & Curry, 2014). Communities that are considered climate leaders in the United States may have adopted climate change plans, yet few have actually implemented the policies, projects and recommendations in those plans. A range of innovative, education strategies have proven effective in building the capacity of local decision makers to strengthen community resilience. This presentation draws on the results of two years of original research regarding the information and support local decision makers require for effective action. Findings are based on information from four datasets, with more than 600 respondents from 48 U.S. states and 19 other countries working on local adaptation in a range of capacities. These research results can inform priority setting for public policy, budget setting, and action as well as private sector funding and investment. The presentation will focus, in particular, on methods and results of a pioneering Facilitated Community of Practice model (FCoP) for building climate preparedness and community resilience capacity, among local-level decision makers. The FCoP process includes group formation and shared capacity building experience. The process can also support collective objective setting and creation of structures and processes for ongoing sustainable collaboration. Results from two FCoPs - one fully online and the other hybrid - suggest that participants viewed the interpersonal and technical assistance elements of the FCoP as highly valuable. These findings suggest that there is an important need for facilitated networking and other relational aspects of building capacity among those advancing resilience at the local level.

Research and Evaluations of the Health Aspects of Disasters, Part IX: Risk-Reduction Framework.

PubMed

Birnbaum, Marvin L; Daily, Elaine K; O'Rourke, Ann P; Loretti, Alessandro

2016-06-01

A disaster is a failure of resilience to an event. Mitigating the risks that a hazard will progress into a destructive event, or increasing the resilience of a society-at-risk, requires careful analysis, planning, and execution. The Disaster Logic Model (DLM) is used to define the value (effects, costs, and outcome(s)), impacts, and benefits of interventions directed at risk reduction. A Risk-Reduction Framework, based on the DLM, details the processes involved in hazard mitigation and/or capacity-building interventions to augment the resilience of a community or to decrease the risk that a secondary event will develop. This Framework provides the structure to systematically undertake and evaluate risk-reduction interventions. It applies to all interventions aimed at hazard mitigation and/or increasing the absorbing, buffering, or response capacities of a community-at-risk for a primary or secondary event that could result in a disaster. The Framework utilizes the structure provided by the DLM and consists of 14 steps: (1) hazards and risks identification; (2) historical perspectives and predictions; (3) selection of hazard(s) to address; (4) selection of appropriate indicators; (5) identification of current resilience standards and benchmarks; (6) assessment of the current resilience status; (7) identification of resilience needs; (8) strategic planning; (9) selection of an appropriate intervention; (10) operational planning; (11) implementation; (12) assessments of outputs; (13) synthesis; and (14) feedback. Each of these steps is a transformation process that is described in detail. Emphasis is placed on the role of Coordination and Control during planning, implementation of risk-reduction/capacity building interventions, and evaluation. Birnbaum ML , Daily EK , O'Rourke AP , Loretti A . Research and evaluations of the health aspects of disasters, part IX: Risk-Reduction Framework. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(3):309-325.

Integrated Resource Planning Model (IRPM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graham, T. B.

2010-04-01

The Integrated Resource Planning Model (IRPM) is a decision-support software product for resource-and-capacity planning. Users can evaluate changing constraints on schedule performance, projected cost, and resource use. IRPM is a unique software tool that can analyze complex business situations from a basic supply chain to an integrated production facility to a distributed manufacturing complex. IRPM can be efficiently configured through a user-friendly graphical interface to rapidly provide charts, graphs, tables, and/or written results to summarize postulated business scenarios. There is not a similar integrated resource planning software package presently available. Many different businesses (from government to large corporations as wellmore » as medium-to-small manufacturing concerns) could save thousands of dollars and hundreds of labor hours in resource and schedule planning costs. Those businesses also could avoid millions of dollars of revenue lost from fear of overcommitting or from penalties and lost future business for failing to meet promised delivery by using IRPM to perform what-if business-case evaluations. Tough production planning questions that previously were left unanswered can now be answered with a high degree of certainty. Businesses can anticipate production problems and have solutions in hand to deal with those problems. IRPM allows companies to make better plans, decisions, and investments.« less

Clash inside the Academy: The Market and the Strife for the Democratic Values of the Western University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gburi, Imad

2016-01-01

The growing popularity of the corporate university model raises the question of whether the market principles are suitable for planning the policy of a key enterprise like the university without weakening its capacity of pursuing critical knowledge and teaching for democracy. Does the inclusion of the free market imperatives in the functioning of…

Working with Toronto neighbourhoods toward developing indicators of community capacity.

PubMed

Jackson, Suzanne F; Cleverly, Shelley; Poland, Blake; Burman, David; Edwards, Richard; Robertson, Ann

2003-12-01

Often the goal of health and social development agencies is to assess communities and work with them to improve community capacity. Particularly for health promoters working in community settings and to ensure consistency in the definition of health promotion, the evaluation of health promotion programmes should be based on strengths and assets, yet existing information for planning and evaluation purposes usually focuses on problems and deficits. A model and definition of community capacity, grounded in community experience and focusing on strengths and assets, was developed following a 4-year, multi-site, qualitative, action research project in four Toronto neighbourhoods. There was significant community involvement in the four Community Advisory Committees, one for each study site. Semi-structured, open-ended interviews and focus groups were conducted with 161 residents and agency workers identified by the Community Advisory Committees. The data were analyzed with the assistance of NUDIST software. Thematic analysis was undertaken in two stages: (i) within each site and (ii) across sites, with the latter serving as the basis for the development of indicators of community capacity. This paper presents a summary of the research, the model and the proposed indicators. The model locates talents and skills of community members in a larger context of socioenvironmental conditions, both inside and outside the community, which can act to enable or constrain the expression of these talents and skills. The significance of the indicators of community capacity proposed in the study is that they focus on identifying and measuring the facilitating and constraining socioenvironmental conditions.

A Feeder-Bus Dispatch Planning Model for Emergency Evacuation in Urban Rail Transit Corridors

PubMed Central

Wang, Yun; Yan, Xuedong; Zhou, Yu; Zhang, Wenyi

2016-01-01

The mobility of modern metropolises strongly relies on urban rail transit (URT) systems, and such a heavy dependence causes that even minor service interruptions would make the URT systems unsustainable. This study aims at optimally dispatching the ground feeder-bus to coordinate with the urban rails’ operation for eliminating the effect of unexpected service interruptions in URT corridors. A feeder-bus dispatch planning model was proposed for the collaborative optimization of URT and feeder-bus cooperation under emergency situations and minimizing the total evacuation cost of the feeder-buses. To solve the model, a concept of dummy feeder-bus system is proposed to transform the non-linear model into traditional linear programming (ILP) model, i.e., traditional transportation problem. The case study of Line #2 of Nanjing URT in China was adopted to illustrate the model application and sensitivity analyses of the key variables. The modeling results show that as the evacuation time window increases, the total evacuation cost as well as the number of dispatched feeder-buses decrease, and the dispatched feeder-buses need operate for more times along the feeder-bus line. The number of dispatched feeder-buses does not show an obvious change with the increase of parking spot capacity and time window, indicating that simply increasing the parking spot capacity would cause huge waste for the emergent bus utilization. When the unbalanced evacuation demand exists between stations, the more feeder-buses are needed. The method of this study will contribute to improving transportation emergency management and resource allocation for URT systems. PMID:27676179

Capacity planning for electronic waste management facilities under uncertainty: multi-objective multi-time-step model development.

PubMed

Poonam Khanijo Ahluwalia; Nema, Arvind K

2011-07-01

Selection of optimum locations for locating new facilities and decision regarding capacities at the proposed facilities is a major concern for municipal authorities/managers. The decision as to whether a single facility is preferred over multiple facilities of smaller capacities would vary with varying priorities to cost and associated risks such as environmental or health risk or risk perceived by the society. Currently management of waste streams such as that of computer waste is being done using rudimentary practices and is flourishing as an unorganized sector, mainly as backyard workshops in many cities of developing nations such as India. Uncertainty in the quantification of computer waste generation is another major concern due to the informal setup of present computer waste management scenario. Hence, there is a need to simultaneously address uncertainty in waste generation quantities while analyzing the tradeoffs between cost and associated risks. The present study aimed to address the above-mentioned issues in a multi-time-step, multi-objective decision-support model, which can address multiple objectives of cost, environmental risk, socially perceived risk and health risk, while selecting the optimum configuration of existing and proposed facilities (location and capacities).

Modeling renewable portfolio standards for the annual energy outlook 1998 - electricity market module

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

The Electricity Market Module (EMM) is the electricity supply component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The EMM represents the generation, transmission, and pricing of electricity. It consists of four submodules: the Electricity Capacity Planning (ECP) Submodule, the Electricity Fuel Dispatch (EFD) Submodule, the Electricity Finance and Pricing (EFP) Submodule, and the Load and Demand-Side Management (LDSM) Submodule. For the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), the EMM has been modified to represent Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), which are included in many of the Federal and state proposals for deregulating the electric power industry. A RPS specifies that electricity suppliersmore » must produce a minimum level of generation using renewable technologies. Producers with insufficient renewable generating capacity can either build new plants or purchase {open_quotes}credits{close_quotes} from other suppliers with excess renewable generation. The representation of a RPS involves revisions to the ECP, EFD, and the EFP. The ECP projects capacity additions required to meet the minimum renewable generation levels in future years. The EFD determines the sales and purchases of renewable credits for the current year. The EFP incorporates the cost of building capacity and trading credits into the price of electricity.« less

Climate adaptation planning in practice: an evaluation of adaptation plans from three developed nations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Preston, Benjamin L; Westaway, Richard M.; Yuen, Emma J.

2011-04-01

Formal planning for climate change adaptation is emerging rapidly at a range of geo-political scales. This first generation of adaptation plans provides useful information regarding how institutions are framing the issue of adaptation and the range of processes that are recognized as being part of an adaptation response. To better understand adaptation planning among developed nations, a set of 57 adaptation plans from Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States was evaluated against a suite of 19 planning processes identified from existing guidance instruments for adaptation planning. Total scores among evaluated plans ranged from 16% of the maximum possiblemore » score to 61%, with an average of 37%. These results suggest adaptation plans are largely under-developed. Critical weaknesses in adaptation planning are related to limited consideration for non-climatic factors as well as neglect for issues of adaptive capacity including entitlements to various forms of capital needed for effective adaptation. Such gaps in planning suggest there are opportunities for institutions to make better use of existing guidance for adaptation planning and the need to consider the broader governance context in which adaptation will occur. In addition, the adaptation options prescribed by adaptation plans reflect a preferential bias toward low-risk capacity-building (72% of identified options) over the delivery of specific actions to reduce vulnerability. To the extent these findings are representative of the state of developed nation adaptation planning, there appear to be significant deficiencies in climate change preparedness, even among those nations often assumed to have the greatest adaptive capacity.« less

Developing a Legal Framework for Advance Healthcare Planning: Comparing England & Wales and Ireland.

PubMed

Donnelly, Mary

2017-03-01

This article examines the legislative frameworks for advance healthcare planning in England & Wales (the Mental Capacity Act 2005) and in Ireland (the Assisted Decision-Making (Capacity) Act 2015), undertaking a comparative analysis of each measure, with particular focus on the detail of the approaches taken. It is only through this kind of detailed focus that the normative choices made by legislation can fully be understood and evaluated. The article argues that, in several respects, possibly because the drafters were able to reflect lessons learned from other jurisdictions, the Assisted Decision-Making (Capacity) Act 2015 provides a more rounded and complete form of advance healthcare planning than that provided by the Mental Capacity Act. This is on the basis that it provides more protection for patient choice; better potential for delivery on the choices made; and a more appropriate balance between formalities and enforceability.

Short-Term Forecasting of Loads and Wind Power for Latvian Power System: Accuracy and Capacity of the Developed Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radziukynas, V.; Klementavičius, A.

2016-04-01

The paper analyses the performance results of the recently developed short-term forecasting suit for the Latvian power system. The system load and wind power are forecasted using ANN and ARIMA models, respectively, and the forecasting accuracy is evaluated in terms of errors, mean absolute errors and mean absolute percentage errors. The investigation of influence of additional input variables on load forecasting errors is performed. The interplay of hourly loads and wind power forecasting errors is also evaluated for the Latvian power system with historical loads (the year 2011) and planned wind power capacities (the year 2023).

A business planning model to identify new safety net clinic locations.

PubMed

Langabeer, James; Helton, Jeffrey; DelliFraine, Jami; Dotson, Ebbin; Watts, Carolyn; Love, Karen

2014-01-01

Community health clinics serving the poor and underserved are geographically expanding due to changes in U.S. health care policy. This paper describes the experience of a collaborative alliance of health care providers in a large metropolitan area who develop a conceptual and mathematical decision model to guide decisions on expanding its network of community health clinics. Community stakeholders participated in a collaborative process that defined constructs they deemed important in guiding decisions on the location of community health clinics. This collaboration also defined key variables within each construct. Scores for variables within each construct were then totaled and weighted into a community-specific optimal space planning equation. This analysis relied entirely on secondary data available from published sources. The model built from this collaboration revolved around the constructs of demand, sustainability, and competition. It used publicly available data defining variables within each construct to arrive at an optimal location that maximized demand and sustainability and minimized competition. This is a model that safety net clinic planners and community stakeholders can use to analyze demographic and utilization data to optimize capacity expansion to serve uninsured and Medicaid populations. Communities can use this innovative model to develop a locally relevant clinic location-planning framework.

Sustainability of NGO capacity building in southern Africa: successes and opportunities.

PubMed

Humphries, Debbie; Gomez, Ligia; Hartwig, Kari

2011-01-01

Despite an increase in organizational capacity building efforts by external organizations in low and middle income countries, the documentation of these efforts and their effects on health programs and systems remains limited. This paper reviews key frameworks for considering sustainability of capacity building and applies these frameworks to an evaluation of the sustainability of an AIDS non-governmental organization (NGO) capacity building initiative. From 2004-2007 Bristol-Myers Squibb Foundation's Secure the Future(TM) initiative in southern Africa funded a five country program, the NGO Training Institute (NGOTI), to build capacity of NGOs working to address HIV/AIDS. Lessons learned from this project include issues of ownership, the importance of integrating planning for sustainability within capacity-building projects, and the value of identifying primary capacity-building objectives in order to select sustainability strategies that are focused on maintaining program benefits. Sustainability for capacity building projects can be developed by discussing key issues early in the planning process with all primary stakeholders. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Computer Based Decision Support Tool for Helicopter Mission Planning in Disaster Relief and Military Operations (Outil informatique d’aide a la decision pour la planification des missions d’helicopteres dans des operations militaires et de secours en cas de catastrophe)

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-01

capacity planning; • Electrical generation capacity planning; • Machine scheduling; • Freight scheduling; • Dairy farm expansion planning...Support Systems and Multi Criteria Decision Analysis Products A.2.11.2.2.1 ELECTRE IS ELECTRE IS is a generalization of ELECTRE I. It is a...criteria, ELECTRE IS supports the user in the process of selecting one alternative or a subset of alternatives. The method consists of two parts

Supporting local planning and budgeting for maternal, neonatal and child health in the Philippines

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Responsibility for planning and delivery of health services in the Philippines is devolved to the local government level. Given the recognised need to strengthen capacity for local planning and budgeting, we implemented Investment Cases (IC) for Maternal, Neonatal and Child Health (MNCH) in three selected sub-national units: two poor, rural provinces and one highly-urbanised city. The IC combines structured problem-solving by local policymakers and planners to identify key health system constraints and strategies to scale-up critical MNCH interventions with a decision-support model to estimate the cost and impact of different scaling-up scenarios. Methods We outline how the initiative was implemented, the aspects that worked well, and the key limitations identified in the sub-national application of this approach. Results Local officials found the structured analysis of health system constraints helpful to identify problems and select locally appropriate strategies. In particular the process was an improvement on standard approaches that focused only on supply-side issues. However, the lack of data available at the local level is a major impediment to planning. While the majority of the strategies recommended by the IC were incorporated into the 2011 plans and budgets in the three study sites, one key strategy in the participating city was subsequently reversed in 2012. Higher level systemic issues are likely to have influenced use of evidence in plans and budgets and implementation of strategies. Conclusions Efforts should be made to improve locally-representative data through routine information systems for planning and monitoring purposes. Even with sound plans and budgets, evidence is only one factor influencing investments in health. Political considerations at a local level and issues related to decentralisation, influence prioritisation and implementation of plans. In addition to the strengthening of capacity at local level, a parallel process at a higher level of government to relieve fund channelling and coordination issues is critical for any evidence-based planning approach to have a significant impact on health service delivery. PMID:23343218

Building and measuring infrastructure and capacity for community health assessment and health improvement planning in Florida.

PubMed

Abarca, Christine; Grigg, C Meade; Steele, Jo Ann; Osgood, Laurie; Keating, Heidi

2009-01-01

COMPASS (Comprehensive Assessment, Strategic Success) is the Florida Department of Health's community health assessment and health improvement planning initiative. Since 2002, COMPASS built state and county health department infrastructure to support a comprehensive, systematic, and integrated approach to community health assessment and planning. To assess the capacity of Florida's 67 county health departments (CHDs) to conduct community health assessment and planning and to identify training and technical assistance needs, COMPASS surveyed the CHDs using a Web-based instrument annually from 2004 through 2008. Response rate to the survey was 100 percent annually. In 2007, 96 percent of CHDs reported conducting assessment and planning within the past 3 years; 74 percent used the MAPP (Mobilizing for Action through Planning and Partnerships) framework. Progress was greater for the organizational and assessment phases of the MAPP-based work; only 10 CHDs had identified strategic priorities in 2007, and even fewer had implemented strategies for improving health. In 2007, the most frequently requested types of training were measuring success, developing goals and action plans, and using qualitative data; technical assistance was most frequently requested for program evaluation and writing community health status reports. Florida's CHDs have increased their capacity to conduct community health assessment and planning. Questions remain about sustaining these gains with limited resources.

Data mining to support simulation modeling of patient flow in hospitals.

PubMed

Isken, Mark W; Rajagopalan, Balaji

2002-04-01

Spiraling health care costs in the United States are driving institutions to continually address the challenge of optimizing the use of scarce resources. One of the first steps towards optimizing resources is to utilize capacity effectively. For hospital capacity planning problems such as allocation of inpatient beds, computer simulation is often the method of choice. One of the more difficult aspects of using simulation models for such studies is the creation of a manageable set of patient types to include in the model. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the potential of using data mining techniques, specifically clustering techniques such as K-means, to help guide the development of patient type definitions for purposes of building computer simulation or analytical models of patient flow in hospitals. Using data from a hospital in the Midwest this study brings forth several important issues that researchers need to address when applying clustering techniques in general and specifically to hospital data.

Drought planning and water allocation: an assessment of local capacity in Minnesota.

PubMed

Pirie, Rebecca L; de Loë, Rob C; Kreutzwiser, Reid

2004-10-01

Water allocation systems are challenged by hydrologic droughts, which reduce available water supplies and can adversely affect human and environmental systems. To address this problem, drought management mechanisms have been instituted in jurisdictions around the world. Historically, these mechanisms have involved a crisis management or reactive approach. An important trend during the past decade in places such as the United States has been a shift to a more proactive approach, emphasizing drought preparedness and local involvement. Unfortunately, local capacity for drought planning is highly variable, with some local governments and organizations proving to be more capable than others of taking on new responsibilities. This paper reports on a study of drought planning and water allocation in the State of Minnesota. Factors facilitating and constraining local capacity for drought planning were identified using in-depth key informant interviews with state officials and members of two small Minnesota cities, combined with an analysis of pertinent documentation. A key factor contributing to the effectiveness of Minnesota's system is a water allocation system with explicit priorities during shortages, and provisions for restrictions. At the same time, the requirement that water suppliers create Public Water Supply Emergency Conservation Plans (PWSECP) clarifies the roles and responsibilities of key local actors. Unfortunately, the research revealed that mandated PWSECP are not always implemented, and that awareness of drought and drought planning measures in general may be poor at the local level. From the perspective of the two cities evaluated, factors that contributed to local capacity included sound financial and human resources, and (in some cases) effective vertical and horizontal linkages. This analysis of experiences in Minnesota highlights problems that can occur when senior governments establish policy frameworks that increase responsibilities at the local level without also addressing local capacity.

Impact of Operating Rules on Planning Capacity Expansion of Urban Water Supply Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Neufville, R.; Galelli, S.; Tian, X.

2017-12-01

This study addresses the impact of operating rules on capacity planning of urban water supply systems. The continuous growth of metropolitan areas represents a major challenge for water utilities, which often rely on industrial water supply (e.g., desalination, reclaimed water) to complement natural resources (e.g., reservoirs). These additional sources increase the reliability of supply, equipping operators with additional means to hedge against droughts. How do their rules for using industrial water supply impact the performance of water supply system? How might it affect long-term plans for capacity expansion? Possibly significantly, as demonstrated by the analysis of the operations and planning of a water supply system inspired by Singapore. Our analysis explores the system dynamics under multiple inflow and management scenarios to understand the extent to which alternative operating rules for the use of industrial water supply affect system performance. Results first show that these operating rules can have significant impact on the variability in system performance (e.g., reliability, energy use) comparable to that of hydro-climatological conditions. Further analyses of several capacity expansion exercises—based on our original hydrological and management scenarios—show that operating rules significantly affect the timing and magnitude of critical decisions, such as the construction of new desalination plants. These results have two implications: Capacity expansion analysis should consider the effect of a priori uncertainty about operating rules; and operators should consider how their flexibility in operating rules can affect their perceived need for capacity.

Assessment of the Sustainability Capacity of a Coordinated Approach to Chronic Disease Prevention.

PubMed

Moreland-Russell, Sarah; Combs, Todd; Polk, LaShaun; Dexter, Sarah

This article outlines some factors that influenced the sustainability capacity of a coordinated approach to chronic disease prevention in state and territory health departments. This study involved a cross-sectional design and mixed-methods approach. Quantitative data were collected using the Program Sustainability Assessment Tool (PSAT), a 40-item multiple-choice instrument that assesses 8 domains of sustainability capacity (environmental support, funding stability, partnerships, organizational capacity, program evaluation, program adaptation, communications, and strategic planning). Qualitative data were collected via phone interviews. The PSAT was administered to staff and stakeholders from public health departments in 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico, who were involved in the implementation of coordinated chronic disease programs. Phone interviews were conducted with program coordinators in each state. Sustainability score patterns and state-level categorical results, as well as strengths and opportunities for improvement across the 8 program sustainability domains, were explored. On average, programs reported the strongest sustainability capacity in the domains of program adaptation, environmental support, and organizational capacity, while funding stability, strategic planning, and communications yielded lowest scores, indicating weakest capacity. Scores varied the most by state in environmental support and strategic planning. The PSAT results highlight the process through which states approached the sustainability of coordinated chronic disease initiatives. This process included an initial focus on program evaluation and partnerships with transfer of priority to long-term strategic planning, communications, and funding stability to further establish coordinated chronic disease efforts. Qualitative interviews provided further context to PSAT results, indicating that leadership, communications, partnerships, funding stability, and policy change were perceived as keys to success of the transition. Integrating these findings into future efforts may help those in transition establish greater sustainability capacity. The PSAT results and interviews provide insight into the capacity for sustainability for programs transitioning from traditional siloed programs to coordinated chronic disease programs.

Secondary Surge Capacity: A Framework for Understanding Long-Term Access to Primary Care for Medically Vulnerable Populations in Disaster Recovery

PubMed Central

Brock-Martin, Amy; Karmaus, Wilfried; Svendsen, Erik R.

2012-01-01

Disasters create a secondary surge in casualties because of the sudden increased need for long-term health care. Surging demands for medical care after a disaster place excess strain on an overtaxed health care system operating at maximum or reduced capacity. We have applied a health services use model to identify areas of vulnerability that perpetuate health disparities for at-risk populations seeking care after a disaster. We have proposed a framework to understand the role of the medical system in modifying the health impact of the secondary surge on vulnerable populations. Baseline assessment of existing needs and the anticipation of ballooning chronic health care needs following the acute response for at-risk populations are overlooked vulnerability gaps in national surge capacity plans. PMID:23078479

Will building new reservoirs always help increase the water supply reliability? - insight from a modeling-based global study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Y.; Tian, F.; Yigzaw, W.; Hejazi, M. I.; Li, H. Y.; Turner, S. W. D.; Vernon, C. R.

2017-12-01

More and more reservoirs are being build or planned in order to help meet the increasing water demand all over the world. However, is building new reservoirs always helpful to water supply? To address this question, the river routing module of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) has been extended with a simple yet physical-based reservoir scheme accounting for irrigation, flood control and hydropower operations at each individual reservoir. The new GCAM river routing model has been applied over the global domain with the runoff inputs from the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model. The simulated streamflow is validated at 150 global river basins where the observed streamflow data are available. The model performance has been significantly improved at 77 basins and worsened at 35 basins. To facilitate the analysis of additional reservoir storage impacts at the basin level, a lumped version of GCAM reservoir model has been developed, representing a single lumped reservoir at each river basin which has the regulation capacity of all reservoir combined. A Sequent Peak Analysis is used to estimate how much additional reservoir storage is required to satisfy the current water demand. For basins with water deficit, the water supply reliability can be improved with additional storage. However, there is a threshold storage value at each basin beyond which the reliability stops increasing, suggesting that building new reservoirs will not help better relieve the water stress. Findings in the research can be helpful to the future planning and management of new reservoirs.

Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuldna, Piret, E-mail: piret.kuldna@seit.ee; Peterson, Kaja; Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the nationalmore » energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem.« less

Engaging a University in Self-Assessment and Strategic Planning to Build Partnership Capacity: The UCSF Experience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wortis, Naomi; Goldstein, Ellen; Vargas, Roberto Ariel; Grumbach, Kevin

2006-01-01

In an effort to better fulfill its public service mission, the University of California, San Francisco, has undertaken an intensive assessment and strategic planning process to build institutional capacity for civic engagement and community partnership. The first stage was a qualitative assessment focused primarily on three local communities,…

Building the Capacity of States to Ensure Inclusion of Rural Communities in State and Local Primary Violence Prevention Planning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cook-Craig, Patricia G.; Lane, Karen G.; Siebold, Wendi L.

2010-01-01

Rural, frontier, and geographically isolated communities face unique challenges associated with ensuring that they are equal partners in capacity-building and prevention planning processes at the state and local level despite barriers that can inhibit participation. By their nature, rural, frontier, and geographically isolated communities and…

Using Action Planning to Build Organizational Capacity for the Prevention of Intimate Partner Violence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schober, Daniel J.; Fawcett, Stephen B.

2015-01-01

The DELTA PREP Project aims to reduce risk for intimate partner violence (IPV). It engaged leadership and staff from 19 statewide domestic violence coalitions in building capacity to prevent IPV before it occurs (rather than solely responding to IPV). This article describes the process and outcomes associated with action planning to create…

76 FR 5611 - Notice of Availability of the Environmental Assessment for the Short Term Sentences Acquisition

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-01

... action alternatives and the No Action Alternative. Natural, cultural, and socioeconomic resource impacts.... Cohn, Chief, or Issac J. Gaston, Site Selection Specialist, Capacity Planning and Site Selection Branch..., Capacity Planning and Site Selection Branch. [FR Doc. 2011-1817 Filed 1-31-11; 8:45 am] BILLING CODE P ...

Planning of the 12 GHz broadcasting satellite service in Region 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowen, R. R.; Chambers, J. G.

The 12 GHz band broadcasting satellite plan formulated for Region 2 (the Americas) at the 1983 Regional Administrative Radio Conference met all requirements with a total of 1144 assigned channels. In order to achieve this high capacity (16 channels/service area), it was necessary to place some assignments at orbit locations with relatively low elevation angles and early eclipse times. This high capacity does not prevent the plan from adapting to changing technological features of broadcasting in this band as it evolves over the years, and is estimated to be more than 2.5 times larger than the capacity which would be available without taking advantage of the geographical characteristics of the region, as well as of isolation by means of spacecraft antennas.

Digitalization in the space sector - The Guatemalan experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robles, Jorge Rodolfo

The present status of Guatemalan satellite- and communications-related technology is discussed, including recent changes and plans for future work. The international telecommunications capacity and the operations of Guatel are emphasized. Plans for the digitalization of the land-based station Quetzal I and the addition of a second station are described. The equipment and configurations of the digital conversion are specified. The anticipated capacity of the Quetzal I station will be 300,000 telephone lines and the technology used will integrate international digital service for both transmission and exchange. The capacity of the second land station includes 1500 telephone channels, 30 IBS channels, and television transmission and reception. A plan for regional cooperation is proposed to improve the utilization of satellite technology in Central America.

Lessons in Building Capacity in Sexuality Education Using the Health Promoting School Framework: From Planning to Implementation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ollis, Debbie; Harrison, Lyn

2016-01-01

Purpose: The health promoting school model is rarely implemented in relation to sexuality education. This paper reports on data collected as part of a five-year project designed to implement a health promoting and whole school approach to sexuality education in a five campus year 1-12 college in regional Victoria, Australia. Using a community…

Energy Security: Emerging Challenges and Opportunities

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-08-01

46 Appendix A: Electrical Capacity Margins...options........................................................................................ 21 6 Net electrical capacity compared to the North...Energy Security The Army Energy and Water Campaign Plan for Installations defines energy security as: the capacity to avoid adverse impact of energy

Forecast Mekong 2012: Building scientific capacity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stefanov, James E.

2012-01-01

In 2009, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton joined the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam in launching the Lower Mekong Initiative to enhance U.S. engagement with the countries of the Lower Mekong River Basin in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey Forecast Mekong supports the Lower Mekong Initiative through a variety of activities. The principal objectives of Forecast Mekong include the following: * Build scientific capacity in the Lower Mekong Basin and promote cooperation and collaboration among scientists working in the region. * Provide data, information, and scientific models to help resource managers there make informed decisions. * Produce forecasting and visualization tools to support basin planning, including climate change adaptation. The focus of this product is Forecast Mekong accomplishments and current activities related to the development of scientific capacity at organizations and institutions in the region. Building on accomplishments in 2010 and 2011, Forecast Mekong continues to enhance scientific capacity in the Lower Mekong Basin with a suite of activities in 2012.

[Simulation of air pollution characteristics and estimates of environmental capacity in Zibo City].

PubMed

Xue, Wen-Bo; Wang, Jin-Nan; Yang, Jin-Tian; Lei, Yu; Yan, Li; He, Jin-Yu; Han, Bao-Ping

2013-04-01

To develop a new pattern of air pollution control that is based on the integration of "concentration control, total amount control, and quality control", and in the context of developing national (2011-2015 air pollution control plan for key areas) and (Environmental protection plan of Zibo municipality for the "12th Five-Year Plan" period), a simulation of atmospheric dispersion of air pollutants in Zibo City and its peripheral areas is carried out by employing CALPUFF model, and the atmospheric environmental capacity of SO2, NO(x) and PM10 is estimated based on the results of model simulation and using multi-objective linear programming optimization. The results indicates that the air pollution in Zibo City is significantly related to the pollution sources outside of Zibo City, which contributes to the annual average concentration of SO2, NO2 and PM10 in Zibo City by 26.34%, 21.23%, and 14.58% respectively. There is a notable interaction between districts and counties of Zibo municipality, in which the contribution of SO2, NO(x) and PM10 emissions in surrounding counties and districts to the annual average concentrations of SO2, NO2 and PM10 in downtown area are 35.96%, 43.17%, and 17.69% respectively. There is a great variation in spatial sensitivity of air pollutant emission, and the environmental impact of unit pollutant emissions from Zhoucun, Huantai, Zhangdian and Zichuan is greater than that released from other districts/counties. To meet the requirement of (Ambient air quality standard) (GB 3095-2012), the environmental capacities of SO2, NO(x) and PM10 of Zibo City are only 8.03 x 10(4) t, 19.16 x 10(4) t and 3.21 x 10(4) t, respectively. Therefore, it is imperative to implement regional air pollution joint control in Shandong peninsula in order to ensure the achievement of air quality standard in Zibo City.

The operating room case-mix problem under uncertainty and nurses capacity constraints.

PubMed

Yahia, Zakaria; Eltawil, Amr B; Harraz, Nermine A

2016-12-01

Surgery is one of the key functions in hospitals; it generates significant revenue and admissions to hospitals. In this paper we address the decision of choosing a case-mix for a surgery department. The objective of this study is to generate an optimal case-mix plan of surgery patients with uncertain surgery operations, which includes uncertainty in surgery durations, length of stay, surgery demand and the availability of nurses. In order to obtain an optimal case-mix plan, a stochastic optimization model is proposed and the sample average approximation method is applied. The proposed model is used to determine the number of surgery cases to be weekly served, the amount of operating rooms' time dedicated to each specialty and the number of ward beds dedicated to each specialty. The optimal case-mix selection criterion is based upon a weighted score taking into account both the waiting list and the historical demand of each patient category. The score aims to maximizing the service level of the operating rooms by increasing the total number of surgery cases that could be served. A computational experiment is presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method. The results show that the stochastic model solution outperforms the expected value problem solution. Additional analysis is conducted to study the effect of varying the number of ORs and nurses capacity on the overall ORs' performance.

Multi-disciplinary assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture to support adaptation decision making in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

2016-04-01

Many existing climate change impact studies, carried out by academic researchers, are disconnected from decision making processes of stakeholders. On the other hand many climate change adaptation projects in developing countries lack a solid evidence base of current and future climate impacts as well as vulnerabilities assessment at different scales. In order to fill this information gap, FAO has developed and implemented a tool "MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change)" in several developing countries such as Morocco, the Philippines and Peru, and recently in Malawi and Zambia. MOSAICC employs a multi-disciplinary assessment approach to addressing climate change impacts and adaptation planning in the agriculture and food security sectors, and integrates five components from different academic disciplines: 1. Statistical downscaling of climate change projections, 2. Yield simulation of major crops at regional scale under climate change, 3. Surface hydrology simulation model, 4. Macroeconomic model, and 5. Forestry model. Furthermore MOSAICC has been developed as a capacity development tool for the national scientists so that they can conduct the country assessment themselves, using their own data, and reflect the outcome into the national adaptation policies. The outputs are nation-wide coverage, disaggregated at sub-national level to support strategic planning, investments and decisions by national policy makers. MOSAICC is designed in such a way to promote stakeholders' participation and strengthen technical capacities in developing countries. The paper presents MOSAICC and projects that used MOSAICC as a tool with case studies from countries.

Institutional capacity for health systems research in East and Central African schools of public health: experiences with a capacity assessment tool.

PubMed

Jessani, Nasreen; Lewy, Daniela; Ekirapa-Kiracho, Elizabeth; Bennett, Sara

2014-06-02

Despite significant investments in health systems research (HSR) capacity development, there is a dearth of information regarding how to assess HSR capacity. An alliance of schools of public health (SPHs) in East and Central Africa developed a tool for the self-assessment of HSR capacity with the aim of producing institutional capacity development plans. Between June and November 2011, seven SPHs across the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda implemented this co-created tool. The objectives of the institutional assessments were to assess existing capacities for HSR and to develop capacity development plans to address prioritized gaps. A mixed-method approach was employed consisting of document analysis, self-assessment questionnaires, in-depth interviews, and institutional dialogues aimed at capturing individual perceptions of institutional leadership, collective HSR skills, knowledge translation, and faculty incentives to engage in HSR. Implementation strategies for the capacity assessment varied across the SPHs. This paper reports findings from semi-structured interviews with focal persons from each SPH, to reflect on the process used at each SPH to execute the institutional assessments as well as the perceived strengths and weaknesses of the assessment process. The assessment tool was robust enough to be utilized in its entirety across all seven SPHs resulting in a thorough HSR capacity assessment and a capacity development plan for each SPH. Successful implementation of the capacity assessment exercises depended on four factors: (i) support from senior leadership and collaborators, (ii) a common understanding of HSR, (iii) adequate human and financial resources for the exercise, and (iv) availability of data. Methods of extracting information from the results of the assessments, however, were tailored to the unique objectives of each SPH. This institutional HSR capacity assessment tool and the process for its utilization may be valuable for any SPH. The self-assessments, as well as interviews with external stakeholders, provided diverse sources of input and galvanized interest around HSR at multiple levels.

Impact of climate change on electricity systems and markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandramowli, Shankar N.

Climate change poses a serious threat to human welfare. There is now unequivocal scientific evidence that human actions are the primary cause of climate change. The principal climate forcing factor is the increasing accumulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) due to combustion of fossil fuels for transportation and electricity generation. Generation of electricity account for nearly one-third of the greenhouse (GHG) emissions globally (on a CO2-equivalent basis). Any kind of economy-wide mitigation or adaptation effort to climate change must have a prominent focus on the electric power sector. I have developed a capacity expansion model for the power sector called LP-CEM (Linear Programming based Capacity Expansion Model). LP-CEM incorporates both the long-term climate change effects and the state/regional-level macroeconomic trends. This modeling framework is demonstrated for the electric power system in the Northeast region of United States. Some of the methodological advances introduced in this research are: the use of high-resolution temperature projections in a power sector capacity expansion model; the incorporation of changes in sectoral composition of electricity demand over time; the incorporation of the effects of climate change and variability on both the demand and supply-side of power sector using parameters estimated in the literature; and an inter-model coupling link with a macroeconomic model to account for price elasticity of demand and other effects on the broader macro-economy. LP-CEM-type models can be of use to state/regional level policymakers to plan for future mitigation and adaptation measures for the electric power sector. From the simulation runs, it is shown that scenarios with climate change effects and with high economic growth rates have resulted in higher capacity addition, optimal supply costs, wholesale/retail prices and total ratepayers' costs. LP-CEM is also adapted to model the implications of the proposed Clean Power Plan (Section 111 (d)) rules for the U.S. Northeast region. This dissertation applies an analytical model and an optimization model to investigate the implications of co-implementing an emission cap and an RPS policy for this region. A simplified analytical model of LP-CEM is specified and the first order optimality conditions are derived. The results from this analytical model are corroborated by running LP-CEM simulations under different carbon cap and RPS policy assumptions. A combination of these policies is shown to have a long-term beneficial effect for the final ratepayers in the region. This research conceptually explores the future implications of climate change and extreme weather events on the regional electricity market framework. The significant findings from this research and future policy considerations are discussed in the conclusion chapter.

Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zulkepli, Jafri, E-mail: zhjafri@uum.edu.my; Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal, E-mail: nhaslinda@uum.edu.my; Fong, Chan Hwa, E-mail: hfchan7623@yahoo.com

In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand frommore » the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.« less

The Relationship between Working Memory Capacity and L2 Oral Performance under Task-Based Careful Online Planning Condition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ahmadian, Mohammad Javad

2012-01-01

The study reported in this article aimed to investigate the way working memory capacity (WMC) interacts with careful online planning--a task-based implementation variable--to affect second language (L2) speech production. This issue is important to teachers, because it delves into one of the possible task-based implementation variables and thus…

An Examination of the Predictive Relationships of Self-Evaluation Capacity and Staff Competency on Strategic Planning in Hong Kong Aided Secondary Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheng, Eric C. K.

2011-01-01

This article aims to examine the predictive relationships of self-evaluation capacity and staff competency on the effect of strategic planning in aided secondary schools in Hong Kong. A quantitative questionnaire survey was compiled to collect data from principals of the participating schools. Confirmatory factor analysis and reliability tests…

No more freeways : urban land use-transportation dynamics without freeway capacity expansion

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

Observations of the various limitations of freeway capacity expansion have led to a provocative planning and policy question What if we : completely stop building additional freeway capacity. From a theoretical perspective, as a freeway transport...

The Changing Science of Urban Transportation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloster, Tom

2010-03-01

The last half of the 20th Century was the age of the automobile, and the development of bigger and faster roads defined urban planning for more than 50 years. During this period, transportation planners developed sophisticated behavior models to help predict future travel patterns in an attempt to keep pace with ever-growing congestion and public demand for more roads. By the 1990s, however, it was clear that eliminating congestion with new road capacity was an unattainable outcome, and had unintended effects that were never considered when the automobile era first emerged. Today, public expectations are rapidly evolving beyond ``building our way out'' of congestion, and toward more complex definitions of desired outcomes in transportation planning. In this new century, planners must improve behavior models to predict not only the travel patterns of the future, but also the subsequent environmental, social and public health effects associated with growth and changes in travel behavior, and provide alternative transportation solutions that respond to these broader outcomes.

Operations research in intensive care unit management: a literature review.

PubMed

Bai, Jie; Fügener, Andreas; Schoenfelder, Jan; Brunner, Jens O

2018-03-01

The intensive care unit (ICU) is a crucial and expensive resource largely affected by uncertainty and variability. Insufficient ICU capacity causes many negative effects not only in the ICU itself, but also in other connected departments along the patient care path. Operations research/management science (OR/MS) plays an important role in identifying ways to manage ICU capacities efficiently and in ensuring desired levels of service quality. As a consequence, numerous papers on the topic exist. The goal of this paper is to provide the first structured literature review on how OR/MS may support ICU management. We start our review by illustrating the important role the ICU plays in the hospital patient flow. Then we focus on the ICU management problem (single department management problem) and classify the literature from multiple angles, including decision horizons, problem settings, and modeling and solution techniques. Based on the classification logic, research gaps and opportunities are highlighted, e.g., combining bed capacity planning and personnel scheduling, modeling uncertainty with non-homogenous distribution functions, and exploring more efficient solution approaches.

45 CFR 225.2 - State plan requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... personnel of which subprofessional staff are an integral part; (3) A career service plan permitting persons... planning capacities and service provision; (3) A program for organized training and supervision of such...

45 CFR 225.2 - State plan requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... personnel of which subprofessional staff are an integral part; (3) A career service plan permitting persons... planning capacities and service provision; (3) A program for organized training and supervision of such...

45 CFR 225.2 - State plan requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... personnel of which subprofessional staff are an integral part; (3) A career service plan permitting persons... planning capacities and service provision; (3) A program for organized training and supervision of such...

Resource Allocation Algorithms for the Next Generation Cellular Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amzallag, David; Raz, Danny

This chapter describes recent results addressing resource allocation problems in the context of current and future cellular technologies. We present models that capture several fundamental aspects of planning and operating these networks, and develop new approximation algorithms providing provable good solutions for the corresponding optimization problems. We mainly focus on two families of problems: cell planning and cell selection. Cell planning deals with choosing a network of base stations that can provide the required coverage of the service area with respect to the traffic requirements, available capacities, interference, and the desired QoS. Cell selection is the process of determining the cell(s) that provide service to each mobile station. Optimizing these processes is an important step towards maximizing the utilization of current and future cellular networks.

Assessment of lake sensitivity to acidic deposition in national parks of the Rocky Mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nanus, L.; Williams, M.W.; Campbell, D.H.; Tonnessen, K.A.; Blett, T.; Clow, D.W.

2009-01-01

The sensitivity of high-elevation lakes to acidic deposition was evaluated in five national parks of the Rocky Mountains based on statistical relations between lake acid-neutralizing capacity concentrations and basin characteristics. Acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC) of 151 lakes sampled during synoptic surveys and basin-characteristic information derived from geographic information system (GIS) data sets were used to calibrate the statistical models. The explanatory basin variables that were considered included topographic parameters, bedrock type, and vegetation type. A logistic regression model was developed, and modeling results were cross-validated through lake sampling during fall 2004 at 58 lakes. The model was applied to lake basins greater than 1 ha in area in Glacier National Park (n = 244 lakes), Grand Teton National Park (n = 106 lakes), Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve (n = 11 lakes), Rocky Mountain National Park (n = 114 lakes), and Yellowstone National Park (n = 294 lakes). Lakes that had a high probability of having an ANC concentration 3000 m, with 80% of the catchment bedrock having low buffering capacity. The modeling results indicate that the most sensitive lakes are located in Rocky Mountain National Park and Grand Teton National Park. This technique for evaluating the lake sensitivity to acidic deposition is useful for designing long-term monitoring plans and is potentially transferable to other remote mountain areas of the United States and the world.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishnan, Venkat; Cole, Wesley

This poster is based on the paper of the same name, presented at the IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting, July18, 2016. Power sector capacity expansion models (CEMs) have a broad range of spatial resolutions. This paper uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a long-term national scale electric sector CEM, to evaluate the value of high spatial resolution for CEMs. ReEDS models the United States with 134 load balancing areas (BAs) and captures the variability in existing generation parameters, future technology costs, performance, and resource availability using very high spatial resolution data, especially for wind and solarmore » modeled at 356 resource regions. In this paper we perform planning studies at three different spatial resolutions - native resolution (134 BAs), state-level, and NERC region level - and evaluate how results change under different levels of spatial aggregation in terms of renewable capacity deployment and location, associated transmission builds, and system costs. The results are used to ascertain the value of high geographically resolved models in terms of their impact on relative competitiveness among renewable energy resources.« less

Increasing Energy Access in Sub-Saharan Africa: Exploring Public-Private Models for Intervention

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bazilian, Morgan; Pless, Jacquelyn

This report, by Morgan Bazilian and Jacquelyn Pless, examines ways that Energy+ could make a large impact in providing energy access to the poor, focusing on four promising models. While there remains a focus on a technology (PV), and a region (SSA) in this report, the models the authors explore are amenable to other specifications as well. Thus, the models presented provide an opportunity for stakeholders and the international community to collaborate and leverage capacities, resources, and networks. Of course, these models are only a few of the very wide range of possible mechanisms. They also are somewhat focused onmore » engaging the private sector. The report does not provide a full context for the complex landscape of energy access and energy poverty. Rather, the paper is focused around the specifics of the interventions. It remains the case that the fundamental building blocks of capacity building, good governance and planning, and the ability to find funding for 'upfront' due diligence and analysis remain critical. Those items are, however, largely outside the scope of this short report.« less

Integrated Canada-U.S. Power Sector Modeling with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martinez, A.; Eurek, K.; Mai, T.

2013-02-01

The electric power system in North America is linked between the United States and Canada. Canada has historically been a net exporter of electricity to the United States. The extent to which this remains true will depend on the future evolution of power markets, technology deployment, and policies. To evaluate these and related questions, we modify the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to include an explicit representation of the grid-connected power system in Canada to the continental United States. ReEDS is unique among long-term capacity expansion models for its high spatial resolution and statistical treatment of the impact ofmore » variable renewable generation on capacity planning and dispatch. These unique traits are extended to new Canadian regions. We present example scenario results using the fully integrated Canada-U.S. version of ReEDS to demonstrate model capabilities. The newly developed, integrated Canada-U.S. ReEDS model can be used to analyze the dynamics of electricity transfers and other grid services between the two countries under different scenarios.« less

Admission and capacity planning for the implementation of one-stop-shop in skin cancer treatment using simulation-based optimization.

PubMed

Romero, H L; Dellaert, N P; van der Geer, S; Frunt, M; Jansen-Vullers, M H; Krekels, G A M

2013-03-01

Hospitals and health care institutions are facing the challenge of improving the quality of their services while reducing their costs. The current study presents the application of operations management practices in a dermatology oncology outpatient clinic specialized in skin cancer treatment. An interesting alternative considered by the clinic is the implementation of a one-stop-shop concept for the treatment of new patients diagnosed with basal cell carcinoma. This alternative proposes a significant improvement in the average waiting time that a patient spends between the diagnosis and treatment. This study is focused on the identification of factors that influence the average throughput time of patients treated in the clinic from the logistic perspective. A two-phase approach was followed to achieve the goals stated in this study. The first phase included an integrated approach for the deterministic analysis of the capacity using a demand-supply model for the hospital processes, while the second phase involved the development of a simulation model to include variability to the activities involved in the process and to evaluate different scenarios. Results showed that by managing three factors: the admission rule, resources allocation and capacity planning in the dermato-oncology unit throughput times for treatments of new patients can be decreased with more than 90 %, even with the same resource level. Finally, a pilot study with 16 patients was also conducted to evaluate the impact of implementing the one stop shop concept from a clinical perspective. Patients turned out to be satisfied with the fast diagnosis and treatment.

Recreation Carrying Capacity Handbook Methods and Techniques for Planning, Design, and Management.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-07-01

0 CU U ___ Imp W B’ m Type of Wildlife 1’ 0 -0 0 a 0 0 0 Type of Vegetation 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 00 rAmount of Tree Cover/Shade of 0 l 0 010 is Is Type...Thorough identification and clarifi- Emphasize controlling vehicle Identifying And Clarifying cation of management objectives re- use rather than... identification and clarifi- planners and resource managers cation of management objectives per- early in the master planning process Plan so the capacity

Capacity Assurance - A Twenty Year Planning Tool for the Future Management of Hazardous Waste

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page contains information about the assessment of national capacity is intended to reflect the reality of waste flows and needs for future management capacity along with the 2015 report, previous reports, and supporting documents

Understanding Preservice Teacher Skills to Construct Lesson Plans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lim, Woong; Son, Ji-Won; Kim, Dong-Joong

2018-01-01

This study examined preservice teachers' (PSTs) capacity for lesson planning in a university-based teacher preparation program in the USA Participants (n = 126) wrote lesson plans in three approaches: synthesis, creation, and modification. Findings indicate that PSTs who modified preexisting lesson plans produced better lesson plans than their…

Long-term power generation expansion planning with short-term demand response: Model, algorithms, implementation, and electricity policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, Timo

Electric sector models are powerful tools that guide policy makers and stakeholders. Long-term power generation expansion planning models are a prominent example and determine a capacity expansion for an existing power system over a long planning horizon. With the changes in the power industry away from monopolies and regulation, the focus of these models has shifted to competing electric companies maximizing their profit in a deregulated electricity market. In recent years, consumers have started to participate in demand response programs, actively influencing electricity load and price in the power system. We introduce a model that features investment and retirement decisions over a long planning horizon of more than 20 years, as well as an hourly representation of day-ahead electricity markets in which sellers of electricity face buyers. This combination makes our model both unique and challenging to solve. Decomposition algorithms, and especially Benders decomposition, can exploit the model structure. We present a novel method that can be seen as an alternative to generalized Benders decomposition and relies on dynamic linear overestimation. We prove its finite convergence and present computational results, demonstrating its superiority over traditional approaches. In certain special cases of our model, all necessary solution values in the decomposition algorithms can be directly calculated and solving mathematical programming problems becomes entirely obsolete. This leads to highly efficient algorithms that drastically outperform their programming problem-based counterparts. Furthermore, we discuss the implementation of all tailored algorithms and the challenges from a modeling software developer's standpoint, providing an insider's look into the modeling language GAMS. Finally, we apply our model to the Texas power system and design two electricity policies motivated by the U.S. Environment Protection Agency's recently proposed CO2 emissions targets for the power sector.

The impact of non-IPA HMOs on the number of hospitals and hospital capacity.

PubMed

Chernew, M

1995-01-01

Concentration in the hospital market could limit the success of health care reform strategies that rely on managed care to constrain costs. Hospital market capacity also is important because capacity affects both costs and the degree of price competition. Because managed care plans, particularly non-individual practice association (non-IPA) model HMOs, practice a less hospital-intensive style of care, consolidation and downsizing in the hospital market potentially will accompany managed care growth, influencing the long-run effectiveness of managed care cost-containment strategies. Using Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) data from 1982 and 1987, a 10-percentage point increase in non-IPA HMO market share is estimated to reduce the number of hospitals by about 4%, causing an approximate 5% reduction in the number of hospital beds. No statistically significant relationship is found between non-IPA HMO penetration rates and hospital occupancy rates.

Incorporating GIS data into an agent-based model to support planning policy making for the development of creative industries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Helin; Silva, Elisabete A.; Wang, Qian

2016-07-01

This paper presents an extension to the agent-based model "Creative Industries Development-Urban Spatial Structure Transformation" by incorporating GIS data. Three agent classes, creative firms, creative workers and urban government, are considered in the model, and the spatial environment represents a set of GIS data layers (i.e. road network, key housing areas, land use). With the goal to facilitate urban policy makers to draw up policies locally and optimise the land use assignment in order to support the development of creative industries, the improved model exhibited its capacity to assist the policy makers conducting experiments and simulating different policy scenarios to see the corresponding dynamics of the spatial distributions of creative firms and creative workers across time within a city/district. The spatiotemporal graphs and maps record the simulation results and can be used as a reference by the policy makers to adjust land use plans adaptively at different stages of the creative industries' development process.

CPE--A New Perspective: The Impact of the Technology Revolution. Proceedings of the Computer Performance Evaluation Users Group Meeting (19th, San Francisco, California, October 25-28, 1983). Final Report. Reports on Computer Science and Technology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mobray, Deborah, Ed.

Papers on local area networks (LANs), modelling techniques, software improvement, capacity planning, software engineering, microcomputers and end user computing, cost accounting and chargeback, configuration and performance management, and benchmarking presented at this conference include: (1) "Theoretical Performance Analysis of Virtual…

Electricity Market Module - NEMS Documentation

EIA Publications

2017-01-01

Documents the Electricity Market Module as it was used for the Annual Energy Outlook. The Electricity Market Module (EMM) is the electricity supply component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The EMM represents the generation, transmission, and pricing of electricity. It consists of four submodules: the Electricity Capacity Planning (ECP) Submodule, the Electricity Fuel Dispatch (EFD) Submodule, the Electricity Finance and Pricing (EFP) Submodule, and the Electricity Load and Demand (ELD) Submodule.

Incorporating Model Parameter Uncertainty into Prostate IMRT Treatment Planning

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-04-01

HD HJ. Fractionation in radiotherapy. London: Taylor & Francis, 1987. 8. Withers HR. Biologic basis for altered fractionation schemes. Cancer 1985; 55...of combined agent regimens. Int J Radiat Biol 1990; 57: 709-722. 15. Thames HD , Jr., Withers HR, Peters LJ, Fletcher GH. Changes in early and late...Oncology, Biology, Physics 2001; 50: 551-560. 30. Turesson I, Thames HD . Repair capacity and kinetics of human skin during fractionated radiotherapy

Financial constraints in capacity planning: a national utility regulatory model (NUREG). Volume III of III: software description. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

1981-10-29

This volume is the software description for the National Utility Regulatory Model (NUREG). This is the third of three volumes provided by ICF under contract number DEAC-01-79EI-10579. These three volumes are: a manual describing the NUREG methodology; a users guide; and a description of the software. This manual describes the software which has been developed for NUREG. This includes a listing of the source modules. All computer code has been written in FORTRAN.

A heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing model for solving the LPG distribution problem: A case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onut, S.; Kamber, M. R.; Altay, G.

2014-03-01

Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) is an important management problem in the field of distribution and logistics. In VRPs, routes from a distribution point to geographically distributed points are designed with minimum cost and considering customer demands. All points should be visited only once and by one vehicle in one route. Total demand in one route should not exceed the capacity of the vehicle that assigned to that route. VRPs are varied due to real life constraints related to vehicle types, number of depots, transportation conditions and time periods, etc. Heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing problem is a kind of VRP that vehicles have different capacity and costs. There are two types of vehicles in our problem. In this study, it is used the real world data and obtained from a company that operates in LPG sector in Turkey. An optimization model is established for planning daily routes and assigned vehicles. The model is solved by GAMS and optimal solution is found in a reasonable time.

Predicting the distribution of bed material accumulation using river network sediment budgets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkinson, Scott N.; Prosser, Ian P.; Hughes, Andrew O.

2006-10-01

Assessing the spatial distribution of bed material accumulation in river networks is important for determining the impacts of erosion on downstream channel form and habitat and for planning erosion and sediment management. A model that constructs spatially distributed budgets of bed material sediment is developed to predict the locations of accumulation following land use change. For each link in the river network, GIS algorithms are used to predict bed material supply from gullies, river banks, and upstream tributaries and to compare total supply with transport capacity. The model is tested in the 29,000 km2 Murrumbidgee River catchment in southeast Australia. It correctly predicts the presence or absence of accumulation in 71% of river links, which is significantly better performance than previous models, which do not account for spatial variability in sediment supply and transport capacity. Representing transient sediment storage is important for predicting smaller accumulations. Bed material accumulation is predicted in 25% of the river network, indicating its importance as an environmental problem in Australia.

On representation of temporal variability in electricity capacity planning models

DOE PAGES

Merrick, James H.

2016-08-23

This study systematically investigates how to represent intra-annual temporal variability in models of optimum electricity capacity investment. Inappropriate aggregation of temporal resolution can introduce substantial error into model outputs and associated economic insight. The mechanisms underlying the introduction of this error are shown. How many representative periods are needed to fully capture the variability is then investigated. For a sample dataset, a scenario-robust aggregation of hourly (8760) resolution is possible in the order of 10 representative hours when electricity demand is the only source of variability. The inclusion of wind and solar supply variability increases the resolution of the robustmore » aggregation to the order of 1000. A similar scale of expansion is shown for representative days and weeks. These concepts can be applied to any such temporal dataset, providing, at the least, a benchmark that any other aggregation method can aim to emulate. Finally, how prior information about peak pricing hours can potentially reduce resolution further is also discussed.« less

On representation of temporal variability in electricity capacity planning models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Merrick, James H.

This study systematically investigates how to represent intra-annual temporal variability in models of optimum electricity capacity investment. Inappropriate aggregation of temporal resolution can introduce substantial error into model outputs and associated economic insight. The mechanisms underlying the introduction of this error are shown. How many representative periods are needed to fully capture the variability is then investigated. For a sample dataset, a scenario-robust aggregation of hourly (8760) resolution is possible in the order of 10 representative hours when electricity demand is the only source of variability. The inclusion of wind and solar supply variability increases the resolution of the robustmore » aggregation to the order of 1000. A similar scale of expansion is shown for representative days and weeks. These concepts can be applied to any such temporal dataset, providing, at the least, a benchmark that any other aggregation method can aim to emulate. Finally, how prior information about peak pricing hours can potentially reduce resolution further is also discussed.« less

An analysis of land use planning and equity issues surrounding hazardous liquid and natural gas transmission pipelines in North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osland, Anna Christine

Hazardous liquid and natural gas transmission pipelines have received limited attention by planning scholars even though local development decisions can have broad consequences if a rupture occurs. In this dissertation, I evaluated the implications of land-use planning for reducing risk to transmission pipeline hazards in North Carolina via three investigations. First, using a survey of planning directors in jurisdictions with transmission pipeline hazards, I investigated the land use planning tools used to mitigate pipeline hazards and the factors associated with tool adoption. Planning scholars have documented the difficulty of inducing planning in hazardous areas, yet there remain gaps in knowledge about the factors associated with tool adoption. Despite the risks associated with pipeline ruptures, I found most localities use few mitigation tools, and the adoption of regulatory and informational tools appear to be influenced by divergent factors. Whereas risk perception, commitment, capacity, and community context were associated with total tool and information tool use, only risk perception and capacity factors were associated with regulatory tool use. Second, using interviews of emergency managers and planning directors, I examined the role of agency collaboration for building mitigation capacity. Scholars have highlighted the potential of technical collaboration, yet less research has investigated how inter-agency collaboration shapes mitigation capacity. I identify three categories of technical collaboration, discuss how collaborative spillovers can occur from one planning area to another, and challenge the notion that all technical collaborations result in equal mitigation outcomes. Third, I evaluated characteristics of the population near pipelines to address equity concerns. Surprisingly, I did not find broad support for differences in exposure of vulnerable populations. Nonetheless, my analyses uncovered statistically significant clusters of vulnerable groups within the hazard area. Interestingly, development closer to pipelines was newer than areas farther away, illustrating the failure of land-use planning to reduce development encroachment. Collectively, these results highlight the potential of land-use planning to keep people and development from encroaching on pipeline hazards. While this study indicates that planners in many areas address pipeline hazards, it also illustrates how changes to local practices can further reduce risks to human health, homeland security, and the environment.

School Capacity. Educational Facility Series; A Guide to Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

New Jersey State Dept. of Education, Trenton. Bureau of School Planning Services.

Information, instructions and worksheets are provided for use in computing the functional capacity of an elementary, middle or secondary school building. The functional capacity is the number of pupils that can adequately be housed in a school building without overcrowding. (FS)

Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): implementation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucio, Filipe

2013-04-01

The Extraordinary Session of the World Meteorological Congress, held from 29 to 31 October 2012, adopted the Implementation Plan of the Global Framework for Climate Services, for the subsequent consideration by the Intergovernmental Board on Climate Services, which will host its first session in July 2013. The Extraordinary Congress called for an immediate move to action, so that the work undertaken can result in activities on the ground which will benefit, in particular, vulnerable countries. The development of the GFCS through a broad consultation process accross the pillars of the GFCS (User Interface Platform; Observations and Monitoring; Climate Services Information System; Research, Modelling and Prediction; and Capacity Development) and the initial four priority areas (Agriculture and Food Security; Water; Health and Disaster Risk Reductio) identified a number of challenges, which in some cases constitute barries to implementation: - Accessibility: many countries do not have climate services at all, and all countries have scope to improve access to such services; - Capacity: many countries lack the capacity to anticipate and managed climate-related risks and opportunities; - Data: the current availability and quality of climate observations and impacts data are inadequate for large parts of the globe; - Partnerships: mechanisms to enhance interaction between climate users and providers are not always well developed, and user requirements are not always adequately understood and addressed; - Quality: operational climate services are lagging advances in climate and applications science, and the spatial and temporal resolution of information to support decision-making is often insufficient to match user requirements. To address these challenges, the Implementation Plan of the GFCS identified initial implementation projects and activities. The initial priority is to establish the leadership and management capacity to take the GFCS forward at all levels. Capacity development is seen as the critical element to build the foundation for progress. This includes but not limited to: - Linking climate services users and providers, e.g., through User Interface mechanisms; - Developing capacities at national level; - Strengthening regional climate capabilities. Taking advantage of exhausting mechanisms and others under planning the GFCS offers an adequate platform for coordination and integration of efforts towards effective action to deliver user tailored climate services. This paper will provide details on the implementation approach of the GFCS and highlight progress made thus far.

The Ohio Cross-Cultural Tobacco Control Alliance: Understanding and Eliminating Tobacco-Related Disparities Through the Integration of Science, Practice, and Policy

PubMed Central

Adhikari, Surendra B.; Clopton, Tracy M.; Oches, Barry; Jensen, Conrado

2010-01-01

Objectives. We examined the development of a process designed to eliminate tobacco-related disparities in the state of Ohio and described how a cross-cultural work group used a multicomponent community planning process to develop capacity to address such disparities. Methods. The community development model was used as a guide in the planning process. We employed a case study, focus groups, and telephone interviews to assess the process and collect data on tobacco use and awareness. We also employed the appreciative inquiry framework to create the organizational design for the Ohio Cross-Cultural Tobacco Control Alliance (CCTCA), which was formed from the cross-cultural work group and charged with addressing tobacco-related disparities in the state. Results. Data on tobacco use and awareness were collected from 13 underserved populations. At the end of the planning process, the CCTCA was initiated along with structural capacity to serve as a new program incubator highlighting tobacco use and awareness levels in these populations. Conclusions. The CCTCA appeared to be an effective way to begin mobilizing agencies serving underserved populations by providing an operational structure to address tobacco-related disparities. The alliance also successfully implemented culturally competent community-based programs and policies to help eliminate disparities. PMID:20147668

Investigation of the Impact of User Gaming in the Next Generation National Airspace System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunter, George C.; Gao, Huina

2011-01-01

Over the past three decades, growth in the demand for air transportation has exceeded the growth in the national airspace system (NAS) capacity. Systems operating near capacity inevitably have delays and NAS d elays have increased in recent years. The desire to minimize delay costs has placed attention on the NAS air traffic management (ATM) syste m.One initiative that has helped to provide user representation in the ATM solution is the collaborative decision making (CDM) process. CDM addresses this issue by bringing users (referred to here as airline operation centers [AOCs]) and ATM providers together for information e xchange and cooperative planning. Such cooperative planning has been instituted, for instance, for the purpose of planning airport slot control strategies and rerouting strategies. While the CDM initiatives ha ve met with much success, they have also introduced the potential for AOCs to manipulate the system in unforeseen, unintended, and perhaps undesirable ways, from a system-wide, synoptic perspective. This type of manipulation is sometimes referred to as "gaming" the system. This study uses a high-fidelity simulation tool to investigate several models of user decision making behavior which could be considered to be gaming behavior and the emergent system dynamics and interactions between AOCs and traffic management.

Building the capacity of health authorities to influence land use and transportation planning: Lessons learned from the Healthy Canada by Design CLASP Project in British Columbia.

PubMed

Miro, Alice; Perrotta, Kim; Evans, Heather; Kishchuk, Natalie A; Gram, Claire; Stanwick, Richard S; Swinkels, Helena M

2014-08-06

The main objective of the Healthy Canada by Design CLASP Initiative in British Columbia (BC) was to develop, implement and evaluate a capacity-building project for health authorities. The desired outcomes of the project were as follows: 1) increased capacity of the participating health authorities to productively engage in land use and transportation planning processes; 2) new and sustained relationships or collaborations among the participating health authorities and among health authorities, local governments and other built environment stakeholders; and 3) indication of health authority influence and/or application of health evidence and tools in land use and transportation plans and policies. This project was designed to enhance the capacity of three regional health authorities, namely Fraser Health, Island Health and Vancouver Coastal Health, and their staff. These were considered the project's participants. The BC regions served by the three health authorities cover the urban, suburban and rural spectrum across relatively large and diverse geographic areas. The populations have broad ranges in socio-economic status, demographic profiles and cultural and political backgrounds. The Initiative provided the three health authorities with a consultant who had several years of experience working on land use and transportation planning. The consultant conducted situational assessments to understand the baseline knowledge and skill gaps, assets and objectives for built environment work for each of the participating health authorities. On the basis of this information, the consultant developed customized capacity-building work plans for each of the health authorities and assisted them with implementation. Capacity-building activities were as follows: researching health and built environment strategies, policies and evidence; transferring health evidence and promising policies and practices from other jurisdictions to local planning contexts; providing training and support with regard to health and the built environment to health authority staff; bringing together public health staff with local planners for networking; and participating in land use planning processes. The project helped to expand the capacity of participating health authorities to influence land use and transportation planning decisions by increasing the content and process expertise of public health staff. The project informed structural changes within health authorities, such as staffing reallocations to advance built environment work after the project. Health authorities also forged new relationships within and across sectors, which facilitated knowledge exchange and access of the public health sector to opportunities to influence built environment decisions. By the end of the project, there was emerging evidence of a health presence in land use policy documents. The project helped to prioritize, accelerate and formalize the participating health authorities' involvement in land use and transportation planning processes. In the long term, this is expected to lead to health policies and programs that consider the built environment, and to built environment policies and practices that integrate population health goals, thereby reducing the risk of chronic diseases.

A proposed simulation optimization model framework for emergency department problems in public hospital

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, Ireen Munira; Liong, Choong-Yeun; Bakar, Sakhinah Abu; Ahmad, Norazura; Najmuddin, Ahmad Farid

2015-12-01

The Emergency Department (ED) is a very complex system with limited resources to support increase in demand. ED services are considered as good quality if they can meet the patient's expectation. Long waiting times and length of stay is always the main problem faced by the management. The management of ED should give greater emphasis on their capacity of resources in order to increase the quality of services, which conforms to patient satisfaction. This paper is a review of work in progress of a study being conducted in a government hospital in Selangor, Malaysia. This paper proposed a simulation optimization model framework which is used to study ED operations and problems as well as to find an optimal solution to the problems. The integration of simulation and optimization is hoped can assist management in decision making process regarding their resource capacity planning in order to improve current and future ED operations.

Enhanced Primary Care Treatment of Behavioral Disorders With ECHO Case-Based Learning.

PubMed

Komaromy, Miriam; Bartlett, Judy; Manis, Kathryn; Arora, Sanjeev

2017-09-01

The Extension for Community Healthcare Outcomes (ECHO) model offers a way for primary care providers to develop expertise in addressing behavioral health issues of primary care patients. It provides an alternative to traditional continuing medical education (CME) for ongoing training and support for health care providers. ECHO uses videoconferencing to connect multiple primary care teams simultaneously with academic specialists and builds capacity via mentorship and case-based learning. ECHO aims to expand access to care by developing capacity to treat common, complex conditions in underserved areas. Participants in an integrated addictions and psychiatry teleECHO program reported that when they presented a patient case, the feedback they received was highly valuable and led them to change their care plans more than 75% of the time. ECHO is an effective model for teaching primary care teams about behavioral health and may be more effective than traditional CME approaches.

Problem in application carrying capacity approach for land allocation assessment in Indonesian municipal spatial planning: A case of Kutai Kartanegara Regency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijaya, I. N. S.; Rahadi, B.; Lusiana, N.; Maulidina, I.

2017-06-01

Urbanization in many countries, such as Indonesia, is commonly appeared as a dynamic population of developed areas. It is followed with reducing rural uses of land for improving urban land uses such as housing, industry, infrastructure, etc. in response to the growth of population. One may not be sufficiently considered by the urban planners and the decision makers, urbanization also means escalation of natural resources consumption that should be supported by the natural capacity of the area. In this situation, balancing approach as carrying capacity calculation in spatial planning is needed for sustainability. Indonesian Spatial Planning Law 26/2007 has already expressed about the balance approach in the system. Moreover, it strictly regulates the assessment and the permission system in controlling land development, especially for the conversion. However, the reductions over the rural uses of land, especially agriculture, are continuously occurred. Concerning the planning approach, this paper aims to disclose common insufficiency of carrying capacity considerations in Indonesian spatial planning practice. This paper describes common calculation weaknesses in projecting area for the urban development by recalculating the actual gap between supply and demand of agriculture land areas. Here, municipal spatial plan of Kutai Kartanegara Regency is utilized as single sample case to discuss. As the result, the recalculation shows that: 1) there are serious deficit status of agriculture land areas in order to fulfil the demanded agriculture production for the existed population, 2) some calculation of agriculture production may be miss-interpreted because of insufficient explanation toward the productivity of each agriculture commodity.

Principles for Health System Capacity Planning: Insights for Healthcare Leaders.

PubMed

Shaw, James; Wong, Ivy; Griffin, Bailey; Robertson, Michael; Bhatia, R Sacha

2017-01-01

Jurisdictions across Canada and around the world face the challenge of planning high-performing and sustainable health systems in response to growing healthcare demands. In this paper, we report on the process of developing principles for health system capacity planning by the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care in Ontario. Integrating the results of a literature review on health system planning and a symposium with representatives from local health integration networks, we describe the following six principles in detail: (1) develop an aspirational vision, (2) establish clear leadership, (3) commit to stakeholder engagement, (4) engage patients and the public, (5) build analytics infrastructure and (6) revise policy when necessary.

50 CFR 600.1008 - Implementation plan and implementation regulations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Implementation plan and implementation... Capacity Reduction Framework § 600.1008 Implementation plan and implementation regulations. (a) As soon as... period, a proposed implementation plan and implementation regulations. During the public comment period...

StratBAM: A Discrete-Event Simulation Model to Support Strategic Hospital Bed Capacity Decisions.

PubMed

Devapriya, Priyantha; Strömblad, Christopher T B; Bailey, Matthew D; Frazier, Seth; Bulger, John; Kemberling, Sharon T; Wood, Kenneth E

2015-10-01

The ability to accurately measure and assess current and potential health care system capacities is an issue of local and national significance. Recent joint statements by the Institute of Medicine and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality have emphasized the need to apply industrial and systems engineering principles to improving health care quality and patient safety outcomes. To address this need, a decision support tool was developed for planning and budgeting of current and future bed capacity, and evaluating potential process improvement efforts. The Strategic Bed Analysis Model (StratBAM) is a discrete-event simulation model created after a thorough analysis of patient flow and data from Geisinger Health System's (GHS) electronic health records. Key inputs include: timing, quantity and category of patient arrivals and discharges; unit-level length of care; patient paths; and projected patient volume and length of stay. Key outputs include: admission wait time by arrival source and receiving unit, and occupancy rates. Electronic health records were used to estimate parameters for probability distributions and to build empirical distributions for unit-level length of care and for patient paths. Validation of the simulation model against GHS operational data confirmed its ability to model real-world data consistently and accurately. StratBAM was successfully used to evaluate the system impact of forecasted patient volumes and length of stay in terms of patient wait times, occupancy rates, and cost. The model is generalizable and can be appropriately scaled for larger and smaller health care settings.

A practical and systematic approach to organisational capacity strengthening for research in the health sector in Africa.

PubMed

Bates, Imelda; Boyd, Alan; Smith, Helen; Cole, Donald C

2014-03-03

Despite increasing investment in health research capacity strengthening efforts in low and middle income countries, published evidence to guide the systematic design and monitoring of such interventions is very limited. Systematic processes are important to underpin capacity strengthening interventions because they provide stepwise guidance and allow for continual improvement. Our objective here was to use evidence to inform the design of a replicable but flexible process to guide health research capacity strengthening that could be customized for different contexts, and to provide a framework for planning, collecting information, making decisions, and improving performance. We used peer-reviewed and grey literature to develop a five-step pathway for designing and evaluating health research capacity strengthening programmes, tested in a variety of contexts in Africa. The five steps are: i) defining the goal of the capacity strengthening effort, ii) describing the optimal capacity needed to achieve the goal, iii) determining the existing capacity gaps compared to the optimum, iv) devising an action plan to fill the gaps and associated indicators of change, and v) adapting the plan and indicators as the programme matures. Our paper describes three contrasting case studies of organisational research capacity strengthening to illustrate how our five-step approach works in practice. Our five-step pathway starts with a clear goal and objectives, making explicit the capacity required to achieve the goal. Strategies for promoting sustainability are agreed with partners and incorporated from the outset. Our pathway for designing capacity strengthening programmes focuses not only on technical, managerial, and financial processes within organisations, but also on the individuals within organisations and the wider system within which organisations are coordinated, financed, and managed. Our five-step approach is flexible enough to generate and utilise ongoing learning. We have tested and critiqued our approach in a variety of organisational settings in the health sector in sub-Saharan Africa, but it needs to be applied and evaluated in other sectors and continents to determine the extent of transferability.

Does Assisted Living Capacity Influence Case Mix at Nursing Homes?

PubMed

Clement, Jan P; Khushalani, Jaya

2015-01-01

Assisted living facilities (ALFs) have grown over the past few decades. If they attract residents with lower care needs away from nursing homes (NHs), NHs may be left with higher case mix residents. We study the relationship between ALF bed market capacity and NH case mix in a state (Virginia) where ALF bed capacity stabilized after a period of growth. Similarly, NH capacity and use had been stable. While it is interesting to study markets in flux, for planning purposes, it is also important to examine what happens after periods of turbulence and adaptation. Our findings show some substitution of ALF for NH care, but the relationship is not linear with ALF market capacity. Communities need to consider the interplay of ALFs and NHs in planning for long-term care services and supports. Policies supporting ALFs may enable care needs to be met in a lower cost setting than the NH.

Choosing to Win: How Sof Can Better Select Partners for Capacity Building

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

countries will yield the best results when SOF are employed to build capacity. This thesis uses two RAND reports—What Works Best When Building...environment, planners will be forced to make difficult decisions about which countries will yield the best results when SOF are employed to build...deliberate planning, global posture, global force management, and nuclear weapons planning.20 The GEF also directs the combatant commanders to

Using the Program Sustainability Assessment Tool to Assess and Plan for Sustainability

PubMed Central

Mainor, Avia; Moreland-Russell, Sarah; Maier, Ryan C.; Brossart, Laura; Luke, Douglas A.

2014-01-01

Implementing and growing a public health program that benefits society takes considerable time and effort. To ensure that positive outcomes are maintained over time, program managers and stakeholders should plan and implement activities to build sustainability capacity within their programs. We describe a 3-part sustainability planning process that programs can follow to build their sustainability capacity. First, program staff and stakeholders take the Program Sustainability Assessment Tool to measure their program’s sustainability across 8 domains. Next, managers and stakeholders use results from the assessment to inform and prioritize sustainability action planning. Lastly, staff members implement the plan and keep track of progress toward their sustainability goals. Through this process, staff can more holistically address the internal and external challenges and pressures associated with sustaining a program. We include a case example of a chronic disease program that completed the Program Sustainability Assessment Tool and engaged in program sustainability planning. PMID:24456644

Heard and valued: the development of a model to meaningfully engage marginalized populations in health services planning.

PubMed

Snow, M Elizabeth; Tweedie, Katherine; Pederson, Ann

2018-03-15

Recently, patient engagement has been identified as a promising strategy for supporting healthcare planning. However, the context and structure of universalistic, "one-size-fits-all" approaches often used for patient engagement may not enable diverse patients to participate in decision-making about programs intended to meet their needs. Specifically, standard patient engagement approaches are gender-blind and might not facilitate the engagement of those marginalized by, for example, substance use, low income, experiences of violence, homelessness, and/or mental health challenges-highly gendered health and social experiences. The project's purpose was to develop a heuristic model to assist planners to engage patients who are not traditionally included in healthcare planning. Using a qualitative research approach, we reviewed literature and conducted interviews with patients and healthcare planners regarding engaging marginalized populations in health services planning. From these inputs, we created a model and planning manual to assist healthcare planners to engage marginalized patients in health services planning, which we piloted in two clinical programs undergoing health services design. The findings from the pilots were used to refine the model. The analysis of the interviews and literature identified power and gender as barriers to participation, and generated suggestions to support diverse populations both to attend patient engagement events and to participate meaningfully. Engaging marginalized populations cannot be reduced to a single defined process, but instead needs to be understood as an iterative process of fitting engagement methods to a particular situation. Underlying this process are principles for meaningfully engaging marginalized people in healthcare planning. A one-size-fits-all approach to patient engagement is not appropriate given patients' diverse barriers to meaningful participation in healthcare planning. Instead, planners need a repertoire of skills and strategies to align the purpose of engagement with the capacities and needs of patient participants. Just as services need to meet diverse patients' needs, so too must patient engagement experiences.

Association of intervention outcomes with practice capacity for change: Subgroup analysis from a group randomized trial

PubMed Central

Litaker, David; Ruhe, Mary; Weyer, Sharon; Stange, Kurt C

2008-01-01

Background The relationship between health care practices' capacity for change and the results and sustainability of interventions to improve health care delivery is unclear. Methods In the setting of an intervention to increase preventive service delivery (PSD), we assessed practice capacity for change by rating motivation to change and instrumental ability to change on a one to four scale. After combining these ratings into a single score, random effects models tested its association with change in PSD rates from baseline to immediately after intervention completion and 12 months later. Results Our measure of practices' capacity for change varied widely at baseline (range 2–8; mean 4.8 ± 1.6). Practices with greater capacity for change delivered preventive services to eligible patients at higher rates after completion of the intervention (2.7% per unit increase in the combined effort score, p < 0.001). This relationship persisted for 12 months after the intervention ended (3.1%, p < 0.001). Conclusion Greater capacity for change is associated with a higher probability that a practice will attain and sustain desired outcomes. Future work to refine measures of this practice characteristic may be useful in planning and implementing interventions that result in sustained, evidence-based improvements in health care delivery. PMID:18485216

Functional capacity evaluation of work performance among individuals with pelvic injuries following motor vehicle accidents.

PubMed

Ratzon, Navah Z; Ari Shevil, Eynat Ben; Froom, Paul; Friedman, Sharon; Amit, Yehuda

2013-01-01

Pelvic injuries following motor vehicle accidents (MVA) cause disability and affect work capabilities. This study evaluated functional, self-report, and medical-based factors that could predict work capacity as was reflected in a functional capacity evaluation (FCE) among persons who sustained a pelvic injury. It was hypothesized that self-reported functional status and bio-demographic variables would predict work capacity. Sixty-one community-dwelling adults previously hospitalized following a MVA induced pelvic injury. FCE for work performance was conducted using the Physical Work Performance Evaluation (PWPE). Additional data was collected through a demographics questionnaire and the Functional Status Questionnaire. All participants underwent an orthopedic medical examination of the hip and lower extremities. Most participants self-reported that their work capacity post-injury were lower than their job required. PWPE scores indicated below-range functional performance. Regression models predicted 23% to 51% of PWPE subtests. Participants' self-report of functioning (instrumental activities of daily living and work) and bio-demographic variables (gender and age) were better predictors of PWPE scores than factors originating from the medical examination. Results support the inclusion of FCE, in addition to self-report of functioning and medical examination, to evaluate work capacity among individuals' post-pelvic injury and interventions and discharge planning.

E-HOSPITAL - A Digital Workbench for Hospital Operations and Services Planning Using Information Technology and Algebraic Languages.

PubMed

Gartner, Daniel; Padman, Rema

2017-01-01

In this paper, we describe the development of a unified framework and a digital workbench for the strategic, tactical and operational hospital management plan driven by information technology and analytics. The workbench can be used not only by multiple stakeholders in the healthcare delivery setting, but also for pedagogical purposes on topics such as healthcare analytics, services management, and information systems. This tool combines the three classical hierarchical decision-making levels in one integrated environment. At each level, several decision problems can be chosen. Extensions of mathematical models from the literature are presented and incorporated into the digital platform. In a case study using real-world data, we demonstrate how we used the workbench to inform strategic capacity planning decisions in a multi-hospital, multi-stakeholder setting in the United Kingdom.

Potential Impacts of Accelerated Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leung, L. R.; Vail, L. W.

2016-05-31

This research project is part of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research plan in support of developing a risk-informed licensing framework for flood hazards and design standards at proposed new facilities and significance determination tools for evaluating potential deficiencies related to flood protection at operating facilities. The PFHA plan aims to build upon recent advances in deterministic, probabilistic, and statistical modeling of extreme precipitation events to develop regulatory tools and guidance for NRC staff with regard to PFHA for nuclear facilities. The tools and guidance developed under the PFHA plan will support and enhancemore » NRC’s capacity to perform thorough and efficient reviews of license applications and license amendment requests. They will also support risk-informed significance determination of inspection findings, unusual events, and other oversight activities.« less

Rotation Capacity of Bolted Flush End-Plate Stiffened Beam-to-Column Connection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostrowski, Krzysztof; Kozłowski, Aleksander

2017-06-01

One of the flexibility parameters of semi-rigid joints is rotation capacity. Plastic rotation capacity is especially important in plastic design of framed structures. Current design codes, including Eurocode 3, do not posses procedures enabling designers to obtain value of rotation capacity. In the paper the calculation procedure of the rotation capacity for stiffened bolted flush end-plate beam-to-column connections has been proposed. Theory of experiment design was applied with the use of Hartley's PS/DS-P:Ha3 plan. The analysis was performed with the use of finite element method (ANSYS), based on the numerical experiment plan. The determination of maximal rotation angle was carried out with the use of regression analysis. The main variables analyzed in parametric study were: pitch of the bolt "w" (120-180 mm), the distance between the bolt axis and the beam upper edge cg1 (50-90 mm) and the thickness of the end-plate tp (10-20 mm). Power function was proposed to describe available rotation capacity of the joint. Influence of the particular components on the rotation capacity was also investigated. In the paper a general procedure for determination of rotation capacity was proposed.

[Evaluation of land resources carrying capacity of development zone based on planning environment impact assessment].

PubMed

Fu, Shi-Feng; Zhang, Ping; Jiang, Jin-Long

2012-02-01

Assessment of land resources carrying capacity is the key point of planning environment impact assessment and the main foundation to determine whether the planning could be implemented or not. With the help of the space analysis function of Geographic Information System, and selecting altitude, slope, land use type, distance from resident land, distance from main traffic roads, and distance from environmentally sensitive area as the sensitive factors, a comprehensive assessment on the ecological sensitivity and its spatial distribution in Zhangzhou Merchants Economic and Technological Development Zone, Fujian Province of East China was conducted, and the assessment results were combined with the planning land layout diagram for the ecological suitability analysis. In the Development Zone, 84.0% of resident land, 93.1% of industrial land, 86.0% of traffic land, and 76. 0% of other constructive lands in planning were located in insensitive and gently sensitive areas, and thus, the implement of the land use planning generally had little impact on the ecological environment, and the land resources in the planning area was able to meet the land use demand. The assessment of the population carrying capacity with ecological land as the limiting factor indicated that in considering the highly sensitive area and 60% of the moderately sensitive area as ecological land, the population within the Zone in the planning could reach 240000, and the available land area per capita could be 134.0 m2. Such a planned population scale is appropriate, according to the related standards of constructive land.

Developing and Testing TernCOLONY 1.0: An Individual-based Model of Least Tern Reproduction

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

interior population of the Least Tern nests primarily on riverine sandbars (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) 1990, Lott 2006). Consequently...Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). 1990. Recovery plan for the interior population of the Least Tern (~Sterna antillarum~). Twin Cities, MN. ERDC/EL...colony sites in the Keystone reach. The flow occurring in normal hydropower operations (both turbines at Keystone Dam operating at capacity for

Assessing spatial uncertainty in reservoir characterization for carbon sequestration planning using public well-log data: A case study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Venteris, E.R.; Carter, K.M.

2009-01-01

Mapping and characterization of potential geologic reservoirs are key components in planning carbon dioxide (CO2) injection projects. The geometry of target and confining layers is vital to ensure that the injected CO2 remains in a supercritical state and is confined to the target layer. Also, maps of injection volume (porosity) are necessary to estimate sequestration capacity at undrilled locations. Our study uses publicly filed geophysical logs and geostatistical modeling methods to investigate the reliability of spatial prediction for oil and gas plays in the Medina Group (sandstone and shale facies) in northwestern Pennsylvania. Specifically, the modeling focused on two targets: the Grimsby Formation and Whirlpool Sandstone. For each layer, thousands of data points were available to model structure and thickness but only hundreds were available to support volumetric modeling because of the rarity of density-porosity logs in the public records. Geostatistical analysis based on this data resulted in accurate structure models, less accurate isopach models, and inconsistent models of pore volume. Of the two layers studied, only the Whirlpool Sandstone data provided for a useful spatial model of pore volume. Where reliable models for spatial prediction are absent, the best predictor available for unsampled locations is the mean value of the data, and potential sequestration sites should be planned as close as possible to existing wells with volumetric data. ?? 2009. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists/Division of Environmental Geosciences. All rights reserved.

Financial Planning for Retirement: A Psychosocial Perspective

PubMed Central

Topa, Gabriela; Lunceford, Gregg; Boyatzis, Richard E.

2018-01-01

Retirement is a time of life that has grown ever longer in the developed world, and the number of pensioners has increased accordingly, questioning the strength of Social Security systems and the social safety net in general. Financial Planning for Retirement (FRP) consists of the series of activities involved in the accumulation of wealth to cover needs in the post-retirement stage of life. The negative short-, mid-, and long-term consequences of inadequate Financial Planning for Retirement do not only affect individuals, but also their extended families, homes, eventually producing an unwanted impact on the entire society. The Capacity-Willingness-Opportunity Model has been proposed to understand FPR, combined with Intentional Change Theory, a framework for understanding the process, antecedents and consequences of FPR. From this perspective, we propose this promising model, but there are a large number of variables that have not been included that offer novel ways to deepen our understanding of FPR. A focus on each dimension of the model, the role of age and psychosocial variables associated with demographic indicators such as gender, health status, and migration, allow us to provide a proposal of scientific advancement of FPR. PMID:29416519

Financial Planning for Retirement: A Psychosocial Perspective.

PubMed

Topa, Gabriela; Lunceford, Gregg; Boyatzis, Richard E

2017-01-01

Retirement is a time of life that has grown ever longer in the developed world, and the number of pensioners has increased accordingly, questioning the strength of Social Security systems and the social safety net in general. Financial Planning for Retirement (FRP) consists of the series of activities involved in the accumulation of wealth to cover needs in the post-retirement stage of life. The negative short-, mid-, and long-term consequences of inadequate Financial Planning for Retirement do not only affect individuals, but also their extended families, homes, eventually producing an unwanted impact on the entire society. The Capacity-Willingness-Opportunity Model has been proposed to understand FPR, combined with Intentional Change Theory, a framework for understanding the process, antecedents and consequences of FPR. From this perspective, we propose this promising model, but there are a large number of variables that have not been included that offer novel ways to deepen our understanding of FPR. A focus on each dimension of the model, the role of age and psychosocial variables associated with demographic indicators such as gender, health status, and migration, allow us to provide a proposal of scientific advancement of FPR.

The relationships between organizational and individual variables to on-the-job driver accidents and accident-free kilometres.

PubMed

Caird, J K; Kline, T J

2004-12-01

Highway fatalities are the leading cause of fatal work injuries in the US, accounting for approximately 1 in 4 of the 5900 job-related deaths during 2001. The present study focused on the contribution of organizational factors and driver behaviours to on-the-job driving accidents in a large Western Canadian corporation. A structural equation modelling (SEM) approach was used which allows researchers to test a complex set of relationships within a global theoretical framework. A number of scales were used to assess organizational support, driver errors, and driver behaviours. The sample of professional drivers that participated allowed the recording of on-the-job accidents and accident-free kilometres from their personnel files. The pattern of relationships in the fitted model, after controlling for exposure and social desirability, provides insight into the role of organizational support, planning, environment adaptations, fatigue, speed, errors and moving citations to on-the-job accidents and accident-free kilometres. For example, organizational support affected the capacity to plan. Time to plan work-related driving was found to predict accidents, fatigue and adaptations to the environment. Other interesting model paths, SEM limitations, future research and recommendations are elaborated.

NASA's advanced space transportation system launch vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Branscome, Darrell R.

1991-01-01

Some insight is provided into the advanced transportation planning and systems that will evolve to support long term mission requirements. The general requirements include: launch and lift capacity to low earth orbit (LEO); space based transfer systems for orbital operations between LEO and geosynchronous equatorial orbit (GEO), the Moon, and Mars; and Transfer vehicle systems for long duration deep space probes. These mission requirements are incorporated in the NASA Civil Needs Data Base. To accomplish these mission goals, adequate lift capacity to LEO must be available: to support science and application missions; to provide for construction of the Space Station Freedom; and to support resupply of personnel and supplies for its operations. Growth in lift capacity must be time phased to support an expanding mission model that includes Freedom Station, the Mission to Planet Earth, and an expanded robotic planetary program. The near term increase in cargo lift capacity associated with development of the Shuttle-C is addressed. The joint DOD/NASA Advanced Launch System studies are focused on a longer term new cargo capability that will significantly reduce costs of placing payloads in space.

Can Planning Time Compensate for Individual Differences in Working Memory Capacity?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nielson, Katharine B.

2014-01-01

Language learners with high working memory capacity have an advantage, all other factors being equal, during the second language acquisition (SLA) process; therefore, identifying a pedagogical intervention that can compensate for low working memory capacity would be advantageous to language learners and instructors. Extensive research on the…

Lessons learned about collaborative evaluation using the Capacity for Applying Project Evaluation (CAPE) framework with school and district leaders.

PubMed

Corn, Jenifer O; Byrom, Elizabeth; Knestis, Kirk; Matzen, Nita; Thrift, Beth

2012-11-01

Schools, districts, and state-level educational organizations are experiencing a great shift in the way they do the business of education. This shift focuses on accountability, specifically through the expectation of the effective utilization of evaluative-focused efforts to guide and support decisions about educational program implementation. In as much, education leaders need specific guidance and training on how to plan, implement, and use evaluation to critically examine district and school-level initiatives. One specific effort intended to address this need is through the Capacity for Applying Project Evaluation (CAPE) framework. The CAPE framework is composed of three crucial components: a collection of evaluation resources; a professional development model; and a conceptual framework that guides the work to support evaluation planning and implementation in schools and districts. School and district teams serve as active participants in the professional development and ultimately as formative evaluators of their own school or district-level programs by working collaboratively with evaluation experts. The CAPE framework involves the school and district staff in planning and implementing their evaluation. They are the ones deciding what evaluation questions to ask, which instruments to use, what data to collect, and how and to whom results should be reported. Initially this work is done through careful scaffolding by evaluation experts, where supports are slowly pulled away as the educators gain experience and confidence in their knowledge and skills as evaluators. Since CAPE engages all stakeholders in all stages of the evaluation, the philosophical intentions of these efforts to build capacity for formative evaluation strictly aligns with the collaborative evaluation approach. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hospital organizational response to the nuclear accident at Three Mile Island: implications for future-oriented disaster planning.

PubMed Central

Maxwell, C

1982-01-01

The 1979 nuclear accident at Three Mile Island (TMI) near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, caused severe organizational problems for neighboring health care institutions. Dauphin County, just north of TMI, contained four hospitals ranging in distance from 9.5 to 13.5 miles from the stricken plant. Crash plans put into effect within 48 hours of the initial incident successfully reduced hospital census to below 50 per cent of capacity, but retained bedridden and critically ill patients within the risk-zone. No plans existed for area-wide evacuation of hospitalized patients. Future-oriented disaster planning should include resource files of host institution bed capacity and transportation capabilities for the crash evacuation of hospitalized patients during non-traditional disasters. PMID:7058968

Hospital organizational response to the nuclear accident at Three Mile Island: implications for future-oriented disaster planning.

PubMed

Maxwell, C

1982-03-01

The 1979 nuclear accident at Three Mile Island (TMI) near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, caused severe organizational problems for neighboring health care institutions. Dauphin County, just north of TMI, contained four hospitals ranging in distance from 9.5 to 13.5 miles from the stricken plant. Crash plans put into effect within 48 hours of the initial incident successfully reduced hospital census to below 50 per cent of capacity, but retained bedridden and critically ill patients within the risk-zone. No plans existed for area-wide evacuation of hospitalized patients. Future-oriented disaster planning should include resource files of host institution bed capacity and transportation capabilities for the crash evacuation of hospitalized patients during non-traditional disasters.

Transforming the Department of State: Adapting Operational Capacities and Capabilities to the Post-9/11 Reality, Evolving Interagency Responsibilities, and the Challenges of the 21st Century

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-04-14

combination of the Strategic Plan, MPPs, and BPPs goals, along with performance, and accountability plans. Three other documents are inherently important...DOS Strategic Plan, Mission Performance Plan (MPP), Bureau Performance Plan ( BPP ). NSC representation, POLADs, Embassy Country Teams, and...the world. DOS Strategic Plan, Mission Performance Plan (MPP), Bureau Performance Plan ( BPP ). NSC representation, POLADs, Exchange

Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA): Planning for Climate Change at the Portland Water Bureau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heyn, K.; Campbell, E.

2016-12-01

The Portland Water Bureau has been studying the anticipated effects of climate change on its primary surface water source, the Bull Run Watershed, since the early 2000's. Early efforts by the bureau were almost exclusively reliant on outside expertise from climate modelers and researchers, particularly those at the Climate Impacts Group (CIG) at the University of Washington. Early work products from CIG formed the basis of the bureau's understanding of the most likely and consequential impacts to the watershed from continued GHG-caused warming. However, by mid-decade, as key supply and demand conditions for the bureau changed, it found it lacked the technical capacity and tools to conduct more refined and updated research to build on the outside analysis it had obtained. Beginning in 2010 through its participation in the Pilot Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) project, the bureau identified and began working to address the holes in its technical and institutional capacity by embarking on a process to assess and select a hydrologic model while obtaining downscaled climate change data to utilize within it. Parallel to the development of these technical elements, the bureau made investments in qualified staff to lead the model selection, development and utilization, while working to establish productive, collegial and collaborative relationships with key climate research staff at the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI), the University of Washington and the University of Idaho. This presentation describes the learning process of a major metropolitan area drinking water utility as its approach to addressing the complex problem of climate change evolves, matures, and begins to influence broader aspects of the organization's planning efforts.

How much electrical energy storage do we need? A synthesis for the U.S., Europe, and Germany

DOE PAGES

Cebulla, Felix; Haas, Jannik; Eichman, Josh; ...

2018-02-03

Electrical energy storage (EES) is a promising flexibility source for prospective low-carbon energy systems. In the last couple of years, many studies for EES capacity planning have been produced. However, these resulted in a very broad range of power and energy capacity requirements for storage, making it difficult for policymakers to identify clear storage planning recommendations. Therefore, we studied 17 recent storage expansion studies pertinent to the U.S., Europe, and Germany. We then systemized the storage requirement per variable renewable energy (VRE) share and generation technology. Our synthesis reveals that with increasing VRE shares, the EES power capacity increases linearly;more » and the energy capacity, exponentially. Further, by analyzing the outliers, the EES energy requirements can be at least halved. It becomes clear that grids dominated by photovoltaic energy call for more EES, while large shares of wind rely more on transmission capacity. Taking into account the energy mix clarifies - to a large degree - the apparent conflict of the storage requirements between the existing studies. Finally, there might exist a negative bias towards storage because transmission costs are frequently optimistic (by neglecting execution delays and social opposition) and storage can cope with uncertainties, but these issues are rarely acknowledged in the planning process.« less

How much electrical energy storage do we need? A synthesis for the U.S., Europe, and Germany

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cebulla, Felix; Haas, Jannik; Eichman, Josh

Electrical energy storage (EES) is a promising flexibility source for prospective low-carbon energy systems. In the last couple of years, many studies for EES capacity planning have been produced. However, these resulted in a very broad range of power and energy capacity requirements for storage, making it difficult for policymakers to identify clear storage planning recommendations. Therefore, we studied 17 recent storage expansion studies pertinent to the U.S., Europe, and Germany. We then systemized the storage requirement per variable renewable energy (VRE) share and generation technology. Our synthesis reveals that with increasing VRE shares, the EES power capacity increases linearly;more » and the energy capacity, exponentially. Further, by analyzing the outliers, the EES energy requirements can be at least halved. It becomes clear that grids dominated by photovoltaic energy call for more EES, while large shares of wind rely more on transmission capacity. Taking into account the energy mix clarifies - to a large degree - the apparent conflict of the storage requirements between the existing studies. Finally, there might exist a negative bias towards storage because transmission costs are frequently optimistic (by neglecting execution delays and social opposition) and storage can cope with uncertainties, but these issues are rarely acknowledged in the planning process.« less

Capacity planning for the future.

PubMed

Johnson, A M

1997-01-01

Managed care is changing the way health care organizations plan for their futures. Traditional planning takes into account history and geography, while the new approach factors in the impact of managed care of future utilization. The new approach also incorporates strategic planning into an organization's broader strategic plan and budgeting process. The result is a more comprehensive planning method that is critical for health care organization's success.

Capacity and readiness of civil society organisations to implement community case management of malaria in Kenya.

PubMed

Marita, Enock; Oule, Jared; Mungai, Margaret; Thiam, Sylla; Ilako, Festus

2016-01-01

Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) contribute to achieving development goals through advocacy, social mobilisation and provision of health services. CSO programming is a key component of Global Fund (GF) grants; however, CSOs face technical and governance capacity challenges in grant utilisation leading to missed opportunities for improving health at community level. Amref Health Africa was appointed Principal Recipient of a GF grant aimed at scaling up community case management of malaria through CSOs as sub-recipients in western Kenya. To identify potential risks and strengthen grant management, Amref Health Africa and the Ministry of Health conducted a capacity needs assessment to determine the capacity of CSOs to effectively utilise grants. 26 selected CSOs participated in this study. Document reviews and on-site assessments and observations were conducted using structured tool. The five main assessment areas were: governance and risk management; strategic and operational planning; monitoring and evaluation; programme management; and financial management. Overall performance was grouped into four categories: 3.0-2.5 (excellent), 2.0-2.4 (good), 1.5-1.9 (fair), and 1.0-1.4 (poor). Data were collected and analysed using Excel software. Twenty five out of 26 CSOs were legally compliant. 14(54%) CSOs were categorized as good; 7(27%) as excellent; 3(12%) as poor and 2(8%) as fair. Most CSOs had good programme management capacity but monitoring and evaluation presented the most capacity gaps. More than 75% of the CSOs were rated as excellent or good. A capacity building plan, programme risk management plan and oversight mechanisms were important for successful grant implementation.

Resilience and risk: a demographic model to inform conservation planning for polar bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regehr, Eric V.; Wilson, Ryan R.; Rode, Karyn D.; Runge, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Our modeling results suggest that harvest of polar bears is unlikely to accelerate population declines that result from declining carrying capacity caused by sea-ice loss, provided that several conditions are met: (1) the sustainable harvest rate reflects the population’s intrinsic growth rate, and the corresponding harvest level is obtained by applying this rate to an estimate of population size; (2) the sustainable harvest rate reflects the quality of population data (e.g., lower harvest when data are poor); and (3) the level of human-caused removals can be adjusted. Finally, our results suggest that stopgap measures (e.g., further reduction or cessation of harvest when the population size is less than a critical threshold) may be necessary to minimize the incremental risk associated with harvest, if environmental conditions are deteriorating rapidly. We suggest that the demographic model and approaches presented here can serve as a template for conservation planning for polar bears and other species facing similar challenges.

Using 'reverse triage' to create hospital surge capacity: Royal Darwin Hospital's response to the Ashmore Reef disaster.

PubMed

Satterthwaite, Peter S; Atkinson, Carol J

2012-02-01

This report analyses the impact of reverse triage, as described by Kelen, to rapidly assess the need for continuing inpatient care and to expedite patient discharge to create surge capacity for disaster victims. The Royal Darwin Hospital was asked to take up to 30 casualties suffering from blast injuries from a boat carrying asylum seekers that had exploded 840 km west of Darwin. The hospital was full, with a backlog of cases awaiting admission in the emergency department. The Disaster Response Team convened at 10:00 to develop the surge capacity to admit up to 30 casualties. By 14:00, 56 beds (16% of capacity) were predicted to be available by 18:00. The special circumstances of a disaster enabled staff to suspend their usual activities and place a priority on triaging inpatients' suitability for discharge. The External Disaster Plan was activated and response protocols were followed. Normal elective activity was suspended. Multidisciplinary teams immediately assessed patients and completed the necessary clinical and administrative requirements to discharge them quickly. As per the Plan there was increased use of community care options: respite nursing home beds and community nursing services. Through a combination of cancellation of all planned admissions, discharging 19 patients at least 1 day earlier than planned and discharging all patients earlier in the day surge capacity was made available in Royal Darwin Hospital to accommodate blast victims. Notably, reverse triage resulted in no increase in clinical risk with only one patient who was discharged early returning for further treatment.

A Method for Forecasting the Commercial Air Traffic Schedule in the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Long, Dou; Lee, David; Gaier, Eric; Johnson, Jesse; Kostiuk, Peter

1999-01-01

This report presents an integrated set of models that forecasts air carriers' future operations when delays due to limited terminal-area capacity are considered. This report models the industry as a whole, avoiding unnecessary details of competition among the carriers. To develop the schedule outputs, we first present a model to forecast the unconstrained flight schedules in the future, based on the assumption of rational behavior of the carriers. Then we develop a method to modify the unconstrained schedules, accounting for effects of congestion due to limited NAS capacities. Our underlying assumption is that carriers will modify their operations to keep mean delays within certain limits. We estimate values for those limits from changes in planned block times reflected in the OAG. Our method for modifying schedules takes many means of reducing the delays into considerations, albeit some of them indirectly. The direct actions include depeaking, operating in off-hours, and reducing hub airports'operations. Indirect actions include using secondary airports, using larger aircraft, and selecting new hub airports, which, we assume, have already been modeled in the FAA's TAF. Users of our suite of models can substitute an alternative forecast for the TAF.

Development of coordination system model on single-supplier multi-buyer for multi-item supply chain with probabilistic demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olivia, G.; Santoso, A.; Prayogo, D. N.

2017-11-01

Nowadays, the level of competition between supply chains is getting tighter and a good coordination system between supply chains members is very crucial in solving the issue. This paper focused on a model development of coordination system between single supplier and buyers in a supply chain as a solution. Proposed optimization model was designed to determine the optimal number of deliveries from a supplier to buyers in order to minimize the total cost over a planning horizon. Components of the total supply chain cost consist of transportation costs, handling costs of supplier and buyers and also stock out costs. In the proposed optimization model, the supplier can supply various types of items to retailers whose item demand patterns are probabilistic. Sensitivity analysis of the proposed model was conducted to test the effect of changes in transport costs, handling costs and production capacities of the supplier. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed a significant influence on the changes in the transportation cost, handling costs and production capacity to the decisions of the optimal numbers of product delivery for each item to the buyers.

Succession Planning: A Doctoral Program Partnership for Emerging Community College Leaders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luna, Gaye

2010-01-01

This article describes a doctoral program partnership between a university and a community college district that addresses the need of employment-planning strategies for building leadership capacity in the community college system. Succession planning information is provided as a foundational framework to plan for the next generation of community…

Learning for Sustainability: NSW Environmental Education Plan, 2002-05.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

2002

This document is the first three-year environmental education plan for New South Wales (NSW), Australia. The plan is guided by a vision to achieve effective and integrated environmental education which builds the capacity of the people of NSW to be informed and active participants in moving society towards sustainability. The plan's priority…

Training Planning and Working Memory in Third Graders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldin, Andrea Paula; Segretin, Maria Soledad; Hermida, Maria Julia; Paz, Luciano; Lipina, Sebastian Javier; Sigman, Mariano

2013-01-01

Working memory and planning are fundamental cognitive skills supporting fluid reasoning. We show that 2 games that train working memory and planning skills in school-aged children promote transfer to 2 different tasks: an attentional test and a fluid reasoning test. We also show long-term improvement of planning and memory capacities in…

Optimal Spatial Design of Capacity and Quantity of Rainwater Catchment Systems for Urban Flood Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, C.; Hsu, N.

2013-12-01

This study imports Low-Impact Development (LID) technology of rainwater catchment systems into a Storm-Water runoff Management Model (SWMM) to design the spatial capacity and quantity of rain barrel for urban flood mitigation. This study proposes a simulation-optimization model for effectively searching the optimal design. In simulation method, we design a series of regular spatial distributions of capacity and quantity of rainwater catchment facilities, and thus the reduced flooding circumstances using a variety of design forms could be simulated by SWMM. Moreover, we further calculate the net benefit that is equal to subtract facility cost from decreasing inundation loss and the best solution of simulation method would be the initial searching solution of the optimization model. In optimizing method, first we apply the outcome of simulation method and Back-Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) for developing a water level simulation model of urban drainage system in order to replace SWMM which the operating is based on a graphical user interface and is hard to combine with optimization model and method. After that we embed the BPNN-based simulation model into the developed optimization model which the objective function is minimizing the negative net benefit. Finally, we establish a tabu search-based algorithm to optimize the planning solution. This study applies the developed method in Zhonghe Dist., Taiwan. Results showed that application of tabu search and BPNN-based simulation model into the optimization model not only can find better solutions than simulation method in 12.75%, but also can resolve the limitations of previous studies. Furthermore, the optimized spatial rain barrel design can reduce 72% of inundation loss according to historical flood events.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Yongxi

We propose an integrated modeling framework to optimally locate wireless charging facilities along a highway corridor to provide sufficient in-motion charging. The integrated model consists of a master, Infrastructure Planning Model that determines best locations with integrated two sub-models that explicitly capture energy consumption and charging and the interactions between electric vehicle and wireless charging technologies, geometrics of highway corridors, speed, and auxiliary system. The model is implemented in an illustrative case study of a highway corridor of Interstate 5 in Oregon. We found that the cost of establishing the charging lane is sensitive and increases with the speed tomore » achieve. Through sensitivity analyses, we gain better understanding on the extent of impacts of geometric characteristics of highways and battery capacity on the charging lane design.« less

Advancements in OSeMOSYS - the Open Source energy MOdelling SYStem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardumi, Francesco; Almulla, Youssef; Shivakumar, Abhishek; Taliotis, Constantinos; Howells, Mark

2017-04-01

This work provides a review of the latest developments and applications of OSeMOSYS energy systems model generator. OSeMOSYS was launched at Oxford university in 2011, including co-authors from UCL, UNIDO, UCT, Stanford, PSI and other institutions. It was designed to fill a gap in the energy modelling toolkit, where no open source optimising model generators were available at the time. OSeMOSYS is free, open source and accessible. Written in GNU MathProg programming language, it can generate from small village energy models up to global multi-resource integrated - Climate, Land, Energy, Water - models. In its most widespread version it calculates what investments to make, when, at what capacity and how to operate them, to meet given final demands and policy targets at the lowest cost. OSeMOSYS is structured into blocks of functionalities, each consisting in a stand-alone set of equations which can be plugged into the core code to add specific insights for the case-study of interest. Originally, seven blocks of functionalities for the objective function, costs, storage, capacity adequacy, energy balance, constraints, emissions were provided, documented by plain English descriptions and algebraic formulations. Recently, the block for storage was deeply revised and developed, while new blocks of functionality for studying short-term implications of energy planning onto the electricity system were designed. These include equations for computing 1) the reserve capacity dispatch; 2) the costs of flexible operation of power plants and 3) the reserve capacity demand as a function of the penetration of intermittent renewables were introduced. Additionally, a revision of the whole code was completed, as the result of a public call launched and led by UNite Ideas. This allowed the computational time to be greatly reduced and opened up the path to refinements of the scales of analysis. Finally, the code was made available in Python and GAMS programming languages, thus engaging two of the widest existing communities of programmers. Such developments allowed a number of applications to be produced at different scales. Regional and country models were generated for the whole of South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. A Pan-European model is under development. Models of Cyprus and Tunisia, detailed down to the individual power plant, are among the latest applications. Finally, integrated assessment water-energy models have been generated for regions in Central Asia and the Balkans, in the framework of the UNECE Water Convention. These look into trans-boundary issues related to the water and energy management along river basins, including detailed representations of water storage and cascading power plants. This multiplicity of developments and applications of OSeMOSYS engages a wide community of users and decision-makers and fosters the use of modelling tools for energy planning. This fulfils a scientific and social mission to empower communities with the development of solutions for a better access to energy.

Optimal investments in digital communication systems in primary exchange area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, R.; Hornung, R.

1980-11-01

Integer linear optimization theory, following Gomory's method, was applied to the model planning of telecommunication networks in which all future investments are made in digital systems only. The integer decision variables are the number of digital systems set up on cable or radiorelay links that can be installed. The objective function is the total cost of the extension of the existing line capacity to meet the demand between primary and local exchanges. Traffic volume constraints and flow conservation in transit nodes complete the model. Results indicating computing time and method efficiency are illustrated by an example.

Assessing Capacity for Sustainability of Effective Programs and Policies in Local Health Departments.

PubMed

Tabak, Rachel G; Duggan, Katie; Smith, Carson; Aisaka, Kristelle; Moreland-Russell, Sarah; Brownson, Ross C

2016-01-01

Sustainability has been defined as the existence of structures and processes that allow a program to leverage resources to effectively implement and maintain evidence-based public health and is important in local health departments (LHDs) to retain the benefits of effective programs. Explore the applicability of the Program Sustainability Framework in high- and low-capacity LHDs as defined by national performance standards. Case study interviews from June to July 2013. Standard qualitative methodology was used to code transcripts; codes were developed inductively and deductively. Six geographically diverse LHD's (selected from 3 of high and 3 of low capacity) : 35 LHD practitioners. Thematic reports explored the 8 domains (Organizational Capacity, Program Adaptation, Program Evaluation, Communications, Strategic Planning, Funding Stability, Environmental Support, and Partnerships) of the Program Sustainability Framework. High-capacity LHDs described having environmental support, while low-capacity LHDs reported this was lacking. Both high- and low-capacity LHDs described limited funding; however, high-capacity LHDs reported greater funding flexibility. Partnerships were important to high- and low-capacity LHDs, and both described building partnerships to sustain programming. Regarding organizational capacity, high-capacity LHDs reported better access to and support for adequate staff and staff training when compared with low-capacity LHDs. While high-capacity LHDs described integration of program evaluation into implementation and sustainability, low-capacity LHDs reported limited capacity for measurement specifically and evaluation generally. When high-capacity LHDs described program adoption, they discussed an opportunity to adapt and evaluate. Low-capacity LHDs struggled with programs requiring adaptation. High-capacity LHDs described higher quality communication than low-capacity LHDs. High- and low-capacity LHDs described strategic planning, but high-capacity LHDs reported efforts to integrate evidence-based public health. Investments in leadership support for improving organizational capacity, improvements in communication from the top of the organization, integrating program evaluation into implementation, and greater funding flexibility may enhance sustainability of evidence-based public health in LHDs.

Heavy vehicle effects on Florida freeways and multilane highways.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-10-01

The Florida Department of Transportations (FDOT) primary guide for conducting highway capacity and level of : service analyses from planning through design is the Transportation Research Boards Highway Capacity Manual (HCM). : FDOTs FREEPLAN...

Project Mapping to Build Capacity and Demonstrate Impact in the Earth Sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemmings, S. N.; Searby, N. D.; Murphy, K. J.; Mataya, C. J.; Crepps, G.; Clayton, A.; Stevens, C. L.

2017-12-01

Diverse organizations are increasingly using project mapping to communicate location-based information about their activities. NASA's Earth Science Division (ESD), through the Earth Science Data Systems and Applied Sciences' Capacity Building Program (CBP), has created a geographic information system of all ESD projects to support internal program management for the agency. The CBP's NASA DEVELOP program has built an interactive mapping tool to support capacity building for the program's varied constituents. This presentation will explore the types of programmatic opportunities provided by a geographic approach to management, communication, and strategic planning. We will also discuss the various external benefits that mapping supports and that build capacity in the Earth sciences. These include activities such as project matching (location-focused synergies), portfolio planning, inter- and intra-organizational collaboration, science diplomacy, and basic impact analysis.

An Assessment of Institutional Capacity for Integrated Landscape Management in Eastern Cameroon.

PubMed

Brown, H Carolyn Peach

2018-07-01

Landscape approaches have become prominent in efforts to address issues of conservation and development through bringing together different actors and sectors, to reconcile diverse land uses, and promote synergies. Some have suggested that integrated landscape management approaches are consistent with the goals of REDD+ and offer a strategy to address multiple goals of climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, maintenance of ecosystem services, and socio-economic development. Institutional or governance arrangements have been shown to be a critical component in influencing outcomes in landscapes. Using diverse methodologies, this study investigated the capacity of institutions to support the planning, implementation, and resource mobilization needed to integrate climate change mitigation, conservation, and livelihood goals in a forest mosaic landscape in East Cameroon. Results showed that diverse institutions are present in the landscape, including institutions of relevant government agencies, local government, local non-government, the private sector, and hybrid institutions of conservation, development and research institutions. However, the overall institutional capacity for integrated landscape planning and management in the study area is limited, although some institutions exhibit increased capacity in some areas over others. Multiple strategies can be employed to build the necessary human, financial, and leadership capacity, and facilitate the institutional planning and coordination that is foundational to multi-stakeholder landscape governance. Given the complexity of integrating climate change mitigation, conservation and livelihood goals in a landscape, building such institutional capacity is a long term endeavour that requires sustained effort and ongoing financial, technical and human resource support.

Capacity reconsidered: Finding consensus and clarifying differences

Treesearch

Doug Whittaker; Bo Shelby; Robert Manning; David Cole; Glenn Haas

2010-01-01

In a world where populations and resource demands continue to grow, there is a long history of concern about the "capacity" of the environment to support human uses, including timber, rangelands, fish and wildlife, and recreation. Work on visitor capacities has evolved considerably since the late 1960s as a result of environmental planning, court proceedings...

Community Prevention Coalition Context and Capacity Assessment: Comparing the United States and Mexico

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Louis D.; Chilenski, Sarah M.; Ramos, Rebeca; Gallegos, Nora; Feinberg, Mark E.

2016-01-01

Effective planning for community health partnerships requires understanding how initial readiness--that is, contextual factors and capacity--influences implementation of activities and programs. This study compares the context and capacity of drug and violence prevention coalitions in Mexico to those in the United States. Measures of coalition…

The DELTA PREP Initiative" Accelerating Coalition Capacity for Intimate Partner Violence Prevention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zakocs, Ronda; Freire, Kimberley E.

2015-01-01

Background: The DELTA PREP Project aimed to build the prevention capacity of 19 state domestic violence coalitions by offering eight supports designed to promote prevention integration over a 3-year period: modest grant awards, training events, technical assistance, action planning, coaching hubs, the Coalition Prevention Capacity Assessment, an…

A novel approach to multihazard modeling and simulation.

PubMed

Smith, Silas W; Portelli, Ian; Narzisi, Giuseppe; Nelson, Lewis S; Menges, Fabian; Rekow, E Dianne; Mincer, Joshua S; Mishra, Bhubaneswar; Goldfrank, Lewis R

2009-06-01

To develop and apply a novel modeling approach to support medical and public health disaster planning and response using a sarin release scenario in a metropolitan environment. An agent-based disaster simulation model was developed incorporating the principles of dose response, surge response, and psychosocial characteristics superimposed on topographically accurate geographic information system architecture. The modeling scenarios involved passive and active releases of sarin in multiple transportation hubs in a metropolitan city. Parameters evaluated included emergency medical services, hospital surge capacity (including implementation of disaster plan), and behavioral and psychosocial characteristics of the victims. In passive sarin release scenarios of 5 to 15 L, mortality increased nonlinearly from 0.13% to 8.69%, reaching 55.4% with active dispersion, reflecting higher initial doses. Cumulative mortality rates from releases in 1 to 3 major transportation hubs similarly increased nonlinearly as a function of dose and systemic stress. The increase in mortality rate was most pronounced in the 80% to 100% emergency department occupancy range, analogous to the previously observed queuing phenomenon. Effective implementation of hospital disaster plans decreased mortality and injury severity. Decreasing ambulance response time and increasing available responding units reduced mortality among potentially salvageable patients. Adverse psychosocial characteristics (excess worry and low compliance) increased demands on health care resources. Transfer to alternative urban sites was possible. An agent-based modeling approach provides a mechanism to assess complex individual and systemwide effects in rare events.

Interaction dynamics: The case of the water sector skills plan in South Africa.

PubMed

Moyo, Laurane; Wehn, Uta

2017-02-01

Despite extensive and continuous efforts to strengthen the capacity of people, organizations and institutions, there is evidence of an increasing gap between the existing and required capacities within the water sector. Consensus seems to be emerging regarding the need for national strategies to improve water sector capacity development. This paper analyses the dynamics of actors' interactions and their characteristics (motivation, cognition and power) during the formulation and implementation of a specific capacity development strategy, namely the Water Sector Skills Plan (SSP) in South Africa. Based on the Contextual Interactive Theory and empirical findings, our analysis indicates slow progression and challenges with implementing the SSP, mainly due to the lack of consultation with key stakeholders during the formulation stage, a lack of data sharing among the target group (the Sector Education Training Authorities), and a lack of capacities within the key implementing organizations. These policy dynamics need to be taken into account when advocating for national capacity development strategies as a solution for challenges with water sector capacity development. The paper proposes the recommendations that are of relevance for the SSP as well as similar initiatives in other countries. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Sustainable Improvement of Urban River Network Water Quality and Flood Control Capacity by a Hydrodynamic Control Approach-Case Study of Changshu City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Chen; Yang, Fan; Liu, Guoqing; Liu, Yang; Wang, Long; Fan, Ziwu

2017-01-01

Water environment of urban rivers suffers degradation with the impacts of urban expansion, especially in Yangtze River Delta. The water area in cites decreased sharply, and some rivers were cut off because of estate development, which brings the problems of urban flooding, flow stagnation and water deterioration. The approach aims to enhance flood control capability and improve the urban river water quality by planning gate-pump stations surrounding the cities and optimizing the locations and functions of the pumps, sluice gates, weirs in the urban river network. These gate-pump stations together with the sluice gates and weirs guarantee the ability to control the water level in the rivers and creating hydraulic gradient artificially according to mathematical model. Therefore the flow velocity increases, which increases the rate of water exchange, the DO concentration and water body self-purification ability. By site survey and prototype measurement, the river problems are evaluated and basic data are collected. The hydrodynamic model of the river network is established and calibrated to simulate the scenarios. The schemes of water quality improvement, including optimizing layout of the water distribution projects, improvement of the flow discharge in the river network and planning the drainage capacity are decided by comprehensive Analysis. Finally the paper introduces the case study of the approach in Changshu City, where the approach is successfully implemented.

Reports of coal’s terminal decline may be exaggerated

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edenhofer, Ottmar; Steckel, Jan Christoph; Jakob, Michael; Bertram, Christoph

2018-02-01

We estimate the cumulative future emissions expected to be released by coal power plants that are currently under construction, announced, or planned. Even though coal consumption has recently declined and plans to build new coal-fired capacities have been shelved, constructing all these planned coal-fired power plants would endanger national and international climate targets. Plans to build new coal-fired power capacity would likely undermine the credibility of some countries’ (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions submitted to the UNFCCC. If all the coal-fired power plants that are currently planned were built, the carbon budget for reaching the 2 °C temperature target would nearly be depleted. Propositions about ‘coal’s terminal decline’ may thereby be premature. The phase-out of coal requires dedicated and well-designed policies. We discuss the political economy of policy options that could avoid a continued build-up of coal-fired power plants.

Generalisation, decision making, and embodiment effects in mental rotation: A neurorobotic architecture tested with a humanoid robot.

PubMed

Seepanomwan, Kristsana; Caligiore, Daniele; Cangelosi, Angelo; Baldassarre, Gianluca

2015-12-01

Mental rotation, a classic experimental paradigm of cognitive psychology, tests the capacity of humans to mentally rotate a seen object to decide if it matches a target object. In recent years, mental rotation has been investigated with brain imaging techniques to identify the brain areas involved. Mental rotation has also been investigated through the development of neural-network models, used to identify the specific mechanisms that underlie its process, and with neurorobotics models to investigate its embodied nature. Current models, however, have limited capacities to relate to neuro-scientific evidence, to generalise mental rotation to new objects, to suitably represent decision making mechanisms, and to allow the study of the effects of overt gestures on mental rotation. The work presented in this study overcomes these limitations by proposing a novel neurorobotic model that has a macro-architecture constrained by knowledge held on brain, encompasses a rather general mental rotation mechanism, and incorporates a biologically plausible decision making mechanism. The model was tested using the humanoid robot iCub in tasks requiring the robot to mentally rotate 2D geometrical images appearing on a computer screen. The results show that the robot gained an enhanced capacity to generalise mental rotation to new objects and to express the possible effects of overt movements of the wrist on mental rotation. The model also represents a further step in the identification of the embodied neural mechanisms that may underlie mental rotation in humans and might also give hints to enhance robots' planning capabilities. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Qualitative study to develop processes and tools for the assessment and tracking of African institutions’ capacity for operational health research

PubMed Central

Cole, Donald C; Gaye, Oumar; Mmbaga, Blandina T; Mwapasa, Victor; Tagbor, Harry

2017-01-01

Objectives Research is key to achieving global development goals. Our objectives were to develop and test an evidence-informed process for assessing health research management and support systems (RMSS) in four African universities and for tracking interventions to address capacity gaps. Setting Four African universities. Participants 83 university staff and students from 11 cadres. Intervention/methods A literature-informed ‘benchmark’ was developed and used to itemise all components of a university’s health RMSS. Data on all components were collected during site visits to four African universities using interview guides, document reviews and facilities observation guides. Gaps in RMSS capacity were identified against the benchmark and institutional action plans developed to remedy gaps. Progress against indicators was tracked over 15 months and common challenges and successes identified. Results Common gaps in operational health research capacity included no accessible research strategy, a lack of research e-tracking capability and inadequate quality checks for proposal submissions and contracts. Feedback indicated that the capacity assessment was comprehensive and generated practical actions, several of which were no-cost. Regular follow-up helped to maintain focus on activities to strengthen health research capacity in the face of challenges. Conclusions Identification of each institutions’ strengths and weaknesses against an evidence-informed benchmark enabled them to identify gaps in in their operational health research systems, to develop prioritised action plans, to justify resource requests to fulfil the plans and to track progress in strengthening RMSS. Use of a standard benchmark, approach and tools enabled comparisons across institutions which has accelerated production of evidence about the science of research capacity strengthening. The tools could be used by institutions seeking to understand their strengths and to address gaps in research capacity. Research capacity gaps that were common to several institutions could be a ‘smart’ investment for governments and health research funders. PMID:28877945

Integrating landscape analysis and planning: a multi-scale approach for oriented management of tourist recreation.

PubMed

de Aranzabal, Itziar; Schmitz, María F; Pineda, Francisco D

2009-11-01

Tourism and landscape are interdependent concepts. Nature- and culture-based tourism are now quite well developed activities and can constitute an excellent way of exploiting the natural resources of certain areas, and should therefore be considered as key objectives in landscape planning and management in a growing number of countries. All of this calls for careful evaluation of the effects of tourism on the territory. This article focuses on an integrated spatial method for landscape analysis aimed at quantifying the relationship between preferences of visitors and landscape features. The spatial expression of the model relating types of leisure and recreational preferences to the potential capacity of the landscape to meet them involves a set of maps showing degrees of potential visitor satisfaction. The method constitutes a useful tool for the design of tourism planning and management strategies, with landscape conservation as a reference.

Pandemic influenza and critical infrastructure dependencies: possible impact on hospitals.

PubMed

Itzwerth, Ralf L; Macintyre, C Raina; Shah, Smita; Plant, Aileen J

2006-11-20

Hospitals will be particularly challenged when pandemic influenza spreads. Within the health sector in general, existing pandemic plans focus on health interventions to control outbreaks. The critical relationship between the health sector and other sectors is not well understood and addressed. Hospitals depend on critical infrastructure external to the organisation itself. Existing plans do not adequately consider the complexity and interdependency of systems upon which hospitals rely. The failure of one such system can trigger a failure of another, causing cascading breakdowns. Health is only one of the many systems that struggle at maximum capacity during "normal" times, as current business models operate with no or minimal "excess" staff and have become irreducible operations. This makes interconnected systems highly vulnerable to acute disruptions, such as a pandemic. Companies use continuity plans and highly regulated business continuity management to overcome process interruptions. This methodology can be applied to hospitals to minimise the impact of a pandemic.

Study on Mine Emergency Mechanism based on TARP and ICS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xi, Jian; Wu, Zongzhi

2018-01-01

By analyzing the experiences and practices of mine emergency in China and abroad, especially the United States and Australia, normative principle, risk management principle and adaptability principle of constructing mine emergency mechanism based on Trigger Action Response Plans (TARP) and Incident Command System (ICS) are summarized. Classification method, framework, flow and subject of TARP and ICS which are suitable for the actual situation of domestic mine emergency are proposed. The system dynamics model of TARP and ICS is established. The parameters such as evacuation ratio, response rate, per capita emergency capability and entry rate of rescuers are set up. By simulating the operation process of TARP and ICS, the impact of these parameters on the emergency process are analyzed, which could provide a reference and basis for building emergency capacity, formulating emergency plans and setting up action plans in the emergency process.

A new technology for manufacturing scheduling derived from space system operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hornstein, R. S.; Willoughby, J. K.

1993-01-01

A new technology for producing finite capacity schedules has been developed in response to complex requirements for operating space systems such as the Space Shuttle, the Space Station, and the Deep Space Network for telecommunications. This technology has proven its effectiveness in manufacturing environments where popular scheduling techniques associated with Materials Resources Planning (MRPII) and with factory simulation are not adequate for shop-floor work planning and control. The technology has three components. The first is a set of data structures that accommodate an extremely general description of a factory's resources, its manufacturing activities, and the constraints imposed by the environment. The second component is a language and set of software utilities that enable a rapid synthesis of functional capabilities. The third component is an algorithmic architecture called the Five Ruleset Model which accommodates the unique needs of each factory. Using the new technology, systems can model activities that generate, consume, and/or obligate resources. This allows work-in-process (WIP) to be generated and used; it permits constraints to be imposed or intermediate as well as finished goods inventories. It is also possible to match as closely as possible both the current factory state and future conditions such as promise dates. Schedule revisions can be accommodated without impacting the entire production schedule. Applications have been successful in both discrete and process manufacturing environments. The availability of a high-quality finite capacity production planning capability enhances the data management capabilities of MRP II systems. These schedules can be integrated with shop-floor data collection systems and accounting systems. Using the new technology, semi-custom systems can be developed at costs that are comparable to products that do not have equivalent functional capabilities and/or extensibility.

A practical and systematic approach to organisational capacity strengthening for research in the health sector in Africa

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Despite increasing investment in health research capacity strengthening efforts in low and middle income countries, published evidence to guide the systematic design and monitoring of such interventions is very limited. Systematic processes are important to underpin capacity strengthening interventions because they provide stepwise guidance and allow for continual improvement. Our objective here was to use evidence to inform the design of a replicable but flexible process to guide health research capacity strengthening that could be customized for different contexts, and to provide a framework for planning, collecting information, making decisions, and improving performance. Methods We used peer-reviewed and grey literature to develop a five-step pathway for designing and evaluating health research capacity strengthening programmes, tested in a variety of contexts in Africa. The five steps are: i) defining the goal of the capacity strengthening effort, ii) describing the optimal capacity needed to achieve the goal, iii) determining the existing capacity gaps compared to the optimum, iv) devising an action plan to fill the gaps and associated indicators of change, and v) adapting the plan and indicators as the programme matures. Our paper describes three contrasting case studies of organisational research capacity strengthening to illustrate how our five-step approach works in practice. Results Our five-step pathway starts with a clear goal and objectives, making explicit the capacity required to achieve the goal. Strategies for promoting sustainability are agreed with partners and incorporated from the outset. Our pathway for designing capacity strengthening programmes focuses not only on technical, managerial, and financial processes within organisations, but also on the individuals within organisations and the wider system within which organisations are coordinated, financed, and managed. Conclusions Our five-step approach is flexible enough to generate and utilise ongoing learning. We have tested and critiqued our approach in a variety of organisational settings in the health sector in sub-Saharan Africa, but it needs to be applied and evaluated in other sectors and continents to determine the extent of transferability. PMID:24581148

Emergencies planning and response: Coupling an exposure model with different atmospheric dispersion models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, E. Y.; Colman Lerner, J. E.; Porta, A.; Jacovkis, P. M.

2013-11-01

Information on spatial and time dependent concentration patterns of hazardous substances, as well as on the potential effects on population, is necessary to assist in chemical emergency planning and response. To that end, some models predict transport and dispersion of hazardous substances, and others estimate potential effects upon exposed population. Taken together, both groups constitute a powerful tool to estimate vulnerable regions and to evaluate environmental impact upon affected populations. The development of methodologies and models with direct application to the context in which we live allows us to draft a more clear representation of the risk scenario and, hence, to obtain the adequate tools for an optimal response. By means of the recently developed DDC (Damage Differential Coupling) exposure model, it was possible to optimize, from both the qualitative and the quantitative points of view, the estimation of the population affected by a toxic cloud, because the DDC model has a very good capacity to couple with different atmospheric dispersion models able to provide data over time. In this way, DDC analyzes the different concentration profiles (output from the transport model) associating them with some reference concentration to identify risk zones. In this work we present a disaster scenario in Chicago (USA), by coupling DDC with two transport models of different complexity, showing the close relationship between a representative result and the run time of the models. In the same way, it becomes evident that knowing the time evolution of the toxic cloud and of the affected regions significantly improves the probability of taking the correct decisions on planning and response facing the emergency.

Applying analysis tools in planning for operations : case study #2 -- incorporating Highway Capacity Manual procedures into long-range transportation planning

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-09-01

More and more, transportation system operators are seeing the benefi ts of strengthening links between : planning and operations. A critical element in improving transportation decision-making and the effectiveness : of transportation systems related...

Electricity Capacity Expansion Modeling, Analysis, and Visualization. A Summary of High-Renewable Modeling Experience for China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blair, Nate; Zhou, Ella; Getman, Dan

2015-10-01

Mathematical and computational models are widely used for the analysis and design of both physical and financial systems. Modeling the electric grid is of particular importance to China for three reasons. First, power-sector assets are expensive and long-lived, and they are critical to any country's development. China's electric load, transmission, and other energy-related infrastructure are expected to continue to grow rapidly; therefore it is crucial to understand and help plan for the future in which those assets will operate (NDRC ERI 2015). Second, China has dramatically increased its deployment of renewable energy (RE), and is likely to continue further acceleratingmore » such deployment over the coming decades. Careful planning and assessment of the various aspects (technical, economic, social, and political) of integrating a large amount of renewables on the grid is required. Third, companies need the tools to develop a strategy for their own involvement in the power market China is now developing, and to enable a possible transition to an efficient and high RE future.« less

NCLOS program 2010 update.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-06-01

The North Carolina Level of Service (NCLOS) program is a planning-level highway capacity analysis tool : developed for NCDOT under a previous project. The program uses the operational methodologies in the 2010 : Highway Capacity Manual (HCM), along w...

How Accumulated Real Life Stress Experience and Cognitive Speed Interact on Decision-Making Processes

PubMed Central

Friedel, Eva; Sebold, Miriam; Kuitunen-Paul, Sören; Nebe, Stephan; Veer, Ilya M.; Zimmermann, Ulrich S.; Schlagenhauf, Florian; Smolka, Michael N.; Rapp, Michael; Walter, Henrik; Heinz, Andreas

2017-01-01

Rationale: Advances in neurocomputational modeling suggest that valuation systems for goal-directed (deliberative) on one side, and habitual (automatic) decision-making on the other side may rely on distinct computational strategies for reinforcement learning, namely model-free vs. model-based learning. As a key theoretical difference, the model-based system strongly demands cognitive functions to plan actions prospectively based on an internal cognitive model of the environment, whereas valuation in the model-free system relies on rather simple learning rules from operant conditioning to retrospectively associate actions with their outcomes and is thus cognitively less demanding. Acute stress reactivity is known to impair model-based but not model-free choice behavior, with higher working memory capacity protecting the model-based system from acute stress. However, it is not clear which impact accumulated real life stress has on model-free and model-based decision systems and how this influence interacts with cognitive abilities. Methods: We used a sequential decision-making task distinguishing relative contributions of both learning strategies to choice behavior, the Social Readjustment Rating Scale questionnaire to assess accumulated real life stress, and the Digit Symbol Substitution Test to test cognitive speed in 95 healthy subjects. Results: Individuals reporting high stress exposure who had low cognitive speed showed reduced model-based but increased model-free behavioral control. In contrast, subjects exposed to accumulated real life stress with high cognitive speed displayed increased model-based performance but reduced model-free control. Conclusion: These findings suggest that accumulated real life stress exposure can enhance reliance on cognitive speed for model-based computations, which may ultimately protect the model-based system from the detrimental influences of accumulated real life stress. The combination of accumulated real life stress exposure and slower information processing capacities, however, might favor model-free strategies. Thus, the valence and preference of either system strongly depends on stressful experiences and individual cognitive capacities. PMID:28642696

How Accumulated Real Life Stress Experience and Cognitive Speed Interact on Decision-Making Processes.

PubMed

Friedel, Eva; Sebold, Miriam; Kuitunen-Paul, Sören; Nebe, Stephan; Veer, Ilya M; Zimmermann, Ulrich S; Schlagenhauf, Florian; Smolka, Michael N; Rapp, Michael; Walter, Henrik; Heinz, Andreas

2017-01-01

Rationale: Advances in neurocomputational modeling suggest that valuation systems for goal-directed (deliberative) on one side, and habitual (automatic) decision-making on the other side may rely on distinct computational strategies for reinforcement learning, namely model-free vs. model-based learning. As a key theoretical difference, the model-based system strongly demands cognitive functions to plan actions prospectively based on an internal cognitive model of the environment, whereas valuation in the model-free system relies on rather simple learning rules from operant conditioning to retrospectively associate actions with their outcomes and is thus cognitively less demanding. Acute stress reactivity is known to impair model-based but not model-free choice behavior, with higher working memory capacity protecting the model-based system from acute stress. However, it is not clear which impact accumulated real life stress has on model-free and model-based decision systems and how this influence interacts with cognitive abilities. Methods: We used a sequential decision-making task distinguishing relative contributions of both learning strategies to choice behavior, the Social Readjustment Rating Scale questionnaire to assess accumulated real life stress, and the Digit Symbol Substitution Test to test cognitive speed in 95 healthy subjects. Results: Individuals reporting high stress exposure who had low cognitive speed showed reduced model-based but increased model-free behavioral control. In contrast, subjects exposed to accumulated real life stress with high cognitive speed displayed increased model-based performance but reduced model-free control. Conclusion: These findings suggest that accumulated real life stress exposure can enhance reliance on cognitive speed for model-based computations, which may ultimately protect the model-based system from the detrimental influences of accumulated real life stress. The combination of accumulated real life stress exposure and slower information processing capacities, however, might favor model-free strategies. Thus, the valence and preference of either system strongly depends on stressful experiences and individual cognitive capacities.

[Model Foundation S. Maugeri-IRCCS].

PubMed

Bazzini, G

2010-01-01

A multidisciplinary (physiatrist, occupational physician, neurophysiologist, radiologist, etc.) and multiprofessional (occupational therapist, physiotherapist, ergonomist) strategy for rehabilitation and re-introduction of people with work-related injuries was tested at the "Fondazione Maugeri" Scientific Institue (Pavia, Italy). This process of re-introduction to work has several stages including increasing strength and resistance, specific occupational therapy activities to recover working functions and movements, aerobic training, prescription and allocation of any auxiliaries necessary, and inspections of the home and workplace. One particular feature is the final functional evaluation, whose aims are: to study the subject's "residual capacities" and "sustainable capacities", to supply useful information to the occupational physician in view of the verifying the patient's suitability for work, to contribute to "targeted" re-introduction, and to offer parameters useful for prevention and ergonomic planning. The main features of the disabled person which are studied are: degree of disability, motor capacity (joint movements, strength, resistance), cognitive-verbal functions, sensitivity and sensory functions, psychological and emotional components, need for auxiliaries, educational-professional aspects, possibility of autonomous transport, and motivation.

Planned home birth in the United States and professionalism: a critical assessment.

PubMed

Chervenak, Frank A; McCullough, Laurence B; Grünebaum, Amos; Arabin, Birgit; Levene, Malcolm I; Brent, Robert L

2013-01-01

Planned home birth has been considered by some to be consistent with professional responsibility in patient care. This article critically assesses the ethical and scientific justification for this view and shows it to be unjustified. We critically assess recent statements by professional associations of obstetricians, one that sanctions and one that endorses planned home birth. We base our critical appraisal on the professional responsibility model of obstetric ethics, which is based on the ethical concept of medicine from the Scottish and English Enlightenments of the 18th century. Our critical assessment supports the following conclusions. Because of its significantly increased, preventable perinatal risks, planned home birth in the United States is not clinically or ethically benign. Attending planned home birth, no matter one's training or experience, is not acting in a professional capacity, because this role preventably results in clinically unnecessary and therefore clinically unacceptable perinatal risk. It is therefore not consistent with the ethical concept of medicine as a profession for any attendant to planned home birth to represent himself or herself as a "professional." Obstetric healthcare associations should neither sanction nor endorse planned home birth. Instead, these associations should recommend against planned home birth. Obstetric healthcare professionals should respond to expressions of interest in planned home birth by pregnant women by informing them that it incurs significantly increased, preventable perinatal risks, by recommending strongly against planned home birth, and by recommending strongly for planned hospital birth. Obstetric healthcare professionals should routinely provide excellent obstetric care to all women transferred to the hospital from a planned home birth.The professional responsibility model of obstetric ethics requires obstetricians to address and remedy legitimate dissatisfaction with some hospital settings and address patients' concerns about excessive interventions. Creating a sustained culture of comprehensive safety, which cannot be achieved in planned home birth, informed by compassionate and respectful treatment of pregnant women, should be a primary focus of professional obstetric responsibility.

Tools of the Future: How Decision Tree Analysis Will Impact Mission Planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterstatter, Matthew R.

2005-01-01

The universe is infinitely complex; however, the human mind has a finite capacity. The multitude of possible variables, metrics, and procedures in mission planning are far too many to address exhaustively. This is unfortunate because, in general, considering more possibilities leads to more accurate and more powerful results. To compensate, we can get more insightful results by employing our greatest tool, the computer. The power of the computer will be utilized through a technology that considers every possibility, decision tree analysis. Although decision trees have been used in many other fields, this is innovative for space mission planning. Because this is a new strategy, no existing software is able to completely accommodate all of the requirements. This was determined through extensive research and testing of current technologies. It was necessary to create original software, for which a short-term model was finished this summer. The model was built into Microsoft Excel to take advantage of the familiar graphical interface for user input, computation, and viewing output. Macros were written to automate the process of tree construction, optimization, and presentation. The results are useful and promising. If this tool is successfully implemented in mission planning, our reliance on old-fashioned heuristics, an error-prone shortcut for handling complexity, will be reduced. The computer algorithms involved in decision trees will revolutionize mission planning. The planning will be faster and smarter, leading to optimized missions with the potential for more valuable data.

75 FR 27010 - Joint Industry Plan; Notice of Filing of Amendment No. 21 to the Joint Self-Regulatory...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-13

... processor to create and make available depth-of-book displays; the incorporation into the Plan of the... Elizabeth Murphy, Secretary, Commission, dated February 26, 2010. \\6\\ The complete text of the Plan, as... to submit its projected capacity needs directly to the Plan's Processor. The process avoids any need...

On the role of model-based monitoring for adaptive planning under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raso, Luciano; Kwakkel, Jan; Timmermans, Jos; Haasnoot, Mariolijn

2016-04-01

Adaptive plans, designed to anticipate and respond to an unfolding uncertain future, have found a fertile application domain in the planning of deltas that are exposed to rapid socioeconomic development and climate change. Adaptive planning, under the moniker of adaptive delta management, is used in the Dutch Delta Program for developing a nation-wide plan to prepare for uncertain climate change and socio-economic developments. Scientifically, adaptive delta management relies heavily on Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. Currently, in the Netherlands the focus is shifting towards implementing the adaptive delta plan. This shift is especially relevant because the efficacy of adaptive plans hinges on monitoring on-going developments and ensuring that actions are indeed taken if and when necessary. In the design of an effective monitoring system for an adaptive plan, three challenges have to be confronted: • Shadow of the past: The development of adaptive plans and the design of their monitoring system relies heavily on current knowledge of the system, and current beliefs about plausible future developments. A static monitoring system is therefore exposed to the exact same uncertainties one tries to address through adaptive planning. • Inhibition of learning: Recent applications of adaptive planning tend to overlook the importance of learning and new information, and fail to account for this explicitly in the design of adaptive plans. • Challenge of surprise: Adaptive policies are designed in light of the current foreseen uncertainties. However, developments that are not considered during the design phase as being plausible could still substantially affect the performance of adaptive policies. The shadow of the past, the inhibition of learning, and the challenge of surprise taken together suggest that there is a need for redesigning the concepts of monitoring and evaluation to support the implementation of adaptive plans. Innovations from control theory, triggered by the challenge of uncertainty in operational control, may offer solutions from which monitoring for adaptive planning can benefit. Specifically: (i) in control, observations are incorporated into the model through data assimilation, updating the present state, boundary conditions, and parameters based on new observations, diminishing the shadow of the past; (ii) adaptive control is a way to modify the characteristics of the internal model, incorporating new knowledge on the system, countervailing the inhibition of learning; and (iii) in closed-loop control, a continuous system update equips the controller with "inherent robustness", i.e. to capacity to adapts to new conditions even when these were not initially considered. We aim to explore how inherent robustness addresses the challenge of surprise. Innovations in model-based control might help to improve and adapt the models used to support adaptive delta management to new information (reducing uncertainty). Moreover, this would offer a starting point for using these models not only in the design of adaptive plans, but also as part of the monitoring. The proposed research requires multidisciplinary cooperation between control theory, the policy sciences, and integrated assessment modeling.

Evaluating capacity-building for mental health system strengthening in low- and middle-income countries for service users and caregivers, service planners and researchers.

PubMed

Hanlon, C; Semrau, M; Alem, A; Abayneh, S; Abdulmalik, J; Docrat, S; Evans-Lacko, S; Gureje, O; Jordans, M; Lempp, H; Mugisha, J; Petersen, I; Shidhaye, R; Thornicroft, G

2018-02-01

Efforts to support the scale-up of integrated mental health care in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) need to focus on building human resource capacity in health system strengthening, as well as in the direct provision of mental health care. In a companion editorial, we describe a range of capacity-building activities that are being implemented by a multi-country research consortium (Emerald: Emerging mental health systems in low- and middle-income countries) for (1) service users and caregivers, (2) service planners and policy-makers and (3) researchers in six LMICs (Ethiopia, India, Nepal, Nigeria, South Africa and Uganda). In this paper, we focus on the methodology being used to evaluate the impact of capacity-building in these three target groups. We first review the evidence base for approaches to evaluation of capacity-building, highlighting the gaps in this area. We then describe the adaptation of best practice for the Emerald capacity-building evaluation. The resulting mixed method evaluation framework was tailored to each target group and to each country context. We identified a need to expand the evidence base on indicators of successful capacity-building across the different target groups. To address this, we developed an evaluation plan to measure the adequacy and usefulness of quantitative capacity-building indicators when compared with qualitative evaluation. We argue that evaluation needs to be an integral part of capacity-building activities and that expertise needs to be built in methods of evaluation. The Emerald evaluation provides a potential model for capacity-building evaluation across key stakeholder groups and promises to extend understanding of useful indicators of success.

Capacity and readiness of civil society organisations to implement community case management of malaria in Kenya

PubMed Central

Marita, Enock; Oule, Jared; Mungai, Margaret; Thiam, Sylla; Ilako, Festus

2016-01-01

Introduction Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) contribute to achieving development goals through advocacy, social mobilisation and provision of health services. CSO programming is a key component of Global Fund (GF) grants; however, CSOs face technical and governance capacity challenges in grant utilisation leading to missed opportunities for improving health at community level. Amref Health Africa was appointed Principal Recipient of a GF grant aimed at scaling up community case management of malaria through CSOs as sub-recipients in western Kenya. To identify potential risks and strengthen grant management, Amref Health Africa and the Ministry of Health conducted a capacity needs assessment to determine the capacity of CSOs to effectively utilise grants. Methods 26 selected CSOs participated in this study. Document reviews and on-site assessments and observations were conducted using structured tool. The five main assessment areas were: governance and risk management; strategic and operational planning; monitoring and evaluation; programme management; and financial management. Overall performance was grouped into four categories: 3.0-2.5 (excellent), 2.0-2.4 (good), 1.5-1.9 (fair), and 1.0-1.4 (poor). Data were collected and analysed using Excel software. Results Twenty five out of 26 CSOs were legally compliant. 14(54%) CSOs were categorized as good; 7(27%) as excellent; 3(12%) as poor and 2(8%) as fair. Most CSOs had good programme management capacity but monitoring and evaluation presented the most capacity gaps. Conclusion More than 75% of the CSOs were rated as excellent or good. A capacity building plan, programme risk management plan and oversight mechanisms were important for successful grant implementation. PMID:28523081

Rough-Cut Capacity Planning in Multimodal Freight Transportation Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

transportation system to losses in es - tablished routes or assets? That is, what is the nature and length of system capability degradation due to these...Multimodal Rough-Cut Capacity Planning is mod- eled using the Resource Constrained Shortest Path Problem. We demonstrate how this approach supports...of non-zero ele - ments and the 0 entries depict appropriately dimensioned blocks of 0 entries.∣∣∣∣∑ k Ck ∣∣∣∣ Σ 0 0 0 0 Σ 0 0

Ecological balance between supply and demand based on cultivated land ecological footprint method in Guizhou Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Qinghuan; Zhou, Dequan; Bai, Xiaoyong; Xiao, Jianyong; Chen, Fei; Zeng, Cheng

2018-01-01

In order to construct the indicators of the balance between supply and demand of the cultivated land ecological carrying capacity, basing on the relation of the cultivated land ecological carrying capacity supply and demand, applying the model of Cultivated Land Ecological Footprints and the method of CIS and considering the factors of cultivated land production, taking the statistical data of 2015 as an example, and then made a systematic evaluation of the balance between supply and demand of the cultivated land ecological carrying capacity in Guizhou Province. The results show that (1) the spatial distribution of supply and demand of cultivated land ecological carrying capacity in Guizhou is unbalanced, and the northern and eastern parts are the overloading area, the middle, the south and the west parts are the balance area. (2) From the perspective of cultivated land structure, the crops with ecological carrying capacity surplus were rice, vegetables and peanuts, among which rice was the highest and the ecological balance index was 0.7354. The crops with ecological carrying capacity overload were potato, wheat, maize, rapeseeds, soybeans and cured tobacco, of which the index of potato up to 7.11, other types of indices are less than 1.5. The research can provide the ecological security early warning, the overall plan of land use and sustainable development of the area cultivated land with scientific evidence and decision support.

Intelligent transportation systems Professional Capacity Building Program : framework and overview for establishing a professional capacity building program for transportation management and traveler information services in support of ITS deployment

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-09-30

This document has been prepared to describe how the U.S. Department of Transportations (US DOT) Five- Year Strategic Plan for Professional Capacity Building for ITS Transportation Management and Traveler Information Services is being implemented, ...

Mentorship and competencies for applied chronic disease epidemiology.

PubMed

Lengerich, Eugene J; Siedlecki, Jennifer C; Brownson, Ross; Aldrich, Tim E; Hedberg, Katrina; Remington, Patrick; Siegel, Paul Z

2003-01-01

To understand the potential and establish a framework for mentoring as a method to develop professional competencies of state-level applied chronic disease epidemiologists, model mentorship programs were reviewed, specific competencies were identified, and competencies were then matched to essential public health services. Although few existing mentorship programs in public health were identified, common themes in other professional mentorship programs support the potential of mentoring as an effective means to develop capacity for applied chronic disease epidemiology. Proposed competencies for chronic disease epidemiologists in a mentorship program include planning, analysis, communication, basic public health, informatics and computer knowledge, and cultural diversity. Mentoring may constitute a viable strategy to build chronic disease epidemiology capacity, especially in public health agencies where resource and personnel system constraints limit opportunities to recruit and hire new staff.

Connected vehicle impacts on transportation planning analysis of the need for new and enhanced analysis tools, techniques and data : Highway Capacity Manual briefing.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-03-02

The principal objective of this project, Connected Vehicle Impacts on Transportation Planning, is to comprehensively assess how connected vehicles should be considered across the range of transportation planning processes and products developed...

University Extension and Urban Planning Programs: An Efficient Partnership.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kotval, Zenia

2003-01-01

The Urban Planning Practicum is a capstone course engaging Michigan State students in urban outreach, working with community organizations on neighborhood revitalization. It facilitates the experiential learning needs of urban planning students while assisting Extension staff in capacity building. Faculty-extension agent partnerships make it…

Increasing radiology capacity within the lung cancer pathway: centralised work-based support for trainee chest X-ray reporting radiographers.

PubMed

Woznitza, Nick; Steele, Rebecca; Piper, Keith; Burke, Stephen; Rowe, Susan; Bhowmik, Angshu; Maughn, Sue; Springett, Kate

2018-05-27

Diagnostic capacity and time to diagnosis are frequently identified as a barrier to improving cancer patient outcomes. Maximising the contribution of the medical imaging workforce, including reporting radiographers, is one way to improve service delivery. An efficient and effective centralised model of workplace training support was designed for a cohort of trainee chest X-ray (CXR) reporting radiographers. A comprehensive schedule of tutorials was planned and aligned with the curriculum of a post-graduate certificate in CXR reporting. Trainees were supported via a hub and spoke model (centralised training model), with the majority of education provided by a core group of experienced CXR reporting radiographers. Trainee and departmental feedback on the model was obtained using an online survey. Fourteen trainees were recruited from eight National Health Service Trusts across London. Significant efficiencies of scale were possible with centralised support (48 h) compared to traditional workplace support (348 h). Trainee and manager feedback overall was positive. Trainees and managers both reported good trainee support, translation of learning to practice and increased confidence. Logistics, including trainee travel and release, were identified as areas for improvement. Centralised workplace training support is an effective and efficient method to create sustainable diagnostic capacity and support improvements in the lung cancer pathway. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Medical Radiation Sciences published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australian Society of Medical Imaging and Radiation Therapy and New Zealand Institute of Medical Radiation Technology.

A Process-Based Assessment for Watershed Restoration Planning, Chehalis River Basin, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beechie, T. J.; Thompson, J.; Seixas, G.; Fogel, C.; Hall, J.; Chamberlin, J.; Kiffney, P.; Pollock, M. M.; Pess, G. R.

2016-12-01

Three key questions in identifying and prioritizing river restoration are: (1) How have habitats changed?, (2) What are the causes of those habitat changes?, and (3) How of those changes affected the species of interest? To answer these questions and assist aquatic habitat restoration planning in the Chehalis River basin, USA, we quantified habitat changes across the river network from headwaters to the estuary. We estimated historical habitat capacity to support salmonids using a combination of historical assessments, reference sites, and models. We also estimated current capacity from recent or newly created data sets. We found that losses of floodplain habitats and beaver ponds were substantial, while the estuary was less modified. Both tributary and main channel habitats—while modified—did not show particularly large habitat changes. Assessments of key processes that form and sustain habitats indicate that riparian functions (shading and wood recruitment) have been significantly altered, although peak and low flows have also been altered in some locations. The next step is to link our habitat assessments to salmon life-cycle models to evaluate which life stages and habitat types currently constrain population sizes of spring and fall Chinook salmon, coho salmon, and steelhead. By comparing model runs that represent different components of habitat losses identified in the analysis above, life-cycle models help identify which habitat losses have most impacted each species and population. This assessment will indicate which habitat types provide the greatest restoration potential, and help define a guiding vision for restoration efforts. Future analyses may include development and evaluation of alternative restoration scenarios, including different climate change scenarios, to refine our understanding of which restoration actions provide the greatest benefit to a salmon population.

Ultrasound waiting lists: rational queue or extended capacity?

PubMed

Brasted, Christopher

2008-06-01

The features and issues regarding clinical waiting lists in general and general ultrasound waiting lists in particular are reviewed, and operational aspects of providing a general ultrasound service are also discussed. A case study is presented describing a service improvement intervention in a UK NHS hospital's ultrasound department, from which arises requirements for a predictive planning model for an ultrasound waiting list. In the course of this, it becomes apparent that a booking system is a more appropriate way of describing the waiting list than a conventional queue. Distinctive features are identified from the literature and the case study as the basis for a predictive model, and a discrete event simulation model is presented which incorporates the distinctive features.

Progress report on LBL's numerical modeling studies on Cerro Prieto

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Halfman-Dooley, S.E.; Lippman, M.J.; Bodvarsson, G.S.

1989-04-01

An exploitation model of the Cerro Prieto geothermal system is needed to assess the energy capacity of the field, estimate its productive lifetime and develop an optimal reservoir management plan. The model must consider the natural state (i.e., pre-exploitation) conditions of the system and be able to predict changes in the reservoir thermodynamic conditions (and fluid chemistry) in response to fluid production (and injection). This paper discusses the results of a three-dimensional numerical simulation of the natural state conditions of the Cerro Prieto field and compares computed and observed pressure and temperature/enthalpy changes for the 1973--1987 production period. 16 refs.,more » 24 figs., 2 tabs.« less

[General aspects of planning and care in mental health].

PubMed

Saforcada, E

1976-09-01

This paper reviews some general concepts on Planning, especially in public and welfare sectors, stressing those concerning the major flaws in the argentine system of mental health. The author considers the definition of planning levels, and sets forth three: general plan, program and project. The correlative implementation is also considered. The importance of feed-back from adequate evaluation is stressed, emphasizing three aspects: a) evaluation of dynamics, rate and extent of decrease, increase or stagnation; b) assessment of efficacity of factors involved; c) control and stabilization of goals already attained. The necessity to develop a human ecology, encompassing socio-cultural and psycho-social factors is stressed, together with fostering theoretical research and the use of its results by implementation agents. Several differences among prevailing mental health actions are pointed out which allow a distinction between two typical models: clinical and sanitarist. The main differences between them lye on: standard location of working sites, nature of basic actions, field of action, hypothesis for working, including ethiological and ecological assumptions, theoretical and methodological framework. A series of criteria for evaluating sanitary techniques and strategies are set forth, among which: operative procedures, length of treatments, degree of therapeutic concentration, and general pragmatic criteria. The indicators reviewed are: degree of efficacity, covering, degree of perseverance in treatments, cultural barriers between patient and therapist, delegation of functions into special, first-rate sanitary agents, needs for the training of mental health workers. An attempt is made at developping general evaluation criteria for mental health planning, and several indicators are proposed, among which: a) cost/efficacity ratio, including in costs the use of economical, human and physical resources; b) preventive capacities of the community; c) capacities for the community to generate new types of organization and social dynamics able to cope with increasing mental health demands; first-rate personnel and mental health agents performance and training; e) assessment of "distances" between theoretical planning and actual implementation outlines; f) requirements of time for the implementation of programs.

Notification: Follow-up on a Framework for Developing Tribal Capacity

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Project #OA-FY12-0333, March 1, 2012. We plan to follow-up on the 2008 report Framework for Developing Tribal Capacity Needed in the Indian General Assistance Program. and the Agency’s corrective actions.

Measuring Road Network Vulnerability with Sensitivity Analysis

PubMed Central

Jun-qiang, Leng; Long-hai, Yang; Liu, Wei-yi; Zhao, Lin

2017-01-01

This paper focuses on the development of a method for road network vulnerability analysis, from the perspective of capacity degradation, which seeks to identify the critical infrastructures in the road network and the operational performance of the whole traffic system. This research involves defining the traffic utility index and modeling vulnerability of road segment, route, OD (Origin Destination) pair and road network. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis method is utilized to calculate the change of traffic utility index due to capacity degradation. This method, compared to traditional traffic assignment, can improve calculation efficiency and make the application of vulnerability analysis to large actual road network possible. Finally, all the above models and calculation method is applied to actual road network evaluation to verify its efficiency and utility. This approach can be used as a decision-supporting tool for evaluating the performance of road network and identifying critical infrastructures in transportation planning and management, especially in the resource allocation for mitigation and recovery. PMID:28125706

Optimal speech motor control and token-to-token variability: a Bayesian modeling approach.

PubMed

Patri, Jean-François; Diard, Julien; Perrier, Pascal

2015-12-01

The remarkable capacity of the speech motor system to adapt to various speech conditions is due to an excess of degrees of freedom, which enables producing similar acoustical properties with different sets of control strategies. To explain how the central nervous system selects one of the possible strategies, a common approach, in line with optimal motor control theories, is to model speech motor planning as the solution of an optimality problem based on cost functions. Despite the success of this approach, one of its drawbacks is the intrinsic contradiction between the concept of optimality and the observed experimental intra-speaker token-to-token variability. The present paper proposes an alternative approach by formulating feedforward optimal control in a probabilistic Bayesian modeling framework. This is illustrated by controlling a biomechanical model of the vocal tract for speech production and by comparing it with an existing optimal control model (GEPPETO). The essential elements of this optimal control model are presented first. From them the Bayesian model is constructed in a progressive way. Performance of the Bayesian model is evaluated based on computer simulations and compared to the optimal control model. This approach is shown to be appropriate for solving the speech planning problem while accounting for variability in a principled way.

Population models of burrowing mayfly recolonization in Western Lake Erie

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, C.P.; Schloesser, D.W.; Krieger, K.A.

1998-01-01

Burrowing mayflies, Hexagenia spp. (H. limbata and H. rigida), began recolonizing western Lake Erie during the 1990s. Survey data for mayfly nymph densities indicated that the population experienced exponential growth between 1991 and 1997. To predict the time to full recovery of the mayfly population, we fitted logistic models, ranging in carrying capacity from 600 to 2000 nymphs/m2, to these survey data. Based on the fitted logistic curves, we forecast that the mayfly population in western Lake Erie would achieve full recovery between years 1998 and 2000, depending on the carrying capacity of the western basin. Additionally, we estimated the mortality rate of nymphs in western Lake Erie during 1994 and then applied an age-based matrix model to the mayfly population. The results of the matrix population modeling corroborated the exponential growth model application in that both methods yielded an estimate of the population growth rate, r, in excess of 0.8 yr-1. This was the first evidence that mayfly populations are capable of recolonizing large aquatic ecosystems at rates comparable with those observed in much smaller lentic ecosystems. Our model predictions should prove valuable to managers of power plant facilities along the western basin in planning for mayfly emergences and to managers of the yellow perch (Perca flavescens) fishery in western Lake Erie.

Parallel runway requirement analysis study. Volume 1: The analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ebrahimi, Yaghoob S.

1993-01-01

The correlation of increased flight delays with the level of aviation activity is well recognized. A main contributor to these flight delays has been the capacity of airports. Though new airport and runway construction would significantly increase airport capacity, few programs of this type are currently underway, let alone planned, because of the high cost associated with such endeavors. Therefore, it is necessary to achieve the most efficient and cost effective use of existing fixed airport resources through better planning and control of traffic flows. In fact, during the past few years the FAA has initiated such an airport capacity program designed to provide additional capacity at existing airports. Some of the improvements that that program has generated thus far have been based on new Air Traffic Control procedures, terminal automation, additional Instrument Landing Systems, improved controller display aids, and improved utilization of multiple runways/Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC) approach procedures. A useful element to understanding potential operational capacity enhancements at high demand airports has been the development and use of an analysis tool called The PLAND_BLUNDER (PLB) Simulation Model. The objective for building this simulation was to develop a parametric model that could be used for analysis in determining the minimum safety level of parallel runway operations for various parameters representing the airplane, navigation, surveillance, and ATC system performance. This simulation is useful as: a quick and economical evaluation of existing environments that are experiencing IMC delays, an efficient way to study and validate proposed procedure modifications, an aid in evaluating requirements for new airports or new runways in old airports, a simple, parametric investigation of a wide range of issues and approaches, an ability to tradeoff air and ground technology and procedures contributions, and a way of considering probable blunder mechanisms and range of blunder scenarios. This study describes the steps of building the simulation and considers the input parameters, assumptions and limitations, and available outputs. Validation results and sensitivity analysis are addressed as well as outlining some IMC and Visual Meteorological Conditions (VMC) approaches to parallel runways. Also, present and future applicable technologies (e.g., Digital Autoland Systems, Traffic Collision and Avoidance System II, Enhanced Situational Awareness System, Global Positioning Systems for Landing, etc.) are assessed and recommendations made.

Assessment of lake sensitivity to acidic deposition in national parks of the Rocky Mountains.

PubMed

Nanus, L; Williams, M W; Campbell, D H; Tonnessen, K A; Blett, T; Clow, D W

2009-06-01

The sensitivity of high-elevation lakes to acidic deposition was evaluated in five national parks of the Rocky Mountains based on statistical relations between lake acid-neutralizing capacity concentrations and basin characteristics. Acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC) of 151 lakes sampled during synoptic surveys and basin-characteristic information derived from geographic information system (GIS) data sets were used to calibrate the statistical models. The explanatory basin variables that were considered included topographic parameters, bedrock type, and vegetation type. A logistic regression model was developed, and modeling results were cross-validated through lake sampling during fall 2004 at 58 lakes. The model was applied to lake basins greater than 1 ha in area in Glacier National Park (n = 244 lakes), Grand Teton National Park (n = 106 lakes), Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve (n = 11 lakes), Rocky Mountain National Park (n = 114 lakes), and Yellowstone National Park (n = 294 lakes). Lakes that had a high probability of having an ANC concentration <100 microeq/L, and therefore sensitive to acidic deposition, are located in basins with elevations >3000 m, with <30% of the catchment having northeast aspect and with >80% of the catchment bedrock having low buffering capacity. The modeling results indicate that the most sensitive lakes are located in Rocky Mountain National Park and Grand Teton National Park. This technique for evaluating the lake sensitivity to acidic deposition is useful for designing long-term monitoring plans and is potentially transferable to other remote mountain areas of the United States and the world.

Resource-poor settings: infrastructure and capacity building: care of the critically ill and injured during pandemics and disasters: CHEST consensus statement.

PubMed

Geiling, James; Burkle, Frederick M; Amundson, Dennis; Dominguez-Cherit, Guillermo; Gomersall, Charles D; Lim, Matthew L; Luyckx, Valerie; Sarani, Babak; Uyeki, Timothy M; West, T Eoin; Christian, Michael D; Devereaux, Asha V; Dichter, Jeffrey R; Kissoon, Niranjan

2014-10-01

Planning for mass critical care (MCC) in resource-poor or constrained settings has been largely ignored, despite their large populations that are prone to suffer disproportionately from natural disasters. Addressing MCC in these settings has the potential to help vast numbers of people and also to inform planning for better-resourced areas. The Resource-Poor Settings panel developed five key question domains; defining the term resource poor and using the traditional phases of disaster (mitigation/preparedness/response/recovery), literature searches were conducted to identify evidence on which to answer the key questions in these areas. Given a lack of data upon which to develop evidence-based recommendations, expert-opinion suggestions were developed, and consensus was achieved using a modified Delphi process. The five key questions were then separated as follows: definition, infrastructure and capacity building, resources, response, and reconstitution/recovery of host nation critical care capabilities and research. Addressing these questions led the panel to offer 33 suggestions. Because of the large number of suggestions, the results have been separated into two sections: part 1, Infrastructure/Capacity in this article, and part 2, Response/Recovery/Research in the accompanying article. Lack of, or presence of, rudimentary ICU resources and limited capacity to enhance services further challenge resource-poor and constrained settings. Hence, capacity building entails preventative strategies and strengthening of primary health services. Assistance from other countries and organizations is needed to mount a surge response. Moreover, planning should include when to disengage and how the host nation can provide capacity beyond the mass casualty care event.

Cooperative optimization of reconfigurable machine tool configurations and production process plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Nan; Li, Aiping; Xue, Wei

2012-09-01

The production process plan design and configurations of reconfigurable machine tool (RMT) interact with each other. Reasonable process plans with suitable configurations of RMT help to improve product quality and reduce production cost. Therefore, a cooperative strategy is needed to concurrently solve the above issue. In this paper, the cooperative optimization model for RMT configurations and production process plan is presented. Its objectives take into account both impacts of process and configuration. Moreover, a novel genetic algorithm is also developed to provide optimal or near-optimal solutions: firstly, its chromosome is redesigned which is composed of three parts, operations, process plan and configurations of RMTs, respectively; secondly, its new selection, crossover and mutation operators are also developed to deal with the process constraints from operation processes (OP) graph, otherwise these operators could generate illegal solutions violating the limits; eventually the optimal configurations for RMT under optimal process plan design can be obtained. At last, a manufacturing line case is applied which is composed of three RMTs. It is shown from the case that the optimal process plan and configurations of RMT are concurrently obtained, and the production cost decreases 6.28% and nonmonetary performance increases 22%. The proposed method can figure out both RMT configurations and production process, improve production capacity, functions and equipment utilization for RMT.

Awakening consumer stewardship of health benefits: prevalence and differentiation of new health plan models.

PubMed

Rosenthal, Meredith; Milstein, Arnold

2004-08-01

Despite widespread publicity of consumer-directed health plans, little is known about their prevalence and the extent to which their designs adequately reflect and support consumerism. We examined three types of consumer-directed health plans: health reimbursement accounts (HRAs), premium-tiered, and point-of-care tiered benefit plans. We sought to measure the extent to which these plans had diffused, as well as to provide a critical look at the ways in which these plans support consumerism. Consumerism in this context refers to efforts to enable informed consumer choice and consumers' involvement in managing their health. We also wished to determine whether mainstream health plans-health maintenance organization (HMO), point of service (POS), and preferred provider organization (PPO) models-were being influenced by consumerism. Our study uses national survey data collected by Mercer Human Resource Consulting from 680 national and regional commercial health benefit plans on HMO, PPO, POS, and consumer-directed products. We defined consumer-directed products as health benefit plans that provided (1) consumer incentives to select more economical health care options, including self-care and no care, and (2) information and support to inform such selections. We asked health plans that offered consumer-directed products about 2003 enrollment, basic design features, and the availability of decision support. We also asked mainstream health plans about their activities that supported consumerism (e.g., proactive outreach to inform or influence enrollee behavior, such as self-management or preventive care, reminders sent to patients with identified medical conditions.) We analyzed survey responses for all four product lines in order to identify those plans that offer health reimbursement accounts (HRAs), premium-tiered, or point-of-care tiered models as well as efforts of mainstream health plans to engage informed consumer decision making. The majority of enrollees in consumer-directed health plans are in tiered models (primarily point-of-care tiered networks) rather than HRAs. Tiers are predominantly determined based on both cost and quality criteria. Enrollment in HRAs has grown substantially, in part because of the entry of mainstream managed care plans into the consumer-directed market. Health reimbursement accounts, tiered networks, and traditional managed care plans vary in their capacity to support consumers in managing their health risks and selection of provider and treatment options, with HRAs providing the most and mainstream plans the least. While enrollment in consumer-directed health plans continues to grow steadily, it remains a tiny fraction of all employer-sponsored coverage. Decision support in these plans, a critical link to help consumers make more informed choices, is also still limited. This lack may be of concern in light of the fact that only a minority of such plans report that they monitor claims to protect against underuse. Tiered benefit models appear to be more readily accepted by the market than HRAs. If they are to succeed in optimizing consumers' utility from health benefit spending, careful attention needs to be paid to how well these models inform consumers about the consequences of their selections.

How do NHS organisations plan research capacity development? Strategies, strengths, and opportunities for improvement.

PubMed

Gee, Melanie; Cooke, Jo

2018-03-22

Research that is integral into a 'learning healthcare system' can promote cost effective services and knowledge creation. As such, research is defined as a 'core function' in UK health service organisations, and is often planned through research and development (R&D) strategies that aim to promote research activity and research capacity development (RCD). The discussion focuses around the content of ten R&D strategies for healthcare organisations in England and Scotland, with respect to RCD. These organisations were engaged with a research interest network called ACORN (Addressing Organisational Capacity to do Research Network) that included two Scottish Health Boards, four community and mental health trusts, two provincial district hospitals, and two teaching hospitals. We undertook a thematic documentary analysis of the R&D strategies which identified 11 'core activities' of RCD. The potential for building research capacity in these 'core activities' was established by reviewing them through the lens of a RCD framework. Core activities aimed to 'hard wire' RCD into health organisations. They demonstrated a complex interplay between developing a strong internal organisational infrastructure, and supporting individual career planning and skills development, in turn enabled by organisational processes. They also included activities to build stronger inter-organisational relationships and networks. Practitioner, manager and patient involvement was a cross cutting theme. The potential to demonstrate progress was included in plans through monitoring activity across all RCD principles. Strategies were primarily aimed at research production rather than research use. Developing 'actionable dissemination' was poorly addressed in the strategies, and represents an area for improvement. We describe strengths of RCD planning activities, and opportunities for improvement. We explore how national policy and research funders can influence health systems' engagement in research.

Hospital collaboration with public safety organizations on bioterrorism response.

PubMed

Niska, Richard W

2008-01-01

To identify hospital characteristics that predict collaboration with public safety organizations on bioterrorism response plans and mass casualty drills. The 2003 and 2004 Bioterrorism and Mass Casualty Supplements to the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey examined collaboration with emergency medical services (EMS), hazardous materials teams (HAZMAT), fire departments, and law enforcement. The sample included 112 geographic primary sampling units and 1,110 hospitals. Data were weighted by inverse selection probability, to yield nationally representative estimates. Characteristics included residency and medical school affiliation, bed capacity, ownership, urbanicity and Joint Commission accreditation. The response rate was 84.6%. Chi-square analysis was performed with alpha set at p < 0.05. Logistic regression modeling yielded odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals. During a bioterrorism incident, 68.9% of hospitals would contact EMS, 68.7% percent law enforcement, 61.6% fire departments, 58.1% HAZMAT, and 42.8% all four. About 74.2% had staged mass casualty drills with EMS, 70.4% with fire departments, 67.4% with law enforcement, 43.3% with HAZMAT, and 37.0% with all four. Predictors of drilling with some or all of these public safety organizations included larger bed capacity, nonprofit and proprietary ownership, and JCAHO accreditation. Medical school affiliation was a negative predictor of drilling with EMS. The majority of hospitals involve public safety organizations in their emergency plans or drills. Bed capacity was most predictive of drilling with these organizations. Medical school affiliation was the only characteristic negatively associated with drilling.

Assured communications and combat resiliency: the relationship between effective national communications and combat efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allgood, Glenn O.; Kuruganti, Phani Teja; Nutaro, James; Saffold, Jay

2009-05-01

Combat resiliency is the ability of a commander to prosecute, control, and consolidate his/her's sphere of influence in adverse and changing conditions. To support this, an infrastructure must exist that allows the commander to view the world in varying degrees of granularity with sufficient levels of detail to permit confidence estimates to be levied against decisions and course of actions. An infrastructure such as this will include the ability to effectively communicate context and relevance within and across the battle space. To achieve this will require careful thought, planning, and understanding of a network and its capacity limitations in post-event command and control. Relevance and impact on any existing infrastructure must be fully understood prior to deployment to exploit the system's full capacity and capabilities. In this view, the combat communication network is considered an integral part of or National communication network and infrastructure. This paper will describe an analytical tool set developed at ORNL and RNI incorporating complexity theory, advanced communications modeling, simulation, and visualization technologies that could be used as a pre-planning tool or post event reasoning application to support response and containment.

Challenges in implementing an advance care planning programme in long-term care.

PubMed

McGlade, Ciara; Daly, Edel; McCarthy, Joan; Cornally, Nicola; Weathers, Elizabeth; O'Caoimh, Rónán; Molloy, D William

2017-02-01

A high prevalence of cognitive impairment and frailty complicates the feasibility of advance care planning in the long-term-care population. Research aim: To identify challenges in implementing the 'Let Me Decide' advance care planning programme in long-term-care. This feasibility study had two phases: (1) staff education on advance care planning and (2) structured advance care planning by staff with residents and families. Participants and research context: long-term-care residents in two nursing homes and one community hospital. Ethical considerations: The local research ethics committee granted ethical approval. Following implementation, over 50% of all residents had completed some form of end-of-life care plan. Of the 70 residents who died in the post-implementation period, 14% had no care plan, 10% (with capacity) completed an advance care directive and lacking such capacity, 76% had an end-of-life care plan completed for them by the medical team, following discussions with the resident (if able) and family. The considerable logistical challenge of releasing staff for training triggered development of an e-learning programme to facilitate training. The challenges encountered were largely concerned with preserving resident's autonomy, avoiding harm and suboptimal or crisis decision-making, and ensuring residents were treated fairly through optimisation of finite resources. Although it may be too late for many long-term-care residents to complete their own advance care directive, the ' Let Me Decide' programme includes a feasible and acceptable option for structured end-of-life care planning for residents with variable capacity to complete an advance care directive, involving discussion with the resident (to the extent they were able) and their family. While end-of-life care planning was time-consuming to deliver, nursing staff were willing to overcome this and take ownership of the programme, once the benefits in improved communication and enhanced peace of mind among all parties involved became apparent in practice.

Pathways to Program Success: A Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) of Communities Putting Prevention to Work Case Study Programs

PubMed Central

Kane, Heather; Hinnant, Laurie; Day, Kristine; Council, Mary; Tzeng, Janice; Soler, Robin; Chambard, Megan; Roussel, Amy; Heirendt, Wendy

2016-01-01

Objective To examine the elements of capacity, a measure of organizational resources supporting program implementation that result in successful completion of public health program objectives in a public health initiative serving 50 communities. Design We used crisp set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to analyze case study and quantitative data collected during the evaluation of the Communities Putting Prevention to Work (CPPW) program. Setting CPPW awardee program staff and partners implemented evidence-based public health improvements in counties, cities, and organizations (eg, worksites, schools). Participants Data came from case studies of 22 CPPW awardee programs that implemented evidence-based, community-and organizational-level public health improvements. Intervention Program staff implemented a range of evidence-based public health improvements related to tobacco control and obesity prevention. Main Outcome Measure The outcome measure was completion of approximately 60% of work plan objectives. Results Analysis of the capacity conditions revealed 2 combinations for completing most work plan objectives: (1) having experience implementing public health improvements in combination with having a history of collaboration with partners; and (2) not having experience implementing public health improvements in combination with having leadership support. Conclusion Awardees have varying levels of capacity. The combinations identified in this analysis provide important insights into how awardees with different combinations of elements of capacity achieved most of their work plan objectives. Even when awardees lack some elements of capacity, they can build it through strategies such as hiring staff and engaging new partners with expertise. In some instances, lacking 1 or more elements of capacity did not prevent an awardee from successfully completing objectives. Implications for Policy & Practice These findings can help funders and practitioners recognize and assemble different aspects of capacity to achieve more successful programs; awardees can draw on extant organizational strengths to compensate when other aspects of capacity are absent. PMID:27598714

How many hospital beds?

PubMed

Green, Linda V

For many years, average bed occupancy level has been the primary measure that has guided hospital bed capacity decisions at both policy and managerial levels. Even now, the common wisdom that there is an excess of beds nationally has been based on a federal target of 85% occupancy that was developed about 25 years ago. This paper examines data from New York state and uses queueing analysis to estimate bed unavailability in intensive care units (ICUs) and obstetrics units. Using various patient delay standards, units that appear to have insufficient capacity are identified. The results indicate that as many as 40% of all obstetrics units and 90% of ICUs have insufficient capacity to provide an appropriate bed when needed. This contrasts sharply with what would be deduced using standard average occupancy targets. Furthermore, given the model's assumptions, these estimates are likely to be conservative. These findings illustrate that if service quality is deemed important, hospitals need to plan capacity based on standards that reflect the ability to place patients in appropriate beds in a timely fashion rather than on target occupancy levels. Doing so will require the collection and analysis of operational data-such as demands for and use of beds, and patient delays--which generally are not available.

A socioecological analysis of the determinants of national public health nutrition work force capacity: Australia as a case study.

PubMed

Hughes, Roger

2006-01-01

This article uses a socioecological analytical approach to assess the capacity of the public health nutrition work force in Australia as a prelude to work force development strategy planning. It demonstrates how the socioecological model can be used to assess and inform the development of the infrastructure required for effective public health nutrition effort. An interpretive case study method was used involving triangular analysis of quantitative and qualitative data from multiple sources including semistructured interviews with advanced-level practitioners, literature review, a cross-sectional national work force survey, and position description audit and consensus development using a Delphi study. The findings of this analysis indicate that the Australian public health nutrition work force's capacity to effectively address priority nutrition issues is limited by determinants that can be categorized as relating to human resource infrastructure, organizational and policy environments, intelligence access and use, practice improvement and learning systems, and work force preparation. This socioecological analysis supports an intelligence-based focus for work force development effort in Australia and a conceptual framework for work force capacity assessment with potential applications in other countries.

Promoting country ownership and stewardship of health programs: The global fund experience.

PubMed

Atun, Rifat; Kazatchkine, Michel

2009-11-01

The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria was established in 2002 to provide large-scale financing to middle- and low-income countries to intensify the fight against the 3 diseases. Its model has enabled strengthening of local health leadership to improve governance of HIV programs in 5 ways. First, the Global Fund has encouraged development of local capacity to generate technically sound proposals reflecting country needs and priorities. Second, through dual-track financing-where countries are encouraged to nominate at least one government and one nongovernment principal recipient to lead program implementation-the Global Fund has enabled civil society and other nongovernmental organizations to play a critical role in the design, implementation, and oversight of HIV programs. Third, investments to strengthen community systems have enabled greater involvement of community leaders in effective mobilization of demand and scale-up for services to reach vulnerable groups. Fourth, capacity building outside the state sector has improved community participation in governance of public health. Finally, an emphasis on inclusiveness and diversity in planning, implementation, and oversight has broadly enhanced country coordination capacity. Strengthening local leadership capacity and governance are critical to building efficient and equitable health systems to deliver universal coverage of HIV services.

Assessing materials handling and storage capacities in port terminals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinu, O.; Roşca, E.; Popa, M.; Roşca, M. A.; Rusca, A.

2017-08-01

Terminals constitute the factual interface between different modes and, as a result, buffer stocks are unavoidable whenever transport flows with different discontinuities meet. This is the reason why assessing materials handling and storage capacities is an important issue in the course of attempting to increase operative planning of logistic processes in terminals. Proposed paper starts with a brief review of the compatibilities between different sorts of materials and corresponding transport modes and after, a literature overview of the studies related to ports terminals and their specialization is made. As a methodology, discrete event simulation stands as a feasible technique for assessing handling and storage capacities at the terminal, taking into consideration the multi-flows interaction and the non-uniform arrivals of vessels and inland vehicles. In this context, a simulation model, that integrates the activities of an inland water terminal and describes the essential interactions between the subsystems which influence the terminal capacity, is developed. Different scenarios are simulated for diverse sorts of materials, leading to bottlenecks identification, performance indicators such as average storage occupancy rate, average dwell or transit times estimations, and their evolution is analysed in order to improve the transfer operations in the logistic process

Scenarios for Deep Carbon Emission Reductions from Electricity by 2050 in Western North America using the Switch Electric Power Sector Planning Model: California's Carbon Challenge Phase II, Volume II

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, James; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah

2014-01-01

This study used a state-of-the-art planning model called SWITCH for the electric power system to investigate the evolution of the power systems of California and western North America from present-day to 2050 in the context of deep decarbonization of the economy. Researchers concluded that drastic power system carbon emission reductions were feasible by 2050 under a wide range of possible futures. The average cost of power in 2050 would range between $149 to $232 per megawatt hour across scenarios, a 21 to 88 percent increase relative to a business-as-usual scenario, and a 38 to 115 percent increase relative to themore » present-day cost of power. The power system would need to undergo sweeping change to rapidly decarbonize. Between present-day and 2030 the evolution of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council power system was dominated by implementing aggressive energy efficiency measures, installing renewable energy and gas-fired generation facilities and retiring coal-fired generation. Deploying wind, solar and geothermal power in the 2040 timeframe reduced power system emissions by displacing gas-fired generation. This trend continued for wind and solar in the 2050 timeframe but was accompanied by large amounts of new storage and long-distance high-voltage transmission capacity. Electricity storage was used primarily to move solar energy from the daytime into the night to charge electric vehicles and meet demand from electrified heating. Transmission capacity over the California border increased by 40 - 220 percent by 2050, implying that transmission siting, permitting, and regional cooperation will become increasingly important. California remained a net electricity importer in all scenarios investigated. Wind and solar power were key elements in power system decarbonization in 2050 if no new nuclear capacity was built. The amount of installed gas capacity remained relatively constant between present-day and 2050, although carbon capture and sequestration was installed on some gas plants by 2050.« less

Essays in energy policy and planning modeling under uncertainty: Value of information, optimistic biases, and simulation of capacity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Ming-Che

Optimization and simulation are popular operations research and systems analysis tools for energy policy modeling. This dissertation addresses three important questions concerning the use of these tools for energy market (and electricity market) modeling and planning under uncertainty. (1) What is the value of information and cost of disregarding different sources of uncertainty for the U.S. energy economy? (2) Could model-based calculations of the performance (social welfare) of competitive and oligopolistic market equilibria be optimistically biased due to uncertainties in objective function coefficients? (3) How do alternative sloped demand curves perform in the PJM capacity market under economic and weather uncertainty? How does curve adjustment and cost dynamics affect the capacity market outcomes? To address the first question, two-stage stochastic optimization is utilized in the U.S. national MARKAL energy model; then the value of information and cost of ignoring uncertainty are estimated for three uncertainties: carbon cap policy, load growth and natural gas prices. When an uncertainty is important, then explicitly considering those risks when making investments will result in better performance in expectation (positive expected cost of ignoring uncertainty). Furthermore, eliminating the uncertainty would improve strategies even further, meaning that improved forecasts of future conditions are valuable ( i.e., a positive expected value of information). Also, the value of policy coordination shows the difference between a strategy developed under the incorrect assumption of no carbon cap and a strategy correctly anticipating imposition of such a cap. For the second question, game theory models are formulated and the existence of optimistic (positive) biases in market equilibria (both competitive and oligopoly markets) are proved, in that calculated social welfare and producer profits will, in expectation, exceed the values that will actually be received. Theoretical analyses prove the general existence of this bias for both competitive and oligopolistic models when production costs and demand curves are uncertain. Also demonstrated is an optimistic bias for the net benefits of introducing a new technology into a market when the cost of the new technology is uncertainty. The optimistic biases are quantified for a model of the northwest European electricity market (including Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands). Demand uncertainty results in an optimistic bias of 150,000-220,000 [Euro]/hr of total surplus and natural gas price uncertainty yields a smaller bias of 8,000-10,000 [Euro]/hr for total surplus. Further, adding a new uncertain technology (biomass) to the set of possible generation methods almost doubles the optimistic bias (14,000-18,000 [Euro]/hr). The third question concerns ex ante evaluation of the Reliability Pricing Model (RPM)---the new PJM capacity market---launched in June 2007. A Monte Carlo simulation model is developed to simulate PJM capacity market and predict market performance, producer revenue, and consumer payments. An important input to RPM is a demand curve for capacity; several alternative demand curves are compared, and sensitivity analyses conducted of those conclusions. One conclusion is that the sloped demand curves are more robust because those demand curves gives higher reliability with lower consumer payments. In addition, the performance of the curves is evaluated for a more sophisticated market design in which the demand curve can be adjusted in response to previous market outcomes and where the capital costs may change unexpectedly. The simulation shows that curve adjustment increases system reliability with lower consumer payments. Also the effect of learning-by-doing, leading to lower plant capital costs, leads to higher average reserve margin and lower consumer payments. In contrast, a the sudden rise in capital costs causes a decrease in reliability and an increase in consumer payments.

A three-dimensional visualization preoperative treatment planning system for microwave ablation in liver cancer: a simulated experimental study.

PubMed

Liu, Fangyi; Cheng, Zhigang; Han, Zhiyu; Yu, Xiaoling; Yu, Mingan; Liang, Ping

2017-06-01

To evaluate the application value of three-dimensional (3D) visualization preoperative treatment planning system (VPTPS) for microwave ablation (MWA) in liver cancer. The study was a simulated experimental study using the CT imaging data of patients in DICOM format in a model. Three students (who learn to interventional ultrasound for less than 1 year) and three experts (who have more than 5 years of experience in ablation techniques) in MWA performed the preoperative planning for 39 lesions (mean diameter 3.75 ± 1.73 cm) of 32 patients using two-dimensional (2D) image planning method and 3D VPTPS, respectively. The number of planning insertions, planning ablation rate, and damage rate to surrounding structures were compared between2D image planning group and 3D VPTPS group. There were fewer planning insertions, lower ablation rate and higher damage rate to surrounding structures in 2D image planning group than 3D VPTPS group for both students and experts. When using the 2D ultrasound planning method, students could carry out fewer planning insertions and had a lower ablation rate than the experts (p < 0.001). However, there was no significant difference in planning insertions, the ablation rate, and the incidence of damage to the surrounding structures between students and experts using 3D VPTPS. 3DVPTPS enables inexperienced physicians to have similar preoperative planning results to experts, and enhances students' preoperative planning capacity, which may improve the therapeutic efficacy and reduce the complication of MWA.

Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict and monitor the number of beds occupied during a SARS outbreak in a tertiary hospital in Singapore.

PubMed

Earnest, Arul; Chen, Mark I; Ng, Donald; Sin, Leo Yee

2005-05-11

The main objective of this study is to apply autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to make real-time predictions on the number of beds occupied in Tan Tock Seng Hospital, during the recent SARS outbreak. This is a retrospective study design. Hospital admission and occupancy data for isolation beds was collected from Tan Tock Seng hospital for the period 14th March 2003 to 31st May 2003. The main outcome measure was daily number of isolation beds occupied by SARS patients. Among the covariates considered were daily number of people screened, daily number of people admitted (including observation, suspect and probable cases) and days from the most recent significant event discovery. We utilized the following strategy for the analysis. Firstly, we split the outbreak data into two. Data from 14th March to 21st April 2003 was used for model development. We used structural ARIMA models in an attempt to model the number of beds occupied. Estimation is via the maximum likelihood method using the Kalman filter. For the ARIMA model parameters, we considered the simplest parsimonious lowest order model. We found that the ARIMA (1,0,3) model was able to describe and predict the number of beds occupied during the SARS outbreak well. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the training set and validation set were 5.7% and 8.6% respectively, which we found was reasonable for use in the hospital setting. Furthermore, the model also provided three-day forecasts of the number of beds required. Total number of admissions and probable cases admitted on the previous day were also found to be independent prognostic factors of bed occupancy. ARIMA models provide useful tools for administrators and clinicians in planning for real-time bed capacity during an outbreak of an infectious disease such as SARS. The model could well be used in planning for bed-capacity during outbreaks of other infectious diseases as well.

Assimilative capacity-based emission load management in a critically polluted industrial cluster.

PubMed

Panda, Smaranika; Nagendra, S M Shiva

2017-12-01

In the present study, a modified approach was adopted to quantify the assimilative capacity (i.e., the maximum emission an area can take without violating the permissible pollutant standards) of a major industrial cluster (Manali, India) and to assess the effectiveness of adopted air pollution control measures at the region. Seasonal analysis of assimilative capacity was carried out corresponding to critical, high, medium, and low pollution levels to know the best and worst conditions for industrial operations. Bottom-up approach was employed to quantify sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), and particulate matter (aerodynamic diameter <10 μm; PM 10 ) emissions at a fine spatial resolution of 500 × 500 m 2 in Manali industrial cluster. AERMOD (American Meteorological Society/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model), an U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulatory model, was used for estimating assimilative capacity. Results indicated that 22.8 tonnes/day of SO 2 , 7.8 tonnes/day of NO 2 , and 7.1 tonnes/day of PM 10 were emitted from the industries of Manali. The estimated assimilative capacities for SO 2 , NO 2 , and PM 10 were found to be 16.05, 17.36, and 19.78 tonnes/day, respectively. It was observed that the current SO 2 emissions were exceeding the estimated safe load by 6.7 tonnes/day, whereas PM 10 and NO 2 were within the safe limits. Seasonal analysis of assimilative capacity showed that post-monsoon had the lowest load-carrying capacity, followed by winter, summer, and monsoon seasons, and the allowable SO 2 emissions during post-monsoon and winter seasons were found to be 35% and 26% lower, respectively, when compared with monsoon season. The authors present a modified approach for quantitative estimation of assimilative capacity of a critically polluted Indian industrial cluster. The authors developed a geo-coded fine-resolution PM 10 , NO 2 , and SO 2 emission inventory for Manali industrial area and further quantitatively estimated its season-wise assimilative capacities corresponding to various pollution levels. This quantitative representation of assimilative capacity (in terms of emissions), when compared with routine qualitative representation, provides better data for quantifying carrying capacity of an area. This information helps policy makers and regulatory authorities to develop an effective mitigation plan for air pollution abatement.

Water-Constrained Electric Sector Capacity Expansion Modeling Under Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.; Corsi, F.; Prousevitch, A.; Rangwala, I.

2015-12-01

Over 80% of U.S. electricity generation uses a thermoelectric process, which requires significant quantities of water for power plant cooling. This water requirement exposes the electric sector to vulnerabilities related to shifts in water availability driven by climate change as well as reductions in power plant efficiencies. Electricity demand is also sensitive to climate change, which in most of the United States leads to warming temperatures that increase total cooling-degree days. The resulting demand increase is typically greater for peak demand periods. This work examines the sensitivity of the development and operations of the U.S. electric sector to the impacts of climate change using an electric sector capacity expansion model that endogenously represents seasonal and local water resource availability as well as climate impacts on water availability, electricity demand, and electricity system performance. Capacity expansion portfolios and water resource implications from 2010 to 2050 are shown at high spatial resolution under a series of climate scenarios. Results demonstrate the importance of water availability for future electric sector capacity planning and operations, especially under more extreme hotter and drier climate scenarios. In addition, region-specific changes in electricity demand and water resources require region-specific responses that depend on local renewable resource availability and electricity market conditions. Climate change and the associated impacts on water availability and temperature can affect the types of power plants that are built, their location, and their impact on regional water resources.

Providing Transparent Information to Empower Students' Decision Making and Develop Institutional Capacity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodwell, Gary

2014-01-01

This chapter describes the University of Hawaii's work to develop an online navigational tool that helps students develop and execute their educational plans, and assists colleges with ensuring that they have the capacity to meet students' needs.

Evaluation and Follow-Up of Policies, Plans and Reforms of Education: Round Table V.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, Paris (France). Div. of Educational Policy and Planning.

The proceedings from a round table held at an international symposium focuses on the planning and management of educational development. The following papers are included in this document: "Overall View on the Evaluation of Educational Plans and Reforms (Ingemar Fagerlind); "Evaluation and Research Capacity-Building in Education Meeting…

Challenges to achieving sustainable community health development within a donor aid business model.

PubMed

Ashwell, Helen; Barclay, Lesley

2010-06-01

This paper explores the paradox of donor aid being delivered through a business model through a case study in Papua New Guinea. A retrospective review of project implementation and an outcome evaluation provided an opportunity to examine the long-term results and sustainability of a large project. Analysis was informed by data collected from 175 interviews (national, provincial, district and village), 93 community discussions and observations across 10 provinces. Problems with the business model of delivering aid were evident from implementation data and in an evaluation conducted two years after project completion (2006). Compounding the business model effect were challenges of over-ambitious project goals with limited flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances, a donor payment system requiring short-term productivity and excessive reporting requirements. An overly ambitious project design, donor dominance within the business model and limited local counterpart capacity created problems in the community initiatives component of the project. Contractual pressures can negatively influence long-term outcomes that require development of local leadership and capacity. Future planning for donor project designs needs to be flexible, smaller in scope and have a longer timeframe of seven to 10 years. Donor-funded projects need to be sufficiently flexible to apply proven principles of community development, build local ownership and allow adequate time to build counterpart knowledge and skills.

Assessment of the service performance of drainage system and transformation of pipeline network based on urban combined sewer system model.

PubMed

Peng, Hai-Qin; Liu, Yan; Wang, Hong-Wu; Ma, Lu-Ming

2015-10-01

In recent years, due to global climate change and rapid urbanization, extreme weather events occur to the city at an increasing frequency. Waterlogging is common because of heavy rains. In this case, the urban drainage system can no longer meet the original design requirements, resulting in traffic jams and even paralysis and post a threat to urban safety. Therefore, it provides a necessary foundation for urban drainage planning and design to accurately assess the capacity of the drainage system and correctly simulate the transport effect of drainage network and the carrying capacity of drainage facilities. This study adopts InfoWorks Integrated Catchment Management (ICM) to present the two combined sewer drainage systems in Yangpu District, Shanghai (China). The model can assist the design of the drainage system. Model calibration is performed based on the historical rainfall events. The calibrated model is used for the assessment of the outlet drainage and pipe loads for the storm scenario currently existing or possibly occurring in the future. The study found that the simulation and analysis results of the drainage system model were reliable. They could fully reflect the service performance of the drainage system in the study area and provide decision-making support for regional flood control and transformation of pipeline network.

Promotion of renewable energy in some MENA region countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdeladim, K.; Bouchakour, S.; Arab, A. Hadj; Ould Amrouche, S.; Yassaa, N.

2018-05-01

In recent years Middle East and North African (MENA) countries, are showing efforts about the integration of renewable electricity into their power markets. Indeed, installations were already achieved and renewable energy programs were launched. The Algerian program remains one of the most ambitious with its installation capacity up to 22GW of power generating to be installed by 2030. More than 60 % of the total capacity is planned to be solar photovoltaic (PV). Like Algeria, Morocco has integrated development project with a target to develop by 2020 a 2000 MW capacity of electricity production from solar energy. The Tunisian government has launched its first phase of the renewable power generation program, with an objective to install 1,000 MW of renewable power capacity over the 2017-2020 periods, where 650 MW of the total capacity is planned to be solar and 350 MW wind. One of the leading Arab country in wind energy, these recent years is Egypt, with its more than 700 megawatt of operational power generation plants and has launched significant projects development in solar energy. Regarding Jordan, the government has taken different steps in this field of energy with a Strategy plan 2007-2020, by implementing a large scale of projects on renewable energy sources, with an objective to cover 10% of the country’s energy supply, from renewable sources by the year 2020. Concerning Lebanon, the country is looking to attain an integration of 12 % by 2020.

Vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous climate and socioeconomic changes: a double exposure analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangpenchan, R.

2011-12-01

This research explores the vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous exposure by climate and socioeconomic change -- so-called "double exposure." Both processes influence Thailand's rice production system, but the vulnerabilities associated with their interactions are unknown. To understand this double exposure, I adopts a mixed-method, qualitative-quantitative analytical approach consisting of three phases of analysis involving a Vulnerability Scoping Diagram, a Principal Component Analysis, and the EPIC crop model using proxy datasets collected from secondary data sources at provincial scales.The first and second phases identify key variables representing each of the three dimensions of vulnerability -- exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicating that the greatest vulnerability in the rice production system occurs in households and areas with high exposure to climate change, high sensitivity to climate and socioeconomic stress, and low adaptive capacity. In the third phase, the EPIC crop model simulates rice yields associated with future climate change projected by CSIRO and MIROC climate models. Climate change-only scenarios project the decrease in yields by 10% from the current productivity during 2016-2025 and 30% during 2045-2054. Scenarios applying both climate change and improved technology and management practices show that a 50% increase in rice production is possible, but requires strong collaboration between sectors to advance agricultural research and technology and requires strong adaptive capacity in the rice production system characterized by well-developed social capital, social networks, financial capacity, and infrastructure and household mobility at the local scale. The vulnerability assessment and climate and crop adaptation simulations used here provide useful information to decision makers developing vulnerability reduction plans in the face of concurrent climate and socioeconomic change.

Quantitative analysis of ecological effects for land use planning based on ecological footprint method: a case research in Nanyang City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jing; Liu, Yaolin; Chen, Xinming

2008-10-01

The research of coordinated development between land use and ecological building is a new problem with the development of country economy, whose intention is to improve economy development and protect eco-environment in order to realize regional sustainable development. Evaluating human effects on the ecosystem by a comprehensive, scientific and quantitative method is a critical issue in the process of general land use planning. At present, ecological footprint methodology, as an excellent educational tool applicable to global issues, is essential for quantifying humanity's consumption of natural capital, for overall assessments of human impact on earth as well as for general land use planning. However, quantitative studies on the development trends of ecological footprint (EF) time series and biological capacity (BC) time series in a given region are still rare. Taking Nanyang City as a case study, this paper presents two quantitative estimate indices over time scale called the change rate and scissors difference to quantitatively analyze the trends of EF and BC over the planning period in general land use planning form 1997-2004 and to evaluate the ecological effects of the land use general planning form 1997 to.2010. The results showed that: 1 In Nanyang city, trends of the per capita EF and BC were on the way round, and the ecological deficit enhanced from 1997 to 2010. 2 The difference between the two development trends of per capita EF and BC had been increasing rapidly and the conflict between the EF and BC was aggravated from 1997 to 2010. 3 The general land use planning (1997 - 2010) of Nanyang city had produced some positive effects on the local ecosystem, but the expected biological capacity in 2010 can hardly be realized following this trend. Therefore, this paper introduces a "trinity" land use model in the guidelines of environment- friendly land use pattern and based on the actual situation of Nanyang city, with the systemic synthesis of land utilization of the cities, the village and the suburb as a principal part and the land development reorganization and the ecological environment construction as the key point.

[The role of patient flow and surge capacity for in-hospital response in mass casualty events].

PubMed

Sefrin, Peter; Kuhnigk, Herbert

2008-03-01

Mass casualty events make demands on emergency services and disaster control. However, optimized in- hospital response defines the quality of definitive care. Therefore, German federal law governs the role of hospitals in mass casualty incidents. In hospital casualty surge is depending on resources that have to be expanded with a practicable alarm plan. Thus, in-hospital mass casualty management planning is recommended to be organized by specialized persons. To minimise inhospital patient overflow casualty surge principles have to be implemented in both, pre-hospital and in-hospital disaster planning. World soccer championship 2006 facilitated the initiation of surge and damage control principles in in-hospital disaster planning strategies for German hospitals. The presented concept of strict control of in-hospital patient flow using surge principles minimises the risk of in-hospital breakdown and increases definitive hospital treatment capacity in mass casualty incidents.

Potential impact of climate change to the future streamflow of Yellow River Basin based on CMIP5 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiaoli; Zheng, Weifei; Ren, Liliang; Zhang, Mengru; Wang, Yuqian; Liu, Yi; Yuan, Fei; Jiang, Shanhu

2018-02-01

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is the largest river basin in northern China, which has suffering water scarcity and drought hazard for many years. Therefore, assessments the potential impacts of climate change on the future streamflow in this basin is very important for local policy and planning on food security. In this study, based on the observations of 101 meteorological stations in YRB, equidistant CDF matching (EDCDFm) statistical downscaling approach was applied to eight climate models under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution was developed based on downscaled fields for simulating streamflow in the future period over YRB. The results show that with the global warming trend, the annual streamflow will reduced about 10 % during the period of 2021-2050, compared to the base period of 1961-1990 in YRB. There should be suitable water resources planning to meet the demands of growing populations and future climate changing in this region.

Advanced musculoskeletal physiotherapists in post arthroplasty review clinics: a state wide implementation program evaluation.

PubMed

Harding, Paula; Burge, Angela; Walter, Kerrie; Shaw, Bridget; Page, Carolyn; Phan, Uyen; Terrill, Desiree; Liew, Susan

2018-03-01

To evaluate outcomes following a state-wide implementation of post arthroplasty review (PAR) clinics for patients following total hip and knee arthroplasty, led by advanced musculoskeletal physiotherapists in collaboration with orthopaedic specialists. A prospective observational study analysed data collected by 10 implementation sites (five metropolitan and five regional/rural centres) between September 2014 and June 2015. The Victorian Innovation and Reform Impact Assessment Framework was used to assess efficiency, effectiveness (access to care, safety and quality, workforce capacity, utilisation of skill sets, patient and workforce satisfaction) and sustainability (stakeholder engagement, succession planning and availability of ongoing funding). 2362 planned occasions of service (OOS) were provided for 2057 patients. Reduced patient wait times from referral to appointment were recorded and no adverse events occurred. Average cost savings across 10 sites was AUD$38 per OOS (Baseline $63, PAR clinic $35), representing a reduced pathway cost of 44%. Average annual predicted total value of increased orthopaedic specialist capacity was $11,950 per PAR clinic (range $6149 to $23,400). The Australian Orthopaedic Association review guidelines were met (8/10 sites, 80%) and patient-reported outcome measures were introduced as routine clinical care. High workforce and patient satisfaction were expressed. Eighteen physiotherapists were trained creating a sustainable workforce. Eight sites secured ongoing funding. The PAR clinics delivered a safe, cost-efficient model of care that improved patient access and quality of care compared to traditional specialist-led workforce models. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

48 CFR 5108.070 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... accompanying Industrial Preparedness Program Production Capacity Survey (DD Form 1519 TEST). The firm is... is contractually bound by inclusion of AFARS 5152.208-9001 in their contract to maintain production capacity for a negotiated length of time, to conduct subcontractor planning, and to produce specified...

48 CFR 5108.070 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... accompanying Industrial Preparedness Program Production Capacity Survey (DD Form 1519 TEST). The firm is... is contractually bound by inclusion of AFARS 5152.208-9001 in their contract to maintain production capacity for a negotiated length of time, to conduct subcontractor planning, and to produce specified...

48 CFR 5108.070 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... accompanying Industrial Preparedness Program Production Capacity Survey (DD Form 1519 TEST). The firm is... is contractually bound by inclusion of AFARS 5152.208-9001 in their contract to maintain production capacity for a negotiated length of time, to conduct subcontractor planning, and to produce specified...

48 CFR 5108.070 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... accompanying Industrial Preparedness Program Production Capacity Survey (DD Form 1519 TEST). The firm is... is contractually bound by inclusion of AFARS 5152.208-9001 in their contract to maintain production capacity for a negotiated length of time, to conduct subcontractor planning, and to produce specified...

Report: EPA Needs an Agency-Wide Plan to Provide Tribal Solid Waste Management Capacity Assistance

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #11-P-0171, March 21, 2011. EPA cannot determine whether its efforts are assisting tribal governments in developing the capacity to manage solid waste or reduce the risks of open dumps in Indian country.

Qualitative study to develop processes and tools for the assessment and tracking of African institutions' capacity for operational health research.

PubMed

Wallis, Selina; Cole, Donald C; Gaye, Oumar; Mmbaga, Blandina T; Mwapasa, Victor; Tagbor, Harry; Bates, Imelda

2017-09-05

Research is key to achieving global development goals. Our objectives were to develop and test an evidence-informed process for assessing health research management and support systems (RMSS) in four African universities and for tracking interventions to address capacity gaps. Four African universities. 83 university staff and students from 11 cadres. A literature-informed 'benchmark' was developed and used to itemise all components of a university's health RMSS. Data on all components were collected during site visits to four African universities using interview guides, document reviews and facilities observation guides. Gaps in RMSS capacity were identified against the benchmark and institutional action plans developed to remedy gaps. Progress against indicators was tracked over 15 months and common challenges and successes identified. Common gaps in operational health research capacity included no accessible research strategy, a lack of research e-tracking capability and inadequate quality checks for proposal submissions and contracts. Feedback indicated that the capacity assessment was comprehensive and generated practical actions, several of which were no-cost. Regular follow-up helped to maintain focus on activities to strengthen health research capacity in the face of challenges. Identification of each institutions' strengths and weaknesses against an evidence-informed benchmark enabled them to identify gaps in in their operational health research systems, to develop prioritised action plans, to justify resource requests to fulfil the plans and to track progress in strengthening RMSS. Use of a standard benchmark, approach and tools enabled comparisons across institutions which has accelerated production of evidence about the science of research capacity strengthening. The tools could be used by institutions seeking to understand their strengths and to address gaps in research capacity. Research capacity gaps that were common to several institutions could be a 'smart' investment for governments and health research funders. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Wargame Simulation Theory and Evaluation Method for Emergency Evacuation of Residents from Urban Waterlogging Disaster Area

PubMed Central

Chen, Peng; Zhang, Jiquan; Sun, Yingyue; Liu, Xiaojing

2016-01-01

Urban waterlogging seriously threatens the safety of urban residents and properties. Wargame simulation research on resident emergency evacuation from waterlogged areas can determine the effectiveness of emergency response plans for high risk events at low cost. Based on wargame theory and emergency evacuation plans, we used a wargame exercise method, incorporating qualitative and quantitative aspects, to build an urban waterlogging disaster emergency shelter using a wargame exercise and evaluation model. The simulation was empirically tested in Daoli District of Harbin. The results showed that the wargame simulation scored 96.40 points, evaluated as good. From the simulation results, wargame simulation of urban waterlogging emergency procedures for disaster response can improve the flexibility and capacity for command, management and decision-making in emergency management departments. PMID:28009805

Developing capacity-building activities for mental health system strengthening in low- and middle-income countries for service users and caregivers, service planners, and researchers.

PubMed

Semrau, M; Alem, A; Abdulmalik, J; Docrat, S; Evans-Lacko, S; Gureje, O; Kigozi, F; Lempp, H; Lund, C; Petersen, I; Shidhaye, R; Thornicroft, G; Hanlon, C

2018-02-01

There is increasing international recognition of the need to build capacity to strengthen mental health systems. This is a fundamental goal of the 'Emerging mental health systems in low- and middle-income countries' (Emerald) programme, which is being implemented in six low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) (Ethiopia, India, Nepal, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda). This paper discusses Emerald's capacity-building approaches and outputs for three target groups in mental health system strengthening: (1) mental health service users and caregivers, (2) service planners and policy-makers, and (3) mental health researchers. When planning the capacity-building activities, the approach taken included a capabilities/skills matrix, needs assessments, a situational analysis, systematic reviews, qualitative interviews and stakeholder meetings, as well as the application of previous theory, evidence and experience. Each of the Emerald LMIC partners was found to have strengths in aspects of mental health system strengthening, which were complementary across the consortium. Furthermore, despite similarities across the countries, capacity-building interventions needed to be tailored to suit the specific needs of individual countries. The capacity-building outputs include three publicly and freely available short courses/workshops in mental health system strengthening for each of the target groups, 27 Masters-level modules (also open access), nine Emerald-linked PhD students, two MSc studentships, mentoring of post-doctoral/mid-level researchers, and ongoing collaboration and dialogue with the three groups. The approach taken by Emerald can provide a potential model for the development of capacity-building activities across the three target groups in LMICs.

Hybrid algorithms for fuzzy reverse supply chain network design.

PubMed

Che, Z H; Chiang, Tzu-An; Kuo, Y C; Cui, Zhihua

2014-01-01

In consideration of capacity constraints, fuzzy defect ratio, and fuzzy transport loss ratio, this paper attempted to establish an optimized decision model for production planning and distribution of a multiphase, multiproduct reverse supply chain, which addresses defects returned to original manufacturers, and in addition, develops hybrid algorithms such as Particle Swarm Optimization-Genetic Algorithm (PSO-GA), Genetic Algorithm-Simulated Annealing (GA-SA), and Particle Swarm Optimization-Simulated Annealing (PSO-SA) for solving the optimized model. During a case study of a multi-phase, multi-product reverse supply chain network, this paper explained the suitability of the optimized decision model and the applicability of the algorithms. Finally, the hybrid algorithms showed excellent solving capability when compared with original GA and PSO methods.

Hybrid Algorithms for Fuzzy Reverse Supply Chain Network Design

PubMed Central

Che, Z. H.; Chiang, Tzu-An; Kuo, Y. C.

2014-01-01

In consideration of capacity constraints, fuzzy defect ratio, and fuzzy transport loss ratio, this paper attempted to establish an optimized decision model for production planning and distribution of a multiphase, multiproduct reverse supply chain, which addresses defects returned to original manufacturers, and in addition, develops hybrid algorithms such as Particle Swarm Optimization-Genetic Algorithm (PSO-GA), Genetic Algorithm-Simulated Annealing (GA-SA), and Particle Swarm Optimization-Simulated Annealing (PSO-SA) for solving the optimized model. During a case study of a multi-phase, multi-product reverse supply chain network, this paper explained the suitability of the optimized decision model and the applicability of the algorithms. Finally, the hybrid algorithms showed excellent solving capability when compared with original GA and PSO methods. PMID:24892057

[Managerial performance in public health services: a case study in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil].

PubMed

Barbieri, Ana Rita; Hortale, Virginia Alonso

2005-01-01

This paper presents part of a doctoral dissertation that developed a theoretical model capable of identifying managerial performance in various administrative levels of a Municipal Health Secretariat. The methodology was a case study of the Municipal Health Secretariat in Campo Grande, capital of the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The theoretical model was based on recent debates emphasizing the need to modernize public administration, with an emphasis on efficacy and efficiency in the organizations as a whole. Some 31 interviews were conducted with the objective of identifying the managers' performance, through questions based on their daily practices in planning, organization, direction, and control. Managers from higher hierarchical levels obtained better results, while those in basic health units generally developed activities and complied with decisions passed down by imposition, with limited capacity to plan, organize, or control activities pertaining to their management sphere. These results stem partially from the charismatic leadership and centralizing administration of the current management in the municipal health system.

Modeling the Economic Feasibility of Large-Scale Net-Zero Water Management: A Case Study.

PubMed

Guo, Tianjiao; Englehardt, James D; Fallon, Howard J

  While municipal direct potable water reuse (DPR) has been recommended for consideration by the U.S. National Research Council, it is unclear how to size new closed-loop DPR plants, termed "net-zero water (NZW) plants", to minimize cost and energy demand assuming upgradient water distribution. Based on a recent model optimizing the economics of plant scale for generalized conditions, the authors evaluated the feasibility and optimal scale of NZW plants for treatment capacity expansion in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Local data on population distribution and topography were input to compare projected costs for NZW vs the current plan. Total cost was minimized at a scale of 49 NZW plants for the service population of 671,823. Total unit cost for NZW systems, which mineralize chemical oxygen demand to below normal detection limits, is projected at ~$10.83 / 1000 gal, approximately 13% above the current plan and less than rates reported for several significant U.S. cities.

Environmental Factors' Consideration at Industrial Transportation Organization in the «Seaport - Dry port» System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muravev, Dmitri; Rakhmangulov, Aleksandr

2016-11-01

Currently, container shipping development is directly associated with an increase of warehouse areas for containers' storage. One of the most successful types of container terminal is an intermodal terminal called a dry port. Main pollution sources during the organization of intermodal transport are considered. A system of dry port parameters, which are recommended for the evaluation of different scenarios for a seaport infrastructure development at the stage of its strategic planning, is proposed in this paper. The authors have developed a method for determining the optimal values of the main dry port parameters by simulation modeling in the programming software Any- Logic. Dependencies thatwere obtained as a result of modeling experiments prove the adequacy of main selected dry port parameters for the effective scenarios' evaluation of throughput and handling capacity at existing seaports at the stage of strategic planning and a rational dry port location, allowed ensuring the improvement of the ecological situation in a port city.

Developing science policy capacity at the state government level: Planning a science and technology policy fellowship program for Colorado and beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Druckenmiller, M. L.

2017-12-01

There is growing recognition of the potential to advance science policy capacity within state legislatures, where there is most often a shortage of professional backgrounds in the natural sciences, technology, engineering, and medicine. Developing such capacity at the state level should be considered a vital component of any comprehensive national scale strategy to strengthen science informed governance. Toward this goal, the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research at the University of Colorado Boulder is leading a strategic planning process for a Science and Technology Policy Fellowship Program within the Colorado state legislature and executive branch agencies. The intended program will place PhD-level scientists and engineers in one-year placements with decision-makers to provide an in-house resource for targeted policy-relevant research. Fellows will learn the intricacies of the state policymaking process, be exposed to opportunities for science to inform decisions, and develop a deeper understanding of key science and technology topics in Colorado, including water resources, wildfire management, and energy. The program's ultimate goals are to help foster a decision-making arena informed by evidence-based information, to develop new leaders adept at bridging science and policymaking realms, and to foster governance that champions the role of science in society. Parallel to efforts in Colorado, groups from nine other states are preparing similar plans, providing opportunities to share approaches across states and to set the stage for increased science and technology input to state legislative agendas nationwide. Importantly, highly successful and sustainable models exist; the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) has implemented a federally based fellowship program for over 43 years and the California Council for Science and Technology (CCST) has directed a fellowship program for their state's legislature since 2009. AAAS and CCST are now serving as critical and leading partners in creating similar programs across the U.S.

40 CFR 60.1380 - What must I include in my notice of construction?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... waste combustion unit. (2) The planned initial startup date of your municipal waste combustion unit. (3) The types of fuels you plan to combust in your municipal waste combustion unit. (4) The capacity of...

40 CFR 60.1380 - What must I include in my notice of construction?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... waste combustion unit. (2) The planned initial startup date of your municipal waste combustion unit. (3) The types of fuels you plan to combust in your municipal waste combustion unit. (4) The capacity of...

40 CFR 60.1380 - What must I include in my notice of construction?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... waste combustion unit. (2) The planned initial startup date of your municipal waste combustion unit. (3) The types of fuels you plan to combust in your municipal waste combustion unit. (4) The capacity of...

40 CFR 60.1380 - What must I include in my notice of construction?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... waste combustion unit. (2) The planned initial startup date of your municipal waste combustion unit. (3) The types of fuels you plan to combust in your municipal waste combustion unit. (4) The capacity of...

40 CFR 60.1380 - What must I include in my notice of construction?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... waste combustion unit. (2) The planned initial startup date of your municipal waste combustion unit. (3) The types of fuels you plan to combust in your municipal waste combustion unit. (4) The capacity of...

The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thoms, Martin

2016-04-01

The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index Martin Thoms, Melissa Parsons, Phil Morley Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, Geography and Planning, University of New England, Armidale NSW 2351, Australia. Natural hazard management policy directions in Australia - and indeed internationally - are increasingly being aligned to ideas of resilience. Resilience to natural hazards is the ability of individuals and communities to cope with disturbance and adversity and to maintain adaptive behaviour. Operationalizing the measurement and assessment of disaster resilience is often undertaken using a composite index, but this exercise is yet to be undertaken in Australia. The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index is a top-down, national scale assessment of the resilience of communities to natural hazards. Resilience is assessed based on two sets of capacities: coping and adaptive capacities. Coping capacity relates to the factors influencing the ability of a community to prepare for, absorb and recover from a natural hazard event. Adaptive capacity relates to the arrangements and processes that enable adjustment through learning, adaptation and transformation. Indicators are derived under themes of social character, economic capital, infrastructure and planning, emergency services, community capital, information and engagement and governance/leadership/policy, using existing data sets (e.g. census data) or evaluation of policy and procedure (e.g. disaster management planning). A composite index of disaster resilience is then computed for each spatial division, giving national scale coverage. The results of the Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index will be reported in a State of Disaster Resilience report, due in 2018. The index is co-designed with emergency service agencies, and will support policy development, planning, community engagement and emergency management.

A digital model for planning water management at Benton Lake National Wildlife Refuge, west-central Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nimick, David A.; McCarthy, Peter M.; Fields, Vanessa

2011-01-01

Benton Lake National Wildlife Refuge is an important area for waterfowl production and migratory stopover in west-central Montana. Eight wetland units covering about 5,600 acres are the essential features of the refuge. Water availability for the wetland units can be uncertain owing to the large natural variations in precipitation and runoff and the high cost of pumping supplemental water. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, has developed a digital model for planning water management. The model can simulate strategies for water transfers among the eight wetland units and account for variability in runoff and pumped water. This report describes this digital model, which uses a water-accounting spreadsheet to track inputs and outputs to each of the wetland units of Benton Lake National Wildlife Refuge. Inputs to the model include (1) monthly values for precipitation, pumped water, runoff, and evaporation; (2) water-level/capacity data for each wetland unit; and (3) the pan-evaporation coefficient. Outputs include monthly water volume and flooded surface area for each unit for as many as 5 consecutive years. The digital model was calibrated by comparing simulated and historical measured water volumes for specific test years.

Final_report_pub1.pdf

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Brien, Nicholas

2014-08-15

The paper describes Soitecs project to plan,install,qualify and ramp a high volume CPV module manufactruing facility in Southern California. Soitec’s CPV module factory in San Diego was planned with an annual production capacity of 280MWDC. It was scheduled to be operational by the first quarter of 2013, and was expected to create several hundred direct and indirect jobs in the San Diego region. From ground breaking to facility readiness was completed in six months. This enabled the docking of equipment in the Q3’12 time frame. The first 140 MW of capacity was ready for operation in Q4’12. Production of themore » CX-M500 modules started in Q4 2012. The line yield and factory capacity were ramped in 2013. The annual production capacity demonstration was successfully completed in Q2 2014. The modules manufactured at the plant were used to supply utility scale demand in the US and also world markets.« less

Providing Family Planning Services at Primary Care Organizations after the Exclusion of Planned Parenthood from Publicly Funded Programs in Texas: Early Qualitative Evidence.

PubMed

White, Kari; Hopkins, Kristine; Grossman, Daniel; Potter, Joseph E

2017-10-20

To explore organizations' experiences providing family planning during the first year of an expanded primary care program in Texas. Between November 2014 and February 2015, in-depth interviews were conducted with program administrators at 30 organizations: 7 women's health organizations, 13 established primary care contractors (e.g., community health centers, public health departments), and 10 new primary care contractors. Interviews addressed organizational capacities to expand family planning and integrate services with primary care. Interview transcripts were analyzed using a theme-based approach. Themes were compared across the three types of organizations. Established and new primary care contractors identified several challenges expanding family planning services, which were uncommon among women's health organizations. Clinicians often lacked training to provide intrauterine devices and contraceptive implants. Organizations often recruited existing clients into family planning services, rather than expanding their patient base, and new contractors found family planning difficult to integrate because of clients' other health needs. Primary care contractors frequently described contraceptive provision protocols that were not evidence-based. Many primary care organizations in Texas initially lacked the capacity to provide evidence-based family planning services that women's health organizations already provided. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

A financial planning model for estimating hospital debt capacity.

PubMed Central

Hopkins, D S; Heath, D; Levin, P J

1982-01-01

A computer-based financial planning model was formulated to measure the impact of a major capital improvement project on the fiscal health of Stanford University Hospital. The model had to be responsive to many variables and easy to use, so as to allow for the testing of numerous alternatives. Special efforts were made to identify the key variables that needed to be presented in the model and to include all known links between capital investment, debt, and hospital operating expenses. Growth in the number of patient days of care was singled out as a major source of uncertainty that would have profound effects on the hospital's finances. Therefore this variable was subjected to special scrutiny in terms of efforts to gauge expected demographic trends and market forces. In addition, alternative base runs of the model were made under three distinct patient-demand assumptions. Use of the model enabled planners at the Stanford University Hospital (a) to determine that a proposed modernization plan was financially feasible under a reasonable (that is, not unduly optimistic) set of assumptions and (b) to examine the major sources of risk. Other than patient demand, these sources were found to be gross revenues per patient, operating costs, and future limitations on government reimbursement programs. When the likely financial consequences of these risks were estimated, both separately and in combination, it was determined that even if two or more assumptions took a somewhat more negative turn than was expected, the hospital would be able to offset adverse consequences by a relatively minor reduction in operating costs. PMID:7111658

3D Virtual Environment Used to Support Lighting System Management in a Building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampaio, A. Z.; Ferreira, M. M.; Rosário, D. P.

The main aim of the research project, which is in progress at the UTL, is to develop a virtual interactive model as a tool to support decision-making in the planning of construction maintenance and facilities management. The virtual model gives the capacity to allow the user to transmit, visually and interactively, information related to the components of a building, defined as a function of the time variable. In addition, the analysis of solutions for repair work/substitution and inherent cost are predicted, the results being obtained interactively and visualized in the virtual environment itself. The first component of the virtual prototype concerns the management of lamps in a lighting system. It was applied in a study case. The interactive application allows the examination of the physical model, visualizing, for each element modeled in 3D and linked to a database, the corresponding technical information concerned with the use of the material, calculated for different points in time during their life. The control of a lamp stock, the constant updating of lifetime information and the planning of periodical local inspections are attended on the prototype. This is an important mean of cooperation between collaborators involved in the building management.

Electricity Capacity Expansion Modeling, Analysis, and Visualization: A Summary of High-Renewable Modeling Experiences (Chinese Translation) (in Chinese)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blair, Nate; Zhou, Ella; Getman, Dan

2015-10-01

This is the Chinese translation of NREL/TP-6A20-64831. Mathematical and computational models are widely used for the analysis and design of both physical and financial systems. Modeling the electric grid is of particular importance to China for three reasons. First, power-sector assets are expensive and long-lived, and they are critical to any country's development. China's electric load, transmission, and other energy-related infrastructure are expected to continue to grow rapidly; therefore it is crucial to understand and help plan for the future in which those assets will operate. Second, China has dramatically increased its deployment of renewable energy (RE), and is likelymore » to continue further accelerating such deployment over the coming decades. Careful planning and assessment of the various aspects (technical, economic, social, and political) of integrating a large amount of renewables on the grid is required. Third, companies need the tools to develop a strategy for their own involvement in the power market China is now developing, and to enable a possible transition to an efficient and high RE future.« less

Community wildfire protection plans: enhancing collaboration and building scoial capacity

Treesearch

Daniel R. Williams; Pamela J. Jakes; Sam Burns; Antony Cheng

2009-01-01

The Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 (HFRA) was enacted to reduce wildfire risk to communities and other at-risk lands through a collaborative process of planning, prioritizing and implementing hazardous fuel reduction projects. One of the key features of HFRA is the development of community wildfire protection plans (CWPPs). We studied the development of CWPPs...

The association among lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 levels, total antioxidant capacity and arousal in male patients with OSA.

PubMed

Bekci, Taha T; Kayrak, Mehmet; Kiyici, Aysel; Maden, Emin; Ari, Hatem; Kaya, Zeynettin; Teke, Turgut; Akilli, Hakan

2011-01-01

The mechanisms of the increased cardiac and vascular events in patients with OSA are not well understood. Arousal which is an important component of OSA was associated with increased sympathetic activation and electrocardiographic changes which prone to arrhythmias. We planned to examine the association among arousal, circulating Lp-PLA2 and total antioxidant capacity in male patients with OSA. Fifty male patients with newly diagnosed OSA were enrolled the study. A full-night polysomnography was performed and arousal index was obtained. Lp-PLA2 concentrations were measured in serum samples with the PLAC Test. Total antioxidant capacity in patients was determined with Antioxidant Assay Kit. Arousal was positively correlated with LP-PLA2 levels (r=0.43, p=0.002) and was negatively correlated with total antioxidant capacity (r= -0.29, p=0.04). Elevated LP-PLA2 levels and decreased total antioxidant activities were found in the highest arousal quartile compared with the lowest and 2nd quartiles (p=0.02, p=0.05, respectively). LP-PLA2 was an independently predictor of arousal index in regression model (β=0.357, p=0.002) This study demonstrated a moderate linear relationship between arousal and LP-PLA2 levels. Also, total antioxidant capacities were decreased in the higher arousal index. Based on the study result, the patients with higher arousal index may be prone to vascular events.

Opportunity for offshore wind to reduce future demand for coal-fired power plants in China with consequent savings in emissions of CO2.

PubMed

Lu, Xi; McElroy, Michael B; Chen, Xinyu; Kang, Chongqing

2014-12-16

Although capacity credits for wind power have been embodied in power systems in the U.S. and Europe, the current planning framework for electricity in China continues to treat wind power as a nondispatchable source with zero contribution to firm capacity. This study adopts a rigorous reliability model for the electric power system evaluating capacity credits that should be recognized for offshore wind resources supplying power demands for Jiangsu, China. Jiangsu is an economic hub located in the Yangtze River delta accounting for 10% of the total electricity consumed in China. Demand for electricity in Jiangsu is projected to increase from 331 TWh in 2009 to 800 TWh by 2030. Given a wind penetration level of 60% for the future additional Jiangsu power supply, wind resources distributed along the offshore region of five coastal provinces in China (Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Fujian) should merit a capacity credit of 12.9%, the fraction of installed wind capacity that should be recognized to displace coal-fired systems without violating the reliability standard. In the high-coal-price scenario, with 60% wind penetration, reductions in CO2 emissions relative to a business as usual reference could be as large as 200.2 million tons of CO2 or 51.8% of the potential addition, with a cost for emissions avoided of $29.0 per ton.

Evaluation Results of the CDC/ASPH Institute for HIV Prevention Leadership: A Capacity-building Educational Program for HIV Prevention Program Managers

PubMed Central

Richter, Donna L.; Dauner, Kim Nichols; Lindley, Lisa L.; Reininger, Belinda M.; Oglesby, Willie H.; Prince, Mary S.; Thompson-Robinson, Melva; Jones, Rhondette; Potts, Linda H.

2011-01-01

Objective The goal of this research was to evaluate changes over time in the capacity of participants of the CDC/ASPH Institute for HIV Prevention Leadership (Institute), a capacity-building program for HIV prevention program managers in minority-based, community-based organizations, Capacity was defined as the application of new skills and knowledge to participants’ jobs and confidence in using those new skills and knowledge to strategically manage and apply “best practices” to their HIV prevention activities. Methods This is a longitudinal study involving measuring scholar capacity at three points in time; pre-Institute, post-Institute, and 6 months’ post-Institute. Only responses from participants who completed all three surveys are included in this final analysis of the data (N = 94). Results Results indicate that participants from 3 years of the institute (2002–2004) increased their capacity in HIV prevention programming and strategic planning and management. Significant changes were seen in the frequency and self-efficacy with which participants conduct several HIV prevention programming activities. Participants also reported conducting strategic planning activities at more appropriate intervals and were significantly more confident in conducting these activities. Conclusion The Institute has positively and significantly increased the capacity of participants to conduct more effective HIV prevention programs on a national level. PMID:17159470

Modelling Contributions of the Local and Regional Groundwater Flow of Managed Aquifer Recharge Activities at Querença-Silves Aquifer System.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, Luís; Monteiro, José Paulo; Oliveira, Manuel; Mota, Rogério; Lobo-Ferreira, João Paulo; Martins de Carvalho, José; Martins de Carvalho, Tiago; Agostinho, Rui; Hugman, Rui

2015-04-01

The Querença-Silves (QS) aquifer system is one of the most important natural groundwater reservoirs in the Algarve region of southern Portugal. With a surface area of 324 km2, this karst aquifer system is the main source of supply for irrigation as well as an important source of water for the urban supply. Due to the importance given to QS aquifer system by both governmental actors and end users, ongoing research during the last two decades at the University of Algarve has attempted to provide a better understanding of the hydrogeology and hydraulic behavior, which has resulted in the development of regional scale numerical models. The most recent hydrogeological data has been acquired during the ongoing MARSOL project (MARSOL-GA-2013-619120) which aims to demonstrate that Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is a sound, safe and sustainable strategy that can be applied with great confidence in finding solutions to water scarcity in Southern Europe. Within the scope of the project large diameter well injection tests (with and without tracers) as well as geophysical surveys have been carried out in order to determine the infiltration capacity and aquifer properties. The results of which allowed the use of analytical methods to determine local scale values of hydraulic parameters (e.g. hydraulic conductivity and storage coefficient). These values will be compared with results from pre-existing numerical flow and transport models in order to obtain complementary solutions to the problem at local and regional scales. This analysis will contribute to the selection of the most appropriate methods to interpret, reproduce and model the impacts of MAR activities planned within the scope of the MARSOL project. Subsequent to the planned injection tests and, with the support of modelling efforts, the capacity of infiltration of rejected water from water treatment plants or surface storage dams in the large diameter well will be assessed.

An Integrated Model of Patient and Staff Satisfaction Using Queuing Theory

PubMed Central

Mousavi, Ali; Clarkson, P. John; Young, Terry

2015-01-01

This paper investigates the connection between patient satisfaction, waiting time, staff satisfaction, and service time. It uses a variety of models to enable improvement against experiential and operational health service goals. Patient satisfaction levels are estimated using a model based on waiting (waiting times). Staff satisfaction levels are estimated using a model based on the time spent with patients (service time). An integrated model of patient and staff satisfaction, the effective satisfaction level model, is then proposed (using queuing theory). This links patient satisfaction, waiting time, staff satisfaction, and service time, connecting two important concepts, namely, experience and efficiency in care delivery and leading to a more holistic approach in designing and managing health services. The proposed model will enable healthcare systems analysts to objectively and directly relate elements of service quality to capacity planning. Moreover, as an instrument used jointly by healthcare commissioners and providers, it affords the prospect of better resource allocation. PMID:27170899

An Integrated Model of Patient and Staff Satisfaction Using Queuing Theory.

PubMed

Komashie, Alexander; Mousavi, Ali; Clarkson, P John; Young, Terry

2015-01-01

This paper investigates the connection between patient satisfaction, waiting time, staff satisfaction, and service time. It uses a variety of models to enable improvement against experiential and operational health service goals. Patient satisfaction levels are estimated using a model based on waiting (waiting times). Staff satisfaction levels are estimated using a model based on the time spent with patients (service time). An integrated model of patient and staff satisfaction, the effective satisfaction level model, is then proposed (using queuing theory). This links patient satisfaction, waiting time, staff satisfaction, and service time, connecting two important concepts, namely, experience and efficiency in care delivery and leading to a more holistic approach in designing and managing health services. The proposed model will enable healthcare systems analysts to objectively and directly relate elements of service quality to capacity planning. Moreover, as an instrument used jointly by healthcare commissioners and providers, it affords the prospect of better resource allocation.

Strategic planning toolset for reproduction of machinebuilding engines and equipment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyko, A. A.; Kukartsev, V. V.; Lobkov, K. Y.; Stupina, A. A.

2018-05-01

This article illustrates a replica of a dynamic model of machine-building equipment. The model was designed on the basis of a ‘system dynamics method’ including the Powersim Studio toolset. The given model provides the basis and delineates the reproduction process of equipment in its natural as well as appraisal forms. The presented model was employed as a tool to explore reproduction of a wide range of engines and equipment in machine-building industry. As a result of these experiments, a variety of reproducible options were revealed which include productive capacity and distribution of equipment among technology groups. The authors’ research concludes that the replica of the dynamic model designed by us has proved to be universal. This also opens the way for further research exploring a wide range of industrial equipment reproduction.

Patient Autonomy for the Management of Chronic Conditions: A Two-Component Re-conceptualization

PubMed Central

Naik, Aanand D.; Dyer, Carmel B.; Kunik, Mark E.; McCullough, Laurence B.

2010-01-01

The clinical application of the concept of patient autonomy has centered on the ability to deliberate and make treatment decisions (decisional autonomy) to the virtual exclusion of the capacity to execute the treatment plan (executive autonomy). However, the one-component concept of autonomy is problematic in the context of multiple chronic conditions. Adherence to complex treatments commonly breaks down when patients have functional, educational, and cognitive barriers that impair their capacity to plan, sequence, and carry out tasks associated with chronic care. The purpose of this article is to call for a two-component re-conceptualization of autonomy and to argue that the clinical assessment of capacity for patients with chronic conditions should be expanded to include both autonomous decision making and autonomous execution of the agreed-upon treatment plan. We explain how the concept of autonomy should be expanded to include both decisional and executive autonomy, describe the biopsychosocial correlates of the two-component concept of autonomy, and recommend diagnostic and treatment strategies to support patients with deficits in executive autonomy. PMID:19180389

Stress analysis on passenger deck due to modification from passenger ship to vehicle-carrying ship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubaydi, A.; Sujiatanti, S. H.; Hariyanto, T. R.

2018-03-01

Stress is a basic concept in learning about material mechanism. The main focus that needs to be brought to attention in analyzing stress is strength, which is the structural capacity to carry or distribute loads. The structural capacity not only measured by comparing the maximum stress with the material’s yield strength but also with the permissible stress required by the Indonesian Classification Bureau (BKI), which certainly makes it much safer. This final project analyzes stress in passenger deck that experiences modification due to load changes, from passenger load to vehicle one, carrying: 6-wheels truck with maximum weight of 14 tons, a passenger car with maximum weight of 3.5 tons, and a motorcycle with maximum weight of 0.4 tons. The deck structure is modelled using finite element software. The boundary conditions given to the structural model are fix and simple constraint. The load that works on this deck is the deck load which comes from the vehicles on deck with three vehicles’ arrangement plans. After that, software modelling is conducted for analysis purpose. Analysis result shows a variation of maximum stress that occurs i.e. 135 N/mm2, 133 N/mm2, and 152 N/mm2. Those maximum stresses will not affect the structure of passenger deck’s because the maximum stress that occurs indicates smaller value compared to the Indonesian Classification Bureau’s permissible stress (175 N/mm2) as well as the material’s yield strength (235 N/mm2). Thus, the structural strength of passenger deck is shown to be capable of carrying the weight of vehicles in accordance with the three vehicles’ arrangement plans.

Awakening Consumer Stewardship of Health Benefits: Prevalence and Differentiation of New Health Plan Models

PubMed Central

Rosenthal, Meredith; Milstein, Arnold

2004-01-01

Context Despite widespread publicity of consumer-directed health plans, little is known about their prevalence and the extent to which their designs adequately reflect and support consumerism. Objective We examined three types of consumer-directed health plans: health reimbursement accounts (HRAs), premium-tiered, and point-of-care tiered benefit plans. We sought to measure the extent to which these plans had diffused, as well as to provide a critical look at the ways in which these plans support consumerism. Consumerism in this context refers to efforts to enable informed consumer choice and consumers' involvement in managing their health. We also wished to determine whether mainstream health plans—health maintenance organization (HMO), point of service (POS), and preferred provider organization (PPO) models—were being influenced by consumerism. Data Sources/Study Setting Our study uses national survey data collected by Mercer Human Resource Consulting from 680 national and regional commercial health benefit plans on HMO, PPO, POS, and consumer-directed products. Study Design We defined consumer-directed products as health benefit plans that provided (1) consumer incentives to select more economical health care options, including self-care and no care, and (2) information and support to inform such selections. We asked health plans that offered consumer-directed products about 2003 enrollment, basic design features, and the availability of decision support. We also asked mainstream health plans about their activities that supported consumerism (e.g., proactive outreach to inform or influence enrollee behavior, such as self-management or preventive care, reminders sent to patients with identified medical conditions.) Data Collection/Extraction Methods We analyzed survey responses for all four product lines in order to identify those plans that offer health reimbursement accounts (HRAs), premium-tiered, or point-of-care tiered models as well as efforts of mainstream health plans to engage informed consumer decision making. Principal Findings The majority of enrollees in consumer-directed health plans are in tiered models (primarily point-of-care tiered networks) rather than HRAs. Tiers are predominantly determined based on both cost and quality criteria. Enrollment in HRAs has grown substantially, in part because of the entry of mainstream managed care plans into the consumer-directed market. Health reimbursement accounts, tiered networks, and traditional managed care plans vary in their capacity to support consumers in managing their health risks and selection of provider and treatment options, with HRAs providing the most and mainstream plans the least. Conclusions While enrollment in consumer-directed health plans continues to grow steadily, it remains a tiny fraction of all employer-sponsored coverage. Decision support in these plans, a critical link to help consumers make more informed choices, is also still limited. This lack may be of concern in light of the fact that only a minority of such plans report that they monitor claims to protect against underuse. Tiered benefit models appear to be more readily accepted by the market than HRAs. If they are to succeed in optimizing consumers' utility from health benefit spending, careful attention needs to be paid to how well these models inform consumers about the consequences of their selections. PMID:15230911

Surgeon-Based 3D Printing for Microvascular Bone Flaps.

PubMed

Taylor, Erin M; Iorio, Matthew L

2017-07-01

Background  Three-dimensional (3D) printing has developed as a revolutionary technology with the capacity to design accurate physical models in preoperative planning. We present our experience in surgeon-based design of 3D models, using home 3D software and printing technology for use as an adjunct in vascularized bone transfer. Methods  Home 3D printing techniques were used in the design and execution of vascularized bone flap transfers to the upper extremity. Open source imaging software was used to convert preoperative computed tomography scans and create 3D models. These were printed in the surgeon's office as 3D models for the planned reconstruction. Vascularized bone flaps were designed intraoperatively based on the 3D printed models. Results  Three-dimensional models were created for intraoperative use in vascularized bone flaps, including (1) medial femoral trochlea (MFT) flap for scaphoid avascular necrosis and nonunion, (2) MFT flap for lunate avascular necrosis and nonunion, (3) medial femoral condyle (MFC) flap for wrist arthrodesis, and (4) free fibula osteocutaneous flap for distal radius septic nonunion. Templates based on the 3D models allowed for the precise and rapid contouring of well-vascularized bone flaps in situ, prior to ligating the donor pedicle. Conclusions  Surgeon-based 3D printing is a feasible, innovative technology that allows for the precise and rapid contouring of models that can be created in various configurations for pre- and intraoperative planning. The technology is easy to use, convenient, and highly economical as compared with traditional send-out manufacturing. Surgeon-based 3D printing is a useful adjunct in vascularized bone transfer. Level of Evidence  Level IV. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Progress of gas-insulated transformers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Togawa, Y.; Ikeda, M.; Toda, K.

The world`s first transformer was manufactured at Ganz in Hungary in 1885. Two years later in 1887 patents applications were made for about oil immersed transformers in the US. Since then, oil immersed types have predominated for medium- and large-capacity transformers, which are now giving way to gas insulated transformers in some areas. Behind such trends are plans to construct substations inside buildings or underground, because of the difficulty in acquiring land for substations in large cities where power demand is concentrated. Requirements are protection against accidents, compactness and overall economy. Total gas insulated substations combining GIS units and gasmore » insulated transformers these needs. Demand for gas insulated transformers has been increasing rapidly, particularly in Japan and Hong Kong. First, relatively small-capacity models below 20--30 MVA were put into practical use and today 275 kV, 300 MVa models are in use and 500kV, 1,500 MVA models are coming into use. Engineering is progressing very rapidly in these areas. This paper describes the design techniques and important maintenance techniques for the latest gas insulated transformers from 5,000 kVA to 300 MVA.« less

Development and piloting of a plan for integrating mental health in primary care in Sehore district, Madhya Pradesh, India

PubMed Central

Shidhaye, Rahul; Shrivastava, Sanjay; Murhar, Vaibhav; Samudre, Sandesh; Ahuja, Shalini; Ramaswamy, Rohit; Patel, Vikram

2016-01-01

Background The large treatment gap for mental disorders in India underlines the need for integration of mental health in primary care. Aims To operationalise the delivery of the World Health Organization Mental Health Gap Action Plan interventions for priority mental disorders and to design an integrated mental healthcare plan (MHCP) comprising packages of care for primary healthcare in one district. Method Mixed methods were used including theory of change workshops, qualitative research to develop the MHCP and piloting of specific packages of care in a single facility. Results The MHCP comprises three enabling packages: programme management, capacity building and community mobilisation; and four service delivery packages: awareness for mental disorders, identification, treatment and recovery. Challenges were encountered in training primary care workers to improve identification and treatment. Conclusions There are a number of challenges to integrating mental health into primary care, which can be addressed through the injection of new resources and collaborative care models. PMID:26447172

Visually based path-planning by Japanese monkeys.

PubMed

Mushiake, H; Saito, N; Sakamoto, K; Sato, Y; Tanji, J

2001-03-01

To construct an animal model of strategy formation, we designed a maze path-finding task. First, we asked monkeys to capture a goal in the maze by moving a cursor on the screen. Cursor movement was linked to movements of each wrist. When the animals learned the association between cursor movement and wrist movement, we established a start and a goal in the maze, and asked them to find a path between them. We found that the animals took the shortest pathway, rather than approaching the goal randomly. We further found that the animals adopted a strategy of selecting a fixed intermediate point in the visually presented maze to select one of the shortest pathways, suggesting a visually based path planning. To examine their capacity to use that strategy flexibly, we transformed the task by blocking pathways in the maze, providing a problem to solve. The animals then developed a strategy of solving the problem by planning a novel shortest path from the start to the goal and rerouting the path to bypass the obstacle.

The impact of poor governance on water and sediment quality: a case study in the Pitimbu River, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreira, L.; Adamowski, J.; Gaskin, S.; Saraiva, A.

2014-09-01

Applying a collaborative approach under a power-sharing institutional structure, coupled with a shift in paradigms, sustainable water resources management often requires political-institutional reform to achieve its goals. Most of Brazil's river basins are subject to rapid urbanization; however, basin stakeholders generally lack sufficient institutional capacity to address the attending water resource issues. Subject to urbanisation, the Pitimbu River basin supplies potable water to approximately 280 000 people in Brazil's Natal region. This study investigated how current institutional models influence both water management and fluvial contamination by metals. Sediment samples collected at eight sites along the river revealed elevated levels of Pb, Fe, Al, Ni and Zn, whose sources were linked to industries, vehicles, as well as agricultural and construction wastes. Aluminium enrichment of surface waters was mainly linked to inadequate sanitation infrastructure. In light of this, the region's poor institutional capacity must be addressed through institutional reform, including a new management structure open to public collective water management planning. In so doing, Brazil's water policies should acknowledge capacity building as a critical element of institutional reform.

Literature review on land carrying capacity of the coordinated development of population, resources, environment and economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Biao

2017-10-01

Land carrying capacity is an important index of evaluation on land resources. And the land carrying capacity is also very important for guiding regional plans and promoting sustainable development of regional economy. So it is significant to clarify the land carrying capacity in the sequence of events which helps the decision makers understand and grasp the knowledge of land carrying capacity more clearly and make the right judgment and decision. Based on the theory of population, resources, environment and economy, the method of reviewing literatures is used in this paper to summarize the theory of the land carrying capacity and the researching methods of the land carrying capacity, as well as the problems existing in the study of land carrying capacity.

Comparison of Lumped and Distributed Hydrologic Models Used for Planning and Water Resources Management at the Combeima River Basin, Colombia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salgado, F., II; Vélez, J.

2014-12-01

The catchment area is considered as the planning unit of natural resources where multiple factors as biotic, abiotic and human interact in a web of relationships making this unit a complex system. It is also considered by several authors as the most suitable unit for studying the water movement in nature and a tool for the understanding of natural processes. This research implements several hydrological models commonly used in water resources management and planning. It is the case of Témez, abcd, T, P, ARMA (1,1), and the lumped conceptual model TETIS. This latest model has been implemented in its distributed version for comparison purposes and it has been the basis for obtaining information, either through the reconstruction of natural flow series, filling missing data, forecasting or simulation. Hydrological models make use of lumped data of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, as well as the following parameters for each one of the models which are related to soil properties as capillary storage capacity; the hydraulic saturated conductivity of the upper and lower layers of the soil, and residence times in the flow surface, subsurface layers and base flow. The calibration and the validation process of the models were performed making adjustments to the parameters listed above, taking into account the consistency in the efficiency indexes and the adjustment between the observed and simulated flows using the flow duration curve. The Nash index gave good results for the TETIS model and acceptable values were obtained to the other models. The calibration of the distributed model was complex and its results were similar to those obtained with the aggregated model. This comparison allows planners to use the hydrological multimodel techniques to reduce the uncertainty associated with planning processes in developing countries. Moreover, taking into account the information limitations required to implement a hydrological models, this application can be a good approach to water resources management. This project can be an important tool for decision making of different actors, such as local government, environmental agencies (CORTOLIMA), risk management office. Finally, the establishment of an improved network of hydro-meteorological stations that allow acquiring a better quality information.

Evaluating investment in quality improvement capacity building: a systematic review.

PubMed

Mery, Gustavo; Dobrow, Mark J; Baker, G Ross; Im, Jennifer; Brown, Adalsteinn

2017-02-20

Leading health systems have invested in substantial quality improvement (QI) capacity building, but little is known about the aggregate effect of these investments at the health system level. We conducted a systematic review to identify key steps and elements that should be considered for system-level evaluations of investment in QI capacity building. We searched for evaluations of QI capacity building and evaluations of QI training programmes. We included the most relevant indexed databases in the field and a strategic search of the grey literature. The latter included direct electronic scanning of 85 relevant government and institutional websites internationally. Data were extracted regarding evaluation design and common assessment themes and components. 48 articles met the inclusion criteria. 46 articles described initiative-level non-economic evaluations of QI capacity building/training, while 2 studies included economic evaluations of QI capacity building/training, also at the initiative level. No system-level QI capacity building/training evaluations were found. We identified 17 evaluation components that fit within 5 overarching dimensions (characteristics of QI training; characteristics of QI activity; individual capacity; organisational capacity and impact) that should be considered in evaluations of QI capacity building. 8 key steps in return-on-investment (ROI) assessments in QI capacity building were identified: (1) planning-stakeholder perspective; (2) planning-temporal perspective; (3) identifying costs; (4) identifying benefits; (5) identifying intangible benefits that will not be included in the ROI estimation; (6) discerning attribution; (7) ROI calculations; (8) sensitivity analysis. The literature on QI capacity building evaluation is limited in the number and scope of studies. Our findings, summarised in a Framework to Guide Evaluations of QI Capacity Building , can be used to start closing this knowledge gap. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.