Effect of year-to-year variability of leaf area index on variable infiltration capacity model performance and simulation of streamflow during drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesemma, Z. K.; Wei, Y.; Peel, M. C.; Western, A. W.

2014-09-01

This study assessed the effect of using observed monthly leaf area index (LAI) on hydrologic model performance and the simulation of streamflow during drought using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model in the Goulburn-Broken catchment of Australia, which has heterogeneous vegetation, soil and climate zones. VIC was calibrated with both observed monthly LAI and long-term mean monthly LAI, which were derived from the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) observed monthly LAI dataset covering the period from 1982 to 2012. The model performance under wet and dry climates for the two different LAI inputs was assessed using three criteria, the classical Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, the logarithm transformed flow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and the percentage bias. Finally, the percentage deviation of the simulated monthly streamflow using the observed monthly LAI from simulated streamflow using long-term mean monthly LAI was computed. The VIC model predicted monthly streamflow in the selected sub-catchments with model efficiencies ranging from 61.5 to 95.9% during calibration (1982-1997) and 59 to 92.4% during validation (1998-2012). Our results suggest systematic improvements from 4 to 25% in the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency in pasture dominated catchments when the VIC model was calibrated with the observed monthly LAI instead of the long-term mean monthly LAI. There was limited systematic improvement in tree dominated catchments. The results also suggest that the model overestimation or underestimation of streamflow during wet and dry periods can be reduced to some extent by including the year-to-year variability of LAI in the model, thus reflecting the responses of vegetation to fluctuations in climate and other factors. Hence, the year-to-year variability in LAI should not be neglected; rather it should be included in model calibration as well as simulation of monthly water balance.

The effect of year-to-year variability of leaf area index on Variable Infiltration Capacity model performance and simulation of runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesemma, Z. K.; Wei, Y.; Peel, M. C.; Western, A. W.

2015-09-01

This study assessed the effect of using observed monthly leaf area index (LAI) on hydrological model performance and the simulation of runoff using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model in the Goulburn-Broken catchment of Australia, which has heterogeneous vegetation, soil and climate zones. VIC was calibrated with both observed monthly LAI and long-term mean monthly LAI, which were derived from the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) leaf area index dataset covering the period from 1982 to 2012. The model performance under wet and dry climates for the two different LAI inputs was assessed using three criteria, the classical Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, the logarithm transformed flow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and the percentage bias. Finally, the deviation of the simulated monthly runoff using the observed monthly LAI from simulated runoff using long-term mean monthly LAI was computed. The VIC model predicted monthly runoff in the selected sub-catchments with model efficiencies ranging from 61.5% to 95.9% during calibration (1982-1997) and 59% to 92.4% during validation (1998-2012). Our results suggest systematic improvements, from 4% to 25% in Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, in sparsely forested sub-catchments when the VIC model was calibrated with observed monthly LAI instead of long-term mean monthly LAI. There was limited systematic improvement in tree dominated sub-catchments. The results also suggest that the model overestimation or underestimation of runoff during wet and dry periods can be reduced to 25 mm and 35 mm respectively by including the year-to-year variability of LAI in the model, thus reflecting the responses of vegetation to fluctuations in climate and other factors. Hence, the year-to-year variability in LAI should not be neglected; rather it should be included in model calibration as well as simulation of monthly water balance.

Water Temperature changes in the Mississippi River Basin

EPA Science Inventory

In this study, we demonstrate the transfer of a physically based semi-Lagrangian water temperature model (RBM) to EPA, its linkage with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model, and its calibration to and demonstration for the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). The r...

Comparing large-scale hydrological model predictions with observed streamflow in the Pacific Northwest: effects of climate and groundwater

Treesearch

Mohammad Safeeq; Guillaume S. Mauger; Gordon E. Grant; Ivan Arismendi; Alan F. Hamlet; Se-Yeun Lee

2014-01-01

Assessing uncertainties in hydrologic models can improve accuracy in predicting future streamflow. Here, simulated streamflows using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model at coarse (1/16°) and fine (1/120°) spatial resolutions were evaluated against observed streamflows from 217 watersheds. In...

Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics

Treesearch

Seth J. Wenger; Charles H. Luce; Alan F. Hamlet; Daniel J. Isaak; Helen M. Neville

2010-01-01

Stream hydrology strongly affects the structure of aquatic communities. Changes to air temperature and precipitation driven by increased greenhouse gas concentrations are shifting timing and volume of streamflows potentially affecting these communities. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model has been employed at regional scales to describe...

Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wenger, Seth J.; Luce, Charles H.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Neville, Helen M.

2010-09-01

Stream hydrology strongly affects the structure of aquatic communities. Changes to air temperature and precipitation driven by increased greenhouse gas concentrations are shifting timing and volume of streamflows potentially affecting these communities. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model has been employed at regional scales to describe and forecast hydrologic changes but has been calibrated and applied mainly to large rivers. An important question is how well VIC runoff simulations serve to answer questions about hydrologic changes in smaller streams, which are important habitat for many fish species. To answer this question, we aggregated gridded VIC outputs within the drainage basins of 55 streamflow gages in the Pacific Northwest United States and compared modeled hydrographs and summary metrics to observations. For most streams, several ecologically relevant aspects of the hydrologic regime were accurately modeled, including center of flow timing, mean annual and summer flows and frequency of winter floods. Frequencies of high and low flows in the summer were not well predicted, however. Predictions were worse for sites with strong groundwater influence, and some sites showed errors that may result from limitations in the forcing climate data. Higher resolution (1/16th degree) modeling provided small improvements over lower resolution (1/8th degree). Despite some limitations, the VIC model appears capable of representing several ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics in streams, making it a useful tool for understanding the effects of hydrology in delimiting species distributions and predicting the potential effects of climate shifts on aquatic organisms.

Modeling water scarcity over south Asia: Incorporating crop growth and irrigation models into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troy, Tara J.; Ines, Amor V. M.; Lall, Upmanu; Robertson, Andrew W.

2013-04-01

Large-scale hydrologic models, such as the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, are used for a variety of studies, from drought monitoring to projecting the potential impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle decades in advance. The majority of these models simulates the natural hydrological cycle and neglects the effects of human activities such as irrigation, which can result in streamflow withdrawals and increased evapotranspiration. In some parts of the world, these activities do not significantly affect the hydrologic cycle, but this is not the case in south Asia where irrigated agriculture has a large water footprint. To address this gap, we incorporate a crop growth model and irrigation model into the VIC model in order to simulate the impacts of irrigated and rainfed agriculture on the hydrologic cycle over south Asia (Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra basin and peninsular India). The crop growth model responds to climate signals, including temperature and water stress, to simulate the growth of maize, wheat, rice, and millet. For the primarily rainfed maize crop, the crop growth model shows good correlation with observed All-India yields (0.7) with lower correlations for the irrigated wheat and rice crops (0.4). The difference in correlation is because irrigation provides a buffer against climate conditions, so that rainfed crop growth is more tied to climate than irrigated crop growth. The irrigation water demands induce hydrologic water stress in significant parts of the region, particularly in the Indus, with the streamflow unable to meet the irrigation demands. Although rainfall can vary significantly in south Asia, we find that water scarcity is largely chronic due to the irrigation demands rather than being intermittent due to climate variability.

An agricultural drought index to incorporate the irrigation process and reservoir operations: A case study in the Tarim River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zehua; Hao, Zhenchun; Shi, Xiaogang; Déry, Stephen J.; Li, Jieyou; Chen, Sichun; Li, Yongkun

2016-08-01

To help the decision making process and reduce climate change impacts, hydrologically-based drought indices have been used to determine drought severity in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) over the past decades. As the major components of the surface water balance, however, the irrigation process and reservoir operations have not been incorporated into drought indices in previous studies. Therefore, efforts are needed to develop a new agricultural drought index, which is based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model coupled with an irrigation scheme and a reservoir module. The new drought index was derived from the simulated soil moisture data from a retrospective VIC simulation from 1961 to 2007 over the irrigated area in the TRB. The physical processes in the coupled VIC model allow the new agricultural drought index to take into account a wide range of hydrologic processes including the irrigation process and reservoir operations. Notably, the irrigation process was found to dominate the surface water balance and drought evolution in the TRB. Furthermore, the drought conditions identified by the new agricultural drought index presented a good agreement with the historical drought events that occurred in 1993-94, 2004, and 2006-07, respectively. Moreover, the spatial distribution of coupled VIC model outputs using the new drought index provided detailed information about where and to what extent droughts occurred.

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

DOE PAGES

Bennett, Katrina Eleanor; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Jonko, Alexandra; ...

2017-11-20

The Colorado River basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model.more » Here, we combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach.« less

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, Katrina Eleanor; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Jonko, Alexandra

The Colorado River basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model.more » Here, we combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach.« less

State and parameter estimation of two land surface models using the ensemble Kalman filter and the particle filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hongjuan; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Han, Xujun; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Vereecken, Harry

2017-09-01

Land surface models (LSMs) use a large cohort of parameters and state variables to simulate the water and energy balance at the soil-atmosphere interface. Many of these model parameters cannot be measured directly in the field, and require calibration against measured fluxes of carbon dioxide, sensible and/or latent heat, and/or observations of the thermal and/or moisture state of the soil. Here, we evaluate the usefulness and applicability of four different data assimilation methods for joint parameter and state estimation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model (VIC-3L) and the Community Land Model (CLM) using a 5-month calibration (assimilation) period (March-July 2012) of areal-averaged SPADE soil moisture measurements at 5, 20, and 50 cm depths in the Rollesbroich experimental test site in the Eifel mountain range in western Germany. We used the EnKF with state augmentation or dual estimation, respectively, and the residual resampling PF with a simple, statistically deficient, or more sophisticated, MCMC-based parameter resampling method. The performance of the calibrated LSM models was investigated using SPADE water content measurements of a 5-month evaluation period (August-December 2012). As expected, all DA methods enhance the ability of the VIC and CLM models to describe spatiotemporal patterns of moisture storage within the vadose zone of the Rollesbroich site, particularly if the maximum baseflow velocity (VIC) or fractions of sand, clay, and organic matter of each layer (CLM) are estimated jointly with the model states of each soil layer. The differences between the soil moisture simulations of VIC-3L and CLM are much larger than the discrepancies among the four data assimilation methods. The EnKF with state augmentation or dual estimation yields the best performance of VIC-3L and CLM during the calibration and evaluation period, yet results are in close agreement with the PF using MCMC resampling. Overall, CLM demonstrated the best performance for the Rollesbroich site. The large systematic underestimation of water storage at 50 cm depth by VIC-3L during the first few months of the evaluation period questions, in part, the validity of its fixed water table depth at the bottom of the modeled soil domain.

Improving gridded snow water equivalent products in British Columbia, Canada: multi-source data fusion by neural network models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snauffer, Andrew M.; Hsieh, William W.; Cannon, Alex J.; Schnorbus, Markus A.

2018-03-01

Estimates of surface snow water equivalent (SWE) in mixed alpine environments with seasonal melts are particularly difficult in areas of high vegetation density, topographic relief, and snow accumulations. These three confounding factors dominate much of the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada. An artificial neural network (ANN) was created using as predictors six gridded SWE products previously evaluated for BC. Relevant spatiotemporal covariates were also included as predictors, and observations from manual snow surveys at stations located throughout BC were used as target data. Mean absolute errors (MAEs) and interannual correlations for April surveys were found using cross-validation. The ANN using the three best-performing SWE products (ANN3) had the lowest mean station MAE across the province. ANN3 outperformed each product as well as product means and multiple linear regression (MLR) models in all of BC's five physiographic regions except for the BC Plains. Subsequent comparisons with predictions generated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model found ANN3 to better estimate SWE over the VIC domain and within most regions. The superior performance of ANN3 over the individual products, product means, MLR, and VIC was found to be statistically significant across the province.

Modeling Lake Storage Dynamics to support Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vimal, S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Smith, L. C.; Smith, S.; Bowling, L. C.; Pavelsky, T.

2017-12-01

The Arctic and Boreal Zone (ABZ) of Canada and Alaska includes vast areas of permafrost, lakes, and wetlands. Permafrost thawing in this area is expected to increase due to the projected rise of temperature caused by climate change. Over the long term, this may reduce overall surface water area, but in the near-term, the opposite is being observed, with rising paludification (lake/wetland expansion). One element of NASA's ABoVE field experiment is observations of lake and wetland extent and surface elevations using NASA's AirSWOT airborne interferometric radar, accompanied by a high-resolution camera. One use of the WSE retrievals will be to constrain model estimates of lake storage dynamics. Here, we compare predictions using the lake dynamics algorithm within the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface scheme. The VIC lake algorithm includes representation of sub-grid topography, where the depth and area of seasonally-flooded areas are modeled as a function of topographic wetness index, basin area, and slope. The topography data used is from a new global digital elevation model, MERIT-DEM. We initially set up VIC at sites with varying permafrost conditions (i.e., no permafrost, discontinuous, continuous) in Saskatoon and Yellowknife, Canada, and Toolik Lake, Alaska. We constrained the uncalibrated model with the WSE at the time of the first ABoVE flight, and quantified the model's ability to predict WSE and ΔWSE during the time of the second flight. Finally, we evaluated the sensitivity of the VIC-lakes model and compared the three permafrost conditions. Our results quantify the sensitivity of surface water to permafrost state across the target sites. Furthermore, our evaluation of the lake modeling framework contributes to the modeling and mapping framework for lake and reservoir storage change evaluation globally as part of the SWOT mission, planned for launch in 2021.

Anthropogenic modifications to drainage conditions on streamflow variability in the Wabash River basin, Indiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, C.; Bowling, L. C.

2011-12-01

The Wabash River watershed is the largest watershed in Indiana and includes the longest undammed river reach east of the Mississippi River. The land use of the Wabash River basin began to significantly change from mixed woodland dominated by small lakes and wetlands to agriculture in the mid-1800s and agriculture is now the predominant land use. Over 80% of natural wetland areas were drained to facilitate better crop production through both surface and subsurface drainage applications. Quantifying the change in hydrologic response in this intensively managed landscape requires a hydrologic model that can represent wetlands, crop growth, and impervious area as well as subsurface and surface drainage enhancements, coupled with high resolution soil and topographic inputs. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model wetland algorithm has been previously modified to incorporate spatially-varying estimates of water table distribution using a topographic index approach, as well as a simple urban representation. Now, the soil water characteristics curve and a derived drained to equilibrium moisture profile are used to improve the model's estimation of the water table. In order to represent subsurface (tile) drainage, the tile drainage component of subsurface flow is calculated when the simulated water table rises above a specified drain depth. A map of the current estimated extent of subsurface tile drainage for the Wabash River based on a decision tree classifier of soil drainage class, soil slope and agricultural land use is used to activate the new tile drainage feature in the VIC model, while wetland depressional storage capacity is extracted from digital elevation and soil information. This modified VIC model is used to evaluate the performance of model physical variations in the intensively managed hydrologic regime of the Wabash River system and to understand the role of surface and subsurface storage, and land use and land cover change on hydrologic change.

Bayesian analysis of input uncertainty in hydrological modeling: 2. Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavetski, Dmitri; Kuczera, George; Franks, Stewart W.

2006-03-01

The Bayesian total error analysis (BATEA) methodology directly addresses both input and output errors in hydrological modeling, requiring the modeler to make explicit, rather than implicit, assumptions about the likely extent of data uncertainty. This study considers a BATEA assessment of two North American catchments: (1) French Broad River and (2) Potomac basins. It assesses the performance of the conceptual Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model with and without accounting for input (precipitation) uncertainty. The results show the considerable effects of precipitation errors on the predicted hydrographs (especially the prediction limits) and on the calibrated parameters. In addition, the performance of BATEA in the presence of severe model errors is analyzed. While BATEA allows a very direct treatment of input uncertainty and yields some limited insight into model errors, it requires the specification of valid error models, which are currently poorly understood and require further work. Moreover, it leads to computationally challenging highly dimensional problems. For some types of models, including the VIC implemented using robust numerical methods, the computational cost of BATEA can be reduced using Newton-type methods.

Future Climate Change Impacts on Surface Hydrology over Texas River Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.

2014-12-01

Future freshwater availability is a pressing issue in Texas due to frequent drought events and fast population growth. Even though the science community has well investigated future temperature trends, it is still unclear whether precipitation will increase or decrease in this region. Furthermore, there is a lack of understanding on how the changing climate will affect water resources across different spatial-temporal scales. This study aims to quantify the impacts of climate change on surface hydrology at the basin scale under different future emission scenarios. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, forced by an ensemble of statistically downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, is employed to predict the future hydrology. The VIC model parameters are adopted from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four different scenarios in terms of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (i.e. 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 w/m2). The analysis is carried out in three steps. First, the observed streamflows are used to evaluate the performance of VIC simulations forced by CMIP5 models during historical period. Second, VIC outputs under multiple CMIP5 model scenarios from 1950 to 2099 are analyzed to identify how soil moisture, evapotranspiration, runoff, and routed streamflows change in time and space. Third, the spatial patterns of seasonal temperature, seasonal precipitation, and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)—over four 20-year periods (1980-1999, 2010-2029, 2040-2059 and 2080-2099)—are used to pinpoint the regions that will be most affected by climate change (among the 13 Texan river basins). Furthermore, the role of groundwater in meeting the increasing needs for water supply is discussed. The results are expected to contribute to various future water resources management decisions in Texas.

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Guadalquivir River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeste Donaire, P.; García-Valdecasas-Ojeda, M.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.

2017-12-01

Climate change has lead to a decrease of precipitation and an increase of temperature in the Mediterranean Basin during the last fifty years. These changes will be more intense over the course of the 21thcentury according to global climate projections. As a consequence, water resources are expected to decrease, particularly in the Guadalquivir River Basin. This study focuses on the hydrological response of the Guadalquivir River Basin to the climate change. For this end, firstly, the implementation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model in the Basin was carried out. The VIC model was calibrated with a dataset of daily precipitation, temperature and streamflow for the period 1990-2000. Precipitation and temperature data were extracted from SPAIN02, a dataset that covers the Peninsular Spain at 0.11º of spatial resolution. Streamflow data were gathered for a representative subset of gauging stations in the basin. These data were provided by the Spanish Center for Public Work Experimentation and Study (CEDEX). Subsequently, the VIC model was validated for the period 2000-2005 in order to verify that the model outputs fit well with the observational data. After the validation of the VIC model for present climate, secondly, the effect of climate change on the Guadalquivir River Basin will be analyzed by developing several simulations of the streamflow for future climate. Precipitation and temperature data will be obtained in this case from future projections coming from high resolution (at 0.088º) simulations carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the Iberian Peninsula. These last simulations will be driven under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the periods 2021-50 and 2071-2100. The first results of this work show that the VIC model outputs are in good agreement with the observed streamflow for both the calibration and validation periods. In the context of climate change, a generalized decrease in surface and subsurface water resources is expected in the Guadalquivir River Basin. All these results will be of interest for water policy makers and practitioners in the next decades. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).

Comparing SMAP to Macro-scale and Hyper-resolution Land Surface Models over Continental U. S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Ming; Cai, Xitian; Chaney, Nathaniel; Wood, Eric

2016-04-01

SMAP sensors collect moisture information in top soil at the spatial resolution of ~40 km (radiometer) and ~1 to 3 km (radar, before its failure in July 2015). Such information is extremely valuable for understanding various terrestrial hydrologic processes and their implications on human life. At the same time, soil moisture is a joint consequence of numerous physical processes (precipitation, temperature, radiation, topography, crop/vegetation dynamics, soil properties, etc.) that happen at a wide range of scales from tens of kilometers down to tens of meters. Therefore, a full and thorough analysis/exploration of SMAP data products calls for investigations at multiple spatial scales - from regional, to catchment, and to field scales. Here we first compare the SMAP retrievals to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale land surface model simulations over the continental U. S. region at 3 km resolution. The forcing inputs to the model are merged/downscaled from a suite of best available data products including the NLDAS-2 forcing, Stage IV and Stage II precipitation, GOES Surface and Insolation Products, and fine elevation data. The near real time VIC simulation is intended to provide a source of large scale comparisons at the active sensor resolution. Beyond the VIC model scale, we perform comparisons at 30 m resolution against the recently developed HydroBloks hyper-resolution land surface model over several densely gauged USDA experimental watersheds. Comparisons are also made against in-situ point-scale observations from various SMAP Cal/Val and field campaign sites.

Increased flood risks in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Valleys, CA, under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, T.; Hidalgo-Leon, H.; Dettinger, M.; Cayan, D.

2008-12-01

Natural calamities like floods cause immense damages to human society globally, and California is no exception. A simulation analysis of flood generation in the western Sierra Nevada of California was carried out on simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model under prescribed changes in precipitation (+10 percent) and temperature (+3oC and +5oC) to evaluate likely changes in 3-day flood- frequency curves under climate change. An additional experiment was carried out where snow production was artificially turned off in VIC. All these experiments showed larger flood magnitudes from California's Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN), but the changes (for floods larger than the historical 20-year floods) were significant (at 90 percent confidence level) only in the SSN for severe warming cases. Another analysis using downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (CNRM CM3, GFDL CM2.1 and NCAR PCM1) and emission scenario A2 as input to VIC yielded a general increase in the 3-days annual maximum flows under climate change. The increases are significant (at 90 percent confidence level) in the SSN for the period 2051-2099 with all the three climate models analyzed. In the NSN the increases are significant only with the CNRM CM3 model. In general, the frequency of floods increases or stayed same under the projected future climates, and some of the projected floods were unprecedentedly large when compared to historical simulations.

A hydrological emulator for global applications - HE v1.0.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yaling; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Hongyi; Zhang, Xuesong; Leng, Guoyong

2018-03-01

While global hydrological models (GHMs) are very useful in exploring water resources and interactions between the Earth and human systems, their use often requires numerous model inputs, complex model calibration, and high computation costs. To overcome these challenges, we construct an efficient open-source and ready-to-use hydrological emulator (HE) that can mimic complex GHMs at a range of spatial scales (e.g., basin, region, globe). More specifically, we construct both a lumped and a distributed scheme of the HE based on the monthly abcd model to explore the tradeoff between computational cost and model fidelity. Model predictability and computational efficiency are evaluated in simulating global runoff from 1971 to 2010 with both the lumped and distributed schemes. The results are compared against the runoff product from the widely used Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Our evaluation indicates that the lumped and distributed schemes present comparable results regarding annual total quantity, spatial pattern, and temporal variation of the major water fluxes (e.g., total runoff, evapotranspiration) across the global 235 basins (e.g., correlation coefficient r between the annual total runoff from either of these two schemes and the VIC is > 0.96), except for several cold (e.g., Arctic, interior Tibet), dry (e.g., North Africa) and mountainous (e.g., Argentina) regions. Compared against the monthly total runoff product from the VIC (aggregated from daily runoff), the global mean Kling-Gupta efficiencies are 0.75 and 0.79 for the lumped and distributed schemes, respectively, with the distributed scheme better capturing spatial heterogeneity. Notably, the computation efficiency of the lumped scheme is 2 orders of magnitude higher than the distributed one and 7 orders more efficient than the VIC model. A case study of uncertainty analysis for the world's 16 basins with top annual streamflow is conducted using 100 000 model simulations, and it demonstrates the lumped scheme's extraordinary advantage in computational efficiency. Our results suggest that the revised lumped abcd model can serve as an efficient and reasonable HE for complex GHMs and is suitable for broad practical use, and the distributed scheme is also an efficient alternative if spatial heterogeneity is of more interest.

Impact of Climate Change on Mercury Transport along the Carson River-Lahontan Reservoir System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flickinger, A.; Carroll, R. W. H.; Warwick, J. J.; Schumer, R.

2014-12-01

Historic mining practices have left the Carson River and Lahontan Reservoir (CRLR) system contaminated with high levels of mercury (Hg). Hg levels in Lahontan Reservoir planktivorous and predatory fish exceed federal consumption limits. Inputs of Hg to the system are mainly a result of erosion during high flow and diffusion from sediment during low flow, and the relationships between streamflow and both mercury transport and bioaccumulation are non-linear. The United States Bureau of Reclamation has produced future streamflow estimates for 2000-2099 using 112 CMIP3 climate projections and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. VIC results suggest that the hydrology of the system is likely to experience higher frequencies of both high and low extreme flows, and the monthly averages of future flows are expected to be higher in the winter and lower in the summer compared to observed flows. VIC daily streamflow estimates are biased-corrected using an empirical cumulative distribution function to match observed data over the historic period of 1950-1999. Future reservoir stage and outflows are modeled assuming reservoir operations are a function of river/canal inflows, previous reservoir stage and downstream agricultural demands. VIC and reservoir flows drive the CRLR Hg transport model (RIVMOD, WASP5, and MERC4). Daily output for both total and dissolved inorganic Hg and methylmercury (MeHg) are averaged at the decadal timescale to assess changes and uncertainty in predicted spatial and temporal Hg species water column concentrations as a function of altered hydrology with respect to changing climate. Future research will use CRLR output in a bioenergetics and Hg mass balance model for Sacramento blackfish (Orthodon microlepidotus), a filter feeding cyprinid found in Lahontan Reservoir. These future simulations will help to assess possible changes in ecosystem health with respect to hydrologic conditions and associated changes to Hg transport.

Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of land surface parameters using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaria, Eleonora M.; Nijssen, Bart; Wagener, Thorsten

2007-06-01

Current land surface models use increasingly complex descriptions of the processes that they represent. Increase in complexity is accompanied by an increase in the number of model parameters, many of which cannot be measured directly at large spatial scales. A Monte Carlo framework was used to evaluate the sensitivity and identifiability of ten parameters controlling surface and subsurface runoff generation in the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). Using the Monte Carlo Analysis Toolbox (MCAT), parameter sensitivities were studied for four U.S. watersheds along a hydroclimatic gradient, based on a 20-year data set developed for the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX). Results showed that simulated streamflows are sensitive to three parameters when evaluated with different objective functions. Sensitivity of the infiltration parameter (b) and the drainage parameter (exp) were strongly related to the hydroclimatic gradient. The placement of vegetation roots played an important role in the sensitivity of model simulations to the thickness of the second soil layer (thick2). Overparameterization was found in the base flow formulation indicating that a simplified version could be implemented. Parameter sensitivity was more strongly dictated by climatic gradients than by changes in soil properties. Results showed how a complex model can be reduced to a more parsimonious form, leading to a more identifiable model with an increased chance of successful regionalization to ungauged basins. Although parameter sensitivities are strictly valid for VIC, this model is representative of a wider class of macroscale hydrological models. Consequently, the results and methodology will have applicability to other hydrological models.

Observed SWE trends and climate analysis for Northwest Pacific North America: validation for future projection of SWE using the CRCM and VIC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, K. E.; Bronaugh, D.; Rodenhuis, D.

2008-12-01

Observational databases of snow water equivalent (SWE) have been collected from Alaska, western US states and the Canadian provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and territories of NWT, and the Yukon. These databases were initially validated to remove inconsistencies and errors in the station records, dates or the geographic co-ordinates of the station. The cleaned data was then analysed for historical (1950 to 2006) trend using emerging techniques for trend detection based on (first of the month) estimates for January to June. Analysis of SWE showed spatial variability in the count of records across the six month time period, and this study illustrated differences between Canadian and US (or the north and south) collection. Two different data sets (one gridded and one station) were then used to analyse April 1st records, for which there was the greatest spatial spread of station records for analysis with climate information. Initial results show spatial variability (in both magnitude and direction of trend) for trend results, and climate correlations and principal components indicate different drivers of change in SWE across the western US, Canada and north to Alaska. These results will be used to validate future predictions of SWE that are being undertaken using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model for Western Northern America (CRCM) and British Columbia (VIC).

Impact of LULC change on the runoff, base flow and evapotranspiration dynamics in eastern Indian river basins during 1985-2005 using variable infiltration capacity approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Pulakesh; Behera, Mukunda Dev; Patidar, Nitesh; Sahoo, Bhabagrahi; Tripathi, Poonam; Behera, Priti Ranjan; Srivastava, S. K.; Roy, Partha Sarathi; Thakur, Praveen; Agrawal, S. P.; Krishnamurthy, Y. V. N.

2018-03-01

As a catchment phenomenon, land use and land cover change (LULCC) has a great role in influencing the hydrological cycle. In this study, decadal LULC maps of 1985, 1995, 2005 and predicted-2025 of the Subarnarekha, Brahmani, Baitarani, Mahanadi and Nagavali River basins of eastern India were analyzed in the framework of the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macro scale hydrologic model to estimate their relative consequences. The model simulation showed a decrease in ET with 0.0276% during 1985-1995, but a slight increase with 0.0097% during 1995-2005. Conversely, runoff and base flow showed an overall increasing trend with 0.0319 and 0.0041% respectively during 1985-1995. In response to the predicted LULC in 2025, the VIC model simulation estimated reduction of ET with 0.0851% with an increase of runoff by 0.051%. Among the vegetation parameters, leaf area index (LAI) emerged as the most sensitive one to alter the simulated water balance. LULC alterations via deforestation, urbanization, cropland expansions led to reduced canopy cover for interception and transpiration that in turn contributed to overall decrease in ET and increase in runoff and base flow. This study reiterates changes in the hydrology due to LULCC, thereby providing useful inputs for integrated water resources management in the principle of sustained ecology.

Model Estimates of Pan-Arctic Lake and Wetland Methane Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Bohn, T. J.; Glagolev, M.; Maksyutov, S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2012-12-01

Lakes and wetlands are important sources of the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4, whose emission rates are sensitive to climate. The northern high latitudes, which are especially susceptible to climate change, contain about 50% of the world's lakes and wetlands. With the predicted changes in the regional climate for this area within the next century, there is concern about a possible positive feedback resulting from greenhouse gas emissions (especially of methane) from the region's wetlands and lakes. To study the climate response to emissions from northern hemisphere lakes and wetlands, we have coupled a large-scale hydrology and carbon cycling model (University of Washington's Variable Infiltration Capacity model; VIC) with the atmospheric chemistry and transport model (CTM) of Japan's National Institute for Environmental Studies and have applied this modelling framework over the Pan-Arctic region. In particular, the VIC model simulates the land surface hydrology and carbon cycling across a dynamic lake-wetland continuum. The model includes a distributed wetland water table that accounts for microtopography and simulates variations in inundated area that are calibrated to match a passive microwave based inundation product. Per-unit-area carbon uptake and methane emissions have been calibrated using extensive in situ observations. In this paper, the atmospheric methane concentrations from a coupled run of VIC and CTM are calibrated and verified for the Pan-Arctic region with satellite observations from Aqua's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Envisat's Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) instruments. We examine relative emissions from lakes and wetlands, as well as their net greenhouse warming potential, over the last half-century across the Pan-Arctic domain. We also assess relative uncertainties in emissions from each of the sources.

Evaluating the influence of antecedent soil moisture on variability of the North American Monsoon precipitation in the coupled MM5/VIC modeling system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Chunmei; Leung, Lai R.; Gochis, David

2009-11-29

The influence of antecedent soil moisture on North American monsoon system (NAMS) precipitation variability was explored using the MM5 mesoscale model coupled with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model. Sensitivity experiments were performed with extreme wet and dry initial soil moisture conditions for both the 1984 wet monsoon year and the 1989 dry year. The MM5-VIC model reproduced the key features of NAMS in 1984 and 1989 especially over northwestern Mexico. Our modeling results indicate that the land surface has memory of the initial soil wetness prescribed at the onset of the monsoon that persists over most ofmore » the region well into the monsoon season (e.g. until August). However, in contrast to the classical thermal contrast concept, where wetter soils lead to cooler surface temperatures, less land-sea thermal contrast, weaker monsoon circulations and less precipitation, the coupled model consistently demonstrated a positive soil moisture – precipitation feedback. Specifically, anomalously wet premonsoon soil moisture always lead to enhanced monsoon precipitation, and the reverse was also true. The surface temperature changes induced by differences in surface energy flux partitioning associated with pre-monsoon soil moisture anomalies changed the surface pressure and consequently the flow field in the coupled model, which in turn changed moisture convergence and, accordingly, precipitation patterns. Both the largescale circulation change and local land-atmospheric interactions in response to premonsoon soil moisture anomalies play important roles in the coupled model’s positive soil moisture monsoon precipitation feedback. However, the former may be sensitive to the strength and location of the thermal anomalies, thus leaving open the possibility of both positive and negative soil moisture precipitation feedbacks.« less

Analysis of Water Use and Water Scarcity in Arid and Semi-arid Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samayoa, S. D.

2017-12-01

Analysis of Water Use and Water Scarcity in Arid and Semi-arid Regions Susana Samayoa , Muhammed A. G. Chowdhury, Tushar Sinha Department of Environmental Engineering, Texas A & M University - Kingsville Freshwater sustainability in arid and semi-arid regions is highly uncertain under increasing demands due to population growth and urban development as well as limited water supply. In particular, six largest cities by population among the top twenty U.S. cities are located in Texas (TX), which also experience high variability in water availability due to frequent droughts and floods. Similarly, several regions in Arizona (AZ) are rapidly growing (e.g. Phoenix and Tucson) despite receiving scanty rainfall. Thus, the goal of this study is to analyze water use and water scarcity in watersheds within TX and AZ between 1985 and 2010. The water use data from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is analyzed by Hydrological Unit Code (HUC) - 8 within TX and AZ. Total freshwater use by county during 1985 and 2010 were converted into water use by HUC-8 using geospatial analysis. Water availability will be estimated by using a large scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model will be calibrated and validated for multiple basins located in Texas and Arizona. The VIC model simulated total streamflow will be aggregated across the 1/8 degree grids that are within each HUC-8 to estimate water supply. The excess water for upstream HUC-8s (= local supply minus demands) will be routed, in addition to locally generated streamflow, to estimate water availability in downstream HUC-8s. Water Scarcity Index, defined as the ratio of total freshwater demand to supply, will be estimated during 1985 and 2010 to evaluate the effects of water availability and demands on scarcity. Finally, water scarcity and use will be analyzed by HUC-8s within TX and AZ. Such information could be useful in water resources management and planning. Keywords: Water scarcity, water use, water supply, VIC

Two-component system VicRK regulates functions associated with establishment of Streptococcus sanguinis in biofilms.

PubMed

Moraes, Julianna J; Stipp, Rafael N; Harth-Chu, Erika N; Camargo, Tarsila M; Höfling, José F; Mattos-Graner, Renata O

2014-12-01

Streptococcus sanguinis is a commensal pioneer colonizer of teeth and an opportunistic pathogen of infectious endocarditis. The establishment of S. sanguinis in host sites likely requires dynamic fitting of the cell wall in response to local stimuli. In this study, we investigated the two-component system (TCS) VicRK in S. sanguinis (VicRKSs), which regulates genes of cell wall biogenesis, biofilm formation, and virulence in opportunistic pathogens. A vicK knockout mutant obtained from strain SK36 (SKvic) showed slight reductions in aerobic growth and resistance to oxidative stress but an impaired ability to form biofilms, a phenotype restored in the complemented mutant. The biofilm-defective phenotype was associated with reduced amounts of extracellular DNA during aerobic growth, with reduced production of H2O2, a metabolic product associated with DNA release, and with inhibitory capacity of S. sanguinis competitor species. No changes in autolysis or cell surface hydrophobicity were detected in SKvic. Reverse transcription-quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR), electrophoretic mobility shift assays (EMSA), and promoter sequence analyses revealed that VicR directly regulates genes encoding murein hydrolases (SSA_0094, cwdP, and gbpB) and spxB, which encodes pyruvate oxidase for H2O2 production. Genes previously associated with spxB expression (spxR, ccpA, ackA, and tpK) were not transcriptionally affected in SKvic. RT-qPCR analyses of S. sanguinis biofilm cells further showed upregulation of VicRK targets (spxB, gbpB, and SSA_0094) and other genes for biofilm formation (gtfP and comE) compared to expression in planktonic cells. This study provides evidence that VicRKSs regulates functions crucial for S. sanguinis establishment in biofilms and identifies novel VicRK targets potentially involved in hydrolytic activities of the cell wall required for these functions. Copyright © 2014, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Two-Component System VicRK Regulates Functions Associated with Establishment of Streptococcus sanguinis in Biofilms

PubMed Central

Moraes, Julianna J.; Stipp, Rafael N.; Harth-Chu, Erika N.; Camargo, Tarsila M.; Höfling, José F.

2014-01-01

Streptococcus sanguinis is a commensal pioneer colonizer of teeth and an opportunistic pathogen of infectious endocarditis. The establishment of S. sanguinis in host sites likely requires dynamic fitting of the cell wall in response to local stimuli. In this study, we investigated the two-component system (TCS) VicRK in S. sanguinis (VicRKSs), which regulates genes of cell wall biogenesis, biofilm formation, and virulence in opportunistic pathogens. A vicK knockout mutant obtained from strain SK36 (SKvic) showed slight reductions in aerobic growth and resistance to oxidative stress but an impaired ability to form biofilms, a phenotype restored in the complemented mutant. The biofilm-defective phenotype was associated with reduced amounts of extracellular DNA during aerobic growth, with reduced production of H2O2, a metabolic product associated with DNA release, and with inhibitory capacity of S. sanguinis competitor species. No changes in autolysis or cell surface hydrophobicity were detected in SKvic. Reverse transcription-quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR), electrophoretic mobility shift assays (EMSA), and promoter sequence analyses revealed that VicR directly regulates genes encoding murein hydrolases (SSA_0094, cwdP, and gbpB) and spxB, which encodes pyruvate oxidase for H2O2 production. Genes previously associated with spxB expression (spxR, ccpA, ackA, and tpK) were not transcriptionally affected in SKvic. RT-qPCR analyses of S. sanguinis biofilm cells further showed upregulation of VicRK targets (spxB, gbpB, and SSA_0094) and other genes for biofilm formation (gtfP and comE) compared to expression in planktonic cells. This study provides evidence that VicRKSs regulates functions crucial for S. sanguinis establishment in biofilms and identifies novel VicRK targets potentially involved in hydrolytic activities of the cell wall required for these functions. PMID:25183732

Trends in soil moisture and real evapotranspiration in Douro River for the period 1980-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Valdecasas-Ojeda, Matilde; de Franciscis, Sebastiano; Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban-Parra, María

2017-04-01

This study analyzes the evolution of different hydrological variables, such as soil moisture and real evapotranspiration, for the last 30 years, in the Douro Basin, the most extensive basin in the Iberian Peninsula. The different components of the real evaporation, connected to the soil moisture content, can be important when analyzing the intensity of droughts and heat waves, and particularly relevant for the study of the climate change impacts. The real evapotranspiration and soil moisture data are provided by simulations obtained using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model. This model is a large-scale hydrologic model and allows estimates of different variables in the hydrological system of a basin. Land surface is modeled as a grid of large and uniform cells with sub-grid heterogeneity (e.g. land cover), while water influx is local, only depending from the interaction between grid cells and local atmosphere environment. Observational data of temperature and precipitation from Spain02 dataset are used as input variables for VIC model. The simulations have a spatial resolution of about 9 km, and the analysis is carried out on a seasonal time-scale. Additionally, we compare these results with those obtained from a dynamical downscaling driven by ERA-Interim data using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with the same spatial resolution. The results obtained from Spain02 data show a decrease in soil moisture at different parts of the basin during spring and summer, meanwhile soil moisture seems to be increased for autumn. No significant changes are found for real evapotranspiration. Keywords: real evapotranspiration, soil moisture, Douro Basin, trends, VIC, WRF. Acknowledgements: This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).

A hydrological emulator for global applications – HE v1.0.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Yaling; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Hongyi

While global hydrological models (GHMs) are very useful in exploring water resources and interactions between the Earth and human systems, their use often requires numerous model inputs, complex model calibration, and high computation costs. To overcome these challenges, we construct an efficient open-source and ready-to-use hydrological emulator (HE) that can mimic complex GHMs at a range of spatial scales (e.g., basin, region, globe). More specifically, we construct both a lumped and a distributed scheme of the HE based on the monthly abcd model to explore the tradeoff between computational cost and model fidelity. Model predictability and computational efficiency are evaluatedmore » in simulating global runoff from 1971 to 2010 with both the lumped and distributed schemes. The results are compared against the runoff product from the widely used Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Our evaluation indicates that the lumped and distributed schemes present comparable results regarding annual total quantity, spatial pattern, and temporal variation of the major water fluxes (e.g., total runoff, evapotranspiration) across the global 235 basins (e.g., correlation coefficient r between the annual total runoff from either of these two schemes and the VIC is > 0.96), except for several cold (e.g., Arctic, interior Tibet), dry (e.g., North Africa) and mountainous (e.g., Argentina) regions. Compared against the monthly total runoff product from the VIC (aggregated from daily runoff), the global mean Kling–Gupta efficiencies are 0.75 and 0.79 for the lumped and distributed schemes, respectively, with the distributed scheme better capturing spatial heterogeneity. Notably, the computation efficiency of the lumped scheme is 2 orders of magnitude higher than the distributed one and 7 orders more efficient than the VIC model. A case study of uncertainty analysis for the world's 16 basins with top annual streamflow is conducted using 100 000 model simulations, and it demonstrates the lumped scheme's extraordinary advantage in computational efficiency. Lastly, our results suggest that the revised lumped abcd model can serve as an efficient and reasonable HE for complex GHMs and is suitable for broad practical use, and the distributed scheme is also an efficient alternative if spatial heterogeneity is of more interest.« less

Effects of oxygen on biofilm formation and the AtlA autolysin of Streptococcus mutans.

PubMed

Ahn, Sang-Joon; Burne, Robert A

2007-09-01

The Streptococcus mutans atlA gene encodes an autolysin required for biofilm maturation and biogenesis of a normal cell surface. We found that the capacity to form biofilms by S. mutans, one of the principal causative agents of dental caries, was dramatically impaired by growth of the organism in an aerated environment and that cells exposed to oxygen displayed marked changes in surface protein profiles. Inactivation of the atlA gene alleviated repression of biofilm formation in the presence of oxygen. Also, the formation of long chains, a characteristic of AtlA-deficient strains, was less evident in cells grown with aeration. The SMu0629 gene is immediately upstream of atlA and encodes a product that contains a C-X-X-C motif, a characteristic of thiol-disulfide oxidoreductases. Inactivation of SMu0629 significantly reduced the levels of AtlA protein and led to resistance to autolysis. The SMu0629 mutant also displayed an enhanced capacity to form biofilms in the presence of oxygen compared to that of the parental strain. The expression of SMu0629 was shown to be under the control of the VicRK two-component system, which influences oxidative stress tolerance in S. mutans. Disruption of vicK also led to inhibition of processing of AtlA, and the mutant was hyperresistant to autolysis. When grown under aerobic conditions, the vicK mutant also showed significantly increased biofilm formation compared to strain UA159. This study illustrates the central role of AtlA and VicK in orchestrating growth on surfaces and envelope biogenesis in response to redox conditions.

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2011-08-15

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatialmore » scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.« less

Future Visions of the Brahmaputra - Establishing Hydrologic Baseline and Water Resources Context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, P. A.; Yang, Y. E.; Wi, S.; Brown, C. M.

2013-12-01

The Brahmaputra River Basin (China-India-Bhutan-Bangladesh) is on the verge of a transition from a largely free flowing and highly variable river to a basin of rapid investment and infrastructure development. This work demonstrates a knowledge platform for the basin that compiles available data, and develops hydrologic and water resources system models of the basin. A Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model of the Brahmaputra basin supplies hydrologic information of major tributaries to a water resources system model, which routes runoff generated via the VIC model through water infrastructure, and accounts for water withdrawals for agriculture, hydropower generation, municipal demand, return flows and others human activities. The system model also simulates agricultural production and the economic value of water in its various uses, including municipal, agricultural, and hydropower. Furthermore, the modeling framework incorporates plausible climate change scenarios based on the latest projections of changes to contributing glaciers (upstream), as well as changes to monsoon behavior (downstream). Water resources projects proposed in the Brahmaputra basin are evaluated based on their distribution of benefits and costs in the absence of well-defined water entitlements, and relative to a complex regional water-energy-food nexus. Results of this project will provide a basis for water sharing negotiation among the four countries and inform trans-national water-energy policy making.

Model Estimate of Pan-Arctic Lakes and Wetlands Methane Emissions and Their Future Climate Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Bohn, T. J.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2013-12-01

Lakes and wetlands are important sources of the greenhouse gas CH4, whose emission rate is sensitive to climate. The northern high latitudes, which are especially susceptible to climate change, contain about 50% of the world's lakes and wetlands. Given predicted changes in the climate of this region over the next century (IPCC AR5 scenarios), there is concern about a possible positive feedback resulting from methane emissions from the region's wetlands and lakes. To study the climate response of emissions from northern high latitude lakes and wetlands, we employed a large-scale hydrology and carbon cycling model (Variable Infiltration Capacity model; VIC) over the Pan-Arctic domain, which was linked to an atmospheric model (Japan's National Institute of Environmental Studies transport model; NIES TM). In particular, the VIC model simulates the land surface hydrology and carbon cycling across a dynamic lake-wetland continuum, while NIES TM models the atmospheric mixing and 3-dimension transport of methane emitted. The VIC model includes a distributed wetland water table scheme, which accounts for microtopography around the lakes and simulates variations in inundated area that are calibrated to match a passive microwave based inundation product. Per-unit-area carbon uptake and methane emissions at the land surface have been calibrated using extensive in situ observations at West Siberia. Also, the atmospheric methane concentration from this linked model run was verified for the recent 5 years with satellite observations from Aqua's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Envisat's Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) instruments. Using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios, we examine CH4 emissions from high latitude lakes and wetlands, as well as their net greenhouse warming potential, over the next 3 centuries across the Pan-Arctic domain. We also assess relative uncertainties in emissions from each of the sources.

An integrated approach for estimation of methane emissions from wetlands and lakes in high latitude regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, C.; Bowling, L. C.; Podest, E.; Bohn, T. J.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Schroeder, R.; McDonald, K. C.

2009-04-01

In recent years, there has been increasing evidence of significant alteration in the extent of lakes and wetlands in high latitude regions due in part to thawing permafrost, as well as other changes governing surface and subsurface hydrology. Methane is a 23 times more efficient greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide; changes in surface water extent, and the associated subsurface anaerobic conditions, are important controls on methane emissions in high latitude regions. Methane emissions from wetlands vary substantially in both time and space, and are influenced by plant growth, soil organic matter decomposition, methanogenesis, and methane oxidation controlled by soil temperature, water table level and net primary productivity (NPP). The understanding of spatial and temporal heterogeneity of surface saturation, thermal regime and carbon substrate in northern Eurasian wetlands from point measurements are limited. In order to better estimate the magnitude and variability of methane emissions from northern lakes and wetlands, we present an integrated assessment approach based on remote sensing image classification, land surface modeling and process-based ecosystem modeling. Wetlands classifications based on L-band JERS-1 SAR (100m) and ALOS PALSAR (~30m) are used together with topographic information to parameterize a lake and wetland algorithm in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model at 25 km resolution. The enhanced VIC algorithm allows subsurface moisture exchange between surface water and wetlands and includes a sub-grid parameterization of water table position within the wetland area using a generalized topographic index. Average methane emissions are simulated by using the Walter and Heimann methane emission model based on temporally and spatially varying soil temperature, net primary productivity and water table generated from the modified VIC model. Our five preliminary study areas include the Z. Dvina, Upper Volga, Yeloguy, Syum, and Chaya river basins. The temporally-variable inundation extent simulated by the VIC model is compared to 25 km resolution inundation products developed from combined QuikSCAT, AMSR-E and MODIS data sets covering the time period from 2002 onward. The seasonal variation in methane emissions associated with sub-grid variability in water table extent is explored between 1948 and 2006. This work was carried out at Purdue University, at the University of Washington, and at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract with the NASA.

One multi-media environmental system with linkage between meteorology/ hydrology/ air quality models and water quality model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, C.; Lynch, J. A.; Dennis, R. L.

2016-12-01

The biogeochemical processing of nitrogen and associated pollutants is driven by meteorological and hydrological processes in conjunction with pollutant loading. There are feedbacks between meteorology and hydrology that will be affected by land-use change and climate change. Changes in meteorology will affect pollutant deposition. It is important to account for those feedbacks and produce internally consistent simulations of meteorology, hydrology, and pollutant loading to drive the (watershed/water quality) biogeochemical models. In this study, the ecological response to emission reductions in streams in the Potomac watershed was evaluated. Firstly, we simulated the deposition by using the fully coupled Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CAMQ) model; secondly, we created the hydrological data by the offline linked Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the WRF model. Lastly, we investigated the water quality by one comprehensive/environment model, namely the linkage of CMAQ, WRF, VIC and the Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchment (MAGIC) model from 2002 to 2010.The simulated results (such as NO3, SO4, and SBC) fit well to the observed values. The linkage provides a generally accurate, well-tested tool for evaluating sensitivities to varying meteorology and environmental changes on acidification and other biogeochemical processes, with capability to comprehensively explore strategic policy and management design.

Two-Layer Variable Infiltration Capacity Land Surface Representation for General Circulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, L.

1994-01-01

A simple two-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-2L) land surface model suitable for incorporation in general circulation models (GCMs) is described. The model consists of a two-layer characterization of the soil within a GCM grid cell, and uses an aerodynamic representation of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the land surface. The effects of GCM spatial subgrid variability of soil moisture and a hydrologically realistic runoff mechanism are represented in the soil layers. The model was tested using long-term hydrologic and climatalogical data for Kings Creek, Kansas to estimate and validate the hydrological parameters. Surface flux data from three First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiments (FIFE) intensive field compaigns in the summer and fall of 1987 in central Kansas, and from the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study (ABRACOS) in Brazil were used to validate the mode-simulated surface energy fluxes and surface temperature.

A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liang, XU; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Wood, Eric F.; Burges, Stephen J.

1994-01-01

A generalization of the single soil layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface hydrological model previously implemented in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) general circulation model (GCM) is described. The new model is comprised of a two-layer characterization of the soil column, and uses an aerodynamic representation of the latent and sensible heat fluxes at the land surface. The infiltration algorithm for the upper layer is essentially the same as for the single layer VIC model, while the lower layer drainage formulation is of the form previously implemented in the Max-Planck-Institut GCM. The model partitions the area of interest (e.g., grid cell) into multiple land surface cover types; for each land cover type the fraction of roots in the upper and lower zone is specified. Evapotranspiration consists of three components: canopy evaporation, evaporation from bare soils, and transpiration, which is represented using a canopy and architectural resistance formulation. Once the latent heat flux has been computed, the surface energy balance is iterated to solve for the land surface temperature at each time step. The model was tested using long-term hydrologic and climatological data for Kings Creek, Kansas to estimate and validate the hydrological parameters, and surface flux data from three First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment (FIFE) intensive field campaigns in the summer-fall of 1987 to validate the surface energy fluxes.

Hydrological extremes and their agricultural impacts under a changing climate in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.

2015-12-01

With the changing climate, hydrologic extremes (such as floods, droughts, and heat waves) are becoming more frequent and intensified. Such changes in extreme events are expected to affect agricultural production and food supplies. This study focuses on the State of Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the U.S. The objectives are two-fold: First, to investigate the climatic impact on the occurrence of future hydrologic extreme events; and second, to evaluate the effects of the future extremes on agricultural production. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which is calibrated and validated over Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model is forced by the statistically downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four different scenarios in terms of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (i.e. 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 w/m2). To carry out the analysis, VIC outputs forced by the CMIP5 model scenarios over three 30-year periods (1970-1999, 2020-2049 and 2070-2099) are first evaluated to identify how the frequency and the extent of the extreme events will be altered in the ten Texas major river basins. The results suggest that a significant increase in the number of extreme events will occur starting in the first half of the 21st century in Texas. Then, the effects of the predicted hydrologic extreme events on the irrigation water demand are investigated. It is found that future changes in water demand vary by crop type and location, with an east-to-west gradient. The results are expected to contribute to future water management and planning in Texas.

On the Value of Climate Elasticity Indices to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow Projection using an ensemble of bias corrected CMIP5 dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demirel, Mehmet; Moradkhani, Hamid

2015-04-01

Changes in two climate elasticity indices, i.e. temperature and precipitation elasticity of streamflow, were investigated using an ensemble of bias corrected CMIP5 dataset as forcing to two hydrologic models. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) hydrologic models, were calibrated at 1/16 degree resolution and the simulated streamflow was routed to the basin outlet of interest. We estimated precipitation and temperature elasticity of streamflow from: (1) observed streamflow; (2) simulated streamflow by VIC and SAC-SMA models using observed climate for the current climate (1963-2003); (3) simulated streamflow using simulated climate from 10 GCM - CMIP5 dataset for the future climate (2010-2099) including two concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two downscaled climate products (BCSD and MACA). The streamflow sensitivity to long-term (e.g., 30-year) average annual changes in temperature and precipitation is estimated for three periods i.e. 2010-40, 2040-70 and 2070-99. We compared the results of the three cases to reflect on the value of precipitation and temperature indices to assess the climate change impacts on Columbia River streamflow. Moreover, these three cases for two models are used to assess the effects of different uncertainty sources (model forcing, model structure and different pathways) on the two climate elasticity indices.

Evaluation of the land surface water budget in NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE reanalyses using an off-line hydrologic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, Edwin P.; O'Donnell, Greg M.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Roads, John O.

2001-08-01

The ability of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis (NRA1) and the follow-up NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis (NRA2), to reproduce the hydrologic budgets over the Mississippi River basin is evaluated using a macroscale hydrology model. This diagnosis is aided by a relatively unconstrained global climate simulation using the NCEP global spectral model, and a more highly constrained regional climate simulation using the NCEP regional spectral model, both employing the same land surface parameterization (LSP) as the reanalyses. The hydrology model is the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, which is forced by gridded observed precipitation and temperature. It reproduces observed streamflow, and by closure is constrained to balance other terms in the surface water and energy budgets. The VIC-simulated surface fluxes therefore provide a benchmark for evaluating the predictions from the reanalyses and the climate models. The comparisons, conducted for the 10-year period 1988-1997, show the well-known overestimation of summer precipitation in the southeastern Mississippi River basin, a consistent overestimation of evapotranspiration, and an underprediction of snow in NRA1. These biases are generally lower in NRA2, though a large overprediction of snow water equivalent exists. NRA1 is subject to errors in the surface water budget due to nudging of modeled soil moisture to an assumed climatology. The nudging and precipitation bias alone do not explain the consistent overprediction of evapotranspiration throughout the basin. Another source of error is the gravitational drainage term in the NCEP LSP, which produces the majority of the model's reported runoff. This may contribute to an overprediction of persistence of surface water anomalies in much of the basin. Residual evapotranspiration inferred from an atmospheric balance of NRA1, which is more directly related to observed atmospheric variables, matches the VIC prediction much more closely than the coupled models. However, the persistence of the residual evapotranspiration is much less than is predicted by the hydrological model or the climate models.

High-Resolution Assimilation of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Observations to Represent Local-Scale Water Table Depths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stampoulis, D.; Reager, J. T., II; David, C. H.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Andreadis, K.

2017-12-01

Despite the numerous advances in hydrologic modeling and improvements in Land Surface Models, an accurate representation of the water table depth (WTD) still does not exist. Data assimilation of observations of the joint NASA and DLR mission, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) leads to statistically significant improvements in the accuracy of hydrologic models, ultimately resulting in more reliable estimates of water storage. However, the usually shallow groundwater compartment of the models presents a problem with GRACE assimilation techniques, as these satellite observations account for much deeper aquifers. To improve the accuracy of groundwater estimates and allow the representation of the WTD at fine spatial scales we implemented a novel approach that enables a large-scale data integration system to assimilate GRACE data. This was achieved by augmenting the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, which is the core component of the Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS), a high-resolution modeling framework developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation. The model has insufficient subsurface characterization and therefore, to reproduce groundwater variability not only in shallow depths but also in deep aquifers, as well as to allow GRACE assimilation, a fourth soil layer of varying depth ( 1000 meters) was added in VIC as the bottom layer. To initialize a water table in the model we used gridded global WTD data at 1 km resolution which were spatially aggregated to match the model's resolution. Simulations were then performed to test the augmented model's ability to capture seasonal and inter-annual trends of groundwater. The 4-layer version of VIC was run with and without assimilating GRACE Total Water Storage anomalies (TWSA) over the Central Valley in California. This is the first-ever assimilation of GRACE TWSA for the determination of realistic water table depths, at fine scales that are required for local water management. In addition, Open Loop and GRACE-assimilation simulations of water table depth were compared to in-situ data over the state of California, derived from observation wells operated/maintained by the U.S. Geological Service.

Assessing the Use of Remote Sensing and a Crop Growth Model to Improve Modeled Streamflow in Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richey, A. S.; Richey, J. E.; Tan, A.; Liu, M.; Adam, J. C.; Sokolov, V.

2015-12-01

Central Asia presents a perfect case study to understand the dynamic, and often conflicting, linkages between food, energy, and water in natural systems. The destruction of the Aral Sea is a well-known environmental disaster, largely driven by increased irrigation demand on the rivers that feed the endorheic sea. Continued reliance on these rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, often place available water resources at odds between hydropower demands upstream and irrigation requirements downstream. A combination of tools is required to understand these linkages and how they may change in the future as a function of climate change and population growth. In addition, the region is geopolitically complex as the former Soviet basin states develop management strategies to sustainably manage shared resources. This complexity increases the importance of relying upon publically available information sources and tools. Preliminary work has shown potential for the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to recreate the natural water balance in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins by comparing results to total terrestrial water storage changes observed from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. Modeled streamflow is well correlated to observed streamflow at upstream gauges prior to the large-scale expansion of irrigation and hydropower. However, current modeled results are unable to capture the human influence of water use on downstream flow. This study examines the utility of a crop simulation model, CropSyst, to represent irrigation demand and GRACE to improve modeled streamflow estimates in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. Specifically we determine crop water demand with CropSyst utilizing available data on irrigation schemes and cropping patterns. We determine how this demand can be met either by surface water, modeled by VIC with a reservoir operation scheme, and/or by groundwater derived from GRACE. Finally, we assess how the inclusion of CropSyst and groundwater to model and meet irrigation demand improves modeled streamflow from VIC throughout the basins. The results of this work are integrated into a decision support platform to assist the basin states in understanding water availability and the impact of management decisions on available resources.

Historical and Future Projected Hydrologic Extremes over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, K.; Hamlet, A. F.; Chiu, C. M.

2016-12-01

There is an increasing body of evidence from observed data that climate variability combined with regional climate change has had a significant impact on hydrologic cycles, including both seasonal patterns of runoff and altered hydrologic extremes (e.g. floods and extreme stormwater events). To better understand changing patterns of extreme high flows in Midwest and Great Lakes region, we analyzed long-term historical observations of peak streamflow at different gaging stations. We also conducted hydrologic model experiments using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) at 1/16 degree resolution in order to explore sensitivity of annual peak streamflow, both historically and under temperature and precipitation changes for several future periods. For future projections, the Hybrid Delta statistical downscaling approach applied to the Coupled Model Inter-comparison, Phase5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Model (GCM) scenarios was used to produce driving data for the VIC hydrologic model. Preliminary results for several test basins in the Midwest support the hypothesis that there are consistent and statistically significant changes in the mean annual flood starting before and after about 1975. Future projections using hydrologic model simulations support the hypothesis of higher peak flows due to warming and increasing precipitation projected for the 21st century. We will extend this preliminary analysis using observed data and simulations from 40 river basins in the Midwest to further test these hypotheses.

Legislation to institutionalize resources for tobacco control: the 1987 Victorian Tobacco Act.

PubMed

Borland, Ron; Winstanley, Margaret; Reading, Dorothy

2009-10-01

  To describe the process surrounding the creation of the first organization in the world to be funded from an earmarked tax on tobacco products, the Victorian Health Promotion Foundation (VicHealth), and to outline briefly its subsequent history. The genesis of VicHealth came from an interest of the Minister for Health in the Victorian State Government to address the tobacco problem, and the strategic capacity of Dr Nigel Gray from the Anti-Cancer Council of Victoria to provide a vehicle and help the government to muster support for its implementation. Success involved working with government to construct a Bill it was happy with and then working with the community to support the implementation and to counter industry attempts to derail it. The successful Bill led to the creation of VicHealth. VicHealth has played a creative and important role in promoting health not only in Victoria (Australia), but has been a stimulus for similar initiatives in other parts of the world. Enacting novel advances in public policy is made easier when there is a creative alliance between advocates outside government working closely with governments to develop a proposal that is politically achievable and then to work together to sell it. Health promotion agencies, once established, can play an important role in advancing issues like tobacco control. © 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2009 Society for the Study of Addiction.

The Role of Multimodel Combination in Improving Streamflow Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arumugam, S.; Li, W.

2008-12-01

Model errors are the inevitable part in any prediction exercise. One approach that is currently gaining attention to reduce model errors is by optimally combining multiple models to develop improved predictions. The rationale behind this approach primarily lies on the premise that optimal weights could be derived for each model so that the developed multimodel predictions will result in improved predictability. In this study, we present a new approach to combine multiple hydrological models by evaluating their predictability contingent on the predictor state. We combine two hydrological models, 'abcd' model and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, with each model's parameter being estimated by two different objective functions to develop multimodel streamflow predictions. The performance of multimodel predictions is compared with individual model predictions using correlation, root mean square error and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient. To quantify precisely under what conditions the multimodel predictions result in improved predictions, we evaluate the proposed algorithm by testing it against streamflow generated from a known model ('abcd' model or VIC model) with errors being homoscedastic or heteroscedastic. Results from the study show that streamflow simulated from individual models performed better than multimodels under almost no model error. Under increased model error, the multimodel consistently performed better than the single model prediction in terms of all performance measures. The study also evaluates the proposed algorithm for streamflow predictions in two humid river basins from NC as well as in two arid basins from Arizona. Through detailed validation in these four sites, the study shows that multimodel approach better predicts the observed streamflow in comparison to the single model predictions.

Evaluation of Drought Occurrence and Climate Change in the Pearl River Basin in South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DU, Y.; Chen, J.; Wang, K.; Shi, H.

2015-12-01

This study uses the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model to simulate the hydrological processes over the Pearl River basin in South China. The observed streamflow data in the Pearl River Basin for the period 1951-2000 are used to evaluate the model simulation results. Further, in this study, the 55 datasets of climate projection from 18 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the IPCC AR4 (SRES A2/A1B/B1) and AR5 (RCP 2.6/4.5/6.0/8.5) are used to drive the VIC model at 0.5°× 0.5°spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution. Then, the monthly Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and standardized runoff index (SRI) are generated to detect the drought occurrence. This study validates the GCMs projection through comparing the observed precipitation for the period of 2000-2013. Then, spatial variation of the frequency change of moderate drought, severe drought and extreme drought are analyzed for the 21st century. The study reveals that the frequencies of severe drought and extreme drought occurrences over the Pearl River Basin increase along with time. Specifically, for the scenario of AR5 RCP 8.5, the east and west parts of the Pearl River Basin most likely suffer from severe drought and extreme drought with an increased frequency throughout the 21st century.

Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

DOE PAGES

Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih -Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; ...

2017-11-15

The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. While previous efforts focused on the effects of reservoirs on downstream discharge, the effects of climate change on reservoir inflows in upstream areas are not well understood. We evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 178 headwater basins across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble ofmore » global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. The results projected an increase in the likelihood of flood risk by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States and increased drought risk by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western United States. Increased risk of both floods and droughts can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. In conclusion, this study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.« less

Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih -Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim

The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. While previous efforts focused on the effects of reservoirs on downstream discharge, the effects of climate change on reservoir inflows in upstream areas are not well understood. We evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 178 headwater basins across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble ofmore » global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. The results projected an increase in the likelihood of flood risk by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States and increased drought risk by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western United States. Increased risk of both floods and droughts can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. In conclusion, this study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.« less

HESS Opinions: The need for process-based evaluation of large-domain hyper-resolution models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melsen, Lieke A.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Torfs, Paul J. J. F.; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn P.

2016-03-01

A meta-analysis on 192 peer-reviewed articles reporting on applications of the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model in a distributed way reveals that the spatial resolution at which the model is applied has increased over the years, while the calibration and validation time interval has remained unchanged. We argue that the calibration and validation time interval should keep pace with the increase in spatial resolution in order to resolve the processes that are relevant at the applied spatial resolution. We identified six time concepts in hydrological models, which all impact the model results and conclusions. Process-based model evaluation is particularly relevant when models are applied at hyper-resolution, where stakeholders expect credible results both at a high spatial and temporal resolution.

HESS Opinions: The need for process-based evaluation of large-domain hyper-resolution models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melsen, L. A.; Teuling, A. J.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; Uijlenhoet, R.; Mizukami, N.; Clark, M. P.

2015-12-01

A meta-analysis on 192 peer-reviewed articles reporting applications of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model in a distributed way reveals that the spatial resolution at which the model is applied has increased over the years, while the calibration and validation time interval has remained unchanged. We argue that the calibration and validation time interval should keep pace with the increase in spatial resolution in order to resolve the processes that are relevant at the applied spatial resolution. We identified six time concepts in hydrological models, which all impact the model results and conclusions. Process-based model evaluation is particularly relevant when models are applied at hyper-resolution, where stakeholders expect credible results both at a high spatial and temporal resolution.

Coupling Meteorological, Land Surface and Water Temperature Models in the Mississippi River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, C.; Cooter, E. J.

2017-12-01

Water temperature is a significant factor influencing of the stream ecosystem and water management especially under climate change. In this study, we demonstrate a physically based semi-Lagrangian water temperature model (RBM) coupled with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model and Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). The results of this coupling compare favorably with observed water temperature data at river gages throughout the MRB. Further sensitivity analysis shows that mean water temperatures increase by 1.3°C, 1.5°C, and 1.8°C in northern, central and southern MRB zones, respectively, under a hypothetical uniform air temperature increase of 3°C. If air temperatures increase uniformly by 6°C in this scenario, then water temperatures are projected to increase by 3.3°C, 3.5°C and 4.0°C. Lastly, downscaled air temperatures from a global climate model are used to drive the coupled VIC and RBM model from 2020 to 2099. Average stream temperatures from 2020 to 2099 increase by 1°C to 8°C above 1950 to 2010 average water temperatures, with non-uniform increases along the river. In some portions of the MRB, stream temperatures could increase above survival thresholds for several native fish species, which are critical components of the stream ecosystem. The increased water temperature accelerates harmful algal blooming which results in a larger dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico.

How Might Recharge Change Under Projected Climate Change in Western US?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niraula, R.; Meixner, T.; Rodell, M.; Ajami, H.; Gochis, D. J.; Castro, C. L.

2015-12-01

Although ground water is a major source of water in the western US, little research has been done on the impacts of climate change on western groundwater storage and recharge. Here we assess the impact of projected changes in precipitation and temperature on groundwater recharge across the western US by dividing the domain into five major regions (viz. Northern Rockies and Plains, South, Southwest, Northwest and West). Hydrologic outputs from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model based on Bias-Correction and Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections from 11 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for Representative Concentration pathway 6.0 (RCP 6.0) scenarios were selected for projecting changes in recharge. Projections are made for near future (2020-2050) and far future (2070-2100) relative to the historical period (1970-2000). Averaged over the domain, half of the GCMs caused VIC to increase recharge across the region while the remaining half resulted in decreased recharge for both the near (-10.1% to 5.8%) and far (-9.7% to 17%) future. A majority (9 out of 11 GCMs) of the VIC simulations projected increased recharge in the Northern Rockies and Plains for both the near and far future. A majority of the simulations agreed on reduced recharge in other regions for the near future. For the far future, a majority of the simulations agreed on decreased recharge in the South (9 out of 11 GCMs) and Southwest (7 out of 11 GCMs) regions. The change is projected to be largest for the South region which could see recharged reduced by as much as 50%. Changes in recharge in the Northwest region are predicted to be small (within 10% of historical recharge). Despite the large variability in projected recharge across the GCMs, recharge projections from this study will help water managers with long term water management planning.

Impact of Initial Condition Errors and Precipitation Forecast Bias on Drought Simulation and Prediction in the Huaihe River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, H.; Luo, L.; Wu, Z.

2016-12-01

Drought, regarded as one of the major disasters all over the world, is not always easy to detect and forecast. Hydrological models coupled with Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) has become a relatively effective method for drought monitoring and prediction. The accuracy of hydrological initial condition (IC) and the skill of NWP precipitation forecast can both heavily affect the quality and skill of hydrological forecast. In the study, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and Global Environmental Multi-scale (GEM) model were used to investigate the roles of IC and NWP forecast accuracy on hydrological predictions. A rev-ESP type experiment was conducted for a number of drought events in the Huaihe river basin. The experiment suggests that errors in ICs indeed affect the drought simulations by VIC and thus the drought monitoring. Although errors introduced in the ICs diminish gradually, the influence sometimes can last beyond 12 months. Using the soil moisture anomaly percentage index (SMAPI) as the metric to measure drought severity for the study region, we are able to quantify that time scale of influence from IC ranges. The analysis shows that the time scale is directly related to the magnitude of the introduced IC range and the average precipitation intensity. In order to explore how systematic bias correction in GEM forecasted precipitation can affect precipitation and hydrological forecast, we then both used station and gridded observations to eliminate biases of forecasted data. Meanwhile, different precipitation inputs with corrected data during drought process were conducted by VIC to investigate the changes of drought simulations, thus demonstrated short-term rolling drought prediction using a better performed corrected precipitation forecast. There is a word limit on the length of the abstract. So make sure your abstract fits the requirement. If this version is too long, try to shorten it as much as you can.

Did Climate Change Cause the 2012-2014 California Drought?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Y.; Clark, E.; Xiao, M.; Nijssen, B.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2014-12-01

California has experienced severe drought over the last three years, with especially deficient winter precipitation and mountain snowpack in 2013-2014. While the severity of California's water crisis this year is not in question, the causes of the drought are less clear, and there has been debate as to whether human-induced climate change is at least in part a cause of anomalously low winter precipitation (P) and snow water equivalent (SWE) this year, or whether the conditions are simply the result of natural variability that has been manifested in previous severe droughts in California. To provide more scientific insight to this question, we reconstructed, using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, SWE and runoff from 1920 to 2014 at a spatial resolution of 1/16 degree over the Sierra Nevada range of California. We forced the VIC model with a temporally consistent set of index precipitation and temperature stations that are also used in the University of Washington's Drought Monitoring System for the West Coast Region (http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor_cali/index.shtml). We carried out trend analysis and examined cumulative probability for accumulated winter precipitation, SWE on Apr 1, annual, spring and winter runoff, average winter temperature (T) and SWE/P fraction. We also did correlation analysis between SWE and P as well as SWE and T. In addition, we used detrended temperature data to force the VIC model in order to analyze the role of climate change in SWE and runoff. Our results show that while the decreasing trend in SWE and earlier runoff peak in the year are related to long-term warming climate, there is no significant trend in winter P and there are lots of variability in the record of all variables. While this year's anomalously warm weather might have exacerbated the ongoing 3-year drought (and winter 2013-14 in particular), we conclude that natural variability is the main cause.

Sensitivity of Hydrologic Extremes to Spatial Resolution of Meteorological Forcings: A Case Study of the Conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kao, S. C.; Naz, B. S.; Gangrade, S.; Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.

2016-12-01

The magnitude and frequency of hydroclimate extremes are projected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) with significant implications for future water resource planning and flood risk management. Nevertheless, apart from the change of natural environment, the choice of model spatial resolution could also artificially influence the features of simulated extremes. To better understand how the spatial resolution of meteorological forcings may affect hydroclimate projections, we test the runoff sensitivity using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model that was calibrated for each CONUS 8-digit hydrologic unit (HUC8) at 1/24° ( 4km) grid resolution. The 1980-2012 gridded Daymet and PRISM meteorological observations are used to conduct the 1/24° resolution control simulation. Comparative simulations are achieved by smoothing the 1/24° forcing into 1/12° and 1/8° resolutions which are then used to drive the VIC model for the CONUS. In addition, we also test how the simulated high and low runoff conditions would react to change in precipitation (±10%) and temperature (+1°C). The results are further analyzed for various types of hydroclimate extremes across different watersheds in the CONUS. This work helps us understand the sensitivity of simulated runoff to different spatial resolutions of climate forcings and also its sensitivity to different watershed sizes and characteristics of extreme events in the future climate conditions.

Potential impacts of agricultural drought on crop yield variability under a changing climate in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Leng, G.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.; Zhao, G.; Gao, H.

2017-12-01

Texas has the largest farm area in the U.S, and its revenue from crop production ranks third overall. With the changing climate, hydrological extremes such as droughts are becoming more frequent and intensified, causing significant yield reduction in rainfed agricultural systems. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential impacts of agricultural drought on crop yields (corn, sorghum, and wheat) under a changing climate in Texas. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which is calibrated and validated over 10 major Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed in this study.The model is forced by a set of statistically downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) that represent different greenhouse gas concentration (4.5 and 8.5 w/m2 are selected in this study). To carry out the analysis, VIC simulations from 1950 to 2099 are first analyzed to investigate how the frequency and severity of agricultural droughts will be altered in Texas (under a changing climate). Second, future crop yields are projected using a statistical crop model. Third, the effects of agricultural drought on crop yields are quantitatively analyzed. The results are expected to contribute to future water resources planning, with a goal of mitigating the negative impacts of future droughts on agricultural production in Texas.

Large-scale Agroecosytem's Resiliency to Extreme Hydrometeorological and Climate Extreme Events in the Missouri River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Arriola, F.; Smith, K.; Corzo, G.; Chacon, J.; Carrillo-Cruz, C.

2015-12-01

A major challenge for water, energy and food security relies on the capability of agroecosyststems and ecosystems to adapt to a changing climate and land use changes. The interdependency of these forcings, understood through our ability to monitor and model processes across scales, indicate the "depth" of their impact on agroecosystems and ecosystems, and consequently our ability to predict the system's ability to return to a "normal" state. We are particularly interested in explore two questions: (1) how hydrometeorological and climate extreme events (HCEs) affect sub-seasonal to interannual changes in evapotranspiration and soil moisture? And (2) how agroecosystems recover from the effect of such events. To address those questions we use the land surface hydrologic Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer-Leaf Area Index (MODIS-LAI) over two time spans (1950-2013 using a seasonal fixed LAI cycle) and 2001-2013 (an 8-day MODIS-LAI). VIC is forced by daily/16th degree resolution precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, and wind speed. In this large-scale experiment, resiliency is defined by the capacity of a particular agroecosystem, represented by a grid cell's ET, SM, and LAI to return to a historical average. This broad, yet simplistic definition will contribute to identify the possible components and their scales involved in agroecosystems and ecosystems capacity to adapt to the incidence of HCEs and technologies used to intensify agriculture and diversify their use for food and energy production. Preliminary results show that dynamical changes in land use, tracked by MODIS data, require larger time spans to address properly the influence of technologic improvements in crop production as well as the competition for land for biofuel vs. food production. On the other hand, fixed seasonal changes in land use allow us just to identify hydrologic changes mainly due to climate variability.

Model based Inverse Methods for Sizing Cracks of Varying Shape and Location in Bolt hole Eddy Current (BHEC) Inspections (Postprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-10

using bolt hole eddy current (BHEC) techniques. Data was acquired for a wide range of crack sizes and shapes, including mid- bore , corner and through...to select the most appropriate VIC-3D surrogate model for subsequent crack sizing inversion step. Inversion results for select mid- bore , through and...the flaw. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Bolt hole eddy current (BHEC); mid- bore , corner and through-thickness crack types; VIC-3D generated surrogate models

Regulation of Bacteriocin Production and Cell Death by the VicRK Signaling System in Streptococcus mutans

PubMed Central

Senadheera, D. B.; Cordova, M.; Ayala, E. A.; Chávez de Paz, L. E.; Singh, K.; Downey, J. S.; Svensäter, G.; Goodman, S. D.

2012-01-01

The VicRK two-component signaling system modulates biofilm formation, genetic competence, and stress tolerance in Streptococcus mutans. We show here that the VicRK modulates bacteriocin production and cell viability, in part by direct modulation of competence-stimulating peptide (CSP) production in S. mutans. Global transcriptome and real-time transcriptional analysis of the VicK-deficient mutant (SmuvicK) revealed significant modulation of several bacteriocin-related loci, including nlmAB, nlmC, and nlmD (P < 0.001), suggesting a role for the VicRK in producing mutacins IV, V, and VI. Bacteriocin overlay assays revealed an altered ability of the vic mutants to kill related species. Since a well-conserved VicR binding site (TGTWAH-N5-TGTWAH) was identified within the comC coding region, we confirmed VicR binding to this sequence using DNA footprinting. Overexpression of the vic operon caused growth-phase-dependent repression of comC, comDE, and comX. In the vic mutants, transcription of nlmC/cipB encoding mutacin V, previously linked to CSP-dependent cell lysis, as well as expression of its putative immunity factor encoded by immB, were significantly affected relative to the wild type (P < 0.05). In contrast to previous reports that proposed a hyper-resistant phenotype for the VicK mutant in cell viability, the release of extracellular genomic DNA was significantly enhanced in SmuvicK (P < 0.05), likely as a result of increased autolysis compared with the parent. The drastic influence of VicRK on cell viability was also demonstrated using vic mutant biofilms. Taken together, we have identified a novel regulatory link between the VicRK and ComDE systems to modulate bacteriocin production and cell viability of S. mutans. PMID:22228735

Hydrologic climate change impacts in the Columbia River Basin and their sensitivity to methodological choices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chegwidden, O.; Nijssen, B.; Mao, Y.; Rupp, D. E.

2016-12-01

The Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the United States' Pacific Northwest (PNW) is highly regulated for hydropower generation, flood control, fish survival, irrigation and navigation. Historically it has had a hydrologic regime characterized by winter precipitation in the form of snow, followed by a spring peak in streamflow from snowmelt. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to significantly alter this regime, causing changes to streamflow timing and volume. While numerous hydrologic studies have been conducted across the CRB, the impact of methodological choices in hydrologic modeling has not been as heavily investigated. To better understand their impact on the spread in modeled projections of hydrological change, we ran simulations involving permutations of a variety of methodological choices. We used outputs from ten global climate models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report. After downscaling the GCM output using three different techniques we forced the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), both implemented at 1/16th degree ( 5 km) for the period 1950-2099. For the VIC model, we used three independently-derived parameter sets. We will show results from the range of simulations, both in the form of basin-wide spatial analyses of hydrologic variables and through analyses of changes in streamflow at selected sites throughout the CRB. We will then discuss the differences in sensitivities to climate change seen among the projections, paying particular attention to differences in projections from the hydrologic models and different parameter sets.

Active tissue stiffness modulation controls valve interstitial cell phenotype and osteogenic potential in 3D culture.

PubMed

Duan, Bin; Yin, Ziying; Hockaday Kang, Laura; Magin, Richard L; Butcher, Jonathan T

2016-05-01

Calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) progression is a highly dynamic process whereby normally fibroblastic valve interstitial cells (VIC) undergo osteogenic differentiation, maladaptive extracellular matrix (ECM) composition, structural remodeling, and tissue matrix stiffening. However, how VIC with different phenotypes dynamically affect matrix properties and how the altered matrix further affects VIC phenotypes in response to physiological and pathological conditions have not yet been determined. In this study, we develop 3D hydrogels with tunable matrix stiffness to investigate the dynamic interplay between VIC phenotypes and matrix biomechanics. We find that VIC populated within hydrogels with valve leaflet like stiffness differentiate towards myofibroblasts in osteogenic media, but surprisingly undergo osteogenic differentiation when cultured within lower initial stiffness hydrogels. VIC differentiation progressively stiffens the hydrogel microenvironment, which further upregulates both early and late osteogenic markers. These findings identify a dynamic positive feedback loop that governs acceleration of VIC calcification. Temporal stiffening of pathologically lower stiffness matrix back to normal level, or blocking the mechanosensitive RhoA/ROCK signaling pathway, delays the osteogenic differentiation process. Therefore, direct ECM biomechanical modulation can affect VIC phenotypes towards and against osteogenic differentiation in 3D culture. These findings highlight the importance of the homeostatic maintenance of matrix stiffness to restrict pathological VIC differentiation. We implement 3D hydrogels with tunable matrix stiffness to investigate the dynamic interaction between valve interstitial cells (VIC, major cell population in heart valve) and matrix biomechanics. This work focuses on how human VIC responses to changing 3D culture environments. Our findings identify a dynamic positive feedback loop that governs acceleration of VIC calcification, which is the hallmark of calcific aortic valve disease. Temporal stiffening of pathologically lower stiffness matrix back to normal level, or blocking the mechanosensitive signaling pathway, delays VIC osteogenic differentiation. Our findings provide an improved understanding of VIC-matrix interactions to aid in interpretation of VIC calcification studies in vitro and suggest that ECM disruption resulting in local tissue stiffness decreases may promote calcific aortic valve disease. Copyright © 2016 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards an integrated model of floodplain hydrology representing feedbacks and anthropogenic effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreadis, K.; Schumann, G.; Voisin, N.; O'Loughlin, F.; Tesfa, T. K.; Bates, P.

2017-12-01

The exchange of water between hillslopes, river channels and floodplain can be quite complex and the difficulty in capturing the mechanisms behind it is exacerbated by the impact of human activities such as irrigation and reservoir operations. Although there has been a vast body of work on modeling hydrological processes, most of the resulting models have been limited with regards to aspects of the coupled human-natural system. For example, hydrologic models that represent processes such as evapotranspiration, infiltration, interception and groundwater dynamics often neglect anthropogenic effects or do not adequately represent the inherently two-dimensional floodplain flow. We present an integrated modeling framework that is comprised of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model, the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model, and the Water resources Management (WM) model. The VIC model solves the energy and water balance over a gridded domain and simulates a number of hydrologic features such as snow, frozen soils, lakes and wetlands, while also representing irrigation demand from cropland areas. LISFLOOD-FP solves an approximation of the Saint-Venant equations to efficiently simulate flow in river channels and the floodplain. The implementation of WM accommodates a variety of operating rules in reservoirs and withdrawals due to consumptive demands, allowing the successful simulation of regulated flow. The models are coupled so as to allow feedbacks between their corresponding processes, therefore providing the ability to test different hypotheses about the floodplain hydrology of large-scale basins. We test this integrated framework over the Zambezi River basin by simulating its hydrology from 2000-2010, and evaluate the results against remotely sensed observations. Finally, we examine the sensitivity of streamflow and water inundation to changes in reservoir operations, precipitation and temperature.

Using Na3PO4 to Enhance In vitro Animal Models of Aortic Valve Calcification.

PubMed

Lerman, Daniel Alejandro; Prasad, Sai; Alotti, Nasri

2016-01-07

The pathogenesis of calcific aortic valvular disease (CAVD) involves an active inflammatory process of valvular interstitial cells (VICs) characterized by the activation of specific osteogenic signaling pathways and apoptosis. This process can be studied by analyzing certain molecular markers and gene expression pathways of spontaneous calcification. The purpose of our study is to investigate the role of sodium phosphate (Na3PO4) as a calcification promoter, with the aim of improving in vitro animal models for testing potential calcification inhibitors. VICs were extracted from 6 healthy 6-month-old fresh porcine hearts by serial collagenase digestion. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) was used to quantify trans-differentiation of genes of interest during spontaneous calcification of VICs. Spontaneous calcification of VICs was increased by adding Na 3 PO 4 (3 mM, pH 7.4). The degree of calcification was estimated by Alizarin Red staining for calcium deposition, and Sirius Red staining for collagen. Colorimetric techniques were used to determine calcium and collagen deposition quantitatively. Additionally, the enzymatic activity of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) was measured by a kinetic assay. For statistical analysis we used SPSS and Microsoft Office Excel 2013. Porcine VICs calcify spontaneously with demonstrable calcium and collagen deposition. In this study we observed an increase of calcium and collagen deposition from day 0 to day 14 (calcium: 376%; P<0.001, collagen: 3553%; P<0.001). qPCR analysis of mRNA by day 14 showed the following results: α-actin, a marker of myoblast phenotype, was increased to 1.6-fold; P<0.001. Runx2, an osteoblast marker, rose to 1.3 fold; P<0.05, TGF-β, a promoter of osteogenesis, increased to 3.2-fold; P<0.001, and RhoA, a regulator of nodular formation in myoblasts, increased to 4.5-fold; P<0.001, compared to their levels at day 0. RANKL mRNA and calponin did not change significantly. Treatment of porcine VICs with Na3PO4 (3 mM, pH 7.4) led to a marked increase in calcium deposition by day 14 (522%; P<0.001), and a significant increase in ALP activity by day 7 (228%; P<0.05). There were no significant changes in ALP activity between the groups by day 14. This study has demonstrated the upregulation of some specific molecules during spontaneous calcification of aortic VICs with an active increase of calcium, collagen and ALP activity. In this in vitro model it was possible to increase spontaneous VICs calcification with Na 3 PO 4 (3 mM, pH 7.4) to a level in which inhibitors of calcification could be tested to identify a novel potential therapeutic strategy against calcific aortic stenosis.

Understanding The Individual Impacts Of Human Interventions And Climate Change On Hydrologic Variables In India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, T.; Chhabra, S., Jr.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

2015-12-01

We have quantified the historical climate change and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change impacts on the hydrologic variables of Indian subcontinent by using Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) mesoscale model at 0.5° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution. The results indicate that the climate change in India has predominating effects on the basic water balance components such as water yield, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. This analysis is with the assumption of naturalised hydrologic cycle, i.e., the impacts of human interventions like construction of controlled (primarily dams, diversions and reservoirs) and water withdrawals structures are not taken into account. The assumption is unrealistic since there are numerous anthropogenic disturbances which result in large changes on vegetation composition and distribution patterns. These activities can directly or indirectly influence the dynamics of water cycle; subsequently affecting the hydrologic processes like plant transpiration, infiltration, evaporation, runoff and sublimation. Here, we have quantified the human interventions by using the reservoir and irrigation module of VIC model which incorporates the irrigation schemes, reservoir characteristics and water withdrawals. The impact of human interventions on hydrologic variables in many grids are found more predominant than climate change and might be detrimental to water resources at regional level. This spatial pattern of impacts will facilitate water manager and planners to design and station hydrologic structures for a sustainable water resources management.

A seasonal hydrologic ensemble prediction system for water resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, L.; Wood, E. F.

2006-12-01

A seasonal hydrologic ensemble prediction system, developed for the Ohio River basin, has been improved and expanded to several other regions including the Eastern U.S., Africa and East Asia. The prediction system adopts the traditional Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach, utilizing the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model as the central tool for producing ensemble prediction of soil moisture, snow and streamflow with lead times up to 6-month. VIC is forced by observed meteorology to estimate the hydrological initial condition prior to the forecast, but during the forecast period the atmospheric forcing comes from statistically downscaled, seasonal forecast from dynamic climate models. The seasonal hydrologic ensemble prediction system is currently producing realtime seasonal hydrologic forecast for these regions on a monthly basis. Using hindcasts from a 19-year period (1981-1999), during which seasonal hindcasts from NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and European Union DEMETER project are available, we evaluate the performance of the forecast system over our forecast regions. The evaluation shows that the prediction system using the current forecast approach is able to produce reliable and accurate precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow predictions. The overall skill is much higher then the traditional ESP. In particular, forecasts based on multiple climate model forecast are more skillful than single model-based forecast. This emphasizes the significant need for producing seasonal climate forecast with multiple climate models for hydrologic applications. Forecast from this system is expected to provide very valuable information about future hydrologic states and associated risks for end users, including water resource management and financial sectors.

Decomposition of Sources of Errors in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in a Rainfall-Runoff Dominated Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinha, T.; Arumugam, S.

2012-12-01

Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate forecasts can be effectively utilized in updating water management plans and optimize generation of hydroelectric power. Streamflow in the rainfall-runoff dominated basins critically depend on forecasted precipitation in contrast to snow dominated basins, where initial hydrological conditions (IHCs) are more important. Since precipitation forecasts from Atmosphere-Ocean-General Circulation Models are available at coarse scale (~2.8° by 2.8°), spatial and temporal downscaling of such forecasts are required to implement land surface models, which typically runs on finer spatial and temporal scales. Consequently, multiple sources are introduced at various stages in predicting seasonal streamflow. Therefore, in this study, we addresses the following science questions: 1) How do we attribute the errors in monthly streamflow forecasts to various sources - (i) model errors, (ii) spatio-temporal downscaling, (iii) imprecise initial conditions, iv) no forecasts, and (iv) imprecise forecasts? and 2) How does monthly streamflow forecast errors propagate with different lead time over various seasons? In this study, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is calibrated over Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee, FL in the southeastern US and implemented with observed 1/8° daily forcings to estimate reference streamflow during 1981 to 2010. The VIC model is then forced with different schemes under updated IHCs prior to forecasting period to estimate relative mean square errors due to: a) temporally disaggregation, b) spatial downscaling, c) Reverse Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (imprecise IHCs), d) ESP (no forecasts), and e) ECHAM4.5 precipitation forecasts. Finally, error propagation under different schemes are analyzed with different lead time over different seasons.

Integration of Satellite, Global Reanalysis Data and Macroscale Hydrological Model for Drought Assessment in Sub-Tropical Region of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, V.; Srivastava, P. K.

2018-04-01

Change in soil moisture regime is highly relevant for agricultural drought, which can be best analyzed in terms of Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI). A macroscale hydrological model Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) was used to simulate the hydro-climatological fluxes including evapotranspiration, runoff, and soil moisture storage to reconstruct the severity and duration of agricultural drought over semi-arid region of India. The simulations in VIC were performed at 0.25° spatial resolution by using a set of meteorological forcing data, soil parameters and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) and vegetation parameters. For calibration and validation, soil parameters obtained from National Bureau of Soil Survey and Land Use Planning (NBSSLUP) and ESA's Climate Change Initiative soil moisture (CCI-SM) data respectively. The analysis of results demonstrates that most of the study regions (> 80 %) especially for central northern part are affected by drought condition. The year 2001, 2002, 2007, 2008 and 2009 was highly affected by agricultural drought. Due to high average and maximum temperature, we observed higher soil evaporation that reduces the surface soil moisture significantly as well as the high topographic variations; coarse soil texture and moderate to high wind speed enhanced the drying upper soil moisture layer that incorporate higher negative SMDI over the study area. These findings can also facilitate the archetype in terms of daily time step data, lengths of the simulation period, various hydro-climatological outputs and use of reasonable hydrological model.

Comparing potential recharge estimates from three Land Surface Models across the Western US

PubMed Central

NIRAULA, REWATI; MEIXNER, THOMAS; AJAMI, HOORI; RODELL, MATTHEW; GOCHIS, DAVID; CASTRO, CHRISTOPHER L.

2018-01-01

Groundwater is a major source of water in the western US. However, there are limited recharge estimates available in this region due to the complexity of recharge processes and the challenge of direct observations. Land surface Models (LSMs) could be a valuable tool for estimating current recharge and projecting changes due to future climate change. In this study, simulations of three LSMs (Noah, Mosaic and VIC) obtained from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) are used to estimate potential recharge in the western US. Modeled recharge was compared with published recharge estimates for several aquifers in the region. Annual recharge to precipitation ratios across the study basins varied from 0.01–15% for Mosaic, 3.2–42% for Noah, and 6.7–31.8% for VIC simulations. Mosaic consistently underestimates recharge across all basins. Noah captures recharge reasonably well in wetter basins, but overestimates it in drier basins. VIC slightly overestimates recharge in drier basins and slightly underestimates it for wetter basins. While the average annual recharge values vary among the models, the models were consistent in identifying high and low recharge areas in the region. Models agree in seasonality of recharge occurring dominantly during the spring across the region. Overall, our results highlight that LSMs have the potential to capture the spatial and temporal patterns as well as seasonality of recharge at large scales. Therefore, LSMs (specifically VIC and Noah) can be used as a tool for estimating future recharge rates in data limited regions. PMID:29618845

Quantifying Direct and Indirect Impact of Future Climate on Sub-Arctic Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endalamaw, A. M.; Bolton, W. R.; Young-Robertson, J. M.; Morton, D.; Hinzman, L. D.

2016-12-01

Projected future climate will have a significant impact on the hydrology of interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds, directly though the changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, and indirectly through the cryospheric and ecological impacts. Although the latter is the dominant factor controlling the hydrological processes in the interior Alaska sub-arctic, it is often overlooked in many climate change impact studies. In this study, we aim to quantify and compare the direct and indirect impact of the projected future climate on the hydrology of the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) meso-scale hydrological model will be implemented to simulate the hydrological processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture dynamics in the Chena River Basin (area = 5400km2), located in the interior Alaska sub-arctic region. Permafrost and vegetation distribution will be derived from the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (GIPL) model and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Model (LPJ) model, respectively. All models will be calibrated and validated using historical data. The Scenario Network for Alaskan and Arctic Planning (SNAP) 5-model average projected climate data products will be used as forcing data for each of these models. The direct impact of climate change on hydrology is estimated using surface parameterization derived from the present day permafrost and vegetation distribution, and future climate forcing from SNAP projected climate data products. Along with the projected future climate, outputs of GIPL and LPJ will be incorporated into the VIC model to estimate the indirect and overall impact of future climate on the hydrology processes in the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. Finally, we will present the potential hydrological and ecological changes by the end of the 21st century.

Climate Change Impacts on River Temperature in the Southeastern United States: A Case Study of the Tennessee River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Y.; Niemeyer, R. J.; Mao, Y.; Yearsley, J. R.; Nijssen, B.

2016-12-01

In the coming decades, climate change and population growth are expected to affect water and energy supply as well as demand in the southeastern United States. Changes in temperature and precipitation impact river flow and stream temperature with implications for hydropower generation, industrial and municipal water supply, cooling for thermo-electric power plants, agricultural irrigation, ecosystem functions and flood control. At the same time, water and energy demand are expected to change in response to temperature increase, population growth and changing crop water requirements. As part of a multi-institution study of the food-energy-water nexus in the southeastern U.S., we are developing coupled hydrological and stream temperature models that will be linked to water resources, power systems and crop models at a later stage. Here we evaluate the ability of our system to simulate water supply and stream temperature in the Tennessee River Basin using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model coupled to the River Basin Model (RBM), a 1-D semi-Lagrangian river temperature model, which has recently been expanded with a two-layer reservoir temperature model. Simulations with VIC-RBM were performed for the Tennessee River Basin at 1/8-degree spatial resolution and a temporal resolution of 1 day or less. Reservoir releases were prescribed based on historic operating rules. In future iterations, these releases will be modeled directly by a water resources model that incorporates flood control, and power and agricultural water demands. We compare simulated flows, as well as stream and reservoir temperatures with observed flows and temperatures throughout the basin. In preparation for later stages of the project, we also perform a set of climate change sensitivity experiments to evaluate how changes in climate may impact river and reservoir temperature.

Real-Time Global Flood Estimation Using Satellite-Based Precipitation and a Coupled Land Surface and Routing Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Huan; Adler, Robert F.; Tian, Yudong; Huffman, George J.; Li, Hongyi; Wang, JianJian

2014-01-01

A widely used land surface model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, is coupled with a newly developed hierarchical dominant river tracing-based runoff-routing model to form the Dominant river tracing-Routing Integrated with VIC Environment (DRIVE) model, which serves as the new core of the real-time Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS). The GFMS uses real-time satellite-based precipitation to derive flood monitoring parameters for the latitude band 50 deg. N - 50 deg. S at relatively high spatial (approximately 12 km) and temporal (3 hourly) resolution. Examples of model results for recent flood events are computed using the real-time GFMS (http://flood.umd.edu). To evaluate the accuracy of the new GFMS, the DRIVE model is run retrospectively for 15 years using both research-quality and real-time satellite precipitation products. Evaluation results are slightly better for the research-quality input and significantly better for longer duration events (3 day events versus 1 day events). Basins with fewer dams tend to provide lower false alarm ratios. For events longer than three days in areas with few dams, the probability of detection is approximately 0.9 and the false alarm ratio is approximately 0.6. In general, these statistical results are better than those of the previous system. Streamflow was evaluated at 1121 river gauges across the quasi-global domain. Validation using real-time precipitation across the tropics (30 deg. S - 30 deg. N) gives positive daily Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficients for 107 out of 375 (28%) stations with a mean of 0.19 and 51% of the same gauges at monthly scale with a mean of 0.33. There were poorer results in higher latitudes, probably due to larger errors in the satellite precipitation input.

Characterization of errors in a coupled snow hydrology-microwave emission model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andreadis, K.M.; Liang, D.; Tsang, L.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Josberger, E.G.

2008-01-01

Traditional approaches to the direct estimation of snow properties from passive microwave remote sensing have been plagued by limitations such as the tendency of estimates to saturate for moderately deep snowpacks and the effects of mixed land cover within remotely sensed pixels. An alternative approach is to assimilate satellite microwave emission observations directly, which requires embedding an accurate microwave emissions model into a hydrologic prediction scheme, as well as quantitative information of model and observation errors. In this study a coupled snow hydrology [Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC)] and microwave emission [Dense Media Radiative Transfer (DMRT)] model are evaluated using multiscale brightness temperature (TB) measurements from the Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX). The ability of VIC to reproduce snowpack properties is shown with the use of snow pit measurements, while TB model predictions are evaluated through comparison with Ground-Based Microwave Radiometer (GBMR), air-craft [Polarimetric Scanning Radiometer (PSR)], and satellite [Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E)] TB measurements. Limitations of the model at the point scale were not as evident when comparing areal estimates. The coupled model was able to reproduce the TB spatial patterns observed by PSR in two of three sites. However, this was mostly due to the presence of relatively dense forest cover. An interesting result occurs when examining the spatial scaling behavior of the higher-resolution errors; the satellite-scale error is well approximated by the mode of the (spatial) histogram of errors at the smaller scale. In addition, TB prediction errors were almost invariant when aggregated to the satellite scale, while forest-cover fractions greater than 30% had a significant effect on TB predictions. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.

Framework for event-based semidistributed modeling that unifies the SCS-CN method, VIC, PDM, and TOPMODEL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, M. S.; Parolari, A. J.; McDonnell, J. J.; Porporato, A.

2016-09-01

Hydrologists and engineers may choose from a range of semidistributed rainfall-runoff models such as VIC, PDM, and TOPMODEL, all of which predict runoff from a distribution of watershed properties. However, these models are not easily compared to event-based data and are missing ready-to-use analytical expressions that are analogous to the SCS-CN method. The SCS-CN method is an event-based model that describes the runoff response with a rainfall-runoff curve that is a function of the cumulative storm rainfall and antecedent wetness condition. Here we develop an event-based probabilistic storage framework and distill semidistributed models into analytical, event-based expressions for describing the rainfall-runoff response. The event-based versions called VICx, PDMx, and TOPMODELx also are extended with a spatial description of the runoff concept of "prethreshold" and "threshold-excess" runoff, which occur, respectively, before and after infiltration exceeds a storage capacity threshold. For total storm rainfall and antecedent wetness conditions, the resulting ready-to-use analytical expressions define the source areas (fraction of the watershed) that produce runoff by each mechanism. They also define the probability density function (PDF) representing the spatial variability of runoff depths that are cumulative values for the storm duration, and the average unit area runoff, which describes the so-called runoff curve. These new event-based semidistributed models and the traditional SCS-CN method are unified by the same general expression for the runoff curve. Since the general runoff curve may incorporate different model distributions, it may ease the way for relating such distributions to land use, climate, topography, ecology, geology, and other characteristics.

Real-time global flood estimation using satellite-based precipitation and a coupled land surface and routing model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Huan; Adler, Robert F.; Tian, Yudong

2014-03-01

A widely used land surface model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, is coupled with a newly developed hierarchical dominant river tracing-based runoff-routing model to form the Dominant river tracing-Routing Integrated with VIC Environment (DRIVE) model, which serves as the new core of the real-time Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS). The GFMS uses real-time satellite-based precipitation to derive flood monitoring parameters for the latitude band 50°N–50°S at relatively high spatial (~12 km) and temporal (3 hourly) resolution. Examples of model results for recent flood events are computed using the real-time GFMS (http://flood.umd.edu). To evaluate the accuracy of the new GFMS,more » the DRIVE model is run retrospectively for 15 years using both research-quality and real-time satellite precipitation products. Evaluation results are slightly better for the research-quality input and significantly better for longer duration events (3 day events versus 1 day events). Basins with fewer dams tend to provide lower false alarm ratios. For events longer than three days in areas with few dams, the probability of detection is ~0.9 and the false alarm ratio is ~0.6. In general, these statistical results are better than those of the previous system. Streamflow was evaluated at 1121 river gauges across the quasi-global domain. Validation using real-time precipitation across the tropics (30°S–30°N) gives positive daily Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficients for 107 out of 375 (28%) stations with a mean of 0.19 and 51% of the same gauges at monthly scale with a mean of 0.33. Finally, there were poorer results in higher latitudes, probably due to larger errors in the satellite precipitation input.« less

Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Gao, Huilin; Rastogi, Deeksha; Gangrade, Sudershan

2018-01-01

The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. In this study, we evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 138 headwater subbasins located upstream of reservoirs across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble of global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. Four commonly used indices, including mean annual flow, annual center timing, 100-year daily high streamflow, and 10-year 7-day average low streamflow were used for evaluation. The results projected an increase in the high streamflow by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States (US) and a decrease in the low streamflow by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western US. In the eastern US, frequencies of both high and low streamflow were projected to increase in the majority of subbasins upstream of both hydropower and flood control reservoirs. Increased frequencies of both high and low streamflow events can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. This study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.

Modulation of Human Valve Interstitial Cell Phenotype and Function Using a Fibroblast Growth Factor 2 Formulation

PubMed Central

Latif, Najma; Quillon, Alfred; Sarathchandra, Padmini; McCormack, Ann; Lozanoski, Alec; Yacoub, Magdi H.; Chester, Adrian H.

2015-01-01

Valve interstitial cells (VICs) are fibroblastic in nature however in culture it is widely accepted that they differentiate into a myofibroblastic phenotype. This study assessed a fibroblast culture media formulation for its ability to maintain the phenotype and function of VICs as in the intact healthy valve. Normal human VICs were cultured separately in standard DMEM and in fibroblast media consisting of FGF2 (10ng/ml), insulin (50ng/ml) and 2% FCS for at least a week. Cell morphology, aspect ratio, size, levels and distribution of protein expression, proliferation, cell cycle, contraction and migration were assessed. Some VICs and some valve endothelial cells expressed FGF2 in valve tissue and this expression was increased in calcified valves. VICs in DMEM exhibited large, spread cells whereas VICs in fibroblast media were smaller, elongated and spindly. Aspect ratio and size were both significantly higher in DMEM (p<0.01). The level of expression of α-SMA was significantly reduced in fibroblast media at day 2 after isolation (p<0.01) and the expression of α-SMA, SM22 and EDA-fibronectin was significantly reduced in fibroblast media at days 7 and 12 post-isolation (p<0.01). Expression of cytoskeletal proteins, bone marker proteins and extracellular matrix proteins was reduced in fibroblast media. Proliferation of VICs in fibroblast media was significantly reduced at weeks 1 (p<0.05) and 2 (p<0.01). Collagen gel contraction was significantly reduced in fibroblast media (p<0.05). VICs were found to have significantly fewer and smaller focal adhesions in fibroblast media (p<0.01) with significantly fewer supermature focal adhesions in fibroblast media (p<0.001). Ultrastructurally, VICs in fibroblast media resembled native VICs from intact valves. VICs in fibroblast media demonstrated a slower migratory ability after wounding at 72 hours (p<0.01). Treatment of human VICs with this fibroblast media formulation has the ability to maintain and to dedifferentiate the VICs back to a fibroblastic phenotype with phenotypic and functional characteristics ascribed to cells in the intact valve. This methodology is fundamental in the study of normal valve biology, pathology and in the field of tissue engineering. PMID:26042674

Developing High-resolution Soil Database for Regional Crop Modeling in East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, E.; Ines, A. V. M.

2014-12-01

The most readily available soil data for regional crop modeling in Africa is the World Inventory of Soil Emission potentials (WISE) dataset, which has 1125 soil profiles for the world, but does not extensively cover countries Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania in East Africa. Another dataset available is the HC27 (Harvest Choice by IFPRI) in a gridded format (10km) but composed of generic soil profiles based on only three criteria (texture, rooting depth, and organic carbon content). In this paper, we present a development and application of a high-resolution (1km), gridded soil database for regional crop modeling in East Africa. Basic soil information is extracted from Africa Soil Information Service (AfSIS), which provides essential soil properties (bulk density, soil organic carbon, soil PH and percentages of sand, silt and clay) for 6 different standardized soil layers (5, 15, 30, 60, 100 and 200 cm) in 1km resolution. Soil hydraulic properties (e.g., field capacity and wilting point) are derived from the AfSIS soil dataset using well-proven pedo-transfer functions and are customized for DSSAT-CSM soil data requirements. The crop model is used to evaluate crop yield forecasts using the new high resolution soil database and compared with WISE and HC27. In this paper we will present also the results of DSSAT loosely coupled with a hydrologic model (VIC) to assimilate root-zone soil moisture. Creating a grid-based soil database, which provides a consistent soil input for two different models (DSSAT and VIC) is a critical part of this work. The created soil database is expected to contribute to future applications of DSSAT crop simulation in East Africa where food security is highly vulnerable.

Future water supply and demand in response to climate change and agricultural expansion in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Zhou, T.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.

2016-12-01

With ongoing global environmental change and an increasing population, it is challenging (to say the least) to understand the complex interactions of irrigation and reservoir systems. Irrigation is critical to agricultural production and food security, and is a vital component of Texas' agricultural economy. Agricultural irrigation currently accounts for about 60% of total water demand in Texas, and recent occurrences of severe droughts has brought attention to the availability and use of water in the future. In this study, we aim to assess future agricultural irrigation water demand, and to estimate how changes in the fraction of crop irrigated land will affect future water availability in Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the United States. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which has been calibrated and validated over major Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model, coupling with an irrigation scheme and a reservoir module, is adopted to simulate the water management and regulations. The evolution on agricultural land is also considered in the model as a changing fraction of crop for each grid cell. The reservoir module is calibrated and validated based on the historical (1915-2011) storage records of major reservoirs in Texas. The model is driven by statistically downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The lowest (RCP 2.6) and highest (RC P8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios are adopted for future projections to provide an estimate of uncertainty bounds. We expect that our results will be helpful to assist decision making related to reservoir operations and agricultural water planning for Texas under future climate and environmental changes.

Reply to comment by Fred L. Ogden et al. on "Beyond the SCS-CN method: A theoretical framework for spatially lumped rainfall-runoff response"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, M. S.; Parolari, A. J.; McDonnell, J. J.; Porporato, A.

2017-07-01

Though Ogden et al. list several shortcomings of the original SCS-CN method, fit for purpose is a key consideration in hydrological modelling, as shown by the adoption of SCS-CN method in many design standards. The theoretical framework of Bartlett et al. [2016a] reveals a family of semidistributed models, of which the SCS-CN method is just one member. Other members include event-based versions of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and TOPMODEL. This general model allows us to move beyond the limitations of the original SCS-CN method under different rainfall-runoff mechanisms and distributions for soil and rainfall variability. Future research should link this general model approach to different hydrogeographic settings, in line with the call for action proposed by Ogden et al.

Linking Time and Space Scales in Distributed Hydrological Modelling - a case study for the VIC model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melsen, Lieke; Teuling, Adriaan; Torfs, Paul; Zappa, Massimiliano; Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2015-04-01

One of the famous paradoxes of the Greek philosopher Zeno of Elea (~450 BC) is the one with the arrow: If one shoots an arrow, and cuts its motion into such small time steps that at every step the arrow is standing still, the arrow is motionless, because a concatenation of non-moving parts does not create motion. Nowadays, this reasoning can be refuted easily, because we know that motion is a change in space over time, which thus by definition depends on both time and space. If one disregards time by cutting it into infinite small steps, motion is also excluded. This example shows that time and space are linked and therefore hard to evaluate separately. As hydrologists we want to understand and predict the motion of water, which means we have to look both in space and in time. In hydrological models we can account for space by using spatially explicit models. With increasing computational power and increased data availability from e.g. satellites, it has become easier to apply models at a higher spatial resolution. Increasing the resolution of hydrological models is also labelled as one of the 'Grand Challenges' in hydrology by Wood et al. (2011) and Bierkens et al. (2014), who call for global modelling at hyperresolution (~1 km and smaller). A literature survey on 242 peer-viewed articles in which the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was used, showed that the spatial resolution at which the model is applied has decreased over the past 17 years: From 0.5 to 2 degrees when the model was just developed, to 1/8 and even 1/32 degree nowadays. On the other hand the literature survey showed that the time step at which the model is calibrated and/or validated remained the same over the last 17 years; mainly daily or monthly. Klemeš (1983) stresses the fact that space and time scales are connected, and therefore downscaling the spatial scale would also imply downscaling of the temporal scale. Is it worth the effort of downscaling your model from 1 degree to 1/24 degree, if in the end you only look at monthly runoff? In this study an attempt is made to link time and space scales in the VIC model, to study the added value of a higher spatial resolution-model for different time steps. In order to do this, four different VIC models were constructed for the Thur basin in North-Eastern Switzerland (1700 km²), a tributary of the Rhine: one lumped model, and three spatially distributed models with a resolution of respectively 1x1 km, 5x5 km, and 10x10 km. All models are run at an hourly time step and aggregated and calibrated for different time steps (hourly, daily, monthly, yearly) using a novel Hierarchical Latin Hypercube Sampling Technique (Vořechovský, 2014). For each time and space scale, several diagnostics like Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling-Gupta efficiency, all the quantiles of the discharge etc., are calculated in order to compare model performance over different time and space scales for extreme events like floods and droughts. Next to that, the effect of time and space scale on the parameter distribution can be studied. In the end we hope to find a link for optimal time and space scale combinations.

Reducing hydrologic model uncertainty in monthly streamflow predictions using multimodel combination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Weihua; Sankarasubramanian, A.

2012-12-01

Model errors are inevitable in any prediction exercise. One approach that is currently gaining attention in reducing model errors is by combining multiple models to develop improved predictions. The rationale behind this approach primarily lies on the premise that optimal weights could be derived for each model so that the developed multimodel predictions will result in improved predictions. A new dynamic approach (MM-1) to combine multiple hydrological models by evaluating their performance/skill contingent on the predictor state is proposed. We combine two hydrological models, "abcd" model and variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, to develop multimodel streamflow predictions. To quantify precisely under what conditions the multimodel combination results in improved predictions, we compare multimodel scheme MM-1 with optimal model combination scheme (MM-O) by employing them in predicting the streamflow generated from a known hydrologic model (abcd model orVICmodel) with heteroscedastic error variance as well as from a hydrologic model that exhibits different structure than that of the candidate models (i.e., "abcd" model or VIC model). Results from the study show that streamflow estimated from single models performed better than multimodels under almost no measurement error. However, under increased measurement errors and model structural misspecification, both multimodel schemes (MM-1 and MM-O) consistently performed better than the single model prediction. Overall, MM-1 performs better than MM-O in predicting the monthly flow values as well as in predicting extreme monthly flows. Comparison of the weights obtained from each candidate model reveals that as measurement errors increase, MM-1 assigns weights equally for all the models, whereas MM-O assigns higher weights for always the best-performing candidate model under the calibration period. Applying the multimodel algorithms for predicting streamflows over four different sites revealed that MM-1 performs better than all single models and optimal model combination scheme, MM-O, in predicting the monthly flows as well as the flows during wetter months.

Landslide Hazard from Coupled Inherent and Dynamic Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, R. L.; Istanbulluoglu, E.; Nudurupati, S. S.

2015-12-01

Landslide hazard research has typically been conducted independently from hydroclimate research. We sought to unify these two lines of research to provide regional scale landslide hazard information for risk assessments and resource management decision-making. Our approach couples an empirical inherent landslide probability, based on a frequency ratio analysis, with a numerical dynamic probability, generated by combining subsurface water recharge and surface runoff from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale land surface hydrologic model with a finer resolution probabilistic slope stability model. Landslide hazard mapping is advanced by combining static and dynamic models of stability into a probabilistic measure of geohazard prediction in both space and time. This work will aid resource management decision-making in current and future landscape and climatic conditions. The approach is applied as a case study in North Cascade National Park Complex in northern Washington State.

Modeling land surface hydrology sensitivity in the Colorado River Basin to historical climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitney, K. M.; Bohn, T. J.; Vivoni, E. R.

2017-12-01

Over the past century, the Colorado River Basin (CRB) has experienced substantial warming and interannual climate variations, including prolonged drought periods. These patterns are projected to accelerate in the 21st century, with major consequences for water resources in the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico. To evaluate future projections appropriately, however, it is important to first quantify the regional hydrologic response to historical climate variability in the CRB. In the current effort, we force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface hydrology model and a river routing model with historical meteorological data to estimate water balance components and naturalized streamflow response in the CRB at 1/16o spatial resolution and at an hourly time step over the period 1950-2013. We utilize data products from satellite remote sensing to specify spatiotemporal variations in vegetation parameters and include an irrigation scheme to account for evapotranspiration from croplands in the CRB. Furthermore, we apply recent modifications in VIC to more properly account for bare soil evaporation in arid and semiarid ecosystems. Analyses of the historical model simulations are focused on quantifying the spatiotemporal variability of the soil moisture, evapotranspiration, streamflow and snowmelt response and their linkages to extreme meteorological events. Here we characterize the annual and monthly distributions, trends, and statistical extremes and central tendencies of water balance terms averaged over the CRB and its sub-basins for the entire study period 1950-2013. By building a model-based hydrologic climatology and catalog of historical extreme events for the CRB, we aim to construct a basis for future activities that analyze the impact of statistically downscaled climate change projections on the hydrology of the CRB and its urban areas.

How many patients with coronary heart disease are not achieving their risk-factor targets? Experience in Victoria 1996-1998 versus 1999-2000.

PubMed

Vale, Margarite J; Jelinek, Michael V; Best, James D

2002-03-04

To determine the proportion of patients with established coronary heart disease (CHD) in two Australian studies (VIC-I in 1996-1998, and VIC-II in 1999-2000) who achieved their risk-factor targets as recommended by the National Heart Foundation of Australia, and to compare this proportion with those in studies from the United Kingdom (ASPIRE), Europe (EUROASPIRE I and II) and the United States (L-TAP). Prospective cohort study with VIC-I set in a single Melbourne university teaching hospital and VIC-II set in six university teaching hospitals in Melbourne, Victoria. 460 patients (112 in VIC-I, 348 in VIC-II) who completed follow-up in the control groups of two randomised controlled trials of a coaching intervention in patients with established CHD. The treatment gap (100%, minus the percentage of patients achieving the target level for a particular modifiable risk factor) at six months after hospitalisation. The treatment gap declined from 96.4% (95% CI, 91%-99%) to 74.1% (95% CI, 69%-79%) for total cholesterol concentration (TC) < 4.0 mmol/L (P = 0.0001) and from 90.2% (95% CI, 83%-95%) to 54.0% (95% CI, 49%-59%) for TC < 4.5 mmol/L (P = 0.0001). This reduction in the treatment gap between VIC-I and VIC-II appears to be entirely explained by an increase in the number of patients prescribed lipid-lowering drugs. The treatment gaps in the UK and two European studies were substantially greater. The treatment gap for blood pressure (systolic > or = 140 mmHg and/or diastolic > or = 90 mmHg) in VIC-II was 39.5%, again less than corresponding European data. There were 8.1% of patients who had unrecognised diabetes in VIC-II (fasting glucose level > or = 7 mmol/L), making a total of 25.6% of VIC-II patients with diabetes, self-reported or unrecognised. The proportion of patients in VIC-II who were obese (body mass index > or = 30 kg/m2) was similar to the overseas studies, while fewer patients in VIC-II smoked compared with those in the UK and European studies. A substantial treatment gap exists in Victorian patients with established CHD. The treatment gap compares well with international surveys and, at least in the lipid area, is diminishing.

Development of a SMAP-Based Drought Monitoring Product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadri, S.; Wood, E. F.; Pan, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2016-12-01

Agricultural drought is defined as a deficit in the amount of soil moisture over a prolonged period of time. Soil moisture information over time and space provides critical insight for agricultural management, including both water availability for crops and moisture conditions that affect management practices such as fertilizer, pesticide applications, and their impact as non-point pollution runoff. Since April of 2015, NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission has retrieved soil moisture using L-band passive radiometric measurements at a 8 day repeat orbit with a swath of 1000 km that maps the Earth in 2-3 days depending on locations. Of particular interest to SMAP-based agricultural applications is a monitoring product that assesses the SMAP soil moisture in terms of probability percentiles for dry (drought) or wet (pluvial) conditions. SMAP observations do result in retrievals that are spatially and temporally discontinuous. Additionally, the short SMAP record length provides a statistical challenge in estimating a drought index and thus drought risk evaluations. In this presentation, we describe a SMAP drought index for the CONUS region based on near-surface soil moisture percentiles. Because the length of the SMAP data record is limited, we use a Bayesian conditional probability approach to extend the SMAP record back to 1979 based on simulated soil moisture of the same period from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Land Surface Model (LSM), simulated by Princeton University. This is feasible because the VIC top soil layer (10 cm) is highly correlated with the SMAP 36 km passive microwave during 2015-2016, with more than half the CONUS grids having a cross-correlation greater than 0.6, and over 0.9 in many regions. Given the extended SMAP record, we construct an empirical probability distribution of near-surface soil moisture drought index showing severities similar to those used by the U.S. Drought Monitor (from D0-D4), for a specific SMAP observation. The analysis is done for each of the 8,150 SMAP grids covering the CONUS domain. Comparisons between the SMAP drought index and that from the VIC LSM are presented for selected recent drought events. Issues such as seasonality, robustness of the fitting, regions of poor SMAP-VIC correlations, and extensions to other areas will be discussed.

Improving Representations of Near-Surface Permafrost and Soil Temperature Profiles in the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gergel, D. R.; Hamman, J.; Nijssen, B.

2017-12-01

Permafrost and seasonally frozen soils are a key characteristic of the terrestrial Arctic, and the fate of near-surface permafrost as a result of climate change is projected to have strong impacts on terrestrial biogeochemistry. The active layer thickness (ALT) is the layer of soil that freezes and thaws annually, and shifts in the depth of the ALT are projected to occur over large areas of the Arctic that are characterized by discontinuous permafrost. Faithful representation of permafrost in land models in climate models is a product of both soil dynamics and the coupling of air and soil temperatures. A common problem is a large bias in simulated ALT due to a model depth that is too shallow. Similarly, soil temperatures often show systematic biases, which lead to biases in air temperature due to poorly modeled air-soil temperature feedbacks in a coupled environment. In this study, we use the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), a fully-coupled regional earth system model that is run at a 50-km land/atmosphere resolution over a pan-Arctic domain and uses the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model as its land model. To understand what modeling decisions are necessary to accurately represent near-surface permafrost and soil temperature profiles, we perform a large number of RASM simulations with prescribed atmospheric forcings (e.g. VIC in standalone mode in RASM) while varying the model soil depth, thickness of soil moisture layers, number of soil layers and the distribution of soil nodes. We compare modeled soil temperatures and ALT to observations from the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) network. CALM observations include annual ALT observations as well as daily soil temperature measurements at three soil depths for three sites in Alaska. In the future, we will use our results to inform our modeling of permafrost dynamics in fully-coupled RASM simulations.

Exploring the causes of Colorado River streamflow declines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Udall, B. H.

2016-12-01

As the major river of the Southwestern U.S., the Colorado River (CR) is central to the region's water resources. Over the period 1916-2014, the river's naturalized Apr-Sep flow at Lee's Ferry declined by 18.4%, a number that is closely matched (19.8%) by reconstructions for the same period using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model. However, basin-average annual precipitation over that period declined by only 4.4%. In order to examine the causes of the runoff declines, we performed experiments with the VIC model in which we detrended the model's temperature forcings (about 1.6°C over the 100-year record) for each of 24 sub-basins that make up the basin. We find that decreases in winter precipitation (the season that controls annual runoff) mostly occured in the northeast part of the basin while summer precipitation decreases (which have much less effect on annual runoff) occurred over much of the lower basin. Our model simulations suggest that about 2/3 of observed runoff declines are attributable to decreases in winter precipitation (most importantly, in the upper basin, where most of the basin's runoff is generated). The remaining 1/3 is attributable to warming temperatures. We also examine what appear to be changing characteristics of droughts in the basin. Compared with a prolonged drought in the 1960s, which was characterized by abnormally low precipitation and cool temperatures, temperatures during the ongoing millennial drought have been much warmer, but winter precipitation anomalies have been only slightly negative. During the 2000s drought, the basin-wide runoff anomaly has been about -3.8 km3/yr, with four sub-basins in the northeastern part of the basin accounting for about 2/3 of the annual runoff anomaly.

GC23G-1310: Investigation Into the Effects of Climate Variability and Land Cover Change on the Hydrologic System of the Lower Mekong Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markert, Kel N.; Griffin, Robert; Limaye, Ashutosh S.; McNider, Richard T.; Anderson, Eric R.

2016-01-01

The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) is an economically and ecologically important region that experiences hydrologic hazards such as floods and droughts, which can directly affect human well-being and limit economic growth and development. To effectively develop long-term plans for addressing hydrologic hazards, the regional hydrological response to climate variability and land cover change needs to be evaluated. This research aims to investigate how climate variability, specifically variations in the precipitation regime, and land cover change will affect hydrologic parameters both spatially and temporally within the LMB. The research goal is achieved by (1) modeling land cover change for a baseline land cover change scenario as well as changes in land cover with increases in forest or agriculture and (2) using projected climate variables and modeled land cover data as inputs into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to simulate the changes to the hydrologic system. The VIC model outputs were analyzed against historic values to understand the relative contribution of climate variability and land cover to change, where these changes occur, and to what degree these changes affect the hydrology. This study found that the LMB hydrologic system is more sensitive to climate variability than land cover change. On average, climate variability was found to increase discharge and evapotranspiration (ET) while decreasing water storage. The change in land cover show that increasing forest area will slightly decrease discharge and increase ET while increasing agriculture area increases discharge and decreases ET. These findings will help the LMB by supporting individual country policy to plan for future hydrologic changes as well as policy for the basin as a whole.

On the changing contribution of snow to the hydrology of the Fraser River Basin, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dery, S. J.; Kang, D.; Shi, X.; Gao, H.

2013-12-01

This talk will present an application of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia (BC), Canada over the latter half of the 20th century. The Fraser River is the longest waterway in BC and supports the world's most abundant Pacific Ocean salmon populations. Previous modeling and observational studies have demonstrated that the FRB is a snow-dominated system but with climate change it may evolve to a pluvial regime. Thus the goal of this study is to evaluate the changing contribution of snow to the hydrology of the watershed over the latter half of the 20th century. To this end, a 0.25° atmospheric forcing dataset is used to drive the VIC model from 1948 to 2006 at a daily time step over a domain covering the entire FRB. A model evaluation is first conducted over 11 major sub-watersheds of the FRB to quantitatively assess the spatial variations of snow water equivalent (SWE) and runoff. The ratio of the spatially averaged maximum SWE to runoff (RSR) is used to quantify the contribution of snow to the runoff in the 11 sub-watersheds of interest. From 1948 to 2006, RSR exhibits a significant decreasing trend in 9 of the 11 sub-watersheds (at a 0.05 of p-value according to the Mann-Kendall Test statistics). Changes in snow accumulation and melt lead to significant advances of the spring freshet throughout the basin. As the climate continues to warm, ecological processes and human usage of natural resources in the FRB may be substantially affected by its transition from a snow to a hybrid (nival/pluvial) and even a rain-dominated watershed.

Basin-scale assessment of the land surface energy budget in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational and research NLDAS-2 systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Youlong; Cosgrove, Brian A.; Mitchell, Kenneth E.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Ek, Michael B.; Kumar, Sujay; Mocko, David; Wei, Helin

2016-01-01

This paper compares the annual and monthly components of the simulated energy budget from the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS-2) with reference products over the domains of the 12 River Forecast Centers (RFCs) of the continental United States (CONUS). The simulations are calculated from both operational and research versions of NLDAS-2. The reference radiation components are obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Surface Radiation Budget product. The reference sensible and latent heat fluxes are obtained from a multitree ensemble method applied to gridded FLUXNET data from the Max Planck Institute, Germany. As these references are obtained from different data sources, they cannot fully close the energy budget, although the range of closure error is less than 15% for mean annual results. The analysis here demonstrates the usefulness of basin-scale surface energy budget analysis for evaluating model skill and deficiencies. The operational (i.e., Noah, Mosaic, and VIC) and research (i.e., Noah-I and VIC4.0.5) NLDAS-2 land surface models exhibit similarities and differences in depicting basin-averaged energy components. For example, the energy components of the five models have similar seasonal cycles, but with different magnitudes. Generally, Noah and VIC overestimate (underestimate) sensible (latent) heat flux over several RFCs of the eastern CONUS. In contrast, Mosaic underestimates (overestimates) sensible (latent) heat flux over almost all 12 RFCs. The research Noah-I and VIC4.0.5 versions show moderate-to-large improvements (basin and model dependent) relative to their operational versions, which indicates likely pathways for future improvements in the operational NLDAS-2 system.

Basin-Scale Assessment of the Land Surface Energy Budget in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Operational and Research NLDAS-2 Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xia, Youlong; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Cosgrove, Brian A.; Mitchell, Kenneth E.; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Ek, Michael B.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Mocko, David M.; Wei, Helin

2015-01-01

This paper compares the annual and monthly components of the simulated energy budget from the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS-2) with reference products over the domains of the 12 River Forecast Centers (RFCs) of the continental United States (CONUS). The simulations are calculated from both operational and research versions of NLDAS-2. The reference radiation components are obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Surface Radiation Budget product. The reference sensible and latent heat fluxes are obtained from a multitree ensemble method applied to gridded FLUXNET data from the Max Planck Institute, Germany. As these references are obtained from different data sources, they cannot fully close the energy budget, although the range of closure error is less than 15%formean annual results. The analysis here demonstrates the usefulness of basin-scale surface energy budget analysis for evaluating model skill and deficiencies. The operational (i.e., Noah, Mosaic, and VIC) and research (i.e., Noah-I and VIC4.0.5) NLDAS-2 land surface models exhibit similarities and differences in depicting basin-averaged energy components. For example, the energy components of the five models have similar seasonal cycles, but with different magnitudes. Generally, Noah and VIC overestimate (underestimate) sensible (latent) heat flux over several RFCs of the eastern CONUS. In contrast, Mosaic underestimates (overestimates) sensible (latent) heat flux over almost all 12 RFCs. The research Noah-I and VIC4.0.5 versions show moderate-to-large improvements (basin and model dependent) relative to their operational versions, which indicates likely pathways for future improvements in the operational NLDAS-2 system.

Hydrological climate change projections for Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidalgo, Hugo G.; Amador, Jorge A.; Alfaro, Eric J.; Quesada, Beatriz

2013-07-01

Runoff climate change projections for the 21st century were calculated from a suite of 30 General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations for the A1B emission scenario in a 0.5° × 0.5° grid over Central America. The GCM data were downscaled using a version of the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) method and then used in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model. The VIC model showed calibration skill in Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama, but the results for some of the northern countries (Guatemala, El Salvador and Belize) and for the Caribbean coast of Central America was not satisfactory. Bias correction showed to remove effectively the biases in the GCMs. Results of the projected climate in the 2050-2099 period showed median significant reductions in precipitation (as much as 5-10%) and runoff (as much as 10-30%) in northern Central America. Therefore in this sub-region the prevalence of severe drought may increase significantly in the future under this emissions scenario. Northern Central America could warm as much as 3 °C during 2050-2099 and southern Central America could reach increases as much as 4 °C during the same period. The projected dry pattern over Central America is consistent with a southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In addition, downscaling of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data from 1948 to 2012 and posterior run in VIC, for two locations in the northern and southern sub-regions of Central America, suggested that the annual runoff has been decreasing since ca. 1980, which is consistent with the sign of the runoff changes of the GCM projections. However, the Reanalysis 1980-2012 drying trends are generally much stronger than the corresponding GCM trends. Among the possible reasons for that discrepancy are model deficiencies, amplification of the trends due to constructive interference with natural modes of variability in the Reanalysis data, errors in the Reanalysis (modeled) precipitation data, and that the drying signal is more pronounced than predicted by the emissions scenario used. A few studies show that extrapolations of future climate from paleoclimatic indicators project a wetter climate in northern Central America, which is inconsistent with the modeling results presented here. However, these types of extrapolations should be done with caution, as the future climate responds to an extra forcing mechanism (anthropogenic) that was not present prehistorically and therefore the response could also be different than in the past.

Surface Water and Energy Budgets for Sub-Saharan Africa in GFDL Coupled Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, D.; Wood, E. F.; Vecchi, G. A.; Jia, L.; Pan, M.

2015-12-01

This study compare surface water and energy budget variables from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) FLOR models with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Princeton University Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset (PGF), and PGF-driven Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model outputs, as well as available observations over the sub-Saharan Africa. The comparison was made for four configurations of the FLOR models that included FLOR phase 1 (FLOR-p1) and phase 2 (FLOR-p2) and two phases of flux adjusted versions (FLOR-FA-p1 and FLOR-FA-p2). Compared to p1, simulated atmospheric states in p2 were nudged to the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis. The seasonal cycle and annual mean of major surface water (precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and change of storage) and energy variables (sensible heat, ground heat, latent heat, net solar radiation, net longwave radiation, and skin temperature) over a 34-yr period during 1981-2014 were compared in different regions in sub-Saharan Africa (West Africa, East Africa, and Southern Africa). In addition to evaluating the means in three sub-regions, empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) analyses were conducted to compare both spatial and temporal characteristics of water and energy budget variables from four versions of GFDL FLOR, NCEP CFSR, PGF, and VIC outputs. This presentation will show how well each coupled climate model represented land surface physics and reproduced spatiotemporal characteristics of surface water and energy budget variables. We discuss what caused differences in surface water and energy budgets in land surface components of coupled climate model, climate reanalysis, and reanalysis driven land surface model. The comparisons will reveal whether flux adjustment and nudging would improve depiction of the surface water and energy budgets in coupled climate models.

In-vitro analysis of early calcification in aortic valvular interstitial cells using Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS).

PubMed

Davari, Seyyed Ali; Masjedi, Shirin; Ferdous, Zannatul; Mukherjee, Dibyendu

2018-01-01

Calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) is a major cardiovascular disorder caused by osteogenic differentiation of valvular interstitial cells (VICs) within aortic valves. Conventional methods like colorimetric assays and histology fail to detect small calcium depositions during in-vitro VIC cultures. Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) is a robust analytical tool used for inorganic materials characterizations, but relatively new to biomedical applications. We employ LIBS, for the first time, for quantitative in-vitro detection of calcium depositions in VICs at various osteogenic differentiation stages. VICs isolated from porcine aortic valves were cultured in osteogenic media over various days. Colorimetric calcium assays based on arsenazo dye and Von Kossa staining measured the calcium depositions within VICs. Simultaneously, LIBS signatures for Ca I (422.67 nm) atomic emission lines were collected for estimating calcium depositions in lyophilized VIC samples. Our results indicate excellent linear correlation between the calcium assay and our LIBS measurements. Furthermore, unlike the assay results, the LIBS results could resolve calcium signals from cell samples with as early as 2 days of osteogenic culture. Quantitatively, the LIBS measurements establish the limit of detection for calcium content in VICs to be ∼0.17±0.04 μg which indicates a 5-fold improvement over calcium assay. Picture: Quantitative LIBS enables in-vitro analysis for early stage detection of calcium deposition within aortic valvular interstitial cells (VICs). © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Large-Scale Simulation of the Effects of Climate Change on Runoff Erosion Following Extreme Wildfire Events Authors: Gould, Adam, Warren, Barber, Wagenbrenner, Robichaud, Wang, Cherkauer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gould, G.; Adam, J. C.; Barber, M. E.; Wagenbrenner, J. W.; Robichaud, P. R.; Wang, L.; Cherkauer, K. A.

2012-12-01

Across the western U.S., there is clear concern for increases in wildfire occurrence, severity, and post-fire runoff erosion due to projected climate changes. The aim of this study was to advance our capability to simulate post-fire runoff erosion at scales larger than a single hillslope to examine the relative contribution of sediment being released to larger streams and rivers in response to wildfire. We applied the Variable Capacity Infiltration-Water Erosion Prediction Project (VIC-WEPP), a newly-developed physically-based modeling framework that combines large-scale hydrology with hillslope-scale runoff erosion, over the Salmon River basin (SRB) in central Idaho. We selected the SRB for this study because of recent research that suggested that forest wildfires are likely contributing the majority of coarser sands that settle in downstream navigation channels and in reservoirs, causing adverse impacts to aquatic life, navigation, and flood storage. Using the Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR), burn intensity and severity maps show the regularity of wildfire occurrence in the SRB. These maps compare pre-fire images to next growing season images from the Landsat Thematic Mapper multispectral scanning sensor. Rather than implementing WEPP over all hillslopes within the SRB, we applied a representative hillslope approach. A monofractal scaling method downscales globally available 30 arc second digital elevation model (DEM) data to a 30 m resolution for simulations. This information determined the distribution of slope gradients within each VIC grid cell. This study applied VIC-WEPP over the 1979-2010 period and compared an ensemble of future climate simulations for the period of 2041-2070. For future scenarios, we only considered meteorological impacts on post-fire erosion and did not incorporate changes in future fire occurrence or severity. We ran scenarios for a variety of land cover and soil parameter sets, particularly those that relate to pre and post-fire characteristics, such as vegetative cover, interrill and rill erodibility factors, and saturated hydraulic conductivity. Evaluation of runoff erosion at experimental sites, observed by the U.S. Forest Service, involved using Disturbed WEPP which showed reasonable first post-fire year annual erosion predictions. We evaluated VIC-WEPP by comparing sediment observations downstream of the SRB with simulated yields for both pre and post-fire conditions. Generation of maps showing erosion over the SRB for each of the scenarios show specific areas within the SRB to be high, moderate, or low runoff-induced post-fire erosion regions. Our methodology will enable forest managers in the region to incorporate the impacts of changes in meteorological events on runoff erosion into their strategic management plans.

Medium range flood forecasts at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, N.; Wood, A. W.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Wood, E. F.

2006-12-01

While weather and climate forecast methods have advanced greatly over the last two decades, this capability has yet to be evidenced in mitigation of water-related natural hazards (primarily floods and droughts), especially in the developing world. Examples abound of extreme property damage and loss of life due to floods in the underdeveloped world. For instance, more than 4.5 million people were affected by the July 2000 flooding of the Mekong River and its tributaries in Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand. The February- March 2000 floods in the Limpopo River of Mozambique caused extreme disruption to that country's fledgling economy. Mitigation of these events through advance warning has typically been modest at best. Despite the above noted improvement in weather and climate forecasts, there is at present no system for forecasting of floods globally, notwithstanding that the potential clearly exists. We describe a methodology that is eventually intended to generate global flood predictions routinely. It draws heavily from the experimental North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and the companion Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) for development of nowcasts, and the University of Washington Experimental Hydrologic Prediction System to develop ensemble hydrologic forecasts based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models which serve both as nowcasts (and hence reduce the need for in situ precipitation and other observations in parts of the world where surface networks are critically deficient) and provide forecasts for lead times as long as fifteen days. The heart of the hydrologic modeling system is the University of Washington/Princeton University Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model. In the prototype (tested using retrospective data), VIC is driven globally up to the time of forecast with daily ERA40 precipitation (rescaled on a monthly basis to a station-based global climatology), ERA40 wind, and ERA40 average surface air temperature (with temperature ranges adjusted to a station-based climatology). In the retrospective forecasting mode, VIC is driven by global NCEP ensemble 15-day reforecasts provided by Tom Hamill (NOAA/ERL), bias corrected with respect to the adjusted ERA40 data and further downscaled spatially using higher spatial resolution Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 1dd daily precipitation. Downward solar and longwave radiation, surface relative humidity, and other model forcings are derived from relationships with the daily temperature range during both the retrospective (spinup) and forecast period. The initial system is implemented globally at one-half degree spatial resolution. We evaluate model performance retrospectively for predictions of major floods for the Oder River in 1997, the Mekong River in 2000 and the Limpopo River in 2000.

Regional hydrologic response to climate change in the conterminous United States using high-resolution hydroclimate simulations

DOE PAGES

Kao, Shih -Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Mei, Rui; ...

2016-06-16

Despite the fact that Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs have been used to project hydrologic impacts of climate change using off-line hydrologic models for two decades, many of these efforts have been disjointed applications or at least calibrations have been focused on individual river basins and using a few of the available GCMs. This study improves upon earlier attempts by systematically projecting hydrologic impacts for the entire conterminous United States (US), using outputs from ten GCMs from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) archive, with seamless hydrologic model calibration and validation techniques to produce a spatially andmore » temporally consistent set of current hydrologic projections. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was forced with ten-member ensemble projections of precipitation and air temperature that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24 (~4 km) grid resolution for the baseline (1966 2005) and future (2011 2050) periods under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Based on regional analysis, the VIC model projections indicate an increase in winter and spring total runoff due to increases in winter precipitation of up to 20% in most regions of the US. However, decreases in snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow-covered days will lead to significant decreases in summer runoff with more pronounced shifts in the time of occurrence of annual peak runoff projected over the eastern and western US. In contrast, the central US will experience year-round increases in total runoff, mostly associated with increases in both extreme high and low runoff. Furthermore, the projected hydrological changes described in this study have implications for various aspects of future water resource management, including water supply, flood and drought preparation, and reservoir operation.« less

Quantitative Evaluation of E1 Endoglucanase Recovery from Tobacco Leaves Using the Vacuum Infiltration-Centrifugation Method

PubMed Central

Kingsbury, Nathaniel J.; McDonald, Karen A.

2014-01-01

As a production platform for recombinant proteins, plant leaf tissue has many advantages, but commercialization of this technology has been hindered by high recovery and purification costs. Vacuum infiltration-centrifugation (VI-C) is a technique to obtain extracellularly-targeted products from the apoplast wash fluid (AWF). Because of its selective recovery of secreted proteins without homogenizing the whole tissue, VI-C can potentially reduce downstream production costs. Lab scale experiments were conducted to quantitatively evaluate the VI-C method and compared to homogenization techniques in terms of product purity, concentration, and other desirable characteristics. From agroinfiltrated Nicotiana benthamiana leaves, up to 81% of a truncated version of E1 endoglucanase from Acidothermus cellulolyticus was recovered with VI-C versus homogenate extraction, and average purity and concentration increases of 4.2-fold and 3.1-fold, respectively, were observed. Formulas were developed to predict recovery yields of secreted protein obtained by performing multiple rounds of VI-C on the same leaf tissue. From this, it was determined that three rounds of VI-C recovered 97% of the total active recombinant protein accessible to the VI-C procedure. The results suggest that AWF recovery is an efficient process that could reduce downstream processing steps and costs for plant-made recombinant proteins. PMID:24971334

Interorganizational Cooperation

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-12

variety of information sharing methods and techniques (e.g., web posting, instant messaging, and printed reports or information downloaded onto...ity R ec ov er y #1 5 - E xte rn al Af fa irs #6 - Ma ss C ar e, E me rg en cy A ss ist an ce , Ho us ing , a nd H um an S er vic es #7...of US military forces. Intermodal capacity includes dry cargo ships and crews, equipment, terminal facilities, and intermodal management services

The virtual infinite capacitor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yona, Guy; Weiss, George

2017-01-01

We define the virtual infinite capacitor (VIC) as a nonlinear capacitor that has the property that for an interval of the charge Q (the operating range), the voltage V remains constant. We propose a lossless approximate realisation for the VIC as a simple circuit with two controllers: a voltage controller acts fast to maintain the desired terminal voltage, while a charge controller acts more slowly and maintains the charge Q in the desired operating range by influencing the incoming current. The VIC is useful as a filter capacitor for various applications, for example, power factor compensators (PFC), as we describe. In spite of using small capacitors, the VIC can replace a very large capacitor in applications that do not require substantial energy storage. We give simulation results for a PFC working in critical conduction mode with a VIC for output voltage filtering.

Language-in-Education Policies, Immigration and Social Cohesion in Catalonia: The Case of Vic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edwards, Catrin Wyn

2016-01-01

This paper analyses the language-in-education policies implemented to integrate international immigrants into the Catalan language community in Vic, Catalonia. It focuses on the Catalan Government's "Languages and Social Cohesion Plan" (LIC) plan, Vic city council's local education plans, which were adopted as part of LIC plan, and the…

Engineering super mycovirus donor strains of chestnut blight fungus by systematic disruption of multilocus vic genes.

PubMed

Zhang, Dong-Xiu; Nuss, Donald L

2016-02-23

Transmission of mycoviruses that attenuate virulence (hypovirulence) of pathogenic fungi is restricted by allorecognition systems operating in their fungal hosts. We report the use of systematic molecular gene disruption and classical genetics for engineering fungal hosts with superior virus transmission capabilities. Four of five diallelic virus-restricting allorecognition [vegetative incompatibility (vic)] loci were disrupted in the chestnut blight fungus Cryphonectria parasitica using an adapted Cre-loxP recombination system that allowed excision and recycling of selectable marker genes (SMGs). SMG-free, quadruple vic mutant strains representing both allelic backgrounds of the remaining vic locus were then produced through mating. In combination, these super donor strains were able to transmit hypoviruses to strains that were heteroallelic at one or all of the virus-restricting vic loci. These results demonstrate the feasibility of modulating allorecognition to engineer pathogenic fungi for more efficient transmission of virulence-attenuating mycoviruses and enhanced biological control potential.

Low Cost Science Teaching Equipment for Visually Impaired Children

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, H. O.; Singh, Rakshpal

1998-05-01

A low cost null detector an electronic thermometer and a colorimeter have been designed and developed for enabling visually impaired children (VIC) to do experiments in science that normally are accessible only to sighted children. The instruments are based on audio null detection in a balanced bridge and use a themistor for sensing the temperature and an LDR for color change. The analog output can be tactually read by VIC. The equipment has been tested for suitability with VIC. The approach followed in developing these equipment would be generally appropriate to a wide variety of science equipment for VIC by incorporating suitable sensors.

Is the Pearl River basin, China, drying or wetting? Seasonal variations, causes and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Li, Jianfeng; Gu, Xihui; Shi, Peijun

2018-07-01

Soil moisture plays crucial roles in the hydrological cycle and is also a critical link between land surface and atmosphere. The Pearl River basin (PRb) is climatically subtropical and tropical and is highly sensitive to climate changes. In this study, seasonal soil moisture changes across the PRb were analyzed using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model forced by the gridded 0.5° × 0.5° climatic observations. Seasonal changes of soil moisture in both space and time were investigated using the Mann-Kendall trend test method. Potential influencing factors behind seasonal soil moisture changes such as precipitation and temperature were identified using the Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) technique. The results indicated that: (1) VIC model performs well in describing changing properties of soil moisture across the PRb; (2) Distinctly different seasonal features of soil moisture can be observed. Soil moisture in spring decreased from east to west parts of the PRb. In summer however, soil moisture was higher in east and west parts but was lower in central parts of the PRb; (3) A significant drying trend was identified over the PRb in autumn, while no significant drying trends can be detected in other seasons; (4) The increase/decrease in precipitation can generally explain the wetting/drying tendency of soil moisture. However, warming temperature contributed significantly to the drying trends and these drying trends were particularly evident during autumn and winter; (5) Significant decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature combined to trigger substantially decreasing soil moisture in autumn. In winter, warming temperature is the major reason behind decreased soil moisture although precipitation is in slightly decreasing tendency. Season variations of soil moisture and related implications for hydro-meteorological processes in the subtropical and tropical river basins over the globe should arouse considerable human concerns.

Basin-Scale Assessment of the Land Surface Water Budget in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Operational and Research NLDAS-2 Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xia, Youlong; Cosgrove, Brian A.; Mitchell, Kenneth E.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Ek, Michael B.; Brewer, Michael; Mocko, David; Kumar, Sujay V.; Wei, Helin; Meng, Jesse;

Heterogeneous Heterobimetallic Catalysis Enabling Expeditious Access to CF3-Containing vic-Amino Alcohols.

PubMed

Karasawa, Tomoya; Kumagai, Naoya; Shibasaki, Masakatsu

2018-01-05

A highly anti-selective catalytic asymmetric nitroaldol reaction of trifluoromethyl ketones based on Nd/Na and Pr/Na heterobimetallic catalysts was developed. These catalysts function as heterogeneous catalysts to engage nitroethane and a range of trifluoromethyl ketones in a stereoselective assembly to afford CF 3 -appended vic-nitroalkanols that could be readily converted to enantioenriched vic-amino alcohols, which are privileged structural motifs in medicinal chemistry.

On the development of a VIPARnd radiotherapy 3D polymer gel dosimeter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozicki, Marek; Jaszczak, Malwina; Maras, Piotr; Dudek, Mariusz; Cłapa, Marian

2017-02-01

This work presents an improvement of the VIPARnd (‘nd’ stands for ‘normoxic, double’, or VIP) polymer gel dosimeter. The gel composition was altered by increasing the concentration of the monomeric components, N-vinylpyrrolidone (NVP) and N,N‧-methylenebisacrylamide (MBA), in co-solvent solutions. The optimal composition (VIPARCT, where ‘CT’ stands for computed tomography, or VIC) comprised: 17% NVP, 8% MBA, 12% t-BuOH, 7.5% gelatine, 0.007% ascorbic acid, 0.0008% CuSO4  ×  5H2O and 0.02% hydroquinone. The following characteristics of VIC were achieved: (i) linear dose range of 0.9_30 Gy, (ii) saturation for radiation doses of over 50 Gy, (iii) threshold dose of about 0.5 Gy, (iv) dose sensitivity of 0.171 Gy-1 s-1, which is roughly 2.2 times higher than that of VIP (for nuclear magnetic resonance measurements). It was also found that VIC is dose- rate-independent, and its dose response does not alter if the radiation source is changed from electrons to photons for external beam radiotherapy. The gel responded similarly to irradiation with small changes in radiation energy but was sensitive to larger energy changes. The VIC gel retained temporal stability from 20 h until at least 10 d after irradiation, whereas spatial stability was retained from 20 h until at least 6 d after irradiation. The scheme adopted for VIC manufacturing yields repeatable gels in terms of radiation dose response. The VIC was also shown to perform better than VIP using x-ray computed tomography as a readout method; the dose sensitivity of VIC (0.397 HU Gy-1) was 1.5 times higher than that of VIP. Also, the dose resolution of VIC was better than that of VIP in the whole dose range examined.

A Multi-Tiered Approach for Building Capacity in Hydrologic Modeling for Water Resource Management in Developing Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markert, K. N.; Limaye, A. S.; Rushi, B. R.; Adams, E. C.; Anderson, E.; Ellenburg, W. L.; Mithieu, F.; Griffin, R.

2017-12-01

Water resource management is the process by which governments, businesses and/or individuals reach and implement decisions that are intended to address the future quantity and/or quality of water for societal benefit. The implementation of water resource management typically requires the understanding of the quantity and/or timing of a variety of hydrologic variables (e.g. discharge, soil moisture and evapotranspiration). Often times these variables for management are simulated using hydrologic models particularly in data sparse regions. However, there are several large barriers to entry in learning how to use models, applying best practices during the modeling process, and selecting and understanding the most appropriate model for diverse applications. This presentation focuses on a multi-tiered approach to bring the state-of-the-art hydrologic modeling capabilities and methods to developing regions through the SERVIR program, a joint NASA and USAID initiative that builds capacity of regional partners and their end users on the use of Earth observations for environmental decision making. The first tier is a series of trainings on the use of multiple hydrologic models, including the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and Ensemble Framework For Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5), which focus on model concepts and steps to successfully implement the models. We present a case study for this in a pilot area, the Nyando Basin in Kenya. The second tier is focused on building a community of practice on applied hydrology modeling aimed at creating a support network for hydrologists in SERVIR regions and promoting best practices. The third tier is a hydrologic inter-comparison project under development in the SERVIR regions. The objective of this step is to understand model performance under specific decision-making scenarios, and to share knowledge among hydrologists in SERVIR regions. The results of these efforts include computer programs, training materials, and new scientific understanding, all of which are shared in an open and collaborative environment for transparency and subsequent capacity building in SERVIR regions and beyond. The outcome of this work is increased awareness and capacity on the use of hydrologic models in developing regions to support water resource management and water security.

Results of neurolysis in established upper limb Volkmann's ischemic contracture

PubMed Central

Meena, Dinesh K; Thalanki, Srikiran; Patni, Poornima; Meena, Ram Khiladi; Bairawa, Dinesh; Bhatia, Chirag

2016-01-01

Background: Treatment of established cases of Volkmann's ischemic contracture (VIC) of upper limb is very tedious. Since the period of Volkmann, various experimental works are being performed for its treatment, but none are effective. Disabilities from nerve palsy and hand muscle paralysis are more problematic than any other deformity in VIC. To solve these problems, we conducted a study to see the result of neurolysis of median and ulnar nerve and their subcutaneous placement in established cases of VIC. Materials and Methods: Twelve cases of established VIC operated between July 2007 and August 2010 with complete records and followup were included in the study. VIC of lower limb and contracture of nonischemic etiology were excluded from the study. Their evaluation was done by the British Medical Research Council grading system for sensory and motor recovery. Followup was done for an average period of 24.3 months (range 15-30 months) (the average age was 8.3 years). Results: To study the results, we divided the cases into two series. One group consisted of cases which were operated within 6 months from onset of VIC. The second group consisted of cases which were operated after 6 months from onset of VIC. Our results revealed that there was no statistically significant difference between the two groups operated, though both had significant improvement in motor and sensory recovery in both median and ulnar nerve distribution. Conclusions: Neurolysis of the nerves definitely improved the outcome for motor and sensory components of median and ulnar nerves but the timing of the surgery did not play a role in the outcome contrary to the clinical assumption. This study can serve as a template and further such studies could help us find the answer to a long standing issue. PMID:27904214

Denosumab could be a Potential Inhibitor of Valvular Interstitial Cells Calcification in vitro.

PubMed

Lerman, Daniel Alejandro; Prasad, Sai; Alotti, Nasri

2016-01-03

Denosumab is a fully human monoclonal antibody and novel antiresorptive agent that works by binding receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-β ligand (RANKL) and inhibiting the signaling cascade that causes osteoclast maturation, activity, and survival. We aimed to elucidate the effect of Denosumab in the process of spontaneous and induced calcification in an in vitro porcine valvular interstitial cells (VICs) model. VICs were extracted from fresh porcine hearts by serial collagenase digestion. Spontaneous calcification of VICs was increased in vitro by adding Na 3 PO 4 (3 mM, pH 7.4) and different concentrations (0.1, 1 and 10 ng/ml) of transforming growth factor beta (TGFß). The degree of calcification before and after treatment with Denosumab was estimated by Alizarin Red staining for calcium deposition, and Sirius Red staining for collagen. Colorimetric techniques were used to determine calcium and collagen deposition quantitatively. For statistical analysis we used SPSS and Microsoft Office Excel 2013. Porcine aortic VICs in vitro were induced to calcify by the addition of either 3 mM Na 3 PO 4 , showing a 5.2 fold increase by 14 days (P<0.001), or 3 mM Na 3 PO 4 + 10 ng/ml of TGFβ, showing a 7 fold increase by Day 14 (P<0.001). Denosumab inhibited induced calcification by 3 mM Na 3 PO 4 and 3 mM Na 3 PO 4 with the addition of TGFß at either 0.1, 1 or 10 ng/ml to basal levels only at a concentration of 50 μg/ml (P<0.001). This study has proved that Denosumab could be a potential inhibitor of the calcification of VICs in vitro . A fuller understanding of the actions of Denosumab may identify a novel therapeutic strategy for clinical intervention against aortic valve calcification and aortic stenosis.

Colorado River basin sensitivity to disturbance impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, K. E.; Urrego-Blanco, J. R.; Jonko, A. K.; Vano, J. A.; Newman, A. J.; Bohn, T. J.; Middleton, R. S.

2017-12-01

The Colorado River basin is an important river for the food-energy-water nexus in the United States and is projected to change under future scenarios of increased CO2emissions and warming. Streamflow estimates to consider climate impacts occurring as a result of this warming are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain inputs—to fully understand impacts on streamflow sensitivity analysis can help determine how models respond under changing disturbances such as climate and vegetation. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in VIC. Additionally, we examine sensitivities of basin-wide model simulations using an approach that incorporates changes in temperature, precipitation and vegetation to consider impact responses for snow-dominated headwater catchments, low elevation arid basins, and for the upper and lower river basins. We find that for the Colorado River basin, snow-dominated regions are more sensitive to uncertainties. New parameter sensitivities identified include runoff/evapotranspiration sensitivity to albedo, while changes in snow water equivalent are sensitive to canopy fraction and Leaf Area Index (LAI). Basin-wide streamflow sensitivities to precipitation, temperature and vegetation are variable seasonally and also between sub-basins; with the largest sensitivities for smaller, snow-driven headwater systems where forests are dense. For a major headwater basin, a 1ºC of warming equaled a 30% loss of forest cover, while a 10% precipitation loss equaled a 90% forest cover decline. Scenarios utilizing multiple disturbances led to unexpected results where changes could either magnify or diminish extremes, such as low and peak flows and streamflow timing, dependent on the strength and direction of the forcing. These results indicate the importance of understanding model sensitivities under disturbance impacts to manage these shifts; plan for future water resource changes and determine how the impacts will affect the sustainability and adaptability of food-energy-water systems.

Regional Climate and Streamflow Projections in North America Under IPCC CMIP5 Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, H. I.; Castro, C. L.; Troch, P. A. A.; Mukherjee, R.

2014-12-01

The Colorado River system is the predominant source of water supply for the Southwest U.S. and is already fully allocated, making the region's environmental and economic health particularly sensitive to annual and multi-year streamflow variability. Observed streamflow declines in the Colorado Basin in recent years are likely due to synergistic combination of anthropogenic global warming and natural climate variability, which are creating an overall warmer and more extreme climate. IPCC assessment reports have projected warmer and drier conditions in arid to semi-arid regions (e.g. Solomon et al. 2007). The NAM-related precipitation contributes to substantial Colorado streamflows. Recent climate change studies for the Southwest U.S. region project a dire future, with chronic drought, and substantially reduced Colorado River flows. These regional effects reflect the general observation that climate is being more extreme globally, with areas climatologically favored to be wet getting wetter and areas favored to be dry getting drier (Wang et al. 2012). Multi-scale downscaling modeling experiments are designed using recent IPCC AR5 global climate projections, which incorporate regional climate and hydrologic modeling components. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has been selected as the main regional modeling tool; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) will be used to generate streamflow projections for the Colorado River Basin. The WRF domain is set up to follow the CORDEX-North America guideline with 25km grid spacing, and VIC model is individually calibrated for upper and lower Colorado River basins in 1/8° resolution. The multi-scale climate and hydrology study aims to characterize how the combination of climate change and natural climate variability is changing cool and warm season precipitation. Further, to preserve the downscaled RCM sensitivity and maintain a reasonable climatology mean based on observed record, a new bias correction technique is applied when using the RCM climatology to the streamflow model. Of specific interest is how major droughts associated with La Niña-like conditions may worsen in the future, as these are the times when the Colorado River system is most critically stressed and would define the "worst case" scenario for water resource planning.

Crawling Aid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

The Institute for the Achievement of Human Potential developed a device known as the Vehicle for Initial Crawling (VIC); the acronym is a tribute to the crawler's inventor, Hubert "Vic" Vykukal; is an effective crawling aid. The VIC is used by brain injured children who are unable to crawl due to the problems of weight-bearing and friction, caused by gravity. It is a rounded plywood frame large enough to support the child's torso, leaving arms and legs free to move. On its underside are three aluminum discs through which air is pumped to create an air-bearing surface that has less friction than a film of oil. Upper side contains the connection to the air supply and a pair of straps which restrain the child and cause the device to move with him. VIC is used with the intent to recreate the normal neurological connection between brain and muscles. Over repetitive use of the device the child develops his arm and leg muscles as well as coordination. Children are given alternating therapy, with and without the VIC until eventually the device is no longer needed.

Evaluating runoff simulations from the Community Land Model 4.0 using observations from flux towers and a mountainous watershed

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Hongyi; Huang, Maoyi; Wigmosta, Mark S.

2011-12-24

Previous studies using the Community Land Model (CLM) focused on simulating landatmosphere interactions and water balance at continental to global scales, with limited attention paid to its capability for hydrologic simulations at watershed or regional scales. This study evaluates the performance of CLM 4.0 (CLM4) for hydrologic simulations, and explores possible directions of improvement. Specifically, it is found that CLM4 tends to produce unrealistically large temporal variation of runoff for applications at a mountainous catchment in the Northwest United States where subsurface runoff is dominant, as well as at a few flux tower sites. We show that runoff simulations frommore » CLM4 can be improved by: (1) increasing spatial resolution of the land surface representations; (2) calibrating parameter values; (3) replacing the subsurface formulation with a more general nonlinear function; (4) implementing the runoff generation schemes from the Variability Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. This study also highlights the importance of evaluating both the energy and water fluxes application of land surface models across multiple scales.« less

Short-term climate change impacts on Mara basin hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaria, E. M.; Roy, T.; Valdés, J. B.; Lyon, B.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Durcik, M.; Gupta, H.

2017-12-01

The predictability of climate diminishes significantly at shorter time scales (e.g. decadal). Both natural variability as well as sampling variability of climate can obscure or enhance climate change signals in these shorter scales. Therefore, in order to assess the impacts of climate change on basin hydrology, it is important to design climate projections with exhaustive climate scenarios. In this study, we first create seasonal climate scenarios by combining (1) synthetic precipitation projections generated from a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model using the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (UEA-CRU) data with (2) seasonal trends calculated from 31 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP). The seasonal climate projections are then disaggregated to daily level using the Agricultural Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (AgMERRA) data. The daily climate data are then bias-corrected and used as forcings to the land-surface model, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), to generate different hydrological projections for the Mara River basin in East Africa, which are then evaluated to study the hydrologic changes in the basin in the next three decades (2020-2050).

Effect of heteroscedasticity treatment in residual error models on model calibration and prediction uncertainty estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Ruochen; Yuan, Huiling; Liu, Xiaoli

2017-11-01

The heteroscedasticity treatment in residual error models directly impacts the model calibration and prediction uncertainty estimation. This study compares three methods to deal with the heteroscedasticity, including the explicit linear modeling (LM) method and nonlinear modeling (NL) method using hyperbolic tangent function, as well as the implicit Box-Cox transformation (BC). Then a combined approach (CA) combining the advantages of both LM and BC methods has been proposed. In conjunction with the first order autoregressive model and the skew exponential power (SEP) distribution, four residual error models are generated, namely LM-SEP, NL-SEP, BC-SEP and CA-SEP, and their corresponding likelihood functions are applied to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model over the Huaihe River basin, China. Results show that the LM-SEP yields the poorest streamflow predictions with the widest uncertainty band and unrealistic negative flows. The NL and BC methods can better deal with the heteroscedasticity and hence their corresponding predictive performances are improved, yet the negative flows cannot be avoided. The CA-SEP produces the most accurate predictions with the highest reliability and effectively avoids the negative flows, because the CA approach is capable of addressing the complicated heteroscedasticity over the study basin.

Hydrocentric view of Agro-ecosystem Resiliency to Extreme Hydrometeorological and Climate Events in the High Plains, US.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Arriola, Francisco; Sharma, Ashutosh; Werner, Katherine; Chacon, Juan-Carlos; Corzo, Gerald; Goyal, Manish-Kumar

2017-04-01

An increasing incidence of Hydrometeorological and Climate Extreme Events (EHCEs) is challenging food, water, and ecosystem services security at local to global contexts. This study aims to understand how a large-scale representation of agroecosystems and ecosystems respond to EHCE in the Northern Highplains, US. To track such responses the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) Land Surface Hydrology model was used and two experiments were implemented. The first experiment uses the LAI MODIS15A2 product to capture dynamic responses of vegetation with a time span from 2000 to 2013. The second experiment used a climatological fixed seasonal cycle calculated as the average from the 2000-2013 dynamic MODIS15A2 product to isolate vegetation from soil physical responses. Based on the analyses of multiple hydrological variables and state variables and high-level organization of agroecosystems and ecosystems, we evidence how the influence of droughts and anomalously wet conditions affect hydrological resilience at large scale.

The Streptococcus mutans Serine/Threonine Kinase, PknB, Regulates Competence Development, Bacteriocin Production, and Cell Wall Metabolism ▿

PubMed Central

Banu, Liliana Danusia; Conrads, Georg; Rehrauer, Hubert; Hussain, Haitham; Allan, Elaine; van der Ploeg, Jan R.

2010-01-01

Bacteria can detect, transmit, and react to signals from the outside world by using two-component systems (TCS) and serine-threonine kinases and phosphatases. Streptococcus mutans contains one serine-threonine kinase, encoded by pknB. A gene encoding a serine-threonine phosphatase, pppL, is located upstream of pknB. In this study, the phenotypes of pknB and pppL single mutants and a pknB pppL double mutant were characterized. All mutants exhibited a reduction in genetic transformability and biofilm formation, showed abnormal cell shapes, grew slower than the wild-type strain in several complex media, and exhibited reduced acid tolerance. The mutants had reduced cariogenic capacity but no significant defects in colonization in a rat caries model. Whole-genome transcriptome analysis revealed that a pknB mutant showed reduced expression of genes involved in bacteriocin production and genetic competence. Among the genes that were differentially regulated in the pknB mutant, several were likely to be involved in cell wall metabolism. One such gene, SMU.2146c, and two genes encoding bacteriocins were shown to also be downregulated in a vicK mutant, which encodes a sensor kinase involved in the response to oxidative stress. Collectively, the results lead us to speculate that PknB may modulate the activity of the two-component signal transduction systems VicKR and ComDE. Real-time reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) showed that genes downregulated in the pknB mutant were upregulated in the pppL mutant, indicating that PppL serves to counteract PknB. PMID:20231406

The Streptococcus mutans serine/threonine kinase, PknB, regulates competence development, bacteriocin production, and cell wall metabolism.

PubMed

Banu, Liliana Danusia; Conrads, Georg; Rehrauer, Hubert; Hussain, Haitham; Allan, Elaine; van der Ploeg, Jan R

2010-05-01

Bacteria can detect, transmit, and react to signals from the outside world by using two-component systems (TCS) and serine-threonine kinases and phosphatases. Streptococcus mutans contains one serine-threonine kinase, encoded by pknB. A gene encoding a serine-threonine phosphatase, pppL, is located upstream of pknB. In this study, the phenotypes of pknB and pppL single mutants and a pknB pppL double mutant were characterized. All mutants exhibited a reduction in genetic transformability and biofilm formation, showed abnormal cell shapes, grew slower than the wild-type strain in several complex media, and exhibited reduced acid tolerance. The mutants had reduced cariogenic capacity but no significant defects in colonization in a rat caries model. Whole-genome transcriptome analysis revealed that a pknB mutant showed reduced expression of genes involved in bacteriocin production and genetic competence. Among the genes that were differentially regulated in the pknB mutant, several were likely to be involved in cell wall metabolism. One such gene, SMU.2146c, and two genes encoding bacteriocins were shown to also be downregulated in a vicK mutant, which encodes a sensor kinase involved in the response to oxidative stress. Collectively, the results lead us to speculate that PknB may modulate the activity of the two-component signal transduction systems VicKR and ComDE. Real-time reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) showed that genes downregulated in the pknB mutant were upregulated in the pppL mutant, indicating that PppL serves to counteract PknB.

Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Hidalgo, H.G.

2011-01-01

California's mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state-in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change-is "how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics in California?" To help address this, we simulate floods on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the state's primary catchment, based on downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). These climate projections are fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, and the VIC-simulated streamflows and hydrologic conditions, from historical and from projected climate change runs, allow us to evaluate possible changes in annual maximum 3-day flood magnitudes and frequencies of floods. By the end of the 21st Century, all projections yield larger-than-historical floods, for both the Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and for the Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN). The increases in flood magnitude are statistically significant (at p <= 0. 01) for all the three GCMs in the period 2051-2099. The frequency of flood events above selected historical thresholds also increases under projections from CNRM CM3 and NCAR PCM1 climate models, while under the third scenario, GFDL CM2. 1, frequencies remain constant or decline slightly, owing to an overall drying trend. These increases appear to derive jointly from increases in heavy precipitation amount, storm frequencies, and days with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow. Increases in antecedent winter soil moisture also play a role in some areas. Thus, a complex, as-yet unpredictable interplay of several different climatic influences threatens to cause increased flood hazards in California's complex western Sierra landscapes. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

How far downstream do dams impact streamflow?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troy, T.

2017-12-01

Water infrastructure can be a double-edged sword. For example, dams can provide significant flood protection and stable water supplies, but they negatively impact river ecosystems. As the United States enters an era of dam decommissioning instead of dam building, it raises the question of how far downstream dams provide protection against flood peaks and sustaining environmental flows. This study uses USGS streamflow observations, the National Inventory of Dams, and VIC-modeled streamflow as a proxy for naturalized streamflow to evaluate the scale at which dams impact a variety of hydrologic signatures such as flood return period flows, streamflow variability, and low flows. Results over the Delaware River show that the impact of dams quickly dissipates as one moves downstream, but this is due to the basin's characteristics. This analysis is performed over the contiguous United States, quantifying the length scale of impact as a function of dam capacity, position on the river network, and the hydroclimatology.

Potential impact of climate change to the future streamflow of Yellow River Basin based on CMIP5 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiaoli; Zheng, Weifei; Ren, Liliang; Zhang, Mengru; Wang, Yuqian; Liu, Yi; Yuan, Fei; Jiang, Shanhu

2018-02-01

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is the largest river basin in northern China, which has suffering water scarcity and drought hazard for many years. Therefore, assessments the potential impacts of climate change on the future streamflow in this basin is very important for local policy and planning on food security. In this study, based on the observations of 101 meteorological stations in YRB, equidistant CDF matching (EDCDFm) statistical downscaling approach was applied to eight climate models under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution was developed based on downscaled fields for simulating streamflow in the future period over YRB. The results show that with the global warming trend, the annual streamflow will reduced about 10 % during the period of 2021-2050, compared to the base period of 1961-1990 in YRB. There should be suitable water resources planning to meet the demands of growing populations and future climate changing in this region.

78. GUN RILL STATION (VIC. 210TH STREET) GENERAL VIEW SOUTH ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

78. GUN RILL STATION (VIC. 210TH STREET) GENERAL VIEW SOUTH ON NORTHBOUND TRACK SHOWING SIGNAL & CONTROL. - Interborough Rapid Transit Company, Third Avenue Elevated Line, Borough of the Bronx, New York County, NY

Manipulation of valve composition to elucidate the role of collagen in aortic valve calcification

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Extracellular matrix (ECM) disarray is found in calcific aortic valvular disease (CAVD), yet much remains to be learned about the role of individual ECM components in valvular interstitial cell (VIC) function and dysfunction. Previous clinical analyses have shown that calcification is associated with decreased collagen content, while previous in vitro work has suggested that the presence of collagen attenuates the responsiveness of VICs to pro-calcific stimuli. The current study uses whole leaflet cultures to examine the contributions of endogenous collagen in regulating the phenotype and calcification of VICs. Methods A “top-down” approach was used to characterize changes in VIC phenotype in response to collagen alterations in the native 3D environment. Collagen-deficient leaflets were created via enzymatic treatment and cultured statically for six days in vitro. After culture, leaflets were harvested for analysis of DNA, proliferation, apoptosis, ECM composition, calcification, and gene/protein expression. Results In general, disruption of collagen was associated with increased expression of disease markers by VICs in whole organ leaflet culture. Compared to intact control leaflets, collagen-deficient leaflets demonstrated increased VIC proliferation and apoptosis, increased expression of disease-related markers such as alpha-smooth muscle actin, alkaline phosphatase, and osteocalcin, and an increase in calcification as evidenced by positive von Kossa staining. Conclusions These results indicate that disruption of the endogenous collagen structure in aortic valves is sufficient to stimulate pathological consequences in valve leaflet cultures, thereby highlighting the importance of collagen and the valve extracellular matrix in general in maintaining homeostasis of the valve phenotype. PMID:24581344

Neural signals of vicarious extinction learning

PubMed Central

Haaker, Jan; Selbing, Ida; Olsson, Andreas

2016-01-01

Social transmission of both threat and safety is ubiquitous, but little is known about the neural circuitry underlying vicarious safety learning. This is surprising given that these processes are critical to flexibly adapt to a changeable environment. To address how the expression of previously learned fears can be modified by the transmission of social information, two conditioned stimuli (CS + s) were paired with shock and the third was not. During extinction, we held constant the amount of direct, non-reinforced, exposure to the CSs (i.e. direct extinction), and critically varied whether another individual—acting as a demonstrator—experienced safety (CS + vic safety) or aversive reinforcement (CS + vic reinf). During extinction, ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) responses to the CS + vic reinf increased but decreased to the CS + vic safety. This pattern of vmPFC activity was reversed during a subsequent fear reinstatement test, suggesting a temporal shift in the involvement of the vmPFC. Moreover, only the CS + vic reinf association recovered. Our data suggest that vicarious extinction prevents the return of conditioned fear responses, and that this efficacy is reflected by diminished vmPFC involvement during extinction learning. The present findings may have important implications for understanding how social information influences the persistence of fear memories in individuals suffering from emotional disorders. PMID:27278792

Including the dynamic relationship between climatic variables and leaf area index in a hydrological model to improve streamflow prediction under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesemma, Z. K.; Wei, Y.; Peel, M. C.; Western, A. W.

2015-06-01

Anthropogenic climate change is projected to enrich the atmosphere with carbon dioxide, change vegetation dynamics and influence the availability of water at the catchment scale. This study combines a nonlinear model for estimating changes in leaf area index (LAI) due to climatic fluctuations with the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model to improve catchment streamflow prediction under a changing climate. The combined model was applied to 13 gauged sub-catchments with different land cover types (crop, pasture and tree) in the Goulburn-Broken catchment, Australia, for the "Millennium Drought" (1997-2009) relative to the period 1983-1995, and for two future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) and two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5) which were compared with the baseline historical period of 1981-2010. This region was projected to be warmer and mostly drier in the future as predicted by 38 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) runs from 15 global climate models (GCMs) and for two emission scenarios. The results showed that during the Millennium Drought there was about a 29.7-66.3 % reduction in mean annual runoff due to reduced precipitation and increased temperature. When drought-induced changes in LAI were included, smaller reductions in mean annual runoff of between 29.3 and 61.4 % were predicted. The proportional increase in runoff due to modeling LAI was 1.3-10.2 % relative to not including LAI. For projected climate change under the RCP4.5 emission scenario, ignoring the LAI response to changing climate could lead to a further reduction in mean annual runoff of between 2.3 and 27.7 % in the near-term (2021-2050) and 2.3 to 23.1 % later in the century (2071-2100) relative to modeling the dynamic response of LAI to precipitation and temperature changes. Similar results (near-term 2.5-25.9 % and end of century 2.6-24.2 %) were found for climate change under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Incorporating climate-induced changes in LAI in the VIC model reduced the projected declines in streamflow and confirms the importance of including the effects of changes in LAI in future projections of streamflow.

Landslide Hazard Probability Derived from Inherent and Dynamic Determinants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, Ronda; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan

2016-04-01

Landslide hazard research has typically been conducted independently from hydroclimate research. We unify these two lines of research to provide regional scale landslide hazard information for risk assessments and resource management decision-making. Our approach combines an empirical inherent landslide probability with a numerical dynamic probability, generated by combining routed recharge from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale land surface hydrologic model with a finer resolution probabilistic slope stability model run in a Monte Carlo simulation. Landslide hazard mapping is advanced by adjusting the dynamic model of stability with an empirically-based scalar representing the inherent stability of the landscape, creating a probabilistic quantitative measure of geohazard prediction at a 30-m resolution. Climatology, soil, and topography control the dynamic nature of hillslope stability and the empirical information further improves the discriminating ability of the integrated model. This work will aid resource management decision-making in current and future landscape and climatic conditions. The approach is applied as a case study in North Cascade National Park Complex, a rugged terrain with nearly 2,700 m (9,000 ft) of vertical relief, covering 2757 sq km (1064 sq mi) in northern Washington State, U.S.A.

Regulation of a Viral Proteinase by a Peptide and DNA in One-dimensional Space

PubMed Central

Blainey, Paul C.; Graziano, Vito; Pérez-Berná, Ana J.; McGrath, William J.; Flint, S. Jane; San Martín, Carmen; Xie, X. Sunney; Mangel, Walter F.

2013-01-01

Precursor proteins used in the assembly of adenovirus virions must be processed by the virally encoded adenovirus proteinase (AVP) before the virus particle becomes infectious. An activated adenovirus proteinase, the AVP-pVIc complex, was shown to slide along viral DNA with an extremely fast one-dimensional diffusion constant, 21.0 ± 1.9 × 106 bp2/s. In principle, one-dimensional diffusion can provide a means for DNA-bound proteinases to locate and process DNA-bound substrates. Here, we show that this is correct. In vitro, AVP-pVIc complexes processed a purified virion precursor protein in a DNA-dependent reaction; in a quasi in vivo environment, heat-disrupted ts-1 virions, AVP-pVIc complexes processed five different precursor proteins in DNA-dependent reactions. Sliding of AVP-pVIc complexes along DNA illustrates a new biochemical mechanism by which a proteinase can locate its substrates, represents a new paradigm for virion maturation, and reveals a new way of exploiting the surface of DNA. PMID:23043138

Prediction of hydrological responds to climate changes in the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, X.; Ren, L.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, M.; Liu, Y.; Jiang, S.; Yuan, F.

2017-12-01

Climate changes have direct effects on hydrological cycle, with the increasing temperature and seasonal shift of precipitation. Therefore, understanding of how climate change may affect the population and water resources and economic development is critical to the water and food security for China. This study aims to evaluate the potential impacts of future climate changes on water resources of the upper basin of Yangtze River (the area controlled by the Yichang hydrological station) using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model driven by composite observations (1961-2005) and projections of eight CMIP5 models under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from 2006 to 2099. The raw eight CMIP5 models have been downscaled by the equidistant cumulative distribution functions (EDCDF) statistical downscaling approach from 1961 to 2099. The assessment of the performance of model simulated precipitation and temperature were calculated by comparing to the observations during the historical period (1961-2005). For the same variables, eight CMIP5 models for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 downscaled by EDCDF method were generated during the future period (2006-2099). Overall, the VIC model performed well in monthly streamflow simulation, with the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSCE) 0.92 and 0.97 for calibration and validation, respectively. The annual precipitation is projected to increase by 6.3mm and 8.6mm per decade and the annual temperature will increase by 0.22 °C and 0.53°C per decade (2006-2099) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In the future period, The total runoff of the study basins would either remain stable or moderately increase by 2.7% and 22.4% per decade, the evapotranspiration increase by 2mm and 13mm per decade, and the soil moisture will reduce by -0.1% and -7.4% per decade under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The changes of model-simulated soil moisture, runoff, and evapotranspiration suggest that there probably be an increasing risk of drought in the twenty-first century in UYRB and the policy maker and managers need to pay more attention to the adaption actions of implement robust water management in UYRB. Keywords: EDCDF; Bias correction; Climate changes; Water and food security; Upper Yangtze River Basin

How much runoff originates as snow in the western United States and what its future changes tell us?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, D.; Wrzesien, M.; Durand, M. T.; Adam, J. C.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

Snow is a vital hydrologic cycle component in the western United States. The seasonal phase of snowmelt bridges between winter-dominant precipitation and summer-dominant human and ecosystem water demand. Current estimates of the fraction of total annual runoff generated by snowmelt (f_Q,snow) are not based on defensible, systematic analyses. Here, based on hydrological model simulations, we describe a new algorithm that explicitly quantifies the contribution of snow to runoff in the Western U.S. Specifically, the algorithm tracks the fate of the snowmelt runoff in the modeled hydrological fluxes in the soil, surface water, and the atmosphere, and accounts for the exchanges among the three. The hydrological fluxes are simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model using an ensemble of ten general circulation model (GCM) outputs trained by ground observations. We conducted the tracking to the VIC modeling ensemble and reported the mean of the ten tracking results. We computed the historical f_Q,snow with the modeling estimates from 1960 to 2005, and predicted the future f_Q,snow using the modeling estimates from 2006 to 2100 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Our tracking results show that from 1960 to 2005, slightly over one-half of the total runoff in the western United States originated as snowmelt, despite only 37% of the region's total precipitation falling as snow; snowfall is more efficient than rainfall in runoff generation. Snow's importance varies physiographically: snowmelt from the mountains is responsible for over 70% of the total runoff in the West. Snowmelt-derived runoff currently makes up about 2/3 of the inflow to the region's major reservoirs; for Lake Mead and Lake Powell, which are the two largest reservoirs of the nation, snow contributes over 70% of their storage. The contribution of snowmelt to the total runoff will decrease in a warmer climate, by about 1/3 over the West by 2100. Snow will melt earlier and the snowmelt-induced peak flow will shift earlier by 1.5 to up to 4 weeks. Thus, in the context of predicted reductions and earlier shifts of the snow-induced runoff, and the fact that the region's major reservoirs were designed for the historical snow climatology, we argue that substantial impacts on water supply may occur especially in the summer season when water demand peaks.

Intake and transformation to a glycoside of (Z)-3-hexenol from infested neighbors reveals a mode of plant odor reception and defense

PubMed Central

Sugimoto, Koichi; Matsui, Kenji; Iijima, Yoko; Akakabe, Yoshihiko; Muramoto, Shoko; Ozawa, Rika; Uefune, Masayoshi; Sasaki, Ryosuke; Alamgir, Kabir Md.; Akitake, Shota; Nobuke, Tatsunori; Galis, Ivan; Aoki, Koh; Shibata, Daisuke; Takabayashi, Junji

2014-01-01

Plants receive volatile compounds emitted by neighboring plants that are infested by herbivores, and consequently the receiver plants begin to defend against forthcoming herbivory. However, to date, how plants receive volatiles and, consequently, how they fortify their defenses, is largely unknown. In this study, we found that undamaged tomato plants exposed to volatiles emitted by conspecifics infested with common cutworms (exposed plants) became more defensive against the larvae than those exposed to volatiles from uninfested conspecifics (control plants) in a constant airflow system under laboratory conditions. Comprehensive metabolite analyses showed that only the amount of (Z)-3-hexenylvicianoside (HexVic) was higher in exposed than control plants. This compound negatively affected the performance of common cutworms when added to an artificial diet. The aglycon of HexVic, (Z)-3-hexenol, was obtained from neighboring infested plants via the air. The amount of jasmonates (JAs) was not higher in exposed plants, and HexVic biosynthesis was independent of JA signaling. The use of (Z)-3-hexenol from neighboring damaged conspecifics for HexVic biosynthesis in exposed plants was also observed in an experimental field, indicating that (Z)-3-hexenol intake occurred even under fluctuating environmental conditions. Specific use of airborne (Z)-3-hexenol to form HexVic in undamaged tomato plants reveals a previously unidentified mechanism of plant defense. PMID:24778218

Side-Specific Endothelial-Dependent Regulation of Aortic Valve Calcification

PubMed Central

Richards, Jennifer; El-Hamamsy, Ismail; Chen, Si; Sarang, Zubair; Sarathchandra, Padmini; Yacoub, Magdi H.; Chester, Adrian H.; Butcher, Jonathan T.

2014-01-01

Arterial endothelial cells maintain vascular homeostasis and vessel tone in part through the secretion of nitric oxide (NO). In this study, we determined how aortic valve endothelial cells (VEC) regulate aortic valve interstitial cell (VIC) phenotype and matrix calcification through NO. Using an anchored in vitro collagen hydrogel culture system, we demonstrate that three-dimensionally cultured porcine VIC do not calcify in osteogenic medium unless under mechanical stress. Co-culture with porcine VEC, however, significantly attenuated VIC calcification through inhibition of myofibroblastic activation, osteogenic differentiation, and calcium deposition. Incubation with the NO donor DETA-NO inhibited VIC osteogenic differentiation and matrix calcification, whereas incubation with the NO blocker l-NAME augmented calcification even in 3D VIC–VEC co-culture. Aortic VEC, but not VIC, expressed endothelial NO synthase (eNOS) in both porcine and human valves, which was reduced in osteogenic medium. eNOS expression was reduced in calcified human aortic valves in a side-specific manner. Porcine leaflets exposed to the soluble guanylyl cyclase inhibitor ODQ increased osteocalcin and α-smooth muscle actin expression. Finally, side-specific shear stress applied to porcine aortic valve leaflet endothelial surfaces increased cGMP production in VEC. Valve endothelial-derived NO is a natural inhibitor of the early phases of valve calcification and therefore may be an important regulator of valve homeostasis and pathology. PMID:23499458

Multi-scale streamflow variability responses to precipitation over the headwater catchments in southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Jun; Chen, Ji; Wang, Keyi; Sivakumar, Bellie

2017-08-01

This paper examines the multi-scale streamflow variability responses to precipitation over 16 headwater catchments in the Pearl River basin, South China. The long-term daily streamflow data (1952-2000), obtained using a macro-scale hydrological model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and a routing scheme, are studied. Temporal features of streamflow variability at 10 different timescales, ranging from 6 days to 8.4 years, are revealed with the Haar wavelet transform. The principal component analysis (PCA) is performed to categorize the headwater catchments with the coherent modes of multi-scale wavelet spectra. The results indicate that three distinct modes, with different variability distributions at small timescales and seasonal scales, can explain 95% of the streamflow variability. A large majority of the catchments (i.e. 12 out of 16) exhibit consistent mode feature on multi-scale variability throughout three sub-periods (1952-1968, 1969-1984, and 1985-2000). The multi-scale streamflow variability responses to precipitation are identified to be associated with the regional flood and drought tendency over the headwater catchments in southern China.

Comparison of Decadal Water Storage Trends from Global Hydrological Models and GRACE Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z. Z.; Save, H.; Sun, A. Y.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Van Beek, L. P.; Wiese, D. N.; Wada, Y.; Long, D.; Reedy, R. C.; Doll, P. M.; Longuevergne, L.

2017-12-01

Global hydrology is increasingly being evaluated using models; however, the reliability of these global models is not well known. In this study we compared decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from 7 global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, and GLDAS: NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to storage trends from new GRACE satellite mascon solutions (CSR-M and JPL-M). The analysis was conducted over 186 river basins, representing about 60% of the global land area. Modeled total water storage trends agree with those from GRACE-derived trends that are within ±0.5 km3/yr but greatly underestimate large declining and rising trends outside this range. Large declining trends are found mostly in intensively irrigated basins and in some basins in northern latitudes. Rising trends are found in basins with little or no irrigation and are generally related to increasing trends in precipitation. The largest decline is found in the Ganges (-12 km3/yr) and the largest rise in the Amazon (43 km3/yr). Differences between models and GRACE are greatest in large basins (>0.5x106 km2) mostly in humid regions. There is very little agreement in storage trends between models and GRACE and among the models with values of r2 mostly <0.1. Various factors can contribute to discrepancies in water storage trends between models and GRACE, including uncertainties in precipitation, model calibration, storage capacity, and water use in models and uncertainties in GRACE data related to processing, glacier leakage, and glacial isostatic adjustment. The GRACE data indicate that land has a large capacity to store water over decadal timescales that is underrepresented by the models. The storage capacity in the modeled soil and groundwater compartments may be insufficient to accommodate the range in water storage variations shown by GRACE data. The inability of the models to capture the large storage trends indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced changes in water storage may be mostly underestimated. Future GRACE and model studies should try to reduce the various sources of uncertainty in water storage trends and should consider expanding the modeled storage capacity of the soil profiles and their interaction with groundwater.

Beyond the SCS curve number: A new stochastic spatial runoff approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, M. S., Jr.; Parolari, A.; McDonnell, J.; Porporato, A. M.

2015-12-01

The Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method is the standard approach in practice for predicting a storm event runoff response. It is popular because its low parametric complexity and ease of use. However, the SCS-CN method does not describe the spatial variability of runoff and is restricted to certain geographic regions and land use types. Here we present a general theory for extending the SCS-CN method. Our new theory accommodates different event based models derived from alternative rainfall-runoff mechanisms or distributions of watershed variables, which are the basis of different semi-distributed models such as VIC, PDM, and TOPMODEL. We introduce a parsimonious but flexible description where runoff is initiated by a pure threshold, i.e., saturation excess, that is complemented by fill and spill runoff behavior from areas of partial saturation. To facilitate event based runoff prediction, we derive simple equations for the fraction of the runoff source areas, the probability density function (PDF) describing runoff variability, and the corresponding average runoff value (a runoff curve analogous to the SCS-CN). The benefit of the theory is that it unites the SCS-CN method, VIC, PDM, and TOPMODEL as the same model type but with different assumptions for the spatial distribution of variables and the runoff mechanism. The new multiple runoff mechanism description for the SCS-CN enables runoff prediction in geographic regions and site runoff types previously misrepresented by the traditional SCS-CN method. In addition, we show that the VIC, PDM, and TOPMODEL runoff curves may be more suitable than the SCS-CN for different conditions. Lastly, we explore predictions of sediment and nutrient transport by applying the PDF describing runoff variability within our new framework.

Sensitivity of River Runoff in Bhutan to Changes in Precipitation and Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonessa, M. Y.; Nijssen, B.; Dorji, C.; Wangmo, D.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Richey, J. E.

2013-12-01

In the past decades there has been increasing concern about the potential effects of climate change on runoff and water resources all over the world under different conditions. Various studies have indicated that climate change will have an impact on runoff and stream flow. Bhutan is one of the countries in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region which shows more warming than the global average. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, a macroscale hydrological model, was used to assess the hydrology of the country and the potential impacts of climate change on water availability. Precipitation and temperature were perturbed to study the runoff sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes. The VIC model was run at 1/24° latitude-longitude resolution. The modeled mean annual runoff elasticity which measures fractional change in annual runoff divided by fractional change in annual precipitation ranges from 1.08 to 2.16. The elasticity value is lower for higher reference precipitations and vice versa. The runoff sensitivity to temperature represents the percentage change in annual runoff per 1°C change in temperature. Runoff sensitivities are negative and range from -1.36%/°C to -1.70%/°C. Spatially, both greater elasticity and sensitivity occur towards the northern part of the country where elevation is more than 5000 m above sea level. Based on the coupled model inter-comparison project phase five (CMIP5) average model results, both precipitation and temperature are predicted to increase in Bhutan in the 21st century. Annually, P is expected to increase by 0.45 to 8.7% under RCP4.5 emission scenario and 1.95 to 14.26% under RCP8.5 emission. The mean annual temperature increment ranges from +1.1 to +2.6°C under RCP4.5 and +1.2 to +4.5°C under RCP8.5 emission scenario. These changes in precipitation and temperature are expected to result in runoff changes ranging from -1.0 to +14.3% and +2.2 to +23.1% increments under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, respectively, with the increment getting bigger towards the end of the century. Keywords: Climate change; runoff elasticity; runoff sensitivity; Bhutan.

Implications of Climate Change for Glaciated Watersheds in western Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnorbus, M.; Menounos, B.; Schoeneberg (Werner), A. T.; Anslow, F. S.; Jost, G.; Moore, R. D.

2017-12-01

The cryosphere is particularly vulnerable to changes in climate. For many catchments, glaciers provide water to streams, especially during summer and early autumn when seasonal snow packs have been depleted. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gasses will promote further warming in the decades ahead leading to strong mass loss and a continuation of the rapid retreat of alpine glaciers. Understanding how the contribution of glacier runoff may change in future has important implications for a variety of water resources issues ranging from the impacts of higher water temperatures and lower summer flows on aquatic habitat to the effects of seasonal changes in runoff on hydropower generation. Consequently, there is a need to increase understanding of the influence of glacier storage changes on runoff and streamflow in mountainous watersheds. We developed a modeling system that explicitly simulates ice dynamics, glacier mass balance and runoff. The modelling system employs an upgraded version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model (which now includes glacier mass balance) coupled to a glacier dynamics model (UBC Regional Glaciation Model) that will be used to assess potential future hydrologic changes in glaciated drainages throughout western Canada. Our presentation will focus on the application of this new model to simulate climate change effects on inflows for several hydropower reservoirs located in heavily glaciated basins in British Columbia, Canada.

Decriminalisation of abortion performed by qualified health practitioners under the Abortion Law Reform Act 2008 (Vic).

PubMed

Mendelson, Danuta

2012-06-01

In 2008, the Victorian Parliament enacted the Abortion Law Reform Act 2008 (Vic) and amended the Crimes Act 1958 (Vic) to decriminalise terminations of pregnancy while making it a criminal offence for unqualified persons to carry out such procedures. The reform legislation has imposed a civil regulatory regime on the management of abortions, and has stipulated particular statutory duties of care for registered qualified health care practitioners who have conscientious objections to terminations of pregnancy. The background to, and the structure of, this novel statutory regime is examined, with a focus on conscientious objection clauses and liability in the tort of negligence and the tort of breach of statutory duty.

Afforestation may have little effect on hydrological cycle over the Three-North region of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, S.; Xie, X.

2017-12-01

Afforestation or reforestation is generally effective to improve environmental conditions, and it may have substantial impact on hydrological cycle by increasing rainfall interception and transpiration. To combat desertification and to control dust storms, China has implemented a few Large-scale afforestation programs since 1980s, including the world's most ambitious afforestation program, the Three-North Forest Shelterbelt (TNFS) program in the arid and semiarid land areas. This afforestation plan covers about 4 million km2 (> 42%) of the land area of China. Although the TNFS program eased environmental problems in the region to some degree, the consequences of large-scale afforestation on hydrological cycles is still controversial. To identify the impact of the afforestation on hydrological cycle at regional scale, we employed a large-scale hydrological model, i.e., the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and satellite remote sensing data sets, i.e., leaf area index (LAI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Global LAnd Surface satellite (GLASS). The VIC modelling was forced with long-term dynamic LAI and gridded atmospheric data. We focused on the period of 2000-2015 when fewer afforestation activities implemented and the vegetation in steady growth stage in the three-north region. The results show that, despite the spatial heterogeneity, LAI in the growing season exhibits a slight increase across the three-north region, which is the contribution of the vegetation growth due to afforestation program. Evapotranspiration (ET) increased at a rate of 3.93 mm/yr over the whole region from 2000 to 2015. The spatial pattern of ET is consistent with the changes in LAI and precipitation, but this does not mean vegetation growth contributed equally. Based on factor-distinguishing simulations, we found that precipitation change has more significant influence on hydrological cycle than vegetation growth. Therefore, the afforestation practices are influential at small-catchment scale, but at regional scale, they may have little effect on the hydrological cycles. For sustainable water resource management, we should pay special attention on climate change rather than the afforestation efforts.

Hydrological Modeling in the Bull Run Watershed in Support of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijssen, B.; Chiao, T. H.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Vano, J. A.

2016-12-01

Hydrologic models with varying complexities and structures are commonly used to evaluate the impact of climate change on future hydrology. While the uncertainties in future climate projections are well documented, uncertainties in streamflow projections associated with hydrologic model structure and parameter estimation have received less attention. In this study, we implemented and calibrated three hydrologic models (the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC)) for the Bull Run watershed in northern Oregon using consistent data sources and best practice calibration protocols. The project was part of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) project with the Portland Water Bureau (PWB) under the umbrella of the Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA). Ultimately PWB would use the model evaluation to select a model to perform in-house climate change analysis for Bull Run Watershed. This presentation focuses on the experimental design of the comparison project, project findings and the collaboration between the team at the University of Washington and at PWB. After calibration, the three models showed similar capability to reproduce seasonal and inter-annual variations in streamflow, but differed in their ability to capture extreme events. Furthermore, the annual and seasonal hydrologic sensitivities to changes in climate forcings differed among models, potentially attributable to different model representations of snow and vegetation processes.

VIC: A Computer Analysis of Verbal Interaction Category Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kline, John A.; And Others

VIC is a computer program for the analysis of verbal interaction category systems, especially the Flanders interaction analysis system. The observer codes verbal behavior on coding sheets for later machine scoring. A matrix is produced by the program showing the number and percentages of times that a particular cell describes classroom behavior.…

Development of South Australian-Victorian Prostate Cancer Health Outcomes Research Dataset.

PubMed

Ruseckaite, Rasa; Beckmann, Kerri; O'Callaghan, Michael; Roder, David; Moretti, Kim; Zalcberg, John; Millar, Jeremy; Evans, Sue

2016-01-22

Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed and prevalent malignancy reported to Australian cancer registries, with numerous studies from single institutions summarizing patient outcomes at individual hospitals or States. In order to provide an overview of patterns of care of men with prostate cancer across multiple institutions in Australia, a specialized dataset was developed. This dataset, containing amalgamated data from South Australian and Victorian prostate cancer registries, is called the South Australian-Victorian Prostate Cancer Health Outcomes Research Dataset (SA-VIC PCHORD). A total of 13,598 de-identified records of men with prostate cancer diagnosed and consented between 2008 and 2013 in South Australia and Victoria were merged into the SA-VIC PCHORD. SA-VIC PCHORD contains detailed information about socio-demographic, diagnostic and treatment characteristics of patients with prostate cancer in South Australia and Victoria. Data from individual registries are available to researchers and can be accessed under individual data access policies in each State. The SA-VIC PCHORD will be used for numerous studies summarizing trends in diagnostic characteristics, survival and patterns of care in men with prostate cancer in Victoria and South Australia. It is expected that in the future the SA-VIC PCHORD will become a principal component of the recently developed bi-national Australian and New Zealand Prostate Cancer Outcomes Registry to collect and report patterns of care and standardised patient reported outcome measures of men nation-wide in Australia and New Zealand.

The two-component system VicRK regulates functions associated with Streptococcus mutans resistance to complement immunity.

PubMed

Alves, Livia A; Harth-Chu, Erika N; Palma, Thais H; Stipp, Rafael N; Mariano, Flávia S; Höfling, José F; Abranches, Jacqueline; Mattos-Graner, Renata O

2017-10-01

Streptococcus mutans, a dental caries pathogen, can promote systemic infections upon reaching the bloodstream. The two-component system (TCS) VicRK Sm of S. mutans regulates the synthesis of and interaction with sucrose-derived exopolysaccharides (EPS), processes associated with oral and systemic virulence. In this study, we investigated the mechanisms by which VicRK Sm affects S. mutans susceptibility to blood-mediated immunity. Compared with parent strain UA159, the vicK Sm isogenic mutant (UAvic) showed reduced susceptibility to deposition of C3b of complement, low binding to serum immunoglobulin G (IgG), and low frequency of C3b/IgG-mediated opsonophagocytosis by polymorphonuclear cells in a sucrose-independent way (P<.05). Reverse transcriptase quantitative polymerase chain reaction analysis comparing gene expression in UA159 and UAvic revealed that genes encoding putative peptidases of the complement (pepO and smu.399) were upregulated in UAvic in the presence of serum, although genes encoding murein hydrolases (SmaA and Smu.2146c) or metabolic/surface proteins involved in bacterial interactions with host components (enolase, GAPDH) were mostly affected in a serum-independent way. Among vicK Sm -downstream genes (smaA, smu.2146c, lysM, atlA, pepO, smu.399), only pepO and smu.399 were associated with UAvic phenotypes; deletion of both genes in UA159 significantly enhanced levels of C3b deposition and opsonophagocytosis (P<.05). Moreover, consistent with the fibronectin-binding function of PepO orthologues, UAvic showed increased binding to fibronectin. Reduced susceptibility to opsonophagocytosis was insufficient to enhance ex vivo persistence of UAvic in blood, which was associated with growth defects of this mutant under limited nutrient conditions. Our findings revealed that S. mutans employs mechanisms of complement evasion through peptidases, which are controlled by VicRK Sm. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Drought Monitoring and Forecasting Using the Princeton/U Washington National Hydrologic Forecasting System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, E. F.; Yuan, X.; Roundy, J. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Mo, K. C.; Xia, Y.; Ek, M. B.

2011-12-01

Extreme hydrologic events in the form of droughts or floods are a significant source of social and economic damage in many parts of the world. Having sufficient warning of extreme events allows managers to prepare for and reduce the severity of their impacts. A hydrologic forecast system can give seasonal predictions that can be used by mangers to make better decisions; however there is still much uncertainty associated with such a system. Therefore it is important to understand the forecast skill of the system before transitioning to operational usage. Seasonal reforecasts (1982 - 2010) from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (both version 1 (CFS) and version 2 (CFSv2), Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks and the European Seasonal Interannual Prediction (EUROSIP) system, are assessed for forecasting skill in drought prediction across the U.S., both singularly and as a multi-model system The Princeton/U Washington national hydrologic monitoring and forecast system is being implemented at NCEP/EMC via their Climate Test Bed as the experimental hydrological forecast system to support U.S. operational drought prediction. Using our system, the seasonal forecasts are biased corrected, downscaled and used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model to give seasonal forecasts of hydrologic variables with lead times of up to six months. Results are presented for a number of events, with particular focus on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin in the South Eastern United States, which has experienced a number of severe droughts in recent years and is a pilot study basin for the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The performance of the VIC land surface model is evaluated using observational forcing when compared to observed streamflow. The effectiveness of the forecast system to predict streamflow and soil moisture is evaluated when compared with observed streamflow and modeled soil moisture driven by observed atmospheric forcing. The forecast skills from the dynamical seasonal models (CFSv1, CFSv2, EUROSIP) and CPC are also compared with forecasts based on the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method, which uses initial conditions and historical forcings to generate seasonal forecasts. The skill of the system to predict drought, drought recovery and related hydrological conditions such as low-flows is assessed, along with quantified uncertainty.

Vic Goes to Near Space

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merhar, Vida Kariž; Capuder, Rok; Maroševic, Timotej; Artac, Sonja; Mozer, Alenka; Štekovic, Maja

2016-01-01

In the school year 2012-2013 about 50 students (Fig. 1), managed by mentors (teachers from the middle school Gimnazija Vic in Ljubljana, Slovenia) created an atmospheric probe and launched it into an altitude of more than 30 km above Earth's surface. The aim of this "space expedition" was to take pictures of Earth and to measure how air…

Examining controls on peak annual streamflow and floods in the Fraser River Basin of British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curry, Charles L.; Zwiers, Francis W.

2018-04-01

The Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia is one of the largest and most important watersheds in western North America, and home to a rich diversity of biological species and economic assets that depend implicitly upon its extensive riverine habitats. The hydrology of the FRB is dominated by snow accumulation and melt processes, leading to a prominent annual peak streamflow invariably occurring in May-July. Nevertheless, while annual peak daily streamflow (APF) during the spring freshet in the FRB is historically well correlated with basin-averaged, 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE), there are numerous occurrences of anomalously large APF in below- or near-normal SWE years, some of which have resulted in damaging floods in the region. An imperfect understanding of which other climatic factors contribute to these anomalously large APFs hinders robust projections of their magnitude and frequency. We employ the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) process-based hydrological model driven by gridded observations to investigate the key controlling factors of anomalous APF events in the FRB and four of its subbasins that contribute nearly 70 % of the annual flow at Fraser-Hope. The relative influence of a set of predictors characterizing the interannual variability of rainfall, snowfall, snowpack (characterized by the annual maximum value, SWEmax), soil moisture and temperature on simulated APF at Hope (the main outlet of the FRB) and at the subbasin outlets is examined within a regression framework. The influence of large-scale climate modes of variability (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation - ENSO) on APF magnitude is also assessed, and placed in context with these more localized controls. The results indicate that next to SWEmax (univariate Spearman correlation with APF of ρ ^ = 0.64; 0.70 (observations; VIC simulation)), the snowmelt rate (ρ ^ = 0.43 in VIC), the ENSO and PDO indices (ρ ^ = -0.40; -0.41) and (ρ ^ = -0.35; -0.38), respectively, and rate of warming subsequent to the date of SWEmax (ρ ^ = 0.26; 0.38), are the most influential predictors of APF magnitude in the FRB and its subbasins. The identification of these controls on annual peak flows in the region may be of use in understanding seasonal predictions or future projected streamflow changes.

Large ensemble and large-domain hydrologic modeling: Insights from SUMMA applications in the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ou, G.; Nijssen, B.; Nearing, G. S.; Newman, A. J.; Mizukami, N.; Clark, M. P.

2016-12-01

The Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) provides a unifying modeling framework for process-based hydrologic modeling by defining a general set of conservation equations for mass and energy, with the capability to incorporate multiple choices for spatial discretizations and flux parameterizations. In this study, we provide a first demonstration of large-scale hydrologic simulations using SUMMA through an application to the Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the northwestern United States and Canada for a multi-decadal simulation period. The CRB is discretized into 11,723 hydrologic response units (HRUs) according to the United States Geologic Service Geospatial Fabric. The soil parameters are derived from the Natural Resources Conservation Service Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) Database. The land cover parameters are based on the National Land Cover Database from the year 2001 created by the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium. The forcing data, including hourly air pressure, temperature, specific humidity, wind speed, precipitation, shortwave and longwave radiations, are based on Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) and averaged for each HRU. The simulation results are compared to simulations with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). We are particularly interested in SUMMA's capability to mimic model behaviors of the other two models through the selection of appropriate model parameterizations in SUMMA.

Fibroblast growth factor represses Smad-mediated myofibroblast activation in aortic valvular interstitial cells

PubMed Central

Cushing, Melinda C.; Mariner, Peter D.; Liao, Jo-Tsu; Sims, Evan A.; Anseth, Kristi S.

2008-01-01

This study aimed to identify signaling pathways that oppose connective tissue fibrosis in the aortic valve. Using valvular interstitial cells (VICs) isolated from porcine aortic valve leaflets, we show that basic fibroblast growth factor (FGF-2) effectively blocks transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1)-mediated myofibroblast activation. FGF-2 prevents the induction of α-smooth muscle actin (αSMA) expression and the exit of VICs from the cell cycle, both of which are hallmarks of myofibroblast activation. By blocking the activity of the Smad transcription factors that serve as the downstream nuclear effectors of TGF-β1, FGF-2 treatment inhibits fibrosis in VICs. Using an exogenous Smad-responsive transcriptional promoter reporter, we show that Smad activity is repressed by FGF-2, likely an effect of the fact that FGF-2 treatment prevents the nuclear localization of Smads in these cells. This appears to be a direct effect of FGF signaling through mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) cascades as the treatment of VICs with the MAPK/extracellular regulated kinase (MEK) inhibitor U0126 acted to induce fibrosis and blocked the ability of FGF-2 to inhibit TGF-β1 signaling. Furthermore, FGF-2 treatment of VICs blocks the development of pathological contractile and calcifying phenotypes, suggesting that these pathways may be utilized in the engineering of effective treatments for valvular disease.—Cushing, M. C., Mariner, P. D., Liao, J. T., Sims, E. A., Anseth, K. S. Fibroblast growth factor represses Smad-mediated myofibroblast activation in aortic valvular interstitial cells. PMID:18218921

Climate Change Impacts on Stream Temperatures in the Columbia River System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yearsley, J. R.; Crozier, L.

2014-12-01

The Columbia River system, a drainage basin of 668,000 sq. km that includes the Columbia and Snake River rivers, supports a large population of anadromous, cold-water fishes. 13 species of these fishes are listed under the Endangered Species Act and are vulnerable to impacts of climate change. Bioenergetics models for these species have been developed by the federal agencies that operate the Federal Columbia River Power System. These models simulate the impacts on anadromous fishes as they move through the power system both upstream as adults and downstream as juveniles. Water temperature simulations required for input to the bioenergetics models were made for two different segments of the Columbia River system; one being the portions from the Canadian border to Bonneville Dam and the Snake River from Brownlee Dam in Idaho to its confluence and the other, the Salmon River basin in Idaho. Simulations were performed for the period 1928-1998 with the semi-Lagrangian stream temperature model, RBM, for existing conditions and for a two 2040 climate scenarios, a cool, dry condition (ECHO_g model) and a warm, wet condition (MIROC_3.2 model). Natural flows were simulated with the variable infiltration capacity model, VIC, and modified for Columbia River project operations using HYDSIM, a hydro system regulation model that simulates month-to-month operation of the Pacific Northwest hydropower system.

Vic: The Challenges Facing Schools in a Small, Newly Diverse, Catalan City

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simo, Nuria; Telford, Jon

2012-01-01

The arrival over the last 15 years of a substantial number of pupils of immigrant origin has presented Catalan schools with significant challenges. The schools in Vic (70 km north of Barcelona) have been at the forefront of attempts to adjust to this new multicultural reality. This article describes the results of three studies carried out by the…

Development and testing of a snow interceptometer to quantify canopy water storage and interception processes in the rain/snow transition zone of the North Cascades, Washington, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Kael A.; Van Stan, John T.; Dickerson-Lange, Susan E.; Lutz, James A.; Berman, Jeffrey W.; Gersonde, Rolf; Lundquist, Jessica D.

2013-06-01

Tree canopy snow interception is a significant hydrological process, capable of removing up to 60% of snow from the ground snowpack. Our understanding of canopy interception has been limited by our ability to measure whole canopy water storage in an undisturbed forest setting. This study presents a relatively inexpensive technique for directly measuring snow canopy water storage using an interceptometer, adapted from Friesen et al. (2008). The interceptometer is composed of four linear motion position sensors distributed evenly around the tree trunk. We incorporate a trunk laser-mapping installation method for precise sensor placement to reduce signal error due to sensor misalignment. Through calibration techniques, the amount of canopy snow required to produce the measured displacements can be calculated. We demonstrate instrument performance on a western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) for a snow interception event in November 2011. We find a snow capture efficiency of 83 ± 15% of accumulated ground snowfall with a maximum storage capacity of 50 ± 8 mm snow water equivalent (SWE). The observed interception event is compared to simulated interception, represented by the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The model generally underreported interception magnitude by 33% using a leaf area index (LAI) of 5 and 16% using an LAI of 10. The interceptometer captured intrastorm accumulation and melt rates up to 3 and 0.75 mm SWE h-1, respectively, which the model failed to represent. While further implementation and validation is necessary, our preliminary results indicate that forest interception magnitude may be underestimated in maritime areas.

Virtual mission stage I: Implications of a spaceborne surface water mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, E. A.; Alsdorf, D. E.; Bates, P.; Wilson, M. D.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2004-12-01

The interannual and interseasonal variability of the land surface water cycle depend on the distribution of surface water in lakes, wetlands, reservoirs, and river systems; however, measurements of hydrologic variables are sparsely distributed, even in industrialized nations. Moreover, the spatial extent and storage variations of lakes, reservoirs, and wetlands are poorly known. We are developing a virtual mission to demonstrate the feasibility of observing surface water extent and variations from a spaceborne platform. In the first stage of the virtual mission, on which we report here, surface water area and fluxes are emulated using simulation modeling over three continental scale river basins, including the Ohio River, the Amazon River and an Arctic river. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model is used to simulate evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snow accumulation and ablation, and runoff and streamflow over each basin at one-eighth degree resolution. The runoff from this model is routed using a linear transfer model to provide input to a much more detailed flow hydraulics model. The flow hydraulics model then routes runoff through various channel and floodplain morphologies at a 250 m spatial and 20 second temporal resolution over a 100 km by 500 km domain. This information is used to evaluate trade-offs between spatial and temporal resolutions of a hypothetical high resolution spaceborne altimeter by synthetically sampling the resultant model-predicted water surface elevations.

Immunogenicity and safety of a quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine compared with two trivalent inactivated influenza vaccines containing alternate B strains in adults: A phase 3, randomized noninferiority study.

PubMed

Treanor, John T; Albano, Frank R; Sawlwin, Daphne C; Graves Jones, Alison; Airey, Jolanta; Formica, Neil; Matassa, Vince; Leong, Jane

2017-04-04

Vaccination is the most effective means of influenza prevention. Efficacy of trivalent vaccines may be enhanced by including both B strain lineages. This phase 3, double-blind study assessed the immunogenicity and safety/tolerability of a quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV4) versus the United States (US)-licensed 2014-2015 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV3-Yamagata [IIV3-YAM]; Afluria) and IIV3 containing the alternate Victoria B strain (IIV3-VIC) in adults ≥18years. Participants (n=3484) were randomized 2:1:1 and stratified by age to receive IIV4 (n=1741), IIV3-YAM (n=871), or IIV3-VIC (n=872). The primary objective was to demonstrate noninferiority of the immunological response to IIV4 versus IIV3-YAM and IIV3-VIC. Noninferiority was assessed by hemagglutination inhibition geometric mean titer (GMT) ratio (IIV3/IIV4; upper bound of two-sided 95% confidence interval [CI]≤1.5) and seroconversion rate (SCR) difference (IIV3 - IIV4; upper bound of two-sided 95% CI≤10%) for vaccine strains. Solicited local and systemic adverse events (AEs) were assessed for 7days postvaccination, AEs recorded for 28days postvaccination, and serious AEs for 6months postvaccination. IIV4 elicited a noninferior immune response for matched strains, and superior response for unmatched B strains not contained in IIV3 comparators. Adjusted GMT ratios (95% CI) for A/H1N1, A/H3N2, B/YAM, and B/VIC strains were 0.93 (0.88, 0.99), 0.93 (0.88, 0.98), 0.87 (IIV3-YAM; 0.82, 0.93), and 0.95 (IIV3-VIC; 0.88, 1.03), respectively. Corresponding values for SCR differences (95% CI) were -1.1 (-4.5, 2.3), -1.7 (-5.0, 1.7), -3.2 (IIV3-YAM; -7.4, 0.9), and -1.6 (IIV3-VIC; -5.8, 2.5). AEs were generally mild and experienced by 52.9% of participants. Serious AEs were reported with a slightly higher frequency with IIV4 (2.3%) versus IIV3-YAM (1.6%) and IIV3-VIC (1.5%). IIV4 demonstrated immunological noninferiority to the US-licensed IIV3, and superiority for unmatched B strains not contained in IIV3 comparators. Safety/tolerability profiles were similar across vaccine groups. Seqirus; Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT02214225. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

U.S. Army Toxic Metal Reduction Program: Demonstrating Alternatives to Hexavalent Chromium and Cadmium in Surface Finishing

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-11-18

only) Medium Cal: M242 25mm Bushmaster, M230 30mm, GAU-12 25mm, 30mm Bushmaster II, EAPS 50mm POC: Vic Champagne , ARL, victor.k.champagne.civ...Shielding for Electronic Shelters) POC: Vic Champagne , ARL, victor.k.champagne.civ@mail.mil Cold Spray – Portable System and Internal Diameter

Markers linked to vegetative incompatibility (vic) genes and a region of high heterogeneity and reduced recombination near the mating type locus (MAT) in Cryphonectria parasitica

Treesearch

Thomas L. Kubisiak; Michael g. Milgroom

2006-01-01

To find markers linked to vegetative incompatibility (vic) genes in the chestnut blight fungus, Cryphonectria parasitica, we constructed a preliminary linkage map. In general, this map is characterized by low levels of polymorphism, as evident from the more than 24 linkage groups observed, compared to seven expected from electrophoretic karyotyping....

Triethylene Glycol Up-Regulates Virulence-Associated Genes and Proteins in Streptococcus mutans.

PubMed

Sadeghinejad, Lida; Cvitkovitch, Dennis G; Siqueira, Walter L; Santerre, J Paul; Finer, Yoav

2016-01-01

Triethylene glycol dimethacrylate (TEGDMA) is a diluent monomer used pervasively in dental composite resins. Through hydrolytic degradation of the composites in the oral cavity it yields a hydrophilic biodegradation product, triethylene glycol (TEG), which has been shown to promote the growth of Streptococcus mutans, a dominant cariogenic bacterium. Previously it was shown that TEG up-regulated gtfB, an important gene contributing to polysaccharide synthesis function in biofilms. However, molecular mechanisms related to TEG's effect on bacterial function remained poorly understood. In the present study, S. mutans UA159 was incubated with clinically relevant concentrations of TEG at pH 5.5 and 7.0. Quantitative real-time PCR, proteomics analysis, and glucosyltransferase enzyme (GTF) activity measurements were employed to identify the bacterial phenotypic response to TEG. A S. mutans vicK isogenic mutant (SMΔvicK1) and its associated complemented strain (SMΔvicK1C), an important regulatory gene for biofilm-associated genes, were used to determine if this signaling pathway was involved in modulation of the S. mutans virulence-associated genes. Extracted proteins from S. mutans biofilms grown in the presence and absence of TEG were subjected to mass spectrometry for protein identification, characterization and quantification. TEG up-regulated gtfB/C, gbpB, comC, comD and comE more significantly in biofilms at cariogenic pH (5.5) and defined concentrations. Differential response of the vicK knock-out (SMΔvicK1) and complemented strains (SMΔvicK1C) implicated this signalling pathway in TEG-modulated cellular responses. TEG resulted in increased GTF enzyme activity, responsible for synthesizing insoluble glucans involved in the formation of cariogenic biofilms. As well, TEG increased protein abundance related to biofilm formation, carbohydrate transport, acid tolerance, and stress-response. Proteomics data was consistent with gene expression findings for the selected genes. These findings demonstrate a mechanistic pathway by which TEG derived from commercial resin materials in the oral cavity promote S. mutans pathogenicity, which is typically associated with secondary caries.

Triethylene Glycol Up-Regulates Virulence-Associated Genes and Proteins in Streptococcus mutans

PubMed Central

Sadeghinejad, Lida; Cvitkovitch, Dennis G.; Siqueira, Walter L.; Santerre, J. Paul; Finer, Yoav

2016-01-01

Triethylene glycol dimethacrylate (TEGDMA) is a diluent monomer used pervasively in dental composite resins. Through hydrolytic degradation of the composites in the oral cavity it yields a hydrophilic biodegradation product, triethylene glycol (TEG), which has been shown to promote the growth of Streptococcus mutans, a dominant cariogenic bacterium. Previously it was shown that TEG up-regulated gtfB, an important gene contributing to polysaccharide synthesis function in biofilms. However, molecular mechanisms related to TEG’s effect on bacterial function remained poorly understood. In the present study, S. mutans UA159 was incubated with clinically relevant concentrations of TEG at pH 5.5 and 7.0. Quantitative real-time PCR, proteomics analysis, and glucosyltransferase enzyme (GTF) activity measurements were employed to identify the bacterial phenotypic response to TEG. A S. mutans vicK isogenic mutant (SMΔvicK1) and its associated complemented strain (SMΔvicK1C), an important regulatory gene for biofilm-associated genes, were used to determine if this signaling pathway was involved in modulation of the S. mutans virulence-associated genes. Extracted proteins from S. mutans biofilms grown in the presence and absence of TEG were subjected to mass spectrometry for protein identification, characterization and quantification. TEG up-regulated gtfB/C, gbpB, comC, comD and comE more significantly in biofilms at cariogenic pH (5.5) and defined concentrations. Differential response of the vicK knock-out (SMΔvicK1) and complemented strains (SMΔvicK1C) implicated this signalling pathway in TEG-modulated cellular responses. TEG resulted in increased GTF enzyme activity, responsible for synthesizing insoluble glucans involved in the formation of cariogenic biofilms. As well, TEG increased protein abundance related to biofilm formation, carbohydrate transport, acid tolerance, and stress-response. Proteomics data was consistent with gene expression findings for the selected genes. These findings demonstrate a mechanistic pathway by which TEG derived from commercial resin materials in the oral cavity promote S. mutans pathogenicity, which is typically associated with secondary caries. PMID:27820867

Downscaling Coarse Scale Microwave Soil Moisture Product using Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbaszadeh, P.; Moradkhani, H.; Yan, H.

2016-12-01

Soil moisture (SM) is a key variable in partitioning and examining the global water-energy cycle, agricultural planning, and water resource management. It is also strongly coupled with climate change, playing an important role in weather forecasting and drought monitoring and prediction, flood modeling and irrigation management. Although satellite retrievals can provide an unprecedented information of soil moisture at a global-scale, the products might be inadequate for basin scale study or regional assessment. To improve the spatial resolution of SM, this work presents a novel approach based on Machine Learning (ML) technique that allows for downscaling of the satellite soil moisture to fine resolution. For this purpose, the SMAP L-band radiometer SM products were used and conditioned on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model prediction to describe the relationship between the coarse and fine scale soil moisture data. The proposed downscaling approach was applied to a western US basin and the products were compared against the available SM data from in-situ gauge stations. The obtained results indicated a great potential of the machine learning technique to derive the fine resolution soil moisture information that is currently used for land data assimilation applications.

VICS82: The VISTA–CFHT Stripe 82 Near-infrared Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geach, J. E.; Lin, Y.-T.; Makler, M.; Kneib, J.-P.; Ross, N. P.; Wang, W.-H.; Hsieh, B.-C.; Leauthaud, A.; Bundy, K.; McCracken, H. J.; Comparat, J.; Caminha, G. B.; Hudelot, P.; Lin, L.; Van Waerbeke, L.; Pereira, M. E. S.; Mast, D.

2017-07-01

We present the VISTA–CFHT Stripe 82 (VICS82) survey: a near-infrared (J+Ks) survey covering 150 square degrees of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) equatorial Stripe 82 to an average depth of J = 21.9 AB mag and Ks = 21.4 AB mag (80% completeness limits; 5σ point-source depths are approximately 0.5 mag brighter). VICS82 contributes to the growing legacy of multiwavelength data in the Stripe 82 footprint. The addition of near-infrared photometry to the existing SDSS Stripe 82 coadd ugriz photometry reduces the scatter in stellar mass estimates to δ {log}({M}\\star )≈ 0.3 dex for galaxies with {M}\\star > {10}9 {M}ȯ at z≈ 0.5, and offers improvement compared to optical-only estimates out to z≈ 1, with stellar masses constrained within a factor of approximately 2.5. When combined with other multiwavelength imaging of the Stripe, including moderate-to-deep ultraviolet (GALEX), optical and mid-infrared (Spitzer-IRAC) coverage, as well as tens of thousands of spectroscopic redshifts, VICS82 gives access to approximately 0.5 Gpc3 of comoving volume. Some of the main science drivers of VICS82 include (a) measuring the stellar mass function of {L}\\star galaxies out to z∼ 1; (b) detecting intermediate-redshift quasars at 2≲ z≲ 3.5; (c) measuring the stellar mass function and baryon census of clusters of galaxies, and (d) performing cross-correlation experiments of cosmic microwave background lensing in the optical/near-infrared that link stellar mass to large-scale dark matter structure. Here we define and describe the survey, highlight some early science results, and present the first public data release, which includes an SDSS-matched catalog as well as the calibrated pixel data themselves.

Palliative sedation: reliability and validity of sedation scales.

PubMed

Arevalo, Jimmy J; Brinkkemper, Tijn; van der Heide, Agnes; Rietjens, Judith A; Ribbe, Miel; Deliens, Luc; Loer, Stephan A; Zuurmond, Wouter W A; Perez, Roberto S G M

2012-11-01

Observer-based sedation scales have been used to provide a measurable estimate of the comfort of nonalert patients in palliative sedation. However, their usefulness and appropriateness in this setting has not been demonstrated. To study the reliability and validity of observer-based sedation scales in palliative sedation. A prospective evaluation of 54 patients under intermittent or continuous sedation with four sedation scales was performed by 52 nurses. Included scales were the Minnesota Sedation Assessment Tool (MSAT), Richmond Agitation-Sedation Scale (RASS), Vancouver Interaction and Calmness Scale (VICS), and a sedation score proposed in the Guideline for Palliative Sedation of the Royal Dutch Medical Association (KNMG). Inter-rater reliability was tested with the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and Cohen's kappa coefficient. Correlations between the scales using Spearman's rho tested concurrent validity. We also examined construct, discriminative, and evaluative validity. In addition, nurses completed a user-friendliness survey. Overall moderate to high inter-rater reliability was found for the VICS interaction subscale (ICC = 0.85), RASS (ICC = 0.73), and KNMG (ICC = 0.71). The largest correlation between scales was found for the RASS and KNMG (rho = 0.836). All scales showed discriminative and evaluative validity, except for the MSAT motor subscale and VICS calmness subscale. Finally, the RASS was less time consuming, clearer, and easier to use than the MSAT and VICS. The RASS and KNMG scales stand as the most reliable and valid among the evaluated scales. In addition, the RASS was less time consuming, clearer, and easier to use than the MSAT and VICS. Further research is needed to evaluate the impact of the scales on better symptom control and patient comfort. Copyright © 2012 U.S. Cancer Pain Relief Committee. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Online virtual cases to teach resource stewardship.

PubMed

Zhou, Linghong Linda; Tait, Gordon; Sandhu, Sharron; Steiman, Amanda; Lake, Shirley

2018-06-11

As health care costs rise, medical education must focus on high-value clinical decision making. To teach and assess efficient resource use in rheumatology, online virtual interactive cases (VICs) were developed to simulate real patient encounters to increase price transparency and reinforce cost consciousness. To teach and assess efficient resource use in rheumatology, online virtual interactive cases (VICs) were developed METHODS: The VIC modules were distributed to a sample of medical students and internal medicine residents, who were required to assess patients, order appropriate investigations, develop differential diagnoses and formulate management plans. Each action was associated with a time and price, with the totals compared against ideals. Trainees were evaluated not only on their diagnosis and patient management, but also on the total time, cost and value of their selected workup. Trainee responses were tracked anonymously, with opportunity to provide feedback at the end of each case. Seventeen medical trainees completed a total of 48 VIC modules. On average, trainees spent CAN $227.52 and 68 virtual minutes on each case, which was lower than expected. This may have been the result of a low management score of 52.4%, although on average 92.0% of participants in each case achieved the correct diagnosis. In addition, 85.7% felt more comfortable working up similar cases, and 57.1% believed that the modules increased their ability to appropriately order cost-conscious rheumatology investigations. Our initial assessment of the VIC rheumatology modules was positive, supporting their role as an effective tool in teaching an approach to rheumatology patients, with an emphasis on resource stewardship. Future directions include the expansion of cases, based on feedback, wider dissemination and an evaluation of learning retention. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and The Association for the Study of Medical Education.

The Costs of Climate Change: Impact of Future Snow Cover Projections on Valuation of Albedo in Forest Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burakowski, E. A.; Lutz, D. A.

2014-12-01

Surface albedo provides an important climate regulating ecosystem service, particularly in the mid-latitudes where seasonal snow cover influences surface radiation budgets. In the case of substantial seasonal snow cover, the influence of albedo can equal or surpass the climatic benefits of carbon sequestration from forest growth. Climate mitigation platforms should therefore consider albedo in their framework in order to integrate these two climatic services in an economic context for the effective design and implementation of forest management projects. Over the next century, the influence of surface albedo is projected to diminish under higher emissions scenarios due to an overall decrease in snow depth and duration of snow cover in the mid-latitudes. In this study, we focus on the change in economic value of winter albedo in the northeastern United States projected through 2100 using the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) a1 and b1 scenarios. Statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation are used as input to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to provide future daily snow depth fields through 2100. Using VIC projections of future snow depth, projected winter albedo fields over deforested lands were generated using an empirical logarithmic relationship between snow depth and albedo derived from a volunteer network of snow observers in New Hampshire over the period Nov 2011 through 2014. Our results show that greater reductions in snow depth and the number of winter days with snow cover in the a1 compared to the b1 scenario reduce wintertime albedo when forested lands are harvested. This result has implications on future trade-offs among albedo, carbon storage, and timber value that should be investigated in greater detail. The impacts of forest harvest on radiative forcing associated with energy redistribution (e.g., latent heat and surface roughness length) should also be considered in future work.

Population trapping in the excited states using vacuum-induced coherence and adiabatic process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lal Kumawat, Babu; Kumar, Pardeep; Dasgupta, Shubhrangshu

2018-02-01

We theoretically investigate how population can be trapped in the closely spaced excited levels in presence of vacuum-induced coherence (VIC). We employ delayed pulses to transfer population from a meta-stable state to the excited states. Subsequently, spontaneous emission from these excited states builds coherence between them. This coherence can be probed by using chirping, which leads to the decoupling of the excited states from the ground state thereby ensuring population transfer via delayed pulses. Our results indicate that the existence of VIC leads to the generation of a mixed state in the excited state manifold, where trapping of the population occurs even in the presence of large decay. This trapping may be realized in molecular systems and can be interpreted as a sensitive probe of VIC. We present suitable numerical analysis to support our results.

Dismounted Warrior Network Experiments

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-11-01

Foxtrot Locomotion Human Joystick ODT Joystick Foot Pedal + Head Orientation Visual Display Wireless HMD 4 Projection Desktop Single Screens (WISE... Biomechanics DI-Guy JackML DI-Guy Table 1. VICs Comparison Matrix VIC Alpha is the Dismounted Soldier Simulation (DSS) system developed by Veda, Inc. under a...using a pressure sensitive foot pedal . The user’s head is tracked with a magnetic sensor and is used to control steering through the environment. A

Uncertainties in Hydrologic and Climate Change Impact Analysis in Major Watersheds in British Columbia, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, K. E.; Schnorbus, M.; Werner, A. T.; Music, B.; Caya, D.; Rodenhuis, D. R.

2009-12-01

Uncertainties in the projections of future hydrologic change can be assessed using a suite of tools, thereby allowing researchers to focus on improvement to identifiable sources of uncertainty. A pareto set of optimal hydrologic parameterizations was run for three BC watersheds (Fraser, Peace and Columbia) for a range of downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) emission scenarios to illustrate the uncertainty in hydrologic response to climate change. Results show varying responses of hydrologic regimes across geographic landscapes. Uncertainties in streamflow and water balance (runoff, evapo-transpiration, snow water equivalent, soil moisture) were analysed by forcing the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, run under twenty-five optimal parameter solution sets using six Bias-Corrected Statistically Downscaled (BCSD) GCM emission scenario projections for the 2050s and the 2080s. Projected changes by the 2050s include increased winter flows, increases and decreases in freshet magnitude depending on the scenario, and decreases in summer flows persisting until September. Winter runoff had the greatest range between GCM emission scenarios, while the hydrologic parameters within individual GCM emission scenarios had a winter runoff range an order of magnitude smaller. Evapo-transpiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture exhibited a spread of ~10% or less. Streamflow changes by the 2080s lie outside the natural range of historic variability over the winter and spring. Results indicate that the changes projected between GCM emission scenarios are greater than the differences between the hydrologic model parameterizations. An alternate tool, the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) has been set up for these watersheds and various runs have been analysed to determine the range and variability present and to examine these results in comparison to the hydrologic model projections. The CRCM range and variability is an improvement over the Canadian GCM and thus requires less bias correction. However, without downscaling the CRCM results are still coarser than what is required to drive macroscale hydrologic models, such as VIC. Applying these tools has illustrated the importance of focusing on improved downscaling efforts, including downscaling CRCM results rather than CGCM data. Tools for decision-making in the face of uncertainty are emerging as a priority for the climate change impacts community, and there is a need to focus on incorporating uncertainty information along with the projection of impacts. Assessing uncertainty across a range of regimes and geographic regions can assist to identify the main sources of uncertainty and allow researchers to focus on improving those sources using more robust methodological approaches and tools.

Inter-comparison of isotropic and anisotropic sea ice rheology in a fully coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, A.; Cassano, J. J.; Maslowski, W.; Osinski, R.; Seefeldt, M. W.; Hughes, M.; Duvivier, A.; Nijssen, B.; Hamman, J.; Hutchings, J. K.; Hunke, E. C.

2015-12-01

We present the sea ice climate of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), using a suite of new physics available in the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE5). RASM is a high-resolution fully coupled pan-Arctic model that also includes the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. The model domain extends from ~45˚N to the North Pole and is configured to run at ~9km resolution for the ice and ocean components, coupled to 50km resolution atmosphere and land models. The baseline sea ice model configuration includes mushy-layer sea ice thermodynamics and level-ice melt ponds. Using this configuration, we compare the use of isotropic and anisotropic sea ice mechanics, and evaluate model performance using these two variants against observations including Arctic buoy drift and deformation, satellite-derived drift and deformation, and sea ice volume estimates from ICESat. We find that the isotropic rheology better approximates spatial patterns of thickness observed across the Arctic, but that both rheologies closely approximate scaling laws observed in the pack using buoys and RGPS data. A fundamental component of both ice mechanics variants, the so called Elastic-Viscous-Plastic (EVP) and Anisotropic-Elastic-Plastic (EAP), is that they are highly sensitive to the timestep used for elastic sub-cycling in an inertial-resolving coupled framework, and this has a significant affect on surface fluxes in the fully coupled framework.

Simulating the hydrological impacts of inter-annual and seasonal variability in land use land cover change on streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taxak, A. K.; Ojha, C. S. P.

2017-12-01

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes within a watershed are recognised as an important factor affecting hydrological processes and water resources. LULC changes continuously not only in long term but also on the inter-annual and season level. Changes in LULC affects the interception, storage and moisture. A widely used approach in rainfall-runoff modelling through Land surface models (LSM)/ hydrological models is to keep LULC same throughout the model running period. In long term simulations where land use change take place during the run period, using a single LULC does not represent a true picture of ground conditions could result in stationarity of model responses. The present work presents a case study in which changes in LULC are incorporated by using multiple LULC layers. LULC for the study period were created using imageries from Landsat series, Sentinal, EO-1 ALI. Distributed, physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was modified to allow inclusion of LULC as a time varying variable just like climate. The Narayani basin was simulated with LULC, leaf area index (LAI), albedo and climate data for 1992-2015. The results showed that the model simulation with varied parametrization approach has a large improvement over the conventional fixed parametrization approach in terms of long-term water balance. The proposed modelling approach could improve hydrological modelling for applications like land cover change studies, water budget studies etc.

Advanced Distributed Simulation Technology II (ADST-II) Dismounted Warrior Network Front End Analysis Experiments

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-12-19

Resource Consultants Inc. (RCI) Science Applications InternatT Corp (SAIC) Veda Inc. Virtual Space Devices (VSD) 1.1 Background The Land Warrior...network. The VICs included: • VIC Alpha - a fully immersive Dismounted Soldier System developed by Veda under a STRICOM applied research effort...consists of the Dismounted Soldier System (DSS), which is characterized as follows: • Developed by Veda under a STRICOM applied research effort

Polyborylated reagents for modern organic synthesis

PubMed Central

SHIMIZU, Masaki; HIYAMA, Tamejiro

2008-01-01

Diverse kinds of gem- and vic-diborylated compounds are now readily available thanks to advances in gem-diborylation of lithium carbenoids as well as vic-diborylation of carbon–carbon multiple bonds with diboron compounds. These diborylated reagents lead to invention of polyborylated reagents and many novel and useful synthetic methods for supreme stereocontrol. This review summarizes preparative methods and synthetic reactions of di- and polyborylated reagents with the emphasis on multiple bond formation. PMID:18941288

Karyotype Analysis of Four Vicia Species using In Situ Hybridization with Repetitive Sequences

PubMed Central

NAVRÁTILOVÁ, ALICE; NEUMANN, PAVEL; MACAS, JIŘÍ

2003-01-01

Mitotic chromosomes of four Vicia species (V. sativa, V. grandiflora, V. pannonica and V. narbonensis) were subjected to in situ hybridization with probes derived from conserved plant repetitive DNA sequences (18S–25S and 5S rDNA, telomeres) and genus‐specific satellite repeats (VicTR‐A and VicTR‐B). Numbers and positions of hybridization signals provided cytogenetic landmarks suitable for unambiguous identification of all chromosomes, and establishment of the karyotypes. The VicTR‐A and ‐B sequences, in particular, produced highly informative banding patterns that alone were sufficient for discrimination of all chromosomes. However, these patterns were not conserved among species and thus could not be employed for identification of homologous chromosomes. This fact, together with observed variations in positions and numbers of rDNA loci, suggests considerable divergence between karyotypes of the species studied. PMID:12770847

Climate Change Impacts on the Los Angeles Aqueducts Water Sources: 21st Century Hydrologic Projections for Owens Valley and Mono Lake Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa-Cabral, M. C.; Roy, S. B.; Maurer, E. P.; Mills, W. B.; Chen, L.

2011-12-01

Precipitation from the Eastern Sierra Nevada watersheds of Owens Lake and Mono Lake is one of the main water sources, and the one of highest quality, for Los Angeles' more than 4 million people. Winter snow is stored in the large snowpack reservoir, and meltwater (~0.2-0.5 million acre-feet) is delivered annually to the city in the dry season by the 340-mile long Los Angeles Aqueduct system, operated by the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power. We identify plausible scenarios of future climate conditions in the Owens-Mono watersheds over the 21st century based on CMIP3 results for 16 global climate models (GCMs) statistically downscaled to 1/8° and greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 and B1; and we evaluate the consequent hydrologic impacts using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. Such climate scenarios have large and unquantifiable associated uncertainty and do not represent predictions, but are considered to be plausible under the current state of knowledge. We applied VIC to the Owens-Mono watersheds and calibrated the model using monthly streamflow records provided by LADWP. Of most interest to Los Angeles' water supply are the projections for the snowpack and the dry-season hydrograph that relies on snowmelt. Our results indicate future increases in the fraction of precipitation falling as rain rather than snow, from a historical value of about 20% to 20-30% by mid-century and 28-52% by end of century (depending on the GCM) for scenario A2. As a result, the snowpack's peak snow water equivalent (SWE) is projected to decline by most GCMs. The SWE peak is also projected to shift toward earlier dates (by a few days by mid-century and by a GCM-average of 2 weeks by end of century under emissions scenario A2). The diminished SWE, earlier SWE peak and earlier melt associated with rising temperatures result in earlier hydrograph peaks, a shift in the date marking the passage of half of the year's hydrograph volume (by more than one month by end of century for some GCMs under A2), and declining dry-season streamflows feeding the Los Angeles aqueducts.

A seasonal agricultural drought forecast system for food-insecure regions of East Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shukla, Shraddhanand; McNally, Amy; Husak, Gregory; Funk, Christopher C.

2014-01-01

 The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. More accurate seasonal agricultural drought forecasts for this region can inform better water and agricultural management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts and floods. Here we describe the development and implementation of a seasonal agricultural drought forecast system for East Africa (EA) that provides decision support for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network's science team. We evaluate this forecast system for a region of equatorial EA (2° S to 8° N, and 36° to 46° E) for the March-April-May growing season. This domain encompasses one of the most food insecure, climatically variable and socio-economically vulnerable regions in EA, and potentially the world: this region has experienced famine as recently as 2011. To assess the agricultural outlook for the upcoming season our forecast system simulates soil moisture (SM) scenarios using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model forced with climate scenarios for the upcoming season. First, to show that the VIC model is appropriate for this application we forced the model with high quality atmospheric observations and found that the resulting SM values were consistent with the Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO's) Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), an index used by FEWS NET to estimate crop yields. Next we tested our forecasting system with hindcast runs (1993–2012). We found that initializing SM forecasts with start-of-season (5 March) SM conditions resulted in useful SM forecast skill (> 0.5 correlation) at 1-month, and in some cases at 3 month lead times. Similarly, when the forecast was initialized with mid-season (i.e. 5 April) SM conditions the skill until the end-of-season improved. This shows that early-season rainfall is critical for end-of-season outcomes. Finally we show that, in terms of forecasting spatial patterns of SM anomalies, the skill of this agricultural drought forecast system is generally greater (> 0.8 correlation) during drought years. This means that this system might be particularity useful for identifying the events that present the greatest risk to the region.

Hydrological excitation of polar motion by different variables of the GLDAS models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wińska, Małgorzata; Nastula, Jolanta

Continental hydrological loading, by land water, snow, and ice, is an element that is strongly needed for a full understanding of the excitation of polar motion. In this study we compute different estimations of hydrological excitation functions of polar motion (Hydrological Angular Momentum - HAM) using various variables from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) models of land hydrosphere. The main aim of this study is to show the influence of different variables for example: total evapotranspiration, runoff, snowmelt, soil moisture to polar motion excitations in annual and short term scale. In our consideration we employ several realizations of the GLDAS model as: GLDAS Common Land Model (CLM), GLDAS Mosaic Model, GLDAS National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Oregon State University/Air Force/Hydrologic Research Lab Model (Noah), GLDAS Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model. Hydrological excitation functions of polar motion, both global and regional, are determined by using selected variables of these GLDAS realizations. First we compare a timing, spectra and phase diagrams of different regional and global HAMs with each other. Next, we estimate, the hydrological signal in geodetically observed polar motion excitation by subtracting the atmospheric -- AAM (pressure + wind) and oceanic -- OAM (bottom pressure + currents) contributions. Finally, the hydrological excitations are compared to these hydrological signal in observed polar motion excitation series. The results help us understand which variables of considered hydrological models are the most important for the polar motion excitation and how well we can close polar motion excitation budget in the seasonal and inter-annual spectral ranges.

Heart Valve Biomechanics and Underlying Mechanobiology

PubMed Central

Ayoub, Salma; Ferrari, Giovanni; Gorman, Robert C.; Gorman, Joseph H.; Schoen, Frederick J.; Sacks, Michael S.

2017-01-01

Heart valves control unidirectional blood flow within the heart during the cardiac cycle. They have a remarkable ability to withstand the demanding mechanical environment of the heart, achieving lifetime durability by processes involving the ongoing remodeling of the extracellular matrix. The focus of this review is on heart valve functional physiology, with insights into the link between disease-induced alterations in valve geometry, tissue stress, and the subsequent cell mechanobiological responses and tissue remodeling. We begin with an overview of the fundamentals of heart valve physiology and the characteristics and functions of valve interstitial cells (VICs). We then provide an overview of current experimental and computational approaches that connect VIC mechanobiological response to organ- and tissue-level deformations and improve our understanding of the underlying functional physiology of heart valves. We conclude with a summary of future trends and offer an outlook for the future of heart valve mechanobiology, specifically, multiscale modeling approaches, and the potential directions and possible challenges of research development. PMID:27783858

Aortic calcified particles modulate valvular endothelial and interstitial cells.

PubMed

van Engeland, Nicole C A; Bertazzo, Sergio; Sarathchandra, Padmini; McCormack, Ann; Bouten, Carlijn V C; Yacoub, Magdi H; Chester, Adrian H; Latif, Najma

Normal and calcified human valve cusps, coronary arteries, and aortae harbor spherical calcium phosphate microparticles of identical composition and crystallinity, and their role remains unknown. The objective was to examine the direct effects of isolated calcified particles on human valvular cells. Calcified particles were isolated from healthy and diseased aortae, characterized, quantitated, and applied to valvular endothelial cells (VECs) and interstitial cells (VICs). Cell differentiation, viability, and proliferation were analyzed. Particles were heterogeneous, differing in size and shape, and were crystallized as calcium phosphate. Diseased donors had significantly more calcified particles compared to healthy donors (P<.05), but there were no differences between the composition of the particles from healthy and diseased donors. VECs treated with calcified particles showed a significant decrease in CD31 and VE-cadherin and an increase in von Willebrand factor expression, P<.05. There were significantly increased α-SMA and osteopontin in treated VICs (P<.05), significantly decreased VEC and VIC viability (P<.05), and significantly increased number of terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick end labeling-positive VECs (P<.05) indicating apoptosis when treated with the calcified particles. Isolated calcified particles from human aortae are not innocent bystanders but induce a phenotypical and pathological change of VECs and VICs characteristic of activated and pathological cells. Therapy tailored to reduce these calcified particles should be investigated. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

3D Bioprinting of Heterogeneous Aortic Valve Conduits with Alginate/Gelatin Hydrogels

PubMed Central

Duan, Bin; Hockaday, Laura A.; Kang, Kevin H.; Butcher, Jonathan T.

2013-01-01

Heart valve disease is a serious and growing public health problem for which prosthetic replacement is most commonly indicated. Current prosthetic devices are inadequate for younger adults and growing children. Tissue engineered living aortic valve conduits have potential for remodeling, regeneration, and growth, but fabricating natural anatomical complexity with cellular heterogeneity remain challenging. In the current study, we implement 3D bioprinting to fabricate living alginate/gelatin hydrogel valve conduits with anatomical architecture and direct incorporation of dual cell types in a regionally constrained manner. Encapsulated aortic root sinus smooth muscle cells (SMC) and aortic valve leaflet interstitial cells (VIC) were viable within alginate/gelatin hydrogel discs over 7 days in culture. Acellular 3D printed hydrogels exhibited reduced modulus, ultimate strength, and peak strain reducing slightly over 7-day culture, while the tensile biomechanics of cell-laden hydrogels were maintained. Aortic valve conduits were successfully bioprinted with direct encapsulation of SMC in the valve root and VIC in the leaflets. Both cell types were viable (81.4±3.4% for SMC and 83.2±4.0% for VIC) within 3D printed tissues. Encapsulated SMC expressed elevated alpha-smooth muscle actin when printed in stiff matrix, while VIC expressed elevated vimentin in soft matrix. These results demonstrate that anatomically complex, heterogeneously encapsulated aortic valve hydrogel conduits can be fabricated with 3D bioprinting. PMID:23015540

Photocrosslinking of gelatin macromers to synthesize porous hydrogels that promote valvular interstitial cell function.

PubMed

Benton, Julie A; DeForest, Cole A; Vivekanandan, Vani; Anseth, Kristi S

2009-11-01

The development of novel three-dimensional cell culture platforms for the culture of aortic valvular interstitial cells (VICs) has been fraught with many challenges. Although the most tunable, purely synthetic systems have not been successful at promoting cell survivability or function. On the other hand, entirely natural materials lack mechanical integrity. Here we explore a novel hybrid system consisting of gelatin macromers synthetically modified with methacrylate functionalities allowing for photoencapsulation of cells. Scanning electron microscopy observations show a microporous structure induced during polymerization within the hydrogel. This porous structure was tunable with polymerization rate and did not appear to have interconnected pores. Treatment with collagenase caused bulk erosion indicating enzymatic degradation controls the matrix remodeling. VICs, an important cell line for heart valve tissue engineering, were photoencapsulated and examined for cell-directed migration and differentiation. VICs were able to achieve their native morphology within 2 weeks of culture. The addition of the pro-fibrotic growth factor, transforming growth factor-beta1, accelerated this process and also was capable of inducing enhanced alpha-smooth muscle actin and collagen-1 expression, indicating a differentiation from quiescent fibroblasts to active myofibroblasts as demonstrated by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction and immunohistochemistry. Although these studies were limited to VICs, this novel hydrogel system may also be useful for studying other fibroblastic cell types.

Long-term hydrometeorological trends in the Midwest region based on a century long gridded hydrometeorological dataset and simulations from a macro-scale hydrology model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, C. M.; Hamlet, A. F.

2014-12-01

Climate change is likely to impact the Great Lakes region and Midwest region via changes in Great Lakes water levels, agricultural impacts, river flooding, urban stormwater impacts, drought, water temperature, and impacts to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Self-consistent and temporally homogeneous long-term data sets of precipitation and temperature over the entire Great Lakes region and Midwest regions are needed to provide inputs to hydrologic models, assess historical trends in hydroclimatic variables, and downscale global and regional-scale climate models. To support these needs a new hybrid gridded meteorological forcing dataset at 1/16 degree resolution based on data from co-op station records, the U. S Historical Climatology Network (HCN) , the Historical Canadian Climate Database (HCCD), and Precipitation Regression on Independent Slopes Method (PRISM) has been assembled over the Great Lakes and Midwest region from 1915-2012 at daily time step. These data were then used as inputs to the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model, implemented over the Midwest and Great Lakes region at 1/16 degree resolution, to produce simulated hydrologic variables that are amenable to long-term trend analysis. Trends in precipitation and temperature from the new meteorological driving data sets, as well as simulated hydrometeorological variables such as snowpack, soil moisture, runoff, and evaporation over the 20th century are presented and discussed.

Seasonal hydrologic responses to climate change in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vano, Julie A.; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

2015-04-01

Increased temperatures and changes in precipitation will result in fundamental changes in the seasonal distribution of streamflow in the Pacific Northwest and will have serious implications for water resources management. To better understand local impacts of regional climate change, we conducted model experiments to determine hydrologic sensitivities of annual, seasonal, and monthly runoff to imposed annual and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land-surface hydrology model applied at 1/16° latitude-longitude spatial resolution over the Pacific Northwest (PNW), a scale sufficient to support analyses at the hydrologic unit code eight (HUC-8) basin level. These experiments resolve the spatial character of the sensitivity of future water supply to precipitation and temperature changes by identifying the seasons and locations where climate change will have the biggest impact on runoff. The PNW exhibited a diversity of responses, where transitional (intermediate elevation) watersheds experience the greatest seasonal shifts in runoff in response to cool season warming. We also developed a methodology that uses these hydrologic sensitivities as basin-specific transfer functions to estimate future changes in long-term mean monthly hydrographs directly from climate model output of precipitation and temperature. When principles of linearity and superposition apply, these transfer functions can provide feasible first-order estimates of the likely nature of future seasonal streamflow change without performing downscaling and detailed model simulations.

NCEP/NLDAS Drought Monitoring and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Y.; Ek, M.; Wood, E.; Luo, L.; Sheffield, J.; Lettenmaier, D.; Livneh, B.; Cosgrove, B.; Mocko, D.; Meng, J.; Wei, H.; Restrepo, P.; Schaake, J.; Mo, K.

2009-05-01

The NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) collaborated with its CPPA (Climate Prediction Program of the Americas) partners to develop a North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS, http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas) to monitor and predict the drought over the Continental United States (CONUS). The realtime NLDAS drought monitor, executed daily at NCEP/EMC, including daily, weekly and monthly anomaly and percentile of six fields (soil moisture, snow water equivalent, total runoff, streamflow, evaporation, precipitation) outputted from four land surface models (Noah, Mosaic, SAC, and VIC) on a common 1/8th degree grid using common hourly land surface forcing. The non-precipitation surface forcing is derived from NCEP's retrospective and realtime North American Regional Reanalysis System (NARR). The precipitation forcing is anchored to a daily gauge-only precipitation analysis over CONUS that applies a Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) correction. This daily precipitation analysis is then temporally disaggregated to hourly precipitation amounts using radar and satellite precipitation. The NARR- based surface downward solar radiation is bias-corrected using seven years (1997-2004) of GOES satellite- derived solar radiation retrievals. The uncoupled ensemble seasonal drought prediction utilizes the following three independent approaches for generating downscaled ensemble seasonal forecasts of surface forcing: (1) Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, (2) CPC Official Seasonal Climate Outlook, and (3) NCEP CFS ensemble dynamical model prediction. For each of these three approaches, twenty ensemble members of forcing realizations are generated using a Bayesian merging algorithm developed by Princeton University. The three forcing methods are then used to drive the VIC model in seasonal prediction mode over thirteen large river basins that together span the CONUS domain. One to nine month ensemble seasonal prediction products such as air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, snowpack, total runoff, evaporation and streamflow are derived for each forcing approach. The anomalies and percentiles of the predicted products for each approach may be used for CONUS drought prediction. This system is executed at the beginning of each month and distributes its products by the 10th of each month. The prediction products are evaluated using corresponding monitoring products for the VIC model and are compared with the prediction products from other research groups (e.g., University of Washington at Seattle, NASA Goddard) in the CONUS.

A Large-Scale, High-Resolution Hydrological Model Parameter Data Set for Climate Change Impact Assessment for the Conterminous US

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oubeidillah, Abdoul A; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim

2014-01-01

To extend geographical coverage, refine spatial resolution, and improve modeling efficiency, a computation- and data-intensive effort was conducted to organize a comprehensive hydrologic dataset with post-calibrated model parameters for hydro-climate impact assessment. Several key inputs for hydrologic simulation including meteorologic forcings, soil, land class, vegetation, and elevation were collected from multiple best-available data sources and organized for 2107 hydrologic subbasins (8-digit hydrologic units, HUC8s) in the conterminous United States at refined 1/24 (~4 km) spatial resolution. Using high-performance computing for intensive model calibration, a high-resolution parameter dataset was prepared for the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VICmore » simulation was driven by DAYMET daily meteorological forcing and was calibrated against USGS WaterWatch monthly runoff observations for each HUC8. The results showed that this new parameter dataset may help reasonably simulate runoff at most US HUC8 subbasins. Based on this exhaustive calibration effort, it is now possible to accurately estimate the resources required for further model improvement across the entire conterminous United States. We anticipate that through this hydrologic parameter dataset, the repeated effort of fundamental data processing can be lessened, so that research efforts can emphasize the more challenging task of assessing climate change impacts. The pre-organized model parameter dataset will be provided to interested parties to support further hydro-climate impact assessment.« less

Modeling multi-layer effects in passive microwave remote sensing of dry snow using Dense Media Radiative Transfer Theory (DMRT) based on quasicrystalline approximation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liang, D.; Xu, X.; Tsang, L.; Andreadis, K.M.; Josberger, E.G.

2008-01-01

The Dense Media Radiative Transfer theory (DMRT) of Quasicrystalline Approximation of Mie scattering by sticky particles is used to study the multiple scattering effects in layered snow in microwave remote sensing. Results are illustrated for various snow profile characteristics. Polarization differences and frequency dependences of multilayer snow model are significantly different from that of the single-layer snow model. Comparisons are also made with CLPX data using snow parameters as given by the VIC model. ?? 2007 IEEE.

Inflammation Drives Retraction, Stiffening, and Nodule Formation via Cytoskeletal Machinery in a Three-Dimensional Culture Model of Aortic Stenosis.

PubMed

Lim, Jina; Ehsanipour, Arshia; Hsu, Jeffrey J; Lu, Jinxiu; Pedego, Taylor; Wu, Alexander; Walthers, Chris M; Demer, Linda L; Seidlits, Stephanie K; Tintut, Yin

2016-09-01

In calcific aortic valve disease, the valve cusps undergo retraction, stiffening, and nodular calcification. The inflammatory cytokine, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, contributes to valve disease progression; however, the mechanisms of its actions on cusp retraction and stiffening are unclear. We investigated effects of TNF-α on murine aortic valvular interstitial cells (VICs) within three-dimensional, free-floating, compliant, collagen hydrogels, simulating their natural substrate and biomechanics. TNF-α increased retraction (percentage of diameter), stiffness, and formation of macroscopic, nodular structures with calcification in the VIC-laden hydrogels. The effects of TNF-α were attenuated by blebbistatin inhibition of myosin II-mediated cytoskeletal contraction. Inhibition of actin polymerization with cytochalasin-D, but not inhibition of Rho kinase with Y27632, blocked TNF-α-induced retraction in three-dimensional VIC hydrogels, suggesting that actin stress fibers mediate TNF-α-induced effects. In the hydrogels, inhibitors of NF-κB blocked TNF-α-induced retraction, whereas simultaneous inhibition of c-Jun N-terminal kinase was required to block TNF-α-induced stiffness. TNF-α also significantly increased collagen deposition, as visualized by Masson's trichrome staining, and up-regulated mRNA expression of discoidin domain receptor tyrosine kinase 2, fibronectin, and α-smooth muscle actin. In human aortic valves, calcified cusps were stiffer and had more collagen deposition than noncalcified cusps. These findings suggest that inflammation, through stimulation of cytoskeletal contractile activity, may be responsible for valvular cusp retraction, stiffening, and formation of calcified nodules. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Investigative Pathology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A versatile approach to vacuum injection casting for materials research and development.

PubMed

Xu, Donghua; Xu, Yifan

2017-03-01

Vacuum injection casting (VIC) is important for research and development (R&D) of materials that are prone to oxidation at high temperatures, particularly metals and metallic alloys (e.g., metallic glasses and high entropy alloys). VIC in R&D laboratories often involves initial melting/alloying in a prior step, transporting the sample to a dedicated vacuum chamber, re-melting the sample in a quartz tube, and finally injecting the melt with an inert gas to a dedicated mold. Here we present a new approach to laboratory VIC that requires no sample transfer (for a variety of materials), no dedicated vacuum chamber/space nor dedicated mold, and hence provides more versatility and higher efficiency and yet lowers the capital equipment cost. Our approach takes advantage of the exceptional portability, thermal and chemical stability, and thermoplastic processability of quartz glass and uses quartz tubes for all the melting, re-melting, injection casting, and molding. In addition, our approach includes oxygen gettering to remove residual oxygen for all the steps and allows for slow or fast cooling (e.g., water quenching) upon injection. This paper focuses on the design, the procedures, and the versatile features of this new approach while also demonstrating the practical implementation of this approach and computational modeling of the heat transfer and the cooling rates for two exemplary cases. The new approach is expected to bring notable expedition to sample fabrication and materials discovery, as well as wider adoption of vacuum injection casting in materials science and condensed matter physics research laboratories.

A versatile approach to vacuum injection casting for materials research and development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Donghua; Xu, Yifan

2017-03-01

Vacuum injection casting (VIC) is important for research and development (R&D) of materials that are prone to oxidation at high temperatures, particularly metals and metallic alloys (e.g., metallic glasses and high entropy alloys). VIC in R&D laboratories often involves initial melting/alloying in a prior step, transporting the sample to a dedicated vacuum chamber, re-melting the sample in a quartz tube, and finally injecting the melt with an inert gas to a dedicated mold. Here we present a new approach to laboratory VIC that requires no sample transfer (for a variety of materials), no dedicated vacuum chamber/space nor dedicated mold, and hence provides more versatility and higher efficiency and yet lowers the capital equipment cost. Our approach takes advantage of the exceptional portability, thermal and chemical stability, and thermoplastic processability of quartz glass and uses quartz tubes for all the melting, re-melting, injection casting, and molding. In addition, our approach includes oxygen gettering to remove residual oxygen for all the steps and allows for slow or fast cooling (e.g., water quenching) upon injection. This paper focuses on the design, the procedures, and the versatile features of this new approach while also demonstrating the practical implementation of this approach and computational modeling of the heat transfer and the cooling rates for two exemplary cases. The new approach is expected to bring notable expedition to sample fabrication and materials discovery, as well as wider adoption of vacuum injection casting in materials science and condensed matter physics research laboratories.

A Physically Based Runoff Routing Model for Land Surface and Earth System Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Hongyi; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Wu, Huan

2013-06-13

A new physically based runoff routing model, called the Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART), has been developed to be applicable across local, regional, and global scales. Within each spatial unit, surface runoff is first routed across hillslopes and then discharged along with subsurface runoff into a ‘‘tributary subnetwork’’ before entering the main channel. The spatial units are thus linked via routing through the main channel network, which is constructed in a scale-consistent way across different spatial resolutions. All model parameters are physically based, and only a small subset requires calibration.MOSART has been applied to the Columbia River basinmore » at 1/ 168, 1/ 88, 1/ 48, and 1/ 28 spatial resolutions and was evaluated using naturalized or observed streamflow at a number of gauge stations. MOSART is compared to two other routing models widely used with land surface models, the River Transport Model (RTM) in the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Lohmann routing model, included as a postprocessor in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model package, yielding consistent performance at multiple resolutions. MOSART is further evaluated using the channel velocities derived from field measurements or a hydraulic model at various locations and is shown to be capable of producing the seasonal variation and magnitude of channel velocities reasonably well at different resolutions. Moreover, the impacts of spatial resolution on model simulations are systematically examined at local and regional scales. Finally, the limitations ofMOSART and future directions for improvements are discussed.« less

Virtual Interactive Classroom: A New Technology for Distance Learning Developed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

York, David W.; Babula, Maria

1999-01-01

The Virtual Interactive Classroom (VIC) allows Internet users, specifically students, to remotely control and access data from scientific equipment. This is a significant advantage to school systems that cannot afford experimental equipment, have Internet access, and are seeking to improve science and math scores with current resources. A VIC Development Lab was established at Lewis to demonstrate that scientific equipment can be controlled by remote users over the Internet. Current projects include a wind tunnel, a room camera, a science table, and a microscope.

Fast food purchasing and access to fast food restaurants: a multilevel analysis of VicLANES.

PubMed

Thornton, Lukar E; Bentley, Rebecca J; Kavanagh, Anne M

2009-05-27

While previous research on fast food access and purchasing has not found evidence of an association, these studies have had methodological problems including aggregation error, lack of specificity between the exposures and outcomes, and lack of adjustment for potential confounding. In this paper we attempt to address these methodological problems using data from the Victorian Lifestyle and Neighbourhood Environments Study (VicLANES) - a cross-sectional multilevel study conducted within metropolitan Melbourne, Australia in 2003. The VicLANES data used in this analysis included 2547 participants from 49 census collector districts in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. The outcome of interest was the total frequency of fast food purchased for consumption at home within the previous month (never, monthly and weekly) from five major fast food chains (Red Rooster, McDonalds, Kentucky Fried Chicken, Hungry Jacks and Pizza Hut). Three measures of fast food access were created: density and variety, defined as the number of fast food restaurants and the number of different fast food chains within 3 kilometres of road network distance respectively, and proximity defined as the road network distance to the closest fast food restaurant.Multilevel multinomial models were used to estimate the associations between fast food restaurant access and purchasing with never purchased as the reference category. Models were adjusted for confounders including determinants of demand (attitudes and tastes that influence food purchasing decisions) as well as individual and area socio-economic characteristics. Purchasing fast food on a monthly basis was related to the variety of fast food restaurants (odds ratio 1.13; 95% confidence interval 1.02 - 1.25) after adjusting for individual and area characteristics. Density and proximity were not found to be significant predictors of fast food purchasing after adjustment for individual socio-economic predictors. Although we found an independent association between fast food purchasing and access to a wider variety of fast food restaurant, density and proximity were not significant predictors. The methods used in our study are an advance on previous analyses.

Attaining insight into interactions between hydrologic model parameters and geophysical attributes for national-scale model parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizukami, N.; Clark, M. P.; Newman, A. J.; Wood, A.; Gutmann, E. D.

2017-12-01

Estimating spatially distributed model parameters is a grand challenge for large domain hydrologic modeling, especially in the context of hydrologic model applications such as streamflow forecasting. Multi-scale Parameter Regionalization (MPR) is a promising technique that accounts for the effects of fine-scale geophysical attributes (e.g., soil texture, land cover, topography, climate) on model parameters and nonlinear scaling effects on model parameters. MPR computes model parameters with transfer functions (TFs) that relate geophysical attributes to model parameters at the native input data resolution and then scales them using scaling functions to the spatial resolution of the model implementation. One of the biggest challenges in the use of MPR is identification of TFs for each model parameter: both functional forms and geophysical predictors. TFs used to estimate the parameters of hydrologic models typically rely on previous studies or were derived in an ad-hoc, heuristic manner, potentially not utilizing maximum information content contained in the geophysical attributes for optimal parameter identification. Thus, it is necessary to first uncover relationships among geophysical attributes, model parameters, and hydrologic processes (i.e., hydrologic signatures) to obtain insight into which and to what extent geophysical attributes are related to model parameters. We perform multivariate statistical analysis on a large-sample catchment data set including various geophysical attributes as well as constrained VIC model parameters at 671 unimpaired basins over the CONUS. We first calibrate VIC model at each catchment to obtain constrained parameter sets. Additionally, parameter sets sampled during the calibration process are used for sensitivity analysis using various hydrologic signatures as objectives to understand the relationships among geophysical attributes, parameters, and hydrologic processes.

Comprehensive Analysis of Drought Persistence, Hazard, and Recovery across the CONUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarekarizi, M.; Ahmadi, B.; Moradkhani, H.

2017-12-01

Drought is a creeping intertwined natural hazard affecting society more than any other natural disaster and causing enormous damages on economy and ecosystems. Better understanding of potential drought hazard can help water managers and stakeholders devising mitigation plans to minimize the adverse effects of droughts. In this study, soil moisture, simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, is used to analyze the probability of agricultural drought with different severities across the CONUS. Due to the persistence of soil moisture, a drought episode at a particular time is affected by its earlier status; therefore, this study has utilized a Copula function to model the selected hydrologic variable over the time. The probability of drought intensity for each unit is presented spatially. If the unit remains in the drought condition at the same or lower intensity, drought persists and if it improves above a pre-defined threshold, the unit recovers. Results show that the west of US is more vulnerable to drought persistence in summer and spring while the Midwest and Northeast of US are experiencing drought persistence in fall and winter. In addition, the analysis reveals that as the intensity of drought in a given season decreases the following season has higher chance of recovery.

Changes in the flood frequency in the Mahanadi basin under observed and projected future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modi, P. A.; Lakshmi, V.; Mishra, V.

2017-12-01

The Mahanadi river basin is vulnerable to multiple types of extreme events due to its topography and river networks. These extreme events are not efficiently captured by the current LSMs partly due to lack of spatial hydrological data and uncertainty in the models. This study compares and evaluates the hydrologic simulations of the recently developed community Noah model with multi-parameterization options which is an upgradation of baseline Noah LSM. The model is calibrated and validated for the Mahanadi river basin and is driven by major atmospheric forcing from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), Tropical rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP designed for hydrological modeling) precipitation datasets along with some additional forcing derived from the VIC model at 0.25-degree spatial resolution. The Noah-MP LSM is calibrated using observed daily streamflow data from 1978-1989 (India-WRIS) at the gauge stations with least human interventions with a Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency higher than 0.60. Noah MP was calibrated using different schemes for runoff with variation in all parameters sensitive to surface and sub-surface runoff. Streamflow routing was performed using a stand-alone model (VIC model) to route daily model runoff at required gauge station. Surface runoff is mainly affected by the uncertainties in major atmospheric forcing and highly sensitive parameters pertaining to soil properties. Noah MP is validated using observed streamflow from 1975-2010 which indicates the consistency of streamflow with the historical observations (NSE>0.65) thus indicating an increase in probability of future flood events.

Modeling Failure and Reliability in New-Generation Devices

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-07-15

them to point of per- manen da=age. An airaft enploying GaAs MMIC rIar DU] reccivr can expet to have the receiveis damaged by a Dects cko= appoach to...znergUy. usng tannielwg electron spxtrIDopy, an 8. Julie E. Lawr=,-e Vic~tcr A. J. van Lintk and Jamnes P. th = au usn ba bandC~ dopulses In Pw Of Raymcmd

Regulation of a Viral Proteinase by a Peptide and DNA in One-dimensional Space

PubMed Central

Graziano, Vito; Luo, Guobin; Blainey, Paul C.; Pérez-Berná, Ana J.; McGrath, William J.; Flint, S. Jane; San Martín, Carmen; Xie, X. Sunney; Mangel, Walter F.

2013-01-01

Late in an adenovirus infection, the viral proteinase (AVP) becomes activated to process virion precursor proteins used in virus assembly. AVP is activated by two cofactors, the viral DNA and pVIc, an 11-amino acid peptide originating from the C terminus of the precursor protein pVI. There is a conundrum in the activation of AVP in that AVP and pVI are sequence-independent DNA-binding proteins with nm equilibrium dissociation constants such that in the virus particle, they are predicted to be essentially irreversibly bound to the viral DNA. Here, we resolve that conundrum by showing that activation of AVP takes place on the one-dimensional contour of DNA. In vitro, pVI, a substrate, slides on DNA via one-dimensional diffusion, D1 = 1.45 × 106 bp2/s, until it binds to AVP also on the same DNA molecule. AVP, partially activated by being bound to DNA, excises pVIc, which binds to the AVP molecule that cut it out. pVIc then forms a disulfide bond with AVP forming the fully active AVP-pVIc complex bound to DNA. In vivo, in heat-disrupted immature virus, AVP was also activated by pVI in DNA-dependent reactions. This activation mechanism illustrates a new paradigm for virion maturation and a new way, by sliding on DNA, for bimolecular complexes to form among proteins not involved in DNA metabolism. PMID:23043137

Multiple two-component systems modulate alkali generation in Streptococcus gordonii in response to environmental stresses.

PubMed

Liu, Yaling; Burne, Robert A

2009-12-01

The oral commensal Streptococcus gordonii must adapt to constantly fluctuating and often hostile environmental conditions to persist in the oral cavity. The arginine deiminase system (ADS) of S. gordonii enables cells to produce, ornithine, ammonia, CO(2), and ATP from arginine hydrolysis, augmenting the acid tolerance of the organism. The ADS genes are substrate inducible and sensitive to catabolite repression, mediated through ArcR and CcpA, respectively, but the system also requires low pH and anaerobic conditions for optimal activation. Here, we demonstrate that the CiaRH and ComDE two-component systems (TCS) are required for low-pH-dependent expression of ADS genes in S. gordonii. Further, the VicRK TCS is required for optimal ADS gene expression under anaerobic conditions and enhances the sensitivity of the operon to repression by oxygen. The known anaerobic activator of the ADS, Fnr-like protein (Flp), appeared to act independently of the Vic TCS. Mutants of S. gordonii lacking components of the CiaRH, ComDE, or VicRK grew more slowly in acidified media and were more sensitive to killing at lethal pH values and to agents that induce oxidative stress. This study provides the first evidence that TCS can regulate the ADS of bacteria in response to specific environmental signals and reveals some notable differences in the contribution of CiaRH, ComDE, and VicRK to viability and stress tolerance between the oral commensal S. gordonii and the oral pathogen Streptococcus mutans.

Replication of Beta- and Gammaretroviruses Is Restricted in I/LnJ Mice via the Same Genetic Mechanism▿

PubMed Central

Case, Laure K.; Petell, Lydia; Yurkovetskiy, Leonid; Purdy, Alexandra; Savage, Katherine J.; Golovkina, Tatyana V.

2008-01-01

Mice of the I/LnJ inbred strain are unique in their ability to mount a robust and sustained humoral immune response capable of neutralizing infection with a betaretrovirus, mouse mammary tumor virus (MMTV). Virus-neutralizing antibodies (Abs) coat MMTV virions secreted by infected cells, preventing virus spread and hence the formation of mammary tumors. To investigate whether I/LnJ mice resist infection with other retroviruses besides MMTV, the animals were infected with murine leukemia virus (MuLV), a gammaretrovirus. MuLV-infected I/LnJ mice produced virus-neutralizing Abs that block virus transmission and virally induced disease. Generation of virus-neutralizing Abs required gamma interferon but was independent of interleukin-12. This unique mechanism of retrovirus resistance is governed by a single recessive gene, virus infectivity controller 1 (vic1), mapped to chromosome 17. In addition to controlling the antivirus humoral immune response, vic1 is also required for an antiviral cytotoxic response. Both types of responses were maintained in mice of the susceptible genetic background but congenic for the I/LnJ vic1 locus. Although the vic1-mediated resistance to MuLV resembles the mechanism of retroviral recovery controlled by the resistance to Friend virus 3 (rfv3) gene, the rfv3 gene has been mapped to chromosome 15 and confers resistance to MuLV but not to MMTV. Thus, we have identified a unique virus resistance mechanism that controls immunity against two distinct retroviruses. PMID:18057254

Impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on ensemble flood forecasting over Lanjiang basin, Southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Li; Xu, Yue-Ping

2017-04-01

Ensemble flood forecasting driven by numerical weather prediction products is becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications.In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated.The hydrological model is optimized by parallel programmed ɛ-NSGAII multi-objective algorithm and two respectively parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows coupled with a modular approach.The results indicatethat the ɛ-NSGAII algorithm permits more efficient optimization and rational determination on parameter setting.It is demonstrated that the multimodel ensemble streamflow mean have better skills than the best singlemodel ensemble mean (ECMWF) and the multimodel ensembles weighted on members and skill scores outperform other multimodel ensembles. For typical flood event, it is proved that the flood can be predicted 3-4 days in advance, but the flows in rising limb can be captured with only 1-2 days ahead due to the flash feature. With respect to peak flows selected by Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from either singlemodel or multimodels are generally underestimated as the extreme values are smoothed out by ensemble process.

Cattle phenotypes can disguise their maternal ancestry.

PubMed

Srirattana, Kanokwan; McCosker, Kieren; Schatz, Tim; St John, Justin C

2017-06-26

Cattle are bred for, amongst other factors, specific traits, including parasite resistance and adaptation to climate. However, the influence and inheritance of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) are not usually considered in breeding programmes. In this study, we analysed the mtDNA profiles of cattle from Victoria (VIC), southern Australia, which is a temperate climate, and the Northern Territory (NT), the northern part of Australia, which has a tropical climate, to determine if the mtDNA profiles of these cattle are indicative of breed and phenotype, and whether these profiles are appropriate for their environments. A phylogenetic tree of the full mtDNA sequences of different breeds of cattle, which were obtained from the NCBI database, showed that the mtDNA profiles of cattle do not always reflect their phenotype as some cattle with Bos taurus phenotypes had Bos indicus mtDNA, whilst some cattle with Bos indicus phenotypes had Bos taurus mtDNA. Using D-loop sequencing, we were able to contrast the phenotypes and mtDNA profiles from different species of cattle from the 2 distinct cattle breeding regions of Australia. We found that 67 of the 121 cattle with Bos indicus phenotypes from NT (55.4%) had Bos taurus mtDNA. In VIC, 92 of the 225 cattle with Bos taurus phenotypes (40.9%) possessed Bos indicus mtDNA. When focusing on oocytes from cattle with the Bos taurus phenotype in VIC, their respective oocytes with Bos indicus mtDNA had significantly lower levels of mtDNA copy number compared with oocytes possessing Bos taurus mtDNA (P < 0.01). However, embryos derived from oocytes with Bos indicus mtDNA had the same ability to develop to the blastocyst stage and the levels of mtDNA copy number in their blastocysts were similar to blastocysts derived from oocytes harbouring Bos taurus mtDNA. Nevertheless, oocytes originating from the Bos indicus phenotype exhibited lower developmental potential due to low mtDNA copy number when compared with oocytes from cattle with a Bos taurus phenotype. The phenotype of cattle is not always related to their mtDNA profiles. MtDNA profiles should be considered for breeding programmes as they also influence phenotypic traits and reproductive capacity in terms of oocyte quality.

Determinants of health after hospital discharge: rationale and design of the Vanderbilt Inpatient Cohort Study (VICS)

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The period following hospital discharge is a vulnerable time for patients when errors and poorly coordinated care are common. Suboptimal care transitions for patients admitted with cardiovascular conditions can contribute to readmission and other adverse health outcomes. Little research has examined the role of health literacy and other social determinants of health in predicting post-discharge outcomes. Methods The Vanderbilt Inpatient Cohort Study (VICS), funded by the National Institutes of Health, is a prospective longitudinal study of 3,000 patients hospitalized with acute coronary syndromes or acute decompensated heart failure. Enrollment began in October 2011 and is planned through October 2015. During hospitalization, a set of validated demographic, cognitive, psychological, social, behavioral, and functional measures are administered, and health status and comorbidities are assessed. Patients are interviewed by phone during the first week after discharge to assess the quality of hospital discharge, communication, and initial medication management. At approximately 30 and 90 days post-discharge, interviewers collect additional data on medication adherence, social support, functional status, quality of life, and health care utilization. Mortality will be determined with up to 3.5 years follow-up. Statistical models will examine hypothesized relationships of health literacy and other social determinants on medication management, functional status, quality of life, utilization, and mortality. In this paper, we describe recruitment, eligibility, follow-up, data collection, and analysis plans for VICS, as well as characteristics of the accruing patient cohort. Discussion This research will enhance understanding of how health literacy and other patient factors affect the quality of care transitions and outcomes after hospitalization. Findings will help inform the design of interventions to improve care transitions and post-discharge outcomes. PMID:24397292

Assessing the effects of adaptation measures on optimal water resources allocation under varied water availability conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Dedi; Guo, Shenglian; Shao, Quanxi; Liu, Pan; Xiong, Lihua; Wang, Le; Hong, Xingjun; Xu, Yao; Wang, Zhaoli

2018-01-01

Human activities and climate change have altered the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability which is a principal prerequisite for allocation of different water resources. In order to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on water availability and optimal allocation of water resources, hydrological models and optimal water resource allocation models should be integrated. Given that increasing human water demand and varying water availability conditions necessitate adaptation measures, we propose a framework to assess the effects of these measures on optimal allocation of water resources. The proposed model and framework were applied to a case study of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin in China. Two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) were employed to project future climate, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was used to simulate the variability of flows under historical (1956-2011) and future (2012-2099) conditions. The water availability determined by simulating flow with the VIC hydrological model was used to establish the optimal water resources allocation model. The allocation results were derived under an extremely dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 95%), a very dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 90%), a dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 75%), and a normal year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 50%) during historical and future periods. The results show that the total available water resources in the study area and the inflow of the Danjiangkou Reservoir will increase in the future. However, the uneven distribution of water availability will cause water shortage problems, especially in the boundary areas. The effects of adaptation measures, including water saving, and dynamic control of flood limiting water levels (FLWLs) for reservoir operation, were assessed and implemented to alleviate water shortages. The negative impacts from the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (Middle Route) in the mid-lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin can be avoided through the dynamic control of FLWLs in Danjiangkou Reservoir, under the historical and future RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. However, the effects of adaptation measures are limited due to their own constraints, such as the characteristics of the reservoirs influencing the FLWLs. The utilization of storm water appears necessary to meet future water demand. Overall, the results indicate that the framework for assessing the effects of adaptation measures on water resources allocation might aid water resources management, not only in the study area but also in other places where water availability conditions vary due to climate change and human activities.

Simulating the Snow Water Equivalent and its changing pattern over Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niroula, S.; Joseph, J.; Ghosh, S.

2016-12-01

Snow fall in the Himalayan region is one of the primary sources of fresh water, which accounts around 10% of total precipitation of Nepal. Snow water is an intricate variable in terms of its global and regional estimates whose complexity is favored by spatial variability linked with rugged topography. The study is primarily focused on simulation of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) by the use of a macroscale hydrologic model, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC). As whole Nepal including its Himalayas lies under the catchment of Ganga River in India, contributing at least 40% of annual discharge of Ganges, this model was run in the entire watershed that covers part of Tibet and Bangladesh as well. Meteorological inputs for 29 years (1979-2007) are drawn from ERA-INTERIM and APHRODITE dataset for horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees. The analysis was performed to study temporal variability of SWE in the Himalayan region of Nepal. The model was calibrated by observed stream flows of the tributaries of the Gandaki River in Nepal which ultimately feeds river Ganga. Further, the simulated SWE is used to estimate stream flow in this river basin. Since Nepal has a greater snow cover accumulation in monsoon season than in winter at high altitudes, seasonality fluctuations in SWE affecting the stream flows are known. The model provided fair estimates of SWE and stream flow as per statistical analysis. Stream flows are known to be sensitive to the changes in snow water that can bring a negative impact on power generation in a country which has huge hydroelectric potential. In addition, our results on simulated SWE in second largest snow-fed catchment of the country will be helpful for reservoir management, flood forecasting and other water resource management issues. Keywords: Hydrology, Snow Water Equivalent, Variable Infiltration Capacity, Gandaki River Basin, Stream Flow

Sensitivity of Global Terrestrial Gross Primary Production to Hydrologic States Simulated by the Community Land Model Using Two Runoff Parameterizations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lei, Huimin; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

2014-09-01

The terrestrial water and carbon cycles interact strongly at various spatio-temporal scales. To elucidate how hydrologic processes may influence carbon cycle processes, differences in terrestrial carbon cycle simulations induced by structural differences in two runoff generation schemes were investigated using the Community Land Model 4 (CLM4). Simulations were performed with runoff generation using the default TOPMODEL-based and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model approaches under the same experimental protocol. The comparisons showed that differences in the simulated gross primary production (GPP) are mainly attributed to differences in the simulated leaf area index (LAI) rather than soil moisture availability. More specifically,more » differences in runoff simulations can influence LAI through changes in soil moisture, soil temperature, and their seasonality that affect the onset of the growing season and the subsequent dynamic feedbacks between terrestrial water, energy, and carbon cycles. As a result of a relative difference of 36% in global mean total runoff between the two models and subsequent changes in soil moisture, soil temperature, and LAI, the simulated global mean GPP differs by 20.4%. However, the relative difference in the global mean net ecosystem exchange between the two models is small (2.1%) due to competing effects on total mean ecosystem respiration and other fluxes, although large regional differences can still be found. Our study highlights the significant interactions among the water, energy, and carbon cycles and the need for reducing uncertainty in the hydrologic parameterization of land surface models to better constrain carbon cycle modeling.« less

DNA methylation of a PLPP3 MIR transposon-based enhancer promotes an osteogenic program in calcific aortic valve disease.

PubMed

Mkannez, Ghada; Gagné-Ouellet, Valérie; Nsaibia, Mohamed Jalloul; Boulanger, Marie-Chloé; Rosa, Mickael; Argaud, Deborah; Hadji, Fayez; Gaudreault, Nathalie; Rhéaume, Gabrielle; Bouchard, Luigi; Bossé, Yohan; Mathieu, Patrick

2018-05-02

Calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) is characterized by the osteogenic transition of valve interstitial cells (VICs). In CAVD, lysophosphatidic acid (LysoPA), a lipid mediator with potent osteogenic activity, is produced in the aortic valve (AV) and is degraded by membrane-associated phospholipid phosphatases (PLPPs). We thus hypothesized that a dysregulation of PLPPs could participate to the osteogenic reprograming of VICs during CAVD. The expression of PLPPs was examined in human control and mineralized AVs and comprehensive analyses were performed to document the gene regulation and impact of PLPPs on the osteogenic transition of VICs. We found that PLPP3 gene and enzymatic activity were downregulated in mineralized AVs. Multidimensional gene profiling in 21 human AVs showed that expression of PLPP3 was inversely correlated with the level of 5-methylcytosine (5meC) located in an intronic mammalian interspersed repeat element (MIR). Bisulfite pyrosequencing in a larger series of 67 AVs confirmed that 5meC in intron 1 was increased by 2.2-fold in CAVD compared to control AVs. In isolated cells, epigenome editing with CRISPR-Cas9 system containing a deficient Cas9 fused with DNA methyltransferase (dCas9-DNMT) was used to increase 5meC in the intronic enhancer and showed that it reduced significantly the expression of PLPP3. Knockdown experiments showed that lower expression of PLPP3 in VICs promotes an osteogenic program. DNA methylation of a MIR-based enhancer downregulates the expression of PLPP3 and promotes the mineralization of the AV.

Cataract Avoidance With Proton Therapy in Ocular Melanomas.

PubMed

Thariat, Juliette; Jacob, Sophie; Caujolle, Jean-Pierre; Maschi, Celia; Baillif, Stéphanie; Angellier, Gaelle; Mathis, Thibaud; Rosier, Laurence; Carnicer, Adela; Hérault, Joel; Salleron, Julia

2017-10-01

The lens is a radiosensitive organ. Any dose of cephalic irradiation can give rise to radiation-induced cataracts. Contrary to other forms of radiotherapy, proton therapy (PT) can spare all or part of the lens due to accurate dose deposition. We investigated whether a lens-sparing approach was relevant to avoid cataracts in uveal melanoma patients. Patients were referred for PT from onco-ophthalmologists of private and academic institutions. Patients without preexisting cataracts or implants were entered in a prospective database. Dose thresholds responsible for cataracts were investigated in volumes of lens or lens periphery. Lens opacifications and de novo vision-impairing cataracts (VICs) had biannual follow up by ophthalmologists blinded to lens dose. Correlations between dose-volume relationships and VICs were assessed using univariate/multivariate regressions. Between 1991 and 2015, 1696 uveal melanoma patients were consecutively treated with PT. After a median follow up of 48 months, 14.4% and 8.7% of patients had cataracts and VIC within median times of 19 and 28 months, respectively. Median values of mean lens and lens periphery doses were 1.1 (radiobiologically effective [RBE] dose in photon-equivalent grays [GyRBE]) and 6.5 GyRBE, respectively. The lens received no dose in 25% of the patients. At an irradiated lens volume of ≤5%, there was no significantly increased risk for VIC below a dose of 10 GyRBE. A lens-sparing approach is feasible and results not only in reduced need for cataract surgery but also in better fundus-based tumor control. Reassessment of radioprotection rules for lens dose thresholds may follow.

Downregulation of GbpB, a Component of the VicRK Regulon, Affects Biofilm Formation and Cell Surface Characteristics of Streptococcus mutans▿ †

PubMed Central

Duque, Cristiane; Stipp, Rafael N.; Wang, Bing; Smith, Daniel J.; Höfling, José F.; Kuramitsu, Howard K.; Duncan, Margaret J.; Mattos-Graner, Renata O.

2011-01-01

The virulence of the dental caries pathogen Streptococcus mutans relies in part on the sucrose-dependent synthesis of and interaction with glucan, a major component of the extracellular matrix of tooth biofilms. However, the mechanisms by which secreted and/or cell-associated glucan-binding proteins (Gbps) produced by S. mutans participate in biofilm growth remain to be elucidated. In this study, we further investigate GbpB, an essential immunodominant protein with similarity to murein hydrolases. A conditional knockdown mutant that expressed gbpB antisense RNA under the control of a tetracycline-inducible promoter was constructed in strain UA159 (UACA2) and used to investigate the effects of GbpB depletion on biofilm formation and cell surface-associated characteristics. Additionally, regulation of gbpB by the two-component system VicRK was investigated, and phenotypic analysis of a vicK mutant (UAvicK) was performed. GbpB was directly regulated by VicR, and several phenotypic changes were comparable between UACA2 and UAvicK, although differences between these strains existed. It was established that GbpB depletion impaired initial phases of sucrose-dependent biofilm formation, while exogenous native GbpB partially restored the biofilm phenotype. Several cellular traits were significantly affected by GbpB depletion, including altered cell shape, decreased autolysis, increased cell hydrophobicity, and sensitivity to antibiotics and osmotic and oxidative stresses. These data provide the first experimental evidence for GbpB participation in sucrose-dependent biofilm formation and in cell surface properties. PMID:21078847

Analyzing the uncertainty of ensemble-based gridded observations in land surface simulations and drought assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid

2017-12-01

Hydrologic modeling is one of the primary tools utilized for drought monitoring and drought early warning systems. Several sources of uncertainty in hydrologic modeling have been addressed in the literature. However, few studies have assessed the uncertainty of gridded observation datasets from a drought monitoring perspective. This study provides a hydrologic modeling oriented analysis of the gridded observation data uncertainties over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and its implications on drought assessment. We utilized a recently developed 100-member ensemble-based observed forcing data to simulate hydrologic fluxes at 1/8° spatial resolution using Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and compared the results with a deterministic observation. Meteorological and hydrological droughts are studied at multiple timescales over the basin, and seasonal long-term trends and variations of drought extent is investigated for each case. Results reveal large uncertainty of observed datasets at monthly timescale, with systematic differences for temperature records, mainly due to different lapse rates. The uncertainty eventuates in large disparities of drought characteristics. In general, an increasing trend is found for winter drought extent across the PNW. Furthermore, a ∼3% decrease per decade is detected for snow water equivalent (SWE) over the PNW, with the region being more susceptible to SWE variations of the northern Rockies than the western Cascades. The agricultural areas of southern Idaho demonstrate decreasing trend of natural soil moisture as a result of precipitation decline, which implies higher appeal for anthropogenic water storage and irrigation systems.

Molecular sled is an eleven-amino acid vehicle facilitating biochemical interactions via sliding components along DNA

DOE PAGES

Mangel, Walter F.; McGrath, William J.; Xiong, Kan; ...

2016-02-02

Recently, we showed the adenovirus proteinase interacts productively with its protein substrates in vitro and in vivo in nascent virus particles via one-dimensional diffusion along the viral DNA. The mechanism by which this occurs has heretofore been unknown. We show sliding of these proteins along DNA occurs on a new vehicle in molecular biology, a ‘molecular sled’ named pVIc. This 11-amino acid viral peptide binds to DNA independent of sequence. pVIc slides on DNA, exhibiting the fastest one-dimensional diffusion constant, 26±1.8 × 10 6 (bp) 2 s −1. pVIc is a ‘molecular sled,’ because it can slide heterologous cargos along DNA,more » for example, a streptavidin tetramer. Similar peptides, for example, from the C terminus of β-actin or NLSIII of the p53 protein, slide along DNA. Finally, characteristics of the ‘molecular sled’ in its milieu (virion, nucleus) have implications for how proteins in the nucleus of cells interact and imply a new form of biochemistry, one-dimensional biochemistry.« less

Development and implementation of an expert system to improve the control of nitrification and denitrification in the Vic wastewater treatment plant.

PubMed

Ribas, F; Rodríguez-Roda, I; Serrat, J; Clara, P; Comas, J

2008-05-01

Wastewater treatment plants employ various physical, chemical and biological processes to reduce pollutants from raw wastewater. One of the most important is the biological nitrogen removal process through nitrification and denitrification steps taking place in various sections of the biological reactor. One of the most extensively used configurations to achieve the biological nitrogen removal is an activated sludge system using oxidation ditch or extended aeration. To improve nitrogen removal in the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) of Vic (Catalonia, NE Spain), the automatic aeration control system was complemented with an Expert System to always provide the most appropriate aeration or anoxia sequence based on the values of ammonium and nitrates given by an automatic analyzer. This article illustrates the development and implementation of this knowledge-based system within the framework of a Decision Support System, which performs SCADA functions. The paper also shows that the application of the decision support system in the Vic WWTP resulted in significant improvements to the biological nitrogen removal.

Effects of Climate Change on Extreme Streamflow Risks in the Olympic National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tohver, I. M.; Lee, S.; Hamlet, A.

2011-12-01

Conventionally, natural resource management practices are designed within the framework that past conditions serve as a baseline for future conditions. However, the warmer future climate projected for the Pacific Northwest will alter the region's flood and low flow risks, posing considerable challenges to resource managers in the Olympic National Forest (ONF) and Olympic National Park (ONP). Shifts in extreme streamflow will influence two key management objectives in the ONF and ONP: the protection of wildlife and the maintenance of road infrastructure. The ONF is charged with managing habitat for species listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), and with maintaining the network of forest roads and culverts. Climate-induced increases in flood severity will introduce additional challenges in road and culvert design. Furthermore, the aging road infrastructure and more extreme summer low flows will compromise aquatic habitats, intrinsic to the health of threatened and endangered fish species listed under the ESA. Current practice uses estimates of Q100 (or the peak flow with an estimated 100 year return frequency) as the standard metric for stream crossing design. Simple regression models relating annual precipitation and basin area to Q100 are used in the design process. Low flow estimates are based on historical streamflow data to calculate the 7-day consecutive lowest flow with a 10-year return interval, or 7Q10. Under the projections a changing climate, these methods for estimating extreme flows are ill equipped to capture the complex and spatially varying effects of seasonal changes in temperature, precipitation, and snowpack on extreme flow risk. As an alternative approach, this study applies a physically-based hydrologic model to estimate historical and future flood risk at 1/16th degree (latitude/longitude) resolution (about 32 km2). We downscaled climate data derived from 10 global climate models to use as input for the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, a macro-scale hydrologic model, which simulates various hydrologic variables at a daily time step. Using the VIC estimates for baseflow and run-off, we calculated Q100 and 7Q10 for the historical period and under two emission scenarios, A1B and B1, at three future time intervals: the 2020s, the 2040s and the 2080s. We also calculated Q100 and 7Q10 at the spatial scale of the 12-digit hydrologic unit codes (HUCs) as delineated by the United States Geologic Survey. The results demonstrate the sensitivity of snowpack at mid-elevation basins to a warmer climate, resulting in more severe winter flooding and lower streamflows in the summertime. These ensemble estimates of extreme streamflows will serve as a tool for management practices by providing high-resolution maps of changing risk over the ONF and ONP.

Comparing evapotranspiration from Eddy covariance measurements, water budgets, remote sensing, and land surface models over Canada a, b

DOE PAGES

Wang, Shusen; Pan, Ming; Mu, Qiaozhen; ...

2015-07-29

Here, this study compares six evapotranspiration ET products for Canada's landmass, namely, eddy covariance EC measurements; surface water budget ET; remote sensing ET from MODIS; and land surface model (LSM) ET from the Community Land Model (CLM), the Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations (EALCO) model, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). The ET climatology over the Canadian landmass is characterized and the advantages and limitations of the datasets are discussed. The EC measurements have limited spatial coverage, making it difficult for model validations at the national scale. Water budget ET has the largest uncertainty because of datamore » quality issues with precipitation in mountainous regions and in the north. MODIS ET shows relatively large uncertainty in cold seasons and sparsely vegetated regions. The LSM products cover the entire landmass and exhibit small differences in ET among them. Annual ET from the LSMs ranges from small negative values to over 600 mm across the landmass, with a countrywide average of 256 ± 15 mm. Seasonally, the countrywide average monthly ET varies from a low of about 3 mm in four winter months (November-February) to 67 ± 7 mm in July. The ET uncertainty is scale dependent. Larger regions tend to have smaller uncertainties because of the offset of positive and negative biases within the region. More observation networks and better quality controls are critical to improving ET estimates. Future techniques should also consider a hybrid approach that integrates strengths of the various ET products to help reduce uncertainties in ET estimation.« less

Improved vegetation parameterization for hydrological model and assessment of land cover change impacts on flow regime of the Upper Bhima basin, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohaideen, M. M. Diwan; Varija, K.

2018-05-01

This study investigates the potential and applicability of variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model to simulate different hydrological components of the Upper Bhima basin under two different Land Use Land Cover (LULC) (the year 2000 and 2010) conditions. The total drainage area of the basin was discretized into 1694 grids of about 5.5 km by 5.5 km: accordingly the model parameters were calibrated at each grid level. Vegetation parameters for the model were prepared using temporal profile of Leaf Area Index (LAI) from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and LULC. This practice provides a methodological framework for the improved vegetation parameterization along with region-specific condition for the model simulation. The calibrated and validated model was run using the two LULC conditions separately with the same observed meteorological forcing (1996-2001) and soil data. The change in LULC has resulted to an increase in the average annual evapotranspiration over the basin by 7.8%, while the average annual surface runoff and baseflow decreased by 18.86 and 5.83%, respectively. The variability in hydrological components and the spatial variation of each component attributed to LULC were assessed at the basin grid level. It was observed that 80% of the basin grids showed an increase in evapotranspiration (ET) (maximum of 292 mm). While the majority of the grids showed a decrease in surface runoff and baseflow, some of the grids showed an increase (i.e. 21 and 15% of total grids—surface runoff and baseflow, respectively).

Modeling evapotranspiration over China's landmass from 1979-2012 using three surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Shaobo; Chen, Baozhang; Zhang, Huifang; Lin, Xiaofeng

2017-04-01

Land surface models (LSMs) are useful tools to estimate land evapotranspiration at a grid scale and for a long-term applications. Here, the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4.0), Dynamic Land Model (DLM) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model were driven with observation-based forcing data sets, and a multiple LSM ensemble-averaged evapotranspiration (ET) product (LSMs-ET) was developed and its spatial-temporal variations were analyzed for the China landmass over the period 1979-2012. Evaluations against measurements from nine flux towers at site scale and surface water budget based ET at regional scale showed that the LSMs-ET had good performance in most areas of China's landmass. The inter-comparisons between the ET estimates and the independent ET products from remote sensing and upscaling methods suggested that there were a fairly consistent patterns between each data sets. The LSMs-ET produced a mean annual ET of 351.24±10.7 mm yr-1 over 1979-2012, and its spatial-temporal variation analyses showed that (i) there was an overall significant ET increasing trend, with a value of 0.72 mm yr-1 (p < 0.01); (ii) 36.01% of Chinese land had significant increasing trends, ranging from 1 to 9 mm yr-1, while only 6.41% of the area showed significant decreasing trends, ranging from -6.28 to -0.08 mm yr-1. Analyses of ET variations in each climate region clearly showed that the Tibetan Plateau areas were the main contributors to the overall increasing ET trends of China.

Comparing evapotranspiration from Eddy covariance measurements, water budgets, remote sensing, and land surface models over Canada a, b

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Shusen; Pan, Ming; Mu, Qiaozhen

Here, this study compares six evapotranspiration ET products for Canada's landmass, namely, eddy covariance EC measurements; surface water budget ET; remote sensing ET from MODIS; and land surface model (LSM) ET from the Community Land Model (CLM), the Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations (EALCO) model, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). The ET climatology over the Canadian landmass is characterized and the advantages and limitations of the datasets are discussed. The EC measurements have limited spatial coverage, making it difficult for model validations at the national scale. Water budget ET has the largest uncertainty because of datamore » quality issues with precipitation in mountainous regions and in the north. MODIS ET shows relatively large uncertainty in cold seasons and sparsely vegetated regions. The LSM products cover the entire landmass and exhibit small differences in ET among them. Annual ET from the LSMs ranges from small negative values to over 600 mm across the landmass, with a countrywide average of 256 ± 15 mm. Seasonally, the countrywide average monthly ET varies from a low of about 3 mm in four winter months (November-February) to 67 ± 7 mm in July. The ET uncertainty is scale dependent. Larger regions tend to have smaller uncertainties because of the offset of positive and negative biases within the region. More observation networks and better quality controls are critical to improving ET estimates. Future techniques should also consider a hybrid approach that integrates strengths of the various ET products to help reduce uncertainties in ET estimation.« less

Glacier stagnant in central Karakorum during 2003 to 2008 derived from DEOS Mass Transport Model GRACE data and one monthly degree-day model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaowen; Zhang, Shiqiang; Xu, Junli

2016-10-01

Glacier change in central Karakorum is known as `anomony' in the late 1990s, where many glaciers expanded and numbers of glacier surged while most of glaciers in the Greater Himalaya rapidly retreated. However, the understanding of glacier change in this region is still poor. Glacier changes for the Hunza river basin (HRB) in central Karakorum during 2003 to 2008 were investigated from different data sources. The mass variation in HRB were estimated from the DEOS Mass Transport Model (DMT-1) GRACE data and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and compared with the simulated glacier mass balance by one monthly degree-day model. The surface elevation difference of glaciers between ASTER DEM and SRTM were calculated. The mass variations from GRACE data suggest that the glacier mass balance in HRB during 2003-2007 has no clear trend. The cumulative mass balance is positive during 2003-2008. The average glacier surface elevation difference between SRTM DEM and ASTER DEM is 11.8+/-3.2 m. The average differences of glacier surface elevation of Batura glaciers in accumulation zones is increased with 0.88m.a-1, These results indicate that there is no significant glacier retreat during 1999 to 2008. The seasonal amplitude of simulated mass variation of the monthly degree-day model agreed well with that estimated from DMT-1 GRACE data, but the simulated glacier accumulation is less than that calculated from GRACE data. The main reason probably lies in that the precipitation of glaciers and ungalciated areas were underestimated, especially in alpine areas.

A Simple Model of Circuit Design.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-05-01

mathematicians who discover mathematical ideas (i.cnat>, programmers who write code <Manna> <Barstow>, physicists who solve mechanics problems <de Kiecr-l...rules and shows how - they result in the design of circuits. ’l’he design rules must not only capture the purely mathematical constralints given by VICs...K VI.. *? and KCI, but also how those constraints can implement mechanism. Mathematical constraints tell us an amplifier’s input and output voltages

Fast food purchasing and access to fast food restaurants: a multilevel analysis of VicLANES

PubMed Central

Thornton, Lukar E; Bentley, Rebecca J; Kavanagh, Anne M

2009-01-01

Background While previous research on fast food access and purchasing has not found evidence of an association, these studies have had methodological problems including aggregation error, lack of specificity between the exposures and outcomes, and lack of adjustment for potential confounding. In this paper we attempt to address these methodological problems using data from the Victorian Lifestyle and Neighbourhood Environments Study (VicLANES) – a cross-sectional multilevel study conducted within metropolitan Melbourne, Australia in 2003. Methods The VicLANES data used in this analysis included 2547 participants from 49 census collector districts in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. The outcome of interest was the total frequency of fast food purchased for consumption at home within the previous month (never, monthly and weekly) from five major fast food chains (Red Rooster, McDonalds, Kentucky Fried Chicken, Hungry Jacks and Pizza Hut). Three measures of fast food access were created: density and variety, defined as the number of fast food restaurants and the number of different fast food chains within 3 kilometres of road network distance respectively, and proximity defined as the road network distance to the closest fast food restaurant. Multilevel multinomial models were used to estimate the associations between fast food restaurant access and purchasing with never purchased as the reference category. Models were adjusted for confounders including determinants of demand (attitudes and tastes that influence food purchasing decisions) as well as individual and area socio-economic characteristics. Results Purchasing fast food on a monthly basis was related to the variety of fast food restaurants (odds ratio 1.13; 95% confidence interval 1.02 – 1.25) after adjusting for individual and area characteristics. Density and proximity were not found to be significant predictors of fast food purchasing after adjustment for individual socio-economic predictors. Conclusion Although we found an independent association between fast food purchasing and access to a wider variety of fast food restaurant, density and proximity were not significant predictors. The methods used in our study are an advance on previous analyses. PMID:19473503

Breath-hold [68Ga]DOTA-TOC PET/CT in neuroendocrine tumors: detection of additional lesions and effects on quantitative parameters.

PubMed

Zirnsak, Mariana; Bärwolf, Robert; Freesmeyer, Martin

2016-11-08

Respiratory motion during PET/CT acquisition generates artifacts in the form of breath-related blurring, which influences the lesion detectability and diagnostic accuracy. The goal of this study was to verify whether breath-hold [68Ga]DOTA-TOC PET/CT (bhPET) allows detection of additional foci compared to free-breathing PET/CT (fbPET), and to assess the impact of breath-holding on standard uptake values (SUV) and isocontoured volume (Vic40) in patients with neuroendocrine tumors (NET). Patients with NET (n=39) were included in this study. BhPET and fbPET characteristics of 96 lesions were compared, and correlated with standard contrast-enhanced (ce) CT and MRI for lesion verification. Quantitative parameters SUV (max and mean) and Vic40 were assessed for both methods and evaluated by linear regression and Spearman's correlation. The impact of lesion size, localization and time interval between investigations was also analyzed. bhPET identified one additional metastasis not seen at fbPET but visible at ceMRI. Another additional bhPET focus did not have a morphological correlate. At bhPET, the SUVmax and SUVmean proved significantly higher and the Vic40 significantly lower than at fbPET. Lesion size, localization and time intervals did not impact significantly on SUV or Vic40. Currently, routine use of breath-hold [68Ga]DOTA-TOC PET/CT cannot be recommended as only one additional lesion was identified. Therefore, bhPET has currently no indication in patients with NET. If technical improvements regarding PET/CT scanner sensitivity are available, bhPET should be reevaluated in the future.

Spatial expression of components of a calcitonin receptor-like receptor (CRL) signalling system (CRL, calcitonin gene-related peptide, adrenomedullin, adrenomedullin-2/intermedin) in mouse and human heart valves.

PubMed

Pfeil, Uwe; Bharathala, Subhashini; Murtaza, Ghulam; Mermer, Petra; Papadakis, Tamara; Boening, Andreas; Kummer, Wolfgang

2016-12-01

Heart valves are highly organized structures determining the direction of blood flow through the heart. Smooth muscle cells within the valve are thought to play an active role during the heart cycle, rather than being just passive flaps. The mature heart valve is composed of extracellular matrix (ECM), various differentiations of valvular interstitial cells (VIC), smooth muscle cells and overlying endothelium. VIC are important for maintaining the structural integrity of the valve, thereby affecting valve function and ECM remodelling. Accumulating evidence suggests an important role of calcitonin receptor-like receptor (CRL) signalling in preventing heart damage under several pathological conditions. Thus we investigate the existence of a putative CRL signalling system in mouse and human heart valves by real-time RT-PCR, laser-assisted microdissection, immunofluorescence and NADPH-diaphorase histochemistry. Mouse and human heart valves expressed mRNAs for the CRL ligands adrenomedullin (AM), adrenomedullin-2 (AM-2) and calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) and for their receptor components, i.e., CRL and receptor-activity-modifying proteins 1-3. Immunofluorescence analysis revealed AM-, AM-2- and CRL-immunolabelling in endothelial cells and VIC, whereas CGRP immunoreactivity was restricted to nerve fibres and some endothelial cells. Nitric oxide synthase activity, as demonstrated by NADPH-diaphorase histochemistry, was shown mainly in valvular endothelial cells in mice, whereas in human aortic valves, VIC and smooth muscle cells were positive. Our results showed the presence of an intrinsic AM/AM-2/CGRP signalling system in murine and human heart valves with distinct cellular localization, suggesting its involvement in the regulation of valve stiffness and ECM production and turnover.

Assessing the Agricultural Vulnerability for India under Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Tarul; Vardhan Murari, Harsha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Singh, Jitendra

2016-04-01

Global climate change has proven to show majorly negative impacts for the far future. These negative impacts adversely affect almost all the fields including agriculture, water resources, tourism, and marine ecosystem. Among these, the effects on agriculture are considered to be of prime importance since its regional impacts can directly affect the global food security. Under such lines, it becomes essential to understand how climate change directs agricultural production for a region along with its vulnerability. In India, rice and wheat are considered as major staple diet and hence understanding its production loss/gain due to regional vulnerability to climate change becomes necessary. Here, an attempt has been made to understand the agricultural vulnerability for rice and wheat, considering yield as a function of temperature and precipitation during growing period. In order to accomplish this objective, the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration has been considered which serves as a reliable indicator; with more this ratio towards unity, less vulnerable will be the region. The current objective needs an integration of climatic, hydrological and agricultural parameters; that can be achieved by simulating a climate data driven hydrologic (Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC) model and a crop (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT) model. The proposed framework is an attempt to derive a crop vulnerability map that can facilitate in strategizing adaption practices which can reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in future.

Characterizing the utility of the TMPA real-time product for hydrologic predictions over global river basins across scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, H.; Zhang, S.; Nijssen, B.; Zhou, T.; Voisin, N.; Sheffield, J.; Lee, K.; Shukla, S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

Despite its errors and uncertainties, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis real-time product (TMPA-RT) has been widely used for hydrological monitoring and forecasting due to its timely availability for real-time applications. To evaluate the utility of TMPA-RT in hydrologic predictions, many studies have compared modeled streamflows driven by TMPA-RT against gauge data. However, because of the limited availability of streamflow observations in data sparse regions, there is still a lack of comprehensive comparisons for TMPA-RT based hydrologic predictions at the global scale. Furthermore, it is expected that its skill is less optimal at the subbasin scale than the basin scale. In this study, we evaluate and characterize the utility of the TMPA-RT product over selected global river basins during the period of 1998 to 2015 using the TMPA research product (TMPA-RP) as a reference. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which was calibrated and validated previously, is adopted to simulate streamflows driven by TMPA-RT and TMPA-RP, respectively. The objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of the hydrologic predictions by answering the following questions: (1) How do the precipitation errors associated with the TMPA-RT product transform into streamflow errors with respect to geographical and climatological characteristics? (2) How do streamflow errors vary across scales within a basin?

Groundwater Variability Across Temporal and Spatial Scales in the Central and Northeastern U.S.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Bailing; Rodell, Matthew; Famiglietti, James S.

2015-01-01

Depth-to-water measurements from 181 monitoring wells in unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in nine regions of the central and northeastern U.S. were analyzed. Groundwater storage exhibited strong seasonal variations in all regions, with peaks in spring and lows in autumn, and its interannual variability was nearly unbounded, such that the impacts of droughts, floods, and excessive pumping could persist for many years. We found that the spatial variability of groundwater storage anomalies (deviations from the long term mean) increases as a power function of extent scale (square root of area). That relationship, which is linear on a log-log graph, is common to other hydrological variables but had never before been shown with groundwater data. We describe how the derived power function can be used to determine the number of wells needed to estimate regional mean groundwater storage anomalies with a desired level of accuracy, or to assess uncertainty in regional mean estimates from a set number of observations. We found that the spatial variability of groundwater storage anomalies within a region often increases with the absolute value of the regional mean anomaly, the opposite of the relationship between soil moisture spatial variability and mean. Recharge (drainage from the lowest model soil layer) simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was compatible with observed monthly groundwater storage anomalies and month-to-month changes in groundwater storage.

Climate change impacts on water availability in the Red River Basin and critical areas for future water conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamani Sabzi, H.; Moreno, H. A.; Neeson, T. M.; Rosendahl, D. H.; Bertrand, D.; Xue, X.; Hong, Y.; Kellog, W.; Mcpherson, R. A.; Hudson, C.; Austin, B. N.

2017-12-01

Previous periods of severe drought followed by exceptional flooding in the Red River Basin (RRB) have significantly affected industry, agriculture, and the environment in the region. Therefore, projecting how climate may change in the future and being prepared for potential impacts on the RRB is crucially important. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on water availability across the RRB. We used three down-scaled global climate models and three potential greenhouse gas emission scenarios to assess precipitation, temperature, streamflow and lake levels throughout the RRB from 1961 to 2099 at a spatial resolution of 1/10°. Unit-area runoff and streamflow were obtained using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model applied across the entire basin. We found that most models predict less precipitation in the western side of the basin and more in the eastern side. In terms of temperature, the models predict that average temperature could increase as much as 6°C. Most models project slightly more precipitation and streamflow values in the future, specifically in the eastern side of the basin. Finally, we analyzed the projected meteorological and hydrologic parameters alongside regional water demand for different sectors to identify the areas on the RRB that will need water-environmental conservation actions in the future. These hotspots of future low water availability are locations where regional environmental managers, water policy makers, and the agricultural and industrial sectors must proactively prepare to deal with declining water availability over the coming decades.

Integrated groundwater resource management in Indus Basin using satellite gravimetry and physical modeling tools.

PubMed

Iqbal, Naveed; Hossain, Faisal; Lee, Hyongki; Akhter, Gulraiz

2017-03-01

Reliable and frequent information on groundwater behavior and dynamics is very important for effective groundwater resource management at appropriate spatial scales. This information is rarely available in developing countries and thus poses a challenge for groundwater managers. The in situ data and groundwater modeling tools are limited in their ability to cover large domains. Remote sensing technology can now be used to continuously collect information on hydrological cycle in a cost-effective way. This study evaluates the effectiveness of a remote sensing integrated physical modeling approach for groundwater management in Indus Basin. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Satellite (GRACE)-based gravity anomalies from 2003 to 2010 were processed to generate monthly groundwater storage changes using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The groundwater storage is the key parameter of interest for groundwater resource management. The spatial and temporal patterns in groundwater storage (GWS) are useful for devising the appropriate groundwater management strategies. GRACE-estimated GWS information with large-scale coverage is valuable for basin-scale monitoring and decision making. This frequently available information is found useful for the identification of groundwater recharge areas, groundwater storage depletion, and pinpointing of the areas where groundwater sustainability is at risk. The GWS anomalies were found to favorably agree with groundwater model simulations from Visual MODFLOW and in situ data. Mostly, a moderate to severe GWS depletion is observed causing a vulnerable situation to the sustainability of this groundwater resource. For the sustainable groundwater management, the region needs to implement groundwater policies and adopt water conservation techniques.

Intelligence and Electronic Warfare (IEW) Streamlining Project. Volume 3. Reference Documentation (Part 3)

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-09-01

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In situ elasticity modulation with dynamic substrates to direct cell phenotype

PubMed Central

Kloxin, April M.; Benton, Julie A.; Anseth, Kristi S.

2009-01-01

Microenvironment elasticity influences critical cell functions such as differentiation, cytoskeletal organization, and process extension. Unfortunately, few materials allow elasticity modulation in real-time to probe its direct effect on these dynamic cellular processes. Here, a new approach is presented for the photochemical modulation of elasticity within the cell's microenvironment at any point in time. A photodegradable hydrogel was irradiated and degraded under cytocompatible conditions to generate a wide range of elastic moduli similar to soft tissues and characterized using rheometry and atomic force microscopy (AFM). The effect of the elastic modulus on valvular interstitial cell (VIC) activation into myofibroblasts was explored. In these studies, gradient samples were used to identify moduli that either promote or suppress VIC myofibroblastic activation. With this knowledge, VICs were cultured on a high modulus, activating hydrogel substrate, and uniquely, results show that decreasing the substrate modulus with irradiation reverses this activation, demonstrating that myofibroblasts can be de-activated solely by changing the modulus of the underlying substrate. This finding is important for the rational design of biomaterials for tissue regeneration and offers insight into fibrotic disease progression. These photodegradable hydrogels demonstrate the capability to both probe and direct cell function through dynamic changes in substrate elasticity. PMID:19788947

Active remote sensing of snow using NMM3D/DMRT and comparison with CLPX II airborne data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xu, X.; Liang, D.; Tsang, L.; Andreadis, K.M.; Josberger, E.G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Cline, D.W.; Yueh, S.H.

2010-01-01

We applied the Numerical Maxwell Model of three-dimensional simulations (NMM3D) in the Dense Media Radiative Theory (DMRT) to calculate backscattering coefficients. The particles' positions are computer-generated and the subsequent Foldy-Lax equations solved numerically. The phase matrix in NMM3D has significant cross-polarization, particularly when the particles are densely packed. The NMM3D model is combined with DMRT in calculating the microwave scattering by dry snow. The NMM3D/DMRT equations are solved by an iterative solution up to the second order in the case of small to moderate optical thickness. The numerical results of NMM3D/DMRT are illustrated and compared with QCA/DMRT. The QCA/DMRT and NMM3D/DMRT results are also applied to compare with data from two specific datasets from the second Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX II) in Alaska and Colorado. The data are obtained at the Ku-band (13.95 GHz) observations using airborne imaging polarimetric scatterometer (POLSCAT). It is shown that the model predictions agree with the field measurements for both co-polarization and cross-polarization. For the Alaska region, the average snow depth and snow density are used as the inputs for DMRT. The grain size, selected from within the range of the ground measurements, is used as a best-fit parameter within the range. For the Colorado region, we use the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model (VIC) to obtain the input snow profiles for NMM3D/DMRT. ?? 2010 IEEE.

Customer-oriented Data Formats and Services for Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) Products at the NASA GES DISC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fang, Hongliang; Beaudoing, Hiroko; Rodell, Matthew; Teng, BIll; Vollmer, Bruce

2008-01-01

The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) is generating a series of land surface state (e.g., soil moisture and surface temperature) and flux (e.g., evaporation and sensible heat flux) products simulated by four land surface Models (CLM, Mosaic, Noah and VIC). These products are now accessible at the Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC), a component of NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GESDISC).

Climate Change Impacts on Stream Temperature in Regulated River Systems: A Case Study in the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Y.; Niemeyer, R. J.; Zhang, X.; Yearsley, J. R.; Voisin, N.; Nijssen, B.

2017-12-01

Climate change and associated changes in air temperature and precipitation are projected to impact natural water resources quantity, quality and timing. In the past century, over 280 major dams were built in the Southeastern United States (SEUS) (GRanD database). Regulation of the river system greatly alters natural streamflow as well as stream temperature. Understanding the impacts of climate change on regulated systems, particularly within the context of the Clean Water Act, can inform stakeholders how to maintain and adapt water operations (e.g. regulation, withdrawals). In this study, we use a new modeling framework to study climate change impacts on stream temperatures of a regulated river system. We simulate runoff with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model, regulated streamflow and reservoir operations with a large-scale river routing-reservoir model (MOSART-WM), and stream temperature using the River Basin Model (RBM). We enhanced RBM with a two-layer thermal stratification reservoir module. This modeling framework captures both the impact of reservoir regulation on streamflow and the reservoir stratification effects on downstream temperatures. We evaluate changes in flow and stream temperatures based on climate projections from two representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We simulate river temperature with meteorological forcings that have been downscaled with the Multivariate Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. We are specifically interested in analyzing extreme periods during which stream temperature exceeds water quality standards. In this study, we focus on identifying whether these extreme temperature periods coincide with low flows, and whether the frequency and duration of these operationally-relevant periods will increase under future climate change.

Implications of Dynamic Loading and Changing Climate on Mercury Bioaccumulation in a Planktivorous Fish (Orthodon microlepidotus)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carroll, R. W. H.; Flickinger, A.; Warwick, J. J.; Schumer, R.

2015-12-01

A bioenergetic and mercury (Hg) mass balance (BioHg) model is developed for the Sacramento blackfish (Orthodon microlepidotus), a filter feeding cyprinid found in northern California and Nevada. Attention focuses on the Lahontan Reservoir in northern Nevada, which receives a strong temporally varying load of dissolved methylmercury (DMeHg) from the Carson River. Hg loads are the result of contaminated bank erosion during high flows and diffusion from bottom sediments during low flows. Coupling of dynamic reservoir loading with periods of maximum plankton growth and maximum fish consumption rates are required to explain the largest body burdens observed in the planktivore. In contrast, the large body burdens cannot be achieved using average water column concentrations. The United States Bureau of Reclamation has produced future streamflow estimates for 2000-2099 using 112 CMIP3 climate projections and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. These are used to drive a fully dynamic Hg transport model to assess changes in contaminant loading to the reservoir and implications on planktivorous bioaccumulation. Model results suggest the future loads of DMeHg entering the Lahontan Reservoir will decrease most significantly in the spring and summer due to channel width increases and depth decreases in the Carson River which reduce bank erosion over the century. The modeled concentrations of DMeHg in the reservoir are expected to increase during the summer due to a decrease in reservoir volume affecting the concentrations more than the decrease in loads, and the model results show that bioaccumulation levels may increase in the upstream sections of the reservoir while maintaining contamination levels above the federal action limit for human consumption in the lower reservoir.

On the Dominant Factor Controlling Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in China

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Xuejun; Tang, Qiuhong; Leng, Guoyong; ...

2017-11-20

Initial conditions (ICs) and climate forecasts (CFs) are the two primary sources of seasonal hydrological forecast skill. However, their relative contribution to predictive skill remains unclear in China. In this study, we investigate the relative roles of ICs and CFs in cumulative runoff (CR) and soil moisture (SM) forecasts using 31-year (1980–2010) ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) and reverse-ESP (revESP) simulations with the Variable Capacity Infiltration (VIC) hydrologic model. The results show that the relative importance of ICs and CFs largely depends on climate regimes. The influence of ICs is stronger in a dry or wet-to-dry climate regime that covers themore » northern and western interior regions during the late fall to early summer. In particular, ICs may dominate the forecast skill for up to three months or even six months during late fall and winter months, probably due to the low precipitation value and variability in the dry period. In contrast, CFs become more important for most of southern China or during summer months. The impact of ICs on SM forecasts tends to cover larger domains than on CR forecasts. These findings will greatly benefit future work that will target efforts towards improving current forecast levels for the particular regions and forecast periods.« less

On the Dominant Factor Controlling Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Xuejun; Tang, Qiuhong; Leng, Guoyong

Initial conditions (ICs) and climate forecasts (CFs) are the two primary sources of seasonal hydrological forecast skill. However, their relative contribution to predictive skill remains unclear in China. In this study, we investigate the relative roles of ICs and CFs in cumulative runoff (CR) and soil moisture (SM) forecasts using 31-year (1980–2010) ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) and reverse-ESP (revESP) simulations with the Variable Capacity Infiltration (VIC) hydrologic model. The results show that the relative importance of ICs and CFs largely depends on climate regimes. The influence of ICs is stronger in a dry or wet-to-dry climate regime that covers themore » northern and western interior regions during the late fall to early summer. In particular, ICs may dominate the forecast skill for up to three months or even six months during late fall and winter months, probably due to the low precipitation value and variability in the dry period. In contrast, CFs become more important for most of southern China or during summer months. The impact of ICs on SM forecasts tends to cover larger domains than on CR forecasts. These findings will greatly benefit future work that will target efforts towards improving current forecast levels for the particular regions and forecast periods.« less

An online tool for Operational Probabilistic Drought Forecasting System (OPDFS): a Statistical-Dynamical Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarekarizi, M.; Moradkhani, H.; Yan, H.

2017-12-01

The Operational Probabilistic Drought Forecasting System (OPDFS) is an online tool recently developed at Portland State University for operational agricultural drought forecasting. This is an integrated statistical-dynamical framework issuing probabilistic drought forecasts monthly for the lead times of 1, 2, and 3 months. The statistical drought forecasting method utilizes copula functions in order to condition the future soil moisture values on the antecedent states. Due to stochastic nature of land surface properties, the antecedent soil moisture states are uncertain; therefore, data assimilation system based on Particle Filtering (PF) is employed to quantify the uncertainties associated with the initial condition of the land state, i.e. soil moisture. PF assimilates the satellite soil moisture data to Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model and ultimately updates the simulated soil moisture. The OPDFS builds on the NOAA's seasonal drought outlook by offering drought probabilities instead of qualitative ordinal categories and provides the user with the probability maps associated with a particular drought category. A retrospective assessment of the OPDFS showed that the forecasting of the 2012 Great Plains and 2014 California droughts were possible at least one month in advance. The OPDFS offers a timely assistance to water managers, stakeholders and decision-makers to develop resilience against uncertain upcoming droughts.

Multi-model ensemble hydrological simulation using a BP Neural Network for the upper Yalongjiang River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhanjie; Yu, Jingshan; Xu, Xinyi; Sun, Wenchao; Pang, Bo; Yue, Jiajia

2018-06-01

Hydrological models are important and effective tools for detecting complex hydrological processes. Different models have different strengths when capturing the various aspects of hydrological processes. Relying on a single model usually leads to simulation uncertainties. Ensemble approaches, based on multi-model hydrological simulations, can improve application performance over single models. In this study, the upper Yalongjiang River Basin was selected for a case study. Three commonly used hydrological models (SWAT, VIC, and BTOPMC) were selected and used for independent simulations with the same input and initial values. Then, the BP neural network method was employed to combine the results from the three models. The results show that the accuracy of BP ensemble simulation is better than that of the single models.

What Makes Hydrologic Models Differ? Using SUMMA to Systematically Explore Model Uncertainty and Error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, A.; Nijssen, B.; Chegwidden, O.; Wood, A.; Clark, M. P.

2017-12-01

Model intercomparison experiments have been conducted to quantify the variability introduced during the model development process, but have had limited success in identifying the sources of this model variability. The Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) has been developed as a framework which defines a general set of conservation equations for mass and energy as well as a common core of numerical solvers along with the ability to set options for choosing between different spatial discretizations and flux parameterizations. SUMMA can be thought of as a framework for implementing meta-models which allows for the investigation of the impacts of decisions made during the model development process. Through this flexibility we develop a hierarchy of definitions which allows for models to be compared to one another. This vocabulary allows us to define the notion of weak equivalence between model instantiations. Through this weak equivalence we develop the concept of model mimicry, which can be used to investigate the introduction of uncertainty and error during the modeling process as well as provide a framework for identifying modeling decisions which may complement or negate one another. We instantiate SUMMA instances that mimic the behaviors of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) by choosing modeling decisions which are implemented in each model. We compare runs from these models and their corresponding mimics across the Columbia River Basin located in the Pacific Northwest of the United States and Canada. From these comparisons, we are able to determine the extent to which model implementation has an effect on the results, as well as determine the changes in sensitivity of parameters due to these implementation differences. By examining these changes in results and sensitivities we can attempt to postulate changes in the modeling decisions which may provide better estimation of state variables.

Effectiveness of an educational intervention and physical exercise on the functional capacity of patients on haemodialysis.

PubMed

Molina-Robles, Esmeralda; Colomer-Codinachs, Marta; Roquet-Bohils, Marta; Chirveches-Pérez, Emilia; Ortiz-Jurado, Pep; Subirana-Casacuberta, Mireia

To describe the impact of a standard hospital educational intervention including active physical exercises on personal well-being, functional capacity and knowledge of the benefits of prescribed physical activity for patients undergoing haemodialysis. An uncontrolled, quasi-experimental, before-and-after study with repeated measures of response variables at 4, 8 and 12 weeks after participating in an educational and physical exercise hospital intervention. It was performed at the Nephrology Unit at the Hospital Complex in Vic within september and december 2014. The patients' well-being, functional capacity and knowledge were assessed. Assessment tools: NOC nursing indicators, Barthel index scale, FAC Holden, Timed Get Up and Go test and Daniels scale. We included 68 (80.0%) patients and 58 (85.3%) completed, with a mean age of 70.16±13.5 years; 62.1% were males. After 12 weeks, the patients had better scores of personal well-being (2.33±1.2, 3.88±0.8), more autonomy to perform activities of daily living (Barthel: 92.8±12.8; 93.5±13.9), more muscle strength (Daniels Scale: 3.81±0.7, 4.19±0.6) and walked more briskly (Get Up and Go test: 14.98±8.5; 15.65±10.5). All of the score differences were statistically significant (P<05) except the Barthel Index. The standard educational intervention and active exercise performed at hospital level improved the personal well-being, knowledge and functional capacity of patients on haemodialysis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Dense velocity reconstruction from tomographic PTV with material derivatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneiders, Jan F. G.; Scarano, Fulvio

2016-09-01

A method is proposed to reconstruct the instantaneous velocity field from time-resolved volumetric particle tracking velocimetry (PTV, e.g., 3D-PTV, tomographic PTV and Shake-the-Box), employing both the instantaneous velocity and the velocity material derivative of the sparse tracer particles. The constraint to the measured temporal derivative of the PTV particle tracks improves the consistency of the reconstructed velocity field. The method is christened as pouring time into space, as it leverages temporal information to increase the spatial resolution of volumetric PTV measurements. This approach becomes relevant in cases where the spatial resolution is limited by the seeding concentration. The method solves an optimization problem to find the vorticity and velocity fields that minimize a cost function, which includes next to instantaneous velocity, also the velocity material derivative. The velocity and its material derivative are related through the vorticity transport equation, and the cost function is minimized using the limited-memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) algorithm. The procedure is assessed numerically with a simulated PTV experiment in a turbulent boundary layer from a direct numerical simulation (DNS). The experimental validation considers a tomographic particle image velocimetry (PIV) experiment in a similar turbulent boundary layer and the additional case of a jet flow. The proposed technique (`vortex-in-cell plus', VIC+) is compared to tomographic PIV analysis (3D iterative cross-correlation), PTV interpolation methods (linear and adaptive Gaussian windowing) and to vortex-in-cell (VIC) interpolation without the material derivative. A visible increase in resolved details in the turbulent structures is obtained with the VIC+ approach, both in numerical simulations and experiments. This results in a more accurate determination of the turbulent stresses distribution in turbulent boundary layer investigations. Data from a jet experiment, where the vortex topology is retrieved with a small number of tracers indicate the potential utilization of VIC+ in low-concentration experiments as for instance occurring in large-scale volumetric PTV measurements.

Antibacterial effects of Traditional Chinese Medicine monomers against Streptococcus pneumoniae via inhibiting pneumococcal histidine kinase (VicK).

PubMed

Zhang, Shuai; Wang, Jianmin; Xu, Wenchun; Liu, Yusi; Wang, Wei; Wu, Kaifeng; Wang, Zhe; Zhang, Xuemei

2015-01-01

Two-component systems (TCSs) have the potential to be an effective target of the antimicrobials, and thus received much attention in recent years. VicK/VicR is one of TCSs in Streptococcus pneumoniae (S. pneumoniae), which is essential for pneumococcal survival. We have previously obtained several Traditional Chinese Medicine monomers using a computer-based screening. In this study, either alone or in combination with penicillin, their antimicrobial activities were evaluated based on in vivo and in vitro assays. The results showed that the MICs of 5'-(Methylthio)-5'-deoxyadenosine, octanal 2, 4-dinitrophenylhydrazone, deoxyshikonin, kavahin, and dodecyl gallate against S. pneumoniae were 37.1, 38.5, 17, 68.5, and 21 μg/mL, respectively. Time-killing assays showed that these compounds elicited bactericidal effects against S. pneumoniae D39 strain, which led to a 6-log reduction in CFU after exposure to compounds at four times of the MIC for 24 h. The five compounds inhibited the growth of Streptococcus pyogenes, Streptococcus mitis, Streptococcus mutans or Streptococcus pseudopneumoniae, meanwhile, deoxyshikonin and dodecyl gallate displayed strong inhibitory activities against Staphylococcus aureus. These compounds showed no obvious cytotoxicity effects on Vero cells. Survival time of the mice infected by S. pneumoniae strains was prolonged by the treatment with the compounds. Importantly, all of the five compounds exerted antimicrobial effects against multidrug-resistant clinical strains of S. pneumoniae. Moreover, even at sub-MIC concentration, they inhibited cell division and biofilm formation. The five compounds all have enhancement effect on penicillin. Deoxyshikonin and dodecyl gallate showed significantly synergic antimicrobial activity with penicillin in vivo and in vitro, and effectively reduced nasopharyngeal and lung colonization caused by different penicillin-resistant pneumococcal serotypes. In addition, the two compounds also showed synergic antimicrobial activity with erythromycin and tetracycline. Taken together, our results suggest that these novel VicK inhibitors may be promising compounds against the pneumococcus, including penicillin-resistant strains.

A variant of Leber hereditary optic neuropathy characterized by recovery of vision and by an unusual mitochondrial genetic etiology.

PubMed Central

Mackey, D; Howell, N

1992-01-01

The Tas2 and Vic2 Australian families are affected with a variant of Leber hereditary optic neuropathy (LHON). The risk of developing the optic neuropathy shows strict maternal inheritance, and the ophthalmological changes in affected family members are characteristic of LHON. However, in contrast to the common form of the disease, members of these two families show a high frequency of vision recovery. To ascertain the mitochondrial genetic etiology of the LHON in these families, both (a) the the nucleotide sequences of the seven mitochondrial genes encoding subunits of respiratory-chain complex I and (b) the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene were determined for representatives of both families. Neither family carries any of the previously identified primary mitochondrial LHON mutations: ND4/11778, ND1/3460, or ND1/4160. Instead, both LHON families carry multiple nucleotide changes in the mitochondrial complex I genes, which produce conservative amino acid changes. From the available sequence data, it is inferred that the Vic2 and Tas2 LHON families are phylogenetically related to each other and to a cluster of LHON families in which mutations in the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene have been hypothesized to play a primary etiological role. However, sequencing analysis establishes that the Vic2 and Tas2 LHON families do not carry these cytochrome b mutations. There are two hypotheses to account for the unusual mitochondrial genetic etiology of the LHON in the Tas2 and Vic2 LHON families. One possibility is that there is a primary LHON mutation within the mitochondrial genome but that it is at a site that was not included in the sequencing analyses. Alternatively, the disease in these families may result from the cumulative effects of multiple secondary LHON mutations that have less severe phenotypic consequences. PMID:1463007

Combining Dynamic Stretch and Tunable Stiffness to Probe Cell Mechanobiology In Vitro

PubMed Central

Throm Quinlan, Angela M.; Sierad, Leslie N.; Capulli, Andrew K.; Firstenberg, Laura E.; Billiar, Kristen L.

2011-01-01

Cells have the ability to actively sense their mechanical environment and respond to both substrate stiffness and stretch by altering their adhesion, proliferation, locomotion, morphology, and synthetic profile. In order to elucidate the interrelated effects of different mechanical stimuli on cell phenotype in vitro, we have developed a method for culturing mammalian cells in a two-dimensional environment at a wide range of combined levels of substrate stiffness and dynamic stretch. Polyacrylamide gels were covalently bonded to flexible silicone culture plates and coated with monomeric collagen for cell adhesion. Substrate stiffness was adjusted from relatively soft (G′ = 0.3 kPa) to stiff (G′ = 50 kPa) by altering the ratio of acrylamide to bis-acrylamide, and the silicone membranes were stretched over circular loading posts by applying vacuum pressure to impart near-uniform stretch, as confirmed by strain field analysis. As a demonstration of the system, porcine aortic valve interstitial cells (VIC) and human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSC) were plated on soft and stiff substrates either statically cultured or exposed to 10% equibiaxial or pure uniaxial stretch at 1Hz for 6 hours. In all cases, cell attachment and cell viability were high. On soft substrates, VICs cultured statically exhibit a small rounded morphology, significantly smaller than on stiff substrates (p<0.05). Following equibiaxial cyclic stretch, VICs spread to the extent of cells cultured on stiff substrates, but did not reorient in response to uniaxial stretch to the extent of cells stretched on stiff substrates. hMSCs exhibited a less pronounced response than VICs, likely due to a lower stiffness threshold for spreading on static gels. These preliminary data demonstrate that inhibition of spreading due to a lack of matrix stiffness surrounding a cell may be overcome by externally applied stretch suggesting similar mechanotransduction mechanisms for sensing stiffness and stretch. PMID:21858051

Whole-Genome Phylogenetic Analysis of Influenza B/Phuket/3073/2013-Like Viruses and Unique Reassortants Detected in Malaysia between 2012 and 2014

PubMed Central

Tan, Joon Ling; Chan, Kok Gan; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Chan, Yoke Fun; Sam, I-Ching; Tee, Kok Keng

2017-01-01

Reassortment of genetic segments between and within influenza B lineages (Victoria and Yamagata) has been shown to generate novel reassortants with unique genetic characteristics. Based on hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genes, recent surveillance study has identified reassortment properties in B/Phuket/3073/2013-like virus, which is currently used in the WHO-recommended influenza vaccine. To understand the potential reassortment patterns for all gene segments, four B/Phuket/3073/2013-like viruses and two unique reassortants (one each from Yamagata and Victoria) detected in Malaysia from 2012–2014 were subjected to whole-genome sequencing. Each gene was phylogenetically classified into lineages, clades and sub-clades. Three B/Phuket/3073/2013-like viruses from Yamagata lineage were found to be intra-clade reassortants, possessing PA and NA genes derived from Stockholm/12-like sub-clade, while the remaining genes from Wisconsin/01-like sub-clade (both sub-clades were within Yamagata Clade 3/Yam-3). However, the other B/Phuket/3073/2013-like virus had NS gene that derived from Stockholm/12-like sub-clade instead of Wisconsin/01-like sub-clade. One inter-clade reassortant had Yamagata Clade 2/Yam-2-derived HA and NP, and its remaining genes were Yam-3-derived. Within Victoria Clade 1/Vic-1 in Victoria lineage, one virus had intra-clade reassortment properties: HA and PB2 from Vic-1B sub-clade, MP and NS from a unique sub-clade “Vic-1C”, and the remaining genes from Vic-1A sub-clade. Although random reassortment event may generate unique reassortants, detailed phylogenetic classification of gene segments showed possible genetic linkage between PA and NA genes in B/Phuket/3073/2013-like viruses, which requires further investigation. Understanding on reassortment patterns in influenza B evolution may contribute to future vaccine design. PMID:28129386

A theoretical study of the hydrogen bonding between the vic-, cis- and trans-C 2H 2F 2 isomers and hydrogen fluoride

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusu, Victor H.; da Silva, João Bosco P.; Ramos, Mozart N.

2009-04-01

MP2/6-31++G(d,p) and B3LYP/6-31++G(d,p) theoretical calculations have been employed to investigate the hydrogen bonding formation involving the vic-, cis- and trans-C 2H 2F 2 isomers and hydrogen fluoride. Our calculations have revealed for each isomer the preferential existence of two possible hydrogen-bonded complexes: a non-cyclic complex and a cyclic complex. For all the three isomers the binding energies for the non-cyclic and cyclic hydrogen complexes are essentially equal using both the MP2 and B3LYP calculations, being that the cyclic structure is slightly more stable. For instance, the binding energies including BSSE and ZPE corrections for the non-cyclic and cyclic structures of cis-C 2H 2F···HF are 8.7 and 9.0 kJ mol -1, respectively, using B3LYP calculations. The cyclic complex formation reduces the polarity, in contrast to what occurs with the non-cyclic complex. This result is more accentuated in vic-C 2H 2F 2···HF. In this latter, Δ μ(cyclic) is -3.07 D, whereas Δ μ(non-cyclic) is +1.92 D using B3LYP calculations. Their corresponding MP2 values are +0.44 D and -1.89 D, respectively. As expected, the complexation produces an H sbnd F stretching frequency downward shift, whereas its IR intensity is enhanced. On the other hand, the vibrational modes of the vic-, cis- and trans-C 2H 2F 2 isomers are little affected by complexation. The new vibrational modes due to hydrogen bonding formation show several interesting features, in particular the HF bending modes which are pure rotations in the free molecule.

A variant of Leber hereditary optic neuropathy characterized by recovery of vision and by an unusual mitochondrial genetic etiology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mackey, D.; Howell, N.

1992-12-01

The Tas2 and Vic2 Australian families are affected with a variant of Leber hereditary optic neuropathy (LHON). The risk of developing the optic neuropathy shows strict maternal inheritance, and the opthalmological changes in affected family members are characteristic of LHON. However, in contrast to the common form of the disease, members of these two families show a high frequency of vision recovery. To ascertain the mitochondrial genetic etiology of the LHON in these families, both (a) the nucleotide sequences of the seven mitochondrial genes encoding subunits of respiratory-chain complex I and (b) the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene were determined formore » representatives of both families. Neither family carries any of the previously identified primary mitochondrial LHON mutations: ND4/11778, ND1/3460, or ND1/4160. Instead, both LHON families carry multiple nucleotide changes in the mitochondrial complex I genes, which produce conservative amino acid changes. From the available sequence data, it is inferred that the Vic2 and Tas2 LHON families are phylogenetically related to each other and to a cluster of LHON families in which mutations in the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene have been hypothesized to play a primary etiological role. However, sequencing analysis establishes that the Vic2 and Tas2 LHON families do not carry these cytochrome b mutations. There are two hypotheses to account for the unusual mitochondrial genetic etiology of the LHON in the Tas2 and Vic2 LHON families. One possibility is that there is a primary LHON mutation within the mitochondrial genome but that it is at a site that was not included in the sequencing analyses. Alternatively, the disease in these families may result from the cumulative effects of multiple secondary LHON mutations that have less severe phenotypic consequences. 29 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Pressure spectra from single-snapshot tomographic PIV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneiders, Jan F. G.; Avallone, Francesco; Pröbsting, Stefan; Ragni, Daniele; Scarano, Fulvio

2018-03-01

The power spectral density and coherence of temporal pressure fluctuations are obtained from low-repetition-rate tomographic PIV measurements. This is achieved by extension of recent single-snapshot pressure evaluation techniques based upon the Taylor's hypothesis (TH) of frozen turbulence and vortex-in-cell (VIC) simulation. Finite time marching of the measured instantaneous velocity fields is performed using TH and VIC. Pressure is calculated from the resulting velocity time series. Because of the theoretical limitations, the finite time marching can be performed until the measured flow structures are convected out of the measurement volume. This provides a lower limit of resolvable frequency range. An upper limit is given by the spatial resolution of the measurements. Finite time-marching approaches are applied to low-repetition-rate tomographic PIV data of the flow past a straight trailing edge at 10 m/s. Reference results of the power spectral density and coherence are obtained from surface pressure transducers. In addition, the results are compared to state-of-the-art experimental data obtained from time-resolved tomographic PIV performed at 10 kHz. The time-resolved approach suffers from low spatial resolution and limited maximum acquisition frequency because of hardware limitations. Additionally, these approaches strongly depend upon the time kernel length chosen for pressure evaluation. On the other hand, the finite time-marching approaches make use of low-repetition-rate tomographic PIV measurements that offer higher spatial resolution. Consequently, increased accuracy of the power spectral density and coherence of pressure fluctuations are obtained in the high-frequency range, in comparison to the time-resolved measurements. The approaches based on TH and VIC are found to perform similarly in the high-frequency range. At lower frequencies, TH is found to underestimate coherence and intensity of the pressure fluctuations in comparison to time-resolved PIV and the microphone reference data. The VIC-based approach, on the other hand, returns results on the order of the reference.

Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands.

PubMed

Lee, Se-Yeun; Ryan, Maureen E; Hamlet, Alan F; Palen, Wendy J; Lawler, Joshua J; Halabisky, Meghan

2015-01-01

Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916-2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce wetland habitat availability for many species.

Hurricane Harvey Riverine Flooding: Part 1 - Reconstruction of Hurricane Harvey Flooding for Harris County, TX using a GPU-accelerated 2D flood model for post-flood hazard analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalyanapu, A. J.; Dullo, T. T.; Gangrade, S.; Kao, S. C.; Marshall, R.; Islam, S. R.; Ghafoor, S. K.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey that made landfall in the southern Texas this August is one of the most destructive hurricanes during the 2017 hurricane season. During its active period, many areas in coastal Texas region received more than 40 inches of rain. This downpour caused significant flooding resulting in about 77 casualties, displacing more than 30,000 people, inundating hundreds of thousands homes and is currently estimated to have caused more than $70 billion in direct damage. One of the significantly affected areas is Harris County where the city of Houston, TX is located. Covering over two HUC-8 drainage basins ( 2702 mi2), this county experienced more than 80% of its annual average rainfall during this event. This study presents an effort to reconstruct flooding caused by extreme rainfall due to Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. This computationally intensive task was performed at a 30-m spatial resolution using a rapid flood model called Flood2D-GPU, a graphics processing unit (GPU) accelerated model, on Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL) Titan Supercomputer. For this task, the hourly rainfall estimates from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Stage IV Quantitative Precipitation Estimate were fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and Routing Application for Parallel computation of Discharge (RAPID) routing model to estimate flow hydrographs at 69 locations for Flood2D-GPU simulation. Preliminary results of the simulation including flood inundation extents, maps of flood depths and inundation duration will be presented. Future efforts will focus on calibrating and validating the simulation results and assessing the flood damage for better understanding the impacts made by Hurricane Harvey.

Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands

PubMed Central

Hamlet, Alan F.; Palen, Wendy J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Halabisky, Meghan

2015-01-01

Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916–2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce wetland habitat availability for many species. PMID:26331850

Partitioning uncertainty in streamflow projections under nonstationary model conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, P. P.

2018-02-01

Assessing the impacts of Land Use (LU) and climate change on future streamflow projections is necessary for efficient management of water resources. However, model projections are burdened with significant uncertainty arising from various sources. Most of the previous studies have considered climate models and scenarios as major sources of uncertainty, but uncertainties introduced by land use change and hydrologic model assumptions are rarely investigated. In this paper an attempt is made to segregate the contribution from (i) general circulation models (GCMs), (ii) emission scenarios, (iii) land use scenarios, (iv) stationarity assumption of the hydrologic model, and (v) internal variability of the processes, to overall uncertainty in streamflow projections using analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach. Generally, most of the impact assessment studies are carried out with unchanging hydrologic model parameters in future. It is, however, necessary to address the nonstationarity in model parameters with changing land use and climate. In this paper, a regression based methodology is presented to obtain the hydrologic model parameters with changing land use and climate scenarios in future. The Upper Ganga Basin (UGB) in India is used as a case study to demonstrate the methodology. The semi-distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is set-up over the basin, under nonstationary conditions. Results indicate that model parameters vary with time, thereby invalidating the often-used assumption of model stationarity. The streamflow in UGB under the nonstationary model condition is found to reduce in future. The flows are also found to be sensitive to changes in land use. Segregation results suggest that model stationarity assumption and GCMs along with their interactions with emission scenarios, act as dominant sources of uncertainty. This paper provides a generalized framework for hydrologists to examine stationarity assumption of models before considering them for future streamflow projections and segregate the contribution of various sources to the uncertainty.

Coupling large scale hydrologic-reservoir-hydraulic models for impact studies in data sparse regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Loughlin, Fiachra; Neal, Jeff; Wagener, Thorsten; Bates, Paul; Freer, Jim; Woods, Ross; Pianosi, Francesca; Sheffied, Justin

2017-04-01

As hydraulic modelling moves to increasingly large spatial domains it has become essential to take reservoirs and their operations into account. Large-scale hydrological models have been including reservoirs for at least the past two decades, yet they cannot explicitly model the variations in spatial extent of reservoirs, and many reservoirs operations in hydrological models are not undertaken during the run-time operation. This requires a hydraulic model, yet to-date no continental scale hydraulic model has directly simulated reservoirs and their operations. In addition to the need to include reservoirs and their operations in hydraulic models as they move to global coverage, there is also a need to link such models to large scale hydrology models or land surface schemes. This is especially true for Africa where the number of river gauges has consistently declined since the middle of the twentieth century. In this study we address these two major issues by developing: 1) a coupling methodology for the VIC large-scale hydrological model and the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model, and 2) a reservoir module for the LISFLOOD-FP model, which currently includes four sets of reservoir operating rules taken from the major large-scale hydrological models. The Volta Basin, West Africa, was chosen to demonstrate the capability of the modelling framework as it is a large river basin ( 400,000 km2) and contains the largest man-made lake in terms of area (8,482 km2), Lake Volta, created by the Akosombo dam. Lake Volta also experiences a seasonal variation in water levels of between two and six metres that creates a dynamic shoreline. In this study, we first run our coupled VIC and LISFLOOD-FP model without explicitly modelling Lake Volta and then compare these results with those from model runs where the dam operations and Lake Volta are included. The results show that we are able to obtain variation in the Lake Volta water levels and that including the dam operations and Lake Volta has significant impacts on the water levels across the domain.

Monitoring and forecasting the 2009-2010 severe drought in Southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Tang, Q.; Liu, X.; Leng, G.; Li, Z.; Cui, H.

2015-12-01

From the fall of 2009 to the spring of 2010, an unprecedented drought swept across southwest China (SW) and led to a severe shortage in drinking water and a huge loss to regional economy. Monitoring and predicting the severe drought with several months in advance is of critical importance for such hydrological disaster assessment, preparation and mitigation. In this study, we attempted to carry out a model-based hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecasting framework, and assessed its skill in capturing the evolution of the SW drought in 2009-2010. Using the satellite-based meteorological forcings and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, the drought conditions were assessed in a near-real-time manner based on a 62-year (1952-2013) retrospective simulation, wherein the satellite data was adjusted by a gauge-based forcing to remove systematic biases. Bias-corrected seasonal forecasting outputs from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) was tentatively applied for a seasonal hydrologic prediction and its predictive skill was overall evaluated relative to a traditional Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method with lead time varying from 1 to 6 months. The results show that the climate model-driven hydrologic predictability is generally limited to 1-month lead time and exhibits negligible skill improvement relative to ESP during this drought event, suggesting the initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs) play a dominant role in forecasting performance. The research highlights the value of the framework in providing accurate IHCs in a real-time manner which will greatly benefit drought early-warning.

Assimilation of Remotely-Sensed Snow information to improve streamflow predictions in the Southwestern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Burgos, V.; Rajagopal, S.; Martinez Baquero, G. F.; Gupta, H. V.

2009-12-01

Rapidly growing population in the southwestern US is leading to increasing demand and decreasing availability of water, requiring a detailed quantification of hydrological processes. The integration of detailed spatial information of water fluxes from remote sensing platforms, and hydrological models coupled with ground based data is an important step towards this goal. This project is exploring the use of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) estimates to update the snow component of the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). SWE estimates are obtained by combining SNOTEL data with MODIS Snow Cover Area (SCA) information. Because, cloud cover corrupts the estimates of SCA, a rule-based method is used to clean up the remotely sensed images. The rules include a time interpolation method, and the probability of a pixel for been covered with snow based on the relationships between elevation, temperature, lapse rate, aspect and topographic shading. The approach is used to improve streamflow predictions on two rivers managed by the Salt River Project, a water and energy supplier in central Arizona. This solution will help improve the management of reservoirs in the Salt and Verde River in Phoenix, Arizona (tributaries of the lower Colorado River basin), by incorporating physically based distributed models and remote sensing observations into their Decision Support Tools and planning tools. This research seeks to increase the knowledge base used to manage reservoirs and groundwater resources in a region affected by a long-term drought. It will be applicable and relevant for other water utility companies facing the challenges of climate change and decreasing water resources.

The association of context-specific sitting time and physical activity intensity to working memory capacity and academic achievement in young adults.

PubMed

Felez-Nobrega, Mireia; Hillman, Charles H; Cirera, Eva; Puig-Ribera, Anna

2017-08-01

To examine combined associations between self-reported context-specific sitting time (ST) and physical activity (PA) with working memory capacity (WMC) and academic achievement in a sample of Spanish adults. Undergraduate students (n = 371; 21 years ± 3 years, 44% female) were recruited from University of Vic-Central University of Catalonia. Participants completed a 54-item survey that assessed socio-demographic variables (e.g. age, gender, academic year), min/week of light (LPA), moderate (MPA) and vigorous (VPA) intensity PA (International Physical Activity Questionnaire), min/day of domain-specific ST (Last 7 days sedentary behavior questionnaire) and academic performance (grade point average). WMC was assessed through a multiple complex span task that included: Operation Span, Symmetry Span and Rotation Span. These tasks interleave a processing task with a short list of to-be-remembered items. General linear models-adjusted by PA, ST and gender-assessed combined associations between ST and PA with WMC and academic achievement. Performing more than 3 h/week of MPA was related to increases in WMC (P < 0.001). However, PA was not associated with academic performance. More than 3 h seated on a weekend day while performing non-screen leisure activities were related to reduced WMC after adjusting for PA (P = 0.012). Similarly, >3 h/weekday spent seated in these sedentary activities or in leisure-forms of screen time were inversely associated with academic performance regardless of PA (P = 0.033; P = 0.048). MPA may benefit working memory; however, specific domains of leisure-time sedentary behavior may have an unfavorable influence on working memory and academic performance regardless of time spent in PA. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Exploring the Causes of Mid-Holocene Drought in the Rocky Mountains Using Hydrologic Forward Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meador, E.; Morrill, C.

2017-12-01

We present a quantitative model-data comparison for mid-Holocene (6 ka) lake levels in the Rocky Mountains, with the goals of assessing the skill coupled climate models and hydrologic forward models in simulating climate change and improving our understanding of the factors causing past changes in water resources. The mid-Holocene climate in this area may in some ways be similar to expected future climate, thus improved understanding of the factors causing past changes in water resources have the potential to aid in the process of water allocation for large areas that share a relatively small water source. This project focuses on Little Windy Hill Pond in the Medicine Bow Forest in the Rocky Mountains in southern Wyoming. We first calibrated the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) catchment hydrologic model and the one-dimensional Hostetler Bartlein lake energy-balance model to modern observations, using U.S. Geological Survey stream discharge data and Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) data to ensure appropriate selection of model parameters. Once the models were calibrated to modern conditions, we forced them with output from eight mid-Holocene coupled climate model simulations completed as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5. Forcing from nearly all of the CMIP5 models generates intense, short-lived droughts for the mid-Holocene that are more severe than any we modeled for the past six decades. The severity of the mid-Holocene droughts could be sufficient, depending on sediment processes in the lake, to account for low lake levels recorded by loss-on-ignition in sediment cores. Our preliminary analysis of model output indicates that the combined effects of decreased snowmelt runoff and increased summer lake evaporation cause low mid-Holocene lake levels. These factors are also expected to be important in the future under anthropogenic climate change.

Towards improved parameterization of a macroscale hydrologic model in a discontinuous permafrost boreal forest ecosystem

DOE PAGES

Endalamaw, Abraham; Bolton, W. Robert; Young-Robertson, Jessica M.; ...

2017-09-14

Modeling hydrological processes in the Alaskan sub-arctic is challenging because of the extreme spatial heterogeneity in soil properties and vegetation communities. Nevertheless, modeling and predicting hydrological processes is critical in this region due to its vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Coarse-spatial-resolution datasets used in land surface modeling pose a new challenge in simulating the spatially distributed and basin-integrated processes since these datasets do not adequately represent the small-scale hydrological, thermal, and ecological heterogeneity. The goal of this study is to improve the prediction capacity of mesoscale to large-scale hydrological models by introducing a small-scale parameterization scheme, which bettermore » represents the spatial heterogeneity of soil properties and vegetation cover in the Alaskan sub-arctic. The small-scale parameterization schemes are derived from observations and a sub-grid parameterization method in the two contrasting sub-basins of the Caribou Poker Creek Research Watershed (CPCRW) in Interior Alaska: one nearly permafrost-free (LowP) sub-basin and one permafrost-dominated (HighP) sub-basin. The sub-grid parameterization method used in the small-scale parameterization scheme is derived from the watershed topography. We found that observed soil thermal and hydraulic properties – including the distribution of permafrost and vegetation cover heterogeneity – are better represented in the sub-grid parameterization method than the coarse-resolution datasets. Parameters derived from the coarse-resolution datasets and from the sub-grid parameterization method are implemented into the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) mesoscale hydrological model to simulate runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture in the two sub-basins of the CPCRW. Simulated hydrographs based on the small-scale parameterization capture most of the peak and low flows, with similar accuracy in both sub-basins, compared to simulated hydrographs based on the coarse-resolution datasets. On average, the small-scale parameterization scheme improves the total runoff simulation by up to 50 % in the LowP sub-basin and by up to 10 % in the HighP sub-basin from the large-scale parameterization. This study shows that the proposed sub-grid parameterization method can be used to improve the performance of mesoscale hydrological models in the Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds.« less

Towards improved parameterization of a macroscale hydrologic model in a discontinuous permafrost boreal forest ecosystem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Endalamaw, Abraham; Bolton, W. Robert; Young-Robertson, Jessica M.

Modeling hydrological processes in the Alaskan sub-arctic is challenging because of the extreme spatial heterogeneity in soil properties and vegetation communities. Nevertheless, modeling and predicting hydrological processes is critical in this region due to its vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Coarse-spatial-resolution datasets used in land surface modeling pose a new challenge in simulating the spatially distributed and basin-integrated processes since these datasets do not adequately represent the small-scale hydrological, thermal, and ecological heterogeneity. The goal of this study is to improve the prediction capacity of mesoscale to large-scale hydrological models by introducing a small-scale parameterization scheme, which bettermore » represents the spatial heterogeneity of soil properties and vegetation cover in the Alaskan sub-arctic. The small-scale parameterization schemes are derived from observations and a sub-grid parameterization method in the two contrasting sub-basins of the Caribou Poker Creek Research Watershed (CPCRW) in Interior Alaska: one nearly permafrost-free (LowP) sub-basin and one permafrost-dominated (HighP) sub-basin. The sub-grid parameterization method used in the small-scale parameterization scheme is derived from the watershed topography. We found that observed soil thermal and hydraulic properties – including the distribution of permafrost and vegetation cover heterogeneity – are better represented in the sub-grid parameterization method than the coarse-resolution datasets. Parameters derived from the coarse-resolution datasets and from the sub-grid parameterization method are implemented into the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) mesoscale hydrological model to simulate runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture in the two sub-basins of the CPCRW. Simulated hydrographs based on the small-scale parameterization capture most of the peak and low flows, with similar accuracy in both sub-basins, compared to simulated hydrographs based on the coarse-resolution datasets. On average, the small-scale parameterization scheme improves the total runoff simulation by up to 50 % in the LowP sub-basin and by up to 10 % in the HighP sub-basin from the large-scale parameterization. This study shows that the proposed sub-grid parameterization method can be used to improve the performance of mesoscale hydrological models in the Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds.« less

Vulnerability Science: A Response to a Criticism of the Ballistic Research Laboratory’s Vulnerability Modeling Strategy

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-06-01

SMCAR-CCB-TL AMXSY-MP, H. Cohen Watervliet, NY 12189-4050 1 Cdr, USATECOM ATTN: AMSTE- TD Commander 3 Cdr, CRDEC, AMCCOM US Army Armament, Munitions ATIN...Laboratory Command Armament RD&E Center ATTN: SLCTO (Marcos Sola) US Army AMCCOM 2800 Powder Mill Road ATTN: SMCAR- TDS (Vic Lindner) Adelphi, MD 20783-1145...ASQNC-ELC-1-T, Myer Center US Army AMCCOM Fort Monmouth, NJ 07703-5000 ATTN: SMCAR- TD (Jim Killen) Picatinny Arsenal, NJ 07806-5000 14 DISTRIBUTION

A Multialgorithm Approach to Land Surface Modeling of Suspended Sediment in the Colorado Front Range

PubMed Central

Stewart, J. R.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Rajagopalan, B.; Minear, J. T.; Raseman, W. J.

2017-01-01

Abstract A new paradigm of simulating suspended sediment load (SSL) with a Land Surface Model (LSM) is presented here. Five erosion and SSL algorithms were applied within a common LSM framework to quantify uncertainties and evaluate predictability in two steep, forested catchments (>1,000 km2). The algorithms were chosen from among widely used sediment models, including empirically based: monovariate rating curve (MRC) and the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE); stochastically based: the Load Estimator (LOADEST); conceptually based: the Hydrologic Simulation Program—Fortran (HSPF); and physically based: the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM). The algorithms were driven by the hydrologic fluxes and meteorological inputs generated from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) LSM. A multiobjective calibration was applied to each algorithm and optimized parameter sets were validated over an excluded period, as well as in a transfer experiment to a nearby catchment to explore parameter robustness. Algorithm performance showed consistent decreases when parameter sets were applied to periods with greatly differing SSL variability relative to the calibration period. Of interest was a joint calibration of all sediment algorithm and streamflow parameters simultaneously, from which trade‐offs between streamflow performance and partitioning of runoff and base flow to optimize SSL timing were noted, decreasing the flexibility and robustness of the streamflow to adapt to different time periods. Parameter transferability to another catchment was most successful in more process‐oriented algorithms, the HSPF and the DHSVM. This first‐of‐its‐kind multialgorithm sediment scheme offers a unique capability to portray acute episodic loading while quantifying trade‐offs and uncertainties across a range of algorithm structures. PMID:29399268

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in a Cold Region Watershed: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dibike, Y. B.; Eum, H. I.; Prowse, T. D.

2017-12-01

Flows originating from alpine dominated cold region watersheds typically experience extended winter low flows followed by spring snowmelt and summer rainfall driven high flows. In a warmer climate, there will be temperature- induced shift in precipitation from snow towards rain as well as changes in snowmelt timing affecting the frequency of extreme high and low flow events which could significantly alter ecosystem services. This study examines the potential changes in the frequency and severity of hydrologic extremes in the Athabasca River watershed in Alberta, Canada based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and selected and statistically downscaled climate change scenario data from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The sensitivity of these projected changes is also examined by applying different extreme flow analysis methods. The hydrological model projections show an overall increase in mean annual streamflow in the watershed and a corresponding shift in the freshet timing to earlier period. Most of the streams are projected to experience increases during the winter and spring seasons and decreases during the summer and early fall seasons, with an overall projected increases in extreme high flows, especially for low frequency events. While the middle and lower parts of the watershed are characterised by projected increases in extreme high flows, the high elevation alpine region is mainly characterised by corresponding decreases in extreme low flow events. However, the magnitude of projected changes in extreme flow varies over a wide range, especially for low frequent events, depending on the climate scenario and period of analysis, and sometimes in a nonlinear way. Nonetheless, the sensitivity of the projected changes to the statistical method of analysis is found to be relatively small compared to the inter-model variability.

Optimization of a Radiative Transfer Forward Operator for Simulating SMOS Brightness Temperatures over the Upper Mississippi Basin, USA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lievens, H.; Verhoest, N. E. C.; Martens, B.; VanDenBerg, M. J.; Bitar, A. Al; Tomer, S. Kumar; Merlin, O.; Cabot, F.; Kerr, Y.; DeLannoy, G. J. M.;

Regional Arctic System Model (RASM): A Tool to Advance Understanding and Prediction of Arctic Climate Change at Process Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Osinski, R.; Brunke, M.; Cassano, J. J.; Clement Kinney, J. L.; Craig, A.; Duvivier, A.; Fisel, B. J.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.; Hamman, J.; Hughes, M.; Nijssen, B.; Zeng, X.

2014-12-01

The Arctic is undergoing rapid climatic changes, which are some of the most coordinated changes currently occurring anywhere on Earth. They are exemplified by the retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, which integrates forcing by, exchanges with and feedbacks between atmosphere, ocean and land. While historical reconstructions from Global Climate and Global Earth System Models (GC/ESMs) are in broad agreement with these changes, the rate of change in the GC/ESMs remains outpaced by observations. Reasons for that stem from a combination of coarse model resolution, inadequate parameterizations, unrepresented processes and a limited knowledge of physical and other real world interactions. We demonstrate the capability of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) in addressing some of the GC/ESM limitations in simulating observed seasonal to decadal variability and trends in the sea ice cover and climate. RASM is a high resolution, fully coupled, pan-Arctic climate model that uses the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. It uses the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) and Parallel Ocean Program (POP) configured at an eddy-permitting resolution of 1/12° as well as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) models at 50 km resolution. All RASM components are coupled via the CESM flux coupler (CPL7) at 20-minute intervals. RASM is an example of limited-area, process-resolving, fully coupled earth system model, which due to the additional constraints from lateral boundary conditions and nudging within a regional model domain facilitates detailed comparisons with observational statistics that are not possible with GC/ESMs. In this talk, we will emphasize the utility of RASM to understand sensitivity to variable parameter space, importance of critical processes, coupled feedbacks and ultimately to reduce uncertainty in arctic climate change projections.

The Role of Model Fidelity in Understanding the Food-Energy-Water Nexus at the Asset Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tidwell, V. C.; Lowry, T. S.; Behery, S.; Macknick, J.; Yang, Y. C. E.

2017-12-01

An improved understanding of the food-energy-water nexus at the asset level (e.g., power plant, irrigation ditch, water utility) is necessary for the efficient management and operations of connected infrastructure systems. Interdependencies potentially influencing the operations of a particular asset can be numerous. For example, operations of energy and agricultural assets depend on the delivery of water, which in turn depend on the physical hydrology, river/reservoir operations, water rights, the networked water infrastructure and other factors. A critical challenge becomes identification of those linkages central to the analysis of the system. Toward this need, a case study was conducted centered on the San Juan River basin, a major tributary to the Colorado River. A unique opportunity was afforded by the availability of two sets of coupled models built on the same simulation platform but formulated at distinctly different fidelities. Comparative analysis was driven by statistically downscaled climate data from three global climate models (emission scenario RCP 8.5) and planned growth in regional water demand. Precipitation was partitioned between evaporation, runoff and recharge using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. Priority administration of small-scale water use of upland tributary flows was simulated using Colorado's StateMod model. Mainstem operations of the San Juan River, including releases from Navajo Reservoir, were subsequently modeled using RiverWare to estimate impacts on water deliveries, environmental flows and interbasin transfers out to the year 2100. Models differ in the spatial resolution, disaggregation of water use, infrastructure operations and representation of system dynamics. Comparisons drawn between this suite of coupled models provides insight into the value of model fidelity relative to assessing asset vulnerability to a range of uncertain growth and climate futures. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.

Robust Hydrological Forecasting for High-resolution Distributed Models Using a Unified Data Assimilation Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, F.; Liang, X.

2017-12-01

Reliable real-time hydrological forecasting, to predict important phenomena such as floods, is invaluable to the society. However, modern high-resolution distributed models have faced challenges when dealing with uncertainties that are caused by the large number of parameters and initial state estimations involved. Therefore, to rely on these high-resolution models for critical real-time forecast applications, considerable improvements on the parameter and initial state estimation techniques must be made. In this work we present a unified data assimilation algorithm called Optimized PareTo Inverse Modeling through Inverse STochastic Search (OPTIMISTS) to deal with the challenge of having robust flood forecasting for high-resolution distributed models. This new algorithm combines the advantages of particle filters and variational methods in a unique way to overcome their individual weaknesses. The analysis of candidate particles compares model results with observations in a flexible time frame, and a multi-objective approach is proposed which attempts to simultaneously minimize differences with the observations and departures from the background states by using both Bayesian sampling and non-convex evolutionary optimization. Moreover, the resulting Pareto front is given a probabilistic interpretation through kernel density estimation to create a non-Gaussian distribution of the states. OPTIMISTS was tested on a low-resolution distributed land surface model using VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) and on a high-resolution distributed hydrological model using the DHSVM (Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model). In the tests streamflow observations are assimilated. OPTIMISTS was also compared with a traditional particle filter and a variational method. Results show that our method can reliably produce adequate forecasts and that it is able to outperform those resulting from assimilating the observations using a particle filter or an evolutionary 4D variational method alone. In addition, our method is shown to be efficient in tackling high-resolution applications with robust results.

Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerling, A. L.; Bryant, B. P.; Preisler, H.

2008-12-01

We present preliminary results of the 2008 Climate Change Impact Assessment for wildfire in California, part of the second biennial science report to the California Climate Action Team organized via the California Climate Change Center by the California Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research Program pursuant to Executive Order S-03-05 of Governor Schwarzenegger. In order to support decision making by the State pertaining to mitigation of and adaptation to climate change and its impacts, we model wildfire occurrence monthly from 1950 to 2100 under a range of climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We use six climate change models (GFDL CM2.1, NCAR PCM1, CNRM CM3, MPI ECHAM5, MIROC3.2 med, NCAR CCSM3) under two emissions scenarios--A2 (C02 850ppm max atmospheric concentration) and B1(CO2 550ppm max concentration). Climate model output has been downscaled to a 1/8 degree (~12 km) grid using two alternative methods: a Bias Correction and Spatial Donwscaling (BCSD) and a Constructed Analogues (CA) downscaling. Hydrologic variables have been simulated from temperature, precipitation, wind and radiation forcing data using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Macroscale Hydrologic Model. We model wildfire as a function of temperature, moisture deficit, and land surface characteristics using nonlinear logistic regression techniques. Previous work on wildfire climatology and seasonal forecasting has demonstrated that these variables account for much of the inter-annual and seasonal variation in wildfire. The results of this study are monthly gridded probabilities of wildfire occurrence by fire size class, and estimates of the number of structures potentially affected by fires. In this presentation we will explore the range of modeled outcomes for wildfire in California, considering the effects of emissions scenarios, climate model sensitivities, downscaling methods, hydrologic simulations, statistical model specifications for california wildfire, and their intersection with a range of development scenarios for California.

Energy-Water-Land-Climate Nexus: Modeling Impacts from the Asset to Regional Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tidwell, V. C.; Bennett, K. E.; Middleton, R. S.; Behery, S.; Macknick, J.; Corning-Padilla, A.; Brinkman, G.; Meng, M.

2016-12-01

A critical challenge for the energy-water-land nexus is understanding and modeling the connection between the natural system—including changes in climate, land use/cover, and streamflow—and the engineered system including water for energy, agriculture, and society. Equally important is understanding the linkage across scales; that is, how impacts at the asset level aggregate to influence behavior at the local to regional scale. Toward this need, a case study was conducted featuring multi-sector and multi-scale modeling centered on the San Juan River basin (a watershed that accounts for one-tenth of the Colorado River drainage area). Simulations were driven by statistically downscaled climate data from three global climate models (emission scenario RCP 8.5) and planned growth in regional water demand. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model was fitted with a custom vegetation mortality sub-model and used to estimate tributary inflows to the San Juan River and estimate reservoir evaporation. San Juan River operations, including releases from Navajo Reservoir, were subsequently modeled using RiverWare to estimate impacts on water deliveries out to the year 2100. Major water demands included two large coal-fired power plants, a local electric utility, river-side irrigation, the Navajo Indian Irrigation Project and instream flows managed for endangered aquatic species. Also tracked were basin exports, including water (downstream flows to the Colorado River and interbasin transfers to the Rio Grande) and interstate electric power transmission. Implications for the larger western electric grid were assessed using PLEXOS, a sub-hourly dispatch, electric production-cost model. Results highlight asset-level interactions at the energy-water-land nexus driven by climate and population dynamics; specifically, growing vulnerabilities to shorted water deliveries. Analyses also explored linkages across geographic scales from the San Juan to the larger Colorado River and Rio Grande basins as well as the western power grid.

A solution for the binary system V1373 Orionis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauck, Norbert

2016-02-01

Binary system V1373 Ori (HD 36107) has been investigated in the photometric passbands VIc and by spectroscopy (radial velocities). Modelling of the data delivered a single and consistent solution for a detached configuration consisting of a large K-type giant primary component having a radius of 39.40 ± 0.43 Rsun and a mass of 1.132 ± 0.043 Msun, and an invisible dwarf secondary component having a mass of 0.661 ± 0.025 Msun. The red giant fits into a stellar model for a moderately sub-solar metallicity of Z = 0.008. [English and German online-version available under www.bav-astro.eu/rb/rb2016-2/4.html].

One-dimensional filtration of pharmaceutical grade phyllosilicate dispersions.

PubMed

Viseras, C; Cerezo, P; Meeten, G H; Lopez-Galindo, A

2001-04-17

The filtration behaviour of some clay-water dispersions was studied. Two Spanish fibrous phyllosilicates (sepiolite from Vicálvaro and palygorskite from Turón) and a commercial bentonite (Bentopharm UK) with similar sizes and different morphologies (fibrous and/or laminar) were selected as model clays. Sepiolite from Vicálvaro is an almost pure fibrous sample, Bentopharm presents a high amount of laminar particles and palygorskite from Turón is made up of similar percentages of laminar and fibrous particles. The disperse systems were made up using a rotor-stator mixer working at two different mixing rates (1000 and 8000 rpm), for periods of 1 and 10 min. Filtration measurements were taken and the corresponding filtration curves obtained. Finally, the desorptivity (S) of the filtration cakes was calculated and correlated to the textural characteristics of the materials, the solid fraction and mixing conditions. Filtration behaviour of the dispersions depended on all three of these factors. Laminar dispersions presented lower S values than fibrous dispersions. In the 2% w/v dispersions the bridging forces between particles did not permit formation of an interconnected network as in 10% w/v dispersions and, consequently, filtration times increased with the solid fraction (i.e. S values decreased). Regarding stability to pH changes, the results showed that filtration behaviour was highly sensitive to basic pH in the fibrous clay dispersions and almost insensitive in the laminar clay dispersions.

Hydrologic Modeling and Parameter Estimation under Data Scarcity for Java Island, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yanto, M.; Livneh, B.; Rajagopalan, B.; Kasprzyk, J. R.

2015-12-01

The Indonesian island of Java is routinely subjected to intense flooding, drought and related natural hazards, resulting in severe social and economic impacts. Although an improved understanding of the island's hydrology would help mitigate these risks, data scarcity issues make the modeling challenging. To this end, we developed a hydrological representation of Java using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, to simulate the hydrologic processes of several watersheds across the island. We measured the model performance using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) at monthly time step. Data scarcity and quality issues for precipitation and streamflow warranted the application of a quality control procedure to data ensure consistency among watersheds resulting in 7 watersheds. To optimize the model performance, the calibration parameters were estimated using Borg Multi Objective Evolutionary Algorithm (Borg MOEA), which offers efficient searching of the parameter space, adaptive population sizing and local optima escape facility. The result shows that calibration performance is best (NSE ~ 0.6 - 0.9) in the eastern part of the domain and moderate (NSE ~ 0.3 - 0.5) in the western part of the island. The validation results are lower (NSE ~ 0.1 - 0.5) and (NSE ~ 0.1 - 0.4) in the east and west, respectively. We surmise that the presence of outliers and stark differences in the climate between calibration and validation periods in the western watersheds are responsible for low NSE in this region. In addition, we found that approximately 70% of total errors were contributed by less than 20% of total data. The spatial variability of model performance suggests the influence of both topographical and hydroclimatic controls on the hydrological processes. Most watersheds in eastern part perform better in wet season and vice versa for the western part. This modeling framework is one of the first attempts at comprehensively simulating the hydrology in this maritime, tropical continent and, offers insights for skillful hydrologic projections crucial for natural hazard mitigation.

Effects of Climate Change on Flood Frequency in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gergel, D. R.; Stumbaugh, M. R.; Lee, S. Y.; Nijssen, B.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2014-12-01

A key concern about climate change as related to water resources is the potential for changes in hydrologic extremes, including flooding. We explore changes in flood frequency in the Pacific Northwest using downscaled output from ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) for historical forcings (1950-2005) and future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 (2006-2100). We use archived output from the Integrated Scenarios Project (ISP) (http://maca.northwestknowledge.net/), which uses the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method for statistical downscaling. The MACA-downscaled GCM output was then used to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a 1/16th degree spatial resolution and a daily time step. For each of the 238 HUC-08 areas within the Pacific Northwest (USGS Hydrologic Region 15), we computed, from the ISP archive, the series of maximum daily runoff values (surrogate for the annual maximum flood), and then the mean annual flood. Finally, we computed the ratios of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 mean annual floods to their corresponding values for the historical period. We evaluate spatial patterns in the results. For snow-dominated watersheds, the changes are dominated by reductions in flood frequency in basins that currently have spring-dominant floods, and increases in snow affected basins with fall-dominant floods. In low elevation basins west of the Cascades, changes in flooding are more directly related to changes in precipitation extremes. We further explore the nature of these effects by evaluating the mean Julian day of the annual maximum flood for each HUC-08 and how this changes between the historical and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

Modelling spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic impacts under climate changes over the Nenjiang River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hao; Zhang, Wanchang

2017-10-01

The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model was adopted for investigating spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic impacts of climate change over the Nenjiang River Basin (NRB) based on a set of gridded forcing dataset at 1/12th degree resolution from 1970 to 2013. Basin-scale changes in the input forcing data and the simulated hydrological variables of the NRB, as well as station-scale changes in discharges for three major hydrometric stations were examined, which suggested that the model was performed fairly satisfactory in reproducing the observed discharges, meanwhile, the snow cover and evapotranspiration in temporal and spatial patterns were simulated reasonably corresponded to the remotely sensed ones. Wetland maps produced by multi-sources satellite images covering the entire basin between 1978 and 2008 were also utilized for investigating the responses and feedbacks of hydrological regimes on wetland dynamics. Results revealed that significant decreasing trends appeared in annual, spring and autumn streamflow demonstrated strong affection of precipitation and temperature changes over the study watershed, and the effects of climate change on the runoff reduction varied in the sub-basin area over different time scales. The proportion of evapotranspiration to precipitation characterized several severe fluctuations in droughts and floods took place in the region, which implied the enhanced sensitiveness and vulnerability of hydrologic regimes to changing environment of the region. Furthermore, it was found that the different types of wetlands undergone quite unique variation features with the varied hydro-meteorological conditions over the region, such as precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. This study provided effective scientific basis for water resource managers to develop effective eco-environment management plans and strategies that address the consequences of climate changes.

21 CFR 520.2640 - Tylosin.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

...)(vi)(c) of this chapter. (4) Honey bees—(i) Amount. Mix 200 milligrams tylosin in 20 grams... larvae). (iii) Limitations. The drug should be fed early in the spring or fall and consumed by the bees...

Crystal structure of the human adenovirus proteinase with its 11 amino acid cofactor.

PubMed Central

Ding, J; McGrath, W J; Sweet, R M; Mangel, W F

1996-01-01

The three-dimensional structure of the human adenovirus-2 proteinase complexed with its 11 amino acid cofactor, pVIc, was determined at 2.6 A resolution by X-ray crystallographic analysis. The fold of this protein has not been seen before. However, it represents an example of either subtly divergent or powerfully convergent evolution, because the active site contains a Cys-His-Glu triplet and oxyanion hole in an arrangement similar to that in papain. Thus, the adenovirus proteinase represents a new, fifth group of enzymes that contain catalytic triads. pVIc, which extends a beta-sheet in the main chain, is distant from the active site, yet its binding increases the catalytic rate constant 300-fold for substrate hydrolysis. The structure reveals several potential targets for antiviral therapy. Images PMID:8617222

Decreasing Agricultural Irrigation has not reversed Groundwater Depletion in the Yellow River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Z.; Xie, X.; Zhu, B.

2017-12-01

Agricultural irrigation is considered as the major water use sector accounting for over 60% of the global freshwater withdrawals. Especially in the arid and semiarid areas, irrigation from groundwater storage substantially sustain crop growth and food security. China's Yellow River Basin (YRB) is a typical arid and semiarid area with average annual precipitation about 450 mm. In this basin, more than 52 million hm2 of arable land needs irrigation for planting wheat, cotton, paddy rice etc, and groundwater contributes over one-third irrigation water. However, agricultural irrigation remained a certain level or decreased to some degree due to water-saving technologies and returning farmland to forest projects. Then an interesting question arises: has the groundwater storage (GWS) in YRB kept a consistent variation with the agricultural irrigation? In this study, to address this question, we employed multi-source data from ground measurements, remote sensing monitoring and large-scale hydrological modeling. Specifically, groundwater storage variation was identified using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data and ground observations, and groundwater recharge was estimated based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) modeling. Results indicated that GWS in YRB still holds a significant depletion with a rate of about -3 mm per year during the past decade, which was consistently demonstrated by the GRACE and the ground observations. Ground water recharge shows negligible upward trends despite climate change. The roles of different sectors contributing to groundwater depletion have changed. Agricultural irrigation accounting for over 60% of groundwater depletion, but its impact decreased. However, the domestic and the industrial purposes play an increasing role in shaping groundwater depletion.

Software List.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Computers in Chemical Education Newsletter, 1984

1984-01-01

Lists and briefly describes computer programs recently added to those currently available from Project SERAPHIM. Program name, subject, hardware, author, supplier, and current cost are provided in separate listings for Apple, Atari, Pet, VIC-20, TRS-80, and IBM-PC. (JN)

Reconstruction of droughts in India using multiple land-surface models (1951-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Vimal; Shah, Reepal; Azhar, Syed; Shah, Harsh; Modi, Parth; Kumar, Rohini

2018-04-01

India has witnessed some of the most severe historical droughts in the current decade, and severity, frequency, and areal extent of droughts have been increasing. As a large part of the population of India is dependent on agriculture, soil moisture drought affecting agricultural activities (crop yields) has significant impacts on socio-economic conditions. Due to limited observations, soil moisture is generally simulated using land-surface hydrological models (LSMs); however, these LSM outputs have uncertainty due to many factors, including errors in forcing data and model parameterization. Here we reconstruct agricultural drought events over India during the period of 1951-2015 based on simulated soil moisture from three LSMs, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), the Noah, and the Community Land Model (CLM). Based on simulations from the three LSMs, we find that major drought events occurred in 1987, 2002, and 2015 during the monsoon season (June through September). During the Rabi season (November through February), major soil moisture droughts occurred in 1966, 1973, 2001, and 2003. Soil moisture droughts estimated from the three LSMs are comparable in terms of their spatial coverage; however, differences are found in drought severity. Moreover, we find a higher uncertainty in simulated drought characteristics over a large part of India during the major crop-growing season (Rabi season, November to February: NDJF) compared to those of the monsoon season (June to September: JJAS). Furthermore, uncertainty in drought estimates is higher for severe and localized droughts. Higher uncertainty in the soil moisture droughts is largely due to the difference in model parameterizations (especially soil depth), resulting in different persistence of soil moisture simulated by the three LSMs. Our study highlights the importance of accounting for the LSMs' uncertainty and consideration of the multi-model ensemble system for the real-time monitoring and prediction of drought over India.

Detecting climate change oriented and human induced changes in stream temperature across the Southeastern U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Voisin, N.; Cheng, Y.; Niemeyer, R. J.; Nijssen, B.; Yearsley, J. R.; Zhou, T.

2017-12-01

In many areas, climate change is expected to alter the flow regime and increase stream temperature, especially during summer low flow periods. During these low flow periods, water management increases flows in order to sustain human activities such as water for irrigation and hydroelectric power generation. Water extraction from rivers during warm season can increase stream temperature while reservoir regulation may cool downstream river temperatures by releasing cool water from deep layers. Thus, it is reasonable to hypothesize that water management changes the sensitivity of the stream temperature regime to climate change when compared to unmanaged resources. The time of emergence of change refers to the point in time when observations, or model simulations, show statistically significant changes from a given baseline period, i.e. above natural variability. Here we aim to address two questions by investigating the time of emergence of changes in stream temperature in the southeastern United States: what is the sensitivity of stream temperature under regulated flow conditions to climate change and what is the contribution of water management in increasing or decreasing stream temperature sensitivity to climate change. We simulate regulated flow by using runoff from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model as input into a large scale river routing and reservoir model MOSART-WM. The River Basin Model (RBM), a distributed stream temperature model, includes a two-layer thermal stratification module to simulate stream temperature in regulated river systems. We evaluate the timing of emergence of changes in flow and stream temperature based on climate projections from two representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We analyze the difference in emergence of change between natural and regulated streamflow. Insights will be provided toward applications for multiple sectors of activities including electrical resources adequacy studies over the southeastern U.S.

A first large-scale flood inundation forecasting model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schumann, Guy J-P; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Voisin, Nathalie

2013-11-04

At present continental to global scale flood forecasting focusses on predicting at a point discharge, with little attention to the detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation is actually the variable of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a first large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas and at continental scales. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River in southeast Africa to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. The inundation model domainmore » has a surface area of approximately 170k km2. ECMWF meteorological data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) macro-scale hydrological model which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of the 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of many river channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst at the same time representing the floodplain at an appropriate and efficient scale. The modeling system was first calibrated using water levels on the main channel from the ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimeter and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of about 1 km (one model resolution) compared to an observed flood edge of the event. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km2. However, initial model test runs in forecast mode revealed that it is crucial to account for basin-wide hydrological response time when assessing lead time performances notwithstanding structural limitations in the hydrological model and possibly large inaccuracies in precipitation data.« less

21 CFR 520.2640 - Tylosin.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... phosphate medicated feed as in § 558.625(f)(1)(vi)(c) of this chapter. (4) Honey bees—(i) Amount. Mix 200... spring or fall and consumed by the bees before the main honey flow begins, to avoid contamination of...

21 CFR 520.2640 - Tylosin.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... phosphate medicated feed as in § 558.625(f)(1)(vi)(c) of this chapter. (4) Honey bees—(i) Amount. Mix 200... spring or fall and consumed by the bees before the main honey flow begins, to avoid contamination of...

Efficient oxidation of alcohols to carbonyl compounds with molecular oxygen catalyzed by N-hydroxyphthalimide combined with a Co species

PubMed

Iwahama; Yoshino; Keitoku; Sakaguchi; Ishii

2000-10-06

Highly efficient catalytic oxidation of alcohols with molecular oxygen by N-hydroxyphthalimide (NHPI) combined with a Co species was developed. The oxidation of 2-octanol in the presence of catalytic amounts of NHPI and Co(OAc)2 under atmospheric dioxygen in AcOEt at 70 degrees C gave 2-octanone in 93% yield. The oxidation was significantly enhanced by adding a small amount of benzoic acid to proceed smoothly even at room temperature. Primary alcohols were oxidized by NHPI in the absence of any metal catalyst to form the corresponding carboxylic acids in good yields. In the oxidation of terminal vic-diols such as 1,2-butanediol, carbon-carbon bond cleavage was induced to give one carbon less carboxylic acids such as propionic acid, while internal vic-diols were selectively oxidized to 1,2-diketones.

Phylogenetic and pathogenic characterization of a pigeon paramyxovirus type 1 isolate reveals cross-species transmission and potential outbreak risks in the northwest region of China.

PubMed

Ren, Shanhui; Wang, Chongyang; Zhang, Xue; Zhao, Lei; Wang, Xiangwei; Yao, Wei; Han, Qingsong; Wang, Yanhong; Fan, Mengfei; Gao, Xiaolong; Xiao, Sa; Wang, Xinglong; Yang, Zengqi

2017-09-01

Pigeon paramyxovirus type-1 (PPMV-1) is enzootic in pigeons, causing severe economic loss in the poultry industry in many countries. However, the exact epidemic process of PPMV-1 transmission is still unclear. In this study, we analyzed the complete genome of the PPMV-1/SX-01/15 isolate. Sequence results show that the virus genome contains 15,192 nucleotides, with the gene order 3'-NP-P-M-F-HN-L-5'. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that this genome belongs to subgenotype VIc in class II. The mean death time (MDT) and intracerebral pathogenicity index (ICPI) were 62.4 h and 1.13, respectively, indicating that this isolate is a mesogenic PPMV-1 strain. To our knowledge, this is the first report of a subgenotype VIc mesogenic PPMV-1 strain circulating in commercial pigeon flocks in the northwest region of China. In a comparative infection experiment, the morbidity and mortality rates were 100% and 80%, respectively, in 4-week-old pigeons, whereas they were 50% and 30%, respectively, in 5-week-old chickens. Furthermore, this virus caused severe neurological symptoms in a 4-week-old pigeon and mild neurological symptoms in a 5-week-old chicken. A histopathological examination of the brain showed a classical nonsuppurative encephalitis lesion. The pattern of viral shedding, and viral load, and virus distribution differed between infected chickens and pigeons. Genomic characteristics suggest that there was cross-species transmission of PPMV-1 subgenotype VIc in this region at least from the years 2006 to 2015.

Data Fusion of Gridded Snow Products Enhanced with Terrain Covariates and a Simple Snow Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snauffer, A. M.; Hsieh, W. W.; Cannon, A. J.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic planning requires accurate estimates of regional snow water equivalent (SWE), particularly areas with hydrologic regimes dominated by spring melt. While numerous gridded data products provide such estimates, accurate representations are particularly challenging under conditions of mountainous terrain, heavy forest cover and large snow accumulations, contexts which in many ways define the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada. One promising avenue of improving SWE estimates is a data fusion approach which combines field observations with gridded SWE products and relevant covariates. A base artificial neural network (ANN) was constructed using three of the best performing gridded SWE products over BC (ERA-Interim/Land, MERRA and GLDAS-2) and simple location and time covariates. This base ANN was then enhanced to include terrain covariates (slope, aspect and Terrain Roughness Index, TRI) as well as a simple 1-layer energy balance snow model driven by gridded bias-corrected ANUSPLIN temperature and precipitation values. The ANN enhanced with all aforementioned covariates performed better than the base ANN, but most of the skill improvement was attributable to the snow model with very little contribution from the terrain covariates. The enhanced ANN improved station mean absolute error (MAE) by an average of 53% relative to the composing gridded products over the province. Interannual peak SWE correlation coefficient was found to be 0.78, an improvement of 0.05 to 0.18 over the composing products. This nonlinear approach outperformed a comparable multiple linear regression (MLR) model by 22% in MAE and 0.04 in interannual correlation. The enhanced ANN has also been shown to estimate better than the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model calibrated and run for four BC watersheds, improving MAE by 22% and correlation by 0.05. The performance improvements of the enhanced ANN are statistically significant at the 5% level across the province and in four out of five physiographic regions.

Toward Improved Parameterization of a Meso-Scale Hydrologic Model in a Discontinuous Permafrost, Boreal Forest Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endalamaw, A. M.; Bolton, W. R.; Young, J. M.; Morton, D.; Hinzman, L. D.

2013-12-01

The sub-arctic environment can be characterized as being located in the zone of discontinuous permafrost. Although the distribution of permafrost is site specific, it dominates many of the hydrologic and ecologic responses and functions including vegetation distribution, stream flow, soil moisture, and storage processes. In this region, the boundaries that separate the major ecosystem types (deciduous dominated and coniferous dominated ecosystems) as well as permafrost (permafrost verses non-permafrost) occur over very short spatial scales. One of the goals of this research project is to improve parameterizations of meso-scale hydrologic models in this environment. Using the Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed (CPCRW) as the test area, simulations of the headwater catchments of varying permafrost and vegetation distributions were performed. CPCRW, located approximately 50 km northeast of Fairbanks, Alaska, is located within the zone of discontinuous permafrost and the boreal forest ecosystem. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was selected as the hydrologic model. In CPCRW, permafrost and coniferous vegetation is generally found on north facing slopes and valley bottoms. Permafrost free soils and deciduous vegetation is generally found on south facing slopes. In this study, hydrologic simulations using fine scale vegetation and soil parameterizations - based upon slope and aspect analysis at a 50 meter resolution - were conducted. Simulations were also conducted using downscaled vegetation from the Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP) (1 km resolution) and soil data sets from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (approximately 9 km resolution). Preliminary simulation results show that soil and vegetation parameterizations based upon fine scale slope/aspect analysis increases the R2 values (0.5 to 0.65 in the high permafrost (53%) basin; 0.43 to 0.56 in the low permafrost (2%) basin) relative to parameterization based on coarse scale data. These results suggest that using fine resolution parameterizations can be used to improve meso-scale hydrological modeling in this region.

ARC-1986-AC86-0746-2

NASA Image and Video Library

1986-10-10

Ames Director William 'Bill' Ballhaus (center left) joins visitor Sir Jeffrey Pope from Royla Aircraft Industry, England (center right) at the NAS Facility Cray 2 computer with Ron Deiss, NAS Deputy Manager (L) and Vic Peterson, Ames Deputy Director (R).

On the Ample Service Assumption of Palm’s Theorem in Inventory Modeling.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-10-03

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Revised Phylogeny and Novel Horizontally Acquired Virulence Determinants of the Model Soft Rot Phytopathogen Pectobacterium wasabiae SCC3193

PubMed Central

Koskinen, Patrik; Nokso-Koivisto, Jussi; Pasanen, Miia; Broberg, Martin; Plyusnin, Ilja; Törönen, Petri; Holm, Liisa; Pirhonen, Minna; Palva, E. Tapio

2012-01-01

Soft rot disease is economically one of the most devastating bacterial diseases affecting plants worldwide. In this study, we present novel insights into the phylogeny and virulence of the soft rot model Pectobacterium sp. SCC3193, which was isolated from a diseased potato stem in Finland in the early 1980s. Genomic approaches, including proteome and genome comparisons of all sequenced soft rot bacteria, revealed that SCC3193, previously included in the species Pectobacterium carotovorum, can now be more accurately classified as Pectobacterium wasabiae. Together with the recently revised phylogeny of a few P. carotovorum strains and an increasing number of studies on P. wasabiae, our work indicates that P. wasabiae has been unnoticed but present in potato fields worldwide. A combination of genomic approaches and in planta experiments identified features that separate SCC3193 and other P. wasabiae strains from the rest of soft rot bacteria, such as the absence of a type III secretion system that contributes to virulence of other soft rot species. Experimentally established virulence determinants include the putative transcriptional regulator SirB, two partially redundant type VI secretion systems and two horizontally acquired clusters (Vic1 and Vic2), which contain predicted virulence genes. Genome comparison also revealed other interesting traits that may be related to life in planta or other specific environmental conditions. These traits include a predicted benzoic acid/salicylic acid carboxyl methyltransferase of eukaryotic origin. The novelties found in this work indicate that soft rot bacteria have a reservoir of unknown traits that may be utilized in the poorly understood latent stage in planta. The genomic approaches and the comparison of the model strain SCC3193 to other sequenced Pectobacterium strains, including the type strain of P. wasabiae, provides a solid basis for further investigation of the virulence, distribution and phylogeny of soft rot bacteria and, potentially, other bacteria as well. PMID:23133391

VICS-120 - A tube-vehicle system test facility.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marte, J. E.

1973-01-01

Description of a large test facility for carrying out research in support of the aerodynamic and ventilation section of a handbook on subway design. The facility described is vertically oriented and has a test section with a nominal inside diameter of 2 in. and a length of 109 ft. It is capable of operating at Reynolds numbers up to full-scale (60,000,000) under open-end tube conditions. The facility is distinguished by a high degree of flexibility in configuration and operational limits. Details are given concerning the plenum assembly, the test section tubes, the scaffold, the instrumentation, the model launcher, the model arrestor, and the models themselves. A step-by-step account is given of the operation of the facility, and a brief sample of the type of data obtained from the facility is presented.

Advancing Climate Change and Impacts Science Through Climate Informatics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenhardt, W.; Pouchard, L. C.; King, A. W.; Branstetter, M. L.; Kao, S.; Wang, D.

2010-12-01

This poster will outline the work to date on developing a climate informatics capability at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The central proposition of this effort is that the application of informatics and information science to the domain of climate change science is an essential means to bridge the realm of high performance computing (HPC) and domain science. The goal is to facilitate knowledge capture and the creation of new scientific insights. For example, a climate informatics capability will help with the understanding and use of model results in domain sciences that were not originally in the scope. From there, HPC can also benefit from feedback as the new approaches may lead to better parameterization in the models. In this poster we will summarize the challenges associated with climate change science that can benefit from the systematic application of informatics and we will highlight our work to date in creating the climate informatics capability to address these types of challenges. We have identified three areas that are particularly challenging in the context of climate change science: 1) integrating model and observational data across different spatial and temporal scales, 2) model linkages, i.e. climate models linked to other models such as hydrologic models, and 3) model diagnostics. Each of these has a methodological component and an informatics component. Our project under way at ORNL seeks to develop new approaches and tools in the context of linking climate change and water issues. We are basing our work on the following four use cases: 1) Evaluation/test of CCSM4 biases in hydrology (precipitation, soil water, runoff, river discharge) over the Rio Grande Basin. User: climate modeler. 2) Investigation of projected changes in hydrology of Rio Grande Basin using the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity Macroscale) Hydrologic Model. User: watershed hydrologist/modeler. 3) Impact of climate change on agricultural productivity of the Rio Grande Basin. User: climate impact scientist, agricultural economist. 4) Renegotiation of the 1944 “Treaty for the Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande”. User: A US State Department analyst or their counterpart in Mexico.

Short-term Drought Prediction in India.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, R.; Mishra, V.

2014-12-01

Medium range soil moisture drought forecast helps in decision making in the field of agriculture and water resources management. Part of skills in medium range drought forecast comes from precipitation. Proper evaluation and correction of precipitation forecast may improve drought predictions. Here, we evaluate skills of ensemble mean precipitation forecast from Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) for medium range drought predictions over India. Climatological mean (CLIM) of historic data (OBS) are used as reference forecast to evaluate GEFS precipitation forecast. Analysis was conducted based on forecast initiated on 1st and 15th dates of each month for lead up to 7-days. Correlation and RMSE were used to estimate skill scores of accumulated GEFS precipitation forecast from lead 1 to 7-days. Volumetric indices based on the 2X2 contingency table were used to check missed and falsely predicted historic volume of daily precipitation from GEFS in different regions and at different thresholds. GEFS showed improvement in correlation of 0.44 over CLIM during the monsoon season and 0.55 during the winter season. Lower RMSE was showed by GEFS than CLIM. Ratio of RMSE in GEFS and CLIM comes out as 0.82 and 0.4 (perfect skill is at zero) during the monsoon and winter season, respectively. We finally used corrected GEFS forecast to derive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which was used to develop short-term forecast of hydrologic and agricultural (soil moisture) droughts in India.

Research Using ASDC Data Products

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2013-04-18

Research using ASDC Data Products   Please Contact Us if you would like to contribute your research.     "An investigation into the performance of ... data," (PDF 4MB) Stuart A. Young, C.S.I.R.O. Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC, Australia. Photosynthetically Active ...

CHRIS: Hazardous Chemical Data

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-10-01

CPLORD-O-TOLUICIfE FAST RED Z& BASE = ’-1-ITRCAMILINE FERMENTAITION ALCOH!OL - ETHYL ALCOHOL FERMENTATION AMYL ALCOHCL -ISCANYL ALCOJIGI FERMENTATION BUTYL...ACID ETHYLENEDIAMINE IETRACETIC ACID VIC-H-XYLENOL XYLENOL VIENNA GREEN COPPER ACETOARSE1ITE VILRATHANE 4300 -CIPHENYLETHAME01ISOCYANATE (MDIl VINEGAR

A Global Drought and Flood Catalogue for the past 100 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; He, X.; Peng, L.; Pan, M.; Fisher, C. K.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

Extreme hydrological events cause the most impacts of natural hazards globally, impacting on a wide range of sectors including, most prominently, agriculture, food security and water availability and quality, but also on energy production, forestry, health, transportation and fisheries. Understanding how floods and droughts intersect, and have changed in the past provides the basis for understanding current risk and how it may change in the future. To do this requires an understanding of the mechanisms associated with events and therefore their predictability, attribution of long-term changes in risk, and quantification of projections of changes in the future. Of key importance are long-term records of relevant variables so that risk can be quantified more accurately, given the growing acknowledgement that risk is not stationary under long-term climate variability and climate change. To address this, we develop a catalogue of drought and flood events based on land surface and hydrodynamic modeling, forced by a hybrid meteorological dataset that draws from the continuity and coverage of reanalysis, and satellite datasets, merged with global gauge databases. The meteorological dataset is corrected for temporal inhomogeneities, spurious trends and variable inter-dependencies to ensure long-term consistency, as well as realistic representation of short-term variability and extremes. The VIC land surface model is run for the past 100 years at 0.25-degree resolution for global land areas. The VIC runoff is then used to drive the CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic model to obtain information on flood inundation risk. The model outputs are compared to satellite based estimates of flood and drought conditions and the observational flood record. The data are analyzed in terms of the spatio-temporal characteristics of large-scale flood and drought events with a particular focus on characterizing the long-term variability in risk. Significant changes in risk occur on multi-decadal time scales and are mostly associated with variability in the North Atlantic and Pacific. The catalogue can be used for analysis of extreme events, risk assessment, and as a benchmark for model evaluation.

Water Budget Estimation by Assimilating Multiple Observations and Hydrological Modeling Using Constrained Ensemble Kalman Filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, M.; Wood, E. F.

2004-05-01

This study explores a method to estimate various components of the water cycle (ET, runoff, land storage, etc.) based on a number of different info sources, including both observations and observation-enhanced model simulations. Different from existing data assimilations, this constrained Kalman filtering approach keeps the water budget perfectly closed while updating the states of the underlying model (VIC model) optimally using observations. Assimilating different data sources in this way has several advantages: (1) physical model is included to make estimation time series smooth, missing-free, and more physically consistent; (2) uncertainties in the model and observations are properly addressed; (3) model is constrained by observation thus to reduce model biases; (4) balance of water is always preserved along the assimilation. Experiments are carried out in Southern Great Plain region where necessary observations have been collected. This method may also be implemented in other applications with physical constraints (e.g. energy cycles) and at different scales.

Predictors of High Streamflow Events in the Fraser River Basin of British Columbia, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curry, C.

2016-12-01

The Fraser River basin (FRB) of British Columbia is one of the largest and most important watersheds in Western North America, and is home to a rich diversity of biological species and economic assets that depend implicitly upon its extensive riverine habitats. The hydrology of the FRB is dominated by snow accumulation and melt processes, leading to a prominent annual peak streamflow invariably occurring in June-July. However, while annual peak daily streamflow (APDF) during the spring freshet in the FRB is historically well correlated with basin-averaged, annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWEmax), there are numerous occurrences of anomalously large APDF in below- or near-normal SWEmax years, some of which have resulted in damaging floods in the region. An imperfect understanding of which other climatic factors contribute to these anomalously large APDFs complicates future projections of streamflow magnitude and frequency. We employ the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) process-based hydrological model driven by both observations and an ensemble of CMIP3 climate models in an attempt to discover the proximate causes of anomalous APDF events in the FRB. At several hydrometric stations representing a range of elevations, the relative importance of a set of predictors characterizing the magnitude and timing of rainfall, snowfall, and temperature is examined within a regression framework. The results indicate that next to the magnitude of SWEmax, the rate of warming subsequent to the date of SWEmax is the most influential variable for predicting APDF magnitudes in the lower FRB. Finally, the role of large-scale climate modes of variability for APDF magnitude and timing in the basin will be briefly discussed.

Impacts of Climate Change on Management of the Colorado River Reservoir System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, N. S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2002-05-01

The Colorado River system provides water supply to a large area of the interior west. It drains a mostly arid area, with naturalized flow (effects of reservoirs and diversions removed) averaging only 40 mm/yr over the 630,000 km2 drainage area at the mouth of the river. Total reservoir storage (mostly behind Hoover and Glen Canyon Dams) is equivalent to over four times the mean flow of the river. Runoff is heavily dominated by high elevation source areas in the Rocky Mountain headwaters, and the seasonal runoff pattern throughout the Colorado basin is strongly dominated by winter snow accumulation and spring melt. Because of the arid nature of the basin and the low runoff per unit area, performance of the reservoir system is potentially susceptible to changes in streamflow that would result from global warming, although those manifestations are somewhat different than elsewhere in the west where reservoir storage is relatively much smaller. We evaluate, using the macroscale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, possible changes in streamflow over the next century using three 100-year ensemble climate simulations of the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model corresponding to business-as-usual (BAU) future greenhouse gas emissions. Single ensemble simulations of the U.K. Hadley Center, and the Max Planck Institute, are considered as well. For most of the climate scenarios, the peak runoff shifts about one month earlier relative to the recent past. However, unlike reservoir systems elsewhere in the west, the effect of these timing shifts is largely mitigated by the size of the reservoir system, and changes in reservoir system reliability (for agricultural water supply and hydropower production) are dominated by streamflow volume shifts, which vary considerably across the climate scenarios.

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Tourism-Dependent Communities in the Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chin, N.; Day, J.; Sydnor, S.; Cherkauer, K. A.

2013-12-01

Tourism is an essential element of the Laurentian Great Lakes economy as well as one of the sectors expected to be affected most by climate change, particularly through extreme weather events. While studies looking at climate change impacts on the Great Lakes tourism, specifically, are limited, the results of other studies suggest that both summer tourism activities, such as beach-going, and winter tourism activities, such as skiing and snowboarding, could feel the effects of a changing climate. The purpose of this study was to determine how existing data and models might be used to predict the potential impacts of climate change on tourism-dependent communities at the local scale. Future climate projections and variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model simulations based on historical climate data were used to quantify trends in environmental metrics with a potential influence on tourism for several tourism-dependent Great Lakes communities. The results of this research show that the potential impacts of climate change vary at the local scale and could require different adaptation strategies for different communities and for different sectors of the tourism industry. For example, communities in the northern parts of the Great Lakes may find benefit in a greater diversification of their tourism industries, given that warming temperatures could be beneficial for summer tourism activities, while communities in the southern parts of the Great Lakes may have to find other ways to cope with climate conditions that are less conducive to summer tourism activities. Stakeholder input could also help inform the process of producing scientific information that is useful to policymakers when it comes to tourism sector-related decision making.

Effects of Land Use Change on Evapotranspiration and Water Yield in the Great Lakes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, D.; Cherkauer, K. A.

2005-12-01

Human activities have affected the exchange of energy and water between atmosphere and land surface through land use change. Conversion of large regions of pre-settlement forest and grassland to a majority cropland cover in the Great Lakes region has resulted in regional scale changes to hydrologic responses. Understanding the impact of historic land use change is important for management of future resources. Effects of land use change on the water and energy cycle of three Great Lakes states: Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, are analyzed using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) meteorological and soil data as well as pre-settlement and modern vegetation data taken from the USGS Land Use History of North American (LUHNA) were used as model input. Default vegetation input parameters were adjusted for the region based on a review of published studies. Results from a single grid cell vegetation sensitivity test show that on an average annual basis, forests transpire more than cropland and cropland more than grassland due to seasonal variations in Leaf Area Index (LAI) and stomatal resistances of vegetations. The hydrologic impact of region wide land use change was then analyzed by comparing simulations using both pre-settlement and current vegetation cover but the same meteorological forcings. Simulated changes resulting from land cover change vary with season and vegetation types. Reduction in forest cover increases water yield by decreasing evapotranspiration. Conversion between forest types resulted only in small differences in evaporation and water fluxes response. The most significant hydrologic changes were located in the southern part of the region where land use change has been primarily forest converted to cropland.

Preserving the world second largest hypersaline lake under future irrigation and climate change.

PubMed

Shadkam, Somayeh; Ludwig, Fulco; van Vliet, Michelle T H; Pastor, Amandine; Kabat, Pavel

2016-07-15

Iran Urmia Lake, the world second largest hypersaline lake, has been largely desiccated over the last two decades resulting in socio-environmental consequences similar or even larger than the Aral Sea disaster. To rescue the lake a new water management plan has been proposed, a rapid 40% decline in irrigation water use replacing a former plan which intended to develop reservoirs and irrigation. However, none of these water management plans, which have large socio-economic impacts, have been assessed under future changes in climate and water availability. By adapting a method of environmental flow requirements (EFRs) for hypersaline lakes, we estimated annually 3.7·10(9)m(3) water is needed to preserve Urmia Lake. Then, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was forced with bias-corrected climate model outputs for both the lowest (RCP2.6) and highest (RCP8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios to estimate future water availability and impacts of water management strategies. Results showed a 10% decline in future water availability in the basin under RCP2.6 and 27% under RCP8.5. Our results showed that if future climate change is highly limited (RCP2.6) inflow can be just enough to meet the EFRs by implementing the reduction irrigation plan. However, under more rapid climate change scenario (RCP8.5) reducing irrigation water use will not be enough to save the lake and more drastic measures are needed. Our results showed that future water management plans are not robust under climate change in this region. Therefore, an integrated approach of future land-water use planning and climate change adaptation is therefore needed to improve future water security and to reduce the desiccating of this hypersaline lake. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Field methods to measure surface displacement and strain with the Video Image Correlation method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maddux, Gary A.; Horton, Charles M.; Mcneill, Stephen R.; Lansing, Matthew D.

1994-01-01

The objective of this project was to develop methods and application procedures to measure displacement and strain fields during the structural testing of aerospace components using paint speckle in conjunction with the Video Image Correlation (VIC) system.

Veterinary Immunology Committee Toolkit Workshop 2010: Progress and plans

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Third Veterinary Immunology Committee (VIC) Toolkit Workshop took place at the Ninth International Veterinary Immunology Symposium (IVIS) in Tokyo, Japan on August 18, 2020. The Workshop built on previous Toolkit Workshops and covered various aspects of reagent development, commercialisation an...

Development of an Experimental African Drought Monitoring and Seasonal Forecasting System: A First Step towards a Global Drought Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Sheffield, J.; Yuan, X.

2012-12-01

Extreme hydrologic events in the form of droughts are a significant source of social and economic damage. Internationally, organizations such as UNESCO, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) have recognized the need for drought monitoring, especially for the developing world where drought has had devastating impacts on local populations through food insecurity and famine. Having the capacity to monitor droughts in real-time, and to provide drought forecasts with sufficient warning will help developing countries and international programs move from the management of drought crises to the management of drought risk. While observation-based assessments, such as those produced by the US Drought Monitor, are effective for monitoring in countries with extensive observation networks (of precipitation in particular), their utility is lessened in areas (e.g., Africa) where observing networks are sparse. For countries with sparse networks and weak reporting systems, remote sensing observations can provide the real-time data for the monitoring of drought. More importantly, these datasets are now available for at least a decade, which allows for the construction of a climatology against which current conditions can be compared. In this presentation we discuss the development of our multi-lingual experimental African Drought Monitor (ADM) (see http://hydrology.princeton.edu/~nchaney/ADM_ML). At the request of UNESCO, the ADM system has been installed at AGRHYMET, a regional climate and agricultural center in Niamey, Niger and at the ICPAC climate center in Nairobi, Kenya. The ADM system leverages off our U.S. drought monitoring and forecasting system (http://hydrology.princeton.edu/forecasting) that uses the NLDAS data to force the VIC land surface model (LSM) at 1/8th degree spatial resolution for the estimation of our soil moisture drought index (Sheffield et al., 2004). For the seasonal forecast of drought, CFSv2 climate forecasts are bias corrected, downscaled and used as inputs to the VIC LSM as well as forecasts based on ESP and CPC official seasonal outlook. For Africa, data from a combination of remote sensing (TMPA-based precipitation, land cover characteristics) and GFS analysis fields (temperature and wind) are used to monitor drought using our soil moisture drought index as well as 1, 3 and and 6-month SPI. River discharge is also estimated at over 900 locations. Seasonal forecasts have been developed using CFSv2 climate forecasts following the approaches used over CONUS. We will discuss the performance of the system to evaluate the depiction of drought over various scales, from regional to the African continent, and over a number of years to capture multiple drought events. Furthermore, the hindcasts from the seasonal drought forecast system are analyzed to assess the ability of seasonal climate models to detect drought on-set and its recovery. Finally, we will discuss whether our ADM provides a pathway to a Global Drought Information System, a goal of the WCRP Drought Task Force.

The introduction of buprenorphine-naloxone film in opioid substitution therapy in Australia: Uptake and issues arising from changing buprenorphine formulations.

PubMed

Larance, Briony; Dietze, Paul; Ali, Robert; Lintzeris, Nicholas; White, Nancy; Jenkinson, Rebecca; Degenhardt, Louisa

2015-11-01

Buprenorphine-naloxone (BNX) film for opioid dependence treatment was introduced in Australia in 2011. A key difference in State policy approaches saw transfer from BNX tablets to BNX film mandated in South Australia (SA) with New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria (VIC) having less stringent policies. This study examined (i) how initiations and transfers were implemented, (ii) the profile and predictors of adverse effects as self-reported by BNX film clients, and (iii) dosing issues. Survey of 334 buprenorphine (BPN), BNX tablet and BNX film clients and semi-structured interviews with 39 key experts (KEs) in 2012. Comparisons are made between clients interviewed in SA versus NSW and VIC combined. Among the 180 current BNX film clients, 23% started treatment on BNX film, 18% requested a transfer to BNX film and 59% (n = 106) reported their clinic/prescriber recommended transfer to BNX film. Among clients who were offered but refused a transfer to BNX film (n = 66), the most common reason was 'I am happy with my current treatment and do not see a reason to change' (53%). Some opioid substitution therapy clients and KE viewed transfers as 'forced' (i.e. no choice of buprenorphine formulation). Multivariable regression showed residing in SA (vs. NSW/VIC) and a shorter length of current treatment episode were associated with more BNX film-attributed adverse effects but clinic/prescriber-recommended transfer was not. The introduction of BNX film in Australia varied across States. A perception of restricted choice in medication may have undermined initial acceptance in SA. © 2015 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Protective role of Smad6 in inflammation-induced valvular cell calcification

PubMed Central

Li, Xin; Lim, Jina J.; Lu, Jinxiu; Pedego, Taylor M.; Demer, Linda; Tintut, Yin

2016-01-01

Calcific aortic vascular and valvular disease (CAVD) is associated with hyperlipidemia, the effects of which occur through chronic inflammation. Evidence suggests that inhibitory small mothers against decapentaplegic (I-Smads; Smad6 and 7) regulate valve embryogenesis and may serve as a mitigating factor in CAVD. However, whether I-Smads regulate inflammation-induced calcific vasculopathy is not clear. Therefore, we investigated the role of I-Smads in atherosclerotic calcification. Results showed that expression of Smad6, but not Smad7, was reduced in aortic and valve tissues of hyperlipidemic compared with normolipemic mice, while expression of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-a) was upregulated. To test whether the effects are in response to inflammatory cytokines, we isolated murine aortic valve leaflets and cultured valvular interstitial cells (mVIC) from the normolipemic mice. By immunochemistry, mVICs were strongly positive for vimentin, weakly positive for smooth muscle alpha actin, and negative for an endothelial cell marker. TNF-a upregulated alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity and matrix mineralization in mVICs. By gene expression analysis, TNF-a significantly upregulated bone morphogenetic protein 2 (BMP-2) expression while downregulating Smad6 expression. Smad7 expression was not significantly affected. To further test the role of Smad6 on TNF-a-induced valvular cell calcification, we knocked down Smad6 expression using lentiviral transfection. In cells transfected with Smad6 shRNA, TNF-a further augmented ALP activity, expression of BMP-2, Wnt- and redox-regulated genes, and matrix mineralization compared with the control cells. These findings suggest that TNF-a induces valvular and vascular cell calcification, in part, by specifically reducing the expression of a BMP-2 signaling inhibitor, Smad6. PMID:25864564

Protective Role of Smad6 in Inflammation-Induced Valvular Cell Calcification.

PubMed

Li, Xin; Lim, Jina; Lu, Jinxiu; Pedego, Taylor M; Demer, Linda; Tintut, Yin

2015-10-01

Calcific aortic vascular and valvular disease (CAVD) is associated with hyperlipidemia, the effects of which occur through chronic inflammation. Evidence suggests that inhibitory small mothers against decapentaplegic (I-Smads; Smad6 and 7) regulate valve embryogenesis and may serve as a mitigating factor in CAVD. However, whether I-Smads regulate inflammation-induced calcific vasculopathy is not clear. Therefore, we investigated the role of I-Smads in atherosclerotic calcification. Results showed that expression of Smad6, but not Smad7, was reduced in aortic and valve tissues of hyperlipidemic compared with normolipemic mice, while expression of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) was upregulated. To test whether the effects are in response to inflammatory cytokines, we isolated murine aortic valve leaflets and cultured valvular interstitial cells (mVIC) from the normolipemic mice. By immunochemistry, mVICs were strongly positive for vimentin, weakly positive for smooth muscle α actin, and negative for an endothelial cell marker. TNF-α upregulated alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity and matrix mineralization in mVICs. By gene expression analysis, TNF-α significantly upregulated bone morphogenetic protein 2 (BMP-2) expression while downregulating Smad6 expression. Smad7 expression was not significantly affected. To further test the role of Smad6 on TNF-α-induced valvular cell calcification, we knocked down Smad6 expression using lentiviral transfection. In cells transfected with Smad6 shRNA, TNF-α further augmented ALP activity, expression of BMP-2, Wnt- and redox-regulated genes, and matrix mineralization compared with the control cells. These findings suggest that TNF-α induces valvular and vascular cell calcification, in part, by specifically reducing the expression of a BMP-2 signaling inhibitor, Smad6. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Contractile effects and binding properties of endothelins/sarafotoxins in the guinea pig ileum.

PubMed

Wollberg, Z; Bdolah, A; Galron, R; Sokolovsky, M; Kochva, E

1991-05-30

Seven of the eight known isopeptides of the endothelin/sarafotoxin (ET/SRTX) family were tested on the isolated guinea pig ileum and found to cause a concentration-dependent increase in basal tone. The rate or the amplitude of the spontaneous rhythmic contractions of the ileal smooth muscle were essentially not affected by any of the peptides. The maximum contraction elicited by vasoactive intestinal contractor (VIC) was slightly stronger than that induced by endothelin-1 (ET-1) or sarafotoxin-b (SRTX-b), and significantly stronger than the maximal contractions elicited by sarafotoxin-a (SRTX-a), sarafotoxin-c (SRTX-c), or endothelin-3 (ET-3). Sarafotoxin-d (SRTX-d) caused, essentially, no contraction but a rather marked relaxation. The potencies of the various peptides to induce the increase in tension, in terms of EC50 values (cumulative effective concentrations that induce half-maximum response), ranged between 6 and 95 nM depending on the peptide. VIC, ET-1, SRTX-b and SRTX-a had similar potencies and were significantly more potent than SRTX-c and ET-3. A high concentration of SRTX-b elicited no additional response when applied to the organ bath after one of the other peptides had shown a maximal effect. Binding experiments with ileal membranes revealed similar binding properties for the various peptides. Competition with iodinated SRTX-b showed no meaningful differences between the various peptides. It is concluded that all the ET/SRTX peptides compete for the same receptor subtype in the ileum. In terms of efficacy, VIC can be considered as a full agonist of this receptor, SRTX-d is probably an antagonist, while all the other peptides behave as partial agonists.

Early disease progression in patients with localized natural killer/T-cell lymphoma treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy.

PubMed

Yamaguchi, Motoko; Suzuki, Ritsuro; Kim, Seok Jin; Ko, Young Hyeh; Oguchi, Masahiko; Asano, Naoko; Miyazaki, Kana; Terui, Yasuhiko; Kubota, Nobuko; Maeda, Takeshi; Kobayashi, Yukio; Amaki, Jun; Soejima, Toshinori; Saito, Bungo; Shimoda, Emiko; Fukuhara, Noriko; Tsukamoto, Norifumi; Shimada, Kazuyuki; Choi, Ilseung; Utsumi, Takahiko; Ejima, Yasuo; Kim, Won Seog; Katayama, Naoyuki

2018-03-30

Prognosis of patients with localized nasal extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma, nasal type (ENKL) has been improved by non-anthracycline-containing treatments such as concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). However, some patients experience early disease progression. To clarify the clinical features and outcomes of these patients, data from 165 patients with localized nasal ENKL who were diagnosed between 2000 and 2013 at 31 institutes in Japan and who received radiotherapy with dexamethasone, etoposide, ifosfamide, and carboplatin (RT-DeVIC) were retrospectively analyzed. Progression of disease within 2 years after diagnosis (POD24) was used as the definition of early progression. An independent dataset of 60 patients with localized nasal ENKL who received CCRT at Samsung Medical Center was used in the validation analysis. POD24 was documented in 23% of patients who received RT-DeVIC and in 25% of patients in the validation cohort. Overall survival (OS) from risk-defining events of the POD24 group was inferior to that of the reference group in both cohorts (P < .00001). In the RT-DeVIC cohort, pretreatment elevated levels of serum soluble interleukin-2 receptor (sIL-2R), lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, and detectable Epstein-Barr virus DNA in peripheral blood were associated with POD24. In the validation cohort, no pretreatment clinical factor associated with POD24 was identified. Our study indicates that POD24 is a strong indicator of survival in localized ENKL, despite the different CCRT regimens adopted. In the treatment of localized nasal ENKL, POD24 is useful for identifying patients who have unmet medical needs. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Science published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Cancer Association.

Improving Evapotranspiration Estimates Using Multi-Platform Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knipper, Kyle; Hogue, Terri; Franz, Kristie; Scott, Russell

2016-04-01

Understanding the linkages between energy and water cycles through evapotranspiration (ET) is uniquely challenging given its dependence on a range of climatological parameters and surface/atmospheric heterogeneity. A number of methods have been developed to estimate ET either from primarily remote-sensing observations, in-situ measurements, or a combination of the two. However, the scale of many of these methods may be too large to provide needed information about the spatial and temporal variability of ET that can occur over regions with acute or chronic land cover change and precipitation driven fluxes. The current study aims to improve the spatial and temporal variability of ET utilizing only satellite-based observations by incorporating a potential evapotranspiration (PET) methodology with satellite-based down-scaled soil moisture estimates in southern Arizona, USA. Initially, soil moisture estimates from AMSR2 and SMOS are downscaled to 1km through a triangular relationship between MODIS land surface temperature (MYD11A1), vegetation indices (MOD13Q1/MYD13Q1), and brightness temperature. Downscaled soil moisture values are then used to scale PET to actual ET (AET) at a daily, 1km resolution. Derived AET estimates are compared to observed flux tower estimates, the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) model output (i.e. Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Macroscale Hydrologic Model, Mosiac Model, and Noah Model simulations), the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance Model (SSEBop), and a calibrated empirical ET model created specifically for the region. Preliminary results indicate a strong increase in correlation when incorporating the downscaling technique to original AMSR2 and SMOS soil moisture values, with the added benefit of being able to decipher small scale heterogeneity in soil moisture (riparian versus desert grassland). AET results show strong correlations with relatively low error and bias when compared to flux tower estimates. In addition, AET results show improved bias to those reported by SSEBop, with similar correlations and errors when compared to the empirical ET model. Spatial patterns of estimated AET display patterns representative of the basin's elevation and vegetation characteristics, with improved spatial resolution and temporal heterogeneity when compared to previous models.

Questionnaire Construction Manual

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-07-01

fwiW ........ ..., „.,. , r-m-lili^fa^BMiai igMiit VI-C Page 3 1 Jul 76 (2) All questionnaire items should be gramatically correct. (3) All...kept in mind: a. All response alternatives should follow the stem both gramatically and logically, and if possible, be parallel in structure. b

Concerning Ken Hines …

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKellar, Bruce H. J.; Amos, Ken

The following sections are included: * Obituary published in the `Age' newspaper * Curriculum vitae: Kenneth Charles Hines * Some short stories about Ken * Roger Hosking reminisces * Ken Amos reminisces * Vic Kowalenko reminisces * Zwi Barnea reminisces * "Legend's" Thursday lunch club award number four * Graeme Lister reminisces * Bob Dewar reminisces * Norm Frankel reminisces

Directory of Manufacturing Research Centers

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-06-01

Martin W. 51 Graff, Karl 176 Dornfeld, David 88 Gray, James 76 Doty, Keith 119 Gray, Vic 6 Driels, Morris 142 Green Jr., Robert E. 51 Drury , Colin 39...Buffalo Dr. Colin Drury , Executive Director Mr. Brian Kleiner, Administrative Director Technical areas include cost analysis, strategic planning

Synthesis, analgesic, anti-inflammatory and anti-ulcerogenic activities of certain novel Schiff's bases as fenamate isosteres.

PubMed

Alafeefy, Ahmed M; Bakht, Mohammed A; Ganaie, Majid A; Ansarie, Mohd N; El-Sayed, Nahed N; Awaad, Amani S

2015-01-15

A series of certain novel Schiff bases as fenamate isosteres (VI:a-k) were synthesized to locate analgesic, anti-inflammatory agent with minimal ulcerogenic potential. The structures of the newly synthesized compounds were elucidated on the basis of their elemental analysis as well as IR, and NMR and mass spectroscopic data. All the compounds were evaluated for their anti-inflammatory activity by carrageenan induced paw oedema method. The compounds possessing good anti-inflammatory activity were further tested for analgesic, ulcerogenic, lipid peroxidation potentials and liver toxicity. Compounds (VI-c), (VI-f), (VI-h) and (VI-i) showed the best anti-inflammatory and significant analgesic activities at doses comparable to that of the standard drug Indomethacin. However, compounds (VI-c) and (VI-f) could be considered the most potent anti-inflammatory and analgesic molecules with maximum reduction in gastro-intestinal ulceration with no hepatocyte necrosis or liver degeneration. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A current perspective on availability of tools, resources and networks for veterinary immunology.

PubMed

Entrican, Gary; Lunney, Joan K; Rutten, Victor P; Baldwin, Cynthia L

2009-03-15

There are many diseases of fish, livestock and companion animals that impact negatively on animal health, welfare and productivity and for which there are no effective vaccines. The development of new vaccines is reliant on the availability of well-characterised immunological tools and reagents to understand host-pathogen interactions and identify protective immune responses. Veterinary immunology has always lagged behind mouse and human immunology in terms of development and availability of tools and reagents. However, several initiatives are underway to address this. The Veterinary Immunology Committee (VIC) Toolkit was initiated 6 years ago at the sixth International Veterinary Immunology Symposium (IVIS) in Uppsala and in the intervening period there have been several notable developments that have advanced reagent development and information exchange. This review will discuss advances in veterinary reagent development, networks, databases and commercial availability with particular reference to the second VIC Toolkit workshop held at the eighth IVIS in Ouro Preto, Brazil on the 15th of August 2007.

An assessment of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) based global drought early warning forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, E. F.; Yuan, X.; Sheffield, J.; Pan, M.; Roundy, J.

2013-12-01

One of the key recommendations of the WCRP Global Drought Information System (GDIS) workshop is to develop an experimental real-time global monitoring and prediction system. While great advances has been made in global drought monitoring based on satellite observations and model reanalysis data, global drought forecasting has been stranded in part due to the limited skill both in climate forecast models and global hydrologic predictions. Having been working on drought monitoring and forecasting over USA for more than a decade, the Princeton land surface hydrology group is now developing an experimental global drought early warning system that is based on multiple climate forecast models and a calibrated global hydrologic model. In this presentation, we will test its capability in seasonal forecasting of meteorological, agricultural and hydrologic droughts over global major river basins, using precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow forecasts respectively. Based on the joint probability distribution between observations using Princeton's global drought monitoring system and model hindcasts and real-time forecasts from North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project, we (i) bias correct the monthly precipitation and temperature forecasts from multiple climate forecast models, (ii) downscale them to a daily time scale, and (iii) use them to drive the calibrated VIC model to produce global drought forecasts at a 1-degree resolution. A parallel run using the ESP forecast method, which is based on resampling historical forcings, is also carried out for comparison. Analysis is being conducted over global major river basins, with multiple drought indices that have different time scales and characteristics. The meteorological drought forecast does not have uncertainty from hydrologic models and can be validated directly against observations - making the validation an 'apples-to-apples' comparison. Preliminary results for the evaluation of meteorological drought onset hindcasts indicate that climate models increase drought detectability over ESP by 31%-81%. However, less than 30% of the global drought onsets can be detected by climate models. The missed drought events are associated with weak ENSO signals and lower potential predictability. Due to the high false alarms from climate models, the reliability is more important than sharpness for a skillful probabilistic drought onset forecast. Validations and skill assessments for agricultural and hydrologic drought forecasts are carried out using soil moisture and streamflow output from the VIC land surface model (LSM) forced by a global forcing data set. Given our previous drought forecasting experiences over USA and Africa, validating the hydrologic drought forecasting is a significant challenge for a global drought early warning system.

Climate change reduces water availability for agriculture by decreasing non-evaporative irrigation losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Keyvan; Adam, Jennifer C.; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Peters, R. Troy

2018-06-01

Irrigation efficiency plays an important role in agricultural productivity; it affects farm-scale water demand, and the partitioning of irrigation losses into evaporative and non-evaporative components. This partitioning determines return flow generation and thus affects water availability. Over the last two decades, hydrologic and agricultural research communities have significantly improved our understanding of the impacts of climate change on water availability and food productivity. However, the impacts of climate change on the efficiency of irrigation systems, particularly on the partitioning between evaporative and non-evaporative losses, have received little attention. In this study, we incorporated a process-based irrigation module into a coupled hydrologic/agricultural modeling framework (VIC-CropSyst). To understand how climate change may impact irrigation losses, we applied VIC-CropSyst over the Yakima River basin, an important agricultural region in Washington State, U.S. We compared the historical period of 1980-2010 to an ensemble of ten projections of climate for two future periods: 2030-2060 and 2060-2090. Results averaged over the watershed showed that a 9% increase in evaporative losses will be compensated by a reduction of non-evaporative losses. Therefore, overall changes in future efficiency are negligible (-0.4%) while the Evaporative Loss Ratio (ELR) (defined as the ratio of evaporative to non-evaporative irrigation losses) is enhanced by 10%. This higher ELR is associated with a reduction in return flows, thus negatively impacting downstream water availability. Results also indicate that the impact of climate change on irrigation losses depend on irrigation type and climate scenarios.

Ion Implantation Metallurgy.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-03-01

cause of these discrepancies seem adequately explained by radiation-enhanced diff- fussion of Ni and Cr in opposite directions. (3) The SACM produced...J. M. Scharff and H. E. Schiott, KGL. DAN. VIC. SELSK. M.ATT-FYS. MEDD., 33, 14 (1963). 8. P. R. Okamoto and H. Wiedersich, J. of Nuclear Materials

Project SERAPHIM Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, John W.

1983-01-01

Lists and briefly describes computer programs recently added to those currently available from Project SERAPHIM. Program name, subject, hardware, author, supplier, and cost are provided in separate listings for Apple, PET, TRS-80 I or III, IBM, VIC-20, TERAK, and PDP-11 microcomputers. Includes corrections for two current Apple programs. (JN)

Hydrologic extremes - an intercomparison of multiple gridded statistical downscaling methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, A. T.; Cannon, A. J.

2015-06-01

Gridded statistical downscaling methods are the main means of preparing climate model data to drive distributed hydrological models. Past work on the validation of climate downscaling methods has focused on temperature and precipitation, with less attention paid to the ultimate outputs from hydrological models. Also, as attention shifts towards projections of extreme events, downscaling comparisons now commonly assess methods in terms of climate extremes, but hydrologic extremes are less well explored. Here, we test the ability of gridded downscaling models to replicate historical properties of climate and hydrologic extremes, as measured in terms of temporal sequencing (i.e., correlation tests) and distributional properties (i.e., tests for equality of probability distributions). Outputs from seven downscaling methods - bias correction constructed analogues (BCCA), double BCCA (DBCCA), BCCA with quantile mapping reordering (BCCAQ), bias correction spatial disaggregation (BCSD), BCSD using minimum/maximum temperature (BCSDX), climate imprint delta method (CI), and bias corrected CI (BCCI) - are used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model over the snow-dominated Peace River basin, British Columbia. Outputs are tested using split-sample validation on 26 climate extremes indices (ClimDEX) and two hydrologic extremes indices (3 day peak flow and 7 day peak flow). To characterize observational uncertainty, four atmospheric reanalyses are used as climate model surrogates and two gridded observational datasets are used as downscaling target data. The skill of the downscaling methods generally depended on reanalysis and gridded observational dataset. However, CI failed to reproduce the distribution and BCSD and BCSDX the timing of winter 7 day low flow events, regardless of reanalysis or observational dataset. Overall, DBCCA passed the greatest number of tests for the ClimDEX indices, while BCCAQ, which is designed to more accurately resolve event-scale spatial gradients, passed the greatest number of tests for hydrologic extremes. Non-stationarity in the observational/reanalysis datasets complicated the evaluation of downscaling performance. Comparing temporal homogeneity and trends in climate indices and hydrological model outputs calculated from downscaled reanalyses and gridded observations was useful for diagnosing the reliability of the various historical datasets. We recommend that such analyses be conducted before such data are used to construct future hydro-climatic change scenarios.

Hydrologic extremes - an intercomparison of multiple gridded statistical downscaling methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, Arelia T.; Cannon, Alex J.

2016-04-01

Gridded statistical downscaling methods are the main means of preparing climate model data to drive distributed hydrological models. Past work on the validation of climate downscaling methods has focused on temperature and precipitation, with less attention paid to the ultimate outputs from hydrological models. Also, as attention shifts towards projections of extreme events, downscaling comparisons now commonly assess methods in terms of climate extremes, but hydrologic extremes are less well explored. Here, we test the ability of gridded downscaling models to replicate historical properties of climate and hydrologic extremes, as measured in terms of temporal sequencing (i.e. correlation tests) and distributional properties (i.e. tests for equality of probability distributions). Outputs from seven downscaling methods - bias correction constructed analogues (BCCA), double BCCA (DBCCA), BCCA with quantile mapping reordering (BCCAQ), bias correction spatial disaggregation (BCSD), BCSD using minimum/maximum temperature (BCSDX), the climate imprint delta method (CI), and bias corrected CI (BCCI) - are used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model over the snow-dominated Peace River basin, British Columbia. Outputs are tested using split-sample validation on 26 climate extremes indices (ClimDEX) and two hydrologic extremes indices (3-day peak flow and 7-day peak flow). To characterize observational uncertainty, four atmospheric reanalyses are used as climate model surrogates and two gridded observational data sets are used as downscaling target data. The skill of the downscaling methods generally depended on reanalysis and gridded observational data set. However, CI failed to reproduce the distribution and BCSD and BCSDX the timing of winter 7-day low-flow events, regardless of reanalysis or observational data set. Overall, DBCCA passed the greatest number of tests for the ClimDEX indices, while BCCAQ, which is designed to more accurately resolve event-scale spatial gradients, passed the greatest number of tests for hydrologic extremes. Non-stationarity in the observational/reanalysis data sets complicated the evaluation of downscaling performance. Comparing temporal homogeneity and trends in climate indices and hydrological model outputs calculated from downscaled reanalyses and gridded observations was useful for diagnosing the reliability of the various historical data sets. We recommend that such analyses be conducted before such data are used to construct future hydro-climatic change scenarios.

Multi-model perspectives and inter-comparison of soil moisture and evapotranspiration in East Africa—an application of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pervez, M. S.; McNally, A.; Arsenault, K. R.

2017-12-01

Convergence of evidence from different agro-hydrologic sources is particularly important for drought monitoring in data sparse regions. In Africa, a combination of remote sensing and land surface modeling experiments are used to evaluate past, present and future drought conditions. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) routinely simulates daily soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET) and other variables over Africa using multiple models and inputs. We found that Noah 3.3, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) 4.1.2, and Catchment Land Surface Model based FLDAS simulations of monthly soil moisture percentile maps captured concurrent drought and water surplus episodes effectively over East Africa. However, the results are sensitive to selection of land surface model and hydrometeorological forcings. We seek to identify sources of uncertainty (input, model, parameter) to eventually improve the accuracy of FLDAS outputs. In absence of in situ data, previous work used European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Soil Moisture (CCI-SM) data measured from merged active-passive microwave remote sensing to evaluate FLDAS soil moisture, and found that during the high rainfall months of April-May and November-December Noah-based soil moisture correlate well with CCI-SM over the Greater Horn of Africa region. We have found good correlations (r>0.6) for FLDAS Noah 3.3 ET anomalies and Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) ET over East Africa. Recently, SSEBop ET estimates (version 4) were improved by implementing a land surface temperature correction factor. We re-evaluate the correlations between FLDAS ET and version 4 SSEBop ET. To further investigate the reasons for differences between models we evaluate FLDAS soil moisture with Advanced Scatterometer and SMAP soil moisture and FLDAS outputs with MODIS and AVHRR normalized difference vegetation index. By exploring longer historic time series and near-real time products we will be aiding convergence of evidence for better understanding of historic drought, improved monitoring and forecasting, and better understanding of uncertainties of water availability estimation over Africa

26 CFR 1.469-0 - Table of contents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... for investment. (C) Property used in a trade or business. (D) Lodging rented for convenience of...)(3)-(e)(1) [Reserved] (2) Trade or business activity. (e)(3)(i)-(e)(3)(ii) [Reserved] (iii) Average... rent. (e)(3)(iv)-(e)(3)(vi)(C) [Reserved] (D) Lodging rented for convenience of employer. (E...

VizieR Online Data Catalog: VIc photometry of IR-excess stars in NGC6611 (De Marchi+ 2013)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Marchi, G.; Panagia, N.; Guarcello, M. G.; Bonito, R.

2014-10-01

The data analysed in this work were extracted from the multiband photometric catalogue of NGC 6611 and of the surrounding M 16 cloud compiled by Guarcello et al. (2010, Cat. J/A+A/521/A61). (1 data file).

Projected Changes in Mean and Interannual Variability of Surface Water over Continental China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leng, Guoyong; Tang, Qiuhong; Huang, Maoyi

Five General Circulation Model (GCM) climate projections under the RCP8.5 emission scenario were used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to investigate the impacts of climate change on hydrologic cycle over continental China in the 21st century. The bias-corrected climatic variables were generated for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Results showed much larger fractional changes of annual mean Evaportranspiration (ET) per unit warming than the corresponding fractional changes of Precipitation (P) per unit warming across the country especially for South China,more » which led to notable decrease of surface water variability (P-E). Specifically, negative trends for annual mean runoff up to -0.33%/decade and soil moisture trends varying between -0.02 to -0.13%/decade were found for most river basins across China. Coincidentally, interannual variability for both runoff and soil moisture exhibited significant positive trends for almost all river basins across China, implying an increase in extremes relative to the mean conditions. Noticeably, the largest positive trends for runoff variability and soil moisture variability, which were up to 38 0.41%/decade and 0.90%/decade, both occurred in Southwest China. In addition to the regional contrast, intra-seasonal variation was also large for the runoff mean and runoff variability changes, but small for the soil moisture mean and variability changes. Our results suggest that future climate change could further exacerbate existing water-related risks (e.g. floods and droughts) across China as indicated by the marked decrease of surface water amounts combined with steady increase of interannual variability throughout the 21st century. This study highlights the regional contrast and intra-seasonal variations for the projected hydrologic changes and could provide muti-scale guidance for assessing effective adaptation strategies for the country on a river basin, regional, or as whole.« less

Towards Developing a Regional Drought Information System for Lower Mekong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutta, R.; Jayasinghe, S.; Basnayake, S. B.; Apirumanekul, C.; Pudashine, J.; Granger, S. L.; Andreadis, K.; Das, N. N.

2016-12-01

With the climate and weather patterns changing over the years, the Lower Mekong Basin have been experiencing frequent and prolonged droughts resulting in severe damage to the agricultural sector affecting food security and livelihoods of the farming community. However, the Regional Drought Information System (RDIS) for Lower Mekong countries would help prepare vulnerable communities from frequent and severe droughts through monitoring, assessing and forecasting of drought conditions and allowing decision makers to take effective decisions in terms of providing early warning, incentives to farmers, and adjustments to cropping calendars and so on. The RDIS is an integrated system that is being designed for drought monitoring, analysis and forecasting based on the need to meet the growing demand of an effective monitoring system for drought by the lower Mekong countries. The RDIS is being built on four major components that includes earth observation component, meteorological data component, database storage and Regional Hydrologic Extreme Assessment System (RHEAS) framework while the outputs from the system will be made open access to the public through a web-based user interface. The system will run on the RHEAS framework that allows both nowcasting and forecasting using hydrological and crop simulation models such as the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer (DSSAT) model respectively. The RHEAS allows for a tightly constrained observation based drought and crop yield information system that can provide customized outputs on drought that includes root zone soil moisture, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Standard Runoff Index (SRI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Crop Yield and can integrate remote sensing products, along with evapotranspiration and soil moisture data. The anticipated outcomes from the RDIS is to improve the operational, technological and institutional capabilities of lower Mekong countries to prepare for and respond towards drought situations and providing policy makers with current and forecast drought indices for decision making on adjusting cropping calendars as well as planning short and long term mitigation measures.

Methane Emissions From Western Siberian Wetlands: Heterogeneity and Sensitivity to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohn, T. J.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Podest, E.; McDonald, K. C.; Sathulur, K.; Bowling, L. C.; Friborg, T.

2007-12-01

Prediction of methane emissions from high-latitude wetlands is important given concerns about their sensitivity to a warming climate. As a basis for prediction of wetland methane emissions at regional scales, we have coupled the Variable Infiltration Capacity macroscale hydrological model (VIC) with the Biosphere-Energy-Transfer- Hydrology terrestrial ecosystem model (BETHY) and a wetland methane emissions model to make large-scale estimates of methane emissions as a function of soil temperature, water table depth, and net primary productivity (NPP), with a parameterization of the sub-grid heterogeneity of the water table depth based on topographic wetness index. Using landcover classifications derived from L-band satellite synthetic aperture radar imagery, we simulated methane emissions for the Chaya River basin in western Siberia, an area that includes the Bakchar Bog, for a retrospective baseline period of 1980-1999, and evaluated their sensitivity to increases in temperature of 0-5 °C and increases in precipitation of 0-15%. The interactions of temperature and precipitation, through their effects on the water table depth, play an important role in determining methane emissions from these wetlands. The balance between these effects varies spatially, and their net effect depends in part on sub- grid topographic heterogeneity. Higher temperatures alone increase methane production in saturated areas, but cause those saturated areas to shrink in extent, resulting in a net reduction in methane emissions. Higher precipitation alone raises water tables and expands the saturated area, resulting in a net increase in methane emissions. Combining a temperature increase of 3 °C and an increase of 10% in precipitation, to represent the climate conditions likely in western Siberia at the end of this century, results in roughly a doubling of annual methane emissions. This work was carried out at the University of Washington, at Purdue University, and at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNally, A.; Verdin, J. P.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Arsenault, K. R.; Wang, S.; Kumar, S.; Shukla, S.; Funk, C. C.; Pervez, M. S.; Fall, G. M.; Karsten, L. R.

2015-12-01

AGU 2015 Fall Meeting Session ID#: 7598 Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning James Verdin, USGS EROS Christa Peters-Lidard, NASA GSFC Amy McNally, NASA GSFC, UMD/ESSIC Kristi Arsenault, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC, SAIC Sujay Kumar, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shrad Shukla, UCSB Chris Funk, USGS EROS Greg Fall, NOAA Logan Karsten, NOAA, UCAR Famine early warning has traditionally required close monitoring of agro-climatological conditions, putting them in historical context, and projecting them forward to anticipate end-of-season outcomes. In recent years, it has become necessary to factor in the effects of a changing climate as well. There has also been a growing appreciation of the linkage between food security and water availability. In 2009, Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) science partners began developing land surface modeling (LSM) applications to address these needs. With support from the NASA Applied Sciences Program, an instance of the Land Information System (LIS) was developed to specifically support FEWS NET. A simple crop water balance model (GeoWRSI) traditionally used by FEWS NET took its place alongside the Noah land surface model and the latest version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and LIS data readers were developed for FEWS NET precipitation forcings (NOAA's RFE and USGS/UCSB's CHIRPS). The resulting system was successfully used to monitor and project soil moisture conditions in the Horn of Africa, foretelling poor crop outcomes in the OND 2013 and MAM 2014 seasons. In parallel, NOAA created another instance of LIS to monitor snow water resources in Afghanistan, which are an early indicator of water availability for irrigation and crop production. These successes have been followed by investment in LSM implementations to track and project water availability in Sub-Saharan Africa and Yemen, work that is now underway. Adoption of LSM and data assimilation technology has enabled FEWS NET to take greater advantage of remote sensing observations to robustly estimate key agro-climatological states, like soil moisture and snow water equivalent, building confidence in our understanding of conditions in data sparse regions of the world.

Hydrological projections of climate change scenarios over the 3H region of China: A VIC model assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dan, Li; Ji, Jinjun; Xie, Zhenghui; Chen, Feng; Wen, Gang; Richey, Jeffrey E.

2012-06-01

To examine the potential sensitivity of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (3H) region of China to potential changes in future precipitation and temperature, a hydrological evaluation using the VIC hydrological model under different climate scenarios was carried out. The broader perspective is providing a scientific background for the adaptation in water resource management and rural development to climate change. Twelve climate scenarios were designed to account for possible variations in the future with respect to the baseline of historic climate patterns. Results from the six representative types of climate scenarios (+2°C and +5°C warming, and 0%, +15%, -15% change in precipitation) show that rising temperatures for normal precipitation and for wet scenarios (+15% precipitation) yield greater increased evapotranspiration in the south than in the north, which is confirmed by the remaining six scenarios described below. For a 15% change in precipitation, the largest increase or decrease of evapotranspiration occurs between 33 and 36°N and west of 118°E, a region where evapotranspiration is sensitive to precipitation variation and is affected by the amount of water available for evaporation. Rising temperatures can lead to a south-to-north decreasing gradient of surface runoff. The six scenarios yield a large variation of runoff in the southern end of the 3H, which means that this zone is sensitive to climate change through surface runoff change. The Jiangsu province in the southeastern part of the 3H region shows an obvious sensitivity in soil moisture to climate change. On a regional mean scale, the hydrological change induced by the increasing precipitation from 15% to 30% is more obvious than that induced by greater warming of +5°C relative to +2°C. These simulations identify key regions of sensitivity in hydrological variation to climate change in the provinces of 3H, which can be used as guides in implementing adaptation.

A Survey of Metal Lines at High Redshift. II. SDSS Absorption Line Studies—O VI Line Density, Space Density, and Gas Metallicity at z abs ~ 3.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, S.; Mathur, S.; Pieri, M.; York, D. G.

2010-09-01

We have analyzed a large data set of O VI absorber candidates found in the spectra of 3702 Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) quasars, focusing on a subsample of 387 active galactic nuclei sight lines with an average S/N >=5.0, allowing for the detection of absorbers above a rest-frame equivalent width limit of W r >= 0.19 Å for the O VI 1032 Å component. Accounting for random interlopers mimicking an O VI doublet, we derive for the first time a secure lower limit for the redshift number density ΔN/Δz for redshifts z abs >= 2.8. With extensive Monte Carlo simulations, we quantify the losses of absorbers due to blending with the ubiquitous Lyα forest lines and estimate the success rate of retrieving each individual candidate as a function of its redshift, the emission redshift of the quasar, the strength of the absorber, and the measured signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the spectrum by modeling typical Lyman forest spectra. These correction factors allow us to derive the "incompleteness and S/N-corrected" redshift number densities of O VI absorbers: ΔN O VI,c /Δzc (2.8 < z < 3.2) = 4.6 ± 0.3, ΔN O VI,c /Δzc (3.2 < z < 3.6) = 6.7 ± 0.8, and ΔN O VI,c /Δzc (3.6 < z < 4.0) = 8.4 ± 2.9. We can place a secure lower limit for the contribution of O VI to the closure mass density at the redshifts probed here: ΩO VI (2.8 < z < 3.2) >= 1.9 × 10-8 h -1. We show that the strong lines we probe account for over 65% of the mass in the O VI absorbers; the weak absorbers, while dominant in line number density, do not contribute significantly to the mass density. Making a conservative assumption about the ionization fraction, {O VI}/{O}, and adopting the Anders & Grevesse solar abundance values, we derive the mean metallicity of the gas probed in our search: ζ(2.8 < z < 3.2) >= 3.6 × 10-4 h, in good agreement with other studies. These results demonstrate that large spectroscopic data sets such as SDSS can play an important role in QSO absorption line studies, in spite of the relatively low resolution.

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H.; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K. S.; Dhanesh, Y.; Sudheer, K. P.; Gunthe, S. S.

2016-01-01

India’s agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins. PMID:27463092

Evaluation of potential impacts of climate change and water management on streamflow in the Rovuma River, Mozambique and Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minihane, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2012-12-01

Economic development and public health are tied to water resources development in many parts of the world. Effective use of water management infrastructure investments requires projections of future climatic and water use conditions. This is particularly true in developing countries. We explore in this work water resource availability in the Rovuma River, which lies in a sparsely-populated region of southeastern Africa, on the border of Mozambique and Tanzania. While there are only limited documented observations of flow of the Rovuma River and it's tributaries, particularly in recent years, there is widespread interest in development of the water resources of the region. The national governments are interested in hydropower potential while private companies, many of them large multinational organizations, have started irrigation programs to increase agricultural output. While the Mozambique and Tanzania governments have a joint agreement over the river development, there is a need to assess both current and potential future water resource conditions in the basin. The sustainability of these developments, however, may be affected by climate change. Here we quantify potential changes in streamflow in the Rovuma River under dry and wet climate projection scenarios using the delta method and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale hydrology model. We then evaluate streamflow changes relative to water withdrawals required for a range of irrigated agriculture scenarios. Our analysis is intended to be a starting point for planners to consider potential impacts of both streamflow withdrawal permits (for irrigated agriculture) and future uncertain climate conditions.

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

PubMed

Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K S; Dhanesh, Y; Sudheer, K P; Gunthe, S S

2016-01-01

India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

Moving towards a new paradigm for global flood risk estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troy, Tara J.; Devineni, Naresh; Lima, Carlos; Lall, Upmanu

2013-04-01

Traditional approaches to flood risk assessment are typically indexed to an instantaneous peak flow event at a specific recording gage on a river, and then extrapolated through hydraulic modeling of that peak flow to the potential area that is likely to be inundated. Recent research shows that property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. The existing notion of a flood return period based on just the instantaneous peak flow rate at a stream gauge consequently needs to be revisited, especially for floods due to persistent rainfall as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Depending on the flood event type considered, different rainfall inducing mechanisms (tropical storm, local convection, frontal system, recurrent tropical waves) may be involved. Each of these will have a characteristic spatial scale, expression and orientation and temporal characteristics. We develop stochastic models that can reproduce these attributes with appropriate intensity-duration-frequency and spatial expression, and hence provide a basis for conditioning basin hydrologic attributes for flood risk assessment. Past work on Non-homogeneous Hidden Markov Models (NHMM) is used as a basis to develop this capability at regional scales. In addition, a dynamic hierarchical Bayesian network model that is continuous and not based on discretization to states is tested and compared against NHMM. The exogenous variables in these models comes from the analysis of key synoptic circulation patterns which will be used as predictors for the regional spatio-temporal models. The stochastic simulations of rainfall are then used as input to a flood modeling system, which consists of a series of physically based models. Rainfall-runoff generation is produced by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. When the modeled streamflow crosses a threshold, a full kinematic wave routing model is implemented at a finer resolution (<=1km) in order to more accurately model streamflow under flood conditions and estimate inundation. This approach allows for efficient computational simulation of the hydrology when not under potential for flooding with high-resolution flood wave modeling when there is flooding potential. We demonstrate the results of this flood risk estimation system for the Ohio River basin in the United States, a large river basin that is historically prone to flooding, with the intention of using it to do global flood risk assessment.

Climate change impact on hydroclimate regimes and extremes over Andean basins in the central-southern Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bozkurt, Deniz; Rojas, Maisa; Valdivieso, Jonás; Falvey, Mark

2015-04-01

We have assessed the impact of projected increases in temperature and decreased precipitation on variability and potential changes in hydroclimate regimes and extremes over Andean basins in the central-southern Chile (~30-40S). The altitude of the southern Andes in the study area has an average altitude of 5000 m in the north that decreases to 3000 m at the southern edge. Climatically the region has a Mediterranean-like climate with mainly winter precipitation that gradually increases southwards, from around 300 mm/yr to 1000 mm/yr. The region is home to most of the population in Chile (~10 mil. inhabitants), it has fertile and productive agriculture land, as well as hydro-electrical power plants. During the 20th Century the region has experienced a decreasing precipitation trend imbedded in important interannual and decadal scale variability. We have used gridded observed daily precipitation and temperatures to drive and validate the VIC macro-scale model over the region of interest at 0.25 x 0.25 degree resolution. Historical (1960-2005) and projected (RCP8.5, 2006-2099) daily precipitation and temperatures from 28 CMIP5 models are adjusted via a transfer function based on the gridded observed daily precipitation and temperature data. Adjusted time series are then used to drive the VIC model in order to present climate change projections. The hydrological model simulations foresee that drying is robust in the models and total annual runoff will decrease in the future (40-45% by the end of the century). Center timing of runoff tends to shift to earlier days (3-5 weeks by the end of the century). In some areas over the Andes winter runoff is projected to increase due to upward movement of zero isotherm. Moreover, reductions in the amount of snowpack and accelerated snowmelt lead to more pronounced increase in winter evapotranspiration over the same areas. The simulated 12-months Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) clearly shows severe persistent hydrological droughts without (or a few) wet spell interruptions by the end of the century. On the other hand, probability density function of annual maximum runoff over high elevations (>1000 m) and higher interannual variability of 3-months SRI indicate a possible increase in the probability of flood events.

Closing Time?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muir, Rick

2012-01-01

There are few institutions so central to Britain's culture and way of life as the local public house. Try to imagine Coronation Street without The Rover's Return, Emmerdale without The Woolpack or EastEnders without The Queen Vic. Outside the home the pub is the most popular place for British people of all ages and classes to relax and socialise.…

Microwave-Assisted Debromination of α-Bromoketones with Triarylstibanes in Water.

PubMed

Murata, Yuki; Sugawara, Yoshiyuki; Matsumura, Mio; Kakusawa, Naoki; Yasuike, Shuji

2017-01-01

Several α-bromoarylketones were reacted with triarylstibanes under microwave irradiation in water to obtain the corresponding debrominated ketones. Under similar reaction conditions, 1,2-elimination of vic-dibromides in water afforded the corresponding E-olefins. This reaction is the first example of organoantimony compounds utilized for organic transformation in water.

Support for breaking the nexus between alcohol and community sports settings: findings from the VicHealth Community Attitudes Survey in Australia.

PubMed

Tobin, Claire L; Fitzgerald, John L; Livingstone, Charles; Thomson, Lisa; Harper, Todd A

2012-06-01

This study describes levels and predictors of community attitudes towards alcohol, support for structural alterations to the drinking context, and intention to increase participation in community sports clubs. Cross-sectional data were obtained from the VicHealth Community Attitudes Survey on Healthy Sporting Environments, administered to a random sample of Victorian adults. Descriptive and multivariate logistic regression analysis was undertaken. Very high support for removing alcohol sponsorship of community sport and for a levy on alcohol advertising was found. The groups most supportive of breaking the nexus between alcohol and community sport were female, older-aged and non-English-speaking citizens and those not involved in sport clubs. If alcohol sales at community sports clubs were reduced, participation may increase among population groups currently identified as least engaged with community sport. An optimal climate exists for policy reforms to make community sporting environments healthier by reducing the ties with alcohol. If implemented, these reforms may lead to an increase and diversification of participants in community sport. © 2011 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Veterinary Immunology Committee Toolkit Workshop 2010: progress and plans.

PubMed

Entrican, Gary; Lunney, Joan K

2012-07-15

The 3rd Veterinary Immunology Committee (VIC) Toolkit Workshop took place at the 9th International Veterinary Immunology Symposium (IVIS) in Tokyo, Japan on 18th August 2010. The Workshop built on previous Toolkit Workshops and covered various aspects of reagent development, commercialization and provision to the veterinary immunology research community. The emphasis was on open communication about current progress and future plans to avoid duplication of effort and to update priorities for reagent development. There were presentations on the major reagent development and networking projects such as the BBSRC/RERAD Immunological Toolbox (2004-2009), US Veterinary Immune Reagent Network (VIRN 2006-2010) that has just received renewal funding for 2010-2014, and EU Network for Animal Diseases Infectiology Research Facilities project (NADIR 2009-2013). There were also presentations and discussions on the use of reagents for assay development, particularly multiplexing, and how these new technologies will underpin basic research developments. Mechanisms for improved information exchange, especially though websites with VIC playing a central role, were identified. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Frail-VIG index: Design and evaluation of a new frailty index based on the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment].

PubMed

Amblàs-Novellas, Jordi; Martori, Joan Carles; Molist Brunet, Núria; Oller, Ramon; Gómez-Batiste, Xavier; Espaulella Panicot, Joan

Frailty is closely linked to health results. Frailty indexes (FI) and the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) are multidimensional tools. FI serve to quantitatively measure frailty levels. They have shown to have an excellent correlation with mortality. However, they are infrequently used in clinical practice. Given the need for new, more concise, and pragmatic FI, a new FI is proposed based on a CGA (Frail-VIG Index). A prospective, observational, longitudinal study was conducted, with cohort follow up at 12 months or death. Participants were patients admitted in the Geriatric Unit of the University Hospital of Vic (Barcelona, Spain) during 2014. Contrast of hypothesis log-rank for survival curves according to Frail-VIG index, and analysis of ROC curves were performed to assess prognostic capacity. A total of 590 patients were included (mean age=86.39). Mortality rate at 12 months was 46.4%. The comparative analysis showed statistically significant differences (P<.05) for almost all variables included in the Frail-VIG index. Survival curves also show significant differences (X 2 =445, P<.001) for the different Frail-VIG index scores. The area under the ROC curve at 12 months was 0.9 (0.88-0.92). An administration time of the Index is estimated at less than 10minutes. Results endorse the Frail-VIG index as a simple (as for contents), rapid (for administration time) tool, with discriminative (for situational diagnosis) and predictive capacity (high correlation with mortality). Copyright © 2016 SEGG. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Building capacity in local government for integrated planning to increase physical activity: evaluation of the VicHealth MetroACTIVE program.

PubMed

Thomas, M M; Hodge, W; Smith, B J

2009-12-01

Integrated planning is a holistic approach to addressing the needs of local communities built on partnerships between those responsible for development, environmental quality and service provision. This study investigated the extent and key influences on the use of integrated planning to promote physical activity among six metropolitan councils in Melbourne Australia, which took part in the MetroACTIVE Project funded by the Victorian Health Promotion Foundation from 2005 to 2007. The evaluation entailed interviews conducted at the mid-term (N = 67) and completion (N = 50) of the project, and the review of relevant documents. Respondents included elected councillors, chief executive officers, officers from different council divisions and the project staff employed in each council. Three councils showed evidence of integrated planning for physical activity, whereas the remainder focused on the delivery of community participation programs. Leadership from senior management and an organizational culture that supported collaboration across council departments were prerequisites for integrated planning. Employment of a dedicated project officer with skills for engaging management and building partnerships within the organization was important. Barriers to integrated planning were a complex organization structure, high demands on the council due to a growing residential population and a poor climate among staff. Overall, integrated planning was found to be a viable approach for developing a coordinated approach to this issue involving the range of council services and functions. Ongoing strategies are needed to facilitate senior management commitment and organizational capacity for integrated planning, with leadership provided by departments responsible for infrastructure or corporate planning.

Minimising the development of anthelmintic resistance, and optimising the use of the novel anthelmintic monepantel, for the sustainable control of nematode parasites in Australian sheep grazing systems.

PubMed

Dobson, R J; Hosking, B C; Besier, R B; Love, S; Larsen, J W A; Rolfe, P F; Bailey, J N

2011-05-01

To compare the risk of different treatment scenarios on selecting for anthelmintic resistance on Australian sheep farms. A computer simulation model predicted populations of Trichostrongylus colubriformis, Haemonchus contortus or Teladorsagia (Ostertagia) circumcincta, and the frequency of anthelmintic resistance genes. Nematode populations and the progression of drug resistance for a variety of treatment options and management practices in sheep-rearing areas of Western Australia (WA), Victoria (VIC) and New South Wales (NSW) were simulated. A scoring system was devised to measure the success of each option in delaying resistance to each anthelmintic and in controlling nematode populations. The best option at all sites was combining the new anthelmintic (monepantel) with a triple mixture of benzimidazole, levamisole and abamectin (COM). The next best option was: in NSW, rotation at each treatment between monepantel, moxidectin and COM; in VIC, rotation at each treatment between monepantel and COM; and in WA, rotation at each treatment between monepantel (used in winter) and COM or moxidectin (used in summer-autumn). In WA, rapid selection for resistance occurred as a consequence of summer-autumn treatments; however, if a small percentage of adult stock were left untreated then this selection could be greatly reduced. Despite purposely assuming relatively high resistance to benzimidazole and levamisole, COM was still effective in controlling worms and delaying resistance. Because of cost constraints, it may not be feasible or profitable for producers to always use the combination of all drugs. However, the second- and third-best options still considerably slowed the development of anthelmintic resistance. © 2011 The Authors. Australian Veterinary Journal © 2011 Australian Veterinary Association.

Compassionate communities: design and preliminary results of the experience of Vic (Barcelona, Spain) caring city.

PubMed

Gómez-Batiste, Xavier; Mateu, Silvia; Serra-Jofre, Susagna; Molas, Magda; Mir-Roca, Sarah; Amblàs, Jordi; Costa, Xavier; Lasmarías, Cristina; Serrarols, Marta; Solà-Serrabou, Alvar; Calle, Candela; Kellehear, Allan

2018-04-01

A program of Compassionate City or Community (CC) has been designed and developed in the City of Vic (43,964 habitants, Barcelona, Spain), based on The Compassionate City Charter and other public health literature and experiments, with the joint leadership of the City Council and the Chair of Palliative Care at the University of Vic, and as an expansion of a comprehensive and integrated system of palliative care. The program started with an assessment of needs of the city as identified by 48 social organizations with a foundational workshop and a semi-structured survey. After this assessment, the mission, vision, values and aims were agreed. The main aims consisted in promoting changes in social and cultural attitudes toward the end of life (EoL) and providing integrated care for people with advanced chronic conditions and social needs such as loneliness, poverty, low access to services at home, or conflict. The selected slogan was "Living with meaning, dignity, and support the end of life". The program for the first year has included 19 activities (cultural, training, informative, and mixed) and followed by 1,260 attendants, and the training activities were followed by 147 people. Local and regional sponsors are funding the initiative. After a year, a quantitative and qualitative evaluation was performed, showing high participation and satisfaction of the attendants and organizations. In the second year, the care for particular vulnerable people defined as targets (EoL and social factors described before) will start with volunteers with more organizations to join the project. The key identified factors for the initial success are: the strong joint leadership between social department of the Council and the University; clear aims and targets; high participation rates; the limited size of the geographical context; which allowed high participation and recognition; and the commitment to evaluate results.

Analysis of Water and Energy Budgets and Trends Using the NLDAS Monthly Data Sets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vollmer, Bruce E.; Rui, Hualan; Mocko, David M.; Teng, William L.; Lei, Guang-Dih

2012-01-01

The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) is a collaborative project between NASA GSFC, NOAA, Princeton University, and the University of Washington. NLDAS has created surface meteorological forcing data sets using the best-available observations and reanalyses. The forcing data sets are used to drive four separate land-surface models (LSMs), Mosaic, Noah, VIC, and SAC, to produce data sets of soil moisture, snow, runoff, and surface fluxes. NLDAS hourly data, accessible from the NASA GES DISC Hydrology Data Holdings Portal, http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/hydrology/data-holdings, are widely used by various user communities in modeling, research, and applications, such as drought and flood monitoring, watershed and water quality management, and case studies of extreme events. More information is available at http://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/. To further facilitate analysis of water and energy budgets and trends, NLDAS monthly data sets have been recently released by NASA GES DISC.

Combined use of local and global hydrometeorological data with regional and global hydrological models in the Magdalena - Cauca river basin, Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, Erasmo; Sanchez, Ines; Duque, Nicolas; Lopez, Patricia; Kaune, Alexander; Werner, Micha; Arboleda, Pedro

2017-04-01

The Magdalena Cauca Macrobasin (MCMB) in Colombia, with an area of about 257,000 km2, is the largest and most important water resources system in the country. With almost 80% of the Colombian population (46 million people) settled in the basin, it is the main source of water for demands including human consumption, agriculture, hydropower generation, industrial activities and ecosystems. Despite its importance, the basin has witnessed enormous changes in land-cover and extensive deforestation during the last three decades. To make things more complicated, the MCMB currently lacks a set of tools to support planning and decision making processes at scale of the whole watershed. Considering this, the MCMB has been selected as one of the six different regional case studies in the eartH2Observe research project, in which hydrological and meteorological reanalysis products are being validated for the period 1980-2012. The combined use of the hydrological and meteorological reanalysis data, with local hydrometeorological data (precipitation, temperature and streamflow) provided by the National Hydrometeorological Agency (IDEAM), has given us the opportunity to implement and test three hydrological models (VIC, WFLOW and a Water Balance Model based on the Budyko framework) at the basin scale. Additionally, results from the global models in the eartH2Observe hydrological reanalysis have been used to evaluate their performance against the observed streamflow data. This paper discusses the comparison between streamflow observations and simulations from the global hydrological models forced with the WFDEI data, and regional models forced with a combination of observed and meteorological reanalysis data, in the whole domain of the MCMB. For the three regional models analysed results show good performances for some sub-basins and poor performances for others. This can be due to the smoothing of the precipitation fields, interpolated from point daily rainfall data, the effect of horizontal precipitation (not included in the models) and weaknesses in the models structures; for example the poor performance of the VIC model in base flow dominated basins. In order to improve these simulations a strategy based on a hydrological model ensemble is currently being developed in the case study. Results from the global models, show that these consistently tend to overestimate runoff. This may be due to the coarse resolution used (50 km), biases in the ERA-Interim precipitation forcing, and the different partitioning within the global models of the precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff. It is expected that within the Tier II hydrological reanalysis, where the models will produce outputs at 25 km resolution, some improvements may be identified.

Integrated Adaptive Scenarios for Ariculture: Synergies and Tradeoffs.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, K.; Rajagopalan, K.; Adam, J. C.; Brady, M.; Stockle, C.; Liu, M.; Kruger, C. E.

2017-12-01

A wide variety of factors can drive adaptation of the agricultural production sector in response to climate change. Warming and increased growing season length can lead to adoption of newer plant varieties as well as increases in double cropping systems. Changes in expectations of drought frequency or economic factors could lead to adoption of new technology (such as irrigation technology or water trading systems) or crop choices with a view of reducing farm-level risk, and these choices can result in unintended system wide effects. These are all examples of producer adaptation decisions made with a long-term (multiple decades) view. In addition, producers respond to short-term (current year) shocks - such as drought events - through management strategies that include deficit irrigation, fallowing, nutrient management, and engaging in water trading. The effects of these short- and long-term decisions are not independent, and can drive or be driven by the other. For example, investment in new irrigation systems (long-term) can be driven by expectations of short-term crop productivity losses in drought years. Similarly, the capacity to manage for short-term shocks will depend on crop type and variety as well as adopted irrigation technologies. Our overarching objective is to understand the synergies and tradeoffs that exist when combining three potential long-term adaptation strategies and two short-term adaptation strategies, with a view of understanding the synergies and tradeoffs. We apply the integrated crop-hydrology modeling framework VIC-CropSyst, along with the water management module Yakima RiverWare to address these questions over our test area, the Yakima River basin. We consider adoption of a) more efficient irrigation technologies, slower growing crop varieties, and increased prevalence of double cropping systems as long-term adaptation strategies; and b) fallowing and deficit irrigation as short-term responses to droughts. We evaluate the individual and combined effect of these strategies on agricultural production. Preliminary results indicate that long-term adaptation strategies impact short-run adaptive capacities to drought shocks. The strategies are complementary under certain situations and results in tradeoffs in other situations, and we characterize these differences.

A Computer-Based System Integrating Instruction and Information Retrieval: A Description of Some Methodological Considerations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Selig, Judith A.; And Others

This report, summarizing the activities of the Vision Information Center (VIC) in the field of computer-assisted instruction from December, 1966 to August, 1967, describes the methodology used to load a large body of information--a programed text on basic opthalmology--onto a computer for subsequent information retrieval and computer-assisted…

The Impact of Stressors on Military Performance

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

Technology Organisation DSTO-GD-0780 ABSTRACT Military personnel are exposed to a range of stressors that potentially impact on their performance...and Technology Organisation 506 Lorimer Street Fishermans Bend VIC 3207 Telephone: 1300 362 332 Fax: 03 9626 7999 © Commonwealth of...automation will facilitate humans and technology seamlessly sharing control of tasks. UNCLASSIFIED DSTO-GD-0780 UNCLASSIFIED Contents 1

U. S. Naval Forces, Vietnam Monthly Historical Summary for June 1968

DTIC Science & Technology

1968-07-04

eneu" fire in the sane area. This time the Viet Cong achieved devastating results. PBR 750 had pursued and captured an eneM sampan _ _ that had evaded...crossing the Saigon River., but, eaierged vic;.orious with a total of 121 enem dead and 7 captured in thos* twD days of figbting. Four Yarines were

Does Mexican Land Management Influence US Southwest Rainfall? Effects of Vegetation Seasonality and Land Use Change on Atmospheric Moisture Transport in the North American Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohn, T. J.; Vivoni, E. R.

2013-12-01

Southern Arizona and New Mexico receive 30-50% of their annual rainfall in the summer, as part of the North American Monsoon (NAM). Modeling studies suggest that 15-25% of this rainfall first falls on Mexican land, is transpired by vegetation, and subsequently is transported northward across the border to the US. The main source regions in Mexico lie in the subtropical scrub and tropical deciduous forests in the foothills of the Sierra Madre Occidental, in the states of Sinaloa and Sonora. A key characteristic of these natural ecosystems is their rapid greening at the onset of the monsoon, which maximizes the amount of moisture transpired from the soil into the atmosphere in the days immediately following rainfall. These ecosystems are under threat from a number of human activities, including expansion of rainfed and irrigated agriculture, deforestation for grazing activities and urbanization. These changes in land use result in dramatically different seasonality and magnitude of evapotranspiration. In this study, we examine the differences in spatial and temporal characteristics of evapotranspiration yielded by current and pre-industrial land cover. To this end, we employ the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model at 1/16 degree resolution, driven by gridded meteorological observations and the MCD15A3 4-day MODIS LAI product, across the NAM region (Arizona, New Mexico, and northern Mexico). We compare the magnitude and timing of land-atmosphere fluxes given by both pre-industrial and current land cover/use, as well as the land cover under several possible alternative land use scenarios. We identify the regions where the largest changes in magnitude and timing of evapotranspiration have occurred, as well as the regions and land use changes that could produce the largest changes in future evapotranspiration under different scenarios. Finally, we explore the consequences these effects have for monsoon moisture transport.

Effects of Land Use on the Predictability of Land-Atmosphere Fluxes and Moisture Transport in the North American Monsoon Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohn, T. J.; Mascaro, G.; White, D. D.; Vivoni, E. R.

2014-12-01

Southern Arizona and New Mexico receive 40-60% of their annual rainfall in the summer, as part of the North American Monsoon (NAM). Modeling studies suggest that 15-25% of this rainfall first falls on Mexican land, is transpired by vegetation, and subsequently is transported northward across the border to the US. The main source regions in Mexico include two primary landcover types in Sonora and Sinaloa: subtropical scrub and tropical deciduous forests in the foothills of the Sierra Madre Occidental; and large expanses of irrigated agriculture along the Gulf of California. The foothill ecosystems, known for their rapid greening and large transpiration rates at the onset of the monsoon, are under threat from deforestation for grazing activities. On the other hand, irrigated agriculture in both the winter and summer has shifted the seasonality of evaporative fluxes and introduced socio-economic factors into their interannual variability and predictability. In this study, we examine the differences in spatial and temporal characteristics of evapotranspiration yielded by current and pre-industrial land cover / land use. To this end, we employ the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model at 1/16 degree resolution, driven by gridded meteorological observations and MODIS LAI, NDVI, and albedo products, across the NAM region (Arizona, New Mexico, and northern Mexico). We compare the magnitude and timing of land-atmosphere fluxes given by both pre-industrial and current land cover/use, as well as the land cover under several possible alternative land use scenarios. We identify the regions where the largest changes in magnitude and timing of evapotranspiration have occurred, as well as the regions and land use changes that could produce the largest changes in future evapotranspiration under different scenarios. Finally, we explore the consequences these effects have for the predictability of monsoon moisture transport.

Integration of multispectral and SAR data for monitoring forest ecosystems recovery after fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stankova, Nataliya; Nedkov, Roumen; Ivanova, Iva; Avetisyan, Daniela

2017-09-01

The aim of this study is assessing the impacts and monitoring the condition and recovery processes of forest ecosystems after fire based on remote aerospace methods and data. To achieve this goal, satellite imagery in microwave and optical range of the spectrum were used. A hybrid model for assessing the instantaneous condition of forest ecosystems after fire that uses parallel data from optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) was developed. Based on the three Tasseled Cap components (Brightness-BR, Greenness-GR and Wetness-W), a vector describing the current condition of the forest ecosystems was obtained and used as input data from the optical range. Results obtained by implementation of the proposed approach show that the integrated composite images of VIC and SAR represent the degree of recovery.

Petascale Diagnostic Assessment of the Global Portfolio Rainfall Space Missions' Ability to Support Flood Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, P. M.; Chaney, N.; Herman, J. D.; Wood, E. F.; Ferringer, M. P.

2015-12-01

This research represents a multi-institutional collaboration between Cornell University, The Aerospace Corporation, and Princeton University that has completed a Petascale diagnostic assessment of the current 10 satellite missions providing rainfall observations. Our diagnostic assessment has required four core tasks: (1) formally linking high-resolution astrodynamics design and coordination of space assets with their global hydrological impacts within a Petascale "many-objective" global optimization framework, (2) developing a baseline diagnostic evaluation of a 1-degree resolution global implementation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to establish the required satellite observation frequencies and coverage to maintain acceptable global flood forecasts, (3) evaluating the limitations and vulnerabilities of the full suite of current satellite precipitation missions including the recently approved Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, and (4) conceptualizing the next generation spaced-based platforms for water cycle observation. Our team exploited over 100 Million hours of computing access on the 700,000+ core Blue Waters machine to radically advance our ability to discover and visualize key system tradeoffs and sensitivities. This project represents to our knowledge the first attempt to develop a 10,000 member Monte Carlo global hydrologic simulation at one degree resolution that characterizes the uncertain effects of changing the available frequencies of satellite precipitation on drought and flood forecasts. The simulation—optimization components of the work have set a theoretical baseline for the best possible frequencies and coverages for global precipitation given unlimited investment, broad international coordination in reconfiguring existing assets, and new satellite constellation design objectives informed directly by key global hydrologic forecasting requirements. Our research poses a step towards realizing the integrated global water cycle observatory long sought by the World Climate Research Programme, which has to date eluded the world's space agencies.

Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2012-08-15

We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 daysmore » of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.« less

Impacts of Land Cover and Land Use Change on the Hydrology of the US-Mexico Border Region, 1992-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohn, T. J.; Vivoni, E. R.; Mascaro, G.; White, D. D.

2016-12-01

The semi-arid US-Mexico border region has been experiencing rapid urbanization and agricultural expansion over the last several decades, due in part to the lifting of trade barriers of the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), placing additional pressures on the region's already strained water resources. Here we examine the effects of changes in land cover/use over the period 1992-2011 on the region's hydrology and water resources, using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model with an irrigation module to estimate both natural and anthropogenic water fluxes. Land cover has been taken from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) over the US, and from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) database over Mexico, for three snapshots: 1992/3, 2001/2, and 2011. We have performed 3 simulations, one per land cover snapshot, at 6 km resolution, driven by a gridded observed meteorology dataset and a climatology of land surface characteristics derived from remote sensing products. Urban water withdrawal rates were estimated from literature. The primary changes in the region's water budget over the period 1992-2011 consisted of: (1) a shift in agricultural irrigation water withdrawals from the US to Mexico, accompanied by similar shifts in runoff (via agricultural return flow) and evapotranspiration; and (2) a 50% increase in urban water withdrawals, concentrated in the US. Because groundwater supplied most of the additional agricultural withdrawals, and occurred over already over-exploited aquifers, these changes call into question the sustainability of the region's land and water management. By synthesizing the implications of these hydrologic changes, we present a novel view of how NAFTA has altered the US-Mexico border region, possibly in unintended ways.

A Non-Stationary Approach for Estimating Future Hydroclimatic Extremes Using Monte-Carlo Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, K.; Hamlet, A. F.

2017-12-01

There is substantial evidence that observed hydrologic extremes (e.g. floods, extreme stormwater events, and low flows) are changing and that climate change will continue to alter the probability distributions of hydrologic extremes over time. These non-stationary risks imply that conventional approaches for designing hydrologic infrastructure (or making other climate-sensitive decisions) based on retrospective analysis and stationary statistics will become increasingly problematic through time. To develop a framework for assessing risks in a non-stationary environment our study develops a new approach using a super ensemble of simulated hydrologic extremes based on Monte Carlo (MC) methods. Specifically, using statistically downscaled future GCM projections from the CMIP5 archive (using the Hybrid Delta (HD) method), we extract daily precipitation (P) and temperature (T) at 1/16 degree resolution based on a group of moving 30-yr windows within a given design lifespan (e.g. 10, 25, 50-yr). Using these T and P scenarios we simulate daily streamflow using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model for each year of the design lifespan and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) probability distribution to the simulated annual extremes. MC experiments are then used to construct a random series of 10,000 realizations of the design lifespan, estimating annual extremes using the estimated unique GEV parameters for each individual year of the design lifespan. Our preliminary results for two watersheds in Midwest show that there are considerable differences in the extreme values for a given percentile between conventional MC and non-stationary MC approach. Design standards based on our non-stationary approach are also directly dependent on the design lifespan of infrastructure, a sensitivity which is notably absent from conventional approaches based on retrospective analysis. The experimental approach can be applied to a wide range of hydroclimatic variables of interest.

Data Assimilation using observed streamflow and remotely-sensed soil moisture for improving sub-seasonal-to-seasonal forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arumugam, S.; Mazrooei, A.; Lakshmi, V.; Wood, A.

2017-12-01

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts of soil moisture and streamflow provides critical information for water and agricultural systems to support short-term planning and mangement. This study evaluates the role of observed streamflow and remotely-sensed soil moisture from SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) mission in improving S2S streamflow and soil moisture forecasting using data assimilation (DA). We first show the ability to forecast soil moisture at monthly-to-seaasonal time scale by forcing climate forecasts with NASA's Land Information System and then compares the developed soil moisture forecast with the SMAP data over the Southeast US. Our analyses show significant skill in forecasting real-time soil moisture over 1-3 months using climate information. We also show that the developed soil moisture forecasts capture the observed severe drought conditions (2007-2008) over the Southeast US. Following that, we consider both SMAP data and observed streamflow for improving S2S streamflow and soil moisture forecasts for a pilot study area, Tar River basin, in NC. Towards this, we consider variational assimilation (VAR) of gauge-measured daily streamflow data in improving initial hydrologic conditions of Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The utility of data assimilation is then assessed in improving S2S forecasts of streamflow and soil moisture through a retrospective analyses. Furthermore, the optimal frequency of data assimilation and optimal analysis window (number of past observations to use) are also assessed in order to achieve the maximum improvement in S2S forecasts of streamflow and soil moisture. Potential utility of updating initial conditions using DA and providing skillful forcings are also discussed.

Mechanism of groundwater arsenic removal by goethite-coated mineral sand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cashion, J. D.; Khan, S. A.; Patti, A. F.; Adeloju, S.; Gates, W. P.

2017-11-01

Skye sand (Vic, Australia) has been considered for arsenic removal from groundwater. Analysis showed that the silica sand is coated with poorly crystalline goethite, hematite and clay minerals. Mössbauer spectra taken following arsenic adsorption revealed changes in the recoilless fraction and relaxation behaviour of the goethite compared to the original state, showing that the goethite is the main active species.

Peer Influence, Information Quality and Predictive Power of Stock Microblogs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oh, Chong Keat

2013-01-01

Due to the popularity of Web 2.0 and Social Media in the last decade, the percolation of user generated content (UGC) has rapidly increased. In the financial realm, this results in the emergence of virtual investing communities (VIC) to the investing public. There is an on-going debate among scholars and practitioners on whether such UGC contain…

40 CFR 228.15 - Dumping sites designated on a final basis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... designation to establish different or additional standards. The EPA will act on any such petition within 120...) Disposal not subject to the restrictions in paragraphs (b)(4)(vi)(C) through (G) or (b)(4)(vi)(I) of this... prior to the completion of the DMMP and completed within two years after the completion of the DMMP. (J...

Plasma Theory and Simulation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-07-01

l l) A paper t i t led “Part icle-Fluid Hybrid Codes Applied to Beam- Plasma , Ring -Plasma Instabi l i ties ” was presented at Monterey (see Section V...ic le-Fluid Hybr id Codes Applied to Beam- Plasma , Ring -Plasma Ins tab i l i t ies”. (2) A. Peiravi and C. K. Birdsall , “Self-Heating of id Therma l

Senior Executive Service. Executives' Perspectives on Their Federal Service. Fact Sheet for the Honorable Vic Fazio, House of Representatives.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

General Accounting Office, Washington, DC. General Government Div.

The General Accounting Office (GAO) surveyed current Senior Executive Service (SES) (highly placed government civil service) employees to obtain their views regarding their federal employment, including career plans, characteristics, and opinions. The results of the survey were obtained from 348 usable responses from a sample of 430 SES members…

Real-time PCR for simultaneous detection and genotyping of bovine viral diarrhea virus.

PubMed

Letellier, C; Kerkhofs, P

2003-12-01

Since two genotypes of bovine viral diarrhea viruses (BVDV) occur in Belgian herds, their differentiation is important for disease surveillance. A quantitative real-time PCR assay was developed to detect and classify bovine viral diarrhea viruses in genotype I and II. A pair of primers specific for highly conserved regions of the 5'UTR and two TaqMan probes were designed. The FAM and VIC-labeled probe sequences differed by three nucleotides, allowing the differentiation between genotype I and II. The assay detectability of genotype I and II real-time PCR assay was 1000 and 100 copies, respectively. Highly reproducible data were obtained as the coefficients of variation of threshold cycle values in inter-runs were less than 2.2%. The correct classification of genotype I and II viruses was assessed by using reference strains and characterized field isolates of both genotypes. The application to clinical diagnosis was evaluated on pooled blood samples by post run measurement of the FAM- and VIC-associated fluorescence. The 100% agreement with the conventional RT-PCR method confirmed that this new technique could be used for routine detection of persistently infected immunotolerant animals.

What is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, M. L.; Rajagopalan, K.; Chung, S. H.

2014-05-16

Regional climate change impact (CCI) studies have widely involved downscaling and bias-correcting (BC) Global Climate Model (GCM)-projected climate for driving land surface models. However, BC may cause uncertainties in projecting hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to future climate due to the impaired spatiotemporal covariance of climate variables and a breakdown of physical conservation principles. Here we quantify the impact of BC on simulated climate-driven changes in water variables(evapotranspiration, ET; runoff; snow water equivalent, SWE; and water demand for irrigation), crop yield, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC), nitric oxide (NO) emissions, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export over the Pacific Northwest (PNW)more » Region. We also quantify the impacts on net primary production (NPP) over a small watershed in the region (HJ Andrews). Simulation results from the coupled ECHAM5/MPI-OM model with A1B emission scenario were firstly dynamically downscaled to 12 km resolutions with WRF model. Then a quantile mapping based statistical downscaling model was used to downscale them into 1/16th degree resolution daily climate data over historical and future periods. Two series climate data were generated according to the option of bias-correction (i.e. with bias-correction (BC) and without bias-correction, NBC). Impact models were then applied to estimate hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to both BC and NBC meteorological datasets. These im20 pact models include a macro-scale hydrologic model (VIC), a coupled cropping system model (VIC-CropSyst), an ecohydrologic model (RHESSys), a biogenic emissions model (MEGAN), and a nutrient export model (Global-NEWS). Results demonstrate that the BC and NBC climate data provide consistent estimates of the climate-driven changes in water fluxes (ET, runoff, and water demand), VOCs (isoprene and monoterpenes) and NO emissions, mean crop yield, and river DIN export over the PNW domain. However, significant differences rise from projected SWE, crop yield from dry lands, and HJ Andrews’s ET between BC and NBC data. Even though BC post-processing has no significant impacts on most of the studied variables when taking PNW as a whole, their effects have large spatial variations and some local areas are substantially influenced. In addition, there are months during which BC and NBC post-processing produces significant differences in projected changes, such as summer runoff. Factor-controlled simulations indicate that BC post-processing of precipitation and temperature both substantially contribute to these differences at region scales. We conclude that there are trade-offs between using BC climate data for offline CCI studies vs. direct modeled climate data. These trade-offs should be considered when designing integrated modeling frameworks for specific applications; e.g., BC may be more important when considering impacts on reservoir operations in mountainous watersheds than when investigating impacts on biogenic emissions and air quality (where VOCs are a primary indicator).« less

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Stream Temperatures in the Methow River Basin, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangopadhyay, S.; Caldwell, R. J.; Lai, Y.; Bountry, J.

2011-12-01

The Methow River in Washington offers prime spawning habitat for salmon and other cold-water fishes. During the summer months, low streamflows on the Methow result in cutoff side channels that limit the habitat available to these fishes. Future climate scenarios of increasing air temperature and decreasing precipitation suggest the potential for increasing loss of habitat and fish mortality as stream temperatures rise in response to lower flows and additional heating. To assess the impacts of climate change on stream temperature in the Methow River, the US Bureau of Reclamation is developing an hourly time-step, two-dimensional hydraulic model of the confluence of the Methow and Chewuch Rivers above Winthrop. The model will be coupled with a physical stream temperature model to generate spatial representations of stream conditions conducive for fish habitat. In this study, we develop a statistical framework for generating stream temperature time series from global climate model (GCM) and hydrologic model outputs. Regional observations of stream temperature and hydrometeorological conditions are used to develop statistical models of daily mean stream temperature for the Methow River at Winthrop, WA. Temperature and precipitation projections from 10 global climate models (GCMs) are coupled with the streamflow generated using the University of Washington Variable Infiltration Capacity model. The projections serve as input to the statistical models to generate daily time series of mean daily stream temperature. Since the output from the GCM, VIC, and statistical models offer only daily data, a k-nearest neighbor (k-nn) resampling technique is employed to select appropriate proportion vectors for disaggregating the Winthrop daily flow and temperature to an upstream location on each of the rivers above the confluence. Hourly proportion vectors are then used to disaggregate the daily flow and temperature to hourly values to be used in the hydraulic model. Historical meteorological variables are also selected using the k-nn method. We present the statistical modeling framework using Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), along with diagnostics and measurements of skill. We will also provide a comparison of the stream temperature projections from the future years of 2020, 2040, and 2080 and discuss the potential implications on fish habitat in the Methow River. Future integration of the hourly climate scenarios in the hydraulic model will provide the ability to assess the spatial extent of habitat impacts and allow the USBR to evaluate the effectiveness of various river restoration projects in maintaining or improving habitat in a changing climate.

When should irrigators invest in more water-efficient technologies as an adaptation to climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, K.; Adam, J. C.; Stockle, C.; Brady, M.; Yoder, J.

2015-12-01

The western US is expected to experience more frequent droughts with higher magnitudes and persistence due to the climate change, with potentially large impacts on agricultural productivity and the economy. Irrigated farmers have many options for minimizing drought impacts including changing crops, engaging in water markets, and switching irrigation technologies. Switching to more efficient irrigation technologies, which increase water availability in the crop root zone through reduction of irrigation losses, receives significant attention because of the promise of maintaining current production with less. However, more efficient irrigation systems are almost always more capital-intensive adaptation strategy particularly compared to changing crops or trading water. A farmer's decision to switch will depend on how much money they project to save from reducing drought damages. The objective of this study is to explore when (and under what climate change scenarios) it makes sense economically for farmers to invest in a new irrigation system. This study was performed over the Yakima River Basin (YRB) in Washington State, although the tools and information gained from this study are transferable to other watersheds in the western US. We used VIC-CropSyst, a large-scale grid-based modeling framework that simulates hydrological processes while mechanistically capturing crop water use, growth and development. The water flows simulated by VIC-CropSyst were used to run the RiverWare river system and water management model (YAK-RW), which simulates river processes and calculates regional water availability for agricultural use each day (i.e., the prorationing ratio). An automated computational platform has been developed and programed to perform the economic analysis for each grid cell, crop types and future climate projections separately, which allows us to explore whether or not implementing a new irrigation system is economically viable. Results of this study indicate that climate change could justify the investment in new irrigation systems during this century, but the timing of a farmer's response is likely to depend on a variety of factors, including changes in the frequency and magnitude of drought events, current irrigation systems, climatological characteristics within the basin, and crop type.

Predictability of state-level flood damage in the conterminous United States: the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Feng, Leyang

2017-07-13

Understanding historical changes in flood damage and the underlying mechanisms is critical for predicting future changes for better adaptations. In this study, a detailed assessment of flood damage for 1950–1999 is conducted at the state level in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Geospatial datasets on possible influencing factors are then developed by synthesizing natural hazards, population, wealth, cropland and urban area to explore the relations with flood damage. A considerable increase in flood damage in CONUS is recorded for the study period which is well correlated with hazards. Comparably, runoff indexed hazards simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) modelmore » can explain a larger portion of flood damage variations than precipitation in 84% of the states. Cropland is identified as an important factor contributing to increased flood damage in central US while urbanland exhibits positive and negative relations with total flood damage and damage per unit wealth in 20 and 16 states, respectively. Altogether, flood damage in 34 out of 48 investigated states can be predicted at the 90% confidence level. In extreme cases, ~76% of flood damage variations can be explained in some states, highlighting the potential of future flood damage prediction based on climate change and socioeconomic scenarios.« less

Predictability of state-level flood damage in the conterminous United States: the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Feng, Leyang

Understanding historical changes in flood damage and the underlying mechanisms is critical for predicting future changes for better adaptations. In this study, a detailed assessment of flood damage for 1950–1999 is conducted at the state level in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Geospatial datasets on possible influencing factors are then developed by synthesizing natural hazards, population, wealth, cropland and urban area to explore the relations with flood damage. A considerable increase in flood damage in CONUS is recorded for the study period which is well correlated with hazards. Comparably, runoff indexed hazards simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) modelmore » can explain a larger portion of flood damage variations than precipitation in 84% of the states. Cropland is identified as an important factor contributing to increased flood damage in central US while urbanland exhibits positive and negative relations with total flood damage and damage per unit wealth in 20 and 16 states, respectively. Altogether, flood damage in 34 out of 48 investigated states can be predicted at the 90% confidence level. In extreme cases, ~76% of flood damage variations can be explained in some states, highlighting the potential of future flood damage prediction based on climate change and socioeconomic scenarios.« less

A 3-step framework for understanding the added value of surface soil moisture measurements for large-scale runoff prediction via data assimilation - a synthetic study in the Arkansas-Red River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Y.; Crow, W. T.; Nijssen, B.

2017-12-01

Soil moisture (SM) plays an important role in runoff generation both by partitioning infiltration and surface runoff during rainfall events and by controlling the rate of subsurface flow during inter-storm periods. Therefore, more accurate SM state estimation in hydrologic models is potentially beneficial for streamflow prediction. Various previous studies have explored the potential of assimilating SM data into hydrologic models for streamflow improvement. These studies have drawn inconsistent conclusions, ranging from significantly improved runoff via SM data assimilation (DA) to limited or degraded runoff. These studies commonly treat the whole assimilation procedure as a black box without separating the contribution of each step in the procedure, making it difficult to attribute the underlying causes of runoff improvement (or the lack thereof). In this study, we decompose the overall DA process into three steps by answering the following questions (3-step framework): 1) how much can assimilation of surface SM measurements improve surface SM state in a hydrologic model? 2) how much does surface SM improvement propagate to deeper layers? 3) How much does (surface and deeper-layer) SM improvement propagate into runoff improvement? A synthetic twin experiment is carried out in the Arkansas-Red River basin ( 600,000 km2) where a synthetic "truth" run, an open-loop run (without DA) and a DA run (where synthetic surface SM measurements are assimilated) are generated. All model runs are performed at 1/8 degree resolution and over a 10-year period using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model at a 3-hourly time step. For the DA run, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method is applied. The updated surface and deeper-layer SM states with DA are compared to the open-loop SM to quantitatively evaluate the first two steps in the framework. To quantify the third step, a set of perfect-state runs are generated where the "true" SM states are directly inserted in the model to assess the maximum possible runoff improvement that can be achieved by improving SM states alone. Our results show that the 3-step framework is able to effectively identify the potential as well as bottleneck of runoff improvement and point out the cases where runoff improvement via assimilation of surface SM is prone to failure.

Smoke Emission Tests on Series II and Series III Allison T56 Turboprop Engines

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-12-01

Buioary ■ (13) available to ARL of aromatic content of AVTUR from Australian sources. The US data was obtained from information contained in Sheldon...Library Flight Standards Division Statutory and State Authorities and Industry Australian Atomic Energy Commiasion, Director Australian Airlines...Ampol Petroleum (Vic) Pty Md, Lubricant Sales & Service Mgr Ansett Airlines of Australia, Library Australian Coal Industry Research Labs

Vascular Plant Species of the Forest Ecology Research and Demonstration Area, Paul Smith's, New York

Treesearch

Gary L. Wade; Jonathan A. Myers; Cecilia R. Martin; Kathie Detmar; William, III Mator; Mark J. Twery; Mike Rechlin

2003-01-01

Five forest harvest methods (single-tree selection, group selection, two-age cut, shelterwood cut, and clearcut) are being demonstrated on 5-acre tracts near the Adirondack Park Agency?s Visitor Interpretation Center (VIC) at Paul Smith?s, New York. The tracts are part of the agency?s Forest Ecology Research and Demonstration Area. A primary goal is to show visitors...

Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication (82nd, New Orleans, Louisiana, August 3-8, 1999). Mass Communication and Society.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication.

The Mass Communication and Society section of the Proceedings contains the following 17 papers: "Interactivity and the 'Cyber-Fan': Audience Involvement within the Electronic Fan Culture of the Internet" (Vic Costello); "A Reassessment of the Relationship between Public Affairs Media Use and Political Orientations" (Kim A.…

Mécanique de Nonéquilibre à la Californienne

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoover, Wm. G.

1997-02-01

Academic freedom, combined with generous travel grants and tax-supported computing, made possible my 35 years' study of many-body problems. Here I first review some of the many high points of those years. I then describe recent work - with Harald Posch, Oyeon Kum, my wife Carol, Siegfried Hess, and Vic Castillo - which links together particle and continuum mechanics through “SPAM”, Smooth Particle Applied Mechanics.

Prior infection of pigs with a recent human H3N2 influenza virus confers minimal cross-protection against a European swine H3N2 virus.

PubMed

Qiu, Yu; van der Meulen, Karen; Van Reeth, Kristien

2013-11-01

H3N2 influenza viruses circulating in humans and European pigs originate from the pandemic A/Hong Kong/68 virus. Because of slower antigenic drift in swine, the antigenic divergence between swine and human viruses has been increasing. It remains unknown to what extent this results in a reduced cross-protection between recent human and swine H3N2 influenza viruses. We examined whether prior infection of pigs with an old [A/Victoria/3/75 (A/Vic/75)] or a more recent [A/Wisconsin/67/05 (A/Wis/05)] human H3N2 virus protected against a European swine H3N2 virus [sw/Gent/172/08 (sw/Gent/08)]. Genetic and antigenic relationships between sw/Gent/08 and a selection of human H3N2 viruses were also assessed. After challenge with sw/Gent/08, all challenge controls had high virus titers in the entire respiratory tract at 3 days post-challenge and nasal virus excretion for 5-6 days. Prior infection with sw/Gent/08 or A/Vic/75 offered complete virological protection against challenge. Pigs previously inoculated with A/Wis/05 showed similar virus titers in the respiratory tract as challenge controls, but the mean duration of nasal shedding was 1·3 days shorter. Unlike sw/Gent/08- and A/Vic/75-inoculated pigs, A/Wis/05-inoculated pigs lacked cross-reactive neutralizing antibodies against sw/Gent/08 before challenge, but they showed a more rapid antibody response to sw/Gent/08 than challenge controls after challenge. Cross-protection and serological responses correlated with genetic and antigenic differences. Infection immunity to a recent human H3N2 virus confers minimal cross-protection against a European swine H3N2 virus. We discuss our findings with regard to the recent zoonotic infections of humans in the United States with a swine-origin H3N2 variant virus. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Principals' reports of adults' alcohol use in Australian secondary schools.

PubMed

Ward, Bernadette M; Kippen, Rebecca; Buykx, Penny; Munro, Geoffrey; McBride, Nyanda; Wiggers, John

2016-02-29

Schools provide opportunities for parents and the wider community to connect and support the physical and emotional wellbeing of their children. Schools therefore have the potential to play a role in the socialisation of alcohol use through school policies and practices regarding consumption of alcohol by adults at school events in the presence of children. This survey was undertaken to a) compare the extent to which alcohol is used at secondary school events, when children are present, in the states of New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria (VIC), Australia; b) describe principals' level of agreement with these practices; c) their awareness of state policies on this issue; and d) the predictors of such events. A random sample of secondary schools, stratified to represent metropolitan and non-metropolitan schools were invited to participate. Bivariate and multivariate analysis were conducted with p values < 0.05 considered significant. A total of 241 (43%) schools consented to participate in the study. Fifteen percent of participating NSW schools and 57% of VIC schools held at least one event in which alcohol was consumed by adults in the presence of children in the year before the survey. Of the 100 reported events, 78% were Year 12 graduation dinners, and 18% were debutante balls. Compared to NSW principals, VIC principals were significantly more likely to agree with the use of alcohol at these events; significantly less likely to be aware of their state education department policy on this issue; have a policy at their own school or support policy that prohibits alcohol use at such events; and less likely to report having enough information to make decisions about this. There is a growing focus on adults' use of alcohol at school events when children are present. Schools can play an important role in educating and socialising children about alcohol via both the curriculum and policies regarding adults' alcohol use at school events. Findings from this study suggest education department and school-based policies that prohibit or restrict the use of alcohol, are significant predictors of adults' alcohol use at school events when children are present.

Climate-induced alteration of hydrologic indicators in the Athabasca River Basin, Alberta, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eum, Hyung-Il; Dibike, Yonas; Prowse, Terry

2017-01-01

The hydrologic response of the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) in Alberta to projected changes in the future climate is investigated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) process-based and distributed hydrologic model. The model forcings are derived from a selected set of GCMs from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) statistically downscaled to a higher resolution (10 km) over Canada. Twelve hydrologic indicators that represent the magnitude and timing of the hydrologic regimes are evaluated for three 30-year time periods centered at the 1990s, 2050s and 2080s to identify significant alterations of hydrologic regimes between the reference and the two future periods using a t-test at 5% significance level. Hydrologic alteration factors (HAF) are also evaluated for each hydrologic indicator using the range of variability approach (RVA) to investigate projected changes in the distribution of these indicators. The results show increases in spring and winter flows for the two future periods at all hydrometric stations within the basin, resulting in an extended period of spring freshet. A higher rate of increase is projected for the stations located at the upper reach of the river because of the combined effects of increased precipitation and earlier snowmelt resulting from a warming climate. By contrast, summer flows are projected to decrease by up to 21% on average in the 2080s over most of the mainstem stations because of earlier snowmelt, increased evapotranspiration and no significant increase in summer precipitation. A water-management rule that optimizes impacts of water withdrawal from the lower reach of the Athabasca River under the current condition is also applied to the future scenarios to assess its relative performance under the projected climate conditions. The results indicate possible improvement in the water resources system performance in terms of increased reliability and resilience and reduced vulnerability during the two future periods as compared with those in the reference period mainly because of the projected increases in spring and winter flows, which has the potential to offset an expected future water deficit.

Computer-aided design, synthesis and biological assay of p-methylsulfonamido phenylethylamine analogues.

PubMed

Liu, H; Ji, M; Jiang, H; Liu, L; Hua, W; Chen, K; Ji, R

2000-10-02

Class III antiarrhythmic agents selectively delay the effective refractory period (ERP) and increase the transmembrance action potential duration (APD). Based on our previous studies, a set of 17 methylsulfonamido phenylethylamine analogues were investigated by 3D-QSAR techniques of CoMFA and CoMSIA. The 3D-QSAR models proved a good predictive ability, and could describe the steric, electrostatic and hydrophobic requirements for recognition forces of the receptor site. According to the clues provided by this 3D-QSAR analysis, we designed and synthesized a series of new analogues of methanesulfonamido phenylethylamine (VIa-i). Pharmacological assay indicated that the effective concentrations of delaying the functional refractory period (FRP) 10ms of these new compounds have a good correlation with the 3D-QSAR predicted values. It is remarkable that the maximal percent change of delaying FRP in microM of compound VIc is much higher than that of dofetilide. The results showed that the 3D-QSAR models are reliable.

Comparison with CLPX II airborne data using DMRT model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xu, X.; Liang, D.; Andreadis, K.M.; Tsang, L.; Josberger, E.G.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we considered a physical-based model which use numerical solution of Maxwell Equations in three-dimensional simulations and apply into Dense Media Radiative Theory (DMRT). The model is validated in two specific dataset from the second Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX II) at Alaska and Colorado. The data were all obtain by the Ku-band (13.95GHz) observations using airborne imaging polarimetric scatterometer (POLSCAT). Snow is a densely packed media. To take into account the collective scattering and incoherent scattering, analytical Quasi-Crystalline Approximation (QCA) and Numerical Maxwell Equation Method of 3-D simulation (NMM3D) are used to calculate the extinction coefficient and phase matrix. DMRT equations were solved by iterative solution up to 2nd order for the case of small optical thickness and full multiple scattering solution by decomposing the diffuse intensities into Fourier series was used when optical thickness exceed unity. It was shown that the model predictions agree with the field experiment not only co-polarization but also cross-polarization. For Alaska region, the input snow structure data was obtain by the in situ ground observations, while for Colorado region, we combined the VIC model to get the snow profile. ??2009 IEEE.

Using the Autism Detection in Early Childhood (ADEC) and Childhood Autism Rating Scales (CARS) to Predict Long Term Outcomes in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nah, Yong-Hwee; Young, Robyn L.; Brewer, Neil

2014-01-01

This study evaluated the predictive validity of the Autism Detection in Early Childhood (ADEC; Young, Autism detection in early childhood: ADEC. Australian Council of Educational Research, Camberwell, VIC 2007) and a well-established screening tool, the Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS; Schopler et al. The childhood autism rating scale (CARS).…

A Computerized Wear Particle Atlas for Ferrogram and Filtergram Analyses

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-01-01

A Computerised Wear Particle Atlas for Ferrogram and Filtergram Analyses Jian G. Ding Lubrosoft P/L P 0 Box 2368, Rowville Melbourne VIC 3178...Australia (61-3) 9759-9083 Abstract: A new computerised wear particle atlas has been developed for identification of solid particles and...differentiation of wear severity of lubricated equipment. This atlas contains 892 images of representative solid particles selected from thousands of filtergram

Changing the Paradigm: Simulation, a Method of First Resort

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

Environment xvii USAF United States Air Force USD(I) Under Secretary of Defense (Intelligence) V&V Verification and Validation VIC Vector -in...continued use throughout the operations research community, and is perhaps best known from Harvey Wagner’s seminal textbook Principles of Operations...pages 887 and 890 of Harvey Wagner’s seminal textbook Principles of Operations Research (Wagner, 1969). Why was this the paradigm of the time? Was

Changes in abundance of vascular plants under varying silvicultural systems at the Forest Ecosystem Research and Demonstration Area, Paul Smiths, New York

Treesearch

Mark J. Twery; Elizabeth Olson; Gary L. Wade; Michael. Rechlin

2013-01-01

The Forest Ecosystem Research and Demonstration Area (FERDA) was established in 1998 adjacent to the Visitor Interpretive Center (VIC) for the Adirondack Park in Paul Smiths, NY, to provide visitors with first-hand exposure to forest management activities and to provide research opportunities for scientists and students at Paul Smith's College. This research note...

Betulin inhibits cariogenic properties of Streptococcus mutans by targeting vicRK and gtf genes.

PubMed

Viszwapriya, Dharmaprakash; Subramenium, Ganapathy Ashwinkumar; Radhika, Solai; Pandian, Shunmugiah Karutha

2017-01-01

Streptococcus mutans, a multivirulent pathogen is considered the primary etiological agent in dental caries. Development of antibiotic resistance in the pathogen has created a need for novel antagonistic agents which can control the virulence of the organism and reduce resistance development. The present study demonstrates the in vitro anti-virulence potential of betulin (lup-20(29)-ene-3β,28-diol), an abundantly available plant triterpenoid against S. mutans UA159. Betulin exhibited significant dose dependent antibiofilm activity without affecting bacterial viability. At 240 µg/ml (biofilm inhibitory concentration), betulin inhibited biofilm formation and adherence to smooth glass surfaces by 93 and 71 % respectively. It reduced water insoluble glucan synthesis by 89 %, in conjunction with down regulation of gtfBC genes. Microscopic analysis confirmed the disruption in biofilm architecture and decreased exopolysaccharide production. Acidogenicity and aciduricity, key virulence factors responsible for carious lesions, were also notably affected. The induced auto-aggregation of cells upon treatment could be due to the down regulation of vicK. Results of gene expression analysis demonstrated significant down-regulation of virulence genes upon betulin treatment. Furthermore, the nontoxic effect of betulin on peripheral blood mononuclear cells even after 72 h treatment makes it a strong candidate for assessing its suitability to be used as a therapeutic agent.

Effect of thyroid status on the expression of metabolic enzymes during chronic stimulation.

PubMed

Hood, D A; Simoneau, J A; Kelly, A M; Pette, D

1992-10-01

The effect of thyroid status on the expression of cytochrome c oxidase (CYTOX) and the activities of citrate synthase (CS) and phosphofructokinase (PFK) were examined in chronically stimulated (10 Hz; 35 days) and contralateral, nonstimulated rat tibialis anterior muscle of hypothyroid, hyperthyroid, and euthyroid animals. Stimulation increased CYTOX activity by 2.7-, 3.2-, and 4.9-fold in hyperthyroid, euthyroid, and hypothyroid animals, respectively, to similar absolute values. CS displayed similar increases. Stimulation reduced PFK activity in hypothyroid and euthyroid animals to 45% and 60% of control values. This effect was abolished with hyperthyroidism. Thus stimulation and thyroid hormone act antagonistically on PFK activity. Stimulation increased CYTOX subunit III (mitochondrially encoded) mRNA by 2.5- and 2.9-fold in hyperthyroid and euthyroid animals. Similar increases were observed in the nuclear-encoded mRNAs of CYTOX subunit VIc in euthyroid muscle. In hyperthyroid and euthyroid conditions, the mRNA changes paralleled the increases in enzyme activity. In hypothyroid muscle, the increase in mRNA was less for subunit VIc than III, suggesting that hypothyroidism upsets the coordinate expression of nuclear and mitochondrial genes. Further, the increases in CYTOX activity exceeded that of both subunit mRNAs in hypothyroid muscle.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Changing Demands from Riparian Evapotranspiration and Free-Water Evaporation in the Lower Colorado River Basin Under Different Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunk, D. A.; Piechota, T. C.

2012-12-01

Observed and projected trends in riparian evapotranspiration (ET) and free-water evaporation are examined to improve water demand forecasting for use in modeling of lower Colorado River system reservoir operations. While most previous research has focused on the impacts of climate change and climate variability on water supply, the impacts on water demand under changing climate conditions have not been adequately addressed (NRC, 2007 and Reclamation, 2009). Increases in temperatures and changes in precipitation and wind patterns are expected to increase evaporative demands (Bates and others, 2008), potentially increasing free-water evaporation and ET from riparian vegetation; increasing infiltration rates; altering cropping patterns; and changing the temporal and spatial distribution of water deliveries. This study uses observations and projections under changing climate scenarios of hydroclimatic variables, such as temperature, wind, and precipitation, to analyze their impacts on riparian ET and free-water evaporation in the lower Colorado River mainstream downstream of Lake Mead and Hoover Dam. The projected changes in evaporative demands were assessed to determine their impacts on water supply and reservoir operations in the Colorado River basin under changing climate conditions. Based on analysis of observed and projected hydroclimatic data from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, mean annual daily temperature in the lower Colorado River mainstream reach has increased by 0.8° Celsius (C) from the 30-year period ending in 1980 to period ending in 2010 and is projected to increase by an additional 1.7° C by 30-year period ending in 2060. Analysis of riparian ET derived from the ASCE Penman-Monteith method (Allen et al., 2005, from Monteith, 1965 and 1981) and Westenburg et al. (2006) and free-water evaporation derived from the Penman combination model in Dingman (2008) indicates that combined evaporative demand in the lower Colorado River mainstream increased by 14,800 acre-feet, or 1.8 percent, during the 30-year period ending in 2010, and may increase by an additional 16,600 acre-feet, or 2.0 percent, during the 30-year period ending in 2060, when compared to the period from 1951 to 1980. With this projected increase in evaporative demands, the combined storage of Lake Powell and Lake Mead are projected to decrease by a cumulative volume of 75,400 acre-feet, or 0.15 percent of total conservation capacity, based on 10-year running averages ending in years 2020 to 2060. In addition, average annual shortage volumes in the lower Colorado River basin are projected to increase by 40,000 acre-feet, or 0.30 percent, from 2013 to 2060.

Irondequoit Creek Watershed New York, Final Feasibility Report and Environmental Impact Statement.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-03-01

National Flood Insurance Program 58 8 System of Accounts 95 9 Summary of Benefits and Costs 96 10 Summary of Average Annual Benefits - Selected Plan 112...material, velocity distribution, vegetation, soil type, topography, and especially rainfall regime, where a few intense storms can account for severe...Alternative B is described later in this report. Flood Insurance - Flood insurance provides some financial protection to vic- tims of flood related

Calling for the absent male.

PubMed

Edgar, D

1999-08-01

This is an edited version of a keynote address given by Dr Don Edgar at both the VicHealth Conference on 'Healthy Relationships in the Workplace' held in August 1998 and the Tasmanian Men's Health Conference held in Launceston in November 1998. Men's lack of communication skills and emotional intelligence has serious negative consequences for their own physical and mental health, the wellbeing of their families and for the quality of their performance in the workplace.

Integrated Modeling to Assess the Impacts of Changes in Climate and Socio Economics on Agriculture in the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopalan, K.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Adam, J. C.; Malek, K.; Nelson, R.; Stockle, C.; Brady, M.; Dinesh, S.; Barber, M. E.; Yorgey, G.; Kruger, C.

2012-12-01

The objective of this work is to assess the impacts of climate change and socio economics on agriculture in the Columbia River basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. and a portion of Southwestern Canada. The water resources of the CRB are managed to satisfy multiple objectives including agricultural withdrawal, which is the largest consumptive user of CRB water with 14,000 square kilometers of irrigated area. Agriculture is an important component of the region's economy, with an annual value over 5 billion in Washington State alone. Therefore, the region is relevant for applying a modeling framework that can aid agriculture decision making in the context of a changing climate. To do this, we created an integrated biophysical and socio-economic regional modeling framework that includes human and natural systems. The modeling framework captures the interactions between climate, hydrology, crop growth dynamics, water management and socio economics. The biophysical framework includes a coupled macro-scale physically-based hydrology model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC model), and crop growth model (CropSyst), as well as a reservoir operations simulation model. Water rights data and instream flow target requirements are also incorporated in the model to simulate the process of curtailment during water shortage. The economics model informs the biophysical model of the short term agricultural producer response to water shortage as well as the long term agricultural producer response to domestic growth and international trade in terms of an altered cropping pattern. The modeling framework was applied over the CRB for the historical period 1976-2006 and compared to a future 30-year period centered on the 2030s. Impacts of climate change on irrigation water availability, crop irrigation demand, frequency of curtailment, and crop yields are quantified and presented. Sensitivity associated with estimates of water availability, irrigation demand, crop yields, unmet demand and available instream flows due to climate inputs, hydrology and crop model parameterization, water management assumptions, model integration assumptions, as well as multiple socio economic alternatives are also presented. Compared to historical conditions, for the 2030s time period, our results show an average additional irrigation water demand requirement of 370 million cubic meters in the CRB, an increased frequency of curtailment and a revenue impact between 70 and $150 million resulting from adverse crop yield impacts due to curtailment in the state of Washington. The impacts vary spatially and some of the CRB tributary watersheds are impacted more than others, e.g., unmet demand in the Yakima River basin is expected to increase by 50%. Increased irrigation demand, coupled with decreased seasonal supply poses difficult water resources management questions in the region.

Manpower Requirements Report for FY 1981.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-02-01

Defense Department as the employer of military personnel. Payments are influenced by the levels of basic pay and the Social Security tax rates ...Manpower Costs X-5 Current Civilian and Military Pay Rates X-13 viC / 1.. C ’, v i I~~~7 󈨑’ ... . Chapter XI All-Volunteer Force; Introduction lT-i...This decline is expected to continue, but at a lesser rate . Outpatient visits to DoD medical facilities have remained relatively stable. The military

Investigation of Microwave Monolithic Integrated Circuit (MMIC) Non-Reciprocal Millimeterwave Components

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-09-01

nickel zinc ferrite films and (2) sputtering of barium hexaferrites with C-axis oriented normally to the film plane. The SSP tech- nique potential for...M-Wave, Components, Ferrites, Films , Yig, Nickel, Zinc , Hexagonal, R96E Measurements, Frequency, Magnetic, Barium Ferrite 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION...techniques to integrate millimeter-wave ferrite devices with GaAs VI&Cs. APPROACH Our approach was to deposit ferrite thin films on GaAs sub- strates in a

Topographic Information Requirements and Computer-Graphic Display Techniques for Nap-of-the-Earth Flight.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-12-01

required of the Army aviator. The successful accomplishment of many of these activities depends upon the aviator’s ability to extract information from maps...Cruise NOE VBI Determine Position VB2 Crew Coordination (Topographic) VB3 Radio Communication VI . TERM4INATION C. Post-Flight VIC1 Debriefing 11LA 1I...NOE FUNCTION: VBI DETERMINE POSITION INFORMATION REQUIREMENT SPECIFICS SOURCE COMMENTS See Function IIIAl ! FUNCTION: VB2 CREW COORDINATION

Integrating valve-inspired design features into poly(ethylene glycol) hydrogel scaffolds for heart valve tissue engineering.

PubMed

Zhang, Xing; Xu, Bin; Puperi, Daniel S; Yonezawa, Aline L; Wu, Yan; Tseng, Hubert; Cuchiara, Maude L; West, Jennifer L; Grande-Allen, K Jane

2015-03-01

The development of advanced scaffolds that recapitulate the anisotropic mechanical behavior and biological functions of the extracellular matrix in leaflets would be transformative for heart valve tissue engineering. In this study, anisotropic mechanical properties were established in poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) hydrogels by crosslinking stripes of 3.4 kDa PEG diacrylate (PEGDA) within 20 kDa PEGDA base hydrogels using a photolithographic patterning method. Varying the stripe width and spacing resulted in a tensile elastic modulus parallel to the stripes that was 4.1-6.8 times greater than that in the perpendicular direction, comparable to the degree of anisotropy between the circumferential and radial orientations in native valve leaflets. Biomimetic PEG-peptide hydrogels were prepared by tethering the cell-adhesive peptide RGDS and incorporating the collagenase-degradable peptide PQ (GGGPQG↓IWGQGK) into the polymer network. The specific amounts of RGDS and PEG-PQ within the resulting hydrogels influenced the elongation, de novo extracellular matrix deposition and hydrogel degradation behavior of encapsulated valvular interstitial cells (VICs). In addition, the morphology and activation of VICs grown atop PEG hydrogels could be modulated by controlling the concentration or micro-patterning profile of PEG-RGDS. These results are promising for the fabrication of PEG-based hydrogels using anatomically and biologically inspired scaffold design features for heart valve tissue engineering. Copyright © 2014 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Landscape Visualisation on the Internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imhof, M. P.; Cox, M. T.; Harvey, D. W.; Heemskerk, G. E.; Pettit, C. J.

2012-07-01

The Victorian Resources Online (VRO) website (http://www.dpi.vic.gov.au/vro) is the principal means for accessing landscapebased information in Victoria. In this paper we introduce a range of online landscape visualisations that have been developed to enhance existing static web content around the nature and distribution of Victoria's landforms and soils as well as associated processes. Flash is used to develop online visualisations that include interactive landscape panoramas, animations of soil and landscape processes and videos of experts explaining features in the field as well as landscape "flyovers". The use of interactive visualisations adds rich information multimedia content to otherwise static pages and offers the potential to improve user's appreciation and understanding of soil and landscapes. Visualisation is becoming a key component of knowledge management activities associated with VRO - proving useful for both "knowledge capture" (from subject matter specialists) and "knowledge transfer" to a diverse user base. A range of useful visualisation products have been made available online, with varying degrees of interactivity and suited to a variety of users. The use of video files, animation and interactive visualisations is adding rich information content to otherwise static web pages. These information products offer new possibilities to enhance learning of landscapes and the effectiveness of these will be tested as the next phase of development.

Augmenting the access grid using augmented reality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ying

2012-01-01

The Access Grid (AG) targets an advanced collaboration environment, with which multi-party group of people from remote sites can collaborate over high-performance networks. However, current AG still employs VIC (Video Conferencing Tool) to offer only pure video for remote communication, while most AG users expect to collaboratively refer and manipulate the 3D geometric models of grid services' results in live videos of AG session. Augmented Reality (AR) technique can overcome the deficiencies with its characteristics of combining virtual and real, real-time interaction and 3D registration, so it is necessary for AG to utilize AR to better assist the advanced collaboration environment. This paper introduces an effort to augment the AG by adding support for AR capability, which is encapsulated in the node service infrastructure, named as Augmented Reality Service (ARS). The ARS can merge the 3D geometric models of grid services' results and real video scene of AG into one AR environment, and provide the opportunity for distributed AG users to interactively and collaboratively participate in the AR environment with better experience.

Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) Products, Services and Application from NASA Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fang, Hongliang; Beaudoing, Hiroko K.; Rodell, matthew; Teng, William L.; Vollmer, Bruce E.

2009-01-01

The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) is generating a series of land surface state (e.g., soil moisture and surface temperature) and flux (e.g., evaporation and sensible heat flux) products simulated by four land surface models (CLM, Mosaic, Noah and VIC). These products are now accessible at the Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC), a component of the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). Current data holdings include a set of 1.0 degree resolution data products from the four models, covering 1979 to the present; and a 0.25 degree data product from the Noah model, covering 2000 to the present. The products are in Gridded Binary (GRIB) format and can be accessed through a number of interfaces. Users can search the products through keywords and perform on-the-fly spatial and parameter subsetting and format conversion of selected data. More advanced visualization, access and analysis capabilities will be available in the future. The long term GLDAS data are used to develop climatology of water cycle components and to explore the teleconnections of droughts and pluvial.

Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) Products from NASA Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fang, Hongliang; Hrubiak, Patricia; Kato, Hiroko; Rodell, Matthew; Teng, William L.; Vollmer, Bruce E.

2008-01-01

The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) is generating a series of land surface state (e.g., soil moisture and surface temperature) and flux (e.g., evaporation and sensible heat flux) products simulated by four land surface models (CLM, Mosaic, Noah and VIC). These products are now accessible at the Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC), a component of the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). Current data holdings include a set of 1.0 degree resolution data products from the four models, covering 1979 to the present; and a 0.25 degree data product from the Noah model, covering 2000 to the present. The products are in Gridded Binary (GRIB) format and can be accessed through a number of interfaces. New data formats (e.g., netCDF), temporal averaging and spatial subsetting will be available in the future. The HDISC has the capability to support more hydrology data products and more advanced analysis tools. The goal is to develop HDISC as a data and services portal that supports weather and climate forecast, and water and energy cycle research.

Four decades of microwave satellite soil moisture observations: Part 2. Product validation and inter-satellite comparisons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karthikeyan, L.; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Kumar, D. Nagesh; Wood, Eric F.

2017-11-01

Soil moisture is widely recognized as an important land surface variable that provides a deeper knowledge of land-atmosphere interactions and climate change. Space-borne passive and active microwave sensors have become valuable and essential sources of soil moisture observations at global scales. Over the past four decades, several active and passive microwave sensors have been deployed, along with the recent launch of two fully dedicated missions (SMOS and SMAP). Signifying the four decades of microwave remote sensing of soil moisture, this Part 2 of the two-part review series aims to present an overview of how our knowledge in this field has improved in terms of the design of sensors and their accuracy for retrieving soil moisture. The first part discusses the developments made in active and passive microwave soil moisture retrieval algorithms. We assess the evolution of the products of various sensors over the last four decades, in terms of daily coverage, temporal performance, and spatial performance, by comparing the products of eight passive sensors (SMMR, SSM/I, TMI, AMSR-E, WindSAT, AMSR2, SMOS and SMAP), two active sensors (ERS-Scatterometer, MetOp-ASCAT), and one active/passive merged soil moisture product (ESA-CCI combined product) with the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) in-situ stations and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model simulations over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). In the process, the regional impacts of vegetation conditions on the spatial and temporal performance of soil moisture products are investigated. We also carried out inter-satellite comparisons to study the roles of sensor design and algorithms on the retrieval accuracy. We find that substantial improvements have been made over recent years in this field in terms of daily coverage, retrieval accuracy, and temporal dynamics. We conclude that the microwave soil moisture products have significantly evolved in the last four decades and will continue to make key contributions to the progress of hydro-meteorological and climate sciences.

Merging Station Observations with Large-Scale Gridded Data to Improve Hydrological Predictions over Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, L.; Sheffield, J.; Verbist, K. M. J.

2016-12-01

Hydrological predictions at regional-to-global scales are often hampered by the lack of meteorological forcing data. The use of large-scale gridded meteorological data is able to overcome this limitation, but these data are subject to regional biases and unrealistic values at local scale. This is especially challenging in regions such as Chile, where climate exhibits high spatial heterogeneity as a result of long latitude span and dramatic elevation changes. However, regional station-based observational datasets are not fully exploited and have the potential of constraining biases and spatial patterns. This study aims at adjusting precipitation and temperature estimates from the Princeton University global meteorological forcing (PGF) gridded dataset to improve hydrological simulations over Chile, by assimilating 982 gauges from the Dirección General de Aguas (DGA). To merge station data with the gridded dataset, we use a state-space estimation method to produce optimal gridded estimates, considering both the error of the station measurements and the gridded PGF product. The PGF daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature at 0.25° spatial resolution are adjusted for the period of 1979-2010. Precipitation and temperature gauges with long and continuous records (>70% temporal coverage) are selected, while the remaining stations are used for validation. The leave-one-out cross validation verifies the robustness of this data assimilation approach. The merged dataset is then used to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model over Chile at daily time step which are compared to the observations of streamflow. Our initial results show that the station-merged PGF precipitation effectively captures drizzle and the spatial pattern of storms. Overall the merged dataset has significant improvements compared to the original PGF with reduced biases and stronger inter-annual variability. The invariant spatial pattern of errors between the station data and the gridded product opens up the possibility of merging real-time satellite and intermittent gauge observations to produce more accurate real-time hydrological predictions.

Does the GPM mission resolve the systematic error dependence with climatology and topography - a statistical and hydrologic evaluation over India?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beria, H.; Nanda, T., Sr.; Bisht, D. S.; Chatterjee, C.

2016-12-01

Increasing hydrologic extremes in a changing climate with lack of quality rainfall forcings have inspired the development of a number of satellite and reanalysis based precipitation products in the past decade. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has emerged as the front runner in this race, providing high quality precipitation forcings in the tropical part of the world. However, TRMM is known to suffer from its poor sensitivity to low rainfall intensities due to limited resolving power of its sensors, and is also not known to accurately resolve topography in its rainfall estimates. The Global Precipitation Mission (GPM), a follow-up mission of TRMM, promises enhanced spatio-temporal resolution along with upgrades in sensors and rainfall estimation techniques. In this study, the rainfall estimates of Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), was compared with those of TRMM for the major basins in India for the year 2014. IMERG depicted higher skill (in terms of correlation) for the majority of basins at all rainfall intensities, with a drastic improvement in low rainfall estimates (smaller biases in 75 out of 86 basins). IMERG was found to improve the topographic resolution, with lower error in high elevation basins. IMERG could better resolve the sharp topographic gradient in the Western Ghat region of India. However, IMERG suffered from poor skill in the semi-arid basins of Rajasthan, at all rainfall intensities. Rainfall-runoff exercise over Mahanadi River basin (a flood prone basin on the Eastern coast of India) using Variable Infiltration Capacity Model (VIC) showed better simulations with TRMM, mainly due to the overestimation of low rainfall events by IMERG. Also, the calibration scheme could be put to fault as the period of availability of IMERG is rather small, and more in-depth hydrologic analysis could only be carried out with sufficiently longer time series. Overall, the fine spatial and temporal resolution along with improved accuracy, promises new horizons in hydrologic forecasting under data scarcity.

2003 megafires in Australia: impact on tropospheric ozone and aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerova, G.; Jones, N.

2009-01-01

2003 was a record year for wildfires worldwide. Severe forest fires killed four people, displaced 20 500 others and burnt 260 000 ha in South-East Australia in January 2003. The uncontrolled fires ignited in early January 2003 as a result of a prolonged El Niño drought in South-East Australia. Severe weather conditions resulted in a fast spread of the fires and poor air quality in a region where 70% of the population of Australia lives. We use state-of-art global chemistry and transport model GEOS-Chem in conjunction with ground- and space-based observations to study the ozone (O3) and aerosol enhancement due to fires. Firstly, the monthly mean surface O3 and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) in January 2003 are compared to January 2004 and, secondly, from sensitivity model simulations, four episodes are isolated and an attempt is made to quantify the contribution of the fires to air quality in south and South-East Australia. In January 2003 the observed monthly mean afternoon surface O3 in Victoria (VIC) and South Australia (SA) reached 27.5 ppb, which is 6.5 ppb (i.e. 30%) higher than in 2004. The simulated O3 is 29.5 ppb, which is 10 ppb higher than in 2004. While the model tends to overestimate the observed peak O3, it exhibits very good skill in reproducing the O3 temporal variability in January 2003 with a correlation of 0.83. In VIC, the air quality 4-h ozone (O3) standard exceedences are reported on 17, 24 and 25 January. On 12, 17, 24-25 and 29 January 2003, the observed O3 peaks above 40 ppb and the simulated fire contribution is higher than 10 ppb. During these 4 episodes, the range of observed O3 enhancement due to fires is 20-35 ppb, which is a factor of 3 to 5 higher than the monthly mean. The simulated fire O3 enhancement is in the range 15-50 ppb with a factor of 1.5 to 5 higher than the monthly mean. During two episodes, a well-formed surface wind channel stretches across the Tasman Sea facilitating the long range transport to New Zealand contributing to a 10% increase of surface O3. During the four episodes in January 2003, the observed AOD was up to a factor of five higher that the monthly mean AOD. The simulated and observed AODs agree on the spatial structure. Despite the model tendency to underestimate the AOD, it proves a useful tool in reconstructing the mostly patchy observations.

Survey of Army Weapons Training and Weapons Training Devices.

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-04-01

er li-68 (MANICON), May 1968. AD 671 128. Nichols, Thomas C. and Theodore R. Powers. oonlig)ht and Ni t Vi1- bilitv. Research Memorandum, HumRRO...Rpsources Laboratories, Brooks AFB, Texas, 1972. GENERAL Training th.vics (Cont’d) Fitzpatrick, Robert. Toiward a Theory of Simulation. System Develop- ment...Evaluation of the Tank, Combat, Full Tracked: 105mm Gun, M60. HumPRO Consulting Report, February 1961 (FIREPOWER VIII). AD 487 893. ’ hHunt , William T

Investigation of Brittle Fractures in Graphite-Epoxy Composites Subjected to Impact

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-05-01

Dspertlmew of the Army position unless so des •i•ated by othr authrized documents. Men Goverment drawings. epeOsftions. or other data we used for any...FRACTURE CHARACTERISTICS OF SOME FIBER-STRENGTHEN,1ED EPOXY RESIN SYSTEMS, E. 1. duPont de Nemours and Company, Incorporated, Wilmington, Delaware...Corporation Report TR-0172(SZ816-15)- 1, December 1971. 35 a LAYERS WITH Ela DIFFERENIT C (EACH LAYER ISOTROPIC) E la E lb t Elc E’ In Vila V lb ý VIC

A Project Officer’s Guide for Elementary Excellence-in-Competition Rifle and Pistol Matches

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-04-01

content by HQ AFMPC. Force pamphlet MAJUR VIC MARTIN Air Command and Staff College Class of 1984 iii ■: ,5 en For GFU&I TAB ;iicatlon_ G...profession o-f arms! In this age o-f computerized war-fare and electronic wizardry it seems that this is often over- looked. Technology has forced ...for individual combat is still the firearm - probably the type on which we qualified when we first came into the Air Force . In order to re-emphasize

Computer-based visual communication in aphasia.

PubMed

Steele, R D; Weinrich, M; Wertz, R T; Kleczewska, M K; Carlson, G S

1989-01-01

The authors describe their recently developed Computer-aided VIsual Communication (C-VIC) system, and report results of single-subject experimental designs probing its use with five chronic, severely impaired aphasic individuals. Studies replicate earlier results obtained with a non-computerized system, demonstrate patient competence with the computer implementation, extend the system's utility, and identify promising areas of application. Results of the single-subject experimental designs clarify patients' learning, generalization, and retention patterns, and highlight areas of performance difficulties. Future directions for the project are indicated.

Small computer interface to a stepper motor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berry, Fred A., Jr.

1986-01-01

A Commodore VIC-20 computer has been interfaced with a stepper motor to provide an inexpensive stepper motor controller. Only eight transistors and two integrated circuits compose the interface. The software controls the parallel interface of the computer and provides the four phase drive signals for the motor. Optical sensors control the zeroing of the 12-inch turntable positioned by the controller. The computer calculates the position information and movement of the table and may be programmed in BASIC to execute automatic sequences.

Strategic Implications of Moscow’s Concept for Collective Security in Asia

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-06-11

social liberation to this end . . . [Whereas] the Americans dream of an agreement between the two. The Soviet leaders declare a reconciliation to be...at a time when the balance of . . . forces in the world is* changing as a result of new major vic- tories on the part of world socialism and a...17 that a serious change had occurred in the relation of forces between the countries of socialism and capitalism in favor of the socialist nations

Making medical records professional(s).

PubMed

Mason, A

1987-07-01

In 1986 a joint medical records project group was set up by the Institute of Health Services Management, the Association of Health Care Information and Medical Records Officers and the NHS Training Authority, with Mr Vic Peel as chairman. The group was supported by Arthur Andersen & Co, management consultants. The following is a shortened and edited version of an interim report drafted for the group by Dr Alastair Mason. It is intended for discussion and does not yet represent the definitive views of the sponsoring bodies.

The Coast Artillery Journal. Volume 79, Number 6, November-December 1936

DTIC Science & Technology

1936-12-01

news from the enveloping right wing toward which all Schlieffen-trained staff officers looked for vic - tory. OHL-Kaiser, staff officers, civil and...many of its means of defense as possible. 1936 ~ _ PROVISIONS OF DIRECTIVE OF AUGUST 27 _- - THE EXECUTION SCALE o 5 10 20 3{) THE WILL OF THE LEADER...the Oise and that only weak rear guards were in front of his right. On the 29th he would attack the fortress of La Fere. This report could mean only one

Operational Hydrologic Forecasts in the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, K. Y.; Curry, J. A.; Webster, P. J.; Toma, V. E.; Jelinek, M.

2013-12-01

The Columbia River Basin (CRB) covers an area of ~670,000 km2 and stretches across parts of seven U.S. states and one Canadian province. The basin is subject to a variable climate, and moisture stored in snowpack during the winter is typically released in spring and early summer. These releases contribute to rapid increases in flow. A number of impoundments have been constructed on the Columbia River main stem and its tributaries for the purposes of flood control, navigation, irrigation, recreation, and hydropower. Storage reservoirs allow water managers to adjust natural flow patterns to benefit water and energy demands. In the past decade, the complexity of water resource management issues in the basin has amplified the importance of streamflow forecasting. Medium-range (1-10 day) numerical weather forecasts of precipitation and temperature can be used to drive hydrological models. In this work, probabilistic meteorological variables from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are used to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Soil textures were obtained from FAO data; vegetation types / land cover information from UMD land cover data; stream networks from USGS HYDRO1k; and elevations from CGIAR version 4 SRTM data. The surface energy balance in 0.25° (~25 km) cells is closed through an iterative process operating at a 6 hour timestep. Output fluxes from a number of cells in the basin are combined through one-dimensional flow routing predicated on assumptions of linearity and time invariance. These combinations lead to daily mean streamflow estimates at key locations throughout the basin. This framework is suitable for ingesting daily numerical weather prediction data, and was calibrated using USGS mean daily streamflow data at the Dalles Dam (TDA). Operational streamflow forecasts in the CRB have been active since October 2012. These are 'naturalized' or unregulated forecasts. In 2013, increases of ~2600 m3/s (~48% of average discharge for water years 1879-2012) or greater were observed at TDA during the following periods: 29 March to 12 April, 5 May to 11 May, and 19 June to 29 June. Precipitation and temperature forecasts during these periods are shown along with changes in the model simulated snowpack. We evaluate the performance of the ensemble mean 10 days in advance of each of these three events, and comment on how the distribution of ensemble members affected forecast confidence in each situation.

A recombinant fowl adenovirus expressing the S1 gene of infectious bronchitis virus protects against challenge with infectious bronchitis virus.

PubMed

Johnson, Michael A; Pooley, Catherine; Ignjatovic, Jagoda; Tyack, Scott G

2003-06-20

The spike peplomer S1 subunit sequence from avian infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) Vic S strain was expressed in a plasmid under the control of the fowl adenovirus (FAV) major late promoter (MLP). Two recombinants were constructed in FAV serotype 8 (FAV 8) by inserting the expression cassette between the SnaBI and XbaI restriction enzyme sites (clone DA3) or between the SpeI sites (clone CA6-20). Expression of the S1 gene in the recombinants was confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) by 20h post-infection. Commercial broiler chickens were orally vaccinated at day 0 or day 6 post-hatch and challenged at day 35 post-hatch. FAV antibody ELISA confirmed that maternal antibody directed against inclusion body hepatitis (serotype 8) had decayed in control birds and that FAV specific serum IgG responses were produced in vaccinated birds at the time of challenge. Further, an S1 specific antibody response was detected prior to challenge. Birds were challenged with either Vic S (serotype B) or N1/62 (serotype C) strains of IBV. The tracheas of challenged birds were analyzed by RT-PCR and re-isolation of virus. In birds vaccinated at day 6, 90-100% protection at the trachea was induced against either homologous or heterologous challenge. The construction of a recombinant FAV expressing S1 of IBV demonstrates the potential of an alternative vaccination strategy against IBV.

COX2 Inhibition Reduces Aortic Valve Calcification In Vivo

PubMed Central

Wirrig, Elaine E.; Gomez, M. Victoria; Hinton, Robert B.; Yutzey, Katherine E.

2016-01-01

Objective Calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, which affects approximately 1% of the US population and is characterized by calcific nodule formation and stenosis of the valve. Klotho-deficient mice were used to study the molecular mechanisms of CAVD as they develop robust aortic valve (AoV) calcification. Through microarray analysis of AoV tissues from klotho-deficient and wild type mice, increased expression of the gene encoding cyclooxygenase 2/COX2 (Ptgs2) was found. COX2 activity contributes to bone differentiation and homeostasis, thus the contribution of COX2 activity to AoV calcification was assessed. Approach and Results In klotho-deficient mice, COX2 expression is increased throughout regions of valve calcification and is induced in the valvular interstitial cells (VICs) prior to calcification formation. Similarly, COX2 expression is increased in human diseased AoVs. Treatment of cultured porcine aortic VICs with osteogenic media induces bone marker gene expression and calcification in vitro, which is blocked by inhibition of COX2 activity. In vivo, genetic loss of function of COX2 cyclooxygenase activity partially rescues AoV calcification in klotho-deficient mice. Moreover, pharmacologic inhibition of COX2 activity in klotho-deficient mice via celecoxib-containing diet reduces AoV calcification and blocks osteogenic gene expression. Conclusions COX2 expression is upregulated in CAVD and its activity contributes to osteogenic gene induction and valve calcification in vitro and in vivo. PMID:25722432

The 9th International Veterinary Immunology Symposium.

PubMed

Lunney, Joan K; Kai, Chieko; Inumaru, Shigeki; Onodera, Takashi

2012-07-15

This special issue of Veterinary Immunology and Immunopathology summarizes the Proceedings of the 9th International Veterinary Immunology Symposium (9th IVIS) held August 2010, in Tokyo, Japan. Over 340 delegates from 30 countries discussed research progress analyzing the immune systems of numerous food animals and wildlife, probing basic immunity and the influence of stress, genetics, nutrition, endocrinology and reproduction. Major presentations addressed defense against pathogens and alternative control and prevention strategies including vaccines, adjuvants and novel biotherapeutics. A special Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Co-operative Research Programme Sponsored Conference on "Vaccination and Diagnosis for Food Safety in Agriculture" highlighted the particular issue of "Immunology in Bovine Paratuberculosis". In April 2010 there was an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the southern part of Japan. This stimulated a special 9th IVIS session on FMD, sponsored by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) of Japan, to discuss improvements of FMD vaccines, their use in FMD control, and risk assessment for decision management. The 9th IVIS was supported by the Veterinary Immunology Committee (VIC) of the International Union of Immunological Societies (IUIS) and included workshops for its MHC and Toolkit Committees. Finally VIC IUIS presented its 2010 Distinguished Service Award to Dr. Kazuya Yamanouchi for "outstanding contributions to the veterinary immunology community" and its 2010 Distinguished Veterinary Immunologist Award to Dr. Douglas F. Antczak for "outstanding research on equine immunology". Published by Elsevier B.V.

Molecular sled sequences are common in mammalian proteins.

PubMed

Xiong, Kan; Blainey, Paul C

2016-03-18

Recent work revealed a new class of molecular machines called molecular sleds, which are small basic molecules that bind and slide along DNA with the ability to carry cargo along DNA. Here, we performed biochemical and single-molecule flow stretching assays to investigate the basis of sliding activity in molecular sleds. In particular, we identified the functional core of pVIc, the first molecular sled characterized; peptide functional groups that control sliding activity; and propose a model for the sliding activity of molecular sleds. We also observed widespread DNA binding and sliding activity among basic polypeptide sequences that implicate mammalian nuclear localization sequences and many cell penetrating peptides as molecular sleds. These basic protein motifs exhibit weak but physiologically relevant sequence-nonspecific DNA affinity. Our findings indicate that many mammalian proteins contain molecular sled sequences and suggest the possibility that substantial undiscovered sliding activity exists among nuclear mammalian proteins. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Contribution of Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies to the Ongoing California Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, L.; Apps, D.; Arcand, S. E.

2015-12-01

The ongoing multiyear drought over California is a major concern for the residents of the golden state as it brings water restrictions in preparing for water shortages and wild fires due to dry and hot conditions. Both positive temperature and negative precipitation anomalies can contribute to drought developments, but how important are these anomalies for the ongoing California drought? Using the VIC hydrological model, this study investigated the relative contribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies to the ongoing 2011-2015 drought in comparison with another multiyear drought between 1987 and 1992 over the same region. By swapping the observed temperature and precipitation anomalies between two drought events, the study was able to show how temperature and precipitation anomalies and their spatial variability affect other elements of the hydrological cycle including evapotranspiration, soil moisture and streamflow, thus the severity of the drought. The comparison between these two events helps to reveal the unique characteristics of the current drought and provides useful insights for drought prediction and mitigation.

Global modelling of Cryptosporidium in surface water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermeulen, Lucie; Hofstra, Nynke

2016-04-01

Introduction Waterborne pathogens that cause diarrhoea, such as Cryptosporidium, pose a health risk all over the world. In many regions quantitative information on pathogens in surface water is unavailable. Our main objective is to model Cryptosporidium concentrations in surface waters worldwide. We present the GloWPa-Crypto model and use the model in a scenario analysis. A first exploration of global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface waters has been published by Hofstra et al. (2013). Further work has focused on modelling emissions of Cryptosporidium and Rotavirus to surface waters from human sources (Vermeulen et al 2015, Kiulia et al 2015). A global waterborne pathogen model can provide valuable insights by (1) providing quantitative information on pathogen levels in data-sparse regions, (2) identifying pathogen hotspots, (3) enabling future projections under global change scenarios and (4) supporting decision making. Material and Methods GloWPa-Crypto runs on a monthly time step and represents conditions for approximately the year 2010. The spatial resolution is a 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude x longitude grid for the world. We use livestock maps (http://livestock.geo-wiki.org/) combined with literature estimates to calculate spatially explicit livestock Cryptosporidium emissions. For human Cryptosporidium emissions, we use UN population estimates, the WHO/UNICEF JMP sanitation country data and literature estimates of wastewater treatment. We combine our emissions model with a river routing model and data from the VIC hydrological model (http://vic.readthedocs.org/en/master/) to calculate concentrations in surface water. Cryptosporidium survival during transport depends on UV radiation and water temperature. We explore pathogen emissions and concentrations in 2050 with the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 1 and 3. These scenarios describe plausible future trends in demographics, economic development and the degree of global integration. Results and Conclusions GloWPa-Crypto is the first global model that can be used to analyse dynamics in surface water pathogen concentrations worldwide. Global human Cryptosporidium emissions are estimated at 1 x 10^17 oocysts/ year for the year 2010.We estimated future emissions for SSP1 and SSP3. Preliminary results show that for SSP1human emissions are approximately halved by 2050. The SSP3 human emissions are 1.5 times higher than the 2010 emissions due to increased population growth and urbanisation. Livestock Cryptosporidium emissions are expected to increase under both SSP1 and SSP3, as meat consumption continues to rise. We conclude that population growth, urbanization, changes in sanitation systems and treatment, and changes in livestock consumption and production systems are important processes that determine future Cryptosporidium emissions to surface water. References Hofstra N, Bouwman A F, Beusen A H W and Medema G J 2013 Exploring global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface water Sci. Total Environ. 442 10-9 Kiulia N M, Hofstra N, Vermeulen L C, Obara M A, Medema G J and Rose J B 2015 Global occurrence and emission of rotaviruses to surface waters Pathogens 4 229-55 Vermeulen L C, De Kraker J, Hofstra N, Kroeze C and Medema G J 2015 Modelling the impact of sanitation, population and urbanization estimates on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters - a case study for Bangladesh and India Environ. Res. Lett. 10

Calibration of Breech Erosion Gage for 5.56mm Chrome-Plated Bores

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-12-01

34 tft.. CantoiIlate Olft.) Ill TEUIy CLASS. (of ffile .oepot) Unclassified ISO . DECL ASSi VIC ATION’DOW94GRADING 16. DISTRIOUTION STATEMENT (of Wit9...6.3 8.9 13.4 7.6 7.3 6.3 6.2 7.1 26000 16.1 9.1 10.9 13.9 8.9 6.4 6.3 3.1 4.9 27000 12.4 8.4 11.2 13.1 8.3 6.5 7.3 3.4 4.3 28000 12.1 6.9 19.3 11.4

Hickam AFB, Hawaii Revised Uniform Summary of Surface Weather Observations (RUSSWO). Parts A-F.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-04-01

ZkAN~,I EATV A. TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY -- EAT’E~SE; VIC /MAL I.I 2n 4CK A A F H---- 74-337 STATION STATION NAME PERIOD CUMULATIVE PERCENTAGE FREQUENCY...AL 1 li 9 o G l O 1 0 . 1; 99 .9 7 92 -6 71.2 4 1’_.1 l S 1 67 . 72 2- ] USAFETAC F 0.87-5 (OL A) ....... -LCAIAL CL!’"ATCL3Y -sRANCM EATV - c L r TAC

Macro-carriers of plastic deformation of steel surface layers detected by digital image correlation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kopanitsa, D. G., E-mail: kopanitsa@mail.ru; Ustinov, A. M., E-mail: artemustinov@mail.ru; Potekaev, A. I., E-mail: potekaev@spti.tsu.ru

2016-01-15

This paper presents a study of characteristics of an evolution of deformation fields in surface layers of medium-carbon low-alloy specimens under compression. The experiments were performed on the “Universal Testing Machine 4500” using a digital stereoscopic image processing system Vic-3D. A transition between stages is reflected as deformation redistribution on the near-surface layers. Electronic microscopy shows that the structure of the steel is a mixture of pearlite and ferrite grains. A proportion of pearlite is 40% and ferrite is 60%.

Seasonal scale water deficit forecasting in Africa and the Middle East using NASA's Land Information System (LIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, Shraddhanand; Arsenault, Kristi R.; Getirana, Augusto; Kumar, Sujay V.; Roningen, Jeanne; Zaitchik, Ben; McNally, Amy; Koster, Randal D.; Peters-Lidard, Christa

2017-04-01

Drought and water scarcity are among the important issues facing several regions within Africa and the Middle East. A seamless and effective monitoring and early warning system is needed by regional/national stakeholders. Such system should support a proactive drought management approach and mitigate the socio-economic losses up to the extent possible. In this presentation, we report on the ongoing development and validation of a seasonal scale water deficit forecasting system based on NASA's Land Information System (LIS) and seasonal climate forecasts. First, our presentation will focus on the implementation and validation of the LIS models used for drought and water availability monitoring in the region. The second part will focus on evaluating drought and water availability forecasts. Finally, details will be provided of our ongoing collaboration with end-user partners in the region (e.g., USAID's Famine Early Warning Systems Network, FEWS NET), on formulating meaningful early warning indicators, effective communication and seamless dissemination of the monitoring and forecasting products through NASA's web-services. The water deficit forecasting system thus far incorporates NOAA's Noah land surface model (LSM), version 3.3, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, version 4.12, NASA GMAO's Catchment LSM, and the Noah Multi-Physics (MP) LSM (the latter two incorporate prognostic water table schemes). In addition, the LSMs' surface and subsurface runoff are routed through the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) to simulate surface water dynamics. The LSMs are driven by NASA/GMAO's Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and the USGS and UCSB Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) daily rainfall dataset. The LIS software framework integrates these forcing datasets and drives the four LSMs and HyMAP. The Land Verification Toolkit (LVT) is used for the evaluation of the LSMs, as it provides model ensemble metrics and the ability to compare against a variety of remotely sensed measurements, like different evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture products, and other reanalysis datasets that are available for this region. Comparison of the models' energy and hydrological budgets will be shown for this region (and sub-basin level, e.g., Blue Nile River) and time period (1981-2015), along with evaluating ET, streamflow, groundwater storage and soil moisture, using evaluation metrics (e.g., anomaly correlation, RMSE, etc.). The system uses seasonal climate forecasts from NASA's GMAO (the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5) and NCEP's Climate Forecast System, version 2, and it produces forecasts of soil moisture, ET and streamflow out to 6 months in the future. Forecasts of those variables are formulated in terms of indicators to provide forecasts of drought and water availability in the region.

Limonene inhibits streptococcal biofilm formation by targeting surface-associated virulence factors.

PubMed

Subramenium, Ganapathy Ashwinkumar; Vijayakumar, Karuppiah; Pandian, Shunmugiah Karutha

2015-08-01

The present study explores the efficacy of limonene, a cyclic terpene found in the rind of citrus fruits, for antibiofilm potential against species of the genus Streptococcus, which have been deeply studied worldwide owing to their multiple pathogenic efficacy. Limonene showed a concentration-dependent reduction in the biofilm formation of Streptococcus pyogenes (SF370), with minimal biofilm inhibitory concentration (MBIC) of 400 μg ml - 1. Limonene was found to possess about 75-95 % antibiofilm activity against all the pathogens tested, viz. Streptococcus pyogenes (SF370 and 5 clinical isolates), Streptococcus mutans (UA159) and Streptococcus mitis (ATCC 6249) at 400 μg ml - 1 concentration. Microscopic analysis of biofilm architecture revealed a quantitative breach in biofilm formation. Results of a surface-coating assay suggested that the possible mode of action of limonene could be by inhibiting bacterial adhesion to surfaces, thereby preventing the biofilm formation cascade. Susceptibility of limonene-treated Streptococcus pyogenes to healthy human blood goes in unison with gene expression studies in which the mga gene was found to be downregulated. Anti-cariogenic efficacy of limonene against Streptococcus mutans was confirmed, with inhibition of acid production and downregulation of the vicR gene. Downregulation of the covR, mga and vicR genes, which play a critical role in regulating surface-associated proteins in Streptococcus pyogenes and Streptococcus mutans, respectively, is yet further evidence to show that limonene targets surface-associated proteins. The results of physiological assays and gene expression studies clearly show that the surface-associated antagonistic mechanism of limonene also reduces surface-mediated virulence factors.

Effect of high-fructose corn syrup on Streptococcus mutans virulence gene expression and on tooth demineralization.

PubMed

Sun, Minmin; Kang, Qiongyi; Li, Tingting; Huang, Lili; Jiang, Yuntao; Xia, Wenwei

2014-06-01

High-fructose corn syrup-55 (HFCS-55) has been widely welcomed in recent years as a substitute for sucrose on the basis of its favourable properties and price. The objective of this study was to determine the influence of HFCS-55 on the expression of Streptococcus mutans UA159 virulence genes and on tooth demineralization. Real-time reverse-transcription PCR (real-time RT-PCR) and microhardness evaluations were performed to examine gene expression and enamel demineralization, respectively, after treatment with HFCS-55 and/or sucrose. Significant up-regulation of glucosyltransferase B (gtfB) by HFCS-55 was found. A mixture of HFCS-55 and sucrose could positively enhance expression of glucan-binding protein (gbp) genes. Regarding acidogenicity, expression of the lactate dehydrogenase (ldh) gene was unaffected by HFCS-55. A notable finding in this study was that 5% HFCS-55 significantly enhanced expression of the intracellular response gene of the two-component VicRK signal transduction system (vicR). Demineralization testing showed that the microhardness of teeth decreased by a greater extent in response to HFCS-55 than in response to sucrose. The results indicate that HFCS-55 can enhance S. mutans biofilm formation indirectly in the presence of sucrose and that HFCS-55 has a more acidogenic potential than does sucrose. Summing up the real-time PCR and demineralization results, HFCS-55 appears to be no less cariogenic than sucrose in vitro - at least, not under the conditions of our experiments. © 2014 Eur J Oral Sci.

Sucrose substitutes affect the cariogenic potential of Streptococcus mutans biofilms.

PubMed

Durso, S C; Vieira, L M; Cruz, J N S; Azevedo, C S; Rodrigues, P H; Simionato, M R L

2014-01-01

Streptococcus mutans is considered the primary etiologic agent of dental caries and contributes significantly to the virulence of dental plaque, especially in the presence of sucrose. To avoid the role of sucrose on the virulence factors of S. mutans, sugar substitutes are commonly consumed because they lead to lower or no production of acids and interfere with biofilm formation. This study aimed to investigate the contribution of sugar substitutes in the cariogenic potential of S. mutans biofilms. Thus, in the presence of sucrose, glucose, sucralose and sorbitol, the biofilm mass was quantified up to 96 h, the pH of the spent culture media was measured, the expression of biofilm-related genes was determined, and demineralization challenge experiments were conduct in enamel fragments. The presence of sugars or sugar substitutes profoundly affected the expression of spaP, gtfB, gtfC, gbpB, ftf, vicR and vicX in either biofilm or planktonic cells. The substitution of sucrose induced a down-regulation of most genes involved in sucrose-dependent colonization in biofilm cells. When the ratio between the expression of biofilm and planktonic cells was considered, most of those genes were down-regulated in biofilm cells in the presence of sugars and up-regulated in the presence of sugar substitutes. However, sucralose but not sorbitol fulfilled the purpose of reducing the cariogenic potential of the diet since it induced the biofilm formation with the lowest biomass, did not change the pH of the medium and led to the lowest lesion depth in the cariogenic challenge.

Hydrologic impacts of climate and land use changes over the Three-North region of China: implication for the forestation programs in arid and semiarid regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, X.; Liang, S.

2013-12-01

The Three-North region of China, including the northeastern, northern, and northwestern areas, covers an area of more than three million square kilometers. This region is featured for its arid and semiarid environments with annual rainfall less than 450 mm. During the past few decades, the Three-North region has experienced noticeable water-cycle variations owing to the climate and land use changes. Typically, several large-scale forestation programs such as the Three Norths Forest Shelterbelt Program began since late 1970s, have been implemented across this region in order to solve desertification and dust storm problems, and to combat the loss of water and soil. These programs raised debates, however, because their effectiveness does not likely achieve what was expected and they even imposed negative influences on the eco-hydrologic system in some areas. Currently most studies were based on in-situ measurements and individual catchments and primarily attributed the water-cycle variations to the forestation. In this study we attempt to evaluate the impact of combined climate and land use changes using remote sensing data and a sophisticated land surface model, i.e., the Three-Layer Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC-3L). Four land use maps derived from Landsat TM images for 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005 were used to detect the land use changes in the three-north regions, and leaf area index (LAI) from the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) LAI product was employed to assess the land cover change and the effect of forestation programs. After model calibration and validation based on gauged streamflow and evapotranspiration from China FluxNet, a series of simulation scenarios were designed to examine the impacts of climate and land use changes on soil moisture, runoff and evapotranspiration and to identify each contribution to water fluxes. It was found that within the study area as a whole, LAI shows an increasing trend during 1980-2009 in response to the forestation programs. However, the hydrologic variables (i.e., the soil moisture, runoff and evapotranspiration) in northern and northwestern regions are more significantly affected by the precipitation and temperature than by the land use changes, although the impacts of land use change are uneven across the entire region. So, the forestation probably plays a modest role in the hydrologic system.

Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data

PubMed Central

Scanlon, Bridget R.; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Wiese, David N.; Reedy, Robert C.; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2018-01-01

Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002–2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤−0.5 km3/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (−71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km3/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. PMID:29358394

Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data.

PubMed

Scanlon, Bridget R; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y; Müller Schmied, Hannes; van Beek, Ludovicus P H; Wiese, David N; Wada, Yoshihide; Long, Di; Reedy, Robert C; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F P

2018-02-06

Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤-0.5 km 3 /y) and increasing (≥0.5 km 3 /y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km 3 /y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (-71 to 11 km 3 /y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71-82 km 3 /y) but negative for models (-450 to -12 km 3 /y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Multiplex-Ready Technology for mid-throughput genotyping of molecular markers.

PubMed

Bonneau, Julien; Hayden, Matthew

2014-01-01

Screening molecular markers across large populations in breeding programs is generally time consuming and expensive. The Multiplex-Ready Technology (MRT) (Hayden et al., BMC genomics 9:80, 2008) was created to optimize polymorphism screening and genotyping using standardized PCR reaction conditions. The flexibility of this method maximizes the number of markers (up to 24 markers SSR or SNP, ideally small PCR product <500 bp and highly polymorphic) by using fluorescent dye (VIC, FAM, NED, and PET) and a semiautomated DNA fragment analyzer (ABI3730) capillary electrophoresis for large numbers of DNA samples (96 or 384 samples).

An Investigation of Cholinergic Circuitry in Cat Striate Cortex Using Acetylcholinesterase Histochemistry.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-10-10

OF REPORT 6 PERIOD COEREC All !lVL-tiVc"lt in) 0! I ntt rcu t r, ill Cat Technical Report 00 !ti t ( lt: . ,h , -in c , I lcho l n t e ra ,- ( H iSto...8217 Report) I0 SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 19 K EY WORDS (Continue on reveree old* it n~coeeary and Identify by block number) Ac Ltv VIc C11 i e Visual Cortex...Basal Forebrain 20. ADSTRPACT (Continue an revere. eld* it necessary and identl fy by block number) Iicor’anization of cholinergic inputs to cat striate

[book review] Systematics and Taxonomy of Australian Birds -- Les Christidis and Walter E. Boles. Collingwood, VIC, Australia: CSIRO Publishing, 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chesser, R. Terry

2009-01-01

Systematists argue that the importance of our work lies not only in the elucidation of evolutionary relationships, but also in the incorporation of evolutionary information into classifications and the use of these classifications by government agencies, nongovernmental organizations, professional scientists, and others interested in biodiversity. If this is true, and I think that it is, then synthetic publications that make our findings accessible to a wide audience, such as Christidis and Boles' new Systematics and Taxonomy of Australian Birds, may be among the most significant works that we publish.

Word Frequency Analysis. MOS: 16P. Skill Levels 1 & 2.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-05-01

8217 ALSC1 ALP ESECATE I API’LYI A-129 I AjI ~ AS-L-%/VIC I ATTAIN I1As~L2r v L% WORO FAeQUIEN#rM r Tf~16O RIATE 80142 131? PACE 3 I AV-@ ____ I...ENOJ 21..i~u. 191.4PME 21MAV UOi.~lO51’.iNEe;W~1CA2SP1tF4i H4PiI**IAPI C, 4DS-I*~4A5-II..... ROJOS 1.....9 PM4 21 MY §So.OOH 512 CH.PN~𔄁..IAR

Utilisation of ART in single women and lesbian couples since the 2010 change in Victorian legislation.

PubMed

Fiske, Emily; Weston, Gareth

2014-10-01

Enactment of the Assisted Reproductive Treatment Act (Vic) 2008 in January 2010 allowed single persons and same sex couples in Victoria to access reproductive treatments. A retrospective cohort analysis of Monash IVF patients was conducted to identify trends in Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) use amongst single women and lesbian couples after January 2010. A 102.8% increase in the utilisation of ART was observed amongst the single women group and a 248.8% increase in the lesbian couple population. © 2014 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Selective Extraction and Purification of Azaspiracids from Blue Mussels ( Mytilus edulis) Using Boric Acid Gel.

PubMed

Miles, Christopher O; Kilcoyne, Jane; McCarron, Pearse; Giddings, Sabrina D; Waaler, Thor; Rundberget, Thomas; Samdal, Ingunn A; Løvberg, Kjersti E

2018-03-21

Azaspiracids belong to a family of more than 50 polyether toxins originating from marine dinoflagellates such as Azadinium spinosum. All of the azaspiracids reported thus far contain a 21,22-dihydroxy group. Boric acid gel can bind selectively to compounds containing vic-diols or α-hydroxycarboxylic acids via formation of reversible boronate complexes. Here we report use of the gel to selectively capture and release azaspiracids from extracts of blue mussels. Analysis of the extracts and fractions by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS) showed that this procedure resulted in an excellent cleanup of the azaspiracids in the extract. Analysis by enzyme-linked immunoasorbent assay (ELISA) and LC-MS indicated that most azaspiracid analogues were recovered in good yield by this procedure. The capacity of boric acid gel for azaspiracids was at least 50 μg/g, making this procedure suitable for use in the early stages of preparative purification of azaspiracids. In addition to its potential for concentration of dilute samples, the extensive cleanup provided by boric acid gel fractionation of azaspiracids in mussel samples almost eliminated matrix effects during subsequent LC-MS and could be expected to reduce matrix effects during ELISA analysis. The method may therefore prove useful for quantitative analysis of azaspiracids as part of monitoring programs. Although LC-MS data showed that okadaic acid analogues also bound to the gel, this was much less efficient than for azaspiracids under the conditions used. The boric acid gel methodology is potentially applicable to other important groups of natural toxins containing diols including ciguatoxins, palytoxins, pectenotoxins, tetrodotoxin, trichothecenes, and toxin glycosides.

Inhibitory Effects of Chrysanthemum boreale Essential Oil on Biofilm Formation and Virulence Factor Expression of Streptococcus mutans

PubMed Central

Kim, Beom-Su; Park, Sun-Ju; Kim, Myung-Kon; Kim, Young-Hoi; Lee, Sang-Bong; Lee, Kwang-Hee; Lee, Young-Rae; Lee, Young-Eun; You, Yong-Ouk

2015-01-01

The aim of the study was to evaluate the antibacterial activity of essential oil extracted from Chrysanthemum boreale (C. boreale) on Streptococcus mutans (S. mutans). To investigate anticariogenic properties, and bacterial growth, acid production, biofilm formation, bacterial adherence of S. mutans were evaluated. Then gene expression of several virulence factors was also evaluated. C. boreale essential oil exhibited significant inhibition of bacterial growth, adherence capacity, and acid production of S. mutans at concentrations 0.1–0.5 mg/mL and 0.25–0.5 mg/mL, respectively. The safranin staining and scanning electron microscopy results showed that the biofilm formation was also inhibited. The result of live/dead staining showed the bactericidal effect. Furthermore, real-time PCR analysis showed that the gene expression of some virulence factors such as gtfB, gtfC, gtfD, gbpB, spaP, brpA, relA, and vicR of S. mutans was significantly decreased in a dose dependent manner. In GC and GC-MS analysis, seventy-two compounds were identified in the oil, representing 85.42% of the total oil. The major components were camphor (20.89%), β-caryophyllene (5.71%), α-thujone (5.46%), piperitone (5.27%), epi-sesquiphellandrene (5.16%), α-pinene (4.97%), 1,8-cineole (4.52%), β-pinene (4.45%), and camphene (4.19%). These results suggest that C. boreale essential oil may inhibit growth, adhesion, acid tolerance, and biofilm formation of S. mutans through the partial inhibition of several of these virulence factors. PMID:25763094

Estimating the global terrestrial hydrologic cycle through modeling, remote sensing, and data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Ming; Troy, Tara; Sahoo, Alok; Sheffield, Justin; Wood, Eric

2010-05-01

Documentation of the water cycle and its evolution over time is a primary scientific goal of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and fundamental to assessing global change impacts. In developed countries, observation systems that include in-situ, remote sensing and modeled data can provide long-term, consistent and generally high quality datasets of water cycle variables. The export of these technologies to less developed regions has been rare, but it is these regions where information on water availability and change is probably most needed in the face of regional environmental change due to climate, land use and water management. In these data sparse regions, in situ data alone are insufficient to develop a comprehensive picture of how the water cycle is changing, and strategies that merge in-situ, model and satellite observations within a framework that results in consistent water cycle records is essential. Such an approach is envisaged by the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GOESS), but has yet to be applied. The goal of this study is to quantify the variation and changes in the global water cycle over the past 50 years. We evaluate the global water cycle using a variety of independent large-scale datasets of hydrologic variables that are used to bridge the gap between sparse in-situ observations, including remote-sensing based retrievals, observation-forced hydrologic modeling, and weather model reanalyses. A data assimilation framework that blends these disparate sources of information together in a consistent fashion with attention to budget closure is applied to make best estimates of the global water cycle and its variation. The framework consists of a constrained Kalman filter applied to the water budget equation. With imperfect estimates of the water budget components, the equation additionally has an error residual term that is redistributed across the budget components using error statistics, which are estimated from the uncertainties among data products. The constrained Kalman filter treats the budget closure constraint as a perfect observation within the assimilation framework. Precipitation is estimated using gauge observations, reanalysis products, and remote sensing products for below 50°N. Evapotranspiration is estimated in a number of ways: from the VIC land surface hydrologic model forced with a hybrid reanalysis-observation global forcing dataset, from remote sensing retrievals based on a suite of energy balance and process based models, and from an atmospheric water budget approach using reanalysis products for the atmospheric convergence and storage terms and our best estimate for precipitation. Terrestrial water storage changes, including surface and subsurface changes, are estimated using estimates from both VIC and the GRACE remote sensing retrievals. From these components, discharge can then be calculated as a residual of the water budget and compared with gauge observations to evaluate the closure of the water budget. Through the use of these largely independent data products, we estimate both the mean seasonal cycle of the water budget components and their uncertainties for a set of 20 large river basins across the globe. We particularly focus on three regions of interest in global changes studies: the Northern Eurasian region which is experiencing rapid change in terrestrial processes; the Amazon which is a central part of the global water, energy and carbon budgets; and Africa, which is predicted to face some of the most critical challenges for water and food security in the coming decades.

Evaluation of the North American Land Data Assimilation System over the Southern Great Plains during the warm season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, A.; Luo, L.; Wood, E. F.; Wen, F.; Mitchell, K. E.; Houser, P. R.; Schaake, J. C.; Nldas Team

2003-04-01

To conduct land data assimilation, validated land surface models are needed. The first step in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) is to evaluate four such state-of-the-art models. These models (VIC, Noah, Mosaic, and Sacramento) have been run for a retrospective period forced by atmospheric observations from the Eta analysis and actual precipitation and downward solar radiation (on a 1/8 degree North American grid) to calculate land hydrology. First we show that the forcing data set agrees very well with local observations and that simulations forced with local observations differ little from those forced with the NLDAS forcing data set. Then we evaluated the simulations using in situ observations over the Southern Great Plains for the periods of May-September of 1998 and 1999 by comparing the model outputs with surface latent, sensible, and ground heat fluxes at 24 Atmospheric Radiation Measurement/Cloud and Radiation Testbed stations and with soil temperature and soil moisture observations at 72 Oklahoma Mesonet stations. The standard NLDAS models do a fairly good job but with differences in the surface energy partition and in soil moisture between models and observations and among models during the summer, while they agree quite well on the soil temperature simulations. To investigate why, we performed a series of experiments accounting for differences between model-specified soil types and vegetation and those observed at the stations, and differences in model treatment of different soil types, vegetation properties, canopy resistance, soil column depth, rooting depth, root density, snow-free albedo, infiltration, aerodynamic resistance, and soil thermal diffusivity. The diagnosis and model enhancements demonstrate how the models can be improved so that they can be used in actual data assimilation mode.

Feed Safe: a multidisciplinary partnership approach results in a successful mobile application for breastfeeding mothers.

PubMed

White, Becky; White, James; Giglia, Roslyn; Tawia, Susan

2016-05-30

Issue addressed: Mobile applications are increasingly being used in health promotion initiatives. Although there is evidence that developing these mobile health applications in multidisciplinary teams is good practice, there is a gap in the literature with respect to evaluation of the process of this partnership model and how best to disseminate the application into the community. The aim of this paper is twofold, to describe the partnership model in which the Feed Safe application was developed and to investigate what worked in terms of dissemination. Methods: The process of working in partnership was measured using the VicHealth partnership analysis tool for health promotion. The dissemination strategy and reach of the application was measured using both automated analytics data and estimates of community-initiated promotion. Results: The combined average score from the partnership analysis tool was 138 out of a possible 175. A multipronged dissemination strategy led to good uptake of the application among Australian women. Conclusions: Multidisciplinary partnership models are important in the development of health promotion mobile applications. Recognising and utilising the skills of each partner organisation can help expand the reach of mobile health applications into the Australian population and aid in good uptake of health promotion resources. So what?: Developing mobile applications in multidisciplinary partnerships is good practice and can lead to wide community uptake of the health promotion resource.

Application of Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System to enhance drought monitoring and forecasting in Lower Mekong region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayasinghe, S.; Dutta, R.; Basnayake, S. B.; Granger, S. L.; Andreadis, K. M.; Das, N.; Markert, K. N.; Cutter, P. G.; Towashiraporn, P.; Anderson, E.

2017-12-01

The Lower Mekong Region has been experiencing frequent and prolonged droughts resulting in severe damage to agricultural production leading to food insecurity and impacts on livelihoods of the farming communities. Climate variability further complicates the situation by making drought harder to forecast. The Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System (RDCYIS), developed by SERVIR-Mekong, helps decision makers to take effective measures through monitoring, analyzing and forecasting of drought conditions and providing early warnings to farmers to make adjustments to cropping calendars. The RDCYIS is built on regionally calibrated Regional Hydrologic Extreme Assessment System (RHEAS) framework that integrates the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) models, allowing both nowcast and forecast of drought. The RHEAS allows ingestion of numerus freely available earth observation and ground observation data to generate and customize drought related indices, variables and crop yield information for better decision making. The Lower Mekong region has experienced severe drought in 2016 encompassing the region's worst drought in 90 years. This paper presents the simulation of the 2016 drought event using RDCYIS based on its hindcast and forecast capabilities. The regionally calibrated RDCYIS can help capture salient features of drought through a variety of drought indices, soil variables, energy balance variables and water balance variables. The RDCYIS is capable of assimilating soil moisture data from different satellite products and perform ensemble runs to further reduce the uncertainty of it outputs. The calibrated results have correlation coefficient around 0.73 and NSE between 0.4-0.5. Based on the acceptable results of the retrospective runs, the system has the potential to generate reliable drought monitoring and forecasting information to improve decision-makings at operational, technological and institutional level of mandated institutes of lower Mekong countries. This is turn would help countries to prepare for and respond to drought situations by taking short and long-term risk mitigation measures such as adjusting cropping calendars, rainwater harvesting, and so on.

Promoting equity in the mental wellbeing of children and young people: a scoping review.

PubMed

Welsh, Jennifer; Strazdins, Lyndall; Ford, Laura; Friel, Sharon; O'Rourke, Kerryn; Carbone, Stephen; Carlon, Leanne

2015-09-01

There is increasing emphasis on wellbeing as a target for mental health promotion, especially during the formative period of childhood. Despite growing research on the importance of mental wellbeing, there is little information on how to effectively promote it or how to promote it equitably. This article presents a scoping review of interventions which seek to promote mental wellbeing and reduce inequities in children and young people living in high income countries. We used Fair Foundations: The VicHealth framework for health equity (VicHealth (2013) Melbourne, Australia: The Victorian Health Promotion Foundation) to identify points of entry at three layers of influence: (i) socioeconomic, cultural and political contexts, (ii) daily living conditions, and (iii) individual and family health-related factors. We identified more than 1000 interventions which aimed to prevent or treat childhood mental illness, but there were far fewer that aimed to promote children's or young people's mental wellbeing. The interventions we studied were either universal or specifically targeted children from disadvantaged families: none explicitly used an equity framework to guide their design or evaluation or addressed social gradients in wellbeing. Most interventions remained focused on proximate factors, although we also identified a handful of interventions that sought to address children's access to services and their educational and neighbourhood environments. However, we found encouraging evidence that interventions in family and educational settings were successful in building children's strengths and supporting positive parenting, universally and within disadvantaged groups. Such positive programme evaluations signal the potential for using a proportionate universalism approach that emphasizes equity in the promotion of mental wellbeing. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Sustained complete remission of a limited-stage blastic plasmacytoid dendritic cell neoplasm followed by a simultaneous combination of low-dose DeVIC therapy and radiation therapy: a case report and review of the literature.

PubMed

Sugimoto, Kei-Ji; Shimada, Asami; Yamaguchi, Nanae; Imai, Hidenori; Wakabayashi, Mutsumi; Sekiguchi, Yasunobu; Izumi, Hiroshi; Ota, Yasunori; Komatsu, Norio; Noguchi, Masaaki

2013-01-01

The patient was a 74-year-old man who was found to have a cutaneous mass on his left shoulder in February 2012. Because the mass bled easily and was tending to grow, total resection of the cutaneous tumor, which measured approximately 5 cm x 3 cm, was performed in July. Histopathological examination revealed a tumor that extended from the dermis to the cutaneous adipose tissue, but no invasion of the epidermis was seen. The tumor cells were plasmacytoid cells ranging in size from small to intermediate, and there was no nuclear irregularity. They had a high nuclear-cytoplasmic ratio, and nucleoli were observed. The tumor cells were CD4-positive, CD56-positive, and CD123-positive, and they were AE1/AE3-negative, CD3-negative, CD20-negative, and myeloperoxidase-negative. (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography-computed tomography (FDG-PET/CT), a bone marrow examination, etc., were performed, but no lesions were detected at other sites. Based on the above findings a diagnosis of blastic plasmacytoid dendritic cell neoplasm (BPDCN), Stage IEA, was made. Because the patient had limited-stage BPDCN and was elderly, we treated him with a simultaneous combination of low-dose DeVIC (dexamethasone, VP16, ifosfamide, and carboplatin) therapy and local radiation therapy (LRT) and sustained a complete remission for approximately 1 year. Simultaneous combination of non-CHOP (cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone) chemotherapy and LRT appeared to be useful in the treatment of limited-stage BPDCN even in the elderly.

Health literacy, numeracy, and other characteristics associated with hospitalized patients' preferences for involvement in decision making.

PubMed

Goggins, Kathryn M; Wallston, Kenneth A; Nwosu, Samuel; Schildcrout, Jonathan S; Castel, Liana; Kripalani, Sunil

2014-01-01

Little research has examined the association of health literacy and numeracy with patients' preferred involvement in the problem-solving and decision-making process in the hospital. Using a sample of 1,249 patients hospitalized with cardiovascular disease from the Vanderbilt Inpatient Cohort Study (VICS), we assessed patients' preferred level of involvement using responses to two scenarios of differing symptom severity from the Problem-Solving Decision-Making Scale. Using multivariable modeling, we determined the relationship of health literacy, subjective numeracy, and other patient characteristics with preferences for involvement in decisions, and how this differed by scenario. The authors found that patients with higher levels of health literacy desired more participation in the problem-solving and decision-making process, as did patients with higher subjective numeracy skills, greater educational attainment, female gender, less perceived social support, or greater health care system distrust (p<.05 for each predictor in multivariable models). Patients also preferred to participate more in the decision-making process when the hypothetical symptom they were experiencing was less severe (i.e., they deferred more to their physician when the hypothetical symptom was more severe). These findings underscore the role that patient characteristics, especially health literacy and numeracy, play in decisional preferences among hospitalized patients.

A satellite and model based flood inundation climatology of Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumann, G.; Andreadis, K.; Castillo, C. J.

2013-12-01

To date there is no coherent and consistent database on observed or simulated flood event inundation and magnitude at large scales (continental to global). The only compiled data set showing a consistent history of flood inundation area and extent at a near global scale is provided by the MODIS-based Dartmouth Flood Observatory. However, MODIS satellite imagery is only available from 2000 and is hampered by a number of issues associated with flood mapping using optical images (e.g. classification algorithms, cloud cover, vegetation). Here, we present for the first time a proof-of-concept study in which we employ a computationally efficient 2-D hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) complemented with a sub-grid channel formulation to generate a complete flood inundation climatology of the past 40 years (1973-2012) for the entire Australian continent. The model was built completely from freely available SRTM-derived data, including channel widths, bank heights and floodplain topography, which was corrected for vegetation canopy height using a global ICESat canopy dataset. Channel hydraulics were resolved using actual channel data and bathymetry was estimated within the model using hydraulic geometry. On the floodplain, the model simulated the flow paths and inundation variables at a 1 km resolution. The developed model was run over a period of 40 years and a floodplain inundation climatology was generated and compared to satellite flood event observations. Our proof-of-concept study demonstrates that this type of model can reliably simulate past flood events with reasonable accuracies both in time and space. The Australian model was forced with both observed flow climatology and VIC-simulated flows in order to assess the feasibility of a model-based flood inundation climatology at the global scale.

Frail-VIG index: a concise frailty evaluation tool for rapid geriatric assessment.

PubMed

Amblàs-Novellas, Jordi; Martori, Joan Carles; Espaulella, Joan; Oller, Ramon; Molist-Brunet, Núria; Inzitari, Marco; Romero-Ortuno, Roman

2018-01-26

Demographic changes have led to an increase in the number of elderly frail persons and, consequently, systematic geriatric assessment is more important than ever. Frailty Indexes (FI) may be particularly useful to discriminate between various degrees of frailty but are not routinely assessed due, at least in part, to the large number of deficits assessed (from 30 to 70). Therefore, we have developed a new, more concise FI for rapid geriatric assessment (RGA)-the Frail-VIG index ("VIG" is the Spanish/Catalan abbreviation for Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment), which contains 22 simple questions that assess 25 different deficits. Here we describe this FI and report its ability to predict mortality at 24 months. Prospective, observational, longitudinal study of geriatric patients followed for 24 months or until death. The study participants were patients (n = 590) admitted to the Acute Geriatric Unit at the at the University Hospital of Vic (Barcelona) during the year 2014. Participants were classified into one of seven groups based on their Frail-VIG score (0-0.15; 0.16-0.25; 0.26-0.35; 0.36-0.45; 0.46-0.55; 0.56-0.65; and 0.66-1). Survival curves for these groups were compared using the log-rank test. ROC curves were used to assess the index's capacity to predict mortality at 24 months. Mean (standard deviation) patient age was 86.4 (5.6) years. The 24-month mortality rate was 57.3% for the whole sample. Significant between-group (deceased vs. living) differences (p < 0.05) were observed for most index variables. Survival curves for the seven Frail-VIG groups differed significantly (X 2  = 433.4, p < 0.001), with an area under the ROC curve (confidence interval) of 0.90 (0.88-0.92) at 12 months and 0.85 (0.82-0.88) at 24 months. Administration time for the Frail-VIG index ranged from 5 to 10 min. The Frail-VIG index, which requires less time to administer than previously validated FIs, presents a good discriminative capacity for the degree of frailty and a high predictive capacity for mortality in the present cohort. Although more research is needed to confirm the validity of this instrument in other populations and settings, the Frail-VIG may provide clinicians with a RGA method and also a reliable tool to assess frailty in routine practice.

Conceptual Models and Guidelines for Clinical Assessment of Financial Capacity

PubMed Central

Marson, Daniel

2016-01-01

The ability to manage financial affairs is a life skill of critical importance, and neuropsychologists are increasingly asked to assess financial capacity across a variety of settings. Sound clinical assessment of financial capacity requires knowledge and appreciation of applicable clinical conceptual models and principles. However, the literature has presented relatively little conceptual guidance for clinicians concerning financial capacity and its assessment. This article seeks to address this gap. The article presents six clinical models of financial capacity : (1) the early gerontological IADL model of Lawton, (2) the clinical skills model and (3) related cognitive psychological model developed by Marson and colleagues, (4) a financial decision-making model adapting earlier decisional capacity work of Appelbaum and Grisso, (5) a person-centered model of financial decision-making developed by Lichtenberg and colleagues, and (6) a recent model of financial capacity in the real world developed through the Institute of Medicine. Accompanying presentation of the models is discussion of conceptual and practical perspectives they represent for clinician assessment. Based on the models, the article concludes by presenting a series of conceptually oriented guidelines for clinical assessment of financial capacity. In summary, sound assessment of financial capacity requires knowledge and appreciation of clinical conceptual models and principles. Awareness of such models, principles and guidelines will strengthen and advance clinical assessment of financial capacity. PMID:27506235

Testing the Predictions of the Central Capacity Sharing Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tombu, Michael; Jolicoeur, Pierre

2005-01-01

The divergent predictions of 2 models of dual-task performance are investigated. The central bottleneck and central capacity sharing models argue that a central stage of information processing is capacity limited, whereas stages before and after are capacity free. The models disagree about the nature of this central capacity limitation. The…

Echocardiography service provision in New Zealand: The implications of capacity modelling for the cardiac sonographer workforce.

PubMed

Buckley, Belinda; Farnworth, Mark J; Whalley, Gillian

2016-01-08

Regional disparity in both utilisation and the cardiac sonographer workforce has previously been identified. We sought to model the capacity of the cardiac sonographer workforce at a national and District Health Board level to better understand these regional differences. In 2013, surveys were distributed to 18 hospitals who employ cardiac sonographers (return rate 100%). Questions related to cardiac sonographer demographics, echo utilisation and workflow. Actual clinical capacity was calculated from scan duration and annual scan volumes. New Zealand national actual capacity was compared to predicted capacity from three international models. Potential clinical capacity was calculated from the workforce size in fulltime equivalent (FTE) and clinical availability. In New Zealand, scan duration and population-based clinical capacity varies between centres. The New Zealand capacity is similar to the UK 30:70 model, and consistently less than the US model for all scan types. There are marked regional differences in potential versus actual capacity, with 10/16 DHBs demonstrating excess potential capacity. There is regional disparity in the capacity of the cardiac sonographer workforce, which appears to be strongly related to scan duration. Workforce capacity modelling should be used with need and demand modelling to plan adequate levels of service provision.

The Aviation System Analysis Capability Airport Capacity and Delay Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, David A.; Nelson, Caroline; Shapiro, Gerald

1998-01-01

The ASAC Airport Capacity Model and the ASAC Airport Delay Model support analyses of technologies addressing airport capacity. NASA's Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC) Airport Capacity Model estimates the capacity of an airport as a function of weather, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) procedures, traffic characteristics, and the level of technology available. Airport capacity is presented as a Pareto frontier of arrivals per hour versus departures per hour. The ASAC Airport Delay Model allows the user to estimate the minutes of arrival delay for an airport, given its (weather dependent) capacity. Historical weather observations and demand patterns are provided by ASAC as inputs to the delay model. The ASAC economic models can translate a reduction in delay minutes into benefit dollars.

Combined effects of projected sea level rise, storm surge, and peak river flows on water levels in the Skagit Floodplain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamman, Josheph J; Hamlet, Alan F.; Fuller, Roger; Grossman, Eric E.

2016-01-01

Current understanding of the combined effects of sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, and changes in river flooding on near-coastal environments is very limited. This project uses a suite of numerical models to examine the combined effects of projected future climate change on flooding in the Skagit floodplain and estuary. Statistically and dynamically downscaled global climate model scenarios from the ECHAM-5 GCM were used as the climate forcings. Unregulated daily river flows were simulated using the VIC hydrology model, and regulated river flows were simulated using the SkagitSim reservoir operations model. Daily tidal anomalies (TA) were calculated using a regression approach based on ENSO and atmospheric pressure forcing simulated by the WRF regional climate model. A 2-D hydrodynamic model was used to estimate water surface elevations in the Skagit floodplain using resampled hourly hydrographs keyed to regulated daily flood flows produced by the reservoir simulation model, and tide predictions adjusted for SLR and TA. Combining peak annual TA with projected sea level rise, the historical (1970–1999) 100-yr peak high water level is exceeded essentially every year by the 2050s. The combination of projected sea level rise and larger floods by the 2080s yields both increased flood inundation area (+ 74%), and increased average water depth (+ 25 cm) in the Skagit floodplain during a 100-year flood. Adding sea level rise to the historical FEMA 100-year flood resulted in a 35% increase in inundation area by the 2040's, compared to a 57% increase when both SLR and projected changes in river flow were combined.

Conceptual Models and Guidelines for Clinical Assessment of Financial Capacity.

PubMed

Marson, Daniel

2016-09-01

The ability to manage financial affairs is a life skill of critical importance, and neuropsychologists are increasingly asked to assess financial capacity across a variety of settings. Sound clinical assessment of financial capacity requires knowledge and appreciation of applicable clinical conceptual models and principles. However, the literature has presented relatively little conceptual guidance for clinicians concerning financial capacity and its assessment. This article seeks to address this gap. The article presents six clinical models of financial capacity : (1) the early gerontological IADL model of Lawton, (2) the clinical skills model and (3) related cognitive psychological model developed by Marson and colleagues, (4) a financial decision-making model adapting earlier decisional capacity work of Appelbaum and Grisso, (5) a person-centered model of financial decision-making developed by Lichtenberg and colleagues, and (6) a recent model of financial capacity in the real world developed through the Institute of Medicine. Accompanying presentation of the models is discussion of conceptual and practical perspectives they represent for clinician assessment. Based on the models, the article concludes by presenting a series of conceptually oriented guidelines for clinical assessment of financial capacity. In summary, sound assessment of financial capacity requires knowledge and appreciation of clinical conceptual models and principles. Awareness of such models, principles and guidelines will strengthen and advance clinical assessment of financial capacity. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A prototype data assimilation framework for generating spatiotemporally continuous SWOT data products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreadis, K.; Margulis, S. A.; Li, D.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite will provide critical surface water observations for the hydrologic community. However, production of key SWOT variables, such as river discharge and surface inundation, as well as lake, reservoir, and wetland storage change will be complicated by the discontinuity of the observations in space and time. A methodology that generates products with spatially and temporally continuous fields based on SWOT observables would be highly desirable. Data assimilation provides a mechanism for merging observations from SWOT with model predictions in order to produce estimates of quantities such as river discharge, storage change, and water heights for locations and times when there is no satellite overpass or other constraints (such as layover) render the measurement unusable. We describe here a prototype assimilation system with application to the Upper Mississippi basin, implemented using synthetic SWOT observations. We use a hydrologic model (VIC) coupled with a hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) which generates "true" fields of surface water variables. The true fields are then used to generate synthetic SWOT observations using the SWOT Instrument Simulator. We also perform a "first-guess" (or open-loop) simulation with the coupled model using a configuration that contains errors representative of the imperfect knowledge of parameters and input data, including channel topography, bankfull widths and depths, and inflows, to create an ensemble of 20 model trajectories. Subsequently we assimilate the synthetic SWOT observations into the open-loop model results to estimate water surface elevation, discharge, and storage change. Our preliminary results using three data assimilation strategies show that all improve the water surface elevation estimate accuracy by 25% - 35% for a river reach of the upper Mississippi River. Ongoing work is examining whether the improved water surface elevation estimates propagate to improvements in river discharge.

Simulated permafrost soil thermal dynamics during 1960-2009 in eight offline processed-based models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, S.; Gouttevin, I.; Krinner, G.; Ciais, P.

2013-12-01

Permafrost soil thermal dynamics not only determine the status of permafrost, but also have large impacts on permafrost organic carbon decomposition. Here, we used eight processed based models that participated in the Vulnerability Permafrost Carbon Research Coordination Network (RCN) project to investigate: (1) the trends in soil temperature at different depths over the northern hemisphere permafrost region during the past five decades, and (2) which factors drive trends and inter-annual variability of permafrost soil temperature? The simulated annual soil temperature at 20cm increases by ~0.02 °C per year from 1960 to 2009 (ranging from 0.00 °C per year in CoLM to 0.04 °C per year in ISBA). Most models simulated more warming of soil in spring and winter than in summer and autumn, although there were different seasonal trends in different models. Trends in soil temperature decrease with soil depth in all models. To quantify the contributions of various factors (air temperature, precipitation, downward longwave radiation etc.) to trends and inter-annual variation in soil temperature, we ran offline models with detrended air temperature, precipitation, downward longwave radiation, respectively. Our results suggest that both annual air temperature and downward longwave radiation significantly correlate with annual soil temperature. Moreover, trend in air temperature and downward longwave radiation contribute 30% and 60% to trends in soil temperature (0 - 200cm), respectively, during the period 1960-2009. Spatial distributions of trend in annual soil temperature at 20cm from R01 simulations of (a) CLM4, (b) CoLM, (c) ISBA, (d) JULES, (e) LPJ_GUESS, (f) ORCHIDEE, (g) UVic and (h) UW-VIC during the period 1960-2009.

Evaluating the performance of real-time streamflow forecasting using multi-satellite precipitation products in the Upper Zambezi, Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaria, E. M.; Valdes, J. B.; Wi, S.; Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Durcik, M.

2016-12-01

In under-instrumented basins around the world, accurate and timely forecasts of river streamflows have the potential of assisting water and natural resource managers in their management decisions. The Upper Zambezi river basin is the largest basin in southern Africa and its water resources are critical to sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction in eight riparian countries. We present a real-time streamflow forecast for the basin using a multi-model-multi-satellite approach that allows accounting for model and input uncertainties. Three distributed hydrologic models with different levels of complexity: VIC, HYMOD_DS, and HBV_DS are setup at a daily time step and a 0.25 degree spatial resolution for the basin. The hydrologic models are calibrated against daily observed streamflows at the Katima-Mulilo station using a Genetic Algorithm. Three real-time satellite products: Climate Prediction Center's morphing technique (CMORPH), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM-3B42RT) are bias-corrected with daily CHIRPS estimates. Uncertainty bounds for predicted flows are estimated with the Inverse Variance Weighting method. Because concentration times in the basin range from a few days to more than a week, we include the use of precipitation forecasts from the Global Forecasting System (GFS) to predict daily streamflows in the basin with a 10-days lead time. The skill of GFS-predicted streamflows is evaluated and the usefulness of the forecasts for short term water allocations is presented.

A kinematic wave model in Lagrangian coordinates incorporating capacity drop: Application to homogeneous road stretches and discontinuities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Kai; Knoop, Victor L.; Hoogendoorn, Serge P.

2017-01-01

On freeways, congestion always leads to capacity drop. This means the queue discharge rate is lower than the pre-queue capacity. Our recent research findings indicate that the queue discharge rate increases with the speed in congestion, that is the capacity drop is strongly correlated with the congestion state. Incorporating this varying capacity drop into a kinematic wave model is essential for assessing consequences of control strategies. However, to the best of authors' knowledge, no such a model exists. This paper fills the research gap by presenting a Lagrangian kinematic wave model. "Lagrangian" denotes that the new model is solved in Lagrangian coordinates. The new model can give capacity drops accompanying both of stop-and-go waves (on homogeneous freeway section) and standing queues (at nodes) in a network. The new model can be applied in a network operation. In this Lagrangian kinematic wave model, the queue discharge rate (or the capacity drop) is a function of vehicular speed in traffic jams. Four case studies on links as well as at lane-drop and on-ramp nodes show that the Lagrangian kinematic wave model can give capacity drops well, consistent with empirical observations.

Divided attention limits perception of 3-D object shapes

PubMed Central

Scharff, Alec; Palmer, John; Moore, Cathleen M.

2013-01-01

Can one perceive multiple object shapes at once? We tested two benchmark models of object shape perception under divided attention: an unlimited-capacity and a fixed-capacity model. Under unlimited-capacity models, shapes are analyzed independently and in parallel. Under fixed-capacity models, shapes are processed at a fixed rate (as in a serial model). To distinguish these models, we compared conditions in which observers were presented with simultaneous or sequential presentations of a fixed number of objects (The extended simultaneous-sequential method: Scharff, Palmer, & Moore, 2011a, 2011b). We used novel physical objects as stimuli, minimizing the role of semantic categorization in the task. Observers searched for a specific object among similar objects. We ensured that non-shape stimulus properties such as color and texture could not be used to complete the task. Unpredictable viewing angles were used to preclude image-matching strategies. The results rejected unlimited-capacity models for object shape perception and were consistent with the predictions of a fixed-capacity model. In contrast, a task that required observers to recognize 2-D shapes with predictable viewing angles yielded an unlimited capacity result. Further experiments ruled out alternative explanations for the capacity limit, leading us to conclude that there is a fixed-capacity limit on the ability to perceive 3-D object shapes. PMID:23404158

Noise Adaptation and Correlated Maneuver Gating of an Extended Kalman Filter

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-03-01

ay. 89 - (V) 2 + VY2,,o (A.11) v t E(A21 Y )(V’~2 + V 20r8 2 (A. 12) We also find that the covariance of ax and ay is E[axay] - E[ aya j - Vic) -Y G... Diary -- YES eval([’ diary ’,MatFilename]); end; 108 % System Information, in continuous time, for target, and initial guess A=[0 1 00 % x 0000 % xdot 000...Cleanup diary off; 114 D. KFBR.M function [Z,GI,Res,Pxy,xe] = kfbr(xobs,zobs,xO,IE,A,B,W,V,T,MD,P0,RAI,IL,IT,SG) * %KF BR % [Z,GI,Res,Pxy,xe] - kf__br

Asymmetric nucleophilic monofluorobenzylation of carbonyl compounds: synthesis of enantiopure vic-fluorohydrins and α-fluorobenzylketones.

PubMed

Arroyo, Yolanda; Sanz-Tejedor, M Ascensión; Parra, Alejandro; García Ruano, José Luis

2012-04-23

Asymmetric nucleophilic monofluoroalkylation of a broad range of aldehydes with an α-fluoro-γ-sulfinylbenzyl carbanion takes place with complete control of the facial selectivity at the carbanion and good to high anti-diastereoselectivity to give easily separable mixtures of two optically pure 1,2-fluorohydrin derivatives (up to 24:1 anti/syn). Separation and removal of the p-tolylsulfinyl group with tBuLi provides enantiomerically pure anti-1,2-disubstituted-1,2-fluorohydrins, whereas α-fluorobenzylketones can be obtained by desulfinylation of the mixture followed by pyridinium chlorochromate oxidation (one-pot process). Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Australian abalone (Haliotis laevigata, H. rubra and H. conicopora) are susceptible to infection by multiple abalone herpesvirus genotypes.

PubMed

Corbeil, Serge; Williams, Lynette M; McColl, Kenneth A; Crane, Mark St J

2016-05-03

From 2006 to 2012, acute mortalities occurred in farmed and wild abalone (Haliotis spp.) along the coast of Victoria, Australia. The disease (abalone viral ganglioneuritis; AVG) is associated with infection by an abalone herpesvirus (AbHV). The relative pathogenicity of 5 known variants of AbHV was evaluated on abalone stocks from different states in Australia. Results indicated that all virus variants (Vic1, Tas1, Tas2, Tas3 and Tas4) cause disease and mortality in all abalone stocks tested (greenlip, blacklip and brownlip). In order to avoid further AVG outbreaks in Australian wild abalone, strict regulations on the transfer of abalone stocks must be implemented.

Formation and evolution of a drainage network during the Pleistocene through a process of homoclinal shifting initiated by headward erosion.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelltort, F. Xavier; Carles Balasch, J.; Cirés, Jordi; Colombo, Ferran

2017-04-01

A homoclinal shifting process in NE of the Ebro basin, NE Iberian Peninsula, reorganized an old flow network into a new one. This process was initiated by the reactivation of a major normal fault (Amer Fault). An anaclinal stream, flowing to the hanging wall block, incised in the fault-line scarp, accessing by headward erosion the less resistant Paleogene units. The result was the formation of a sequence of strike valleys. The first valleys are situated in a more elevated topographical position than the valleys formed later. The last and the most important valley is La Plana de Vic, which is being emptied by differential erosion in front of the resistant base layer. The study of the lateral migration of a drainage basin since its initial stages has allowed the recognition of the layout of a drainage network and its model of evolution. The new drainage network includes three different subsystems. The main subsystem consists of stream courses flowing along the strike valley. While the other two subsystems flow into the main or can flow directly to the basin sink. These are the anaclinal subsystem, which drains the scarp face of the asymmetric valley, and the cataclinal subsystem, which drains the cuesta. The process of homoclinal shifting makes the strike streams migrate laterally and dip in the less resistant unit. This migration implies the reorganization of the other two tributary subsystems. The sequence of reorganizations may be preserved on the resistant bedrock of the cuesta. This allows the reconstruction of the route of the headward erosion of the initial anaclinal stream course through remnants of ancient strike streams flowing into former basin sinks, and its cataclinal tributaries draining the cuesta. In the case study of La Plana de Vic the migration route of the basin sink can be reconstructed from its initial position, Early Pleistocene, until present day. Besides, reorganization of the cataclinal network can also be recognized. During the lateral migration three incisions were made in a large anticlinal structure in the north (Bellmunt Anticline) and one incision was made in a crystalline massif (Montseny) in the south. The last of the incisions into the Bellmunt Anticline captured by headward erosion an older drainage network with headwaters in the axial Pyrenees. The result of the homoclinal shifting process was the capture of older drainage basins and the formation of the current drainage basin of the river Ter.

Crustal and Upper Mantle S-velocity Structure From Receiver Functions Analisys Around Terra Nova Bay Base, Antartica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piana Agostinetti, N.; Amato, A.; Cattaneo, M.; de Gori, P.; di Bona, M.

In the framework of the italian PNRA (Progetto Nazionale di Ricerche in Antartide), we have started to re-analize teleseismic waveforms recorded, using three-components seismometers (equipped with 5 seconds sensors, Lennartz 3D-5s), during five summer campaings, from 1993 to 2000. Seismic stations were deployed around Terra Nova Bay (TNB) italian base, from the sea to reach the interior of the Transantartic Moun- tains (TAM), the most striking example of nocontractional mountain belt. During the last campaingn (1999-2000) seismic stations were deployed deep into Northern Vic- toria Land to reach Rennik and Lillie Glaciers Area and George V coast region, the northest part of TAM. Our main goals were: to compute, using frequency-domanin deconvolution method by Di Bona [1998], Receiver Functions covering all the area around TNB italian antartic base; to map of Moho-depth and intercrustal S-waves ve- locity discontinuity from 1-D velocity model computed using Sambridge's inversion scheme [Sambridge,1999]; to analize new teleseimic waveforms recorded near TNB base: continuos recording, from 1999 to present, permits more accurate modelling S-velocity crustal structure in this critical area situated at the edge of the ipothetic rift [Stern and ten Brik, 1989; Stump and Fitzgerald, 1992; ten Brik et al., 1997]; to present final results from BACKTAM expedition.

Global Drought Monitoring and Forecasting based on Satellite Data and Land Surface Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Lobell, D. B.; Wood, E. F.

2010-12-01

Monitoring drought globally is challenging because of the lack of dense in-situ hydrologic data in many regions. In particular, soil moisture measurements are absent in many regions and in real time. This is especially problematic for developing regions such as Africa where water information is arguably most needed, but virtually non-existent on the ground. With the emergence of remote sensing estimates of all components of the water cycle there is now the potential to monitor the full terrestrial water cycle from space to give global coverage and provide the basis for drought monitoring. These estimates include microwave-infrared merged precipitation retrievals, evapotranspiration based on satellite radiation, temperature and vegetation data, gravity recovery measurements of changes in water storage, microwave based retrievals of soil moisture and altimetry based estimates of lake levels and river flows. However, many challenges remain in using these data, especially due to biases in individual satellite retrieved components, their incomplete sampling in time and space, and their failure to provide budget closure in concert. A potential way forward is to use modeling to provide a framework to merge these disparate sources of information to give physically consistent and spatially and temporally continuous estimates of the water cycle and drought. Here we present results from our experimental global water cycle monitor and its African drought monitor counterpart (http://hydrology.princeton.edu/monitor). The system relies heavily on satellite data to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model to provide near real-time estimates of precipitation, evapotranspiraiton, soil moisture, snow pack and streamflow. Drought is defined in terms of anomalies of soil moisture and other hydrologic variables relative to a long-term (1950-2000) climatology. We present some examples of recent droughts and how they are identified by the system, including objective quantification and tracking of their spatial-temporal characteristics. Further we present strategies for merging various sources of information, including bias correction of satellite precipitation and assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture, which can augment the monitoring in regions where satellite precipitation is most uncertain. Ongoing work is adding a drought forecast component based on a successful implementation over the U.S. and agricultural productivity estimates based on output from crop yield models. The forecast component uses seasonal global climate forecasts from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS). These are merged with observed climatology in a Bayesian framework to produce ensemble atmospheric forcings that better capture the uncertainties. At the same time, the system bias corrects and downscales the monthly CFS data. We show some initial seasonal (up to 6-month lead) hydrologic forecast results for the African system. Agricultural monitoring is based on the precipitation, temperature and soil moisture from the system to force statistical and process based crop yield models. We demonstrate the feasibility of monitoring major crop types across the world and show a strategy for providing predictions of yields within our drought forecast mode.

The Influence of Climate Change on Irrigated Water Demands and Surface Water Availability of the Yellow River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troy, T. J.; Zhang, J.

2017-12-01

Balancing irrigated water demands and surface water availability is critical for sustainable water resources management. In China, irrigation is the largest water user, and there is concern that irrigated water demands will be affected by climate change. If the relationship between climate change, irrigated water demands and surface water availability is quantified, then effective measures can be developed to maintain food production while ensuring water sustainability. This research focuses on the Yellow River, the second longest in China, and analyzes the impact of historical and projected climate change on agricultural water demands and surface water availability. Corn and wheat are selected as representative crops to estimate the effect of temperature and precipitin changes on irrigated water demands. The VIC model is used to simulate daily streamflow throughout the Yellow River, providing estimates of surface water availability. Overall, results indicate the irrigated water need and surface water availability are impacted by climate change, with spatially varying impacts depending on spatial patterns of climate trends and river network position. This research provides insight into water security in the Yellow River basin, indicating where water efficiency measures are needed and where they are not.

Improving Power System Modeling. A Tool to Link Capacity Expansion and Production Cost Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diakov, Victor; Cole, Wesley; Sullivan, Patrick

2015-11-01

Capacity expansion models (CEM) provide a high-level long-term view at the prospects of the evolving power system. In simulating the possibilities of long-term capacity expansion, it is important to maintain the viability of power system operation in the short-term (daily, hourly and sub-hourly) scales. Production-cost models (PCM) simulate routine power system operation on these shorter time scales using detailed load, transmission and generation fleet data by minimizing production costs and following reliability requirements. When based on CEM 'predictions' about generating unit retirements and buildup, PCM provide more detailed simulation for the short-term system operation and, consequently, may confirm the validitymore » of capacity expansion predictions. Further, production cost model simulations of a system that is based on capacity expansion model solution are 'evolutionary' sound: the generator mix is the result of logical sequence of unit retirement and buildup resulting from policy and incentives. The above has motivated us to bridge CEM with PCM by building a capacity expansion - to - production cost model Linking Tool (CEPCoLT). The Linking Tool is built to onset capacity expansion model prescriptions onto production cost model inputs. NREL's ReEDS and Energy Examplar's PLEXOS are the capacity expansion and the production cost models, respectively. Via the Linking Tool, PLEXOS provides details of operation for the regionally-defined ReEDS scenarios.« less

Role of the Streptococcus mutans CRISPR-Cas Systems in Immunity and Cell Physiology

PubMed Central

Serbanescu, M. A.; Cordova, M.; Krastel, K.; Flick, R.; Beloglazova, N.; Latos, A.; Yakunin, A. F.; Senadheera, D. B.

2014-01-01

CRISPR-Cas systems provide adaptive microbial immunity against invading viruses and plasmids. The cariogenic bacterium Streptococcus mutans UA159 has two CRISPR-Cas systems: CRISPR1 (type II-A) and CRISPR2 (type I-C) with several spacers from both CRISPR cassettes matching sequences of phage M102 or genomic sequences of other S. mutans. The deletion of the cas genes of CRISPR1 (ΔC1S), CRISPR2 (ΔC2E), or both CRISPR1+2 (ΔC1SC2E) or the removal of spacers 2 and 3 (ΔCR1SP13E) in S. mutans UA159 did not affect phage sensitivity when challenged with virulent phage M102. Using plasmid transformation experiments, we demonstrated that the CRISPR1-Cas system inhibits transformation of S. mutans by the plasmids matching the spacers 2 and 3. Functional analysis of the cas deletion mutants revealed that in addition to a role in plasmid targeting, both CRISPR systems also contribute to the regulation of bacterial physiology in S. mutans. Compared to wild-type cells, the ΔC1S strain displayed diminished growth under cell membrane and oxidative stress, enhanced growth under low pH, and had reduced survival under heat shock and DNA-damaging conditions, whereas the ΔC2E strain exhibited increased sensitivity to heat shock. Transcriptional analysis revealed that the two-component signal transduction system VicR/K differentially modulates expression of cas genes within CRISPR-Cas systems, suggesting that VicR/K might coordinate the expression of two CRISPR-Cas systems. Collectively, we provide in vivo evidence that the type II-A CRISPR-Cas system of S. mutans may be targeted to manipulate its stress response and to influence the host to control the uptake and dissemination of antibiotic resistance genes. PMID:25488301

LncRNA MALAT1 sponges miR-204 to promote osteoblast differentiation of human aortic valve interstitial cells through up-regulating Smad4.

PubMed

Xiao, Xiaoxiong; Zhou, Tingwen; Guo, Shichao; Guo, Chao; Zhang, Qiao; Dong, Nianguo; Wang, Yongjun

2017-09-15

Emerging evidences have indicated that long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) play vital roles in cardiovascular physiology and pathology. The lncRNA MALAT1, a highly abundant and conserved imprinted gene, has been implicated in many cardiovascular diseases. However, the function of MALAT1 in calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) remains unknown. This study sought to document the function and underlying mechanism of MALAT1 in regulating CAVD. Protein level was determined by immunoblotting and immunofluorescence staining. MALAT1, miR-204 and mRNA expressions were detected by qRT-PCR. Mineralized bone matrix formation was assessed by Alizarin Red staining. The interaction between MALAT1 and miR-204 was studied using luciferase reporter assay, RNA pull-down assay and RNA-binding protein immunoprecipitation assay. Ectopic expression of MALAT1 was observed in calcific valves and after osteogenic induction in human aortic valve interstitial cells (VICs). In vitro experiments revealed that MALAT1 acted as a positive regulator of osteogenic differentiation by repressing miR-204 expression and activity and thereby promoting expression of osteoblast-specific markers, including alkaline phosphatase, mineralized bone matrix formation and osteocalcin. Mechanistically, we identified Smad4 as a direct target of miR-204. Importantly, MALAT1 could directly interact with miR-204 and overexpression of miR-204 efficiently reversed the upregulation of Smad4 induced by MALAT1. Thus, MALAT1 positively regulated the expression of Smad4 through sponging miR-204, and promoted osteogenic differentiation of VICs. Our study provides novel mechanistic insights into a critical role for lncRNA MALAT1 as a miRNA sponge in CAVD and sheds new light on lncRNA-directed diagnostics and therapeutics in CAVD. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Oxidation-induced water-solubilization and chemical functionalization of fullerenes C60, Gd@C60 and Gd@C82: atomistic insights into the formation mechanisms and structures of fullerenols synthesized by different methods.

PubMed

Wang, Zhenzhen; Lu, Zhanghui; Zhao, Yuliang; Gao, Xingfa

2015-02-21

Water-solubilization is the prerequisite to endow the pristinely hydrophobic fullerenes with biocompatibility and biofunctionality, which has been widely applied to derive fullerene-based nanomaterials for biomedical applications. Oxidation reactions using O2 and H2O2 are the most commonly used approaches to this end, through which fullerenols with different structural features can be obtained. Despite the progress in the syntheses and bioapplications of fullerenols, their formation mechanisms and structures at the atomic level, which substantialize their physical properties and biofunctions, have been little understood. Using density functional theory calculations, we comparatively study the mechanisms and product structures for the oxidations of C60, Gd@C60 and Gd@C82 using both O2 and H2O2 as oxidizing agents under both neutral and alkaline aqueous conditions. We predict the formation mechanisms and product structures corresponding to the different synthetic conditions. Briefly, the H2O2 oxidations of C60, Gd@C60 and Gd@C82 under neutral conditions do not occur readily at room temperature because of the high energy barriers, whereas the H2O2 oxidations can readily proceed under alkaline conditions. The oxygen-containing groups of the fullerenols obtained under these conditions include hydroxyl, carbonyl, hemiacetal and deprotonated vic-diol. In contrast, through O2 oxidation under alkaline conditions, the most probable oxygen-containing groups for C60 fullerenols are epoxide and deprotonated vic-diol, and those for Gd@C60 and Gd@C82 fullerenols are hydroxyls and carbonyls. The results explain a wide range of experimental findings reported before. More importantly, they provide atomistic-level insights into the formation mechanisms and structures for various fullerenols, which are of fundamental interest for understanding their biomedical applications in the future.

An exploration of inter-organisational partnership assessment tools in the context of Australian Aboriginal-mainstream partnerships: a scoping review of the literature.

PubMed

Tsou, Christina; Haynes, Emma; Warner, Wayne D; Gray, Gordon; Thompson, Sandra C

2015-04-23

The need for better partnerships between Aboriginal organisations and mainstream agencies demands attention on process and relational elements of these partnerships, and improving partnership functioning through transformative or iterative evaluation procedures. This paper presents the findings of a literature review which examines the usefulness of existing partnership tools to the Australian Aboriginal-mainstream partnership (AMP) context. Three sets of best practice principles for successful AMP were selected based on authors' knowledge and experience. Items in each set of principles were separated into process and relational elements and used to guide the analysis of partnership assessment tools. The review and analysis of partnership assessment tools were conducted in three distinct but related parts. Part 1- identify and select reviews of partnership tools; part 2 - identify and select partnership self-assessment tool; part 3 - analysis of selected tools using AMP principles. The focus on relational and process elements in the partnership tools reviewed is consistent with the focus of Australian AMP principles by reconciliation advocates; however, historical context, lived experience, cultural context and approaches of Australian Aboriginal people represent key deficiencies in the tools reviewed. The overall assessment indicated that the New York Partnership Self-Assessment Tool and the VicHealth Partnership Analysis Tools reflect the greatest number of AMP principles followed by the Nuffield Partnership Assessment Tool. The New York PSAT has the strongest alignment with the relational elements while VicHealth and Nuffield tools showed greatest alignment with the process elements in the chosen AMP principles. Partnership tools offer opportunities for providing evidence based support to partnership development. The multiplicity of tools in existence and the reported uniqueness of each partnership, mean the development of a generic partnership analysis for AMP may not be a viable option for future effort.

Elevated Serotonin Interacts with Angiotensin-II to Result in Altered Valve Interstitial Cell Contractility and Remodeling.

PubMed

Perez, Jessica; Diaz, Nancy; Tandon, Ishita; Plate, Rachel; Martindale, Christopher; Balachandran, Kartik

2018-06-01

While the valvulopathic effects of serotonin (5HT) and angiotensin-II (Ang-II) individually are known, it was not clear how 5HT and Ang-II might interact, specifically in the context of the mechanobiological responses due to altered valve mechanics potentiated by these molecules. In this context, the hypothesis of this study was that increased serotonin levels would result in accelerated progression toward disease in the presence of angiotensin-II-induced hypertension. C57/BL6 J mice were divided into four groups and subcutaneously implanted with osmotic pumps containing: PBS (control), 5HT (2.5 ng/kg/min), Ang-II (400 ng/kg/min), and 5HT + Ang-II (combination). Blood pressure was monitored using the tail cuff method. Echocardiography was performed on the mice before surgery and every week thereafter to assess ejection fraction. After three weeks, the mice were sacrificed and their hearts excised, embedded and sectioned for analysis of the aortic valves via histology and immunohistochemistry. In separate experiments, porcine valve interstitial cells (VICs) were directly stimulated with 5HT (10 -7  M), Ang-II (100 nM) or both and assayed for cellular contractility, cytoskeletal organization and collagen remodeling. After three weeks, average systolic blood pressure was significantly increased in the 5HT, Ang-II and combination groups compared to control. Echocardiographic analysis demonstrated significantly reduced ejection fraction in Ang-II and the combination groups. H&E staining demonstrated thicker leaflets in the combination groups, suggesting a more aggressive remodeling process. Picrosirius red staining and image analysis suggested that the Ang-II and combination groups had the largest proportion of thicker collagen fibers. VIC orientation, cellular contractility and collagen gene expression was highest for the 5HT + Ang-II combination treatment compared to all other groups. Overall, our results suggest that 5HT and Ang-II interact to result in significantly detrimental alteration of function and remodeling in the valve.

Golden Ratio Genetic Algorithm Based Approach for Modelling and Analysis of the Capacity Expansion of Urban Road Traffic Network

PubMed Central

Zhang, Lun; Zhang, Meng; Yang, Wenchen; Dong, Decun

2015-01-01

This paper presents the modelling and analysis of the capacity expansion of urban road traffic network (ICURTN). Thebilevel programming model is first employed to model the ICURTN, in which the utility of the entire network is maximized with the optimal utility of travelers' route choice. Then, an improved hybrid genetic algorithm integrated with golden ratio (HGAGR) is developed to enhance the local search of simple genetic algorithms, and the proposed capacity expansion model is solved by the combination of the HGAGR and the Frank-Wolfe algorithm. Taking the traditional one-way network and bidirectional network as the study case, three numerical calculations are conducted to validate the presented model and algorithm, and the primary influencing factors on extended capacity model are analyzed. The calculation results indicate that capacity expansion of road network is an effective measure to enlarge the capacity of urban road network, especially on the condition of limited construction budget; the average computation time of the HGAGR is 122 seconds, which meets the real-time demand in the evaluation of the road network capacity. PMID:25802512

Models of verbal working memory capacity: what does it take to make them work?

PubMed

Cowan, Nelson; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Blume, Christopher L; Saults, J Scott

2012-07-01

Theories of working memory (WM) capacity limits will be more useful when we know what aspects of performance are governed by the limits and what aspects are governed by other memory mechanisms. Whereas considerable progress has been made on models of WM capacity limits for visual arrays of separate objects, less progress has been made in understanding verbal materials, especially when words are mentally combined to form multiword units or chunks. Toward a more comprehensive theory of capacity limits, we examined models of forced-choice recognition of words within printed lists, using materials designed to produce multiword chunks in memory (e.g., leather brief case). Several simple models were tested against data from a variety of list lengths and potential chunk sizes, with test conditions that only imperfectly elicited the interword associations. According to the most successful model, participants retained about 3 chunks on average in a capacity-limited region of WM, with some chunks being only subsets of the presented associative information (e.g., leather brief case retained with leather as one chunk and brief case as another). The addition to the model of an activated long-term memory component unlimited in capacity was needed. A fixed-capacity limit appears critical to account for immediate verbal recognition and other forms of WM. We advance a model-based approach that allows capacity to be assessed despite other important processing contributions. Starting with a psychological-process model of WM capacity developed to understand visual arrays, we arrive at a more unified and complete model. Copyright 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Models of Verbal Working Memory Capacity: What Does It Take to Make Them Work?

PubMed Central

Cowan, Nelson; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Blume, Christopher L.; Saults, J. Scott

2013-01-01

Theories of working memory (WM) capacity limits will be more useful when we know what aspects of performance are governed by the limits and what aspects are governed by other memory mechanisms. Whereas considerable progress has been made on models of WM capacity limits for visual arrays of separate objects, less progress has been made in understanding verbal materials, especially when words are mentally combined to form multi-word units or chunks. Toward a more comprehensive theory of capacity limits, we examine models of forced-choice recognition of words within printed lists, using materials designed to produce multi-word chunks in memory (e.g., leather brief case). Several simple models were tested against data from a variety of list lengths and potential chunk sizes, with test conditions that only imperfectly elicited the inter-word associations. According to the most successful model, participants retained about 3 chunks on average in a capacity-limited region of WM, with some chunks being only subsets of the presented associative information (e.g., leather brief case retained with leather as one chunk and brief case as another). The addition to the model of an activated long-term memory (LTM) component unlimited in capacity was needed. A fixed capacity limit appears critical to account for immediate verbal recognition and other forms of WM. We advance a model-based approach that allows capacity to be assessed despite other important processing contributions. Starting with a psychological-process model of WM capacity developed to understand visual arrays, we arrive at a more unified and complete model. PMID:22486726

Constrained parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity causes significant increase of modelled tropical vegetation surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kattge, J.; Knorr, W.; Raddatz, T.; Wirth, C.

2009-04-01

Photosynthetic capacity is one of the most sensitive parameters of terrestrial biosphere models whose representation in global scale simulations has been severely hampered by a lack of systematic analyses using a sufficiently broad database. Due to its coupling to stomatal conductance changes in the parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity may potentially influence transpiration rates and vegetation surface temperature. Here, we provide a constrained parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity for different plant functional types in the context of the photosynthesis model proposed by Farquhar et al. (1980), based on a comprehensive compilation of leaf photosynthesis rates and leaf nitrogen content. Mean values of photosynthetic capacity were implemented into the coupled climate-vegetation model ECHAM5/JSBACH and modelled gross primary production (GPP) is compared to a compilation of independent observations on stand scale. Compared to the current standard parameterisation the root-mean-squared difference between modelled and observed GPP is substantially reduced for almost all PFTs by the new parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity. We find a systematic depression of NUE (photosynthetic capacity divided by leaf nitrogen content) on certain tropical soils that are known to be deficient in phosphorus. Photosynthetic capacity of tropical trees derived by this study is substantially lower than standard estimates currently used in terrestrial biosphere models. This causes a decrease of modelled GPP while it significantly increases modelled tropical vegetation surface temperatures, up to 0.8°C. These results emphasise the importance of a constrained parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity not only for the carbon cycle, but also for the climate system.

Microwave-superheated Vics Vapo Rub: an ocular public health danger.

PubMed

Fung, Anne E; Oxford, Karen W

2004-02-01

To report a case of a microwave-oven superheated petroleum-based liquid causing severe chemical and thermal ocular burns treated successfully with amniotic membrane transplantation. Observational case report. Retrospective review of clinical case. A 77-year-old woman sustained a severe combined chemical and thermal burn from microwave-heated Vicks Vapo-Rub requiring amniotic membrane transplant, with subsequent development of phacomorphic glaucoma, requiring cataract extraction, and bullous keratopathy, requiring penetrating keratoplasty. As microwave oven use becomes more commonplace, the risk of superheating liquids becomes an increasingly significant ocular danger. Continued efforts to educate the public about safe microwave use is necessary. Additionally, amniotic membrane transplantation was found to be effective in managing a combined chemical and thermal ocular burn.

Customer-oriented Data Formats and Services for Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) Products at the NASA GES DISC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, H.; Kato, H.; Rodell, M.; Teng, W. L.; Vollmer, B. E.

2008-12-01

The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) has been generating a series of land surface state (e.g., soil moisture and surface temperature) and flux (e.g., evaporation and sensible heat flux) products, simulated by four land surface models (CLM, Mosaic, Noah and VIC). These products are now accessible at the Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC), a component of the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). Current GLDAS data hosted at HDISC include a set of 1.0° data products, covering 1979 to the present, from the four models and a 0.25° data product, covering 2000 to the present, from the Noah model. In addition to the basic anonymous ftp data downloading, users can avail themselves of several advanced data search and downloading services, such as Mirador and OPeNDAP. Mirador is a Google-based search tool that provides keywords searching, on-the-fly spatial and parameter subsetting of selected data. OPeNDAP (Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol) enables remote OPeNDAP clients to access OPeNDAP served data regardless of local storage format. Additional data services to be available in the near future from HDISC include (1) on-the-fly converter of GLDAS to NetCDF and binary data formats; (2) temporal aggregation of GLDAS files; and (3) Giovanni, an online visualization and analysis tool that provides a simple way to visualize, analyze, and access vast amounts of data without having to download the data.

Sensitivity of Drought Processes to Runoff Parameterizations in East Asia with the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J. B.; Um, M. J.; Kim, Y.

2016-12-01

Drought is one of the most powerful and extensive disasters and has the highest annual average damage among all the disasters. Focusing on East Asia, where over one fifth of all the people in the world live, drought has impacted as well as been projected to impact the region significantly. .Therefore it is critical to reasonably simulate the drought phenomenon in the region and thus this study would focus on the reproducibility of drought with the NCAR CLM. In this study, we examine the propagation of drought processes with different runoff parameterization of CLM in East Asia. Two different schemes are used; TOPMODEL-based and VIC-based schemes, which differentiate the result of runoff through the surface and subsurface runoff parameterization. CLM with different runoff scheme are driven with two atmospheric forcings from CRU/NCEP and NCEP reanalysis data. Specifically, propagation of drought from meteorological, agricultural to hydrologic drought is investigated with different drought indices, estimated with not only model simulated results but also observational data. The indices include the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), standardized runoff index (SRI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSMI). Based on these indices, the drought characteristics such as intensity, frequency and spatial extent are investigated. At last, such drought assessments would reveal the possible model deficiencies in East Asia. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180.

Stakeholders' views of shared learning models in general practice: a national survey.

PubMed

van de Mortel, Thea; Silberberg, Peter; Ahern, Christine; Pit, Sabrina

2014-09-01

The number of learners requiring general practice placements creates supervisory capacity constraints. This research examined how a shared learning model may affect training capacity. The number of learners requiring general practice placements creates supervisory capacity constraints. This research examined how a shared learning model may affect training capacity. A total of 1122 surveys were completed: 75% of learners had participated in shared learning; 25% of multi-level learner practices were not using shared learning. Learners were positive about shared learning (4.3-4.4/5), considering it an effective way to learn that created training capacity (4.1-4.2/5). 79-88% of learners preferred a mixture of one-to-one teaching and shared learning. Supervisors thought shared learning was more cost- and time-efficient, and created training capacity (4.3-4.4/5). Shared learning models have the potential to increase GP training capacity. Many practices are not utilising shared learning, representing capacity loss. Regional training providers should emphasise positive aspects of shared learning to facilitate uptake.

Theories, models and frameworks used in capacity building interventions relevant to public health: a systematic review.

PubMed

Bergeron, Kim; Abdi, Samiya; DeCorby, Kara; Mensah, Gloria; Rempel, Benjamin; Manson, Heather

2017-11-28

There is limited research on capacity building interventions that include theoretical foundations. The purpose of this systematic review is to identify underlying theories, models and frameworks used to support capacity building interventions relevant to public health practice. The aim is to inform and improve capacity building practices and services offered by public health organizations. Four search strategies were used: 1) electronic database searching; 2) reference lists of included papers; 3) key informant consultation; and 4) grey literature searching. Inclusion and exclusion criteria are outlined with included papers focusing on capacity building, learning plans, professional development plans in combination with tools, resources, processes, procedures, steps, model, framework, guideline, described in a public health or healthcare setting, or non-government, government, or community organizations as they relate to healthcare, and explicitly or implicitly mention a theory, model and/or framework that grounds the type of capacity building approach developed. Quality assessment were performed on all included articles. Data analysis included a process for synthesizing, analyzing and presenting descriptive summaries, categorizing theoretical foundations according to which theory, model and/or framework was used and whether or not the theory, model or framework was implied or explicitly identified. Nineteen articles were included in this review. A total of 28 theories, models and frameworks were identified. Of this number, two theories (Diffusion of Innovations and Transformational Learning), two models (Ecological and Interactive Systems Framework for Dissemination and Implementation) and one framework (Bloom's Taxonomy of Learning) were identified as the most frequently cited. This review identifies specific theories, models and frameworks to support capacity building interventions relevant to public health organizations. It provides public health practitioners with a menu of potentially usable theories, models and frameworks to support capacity building efforts. The findings also support the need for the use of theories, models or frameworks to be intentional, explicitly identified, referenced and for it to be clearly outlined how they were applied to the capacity building intervention.

The End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision making in the water sector in Europe (EDgE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Eric; Wanders, Niko; Pan, Ming; Sheffield, Justin; Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohinni; Prudhomme, Christel; Houghton-Carr, Helen

2017-04-01

High-resolution simulations of water resources from hydrological models are vital to supporting important climate services. Apart from a high level of detail, both spatially and temporally, it is important to provide simulations that consistently cover a range of timescales, from historical reanalysis to seasonal forecast and future projections. In the new EDgE project commissioned by the ECMWF (C3S) we try to fulfill these requirements. EDgE is a proof-of-concept project which combines climate data and state-of-the-art hydrological modelling to demonstrate a water-oriented information system implemented through a web application. EDgE is working with key European stakeholders representative of private and public sectors to jointly develop and tailor approaches and techniques. With these tools, stakeholders are assisted in using improved climate information in decision-making, and supported in the development of climate change adaptation and mitigation policies. Here, we present the first results of the EDgE modelling chain, which is divided into three main processes: 1) pre-processing and downscaling; 2) hydrological modelling; 3) post-processing. Consistent downscaling and bias corrections for historical simulations, seasonal forecasts and climate projections ensure that the results across scales are robust. The daily temporal resolution and 5km spatial resolution ensure locally relevant simulations. With the use of four hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, VIC, mHM, Noah-MP), uncertainty between models is properly addressed, while consistency is guaranteed by using identical input data for static land surface parameterizations. The forecast results are communicated to stakeholders via Sectoral Climate Impact Indicators (SCIIs) that have been created in collaboration with the end-user community of the EDgE project. The final product of this project is composed of 15 years of seasonal forecast and 10 climate change projections, all combined with four hydrological models. These unique high-resolution climate information simulations in the EDgE project provide an unprecedented information system for decision-making over Europe.

Converting HAZUS capacity curves to seismic hazard-compatible building fragility functions: effect of hysteretic models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryu, Hyeuk; Luco, Nicolas; Baker, Jack W.; Karaca, Erdem

2008-01-01

A methodology was recently proposed for the development of hazard-compatible building fragility models using parameters of capacity curves and damage state thresholds from HAZUS (Karaca and Luco, 2008). In the methodology, HAZUS curvilinear capacity curves were used to define nonlinear dynamic SDOF models that were subjected to the nonlinear time history analysis instead of the capacity spectrum method. In this study, we construct a multilinear capacity curve with negative stiffness after an ultimate (capping) point for the nonlinear time history analysis, as an alternative to the curvilinear model provided in HAZUS. As an illustration, here we propose parameter values of the multilinear capacity curve for a moderate-code low-rise steel moment resisting frame building (labeled S1L in HAZUS). To determine the final parameter values, we perform nonlinear time history analyses of SDOF systems with various parameter values and investigate their effects on resulting fragility functions through sensitivity analysis. The findings improve capacity curves and thereby fragility and/or vulnerability models for generic types of structures.

Measurement and assessment of carrying capacity of the environment in Ningbo, China.

PubMed

Liu, R Z; Borthwick, Alistair G L

2011-08-01

Carrying Capacity of the Environment (CCE) provides a useful measure of the sustainable development of a region. Approaches that use integrated assessment instead of measurement can lead to misinterpretation of sustainable development because of confusion between Environmental Stress (ES) indexes and CCE indexes, and the selection of over-simple linear plus models. The present paper proposes a comprehensive measurement system for CCE which comprises models of natural resources capacity, environmental assimilative capacity, ecosystem services capacity, and society supporting capacity. The corresponding measurable indexes are designed to assess CCE using a carrying capacity surplus ratio model and a vector of surplus ratio of carrying capacity model. The former aims at direct comparison of ES and CCE based on the values of basic indexes, and the latter uses a Euclidean vector to assess CCE states. The measurement and assessment approaches are applicable to Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and environmental planning and management. A case study is presented for Ningbo, China, whereby all the basic indexes of ECC are measured and the CCE states assessed for 2005 and 2010. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the effect of bus stops on capacity of curb lane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Qingyu; Zheng, Tianyao; Wu, Wenjing; Jia, Hongfei; Li, Jin

With the increase of buses and bus lines, a negative effect on road section capacity is made by the prolonged delay and queuing time at bus stops. However, existing methods of measuring the negative effect pay little attention to different bus stop types in the curb lanes. This paper uses Gap theory and Queuing theory to build models for effect-time and potential capacity in different conditions, including curbside bus stops, bus bays with overflow and bus bays without overflow. In order to make the effect-time models accurate and reliable, two types of probabilities are introduced. One is the probability that the dwell time is less than the headway of curb lane at curbside bus stops; the other is the overflow probability at bus bays. Based on the fundamental road capacity model and effect-time models, potential capacity models of curb lane are designed. The new models are calibrated by the survey data from Changchun City, and verified by the simulation software of VISSIM. Furthermore, with different arrival rates of vehicles, the setting conditions of bus stops are researched. Results show that the potential capacity models have high precision. They can offer a reference for recognizing the effect of bus stops on the capacity of curb lane, which can provide a basis for planning, design and management of urban roads and bus stops.

A Model for Strengthening Collaborative Research Capacity: Illustrations From the Atlanta Clinical Translational Science Institute.

PubMed

Rodgers, Kirsten C; Akintobi, Tabia; Thompson, Winifred Wilkins; Evans, Donoria; Escoffery, Cam; Kegler, Michelle C

2014-06-01

Community-engaged research is effective in addressing health disparities but may present challenges for both academic institutions and community partners. Therefore, the need to build capacity for conducting collaborative research exists. The purpose of this study is to present a model for building research capacity in academic-community partnerships. The Building Collaborative Research Capacity Model was developed as part of the Community Engagement Research Program (CERP) of the Atlanta Clinical and Translational Science Institute (ACTSI). Six domains of collaborative research capacity were identified and used to develop a model. Inputs, activities, outputs, and outcomes of building collaborative research capacity are described. To test this model, a competitive request for applications was widely distributed and four community-based organizations were funded to participate in a 2-year program with the aim of conducting a pilot study and submitting a research proposal for funding to National Institutes of Health or another major funding agency. During the first year, the community-based organization partners were trained on conducting collaborative research and matched with an academic partner from an ACTSI institution. Three of the academic-community partnerships submitted pilot study results and two submitted a grant proposal to a national agency. The Building Collaborative Research Capacity Model is an innovative approach to strengthening academic-community partnerships. This model will help build needed research capacity, serve as a framework for academicians and community partners, and lead to sustainable partnerships that improve community health. © 2013 Society for Public Health Education.

Estimating the Effects of the Terminal Area Productivity Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, David A.; Kostiuk, Peter F.; Hemm, Robert V., Jr.; Wingrove, Earl R., III; Shapiro, Gerald

1997-01-01

The report describes methods and results of an analysis of the technical and economic benefits of the systems to be developed in the NASA Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) program. A runway capacity model using parameters that reflect the potential impact of the TAP technologies is described. The runway capacity model feeds airport specific models which are also described. The capacity estimates are used with a queuing model to calculate aircraft delays, and TAP benefits are determined by calculating the savings due to reduced delays. The report includes benefit estimates for Boston Logan and Detroit Wayne County airports. An appendix includes a description and listing of the runway capacity model.

Capacity expansion model of wind power generation based on ELCC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Bo; Zong, Jin; Wu, Shengyu

2018-02-01

Capacity expansion is an indispensable prerequisite for power system planning and construction. A reasonable, efficient and accurate capacity expansion model (CEM) is crucial to power system planning. In most current CEMs, the capacity of wind power generation is considered as boundary conditions instead of decision variables, which may lead to curtailment or over construction of flexible resource, especially at a high renewable energy penetration scenario. This paper proposed a wind power generation capacity value(CV) calculation method based on effective load-carrying capability, and a CEM that co-optimizes wind power generation and conventional power sources. Wind power generation is considered as decision variable in this model, and the model can accurately reflect the uncertainty nature of wind power.

Determining if an older adult can make and execute decisions to live safely at home: a capacity assessment and intervention model

PubMed Central

Skelton, Felicia; Kunik, Mark E.; Regev, Tziona; Naik, Aanand D.

2009-01-01

Determining an older adult’s capacity to live safely and independently in the community presents a serious and complicated challenge to the health care system. Evaluating one’s ability to make and execute decisions regarding safe and independent living incorporates clinical assessments, bioethical considerations, and often legal declarations of capacity. Capacity assessments usually result in life changes for patients and their families, including a caregiver managing some everyday tasks, placement outside of the home, and even legal guardianship. The process of determining capacity and recommending intervention is often inefficient and highly variable in most cases. Physicians are rarely trained to conduct capacity assessments and assessment methods are heterogeneous. An interdisciplinary team of clinicians developed the capacity assessment and intervention (CAI) model at a community outpatient geriatrics clinic to address these critical gaps. This report follows one patient through the entire CAI model, describing processes for a typical case. It then examines two additional case reports that highlight common challenges in capacity assessment. The CAI model uses assessment methods common to geriatrics clinical practice and conducts assessments and interventions in a standardized fashion. Reliance on common, validated measures increases generalizability of the model across geriatrics practice settings and patient populations. PMID:19481271

Capacity Model and Constraints Analysis for Integrated Remote Wireless Sensor and Satellite Network in Emergency Scenarios

PubMed Central

Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Gengxin; Dong, Feihong; Xie, Zhidong; Bian, Dongming

2015-01-01

This article investigates the capacity problem of an integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network (IWSSN) in emergency scenarios. We formulate a general model to evaluate the remote sensor and satellite network capacity. Compared to most existing works for ground networks, the proposed model is time varying and space oriented. To capture the characteristics of a practical network, we sift through major capacity-impacting constraints and analyze the influence of these constraints. Specifically, we combine the geometric satellite orbit model and satellite tool kit (STK) engineering software to quantify the trends of the capacity constraints. Our objective in analyzing these trends is to provide insights and design guidelines for optimizing the integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network schedules. Simulation results validate the theoretical analysis of capacity trends and show the optimization opportunities of the IWSSN. PMID:26593919

Capacity Model and Constraints Analysis for Integrated Remote Wireless Sensor and Satellite Network in Emergency Scenarios.

PubMed

Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Gengxin; Dong, Feihong; Xie, Zhidong; Bian, Dongming

2015-11-17

This article investigates the capacity problem of an integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network (IWSSN) in emergency scenarios. We formulate a general model to evaluate the remote sensor and satellite network capacity. Compared to most existing works for ground networks, the proposed model is time varying and space oriented. To capture the characteristics of a practical network, we sift through major capacity-impacting constraints and analyze the influence of these constraints. Specifically, we combine the geometric satellite orbit model and satellite tool kit (STK) engineering software to quantify the trends of the capacity constraints. Our objective in analyzing these trends is to provide insights and design guidelines for optimizing the integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network schedules. Simulation results validate the theoretical analysis of capacity trends and show the optimization opportunities of the IWSSN.