Nonlinear Interactions between Climate and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Drivers of Terrestrial and Marine Carbon Cycle Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, F. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Moore, J. K.; Goulden, M.; Fu, W.; Koven, C.; Swann, A. L. S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Lindsay, K. T.; Munoz, E.

2017-12-01

Quantifying interactions between global biogeochemical cycles and the Earth system is important for predicting future atmospheric composition and informing energy policy. We applied a feedback analysis framework to three sets of Historical (1850-2005), Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (2006-2100), and its extension (2101-2300) simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1(BGC)) to quantify drivers of terrestrial and ocean responses of carbon uptake. In the biogeochemically coupled simulation (BGC), the effects of CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition influenced marine and terrestrial carbon cycling. In the radiatively coupled simulation (RAD), the effects of rising temperature and circulation changes due to radiative forcing from CO2, other greenhouse gases, and aerosols were the sole drivers of carbon cycle changes. In the third, fully coupled simulation (FC), both the biogeochemical and radiative coupling effects acted simultaneously. We found that climate-carbon sensitivities derived from RAD simulations produced a net ocean carbon storage climate sensitivity that was weaker and a net land carbon storage climate sensitivity that was stronger than those diagnosed from the FC and BGC simulations. For the ocean, this nonlinearity was associated with warming-induced weakening of ocean circulation and mixing that limited exchange of dissolved inorganic carbon between surface and deeper water masses. For the land, this nonlinearity was associated with strong gains in gross primary production in the FC simulation, driven by enhancements in the hydrological cycle and increased nutrient availability. We developed and applied a nonlinearity metric to rank model responses and driver variables. The climate-carbon cycle feedback gain at 2300 was 42% higher when estimated from climate-carbon sensitivities derived from the difference between FC and BGC than when derived from RAD. We re-analyzed other CMIP5 model results to quantify the effects of such nonlinearities on their projected climate-carbon cycle feedback gains.

Hydrological and biogeochemical constraints on terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mystakidis, Stefanos; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Gruber, Nicolas; Davin, Edouard L.

2017-01-01

The feedbacks between climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration and the terrestrial carbon cycle are a major source of uncertainty in future climate projections with Earth systems models. Here, we use observation-based estimates of the interannual variations in evapotranspiration (ET), net biome productivity (NBP), as well as the present-day sensitivity of NBP to climate variations, to constrain globally the terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks as simulated by models that participated in the fifth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5). The constraints result in a ca. 40% lower response of NBP to climate change and a ca. 30% reduction in the strength of the CO2 fertilization effect relative to the unconstrained multi-model mean. While the unconstrained CMIP5 models suggest an increase in the cumulative terrestrial carbon storage (477 PgC) in response to an idealized scenario of 1%/year atmospheric CO2 increase, the constraints imply a ca. 19% smaller change. Overall, the applied emerging constraint approach offers a possibility to reduce uncertainties in the projections of the terrestrial carbon cycle, which is a key determinant of the future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentration and resulting climate change.

The Effects of Climate Sensitivity and Carbon Cycle Interactions on Mitigation Policy Stringency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calvin, Katherine V.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Edmonds, James A.

2015-07-01

Climate sensitivity and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks interact to determine how global carbon and energy cycles will change in the future. While the science of these connections is well documented, their economic implications are not well understood. Here we examine the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle, the uncertainty in climate outcomes inherent in any given policy target, and the economic implications. We examine three policy scenarios—a no policy “Reference” (REF) scenario, and two policies that limit total radiative forcing—with four climate sensitivities using a coupled integrated assessment model. Like previous work, we find that, within a given scenario,more » there is a wide range of temperature change and sea level rise depending on the realized climate sensitivity. We expand on this previous work to show that temperature-related feedbacks on the carbon cycle result in more mitigation required as climate sensitivity increases. Thus, achieving a particular radiative forcing target becomes increasingly expensive as climate sensitivity increases.« less

Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models

Treesearch

W. R. L. Anderegg; C. Schwalm; F. Biondi; J. J. Camarero; G. Koch; M. Litvak; K. Ogle; J. D. Shaw; E. Shevliakova; A. P. Williams; A. Wolf; E. Ziaco; S. Pacala

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but important for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with the understanding of basic plant physiology. We examined the recovery of...

Effect of increasing CO2 on the terrestrial carbon cycle

PubMed Central

Schimel, David; Fisher, Joshua B.

2015-01-01

Feedbacks from the terrestrial carbon cycle significantly affect future climate change. The CO2 concentration dependence of global terrestrial carbon storage is one of the largest and most uncertain feedbacks. Theory predicts the CO2 effect should have a tropical maximum, but a large terrestrial sink has been contradicted by analyses of atmospheric CO2 that do not show large tropical uptake. Our results, however, show significant tropical uptake and, combining tropical and extratropical fluxes, suggest that up to 60% of the present-day terrestrial sink is caused by increasing atmospheric CO2. This conclusion is consistent with a validated subset of atmospheric analyses, but uncertainty remains. Improved model diagnostics and new space-based observations can reduce the uncertainty of tropical and temperate zone carbon flux estimates. This analysis supports a significant feedback to future atmospheric CO2 concentrations from carbon uptake in terrestrial ecosystems caused by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This feedback will have substantial tropical contributions, but the magnitude of future carbon uptake by tropical forests also depends on how they respond to climate change and requires their protection from deforestation. PMID:25548156

The biomass burning contribution to climate-carbon-cycle feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Sandy P.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Brovkin, Victor; Houweling, Sander; Kloster, Silvia; Prentice, I. Colin

2018-05-01

Temperature exerts strong controls on the incidence and severity of fire. All else equal, warming is expected to increase fire-related carbon emissions, and thereby atmospheric CO2. But the magnitude of this feedback is very poorly known. We use a single-box model of the land biosphere to quantify this positive feedback from satellite-based estimates of biomass burning emissions for 2000-2014 CE and from sedimentary charcoal records for the millennium before the industrial period. We derive an estimate of the centennial-scale feedback strength of 6.5 ± 3.4 ppm CO2 per degree of land temperature increase, based on the satellite data. However, this estimate is poorly constrained, and is largely driven by the well-documented dependence of tropical deforestation and peat fires (primarily anthropogenic) on climate variability patterns linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Palaeo-data from pre-industrial times provide the opportunity to assess the fire-related climate-carbon-cycle feedback over a longer period, with less pervasive human impacts. Past biomass burning can be quantified based on variations in either the concentration and isotopic composition of methane in ice cores (with assumptions about the isotopic signatures of different methane sources) or the abundances of charcoal preserved in sediments, which reflect landscape-scale changes in burnt biomass. These two data sources are shown here to be coherent with one another. The more numerous data from sedimentary charcoal, expressed as normalized anomalies (fractional deviations from the long-term mean), are then used - together with an estimate of mean biomass burning derived from methane isotope data - to infer a feedback strength of 5.6 ± 3.2 ppm CO2 per degree of land temperature and (for a climate sensitivity of 2.8 K) a gain of 0.09 ± 0.05. This finding indicates that the positive carbon cycle feedback from increased fire provides a substantial contribution to the overall climate-carbon-cycle feedback on centennial timescales. Although the feedback estimates from palaeo- and satellite-era data are in agreement, this is likely fortuitous because of the pervasive influence of human activities on fire regimes during recent decades.

Microbial contributions to climate change through carbon cycle feedbacks.

PubMed

Bardgett, Richard D; Freeman, Chris; Ostle, Nicholas J

2008-08-01

There is considerable interest in understanding the biological mechanisms that regulate carbon exchanges between the land and atmosphere, and how these exchanges respond to climate change. An understanding of soil microbial ecology is central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedbacks, but the complexity of the soil microbial community and the many ways that it can be affected by climate and other global changes hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions on this topic. In this paper, we argue that to understand the potential negative and positive contributions of soil microbes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange and global warming requires explicit consideration of both direct and indirect impacts of climate change on microorganisms. Moreover, we argue that this requires consideration of complex interactions and feedbacks that occur between microbes, plants and their physical environment in the context of climate change, and the influence of other global changes which have the capacity to amplify climate-driven effects on soil microbes. Overall, we emphasize the urgent need for greater understanding of how soil microbial ecology contributes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange in the context of climate change, and identify some challenges for the future. In particular, we highlight the need for a multifactor experimental approach to understand how soil microbes and their activities respond to climate change and consequences for carbon cycle feedbacks.

Glacial weathering, sulfide oxidation, and global carbon cycle feedbacks.

PubMed

Torres, Mark A; Moosdorf, Nils; Hartmann, Jens; Adkins, Jess F; West, A Joshua

2017-08-15

Connections between glaciation, chemical weathering, and the global carbon cycle could steer the evolution of global climate over geologic time, but even the directionality of feedbacks in this system remain to be resolved. Here, we assemble a compilation of hydrochemical data from glacierized catchments, use this data to evaluate the dominant chemical reactions associated with glacial weathering, and explore the implications for long-term geochemical cycles. Weathering yields from catchments in our compilation are higher than the global average, which results, in part, from higher runoff in glaciated catchments. Our analysis supports the theory that glacial weathering is characterized predominantly by weathering of trace sulfide and carbonate minerals. To evaluate the effects of glacial weathering on atmospheric pCO 2 , we use a solute mixing model to predict the ratio of alkalinity to dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) generated by weathering reactions. Compared with nonglacial weathering, glacial weathering is more likely to yield alkalinity/DIC ratios less than 1, suggesting that enhanced sulfide oxidation as a result of glaciation may act as a source of CO 2 to the atmosphere. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that oxidative fluxes could change ocean-atmosphere CO 2 equilibrium by 25 ppm or more over 10 ky. Over longer timescales, CO 2 release could act as a negative feedback, limiting progress of glaciation, dependent on lithology and the concentration of atmospheric O 2 Future work on glaciation-weathering-carbon cycle feedbacks should consider weathering of trace sulfide minerals in addition to silicate minerals.

Glacial weathering, sulfide oxidation, and global carbon cycle feedbacks

PubMed Central

Torres, Mark A.; Moosdorf, Nils; Hartmann, Jens; Adkins, Jess F.

2017-01-01

Connections between glaciation, chemical weathering, and the global carbon cycle could steer the evolution of global climate over geologic time, but even the directionality of feedbacks in this system remain to be resolved. Here, we assemble a compilation of hydrochemical data from glacierized catchments, use this data to evaluate the dominant chemical reactions associated with glacial weathering, and explore the implications for long-term geochemical cycles. Weathering yields from catchments in our compilation are higher than the global average, which results, in part, from higher runoff in glaciated catchments. Our analysis supports the theory that glacial weathering is characterized predominantly by weathering of trace sulfide and carbonate minerals. To evaluate the effects of glacial weathering on atmospheric pCO2, we use a solute mixing model to predict the ratio of alkalinity to dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) generated by weathering reactions. Compared with nonglacial weathering, glacial weathering is more likely to yield alkalinity/DIC ratios less than 1, suggesting that enhanced sulfide oxidation as a result of glaciation may act as a source of CO2 to the atmosphere. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that oxidative fluxes could change ocean–atmosphere CO2 equilibrium by 25 ppm or more over 10 ky. Over longer timescales, CO2 release could act as a negative feedback, limiting progress of glaciation, dependent on lithology and the concentration of atmospheric O2. Future work on glaciation–weathering–carbon cycle feedbacks should consider weathering of trace sulfide minerals in addition to silicate minerals. PMID:28760954

Influence of dynamic vegetation on carbon-nitrogen cycle feedback in the Community Land Model (CLM4)

DOE PAGES

Sakaguchi, K.; Zeng, X.; Leung, L. R.; ...

2016-12-21

Land carbon sensitivity to atmospheric CO 2 concentration (β L) and climate warming (γ L) is a crucial part of carbon-climate feedbacks in the earth system. Using the Community Land Model version 4 with a coupled carbon-nitrogen cycle, we examine whether the inclusion of a dynamic global vegetation model (CNDV) significantly changes the land carbon sensitivity from that obtained with prescribed vegetation cover (CN). For decadal timescale in the late twentieth century, β L is not substantially different between the two models but γ L of CNDV is stronger (more negative) than that of CN. The main reason for themore » difference in γL is not the concurrent change in vegetation cover driving the carbon dynamics, but rather the smaller nitrogen constraint on plant growth in CNDV compared with CN, which arises from the deviation of CNDV's near-equilibrium vegetation distribution from CN’s prescribed, historical land cover. The smaller nitrogen constraint makes the enhanced nitrogen mineralization with warming less effective in stimulating plant productivity to counter moisture stress in a warmer climate, leading to a more negative γ L. This represents a new indirect pathway that has not been identified for dynamic vegetation in the coupled carbon-nitrogen cycle to affect the terrestrial carbon-climate feedbacks in the earth system.« less

Influence of dynamic vegetation on carbon-nitrogen cycle feedback in the Community Land Model (CLM4)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sakaguchi, K.; Zeng, X.; Leung, L. R.

Land carbon sensitivity to atmospheric CO 2 concentration (β L) and climate warming (γ L) is a crucial part of carbon-climate feedbacks in the earth system. Using the Community Land Model version 4 with a coupled carbon-nitrogen cycle, we examine whether the inclusion of a dynamic global vegetation model (CNDV) significantly changes the land carbon sensitivity from that obtained with prescribed vegetation cover (CN). For decadal timescale in the late twentieth century, β L is not substantially different between the two models but γ L of CNDV is stronger (more negative) than that of CN. The main reason for themore » difference in γL is not the concurrent change in vegetation cover driving the carbon dynamics, but rather the smaller nitrogen constraint on plant growth in CNDV compared with CN, which arises from the deviation of CNDV's near-equilibrium vegetation distribution from CN’s prescribed, historical land cover. The smaller nitrogen constraint makes the enhanced nitrogen mineralization with warming less effective in stimulating plant productivity to counter moisture stress in a warmer climate, leading to a more negative γ L. This represents a new indirect pathway that has not been identified for dynamic vegetation in the coupled carbon-nitrogen cycle to affect the terrestrial carbon-climate feedbacks in the earth system.« less

When could global warming reach 4°C?

PubMed

Betts, Richard A; Collins, Matthew; Hemming, Deborah L; Jones, Chris D; Lowe, Jason A; Sanderson, Michael G

2011-01-13

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political attention is focused on the potential for global warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, the AR4 projections clearly suggest that much greater levels of warming are possible by the end of the twenty-first century in the absence of mitigation. The centre of the range of AR4-projected global warming was approximately 4°C. The higher end of the projected warming was associated with the higher emissions scenarios and models, which included stronger carbon-cycle feedbacks. The highest emissions scenario considered in the AR4 (scenario A1FI) was not examined with complex general circulation models (GCMs) in the AR4, and similarly the uncertainties in climate-carbon-cycle feedbacks were not included in the main set of GCMs. Consequently, the projections of warming for A1FI and/or with different strengths of carbon-cycle feedbacks are often not included in a wider discussion of the AR4 conclusions. While it is still too early to say whether any particular scenario is being tracked by current emissions, A1FI is considered to be as plausible as other non-mitigation scenarios and cannot be ruled out. (A1FI is a part of the A1 family of scenarios, with 'FI' standing for 'fossil intensive'. This is sometimes erroneously written as A1F1, with number 1 instead of letter I.) This paper presents simulations of climate change with an ensemble of GCMs driven by the A1FI scenario, and also assesses the implications of carbon-cycle feedbacks for the climate-change projections. Using these GCM projections along with simple climate-model projections, including uncertainties in carbon-cycle feedbacks, and also comparing against other model projections from the IPCC, our best estimate is that the A1FI emissions scenario would lead to a warming of 4°C relative to pre-industrial during the 2070s. If carbon-cycle feedbacks are stronger, which appears less likely but still credible, then 4°C warming could be reached by the early 2060s in projections that are consistent with the IPCC's 'likely range'.

Global warming and ocean acidification through halted weathering feedback during the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Ploeg, R.; Selby, D. S.; Cramwinckel, M.; Bohaty, S. M.; Sluijs, A.; Middelburg, J. J.

2016-12-01

The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) represents a 500 kyr period of global warming 40 million years ago associated with a rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but its cause remains enigmatic. Moreover, on the timescale of the MECO, an increase in silicate weathering rates on the continents is expected to balance carbon input and restore the alkalinity of the oceans, but this is in sharp disagreement with observations of extensive carbonate dissolution. Here we show, based on osmium isotope ratios of marine sediments from three different sites, that CO2 rise and warming did not lead to enhanced continental weathering during the MECO, in contrast to expectations from carbon cycle theory. Remarkably, a minor shift to lower, more unradiogenic osmium isotope ratios rather indicates an episode of increased volcanism or reduced continental weathering. This disproves silicate weathering as a geologically constant feedback to CO2 variations. Rather, we suggest that global Early and Middle Eocene warmth diminished the weatherability of continental rocks, ultimately leading to CO2 accumulation during the MECO, and show the plausibility of this scenario using carbon cycle modeling simulations. We surmise a dynamic weathering feedback might explain multiple enigmatic phases of coupled climate and carbon cycle change in the Cretaceous and Cenozoic.

The role of pCO2 in astronomically-paced climate and carbon cycle variations in the Middle Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penman, D. E.; Hull, P. M.; Scher, H.; Kirtland Turner, S.; Ridgwell, A.

2017-12-01

The pace of Earth's background climate variability is known to be driven by the Milankovitch cycles, variations in Earth's orbital parameters and axial tilt. While the Milankovitch (orbital) theory of climate change is very nearly universally accepted, the climate system mechanisms and feedbacks responsible for amplifying orbital cycles preserved in the geologic record remain uncertain. For the late Pleistocene, the ice core-derived record of atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) is strongly coupled with global temperature on orbital time scales, indicating that internal feedbacks involving the carbon cycle amplify or even cause the large changes in global temperature during orbitally driven glacial-interglacial cycles. However, for earlier time periods beyond the range of ice cores (the last 800 kyr), it is not possible to directly compare records of pCO2 to orbital climate cycles because there are no high-resolution (orbitally resolved) records of pCO2 before the Pliocene. We address this deficiency with a high-resolution ( 5-10 kyr spacing) record of planktonic foraminiferal d11B-derived surface seawater pH (as well as d13C and trace metal analyses) over a 500 kyr time window in a sedimentary record with known Milankovitch-scale climate and carbon cycle oscillations: the Middle Miocene (14.0 - 14.5 Ma) at ODP Site 926 (subtropical North Atlantic). The resulting pH record can be used to constrain atmospheric pCO2, allowing comparison of the timescale and magnitude of carbon cycle changes during a period of eccentricity-dominated variability in the response of the global climate system (the Late Pleistocene) with a period of obliquity-dominance (the middle Miocene). These new records of planktic d11B and d13C will then be used to guide simulations of astronomical climate forcing in Earth System models, resulting in refined estimates of pCO2 changes over orbital cycles and providing quantitative constraints on the mechanisms and feedbacks responsible for the Milankovitch control of climate and carbon cycling.

Warming reduces carbon losses from grassland exposed to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide.

PubMed

Pendall, Elise; Heisler-White, Jana L; Williams, David G; Dijkstra, Feike A; Carrillo, Yolima; Morgan, Jack A; Lecain, Daniel R

2013-01-01

The flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere may ameliorate or exacerbate climate change, depending on the relative responses of ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration to warming temperatures, rising atmospheric CO2, and altered precipitation. The combined effect of these global change factors is especially uncertain because of their potential for interactions and indirectly mediated conditions such as soil moisture. Here, we present observations of CO2 fluxes from a multi-factor experiment in semi-arid grassland that suggests a potentially strong climate - carbon cycle feedback under combined elevated [CO2] and warming. Elevated [CO2] alone, and in combination with warming, enhanced ecosystem respiration to a greater extent than photosynthesis, resulting in net C loss over four years. The effect of warming was to reduce respiration especially during years of below-average precipitation, by partially offsetting the effect of elevated [CO2] on soil moisture and C cycling. Carbon losses were explained partly by stimulated decomposition of soil organic matter with elevated [CO2]. The climate - carbon cycle feedback observed in this semiarid grassland was mediated by soil water content, which was reduced by warming and increased by elevated [CO2]. Ecosystem models should incorporate direct and indirect effects of climate change on soil water content in order to accurately predict terrestrial feedbacks and long-term storage of C in soil.

Warming Reduces Carbon Losses from Grassland Exposed to Elevated Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

PubMed Central

Pendall, Elise; Heisler-White, Jana L.; Williams, David G.; Dijkstra, Feike A.; Carrillo, Yolima; Morgan, Jack A.; LeCain, Daniel R.

2013-01-01

The flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere may ameliorate or exacerbate climate change, depending on the relative responses of ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration to warming temperatures, rising atmospheric CO2, and altered precipitation. The combined effect of these global change factors is especially uncertain because of their potential for interactions and indirectly mediated conditions such as soil moisture. Here, we present observations of CO2 fluxes from a multi-factor experiment in semi-arid grassland that suggests a potentially strong climate – carbon cycle feedback under combined elevated [CO2] and warming. Elevated [CO2] alone, and in combination with warming, enhanced ecosystem respiration to a greater extent than photosynthesis, resulting in net C loss over four years. The effect of warming was to reduce respiration especially during years of below-average precipitation, by partially offsetting the effect of elevated [CO2] on soil moisture and C cycling. Carbon losses were explained partly by stimulated decomposition of soil organic matter with elevated [CO2]. The climate – carbon cycle feedback observed in this semiarid grassland was mediated by soil water content, which was reduced by warming and increased by elevated [CO2]. Ecosystem models should incorporate direct and indirect effects of climate change on soil water content in order to accurately predict terrestrial feedbacks and long-term storage of C in soil. PMID:23977180

CARVE: The Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Charles E.; Dinardo, Steven J.

2012-01-01

The Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) is a NASA Earth Ventures (EV-1) investigation designed to quantify correlations between atmospheric and surface state variables for the Alaskan terrestrial ecosystems through intensive seasonal aircraft campaigns, ground-based observations, and analysis sustained over a 5-year mission. CARVE bridges critical gaps in our knowledge and understanding of Arctic ecosystems, linkages between the Arctic hydrologic and terrestrial carbon cycles, and the feedbacks from fires and thawing permafrost. CARVE's objectives are to: (1) Directly test hypotheses attributing the mobilization of vulnerable Arctic carbon reservoirs to climate warming; (2) Deliver the first direct measurements and detailed maps of CO2 and CH4 sources on regional scales in the Alaskan Arctic; and (3) Demonstrate new remote sensing and modeling capabilities to quantify feedbacks between carbon fluxes and carbon cycle-climate processes in the Arctic (Figure 1). We describe the investigation design and results from 2011 test flights in Alaska.

Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahowald, Natalie; Rothenberg, D.; Lindsay, Keith

2011-02-01

Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries) and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climatemore » feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.« less

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

2012-09-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real world climate sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the uppper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present day observables and future changes while the large spread of future projected changes, highlights the ongoing need for such work.

Terrestrial carbon turnover time constraints on future carbon cycle-climate feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, N.; Carvalhais, N.; Reichstein, M.

2017-12-01

Understanding the terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedback is essential to reduce the uncertainties resulting from the between model spread in prognostic simulations (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). One perspective is to investigate which factors control the variability of the mean residence times of carbon in the land surface, and how these may change in the future, consequently affecting the response of the terrestrial ecosystems to changes in climate as well as other environmental conditions. Carbon turnover time of the whole ecosystem is a dynamic parameter that represents how fast the carbon cycle circulates. Turnover time τ is an essential property for understanding the carbon exchange between the land and the atmosphere. Although current Earth System Models (ESMs), supported by GVMs for the description of the land surface, show a strong convergence in GPP estimates, but tend to show a wide range of simulated turnover times (Carvalhais, 2014). Thus, there is an emergent need of constraints on the projected response of the balance between terrestrial carbon fluxes and carbon stock which will give us more certainty in response of carbon cycle to climate change. However, the difficulty of obtaining such a constraint is partly due to lack of observational data on temporal change of terrestrial carbon stock. Since more new datasets of carbon stocks such as SoilGrid (Hengl, et al., 2017) and fluxes such as GPP (Jung, et al., 2017) are available, improvement in estimating turnover time can be achieved. In addition, previous study ignored certain aspects such as the relationship between τ and nutrients, fires, etc. We would like to investigate τ and its role in carbon cycle by combining observatinoal derived datasets and state-of-the-art model simulations.

Global covariation of carbon turnover times with climate in terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Carvalhais, Nuno; Forkel, Matthias; Khomik, Myroslava; Bellarby, Jessica; Jung, Martin; Migliavacca, Mirco; Mu, Mingquan; Saatchi, Sassan; Santoro, Maurizio; Thurner, Martin; Weber, Ulrich; Ahrens, Bernhard; Beer, Christian; Cescatti, Alessandro; Randerson, James T; Reichstein, Markus

2014-10-09

The response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to climate change is among the largest uncertainties affecting future climate change projections. The feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate is partly determined by changes in the turnover time of carbon in land ecosystems, which in turn is an ecosystem property that emerges from the interplay between climate, soil and vegetation type. Here we present a global, spatially explicit and observation-based assessment of whole-ecosystem carbon turnover times that combines new estimates of vegetation and soil organic carbon stocks and fluxes. We find that the overall mean global carbon turnover time is 23(+7)(-4) years (95 per cent confidence interval). On average, carbon resides in the vegetation and soil near the Equator for a shorter time than at latitudes north of 75° north (mean turnover times of 15 and 255 years, respectively). We identify a clear dependence of the turnover time on temperature, as expected from our present understanding of temperature controls on ecosystem dynamics. Surprisingly, our analysis also reveals a similarly strong association between turnover time and precipitation. Moreover, we find that the ecosystem carbon turnover times simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate/carbon-cycle models vary widely and that numerical simulations, on average, tend to underestimate the global carbon turnover time by 36 per cent. The models show stronger spatial relationships with temperature than do observation-based estimates, but generally do not reproduce the strong relationships with precipitation and predict faster carbon turnover in many semi-arid regions. Our findings suggest that future climate/carbon-cycle feedbacks may depend more strongly on changes in the hydrological cycle than is expected at present and is considered in Earth system models.

Not all droughts are created equal: The impacts of interannual drought pattern and magnitude on grassland carbon cycling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoover, David L.; Rogers, Brendan M.

2016-01-01

Climate extremes, such as drought, may have immediate and potentially prolonged effects on carbon cycling. Grasslands store approximately one-third of all terrestrial carbon and may become carbon sources during droughts. However, the magnitude and duration of drought-induced disruptions to the carbon cycle, as well as the mechanisms responsible, remain poorly understood. Over the next century, global climate models predict an increase in two types of drought: chronic but subtle ‘press-droughts’, and shorter term but extreme ‘pulse-droughts’. Much of our current understanding of the ecological impacts of drought comes from experimental rainfall manipulations. These studies have been highly valuable, but are often short term and rarely quantify carbon feedbacks. To address this knowledge gap, we used the Community Land Model 4.0 to examine the individual and interactive effects of pulse- and press-droughts on carbon cycling in a mesic grassland of the US Great Plains. A series of modeling experiments were imposed by varying drought magnitude (precipitation amount) and interannual pattern (press- vs. pulse-droughts) to examine the effects on carbon storage and cycling at annual to century timescales. We present three main findings. First, a single-year pulse-drought had immediate and prolonged effects on carbon storage due to differential sensitivities of ecosystem respiration and gross primary production. Second, short-term pulse-droughts caused greater carbon loss than chronic press-droughts when total precipitation reductions over a 20-year period were equivalent. Third, combining pulse- and press-droughts had intermediate effects on carbon loss compared to the independent drought types, except at high drought levels. Overall, these results suggest that interannual drought pattern may be as important for carbon dynamics as drought magnitude and that extreme droughts may have long-lasting carbon feedbacks in grassland ecosystems.

Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production

DOE PAGES

Campbell, J. E.; Berry, J. A.; Seibt, U.; ...

2017-04-05

Growth in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) may provide a negative feedback for climate change. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent biogeochemical processes can suppress global GPP growth. In consequence, model estimates of terrestrial carbon storage and carbon cycle –climate feedbacks remain poorly constrained. Here we present a global, measurement-based estimate of GPP growth during the twentieth century based on long-term atmospheric carbonyl sulphide (COS) records derived from ice core, firn, and ambient air samples. Here, we interpret these records using a model that simulates changes in COS concentration due to changes in its sources and sinks, including amore » large sink that is related to GPP. We find that the COS record is most consistent with climate-carbon cycle model simulations that assume large GPP growth during the twentieth century (31% ± 5%; mean ± 95% confidence interval). Finally, while this COS analysis does not directly constrain estimates of future GPP growth it provides a global-scale benchmark for historical carbon cycle simulations.« less

Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Campbell, J. E.; Berry, J. A.; Seibt, U.

Growth in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) may provide a negative feedback for climate change. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent biogeochemical processes can suppress global GPP growth. In consequence, model estimates of terrestrial carbon storage and carbon cycle –climate feedbacks remain poorly constrained. Here we present a global, measurement-based estimate of GPP growth during the twentieth century based on long-term atmospheric carbonyl sulphide (COS) records derived from ice core, firn, and ambient air samples. Here, we interpret these records using a model that simulates changes in COS concentration due to changes in its sources and sinks, including amore » large sink that is related to GPP. We find that the COS record is most consistent with climate-carbon cycle model simulations that assume large GPP growth during the twentieth century (31% ± 5%; mean ± 95% confidence interval). Finally, while this COS analysis does not directly constrain estimates of future GPP growth it provides a global-scale benchmark for historical carbon cycle simulations.« less

The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions.

PubMed

Matthews, H Damon; Gillett, Nathan P; Stott, Peter A; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2009-06-11

The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO(2) is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response. These approaches, however, do not account for carbon cycle feedbacks and therefore do not fully represent the net response of the Earth system to anthropogenic CO(2) emissions. Climate-carbon modelling experiments have shown that: (1) the warming per unit CO(2) emitted does not depend on the background CO(2) concentration; (2) the total allowable emissions for climate stabilization do not depend on the timing of those emissions; and (3) the temperature response to a pulse of CO(2) is approximately constant on timescales of decades to centuries. Here we generalize these results and show that the carbon-climate response (CCR), defined as the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions, is approximately independent of both the atmospheric CO(2) concentration and its rate of change on these timescales. From observational constraints, we estimate CCR to be in the range 1.0-2.1 degrees C per trillion tonnes of carbon (Tt C) emitted (5th to 95th percentiles), consistent with twenty-first-century CCR values simulated by climate-carbon models. Uncertainty in land-use CO(2) emissions and aerosol forcing, however, means that higher observationally constrained values cannot be excluded. The CCR, when evaluated from climate-carbon models under idealized conditions, represents a simple yet robust metric for comparing models, which aggregates both climate feedbacks and carbon cycle feedbacks. CCR is also likely to be a useful concept for climate change mitigation and policy; by combining the uncertainties associated with climate sensitivity, carbon sinks and climate-carbon feedbacks into a single quantity, the CCR allows CO(2)-induced global mean temperature change to be inferred directly from cumulative carbon emissions.

The Role of Plate Tectonic-Climate Coupling and Exposed Land Area in the Development of Habitable Climates on Rocky Planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foley, Bradford J.

2015-10-01

The long-term carbon cycle is vital for maintaining liquid water oceans on rocky planets due to the negative climate feedbacks involved in silicate weathering. Plate tectonics plays a crucial role in driving the long-term carbon cycle because it is responsible for CO2 degassing at ridges and arcs, the return of CO2 to the mantle through subduction, and supplying fresh, weatherable rock to the surface via uplift and orogeny. However, the presence of plate tectonics itself may depend on climate according to recent geodynamical studies showing that cool surface temperatures are important for maintaining vigorous plate tectonics. Using a simple carbon cycle model, I show that the negative climate feedbacks inherent in the long-term carbon cycle are uninhibited by climate's effect on plate tectonics. Furthermore, initial atmospheric CO2 conditions do not impact the final climate state reached when the carbon cycle comes to equilibrium, as long as liquid water is present and silicate weathering can occur. Thus an initially hot, CO2 rich atmosphere does not prevent the development of a temperate climate and plate tectonics on a planet. However, globally supply limited weathering does prevent the development of temperate climates on planets with small subaerial land areas and large total CO2 budgets because supply limited weathering lacks stabilizing climate feedbacks. Planets in the supply limited regime may become inhospitable for life and could experience significant water loss. Supply limited weathering is less likely on plate tectonic planets because plate tectonics promotes high erosion rates and thus a greater supply of bedrock to the surface.

Implications of plant acclimation for future climate-carbon cycle feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercado, Lina; Kattge, Jens; Cox, Peter; Sitch, Stephen; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lloyd, Jon; Huntingford, Chris

2010-05-01

The response of land ecosystems to climate change and associated feedbacks are a key uncertainty in future climate prediction (Friedlingstein et al. 2006). However global models generally do not account for the acclimation of plant physiological processes to increased temperatures. Here we conduct a first global sensitivity study whereby we modify the Joint UK land Environment Simulator (JULES) to account for temperature acclimation of two main photosynthetic parameters, Vcmax and Jmax (Kattge and Knorr 2007) and plant respiration (Atkin and Tjoelker 2003). The model is then applied over the 21st Century within the IMOGEN framework (Huntingford et al. 2004). Model simulations will provide new and improved projections of biogeochemical cycling, forest resilience, and thus more accurate projections of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks and the future evolution of the Earth System. Friedlingstein P, Cox PM, Betts R et al. (2006) Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis, results from the C4MIP model intercomparison. Journal of Climate, 19, 3337-3353. Kattge J and Knorr W (2007): Temperature acclimation in a biochemical model of photosynthesis: a reanalysis of data from 36 species. Plant, Cell and Environment 30, 1176-1190 Atkin O.K and Tjoelker, M. G. (2003): Thermal acclimation and the dynamic response of plant respiration to temperature. Trends in Plant Science 8 (7), 343-351 Huntingford C, et al. (2004) Using a GCM analogue model to investigate the potential for Amazonian forest dieback. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78, 177-185.

Climate control of terrestrial carbon exchange across biomes and continents

Treesearch

Chuixiang Yi; Daniel Ricciuto; Runze Li; John Wolbeck; Xiyan Xu; Mats Nilsson; John Frank; William J. Massman

2010-01-01

Understanding the relationships between climate and carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems is critical to predict future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide because of the potential accelerating effects of positive climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. However, directly observed relationships between climate and terrestrial CO2 exchange with the atmosphere across biomes...

Chasing Perfection: Should We Reduce Model Uncertainty in Carbon Cycle-Climate Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonan, G. B.; Lombardozzi, D.; Wieder, W. R.; Lindsay, K. T.; Thomas, R. Q.

2015-12-01

Earth system model simulations of the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle show large multi-model spread in the carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedback parameters. Large differences among models are also seen in their simulation of global vegetation and soil C stocks and other aspects of the C cycle, prompting concern about model uncertainty and our ability to faithfully represent fundamental aspects of the terrestrial C cycle in Earth system models. Benchmarking analyses that compare model simulations with common datasets have been proposed as a means to assess model fidelity with observations, and various model-data fusion techniques have been used to reduce model biases. While such efforts will reduce multi-model spread, they may not help reduce uncertainty (and increase confidence) in projections of the C cycle over the twenty-first century. Many ecological and biogeochemical processes represented in Earth system models are poorly understood at both the site scale and across large regions, where biotic and edaphic heterogeneity are important. Our experience with the Community Land Model (CLM) suggests that large uncertainty in the terrestrial C cycle and its feedback with climate change is an inherent property of biological systems. The challenge of representing life in Earth system models, with the rich diversity of lifeforms and complexity of biological systems, may necessitate a multitude of modeling approaches to capture the range of possible outcomes. Such models should encompass a range of plausible model structures. We distinguish between model parameter uncertainty and model structural uncertainty. Focusing on improved parameter estimates may, in fact, limit progress in assessing model structural uncertainty associated with realistically representing biological processes. Moreover, higher confidence may be achieved through better process representation, but this does not necessarily reduce uncertainty.

Revisiting ocean carbon sequestration by direct injection: a global carbon budget perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reith, Fabian; Keller, David P.; Oschlies, Andreas

2016-11-01

In this study we look beyond the previously studied effects of oceanic CO2 injections on atmospheric and oceanic reservoirs and also account for carbon cycle and climate feedbacks between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere. Considering these additional feedbacks is important since backfluxes from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere in response to reducing atmospheric CO2 can further offset the targeted reduction. To quantify these dynamics we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to simulate direct injection of CO2 into the deep ocean as a means of emissions mitigation during a high CO2 emission scenario. In three sets of experiments with different injection depths, we simulate a 100-year injection period of a total of 70 GtC and follow global carbon cycle dynamics over another 900 years. In additional parameter perturbation runs, we varied the default terrestrial photosynthesis CO2 fertilization parameterization by ±50 % in order to test the sensitivity of this uncertain carbon cycle feedback to the targeted atmospheric carbon reduction through direct CO2 injections. Simulated seawater chemistry changes and marine carbon storage effectiveness are similar to previous studies. As expected, by the end of the injection period avoided emissions fall short of the targeted 70 GtC by 16-30 % as a result of carbon cycle feedbacks and backfluxes in both land and ocean reservoirs. The target emissions reduction in the parameter perturbation simulations is about 0.2 and 2 % more at the end of the injection period and about 9 % less to 1 % more at the end of the simulations when compared to the unperturbed injection runs. An unexpected feature is the effect of the model's internal variability of deep-water formation in the Southern Ocean, which, in some model runs, causes additional oceanic carbon uptake after injection termination relative to a control run without injection and therefore with slightly different atmospheric CO2 and climate. These results of a model that has very low internal climate variability illustrate that the attribution of carbon fluxes and accounting for injected CO2 may be very challenging in the real climate system with its much larger internal variability.

Incorporating phosphorus cycling into global modeling efforts: a worthwhile, tractable endeavor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reed, Sasha C.; Yang, Xiaojuan; Thornton, Peter E.

2015-06-25

Myriad field, laboratory, and modeling studies show that nutrient availability plays a fundamental role in regulating CO 2 exchange between the Earth's biosphere and atmosphere, and in determining how carbon pools and fluxes respond to climatic change. Accordingly, global models that incorporate coupled climate-carbon cycle feedbacks made a significant advance with the introduction of a prognostic nitrogen cycle. Here we propose that incorporating phosphorus cycling represents an important next step in coupled climate-carbon cycling model development, particularly for lowland tropical forests where phosphorus availability is often presumed to limit primary production. We highlight challenges to including phosphorus in modeling effortsmore » and provide suggestions for how to move forward.« less

Incorporating phosphorus cycling into global modeling efforts: a worthwhile, tractable endeavor

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, Sasha C.; Yang, Xiaojuan; Thornton, Peter E.

2015-01-01

Myriad field, laboratory, and modeling studies show that nutrient availability plays a fundamental role in regulating CO2 exchange between the Earth's biosphere and atmosphere, and in determining how carbon pools and fluxes respond to climatic change. Accordingly, global models that incorporate coupled climate–carbon cycle feedbacks made a significant advance with the introduction of a prognostic nitrogen cycle. Here we propose that incorporating phosphorus cycling represents an important next step in coupled climate–carbon cycling model development, particularly for lowland tropical forests where phosphorus availability is often presumed to limit primary production. We highlight challenges to including phosphorus in modeling efforts and provide suggestions for how to move forward.

Instability and breakdown of the coral-algae symbiosis upon exceedence of the interglacial pCO2 threshold (>260 ppmv): the "missing" Earth-System feedback mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wooldridge, Scott A.

2017-12-01

Changes in the atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 ( pCO2) leads to predictable impacts on the surface ocean carbonate system. Here, the importance of atmospheric pCO2 <260 ppmv is established for the optimum performance (and stability) of the algal endosymbiosis employed by a key suite of tropical reef-building coral species. Violation of this symbiotic threshold is revealed as a prerequisite for major historical reef extinction events, glacial-interglacial feedback climate cycles, and the modern decline of coral reef ecosystems. Indeed, it is concluded that this symbiotic threshold enacts a fundamental feedback mechanism needed to explain the characteristic dynamics (and drivers) of the coupled land-ocean-atmosphere carbon cycle of the Earth System since the mid-Miocene, some 25 million yr ago.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

2013-04-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high-end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real-world climate-sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the upper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present-day observables and future changes, while the large spread of future-projected changes highlights the ongoing need for such work.

Microbial dormancy improves development and experimental validation of ecosystem model

DOE PAGES

Wang, Gangsheng; Jagadamma, Sindhu; Mayes, Melanie; ...

2014-07-11

Climate feedbacks from soils can result from environmental change followed by response of plant and microbial communities, and/or associated changes in nutrient cycling. Explicit consideration of microbial life history traits and functions may be necessary to predict climate feedbacks due to changes in the physiology and community composition of microbes and their associated effect on carbon cycling. Here, we enhanced the Microbial-Enzyme-mediated Decomposition (MEND) model by incorporating microbial dormancy and the ability to track multiple isotopes of carbon. We tested two versions of MEND, i.e., MEND with dormancy and MEND without dormancy, against long-term (270 d) lab incubations of fourmore » soils with isotopically-labeled substrates. MEND without dormancy adequately fitted multiple observations (total and 14C respiration, and dissolved organic carbon), but at the cost of significantly underestimating the total microbial biomass. The MEND with dormancy improved estimates of microbial biomass by 20 71% over the MEND without dormancy. We observed large differences for two fitted model parameters, the specific maintenance and growth rates for active microbes, depending on whether dormancy was considered. Together our model extrapolations of the incubation study show that long-term soil incubations with observations in multiple carbon pools are necessary to estimate both decomposition and microbial parameters. These efforts should provide essential support to future field- and global-scale simulations and enable more confident predictions of feedbacks between environmental change and carbon cycling.« less

Below-ground process responses to elevated CO2 and temperature: a discussion of observations, measurement methods, and models

Treesearch

Elise Pendall; Scott Bridgham; Paul J. Hanson; Bruce Hungate; David W. Kicklighter; Dale W. Johnson; Beverly E. Law; Yiqi Luo; J. Patrick Megonigal; Maria Olsrud; Michael G. Ryan; Shiqiang Wan

2004-01-01

Rising atmospheric CO2 and temperatures are probably altering ecosystem carbon cycling, causing both positive and negative feedbacks to climate. Below-ground processes play a key role in the global carbon (C) cycle because they regulate storage of large quantities of C, and are potentially very sensitive to direct and indirect effects of elevated...

Not all droughts are created equal: the impacts of interannual drought pattern and magnitude on grassland carbon cycling.

PubMed

Hoover, David L; Rogers, Brendan M

2016-05-01

Climate extremes, such as drought, may have immediate and potentially prolonged effects on carbon cycling. Grasslands store approximately one-third of all terrestrial carbon and may become carbon sources during droughts. However, the magnitude and duration of drought-induced disruptions to the carbon cycle, as well as the mechanisms responsible, remain poorly understood. Over the next century, global climate models predict an increase in two types of drought: chronic but subtle 'press-droughts', and shorter term but extreme 'pulse-droughts'. Much of our current understanding of the ecological impacts of drought comes from experimental rainfall manipulations. These studies have been highly valuable, but are often short term and rarely quantify carbon feedbacks. To address this knowledge gap, we used the Community Land Model 4.0 to examine the individual and interactive effects of pulse- and press-droughts on carbon cycling in a mesic grassland of the US Great Plains. A series of modeling experiments were imposed by varying drought magnitude (precipitation amount) and interannual pattern (press- vs. pulse-droughts) to examine the effects on carbon storage and cycling at annual to century timescales. We present three main findings. First, a single-year pulse-drought had immediate and prolonged effects on carbon storage due to differential sensitivities of ecosystem respiration and gross primary production. Second, short-term pulse-droughts caused greater carbon loss than chronic press-droughts when total precipitation reductions over a 20-year period were equivalent. Third, combining pulse- and press-droughts had intermediate effects on carbon loss compared to the independent drought types, except at high drought levels. Overall, these results suggest that interannual drought pattern may be as important for carbon dynamics as drought magnitude and that extreme droughts may have long-lasting carbon feedbacks in grassland ecosystems. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Measuring and modeling CO2 and H2O fluxes in complex terrain

Treesearch

Diego A. Riveros-Iregui; Brian L. McGlynn

2008-01-01

The feedbacks between the water and the carbon cycles are of critical importance to global carbon balances. Forests and forest soils in northern latitudes are important carbon pools because of their potential as sinks for atmospheric carbon. However there are significant unknowns related to the effects of hydrologic variability, mountainous terrain, and landscape...

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts.

PubMed

Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

2015-08-01

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon-climate feedbacks. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Long-term climate change and the geochemical cycle of carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marshall, Hal G.; Walker, James C. G.; Kuhn, William R.

1988-01-01

The response of the coupled climate-geochemical system to changes in paleography is examined in terms of the biogeochemical carbon cycle. The simple, zonally averaged energy balance climate model combined with a geochemical carbon cycle model, which was developed to study climate changes, is described. The effects of latitudinal distributions of the continents on the carbon cycle are investigated, and the global silicate weathering rate as a function of latitude is measured. It is observed that a concentration of land area at high altitudes results in a high CO2 partial pressure and a high global average temperature, and for land at low latitudes a cold globe and ice are detected. It is noted that the CO2 greenhouse feedback effect is potentially strong and has a stabilizing effect on the climate system.

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

PubMed Central

Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

2015-01-01

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon–climate feedbacks. PMID:25752680

Substrate and environmental controls on microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon: a framework for Earth System Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Xiaofeng; Schimel, Joshua; Thornton, Peter E

2014-01-01

Microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon is one of the fundamental processes of global carbon cycling and it determines the magnitude of microbial biomass in soils. Mechanistic understanding of microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon and its controls is important for to improve Earth system models ability to simulate carbon-climate feedbacks. Although microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon is broadly considered to be an important parameter, it really comprises two separate physiological processes: one-time assimilation efficiency and time-dependent microbial maintenance energy. Representing of these two mechanisms is crucial to more accurately simulate carbon cycling in soils. In this study, amore » simple modeling framework was developed to evaluate the substrate and environmental controls on microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon using a new term: microbial annual active period (the length of microbes remaining active in one year). Substrate quality has a positive effect on microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon: higher substrate quality (lower C:N ratio) leads to higher ratio of microbial carbon to soil organic carbon and vice versa. Increases in microbial annual active period from zero stimulate microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon; however, when microbial annual active period is longer than an optimal threshold, increasing this period decreases microbial biomass. The simulated ratios of soil microbial biomass to soil organic carbon are reasonably consistent with a recently compiled global dataset at the biome-level. The modeling framework of microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon and its controls developed in this study offers an applicable ways to incorporate microbial contributions to the carbon cycling into Earth system models for simulating carbon-climate feedbacks and to explain global patterns of microbial biomass.« less

Carbon Dioxide Cycling And The Climate of Ancient Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zahnle, Kevin; Sleep, Norman H.; DeVincenzi, Donald (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The continental cycle of silicate weathering and metamorphism dynamically buffers atmospheric CO2 and climate. Feedback is provided by the strong temperature dependence of silicate weathering. Here we argue that hydrothermal alteration of oceanic basalts also dynamically buffers CO2. The oceanic cycle links with the mantle via subduction and the midocean ridges. Feedback is provided by the dependence of carbonatization on dissolved carbonates in seawater. Unlike the continental cycle, the oceanic cycle has no thermostat. Currently the continental cycle is more important, but earlier in Earth's history, especially if heat flow were higher than it is now, more vigorous plate tectonics would have made the oceanic cycle dominant. We find that CO2 greenhouses thick enough to defeat the faint early sun are implausible and that, if no other greenhouse gases are invoked, very cold climates are expected for much of the Proterozoic and the Archean. We echo current fashion and favor biogenic methane as the chief supplement to CO2. Fast weathering and probable subduction of abundant impact ejecta would have reduced CO2 levels still further in the Hadean. Despite its name, the Hadean would have been the coldest era in the history of the Earth.

Carbon Dioxide Cycling and the Climate of Ancient Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zahnle, Kevin; Sleep, Norman H.

2001-01-01

The continental cycle of silicate weathering and metamorphism dynamically buffers atmospheric CO2 and climate. Feedback is provided by the strong temperature dependence of silicate weathering. Here we argue that hydrothermal alteration of oceanic basalts also dynamically buffers CO2. The oceanic cycle links with the mantle via subduction and the midocean ridges. Feedback is provided by the dependence of carbonatization on dissolved carbonates in seawater. Unlike the continental cycle, the oceanic cycle has no thermostat. Currently the continental cycle is more important, but earlier in Earth's history, especially if heat flow were higher than it is now, more vigorous plate tectonics would have made the oceanic cycle dominant. We find that CO2 greenhouses thick enough to defeat the faint early Sun are implausible and that, if no other greenhouse gases are invoked, very cold climates are expected for much of the Proterozoic and the Archean. We echo current fashion and favor biogenic methane as the chief supplement to CO2. Fast weathering and probable subduction of abundant impact ejecta would have reduced CO2 levels still further in the Hadean. Despite its name, the Hadean would have been the coldest era in the history of the Earth.

Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, P. M.; Betts, R. A.; Collins, M.; Harris, P. P.; Huntingford, C.; Jones, C. D.

The first GCM climate change projections to include dynamic vegetation and an interactive carbon cycle produced a very significant amplification of global warming over the 21st century. Under the IS92a ``business as usual'' emissions scenario CO2 concentrations reached about 980ppmv by 2100, which is about 280ppmv higher than when these feedbacks were ignored. The major contribution to the increased CO2 arose from reductions in soil carbon because global warming is assumed to accelerate respiration. However, there was also a lesser contribution from an alarming loss of the Amazonian rainforest. This paper describes the phenomenon of Amazonian forest dieback under elevated CO2 in the Hadley Centre climate-carbon cycle model.

Observing terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle from space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schimel, David; Pavlick, Ryan; Fisher, Joshua B.

2015-02-06

Modeled terrestrial ecosystem and carbon cycle feedbacks contribute substantial uncertainty to projections of future climate. The limitations of current observing networks contribute to this uncertainty. Here we present a current climatology of global model predictions and observations for photosynthesis, biomass, plant diversity and plant functional diversity. Carbon cycle tipping points occur in terrestrial regions where fluxes or stocks are largest, and where biological variability is highest, the tropics and Arctic/Boreal zones. Global observations are predominately in the mid-latitudes and are sparse in high and low latitude ecosystems. Observing and forecasting ecosystem change requires sustained observations of sufficient density in timemore » and space in critical regions. Using data and theory available now, we can develop a strategy to detect and forecast terrestrial carbon cycle-climate interactions, by combining in situ and remote techniques.« less

Incorporating phosphorus cycling into global modeling efforts: a worthwhile, tractable endeavor.

PubMed

Reed, Sasha C; Yang, Xiaojuan; Thornton, Peter E

2015-10-01

324 I. 324 II. 325 III. 326 IV. 327 328 References 328 SUMMARY: Myriad field, laboratory, and modeling studies show that nutrient availability plays a fundamental role in regulating CO2 exchange between the Earth's biosphere and atmosphere, and in determining how carbon pools and fluxes respond to climatic change. Accordingly, global models that incorporate coupled climate-carbon cycle feedbacks made a significant advance with the introduction of a prognostic nitrogen cycle. Here we propose that incorporating phosphorus cycling represents an important next step in coupled climate-carbon cycling model development, particularly for lowland tropical forests where phosphorus availability is often presumed to limit primary production. We highlight challenges to including phosphorus in modeling efforts and provide suggestions for how to move forward. No claim to original US government works New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange caused by amplified plant productivity in northern ecosystems.

PubMed

Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Rödenbeck, Christian; Keeling, Ralph; Heimann, Martin; Thonicke, Kirsten; Zaehle, Sönke; Reichstein, Markus

2016-02-12

Atmospheric monitoring of high northern latitudes (above 40°N) has shown an enhanced seasonal cycle of carbon dioxide (CO2) since the 1960s, but the underlying mechanisms are not yet fully understood. The much stronger increase in high latitudes relative to low ones suggests that northern ecosystems are experiencing large changes in vegetation and carbon cycle dynamics. We found that the latitudinal gradient of the increasing CO2 amplitude is mainly driven by positive trends in photosynthetic carbon uptake caused by recent climate change and mediated by changing vegetation cover in northern ecosystems. Our results underscore the importance of climate-vegetation-carbon cycle feedbacks at high latitudes; moreover, they indicate that in recent decades, photosynthetic carbon uptake has reacted much more strongly to warming than have carbon release processes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Decadally cycling soil carbon is more sensitive to warming than faster-cycling soil carbon.

PubMed

Lin, Junjie; Zhu, Biao; Cheng, Weixin

2015-12-01

The response of soil organic carbon (SOC) pools to globally rising surface temperature crucially determines the feedback between climate change and the global carbon cycle. However, there is a lack of studies investigating the temperature sensitivity of decomposition for decadally cycling SOC which is the main component of total soil carbon stock and the most relevant to global change. We tackled this issue using two decadally (13) C-labeled soils and a much improved measuring system in a long-term incubation experiment. Results indicated that the temperature sensitivity of decomposition for decadally cycling SOC (>23 years in one soil and >55 years in the other soil) was significantly greater than that for faster-cycling SOC (<23 or 55 years) or for the entire SOC stock. Moreover, decadally cycling SOC contributed substantially (35-59%) to the total CO2 loss during the 360-day incubation. Overall, these results indicate that the decomposition of decadally cycling SOC is highly sensitive to temperature change, which will likely make this large SOC stock vulnerable to loss by global warming in the 21st century and beyond. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Continental Growth and Mantle Hydration as Earth System Feedback Cycles and possible Effects of the Biosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höning, D.; Spohn, T.

2016-12-01

The evolution of Earth is charcterized by intertwined feedback cycles. We focus on two feedback cycles that include the mantle water budget and the continental crust and study possible effects of the Earth's biosphere. The first feedback loop includes cycling of water into the mantle at subduction zones and outgassing at volcanic chains and mid-ocean ridges. Water will reduce the viscosity of mantle rock, and therefore the speed of mantle convection and plate subduction will increase with the mantle water concentration, eventually enhancing the rates of mantle water regassing and outgassing. A second feedback loop includes the production and erosion of continental crust. Continents grow by volcanism above subduction zones, whose total length is determined by the total area of the continents. Furthermore, the erosion rate of the continents is proportional to the total surface area of continental crust. The rate of sediment subduction affects the rate of transport of water to the mantle and the production rate of new continental crust. We present a model that includes both cycles and show how the system develops stable and unstable fixed points in a plane defined by mantle water concentration and surface are of continents. The stable points represent either an Earth mostly covered by continents and a wet mantle or an Earth mostly covered by oceans with a dry mantle. The presently observed Earth is inbetween these extreme states but the state is intrinsically unstable. We couple the feedback model to a parameterized thermal evolution model. We show how Earth evolved towards its present unstable state. We argue that other feedback cycles such as the carbonate silicate cycle may act to stabilize the present state, however. By enhancing continental weathering and erosion, and eventually the sediment transport into subduction zones, the biosphere impacts both feedback cycles and might play a crucial role in regulating Earth's system and keep continental crust coverage and mantle water budget at its present day state.

Fire, Carbon and Climate Change in Boreal Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flannigan, M. D.; Amiro, B. D.; Logan, K. A.

2005-12-01

Disturbances are the major stand-renewing agents for much of the circumboreal forest. In Canada, fire has received much of the attention in carbon cycle science because it affects about 3 million ha of Canadian forest annually, impacts air quality, and can threaten life, property and infrastructure. Fire affects the carbon balance through three processes. First, carbon and other greenhouse gases are emitted to the atmosphere during the combustion process. We estimate this to average about 27 Tg C/year in Canada over the past 40 years, which is close to 20% of industrial carbon emissions. However, in some years this can exceed 100 Tg C. Efforts are underway to estimate global fire activity and greenhouse gas emissions using observations, remote sensing and modelling. The second process is the decomposition of fire-killed vegetation. This forms a pool of coarse woody debris that can take decades to decompose, or can be quite rapid, depending on the post-fire environment. The third process is succession of vegetation following fire, a dynamic process that involves the interplay among species establishment and competition. Weather and climate affects all of these processes. Estimates of the future environment indicate that much of boreal Canada will experience warmer and drier conditions, although there will be regional differences and transient effects. The projections suggest that we may experience a doubling of area burned over the next century because of anthropogenic climate changes. This may have further implications to the global carbon budget by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. This increase in fire activity may lead to a positive feedback cycle with the increased release of greenhouse gases. A run-away scenario is unlikely because young successional boreal vegetation often does not burn as readily and would limit the positive feedback cycle. Also, changes to the forest composition following fire increases surface albedo and alters the energy balance; effects that may cause climate cooling. However, the impacts of landscape feedbacks and human intervention limiting future fire are not well known.

Revisiting ocean carbon sequestration by direct injection: A global carbon budget perspective Fabian Reith, David P. Keller & Andreas Oschlies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reith, F.; Keller, D. P.; Martin, T.; Oschlies, A.

2015-12-01

Marchetti [1977] proposed that CO2 could be directly injected into the deep ocean to mitigate its rapid build-up in the atmosphere. Although previous studies have investigated biogeochemical and climatic effects of injecting CO2 into the ocean, they have not looked at global carbon cycle feedbacks and backfluxes that are important for accounting. Using an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity we simulated the injection of CO2 into the deep ocean during a high CO2 emissions scenario. At seven sites 0.1 GtC yr-1 was injected at three different depths (3 separate experiments) between the years 2020 and 2120. After the 100-year injection period, our simulations continued until the year 3020 to assess the long-term dynamics. In addition, we investigated the effects of marine sediment feedbacks during the experiments by running the model with and without a sediment sub-model. Our results, in regards to efficiency (the residence time of injected CO2) and seawater chemistry changes, are similar to previous studies. However, from a carbon budget perspective the targeted cumulative atmospheric CO2 reduction of 70 GtC was never reached. This was caused by the atmosphere-to-terrestrial and/or atmosphere-to-ocean carbon fluxes (relative to the control run), which were effected by the reduction in atmospheric carbon. With respect to global oceanic carbon, the respective carbon cycle-climate feedbacks led to an even smaller efficiency than indicated by tracing the injected CO2. The ocean also unexpectedly took up carbon after the injection at 1500 m was stopped because of a deep convection event in the Southern Ocean. These findings highlighted that the accounting of CO2 injection would be challenging.

Quantifying the importance of model-to-model variability in integrated assessments of 21st century climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Jones, A. D.; Shi, X.; Calvin, K. V.

2016-12-01

The C4MIP and CMIP5 model intercomparison projects (MIPs) highlighted uncertainties in climate projections, driven to a large extent by interactions between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate feedbacks. In addition, the importance of feedbacks between human (energy and economic) systems and natural (carbon and climate) systems is poorly understood, and not considered in the previous MIP protocols. The experiments conducted under the previous Integrated Earth System Model (iESM) project, which coupled a earth system model with an integrated assessment model (GCAM), found that the inclusion of climate feedbacks on the terrestrial system in an RCP4.5 scenario increased ecosystem productivity, resulting in declines in cropland extent and increases in bioenergy production and forest cover. As a follow-up to these studies and to further understand climate-carbon cycle interactions and feedbacks, we examined the robustness of these results by running a suite of GCAM-only experiments using changes in ecosystem productivity derived from both the CMIP5 archive and the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project. In our results, the effects of climate on yield in an RCP8.5 scenario tended to be more positive than those of AgMIP, but more negative than those of the other CMIP models. We discuss these results and the implications of model-to-model variability for integrated coupling studies of the future earth system.

Redox-controlled carbon and phosphorus burial: A mechanism for enhanced organic carbon sequestration during the PETM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komar, Nemanja; Zeebe, Richard E.

2017-12-01

Geological records reveal a major perturbation in carbon cycling during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ∼56 Ma), marked by global warming of more than 5 °C and a prominent negative carbon isotope excursion of at least 2.5‰ within the marine realm. The entire event lasted about 200,000 yr and was associated with a massive release of light carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system over several thousands of years. Here we focus on the terminal stage of the PETM, during which the ocean-atmosphere system rapidly recovered from the carbon cycle perturbation. We employ a carbon-cycle box model to examine the feedbacks between surface ocean biological production, carbon, oxygen, phosphorus, and carbonate chemistry during massive CO2 release events, such as the PETM. The model results indicate that the redox-controlled carbon-phosphorus feedback is capable of producing enhanced organic carbon sequestration during large carbon emission events. The locale of carbon oxidation (ocean vs. atmosphere) does not affect the amount of carbon sequestered. However, even though the model produces trends consistent with oxygen, excess accumulation rates of organic carbon (∼1700 Pg C during the recovery stage), export production and δ13 C data, it fails to reproduce the magnitude of change of sediment carbonate content and the CCD over-deepening during the recovery stage. The CCD and sediment carbonate content overshoot during the recovery stage is muted by a predicted increase in CaCO3 rain. Nonetheless, there are indications that the CaCO3 export remained relatively constant during the PETM. If this was indeed true, then an initial pulse of 3,000 Pg C followed by an additional, slow leak of 2,500 Pg C could have triggered an accelerated nutrient supply to the surface ocean instigating enhanced organic carbon export, consequently increasing organic carbon sequestration, resulting in an accelerated restoration of ocean-atmosphere biogeochemistry during the termination phase of the PETM.

Model Simulations of the Global Carbon and Sulfur Cycles: Implications for the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higgins, J. A.; Schrag, D. P.

2004-12-01

Extreme global warmth and an abrupt negative carbon isotope excursion during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) have been attributed to a rapid addition of isotopically depleted carbon to the ocean-atmosphere system. Potential carbon sources include the abrupt release of 1000-2000 Gt C as methane hydrate (\\delta13C ~-60\\permil) from sediments on the continental slope (Dickens et al., 1995) and the oxidation of 8000-9000 Gt of organic carbon (\\delta13C ~-25\\permil) in rampant global wildfires (Kurtz et al., 2003). Using a simple geochemical model of the global carbon and sulfur cycles, we investigate whether these hypotheses are consistent with estimates of climate warming during the PETM by considering the effects of atmospheric composition and climate in the Paleocene and feedbacks driven by changes in sulfur cycling and seawater chemistry. Modest increases in atmospheric CO2 (70-150 ppm) associated with methane hydrate release cannot, without additional feedbacks in the climate system, account for a 5-6° C increase in global sea surface temperature during the PETM. In contrast, a significant increase in atmospheric CO2 (600-700 ppm) is observed following the oxidation of 8000-9000 Gt of organic carbon. However, constraints on the size and extent of the Paleocene terrestrial carbon pool and the absence of geologic evidence indicative of vast wildfires argue against a global conflagration as an important source of depleted carbon. Instead, we interpret the PETM and its associated negative carbon isotope excursion as representing the oxidation of 8000-9000 Gt C as organic matter in shallow marine and near shore terrestrial sediments following the retreat of major epicontinental seaways in the Paleocene. This hypothesis is also consistent with large changes in the sulfur cycle in the early Eocene inferred from the \\delta34S of seawater sulfate. References: Dickens G.R., et al., (1995) Paleoceanography, 10, 965-971. Kurtz, A.C., et al., (2003) Paleoceanography, 18, 1090-1104.

Assessing spatiotemporal changes in forest carbon turnover times in observational data and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, K.; Smith, W. K.; Trugman, A. T.; van Mantgem, P.; Peng, C.; Condit, R.; Anderegg, W.

2017-12-01

Forests influence global carbon and water cycles, biophysical land-atmosphere feedbacks, and atmospheric composition. The capacity of forests to sequester atmospheric CO2 in a changing climate depends not only on the response of carbon uptake (i.e., gross primary productivity) but also on the simultaneous change in carbon residence time. However, changes in carbon residence with climate change are uncertain, impacting the accuracy of predictions of future terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics. Here, we use long-term forest inventory data representative of tropical, temperate, and boreal forests; satellite-based estimates of net primary productivity and vegetation carbon stock; and six models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to investigate spatiotemporal trends in carbon residence time and its relation to climate. Forest inventory and satellite-based estimates of carbon residence time show a pervasive decreasing trend across global forests. In contrast, the CMIP5 models diverge in predicting historical and future trends in carbon residence time. Divergence across CMIP5 models indicate carbon turnover times are not well constrained by observations, which likely contributes to large variability in future carbon cycle projections.

Thousands of Viral Populations Recovered from Peatland Soil Metagenomes Reveal Viral Impacts on Carbon Cycling in Thawing Permafrost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emerson, J. B.; Brum, J. R.; Roux, S.; Bolduc, B.; Woodcroft, B. J.; Singleton, C. M.; Boyd, J. A.; Hodgkins, S. B.; Wilson, R.; Trubl, G. G.; Jang, H. B.; Crill, P. M.; Chanton, J.; Saleska, S. R.; Rich, V. I.; Tyson, G. W.; Sullivan, M. B.

2016-12-01

Methane and carbon dioxide emissions, which are under significant microbial control, provide positive feedbacks to climate change in thawing permafrost peatlands. Although viruses in marine systems have been shown to impact microbial ecology and biogeochemical cycling through host cell lysis, horizontal gene transfer, and auxiliary metabolic gene expression, viral ecology in permafrost and other soils remains virtually unstudied due to methodological challenges. Here, we identified viral sequences in 208 assembled bulk soil metagenomes derived from a permafrost thaw gradient in Stordalen Mire, northern Sweden, from 2010-2012. 2,048 viral populations were recovered, which genome- and network-based classification revealed to be largely novel, increasing known viral genera globally by 40%. Ecologically, viral communities differed significantly across the thaw gradient and by soil depth. Co-occurring microbial community composition, soil moisture, and pH were predictors of viral community composition, indicative of biological and biogeochemical feedbacks as permafrost thaws. Host prediction—achieved through clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPRs), tetranucleotide frequency patterns, and other sequence similarities to binned microbial population genomes—was able to link 38% of the viral populations to a microbial host. 5% of the implicated hosts were archaea, predominantly methanogens and ammonia-oxidizing Nitrososphaera, 45% were Acidobacteria or Verrucomicrobia (mostly predicted heterotrophic complex carbon degraders), and 21% were Proteobacteria, including methane oxidizers. Recovered viral genome fragments also contained auxiliary metabolic genes involved in carbon and nitrogen cycling. Together, these data reveal multiple levels of previously unknown viral contributions to biogeochemical cycling, including to carbon gas emissions, in peatland soils undergoing and contributing to climate change. This work represents a significant step towards understanding viral roles in microbially-mediated biogeochemical cycling in soil.

A two-fold increase of carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature variations.

PubMed

Wang, Xuhui; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Myneni, Ranga B; Cox, Peter; Heimann, Martin; Miller, John; Peng, Shushi; Wang, Tao; Yang, Hui; Chen, Anping

2014-02-13

Earth system models project that the tropical land carbon sink will decrease in size in response to an increase in warming and drought during this century, probably causing a positive climate feedback. But available data are too limited at present to test the predicted changes in the tropical carbon balance in response to climate change. Long-term atmospheric carbon dioxide data provide a global record that integrates the interannual variability of the global carbon balance. Multiple lines of evidence demonstrate that most of this variability originates in the terrestrial biosphere. In particular, the year-to-year variations in the atmospheric carbon dioxide growth rate (CGR) are thought to be the result of fluctuations in the carbon fluxes of tropical land areas. Recently, the response of CGR to tropical climate interannual variability was used to put a constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. Here we use the long-term CGR record from Mauna Loa and the South Pole to show that the sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature interannual variability has increased by a factor of 1.9 ± 0.3 in the past five decades. We find that this sensitivity was greater when tropical land regions experienced drier conditions. This suggests that the sensitivity of CGR to interannual temperature variations is regulated by moisture conditions, even though the direct correlation between CGR and tropical precipitation is weak. We also find that present terrestrial carbon cycle models do not capture the observed enhancement in CGR sensitivity in the past five decades. More realistic model predictions of future carbon cycle and climate feedbacks require a better understanding of the processes driving the response of tropical ecosystems to drought and warming.

Chemistry and Long-Term Decomposition of Roots of Douglas-Fir Grown under Elevated Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Warming Conditions

EPA Science Inventory

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and warming may affect the quality of litters of forest plants and their subsequent decomposition in ecosystems, thereby potentially affecting the global carbon cycle. However, few data on root tissues are available to test this feedback to...

Controls on winter ecosystem respiration in temperate and boreal ecosystems

Treesearch

T. Wang; P. Ciais; S.L. Piao; C. Ottle; P. Brender; F. Maignan; A. Arain; A. Cescatti; D. Gianelle; C. Gough; L Gu; P. Lafleur; T. Laurila; B. Marcolla; H. Margolis; L. Montagnani; E. Moors; N. Saigusa; T. Vesala; G. Wohlfahrt; C. Koven; A. Black; E. Dellwik; A. Don; D. Hollinger; A. Knohl; R. Monson; J. Munger; A. Suyker; A. Varlagin; S. Verma

2011-01-01

Winter CO2 fluxes represent an important component of the annual carbon budget in northern ecosystems. Understanding winter respiration processes and their responses to climate change is also central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle and climate feedbacks in the future. However, the factors influencing the spatial and temporal...

Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change: implications for the global carbon cycle

Treesearch

Edward A.G. Schuur; James Bockheim; Josep G. Canadell; Eugenie Euskirchen; Christopher B. Field; Sergey V. Goryachkin; Stefan Hagemann; Peter Kuhry; Peter M. Lafleur; Hanna Lee; Galina Mazhitova; Frederick E. Nelson; Annette Rinke; Vladimir E. Romanovsky; Nikolay Shiklomanov; Charles Tarnocai; Sergey Venevsky; Jason G. Vogel; Sergei A. Zimov

2008-01-01

Thawing permafrost and the resulting microbial decomposition of previously frozen organic carbon (C) is one of the most significant potential feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a changing climate. In this article we present an overview of the global permafrost C pool and of the processes that might transfer this C into the atmosphere, as well as...

Impact of a Regional Drought on Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes and Atmospheric Carbon: Results from a Coupled Carbon Cycle Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Eunjee; Koster, Randal D.; Ott, Lesley E.; Weir, Brad; Mahanama, Sarith; Chang, Yehui; Zeng, Fan-Wei

2017-01-01

Understanding the underlying processes that control the carbon cycle is key to predicting future global change. Much of the uncertainty in the magnitude and variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) stems from uncertainty in terrestrial carbon fluxes, and the relative impacts of temperature and moisture variations on regional and global scales are poorly understood. Here we investigate the impact of a regional drought on terrestrial carbon fluxes and CO2 mixing ratios over North America using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Model. Results show a sequence of changes in carbon fluxes and atmospheric CO2, induced by the drought. The relative contributions of meteorological changes to the neighboring carbon dynamics are also presented. The coupled modeling approach allows a direct quantification of the impact of the regional drought on local and proximate carbon exchange at the land surface via the carbon-water feedback processes.

Constraints on long-term carbon-climate feedbacks from spatially resolved CO2 growth rate fluctuations linked to temperature and precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keppel-Aleks, G.; Hoffman, F. M.

2014-12-01

Feedbacks between the global carbon cycle and climate represent one of the largest uncertainties in climate prediction. A promising method for reducing uncertainty in predictions of carbon-climate feedbacks is based on identifying an "emergent constraint" that leverages correlations between mechanistically linked long-term feedbacks and short-term variations within the model ensemble. By applying contemporary observations to evaluate model skill in simulating short-term variations, we may be able to better assess the probability of simulated long-term feedbacks. We probed the constraint on long-term terrestrial carbon stocks provided by climate-driven fluctuations in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate at contemporary timescales. We considered the impact of both temperature and precipitation anomalies on terrestrial ecosystem exchange and further separated the direct influence of fire where possible. When we explicitly considered the role of atmospheric transport in smoothing the imprint of climate-driven flux anomalies on atmospheric CO2 patterns, we found that the extent of temporal averaging of both the observations and ESM output leads to estimates for the long-term climate sensitivity of tropical land carbon storage that are different by a factor of two. In the context of these results, we discuss strategies for applying emergent constraints for benchmarking biogeochemical feedbacks in ESMs. Specifically, our results underscore the importance of selecting appropriate observational benchmarks and, for future model intercomparison projects, outputting fields that most closely correspond to available observational datasets.

The future of the North American carbon cycle - projections and associated climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntzinger, D. N.; Chatterjee, A.; Cooley, S. R.; Dunne, J. P.; Hoffman, F. M.; Luo, Y.; Moore, D. J.; Ohrel, S. B.; Poulter, B.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Tzortziou, M.; Walker, A. P.; Mayes, M. A.

2016-12-01

Approximately half of anthropogenic emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is taken up annually by carbon sinks on the land and in the oceans. However, there are key uncertainties in how carbon uptake by terrestrial, ocean, and freshwater systems will respond to, and interact with, climate into the future. Here, we outline the current state of understanding on the future carbon budget of these major reservoirs within North America and the globe. We examine the drivers of future carbon cycle changes, including carbon-climate feedbacks, atmospheric composition, nutrient availability, and human activity and management decisions. Progress has been made at identifying vulnerabilities in carbon pools, including high-latitude permafrost, peatlands, freshwater and coastal wetlands, and ecosystems subject to disturbance events, such as insects, fire and drought. However, many of these processes/pools are not well represented in current models, and model intercomparison studies have shown a range in carbon cycle response to factors such as climate and CO2 fertilization. Furthermore, as model complexity increases, understanding the drivers of model spread becomes increasingly more difficult. As a result, uncertainties in future carbon cycle projections are large. It is also uncertain how management decisions and policies will impact future carbon stocks and flows. In order to guide policy, a better understanding of the risk and magnitude of North American carbon cycle changes is needed. This requires that future carbon cycle projections be conditioned on current observations and be reported with sufficient confidence and fully specified uncertainties.

Benchmarking carbon-nitrogen interactions in Earth System Models to observations: An inter-comparison of nitrogen limitation in global land surface models with carbon and nitrogen cycles (CLM-CN and O-CN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, R. Q.; Zaehle, S.; Templer, P. H.; Goodale, C. L.

2011-12-01

Predictions of climate change depend on accurately modeling the feedbacks among the carbon cycle, nitrogen cycle, and climate system. Several global land surface models have shown that nitrogen limitation determines how land carbon fluxes respond to rising CO2, nitrogen deposition, and climate change, thereby influencing predictions of climate change. However, the magnitude of the carbon-nitrogen-climate feedbacks varies considerably by model, leading to critical and timely questions of why they differ and how they compare to field observations. To address these questions, we initiated a model inter-comparison of spatial patterns and drivers of nitrogen limitation. The experiment assessed the regional consequences of sustained nitrogen additions in a set of 25-year global nitrogen fertilization simulations. The model experiments were designed to cover effects from small changes in nitrogen inputs associated with plausible increases in nitrogen deposition to large changes associated with field-based nitrogen fertilization experiments. The analyses of model simulations included assessing the geographically varying degree of nitrogen limitation on plant and soil carbon cycling and the mechanisms underlying model differences. Here, we present results from two global land-surface models (CLM-CN and O-CN) with differing approaches to modeling carbon-nitrogen interactions. The predictions from each model were compared to a set of globally distributed observational data that includes nitrogen fertilization experiments, 15N tracer studies, small catchment nitrogen input-output studies, and syntheses across nitrogen deposition gradients. Together these datasets test many aspects of carbon-nitrogen coupling and are able to differentiate between the two models. Overall, this study is the first to explicitly benchmark carbon and nitrogen interactions in Earth System Models using a range of observations and is a foundation for future inter-comparisons.

A warm or a cold early Earth? New insights from a 3-D climate-carbon model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charnay, Benjamin; Le Hir, Guillaume; Fluteau, Frédéric; Forget, François; Catling, David C.

2017-09-01

Oxygen isotopes in marine cherts have been used to infer hot oceans during the Archean with temperatures between 60 °C (333 K) and 80 °C (353 K). Such climates are challenging for the early Earth warmed by the faint young Sun. The interpretation of the data has therefore been controversial. 1D climate modeling inferred that such hot climates would require very high levels of CO2 (2-6 bars). Previous carbon cycle modeling concluded that such stable hot climates were impossible and that the carbon cycle should lead to cold climates during the Hadean and the Archean. Here, we revisit the climate and carbon cycle of the early Earth at 3.8 Ga using a 3D climate-carbon model. We find that CO2 partial pressures of around 1 bar could have produced hot climates given a low land fraction and cloud feedback effects. However, such high CO2 partial pressures should not have been stable because of the weathering of terrestrial and oceanic basalts, producing an efficient stabilizing feedback. Moreover, the weathering of impact ejecta during the Late Heavy Bombardment (LHB) would have strongly reduced the CO2 partial pressure leading to cold climates and potentially snowball Earth events after large impacts. Our results therefore favor cold or temperate climates with global mean temperatures between around 8 °C (281 K) and 30 °C (303 K) and with 0.1-0.36 bar of CO2 for the late Hadean and early Archean. Finally, our model suggests that the carbon cycle was efficient for preserving clement conditions on the early Earth without necessarily requiring any other greenhouse gas or warming process.

Diver Down: Remote Sensing of Carbon Climate Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schimel, D.; Chatterjee, A.; Baker, D. F.; Basu, S.; Denning, A. S.; Schuh, A. E.; Crowell, S.; Jacobson, A. R.; Bowman, K. W.; Liu, J.; O'Dell, C.

2016-12-01

What controls the rate of increase of CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere? It may seem self-evident but actually remains mysterious. The increases of CO2 and CH4 result from a combination of forcing from anthropogenic emissions and Earth System feedbacks that dampen or amplify the effects of those emissions on atmospheric concentrations. The fraction of anthropogenic CO2 remaining in the atmosphere has remained remarkably constant over the last 59 years but has shown recent dynamics and if it changes in the future, will affect the climate impact of any given fossil fuel regime. While greenhouse gases affect the global atmosphere, their sources and sinks are remarkably heterogeneous in time and space, and traditional in situ observing systems do not provide the coverage and resolution to quantify carbon-climate feedbacks or reduce the uncertainty of model predictions. Here we describe an methodology for estimating critical carbon-climate feedback effects of current spaceborne XCO2 measurements, developed by the OCO-2 Flux Group, and applied to OCO-2 and GOSAT data. The methodology allows integration of the space-based carbon budgets with other global data sets, and exposes the impact of residual bias error on the estimated fluxes, allowing the uncertainty of the estimated feedbacks to be quantified. The approach is limited by the short timeseries currently available, but suggests dramatic changes to the carbon cycle over the recent past. We present the methodology, early results and implications for a future, sustained carbon observing system.

Enhanced litter input rather than changes in litter chemistry drive soil carbon and nitrogen cycles under elevated CO2: a microcosm study

Treesearch

Lingli Lui; John S. King; Fitzgerald L. Booker; Christian P. Giardina; H. Lee Allen; Shuijin Hu

2009-01-01

Elevated CO2 has been shown to stimulate plant productivity and change litter chemistry. These changes in substrate availability may then alter soil microbial processes and possibly lead to feedback effects on N availability. However, the strength of this feedback, and even its direction, remains unknown. Further, uncertainty remains whether...

The Evolution of Land Plants and the Silicate Weathering Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibarra, D. E.; Caves Rugenstein, J. K.; Bachan, A.; Baresch, A.; Lau, K. V.; Thomas, D.; Lee, J. E.; Boyce, C. K.; Chamberlain, C. P.

2017-12-01

It has long been recognized that the advent of vascular plants in the Paleozoic must have changed silicate weathering and fundamentally altered the long-term carbon cycle. Efforts to quantify these effects have been formulated in carbon cycle models that are, in part, calibrated by weathering studies of modern plant communities. In models of the long-term carbon cycle, plants play a key role in controlling atmospheric CO2, particularly in the late Paleozoic. We test the impact of some established and recent theories regarding plant-enhanced weathering by coupling a one-dimensional vapor transport model to a reactive transport model of silicate weathering. In this coupled model, we evaluate consequences of plant evolutionary innovation that have not been mechanistically incorporated into most existing models: 1) the role of evolutionary shifts in plant transpiration in enhancing silicate weathering by increasing downwind transport and recycling of water vapor to continental interiors; 2) the importance of deeply-rooted plants and their associated microbial communities in increasing soil CO2 and weathering zone length scales; and, 3) the cumulative effect of these processes. Our modeling approach is framed by energy/supply constraints calibrated for minimally vegetated-, vascular plant forested-, and angiosperm-worlds. We find that the emergence of widespread transpiration and associated inland vapor recycling approximately doubles weathering solute concentrations when deep-rooted vascular plants (Devonian-Carboniferous) fully replace a minimally vegetated (pre-Devonian) world. The later evolution of angiosperms (Cretaceous and Cenozoic) and subsequent increase in transpiration fluxes increase weathering solute concentrations by approximately an additional 20%. Our estimates of the changes in weatherability caused by land plant evolution are of a similar magnitude, but explained with new process-based mechanisms, than those used in existing carbon cycle models. We suggest a feedback where the increase in solute concentrations is compensated by a decrease in runoff and temperature, permitting lower steady-state atmospheric pCO2. Consequently, plants have increased the strength of the climatic feedback on silicate weathering since the late Paleozoic.

Carbon and nitrogen balances for six shrublands across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beier, Claus; Emmett, Bridget A.; Tietema, Albert; Schmidt, Inger K.; PeñUelas, Josep; LáNg, Edit KováCs; Duce, Pierpaolo; de Angelis, Paolo; Gorissen, Antonie; Estiarte, Marc; de Dato, Giovanbattista D.; Sowerby, Alwyn; KröEl-Dulay, GyöRgy; Lellei-KováCs, Eszter; Kull, Olevi; Mand, Pille; Petersen, Henning; Gjelstrup, Peter; Spano, Donatella

2009-12-01

Shrublands constitute significant and important parts of European landscapes providing a large number of important ecosystem services. Biogeochemical cycles in these ecosystems have gained little attention relative to forests and grassland systems, but data on such cycles are required for developing and testing ecosystem models. As climate change progresses, the potential feedback from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere through changes in carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and general knowledge on biogeochemical cycles becomes increasingly important. Here we present carbon and nitrogen balances of six shrublands along a climatic gradient across the European continent. The aim of the study was to provide a basis for assessing the range and variability in carbon storage in European shrublands. Across the sites the net carbon storage in the systems ranged from 1,163 g C m-2 to 18,546 g C m-2, and the systems ranged from being net sinks (126 g C m-2 a-1) to being net sources (-536 g C m-2 a-1) of carbon with the largest storage and sink of carbon at wet and cold climatic conditions. The soil carbon store dominates the carbon budget at all sites and in particular at the site with a cold and wet climate where soil C constitutes 95% of the total carbon in the ecosystem. Respiration of carbon from the soil organic matter pool dominated the carbon loss at all sites while carbon loss from aboveground litter decomposition appeared less important. Total belowground carbon allocation was more than 5 times aboveground litterfall carbon which is significantly greater than the factor of 2 reported in a global analysis of forest data. Nitrogen storage was also dominated by the soil pools generally showing small losses except when atmospheric N input was high. The study shows that in the future a climate-driven land cover change between grasslands and shrublands in Europe will likely lead to increased ecosystem C where shrublands are promoted and less where grasses are promoted. However, it also emphasizes that if feedbacks on the global carbon cycle are to be predicted it is critically important to quantify and understand belowground carbon allocation and processes as well as soil carbon pools, particularly on wet organic soils, rather than plant functional change as the soil stores dominate the overall budget and fluxes of carbon.

Effects of model structural uncertainty on carbon cycle projections: biological nitrogen fixation as a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieder, William R.; Cleveland, Cory C.; Lawrence, David M.; Bonan, Gordon B.

2015-04-01

Uncertainties in terrestrial carbon (C) cycle projections increase uncertainty of potential climate feedbacks. Efforts to improve model performance often include increased representation of biogeochemical processes, such as coupled carbon-nitrogen (N) cycles. In doing so, models are becoming more complex, generating structural uncertainties in model form that reflect incomplete knowledge of how to represent underlying processes. Here, we explore structural uncertainties associated with biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) and quantify their effects on C cycle projections. We find that alternative plausible structures to represent BNF result in nearly equivalent terrestrial C fluxes and pools through the twentieth century, but the strength of the terrestrial C sink varies by nearly a third (50 Pg C) by the end of the twenty-first century under a business-as-usual climate change scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5. These results indicate that actual uncertainty in future C cycle projections may be larger than previously estimated, and this uncertainty will limit C cycle projections until model structures can be evaluated and refined.

Steady- and non-steady-state carbonate-silicate controls on atmospheric CO2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sundquist, E.T.

1991-01-01

Two contrasting hypotheses have recently been proposed for the past long-term relation between atmospheric CO2 and the carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle. One approach (Berner, 1990) suggests that CO2 levels have varied in a manner that has maintained chemical weathering and carbonate sedimentation at a steady state with respect to tectonically controlled decarbonation reactions. A second approach (Raymo et al., 1988), applied specificlly to the late Cenozoic, suggests a decrease in CO2 caused by an uplift-induced increase in chemical weathering, without regard to the rate of decarbonation. According to the steady-state (first) hypothesis, increased weathering and carbonate sedimentation are generally associated with increasing atmospheric CO2, whereas the uplift (second) hypothesis implies decreasing CO2 under the same conditions. An ocean-atmosphere-sediment model has been used to assess the response of atmospheric CO2 and carbonate sedimentation to global perturbations in chemical weathering and decarbonation reactions. Although this assessment is theoretical and cannot yet be related to the geologic record, the model simulations compare steady-state and non-steady-state carbonate-silicate cycle response. The e-fold response time of the 'CO2-weathering' feedback mechanism is between 300 and 400 ka. The response of carbonate sedimentation is much more rapid. These response times provide a measure of the strength of steady-state assumptions, and imply that certain systematic relations are sustained throughout steady-state and non-steady-state scenarios for the carbonate-silicate cycle. The simulations suggest that feedbacks can maintain the system near a steady state, but that non-steady-state effects may contribute to long-term trends. The steady-state and uplift hypotheses are not necessarily incompatible over time scales of a few million years. ?? 1991.

Long-term pattern and magnitude of soil carbon feedback to the climate system in a warming world.

PubMed

Melillo, J M; Frey, S D; DeAngelis, K M; Werner, W J; Bernard, M J; Bowles, F P; Pold, G; Knorr, M A; Grandy, A S

2017-10-06

In a 26-year soil warming experiment in a mid-latitude hardwood forest, we documented changes in soil carbon cycling to investigate the potential consequences for the climate system. We found that soil warming results in a four-phase pattern of soil organic matter decay and carbon dioxide fluxes to the atmosphere, with phases of substantial soil carbon loss alternating with phases of no detectable loss. Several factors combine to affect the timing, magnitude, and thermal acclimation of soil carbon loss. These include depletion of microbially accessible carbon pools, reductions in microbial biomass, a shift in microbial carbon use efficiency, and changes in microbial community composition. Our results support projections of a long-term, self-reinforcing carbon feedback from mid-latitude forests to the climate system as the world warms. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Multicentury changes in ocean and land contributions to the climate-carbon feedback

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Randerson, J. T.; Lindsay, K.; Munoz, E.

Improved constraints on carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (v1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and its extension. In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical processes experienced the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO 2. Each simulation had a different degree of radiative coupling for CO 2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols, enabling diagnosis of feedbacks. In a fully coupled simulation, global mean surfacemore » air temperature increased by 9.3 K from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4 K of this warming occurring after 2100. Excluding CO 2, warming from other greenhouse gases and aerosols was 1.6 K by 2300, near a 2 K target needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Ocean contributions to the climate-carbon feedback increased considerably over time and exceeded contributions from land after 2100. The sensitivity of ocean carbon to climate change was found to be proportional to changes in ocean heat content, as a consequence of this heat modifying transport pathways for anthropogenic CO 2 inflow and solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon. By 2300, climate change reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change reducing stocks by 232 Pg C. Regional influence of climate change on carbon stocks was largest in the North Atlantic Ocean and tropical forests of South America. Our analysis suggests that after 2100, oceans may become as important as terrestrial ecosystems in regulating the magnitude of the climate-carbon feedback.« less

Multicentury changes in ocean and land contributions to the climate-carbon feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.; Lindsay, K.; Munoz, E.; Fu, W.; Moore, J. K.; Hoffman, F. M.; Mahowald, N. M.; Doney, S. C.

2015-06-01

Improved constraints on carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (v1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and its extension. In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical processes experienced the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO2. Each simulation had a different degree of radiative coupling for CO2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols, enabling diagnosis of feedbacks. In a fully coupled simulation, global mean surface air temperature increased by 9.3 K from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4 K of this warming occurring after 2100. Excluding CO2, warming from other greenhouse gases and aerosols was 1.6 K by 2300, near a 2 K target needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Ocean contributions to the climate-carbon feedback increased considerably over time and exceeded contributions from land after 2100. The sensitivity of ocean carbon to climate change was found to be proportional to changes in ocean heat content, as a consequence of this heat modifying transport pathways for anthropogenic CO2 inflow and solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon. By 2300, climate change reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change reducing stocks by 232 Pg C. Regional influence of climate change on carbon stocks was largest in the North Atlantic Ocean and tropical forests of South America. Our analysis suggests that after 2100, oceans may become as important as terrestrial ecosystems in regulating the magnitude of the climate-carbon feedback.

A conceptual framework for regional feedbacks in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B.

2012-04-01

Terrestrial ecosystems and climate influence each other through biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical (e.g. albedo, water fluxes) processes. These interactions might be disturbed when a climate human-induced forcing takes place (e.g. deforestation); and the ecosystem responses to the climate system might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial forcing. Research on feedbacks has been mainly based on the carbon cycle at the global scale. However, biogeophysical feedbacks might have a great impact at the local or regional scale, which is the main focus of this article. A conceptual framework, with the major interactions and processes between terrestrial ecosystems and climate, is presented to further explore feedbacks at the regional level. Four hot spots with potential changes in land use/management and climate are selected: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, diverse climate human-induced forcings and feedbacks were identified based on relevant published literature. For Europe, the positive soil moisture-evapotranspiration (ET) is important for natural vegetation during a heat wave event, while the positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback plays a more important role for droughts in the Amazon region. Agricultural expansion in SSA will depend on the impacts of the changing climate on crop yields and the adopted agro-technologies. The adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems might turn the positive soil moisture- ET feedback into a negative one. In contrast, South and Southeast Asia might face water shortage in the future, and thus turning the soil moisture-ET feedback into a positive one. Further research is needed for the major processes that affect the ultimate sign of the feedbacks, as well as for the interactions, which effect remains uncertain, such as ET-precipitation interaction. In addition, socio-economic feedbacks need to be added in the ecosystems-climate system since they play an essential role in human decisions on land use and land cover change (LULCC).

FOREST ECOLOGY. Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models.

PubMed

Anderegg, W R L; Schwalm, C; Biondi, F; Camarero, J J; Koch, G; Litvak, M; Ogle, K; Shaw, J D; Shevliakova, E; Williams, A P; Wolf, A; Ziaco, E; Pacala, S

2015-07-31

The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but important for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with the understanding of basic plant physiology. We examined the recovery of stem growth in trees after severe drought at 1338 forest sites across the globe, comprising 49,339 site-years, and compared the results with simulated recovery in climate-vegetation models. We found pervasive and substantial "legacy effects" of reduced growth and incomplete recovery for 1 to 4 years after severe drought. Legacy effects were most prevalent in dry ecosystems, among Pinaceae, and among species with low hydraulic safety margins. In contrast, limited or no legacy effects after drought were simulated by current climate-vegetation models. Our results highlight hysteresis in ecosystem-level carbon cycling and delayed recovery from climate extremes. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The Contribution of Soils to North America's Current and Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayes, M. A.; Reed, S.; Thornton, P. E.; Lajtha, K.; Bailey, V. L.; Shrestha, G.; Jastrow, J. D.; Torn, M. S.

2015-12-01

This presentation will cover key aspects of the terrestrial soil carbon cycle in North America and the US for the upcoming State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCRII). SOCCRII seeks to summarize how natural processes and human interactions affect the global carbon cycle, how socio-economic trends affect greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and how ecosystems are influenced by and respond to greenhouse gas emissions, management decisions, and concomitant climate effects. Here, we will summarize the contemporary understanding of carbon stocks, fluxes, and drivers in the soil ecosystem compartment. We will highlight recent advances in modeling the magnitude of soil carbon stocks and fluxes, as well as the importance of remaining uncertainties in predicting soil carbon cycling and its relationship with climate. Attention will be given to the role of uncertainties in predicting future fluxes from soils, and how those uncertainties vary by region and ecosystem. We will also address how climate feedbacks and management decisions can enhance or minimize future climatic effects based on current understanding and observations, and will highlight select research needs to improve our understanding of the balance of carbon in soils in North America.

Effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycling: interactions and feedbacks.

PubMed

Zepp, R G; Erickson, D J; Paul, N D; Sulzberger, B

2011-02-01

Solar UV radiation, climate and other drivers of global change are undergoing significant changes and models forecast that these changes will continue for the remainder of this century. Here we assess the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles and the interactions of these effects with climate change, including feedbacks on climate. Such interactions occur in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. While there is significant uncertainty in the quantification of these effects, they could accelerate the rate of atmospheric CO(2) increase and subsequent climate change beyond current predictions. The effects of predicted changes in climate and solar UV radiation on carbon cycling in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are expected to vary significantly between regions. The balance of positive and negative effects on terrestrial carbon cycling remains uncertain, but the interactions between UV radiation and climate change are likely to contribute to decreasing sink strength in many oceanic regions. Interactions between climate and solar UV radiation will affect cycling of elements other than carbon, and so will influence the concentration of greenhouse and ozone-depleting gases. For example, increases in oxygen-deficient regions of the ocean caused by climate change are projected to enhance the emissions of nitrous oxide, an important greenhouse and ozone-depleting gas. Future changes in UV-induced transformations of aquatic and terrestrial contaminants could have both beneficial and adverse effects. Taken in total, it is clear that the future changes in UV radiation coupled with human-caused global change will have large impacts on biogeochemical cycles at local, regional and global scales.

Differential Millennial-scale Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Cycling Dynamics to Warming from two Contrasting Lake Catchments in Arctic Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longo, W. M.; Huang, Y.; Russell, J. M.; Giblin, A. E.; McNichol, A. P.; Xu, L.; Daniels, W.

2016-12-01

Earth's permafrost carbon (C) reservoir is more than twice as large as global atmospheric C and its vulnerability to warming makes it a significant potential feedback to climate change. Predicted rates of warming could result in the release of 5 to 15% of permafrost C to the atmosphere by 2100 (Schuur et al., 2015); however the uncertainty around this estimate hinders our ability to quantify the arctic temperature-carbon feedback. To elucidate the long-term response of terrestrial C to warming in regions underlain by continuous permafrost, we present geologic records of changes in temperature and terrestrial C cycling dynamics from sediment cores from two contrasting lake catchments in arctic Alaska. The sediment records feature independent chronologies, biomarker-based temperature reconstructions, and geochemical measurements of vascular plant biomarkers (lignin phenols) that provide insight into terrestrial carbon quality, its release from permafrost soils and its transit time on the landscape. Our results indicate that both abrupt and sustained increases in temperature over the past 20,000 years resulted in increased carbon normalized yields of lignin phenols (Λ8, Λ6), which indicate increased mobilization of terrestrial organic carbon from permafrost soils. Lignin phenol indicators of terrestrial carbon quality (Ad:Al(s), Ad:Al(v)), indicated that carbon quality decreased with increasing temperature. These results demonstrate covariation between temperature and both the decay of terrestrial organic matter and lignin alteration resulting from dissolution and sorption processes. Compound specific radiocarbon analyses of lignin phenols and their offsets from depositional ages quantify transit times of terrestrial carbon on the landscape. These measurements revealed the presence of a persistent "pre-aged" terrestrial organic carbon pool, which is likely sourced from degrading permafrost. We also observe different responses of terrestrial organic carbon cycling to temperature that depend on landscape characteristics. C cycling responses are pronounced in the low-relief, Pleistocene-aged catchment of lake E5, and more muted in Lake Fog 2, which exists in a higher-relief and younger catchment. Mechanisms differentiating the responses of these catchments are discussed.

Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate.

PubMed

Frank, David C; Esper, Jan; Raible, Christoph C; Büntgen, Ulf; Trouet, Valerie; Stocker, Benjamin; Joos, Fortunat

2010-01-28

The processes controlling the carbon flux and carbon storage of the atmosphere, ocean and terrestrial biosphere are temperature sensitive and are likely to provide a positive feedback leading to amplified anthropogenic warming. Owing to this feedback, at timescales ranging from interannual to the 20-100-kyr cycles of Earth's orbital variations, warming of the climate system causes a net release of CO(2) into the atmosphere; this in turn amplifies warming. But the magnitude of the climate sensitivity of the global carbon cycle (termed gamma), and thus of its positive feedback strength, is under debate, giving rise to large uncertainties in global warming projections. Here we quantify the median gamma as 7.7 p.p.m.v. CO(2) per degrees C warming, with a likely range of 1.7-21.4 p.p.m.v. CO(2) per degrees C. Sensitivity experiments exclude significant influence of pre-industrial land-use change on these estimates. Our results, based on the coupling of a probabilistic approach with an ensemble of proxy-based temperature reconstructions and pre-industrial CO(2) data from three ice cores, provide robust constraints for gamma on the policy-relevant multi-decadal to centennial timescales. By using an ensemble of >200,000 members, quantification of gamma is not only improved, but also likelihoods can be assigned, thereby providing a benchmark for future model simulations. Although uncertainties do not at present allow exclusion of gamma calculated from any of ten coupled carbon-climate models, we find that gamma is about twice as likely to fall in the lowermost than in the uppermost quartile of their range. Our results are incompatibly lower (P < 0.05) than recent pre-industrial empirical estimates of approximately 40 p.p.m.v. CO(2) per degrees C (refs 6, 7), and correspondingly suggest approximately 80% less potential amplification of ongoing global warming.

Simulated effect of calcification feedback on atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidification

PubMed Central

Zhang, Han; Cao, Long

2016-01-01

Ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2 reduces pH and saturation state of calcium carbonate materials of seawater, which could reduce the calcification rate of some marine organisms, triggering a negative feedback on the growth of atmospheric CO2. We quantify the effect of this CO2-calcification feedback by conducting a series of Earth system model simulations that incorporate different parameterization schemes describing the dependence of calcification rate on saturation state of CaCO3. In a scenario with SRES A2 CO2 emission until 2100 and zero emission afterwards, by year 3500, in the simulation without CO2-calcification feedback, model projects an accumulated ocean CO2 uptake of 1462 PgC, atmospheric CO2 of 612 ppm, and surface pH of 7.9. Inclusion of CO2-calcification feedback increases ocean CO2 uptake by 9 to 285 PgC, reduces atmospheric CO2 by 4 to 70 ppm, and mitigates the reduction in surface pH by 0.003 to 0.06, depending on the form of parameterization scheme used. It is also found that the effect of CO2-calcification feedback on ocean carbon uptake is comparable and could be much larger than the effect from CO2-induced warming. Our results highlight the potentially important role CO2-calcification feedback plays in ocean carbon cycle and projections of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. PMID:26838480

C4MIP - The Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project: experimental protocol for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Chris D.; Arora, Vivek; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Bopp, Laurent; Brovkin, Victor; Dunne, John; Graven, Heather; Hoffman, Forrest; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G.; Jung, Martin; Kawamiya, Michio; Koven, Charlie; Pongratz, Julia; Raddatz, Thomas; Randerson, James T.; Zaehle, Sönke

2016-08-01

Coordinated experimental design and implementation has become a cornerstone of global climate modelling. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) enable systematic and robust analysis of results across many models, by reducing the influence of ad hoc differences in model set-up or experimental boundary conditions. As it enters its 6th phase, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has grown significantly in scope with the design and documentation of individual simulations delegated to individual climate science communities. The Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) takes responsibility for design, documentation, and analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks and interactions in climate simulations. These feedbacks are potentially large and play a leading-order contribution in determining the atmospheric composition in response to human emissions of CO2 and in the setting of emissions targets to stabilize climate or avoid dangerous climate change. For over a decade, C4MIP has coordinated coupled climate-carbon cycle simulations, and in this paper we describe the C4MIP simulations that will be formally part of CMIP6. While the climate-carbon cycle community has created this experimental design, the simulations also fit within the wider CMIP activity, conform to some common standards including documentation and diagnostic requests, and are designed to complement the CMIP core experiments known as the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK). C4MIP has three key strands of scientific motivation and the requested simulations are designed to satisfy their needs: (1) pre-industrial and historical simulations (formally part of the common set of CMIP6 experiments) to enable model evaluation, (2) idealized coupled and partially coupled simulations with 1 % per year increases in CO2 to enable diagnosis of feedback strength and its components, (3) future scenario simulations to project how the Earth system will respond to anthropogenic activity over the 21st century and beyond. This paper documents in detail these simulations, explains their rationale and planned analysis, and describes how to set up and run the simulations. Particular attention is paid to boundary conditions, input data, and requested output diagnostics. It is important that modelling groups participating in C4MIP adhere as closely as possible to this experimental design.

C4MIP – The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project: Experimental protocol for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Chris D.; Arora, Vivek; Friedlingstein, Pierre

Coordinated experimental design and implementation has become a cornerstone of global climate modelling. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) enable systematic and robust analysis of results across many models, by reducing the influence of ad hoc differences in model set-up or experimental boundary conditions. As it enters its 6th phase, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has grown significantly in scope with the design and documentation of individual simulations delegated to individual climate science communities. The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) takes responsibility for design, documentation, and analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks and interactions in climate simulations. These feedbacks aremore » potentially large and play a leading-order contribution in determining the atmospheric composition in response to human emissions of CO 2 and in the setting of emissions targets to stabilize climate or avoid dangerous climate change. For over a decade, C4MIP has coordinated coupled climate–carbon cycle simulations, and in this paper we describe the C4MIP simulations that will be formally part of CMIP6. While the climate–carbon cycle community has created this experimental design, the simulations also fit within the wider CMIP activity, conform to some common standards including documentation and diagnostic requests, and are designed to complement the CMIP core experiments known as the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK). C4MIP has three key strands of scientific motivation and the requested simulations are designed to satisfy their needs: (1) pre-industrial and historical simulations (formally part of the common set of CMIP6 experiments) to enable model evaluation, (2) idealized coupled and partially coupled simulations with 1 % per year increases in CO 2 to enable diagnosis of feedback strength and its components, (3) future scenario simulations to project how the Earth system will respond to anthropogenic activity over the 21st century and beyond. This study documents in detail these simulations, explains their rationale and planned analysis, and describes how to set up and run the simulations. Particular attention is paid to boundary conditions, input data, and requested output diagnostics. It is important that modelling groups participating in C4MIP adhere as closely as possible to this experimental design.« less

C4MIP – The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project: Experimental protocol for CMIP6

DOE PAGES

Jones, Chris D.; Arora, Vivek; Friedlingstein, Pierre; ...

2016-08-25

Coordinated experimental design and implementation has become a cornerstone of global climate modelling. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) enable systematic and robust analysis of results across many models, by reducing the influence of ad hoc differences in model set-up or experimental boundary conditions. As it enters its 6th phase, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has grown significantly in scope with the design and documentation of individual simulations delegated to individual climate science communities. The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) takes responsibility for design, documentation, and analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks and interactions in climate simulations. These feedbacks aremore » potentially large and play a leading-order contribution in determining the atmospheric composition in response to human emissions of CO 2 and in the setting of emissions targets to stabilize climate or avoid dangerous climate change. For over a decade, C4MIP has coordinated coupled climate–carbon cycle simulations, and in this paper we describe the C4MIP simulations that will be formally part of CMIP6. While the climate–carbon cycle community has created this experimental design, the simulations also fit within the wider CMIP activity, conform to some common standards including documentation and diagnostic requests, and are designed to complement the CMIP core experiments known as the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK). C4MIP has three key strands of scientific motivation and the requested simulations are designed to satisfy their needs: (1) pre-industrial and historical simulations (formally part of the common set of CMIP6 experiments) to enable model evaluation, (2) idealized coupled and partially coupled simulations with 1 % per year increases in CO 2 to enable diagnosis of feedback strength and its components, (3) future scenario simulations to project how the Earth system will respond to anthropogenic activity over the 21st century and beyond. This study documents in detail these simulations, explains their rationale and planned analysis, and describes how to set up and run the simulations. Particular attention is paid to boundary conditions, input data, and requested output diagnostics. It is important that modelling groups participating in C4MIP adhere as closely as possible to this experimental design.« less

The magnitude and phasing of variations in climate and ocean carbonate chemistry during Eocene Thermal Maximum 2: Insights into C cycle feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harper, D. T.; Zeebe, R. E.; Hoenisch, B.; Zachos, J. C.

2016-12-01

The early Eocene features several large abrupt global warming events ("hyperthermals") that were characterized by negative δ13C excursions suggesting isotopically `light' carbon release to the atmosphere. The most prominent events, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2), present an opportunity to study the operation of carbon cycle processes, and in particular negative feedbacks in the carbon cycle, such as silicate and carbonate weathering. Here we study sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean carbonate chemistry changes across ETM2, by measuring Mg/Ca, B/Ca, and δ13C in planktic foraminifera at two IODP sites (1209 in the Pacific and 1265 in the S. Atlantic). We observe a 2-3°C increase in SST in the Pacific and a 2°C increase in the Atlantic. The observed decrease in planktic B/Ca at both sites is consistent with increased atmospheric pCO2, and when scaled to the 0.3 pH unit decrease estimated for the PETM by Penman et al., 2014, the estimated pH decrease during the ETM2 is 0.15. However, reconstructions of the δ13C recovery during the ETM2 show that it is more rapid than models have been able to successfully simulate. We compare these new proxy data to LOSCAR model output, to assess whether the rapid δ13C recovery was a result of: 1) changes in the type and δ13C of weathered carbonates or δ13C of buried organic carbon during the recovery, 2) a one-time event of isotopically `light' carbon burial during the recovery phase, or 3) enhanced burial of `light' carbon due to background orbital eccentricity forcing during the recovery. Our preliminary results suggest that the phasing of the drop in the B/Ca relative to δ13C during recovery is due to the burial of organic carbon.

Long-term soil warming and Carbon Cycle Feedbacks to the Climate System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melillo, Jerry M.

2014-04-30

The primary objective of the proposed research was to quantify and explain the effects of a sustained in situ 5oC soil temperature increase on net carbon (C) storage in a northeastern deciduous forest ecosystem. The research was done at an established soil warming experiment at the Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts – Barre Woods site established in 2001. In the field, a series of plant and soil measurements were made to quantify changes in C storage in the ecosystem and to provide insights into the possible relationships between C-storage changes and nitrogen (N) cycling changes in the warmed plots. Fieldmore » measurements included: 1) annual woody increment; 2) litterfall; 3) carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux from the soil surface; 4) root biomass and respiration; 5) microbial biomass; and 6) net N mineralization and net nitrification rates. This research was designed to increase our understanding of how global warming will affect the capacity of temperate forest ecosystems to store C. The work explored how soil warming changes the interactions between the C and N cycles, and how these changes affect land-atmosphere feedbacks. This core research question framed the project – What are the effects of a sustained in situ 5oC soil temperature increase on net carbon (C) storage in a northeastern deciduous forest ecosystem? A second critical question was addressed in this research – What are the effects of a sustained in situ 5{degrees}C soil temperature increase on nitrogen (N) cycling in a northeastern deciduous forest ecosystem?« less

Parameterization of Nitrogen Limitation for a Dynamic Ecohydrological Model: a Case Study from the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastola, S.; Bras, R. L.

2017-12-01

Feedbacks between vegetation and the soil nutrient cycle are important in ecosystems where nitrogen limits plant growth, and consequently influences the carbon balance in the plant-soil system. However, many biosphere models do not include such feedbacks, because interactions between carbon and the nitrogen cycle can be complex, and remain poorly understood. In this study we coupled a nitrogen cycle model with an eco-hydrological model by using the concept of carbon cost economics. This concept accounts for different "costs" to the plant of acquiring nitrogen via different pathways. This study builds on tRIBS-VEGGIE, a spatially explicit hydrological model coupled with a model of photosynthesis, stomatal resistance, and energy balance, by combining it with a model of nitrogen recycling. Driven by climate and spatially explicit data of soils, vegetation and topography, the model (referred to as tRIBS-VEGGIE-CN) simulates the dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in the soil-plant system; the dynamics of vegetation; and different components of the hydrological cycle. The tRIBS-VEGGIE-CN is applied in a humid tropical watershed at the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory (LCZO). The region is characterized by high availability and cycling of nitrogen, high soil respiration rates, and large carbon stocks.We drive the model under contemporary CO2 and hydro-climatic forcing and compare results to a simulation under doubling CO2 and a range of future climate scenarios. The results with parameterization of nitrogen limitation based on carbon cost economics show that the carbon cost of the acquisition of nitrogen is 14% of the net primary productivity (NPP) and the N uptake cost for different pathways vary over a large range depending on leaf nitrogen content, turnover rates of carbon in soil and nitrogen cycling processes. Moreover, the N fertilization simulation experiment shows that the application of N fertilizer does not significantly change the simulated NPP. Furthermore, an experiment with doubling of the CO2 concentration level shows a significant increase of the NPP and turnover of plant tissues. The simulation with future climate scenarios shows consistent decrease in NPP but the uncertainties in projected NPP arising from selection of climate model and scenario is large.

Enhancement of non-CO2 radiative forcing via intensified carbon cycle feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDougall, Andrew H.; Knutti, Reto

2016-06-01

The global carbon cycle is sensitive to changes in global temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration, with increased temperature tending to reduce the efficiency of carbon sinks and increased CO2 enhancing the efficiency of carbon sinks. The emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gases warms the Earth but does not induce the CO2 fertilization effect or increase the partial-pressure gradient between the atmosphere and the surface ocean. Here we present idealized climate model experiments that explore the indirect interaction between non-CO2 forcing and the carbon cycle. The experiments suggest that this interaction enhances the warming effect of the non-CO2 forcing by up to 25% after 150 years and that much of the warming caused by these agents lingers for over 100 years after the dissipation of the non-CO2 forcing. Overall, our results suggest that the longer emissions of non-CO2 forcing agents persists the greater effect these agents will have on global climate.

Altered carbon cycling and coupled changes in Early Cretaceous weathering patterns: Evidence from integrated carbon isotope and sandstone records of the western Tethys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wortmann, Ulrich Georg; Herrle, Jens Olaf; Weissert, Helmut

2004-03-01

In this study we investigate if a major perturbation of the Early Cretaceous carbon cycle was accompanied by altered weathering and erosion rates. The large Aptian carbon isotope anomaly records the response of the biosphere to widespread volcanic activity and probably resulting changes in atmospheric pCO2 levels. Elevated pCO2 levels should also result in an accelerated hydrological cycle and increased silicate weathering, creating a negative feedback loop removing CO2 from the atmosphere. We propose to interpret the widespread occurrence of quartz sandstones in the Tethys-Atlantic seaway as a result of altered weathering and erosion rates in the wake of the Aptian carbon cycle excursion. We challenge the traditional notion that these are 'flysch' deposits associated with Early Cretaceous orogenic movements in the western Tethys. We propose that these sandstones were most likely part of a large conveyor belt system, acting along the Iberian and European margin of the Tethys seaway. Using chemostratigraphic correlations, we show that the activity of this system was only short-lived and coeval with changes in coastal ecology and the Aptian carbon cycle perturbations. We tentatively relate the existence of this system to a transient climate regime, characterized by fluctuating pCO2 levels.

Effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, solar UV radiation, and climate change on biogeochemical cycling: interactions and feedbacks

DOE PAGES

Erickson III, David J.; Sulzberger, Barbara; Zepp, Richard G.; ...

2014-11-07

Climate change modulates the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, particularly for carbon cycling, resulting in UV-mediated positive or negative feedbacks on climate. Possible positive feedbacks discussed in this assessment include: (i) enhanced UV-induced mineralisation of above ground litter due to aridification; (ii) enhanced UV-induced mineralisation of photoreactive dissolved organic matter (DOM) in aquatic ecosystems due to changes in continental runoff and ice melting; (iii) reduced efficiency of the biological pump due to UV-induced bleaching of coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in stratified aquatic ecosystems, where CDOM protects phytoplankton from the damaging solarmore » UV-B radiation. Mineralisation of organic matter results in the production and release of CO 2, whereas the biological pump is the main biological process for CO 2 removal by aquatic ecosystems. This research also assesses the interactive effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on the biogeochemical cycling of aerosols and trace gases other than CO 2, as well as of chemical and biological contaminants. Lastly,, interacting effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycles are particularly pronounced at terrestrial-aquatic interfaces.« less

Temperature acclimation of photosynthesis and respiration: A key uncertainty in the carbon cycle-climate feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardozzi, Danica L.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Smith, Nicholas G.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Fisher, Rosie A.

2015-10-01

Earth System Models typically use static responses to temperature to calculate photosynthesis and respiration, but experimental evidence suggests that many plants acclimate to prevailing temperatures. We incorporated representations of photosynthetic and leaf respiratory temperature acclimation into the Community Land Model, the terrestrial component of the Community Earth System Model. These processes increased terrestrial carbon pools by 20 Pg C (22%) at the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) climate scenario. Including the less certain estimates of stem and root respiration acclimation increased terrestrial carbon pools by an additional 17 Pg C (~40% overall increase). High latitudes gained the most carbon with acclimation, and tropical carbon pools increased least. However, results from both of these regions remain uncertain; few relevant data exist for tropical and boreal plants or for extreme temperatures. Constraining these uncertainties will produce more realistic estimates of land carbon feedbacks throughout the 21st century.

Evaluation of additional biogeochemical impacts on mitigation pathways in an energy sytem integrated assessment model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessens, O.

2017-12-01

Within the last IPCC AR5 a large and systematic sensitivity study around available technologies and timing of policies applied in IAMs to achieve the 2°C target has been conducted. However the simple climate representations included in IAMs are generally tuned to the results of ensemble means. This may result in hiding within the ensemble mean results possible challenging mitigation pathways for the economy or the technology future scenarios. This work provides new insights on the sensitivity of the socio-economic response to different climate factors under a 2°C climate change target in order to help guide future efforts to reduce uncertainty in the climate mitigation decisions. The main objective is to understand and bring new insights on how future global warming will affect the natural biochemical feedbacks on the climate system and what could be the consequences of these feedbacks on the anthropogenic emission pathways with a specific focus on the energy-economy system. It specifically focuses on three issues of the climate representation affecting the energy system transformation and GHG emissions pathways: 1- Impacts of the climate sensitivity (or TCR); 2- Impacts of warming on the radiative forcing (cloudiness,...); 3- Impacts of warming on the carbon cycle (carbon cycle feedback). We use the integrated assessment model TIAM-UCL to examine the mitigation pathways compatible with the 2C target depending on assumptions regarding the 3 issues of the climate representation introduced above. The following key conclusions drawn from this study are that mitigation to 2°C is still possible under strong climate sensitivity (TCR), strong carbon cycle amplification or positive radiative forcing feedback. However, this level of climate mitigation will require a significant transformation in the way we produce and consume energy. Carbon capture and sequestration on electricity generation, industry and biomass is part of the technology pool needed to achieve this level of decarbonisation. In extreme condition (positive correlation between the 3 issues discussed) the integrated assessment model TIAM-UCL creates pathways requiring additional negative emission technologies at the end of this century to keep temperature change well below 2°C.

The topology of non-linear global carbon dynamics: from tipping points to planetary boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderies, J. M.; Carpenter, S. R.; Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan

2013-12-01

We present a minimal model of land use and carbon cycle dynamics and use it to explore the relationship between non-linear dynamics and planetary boundaries. Only the most basic interactions between land cover and terrestrial, atmospheric, and marine carbon stocks are considered in the model. Our goal is not to predict global carbon dynamics as it occurs in the actual Earth System. Rather, we construct a conceptually reasonable heuristic model of a feedback system between different carbon stocks that captures the qualitative features of the actual Earth System and use it to explore the topology of the boundaries of what can be called a ‘safe operating space’ for humans. The model analysis illustrates the existence of dynamic, non-linear tipping points in carbon cycle dynamics and the potential complexity of planetary boundaries. Finally, we use the model to illustrate some challenges associated with navigating planetary boundaries.

Microbial mediation of biogeochemical cycles revealed by simulation of global changes with soil transplant and cropping

PubMed Central

Zhao, Mengxin; Xue, Kai; Wang, Feng; Liu, Shanshan; Bai, Shijie; Sun, Bo; Zhou, Jizhong; Yang, Yunfeng

2014-01-01

Despite microbes' key roles in driving biogeochemical cycles, the mechanism of microbe-mediated feedbacks to global changes remains elusive. Recently, soil transplant has been successfully established as a proxy to simulate climate changes, as the current trend of global warming coherently causes range shifts toward higher latitudes. Four years after southward soil transplant over large transects in China, we found that microbial functional diversity was increased, in addition to concurrent changes in microbial biomass, soil nutrient content and functional processes involved in the nitrogen cycle. However, soil transplant effects could be overridden by maize cropping, which was attributed to a negative interaction. Strikingly, abundances of nitrogen and carbon cycle genes were increased by these field experiments simulating global change, coinciding with higher soil nitrification potential and carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux. Further investigation revealed strong correlations between carbon cycle genes and CO2 efflux in bare soil but not cropped soil, and between nitrogen cycle genes and nitrification. These findings suggest that changes of soil carbon and nitrogen cycles by soil transplant and cropping were predictable by measuring microbial functional potentials, contributing to a better mechanistic understanding of these soil functional processes and suggesting a potential to incorporate microbial communities in greenhouse gas emission modeling. PMID:24694714

Climatological temperature senstivity of soil carbon turnover: Observations, simple scaling models, and ESMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, C. D.; Hugelius, G.; Lawrence, D. M.; Wieder, W. R.

2016-12-01

The projected loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere resulting from climate change is a potentially large but highly uncertain feedback to warming. The magnitude of this feedback is poorly constrained by observations and theory, and is disparately represented in Earth system models. To assess the likely long-term response of soils to climate change, spatial gradients in soil carbon turnover times can identify broad-scale and long-term controls on the rate of carbon cycling as a function of climate and other factors. Here we show that the climatological temperature control on carbon turnover in the top meter of global soils is more sensitive in cold climates than in warm ones. We present a simplified model that explains the high cold-climate sensitivity using only the physical scaling of soil freeze-thaw state across climate gradients. Critically, current Earth system models (ESMs) fail to capture this pattern, however it emerges from an ESM that explicitly resolves vertical gradients in soil climate and turnover. The weak tropical temperature sensitivity emerges from a different model that explicitly resolves mineralogical control on decomposition. These results support projections of strong future carbon-climate feedbacks from northern soils and demonstrate a method for ESMs to capture this emergent behavior.

Nutrient cycle benchmarks for earth system land model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Q.; Riley, W. J.; Tang, J.; Zhao, L.

2017-12-01

Projecting future biosphere-climate feedbacks using Earth system models (ESMs) relies heavily on robust modeling of land surface carbon dynamics. More importantly, soil nutrient (particularly, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P)) dynamics strongly modulate carbon dynamics, such as plant sequestration of atmospheric CO2. Prevailing ESM land models all consider nitrogen as a potentially limiting nutrient, and several consider phosphorus. However, including nutrient cycle processes in ESM land models potentially introduces large uncertainties that could be identified and addressed by improved observational constraints. We describe the development of two nutrient cycle benchmarks for ESM land models: (1) nutrient partitioning between plants and soil microbes inferred from 15N and 33P tracers studies and (2) nutrient limitation effects on carbon cycle informed by long-term fertilization experiments. We used these benchmarks to evaluate critical hypotheses regarding nutrient cycling and their representation in ESMs. We found that a mechanistic representation of plant-microbe nutrient competition based on relevant functional traits best reproduced observed plant-microbe nutrient partitioning. We also found that for multiple-nutrient models (i.e., N and P), application of Liebig's law of the minimum is often inaccurate. Rather, the Multiple Nutrient Limitation (MNL) concept better reproduces observed carbon-nutrient interactions.

Influence of dimethyl sulfide on the carbon cycle and biological production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Shanlin; Maltrud, Mathew; Elliott, Scott

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a significant source of marine sulfate aerosol and plays an important role in modifying cloud properties. Fully coupled climate simulations using dynamic marine ecosystem and DMS calculations are conducted to estimate DMS fluxes under various climate scenarios and to examine the sign and strength of phytoplankton-DMS-climate feedbacks for the first time. Simulation results show small differences in the DMS production and emissions between pre-industrial and present climate scenarios, except for some areas in the Southern Ocean. There are clear changes in surface ocean DMS concentrations moving into the future, and they are attributable to changes inmore » phytoplankton production and competition driven by complex spatially varying mechanisms. Comparisons between parallel simulations with and without DMS fluxes into the atmosphere show significant differences in marine ecosystems and physical fields. Without DMS, the missing subsequent aerosol indirect effects on clouds and radiative forcing lead to fewer clouds, more solar radiation, and a much warmer climate. Phaeocystis, a uniquely efficient organosulfur producer with a growth advantage under cooler climate states, can benefit from producing the compound through cooling effects of DMS in the climate system. Our results show a tight coupling between the sulfur and carbon cycles. The ocean carbon uptake declines without DMS emissions to the atmosphere. The analysis indicates a weak positive phytoplankton-DMS-climate feedback at the global scale, with large spatial variations driven by individual autotrophic functional groups and complex mechanisms. The sign and strength of the feedback vary with climate states and phytoplankton groups. This highlights the importance of a dynamic marine ecosystem module and the sulfur cycle mechanism in climate projections.« less

Assessing global climate-terrestrial vegetation feedbacks on carbon and nitrogen cycling in the earth system model EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wårlind, David; Miller, Paul; Nieradzik, Lars; Söderberg, Fredrik; Anthoni, Peter; Arneth, Almut; Smith, Ben

2017-04-01

There has been great progress in developing an improved European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-Earth) in preparation for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the next Assessment Report of the IPCC. The new model version has been complemented with ocean biogeochemistry, atmospheric composition (aerosols and chemistry) and dynamic land vegetation components, and has been configured to use the recommended CMIP6 forcing data sets. These new components will give us fresh insights into climate change. This study focuses on the terrestrial biosphere component Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) that simulates vegetation dynamics and compound exchange between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere in EC-Earth. LPJ-GUESS allows for vegetation to dynamically evolve, depending on climate input, and in return provides the climate system and land surface scheme with vegetation-dependent fields such as vegetation types and leaf area index. We present the results of a study to examine the feedbacks between the dynamic terrestrial vegetation and the climate and their impact on the terrestrial ecosystem carbon and nitrogen cycles. Our results are based on a set of global, atmosphere-only historical simulations (1870 to 2014) with and without feedback between climate and vegetation and including or ignoring the effect of nitrogen limitation on plant productivity. These simulations show to what extent the addition degree of freedom in EC-Earth, introduced with the coupling of interactive dynamic vegetation to the atmosphere, has on terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycling, and represent contributions to CMIP6 (C4MIP and LUMIP) and the EU Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO.

Influence of dimethyl sulfide on the carbon cycle and biological production

DOE PAGES

Wang, Shanlin; Maltrud, Mathew; Elliott, Scott; ...

2018-02-27

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a significant source of marine sulfate aerosol and plays an important role in modifying cloud properties. Fully coupled climate simulations using dynamic marine ecosystem and DMS calculations are conducted to estimate DMS fluxes under various climate scenarios and to examine the sign and strength of phytoplankton-DMS-climate feedbacks for the first time. Simulation results show small differences in the DMS production and emissions between pre-industrial and present climate scenarios, except for some areas in the Southern Ocean. There are clear changes in surface ocean DMS concentrations moving into the future, and they are attributable to changes inmore » phytoplankton production and competition driven by complex spatially varying mechanisms. Comparisons between parallel simulations with and without DMS fluxes into the atmosphere show significant differences in marine ecosystems and physical fields. Without DMS, the missing subsequent aerosol indirect effects on clouds and radiative forcing lead to fewer clouds, more solar radiation, and a much warmer climate. Phaeocystis, a uniquely efficient organosulfur producer with a growth advantage under cooler climate states, can benefit from producing the compound through cooling effects of DMS in the climate system. Our results show a tight coupling between the sulfur and carbon cycles. The ocean carbon uptake declines without DMS emissions to the atmosphere. The analysis indicates a weak positive phytoplankton-DMS-climate feedback at the global scale, with large spatial variations driven by individual autotrophic functional groups and complex mechanisms. The sign and strength of the feedback vary with climate states and phytoplankton groups. This highlights the importance of a dynamic marine ecosystem module and the sulfur cycle mechanism in climate projections.« less

Constraining climate sensitivity and continental versus seafloor weathering using an inverse geological carbon cycle model.

PubMed

Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Catling, David C

2017-05-22

The relative influences of tectonics, continental weathering and seafloor weathering in controlling the geological carbon cycle are unknown. Here we develop a new carbon cycle model that explicitly captures the kinetics of seafloor weathering to investigate carbon fluxes and the evolution of atmospheric CO 2 and ocean pH since 100 Myr ago. We compare model outputs to proxy data, and rigorously constrain model parameters using Bayesian inverse methods. Assuming our forward model is an accurate representation of the carbon cycle, to fit proxies the temperature dependence of continental weathering must be weaker than commonly assumed. We find that 15-31 °C (1σ) surface warming is required to double the continental weathering flux, versus 3-10 °C in previous work. In addition, continental weatherability has increased 1.7-3.3 times since 100 Myr ago, demanding explanation by uplift and sea-level changes. The average Earth system climate sensitivity is  K (1σ) per CO 2 doubling, which is notably higher than fast-feedback estimates. These conclusions are robust to assumptions about outgassing, modern fluxes and seafloor weathering kinetics.

Constraining climate sensitivity and continental versus seafloor weathering using an inverse geological carbon cycle model

PubMed Central

Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Catling, David C.

2017-01-01

The relative influences of tectonics, continental weathering and seafloor weathering in controlling the geological carbon cycle are unknown. Here we develop a new carbon cycle model that explicitly captures the kinetics of seafloor weathering to investigate carbon fluxes and the evolution of atmospheric CO2 and ocean pH since 100 Myr ago. We compare model outputs to proxy data, and rigorously constrain model parameters using Bayesian inverse methods. Assuming our forward model is an accurate representation of the carbon cycle, to fit proxies the temperature dependence of continental weathering must be weaker than commonly assumed. We find that 15–31 °C (1σ) surface warming is required to double the continental weathering flux, versus 3–10 °C in previous work. In addition, continental weatherability has increased 1.7–3.3 times since 100 Myr ago, demanding explanation by uplift and sea-level changes. The average Earth system climate sensitivity is  K (1σ) per CO2 doubling, which is notably higher than fast-feedback estimates. These conclusions are robust to assumptions about outgassing, modern fluxes and seafloor weathering kinetics. PMID:28530231

Process-based modeling of silicate mineral weathering responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banwart, Steven A.; Berg, Astrid; Beerling, David J.

2009-12-01

A mathematical model describes silicate mineral weathering processes in modern soils located in the boreal coniferous region of northern Europe. The process model results demonstrate a stabilizing biological feedback mechanism between atmospheric CO2 levels and silicate weathering rates as is generally postulated for atmospheric evolution. The process model feedback response agrees within a factor of 2 of that calculated by a weathering feedback function of the type generally employed in global geochemical carbon cycle models of the Earth's Phanerozoic CO2 history. Sensitivity analysis of parameter values in the process model provides insight into the key mechanisms that influence the strength of the biological feedback to weathering. First, the process model accounts for the alkalinity released by weathering, whereby its acceleration stabilizes pH at values that are higher than expected. Although the process model yields faster weathering with increasing temperature, because of activation energy effects on mineral dissolution kinetics at warmer temperature, the mineral dissolution rate laws utilized in the process model also result in lower dissolution rates at higher pH values. Hence, as dissolution rates increase under warmer conditions, more alkalinity is released by the weathering reaction, helping maintain higher pH values thus stabilizing the weathering rate. Second, the process model yields a relatively low sensitivity of soil pH to increasing plant productivity. This is due to more rapid decomposition of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) under warmer conditions. Because DOC fluxes strongly influence the soil water proton balance and pH, this increased decomposition rate dampens the feedback between productivity and weathering. The process model is most sensitive to parameters reflecting soil structure; depth, porosity, and water content. This suggests that the role of biota to influence these characteristics of the weathering profile is as important, if not more important, than the role of biota to influence mineral dissolution rates through changes in soil water chemistry. This process-modeling approach to quantify the biological weathering feedback to atmospheric CO2 demonstrates the potential for a far more mechanistic description of weathering feedback in simulations of the global geochemical carbon cycle.

Seeing the risks of multiple Arctic amplifying feedbacks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, P.

2014-12-01

There are several potentially very large sources of Arctic amplifying feedbacks that have been identified. They present a great risk to the future as they could become self and inter-reinforcing with uncontrollable knock-on, or cascading risks. This has been called a domino effect risk by Carlos Duarte. Because of already committed global warming and the millennial duration of global warming, these are highly policy relevant. These Arctic feedback processes are now all operant with emissions of carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide detected. The extent of the risks from these feedback sources are not obvious or easy to understand by policy makers and the public. They are recorded in the IPCC AR5 as potential tipping points, as is the irreversibility of permafrost thaw. Some of them are not accounted for in the IPCC AR5 global warming projections because of quantitative uncertainty. UNEP issued a 2012 report (Policy Implications of Thawing Permafrost) advising that by omitting carbon feedback emissions from permafrost, carbon budget calculations by err on the low side. There is the other unassessed issue of a global warming safety limit for preventing uncontrollable increasing Arctic feedback emissions. Along with our paper, we provide illustrations of the Arctic feedback sources and processes from satellite imagery and flow charts that allows for their qualitative consideration. We rely on the IPCC assessments, the 2012 paper Possible role of wetlands permafrost can methane hydrates in the methane cycle under future climate change; a review, by Fiona M. O'Connor et al., and build on the WWF 2009 Arctic Climate Feedbacks: Global Implications. The potential sources of Arctic feedback processes identified include: Arctic and Far North snow albedo decline, Arctic summer sea ice albedo decline, Greenland summer ice surface melting albedo loss, albedo decline by replacement of Arctic tundra with forest, tundra fires, Boreal forest fires, Boreal forest die-back, warming subarctic peat rich wetlands (methane), thawing permafrost (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide), and Arctic subsea floor methane.

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

Treesearch

Xiaohui Feng; María Uriarte; Grizelle González; Sasha Reed; Jill Thompson; Jess K. Zimmerman; Lora Murphy

2018-01-01

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very...

Changes in the carbon cycle of northern Eurasia simulated by process models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawlins, M. A.

2013-12-01

Pronounced warming across the northern high latitudes is impacting water and carbon cycles and raising concern over possible feedbacks to global climate. Recent model studied point toward a weakening of the terrestrial land carbon sink across the northern high latitudes, one notable manifestation of a warming Arctic. We explore links between regional climate and the carbon cycle using data from models participating in the Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon Research Coordination Network (RCN). The domain of interest is the drainage basin within the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) region. Model outputs examined include gross primary production (GPP), heterotrophic respiration (RH), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and total soil carbon storage. Mean flux budgets and their changes over the period 1960-2009 are calculated from the model estimates for the entire NEESPI region and for each major land cover category within the region. Use of an independent model, which captures well the spatial pattern in soil freeze/thaw dynamics, indicates that the reduction in permafrost extent over the NEESPI basin was 4-6% over recent decades. Modeled influences of permafrost thaw on the region's water and carbon cycles are evaluated in the context of recent measurements. Estimates of the flux of CO2 due to fire are also examined in order to better understand how these disturbances are altering regional carbon sink/source dynamics.

An Analytical Framework for the Steady State Impact of Carbonate Compensation on Atmospheric CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omta, Anne Willem; Ferrari, Raffaele; McGee, David

2018-04-01

The deep-ocean carbonate ion concentration impacts the fraction of the marine calcium carbonate production that is buried in sediments. This gives rise to the carbonate compensation feedback, which is thought to restore the deep-ocean carbonate ion concentration on multimillennial timescales. We formulate an analytical framework to investigate the impact of carbonate compensation under various changes in the carbon cycle relevant for anthropogenic change and glacial cycles. Using this framework, we show that carbonate compensation amplifies by 15-20% changes in atmospheric CO2 resulting from a redistribution of carbon between the atmosphere and ocean (e.g., due to changes in temperature, salinity, or nutrient utilization). A counterintuitive result emerges when the impact of organic matter burial in the ocean is examined. The organic matter burial first leads to a slight decrease in atmospheric CO2 and an increase in the deep-ocean carbonate ion concentration. Subsequently, enhanced calcium carbonate burial leads to outgassing of carbon from the ocean to the atmosphere, which is quantified by our framework. Results from simulations with a multibox model including the minor acids and bases important for the ocean-atmosphere exchange of carbon are consistent with our analytical predictions. We discuss the potential role of carbonate compensation in glacial-interglacial cycles as an example of how our theoretical framework may be applied.

Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Jianyang; Chen, Jiquan; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Luo, Yiqi; Wan, Shiqiang

2014-03-01

Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change could affect many ecosystem functions and services, such as food production, carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The rate of climate warming varies on diurnal and seasonal timescales. A synthesis of global air temperature data reveals a greater rate of warming in winter than in summer in northern mid and high latitudes, and the inverse pattern in some tropical regions. The data also reveal a decline in the diurnal temperature range over 51% of the global land area and an increase over only 13%, because night-time temperatures in most locations have risen faster than daytime temperatures. Analyses of satellite data, model simulations and in situ observations suggest that the impact of seasonal warming varies between regions. For example, spring warming has largely stimulated ecosystem productivity at latitudes between 30° and 90° N, but suppressed productivity in other regions. Contrasting impacts of day- and night-time warming on plant carbon gain and loss are apparent in many regions. We argue that ascertaining the effects of non-uniform climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is a key challenge in carbon cycle research.

Impact of a regional drought on terrestrial carbon fluxes and atmospheric carbon: results from a coupled carbon cycle model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, E.; Koster, R. D.; Ott, L. E.; Weir, B.; Mahanama, S. P. P.; Chang, Y.; Zeng, F.

2017-12-01

Understanding the underlying processes that control the carbon cycle is key to predicting future global change. Much of the uncertainty in the magnitude and variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) stems from uncertainty in terrestrial carbon fluxes. Budget-based analyses show that such fluxes exhibit substantial interannual variability, but the relative impacts of temperature and moisture variations on regional and global scales are poorly understood. Here we investigate the impact of a regional drought on terrestrial carbon fluxes and CO2 mixing ratios over North America using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Model. Two 48-member ensembles of NASA GEOS-5 simulations with fully coupled land and atmosphere carbon components are performed - a control ensemble and an ensemble with an artificially imposed dry land surface anomaly for three months (April-June) over the lower Mississippi River Valley. Comparison of the results using the ensemble approach allows a direct quantification of the impact of the regional drought on local and proximate carbon exchange at the land surface via the carbon-water feedback processes.

Spatially explicit simulation of hydrologically controlled carbon and nitrogen cycles and associated feedback mechanisms in a boreal ecosystem in Eastern Canada.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govind, A.; Chen, J. M.; Margolis, H.

2007-12-01

Current estimates of terrestrial carbon overlook the effects of topographically-driven lateral flow of soil water. We hypothesize that this component, which occur at a landscape or watershed scale have significant influences on the spatial distribution of carbon, due to its large contribution to the local water balance. To this end, we further developed a spatially explicit ecohydrological model, BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0. We simulated the coupled hydrological and carbon cycle processes in a black spruce-moss ecosystem in central Quebec, Canada. The carbon stocks were initialized using a long term carbon cycling model, InTEC, under a climate change and disturbance scenario, the accuracy of which was determined with inventory plot measurements. Further, we simulated and validated several ecosystem indicators such as ET, GPP, NEP, water table, snow depth and soil temperature, using the measurements for two years, 2004 and 2005. After gaining confidence in the model's ability to simulate ecohydrological processes, we tested the influence of lateral water flow on the carbon cycle. We made three hydrological modeling scenarios 1) Explicit, were realistic lateral water routing was considered 2) Implicit where calculations were based on a bucket modeling approach 3) NoFlow, where the lateral water flow was turned off in the model. The results showed that pronounced anomalies exist among the scenarios for the simulated GPP, ET and NEP. In general, Implicit calculation overestimated GPP and underestimated NEP, as opposed to Explicit simulation. NoFlow underestimated GPP and overestimated NEP. The key processes controlling GPP were manifested through stomatal conductance which reduces under conditions of rapid soil saturation ( NoFlow ) or increases in the Implicit case, and, nitrogen availability which affects Vcmax, the maximum carboxylation rate. However, for NEP, the anomalies were attributed to differences in soil carbon pool decomposition, which determine the heterotrophic respiration and the resultant nitrogen mineralization which affects GPP and several other feedback mechanisms. These results suggest that lateral water flow does play a significant role in the terrestrial carbon distribution. Therefore, regional or global scale terrestrial carbon estimates could have significant errors if proper hydrological constrains are not considered for modeling ecological processes due to large topographic variations on the Earth's surface. For more info please visit: http://ajit.govind.googlepages.com/agu2007

Responses of the terrestrial carbon cycle to drought: modeling sensitivities of the interactive nitrogen and dynamic vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, B.; Wang, Y.; Xie, Z.

2016-12-01

Drought can trigger both immediate and time-lagged responses of terrestrial ecosystems and even cause sizeable positive feedbacks to climate warming. In this study, the influences of interactive nitrogen (N) and dynamic vegetation (DV) on the response of the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems of China to drought were investigated using the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5). Model simulations from three configurations of CLM4.5 (C, carbon cycle only; CN, dynamic carbon and nitrogen cycle; CNDV, dynamic carbon and nitrogen cycle as well as dynamic vegetation) between 1961 and 2010 showed that the incorporation of a prognostic N cycle and DV into CLM4.5 reduce the predicted annual means and inter-annual variability of predicted gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP), except for a slight increase in NEP for CNDV compared to CN. These model improvements resulted in better agreement with observations (7.0 PgC yr-1) of annual GPP over the terrestrial ecosystems in China for CLM45-CN (7.5 PgC yr-1) and CLM45-CNDV (7.3 PgC yr-1) than for CLM45-C (10.9 PgC yr-1). Compared to the CLM45-C, the carbon-nitrogen coupling strengthened the predicted response of GPP to drought, resulting in a higher correlation with the standardized precipitation index (SPI; rC = 0.62, rCN = 0.67), but led to a weaker sensitivity of NEP to SPI (rC = 0.51, rCN = 0.45). The CLM45-CNDV had the longest lagged responses of GPP to drought among the three configurations. These results enhance our understanding of the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to drought.

Near-Simultaneous Measurement of Ground Level Carbon Dioxide and Methane Concentrations with an Open-Path Tunable Diode Laser Sensor at the Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research site near Fairbanks, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bailey, D. M.; Miller, J. H. H.

2017-12-01

Beyond anthropogenic carbon emissions, the increase in atmospheric carbon from natural feedbacks such as thawing permafrost poses a risk to the global climate as global temperatures continue to increase. Permafrost is formally defined as soil that is continuously frozen for 24 consecutive months. These soils comprise nearly twenty-five percent of the Earth's terrestrial surface and possess twice the amount of carbon currently in the atmosphere. Continuous collection of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) concentrations is imperative in understanding seasonal and inter-annual variability of carbon feedbacks above thawing permafrost. A multi-year collaborative effort with the University of Alaska - Fairbanks, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, and our group at George Washington University is underway to monitor these feedbacks near Fairbanks, Alaska. In June 2017, we deployed two open-path tunable diode laser sensors at the Bonanza Long Term Ecological Research Site for measurement of CO2 and CH4 concentrations. The open-path instrument (OPI) is an inexpensive, low-power sensor that collects spatially-integrated measurements of target molecules approximately 1.5 meters above ground level. With a total power burden of 18 W, the sensors ran exclusively on solar power for 15 days in a young thermokarst bog and 3.5 days at a rich fen site. Here we report on initial retrieval of diurnal cycles from each field site and compare our spatially-integrated measurements of CO2 and CH4. For CO2, the magnitude of the diurnal cycles show a strong dependence on daily weather at both field sites. These laser measurements are complemented by point measurements of CO2, temperature, pressure, and humidity made along the laser's optical path by non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) sensors.

Global Analysis, Interpretation, and Modelling: First Science Conference

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sahagian, Dork

1995-01-01

Topics considered include: Biomass of termites and their emissions of methane and carbon dioxide - A global database; Carbon isotope discrimination during photosynthesis and the isotope ratio of respired CO2 in boreal forest ecosystems; Estimation of methane emission from rice paddies in mainland China; Climate and nitrogen controls on the geography and timescales of terrestrial biogeochemical cycling; Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions - A case study at 6000 years B.P.; Interannual variation of carbon exchange fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems; and Variations in modeled atmospheric transport of carbon dioxide and the consequences for CO2 inversions.

Atmosphere-Forest Exchange: Important Questions Regarding the Atmosphere's Role in the Delivery of Nutrient Nitrogen and Impacts on Nitrogen and Carbon Cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carroll, M.; Shepson, P. B.; Bertman, S. B.; Sparks, J. P.; Holland, E. A.

2002-12-01

Atmosphere-Forest Exchange: Important Questions Regarding the Atmosphere's Role in the Delivery of Nutrient Nitrogen and Impacts on Nitrogen and Carbon Cycling Atmospheric composition and chemistry directly affect ecosystem nitrogen cycling and indirectly affect ecosystem carbon cycling and storage. Current understanding of atmosphere-forest nitrogen exchange and subsequent impacts is based almost exclusively on nitrogen deposition data obtained from networks using buckets placed in open areas, studies involving inorganic nitrogen, frequently with enhanced N deposition inputs applied only to soils, and that ignore multiple stresses (e.g., the combined effects of aerosols, ozone exposure, elevated CO2, and drought). Current models of nitrogen cycling treat deposited nitrogen (e.g., HNO3 and NO3-) as a permanent sink whereas data appear to indicate that photolytic and heterogeneous chemical processes occurring on surfaces and in dew can result in the re-evolution of gaseous species such as NO and HONO. Similarly, the direct uptake of gaseous nitrogen compounds by foliage has been neglected, compromising conclusions drawn from deposition experiments and ignoring a mechanism that may significantly affect nitrogen cycling and carbon storage, one that may become more significant with future atmospheric and climate change. We hypothesize that the atmosphere plays a significant role in the delivery of nutrient nitrogen to the N-limited mixed hardwood forest at the PROPHET research site at the University of Michigan Biological Station. We assert that a complete understanding of atmosphere- biosphere interactions and feedbacks is required to develop a predictive capability regarding forest response to increasing atmospheric CO2, reactive nitrogen, oxidants, and aerosols, increasing nitrogen and acidic deposition, and anticipated climate change. We further assert that conclusions drawn from studies that are limited to inorganic nitrogen, fertilization of soils, and/or that neglect the role of the canopy (in N uptake and/or remobilization) may not produce a complete understanding of N and C cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, including atmosphere-biosphere interactions and feedbacks. Here, as part of a new PROPHET focus on Biosphere Exchange of Atmospheric Carbon and Odd Nitrogen (BEACON), we identify a number of issues associated with nitrogen limited forest ecosystems and nitrogen saturation and important science questions that require collaborative studies involving the atmospheric and biospheric science communities.

The Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report: A Scientific Basis for Policy and Management Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birdsey, R.; Mayes, M. A.; Reed, S.; Najjar, R.; Romero-Lankao, P.

2017-12-01

The second "State of the Carbon Cycle of North America Report" (SOCCR-2) includes an overview of the North American carbon budget and future projections, the consequences of changes to the carbon budget, details of the carbon budget in major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (including coastal ocean waters), information about anthropogenic drivers, and implications for policy and carbon management. SOCCR-2 includes new focus areas such as soil carbon, arctic and boreal ecosystems, tribal lands, and greater emphasis on aquatic systems and the role of societal drivers and decision making on the carbon cycle. In addition, methane is considered to a greater extent than before. SOCCR-2 will contribute to the next U.S. National Climate Assessment, as well as providing information to support science-based management decisions and policies that include climate change mitigation and adaptation in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. Although the Report is still in the review process, preliminary findings indicate that North America is a net emitter of carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere, and that natural sinks offset about 25% of emitted carbon dioxide. Combustion of fossil fuels represents the largest source of emissions, but show a decreasing trend over the last decade and a lower share (20%) of the global total compared with the previous decade. Forests, soils, grasslands, and coastal oceans comprise the largest carbon sinks, while emissions from inland waters are a significant source of carbon dioxide. The Report also documents the lateral transfers of carbon among terrestrial ecosystems and from terrestrial to near-coastal ecosystems, to complete the carbon cycle accounting. Further, the Report explores the consequences of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide on terrestrial and oceanic systems, and the capacity of these systems to continue to act as carbon sinks based on the drivers of future carbon cycle changes, including carbon-climate feedbacks, atmospheric composition, nutrient availability, and human activity and management decisions. SOCCR-2 highlights key data gaps in carbon accounting frameworks, uncertainties in modeling and estimation approaches, and integrated frameworks for improving our understanding of the North American carbon cycle.

Climate stability of habitable Earth-like planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menou, Kristen

2015-11-01

The carbon-silicate cycle regulates the atmospheric CO2 content of terrestrial planets on geological timescales through a balance between the rates of CO2 volcanic outgassing and planetary intake from rock weathering. It is thought to act as an efficient climatic thermostat on Earth and, by extension, on other habitable planets. If, however, the weathering rate increases with the atmospheric CO2 content, as expected on planets lacking land vascular plants, the carbon-silicate cycle feedback can become severely limited. Here we show that Earth-like planets receiving less sunlight than current Earth may no longer possess a stable warm climate but instead repeatedly cycle between unstable glaciated and deglaciated climatic states. This has implications for the search for life on exoplanets in the habitable zone of nearby stars.

Global Soil Respiration: Interaction with Environmental Variables and Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jian, J.; Steele, M.

2016-12-01

Background, methods, objectivesTerrestrial ecosystems take up around 1.7 Pg C per year; however, the role of terrestrial ecosystems as a carbon sink may change to carbon source by 2050, as a result of positive feedback of soil respiration response to global warming. Nevertheless, limited evidence shows that soil carbon is decreasing and the role of terrestrial ecosystems is changing under warming. One possibility is the positive feedback may slow due to the acclimation of soil respiration as a result of decreasing temperature sensitivity (Q10) with warming. To verify and quantify the uncertainty in soil carbon cycling and feedbacks to climate change, we assembled soil respiration observations from 1961 to 2014 from 724 publications into a monthly global soil respiration database (MSRDB), which included 13482 soil respiration measurements together with 38 other ancillary measurements from 538 sites. Using this database we examined macroscale variation in the relationship between soil respiration and air temperature, precipitation, leaf area index and soil properties. We also quantified global soil respiration, the sources of uncertainty, and its feedback to warming based on climate region-oriented models with variant Q10function. Results and ConclusionsOur results showed substantial heterogeneity in the relationship between soil respiration and environmental factors across different climate regions. For example, soil respiration was strongly related to vegetation (via leaf area index) in colder regions, but not in tropical region. Only in tropical and arid regions did soil properties explain any variation in soil respiration. Global annual mean soil respiration from 1961 to 2014 was estimated to be 72.41 Pg C yr-1 based on monthly global soil respiration database, 25 Pg lower than estimated based on yearly soil respiration database. By using the variable Q10 models, we estimated that global soil respiration increased at a rate of 0.03 Pg C yr-1 from 1961 to 2014, smaller than previous studies ( 0.1 Pg C yr-1). The substantial variations in these relationships suggest that regional scales is important for understanding and prediction of global carbon cycling and how it response to climate change.

Lasting effect of soil warming on organic matter decomposition depends on tillage practices

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global warming affects various parts of carbon (C) cycle including acceleration of soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition with strong feedback to atmospheric CO2 concentration. Despite many soil warming studies showed changes of microbial community structure, very few were focused on the effect of ...

Climate Sensitivity in the Anthropocene

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Previdi, M.; Liepert, B. G.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Hansen, J.; Beerling, D. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Frolking, S.; Galloway, J. N.; Heimann, M.; LeQuere, C.;

Supporting Greenhouse Gas Management Strategies with Observations and Analysis - Challenges and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, J. H.; Tarasova, O. A.

2014-12-01

Climate-change challenges facing society in the 21st century require an improved understanding of the global carbon-cycle and of the impacts and feedbacks of past, present, and future emissions of carbon-cycle gases. Global society faces a major challenge of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to virtually zero, most notably those of CO2, while at the same time facing variable and potentially overwhelming Earth System feedbacks. How it goes about this will depend upon the nature of impending international agreements, national laws, regional strategies, and social and economic forces. The challenge to those making observations to support, inform, or verify these reduction efforts, or to address potential Earth System feedbacks, lies in harmonizing a diverse array of observations and observing systems. Doing so is not trivial. Providing coherent, regional-scale information from these observations also requires improved modelling and ensemble reanalysis, but in the end such information must be relevant and reasonably certain. The challenge to us is to ensure a globally coherent observing and analysis system to supply the information that society will need to succeed. Policy-makers, scientists, government agencies, and businesses will need the best information available for decision-making and any observing and analysis system ultimately must be able to provide a coherent story over decades.

Microbial formation of labile organic carbon in Antarctic glacial environments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, H.J.; Foster, R.; McKnight, D.M.; Lisle, John T.; Littmann, S.; Kuypers, M.M.M.; Foreman, C.M.

2017-01-01

Roughly six petagrams of organic carbon are stored within ice worldwide. This organic carbon is thought to be of old age and highly bioavailable. Along with storage of ancient and new atmospherically deposited organic carbon, microorganisms may contribute substantially to the glacial organic carbon pool. Models of glacial microbial carbon cycling vary from net respiration to net carbon fixation. Supraglacial streams have not been considered in models although they are amongst the largest ecosystems on most glaciers and are inhabited by diverse microbial communities. Here we investigate the biogeochemical sequence of organic carbon production and uptake in an Antarctic supraglacial stream in the McMurdo Dry Valleys using nanometre-scale secondary ion mass spectrometry, fluorescence spectroscopy, stable isotope analysis and incubation experiments. We find that heterotrophic production relies on highly labile organic carbon freshly derived from photosynthetic bacteria rather than legacy organic carbon. Exudates from primary production were utilized by heterotrophs within 24 h, and supported bacterial growth demands. The tight coupling of microbially released organic carbon and rapid uptake by heterotrophs suggests a dynamic local carbon cycle. Moreover, as temperatures increase there is the potential for positive feedback between glacial melt and microbial transformations of organic carbon.

Sensitivity of Global Terrestrial Gross Primary Production to Hydrologic States Simulated by the Community Land Model Using Two Runoff Parameterizations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lei, Huimin; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

2014-09-01

The terrestrial water and carbon cycles interact strongly at various spatio-temporal scales. To elucidate how hydrologic processes may influence carbon cycle processes, differences in terrestrial carbon cycle simulations induced by structural differences in two runoff generation schemes were investigated using the Community Land Model 4 (CLM4). Simulations were performed with runoff generation using the default TOPMODEL-based and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model approaches under the same experimental protocol. The comparisons showed that differences in the simulated gross primary production (GPP) are mainly attributed to differences in the simulated leaf area index (LAI) rather than soil moisture availability. More specifically,more » differences in runoff simulations can influence LAI through changes in soil moisture, soil temperature, and their seasonality that affect the onset of the growing season and the subsequent dynamic feedbacks between terrestrial water, energy, and carbon cycles. As a result of a relative difference of 36% in global mean total runoff between the two models and subsequent changes in soil moisture, soil temperature, and LAI, the simulated global mean GPP differs by 20.4%. However, the relative difference in the global mean net ecosystem exchange between the two models is small (2.1%) due to competing effects on total mean ecosystem respiration and other fluxes, although large regional differences can still be found. Our study highlights the significant interactions among the water, energy, and carbon cycles and the need for reducing uncertainty in the hydrologic parameterization of land surface models to better constrain carbon cycle modeling.« less

Carbon-nitrogen interactions in idealized simulations with JSBACH (version 3.10)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goll, Daniel S.; Winkler, Alexander J.; Raddatz, Thomas; Dong, Ning; Prentice, Ian Colin; Ciais, Philippe; Brovkin, Victor

2017-05-01

Recent advances in the representation of soil carbon decomposition and carbon-nitrogen interactions implemented previously into separate versions of the land surface scheme JSBACH are here combined in a single version, which is set to be used in the upcoming 6th phase of coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6).Here we demonstrate that the new version of JSBACH is able to reproduce the spatial variability in the reactive nitrogen-loss pathways as derived from a compilation of δ15N data (R = 0. 76, root mean square error (RMSE) = 0. 2, Taylor score = 0. 83). The inclusion of carbon-nitrogen interactions leads to a moderate reduction (-10 %) of the carbon-concentration feedback (βL) and has a negligible effect on the sensitivity of the land carbon cycle to warming (γL) compared to the same version of the model without carbon-nitrogen interactions in idealized simulations (1 % increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide per year). In line with evidence from elevated carbon dioxide manipulation experiments, pronounced nitrogen scarcity is alleviated by (1) the accumulation of nitrogen due to enhanced nitrogen inputs by biological nitrogen fixation and reduced losses by leaching and volatilization. Warming stimulated turnover of organic nitrogen further counteracts scarcity.The strengths of the land carbon feedbacks of the recent version of JSBACH, with βL = 0. 61 Pg ppm-1 and γL = -27. 5 Pg °C-1, are 34 and 53 % less than the averages of CMIP5 models, although the CMIP5 version of JSBACH simulated βL and γL, which are 59 and 42 % higher than multi-model average. These changes are primarily due to the new decomposition model, indicating the importance of soil organic matter decomposition for land carbon feedbacks.

Soil erosion, sedimentation and the carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cammeraat, L. H.; Kirkels, F.; Kuhn, N. J.

2012-04-01

Historically soil erosion focused on the effects of on-site soil quality loss and consequently reduced crop yields, and off-site effects related to deposition of material and water quality issues such as increased sediment loads of rivers. In agricultural landscapes geomorphological processes reallocate considerable amounts of soil and soil organic carbon (SOC). The destiny of SOC is of importance because it constitutes the largest C pool of the fast carbon cycle, and which cannot only be understood by looking at the vertical transfer of C from soil to atmosphere. Therefore studies have been carried out to quantify this possible influence of soil erosion and soil deposition and which was summarized by Quinton et al. (2010) by "We need to consider soils as mobile systems to make accurate predictions about the consequences of global change for terrestrial biogeochemical cycles and climate feedbacks". Currently a debate exists on the actual fate of SOC in relation to the global carbon cycle, represented in a controversy between researchers claiming that erosion is a sink, and those who claim the opposite. This controversy is still continuing as it is not easy to quantify and model the dominating sink and source processes at the landscape scale. Getting insight into the balance of the carbon budget requires a comprehensive research of all relevant processes at broad spatio-temporal scales, from catchment to regional scales and covering the present to the late Holocene. Emphasising the economic and societal benefits, the merits for scientific knowledge of the carbon cycle and the potential to sequester carbon and consequently offset increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, make the fate of SOC in agricultural landscapes a high-priority research area. Quinton, J.N., Govers, G., Van Oost, K., Bardgett, R.D., 2010. The impact of agricultural soil erosion on biogeochemical cycling. Nature Geosci, 3, 311-314.

The role of nutricline depth in regulating the ocean carbon cycle

PubMed Central

Cermeño, Pedro; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Harris, Roger P.; Follows, Mick; Schofield, Oscar; Falkowski, Paul G.

2008-01-01

Carbon uptake by marine phytoplankton, and its export as organic matter to the ocean interior (i.e., the “biological pump”), lowers the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) in the upper ocean and facilitates the diffusive drawdown of atmospheric CO2. Conversely, precipitation of calcium carbonate by marine planktonic calcifiers such as coccolithophorids increases pCO2 and promotes its outgassing (i.e., the “alkalinity pump”). Over the past ≈100 million years, these two carbon fluxes have been modulated by the relative abundance of diatoms and coccolithophores, resulting in biological feedback on atmospheric CO2 and Earth's climate; yet, the processes determining the relative distribution of these two phytoplankton taxa remain poorly understood. We analyzed phytoplankton community composition in the Atlantic Ocean and show that the distribution of diatoms and coccolithophorids is correlated with the nutricline depth, a proxy of nutrient supply to the upper mixed layer of the ocean. Using this analysis in conjunction with a coupled atmosphere–ocean intermediate complexity model, we predict a dramatic reduction in the nutrient supply to the euphotic layer in the coming century as a result of increased thermal stratification. Our findings indicate that, by altering phytoplankton community composition, this causal relationship may lead to a decreased efficiency of the biological pump in sequestering atmospheric CO2, implying a positive feedback in the climate system. These results provide a mechanistic basis for understanding the connection between upper ocean dynamics, the calcium carbonate-to-organic C production ratio and atmospheric pCO2 variations on time scales ranging from seasonal cycles to geological transitions. PMID:19075222

The role of nutricline depth in regulating the ocean carbon cycle.

PubMed

Cermeño, Pedro; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Harris, Roger P; Follows, Mick; Schofield, Oscar; Falkowski, Paul G

2008-12-23

Carbon uptake by marine phytoplankton, and its export as organic matter to the ocean interior (i.e., the "biological pump"), lowers the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO(2)) in the upper ocean and facilitates the diffusive drawdown of atmospheric CO(2). Conversely, precipitation of calcium carbonate by marine planktonic calcifiers such as coccolithophorids increases pCO(2) and promotes its outgassing (i.e., the "alkalinity pump"). Over the past approximately 100 million years, these two carbon fluxes have been modulated by the relative abundance of diatoms and coccolithophores, resulting in biological feedback on atmospheric CO(2) and Earth's climate; yet, the processes determining the relative distribution of these two phytoplankton taxa remain poorly understood. We analyzed phytoplankton community composition in the Atlantic Ocean and show that the distribution of diatoms and coccolithophorids is correlated with the nutricline depth, a proxy of nutrient supply to the upper mixed layer of the ocean. Using this analysis in conjunction with a coupled atmosphere-ocean intermediate complexity model, we predict a dramatic reduction in the nutrient supply to the euphotic layer in the coming century as a result of increased thermal stratification. Our findings indicate that, by altering phytoplankton community composition, this causal relationship may lead to a decreased efficiency of the biological pump in sequestering atmospheric CO(2), implying a positive feedback in the climate system. These results provide a mechanistic basis for understanding the connection between upper ocean dynamics, the calcium carbonate-to-organic C production ratio and atmospheric pCO(2) variations on time scales ranging from seasonal cycles to geological transitions.

Carbon Cycle Dynamics through the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum: Orbital Couplings to Lacustrine Cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosengard, S. Z.; Grogan, D. S.; Whiteside, J. H.; van Keuren, M.; Musher, D.

2010-12-01

The early Eocene represents the most recent hothouse climate state of Earth history, a period during which Earth’s surface temperatures warmed and reached a steady peak at the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), 53.5-50 Ma. Interspersed through the primary warming interval were several hyperthermals, or rapid peaks in surface temperature and pulses of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, followed by rapid declines, lasting 10^4 to 10^5 years. Various hypotheses have been offered to explain the climatic triggers during the hothouse interval, including changes in ocean circulation, methane release from hydrates, volcanism, and turnover of terrestrial organic matter, implicating various couplings and feedbacks in the global carbon cycle. The present study investigates the prevailing changes in carbon cycle dynamics that occurred during a specific subinterval of the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum. We sampled a carbon-rich 300-ft ( 1100 kyr) section of lacustrine Green River Formation sediments from the TOSCO core in the Uinta Basin at a one-foot resolution for organic carbon content and δ^{13}C. The compiled data comprise a high-resolution profile of total organic carbon and isotopic organic carbon composition through the section, showing cyclic patterns that we hypothesize reflect orbital signals. Bulk isotopic carbon and shale oil measurements from an earlier Fischer Assay across TOSCO’s entire 1030-ft core were then filtered using the expected frequency of a 23-kyr precession cycle. The overlaid cycles reveal δ^{13}C and oil content to be anti-phase through the 300-ft section, except for an interval of 50 feet (180 kyr) from the Mahogany Zone to the B-groove of the core, where the two measurements are in-phase. Given that shale oil, a proxy for lake primary productivity and carbon burial, and δ^{13}C typically correlate inversely, this short, 180-kyr interval of in-phase variation suggests a significant alteration in the local carbon cycle. These preliminary findings reveal a dynamic, inconstant coupling between precessional variations in solar insolation and the carbon cycle during the EECO. As the organic carbon profile fundamentally records ecosystem processes, this precession-carbon cycle coupling is likely modulated by ecological dynamics within the paleolake, such as changing trophic and community structure. Because precession-driven changes in solar insolation dominantly control hydrology and lake water balance, the lacustrine ecosystem response to such perturbations may have precipitated key shifts in the dynamics of carbon cycling through the most stable interval of Earth’s latest hothouse.

Statistical signal analysis of the Phanerozoic ð13C curve: implications for Earth system evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachan, A.; Kump, L. R.; Payne, J.; Saltzman, M.; Thomas, E.

2014-12-01

In recent years, vast amounts of carbon isotopic data have been collected allowing the construction of the Phanerozoic δ13C curve in unprecedented detail. Our dataset comprises 8143 points spanning the last 541 m.y., with a mean spacing of 66 k.y. The average δ13C of Phanerozoic carbonate is 1 ‰ ± 2 ‰, in accordance with the canonical values measured in the past. However, the record also shows numerous, highly resolved, large (± 6 ‰) excursions whose magnitude declines through time, especially going into the late Mesozoic and Cenozoic. When the magnitude - distribution of the excursions is tabulated we find that it follows a power law: plotting the min-max differences vs. number of bins in which a particular value occurs reveals that the data fall on a semilogarithmic line with a slope of -0.23 and R2 = 0.99. The result is insensitive to outliers: smoothing the data with lowess, spline, Savitzky-Golay, and Butterworth filters yields similar results. The continuity from small variation to large perturbations, both positive and negative, suggests that, despite the numerous proposed causes for individual carbon isotopic evens, there is likely an underlying mechanism which governs the magnitude of δ13C response to perturbations. We suggest that a mechanism acting to amplify carbon cycle perturbations is the key to explaining the power-law distribution, and identify the anoxia-productivity feedback as the most likely candidate. Establishment of sulfidic conditions is accompanied by increased release of phosphate to the water column, which allows for further productivity, and thus acts as a destabilizing, positive, feedback. This feedback would act to increase carbon cycle swings irrespective of their proximal trigger. The decline in frequency of anoxic-sulfidic bottom waters in the world's oceans, and potential disappearance in the Late Mesozoic-Cenozoic, may account for a reduction in the Earth system's gain and increase in its resilience.

Increased water deficit decreases Douglas fir growth throughout western US forests

Treesearch

Christina M. Restaino; David L. Peterson; Jeremy Littell

2016-01-01

Changes in tree growth rates can affect tree mortality and forest feedbacks to the global carbon cycle. As air temperature increases, evaporative demand also increases, increasing effective drought in forest ecosystems. Using a spatially comprehensive network of Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) chronologies from 122 locations that represent distinct climate...

Emergent constraints on climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in the CMIP5 Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wenzel, Sabrina; Cox, Peter M.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2014-05-01

An emergent linear relationship between the long-term sensitivity of tropical land carbon storage to climate warming (γLT) and the short-term sensitivity of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) to interannual temperature variability (γIAV) has previously been identified by Cox et al. (2013) across an ensemble of Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP). Here we examine whether such a constraint also holds for a new set of eight ESMs participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. A wide spread in tropical land carbon storage is found for the quadrupling of atmospheric CO2, which is of the order of 252 ± 112 GtC when carbon-climate feedbacks are enabled. Correspondingly, the spread in γLT is wide (-49 ± 40 GtC/K) and thus remains one of the key uncertainties in climate projections. A tight correlation is found between the long-term sensitivity of tropical land carbon and the short-term sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 (γLT versus γIAV), which enables the projections to be constrained with observations. The observed short-term sensitivity of CO2 (-4.4 ± 0.9 GtC/yr/K) sharpens the range of γLT to -44 ± 14 GtC/K, which overlaps with the probability density function derived from the C4MIP models (-53 ± 17 GtC/K) by Cox et al. (2013), even though the lines relating γLT and γIAV differ in the two cases. Emergent constraints of this type provide a means to focus ESM evaluation against observations on the metrics most relevant to projections of future climate change.

Carbon exchange fluxes over peatlands in Western Siberia: Possible feedback between land-use change and climate change.

PubMed

Fleischer, Elisa; Khashimov, Ilhom; Hölzel, Norbert; Klemm, Otto

2016-03-01

The growing demand for agricultural products has been leading to an expansion and intensification of agriculture around the world. More and more unused land is currently reclaimed in the regions of the former Soviet Union. Driven by climate change, the Western Siberian grain belt might, in a long-term, even expand into the drained peatland areas to the North. It is crucial to study the consequences of this land-use change with respect to the carbon cycling as this is still a major knowledge gap. We present for the first time data on the atmosphere-ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide and methane of an arable field and a neighboring unused grassland on peat soil in Western Siberia. Eddy covariance measurements were performed over one vegetation period. No directed methane fluxes were found due to an effective drainage of the study sites. The carbon dioxide fluxes appeared to be of high relevance for the global carbon and greenhouse gas cycles. They showed very site-specific patterns resulting from the development of vegetation: the persistent plants of the grassland were able to start photosynthesizing soon after snow melt, while the absence of vegetation on the managed field lead to a phase of emissions until the oat plants started to grow in June. The uptake peak of the oat field is much later than that of the grassland, but larger due to a rapid plant growth. Budgeting the whole measurement period, the grassland served as a carbon sink, whereas the oat field was identified to be a carbon source. The conversion from non-used grasslands on peat soil to cultivated fields in Western Siberia is therefore considered to have a positive feedback on climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Performance Characterization and Simulation of Amine-Based Vacuum Swing Adsorption Units for Spacesuit Carbon Dioxide and Humidity Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swickrath, Michael J.; Watts,Carly; Anderson, Molly; McMillin, Summer; Boerman, Craig; Colunga, Aaron; Vogel, Matthew

2011-01-01

Controlling carbon dioxide (CO2) and water (H2O) concentrations in the vapor phase of a space suit is critical to ensuring an astronauts safety, comfortability, and capability to perform extra-vehicular activity (EVA) tasks. Historically, this has been accomplished using lithium hydroxide (LiOH) and metal oxides (MetOx). Lithium hydroxide is a consumable material and requires priming with water before it becomes effective at removing carbon dioxide. MetOx is regenerable through a power-intensive thermal cycle but is significantly heavier on a volume basis than LiOH. As an alternative, amine-based vacuum swing beds are under aggressive development for EVA applications which control atmospheric concentrations of both CO2 and H2O through a fully-regenerative process. The current concept, referred to as the rapid cycle amine (RCA), has resulted in numerous laboratory prototypes. Performance of these prototypes have been assessed and documented from experimental and theoretical perspectives. To support developmental efforts, a first principles model has also been established for the vacuum swing adsorption technology. The efforts documented herein summarize performance characterization and simulation results for several variable metabolic profiles subjected to the RCA. Furthermore, a variety of control methods are explored including timed swing cycles, instantaneous CO2 feedback control, and time-averaged CO2 feedback control. A variety of off-nominal tests are also explored including high/low suit temperatures, increasingly high humidity cases, and dynamic pressure cases simulating the suit pre-breathe protocol. Consequently, this work builds on efforts previous efforts to fully bound the performance of the rapid cycle amine under a variety of nominal and off-nominal conditions.

Preface: Impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances on carbon dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xiao, Jingfeng; Liu, Shuguang; Stoy, Paul C.

2016-01-01

The impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances (ECE&D) on the carbon cycle have received growing attention in recent years. This special issue showcases a collection of recent advances in understanding the impacts of ECE&D on carbon cycling. Notable advances include quantifying how harvesting activities impact forest structure, carbon pool dynamics, and recovery processes; observed drastic increases of the concentrations of dissolved organic carbon and dissolved methane in thermokarst lakes in western Siberia during a summer warming event; disentangling the roles of herbivores and fire on forest carbon dioxide flux; direct and indirect impacts of fire on the global carbon balance; and improved atmospheric inversion of regional carbon sources and sinks by incorporating disturbances. Combined, studies herein indicate several major research needs. First, disturbances and extreme events can interact with one another, and it is important to understand their overall impacts and also disentangle their effects on the carbon cycle. Second, current ecosystem models are not skillful enough to correctly simulate the underlying processes and impacts of ECE&D (e.g., tree mortality and carbon consequences). Third, benchmark data characterizing the timing, location, type, and magnitude of disturbances must be systematically created to improve our ability to quantify carbon dynamics over large areas. Finally, improving the representation of ECE&D in regional climate/earth system models and accounting for the resulting feedbacks to climate are essential for understanding the interactions between climate and ecosystem dynamics.

Coupling carbon isotopes with astrochronology and correlation techniques for Late Cretaceous chronostratigraphic refinement and paleoclimate reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, M. M.; Sageman, B. B.; Meyers, S. R.

2016-12-01

Late Cretaceous carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) recorded in organic matter and marine carbonates preserve an archive of the global carbon cycle in a greenhouse climate state. Due to excellent connectivity among surface carbon reservoirs and the low residence time of carbon in them, excursions in the δ13C that record changes in fluxes serve as widely correlative chronostratigraphic markers. In this study, floating astronomical time scales (ATS) from an organic carbon-rich marine Turonian succession at Demerara Rise (tropical N. Atlantic) are combined with high-resolution δ13C chemostratigraphy to estimate CIE timing and duration for refinement of the geologic time scale. In addition, a Gaussian kernel smoothing technique for objective correlation of astronomically tuned δ13C records is developed. Correlation with three coeval Turonian sections (Western Interior Basin, Texas, & Europe) shows consistency in astronomical and radioisotopic time scale ages for CIEs. In particular, a mid-Turonian sea level fall is demonstrated to be synchronous within 100 ka uncertainty. Spectral analyses of δ13Corg, %TOC, %Carbonate, and C/N time series provide insights into astronomical forcings influencing paleoclimate and paleoceanographic conditions in the tropical proto-North Atlantic upwelling zone. The stable long eccentricity cycle ( 405 ka) is robustly recorded in all geochemical data, and has the highest amplitude in %TOC, %Carbonate, and C/N time series. However, δ13C from Demerara Rise is dominated by a 1 Myr cycle resembling long obliquity, suggesting a dynamic organic carbon reservoir and/or climate feedback originating in high-latitudes was prominent during the Turonian greenhouse carbon cycle. This investigation emphasizes δ13C chemostratigraphy and astrochronology are useful chronostratigraphic methods for importing high-resolution time control into disparate basins to answer questions regarding sea level records, paleoclimate, and mass extinction on a global scale, and at the same time for deciphering the response of the global carbon cycle to astronomical climate forcing.

Extreme warming, photic zone euxinia and sea level rise during the Paleocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum on the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Plain; connecting marginal marine biotic signals, nutrient cycling and ocean deoxygenation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sluijs, A.; van Roij, L.; Harrington, G. J.; Schouten, S.; Sessa, J. A.; LeVay, L. J.; Reichart, G.-J.; Slomp, C. P.

2013-12-01

The Paleocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~56 Ma) was a ~200 kyr episode of global warming, associated with massive injections of 13C-depleted carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system. Although climate change during the PETM is relatively well constrained, effects on marine oxygen and nutrient cycling remain largely unclear. We identify the PETM in a sediment core from the US margin of the Gulf of Mexico. Biomarker-based paleotemperature proxies (MBT/CBT and TEX86) indicate that continental air and sea surface temperatures warmed from 27-29 °C to ~35 °C, although variations in the relative abundances of terrestrial and marine biomarkers may have influenced the record. Vegetation changes as recorded from pollen assemblages supports profound warming. Lithology, relative abundances of terrestrial vs. marine palynomorphs as well as dinoflagellate cyst and biomarker assemblages indicate sea level rise during the PETM, consistent with previously recognized eustatic rise. The recognition of a maximum flooding surface during the PETM changes regional sequence stratigraphic interpretations, which allows us to exclude the previously posed hypothesis that a nearby fossil found in PETM-deposits represents the first North American primate. Within the PETM we record the biomarker isorenieratane, diagnostic of euxinic photic zone conditions. A global data compilation indicates that deoxygenation occurred in large regions of the global ocean in response to warming, hydrological change, and carbon cycle feedbacks, particularly along continental margins, analogous to modern trends. Seafloor deoxygenation and widespread anoxia likely caused phosphorus regeneration from suboxic and anoxic sediments. We argue that this fuelled shelf eutrophication, as widely recorded from microfossil studies, increasing organic carbon burial along continental margins as a negative feedback to carbon input and global warming. If properly quantified with future work, the PETM offers the opportunity to assess the biogeochemical effects of enhanced phosphorus regeneration, as well as the time-scales on which this feedback operates in view of modern and future ocean deoxygenation.

Testing the sulfate-phosphorous hypothesis for initiation of the early Aptian OAE1a

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, J. V.; Gomes, M. L.; Sageman, B. B.; Hurtgen, M. T.

2012-12-01

Oceanic anoxic events (OAEs) were short-lived (<1-myr) episodes of widespread marine organic carbon burial and anoxia that occurred during the Mesozoic. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain these intervals of increased organic carbon production and preservation, yet none have satisfactorily accounted for the short-term character and widespread effects of the events. Some recent work has focused on the role of sulfur in the initiation/termination mechanism of these events, specifically the potential impact of a large increase in marine sulfate levels upon a very low sulfate background. Previous authors have suggested that a large pulse of volcanic-derived sulfur could have initiated widespread anoxia through a positive feedback cycle of enhanced phosphorous recycling and increased primary production. In this model, a sudden pulse of sulfur upon a low sulfate background impacts the biogeochemical cycles of sulfur and iron, leading to an escalation in phosphorous (P) release from sediments during organic matter degradation. The resulting sulfate-P feedback cycle, recognized in modern lake systems, continues until sulfate levels are drawn down by pyrite burial, thus ending the anoxic event. To test this hypothesis, we examine sulfur and carbon isotopes through the early Aptian OAE1a (~120 Ma) from Resolution Guyot in the Mid-Pacific Mountains (ODP Site 866). We present sulfur isotope records of carbonate-associated sulfate (CAS), which provide a higher resolution record than other sulfate records (e.g. marine barites), to infer how sulfate concentrations changed through the event. A decrease of ~5 permil in the CAS sulfur isotope composition through the event suggests either that massive volcanism delivered 34S-depleted sulfate to the oceans and/or that large-scale evaporite (calcium sulfate) deposition forced a reduction in marine sulfate levels and associated rates of pyrite burial. These results will be discussed within the context of evolving δ34Spyrite values in order to better constrain the evolution of marine sulfate concentrations through this time period and evaluate the importance of the sulfate-P feedback mechanism in regulating OAE1a.

Hydrologic control of carbon cycling and aged carbon discharge in the Congo River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schefuß, Enno; Eglinton, Timothy I.; Spencer-Jones, Charlotte L.; Rullkötter, Jürgen; de Pol-Holz, Ricardo; Talbot, Helen M.; Grootes, Pieter M.; Schneider, Ralph R.

2016-09-01

The age of organic material discharged by rivers provides information about its sources and carbon cycling processes within watersheds. Although elevated ages in fluvially transported organic matter are usually explained by erosion of soils and sedimentary deposits, it is commonly assumed that mainly young organic material is discharged from flat tropical watersheds due to their extensive plant cover and rapid carbon turnover. Here we present compound-specific radiocarbon data of terrigenous organic fractions from a sedimentary archive offshore the Congo River, in conjunction with molecular markers for methane-producing land cover reflecting wetland extent. We find that the Congo River has been discharging aged organic matter for several thousand years, with apparently increasing ages from the mid- to the Late Holocene. This suggests that aged organic matter in modern samples is concealed by radiocarbon from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing. By comparison to indicators for past rainfall changes we detect a systematic control of organic matter sequestration and release by continental hydrology, mediating temporary carbon storage in wetlands. As aridification also leads to exposure and rapid remineralization of large amounts of previously stored labile organic matter, we infer that this process may cause a profound direct climate feedback that is at present underestimated in carbon cycle assessments.

Development of Advanced Eco-hydrologic and Biogeochemical Coupling Model to Constrain Missing Role of Inland Waters on Boundless Biogeochemical Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakayama, T.; Maksyutov, S. S.

2016-12-01

Inland waters including rivers, lakes, and groundwater are suggested to act as a transport pathway for water and dissolved substances, and play some role in continental biogeochemical cycling (Cole et al., 2007; Battin et al., 2009). The authors have developed process-based National Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology (NICE) model (Nakayama, 2014, 2015, etc.), which includes feedback between hydrologic-geomorphic-ecological processes. In this study, NICE was further developed to couple with various biogeochemical cycle models in biosphere, those for water quality in aquatic ecosystems, and those for carbon weathering, etc. (NICE-BGC) (Nakayama, accepted). The new model incorporates connectivity of the biogeochemical cycle accompanied by hydrologic cycle between surface water and groundwater, hillslopes and river networks, and other intermediate regions. The model also includes reaction between inorganic and organic carbons, and its relation to nitrogen and phosphorus in terrestrial-aquatic continuum. The model results of CO2 evasion to the atmosphere, sediment storage, and carbon transport to the ocean (DOC, POC, and DIC flux) were reasonably in good agreement with previous compiled data. The model also showed carbon budget in major river basins and in each continent in global scale. In order to decrease uncertainty about carbon cycle, it became clear the previous empirical estimation by compiled data should be extended to this process-oriented model and higher resolution data to further clarify mechanistic interplay between inorganic and organic carbon and its relationship to nitrogen and phosphorus in terrestrial-aquatic linkages. NICE-BGC would play important role to re-evaluate greenhouse gas budget of the biosphere, and to bridge gap between top-down and bottom-up approaches (Battin et al., 2009; Regnier et al., 2013).

A Scientific Synthesis and Assessment of the Arctic Carbon Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, Daniel J.; Guo, Laodong; McGuire, A. David

2007-06-01

The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), along with the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) Project and the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), sponsored the Arctic Carbon Cycle Assessment Workshop, at the Red Lion Hotel in Seattle, Wash., between 27 February and 1 March 2007. The workshop was held in a general effort toward the scientific synthesis and assessment of the Arctic system carbon cycle, as well as to generate feedback on the working draft of an assessment document. The initial assessment was prepared by the Arctic carbon cycle assessment writing team, which is led by A. David McGuire (University of Alaska Fairbanks) and includes Leif Anderson (Goteborg University, Sweden), Torben Christensen (Lund University, Sweden), Scott Dallimore (Natural Resources Canada), Laodong Guo (University of Southern Mississippi), Martin Heimann (Max Planck Institute, Germany), Robie MacDonald (Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Canada), and Nigel Roulet (McGill University, Canada). The workshop brought together leading researchers in the fields of terrestrial, marine, and atmospheric science to report on and discuss the current state of knowledge on contemporary carbon stocks and fluxes in the Artie and their potential responses to a changing climate. The workshop was attended by 35 scientists representing institutions from 10 countries in addition to two representatives of the sponsor agencies (John Calder for AMAP and Diane Verseghy for CliC).

The Contemporary Carbon Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houghton, R. A.

2003-12-01

The global carbon cycle refers to the exchanges of carbon within and between four major reservoirs: the atmosphere, the oceans, land, and fossil fuels. Carbon may be transferred from one reservoir to another in seconds (e.g., the fixation of atmospheric CO2 into sugar through photosynthesis) or over millennia (e.g., the accumulation of fossil carbon (coal, oil, gas) through deposition and diagenesis of organic matter). This chapter emphasizes the exchanges that are important over years to decades and includes those occurring over the scale of months to a few centuries. The focus will be on the years 1980-2000 but our considerations will broadly include the years ˜1850-2100. Chapter 8.09, deals with longer-term processes that involve rates of carbon exchange that are small on an annual timescale (weathering, vulcanism, sedimentation, and diagenesis).The carbon cycle is important for at least three reasons. First, carbon forms the structure of all life on the planet, making up ˜50% of the dry weight of living things. Second, the cycling of carbon approximates the flows of energy around the Earth, the metabolism of natural, human, and industrial systems. Plants transform radiant energy into chemical energy in the form of sugars, starches, and other forms of organic matter; this energy, whether in living organisms or dead organic matter, supports food chains in natural ecosystems as well as human ecosystems, not the least of which are industrial societies habituated (addicted?) to fossil forms of energy for heating, transportation, and generation of electricity. The increased use of fossil fuels has led to a third reason for interest in the carbon cycle. Carbon, in the form of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), forms two of the most important greenhouse gases. These gases contribute to a natural greenhouse effect that has kept the planet warm enough to evolve and support life (without the greenhouse effect the Earth's average temperature would be -33°C). Additions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from industrial activity, however, are increasing the concentrations of these gases, enhancing the greenhouse effect, and starting to warm the Earth.The rate and extent of the warming depend, in part, on the global carbon cycle. If the rate at which the oceans remove CO2 from the atmosphere were faster, e.g., concentrations of CO2 would have increased less over the last century. If the processes removing carbon from the atmosphere and storing it on land were to diminish, concentrations of CO2 would increase more rapidly than projected on the basis of recent history. The processes responsible for adding carbon to, and withdrawing it from, the atmosphere are not well enough understood to predict future levels of CO2 with great accuracy. These processes are a part of the global carbon cycle.Some of the processes that add carbon to the atmosphere or remove it, such as the combustion of fossil fuels and the establishment of tree plantations, are under direct human control. Others, such as the accumulation of carbon in the oceans or on land as a result of changes in global climate (i.e., feedbacks between the global carbon cycle and climate), are not under direct human control except through controlling rates of greenhouse gas emissions and, hence, climatic change. Because CO2 has been more important than all of the other greenhouse gases under human control, combined, and is expected to continue so in the future, understanding the global carbon cycle is a vital part of managing global climate.This chapter addresses, first, the reservoirs and natural flows of carbon on the earth. It then addresses the sources of carbon to the atmosphere from human uses of land and energy and the sinks of carbon on land and in the oceans that have kept the atmospheric accumulation of CO2 lower than it would otherwise have been. The chapter describes changes in the distribution of carbon among the atmosphere, oceans, and terrestrial ecosystems over the past 150 years as a result of human-induced emissions of carbon. The processes responsible for sinks of carbon on land and in the sea are reviewed from the perspective of feedbacks, and the chapter concludes with some prospects for the future.Earlier comprehensive summaries of the global carbon cycle include studies by Bolin et al. (1979, 1986), Woodwell and Pecan (1973), Bolin (1981), NRC (1983), Sundquist and Broecker (1985), and Trabalka (1985). More recently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has summarized information on the carbon cycle in the context of climate change ( Watson et al., 1990; Schimel et al., 1996; Prentice et al., 2001). The basic aspects of the global carbon cycle have been understood for decades, but other aspects, such as the partitioning of the carbon sink between land and ocean, are being re-evaluated continuously with new data and analyses. The rate at which new publications revise estimates of these carbon sinks and re-evaluate the mechanisms that control the magnitude of the sinks suggests that portions of this review will be out of date by the time of publication.

Correlated declines in Pacific arctic snow and sea ice cover

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Robert P.; Douglas, David C.; Belchansky, Gennady I.; Drobot, Sheldon

2005-01-01

Simulations of future climate suggest that global warming will reduce Arctic snow and ice cover, resulting in decreased surface albedo (reflectivity). Lowering of the surface albedo leads to further warming by increasing solar absorption at the surface. This phenomenon is referred to as “temperature–albedo feedback.” Anticipation of such a feedback is one reason why scientists look to the Arctic for early indications of global warming. Much of the Arctic has warmed significantly. Northern Hemisphere snow cover has decreased, and sea ice has diminished in area and thickness. As reported in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment in 2004, the trends are considered to be outside the range of natural variability, implicating global warming as an underlying cause. Changing climatic conditions in the high northern latitudes have influenced biogeochemical cycles on a broad scale. Warming has already affected the sea ice, the tundra, the plants, the animals, and the indigenous populations that depend on them. Changing annual cycles of snow and sea ice also affect sources and sinks of important greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide and methane), further complicating feedbacks involving the global budgets of these important constituents. For instance, thawing permafrost increases the extent of tundra wetlands and lakes, releasing greater amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Variable sea ice cover may affect the hemispheric carbon budget by altering the ocean–atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide. There is growing concern that amplification of global warming in the Arctic will have far-reaching effects on lower latitude climate through these feedback mechanisms. Despite the diverse and convincing observational evidence that the Arctic environment is changing, it remains unclear whether these changes are anthropogenically forced or result from natural variations of the climate system. A better understanding of what controls the seasonal distributions of snow and ice is fundamental to the problem.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erickson III, David J.; Sulzberger, Barbara; Zepp, Richard G.

Climate change modulates the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, particularly for carbon cycling, resulting in UV-mediated positive or negative feedbacks on climate. Possible positive feedbacks discussed in this assessment include: (i) enhanced UV-induced mineralisation of above ground litter due to aridification; (ii) enhanced UV-induced mineralisation of photoreactive dissolved organic matter (DOM) in aquatic ecosystems due to changes in continental runoff and ice melting; (iii) reduced efficiency of the biological pump due to UV-induced bleaching of coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in stratified aquatic ecosystems, where CDOM protects phytoplankton from the damaging solarmore » UV-B radiation. Mineralisation of organic matter results in the production and release of CO 2, whereas the biological pump is the main biological process for CO 2 removal by aquatic ecosystems. This research also assesses the interactive effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on the biogeochemical cycling of aerosols and trace gases other than CO 2, as well as of chemical and biological contaminants. Lastly,, interacting effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycles are particularly pronounced at terrestrial-aquatic interfaces.« less

Sea level and ground water table depth (WTD): A biogeochemical pacemaker for glacial-interglacial cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowling, S. A.

2016-11-01

The role that changes in sea level have on potential carbon-climate feedbacks are discussed as a potential contributing mechanism for terminating glacial periods. Focus will be on coastal wetlands because these systems can be substantially altered by changing sea level and ground water table depth (WTD); in addition to being important moderators of the exchange of nutrients and energy between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. A hypothesis is outlined that describes how the release of carbon from formerly anaerobic wetland soils and sediments can influence climate when sea levels begin to decline. As ground WTD deepens and eventually recedes from the surface, coastal wetland basins may become isolated from their belowground source of water. With their primary source of base flow removed, coastal wetlands likely dried up, promoting decomposition of the carbon compounds buried in their sediments. Depending on the timing of basin isolation and the timing of decomposition, glacial sea level lows could have triggered a relatively large positive carbon feedback on climate warming, just at the time when a new interglacial period is about to begin.

Radiocarbon constraints imply reduced carbon uptake by soils during the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

He, Yujie; Trumbore, Susan E.; Torn, Margaret S.; Harden, Jennifer W.; Vaughn, Lydia J.S.; Allison, Steven D.; Randerson, J.T.

2016-01-01

Soil is the largest terrestrial carbon reservoir and may influence the sign and magnitude of carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Many Earth system models (ESMs) estimate a significant soil carbon sink by 2100, yet the underlying carbon dynamics determining this response have not been systematically tested against observations. We used 14C data from 157 globally distributed soil profiles sampled to 1 m depth to show that ESMs underestimated the mean age of soil carbon by more than six-fold (430±50 years vs. 3100±1800 years). Consequently, ESMs overestimated the carbon sequestration potential of soils by nearly two-fold (40±27%). These biases suggest that ESMs must better represent carbon stabilization processes and the turnover time of slow and passive reservoirs when simulating future atmospheric CO2 dynamics.

Very large release of mostly volcanic carbon during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

PubMed Central

Gutjahr, Marcus; Ridgwell, Andy; Sexton, Philip F.; Anagnostou, Eleni; Pearson, Paul N.; Pälike, Heiko; Norris, Richard D.; Thomas, Ellen; Foster, Gavin L.

2017-01-01

Global warming during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum1,2 (PETM, ~56 Ma) is commonly interpreted as being primarily driven by the destabilization of carbon from surficial sedimentary reservoirs such as methane hydrates3. However, the source(s) of carbon remain controversial1,3–5. Resolving this is key to understanding the proximal cause, as well as quantifying the roles of triggers versus feedbacks in driving the event. Here we present new boron isotope data – a proxy for seawater pH – that demonstrate the occurrence of persistently suppressed surface ocean pH across the PETM. Our pH data, alongside a paired carbon isotope record, are assimilated in an Earth system model to reconstruct the unfolding carbon cycle dynamics across the event6,7. We find strong evidence for a much larger (>10,000 PgC) and on average isotopically heavier carbon source than considered previously8,9. This leads us to identify volcanism associated with the North Atlantic Igneous Province, rather than carbon from a surficial reservoir, as the main driver of the PETM10,11. We also find that, although amplifying organic carbon feedbacks with climate likely played only a subordinate role in driving the event, enhanced organic matter burial was important in ultimately sequestering the released carbon and accelerating the recovery of the Earth system12. PMID:28858305

Above- and belowground linkages in Sphagnum peatland: climate warming affects plant-microbial interactions.

PubMed

Jassey, Vincent E J; Chiapusio, Geneviève; Binet, Philippe; Buttler, Alexandre; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima; Delarue, Frédéric; Bernard, Nadine; Mitchell, Edward A D; Toussaint, Marie-Laure; Francez, André-Jean; Gilbert, Daniel

2013-03-01

Peatlands contain approximately one third of all soil organic carbon (SOC). Warming can alter above- and belowground linkages that regulate soil organic carbon dynamics and C-balance in peatlands. Here we examine the multiyear impact of in situ experimental warming on the microbial food web, vegetation, and their feedbacks with soil chemistry. We provide evidence of both positive and negative impacts of warming on specific microbial functional groups, leading to destabilization of the microbial food web. We observed a strong reduction (70%) in the biomass of top-predators (testate amoebae) in warmed plots. Such a loss caused a shortening of microbial food chains, which in turn stimulated microbial activity, leading to slight increases in levels of nutrients and labile C in water. We further show that warming altered the regulatory role of Sphagnum-polyphenols on microbial community structure with a potential inhibition of top predators. In addition, warming caused a decrease in Sphagnum cover and an increase in vascular plant cover. Using structural equation modelling, we show that changes in the microbial food web affected the relationships between plants, soil water chemistry, and microbial communities. These results suggest that warming will destabilize C and nutrient recycling of peatlands via changes in above- and belowground linkages, and therefore, the microbial food web associated with mosses will feedback positively to global warming by destabilizing the carbon cycle. This study confirms that microbial food webs thus constitute a key element in the functioning of peatland ecosystems. Their study can help understand how mosses, as ecosystem engineers, tightly regulate biogeochemical cycling and climate feedback in peatlands. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Sources and Fluxes of Atmospheric Methane from Lakes in the Alaskan Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Townsend-Small, A.; Akerstrom, F.; Hinkel, K. M.; Arp, C. D.; Beck, R. A.; Grosse, G.; Jones, B. M.; Kim, C.; Lenters, J. D.; Liu, H.; Eisner, W. R.

2014-12-01

Climate warming in the Arctic may result in release of carbon dioxide and/or methane from thawing permafrost soils, resulting in a positive feedback to warming. Permafrost thaw may also result in release of methane from previously trapped natural gas. The Arctic landscape is approximately 50% covered by shallow permafrost lakes, and these environments may serve as bellwethers for climate change - carbon cycle feedbacks, since permafrost thaw is generally deeper under lakes than tundra soils. Since 2011, the Circum-Arctic Lakes Observation Network (CALON) project has documented landscape-scale variability in physical and biogeochemical processes of Arctic lakes in permafrost terrain, including carbon cycle feedbacks to climate warming. Here we present a dataset of concentrations, isotope ratios (13C and 2H), and atmospheric fluxes of methane from lakes in Arctic Alaska. Concentrations of methane in lake water ranged from 0.3 to 43 micrograms per liter, or between 6 and 750 times supersaturated with respect to air. Isotopic measurements of dissolved methane indicated that most of the lakes had methane derived from anaerobic organic matter decomposition, but that some lakes may have a small source of methane from fossil fuel sources such as natural gas or coal beds. Concurrent measurements of methane fluxes and dissolved methane concentrations in summer of 2014 will aid in translating routine dissolved measurements into fluxes, and will also elucidate the relative importance of diffusive versus ebulliative fluxes. It is essential that measurements of methane emissions from Arctic lakes be continued long-term to determine whether methane emissions are on the rise, and whether warming of the lakes leads to increased venting of fossil fuel methane from enhanced thaw of permafrost beneath the lakes.

Subalpine Forest Carbon Cycling Short- and Long-Term Influence ofClimate and Species

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kueppers, L.; Harte, J.

2005-08-23

Ecosystem carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change comprise one of the largest remaining sources of uncertainty in global model predictions of future climate. Both direct climate effects on carbon cycling and indirect effects via climate-induced shifts in species composition may alter ecosystem carbon balance over the long term. In the short term, climate effects on carbon cycling may be mediated by ecosystem species composition. We used an elevational climate and tree species composition gradient in Rocky Mountain subalpine forest to quantify the sensitivity of all major ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes to these factors. The climate sensitivities of carbon fluxesmore » were species-specific in the cases of relative above ground productivity and litter decomposition, whereas the climate sensitivity of dead wood decay did not differ between species, and total annual soil CO2 flux showed no strong climate trend. Lodge pole pine relative productivity increased with warmer temperatures and earlier snowmelt, while Engelmann spruce relative productivity was insensitive to climate variables. Engelmann spruce needle decomposition decreased linearly with increasing temperature(decreasing litter moisture), while lodgepole pine and subalpine fir needle decay showed a hump-shaped temperature response. We also found that total ecosystem carbon declined by 50 percent with a 2.88C increase in mean annual temperature and a concurrent 63 percent decrease ingrowing season soil moisture, primarily due to large declines in mineral soil and dead wood carbon. We detected no independent effect of species composition on ecosystem C stocks. Overall, our carbon flux results suggest that, in the short term, any change in subalpine forest net carbon balance will depend on the specific climate scenario and spatial distribution of tree species. Over the long term, our carbon stock results suggest that with regional warming and drying, Rocky Mountain subalpine forest will be a net source of carbon to the atmosphere.« less

Persistent high temperature and low precipitation reduce peat carbon accumulation.

PubMed

Bragazza, Luca; Buttler, Alexandre; Robroek, Bjorn J M; Albrecht, Remy; Zaccone, Claudio; Jassey, Vincent E J; Signarbieux, Constant

2016-12-01

Extreme climate events are predicted to become more frequent and intense. Their ecological impacts, particularly on carbon cycling, can differ in relation to ecosystem sensitivity. Peatlands, being characterized by peat accumulation under waterlogged conditions, can be particularly sensitive to climate extremes if the climate event increases soil oxygenation. However, a mechanistic understanding of peatland responses to persistent climate extremes is still lacking, particularly in terms of aboveground-belowground feedback. Here, we present the results of a transplantation experiment of peat mesocosms from high to low altitude in order to simulate, during 3 years, a mean annual temperature c. 5 °C higher and a mean annual precipitation c. 60% lower. Specifically, we aim at understanding the intensity of changes for a set of biogeochemical processes and their feedback on carbon accumulation. In the transplanted mesocosms, plant productivity showed a species-specific response depending on plant growth forms, with a significant decrease (c. 60%) in peat moss productivity. Soil respiration almost doubled and Q 10 halved in the transplanted mesocosms in combination with an increase in activity of soil enzymes. Spectroscopic characterization of peat chemistry in the transplanted mesocosms confirmed the deepening of soil oxygenation which, in turn, stimulated microbial decomposition. After 3 years, soil carbon stock increased only in the control mesocosms whereas a reduction in mean annual carbon accumulation of c. 30% was observed in the transplanted mesocosms. Based on the above information, a structural equation model was built to provide a mechanistic understanding of the causal connections between peat moisture, vegetation response, soil respiration and carbon accumulation. This study identifies, in the feedback between plant and microbial responses, the primary pathways explaining the reduction in carbon accumulation in response to recurring climate extremes in peat soils. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tiny and Hidden but Changing Your World: The Importance of Soil Microbes to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldo, N.; Neumann, R. B.

2017-12-01

When most people think about global climate change they think about massive power plants billowing smoke and expansive glaciers melting to nothingness. What the public often overlooks is how natural processes invisible to the naked eye can be changed by the climate, and the fact that the natural response to those changes can further alter the climate. Scientists call these reactions "feedback cycles", and understanding them is crucial to predicting the true impact of human activities. In our research, we study one particular feedback cycle: the effect of increased plant productivity on methane emissions from wetlands. Globally, wetlands account for about a third of annual emissions of methane, the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. This heat-trapping gas is generated in the soil of wetlands by microscopic organisms that consume, among other things, proteins and sugars released by the roots of plants. As the atmosphere becomes warmer and richer in carbon dioxide, these plants will grow larger and faster, releasing more of this microbe food into the soil. Our current research seeks to understand how that will affect the microbial ecosystem, and through it the emissions of methane gas.

Sensitivities of marine carbon fluxes to ocean change.

PubMed

Riebesell, Ulf; Körtzinger, Arne; Oschlies, Andreas

2009-12-08

Throughout Earth's history, the oceans have played a dominant role in the climate system through the storage and transport of heat and the exchange of water and climate-relevant gases with the atmosphere. The ocean's heat capacity is approximately 1,000 times larger than that of the atmosphere, its content of reactive carbon more than 60 times larger. Through a variety of physical, chemical, and biological processes, the ocean acts as a driver of climate variability on time scales ranging from seasonal to interannual to decadal to glacial-interglacial. The same processes will also be involved in future responses of the ocean to global change. Here we assess the responses of the seawater carbonate system and of the ocean's physical and biological carbon pumps to (i) ocean warming and the associated changes in vertical mixing and overturning circulation, and (ii) ocean acidification and carbonation. Our analysis underscores that many of these responses have the potential for significant feedback to the climate system. Because several of the underlying processes are interlinked and nonlinear, the sign and magnitude of the ocean's carbon cycle feedback to climate change is yet unknown. Understanding these processes and their sensitivities to global change will be crucial to our ability to project future climate change.

Uncertainty in Earth System Models: Benchmarks for Ocean Model Performance and Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogunro, O. O.; Elliott, S.; Collier, N.; Wingenter, O. W.; Deal, C.; Fu, W.; Hoffman, F. M.

2017-12-01

The mean ocean CO2 sink is a major component of the global carbon budget, with marine reservoirs holding about fifty times more carbon than the atmosphere. Phytoplankton play a significant role in the net carbon sink through photosynthesis and drawdown, such that about a quarter of anthropogenic CO2 emissions end up in the ocean. Biology greatly increases the efficiency of marine environments in CO2 uptake and ultimately reduces the impact of the persistent rise in atmospheric concentrations. However, a number of challenges remain in appropriate representation of marine biogeochemical processes in Earth System Models (ESM). These threaten to undermine the community effort to quantify seasonal to multidecadal variability in ocean uptake of atmospheric CO2. In a bid to improve analyses of marine contributions to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, we have developed new analysis methods and biogeochemistry metrics as part of the International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) effort. Our intent is to meet the growing diagnostic and benchmarking needs of ocean biogeochemistry models. The resulting software package has been employed to validate DOE ocean biogeochemistry results by comparison with observational datasets. Several other international ocean models contributing results to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were analyzed simultaneously. Our comparisons suggest that the biogeochemical processes determining CO2 entry into the global ocean are not well represented in most ESMs. Polar regions continue to show notable biases in many critical biogeochemical and physical oceanographic variables. Some of these disparities could have first order impacts on the conversion of atmospheric CO2 to organic carbon. In addition, single forcing simulations show that the current ocean state can be partly explained by the uptake of anthropogenic emissions. Combined effects of two or more of these forcings on ocean biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems are challenging to predict since additive or antagonistic effects may occur. A benchmarking tool for accurate assessment and validation of marine biogeochemical outputs will be indispensable as the model community continues to improve ESM developments. It will provide a first order tool in understanding climate-carbon cycle feedbacks.

Plant species traits are the predominant control on litter decomposition rates within biomes worldwide.

PubMed

Cornwell, William K; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Amatangelo, Kathryn; Dorrepaal, Ellen; Eviner, Valerie T; Godoy, Oscar; Hobbie, Sarah E; Hoorens, Bart; Kurokawa, Hiroko; Pérez-Harguindeguy, Natalia; Quested, Helen M; Santiago, Louis S; Wardle, David A; Wright, Ian J; Aerts, Rien; Allison, Steven D; van Bodegom, Peter; Brovkin, Victor; Chatain, Alex; Callaghan, Terry V; Díaz, Sandra; Garnier, Eric; Gurvich, Diego E; Kazakou, Elena; Klein, Julia A; Read, Jenny; Reich, Peter B; Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A; Vaieretti, M Victoria; Westoby, Mark

2008-10-01

Worldwide decomposition rates depend both on climate and the legacy of plant functional traits as litter quality. To quantify the degree to which functional differentiation among species affects their litter decomposition rates, we brought together leaf trait and litter mass loss data for 818 species from 66 decomposition experiments on six continents. We show that: (i) the magnitude of species-driven differences is much larger than previously thought and greater than climate-driven variation; (ii) the decomposability of a species' litter is consistently correlated with that species' ecological strategy within different ecosystems globally, representing a new connection between whole plant carbon strategy and biogeochemical cycling. This connection between plant strategies and decomposability is crucial for both understanding vegetation-soil feedbacks, and for improving forecasts of the global carbon cycle.

Relationships between CO 2, thermodynamic limits on silicate weathering, and the strength of the silicate weathering feedback

DOE PAGES

Winnick, Matthew J.; Maher, Kate

2018-01-27

Recent studies have suggested that thermodynamic limitations on chemical weathering rates exert a first-order control on riverine solute fluxes and by extension, global chemical weathering rates. As such, these limitations may play a prominent role in the regulation of carbon dioxide levels (pCO 2) over geologic timescales by constraining the maximum global weathering flux. In this study, we develop a theoretical scaling relationship between equilibrium solute concentrations and pCO 2 based on equilibrium constants and reaction stoichiometry relating primary mineral dissolution and secondary mineral precipitation. Here, we test this theoretical scaling relationship against reactive transport simulations of chemical weathering profilesmore » under open-and closed-system conditions, representing partially and fully water-saturated regolith, respectively. Under open-system conditions, equilibrium bicarbonate concentrations vary as a power-law function of pCO 2(y =kx n)where nis dependent on reaction stoichiometry and kis dependent on both reaction stoichiometry and the equilibrium constant. Under closed-system conditions, bicarbonate concentrations vary linearly with pCO 2 at low values and approach open-system scaling at high pCO 2. To describe the potential role of thermodynamic limitations in the global silicate weathering feedback, we develop a new mathematical framework to assess weathering feedback strength in terms of both (1) steady-state atmospheric pCO 2 concentrations, and (2) susceptibility to secular changes in degassing rates and transient carbon cycle perturbations, which we term 1st and 2nd order feedback strength, respectively. Finally, we discuss the implications of these results for the effects of vascular land plant evolution on feedback strength, the potential role of vegetation in controlling modern solute fluxes, and the application of these frameworks to a more complete functional description of the silicate weathering feedback. Most notably, the dependence of equilibrium solute concentrations on pCO 2 may represent a direct weathering feedback largely independent of climate and modulated by belowground organic carbon respiration.« less

Relationships between CO 2, thermodynamic limits on silicate weathering, and the strength of the silicate weathering feedback

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Winnick, Matthew J.; Maher, Kate

Recent studies have suggested that thermodynamic limitations on chemical weathering rates exert a first-order control on riverine solute fluxes and by extension, global chemical weathering rates. As such, these limitations may play a prominent role in the regulation of carbon dioxide levels (pCO 2) over geologic timescales by constraining the maximum global weathering flux. In this study, we develop a theoretical scaling relationship between equilibrium solute concentrations and pCO 2 based on equilibrium constants and reaction stoichiometry relating primary mineral dissolution and secondary mineral precipitation. Here, we test this theoretical scaling relationship against reactive transport simulations of chemical weathering profilesmore » under open-and closed-system conditions, representing partially and fully water-saturated regolith, respectively. Under open-system conditions, equilibrium bicarbonate concentrations vary as a power-law function of pCO 2(y =kx n)where nis dependent on reaction stoichiometry and kis dependent on both reaction stoichiometry and the equilibrium constant. Under closed-system conditions, bicarbonate concentrations vary linearly with pCO 2 at low values and approach open-system scaling at high pCO 2. To describe the potential role of thermodynamic limitations in the global silicate weathering feedback, we develop a new mathematical framework to assess weathering feedback strength in terms of both (1) steady-state atmospheric pCO 2 concentrations, and (2) susceptibility to secular changes in degassing rates and transient carbon cycle perturbations, which we term 1st and 2nd order feedback strength, respectively. Finally, we discuss the implications of these results for the effects of vascular land plant evolution on feedback strength, the potential role of vegetation in controlling modern solute fluxes, and the application of these frameworks to a more complete functional description of the silicate weathering feedback. Most notably, the dependence of equilibrium solute concentrations on pCO 2 may represent a direct weathering feedback largely independent of climate and modulated by belowground organic carbon respiration.« less

Relationships between CO2, thermodynamic limits on silicate weathering, and the strength of the silicate weathering feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winnick, Matthew J.; Maher, Kate

2018-03-01

Recent studies have suggested that thermodynamic limitations on chemical weathering rates exert a first-order control on riverine solute fluxes and by extension, global chemical weathering rates. As such, these limitations may play a prominent role in the regulation of carbon dioxide levels (pCO2) over geologic timescales by constraining the maximum global weathering flux. In this study, we develop a theoretical scaling relationship between equilibrium solute concentrations and pCO2 based on equilibrium constants and reaction stoichiometry relating primary mineral dissolution and secondary mineral precipitation. We test this theoretical scaling relationship against reactive transport simulations of chemical weathering profiles under open- and closed-system conditions, representing partially and fully water-saturated regolith, respectively. Under open-system conditions, equilibrium bicarbonate concentrations vary as a power-law function of pCO2 (y = kxn) where n is dependent on reaction stoichiometry and k is dependent on both reaction stoichiometry and the equilibrium constant. Under closed-system conditions, bicarbonate concentrations vary linearly with pCO2 at low values and approach open-system scaling at high pCO2. To describe the potential role of thermodynamic limitations in the global silicate weathering feedback, we develop a new mathematical framework to assess weathering feedback strength in terms of both (1) steady-state atmospheric pCO2 concentrations, and (2) susceptibility to secular changes in degassing rates and transient carbon cycle perturbations, which we term 1st and 2nd order feedback strength, respectively. Finally, we discuss the implications of these results for the effects of vascular land plant evolution on feedback strength, the potential role of vegetation in controlling modern solute fluxes, and the application of these frameworks to a more complete functional description of the silicate weathering feedback. Most notably, the dependence of equilibrium solute concentrations on pCO2 may represent a direct weathering feedback largely independent of climate and modulated by belowground organic carbon respiration.

Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Cycle Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, D.; Chaoka, S.; Kumar, P.; Quijano, J. C.

2012-12-01

Second generation bioenergy crops, such as miscanthus (Miscantus × giganteus) and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), are regarded as clean energy sources, and are an attractive option to mitigate the human-induced climate change. However, the global climate change and the expansion of perennial grass bioenergy crops have the power to alter the biogeochemical cycles in soil, especially, soil carbon storages, over long time scales. In order to develop a predictive understanding, this study develops a coupled hydrological-soil nutrient model to simulate soil carbon responses under different climate scenarios such as: (i) current weather condition, (ii) decreased precipitation by -15%, and (iii) increased temperature up to +3C for four different crops, namely miscanthus, switchgrass, maize, and natural prairie. We use Precision Agricultural Landscape Modeling System (PALMS), version 5.4.0, to capture biophysical and hydrological components coupled with a multilayer carbon and ¬nitrogen cycle model. We apply the model at daily time scale to the Energy Biosciences Institute study site, located in the University of Illinois Research Farms, in Urbana, Illinois. The atmospheric forcing used to run the model was generated stochastically from parameters obtained using available data recorded in Bondville Ameriflux Site. The model simulations are validated with observations of drainage and nitrate and ammonium concentrations recorded in drain tiles during 2011. The results of this study show (1) total soil carbon storage of miscanthus accumulates most noticeably due to the significant amount of aboveground plant carbon, and a relatively high carbon to nitrogen ratio and lignin content, which reduce the litter decomposition rate. Also, (2) the decreased precipitation contributes to the enhancement of total soil carbon storage and soil nitrogen concentration because of the reduced microbial biomass pool. However, (3) an opposite effect on the cycle is introduced by the increased temperature. The simulation results obtained in this study show differences in the soil biogeochemistry induced by the different crops analyzed. Considering the spatial scale at which this crops are cultivated this results suggest there could be important implications in the carbon and nitrogen cycle and indirect feedbacks on climate change. This study also helps us understand the future soil mineral cycle, and ensure a sustainable transition to bioenergy crops.

Measurement of Near-Surface Carbon Dioxide Concentrations with an Open-Path Tunable Diode Laser Sensor and a Non-Dispersive Infrared Sensor at the Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research Site near Fairbanks, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bailey, D. M.; Caine, K. M.; Miller, J. H. H.

2016-12-01

Continuous collection of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations is imperative in understanding seasonal and inter-annual variability of carbon feedbacks above thawing permafrost. Permafrost makes up one-quarter of the Earth's terrestrial surface and has the potential to release twice the amount of carbon than is currently in the atmosphere if global temperatures continue to increase. A collaborative effort with the University of Alaska - Fairbanks, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, and our group at George Washington University is underway to monitor these feedbacks near Fairbanks, Alaska. In June 2016, we deployed an open-path tunable diode laser sensor along with a non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) sensor at the Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research Site as an exploratory study for their use in collecting near-surface CO2 concentrations above thawing permafrost. The open-path instrument (OPI) collected spatially-integrated measurements approximately 1.5 meters above the surface of a young thermokarst bog over a 15-day period whereas the NDIR sensor collected localized measurements 1 meter above the surface for 16 days. Near-continuous measurements were achieved with the NDIR sensor which was limited only by the availability of solar-produced power. The OPI measurements were further limited by maintaining laser alignment under changing environmental conditions. However, the campaign achieved a nearly 80% duty cycle for the entire test period. Here we compare both the localized and spatially-integrated carbon dioxide measurements and their observed diurnal concentration cycles, whose magnitude showed a strong dependence on daily weather at the test site.

Alpine soil carbon is vulnerable to rapid microbial decomposition under climate cooling.

PubMed

Wu, Linwei; Yang, Yunfeng; Wang, Shiping; Yue, Haowei; Lin, Qiaoyan; Hu, Yigang; He, Zhili; Van Nostrand, Joy D; Hale, Lauren; Li, Xiangzhen; Gilbert, Jack A; Zhou, Jizhong

2017-09-01

As climate cooling is increasingly regarded as important natural variability of long-term global warming trends, there is a resurging interest in understanding its impact on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Here, we report a soil transplant experiment from lower to higher elevations in a Tibetan alpine grassland to simulate the impact of cooling on ecosystem community structure and function. Three years of cooling resulted in reduced plant productivity and microbial functional potential (for example, carbon respiration and nutrient cycling). Microbial genetic markers associated with chemically recalcitrant carbon decomposition remained unchanged despite a decrease in genes associated with chemically labile carbon decomposition. As a consequence, cooling-associated changes correlated with a decrease in soil organic carbon (SOC). Extrapolation of these results suggests that for every 1 °C decrease in annual average air temperature, 0.1 Pg (0.3%) of SOC would be lost from the Tibetan plateau. These results demonstrate that microbial feedbacks to cooling have the potential to differentially impact chemically labile and recalcitrant carbon turnover, which could lead to strong, adverse consequences on soil C storage. Our findings are alarming, considering the frequency of short-term cooling and its scale to disrupt ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling.

Issues related to incorporating northern peatlands into global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolking, Steve; Roulet, Nigel; Lawrence, David

Northern peatlands cover ˜3-4 million km2 (˜10% of the land north of 45°N) and contain ˜200-400 Pg carbon (˜10-20% of total global soil carbon), almost entirely as peat (organic soil). Recent developments in global climate models have included incorporation of the terrestrial carbon cycle and representation of several terrestrial ecosystem types and processes in their land surface modules. Peatlands share many general properties with upland, mineral-soil ecosystems, and general ecosystem carbon, water, and energy cycle functions (productivity, decomposition, water infiltration, evapotranspiration, runoff, latent, sensible, and ground heat fluxes). However, northern peatlands also have several unique characteristics that will require some rethinking or revising of land surface algorithms in global climate models. Here we review some of these characteristics, deep organic soils, a significant fraction of bryophyte vegetation, shallow water tables, spatial heterogeneity, anaerobic biogeochemistry, and disturbance regimes, in the context of incorporating them into global climate models. With the incorporation of peatlands, global climate models will be able to simulate the fate of northern peatland carbon under climate change, and estimate the magnitude and strength of any climate system feedbacks associated with the dynamics of this large carbon pool.

Systemic swings in end-Permian environments from Siberian Traps carbon and sulfur outgassing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, B. A.; Neely, R.; Lamarque, J. F.; Elkins-Tanton, L. T.; Kiehl, J. T.; Shields, C. A.; Mills, M. J.; Bardeen, C.

2017-12-01

U-Pb geochronology has revealed that Siberian Traps flood basalt magmatism coincided with the 252 Ma end-Permian mass extinction. Most environmental consequences of magmatism follow directly or indirectly from the release of sulfur and some combination of magmatic and metamorphic carbon to the atmosphere (exceptions include ozone depletion from halogen emissions, release of toxic metals, and enhanced weathering of fresh volcanic rocks). However, the critical combinations of forcing and stress that trigger global mass extinction remain unknown. In particular, the combined and competing effects of sulfur and carbon outgassing on Earth systems remain to be quantified. Here we present results from global climate model simulations of flood basalt outgassing that account for sulfur chemistry and aerosol microphysics. We consider the effects of sulfur and carbon in isolation and in tandem, and find that carbon and sulfur emissions combine to generate swings in climate, ocean circulation, and hydrology. Our simulations provide a self-consistent framework to quantitatively explain observed features of the end-Permian including surface warming, fluctuating ocean oxygenation, intense weathering, and carbon cycle perturbation, unifying observed changes in climate and geochemical cycles with feedbacks initiated by Siberian Traps magmatism.

Where Carbon Goes When Water Flows: Carbon Cycling across the Aquatic Continuum

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ward, Nicholas D.; Bianchi, Thomas S.; Medeiros, Patricia M.

The purpose of this review is to highlight progress in unraveling carbon cycling dynamics across the continuum of landscapes, inland waters, coastal oceans, and the atmosphere. Earth systems are intimately interconnected, yet most biogeochemical studies focus on specific components in isolation. The movement of water drives the carbon cycle, and, as such, inland waters provide a critical intersection between terrestrial and marine biospheres. Inland, estuarine, and coastal waters are well studied in regions near centers of human population in the Northern hemisphere. However, many of the world’s large river systems and their marine receiving waters remain poorly characterized, particularly inmore » the tropics, which contribute to a disproportionately large fraction of the transformation of terrestrial organic matter to carbon dioxide, and the Arctic, where positive feedback mechanisms are likely to amplify global climate change. There are large gaps in current coverage of environmental observations along the aquatic continuum. For example, tidally-influenced reaches of major rivers and near-shore coastal regions around river plumes are often left out of carbon budgets due to a combination of methodological constraints and poor data coverage. We suggest that closing these gaps could potentially alter global estimates of CO2 outgassing from surface waters to the atmosphere by several-fold. Finally, in order to identify and constrain/embrace uncertainties in global carbon budget estimations it is important that we further adopt statistical and modeling approaches that have become well-established in the fields of oceanography and paleoclimatology, for example.« less

How can mountaintop CO 2 observations be used to constrain regional carbon fluxes?

DOE PAGES

Lin, John C.; Mallia, Derek V.; Wu, Dien; ...

2017-05-03

Despite the need for researchers to understand terrestrial biospheric carbon fluxes to account for carbon cycle feedbacks and predict future CO 2 concentrations, knowledge of these fluxes at the regional scale remains poor. This is particularly true in mountainous areas, where complex meteorology and lack of observations lead to large uncertainties in carbon fluxes. Yet mountainous regions are often where significant forest cover and biomass are found – i.e., areas that have the potential to serve as carbon sinks. As CO 2 observations are carried out in mountainous areas, it is imperative that they are properly interpreted to yield informationmore » about carbon fluxes. In this paper, we present CO 2 observations at three sites in the mountains of the western US, along with atmospheric simulations that attempt to extract information about biospheric carbon fluxes from the CO 2 observations, with emphasis on the observed and simulated diurnal cycles of CO 2. We show that atmospheric models can systematically simulate the wrong diurnal cycle and significantly misinterpret the CO 2 observations, due to erroneous atmospheric flows as a result of terrain that is misrepresented in the model. This problem depends on the selected vertical level in the model and is exacerbated as the spatial resolution is degraded, and our results indicate that a fine grid spacing of ~4 km or less may be needed to simulate a realistic diurnal cycle of CO 2 for sites on top of the steep mountains examined here in the American Rockies. In conclusion, in the absence of higher resolution models, we recommend coarse-scale models to focus on assimilating afternoon CO 2 observations on mountaintop sites over the continent to avoid misrepresentations of nocturnal transport and influence.« less

How can mountaintop CO2 observations be used to constrain regional carbon fluxes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, John C.; Mallia, Derek V.; Wu, Dien; Stephens, Britton B.

2017-05-01

Despite the need for researchers to understand terrestrial biospheric carbon fluxes to account for carbon cycle feedbacks and predict future CO2 concentrations, knowledge of these fluxes at the regional scale remains poor. This is particularly true in mountainous areas, where complex meteorology and lack of observations lead to large uncertainties in carbon fluxes. Yet mountainous regions are often where significant forest cover and biomass are found - i.e., areas that have the potential to serve as carbon sinks. As CO2 observations are carried out in mountainous areas, it is imperative that they are properly interpreted to yield information about carbon fluxes. In this paper, we present CO2 observations at three sites in the mountains of the western US, along with atmospheric simulations that attempt to extract information about biospheric carbon fluxes from the CO2 observations, with emphasis on the observed and simulated diurnal cycles of CO2. We show that atmospheric models can systematically simulate the wrong diurnal cycle and significantly misinterpret the CO2 observations, due to erroneous atmospheric flows as a result of terrain that is misrepresented in the model. This problem depends on the selected vertical level in the model and is exacerbated as the spatial resolution is degraded, and our results indicate that a fine grid spacing of ˜ 4 km or less may be needed to simulate a realistic diurnal cycle of CO2 for sites on top of the steep mountains examined here in the American Rockies. In the absence of higher resolution models, we recommend coarse-scale models to focus on assimilating afternoon CO2 observations on mountaintop sites over the continent to avoid misrepresentations of nocturnal transport and influence.

Warming, euxinia and sea level rise during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum on the Gulf Coastal Plain: implications for ocean oxygenation and nutrient cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sluijs, A.; van Roij, L.; Harrington, G. J.; Schouten, S.; Sessa, J. A.; LeVay, L. J.; Reichart, G.-J.; Slomp, C. P.

2014-07-01

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~ 56 Ma) was a ~ 200 kyr episode of global warming, associated with massive injections of 13C-depleted carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system. Although climate change during the PETM is relatively well constrained, effects on marine oxygen concentrations and nutrient cycling remain largely unclear. We identify the PETM in a sediment core from the US margin of the Gulf of Mexico. Biomarker-based paleotemperature proxies (methylation of branched tetraether-cyclization of branched tetraether (MBT-CBT) and TEX86) indicate that continental air and sea surface temperatures warmed from 27-29 to ~ 35 °C, although variations in the relative abundances of terrestrial and marine biomarkers may have influenced these estimates. Vegetation changes, as recorded from pollen assemblages, support this warming. The PETM is bracketed by two unconformities. It overlies Paleocene silt- and mudstones and is rich in angular (thus in situ produced; autochthonous) glauconite grains, which indicate sedimentary condensation. A drop in the relative abundance of terrestrial organic matter and changes in the dinoflagellate cyst assemblages suggest that rising sea level shifted the deposition of terrigenous material landward. This is consistent with previous findings of eustatic sea level rise during the PETM. Regionally, the attribution of the glauconite-rich unit to the PETM implicates the dating of a primate fossil, argued to represent the oldest North American specimen on record. The biomarker isorenieratene within the PETM indicates that euxinic photic zone conditions developed, likely seasonally, along the Gulf Coastal Plain. A global data compilation indicates that O2 concentrations dropped in all ocean basins in response to warming, hydrological change, and carbon cycle feedbacks. This culminated in (seasonal) anoxia along many continental margins, analogous to modern trends. Seafloor deoxygenation and widespread (seasonal) anoxia likely caused phosphorus regeneration from suboxic and anoxic sediments. We argue that this fueled shelf eutrophication, as widely recorded from microfossil studies, increasing organic carbon burial along many continental margins as a negative feedback to carbon input and global warming. If properly quantified with future work, the PETM offers the opportunity to assess the biogeochemical effects of enhanced phosphorus regeneration, as well as the timescales on which this feedback operates in view of modern and future ocean deoxygenation.

Modelling carbon cycle in boreal wetlands with the Earth System Model ECHAM6/MPIOM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getzieh, Robert J.; Brovkin, Victor; Kleinen, Thomas; Raivonen, Maarit; Sevanto, Sanna

2010-05-01

Wetlands of the northern high latitudes provide excellent conditions for peat accumulation and methanogenesis. High moisture and low O2 content in the soils lead to effective preservation of soil organic matter and methane emissions. Boreal Wetlands contain about 450 PgC and currently constitute a significant natural source of methane (CH4) even though they cover only 3% of the global land surface. While storing carbon and removing CO2 from the atmosphere, boreal wetlands have contributed to global cooling on millennial timescales. Undisturbed boreal wetlands are likely to continue functioning as a net carbon sink. On the other hand these carbon pools might be destabilised in future since they are sensitive to climate change. Given that processes of peat accumulation and decay are closely dependent on hydrology and temperature, this balance may be altered significantly in the future. As a result, northern wetlands could have a large impact on carbon cycle-climate feedback mechanisms and therefore play an important role in global carbon cycle dynamics. However global biogeochemistry models used for simulations of CO2 dynamics in past and future climates usually neglect carbon cycle in wetlands. We investigate the potential for positive or negative feedbacks to the climate system through fluxes of greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4) with the general circulation model ECHAM6/MPIOM. A generic model of peat accumulation and decay has been developed and implemented into the land surface module JSBACH. We consider anaerobic biogeochemical processes which lead to formation of thick organic soils. Furthermore we consider specific wetland plant functional types (PFTs) in our model such as vascular plants (sedges) which impact methane transport and oxidation processes and non vascular plants (sphagnum mosses) which are promoting peat growth. As prototypes we use the modelling approaches by Frolking et al. (2001) as well as Walter & Heimann (2001) for the peat dynamics, and the wetland model by Wania (2008) for vegetation cover and methane emissions. An initial distribution of wetlands follows the GLWD-3 map by Lehner and Döll (2004). A dynamical wetlands hydrology scheme (T. Stacke) and a methane transport and emission model (M. Raivonen) are at the moment also under development at the MPI for Meteorology respectively in close cooperation with the University of Helsinki. First results of our modelling approach will be presented. REFERENCES S. Frolking et al., Ecosystems 4, 479-498 (2001). B. Lehner et al., Journal of Hydrology 296, 1-22 (2004). B. P. Walter et al., J. Geophys. Res. 106, D24, 34189-34206 and 34207-34219 (2001). R. Wania et al., Global Biogeochem. Cycles 23, GB3014 and GB3015 (2009).

State of the Carbon Cycle - Consequences of Rising Atmospheric CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, D. J.; Cooley, S. R.; Alin, S. R.; Brown, M. E.; Butman, D. E.; French, N. H. F.; Johnson, Z. I.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Lohrenz, S. E.; Ocko, I.; Shadwick, E. H.; Sutton, A. J.; Potter, C. S.; Yu, R. M. S.

2016-12-01

The rise of atmospheric CO2, largely attributable to human activity through fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, has been dampened by carbon uptake by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere. We outline the consequences of this carbon uptake as direct and indirect effects on terrestrial and oceanic systems and processes for different regions of North America and the globe. We assess the capacity of these systems to continue to act as carbon sinks. Rising CO2 has decreased seawater pH; this process of ocean acidification has impacted some marine species and altered fundamental ecosystem processes with further effects likely. In terrestrial ecosystems, increased atmospheric CO2 causes enhanced photosynthesis, net primary production, and increased water-use efficiency. Rising CO2 may change vegetation composition and carbon storage, and widespread increases in water use efficiency likely influence terrestrial hydrology and biogeochemical cycling. Consequences for human populations include changes to ecosystem services including cultural activities surrounding land use, agricultural or harvesting practices. Commercial fish stocks have been impacted and crop production yields have been changed as a result of rising CO2. Ocean and terrestrial effects are contingent on, and feedback to, global climate change. Warming and modified precipitation regimes impact a variety of ecosystem processes, and the combination of climate change and rising CO2 contributes considerable uncertainty to forecasting carbon sink capacity in the ocean and on land. Disturbance regime (fire and insects) are modified with increased temperatures. Fire frequency and intensity increase, and insect lifecycles are disrupted as temperatures move out of historical norms. Changes in disturbance patterns modulate the effects of rising CO2 depending on ecosystem type, disturbance frequency, and magnitude of events. We discuss management strategies designed to limit the rise of atmospheric CO2 and reduce uncertainty in forecasts of decadal and centennial feedbacks of rising atmospheric CO2 on carbon storage.

State of the Carbon Cycle - Consequences of Rising Atmospheric CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, David J.; Cooley, Sarah R.; Alin, Simone R.; Brown, Molly; Butman, David E.; French, Nancy H. F.; Johnson, Zackary I.; Keppel-Aleks; Lohrenz, Steven E.; Ocko, Ilissa;

Permafrost collapse alters soil carbon stocks, respiration, CH4 , and N2O in upland tundra.

PubMed

Abbott, Benjamin W; Jones, Jeremy B

2015-12-01

Release of greenhouse gases from thawing permafrost is potentially the largest terrestrial feedback to climate change and one of the most likely to occur; however, estimates of its strength vary by a factor of thirty. Some of this uncertainty stems from abrupt thaw processes known as thermokarst (permafrost collapse due to ground ice melt), which alter controls on carbon and nitrogen cycling and expose organic matter from meters below the surface. Thermokarst may affect 20-50% of tundra uplands by the end of the century; however, little is known about the effect of different thermokarst morphologies on carbon and nitrogen release. We measured soil organic matter displacement, ecosystem respiration, and soil gas concentrations at 26 upland thermokarst features on the North Slope of Alaska. Features included the three most common upland thermokarst morphologies: active-layer detachment slides, thermo-erosion gullies, and retrogressive thaw slumps. We found that thermokarst morphology interacted with landscape parameters to determine both the initial displacement of organic matter and subsequent carbon and nitrogen cycling. The large proportion of ecosystem carbon exported off-site by slumps and slides resulted in decreased ecosystem respiration postfailure, while gullies removed a smaller portion of ecosystem carbon but strongly increased respiration and N2 O concentration. Elevated N2 O in gully soils persisted through most of the growing season, indicating sustained nitrification and denitrification in disturbed soils, representing a potential noncarbon permafrost climate feedback. While upland thermokarst formation did not substantially alter redox conditions within features, it redistributed organic matter into both oxic and anoxic environments. Across morphologies, residual organic matter cover, and predisturbance respiration explained 83% of the variation in respiration response. Consistent differences between upland thermokarst types may contribute to the incorporation of this nonlinear process into projections of carbon and nitrogen release from degrading permafrost. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Very large release of mostly volcanic carbon during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutjahr, Marcus; Ridgwell, Andy; Sexton, Philip F.; Anagnostou, Eleni; Pearson, Paul N.; Pälike, Heiko; Norris, Richard D.; Thomas, Ellen; Foster, Gavin L.

2017-08-01

The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was a global warming event that occurred about 56 million years ago, and is commonly thought to have been driven primarily by the destabilization of carbon from surface sedimentary reservoirs such as methane hydrates. However, it remains controversial whether such reservoirs were indeed the source of the carbon that drove the warming. Resolving this issue is key to understanding the proximal cause of the warming, and to quantifying the roles of triggers versus feedbacks. Here we present boron isotope data—a proxy for seawater pH—that show that the ocean surface pH was persistently low during the PETM. We combine our pH data with a paired carbon isotope record in an Earth system model in order to reconstruct the unfolding carbon-cycle dynamics during the event. We find strong evidence for a much larger (more than 10,000 petagrams)—and, on average, isotopically heavier—carbon source than considered previously. This leads us to identify volcanism associated with the North Atlantic Igneous Province, rather than carbon from a surface reservoir, as the main driver of the PETM. This finding implies that climate-driven amplification of organic carbon feedbacks probably played only a minor part in driving the event. However, we find that enhanced burial of organic matter seems to have been important in eventually sequestering the released carbon and accelerating the recovery of the Earth system.

Fire feedbacks over geological time and the evolution of atmospheric oxygen concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, B.; Belcher, C.; Lenton, T. M.

2017-12-01

During the 4.5 billion year history of the Earth, the concentration of oxygen in the atmosphere has risen from trace levels to today's 21%. Yet over the last 400 million years, O2 concentration appears to have remained within a relatively narrow range (around 15% - 30%), despite dramatic changes in the nature of global biogeochemical cycling. This stability has been crucial for continued animal evolution, and is thought to have arisen through feedbacks between oxygen, wildfire and plant productivity: the strong oxygen- dependence of fire initiation and spread means that global photosynthetic primary productivity is suppressed when oxygen levels are high, and enhanced when levels are low. We present biogeochemical modelling of the long term carbon and oxygen cycles, which aims to capture the operation of the wildfire feedback alongside other key processes. We find that wildfire can effectively stabilize long term oxygen concentrations, but that the nature of this feedback has changed as plant evolution has provided different fuels. Specifically, the evolution of early angiosperms during the Cretaceous period provided new understory fuels that more easily facilitated crown and canopy fires. Adding these dynamics to our model produces a more stable system over long timescales, and the model predicts that oxygen concentration has declined towards the present day - a prediction that is supported by other independent estimates.

Whole Planet Coupling from Climate to Core: Implications for the Evolution of Rocky Planets and their Prospects for Habitability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foley, B. J.; Driscoll, P. E.

2015-12-01

Many factors have conspired to make Earth a home to complex life. Earth has abundant water due to a combination of factors, including orbital distance and the climate regulating feedbacks of the long-term carbon cycle. Earth has plate tectonics, which is crucial for maintaining long-term carbon cycling and may have been an important energy source for the origin of life in seafloor hydrothermal systems. Earth also has a strong magnetic field that shields the atmosphere from the solar wind and the surface from high-energy particles. Synthesizing recent work on these topics shows that water, a temperate climate, plate tectonics, and a strong magnetic field are linked together through a series of negative feedbacks that stabilize the system over geologic timescales. Although the physical mechanism behind plate tectonics on Earth is still poorly understood, climate is thought to be important. In particular, temperate surface temperatures are likely necessary for plate tectonics because they allow for liquid water that may be capable of significantly lowering lithospheric strength, increase convective stresses in the lithosphere, and enhance the effectiveness of "damage" processes such as grainsize reduction. Likewise, plate tectonics is probably crucial for maintaining a temperate climate on Earth through its role in facilitating the long-term carbon cycle, which regulates atmospheric CO2 levels. Therefore, the coupling between plate tectonics and climate is a feedback that is likely of first order importance for the evolution of rocky planets. Finally, plate tectonics is thought to be important for driving the geodynamo. Plate tectonics efficiently cools the mantle, leading to vigorous thermo-chemical convection in the outer core and dynamo action; without plate tectonics inefficient mantle cooling beneath a stagnant lid may prevent a long-lived magnetic field. As the magnetic field shields a planet's atmosphere from the solar wind, the magnetic field may be important for preserving hydrogen, and therefore water, on the surface. Thus whole planet coupling between the magnetic field, atmosphere, mantle, and core is possible. We lay out the basic physics governing whole planet coupling, and discuss the implications this coupling has for the evolution of rocky planets and their prospects for hosting life.

Detecting regional patterns of changing CO2 flux in Alaska

PubMed Central

Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Wofsy, Steven C.; Koven, Charles D.; Sweeney, Colm; Lawrence, David M.; Lindaas, Jakob; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Miller, Charles E.

2016-01-01

With rapid changes in climate and the seasonal amplitude of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Arctic, it is critical that we detect and quantify the underlying processes controlling the changing amplitude of CO2 to better predict carbon cycle feedbacks in the Arctic climate system. We use satellite and airborne observations of atmospheric CO2 with climatically forced CO2 flux simulations to assess the detectability of Alaskan carbon cycle signals as future warming evolves. We find that current satellite remote sensing technologies can detect changing uptake accurately during the growing season but lack sufficient cold season coverage and near-surface sensitivity to constrain annual carbon balance changes at regional scale. Airborne strategies that target regular vertical profile measurements within continental interiors are more sensitive to regional flux deeper into the cold season but currently lack sufficient spatial coverage throughout the entire cold season. Thus, the current CO2 observing network is unlikely to detect potentially large CO2 sources associated with deep permafrost thaw and cold season respiration expected over the next 50 y. Although continuity of current observations is vital, strategies and technologies focused on cold season measurements (active remote sensing, aircraft, and tall towers) and systematic sampling of vertical profiles across continental interiors over the full annual cycle are required to detect the onset of carbon release from thawing permafrost. PMID:27354511

Detecting regional patterns of changing CO 2 flux in Alaska

DOE PAGES

Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Commane, Roisin; Wofsy, Steven C.; ...

2016-06-27

With rapid changes in climate and the seasonal amplitude of carbon dioxide (CO 2) in the Arctic, it is critical that we detect and quantify the underlying processes controlling the changing amplitude of CO 2 to better predict carbon cycle feedbacks in the Arctic climate system. We use satellite and airborne observations of atmospheric CO 2 with climatically forced CO 2 flux simulations to assess the detectability of Alaskan carbon cycle signals as future warming evolves. We find that current satellite remote sensing technologies can detect changing uptake accurately during the growing season but lack sufficient cold season coverage andmore » near-surface sensitivity to constrain annual carbon balance changes at regional scale. Airborne strategies that target regular vertical profile measurements within continental interiors are more sensitive to regional flux deeper into the cold season but currently lack sufficient spatial coverage throughout the entire cold season. Thus, the current CO 2 observing network is unlikely to detect potentially large CO 2 sources associated with deep permafrost thaw and cold season respiration expected over the next 50 y. In conclusion, although continuity of current observations is vital, strategies and technologies focused on cold season measurements (active remote sensing, aircraft, and tall towers) and systematic sampling of vertical profiles across continental interiors over the full annual cycle are required to detect the onset of carbon release from thawing permafrost.« less

Canopy nitrogen, carbon assimilation, and albedo in temperate and boreal forests: Functional relations and potential climate feedbacks.

PubMed

Ollinger, S V; Richardson, A D; Martin, M E; Hollinger, D Y; Frolking, S E; Reich, P B; Plourde, L C; Katul, G G; Munger, J W; Oren, R; Smith, M-L; Paw U, K T; Bolstad, P V; Cook, B D; Day, M C; Martin, T A; Monson, R K; Schmid, H P

2008-12-09

The availability of nitrogen represents a key constraint on carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, and it is largely in this capacity that the role of N in the Earth's climate system has been considered. Despite this, few studies have included continuous variation in plant N status as a driver of broad-scale carbon cycle analyses. This is partly because of uncertainties in how leaf-level physiological relationships scale to whole ecosystems and because methods for regional to continental detection of plant N concentrations have yet to be developed. Here, we show that ecosystem CO(2) uptake capacity in temperate and boreal forests scales directly with whole-canopy N concentrations, mirroring a leaf-level trend that has been observed for woody plants worldwide. We further show that both CO(2) uptake capacity and canopy N concentration are strongly and positively correlated with shortwave surface albedo. These results suggest that N plays an additional, and overlooked, role in the climate system via its influence on vegetation reflectivity and shortwave surface energy exchange. We also demonstrate that much of the spatial variation in canopy N can be detected by using broad-band satellite sensors, offering a means through which these findings can be applied toward improved application of coupled carbon cycle-climate models.

Ocean acidification compromises a planktic calcifier with implications for global carbon cycling.

PubMed

Davis, Catherine V; Rivest, Emily B; Hill, Tessa M; Gaylord, Brian; Russell, Ann D; Sanford, Eric

2017-05-22

Anthropogenically-forced changes in ocean chemistry at both the global and regional scale have the potential to negatively impact calcifying plankton, which play a key role in ecosystem functioning and marine carbon cycling. We cultured a globally important calcifying marine plankter (the foraminifer, Globigerina bulloides) under an ecologically relevant range of seawater pH (7.5 to 8.3 total scale). Multiple metrics of calcification and physiological performance varied with pH. At pH > 8.0, increased calcification occurred without a concomitant rise in respiration rates. However, as pH declined from 8.0 to 7.5, calcification and oxygen consumption both decreased, suggesting a reduced ability to precipitate shell material accompanied by metabolic depression. Repair of spines, important for both buoyancy and feeding, was also reduced at pH < 7.7. The dependence of calcification, respiration, and spine repair on seawater pH suggests that foraminifera will likely be challenged by future ocean conditions. Furthermore, the nature of these effects has the potential to actuate changes in vertical transport of organic and inorganic carbon, perturbing feedbacks to regional and global marine carbon cycling. The biological impacts of seawater pH have additional, important implications for the use of foraminifera as paleoceanographic indicators.

Coupling of carbon and silicon geochemical cycles in rivers and lakes

PubMed Central

Wang, Baoli; Liu, Cong-Qiang; Maberly, Stephen C.; Wang, Fushun; Hartmann, Jens

2016-01-01

Carbon (C) and silicon (Si) biogeochemical cycles are important factors in the regulation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and hence climate change. Theoretically, these elements are linked by chemical weathering and organism stoichiometry, but this coupling has not been investigated in freshwaters. Here we compiled data from global rivers and lakes in the United States of America and the United Kingdom, in order to characterize the stoichiometry between the biogeochemical cycles of C and Si. In rivers this coupling is confirmed by a significant relationship between HCO3−/Na+ and DSi/Na+, and DSi:HCO3− ratio can reflect the mineral source of chemical weathering. In lakes, however, these characteristic ratios of chemical weathering are altered by algal activity. The lacustrine Si:C atomic ratio is negative feedback regulation by phytoplankton, which may result in this ratio in algal assemblages similar to that in water column. And this regulation suggests lacustrine photosynthetic C fixation in this equilibrium state is quantitative and depends on the DSi concentration. These findings provide new insights into the role of freshwaters in global C and Si biogeochemical cycles. PMID:27775007

Tropical forests and the changing earth system.

PubMed

Lewis, Simon L

2006-01-29

Tropical forests are global epicentres of biodiversity and important modulators of the rate of climate change. Recent research on deforestation rates and ecological changes within intact forests, both areas of recent research and debate, are reviewed, and the implications for biodiversity (species loss) and climate change (via the global carbon cycle) addressed. Recent impacts have most likely been: (i) a large source of carbon to the atmosphere, and major loss of species, from deforestation and (ii) a large carbon sink within remaining intact forest, accompanied by accelerating forest dynamism and widespread biodiversity changes. Finally, I look to the future, suggesting that the current carbon sink in intact forests is unlikely to continue, and that the tropical forest biome may even become a large net source of carbon, via one or more of four plausible routes: changing photosynthesis and respiration rates, biodiversity changes in intact forest, widespread forest collapse via drought, and widespread forest collapse via fire. Each of these scenarios risks potentially dangerous positive feedbacks with the climate system that could dramatically accelerate and intensify climate change. Given that continued land-use change alone is already thought to be causing the sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history, should such feedbacks occur, the resulting biodiversity and societal consequences would be even more severe.

Distribution and landscape controls of organic layer thickness and carbon within the Alaskan Yukon River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pastick, Neal J.; Rigge, Matthew B.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Jorgenson, M. Torre; Rose, Joshua R.; Johnson, Kristofer D.; Ji, Lei

2014-01-01

Understanding of the organic layer thickness (OLT) and organic layer carbon (OLC) stocks in subarctic ecosystems is critical due to their importance in the global carbon cycle. Moreover, post-fire OLT provides an indicator of long-term successional trajectories and permafrost susceptibility to thaw. To these ends, we 1) mapped OLT and associated uncertainty at 30 m resolution in the Yukon River Basin (YRB), Alaska, employing decision tree models linking remotely sensed imagery with field and ancillary data, 2) converted OLT to OLC using a non-linear regression, 3) evaluate landscape controls on OLT and OLC, and 4) quantified the post-fire recovery of OLT and OLC. Areas of shallow (2 = 0.68; OLC: R2 = 0.66), where an average of 16 cm OLT and 5.3 kg/m2 OLC were consumed by fires. Strong predictors of OLT included climate, topography, near-surface permafrost distributions, soil wetness, and spectral information. Our modeling approach enabled us to produce regional maps of OLT and OLC, which will be useful in understanding risks and feedbacks associated with fires and climate feedbacks.

Carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matear, Richard J.; Lenton, Andrew

2018-03-01

Carbon-climate feedbacks have the potential to significantly impact the future climate by altering atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Zaehle et al. 2010). By modifying the future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the carbon-climate feedbacks will also influence the future ocean acidification trajectory. Here, we use the CO2 emissions scenarios from four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) with an Earth system model to project the future trajectories of ocean acidification with the inclusion of carbon-climate feedbacks. We show that simulated carbon-climate feedbacks can significantly impact the onset of undersaturated aragonite conditions in the Southern and Arctic oceans, the suitable habitat for tropical coral and the deepwater saturation states. Under the high-emissions scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP6), the carbon-climate feedbacks advance the onset of surface water under saturation and the decline in suitable coral reef habitat by a decade or more. The impacts of the carbon-climate feedbacks are most significant for the medium- (RCP4.5) and low-emissions (RCP2.6) scenarios. For the RCP4.5 scenario, by 2100 the carbon-climate feedbacks nearly double the area of surface water undersaturated with respect to aragonite and reduce by 50 % the surface water suitable for coral reefs. For the RCP2.6 scenario, by 2100 the carbon-climate feedbacks reduce the area suitable for coral reefs by 40 % and increase the area of undersaturated surface water by 20 %. The sensitivity of ocean acidification to the carbon-climate feedbacks in the low to medium emission scenarios is important because recent CO2 emission reduction commitments are trying to transition emissions to such a scenario. Our study highlights the need to better characterise the carbon-climate feedbacks and ensure we do not underestimate the projected ocean acidification.

Toward coordinated space-based air quality, carbon cycle, and ecosystem measurements to quantify air quality-ecosystem interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neu, J. L.; Schimel, D.; Lerdau, M.; Drewry, D.; Fu, D.; Payne, V.; Bowman, K. W.; Worden, J. R.

2016-12-01

Tropospheric ozone concentrations are increasing in many regions of the world, and this ozone can severely damage vegetation. Ozone enters plants through their stomata and oxidizes tissues, inhibiting physiology and decreasing ecosystem productivity. Ozone has been experimentally shown to reduce crop production, with important implications for global food security as concentrations rise. Ozone damage to forests also alters productivity and carbon storage and may drive changes in species distributions and biodiversity. Process-based quantitative estimates of these ozone impacts on terrestrial ecosystems at continental to global scales as well as of feedbacks to air quality via production of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are thus crucial to sustainable development planning. We demonstrate that leveraging planned and proposed missions to measure ozone, formaldehyde, and isoprene along with solar-induced fluorescence (SiF), evapotranspiration, and plant nitrogen content can meet the requirements of an integrated observing system for air quality-ecosystem interactions while also meeting the needs of the individual Air Quality, Carbon Cycle, and Ecosystems communities.

A case of the tail wagging the dog? Reverse weathering and Earth's CO2 thermostat.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higgins, J. A.

2017-12-01

Feedbacks between climate, the global carbon cycle, and the chemistry of seawater stabilize Earth's surface temperature on geologic timescales and are likely responsible for its habitability over billions of years of Earth history. The most important component of the geologic carbon cycle is the precipitation and burial of carbonate sediments. The amount of carbonate sediment produced depends, in turn, on the alkalinity generated during silicate weathering less the amount consumed during the formation of secondary clay minerals both on the continents and in the ocean. In marine enviroments this process, often referred to as reverse weathering, consumes seawater alkalinity (and cations) via reaction with degraded Al-silicate minerals. Because these reactions constitute a sink of seawater alkalinity, changes in the amount of reverse weathering will lead to imbalances between alkalinity sources and sinks. The net effect is that on timescales greater than the timescale of carbonate compensation (< 10 kyr), changes in reverse weathering will lead to changes in the rate of continental silicate weathering through the dependence of continental silicate weathering on atmospheric CO2 and climate. This mechanism is capable of changing rates of continental silicate weathering without changing either the rate of volcanic outgassing or the rate constant for continental silicate weathering (i.e. through mountain-building or the exposure of different rock types) and as a result represents a unique way of modulating the global carbon cycle and Earth's climate on geologic timescales.

Ecosystem Model Performance at Wetlands: Results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulman, B. N.; Desai, A. R.; Schroeder, N. M.; NACP Site Synthesis Participants

2011-12-01

Northern peatlands contain a significant fraction of the global carbon pool, and their responses to hydrological change are likely to be important factors in future carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Global-scale carbon cycle modeling studies typically use general ecosystem models with coarse spatial resolution, often without peatland-specific processes. Here, seven ecosystem models were used to simulate CO2 fluxes at three field sites in Canada and the northern United States, including two nutrient-rich fens and one nutrient-poor, sphagnum-dominated bog, from 2002-2006. Flux residuals (simulated - observed) were positively correlated with measured water table for both gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) at the two fen sites for all models, and were positively correlated with water table at the bog site for the majority of models. Modeled diurnal cycles at fen sites agreed well with eddy covariance measurements overall. Eddy covariance GEP and ER were higher during dry periods than during wet periods, while model results predicted either the opposite relationship or no significant difference. At the bog site, eddy covariance GEP had no significant dependence on water table, while models predicted higher GEP during wet periods. All models significantly over-estimated GEP at the bog site, and all but one over-estimated ER at the bog site. Carbon cycle models in peatland-rich regions could be improved by incorporating better models or measurements of hydrology and by inhibiting GEP and ER rates under saturated conditions. Bogs and fens likely require distinct treatments in ecosystem models due to differences in nutrients, peat properties, and plant communities.

Dryland feedbacks to climatic change: Results from a climate manipulation experiment on the Colorado Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, S.; Belnap, J.; Ferrenberg, S.; Wertin, T. M.; Darrouzet-Nardi, A.; Tucker, C.; Rutherford, W. A.

2015-12-01

Arid and semiarid ecosystems cover ~40% of Earth's terrestrial surface and make up ~35% of the U.S., yet we know surprisingly little about how climate change will affect these widespread landscapes. Like many dryland regions, the Colorado Plateau in the southwestern U.S. is predicted to experience climate change as elevated temperature and altered timing and amount of annual precipitation. We are using a long-term (>10 yr) factorial warming and supplemental rainfall experiment on the Colorado Plateau to explore how predicted changes in climate will affect vascular plant and biological soil crust community composition, biogeochemical cycling, and energy balance (biocrusts are a surface soil community of moss, lichen, and cyanobacteria that can make up as much as 70% of the living cover in drylands). While some of the responses we have observed were expected, many of the results are surprising. For example, we documented biocrust community composition shifts in response to altered climate that were significantly faster and more dramatic than considered likely for these soil communities that typically change over decadal and centennial timescales. Further, while we continue to observe important climate change effects on carbon cycling - including reduced net photosynthesis in vascular plants, increased CO2 losses from biocrust soils during some seasons, and changes to the interactions between water and carbon cycles - we have also found marked treatment effects on the albedo and spectral signatures of dryland soils. In addition to demonstrating the effects of these treatments, the strong relationships we observed in our experiments between biota and climate provide a quantitative framework for improving our representation of dryland responses to climate change. In this talk we will cover a range of datasets that, taken together, show: (1) large climate-driven changes to dryland biogeochemical cycling may be the result of both effects on existing communities, as well of relatively rapid shifts in community composition; (2) drylands could provide feedbacks to future climate not only though altered carbon cycling but also via changes to surface albedo; and (3) models of dryland responses to climate change may need significant revision, but such a revision is well within reach.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, John C.; Mallia, Derek V.; Wu, Dien

Despite the need for researchers to understand terrestrial biospheric carbon fluxes to account for carbon cycle feedbacks and predict future CO 2 concentrations, knowledge of these fluxes at the regional scale remains poor. This is particularly true in mountainous areas, where complex meteorology and lack of observations lead to large uncertainties in carbon fluxes. Yet mountainous regions are often where significant forest cover and biomass are found – i.e., areas that have the potential to serve as carbon sinks. As CO 2 observations are carried out in mountainous areas, it is imperative that they are properly interpreted to yield informationmore » about carbon fluxes. In this paper, we present CO 2 observations at three sites in the mountains of the western US, along with atmospheric simulations that attempt to extract information about biospheric carbon fluxes from the CO 2 observations, with emphasis on the observed and simulated diurnal cycles of CO 2. We show that atmospheric models can systematically simulate the wrong diurnal cycle and significantly misinterpret the CO 2 observations, due to erroneous atmospheric flows as a result of terrain that is misrepresented in the model. This problem depends on the selected vertical level in the model and is exacerbated as the spatial resolution is degraded, and our results indicate that a fine grid spacing of ~4 km or less may be needed to simulate a realistic diurnal cycle of CO 2 for sites on top of the steep mountains examined here in the American Rockies. In conclusion, in the absence of higher resolution models, we recommend coarse-scale models to focus on assimilating afternoon CO 2 observations on mountaintop sites over the continent to avoid misrepresentations of nocturnal transport and influence.« less

The Economics of Carbon Dioxide Removal: The Case against Free Disposal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, D. P.; Rickels, W.; Quaas, M.; Oschlies, A.; Reith, F.

2016-12-01

Facing the challenge to keep the average global temperature increase below 2°C and to limit long-term climate change, removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (Carbon Dioxide Removal, CDR) and disposing of it in non-atmospheric carbon reservoirs is becoming increasingly necessary. The social cost of removing carbon into the terrestrial biosphere (e.g. by afforestation) or the ocean (e.g. by spreading olivine in coastal areas) arises from carbon-cycle feedbacks and saturation effects. Yet they are ignored in existing economic studies on CDR. Neglecting non-atmospheric social cost results in inconsistent estimates with regard to the share and timing of CDR measures in climate policy. Here, we use an intermediate-complexity earth system model, the University of Victoria (UVic) model, to calibrate a dynamic economic model, capturing the temperature feedback and saturation effect of terrestrial carbon uptake and the saturation effect of oceanic carbon uptake to obtain an improved understanding of the net social carbon value of terrestrial and oceanic CDR. We show that planning horizons beyond the year 2100 are required to properly reflect long-term scarcity issues of non-atmospheric carbon reservoirs in current carbon prices and that neglecting non-atmospheric social cost results in too low abatement efforts and in turn in too large and earlier application of CDR measures than if applied optimally. The figure shows the carbon prices for the different carbon reservoirs in the year 2100 in dependence of the planning horizon (for a climate policy aiming to limit global mean temperature increase to 2°C). The difference between the atmospheric and the non-atmospheric carbon prices indicates the benefits of the different CDR options.

Drought sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest.

PubMed

Phillips, Oliver L; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Lewis, Simon L; Fisher, Joshua B; Lloyd, Jon; López-González, Gabriela; Malhi, Yadvinder; Monteagudo, Abel; Peacock, Julie; Quesada, Carlos A; van der Heijden, Geertje; Almeida, Samuel; Amaral, Iêda; Arroyo, Luzmila; Aymard, Gerardo; Baker, Tim R; Bánki, Olaf; Blanc, Lilian; Bonal, Damien; Brando, Paulo; Chave, Jerome; de Oliveira, Atila Cristina Alves; Cardozo, Nallaret Dávila; Czimczik, Claudia I; Feldpausch, Ted R; Freitas, Maria Aparecida; Gloor, Emanuel; Higuchi, Niro; Jiménez, Eliana; Lloyd, Gareth; Meir, Patrick; Mendoza, Casimiro; Morel, Alexandra; Neill, David A; Nepstad, Daniel; Patiño, Sandra; Peñuela, Maria Cristina; Prieto, Adriana; Ramírez, Fredy; Schwarz, Michael; Silva, Javier; Silveira, Marcos; Thomas, Anne Sota; Steege, Hans Ter; Stropp, Juliana; Vásquez, Rodolfo; Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Alvarez Dávila, Esteban; Andelman, Sandy; Andrade, Ana; Chao, Kuo-Jung; Erwin, Terry; Di Fiore, Anthony; Honorio C, Eurídice; Keeling, Helen; Killeen, Tim J; Laurance, William F; Peña Cruz, Antonio; Pitman, Nigel C A; Núñez Vargas, Percy; Ramírez-Angulo, Hirma; Rudas, Agustín; Salamão, Rafael; Silva, Natalino; Terborgh, John; Torres-Lezama, Armando

2009-03-06

Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events. Affected forest lost biomass, reversing a large long-term carbon sink, with the greatest impacts observed where the dry season was unusually intense. Relative to pre-2005 conditions, forest subjected to a 100-millimeter increase in water deficit lost 5.3 megagrams of aboveground biomass of carbon per hectare. The drought had a total biomass carbon impact of 1.2 to 1.6 petagrams (1.2 x 10(15) to 1.6 x 10(15) grams). Amazon forests therefore appear vulnerable to increasing moisture stress, with the potential for large carbon losses to exert feedback on climate change.

Simple global carbon model: The atmosphere-terrestrial biosphere-ocean interaction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kwon, O.Y.; Schnoor, J.L.

A simple global carbon model has been developed for scenario analysis, and research needs prioritization. CO{sub 2} fertilization and temperature effects are included in the terrestrial biosphere compartment, and the ocean compartment includes inorganic chemistry which, with ocean water circulation, enables the calculation of time-variable oceanic carbon uptake. Model-derived Q{sub 10} values (the increasing rate for every 10{degrees}C increase of temperature) are 1.37 for land biota photosynthesis, 1.89 for land biota respiration, and 1.95 for soil respiration, and feedback temperature is set at 0.01{degrees}C/ppm of CO{sub 2}. These could be the important parameters controlling the carbon cycle in potential globalmore » warming scenarios. Scenario analysis, together with sensitivity analysis of temperature feedback, suggests that if CO{sub 2} emissions from fossil fuel combustion continue at the present increasing rate of {approximately}1.5% per year, a CO{sub 2} doubling (to 560 ppm) will appear in year 2060. Global warming would be responsible for 40 Gt as carbon (Gt C) accumulation in the land biota, 88 Gt C depletion from the soil carbon, a 7 Gt C accumulation in the oceans, and a 19 ppm increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2}. The ocean buffering capacity to take up the excess CO{sub 2} will decrease with the increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration. 51 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Predictors of Drought Recovery across Forest Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderegg, W.

2016-12-01

The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but central for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with basic plant physiological understanding. Here, we discuss what we have learned about forest ecosystem recovery from extreme drought across spatial and temporal scales, drawing on inference from tree rings, eddy covariance data, large scale gross primary productivity products, and ecosystem models. In tree rings, we find pervasive and substantial "legacy effects" of reduced growth and incomplete recovery for 1-4 years after severe drought, and that legacy effects are most prevalent in dry ecosystems, Pinaceae, and species with low hydraulic safety margins. At larger scales, we see relatively rapid recovery of ecosystem fluxes, with strong influences of ecosystem productivity and diversity and longer recovery periods in high latidue forests. In contrast, no or limited legacy effects are simulated in current climate-vegetation models after drought, and we highlight some of the key missing mechanisms in dynamic vegetation models. Our results reveal hysteresis in forest ecosystem carbon cycling and delayed recovery from climate extremes and help advance a predictive understanding of ecosystem recovery.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Bunn, Andrew G.; Thomson, Allison M.

High-latitude northern ecosystems are experiencing rapid climate changes, and represent a large potential climate feedback because of their high soil carbon densities and shifting disturbance regimes. A significant carbon flow from these ecosystems is soil respiration (RS, the flow of carbon dioxide, generated by plant roots and soil fauna, from the soil surface to atmosphere), and any change in the high-latitude carbon cycle might thus be reflected in RS observed in the field. This study used two variants of a machine-learning algorithm and least squares regression to examine how remotely-sensed canopy greenness (NDVI), climate, and other variables are coupled tomore » annual RS based on 105 observations from 64 circumpolar sites in a global database. The addition of NDVI roughly doubled model performance, with the best-performing models explaining ~62% of observed RS variability« less

A Sulfur Dioxide Climate Feedback on Early Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halevy, I.; Pierrehumbert, R. T.; Schrag, D. P.

2007-12-01

Reconciling evidence for persistent liquid water during the late Noachian with our understanding of the evolution of the Martian atmosphere and of solar luminosity remains a challenge, despite several decades of research. An optically-thicker atmosphere to supply the necessary radiative forcing would result in the existence of a carbon cycle similar to Earth's, where the release of CO2 from volcanoes is balanced by burial of calcium carbonate through silicate weathering reactions that remove protons and release alkalinity to surface waters. Existence of such a carbon cycle on Mars, even for tens of millions of years, would yield carbonate sediments in far greater abundance than has been observed, as well as residual clay minerals. The high concentration of sulfur in Martian soils and rocks indicates that Martian volcanic emissions contained abundant sulfur volatiles in addition to CO2. However, the atmospheric and aquatic chemistry of SO2 under the reducing conditions of early Mars, in contrast with the presently oxidizing and biologically-catalyzed Earth, has not been thoroughly examined. We argue that these conditions may have allowed atmospheric concentrations of SO2 high enough to augment a thick CO2-H2O greenhouse. Furthermore, early Martian climate may have been stabilized by a feedback mechanism involving SO2 and the solubility of sulfite minerals instead of CO2 and the solubility of carbonates. We present the results of a one-dimensional radiative-convective model, demonstrating the radiative importance of SO2 to the planetary energy budget. We also use a simple geochemical model to show that the presence of SO2 in the early Martian atmosphere would have dominated the aquatic chemistry on the planet's surface, and may provide an explanation for how water could have persisted for millions of years without forming massive carbonate sediments, yet allowing the formation of clay minerals.

Warming accelerates decomposition of decades-old carbon in forest soils

DOE PAGES

Hopkins, F. M.; Torn, M. S.; Trumbore, S. E.

2012-06-11

Global climate carbon-cycle models predict acceleration of soil organic carbon losses to the atmosphere with warming, but the size of this feedback is poorly known. The temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition is commonly determined by measuring changes in the rate of carbon dioxide (CO 2) production under controlled laboratory conditions. We added measurements of carbon isotopes in respired CO 2 to constrain the age of carbon substrates contributing to the temperature response of decomposition for surface soils from two temperate forest sites with very different overall rates of carbon cycling. Roughly one-third of the carbon respired at any temperaturemore » was fixed from the atmosphere more than 10 y ago, and the mean age of respired carbon reflected a mixture of substrates of varying ages. Consistent with global ecosystem model predictions, the temperature sensitivity of the carbon fixed more than a decade ago was the same as the temperature sensitivity for carbon fixed less than 10 y ago. However, we also observed an overall increase in the mean age of carbon respired at higher temperatures, even correcting for potential substrate limitation effects. The combination of several age constraints from carbon isotopes showed that warming had a similar effect on respiration of decades-old and younger (<10 y) carbon but a greater effect on decomposition of substrates of intermediate (between 7 and 13 y) age. Our results highlight the vulnerability of soil carbon to warming that is years-to-decades old, which makes up a large fraction of total soil carbon in forest soils globally.« less

Warming accelerates decomposition of decades-old carbon in forest soils.

PubMed

Hopkins, Francesca M; Torn, Margaret S; Trumbore, Susan E

2012-06-26

Global climate carbon-cycle models predict acceleration of soil organic carbon losses to the atmosphere with warming, but the size of this feedback is poorly known. The temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition is commonly determined by measuring changes in the rate of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) production under controlled laboratory conditions. We added measurements of carbon isotopes in respired CO(2) to constrain the age of carbon substrates contributing to the temperature response of decomposition for surface soils from two temperate forest sites with very different overall rates of carbon cycling. Roughly one-third of the carbon respired at any temperature was fixed from the atmosphere more than 10 y ago, and the mean age of respired carbon reflected a mixture of substrates of varying ages. Consistent with global ecosystem model predictions, the temperature sensitivity of the carbon fixed more than a decade ago was the same as the temperature sensitivity for carbon fixed less than 10 y ago. However, we also observed an overall increase in the mean age of carbon respired at higher temperatures, even correcting for potential substrate limitation effects. The combination of several age constraints from carbon isotopes showed that warming had a similar effect on respiration of decades-old and younger (<10 y) carbon but a greater effect on decomposition of substrates of intermediate (between 7 and 13 y) age. Our results highlight the vulnerability of soil carbon to warming that is years-to-decades old, which makes up a large fraction of total soil carbon in forest soils globally.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, P. E.; Calvin, K. V.; Jones, A. D.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Shi, X.; Mao, J.; Collins, W. D.; Edmonds, J.; Hurtt, G. C.

2017-12-01

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. In this work we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Land ecosystem response to increased carbon dioxide concentration, increased anthropogenic nitrogen deposition, and changes in temperature and precipitation all play a role. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated in this work are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.

Climate change and carbon-cycling during the latest Cretaceous-Early Paleogene; a new 13.5 million year-long, orbital-resolution, stable isotope record from the South Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnet, J.; Littler, K.; Kroon, D.; Leng, M. J.; Westerhold, T.; Roehl, U.; Zachos, J. C.

2017-12-01

The "greenhouse" world of the latest Cretaceous-Early Paleogene ( 70-34 Ma) was characterised by multi-million year variability in climate and the carbon-cycle. Throughout this interval the pervasive imprint of orbital-cyclicity, particularly eccentricity and precession, is visible in elemental and stable isotope data obtained from multiple deep-sea sites. Periodic "hyperthermal" events, occurring largely in-step with these orbital cycles, have proved particularly enigmatic, and may be the closest, albeit imperfect, analogues for anthropogenic climate change. This project utilises CaCO3-rich marine sediments recovered from ODP Site 1262 at a paleo-depth of 3600 m on the Walvis Ridge, South Atlantic, of late Maastrichtian-mid Paleocene age ( 67-60 Ma). We have derived high-resolution (2.5-4 kyr) carbon and oxygen isotope data from the epifaunal benthic foraminifera species Nuttallides truempyi. Combining the new record with the existing Late Paleocene-Early Eocene record generated from the same site by Littler et al. (2014), yields a single-site reference curve detailing 13.5 million years of orbital cyclicity in paleoclimate and carbon cycle from the latest Cretaceous to near the peak warmth of the Early Paleogene greenhouse. Spectral analysis of this new combined dataset allows us to identify long (405-kyr) eccentricity, short (100-kyr) eccentricity, and precession (19-23-kyr) as the principle forcing mechanisms governing pacing of the background climate and carbon-cycle during this time period, with a comparatively weak obliquity (41-kyr) signal. Cross-spectral analysis suggests that changes in climate lead the carbon cycle throughout most of the record, emphasising the role of the release of temperature-sensitive carbon stores as a positive feedback to an initial warming induced by changes in orbital configuration. The expression of comparatively understudied Early Paleocene events, including the Dan-C2 Event, Latest Danian Event, and Danian/Selandian Transition Event, are also identified within this new record, confirming the global nature and orbital pacing of the Latest Danian Event and Danian/Selandian Transition Event, but questioning the Dan-C2 event as a global hyperthermal.

The carbon cycle in the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-ESM1) - Part 1: Model description and pre-industrial simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, Rachel M.; Ziehn, Tilo; Matear, Richard J.; Lenton, Andrew; Chamberlain, Matthew A.; Stevens, Lauren E.; Wang, Ying-Ping; Srbinovsky, Jhan; Bi, Daohua; Yan, Hailin; Vohralik, Peter F.

2017-07-01

Earth system models (ESMs) that incorporate carbon-climate feedbacks represent the present state of the art in climate modelling. Here, we describe the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS)-ESM1, which comprises atmosphere (UM7.3), land (CABLE), ocean (MOM4p1), and sea-ice (CICE4.1) components with OASIS-MCT coupling, to which ocean and land carbon modules have been added. The land carbon model (as part of CABLE) can optionally include both nitrogen and phosphorous limitation on the land carbon uptake. The ocean carbon model (WOMBAT, added to MOM) simulates the evolution of phosphate, oxygen, dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity and iron with one class of phytoplankton and zooplankton. We perform multi-centennial pre-industrial simulations with a fixed atmospheric CO2 concentration and different land carbon model configurations (prescribed or prognostic leaf area index). We evaluate the equilibration of the carbon cycle and present the spatial and temporal variability in key carbon exchanges. Simulating leaf area index results in a slight warming of the atmosphere relative to the prescribed leaf area index case. Seasonal and interannual variations in land carbon exchange are sensitive to whether leaf area index is simulated, with interannual variations driven by variability in precipitation and temperature. We find that the response of the ocean carbon cycle shows reasonable agreement with observations. While our model overestimates surface phosphate values, the global primary productivity agrees well with observations. Our analysis highlights some deficiencies inherent in the carbon models and where the carbon simulation is negatively impacted by known biases in the underlying physical model and consequent limits on the applicability of this model version. We conclude the study with a brief discussion of key developments required to further improve the realism of our model simulation.

A minimal mathematical model combining several regulatory cycles from the budding yeast cell cycle.

PubMed

Sriram, K; Bernot, G; Képès, F

2007-11-01

A novel topology of regulatory networks abstracted from the budding yeast cell cycle is studied by constructing a simple nonlinear model. A ternary positive feedback loop with only positive regulations is constructed with elements that activates the subsequent element in a clockwise fashion. A ternary negative feedback loop with only negative regulations is constructed with the elements that inhibit the subsequent element in an anticlockwise fashion. Positive feedback loop exhibits bistability, whereas the negative feedback loop exhibits limit cycle oscillations. The novelty of the topology is that the corresponding elements in these two homogeneous feedback loops are linked by the binary positive feedback loops with only positive regulations. This results in the emergence of mixed feedback loops in the network that displays complex behaviour like the coexistence of multiple steady states, relaxation oscillations and chaos. Importantly, the arrangement of the feedback loops brings in the notion of checkpoint in the model. The model also exhibits domino-like behaviour, where the limit cycle oscillations take place in a stepwise fashion. As the aforementioned topology is abstracted from the budding yeast cell cycle, the events that govern the cell cycle are considered for the present study. In budding yeast, the sequential activation of the transcription factors, cyclins and their inhibitors form mixed feedback loops. The transcription factors that involve in the positive regulation in a clockwise orientation generates ternary positive feedback loop, while the cyclins and their inhibitors that involve in the negative regulation in an anticlockwise orientation generates ternary negative feedback loop. The mutual regulation between the corresponding elements in the transcription factors and the cyclins and their inhibitors generates binary positive feedback loops. The bifurcation diagram constructed for the whole system can be related to the different events of the cell cycle in terms of dynamical system theory. The checkpoint mechanism that plays an important role in different phases of the cell cycle are accounted for by silencing appropriate feedback loops in the model.

The Carbonate-Silicate Cycle on Earth-like Planets Near The End Of Their Habitable Lifetimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rushby, A. J.; Mills, B.; Johnson, M.; Claire, M.

2016-12-01

The terrestrial cycle of silicate weathering and metamorphic outgassing buffers atmospheric CO2 and global climate over geological time on Earth. To first order, the operation of this cycle is assumed to occur on Earth-like planets in the orbit of other main-sequence stars in the galaxy that exhibit similar continent/ocean configurations. This has important implications for studies of planetary habitability, atmospheric and climatic evolution, and our understanding of the potential distribution of life in the Universe. We present results from a simple biogeochemical carbon cycle model developed to investigate the operation of the carbonate-silicate cycle under conditions of differing planet mass and position within the radiative habitable zone. An active carbonate-silicate cycle does extend the length of a planet's habitable period through the regulation of the CO2 greenhouse. However, the breakdown of the negative feedback between temperature, pCO2, and weathering rates towards the end of a planet's habitable lifespan results in a transitory regime of `carbon starvation' that would inhibit the ability of oxygenic photoautotrophs to metabolize, and result in the collapse of any putative biosphere supported by these organisms, suggesting an earlier limit for the initiation of inhabitable conditions than when considering temperature alone. This conclusion stresses the importance of considering the full suite of planetary properties when determining potential habitability. A small sample of exoplanets was tested using this model, and the length of their habitable periods were found to be significantly longer than that of the Earth, primarily as a function of the differential rates of stellar evolution expected from their host stars. Furthermore, we carried out statistical analysis of a series of model input parameters, determining that both the mass of the planet and the sensitivity of seafloor weathering processes to dissolved CO2 exhibit significant controls on the length of a planet's habitable period.

Vulnerability of permafrost carbon research coordination network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schädel, C.; Schuur, E. A. G.; McGuire, A. D.; Canadell, J. G.; Harden, J.; Kuhry, P.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Turetsky, M. R.

2012-04-01

Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much carbon than currently contained in the atmosphere. Permafrost thaw, and the microbial decomposition of previously frozen organic carbon, is considered one of the most likely positive feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a warmer world. Yet, the rate and form of release is highly uncertain but crucial for predicting the strength and timing of this carbon cycle feedback this century and beyond. Here we report on the first products of a new research coordination network (RCN) whose objective is to link biological C cycle research with well-developed networks in the physical sciences focused on the thermal state of permafrost. We found that published literature in the Science Citation Index identified with the search terms 'permafrost' and 'carbon' have increased dramatically in the last decade. Of total publications including those keywords, 86% were published since 2000, 65% since 2005, and 36% since 2008. The first RCN activity consisted of an expert elicitation that revealed the total effect of carbon release from permafrost zone soils in climate is expected to be up to 30-46 Pg C over the next three decades, reaching 242-324 Pg C by 2100 and potentially up to 551-710 Pg C over the next several centuries under the strongest warming scenario presented to the group. These values, expressed in billions of tons of C in CO2 equivalents, combine the effect of C released both as CO2 and as CH4 by accounting for the greater heat-trapping capacity of CH4. However, the higher global warming potential of CH4 means that almost half of the effect of future permafrost zone carbon emissions on climate forcing was expected by this group to be a result of CH4 emissions from wetlands, lakes, and other oxygen-limited environments where organic matter will be decomposing. These results demonstrate the vulnerability of organic C stored in near surface permafrost to increasing temperatures. Future activities of this network include synthesizing information in formats that can be assimilated by biospheric and climate models, and that will contribute to future assessments of the IPCC.

The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response.

PubMed

Lowe, Jason A; Bernie, Daniel

2018-05-13

A number of studies have examined the size of the allowable global cumulative carbon budget compatible with limiting twenty-first century global average temperature rise to below 2°C and below 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. These estimates of cumulative emissions have a number of uncertainties including those associated with the climate sensitivity and the global carbon cycle. Although the IPCC fifth assessment report contained information on a range of Earth system feedbacks, such as carbon released by thawing of permafrost or methane production by wetlands as a result of climate change, the impact of many of these Earth system processes on the allowable carbon budgets remains to be quantified. Here, we make initial estimates to show that the combined impact from typically unrepresented Earth system processes may be important for the achievability of limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The size of the effects range up to around a 350 GtCO 2 budget reduction for a 1.5°C warming limit and around a 500 GtCO 2 reduction for achieving a warming limit of 2°C. Median estimates for the extra Earth system forcing lead to around 100 GtCO 2 and 150 GtCO 2 , respectively, for the two warming limits. Our estimates are equivalent to several years of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions at present rates. In addition to the likely reduction of the allowable global carbon budgets, the extra feedbacks also bring forward the date at which a given warming threshold is likely to be exceeded for a particular emission pathway.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Author(s).

The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, Jason A.; Bernie, Daniel

2018-05-01

A number of studies have examined the size of the allowable global cumulative carbon budget compatible with limiting twenty-first century global average temperature rise to below 2°C and below 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. These estimates of cumulative emissions have a number of uncertainties including those associated with the climate sensitivity and the global carbon cycle. Although the IPCC fifth assessment report contained information on a range of Earth system feedbacks, such as carbon released by thawing of permafrost or methane production by wetlands as a result of climate change, the impact of many of these Earth system processes on the allowable carbon budgets remains to be quantified. Here, we make initial estimates to show that the combined impact from typically unrepresented Earth system processes may be important for the achievability of limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The size of the effects range up to around a 350 GtCO2 budget reduction for a 1.5°C warming limit and around a 500 GtCO2 reduction for achieving a warming limit of 2°C. Median estimates for the extra Earth system forcing lead to around 100 GtCO2 and 150 GtCO2, respectively, for the two warming limits. Our estimates are equivalent to several years of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions at present rates. In addition to the likely reduction of the allowable global carbon budgets, the extra feedbacks also bring forward the date at which a given warming threshold is likely to be exceeded for a particular emission pathway. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Nutrient feedbacks to soil heterotrophic nitrogen fixation in forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perakis, Steven; Pett-Ridge, Julie C.; Catricala, Christina E.

2017-01-01

Multiple nutrient cycles regulate biological nitrogen (N) fixation in forests, yet long-term feedbacks between N-fixation and coupled element cycles remain largely unexplored. We examined soil nutrients and heterotrophic N-fixation across a gradient of 24 temperate conifer forests shaped by legacies of symbiotic N-fixing trees. We observed positive relationships among mineral soil pools of N, carbon (C), organic molybdenum (Mo), and organic phosphorus (P) across sites, evidence that legacies of symbiotic N-fixing trees can increase the abundance of multiple elements important to heterotrophic N-fixation. Soil N accumulation lowered rates of heterotrophic N-fixation in organic horizons due to both N inhibition of nitrogenase enzymes and declines in soil organic matter quality. Experimental fertilization of organic horizon soil revealed widespread Mo limitation of heterotrophic N-fixation, especially at sites where soil Mo was scarce relative to C. Fertilization also revealed widespread absence of P limitation, consistent with high soil P:Mo ratios. Responses of heterotrophic N-fixation to added Mo (positive) and N (negative) were correlated across sites, evidence that multiple nutrient controls of heterotrophic N-fixation were more common than single-nutrient effects. We propose a conceptual model where symbiotic N-fixation promotes coupled N, C, P, and Mo accumulation in soil, leading to positive feedback that relaxes nutrient limitation of overall N-fixation, though heterotrophic N-fixation is primarily suppressed by strong negative feedback from long-term soil N accumulation.

Elevated temperature alters carbon cycling in a model microbial community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosier, A.; Li, Z.; Thomas, B. C.; Hettich, R. L.; Pan, C.; Banfield, J. F.

2013-12-01

Earth's climate is regulated by biogeochemical carbon exchanges between the land, oceans and atmosphere that are chiefly driven by microorganisms. Microbial communities are therefore indispensible to the study of carbon cycling and its impacts on the global climate system. In spite of the critical role of microbial communities in carbon cycling processes, microbial activity is currently minimally represented or altogether absent from most Earth System Models. Method development and hypothesis-driven experimentation on tractable model ecosystems of reduced complexity, as presented here, are essential for building molecularly resolved, benchmarked carbon-climate models. Here, we use chemoautotropic acid mine drainage biofilms as a model community to determine how elevated temperature, a key parameter of global climate change, regulates the flow of carbon through microbial-based ecosystems. This study represents the first community proteomics analysis using tandem mass tags (TMT), which enable accurate, precise, and reproducible quantification of proteins. We compare protein expression levels of biofilms growing over a narrow temperature range expected to occur with predicted climate changes. We show that elevated temperature leads to up-regulation of proteins involved in amino acid metabolism and protein modification, and down-regulation of proteins involved in growth and reproduction. Closely related bacterial genotypes differ in their response to temperature: Elevated temperature represses carbon fixation by two Leptospirillum genotypes, whereas carbon fixation is significantly up-regulated at higher temperature by a third closely related genotypic group. Leptospirillum group III bacteria are more susceptible to viral stress at elevated temperature, which may lead to greater carbon turnover in the microbial food web through the release of viral lysate. Overall, this proteogenomics approach revealed the effects of climate change on carbon cycling pathways and other microbial activities. When scaled to more complex ecosystems and integrated into Earth System Models, this approach could significantly improve predictions of global carbon-climate feedbacks. Experiments such as these are a critical first step designed at understanding climate change impacts in order to better predict ecosystem adaptations, assess the viability of mitigation strategies, and inform relevant policy decisions.

Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, J. B.; Sikka, M.; Oechel, W. C.; Huntzinger, D. N.; Melton, J. R.; Koven, C. D.; Ahlström, A.; Arain, A. M.; Baker, I.; Chen, J. M.; Ciais, P.; Davidson, C.; Dietze, M.; El-Masri, B.; Hayes, D.; Huntingford, C.; Jain, A.; Levy, P. E.; Lomas, M. R.; Poulter, B.; Price, D.; Sahoo, A. K.; Schaefer, K.; Tian, H.; Tomelleri, E.; Verbeeck, H.; Viovy, N.; Wania, R.; Zeng, N.; Miller, C. E.

2014-02-01

Climate change is leading to a disproportionately large warming in the high northern latitudes, but the magnitude and sign of the future carbon balance of the Arctic are highly uncertain. Using 40 terrestrial biosphere models for Alaska, we provide a baseline of terrestrial carbon cycle structural and parametric uncertainty, defined as the multi-model standard deviation (σ) against the mean (x\\bar) for each quantity. Mean annual uncertainty (σ/x\\bar) was largest for net ecosystem exchange (NEE) (-0.01± 0.19 kg C m-2 yr-1), then net primary production (NPP) (0.14 ± 0.33 kg C m-2 yr-1), autotrophic respiration (Ra) (0.09 ± 0.20 kg C m-2 yr-1), gross primary production (GPP) (0.22 ± 0.50 kg C m-2 yr-1), ecosystem respiration (Re) (0.23 ± 0.38 kg C m-2 yr-1), CH4 flux (2.52 ± 4.02 g CH4 m-2 yr-1), heterotrophic respiration (Rh) (0.14 ± 0.20 kg C m-2 yr-1), and soil carbon (14.0± 9.2 kg C m-2). The spatial patterns in regional carbon stocks and fluxes varied widely with some models showing NEE for Alaska as a strong carbon sink, others as a strong carbon source, while still others as carbon neutral. Additionally, a feedback (i.e., sensitivity) analysis was conducted of 20th century NEE to CO2 fertilization (β) and climate (γ), which showed that uncertainty in γ was 2x larger than that of β, with neither indicating that the Alaskan Arctic is shifting towards a certain net carbon sink or source. Finally, AmeriFlux data are used at two sites in the Alaskan Arctic to evaluate the regional patterns; observed seasonal NEE was captured within multi-model uncertainty. This assessment of carbon cycle uncertainties may be used as a baseline for the improvement of experimental and modeling activities, as well as a reference for future trajectories in carbon cycling with climate change in the Alaskan Arctic.

Carbon-climate-human interactions in an integrated human-Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Jones, A. D.; Shi, X.

2016-12-01

The C4MIP and CMIP5 results highlighted large uncertainties in climate projections, driven to a large extent by limited understanding of the interactions between terrestrial carbon-cycle and climate feedbacks, and their associated uncertainties. These feedbacks are dominated by uncertainties in soil processes, disturbance dynamics, ecosystem response to climate change, and agricultural productivity, and land-use change. This research addresses three questions: (1) how do terrestrial feedbacks vary across different levels of climate change, (2) what is the relative contribution of CO2 fertilization and climate change, and (3) how robust are the results across different models and methods? We used a coupled modeling framework that integrates an Integrated Assessment Model (modeling economic and energy activity) with an Earth System Model (modeling the natural earth system) to examine how business-as-usual (RCP 8.5) climate change will affect ecosystem productivity, cropland extent, and other aspects of the human-Earth system. We find that higher levels of radiative forcing result in higher productivity growth, that increases in CO2 concentrations are the dominant contributors to that growth, and that our productivity increases fall in the middle of the range when compared to other CMIP5 models and the AgMIP models. These results emphasize the importance of examining both the anthropogenic and natural components of the earth system, and their long-term interactive feedbacks.

Siple Dome ice reveals two modes of millennial CO2 change during the last ice age

PubMed Central

Ahn, Jinho; Brook, Edward J.

2014-01-01

Reconstruction of atmospheric CO2 during times of past abrupt climate change may help us better understand climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. Previous ice core studies reveal simultaneous increases in atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature during times when Greenland and the northern hemisphere experienced very long, cold stadial conditions during the last ice age. Whether this relationship extends to all of the numerous stadial events in the Greenland ice core record has not been clear. Here we present a high-resolution record of atmospheric CO2 from the Siple Dome ice core, Antarctica for part of the last ice age. We find that CO2 does not significantly change during the short Greenlandic stadial events, implying that the climate system perturbation that produced the short stadials was not strong enough to substantially alter the carbon cycle. PMID:24781344

Interactions and Feedbacks Between Biomass Burning and Water Cycle Dynamics Across the Northern Sub-Saharan African Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ichoku, Charles

2012-01-01

The northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region, bounded on the north and south by the Sahara and the Equator, respectively, and stretching from the West to the East African coastlines, has one of the highest biomass-burning rates per unit land area among all regions of the world. Because of the high concentration and frequency of fires in this region, with the associated abundance of heat release and gaseous and particulate smoke emissions, biomass-burning activity is believed to be one of the drivers of the regional carbon and energy cycles, with serious implications for the water cycle. A new interdisciplinary research effort sponsored by NASA is presently being focused on the NSSA region, to better understand the possible connection between the intense biomass burning observed from satellite year after year across the region and the rapid depletion of the regional water resources, as exemplified by the dramatic drying of Lake Chad. A combination of remote sensing and modeling approaches is being utilized in investigating multiple regional surface, atmospheric, and water-cycle processes, and inferring possible links between them. In this presentation, we will discuss preliminary results as well as the path toward improved understanding of the interrelationships and feedbacks between the biomass burning and the environmental change dynamics in the NSSA region.

Experimental geobiology links evolutionary intensification of rooting systems and weathering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quirk, Joe; Beerling, David; Leake, Jonathan

2016-04-01

The evolution of mycorrhizal fungi in partnership with early land plants over 440 million years ago led to the greening of the continents by plants of increasing biomass, rooting depth, nutrient demand and capacity to alter soil minerals, culminating in modern forested ecosystems. The later co-evolution of trees and rooting systems with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, together driving the biogeochemical cycling of elements and weathering of minerals in soil to meet subsequent increased phosphorus demands is thought to constitute one the most important biotic feedbacks on the geochemical carbon cycle to emerge during the Phanerozoic, and fundamentally rests on the intensifying effect of trees and their root-associating mycorrhizal fungal partners on mineral weathering. Here I present experimental and field evidence linking these evolutionary events to a mechanistic framework whereby: (1) as plants evolved in stature, biomass, and rooting depth, their mycorrhizal fungal partnerships received increasing amounts of plant photosynthate; (2) this enabled intensification of plant-driven fungal weathering of rocks to release growth-limiting nutrients; (3) in turn, this increased land-to-ocean export of Ca and P and enhanced ocean carbonate precipitation impacting the global carbon cycle and biosphere-geosphere-ocean-atmosphere interactions over the past 410 Ma. Our findings support an over-arching hypothesis that evolution has selected plant and mycorrhizal partnerships that have intensified mineral weathering and altered global biogeochemical cycles.

Root structure-function relationships in 74 species: evidence of a root economics spectrum related to carbon economy.

PubMed

Roumet, Catherine; Birouste, Marine; Picon-Cochard, Catherine; Ghestem, Murielle; Osman, Normaniza; Vrignon-Brenas, Sylvain; Cao, Kun-Fang; Stokes, Alexia

2016-05-01

Although fine roots are important components of the global carbon cycle, there is limited understanding of root structure-function relationships among species. We determined whether root respiration rate and decomposability, two key processes driving carbon cycling but always studied separately, varied with root morphological and chemical traits, in a coordinated way that would demonstrate the existence of a root economics spectrum (RES). Twelve traits were measured on fine roots (diameter ≤ 2 mm) of 74 species (31 graminoids and 43 herbaceous and dwarf shrub eudicots) collected in three biomes. The findings of this study support the existence of a RES representing an axis of trait variation in which root respiration was positively correlated to nitrogen concentration and specific root length and negatively correlated to the root dry matter content, lignin : nitrogen ratio and the remaining mass after decomposition. This pattern of traits was highly consistent within graminoids but less consistent within eudicots, as a result of an uncoupling between decomposability and morphology, and of heterogeneity of individual roots of eudicots within the fine-root pool. The positive relationship found between root respiration and decomposability is essential for a better understanding of vegetation-soil feedbacks and for improving terrestrial biosphere models predicting the consequences of plant community changes for carbon cycling. © 2016 CNRS. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Emiliania huxleyi increases calcification but not expression of calcification-related genes in long-term exposure to elevated temperature and pCO2.

PubMed

Benner, Ina; Diner, Rachel E; Lefebvre, Stephane C; Li, Dian; Komada, Tomoko; Carpenter, Edward J; Stillman, Jonathon H

2013-01-01

Increased atmospheric pCO2 is expected to render future oceans warmer and more acidic than they are at present. Calcifying organisms such as coccolithophores that fix and export carbon into the deep sea provide feedbacks to increasing atmospheric pCO2. Acclimation experiments suggest negative effects of warming and acidification on coccolithophore calcification, but the ability of these organisms to adapt to future environmental conditions is not well understood. Here, we tested the combined effect of pCO2 and temperature on the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi over more than 700 generations. Cells increased inorganic carbon content and calcification rate under warm and acidified conditions compared with ambient conditions, whereas organic carbon content and primary production did not show any change. In contrast to findings from short-term experiments, our results suggest that long-term acclimation or adaptation could change, or even reverse, negative calcification responses in E. huxleyi and its feedback to the global carbon cycle. Genome-wide profiles of gene expression using RNA-seq revealed that genes thought to be essential for calcification are not those that are most strongly differentially expressed under long-term exposure to future ocean conditions. Rather, differentially expressed genes observed here represent new targets to study responses to ocean acidification and warming.

Using Calcium Isotopic Composition of Calcium Carbonate Veins to Assess the Roles of Vein Formation and Seafloor Alteration in Regulation of the Carbon Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, F.; Coggon, R. M.; Teagle, D. A. H.; Turchyn, A. V.

2016-12-01

Calcium carbonate vein formation in the oceanic crust has been proposed as a climate-sensitive feedback mechanism that regulates the carbon cycle on million-year timescales. The suggestion has been that higher pCO2 levels may drive changes in ocean temperature and pH that increase seafloor alteration, releasing more calcium from oceanic basalt. This results in more removal of carbon from Earth's surface through calcium carbonate formation, which includes calcium carbonate vein formation in oceanic crust. The importance of this feedback mechanism remains enigmatic. Measurements of the δ44Ca of calcium carbonate veins in the oceanic crust may constrain the sources of calcium and timing of vein formation. Seawater and basalt are the only sources present shortly after crustal formation, whereas other sources, such as anhydrite dissolution and sedimentary carbonates become available when the crust ages, at which point carbonate veins may form far from the ridge axis. We report the calcium isotopic composition of 65 calcium carbonate veins, ranging from 108 to 1.2 million years old, in hydrothermally altered basalt from the Mid-Atlantic and Juan de Fuca ridges. We also present 43 δ44Ca measurements of 5.9 million year old basalts and dikes from the Costa Rica Rift that have undergone hydrothermal alteration over a range of conditions in upper crust. The δ44Ca of the calcium carbonate veins ranges from -1.59 to 1.01‰ (versus Bulk Silicate Earth), whereas the δ44Ca of altered basalts ranges from -0.18 to 0.28‰. Depth and temperature of formation seem to be major influences on calcium carbonate vein δ44Ca, with veins formed at cool, shallower depths having higher δ44Ca, closer to seawater. In contrast, we note no temporal variation in δ44Ca of calcium carbonate veins when comparing samples from older and younger crust. The majority of veins (54 out of 65) have δ44Ca between that of seawater and basalt, which implies that they may have formed quite soon after crustal formation before other sources of calcium became available. We conclude that calcium carbonate vein formation may derive a significant fraction of calcium from seafloor alteration of basalts. This may cause rates of carbonate vein formation to be sensitive to aspects of ocean chemistry that vary due to changing climate conditions.

Atmospheric oxygen regulation at low Proterozoic levels by incomplete oxidative weathering of sedimentary organic carbon

PubMed Central

Daines, Stuart J.; Mills, Benjamin J. W.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2017-01-01

It is unclear why atmospheric oxygen remained trapped at low levels for more than 1.5 billion years following the Paleoproterozoic Great Oxidation Event. Here, we use models for erosion, weathering and biogeochemical cycling to show that this can be explained by the tectonic recycling of previously accumulated sedimentary organic carbon, combined with the oxygen sensitivity of oxidative weathering. Our results indicate a strong negative feedback regime when atmospheric oxygen concentration is of order pO2∼0.1 PAL (present atmospheric level), but that stability is lost at pO2<0.01 PAL. Within these limits, the carbonate carbon isotope (δ13C) record becomes insensitive to changes in organic carbon burial rate, due to counterbalancing changes in the weathering of isotopically light organic carbon. This can explain the lack of secular trend in the Precambrian δ13C record, and reopens the possibility that increased biological productivity and resultant organic carbon burial drove the Great Oxidation Event. PMID:28148950

Atmospheric oxygen regulation at low Proterozoic levels by incomplete oxidative weathering of sedimentary organic carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daines, Stuart J.; Mills, Benjamin J. W.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2017-02-01

It is unclear why atmospheric oxygen remained trapped at low levels for more than 1.5 billion years following the Paleoproterozoic Great Oxidation Event. Here, we use models for erosion, weathering and biogeochemical cycling to show that this can be explained by the tectonic recycling of previously accumulated sedimentary organic carbon, combined with the oxygen sensitivity of oxidative weathering. Our results indicate a strong negative feedback regime when atmospheric oxygen concentration is of order pO2~0.1 PAL (present atmospheric level), but that stability is lost at pO2<0.01 PAL. Within these limits, the carbonate carbon isotope (δ13C) record becomes insensitive to changes in organic carbon burial rate, due to counterbalancing changes in the weathering of isotopically light organic carbon. This can explain the lack of secular trend in the Precambrian δ13C record, and reopens the possibility that increased biological productivity and resultant organic carbon burial drove the Great Oxidation Event.

Sensible heat has significantly affected the global hydrological cycle over the historical period.

PubMed

Myhre, G; Samset, B H; Hodnebrog, Ø; Andrews, T; Boucher, O; Faluvegi, G; Fläschner, D; Forster, P M; Kasoar, M; Kharin, V; Kirkevåg, A; Lamarque, J-F; Olivié, D; Richardson, T B; Shawki, D; Shindell, D; Shine, K P; Stjern, C W; Takemura, T; Voulgarakis, A

2018-05-15

Globally, latent heating associated with a change in precipitation is balanced by changes to atmospheric radiative cooling and sensible heat fluxes. Both components can be altered by climate forcing mechanisms and through climate feedbacks, but the impacts of climate forcing and feedbacks on sensible heat fluxes have received much less attention. Here we show, using a range of climate modelling results, that changes in sensible heat are the dominant contributor to the present global-mean precipitation change since preindustrial time, because the radiative impact of forcings and feedbacks approximately compensate. The model results show a dissimilar influence on sensible heat and precipitation from various drivers of climate change. Due to its strong atmospheric absorption, black carbon is found to influence the sensible heat very differently compared to other aerosols and greenhouse gases. Our results indicate that this is likely caused by differences in the impact on the lower tropospheric stability.

Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests.

PubMed

Bonan, Gordon B

2008-06-13

The world's forests influence climate through physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. These complex and nonlinear forest-atmosphere interactions can dampen or amplify anthropogenic climate change. Tropical, temperate, and boreal reforestation and afforestation attenuate global warming through carbon sequestration. Biogeophysical feedbacks can enhance or diminish this negative climate forcing. Tropical forests mitigate warming through evaporative cooling, but the low albedo of boreal forests is a positive climate forcing. The evaporative effect of temperate forests is unclear. The net climate forcing from these and other processes is not known. Forests are under tremendous pressure from global change. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change.

Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wolf, Sebastian; Keenan, Trevor F.; Fisher, Joshua B.

The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world's fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here in this paper, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inversemore » modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphereatmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.« less

Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought.

PubMed

Wolf, Sebastian; Keenan, Trevor F; Fisher, Joshua B; Baldocchi, Dennis D; Desai, Ankur R; Richardson, Andrew D; Scott, Russell L; Law, Beverly E; Litvak, Marcy E; Brunsell, Nathaniel A; Peters, Wouter; van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T

2016-05-24

The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world's fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inverse modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphere-atmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.

Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought

PubMed Central

Keenan, Trevor F.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Richardson, Andrew D.; Scott, Russell L.; Law, Beverly E.; Litvak, Marcy E.; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.; Peters, Wouter

2016-01-01

The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world’s fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inverse modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphere-atmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks. PMID:27114518

Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought

DOE PAGES

Wolf, Sebastian; Keenan, Trevor F.; Fisher, Joshua B.; ...

2016-04-25

The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world's fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here in this paper, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inversemore » modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphereatmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.« less

Sundaland Peat Carbon Dynamics and Its Contribution to the Holocene Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abrams, Jesse F.; Hohn, Sönke; Rixen, Tim; Merico, Agostino

2018-04-01

The Sunda Shelf is a large submerged extension of the continental shelf of mainland Asia, joining the islands of Borneo, Java, and Sumatra and forming the shallow seabed of the South China Sea. Recent studies identified present-day peatlands in Southeast Asia as a globally important carbon reservoir. However, little is known about Sundaland paleopeatlands and their role in the global carbon cycle since the Last Glacial Maximum. Using a topography-based, sea level-driven model, we estimate the potential spatial extent of peatlands during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene across the low-lying Sundaland plains. We then use the estimated peatland area together with data on carbon accumulation rates to calculate the total peat carbon pool on the Sunda Shelf. Finally, using a global biogeochemical model, we analyze the relative influence of the predicted Sundaland peat dynamics and other carbon change mechanisms, specifically high-latitude forest growth and peat formation, shallow sea carbonate deposition, ocean warming, and combinations of them, on the global carbon cycle of the Holocene. We identify a feedback mechanism between sea level and peatland carbon sequestration in Sundaland that reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration by about 4-5 ppm and increased δ13C by 0.05‰ during the Holocene. We also show that a concurrence of mechanisms that includes Sundaland peat dynamics produces model results that are consistent with proxy records, especially with respect to δ13C.

Nitrogen feedbacks increase future terrestrial ecosystem carbon uptake in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wårlind, D.; Smith, B.; Hickler, T.; Arneth, A.

2014-01-01

Recently a considerable amount of effort has been put into quantifying how interactions of the carbon and nitrogen cycle affect future terrestrial carbon sinks. Dynamic vegetation models, representing the nitrogen cycle with varying degree of complexity, have shown diverging constraints of nitrogen dynamics on future carbon sequestration. In this study, we use the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to evaluate how population dynamics and resource competition between plant functional types, combined with nitrogen dynamics, have influenced the terrestrial carbon storage in the past and to investigate how terrestrial carbon and nitrogen dynamics might change in the future (1850 to 2100; one exemplary "business-as-usual" climate scenario). Single factor model experiments of CO2 fertilisation and climate change show generally similar directions of the responses of C-N interactions, compared to the C-only version of the model, as documented in previous studies. Under a RCP 8.5 scenario, nitrogen limitation suppresses potential CO2 fertilisation, reducing the cumulative net ecosystem carbon uptake between 1850 and 2100 by 61%, and soil warming-induced increase in nitrogen mineralisation reduces terrestrial carbon loss by 31%. When environmental changes are considered conjointly, carbon sequestration is limited by nitrogen dynamics until present. However, during the 21st century nitrogen dynamics induce a net increase in carbon sequestration, resulting in an overall larger carbon uptake of 17% over the full period. This contradicts earlier model results that showed an 8 to 37% decrease in carbon uptake, questioning the often stated assumption that projections of future terrestrial C dynamics from C-only models are too optimistic.

Using n-alkane records to constrain carbon cycle - hydrological cycle coupling: Case study from the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during the PETM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnan, S.; Pagani, M.; Tipple, B. J.

2010-12-01

The early Eocene was a warmer world compared to the present and is characterized by rising temperatures interspersed with rapid hyperthermal events. During the largest of these rapid warming events; the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), proxy records suggest that sea surface temperatures (SST) rose by 3-5 deg. C in the tropics (Zachos et al., 2003, Tripati and Elderfield, 2004), >5 deg. C in the Arctic (Sluijs et al., 2006) and perhaps has high as 9 deg. C in some sub-Antarctic regions (Kennett and Stott, 1991; Thomas et al., 1999). This warming is believed to be the result of massive input of 13C-depleted carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system, evidenced by the large negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) and carbonate dissolution associated with the event. However, there are several questions regarding the exact mechanism of warming and feedbacks between the carbon cycle and climate. Did climate shift prior to the main event that led to the release of isotopically light carbon? Do we observe consistent leads or lags between changes in carbon isotopes and hydrological conditions during warm intervals? This study aims to reconstruct hydrological changes in the in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during the PETM using terrestrial biomarkers. Terrestrial biomarkers, such leaf-wax lipids stored in sediments, have the unique advantage of recording carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions of atmospheric CO2 (modified by plant fractionation) and precipitation (modified by plant fractionation and evapotranspiration), allowing evaluation of the relative timing of carbon and hydrogen isotopic (i.e., climate) shifts. In this study, we compile and present three mid-latitude PETM records from the Northern Hemisphere, i.e. Alamedilla (Spain), Cicogna and Forada (Italy). The Cicogna and Forada sections are located in the Belluno basin (~12 km apart). Preliminary results do not indicate any significant pre-excursion hydrogen isotope changes at Cicogna, while at Forada we observe a pre-excursion shift toward more positive values. Comparison of the mean-weighted isotopic trends (to account for vegetation changes) indicates that the carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions shift simultaneously at the start of the CIE at Cicogna and Forada and remain coupled during the latter part of the recovery. However, the most depleted values in δD do not coincide with the most negative δ13C values, suggesting that the response time of the hydrological cycle was slower than the carbon isotopic excursion. The δD trends appear to diverge from δ13C records during the initial recovery period. This difference in response and response times between the initial perturbation and recovery enable us to constrain the timing and mechanism of feedbacks. A third section (Alamedilla), located at lower latitude, will be used to test these hypotheses. The timing and average magnitudes of δD changes at these three sites will be extrapolated to infer precipitation trends during the late Paleocene, peak PETM, and early Eocene for this region and will be useful for future data-model comparisons.

Vegetation and Carbon Cycle Dynamics in the High-Resolution Transient Holocene Simulations Using the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brovkin, V.; Lorenz, S.; Raddatz, T.; Claussen, M.; Dallmeyer, A.

2017-12-01

One of the interesting periods to investigate a climatic role of terrestrial biosphere is the Holocene, when, despite of the relatively steady global climate, the atmospheric CO2 grew by about 20 ppm from 7 kyr BP to pre-industrial. We use a new setup of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model MPI-ESM1 consisting of the latest version of the atmospheric model ECHAM6, including the land surface model JSBACH3 with carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, coupled to the ocean circulation model MPI-OM, which includes the HAMOCC model of ocean biogeochemistry. The model has been run for several simulations over the Holocene period of the last 8000 years under the forcing data sets of orbital insolation, atmospheric greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosols, solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone, as well as land-use changes. In response to this forcing, the land carbon storage increased by about 60 PgC between 8 and 4 kyr BP, stayed relatively constant until 2 kyr BP, and decreased by about 90 PgC by 1850 AD due to land use changes. At 8 kyr BP, vegetation cover was much denser in Africa, mainly due to increased rainfall in response to the orbital forcing. Boreal forests moved northward in both, North America and Eurasia. The boreal forest expansion in North America is much less pronounced than in Eurasia. Simulated physical ocean fields, including surface temperatures and meridional overturning, do not change substantially in the Holocene. Carbonate ion concentration in deep ocean decreases in both, prescribed and interactive CO2simulations. Comparison with available proxies for terrestrial vegetation and for the ocean carbonate chemistry will be presented. Vegetation and soil carbon changes significantly affected atmospheric CO2 during the periods of strong volcanic eruptions. In response to the eruption-caused cooling, the land initially stores more carbon as respiration decreases, but then it releases even more carbon die to productivity decrease. This decadal-scale variability helps to quantify the vegetation and land carbon feedbacks during the past periods when the temporal resolution of the ice-core CO2 record is not sufficient to capture fast CO2 variations. From a set of Holocene simulations with prescribed or interactive atmospheric CO2, we get estimates of climate-carbon feedback useful for future climate studies.

Diagnosing and Assessing Uncertainties of the Carbon Cycle in Terrestrial Ecosystem Models from a Multi-Model Ensemble Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Dungan, J. L.; Hashimoto, H.; Michaelis, A.; Milesi, C.; Ichii, K.; Nemani, R. R.

2009-12-01

We are conducting an ensemble modeling exercise using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) to characterize structural uncertainty in carbon fluxes and stocks estimates from different ecosystem models. The experiment uses public-domain versions of Biome-BGC, LPJ, TOPS-BGC, and CASA, driven by a consistent set of climate fields for North America at 8km resolution and daily/monthly time steps over the period of 1982-2006. A set of diagnostics is developed to characterize the behavior of the models in the climate (temperature-precipitation) space, and to evaluate the simulated carbon cycle in an integrated way. The key findings of this study include that: (relative) optimal primary production is generally found in climate regions where the relationship between annual temperature (T, oC) and precipitation (P, mm) is defined by P = 50*T+500; the ratios between NPP and GPP are close to 50% on average, yet can vary between models and in different climate regions; the allocation of carbon to leaf growth represents a positive feedback to the primary production, and different approaches to constrain this process have significant impacts on the simulated carbon cycle; substantial differences in biomass stocks may be induced by small differences in the tissue turnover rate and the plant mortality; the mean residence time of soil carbon pools is strongly influenced by schemes of temperature regulations; non-respiratory disturbances (e.g., fires) are the main driver for NEP, yet its magnitudes vary between models. Overall, these findings indicate that although the structures of the models are similar, the uncertainties among them can be large, highlighting the problem inherent in relying on only one modeling approach to map surface carbon fluxes or to assess vegetation-climate interactions.

Toward an integrated monitoring framework to assess the effects of tropical forest degradation and recovery on carbon stocks and biodiversity.

PubMed

Bustamante, Mercedes M C; Roitman, Iris; Aide, T Mitchell; Alencar, Ane; Anderson, Liana O; Aragão, Luiz; Asner, Gregory P; Barlow, Jos; Berenguer, Erika; Chambers, Jeffrey; Costa, Marcos H; Fanin, Thierry; Ferreira, Laerte G; Ferreira, Joice; Keller, Michael; Magnusson, William E; Morales-Barquero, Lucia; Morton, Douglas; Ometto, Jean P H B; Palace, Michael; Peres, Carlos A; Silvério, Divino; Trumbore, Susan; Vieira, Ima C G

2016-01-01

Tropical forests harbor a significant portion of global biodiversity and are a critical component of the climate system. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation contributes to global climate-change mitigation efforts, yet emissions and removals from forest dynamics are still poorly quantified. We reviewed the main challenges to estimate changes in carbon stocks and biodiversity due to degradation and recovery of tropical forests, focusing on three main areas: (1) the combination of field surveys and remote sensing; (2) evaluation of biodiversity and carbon values under a unified strategy; and (3) research efforts needed to understand and quantify forest degradation and recovery. The improvement of models and estimates of changes of forest carbon can foster process-oriented monitoring of forest dynamics, including different variables and using spatially explicit algorithms that account for regional and local differences, such as variation in climate, soil, nutrient content, topography, biodiversity, disturbance history, recovery pathways, and socioeconomic factors. Generating the data for these models requires affordable large-scale remote-sensing tools associated with a robust network of field plots that can generate spatially explicit information on a range of variables through time. By combining ecosystem models, multiscale remote sensing, and networks of field plots, we will be able to evaluate forest degradation and recovery and their interactions with biodiversity and carbon cycling. Improving monitoring strategies will allow a better understanding of the role of forest dynamics in climate-change mitigation, adaptation, and carbon cycle feedbacks, thereby reducing uncertainties in models of the key processes in the carbon cycle, including their impacts on biodiversity, which are fundamental to support forest governance policies, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate extremes and the carbon cycle - a review using an integrated approach with regional examples for forests & native ecosystems -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, D.; Reichstein, M.; Bahn, M.; Beer, C.; Ciais, P.; Mahecha, M.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Smith, P.; van Oijen, M.; Walz, A.

2012-04-01

The terrestrial carbon cycle provides an important biogeochemical feedback to climate and is itself particularly susceptible to extreme climate events. Climate extremes can override any (positive) effects of mean climate change as shown in European and recent US-American heat waves and dry spells. They can impact the structure, composition, and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems and have the potential to cause rapid carbon losses from accumulated stocks. We review how climate extremes like severe droughts, heat waves, extreme precipitation or storms can cause direct impacts on the CO2 fluxes [e.g. due to extreme temperature and/ or drought events] as well as lagged impacts on the carbon cycle [e.g. via an increased fire risk, or disease outbreaks and pest invasions]. The relative impact of the different climate extremes varies according to climate region and vegetation type. We present lagged effects on plant growth (and mortality) in the year(s) following an extreme event and their impacts on the carbon sequestration of forests and natural ecosystems. Comprehensive regional or even continental quantification with regard to extreme events is missing, and especially compound extreme events, the role of lagged effects and aspects of the return frequency are not studied enough. In a case study of a Mediterranean ecosystem we illustrate that the response of the net carbon balance at ecosystem level to regional climate change is hard to predict as interacting and partly compensating processes are affected and several processes which have the ability to substantially alter the carbon balance are not or not sufficiently represented in state-of-the-art biogeochemical models.

An early warning system for high climate sensitivity? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierrehumbert, R.

2010-12-01

The scientific case for the clear and present danger of global warming has been unassailable at least since the release of the Charney Report more than thirty years ago, if not longer. While prompt action to begin decarbonizing energy systems could still head off much of the potential warming, it is distinctly possible that emissions will continue unabated in the coming decades, leading to a doubling or more of pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentrations. At present, we are in the unenviable position of not even knowing how bad things will get if this scenario comes to pass, because of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. If climate sensitivity is high, then the consequences will be dire, perhaps even catastrophic. As the world continues to warm in response to continued carbon dioxide emissions, will we at least be able to monitor the climate and provide an early warning that the planet is on a high-sensitivity track, if such turns out to be the case? At what point will we actually know the climate sensitivity? It has long been recognized that the prime contributor to uncertainty in climate sensitivity is uncertainty in cloud feedbacks. Study of paleoclimate and climate of the past century has not been able to resolve which models do cloud feedback most correctly, because of uncertainties in radiative forcing. In this talk, I will discuss monitoring requirements, and analysis techniques, that might have the potential to determine which climate models most faithfully represent climate feedbacks, and thus determine which models provide the best estimate of climate sensitivity. The endeavor is complicated by the distinction between transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity. I will discuss the particular challenges posed by this issue, particularly in light of recent indications that the pattern of ocean heat storage may lead to different cloud feedbacks in the transient warming stage than apply once the system has reached equilibrium. Apart from this problem, the transient nature of climate response driven by increasing CO2 requires careful monitoring of ocean heat storage as well as top-of-atmosphere radiative budgets, if climate sensitivity is to be estimated. Water vapor feedback is not considered as uncertain as cloud feedback, but there is still a considerable potential for surprises. I will discuss microwave monitoring requirements for tracking water vapor feedback. At the other extreme, the longer term feedbacks that contribute to Earth System Sensitivity are even more uncertain than cloud feedbacks, particularly with regard to the terrestrial carbon cycle. Prospects for obtaining an early warning of a PETM-type organic carbon release seem bleak. Finally, I will discuss the particular challenge of obtaining an early warning of high climate sensitivity in the case that the climate system has a bifurcation.

CO2 Degassing Estimates from Rift Length Analysis since Pangea Fragmentation: A Key Component of the Deep Carbon Cycle?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brune, S.; Williams, S.; Müller, D.

2017-12-01

The deep carbon cycle links the carbon content of crust and mantle to Earth's surface: extensional plate boundaries and arc volcanoes release CO2 to the ocean and atmosphere while subducted lithosphere carries carbon back into the mantle. The length of extensional and convergent plate boundaries therefore exerts first-order control on solid Earth CO2 degassing rates. Here we provide a global census of plate boundary length for the last 200 million years. Focusing on rift systems, we find that the most extensive rift phase during the fragmentation of Pangea occurred in the Jurassic/Early Cretaceous with more than 50.000 km of simultaneously active continental rifts. During the Late Cretaceous, in the aftermath of this pervasive rift episode, the global rift length dropped by 60% to 20,000 km. We further find that a second pronounced rift episode with global rift lengths of up to 30,000 km started in Eocene times. A close geological link between CO2 degassing and faulting has been documented in currently active rift systems worldwide. Regional-scale CO2 flux densities at rift segments in Africa, Europe, and New Zealand feature an annual average value of 200 t of CO2 per km2. Assuming that the release of CO2 scales with rift length, we show that rift-related CO2 degassing rates during the two major Mesozoic and Cenozoic rift episodes reached more than 300% of present-day values. Most importantly, the timing of enhanced CO2 degassing from continental rifts correlates with two well-known periods of elevated atmospheric CO2 in the Mesozoic and Cenozoic as evidenced by multiple independent proxy indicators. Compiling the length of other plate boundaries (mid-ocean ridges, subduction zones, continental arcs) through time, we do not reproduce such a correlation. Finally, we conduct numerical carbon cycle models that account for key feedback-mechanisms of the long-term carbon cycle. We find that only those models that feature a strong rift degassing component reproduce the timing and amplitude of the paleo-CO2 record. We therefore suggest that rift-related degassing constitutes a key component of the deep carbon cycle.

The Description and Validation of a Computationally-Efficient CH4-CO-OH (ECCOH) Module for 3D Model Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elshorbany, Yasin F.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Strode, Sarah A.; Wang, James S.; Kouatchou, Jules

2015-01-01

We present the Efficient CH4-CO-OH Module (ECCOH) that allows for the simulation of the methane, carbon monoxide and hydroxyl radical (CH4-CO-OH cycle, within a chemistry climate model, carbon cycle model, or earth system model. The computational efficiency of the module allows many multi-decadal, sensitivity simulations of the CH4-CO-OH cycle, which primarily determines the global tropospheric oxidizing capacity. This capability is important for capturing the nonlinear feedbacks of the CH4-CO-OH system and understanding the perturbations to relatively long-lived methane and the concomitant impacts on climate. We implemented the ECCOH module into the NASA GEOS-5 Atmospheric Global Circulation Model (AGCM), performed multiple sensitivity simulations of the CH4-CO-OH system over two decades, and evaluated the model output with surface and satellite datasets of methane and CO. The favorable comparison of output from the ECCOH module (as configured in the GEOS-5 AGCM) with observations demonstrates the fidelity of the module for use in scientific research.

Global Warming in Geologic Time

ScienceCinema

Archer, David

2018-01-01

The notion is pervasive in the climate science community and in the public at large that the climate impacts of fossil fuel CO2 release will only persist for a few centuries. This conclusion has no basis in theory or models of the atmosphere / ocean carbon cycle, which we review here. The largest fraction of the CO2 recovery will take place on time scales of centuries, as CO2 invades the ocean, but a significant fraction of the fossil fuel CO2, ranging in published models in the literature from 20-60%, remains airborne for a thousand years or longer. Ultimate recovery takes place on time scales of hundreds of thousands of years, a geologic longevity typically associated in public perceptions with nuclear waste. The glacial / interglacial climate cycles demonstrate that ice sheets and sea level respond dramatically to millennial-timescale changes in climate forcing. There are also potential positive feedbacks in the carbon cycle, including methane hydrates in the ocean, and peat frozen in permafrost, that are most sensitive to the long tail of the fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere.

Terrestrial and marine perspectives on modeling organic matter degradation pathways.

PubMed

Burd, Adrian B; Frey, Serita; Cabre, Anna; Ito, Takamitsu; Levine, Naomi M; Lønborg, Christian; Long, Matthew; Mauritz, Marguerite; Thomas, R Quinn; Stephens, Brandon M; Vanwalleghem, Tom; Zeng, Ning

2016-01-01

Organic matter (OM) plays a major role in both terrestrial and oceanic biogeochemical cycles. The amount of carbon stored in these systems is far greater than that of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) in the atmosphere, and annual fluxes of CO2 from these pools to the atmosphere exceed those from fossil fuel combustion. Understanding the processes that determine the fate of detrital material is important for predicting the effects that climate change will have on feedbacks to the global carbon cycle. However, Earth System Models (ESMs) typically utilize very simple formulations of processes affecting the mineralization and storage of detrital OM. Recent changes in our view of the nature of this material and the factors controlling its transformation have yet to find their way into models. In this review, we highlight the current understanding of the role and cycling of detrital OM in terrestrial and marine systems and examine how this pool of material is represented in ESMs. We include a discussion of the different mineralization pathways available as organic matter moves from soils, through inland waters to coastal systems and ultimately into open ocean environments. We argue that there is strong commonality between aspects of OM transformation in both terrestrial and marine systems and that our respective scientific communities would benefit from closer collaboration. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The role of climate in the global patterns of ecosystem carbon turnover rates - contrasts between data and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalhais, N.; Forkel, M.; Khomik, M.; Bellarby, J.; Migliavacca, M.; Thurner, M.; Beer, C.; Jung, M.; Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; Saatchi, S. S.; Santoro, M.; Reichstein, M.

2012-12-01

The turnover rates of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems and their sensitivity to climate are instrumental properties for diagnosing the interannual variability and forecasting trends of biogeochemical processes and carbon-cycle-climate feedbacks. We propose to globally look at the spatial distribution of turnover rates of carbon to explore the association between bioclimatic regimes and the rates at which carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. Based on data-driven approaches of ecosystem carbon fluxes and data-based estimates of ecosystem carbon stocks it is possible to build fully observationally supported diagnostics. These data driven diagnostics support the benchmarking of CMIP5 model outputs (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) with observationally based estimates. The models' performance is addressed by confronting spatial patterns of carbon fluxes and stocks with data, as well as the global and regional sensitivities of turnover rates to climate. Our results show strong latitudinal gradients globally, mostly controlled by temperature, which are not always paralleled by CMIP5 simulations. In northern colder regions is also where the largest difference in temperature sensitivity between models and data occurs. Interestingly, there seem to be two different statistical populations in the data (some with high, others with low apparent temperature sensitivity of carbon turnover rates), where the different models only seem to describe either one or the other population. Additionally, the comparisons within bioclimatic classes can even show opposite patterns between turnover rates and temperature in water limited regions. Overall, our analysis emphasizes the role of finding patterns and intrinsic properties instead of plain magnitudes of fluxes for diagnosing the sensitivities of terrestrial biogeochemical cycles to climate. Further, our regional analysis suggests a significant gap in addressing the partial influence of water in the ecosystem carbon turnover rates especially in very cold or water limited regions.

Climate-induced tree mortality: Earth system consequences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, Henry D.; Macalady, Alison K.; Breshears, David D.; Allen, Craig D.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Saleska, Scott; Huxman, Travis E.; McDowell, Nathan G.

2010-01-01

One of the greatest uncertainties in global environmental change is predicting changes in feedbacks between the biosphere and the Earth system. Terrestrial ecosystems and, in particular, forests exert strong controls on the global carbon cycle and influence regional hydrology and climatology directly through water and surface energy budgets [Bonan, 2008; Chapin et al., 2008].According to new research, tree mortality associated with elevated temperatures and drought has the potential to rapidly alter forest ecosystems, potentially affecting feedbacks to the Earth system [Allen et al., 2010]. Several lines of recent research demonstrate how tree mortality rates in forests may be sensitive to climate change—particularly warming and drying. This emerging consequence of global change has important effects on Earth system processes (Figure 1).

Clustering in Cell Cycle Dynamics with General Response/Signaling Feedback

PubMed Central

Young, Todd R.; Fernandez, Bastien; Buckalew, Richard; Moses, Gregory; Boczko, Erik M.

2011-01-01

Motivated by experimental and theoretical work on autonomous oscillations in yeast, we analyze ordinary differential equations models of large populations of cells with cell-cycle dependent feedback. We assume a particular type of feedback that we call Responsive/Signaling (RS), but do not specify a functional form of the feedback. We study the dynamics and emergent behaviour of solutions, particularly temporal clustering and stability of clustered solutions. We establish the existence of certain periodic clustered solutions as well as “uniform” solutions and add to the evidence that cell-cycle dependent feedback robustly leads to cell-cycle clustering. We highlight the fundamental differences in dynamics between systems with negative and positive feedback. For positive feedback systems the most important mechanism seems to be the stability of individual isolated clusters. On the other hand we find that in negative feedback systems, clusters must interact with each other to reinforce coherence. We conclude from various details of the mathematical analysis that negative feedback is most consistent with observations in yeast experiments. PMID:22001733

Variation in phenolic root exudates and rhizosphere carbon cycling among tree species in temperate forest ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zwetsloot, Marie; Bauerle, Taryn; Kessler, André; Wickings, Kyle

2017-04-01

Temperate forest tree species composition has been highly dynamic over the past few centuries and is expected to only further change under current climate change predictions. While aboveground changes in forest biodiversity have been widely studied, the impacts on belowground processes are far more challenging to measure. In particular, root exudation - the process through which roots release organic and inorganic compounds into the rhizosphere - has received little scientific attention yet may be the key to understanding root-facilitated carbon cycling in temperate forest ecosystems. The aim of this study was to analyze the extent by which tree species' variation in phenolic root exudate profiles influences soil carbon cycling in temperate forest ecosystems. In order to answer this question, we grew six temperate forest tree species in a greenhouse including Acer saccharum, Alnus rugosa, Fagus grandifolia, Picea abies, Pinus strobus, and Quercus rubra. To collect root exudates, trees were transferred to hydroponic growing systems for one week and then exposed to cellulose acetate strips in individual 800 mL jars with a sterile solution for 24 hours. We analyzed the methanol-extracted root exudates for phenolic composition with high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and determined species differences in phenolic abundance, diversity and compound classes. This information was used to design the subsequent soil incubation study in which we tested the effect of different phenolic compound classes on rhizosphere carbon cycling using potassium hydroxide (KOH) traps to capture soil CO2 emissions. Our findings show that tree species show high variation in phenolic root exudate patterns and that these differences can significantly influence soil CO2 fluxes. These results stress the importance of linking belowground plant traits to ecosystem functioning. Moreover, this study highlights the need for research on root and rhizosphere processes in order to improve terrestrial carbon cycling models and estimate forest ecosystem feedbacks to climate change.

Terrestrial gross carbon dioxide uptake: global distribution and covariation with climate.

PubMed

Beer, Christian; Reichstein, Markus; Tomelleri, Enrico; Ciais, Philippe; Jung, Martin; Carvalhais, Nuno; Rödenbeck, Christian; Arain, M Altaf; Baldocchi, Dennis; Bonan, Gordon B; Bondeau, Alberte; Cescatti, Alessandro; Lasslop, Gitta; Lindroth, Anders; Lomas, Mark; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Margolis, Hank; Oleson, Keith W; Roupsard, Olivier; Veenendaal, Elmar; Viovy, Nicolas; Williams, Christopher; Woodward, F Ian; Papale, Dario

2010-08-13

Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is the largest global CO(2) flux driving several ecosystem functions. We provide an observation-based estimate of this flux at 123 +/- 8 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year(-1)) using eddy covariance flux data and various diagnostic models. Tropical forests and savannahs account for 60%. GPP over 40% of the vegetated land is associated with precipitation. State-of-the-art process-oriented biosphere models used for climate predictions exhibit a large between-model variation of GPP's latitudinal patterns and show higher spatial correlations between GPP and precipitation, suggesting the existence of missing processes or feedback mechanisms which attenuate the vegetation response to climate. Our estimates of spatially distributed GPP and its covariation with climate can help improve coupled climate-carbon cycle process models.

Ectomycorrhizal fungi slow soil carbon cycling.

PubMed

Averill, Colin; Hawkes, Christine V

2016-08-01

Respiration of soil organic carbon is one of the largest fluxes of CO2 on earth. Understanding the processes that regulate soil respiration is critical for predicting future climate. Recent work has suggested that soil carbon respiration may be reduced by competition for nitrogen between symbiotic ectomycorrhizal fungi that associate with plant roots and free-living microbial decomposers, which is consistent with increased soil carbon storage in ectomycorrhizal ecosystems globally. However, experimental tests of the mycorrhizal competition hypothesis are lacking. Here we show that ectomycorrhizal roots and hyphae decrease soil carbon respiration rates by up to 67% under field conditions in two separate field exclusion experiments, and this likely occurs via competition for soil nitrogen, an effect larger than 2 °C soil warming. These findings support mycorrhizal competition for nitrogen as an independent driver of soil carbon balance and demonstrate the need to understand microbial community interactions to predict ecosystem feedbacks to global climate. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Gas Transfer Controls Carbon Limitation During Biomass Production by Marine Microalgae.

PubMed

Tamburic, Bojan; Evenhuis, Christian R; Suggett, David J; Larkum, Anthony W D; Raven, John A; Ralph, Peter J

2015-08-24

This study presents the first in-depth analysis of CO2 limitation on the biomass productivity of the biofuel candidate marine microalga Nannochloropsis oculata. Net photosynthesis decreased by 60% from 125 to 50 μmol O2 L(-1)h(-1) over a 12 h light cycle as a direct result of carbon limitation. Continuous dissolved O2 and pH measurements were used to develop a detailed diurnal mechanism for the interaction between photosynthesis, gas exchange and carbonate chemistry in the photo-bioreactor. Gas exchange determined the degree of carbon limitation experienced by the algae. Carbon limitation was confirmed by delivering more CO2 , which increased net photosynthesis back to its steady-state maximum. This study highlights the importance of maintaining replete carbon concentrations in photo-bioreactors and other culturing facilities, either by constant pH operation or preferably by designing a feedback loop based on the dissolved O2 concentration. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Soil and vegetation parameter uncertainty on future terrestrial carbon sinks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kothavala, Z.; Felzer, B. S.

2013-12-01

We examine the role of the terrestrial carbon cycle in a changing climate at the centennial scale using an intermediate complexity Earth system climate model that includes the effects of dynamic vegetation and the global carbon cycle. We present a series of ensemble simulations to evaluate the sensitivity of simulated terrestrial carbon sinks to three key model parameters: (a) The temperature dependence of soil carbon decomposition, (b) the upper temperature limits on the rate of photosynthesis, and (c) the nitrogen limitation of the maximum rate of carboxylation of Rubisco. We integrated the model in fully coupled mode for a 1200-year spin-up period, followed by a 300-year transient simulation starting at year 1800. Ensemble simulations were conducted varying each parameter individually and in combination with other variables. The results of the transient simulations show that terrestrial carbon uptake is very sensitive to the choice of model parameters. Changes in net primary productivity were most sensitive to the upper temperature limit on the rate of photosynthesis, which also had a dominant effect on overall land carbon trends; this is consistent with previous research that has shown the importance of climatic suppression of photosynthesis as a driver of carbon-climate feedbacks. Soil carbon generally decreased with increasing temperature, though the magnitude of this trend depends on both the net primary productivity changes and the temperature dependence of soil carbon decomposition. Vegetation carbon increased in some simulations, but this was not consistent across all configurations of model parameters. Comparing to global carbon budget observations, we identify the subset of model parameters which are consistent with observed carbon sinks; this serves to narrow considerably the future model projections of terrestrial carbon sink changes in comparison with the full model ensemble.

Increasing Carbon Loss from Snow-Scoured Alpine Tundra in the Colorado Rocky Mountains: An Indicator of Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowles, J. F.; Blanken, P.; Williams, M. W.; Lawrence, C. R.

2015-12-01

We used the eddy covariance method to continuously measure the net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide for seven years from a snow-scoured alpine tundra meadow on Niwot Ridge in Colorado, USA that may be underlain by sporadic permafrost. On average, the alpine tundra was a net annual source of 232 g C m-2 to the atmosphere, and the source strength of this ecosystem increased over the length of the seven year period due to both reduced carbon uptake during the growing season and increased respiration throughout the winter. To constrain the contribution of permafrost degradation to observed carbon emissions, we also measured the radiocarbon content of actively cycling, occluded, and mineral soil carbon pools across a meso-scale soil moisture and (possible) permafrost gradient within this meadow, as well as the seasonal radiocarbon content of soil respiration. These data suggest that wintertime soil respiration is limited to patches of wet meadow tundra that may be associated with permafrost. Furthermore, soil respiration from one of these locations indicates preferential turnover of a relatively slow cycling carbon pool during the winter. Given that summer air temperatures and positive degree days have been increasing on Niwot Ridge since the middle of the 20th century, this research suggests that an alpine tundra permafrost-respiration feedback to climate change, similar to that observed in arctic tundra ecosystems, may be currently underway.

The importance of terrestrial weathering for climate system modelling on extended timescales: a study with the UVic ESCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brault, Marc-Olivier; Matthews, Damon; Mysak, Lawrence

2016-04-01

The chemical erosion of carbonate and silicate rocks is a key process in the global carbon cycle and, through its coupling with calcium carbonate deposition in the ocean, is the primary sink of carbon on geologic timescales. The dynamic interdependence of terrestrial weathering rates with atmospheric temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations is crucial to the regulation of Earth's climate over multi-millennial timescales. However any attempts to develop a modeling context for terrestrial weathering as part of a dynamic climate system are limited, mostly because of the difficulty in adapting the multi-millennial timescales of the implied negative feedback mechanism with those of the atmosphere and ocean. Much of the earlier work on this topic is therefore based on box-model approaches, abandoning spatial variability for the sake of computational efficiency and the possibility to investigate the impact of weathering on climate change over time frames much longer than those allowed by traditional climate system models. As a result we still have but a rudimentary understanding of the chemical weathering feedback mechanism and its effects on ocean biogeochemistry and atmospheric CO2. Here, we introduce a spatially-explicit, rock weathering model into the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). We use a land map which takes into account a number of different rock lithologies, changes in sea level, as well as an empirical model of the temperature and NPP dependency of weathering rates for the different rock types. We apply this new model to the last deglacial period (c. 21000BP to 13000BP) as well as a future climate change scenario (c. 1800AD to 6000AD+), comparing the results of our 2-D version of the weathering feedback mechanism to simulations using only the box-model parameterizations of Meissner et al. [2012]. These simulations reveal the importance of two-dimensional factors (i.e., changes in sea level and rock type distribution) in the role of the weathering negative feedback mechanism on multi-millennial timescales.

The role of ecosystem memory in predicting inter-annual variations of the tropical carbon balance.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloom, A. A.; Liu, J.; Bowman, K. W.; Konings, A. G.; Saatchi, S.; Worden, J. R.; Worden, H. M.; Jiang, Z.; Parazoo, N.; Williams, M. D.; Schimel, D.

2017-12-01

Understanding the trajectory of the tropical carbon balance remains challenging, in part due to large uncertainties in the integrated response of carbon cycle processes to climate variability. Satellite observations atmospheric CO2 from GOSAT and OCO-2, together with ancillary satellite measurements, provide crucial constraints on continental-scale terrestrial carbon fluxes. However, an integrated understanding of both climate forcings and legacy effects (or "ecosystem memory") on the terrestrial carbon balance is ultimately needed to reduce uncertainty on its future trajectory. Here we use the CARbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) diagnostic model-data fusion approach - constrained by an array of C cycle satellite surface observations, including MODIS leaf area, biomass, GOSAT solar-induced fluorescence, as well as "top-down" atmospheric inversion estimates of CO2 and CO surface fluxes from the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) - to constrain and predict spatially-explicit tropical carbon state variables during 2010-2015. We find that the combined assimilation of land surface and atmospheric datasets places key constraints on the temperature sensitivity and first order carbon-water feedbacks throughout the tropics and combustion factors within biomass burning regions. By varying the duration of the assimilation period, we find that the prediction skill on inter-annual net biospheric exchange is primarily limited by record length rather than model structure and process representation. We show that across all tropical biomes, quantitative knowledge of memory effects - which account for 30-50% of interannual variations across the tropics - is critical for understanding and ultimately predicting the inter-annual tropical carbon balance.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. We show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks inmore » energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We also find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Furthermore, the feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated here are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.« less

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; di Vittorio, Alan V.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Chini, Louise; Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, Jae; Thomson, Allison; Truesdale, John; Craig, Anthony; Branstetter, Marcia L.; Hurtt, George

2017-07-01

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical data sets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy-economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns and socio-economic development trajectories. Here we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drive significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land use and carbon cycle projections for the twenty-first century. We find that exposure of human-appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid-range forcing scenario. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system--demonstrated here--are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy-economic models to ESMs used to date.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

DOE PAGES

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; ...

2017-06-12

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. We show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks inmore » energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We also find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Furthermore, the feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated here are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.« less

The North American Energy System: Chapter 3 of SOCCR-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurney, K. R.; Marcotullio, P. J.; McGlynn, E.; Bruhwiler, L.; Davis, K. J.; Davis, S. J.; Engel-Cox, J.; Field, J.; Gately, C.; Kammen, D. M.; McMahon, J.; Morrow, W.; Torrie, R.

2017-12-01

North America (Canada, Mexico and the United States), has a large and complex energy system, which in this case includes the extraction and conversion of primary energy sources and their storage, transmission, distribution and ultimate end use in the building, transportation and industrial sectors. The presentation assesses the contribution of this energy system to the carbon cycle. The assessment includes the identification of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use in the different end use, changes over the past 10 years (since the last SOCCR) and the drivers of change. The assessment focuses on our understanding of the energy trends and system feedback dynamics, key drivers of change as a basis for carbon management. The energy systems' carbon emissions from the North American system are placed in global context and a review of scenarios into the future emissions levels, which demonstrate the requirements for de-carbonization in the medium and longer term.

Constraining the climate and ocean pH of the early Earth with a geological carbon cycle model.

PubMed

Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Arney, Giada N; Catling, David C

2018-04-17

The early Earth's environment is controversial. Climatic estimates range from hot to glacial, and inferred marine pH spans strongly alkaline to acidic. Better understanding of early climate and ocean chemistry would improve our knowledge of the origin of life and its coevolution with the environment. Here, we use a geological carbon cycle model with ocean chemistry to calculate self-consistent histories of climate and ocean pH. Our carbon cycle model includes an empirically justified temperature and pH dependence of seafloor weathering, allowing the relative importance of continental and seafloor weathering to be evaluated. We find that the Archean climate was likely temperate (0-50 °C) due to the combined negative feedbacks of continental and seafloor weathering. Ocean pH evolves monotonically from [Formula: see text] (2σ) at 4.0 Ga to [Formula: see text] (2σ) at the Archean-Proterozoic boundary, and to [Formula: see text] (2σ) at the Proterozoic-Phanerozoic boundary. This evolution is driven by the secular decline of pCO 2 , which in turn is a consequence of increasing solar luminosity, but is moderated by carbonate alkalinity delivered from continental and seafloor weathering. Archean seafloor weathering may have been a comparable carbon sink to continental weathering, but is less dominant than previously assumed, and would not have induced global glaciation. We show how these conclusions are robust to a wide range of scenarios for continental growth, internal heat flow evolution and outgassing history, greenhouse gas abundances, and changes in the biotic enhancement of weathering. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Linking ecosystem scale vegetation change to shifts in carbon and water cycling: the consequences of widespread piñon mortality in the Southwest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Litvak, Marcy Ellen

2012-10-01

The southwestern United States experienced an extended drought from 1999-2002 which led to widespread coniferous tree mortality. Piñon-juniper (PJ) woodlands, which occupy 24 million ha throughout the Southwest, were extremely vulnerable to this drought. An abrupt die-off of 40 to 95% of piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and 2-25% of juniper (Juniperus monosperma) across 1.5 million ha triggered rapid and extensive changes in the structure of PJ woodlands with potentially large, yet unknown, consequences for ecosystem services and feedbacks between the carbon cycle and climate system. Given the spatial extent of PJ woodlands (3rd largest biome in the US) and climaticmore » predictions of increased frequency and intensity of drought in the region, it is crucial to understand the consequences of these disturbances on regional carbon and energy dynamics, biogeochemical processes and atmospheric CO2. The overall objective of our research was to quantify what impact widespread mortality of piñon trees has for carbon and water cycling in PJ woodlands. Our specific objectives for this proposal were: 1) Quantify the carbon, water and energy exchange trajectory after mortality in PJ woodlands; 2) Determine the mechanisms controlling the response and recovery of ecosystem production and respiration processes following large-scale piñon mortality; 3) Use the relationships we measure between ecosystem structure and function PJ woodlands recover from mortality to scale the results of our study up to the regional scale.« less

Microbial models with data-driven parameters predict stronger soil carbon responses to climate change.

PubMed

Hararuk, Oleksandra; Smith, Matthew J; Luo, Yiqi

2015-06-01

Long-term carbon (C) cycle feedbacks to climate depend on the future dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC). Current models show low predictive accuracy at simulating contemporary SOC pools, which can be improved through parameter estimation. However, major uncertainty remains in global soil responses to climate change, particularly uncertainty in how the activity of soil microbial communities will respond. To date, the role of microbes in SOC dynamics has been implicitly described by decay rate constants in most conventional global carbon cycle models. Explicitly including microbial biomass dynamics into C cycle model formulations has shown potential to improve model predictive performance when assessed against global SOC databases. This study aimed to data-constrained parameters of two soil microbial models, evaluate the improvements in performance of those calibrated models in predicting contemporary carbon stocks, and compare the SOC responses to climate change and their uncertainties between microbial and conventional models. Microbial models with calibrated parameters explained 51% of variability in the observed total SOC, whereas a calibrated conventional model explained 41%. The microbial models, when forced with climate and soil carbon input predictions from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), produced stronger soil C responses to 95 years of climate change than any of the 11 CMIP5 models. The calibrated microbial models predicted between 8% (2-pool model) and 11% (4-pool model) soil C losses compared with CMIP5 model projections which ranged from a 7% loss to a 22.6% gain. Lastly, we observed unrealistic oscillatory SOC dynamics in the 2-pool microbial model. The 4-pool model also produced oscillations, but they were less prominent and could be avoided, depending on the parameter values. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ocean acidification: Towards a better understanding of calcite dissolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilhelmus, Monica M.; Adkins, Jess; Menemenlis, Dimitris

2016-11-01

The drastic increase of anthropogenic CO2 emissions over the past two centuries has altered the chemical structure of the ocean, acidifying upper ocean waters. The net impact of this pH decrease on marine ecosystems is still unclear, given the unprecedented rate at which CO2 is being released into the atmosphere. As part of the carbon cycle, calcium carbonate dissolution in sediments neutralizes CO2: phytoplankton at the surface produce carbonate minerals, which sink and reach the seafloor after the organisms die. On time scales of thousands of years, the calcium carbonate in these shells ultimately reacts with CO2 in seawater. Research in this field has been extensive; nevertheless, the dissolution rate law, the impact of boundary layer transport, and the feedback with the global ocean carbon cycle remain controversial. Here, we (i) develop a comprehensive numerical framework via 1D modeling of carbonate dissolution in sediments, (ii) approximate its impact on water column properties by implementing a polynomial approximation to the system's response into a global ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model (OBGCM), and (iii) examine the OBGCM sensitivity response to different formulations of sediment boundary layer properties. We find that, even though the burial equilibration time scales of calcium carbonate are in the order of thousands of years, the formulation of a bottom sediment model along with an improved description of the dissolution rate law can have consequences on multi-year to decadal time scales.

Nitrogen feedbacks increase future terrestrial ecosystem carbon uptake in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wårlind, D.; Smith, B.; Hickler, T.; Arneth, A.

2014-11-01

Recently a considerable amount of effort has been put into quantifying how interactions of the carbon and nitrogen cycle affect future terrestrial carbon sinks. Dynamic vegetation models, representing the nitrogen cycle with varying degree of complexity, have shown diverging constraints of nitrogen dynamics on future carbon sequestration. In this study, we use LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic vegetation model employing a detailed individual- and patch-based representation of vegetation dynamics, to evaluate how population dynamics and resource competition between plant functional types, combined with nitrogen dynamics, have influenced the terrestrial carbon storage in the past and to investigate how terrestrial carbon and nitrogen dynamics might change in the future (1850 to 2100; one representative "business-as-usual" climate scenario). Single-factor model experiments of CO2 fertilisation and climate change show generally similar directions of the responses of C-N interactions, compared to the C-only version of the model as documented in previous studies using other global models. Under an RCP 8.5 scenario, nitrogen limitation suppresses potential CO2 fertilisation, reducing the cumulative net ecosystem carbon uptake between 1850 and 2100 by 61%, and soil warming-induced increase in nitrogen mineralisation reduces terrestrial carbon loss by 31%. When environmental changes are considered conjointly, carbon sequestration is limited by nitrogen dynamics up to the present. However, during the 21st century, nitrogen dynamics induce a net increase in carbon sequestration, resulting in an overall larger carbon uptake of 17% over the full period. This contrasts with previous results with other global models that have shown an 8 to 37% decrease in carbon uptake relative to modern baseline conditions. Implications for the plausibility of earlier projections of future terrestrial C dynamics based on C-only models are discussed.

A geochemical record of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) during the late Paleozoic Ice Age: The relationship between atmospheric pCO2, climate and fire.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hren, M. T.; Harris, G.; Montanez, I. P.; DiMichele, W.; Eley, Y.; White, J. D.; Wilson, J. P.; McElwain, J.; Poulsen, C. J.

2017-12-01

The late Paleozoic Ice Age (LPIA) represents a dynamic period of widespread glacial/interglacial cycling as the earth underwent a major transition from an icehouse to greenhouse climate. During this transition period, pCO2 is shown to have varied by several hundred ppm and within the predicted range for anthropogenic change. Glacial/interglacial changes in atmospheric pCO2 during this time are associated with restructuring of tropical forests and carbon cycle dynamics. At present however, there is considerable debate over the potential hydrologic and fire-frequency feedbacks associated with this climatic variability. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are produced from the incomplete combustion of organic matter and are shown to be preserved over hundreds of millions of years. Thus, these organic compounds provide a potential record of the feedbacks between global biogeochemical systems and fire. We analyzed sedimentary organic matter from the Illinois Basin spanning the late Carboniferous glacial-interglacial cycles to assess the evolution of fire during this period. Our data show a decrease in the overall abundance of high molecular weight PAHs (HMW) from 312 to 304 Myr with significant variability that is coincident with the general timing of pCO2 cycling. Decreasing PAH abundance is also coincident with a proposed long-term change in pO2 and may reflect the influence of atmospheric oxygen in regulating fire occurrence and hydrologic cycling in tropical ecosystems in the late Carboniferous.

Emiliania huxleyi increases calcification but not expression of calcification-related genes in long-term exposure to elevated temperature and pCO2

PubMed Central

Benner, Ina; Diner, Rachel E.; Lefebvre, Stephane C.; Li, Dian; Komada, Tomoko; Carpenter, Edward J.; Stillman, Jonathon H.

2013-01-01

Increased atmospheric pCO2 is expected to render future oceans warmer and more acidic than they are at present. Calcifying organisms such as coccolithophores that fix and export carbon into the deep sea provide feedbacks to increasing atmospheric pCO2. Acclimation experiments suggest negative effects of warming and acidification on coccolithophore calcification, but the ability of these organisms to adapt to future environmental conditions is not well understood. Here, we tested the combined effect of pCO2 and temperature on the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi over more than 700 generations. Cells increased inorganic carbon content and calcification rate under warm and acidified conditions compared with ambient conditions, whereas organic carbon content and primary production did not show any change. In contrast to findings from short-term experiments, our results suggest that long-term acclimation or adaptation could change, or even reverse, negative calcification responses in E. huxleyi and its feedback to the global carbon cycle. Genome-wide profiles of gene expression using RNA-seq revealed that genes thought to be essential for calcification are not those that are most strongly differentially expressed under long-term exposure to future ocean conditions. Rather, differentially expressed genes observed here represent new targets to study responses to ocean acidification and warming. PMID:23980248

Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vichi, Marcello; Manzini, Elisa; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Alessandri, Andrea; Patara, Lavinia; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio

2011-11-01

Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric "target" concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the projected concentration pathways of aerosol in the next decades control the evolution of surface ocean biogeochemistry in the second half of this century more than the specific pathways of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Chapter 1. Impacts of the oceans on climate change.

PubMed

Reid, Philip C; Fischer, Astrid C; Lewis-Brown, Emily; Meredith, Michael P; Sparrow, Mike; Andersson, Andreas J; Antia, Avan; Bates, Nicholas R; Bathmann, Ulrich; Beaugrand, Gregory; Brix, Holger; Dye, Stephen; Edwards, Martin; Furevik, Tore; Gangstø, Reidun; Hátún, Hjálmar; Hopcroft, Russell R; Kendall, Mike; Kasten, Sabine; Keeling, Ralph; Le Quéré, Corinne; Mackenzie, Fred T; Malin, Gill; Mauritzen, Cecilie; Olafsson, Jón; Paull, Charlie; Rignot, Eric; Shimada, Koji; Vogt, Meike; Wallace, Craig; Wang, Zhaomin; Washington, Richard

2009-01-01

The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea-level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up approximately 40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean 'carbon pumps' (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice-ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated.

The Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue Simulated by IPCC AR4 Coupled GCMs: Upper Ocean Heat Budget and Feedback Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-15

ET AL .: THE PACIFIC COLD TONGUE BIAS ANALYSIS C05024 circulation, which intensifies the surface easterly winds over the Pacific Basin, further...productivity, and in carbon cycling since it is the major oceanic source of C02 for the atmosphere [Field et al , 1998; Calvo et al , 2011]. Large SST anomalies...used for climate predictions and projec- tions [Neelin et al , 1992; Mechoso et al , 1995; Delecluse et al , 1998; Laufet al , 2001; Davey

Effect of antecedent terrestrial land-use on C and N cycling in created wetlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCalley, C. K.; Al Graiti, T.; Williams, T.; Huang, S.; McGowan, M. B.; Eddingsaas, N. C.; Tyler, A. C.

2017-12-01

Land-use legacies and their interaction with both management actions and climate variability has a poorly characterized impact on the development of ecosystem functions and the trajectory of climate-carbon feedbacks. The complex structure-function relationships in wetlands foster delivery of valuable, climate sensitive, ecosystem services (carbon sequestration, nutrient removal, flood control, etc.) but also make them susceptible to colonization by invasive plants and lead to emission of key greenhouse gases. This project uses created wetland ecosystems as a model to understand how heterogeneity in antecedent conditions interacts with management options to create unique structure-function scenarios and a range of climate feedback outcomes. We utilized ongoing experiments in created wetlands that differ in antecedent conditions (crop agriculture, livestock grazing) and investigated how management options (invasive species removal, organic matter addition) interact with legacy impacts to promote key ecosystem functions, including greenhouse gas emissions, carbon sequestration, denitrification and plant biodiversity. The effects of antecedent land-use on soil chemistry, coupled with hydrologic patterns resulted in wetlands with divergent C and N dynamics despite their similar creation history. Additionally, the occurrence of extreme weather events (drought and excessive flooding) during the study period highlighted the overarching role that increased climate variability will play in determining key ecosystem processes in wetlands. Responses to management were linked to hydro-period: while organic matter addition successfully increased soil organic matter to more closely replicate natural systems at all sites, it had the largest impact on C and N cycling when soils were saturated. Overall, environmental conditions that promoted saturated soils, both those shaped by human activities or climate extremes, enhanced primary productivity, nutrient removal and greenhouse gas production as well as decreased soil respiration.

Nitrogen and Phosphorus Plant Uptake During Periods with no Photosynthesis Accounts for About Half of Global Annual Uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, W. J.; Zhu, Q.; Tang, J.

2017-12-01

Uncertainties in current Earth System Model (ESM) predictions of terrestrial carbon-climate feedbacks over the 21st century are as large as, or larger than, any other reported natural system uncertainties. Soil Organic Matter (SOM) decomposition and photosynthesis, the dominant fluxes in this regard, are tightly linked through nutrient availability, and the recent Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) used for climate change assessment had no credible representations of these constraints. In response, many ESM land models (ESMLMs) have developed dynamic and coupled soil and plant nutrient cycles. Here we quantify terrestrial carbon cycle impacts from well-known observed plant nutrient uptake mechanisms ignored in most current ESMLMs. In particular, we estimate the global role of plant root nutrient competition with microbes and abiotic process at night and during the non-growing season using the ACME land model (ALMv1-ECA-CNP) that explicitly represents these dynamics. We first demonstrate that short-term nutrient uptake dynamics and competition between plants and microbes are accurately predicted by the model compared to 15N and 33P isotopic tracer measurements from more than 20 sites. We then show that global nighttime and non-growing season nitrogen and phosphorus uptake accounts for 46 and 45%, respectively, of annual uptake, with large latitudinal variation. Model experiments show that ignoring these plant uptake periods leads to large positive biases in annual N leaching (globally 58%) and N2O emissions (globally 68%). Biases these large will affect modeled carbon cycle dynamics over time, and lead to predictions of ecosystems that have overly open nutrient cycles and therefore lower capacity to sequester carbon.

Simulated Impact of Glacial Runoff on CO2 Uptake in the Gulf of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilcher, Darren J.; Siedlecki, Samantha A.; Hermann, Albert J.; Coyle, Kenneth O.; Mathis, Jeremy T.; Evans, Wiley

2018-01-01

The Gulf of Alaska (GOA) receives substantial summer freshwater runoff from glacial meltwater. The alkalinity of this runoff is highly dependent on the glacial source and can modify the coastal carbon cycle. We use a regional ocean biogeochemical model to simulate CO2 uptake in the GOA under different alkalinity-loading scenarios. The GOA is identified as a current net sink of carbon, though low-alkalinity tidewater glacial runoff suppresses summer coastal carbon uptake. Our model shows that increasing the alkalinity generates an increase in annual CO2 uptake of 1.9-2.7 TgC/yr. This transition is comparable to a projected change in glacial runoff composition (i.e., from tidewater to land-terminating) due to continued climate warming. Our results demonstrate an important local carbon-climate feedback that can significantly increase coastal carbon uptake via enhanced air-sea exchange, with potential implications to the coastal ecosystems in glaciated areas around the world.

Quantifying carbon footprint reduction opportunities for U.S. households and communities.

PubMed

Jones, Christopher M; Kammen, Daniel M

2011-05-01

Carbon management is of increasing interest to individuals, households, and communities. In order to effectively assess and manage their climate impacts, individuals need information on the financial and greenhouse gas benefits of effective mitigation opportunities. We use consumption-based life cycle accounting techniques to quantify the carbon footprints of typical U.S. households in 28 cities for 6 household sizes and 12 income brackets. The model includes emissions embodied in transportation, energy, water, waste, food, goods, and services. We further quantify greenhouse gas and financial savings from 13 potential mitigation actions across all household types. The model suggests that the size and composition of carbon footprints vary dramatically between geographic regions and within regions based on basic demographic characteristics. Despite these differences, large cash-positive carbon footprint reductions are evident across all household types and locations; however, realizing this potential may require tailoring policies and programs to different population segments with very different carbon footprint profiles. The results of this model have been incorporated into an open access online carbon footprint management tool designed to enable behavior change at the household level through personalized feedback.

Assessing the impact of changes in climate and CO2 on potential carbon sequestration in agricultural soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, Atul K.; West, Tristram O.; Yang, Xiaojuan; Post, Wilfred M.

2005-10-01

Changes in soil management can potentially increase the accumulation of soil organic carbon (SOC), thereby sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere. However, the amount of carbon sequestered in soils can be augmented or lessened due to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. The purpose of this paper is to study the influence of climate and CO2 feedbacks on soil carbon sequestration using a terrestrial carbon cycle model. Model simulations consist of observed adoption rates of no-tillage practices on croplands in the U.S. and Canada between 1981-2000. Model results indicate potential sequestration rates between 0.4-0.6 MgC/ha/yr in the Midwestern U.S. with decreasing rates towards the western, dryer regions of the U.S. It is estimated here that changes in climate and CO2 between 1981-2000 could be responsible for an additional soil carbon sequestration of 42 Tg. This is 5% of the soil carbon estimated to be potentially sequestered as the result of conversion to no-tillage in the U.S. and Canada.

Empirical estimates to reduce modeling uncertainties of soil organic carbon in permafrost regions: a review of recent progress and remaining challenges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mishra, U.; Jastrow, J.D.; Matamala, R.; Hugelius, G.; Koven, C.D.; Harden, Jennifer W.; Ping, S.L.; Michaelson, G.J.; Fan, Z.; Miller, R.M.; McGuire, A.D.; Tarnocai, C.; Kuhry, P.; Riley, W.J.; Schaefer, K.; Schuur, E.A.G.; Jorgenson, M.T.; Hinzman, L.D.

2013-01-01

The vast amount of organic carbon (OC) stored in soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region is a potentially vulnerable component of the global carbon cycle. However, estimates of the quantity, decomposability, and combustibility of OC contained in permafrost-region soils remain highly uncertain, thereby limiting our ability to predict the release of greenhouse gases due to permafrost thawing. Substantial differences exist between empirical and modeling estimates of the quantity and distribution of permafrost-region soil OC, which contribute to large uncertainties in predictions of carbon–climate feedbacks under future warming. Here, we identify research challenges that constrain current assessments of the distribution and potential decomposability of soil OC stocks in the northern permafrost region and suggest priorities for future empirical and modeling studies to address these challenges.

Uncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions

DOE PAGES

Huntzinger, D. N.; Michalak, A. M.; Schwalm, C.; ...

2017-07-06

Terrestrial ecosystems play a vital role in regulating the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere. Understanding the factors controlling land C uptake is critical for reducing uncertainties in projections of future climate. The relative importance of changing climate, rising atmospheric CO 2, and other factors, however, remains unclear despite decades of research. Here, we use an ensemble of land models to show that models disagree on the primary driver of cumulative C uptake for 85% of vegetated land area. Disagreement is largest in model sensitivity to rising atmospheric CO 2 which shows almost twice the variability in cumulative landmore » uptake since 1901 (1 s.d. of 212.8 PgC vs. 138.5 PgC, respectively). We find that variability in CO 2 and temperature sensitivity is attributable, in part, to their compensatory effects on C uptake, whereby comparable estimates of C uptake can arise by invoking different sensitivities to key environmental conditions. Conversely, divergent estimates of C uptake can occur despite being based on the same environmental sensitivities. Together, these findings imply an important limitation to the predictability of C cycling and climate under unprecedented environmental conditions. We suggest that the carbon modeling community prioritize a probabilistic multi-model approach to generate more robust C cycle projections.« less

Uncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huntzinger, D. N.; Michalak, A. M.; Schwalm, C.

2017-07-06

Terrestrial ecosystems play a vital role in regulating the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere. Understanding the factors controlling land C uptake is critical for reducing uncertainties in projections of future climate. The relative importance of changing climate, rising atmospheric CO2, and other factors, however, remains unclear despite decades of research. Here, we use an ensemble of land models to show that models disagree on the primary driver of cumulative C uptake for 85% of vegetated land area. Disagreement is largest in model sensitivity to rising atmospheric CO2 which shows almost twice the variability in cumulative land uptake sincemore » 1901 (1 s.d. of 212.8 PgC vs. 138.5 PgC, respectively). We find that variability in CO2 and temperature sensitivity is attributable, in part, to their compensatory effects on C uptake, whereby comparable estimates of C uptake can arise by invoking different sensitivities to key environmental conditions. Conversely, divergent estimates of C uptake can occur despite being based on the same environmental sensitivities. Together, these findings imply an important limitation to the predictability of C cycling and climate under unprecedented environmental conditions. We suggest that the carbon modeling community prioritize a probabilistic multi-model approach to generate more robust C cycle projections.« less

Uncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huntzinger, D. N.; Michalak, A. M.; Schwalm, C.

Terrestrial ecosystems play a vital role in regulating the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere. Understanding the factors controlling land C uptake is critical for reducing uncertainties in projections of future climate. The relative importance of changing climate, rising atmospheric CO 2, and other factors, however, remains unclear despite decades of research. Here, we use an ensemble of land models to show that models disagree on the primary driver of cumulative C uptake for 85% of vegetated land area. Disagreement is largest in model sensitivity to rising atmospheric CO 2 which shows almost twice the variability in cumulative landmore » uptake since 1901 (1 s.d. of 212.8 PgC vs. 138.5 PgC, respectively). We find that variability in CO 2 and temperature sensitivity is attributable, in part, to their compensatory effects on C uptake, whereby comparable estimates of C uptake can arise by invoking different sensitivities to key environmental conditions. Conversely, divergent estimates of C uptake can occur despite being based on the same environmental sensitivities. Together, these findings imply an important limitation to the predictability of C cycling and climate under unprecedented environmental conditions. We suggest that the carbon modeling community prioritize a probabilistic multi-model approach to generate more robust C cycle projections.« less

Microbial Metagenomics Reveals Climate-Relevant Subsurface Biogeochemical Processes.

PubMed

Long, Philip E; Williams, Kenneth H; Hubbard, Susan S; Banfield, Jillian F

2016-08-01

Microorganisms play key roles in terrestrial system processes, including the turnover of natural organic carbon, such as leaf litter and woody debris that accumulate in soils and subsurface sediments. What has emerged from a series of recent DNA sequencing-based studies is recognition of the enormous variety of little known and previously unknown microorganisms that mediate recycling of these vast stores of buried carbon in subsoil compartments of the terrestrial system. More importantly, the genome resolution achieved in these studies has enabled association of specific members of these microbial communities with carbon compound transformations and other linked biogeochemical processes-such as the nitrogen cycle-that can impact the quality of groundwater, surface water, and atmospheric trace gas concentrations. The emerging view also emphasizes the importance of organism interactions through exchange of metabolic byproducts (e.g., within the carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur cycles) and via symbioses since many novel organisms exhibit restricted metabolic capabilities and an associated extremely small cell size. New, genome-resolved information reshapes our view of subsurface microbial communities and provides critical new inputs for advanced reactive transport models. These inputs are needed for accurate prediction of feedbacks in watershed biogeochemical functioning and their influence on the climate via the fluxes of greenhouse gases, CO2, CH4, and N2O. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Canopy nitrogen, carbon assimilation, and albedo in temperate and boreal forests: Functional relations and potential climate feedbacks

PubMed Central

Ollinger, S. V.; Richardson, A. D.; Martin, M. E.; Hollinger, D. Y.; Frolking, S. E.; Reich, P. B.; Plourde, L. C.; Katul, G. G.; Munger, J. W.; Oren, R.; Smith, M.-L.; Paw U, K. T.; Bolstad, P. V.; Cook, B. D.; Day, M. C.; Martin, T. A.; Monson, R. K.; Schmid, H. P.

2008-01-01

The availability of nitrogen represents a key constraint on carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, and it is largely in this capacity that the role of N in the Earth's climate system has been considered. Despite this, few studies have included continuous variation in plant N status as a driver of broad-scale carbon cycle analyses. This is partly because of uncertainties in how leaf-level physiological relationships scale to whole ecosystems and because methods for regional to continental detection of plant N concentrations have yet to be developed. Here, we show that ecosystem CO2 uptake capacity in temperate and boreal forests scales directly with whole-canopy N concentrations, mirroring a leaf-level trend that has been observed for woody plants worldwide. We further show that both CO2 uptake capacity and canopy N concentration are strongly and positively correlated with shortwave surface albedo. These results suggest that N plays an additional, and overlooked, role in the climate system via its influence on vegetation reflectivity and shortwave surface energy exchange. We also demonstrate that much of the spatial variation in canopy N can be detected by using broad-band satellite sensors, offering a means through which these findings can be applied toward improved application of coupled carbon cycle–climate models. PMID:19052233

The carbonate-silicate cycle and CO2/climate feedbacks on tidally locked terrestrial planets.

PubMed

Edson, Adam R; Kasting, James F; Pollard, David; Lee, Sukyoung; Bannon, Peter R

2012-06-01

Atmospheric gaseous constituents play an important role in determining the surface temperatures and habitability of a planet. Using a global climate model and a parameterization of the carbonate-silicate cycle, we explored the effect of the location of the substellar point on the atmospheric CO(2) concentration and temperatures of a tidally locked terrestrial planet, using the present Earth continental distribution as an example. We found that the substellar point's location relative to the continents is an important factor in determining weathering and the equilibrium atmospheric CO(2) level. Placing the substellar point over the Atlantic Ocean results in an atmospheric CO(2) concentration of 7 ppmv and a global mean surface air temperature of 247 K, making ∼30% of the planet's surface habitable, whereas placing it over the Pacific Ocean results in a CO(2) concentration of 60,311 ppmv and a global temperature of 282 K, making ∼55% of the surface habitable.

Multispecies breath analysis faster than a single respiratory cycle by optical-feedback cavity-enhanced absorption spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ventrillard-Courtillot, Irene; Gonthiez, Thierry; Clerici, Christine; Romanini, Daniel

2009-11-01

We demonstrate a first application, of optical-feedback cavity-enhanced absorption spectroscopy (OF-CEAS) to breath analysis in a medical environment. Noninvasive monitoring of trace species in exhaled air was performed simultaneous to spirometric measurements on patients at Bichat Hospital (Paris). The high selectivity of the OF-CEAS spectrometer and a time response of 0.3 s (limited by sample flow rate) allowed following the evolution of carbon monoxide and methane concentrations during individual respiratory cycles, and resolving variations among different ventilatory patterns. The minimum detectable absorption on this time scale is about 3×10-10 cm-1. At the working wavelength of the instrument (2.326 μm), this translates to concentration detection limits of ~1 ppbv (45 picomolar, or ~1.25 μg/m3) for CO and 25 ppbv for CH4, well below concentration values found in exhaled air. This same instrument is also able to provide measurement of NH3 concentrations with a detection limit of ~10 ppbv however, at present, memory effects do not allow its measurement on fast time scales.

Final Report for Wetlands as a Source of Atmospheric Methane: A Multiscale and Multidisciplinary Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McFarlane, Karis J.

Boreal peatlands contain large amounts of old carbon, protected by anaerobic and cold conditions. Climate change could result in favorable conditions for the microbial decomposition and release of this old peat carbon as CO2 or CH4 back into the atmosphere. Our goal was to test the potential for this positive biological feedback to climate change at SPRUCE (Spruce and Peatland Response Under Climatic and Environmental Change), a manipulation experiment funded by DOE and occurring in a forested bog in Minnesota. Taking advantage of LLNL’s capabilities and expertise in chemical and isotopic signatures we found that carbon emissions from peat weremore » dominated by recently fixed photosynthates, even after short-term experimental warming. We also found that subsurface hydrologic transport was surprisingly rapid at SPRUCE, supplying microbes with young dissolved organic carbon (DOC). We also identified which microbes oxidize CH4 to CO2 at SPRUCE and found that the most active of these also fix N2 (which means they can utilize atmospheric N, making it accessible for other microbes and plants). These results reflect important interactions between hydrology, carbon cycling, and nitrogen cycling present at the bog and relevant to interpreting experimental results and modeling the wetland response to experimental treatments. LLNL involvement at SPRUCE continues through collaborations and a small contract with ORNL, the lead lab for the SPRUCE experiment.« less

Allowable carbon emissions lowered by multiple climate targets.

PubMed

Steinacher, Marco; Joos, Fortunat; Stocker, Thomas F

2013-07-11

Climate targets are designed to inform policies that would limit the magnitude and impacts of climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances. The target that is currently recognized by most world governments places a limit of two degrees Celsius on the global mean warming since preindustrial times. This would require large sustained reductions in carbon dioxide emissions during the twenty-first century and beyond. Such a global temperature target, however, is not sufficient to control many other quantities, such as transient sea level rise, ocean acidification and net primary production on land. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) in an observation-informed Bayesian approach, we show that allowable carbon emissions are substantially reduced when multiple climate targets are set. We take into account uncertainties in physical and carbon cycle model parameters, radiative efficiencies, climate sensitivity and carbon cycle feedbacks along with a large set of observational constraints. Within this framework, we explore a broad range of economically feasible greenhouse gas scenarios from the integrated assessment community to determine the likelihood of meeting a combination of specific global and regional targets under various assumptions. For any given likelihood of meeting a set of such targets, the allowable cumulative emissions are greatly reduced from those inferred from the temperature target alone. Therefore, temperature targets alone are unable to comprehensively limit the risks from anthropogenic emissions.

Greenhouse gas balance over thaw-freeze cycles in discontinuous zone permafrost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. M.; Fitzhugh, L.; Whiting, G. J.; Frolking, S.; Harrison, M. D.; Dimova, N.; Burnett, W. C.; Chanton, J. P.

2017-02-01

Peat in the discontinuous permafrost zone contains a globally significant reservoir of carbon that has undergone multiple permafrost-thaw cycles since the end of the mid-Holocene ( 3700 years before present). Periods of thaw increase C decomposition rates which leads to the release of CO2 and CH4 to the atmosphere creating potential climate feedback. To determine the magnitude and direction of such feedback, we measured CO2 and CH4 emissions and modeled C accumulation rates and radiative fluxes from measurements of two radioactive tracers with differing lifetimes to describe the C balance of the peatland over multiple permafrost-thaw cycles since the initiation of permafrost at the site. At thaw features, the balance between increased primary production and higher CH4 emission stimulated by warmer temperatures and wetter conditions favors C sequestration and enhanced peat accumulation. Flux measurements suggest that frozen plateaus may intermittently (order of years to decades) act as CO2 sources depending on temperature and net ecosystem respiration rates, but modeling results suggest that—despite brief periods of net C loss to the atmosphere at the initiation of thaw—integrated over millennia, these sites have acted as net C sinks via peat accumulation. In greenhouse gas terms, the transition from frozen permafrost to thawed wetland is accompanied by increasing CO2 uptake that is partially offset by increasing CH4 emissions. In the short-term (decadal time scale) the net effect of this transition is likely enhanced warming via increased radiative C emissions, while in the long-term (centuries) net C deposition provides a negative feedback to climate warming.

Development of negative feedback during successive growth cycles of black cherry.

PubMed Central

Packer, Alissa; Clay, Keith

2004-01-01

Negative feedback between plant and soil microbial communities can be a key determinant of vegetation structure and dynamics. Previous research has shown that negative feedback between black cherry (Prunus serotina) and soil pathogens is strongly distance dependent. Here, we investigate the temporal dynamics of negative feedback. To examine short-term changes, we planted successive cycles of seedlings in the same soil. We found that seedling mortality increased steadily with growth cycle when sterile background soil was inoculated with living field soil but not in controls inoculated with sterilized field soil. To examine long-term changes, we quantified negative feedback across successive growth cycles in soil inoculated with living field soil from a mature forest system (more than 70 years old) versus a younger successional site (ca. 25 years old). In both cases negative feedback developed similarly. Our results suggest that negative feedback can develop very quickly in forest systems, at the spatial scale of a single seedling. PMID:15058444

Methane dynamics regulated by microbial community response to permafrost thaw.

PubMed

McCalley, Carmody K; Woodcroft, Ben J; Hodgkins, Suzanne B; Wehr, Richard A; Kim, Eun-Hae; Mondav, Rhiannon; Crill, Patrick M; Chanton, Jeffrey P; Rich, Virginia I; Tyson, Gene W; Saleska, Scott R

2014-10-23

Permafrost contains about 50% of the global soil carbon. It is thought that the thawing of permafrost can lead to a loss of soil carbon in the form of methane and carbon dioxide emissions. The magnitude of the resulting positive climate feedback of such greenhouse gas emissions is still unknown and may to a large extent depend on the poorly understood role of microbial community composition in regulating the metabolic processes that drive such ecosystem-scale greenhouse gas fluxes. Here we show that changes in vegetation and increasing methane emissions with permafrost thaw are associated with a switch from hydrogenotrophic to partly acetoclastic methanogenesis, resulting in a large shift in the δ(13)C signature (10-15‰) of emitted methane. We used a natural landscape gradient of permafrost thaw in northern Sweden as a model to investigate the role of microbial communities in regulating methane cycling, and to test whether a knowledge of community dynamics could improve predictions of carbon emissions under loss of permafrost. Abundance of the methanogen Candidatus 'Methanoflorens stordalenmirensis' is a key predictor of the shifts in methane isotopes, which in turn predicts the proportions of carbon emitted as methane and as carbon dioxide, an important factor for simulating the climate feedback associated with permafrost thaw in global models. By showing that the abundance of key microbial lineages can be used to predict atmospherically relevant patterns in methane isotopes and the proportion of carbon metabolized to methane during permafrost thaw, we establish a basis for scaling changing microbial communities to ecosystem isotope dynamics. Our findings indicate that microbial ecology may be important in ecosystem-scale responses to global change.

Why is the South Orkney Island shelf (the world's first high seas marine protected area) a carbon immobilization hotspot?

PubMed

Barnes, David K A; Ireland, Louise; Hogg, Oliver T; Morley, Simon; Enderlein, Peter; Sands, Chester J

2016-03-01

The Southern Ocean archipelago, the South Orkney Islands (SOI), became the world's first entirely high seas marine protected area (MPA) in 2010. The SOI continental shelf (~44 000 km(2) ), was less than half covered by grounded ice sheet during glaciations, is biologically rich and a key area of both sea surface warming and sea-ice losses. Little was known of the carbon cycle there, but recent work showed it was a very important site of carbon immobilization (net annual carbon accumulation) by benthos, one of the few demonstrable negative feedbacks to climate change. Carbon immobilization by SOI bryozoans was higher, per species, unit area and ice-free day, than anywhere-else polar. Here, we investigate why carbon immobilization has been so high at SOI, and whether this is due to high density, longevity or high annual production in six study species of bryozoans (benthic suspension feeders). We compared benthic carbon immobilization across major regions around West Antarctica with sea-ice and primary production, from remotely sensed and directly sampled sources. Lowest carbon immobilization was at the northernmost study regions (South Georgia) and southernmost Amundsen Sea. However, data standardized for age and density showed that only SOI was anomalous (high). High immobilization at SOI was due to very high annual production of bryozoans (rather than high densities or longevity), which were 2x, 3x and 5x higher than on the Bellingshausen, South Georgia and Amundsen shelves, respectively. We found that carbon immobilization correlated to the duration (but not peak or integrated biomass) of phytoplankton blooms, both in directly sampled, local scale data and across regions using remote-sensed data. The long bloom at SOI seems to drive considerable carbon immobilization, but sea-ice losses across West Antarctica mean that significant carbon sinks and negative feedbacks to climate change could also develop in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Analysis of Terrestrial Carbon Stocks in a Small Catchment of Northeastern Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heard, K.; Natali, S.; Bunn, A. G.; Loranty, M. M.; Kholodov, A. L.; Schade, J. D.; Berner, L. T.; Spektor, V.; Zimov, N.; Alexander, H. D.

2015-12-01

As arctic terrestrial ecosystems comprise about one-third of the global terrestrial ecosystem carbon total, understanding arctic carbon cycling and the feedback of terrestrial carbon pools to accelerated warming is an issue of global concern. For this research, we examined above- and belowground carbon stocks in a larch-dominated catchment underlain by yedoma and located within the Kolyma River watershed in northeastern Siberia. We quantified carbon stocks in vegetation, active layer, and permafrost, and we assessed the correlation between plant and active layer carbon pools and four environmental correlates — slope, solar insolation, canopy density, and leaf area index ­— at 20 sites. Carbon in the active layer was approximately four times greater than aboveground carbon pools (972 g C m-2), and belowground carbon to 1 m depth was approximately 18 times greater than aboveground carbon pools. Canopy density and slope had a robust positive association with aboveground carbon pools, and soil moisture was positively related to %C in organic, thawed mineral and permafrost soil. Thaw depth was negatively correlated with moss cover and larch biomass, highlighting the importance of vegetation and surface characteristics on permafrost carbon vulnerability. These data suggest that landscape and ecosystem characteristics affect carbon accumulation and storage, but they also play an important role in stabilizing permafrost carbon pools.

Climate, pCO2 and terrestrial carbon cycle linkages during late Palaeozoic glacial-interglacial cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montañez, Isabel P.; McElwain, Jennifer C.; Poulsen, Christopher J.; White, Joseph D.; Dimichele, William A.; Wilson, Jonathan P.; Griggs, Galen; Hren, Michael T.

2016-11-01

Earth's last icehouse, 300 million years ago, is considered the longest-lived and most acute of the past half-billion years, characterized by expansive continental ice sheets and possibly tropical low-elevation glaciation. This atypical climate has long been attributed to anomalous radiative forcing promoted by a 3% lower incident solar luminosity and sustained low atmospheric pCO2 (<=300 ppm). Climate models, however, indicate a CO2 sensitivity of ice-sheet distribution and sea-level response that questions this long-standing climate paradigm by revealing major discrepancy between hypothesized ice distribution, pCO2, and geologic records of glacioeustasy. Here we present a high-resolution record of atmospheric pCO2 for 16 million years of the late Palaeozoic, developed using soil carbonate-based and fossil leaf-based proxies, that resolves the climate conundrum. Palaeo-fluctuations on the 105-yr scale occur within the CO2 range predicted for anthropogenic change and co-vary with substantial change in sea level and ice volume. We further document coincidence between pCO2 changes and repeated restructuring of Euramerican tropical forests that, in conjunction with modelled vegetation shifts, indicate a more dynamic carbon sequestration history than previously considered and a major role for terrestrial vegetation-CO2 feedbacks in driving eccentricity-scale climate cycles of the late Palaeozoic icehouse.

Forest soil carbon oxidation state and oxidative ratio responses to elevated CO 2

DOE PAGES

Hockaday, William C.; Gallagher, Morgan E.; Masiello, Caroline A.; ...

2015-09-21

The oxidative ratio (OR) of the biosphere is the stoichiometric ratio (O 2/CO 2) of gas exchange by photosynthesis and respiration a key parameter in budgeting calculations of the land and ocean carbon sinks. Carbon cycle-climate feedbacks could alter the OR of the biosphere by affecting the quantity and quality of organic matter in plant biomass and soil carbon pools. Here, this study considers the effect of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO 2]) on the OR of a hardwood forest after nine growing seasons of Free-Air CO 2 Enrichment. We measured changes in the carbon oxidation state (C ox)more » of biomass and soil carbon pools as a proxy for the ecosystem OR. The OR of net primary production, 1.039, was not affected by elevated [CO 2]. However, the C ox of the soil carbon pool was 40% higher at elevated [CO 2], and the estimated OR values for soil respiration increased from 1.006 at ambient [CO 2] to 1.054 at elevated [CO 2]. A biochemical inventory of the soil organic matter ascribed the increases in C ox and OR to faster turnover of reduced substrates, lignin and lipids, at elevated [CO 2]. This implicates the heterotrophic soil community response to elevated [CO 2] as a driver of disequilibrium in the ecosystem OR. The oxidation of soil carbon pool constitutes an unexpected terrestrial O 2 sink. Carbon budgets constructed under the assumption of OR equilibrium would equate such a terrestrial O 2 sink to CO 2 uptake by the ocean. We find that the potential for climate-driven disequilibriua in the cycling of O 2 and CO 2 warrants further investigation.« less

Global distribution of carbon turnover times in terrestrial ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalhais, Nuno; Forkel, Matthias; Khomik, Myroslava; Bellarby, Jessica; Jung, Martin; Migliavacca, Mirco; Mu, Mingquan; Saatchi, Sassan; Santoro, Maurizio; Thurner, Martin; Weber, Ulrich; Ahrens, Bernhard; Beer, Christian; Cescatti, Alessandro; Randerson, James T.; Reichstein, Markus

2015-04-01

The response of the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability remains one of the largest uncertainties affecting future projections of climate change. This feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate is partly determined by the response of carbon uptake and by changes in the residence time of carbon in land ecosystems, which depend on climate, soil, and vegetation type. Thus, it is of foremost importance to quantify the turnover times of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems and its spatial co-variability with climate. Here, we develop a global, spatially explicit and observation-based assessment of whole-ecosystem carbon turnover times (τ) to investigate its co-variation with climate at global scale. Assuming a balance between uptake (gross primary production, GPP) and emission fluxes, τ can be defined as the ratio between the total stock (C_total) and the output or input fluxes (GPP). The estimation of vegetation (C_veg) stocks relies on new remote sensing-based estimates from Saatchi et al (2011) and Thurner et al (2014), while soil carbon stocks (C_soil) are estimated based on state of the art global (Harmonized World Soil Database) and regional (Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database) datasets. The uptake flux estimates are based on global observation-based fields of GPP (Jung et al., 2011). Globally, we find an overall mean global carbon turnover time of 23-4+7 years (95% confidence interval). A strong spatial variability globally is also observed, from shorter residence times in equatorial regions to longer periods at latitudes north of 75°N (mean τ of 15 and 255 years, respectively). The observed latitudinal pattern reflect the clear dependencies on temperature, showing increases from the equator to the poles, which is consistent with our current understanding of temperature controls on ecosystem dynamics. However, long turnover times are also observed in semi-arid and forest-herbaceous transition regions. Furthermore, based on a local correlation analysis, our results reveal a similarly strong association between τ and precipitation. A further analysis of carbon turnover times as simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate carbon-cycle models from the CMIP5 experiments reveals wide variations between models and a tendency to underestimate the global τ by 36%. The latitudinal patterns correlate significantly with the observation-based patterns. However, the models show stronger associations between τ and temperature than the observation-based estimates. In general, the stronger relationship between τ and precipitation is not reproduced and the modeled turnover times are significantly faster in many semi-arid regions. Ultimately, these results suggest a strong role of the hydrological cycle in the carbon cycle-climate interactions, which is not currently reproduced by Earth system models.

Greater soil carbon stocks and faster turnover rates with increasing agricultural productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanderman, Jonathan; Creamer, Courtney; Baisden, W. Troy; Farrell, Mark; Fallon, Stewart

2017-01-01

Devising agricultural management schemes that enhance food security and soil carbon levels is a high priority for many nations. However, the coupling between agricultural productivity, soil carbon stocks and organic matter turnover rates is still unclear. Archived soil samples from four decades of a long-term crop rotation trial were analyzed for soil organic matter (SOM) cycling-relevant properties: C and N content, bulk composition by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, amino sugar content, short-term C bioavailability assays, and long-term C turnover rates by modeling the incorporation of the bomb spike in atmospheric 14C into the soil. After > 40 years under consistent management, topsoil carbon stocks ranged from 14 to 33 Mg C ha-1 and were linearly related to the mean productivity of each treatment. Measurements of SOM composition demonstrated increasing amounts of plant- and microbially derived SOM along the productivity gradient. Under two modeling scenarios, radiocarbon data indicated overall SOM turnover time decreased from 40 to 13 years with increasing productivity - twice the rate of decline predicted from simple steady-state models or static three-pool decay rates of measured C pool distributions. Similarly, the half-life of synthetic root exudates decreased from 30.4 to 21.5 h with increasing productivity, indicating accelerated microbial activity. These findings suggest that there is a direct feedback between accelerated biological activity, carbon cycling rates and rates of carbon stabilization with important implications for how SOM dynamics are represented in models.

Marine phytoplankton stoichiometry mediates nonlinear interactions between nutrient supply, temperature, and atmospheric CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno, Allison R.; Hagstrom, George I.; Primeau, Francois W.; Levin, Simon A.; Martiny, Adam C.

2018-05-01

Marine phytoplankton stoichiometry links nutrient supply to marine carbon export. Deviations of phytoplankton stoichiometry from Redfield proportions (106C : 1P) could therefore have a significant impact on carbon cycling, and understanding which environmental factors drive these deviations may reveal new mechanisms regulating the carbon cycle. To explore the links between environmental conditions, stoichiometry, and carbon cycling, we compared four different models of phytoplankton C : P: a fixed Redfield model, a model with C : P given as a function of surface phosphorus concentration (P), a model with C P given as a function of temperature, and a new multi-environmental model that predicts C : P as a function of light, temperature, and P. These stoichiometric models were embedded into a five-box ocean circulation model, which resolves the three major ocean biomes (high-latitude, subtropical gyres, and tropical upwelling regions). Contrary to the expectation of a monotonic relationship between surface nutrient drawdown and carbon export, we found that lateral nutrient transport from lower C : P tropical waters to high C : P subtropical waters could cause carbon export to decrease with increased tropical nutrient utilization. It has been hypothesized that a positive feedback between temperature and pCO2, atm will play an important role in anthropogenic climate change, with changes in the biological pump playing at most a secondary role. Here we show that environmentally driven shifts in stoichiometry make the biological pump more influential, and may reverse the expected positive relationship between temperature and pCO2, atm. In the temperature-only model, changes in tropical temperature have more impact on the Δ pCO2, atm (˜ 41 ppm) compared to subtropical temperature changes (˜ 4.5 ppm). Our multi-environmental model predicted a decline in pCO2, atm of ˜ 46 ppm when temperature spanned a change of 10 °C. Thus, we find that variation in marine phytoplankton stoichiometry and its environmental controlling factors can lead to nonlinear controls on pCO2, atm, suggesting the need for further studies of ocean C : P and the impact on ocean carbon cycling.

Fire in Australian savannas: from leaf to landscape

PubMed Central

Beringer, Jason; Hutley, Lindsay B; Abramson, David; Arndt, Stefan K; Briggs, Peter; Bristow, Mila; Canadell, Josep G; Cernusak, Lucas A; Eamus, Derek; Edwards, Andrew C; Evans, Bradley J; Fest, Benedikt; Goergen, Klaus; Grover, Samantha P; Hacker, Jorg; Haverd, Vanessa; Kanniah, Kasturi; Livesley, Stephen J; Lynch, Amanda; Maier, Stefan; Moore, Caitlin; Raupach, Michael; Russell-Smith, Jeremy; Scheiter, Simon; Tapper, Nigel J; Uotila, Petteri

2015-01-01

Savanna ecosystems comprise 22% of the global terrestrial surface and 25% of Australia (almost 1.9 million km2) and provide significant ecosystem services through carbon and water cycles and the maintenance of biodiversity. The current structure, composition and distribution of Australian savannas have coevolved with fire, yet remain driven by the dynamic constraints of their bioclimatic niche. Fire in Australian savannas influences both the biophysical and biogeochemical processes at multiple scales from leaf to landscape. Here, we present the latest emission estimates from Australian savanna biomass burning and their contribution to global greenhouse gas budgets. We then review our understanding of the impacts of fire on ecosystem function and local surface water and heat balances, which in turn influence regional climate. We show how savanna fires are coupled to the global climate through the carbon cycle and fire regimes. We present new research that climate change is likely to alter the structure and function of savannas through shifts in moisture availability and increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in turn altering fire regimes with further feedbacks to climate. We explore opportunities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions from savanna ecosystems through changes in savanna fire management. PMID:25044767

Intensification of Climate-Carbon Feedbacks after 2100 and Implications for Disturbance Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.; Lindsay, K. T.; Munoz, E.; Fu, W.; Hoffman, F. M.; Moore, J. K.; Doney, S. C.; Mahowald, N. M.; Bonan, G. B.

2014-12-01

Long-term ecosystem and carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (version 1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (and its extension). In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical models were exposed to the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO2. In one simulation, atmospheric CO2 and other forcing agents were radiatively active (fully coupled), modifying temperature and other aspects of climate. In another, CO2 was radiatively uncoupled, and in the third, both CO2 and other atmospheric forcing agents (including CH4, N2O, and aerosols) were radiatively uncoupled. In the fully coupled simulation, global mean air temperatures increased by 9.3°C from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4°C of this warming occurring after 2100. Without radiative forcing from CO2, cumulative warming was much lower at 2.4°C, but exceeding 2°C targets needed to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system. In response to climate change, ocean and land rates of carbon uptake were reduced, with the size of the impact increasing over time. In the oceans, reductions in cumulative carbon uptake from climate change increased from 3% during the 20th century to 40% during the 23rd century. By 2300, climate change had reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Most of this reduction occurred after 2100 as a consequence of increases in surface stratification and decreases in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change inducing a cumulative loss of 230 Pg C by 2300. On land the intensification of the hydrological cycle globally increased terrestrial water storage, although asymmetric responses were observed across different continents in the tropics. Net loss of carbon from tropical forest ecosystems, in response to large temperature increases, were partly offset by increases in carbon uptake in temperate and high latitude ecosystems. We conclude by presenting an assessment of how climate variability over land and burned area change century by century.

Constraining the climate and ocean pH of the early Earth with a geological carbon cycle model

PubMed Central

Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Arney, Giada N.

2018-01-01

The early Earth’s environment is controversial. Climatic estimates range from hot to glacial, and inferred marine pH spans strongly alkaline to acidic. Better understanding of early climate and ocean chemistry would improve our knowledge of the origin of life and its coevolution with the environment. Here, we use a geological carbon cycle model with ocean chemistry to calculate self-consistent histories of climate and ocean pH. Our carbon cycle model includes an empirically justified temperature and pH dependence of seafloor weathering, allowing the relative importance of continental and seafloor weathering to be evaluated. We find that the Archean climate was likely temperate (0–50 °C) due to the combined negative feedbacks of continental and seafloor weathering. Ocean pH evolves monotonically from 6.6−0.4+0.6 (2σ) at 4.0 Ga to 7.0−0.5+0.7 (2σ) at the Archean–Proterozoic boundary, and to 7.9−0.2+0.1 (2σ) at the Proterozoic–Phanerozoic boundary. This evolution is driven by the secular decline of pCO2, which in turn is a consequence of increasing solar luminosity, but is moderated by carbonate alkalinity delivered from continental and seafloor weathering. Archean seafloor weathering may have been a comparable carbon sink to continental weathering, but is less dominant than previously assumed, and would not have induced global glaciation. We show how these conclusions are robust to a wide range of scenarios for continental growth, internal heat flow evolution and outgassing history, greenhouse gas abundances, and changes in the biotic enhancement of weathering. PMID:29610313

Constraining the climate and ocean pH of the early Earth with a geological carbon cycle model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Arney, Giada N.; Catling, David C.

2018-04-01

The early Earth’s environment is controversial. Climatic estimates range from hot to glacial, and inferred marine pH spans strongly alkaline to acidic. Better understanding of early climate and ocean chemistry would improve our knowledge of the origin of life and its coevolution with the environment. Here, we use a geological carbon cycle model with ocean chemistry to calculate self-consistent histories of climate and ocean pH. Our carbon cycle model includes an empirically justified temperature and pH dependence of seafloor weathering, allowing the relative importance of continental and seafloor weathering to be evaluated. We find that the Archean climate was likely temperate (0–50 °C) due to the combined negative feedbacks of continental and seafloor weathering. Ocean pH evolves monotonically from 6.6‑0.4+0.6 (2σ) at 4.0 Ga to 7.0‑0.5+0.7 (2σ) at the Archean–Proterozoic boundary, and to 7.9‑0.2+0.1 (2σ) at the Proterozoic–Phanerozoic boundary. This evolution is driven by the secular decline of pCO2, which in turn is a consequence of increasing solar luminosity, but is moderated by carbonate alkalinity delivered from continental and seafloor weathering. Archean seafloor weathering may have been a comparable carbon sink to continental weathering, but is less dominant than previously assumed, and would not have induced global glaciation. We show how these conclusions are robust to a wide range of scenarios for continental growth, internal heat flow evolution and outgassing history, greenhouse gas abundances, and changes in the biotic enhancement of weathering.

Climate and Management Controls on Forest Growth and Forest Carbon Balance in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelsey, Katharine Cashman

Climate change is resulting in a number of rapid changes in forests worldwide. Forests comprise a critical component of the global carbon cycle, and therefore climate-induced changes in forest carbon balance have the potential to create a feedback within the global carbon cycle and affect future trajectories of climate change. In order to further understanding of climate-driven changes in forest carbon balance, I (1) develop a method to improve spatial estimates forest carbon stocks, (2) investigate the effect of climate change and forest management actions on forest recovery and carbon balance following disturbance, and (3) explore the relationship between climate and forest growth, and identify climate-driven trends in forest growth through time, within San Juan National Forest in southwest Colorado, USA. I find that forest carbon estimates based on texture analysis from LandsatTM imagery improve regional forest carbon maps, and this method is particularly useful for estimating carbon stocks in forested regions affected by disturbance. Forest recovery from disturbance is also a critical component of future forest carbon stocks, and my results indicate that both climate and forest management actions have important implications for forest recovery and carbon dynamics following disturbance. Specifically, forest treatments that use woody biomass removed from the forest for electricity production can reduce carbon emissions to the atmosphere, but climate driven changes in fire severity and forest recovery can have the opposite effect on forest carbon stocks. In addition to the effects of disturbance and recovery on forest condition, I also find that climate change is decreasing rates of forest growth in some species, likely in response to warming summer temperatures. These growth declines could result in changes of vegetation composition, or in extreme cases, a shift in vegetation type that would alter forest carbon storage. This work provides insight into both current and future changes in forest carbon balance as a consequence of climate change and forest management in the western US.

Rate of tree carbon accumulation increases continuously with tree size.

PubMed

Stephenson, N L; Das, A J; Condit, R; Russo, S E; Baker, P J; Beckman, N G; Coomes, D A; Lines, E R; Morris, W K; Rüger, N; Alvarez, E; Blundo, C; Bunyavejchewin, S; Chuyong, G; Davies, S J; Duque, A; Ewango, C N; Flores, O; Franklin, J F; Grau, H R; Hao, Z; Harmon, M E; Hubbell, S P; Kenfack, D; Lin, Y; Makana, J-R; Malizia, A; Malizia, L R; Pabst, R J; Pongpattananurak, N; Su, S-H; Sun, I-F; Tan, S; Thomas, D; van Mantgem, P J; Wang, X; Wiser, S K; Zavala, M A

2014-03-06

Forests are major components of the global carbon cycle, providing substantial feedback to atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Our ability to understand and predict changes in the forest carbon cycle--particularly net primary productivity and carbon storage--increasingly relies on models that represent biological processes across several scales of biological organization, from tree leaves to forest stands. Yet, despite advances in our understanding of productivity at the scales of leaves and stands, no consensus exists about the nature of productivity at the scale of the individual tree, in part because we lack a broad empirical assessment of whether rates of absolute tree mass growth (and thus carbon accumulation) decrease, remain constant, or increase as trees increase in size and age. Here we present a global analysis of 403 tropical and temperate tree species, showing that for most species mass growth rate increases continuously with tree size. Thus, large, old trees do not act simply as senescent carbon reservoirs but actively fix large amounts of carbon compared to smaller trees; at the extreme, a single big tree can add the same amount of carbon to the forest within a year as is contained in an entire mid-sized tree. The apparent paradoxes of individual tree growth increasing with tree size despite declining leaf-level and stand-level productivity can be explained, respectively, by increases in a tree's total leaf area that outpace declines in productivity per unit of leaf area and, among other factors, age-related reductions in population density. Our results resolve conflicting assumptions about the nature of tree growth, inform efforts to undertand and model forest carbon dynamics, and have additional implications for theories of resource allocation and plant senescence.

Tracking Early Jurassic marine (de)oxygenation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Them, T. R., II; Caruthers, A. H.; Gill, B. C.; Gröcke, D. R.; Marroquín, S. M.; Owens, J. D.

2017-12-01

It has been suggested that the carbon cycle was perturbed during the Toarcian OAE (T-OAE) as observed in the carbon isotope record, and more recently other elemental cycles (e.g., Hg, Mo, Os, S). The most widely accepted hypothesis focuses on the emplacement of the Karoo-Ferrar large igneous province, outgassing of greenhouse gases, and subsequent feedbacks in the Earth system, which caused severe environmental change and biological turnover. Feedbacks to elevated atmospheric pCO2 include enhanced weathering rates, dissociation of methane clathrates, increased terrestrial methanogenesis, and widespread marine anoxia. The sequence of events related to the development and duration of marine anoxia are not well constrained for this time interval due to a lack of open-ocean geochemical records. In order to reconstruct the timing of marine deoxygenation during the Early Jurassic T-OAE, we have utilized thallium isotopes, a novel geochemical proxy from multiple anoxic basins in North America and Germany. Three sites representing a basin transect from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, and one site from the South German Basin, were chosen to reconstruct the thallium isotopic composition (ɛ205Tl) of the ocean. The ɛ205Tl composition of sediments deposited under anoxic and euxinic water columns records the global seawater ɛ205Tl composition, a function of the amount of manganese oxides that are precipitated. Increased geographic extent of marine anoxia will cause a decrease in manganese oxide precipitation and perturb the thallium system. Importantly, the inputs of thallium are nearly identical, thus changes in these fluxes cannot drive the observed perturbation. Our new Early Jurassic ɛ205Tl records suggest that the onset of marine deoxygenation occurred concurrently with Karoo-Ferrar magmatism in the late Pliensbachian and continued until after the T-OAE. These new data support a Karoo-Ferrar trigger of the T-OAE. However, thallium isotopes also suggest that widespread marine deoxygenation was prevalent before and after the carbon isotope-defined T-OAE, which suggests significant oxygen consumption through carbon remineralization pre- and post-OAE. Thus, the OAE actually represents the interval of minimum oceanic oxygen and maximum euxinia, which primes the system for maximum organic carbon burial.

Tundra shrubification and tree-line advance amplify arctic climate warming: results from an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenxin; Miller, Paul A.; Smith, Benjamin; Wania, Rita; Koenigk, Torben; Döscher, Ralf

2013-09-01

One major challenge to the improvement of regional climate scenarios for the northern high latitudes is to understand land surface feedbacks associated with vegetation shifts and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling. We employed a customized, Arctic version of the individual-based dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to simulate the dynamics of upland and wetland ecosystems under a regional climate model-downscaled future climate projection for the Arctic and Subarctic. The simulated vegetation distribution (1961-1990) agreed well with a composite map of actual arctic vegetation. In the future (2051-2080), a poleward advance of the forest-tundra boundary, an expansion of tall shrub tundra, and a dominance shift from deciduous to evergreen boreal conifer forest over northern Eurasia were simulated. Ecosystems continued to sink carbon for the next few decades, although the size of these sinks diminished by the late 21st century. Hot spots of increased CH4 emission were identified in the peatlands near Hudson Bay and western Siberia. In terms of their net impact on regional climate forcing, positive feedbacks associated with the negative effects of tree-line, shrub cover and forest phenology changes on snow-season albedo, as well as the larger sources of CH4, may potentially dominate over negative feedbacks due to increased carbon sequestration and increased latent heat flux.

Vegetation-climate feedback causes reduced precipitation in CMIP5 regional Earth system model simulation over Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Minchao; Smith, Benjamin; Schurgers, Guy; Lindström, Joe; Rummukainen, Markku; Samuelsson, Patrick

2013-04-01

Terrestrial ecosystems have been demonstrated to play a significant role within the climate system, amplifying or dampening climate change via biogeophysical and biogeochemical exchange with the atmosphere and vice versa (Cox et al. 2000; Betts et al. 2004). Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change and studies of vegetation-climate feedback mechanisms on Africa are still limited. Our study is the first application of A coupled Earth system model at regional scale and resolution over Africa. We applied a coupled regional climate-vegetation model, RCA-GUESS (Smith et al. 2011), over the CORDEX Africa domain, forced by boundary conditions from a CanESM2 CMIP5 simulation under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The simulations were from 1961 to 2100 and covered the African continent at a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. RCA-GUESS simulates changes in the phenology, productivity, relative cover and population structure of up to eight plant function types (PFTs) in response to forcing from the climate part of the model. These vegetation changes feedback to simulated climate through dynamic adjustments in surface energy fluxes and surface properties. Changes in the net ecosystem-atmosphere carbon flux and its components net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration and emissions from biomass burning were also simulated but do not feedback to climate in our model. Constant land cover was assumed. We compared simulations with and without vegetation feedback switched "on" to assess the influence of vegetation-climate feedback on simulated climate, vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling. Both positive and negative warming feedbacks were identified in different parts of Africa. In the Sahel savannah zone near 15°N, reduced vegetation cover and productivity, and mortality caused by a deterioration of soil water conditions led to a positive warming feedback mediated by decreased evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat flux between vegetation and the atmosphere. In the equatorial rainforest stronghold region of central Africa, a feedback syndrome characterised by reduced plant production and LAI, a dominance shift from tropical trees to grasses, reduced soil water and reduced rainfall was identified. The likely underlying mechanism was a decline in evaporative water recycling associated with sparser vegetation cover, reminiscent of Earth system model studies in which a similar feedback mechanism was simulated to force dieback of tropical rainforest and reduced precipitation over the Amazon Basin (Cox et al. 2000; Betts et al. 2004; Malhi et al. 2009). Opposite effects are seen in southern Senegal, southern Mali, northern Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, positive evapotranspiration feedback enhancing the cover of trees in forest and savannah, mitigating warming and promoting local moisture recycling as rainfall. We reveal that LAI-driven evapotranspiration feedback may reduced rainfall in parts of Africa, vegetation-climate feedbacks may significantly impact the magnitude and character of simulated changes in climate as well as vegetation and ecosystems in future scenario studies of this region. They should be accounted for in future studies of climate change and its impacts on Africa. Keywords: vegetation-climate feedback, regional climate model, evapotranspiration, CORDEX. References: Betts, R.A., Cox, P.M., Collins, M., Harris, P.P., Huntingford, C. & Jones, C.D. 2004. The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 78: 157-175. Cox, P.M., Betts, R.A., Jones, C.D., Spall, S.A. & Totterdell, I.J. 2000. Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature 408: 184-187. Samuelsson, P., Jones, C., Wilĺen, U., Gollvik, S., Hansson, U. and coauthors. 2011. The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model RCA3:Model description and performance. Tellus 63A, 4-23. Smith, B., Prentice, I. C. and Sykes, M. T. 2001. Representation of vegetation dynamics in modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space. Global Ecol. Biogeog. 10, 621-637 Smith, B., Samuelsson, P., Wramneby, A. & Rummukainen, M. 2011. A model of the coupled dynamics of climate, vegetation and terrestrial ecosystem biogeochemistry for regional applications. Tellus 63A: 87-106.

Empirical Records of Environmental Change across the Archean-Proterozoic Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, A. J.

2011-12-01

Time-series geochemical analyses of scientific drill cores intersecting the Archean-Proterozoic transition suggest a coupling of environmental and biological change that culminated in the pervasive oxygenation of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. Elemental and multiple isotope measurements of sedimentary archives, including carbonate, shale, and banded iron-formation from Western Australia, South Africa, Brazil, and southern Canada, indicate important changes in the carbon, sulfur, and nitrogen cycles that monitor the redox state of the oceans and the cyanobacterial buildup of atmospheric oxygen and ozone. In response, continental weathering would have increased, resulting in the enhanced delivery of sulfate and nutrients to seawater, further stimulating photoautotrophic fluxes of oxygen to surface environments. The positive feedback may additionally be responsible for the decline of atmospheric methane and surface refrigeration, represented by a series of discrete ice ages beginning around 2.4 billion years ago, due to the loss of greenhouse capacity during a time of lower solar luminosity. While speculative, the linkage of surface oxidation with enhanced nutrient supply and development of stratospheric sunscreen soon after the Archean-Proterozoic boundary suggests that the earliest perturbation in the carbon cycle may be associated with the rapid expansion of single-celled eukaryotes. Both sterol synthesis in eukaryotes and aerobic respiration require significant levels of oxygen in the ambient environment. Hence, Earth's earliest ice age(s) and onset of a modern and far more energetic carbon cycle may have been directly related to the global expansion of cyanobacteria that released oxygen to the environment, and of eukaryotes that respired it.

Exploring global carbon turnover and radiocarbon cycling in terrestrial biosphere models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graven, H. D.; Warren, H.

2017-12-01

The uptake of carbon into terrestrial ecosystems through net primary productivity (NPP) and the turnover of that carbon through various pathways are the fundamental drivers of changing carbon stocks on land, in addition to human-induced and natural disturbances. Terrestrial biosphere models use different formulations for carbon uptake and release, resulting in a range of values in NPP of 40-70 PgC/yr and biomass turnover times of about 25-40 years for the preindustrial period in current-generation models from CMIP5. Biases in carbon uptake and turnover impact simulated carbon uptake and storage in the historical period and later in the century under changing climate and CO2 concentration, however evaluating global-scale NPP and carbon turnover is challenging. Scaling up of plot-scale measurements involves uncertainty due to the large heterogeneity across ecosystems and biomass types, some of which are not well-observed. We are developing the modelling of radiocarbon in terrestrial biosphere models, with a particular focus on decadal 14C dynamics after the nuclear weapons testing in the 1950s-60s, including the impact of carbon flux trends and variability on 14C cycling. We use an estimate of the total inventory of excess 14C in the biosphere constructed by Naegler and Levin (2009) using a 14C budget approach incorporating estimates of total 14C produced by the weapons tests and atmospheric and oceanic 14C observations. By simulating radiocarbon in simple biosphere box models using carbon fluxes from the CMIP5 models, we find that carbon turnover is too rapid in many of the simple models - the models appear to take up too much 14C and release it too quickly. Therefore many CMIP5 models may also simulate carbon turnover that is too rapid. A caveat is that the simple box models we use may not adequately represent carbon dynamics in the full-scale models. Explicit simulation of radiocarbon in terrestrial biosphere models would allow more robust evaluation of biosphere models and the investigation of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks on various timescales. Explicit simulation of radiocarbon and carbon-13 in terrestrial biosphere models of Earth System Models, as well as in ocean models, is recommended by CMIP6 and supported by CMIP6 protocols and forcing datasets.

Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocker, Benjamin D.; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri; Prentice, Iain Colin

2013-07-01

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4-0.5°C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8-1.0°C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22-27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

A Functional Response Metric for the Temperature Sensitivity of Tropical Ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Basile, Samantha J.; Hoffman, Forrest M.

Earth system models (ESMs) simulate a large spread in carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, particularly in their prediction of cumulative changes in terrestrial carbon storage. Evaluating the performance of ESMs against observations and assessing the likelihood of long-term climate predictions are crucial for model development. Here, we assessed the use of atmospheric CO 2 growth rate variations to evaluate the sensitivity of tropical ecosystem carbon fluxes to interannual temperature variations. We found that the temperature sensitivity of the observed CO 2 growth rate depended on the time scales over which atmospheric CO 2 observations were averaged. The temperature sensitivitymore » of the CO 2 growth rate during Northern Hemisphere winter is most directly related to the tropical carbon flux sensitivity since winter variations in Northern Hemisphere carbon fluxes are relatively small. This metric can be used to test the fidelity of interactions between the physical climate system and terrestrial ecosystems within ESMs, which is especially important since the short-term relationship between ecosystem fluxes and temperature stress may be related to the long-term feedbacks between ecosystems and climate. If the interannual temperature sensitivity is used to constrain long-term temperature responses, the inferred sensitivity may be biased by 20%, unless the seasonality of the relationship between the observed CO 2 growth rate and tropical fluxes is taken into account. Lastly, these results suggest that atmospheric data can be used directly to evaluate regional land fluxes from ESMs, but underscore that the interaction between the time scales for land surface processes and those for atmospheric processes must be considered.« less

A Functional Response Metric for the Temperature Sensitivity of Tropical Ecosystems

DOE PAGES

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Basile, Samantha J.; Hoffman, Forrest M.

2018-04-23

Earth system models (ESMs) simulate a large spread in carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, particularly in their prediction of cumulative changes in terrestrial carbon storage. Evaluating the performance of ESMs against observations and assessing the likelihood of long-term climate predictions are crucial for model development. Here, we assessed the use of atmospheric CO 2 growth rate variations to evaluate the sensitivity of tropical ecosystem carbon fluxes to interannual temperature variations. We found that the temperature sensitivity of the observed CO 2 growth rate depended on the time scales over which atmospheric CO 2 observations were averaged. The temperature sensitivitymore » of the CO 2 growth rate during Northern Hemisphere winter is most directly related to the tropical carbon flux sensitivity since winter variations in Northern Hemisphere carbon fluxes are relatively small. This metric can be used to test the fidelity of interactions between the physical climate system and terrestrial ecosystems within ESMs, which is especially important since the short-term relationship between ecosystem fluxes and temperature stress may be related to the long-term feedbacks between ecosystems and climate. If the interannual temperature sensitivity is used to constrain long-term temperature responses, the inferred sensitivity may be biased by 20%, unless the seasonality of the relationship between the observed CO 2 growth rate and tropical fluxes is taken into account. Lastly, these results suggest that atmospheric data can be used directly to evaluate regional land fluxes from ESMs, but underscore that the interaction between the time scales for land surface processes and those for atmospheric processes must be considered.« less

FeedbackBetweenHumanActivitiesAndTerrestrialCarbonCyclesInSystemsOfShadeCoffeePro ductionInMexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pena Del Valle, A. E.; Perez-Samayoa, I. A.

2007-12-01

Coffee production in Mexico is carried out within a strong natural context. Coffee is grown under a canopy of several native and introduced tree species. This fact ensures a greater diversity of natural resources and environmental services available for local inhabitants to sustain their livelihoods. However, the lack of opportunities for coffee farmers is increasing the demand over the remaining forest areas by exacerbating non- sustainable timber extraction practices and promoting conversion of forests to pasture lands. This situation hampers the landscapes equilibrium and threatens the wellbeing of rural livelihoods. To understand the interactions between human activities and ecological functions associated with shaded coffee systems, this research has explored the extent to which socio-economic and cultural factors have influenced the use and management of natural resources sustaining coffee livelihoods. At the same time, it examines how customary patterns of resource use have induced changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle at the local level. The empirical study was carried out in a coffee-growing region in Mexico. It involved substantial fieldwork, use of satellite imagery, and participatory research methods in order to gauge a variety of biophysical and socio- economic factors, including forest cover, land use, and carbon balances, as well as, farming practices and off- farming strategies. In addition, a livelihood perspective was applied to approach the linkages between the management of natural resources, the environmental goods and services, and the socio-economic conditions in the coffee-growing region. The empirical evidence from the research marks out shade coffee systems as important supporters for broader natural systems as suppliers of environmental services. However, it also suggests that non-climatic factors might have significant impacts on the local environment and therefore on the terrestrial carbon cycle. According to the research estimations, in the mid-term, rural farmers would have to incorporate a larger extent of land under shifting cultivation and pasture in order to obtain a similar income to that of one hectare of shade coffee. Consequently, the research points out feedback mechanisms between human activities and the natural environment, in order to gain insight into adaptive response mechanisms, which might enhance possibilities for socioeconomic viability in systems of shaded coffee production and proper maintenance of biophysical conditions, environmental services, and human activities.

Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume.

PubMed

Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Saito, Fuyuki; Kawamura, Kenji; Raymo, Maureen E; Okuno, Jun'ichi; Takahashi, Kunio; Blatter, Heinz

2013-08-08

The growth and reduction of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the past million years is dominated by an approximately 100,000-year periodicity and a sawtooth pattern (gradual growth and fast termination). Milankovitch theory proposes that summer insolation at high northern latitudes drives the glacial cycles, and statistical tests have demonstrated that the glacial cycles are indeed linked to eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles. Yet insolation alone cannot explain the strong 100,000-year cycle, suggesting that internal climatic feedbacks may also be at work. Earlier conceptual models, for example, showed that glacial terminations are associated with the build-up of Northern Hemisphere 'excess ice', but the physical mechanisms underpinning the 100,000-year cycle remain unclear. Here we show, using comprehensive climate and ice-sheet models, that insolation and internal feedbacks between the climate, the ice sheets and the lithosphere-asthenosphere system explain the 100,000-year periodicity. The responses of equilibrium states of ice sheets to summer insolation show hysteresis, with the shape and position of the hysteresis loop playing a key part in determining the periodicities of glacial cycles. The hysteresis loop of the North American ice sheet is such that after inception of the ice sheet, its mass balance remains mostly positive through several precession cycles, whose amplitudes decrease towards an eccentricity minimum. The larger the ice sheet grows and extends towards lower latitudes, the smaller is the insolation required to make the mass balance negative. Therefore, once a large ice sheet is established, a moderate increase in insolation is sufficient to trigger a negative mass balance, leading to an almost complete retreat of the ice sheet within several thousand years. This fast retreat is governed mainly by rapid ablation due to the lowered surface elevation resulting from delayed isostatic rebound, which is the lithosphere-asthenosphere response. Carbon dioxide is involved, but is not determinative, in the evolution of the 100,000-year glacial cycles.

Detecting regional carbon-climate feedbacks in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parazoo, N.; Koven, C.; Miller, C. E.; Commane, R.; Wofsy, S.; Frankenberg, C.; Luus, K. A.

2016-12-01

The Arctic Boreal Zone (ABZ) is one of the most important and sensitive regions on Earth in the context of climate change. Recent evidence points to ongoing changes to ecosystem metabolism and permafrost that have potential to significantly feed back to global climate processes. Our ability to detect and quantify carbon-climate feedbacks in the ABZ requires methods to measure long term changes in the rate of ecosystem carbon exchange across geographical regions and over seasonal timescales, disentangle fluxes from permafrost thaw and biosphere uptake, and resolve functional and structural characteristics of diverse ABZ ecosystems. In this study, we analyze satellite and airborne observations of atmospheric CO2 and solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence with climatically forced CO2 flux simulations to assess the detectability of Alaskan biosphere carbon cycle signals in current and future climates. A key finding is that current airborne and satellite measurements of CO2 in Alaska can accurately quantify interannual and long term changes in peak summer uptake, but are insufficient to capture regional changes in cold season emissions. As the potential for Arctic carbon budgets to become impacted by permafrost thaw and cold season emissions increases, strategies focused on year-round vertical profiles and improved spatial sampling will be needed to track carbon balance changes. We also present evidence that measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence, a variable tightly linked to terrestrial vegetation photosynthesis, provide critical information on the timing of spring photosynthetic onset and duration of growing season carbon uptake in tundra and boreal ecosystems. Comparisons to vegetation indices such as NDVI have shed light on structural and functional controls of seasonal carbon fluxes, and helped refine estimates of the overall carbon balance of the ABZ. A key theme in this study is emphasis of strategies that combine satellite, airborne, and ground based platforms to measure CO2 and fluorescence to refine our integrated understanding of the ABZ.

Mechanistic insights into a hydrate contribution to the Paleocene-Eocene carbon cycle perturbation from coupled thermohydraulic simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minshull, T. A.; Marín-Moreno, H.; Armstrong McKay, D. I.; Wilson, P. A.

2016-08-01

During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the carbon isotopic signature (δ13C) of surface carbon-bearing phases decreased abruptly by at least 2.5 to 3.0‰. This carbon isotope excursion (CIE) has been attributed to widespread methane hydrate dissociation in response to rapid ocean warming. We ran a thermohydraulic modeling code to simulate hydrate dissociation due to ocean warming for various PETM scenarios. Our results show that hydrate dissociation in response to such warming can be rapid but suggest that methane release to the ocean is modest and delayed by hundreds to thousands of years after the onset of dissociation, limiting the potential for positive feedback from emission-induced warming. In all of our simulations at least half of the dissociated hydrate methane remains beneath the seabed, suggesting that the pre-PETM hydrate inventory needed to account for all of the CIE is at least double that required for isotopic mass balance.

Climate change-driven treeline advances in the Urals alter soil microbial communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djukic, Ika; Moiseev, Pavel; Hagedorn, Frank

2016-04-01

Climatic warming may affect microbial communities and their functions either directly through increased temperatures or indirectly by changes in vegetation. Treelines are temperature-limited vegetation boundaries from tundra to forests. In unmanaged regions of the Ural mountains, there is evidence that the forest-tundra ecotone has shifted upward in response to climate warming during the 20th century. Little is known about the effects of the treeline advances on the microbial structure and function and hence they feedbacks on the belowground carbon and nitrogen cycling In our study, we aimed to estimate how ongoing upward shifts of the treeline ecotone might affect soil biodiversity and its function and hence soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in the Southern and Polar Ural mountains. Along altitudinal gradients reaching from the tundra to forests, we determined the soil microbial community composition (using Phospholipid Fatty Acids method) and quantified the activity of several extracellular enzymes involved in the C and nutrient cycling. In addition, we measured C pools in biomass and soils and quantified C and N mineralization. The results for the top soils, both in South Urals and in the Polar Ural, indicate a close link between climate change driven vegetation changes and soil microbial communities. The observed changes in microbial structure are induced through the resulting more favorable conditions than due to a shift in litter quality. The activities of chitinase were significantly higher under trees than under herbaceous plants, while activities of cellulase and protease declined with altitude from the tundra to the closed forest. In contrast to enzymatic activities, soil carbon stocks did not change significantly with altitude very likely as a result of a balancing out of increased C inputs from vegetation by an enhanced C output through mineralization with forest expansion. The accelerated organic matter turnover in the forest than in the tundra leads to higher contents of mineral N and net nitrification rates. In turn, the increasing N availability may stimulate plant growth and hence, induce a positive feedback between treeline advances and soil nitrogen cycling through soil microbial communities.

Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Froelicher, T. L.; Joos, F.

2010-12-01

The legacy of historical and the long-term impacts of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions on climate, ocean acidification, and carbon-climate feedbacks are investigated with a coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Emission commitment scenarios with zero emissions after year 2100 and 21st century emissions of 1,800, 900, and 0 gigatons of carbon are run up to year 2500. The reversibility and irreversibility of impacts is quantified by comparing anthropogenically-forced regional changes with internal, unforced climate variability. We show that the influence of historical emissions and of non-CO2 agents is largely reversible on the regional scale. Forced changes in surface temperature and precipitation become smaller than internal variability for most land and ocean grid cells in the absence of future carbon emissions. In contrast, continued carbon emissions over the 21st century cause irreversible climate change on centennial to millennial timescales in most regions and impacts related to ocean acidification and sea level rise continue to aggravate for centuries even if emissions are stopped in year 2100. Undersaturation of the Arctic surface ocean with respect to aragonite, a mineral form of calcium carbonate secreted by marine organisms, is imminent and remains widespread. The volume of supersaturated water providing habitat to calcifying organisms is reduced from preindustrial 40 to 25% in 2100 and to 10% in 2300 for the high emission case. We conclude that emission trading schemes, related to the Kyoto Process,should not permit trading between emissions of relatively short-lived agents and CO2 given the irreversible impacts of anthropogenic carbon emissions.

Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frölicher, Thomas L.; Joos, Fortunat

2010-12-01

The legacy of historical and the long-term impacts of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions on climate, ocean acidification, and carbon-climate feedbacks are investigated with a coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Emission commitment scenarios with zero emissions after year 2100 and 21st century emissions of 1,800, 900, and 0 gigatons of carbon are run up to year 2500. The reversibility and irreversibility of impacts is quantified by comparing anthropogenically-forced regional changes with internal, unforced climate variability. We show that the influence of historical emissions and of non-CO2 agents is largely reversible on the regional scale. Forced changes in surface temperature and precipitation become smaller than internal variability for most land and ocean grid cells in the absence of future carbon emissions. In contrast, continued carbon emissions over the 21st century cause irreversible climate change on centennial to millennial timescales in most regions and impacts related to ocean acidification and sea level rise continue to aggravate for centuries even if emissions are stopped in year 2100. Undersaturation of the Arctic surface ocean with respect to aragonite, a mineral form of calcium carbonate secreted by marine organisms, is imminent and remains widespread. The volume of supersaturated water providing habitat to calcifying organisms is reduced from preindustrial 40 to 25% in 2100 and to 10% in 2300 for the high emission case. We conclude that emission trading schemes, related to the Kyoto Process, should not permit trading between emissions of relatively short-lived agents and CO2 given the irreversible impacts of anthropogenic carbon emissions.

Water vs. carbon: An evaluation of SMAP soil moisture and OCO-2 solar-induced fluorescence to characterize global plant stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purdy, A. J.; Fisher, J.; Goulden, M.; Randerson, J. T.; Famiglietti, J. S.

2017-12-01

Plants link the carbon and water cycles through photosynthesis and evapotranspiration (ET). When plants take in CO2 for photosynthesis, water evaporates to the atmosphere. This exchange of carbon and water is sensitive to a number of environmental variables including: soil water availability, temperature, atmospheric water vapor, and radiation. When the atmospheric demand for water is high, plants avoid hydraulic failure by regulating the amount of water exiting leaves at the expense of inhibiting carbon uptake. Over time, stress caused by this response limits plant growth and can even result in death by carbon starvation. With increasing atmospheric demand for water, impending expansion of arid regions, and more frequent droughts, understanding how vegetation responds to regulate photosynthesis and ET is important to quantify potential feedbacks between the carbon and water cycles. Despite its importance, to what extent plants respond to stressful conditions is an open science question. An important step forward is to characterize the dominant controls in these stress events and identify geographic areas that are vulnerable to climate change. The 2015-2016 El Nino and subsequent 2016-2017 La Nina transition provides an opportunity to quantify the extent and magnitude of vegetation regulation of these carbon and water variables in response to changes in environmental conditions. We present results from a space-based analysis using global observations of solar induced fluorescence (SIF) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), soil moisture from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), and two widely used ET models (PT-JPL and MOD-16) to characterize the dominant controls on gross primary production and ET.

The Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE): Examining the complex Arctic biological-climatologic-hydrologic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, K. C.; Podest, E.; Miller, C. E.; Dinardo, S. J.

2012-12-01

Fundamental aspects of the complex Arctic biological-climatologic-hydrologic system remain poorly quantified. As a result, significant uncertainties exist in the carbon budget of the Arctic ecosystem. NASA's Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) is a currently-operational Earth Venture 1 (EV-1) mission that is examining correlations between atmospheric and surface state variables for the Alaskan terrestrial ecosystems. CARVE is conducted through a series of intensive seasonal aircraft campaigns, ground-based observations, and analysis sustained over a 5-year mission timeframe. CARVE employs a C-23 Sherpa aircraft to fly an innovative airborne remote sensing payload. This payload includes an L-band radiometer/radar system and a nadir-viewing spectrometer to deliver simultaneous measurements of land surface state variables that control gas emissions (i.e., soil moisture and inundation, freeze/thaw state, surface temperature) and total atmospheric columns of carbon dioxide, methane, and carbon monoxide. The aircraft payload also includes a gas analyzer that links greenhouse gas measurements directly to World Meteorological Organization standards and provide vertical profile information. CARVE measurement campaigns are scheduled regularly throughout the growing season each year to capture the seasonal variability in Arctic system carbon fluxes associated with the spring thaw, the summer drawdown, and the fall refreeze. Continuous ground-based measurements provide temporal and regional context as well as calibration for CARVE airborne measurements. CARVE bridges critical gaps in our knowledge and understanding of Arctic ecosystems, linkages between the Arctic hydrologic and terrestrial carbon cycles, and the feedbacks from fires and thawing permafrost. Ultimately, CARVE will provide an integrated set of data that will provide unprecedented experimental insights into Arctic carbon cycling. Portions of this work were carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and the Global Carbon Cycle: The Key Uncertainties

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Peng, T. H.; Post, W. M.; DeAngelis, D. L.; Dale, V. H.; Farrell, M. P.

1987-12-01

The biogeochemical cycling of carbon between its sources and sinks determines the rate of increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations. The observed increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} content is less than the estimated release from fossil fuel consumption and deforestation. This discrepancy can be explained by interactions between the atmosphere and other global carbon reservoirs such as the oceans, and the terrestrial biosphere including soils. Undoubtedly, the oceans have been the most important sinks for CO{sub 2} produced by man. But, the physical, chemical, and biological processes of oceans are complex and, therefore, credible estimates of CO{sub 2} uptake can probably only come from mathematical models. Unfortunately, one- and two-dimensional ocean models do not allow for enough CO{sub 2} uptake to accurately account for known releases. Thus, they produce higher concentrations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} than was historically the case. More complex three-dimensional models, while currently being developed, may make better use of existing tracer data than do one- and two-dimensional models and will also incorporate climate feedback effects to provide a more realistic view of ocean dynamics and CO{sub 2} fluxes. The instability of current models to estimate accurately oceanic uptake of CO{sub 2} creates one of the key uncertainties in predictions of atmospheric CO{sub 2} increases and climate responses over the next 100 to 200 years.

Complementary models of tree species-soil relationships in old-growth temperate forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cross, Alison; Perakis, Steven S.

2011-01-01

Ecosystem level studies identify plant soil feed backs as important controls on soil nutrient availability,particularly for nitrogen and phosphorus. Although site and species specific studies of tree species soil relationships are relatively common,comparatively fewer studies consider multiple coexisting speciesin old-growth forests across a range of sites that vary underlying soil fertility. We characterized patterns in forest floor and mineral soil nutrients associated with four common tree species across eight undisturbed old-growth forests in Oregon, USA, and used two complementary conceptual models to assess tree species soil relationships. Plant soil feedbacks that could reinforce sitelevel differences in nutrient availability were assessed using the context dependent relationships model, where by relative species based differences in each soil nutrient divergedorconvergedas nutrient status changed across sites. Tree species soil relationships that did not reflect strong feedbacks were evaluated using a site independent relationships model, where by forest floor and surface mineral soil nutrient tools differed consistently by tree species across sites,without variation in deeper mineral soils. We found that theorganically cycled elements carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus exhibited context-dependent differences among species in both forest floor and mineral soil, and most of ten followed adivergence model,where by species differences were greatest at high-nutrient sites. These patterns are consistent with the oryemphasizing biotic control of these elements through plant soil feedback mechanisms. Site independent species differences were strongest for pool so if the weather able cations calcium, magnesium, potassium,as well as phosphorus, in mineral soils. Site independent species differences in forest floor nutrients we reattributable too nespecies that displayed significant greater forest floor mass accumulation. Our finding confirmed that site-independent and context-dependent tree species-soil relationships occur simultaneouslyinold-grow the temperate forests, with context-dependent relationships strongest for organically cycled elements, and site-independent relationships strongest for weather able elements with in organic cycling phases. These models provide complementary explanations for patterns of nutrient accumulation and cycling in mixed species old-growth temperate forests.

The Ubiquitin Ligase SCF(Ucc1) Acts as a Metabolic Switch for the Glyoxylate Cycle.

PubMed

Nakatsukasa, Kunio; Nishimura, Takashi; Byrne, Stuart D; Okamoto, Michiyo; Takahashi-Nakaguchi, Azusa; Chibana, Hiroji; Okumura, Fumihiko; Kamura, Takumi

2015-07-02

Despite the crucial role played by the glyoxylate cycle in the virulence of pathogens, seed germination in plants, and sexual development in fungi, we still have much to learn about its regulation. Here, we show that a previously uncharacterized SCF(Ucc1) ubiquitin ligase mediates proteasomal degradation of citrate synthase in the glyoxylate cycle to maintain metabolic homeostasis in glucose-grown cells. Conversely, transcription of the F box subunit Ucc1 is downregulated in C2-compound-grown cells, which require increased metabolic flux for gluconeogenesis. Moreover, in vitro analysis demonstrates that oxaloacetate regenerated through the glyoxylate cycle induces a conformational change in citrate synthase and inhibits its recognition and ubiquitination by SCF(Ucc1), suggesting the existence of an oxaloacetate-dependent positive feedback loop that stabilizes citrate synthase. We propose that SCF(Ucc1)-mediated regulation of citrate synthase acts as a metabolic switch for the glyoxylate cycle in response to changes in carbon source, thereby ensuring metabolic versatility and flexibility. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Carbon Accumulation and Nitrogen Pool Recovery during Transitions from Savanna to Forest in Central Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellegrini, A.; Hoffmann, W. A.; Franco, A. C.

2014-12-01

The expansion of tropical forest into savanna may potentially be a large carbon sink, but little is known about the patterns of carbon sequestration during transitional forest formation. Moreover, it is unclear how nutrient limitation, due to extended exposure to firedriven nutrient losses, may constrain carbon accumulation. Here, we sampled plots that spanned a woody biomass gradient from savanna to transitional forest in response to differential fire protection in central Brazil. These plots were used to investigate how the process of transitional forest formation affects the size and distribution of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) pools. This was paired with a detailed analysis of the nitrogen cycle to explore possible connections between carbon accumulation and nitrogen limitation. An analysis of carbon pools in the vegetation, upper soil, and litter shows that the transition from savanna to transitional forest can result in a fourfold increase in total carbon (from 43 to 179 Mg C/ha) with a doubling of carbon stocks in the litter and soil layers. Total nitrogen in the litter and soil layers increased with forest development in both the bulk (+68%) and plant-available (+150%) pools, with the most pronounced changes occurring in the upper layers. However, the analyses of nitrate concentrations, nitrate : ammonium ratios, plant stoichiometry of carbon and nitrogen, and soil and foliar nitrogen isotope ratios suggest that a conservative nitrogen cycle persists throughout forest development, indicating that nitrogen remains in low supply relative to demand. Furthermore, the lack of variation in underlying soil type (>20 cm depth) suggests that the biogeochemical trends across the gradient are driven by vegetation. Our results provide evidence for high carbon sequestration potential with forest encroachment on savanna, but nitrogen limitation may play a large and persistent role in governing carbon sequestration in savannas or other equally fire-disturbed tropical landscapes. In turn, the link between forest development and nitrogen pool recovery creates a framework for evaluating potential positive feedbacks on savanna-forest boundaries.

Temporal evolution of mechanisms controlling ocean carbon uptake during the last glacial cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohfeld, Karen E.; Chase, Zanna

2017-08-01

Many mechanisms have been proposed to explain the ∼85-90 ppm decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) during the last glacial cycle, between 127,000 and 18,000 yrs ago. When taken together, these mechanisms can, in some models, account for the full glacial-interglacial CO2 drawdown. Most proxy-based evaluations focus on the peak of the Last Glacial Maximum, 24,000-18,000 yrs ago, and little has been done to determine the sequential timing of processes affecting CO2 during the last glacial cycle. Here we use a new compilation of sea-surface temperature records together with time-sequenced records of carbon and Nd isotopes, and other proxies to determine when the most commonly proposed mechanisms could have been important for CO2 drawdown. We find that the initial major drawdown of 35 ppm 115,000 yrs ago was most likely a result of Antarctic sea ice expansion. Importantly, changes in deep ocean circulation and mixing did not play a major role until at least 30,000 yrs after the first CO2 drawdown. The second phase of CO2 drawdown occurred ∼70,000 yrs ago and was also coincident with the first significant influences of enhanced ocean productivity due to dust. Finally, minimum concentrations of atmospheric CO2 during the Last Glacial Maximum resulted from the combination of physical and biological factors, including the barrier effect of expanded Southern Ocean sea ice, slower ventilation of the deep sea, and ocean biological feedbacks.

Divergent trajectories in tropical rainforest carbon-climate relationships: results from a new tropical forest carbon inventory database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, P.; Wieder, W.; Townsend, A.; Asner, G. P.; Cleveland, C.; Loarie, S.

2010-12-01

Intact tropical rainforests play a disproportionate role in the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle because they exchange more CO2 with the atmosphere than any other biome. As with any ecosystem, climate controls rates of C uptake and storage; however, the specific nature of climate-carbon relationships in the tropics remains poorly understood and oft-debated. Consequently, there are major uncertainties in how human-driven climate change may alter tropical C storage. One way to investigate climate - forest C interactions is via meta-analyses that examine shifts in forest C dynamics along climatic gradients. Past such analyses for the role of precipitation suggest tropical aboveground net primary production (ANPP) peaks near 2500 mm/yr, and then sharply declines in wetter regions. However, the downturn in ANPP is driven by a bias in early databases toward montane forests, which may exhibit temperature-driven biogeochemical feedbacks not present in wet lowland forests. To address this possibility, we assembled a tropical forest carbon dynamics database that includes nearly 900 different sites. We found substantial divergence in montane versus lowland forest ANPP responses to shifts in rainfall. As previous analyses imply, montane forest ANPP shows a distinct “hump-shaped” pattern, with a downturn in wetter sites. However, in contrast to prevailing assumptions, we find that lowland forest ANPP and biomass remain steady or increase with increasing rainfall. The data suggest that temperature plays a key role in determining the shape of rainfall - forest C interactions by regulating plant-soil nutrient feedbacks that underlie trends in ANPP. In montane systems, lower temperatures under wet conditions allow the development of organic horizons and the persistence of low redox conditions that reduce fertility, but in lowland systems, higher temperatures prevent organic matter accumulation, and high precipitation appears to drive rapid exchanges of nutrients between litter and soil. Furthermore, in lowland forests, we find that ANPP-rainfall relationships stratify by soil order, with the highest ANPP values occurring on nutrient-rich inceptisols, and the lowest values on nutrient poor oxisols and spodosols. Our findings have important implications for tropical forest C cycling. The data for lowland systems suggest a revision in our understanding of basic climate - forest C relations, and the possibility that the wettest of lowland forests - zones that are often subject to lower rates of deforestation and degradation - may be global hotspots for C uptake and storage. In addition, our data strongly suggest the importance of nutrient availability to determining rates of C exchange and storage in the tropics, and their response to climate, and hence the need for coupled carbon-climate models that can explicitly consider multiple biogeochemical cycles.

Forest Ecosystem Processes at the Watershed Scale: Ecosystem services, feedback and evolution in developing mountainous catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Band, Larry

2010-05-01

Mountain watersheds provide significant ecosystem services both locally and for surrounding regions, including the provision of freshwater, hydropower, carbon sequestration, habitat, forest products and recreational/aesthetic opportunities. The hydrologic connectivity along hillslopes in sloping terrain provides an upslope subsidy of water and nutrients to downslope ecosystem patches, producing characteristic ecosystem patterns of vegetation density and type, and soil biogeochemical cycling. Recent work suggests that optimal patterns of forest cover evolve along these flowpaths which maximize net primary productivity and carbon sequestration at the hillslope to catchment scale. These watersheds are under significant pressure from potential climate change, changes in forest management, increasing population and development, and increasing demand for water export. As water balance and flowpaths are altered by shifting weather patterns and new development, the spatial distribution and coupling of water, carbon and nutrient cycling will spur the evolution of different ecosystem patterns. These issues have both theoretical and practical implications for the coupling of water, carbon and nutrient cycling at the landscape level, and the potential to manage watersheds for bundled ecosystem services. If the spatial structure of the ecosystem spontaneously adjusts to maximize landscape level use of limiting resources, there may be trade-offs in the level of services provided. The well known carbon-for-water tradeoff reflects the growth of forests to maximize carbon uptake, but also transpiration which limits freshwater availability in many biomes. We provide examples of the response of bundled ecosystem services to climate and land use change in the Southern Appalachian Mountains of the United States. These mountains have very high net primary productivity, biodiversity and water yields, and provide significant freshwater resources to surrounding regions. There has been a significant increase in population in the Southern Appalachians, with new building of second homes in steep headwaters, requiring significant expansion in high altitude roads, in contrast with traditional valley bottom development. With additional increases in hydrologic extremes (heavy precipitation and drought), and progressive changes in forest composition there has been increases in hazard from flash flooding, landslide activity and degraded water quality. The evaluation of integrated watershed impacts of the expected changes in climate and land management requires an interdisciplinary approach including direct feedbacks between ecological, hydrological, geomorphic and atmospheric processes within the framework of an adapting social system. Advances in this type of interdisciplinary research require a network of ecohydrologic observatories generating long term, multi-dimensional data, and a science community working across the interface of multiple fields. Adding individual and institutional behavior as an input or interactive component of watershed ecosystems remains a challenge that spans ecological, hydrological and social science.

Closed-Loop Control of Vortex Formation in Separated Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colonius, Tim; Joe, Won Tae; MacMynowski, Doug; Rowley, Clancy; Taira, Sam; Ahuja, Sunil

2010-01-01

In order to phase lock the flow at the desired shedding cycle, particularly at Phi,best, We designed a feedback compensator. (Even though the open-loop forcing at Wf below Wn can lead to phase-locked limit cycles with a high average lift,) This feedback controller resulted in the phase-locked limit cycles that the open-loop control could not achieve for alpha=30 and 40 Particularly for alpha=40, the feedback was able to stabilize the limit cycle that was not stable with any of the open-loop periodic forcing. This results in stable phase-locked limit cycles for a larger range of forcing frequencies than the open-loop control. Also, it was shown that the feedback achieved the high-lift unsteady flow states that open-loop control could not sustain even after the states have been achieved for a long period of time.

Remodeling of intermediate metabolism in the diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum under nitrogen stress

PubMed Central

Levitan, Orly; Dinamarca, Jorge; Zelzion, Ehud; Lun, Desmond S.; Guerra, L. Tiago; Kim, Min Kyung; Kim, Joomi; Van Mooy, Benjamin A. S.; Bhattacharya, Debashish; Falkowski, Paul G.

2015-01-01

Diatoms are unicellular algae that accumulate significant amounts of triacylglycerols as storage lipids when their growth is limited by nutrients. Using biochemical, physiological, bioinformatics, and reverse genetic approaches, we analyzed how the flux of carbon into lipids is influenced by nitrogen stress in a model diatom, Phaeodactylum tricornutum. Our results reveal that the accumulation of lipids is a consequence of remodeling of intermediate metabolism, especially reactions in the tricarboxylic acid and the urea cycles. Specifically, approximately one-half of the cellular proteins are cannibalized; whereas the nitrogen is scavenged by the urea and glutamine synthetase/glutamine 2-oxoglutarate aminotransferase pathways and redirected to the de novo synthesis of nitrogen assimilation machinery, simultaneously, the photobiological flux of carbon and reductants is used to synthesize lipids. To further examine how nitrogen stress triggers the remodeling process, we knocked down the gene encoding for nitrate reductase, a key enzyme required for the assimilation of nitrate. The strain exhibits 40–50% of the mRNA copy numbers, protein content, and enzymatic activity of the wild type, concomitant with a 43% increase in cellular lipid content. We suggest a negative feedback sensor that couples photosynthetic carbon fixation to lipid biosynthesis and is regulated by the nitrogen assimilation pathway. This metabolic feedback enables diatoms to rapidly respond to fluctuations in environmental nitrogen availability. PMID:25548193

Leaf Evolution: Gases, Genes and Geochemistry

PubMed Central

BEERLING, DAVID J.

2005-01-01

• Aims This Botanical Briefing reviews how the integration of palaeontology, geochemistry and developmental biology is providing a new mechanistic framework for interpreting the 40- to 50-million-year gap between the origination of vascular land plants and the advent of large (megaphyll) leaves, a long-standing puzzle in evolutionary biology. • Scope Molecular genetics indicates that the developmental mechanisms required for leaf production in vascular plants were recruited long before the advent of large megaphylls. According to theory, this morphogenetic potential was only realized as the concentration of atmospheric CO2 declined during the late Palaeozoic. Surprisingly, plants effectively policed their own evolution since the decrease in CO2 was brought about as terrestrial floras evolved accelerating the rate of silicate rock weathering and enhancing sedimentary organic carbon burial, both of which are long-term sinks for CO2. • Conclusions The recognition that plant evolution responds to and influences CO2 over millions of years reveals the existence of an intricate web of vegetation feedbacks regulating the long-term carbon cycle. Several of these feedbacks destabilized CO2 and climate during the late Palaeozoic but appear to have quickened the pace of terrestrial plant and animal evolution at that time. PMID:15965270

The sensitivity of precipitation simulations to the soot aerosol presence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palamarchuk, Iuliia; Ivanov, Sergiy; Mahura, Alexander; Ruban, Igor

2016-04-01

The role of aerosols in nonlinear feedbacks on atmospheric processes is in a focus of many researches. Particularly, the importance of black carbon particles for evolution of physical weather including precipitation formation and release is investigated by numerical modelling as well as observation networks. However, certain discrepancies between results obtained by different methods are remained. The increasing of complexity in numerical weather modelling systems leads to enlarging a volume of output data and promises to reveal new aspects in complexity of interactions and feedbacks. The Harmonie-38h1.2 model with the AROME physical package is used to study changes in precipitation life-cycle under black carbon polluted conditions. A model configuration includes a radar data assimilation procedure on a high resolution domain covering the Scandinavia region. Model results show that precipitation rate and distribution as well as other variables of atmospheric dynamics and physics over the domain are sensitive to aerosol concentrations. The attention should also be paid to numerical aspects, such as a list of observation types involved in assimilation. The use of high resolution radar information allows to include mesoscale features in initial conditions and to decrease the growth rate of a model error with the lead time.

Leaf evolution: gases, genes and geochemistry.

PubMed

Beerling, David J

2005-09-01

This Botanical Briefing reviews how the integration of palaeontology, geochemistry and developmental biology is providing a new mechanistic framework for interpreting the 40- to 50-million-year gap between the origination of vascular land plants and the advent of large (megaphyll) leaves, a long-standing puzzle in evolutionary biology. Molecular genetics indicates that the developmental mechanisms required for leaf production in vascular plants were recruited long before the advent of large megaphylls. According to theory, this morphogenetic potential was only realized as the concentration of atmospheric CO2 declined during the late Palaeozoic. Surprisingly, plants effectively policed their own evolution since the decrease in CO2 was brought about as terrestrial floras evolved accelerating the rate of silicate rock weathering and enhancing sedimentary organic carbon burial, both of which are long-term sinks for CO2. The recognition that plant evolution responds to and influences CO(2) over millions of years reveals the existence of an intricate web of vegetation feedbacks regulating the long-term carbon cycle. Several of these feedbacks destabilized CO2 and climate during the late Palaeozoic but appear to have quickened the pace of terrestrial plant and animal evolution at that time.

The Global Carbon Cycle: It's a Small World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ineson, Philip; Milcu, Alexander; Subke, Jens-Arne; Wildman, Dennis; Anderson, Robert; Manning, Peter; Heinemeyer, Andreas

2010-05-01

Predicting future atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), together with the impacts of these changes on global climate, are some of the most urgent and important challenges facing mankind. Modelling is the only way in which such predictions can be made, leading to the current generation of increasingly complex computer simulations, with associated concerns about embedded assumptions and conflicting model outputs. Alongside analysis of past climates, the GCMs currently represent our only hope of establishing the importance of potential runaway positive feedbacks linking climate change and atmospheric greenhouse gases yet the incorporation of necessary biospheric responses into GCMs markedly increases the uncertainty of predictions. Analysis of the importance of the major components of the global carbon (C) cycle reveals that an understanding of the conditions under which the terrestrial biosphere could switch from an overall carbon (C) sink to a source is critical to our ability to make future climate predictions. Here we present an alternative approach to assessing the short term biotic (plant and soil) sensitivities to elevated temperature and atmospheric CO2 through the use of a purely physical analogue. Centred on the concept of materially-closed systems containing scaled-down ratios of the global C stocks for the atmosphere, vegetation and soil we show that, in these model systems, the terrestrial biosphere is able to buffer a rise of 3oC even when coupled to very strong CO2-temperature positive feedbacks. The system respiratory response appears to be extremely well linked to temperature and is critical in deciding atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Simulated anthropogenic emissions of CO2 into the model systems showed an initial corresponding increase in atmospheric CO2 but, somewhat surprisingly, CO2 concentrations levelled off at ca. 480 p.p.m.v., despite continuing additions of CO2. Experiments were performed in which reversion of atmospheric temperatures, or cessation of CO2 additions, showed rapid and proportionate decreases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The results indicate that short term terrestrial feedbacks are not sufficient to induce a CO2-temperature runaway scenario and suggest that predictions of atmospheric CO2 by current GCMs may under-estimate the CO2 fertilisation effect on plants and, hence, over-estimate future atmospheric CO2 increases. Perhaps, more importantly, the experiments show that the impacts of imposed elevated CO2 and temperature increase can be reversed. Whilst clearly representing a simplified version of terrestrial CO2 dynamics, it is proposed that closed system research represents a new form of test-bed for validation of processes represented within digital global CO2 models.

The response of vegetation to rising CO2 concentrations plays an important role in future changes in the hydrological cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Tao; Dong, Wenjie; Ji, Dong; Dai, Tanlong; Yang, Shili; Wei, Ting

2018-04-01

The effects of increasing CO2 concentrations on plant and carbon cycle have been extensively investigated; however, the effects of changes in plants on the hydrological cycle are still not fully understood. Increases in CO2 modify the stomatal conductance and water use of plants, which may have a considerable effect on the hydrological cycle. Using the carbon-climate feedback experiments from CMIP5, we estimated the responses of plants and hydrological cycle to rising CO2 concentrations to double of pre-industrial levels without climate change forcing. The mode results show that rising CO2 concentrations had a significant influence on the hydrological cycle by changing the evaporation and transpiration of plants and soils. The increases in the area covered by plant leaves result in the increases in vegetation evaporation. Besides, the physiological effects of stomatal closure were stronger than the opposite effects of changes in plant structure caused by the increases in LAI (leaf area index), which results in the decrease of transpiration. These two processes lead to overall decreases in evaporation, and then contribute to increases in soil moisture and total runoff. In the dry areas, the stronger increase in LAI caused the stronger increases in vegetation evaporation and then lead to the overall decreases in P - E (precipitation minus evaporation) and soil moisture. However, the soil moisture in sub-arid and wet areas would increase, and this may lead to the soil moisture deficit worse in the future in the dry areas. This study highlights the need to consider the different responses of plants and the hydrological cycle to rising CO2 in dry and wet areas in future water resources management, especially in water-limited areas.

Dam busy: beavers and their influence on the structure and function of river systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsen, J.; Larsen, A.; Lane, S. N.

2017-12-01

Beavers (Castor fiber, Castor canadensis) are the most influential mammalian ecosystem engineer, heavily modifying rivers and floodplains and influencing the hydrology, geomorphology, carbon and nutrient cycling, and ecology. They do this by constructing dams, digging canals and burrows, felling trees and introducing wood into streams, which in turn impounds water, raises shallow water tables, and alters the partitioning of the water balance, sediment transport and channel patters, biogeochemical cycling, and aquatic and terrestrial habitats. However, largely in the absence of predators, beaver numbers have been rapidly increasing throughout Europe since the 1980s, but also in parts of the US and South America, prompting a need to comprehensively review the current state of knowledge on how beavers influence the structure and function of river systems. Here, we synthesize the overall impacts on hydrology, geomorphology, biogeochemistry, and aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. We then examine the key feedbacks and overlaps between these changes induced by beavers, finding that modifications to the longitudinal connectivity drive many key process feedbacks. However, the magnitude of these feedbacks is also heavily dependent on the landscape and climatic context, with the ability to promote lateral connectivity determining the extent of beaver impacts as stream order increases. Crucially, beavers shape a river corridor, introducing distinct processes and feedbacks that would have existed prior to the historical collapse of beaver populations. There is thus a need to adapt current river management and restoration practices such that they can accommodate and enhance the ecosystem engineering services provided by beavers. We summarize key knowledge gaps that remain in our understanding of beaver impacts, which help map an interdisciplinary future research agenda.

Response of the carbon cycle in an intermediate complexity model to the different climate configurations of the last nine interglacials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouttes, Nathaelle; Swingedouw, Didier; Roche, Didier M.; Sanchez-Goni, Maria F.; Crosta, Xavier

2018-03-01

Atmospheric CO2 levels during interglacials prior to the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE, ˜ 430 ka BP) were around 40 ppm lower than after the MBE. The reasons for this difference remain unclear. A recent hypothesis proposed that changes in oceanic circulation, in response to different external forcings before and after the MBE, might have increased the ocean carbon storage in pre-MBE interglacials, thus lowering atmospheric CO2. Nevertheless, no quantitative estimate of this hypothesis has been produced up to now. Here we use an intermediate complexity model including the carbon cycle to evaluate the response of the carbon reservoirs in the atmosphere, ocean and land in response to the changes of orbital forcings, ice sheet configurations and atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last nine interglacials. We show that the ocean takes up more carbon during pre-MBE interglacials in agreement with data, but the impact on atmospheric CO2 is limited to a few parts per million. Terrestrial biosphere is simulated to be less developed in pre-MBE interglacials, which reduces the storage of carbon on land and increases atmospheric CO2. Accounting for different simulated ice sheet extents modifies the vegetation cover and temperature, and thus the carbon reservoir distribution. Overall, atmospheric CO2 levels are lower during these pre-MBE simulated interglacials including all these effects, but the magnitude is still far too small. These results suggest a possible misrepresentation of some key processes in the model, such as the magnitude of ocean circulation changes, or the lack of crucial mechanisms or internal feedbacks, such as those related to permafrost, to fully account for the lower atmospheric CO2 concentrations during pre-MBE interglacials.

Toward Reducing Uncertainties in Biospheric Carbon Uptake in the American West: An Atmospheric Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, J. C.; Stephens, B. B.; Mallia, D.; Wu, D.; Jacobson, A. R.

2015-12-01

Despite the need for an understanding of terrestrial biospheric carbon fluxes to account for carbon cycle feedbacks and predict future CO2 concentrations, knowledge of such fluxes at the regional scale remains poor. This is particularly true in mountainous areas, where lack of observations combined with difficulties in their interpretation lead to significant uncertainties. Yet mountainous regions are also where significant forest cover and biomass are found—areas that have the potential to serve as carbon sinks. In particular, understanding carbon fluxes in the American West is of critical importance for the U.S. carbon budget, as the large area and biomass indicate potential for carbon sequestration. However, disturbances such as drought, insect outbreak, and wildfires in this region can introduce significant perturbations to the carbon cycle and thereby affect the amount of carbon sequestered by vegetation in the Rockies. To date, there have been few atmospheric CO2 observations in the American Rockies due to a combination of difficulties associated with logistics and interpretation of the measurements in the midst of complex terrain. Among the few sites are those associated with NCAR's Regional Atmospheric Continuous CO2 Network in the Rocky Mountains (Rocky RACCOON). As CO2 observations in mountainous areas increase in the future, it is imperative that they can be properly interpreted to yield information about biospheric carbon fluxes. In this paper, we will present CO2 observations from RACCOON, along with atmospheric simulations that attempt to extract information about biospheric carbon fluxes in the Western U.S. from these observations. We show that atmospheric models can significantly misinterpret the CO2 observations, leading to large errors in the retrieved biospheric fluxes, due to erroneous atmospheric flows. Recommendations for ways to minimize such errors and properly link the CO2 concentrations to biospheric fluxes are discussed.

Estimating ecosystem carbon change in the Conterminous United States based on 40 years of land-use change and disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleeter, B. M.; Rayfield, B.; Liu, J.; Sherba, J.; Daniel, C.; Frid, L.; Wilson, T. S.; Zhu, Z.

2016-12-01

Since 1970, the combined changes in land use, land management, climate, and natural disturbances have dramatically altered land cover in the United States, resulting in the potential for significant changes in terrestrial carbon storage and flux between ecosystems and the atmosphere. Processes including urbanization, agricultural expansion and contraction, and forest management have had impacts - both positive and negative - on the amount of natural vegetation, the age structure of forests, and the amount of impervious cover. Anthropogenic change coupled with climate-driven changes in natural disturbance regimes, particularly the frequency and severity of wildfire, together determine the spatio-temporal patterns of land change and contribute to changing ecosystem carbon dynamics. Quantifying this effect and its associated uncertainties is fundamental to developing a rigorous and transparent carbon monitoring and assessment programs. However, large-scale systematic inventories of historical land change and their associated uncertainties are sparse. To address this need, we present a newly developed modeling framework, the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS). The LUCAS model integrates readily available high quality, empirical land-change data into a stochastic space-time simulation model representing land change feedbacks on carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. We applied the LUCAS model to estimate regional scale changes in carbon storage, atmospheric flux, and net biome production in 84 ecological regions of the conterminous United States for the period 1970-2015. The model was parameterized using a newly available set of high resolution (30 m) land-change data, compiled from Landsat remote sensing imagery, including estimates of uncertainty. Carbon flux parameters for each ecological region were derived from the IBIS dynamic global vegetation model with full carbon cycle accounting. This paper presents our initial findings describing regional and temporal changes and variability in carbon storage and flux resulting from land use change and disturbance between 1973 and 2015. Additionally, based on stochastic simulations we quantify and present key sources of uncertainty in the estimation of terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics.

Characterizing soil moisture and snow cover effects on boreal-arctic soil freeze/thaw dynamics and cold-season carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Y.; Kimball, J. S.; Moghaddam, M.; Chen, R. H.; Reichle, R. H.; Oechel, W. C.; Zona, D.

2017-12-01

The contribution of cold season respiration to boreal-arctic carbon cycle and its potential feedbacks to climate change remain poorly quantified. Here, we developed an integrated modeling framework combining airborne low frequency (L+P-band) airborne radar retrievals and landscape level (≥1km) environmental observations from satellite optical and microwave sensors with a detailed permafrost carbon model to investigate underlying processes controlling soil freeze/thaw (FT) dynamics and cold season carbon emissions. The permafrost carbon model simulates the snow and soil thermal dynamics with soil water phase change included and accounts for soil carbon decomposition up to 3m below surface. Local-scale ( 50m) radar retrievals of active layer thickness (ALT), soil moisture and freeze/thaw (FT) status from NASA airborne UAVSAR and AirMOSS sensors are used to inform the model parameterizations of soil moisture effects on soil FT dynamics, and scaling properties of active layer processes. Both tower observed land-atmosphere fluxes and atmospheric CO2 measurements are used to evaluate the model processes controlling cold season carbon respiration, particularly the effects of snow cover and soil moisture on deep soil carbon emissions during the early cold season. Initial comparisons showed that the model can well capture the seasonality of cold season respiration in both tundra and boreal forest areas, with large emissions in late fall and early winter and gradually diminishing throughout the winter. Model sensitivity analyses are used to clarify how changes in soil thermodynamics at depth control the magnitude and seasonality of cold season respiration, and how a deeper unfrozen active layer with warming may contribute to changes in cold season respiration. Model outputs include ALT and regional carbon fluxes at 1-km resolution spanning recent satellite era (2001-present) across Alaska. These results will be used to quantify cold season respiration contributions to the annual carbon cycle and help close the boreal-arctic annual carbon budget.

Fire in Australian savannas: from leaf to landscape.

PubMed

Beringer, Jason; Hutley, Lindsay B; Abramson, David; Arndt, Stefan K; Briggs, Peter; Bristow, Mila; Canadell, Josep G; Cernusak, Lucas A; Eamus, Derek; Edwards, Andrew C; Evans, Bradley J; Fest, Benedikt; Goergen, Klaus; Grover, Samantha P; Hacker, Jorg; Haverd, Vanessa; Kanniah, Kasturi; Livesley, Stephen J; Lynch, Amanda; Maier, Stefan; Moore, Caitlin; Raupach, Michael; Russell-Smith, Jeremy; Scheiter, Simon; Tapper, Nigel J; Uotila, Petteri

2015-01-01

Savanna ecosystems comprise 22% of the global terrestrial surface and 25% of Australia (almost 1.9 million km2) and provide significant ecosystem services through carbon and water cycles and the maintenance of biodiversity. The current structure, composition and distribution of Australian savannas have coevolved with fire, yet remain driven by the dynamic constraints of their bioclimatic niche. Fire in Australian savannas influences both the biophysical and biogeochemical processes at multiple scales from leaf to landscape. Here, we present the latest emission estimates from Australian savanna biomass burning and their contribution to global greenhouse gas budgets. We then review our understanding of the impacts of fire on ecosystem function and local surface water and heat balances, which in turn influence regional climate. We show how savanna fires are coupled to the global climate through the carbon cycle and fire regimes. We present new research that climate change is likely to alter the structure and function of savannas through shifts in moisture availability and increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in turn altering fire regimes with further feedbacks to climate. We explore opportunities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions from savanna ecosystems through changes in savanna fire management. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Soil moisture influenced the interannual variation in temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon mineralization in the Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Guo, S.; Zhao, M.; Du, L.; Li, R.; Jiang, J.; Wang, R.; Li, N.

2015-01-01

Temperature sensitivity of SOC mineralization (Q10) determines how strong the feedback from global warming may be on the atmospheric CO2 concentration, thus understanding the factors influencing the interannual variation in Q10 is important to accurately estimate the local soil carbon cycle. In situ SOC mineralization was measured using an automated CO2 flux system (Li-8100) in long-term bare fallow soil in the Loess Plateau (35° 12' N, 107° 40' E) in Changwu, Shaanxi, China form 2008 to 2013. The results showed that the annual cumulative SOC mineralization ranged from 226 to 298 g C m-2 y-1 (mean =253 g C m-2 y-1; CV =13%), annual Q10 ranged from 1.48 to 1.94 (mean =1.70; CV =10%), and annual soil moisture content ranged from 38.6 to 50.7% WFPS (mean =43.8% WFPS; CV =11%), which were mainly affected by the frequency and distribution of precipitation. Annual Q10 showed a negative quadratic correlation with soil moisture. In conclusion, understanding of the relationships between interannual variation in Q10 of SOC mineralization, soil moisture and precipitation is important to accurately estimate the local carbon cycle, especially under the changing climate.

Impact of hydrological variations on modeling of peatland CO2 fluxes: Results from the North American Carbon Program site synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulman, Benjamin N.; Desai, Ankur R.; Schroeder, Nicole M.; Ricciuto, Dan; Barr, Alan; Richardson, Andrew D.; Flanagan, Lawrence B.; Lafleur, Peter M.; Tian, Hanqin; Chen, Guangsheng; Grant, Robert F.; Poulter, Benjamin; Verbeeck, Hans; Ciais, Philippe; Ringeval, Bruno; Baker, Ian T.; Schaefer, Kevin; Luo, Yiqi; Weng, Ensheng

2012-03-01

Northern peatlands are likely to be important in future carbon cycle-climate feedbacks due to their large carbon pools and vulnerability to hydrological change. Use of non-peatland-specific models could lead to bias in modeling studies of peatland-rich regions. Here, seven ecosystem models were used to simulate CO2fluxes at three wetland sites in Canada and the northern United States, including two nutrient-rich fens and one nutrient-poor,sphagnum-dominated bog, over periods between 1999 and 2007. Models consistently overestimated mean annual gross ecosystem production (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) at all three sites. Monthly flux residuals (simulated - observed) were correlated with measured water table for GEP and ER at the two fen sites, but were not consistently correlated with water table at the bog site. Models that inhibited soil respiration under saturated conditions had less mean bias than models that did not. Modeled diurnal cycles agreed well with eddy covariance measurements at fen sites, but overestimated fluxes at the bog site. Eddy covariance GEP and ER at fens were higher during dry periods than during wet periods, while models predicted either the opposite relationship or no significant difference. At the bog site, eddy covariance GEP did not depend on water table, while simulated GEP was higher during wet periods. Carbon cycle modeling in peatland-rich regions could be improved by incorporating wetland-specific hydrology and by inhibiting GEP and ER under saturated conditions. Bogs and fens likely require distinct plant and soil parameterizations in ecosystem models due to differences in nutrients, peat properties, and plant communities.

Report on SNL RCBC control options

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ponciroli, R.; Vilim, R. B.

The attractive performance of the S-CO 2 recompression cycle arises from the thermo-physical properties of carbon dioxide near the critical point. However, to ensure efficient operation of the cycle near the critical point, precise control of the heat removal rate by the Printed Circuit Heat Exchanger (PCHE) upstream of the main compressor is required. Accomplishing this task is not trivial because of the large variations in fluid properties with respect to temperature and pressure near the critical point. The use of a model-based approach for the design of a robust feedback regulator is being investigated to achieve acceptable control ofmore » heat removal rate at different operating conditions. A first step in this procedure is the development of a dynamic model of the heat exchanger. In this work, a one-dimensional (1-D) control-oriented model of the PCHE was developed using the General Plant Analyzer and System Simulator (GPASS) code. GPASS is a transient simulation code that supports analysis and control of power conversion cycles based on the S-CO 2 Brayton cycle. This modeling capability was used this fiscal year to analyze experiment data obtained from the heat exchanger in the SNL recompression Brayton cycle. The analysis suggested that the error in the water flowrate measurement was greater than required for achieving precise control of heat removal rate. Accordingly, a new water flowmeter was installed, significantly improving the quality of the measurement. Comparison of heat exchanger measurements in subsequent experiments with code simulations yielded good agreement establishing a reliable basis for the use of the GPASS PCHE model for future development of a model-based feedback controller.« less

Interactions between tectonics, silicate weathering, and climate explored with carbon cycle modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penman, D. E.; Caves Rugenstein, J. K.; Ibarra, D. E.; Winnick, M.

2017-12-01

Earth's long-term carbon cycle is thought to benefit from a stabilizing negative feedback in the form of CO2 consumption by the chemical weathering of silicate minerals: during periods of elevated atmospheric pCO2, chemical weathering rates increase, thus consuming more atmospheric CO2 and cooling global climate, whereas during periods of low pCO2, weathering rates decrease, allowing buildup of CO2 in the atmosphere and warming. At equilibrium, CO2 consumption by silicate weathering balances volcanic CO2 degassing at a specific atmospheric pCO2 dictated by the relationship between total silicate weathering rate and pCO2: Earth's "weathering curve." We use numerical carbon cycle modeling to demonstrate that the shape and slope of the weathering curve is crucial to understanding proposed tectonic controls on pCO2 and climate. First, the shape of the weathering curve dictates the equilibrium response of the carbon cycle to changes in the rate of background volcanic/solid Earth CO2 degassing, which has been suggested to vary significantly with plate tectonic reorganizations over geologic timescales. Second, we demonstrate that if tectonic events can significantly change the weathering curve, this can act as an effective driver of pCO2 and climate on tectonic timescales by changing the atmospheric pCO2 at which silicate weathering balances a constant volcanic/solid Earth degassing rate. Finally, we review the complex interplay of environmental factors that affect modern weathering rates in the field and highlight how the resulting uncertainty surrounding the shape of Earth's weathering curve significantly hampers our ability to quantitatively predict the response of pCO2 and climate to tectonic forcing, and thus represents a substantial knowledge gap in Earth science. We conclude with strategies for closing this knowledge gap by using precise paleoclimatic reconstructions of intervals with known tectonic forcings.

Soil Biogeochemistry in the Ent DGVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharecha, P. A.; Kiang, N. Y.; Aleinov, I.; Moorcroft, P.; Koster, R.

2007-12-01

As the global climate continues to warm in the 21st century, it will be vital to assess the degree of carbon cycle feedbacks from the terrestrial biosphere, particularly the soil. Global soil carbon stocks, which amount to approximately double the carbon stored in vegetation, could provide either positive or negative climate feedbacks, depending on a given ecosystem's response to warming. To predict changes in net terrestrial CO2 fluxes and belowground organic carbon storage, we have developed and evaluated a soil biogeochemistry submodel for the Ent dynamic global vegetation model currently being tested within the GISS GCM. It is a modified version of the soil submodel in the CASA biosphere model (Potter et al., Glob. Biogeoch. Cyc. 7, 1993). We have enhanced it to allow for explicit depth structure (2 soil layers, 0-30 cm and 30-100 cm), first-order inter-layer (vertical) soil organic carbon transport, and a variable-Q10 temperature dependence for soil microbial respiration. We have tested the soil model in numerous offline runs. To spin up the simulated carbon pools offline, we conducted multi-century runs using meteorological and ecological data from various FLUXNET field sites that represent 7 of the 8 GISS GCM plant functional types: tundra, grassland, shrubland, savanna, deciduous forest, evergreen needleleaf forest, and tropical rainforest (the eighth, cropland, will be dealt with in a separate study). We then compare the magnitudes of the simulated spun-up soil pools to soil carbon stock data from these field sites as well as the biome-aggregated data from Post et al. (Nature 317, 1985). Net ecosystem CO2 fluxes and soil respiration are also compared to site-specific measurements where available. Preliminary results suggest that simulated fluxes are reasonably close to measured values, but simulated carbon storage tends to be lower than the measurements. In addition to site-specific comparisons, we discuss the broader implications of our results, e.g., the effects of including explicit depth structure and inter-layer soil carbon transport on simulated soil respiration, carbon storage, and estimation of the global carbon budget.

Modelling terrestrial nitrous oxide emissions and implications for climate feedback.

PubMed

Xu-Ri; Prentice, I Colin; Spahni, Renato; Niu, Hai Shan

2012-10-01

Ecosystem nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions respond to changes in climate and CO2 concentration as well as anthropogenic nitrogen (N) enhancements. Here, we aimed to quantify the responses of natural ecosystem N2O emissions to multiple environmental drivers using a process-based global vegetation model (DyN-LPJ). We checked that modelled annual N2O emissions from nonagricultural ecosystems could reproduce field measurements worldwide, and experimentally observed responses to step changes in environmental factors. We then simulated global N2O emissions throughout the 20th century and analysed the effects of environmental changes. The model reproduced well the global pattern of N2O emissions and the observed responses of N cycle components to changes in environmental factors. Simulated 20th century global decadal-average soil emissions were c. 8.2-9.5 Tg N yr(-1) (or 8.3-10.3 Tg N yr(-1) with N deposition). Warming and N deposition contributed 0.85±0.41 and 0.80±0.14 Tg N yr(-1), respectively, to an overall upward trend. Rising CO2 also contributed, in part, through a positive interaction with warming. The modelled temperature dependence of N2O emission (c. 1 Tg N yr(-1) K(-1)) implies a positive climate feedback which, over the lifetime of N2O (114 yr), could become as important as the climate-carbon cycle feedback caused by soil CO2 release. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Eleanor J.; Ekici, Altug; Huang, Ye; Chadburn, Sarah E.; Huntingford, Chris; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Peng, Shushi; Krinner, Gerhard

2017-06-01

The land surface models JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, two versions) and ORCHIDEE-MICT (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems), each with a revised representation of permafrost carbon, were coupled to the Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies (IMOGEN) intermediate-complexity climate and ocean carbon uptake model. IMOGEN calculates atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and local monthly surface climate for a given emission scenario with the land-atmosphere CO2 flux exchange from either JULES or ORCHIDEE-MICT. These simulations include feedbacks associated with permafrost carbon changes in a warming world. Both IMOGEN-JULES and IMOGEN-ORCHIDEE-MICT were forced by historical and three alternative future-CO2-emission scenarios. Those simulations were performed for different climate sensitivities and regional climate change patterns based on 22 different Earth system models (ESMs) used for CMIP3 (phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), allowing us to explore climate uncertainties in the context of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks. Three future emission scenarios consistent with three representative concentration pathways were used: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Paired simulations with and without frozen carbon processes were required to quantify the impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on climate change. The additional warming from the permafrost carbon feedback is between 0.2 and 12 % of the change in the global mean temperature (ΔT) by the year 2100 and 0.5 and 17 % of ΔT by 2300, with these ranges reflecting differences in land surface models, climate models and emissions pathway. As a percentage of ΔT, the permafrost carbon feedback has a greater impact on the low-emissions scenario (RCP2.6) than on the higher-emissions scenarios, suggesting that permafrost carbon should be taken into account when evaluating scenarios of heavy mitigation and stabilization. Structural differences between the land surface models (particularly the representation of the soil carbon decomposition) are found to be a larger source of uncertainties than differences in the climate response. Inertia in the permafrost carbon system means that the permafrost carbon response depends on the temporal trajectory of warming as well as the absolute amount of warming. We propose a new policy-relevant metric - the frozen carbon residence time (FCRt) in years - that can be derived from these complex land surface models and used to quantify the permafrost carbon response given any pathway of global temperature change.

Mapping the Habitable Zone of Exoplanets with a 2D Energy Balance Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Nicole Taylor; Dr. Lisa Kaltenegger, Dr. Ramses Ramirez

2018-01-01

Traditionally, the habitable zone has been defined as the distance at which liquid water could exist on the surface of a rocky planet. However, different complexity models (simplified and fast:1D, and complex and time-intense:3D) models derive different boundaries for the habitable zone. The goal of this project was to test a new intermediate complexity 2D Energy Balance model, add a new ice albedo feedback mechanism, and derive the habitable zone boundaries. After completing this first project, we also studied how other feedback mechanisms, such as the presence of clouds and the carbonate-silicate cycle, effected the location of the habitable zone boundaries using this 2D model. This project was completed as part of a 2017 summer REU program hosted by Cornell's Center for Astrophysics and Plantary Sciecne and in partnership with the Carl Sagan Institute.

Biogeochemical Cycling and Sea Ice Dynamics in the Bering Sea across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Detlef, H.; Sosdian, S. M.; Belt, S. T.; Smik, L.; Lear, C. H.; Hall, I. R.; Kender, S.; Leng, M. J.; Husum, K.; Cabedo-Sanz, P.

2017-12-01

Today the Bering Sea is characterized by high primary productivity (PP) along the eastern shelf, maintained by CO2 and nutrient rich upwelled deep waters and nutrient release during spring sea ice melting. As such, low oxygen concentrations are pervasive in mid-depth waters. Changes in ventilation and export productivity in the past have been shown to impact this oxygen minimum zone. On glacial/interglacial (G/IG) timescales sea ice formation plays a pivotal role on intermediate water ventilation with evidence pointing to the formation of North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) in the Bering Sea during Pleistocene glacial intervals. In addition, sea ice plays a significant role in both long- and short-term climate change via associated feedback mechanisms. Thus, records of sea ice dynamics and biogeochemical cycling in the Bering Sea are necessary to fully understand the interaction between PP, circulation patterns, and past G/IG climates with potential implications for the North Pacific carbon cycle. Here we use a multi-proxy approach to study sea ice dynamics and bottom water oxygenation, across three intervals prior to, across, and after the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT, 1.2-0.7 Ma) from International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1343. The MPT, most likely driven by internal climate mechanisms, is ideal to study changes in sea ice dynamics and sedimentary redox conditions on orbital timescales and to investigate the implications for associated feedback mechanisms. The sea ice record, based on various biomarkers, including IP25, shows substantial increase in sea ice extent across the MPT and the occurrence of a late-glacial/deglacial sea ice spike, with consequences for glacial NPIW formation and land glacier retreat via the temperature-precipitation feedback. U/Mn of foraminiferal authigenic coatings, a novel proxy for bottom water oxygenation, also shows distinct variability on G/IG timescales across the MPT, most likely a result of PP and water mass changes in relation to sea ice dynamics. Additional records of benthic foraminiferal assemblages and biogenic opal accumulation rates further elucidate the influence of PP on U/Mn, which can help to investigate the strength of NPIW formation along the eastern Bering slope, important for CO2 outgassing and abyssal North Pacific carbon storage.

Climate-agriculture interactions and needs for policy making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, J. G.

2010-12-01

Research exploring climate change interactions with agriculture has evolved from simplistic “delta T” simulation experiments with crop models to work highlighting the importance of climate variability and extreme events, which characterized the negative impacts possible if no adaptation occurred. There soon followed consideration of socioeconomic factors allowing for adaptive strategies that are likely to mitigate the worst case outcomes originally projected. At the same time, improved understanding of biophysical feedbacks has led to a greater recognition of the role that agriculture plays in modifying climate, with a great deal of attention recently paid to strategies to enhance carbon sequestration in agricultural systems. Advances in models of biogeochemical cycling applied to agronomic systems have allowed for new insights into greenhouse gas emissions and sinks associated with current, conventional farming systems. Yet this work is still relatively simplistic in that it seldom addresses interactions between climate dynamics, adoption of mitigation strategies, and feedbacks to the climate system and the surrounding environment. In order for agricultural policy to be developed that provides incentives for appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies over the next 50 years, a systems approach needs to be utilized that addresses feedbacks and interactions at field, farm and regional scales in a broader environmental context. Interactions between carbon and climate constraints on the one hand, and environmental impacts related to water, nutrient runoff, and pest control all imply a transformation of farming practices that is as of yet not well defined. Little attention has been paid to studying the implications of “alternative” farming strategies such as organic systems, intensive rotational grazing of livestock, or increases in the perennial component of farmscapes, all of which may be necessary responses to energy and other environmental constraints over the coming century, interacting with a changing climate. Examples of interactions that need further exploration include the degree to which increases in soil organic matter to enhance carbon sequestration will improve system resilience and help mitigate the effects of an increase in climate variability, and how we can optimize the role of below-ground microbial communities in methane and nitrous-oxide emissions and sinks as well as in nutrient cycling and plant-water relations. These and other key areas where agroecosystem research is needed to advance policy will be discussed.

Towards a community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackmon, M.

2003-04-01

The Community Climate System Model, version 2 (CCSM2), was released in June 2002. CCSM2 has several new components and features, which I will discuss briefly. I will also show a few results from a multi-century equilibrium run with this model, emphasizing the improvements over the earlier simulation using the original CSM. A few flaws and inadequacies in CCSM2 have been identified. I will also discuss briefly work underway to improve the model and present results, if available. CCSM2, with improvements, will be the basis for the development of a Community Earth System Model (CESM). The highest priority for expansion of the model involves incorporation of biogeosciences into the coupled model system, with emphasis given to the carbon, nitrogen and iron cycles. The overall goal of the biogeosciences project within CESM is to understand the regulation of planetary energetics, planetary ecology, and planetary metabolism through exchanges of energy, momentum, and materials among atmosphere, land, and ocean, and the response of the climate system through these processes to changes in land cover and land use. In particular, this research addresses how biogeochemical coupling of carbon, nitrogen, and iron cycles affects climate and how human perturbations of these cycles alter climate. To accomplish these goals, the Community Land Model, the land component of CCSM2, is being developed to include river routing, carbon and nitrogen cycles, emissions of mineral aerosols and biogenic volatile organic compounds, dry deposition of various gases, and vegetation dynamics. The carbon and nitrogen cycles are being implemented using parameterizations developed as part of a state-of-the-art ecosystem biogeochemistry model. The primary goal of this research is to provide an accurate net flux of CO2 between the land and the atmosphere so that CESM can be used to study the dynamics of the coupled climate-carbon system. Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds are also based on a state-of-the-art emissions model and depend on plant type, leaf area index, photosynthetically active radiation, and leaf temperature. Dust emissions and deposition are being developed to implement a fully coupled dust cycle in CCSM, including the radiative effects of dust and carbon feedbacks related to fertilization of ocean and terrestrial ecosystems. Dust mobilization depends on surface wind speed, soil moisture, plant cover, and soil texture. Dust dry deposition processes include sedimentation and turbulent mix-out. A major research focus is how natural and human-mediated changes in land cover and ecosystem functions alter surface energy fluxes, the hydrological cycle, and biogeochemical cycles. Human land uses include conversion of natural vegetation to cropland, soil degradation, and urbanization. Climate feedbacks associated with natural changes in land cover are being assessed by developing and implementing a model of natural vegetation dynamics for use with the Community Land Model. Development of a marine ecosystem model is also underway. The ecosystem model is based on the global, mixed-layer marine ecosystem model of Moore et al., which includes parameterizations for such things as iron limitation and scavenging, zooplankton grazing, nitrogen fixation, calcification, and ballast-based remineralization. A series of experiments is being planned to assess the coupling of the ecology to the biogeochemistry, to adequately tune some of the model parameters that are poorly constrained by data, to explore new parameterizations and processes (e.g., riverine and atmospheric inputs of nutrients), and to conduct uncoupled application studies (e.g., deliberate carbon sequestration, retrospective historical simulations, iron-dust deposition response). Longer term plans include investigating biogeochemical processes in the coastal zone and how to incorporate these processes into a global ocean model, either through subgrid-scale parameterizations or model nesting. A Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model(WACCM) is being developed. The vertical extent of the model is 150 km at present, but extension to 500 km is eventually expected. Interactive chemistry is being incorporated. This model will be used as the atmospheric component of CESM for some experiments. One expected application is the study of solar variability and its impact on climate variability in the troposphere and at the atmosphere, ocean, land interface. Preliminary results using some of these model components will be shown. A timeline for development and use of the models will be given.

Grassland Soil Carbon Responses to Nitrogen Additions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofmockel, K. S.; Tfailly, M.; Callister, S.; Bramer, L.; Thompson, A.

2017-12-01

Using a long-term continental scale experiment, we tested if increases in nitrogen (N) inputs augment the accumulation of plant and microbial residues onto mineral soil surfaces. This research investigates N effects on molecular biogeochemistry across six sites from the Nutrient Network (NutNet) experiment. The coupling between concurrently changing carbon (C) and N cycles remains a key uncertainty in understanding feedbacks between the terrestrial C cycle and climate change. Existing models do not consider the full suite of linked C-N processes, particularly belowground, that could drive future C-climate feedbacks. Soil harbors a wealth of diverse organic molecules, most of which have not been measured in hypothesis driven field research. For the first time we systematically assess the chemical composition of soil organic matter (SOM) and functional characteristics of the soil microbiome, to enhance our understanding of the molecular underpinnings of ecosystem C and N cycling. We have acquired soils from 5 ecosystem experiments across the US that have been subjected to 8 years of N addition treatments. These soils have been analyzed for chemical composition to identify how the soil fertility and stability is altered by N fertilization. We found distinct SOM signatures from our field experiments and shifts in soil chemistry in response to 8 years of N fertilization. Across all sites, we found the molecular composition of SOM varied with clay content, supporting the importance of soil mineralogy in the accumulation of specific chemical classes of SOM. While many molecules were common across sites, we discovered a suite of molecules that were site specific. N fertilization had a significant effect on SOM composition. Differences between control and N amended plots were greater in sites rich in lipids and more complex molecules, compared to sites with SOM rich in amino-sugar and protein like substances. Our results have important implications for how SOM is represented in models and the possibility for incorporating molecular understanding to advance ecosystem predictions.

Influence of accurate and inaccurate 'split-time' feedback upon 10-mile time trial cycling performance.

PubMed

Wilson, Mathew G; Lane, Andy M; Beedie, Chris J; Farooq, Abdulaziz

2012-01-01

The objective of the study is to examine the impact of accurate and inaccurate 'split-time' feedback upon a 10-mile time trial (TT) performance and to quantify power output into a practically meaningful unit of variation. Seven well-trained cyclists completed four randomised bouts of a 10-mile TT on a SRM™ cycle ergometer. TTs were performed with (1) accurate performance feedback, (2) without performance feedback, (3) and (4) false negative and false positive 'split-time' feedback showing performance 5% slower or 5% faster than actual performance. There were no significant differences in completion time, average power output, heart rate or blood lactate between the four feedback conditions. There were significantly lower (p < 0.001) average [Formula: see text] (ml min(-1)) and [Formula: see text] (l min(-1)) scores in the false positive (3,485 ± 596; 119 ± 33) and accurate (3,471 ± 513; 117 ± 22) feedback conditions compared to the false negative (3,753 ± 410; 127 ± 27) and blind (3,772 ± 378; 124 ± 21) feedback conditions. Cyclists spent a greater amount of time in a '20 watt zone' 10 W either side of average power in the negative feedback condition (fastest) than the accurate feedback (slowest) condition (39.3 vs. 32.2%, p < 0.05). There were no significant differences in the 10-mile TT performance time between accurate and inaccurate feedback conditions, despite significantly lower average [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] scores in the false positive and accurate feedback conditions. Additionally, cycling with a small variation in power output (10 W either side of average power) produced the fastest TT. Further psycho-physiological research should examine the mechanism(s) why lower [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] scores are observed when cycling in a false positive or accurate feedback condition compared to a false negative or blind feedback condition.

Decadal warming causes a consistent and persistent shift from heterotrophic to autotrophic respiration in contrasting permafrost ecosystems.

PubMed

Hicks Pries, Caitlin E; van Logtestijn, Richard S P; Schuur, Edward A G; Natali, Susan M; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Aerts, Rien; Dorrepaal, Ellen

2015-12-01

Soil carbon in permafrost ecosystems has the potential to become a major positive feedback to climate change if permafrost thaw increases heterotrophic decomposition. However, warming can also stimulate autotrophic production leading to increased ecosystem carbon storage-a negative climate change feedback. Few studies partitioning ecosystem respiration examine decadal warming effects or compare responses among ecosystems. Here, we first examined how 11 years of warming during different seasons affected autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration in a bryophyte-dominated peatland in Abisko, Sweden. We used natural abundance radiocarbon to partition ecosystem respiration into autotrophic respiration, associated with production, and heterotrophic decomposition. Summertime warming decreased the age of carbon respired by the ecosystem due to increased proportional contributions from autotrophic and young soil respiration and decreased proportional contributions from old soil. Summertime warming's large effect was due to not only warmer air temperatures during the growing season, but also to warmer deep soils year-round. Second, we compared ecosystem respiration responses between two contrasting ecosystems, the Abisko peatland and a tussock-dominated tundra in Healy, Alaska. Each ecosystem had two different timescales of warming (<5 years and over a decade). Despite the Abisko peatland having greater ecosystem respiration and larger contributions from heterotrophic respiration than the Healy tundra, both systems responded consistently to short- and long-term warming with increased respiration, increased autotrophic contributions to ecosystem respiration, and increased ratios of autotrophic to heterotrophic respiration. We did not detect an increase in old soil carbon losses with warming at either site. If increased autotrophic respiration is balanced by increased primary production, as is the case in the Healy tundra, warming will not cause these ecosystems to become growing season carbon sources. Warming instead causes a persistent shift from heterotrophic to more autotrophic control of the growing season carbon cycle in these carbon-rich permafrost ecosystems. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Finite Feedback Cycling in Structural Equation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayduk, Leslie A.

2009-01-01

In models containing reciprocal effects, or longer causal loops, the usual effect estimates assume that any effect touching a loop initiates an infinite cycling of effects around that loop. The real world, in contrast, might permit only finite feedback cycles. I use a simple hypothetical model to demonstrate that if the world permits only a few…

Positive Feedback Keeps Duration of Mitosis Temporally Insulated from Upstream Cell-Cycle Events.

PubMed

Araujo, Ana Rita; Gelens, Lendert; Sheriff, Rahuman S M; Santos, Silvia D M

2016-10-20

Cell division is characterized by a sequence of events by which a cell gives rise to two daughter cells. Quantitative measurements of cell-cycle dynamics in single cells showed that despite variability in G1-, S-, and G2 phases, duration of mitosis is short and remarkably constant. Surprisingly, there is no correlation between cell-cycle length and mitotic duration, suggesting that mitosis is temporally insulated from variability in earlier cell-cycle phases. By combining live cell imaging and computational modeling, we showed that positive feedback is the molecular mechanism underlying the temporal insulation of mitosis. Perturbing positive feedback gave rise to a sluggish, variable entry and progression through mitosis and uncoupled duration of mitosis from variability in cell cycle length. We show that positive feedback is important to keep mitosis short, constant, and temporally insulated and anticipate it might be a commonly used regulatory strategy to create modularity in other biological systems. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A mechanistic soil biogeochemistry model with explicit representation of microbial and macrofaunal activities and nutrient cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatichi, Simone; Manzoni, Stefano; Or, Dani; Paschalis, Athanasios

2016-04-01

The potential of a given ecosystem to store and release carbon is inherently linked to soil biogeochemical processes. These processes are deeply connected to the water, energy, and vegetation dynamics above and belowground. Recently, it has been advocated that a mechanistic representation of soil biogeochemistry require: (i) partitioning of soil organic carbon (SOC) pools according to their functional role; (ii) an explicit representation of microbial dynamics; (iii) coupling of carbon and nutrient cycles. While some of these components have been introduced in specialized models, they have been rarely implemented in terrestrial biosphere models and tested in real cases. In this study, we combine a new soil biogeochemistry model with an existing model of land-surface hydrology and vegetation dynamics (T&C). Specifically the soil biogeochemistry component explicitly separates different litter pools and distinguishes SOC in particulate, dissolved and mineral associated fractions. Extracellular enzymes and microbial pools are explicitly represented differentiating the functional roles of bacteria, saprotrophic and mycorrhizal fungi. Microbial activity depends on temperature, soil moisture and litter or SOC stoichiometry. The activity of macrofauna is also modeled. Nutrient dynamics include the cycles of nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium. The model accounts for feedbacks between nutrient limitations and plant growth as well as for plant stoichiometric flexibility. In turn, litter input is a function of the simulated vegetation dynamics. Root exudation and export to mycorrhiza are computed based on a nutrient uptake cost function. The combined model is tested to reproduce respiration dynamics and nitrogen cycle in few sites where data were available to test plausibility of results across a range of different metrics. For instance in a Swiss grassland ecosystem, fine root, bacteria, fungal and macrofaunal respiration account for 40%, 23%, 33% and 4% of total belowground respiration, respectively. Root exudation and carbon export to mycorrhizal represent about 7% of plant Net Primary Production. The model allows exploring the temporal dynamics of respiration fluxes from the different ecosystem components and designing virtual experiments on the controls exerted by environmental variables and/or soil microbes and mycorrhizal associations on soil carbon storage, plant growth, and nutrient leaching.

Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon Research Coordination Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuur, E. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Canadell, J.; Harden, J. W.; Kuhry, P.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Turetsky, M. R.; Schädel, C.

2011-12-01

Approximately 1700 Pg (billion tons) of soil carbon are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much carbon than currently contained in the atmosphere. Permafrost thaw, and the microbial decomposition of previously frozen organic carbon, is considered one of the most likely positive feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a warmer world. Yet, the rate and form of release is highly uncertain but crucial for predicting the strength and timing of this carbon cycle feedback this century and beyond. Here we report on the formation of a new research coordination network (RCN) whose objective is to link biological C cycle research with well-developed networks in the physical sciences focused on the thermal state of permafrost. We found that published literature in the Science Citation Index identified with the search terms 'permafrost' and 'carbon' have increased dramatically in the last decade. Of total publications including those keywords, 86% were published since 2000, 65% since 2005, and 36% since 2008. Interconnection through this RCN is designed to produce new knowledge through research synthesis that can be used to quantify the role of permafrost carbon in driving climate change in the 21st century and beyond. An expert elicitation conducted as part of the RCN activities revealed that the total effect of carbon release from permafrost zone soils on climate is expected to be up to 30-46 Pg C over the next three decades, reaching 242-324 Pg C by 2100 and potentially up to 551-710 Pg C over the next several centuries under the strongest warming scenario presented to the group. These values, expressed in billions of tons of C in CO2 equivalents, combine the effect of C released both as CO2 and as CH4 by accounting for the greater heat-trapping capacity of CH4. Much of the actual C release by weight is expected to be in the form of CO2, with only about 3.5% of that in the form of CH4. However, the higher global warming potential of CH4 means that almost half of the effect of future permafrost zone carbon emissions on climate forcing was expected by this group to be a result of CH4 emissions from wetlands, lakes, and other oxygen-limited environments where organic matter will be decomposing. These results demonstrate the vulnerability of organic C stored in near surface permafrost to increasing temperatures. Future activities of this network include synthesizing information in formats that can be assimilated by biospheric and climate models, and that will contribute to future assessments of the IPCC.

Teacher Responses to Learning Cycle Science Lessons for Early Childhood Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraemer, Emily N.

Three learning cycle science lessons were developed for preschoolers in an early childhood children's center in Costa Mesa, California. The lessons were field tested by both novice and experienced teachers with children ranging from three to five years old. Teachers were then interviewed informally to collect feedback on the structure and flow the lessons. The feedback was encouraging remarks towards the use of learning cycle science lessons for early childhood educators. Adjustments were made to the lessons based on teacher feedback. The lessons and their implications for preschool education are discussed.

Simulation of climate, ice sheets and CO2 evolution during the last four glacial cycles with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganopolski, Andrey; Brovkin, Victor

2017-11-01

In spite of significant progress in paleoclimate reconstructions and modelling of different aspects of the past glacial cycles, the mechanisms which transform regional and seasonal variations in solar insolation into long-term and global-scale glacial-interglacial cycles are still not fully understood - in particular, in relation to CO2 variability. Here using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 we performed simulations of the co-evolution of climate, ice sheets, and carbon cycle over the last 400 000 years using the orbital forcing as the only external forcing. The model simulates temporal dynamics of CO2, global ice volume, and other climate system characteristics in good agreement with paleoclimate reconstructions. These results provide strong support for the idea that long and strongly asymmetric glacial cycles of the late Quaternary represent a direct but strongly nonlinear response of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to orbital forcing. This response is strongly amplified and globalised by the carbon cycle feedbacks. Using simulations performed with the model in different configurations, we also analyse the role of individual processes and sensitivity to the choice of model parameters. While many features of simulated glacial cycles are rather robust, some details of CO2 evolution, especially during glacial terminations, are sensitive to the choice of model parameters. Specifically, we found two major regimes of CO2 changes during terminations: in the first one, when the recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) occurs only at the end of the termination, a pronounced overshoot in CO2 concentration occurs at the beginning of the interglacial and CO2 remains almost constant during the interglacial or even declines towards the end, resembling Eemian CO2 dynamics. However, if the recovery of the AMOC occurs in the middle of the glacial termination, CO2 concentration continues to rise during the interglacial, similar to the Holocene. We also discuss the potential contribution of the brine rejection mechanism for the CO2 and carbon isotopes in the atmosphere and the ocean during the past glacial termination.

Increased topsoil carbon stock across China's forests.

PubMed

Yang, Yuanhe; Li, Pin; Ding, Jinzhi; Zhao, Xia; Ma, Wenhong; Ji, Chengjun; Fang, Jingyun

2014-08-01

Biomass carbon accumulation in forest ecosystems is a widespread phenomenon at both regional and global scales. However, as coupled carbon-climate models predicted, a positive feedback could be triggered if accelerated soil carbon decomposition offsets enhanced vegetation growth under a warming climate. It is thus crucial to reveal whether and how soil carbon stock in forest ecosystems has changed over recent decades. However, large-scale changes in soil carbon stock across forest ecosystems have not yet been carefully examined at both regional and global scales, which have been widely perceived as a big bottleneck in untangling carbon-climate feedback. Using newly developed database and sophisticated data mining approach, here we evaluated temporal changes in topsoil carbon stock across major forest ecosystem in China and analysed potential drivers in soil carbon dynamics over broad geographical scale. Our results indicated that topsoil carbon stock increased significantly within all of five major forest types during the period of 1980s-2000s, with an overall rate of 20.0 g C m(-2) yr(-1) (95% confidence interval, 14.1-25.5). The magnitude of soil carbon accumulation across coniferous forests and coniferous/broadleaved mixed forests exhibited meaningful increases with both mean annual temperature and precipitation. Moreover, soil carbon dynamics across these forest ecosystems were positively associated with clay content, with a larger amount of SOC accumulation occurring in fine-textured soils. In contrast, changes in soil carbon stock across broadleaved forests were insensitive to either climatic or edaphic variables. Overall, these results suggest that soil carbon accumulation does not counteract vegetation carbon sequestration across China's forest ecosystems. The combination of soil carbon accumulation and vegetation carbon sequestration triggers a negative feedback to climate warming, rather than a positive feedback predicted by coupled carbon-climate models. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Vegetation and land carbon feedbacks in the high-resolution transient Holocene simulations using the MPI Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brovkin, Victor; Lorenz, Stephan; Raddatz, Thomas

2017-04-01

Plants influence climate through changes in the land surface biophysics (albedo, transpiration) and concentrations of the atmospheric greenhouse gases. One of the interesting periods to investigate a climatic role of terrestrial biosphere is the Holocene, when, despite of the relatively steady global climate, the atmospheric CO2 grew by about 20 ppm from 7 kyr BP to pre-industrial. We use a new setup of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model MPI-ESM1 consisting of the latest version of the atmospheric model ECHAM6, including the land surface model JSBACH3 with carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, coupled to the ocean circulation model MPI-OM, which includes the HAMOCC model of ocean biogeochemistry. The model has been run for several simulations over the Holocene period of the last 8000 years under the forcing data sets of orbital insolation, atmospheric greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosols, solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone, as well as land-use changes. In response to this forcing, the land carbon storage increased by about 60 PgC between 8 and 4 kyr BP, stayed relatively constant until 2 kyr BP, and decreased by about 90 PgC by 1850 AD due to land use changes. Vegetation and soil carbon changes significantly affected atmospheric CO2 during the periods of strong volcanic eruptions. In response to the eruption-caused cooling, the land initially stores more carbon as respiration decreases, but then it releases even more carbon due to productivity decrease. This decadal- scale variability helps to quantify the vegetation and land carbon feedbacks during the past periods when the temporal resolution of the ice-core CO2 record is not sufficient to capture fast CO2 variations. From a set of Holocene simulations with prescribed or interactive atmospheric CO2, we get estimates of climate-carbon feedback useful for future climate studies. Members of the Hamburg Holocene Team: Jürgen Bader1, Sebastian Bathiany2, Victor Brovkin1, Martin Claussen1,3, Traute Crüger1, Roberta D'agostino1, Anne Dallmeyer1, Sabine Egerer1, Vivienne Groner1, Matthias Heinze1, Tatiana Ilyina1, Johann Jungclaus1, Thomas Kleinen1, Alexander Lemburg1, Stephan Lorenz1, Thomas Raddatz1, Hauke Schmidt1, Gerhard Schmiedl3, Bjorn Stevens1, Claudia Timmreck1, Matthew Toohey4 1Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, D 2Wageningen University, NL 3CEN, Universität Hamburg, D 4GEOMAR Helmholtz Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel, D

The effect of anthropogenic emissions corrections on the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, B. J.; Hoffman, F. M.; Mills, R. T.; Erickson, D. J.; Blasing, T. J.

2009-12-01

A previous study (Erickson et al. 2008) approximated the monthly global emission estimates of anthropogenic CO2 by applying a 2-harmonic Fourier expansion with coefficients as a function of latitude to annual CO2 flux estimates derived from United States data (Blasing et al. 2005) that were extrapolated globally. These monthly anthropogenic CO2 flux estimates were used to model atmospheric concentrations using the NASA GEOS-4 data assimilation system. Local variability in the amplitude of the simulated CO2 seasonal cycle were found to be on the order of 2-6 ppmv. Here we used the same Fourier expansion to seasonally adjust the global annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions from the SRES A2 scenario. For a total of four simulations, both the annual and seasonalized fluxes were advected in two configurations of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) used in the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP). One configuration used the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM) coupled with the CASA‧ (carbon only) biogeochemistry model and the other used CLM coupled with the CN (coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles) biogeochemistry model. All four simulations were forced with observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations from the Hadley Centre and a prescribed transient atmospheric CO2 concentration for the radiation and land forcing over the 20th century. The model results exhibit differences in the seasonal cycle of CO2 between the seasonally corrected and uncorrected simulations. Moreover, because of differing energy and water feedbacks between the atmosphere model and the two land biogeochemistry models, features of the CO2 seasonal cycle were different between these two model configurations. This study reinforces previous findings that suggest that regional near-surface atmospheric CO2 concentrations depend strongly on the natural sources and sinks of CO2, but also on the strength of local anthropogenic CO2 emissions and geographic position. This work further attests to the need for remotely sensed CO2 observations from space.

Soil Functional Mapping: A Geospatial Framework for Scaling Soil Carbon Cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, C. R.

2017-12-01

Climate change is dramatically altering biogeochemical cycles in most terrestrial ecosystems, particularly the cycles of water and carbon (C). These changes will affect myriad ecosystem processes of importance, including plant productivity, C exports to aquatic systems, and terrestrial C storage. Soil C storage represents a critical feedback to climate change as soils store more C than the atmosphere and aboveground plant biomass combined. While we know plant and soil C cycling are strongly coupled with soil moisture, substantial unknowns remain regarding how these relationships can be scaled up from soil profiles to ecosystems. This greatly limits our ability to build a process-based understanding of the controls on and consequences of climate change at regional scales. In an effort to address this limitation we: (1) describe an approach to classifying soils that is based on underlying differences in soil functional characteristics and (2) examine the utility of this approach as a scaling tool that honors the underlying soil processes. First, geospatial datasets are analyzed in the context of our current understanding of soil C and water cycling in order to predict soil functional units that can be mapped at the scale of ecosystems or watersheds. Next, the integrity of each soil functional unit is evaluated using available soil C data and mapping units are refined as needed. Finally, targeted sampling is conducted to further differentiate functional units or fill in any data gaps that are identified. Completion of this workflow provides new geospatial datasets that are based on specific soil functions, in this case the coupling of soil C and water cycling, and are well suited for integration with regional-scale soil models. Preliminary results from this effort highlight the advantages of a scaling approach that balances theory, measurement, and modeling.

Ocean Ridges and Oxygen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langmuir, C. H.

2014-12-01

The history of oxygen and the fluxes and feedbacks that lead to its evolution through time remain poorly constrained. It is not clear whether oxygen has had discrete steady state levels at different times in Earth's history, or whether oxygen evolution is more progressive, with trigger points that lead to discrete changes in markers such as mass independent sulfur isotopes. Whatever this history may have been, ocean ridges play an important and poorly recognized part in the overall mass balance of oxidants and reductants that contribute to electron mass balance and the oxygen budget. One example is the current steady state O2 in the atmosphere. The carbon isotope data suggest that the fraction of carbon has increased in the Phanerozoic, and CO2 outgassing followed by organic matter burial should continually supply more O2 to the surface reservoirs. Why is O2 not then increasing? A traditional answer to this question would relate to variations in the fraction of burial of organic matter, but this fraction appears to have been relatively high throughout the Phanerozoic. Furthermore, subduction of carbon in the 1/5 organic/carbonate proportions would contribute further to an increasingly oxidized surface. What is needed is a flux of oxidized material out of the system. One solution would be a modern oxidized flux to the mantle. The current outgassing flux of CO2 is ~3.4*1012 moles per year. If 20% of that becomes stored organic carbon, that is a flux of .68*1012 moles per year of reduced carbon. The current flux of oxidized iron in subducting ocean crust is ~2*1012 moles per year of O2 equivalents, based on the Fe3+/Fe2+ ratios in old ocean crust compared to fresh basalts at the ridge axis. This flux more than accounts for the incremental oxidizing power produced by modern life. It also suggests a possible feedback through oxygenation of the ocean. A reduced deep ocean would inhibit oxidation of ocean crust, in which case there would be no subduction flux of oxidized material, and oxygen could rise. Once the ocean becomes fully oxidized, a substantial subduction flux operates as a negative feedback. Plate tectonic geochemical cycles may have played a very significant role in the oxygen balance in both the ancient and modern Earth.

OCO-2 Column Carbon Dioxide and Biometric Data Jointly Constrain Parameterization and Projection of a Global Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Z.; Crowell, S.; Luo, Y.; Rayner, P. J.; Moore, B., III

2015-12-01

Uncertainty in predicted carbon-climate feedback largely stems from poor parameterization of global land models. However, calibration of global land models with observations has been extremely challenging at least for two reasons. First we lack global data products from systematical measurements of land surface processes. Second, computational demand is insurmountable for estimation of model parameter due to complexity of global land models. In this project, we will use OCO-2 retrievals of dry air mole fraction XCO2 and solar induced fluorescence (SIF) to independently constrain estimation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP). The constrained NEE and GPP will be combined with data products of global standing biomass, soil organic carbon and soil respiration to improve the community land model version 4.5 (CLM4.5). Specifically, we will first develop a high fidelity emulator of CLM4.5 according to the matrix representation of the terrestrial carbon cycle. It has been shown that the emulator fully represents the original model and can be effectively used for data assimilation to constrain parameter estimation. We will focus on calibrating those key model parameters (e.g., maximum carboxylation rate, turnover time and transfer coefficients of soil carbon pools, and temperature sensitivity of respiration) for carbon cycle. The Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) will be used to assimilate the global databases into the high fidelity emulator to constrain the model parameters, which will be incorporated back to the original CLM4.5. The calibrated CLM4.5 will be used to make scenario-based projections. In addition, we will conduct observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) to evaluate how the sampling frequency and length could affect the model constraining and prediction.

Impact of Seasonal Variability in Water, Plant and Soil Nutrient Dynamics in Agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelak, N. F., III; Revelli, R.; Porporato, A. M.

2017-12-01

Agroecosystems cover a significant fraction of the Earth's surface, making their water and nutrient cycles a major component of global cycles across spatial and temporal scales. Most agroecosystems experience seasonality via variations in precipitation, temperature, and radiation, in addition to human activities which also occur seasonally, such as fertilization, irrigation, and harvesting. These seasonal drivers interact with the system in complex ways which are often poorly characterized. Crop models, which are widely used for research, decision support, and prediction of crop yields, are among the best tools available to analyze these systems. Though normally constructed as a set of dynamical equations forced by hydroclimatic variability, they are not often analyzed using dynamical systems theory and methods from stochastic ecohydrology. With the goal of developing this viewpoint and thus elucidating the roles of key feedbacks and forcings on system stability and on optimal fertilization and irrigation strategies, we develop a minimal dynamical system which contains the key components of a crop model, coupled to a carbon and nitrogen cycling model, driven by seasonal fluctuations in water and nutrient availability, temperature, and radiation. External drivers include seasonally varying climatic conditions and random rainfall forcing, irrigation and fertilization as well as harvesting. The model is used to analyze the magnitudes and interactions of the effects of seasonality on carbon and nutrient cycles, crop productivity, nutrient export of agroecosystems, and optimal management strategies with reference to productivity, sustainability and profitability. The impact of likely future climate scenarios on these systems is also discussed.

Soil nitrogen cycling and availability are linked to ammonia oxidizer abundance across a tropical mean annual temperature gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierre, S.; Litton, C. M.; Giardina, C. P.; Sparks, J. P.; Groffman, P.; Hewson, I.; Fahey, T.

2016-12-01

Interactions among environmental variables can obfuscate the primary drivers linking soil microbial community function to ecosystem biogeochemistry. These connections are important to understand in order to predict ecosystem responses to global climate change. In particular, the role of mean annual temperature (MAT) in regulating carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling via microbial communities remains unclear. To study these dynamics in situ, we used a a natural elevation gradient of tropical wet montane forest on Mauna Kea, Hawai'i with established permanent plots. Across the gradient, environmental variables besides MAT remain constant. We studied the abundance and activity of the amoA gene, which regulates the rate-limiting step of nitrification, in ammonia oxidizing archaea (AOA) and bacteria (AOB) with relation to N availability and cycling across increasing MAT. Our results show that the abundance of amoA is positively correlated with MAT (p<0.05; r2=0.34) and that MAT and amoA abundance are the primary predictors of nitrate (NO3-) bioavailability (p<0.05). We also found that the relative expression of amoA (cDNA/DNA) is not correlated with MAT or potential net nitrification rate. Our results indicate the direct role of MAT in ammonia oxidizer community structure and demonstrate feedbacks to nutrient availability in forest systems. These findings suggest that forest primary production and carbon cycling may be affected by AOA and AOB responses to rising MAT.

Soil moisture influence on the interannual variation in temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon mineralization in the Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y. J.; Guo, S. L.; Zhao, M.; Du, L. L.; Li, R. J.; Jiang, J. S.; Wang, R.; Li, N. N.

2015-06-01

Temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon (SOC) mineralization (i.e., Q10) determines how strong the feedback from global warming may be on the atmospheric CO2 concentration; thus, understanding the factors influencing the interannual variation in Q10 is important for accurately estimating local soil carbon cycle. In situ SOC mineralization rate was measured using an automated CO2 flux system (Li-8100) in long-term bare fallow soil in the Loess Plateau (35°12' N, 107°40' E) in Changwu, Shaanxi, China from 2008 to 2013. The results showed that the annual cumulative SOC mineralization ranged from 226 to 298 g C m-2 yr-1, with a mean of 253 g C m-2 yr-1 and a coefficient of variation (CV) of 13%, annual Q10 ranged from 1.48 to 1.94, with a mean of 1.70 and a CV of 10%, and annual soil moisture content ranged from 38.6 to 50.7% soil water-filled pore space (WFPS), with a mean of 43.8% WFPS and a CV of 11%, which were mainly affected by the frequency and distribution of precipitation. Annual Q10 showed a quadratic correlation with annual mean soil moisture content. In conclusion, understanding of the relationships between interannual variation in Q10, soil moisture, and precipitation are important to accurately estimate the local carbon cycle, especially under the changing climate.

The Response of Soil Carbon Stocks to Changing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations are Soil-Type-Dependent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hockaday, W. C.; Gallagher, M. E.; Masiello, C. A.; Pyle, L. A.; Polley, W. H.; Baldock, J.

2010-12-01

Global soil C stocks (2 × 1018 gC) are large enough that a minor climate-induced change in the cycling of the soil C pool would constitute a major climate feedback. The responses of soil carbon stocks to experimental manipulations of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) and temperature vary widely in direction and magnitude across different ecosystems. The mechanisms for differences soil C cycle response to climate change are not well understood. In particular, little is known about the potential role of soil genetic factors such as mineralogy and structure in the climate response. To address this, we examined [CO2]-induced changes in soil organic matter (SOM) quantity and quality at the USDA lysimeter CO2 gradient facility (in Temple, TX), which comprises 3 major soil orders (Mollisol, Alfisol, and Vertisol). Temperature, precipitation, and vegetation type are controlled variables across the soil orders. We used 13C nuclear magnetic resonance to study the chemical structure and composition of SOM under a native tallgrass prairie community exposed to CO2 concentrations ranging from 250 to 500 ppm. A mixing model (Baldock et al., 2004) was used to estimate soil biochemical stocks. The relative magnitude of biochemical inputs (from grassland roots and shoots) follows the order: carbohydrates >> lignins > proteins = lipids. However, the relative chemical abundances in the soil C pool are: carbohydrates = protein > lipid > lignin > charcoal. These discrepancies in the relative magnitude of the biochemical fluxes and stocks highlight the selectivity of SOM preservation and show that increased primary production (mainly carbohydrate synthesis) in response to elevated [CO2] may not lead to long-term soil C storage unless a carbohydrate preservation mechanism exists in the soil. Indeed, carbohydrate stocks in the Alfisol and Vertisol decreased despite greater inputs at high [CO2]. Only the Mollisol exhibited a capacity to store additional carbohydrate C at high atmospheric CO2 levels. Soil protein stocks in the Mollisol, and lignin stocks in the Alfisol, doubled in response to the doubling of atmospheric [CO2]. Soil lipids decreased with increasing [CO2] in all 3 soil orders. These [CO2]-induced changes in the soil biochemical stocks suggest that soil genetic factors could play an important role in the soil C storage potential under different climate regimes. The molecular basis for C preservation in soils of distinct genetic origin should inform efforts to model C cycle-climate feedbacks.

The roles of hydraulic and carbon stress in a widespread climate-induced forest die-off

PubMed Central

Anderegg, William R. L.; Berry, Joseph A.; Smith, Duncan D.; Sperry, John S.; Anderegg, Leander D. L.; Field, Christopher B.

2012-01-01

Forest ecosystems store approximately 45% of the carbon found in terrestrial ecosystems, but they are sensitive to climate-induced dieback. Forest die-off constitutes a large uncertainty in projections of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, climate–ecosystem interactions, and carbon-cycle feedbacks. Current understanding of the physiological mechanisms mediating climate-induced forest mortality limits the ability to model or project these threshold events. We report here a direct and in situ study of the mechanisms underlying recent widespread and climate-induced trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) forest mortality in western North America. We find substantial evidence of hydraulic failure of roots and branches linked to landscape patterns of canopy and root mortality in this species. On the contrary, we find no evidence that drought stress led to depletion of carbohydrate reserves. Our results illuminate proximate mechanisms underpinning recent aspen forest mortality and provide guidance for understanding and projecting forest die-offs under climate change. PMID:22167807

The SMAP Level-4 ECO Project: Linking the Terrestrial Water and Carbon Cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kolassa, J.; Reichle, R. H.; Liu, Qing; Koster, Randal D.

2017-01-01

The SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) Level-4 projects aims to develop a fully coupled hydrology-vegetation data assimilation algorithm to generate improved estimates of modeled hydrological fields and carbon fluxes. This includes using the new NASA Catchment-CN (Catchment-Carbon-Nitrogen) model, which combines the Catchment land surface hydrology model with dynamic vegetation components from the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4). As such, Catchment-CN allows a more realistic, fully coupled feedback between the land hydrology and the biosphere. The L4 ECO project further aims to inform the model through the assimilation of Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) brightness temperature observations as well as observations of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR). Preliminary results show that the assimilation of SMAP observations leads to consistent improvements in the model soil moisture skill. An evaluation of the Catchment-CN modeled vegetation characteristics showed that a calibration of the model's vegetation parameters is required before an assimilation of MODIS FPAR observations is feasible.

Exploring the implication of climate process uncertainties within the Earth System Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B.; Lambert, F. H.; McNeal, D.; Harris, G.; Sexton, D.; Boulton, C.; Murphy, J.

2011-12-01

Uncertainties in the magnitude of future climate change have been a focus of a great deal of research. Much of the work with General Circulation Models has focused on the atmospheric response to changes in atmospheric composition, while other processes remain outside these frameworks. Here we introduce an ensemble of new simulations, based on an Earth System configuration of HadCM3C, designed to explored uncertainties in both physical (atmospheric, oceanic and aerosol physics) and carbon cycle processes, using perturbed parameter approaches previously used to explore atmospheric uncertainty. Framed in the context of the climate response to future changes in emissions, the resultant future projections represent significantly broader uncertainty than existing concentration driven GCM assessments. The systematic nature of the ensemble design enables interactions between components to be explored. For example, we show how metrics of physical processes (such as climate sensitivity) are also influenced carbon cycle parameters. The suggestion from this work is that carbon cycle processes represent a comparable contribution to uncertainty in future climate projections as contributions from atmospheric feedbacks more conventionally explored. The broad range of climate responses explored within these ensembles, rather than representing a reason for inaction, provide information on lower likelihood but high impact changes. For example while the majority of these simulations suggest that future Amazon forest extent is resilient to the projected climate changes, a small number simulate dramatic forest dieback. This ensemble represents a framework to examine these risks, breaking them down into physical processes (such as ocean temperature drivers of rainfall change) and vegetation processes (where uncertainties point towards requirements for new observational constraints).

Carbon Cycle Model Linkage Project (CCMLP): Evaluating Biogeochemical Process Models with Atmospheric Measurements and Field Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heimann, M.; Prentice, I. C.; Foley, J.; Hickler, T.; Kicklighter, D. W.; McGuire, A. D.; Melillo, J. M.; Ramankutty, N.; Sitch, S.

2001-12-01

Models of biophysical and biogeochemical proceses are being used -either offline or in coupled climate-carbon cycle (C4) models-to assess climate- and CO2-induced feedbacks on atmospheric CO2. Observations of atmospheric CO2 concentration, and supplementary tracers including O2 concentrations and isotopes, offer unique opportunities to evaluate the large-scale behaviour of models. Global patterns, temporal trends, and interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 concentration and its seasonal cycle provide crucial benchmarks for simulations of regionally-integrated net ecosystem exchange; flux measurements by eddy correlation allow a far more demanding model test at the ecosystem scale than conventional indicators, such as measurements of annual net primary production; and large-scale manipulations, such as the Duke Forest Free Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE) experiment, give a standard to evaluate modelled phenomena such as ecosystem-level CO2 fertilization. Model runs including historical changes of CO2, climate and land use allow comparison with regional-scale monthly CO2 balances as inferred from atmospheric measurements. Such comparisons are providing grounds for some confidence in current models, while pointing to processes that may still be inadequately treated. Current plans focus on (1) continued benchmarking of land process models against flux measurements across ecosystems and experimental findings on the ecosystem-level effects of enhanced CO2, reactive N inputs and temperature; (2) improved representation of land use, forest management and crop metabolism in models; and (3) a strategy for the evaluation of C4 models in a historical observational context.

Consequences of simulating terrestrial N dynamics for projecting future terrestrial C storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaehle, S.; Friend, A. D.; Friedlingstein, P.

2009-04-01

We present results of a new land surface model, O-CN, which includes a process-based coupling between the terrestrial cycling of energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen. The model represents the controls of the terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling on carbon (C) pools and fluxes through photosynthesis, respiration, changes in allocation patterns, as well as soil organic matter decomposition, and explicitly accounts for N leaching and gaseous losses. O-CN has been shown to give realistic results in comparison to observations at a wide range of scales, including in situ flux measurements, productivity databases, and atmospheric CO2 concentration data. Notably, O-CN simulates realistic responses of net primary productivity, foliage area, and foliage N content to elevated atmospheric [CO2] as evidenced at free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) sites (Duke, Oak Ridge). We re-examine earlier model-based assessments of the terrestrial C sequestration potential using a global transient O-CN simulation driven by increases in atmospheric [CO2], N deposition and climatic changes over the 21st century. We find that accounting for terrestrial N cycling about halves the potential to store C in response to increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations; mainly due to a reduction of the net C uptake in temperate and boreal forests. Nitrogen deposition partially alleviates the effect of N limitation, but is by far not sufficient to compensate for the effect completely. These findings underline the importance of an accurate representation of nutrient limitations in future projections of the terrestrial net CO2 exchanges and therefore land-climate feedback studies.

Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Studies: SOLAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanninkhof, R.; Dickerson, R.; Barber, R.; Capone, D. G.; Duce, R.; Erickson, D.; Keene, W. C.; Lenschow, D.; Matrai, P. A.; McGillis, W.; McGillicuddy, D.; Penner, J.; Pszenny, A.

2002-05-01

The US Surface Ocean - Lower Atmosphere Study (US SOLAS) is a component of an international program (SOLAS) with an overall goal: to achieve a quantitative understanding of the key biogeochemical-physical interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, and of how this coupled system affects and is affected by climateand environmental change. There is increasing evidence that the biogeochemical cycles containing the building blocks of life such as carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur have been perturbed. These changes result in appreciable impacts and feedbacks in the SOLA region. The exact nature of the impacts and feedbacks are poorly constrained because of sparse observations, in particular relating to the connectivity and interrelationships between the major biogeochemical cycles and their interaction with physical forcing. It is in these areas that the research and the interdisciplinary research approaches advocated in US SOLAS will provide high returns. The research in US SOLAS will be heavily focused on process studies of the natural variability of key processes, anthropogenic perturbation of the processes, and the positive and negative feedbacks the processes will have on the biogeochemical cycles in the SOLA region. A major objective is to integrate the process study findings with the results from large-scale observations and with small and large- scale modeling and remote sensing efforts to improve our mechanistic understanding of large scale biogeochemical and physical phenomena and feedbacks. US SOLAS held an open workshop in May 2001 to lay the groundwork for the SOLAS program in the United States. Resulting highlights and issues will be summarized around 4 major themes: (1) Boundary-layer Physics, (2) Dynamics of long-lived climate relevant compounds, (3) Dynamics of short-lived climate relevant compounds, and (4) Atmospheric effects on marine biogeochemical processes. Comprehensive reports from the working groups of U.S. SOLAS, and the international science plan which served as overall guidance, can be found at We will explore possible dedicated, interdisciplinary ocean-atmosphere projects as examples of the critical interconnectivity of atmospheric, interfacial, and upper ocean processes to study phenomena of critical importance in understanding the earth's system.

Incorporating grazing into an eco-hydrologic model: Simulating coupled human and natural systems in rangelands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes, J. J.; Liu, M.; Tague, C.; Choate, J. S.; Evans, R. D.; Johnson, K. A.; Adam, J. C.

2013-12-01

Rangelands provide an opportunity to investigate the coupled feedbacks between human activities and natural ecosystems. These areas comprise at least one-third of the Earth's surface and provide ecological support for birds, insects, wildlife and agricultural animals including grazing lands for livestock. Capturing the interactions among water, carbon, and nitrogen cycles within the context of regional scale patterns of climate and management is important to understand interactions, responses, and feedbacks between rangeland systems and humans, as well as provide relevant information to stakeholders and policymakers. The overarching objective of this research is to understand the full consequences, intended and unintended, of human activities and climate over time in rangelands by incorporating dynamics related to rangeland management into an eco-hydrologic model that also incorporates biogeochemical and soil processes. Here we evaluate our model over ungrazed and grazed sites for different rangeland ecosystems. The Regional Hydro-ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys) is a process-based, watershed-scale model that couples water with carbon and nitrogen cycles. Climate, soil, vegetation, and management effects within the watershed are represented in a nested landscape hierarchy to account for heterogeneity and the lateral movement of water and nutrients. We incorporated a daily time-series of plant biomass loss from rangeland to represent grazing. The TRY Plant Trait Database was used to parameterize genera of shrubs and grasses in different rangeland types, such as tallgrass prairie, Intermountain West cold desert, and shortgrass steppe. In addition, other model parameters captured the reallocation of carbon and nutrients after grass defoliation. Initial simulations were conducted at the Curlew Valley site in northern Utah, a former International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Desert Biome site. We found that grasses were most sensitive to model parameters affecting the daily-to-yearly ratio of net primary productivity allocation of carbon, non-structural carbohydrate pool, rate of root turnover, and leaf on/off days. We also ran RHESSys over AmeriFlux sites representing a spectrum of rangeland ecosystems, such as at Konza Prairie (Kansas), Fort Peck (Montana), and Corral Pocket (Utah), as well as grazed versus ungrazed sites. We evaluated RHESSys using net ecosystem exchange . Competition between rangeland vegetation types with different physiological parameters, such as carbon:nitrogen ratio and specific leaf area within a single site were also tested. Preliminary results indicated both species-specific parameters and allocation controls were important to capturing the ecosystem response to environmental conditions. Furthermore, the addition of a grazing component allowed us to better capture impacts of management at grazed sites. Future research will involve incorporation of other grazing processes, such as impacts of excreta and increased nutrient availability and cycling.

Sensitivity of system stability to model structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hosack, G.R.; Li, H.W.; Rossignol, P.A.

2009-01-01

A community is stable, and resilient, if the levels of all community variables can return to the original steady state following a perturbation. The stability properties of a community depend on its structure, which is the network of direct effects (interactions) among the variables within the community. These direct effects form feedback cycles (loops) that determine community stability. Although feedback cycles have an intuitive interpretation, identifying how they form the feedback properties of a particular community can be intractable. Furthermore, determining the role that any specific direct effect plays in the stability of a system is even more daunting. Such information, however, would identify important direct effects for targeted experimental and management manipulation even in complex communities for which quantitative information is lacking. We therefore provide a method that determines the sensitivity of community stability to model structure, and identifies the relative role of particular direct effects, indirect effects, and feedback cycles in determining stability. Structural sensitivities summarize the degree to which each direct effect contributes to stabilizing feedback or destabilizing feedback or both. Structural sensitivities prove useful in identifying ecologically important feedback cycles within the community structure and for detecting direct effects that have strong, or weak, influences on community stability. The approach may guide the development of management intervention and research design. We demonstrate its value with two theoretical models and two empirical examples of different levels of complexity. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A simple, mass balance model of carbon flow in a controlled ecological life support system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garland, Jay L.

1989-01-01

Internal cycling of chemical elements is a fundamental aspect of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). Mathematical models are useful tools for evaluating fluxes and reservoirs of elements associated with potential CELSS configurations. A simple mass balance model of carbon flow in CELSS was developed based on data from the CELSS Breadboard project at Kennedy Space Center. All carbon reservoirs and fluxes were calculated based on steady state conditions and modelled using linear, donor-controlled transfer coefficients. The linear expression of photosynthetic flux was replaced with Michaelis-Menten kinetics based on dynamical analysis of the model which found that the latter produced more adequate model output. Sensitivity analysis of the model indicated that accurate determination of the maximum rate of gross primary production is critical to the development of an accurate model of carbon flow. Atmospheric carbon dioxide was particularly sensitive to changes in photosynthetic rate. The small reservoir of CO2 relative to large CO2 fluxes increases the potential for volatility in CO2 concentration. Feedback control mechanisms regulating CO2 concentration will probably be necessary in a CELSS to reduce this system instability.

Comparisons with observational and experimental manipulation data imply needed conceptual changes to ESM land models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, W. J.; Zhu, Q.; Tang, J.

2016-12-01

The land models integrated in Earth System Models (ESMs) are critical components necessary to predict soil carbon dynamics and carbon-climate interactions under a changing climate. Yet, these models have been shown to have poor predictive power when compared with observations and ignore many processes known to the observational communities to influence above and belowground carbon dynamics. Here I will report work to tightly couple observations and perturbation experiment results with development of an ESM land model (ALM), focusing on nutrient constraints of the terrestrial C cycle. Using high-frequency flux tower observations and short-term nitrogen and phosphorus perturbation experiments, we show that conceptualizing plant and soil microbe interactions as a multi-substrate, multi-competitor kinetic network allows for accurate prediction of nutrient acquisition. Next, using multiple-year FACE and fertilization response observations at many forest sites, we show that capturing the observed responses requires representation of dynamic allocation to respond to the resulting stresses. Integrating the mechanisms implied by these observations into ALM leads to much lower observational bias and to very different predictions of long-term soil and aboveground C stocks and dynamics, and therefore C-climate feedbacks. I describe how these types of observational constraints are being integrated into the open-source International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package, and end with the argument that consolidating as many observations of all sorts for easy use by modelers is an important goal to improve C-climate feedback predictions.

Developing a Carbon Observing System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, B., III

2015-12-01

There is a clear need to better understand and predict future climate change, so that science can more confidently inform climate policy, including adaptation planning and future mitigation strategies. Understanding carbon cycle feedbacks, and the relationship between emissions (fossil and land use) and the resulting atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) concentrations in a changing climate has been recognized as an important goal by the IPCC. The existing surface greenhouse gas observing networks provide accurate and precise measurements of background values, but they are not configured to target the extended, complex and dynamic regions of the carbon budget. Space Agencies around the globe are committed to CO2 and CH4 observations: GOSAT-1/2, OCO-2/3, MERLin, TanSat, and CarbonSat. In addition to these Low Earth Orbit (LEO) missions, a new mission in Geostationary Orbit (GEO), geoCARB, which would provide mapping-like measurements of carbon dioxide, methane, and carbon monoxide concentrations over major land areas, has been recently proposed to the NASA Venture Program. These pioneering missions do not provide the spatial/temporal coverage to answer the key carbon-climate questions at process relevant scales nor do they address the distribution and quantification of anthropogenic sources at urban scales. They do demonstrate, however, that a well-planned future system of system integrating space-based LEO and GEO missions with extensive in situ observations could provide the accuracy, spatial resolution, and coverage needed to address critical open issues in the carbon-climate system. Dr. Diana Wickland devoted enormous energy in developing a comprehensive apprioach to understand the global carbon cycle; she understood well that an integrated, coordinated, international approach is needed. This shines through in her recent contribution in co-chairing the team that produced the "CEOS Strategy for Carbon Observations from Space." A NASA-funded community workshop in March 2015 addressed issues and prioritzed a set of research and observational needs in the study of the Carbon-Climate System. This paper will refect upon the past 30 plus years of carbon research supported by NASA and Dr. Wickland's role, and it will conclude with the findings of the March 2015 Workshop.

Representing Microbial Dormancy in Soil Decomposition Models Improves Model Performance and Reveals Key Ecosystem Controls on Microbial Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Y.; Yang, J.; Zhuang, Q.; Wang, G.; Liu, Y.

2014-12-01

Climate feedbacks from soils can result from environmental change and subsequent responses of plant and microbial communities and nutrient cycling. Explicit consideration of microbial life history traits and strategy may be necessary to predict climate feedbacks due to microbial physiology and community changes and their associated effect on carbon cycling. In this study, we developed an explicit microbial-enzyme decomposition model and examined model performance with and without representation of dormancy at six temperate forest sites with observed soil efflux ranged from 4 to 10 years across different forest types. We then extrapolated the model to all temperate forests in the Northern Hemisphere (25-50°N) to investigate spatial controls on microbial and soil C dynamics. Both models captured the observed soil heterotrophic respiration (RH), yet no-dormancy model consistently exhibited large seasonal amplitude and overestimation in microbial biomass. Spatially, the total RH from temperate forests based on dormancy model amounts to 6.88PgC/yr, and 7.99PgC/yr based on no-dormancy model. However, no-dormancy model notably overestimated the ratio of microbial biomass to SOC. Spatial correlation analysis revealed key controls of soil C:N ratio on the active proportion of microbial biomass, whereas local dormancy is primarily controlled by soil moisture and temperature, indicating scale-dependent environmental and biotic controls on microbial and SOC dynamics. These developments should provide essential support to modeling future soil carbon dynamics and enhance the avenue for collaboration between empirical soil experiment and modeling in the sense that more microbial physiological measurements are needed to better constrain and evaluate the models.

Recent slowdown of atmospheric CO2 amplification due to vegetation-climate feedback over northern lands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Z.; Xia, J.; Ahlström, A.; Rinke, A.; Koven, C.; Hayes, D. J.; Ji, D.; Zhang, G.; Krinner, G.; Chen, G.; Dong, J.; Liang, J.; Moore, J.; Jiang, L.; Yan, L.; Ciais, P.; Peng, S.; Wang, Y.; Xiao, X.; Shi, Z.; McGuire, A. D.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

The enhanced vegetation growth by climate warming plays a pivotal role in amplifying the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 at northern high latitudes since 1960s1-3. It remains unclear that whether this mechanism is still robust since 1990s, because a paused vegetation growth increase4,5 and weakened temperature control on CO2 uptake6,7 have been detected during this period. Here, based on in-situ atmospheric CO2 concentration records above northern 50o N, we found a slowdown of the atmospheric CO2 amplification from the mid-1990s to mid-2000s. This phenomenon is associated with the pause of vegetation greening trend and slowdown of spring warming. We further showed that both the vegetation greenness and its growing season length are positively correlated to spring but not autumn temperature from 1982 to 2010 over the northern lands. However, the state-of-art terrestrial biosphere models produce positive responses of gross primary productivity to both spring and autumn warming. These findings emphasize the importance of vegetation-climate feedback in shaping the atmospheric CO2 seasonality, and call for an improved carbon-cycle response to non-uniform seasonal warming at high latitudes in current models.

Inverse modeling of the terrestrial carbon flux in China with flux covariance among inverted regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, H.; Jiang, F.; Chen, J. M.; Ju, W.; Wang, H.

2011-12-01

Quantitative understanding of the role of ocean and terrestrial biosphere in the global carbon cycle, their response and feedback to climate change is required for the future projection of the global climate. China has the largest amount of anthropogenic CO2 emission, diverse terrestrial ecosystems and an unprecedented rate of urbanization. Thus information on spatial and temporal distributions of the terrestrial carbon flux in China is of great importance in understanding the global carbon cycle. We developed a nested inversion with focus in China. Based on Transcom 22 regions for the globe, we divide China and its neighboring countries into 17 regions, making 39 regions in total for the globe. A Bayesian synthesis inversion is made to estimate the terrestrial carbon flux based on GlobalView CO2 data. In the inversion, GEOS-Chem is used as the transport model to develop the transport matrix. A terrestrial ecosystem model named BEPS is used to produce the prior surface flux to constrain the inversion. However, the sparseness of available observation stations in Asia poses a challenge to the inversion for the 17 small regions. To obtain additional constraint on the inversion, a prior flux covariance matrix is constructed using the BEPS model through analyzing the correlation in the net carbon flux among regions under variable climate conditions. The use of the covariance among different regions in the inversion effectively extends the information content of CO2 observations to more regions. The carbon flux over the 39 land and ocean regions are inverted for the period from 2004 to 2009. In order to investigate the impact of introducing the covariance matrix with non-zero off-diagonal values to the inversion, the inverted terrestrial carbon flux over China is evaluated against ChinaFlux eddy-covariance observations after applying an upscaling methodology.

Earth System Models Underestimate Soil Carbon Diagnostic Times in Dry and Cold Regions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, W.; Xia, J.; Zhou, X.; Huang, K.; Huang, Y.; Jian, Z.; Jiang, L.; Xu, X.; Liang, J.; Wang, Y. P.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Soils contain the largest organic carbon (C) reservoir in the Earth's surface and strongly modulate the terrestrial feedback to climate change. Large uncertainty exists in current Earth system models (ESMs) in simulating soil organic C (SOC) dynamics, calling for a systematic diagnosis on their performance based on observations. Here, we built a global database of SOC diagnostic time (i.e.,turnover times; τsoil) measured at 320 sites with four different approaches. We found that the estimated τsoil was comparable among approaches of 14C dating () (median with 25 and 75 percentiles), 13C shifts due to vegetation change () and the ratio of stock over flux (), but was shortest from laboratory incubation studies (). The state-of-the-art ESMs underestimated the τsoil in most biomes, even by >10 and >5 folds in cold and dry regions, respectively. Moreover,we identified clear negative dependences of τsoil on temperature and precipitation in both of the observational and modeling results. Compared with Community Land Model (version 4), the incorporation of soil vertical profile (CLM4.5) could substantially extend the τsoil of SOC. Our findings suggest the accuracy of climate-C cycle feedback in current ESMs could be enhanced by an improved understanding of SOC dynamics under the limited hydrothermal conditions.

Short-term precipitation exclusion alters microbial responses to soil moisture in a wet tropical forest.

PubMed

Waring, Bonnie G; Hawkes, Christine V

2015-05-01

Many wet tropical forests, which contain a quarter of global terrestrial biomass carbon stocks, will experience changes in precipitation regime over the next century. Soil microbial responses to altered rainfall are likely to be an important feedback on ecosystem carbon cycling, but the ecological mechanisms underpinning these responses are poorly understood. We examined how reduced rainfall affected soil microbial abundance, activity, and community composition using a 6-month precipitation exclusion experiment at La Selva Biological Station, Costa Rica. Thereafter, we addressed the persistent effects of field moisture treatments by exposing soils to a controlled soil moisture gradient in the lab for 4 weeks. In the field, compositional and functional responses to reduced rainfall were dependent on initial conditions, consistent with a large degree of spatial heterogeneity in tropical forests. However, the precipitation manipulation significantly altered microbial functional responses to soil moisture. Communities with prior drought exposure exhibited higher respiration rates per unit microbial biomass under all conditions and respired significantly more CO2 than control soils at low soil moisture. These functional patterns suggest that changes in microbial physiology may drive positive feedbacks to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations if wet tropical forests experience longer or more intense dry seasons in the future.

Climate policy to defeat the green paradox.

PubMed

Fölster, Stefan; Nyström, Johan

2010-05-01

Carbon dioxide emissions have accelerated since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol. This discouraging development may partly be blamed on accelerating world growth and on lags in policy instruments. However, it also raises serious question concerning whether policies to reduce CO2 emissions are as effective as generally assumed. In recent years, a considerable number of studies have identified various feedback mechanisms of climate policies that often erode, and occasionally reinforce, their effectiveness. These studies generally focus on a few feedback mechanisms at a time, without capturing the entire effect. Partial accounting of policy feedbacks is common in many climate scenarios. The IPCC, for example, only accounts for direct leakage and rebound effects. This article attempts to map the aggregate effects of different types of climate policy feedback mechanisms in a cohesive framework. Controlling feedback effects is essential if the policy measures are to make any difference on a global level. A general conclusion is that aggregate policy feedback mechanisms tend to make current climate policies much less effective than is generally assumed. In fact, various policy measures involve a definite risk of 'backfiring' and actually increasing CO2 emissions. This risk is particularly pronounced once effects of climate policies on the pace of innovation in climate technology are considered. To stand any chance of controlling carbon emissions, it is imperative that feedback mechanisms are integrated into emission scenarios, targets for emission reduction and implementation of climate policy. In many cases, this will reduce the scope for subsidies to renewable energy sources, but increase the scope for other measures such as schemes to return carbon dioxide to the ground and to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases from wetlands and oceans. A framework that incorporates policy feedback effects necessitates rethinking the design of the national and regional emission targets. This leads us to a new way of formulating emission targets that include feedback effects, the global impact target. Once the full climate policy feedback mechanisms are accounted for, there are probably only three main routes in climate policy that stand a chance of mitigating global warming: (a) returning carbon to the ground, (b) technological leaps in zero-emission energy technology that make it profitable to leave much carbon in the ground even in Annex II countries and (c) international agreements that make it more profitable to leave carbon in the ground or in forests.

Single generation cycles and delayed feedback cycles are not separate phenomena.

PubMed

Pfaff, T; Brechtel, A; Drossel, B; Guill, C

2014-12-01

We study a simple model for generation cycles, which are oscillations with a period of one or a few generation times of the species. The model is formulated in terms of a single delay-differential equation for the population density of an adult stage, with recruitment to the adult stage depending on the intensity of competition during the juvenile phase. This model is a simplified version of a group of models proposed by Gurney and Nisbet, who were the first to distinguish between single-generation cycles and delayed-feedback cycles. According to these authors, the two oscillation types are caused by different mechanisms and have periods in different intervals, which are one to two generation times for single-generation cycles and two to four generation times for delayed-feedback cycles. By abolishing the strict coupling between the maturation time and the time delay between competition and its effect on the population dynamics, we find that single-generation cycles and delayed-feedback cycles occur in the same model version, with a gradual transition between the two as the model parameters are varied over a sufficiently large range. Furthermore, cycle periods are not bounded to lie within single octaves. This implies that a clear distinction between different types of generation cycles is not possible. Cycles of all periods and even chaos can be generated by varying the parameters that determine the time during which individuals from different cohorts compete with each other. This suggests that life-cycle features in the juvenile stage and during the transition to the adult stage are important determinants of the dynamics of density limited populations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Linking biogeomorphic feedbacks from ecosystem engineer to landscape scale: a panarchy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eichel, Jana

2017-04-01

Scale is a fundamental concept in both ecology and geomorphology. Therefore, scale-based approaches are a valuable tool to bridge the disciplines and improve the understanding of feedbacks between geomorphic processes, landforms, material and organisms and ecological processes in biogeomorphology. Yet, linkages between biogeomorphic feedbacks on different scales, e.g. between ecosystem engineering and landscape scale patterns and dynamics, are not well understood. A panarchy approach sensu Holling et al. (2002) can help to close this research gap and explain how structure and function are created in biogeomorphic ecosystems. Based on results from previous biogeomorphic research in Turtmann glacier foreland (Switzerland; Eichel, 2017; Eichel et al. 2013, 2016), a panarchy concept is presented for lateral moraine slope biogeomorphic ecosystems. It depicts biogeomorphic feedbacks on different spatiotemporal scales as a set of nested adaptive cycles and links them by 'remember' and 'revolt' connections. On a small scale (cm2 - m2; seconds to years), the life cycle of the ecosystem engineer Dryas octopetala L. is considered as an adaptive cycle. Biogeomorphic succession within patches created by geomorphic processes represents an intermediate scale adaptive cycle (m2 - ha, years to decades), while geomorphic and ecologic pattern development at a landscape scale (ha - km2, decades to centuries) can be illustrated by an adaptive cycle of ‚biogeomorphic patch dynamics' (Eichel, 2017). In the panarchy, revolt connections link the smaller scale adaptive cycles to larger scale cycles: on lateral moraine slopes, the development of ecosystem engineer biomass and cover controls the engineering threshold of the biogeomorphic feedback window (Eichel et al., 2016) and therefore the onset of the biogeomorphic phase during biogeomorphic succession. In this phase, engineer patches and biogeomorphic structures can be created in the patch mosaic of the landscape. Remember connections link larger scale adaptive cycles to smaller scale cycles: configuration and properties of the lateral moraine slope patch mosaic control patch recolonization during biogeomorphic succession, while the patch-internal disturbance regime determines when the engineer can establish (establishment threshold of the biogeomorphic feedback window). Jointly, biogeomorphic feedback adaptive cycles and their connections in the panarchy create structure and function in the lateral moraine slope biogeomorphic ecosystem. Thus, by linking feedbacks on different spatiotemporal scales in biogeomorphic ecosystems and explaining the creation of ecosystem structure and function, the panarchy concept represents a useful tool for future biogeomorphic research. Eichel, J. 2017. Biogeomorphic dynamics in the Turtmann glacier forefield, Switzerland. PhD thesis, University of Bonn. Eichel J, Corenblit D, Dikau R. 2016. Conditions for feedbacks between geomorphic and vegetation dynamics on lateral moraine slopes: a biogeomorphic feedback window. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 41: 406-419. DOI: 10.1002/esp.3859 Eichel J, Krautblatter M, Schmidtlein S, Dikau R. 2013. Biogeomorphic interactions in the Turtmann glacier forefield, Switzerland. Geomorphology 201 : 98-110. DOI: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.06.012 Holling CS, Gunderson LH, Peterson GD. 2002. Sustainability and Panarchies. In Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems , . Island Press: Washington, D.C.; 63-102.

Causes of ice age intensification across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

PubMed Central

Foster, Gavin L.; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sexton, Philip F.; Cherry, Soraya G.; Hasenfratz, Adam P.; Haug, Gerald H.; Martínez-García, Alfredo; Pälike, Heiko; Pancost, Richard D.; Wilson, Paul A.

2017-01-01

During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT; 1,200–800 kya), Earth’s orbitally paced ice age cycles intensified, lengthened from ∼40,000 (∼40 ky) to ∼100 ky, and became distinctly asymmetrical. Testing hypotheses that implicate changing atmospheric CO2 levels as a driver of the MPT has proven difficult with available observations. Here, we use orbitally resolved, boron isotope CO2 data to show that the glacial to interglacial CO2 difference increased from ∼43 to ∼75 μatm across the MPT, mainly because of lower glacial CO2 levels. Through carbon cycle modeling, we attribute this decline primarily to the initiation of substantive dust-borne iron fertilization of the Southern Ocean during peak glacial stages. We also observe a twofold steepening of the relationship between sea level and CO2-related climate forcing that is suggestive of a change in the dynamics that govern ice sheet stability, such as that expected from the removal of subglacial regolith or interhemispheric ice sheet phase-locking. We argue that neither ice sheet dynamics nor CO2 change in isolation can explain the MPT. Instead, we infer that the MPT was initiated by a change in ice sheet dynamics and that longer and deeper post-MPT ice ages were sustained by carbon cycle feedbacks related to dust fertilization of the Southern Ocean as a consequence of larger ice sheets. PMID:29180424

The Importance of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Process-based Models of Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling in Terrestrial Ecosystems with Particular Emphasis on Forest Ecosystems — Selected Papers from a Workshop Organized by the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM) at the Third Biennal Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (IEMSS) in Burlington, Vermont, USA, August 9-13, 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larocque, Guy R.; Bhatti, Jagtar S.; Liu, Jinxun; Ascough, James C.; Gordon, Andrew M.

2008-01-01

Many process-based models of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles have been developed for terrestrial ecosystems, including forest ecosystems. They address many basic issues of ecosystems structure and functioning, such as the role of internal feedback in ecosystem dynamics. The critical factor in these phenomena is scale, as these processes operate at scales from the minute (e.g. particulate pollution impacts on trees and other organisms) to the global (e.g. climate change). Research efforts remain important to improve the capability of such models to better represent the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems, including the C, nutrient, (e.g. N) and water cycles. Existing models are sufficiently well advanced to help decision makers develop sustainable management policies and planning of terrestrial ecosystems, as they make realistic predictions when used appropriately. However, decision makers must be aware of their limitations by having the opportunity to evaluate the uncertainty associated with process-based models (Smith and Heath, 2001 and Allen et al., 2004). The variation in scale of issues currently being addressed by modelling efforts makes the evaluation of uncertainty a daunting task.

Processes regulating progressive nitrogen limitation under elevated carbon dioxide: a meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, J.; Qi, X.; Souza, L.; Luo, Y.

2015-10-01

Nitrogen (N) cycle has the potential to regulate climate change through its influence on carbon (C) sequestration. Although extensive researches have been done to explore whether or not progressive N limitation (PNL) occurs under CO2 enrichment, a comprehensive assessment of the processes that regulate PNL is still lacking. Here, we quantitatively synthesized the responses of all major processes and pools in terrestrial N cycle with meta-analysis of CO2 experimental data available in the literature. The results showed that CO2 enrichment significantly increased N sequestration in plant and litter pools but not in soil pool. Thus, the basis of PNL occurrence partially exists. However, CO2 enrichment also significantly increased the N influx via biological N fixation, but decreased the N efflux via leaching. In addition, no general diminished CO2 fertilization effect on plant growth over time was observed. Overall, our analyses suggest that the extra N supply by the increased biological N fixation and decreased leaching may potentially alleviate PNL under elevated CO2 conditions. Moreover, our synthesis showed that CO2 enrichment increased soil ammonium (NH4+) but decreased nitrate (NO3-). The different responses of NH4+ and NO3-, and the consequent biological processes, may result in changes in soil microenvironment, community structures and above-belowground interactions, which could potentially affect the terrestrial biogeochemical cycles and the feedback to climate change.

Causes of ice age intensification across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chalk, Thomas B.; Hain, Mathis P.; Foster, Gavin L.; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sexton, Philip F.; Badger, Marcus P. S.; Cherry, Soraya G.; Hasenfratz, Adam P.; Haug, Gerald H.; Jaccard, Samuel L.; Martínez-García, Alfredo; Pälike, Heiko; Pancost, Richard D.; Wilson, Paul A.

2017-12-01

During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT; 1,200–800 kya), Earth's orbitally paced ice age cycles intensified, lengthened from ˜40,000 (˜40 ky) to ˜100 ky, and became distinctly asymmetrical. Testing hypotheses that implicate changing atmospheric CO2 levels as a driver of the MPT has proven difficult with available observations. Here, we use orbitally resolved, boron isotope CO2 data to show that the glacial to interglacial CO2 difference increased from ˜43 to ˜75 μatm across the MPT, mainly because of lower glacial CO2 levels. Through carbon cycle modeling, we attribute this decline primarily to the initiation of substantive dust-borne iron fertilization of the Southern Ocean during peak glacial stages. We also observe a twofold steepening of the relationship between sea level and CO2-related climate forcing that is suggestive of a change in the dynamics that govern ice sheet stability, such as that expected from the removal of subglacial regolith or interhemispheric ice sheet phase-locking. We argue that neither ice sheet dynamics nor CO2 change in isolation can explain the MPT. Instead, we infer that the MPT was initiated by a change in ice sheet dynamics and that longer and deeper post-MPT ice ages were sustained by carbon cycle feedbacks related to dust fertilization of the Southern Ocean as a consequence of larger ice sheets.

Global warming and climate change in Amazonia: Climate-vegetation feedback and impacts on water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marengo, José; Nobre, Carlos A.; Betts, Richard A.; Cox, Peter M.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Salazar, Luis

This chapter constitutes an updated review of long-term climate variability and change in the Amazon region, based on observational data spanning more than 50 years of records and on climate-change modeling studies. We start with the early experiments on Amazon deforestation in the late 1970s, and the evolution of these experiments to the latest studies on greenhouse gases emission scenarios and land use changes until the end of the twenty-first century. The "Amazon dieback" simulated by the HadCM3 model occurs after a "tipping point" of CO2 concentration and warming. Experiments on Amazon deforestation and change of climate suggest that once a critical deforestation threshold (or tipping point) of 40-50% forest loss is reached in eastern Amazonia, climate would change in a way which is dangerous for the remaining forest. This may favor a collapse of the tropical forest, with a substitution of the forest by savanna-type vegetation. The concept of "dangerous climate change," as a climate change, which induces positive feedback, which accelerate the change, is strongly linked to the occurrence of tipping points, and it can be explained as the presence of feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, particularly involving a weakening of the current terrestrial carbon sink and a possible reversal from a sink (as in present climate) to a source by the year 2050. We must, therefore, currently consider the drying simulated by the Hadley Centre model(s) as having a finite probability under global warming, with a potentially enormous impact, but with some degree of uncertainty.

The Biogeochemical Role of Baleen Whales and Krill in Southern Ocean Nutrient Cycling

PubMed Central

Ratnarajah, Lavenia; Bowie, Andrew R.; Lannuzel, Delphine; Meiners, Klaus M.; Nicol, Stephen

2014-01-01

The availability of micronutrients is a key factor that affects primary productivity in High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll (HNLC) regions of the Southern Ocean. Nutrient supply is governed by a range of physical, chemical and biological processes, and there are significant feedbacks within the ecosystem. It has been suggested that baleen whales form a crucial part of biogeochemical cycling processes through the consumption of nutrient-rich krill and subsequent defecation, but data on their contribution are scarce. We analysed the concentration of iron, cadmium, manganese, cobalt, copper, zinc, phosphorus and carbon in baleen whale faeces and muscle, and krill tissue using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Metal concentrations in krill tissue were between 20 thousand and 4.8 million times higher than typical Southern Ocean HNLC seawater concentrations, while whale faecal matter was between 276 thousand and 10 million times higher. These findings suggest that krill act as a mechanism for concentrating and retaining elements in the surface layer, which are subsequently released back into the ocean, once eaten by whales, through defecation. Trace metal to carbon ratios were also higher in whale faeces compared to whale muscle indicating that whales are concentrating carbon and actively defecating trace elements. Consequently, recovery of the great whales may facilitate the recycling of nutrients via defecation, which may affect productivity in HNLC areas. PMID:25469984

The biogeochemical role of baleen whales and krill in Southern Ocean nutrient cycling.

PubMed

Ratnarajah, Lavenia; Bowie, Andrew R; Lannuzel, Delphine; Meiners, Klaus M; Nicol, Stephen

2014-01-01

The availability of micronutrients is a key factor that affects primary productivity in High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll (HNLC) regions of the Southern Ocean. Nutrient supply is governed by a range of physical, chemical and biological processes, and there are significant feedbacks within the ecosystem. It has been suggested that baleen whales form a crucial part of biogeochemical cycling processes through the consumption of nutrient-rich krill and subsequent defecation, but data on their contribution are scarce. We analysed the concentration of iron, cadmium, manganese, cobalt, copper, zinc, phosphorus and carbon in baleen whale faeces and muscle, and krill tissue using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Metal concentrations in krill tissue were between 20 thousand and 4.8 million times higher than typical Southern Ocean HNLC seawater concentrations, while whale faecal matter was between 276 thousand and 10 million times higher. These findings suggest that krill act as a mechanism for concentrating and retaining elements in the surface layer, which are subsequently released back into the ocean, once eaten by whales, through defecation. Trace metal to carbon ratios were also higher in whale faeces compared to whale muscle indicating that whales are concentrating carbon and actively defecating trace elements. Consequently, recovery of the great whales may facilitate the recycling of nutrients via defecation, which may affect productivity in HNLC areas.

Do microbial processes regulate the stability of a coral atoll's enclosed pelagic ecosystem?

EPA Science Inventory

Complex marine ecosystems contain multiple feedback cycles that can cause unexpected responses to perturbations. To better predict these responses, complicated models are increasingly being developed to enable the study of feedback cycles. However, the sparseness of ecological da...

Modelling Holocene peatland and permafrost dynamics with the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhary, Nitin; Miller, Paul A.; Smith, Benjamin

2016-04-01

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are an important platform to study past, present and future vegetation patterns together with associated biogeochemical cycles and climate feedbacks (e.g. Sitch et al. 2008, Smith et al. 2001). However, very few attempts have been made to simulate peatlands using DGVMs (Kleinen et al. 2012, Tang et al. 2015, Wania et al. 2009a). In the present study, we have improved the peatland dynamics in the state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) in order to understand the long-term evolution of northern peatland ecosystems and to assess the effect of changing climate on peatland carbon balance. We combined a dynamic multi-layer approach (Frolking et al. 2010, Hilbert et al. 2000) with soil freezing-thawing functionality (Ekici et al. 2015, Wania et al. 2009a) in LPJ-GUESS. The new model is named LPJ-GUESS Peatland (LPJ-GUESS-P) (Chaudhary et al. in prep). The model was calibrated and tested at the sub-arctic mire in Stordalen, Sweden, and the model was able to capture the reported long-term vegetation dynamics and peat accumulation patterns in the mire (Kokfelt et al. 2010). For evaluation, the model was run at 13 grid points across a north to south transect in Europe. The modelled peat accumulation values were found to be consistent with the published data for each grid point (Loisel et al. 2014). Finally, a series of additional experiments were carried out to investigate the vulnerability of high-latitude peatlands to climate change. We find that the Stordalen mire will sequester more carbon in the future due to milder and wetter climate conditions, longer growing seasons, and the carbon fertilization effect. References: - Chaudhary et al. (in prep.). Modelling Holocene peatland and permafrost dynamics with the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model - Ekici A, et al. 2015. Site-level model intercomparison of high latitude and high altitude soil thermal dynamics in tundra and barren landscapes. The Cryosphere 9: 1343-1361. - Frolking S, Roulet NT, Tuittila E, Bubier JL, Quillet A, Talbot J, Richard PJH. 2010. A new model of Holocene peatland net primary production, decomposition, water balance, and peat accumulation. Earth Syst. Dynam., 1, 1-21, doi:10.5194/esd-1-1-2010, 2010. - Hilbert DW, Roulet N, Moore T. 2000. Modelling and analysis of peatlands as dynamical systems. Journal of Ecology 88: 230-242. - Kleinen T, Brovkin V, Schuldt RJ. 2012. A dynamic model of wetland extent and peat accumulation: results for the Holocene. Biogeosciences 9: 235-248. - Kokfelt U, Reuss N, Struyf E, Sonesson M, Rundgren M, Skog G, Rosen P, Hammarlund D. 2010. Wetland development, permafrost history and nutrient cycling inferred from late Holocene peat and lake sediment records in subarctic Sweden. Journal of Paleolimnology 44: 327-342. - Loisel J, et al. 2014. A database and synthesis of northern peatland soil properties and Holocene carbon and nitrogen accumulation. Holocene 24: 1028-1042. - Sitch S, et al. 2008. Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Global Change Biology 14: 2015-2039. - Smith B, Prentice IC, Sykes MT. 2001. Representation of vegetation dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space. Global Ecology and Biogeography 10: 621-637. - Tang J, et al. 2015. Carbon budget estimation of a subarctic catchment using a dynamic ecosystem model at high spatial resolution. Biogeosciences 12: 2791-2808. - Wania R, Ross I, Prentice IC. 2009a. Integrating peatlands and permafrost into a dynamic global vegetation model: 1. Evaluation and sensitivity of physical land surface processes. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 23.

Oxygen Minimum Zones in Miniature: Microbial Community Diversity, Activity, and Assembly Across Oxygen Gradients in Meromictic Marine Lakes, Palau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beman, J. M.

2016-02-01

Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) play a central role in biogeochemical cycles and are expanding as a consequence of climate change, yet our understanding of these changes is limited by a lack of systematic analyses of low-oxygen ecosystems. In particular, forecasting biogeochemical feedbacks to deoxygenation requires detailed knowledge of microbial community assembly and activity as oxygen declines. Marine `lakes'—isolated bodies of seawater surrounded by land—are an ideal comparative system, as they provide a pronounced oxygen gradient extending from well-mixed, holomictic lakes to stratified, meromictic lakes that vary in their extent of anoxia. We examined 13 marine lakes using pyrosequencing of 16S rRNA genes, quantitative PCR for nitrogen (N)- and sulfur (S)-cycling functional genes and groups, and N- and carbon (C)-cycling rate measurements. All lakes were inhabited by well-known marine bacteria, demonstrating the broad relevance of this study system. Microbial diversity was typically highest in the anoxic monimolimnion of meromictic lakes, with marine cyanobacteria, SAR11, and other common bacteria replaced by anoxygenic phototrophs, sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRBs), and SAR406 in the monimolimnion. Denitrifier nitrite reductase (nirS) genes were also detected alongside high abundances (>106 ml-1) of dissimilatory sulfite reductase (dsrA) genes from SRBs in the monimolimnion. Sharp changes in community structure were linked to environmental gradients (constrained variation in redundancy analysis=76%) and deterministic processes dominated community assembly at all depths (nearest taxon index values >4). These results indicate that oxygen is a strong, deterministic driver of microbial community assembly. We also observed enhanced N- and C-cycling rates along the transition from hypoxic to anoxic to sulfidic conditions, suggesting that microbial communities form a positive feedback loop that may accelerate deoxygenation and OMZ expansion.

Net drainage effects on CO2 fluxes of a permafrost ecosystem through eddy-covariance measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kittler, Fanny; Burjack, Ina; Zimov, Nikita; Zimov, Sergey; Heimann, Martin; Göckede, Mathias

2015-04-01

Permafrost landscapes in the Northern high latitudes with their massive organic carbon stocks are critically important for the global carbon cycle, yet feedback processes with the atmosphere under future climate conditions are uncertain. To improve the understanding of mechanisms and drivers dominating permafrost carbon cycling, we established a continuous observation program in moist tussock tundra ecosystem near Cherskiy in North-eastern Siberia (68.75°N, 161.33°E). The experiment has been designed to monitor carbon cycle fluxes at different scales with different approaches, including e.g. the eddy-covariance technique, and their environmental drivers. Recent observations started mid July 2013 and are still ongoing, while 'historic' measurements are available for the period 2002-2005. Since 2004 part of the observation area has been disturbed by a drainage ditch ring, altering the soil water conditions in the surrounding area in a way that is expected for degrading ice-rich permafrost under a warming climate. With parallel observations over the disturbed (drained) area and a reference area nearby, respectively, we aim to evaluate the disturbance effect on the carbon cycle budgets and the dominating biogeochemical mechanisms. Here, findings based on over 1.5 years of continuous eddy-covariance CO2 flux measurements (July 2013 - March 2015) for both observation areas are presented. Results show systematic shifts in the tundra ecosystem as a result of 10 years of disturbance in the drained area, with significant effects on biotic and abiotic site conditions as well as on the carbon cycle dynamics. Comparing the net budget fluxes between both observations areas indicates a reduction of the net sink strength for CO2 of the drained ecosystem during the summer season in comparison to natural conditions, mostly caused by reduced CO2 uptake with low water levels in late summer. Regarding the long-term CO2 uptake dynamics of the disturbance regime (2005 vs. 2013/14) the drained area has strongly rebounded from a strong reduction in NEE sink strength immediately following the disturbance. The observed significant increase in summertime uptake, has been caused mostly by an overall increase in the gross primary production. Based on the analysis of environmental drivers derived by in situ measurements and remote sensing products, this increase in summertime uptake is not linked to corresponding increases in air temperature, while there are some links to a greening of the ecosystem as observed in MODIS NDVI data. Finally, we present results on the role of the flux patterns during the non-growing season for the annual carbon budget, with a particular focus on the contributions of the shoulder seasons.

Interactions and Feedbacks Between Land Surface Processes and Water Cycle Dynamics in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prince, S. D.; Xue, Y.; Song, G.; Cox, P. M.

2012-12-01

In the past three decades, numerous modeling sensitivity studies have established the importance of detailed vegetation and atmosphere interactions in West African water cycle dynamics. Recently, new evidence has emerged from satellite data analyses that indicate a fully coupled process is needed to explain the relationships discovered in these analyses. In order to elucidate the processes, we have applied the off-line Simplified Simple Biosphere Model version 4/Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics Model (SSiB4/TRIFFID). SSiB4 is a biophysical model based on surface water and energy balance which interacts with TRIFFID by providing the carbon assimilation. TRIFFID is a dynamic vegetation model based on carbon balance. The offline SSiB4/TRIFFID was integrated using the observed precipitation and reanalysis-based meteorological forcing from 1948 to 2006 over West Africa. West Africa has diverse climate and ecosystem regions. It suffered the most severe and longest drought in the world during the 20th century, and has the most pronounced decadal water cycle variability in the planet. The simulation results indicate that the water cycle variability has significant effects on the spatial distributions and temporal variations of plant functional types and leaf area index (LAI), which are generally consistent with those observed from satellites since the 1980s. The simulated vegetation conditions over Sahel region exhibited seasonal, inter-annual variations, consistent with West Africa monsoon variability, and the simulated inter-decadal variability in vegetation was consistent with the Sahel drought in the 1970s and 1980s and partial recovery in the 1990s and 2000s. To further understand the cause of decadal variability of climate, water cycle and vegetation dynamics, experiments were conducted to investigate the relationship between the LAI, atmospheric carbon dioxide increase and global warming. In one experiment, the 1948 atmospheric carbon dioxide was used (310 ppmv) and in another it was increased as observed. The LAI increased linearly between the fixed and elevated carbon dioxide, suggesting carbon dioxide fertilization. This increase was related to an increase in shrubs and decrease in C4 grasses. The greatest increases in LAI in the Sahel occurred during the winter. To understand how the warming trend affected decadal variability, we compared an experiment with observed temperature (with warming trend) and another in which the warming trend was removed. The simulations showed a reduction in LAI due to the warming after 1980, although it was not as strong as the carbon fertilization effects. High temperature created stress on vegetation over the Sahel, and especially over its transition zone. However, the fertilization effect dominated the global warming effect.

Abundant pre-industrial carbon detected in Canadian Arctic headwaters: implications for the permafrost carbon feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dean, J. F.; van der Velde, Y.; Garnett, M. H.; Dinsmore, K. J.; Baxter, R.; Lessels, J. S.; Smith, P.; Street, L. E.; Subke, J.-A.; Tetzlaff, D.; Washbourne, I.; Wookey, P. A.; Billett, M. F.

2018-03-01

Mobilization of soil/sediment organic carbon into inland waters constitutes a substantial, but poorly-constrained, component of the global carbon cycle. Radiocarbon (14C) analysis has proven a valuable tool in tracing the sources and fate of mobilized carbon, but aquatic 14C studies in permafrost regions rarely detect ‘old’ carbon (assimilated from the atmosphere into plants and soil prior to AD1950). The emission of greenhouse gases derived from old carbon by aquatic systems may indicate that carbon sequestered prior to AD1950 is being destabilized, thus contributing to the ‘permafrost carbon feedback’ (PCF). Here, we measure directly the 14C content of aquatic CO2, alongside dissolved organic carbon, in headwater systems of the western Canadian Arctic—the first such concurrent measurements in the Arctic. Age distribution analysis indicates that the age of mobilized aquatic carbon increased significantly during the 2014 snow-free season as the active layer deepened. This increase in age was more pronounced in DOC, rising from 101-228 years before sampling date (a 120%-125% increase) compared to CO2, which rose from 92-151 years before sampling date (a 59%-63% increase). ‘Pre-industrial’ aged carbon (assimilated prior to ~AD1750) comprised 15%-40% of the total aquatic carbon fluxes, demonstrating the prevalence of old carbon to Arctic headwaters. Although the presence of this old carbon is not necessarily indicative of a net positive PCF, we provide an approach and baseline data which can be used for future assessment of the PCF.

Controls on terrestrial carbon feedbacks by productivity versus turnover in the CMIP5 Earth System Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koven, C. D.; Chambers, J. Q.; Georgiou, K.

To better understand sources of uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, we present an approach to separate the controls on modeled carbon changes. We separate carbon changes into four categories using a linearized, equilibrium approach: those arising from changed inputs (productivity-driven changes), and outputs (turnover-driven changes), of both the live and dead carbon pools. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations for five models, we find that changes to the live pools are primarily explained by productivity-driven changes, with only one model showing large compensating changes to live carbon turnover times. For dead carbon pools, themore » situation is more complex as all models predict a large reduction in turnover times in response to increases in productivity. This response arises from the common representation of a broad spectrum of decomposition turnover times via a multi-pool approach, in which flux-weighted turnover times are faster than mass-weighted turnover times. This leads to a shift in the distribution of carbon among dead pools in response to changes in inputs, and therefore a transient but long-lived reduction in turnover times. Since this behavior, a reduction in inferred turnover times resulting from an increase in inputs, is superficially similar to priming processes, but occurring without the mechanisms responsible for priming, we call the phenomenon "false priming", and show that it masks much of the intrinsic changes to dead carbon turnover times as a result of changing climate. These patterns hold across the fully coupled, biogeochemically coupled, and radiatively coupled 1 % yr −1 increasing CO 2 experiments. We disaggregate inter-model uncertainty in the globally integrated equilibrium carbon responses to initial turnover times, initial productivity, fractional changes in turnover, and fractional changes in productivity. For both the live and dead carbon pools, inter-model spread in carbon changes arising from initial conditions is dominated by model disagreement on turnover times, whereas inter-model spread in carbon changes from fractional changes to these terms is dominated by model disagreement on changes to productivity in response to both warming and CO 2 fertilization. However, the lack of changing turnover time control on carbon responses, for both live and dead carbon pools, in response to the imposed forcings may arise from a common lack of process representation behind changing turnover times (e.g., allocation and mortality for live carbon; permafrost, microbial dynamics, and mineral stabilization for dead carbon), rather than a true estimate of the importance of these processes.« less

Controls on terrestrial carbon feedbacks by productivity versus turnover in the CMIP5 Earth System Models

DOE PAGES

Koven, C. D.; Chambers, J. Q.; Georgiou, K.; ...

2015-09-07

To better understand sources of uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, we present an approach to separate the controls on modeled carbon changes. We separate carbon changes into four categories using a linearized, equilibrium approach: those arising from changed inputs (productivity-driven changes), and outputs (turnover-driven changes), of both the live and dead carbon pools. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations for five models, we find that changes to the live pools are primarily explained by productivity-driven changes, with only one model showing large compensating changes to live carbon turnover times. For dead carbon pools, themore » situation is more complex as all models predict a large reduction in turnover times in response to increases in productivity. This response arises from the common representation of a broad spectrum of decomposition turnover times via a multi-pool approach, in which flux-weighted turnover times are faster than mass-weighted turnover times. This leads to a shift in the distribution of carbon among dead pools in response to changes in inputs, and therefore a transient but long-lived reduction in turnover times. Since this behavior, a reduction in inferred turnover times resulting from an increase in inputs, is superficially similar to priming processes, but occurring without the mechanisms responsible for priming, we call the phenomenon "false priming", and show that it masks much of the intrinsic changes to dead carbon turnover times as a result of changing climate. These patterns hold across the fully coupled, biogeochemically coupled, and radiatively coupled 1 % yr −1 increasing CO 2 experiments. We disaggregate inter-model uncertainty in the globally integrated equilibrium carbon responses to initial turnover times, initial productivity, fractional changes in turnover, and fractional changes in productivity. For both the live and dead carbon pools, inter-model spread in carbon changes arising from initial conditions is dominated by model disagreement on turnover times, whereas inter-model spread in carbon changes from fractional changes to these terms is dominated by model disagreement on changes to productivity in response to both warming and CO 2 fertilization. However, the lack of changing turnover time control on carbon responses, for both live and dead carbon pools, in response to the imposed forcings may arise from a common lack of process representation behind changing turnover times (e.g., allocation and mortality for live carbon; permafrost, microbial dynamics, and mineral stabilization for dead carbon), rather than a true estimate of the importance of these processes.« less

Deep Sea Shell Taphonomy: Interactive benthic experiments in hydrate environments of Barkley Canyon, Ocean Networks Canada.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Best, Mairi; Purser, Autun

2015-04-01

In order to quantify and track the rates and processes of modification of biogenic carbonate in gas hydrate environments, and their possible environmental/ecological correlates, ongoing observations of experimentally deployed specimens are being made using a remotely controlled crawler with camera and sensors. The crawler is connected to NEPTUNE Canada, an 800km, 5-node, regional cabled ocean network across the northern Juan de Fuca Plate, northeastern Pacific, part of Ocean Networks Canada. One of 15 study areas is an environment of exposed hydrate mounds along the wall of Barkley Canyon, at ˜865m water depth. This is the home of a benthic crawler developed by Jacobs University of Germany, who is affectionately known as Wally. Wally is equipped with a range of sensors including cameras, methane sensor, current meter, fluorometer, turbidity meter, CTD, and a sediment microprofiler with probes for oxygen, methane, sulphide, pH, temperature, and conductivity. In conjunction with this sensor suite, a series of experiments have been designed to assess the cycling of biogenic carbon and carbonate in this complex environment. The biota range from microbes, to molluscs, to large fish, and therefore the carbon inputs include both a range of organic carbon compounds as well as the complex materials that are "biogenic carbonate". Controlled experimental specimens were deployed of biogenic carbonate (Mytilus edulis fresh shells) and cellulose (pieces of untreated pine lumber) that had been previously well characterized (photographed, weighed, and numbered, matching valves and lumber kept as controls). Deployment at the sediment/water interface was in such a way to maximize natural burial exhumation cycles but to minimize specimen interaction. 10 replicate specimens of each material were deployed in two treatments: 1) adjacent to a natural life and death assemblage of chemosynthetic bivalves and exposed hydrate on a hydrate mound and 2) on the muddy seafloor at a distance from the mound. On retrieval, the specimens are being further studied for net material loss, surface alteration, microbial recruitment, endo- and epibionts, and microstructural and chemical modification. Understanding the production and cycling of carbon across the sediment/water interface in this environment will help elucidate the formation and evolution of these hydrate deposits, their distribution through time, and the ecological and taphonomic feedbacks they generate.

Weathering by tree-root-associating fungi diminishes under simulated Cenozoic atmospheric CO2 decline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quirk, J.; Leake, J. R.; Banwart, S. A.; Taylor, L. L.; Beerling, D. J.

2014-01-01

Trees dominate terrestrial biotic weathering of silicate minerals by converting solar energy into chemical energy that fuels roots and their ubiquitous nutrient-mobilising fungal symbionts. These biological activities regulate atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]a) over geologic timescales by driving calcium and magnesium fluvial ion export and marine carbonate formation. However, the important stabilising feedbacks between [CO2]a and biotic weathering anticipated by geochemical carbon cycle models remain untested. We report experimental evidence for a negative feedback across a declining Cenozoic [CO2]a range from 1500 to 200 ppm, whereby low [CO2]a curtails mineral surface alteration via trenching and etch pitting by arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungal partners of tree roots. Optical profile imaging using vertical scanning interferometry reveals changes in nanoscale surface topography consistent with a dual mode of attack involving delamination and trenching by AM and EM fungal hyphae on phyllosilicate mineral flakes. This is consistent with field observations of micropores in feldspar, hornblende and basalt, purportedly caused by EM fungi, but with little confirmatory evidence. Integrating these findings into a process-based biotic weathering model revealed that low [CO2]a effectively acts as a "carbon starvation" brake, causing a three-fold drop in tree-driven fungal weathering fluxes of calcium and magnesium from silicate rock grains as [CO2]a falls from 1500 to 200 ppm. The feedback is regulated through the action of low [CO2]a on host tree productivity and provides empirical evidence for the role of [CO2]a starvation in diminishing the contribution of trees and mycorrhizal fungi to rates of biological weathering. More broadly, diminished tree-driven weathering under declining [CO2]a may provide an important contributory mechanism stabilising Earth's [CO2]a minimum over the past 24 million years.

Weathering by tree root-associating fungi diminishes under simulated Cenozoic atmospheric CO2 decline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quirk, J.; Leake, J. R.; Banwart, S. A.; Taylor, L. L.; Beerling, D. J.

2013-10-01

Trees dominate terrestrial biotic weathering of silicate minerals by converting solar energy into chemical energy that fuels roots and their ubiquitous nutrient-mobilising fungal symbionts. These biological activities regulate atmospheric CO2 ([CO2]a) over geologic timescales by driving calcium and magnesium fluvial ion export and marine carbonate formation, but the important stabilising feedbacks between [CO2]a and biotic weathering anticipated by geochemical carbon cycle models remain untested. We report experimental evidence for a negative feedback across a declining Cenozoic [CO2]a range from 1500 ppm to 200 ppm, whereby low [CO2]a curtails mineral surface alteration via trenching and etch pitting by arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungal partners of tree roots. Optical profile imaging using vertical scanning interferometry reveals changes in nanoscale surface topography consistent with a dual mode of attack involving delamination and trenching by AM and EM fungal hyphae on phyllosilicate mineral flakes. This is consistent with field observations of micropores in feldspar, hornblende and basalt, purportedly caused by EM fungi, but with little confirmatory evidence. Integrating these findings into a process-based biotic weathering model revealed that low [CO2]a effectively acts as a "carbon starvation" brake, causing a three-fold drop in tree-driven fungal weathering fluxes of calcium and magnesium from silicate rock grains as [CO2]a falls from 1500 ppm to 200 ppm. The feedback is regulated through the action of low [CO2]a on host tree productivity and provides empirical evidence for the role of [CO2]a starvation in diminishing the contribution of trees and mycorrhizal fungi to rates of biological weathering. More broadly, diminished tree-driven weathering under declining [CO2]a may provide an important contributory mechanism stabilising Earth's [CO2]a minimum over the past 24 million years.

Modeling the Space-Time Destiny of Pan-Arctic Permafrost DOC in a Global Land Surface Model: Feedback Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowring, S.; Lauerwald, R.; Guenet, B.; Zhu, D.; Ciais, P.

2017-12-01

Most global climate models do not represent the unique permafrost soil environment and its respective processes. This significantly contributes to uncertainty in estimating their responses, and that of the planet at large, to warming. Here, the production, transport and atmospheric release of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from high-latitude permafrost soils into inland waters and the ocean is explicitly represented for the first time in the land surface component (ORCHIDEE-MICT) of a CMIP6 global climate model (IPSL). This work merges two models that are able to mechanistically simulate complex processes for 1) snow, ice and soil phenomena in high latitude environments, and 2) DOC production and lateral transport through soils and the river network, respectively, at 0.5° to 2° resolution. The resulting model is subjected to a wide range of input forcing data, parameter testing and contentious feedback phenomena, including microbial heat generation as the active layer deepens. We present results for the present and future Pan-Arctic and Eurasia, with a focus on the Lena and Mackenzie River basins, and show that soil DOC concentrations, their riverine transport and atmospheric evasion are reasonably well represented as compared to observed stocks, fluxes and seasonality. We show that most basins exhibit large increases in DOC transport and riverine CO2 evasion across the suite of RCP scenarios to 2100. We also show that model output is strongly influenced by choice of input forcing data. The riverine component of what is known as the `boundless carbon cycle' is little-recognized in global climate modeling. Hydrological mobilization to the river network results either in sedimentary settling or atmospheric `evasion', presently amounting to 0.5-1.8 PgC yr-1. Our work aims at filling in these knowledge gaps, and the response of these DOC-related processes to thermal forcing. Potential feedbacks owing to such a response are of particular relevance, given the magnitude of the permafrost carbon pool.

Dynamical diagnostics of the SST annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific: part I a linear coupled framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ying-Ying; Jin, Fei-Fei

2018-03-01

The eastern equatorial Pacific has a pronounced westward propagating SST annual cycle resulting from ocean-atmosphere interactions with equatorial semiannual solar forcing and off-equatorial annual solar forcing conveyed to the equator. In this two-part paper, a simple linear coupled framework is proposed to quantify the internal dynamics and external forcing for a better understanding of the linear part of the dynamics annual cycle. It is shown that an essential internal dynamical factor is the SST damping rate which measures the coupled stability in a similar way as the Bjerknes instability index for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. It comprises three major negative terms (dynamic damping due to the Ekman pumping feedback, mean circulation advection, and thermodynamic feedback) and two positive terms (thermocline feedback and zonal advection). Another dynamical factor is the westward-propagation speed that is mainly determined by the thermodynamic feedback, the Ekman pumping feedback, and the mean circulation. The external forcing is measured by the annual and semiannual forcing factors. These linear internal and external factors, which can be estimated from data, determine the amplitude of the annual cycle.

Can Microbial Ecology and Mycorrhizal Functioning Inform Climate Change Models?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hofmockel, Kirsten; Hobbie, Erik

Our funded research focused on soil organic matter dynamics and plant-microbe interactions by examining the role of belowground processes and mechanisms across scales, including decomposition of organic molecules, microbial interactions, and plant-microbe interactions associated with a changing climate. Research foci included mycorrhizal mediated priming of soil carbon turnover, organic N use and depolymerization by free-living microbes and mycorrhizal fungi, and the use of isotopes as additional constraints for improved modeling of belowground processes. This work complemented the DOE’s mandate to understand both the consequences of atmospheric and climatic change for key ecosystems and the feedbacks on C cycling.

Observational Evidence of Impacts of Aerosols on Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability of the Asian Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Kim, K.-M.; Hsu, N. C.

2006-01-01

Observational evidences are presented showing that the Indian subcontinent and surrounding regions are subject to heavy loading of absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon), with strong seasonality closely linked to the monsoon annual rainfall cycle. Increased loading of absorbing aerosols over the Indo-Gangetic Plain in April-May is associated with a) increased heating of the upper troposphere over the Tibetan Plateau, b) an advance of the monsoon rainy season, and c) subsequent enhancement of monsoon rainfall over the South Asia subcontinent, and reduction over East Asia. Also presented are radiative transfer calculations showing how differential solar absorption by aerosols over bright surface (desert or snow cover land) compared to dark surface (vegetated land and ocean), may be instrumental in triggering an aerosol-monsoon large-scale circulation and water cycle feedback, consistent with the elevated heat pump hypothesis (Lau et al. 2006).

Thermal acclimation of leaf respiration of tropical trees and lianas: response to experimental canopy warming, and consequences for tropical forest carbon balance.

PubMed

Slot, Martijn; Rey-Sánchez, Camilo; Gerber, Stefan; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Winter, Klaus; Kitajima, Kaoru

2014-09-01

Climate warming is expected to increase respiration rates of tropical forest trees and lianas, which may negatively affect the carbon balance of tropical forests. Thermal acclimation could mitigate the expected respiration increase, but the thermal acclimation potential of tropical forests remains largely unknown. In a tropical forest in Panama, we experimentally increased nighttime temperatures of upper canopy leaves of three tree and two liana species by on average 3 °C for 1 week, and quantified temperature responses of leaf dark respiration. Respiration at 25 °C (R25 ) decreased with increasing leaf temperature, but acclimation did not result in perfect homeostasis of respiration across temperatures. In contrast, Q10 of treatment and control leaves exhibited similarly high values (range 2.5-3.0) without evidence of acclimation. The decrease in R25 was not caused by respiratory substrate depletion, as warming did not reduce leaf carbohydrate concentration. To evaluate the wider implications of our experimental results, we simulated the carbon cycle of tropical latitudes (24°S-24°N) from 2000 to 2100 using a dynamic global vegetation model (LM3VN) modified to account for acclimation. Acclimation reduced the degree to which respiration increases with climate warming in the model relative to a no-acclimation scenario, leading to 21% greater increase in net primary productivity and 18% greater increase in biomass carbon storage over the 21st century. We conclude that leaf respiration of tropical forest plants can acclimate to nighttime warming, thereby reducing the magnitude of the positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giorgetta, Marco A.; Jungclaus, Johann; Reick, Christian H.; Legutke, Stephanie; Bader, Jürgen; Böttinger, Michael; Brovkin, Victor; Crueger, Traute; Esch, Monika; Fieg, Kerstin; Glushak, Ksenia; Gayler, Veronika; Haak, Helmuth; Hollweg, Heinz-Dieter; Ilyina, Tatiana; Kinne, Stefan; Kornblueh, Luis; Matei, Daniela; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Mueller, Wolfgang; Notz, Dirk; Pithan, Felix; Raddatz, Thomas; Rast, Sebastian; Redler, Rene; Roeckner, Erich; Schmidt, Hauke; Schnur, Reiner; Segschneider, Joachim; Six, Katharina D.; Stockhause, Martina; Timmreck, Claudia; Wegner, Jörg; Widmann, Heinrich; Wieners, Karl-H.; Claussen, Martin; Marotzke, Jochem; Stevens, Bjorn

2013-07-01

The new Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) is used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in a series of climate change experiments for either idealized CO2-only forcing or forcings based on observations and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The paper gives an overview of the model configurations, experiments related forcings, and initialization procedures and presents results for the simulated changes in climate and carbon cycle. It is found that the climate feedback depends on the global warming and possibly the forcing history. The global warming from climatological 1850 conditions to 2080-2100 ranges from 1.5°C under the RCP2.6 scenario to 4.4°C under the RCP8.5 scenario. Over this range, the patterns of temperature and precipitation change are nearly independent of the global warming. The model shows a tendency to reduce the ocean heat uptake efficiency toward a warmer climate, and hence acceleration in warming in the later years. The precipitation sensitivity can be as high as 2.5% K-1 if the CO2 concentration is constant, or as small as 1.6% K-1, if the CO2 concentration is increasing. The oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon increases over time in all scenarios, being smallest in the experiment forced by RCP2.6 and largest in that for RCP8.5. The land also serves as a net carbon sink in all scenarios, predominantly in boreal regions. The strong tropical carbon sources found in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 experiments are almost absent in the RCP4.5 experiment, which can be explained by reforestation in the RCP4.5 scenario.

Forest biogeochemistry in response to drought.

PubMed

Schlesinger, William H; Dietze, Michael C; Jackson, Robert B; Phillips, Richard P; Rhoades, Charles C; Rustad, Lindsey E; Vose, James M

2016-07-01

Trees alter their use and allocation of nutrients in response to drought, and changes in soil nutrient cycling and trace gas flux (N2 O and CH4 ) are observed when experimental drought is imposed on forests. In extreme droughts, trees are increasingly susceptible to attack by pests and pathogens, which can lead to major changes in nutrient flux to the soil. Extreme droughts often lead to more common and more intense forest fires, causing dramatic changes in the nutrient storage and loss from forest ecosystems. Changes in the future manifestation of drought will affect carbon uptake and storage in forests, leading to feedbacks to the Earth's climate system. We must improve the recognition of drought in nature, our ability to manage our forests in the face of drought, and the parameterization of drought in earth system models for improved predictions of carbon uptake and storage in the world's forests. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Increase in observed net carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans during the past 50 years.

PubMed

Ballantyne, A P; Alden, C B; Miller, J B; Tans, P P; White, J W C

2012-08-02

One of the greatest sources of uncertainty for future climate predictions is the response of the global carbon cycle to climate change. Although approximately one-half of total CO(2) emissions is at present taken up by combined land and ocean carbon reservoirs, models predict a decline in future carbon uptake by these reservoirs, resulting in a positive carbon-climate feedback. Several recent studies suggest that rates of carbon uptake by the land and ocean have remained constant or declined in recent decades. Other work, however, has called into question the reported decline. Here we use global-scale atmospheric CO(2) measurements, CO(2) emission inventories and their full range of uncertainties to calculate changes in global CO(2) sources and sinks during the past 50 years. Our mass balance analysis shows that net global carbon uptake has increased significantly by about 0.05 billion tonnes of carbon per year and that global carbon uptake doubled, from 2.4 ± 0.8 to 5.0 ± 0.9 billion tonnes per year, between 1960 and 2010. Therefore, it is very unlikely that both land and ocean carbon sinks have decreased on a global scale. Since 1959, approximately 350 billion tonnes of carbon have been emitted by humans to the atmosphere, of which about 55 per cent has moved into the land and oceans. Thus, identifying the mechanisms and locations responsible for increasing global carbon uptake remains a critical challenge in constraining the modern global carbon budget and predicting future carbon-climate interactions.

[Modeling of carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystem: a review].

PubMed

Mao, Liuxi; Sun, Yanling; Yan, Xiaodong

2006-11-01

Terrestrial carbon cycling is one of the important issues in global change research, while carbon cycling modeling has become a necessary method and tool in understanding this cycling. This paper reviewed the research progress in terrestrial carbon cycling, with the focus on the basic framework of simulation modeling, two essential models of carbon cycling, and the classes of terrestrial carbon cycling modeling, and analyzed the present situation of terrestrial carbon cycling modeling. It was pointed out that the future research direction could be based on the biophysical modeling of dynamic vegetation, and this modeling could be an important component in the earth system modeling.

A conserved SREBP-1/phosphatidylcholine feedback circuit regulates lipogenesis in metazoans.

PubMed

Walker, Amy K; Jacobs, René L; Watts, Jennifer L; Rottiers, Veerle; Jiang, Karen; Finnegan, Deirdre M; Shioda, Toshi; Hansen, Malene; Yang, Fajun; Niebergall, Lorissa J; Vance, Dennis E; Tzoneva, Monika; Hart, Anne C; Näär, Anders M

2011-11-11

Sterol regulatory element-binding proteins (SREBPs) activate genes involved in the synthesis and trafficking of cholesterol and other lipids and are critical for maintaining lipid homeostasis. Aberrant SREBP activity, however, can contribute to obesity, fatty liver disease, and insulin resistance, hallmarks of metabolic syndrome. Our studies identify a conserved regulatory circuit in which SREBP-1 controls genes in the one-carbon cycle, which produces the methyl donor S-adenosylmethionine (SAMe). Methylation is critical for the synthesis of phosphatidylcholine (PC), a major membrane component, and we find that blocking SAMe or PC synthesis in C. elegans, mouse liver, and human cells causes elevated SREBP-1-dependent transcription and lipid droplet accumulation. Distinct from negative regulation of SREBP-2 by cholesterol, our data suggest a feedback mechanism whereby maturation of nuclear, transcriptionally active SREBP-1 is controlled by levels of PC. Thus, nutritional or genetic conditions limiting SAMe or PC production may activate SREBP-1, contributing to human metabolic disorders. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Global change effects on humid tropical forests: Evidence for biogeochemical and biodiversity shifts at an ecosystem scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cusack, Daniela F.; Karpman, Jason; Ashdown, Daniel; Cao, Qian; Ciochina, Mark; Halterman, Sarah; Lydon, Scott; Neupane, Avishesh

2016-09-01

Government and international agencies have highlighted the need to focus global change research efforts on tropical ecosystems. However, no recent comprehensive review exists synthesizing humid tropical forest responses across global change factors, including warming, decreased precipitation, carbon dioxide fertilization, nitrogen deposition, and land use/land cover changes. This paper assesses research across spatial and temporal scales for the tropics, including modeling, field, and controlled laboratory studies. The review aims to (1) provide a broad understanding of how a suite of global change factors are altering humid tropical forest ecosystem properties and biogeochemical processes; (2) assess spatial variability in responses to global change factors among humid tropical regions; (3) synthesize results from across humid tropical regions to identify emergent trends in ecosystem responses; (4) identify research and management priorities for the humid tropics in the context of global change. Ecosystem responses covered here include plant growth, carbon storage, nutrient cycling, biodiversity, and disturbance regime shifts. The review demonstrates overall negative effects of global change on all ecosystem properties, with the greatest uncertainty and variability in nutrient cycling responses. Generally, all global change factors reviewed, except for carbon dioxide fertilization, demonstrate great potential to trigger positive feedbacks to global warming via greenhouse gas emissions and biogeophysical changes that cause regional warming. This assessment demonstrates that effects of decreased rainfall and deforestation on tropical forests are relatively well understood, whereas the potential effects of warming, carbon dioxide fertilization, nitrogen deposition, and plant species invasions require more cross-site, mechanistic research to predict tropical forest responses at regional and global scales.

Astronomical tunings of the Oligocene-Miocene transition from Pacific Ocean Site U1334 and implications for the carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beddow, Helen M.; Liebrand, Diederik; Wilson, Douglas S.; Hilgen, Frits J.; Sluijs, Appy; Wade, Bridget S.; Lourens, Lucas J.

2018-03-01

Astronomical tuning of sediment sequences requires both unambiguous cycle pattern recognition in climate proxy records and astronomical solutions, as well as independent information about the phase relationship between these two. Here we present two different astronomically tuned age models for the Oligocene-Miocene transition (OMT) from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1334 (equatorial Pacific Ocean) to assess the effect tuning has on astronomically calibrated ages and the geologic timescale. These alternative age models (roughly from ˜ 22 to ˜ 24 Ma) are based on different tunings between proxy records and eccentricity: the first age model is based on an aligning CaCO3 weight (wt%) to Earth's orbital eccentricity, and the second age model is based on a direct age calibration of benthic foraminiferal stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) to eccentricity. To independently test which tuned age model and associated tuning assumptions are in best agreement with independent ages based on tectonic plate-pair spreading rates, we assign the tuned ages to magnetostratigraphic reversals identified in deep-marine magnetic anomaly profiles. Subsequently, we compute tectonic plate-pair spreading rates based on the tuned ages. The resultant alternative spreading-rate histories indicate that the CaCO3 tuned age model is most consistent with a conservative assumption of constant, or linearly changing, spreading rates. The CaCO3 tuned age model thus provides robust ages and durations for polarity chrons C6Bn.1n-C7n.1r, which are not based on astronomical tuning in the latest iteration of the geologic timescale. Furthermore, it provides independent evidence that the relatively large (several 10 000 years) time lags documented in the benthic foraminiferal isotope records relative to orbital eccentricity constitute a real feature of the Oligocene-Miocene climate system and carbon cycle. The age constraints from Site U1334 thus indicate that the delayed responses of the Oligocene-Miocene climate-cryosphere system and (marine) carbon cycle resulted from highly non-linear feedbacks to astronomical forcing.

The Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment: Observing, Understanding, and Predicting Social-Ecological Change in the Far North

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mack, M. C.; Goetz, S. J.; Kasischke, E. S.; Kimball, J. S.; Boelman, N.

2015-12-01

In the high northern latitudes, climate is warming more rapidly than anywhere else on Earth, transforming vulnerable arctic tundra and boreal forest landscapes. These changes are altering the structure and function of energy, water and carbon cycles, producing significant feedbacks to regional and global climate through changes in energy, water and carbon cycles. These changes are also challenging local and global society. At the local level, communities seek to adapt to new social-ecological regimes. At the global level, changing arctic and boreal systems are increasing becoming the focus of policy discussions at all levels of decision-making. National and international scientific efforts associated with a new NASA field campaign, the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABOVE) will advance our ability to observe, understand and predict the complex, multiscale and non-linear processes that are confronting the natural and social systems in this rapidly changing region. Over the next decade, the newly assembled ABOVE Science Team will pursue this overarching question: "How vulnerable or resilient are ecosystems and society to environmental change in the Arctic and boreal region of western North America?" Through integration of remote sensing and in situ observations with modeling of both ecological and social systems, the ABOVE Science Team will advance an interdisciplinary understanding of the Far North. In this presentation, we will discuss the conceptual basis for the ABOVE Field Campaign, describe Science Team composition and timeline, and update the community on activities. In addition, we will reflect on the visionary role of Dr. Diane Wickland, retired NASA Terrestrial Ecology Program Manager and lead of the Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Focus Area, in the development and commencement of ABOVE.

Lessons from forest FACE experiments provide guidance for Amazon-FACE science plan (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norby, R. J.; Lapola, D. M.

2013-12-01

Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments have provided novel insights into the ecological mechanisms controlling the cycling and storage of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems, and they provide a strong foundation for next-generation experiments in unexplored biomes. Specific lessons from FACE experiments include: (1) Carbon cycle responses are time-dependent because component processes have different rate constants: for example, net primary productivity is increased by elevated CO2, but the response may diminish with time as N cycling feedbacks become important. (2) Carbon partitioning patterns determine the fate of the extra C taken up by CO2-enriched plants, but partitioning responses remain an important challenge for ecosystem models. (3) The influence of N cycling on plant and ecosystem C cycling continues to be a critical uncertainty, and new experiments, especially in the tropics, must also consider P cycling. (4) Plant community structure can influence the ecosystem response to elevated CO2, but dynamic vegetation effects have not been adequately addressed. These experiences from FACE experiments in temperate forests are now guiding the development of a science plan for a FACE experiment in Amazonia. Models and small-scale experimental results agree that elevated CO2 will affect the metabolism of tropical ecosystems, but the qualitative and quantitative expression of the effects are largely unknown, representing a major source of uncertainty that limits our capacity to assess the vulnerability of the Amazon forest to climate change. Recognizing the high importance of the forests of the Amazon basin on global carbon, water, and energy cycles, biodiversity conservation, and the provision of essential services in Latin America, a consortium of Brazilian researchers and international collaborators have developed a science plan for Amazon-FACE. While the challenges presented both by infrastructure needs (roads, electricity, and provision of CO2) and biology (the size and diversity of the forest) are substantial, preliminary evaluation and past experience from temperate forest FACE experiments have supported the feasibility of an experiment comprising replicated 30-m diameter FACE plots in primary forest. The proposed site is the ZF2 research area 60 km north of Manaus and administered by Brazil's National Institute for Amazonia Research (INPA). The vegetation is representative of a dominant fraction of the forests occurring in the Amazon basin: old-growth closed-canopy terra firme (non-flooded) forest with trees 30-35 m in height on well drained clay soils. The major science questions guiding the experiment are closely informed by results of past FACE experiment and involve carbon metabolism, water use, nutrient cycling, interactions with environmental stressors, and the relationship between plant functional traits and community composition. FACE experiments can define ecological processes and mechanisms of responses for predictive models of ecosystem response, and models of CO2 response can define critical uncertainties and testable hypotheses for experiments; hence, the Amazon FACE experiment will feature a close integration of modeling and experimental approaches.

Separating the Effects of Tropical Atlantic and Pacific SST-driven Climate Variability on Amazon Carbon Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liptak, J.; Keppel-Aleks, G.

2016-12-01

Amazon forests store an estimated 25% percent of global terrestrial carbon per year1, 2, but the responses of Amazon carbon uptake to climate change is highly uncertain. One source of this uncertainty is tropical sea surface temperature variability driven by teleconnections. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of year-to-year Amazon carbon exchange, with associated temperature and precipitation changes favoring net carbon storage in La Nina years, and net carbon release during El Nino years3. To determine how Amazon climate and terrestrial carbon fluxes react to ENSO alone and in concert with other SST-driven teleconnections such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), we force the atmosphere (CAM5) and land (CLM4) components of the CESM(BGC) with prescribed monthly SSTs over the period 1950—2014 in a Historical control simulation. We then run an experiment (PAC) with time-varying SSTs applied only to the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean, and repeating SST seasonal cycle climatologies elsewhere. Limiting SST variability to the equatorial Pacific indicates that other processes enhance ENSO-driven Amazon climate anomalies. Compared to the Historical control simulation, warming, drying and terrestrial carbon loss over the Amazon during El Nino periods are lower in the PAC simulation, especially prior to 1990 during the cool phase of the AMO. Cooling, moistening, and net carbon uptake during La Nina periods are also reduced in the PAC simulation, but differences are greater after 1990 during the warm phase of the AMO. By quantifying the relationships among climate drivers and carbon fluxes in the Historical and PAC simulations, we both assess the sensitivity of these relationships to the magnitude of ENSO forcing and quantify how other teleconnections affect ENSO-driven Amazon climate feedbacks. We expect that these results will help us improve hypotheses for how Atlantic and Pacific climate trends will affect future Amazon carbon carbon cycling. Pan, Y. et al. A large and persistent carbon sink in the world's forests. Science 333, 988-993 (2011) Brienen, Roel J. W. et al. Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink. Nature 519, 344-348 (2015) Botta, A. et al. Long-term variations of climate and carbon fluxes over the Amazon basin. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29 (2002)

Towards optimized methods to study viral impacts on soil microbial carbon cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trubl, G. G.; Roux, S.; Jang, H. B.; Solonenko, N.; Sullivan, M. B.; Rich, V. I.

2016-12-01

Permafrost contains 50% of global soil carbon and is rapidly thawing. While the fate of this carbon is currently unknown, it will undoubtedly be shaped by microbes and their associated viruses, which modulate host activities via mortality and metabolic control. However, little is known about soil viruses generally and their impact on terrestrial biogeochemistry; this is partially due to the presence of inhibitory substances (e.g. humic acids) in soils that interfere with sample processing and sequence-based metagenomics surveys. To address this problem, we examined viral populations in three different peat soils along a permafrost thaw gradient. These samples yielded low viral DNA recoveries, and shallow metagenomic sequencing, but still resulted in the recovery of 40 viral genome fragments. Genome- and network-based classification suggested that these new references represented 11 viral clusters, and ecological patterns (based upon non-redundant fragment recruitment) showed that viral populations were distinct in each habitat. Although only 31% of the genes could be functionally classified, pairwise genome comparisons classified 63% of the viruses taxonomically. Additionally, comparison of the 40 viral genome fragments to 53 previously recovered fragments from the same site showed no overlap, suggesting only a small portion of the resident viral community has been sampled. A follow-up experiment was performed to remove more humics during extraction and thereby obtain better viral metagenomes. Three DNA extraction protocols were tested (CTAB, PowerSoil, and Wizard columns) and the DNA was further purified with an AMPure clean-up. The PowerSoil kit maximized DNA yield (3x CTAB and 6x Wizard), and yielded the purest DNA (based on NanoDrop 260:230 ratio). Given the important roles of viruses in biogeochemical cycles in better-studied systems, further research and humic-removal optimization on these thawing permafrost-associated viral communities is needed to clarify their involvement in carbon cycle feedbacks.

A Coupled Epipelagic-Meso/Bathypelagic Particle Flux Model for the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Station (BATS)/Oceanic Flux Program (OFP) Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glover, D. M.; Conte, M.

2002-12-01

Of considerable scientific interest is the role remineralization plays in the global carbon cycle. It is the ``biological pump'' that fixes carbon in the upper water column and exports it for long time periods to the deep ocean. From a global carbon cycle point-of-view, it is the processes that govern remineralization in the mid- to deep-ocean waters that provide the feedback to the biogeochemical carbon cycle. In this study we construct an ecosystem model that serves as a mechanistic link between euphotic processes and mesopelagic and bathypelagic processes. We then use this prognostic model to further our understanding of the unparalleled time-series of deep-water sediment traps (21+ years) at the Oceanic Flux Program (OFP) and the euphotic zone measurements (10+ years) at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Site (BATS). At the core of this mechanistic ecosystem model of the mesopelagic zone is a model that consists of an active feeding habit zooplankton, a passive feeding habit zooplankton, large detritus (sinks), small detritus (non-sinking), and a nutrient pool. As the detritus, the primary source of food, moves through the water column it is fed upon by the active/passive zooplankton pair and undergoes bacterially mediated remineralization into nutrients. The large detritus pool at depth gains material from the formation of fecal pellets from the passive and active zooplankton. Sloppy feeding habits of the active zooplankton contribute to the small detrital pool. Zooplankton mortality (both classes) also contribute directly to the large detritus pool. Aggregation and disaggregation transform detrital particles from one pool to the other and back again. The nutrients at each depth will gain from detrital remineralization and zooplankton excretion. The equations that model the active zooplankton, passive zooplankton, large detritus, small detritus, and nutrients will be reviewed, results shown and future model modifications discussed.

Encouraging climate-friendly behaviors through a community energy challenge: The effects of information, feedback, and shared stories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolske, Kimberly S.

Research suggests that changes in household behavior can play a significant role in mitigating climate change. While surveys indicate that many Americans care about climate change and believe something should be done to reduce it, a number of real and perceived barriers prevent them from acting on that concern. This research investigated two strategies to promote engagement in climate-friendly behaviors: (1) providing feedback about the positive impact of participants' energy-saving efforts on their carbon footprint; and (2) sharing stories about other participants' conservation successes. A random sample of residents in a Midwest college town were invited to participate in a month-long community Energy Challenge that asked households to try to reduce their carbon footprint by 2 percent. Participants were randomly assigned to one of three treatment groups: monthly feedback, weekly feedback, and weekly feedback + stories. All participants received a booklet that gave procedural guidance and estimated carbon savings for 34 behaviors related to personal transportation, household energy use, and dietary choices. In addition, all participants were asked to track their efforts in an online log. For participants in the weekly feedback conditions, these logs estimated their total carbon savings for each week of the challenge. Weekly e-mails were sent to all groups to encourage completion of the logs. For participants in the weekly feedback + stories condition, these reminders included anecdotes about other participants' conservation experiences. Overall, the results suggest that the basic format of the Energy Challenge provided a supportive setting for developing new climate-friendly behaviors and increasing existing ones. The majority of participants (78 percent), regardless of treatment condition, achieved the Energy Challenge goal, with a median carbon savings of 6 percent. For some participants, weekly feedback helped reduce perceived barriers related to driving less and the perception that conserving requires sacrifice. Participants who had less prior conservation experience as well as those who received weekly feedback were more likely to engage in a broader set of climate-friendly behaviors. Finally, results from a follow-up survey suggest that most participants maintained the behaviors they adopted one month after the Energy Challenge ended.

Linkages between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bretherton, Francis; Dickinson, Robert E.; Fung, Inez; Moore, Berrien, III; Prather, Michael; Running, Steven W.; Tiessen, Holm

1992-01-01

The primary research issue in understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems in global change is analyzing the coupling between processes with vastly differing rates of change, from photosynthesis to community change. Representing this coupling in models is the central challenge to modeling the terrestrial biosphere as part of the earth system. Terrestrial ecosystems participate in climate and in the biogeochemical cycles on several temporal scales. Some of the carbon fixed by photosynthesis is incorporated into plant tissue and is delayed from returning to the atmosphere until it is oxidized by decomposition or fire. This slower (i.e., days to months) carbon loop through the terrestrial component of the carbon cycle, which is matched by cycles of nutrients required by plants and decomposers, affects the increasing trend in atmospheric CO2 concentration and imposes a seasonal cycle on that trend. Moreover, this cycle includes key controls over biogenic trace gas production. The structure of terrestrial ecosystems, which responds on even longer time scales (annual to century), is the integrated response to the biogeochemical and environmental constraints that develop over the intermediate time scale. The loop is closed back to the climate system since it is the structure of ecosystems, including species composition, that sets the terrestrial boundary condition in the climate system through modification of surface roughness, albedo, and, to a great extent, latent heat exchange. These separate temporal scales contain explicit feedback loops which may modify ecosystem dynamics and linkages between ecosystems and the atmosphere. The long-term change in climate, resulting from increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4, and nitrous oxide (N2O)) will further modify the global environment and potentially induce further ecosystem change. Modeling these interactions requires coupling successional models to biogeochemical models to physiological models that describe the exchange of water, energy, and biogenic trace gases between the vegetation and the atmosphere at fine time scales. There does not appear to be any obvious way to allow direct reciprocal coupling of atmospheric general circulation models (GCM's), which inherently run with fine time steps, to ecosystem or successional models, which have coarse temporal resolution, without the interposition of physiological canopy models. This is equally true for biogeochemical models of the exchange of carbon dioxide and trace gases. This coupling across time scales is nontrivial and sets the focus for the modeling strategy.

Plant Nitrogen Uptake in Terrestrial Biogeochemical Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marti, Alejandro; Cox, Peter; Sitch, Stephen; Jones, Chris; Liddicoat, spencer

2013-04-01

Most terrestrial biogeochemical models featured in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) Assessment Report highlight the importance of the terrestrial Carbon sequestration and feedbacks between the terrestrial Carbon cycle and the climate system. However, these models have been criticized for overestimating predicted Carbon sequestration and its potential climate feedback when calculating the rate of future climate change because they do not account for the Carbon sequestration constraints caused by nutrient limitation, particularly Nitrogen (N). This is particularly relevant considering the existence of a substantial deficit of Nitrogen for plants in most areas of the world. To date, most climate models assume that plants have access to as much Nitrogen as needed, but ignore the nutrient requirements for new vegetation growth. Determining the natural demand and acquisition for Nitrogen and its associated resource optimization is key when accounting for the Carbon sequestration constrains caused by nutrient limitation. The few climate models that include C-N dynamics have illustrated that the stimulation of plant growth over the coming century may be two to three times smaller than previously predicted. This reduction in growth is partially offset by an increase in the availability of nutrients resulting from an accelerated rate of decomposition of dead plants and other organic matter that occurring with a rise in temperature. However, this offset does not counterbalance the reduced level of plant growth calculated by natural nutrient limitations. Additionally, Nitrogen limitation is also expected to become more pronounced in some ecosystems as atmospheric CO2 concentration increases; resulting in less new growth and higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations than originally expected. This study compares alternative models of plant N uptake as found in different terrestrial biogeochemical models against field measurements, and introduces a new N-uptake model to the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES).. Acknowledgements This work has been funded by the European Commission FP7-PEOPLE-ITN-2008 Marie Curie Action: "Greencycles II: FP7-PEOPLE-ITN-2008 Marie Curie Action: "Networks for Initial Training"

A GEOCLIM simulation of climatic and biogeochemical consequences of Pangea breakup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnadieu, Y.; GoddéRis, Y.; Pierrehumbert, R.; Dromart, G.; Fluteau, F.; Jacob, R.

2006-11-01

Large fluctuations in continental configuration occur throughout the Mesozoic. While it has long been recognized that paleogeography may potentially influence atmospheric CO2 via the continental silicate weathering feedback, no numerical simulations have been done, because of the lack of a spatially resolved climate-carbon model. GEOCLIM, a coupled numerical model of the climate and global biogeochemical cycles, is used to investigate the consequences of the Pangea breakup. The climate module of the GEOCLIM model is the FOAM atmospheric general circulation model, allowing the calculation of the consumption of atmospheric CO2 through continental silicate weathering with a spatial resolution of 7.5°long × 4.5°lat. Seven time slices have been simulated. We show that the breakup of the Pangea supercontinent triggers an increase in continental runoff, resulting in enhanced atmospheric CO2 consumption through silicate weathering. As a result, atmospheric CO2 falls from values above 3000 ppmv during the Triassic down to rather low levels during the Cretaceous (around 400 ppmv), resulting in a decrease in global mean annual continental temperatures from about 20°C to 10°C. Silicate weathering feedback and paleogeography both act to force the Earth system toward a dry and hot world reaching its optimum over the last 260 Myr during the Middle-Late Triassic. In the super continent case, given the persistent aridity, the model generates high CO2 values to produce very warm continental temperatures. Conversely, in the fragmented case, the runoff becomes the most important contributor to the silicate weathering rate, hence producing a CO2 drawdown and a fall in continental temperatures. Finally, another unexpected outcome is the pronounced fluctuation in carbonate accumulation simulated by the model in response to the Pangea breakup. These fluctuations are driven by changes in continental carbonate weathering flux. Accounting for the fluctuations in area available for carbonate platforms, the simulated ratio of carbonate deposition between neritic and deep sea environments is in better agreement with available data.

Modeling evapotranspiration based on plant hydraulic theory can predict spatial variability across an elevation gradient and link to biogeochemical fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackay, D. S.; Frank, J.; Reed, D.; Whitehouse, F.; Ewers, B. E.; Pendall, E.; Massman, W. J.; Sperry, J. S.

2012-04-01

In woody plant systems transpiration is often the dominant component of total evapotranspiration, and so it is key to understanding water and energy cycles. Moreover, transpiration is tightly coupled to carbon and nutrient fluxes, and so it is also vital to understanding spatial variability of biogeochemical fluxes. However, the spatial variability of transpiration and its links to biogeochemical fluxes, within- and among-ecosystems, has been a challenge to constrain because of complex feedbacks between physical and biological controls. Plant hydraulics provides an emerging theory with the rigor needed to develop testable hypotheses and build useful models for scaling these coupled fluxes from individual plants to regional scales. This theory predicts that vegetative controls over water, energy, carbon, and nutrient fluxes can be determined from the limitation of plant water transport through the soil-xylem-stomata pathway. Limits to plant water transport can be predicted from measurable plant structure and function (e.g., vulnerability to cavitation). We present a next-generation coupled transpiration-biogeochemistry model based on this emerging theory. The model, TREEScav, is capable of predicting transpiration, along with carbon and nutrient flows, constrained by plant structure and function. The model incorporates tightly coupled mechanisms of the demand and supply of water through the soil-xylem-stomata system, with the feedbacks to photosynthesis and utilizable carbohydrates. The model is evaluated by testing it against transpiration and carbon flux data along an elevation gradient of woody plants comprising sagebrush steppe, mid-elevation lodgepole pine forests, and subalpine spruce/fir forests in the Rocky Mountains. The model accurately predicts transpiration and carbon fluxes as measured from gas exchange, sap flux, and eddy covariance towers. The results of this work demonstrate that credible spatial predictions of transpiration and related biogeochemical fluxes will be possible at regional scales using relatively easily obtained vegetation structural and functional information.

Remote sensing of plant-water relations: An overview and future perspectives.

PubMed

Damm, A; Paul-Limoges, E; Haghighi, E; Simmer, C; Morsdorf, F; Schneider, F D; van der Tol, C; Migliavacca, M; Rascher, U

2018-04-25

Vegetation is a highly dynamic component of the Earth surface and substantially alters the water cycle. Particularly the process of oxygenic plant photosynthesis determines vegetation connecting the water and carbon cycle and causing various interactions and feedbacks across Earth spheres. While vegetation impacts the water cycle, it reacts to changing water availability via functional, biochemical and structural responses. Unravelling the resulting complex feedbacks and interactions between the plant-water system and environmental change is essential for any modelling approaches and predictions, but still insufficiently understood due to currently missing observations. We hypothesize that an appropriate cross-scale monitoring of plant-water relations can be achieved by combined observational and modelling approaches. This paper reviews suitable remote sensing approaches to assess plant-water relations ranging from pure observational to combined observational-modelling approaches. We use a combined energy balance and radiative transfer model to assess the explanatory power of pure observational approaches focussing on plant parameters to estimate plant-water relations, followed by an outline for a more effective use of remote sensing by their integration into soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (SPAC) models. We apply a mechanistic model simulating water movement in the SPAC to reveal insight into the complexity of relations between soil, plant and atmospheric parameters, and thus plant-water relations. We conclude that future research should focus on strategies combining observations and mechanistic modelling to advance our knowledge on the interplay between the plant-water system and environmental change, e.g. through plant transpiration. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Large Variations of Atmospheric 14C Associated With Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycles 10- 13

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weyhenmeyer, C. E.; Burns, S. J.; Fleitmann, D.; Mangini, A.; Matter, A.; Guilderson, T.; Reimer, P. J.

2006-12-01

A 1.7 m long stalagmite from Moomi Cave, Socotra Island in the Indian Ocean provides a continuous, high- resolution record of climate change between 53 and 41 kyr BP. In the northern high-latitude regions, this time period is characterized by several rapid climate change events, corresponding to Dansgaard-Oeschger (D/O) cycles 10-13. It has been suggested that these D/O cycles may be global events but high-resolution data from the low-latitude regions are scarce. As a result, the driving and feedback mechanisms of these rapid changes remain poorly understood. The presented stalagmite data of U/Th, stable isotopes (del 18O, del 13C) and radiocarbon (14C) provide unique information regarding the nature and timing of rapid climate changes in the tropics. A depth-age model for the Moomi Cave stalagmite was developed from 25 high-precision U/Th measurements, providing a solid chronology for this record. Oxygen isotope measurements of the stalagmite calcite reveal several large variations that are believed to reflect changes in the amount of precipitation, rather than temperature. A comparison to the Greenland Ice Core records shows a remarkable similarity to D/O cycles 10- 13 with warmer periods in the high-latitude regions being associated with increased precipitation in the tropics and vice versa. The stalagmite radiocarbon (14C) values from over 100 individual measurements reveal an almost identical cyclic pattern, tracing all four D/O cycles. Assuming no changes in the carbonate chemistry of the precipitating fluid, the radiocarbon values of the stalagmite calcite directly reflect changes in global atmospheric 14C concentrations. There are three possible explanations for these cyclic variations of 14C values: 1) changes in the carbonate chemistry of the drip water resulting in changes of the dead carbon fraction (DCF); 2) changes in the solar activity and/or Earth's magnetic field resulting in direct variations of atmospheric 14C concentrations; and 3) changes in the global ocean circulation resulting in varying amounts of 'dead' (14C-free) carbon being released into the atmosphere. We exclude the first scenario based on the fact that calcite del 13C values show very little variation throughout this record, thus excluding any significant changes in the carbonate chemistry and DCF. Based on model calculations and 10Be data from ice core records, we propose changes in the global ocean circulation as the primary mechanism for rapid changes in the atmospheric 14C reservoir.

How trees uptake carbon, release water and cool themselves in air: a marriage between biophysics and turbulent fluid dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerjee, Tirtha; Linn, Rodman

2017-11-01

Resolving the role of the biosphere as a terrestrial carbon sink and the nature of nonlinear couplings between carbon and water cycles across a very wide range of spatiotemporal scales constitute the scope of this work. To achieve this goal, plant physiology models are coupled with atmospheric turbulence simulations. The plant biophysics code is based on the following principles: (1) a model for photosynthesis; (2) a mass transfer model through the laminar boundary layer on leaves; (3) an optimal leaf water use strategy regulated by stomatal aperture variation; (4) a leaf-level energy balance to accommodate evaporative cooling. Leaf-level outputs are upscaled to plant, canopy and landscape scales using HIGRAD/FIRETEC, a high fidelity large eddy simulation (LES) framework developed at LANL. The coupled biophysics-CFD code can take inputs such as wind speed, light availability, ambient CO2 concentration, air temperature, site characteristics etc. and can deliver predictions for leaf temperature, transpiration, carbon assimilation, sensible and latent heat flux, which is used to illustrate the complex the complex interaction between trees and their surrounding environments. These simulation capabilities are being used to study climate feedbacks of forests and agroecosystems.

Understanding feedback report uptake: process evaluation findings from a 13-month feedback intervention in long-term care settings.

PubMed

Sales, Anne E; Fraser, Kimberly; Baylon, Melba Andrea B; O'Rourke, Hannah M; Gao, Gloria; Bucknall, Tracey; Maisey, Suzanne

2015-02-12

Long-term care settings provide care to a large proportion of predominantly older, highly disabled adults across the United States and Canada. Managing and improving quality of care is challenging, in part because staffing is highly dependent on relatively non-professional health care aides and resources are limited. Feedback interventions in these settings are relatively rare, and there has been little published information about the process of feedback intervention. Our objectives were to describe the key components of uptake of the feedback reports, as well as other indicators of participant response to the intervention. We conducted this project in nine long-term care units in four facilities in Edmonton, Canada. We used mixed methods, including observations during a 13-month feedback report intervention with nine post-feedback survey cycles, to conduct a process evaluation of a feedback report intervention in these units. We included all facility-based direct care providers (staff) in the feedback report distribution and survey administration. We conducted descriptive analyses of the data from observations and surveys, presenting this in tabular and graphic form. We constructed a short scale to measure uptake of the feedback reports. Our analysis evaluated feedback report uptake by provider type over the 13 months of the intervention. We received a total of 1,080 survey responses over the period of the intervention, which varied by type of provider, facility, and survey month. Total number of reports distributed ranged from 103 in cycle 12 to 229 in cycle 3, although the method of delivery varied widely across the period, from 12% to 65% delivered directly to individuals and 15% to 84% left for later distribution. The key elements of feedback uptake, including receiving, reading, understanding, discussing, and reporting a perception that the reports were useful, varied by survey cycle and provider type, as well as by facility. Uptake, as we measured it, was consistently high overall, but varied widely by provider type and time period. We report detailed process data describing the aspects of uptake of a feedback report during an intensive, longitudinal feedback intervention in long-term care facilities. Uptake is a complex process for which we used multiple measures. We demonstrate the feasibility of conducting a complex longitudinal feedback intervention in relatively resource-poor long-term care facilities to a wider range of provider types than have been included in prior feedback interventions.

Iterative LQG Controller Design Through Closed-Loop Identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsiao, Min-Hung; Huang, Jen-Kuang; Cox, David E.

1996-01-01

This paper presents an iterative Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) controller design approach for a linear stochastic system with an uncertain open-loop model and unknown noise statistics. This approach consists of closed-loop identification and controller redesign cycles. In each cycle, the closed-loop identification method is used to identify an open-loop model and a steady-state Kalman filter gain from closed-loop input/output test data obtained by using a feedback LQG controller designed from the previous cycle. Then the identified open-loop model is used to redesign the state feedback. The state feedback and the identified Kalman filter gain are used to form an updated LQC controller for the next cycle. This iterative process continues until the updated controller converges. The proposed controller design is demonstrated by numerical simulations and experiments on a highly unstable large-gap magnetic suspension system.

In Folio Respiratory Fluxomics Revealed by 13C Isotopic Labeling and H/D Isotope Effects Highlight the Noncyclic Nature of the Tricarboxylic Acid “Cycle” in Illuminated Leaves1[W

PubMed Central

Tcherkez, Guillaume; Mahé, Aline; Gauthier, Paul; Mauve, Caroline; Gout, Elizabeth; Bligny, Richard; Cornic, Gabriel; Hodges, Michael

2009-01-01

While the possible importance of the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle reactions for leaf photosynthesis operation has been recognized, many uncertainties remain on whether TCA cycle biochemistry is similar in the light compared with the dark. It is widely accepted that leaf day respiration and the metabolic commitment to TCA decarboxylation are down-regulated in illuminated leaves. However, the metabolic basis (i.e. the limiting steps involved in such a down-regulation) is not well known. Here, we investigated the in vivo metabolic fluxes of individual reactions of the TCA cycle by developing two isotopic methods, 13C tracing and fluxomics and the use of H/D isotope effects, with Xanthium strumarium leaves. We provide evidence that the TCA “cycle” does not work in the forward direction like a proper cycle but, rather, operates in both the reverse and forward directions to produce fumarate and glutamate, respectively. Such a functional division of the cycle plausibly reflects the compromise between two contrasted forces: (1) the feedback inhibition by NADH and ATP on TCA enzymes in the light, and (2) the need to provide pH-buffering organic acids and carbon skeletons for nitrate absorption and assimilation. PMID:19675152

Sulfur and Carbon Isotope Systematics in Middle-Upper Cambrian Port au Port Group From Western Newfoundland, Canada: Implications for Seawater Sulfate Concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurtgen, M. T.; Pruss, S.; Knoll, A. H.

2006-12-01

The biogeochemical cycles of carbon and sulfur are intimately linked through a variety of feedbacks that operate on timescales of days to millions of years. For example, under anaerobic conditions, some bacteria respire organic matter by sulfate reduction, reducing sulfate to sulfide, which then reacts with iron to form iron sulfide (preserved as pyrite). On much longer timescales, increases in the fraction of total carbon buried as organic carbon can drive increases in atmospheric oxygen concentrations which then facilitate an increase in the extent to which sulfides on land are oxidatively weathered and ultimately delivered to the oceans as sulfate via rivers. Interestingly, these two processes impose very different isotope relationships between the C isotope composition of marine dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and the S isotope composition of seawater sulfate. The former leads to a positive correlation between δ13Ccarbonate and δ34Ssulfate whereas the latter prescribes a long-term negative correlation. Of course, the recognition of either a positive or negative correlation between δ13Ccarbonate and δ34Ssulfate depends strongly on the relative sizes of the DIC and seawater sulfate reservoirs-- neither of which is well constrained for the Cambrian Period. Here, we present a high-resolution δ34S (sulfate and pyrite) and δ13Ccarbonate record from the mixed carbonate-siliciclastic Middle-Upper Cambrian Port au Port Group in western Newfoundland, Canada. The δ34Ssulfate profile displays systematic shifts of >15‰ over relatively short stratigraphic distances (10 m, likely to represent < 1 Myr). C isotope values shift sympathetically throughout much of the composite section; however, important deviations from this relationship exist. First, in the Middle Cambrian March Point Formation, a 15‰- δ34Ssulfate decrease precedes a 3‰-δ13Ccarbonate fall suggesting that the sulfur cycle recorded the perturbation to the system before the carbon cycle did. Secondly, further up in the section, the Upper Cambrian Man O' War Member exhibits a ~6‰ positive C isotope excursion (SPICE Event) with almost no change in S isotope values. In combination, these data suggest that seawater sulfate concentrations were much lower than modern values, at least in this basin, resulting in a sulfate reservoir that was more susceptible to isotopic variation. Moreover, differences in the relationship between C and S isotopes indicate that the relative sizes of the marine DIC and sulfate reservoir changed through this interval and/or that the various perturbations recorded in the lower and upper parts of this succession affected the carbon and sulfur cycles in different ways.

Increased nitrogen availability counteracts climatic change feedback from increased temperature on boreal forest soil organic matter degradation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erhagen, Bjorn; Nilsson, Mats; Oquist, Mats; Ilstedt, Ulrik; Sparrman, Tobias; Schleucher, Jurgen

2014-05-01

Over the last century, the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have increased dramatically, greatly exceeding pre-industrial levels that had prevailed for the preceding 420 000 years. At the same time the annual anthropogenic contribution to the global terrestrial nitrogen cycle has increased and currently exceeds natural inputs. Both temperature and nitrogen levels have profound effects on the global carbon cycle including the rate of organic matter decomposition, which is the most important biogeochemical process that returns CO2 to the atmosphere. Here we show for the first time that increasing the availability of nitrogen not only directly affects the rate of organic matter decomposition but also significantly affects its temperature dependence. We incubated litter and soil organic matter from a long-term (40 years) nitrogen fertilization experiment in a boreal Scots pine (Pinus silvestris L.) forest at different temperatures and determined the temperature dependence of the decomposition of the sample's organic matter in each case. Nitrogen fertilization did not affect the temperature sensitivity (Q10) of the decomposition of fresh plant litter but strongly reduced that for humus soil organic matter. The Q10 response of the 0-3 cm soil layer decreased from 2.5±0.35 to an average of 1.9±0.21 over all nitrogen treatments, and from 2.2±0.19 to 1.6±0.16 in response to the most intense nitrogen fertilization treatment in the 4-7 cm soil layer. Long-term nitrogen additions also significantly affected the organic chemical composition (as determined by 13C CP-MAS NMR spectroscopy) of the soil organic matter. These changes in chemical composition contributed significantly (p<0.05) to the reduced Q10 response. These new insights into the relationship between nitrogen availability and the temperature sensitivity of organic matter decomposition will be important for understanding and predicting how increases in global temperature and rising anthropogenic nitrogen inputs will affect the global carbon cycle and the associated climatic feedback processes.

Earth System Model Needs for Including the Interactive Representation of Nitrogen Deposition and Drought Effects on Forested Ecosystems

DOE PAGES

Drewniak, Beth; Gonzalez-Meler, Miquel

2017-07-27

One of the biggest uncertainties of climate change is determining the response of vegetation to many co-occurring stressors. In particular, many forests are experiencing increased nitrogen deposition and are expected to suffer in the future from increased drought frequency and intensity. Interactions between drought and nitrogen deposition are antagonistic and non-additive, which makes predictions of vegetation response dependent on multiple factors. The tools we use (Earth system models) to evaluate the impact of climate change on the carbon cycle are ill equipped to capture the physiological feedbacks and dynamic responses of ecosystems to these types of stressors. In this manuscript,more » we review the observed effects of nitrogen deposition and drought on vegetation as they relate to productivity, particularly focusing on carbon uptake and partitioning. We conclude there are several areas of model development that can improve the predicted carbon uptake under increasing nitrogen deposition and drought. This includes a more flexible framework for carbon and nitrogen partitioning, dynamic carbon allocation, better representation of root form and function, age and succession dynamics, competition, and plant modeling using trait-based approaches. These areas of model development have the potential to improve the forecasting ability and reduce the uncertainty of climate models.« less

Earth System Model Needs for Including the Interactive Representation of Nitrogen Deposition and Drought Effects on Forested Ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Drewniak, Beth; Gonzalez-Meler, Miquel

One of the biggest uncertainties of climate change is determining the response of vegetation to many co-occurring stressors. In particular, many forests are experiencing increased nitrogen deposition and are expected to suffer in the future from increased drought frequency and intensity. Interactions between drought and nitrogen deposition are antagonistic and non-additive, which makes predictions of vegetation response dependent on multiple factors. The tools we use (Earth system models) to evaluate the impact of climate change on the carbon cycle are ill equipped to capture the physiological feedbacks and dynamic responses of ecosystems to these types of stressors. In this manuscript,more » we review the observed effects of nitrogen deposition and drought on vegetation as they relate to productivity, particularly focusing on carbon uptake and partitioning. We conclude there are several areas of model development that can improve the predicted carbon uptake under increasing nitrogen deposition and drought. This includes a more flexible framework for carbon and nitrogen partitioning, dynamic carbon allocation, better representation of root form and function, age and succession dynamics, competition, and plant modeling using trait-based approaches. These areas of model development have the potential to improve the forecasting ability and reduce the uncertainty of climate models.« less

Reversible control of biofilm formation by Cellulomonas spp. in response to nitrogen availability.

PubMed

Young, Jenna M; Leschine, Susan B; Reguera, Gemma

2012-03-01

The microbial degradation of cellulose contributes greatly to the cycling of carbon in terrestrial environments and feedbacks to the atmosphere, a process that is highly responsive to nitrogen inputs. Yet how key groups of cellulolytic microorganisms adaptively respond to the global conditions of nitrogen limitation and/or anthropogenic or climate nitrogen inputs is poorly understood. The actinobacterial genus Cellulomonas is of special interest because it incorporates the only species known to degrade cellulose aerobically and anaerobically. Furthermore, despite their inability to fix nitrogen, they are active decomposers in nitrogen-limited environments. Here we show that nitrogen limitation induced biofilm formation in Cellulomonas spp., a process that was coupled to carbon sequestration and storage in a curdlan-type biofilm matrix. The response was reversible and the curdlan matrix was solubilized and used as a carbon and energy source for biofilm dispersal once nitrogen sources became available. The biofilms attached strongly to cellulosic surfaces and, despite the growth limitation, produced cellulases and degraded cellulose more efficiently. The results show that biofilm formation is a competitive strategy for carbon and nitrogen acquisition and provide valuable insights linking nitrogen inputs to carbon sequestration and remobilization in terrestrial environments. © 2011 Society for Applied Microbiology and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Metaproteomics reveals differential modes of metabolic coupling among ubiquitous oxygen minimum zone microbes

PubMed Central

Hawley, Alyse K.; Brewer, Heather M.; Norbeck, Angela D.; Paša-Tolić, Ljiljana; Hallam, Steven J.

2014-01-01

Marine oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are intrinsic water column features arising from respiratory oxygen demand during organic matter degradation in stratified waters. Currently OMZs are expanding due to global climate change with resulting feedback on marine ecosystem function. Here we use metaproteomics to chart spatial and temporal patterns of gene expression along defined redox gradients in a seasonally stratified fjord to better understand microbial community responses to OMZ expansion. The expression of metabolic pathway components for nitrification, anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox), denitrification, and inorganic carbon fixation were differentially expressed across the redoxcline and covaried with distribution patterns of ubiquitous OMZ microbes including Thaumarchaeota, Nitrospina, Nitrospira, Planctomycetes, and SUP05/ARCTIC96BD-19 Gammaproteobacteria. Nitrification and inorganic carbon fixation pathways affiliated with Thaumarchaeota dominated dysoxic waters, and denitrification, sulfur oxidation, and inorganic carbon fixation pathways affiliated with the SUP05 group of nitrate-reducing sulfur oxidizers dominated suboxic and anoxic waters. Nitrifier nitrite oxidation and anammox pathways affiliated with Nirospina, Nitrospira, and Planctomycetes, respectively, also exhibited redox partitioning between dysoxic and suboxic waters. The numerical abundance of SUP05 proteins mediating inorganic carbon fixation under anoxic conditions suggests that SUP05 will become increasingly important in global ocean carbon and nutrient cycling as OMZs expand. PMID:25053816

Metaproteomics reveals differential modes of metabolic coupling among ubiquitous oxygen minimum zone microbes.

PubMed

Hawley, Alyse K; Brewer, Heather M; Norbeck, Angela D; Paša-Tolić, Ljiljana; Hallam, Steven J

2014-08-05

Marine oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are intrinsic water column features arising from respiratory oxygen demand during organic matter degradation in stratified waters. Currently OMZs are expanding due to global climate change with resulting feedback on marine ecosystem function. Here we use metaproteomics to chart spatial and temporal patterns of gene expression along defined redox gradients in a seasonally stratified fjord to better understand microbial community responses to OMZ expansion. The expression of metabolic pathway components for nitrification, anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox), denitrification, and inorganic carbon fixation were differentially expressed across the redoxcline and covaried with distribution patterns of ubiquitous OMZ microbes including Thaumarchaeota, Nitrospina, Nitrospira, Planctomycetes, and SUP05/ARCTIC96BD-19 Gammaproteobacteria. Nitrification and inorganic carbon fixation pathways affiliated with Thaumarchaeota dominated dysoxic waters, and denitrification, sulfur oxidation, and inorganic carbon fixation pathways affiliated with the SUP05 group of nitrate-reducing sulfur oxidizers dominated suboxic and anoxic waters. Nitrifier nitrite oxidation and anammox pathways affiliated with Nirospina, Nitrospira, and Planctomycetes, respectively, also exhibited redox partitioning between dysoxic and suboxic waters. The numerical abundance of SUP05 proteins mediating inorganic carbon fixation under anoxic conditions suggests that SUP05 will become increasingly important in global ocean carbon and nutrient cycling as OMZs expand.

Vegetation-climate feedback causes reduced precipitation and tropical rainforest cover in CMIP5 regional Earth system model simulation over Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, M.; Smith, B.; Samuelsson, P.; Rummukainen, M.; Schurgers, G.

2012-12-01

We applied a coupled regional climate-vegetation model, RCA-GUESS (Smith et al. 2011), over the CORDEX Africa domain, forced by boundary conditions from a CanESM2 CMIP5 simulation under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The simulations were from 1961 to 2100 and covered the African continent at a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. RCA-GUESS simulates changes in the phenology, productivity, relative cover and population structure of up to eight plant function types (PFTs) in response to forcing from the climate part of the model. These vegetation changes feed back to simulated climate through dynamic adjustments in surface energy fluxes and surface properties. Changes in the net ecosystem-atmosphere carbon flux and its components net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration and emissions from biomass burning were also simulated but do not feed back to climate in our model. Constant land cover was assumed. We compared simulations with and without vegetation feedback switched "on" to assess the influence of vegetation-climate feedback on simulated climate, vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling. Both positive and negative warming feedbacks were identified in different parts of Africa. In the Sahel savannah zone near 15°N, reduced vegetation cover and productivity, and mortality caused by a deterioration of soil water conditions led to a positive warming feedback mediated by decreased evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat flux between vegetation and the atmosphere. In the equatorial rainforest stronghold region of central Africa, a feedback syndrome characterised by reduced plant production and LAI, a dominance shift from tropical trees to grasses, reduced soil water and reduced rainfall was identified. The likely underlying mechanism was a decline in evaporative water recycling associated with sparser vegetation cover, reminiscent of Earth system model studies in which a similar feedback mechanism was simulated to force dieback of tropical rainforest and reduced precipitation over the Amazon Basin (Cox et al. 2000; Betts et al. 2004; Malhi et al. 2009). Opposite effects are seen in southern Senegal, southern Mali, northern Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, positive evapotranspiration feedback enhancing the cover of trees in forest and savannah, mitigating warming and promoting local moisture recycling as rainfall. Our study, the first application of a coupled Earth system model at regional scale and resolution over Africa, reveals that vegetation-climate feedbacks may significantly impact the magnitude and character of simulated changes in climate as well as vegetation and ecosystems in future scenario studies of this region. They should be accounted for in future studies of climate change and its impacts on Africa.

Fire, climate change, and forest resilience in interior Alaska

Treesearch

Jill F. Johnstone; F. Stuart Chapin; Teresa N. Hollingsworth; Michelle C. Mack; Vladimir Romanovsky; Merritt Turetsky

2010-01-01

In the boreal forests of interior Alaska, feedbacks that link forest soils, fire characteristics, and plant traits have supported stable cycles of forest succession for the past 6000 years. This high resilience of forest stands to fire disturbance is supported by two interrelated feedback cycles: (i) interactions among disturbance regime and plant-soil-microbial...

Seismic cycle feedbacks in a mid-crustal shear zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melosh, Benjamin L.; Rowe, Christie D.; Gerbi, Christopher; Smit, Louis; Macey, Paul

2018-07-01

Mid-crustal fault rheology is controlled by alternating brittle and plastic deformation mechanisms, which cause feedback cycles that influence earthquake behavior. Detailed mapping and microstructural observations in the Pofadder Shear Zone (Namibia and South Africa) reveal a lithologically heterogeneous shear zone core with quartz-rich mylonites and ultramylonites, plastically overprinted pseudotachylyte and active shear folds. We present evidence for a positive feedback cycle in which coseismic grain size reduction facilitates active shear folding by enhancing competency contrasts and promoting crystal plastic flow. Shear folding strengthens a portion of a shear zone by limb rotation, focusing deformation and promoting plastic flow or brittle slip in resulting areas of localized high stress. Using quartz paleopiezometry, we estimate strain and slip rates consistent with other studies of exhumed shear zones and modern plate boundary faults, helping establish the Pofadder Shear Zone as an ancient analogue to modern, continental-scale, strike-slip faults. This feedback cycle influences seismicity patterns at the scale of study (10s of meters) and possibly larger scales as well, and contributes to bulk strengthening of the brittle-plastic transition on modern plate boundary faults.

Assessing the Role of Seafloor Weathering in Global Geochemical Cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahat, N. X.; Abbot, D. S.; Archer, D. E.

2015-12-01

Low-temperature alteration of the basaltic upper oceanic crust, known as seafloor weathering, has been proposed as a mechanism for long-term climate regulation similar to the continental climate-weathering negative feedback. Despite this potentially far-reaching impact of seafloor weathering on habitable planet evolution, existing modeling frameworks do not include the full scope of alteration reactions or recent findings of convective flow dynamics. We present a coupled fluid dynamic and geochemical numerical model of low-temperature, off-axis hydrothermal activity. This model is designed to explore the the seafloor weathering flux of carbon to the oceanic crust and its responsiveness to climate fluctuations. The model's ability to reproduce the seafloor weathering environment is evaluated by constructing numerical simulations for comparison with two low-temperature hydrothermal systems: A transect east of the Juan de Fuca Ridge and the southern Costa Rica Rift flank. We explore the sensitivity of carbon uptake by seafloor weathering on climate and geology by varying deep ocean temperature, seawater dissolved inorganic carbon, continental weathering inputs, and basaltic host rock in a suite of numerical experiments.

Habitability from Tidally Induced Tectonics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valencia, Diana; Tan, Vivian Yun Yan; Zajac, Zachary

2018-04-01

The stability of Earth’s climate on geological timescales is enabled by the carbon–silicate cycle that acts as a negative feedback mechanism stabilizing surface temperatures via the intake and outgassing of atmospheric carbon. On Earth, this thermostat is enabled by plate tectonics that sequesters outgassed CO2 back into the mantle via weathering and subduction at convergent margins. Here we propose a separate tectonic mechanism—vertical recycling—that can serve as the vehicle for CO2 outgassing and sequestration over long timescales. The mechanism requires continuous tidal heating, which makes it particularly relevant to planets in the habitable zone of M stars. Dynamical models of this vertical recycling scenario and stability analysis show that temperate climates stable over timescales of billions of years are realized for a variety of initial conditions, even as the M star dims over time. The magnitude of equilibrium surface temperatures depends on the interplay of sea weathering and outgassing, which in turn depends on planetary carbon content, so that planets with lower carbon budgets are favored for temperate conditions. The habitability of planets such as found in the Trappist-1 system may be rooted in tidally driven tectonics.

Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

PubMed Central

Zeebe, Richard E.

2013-01-01

Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth’s surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth’s climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000–165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum. PMID:23918402

Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

PubMed

Zeebe, Richard E

2013-08-20

Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth's surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth's climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000-165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

Spatially explicit simulation of hydrologically controlled carbon and nitrogen cycles and associated feedback mechanisms in a boreal ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govind, Ajit; Chen, Jing Ming; Ju, Weimin

2009-06-01

Ecosystem models that simulate biogeochemical processes usually ignore hydrological controls that govern them. It is quite possible that topographically driven water fluxes significantly influence the spatial distribution of C sources and sinks because of their large contribution to the local water balance. To investigate this, we simulated biogeochemical processes along with the associated feedback mechanisms in a boreal ecosystem using a spatially explicit hydroecological model, boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS)-TerrainLab V2.0, that has a tight coupling of ecophysiological, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes. First, the simulated dynamics of snowpack, soil temperature, net ecosystem productivity (NEP), and total ecosystem respiration (TER) were validated with high-frequency measurements for 2 years. The model was able to explain 80% of the variability in NEP and 84% of the variability in TER. Further, we investigated the influence of topographically driven subsurface base flow on soil C and N cycling and on the spatiotemporal patterns of C sources and sinks using three hydrological modeling scenarios that differed in hydrological conceptualizations. In general, the scenarios that had nonexplicit hydrological representation overestimated NEP, as opposed to the scenario that had an explicit (realistic) representation. The key processes controlling the NEP differences were attributed to the combined effects of variations in photosynthesis (due to changes in stomatal conductance and nitrogen (N) availability), heterotrophic respiration, and autotrophic respiration, all of which occur simultaneously affecting NEP. Feedback relationships were also found to exacerbate the differences. We identified six types of NEP differences (biases), of which the most commonly found was due to an underestimation of the existing C sources, highlighting the vulnerability of regional-scale ecosystem models that ignore hydrological processes.

Global change modeling for Northern Eurasia: a review and strategies to move forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Sokolov, A. P.; Zhuang, Q.; Sokolik, I. N.; Lawford, R. G.; Kappas, M.; Paltsev, S.; Groisman, P. Y.

2017-12-01

Northern Eurasia is made up of a complex and diverse set of physical, ecological, climatic and human systems, which provide important ecosystem services including the storage of substantial stocks of carbon in its terrestrial ecosystems. At the same time, the region has experienced dramatic climate change, natural disturbances and changes in land management practices over the past century. For these reasons, Northern Eurasia is both a critical region to understand and a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. This review is designed to highlight the state of past and ongoing efforts of the research community to understand and model these environmental, socioeconomic, and climatic changes. We further aim to provide perspectives on the future direction of global change modeling to improve our understanding of the role of Northern Eurasia in the coupled human-Earth system. Modeling efforts have shown that environmental and socioeconomic changes in Northern Eurasia can have major impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems services, environmental sustainability, and the carbon cycle of the region, and beyond. These impacts have the potential to feedback onto and alter the global Earth system. We find that past and ongoing studies have largely focused on specific components of Earth system dynamics and have not systematically examined their feedbacks to the global Earth system and to society. We identify the crucial role of Earth system models in advancing our understanding of feedbacks within the region and with the global system. We further argue for the need for integrated assessment models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth system models, which are key to address many emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled human-Earth system.

A review of and perspectives on global change modeling for Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, Erwan; Kicklighter, David W.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Zhuang, Qianlai; Sokolik, Irina N.; Lawford, Richard; Kappas, Martin; Paltsev, Sergey V.; Groisman, Pavel Ya

2017-08-01

Northern Eurasia is made up of a complex and diverse set of physical, ecological, climatic and human systems, which provide important ecosystem services including the storage of substantial stocks of carbon in its terrestrial ecosystems. At the same time, the region has experienced dramatic climate change, natural disturbances and changes in land management practices over the past century. For these reasons, Northern Eurasia is both a critical region to understand and a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. This review is designed to highlight the state of past and ongoing efforts of the research community to understand and model these environmental, socioeconomic, and climatic changes. We further aim to provide perspectives on the future direction of global change modeling to improve our understanding of the role of Northern Eurasia in the coupled human-Earth system. Modeling efforts have shown that environmental and socioeconomic changes in Northern Eurasia can have major impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems services, environmental sustainability, and the carbon cycle of the region, and beyond. These impacts have the potential to feedback onto and alter the global Earth system. We find that past and ongoing studies have largely focused on specific components of Earth system dynamics and have not systematically examined their feedbacks to the global Earth system and to society. We identify the crucial role of Earth system models in advancing our understanding of feedbacks within the region and with the global system. We further argue for the need for integrated assessment models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth system models, which are key to address many emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled human-Earth system.

The effect of anthropogenic emissions corrections on the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M; Erickson III, David J; Blasing, T J

A previous study (Erickson et al. 2008) approximated the monthly global emission estimates of anthropogenic CO{sub 2} by applying a 2-harmonic Fourier expansion with coefficients as a function of latitude to annual CO{sub 2} flux estimates derived from United States data (Blasing et al. 2005) that were extrapolated globally. These monthly anthropogenic CO{sub 2} flux estimates were used to model atmospheric concentrations using the NASA GEOS-4 data assimilation system. Local variability in the amplitude of the simulated CO{sub 2} seasonal cycle were found to be on the order of 2-6 ppmv. Here we used the same Fourier expansion to seasonallymore » adjust the global annual fossil fuel CO{sub 2} emissions from the SRES A2 scenario. For a total of four simulations, both the annual and seasonalized fluxes were advected in two configurations of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) used in the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP). One configuration used the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM) coupled with the CASA (carbon only) biogeochemistry model and the other used CLM coupled with the CN (coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles) biogeochemistry model. All four simulations were forced with observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations from the Hadley Centre and a prescribed transient atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration for the radiation and land forcing over the 20th century. The model results exhibit differences in the seasonal cycle of CO{sub 2} between the seasonally corrected and uncorrected simulations. Moreover, because of differing energy and water feedbacks between the atmosphere model and the two land biogeochemistry models, features of the CO{sub 2} seasonal cycle were different between these two model configurations. This study reinforces previous findings that suggest that regional near-surface atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations depend strongly on the natural sources and sinks of CO{sub 2}, but also on the strength of local anthropogenic CO{sub 2} emissions and geographic position. This work further attests to the need for remotely sensed CO{sub 2} observations from space.« less

Revisiting drought impact on tree mortality and carbon fluxes in ORCHIDEE-CAN DGVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joetzjer, E.; Bartlett, M. K.; Sack, L.; Poulter, B.; Ciais, P.

2016-12-01

In the past decade, two extreme droughts in the Amazon rainforest led to a perturbation of carbon cycle dynamics and forest structure, partly through an increase in tree mortality. While there is a relatively strong consensus in CMIP5 projections for an increase in both frequency and intensity of droughts across the Amazon, the potential for forest die-off constitutes a large uncertainty in projections of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and carbon cycle feedbacks. Two long-term through fall exclusion experiments (TFE) provided novel observations of Amazonian ecosystem responses under drought. These experiments also provided a great opportunity to evaluate and improve models' behavior under drought. While current DGVMs use a wide array of algorithms to represent drought effect on ecosystem, most are associated with large uncertainty for representing drought-induced mortality, and require updating to include current information of physiological processes. During very strong droughts, the leaves desiccate and stems may undergo catastrophic embolism. However, even before that point, stomata close, to minimize excessive water loss and risk of hydraulic failure, which reduces carbon assimilation. Here, we describe a new parameterization of the stomatal conductance and mortality processes induced by drought using the ORCHIDEE-CAN dynamic vegetation model and test it using the two TFE results. We implemented a direct climate effect on mortality through catastrophic stem embolism using a new hydraulic architecture to represent the hydraulic potential gradient from the soil to the leaves based on vulnerability curves, and tree capacitance. In addition, growth primary productivity and transpiration are down-regulated by the hydraulic architecture in case of drought through stomatal conductance, which depends on the hydraulic potential of the leaf. We also explored the role of non structural carbohydrates (NSC) on hydraulic failure and mortality following the idea that stored NSC serves a critical osmotic function. Our results suggest that models have the capacity to represent drought induced individual mortality from a mechanistic perspective allowing a better understanding of the drought impacts on carbon cycle and forest structure in the tropics.

Teaching About CO2 as a Climate Regulator During the Phanerozoic and Today

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St John, K. K.; Krissek, L. A.; Jones, M. H.; Leckie, R. M.; Pound, K. S.

2010-12-01

As part of the NSF-funded CCLI Type 1 project “Building Core Knowledge - Reconstructing Earth History”, this new four-part student-active learning exercise explores how the exchange of carbon into and out of the atmosphere is a primary factor in regulating climate over timescales of years to millions of years. In Part 1, students make initial observations about the short term global carbon cycle, its reservoirs, and the rates of carbon transfer from one reservoir to another. In Part 2, students investigate how CO2 directly and indirectly affects temperature. This understanding is developed though quantitative analysis of the changes in radiative forcing of CO2 and other factors (e.g., land surface albedo) between 1750 and 2005 based on IPCC climate models, and by constructing qualitative logic scenarios of positive and negative feedbacks in Earth’s climate system. In Part 3, students examine instrumental and ice core records of atmospheric CO2 levels, and identify which parts of the carbon cycle are most important at regulating climate over historical time periods. In Part 4, students, investigate the long-term global carbon cycle, CO2, and Phanerozoic climate history. Using proxy data and general circulation model results they identify Greenhouse and Icehouse times, and place modern climate change in a geologic context. The exercise set is designed for use in introductory undergraduate geoscience classes, either as a series of separate 30 to 60-minute in-class activities, as a single concentrated lab activity, or as homework assignments. In addition to developing content knowledge about CO2 as a climate regulator during the Phanerozoic and today, students also develop and practice their skills in making observations, interpreting data from graphs and tables, performing calculations, differentiating and making connections between processes and results, identifying scientific uncertainties, and communicating scientific results. This exercise set is currently being classroom tested, and is part of a larger undergraduate curriculum called “Building Core Knowledge - Reconstructing Earth History”, which uses authentic data to teach anchor concepts of climate change through sediment core archives (NSF Grant # 0737335).

Orbitally-Induced, Quasi-Periodic Climate Change on Mars: Modelling Changes in the Global Cycling of Water and Carbon Dioxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mischna, M. A.; Richardson, M. I.; Wilson, R. J.

2002-12-01

Mars' orbital parameters (obliquity, eccentricity and argument of perihelion) are thought to have varied substantially on time scales >105 years. Such variations, especially in obliquity, may drastically affect the circulation of the atmosphere and volatile cycling. In this study, we focus on the response of the water and carbon dioxide cycles to changes in these orbital parameters, chiefly obliquity. The study employs the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Mars General Circulation Model, conducting simulations over a range of orbital states to examine changes in the cycling and deposition of these volatiles. This model contains full 3D accounting of atmospheric water and carbon dioxide as well as a basic dust cycle. The present martian obliquity is 25°, though it is believed to have recently varied between 15 and 45 degrees. Our simulations look at present martian conditions, only with obliquity varying between 5 and 60 degrees. Simulations are run out until water and carbon dioxide budgets have reached equilibrium--typically 30-40 years. As expected, volatile cycling on Mars increases with obliquity, as the polar caps are exposed to increased insolation, leading to greater seasonal ice caps and ultimately development of surface water ice in the now thermally favorible low latitudes. By 45°, water ice is stable in a broad band just north of the equator. Such an ice distribution has potential implications for the surface wind pattern through the ice-albedo effect on surface heating. Permanent polar CO2 caps are not stable under present conditions, but we find CO2 cap growth and corresponding atmospheric deflation to be evident at very low obliquities. We find that for most choices of orbital conditions, the northern hemisphere remains the stable pole for water ice, a result of the martian topographic dichotomy. We have begun to look at the impact of desorbed CO2 and H2O ice from the regolith on climatic conditions. Present estimates of the volatile abundance in the regolith vary greatly, but recent Mars Odyssey results hint at large abundances of water ice in the martian high-latitude regolith. The results of this study should better define models of polar volatile evolution, specifically those of layered terrain formation. The radiative feedback effects of increased atmospheric CO2 and H2O from the polar caps and regoliths has yet to be examined. Future plans include more accurate representations of dust injection and radiative transfer to tackle this problem.

Method and apparatus for large motor control

DOEpatents

Rose, Chris R [Santa Fe, NM; Nelson, Ronald O [White Rock, NM

2003-08-12

Apparatus and method for providing digital signal processing method for controlling the speed and phase of a motor involves inputting a reference signal having a frequency and relative phase indicative of a time based signal; modifying the reference signal to introduce a slew-rate limited portion of each cycle of the reference signal; inputting a feedback signal having a frequency and relative phase indicative of the operation of said motor; modifying the feedback signal to introduce a slew-rate limited portion of each cycle of the feedback signal; analyzing the modified reference signal and the modified feedback signal to determine the frequency of the modified reference signal and of the modified feedback signal and said relative phase between said modified reference signal and said modified feedback signal; and outputting control signals to the motor for adjusting said speed and phase of the motor based on the frequency determination and determination of the relative phase.

Projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed physics ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDougall, A. H.; Knutti, R.

2015-12-01

The soils of the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region are estimated to contain 1100 to 1500 Pg of carbon (Pg C). A substantial fraction of this carbon has been frozen and therefore protected from microbial decay for millennia. As anthropogenic climate warming progresses much of this permafrost is expected to thaw. Here we conduct perturbed physics experiments on a climate model of intermediate complexity, with an improved permafrost carbon module, to estimate with formal uncertainty bounds the release of carbon from permafrost soils by year 2100 and 2300. We estimate that by 2100 the permafrost region may release between 56 (13 to 118) Pg C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 102 (27 to 199) Pg C under RCP 8.5, with substantially more to be released under each scenario by year 2300. A subset of 25 model variants were projected 8000 years into the future under continued RCP 4.5 and 8.5 forcing. Under the high forcing scenario the permafrost carbon pool decays away over several thousand years. Under the moderate scenario forcing a remnant near-surface permafrost region persists in the high Arctic which develops a large permafrost carbon pool, leading to global recovery of the pool beginning in mid third millennium of the common era (CE). Overall our simulations suggest that the permafrost carbon cycle feedback to climate change will make a significant but not cataclysmic contribution to climate change over the next centuries and millennia.

Projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed physics ensemble modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDougall, Andrew; Knutti, Reto

2016-04-01

The soils of the northern hemisphere permafrost region are estimated to contain 1100 to 1500 Pg of carbon. A substantial fraction of this carbon has been frozen and therefore protected from microbial decay for millennia. As anthropogenic climate warming progresses permafrost soils are expected to thaw. Here we conduct perturbed physics experiments on a climate model of intermediate complexity, with an improved permafrost carbon module, to estimate with formal uncertainty bounds the release of carbon from permafrost soils by year 2100 and 2300. We estimate that by year 2100 the permafrost region may release between 56 (13 to 118)Pg C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 102 (27 to 199) Pg C under RCP 8.5, with substantially more to be released under each scenario by 2300. A subset of 25 model variants is projected 8000 years into the future under continued RCP 4.5 and 8.5 forcing. Under the high forcing scenario the permafrost carbon pool decays away over several thousand years. Under the moderate forcing scenario a remnant near-surface permafrost region persists in the High-Arctic, which develops a large permafrost carbon pool, leading to a global recovery of the pool beginning in mid third millennium of the common era. Overall our simulations suggest that the permafrost carbon cycle feedback to climate change will make a significant but not cataclysmic contribution to climate change over the next centuries and millennia.

Shifting carbon flow from roots into associated microbial communities in response to elevated atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Drigo, Barbara; Pijl, Agata S; Duyts, Henk; Kielak, Anna M; Gamper, Hannes A; Houtekamer, Marco J; Boschker, Henricus T S; Bodelier, Paul L E; Whiteley, Andrew S; van Veen, Johannes A; Kowalchuk, George A

2010-06-15

Rising atmospheric CO(2) levels are predicted to have major consequences on carbon cycling and the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Increased photosynthetic activity is expected, especially for C-3 plants, thereby influencing vegetation dynamics; however, little is known about the path of fixed carbon into soil-borne communities and resulting feedbacks on ecosystem function. Here, we examine how arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) act as a major conduit in the transfer of carbon between plants and soil and how elevated atmospheric CO(2) modulates the belowground translocation pathway of plant-fixed carbon. Shifts in active AMF species under elevated atmospheric CO(2) conditions are coupled to changes within active rhizosphere bacterial and fungal communities. Thus, as opposed to simply increasing the activity of soil-borne microbes through enhanced rhizodeposition, elevated atmospheric CO(2) clearly evokes the emergence of distinct opportunistic plant-associated microbial communities. Analyses involving RNA-based stable isotope probing, neutral/phosphate lipid fatty acids stable isotope probing, community fingerprinting, and real-time PCR allowed us to trace plant-fixed carbon to the affected soil-borne microorganisms. Based on our data, we present a conceptual model in which plant-assimilated carbon is rapidly transferred to AMF, followed by a slower release from AMF to the bacterial and fungal populations well-adapted to the prevailing (myco-)rhizosphere conditions. This model provides a general framework for reappraising carbon-flow paths in soils, facilitating predictions of future interactions between rising atmospheric CO(2) concentrations and terrestrial ecosystems.

Derivation of a northern-hemispheric biomass map for use in global carbon cycle models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thurner, Martin; Beer, Christian; Santoro, Maurizio; Carvalhais, Nuno; Wutzler, Thomas; Schepaschenko, Dmitry; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Kompter, Elisabeth; Levick, Shaun; Schmullius, Christiane

2013-04-01

Quantifying the state and the change of the World's forests is crucial because of their ecological, social and economic value. Concerning their ecological importance, forests provide important feedbacks on the global carbon, energy and water cycles. In addition to their influence on albedo and evapotranspiration, they have the potential to sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide and thus to mitigate global warming. The current state and inter-annual variability of forest carbon stocks remain relatively unexplored, but remote sensing can serve to overcome this shortcoming. While for the tropics wall-to-wall estimates of above-ground biomass have been recently published, up to now there was a lack of similar products covering boreal and temperate forests. Recently, estimates of forest growing stock volume (GSV) were derived from ENVISAT ASAR C-band data for latitudes above 30° N. Utilizing a wood density and a biomass compartment database, a forest carbon density map covering North-America, Europe and Asia with 0.01° resolution could be derived out of this dataset. Allometric functions between stem, branches, root and foliage biomass were fitted and applied for different leaf types (broadleaf, needleleaf deciduous, needleleaf evergreen forest). Additionally, this method enabled uncertainty estimation of the resulting carbon density map. Intercomparisons with inventory-based biomass products in Russia, Europe and the USA proved the high accuracy of this approach at a regional scale (r2 = 0.70 - 0.90). Based on the final biomass map, the forest carbon stocks and densities (excluding understorey vegetation) for three biomes were estimated across three continents. While 40.7 ± 15.7 Gt of carbon were found to be stored in boreal forests, temperate broadleaf/mixed forests and temperate conifer forests contain 24.5 ± 9.4 Gt(C) and 14.5 ± 4.8 Gt(C), respectively. In terms of carbon density, most of the carbon per area is stored in temperate conifer (62.1 ± 20.7 Mg(C)/ha(Forest)) and broadleaf/mixed forests (58.0 ± 22.1 Mg(C)/ha(Forest)), whereas boreal forests have a carbon density of only 40.0 ± 15.4 Mg(C)/ha(Forest). While European forest carbon stocks are relatively small, the carbon density is higher compared to the other continents. The derived biomass map substantially improves the knowledge on the current carbon stocks of the northern-hemispheric boreal and temperate forests, serving as a new benchmark for spatially explicit and consistent biomass mapping with moderate spatial resolution. This product can be of great value for global carbon cycle models as well as national carbon monitoring systems. Further investigations concentrate on improving biomass parameterizations and representations in such kind of models. The presented map will help to improve the simulation of biomass spatial patterns and variability and enables identifying the dominant influential factors like climatic conditions and disturbances.

Integrated model-experimental framework to assess carbon cycle components in disturbed mountainous terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenzel, J.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Berardi, D.; McNellis, B.; Walsh, E.

2017-12-01

In forests vulnerable to drought and fire, there is critical need for in situ carbon and water balance measurements that can be integrated with earth system modeling to predict climate feedbacks. Model development can be improved by measurements that inform a mechanistic understanding of the component fluxes of net carbon uptake (i.e., NPP, autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration) and water use, with specific focus on responses to climate and disturbance. By integrating novel field-based instrumental technology, existing datasets, and state-of-the-art earth system modeling, we are attempting to 1) quantify the spatial and temporal impacts of forest thinning on regional biogeochemical cycling and climate 2) evaluate the impact of forest thinning on forest resilience to drought and disturbance in the Northern Rockies ecoregion. The combined model-experimental framework enables hypothesis testing that would otherwise be impossible because the use of new in situ high temporal resolution field technology allows for research in remote and mountainous terrains that have been excluded from eddy-covariance techniques. Our preliminary work has revealed some underlying difficulties with the new instrumentation that has led to new ideas and modified methods to correctly measure the component fluxes. Our observations of C balance following the thinning operations indicate that the recovery period (source to sink) is longer than hypothesized. Finally, we have incorporated a new plant functional type parameterization for Northern Rocky mixed-conifer into our simulation modeling using regional and site observations.

Climatic and biotic drivers of tropical evergreen forest photosynthesis: integrating field, eddy flux, remote sensing and modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; Serbin, S.; Xu, X.; Guan, K.; Albert, L.; Hayek, M.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Lopes, A. P.; Wiedemann, K. T.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Meng, R.; De Araujo, A. C.; Oliveira Junior, R. C.; Camargo, P. B. D.; Silva, R. D.; Nelson, B. W.; Huete, A. R.; Rogers, A.; Saleska, S. R.

2016-12-01

Tropical evergreen forest photosynthetic metabolism is an important driver of large-scale carbon, water, and energy cycles, generating various climate feedbacks. However, considerable uncertainties remain regarding how best to represent evergreen forest photosynthesis in current terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), especially its sensitivity to climatic vs. biotic variation. Here, we develop a new approach to partition climatic and biotic controls on tropical forest photosynthesis from hourly to inter-annual timescales. Our results show that climatic factors dominate photosynthesis dynamics at shorter-time scale (i.e. hourly), while biotic factors dominate longer-timescale (i.e. monthly and longer) photosynthetic dynamics. Focusing on seasonal timescales, we combine camera and ecosystem carbon flux observations of forests across a rainfall gradient in Amazonia to show that high dry season leaf turnover shifts canopy composition towards younger more efficient leaves. This seasonal variation in leaf quality (per-area leaf photosynthetic capacity) thus can explain the high photosynthetic seasonality observed in the tropics. Finally, we evaluated the performance of models with different phenological schemes (i.e. leaf quantity versus leaf quality; with and without leaf phenological variation alone the vertical canopy profile). We found that models which represented the phenology of leaf quality and its within-canopy variation performed best in simulating photosynthetic seasonality in tropical evergreen forests. This work highlights the importance of incorporating improved understanding of climatic and biotic controls in next generation TBMs to project future carbon and water cycles in the tropics.

Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schuur, E.A.G.; McGuire, A. David; Schädel, C.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J.W.; Hayes, D.J.; Hugelius, G.; Koven, C.D.; Kuhry, P.; Lawrence, D.M.; Natali, Susan M.; Olefeldt, David; Romanovsky, V.E.; Schaefer, K.; Turetsky, M.R.; Treat, C.C.; Vonk, J.E.

2015-01-01

Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.

Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback.

PubMed

Schuur, E A G; McGuire, A D; Schädel, C; Grosse, G; Harden, J W; Hayes, D J; Hugelius, G; Koven, C D; Kuhry, P; Lawrence, D M; Natali, S M; Olefeldt, D; Romanovsky, V E; Schaefer, K; Turetsky, M R; Treat, C C; Vonk, J E

2015-04-09

Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.

The microbe-mediated mechanisms affecting topsoil carbon stock in Tibetan grasslands

DOE PAGES

Yue, Haowei; Wang, Mengmeng; Wang, Shiping; ...

2015-02-17

Warming has been shown to cause soil carbon (C) loss in northern grasslands owing to accelerated microbial decomposition that offsets increased grass productivity. Yet, a multi-decadal survey indicated that the surface soil C stock in Tibetan alpine grasslands remained relatively stable. To investigate this inconsistency, we analyzed the feedback responses of soil microbial communities to simulated warming by soil transplant in Tibetan grasslands. Microbial functional diversity decreased in response to warming, whereas microbial community structure did not correlate with changes in temperature. The relative abundance of catabolic genes associated with nitrogen (N) and C cycling decreased with warming, most notablymore » in genes encoding enzymes associated with more recalcitrant C substrates. By contrast, genes associated with C fixation increased in relative abundance. The relative abundance of genes associated with urease, glutamate dehydrogenase and ammonia monoxygenase ( ureC, gdh and amoA) were significantly correlated with N 2O efflux. These results suggest that unlike arid/semiarid grasslands, Tibetan grasslands maintain negative feedback mechanisms that preserve terrestrial C and N pools. To examine whether these trends were applicable to the whole plateau, we included these measurements in a model and verified that topsoil C stocks remained relatively stable. Thus, by establishing linkages between microbial metabolic potential and soil biogeochemical processes, we conclude that long-term C loss in Tibetan grasslands is ameliorated by a reduction in microbial decomposition of recalcitrant C substrates.« less

Feedback control of combustion instabilities from within limit cycle oscillations using H∞ loop-shaping and the ν-gap metric

PubMed Central

Morgans, Aimee S.

2016-01-01

Combustion instabilities arise owing to a two-way coupling between acoustic waves and unsteady heat release. Oscillation amplitudes successively grow, until nonlinear effects cause saturation into limit cycle oscillations. Feedback control, in which an actuator modifies some combustor input in response to a sensor measurement, can suppress combustion instabilities. Linear feedback controllers are typically designed, using linear combustor models. However, when activated from within limit cycle, the linear model is invalid, and such controllers are not guaranteed to stabilize. This work develops a feedback control strategy guaranteed to stabilize from within limit cycle oscillations. A low-order model of a simple combustor, exhibiting the essential features of more complex systems, is presented. Linear plane acoustic wave modelling is combined with a weakly nonlinear describing function for the flame. The latter is determined numerically using a level set approach. Its implication is that the open-loop transfer function (OLTF) needed for controller design varies with oscillation level. The difference between the mean and the rest of the OLTFs is characterized using the ν-gap metric, providing the minimum required ‘robustness margin’ for an H∞ loop-shaping controller. Such controllers are designed and achieve stability both for linear fluctuations and from within limit cycle oscillations. PMID:27493558

A U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michalak, Anna M.; Jackson, Rob; Marland, Gregg; Sabine, Christopher

2009-03-01

First Meeting of the Carbon Cycle Science Working Group; Washington, D. C., 17-18 November 2008; The report “A U.S. carbon cycle science plan” (J. L. Sarmiento and S. C. Wofsy, U.S. Global Change Res. Program, Washington, D. C., 1999) outlined research priorities and promoted coordinated carbon cycle research across federal agencies for nearly a decade. Building on this framework and subsequent reports (available at http://www.carboncyclescience.gov/docs.php), the Carbon Cycle Science Working Group (CCSWG) was formed in 2008 to develop an updated strategy for the next decade. The recommendations of the CCSWG will go to agency managers who have collective responsibility for setting national carbon cycle science priorities and for sponsoring much of the carbon cycle research in the United States.

Molecular genetic analysis of circadian timekeeping in Drosophila

PubMed Central

Hardin, Paul E.

2014-01-01

A genetic screen for mutants that alter circadian rhythms in Drosophila identified the first clock gene - the period (per) gene. The per gene is a central player within a transcriptional feedback loop that represents the core mechanism for keeping circadian time in Drosophila and other animals. The per feedback loop, or core loop, is interlocked with the Clock (Clk) feedback loop, but whether the Clk feedback loop contributes to circadian timekeeping is not known. A series of distinct molecular events are thought to control transcriptional feedback in the core loop. The time it takes to complete these events should take much less than 24h, thus delays must be imposed at different steps within the core loop. As new clock genes are identified, the molecular mechanisms responsible for these delays have been revealed in ever-increasing detail, and provide an in depth accounting of how transcriptional feedback loops keep circadian time. The phase of these feedback loops shift to maintain synchrony with environmental cycles, the most reliable of which is light. Although a great deal is known about cell-autonomous mechanisms of light-induced phase shifting by CRYPTOCHROME (CRY), much less is known about non-cell autonomous mechanisms. CRY mediates phase shifts through an uncharacterized mechanism in certain brain oscillator neurons, and carries out a dual role as a photoreceptor and transcription factor in other tissues. Here I will review how transcriptional feedback loops function to keep time in Drosophila, how they impose delays to maintain a 24h cycle, and how they maintain synchrony with environmental light:dark cycles. The transcriptional feedback loops that keep time in Drosophila are well conserved in other animals, thus what we learn about these loops in Drosophila should continue to provide insight into the operation of analogous transcriptional feedback loops in other animals. PMID:21924977

Projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed parameter ensemble modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDougall, Andrew H.; Knutti, Reto

2016-04-01

The soils of the northern hemispheric permafrost region are estimated to contain 1100 to 1500 Pg of carbon. A substantial fraction of this carbon has been frozen and therefore protected from microbial decay for millennia. As anthropogenic climate warming progresses much of this permafrost is expected to thaw. Here we conduct perturbed model experiments on a climate model of intermediate complexity, with an improved permafrost carbon module, to estimate with formal uncertainty bounds the release of carbon from permafrost soils by the year 2100 and 2300 CE. We estimate that by year 2100 the permafrost region may release between 56 (13 to 118) Pg C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 102 (27 to 199) Pg C under RCP 8.5, with substantially more to be released under each scenario by the year 2300. Our analysis suggests that the two parameters that contribute most to the uncertainty in the release of carbon from permafrost soils are the size of the non-passive fraction of the permafrost carbon pool and the equilibrium climate sensitivity. A subset of 25 model variants are integrated 8000 years into the future under continued RCP forcing. Under the moderate RCP 4.5 forcing a remnant near-surface permafrost region persists in the high Arctic, eventually developing a new permafrost carbon pool. Overall our simulations suggest that the permafrost carbon cycle feedback to climate change will make a significant contribution to climate change over the next centuries and millennia, releasing a quantity of carbon 3 to 54 % of the cumulative anthropogenic total.

Analysis of Peer Review Comments: QM Recommendations and Feedback Intervention Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwegler, Andria F.; Altman, Barbara W.

2015-01-01

Because feedback is a critical component of the continuous improvement cycle of the Quality Matters (QM) peer review process, the present research analyzed the feedback that peer reviewers provided to course developers after a voluntary, nonofficial QM peer review of online courses. Previous research reveals that the effects of feedback on…

Temperature control during regeneration of activated carbon fiber cloth with resistance-feedback.

PubMed

Johnsen, David L; Rood, Mark J

2012-10-16

Electrothermal swing adsorption (ESA) of organic compounds from gas streams with activated carbon fiber cloth (ACFC) reduces emissions to the atmosphere and recovers feedstock for reuse. Local temperature measurement (e.g., with a thermocouple) is typically used to monitor/control adsorbent regeneration cycles. Remote electrical resistance measurement is evaluated here as an alternative to local temperature measurement. ACFC resistance that was modeled based on its physical properties was within 10.5% of the measured resistance values during electrothermal heating. Resistance control was developed based on this measured relationship and used to control temperature to within 2.3% of regeneration set-point temperatures. Isobutane-laden adsorbent was then heated with resistance control. After 2 min of heating, the temperature of the adsorbent with isobutane was 13% less than the adsorbent without isobutane. This difference decreased to 2.1% after 9 min of heating, showing desorption of isobutane. An ACFC cartridge was also heated to 175 °C for 900 cycles with its resistance and adsorption capacity values remaining within 3% and 2%, respectively. This new method to control regeneration power application based on rapid sensing of the adsorbent's resistance removes the need for direct-contact temperature sensors providing a simple, cost-efficient, and long-term regeneration technique for ESA systems.

EDITORIAL: Northern Hemisphere high latitude climate and environmental change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groisman, Pavel; Soja, Amber

2007-10-01

High Northern Hemisphere latitudes are undergoing rapid and significant change associated with climate warming. Climatic change in this region interacts with and affects the rate of the global change through atmospheric circulation, biogeophysical, and biogeochemical feedbacks. Changes in the surface energy balance, hydrologic cycle, and carbon budget feedback to regional and global weather and climate systems. Two-thirds of the Northern Hemisphere high latitude land mass resides in Northern Eurasia (~20% of the global land mass), and this region has undergone sweeping socio-economic change throughout the 20th century. How this carbon-rich, cold region component of the Earth system functions as a regional entity and interacts with and feeds back to the greater global system is to a large extent unknown. To mitigate the deficiencies in understanding these feedbacks, which may in turn hamper our understanding of the global change rates and patterns, an initiative was formed. Three years ago the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) was established to address large-scale and long-term manifestations of climate and environmental change in this region. The NEESPI Science Plan and its Executive Summary have been published at the NEESPI web site (neespi.org). Since 2004, NEESPI participants have been able to seed several waves of research proposals to international and national funding agencies and institutions and also contribute to the International Polar Year. Currently, NEESPI is widely recognized and endorsed by several Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) programmes and projects: the International Geosphere and Biosphere Programme, the World Climate Research Programme through the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment and Climate and Cryosphere Projects, the Global Water System Project, Global Carbon Project, Global Land Project, and the Integrated Land Ecosystem—Atmosphere Processes Study. Through NEESPI, more than 100 individually funded projects (always with international participation) in the United States, Russian Federation, China, European Union, Japan, and Canada have been mutually united to explore the scientifically significant Northern Eurasian region. NEESPI scientists have been quite productive during the past two years (2005 2006) publishing more than 200 books, book chapters, and papers in refereed journals. NEESPI sessions at international conferences are open to everyone who works on environmental and climate change problems in Northern Eurasia and the circumpolar boreal zone. This thematic issue brings together articles from the authors who presented their latest results at the Annual Fall American Geophysical Union Meeting in San Francisco (December 2006). The research letters in this issue are preceded by two editorial papers (Leptoukh et al and Sherstyukov et al) devoted to informational support of research in the NEESPI domain that is critical to the success of the Initiative. The following papers are quite diverse and are assembled into five groups devoted to studies of climate and hydrology, land cover and land use, the biogeochemical cycle and its feedbacks, the cryosphere, and human dimensions in the NEESPI domain and the circumpolar boreal zone. Focus on Northern Hemisphere High Latitude Climate and Environmental Change Contents The articles below represent the first accepted contributions and further additions will appear in the near future. Editorials NASA NEESPI Data and Services Center for Satellite Remote Sensing Information Gregory Leptoukh, Ivan Csiszar, Peter Romanov, Suhung Shen, Tatiana Loboda and Irina Gerasimov NEESPI Science and Data Support Center for Hydrometeorological Information in Obninsk, Russia B G Sherstyukov, V N Razuvaev, O N Bulygina and P Ya Groisman Climate and hydrology Changes in the fabric of the Arctic's greenhouse blanket Jennifer A Francis and Elias Hunter Spatial variations of summer precipitation trends in South Korea, 1973 2005 Heejun Chang and Won-Tae Kwon Land cover and land use Responses of the circumpolar boreal forest to 20th century climate variability Andrea H Lloyd and Andrew G Bunn The biogeochemical cycle and its feedbacks Sphagnum peatland development at their southern climatic range inWest Siberia: trends and peat accumulation patterns Anna Peregon, Masao Uchida and Yasuyuki Shibata Methane emissions from western Siberian wetlands: heterogeneity and sensitivity to climate change T J Bohn, D P Lettenmaier, K Sathulur, L C Bowling, E Podest, K C McDonald and T Friborg The cryosphere Potential feedback of thawing permafrost to the global climate system through methane emission O A Anisimov Glacier changes in the Siberian Altai Mountains, Ob river basin, (1952 2006) estimated with high resolution imagery A B Surazakov, V B Aizen, E M Aizen and S A Nikitin Human dimensions Food and water security in a changing arctic climate Daniel M White, S Craig Gerlach, Philip Loring, Amy C Tidwell and Molly C Chambers

Weaker soil carbon-climate feedbacks resulting from microbial and abiotic interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jinyun; Riley, William J.

2015-01-01

The large uncertainty in soil carbon-climate feedback predictions has been attributed to the incorrect parameterization of decomposition temperature sensitivity (Q10; ref. ) and microbial carbon use efficiency. Empirical experiments have found that these parameters vary spatiotemporally, but such variability is not included in current ecosystem models. Here we use a thermodynamically based decomposition model to test the hypothesis that this observed variability arises from interactions between temperature, microbial biogeochemistry, and mineral surface sorptive reactions. We show that because mineral surfaces interact with substrates, enzymes and microbes, both Q10 and microbial carbon use efficiency are hysteretic (so that neither can be represented by a single static function) and the conventional labile and recalcitrant substrate characterization with static temperature sensitivity is flawed. In a 4-K temperature perturbation experiment, our fully dynamic model predicted more variable but weaker soil carbon-climate feedbacks than did the static Q10 and static carbon use efficiency model when forced with yearly, daily and hourly variable temperatures. These results imply that current Earth system models probably overestimate the response of soil carbon stocks to global warming. Future ecosystem models should therefore consider the dynamic interactions between sorptive mineral surfaces, substrates and microbial processes.

Higher climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon in cold than warm climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, Charles D.; Hugelius, Gustaf; Lawrence, David M.; Wieder, William R.

2017-11-01

The projected loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere resulting from climate change is a potentially large but highly uncertain feedback to warming. The magnitude of this feedback is poorly constrained by observations and theory, and is disparately represented in Earth system models (ESMs). To assess the climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon, we calculate apparent soil carbon turnover times that reflect long-term and broad-scale rates of decomposition. Here, we show that the climatological temperature control on carbon turnover in the top metre of global soils is more sensitive in cold climates than in warm climates and argue that it is critical to capture this emergent ecosystem property in global-scale models. We present a simplified model that explains the observed high cold-climate sensitivity using only the physical scaling of soil freeze-thaw state across climate gradients. Current ESMs fail to capture this pattern, except in an ESM that explicitly resolves vertical gradients in soil climate and carbon turnover. An observed weak tropical temperature sensitivity emerges in a different model that explicitly resolves mineralogical control on decomposition. These results support projections of strong carbon-climate feedbacks from northern soils and demonstrate a method for ESMs to capture this emergent behaviour.

Overview of the Manitou Experimental Forest Observatory: Site description and selected science results from 2008 to 2013

Treesearch

J. Ortega; A. Turnipseed; A. B. Guenther; T. G. Karl; D. A. Day; D. Gochis; J. A. Huffman; A. J. Prenni; E. J. T. Levin; S. M. Kreidenweis; P. J. DeMott; Y. Tobo; E. G. Patton; A. Hodzic; Y. Y. Cui; P. C. Harley; R. S. Hornbrook; E. C. Apel; R. K. Monson; A. S. D. Eller; J. P. Greenberg; M. C. Barth; P. Campuzano-Jost; B. B. Palm; J. L. Jimenez; A. C. Aiken; M. K. Dubey; C. Geron; J. Offenberg; M. G. Ryan; P. J. Fornwalt; S. C. Pryor; F. N. Keutsch; J. P. DiGangi; A. W. H. Chan; A. H. Goldstein; G. M. Wolfe; S. Kim; L. Kaser; R. Schnitzhofer; A. Hansel; C. A. Cantrell; R. L. Mauldin; J. N. Smith

2014-01-01

The Bio-hydro-atmosphere interactions of Energy, Aerosols, Carbon, H2O, Organics and Nitrogen (BEACHON) project seeks to understand the feedbacks and interrelationships between hydrology, biogenic emissions, carbon assimilation, aerosol properties, clouds and associated feedbacks within water-limited ecosystems. The Manitou Experimental Forest Observatory (MEFO) was...

The GLOBE Carbon Project: Integrating the Science of Carbon Cycling and Climate Change into K-12 Classrooms.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ollinger, S. V.; Silverberg, S.; Albrechtova, J.; Freuder, R.; Gengarelly, L.; Martin, M.; Randolph, G.; Schloss, A.

2007-12-01

The global carbon cycle is a key regulator of the Earth's climate and is central to the normal function of ecological systems. Because rising atmospheric CO2 is the principal cause of climate change, understanding how ecosystems cycle and store carbon has become an extremely important issue. In recent years, the growing importance of the carbon cycle has brought it to the forefront of both science and environmental policy. The need for better scientific understanding has led to establishment of numerous research programs, such as the North American Carbon Program (NACP), which seeks to understand controls on carbon cycling under present and future conditions. Parallel efforts are greatly needed to integrate state-of-the-art science on the carbon cycle and its importance to climate with education and outreach efforts that help prepare society to make sound decisions on energy use, carbon management and climate change adaptation. Here, we present a new effort that joins carbon cycle scientists with the International GLOBE Education program to develop carbon cycle activities for K-12 classrooms. The GLOBE Carbon Cycle project is focused on bringing cutting edge research and research techniques in the field of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling into the classroom. Students will collect data about their school field site through existing protocols of phenology, land cover and soils as well as new protocols focused on leaf traits, and ecosystem growth and change. They will also participate in classroom activities to understand carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, these will include plant- a-plant experiments, hands-on demonstrations of various concepts, and analysis of collected data. In addition to the traditional GLOBE experience, students will have the opportunity to integrate their data with emerging and expanding technologies including global and local carbon cycle models and remote sensing toolkits. This program design will allow students to explore research questions from local to global scales with both present and future environmental conditions.

Post-Glacial Climate Forcing of Surface Processes in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Basin and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hein, C. J.; Galy, V.; France-Lanord, C.; Galy, A.; Kudrass, H. R.; Peucker-Ehrenbrink, B.

2016-12-01

Silicate weathering coupled with carbonate precipitation and organic carbon (OC) burial in marine sediments are the primary mechanisms sequestering atmospheric CO2 over a range of timescales. The efficiency of both processes has long been mechanistically linked to climate: increased atmospheric CO2 sequestration under warm/wet conditions acts as a negative feedback, thereby contributing to global climate regulation. Over glacial-interglacial timescales, climate has been proposed to control the export rate of terrestrial silicate weathering products and terrestrial OC to river-dominated margins, as well as the rates of chemical weathering (i.e., the efficiency of carbon sequestration). Focused on the Ganges-Brahmaputra drainage basin, this study quantifies the relative role of climate change in the efficiency of silicate weathering and OC burial following the last glacial maximum. Stable hydrogen (δD) and carbon (δ13C) isotopic compositions of terrestrial plant wax compounds preserved in the Bengal Fan channel-levee system capture variations in the strength of the Indian summer monsoon and vegetation dynamics. Specifically, a 40‰ shift in δD and a 4‰ shift in both bulk OC and plant wax δ13C values between the late glacial and mid-Holocene, followed by a return to more intermediate values during the late Holocene, correlate well with regional post-glacial paleoclimate records. Sediment provenance proxies (Sr, Nd isotopic compositions) reveal that these changes coincided with a focusing of erosion on the southern flank of the Himalayan range during periods of greater monsoon strength and enhanced sediment discharge. However, OC loading, and thus carbon burial efficiency, in the Bengal Fan remained constant through time, demonstrating the primacy of physical erosion and climate-driven sediment export in marine OC sequestration. In contrast, a gradual increase in K/Si* and Ca/Si, and decrease in H2O+/Si*, throughout the study period may demonstrate the decoupling of climate and silicate weathering during the late Holocene, if those ratios are valid proxies for catchment-scale chemical weathering intensity. Together, these results reveal the dominant feedback between climate and sediment-export / OC-burial within the Ganges-Brahmaputra / Bengal Fan system following deglaciation.

The Longterm Effects of Climate Change in European Shrubland Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmett, B.; Sowerby, A.; Smith, A.; EU Increase-infrastructure Project Team

2011-12-01

Shrublands constitute significant and important parts of European landscapes providing a large number of important ecosystem services. Biogeochemical cycles in these ecosystems have gained little attention relative to forests and grassland systems. As climate change progresses the potential feedback from the biosphere to the atmosphere through changes in above and below-ground structure and functioning will become increasingly important. A series of replicate long term climate change experiments have been running for ca. 10 years in contrasting shrubland types across Europe to quantify; (a) the potential changes in carbon sequestration, GHG emissions and nutrient cycling, (b) the links to above and below-ground biodiversity, and (c) implications for water quality, in response to warming and repeated summer drought. Results indicate a relatively high rate of below-ground carbon allocation compared to forest systems and the importance of modifying factors such as past and current management, atmospheric deposition and soil type in determining resilience to change. Unexpectedly, sustained reduction in soil moisture over winter (between drought periods and despite major winter rainfall) was observed in the repeated summer drought treatment, along with a reduction in the maximum water-holding capacity attained. The persistent reduction in soil moisture throughout the year resulted in a year-round increase in soil respiration flux, a response that accelerated over time to 40% above control levels in the hydric, organic-rich UK system. As above-ground biomass, litter production and diversity was remarkably stable, changes in soil fungal communities and soil physical structure appear to be critical in driving changes in soil carbon fluxes in this organic-rich site. Current ecosystem models may under-estimate potential changes in carbon loss in response to climate change if changes in soil biological and physical properties are not included.

Belowground Response to Drought in a Tropical Forest Soil. II. Change in Microbial Function Impacts Carbon Composition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Wood, Tana E.; Baran, Richard

Climate model projections for tropical regions show clear perturbation of precipitation patterns leading to increased frequency and severity of drought in some regions. Previous work has shown declining soil moisture to be a strong driver of changes in microbial trait distribution, however, the feedback of any shift in functional potential on ecosystem properties related to carbon cycling are poorly understood. Here we show that drought-induced changes in microbial functional diversity and activity shape, and are in turn shaped by, the composition of dissolved and soil-associated carbon. We also demonstrate that a shift in microbial functional traits that favor the productionmore » of hygroscopic compounds alter the efflux of carbon dioxide following soil rewetting. Under drought the composition of the dissolved organic carbon pool changed in a manner consistent with a microbial metabolic response. We hypothesize that this microbial ecophysiological response to changing soil moisture elevates the intracellular carbon demand stimulating extracellular enzyme production, that prompts the observed decline in more complex carbon compounds (e.g., cellulose and lignin). Furthermore, a metabolic response to drought appeared to condition (biologically and physically) the soil, notably through the production of polysaccharides, particularly in experimental plots that had been pre-exposed to a short-term drought. This hysteretic response, in addition to an observed drought-related decline in phosphorus concentration, may have been responsible for a comparatively modest CO 2 efflux following wet-up in drought plots relative to control plots.« less

Belowground Response to Drought in a Tropical Forest Soil. II. Change in Microbial Function Impacts Carbon Composition

PubMed Central

Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Wood, Tana E.; Baran, Richard; Hao, Zhao; Ye, Zaw; Bowen, Ben P.; Lim, Hsiao Chien; Nico, Peter S.; Holman, Hoi-Ying; Gilbert, Benjamin; Silver, Whendee L.; Northen, Trent R.; Brodie, Eoin L.

2016-01-01

Climate model projections for tropical regions show clear perturbation of precipitation patterns leading to increased frequency and severity of drought in some regions. Previous work has shown declining soil moisture to be a strong driver of changes in microbial trait distribution, however, the feedback of any shift in functional potential on ecosystem properties related to carbon cycling are poorly understood. Here we show that drought-induced changes in microbial functional diversity and activity shape, and are in turn shaped by, the composition of dissolved and soil-associated carbon. We also demonstrate that a shift in microbial functional traits that favor the production of hygroscopic compounds alter the efflux of carbon dioxide following soil rewetting. Under drought the composition of the dissolved organic carbon pool changed in a manner consistent with a microbial metabolic response. We hypothesize that this microbial ecophysiological response to changing soil moisture elevates the intracellular carbon demand stimulating extracellular enzyme production, that prompts the observed decline in more complex carbon compounds (e.g., cellulose and lignin). Furthermore, a metabolic response to drought appeared to condition (biologically and physically) the soil, notably through the production of polysaccharides, particularly in experimental plots that had been pre-exposed to a short-term drought. This hysteretic response, in addition to an observed drought-related decline in phosphorus concentration, may have been responsible for a comparatively modest CO2 efflux following wet-up in drought plots relative to control plots. PMID:27014243

Belowground Response to Drought in a Tropical Forest Soil. II. Change in Microbial Function Impacts Carbon Composition

DOE PAGES

Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Wood, Tana E.; Baran, Richard; ...

2016-03-15

Climate model projections for tropical regions show clear perturbation of precipitation patterns leading to increased frequency and severity of drought in some regions. Previous work has shown declining soil moisture to be a strong driver of changes in microbial trait distribution, however, the feedback of any shift in functional potential on ecosystem properties related to carbon cycling are poorly understood. Here we show that drought-induced changes in microbial functional diversity and activity shape, and are in turn shaped by, the composition of dissolved and soil-associated carbon. We also demonstrate that a shift in microbial functional traits that favor the productionmore » of hygroscopic compounds alter the efflux of carbon dioxide following soil rewetting. Under drought the composition of the dissolved organic carbon pool changed in a manner consistent with a microbial metabolic response. We hypothesize that this microbial ecophysiological response to changing soil moisture elevates the intracellular carbon demand stimulating extracellular enzyme production, that prompts the observed decline in more complex carbon compounds (e.g., cellulose and lignin). Furthermore, a metabolic response to drought appeared to condition (biologically and physically) the soil, notably through the production of polysaccharides, particularly in experimental plots that had been pre-exposed to a short-term drought. This hysteretic response, in addition to an observed drought-related decline in phosphorus concentration, may have been responsible for a comparatively modest CO 2 efflux following wet-up in drought plots relative to control plots.« less

Student Satisfaction Surveys: The Value in Taking an Historical Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kane, David; Williams, James; Cappuccini-Ansfield, Gillian

2008-01-01

Benchmarking satisfaction over time can be extremely valuable where a consistent feedback cycle is employed. However, the value of benchmarking over a long period of time has not been analysed in depth. What is the value of benchmarking this type of data over time? What does it tell us about a feedback and action cycle? What impact does a study of…

Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopp, R. E.; Hayhoe, K.; Easterling, D. R.; Hall, T.; Horton, R.; Kunkel, K. E.; LeGrande, A. N.

2017-01-01

The Earth system is made up of many components that interact in complex ways across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. As a result of these interactions the behavior of the system cannot be predicted by looking at individual components in isolation. Negative feedbacks, or self-stabilizing cycles, within and between components of the Earth system can dampen changes (Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change). However, their stabilizing effects render such feedbacks of less concern from a risk perspective than positive feedbacks, or self-reinforcing cycles. Positive feedbacks magnify both natural and anthropogenic changes. Some Earth system components, such as arctic sea ice and the polar ice sheets, may exhibit thresholds beyond which these self-reinforcing cycles can drive the component, or the entire system, into a radically different state. Although the probabilities of these state shifts may be difficult to assess, their consequences could be high, potentially exceeding anything anticipated by climate model projections for the coming century.

An introduction to global carbon cycle management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sundquist, Eric T.; Ackerman, Katherine V.; Parker, Lauren; Huntzinger, Deborah N.

2009-01-01

Past and current human activities have fundamentally altered the global carbon cycle. Potential future efforts to control atmospheric CO2 will also involve significant changes in the global carbon cycle. Carbon cycle scientists and engineers now face not only the difficulties of recording and understanding past and present changes but also the challenge of providing information and tools for new management strategies that are responsive to societal needs. The challenge is nothing less than managing the global carbon cycle.

Solar Fuels and Carbon Cycle 2.0 (Carbon Cycle 2.0)

ScienceCinema

Alivisatos, Paul

2018-05-08

Paul Alivisatos, LBNL Director speaks at the Carbon Cycle 2.0 kick-off symposium Feb. 4, 2010. We emit more carbon into the atmosphere than natural processes are able to remove - an imbalance with negative consequences. Carbon Cycle 2.0 is a Berkeley Lab initiative to provide the science needed to restore this balance by integrating the Labs diverse research activities and delivering creative solutions toward a carbon-neutral energy future.

Combining super-ensembles and statistical emulation to improve a regional climate and vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, L. R.; Rupp, D. E.; Li, S.; Sarah, S.; McNeall, D. J.; Mote, P.; Betts, R. A.; Wallom, D.

2017-12-01

Changing regional patterns of surface temperature, precipitation, and humidity may cause ecosystem-scale changes in vegetation, altering the distribution of trees, shrubs, and grasses. A changing vegetation distribution, in turn, alters the albedo, latent heat flux, and carbon exchanged with the atmosphere with resulting feedbacks onto the regional climate. However, a wide range of earth-system processes that affect the carbon, energy, and hydrologic cycles occur at sub grid scales in climate models and must be parameterized. The appropriate parameter values in such parameterizations are often poorly constrained, leading to uncertainty in predictions of how the ecosystem will respond to changes in forcing. To better understand the sensitivity of regional climate to parameter selection and to improve regional climate and vegetation simulations, we used a large perturbed physics ensemble and a suite of statistical emulators. We dynamically downscaled a super-ensemble (multiple parameter sets and multiple initial conditions) of global climate simulations using a 25-km resolution regional climate model HadRM3p with the land-surface scheme MOSES2 and dynamic vegetation module TRIFFID. We simultaneously perturbed land surface parameters relating to the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and atmosphere in a large super-ensemble of regional climate simulations over the western US. Statistical emulation was used as a computationally cost-effective tool to explore uncertainties in interactions. Regions of parameter space that did not satisfy observational constraints were eliminated and an ensemble of parameter sets that reduce regional biases and span a range of plausible interactions among earth system processes were selected. This study demonstrated that by combining super-ensemble simulations with statistical emulation, simulations of regional climate could be improved while simultaneously accounting for a range of plausible land-atmosphere feedback strengths.

Vascular plants promote ancient peatland carbon loss with climate warming.

PubMed

Walker, Tom N; Garnett, Mark H; Ward, Susan E; Oakley, Simon; Bardgett, Richard D; Ostle, Nicholas J

2016-05-01

Northern peatlands have accumulated one third of the Earth's soil carbon stock since the last Ice Age. Rapid warming across northern biomes threatens to accelerate rates of peatland ecosystem respiration. Despite compensatory increases in net primary production, greater ecosystem respiration could signal the release of ancient, century- to millennia-old carbon from the peatland organic matter stock. Warming has already been shown to promote ancient peatland carbon release, but, despite the key role of vegetation in carbon dynamics, little is known about how plants influence the source of peatland ecosystem respiration. Here, we address this issue using in situ (14)C measurements of ecosystem respiration on an established peatland warming and vegetation manipulation experiment. Results show that warming of approximately 1 °C promotes respiration of ancient peatland carbon (up to 2100 years old) when dwarf-shrubs or graminoids are present, an effect not observed when only bryophytes are present. We demonstrate that warming likely promotes ancient peatland carbon release via its control over organic inputs from vascular plants. Our findings suggest that dwarf-shrubs and graminoids prime microbial decomposition of previously 'locked-up' organic matter from potentially deep in the peat profile, facilitating liberation of ancient carbon as CO2. Furthermore, such plant-induced peat respiration could contribute up to 40% of ecosystem CO2 emissions. If consistent across other subarctic and arctic ecosystems, this represents a considerable fraction of ecosystem respiration that is currently not acknowledged by global carbon cycle models. Ultimately, greater contribution of ancient carbon to ecosystem respiration may signal the loss of a previously stable peatland carbon pool, creating potential feedbacks to future climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Phosphorus feedbacks constraining tropical ecosystem responses to changes in atmospheric CO2 and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiaojuan; Thornton, Peter E.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Hoffman, Forrest M.

2016-07-01

The effects of phosphorus (P) availability on carbon (C) cycling in the Amazon region are investigated using CLM-CNP. We demonstrate that the coupling of P dynamics reduces the simulated historical terrestrial C sink due to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) by about 26%. Our exploratory simulations show that the response of tropical forest C cycling to increasing [CO2] depends on how elevated CO2 affects phosphatase enzyme production. The effects of warming are more complex, depending on the interactions between humidity, C, and nutrient dynamics. While a simulation with low humidity generally shows the reduction of net primary productivity (NPP), a second simulation with higher humidity suggests overall increases in NPP due to the dominant effects of reduced water stress and more nutrient availability. Our simulations point to the need for (1) new observations on how elevated [CO2] affects phosphatase enzyme production and (2) more tropical leaf-scale measurements under different temperature/humidity conditions with different soil P availability.

A multi-year Record of Total Column and Lower-Tropospheric Methane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worden, J.; Yin, Y.; Frankenberg, C.; Bloom, A. A.

2017-12-01

Evaluating carbon / climate interactions and feedbacks and their effects on global fluxes of methane require a record of well-calibrated and validated methane data that is long enough to span several perturbations to rain and drought related to ENSO or other climactic perturbations along with the spatial sampling that can infer how these changes in the water and carbon cycles affect methane fluxes from wetlands and fires. Here we describe the first version of a decadal scale record of total column and lower-tropospheric methane derived from reflected sunlight and thermal IR measurements (SCIAMACHY, GOSAT, TES, and AIRS). We describe the validation of these data sets using independent data such as from TCCON, the surface network, and aircraft and how they can be inter-calibrated using a global atmospheric model as a transfer function to construct a long-term data record. We show how the new lower-tropospheric measurements can potentially provide new insights into wetland fluxes and how they vary inter-annually with rainfall and temperature perturbations.

Nanomaterial Case Study: A Comparison of Multiwalled ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This Independent Peer Review Draft document presents a case study of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs); it focuses on the specific example of MWCNTs as used in flame-retardant coatings applied to upholstery textiles. This case study is organized around the comprehensive environmental assessment (CEA) framework, which structures available information pertaining to the product life cycle, environmental transport and fate, exposure-dose in receptors (i.e., humans, ecological populations, and the environment), and potential impacts in these receptors. The document does not draw conclusions about potential risks, or present an exhaustive review of the literature. Rather, it was used in an independent peer review to provide feedback on revisions that EPA made to the external review draft of the document based on public comments and the CEA process to identify research gaps for MWCNTs. This document seeks to identify what is known and unknown related to assessing the health and environmental implications of a nanomaterial; in this case multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) used in flame-retardant coatings applied to textiles.

Ecosystem functioning is enveloped by hydrometeorological variability.

PubMed

Pappas, Christoforos; Mahecha, Miguel D; Frank, David C; Babst, Flurin; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2017-09-01

Terrestrial ecosystem processes, and the associated vegetation carbon dynamics, respond differently to hydrometeorological variability across timescales, and so does our scientific understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Long-term variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle is not yet well constrained and the resulting climate-biosphere feedbacks are highly uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive overview of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability from hourly to decadal timescales integrating multiple in situ and remote-sensing datasets characterizing extra-tropical forest sites. We find that ecosystem variability at all sites is confined within a hydrometeorological envelope across sites and timescales. Furthermore, ecosystem variability demonstrates long-term persistence, highlighting ecological memory and slow ecosystem recovery rates after disturbances. However, simulation results with state-of-the-art process-based models do not reflect this long-term persistent behaviour in ecosystem functioning. Accordingly, we develop a cross-time-scale stochastic framework that captures hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability. Our analysis offers a perspective for terrestrial ecosystem modelling and paves the way for new model-data integration opportunities in Earth system sciences.

Interactions of the marine phosphorus and carbon cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Froelich, P. N.

1984-01-01

About 30 to 50% of the fluvial P-input to the oceans derives from release of reactive-P from particles during their passage through estuaries. The input is matched by P-removal into three approximately equivalent sink: (1) burial in phosphorites on productive shelves; (2) burial with (org) in the deep-sea; and (3) burial with biogenic calcite in the deep-sea. The P/C burial ratio in these three phases is very different: P/C (org) approximately .004; P/C (CaCO3) approximately .001; and P/C (PHOS) approximately .03. The removal mechanisms are all coupled to primary production in the surface ocean, but the details of the feedback mechanisms controlling the steady-state nutrient and carbon budgets in the sea are doscured by lack of knowledge of how the P/C ratios in the sinks adjust, and how shifts in oceanic nutrients affect oceanic ecology and the relative fraction of biogenic CaCO3 and (org) production.

A global experiment suggests climate warming will not accelerate litter decomposition in streams but might reduce carbon sequestration.

PubMed

Boyero, Luz; Pearson, Richard G; Gessner, Mark O; Barmuta, Leon A; Ferreira, Verónica; Graça, Manuel A S; Dudgeon, David; Boulton, Andrew J; Callisto, Marcos; Chauvet, Eric; Helson, Julie E; Bruder, Andreas; Albariño, Ricardo J; Yule, Catherine M; Arunachalam, Muthukumarasamy; Davies, Judy N; Figueroa, Ricardo; Flecker, Alexander S; Ramírez, Alonso; Death, Russell G; Iwata, Tomoya; Mathooko, Jude M; Mathuriau, Catherine; Gonçalves, José F; Moretti, Marcelo S; Jinggut, Tajang; Lamothe, Sylvain; M'Erimba, Charles; Ratnarajah, Lavenia; Schindler, Markus H; Castela, José; Buria, Leonardo M; Cornejo, Aydeé; Villanueva, Verónica D; West, Derek C

2011-03-01

The decomposition of plant litter is one of the most important ecosystem processes in the biosphere and is particularly sensitive to climate warming. Aquatic ecosystems are well suited to studying warming effects on decomposition because the otherwise confounding influence of moisture is constant. By using a latitudinal temperature gradient in an unprecedented global experiment in streams, we found that climate warming will likely hasten microbial litter decomposition and produce an equivalent decline in detritivore-mediated decomposition rates. As a result, overall decomposition rates should remain unchanged. Nevertheless, the process would be profoundly altered, because the shift in importance from detritivores to microbes in warm climates would likely increase CO(2) production and decrease the generation and sequestration of recalcitrant organic particles. In view of recent estimates showing that inland waters are a significant component of the global carbon cycle, this implies consequences for global biogeochemistry and a possible positive climate feedback. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Determinants of carbon release from the active layer and permafrost deposits on the Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Chen, Leiyi; Liang, Junyi; Qin, Shuqi; Liu, Li; Fang, Kai; Xu, Yunping; Ding, Jinzhi; Li, Fei; Luo, Yiqi; Yang, Yuanhe

2016-01-01

The sign and magnitude of permafrost carbon (C)-climate feedback are highly uncertain due to the limited understanding of the decomposability of thawing permafrost and relevant mechanistic controls over C release. Here, by combining aerobic incubation with biomarker analysis and a three-pool model, we reveal that C quality (represented by a higher amount of fast cycling C but a lower amount of recalcitrant C compounds) and normalized CO2–C release in permafrost deposits were similar or even higher than those in the active layer, demonstrating a high vulnerability of C in Tibetan upland permafrost. We also illustrate that C quality exerts the most control over CO2–C release from the active layer, whereas soil microbial abundance is more directly associated with CO2–C release after permafrost thaw. Taken together, our findings highlight the importance of incorporating microbial properties into Earth System Models when predicting permafrost C dynamics under a changing environment. PMID:27703168

Phenotypic Variability in the Coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi.

PubMed

Blanco-Ameijeiras, Sonia; Lebrato, Mario; Stoll, Heather M; Iglesias-Rodriguez, Debora; Müller, Marius N; Méndez-Vicente, Ana; Oschlies, Andreas

2016-01-01

Coccolithophores are a vital part of oceanic phytoplankton assemblages that produce organic matter and calcium carbonate (CaCO3) containing traces of other elements (i.e. Sr and Mg). Their associated carbon export from the euphotic zone to the oceans' interior plays a crucial role in CO2 feedback mechanisms and biogeochemical cycles. The coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi has been widely studied as a model organism to understand physiological, biogeochemical, and ecological processes in marine sciences. Here, we show the inter-strain variability in physiological and biogeochemical traits in 13 strains of E. huxleyi from various biogeographical provinces obtained from culture collections commonly used in the literature. Our results demonstrate that inter-strain genetic variability has greater potential to induce larger phenotypic differences than the phenotypic plasticity of single strains cultured under a broad range of variable environmental conditions. The range of variation found in physiological parameters and calcite Sr:Ca highlights the need to reconsider phenotypic variability in paleoproxy calibrations and model parameterizations to adequately translate findings from single strain laboratory experiments to the real ocean.