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Sample records for cardiovascular risk prediction

  1. Lipoprotein metabolism indicators improve cardiovascular risk prediction

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Background: Cardiovascular disease risk increases when lipoprotein metabolism is dysfunctional. We have developed a computational model able to derive indicators of lipoprotein production, lipolysis, and uptake processes from a single lipoprotein profile measurement. This is the first study to inves...

  2. Cardiovascular risk prediction tools for populations in Asia

    PubMed Central

    Collaboration, Asia Pacific Cohort Studies

    2007-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular risk equations are traditionally derived from the Framingham Study. The accuracy of this approach in Asian populations, where resources for risk factor measurement may be limited, is unclear. Objective To compare “low‐information” equations (derived using only age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking status) derived from the Framingham Study with those derived from the Asian cohorts, on the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction. Design Separate equations to predict the 8‐year risk of a cardiovascular event were derived from Asian and Framingham cohorts. The performance of these equations, and a subsequently “recalibrated” Framingham equation, were evaluated among participants from independent Chinese cohorts. Setting Six cohort studies from Japan, Korea and Singapore (Asian cohorts); six cohort studies from China; the Framingham Study from the US. Participants 172 077 participants from the Asian cohorts; 25 682 participants from Chinese cohorts and 6053 participants from the Framingham Study. Main results In the Chinese cohorts, 542 cardiovascular events occurred during 8 years of follow‐up. Both the Asian cohorts and the Framingham equations discriminated cardiovascular risk well in the Chinese cohorts; the area under the receiver–operator characteristic curve was at least 0.75 for men and women. However, the Framingham risk equation systematically overestimated risk in the Chinese cohorts by an average of 276% among men and 102% among women. The corresponding average overestimation using the Asian cohorts equation was 11% and 10%, respectively. Recalibrating the Framingham risk equation using cardiovascular disease incidence from the non‐Chinese Asian cohorts led to an overestimation of risk by an average of 4% in women and underestimation of risk by an average of 2% in men. Interpretation A low‐information Framingham cardiovascular risk prediction tool, which, when recalibrated with

  3. Cardiovascular risk prediction in chronic kidney disease patients.

    PubMed

    Cedeño Mora, Santiago; Goicoechea, Marian; Torres, Esther; Verdalles, Úrsula; Pérez de José, Ana; Verde, Eduardo; García de Vinuesa, Soledad; Luño, José

    Scores underestimate the prediction of cardiovascular risk (CVR) as they are not validated in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Two of the most commonly used scores are the Framingham Risk Score (FRS-CVD) and the ASCVD (AHA/ACC 2013). The aim of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of experiencing a cardiovascular event (CVE) via these 2scores in the CKD population. Prospective, observational study of 400 prevalent patients with CKD (stages 4 and 5 according the KDOQI; not on dialysis). Cardiovascular risk was calculated according to the 2scores and the predictive capacity of cardiovascular events (atherosclerotic events: myocardial infarction, ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke, peripheral vascular disease; and non-atherosclerotic events: heart failure) was analysed. Forty-nine atherosclerotic cardiovascular events occurred in 40.3±6.6 months of follow-up. Most of the patients were classified as high CVR by both scores (59% by the FRS-CVD and 75% by the ASCVD). All cardiovascular events occurred in the high CVR patients and both scores (FRS-CVD log-rank 12.2, P<.001, HR 3.1 [95% CI: 1.3-7.1] P: 0.006 and ASCVD log-rank 8.5 P<.001, HR 3.2 [95% CI: 1.1-9.4] P: 0.03) were independent predictors adjusted to renal function, albuminuria and previous cardiovascular events. The cardiovascular risk scores (FRS-CVD and ASCVD [AHA/ACC 2013]) can estimate the probability of atherosclerotic cardiovascular events in patients with CKD regardless of renal function, albuminuria and previous cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Nefrología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  4. Can nocturnal hypertension predict cardiovascular risk?

    PubMed Central

    Friedman, Oded; Logan, Alexander G

    2009-01-01

    Nocturnal hypertension and non-dipping of blood pressure during sleep are distinct entities that often occur together and are regarded as important harbingers of poor cardiovascular prognosis. This review addresses several aspects related to these blood pressure abnormalities including definitions, diagnostic limitations, pathogenesis and associated patient profiles, prognostic significance, and therapeutic strategies. Taken together, persistent nocturnal hypertension and non-dipping blood pressure pattern, perhaps secondary to abnormal renal sodium handling and/or altered nocturnal sympathovagal balance, are strongly associated with deaths, cardiovascular events, and progressive loss of renal function, independent of daytime and 24-hour blood pressure. Several pharmacological and non-pharmacological approaches may restore nocturnal blood pressure and circadian blood pressure rhythm to normal; however, whether this translates to a clinically meaningful reduction in unfavorable cardiovascular and renal consequences remains to be seen. PMID:21949613

  5. Can nocturnal hypertension predict cardiovascular risk?

    PubMed

    Friedman, Oded; Logan, Alexander G

    2009-01-01

    Nocturnal hypertension and non-dipping of blood pressure during sleep are distinct entities that often occur together and are regarded as important harbingers of poor cardiovascular prognosis. This review addresses several aspects related to these blood pressure abnormalities including definitions, diagnostic limitations, pathogenesis and associated patient profiles, prognostic significance, and therapeutic strategies. Taken together, persistent nocturnal hypertension and non-dipping blood pressure pattern, perhaps secondary to abnormal renal sodium handling and/or altered nocturnal sympathovagal balance, are strongly associated with deaths, cardiovascular events, and progressive loss of renal function, independent of daytime and 24-hour blood pressure. Several pharmacological and non-pharmacological approaches may restore nocturnal blood pressure and circadian blood pressure rhythm to normal; however, whether this translates to a clinically meaningful reduction in unfavorable cardiovascular and renal consequences remains to be seen.

  6. Validity of cardiovascular risk prediction models in kidney transplant recipients.

    PubMed

    Mansell, Holly; Stewart, Samuel Alan; Shoker, Ahmed

    2014-01-01

    Predicting cardiovascular risk is of great interest in renal transplant recipients since cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of mortality. To conduct a systematic review to assess the validity of cardiovascular risk prediction models in this population. Five databases were searched (MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, CINAHL, and Web of Science) and cohort studies with at least one year of follow-up were included. Variables that described population characteristics, study design, and prognostic performance were extracted. The Quality in Prognostic Studies (QUIPS) tool was used to evaluate bias. Seven studies met the criteria for inclusion, of which, five investigated the Framingham risk score and three used a transplant-specific model. Sample sizes ranged from 344 to 23,575, and three studies lacked sufficient event rates to confidently reach conclusion. Four studies reported discrimination (as measured by c-statistic), which ranged from 0.701 to 0.75, while only one risk model was both internally and externally validated. The Framingham has underestimated cardiovascular events in renal transplant recipients, but these studies have not been robust. A risk prediction model has been externally validated at least on one occasion, but comprehensive validation in multiple cohorts and impact analysis are recommended before widespread clinical application is advocated.

  7. Cardiovascular risk

    PubMed Central

    Payne, Rupert A

    2012-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease is a major, growing, worldwide problem. It is important that individuals at risk of developing cardiovascular disease can be effectively identified and appropriately stratified according to risk. This review examines what we understand by the term risk, traditional and novel risk factors, clinical scoring systems, and the use of risk for informing prescribing decisions. Many different cardiovascular risk factors have been identified. Established, traditional factors such as ageing are powerful predictors of adverse outcome, and in the case of hypertension and dyslipidaemia are the major targets for therapeutic intervention. Numerous novel biomarkers have also been described, such as inflammatory and genetic markers. These have yet to be shown to be of value in improving risk prediction, but may represent potential therapeutic targets and facilitate more targeted use of existing therapies. Risk factors have been incorporated into several cardiovascular disease prediction algorithms, such as the Framingham equation, SCORE and QRISK. These have relatively poor predictive power, and uncertainties remain with regards to aspects such as choice of equation, different risk thresholds and the roles of relative risk, lifetime risk and reversible factors in identifying and treating at-risk individuals. Nonetheless, such scores provide objective and transparent means of quantifying risk and their integration into therapeutic guidelines enables equitable and cost-effective distribution of health service resources and improves the consistency and quality of clinical decision making. PMID:22348281

  8. Cardiovascular surgery risk prediction from the patient's perspective.

    PubMed

    Miyata, Hiroaki; Motomura, Noboru; Yozu, Ryohei; Kyo, Shunei; Takamoto, Shinichi

    2011-09-01

    Previous studies have developed cardiovascular surgery outcome prediction models using only patient risk factors, but surgery outcomes from the patient's perspective seem to differ between hospitals. We have developed outcome prediction models that incorporate preoperative patient risks, as well as hospital processes and structure. Data were collected from the Japan Cardiovascular Database for patients scheduled for cardiovascular surgery between January 2005 and December 2007. We analyzed 33,821 procedures in 102 hospitals. Logistic regression was used to generate risk models, which were then validated through split-sample validation. Odds ratios, 95% confidence intervals, and P values for structures and processes in the mortality prediction model were as follows: "hospital annual adult cardiac surgery volume (continuous; every 1 procedure increase per year)" (odds ratio, 0.998; confidence interval, 0.997-0.999; P < .001); "recommended staffing and equipment" (odds ratio, 0.75; confidence interval, 0.64-0.87; P < .001); "daily conferences with cardiologists" (odds ratio, 0.79; confidence interval, 0.60-1.02; P = .073); "intensivists involved in postsurgical management" (odds ratio, 0.89; confidence interval, 0.77-1.02; P = .90); "public hospitals" (odds ratio, 0.80; confidence interval, 0.70-0.93; P = .003); "surgeons lacking miscellaneous duties" (odds ratio, 0.80; confidence interval, 0.70-0.93; P = .003); and "surgeons who work no more than 32 hours per week" (odds ratio, 0.55; confidence interval, 0.32-0.95; P = .032). The mortality prediction model had a C-index of 0.85 and a Hosmer-Lemeshow P value of .79. Our models yielded good discrimination and calibration, so they may prove useful for hospital selection based on individual patient risks and circumstances. Improved surgeon work environments were also shown to be important for both surgeons and patients. Copyright © 2011 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights

  9. Prediction models for early risk detection of cardiovascular event.

    PubMed

    Purwanto; Eswaran, Chikkannan; Logeswaran, Rajasvaran; Abdul Rahman, Abdul Rashid

    2012-04-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the major cause of death globally. More people die of CVDs each year than from any other disease. Over 80% of CVD deaths occur in low and middle income countries and occur almost equally in male and female. In this paper, different computational models based on Bayesian Networks, Multilayer Perceptron,Radial Basis Function and Logistic Regression methods are presented to predict early risk detection of the cardiovascular event. A total of 929 (626 male and 303 female) heart attack data are used to construct the models.The models are tested using combined as well as separate male and female data. Among the models used, it is found that the Multilayer Perceptron model yields the best accuracy result.

  10. Cardiovascular risk prediction in people with chronic kidney disease.

    PubMed

    Matsushita, Kunihiro; Ballew, Shoshana H; Coresh, Josef

    2016-11-01

    Clinical guidelines are not consistent regarding whether or how to utilize information on measures of chronic kidney disease (CKD) for predicting the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This review summarizes recent literature regarding CVD prediction in the context of CKD. Previous studies used different definitions of CKD measures and CVD outcomes, and applied distinct statistical approaches. A recent individual-level meta-analysis from the CKD Prognosis Consortium is of value as it has uniformly investigated creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria as CKD measures and applied the same statistical approach across 24 cohorts with more than 630 000 participants. In this meta-analysis, eGFR and albuminuria improve CVD risk prediction beyond traditional CVD risk factors, particularly for CVD mortality and heart failure. Albuminuria demonstrates more evident improvement than eGFR. Moreover, several recent studies have shown that other filtration markers, for example, cystatin C and β2-microglobulin, and measures of atherosclerosis or cardiac damage (e.g., coronary artery calcium and cardiac troponins) can further improve CVD prediction in the CKD population. Future clinical guidelines may require updates regarding whether/how to incorporate CKD measures and other biomarkers in CVD prediction, depending on the CVD outcomes of interest, target population, and availability of those measures/biomarkers in that population.

  11. Maternal relationship during adolescence predicts cardiovascular disease risk in adulthood.

    PubMed

    Doom, Jenalee R; Gunnar, Megan R; Clark, Cari Jo

    2016-04-01

    The current study investigated whether greater maternal support during adolescence is associated with lower levels of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in adulthood, and whether maternal support serves as a moderator or a mediator of the socioeconomic status (SES) and CVD risk association. In addition, potential moderators and mediators of the association between adult CVD risk and adolescent maternal support and SES were tested. Using the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (n = 11,013), we examined relations between maternal support during adolescence (M = 15.3 years) and CVD risk in young adulthood (M = 28.7 years) via path analysis. Maternal support was assessed by a composite of adolescent and mother report. CVD risk was calculated with a Framingham-based prediction model that uses age, sex, body mass index, smoking, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, and use of antihypertensive medication. Greater maternal support in adolescence was related to lower CVD risk in young adulthood (B = -0.56, 95% CI: -0.91 to -0.20, p < .01). The interaction between adolescent SES and maternal support was not significant, (p > .05), but there was an interaction between maternal support and race such that African American adolescents were more sensitive than Whites to the effects of maternal support on CVD risk (B = -0.90, 95% CI: -1.56, -0.25, p < .01). In addition, there was no evidence that maternal support mediated the association between SES and CVD risk (p > .05), and there was no association between SES and maternal support (p > .05), adjusting for confounders. However, the relations of adolescent maternal support and SES to adult CVD risk were mediated by young adult health behaviors and financial stress but not by depressive symptoms. Greater maternal support during adolescence appears to act independently of SES when impacting CVD risk and may operate through health behaviors and financial stress. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights

  12. Childhood body mass index trajectories predicting cardiovascular risk in adolescence.

    PubMed

    Boyer, Brittany P; Nelson, Jackie A; Holub, Shayla C

    2015-06-01

    The present study compared growth parameters of girls' and boys' body mass index (BMI) trajectories from infancy to middle childhood and evaluated these parameters as predictors of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in adolescence. Using 657 children from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development, quadratic growth curve analyses were conducted to establish growth parameters (intercept, slope, and quadratic term) for girls and boys from age 15 months to 10.5 years. Parameters were compared across gender and evaluated as predictors of a CVD risk index at the age of 15 years, controlling for characteristics of the adiposity rebound (AR) including age at which it occurred and children's BMI at the rebound. Boys had more extreme trajectories of growth than girls with higher initial BMI at age 15 months (intercept), more rapid declines in BMI before the AR (slope), and sharper rebound growth in BMI after the rebound (quadratic term). For boys and girls, higher intercept, slope, and quadratic term values predicted higher CVD risk at the age of 15 years, controlling for characteristics of the AR. Findings suggest that individuals at risk for developing CVD later in life may be identified before the AR by elevated BMI at 15 months and slow BMI declines. Because of the importance of early intervention in altering lifelong health trajectories, consistent BMI monitoring is essential in identifying high-risk children. Copyright © 2015 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Childhood BMI Trajectories Predicting Cardiovascular Risk in Adolescence

    PubMed Central

    Boyer, Brittany P.; Nelson, Jackie A.; Holub, Shayla C.

    2015-01-01

    Objective The current study compared growth parameters of girls’ and boys’ BMI trajectories from infancy to middle childhood, and evaluated these parameters as predictors of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in adolescence. Methods Using 657 children from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development (SECCYD), quadratic growth curve analyses were conducted to establish growth parameters (intercept, slope, quadratic term) for girls and boys from 15 months to age 10 ½. Parameters were compared across gender and evaluated as predictors of a CVD risk index at age 15, controlling for characteristics of the adiposity rebound (AR) including age at which it occurred and children’s BMI at the rebound. Results Boys had more extreme trajectories of growth compared to girls with higher initial BMI at 15 months (intercept), more rapid declines in BMI before the AR (slope), and sharper rebound growth in BMI after the rebound (quadratic term). For boys and girls, higher intercept, slope, and quadratic term values predicted higher CVD risk at age 15, controlling for characteristics of the AR. Conclusions Findings suggest that individuals at risk for developing CVD later in life may be identified before the AR by elevated BMI at 15 months and slow BMI declines. Due to the importance of early intervention in altering lifelong health trajectories, consistent BMI monitoring is essential in identifying high-risk children. PMID:25746172

  14. Development and validation of a cardiovascular risk prediction model for Japanese: the Hisayama study.

    PubMed

    Arima, Hisatomi; Yonemoto, Koji; Doi, Yasufumi; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Hata, Jun; Tanizaki, Yumihiro; Fukuhara, Masayo; Matsumura, Kiyoshi; Iida, Mitsuo; Kiyohara, Yutaka

    2009-12-01

    The objective of this paper is to develop a new risk prediction model of cardiovascular disease and to validate its performance in a general population of Japanese. The Hisayama study is a population-based prospective cohort study. A total of 2634 participants aged 40 years or older were followed up for 14 years for incident cardiovascular disease (stroke and coronary heart disease (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization and sudden cardiac death)). We used data among a random two-thirds (the derivation cohort, n=1756) to develop a new risk prediction model that was then tested to compare observed and predicted outcomes in the remaining one-third (the validation cohort, n=878). A multivariable cardiovascular risk prediction model was developed that incorporated age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and smoking. We assessed the performance of the model for predicting individual cardiovascular event among the validation cohort. The risk prediction model demonstrated good discrimination (c-statistic=0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.77 to 0.86) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi(2)-statistic=6.46; P=0.60). A simple risk score sheet based on the cardiovascular risk prediction model was also presented. We developed and validated a new cardiovascular risk prediction model in a general population of Japanese. The risk prediction model would provide a useful guide to estimate absolute risk of cardiovascular disease and to treat individual risk factors.

  15. Interpreting Hemoglobin A1C in Combination With Conventional Risk Factors for Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk

    PubMed Central

    Jarmul, Jamie A.; Pignone, Michael; Pletcher, Mark J.

    2015-01-01

    Background Hemoglobin A1C (HbA1C) is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events, but its use for prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in combination with conventional risk factors has not been well defined. Methods and Results To understand the effect of HbA1C on CVD risk in the context of other CVD risk factors, we analyzed HbA1C and other CVD risk factor measurements in 2000 individuals aged 40-79 years old without pre-existing diabetes or cardiovascular disease from the 2011-2012 NHANES survey. The resulting regression model was used to predict the HbA1C distribution based on individual patient characteristics. We then calculated post-test 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk incorporating the actual versus predicted HbA1C, according to established methods, for a set of example scenarios. Age, gender, race/ethnicity and traditional cardiovascular risk factors were significant predictors of HbA1C in our model, with the expected HbA1C distribution being significantly higher in non-Hispanic black, non-Hispanic Asian and Hispanic individuals than non-Hispanic white/other individuals. Incorporating the expected HbA1C distribution into pretest ASCVD risk has a modest effect on post-test ASCVD risk. In the patient examples we assessed, having an HbA1C < 5.7% reduced post-test risk by 0.4%-2.0% points, whereas having an HbA1C ≥ 6.5% increased post-test risk by 1.0%-2.5% points, depending on the scenario. The post-test risk increase from having an HbA1C ≥ 6.5 % tends to approximate the risk increase from being five years older in age. Conclusions HbA1C has modest effects on predicted ASCVD risk when considered in the context of conventional risk factors. PMID:26349840

  16. Use of Chronic Kidney Disease to Enhance Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk in Those at Medium Risk.

    PubMed

    Chia, Yook Chin; Lim, Hooi Min; Ching, Siew Mooi

    2015-01-01

    Based on global cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment for example using the Framingham risk score, it is recommended that those with high risk should be treated and those with low risk should not be treated. The recommendation for those of medium risk is less clear and uncertain. We aimed to determine whether factoring in chronic kidney disease (CKD) will improve CV risk prediction in those with medium risk. This is a 10-year retrospective cohort study of 905 subjects in a primary care clinic setting. Baseline CV risk profile and serum creatinine in 1998 were captured from patients record. Framingham general cardiovascular disease risk score (FRS) for each patient was computed. All cardiovascular disease (CVD) events from 1998-2007 were captured. Overall, patients with CKD had higher FRS risk score (25.9% vs 20%, p = 0.001) and more CVD events (22.3% vs 11.9%, p = 0.002) over a 10-year period compared to patients without CKD. In patients with medium CV risk, there was no significant difference in the FRS score among those with and without CKD (14.4% vs 14.6%, p = 0.84) However, in this same medium risk group, patients with CKD had more CV events compared to those without CKD (26.7% vs 6.6%, p = 0.005). This is in contrast to patients in the low and high risk group where there was no difference in CVD events whether these patients had or did not have CKD. There were more CV events in the Framingham medium risk group when they also had CKD compared those in the same risk group without CKD. Hence factoring in CKD for those with medium risk helps to further stratify and identify those who are actually at greater risk, when treatment may be more likely to be indicated.

  17. Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk Using Framingham, ASSIGN and QRISK2: How Well Do They Predict Individual Rather than Population Risk?

    PubMed Central

    van Staa, Tjeerd-Pieter; Gulliford, Martin; Ng, Edmond S.-W.; Goldacre, Ben; Smeeth, Liam

    2014-01-01

    Background The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of risk scores (Framingham, Assign and QRISK2) in predicting high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals rather than populations. Methods and findings This study included 1.8 million persons without CVD and prior statin prescribing using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. This contains electronic medical records of the general population registered with a UK general practice. Individual CVD risks were estimated using competing risk regression models. Individual differences in the 10-year CVD risks as predicted by risk scores and competing risk models were estimated; the population was divided into 20 subgroups based on predicted risk. CVD outcomes occurred in 69,870 persons. In the subgroup with lowest risks, risk predictions by QRISK2 were similar to individual risks predicted using our competing risk model (99.9% of people had differences of less than 2%); in the subgroup with highest risks, risk predictions varied greatly (only 13.3% of people had differences of less than 2%). Larger deviations between QRISK2 and our individual predicted risks occurred with calendar year, different ethnicities, diabetes mellitus and number of records for medical events in the electronic health records in the year before the index date. A QRISK2 estimate of low 10-year CVD risk (<15%) was confirmed by Framingham, ASSIGN and our individual predicted risks in 89.8% while an estimate of high 10-year CVD risk (≥20%) was confirmed in only 48.6% of people. The majority of cases occurred in people who had predicted 10-year CVD risk of less than 20%. Conclusions Application of existing CVD risk scores may result in considerable misclassification of high risk status. Current practice to use a constant threshold level for intervention for all patients, together with the use of different scoring methods, may inadvertently create an arbitrary classification of high CVD risk. PMID:25271417

  18. Can machine-learning improve cardiovascular risk prediction using routine clinical data?

    PubMed

    Weng, Stephen F; Reps, Jenna; Kai, Joe; Garibaldi, Jonathan M; Qureshi, Nadeem

    2017-01-01

    Current approaches to predict cardiovascular risk fail to identify many people who would benefit from preventive treatment, while others receive unnecessary intervention. Machine-learning offers opportunity to improve accuracy by exploiting complex interactions between risk factors. We assessed whether machine-learning can improve cardiovascular risk prediction. Prospective cohort study using routine clinical data of 378,256 patients from UK family practices, free from cardiovascular disease at outset. Four machine-learning algorithms (random forest, logistic regression, gradient boosting machines, neural networks) were compared to an established algorithm (American College of Cardiology guidelines) to predict first cardiovascular event over 10-years. Predictive accuracy was assessed by area under the 'receiver operating curve' (AUC); and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) to predict 7.5% cardiovascular risk (threshold for initiating statins). 24,970 incident cardiovascular events (6.6%) occurred. Compared to the established risk prediction algorithm (AUC 0.728, 95% CI 0.723-0.735), machine-learning algorithms improved prediction: random forest +1.7% (AUC 0.745, 95% CI 0.739-0.750), logistic regression +3.2% (AUC 0.760, 95% CI 0.755-0.766), gradient boosting +3.3% (AUC 0.761, 95% CI 0.755-0.766), neural networks +3.6% (AUC 0.764, 95% CI 0.759-0.769). The highest achieving (neural networks) algorithm predicted 4,998/7,404 cases (sensitivity 67.5%, PPV 18.4%) and 53,458/75,585 non-cases (specificity 70.7%, NPV 95.7%), correctly predicting 355 (+7.6%) more patients who developed cardiovascular disease compared to the established algorithm. Machine-learning significantly improves accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction, increasing the number of patients identified who could benefit from preventive treatment, while avoiding unnecessary treatment of others.

  19. Does albuminuria predict renal risk and/or cardiovascular risk in obese type 2 diabetic patients?

    PubMed Central

    Bentata, Yassamine; Abouqal, Redouane

    2014-01-01

    Increased urinary albumin excretion (UAE) is a marker of renal and cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes (DT2). What about the obese patient with DT2? Does albuminuria predict the progression of renal disease and/or cardiovascular disease? The objective of this study is to determine the link between albuminuria, renal risk and cardiovascular risk in a cohort of obese DT2 patients. This is a prospective study begun in September 2006. It included DT2 patients presenting obesity defined by a body mass index (BMI)>30 Kg/m2. Three groups of patients were defined: normo-albuminuria (Urinary Albumin Excretion UAE<30 mg/day or Albumin Creatinine Ratio ACR<30 mg/g), micro-albuminuria (UAE=30-300 mg/day or ACR=30-300 mg/g) and macro-albuminuria (UAE>300 mg/day or ACR>300 mg/g). Data on 144 obese DT2 patients were compiled: The mean age of our patients was 59 ± 9 years and the sex ratio 0.26. The incidence of ESRD was higher in the macro-albuminuria group than in the two other groups (26.5% vs. 1.2%, p<0.001). The incidence of cardiovascular events was 15.4%, 14.3% and 23.5% in the normo, micro and macro-albuminuria groups (p=0.48). A history of cardiovascular comorbidities was the main cardiovascular risk in multivariate analysis (0R=15.07; 95% CI=5.30-42.82; p<0.001) and the low admission GFR (0R=5.67; 95% CI=1.23-9.77; p=0.008) was the main factor for progression of kidney disease in multivariate analysis. Albuminuria may be a better marker of kidney disease progression than of cardiovascular risk in the obese DT2 patient, according to our results. However, to accurately demonstrate the link albuminuria - renal risk and albuminuria - cardiovascular risk in the obese DT2 patient, additional studies using very strict criteria of selection and judgment are needed. PMID:24551483

  20. Distribution of Short-Term and Lifetime Predicted Risks of Cardiovascular Diseases in Peruvian Adults

    PubMed Central

    Quispe, Renato; Bazo-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Burroughs Peña, Melissa S; Poterico, Julio A; Gilman, Robert H; Checkley, William; Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio; Huffman, Mark D; Miranda, J Jaime

    2015-01-01

    Background Short-term risk assessment tools for prediction of cardiovascular disease events are widely recommended in clinical practice and are used largely for single time-point estimations; however, persons with low predicted short-term risk may have higher risks across longer time horizons. Methods and Results We estimated short-term and lifetime cardiovascular disease risk in a pooled population from 2 studies of Peruvian populations. Short-term risk was estimated using the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Pooled Cohort Risk Equations. Lifetime risk was evaluated using the algorithm derived from the Framingham Heart Study cohort. Using previously published thresholds, participants were classified into 3 categories: low short-term and low lifetime risk, low short-term and high lifetime risk, and high short-term predicted risk. We also compared the distribution of these risk profiles across educational level, wealth index, and place of residence. We included 2844 participants (50% men, mean age 55.9 years [SD 10.2 years]) in the analysis. Approximately 1 of every 3 participants (34% [95% CI 33 to 36]) had a high short-term estimated cardiovascular disease risk. Among those with a low short-term predicted risk, more than half (54% [95% CI 52 to 56]) had a high lifetime predicted risk. Short-term and lifetime predicted risks were higher for participants with lower versus higher wealth indexes and educational levels and for those living in urban versus rural areas (P<0.01). These results were consistent by sex. Conclusions These findings highlight potential shortcomings of using short-term risk tools for primary prevention strategies because a substantial proportion of Peruvian adults were classified as low short-term risk but high lifetime risk. Vulnerable adults, such as those from low socioeconomic status and those living in urban areas, may need greater attention regarding cardiovascular preventive strategies. PMID:26254303

  1. Biomarkers of cardiovascular disease: contributions to risk prediction in individuals with diabetes.

    PubMed

    Bachmann, Katherine N; Wang, Thomas J

    2017-09-28

    Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of death, especially in individuals with diabetes mellitus, whose risk of morbidity and mortality due to cardiovascular disease is markedly increased compared with the general population. There has been growing interest in the identification of biomarkers of cardiovascular disease in people with diabetes. The present review focuses on the current and potential contributions of these biomarkers to predicting cardiovascular risk in individuals with diabetes. At present, certain biomarkers and biomarker combinations can lead to modest improvements in the prediction of cardiovascular disease in diabetes beyond traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Emerging technologies may enable the discovery of novel biomarkers and generate new information about known biomarkers (such as new combinations of biomarkers), which could lead to significant improvements in cardiovascular disease risk prediction. A critical question, however, is whether improvements in risk prediction will affect processes of care and decision making in clinical practice, as this will be required to achieve the ultimate goal of improving clinical outcomes in diabetes.

  2. Troponin I and cardiovascular risk prediction in the general population: the BiomarCaRE consortium

    PubMed Central

    Blankenberg, Stefan; Salomaa, Veikko; Makarova, Nataliya; Ojeda, Francisco; Wild, Philipp; Lackner, Karl J.; Jørgensen, Torben; Thorand, Barbara; Peters, Annette; Nauck, Matthias; Petersmann, Astrid; Vartiainen, Erkki; Veronesi, Giovanni; Brambilla, Paolo; Costanzo, Simona; Iacoviello, Licia; Linden, Gerard; Yarnell, John; Patterson, Christopher C.; Everett, Brendan M.; Ridker, Paul M.; Kontto, Jukka; Schnabel, Renate B.; Koenig, Wolfgang; Kee, Frank; Zeller, Tanja; Kuulasmaa, Kari

    2016-01-01

    Aims Our aims were to evaluate the distribution of troponin I concentrations in population cohorts across Europe, to characterize the association with cardiovascular outcomes, to determine the predictive value beyond the variables used in the ESC SCORE, to test a potentially clinically relevant cut-off value, and to evaluate the improved eligibility for statin therapy based on elevated troponin I concentrations retrospectively. Methods and results Based on the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project, we analysed individual level data from 10 prospective population-based studies including 74 738 participants. We investigated the value of adding troponin I levels to conventional risk factors for prediction of cardiovascular disease by calculating measures of discrimination (C-index) and net reclassification improvement (NRI). We further tested the clinical implication of statin therapy based on troponin concentration in 12 956 individuals free of cardiovascular disease in the JUPITER study. Troponin I remained an independent predictor with a hazard ratio of 1.37 for cardiovascular mortality, 1.23 for cardiovascular disease, and 1.24 for total mortality. The addition of troponin I information to a prognostic model for cardiovascular death constructed of ESC SCORE variables increased the C-index discrimination measure by 0.007 and yielded an NRI of 0.048, whereas the addition to prognostic models for cardiovascular disease and total mortality led to lesser C-index discrimination and NRI increment. In individuals above 6 ng/L of troponin I, a concentration near the upper quintile in BiomarCaRE (5.9 ng/L) and JUPITER (5.8 ng/L), rosuvastatin therapy resulted in higher absolute risk reduction compared with individuals <6 ng/L of troponin I, whereas the relative risk reduction was similar. Conclusion In individuals free of cardiovascular disease, the addition of troponin I to variables of established risk score improves prediction of

  3. Is Obesity Predictive of Cardiovascular Dysfunction Independent of Cardiovascular Risk Factors?

    PubMed Central

    DeVallance, Evan; Fournier, Sara B.; Donley, David A.; Bonner, Daniel E.; Lee, Kyuwan; Frisbee, Jefferson C.; Chantler, Paul D.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Obesity is thought to exert detrimental effects on the cardiovascular (CV) system. However, this relationship is impacted by the co-occurrence of CV risk factors, type II diabetes (T2DM), and overt disease. We examined the relationships between obesity, assessed by body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), and CV function in 102 subjects without overt CV disease. We hypothesized that obesity would be independently predictive of CV remodeling and functional differences, especially at peak exercise. Methods Brachial (bSBP) and central (cSBP) systolic pressure, carotid-to-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWVcf) augmentation index (AGI) (by SphygmoCor), and carotid remodeling (B-mode ultrasound) were examined at rest. Further, peak exercise cardiac imaging (Doppler ultrasound) was performed to measure the coupling between the heart and arterial system. Results In backward elimination regression models, accounting for CV risk factors, neither BMI nor WC were predictors of carotid thickness or PWVcf; rather age, triglycerides, and hypertension were the main determinants. However, BMI and WC predicted carotid cross-sectional area and lumen diameter. When examining the relationship between body size and SBP, BMI (β=0.32) and WC (β=0.25) were predictors of bSBP (p<0.05), whereas, BMI was the only predictor of cSBP (β=0.22, p<0.05) indicating a differential relationship between cSBP, bSBP and body size. Further, BMI (β=−0.26) and WC (β=−0.27) were independent predictors of AGI (p<0.05). As for resting cardiac diastolic function, WC seemed to be a better predictor than BMI. However, both BMI and WC were inversely and independently related to arterial elastance (net arterial load) and end-systolic elastance (cardiac contractility) at rest and peak exercise. Discussion These findings illustrate that obesity, without T2DM and overt CV disease, and after accounting for CV risk factors, is susceptible to pathophysiological adaptations that may

  4. Is obesity predictive of cardiovascular dysfunction independent of cardiovascular risk factors?

    PubMed

    DeVallance, E; Fournier, S B; Donley, D A; Bonner, D E; Lee, K; Frisbee, J C; Chantler, P D

    2015-02-01

    Obesity is thought to exert detrimental effects on the cardiovascular (CV) system. However, this relationship is impacted by the co-occurrence of CV risk factors, type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and overt disease. We examined the relationships between obesity, assessed by body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), and CV function in 102 subjects without overt CV disease. We hypothesized that obesity would be independently predictive of CV remodeling and functional differences, especially at peak exercise. Brachial (bSBP) and central (cSBP) systolic pressure, carotid-to-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWVcf) augmentation index (AGI; by SphygmoCor), and carotid remodeling (B-mode ultrasound) were examined at rest. Further, peak exercise cardiac imaging (Doppler ultrasound) was performed to measure the coupling between the heart and arterial system. In backward elimination regression models, accounting for CV risk factors, neither BMI nor WC were predictors of carotid thickness or PWVcf; rather age, triglycerides and hypertension were the main determinants. However, BMI and WC predicted carotid cross-sectional area and lumen diameter. When examining the relationship between body size and SBP, BMI (β=0.32) and WC (β=0.25) were predictors of bSBP (P<0.05), whereas, BMI was the only predictor of cSBP (β=0.22, P<0.05) indicating a differential relationship between cSBP, bSBP and body size. Further, BMI (β=-0.26) and WC (β=-0.27) were independent predictors of AGI (P<0.05). As for resting cardiac diastolic function, WC seemed to be a better predictor than BMI. However, both BMI and WC were inversely and independently related to arterial-elastance (net arterial load) and end-systolic elastance (cardiac contractility) at rest and peak exercise. These findings illustrate that obesity, without T2DM and overt CV disease, and after accounting for CV risk factors, is susceptible to pathophysiological adaptations that may predispose individuals to an increased risk of CV events.

  5. Does Erectile Dysfunction Contribute to Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction beyond the Framingham Risk Score?

    PubMed Central

    Araujo, Andre B.; Hall, Susan A.; Ganz, Peter; Chiu, Gretchen R.; Rosen, Raymond C.; Kupelian, Varant; Travison, Thomas G.; McKinlay, John B.

    2010-01-01

    Objective To determine whether erectile dysfunction (ED) predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD) beyond traditional risk factors. Background ED and CVD share pathophysiological mechanisms and often co-occur. It is unknown whether ED improves the prediction of CVD beyond traditional risk factors. Methods This was a prospective, population-based study of 1,709 men (of 3,258 eligible) aged 40–70 years. ED was measured by self-report. Subjects were followed for CVD for an average follow-up of 11.7 years. The association between ED and CVD was examined using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. The discriminatory capability of ED was examined using c statistics. The reclassification of CVD risk associated with ED was assessed using a method that quantifies net reclassification improvement. Results 1,057 men with complete risk factor data who were free of CVD and diabetes at baseline were included. During follow-up, 261 new cases of CVD occurred. ED was associated with CVD incidence controlling for age (Hazard Ratio (HR): 1.42 (95% Confidence Interval (CI)): 1.05, 1.90), age and traditional CVD risk factors (HR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.90), as well as age and Framingham risk score (HR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.04–1.88). Despite these significant findings, ED did not significantly improve the prediction of CVD incidence beyond traditional risk factors. Conclusions Independent of established CVD risk factors, ED is significantly associated with increased CVD incidence. Nonetheless, ED does not improve the prediction of who will and will not develop CVD beyond that offered by traditional risk factors. PMID:20117441

  6. Can machine-learning improve cardiovascular risk prediction using routine clinical data?

    PubMed Central

    Kai, Joe; Garibaldi, Jonathan M.; Qureshi, Nadeem

    2017-01-01

    Background Current approaches to predict cardiovascular risk fail to identify many people who would benefit from preventive treatment, while others receive unnecessary intervention. Machine-learning offers opportunity to improve accuracy by exploiting complex interactions between risk factors. We assessed whether machine-learning can improve cardiovascular risk prediction. Methods Prospective cohort study using routine clinical data of 378,256 patients from UK family practices, free from cardiovascular disease at outset. Four machine-learning algorithms (random forest, logistic regression, gradient boosting machines, neural networks) were compared to an established algorithm (American College of Cardiology guidelines) to predict first cardiovascular event over 10-years. Predictive accuracy was assessed by area under the ‘receiver operating curve’ (AUC); and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) to predict 7.5% cardiovascular risk (threshold for initiating statins). Findings 24,970 incident cardiovascular events (6.6%) occurred. Compared to the established risk prediction algorithm (AUC 0.728, 95% CI 0.723–0.735), machine-learning algorithms improved prediction: random forest +1.7% (AUC 0.745, 95% CI 0.739–0.750), logistic regression +3.2% (AUC 0.760, 95% CI 0.755–0.766), gradient boosting +3.3% (AUC 0.761, 95% CI 0.755–0.766), neural networks +3.6% (AUC 0.764, 95% CI 0.759–0.769). The highest achieving (neural networks) algorithm predicted 4,998/7,404 cases (sensitivity 67.5%, PPV 18.4%) and 53,458/75,585 non-cases (specificity 70.7%, NPV 95.7%), correctly predicting 355 (+7.6%) more patients who developed cardiovascular disease compared to the established algorithm. Conclusions Machine-learning significantly improves accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction, increasing the number of patients identified who could benefit from preventive treatment, while avoiding unnecessary treatment of others

  7. Habitual sleep duration and predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk using the pooled cohort risk equations among US adults.

    PubMed

    Ford, Earl S

    2014-12-02

    The association between sleep duration and predicted cardiovascular risk has been poorly characterized. The objective of this study was to examine the association between self-reported sleep duration and predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk among US adults. Data from 7690 men and nonpregnant women who were aged 40 to 79 years, who were free of self-reported heart disease and stroke, and who participated in a National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2005 to 2012 were analyzed. Sleep duration was self-reported. Predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk was calculated using the pooled cohort equations. Among the included participants, 13.1% reported sleeping ≤5 hours, 24.4% reported sleeping 6 hours, 31.9% reported sleeping 7 hours, 25.2% reported sleeping 8 hours, 4.0% reported sleeping 9 hours, and 1.3% reported sleeping ≥10 hours. After adjustment for covariates, geometric mean-predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk was 4.0%, 3.6%, 3.4%, 3.5%, 3.7%, and 3.7% among participants who reported sleeping ≤5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and ≥10 hours per night, respectively (PWald chi-square<0.001). The age-adjusted percentages of predicted cardiovascular risk ≥20% for the 6 intervals of sleep duration were 14.5%, 11.9%, 11.0%, 11.4%, 11.8%, and 16.3% (PWald chi-square=0.022). After maximal adjustment, however, sleep duration was not significantly associated with cardiovascular risk ≥20% (PWald chi-square=0.698). Mean-predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk was lowest among adults who reported sleeping 7 hours per night and increased as participants reported sleeping fewer and more hours. © 2014 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  8. Residual Risk Factors to Predict Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Patients with and without Diabetes Mellitus.

    PubMed

    Lin, Fang-Ju; Tseng, Wei-Kung; Yin, Wei-Hsian; Yeh, Hung-I; Chen, Jaw-Wen; Wu, Chau-Chung

    2017-08-23

    A prospective observational study was conducted to investigate the residual risk factors to predict recurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) patients with a high prevalence under lipid-lowering therapy, particularly in the subpopulations of diabetic and nondiabetic individuals. A total of 5,483 adults (with a mean age of 66.4 and 73.3% male) with established coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, or peripheral artery disease were identified from the T-SPARCLE multi-center registry. Of them, 38.6% had diabetes. The residual risk factors for MACE are divergent in these atherosclerotic patients with and without diabetes. In diabetic subpopulation, the risk of MACE was significantly increased with heart failure (HF), chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage 4-5 (vs. stage 1-2), without beta blocker use, and higher non-HDL-C, after controlling for covariates including statin use and the intensity of therapy. Increased LDL-C and TG levels were also associated with increased risk, but to a much less extent. Among nondiabetic individuals, HF, CKD stage 4-5, and history of myocardial infarction were the significant independent predictors of MACE. It is suggested that ASCVD patients with concomitant diabetes need stricter control of lipid, particularly non-HDL-C levels, to reduce cardiovascular risk when on statin therapy.

  9. A simple vascular calcification score predicts cardiovascular risk in haemodialysis patients.

    PubMed

    Adragao, Teresa; Pires, Ana; Lucas, Carlos; Birne, Rita; Magalhaes, Luís; Gonçalves, Margarida; Negrao, Acácio Pita

    2004-06-01

    Cardiovascular morbidity and mortality are highly prevalent in haemodialysis (HD) patients and have been recently associated with vascular calcifications. The objective of our study was to assess the value of a simple vascular calcification score for the prediction of cardiovascular death, cardiovascular hospitalizations and fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events in HD patients, and to correlate this score with cardiovascular disease and with other known predictors of vascular disease. In this observational, prospective study 123 chronic HD patients (75 males and 48 females; 20% diabetic) were included, who were on low-flux HD treatment for 46.6+/-52 months (mean+/-SD). We set up a simple vascular calcification score based on plain radiographic films of pelvis and hands. Brachial pulse pressure and mean arterial pressure (MAP) were measured and cardiovascular events and hospitalization episodes were assessed. During an observational period of 37 months there were 17 cardiovascular deaths; 28 patients needed cardiovascular hospitalizations and 32 patients suffered fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events. Coronary artery disease was diagnosed in 43 patients (35%), peripheral arterial disease in 33 patients (26.8%), cerebrovascular disease in 16 patients (13%) and vascular disease (coronary artery disease or peripheral arterial disease or cerebral vascular disease) in 61 patients (49.6%). By binary logistic regression, diabetes (P = 0.01), male sex (P<0.001), age (P = 0.02), HD duration (P = 0.02) and MAP (P = 0.03) were independently associated with a vascular score > or =3. This score > or =3 was independently associated with coronary artery disease (P = 0.008), peripheral arterial disease (P<0.001) and vascular disease (P = 0.001). Patients with a vascular calcification score > or =3 had a 3.9-fold higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (P = 0.03), a 2.8-fold higher risk of cardiovascular hospitalizations (P = 0.02) and a 2.3-fold higher risk of fatal or non

  10. Plasma lipidomic profiling of treated HIV-positive individuals and the implications for cardiovascular risk prediction.

    PubMed

    Wong, Gerard; Trevillyan, Janine M; Fatou, Benoit; Cinel, Michelle; Weir, Jacquelyn M; Hoy, Jennifer F; Meikle, Peter J

    2014-01-01

    The increased risk of coronary artery disease in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive patients is collectively contributed to by the human immunodeficiency virus and antiretroviral-associated dyslipidaemia. In this study, we investigate the characterisation of the plasma lipid profiles of treated HIV patients and the relationship of 316 plasma lipid species across multiple lipid classes with the risk of future cardiovascular events in HIV-positive patients. In a retrospective case-control study, we analysed plasma lipid profiles of 113 subjects. Cases (n = 23) were HIV-positive individuals with a stored blood sample available 12 months prior to their diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD). They were age and sex matched to HIV-positive individuals without a diagnosis of CAD (n = 45) and with healthy HIV-negative volunteers (n = 45). Association of plasma lipid species and classes with HIV infection and cardiovascular risk in HIV were determined. In multiple logistic regression, we identified 83 lipids species and 7 lipid classes significantly associated with HIV infection and a further identified 74 lipid species and 8 lipid classes significantly associated with future cardiovascular events in HIV-positive subjects. Risk prediction models incorporating lipid species attained an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.78 (0.775, 0.785)) and outperformed all other tested markers and risk scores in the identification of HIV-positive subjects with increased risk of cardiovascular events. Our results demonstrate that HIV-positive patients have significant differences in their plasma lipid profiles compared with healthy HIV-negative controls and that numerous lipid species were significantly associated with elevated cardiovascular risk. This suggests a potential novel application for plasma lipids in cardiovascular risk screening of HIV-positive patients.

  11. Narrative review: Assessment of C-reactive protein in risk prediction for cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Lloyd-Jones, Donald M; Liu, Kiang; Tian, Lu; Greenland, Philip

    2006-07-04

    Some experts propose C-reactive protein (CRP) as a screening tool for prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Many epidemiologic studies show positive associations between elevated CRP levels and incident CVD. Assessment of the value of new prognostic tests, however, must rely on understanding of test characteristics rather than on associations measured by relative risks. In the case of CRP, test characteristics must be judged in the context of currently available CVD risk prediction algorithms. In this review of literature published before January 2006, the authors describe what is known about the additional utility of CRP in risk prediction. They find no definitive evidence that, for most individuals, CRP adds substantial predictive value above that provided by risk estimation using traditional risk factors for CVD. Use of CRP may add to risk estimation in a limited subset of individuals who are at intermediate predicted risk according to the Framingham risk score. The authors propose that many questions still must be addressed before CRP is incorporated into risk prediction algorithms and before universal screening with CRP can be recommended.

  12. Total and High Molecular Weight Adiponectin Levels and Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetic Patients

    PubMed Central

    Horáková, Dagmar; Azeem, Kateřina; Benešová, Radka; Pastucha, Dalibor; Horák, Vladimír; Dumbrovská, Lenka; Martínek, Arnošt; Novotný, Dalibor; Hobzová, Milada; Galuszková, Dana; Janout, Vladimír; Doněvská, Sandra; Vrbková, Jana; Kollárová, Helena

    2015-01-01

    The study aimed at assessing the potential use of lower total and HMW adiponectin levels for predicting cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Concentrations of total adiponectin or high molecular weight (HMW) adiponectin decrease in association with the development of metabolic dysfunction such as obesity, insulin resistance, or T2DM. Increased adiponectin levels are associated with a lower risk for coronary heart disease. A total of 551 individuals were assessed. The first group comprised metabolically healthy participants (143 females, and 126 males) and the second group were T2DM patients (164 females, and 118 males). Both total adiponectin and HMW adiponectin in diabetic patients were significantly lower when compared with the group of metabolically healthy individuals. There was a weak monotonic correlation between HMW adiponectin levels and triglycerides levels. Binary logistic regression analysis, gender adjusted, showed a higher cardiovascular risk in diabetic persons when both total adiponectin (OR = 1.700) and HMW adiponectin (OR = 2.785) levels were decreased. A decrease in total adiponectin levels as well as a decrease in its HMW adiponectin is associated with a higher cardiovascular risk in individuals with T2DM. This association suggests that adiponectin levels may be potentially used as an epidemiological marker for cardiovascular risk in diabetic patients. PMID:26074960

  13. Cardiovascular disease risk score prediction models for women and its applicability to Asians.

    PubMed

    Goh, Louise Gh; Dhaliwal, Satvinder S; Welborn, Timothy A; Thompson, Peter L; Maycock, Bruce R; Kerr, Deborah A; Lee, Andy H; Bertolatti, Dean; Clark, Karin M; Naheed, Rakhshanda; Coorey, Ranil; Della, Phillip R

    2014-01-01

    Although elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are associated with a higher risk of developing heart conditions across all ethnic groups, variations exist between groups in the distribution and association of risk factors, and also risk levels. This study assessed the 10-year predicted risk in a multiethnic cohort of women and compared the differences in risk between Asian and Caucasian women. Information on demographics, medical conditions and treatment, smoking behavior, dietary behavior, and exercise patterns were collected. Physical measurements were also taken. The 10-year risk was calculated using the Framingham model, SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation) risk chart for low risk and high risk regions, the general CVD, and simplified general CVD risk score models in 4,354 females aged 20-69 years with no heart disease, diabetes, or stroke at baseline from the third Australian Risk Factor Prevalence Study. Country of birth was used as a surrogate for ethnicity. Nonparametric statistics were used to compare risk levels between ethnic groups. Asian women generally had lower risk of CVD when compared to Caucasian women. The 10-year predicted risk was, however, similar between Asian and Australian women, for some models. These findings were consistent with Australian CVD prevalence. In summary, ethnicity needs to be incorporated into CVD risk assessment. Australian standards used to quantify risk and treat women could be applied to Asians in the interim. The SCORE risk chart for low-risk regions and Framingham risk score model for incidence are recommended. The inclusion of other relevant risk variables such as obesity, poor diet/nutrition, and low levels of physical activity may improve risk estimation.

  14. Performance of four current risk algorithms in predicting cardiovascular events in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis.

    PubMed

    Arts, E E A; Popa, C; Den Broeder, A A; Semb, A G; Toms, T; Kitas, G D; van Riel, P L; Fransen, J

    2015-04-01

    This study was undertaken to assess the predictive ability of 4 established cardiovascular (CV) risk models for the 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CV diseases in European patients with rheumatoid arthritis. Prospectively collected data from the Nijmegen early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) inception cohort was used. Discriminatory ability for CV risk prediction was estimated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Calibration was assessed by comparing the observed versus expected number of events using Hosmer-Lemeshov tests and calibration plots. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated for the cut-off values of 10% and 20% predicted risk. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.78-0.80, indicating moderate to good discrimination between patients with and without a CV event. The CV risk models Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), Framingham risk score (FRS) and Reynolds risk score (RRS) primarily underestimated CV risk at low and middle observed risk levels, and mostly overestimated CV risk at higher observed risk levels. The QRisk II primarily overestimated observed CV risk. For the 10% and 20% cut-off values used as indicators for CV preventive treatment, sensitivity ranged from 68-87% and 40-65%, respectively and specificity ranged from 55-76% and 77-88%, respectively. Depending on the model, up to 32% of observed CV events occurred in patients with RA who were classified as low risk (<10%) for CV disease. Established risk models generally underestimate (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation score, Framingham Risk Score, Reynolds risk score) or overestimate (QRisk II) CV risk in patients with RA. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  15. Low ankle-brachial index predicts cardiovascular risk after acute ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack.

    PubMed

    Busch, Markus A; Lutz, Katrin; Röhl, Jens-Eric; Neuner, Bruno; Masuhr, Florian

    2009-12-01

    A low ankle-brachial blood pressure index (ABI) is an established risk marker for cardiovascular disease and mortality in the general population, but little is known about its prognostic value in individuals with acute ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). An inception cohort of 204 patients with acute ischemic stroke or TIA was followed up for a mean of 2.3 years. At baseline, patients underwent ABI measurement and were assessed for risk factors, cardiovascular comorbidities, and cervical or intracranial artery stenosis. The association between low ABI (risk of the composite outcome of stroke, myocardial infarction, or death was examined by Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses. A low ABI was found in 63 patients (31%) and was associated with older age, current smoking, hypertension, peripheral arterial disease, and cervical or intracranial stenosis. During a total of 453.0 person-years of follow-up, 37 patients experienced outcome events (8.2% per person-year), with a higher outcome rate per person-year in patients with low ABI (12.8% vs 6.3%, P=0.03). In survival analysis adjusted for age and stroke etiology, patients with a low ABI had a 2 times higher risk of stroke, myocardial infarction, or death than those with a normal ABI (hazard ratio=2.2; 95% CI, 1.1 to 4.5). Additional adjustment for risk factors and cardiovascular comorbidities did not attenuate the association. A low ABI independently predicted subsequent cardiovascular risk and mortality in patients with acute stroke or TIA. ABI measurement may help to identify high-risk patients for targeted secondary stroke prevention.

  16. [Cardiovascular risk assessment and risk stratification- guided therapy: predict, prevent and individualize].

    PubMed

    Ural, Dilek

    2011-09-01

    Modern concept in primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) entails assessing the person's global risk and making the right management in accordance with these results. Correspondingly, 3 steps recommended for the prevention of CVD under risk guidance are: (a) risk assessment via a proper system like Framingham Risk Score, SCORE, QRISK, PROCAM; (b) decision-making in the proper management in terms of informing the patient about lifestyle changes that he or she can cope and drug selection; and (c) evaluation of treatment decision in terms of cost effectiveness. Although, a significant decline is observed in CVD morbidity and mortality, particularly in the western countries, we still are trying to approach to competent quality measures about management under CV risk guidance. This review summarizes the main challenges regarding risk stratification-guided management strategy in primary prevention of CVD.

  17. The PRIMROSE cardiovascular risk prediction models for people with severe mental illness

    PubMed Central

    Osborn, David PJ; Hardoon, Sarah; Omar, Rumana Z; Holt, Richard IG; King, Michael; Larsen, John; Marston, Louise; Morris, Richard W; Nazareth, Irwin; Walters, Kate; Petersen, Irene

    2015-01-01

    Importance People with Severe Mental Illness (SMI) including schizophrenia and bipolar disorder have excess cardiovascular disease (CVD). Risk prediction models, validated for the general population, may not accurately estimate cardiovascular risk in this group. Objectives To develop and validate a risk model exclusive to predicting CVD events in people with SMI, using established cardiovascular risk factors and additional variables. Design Prospective cohort and risk score development study. Setting UK Primary care Participants 38,824 people with a diagnosis of SMI (schizophrenia, bipolar disorder or other non-organic psychosis) aged 30-90 years. Median follow-up 5.6 years with 2,324 CVD events (6%). Main outcomes and measures Ten year risk of first cardiovascular event (myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, cerebrovascular accidents or major coronary surgery). Predictors included age, gender, height, weight, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, smoking, body mass index (BMI), lipid profile, social deprivation, SMI diagnosis, prescriptions of antidepressant , antipsychotics and reports of heavy alcohol use. Results We developed two risk models for people with SMI: The PRIMROSE BMI model and a lipid model. These mutually excluded lipids and BMI. From cross-validations, in terms of discrimination, for men, the PRIMROSE lipid model D statistic was 1.92 (1.80-2.03) and C statistic was 0.80 (0.76-0.83) compared to 1.74 (1.54-1.86) and 0.78 (0.75-0.82) for published Framingham risk scores; in women corresponding results were 1.87 (1.76-1.98) and 0.80 (0.76-0.83) for the PRIMROSE lipid model and 1.58 (1.48-1.68) and 0.76 (0.72-0.80) for Framingham. Discrimination statistics for the PRIMROSE BMI model were comparable to those for the PRIMROSE lipid model. Calibration plots suggested that both PRIMROSE models were superior to the Framingham models. Conclusion and relevance The PRIMROSE BMI and lipid CVD risk prediction models performed better in SMI than models which only

  18. Ambulatory blood pressure improves prediction of cardiovascular risk: implications for better antihypertensive management.

    PubMed

    Krakoff, Lawrence R

    2013-04-01

    Accurate measurement of arterial pressure is necessary for diagnosis of hypertension and for assessment of its therapy. The development and growing application of ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) furthers these goals. Use of ABPM has defined white coat hypertension (WCH) and masked hypertension (MH), important prognostic diagnoses. ABPM categorizes blood pressure in several ways that increase accuracy for diagnosis and prediction of cardiovascular risk. Measurements of blood pressure throughout the day, at night during sleep, during the morning surge, and, in some instances selected intervals can be especially valuable for both research and clinical management. ABPM is being explored for its value in measuring pulse pressure and a derived index of arterial stiffness. ABPM has also shown to be valuable for defining the effects of antihypertensive drugs therapy. Results of such studies are crucial for advancing antihypertensive management. This review will summarize the important and emerging role of ABPM in defining risk for cardiovascular disease.

  19. Prediction of cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis: performance of original and adapted SCORE algorithms.

    PubMed

    Arts, E E A; Popa, C D; Den Broeder, A A; Donders, R; Sandoo, A; Toms, T; Rollefstad, S; Ikdahl, E; Semb, A G; Kitas, G D; Van Riel, P L C M; Fransen, J

    2016-04-01

    Predictive performance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk calculators appears suboptimal in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A disease-specific CVD risk algorithm may improve CVD risk prediction in RA. The objectives of this study are to adapt the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm with determinants of CVD risk in RA and to assess the accuracy of CVD risk prediction calculated with the adapted SCORE algorithm. Data from the Nijmegen early RA inception cohort were used. The primary outcome was first CVD events. The SCORE algorithm was recalibrated by reweighing included traditional CVD risk factors and adapted by adding other potential predictors of CVD. Predictive performance of the recalibrated and adapted SCORE algorithms was assessed and the adapted SCORE was externally validated. Of the 1016 included patients with RA, 103 patients experienced a CVD event. Discriminatory ability was comparable across the original, recalibrated and adapted SCORE algorithms. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test results indicated that all three algorithms provided poor model fit (p<0.05) for the Nijmegen and external validation cohort. The adapted SCORE algorithm mainly improves CVD risk estimation in non-event cases and does not show a clear advantage in reclassifying patients with RA who develop CVD (event cases) into more appropriate risk groups. This study demonstrates for the first time that adaptations of the SCORE algorithm do not provide sufficient improvement in risk prediction of future CVD in RA to serve as an appropriate alternative to the original SCORE. Risk assessment using the original SCORE algorithm may underestimate CVD risk in patients with RA. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  20. Body composition indices and predicted cardiovascular disease risk profile among urban dwellers in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Su, Tin Tin; Amiri, Mohammadreza; Mohd Hairi, Farizah; Thangiah, Nithiah; Dahlui, Maznah; Majid, Hazreen Abdul

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to compare various body composition indices and their association with a predicted cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profile in an urban population in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in metropolitan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in 2012. Households were selected using a simple random-sampling method, and adult members were invited for medical screening. The Framingham Risk Scoring algorithm was used to predict CVD risk, which was then analyzed in association with body composition measurements, including waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, waist-height ratio, body fat percentage, and body mass index. Altogether, 882 individuals were included in our analyses. Indices that included waist-related measurements had the strongest association with CVD risk in both genders. After adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic variables, waist-related measurements retained the strongest correlations with predicted CVD risk in males. However, body mass index, waist-height ratio, and waist circumference had the strongest correlation with CVD risk in females. The waist-related indicators of abdominal obesity are important components of CVD risk profiles. As waist-related parameters can quickly and easily be measured, they should be routinely obtained in primary care settings and population health screens in order to assess future CVD risk profiles and design appropriate interventions.

  1. Cardiovascular risk prediction: a comparative study of Framingham and quantum neural network based approach

    PubMed Central

    Narain, Renu; Saxena, Sanjai; Goyal, Achal Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Currently cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the main cause of death worldwide. Disease risk estimates can be used as prognostic information and support for treating CVDs. The commonly used Framingham risk score (FRS) for CVD prediction is outdated for the modern population, so FRS may not be accurate enough. In this paper, a novel CVD prediction system based on machine learning is proposed. Methods This study has been conducted with the data of 689 patients showing symptoms of CVD. Furthermore, the dataset of 5,209 CVD patients of the famous Framingham study has been used for validation purposes. Each patient’s parameters have been analyzed by physicians in order to make a diagnosis. The proposed system uses the quantum neural network for machine learning. This system learns and recognizes the pattern of CVD. The proposed system has been experimentally evaluated and compared with FRS. Results During testing, patients’ data in combination with the doctors’ diagnosis (predictions) are used for evaluation and validation. The proposed system achieved 98.57% accuracy in predicting the CVD risk. The CVD risk predictions by the proposed system, using the dataset of the Framingham study, confirmed the potential risk of death, deaths which actually occurred and had been recorded as due to myocardial infarction and coronary heart disease in the dataset of the Framingham study. The accuracy of the proposed system is significantly higher than FRS and other existing approaches. Conclusion The proposed system will serve as an excellent tool for a medical practitioner in predicting the risk of CVD. This system will be serving as an aid to medical practitioners for planning better medication and treatment strategies. An early diagnosis may be effectively made by using this system. An overall accuracy of 98.57% has been achieved in predicting the risk level. The accuracy is considerably higher compared to the other existing approaches. Thus, this system must be used

  2. Prediction models for cardiovascular disease risk in the general population: systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Hooft, Lotty; Schuit, Ewoud; Debray, Thomas P A; Collins, Gary S; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Lassale, Camille M; Siontis, George C M; Chiocchia, Virginia; Roberts, Corran; Schlüssel, Michael Maia; Gerry, Stephen; Black, James A; Heus, Pauline; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Peelen, Linda M; Moons, Karel G M

    2016-01-01

    Objective To provide an overview of prediction models for risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population. Design Systematic review. Data sources Medline and Embase until June 2013. Eligibility criteria for study selection Studies describing the development or external validation of a multivariable model for predicting CVD risk in the general population. Results 9965 references were screened, of which 212 articles were included in the review, describing the development of 363 prediction models and 473 external validations. Most models were developed in Europe (n=167, 46%), predicted risk of fatal or non-fatal coronary heart disease (n=118, 33%) over a 10 year period (n=209, 58%). The most common predictors were smoking (n=325, 90%) and age (n=321, 88%), and most models were sex specific (n=250, 69%). Substantial heterogeneity in predictor and outcome definitions was observed between models, and important clinical and methodological information were often missing. The prediction horizon was not specified for 49 models (13%), and for 92 (25%) crucial information was missing to enable the model to be used for individual risk prediction. Only 132 developed models (36%) were externally validated and only 70 (19%) by independent investigators. Model performance was heterogeneous and measures such as discrimination and calibration were reported for only 65% and 58% of the external validations, respectively. Conclusions There is an excess of models predicting incident CVD in the general population. The usefulness of most of the models remains unclear owing to methodological shortcomings, incomplete presentation, and lack of external validation and model impact studies. Rather than developing yet another similar CVD risk prediction model, in this era of large datasets, future research should focus on externally validating and comparing head-to-head promising CVD risk models that already exist, on tailoring or even combining these models to local

  3. Improved cardiovascular risk prediction using nonparametric regression and electronic health record data.

    PubMed

    Kennedy, Edward H; Wiitala, Wyndy L; Hayward, Rodney A; Sussman, Jeremy B

    2013-03-01

    Use of the electronic health record (EHR) is expected to increase rapidly in the near future, yet little research exists on whether analyzing internal EHR data using flexible, adaptive statistical methods could improve clinical risk prediction. Extensive implementation of EHR in the Veterans Health Administration provides an opportunity for exploration. To compare the performance of various approaches for predicting risk of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular (CCV) death, using traditional risk predictors versus more comprehensive EHR data. Retrospective cohort study. We identified all Veterans Health Administration patients without recent CCV events treated at 12 facilities from 2003 to 2007, and predicted risk using the Framingham risk score, logistic regression, generalized additive modeling, and gradient tree boosting. The outcome was CCV-related death within 5 years. We assessed each method's predictive performance with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, plots of estimated risk, and reclassification tables, using cross-validation to penalize overfitting. Regression methods outperformed the Framingham risk score, even with the same predictors (AUC increased from 71% to 73% and calibration also improved). Even better performance was attained in models using additional EHR-derived predictor variables (AUC increased to 78% and net reclassification improvement was as large as 0.29). Nonparametric regression further improved calibration and discrimination compared with logistic regression. Despite the EHR lacking some risk factors and its imperfect data quality, health care systems may be able to substantially improve risk prediction for their patients by using internally developed EHR-derived models and flexible statistical methodology.

  4. Cardiovascular lifetime risk predicts incidence of coronary calcification in individuals with low short-term risk: the Dallas Heart Study.

    PubMed

    Paixao, Andre R M; Ayers, Colby R; Rohatgi, Anand; Das, Sandeep R; de Lemos, James A; Khera, Amit; Lloyd-Jones, Donald; Berry, Jarett D

    2014-11-25

    The absence of coronary artery calcium (CAC) in middle age is associated with very low short-term risk for coronary events. However, the long-term implications of a CAC score of 0 are uncertain, particularly among individuals with high cardiovascular lifetime risk. We sought to characterize the association between predicted lifetime risk and incident CAC among individuals with low short-term risk. We included 754 Dallas Heart Study participants with serial CAC scans (6.9 years apart) and both low short-term risk and baseline CAC=0. Lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease was estimated according to risk factor burden. Among this group, 365 individuals (48.4%) were at low lifetime risk and 389 (51.6%) at high lifetime risk. High lifetime risk was associated with higher annualized CAC incidence (4.2% versus 2.7%; P < 0.001). Similarly, mean follow-up CAC scores were higher among participants with high lifetime risk (7.8 versus 2.4 Agatston units). After adjustment for age, sex, and race, high lifetime risk remained independently associated with incident CAC (OR 1.60; 95% CI 1.12 to 2.27; P=0.01). When assessing risk factor burden at the follow-up visit, 66.7% of CAC incidence observed in the low lifetime risk group occurred among individuals reclassified to a higher short- or long-term risk category. Among individuals with low short-term risk and CAC scores of 0, high lifetime risk is associated with a higher incidence of CAC. These findings highlight the importance of lifetime risk even among individuals with very low short-term risk. © 2014 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  5. Cardiovascular Lifetime Risk Predicts Incidence of Coronary Calcification in Individuals With Low Short‐Term Risk: The Dallas Heart Study

    PubMed Central

    Paixao, Andre R. M.; Ayers, Colby R.; Rohatgi, Anand; Das, Sandeep R.; de Lemos, James A.; Khera, Amit; Lloyd‐Jones, Donald; Berry, Jarett D.

    2014-01-01

    Background The absence of coronary artery calcium (CAC) in middle age is associated with very low short‐term risk for coronary events. However, the long‐term implications of a CAC score of 0 are uncertain, particularly among individuals with high cardiovascular lifetime risk. We sought to characterize the association between predicted lifetime risk and incident CAC among individuals with low short‐term risk. Methods and Results We included 754 Dallas Heart Study participants with serial CAC scans (6.9 years apart) and both low short‐term risk and baseline CAC=0. Lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease was estimated according to risk factor burden. Among this group, 365 individuals (48.4%) were at low lifetime risk and 389 (51.6%) at high lifetime risk. High lifetime risk was associated with higher annualized CAC incidence (4.2% versus 2.7%; P < 0.001). Similarly, mean follow‐up CAC scores were higher among participants with high lifetime risk (7.8 versus 2.4 Agatston units). After adjustment for age, sex, and race, high lifetime risk remained independently associated with incident CAC (OR 1.60; 95% CI 1.12 to 2.27; P=0.01). When assessing risk factor burden at the follow‐up visit, 66.7% of CAC incidence observed in the low lifetime risk group occurred among individuals reclassified to a higher short‐ or long‐term risk category. Conclusion Among individuals with low short‐term risk and CAC scores of 0, high lifetime risk is associated with a higher incidence of CAC. These findings highlight the importance of lifetime risk even among individuals with very low short‐term risk. PMID:25424574

  6. [Cardiovascular risk stratification].

    PubMed

    Martínez Réding, Jesús

    2006-01-01

    In often cited statistic cardiovascular disease is the number 1 cause of death in the worldwide and not only in the developed world. This represents an aggressive identification and management of risk factors. With the many advances in our understanding and practices of risk factor management we hope to change this tendency predicted to be in 2020 the same. Now we know that exists major factor risk and others who predispose. The presence of major risk factors was associated with development of cardiovascular disease. The process of risk factor management is a multidisciplinary one, directly involving both the patient his doctor as well as many others, including nurses, other healthcare and family. The goal is preventing future cardiac events.

  7. Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease Risk among Low-Income Urban Dwellers in Metropolitan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

    PubMed Central

    Su, Tin Tin; Amiri, Mohammadreza; Mohd Hairi, Farizah; Thangiah, Nithiah; Majid, Hazreen Abdul

    2015-01-01

    We aimed to predict the ten-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among low-income urban dwellers of metropolitan Malaysia. Participants were selected from a cross-sectional survey conducted in Kuala Lumpur. To assess the 10-year CVD risk, we employed the Framingham risk scoring (FRS) models. Significant determinants of the ten-year CVD risk were identified using General Linear Model (GLM). Altogether 882 adults (≥30 years old with no CVD history) were randomly selected. The classic FRS model (figures in parentheses are from the modified model) revealed that 20.5% (21.8%) and 38.46% (38.9%) of respondents were at high and moderate risk of CVD. The GLM models identified the importance of education, occupation, and marital status in predicting the future CVD risk. Our study indicated that one out of five low-income urban dwellers has high chance of having CVD within ten years. Health care expenditure, other illness related costs and loss of productivity due to CVD would worsen the current situation of low-income urban population. As such, the public health professionals and policy makers should establish substantial effort to formulate the public health policy and community-based intervention to minimize the upcoming possible high mortality and morbidity due to CVD among the low-income urban dwellers. PMID:25821810

  8. Prediction of cardiovascular disease risk among low-income urban dwellers in metropolitan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Su, Tin Tin; Amiri, Mohammadreza; Mohd Hairi, Farizah; Thangiah, Nithiah; Bulgiba, Awang; Majid, Hazreen Abdul

    2015-01-01

    We aimed to predict the ten-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among low-income urban dwellers of metropolitan Malaysia. Participants were selected from a cross-sectional survey conducted in Kuala Lumpur. To assess the 10-year CVD risk, we employed the Framingham risk scoring (FRS) models. Significant determinants of the ten-year CVD risk were identified using General Linear Model (GLM). Altogether 882 adults (≥30 years old with no CVD history) were randomly selected. The classic FRS model (figures in parentheses are from the modified model) revealed that 20.5% (21.8%) and 38.46% (38.9%) of respondents were at high and moderate risk of CVD. The GLM models identified the importance of education, occupation, and marital status in predicting the future CVD risk. Our study indicated that one out of five low-income urban dwellers has high chance of having CVD within ten years. Health care expenditure, other illness related costs and loss of productivity due to CVD would worsen the current situation of low-income urban population. As such, the public health professionals and policy makers should establish substantial effort to formulate the public health policy and community-based intervention to minimize the upcoming possible high mortality and morbidity due to CVD among the low-income urban dwellers.

  9. Framingham Risk Score for Prediction of Cardiovascular Diseases: A Population-Based Study from Southern Europe

    PubMed Central

    Artigao-Rodenas, Luis M.; Carbayo-Herencia, Julio A.; Divisón-Garrote, Juan A.; Gil-Guillén, Vicente F.; Massó-Orozco, Javier; Simarro-Rueda, Marta; Molina-Escribano, Francisca; Sanchis, Carlos; Carrión-Valero, Lucinio; López de Coca, Enrique; Caldevilla, David; López-Abril, Juan; Carratalá-Munuera, Concepción; Lopez-Pineda, Adriana

    2013-01-01

    Background The question about what risk function should be used in primary prevention remains unanswered. The Framingham Study proposed a new algorithm based on three key ideas: use of the four risk factors with the most weight (cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking), prediction of overall cardiovascular diseases and incorporating the concept of vascular age. The objective of this study was to apply this new function in a cohort of the general non Anglo-Saxon population, with a 10-year follow-up to determine its validity. Methods The cohort was studied in 1992-94 and again in 2004-06. The sample comprised 959 randomly-selected persons, aged 30-74 years, who were representative of the population of Albacete, Spain. At the first examination cycle, needed data for the new function were collected and at the second examination, data on all events were recorded during the follow-up period. Discrimination was studied with ROC curves. Comparisons of prediction models and reality in tertiles (Hosmer-Lemeshow) were performed, and the individual survival functions were calculated. Results The mean risks for women and men, respectively, were 11.3% and 19.7% and the areas under the ROC curve were 0.789 (95%CI, 0.716-0.863) and 0.780 (95%CI, 0.713-0.847) (P<0.001, both). Cardiovascular disease events occurred in the top risk tertiles. Of note were the negative predictive values in both sexes, and a good specificity in women (85.6%) and sensitivity in men (79.1%) when their risk for cardiovascular disease was high. This model overestimates the risk in older women and in middle-aged men. The cumulative probability of individual survival by tertiles was significant in both sexes (P<0.001). Conclusions The results support the proposal for “reclassification” of Framingham. This study, with a few exceptions, passed the test of discrimination and calibration in a random sample of the general population from southern Europe. PMID:24039972

  10. A Risk Score to Predict Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in an Elderly Spanish Mediterranean Population at High Cardiovascular Risk

    PubMed Central

    Guasch-Ferré, Marta; Bulló, Mònica; Costa, Bernardo; Martínez-Gonzalez, Miguel Ángel; Ibarrola-Jurado, Núria; Estruch, Ramon; Barrio, Francisco; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi

    2012-01-01

    Introduction To develop and test a diabetes risk score to predict incident diabetes in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. Materials and Methods A diabetes risk score was derived from a subset of 1381 nondiabetic individuals from three centres of the PREDIMED study (derivation sample). Multivariate Cox regression model ß-coefficients were used to weigh each risk factor. PREDIMED-personal Score included body-mass-index, smoking status, family history of type 2 diabetes, alcohol consumption and hypertension as categorical variables; PREDIMED-clinical Score included also high blood glucose. We tested the predictive capability of these scores in the DE-PLAN-CAT cohort (validation sample). The discrimination of Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC), German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) and our scores was assessed with the area under curve (AUC). Results The PREDIMED-clinical Score varied from 0 to 14 points. In the subset of the PREDIMED study, 155 individuals developed diabetes during the 4.75-years follow-up. The PREDIMED-clinical score at a cutoff of ≥6 had sensitivity of 72.2%, and specificity of 72.5%, whereas AUC was 0.78. The AUC of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was 0.66 in the validation sample (sensitivity = 85.4%; specificity = 26.6%), and was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and the GDRS in both the derivation and validation samples. Discussion We identified classical risk factors for diabetes and developed the PREDIMED-clinical Score to determine those individuals at high risk of developing diabetes in elderly individuals at high cardiovascular risk. The predictive capability of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and GDRS, and also used fewer items in the questionnaire. PMID:22442692

  11. An exploratory decision tree analysis to predict cardiovascular disease risk in African American women.

    PubMed

    Leach, Heather J; O'Connor, Daniel P; Simpson, Richard J; Rifai, Hanadi S; Mama, Scherezade K; Lee, Rebecca E

    2016-04-01

    African American (AA) women are at greater risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) compared to White women, which can be attributed to disparities in risk factors. The built environment may contribute to improving CVD risk factors by increasing physical activity (PA). This study used recursive partitioning, a multivariate decision tree risk classification approach, to determine which built environment characteristics contributed to the classification of AA women as having 4 or more CVD risk factors at optimal levels. Recursive partitioning has the ability to detect interactions and does not have sample size limitations to detect effects. The Classification and Regression Trees (CR&T) growing method was used to group participants as having 4 or more versus 3 or fewer risk factors at optimal levels. Risk factors were smoking, body mass index (BMI), PA, healthy diet, cholesterol, glucose, and blood pressure. Built environment predictors were presence and quality of neighborhood PA resources (PARs), walkability, traffic safety, and crime. Participants (N = 30, mean age of 54.1 ± 7.5) all had at least 1 risk factor at the optimal level, none had all 7, and 66.7% had 4 or more risk factors at optimal levels. The CR&T identified participants with few, low-quality neighborhood PARs and who were older than 55 as least likely to have 4 or more CVD risk factors at optimal levels. Being younger than 55 years old and having many, high-quality neighborhood PARs may predict lower risk for CVD in AA women. Results should be used in future studies with larger sample sizes to inform logistic regression models. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Renal scintigraphy predicts global cardiovascular risk in hypertensive subjects with normal serum creatinine levels.

    PubMed

    Mazza, Alberto; Rampin, Lucia; Montemurro, Domenico; Schiavon, Laura; Zuin, Marco; Grassetto, Gaia; Chondrogiannis, Sotirios; Al-Nahhas, Adil; Ramazzina, Emilio; Rubello, Domenico

    2011-12-01

    BACKGROUND. This cross-sectional study investigates the role of renal scintigraphy on cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification in normoalbuminuric, non-diabetic hypertensive subjects (HTs) free from CV disease and renal dysfunction. METHODS. In 200 HTs aged 55-75 years, glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was measured by technetium-99m-diethylene triamine pentacetic acid clearance during renal scintigraphy. Stage III chronic kidney disease (CKD) was defined as GFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m(2). For comparing the impact of different methods for CKD diagnosis on CV risk stratification, CKD was also considered as GFR estimated by the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation and Cockcroft-Gault's formula. Target organ damage (TOD) was assessed by echocardiography and carotid ultrasonography. Gender-specific odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals for CKD were derived from a multiple stepwise logistic regression analysis. Global CV risk was stratified according to routine examinations, TOD and CKD. RESULTS. In 38% of cases, an unknown stage III CKD was found. Independent of age, CKD was predicted by history of hypertension (OR = 1.69, p = 0.0001), albuminuria (OR = 1.25, p = 0.0001), smoking (OR = 1.85, p = 0.028) and pulse pressure (OR = 1.21, p = 0.019) in men only. Men had an increased risk of CKD (OR = 2.62, p = 0.002) in comparison with women. Prevalence of TOD was significantly higher only in HTs having CKD diagnosed by renal scintigraphy; TOD and CKD assessment added to classic risk factors modified the CV risk stratification from low-moderate to high and very high. CONCLUSIONS. Renal scintigraphy is an important aid in risk stratification and should be performed in HTs aged >55 years. Pulse pressure was the main blood pressure component that predicted the risk of stage III CKD.

  13. High-sensitivity troponin assay improves prediction of cardiovascular risk in patients with cerebral ischaemia

    PubMed Central

    Stahrenberg, Raoul; Niehaus, Cord-Friedrich; Edelmann, Frank; Mende, Meinhard; Wohlfahrt, Janin; Wasser, Katrin; Seegers, Joachim; Hasenfuß, Gerd; Gröschel, Klaus; Wachter, Rolf

    2013-01-01

    Background and purpose Clinical scores are recommended for predicting cardiovascular risk in patients with cerebral ischaemia to inform secondary prevention. Blood biomarkers may improve prediction beyond clinical scores. Methods Within the observational Find-AF trial (ISRCTN46104198), 197 patients >18 years of age with cerebral ischaemia and without atrial fibrillation had blood sampled at baseline. The predictive value of five biomarkers for a combined vascular endpoint (acute coronary syndrome, stroke, cardiovascular death) and all-cause mortality was determined, alone and in addition to the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS), Stroke Prognostic Instrument 2 (SPI-2) and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIH-SS). Results There were 23 vascular events (11.7%) and 13 deaths (6.6%) to 1 year follow-up. In multivariate analyses of all markers, only high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTropT) remained independently predictive for vascular events (p=0.045) and all-cause mortality (p=0.004). hsTropT was higher in patients with a vascular event (median 12.7 ng/ml vs 5.1 ng/ml), and patients with hsTropT above the median of 6.15 ng/ml had vascular events more frequently (HR 3.86, p=0.008). For prediction of vascular events as well as all-cause mortality, hsTropT significantly improved multivariate Cox regression models with ESRS, SPI-2 or NIH-SS. The c-statistic increased non-significantly from 0.695 (ESRS) or 0.710 (hsTropT) to 0.747 (ESRS+hsTropT) and from 0.699 (SPI-2) to 0.763 (SPI-2+hsTropT). No patient with a low-risk ESRS and an hsTropT below the median had a vascular event or died. Conclusions hsTropT predicts vascular events and all-cause mortality in patients with acute cerebral ischaemia and improves prediction beyond established clinical scores. PMID:23355808

  14. Evaluation of the Pooled Cohort Equations for Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk in a Contemporary Prospective Cohort.

    PubMed

    Emdin, Connor A; Khera, Amit V; Natarajan, Pradeep; Klarin, Derek; Baber, Usman; Mehran, Roxana; Rader, Daniel J; Fuster, Valentin; Kathiresan, Sekar

    2017-03-15

    Most guidelines suggest a baseline risk assessment to guide atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) prevention strategies. The American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs) is one tool to assess baseline risk; however, the accuracy of this tool has been called into question. We aimed to examine the calibration and discrimination of the PCEs in the BioImage study, a contemporary multiethnic cohort of asymptomatic adults enrolled from 2008 to 2009 in the Humana Health System in Chicago, Illinois, and Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Our primary end point was hard ASCVD, defined as cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. A total of 3,635 adults who were not on lipid-lowering therapy at baseline were followed for a maximum of 4.6 years. The mean age was 68.6 years; 2000 (55%) participants were women and 935 patients reported being of non-white race (26%). Although 74 ASCVD events were observed over a median follow-up of 2.7 years, 198 events were predicted by the PCEs. The observed event rate was 7.9 per 1,000 participant-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.1 to 9.8), whereas the predicted rate by the PCEs was 21 per 1,000 participant-years (95% CI 20.7 to 21.8). This represents an overestimation of 167% (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square = 173; p <0.001). With regard to discrimination, the C-statistic of the PCEs was 0.65 (CI 0.58 to 0.71). In an analysis restricted to 3,080 participants without diabetes mellitus and with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol between 70 and 189 mg/dl, the PCEs similarly overestimated risk by 181% (152 predicted events vs 54 observed events; p <0.001). The PCEs substantially overestimate ASCVD risk in this middle-aged adult insured population. Refinement of existing risk prediction functions may be warranted.

  15. Development and validation of an ankle brachial index risk model for the prediction of cardiovascular events

    PubMed Central

    Fowkes, FGR; Murray, GD; Butcher, I; Folsom, AR; Hirsch, AT; Couper, DJ; DeBacker, G; Kornitzer, M; Newman, AB; Sutton-Tyrrell, KC; Cushman, M; Lee, AJ; Price, JF; D’Agostino, RB; Murabito, JM; Norman, PE; Masaki, KH; Bouter, LM; Heine, RJ; Stehouwer, CDA; McDermott, MM; Stoffers, HEJH; Knottnerus, JA; Ogren, M; Hedblad, B; Koenig, W; Meisinger, C; Cauley, JA; Franco, OH; Hunink, MGM; Hofman, A; Witteman, JC; Criqui, MH; Langer, RD; Hiatt, WR; Hamman, RF

    2015-01-01

    Background The ankle brachial index (ABI) is related to risk of cardiovascular events independent of the Framingham risk score (FRS). The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a risk model for cardiovascular events incorporating the ABI and FRS. Design An analysis of participant data from 18 cohorts in which 24,375 men and 20,377 women free of coronary heart disease had ABI measured and were followed up for events. Methods Subjects were divided into a development and internal validation dataset and an external validation dataset. Two models, comprising FRS and FRS + ABI, were fitted for the primary outcome of major coronary events. Results In predicting events in the external validation dataset, C-index for the FRS was 0.672 (95% CI 0.599 to 0.737) in men and 0.578 (95% CI 0.492 to 0.661) in women. The FRS + ABI led to a small increase in C-index in men to 0.685 (95% CI 0.612 to 0.749) and large increase in women to 0.690 (95% CI 0.605 to 0.764) with net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 4.3% (95% CI 0.0 to 7.6%, p = 0.050) and 9.6% (95% CI 6.1 to 16.4%, p < 0.001), respectively. Restricting the FRS + ABI model to those with FRS intermediate 10-year risk of 10 to 19% resulted in higher NRI of 15.9% (95% CI 6.1 to 20.6%, p < 0.001) in men and 23.3% (95% CI 13.8 to 62.5%, p = 0.002) in women. However, incorporating ABI in an improved newly fitted risk factor model had a nonsignificant effect: NRI 2.0% (95% CI 2.3 to 4.2%, p = 0.567) in men and 1.1% (95% CI 1.9 to 4.0%, p = 0.483) in women. Conclusions An ABI risk model may improve prediction especially in individuals at intermediate risk and when performance of the base risk factor model is modest. PMID:24367001

  16. [Is stress cardiovascular magnetic resonance really useful to detect ischemia and predict events in patients with different cardiovascular risk profile?

    PubMed

    Esteban-Fernández, Alberto; Coma-Canella, Isabel; Bastarrika, Gorka; Barba-Cosials, Joaquín; Azcárate-Agüero, Pedro M

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic usefulness of stress cardiovascular magnetic resonance (stress CMR) in patients with different cardiovascular risk profile and to assess if the degree of hypoperfusion is important to guide clinical decisions. We included patients submitted to adenosine stress CMR to rule out myocardial ischemia. We evaluated its diagnostic accuracy with likelihood ratio (LR) and its prognostic value with survival curves and a Cox regression model. 295 patients were studied. The positive LR was 3.40 and the negative one 0.47. The maximal usefulness of the test was found in patients without previous ischemic cardiomyopathy (positive LR 4.85), patients with atypical chest pain (positive LR 8.56), patients with low or intermediate cardiovascular risk (positive LR 3.87) and those with moderate or severe hypoperfusion (positive LR 8.63). Sixty cardiovascular major events were registered. The best survival prognosis was found in patients with a negative result (p=0.001) or mild hypoperfusion (p=0.038). In the multivariate analysis, a moderate or severe hypoperfusion increased cardiovascular event probability (HR=2.2; IC 95% 1.26-3.92), with no differences between a mild positive and a negative result (HR=0.93; IC 95% 0.38-2.28). Stress CMR was specially useful in patients with low or intermediate cardiovascular risk, patients with atypical chest pain, patients without previous ischemic cardiomyopathy and those with moderate or severe hypoperfusion. Hypoperfusion degree was the main issue factor to guide clinical decisions. Copyright © 2016 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

  17. Accuracy of Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Varies by Neighborhood Socioeconomic Position: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Dalton, Jarrod E; Perzynski, Adam T; Zidar, David A; Rothberg, Michael B; Coulton, Claudia J; Milinovich, Alex T; Einstadter, Douglas; Karichu, James K; Dawson, Neal V

    2017-10-03

    Inequality in health outcomes in relation to Americans' socioeconomic position is rising. First, to evaluate the spatial relationship between neighborhood disadvantage and major atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD)-related events; second, to evaluate the relative extent to which neighborhood disadvantage and physiologic risk account for neighborhood-level variation in ASCVD event rates. Observational cohort analysis of geocoded longitudinal electronic health records. A single academic health center and surrounding neighborhoods in northeastern Ohio. 109 793 patients from the Cleveland Clinic Health System (CCHS) who had an outpatient lipid panel drawn between 2007 and 2010. The date of the first qualifying lipid panel served as the study baseline. Time from baseline to the first occurrence of a major ASCVD event (myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death) within 5 years, modeled as a function of a locally derived neighborhood disadvantage index (NDI) and the predicted 5-year ASCVD event rate from the Pooled Cohort Equations Risk Model (PCERM) of the American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association. Outcome data were censored if no CCHS encounters occurred for 2 consecutive years or when state death data were no longer available (that is, from 2014 onward). The PCERM systematically underpredicted ASCVD event risk among patients from disadvantaged communities. Model discrimination was poorer among these patients (concordance index [C], 0.70 [95% CI, 0.67 to 0.74]) than those from the most affluent communities (C, 0.80 [CI, 0.78 to 0.81]). The NDI alone accounted for 32.0% of census tract-level variation in ASCVD event rates, compared with 10.0% accounted for by the PCERM. Patients from affluent communities were overrepresented. Outcomes of patients who received treatment for cardiovascular disease at Cleveland Clinic were assumed to be independent of whether the patients came from a disadvantaged or an affluent neighborhood

  18. New algorithm of mortality risk prediction for cardiovascular patients admitted in intensive care unit

    PubMed Central

    Moridani, Mohammad Karimi; Setarehdan, Seyed Kamaledin; Nasrabadi, Ali Motie; Hajinasrollah, Esmaeil

    2015-01-01

    Objective: Recognizing and managing of admitted patients in intensive care unit (ICU) with high risk of mortality is important for maximizing the patient’s outcomes and minimizing the costs. This study is based on linear and nonlinear analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) to design a classifier for mortality prediction of cardio vascular patients admitted to ICU. Methods: In this study we evaluated 90 cardiovascular ICU patients (45 males and 45 females). Linear and nonlinear features of HRV include SDNN, NN50, low frequency (LF), high frequency (HF), correlation dimension, approximate entropy; detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and Poincaré plot were analyzed. Paired sample t-test was used for statistical comparison. Finally, we fed these features to the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) to find a robust classification method to classify the patients with low risk and high risk of death. Results: Almost all HRV features measuring heart rate complexity were significantly decreased in the episode of half-hour before death. The results generated based on SVM and MLP classifiers show that SVM classifier is enable to distinguish high and low risk episodes with the total classification sensitivity, specificity, positive productivity and accuracy rate of 97.3%, 98.1%, 92.5% and 99.3%, respectively. Conclusions: The results of the current study suggest that nonlinear features of the HRV signals could be show nonlinear dynamics. PMID:26309114

  19. Estimation of the cardiovascular risk using World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk prediction charts in a rural population of South India

    PubMed Central

    Ghorpade, Arun Gangadhar; Shrivastava, Saurabh RamBihariLal; Kar, Sitanshu Sekhar; Sarkar, Sonali; Majgi, Sumanth Mallikarjuna; Roy, Gautam

    2015-01-01

    Background: World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) charts have been employed to predict the risk of cardiovascular outcome in heterogeneous settings. The aim of this research is to assess the prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk factors and to estimate the cardiovascular risk among adults aged >40 years, utilizing the risk charts alone, and by the addition of other parameters. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed in two of the villages availing health services of a medical college. Overall 570 subjects completed the assessment. The desired information was obtained using a pre-tested questionnaire and participants were also subjected to anthropometric measurements and laboratory investigations. The WHO/ISH risk prediction charts for the South-East Asian region was used to assess the cardiovascular risk among the study participants. Results: The study covered 570 adults aged above 40 years. The mean age of the subjects was 54.2 (±11.1) years and 53.3% subjects were women. Seventeen percent of the participants had moderate to high risk for the occurrence of cardiovascular events by using WHO/ISH risk prediction charts. In addition, CVD risk factors like smoking, alcohol, low High-Density Lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were found in 32%, 53%, 56.3%, and 61.5% study participants, respectively. Conclusion: Categorizing people as low (<10%)/moderate (10%-20%)/high (>20%) risk is one of the crucial steps to mitigate the magnitude of cardiovascular fatal/non-fatal outcome. This cross-sectional study indicates that there is a high burden of CVD risk in the rural Pondicherry as assessed by WHO/ISH risk prediction charts. Use of WHO/ISH charts is easy and inexpensive screening tool in predicting the cardiovascular event PMID:26340393

  20. Dynamic prediction model and risk assessment chart for cardiovascular disease based on on-treatment blood pressure and baseline risk factors.

    PubMed

    Teramukai, Satoshi; Okuda, Yasuyuki; Miyazaki, Shigeru; Kawamori, Ryuzo; Shirayama, Masayuki; Teramoto, Tamio

    2016-02-01

    For patients with hypertension, an individual risk prediction tool for cardiovascular disease based on on-treatment blood pressure is needed and would be useful. The objective of this study was to establish a 3-year risk prediction model for cardiovascular disease based on data from 13 052 patients with no history of cardiovascular disease in the Olmesartan Mega study to determine the relationship between Cardiovascular Endpoints and Blood Pressure Goal Achievement study. To develop dynamic prediction models including on-treatment blood pressure, a Cox proportional hazard model using the sliding landmarking method with three landmark points (6, 12 and 18 months from baseline) was used. The prediction model included blood pressure (<130/85 mm Hg, ⩾130/85  to <140/90 mm Hg, ⩾140/90 to <160/100 mm Hg and ⩾160/100 mm Hg) as a time-dependent covariate and well-known baseline risk factors (sex, age, smoking, family history of coronary artery disease and diabetes) as covariates. The 3-year risk assessment chart was constructed using the combination of all risk factors in the prediction model, and six different colors were displayed on each chart corresponding to the predicted probability of cardiovascular disease. Judging from the chart, if an elderly man with diabetes and other risk factors had a blood pressure of <130/85 mm Hg at 6 months, the risk of cardiovascular disease would be 8.0%, whereas the risk would be 8.6% if he had a blood pressure of ⩾130/85 to <140/90 mm Hg. The risk assessment chart developed from the large-scale observational study data would help physicians to more easily assess the cardiovascular disease risk for hypertensive patients on antihypertensive treatments.

  1. Dietary Patterns Are Associated with Predicted Cardiovascular Disease Risk in an Urban Mexican Adult Population.

    PubMed

    Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar; Tucker, Katherine L; Flores, Mario; Barquera, Simón; Salmerón, Jorge

    2016-01-01

    Dietary patterns may predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk more accurately than does consumption of specific nutrients or foods. We evaluated the association between Mexican adults' dietary patterns and development of a >10% risk of 10-y CVD (using the Framingham risk score) over 7 y of follow-up. This prospective cohort study included 1196 men and women aged 20-80 y with a 10-y predicted risk <10% and without a CVD diagnosis at baseline in 2004-2007. Data on sociodemographic, lifestyle, and medical history factors were collected with a self-administered questionnaire. Dietary intake was evaluated by using a semiquantitative food-frequency questionnaire. The relations between dietary patterns and predicted CVD were analyzed by using pooled logistic regression models. With the use of factor analysis, we identified 3 major dietary patterns in participants' dietary data. The "prudent" pattern was characterized by high positive loadings for the consumption of fresh fruit, vegetables, and whole grains. The "meat/fish" pattern showed positive loadings for the consumption of red meat, processed meat, eggs, fats, fish, and poultry. Finally, the "refined foods" pattern featured positive loadings for corn tortillas, refined grains, soft drinks, and alcohol. After adjustment for potential confounders, compared with participants in the lowest quintile of the prudent pattern, those in the highest quintile had a lower RR of 10-y CVD (RR: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.20, 0.79; P-trend = 0.006). In contrast, participants in the highest quintile of the refined-foods pattern had a greater risk of elevated 10-y CVD (RR: 2.98; 95% CI: 1.46, 6.10; P-trend = 0.020) than did those in the lowest quintile. Finally, the meat/fish dietary pattern was not significantly associated with 10-y CVD. Our data suggest that the prudent pattern is associated with a reduced risk of 10-y CVD, whereas the refined-foods pattern may increase 10-y CVD in Mexican adults. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

  2. Development and validation of QRISK3 risk prediction algorithms to estimate future risk of cardiovascular disease: prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol; Brindle, Peter

    2017-05-23

    Objectives To develop and validate updated QRISK3 prediction algorithms to estimate the 10 year risk of cardiovascular disease in women and men accounting for potential new risk factors.Design Prospective open cohort study.Setting General practices in England providing data for the QResearch database.Participants 1309 QResearch general practices in England: 981 practices were used to develop the scores and a separate set of 328 practices were used to validate the scores. 7.89 million patients aged 25-84 years were in the derivation cohort and 2.67 million patients in the validation cohort. Patients were free of cardiovascular disease and not prescribed statins at baseline.Methods Cox proportional hazards models in the derivation cohort to derive separate risk equations in men and women for evaluation at 10 years. Risk factors considered included those already in QRISK2 (age, ethnicity, deprivation, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, total cholesterol: high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, smoking, family history of coronary heart disease in a first degree relative aged less than 60 years, type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, treated hypertension, rheumatoid arthritis, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease (stage 4 or 5)) and new risk factors (chronic kidney disease (stage 3, 4, or 5), a measure of systolic blood pressure variability (standard deviation of repeated measures), migraine, corticosteroids, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), atypical antipsychotics, severe mental illness, and HIV/AIDs). We also considered erectile dysfunction diagnosis or treatment in men. Measures of calibration and discrimination were determined in the validation cohort for men and women separately and for individual subgroups by age group, ethnicity, and baseline disease status.Main outcome measures Incident cardiovascular disease recorded on any of the following three linked data sources: general practice, mortality, or hospital admission records.Results 363

  3. Implications of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment Using the WHO/ISH Risk Prediction Charts in Rural India

    PubMed Central

    Raghu, Arvind; Praveen, Devarsetty; Peiris, David; Tarassenko, Lionel; Clifford, Gari

    2015-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in India is currently assessed using the World Health Organization/International Society for Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk prediction charts since no population-specific models exist. The WHO/ISH risk prediction charts have two versions—one with total cholesterol as a predictor (the high information (HI) model) and the other without (the low information (LI) model). However, information on the WHO/ISH risk prediction charts including guidance on which version to use and when, as well as relative performance of the LI and HI models, is limited. This article aims to, firstly, quantify the relative performance of the LI and HI WHO/ISH risk prediction (for WHO-South East Asian Region D) using data from rural India. Secondly, we propose a pre-screening (simplified) point-of-care (POC) test to identify patients who are likely to benefit from a total cholesterol (TC) test, and subsequently when the LI model is preferential to HI model. Analysis was performed using cross-sectional data from rural Andhra Pradesh collected in 2005 with recorded blood cholesterol measurements (N = 1066). CVD risk was computed using both LI and HI models, and high risk individuals who needed treatment(THR) were subsequently identified based on clinical guidelines. Model development for the POC assessment of a TC test was performed through three machine learning techniques: Support Vector Machine (SVM), Regularised Logistic Regression (RLR), and Random Forests (RF) along with a feature selection process. Disagreement in CVD risk predicted by LI and HI WHO/ISH models was 14.5% (n = 155; p<0.01) overall and comprised 36 clinically relevant THR patients (31% of patients identified as THR by using either model). Using two patient-specific parameters (age, systolic blood pressure), our POC assessment can pre-determine the benefit of TC testing and choose the appropriate risk model (out-of-sample AUCs:RF-0.85,SVM-0.84,RLR:0.82 and maximum sensitivity-98%). The

  4. Implications of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment Using the WHO/ISH Risk Prediction Charts in Rural India.

    PubMed

    Raghu, Arvind; Praveen, Devarsetty; Peiris, David; Tarassenko, Lionel; Clifford, Gari

    2015-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in India is currently assessed using the World Health Organization/International Society for Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk prediction charts since no population-specific models exist. The WHO/ISH risk prediction charts have two versions-one with total cholesterol as a predictor (the high information (HI) model) and the other without (the low information (LI) model). However, information on the WHO/ISH risk prediction charts including guidance on which version to use and when, as well as relative performance of the LI and HI models, is limited. This article aims to, firstly, quantify the relative performance of the LI and HI WHO/ISH risk prediction (for WHO-South East Asian Region D) using data from rural India. Secondly, we propose a pre-screening (simplified) point-of-care (POC) test to identify patients who are likely to benefit from a total cholesterol (TC) test, and subsequently when the LI model is preferential to HI model. Analysis was performed using cross-sectional data from rural Andhra Pradesh collected in 2005 with recorded blood cholesterol measurements (N = 1066). CVD risk was computed using both LI and HI models, and high risk individuals who needed treatment(THR) were subsequently identified based on clinical guidelines. Model development for the POC assessment of a TC test was performed through three machine learning techniques: Support Vector Machine (SVM), Regularised Logistic Regression (RLR), and Random Forests (RF) along with a feature selection process. Disagreement in CVD risk predicted by LI and HI WHO/ISH models was 14.5% (n = 155; p<0.01) overall and comprised 36 clinically relevant THR patients (31% of patients identified as THR by using either model). Using two patient-specific parameters (age, systolic blood pressure), our POC assessment can pre-determine the benefit of TC testing and choose the appropriate risk model (out-of-sample AUCs:RF-0.85,SVM-0.84,RLR:0.82 and maximum sensitivity-98%). The

  5. A method to construct a points system to predict cardiovascular disease considering repeated measures of risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Carbayo-Herencia, Julio Antonio; Vigo, Maria Isabel; Gil-Guillén, Vicente Francisco

    2016-01-01

    Current predictive models for cardiovascular disease based on points systems use the baseline situation of the risk factors as independent variables. These models do not take into account the variability of the risk factors over time. Predictive models for other types of disease also exist that do consider the temporal variability of a single biological marker in addition to the baseline variables. However, due to their complexity these other models are not used in daily clinical practice. Bearing in mind the clinical relevance of these issues and that cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death worldwide we show the properties and viability of a new methodological alternative for constructing cardiovascular risk scores to make predictions of cardiovascular disease with repeated measures of the risk factors and retaining the simplicity of the points systems so often used in clinical practice (construction, statistical validation by simulation and explanation of potential utilization). We have also applied the system clinically upon a set of simulated data solely to help readers understand the procedure constructed. PMID:26893963

  6. Identifying Risk Factors for the Prediction of Hospital Readmission among Older Persons with Cardiovascular Disease.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Middleton, Renee Annette

    Older persons (55 years and older) with cardiovascular disease are at increased risk for hospital readmission when compared to other subgroups of our population. This issue presents an economic problem, a concern for the quality and type of care provided, and an urgent need to implement innovative strategies designed to reduce the rising cost of…

  7. Risk Prediction of Cardiovascular Complications in Pregnant Women With Heart Disease

    PubMed Central

    Martins, Luciana Carvalho; Freire, Claudia Maria Vilas; Capuruçu, Carolina Andrade Bragança; Nunes, Maria do Carmo Pereira; Rezende, Cezar Alencar de Lima

    2016-01-01

    Background Heart disease in pregnancy is the leading cause of non- obstetric maternal death. Few Brazilian studies have assessed the impact of heart disease during pregnancy. Objective To determine the risk factors associated with cardiovascular and neonatal complications. Methods We evaluated 132 pregnant women with heart disease at a High-Risk Pregnancy outpatient clinic, from January 2005 to July 2010. Variables that could influence the maternal-fetal outcome were selected: age, parity, smoking, etiology and severity of the disease, previous cardiac complications, cyanosis, New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class > II, left ventricular dysfunction/obstruction, arrhythmia, drug treatment change, time of prenatal care beginning and number of prenatal visits. The maternal-fetal risk index, Cardiac Disease in Pregnancy (CARPREG), was retrospectively calculated at the beginning of prenatal care, and patients were stratified in its three risk categories. Results Rheumatic heart disease was the most prevalent (62.12%). The most frequent complications were heart failure (11.36%) and arrhythmias (6.82%). Factors associated with cardiovascular complications on multivariate analysis were: drug treatment change (p = 0.009), previous cardiac complications (p = 0.013) and NYHA class III on the first prenatal visit (p = 0.041). The cardiovascular complication rates were 15.22% in CARPREG 0, 16.42% in CARPREG 1, and 42.11% in CARPREG > 1, differing from those estimated by the original index: 5%, 27% and 75%, respectively. This sample had 26.36% of prematurity. Conclusion The cardiovascular complication risk factors in this population were drug treatment change, previous cardiac complications and NYHA class III at the beginning of prenatal care. The CARPREG index used in this sample composed mainly of patients with rheumatic heart disease overestimated the number of events in pregnant women classified as CARPREG 1 and > 1, and underestimated it in low-risk patients

  8. Risk Prediction of Cardiovascular Complications in Pregnant Women With Heart Disease.

    PubMed

    Martins, Luciana Carvalho; Freire, Claudia Maria Vilas; Capuruçu, Carolina Andrade Bragança; Nunes, Maria do Carmo Pereira; Rezende, Cezar Alencar de Lima

    2016-04-01

    Heart disease in pregnancy is the leading cause of non- obstetric maternal death. Few Brazilian studies have assessed the impact of heart disease during pregnancy. To determine the risk factors associated with cardiovascular and neonatal complications. We evaluated 132 pregnant women with heart disease at a High-Risk Pregnancy outpatient clinic, from January 2005 to July 2010. Variables that could influence the maternal-fetal outcome were selected: age, parity, smoking, etiology and severity of the disease, previous cardiac complications, cyanosis, New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class > II, left ventricular dysfunction/obstruction, arrhythmia, drug treatment change, time of prenatal care beginning and number of prenatal visits. The maternal-fetal risk index, Cardiac Disease in Pregnancy (CARPREG), was retrospectively calculated at the beginning of prenatal care, and patients were stratified in its three risk categories. Rheumatic heart disease was the most prevalent (62.12%). The most frequent complications were heart failure (11.36%) and arrhythmias (6.82%). Factors associated with cardiovascular complications on multivariate analysis were: drug treatment change (p = 0.009), previous cardiac complications (p = 0.013) and NYHA class III on the first prenatal visit (p = 0.041). The cardiovascular complication rates were 15.22% in CARPREG 0, 16.42% in CARPREG 1, and 42.11% in CARPREG > 1, differing from those estimated by the original index: 5%, 27% and 75%, respectively. This sample had 26.36% of prematurity. The cardiovascular complication risk factors in this population were drug treatment change, previous cardiac complications and NYHA class III at the beginning of prenatal care. The CARPREG index used in this sample composed mainly of patients with rheumatic heart disease overestimated the number of events in pregnant women classified as CARPREG 1 and > 1, and underestimated it in low-risk patients (CARPREG 0).

  9. [Role of pulse pressure, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure in the prediction of cardiovascular risk. Cohort study].

    PubMed

    Baena-Díez, José Miguel; Bermúdez-Chillida, Noemí; García-Lareo, Manel; Olivia Byram, Alice; Vidal-Solsona, Marc; Vilató-García, Mónica; Gómez-Fernández, Claudia; Vásquez-Lazo, Javier Ernesto

    2008-03-22

    To analize the role of pulse pressure (PP), systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), in the prediction of cardiovascular risk. A prospective cohort study carried out in 2 primary care center, including 932 patients aged between 35-84 years old, without cardiovascular events, selected by simple random sampling, and with an 8 year follow-up. PP, SBP, and DBP were categorized in tertiles, comparing the upper with the 2 lowers. First cardiovascular event, whether fatal or not, such as coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and peripheral arterial disease was recorded as a composite variable. Results were studied according to Cox models, adjusting for age, sex, smoking, total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and diabetes mellitus. We studied the correlation between PP with SBP, DBP, and cardiovascular risk factors. We registered 85 cardiovascular events: 43 cases of coronary heart disease, 27 cerebrovascular disease, and 17 peripheral arterial disease. The adjusted hazard ratios for composite variable were: upper PP tertile (>/= 59 mmHg) = 1.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.8-2.1); upper SBP tertile (>/= 140 mmHg) = 1.5 (95% CI, 1.0-2.5); upper DBP tertile (>/= 84 mmHg) = 1.1 (95% CI, 0.7-1.8). Results were similar for specific cardiovascular events. PP was correlated with SBP (r = 0.825; p < 0.001), age (r = 0.422; p < 0.001), diabetes mellitus (r = 0.242; p < 0.001), and smoking (r = -0.158; p = 0.01), with adjusted hazard ratio for these variables of 1.0 (95% CI, 0.6-1.9). PP is an arterial pressure component very correlated with SBP and other factors, but is not a better cardiovascular risk predictor than SBP.

  10. Serum total and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and the risk prediction of cardiovascular events - the JALS-ECC -.

    PubMed

    Tanabe, Naohito; Iso, Hiroyasu; Okada, Katsutoshi; Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Harada, Akiko; Ohashi, Yasuo; Ando, Takashi; Ueshima, Hirotsugu

    2010-07-01

    Few Japanese studies have compared serum non-high-density lipoprotein (non-HDL) cholesterol with serum total cholesterol as factors for predicting risk of cardiovascular events. Currently, few tools accurately estimate the probability of developing cardiovascular events for the Japanese general population. A total of 22,430 Japanese men and women (aged 40-89 years) without a history of cardiovascular events from 10 community-based cohorts were followed. In an average 7.6-year follow up, 104 individuals experienced acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and 339 experienced stroke. Compared to serum total cholesterol, serum non-HDL cholesterol was more strongly associated with risk of AMI in a dose-response manner (multivariable adjusted incidence rate ratio per 1 SD increment [95% confidence interval] =1.49 [1.24-1.79] and 1.62 [1.35-1.95], respectively). Scoring systems were constructed based on multivariable Poisson regression models for predicting a 5-year probability of developing AMI; the non-HDL cholesterol model was found to have a better predictive ability (area under the receiver operating curve [AUC] =0.825) than the total cholesterol model (AUC =0.815). Neither total nor non-HDL serum cholesterol levels were associated with any stroke subtype. The risk of AMI can be more reliably predicted by serum non-HDL cholesterol than serum total cholesterol. The scoring systems are useful tools to predict risk of AMI. Neither total nor non-HDL serum cholesterol can predict stroke risk in the Japanese general population.

  11. Combination of carotid intima-media thickness and plaque for better predicting risk of ischaemic cardiovascular events.

    PubMed

    Xie, Wuxiang; Liang, Lirong; Zhao, Liancheng; Shi, Ping; Yang, Ying; Xie, Gaoqiang; Huo, Yong; Wu, Yangfeng

    2011-08-01

    Several indices of carotid atherosclerosis have been studied to investigate their associations with the risk of cardiovascular disease. However, the best index of carotid atherosclerosis that predicts the risk of cardiovascular disease remains unclear. To investigate the index that best reflects the relationship between carotid atherosclerosis and subsequent ischaemic cardiovascular disease (ICVD) events. An observational longitudinal study with a 5-year follow-up. 1734 Chinese subjects (623 men, 1111 women) aged 43-79 years at baseline. ICVD events, including coronary heart disease and ischaemic stroke. Carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) at baseline was significantly associated with the risk of ICVD among participants without carotid plaque (multivariable adjusted HR=1.59, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.45) but not among those with plaque (HR=1.04, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.39). However, the total area of plaques (HR=1.29, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.55), the number of plaques (HR=1.14, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.27) and the number of segments with plaque (HR=1.45, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.93) were all significantly associated with ICVD in participants with plaque. Thus, carotid IMT and the number of segments with plaque were combined to establish a summary index-the total burden score (TBS) of carotid atherosclerosis-which was shown to improve the prediction of the 5-year risk of ICVD significantly compared with IMT or the number of segments with plaque alone. The c-statistics and net reclassification index showed that TBS improved the risk prediction by increases of 6.0% and 17.1%, respectively, compared with the conventional risk score. The TBS could significantly improve the prediction of ICVD risk and should be used in clinical practice and future studies.

  12. Body Fat Equations and Electrical Bioimpedance Values in Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Eutrophic and Overweight Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Faria, Franciane Rocha; Faria, Eliane Rodrigues; Cecon, Roberta Stofeles; Barbosa Júnior, Djalma Adão; Franceschini, Sylvia do Carmo Castro; Peluzio, Maria do Carmo Gouveia; Ribeiro, Andréia Queiroz; Lira, Pedro Israel Cabral; Cecon, Paulo Roberto; Priore, Silvia Eloiza

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze body fat anthropometric equations and electrical bioimpedance analysis (BIA) in the prediction of cardiovascular risk factors in eutrophic and overweight adolescents. 210 adolescents were divided into eutrophic group (G1) and overweight group (G2). The percentage of body fat (% BF) was estimated using 10 body fat anthropometric equations and 2 BIA. We measured lipid profiles, uric acid, insulin, fasting glucose, homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and blood pressure. We found that 76.7% of the adolescents exhibited inadequacy of at least one biochemical parameter or clinical cardiovascular risk. Higher values of triglycerides (TG) (P = 0.001), insulin, and HOMA-IR (P < 0.001) were observed in the G2 adolescents. In multivariate linear regression analysis, the % BF from equation (5) was associated with TG, diastolic blood pressure, and insulin in G1. Among the G2 adolescents, the % BF estimated by (5) and (9) was associated with LDL, TG, insulin, and the HOMA-IR. Body fat anthropometric equations were associated with cardiovascular risk factors and should be used to assess the nutritional status of adolescents. In this study, equation (5) was associated with a higher number of cardiovascular risk factors independent of the nutritional status of adolescents. PMID:23762051

  13. History of preeclampsia is more predictive of cardiometabolic and cardiovascular risk factors than obesity.

    PubMed

    Heidema, Wieteke M; Scholten, Ralph R; Lotgering, Fred K; Spaanderman, Marc E A

    2015-11-01

    To determine to what extent a history of preeclampsia affects traditional cardiometabolic (insulin resistance and dyslipidemia) and cardiovascular (hypertension and micro-albuminuria) risk factors of the metabolic syndrome irrespective of BMI. In a retrospective case-control study we compared 90 formerly preeclamptic women, divided in 3 BMI-classes (BMI 19.5-24.9, 25.0-29.9, ≥30.0kg/m(2)) to 30 controls, matched for BMI, age and parity. Cardiometabolic and cardiovascular risk factors (WHO-criteria) were tested 6-18 months post partum. Statistical analysis included unpaired t-tests, Mann-Whitney U test, or Chi square test and two-way ANOVA. Constituents of the metabolic syndrome (glucose, insulin, HOMAIR, HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, blood pressure, micro-albuminuria) were higher in formerly preeclamptic women than in BMI-matched controls. Resultantly, traditional risk factors were more prevalent in formerly preeclamptic women than in controls (insulin resistance 80% vs 30%, dyslipidemia 52% vs 3%, hypertension 24% vs 0%, micro-albuminuria 30% vs 0%). Cardiometabolic risk factors increased with BMI, to the same extent in both groups. Formerly preeclamptic women had metabolic syndrome more often than their BMI-matched controls (38% vs 3%, p<0.001). Traditional risk factors of the metabolic syndrome are more prevalent in formerly preeclamptic women than in BMI-matched controls and increase with BMI to the same extent in both groups. A history of preeclampsia seems to be a stronger indicator of cardiovascular risk than obesity per se. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Common Carotid Intima-Media Thickness Measurements Do Not Improve Cardiovascular Risk Prediction in Individuals With Elevated Blood Pressure

    PubMed Central

    Bots, Michiel L.; Groenewegen, Karlijn A.; Anderson, Todd J.; Britton, Annie R.; Dekker, Jacqueline M.; Engström, Gunnar; Evans, Greg W.; de Graaf, Jacqueline; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Hedblad, Bo; Hofman, Albert; Holewijn, Suzanne; Ikeda, Ai; Kavousi, Maryam; Kitagawa, Kazuo; Kitamura, Akihiko; Ikram, M. Arfan; Lonn, Eva M.; Lorenz, Matthias W.; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B.; Nijpels, Giel; Okazaki, Shuhei; O’Leary, Daniel H.; Polak, Joseph F.; Price, Jacqueline F.; Robertson, Christine; Rembold, Christopher M.; Rosvall, Maria; Rundek, Tatjana; Salonen, Jukka T.; Sitzer, Matthias; Stehouwer, Coen D.A.; Franco, Oscar H.; Peters, Sanne A.E.; den Ruijter, Hester M.

    2015-01-01

    Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) is a marker of cardiovascular risk. It is unclear whether measurement of mean common CIMT improves 10-year risk prediction of first-time myocardial infarction or stroke in individuals with elevated blood pressure. We performed an analysis among individuals with elevated blood pressure (ie, a systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg and a diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mm Hg) in USE-IMT, a large ongoing individual participant data meta-analysis. We refitted the risk factors of the Framingham Risk Score on asymptomatic individuals (baseline model) and expanded this model with mean common CIMT (CIMT model) measurements. From both models, 10-year risks to develop a myocardial infarction or stroke were estimated. In individuals with elevated blood pressure, we compared discrimination and calibration of the 2 models and calculated the net reclassification improvement (NRI). We included 17 254 individuals with elevated blood pressure from 16 studies. During a median follow-up of 9.9 years, 2014 first-time myocardial infarctions or strokes occurred. The C-statistics of the baseline and CIMT models were similar (0.73). NRI with the addition of mean common CIMT was small and not significant (1.4%; 95% confidence intervals, −1.1 to 3.7). In those at intermediate risk (n=5008, 10-year absolute risk of 10% to 20%), the NRI was 5.6% (95% confidence intervals, 1.6–10.4). There is no added value of measurement of mean common CIMT in individuals with elevated blood pressure for improving cardiovascular risk prediction. For those at intermediate risk, the addition of mean common CIMT to an existing cardiovascular risk score is small but statistically significant. PMID:24614213

  15. Can dental pulp calcification predict the risk of ischemic cardiovascular disease?

    PubMed

    Khojastepour, Leila; Bronoosh, Pegah; Khosropanah, Shahdad; Rahimi, Elham

    2013-09-01

    To report the association of pulp calcification with that of cardiovascular disease (CVD) using digital panoramic dental radiographs. Digital panoramic radiographs of patients referred from the angiography department were included if the patient was under 55 years old and had non-restored or minimally restored molars and canines. An oral and maxillofacial radiologist evaluated the images for pulpal calcifications in the selected teeth. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of panoramic radiography in predicting CVD were calculated. Out of 122 patients who met the criteria, 68.2% of the patients with CVD had pulp chamber calcifications. Pulp calcification in panoramic radiography had a sensitivity of 68.9% to predict CVD. This study demonstrates that patients with CVD show an increased incidence of pulp calcification compared with healthy patients. The findings suggest that pulp calcification on panoramic radiography may have possibilities for use in CVD screening.

  16. Cardiac autonomic reactivity and recovery in predicting carotid atherosclerosis: the cardiovascular risk in young Finns study.

    PubMed

    Heponiemi, Tarja; Elovainio, Marko; Pulkki, Laura; Puttonen, Sampsa; Raitakari, Olli; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa

    2007-01-01

    The present study examined the association of cardiac autonomic task-induced reactivity and recovery to preclinical atherosclerosis. Thirty-three men and 33 women aged 24-39 years participated in the ongoing epidemiological Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study. The authors measured heart rate (HR), respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), and preejection period (PEP) during the mental arithmetic and speech tasks in 1999. Carotid atherosclerosis was assessed by measuring the thickness of the common carotid artery intima-media complex (IMT) with ultrasound in 2001. Higher HR, RSA, and PEP reactivity were associated with lower IMT values even after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors (lipid levels, obesity, and blood pressure). In addition, better HR recovery after the mental arithmetic task was associated with lower IMT values, and this association persisted after all adjustments. Thus, higher task-induced cardiac autonomic reactivity and better HR recovery were related to less preclinical atherosclerosis. The authors concluded that cardiac pattern of reactivity and quick recovery may be associated with better cardiovascular health, and therefore all reactivity occurring in challenging situations should not automatically be considered as potentially pathological.

  17. Predictive value of quantitative dipyridamole-thallium scintigraphy in assessing cardiovascular risk after vascular surgery in diabetes mellitus

    SciTech Connect

    Lane, S.E.; Lewis, S.M.; Pippin, J.J.; Kosinski, E.J.; Campbell, D.; Nesto, R.W.; Hill, T. )

    1989-12-01

    Cardiac complications represent a major risk to patients undergoing vascular surgery. Diabetic patients may be particularly prone to such complications due to the high incidence of concomitant coronary artery disease, the severity of which may be clinically unrecognized. Attempts to stratify groups by clinical criteria have been useful but lack the predictive value of currently used noninvasive techniques such as dipyridamole-thallium scintigraphy. One hundred one diabetic patients were evaluated with dipyridamole-thallium scintigraphy before undergoing vascular surgery. The incidence of thallium abnormalities was high (80%) and did not correlate with clinical markers of coronary disease. Even in a subgroup of patients with no overt clinical evidence of underlying heart disease, thallium abnormalities were present in 59%. Cardiovascular complications, however, occurred in only 11% of all patients. Statistically significant prediction of risk was not achieved with simple assessment of thallium results as normal or abnormal. Quantification of total number of reversible defects, as well as assessment of ischemia in the distribution of the left anterior descending coronary artery was required for optimum predictive accuracy. The prevalence of dipyridamole-thallium abnormalities in a diabetic population is much higher than that reported in nondiabetic patients and cannot be predicted by usual clinical indicators of heart disease. In addition, cardiovascular risk of vascular surgery can be optimally assessed by quantitative analysis of dipyridamole-thallium scintigraphy and identification of high- and low-risk subgroups.

  18. Comparison of SCORE-predicted risk of death due to cardiovascular events in women before and after menopause

    PubMed Central

    Brzostek, Tomasz

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Approximately 55% of women in Europe die from cardiovascular events, mostly as a result of coronary diseases and cerebral stroke. There is a 10-year shift in the cardiovascular risk between women and men. The risk in a 55-year-old female patient is similar to that of a 45-year-old man, thus the risk among women increases rapidly around the age of 50, when menopause prevails to occur. The purpose of the study was to assess and compare the SCORE-predicted risk of a fatal cardiovascular incident in pre- and postmenopausal women. Material and methods The cross-sectional study was conducted as part of community nursing practice. It covered 219 women – inhabitants of Krakow, aged from 30 to 65, without clinically validated cardiovascular diseases of arteriosclerotic and/or diabetic origin, who volunteered to take part in the study. The group was divided into three subgroups: K1 – menstruating women (n = 113), K2a – women after natural menopause (n = 88), and K2b – women after surgical menopause (n = 18). The study made use of a lifestyle questionnaire, which concerned the social and economic status, and lifestyle habits including tobacco smoking. Arterial blood pressure was measured, and total cholesterol concentration in blood (mmol/l) was recorded. Results A high (≥ 5%) level of the SCORE risk was discovered in 14.3% of postmenopausal women, as compared to 0.9% in the group of menstruating women. An average risk of a fatal cardiovascular incident during the following 10 years was significantly higher among women from groups K2a (2.61%) and K2b (2.32%) as compared to K1 – menstruating women (0.38%). No difference was, however, discovered between groups of naturally (K2a) and surgically menopausal women (K2b). Conclusions A significantly higher risk of SCORE-predicted death caused by a cardiovascular incident, as compared to the group of women in the premenopausal period, is characteristic of women in the postmenopausal period. PMID:26528104

  19. Comparison of SCORE-predicted risk of death due to cardiovascular events in women before and after menopause.

    PubMed

    Piskorz, Anna; Brzostek, Tomasz

    2015-09-01

    Approximately 55% of women in Europe die from cardiovascular events, mostly as a result of coronary diseases and cerebral stroke. There is a 10-year shift in the cardiovascular risk between women and men. The risk in a 55-year-old female patient is similar to that of a 45-year-old man, thus the risk among women increases rapidly around the age of 50, when menopause prevails to occur. The purpose of the study was to assess and compare the SCORE-predicted risk of a fatal cardiovascular incident in pre- and postmenopausal women. The cross-sectional study was conducted as part of community nursing practice. It covered 219 women - inhabitants of Krakow, aged from 30 to 65, without clinically validated cardiovascular diseases of arteriosclerotic and/or diabetic origin, who volunteered to take part in the study. The group was divided into three subgroups: K1 - menstruating women (n = 113), K2a - women after natural menopause (n = 88), and K2b - women after surgical menopause (n = 18). The study made use of a lifestyle questionnaire, which concerned the social and economic status, and lifestyle habits including tobacco smoking. Arterial blood pressure was measured, and total cholesterol concentration in blood (mmol/l) was recorded. A high (≥ 5%) level of the SCORE risk was discovered in 14.3% of postmenopausal women, as compared to 0.9% in the group of menstruating women. An average risk of a fatal cardiovascular incident during the following 10 years was significantly higher among women from groups K2a (2.61%) and K2b (2.32%) as compared to K1 - menstruating women (0.38%). No difference was, however, discovered between groups of naturally (K2a) and surgically menopausal women (K2b). A significantly higher risk of SCORE-predicted death caused by a cardiovascular incident, as compared to the group of women in the premenopausal period, is characteristic of women in the postmenopausal period.

  20. Arsenic Exposure and Predicted 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk Using the Pooled Cohort Equations in U.S. Hypertensive Adults.

    PubMed

    Nong, Qingjiao; Zhang, Yiyi; Guallar, Eliseo; Zhong, Qiuan

    2016-11-07

    This study was to evaluate the association of urine arsenic with predicted 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk in U.S. adults with hypertension. Cross-sectional analysis was conducted in 1570 hypertensive adults aged 40-79 years in the 2003-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) with determinations of urine arsenic. Predicted 10-year ASCVD risk was estimated by the Pooled Cohort Equations, developed by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association in 2013. For men, after adjustment for sociodemographic factors, urine dilution, ASCVD risk factors and organic arsenic intake from seafood, participants in the highest quartiles of urine arsenic had higher 10-year predicted ASCVD risk than in the lowest quartiles; the increases were 24% (95% confidence interval (CI): 2%, 53%) for total arsenic, 13% (95% CI: 2%, 25%) for dimethylarsinate and 22% (95% CI: 5%, 40%) for total arsenic minus arsenobetaine separately. For women, the corresponding increases were 5% (95% CI: -15%, 29%), 10% (95% CI: -8%, 30%) and 0% (95% CI: -15%, 19%), respectively. Arsenic exposure, even at low levels, may contribute to increased ASCVD risk in men with hypertension. Furthermore, our findings suggest that particular circumstances need urgently to be considered while elucidating cardiovascular effects of low inorganic arsenic levels.

  1. Arsenic Exposure and Predicted 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk Using the Pooled Cohort Equations in U.S. Hypertensive Adults

    PubMed Central

    Nong, Qingjiao; Zhang, Yiyi; Guallar, Eliseo; Zhong, Qiuan

    2016-01-01

    This study was to evaluate the association of urine arsenic with predicted 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk in U.S. adults with hypertension. Cross-sectional analysis was conducted in 1570 hypertensive adults aged 40–79 years in the 2003–2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) with determinations of urine arsenic. Predicted 10-year ASCVD risk was estimated by the Pooled Cohort Equations, developed by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association in 2013. For men, after adjustment for sociodemographic factors, urine dilution, ASCVD risk factors and organic arsenic intake from seafood, participants in the highest quartiles of urine arsenic had higher 10-year predicted ASCVD risk than in the lowest quartiles; the increases were 24% (95% confidence interval (CI): 2%, 53%) for total arsenic, 13% (95% CI: 2%, 25%) for dimethylarsinate and 22% (95% CI: 5%, 40%) for total arsenic minus arsenobetaine separately. For women, the corresponding increases were 5% (95% CI: −15%, 29%), 10% (95% CI: −8%, 30%) and 0% (95% CI: −15%, 19%), respectively. Arsenic exposure, even at low levels, may contribute to increased ASCVD risk in men with hypertension. Furthermore, our findings suggest that particular circumstances need urgently to be considered while elucidating cardiovascular effects of low inorganic arsenic levels. PMID:27828001

  2. Relevance of uric acid and asymmetric dimethylarginine for modeling cardiovascular risk prediction in chronic kidney disease patients.

    PubMed

    Kanbay, Mehmet; Afsar, Baris; Siriopol, Dimitrie; Unal, Hilmi Umut; Karaman, Murat; Saglam, Mutlu; Eyileten, Tayfun; Gezer, Mustafa; Verim, Samet; Oguz, Yusuf; Vural, Abdulgaffar; Ortiz, Alberto; Johnson, Richard J; Covic, Adrian; Yilmaz, Mahmut Ilker

    2016-07-01

    Both elevated serum uric acid and serum asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) are risk factors for cardiovascular disease. We hypothesized that combined elevation of uric acid and ADMA amplifies the risk of all-cause mortality and/or cardiovascular events (CVE) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). A total of 259 patients with CKD stages 1-5 were followed up in a time-to-event analysis for all-cause mortality and fatal and non-fatal CVE (including death, stroke, and myocardial infarction). Baseline measurements included serum uric acid and ADMA and endothelial function [ultrasound determined flow-mediated dilatation (FMD)]. As a measure of endothelial function, log FMD value was positively associated with log eGFR, but negatively associated with log ADMA and log uric acid levels. During follow-up (median 38 months), 24 (9.3 %) deaths, 90 (34.7 %) CVE, and 95 (36.7 %) deaths and CVE (composite outcome) occurred. In the univariate Cox analysis, patients with both serum uric acid and ADMA levels above the median had an increased risk of all-cause mortality, CVE, and the composite outcome (HR 5.06, 95 % CI 2.01-12.76; HR 4.75, 95 % CI 2.98-7.59; and HR 4.13, 95 % CI 2.66-6.43, respectively). However, after adjustment for renal-specific risk factors (glomerular filtration rate, proteinuria, and hsCRP), this association was maintained only for CVE and the composite outcome. The addition of both biomarkers into a model with traditional and renal-specific risk factors did not increase the prediction abilities of the model for none of the three outcomes. Elevated serum uric acid and ADMA levels are associated with an increased cardiovascular risk, but their combination does not improve risk prediction. The effects are not additive, possibly because uric acid may lie in the causal pathway by which ADMA acts.

  3. Brachial-Ankle Pulse Wave Velocity and the Risk Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease: An Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis.

    PubMed

    Ohkuma, Toshiaki; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Tomiyama, Hirofumi; Kario, Kazuomi; Hoshide, Satoshi; Kita, Yoshikuni; Inoguchi, Toyoshi; Maeda, Yasutaka; Kohara, Katsuhiko; Tabara, Yasuharu; Nakamura, Motoyuki; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Watada, Hirotaka; Munakata, Masanori; Ohishi, Mitsuru; Ito, Norihisa; Nakamura, Michinari; Shoji, Tetsuo; Vlachopoulos, Charalambos; Yamashina, Akira

    2017-06-01

    An individual participant data meta-analysis was conducted in the data of 14 673 Japanese participants without a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) to examine the association of the brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) with the risk of development of CVD. During the average 6.4-year follow-up period, 687 participants died and 735 developed cardiovascular events. A higher baPWV was significantly associated with a higher risk of CVD, even after adjustments for conventional risk factors (P for trend <0.001). When the baPWV values were classified into quintiles, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for CVD increased significantly as the baPWV quintile increased. The hazard ratio in the subjects with baPWV values in quintile 5 versus that in those with the values in quintile 1 was 3.50 (2.14-5.74; P<0.001). Every 1 SD increase of the baPWV was associated with a 1.19-fold (1.10-1.29; P<0.001) increase in the risk of CVD. Moreover, addition of baPWV to a model incorporating the Framingham risk score significantly increased the C statistics from 0.8026 to 0.8131 (P<0.001) and also improved the category-free net reclassification (0.247; P<0.001). The present meta-analysis clearly established baPWV as an independent predictor of the risk of development of CVD in Japanese subjects without preexisting CVD. Thus, measurement of the baPWV could enhance the efficacy of prediction of the risk of development of CVD over that of the Framingham risk score, which is based on the traditional cardiovascular risk factors. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  4. [Cardiovascular risk prediction and its relationship with metabolic syndrome and emerging serum makers in occupational health surveillance].

    PubMed

    Reinoso-Barbero, Luis; Capapé-Aguilar, Ana; Díaz-Garrido, Ramón; Santiago Dorrego, Catalina; Gómez-Gallego, Félix; Bandrés Moya, Fernando

    2014-01-01

    To calculate cardiovascular risk according to the American Framingham Coronary Risk Score (FCRS) and the European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) methods. To correlate the results with the presence of meta-bolic syndrome (glycemia, triglyceridemia, cholesterolemia, abdominal circumference and blood pressure) and with serum levels of three emerging biomarkers [ultrasensitive reactive C protein (PCRus), homocysteine (Hcy) and lipoproteín (a) (lp (a)]. Data were gathered during routine medical surveillance of mostly white collar workers in FREMAP Alcobendas from 2004 to 2006 (n=248).We followed standardized health surveillance protocols as established by the Spanish Health Ministry, along with inclusion of an additional blood sample and measurement of the abdominal circumference. None of the 248 workers included in our sample was classified as having high or very high risk according to FCRS in contrast to 44.8 % according to SCORE.We observed a strong correlation (r=0.78, p<0.001) between both predictive methods.We also found associations between both methods and metabolic syndrome (p=0.043), and between the FCRS and PCRus (p=0.021) and Hcy (p=0.036). Our results suggest that the inclusion of risk predictions based on FCRS and/or SCORE could be recommended for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, because of their excellent cost-benefit relationship. However, we do not recommend routine measurement of the biological markers included in this study. Copyright belongs to the Societat Catalana de Seguretat i Medicina del Treball.

  5. Left ventricular hypertrophy, aortic wall thickness, and lifetime predicted risk of cardiovascular disease:the Dallas Heart Study.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Sachin; Berry, Jarett D; Ayers, Colby R; Peshock, Ronald M; Khera, Amit; de Lemos, James A; Patel, Parag C; Markham, David W; Drazner, Mark H

    2010-06-01

    To examine whether individuals with low short-term risk of coronary heart disease but high lifetime predicted risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) have greater prevalence of left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy and increased aortic wall thickness (AWT) than those with low short-term and low lifetime risk. Lifetime risk prediction can be used for stratifying individuals younger than 50 years of age into 2 groups: low short-term/high lifetime and low short-term/low lifetime predicted risk of CVD. Individuals with low short-term/high lifetime risk have a greater burden of subclinical atherosclerosis as measured by coronary artery calcium and carotid intima-media thickness. However, >75% of individuals with low short-term/high lifetime risk do not have detectable coronary artery calcium, suggesting the presence of alternative subclinical abnormalities. We stratified 1,804 Dallas Heart Study subjects between the ages of 30 and 50 years who had cardiac magnetic resonance into 3 groups: low short-term (<10% 10-year risk of coronary heart disease)/low lifetime predicted risk (<39% lifetime risk of CVD), low short-term (<10%)/high lifetime risk (> or =39%), and high short-term risk (> or =10%, prevalent diabetes, or previous stroke, or myocardial infarction). In those with low short-term risk, we compared measures of LV hypertrophy and AWT between those with low versus high lifetime risk. Subjects with low short-term/high lifetime risk compared with those with low short-term/low lifetime risk had increased LV mass (men: 95 +/- 17 g/m(2) vs. 90 +/- 12 g/m(2) and women: 75 +/- 14 g/m(2) vs. 71 +/- 10 g/m(2), respectively; p < 0.001 for both). LV concentricity (mass/volume), wall thickness, and AWT were also significantly greater in those with high lifetime risk in this comparison (p < 0.001 for all), but LV end-diastolic volume was not (p > 0.3). These associations persisted among participants without detectable coronary artery calcium. Among individuals 30 to 50 years of age

  6. Performance of different adiposity measures for predicting cardiovascular risk in adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Min; Bovet, Pascal; Ma, Chuanwei; Xi, Bo

    2017-01-01

    This study aims to compare the performance of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and waist-to-height-ratio (WHtR) to predict the presence of at least 3 main CV risk factors in US adolescents. A total of 3621 adolescents (boys: 49.9%) aged 12–17 years from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999–2012) were included in this study. Measured CV risk factors included systolic/diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and fasting plasma glucose. The AUC of BMI-z score, WC-z score and WHtR-z score to predict at least three CV risk factors were similar (~0.85), irrespective of criteria used to define abnormal levels of CV risk factors. A 1-SD increase in any of three indices to predict CV risk was also similar for the three adiposity scores. For instance, a 1-SD increase risk in BMI-z score, WC-z score and WHtR-z score was 3.32 (95%CI 2.53–4.36), 3.43 (95%CI 2.64–4.46), and 3.45 (95%CI 2.64–4.52), respectively, in the total population using the International Diabetes Federation definition. In addition, the most efficient WHtR cut-off for screening CV risk was ~0.50 in US adolescents. In summary, BMI, WC and WHtR performed similarly well to predict the presence of at least 3 main CV risk factors among US adolescents. PMID:28262726

  7. Left atrial dimension and traditional cardiovascular risk factors predict 20-year clinical cardiovascular events in young healthy adults: the CARDIA study

    PubMed Central

    Armstrong, Anderson C.; Liu, Kiang; Lewis, Cora E.; Sidney, Stephen; Colangelo, Laura A.; Kishi, Satoru; Ambale-Venkatesh, Bharath; Arynchyn, Alex; Jacobs, David R.; Correia, Luís C.L.; Gidding, Samuel S.; Lima, João A.C.

    2014-01-01

    Aims We investigated whether the addition of left atrial (LA) size determined by echocardiography improves cardiovascular risk prediction in young adults over and above the clinically established Framingham 10-year global CV risk score (FRS). Methods and results We included white and black CARDIA participants who had echocardiograms in Year-5 examination (1990–91). The combined endpoint after 20 years was incident fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular disease: myocardial infarction, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease, and atrial fibrillation/flutter. Echocardiography-derived M-mode LA diameter (LAD; n = 4082; 149 events) and 2D four-chamber LA area (LAA; n = 2412; 77 events) were then indexed by height or body surface area (BSA). We used Cox regression, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), and net reclassification improvement (NRI) to assess the prediction power of LA size when added to calculated FRS or FRS covariates. The LAD and LAA cohorts had similar characteristics; mean LAD/height was 2.1 ± 0.3 mm/m and LAA/height 9.3 ± 2.0 mm2/m. After indexing by height and adjusting for FRS covariates, hazard ratios were 1.31 (95% CI 1.12, 1.60) and 1.43 (95% CI 1.13, 1.80) for LAD and LAA, respectively; AUC was 0.77 for LAD and 0.78 for LAA. When LAD and LAA were indexed to BSA, the results were similar but slightly inferior. Both LAD and LAA showed modest reclassification ability, with non-significant NRIs. Conclusion LA size measurements independently predict clinical outcomes. However, it only improves discrimination over clinical parameters modestly without altering risk classification. Indexing LA size by height is at least as robust as by BSA. Further research is needed to assess subgroups of young adults who may benefit from LA size information in risk stratification. PMID:24534011

  8. Lifetime cumulative risk factors predict cardiovascular disease mortality in a 50-year follow-up study in Finland.

    PubMed

    Reinikainen, Jaakko; Laatikainen, Tiina; Karvanen, Juha; Tolonen, Hanna

    2015-02-01

    Systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking are known predictors of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Less is known about the effect of lifetime accumulation and changes of risk factors over time as predictors of CVD mortality, especially in very long follow-up studies. Data from the Finnish cohorts of the Seven Countries Study were used. The baseline examination was in 1959 and seven re-examinations were carried out at approximately 5-year intervals. Cohorts were followed up for mortality until the end of 2011. Time-dependent Cox models with regular time-updated risk factors, time-dependent averages of risk factors and latest changes in risk factors, using smoothing splines to discover nonlinear effects, were used to analyse the predictive effect of risk factors for CVD mortality. A model using cumulative risk factors, modelled as the individual-level averages of several risk factor measurements over time, predicted CVD mortality better than a model using the most recent measurement information. This difference seemed to be most prominent for systolic blood pressure. U-shaped effects of the original predictors can be explained by partitioning a risk factor effect between the recent level and the change trajectory. The change in body mass index predicted the risk although body mass index itself did not. The lifetime accumulation of risk factors and the observed changes in risk factor levels over time are strong predictors of CVD mortality. It is important to investigate different ways of using the longitudinal risk factor measurements to take full advantage of them. © The Author 2014; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  9. Retinopathy Signs Improved Prediction and Reclassification of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Diabetes: A prospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Ho, Henrietta; Cheung, Carol Y.; Sabanayagam, Charumathi; Yip, Wanfen; Ikram, Mohammad Kamran; Ong, Peng Guan; Mitchell, Paul; Chow, Khuan Yew; Cheng, Ching Yu; Tai, E. Shyong; Wong, Tien Yin

    2017-01-01

    CVD risk prediction in diabetics is imperfect, as risk models are derived mainly from the general population. We investigate whether the addition of retinopathy and retinal vascular caliber improve CVD prediction beyond established risk factors in persons with diabetes. We recruited participants from the Singapore Malay Eye Study (SiMES, 2004–2006) and Singapore Prospective Study Program (SP2, 2004–2007), diagnosed with diabetes but no known history of CVD at baseline. Retinopathy and retinal vascular (arteriolar and venular) caliber measurements were added to risk prediction models derived from Cox regression model that included established CVD risk factors and serum biomarkers in SiMES, and validated this internally and externally in SP2. We found that the addition of retinal parameters improved discrimination compared to the addition of biochemical markers of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP). This was even better when the retinal parameters and biomarkers were used in combination (C statistic 0.721 to 0.774, p = 0.013), showing improved discrimination, and overall reclassification (NRI = 17.0%, p = 0.004). External validation was consistent (C-statistics from 0.763 to 0.813, p = 0.045; NRI = 19.11%, p = 0.036). Our findings show that in persons with diabetes, retinopathy and retinal microvascular parameters add significant incremental value in reclassifying CVD risk, beyond established risk factors. PMID:28148953

  10. [Vitamin D and cardiovascular risk].

    PubMed

    Mayer, Otto

    2012-05-01

    The pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease is without any doubt multifactorial, and it is generally accepted, that conventional risk factors determined only about 80% of cardiovascular risk. There is accumulating evidence that vitamin D exerts important pathophysiological effects on cardiovascular system. Low vitamin D was associated with increased cardiovascular risk in several reports. This review summarizes recent epidemiological evidence and possible pathophysiological mechanism for a role of low vitamin D in cardiovascular diseases. Moreover, available data concerning vitamin D supplementation are depicted.

  11. Moving beyond regression techniques in cardiovascular risk prediction: applying machine learning to address analytic challenges.

    PubMed

    Goldstein, Benjamin A; Navar, Ann Marie; Carter, Rickey E

    2016-07-19

    Risk prediction plays an important role in clinical cardiology research. Traditionally, most risk models have been based on regression models. While useful and robust, these statistical methods are limited to using a small number of predictors which operate in the same way on everyone, and uniformly throughout their range. The purpose of this review is to illustrate the use of machine-learning methods for development of risk prediction models. Typically presented as black box approaches, most machine-learning methods are aimed at solving particular challenges that arise in data analysis that are not well addressed by typical regression approaches. To illustrate these challenges, as well as how different methods can address them, we consider trying to predicting mortality after diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. We use data derived from our institution's electronic health record and abstract data on 13 regularly measured laboratory markers. We walk through different challenges that arise in modelling these data and then introduce different machine-learning approaches. Finally, we discuss general issues in the application of machine-learning methods including tuning parameters, loss functions, variable importance, and missing data. Overall, this review serves as an introduction for those working on risk modelling to approach the diffuse field of machine learning.

  12. Biomarkers of cardiovascular disease risk in women.

    PubMed

    Manson, JoAnn E; Bassuk, Shari S

    2015-03-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD), including coronary heart disease and stroke, is the leading cause of death among U.S. women and men. Established cardiovascular risk factors such as smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and elevated total cholesterol, and risk prediction models based on such factors, perform well but do not perfectly predict future risk of CVD. Thus, there has been much recent interest among cardiovascular researchers in identifying novel biomarkers to aid in risk prediction. Such markers include alternative lipids, B-type natriuretic peptides, high-sensitivity troponin, coronary artery calcium, and genetic markers. This article reviews the role of traditional cardiovascular risk factors, risk prediction tools, and selected novel biomarkers and other exposures in predicting risk of developing CVD in women. The predictive role of novel cardiovascular biomarkers for women in primary prevention settings requires additional study, as does the diagnostic and prognostic utility of cardiac troponins for acute coronary syndromes in clinical settings. Sex differences in the clinical expression and physiology of metabolic syndrome may have implications for cardiovascular outcomes. Consideration of exposures that are unique to, or more prevalent in, women may also help to refine cardiovascular risk estimates in this group.

  13. Validation of the health ABC heart failure model for incident heart failure risk prediction: the Cardiovascular Health Study.

    PubMed

    Kalogeropoulos, Andreas; Psaty, Bruce M; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Georgiopoulou, Vasiliki; Smith, Andrew L; Smith, Nicholas L; Kritchevsky, Stephen B; Wilson, Peter W F; Newman, Anne B; Harris, Tamara B; Butler, Javed

    2010-07-01

    The recently developed and internally validated Health ABC HF model uses 9 routinely available clinical variables to determine incident heart failure risk. In this study, we sought to externally validate the Health ABC HF model. Observed 5-year incidence of heart failure, defined as first hospitalization for new-onset heart failure, was compared with 5-year risk estimates derived from the Health ABC HF model among participants without heart failure at baseline in the Cardiovascular Health Study. During follow-up, 400 of 5335 (7.5%) participants developed heart failure over 5 years versus 364 (6.8%) predicted by the Health ABC HF model (predicted-to-observed ratio, 0.90). Observed versus predicted 5-year heart failure probabilities were 3.2% versus 2.8%, 9.0% versus 7.0%, 15.9% versus 13.7%, and 24.6% versus 30.8% for the <5%, 5% to 10%, 10% to 20%, and >20% 5-year risk categories, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow chi(2) was 14.72 (degrees of freedom, 10; P=0.14), and the C index was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.76). Calibration and discrimination demonstrated adequate performance across sex and race overall; however, risk was underestimated in white men, especially in the 5% to 10% risk category. Model performance was optimal when participants with normal left ventricular function at baseline were assessed separately. Performance was consistent across age groups. Analyses with death as a competing risk yielded similar results. The Health ABC HF model adequately predicted 5-year heart failure risk in a large community-based study, providing support for the external validity of the model. This tool may be used to identify individuals to whom to target heart failure prevention efforts.

  14. Prediction of First Cardiovascular Disease Event in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus: The Steno Type 1 Risk Engine.

    PubMed

    Vistisen, Dorte; Andersen, Gregers Stig; Hansen, Christian Stevns; Hulman, Adam; Henriksen, Jan Erik; Bech-Nielsen, Henning; Jørgensen, Marit Eika

    2016-03-15

    Patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus are at increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD), but they are currently undertreated. There are no risk scores used on a regular basis in clinical practice for assessing the risk of CVD in type 1 diabetes mellitus. From 4306 clinically diagnosed adult patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus, we developed a prediction model for estimating the risk of first fatal or nonfatal CVD event (ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, heart failure, and peripheral artery disease). Detailed clinical data including lifestyle factors were linked to event data from validated national registers. The risk prediction model was developed by using a 2-stage approach. First, a nonparametric, data-driven approach was used to identify potentially informative risk factors and interactions (random forest and survival tree analysis). Second, based on results from the first step, Poisson regression analysis was used to derive the final model. The final CVD prediction model was externally validated in a different population of 2119 patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus. During a median follow-up of 6.8 years (interquartile range, 2.9-10.9) a total of 793 (18.4%) patients developed CVD. The final prediction model included age, sex, diabetes duration, systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, hemoglobin A1c, albuminuria, glomerular filtration rate, smoking, and exercise. Discrimination was excellent for a 5-year CVD event with a C-statistic of 0.826 (95% confidence interval, 0.807-0.845) in the derivation data and a C-statistic of 0.803 (95% confidence interval, 0.767-0.839) in the validation data. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed good calibration (P>0.05) in both cohorts. This high-performing CVD risk model allows for the implementation of decision rules in a clinical setting. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  15. Waist Circumference, Body Mass Index, and Other Measures of Adiposity in Predicting Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Peruvian Adults

    PubMed Central

    Knowles, K. M.; Paiva, L. L.; Sanchez, S. E.; Revilla, L.; Lopez, T.; Yasuda, M. B.; Yanez, N. D.; Gelaye, B.; Williams, M. A.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives. To examine the extent to which measures of adiposity can be used to predict selected components of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP). Methods. A total of 1,518 Peruvian adults were included in this study. Waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), waist-height ratio (WHtR), and visceral adiposity index (VAI) were examined. The prevalence of each MetS component was determined according to tertiles of each anthropometric measure. ROC curves were used to evaluate the extent to which measures of adiposity can predict cardiovascular risk. Results. All measures of adiposity had the strongest correlation with triglyceride concentrations (TG). For both genders, as adiposity increased, the prevalence of Mets components increased. Compared to individuals with low-BMI and low-WC, men and women with high-BMI and high- WC had higher odds of elevated fasting glucose, blood pressure, TG, and reduced HDL, while only men in this category had higher odds of elevated CRP. Overall, the ROCs showed VAI, WC, and WHtR to be the best predictors for individual MetS components. Conclusions. The results of our study showed that measures of adiposity are correlated with cardiovascular risk although no single adiposity measure was identified as the best predictor for MetS. PMID:21331161

  16. World Health Organization (WHO) and International Society of Hypertension (ISH) risk prediction charts: assessment of cardiovascular risk for prevention and control of cardiovascular disease in low and middle-income countries.

    PubMed

    Mendis, Shanthi; Lindholm, Lars H; Mancia, Giuseppe; Whitworth, Judith; Alderman, Michael; Lim, Stephen; Heagerty, Tony

    2007-08-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of the growing global disease burden due to non-communicable diseases. For successful prevention and control of CVD, strategies that focus on individuals need to complement population-wide strategies. Strategies that focus on individuals are cost effective only when targeted at high-risk groups. Risk prediction tools that easily and accurately predict an individual's absolute risk of CVD are key to targeting limited resources at high-risk individuals who are likely to benefit the most. Health systems in low-income countries do not have the basic infrastructure facilities to support resource-intensive risk prediction tools, particularly in primary healthcare. The WHO/ISH charts presented here, enable the prediction of future risk of heart attacks and strokes in people living in low and middle income countries, for the first time. Furthermore, since the charts use simple variables they can be applied even in low resource settings. Thus the WHO/ISH risk predication charts and the accompanying guideline will improve the effectiveness of cardiovascular risk management even in settings which do not have sophisticated technology.

  17. Prediction of cardiovascular risk by electrocardiographic changes in women with intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy.

    PubMed

    Biberoglu, Ebru Hacer; Kirbas, Ayse; Kirbas, Ozgur; Iskender, Cantekin; Daglar, Halil Korkut; Koseoglu, Cemal; Uygur, Dilek; Danisman, Nuri

    2015-01-01

    We aimed to investigate P wave characteristics in pregnant women with and without intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (ICP). In this case-control study, including 59 pregnant women with intrahepatic cholestasis and 28 with healthy uncomplicated pregnancies, electrocardiographic maximum (Pmax) and minimum (Pmin) P-wave durations and P-wave dispersion (Pd) parameters were investigated. While Pmin and Pd values were significantly lower in women both with mild and severe ICP when compared to healthy pregnant women (p < 0.001), there was no significant difference between mild and severe disease groups. Intrahepatic cholestasis predisposes to cardiovascular complications. P-wave durations and Pd constitute a recent contribution to the field of noninvasive electrocardiology. Our data clearly demonstrated that these parameters were significantly altered in pregnant women with ICP when compared to the normal ones. This important association can be used to screen for women with an increased risk to better target counseling on lifestyle modifications and to closer follow-up and management of women with a history of ICP.

  18. Comparison of the Combined Obesity Indices to Predict Cardiovascular Diseases Risk Factors and Metabolic Syndrome in Northeast China.

    PubMed

    Tao, Yuchun; Yu, Jianxing; Tao, Yuhui; Pang, Hui; Yu, Yang; Yu, Yaqin; Jin, Lina

    2016-08-09

    Obesity is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors (hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes) and metabolic syndrome (MetS), and it may be flawed that most studies only use one obesity index to predict these risk factors. Therefore, our study aims to compare the various combined obesity indices systematically, and to find the optimal combined obesity indices to predict CVD risk factors and MetS. A total of 16,766 participants aged 18-79 years old were recruited in Jilin Province in 2012. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) curves and multiple logistic regressions were used to evaluate the predictive capacity of the combined obesity indices for CVD risk factors and MetS. The adjusted area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) with two combined obesity indices had been improved up to 19.45%, compared with one single obesity index. In addition, body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) were the optimal combinations, where the AUROC (95% confidence interval (CI)) for hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes and MetS in males were 0.730 (0.718, 0.740), 0.694 (0.682, 0.706), 0.725 (0.709, 0.742) and 0.820 (0.810, 0.830), and in females were 0.790 (0.780, 0.799), 0.727 (0.717, 0.738), 0.746 (0.731, 0.761) and 0.828 (0.820, 0.837), respectively. The more abnormal obesity indices that one has the higher the risk for CVD risk factors and MetS, especially in males. In addition, the combined obesity indices have better predictions than one obesity index, where BMI and WC are the optimal combinations.

  19. REPEATED MEASUREMENTS OF BLOOD PRESSURE AND CHOLESTEROL IMPROVES CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE RISK PREDICTION: AN INDIVIDUAL-PARTICIPANT-DATA META-ANALYSIS.

    PubMed

    Paige, Ellie; Barrett, Jessica; Pennells, Lisa; Sweeting, Michael; Willeit, Peter; Di Angelantonio, Emanuele; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Psaty, Bruce M; Goldbourt, Uri; Best, Lyle G; Assmann, Gerd; Salonen, Jukka T; Nietert, Paul J; Verschuren, Wm Monique; Brunner, Eric J; Kronmal, Richard A; Salomaa, Veikko; Bakker, Stephan Jl; Dagenais, Gilles R; Sato, Shinichi; Jansson, Jan-Håkan; Willeit, Johann; Onat, Altan; de la Cámara, Agustin Gómez; Roussel, Ronan; Völzke, Henry; Dankner, Rachel; Tipping, Robert W; Meade, Tom W; Donfrancesco, Chiara; Kuller, Lewis H; Peters, Annette; Gallacher, John; Kromhout, Daan; Iso, Hiroyasu; Knuiman, Matthew; Casiglia, Edoardo; Kavousi, Maryam; Palmieri, Luigi; Sundström, Johan; Davis, Barry R; Njølstad, Inger; Couper, David; Danesh, John; Thompson, Simon G; Wood, Angela

    2017-05-26

    The added value of incorporating information from repeated measurements of blood pressure and cholesterol for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction has not been rigorously assessed. We used data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration on 191,445 adults (38 cohorts from across 17 countries with data from 1962-2014) with > 1 million measurements of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; over a median 12 years of follow-up, 21,170 CVD events occurred. Risk prediction models using cumulative means of repeated measurements and summary measures from longitudinal modelling of the repeated measurements were compared to models using measurements from a single time point. Risk discrimination (C-index) and net reclassification were calculated, and changes in C-indices were meta-analysed across studies. Compared to the single time point model, the cumulative means and the longitudinal models increased the C-index by 0.0040 (95% CI: 0.0023, 0.0057) and 0.0023 (0.0005, 0.0042), respectively. Reclassification was also improved in both models; compared to the single time point model, overall net reclassification improvements were 0.0369 (0.0303, 0.0436) for the cumulative means model and 0.0177 (0.0110, 0.0243) for the longitudinal model. In conclusion, incorporating repeated measurements of blood pressure and cholesterol into CVD risk prediction models slightly improves risk prediction. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

  20. Cardiovascular Event Prediction and Risk Reclassification by Coronary, Aortic, and Valvular Calcification in the Framingham Heart Study.

    PubMed

    Hoffmann, Udo; Massaro, Joseph M; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Kathiresan, Sekar; Fox, Caroline S; O'Donnell, Christopher J

    2016-02-22

    We determined whether vascular and valvular calcification predicted incident major coronary heart disease, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and all-cause mortality independent of Framingham risk factors in the community-based Framingham Heart Study. Coronary artery calcium (CAC), thoracic and abdominal aortic calcium, and mitral or aortic valve calcium were measured by cardiac computed tomography in participants free of CVD. Participants were followed for a median of 8 years. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine association of CAC, thoracic and abdominal aortic calcium, and mitral and aortic valve calcium with end points. Improvement in discrimination beyond risk factors was tested via the C-statistic and net reclassification index. In this cohort of 3486 participants (mean age 50±10 years; 51% female), CAC was most strongly associated with major coronary heart disease, followed by major CVD, and all-cause mortality independent of Framingham risk factors. Among noncoronary calcifications, mitral valve calcium was associated with major CVD and all-cause mortality independent of Framingham risk factors and CAC. CAC significantly improved discriminatory value beyond risk factors for coronary heart disease (area under the curve 0.78-0.82; net reclassification index 32%, 95% CI 11-53) but not for CVD. CAC accurately reclassified 85% of the 261 patients who were at intermediate (5-10%) 10-year risk for coronary heart disease based on Framingham risk factors to either low risk (n=172; no events observed) or high risk (n=53; observed event rate 8%). CAC improves discrimination and risk reclassification for major coronary heart disease and CVD beyond risk factors in asymptomatic community-dwelling persons and accurately reclassifies two-thirds of the intermediate-risk population. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  1. Physical Activity Level Improves the Predictive Accuracy of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score: The ATTICA Study (2002–2012)

    PubMed Central

    Georgousopoulou, Ekavi N.; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B.; Bougatsas, Dimitrios; Chatzigeorgiou, Michael; Kavouras, Stavros A.; Chrysohoou, Christina; Skoumas, Ioannis; Tousoulis, Dimitrios; Stefanadis, Christodoulos; Pitsavos, Christos

    2016-01-01

    Background: Although physical activity (PA) has long been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), assessment of PA status has never been used as a part of CVD risk prediction tools. The aim of the present work was to examine whether the inclusion of PA status in a CVD risk model improves its predictive accuracy. Methods: Data from the 10-year follow-up (2002–2012) of the n = 2020 participants (aged 18–89 years) of the ATTICA prospective study were used to test the research hypothesis. The HellenicSCORE (that incorporates age, sex, smoking, total cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure levels) was calculated to estimate the baseline 10-year CVD risk; assessment of PA status was based on the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The estimated CVD risk was tested against the observed 10-year incidence (i.e., development of acute coronary syndromes, stroke, or other CVD according to the World Health Organization [WHO]-International Classification of Diseases [ICD]-10 criteria). Changes in the predictive ability of the nested CVD risk model that contained the HellenicSCORE plus PA assessment were evaluated using Harrell's C and net reclassification index. Results: Both HellenicSCORE and PA status were predictors of future CVD events (P < 0.05). However, the estimating classification bias of the model that included only the HellenicSCORE was significantly reduced when PA assessment was included (Harrel's C = 0.012, P = 0.032); this reduction remained significant even when adjusted for diabetes mellitus and dietary habits (P < 0.05). Conclusions: CVD risk scores seem to be more accurate by incorporating individuals’ PA status; thus, may be more effective tools in primary prevention by efficiently allocating CVD candidates. PMID:27076890

  2. Derivation and validation of a set of 10-year cardiovascular risk predictive functions in Spain: the FRESCO Study.

    PubMed

    Marrugat, Jaume; Subirana, Isaac; Ramos, Rafel; Vila, Joan; Marín-Ibañez, Alejandro; Guembe, María Jesús; Rigo, Fernando; Tormo Díaz, María José; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi; Cabré, Joan Josep; Segura, Antonio; Baena-Díez, José Miguel; de la Cámara, Agustín Gómez; Lapetra, José; Grau, María; Quesada, Miquel; Medrano, María José; González Diego, Paulino; Frontera, Guiem; Gavrila, Diana; Aicua, Eva Ardanaz; Basora, Josep; García, José María; García-Lareo, Manuel; Gutierrez, José Antonio; Mayoral, Eduardo; Sala, Joan; D'Agostino, Ralph; Elosua, Roberto

    2014-04-01

    To derive and validate a set of functions to predict coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, and validate the Framingham-REGICOR function. Pooled analysis of 11 population-based Spanish cohorts (1992-2005) with 50,408 eligible participants. Baseline smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure (SBP), lipid profile, and body mass index were recorded. A ten-year follow-up included re-examinations/telephone contact and cross-linkage with mortality registries. For each sex, two models were fitted for CHD, stroke, and both end-points combined: model A was adjusted for age, smoking, and body mass index and model B for age, smoking, diabetes, SBP, total and HDL cholesterol, and for hypertension treatment by SBP, and age by smoking and by SBP interactions. The 9.3-year median follow-up accumulated 2973 cardiovascular events. The C-statistic improved from model A to model B for CHD (0.66 to 0.71 for men; 0.70 to 0.74 for women) and the combined CHD-stroke end-points (0.68 to 0.71; 0.72 to 0.75, respectively), but not for stroke alone. Framingham-REGICOR had similar C-statistics but overestimated CHD risk. The new functions accurately estimate 10-year stroke and CHD risk in the adult population of a typical southern European country. The Framingham-REGICOR function provided similar CHD prediction but overestimated risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Change in predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk following Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery: who benefits?

    PubMed

    Donadelli, Simara P; Salgado, Wilson; Marchini, Julio S; Schmidt, Andre; Amato, Cristiana A F; Ceneviva, Reginaldo; Dos Santos, Jose Ernesto; Nonino, Carla Barbosa

    2011-05-01

    The risk of developing cardiovascular disease is higher in obese than in non-obese individuals. Surgery for obesity is effective in reducing weight and resolution of diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. Our aim was to assess the estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk of obese patients before and after treatment of obesity with a gastric bypass. Weight, body mass index systolic and diastolic blood pressure, lipid profile, glycemia, and history of cardiovascular disease were obtained for obese patients before and 2 years after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery. Ten-year cardiovascular risk was calculated using the Framingham score. Forty-two patients were included in the study. We observed a significant reduction (p < 0.05) of 10-year cardiovascular risk mainly associated with weight reduction and improvement of comorbidities associated with obesity. The benefits were greater among patients who already presented known risk factors such as diabetes and hypertension. Superobese patients benefited as early as 2 years after surgery, when weight loss was greater. Weight loss secondary to surgery was sustained after 2 years and promoted improvement of comorbidities, with an important reduction of 10-year cardiovascular risk especially among patients with previous risk factors.

  4. An international model to predict recurrent cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Peter W F; D'Agostino, Ralph; Bhatt, Deepak L; Eagle, Kim; Pencina, Michael J; Smith, Sidney C; Alberts, Mark J; Dallongeville, Jean; Goto, Shinya; Hirsch, Alan T; Liau, Chiau-Suong; Ohman, E Magnus; Röther, Joachim; Reid, Christopher; Mas, Jean-Louis; Steg, Ph Gabriel

    2012-07-01

    Prediction models for cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death in patients with established cardiovascular disease are not generally available. Participants from the prospective REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry provided a global outpatient population with known cardiovascular disease at entry. Cardiovascular prediction models were estimated from the 2-year follow-up data of 49,689 participants from around the world. A developmental prediction model was estimated from 33,419 randomly selected participants (2394 cardiovascular events with 1029 cardiovascular deaths) from the pool of 49,689. The number of vascular beds with clinical disease, diabetes, smoking, low body mass index, history of atrial fibrillation, cardiac failure, and history of cardiovascular event(s) <1 year before baseline examination increased risk of a subsequent cardiovascular event. Statin (hazard ratio 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.82) and acetylsalicylic acid therapy (hazard ratio 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.99) also were significantly associated with reduced risk of cardiovascular events. The prediction model was validated in the remaining 16,270 REACH subjects (1172 cardiovascular events, 494 cardiovascular deaths). Risk of cardiovascular death was similarly estimated with the same set of risk factors. Simple algorithms were developed for prediction of overall cardiovascular events and for cardiovascular death. This study establishes and validates a risk model to predict secondary cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death in outpatients with established atherothrombotic disease. Traditional risk factors, burden of disease, lack of treatment, and geographic location all are related to an increased risk of subsequent cardiovascular morbidity and cardiovascular mortality. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. A Point-based Prediction Model for Cardiovascular Risk in Orthotopic Liver Transplantation: The CAR-OLT Score.

    PubMed

    VanWagner, Lisa B; Ning, Hongyan; Whitsett, Maureen; Levitsky, Josh; Uttal, Sarah; Wilkins, John T; Abecassis, Michael M; Ladner, Daniela P; Skaro, Anton I; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M

    2017-07-13

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) complications are important causes of morbidity and mortality after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). There is currently no preoperative risk assessment tool that allows physicians to estimate the risk for CVD events following OLT. We sought to develop a point-based prediction model (risk score) for CVD complications after OLT, the CAR-OLT risk score, among a cohort of 1024 consecutive patients aged 18-75 years who underwent first OLT in a tertiary-care teaching hospital (2002-2011). The main outcome measures were major 1-year CVD complications, defined as death from a CVD cause or hospitalization for a major CVD event (myocardial infarction, revascularization, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, cardiac arrest, pulmonary embolism, and/or stroke). The bootstrap method yielded bias-corrected 95% confidence intervals for the regression coefficients of the final model.Among 1024 first OLT recipients, major CVD complications occurred in 329 (32.1%). Variables selected for inclusion in the model (using model optimization strategies) included pre-operative recipient age, sex, race, employment status, education status, history of hepatocellular carcinoma, diabetes, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, pulmonary or systemic hypertension, and respiratory failure. The discriminative performance of the CAR-OLT point-based score (C statistic=0.78, bias-corrected C statistic=0.77) was superior to other published risk models for postoperative CVD morbidity and mortality, and it had appropriate calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.33). The point-based CAR-OLT risk score can identify patients at risk for CVD complications after OLT surgery (available at: www.carolt.us). This score may be useful for identification of candidates for further risk stratification or other management strategies to improve CVD outcomes after OLT. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2017 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

  6. Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease by the Framingham-REGICOR Equation in the High-Risk PREDIMED Cohort: Impact of the Mediterranean Diet Across Different Risk Strata.

    PubMed

    Amor, Antonio J; Serra-Mir, Mercè; Martínez-González, Miguel A; Corella, Dolores; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi; Fitó, Montserrat; Estruch, Ramón; Serra-Majem, Lluis; Arós, Fernando; Babio, Nancy; Ros, Emilio; Ortega, Emilio

    2017-03-13

    The usefulness of cardiovascular disease (CVD) predictive equations in different populations is debatable. We assessed the efficacy of the Framingham-REGICOR scale, validated for the Spanish population, to identify future CVD in participants, who were predefined as being at high-risk in the PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea (PREDIMED) study-a nutrition-intervention primary prevention trial-and the impact of adherence to the Mediterranean diet on CVD across risk categories. In a post hoc analysis, we assessed the CVD predictive value of baseline estimated risk in 5966 PREDIMED participants (aged 55-74 years, 57% women; 48% with type 2 diabetes mellitus). Major CVD events, the primary PREDIMED end point, were an aggregate of myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular death. Multivariate-adjusted Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios for major CVD events and effect modification from the Mediterranean diet intervention across risk strata (low, moderate, high, very high). The Framingham-REGICOR classification of PREDIMED participants was 25.1% low risk, 44.5% moderate risk, and 30.4% high or very high risk. During 6-year follow-up, 188 major CVD events occurred. Hazard ratios for major CVD events increased in parallel with estimated risk (2.68, 4.24, and 6.60 for moderate, high, and very high risk), particularly in men (7.60, 13.16, and 15.85, respectively, versus 2.16, 2.28, and 3.51, respectively, in women). Yet among those with low or moderate risk, 32.2% and 74.3% of major CVD events occurred in men and women, respectively. Mediterranean diet adherence was associated with CVD risk reduction regardless of risk strata (P>0.4 for interaction). Incident CVD increased in parallel with estimated risk in the PREDIMED cohort, but most events occurred in non-high-risk categories, particularly in women. Until predictive tools are improved, promotion of the Mediterranean diet might be useful to reduce CVD independent of baseline risk. URL: http

  7. Comparison of validation and application on various cardiovascular disease mortality risk prediction models in Chinese rural population

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Changqing; Xu, Fei; Liu, Xiaotian; Fang, Mingwang; Zhou, Hao; Lian, Yixiao; Xie, Chen; Sun, Nan; Wang, Chongjian

    2017-01-01

    This research aims to assess application of different cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk prediction models in Chinese rural population. Data was collected from a 6-year follow-up survey in rural area of Henan Province, China. 10338 participants aged 40 to 65 years were included. Baseline study was conducted between 2007 and 2008, and followed up from 2013 to 2014. Seven models: general Framingham risk score (general-FRS), simplified-FRS, Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation for high (SCORE-high), SCORE-low, Chinese ischemic CVD (CN-ICVD), Pooled Cohort Risk Equation for white (PCE-white) and for African-American (PCE-AA) were assessed and recalibrated. The model performance was evaluated by C-statistics and modified Nam-D’Agostino test. 168 CVD deaths occurred during follow-up. All seven models showed moderate C-statics ranging from 0.727 to 0.744. Following recalibration, general-FRS, simplified-FRS, CN-ICVD, PCE-white and PCE-AA had improved C-statistics of 0.776, 0.795, 0.793, 0.779, and 0.776 for men and 0.756, 0.753, 0.755, 0.758 and 0.760 for women, respectively. Calibrations χ2 of general-FRS, simplified-FRS, SCORE-high, CN-ICVD and PCE-AA model for men, and general-FRS, CN-ICVD and PCE-white model for women were statistically acceptable, indicating these models predicts CVD mortality risk more accurately than others and could be recommended in Chinese rural population. PMID:28337999

  8. Clinical utility of creatinine- and cystatin C-based definition of renal function for risk prediction of primary cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes.

    PubMed

    Schöttker, Ben; Herder, Christian; Müller, Heiko; Brenner, Hermann; Rothenbacher, Dietrich

    2012-04-01

    To assess the cardiovascular risk of diabetic subjects with chronic kidney disease (CKD) based on different estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) equations and to evaluate which definition of CKD best improves cardiovascular risk prediction of the Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score (Framingham-CV-RS). CKD was defined as eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), estimated by the creatinine-based Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equations and a cystatin C-based equation (CKD-CysC). Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of subjects with CKD for incident cardiovascular events in a cohort of 1,153 individuals with diabetes (baseline age 50-74 years). Furthermore, the CKD definitions were added individually to a reference model comprising the Framingham-CV-RS variables and HbA(1c), and measures of model discrimination and reclassification were assessed. During 5 years of follow-up, 95 individuals had a primary cardiovascular event. Crude HRs were increased for all CKD definitions. However, after adjusting for established cardiovascular risk factors, HRs for both creatinine-based CKD definitions were attenuated to point estimates of 1.03, whereas the HRs for the cystatin C-based CKD definition remained significantly increased (HR 1.75 [95% CI 1.07-2.87]). Extension of the reference model by the different CKD definitions resulted in an increase in the c statistic only when adding CKD-CysC (from 0.638 to 0.644) along with a net reclassification improvement of 8.9%. Only the cystatin C-based CKD definition was an independent risk predictor for cardiovascular events in our diabetic study cohort and indicated a potentially better clinical utility for cardiovascular risk prediction than creatinine-based equations.

  9. Development and Validation of Risk Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Events in Black Adults: The Jackson Heart Study Cohort.

    PubMed

    Fox, Ervin R; Samdarshi, Tandaw E; Musani, Solomon K; Pencina, Michael J; Sung, Jung Hye; Bertoni, Alain G; Xanthakis, Vanessa; Balfour, Pelbreton C; Shreenivas, Satya S; Covington, Carolyn; Liebson, Philip R; Sarpong, Daniel F; Butler, Kenneth R; Mosley, Thomas H; Rosamond, Wayne D; Folsom, Aaron R; Herrington, David M; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Taylor, Herman A

    2016-04-01

    Cardiovascular risk assessment is a fundamental component of prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, commonly used prediction models have been formulated in primarily or exclusively white populations. Whether risk assessment in black adults is dissimilar to that in white adults is uncertain. To develop and validate risk prediction models for CVD incidence in black adults, incorporating standard risk factors, biomarkers, and subclinical disease. The Jackson Heart Study (JHS), a longitudinal community-based study of 5301 black adults in Jackson, Mississippi. Inclusive study dates were the date of a participant's first visit (September 2000 to March 2004) to December 31, 2011. The median (75th percentile) follow-up was 9.1 (9.7) years. The dates of the analysis were August 2013 to May 2015. Measurements included standard risk factors, including age, sex, body mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, ratio of fasting total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, estimated glomerular filtration rate, antihypertensive therapy, diabetes mellitus, and smoking; blood biomarkers; and subclinical disease measures, including ankle-brachial index, carotid intimal-medial thickness, and echocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy and systolic dysfunction. Incident CVD event was defined as the first occurrence of myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, congestive heart failure, stroke, incident angina, or intermittent claudication. Model performance was compared with the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) CVD risk algorithm and the Framingham Risk Score (FHS) refitted to the JHS data and evaluated in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohorts. The study cohort comprised 3689 participants with mean (SD) age at baseline was 53 (11) years, and 64.8% (n = 2390) were female. Over a median of 9.1 years, 270 participants (166 women) experienced a

  10. The contribution of educational class in improving accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction across European regions: The MORGAM Project Cohort Component.

    PubMed

    Ferrario, Marco M; Veronesi, Giovanni; Chambless, Lloyd E; Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Salomaa, Veikko; Borglykke, Anders; Hart, Nigel; Söderberg, Stefan; Cesana, Giancarlo

    2014-08-01

    To assess whether educational class, an index of socioeconomic position, improves the accuracy of the SCORE cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction equation. In a pooled analysis of 68 455 40-64-year-old men and women, free from coronary heart disease at baseline, from 47 prospective population-based cohorts from Nordic countries (Finland, Denmark, Sweden), the UK (Northern Ireland, Scotland), Central Europe (France, Germany, Italy) and Eastern Europe (Lithuania, Poland) and Russia, we assessed improvements in discrimination and in risk classification (net reclassification improvement (NRI)) when education was added to models including the SCORE risk equation. The lowest educational class was associated with higher CVD mortality in men (pooled age-adjusted HR=1.64, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.90) and women (HR=1.31, 1.02 to 1.68). In men, the HRs ranged from 1.3 (Central Europe) to 2.1 (Eastern Europe and Russia). After adjustment for the SCORE risk, the association remained statistically significant overall, in the UK and Eastern Europe and Russia. Education significantly improved discrimination in all European regions and classification in Nordic countries (clinical NRI=5.3%) and in Eastern Europe and Russia (NRI=24.7%). In women, after SCORE risk adjustment, the association was not statistically significant, but the reduced number of deaths plays a major role, and the addition of education led to improvements in discrimination and classification in the Nordic countries only. We recommend the inclusion of education in SCORE CVD risk equation in men, particularly in Nordic and East European countries, to improve social equity in primary prevention. Weaker evidence for women warrants the need for further investigations. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  11. Addition of 24-Hour Heart Rate Variability Parameters to the Cardiovascular Health Study Stroke Risk Score and Prediction of Incident Stroke: The Cardiovascular Health Study.

    PubMed

    Bodapati, Rohan K; Kizer, Jorge R; Kop, Willem J; Kamel, Hooman; Stein, Phyllis K

    2017-07-21

    Heart rate variability (HRV) characterizes cardiac autonomic functioning. The association of HRV with stroke is uncertain. We examined whether 24-hour HRV added predictive value to the Cardiovascular Health Study clinical stroke risk score (CHS-SCORE), previously developed at the baseline examination. N=884 stroke-free CHS participants (age 75.3±4.6), with 24-hour Holters adequate for HRV analysis at the 1994-1995 examination, had 68 strokes over ≤8 year follow-up (median 7.3 [interquartile range 7.1-7.6] years). The value of adding HRV to the CHS-SCORE was assessed with stepwise Cox regression analysis. The CHS-SCORE predicted incident stroke (HR=1.06 per unit increment, P=0.005). Two HRV parameters, decreased coefficient of variance of NN intervals (CV%, P=0.031) and decreased power law slope (SLOPE, P=0.033) also entered the model, but these did not significantly improve the c-statistic (P=0.47). In a secondary analysis, dichotomization of CV% (LOWCV% ≤12.8%) was found to maximally stratify higher-risk participants after adjustment for CHS-SCORE. Similarly, dichotomizing SLOPE (LOWSLOPE <-1.4) maximally stratified higher-risk participants. When these HRV categories were combined (eg, HIGHCV% with HIGHSLOPE), the c-statistic for the model with the CHS-SCORE and combined HRV categories was 0.68, significantly higher than 0.61 for the CHS-SCORE alone (P=0.02). In this sample of older adults, 2 HRV parameters, CV% and power law slope, emerged as significantly associated with incident stroke when added to a validated clinical risk score. After each parameter was dichotomized based on its optimal cut point in this sample, their composite significantly improved prediction of incident stroke during ≤8-year follow-up. These findings will require validation in separate, larger cohorts. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  12. Cardiovascular disease risk prediction by the American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk score among HIV-infected patients in sub-Saharan Africa

    PubMed Central

    Hemphill, Linda C.; Palai, Tommy; Nkele, Isaac; Bennett, Kara; Lockman, Shahin; Triant, Virginia A.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives HIV-infected patients are at increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, general population CVD risk prediction equations that identify HIV-infected patients at elevated risk have not been widely assessed in sub-Saharan African (SSA). Methods HIV-infected adults from 30–50 years of age with documented viral suppression were enrolled into a cross-sectional study in Gaborone, Botswana. Participants were screened for CVD risk factors. Bilateral carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) was measured and 10-year predicted risk of cardiovascular disease was calculated using the Pooled Cohorts Equation for atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) and the 2008 Framingham Risk Score (FRS) (National Cholesterol Education Program III–NCEP III). ASCVD ≥7.5%, FRS ≥10%, and cIMT≥75th percentile were considered elevated risk for CVD. Agreement in classification of participants as high-risk for CVD by cIMT and FRS or ASCVD risk score was assessed using McNemar`s Test. The optimal cIMT cut off-point that matched ASCVD predicted risk of ≥7.5% was assessed using Youden’s J index. Results Among 208 HIV-infected patients (female: 55%, mean age 38 years), 78 (38%) met criteria for ASCVD calculation versus 130 (62%) who did not meet the criteria. ASCVD classified more participants as having elevated CVD risk than FRS (14.1% versus 2.6%, McNemar’s exact test p = 0.01), while also classifying similar proportion of participants as having elevated CVD like cIMT (14.1% versus 19.2%, McNemar’s exact test p = 0.34). Youden’s J calculated the optimal cut point at the 81st percentile for cIMT to correspond to an ASCVD score ≥7.5% (sensitivity = 72.7% and specificity = 88.1% with area under the curve for the receiver operating characteristic [AUC] of 0.82, 95% Mann-Whitney CI: 0.66–0.99). Conclusion While the ASCVD risk score classified more patients at elevated CVD risk than FRS, ASCVD score classified similar proportion of patients as high risk when compared with

  13. [Preeclampsia as cardiovascular risk factor].

    PubMed

    Heida, Karst Y; Franx, Arie; Bots, Michiel L

    2013-01-01

    Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the primary cause of death in women. Guidelines for identifying high-risk individuals have been developed, e.g. the Dutch Guideline on Cardiovascular Risk Management. In the most recent version of this guideline, diabetes mellitus (DM) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are cited as cardiovascular risk factors; therefore, individuals with these conditions are identified as being at high risk. As with DM and RA, there is strong evidence that the experience of having a hypertensive disorder during pregnancy is a cardiovascular risk factor. This is particularly the case for early preeclampsia, which constitutes a 7-fold increased risk of ischemic heart disease. However, in the Netherlands, there are no guidelines and there is no consensus on how to screen or treat these women. Trial evidence is therefore urgently needed to substantiate the value of cardiovascular risk management for those women with a history of hypertension during pregnancy.

  14. Prediction of 10-year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk among Adults Aged 40-79 Years in China: a Nationally Representative Survey.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Mei; Jiang, Yong; Wang, Li Min; Li, Yi Chong; Huang, Zheng Jing; Li, Jian Hong; Zhou, Mai Geng; Zhao, Wen Hua

    2017-04-01

    To establish the distribution of 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk among Chinese adults. We estimated the 10-year ASCVD risk by applying the 2013 American College of Cardiology/ American Heart Association pooled cohort equations (PCEs) to the data obtained from the 2010 China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance that involved 61,541 participants (representing 520,158,652 Chinese adults) aged 40-79 years. We also compared the ASCVD risk with the 10-year ischemic cardiovascular disease (ICVD) risk, which was calculated using the simplified scoring tables recommended by the Chinese Guidelines for Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases (Chinese model). Based on the PCEs, the average 10-year ASCVD risk among adults without self-reported stroke or myocardial infraction was 12.5%. Approximately 247 million (47.4%) and 107 million (20.6%) adults had ⋝ 7.5% and > 20% 10-year ASCVD risks, respectively. The 10-year ASCVD risk > 20% was higher among men, less educated individuals, smokers, drinkers, and physically inactive individuals than among their counterparts. Overall, 29.0% of adults categorized using the Chinese model were overclassified with the PCEs. Our results define the distribution of 10-year ASCVD risk among Chinese adults. The 10-year ASCVD risk predicted by the PCEs was higher than the ICVD risk predicted by the Chinese model. Copyright © 2017 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

  15. Cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis.

    PubMed

    Soubrier, Martin; Barber Chamoux, Nicolas; Tatar, Zuzana; Couderc, Marion; Dubost, Jean-Jacques; Mathieu, Sylvain

    2014-07-01

    The objectives of this review are to discuss data on the cardiovascular risk increase associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), the effects of RA treatments on the cardiovascular risk level, and the management of cardiovascular risk factors in patients with RA. Overall, the risk of cardiovascular disease is increased 2-fold in RA patients compared to the general population, due to the combined effects of RA and conventional risk factors. There is some evidence that the cardiovascular risk increase associated with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug therapy may be smaller in RA patients than in the general population. Glucocorticoid therapy increases the cardiovascular risk in proportion to both the current dose and the cumulative dose. Methotrexate and TNFα antagonists diminish cardiovascular morbidity and mortality rates. The management of dyslipidemia remains suboptimal. Risk equations may perform poorly in RA patients even when corrected using the multiplication factors suggested by the EUropean League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) (multiply the score by 1.5 when two of the following three criteria are met: disease duration longer than 10 years, presence of rheumatoid factor or anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (CCP) antibodies, and extraarticular manifestations). Doppler ultrasonography of the carotid arteries in patients at moderate cardiovascular risk may allow a more aggressive approach to dyslipidemia management via reclassification into the high-risk category of patients with an intima-media thickness greater than 0.9 mm or atheroma plaque.

  16. Evaluation of Multiple Biomarkers of Cardiovascular Stress for Risk Prediction and Guiding Medical Therapy in Patients with Stable Coronary Disease

    PubMed Central

    Sabatine, Marc S.; Morrow, David A.; de Lemos, James A.; Omland, Torbjorn; Sloan, Sarah; Jarolim, Petr; Solomon, Scott D.; Pfeffer, Marc A.; Braunwald, Eugene

    2012-01-01

    Background Circulating biomarkers can offer insight into subclinical cardiovascular stress and thus have the potential to aid in risk stratification and tailoring of therapy. Methods & Results We measured plasma levels of 4 cardiovascular biomarkers, midregional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP), midregional pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM), C-terminal pro-endothelin-1 (CT-proET-1) and copeptin, in 3717 patients with stable CAD and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) who were randomized to trandolapril or placebo as part of the Prevention of Events with Angiotensin Converting Enzyme (PEACE) trial. After adjustment for clinical cardiovascular risk predictors and LVEF, elevated levels of MR-proANP, MR-proADM, and CT-proET-1 were independently associated with the risk of cardiovascular death or heart failure (HRs per 1-SD of log-transformed biomarker levels of 1.97, 1.48, and 1.47, respectively; P≤0.002 for each biomarker). These three biomarkers also significantly improved metrics of discrimination when added to a clinical model. Trandolapril significantly reduced the risk of cardiovascular death or heart failure in patients who had elevated levels of 2 or more these biomarkers (HR 0.53, 95% CI 0.36–0.80), whereas there was no benefit in patients with elevated levels of 0 or 1 biomarkers (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.74–1.59) (Pinteraction=0.012). Conclusions In patients with stable CAD and preserved LVEF, our results suggest elevated levels of novel biomarkers of cardiovascular stress may help identify patients who are at higher risk of cardiovascular death and heart failure and may be useful to select patients who derive significant benefit from ACE inhibitor therapy. PMID:22179538

  17. Candy consumption in childhood is not predictive of weight, adiposity measures or cardiovascular risk factors in young adults: the Bogalusa Heart Study

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    There are limited data available on the longitudinal relationship between candy consumption by children on weight and other cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in young adults. The present study investigated whether candy consumption in children was predictive of weight and CVRF in young adults. A lo...

  18. Semi-parametric risk prediction models for recurrent cardiovascular events in the LIPID study

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Traditional methods for analyzing clinical and epidemiological cohort study data have been focused on the first occurrence of a health outcome. However, in many situations, recurrent event data are frequently observed. It is inefficient to use methods for the analysis of first events to analyse recurrent event data. Methods We applied several semi-parametric proportional hazards models to analyze the risk of recurrent myocardial infarction (MI) events based on data from a very large randomized placebo-controlled trial of cholesterol-lowering drug. The backward selection procedure was used to select the significant risk factors in a model. The best fitting model was selected using the log-likelihood ratio test, Akaike Information and Bayesian Information Criteria. Results A total of 8557 persons were included in the LIPID study. Risk factors such as age, smoking status, total cholesterol and high density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, qualifying event for the acute coronary syndrome, revascularization, history of stroke or diabetes, angina grade and treatment with pravastatin were significant for development of both first and subsequent MI events. No significant difference was found for the effects of these risk factors between the first and subsequent MI events. The significant risk factors selected in this study were the same as those selected by the parametric conditional frailty model. Estimates of the relative risks and 95% confidence intervals were also similar between these two methods. Conclusions Our study shows the usefulness and convenience of the semi-parametric proportional hazards models for the analysis of recurrent event data, especially in estimation of regression coefficients and cumulative risks. PMID:20356409

  19. Does our gut microbiome predict cardiovascular risk? A review of the evidence from metabolomics.

    PubMed

    Griffin, Julian L; Wang, Xinzhu; Stanley, Elizabeth

    2015-02-01

    Millions of microbes are found in the human gut, and are collectively referred as the gut microbiota. Recent studies have estimated that the microbiota genome contains 100-fold more genes than the host genome. These microbiota contribute to digestion by processing energy substrates unutilized by the host, with about half of the total genome of the gut microbiota being related to central carbon and amino acid metabolism as well as the biosynthesis of secondary metabolites. Therefore, the gut microbiome and its interaction with the host influences many aspects of health and disease, including the composition of biofluids such as urine and blood plasma. Metabolomics is uniquely suited to capture these functional host-microbe interactions. This review aims at providing an overview of recent metabolomics evidence of gut microbiota-host metabolic interactions with a specific focus on cardiovascular disease and related aspects of the metabolic syndrome. Furthermore, the emphasis is given on the complexities of translating these metabolite signatures as potential clinical biomarkers, as the composition and activity of gut microbiome change with many factors, particularly with diet, with special reference to trimethylamine-oxide.

  20. Does Our Gut Microbiome Predict Cardiovascular Risk? A Review of the Evidence from Metabolomics

    PubMed Central

    Griffin, Julian L.; Wang, Xinzhu; Stanley, Elizabeth

    2014-01-01

    Millions of microbes are found in the human gut, and are collectively referred as the gut microbiota. Recent studies have estimated that the microbiota genome contains 100-fold more genes than the host genome. These microbiota contribute to digestion by processing energy substrates unutilized by the host, with about half of the total genome of the gut microbiota being related to central carbon and amino acid metabolism as well as the biosynthesis of secondary metabolites. Therefore, the gut microbiome and its interaction with the host influences many aspects of health and disease, including influencing the composition of biofluids such as urine and blood plasma. Metabolomics is uniquely suited to capture these functional host-microbe interactions. This review aims at providing an overview of recent metabolomics evidence of gut microbiota-host metabolic interactions with a specific focus on cardiovascular disease and related aspects of the metabolic syndrome. Furthermore, the emphasis is given on the complexities of translating these metabolite signatures as potential clinical biomarkers, as the composition and activity of gut microbiome change with many factors, particularly with diet with special reference to trimethylamine-oxide. PMID:25691688

  1. Psychosocial Work Characteristics Predict Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and Health Functioning in Rural Women: The Wisconsin Rural Women's Health Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chikani, Vatsal; Reding, Douglas; Gunderson, Paul; McCarty, Catherine A.

    2005-01-01

    Background: The aim of the present study is to investigate the association between psychosocial work characteristics and health functioning and cardiovascular disease risk factors among rural women of central Wisconsin and compare psychosocial work characteristics between farm and nonfarm women. Methods: Stratified sampling was used to select a…

  2. Psychosocial Work Characteristics Predict Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and Health Functioning in Rural Women: The Wisconsin Rural Women's Health Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chikani, Vatsal; Reding, Douglas; Gunderson, Paul; McCarty, Catherine A.

    2005-01-01

    Background: The aim of the present study is to investigate the association between psychosocial work characteristics and health functioning and cardiovascular disease risk factors among rural women of central Wisconsin and compare psychosocial work characteristics between farm and nonfarm women. Methods: Stratified sampling was used to select a…

  3. Cardiovascular risk factor investigation: a pediatric issue

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues, Anabel N; Abreu, Glaucia R; Resende, Rogério S; Goncalves, Washington LS; Gouvea, Sonia Alves

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To correlate cardiovascular risk factors (e.g., hypertension, obesity, hypercholesterolemia, hypertriglyceridemia, hyperglycemia, sedentariness) in childhood and adolescence with the occurrence of cardiovascular disease. Sources A systematic review of books and selected articles from PubMed, SciELO and Cochrane from 1992 to 2012. Summary of findings Risk factors for atherosclerosis are present in childhood, although cardiovascular disease arises during adulthood. This article presents the main studies that describe the importance of investigating the risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in childhood and their associations. Significant rates of hypertension, obesity, dyslipidemia, and sedentariness occur in children and adolescents. Blood pressure needs to be measured in childhood. An increase in arterial blood pressure in young people predicts hypertension in adulthood. The death rate from cardiovascular disease is lowest in children with lower cholesterol levels and in individuals who exercise regularly. In addition, there is a high prevalence of sedentariness in children and adolescents. Conclusions Studies involving the analysis of cardiovascular risk factors should always report the prevalence of these factors and their correlations during childhood because these factors are indispensable for identifying an at-risk population. The identification of risk factors in asymptomatic children could contribute to a decrease in cardiovascular disease, preventing such diseases as hypertension, obesity, and dyslipidemia from becoming the epidemics of this century. PMID:23515212

  4. Cardiac troponin T: from diagnosis of myocardial infarction to cardiovascular risk prediction.

    PubMed

    Mueller, Matthias; Vafaie, Mehrshad; Biener, Moritz; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Katus, Hugo A

    2013-01-01

    Cardiac troponins (cTns) T and I are exclusively expressed at high concentrations in cardiac muscle and have emerged as the preferred biomarker in the universal definition of myocardial infarction (MI). With the recent introduction of high-sensitivity (hs) assays, diagnostic sensitivity for earlier detection of MI has substantially improved. However, lowering the diagnostic cut-off has increased the detection of myocardial injuries in various non-acute coronary syndrome (ACS) conditions, which are not related to myocardial ischemia, leading to rising difficulties in diagnosing MI in clinical situations. Several approaches, such as serial sampling and incorporation of relative or absolute δ-changes, have been proposed to overcome the limitation of decreased sensitivity for MI diagnosis with hs-cTn assays. Current consensus for rapid rule-in proposes a 20% increase within 3 or 6h when baseline cTn levels are elevated. In the case of negative baseline values, relative increases ≥50% above the 99(th) percentile were found to be adequate to improve accuracy of MI diagnosis. Besides improved diagnostic accuracy for myocardial injury, even minor cTn elevations provide important prognostic information, and increased levels of cTn are associated with adverse outcomes in both the ACS and non-ACS condition, irrespective of whether the underlying cause is an acute or chronic illness. Thus, it is highly likely that lowering the diagnostic cut-off with even more sensitive assays might improve risk stratification in both conditions.

  5. Cardiovascular Disease Population Risk Tool (CVDPoRT): predictive algorithm for assessing CVD risk in the community setting. A study protocol.

    PubMed

    Taljaard, Monica; Tuna, Meltem; Bennett, Carol; Perez, Richard; Rosella, Laura; Tu, Jack V; Sanmartin, Claudia; Hennessy, Deirdre; Tanuseputro, Peter; Lebenbaum, Michael; Manuel, Douglas G

    2014-10-23

    Recent publications have called for substantial improvements in the design, conduct, analysis and reporting of prediction models. Publication of study protocols, with prespecification of key aspects of the analysis plan, can help to improve transparency, increase quality and protect against increased type I error. Valid population-based risk algorithms are essential for population health planning and policy decision-making. The purpose of this study is to develop, evaluate and apply cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk algorithms for the population setting. The Ontario sample of the Canadian Community Health Survey (2001, 2003, 2005; 77,251 respondents) will be used to assess risk factors focusing on health behaviours (physical activity, diet, smoking and alcohol use). Incident CVD outcomes will be assessed through linkage to administrative healthcare databases (619,886 person-years of follow-up until 31 December 2011). Sociodemographic factors (age, sex, immigrant status, education) and mediating factors such as presence of diabetes and hypertension will be included as predictors. Algorithms will be developed using competing risks survival analysis. The analysis plan adheres to published recommendations for the development of valid prediction models to limit the risk of overfitting and improve the quality of predictions. Key considerations are fully prespecifying the predictor variables; appropriate handling of missing data; use of flexible functions for continuous predictors; and avoiding data-driven variable selection procedures. The 2007 and 2009 surveys (approximately 50,000 respondents) will be used for validation. Calibration will be assessed overall and in predefined subgroups of importance to clinicians and policymakers. This study has been approved by the Ottawa Health Science Network Research Ethics Board. The findings will be disseminated through professional and scientific conferences, and in peer-reviewed journals. The algorithm will be accessible

  6. Influence of Cardiovascular Risk in the Prediction and Timing of Cardiac Events After Exercise Echocardiogram Testing Without Ischemia.

    PubMed

    Velasco Del Castillo, Sonia; Antón Ladislao, Ane; Gómez Sánchez, Verónica; Onaindia Gandarias, José Juan; Cacicedo Fernández de Bobadilla, Ángela; Rodríguez Sánchez, Ibon; Laraudogoitia Zaldumbide, Eva

    2017-09-01

    There have been no analyses of the influence of cardiovascular risk as a predictor of events in patients with exercise echocardiography (EE) without ischemia. Our objective was to determine the predictors of cardiac events, paying special attention to cardiovascular risk. This study included 1640 patients with EE without ischemia. Of these, there were 1206 with no previously known coronary artery disease (CAD), whose risk of a fatal cardiovascular disease event was estimated according to the European SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation) risk assessment system, and 434 with known CAD. The primary endpoint was cardiac event-free survival (EFS) (cardiac death, nonfatal acute coronary syndrome, and coronary revascularization). After a median follow-up of 35 [23-54] months, no differences were found in cardiac EFS between patients with a SCORE ≥ 10 or diabetes and patients with previous CAD (89.8% vs 87.1%). In the first year, cardiac EFS was high in all groups (99.4% if SCORE < 5; 100% if 5-9; 98% if ≥ 10 or diabetes and 97% in patients with CAD). In the third year, cardiac EFS was similar in the group with SCORE ≥ 10 or diabetes (94.5%) and patients with CAD (91.1%, P = NS). In these patients, the annualized event rate was 2.8% and 2.55%, respectively, and was significantly higher than in groups with SCORE < 5 (0.6%) and SCORE 5-9 (0.12%). The most frequent events were non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome and late revascularization. Predictors of cardiac events were previous CAD, SCORE ≥ 10 or diabetes mellitus, creatinine clearance, left ventricular ejection fraction, and chest pain during EE. Initial outcome after an EE without ischemia is favorable but is subsequently modulated by cardiovascular risk. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  7. Effects of nutrition and exercise health behaviors on predicted risk of cardiovascular disease among workers with different body mass index levels.

    PubMed

    Huang, Jui-Hua; Huang, Shu-Ling; Li, Ren-Hau; Wang, Ling-Hui; Chen, Yu-Ling; Tang, Feng-Cheng

    2014-04-29

    Workplace health promotion programs should be tailored according to individual needs and efficient intervention. This study aimed to determine the effects of nutrition and exercise health behaviors on predicted risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) when body mass index (BMI) is considered. In total, 3350 Taiwanese workers were included in this cross-sectional study. A self-reported questionnaire was used to measure their nutrition and exercise behaviors. Data on anthropometric values, biochemical blood determinations, and predicted CVD risk (using the Framingham risk score) were collected. In multiple regression analyses, the nutrition behavior score was independently and negatively associated with CVD risk. Exercise was not significantly associated with the risk. However, the interactive effect of exercise and BMI on CVD risk was evident. When stratified by BMI levels, associations between exercise and CVD risk were statistically significant for ideal weight and overweight subgroups. In conclusion, nutrition behavior plays an important role in predicting the CVD risk. Exercise behavior is also a significant predictor for ideal weight and overweight workers. Notably, for underweight or obese workers, maintaining health-promoting exercise seems insufficient to prevent the CVD. In order to improve workers' cardiovascular health, more specific health-promoting strategies should be developed to suit the different BMI levels.

  8. Cardiovascular risk scores for coronary atherosclerosis.

    PubMed

    Yalcin, Murat; Kardesoglu, Ejder; Aparci, Mustafa; Isilak, Zafer; Uz, Omer; Yiginer, Omer; Ozmen, Namik; Cingozbay, Bekir Yilmaz; Uzun, Mehmet; Cebeci, Bekir Sitki

    2012-10-01

    The objective of this study was to compare frequently used cardiovascular risk scores in predicting the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and 3-vessel disease. In 350 consecutive patients (218 men and 132 women) who underwent coronary angiography, the cardiovascular risk level was determined using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), the Modified Framingham Risk Score (MFRS), the Prospective Cardiovascular Münster (PROCAM) score, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The area under the curve for receiver operating characteristic curves showed that FRS had more predictive value than the other scores for CAD (area under curve, 0.76, P < or = 0.001), but all scores had good specificity and positive predictive value. For 3-vessel disease, the FRS had better predictive value than the other scores (area under curve, 0.74, P < or = 0.001), but all scores had good specificity and negative predictive value. The risk scores (FRS, MFRS, PROCAM, and SCORE) may predict the presence and severity of coronary atherosclerosis.The FRS had better predictive value than the other scores.

  9. HIV and General Cardiovascular Risk

    PubMed Central

    Capili, Bernadette; Anastasi, Joyce K.; Ogedegbe, Olugbenga

    2011-01-01

    The incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is increasing in HIV-infected people. Risk factors such as hyperlipidemia, impaired glucose tolerance, and insulin resistance have become common. CVD in HIV may also be related to non-traditional risk factors including accumulation of visceral fat, inflammation secondary to HIV, and effects of some antiretroviral drugs. This cross-sectional study described the CVD risk factors of 123 adults living with HIV and calculated the 10-year estimate for general cardiovascular risk score. Results showed that approximately 25% of the participants were considered to be at high risk for developing CVD in the next 10 years. Increased waist circumference and longer duration of smoking habit were associated with elevated general cardiovascular risk scores. Similar to the general population, most of the identified risks could be modified through lifestyle management. PMID:21277230

  10. Marathon run: cardiovascular adaptation and cardiovascular risk.

    PubMed

    Predel, Hans-Georg

    2014-11-21

    The first marathon run as an athletic event took place in the context of the Olympic Games in 1896 in Athens, Greece. Today, participation in a 'marathon run' has become a global phenomenon attracting young professional athletes as well as millions of mainly middle-aged amateur athletes worldwide each year. One of the main motives for these amateur marathon runners is the expectation that endurance exercise (EE) delivers profound beneficial health effects. However, with respect to the cardiovascular system, a controversial debate has emerged whether the marathon run itself is healthy or potentially harmful to the cardiovascular system, especially in middle-aged non-elite male amateur runners. In this cohort, exercise-induced increases in cardiac biomarkers-troponin and brain natriuretic peptide-and acute functional cardiac alterations have been observed and interpreted as potential cardiac damage. Furthermore, in the cohort of 40- to 65-year-old males engaged in intensive EE, a significant risk for the development of atrial fibrillation has been identified. Fortunately, recent studies demonstrated a normalization of the cardiac biomarkers and the functional alterations within a short time frame. Therefore, these alterations may be perceived as physiological myocardial reactions to the strenuous exercise and the term 'cardiac fatigue' has been coined. This interpretation is supported by a recent analysis of 10.9 million marathon runners demonstrating that there was no significantly increased overall risk of cardiac arrest during long-distance running races. In conclusion, intensive and long-lasting EE, e.g. running a full-distance Marathon, results in high cardiovascular strain whose clinical relevance especially for middle-aged and older athletes is unclear and remains a matter of controversy. Furthermore, there is a need for evidence-based recommendations with respect to medical screening and training strategies especially in male amateur runners over the age of

  11. Performance of the Framingham and SCORE cardiovascular risk prediction functions in a non-diabetic population of a Spanish health care centre: a validation study

    PubMed Central

    Barroso, Lourdes Cañón; Muro, Eloísa Cruces; Herrera, Natalio Díaz; Ochoa, Gerardo Fernández; Hueros, Juan Ignacio Calvo; Buitrago, Francisco

    2010-01-01

    Objective To analyse the 10-year performance of the original Framingham coronary risk function and of the SCORE cardiovascular death risk function in a non-diabetic population of 40–65 years of age served by a Spanish healthcare centre. Also, to estimate the percentage of patients who are candidates for antihypertensive and lipid-lowering therapy. Design Longitudinal, observational study of a retrospective cohort followed up for 10 years. Setting Primary care health centre. Patients A total of 608 non-diabetic patients of 40–65 years of age (mean 52.8 years, 56.7% women), without evidence of cardiovascular disease were studied. Main outcome measures Coronary risk at 10 years from the time of their recruitment, using the tables based on the original Framingham function, and of their 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease using the SCORE tables. Results The actual incidence rates of coronary and fatal cardiovascular events were 7.9% and 1.5%, respectively. The original Framingham equation over-predicted risk by 64%, while SCORE function over-predicted risk by 40%, but the SCORE model performed better than the Framingham one for discrimination and calibration statistics. The original Framingham function classified 18.3% of the population as high risk and SCORE 9.2%. The proportions of patients who would be candidates for lipid-lowering therapy were 31.0% and 23.8% according to the original Framingham and SCORE functions, respectively, and 36.8% and 31.2% for antihypertensive therapy. Conclusion The SCORE function showed better values than the original Framingham function for each of the discrimination and calibration statistics. The original Framingham function selected a greater percentage of candidates for antihypertensive and lipid-lowering therapy. PMID:20873973

  12. Adding pharmacists to primary care teams reduces predicted long-term risk of cardiovascular events in type 2 diabetic patients without established cardiovascular disease: results from a randomized trial.

    PubMed

    Ladhani, N N; Majumdar, S R; Johnson, J A; Tsuyuki, R T; Lewanczuk, R Z; Spooner, R; Simpson, S H

    2012-11-01

    To determine the impact of adding pharmacists to primary care teams on predicted 10-year risk of cardiovascular events in patients with Type 2 diabetes without established cardiovascular disease. This was a pre-specified secondary analysis of randomized trial data. The main study found that, compared with usual care, addition of a pharmacist resulted in improvements in blood pressure, dyslipidaemia, and hyperglycaemia for primary care patients with Type 2 diabetes. In this sub-study, predicted 10-year risk of cardiovascular events at baseline and 1 year were calculated for patients free of cardiovascular disease at enrolment. The primary outcome was change in UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk score; change in Framingham risk score was a secondary outcome. Baseline characteristics were similar between the 102 intervention patients and 93 control subjects: 59% women, median (interquartile range) age 57 (50-64) years, diabetes duration 3 (1-6.5) years, systolic blood pressure 128 (120-140) mmHg, total cholesterol 4.34 (3.75-5.04) mmol/l and HbA(1c) 54 mmol/mol (48-64 mmol/mol) [7.1% (6.5-8.0%)]. Median baseline UKPDS risk score was 10.2% (6.0-16.7%) for intervention patients and 9.5% (5.8-15.1%) for control subjects (P = 0.80). One-year post-randomization, the median absolute reduction in UKPDS risk score was 1.0% greater for intervention patients compared with control subjects (P = 0.032). Similar changes were seen with the Framingham risk score (median reduction 1.2% greater for intervention patients compared with control subjects, P = 0.048). The two risk scores were highly correlated (rho = 0.83; P < 0.001). Adding pharmacists to primary care teams for 1 year significantly reduced the predicted 10-year risk of cardiovascular events for patients with Type 2 diabetes without established cardiovascular disease. © 2012 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2012 Diabetes UK.

  13. Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease Risk by Cardiac Biomarkers in 2 United Kingdom Cohort Studies: Does Utility Depend on Risk Thresholds For Treatment?

    PubMed

    Welsh, Paul; Hart, Carole; Papacosta, Olia; Preiss, David; McConnachie, Alex; Murray, Heather; Ramsay, Sheena; Upton, Mark; Watt, Graham; Whincup, Peter; Wannamethee, Goya; Sattar, Naveed

    2016-02-01

    We tested the predictive ability of cardiac biomarkers N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity troponin T, and midregional pro adrenomedullin for cardiovascular disease (CVD) events using the British Regional Heart Study (BRHS) of men aged 60 to 79 years, and the MIDSPAN Family Study (MFS) of men and women aged 30 to 59 years. They included 3757 and 2226 participants, respectively, and during median 13.0 and 17.3 years follow-up the primary CVD event rates were 16.6 and 5.3 per 1000 patient-years, respectively. In Cox models adjusted for basic classical risk factors, 1 SD increases in log-transformed NT-proBNP, high-sensitivity troponin T, and midregional pro adrenomedullin were generally associated with increased primary CVD risk in both the studies (P<0.006) except midregional pro adrenomedullin in MFS (P=0.10). In BRHS, QRISK2 risk factors yielded a C-index of 0.657, which was improved by 0.017 (P=0.005) by NT-proBNP, but not by other biomarkers. Using 28% 14-year risk as a proxy for 20% 10-year risk, NT-proBNP improved risk classification for primary CVD cases (case net reclassification index, 5.9%; 95% confidence interval, 2.8%-9.2%), but only improved classification of noncases at a 14% 14-year risk threshold (4.6%; 2.9%-6.3%). In MFS, ASSIGN risk factors yielded a C-index of 0.752 for primary CVD; none of the cardiac biomarkers improved the C-index. Improvements in risk classification were only seen using NT-proBNP and high-sensitivity troponin T among cases using the 28% 14-year risk threshold (4.7%; 1.0%-9.2% and 2.6%; 0.0%-5.8%, respectively). In conclusion, the improvement in treatment allocation gained by adding cardiac biomarkers to risk scores seems to depend on the risk threshold chosen for commencing preventative treatments. © 2015 The Authors.

  14. Common carotid intima-media thickness measurements do not improve cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with elevated blood pressure: the USE-IMT collaboration.

    PubMed

    Bots, Michiel L; Groenewegen, Karlijn A; Anderson, Todd J; Britton, Annie R; Dekker, Jacqueline M; Engström, Gunnar; Evans, Greg W; de Graaf, Jacqueline; Grobbee, Diederick E; Hedblad, Bo; Hofman, Albert; Holewijn, Suzanne; Ikeda, Ai; Kavousi, Maryam; Kitagawa, Kazuo; Kitamura, Akihiko; Ikram, M Arfan; Lonn, Eva M; Lorenz, Matthias W; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Nijpels, Giel; Okazaki, Shuhei; O'Leary, Daniel H; Polak, Joseph F; Price, Jacqueline F; Robertson, Christine; Rembold, Christopher M; Rosvall, Maria; Rundek, Tatjana; Salonen, Jukka T; Sitzer, Matthias; Stehouwer, Coen D A; Franco, Oscar H; Peters, Sanne A E; den Ruijter, Hester M

    2014-06-01

    Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) is a marker of cardiovascular risk. It is unclear whether measurement of mean common CIMT improves 10-year risk prediction of first-time myocardial infarction or stroke in individuals with elevated blood pressure. We performed an analysis among individuals with elevated blood pressure (i.e., a systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg and a diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mm Hg) in USE-IMT, a large ongoing individual participant data meta-analysis. We refitted the risk factors of the Framingham Risk Score on asymptomatic individuals (baseline model) and expanded this model with mean common CIMT (CIMT model) measurements. From both models, 10-year risks to develop a myocardial infarction or stroke were estimated. In individuals with elevated blood pressure, we compared discrimination and calibration of the 2 models and calculated the net reclassification improvement (NRI). We included 17 254 individuals with elevated blood pressure from 16 studies. During a median follow-up of 9.9 years, 2014 first-time myocardial infarctions or strokes occurred. The C-statistics of the baseline and CIMT models were similar (0.73). NRI with the addition of mean common CIMT was small and not significant (1.4%; 95% confidence intervals, -1.1 to 3.7). In those at intermediate risk (n=5008, 10-year absolute risk of 10% to 20%), the NRI was 5.6% (95% confidence intervals, 1.6-10.4). There is no added value of measurement of mean common CIMT in individuals with elevated blood pressure for improving cardiovascular risk prediction. For those at intermediate risk, the addition of mean common CIMT to an existing cardiovascular risk score is small but statistically significant.

  15. Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a cardiovascular risk prediction algorithm for people with severe mental illness (PRIMROSE).

    PubMed

    Zomer, Ella; Osborn, David; Nazareth, Irwin; Blackburn, Ruth; Burton, Alexandra; Hardoon, Sarah; Holt, Richard Ian Gregory; King, Michael; Marston, Louise; Morris, Stephen; Omar, Rumana; Petersen, Irene; Walters, Kate; Hunter, Rachael Maree

    2017-09-05

    To determine the cost-effectiveness of two bespoke severe mental illness (SMI)-specific risk algorithms compared with standard risk algorithms for primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention in those with SMI. Primary care setting in the UK. The analysis was from the National Health Service perspective. 1000 individuals with SMI from The Health Improvement Network Database, aged 30-74 years and without existing CVD, populated the model. Four cardiovascular risk algorithms were assessed: (1) general population lipid, (2) general population body mass index (BMI), (3) SMI-specific lipid and (4) SMI-specific BMI, compared against no algorithm. At baseline, each cardiovascular risk algorithm was applied and those considered high risk (> 10%) were assumed to be prescribed statin therapy while others received usual care. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs were accrued for each algorithm including no algorithm, and cost-effectiveness was calculated using the net monetary benefit (NMB) approach. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to test assumptions made and uncertainty around parameter estimates. The SMI-specific BMI algorithm had the highest NMB resulting in 15 additional QALYs and a cost saving of approximately £53 000 per 1000 patients with SMI over 10 years, followed by the general population lipid algorithm (13 additional QALYs and a cost saving of £46 000). The general population lipid and SMI-specific BMI algorithms performed equally well. The ease and acceptability of use of an SMI-specific BMI algorithm (blood tests not required) makes it an attractive algorithm to implement in clinical settings. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  16. [Cardiovascular risk factors in women].

    PubMed

    Cengel, Atiye

    2010-03-01

    It is estimated that at least 80% of patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) have conventional risk factors and optimization of these risk factors can reduce morbidity and mortality due to this disease considerably. Contemporary women have increased burden of some of these risk factors such as obesity, metabolic syndrome and smoking. Turkish women have a worse CV risk profile than Turkish men in some aspects. Risk stratification systems such as Framingham have a tendency of underestimating the risk in women. Coronary artery disease remains in vessel wall for a longer period of time in women; therefore obstructive disease appear later in their lifespan necessitating risk stratification systems for estimating their lifetime risk.

  17. Visit-to-Visit Blood Pressure Variability and Arterial Stiffness Independently Predict Cardiovascular Risk Category in a General Population: Results from the SEPHAR II Study.

    PubMed

    Darabont, Roxana; Tautu, Oana-Florentina; Pop, Dana; Fruntelata, Ana; Deaconu, Alexandru; Onciul, Sebastian; Salaru, Delia; Micoara, Adolf; Dorobantu, Maria

    2015-01-01

    The aim of our study was to evaluate visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BPV) and the association of this parameter with cardiovascular risk determinants, according to the SEPHAR II survey. Following a selection based on the multi-stratified proportional sampling procedure, a total of 1975 subjects who gave informed consent were evaluated by means of a questionnaire, anthropometric, blood pressure (BP) and arterial stiffness measurements (pulse wave velocity and augmentation index), 12-lead ECG recordings, and blood and urine analysis. BPV was quantified in terms of the standard deviation (SD) of the mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) and high BPV was defined as SBP-SD above the 4th quartile. Total cardiovascular risk was assessed by the 2013 ESH/ESC risk stratification chart. Mean BP was 132.37/82.01 mmHg. Mean systolic BPV was 6.16 mmHg, with 24.62% of values above the 75th percentile (8.48 mmHg). Factors found to be associated with high systolic BPV were age, SBP, pulse pressure, total and LDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, visceral obesity, diabetes mellitus, metabolic syndrome and increased aortic stiffness. In addition, in the hypertensive group high BPV was associated with the severity of hypertension and a lack of treatment control. Both visit-to-visit systolic BPV and aortic stiffness proved to be positively and independently correlated with the risk category. Based on these parameters it was possible to predict with 72.6% accuracy the probability of finding subjects in a high and very high cardiovascular risk category. The results of our study indicate a notable prevalence of high BPV, affecting almost a quarter of the Romanian adult population. Visit-to-visit systolic BPV and arterial stiffness are strongly correlated and together might contribute to the improvement of cardiovascular risk prediction models.

  18. Excess pressure integral predicts cardiovascular events independent of other risk factors in the conduit artery functional evaluation substudy of Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial.

    PubMed

    Davies, Justin E; Lacy, Peter; Tillin, Therese; Collier, David; Cruickshank, J Kennedy; Francis, Darrel P; Malaweera, Anura; Mayet, Jamil; Stanton, Alice; Williams, Bryan; Parker, Kim H; McG Thom, Simon A; Hughes, Alun D

    2014-07-01

    Excess pressure integral (XSPI), a new index of surplus work performed by the left ventricle, can be calculated from blood pressure waveforms and may indicate circulatory dysfunction. We investigated whether XSPI predicted future cardiovascular events and target organ damage in treated hypertensive individuals. Radial blood pressure waveforms were acquired by tonometry in 2069 individuals (aged, 63±8 years) in the Conduit Artery Functional Evaluation (CAFE) substudy of the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial (ASCOT). Measurements of left ventricular mass index (n=862) and common carotid artery intima media thickness (n=923) were also performed. XSPI and the integral of reservoir pressure were lower in people treated with amlodipine±perindopril than in those treated with atenolol±bendroflumethiazide, although brachial systolic blood pressure was similar. A total of 134 cardiovascular events accrued during a median 3.4 years of follow-up; XSPI was a significant predictor of cardiovascular events after adjustment for age and sex, and this relationship was unaffected by adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors or Framingham risk score. XSPI, central systolic blood pressure, central augmentation pressure, central pulse pressure, and integral of reservoir pressure were correlated with left ventricular mass index, but only XSPI, augmentation pressure, and central pulse pressure were associated positively with carotid artery intima media thickness. Associations between left ventricular mass index, XSPI, and integral of reservoir pressure and carotid artery intima media thickness and XSPI were unaffected by multivariable adjustment for other covariates. XSPI is a novel indicator of cardiovascular dysfunction and independently predicts cardiovascular events and targets organ damage in a prospective clinical trial.

  19. Assessment of total cardiovascular risk using WHO/ISH risk prediction charts in three low and middle income countries in Asia.

    PubMed

    Otgontuya, Dugee; Oum, Sophal; Buckley, Brian S; Bonita, Ruth

    2013-06-05

    Recent research has used cardiovascular risk scores intended to estimate "total cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk" in individuals to assess the distribution of risk within populations. The research suggested that the adoption of the total risk approach, in comparison to treatment decisions being based on the level of a single risk factor, could lead to reductions in expenditure on preventive cardiovascular drug treatment in low- and middle-income countries. So that the patient benefit associated with savings is highlighted. This study used data from national STEPS surveys (STEPwise Approach to Surveillance) conducted between 2005 and 2010 in Cambodia, Malaysia and Mongolia of men and women aged 40-64 years. The study compared the differences and implications of various approaches to risk estimation at a population level using the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk score charts. To aid interpretation and adjustment of scores and inform treatment in individuals, the charts are accompanied by practice notes about risk factors not included in the risk score calculations. Total risk was calculated amongst the populations using the charts alone and also adjusted according to these notes. Prevalence of traditional single risk factors was also calculated. The prevalence of WHO/ISH "high CVD risk" (≥20% chance of developing a cardiovascular event over 10 years) of 6%, 2.3% and 1.3% in Mongolia, Malaysia and Cambodia, respectively, is in line with recent research when charts alone are used. However, these proportions rise to 33.3%, 20.8% and 10.4%, respectively when individuals with blood pressure > = 160/100 mm/Hg and/or hypertension medication are attributed to "high risk". Of those at "moderate risk" (10- < 20% chance of developing a cardio vascular event over 10 years), 100%, 94.3% and 30.1%, respectively are affected by at least one risk-increasing factor. Of all individuals, 44.6%, 29.0% and 15.0% are affected by

  20. Lifetime Risks of Cardiovascular Disease

    PubMed Central

    Berry, Jarett D.; Dyer, Alan; Cai, Xuan; Garside, Daniel B.; Ning, Hongyan; Thomas, Avis; Greenland, Philip; Van Horn, Linda; Tracy, Russell P.; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND The lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease have not been reported across the age spectrum in black adults and white adults. METHODS We conducted a meta-analysis at the individual level using data from 18 cohort studies involving a total of 257,384 black men and women and white men and women whose risk factors for cardiovascular disease were measured at the ages of 45, 55, 65, and 75 years. Blood pressure, cholesterol level, smoking status, and diabetes status were used to stratify participants according to risk factors into five mutually exclusive categories. The remaining lifetime risks of cardiovascular events were estimated for participants in each category at each age, with death free of cardiovascular disease treated as a competing event. RESULTS We observed marked differences in the lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease across risk-factor strata. Among participants who were 55 years of age, those with an optimal risk-factor profile (total cholesterol level, <180 mg per deciliter [4.7 mmol per liter]; blood pressure, <120 mm Hg systolic and 80 mm Hg diastolic; nonsmoking status; and nondiabetic status) had substantially lower risks of death from cardiovascular disease through the age of 80 years than participants with two or more major risk factors (4.7% vs. 29.6% among men, 6.4% vs. 20.5% among women). Those with an optimal risk-factor profile also had lower lifetime risks of fatal coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction (3.6% vs. 37.5% among men, <1% vs. 18.3% among women) and fatal or nonfatal stroke (2.3% vs. 8.3% among men, 5.3% vs. 10.7% among women). Similar trends within risk-factor strata were observed among blacks and whites and across diverse birth cohorts. CONCLUSIONS Differences in risk-factor burden translate into marked differences in the lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease, and these differences are consistent across race and birth cohorts. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.) PMID

  1. [Practicality of cardiovascular risk functions].

    PubMed

    Marrugat, Jaume; Elosua, Roberto; Icaza, Gloria; Morales-Salinas, Alberto; Dégano, Irene R

    2016-12-13

    Cardiovascular diseases prevention strategies require refinement because their incidence decreases very slowly. Risk functions were developed by including classical cardiovascular risk factors (age, sex, smoking, diabetes, blood pressure, and basic lipid profile) in cohorts followed more than 10 years. They are reasonably precise for population screening of, principally, coronary artery disease risk, required in all cardiovascular primary prevention clinical guidelines. Coronary artery disease risk functions classify patients in risk strata to concentrate the maximum therapeutic and life style effort in the highest risk groups, in which the number needed to treat and cost-effectiveness are optimal. By communicating the relative risk and vascular age to patients, increased motivation to comply with the proposed drug and life-style modifications can be achieved. Approximately 20% of the population 35 to 74 years old has an intermediate risk that requires reclassification into high or low risk because they concentrate 35% of population coronary artery disease events. Several biomarkers (biochemical, genetic or imaging) are being tested to improve coronary artery disease risk functions precision. Computerized systems of health facilities should incorporate, automated risk calculation in order to support the preventive task of health care providers.

  2. Cross-comparison of diet quality indices for predicting chronic disease risk: findings from the Observation of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Luxembourg (ORISCAV-LUX) study.

    PubMed

    Alkerwi, Ala'a; Vernier, Cédric; Crichton, Georgina E; Sauvageot, Nicolas; Shivappa, Nitin; Hébert, James R

    2015-01-28

    The scientific community has become increasingly interested in the overall quality of diets rather than in single food-based or single nutrient-based approaches to examine diet-disease relationships. Despite the plethora of indices used to measure diet quality, there still exist questions as to which of these can best predict health outcomes. The present study aimed to compare the ability of five diet quality indices, namely the Recommendation Compliance Index (RCI), Diet Quality Index-International (DQI-I), Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH), Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), and Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII), to detect changes in chronic disease risk biomarkers. Nutritional data from 1352 participants, aged 18-69 years, of the Luxembourg nationwide cross-sectional ORISCAV-LUX (Observation of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Luxembourg) study, 2007-8, were used to calculate adherence to the diet quality index. General linear modelling was performed to assess trends in biomarkers according to adherence to different dietary patterns, after adjustment for age, sex, education level, smoking status, physical activity and energy intake. Among the five selected diet quality indices, the MDS exhibited the best ability to detect changes in numerous risk markers and was significantly associated with lower levels of LDL-cholesterol, apo B, diastolic blood pressure, renal function indicators (creatinine and uric acid) and liver enzymes (serum γ-glutamyl-transpeptidase and glutamate-pyruvate transaminase). Compared with other dietary patterns, higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet is associated with a favourable cardiometabolic, hepatic and renal risk profile. Diets congruent with current universally accepted guidelines may be insufficient to prevent chronic diseases. Clinicians and public health decision makers should be aware of needs to improve the current dietary guidelines.

  3. Cardiovascular risks of antiretroviral therapies.

    PubMed

    Mondy, Kristin; Tebas, Pablo

    2007-01-01

    The use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has resulted in sustained reductions in mortality from HIV infection. In recent years, HAART has also been associated with metabolic complications that may increase patients' cardiovascular disease risk. Recent studies have begun to support a more complex interaction between HAART, HIV infection itself, and other traditional social and immunologic factors that may predispose patients to premature cardiovascular disease. Substantial progress has been made in the development of newer antiretroviral therapies that have a better metabolic profile with respect to dyslipidemia, hyperglycemia, and lipodystrophy. Optimal selection of metabolically neutral antiretroviral therapies, together with aggressive management of other modifiable coronary risk factors, may improve cardiovascular disease risk in the long term.

  4. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

    2014-01-01

    In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

  5. Managers’ Practices Related to Work–Family Balance Predict Employee Cardiovascular Risk and Sleep Duration in Extended Care Settings

    PubMed Central

    Berkman, Lisa F.; Buxton, Orfeu; Ertel, Karen; Okechukwu, Cassandra

    2012-01-01

    An increasing proportion of U.S. workers have family caregiving responsibilities. The purpose of this study was to determine whether employees in extended care settings whose managers are supportive, open, and creative about work–family needs, such as flexibility with work schedules, have lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and longer sleep than their less supported counterparts. From semistructured interviews with managers, we constructed a work–family balance score of manager openness and creativity in dealing with employee work–family needs. Trained interviewers collected survey and physiologic outcome data from 393 employees whose managers had a work–family score. Employee outcomes are sleep duration (actigraphy) and CVD risk assessed by blood cholesterol, high glycosylated hemoglobin/diabetes, blood pressure/hypertension, body-mass index, and tobacco consumption. Employees whose managers were less supportive slept less (29 min/day) and were over twice as likely to have 2 or more CVD risk factors (ORs = 2.1 and 2.03 for low and middle manager work–family scores, respectively) than employees whose managers were most open and creative. Employees who provide direct patient care exhibited particularly elevated CVD risk associated with low manager work–family score. Managers’ attitudes and practices may affect employee health, including sleep duration and CVD risk. PMID:20604637

  6. Managers' practices related to work-family balance predict employee cardiovascular risk and sleep duration in extended care settings.

    PubMed

    Berkman, Lisa F; Buxton, Orfeu; Ertel, Karen; Okechukwu, Cassandra

    2010-07-01

    An increasing proportion of U.S. workers have family caregiving responsibilities. The purpose of this study was to determine whether employees in extended care settings whose managers are supportive, open, and creative about work-family needs, such as flexibility with work schedules, have lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and longer sleep than their less supported counterparts. From semistructured interviews with managers, we constructed a work-family balance score of manager openness and creativity in dealing with employee work-family needs. Trained interviewers collected survey and physiologic outcome data from 393 employees whose managers had a work-family score. Employee outcomes are sleep duration (actigraphy) and CVD risk assessed by blood cholesterol, high glycosylated hemoglobin/diabetes, blood pressure/hypertension, body-mass index, and tobacco consumption. Employees whose managers were less supportive slept less (29 min/day) and were over twice as likely to have 2 or more CVD risk factors (ORs = 2.1 and 2.03 for low and middle manager work-family scores, respectively) than employees whose managers were most open and creative. Employees who provide direct patient care exhibited particularly elevated CVD risk associated with low manager work-family score. Managers' attitudes and practices may affect employee health, including sleep duration and CVD risk.

  7. Contemporary Mortality Risk Prediction for Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Results from 588,398 Procedures in the National Cardiovascular Data Registry

    PubMed Central

    Peterson, Eric D.; Dai, David; DeLong, Elizabeth R.; Brennan, J. Matthew; Singh, Mandeep; Rao, Sunil V.; Shaw, Richard E; Roe, Matthew T.; Ho, Kalon K. L.; Klein, Lloyd W.; Krone, Ronald J.; Weintraub, William S.; Brindis, Ralph G.; Rumsfeld, John S.; Spertus, John A.

    2014-01-01

    Objective We sought to create contemporary models for predicting mortality risk following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Background There is a need to identify PCI risk factors and accurately quantify procedural risks to facilitate comparative effectiveness research, provider comparisons, and informed patient decision making. Methods Data from 181,775 procedures performed from January 2004 to March 2006 were used to develop risk models based on pre-procedural and/or angiographic factors using logistic regression. These models were independently evaluated in two validation cohorts: contemporary (n=121,183, January 2004 to March 2006) and prospective (n=285,440, March 2006 to March 2007). Results Overall, PCI in-hospital mortality was 1.27%, ranging from 0.65% in elective PCI to 4.81% in STEMI patients. Multiple pre-procedural clinical factors were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. Angiographic variables provided only modest incremental information to pre-procedural risk assessments. The overall NCDR model, as well as a simplified NCDR risk score (based on 8 key pre-procedure factors), had excellent discrimination (c-index 0.93 and 0.91, respectively). Discrimination and calibration of both risk tools were retained among specific patient subgroups, in the validation samples, and when used to estimate 30-day mortality rates among Medicare patients. Conclusions Risks for early mortality following PCI can be accurately predicted in contemporary practice. Incorporation of such risk tools should facilitate research, clinical, and policy applications. PMID:20430263

  8. The FTO Gene rs9939609 Polymorphism Predicts Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Chibo; Mou, Sihua; Pan, Chunqin

    2013-01-01

    Objective Genome-wide association studies have shown that variance in the fat mass- and obesity- associated gene (FTO) is associated with risk of obesity in Europeans and Asians. Since obesity is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), several studies have investigated the association between variant in the FTO gene and CVD risk, with inconsistent results. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis to clarify the association of rs9939609 variant (or its proxies [r2>0.90]) in the FTO gene with CVD risk. Methods Published literature from PubMed and Embase was retrieved. Pooled odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated using the fixed- or random- effects model. Results A total of 10 studies (comprising 19,153 CVD cases and 103,720 controls) were included in the meta-analysis. The results indicated that the rs9939609 variant was significantly associated with CVD risk (odds ratio = 1.18, 95% confidence interval = 1.07–1.30, p = 0.001 [Z test], I2 = 80.6%, p<0.001 [heterogeneity]), and there was an insignificant change after adjustment for body mass index (BMI) and other conventional CVD risk factors (odds ratio = 1.16, 95% confidence interval = 1.05–1.27, p = 0.003 [Z test], I2 = 75.4%, p<0.001 [heterogeneity]). Conclusions The present meta-analysis confirmed the significant association of the rs9939609 variant in the FTO gene with CVD risk, which was independent of BMI and other conventional CVD risk factors. PMID:23977173

  9. The FTO gene rs9939609 polymorphism predicts risk of cardiovascular disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Liu, Chibo; Mou, Sihua; Pan, Chunqin

    2013-01-01

    Genome-wide association studies have shown that variance in the fat mass- and obesity- associated gene (FTO) is associated with risk of obesity in Europeans and Asians. Since obesity is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), several studies have investigated the association between variant in the FTO gene and CVD risk, with inconsistent results. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis to clarify the association of rs9939609 variant (or its proxies [r (2)>0.90]) in the FTO gene with CVD risk. Published literature from PubMed and Embase was retrieved. Pooled odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated using the fixed- or random- effects model. A total of 10 studies (comprising 19,153 CVD cases and 103,720 controls) were included in the meta-analysis. The results indicated that the rs9939609 variant was significantly associated with CVD risk (odds ratio = 1.18, 95% confidence interval = 1.07-1.30, p = 0.001 [Z test], I (2) = 80.6%, p<0.001 [heterogeneity]), and there was an insignificant change after adjustment for body mass index (BMI) and other conventional CVD risk factors (odds ratio = 1.16, 95% confidence interval = 1.05-1.27, p = 0.003 [Z test], I (2) = 75.4%, p<0.001 [heterogeneity]). The present meta-analysis confirmed the significant association of the rs9939609 variant in the FTO gene with CVD risk, which was independent of BMI and other conventional CVD risk factors.

  10. [Usefulness of imaging techniques and novel biomarkers in the prediction of cardiovascular risk in patients with chronic kidney disease in Spain: the NEFRONA project].

    PubMed

    Junyent, M; Martínez, M; Borrás, M; Bertriu, A; Coll, B; Craver, L; Marco, M P; Sarró, F; Valdivielso, J M; Fernández, E

    2010-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Cardiovascular risk assessment in this population is hampered by the failure of traditional risk factors to fully account for the elevated CVD risk, mainly due to the reverse epidemiology effect, and the presence of risk factors specifically related to uremia. Hereby, we present the protocol of a prospective study aimed to assess the predictive value of imaging techniques and biomarkers for CVD in patients with CKD. From November 2009, 2.661 asymptomatic adult patients with stages 3-5D CKD will be recruited from nephrology services and dialysis units throughout Spain. Eight hundred forty-three participants without CKD (control group) will be also recruited. During the follow-up, CVD events and mortality will be recorded from all CKD patients. One trained itinerant team will carry out a carotid ultrasound to assess intima-media thickness and presence of plaques. A composite atherosclerosis score will be constructed based on carotid ultrasound data and ankle-brachial index. Presence and type of calcifications will be assessed in carotid, femoral and brachial arteries, and in cardiac valves, by ultrasound. Finally, blood samples will be collected from all participants to study biomarkers. The NEFRONA study will allow us to examine the usefulness of imaging techniques and biomarkers to assess atherosclerosis development and their predictive value in a Spanish population with CKD.

  11. Predicted impact of various clinical practice strategies on cardiovascular risk for the treatment of hypertension: a clinical trial simulation study.

    PubMed

    Jin, Yuyan; Bies, Robert; Gastonguay, Marc R; Wang, Yaning; Stockbridge, Norman; Gobburu, Jogarao; Madabushi, Rajanikanth

    2014-12-01

    Hypertension control rate in the US is low with the current clinical practice (JNC 7) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) remain is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality. A 6-month clinical trial simulation case study testing different virtual clinical practice strategies was performed in an attempt to increase the control rate. The CVD risk was calculated using the Framingham CVD risk model at baseline and 6 months post-treatment. The estimated CVD events for the baseline patient sample without any treatment was 998 (95% CI: 967-1,026) over 6 months in 100,000 patients. Treating these patients for 6 months with current clinical practice, high dose strategy, high dose with low target BP strategy resulted in a reduction in CVD events of 191(95% CI: 169-205), 284 (95% CI: 261-305), and 353 (95% CI: 331-375), respectively. Hence the two alternative strategies resulted in an increase in treatment effect by 49% (95%CI: 44-59%) and 85% (95%CI: 79-99%), respectively. The increased safety with the current low dose strategy may potentially be offset by increased CVD risk in the time necessary to control hypertension.

  12. Total adult cardiovascular risk in Central America.

    PubMed

    Barceló, A; Gregg, E W; Wong-McClure, R; Meiners, M; Ramirez-Zea, M; Segovia, J

    2015-12-01

    To evaluate prevalence of cardiovascular risk among adults 40 years and older using population-based samples from six Central American countries. Risk factors were derived from a multi-national cross-sectional survey implemented in 2003-2006, which included a sample of 4 202 participants aged 40 years and older. Charts produced by the World Health Organization and the International Society of Hypertension for the Region of the Americas sub-region B were used to predict risk on the basis of factors including age, sex, blood pressure, total serum cholesterol, smoking status, and diabetes status. Overall, 85.9% of the population was classified as having < 10% risk for cardiovascular events during the following ten years. The likelihood of being in this risk group decreased with age in both males and females. Four percent of respondents were identified as having > 20% risk. More than 75% of those with a 30-40% risk had previously been identified by health services, and an additional 23% were identified during the study, suggesting they could be diagnosed by opportunistic screening for diabetes, hypertension and hypercholesterolemia. Results of bivariate analysis showed that respondents who were male, older, obese and/or less educated had higher risk for cardiovascular events, but a multivariate analysis including education indicated highest risks for older, obese, and less educated females. Measuring cardiovascular disease risk identifies most cases of (or at risk for) diabetes, hypertension and hypercholesterolemia among adults 40 years and older. This strategy can facilitate implementation of control programs and decrease disabilities and premature mortality.

  13. Is the 90th Percentile Adequate? The Optimal Waist Circumference Cutoff Points for Predicting Cardiovascular Risks in 124,643 15-Year-Old Taiwanese Adolescents.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jason Jiunshiou; Ho, ChinYu; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Huang, Nicole; Yeh, Jade Chienyu; deFerranti, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Adolescent obesity has increased to alarming proportions globally. However, few studies have investigated the optimal waist circumference (WC) of Asian adolescents. This study sought to establish the optimal WC cutoff points that identify a cluster of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) among 15-year-old ethnically Chinese adolescents. This study was a regional population-based study on the CVRFs among adolescents who enrolled in all the senior high schools in Taipei City, Taiwan, between 2011 and 2014. Four cross-sectional health examinations of first-year senior high school (grade 10) students were conducted from September to December of each year. A total of 124,643 adolescents aged 15 (boys: 63,654; girls: 60,989) were recruited. Participants who had at least three of five CVRFs were classified as the high-risk group. We used receiver-operating characteristic curves and the area under the curve (AUC) to determine the optimal WC cutoff points and the accuracy of WC in predicting high cardiovascular risk. WC was a good predictor for high cardiovascular risk for both boys (AUC: 0.845, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.833-0.857) and girls (AUC: 0.763, 95% CI: 0.731-0.795). The optimal WC cutoff points were ≥78.9 cm for boys (77th percentile) and ≥70.7 cm for girls (77th percentile). Adolescents with normal weight and an abnormal WC were more likely to be in the high cardiovascular risk group (odds ratio: 3.70, 95% CI: 2.65-5.17) compared to their peers with normal weight and normal WC. The optimal WC cutoff point of 15-year-old Taiwanese adolescents for identifying CVRFs should be the 77th percentile; the 90th percentile of the WC might be inadequate. The high WC criteria can help health professionals identify higher proportion of the adolescents with cardiovascular risks and refer them for further evaluations and interventions. Adolescents' height, weight and WC should be measured as a standard practice in routine health checkups.

  14. Usefulness of fetuin-A to predict risk for cardiovascular disease among patients with obstructive sleep apnea.

    PubMed

    Liu, Alice; Lamendola, Cindy; Ariel, Danit; Abbasi, Fahim; Kim, Sun H; Cardell, James; Tomasso, Vanessa; Xu, Shiming; Patel, Shailja; Mojaddidi, Hafasa; Grove, Kaylene; Kushida, Clete A; Reaven, Gerald M

    2015-07-15

    Patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) are at increased risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Fetuin-A, a novel hepatokine, has been associated with the metabolic syndrome (MetS), insulin resistance, and type 2 diabetes mellitus, all of which are highly prevalent in patients with OSA and associated with increased CVD risk. The goal of this study was to determine whether fetuin-A could be involved in the pathogenesis of CVD risk in patients with OSA, through relations of fetuin-A with MetS components and/or insulin resistance. Overweight or obese, nondiabetic volunteers (n = 120) were diagnosed with OSA by in-laboratory nocturnal polysomnography. Steady-state plasma glucose concentrations derived during the insulin suppression test were used to quantify insulin-mediated glucose uptake; higher steady-state plasma glucose concentrations indicated greater insulin resistance. Fasting plasma fetuin-A and lipoprotein concentrations were measured. Whereas neither the prevalence of MetS nor the number of MetS components was associated with tertiles of fetuin-A concentrations, the lipoprotein components of MetS, triglycerides and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, increased (p <0.01) and decreased (p <0.05), respectively, across fetuin-A tertiles. Additionally, comprehensive lipoprotein analysis revealed that very low density lipoprotein (VLDL) particles and VLDL subfractions (VLDL1+2 and VLDL3) were increased across fetuin-A tertiles. In contrast, neither insulin resistance nor sleep measurements related to OSA were found to be modified by fetuin-A concentrations. In conclusion, abnormalities of lipoprotein metabolism, but not MetS or insulin resistance per se, may represent a mechanism by which fetuin-A contributes to increased CVD risk in patients with OSA. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. ANGPTL4 variants E40K and T266M are associated with lower fasting triglyceride levels and predicts cardiovascular disease risk in Type 2 diabetic Tunisian population.

    PubMed

    Abid, Kaouthar; Trimeche, Thouraya; Mili, Donia; Msolli, Mohamed Amine; Trabelsi, Imen; Nouira, Semir; Kenani, Abderraouf

    2016-03-23

    Angiopoietin-like protein 4 (ANGPTL4) is a metabolic factor that increases plasma triglyceride levels by inhibiting lipoprotein lipase (LPL). The objective of this study was to investigate the association of ANGPTL4 variants (E40K and T266M) with triglyceride levels and with cardiovascular risk factors, such as metabolic syndrome (MetS) and obesity in type 2 diabetic Tunisian population. We investigated the effect of the tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) rs1044250 (T266M) and rs116843064 (E40K) with triglyceride (TG) levels and CAD risk factors in a cohort of 220 patients undergoing coronary angiography for the evaluation of stable CAD, all of whom had (type 2 diabetes) T2D and were at least overweight. Multivariate logistic regressions were performed on association studies. TT genotype of rs1044250 (T266M variant) showed a protective effect on CVD risk in CAD group patients (OR 1.92, 95% CI 0.601.42, p =0.05) compared with control Group patients (OR 1.17, 95% CI 0.70-1.66, p = 0.72). Likewise, GA genotype of rs116843064 (E40K variant): (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.54-1.65, p =0.01) for the CAD group compared with control Group patients (OR 1.12, 95% CI 0.68-1.74, p = 0.074). ANGPTL4 variants are associated with, not only lower fasting triglyceride levels, but also a decreased cardiovascular risk in T2D Tunisian patients. So, T266M and E40K polymorphism predicts cardiovascular disease risk in Type 2 diabetic Tunisian population.

  16. Magnetic Resonance Volumetry: Prediction of Subjective Memory Complaints and Mild Cognitive Impairment, and Associations with Genetic and Cardiovascular Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Rogne, Sigbjørn; Vangberg, Torgil; Eldevik, Petter; Wikran, Gry; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B.; Schirmer, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    Background/Aims Subjective memory complaints (SMC) are strong predictors of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and subsequent Alzheimer's disease. Our aims were to see if fully automated cerebral MR volume measurements could distinguish subjects with SMC and MCI from controls, and if probable parental late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD), apolipoprotein E ε4 genotype, total plasma homocysteine, and cardiovascular risk factors were associated with MR volumetric findings. Methods 198 stroke-free subjects comprised the control (n = 58), the SMC (n = 25) and the MCI (n = 115) groups. Analysis of covariance and receiver operating characteristic curve was used to see if MR volumetry distinguished subjects with SMC and MCI from controls. Results Subjects with SMC and MCI had significantly larger lateral ventricles and smaller hippocampal volumes than controls. The area under the curve in subjects with SMC and MCI compared to that of controls was less than 0.68 for all volumes of intracranial structures. There was an interaction between sex and probable parental LOAD for hippocampal volume, with a significant association between probable parental LOAD and hippocampal volume in women. Conclusions Fully automated MR volumetry can distinguish subjects with SMC and MCI from controls in a general population, but insufficiently to assume a clear clinical role. Research on sporadic LOAD might benefit from a sex-specific search for genetic risk factors. PMID:28101099

  17. Heterogeneous associations between smoking and a wide range of initial presentations of cardiovascular disease in 1937360 people in England: lifetime risks and implications for risk prediction.

    PubMed

    Pujades-Rodriguez, Mar; George, Julie; Shah, Anoop Dinesh; Rapsomaniki, Eleni; Denaxas, Spiros; West, Robert; Smeeth, Liam; Timmis, Adam; Hemingway, Harry

    2015-02-01

    It is not known how smoking affects the initial presentation of a wide range of chronic and acute cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), nor the extent to which associations are heterogeneous. We estimated the lifetime cumulative incidence of 12 CVD presentations, and examined associations with smoking and smoking cessation. Cohort study of 1.93 million people aged ≥30years, with no history of CVD, in 1997-2010. Individuals were drawn from linked electronic health records in England, covering primary care, hospitalizations, myocardial infarction (MI) registry and cause-specific mortality (the CALIBER programme). During 11.6 million person-years of follow-up, 114859 people had an initial non-fatal or fatal CVD presentation. By age 90 years, current vs never smokers' lifetime risks varied from 0.4% vs 0.2% for subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH), to 8.9% vs 2.6% for peripheral arterial disease (PAD). Current smoking showed no association with cardiac arrest or sudden cardiac death [hazard ratio (HR)=1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91-1.19).The strength of association differed markedly according to disease type: stable angina (HR=1.08, 95% CI 1.01-1.15),transient ischaemic attack (HR=1.41, 95% CI 1.28-1.55), unstable angina (HR=1.54, 95% CI 1.38-1.72), intracerebral haemorrhage (HR=1.61, 95% CI 1.37-1.89), heart failure (HR=1.62, 95% CI 1.47-1.79), ischaemic stroke (HR=1.90, 95% CI 1.72-2.10), MI (HR=2.32, 95% CI 2.20-2.45), SAH (HR= 2.70, 95% CI 2.27-3.21), PAD (HR=5.16, 95% CI 4.80-5.54) and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) (HR=5.18, 95% CI 4.61-5.82). Population-attributable fractions were lower for women than men for unheralded coronary death, ischaemic stroke, PAD and AAA. Ten years after quitting smoking, the risks of PAD, AAA (in men) and unheralded coronary death remained increased (HR=1.36, 1.47 and 2.74, respectively). The heterogeneous associations of smoking with different CVD presentations suggests different underlying mechanisms and have important

  18. Utility of a Genetic Risk Score to Predict Recurrent Cardiovascular Events 1 Year After an Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Pooled Analysis of the RISCA, PRAXY, and TRIUMPH Cohorts

    PubMed Central

    Labos, Christopher; Martinez, Sara C.; Leo Wang, Rui Hao; Lenzini, Petra A.; Pilote, Louise; Bogaty, Peter; Brophy, James M.; Engert, James C.; Cresci, Sharon; Thanassoulis, George

    2015-01-01

    Background Limited evidence exists regarding the utility of genetic risk scores (GRS) in predicting recurrent cardiovascular events after acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We sought to determine whether a GRS would predict early recurrent cardiovascular events within 1 year of ACS. Methods & Results Participants admitted with acute coronary syndromes from the RISCA, PRAXY, and TRIUMPH cohorts, were genotyped for 30 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) or myocardial infarction (MI) in prior genome wide association studies. A 30 SNP CAD/MI GRS was constructed. The primary endpoint was defined as all-cause mortality, recurrent ACS or cardiac re-hospitalization within 1 year of ACS admission. Results across all cohorts for the 30 SNP CAD/MI GRS were pooled using a random-effects model. There were 1040 patients from the RISCA cohort, 691 patients from the PRAXY cohort, and 1772 patients from the TRIUMPH cohort included in the analysis and 389 occurrences of the primary endpoint of recurrent events at 1-year post-ACS. In unadjusted and fully adjusted analyses, a 30 SNP GRS was not significantly associated with recurrent events (HR per allele 0.97 (95%CI 0.91–1.03) for RISCA, HR 0.99 (95%CI 0.93–1.05) for PRAXY, 0.98 (95%CI 0.94–1.02) for TRIUMPH, and 0.98 (95%CI 0.95–1.01) for the pooled analysis). Addition of this GRS to the GRACE risk model did not significantly improve risk prediction. Conclusion The 30 MI SNP GRS was not associated with recurrent events 1-year post ACS in pooled analyses across cohorts and did not improve risk discrimination or reclassification indices. Our results suggest that the genetic etiology of early events post-ACS may differ from later events. PMID:26232166

  19. Utility of a genetic risk score to predict recurrent cardiovascular events 1 year after an acute coronary syndrome: A pooled analysis of the RISCA, PRAXY, and TRIUMPH cohorts.

    PubMed

    Labos, Christopher; Martinez, Sara C; Leo Wang, Rui Hao; Lenzini, Petra A; Pilote, Louise; Bogaty, Peter; Brophy, James M; Engert, James C; Cresci, Sharon; Thanassoulis, George

    2015-09-01

    Limited evidence exists regarding the utility of genetic risk scores (GRS) in predicting recurrent cardiovascular events after acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We sought to determine whether a GRS would predict early recurrent cardiovascular events within 1 year of ACS. Participants admitted with acute coronary syndromes from the RISCA, PRAXY, and TRIUMPH cohorts, were genotyped for 30 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) or myocardial infarction (MI) in prior genome wide association studies. A 30 SNP CAD/MI GRS was constructed. The primary endpoint was defined as all-cause mortality, recurrent ACS or cardiac re-hospitalization within 1 year of ACS admission. Results across all cohorts for the 30 SNP CAD/MI GRS were pooled using a random-effects model. There were 1040 patients from the RISCA cohort, 691 patients from the PRAXY cohort, and 1772 patients from the TRIUMPH cohort included in the analysis and 389 occurrences of the primary endpoint of recurrent events at 1-year post-ACS. In unadjusted and fully adjusted analyses, a 30 SNP GRS was not significantly associated with recurrent events (HR per allele 0.97 (95%CI 0.91-1.03) for RISCA, HR 0.99 (95%CI 0.93-1.05) for PRAXY, 0.98 (95%CI 0.94-1.02) for TRIUMPH, and 0.98 (95%CI 0.95-1.01) for the pooled analysis). Addition of this GRS to the GRACE risk model did not significantly improve risk prediction. The 30 MI SNP GRS was not associated with recurrent events 1-year post ACS in pooled analyses across cohorts and did not improve risk discrimination or reclassification indices. Our results suggest that the genetic etiology of early events post-ACS may differ from later events. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Anabolic steroids and cardiovascular risk.

    PubMed

    Angell, Peter; Chester, Neil; Green, Danny; Somauroo, John; Whyte, Greg; George, Keith

    2012-02-01

    Recent reports from needle exchange programmes and other public health initiatives have suggested growing use of anabolic steroids (AS) in the UK and other countries. Data indicate that AS use is not confined to body-builders or high-level sportsmen. Use has spread to professionals working in emergency services, casual fitness enthusiasts and subelite sportsmen and women. Although the precise health consequences of AS use is largely undefined, AS use represents a growing public health concern. Data regarding the consequences of AS use on cardiovascular health are limited to case studies and a modest number of small cohort studies. Numerous case studies have linked AS use with a variety of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events or endpoints, including myocardial infarction, stroke and death. Large-scale epidemiological studies to support these links are absent. Consequently, the impact of AS use upon known CVD risk factors has been studied in relatively small, case-series studies. Data relating AS use to elevated blood pressure, altered lipid profiles and ECG abnormalities have been reported, but are often limited in scope, and other studies have often produced equivocal outcomes. The use of AS has been linked to the appearance of concentric left ventricular hypertrophy as well as endothelial dysfunction but the data again remains controversial. The mechanisms responsible for the negative effect of AS on cardiovascular health are poorly understood, especially in humans. Possibilities include direct effects on myocytes and endothelial cells, reduced intracellular Ca2+ levels, increased release of apoptogenic factors, as well as increased collagen crosslinks between myocytes. New data relating AS use to cardiovascular health risks are emerging, as novel technologies are developed (especially in non-invasive imaging) that can assess physiological structure and function. Continued efforts to fully document the cardiovascular health consequences of AS use is important to

  1. The aged cardiovascular risk patient.

    PubMed

    Priebe, H J

    2000-11-01

    factors contribute most of the increased perioperative risk related to advanced age. First, physiological ageing is accompanied by a progressive decline in resting organ function. Consequently, the reserve capacity to compensate for impaired organ function, drug metabolism and added physiological demands is increasingly impaired. Functional disability will occur more quickly and take longer to be cured. Second, ageing is associated with progressive manifestation of chronic disease which further limits baseline function and accelerates loss of functional reserve in the affected organ. Some of the age-related decline in organ function (e.g. impaired pulmonary gas exchange, diminished renal capacity to conserve and eliminate water and salt, or disturbed thermoregulation) will increase cardiovascular risk. The unpredictable interaction between age-related and disease-associated changes in organ functions, and the altered neurohumoral response to various forms of stress in the elderly may result in a rather atypical clinical presentation of a disease. This may, in turn, delay the correct diagnosis and appropriate treatment and, ultimately, worsen outcome. Third, related to the increased intake of medications and altered pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, the incidence of untoward reactions to medications, anaesthetic agents, and medical and surgical interventions increases with advancing age. On the basis of various clinical studies and observations, it must be concluded that advanced age is an independent predictor of adverse perioperative cardiac outcome. It is to be expected that the aged cardiovascular risk patient carries an even higher perioperative cardiac risk than the younger cardiovascular risk patient. Although knowledge of the physiology of ageing should help reduce age-related complications, successful prophylaxis is hindered by the heterogeneity of age-related changes, unpredictable physiological and pharmacological interactions and diagnostic difficultie

  2. Does coronary artery calcium scoring add to the predictive value of coronary computed tomography angiography for adverse cardiovascular events in low-risk chest pain patients?

    PubMed

    Chang, Anna Marie; Le, Jeffrey; Matsuura, Asako C; Litt, Harold I; Hollander, Judd E

    2011-10-01

    Coronary angiography calcium score (CACS) is included for patients who receive coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) as part of diagnostic testing for low-risk chest pain. Both tests add radiation exposure, and it is unclear whether the combination provides more information than either test alone. The objective was to asses if CACS = 0 determines freedom from coronary artery disease (CAD) and whether the addition of CACS to coronary CT angiography provides additional risk stratification information or helps predict 30-day cardiovascular outcomes. This was a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study at an urban university hospital emergency department (ED), of patients with symptoms suggestive of potential acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and low Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk scores who received coronary CTA. Data collected included demographics and medical history. The main outcome was CAD, defined as the presence of a maximal stenosis >50% on coronary CTA, stratified by CACS results. The secondary outcome was cardiovascular events including death, myocardial infarction, or revascularization at 30 days. Data were analyzed with standard descriptive techniques and relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 1,049 patients were enrolled (median age = 48.1 years; interquartile range [IQR] = 42.4 to 53.3 years); 55% were female, and 63% were black or African American. Of these, 17 of 795 (2.1%) with CACS of 0 had CAD, 16 of 169 patients (9.5%) with CACS of 0.1 to 99 had CAD, 53.3% (32 of 60) with CACS between 100 and 399 had CAD, and 10 of 23 (43.5%) with CACS ≥ 400 had CAD. There was a higher likelihood of significant CAD with increased CACS. Patients who had a calcium score of 0 but still had CAD were more likely to be young (50 years old or less; RR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.01 to 2.96). For the secondary outcome, there were 15 cardiovascular events within 30 days: one patient with CACS = 0 and no CAD (1 of 733; 0

  3. Subclinical coronary atherosclerosis predicts cardiovascular risk in different stages of hypertension: result of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study.

    PubMed

    Erbel, Raimund; Lehmann, Nils; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Churzidse, Sofia; Bauer, Marcus; Kälsch, Hagen; Schmermund, Axel; Moebus, Susanne; Stang, Andreas; Roggenbuck, Ulla; Bröcker-Preuss, Martina; Dragano, Nico; Weimar, Christian; Siegrist, Johannes; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz

    2012-01-01

    Prehypertension is a frequent condition and has been demonstrated to increase cardiovascular risk. However, the association with coronary atherosclerosis as part of target organ damage is not well understood. We investigated the cross-sectional relationship and longitudinal outcome between blood pressure categories and coronary artery calcification (CAC), quantified by electron beam computed tomography, in 4181 participants from the population-based Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study cohort. At baseline, we observed a continuous increase in calcium scores with increasing blood pressure categories. During a median follow-up period of 7.18 years, 115 primary end points (2.8%; fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction) and 152 secondary end points (3.6%; stroke and coronary revascularization) occurred. We observed a continuous increase in age- and risk factor-adjusted secondary endpoints (hazard ratios [95% CI]) with increasing blood pressure categories (referent: normotension) in men: prehypertension, 1.80 (0.53-6.13); stage 1 hypertension, 2.27 (0.66-7.81); and stage 2 hypertension, 4.10 (1.27-13.24) and in women: prehypertension, 1.13 (0.34-3.74); stage 1 hypertension, 2.14 (0.67-6.85); and stage 2 hypertension, 3.33 (1.24-8.90), respectively, but not in primary endpoints. Cumulative event rates were determined by blood pressure categories and the CAC. In prehypertension, the adjusted hazard ratios for all of the events were, for CAC 1 to 99, 2.05 (0.80-5.23; P=0.13); 100 to 399, 3.12 (1.10-8.85; P=0.03); and ≥400, 7.72 (2.67-22.27; P=0.0002). Risk of myocardial infarction and stroke in hypertension but also in prehypertension depends on the degree of CAC. This marker of target-organ damage might be included, when lifestyle modification and pharmacotherapeutic effects in prehypertensive individuals are tested to avoid exposure to risk and increase benefit.

  4. Predicted changes in fatty acid intakes, plasma lipids, and cardiovascular disease risk following replacement of trans fatty acid-containing soybean oil with application-appropriate alternatives.

    PubMed

    Lefevre, Michael; Mensink, Ronald P; Kris-Etherton, Penny M; Petersen, Barbara; Smith, Kim; Flickinger, Brent D

    2012-10-01

    The varied functional requirements satisfied by trans fatty acid (TFA)--containing oils constrains the selection of alternative fats and oils for use as potential replacements in specific food applications. We aimed to model the effects of replacing TFA-containing partially hydrogenated soybean oil (PHSBO) with application-appropriate alternatives on population fatty acid intakes, plasma lipids, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 24-hour dietary recalls for 1999-2002, we selected 25 food categories, accounting for 86 % of soybean oil (SBO) and 79 % of TFA intake for replacement modeling. Before modeling, those in the middle quintile had a mean PHSBO TFA intake of 1.2 % of energy. PHSBO replacement in applications requiring thermal stability by either low-linolenic acid SBO or mid-oleic, low-linolenic acid SBO decreased TFA intake by 0.3 % of energy and predicted CVD risk by 0.7-0.8 %. PHSBO replacement in applications requiring functional properties with palm-based oils reduced TFA intake by 0.8 % of energy, increased palmitic acid intake by 1.0 % of energy, and reduced predicted CVD risk by 0.4 %, whereas replacement with fully hydrogenated interesterified SBO reduced TFA intake by 0.7 % of energy, increased stearic acid intake by 1.0 % of energy, and decreased predicted CVD risk by 1.2 %. PHSBO replacement in both thermal and functional applications reduced TFA intake by 1.0 % of energy and predicted CVD risk by 1.5 %. Based solely on changes in plasma lipids and lipoproteins, all PHSBO replacement models reduced estimated CVD risk, albeit less than previously reported using simpler replacement models.

  5. Red wine and cardiovascular risks.

    PubMed

    Lagrue-Lak-Hal, A H; Andriantsitohaina, R

    2006-12-01

    Numerous epidemiological studies indicate that a moderate intake of alcohol is associated with a reduced risk of morbidity and mortality secondary to cardiovascular diseases. Alcohol intake from any type of alcoholic beverage appears beneficial, but red wine seems to confer additional health benefits because of the presence of red wine polyphenolic compounds (RWPC). On the basis of clinical and experimental data, the favourable effect of moderate intake of alcohol results to its action on lipid profile, hemostatic parameters, and reduction of inflammation markers. RWPC exert numerous effects including antioxidant and free radical properties, anti-aggregatory platelet and anti-thrombotic activities. Moreover, RWPC are powerful vasodilators and contribute to the preservation of the integrity of the endothelium and inhibition of smooth muscle cell proliferation and migration. All these effects of red wine might interfere with atherosclerotic plaque development and stability, vascular thrombosis and occlusion. Although, red wine might be of therapeutic benefit in cardiovascular diseases, prospective controlled clinical studies are still lacking.

  6. Cardiovascular risk assessment: a global perspective.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Dong; Liu, Jing; Xie, Wuxiang; Qi, Yue

    2015-05-01

    An important strategy in primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the early identification of high-risk individuals. Effective implementation of a strategy to identify these individuals in a clinical setting is reliant on the availability of appropriate CVD risk-assessment models and guideline recommendations. Several well-known models for CVD risk assessment have been developed and utilized in the USA and Europe, but might not be suitable for use in other regions or countries. Very few reports have discussed the development of risk-assessment models and recommendations from a global perspective. In this Review, we discuss why risk-assessment methods developed from studies in one geographical region or ethnic population might not be suitable for other regions or populations, and examine the availability and characteristics of predictive models in areas beyond the USA or Europe. In addition, we compare the differences in risk-assessment recommendations outlined in CVD clinical guidelines from developed and developing countries, and consider their potential effect on clinical practice. This overview of cardiovascular risk assessment from a global perspective can potentially guide low-to-middle-income countries in the development or validation of their own CVD risk-assessment models, and the formulation of recommendations in their own clinical guidelines according to local requirements.

  7. Managing cardiovascular risk inpatients with metabolic syndrome.

    PubMed

    Nesto, Richard W

    2005-01-01

    The metabolic syndrome is a constellation of risk factors that contribute to the onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease (CVD). CVD has been identified by the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) as the primary clinical outcome of the metabolic syndrome. Although no algorithm is currently available for estimating the absolute risk of CVD for patients with the metabolic syndrome, screening for cardiovascular (CV) risk in these patients involves testing for lipoprotein abnormalities (namely, an analysis of specific low-density lipoprotein particle numbers) and an assessment of various surrogate markers for subclinical coronary artery disease. Such screening can be used to help predict the development of CVD and thereby allow for effective interventions to help prevent coronary events. Strategies for reducing CV risk in patients with the metabolic syndrome are multifactorial. In addition to placing an emphasis on therapeutic lifestyle changes that increase levels of physical activity, dietary modification, and weight reduction, several pharmacologic therapies are available. One novel approach for managing CV risk in patients with the metabolic syndrome involves the inhibition of the endocannabinoid system, including the use of rimonabant. A review of CV risk factors in patients with the metabolic syndrome is beneficial for clinicians to apply in the care of their patients, along with a discussion about strategies for identifying at-risk patients and managing CVD risk for these patients.

  8. Cardiovascular risk assessment in diabetes mellitus: comparison of the general Framingham risk profile versus the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension risk prediction charts in Arabs--clinical implications.

    PubMed

    Al-Lawati, Jawad A; Barakat, Mohammed N; Al-Lawati, Najla A; Al-Maskari, Masoud Y; Elsayed, Medhat K; Mikhailidis, Dimitri P; Al-Zakwani, Ibrahim S

    2013-07-01

    We estimated the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and its clinical implications among 1 110 Omani patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) using 2 different CVD risk tools: the general Framingham risk profile (GFRP) and the joint World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk prediction charts. The GFRP tool identified higher proportion of patients compared with joint WHO/ISH tool at 10-year CVD risk 10% to <20% and at 20% to <30%. At CVD risk ≥30%, both assessment tools identified similar proportions of patients (22% vs 24%; P=.120). Compared with WHO/ISH charts, the GFRP identified almost double the number of men eligible for aspirin treatment at CVD risk thresholds of ≥10% (86% vs 43%). In women, the proportions were, 66% and 45%, respectively. For statins, the figures were, 60% and 37%, for men and 28% and 36%, for women. In conclusion, the GFRP overestimates the number of patients eligible for primary prevention of CVD compared with the joint WHO/ISH method.

  9. Utility of different cardiovascular disease prediction models in rheumatoid arthritis

    PubMed Central

    Purcarea, A; Sovaila, S; Udrea, G; Rezus, E; Gheorghe, A; Tiu, C; Stoica, V

    2014-01-01

    Background. Rheumatoid arthritis comes with a 30% higher probability for cardiovascular disease than the general population. Current guidelines advocate for early and aggressive primary prevention and treatment of risk factors in high-risk populations but this excess risk is under-addressed in RA in real life. This is mainly due to difficulties met in the correct risk evaluation. This study aims to underline the differences in results of the main cardiovascular risk screening models in the real life rheumatoid arthritis population. Methods. In a cross-sectional study, patients addressed to a tertiary care center in Romania for an biannual follow-up of rheumatoid arthritis and the ones who were considered free of any cardiovascular disease were assessed for subclinical atherosclerosis. Clinical, biological and carotidal ultrasound evaluations were performed. A number of cardiovascular disease prediction scores were performed and differences between tests were noted in regard to subclinical atherosclerosis as defined by the existence of carotid intima media thickness over 0,9 mm or carotid plaque. Results. In a population of 29 Romanian rheumatoid arthritis patients free of cardiovascular disease, the performance of Framingham Risk Score, HeartSCORE, ARIC cardiovascular disease prediction score, Reynolds Risk Score, PROCAM risk score and Qrisk2 score were compared. All the scores under-diagnosed subclinical atherosclerosis. With an AUROC of 0,792, the SCORE model was the only one that could partially stratify patients in low, intermediate and high-risk categories. The use of the EULAR recommended modifier did not help to reclassify patients. Conclusion. The only score that showed a statistically significant prediction capacity for subclinical atherosclerosis in a Romanian rheumatoid arthritis population was SCORE. The additional calibration or the use of imaging techniques in CVD risk prediction for the intermediate risk category might be warranted. PMID:25713628

  10. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  11. Reduced brachial flow-mediated vasodilation in young adult ex extremely low birth weight preterm: a condition predictive of increased cardiovascular risk?

    PubMed

    Bassareo, P P; Fanos, V; Puddu, M; Demuru, P; Cadeddu, F; Balzarini, M; Mercuro, G

    2010-10-01

    Sporadic data present in literature report how preterm birth and low birth weight constitute the risk factors for the development of cardiovascular diseases in later life. To assess the presence of potential alterations to endothelial function in young adults born preterm at extremely low birth weight (<1000 g; ex ELBW). Thirty-two ex-ELBW subjects (10 males [M] and 22 females [F], aged 17-28 years, mean [+/- DS] 20.1 +/- 2.5 years) were compared with 32 healthy, age-matched subjects born at term (C, 9 M and 23 F). 1) pathological conditions known to affect endothelial function; 2) administration of drugs known to affect endothelial function. Endothelial function was assessed by non-invasive finger plethysmography, previously validated by the US Food and Drug Administration (Endopath; Itamar Medical Ltd., Cesarea, Israel). Endothelial function was significantly reduced in ex-ELBW subjects compared to C (1.94 +/- 0.37 vs. 2.68 +/- 0.41, p < 0.0001). Moreover, this function correlated significantly with gestational age (r = 0.56, p < 0.0009) and birth weight (r = 0.63, p < 0.0001). The results obtained reveal a significant decrease in endothelial function of ex-ELBW subjects compared to controls, underlining a probable correlation with preterm birth and low birth weight. Taken together, these results suggest that an ELBW may underlie the onset of early circulatory dysfunction predictive of increased cardiovascular risk.

  12. Validity of cardiovascular risk prediction models in Latin America and among Hispanics in the United States of America: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Cortes-Bergoderi, Mery; Thomas, Randal J; Albuquerque, Felipe N; Batsis, John A; Burdiat, Gerard; Perez-Terzic, Carmen; Trejo-Gutierrez, Jorge; Lopez-Jimenez, Francisco

    2012-08-01

    To assess the use and validity of prediction models to estimate the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Latin America and among Hispanic populations in the United States of America. This was a systematic review of three databases: Ovid MEDLINE (1 January 1950-15 April 2010), LILACS (1 January 1988-15 April 2010), and EMBASE (1 January 1988-15 April 2010). MeSH search terms and domains were related to CVD, prediction rules, Latin America (including the Caribbean), and Hispanics in the United States. Database searches were supplemented by correspondence with experts in the field. A total of 1 655 abstracts were identified, of which five cohorts with a total of 13 142 subjects met inclusion criteria. A Mexican cohort showed that the predicted/observed event-rate ratio for coronary heart disease (CHD) according to the Framingham risk score (FRS) was 1.68 (95% CI, 1.26-2.11); incident myocardial infarction, 1.36 (95% CI, 0.90-1.83); and CHD death, 1.21 (95% CI, 0.43-2.00). In Ecuador, a prediction model for CVD and total deaths in hypertensive patients had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.72-0.86), while the World Health Organization method had an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.67-0.82). A study predicting mortality risk in people with Chagas' disease had an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.72-0.90). Among a United State s cohort that included Hispanics, FRS overestimated CVD risk for Hispanics with an AUC of 0.69. Another study in the United States that assessed FRS factors predicting CVD death among Mexican-Americans had an AUC of 0.78. The evidence regarding CVD risk prediction rules in Latin America or among Hispanics in the United States is modest at best. It is likely that the FRS overestimates CVD risk in Hispanics when not properly recalibrated.

  13. [The role of inflammatory biomarkers in cardiovascular risk stratification].

    PubMed

    Пузік, Світлана Г

    The increase in cardiovascular diseases requires the search for ways to predict complications based on research additional to traditional risk factors, conduct a study of the formation mechanisms of these complications and to design new treatment strategies. To get an idea about the relationship between inflammation in the blood vessels, atherosclerosis and cardiovascular consequences based on the study of the role of biomarkers of inflammation. the literature on the estimation of risk development of cardiovascular diseases based on the study of the role of biomarkers of vascular inflammation; bibliographic, a systematic approach. Algorithm stratification of cardiovascular risk includes a review of the traditional risk factors for the purpose of preventive therapy. A large number of cases of cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke) occurs in bessimptomnom patients with normal lipid. The use of additional risk factors for development of cerebral and cardiac disorders will allow to foresee the consequences and to prevent mortality from cardiovascular disease. Study of the role of inflammation in development of cardiovascular diseases allows the use of SB and PL-ФЛА2 as an important additional cardiovascular markers, independent of traditional risk factors. The use of biomarkers LP-ФЛА2 and SB specific to vascular inflammation, allows to establish the relationship between endovascular inflammation, atherosclerosis development and progression of cardiovascular diseases and to prevent cerebral and cardiac disorders in patients with traditional risk factor .

  14. [Elevated blood pressure as cardiovascular risk factor].

    PubMed

    Kowalewski, Wiesław; Hebel, Kazimiera

    2013-01-01

    Cardiovascular diseases for decades have been and still are the main and current health problem of the Polish society and there are many reasons for these diseases. Hypertension is one of the major risk factors for developing cardiovascular disease. The factors significantly increasing risk the of cardiovascular disease are in addition to high blood pressure, smoking (also passive), high blood fats (cholesterol and its HDL, LDL fractions as well as triglyceride levels, obesity, lack of exercise, diabetes and hereditary features. Other important factors which play an important role are external factors such as e.g. environmental pollution, lifestyle, stress. Prediction of cardiovascular disease should start from the evaluation of the fetal period because low birth weight may be a risk of coronary heart disease, hypertension, obesity or diabetes in adulthood. The authors of the referred tests showed that the level of blood pressure observed during childhood is closely associated with the level of blood pressure in adults and is also dependent on the body weight. Since the issue of the effects of high pressure on the cardiovascular system is inherent in the issue of the metabolic syndrome, it should be mentioned also that another causative factor may be an irregularity in the removal of urine from the body and the amount of insulin. The control of hypertension is a complex problem, at least in view of the wide range of adverse factors affecting the human body: hypertension is often either a constituent of other lesions. Therefore, it is difficult to treat high blood pressure in the strict sense; more often it is a combination therapy based on pharmacology caused for other reasons.

  15. HIV Therapy, Metabolic Syndrome, and Cardiovascular Risk

    PubMed Central

    Pao, Vivian; Lee, Grace A.; Grunfeld, Carl

    2011-01-01

    People with HIV infection have metabolic abnormalities that resemble metabolic syndrome (hypertriglyceridemia, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and insulin resistance), which is known to predict increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, there is not one underlying cause for these abnormalities and they are not linked to each other. Rather, individual abnormalities can be affected by the host response to HIV itself, specific HIV drugs, classes of HIV drugs, HIV-associated lipoatrophy, or restoration to health. Furthermore, one component of metabolic syndrome, increased waist circumference, occurs less frequently in HIV infection. Thus, HIV infection supports the concept that metabolic syndrome does not represent a syndrome based on a common underlying pathophysiology. As might be predicted from these findings, the prevalence of CVD is higher in people with HIV infection. It remains to be determined whether CVD rates in HIV infection are higher than might be predicted from traditional risk factors, including smoking. PMID:18366987

  16. Predicting economic and medical outcomes based on risk adjustment for congenital heart surgery classification of pediatric cardiovascular surgical admissions.

    PubMed

    Raucci, Frank J; Hoke, Tracey R; Gutgesell, Howard P

    2014-12-01

    The Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) classification is an established method for predicting mortality for congenital heart disease surgery. It is unknown if this extends to the cost of hospitalization or if differences in economic and medical outcomes exist in certain subpopulations. Using data obtained from the University HealthSystem Consortium, we examined inpatient resource use by patients with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, procedure codes representative of RACHS-1 classifications 1 through 5 and 6 from 2006 to 2012. A total of 15,453 pediatric congenital heart disease surgical admissions were analyzed, with overall mortality of 4.5% (n = 689). As RACHS-1 classification increased, the total cost of hospitalization, hospital charges, total length of stay, length of intensive care unit stay, and mortality increased. Even when controlled for RACHS-1 classification, black patients (n = 2034) had higher total costs ($96,884 ± $3,392, p = 0.003), higher charges ($318,313 ± $12,018, p <0.001), and longer length of stay (20.4 ± 0.7 days, p <0.001) compared with white patients ($85,396 ± $1,382, $285,622 ± $5,090, and 18.0 ± 0.3 days, respectively). Hispanic patients had similarly disparate outcomes ($104,292 ± $2,759, $351,371 ± $10,627, and 23.0 ± 0.6 days, respectively) and also spent longer in the intensive care unit (14.9 ± 0.5 days, p <0.001). In conclusion, medical and economic measures increased predictably with increased procedure risk, and admissions for black and Hispanic patients were longer and more expensive than those of their white counterparts but without increased mortality.

  17. [Hypertension and cardiovascular risk evaluation of Chinese cardiovascular physicians].

    PubMed

    Li, She-Chang; Yu, Jin-Ming; Zhang, Li-Jun; Zhan, Yi-Qiang; Zhang, Fen; Hu, Da-Yi

    2011-03-01

    To observe the prevalence, awareness, treatment and control rate of hypertension and to evaluate the 10-year absolute risk of coronary heart disease(CHD) and ischemic cardiovascular disease(ICVD) in Chinese cardiovascular physicians. A total of 4032 cardiovascular physicians (28 to 79 years old) from 386 hospitals in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities were randomly selected and received an epidemiologic survey of prevalence, awareness, and control of hypertension and evaluations of CHD and ICVD risk. The prevalence of hypertension in Chinese cardiovascular physicians was 13.1%. The awareness rate of hypertension in Chinese cardiovascular physicians was 81.7%. Hypertension treatment rate was 69.6% and blood pressure control rate was 44.6%. The prevalence of hypertension was higher in male physicians than in female physicians before the age of 55 years old. Ten-year absolute risk of CHD and ICVD was 0.08 and 0.03 in hypertensive physicians compared to 0.03 and 0.01 in non-hypertensive physicians. The results show suboptimal awareness, treatment and control rate in Chinese cardiovascular physicians for their own hypertension status.Physicians suffering from hypertension face higher risk for cardiovascular disease. It is therefore necessary to improve the self-monitoring of blood pressure in Chinese cardiovascular physicians.

  18. Self‐Reported Cardiorespiratory Fitness: Prediction and Classification of Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality and Longevity—A Prospective Investigation in the Copenhagen City Heart Study

    PubMed Central

    Holtermann, Andreas; Marott, Jacob Louis; Gyntelberg, Finn; Søgaard, Karen; Mortensen, Ole Steen; Prescott, Eva; Schnohr, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Background The predictive value and improved risk classification of self‐reported cardiorespiratory fitness (SRCF), when added to traditional risk factors on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and longevity, are unknown. Methods and Results A total of 3843 males and 5093 females from the Copenhagen City Heart Study without CVD in 1991–1994 were analyzed using multivariate Cox hazards regression to assess the predictive value and survival benefit for CVD and all‐cause mortality from SRCF. The category‐free net reclassification improvement from SRCF was calculated at 15‐year follow‐up on CVD and all‐cause mortality. Overall, 1693 individuals died from CVD. In the fully adjusted Cox model, those reporting the same (hazard ratio [HR], 1.17; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04 to 1.32) and lower (HR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.62 to 2.24) SRCF than peers had an increased risk of CVD mortality, compared with individuals with higher SRCF. Compared with individuals with higher SRCF, those with the same and lower SRCF had 1.8 (95% CI, 1.0 to 2.5) and 5.1 (95% CI, 4.1 to 6.2) years lower life expectancy, respectively. Individuals with lower SRCF had a significantly increased risk of CVD mortality, compared with individuals with higher SRCF, within each strata of leisure time physical activity and self‐rated health, and SRCF significantly predicted CVD mortality independently of self‐rated health and walking pace. A net reclassification improvement of 30.5% (95% CI, 22.1% to 38.9%) for CVD mortality was found when adding SRCF to traditional risk factors. Comparable findings were found for all‐cause mortality. Conclusions SRCF has independent predictive value, is related to a considerable survival benefit, and improves risk classification when added to traditional risk factors of CVD and all‐cause mortality. SRCF might prove useful in improved risk stratification in primary prevention. PMID:25628408

  19. Youth overweight and metabolic disturbances in predicting carotid intima-media thickness, type 2 diabetes, and metabolic syndrome in adulthood: the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study.

    PubMed

    Koskinen, Juha; Magnussen, Costan G; Sabin, Matthew A; Kähönen, Mika; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Laitinen, Tomi; Taittonen, Leena; Jokinen, Eero; Lehtimäki, Terho; Viikari, Jorma S A; Raitakari, Olli T; Juonala, Markus

    2014-07-01

    Our objective was to assess cardiovascular risk and metabolic complications in adulthood in subjects with or without overweight and metabolic disturbances (i.e., elevated blood pressure, glucose, triglycerides, low HDL cholesterol, and high LDL cholesterol) and their combinations as youth. Using data from the population-based Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study, we examined the utility of four age- and sex-specific youth phenotypes (group I: normal weight, no metabolic disturbances; group II: normal weight, one or more metabolic disturbances; group III: overweight/obese, no metabolic disturbances; group IV: overweight/obese, one or more metabolic disturbances) in predicting adult high carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and metabolic syndrome (MetS). The study included 1,617 participants 9-24 years of age at baseline who were followed up 21-25 years later. IMT (mean ± SEM) was higher among participants in groups II (0.627 ± 0.005 mm, P = 0.05), III (0.647 ± 0.010 mm, P = 0.005), and IV (0.670 ± 0.010 mm, P < 0.0001) compared with group I (0.616 ± 0.003 mm). In addition, subjects in group IV had significantly higher IMT compared with those in group II (P = 0.002). Participants in groups II, III, and IV were at increased risk of the development of MetS in adulthood compared with those in the control group. For group II participants, the difference was attenuated after risk factor adjustments. Additionally, participants in group III and IV were at increased risk of the development of T2DM compared with those in groups I and II. While metabolic risk factors associated with overweight increase future risk for MetS, T2DM, and increased IMT, overweight in isolation is also a risk factor. Therefore, overweight should be prevented and treated wherever possible. © 2014 by the American Diabetes Association.

  20. Testosterone, cardiovascular risk, and hormonophobia.

    PubMed

    Morgentaler, Abraham

    2014-06-01

    A public outcry against testosterone (T) therapy has suddenly occurred based on two reports suggesting treatment was associated with increased cardiovascular (CV) risks. To analyze scientific and social bases for concerns regarding T therapy. Analysis of recent articles regarding CV risks with T and comparison with events surrounding publication of results of the Women's Health Initiative in 2002. In the first study, the percentage of individuals with an adverse event was lower by half in men who received T compared with untreated men (10.1% vs. 21.2%). However, an opposite conclusion was reached via complex statistics. The second study reported minor increased rate of nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) up to 90 days after receiving a T prescription compared with the prior 12 months. However, there was no control group, so it is unknown whether this MI rate was increased, reduced, or unchanged compared with untreated men. Neither study provided substantive evidence of risk, yet these were lauded as proof of dangers, despite a substantial literature to the contrary. Similar events followed the publication of the Women's Health Initiative in 2002 when a media frenzy over increased risks with female hormone replacement therapy obscured the fact that the reported excess risk was clinically meaningless, at two events per 1,000 person-years. Stakeholders driving concerns regarding hormone risks are unlikely to be clinicians with real-world patient experience. The use of weak studies as proof of danger indicates that cultural (i.e., nonscientific) forces are at play. Negative media stories touting T's risks appear fueled by antipharma sentiment, anger against aggressive marketing, and antisexuality. This stance is best described as "hormonophobia." As history shows, evidence alone may be insufficient to alter a public narrative. The true outrage is that social forces and hysteria have combined to deprive men of a useful treatment without regard for medical science.

  1. Cardiovascular risk factors in primary hyperparathyroidism.

    PubMed

    Luboshitzky, R; Chertok-Schaham, Y; Lavi, I; Ishay, A

    2009-04-01

    Severe primary hyperparathyroidism (PHP) has been associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity. Such an association in mild PHP is not known. We conducted a cross-sectional study to assess the correlation between mild and traditional PHP and emergent cardiovascular risk factors. A total of 139 patients with PHP (72 with severe PHP and indications for parathyroidectomy, 67 with mild PHP and no indications for surgery) and 111 control subjects, of similar age and body weight, were enrolled in this study. Participants had measurement of fasting blood levels of calcium, PTH, insulin, glucose, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, interleukin-6, and C-reactive protein. Body mass index (BMI), waist and hip circumferences, blood pressure, homeostasis model assessment 2-insulin resistance index (IR) and the presence of metabolic syndrome (MS) were evaluated. Severe PHP patients had significantly higher rates of MS (37.5%), IR (38.9 %) vs mild PHP (34.3 and 23.9%, respectively) and controls (14.4 and 14.4%, respectively). Multivariate logistic-regression model, adjusted for age and BMI, and for age and waist size, revealed that severe PHP had significantly higher likelihood of cardiovascular risks [odds ratio (OR) 3.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-8.125, p=0.004 for MS, and OR 3.7, 95% CI 1.64-8.29, p=0.002 for IR]. Serum calcium significantly predicted the presence of MS (OR 1.875, 95% CI 1.259-2.793, p=0.002) and IR (OR 2.043, 95% CI 1.365-3.057, p=0.002). Greater probability of MS and insulin resistance was observed in patients with severe PHP. Serum calcium is a predictor of these cardiovascular risk factors.

  2. Positive Psychosocial Factors in Childhood Predicting Lower Risk for Adult Type 2 Diabetes: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study, 1980-2012.

    PubMed

    Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Elovainio, Marko; Hakulinen, Christian; Lipsanen, Jari; Kubzansky, Laura D; Hintsanen, Mirka; Savelieva, Kateryna; Serlachius, Anna; Magnussen, Costan G; Sabin, Matthew A; Burgner, David P; Lehtimäki, Terho; Jokinen, Eero; Rönnemaa, Tapani; Mikkilä, Vera; Jula, Antti; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Viikari, Jorma; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa; Raitakari, Olli; Juonala, Markus

    2017-06-01

    Type 2 diabetes is a public health concern, but psychosocial factors that may protect against the disease are unknown. This study examines whether a positive psychosocial environment in childhood is associated with lower risk for Type 2 diabetes in adulthood or healthier glucose trajectories over the life course, and whether BMI mediates the associations. A cohort of 3,596 Finnish children was followed into adulthood over 32 years. An overall positive psychosocial score, consisting of six subdomains, was measured at study baseline (1980). Relative risk ratios and multilevel growth curve modeling were used to examine associations of the psychosocial score with Type 2 diabetes (2012) and glucose trajectories (1986-2012). The mediating effect by BMI was examined using mediation analysis. The analyses were conducted between June 2015 and January 2016. There was a 21% decrease in the rate of Type 2 diabetes (relative risk ratio, 0.79; 95% CI=0.66, 0.94) for each 1-SD increase in the positive psychosocial score after adjustment for childhood cardiovascular risk factors and dietary behaviors. Adult BMI mediated 52% and weight gain mediated 25% of the association. The growth curve model showed healthier glucose trajectories (age X psychosocial score interaction, b= -0.01; p=0.010) for participants with higher versus lower positive psychosocial score in childhood. Positive psychosocial environment in childhood seems to have beneficial influences on the risk for Type 2 diabetes over the life span. RCTs will be required to see if interventions directed at early-life circumstances are warranted. Copyright © 2017 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Renal and cardiovascular risk predictive value of two different microalbuminuria screening methods in patients with hypertension with/without diabetes in Portugal.

    PubMed

    Polónia, J; Carvalho, D; Nazaré, J; Martins, L; da Silva, P M; Aguiar, C; Manso, M C; Carqueja, T

    2016-11-01

    MicRoAlbuminuria sCreening survEy (RACE) was a multicentre, observational, cross-sectional study conducted in primary health-care settings of Portugal. Here, we present a post-hoc analysis from the RACE study, assessing the renal and cardiovascular (CV) risk predictive value of two different microalbuminuria (MA) screening methods, nephelometry with 24-h urine (MA-24 h) and Micral test with occasional urine (MicralA) in patients with hypertension (HTN) with/without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Out of 3065 patients, 1173 (38.3%) were in the HTN group without T2DM (HTN) and 1892 (61.7%) in the HTN group with T2DM (HTN+T2DM). The overall prevalence of MA was 50.6% determined by MicralA and 22.1% with MA-24 h. Urinary albumin excretion data obtained by both techniques correlated significantly (rs=0.586; P<0.001). In all subjects, MicralA showed a sensitivity of 93%, specificity of 62% for detection of MA, with a positive predictive value of 41% and negative predictive value of 97%. With both methods, the presence of MA was independently associated with a higher risk (1.5- to 2.9-fold) of CV and renal organ damage in both HTN and HTN+T2DM groups. MicralA, due to its high sensitivity and negative predictive value, can be considered as a valid and reliable method for MA screening in patients with HTN with/without T2DM.

  4. Predictive role of the Mediterranean diet on mortality in individuals at low cardiovascular risk: a 12-year follow-up population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Bo, Simona; Ponzo, Valentina; Goitre, Ilaria; Fadda, Maurizio; Pezzana, Andrea; Beccuti, Guglielmo; Gambino, Roberto; Cassader, Maurizio; Soldati, Laura; Broglio, Fabio

    2016-04-12

    Adherence to the Mediterranean diet reduces the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality and the incidence of CV events. However, most previous studies were performed in high-risk individuals. Our objective was to assess whether the adherence to the Mediterranean diet, evaluated by the MED score, was associated with all-cause and CV mortality and incidence of CV events in individuals at low CV risk from a population-based cohort, after a 12-year mean follow-up. A cohort of 1658 individuals completed a validated food-frequency questionnaire in 2001-2003. The MED score was calculated by a 0-9 scale. Anthropometric, laboratory measurements, and the vital status were collected at baseline and during 2014. The baseline CV risk was estimated by the Framingham risk score. Participants were divided into two groups: individuals at low risk (CV < 10) and individuals with CV risk ≥ 10. During a 12-year mean follow-up, 220 deaths, 84 due to CV diseases, and 125 incident CV events occurred. The adherence to the Mediterranean diet was low in 768 (score 0-2), medium in 685 (score 4-5) and high in 205 (score > 6) individuals. Values of BMI, waist circumference, fasting glucose and insulin significantly decreased from low to high diet adherence only in participants with CV risk ≥ 10. In a Cox-regression model, the hazard ratios (HRs) in low-risk individuals per unit of MED score were: HR = 0.83 (95 % CI 0.72-0.96) for all-cause mortality, HR = 0.75 (95 % CI 0.58-0.96) for CV mortality, and HR = 0.79 (95 % CI 0.65-0.97) for CV events, after multiple adjustments. In individuals with CV risk ≥ 10, the MED score predicted incident CV events (HR = 0.85; 95 % CI 0.72-0.99), while the associations with all-cause (HR = 1.02; 95 % CI 0.90-1.15) and CV mortality (0.94; 95 % CI 0.76-1.15) were not significant. Greater adherence to the Mediterranean diet was associated with reduced fatal and non fatal CV events, especially in individuals at low CV risk, thus suggesting the

  5. Egg consumption and cardiovascular risk

    PubMed

    Fuertes García, Antonio

    2016-07-12

    Diet, along with exercise, is the determining factor in primary prevention –and secondary– of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This disease remains the leading cause of death in our country, as well as neighboring countries. After the publication of the results of the study of the Seven Countries in 1980, egg consumption was discouraged because it was thought falsely that the consumption of it had the same harmful effect as saturated fats increasing CVD risk. This idea, that was proved wrong later, was in general accepted by the medical profession as much as the general population. Simultaneously numerous clinical studies were performed and they clearly contradict that belief, concluding that egg intake do not increase CVD risk. In conclusion, although the literature on this topic is abundant, we cite the works that seem most significant in this regard. Consequently and following the recommendations of the American Heart Association Guidelines, since 2000, we can conclude that intake of up to one egg a day does not modify the risk for CVD in healthy adults.

  6. Independent effects of age-related changes in waist circumference and BMI z scores in predicting cardiovascular disease risk factors in a prospective cohort of adolescent females

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    BACKGROUND: Cross-sectional data indicate that central adiposity is associated with cardiovascular disease risk, independent of total adiposity. The use of longitudinal data to investigate the relation between changes in fat distribution and the emergence of risk factors is limited. OBJECTIVE: We ...

  7. Development and validation of cardiovascular risk scores for haemodialysis patients.

    PubMed

    Anker, Stefan D; Gillespie, Iain A; Eckardt, Kai-Uwe; Kronenberg, Florian; Richards, Sharon; Drueke, Tilman B; Stenvinkel, Peter; Pisoni, Ronald L; Robinson, Bruce M; Marcelli, Daniele; Froissart, Marc; Floege, Jürgen

    2016-08-01

    A simple clinical tool to predict cardiovascular disease risk does not exist for haemodialysis patients. The long-term coronary risk Framingham Heart Study Risk score (FRS), although used in this population, may be inadequate. Therefore, we developed separate risk-scores for cardiovascular mortality (CVM) and cardiovascular morbidity & mortality (CVMM) in a Fresenius Medical Care-based haemodialysis patient cohort (AROii). Applying a modified FRS approach, we derived and internally validated two-year risk-scores in incident European adult patients randomly assigned to a development (N=4831) or a validation (N=4796) dataset. External validation was conducted in the third Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS III) cohort. Additional discrimination comparing to the FRS was performed. The overall two-year CVM and CVMM event rates were 5.0 and 22.6 per 100 person-years respectively. Common risk predictors included increasing age, cardiovascular disease history, primary diabetic nephropathy, low blood pressure, and inflammation. The CVM score was more predictive in AROii (c-statistic 0.72) and in DOPPS III (c-statistic 0.73-0.74) than the CVMM score (c-statistic 0.66-0.67 & 0.63 respectively). The FRS was not predictive of either CVM (c-statistic 0.54) or CVMM (c-statistic 0.56) in AROii. We describe novel, easy-to-apply and interpret CV risk-scores for haemodialysis patients. Our improved cardiovascular prediction performance over traditional (FRS) scores reflected its tailored development and validation in haemodialysis populations, and the integration of non-classical cardiovascular risk factors. The lower expected versus observed CVM and CVMM risk suggests the existence of novel cardiovascular risk factors in this patient population not measured in this study. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  8. Cardiovascular risk stratification in familial hypercholesterolaemia

    PubMed Central

    Sharifi, Mahtab; Rakhit, Roby D; Humphries, Steve E; Nair, Devaki

    2016-01-01

    Familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) is a common autosomal-dominant disorder in most European countries. Patients with FH are characterised by a raised level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and a high risk of premature coronary heart disease (CHD). Currently there is no consensus regarding the clinical utility to predict future coronary events or testing for the presence of subclinical atherosclerotic disease in asymptomatic patients with FH. Family screening of patients with FH as recommended by the UK National Institute of Health and Care Excellence guideline would result in finding many young individuals with a diagnosis of FH who are clinically asymptomatic. The traditional CHD risk scores, that is, the Framingham score, are insufficient in risk prediction in this group of young individuals. In addition, a better understanding of the genetic aetiology of the FH phenotype and CHD risk in monogenic FH and polygenic hypercholesterolaemia is needed. Non-invasive imaging methods such as carotid intima-media thickness measurement might produce more reliable information in finding high-risk patients with FH. The potential market authorisation of novel therapeutic agents such as PCSK9 monoclonal inhibitors makes it essential to have a better screening programme to prioritise the candidates for treatment with the most severe form of FH and at higher risk of coronary events. The utility of new imaging techniques and new cardiovascular biomarkers remains to be determined in prospective trials. PMID:27126396

  9. Subclinical atherosclerosis measures for cardiovascular prediction in CKD.

    PubMed

    Matsushita, Kunihiro; Sang, Yingying; Ballew, Shoshana H; Shlipak, Michael; Katz, Ronit; Rosas, Sylvia E; Peralta, Carmen A; Woodward, Mark; Kramer, Holly J; Jacobs, David R; Sarnak, Mark J; Coresh, Josef

    2015-02-01

    Whether inclusion of the coronary artery calcium score improves cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with CKD, a population with unique calcium-phosphate homeostasis, is unknown. Among 6553 participants ages 45-84 years without prior cardiovascular disease in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, coronary artery calcium score was assessed for cardiovascular risk prediction beyond the Framingham predictors in those with (n=1284) and without CKD and contrasted with carotid intima-media thickness and ankle-brachial index (two other measures of subclinical atherosclerosis). During a median follow-up of 8.4 years, 650 cardiovascular events (coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, and peripheral artery disease) occurred (236 events in subjects with CKD). In Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for Framingham predictors, each subclinical measure was independently associated with cardiovascular outcomes, with larger adjusted hazard ratios (HRs; per 1 SD) for coronary artery calcium score than carotid intima-media thickness or ankle-brachial index in subjects without and with CKD (HR, 1.69; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.45 to 1.97 versus HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.25 and HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.32, respectively). Compared with inclusion of carotid intima-media thickness or ankle-brachial index, inclusion of the coronary artery calcium score led to greater increases in C statistic for predicting cardiovascular disease and net reclassification improvement. Coronary artery calcium score performed best for the prediction of coronary heart disease and heart failure, regardless of CKD status. In conclusion, each measure improved cardiovascular risk prediction in subjects with CKD, with the greatest improvement observed with coronary artery calcium score.

  10. Cardiovascular risk score and cardiovascular events among airline pilots: a case-control study.

    PubMed

    Wirawan, I Made Ady; Larsen, Peter D; Aldington, Sarah; Griffiths, Robin F; Ellis, Chris J

    2012-05-01

    A cardiovascular risk prediction score is routinely applied by aviation authorities worldwide. We examined the accuracy of the Framingham-based risk chart used by the New Zealand Civil Aviation Authority in predicting cardiovascular events among airline pilots. A matched case-control design was applied to assess the association of 5-yr cardiovascular risk score and cardiovascular events in Oceania-based airline pilots. Cases were pilots with cardiovascular events as recorded on their medical records. Each case was age and gender matched with four controls that were randomly selected from the pilot population. To collect data before the events, 5-yr retrospective evaluations were conducted. Over a 16-yr study period we identified 15 cases of cardiovascular events, 9 (60%) of which were sudden clinical presentations and only 6 (40%) of which were detected using cardiovascular screening. There were 8 cases (53%) and 16 controls (27%) who had a 5-yr risk of > or = 10-15%. Almost half of the events (7/15) occurred in pilots whose highest 5-yr risk was in the 5-10% range. Cases were 3.91 times more likely to have highest 5-yr risk score of > or =10-15% than controls (OR = 3.91, 95% CI 1.04-16.35). The accuracy of the highest risk scores were moderate (AUC = 0.723, 95% CI 0.583-0.863). The cutoff point of 10% is valid, with a specificity of 0.73, but low sensitivity (0.53). Despite a valid and appropriate cutoff point, the tool had low sensitivity and was unable to predict almost half of the cardiovascular events.

  11. World Health Organization cardiovascular risk stratification and target organ damage.

    PubMed

    Piskorz, D; Bongarzoni, L; Citta, L; Citta, N; Citta, P; Keller, L; Mata, L; Tommasi, A

    2016-01-01

    Prediction charts allow treatment to be targeted according to simple markers of cardiovascular risk; many algorithms do not recommend screening asymptomatic target organ damage which could change dramatically the assessment. To demonstrate that target organ damage is present in low cardiovascular risk hypertensive patients and it is more frequent and severe as global cardiovascular risk increases. Consecutive hypertensive patients treated at a single Latin American center. Cardiovascular risk stratified according to 2013 WHO/ISH risk prediction chart America B. Left ventricular mass assessed by Devereux method, left ventricular hypertrophy considered >95g/m(2) in women and >115g/m(2) in men. Transmitral diastolic peak early flow velocity to average septal/lateral peak early diastolic relaxation velocity (E/e' ratio) measured cut off value >13. Systolic function assessed by tissue Doppler average interventricular septum/lateral wall mitral annulus rate systolic excursion (s wave). A total of 292 patients were included of whom 159 patients (54.5%) had cardiovascular risk of <10%, 90 (30.8%) had cardiovascular risk of 10-20% and 43 (14.7%) had cardiovascular risk of >20%. Left ventricular hypertrophy was detected in 17.6% low risk patients, 27.8% in medium risk and 23.3% in high risk (p<0.05), abnormal E/e' ratio was found in 13.8%, 31.1% and 27.9%, respectively (p<0.05). Mean s wave was 8.03+8, 8.1+9 and 8.7+1cm/s for low, intermediate and high risk patients, respectively (p<0.025). Target organ damage is more frequent and severe in high risk; one over four subjects was misclassified due to the presence of asymptomatic target organ damage. Copyright © 2015 SEHLELHA. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  12. Mortality and cardiovascular morbidity within 30 days of discharge following acute coronary syndrome in a contemporary European cohort of patients: How can early risk prediction be improved? The six-month GRACE risk score.

    PubMed

    Raposeiras-Roubín, Sergio; Abu-Assi, Emad; Cambeiro-González, Cristina; Álvarez-Álvarez, Belén; Pereira-López, Eva; Gestal-Romaní, Santiago; Pedreira-López, Milagros; Rigueiro-Veloso, Pedro; Virgós-Lamela, Alejandro; García-Acuña, José María; González-Juanatey, José Ramón

    2015-06-01

    Given the increasing focus on early mortality and readmission rates among patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), this study was designed to evaluate the accuracy of the GRACE risk score for identifying patients at high risk of 30-day post-discharge mortality and cardiovascular readmission. This was a retrospective study carried out in a single center with 4229 ACS patients discharged between 2004 and 2010. The study endpoint was the combination of 30-day post-discharge mortality and readmission due to reinfarction, heart failure or stroke. One hundred and fourteen patients had 30-day events: 0.7% mortality, 1% reinfarction, 1.3% heart failure, and 0.2% stroke. After multivariate analysis, the six-month GRACE risk score was associated with an increased risk of 30-day events (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.04; p<0.001), demonstrating good discrimination (C-statistic: 0.79 ± 0.02) and optimal fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.83). The sensitivity and specificity were adequate (78.1% and 63.3%, respectively), and negative predictive value was excellent (99.1%). In separate analyses for each event of interest (all-cause mortality, reinfarction, heart failure and stroke), assessment of the six-month GRACE risk score also demonstrated good discrimination and fit, as well as adequate predictive values. The six-month GRACE risk score is a useful tool to predict 30-day post-discharge death and early cardiovascular readmission. Clinicians may find it simple to use with the online and mobile app score calculator and applicable to clinical daily practice. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  13. Cardiovascular investigations of airline pilots with excessive cardiovascular risk.

    PubMed

    Wirawan, I Made Ady; Aldington, Sarah; Griffiths, Robin F; Ellis, Chris J; Larsen, Peter D

    2013-06-01

    This study examined the prevalence of airline pilots who have an excessive cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk score according to the New Zealand Guideline Group (NZGG) Framingham-based Risk Chart and describes their cardiovascular risk assessment and investigations. A cross-sectional study was performed among 856 pilots employed in an Oceania based airline. Pilots with elevated CVD risk that had been previously evaluated at various times over the previous 19 yr were reviewed retrospectively from the airline's medical records, and the subsequent cardiovascular investigations were then described. There were 30 (3.5%) pilots who were found to have 5-yr CVD risk score of 10-15% or higher. Of the 29 pilots who had complete cardiac investigations data, 26 pilots underwent exercise electrocardiography (ECG), 2 pilots progressed directly to coronary angiograms and 1 pilot with abnormal echocardiogram was not examined further. Of the 26 pilots, 7 had positive or borderline exercise tests, all of whom subsequently had angiograms. One patient with a negative exercise test also had a coronary angiogram. Of the 9 patients who had coronary angiograms as a consequence of screening, 5 had significant disease that required treatment and 4 had either trivial disease or normal coronary arteries. The current approach to investigate excessive cardiovascular risk in pilots relies heavily on exercise electrocardiograms as a diagnostic test, and may not be optimal either to detect disease or to protect pilots from unnecessary invasive procedures. A more comprehensive and accurate cardiac investigation algorithm to assess excessive CVD risk in pilots is required.

  14. Childhood migration and cardiovascular risk.

    PubMed

    Schooling, Mary; Leung, Gabriel M; Janus, Edward D; Ho, Sai Yin; Hedley, Anthony J; Lam, Tai Hing

    2004-12-01

    Childhood living conditions have been hypothesized to be associated with the development of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes mellitus in adult life. We analysed, using logistic regression, the risk of self-reported diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, and ischaemic heart disease in a population-based sample of 3643 Chinese men and 3778 Chinese women some of whom had experienced a change to more favourable economic conditions at different life stages through migration from mainland China to Hong Kong. Adjusting for socio-economic status, risk behaviours, and family history, the development of diabetes was associated with migration from China to Hong Kong in the first two decades of life, albeit with a decreasing intensity of effect (OR = 2.02, 95% CI: 1.18, 3.45, OR = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.27, 2.66, and OR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.21, 2.45 for migration at ages 0-7, 8-17, and 18-24, respectively). The development of hypertension was mostly susceptible to environmental change during the growth spurt and puberty (migration at ages 8-17 OR = 1.56, 95% CI: 1.22, 1.99). The development of heart disease was associated with a sex-specific critical period in early childhood for men (migration at ages 0-7 OR = 3.17, 95% CI: 1.70, 5.91). Environmental change by migration throughout the first two decades of life can affect the development of diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, and ischaemic heart disease, although adverse childhood conditions alone may not be a risk factor. Our results suggest that specific life course pathways may pre-dispose to these conditions and could be relevant to their aetiology in populations undergoing rapid development.

  15. Psychological Factors, Including Alexithymia, in the Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk in HIV Infected Patients: Results of a Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Sozio, Federica; Mazzott, Elena; Ursini, Tamara; Polill, Ennio; Di Stefano, Paola; Tontodonati, Monica; Verrocchio, Maria C.; Fulcheri, Mario; Calella, Giulio; Santilli, Francesca; Manzoli, Lamberto

    2013-01-01

    Background Psychological factors are known predictors of cardiovascular disease in many clinical settings, but data are lacking for HIV infection. We carried out a prospective cohort study to evaluate potential psychological predictors of preclinical and clinical vascular disease in HIV patients. Methodology/Principal Findings HIV patients were consecutively enrolled. Demographics, viral and immune parameters and traditional cardiovascular predictors were considered; Intima-Media Thickness (c-IMT, continuous measure) and Carotid Plaques (CPs, focal thickening ≥1.5 mm) were investigated by B-mode ultrasonography; depressive symptoms by the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II), Type D personality (Distressed Personality or Type D) by the DS14, alexithymia by the Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20). Vascular outcomes included transient ischemic attacks or stroke, acute coronary syndrome, myocardial or other organ infarction. We enrolled 232 HIV subjects, 73.9% males, aged 44.5±9.9 y, 38.2% with AIDS diagnosis, 18.3% untreated. Mean Nadir CD4 T-cell counts were 237.5±186.2/mmc. Of them, 224 (96.5%) attended IMT measurements; 201 (86.6%) attended both IMT assessment and psychological profiling. Mean follow-up was 782±308 days. Fifty-nine patients (29.4%) had CPs at baseline. Nineteen patients (9.5%) had ≥1 vascular event; 12 (6.0%) died due to such events (n = 4) or any cause. At baseline cross-sectional multivariate analysis, increasing age, total cholesterol, current smoking and Alexithymia score≥50 were significantly associated with both increased cIMT (linear regression) and CPs (logistic regression). At follow-up analysis, log-rank tests and Cox’s regression revealed that only older age (p = 0.001), current smoking (p = 0.019) and alexithymia score≥50 (p = 0.013) were independently associated with vascular events. Conclusions/Significance In HIV-infected subjects, the Alexithymic trait emerges as a strong predictor of increased IMT

  16. Psychological factors, including alexithymia, in the prediction of cardiovascular risk in HIV infected patients: results of a cohort study.

    PubMed

    Parruti, Giustino; Vadini, Francesco; Sozio, Federica; Mazzott, Elena; Ursini, Tamara; Polill, Ennio; Di Stefano, Paola; Tontodonati, Monica; Verrocchio, Maria C; Fulcheri, Mario; Calella, Giulio; Santilli, Francesca; Manzoli, Lamberto

    2013-01-01

    Psychological factors are known predictors of cardiovascular disease in many clinical settings, but data are lacking for HIV infection. We carried out a prospective cohort study to evaluate potential psychological predictors of preclinical and clinical vascular disease in HIV patients. HIV patients were consecutively enrolled. Demographics, viral and immune parameters and traditional cardiovascular predictors were considered; Intima-Media Thickness (c-IMT, continuous measure) and Carotid Plaques (CPs, focal thickening ≥1.5 mm) were investigated by B-mode ultrasonography; depressive symptoms by the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II), Type D personality (Distressed Personality or Type D) by the DS14, alexithymia by the Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20). Vascular outcomes included transient ischemic attacks or stroke, acute coronary syndrome, myocardial or other organ infarction. We enrolled 232 HIV subjects, 73.9% males, aged 44.5±9.9 y, 38.2% with AIDS diagnosis, 18.3% untreated. Mean Nadir CD4 T-cell counts were 237.5±186.2/mmc. Of them, 224 (96.5%) attended IMT measurements; 201 (86.6%) attended both IMT assessment and psychological profiling. Mean follow-up was 782±308 days. Fifty-nine patients (29.4%) had CPs at baseline. Nineteen patients (9.5%) had ≥1 vascular event; 12 (6.0%) died due to such events (n = 4) or any cause. At baseline cross-sectional multivariate analysis, increasing age, total cholesterol, current smoking and Alexithymia score≥50 were significantly associated with both increased cIMT (linear regression) and CPs (logistic regression). At follow-up analysis, log-rank tests and Cox's regression revealed that only older age (p = 0.001), current smoking (p = 0.019) and alexithymia score≥50 (p = 0.013) were independently associated with vascular events. In HIV-infected subjects, the Alexithymic trait emerges as a strong predictor of increased IMT, presence of CPs and vascular events. Such results are preliminary and require confirmation

  17. The application of motivational theory to cardiovascular risk reduction.

    PubMed

    Fleury, J

    1992-01-01

    The level of motivation sustained by an individual has been identified as a primary predictor of success in sustained cardiovascular risk factor modification efforts. This article reviews the primary motivational theories that have been used to explain and predict cardiovascular risk reduction. Specifically, the application of the Health Belief Model, Health Promotion Model, Theory of Reasoned Action, Theory of Planned Behavior and Self-efficacy Theory to the initiation and maintenance of cardiovascular health behavior is addressed. The implication of these theories for the development of nursing interventions as well as new directions for nursing research and practice in the study of individual motivation in health behavior change are discussed.

  18. Cardiovascular risk factors and lifestyle habits among preventive cardiovascular nurses.

    PubMed

    Fair, Joan M; Gulanick, Meg; Braun, Lynne T

    2009-01-01

    The cornerstone of cardiovascular disease prevention is the promotion of a healthy lifestyle and the identification and reduction of cardiovascular risk factors. Cardiology nurses play a major role in counseling patients about lifestyle and cardiovascular risk factors. We used an e-mail survey to elicit self-reported prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and healthy lifestyles among the Preventive Cardiovascular Nurses Association (PCNA) members and compared their risk profiles with published data for American cardiologists, the Nurses' Health Study 2, and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey data for women. A total of 1,345 complete surveys were collected. The respondents were mostly women (96%), with mean (SD) age of 47.4 (8.7) years. More than 95% were not cigarette smokers, more than 50% had a healthy body mass index (<25), and more than 56% achieved the recommended levels of physical activity. Nevertheless, obesity (body mass index ≥ 30) was a health risk in one-fifth of PCNA respondents. The rates of hypertension (17%) and dyslipidemia (15%) were lower than rates reported in other national samples; however, the rate for family history of premature heart disease (20%) was similar to those reported in national samples. Since family history of premature heart disease may be a more significant risk factor in women, PCNA respondents with such a family history may require targeted interventions to further reduce their risk and improve their lifestyle behaviors. PCNA nurses have more favorable lifestyle profiles compared with national samples. It can be expected that nurses who know their risk factors and who follow healthy lifestyle behaviors will be more effective in these counseling roles.

  19. Education and hypertension: impact on global cardiovascular risk.

    PubMed

    Di Chiara, Tiziana; Scaglione, Alessandra; Corrao, Salvatore; Argano, Christiano; Pinto, Antonio; Scaglione, Rosario

    2017-06-28

    Improving cardiovascular risk prediction continues to be a major challenge and effective prevention of cardiovascular disease. Accordingly, several studies have recently reported on the role of cardiovascular risk education. This study was designed to evaluate the impact of education on global cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients. The study population consisted of 223 consecutive hypertensive outpatients. Their educational status was categorized according to the number of years of formal education as follows: (1) low education (less than 10 years) and (2) medium-high education (10-15 years). In both groups, cardiometabolic comorbidities, global cardiovascular risk and echocardiographic measurements were analysed. Less educated hypertensive subjects were characterized by a significantly higher prevalence of patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS) (p < .01), greater global cardiovascular risk (p < .001), and a higher consumption of antihypertensive drugs (p < .01) rather than medium-high educated hypertensive subjects. In the same subjects, a significant increase in microalbuminuria (MA) (p < .01) and a significant decrease in E/A (p < .001) ratio was found. Univariate analysis indicated that global cardiovascular risk correlated directly with waist-hip ratio, mean blood pressure, MA, left ventricular mass index, MetS and inversely with education (r = -0.45; p < .001). Education was independently (p < .001) associated with global CV risk. Our data suggest that education may be considered the best predictor of global cardiovascular risk in hypertensives and thus has to be evaluated in the strategies of hypertension and cardiovascular risk management.

  20. Cardiovascular risk factors in young adults: a literature review.

    PubMed

    Tran, Dieu-My T; Zimmerman, Lani M

    2015-01-01

    This extensive literature review focuses on cardiovascular risk factors in young adults, with an emphasis on hyperlipidemia and hypertension. Multiple studies have confirmed that hyperlipidemia and hypertension during young adulthood are associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) in later decades, and CHD is one type of cardiovascular disease. The primary risk factors identified in the literature that are predictive of CHD are age; gender; race/ethnicity; smoking status; high blood pressure; and elevated lipid levels, especially low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. The current guidelines are insufficient to address screening and treatment in young adults with cardiovascular risk factors. Future studies are warranted to confirm the extent of cardiovascular risks in young adults, which can then be targeted to this population for prevention and intervention strategies.

  1. Independent effects of age-related changes in waist circumference and BMI z scores in predicting cardiovascular disease risk factors in a prospective cohort of adolescent females1234

    PubMed Central

    Tybor, David J; Lichtenstein, Alice H; Dallal, Gerard E; Daniels, Stephen R; Must, Aviva

    2011-01-01

    Background: Cross-sectional data indicate that central adiposity is associated with cardiovascular disease risk, independent of total adiposity. The use of longitudinal data to investigate the relation between changes in fat distribution and the emergence of risk factors is limited. Objective: We tested the hypothesis that age-related change in waist circumference (to reflect central adiposity) during adolescence is a significant predictor of longitudinal change in cardiovascular disease risk, after adjustment for change in body mass index (BMI) z score (to reflect total adiposity) in a cohort of postmenarcheal adolescent females. We also tested whether race modified this relation. Design: We analyzed publicly available data from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Growth and Health Study. Longitudinal regression models were fitted to investigate the independent effects of changes in waist circumference on cardiovascular disease risk factors. Results: Steeper age-related increases in waist circumference over time were associated with a greater increase in LDL-cholesterol concentrations, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, after adjustment for BMI z score, in white but not in black females. Change in waist circumference was not a statistically significant predictor of age-related changes in HDL-cholesterol, triglyceride, insulin, and glucose concentrations, after adjustment for changes in BMI z score, in either white or black females. Conclusions: Our research suggests that monitoring waist circumference in addition to BMI z score has the potential to identify adolescents at risk of the emergence of cardiovascular disease risk factors, at least in white females. The data also suggest that race may modify the relation between fat distribution pattern and cardiovascular disease risk factors. PMID:21147855

  2. Candy consumption in childhood is not predictive of weight, adiposity measures or cardiovascular risk factors in young adults: the Bogalusa Heart Study.

    PubMed

    O'Neil, C E; Nicklas, T A; Liu, Y; Berenson, G S

    2015-02-01

    There are limited data available on the longitudinal relationship between candy consumption by children on weight and other cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in young adults. The present study investigated whether candy consumption in children was predictive of weight and CVRF in young adults. A longitudinal sample of children 10 years (n = 355; 61% females; 71% European-Americans, 29% African-Americans) who participated in cross-sectional surveys from 1973 to 1984 (baseline) and in one of two surveys (follow-ups) as young adults [19-38 years; mean (SD) = 23.6 (2.6) years] in Bogalusa, LA, were studied. Dietary data were collected using 24-h dietary recalls at baseline and at one follow-up survey; a food frequency questionnaire was used in the other follow-up survey. Candy consumers were those consuming any amount of candy. Candy consumption was calculated (g day(-1) ) from baseline 24-h dietary recalls, and was used as a covariate in the adjusted linear mixed models. Dependent variables included body mass index (BMI) and CVRF measured in young adults. At baseline, 92% of children reported consuming candy [46 (45) g day(-1)]; the percentage decreased to 67% [20 (30) g day(-1)] at follow-up. No longitudinal relationship was shown between baseline candy consumption and BMI or CVRF in young adults, suggesting that candy consumption was not predictive of health risks later in life. The consumption of nutrient rich foods consistent with dietary recommendations is important, although modest amounts of candy can be added to the diet without potential adverse long-term consequences to weight or CVRF. Additional studies are needed to confirm these results. © 2013 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

  3. Candy consumption in childhood is not predictive of weight, adiposity measures or cardiovascular risk factors in young adults: the Bogalusa Heart Study

    PubMed Central

    O’Neil, C. E.; Nicklas, T. A.; Liu, Y.; Berenson, G. S.

    2015-01-01

    Background There are limited data available on the longitudinal relationship between candy consumption by children on weight and other cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in young adults. The present study investigated whether candy consumption in children was predictive of weight and CVRF in young adults. Methods A longitudinal sample of children 10 years (n = 355; 61% females; 71% European Americans, 29% African Americans) who partici pated in cross sectional surveys from 1973 to 1984 (baseline) and in one of two surveys (follow ups) as young adults [19–38] years; mean (SD) = 23.6 (2.6) years] in Bogalusa, LA, were studied. Dietary data were collected using 24 h dietary recalls at baseline and at one follow up survey; a food frequency questionnaire was used in the other follow up survey. Candy consumers were those consuming any amount of candy. Candy con sumption was calculated (g day−1) from baseline 24 h dietary recalls, and was used as a covariate in the adjusted linear mixed models. Dependent variables included body mass index (BMI) and CVRF measured in young adults. Results At baseline, 92% of children reported consuming candy [46 (45) g day−1]; the percentage decreased to 67% [20 (30) g day−1] at fol low up. No longitudinal relationship was shown between baseline candy consumption and BMI or CVRF in young adults, suggesting that candy consumption was not predictive of health risks later in life. Conclusions The consumption of nutrient rich foods consistent with die tary recommendations is important, although modest amounts of candy can be added to the diet without potential adverse long term consequences to weight or CVRF. Additional studies are needed to confirm these results. PMID:24382141

  4. Association of 10-year and lifetime predicted cardiovascular disease risk with subclinical atherosclerosis in South Asians: findings from the Mediators of Atherosclerosis in South Asians Living in America (MASALA) study.

    PubMed

    Kandula, Namratha R; Kanaya, Alka M; Liu, Kiang; Lee, Ji Young; Herrington, David; Hulley, Stephen B; Persell, Stephen D; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M; Huffman, Mark D

    2014-10-02

    Ten-year and lifetime cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms have been adopted into atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) prevention guidelines, but these prediction models are not based on South Asian populations and may underestimate the risk in Indians, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Nepali, and Sri Lankans in the United States. Little is known about ASCVD risk prediction and intermediate endpoints such as subclinical atherosclerosis in US individuals of South Asian ancestry. South Asians (n=893) from the Mediators of Atherosclerosis in South Asians Living in America (MASALA) study who were 40 to 79 years and free of ASCVD were included. Ten-year ASCVD predicted risk was calculated using the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations. Lifetime predicted risk was based on risk factor burden. Baseline levels of subclinical atherosclerosis (coronary artery calcium [CAC] and carotid intima media thickness [CIMT]) were compared across 10-year and lifetime risk strata: (1) high (≥7.5%) 10-year and low (<7.5%) 10-year risk; (2) high (≥39%) lifetime and low (<39%) lifetime risk. South Asian men and women with high 10-year predicted risk had a significantly greater CAC burden than those with low 10-year risk. South Asians with high lifetime predicted risk had a significantly increased odds for CAC higher than 0 (odds ratio: men 1.97; 95% CI, 1.2 to 3.2; women 3.14; 95% CI, 1.5, 6.6). Associations between risk strata and CIMT were also present. This study is the first to provide evidence that contemporary ASCVD risk assessment algorithms derived from non-Hispanic white and African-American samples can successfully identify substantial differences in atherosclerotic burden in US South Asians. © 2014 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  5. High cardiovascular risk in Spanish workers.

    PubMed

    Sánchez Chaparro, M A; Calvo Bonacho, E; González Quintela, A; Cabrera, M; Sáinz, J C; Fernández-Labander, C; Quevedo-Aguado, L; Gelpi, J A; Fernández Meseguer, A; Brotons, C; de Teresa, E; González Santos, P; Román García, J

    2011-04-01

    To investigate the prevalence of high cardiovascular risk in the Spanish working population, and its distribution among different occupations and gender. Cross-sectional study of 309,955 workers (72.6% males, mean age 36.5 years, range 16-74 years), who underwent a routine medical check-up. Workers were classified as high, intermediate or low cardiovascular risk, according to the SCORE system. Workers with a relative risk greater than 4 were also considered as high-risk. The prevalence of high cardiovascular risk was 7.6% (95% CI 7.5-7.7) in males and 1.7% (95% CI 1.6-1.8) in females. After adjusting for age and gender, the prevalence of high cardiovascular risk was greater in workers from the Agriculture and Construction sectors than in those from Industry and Service sectors. The prevalence of high cardiovascular risk was higher in blue-collar than in white-collar occupations. A sizeable proportion of workers, especially blue-collar males, are at high cardiovascular risk. Knowledge of this risk for certain workers may serve as a basis for preventive strategies. Copyright © 2009. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  6. Waist circumference values equivalent to body mass index points for predicting absolute cardiovascular disease risks among adults in an Aboriginal community: a prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Adegbija, Odewumi; Hoy, Wendy E; Wang, Zhiqiang

    2015-11-13

    There have been suggestions that currently recommended waist circumference (WC) cut-off points for Australians of European origin may not be applicable to Aboriginal people who have different body habitus profiles. We aimed to generate equivalent WC values that correspond to body mass index (BMI) points for identifying absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks. Prospective cohort study. An Aboriginal community in Australia's Northern Territory. From 1992 to 1998, 920 adults without CVD, with age, WC and BMI measurements were followed-up for up to 20 years. Incident CVD, coronary artery disease (CAD) and heart failure (HF) events during the follow-up period ascertained from hospitalisation data. We generated WC values with 10-year absolute risks equivalent for the development of CVD as BMI values (20-34 kg/m(2)) using the Weibull accelerated time-failure model. There were 211 incident cases of CVD over 13,669 person-years of follow-up. At the average age of 35 years, WC values with absolute CVD, CAD and HF risks equivalent to BMI of 25 kg/m(2) were 91.5, 91.8 and 91.7 cm, respectively, for males, and corresponding WC values were 92.5, 92.7 and 93 cm for females. WC values with equal absolute CVD, CAD and HF risks to BMI of 30 kg/m(2) were 101.7, 103.1 and 102.6 cm, respectively, for males, and corresponding values were 99.2, 101.6 and 101.5 cm for females. Association between WC and CVD did not depend on gender (p=0.54). WC ranging from 91 to 93 cm was equivalent to BMI 25 kg/m(2) for overweight, and 99 to 103 cm was equivalent to BMI of 30 kg/m(2) for obesity in terms of predicting 10-year absolute CVD risk. Replicating the absolute risk method in other Aboriginal communities will further validate the WC values generated for future development of WC cut-off points for Aboriginal people. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  7. Waist circumference values equivalent to body mass index points for predicting absolute cardiovascular disease risks among adults in an Aboriginal community: a prospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Adegbija, Odewumi; Hoy, Wendy E; Wang, Zhiqiang

    2015-01-01

    Objective There have been suggestions that currently recommended waist circumference (WC) cut-off points for Australians of European origin may not be applicable to Aboriginal people who have different body habitus profiles. We aimed to generate equivalent WC values that correspond to body mass index (BMI) points for identifying absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting An Aboriginal community in Australia's Northern Territory. Participants From 1992 to 1998, 920 adults without CVD, with age, WC and BMI measurements were followed-up for up to 20 years. Outcome measures Incident CVD, coronary artery disease (CAD) and heart failure (HF) events during the follow-up period ascertained from hospitalisation data. We generated WC values with 10-year absolute risks equivalent for the development of CVD as BMI values (20–34 kg/m2) using the Weibull accelerated time-failure model. Results There were 211 incident cases of CVD over 13 669 person-years of follow-up. At the average age of 35 years, WC values with absolute CVD, CAD and HF risks equivalent to BMI of 25 kg/m2 were 91.5, 91.8 and 91.7 cm, respectively, for males, and corresponding WC values were 92.5, 92.7 and 93 cm for females. WC values with equal absolute CVD, CAD and HF risks to BMI of 30 kg/m2 were 101.7, 103.1 and 102.6 cm, respectively, for males, and corresponding values were 99.2, 101.6 and 101.5 cm for females. Association between WC and CVD did not depend on gender (p=0.54). Conclusions WC ranging from 91 to 93 cm was equivalent to BMI 25 kg/m2 for overweight, and 99 to 103 cm was equivalent to BMI of 30 kg/m2 for obesity in terms of predicting 10-year absolute CVD risk. Replicating the absolute risk method in other Aboriginal communities will further validate the WC values generated for future development of WC cut-off points for Aboriginal people. PMID:26567258

  8. Phase-rectified signal averaging for the detection of quasi-periodicities and the prediction of cardiovascular risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kantelhardt, Jan W.; Bauer, Axel; Schumann, Aicko Y.; Barthel, Petra; Schneider, Raphael; Malik, Marek; Schmidt, Georg

    2007-03-01

    We present the phase-rectified signal averaging (PRSA) method as an efficient technique for the study of quasi-periodic oscillations in noisy, nonstationary signals. It allows the assessment of system dynamics despite phase resetting and noise and in relation with either increases or decreases of the considered signal. We employ the method to study the quasi-periodicities of the human heart rate based on long-term ECG recordings. The center deflection of the PRSA curve characterizes the average capacity of the heart to decelerate (or accelerate) the cardiac rhythm. It can be measured by a central wavelet coefficient which we denote as deceleration capacity (DC). We find that decreased DC is a more precise predictor of mortality in survivors of heart attack than left ventricular ejection fraction, the current "gold standard" risk predictor. In addition, we discuss the dependence of the DC parameter on age and on diabetes.

  9. Modified lipoproteins as biomarkers of cardiovascular risk in diabetes mellitus.

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Quesada, José Luis; Pérez, Antonio

    2013-11-01

    Prevention of high incidence of cardiovascular disease in diabetes is one of the challenges of endocrinology. Validation of new biomarkers that may contribute to a better assessment of cardiovascular risk and help implement treatment strategies is one of the promising approaches in research on prevention and reduction of cardiovascular risk. Modification of low density lipoprotein (LDL) is a key element in development of atherosclerotic lesions. Several pathophysiological characteristics of diabetes are crucial for the LDL of these patients to have higher modification rates as compared to the healthy population. Diabetic dyslipidemia, hyperglycemia, and oxidative stress synergistically promote the occurrence of lipoperoxidation, glycosylation and glycoxidation processes, which will generate modified lipoproteins that stimulate development of atherosclerosis. This article reviews the role of different types of modified LDL in development of atherosclerosis in diabetes, as well as the possibility of using its quantification in cardiovascular risk prediction. Copyright © 2012 SEEN. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  10. Biomarker-Based Risk Model to Predict Cardiovascular Mortality in Patients With Stable Coronary Disease.

    PubMed

    Lindholm, Daniel; Lindbäck, Johan; Armstrong, Paul W; Budaj, Andrzej; Cannon, Christopher P; Granger, Christopher B; Hagström, Emil; Held, Claes; Koenig, Wolfgang; Östlund, Ollie; Stewart, Ralph A H; Soffer, Joseph; White, Harvey D; de Winter, Robbert J; Steg, Philippe Gabriel; Siegbahn, Agneta; Kleber, Marcus E; Dressel, Alexander; Grammer, Tanja B; März, Winfried; Wallentin, Lars

    2017-08-15

    Currently, there is no generally accepted model to predict outcomes in stable coronary heart disease (CHD). This study evaluated and compared the prognostic value of biomarkers and clinical variables to develop a biomarker-based prediction model in patients with stable CHD. In a prospective, randomized trial cohort of 13,164 patients with stable CHD, we analyzed several candidate biomarkers and clinical variables and used multivariable Cox regression to develop a clinical prediction model based on the most important markers. The primary outcome was cardiovascular (CV) death, but model performance was also explored for other key outcomes. It was internally bootstrap validated, and externally validated in 1,547 patients in another study. During a median follow-up of 3.7 years, there were 591 cases of CV death. The 3 most important biomarkers were N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, where NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT had greater prognostic value than any other biomarker or clinical variable. The final prediction model included age (A), biomarkers (B) (NT-proBNP, hs-cTnT, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol), and clinical variables (C) (smoking, diabetes mellitus, and peripheral arterial disease). This "ABC-CHD" model had high discriminatory ability for CV death (c-index 0.81 in derivation cohort, 0.78 in validation cohort), with adequate calibration in both cohorts. This model provided a robust tool for the prediction of CV death in patients with stable CHD. As it is based on a small number of readily available biomarkers and clinical factors, it can be widely employed to complement clinical assessment and guide management based on CV risk. (The Stabilization of Atherosclerotic Plaque by Initiation of Darapladib Therapy Trial [STABILITY]; NCT00799903). Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  11. [Subclinical hypothyroidism and cardiovascular risk].

    PubMed

    López Rubio, María Antonia; Tárraga López, Pedro Juan; Rodríguez Montes, José Antonio; Frías López, María del Carmen; Solera Albero, Juan; Bermejo López, Pablo

    2015-05-01

    Objetivos: Valorar si el hipotiroidismo subclínico puede comportarse como un factor de riesgo cardiovascular o un modificador del mismo, identificando variables epidemiológicas y riesgo cardiovascular estimado en una muestra de sujetos diagnosticados en la provincia de Albacete. Método: Estudio observacional, descriptivo y transversal realizado en Albacete durante la primera quincena de enero de 2012 en pacientes de ambos géneros con hipotiroidismo subclínico. Se analizaron las siguientes variables: glucemia basal, colesterol total, colesterol HDL, colesterol LDL, triglicéridos, TSH, T4, peso, talla, I.M.C., tensión arterial, antecedentes de patología cardiovascular, factores de riesgo cardiovascular y riesgo cardiovascular estimado. Resultados: Se obtuvieron 326 pacientes, con predominio femenino (79,2 %), menores de 65 años en el 78% y sin factores de riesgo cardiovascular en el 48,61%. La prevalencia de los factores de riesgo cardiovascular identificados fué: tabaquismo (33,2%), diabetes mellitus (24,9%), hipertensión arterial (23,4%), alteraciones lipídicas (28,9%) y fibrilación auricular (4,9 %). No se encontró asociación entre hipotiroidismo subclínico y la mayoría de los parámetros del perfil lipídico que condicionan un perfil pro-aterogénico, salvo con la hipertrigliceridemia. Asimismo, tampoco se constató asociación con riesgo cardiovascular aumentado. Conclusiones: El perfil del paciente con hipotiroidismo subclínico es una mujer de mediana edad sin factores de riesgo cardiovascular en la mitad de casos. Se ha encontrado relación entre hipotiroidismo subclínico e hipertrigliceridemia, pero no con el resto de parámetros del perfil lipídico, otros factores de riesgo cardiovascular o con aumento de dicho riesgo. Sin embargo, un 25% de diabéticos y un 22% de no diabéticos están en situación de riesgo cardiovascular moderado-alto.

  12. Exercise for people with high cardiovascular risk.

    PubMed

    Seron, Pamela; Lanas, Fernando; Pardo Hernandez, Hector; Bonfill Cosp, Xavier

    2014-08-13

    When two or more cardiovascular risk factors occur in one individual, they may interact in a multiplicative way promoting cardiovascular disease. Exercise has proven to be effective in controlling individual risk factors but its effect on overall cardiovascular risk remains uncertain. To assess the effects of exercise training in people with increased cardiovascular risk but without a concurrent cardiovascular disease on general cardiovascular mortality, incidence of cardiovascular events, and total cardiovascular risk. A search was conducted in CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library 2013, Issue 10 of 12), Ovid MEDLINE (1946 to week 2 November 2013), EMBASE Classic + EMBASE via Ovid (1947 to Week 47 2013), CINAHL Plus with Full Text via EBSCO (to November 2013), Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED) (1970 to 22 November 2013), and Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science (CPCI-S) (1990 to 22 November 2013) on Web of Science (Thomson Reuters). We did not apply any date or language restrictions. Randomized clinical trials comparing aerobic or resistance exercise training versus no exercise or any standard approach that does not include exercise. Participants had to be 18 years of age or older with an average 10-year Framingham risk score of 10% for cardiovascular disease over 10 years, or with two or more cardiovascular risk factors, and no history of cardiovascular disease. The selection of studies and subsequent data collection process were conducted by two independent authors. Disagreements were solved by consensus. The results were reported descriptively. It was not possible to conduct a meta-analysis because of the high heterogeneity and high risk of bias in the included studies. A total of four studies were included that involved 823 participants, 412 in the exercise group and 411 in the control group. Follow-up of participants ranged from 16 weeks to 6 months. Overall, the included studies had a high risk of selection, detection, and attrition bias

  13. Metabolic biomarkers for predicting cardiovascular disease

    PubMed Central

    Montgomery, Jana E; Brown, Jeremiah R

    2013-01-01

    Cardiac and peripheral vascular biomarkers are increasingly becoming targets of both research and clinical practice. As of 2008, cardiovascular-related medical care accounts for greater than 20% of all the economic costs of illness in the United States. In the age of burgeoning financial pressures on the entire health care system, never has it been more important to try to understand who is at risk for cardiovascular disease in order to prevent new events. In this paper, we will discuss the cost of cardiovascular disease to society, clarify the definition of and need for biomarkers, offer an example of a current biomarker, namely high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and finally examine the approval process for utilizing these in clinical practice. PMID:23386789

  14. Ideal Cardiovascular Health Predicts Lower Risks of Myocardial Infarction, Stroke, and Vascular Death across Whites, Blacks and Hispanics: the Northern Manhattan Study

    PubMed Central

    Dong, Chuanhui; Rundek, Tatjana; Wright, Clinton B.; Anwar, Zane; Elkind, Mitchell S.V.; Sacco, Ralph L.

    2012-01-01

    Background Evidence regarding the relationship of cardiovascular health (CVH) defined by the American Heart Association (AHA) and specific cardiovascular outcomes is lacking, particularly among Hispanics. This study sought to evaluate the relationship between the number of ideal CVH metrics and cardiovascular risk, overall and by event subtype, in a multiethnic community-based prospective cohort. Methods and Results 2981 subjects (mean age 69±10 years, 54% Caribbean Hispanic, 25% black, 21% white) free of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke at baseline in the Northern Manhattan Study were prospectively followed (median follow-up 11 years). The relationship between the number of ideal CVH metrics and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), including MI, stroke and vascular death was investigated. Overall, a strong gradient relationship was observed between the adjusted hazard ratios for CVD and the number of ideal CVH metrics: 0.73 (95% CI: 0.60–0.89), 0.61 (0.50–0.76), 0.49 (0.38–0.63) and 0.41 (0.26–0.63), respectively, for those having 2, 3, 4, and 5–6 ideal CVH metrics compared with those having 0–1 ideal CVH metrics (P for trend <0.0001). Similar graded relationships were found between the number of ideal CVH metrics and the adjusted incidence rate for each specific outcome and among whites, blacks, and Caribbean Hispanics. Conclusions Our findings demonstrated a steep gradient relationship between ideal CVH and individual CVD endpoints, including stroke, which was similar for whites, blacks and Caribbean Hispanics. This evidence supports the application of the AHA ideal cardiovascular health metrics for CVD risk assessment and health promotion for all Americans regardless of race-ethnic background. PMID:22619283

  15. Relationship Between Sedentary Behavior and Cardiovascular Risk.

    PubMed

    Same, Robert V; Feldman, David I; Shah, Nishant; Martin, Seth S; Al Rifai, Mahmoud; Blaha, Michael J; Graham, Garth; Ahmed, Haitham M

    2016-01-01

    The majority of adults do not meet current guideline recommendations for moderate to vigorous physical activity. Recent research has linked a high amount of sedentary behavior with an increased risk of obesity, diabetes, the metabolic syndrome, cardiovascular disease, and death. This correlation with sedentary behavior even extends to individuals who meet recommended physical activity goals during the remainder of their day, which implies that sedentary behavior may represent a distinct cardiovascular risk factor that is independent of the overall amount of physical activity. During the past several years, there has been significant interest in identifying and understanding the mechanisms through which sedentary behavior affects cardiovascular health. In this review, we critically evaluate the literature pertaining to sedentary behavior and cardiovascular risk with an emphasis on studies published over the past year, and we suggest possible interventions that may help reduce sedentary behavior time.

  16. [Cardiovascular risk factors in young people].

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Contreras, Mónica; Moreno-Gómez, Germán A; Marín-Grisales, Marta E; García-Ortiz, Luis H

    2009-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) involves several disorders related to the formation and development of atherosclerotic processes. Several risk factors are involved in CVD aetiology; some of them (i.e. age, hypertension, obesity, dislipidemia and diabetes) have been clearly associated, whereas others have a variable level of association. An increase in cardiovascular risk factors has been recently reported in the young population; studies of cardiovascular risk factors in this population have shown that its cardiovascular risk profile could be different from that presented by older populations. This review presents a summary of reported cardiovascular risk factors in the young population and their causes which have been released and indexed in different databases. Most factors discussed are life-habit risk factors and represent direct targets for clinical intervention. We propose that primary CVD prevention should include a more detailed knowledge of the nature of the risk factors concerning the young population and could have a positive impact on CVD prevalence during the next few years.

  17. Cost-effectiveness of coronary artery calcium testing for coronary heart and cardiovascular disease risk prediction to guide statin allocation: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

    PubMed

    Roberts, Eric T; Horne, Aaron; Martin, Seth S; Blaha, Michael J; Blankstein, Ron; Budoff, Matthew J; Sibley, Christopher; Polak, Joseph F; Frick, Kevin D; Blumenthal, Roger S; Nasir, Khurram

    2015-01-01

    The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) showed that the addition of coronary artery calcium (CAC) to traditional risk factors improves risk classification, particularly in intermediate risk asymptomatic patients with LDL cholesterol levels <160 mg/dL. However, the cost-effectiveness of incorporating CAC into treatment decision rules has yet to be clearly delineated. To model the cost-effectiveness of CAC for cardiovascular risk stratification in asymptomatic, intermediate risk patients not taking a statin. Treatment based on CAC was compared to (1) treatment of all intermediate-risk patients, and (2) treatment on the basis of United States guidelines. We developed a Markov model of first coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. We modeled statin treatment in intermediate risk patients with CAC≥1 and CAC≥100, with different intensities of statins based on the CAC score. We compared these CAC-based treatment strategies to a "treat all" strategy and to treatment according to the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III) guidelines. Clinical and economic outcomes were modeled over both five- and ten-year time horizons. Outcomes consisted of CHD and CVD events and Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). Sensitivity analyses considered the effect of higher event rates, different CAC and statin costs, indirect costs, and re-scanning patients with incidentalomas. We project that it is both cost-saving and more effective to scan intermediate-risk patients for CAC and to treat those with CAC≥1, compared to treatment based on established risk-assessment guidelines. Treating patients with CAC≥100 is also preferred to existing guidelines when we account for statin side effects and the disutility of statin use. Compared to the alternatives we assessed, CAC testing is both effective and cost saving as a risk-stratification tool, particularly if there are adverse effects of long-term statin use. CAC may enable providers to better tailor

  18. Clinical risk stratification in the emergency department predicts long-term cardiovascular outcomes in a population-based cohort presenting with acute chest pain: primary results of the Olmsted county chest pain study.

    PubMed

    Farkouh, Michael E; Aneja, Ashish; Reeder, Guy S; Smars, Peter A; Bansilal, Sameer; Lennon, Ryan J; Wiste, Heather J; Razzouk, Louai; Traverse, Kay; Holmes, David R; Mathew, Verghese

    2009-09-01

    The long-term cardiovascular outcomes of a population-based cohort presenting to the emergency department (ED) with chest pain and classified with a clinical risk stratification algorithm are not well documented. The Olmsted County Chest Pain Study is a community-based study that included all consecutive patients presenting with chest pain consistent with unstable angina presenting to all EDs in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Patients were classified according to the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research (AHCPR) criteria. Patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction and chest pain of noncardiac origin were excluded. Main outcome measures were major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) at 30 days and at a median follow-up of 7.3 years, and mortality through a median of 16.6 years.The 2271 patients were classified as follows: 436 (19.2%) as high risk, 1557 (68.6%) as intermediate risk, and 278 (12.2%) as low risk. Thirty-day MACCE occurred in 11.5% in the high-risk group, 6.2% in the intermediate-risk group, and 2.5% in the low-risk group (p < 0.001). At 7.3 years, significantly more MACCE were recorded in the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.91; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 1.33-2.75) and high-risk groups (HR, 2.45; 95% CI, 1.67-3.58). Intermediate- and high-risk patients demonstrated a 1.38-fold (95% CI, 0.95-2.01; p = 0.09) and a 1.68-fold (95% CI, 1.13-2.50; p = 0.011) higher mortality, respectively, compared to low-risk patients at 16.6 years. At 7.3 and at 16.6 years of follow-up, biomarkers were not incrementally predictive of cardiovascular risk.In conclusion, a widely applicable rapid clinical algorithm using AHCPR criteria can reliably predict long-term mortality and cardiovascular outcomes. This algorithm, when applied in the ED, affords an excellent opportunity to identify patients who might benefit from a more aggressive cardiovascular risk factor management strategy.

  19. Space radiation and cardiovascular disease risk

    PubMed Central

    Boerma, Marjan; Nelson, Gregory A; Sridharan, Vijayalakshmi; Mao, Xiao-Wen; Koturbash, Igor; Hauer-Jensen, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Future long-distance space missions will be associated with significant exposures to ionizing radiation, and the health risks of these radiation exposures during manned missions need to be assessed. Recent Earth-based epidemiological studies in survivors of atomic bombs and after occupational and medical low dose radiation exposures have indicated that the cardiovascular system may be more sensitive to ionizing radiation than was previously thought. This has raised the concern of a cardiovascular disease risk from exposure to space radiation during long-distance space travel. Ground-based studies with animal and cell culture models play an important role in estimating health risks from space radiation exposure. Charged particle space radiation has dense ionization characteristics and may induce unique biological responses, appropriate simulation of the space radiation environment and careful consideration of the choice of the experimental model are critical. Recent studies have addressed cardiovascular effects of space radiation using such models and provided first results that aid in estimating cardiovascular disease risk, and several other studies are ongoing. Moreover, astronauts could potentially be administered pharmacological countermeasures against adverse effects of space radiation, and research is focused on the development of such compounds. Because the cardiovascular response to space radiation has not yet been clearly defined, the identification of potential pharmacological countermeasures against cardiovascular effects is still in its infancy. PMID:26730293

  20. Space radiation and cardiovascular disease risk.

    PubMed

    Boerma, Marjan; Nelson, Gregory A; Sridharan, Vijayalakshmi; Mao, Xiao-Wen; Koturbash, Igor; Hauer-Jensen, Martin

    2015-12-26

    Future long-distance space missions will be associated with significant exposures to ionizing radiation, and the health risks of these radiation exposures during manned missions need to be assessed. Recent Earth-based epidemiological studies in survivors of atomic bombs and after occupational and medical low dose radiation exposures have indicated that the cardiovascular system may be more sensitive to ionizing radiation than was previously thought. This has raised the concern of a cardiovascular disease risk from exposure to space radiation during long-distance space travel. Ground-based studies with animal and cell culture models play an important role in estimating health risks from space radiation exposure. Charged particle space radiation has dense ionization characteristics and may induce unique biological responses, appropriate simulation of the space radiation environment and careful consideration of the choice of the experimental model are critical. Recent studies have addressed cardiovascular effects of space radiation using such models and provided first results that aid in estimating cardiovascular disease risk, and several other studies are ongoing. Moreover, astronauts could potentially be administered pharmacological countermeasures against adverse effects of space radiation, and research is focused on the development of such compounds. Because the cardiovascular response to space radiation has not yet been clearly defined, the identification of potential pharmacological countermeasures against cardiovascular effects is still in its infancy.

  1. Urinary Osteopontin Predicts Incident Chronic Kidney Disease, while Plasma Osteopontin Predicts Cardiovascular Death in Elderly Men.

    PubMed

    Feldreich, Tobias; Carlsson, Axel C; Helmersson-Karlqvist, Johanna; Risérus, Ulf; Larsson, Anders; Lind, Lars; Ärnlöv, Johan

    2017-06-01

    The matricellular protein osteopontin is involved in the pathogenesis of both kidney and cardiovascular disease. However, whether circulating and urinary osteopontin levels are associated with the risk of these diseases is less studied. A community-based cohort of elderly men (Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men [ULSAM]; n = 741; mean age: 77 years) was used to study the associations between plasma and urinary osteopontin, incident chronic kidney disease, and the risk of cardiovascular death during a median of 8 years of follow-up. There was no significant cross-sectional correlation between plasma and urinary osteopontin (Spearman ρ = 0.07, p = 0.13). Higher urinary osteopontin, but not plasma osteopontin, was associated with incident chronic kidney disease in multivariable models adjusted for age, cardiovascular risk factors, baseline glomerular filtration rate, urinary albumin/creatinine ratio, and the inflammatory markers interleukin 6 and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (odds ratio for 1 standard deviation [SD] of urinary osteopontin, 1.42, 95% CI 1.00-2.02, p = 0.048). Conversely, plasma osteopontin, but not urinary osteopontin, was independently associated with cardiovascular death (multivariable hazard ratio per SD increase, 1.35, 95% CI 1.14-1.58, p < 0.001, and 1.00, 95% CI 0.79-1.26, p = 0.99, respectively). The addition of plasma osteopontin to a model with established cardiovascular risk factors significantly increased the C-statistics for the prediction of cardiovascular death (p < 0.002). Higher urinary osteopontin specifically predicts incident chronic kidney disease, while plasma osteopontin specifically predicts cardiovascular death. Our data put forward osteopontin as an important factor in the detrimental interplay between the kidney and the cardiovascular system. The clinical implications, and why plasma and urinary osteopontin mirror different pathologies, remain to be established.

  2. Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital

    PubMed Central

    Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W.; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E.

    2014-01-01

    Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions. PMID:25404329

  3. Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

    PubMed

    Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E

    2014-12-02

    Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.

  4. Predictive modeling of cardiovascular complications in incident hemodialysis patients.

    PubMed

    Ion Titapiccolo, J; Ferrario, M; Barbieri, C; Marcelli, D; Mari, F; Gatti, E; Cerutti, S; Smyth, P; Signorini, M G

    2012-01-01

    The administration of hemodialysis (HD) treatment leads to the continuous collection of a vast quantity of medical data. Many variables related to the patient health status, to the treatment, and to dialyzer settings can be recorded and stored at each treatment session. In this study a dataset of 42 variables and 1526 patients extracted from the Fresenius Medical Care database EuCliD was used to develop and apply a random forest predictive model for the prediction of cardiovascular events in the first year of HD treatment. A ridge-lasso logistic regression algorithm was then applied to the subset of variables mostly involved in the prediction model to get insights in the mechanisms underlying the incidence of cardiovascular complications in this high risk population of patients.

  5. Bariatric surgery, lipoprotein metabolism and cardiovascular risk.

    PubMed

    Tailleux, Anne; Rouskas, Konstantinos; Pattou, François; Staels, Bart

    2015-08-01

    To summarize recent epidemiological, preclinical and clinical studies on the effects of Roux-en-Y-gastric bypass (RYGBP) surgery on cardiovascular risk factors and the underlying mechanisms. Although RYGBP has mechanical effects on the gastrointestinal tract, the reduced gastric pouch and intestinal calorie absorption cannot fully explain the metabolic improvements. Obesity predisposes to cardiovascular risk factors such as dyslipidemia, type 2 diabetes, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and hypertension. In contrast to the limited success of pharmacological and lifestyle interventions, RYGBP induces sustained weight loss, metabolic improvements and decreases morbidity/mortality. In line, RYGBP reduces cardiovascular risk factors. Although the mechanisms are not entirely understood, RYGBP induces complex changes in the gut affecting other organs through endocrine and metabolic signals from the intestine to all key metabolic organs, which can link RYGBP and decreased cardiovascular risk. Here, we discuss the roles of changes in lipid absorption and metabolism, bile acid metabolism, gut hormones and the microbiote as potential mechanisms in the decreased cardiovascular risk and metabolic improvement after RYGBP.

  6. Cardiovascular disease risk in women with migraine.

    PubMed

    Rockett, Fernanda Camboim; Perla, Alexandre da Silveira; Perry, Ingrid D Schweigert; Chaves, Márcia L Fagundes

    2013-09-06

    Studies suggest a higher prevalence of unfavourable cardiovascular risk factors amongst migraineurs, but results have been conflicting. The aim of this study was to investigate traditional and newly recognized risk factors as well as other surrogate markers of cardiovascular risk in obese and normal weight women with migraine. Fifty-nine adult female probands participated in this case-control study. The sample was divided into normal weight and obese migraineurs and age- and body mass index-matched control groups. The following cardiovascular risk factors were analyzed: serum levels of lipids, fasting glucose, and insulin; insulin resistance; blood pressure; smoking (categorized as current, past or never); Framingham 10-year risk of general cardiovascular disease score; C-reactive protein; family history of cardiovascular disease; physical activity; sleep disturbances; depression; and bioelectrical impedance phase angle. The means of continuous variables were compared using Student's t-test for independent samples or the Mann-Whitney U-test (for 2 groups) and ANOVA or the Kruskal-Wallis test (for 4 groups) depending on the distribution of data. All migraineurs were sedentary irrespective of nutritional status. Migraineurs had higher depression scores and shorter sleep duration, and obese migraineurs, in particular, had worse sleep quality scores. Insulin resistance and insulinaemia were associated with obesity, and obese migraineurs had lower HDL-c than normal weight controls and migraineurs. Also, the Framingham risk score was higher in obese migraineurs. These findings suggest that female migraineurs experience marked inactivity, depression, and some sleep disturbance, that higher insulin resistance and insulinaemia are related to obesity, and that obesity and migraine probably exert overlapping effects on HDL-c levels and Framingham 10-year cardiovascular risk.

  7. Cardiovascular disease risk in women with migraine

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Studies suggest a higher prevalence of unfavourable cardiovascular risk factors amongst migraineurs, but results have been conflicting. The aim of this study was to investigate traditional and newly recognized risk factors as well as other surrogate markers of cardiovascular risk in obese and normal weight women with migraine. Methods Fifty-nine adult female probands participated in this case–control study. The sample was divided into normal weight and obese migraineurs and age- and body mass index-matched control groups. The following cardiovascular risk factors were analyzed: serum levels of lipids, fasting glucose, and insulin; insulin resistance; blood pressure; smoking (categorized as current, past or never); Framingham 10-year risk of general cardiovascular disease score; C-reactive protein; family history of cardiovascular disease; physical activity; sleep disturbances; depression; and bioelectrical impedance phase angle. The means of continuous variables were compared using Student’s t-test for independent samples or the Mann–Whitney U-test (for 2 groups) and ANOVA or the Kruskal-Wallis test (for 4 groups) depending on the distribution of data. Results All migraineurs were sedentary irrespective of nutritional status. Migraineurs had higher depression scores and shorter sleep duration, and obese migraineurs, in particular, had worse sleep quality scores. Insulin resistance and insulinaemia were associated with obesity, and obese migraineurs had lower HDL-c than normal weight controls and migraineurs. Also, the Framingham risk score was higher in obese migraineurs. Conclusion These findings suggest that female migraineurs experience marked inactivity, depression, and some sleep disturbance, that higher insulin resistance and insulinaemia are related to obesity, and that obesity and migraine probably exert overlapping effects on HDL-c levels and Framingham 10-year cardiovascular risk. PMID:24011175

  8. Framingham Risk Score underestimates cardiovascular disease risk in severe psoriatic patients: implications in cardiovascular risk factors management and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Torres, Tiago; Sales, Rita; Vasconcelos, Carlos; Martins da Silva, Berta; Selores, Manuela

    2013-11-01

    Severe psoriasis has been associated with increase cardiovascular mortality, due to a higher prevalence of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and premature atherosclerosis, as a consequence of its systemic inflammation. Recently, it has been estimated that severe psoriasis may confer an increased 6.2% on long-term risk of cardiovascular disease based on Framingham Risk Score, which can have practical implications in the treatment of cardiovascular risk factors and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, as treatment guidelines account for the risk of cardiovascular disease in treatment goals. The aim of this study was to analyze the influence of the attributable risk of severe psoriasis on long-term risk of cardiovascular disease and its implication on the correct treatment of cardiovascular risk factors and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease on a real-world cohort of patients. One hundred severe psoriasis patients without psoriatic arthritis or previous cardiovascular disease were evaluated and it was found that more than half of the patients were reclassified to a higher cardiovascular risk category with important clinical implications on the correct management of their cardiovascular risk factors and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, as a considerable proportion of patients with hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and coronary heart disease equivalent risk were not being correctly managed.

  9. Using Predicted Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Conjunction With Blood Pressure to Guide Antihypertensive Medication Treatment.

    PubMed

    Muntner, Paul; Whelton, Paul K

    2017-05-16

    Using cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk instead of or in addition to blood pressure (BP) to guide antihypertensive treatment is an active area of research. The purpose of this review is to provide an overview of studies that could inform this treatment paradigm. We review data from randomized trials on relative and absolute CVD risk reduction that can occur when antihypertensive treatment is guided by CVD risk. We also review population-level data on using CVD risk in conjunction with BP to guide antihypertensive treatment, the broad distribution in CVD risk for people with similar BP levels, and the use of CVD risk for guiding antihypertensive treatment among subgroups including older adults, young adults, and those with diabetes mellitus or chronic kidney disease. In addition, we review potential challenges in implementing antihypertensive treatment recommendations that incorporate CVD risk. In closing, we provide recommendations for using CVD risk in combination with BP to guide antihypertensive treatment. Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Renal function estimation and Cockroft-Gault formulas for predicting cardiovascular mortality in population-based, cardiovascular risk, heart failure and post-myocardial infarction cohorts: The Heart 'OMics' in AGEing (HOMAGE) and the high-risk myocardial infarction database initiatives.

    PubMed

    Ferreira, João Pedro; Girerd, Nicolas; Pellicori, Pierpaolo; Duarte, Kevin; Girerd, Sophie; Pfeffer, Marc A; McMurray, John J V; Pitt, Bertram; Dickstein, Kenneth; Jacobs, Lotte; Staessen, Jan A; Butler, Javed; Latini, Roberto; Masson, Serge; Mebazaa, Alexandre; Rocca, Hans Peter Brunner-La; Delles, Christian; Heymans, Stephane; Sattar, Naveed; Jukema, J Wouter; Cleland, John G; Zannad, Faiez; Rossignol, Patrick

    2016-11-10

    Renal impairment is a major risk factor for mortality in various populations. Three formulas are frequently used to assess both glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or creatinine clearance (CrCl) and mortality prediction: body surface area adjusted-Cockcroft-Gault (CG-BSA), Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study (MDRD4), and the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation. The CKD-EPI is the most accurate eGFR estimator as compared to a "gold-standard"; however, which of the latter is the best formula to assess prognosis remains to be clarified. This study aimed to compare the prognostic value of these formulas in predicting the risk of cardiovascular mortality (CVM) in population-based, cardiovascular risk, heart failure (HF) and post-myocardial infarction (MI) cohorts. Two previously published cohorts of pooled patient data derived from the partners involved in the HOMAGE-consortium and from four clinical trials - CAPRICORN, EPHESUS, OPTIMAAL and VALIANT - the high risk MI initiative, were used. A total of 54,111 patients were included in the present analysis: 2644 from population-based cohorts; 20,895 from cardiovascular risk cohorts; 1801 from heart failure cohorts; and 28,771 from post-myocardial infarction cohorts. Participants were patients enrolled in the respective cohorts and trials. The primary outcome was CVM. All formulas were strongly and independently associated with CVM. Lower eGFR/CrCl was associated with increasing CVM rates for values below 60 mL/min/m(2). Categorical renal function stages diverged in a more pronounced manner with the CG-BSA formula in all populations (higher χ(2) values), with lower stages showing stronger associations. The discriminative improvement driven by the CG-BSA formula was superior to that of MDRD4 and CKD-EPI, but remained low overall (increase in C-index ranging from 0.5 to 2 %) while not statistically significant in population-based cohorts. The integrated discrimination improvement and

  11. Barriers to women's cardiovascular risk knowledge.

    PubMed

    Liewer, Linda; Mains, Douglas A; Lykens, Kristine; René, Antonio A

    2008-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death for women in the United States, resulting in a greater emphasis on research and methods for addressing issues relating to this health problem both nationally and worldwide. The authors' purpose was to identify barriers to women's cardiovascular risk knowledge, both personal and organizational, through key informant interviews of health leaders at 10 community health organizations. Analysis showed an overall lack of awareness of CVD risk for women. Culture, finance, and lack of awareness and easily accessible programs implicated the importance of physicians as health care providers and educators for women patients.

  12. Cost-Effectiveness of Coronary Artery Calcium Testing for Coronary Heart and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction to Guide Statin Allocation: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

    PubMed Central

    Roberts, Eric T.; Horne, Aaron; Martin, Seth S.; Blaha, Michael J.; Blankstein, Ron; Budoff, Matthew J.; Sibley, Christopher; Polak, Joseph F.; Frick, Kevin D.; Blumenthal, Roger S.; Nasir, Khurram

    2015-01-01

    Background The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) showed that the addition of coronary artery calcium (CAC) to traditional risk factors improves risk classification, particularly in intermediate risk asymptomatic patients with LDL cholesterol levels <160 mg/dL. However, the cost-effectiveness of incorporating CAC into treatment decision rules has yet to be clearly delineated. Objective To model the cost-effectiveness of CAC for cardiovascular risk stratification in asymptomatic, intermediate risk patients not taking a statin. Treatment based on CAC was compared to (1) treatment of all intermediate-risk patients, and (2) treatment on the basis of United States guidelines. Methods We developed a Markov model of first coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. We modeled statin treatment in intermediate risk patients with CAC≥1 and CAC≥100, with different intensities of statins based on the CAC score. We compared these CAC-based treatment strategies to a “treat all” strategy and to treatment according to the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III) guidelines. Clinical and economic outcomes were modeled over both five- and ten-year time horizons. Outcomes consisted of CHD and CVD events and Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). Sensitivity analyses considered the effect of higher event rates, different CAC and statin costs, indirect costs, and re-scanning patients with incidentalomas. Results We project that it is both cost-saving and more effective to scan intermediate-risk patients for CAC and to treat those with CAC≥1, compared to treatment based on established risk-assessment guidelines. Treating patients with CAC≥100 is also preferred to existing guidelines when we account for statin side effects and the disutility of statin use. Conclusion Compared to the alternatives we assessed, CAC testing is both effective and cost saving as a risk-stratification tool, particularly if there are adverse effects of long-term statin

  13. Telemedicine cardiovascular risk reduction in veterans.

    PubMed

    Melnyk, S Dee; Zullig, Leah L; McCant, Felicia; Danus, Susanne; Oddone, Eugene; Bastian, Lori; Olsen, Maren; Stechuchak, Karen M; Edelman, David; Rakley, Susan; Morey, Miriam; Bosworth, Hayden B

    2013-04-01

    Patients with co-occurrence of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. Comprehensive programs addressing both tailored patient self-management and pharmacotherapy are needed to address barriers to optimal cardiovascular risk reduction. We are examining a Clinical pharmacy specialist-, telephone-administered intervention, relying on home monitoring, with a goal of providing tailored medication and behavioral intervention to Veterans with CVD risk. Randomized controlled trial including patients with hypertension (blood pressure >150/100 mm Hg) or elevated low density liporotein (>130 mg/dL). Longitudinal changes in CVD risk profile and improvement in health behaviors over time will be examined. Given the national prevalence of CVD and the dismal rates of risk factor control, intensive but easily disseminated interventions are required to treat this epidemic. This study will be an important step in testing the effectiveness of a behavioral and medication intervention to improve CVD control among Veterans. Published by Mosby, Inc.

  14. Serum triglycerides and risk of cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Boullart, A C I; de Graaf, J; Stalenhoef, A F

    2012-05-01

    Dyslipidemia, especially elevated serum levels of cholesterol, is causally related to cardiovascular disease. The specific role of triglycerides has long been controversial. In this article we discuss the role of serum triglycerides in relation to the risk of cardiovascular disease. First, the (patho)physiology of triglycerides is described, including the definition and a short summary of the primary and secondary causes of hypertriglyceridemia. Furthermore, we will give an overview of the published epidemiological studies concerning hypertriglyceridemia and cardiovascular disease to support the view that triglyceride-rich lipoproteins are an independently associated risk factor. Finally, treatment strategies and treatment targets are discussed. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled Triglyceride Metabolism and Disease. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Thallium stress testing does not predict cardiovascular risk in diabetic patients with end-stage renal disease undergoing cadaveric renal transplantation

    SciTech Connect

    Holley, J.L.; Fenton, R.A.; Arthur, R.S. )

    1991-05-01

    This study assessed the usefulness of thallium stress testing as a predictor of perioperative cardiovascular risk in diabetic patients with end-stage renal disease undergoing cadaveric renal transplantation. Demographic factors influencing the exercise performance in these patients were also examined. The medical records of 189 consecutive patients with diabetic nephropathy who were evaluated for cadaveric renal transplantation were reviewed. Thallium stress testing was the initial examination of cardiovascular status in 141 patients. An adequate examination was one in which at least 70% of maximum heart rate was achieved. A thallium stress test was normal if there were no ST segment depressions on the electrocardiogram and no perfusion abnormalities on the thallium scan. Forty-four patients underwent cardiac catheterization as the initial evaluation (Group C) and four patients underwent transplantation without a formal cardiovascular evaluation (Group D). Sixty-four of the 141 patients undergoing thallium stress testing had an adequate and normal examination (Group A). The incidence of perioperative cardiac events in this group was 2%. Seventy-seven patients (Group B) had an abnormal (n = 41) or an inadequate (n = 36) thallium stress test and most (n = 61) then underwent coronary angiography. The use of beta-blockers was the only predictor of an abnormal or inadequate thallium stress test. Forty-three percent of patients with inadequate or abnormal thallium stress tests had significant coronary artery disease on cardiac catheterization. The perioperative risk of cardiac events was not different in Group A versus Groups B, C, and D combined. Survival of Group A and B patients was not different but was significantly longer than that of Group C patients.

  16. Cardiovascular risk assessment in type 2 diabetes mellitus: comparison of the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension risk prediction charts versus UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine.

    PubMed

    Herath, Herath M Meththananda; Weerarathna, Thilak Priyantha; Umesha, Dilini

    2015-01-01

    Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at higher risk of developing cardiovascular diseases, and assessment of their cardiac risk is important for preventive strategies. The Ministry of Health of Sri Lanka has recommended World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) charts for cardiac risk assessment in individuals with T2DM. However, the most suitable cardiac risk assessment tool for Sri Lankans with T2DM has not been studied. This study was designed to evaluate the performance of two cardiac risk assessments tools; WHO/ISH charts and UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine. Cardiac risk assessments were done in 2,432 patients with T2DM attending a diabetes clinic in Southern Sri Lanka using the two risk assessment tools. Validity of two assessment tools was further assessed by their ability to recognize individuals with raised low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and raised diastolic blood pressure in a cohort of newly diagnosed T2DM patients (n=332). WHO/ISH charts identified 78.4% of subjects as low cardiac risk whereas the UKPDS risk engine categorized 52.3% as low cardiac risk (P<0.001). In the risk categories of 10%-<20%, the UKPDS risk engine identified higher proportions of patients (28%) compared to WHO/ISH charts (7%). Approximately 6% of subjects were classified as low cardiac risk (<10%) by WHO/ISH when UKPDS recognized them as cardiac risk of >20%. Agreement between the two tools was poor (κ value =0.144, P<0.01). Approximately 82% of individuals categorized as low cardiac risk by WHO/ISH had higher LDL cholesterol than the therapeutic target of 100 mg/dL. There is a significant discrepancy between the two assessment tools with WHO/ISH risk chart recognizing higher proportions of patients having low cardiac risk than the UKPDS risk engine. Risk assessment by both assessment tools demonstrated poor sensitivity in identifying those with treatable levels of LDL cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure.

  17. Importance of android/gynoid fat ratio in predicting metabolic and cardiovascular disease risk in normal weight as well as overweight and obese children.

    PubMed

    Samsell, Lennie; Regier, Michael; Walton, Cheryl; Cottrell, Lesley

    2014-01-01

    Numerous studies have shown that android or truncal obesity is associated with a risk for metabolic and cardiovascular disease, yet there is evidence that gynoid fat distribution may be protective. However, these studies have focused on adults and obese children. The purpose of our study was to determine if the android/gynoid fat ratio is positively correlated with insulin resistance, HOMA2-IR, and dislipidemia in a child sample of varying body sizes. In 7-13-year-old children with BMI percentiles ranging from 0.1 to 99.6, the android/gynoid ratio was closely associated with insulin resistance and combined LDL + VLDL-cholesterol. When separated by sex, it became clear that these relationships were stronger in boys than in girls. Subjects were stratified into BMI percentile based tertiles. For boys, the android/gynoid ratio was significantly related to insulin resistance regardless of BMI tertile with and LDL + VLDL in tertiles 1 and 3. For girls, only LDL + VLDL showed any significance with android/gynoid ratio and only in tertile 2. We conclude that the android/gynoid fat ratio is closely associated with insulin resistance and LDL + VLDL-, "bad," cholesterol in normal weight boys and may provide a measurement of metabolic and cardiovascular disease risk in that population.

  18. A comparison of the Slaughter skinfold-thickness equations and BMI in predicting body fatness and cardiovascular disease risk factor levels in children1234

    PubMed Central

    Horlick, Mary; Berenson, Gerald S

    2013-01-01

    Background: Although estimation of percentage body fat with the Slaughter skinfold-thickness equations (PBFSlaughter) is widely used, the accuracy of this method has not been well studied. Objective: The objective was to determine the accuracy of the Slaughter skinfold-thickness equations. Design: We compared agreement between PBFSlaughter and estimations derived from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (PBFDXA) in 1169 children in the Pediatric Rosetta Body Composition Project and the relation to cardiovascular disease risk factors, as compared with body mass index (BMI), in 6725 children in the Bogalusa Heart Study. Results: PBFSlaughter was highly correlated (r = 0.90) with PBFDXA, but it markedly overestimated levels of PBFDXA in children with large skinfold thicknesses. In the 65 boys with a sum of skinfold thicknesses (subscapular- plus triceps-skinfold thicknesses) ≥50 mm, PBFSlaughter overestimated PBFDXA by 12 percentage points. The comparable overestimation in girls with a high skinfold sum was 6 percentage points. We also found that, after adjustment for sex and age, BMI showed slightly stronger associations with lipid, lipoprotein, insulin, and blood pressure values than did PBFSlaughter. Conclusions: These results indicate that PBFSlaughter, which was developed among a group of much thinner children and adolescents, is fairly accurate among nonobese children, but markedly overestimates the body fatness of children who have thick skinfold thicknesses. Furthermore, PBFSlaughter has no advantage over sex- and age-adjusted BMIs at identifying children who are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease based on lipid, lipoprotein, insulin, and blood pressure values. PMID:24153344

  19. Importance of Android/Gynoid Fat Ratio in Predicting Metabolic and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Normal Weight as well as Overweight and Obese Children

    PubMed Central

    Regier, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Numerous studies have shown that android or truncal obesity is associated with a risk for metabolic and cardiovascular disease, yet there is evidence that gynoid fat distribution may be protective. However, these studies have focused on adults and obese children. The purpose of our study was to determine if the android/gynoid fat ratio is positively correlated with insulin resistance, HOMA2-IR, and dislipidemia in a child sample of varying body sizes. In 7–13-year-old children with BMI percentiles ranging from 0.1 to 99.6, the android/gynoid ratio was closely associated with insulin resistance and combined LDL + VLDL-cholesterol. When separated by sex, it became clear that these relationships were stronger in boys than in girls. Subjects were stratified into BMI percentile based tertiles. For boys, the android/gynoid ratio was significantly related to insulin resistance regardless of BMI tertile with and LDL + VLDL in tertiles 1 and 3. For girls, only LDL + VLDL showed any significance with android/gynoid ratio and only in tertile 2. We conclude that the android/gynoid fat ratio is closely associated with insulin resistance and LDL + VLDL-, “bad,” cholesterol in normal weight boys and may provide a measurement of metabolic and cardiovascular disease risk in that population. PMID:25302115

  20. Associations of dietary fiber intake with long-term predicted cardiovascular disease risk and C-reactive protein levels (from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Data [2005-2010]).

    PubMed

    Ning, Hongyan; Van Horn, Linda; Shay, Christina M; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M

    2014-01-15

    Dietary fiber intake might reduce cardiovascular risk factor levels and, in turn, might lower the long-term risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). A total of 11,113 subjects, aged 20 to 79 years with no history of CVD, from the 2005 to 2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were included in the present study to examine associations of dietary fiber intake with predicted lifetime CVD risk and C-reactive protein levels. Dietary fiber intake showed a significant gradient association with the likelihood of having a low or an intermediate predicted lifetime CVD risk among young and middle-age adults. In fully adjusted multinomial logistic models, dietary fiber intake was related to a low lifetime CVD risk with an odds ratio of 2.71 (95% confidence interval 2.05 to 3.59) in the young adults and 2.13 (95% confidence interval 1.42 to 3.20) in the middle-age adults and was related to an intermediate lifetime risk of 2.65 (95% confidence interval 1.79 to 3.92) in the young and 1.98 (95% confidence interval 1.32 to 2.98) in the middle-age adults compared with a high lifetime risk. A significant inverse linear association was seen between dietary fiber intake and log-transformed C-reactive protein levels with a regression coefficient ± standard error of -0.18 ± 0.04 in the highest quartile of fiber intake compared with the lowest fiber intake. In conclusion, these data suggest that dietary fiber intake is independently associated with the predicted lifetime CVD risk, especially in young and middle-age adults. A greater amount of dietary fiber intake might be associated with lower C-reactive protein levels. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Total cardiovascular risk profile of Taiwanese vegetarians.

    PubMed

    Chen, C-W; Lin, Y-L; Lin, T-K; Lin, C-T; Chen, B-C; Lin, C-L

    2008-01-01

    Although the health benefits of vegetarian diets have been well documented among Western population, there are geographic differences of vegetarian diets and the health benefits of the Taiwanese vegetarian diet have not been studied extensively. In addition to conventional risk factors, homocysteine and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels have been found to predict first atherothrombotic events. We undertook this study to examine the total risk profile of Taiwanese vegetarians. A total of 198 healthy subjects (99 vegetarians and 99 omnivores) were recruited. Fasting blood samples were analyzed for glucose, cholesterol, triglyceride, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), white blood cell count, hs-CRP and homocysteine. There was no significant difference in age, body mass index, blood glucose, white blood cell count, triglyceride and HDL-C between the two groups. The vegetarian group had significantly more females (65.7 vs 46.5%); lower body weight (58.66+/-11.13 vs 62.88+/-12.24 kg); shorter height (159.14+/-7.88 vs 162.53 +/-8.14 cm); lower total cholesterol (184.74+/-33.23 vs 202.01+/-41.05 mg/dl); and lower LDL-C (119.63+/-31.59 vs 135.89+/-39.50 mg/dl). Hs-CRP was significantly lower (0.14+/-0.23 vs 0.23+/-0.44 mg/dl, P=0.025), whereas homocysteine was significantly higher (10.97+/-6.69 vs 8.44+/-2.50 micromol/l, P=0.001) in vegetarians than omnivores. Taiwanese vegetarians have lower total cholesterol, LDL-C and hs-CRP levels, and higher homocysteine levels than omnivores. Owing to different predictive value of each risk factor, the Taiwanese vegetarians had a better cardiovascular risk profile than omnivores. Whether the Taiwanese vegetarian diet should be supplemented with vitamin B(12) to lower serum homocysteine level remains to be addressed.

  2. Seasonal variations of selected cardiovascular risk factors.

    PubMed

    Kelly, Gregory S

    2005-12-01

    This article reviews research on selected biomarkers of cardiovascular risk - cholesterol and other lipids, C-reactive protein (CRP), fibrinogen, homocysteine - in the attempt to determine the existence of a predictable seasonal chronobiological pattern of variation. Studies dating as far back as the 1930s have reported seasonal variations in cholesterol levels. Statistically significant seasonal changes in lipid levels have been found in individuals irrespective of the country where the research has been conducted, and irrespective of the age, sex, ethnicity, and baseline lipid levels of the study subjects. While not all studies have been in complete agreement on either the amplitude (degree of seasonal change) or month/s of highest lipid levels, a strong winter/summer difference has been found in most studies. Existing evidence for an independent effect of season in variation of CRP is weak. Studies have consistently reported significant seasonal variations in fibrinogen levels. While other biological factors clearly interact to affect fibrinogen variability, seasonality appears to be an independent source of variability. Evidence from several studies points to a lack of seasonal variability in homocysteine levels. Although seasonal variability is just one source of periodicity influencing biological function and assessments in clinical practice, for some biomarkers, including lipids and fibrinogen, it is a source of variability that warrants consideration prior to a decision to treat and in assessing response to interventions.

  3. Cardiovascular Risk Reduction in Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murray, David M.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    The paper presents a community model for reducing the risk of coronary heart disease in children and youth. The model addresses the individual, the family, social groups, and the larger social and physical environments. Exemplary programs are described and recommendations are made for additional research and program development. (Author/DB)

  4. Predictive value of beat-to-beat QT variability index across the continuum of left ventricular dysfunction: competing risks of noncardiac or cardiovascular death and sudden or nonsudden cardiac death.

    PubMed

    Tereshchenko, Larisa G; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; McNitt, Scott; Vazquez, Rafael; Bayes-Genis, Antoni; Han, Lichy; Sur, Sanjoli; Couderc, Jean-Philippe; Berger, Ronald D; de Luna, Antoni Bayes; Zareba, Wojciech

    2012-08-01

    The goal of the present study was to determine the predictive value of beat-to-beat QT variability in heart failure patients across the continuum of left ventricular dysfunction. Beat-to-beat QT variability index (QTVI), log-transformed heart rate variance, normalized QT variance, and coherence between heart rate variability and QT variability have been measured at rest during sinus rhythm in 533 participants of the Muerte Subita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca heart failure study (mean age, 63.1±11.7; men, 70.6%; left ventricular ejection fraction >35% in 254 [48%]) and in 181 healthy participants from the Intercity Digital Electrocardiogram Alliance database. During a median of 3.7 years of follow-up, 116 patients died, 52 from sudden cardiac death (SCD). In multivariate competing risk analyses, the highest QTVI quartile was associated with cardiovascular death (subhazard ratio, 1.67 [95% CI, 1.14-2.47]; P=0.009) and, in particular, with non-SCD (subhazard ratio, 2.91 [1.69-5.01]; P<0.001). Elevated QTVI separated 97.5% of healthy individuals from subjects at risk for cardiovascular (subhazard ratio, 1.57 [1.04-2.35]; P=0.031) and non-SCD in multivariate competing risk model (subhazard ratio, 2.58 [1.13-3.78]; P=0.001). No interaction between QTVI and left ventricular ejection fraction was found. QTVI predicted neither noncardiac death (P=0.546) nor SCD (P=0.945). Decreased heart rate variability rather than increased QT variability was the reason for increased QTVI in the present study. Increased QTVI because of depressed heart rate variability predicts cardiovascular mortality and non-SCD but neither SCD nor extracardiac mortality in heart failure across the continuum of left ventricular dysfunction. Abnormally augmented QTVI separates 97.5% of healthy individuals from heart failure patients at risk.

  5. Predictive Value of Beat-to-Beat QT Variability Index across the Continuum of Left Ventricular Dysfunction: Competing Risks of Non-cardiac or Cardiovascular Death, and Sudden or Non-Sudden Cardiac Death

    PubMed Central

    Tereshchenko, Larisa G.; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; McNitt, Scott; Vazquez, Rafael; Bayes-Genis, Antoni; Han, Lichy; Sur, Sanjoli; Couderc, Jean-Philippe; Berger, Ronald D.; de Luna, Antoni Bayes; Zareba, Wojciech

    2012-01-01

    Background The goal of this study was to determine the predictive value of beat-to-beat QT variability in heart failure (HF) patients across the continuum of left ventricular dysfunction. Methods and Results Beat-to-beat QT variability index (QTVI), heart rate variance (LogHRV), normalized QT variance (QTVN), and coherence between heart rate variability and QT variability have been measured at rest during sinus rhythm in 533 participants of the Muerte Subita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca (MUSIC) HF study (mean age 63.1±11.7; males 70.6%; LVEF >35% in 254 [48%]) and in 181 healthy participants from the Intercity Digital Electrocardiogram Alliance (IDEAL) database. During a median of 3.7 years of follow-up, 116 patients died, 52 from sudden cardiac death (SCD). In multivariate competing risk analyses, the highest QTVI quartile was associated with cardiovascular death [hazard ratio (HR) 1.67(95%CI 1.14-2.47), P=0.009] and in particular with non-sudden cardiac death [HR 2.91(1.69-5.01), P<0.001]. Elevated QTVI separated 97.5% of healthy individuals from subjects at risk for cardiovascular [HR 1.57(1.04-2.35), P=0.031], and non-sudden cardiac death in multivariate competing risk model [HR 2.58(1.13-3.78), P=0.001]. No interaction between QTVI and LVEF was found. QTVI predicted neither non-cardiac death (P=0.546) nor SCD (P=0.945). Decreased heart rate variability (HRV) rather than increased QT variability was the reason for increased QTVI in this study. Conclusions Increased QTVI due to depressed HRV predicts cardiovascular mortality and non-sudden cardiac death, but neither SCD nor excracardiac mortality in HF across the continuum of left ventricular dysfunction. Abnormally augmented QTVI separates 97.5% of healthy individuals from HF patients at risk. PMID:22730411

  6. Prediction of cardiovascular events with aortic stiffness in patients with erectile dysfunction.

    PubMed

    Vlachopoulos, Charalambos; Ioakeimidis, Nikolaos; Aznaouridis, Konstantinos; Terentes-Printzios, Dimitrios; Rokkas, Konstantinos; Aggelis, Athanasios; Panagiotakos, Dimosthenis; Stefanadis, Christodoulos

    2014-09-01

    Erectile dysfunction confers an independent risk for cardiovascular events and total mortality. Aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) is an important predictor of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. We investigated whether PWV predicts major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with erectile dysfunction beyond traditional risk factors. MACEs in relation to PWV were analyzed with proportional hazards models in 344 patients (mean age, 56 years) without established cardiovascular disease. During a mean follow-up of 4.7 years (range, 1-8.5 years), 24 of 344 participants (7.0%) experienced a MACE. Subjects in the highest PWV tertile (>8.8 m/s) had a 4-fold higher risk of MACEs compared with those in the lowest PWV tertile (<7.6 m/s; adjusted hazard ratio, 3.97; P=0.035). A PWV value of 7.81 m/s was associated with a negative predictive value (ability to rule out MACE) of 98.1%. Addition of PWV to standard risk factor model yielded correct patient reclassification to higher or lower risk category by 27.6% (P=0.0332) in the whole cohort. Our results show that higher aortic stiffness is associated with increased risk for a MACE in patients with erectile dysfunction without known cardiovascular disease. Aortic PWV improves risk prediction when added to standard risk factors and may represent a valuable biomarker of prediction of cardiovascular disease risk in these patients.

  7. Childhood cardiovascular risk factors in South Asians: A cause of concern for adult cardiovascular disease epidemic

    PubMed Central

    Prasad, Duggirala Sivaram; Kabir, Zubair; Dash, Ashok Kumar; Das, Bhagabati Charan

    2011-01-01

    Cardiovascular risk factors in children are increasing at an alarming rate in the western world. However, there is limited information regarding these in the South Asian children. This review attempts at summarizing such evidence. South Asians are remarkable for the earlier onset of adult cardiovascular disease (CVD) by almost a decade compared to the Caucasians. We identified published literature, mainly on PubMed, Embase and Cochrane library using specific search terms such as lipid abnormalities, high blood pressure, hyperglycemia, tobacco use, obesity, physical inactivity, and unhealthy dietary practices. Atherosclerotic CVD processes begin early in childhood and are influenced over the life course by genetic and potentially modifiable risk factors and environmental exposure. 80% of adult CVD burden will fall on the developing nations by 2020. The concept of primordial prevention is fast emerging as a necessary prevention tool to curb adult CVD epidemic. Established guidelines and proven preventive strategies on cardiovascular health exist; however, are always implemented half-heartedly. Composite screening and prediction tools for adults can be adapted and validated in children tailored to South Asian population. South Asian children could be at a greater risk of developing cardiovascular risk factors at an earlier stage, thus, timely interventions are imperative. PMID:21976880

  8. Cardiovascular Risk in Women With PCOS

    PubMed Central

    Scicchitano, Pietro; Dentamaro, Ilaria; Carbonara, Rosa; Bulzis, Gabriella; Dachille, Annamaria; Caputo, Paola; Riccardi, Roberta; Locorotondo, Manuela; Mandurino, Cosimo; Matteo Ciccone, Marco

    2012-01-01

    Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), or Stein-Leventhal syndrome, is a common endocrine disorder defined by two of the three following features: i) oligoovulation or anovulation, ii) clinical and/or biochemical signs of hyperandrogenism, or iii) polycystic ovaries, once the related endocrinological and gynaecological disorders have been excluded. PCOS does not exclusively involve the reproductive apparatus , it has a complex number of systemic relevancy symptoms. It leads to Metabolic Syndrome, with severe consequences on the cardiovascular apparatus. Many clinical studies have underlined the connection between PCOS and the cardiovascular risk profile of such female patients, due to a lipid/glucose altered metabolism, hypertension, systemic inflammatory condition (assessable by markers such as VES, TNF-alfa, citokines and C-reactive protein (hsPCR) levels), and vascular injuries. Considering the early onset of the disease, PCOS could be considered as a real cardiovascular risk factor which affects the quality of life seriously. The current review aimed to point out the main connections between PCOS and cardiovascular risk factors according to the latest findings coming from literature data analysis, and try to depict the great influences that such a common disease can have on the patients’ health integrity. PMID:23843832

  9. Controlling risk factors in cardiovascular diseases.

    PubMed

    Tuomilehto, J; Puska, P; Salonen, J; Nissinen, A

    1980-10-01

    In response to community demands to do something about the highest rates of cardiovascular diseases in the world that were found in the country of North Karelia, Finland, a comprehensive community control programme was set up in 1972. The main objective was to reduce the high rates by reducing level of smoking, serum cholesterol and blood pressure. The success of the programme was evaluated by examining independent representative population samples in 1972 and in 1977 in North Karelia and a matched control county. A decrease in the individual risk factors was found among the population aged 25-29 at the outset. This reduction was mainly based on favourable changes in lifestyle that took place through the whole community. In low as well as in high socioeconomic groups risk factor reductions occurred. At the same time morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular diseases fell in North Karelia. The intensified health education was not accompanied by adverse emotional or psychosomatic reactions that could be measured. Since there are results from a series of experimental and controlled studies on success of risk factor reduction, this evidence should be used in development and implementation of prevention programmes for cardiovascular diseases. Primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases today requires efficient programmes because they are forming the leading cause of death in majority of the countries where reliable mortality statistics are available.

  10. Water chemistry and cardiovascular disease risk

    SciTech Connect

    Watson, A.P.; Zeighami, E.A.

    1985-01-01

    The evidence linking cardiovascular disease risk and water quality parameters was weighed and analyzed to identify major gaps in understanding reasons for the regional differences in cardiovascular disease mortality in the United States. Epidemiologic studies evaluating occupational and public health exposure to nitrates, carbon monoxide, carbon disulfide, fibrogenic dusts, heavy metals and trace elements, chlorides, and hydro- and fluorocarbons were analyzed. Intake of cholesterol, calcium, and magnesium from food items, cooking water enhancement, and drinking water were also appraised. Based on the current state of knowledge, it is our judgment that the drinking water characteristics of highest priority from the standpoint of cardiovascular disease risks are calcium/magnesium content and chlorine treatment. The potential importance of cadmium, lead, nitrate(s), and chloride/sodium concentrations also needs to be considered. We present working hypotheses to evaluate the role(s) of these parameters and a discussion of variables that should be considered in any study design addressing the association between cardiovascular disease risk and water quality. Important variables are sample size, biological endpoint events (mortality, incidence, clinical determination), population characteristics, drinking water parameters, and dietary intake estimates. 207 references, 6 figures, 17 tables.

  11. Changes in Physical Fitness Predict Improvements in Modifiable Cardiovascular Risk Factors Independently of Body Weight Loss in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Participating in the Italian Diabetes and Exercise Study (IDES)

    PubMed Central

    Balducci, Stefano; Zanuso, Silvano; Cardelli, Patrizia; Salvi, Laura; Mazzitelli, Giulia; Bazuro, Alessandra; Iacobini, Carla; Nicolucci, Antonio; Pugliese, Giuseppe

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Physical fitness is inversely related to mortality in the general population and in subjects with type 2 diabetes. Here, we present data concerning the relationship between changes in physical fitness and modifiable cardiovascular risk factors in subjects with type 2 diabetes from the Italian Diabetes and Exercise Study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Sedentary patients with type 2 diabetes (n = 606) were enrolled in 22 outpatient diabetes clinics and randomized to twice-a-week supervised aerobic and resistance training plus exercise counseling versus counseling alone for 12 months. Baseline to end-of-study changes in cardiorespiratory fitness, strength, and flexibility, as assessed by Vo2max estimation, a 5–8 maximal repetition test, and a hip/trunk flexibility test, respectively, were calculated in the whole cohort, and multiple regression analyses were applied to assess the relationship with cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS Changes in Vo2max, upper and lower body strength, and flexibility were significantly associated with the variation in the volume of physical activity, HbA1c, BMI, waist circumference, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), coronary heart disease (CHD) risk score, and inversely, HDL cholesterol. Changes in fitness predicted improvements in HbA1c, waist circumference, HDL cholesterol, hs-CRP, and CHD risk score, independent of study arm, BMI, and in case of strength, also waist circumference. CONCLUSIONS Physical activity/exercise-induced increases in fitness, particularly muscular, predict improvements in cardiovascular risk factors in subjects with type 2 diabetes independently of weight loss, thus indicating the need for targeting fitness in these individuals, particularly in subjects who struggle to lose weight. PMID:22399699

  12. Perceptions of risk: understanding cardiovascular disease

    PubMed Central

    Webster, Ruth; Heeley, Emma

    2010-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is still the leading cause of death and disability worldwide despite the availability of well-established and effective preventive options. Accurate perception of a patient’s risk by both the patient and the doctors is important as this is one of the components that determine health-related behavior. Doctors tend to not use cardiovascular (CV) risk calculators and underestimate the absolute CV risk of their patients. Patients show optimistic bias when considering their own risk and consistently underestimate it. Poor patient health literacy and numeracy must be considered when thinking about this problem. Patients must possess a reasonably high level of understanding of numerical processes when doctors discuss risk, a level that is not possessed by large numbers of the population. In order to overcome this barrier, doctors need to utilize various tools including the appropriate use of visual aids to accurately communicate risk with their patients. Any intervention has been shown to be better than nothing in improving health understanding. The simple process of repeatedly conveying risk information to a patient has been shown to improve accuracy of risk perception. Doctors need to take responsibility for the accurate assessment and effective communication of CV risk in their patients in order to improve patient uptake of cardioprotective lifestyle choices and preventive medications. PMID:22312218

  13. Hardware-software approach for neonatal cardiovascular risk estimation.

    PubMed

    Hermida, R C; Ayala, D E; Fernández, J R; Fraga, J M

    1994-01-01

    Genetic risk is a primary contributing factor to the predisposition of a newborn child to elevated blood pressure later in life. To determine whether there is a correlation between potential genetic risk as established by family history and measured physiologic variables in the neonate, the systolic and diastolic blood pressures and heart rates of 150 newborn babies were automatically monitored at about 30-minute intervals for 48 hours with a Nippon Colin device, starting early after birth. Circadian parameters (obtained by the linear least-squares fit of a 24-hour cosine curve to each individual series) and descriptive statistics for the three circulatory variables were used in a multiple-regression analysis to compute a linear prediction function for a neonatal cardiovascular risk score. This score was obtained for each neonate on the basis of the presence or absence of overt cardiovascular disease, elevated blood pressure, or obesity across two generations, those of the newborn's parents and grandparents. Results from multiple regression indicate that the best model for prediction of the risk score includes the circadian amplitudes of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, the circadian range of heart rate, and the 90% range and standard deviation of diastolic blood pressure. The multiple correlation coefficient between the predicted and the computed risk scales is 0.666, a value that, although statistically significant (p < 0.001), is still low for a generalized practical use of the model in predicting risk.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  14. [Cardiovascular risk factor prevalence in university students].

    PubMed

    García-Gulfo, María H; García-Zea, Jerson A

    2012-10-01

    Determining cardiovascular risk factor prevalence in university students from Medellin. A descriptive study of 112 students determined their lipid profile and a survey was conducted to assess their life-style and family history. There results were analyzed by gender using Chi² test and simple binary logistic regression. 82.1 % of the sample was female. A modifiable risk factor was found for at least 99.1 % of the study population: sedentary life-style (79.5 %), smoking (17 %), alcohol consumption (75.0 %), atherogenic diet (78.6 %), hypertension (1.8 %), some form of dyslipidemia (48.3 % BMI >25 (4.5 %)) and stress (86.7 %). At least one non-modifiable risk factor was identified in 77.7 % of the students. New intervention strategies are needed given the significant percentage of the target population ± 19 mean age having cardiovascular disease risk factors and young people must be encouraged to develop healthy life-styles to reduce cardiovascular risk factor prevalence.

  15. [Cardiovascular risk factors in Chilean university students].

    PubMed

    Chiang-Salgado, M T; Casanueva-Escobar, V; Cid-Cea, X; González-Rubilar, U; Olate-Mellado, P; Nickel-Paredes, F; Revello-Chiang, L

    1999-01-01

    To study the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in asymptomatic university students of both sexes, aged 18 to 25 years. Serum lipid levels were measured in a subsample of 293 subjects, using a Hitachi 717 chemical analyzer. Obesity was classified using body mass index (BMI) measurements. A self-applied questionnaire was used to collect data on sedentary life style, family history of cardiovascular disease and cigarette smoking. Statistical associations of lipid levels with lipidic and non-lipidic risk factors were assessed using Pearson's chi-square test and multiple regression. We found lipid risk levels in 29.2% for total cholesterol (CT), 16.2% for low-density lipoproteins (C-LDL) and 5% for high-density lipoproteins (C-HDL). The main non-lipidic factors were smoking (46.1%) and sedentarism (60.8%). Obesity, hypertension and parental history of myocardial infarction were present in 1.9%, 4.6% and 11%, respectively. We observed an association of a lipid risk profile with obesity, cigarette smoking and family history. The results show that sedentarism and smoking are associated with a lipid risk profile. These results call for the need to develop appropriate behavior strategies for the successful prevention of cardiovascular disease.

  16. Gene polymorphisms as risk factors for predicting the cardiovascular manifestations in Marfan syndrome. Role of folic acid metabolism enzyme gene polymorphisms in Marfan syndrome.

    PubMed

    Benke, Kálmán; Ágg, Bence; Mátyás, Gábor; Szokolai, Viola; Harsányi, Gergely; Szilveszter, Bálint; Odler, Balázs; Pólos, Miklós; Maurovich-Horvat, Pál; Radovits, Tamás; Merkely, Béla; Nagy, Zsolt B; Szabolcs, Zoltán

    2015-10-01

    Folic acid metabolism enzyme polymorphisms are believed to be responsible for the elevation of homocysteine (HCY) concentration in the blood plasma, correlating with the pathogenesis of aortic aneurysms and aortic dissection. We studied 71 Marfan patients divided into groups based on the severity of cardiovascular involvement: no intervention required (n=27, Group A); mild involvement requiring intervention (n=17, Group B); severe involvement (n=27, Group C) subdivided into aortic dilatation (n=14, Group C1) and aortic dissection (n=13, Group C2), as well as 117 control subjects. We evaluated HCY, folate, vitamin B12 and the polymorphisms of methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR;c.665C>T and c.1286A>C), methionine synthase (MTR;c.2756A>G) and methionine synthase reductase (MTRR;c.66A>G). Multiple comparisons showed significantly higher levels of HCY in Group C2 compared to Groups A, B, C1 and control group (p<0.0001, p<0.0001, p=0.001 and p=0.003, respectively). Folate was lower in Group C2 than in Groups A, B, C1 and control subjects (p<0.0001, p=0.02, p<0.0001 and p<0.0001, respectively). Group C2 had the highest prevalence of homozygotes for all four gene polymorphisms. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that HCY plasma level was an independent risk factor for severe cardiovascular involvement (Group C; odds ratio [OR] 1.85, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28-2.67, p=0.001) as well as for aortic dissection (Group C2; OR 2.49, 95%CI 1.30-4.78, p=0.006). In conclusion, severe cardiovascular involvement in Marfan patients, and especially aortic dissection, is associated with higher HCY plasma levels and prevalence of homozygous genotypes of folic acid metabolism enzymes than mild or no cardiovascular involvement. These results suggest that impaired folic acid metabolism has an important role in the development and remodelling of the extracellular matrix of the aorta.

  17. Cardiovascular risk in Mozambique: who should be treated for hypertension?

    PubMed Central

    Damasceno, Albertino; Padrão, Patricia; Silva-Matos, Carla; Prista, António; Azevedo, Ana; Lunet, Nuno

    2014-01-01

    Aim To estimate the proportion of Mozambicans eligible for pharmacological treatment for hypertension, according to single risk factor and total cardiovascular risk approaches. Methods A representative sample of Mozambicans aged 40–64 years (n = 1116) was evaluated according to the WHO STEPwise Approach to Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance (STEPS). We measured blood pressure (BP) and 12-h fasting blood glucose levels and collected data on sociodemographic characteristics, smoking, and use of antidiabetic and antihypertensive drugs. We estimated the 10-year risk of a fatal or nonfatal major cardiovascular event (WHO/lnternational Society of Hypertension risk prediction charts), and computed the proportion of untreated participants eligible for pharmacological treatment for hypertension, according to BP values alone and accounting also for the total cardiovascular risk (WHO guidelines for assessment and management of cardiovascular diseases). Results Among the Mozambicans aged 40–64 years and not taking antihypertensive drugs, less than 4% were classified as having cardiovascular risk at least 20% whereas the prevalence of SBP/DBP at least 140/90 mmHg was nearly 40%. A total of 19.8% of 40–64-year-olds would be eligible for pharmacological treatment of hypertension according to the WHO guidelines, all of whom had SBP/DBP at least 160/100 mmHg. Conclusion Among the Mozambicans aged 40–64 years not taking antihypertensive drugs and having SBP/DBP at least 140/90 mmHg, only half were eligible for pharmacological treatment according to the WHO guidelines. Taking the latter into account, when defining strategies to control hypertension at a population level, may allow a more efficient use of the scarce resources available in developing settings. PMID:24220589

  18. A comparison of the Slaughter skinfold-thickness equations and BMI in predicting body fatness and cardiovascular disease risk factor levels in children.

    PubMed

    Freedman, David S; Horlick, Mary; Berenson, Gerald S

    2013-12-01

    Although estimation of percentage body fat with the Slaughter skinfold-thickness equations (PBF(Slaughter)) is widely used, the accuracy of this method has not been well studied. The objective was to determine the accuracy of the Slaughter skinfold-thickness equations. We compared agreement between PBF(Slaughter) and estimations derived from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (PBF(DXA)) in 1169 children in the Pediatric Rosetta Body Composition Project and the relation to cardiovascular disease risk factors, as compared with body mass index (BMI), in 6725 children in the Bogalusa Heart Study. PBF(Slaughter) was highly correlated (r = 0.90) with PBF(DXA), but it markedly overestimated levels of PBF(DXA) in children with large skinfold thicknesses. In the 65 boys with a sum of skinfold thicknesses (subscapular- plus triceps-skinfold thicknesses) ≥ 50 mm, PBF(Slaughter) overestimated PBF(DXA) by 12 percentage points. The comparable overestimation in girls with a high skinfold sum was 6 percentage points. We also found that, after adjustment for sex and age, BMI showed slightly stronger associations with lipid, lipoprotein, insulin, and blood pressure values than did PBF(Slaughter). These results indicate that PBF(Slaughter), which was developed among a group of much thinner children and adolescents, is fairly accurate among nonobese children, but markedly overestimates the body fatness of children who have thick skinfold thicknesses. Furthermore, PBF(Slaughter) has no advantage over sex- and age-adjusted BMIs at identifying children who are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease based on lipid, lipoprotein, insulin, and blood pressure values.

  19. Central autonomic network mediates cardiovascular responses to acute inflammation: Relevance to increased cardiovascular risk in depression?

    PubMed Central

    Harrison, Neil A.; Cooper, Ella; Voon, Valerie; Miles, Ken; Critchley, Hugo D.

    2013-01-01

    Inflammation is a risk factor for both depression and cardiovascular disease. Depressed mood is also a cardiovascular risk factor. To date, research into mechanisms through which inflammation impacts cardiovascular health rarely takes into account central effects on autonomic cardiovascular control, instead emphasizing direct effects of peripheral inflammatory responses on endothelial reactivity and myocardial function. However, brain responses to inflammation engage neural systems for motivational and homeostatic control and are expressed through depressed mood state and changes in autonomic cardiovascular regulation. Here we combined an inflammatory challenge, known to evoke an acute reduction in mood, with neuroimaging to identify the functional brain substrates underlying potentially detrimental changes in autonomic cardiovascular control. We first demonstrated that alterations in the balance of low to high frequency (LF/HF) changes in heart rate variability (a measure of baroreflex sensitivity) could account for some of the inflammation-evoked changes in diastolic blood pressure, indicating a central (rather than solely local endothelial) origin. Accompanying alterations in regional brain metabolism (measured using 18FDG-PET) were analysed to localise central mechanisms of inflammation-induced changes in cardiovascular state: three discrete regions previously implicated in stressor-evoked blood pressure reactivity, the dorsal anterior and posterior cingulate and pons, strongly mediated the relationship between inflammation and blood pressure. Moreover, activity changes within each region predicted the inflammation-induced shift in LF/HF balance. These data are consistent with a centrally-driven component originating within brain areas supporting stressor evoked blood pressure reactivity. Together our findings highlight mechanisms binding psychological and physiological well-being and their perturbation by peripheral inflammation. PMID:23416033

  20. Preeclampsia: exposing future cardiovascular risk in mothers and their children.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Cindy M

    2007-01-01

    There is an increased risk for future cardiovascular disease in women who have had preeclampsia. In infants born to mothers with preeclampsia, there is growing evidence of increased risk for both cardiovascular disease and preeclampsia. Epidemiologic and experimental data provide a strong link between intrauterine exposure to preeclampsia and subsequent risk for the development of cardiovascular disease in women.

  1. Exercise protects the cardiovascular system: effects beyond traditional risk factors.

    PubMed

    Joyner, Michael J; Green, Daniel J

    2009-12-01

    In humans, exercise training and moderate to high levels of physical activity are protective against cardiovascular disease. In fact they are 40% more protective than predicted based on the changes in traditional risk factors (blood lipids, hypertension, diabetes etc.) that they cause. In this review, we highlight the positive effects of exercise on endothelial function and the autonomic nervous system. We also ask if these effects alone, or in combination, might explain the protective effects of exercise against cardiovascular disease that appear to be independent of traditional risk factor modification. Our goal is to use selected data from our own work and that of others to stimulate debate on the nature and cause of the 'risk factor gap' associated with exercise and physical activity.

  2. Excess Cardiovascular Risk Burden in Jamaican Women Does Not Influence Predicted 10-Year CVD Risk Profiles of Jamaica Adults: An Analysis of the 2007/08 Jamaica Health and Lifestyle Survey.

    PubMed

    Tulloch-Reid, Marshall K; Younger, Novie O; Ferguson, Trevor S; Francis, Damian K; Abdulkadri, Abdullahi O; Gordon-Strachan, Georgiana M; McFarlane, Shelly R; Cunningham-Myrie, Colette A; Wilks, Rainford J; Anderson, Simon G

    2013-01-01

    Black Caribbean women have a higher burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors than their male counterparts. Whether this results in a difference in incident cardiovascular events is unknown. The aim of this study was to estimate the 10 year World Health Organization/International Society for Hypertension (WHO/ISH) CVD risk score for Jamaica and explore the effect of sex as well as obesity, physical activity and socioeconomic status on these estimates. Data from 40-74 year old participants in the 2007/08 Jamaica Health and Lifestyle Survey were used. Trained interviewers administered questionnaires and measured anthropometrics, blood pressure, fasting glucose and cholesterol. Education and occupation were used to assess socioeconomic status. The Americas B tables were used to estimate the WHO/ISH 10 year CVD risk scores for the population. Weighted prevalence estimates were calculated. Data from 1,432 (450 men, 982 women) participants were analysed, after excluding those with self-reported heart attack and stroke. The women had a higher prevalence of diabetes (19%W;12%M), hypertension (49%W;47%M), hypercholesterolemia (25%W;11%M), obesity (46%W;15%M) and physical inactivity (59%W;29%M). More men smoked (6%W;31%M). There was good agreement between the 10-year cardiovascular risk estimates whether or not cholesterol measurements were utilized for calculation (kappa -0.61). While 90% had a 10 year WHO/ISH CVD risk of less than 10%, approximately 2% of the population or 14,000 persons had a 10 year WHO/ISH CVD risk of ≥30%. As expected CVD risk increased with age but there was no sex difference in CVD risk distribution despite women having a greater risk factor burden. Women with low socioeconomic status had the most adverse CVD risk profile. Despite women having a higher prevalence of CVD risk factors there was no sex difference in 10-year WHO/ISH CVD risk in Jamaican adults.

  3. Understanding cardiovascular risk in hemophilia: A step towards prevention and management.

    PubMed

    Sousos, Nikolaos; Gavriilaki, Eleni; Vakalopoulou, Sofia; Garipidou, Vasileia

    2016-04-01

    Advances in hemophilia care have led to increased life expectancy and new challenges in the management of the aging hemophilia population, including cardiovascular risk. Despite the deep knowledge into cardiovascular disease in terms of pathophysiology, risk prediction, prevention, early detection and management gained over the last decades, studies in hemophiliacs are scarce and mainly descriptive. As a growing amount of evidence points towards a similar or increased prevalence of traditional cardiovascular risk factors in hemophilia compared to the general population, the role of non-traditional, disease-related and treatment-related cardiovascular risk factors remains under investigation. Better understanding of cardiovascular risk in hemophilia is mandatory for proper cardiovascular risk prevention and management. Therefore, this review aims to summarize current knowledge on cardiovascular risk in hemophilia patients focusing on a) cardiovascular risk factors (traditional, non-traditional, disease-related and treatment-related), b) cardiovascular morbidity and mortality and c) cardiovascular prevention and management. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Psychophysiological risk markers of cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Hamer, Mark; Malan, Leone

    2010-09-01

    Acute psychophysiological stress testing, involving measurement of cardiovascular and biological responses to laboratory-induced mental stress, is an important tool to investigate mechanisms that might account for the association between psychosocial stress and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Accumulating evidence has demonstrated associations of disturbed psychophysiological responses with sub-clinical measures of atherosclerosis, hypertension, and metabolic risk. The complex pattern of stress responding is influenced by individual differences, such as coping style, race and ethnicity, genetics, background stress, and lifestyle habits, which should be taken into account when interpreting results. For example, an unique interplay between cardiac and vascular responses in black Africans and African Americans is thought to contribute towards a heightened risk of hypertension in this group. Whether or not psychophysiological risk markers provide prognostic information over and above that of established risk markers is not clear. In summary, controlled trials that examine if the modification of psychophysiological responses through lifestyle and psychosocial interventions can reduce the risk of CVD outcomes are needed to establish causality. Further work is also required that examines the associations of ambulatory responses to real life stress in relation to risk of CVD.

  5. Modifying women's risk for cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    McCauley, Kathleen M

    2007-01-01

    To present current recommendations for cardiovascular disease risk reduction in women. Medline databases were searched from 1990 to 2006 using keywords women and cardiovascular risk, hypertension, cholesterol, and hormone replacement therapy, as well as Web sites from scientific associations such as the American Heart Association, American College of Cardiology, Agency for Health Research and Quality, and the Centers for Disease Control for relevant scientific statements and guidelines. Randomized controlled trials, particularly those that have influenced current practice recommendations, scientific statements, and clinical practice guidelines were selected. Factors contributing to women's particular risk and current practice recommendations. Current research has clarified the importance of regular exercise (at least 30 minutes/day most days of the week); abstinence from smoking; a diet focused on whole grains, fruits, vegetables, and low-fat protein sources; and maintenance of normal weight. This lifestyle combined with a partnership with a health care provider to maintain a normal blood pressure (115/75 mm Hg) and optimal lipoproteins through pharmacotherapy when indicated can prevent 82% of cardiovascular disease events in women.

  6. Cost effectiveness of ramipril treatment for cardiovascular risk reduction

    PubMed Central

    Malik, I; Bhatia, V; Kooner, J

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—To assess the cost effectiveness of ramipril treatment in patients at low, medium, and high risk of cardiovascular death.
DESIGN—Population based cost effectiveness analysis from the perspective of the health care provider in the UK. Effectiveness was modelled using data from the HOPE (heart outcome prevention evaluation) trial. The life table method was used to predict mortality in a medium risk cohort, as in the HOPE trial (2.44% annual mortality), and in low and high risk groups (1% and 4.5% annual mortality, respectively).
SETTING—UK population using 1998 government actuary department data.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE—Cost per life year gained at five years and lifetime treatment with ramipril.
RESULTS—Cost effectiveness was £36 600, £13 600, and £4000 per life year gained at five years and £5300, £1900, and £100 per life year gained at 20 years (lifetime treatment) in low, medium, and high risk groups, respectively. Cost effectiveness at 20 years remained well below that of haemodialysis (£25 000 per life year gained) over a range of potential drug costs and savings. Treatment of the HOPE population would cost the UK National Health Service (NHS) an additional £360 million but would prevent 12 000 deaths per annum.
CONCLUSIONS—Ramipril is cost effective treatment for cardiovascular risk reduction in patients at medium, high, and low pretreatment risk, with a cost effectiveness comparable with the use of statins. Implementation of ramipril treatment in a medium risk population would result in a major reduction in cardiovascular deaths but would increase annual NHS spending by £360 million.


Keywords: angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor; cardiovascular risk; cost effectiveness; ramipril PMID:11303006

  7. Managing cardiovascular risk in patients with inflammatory arthritis: practical considerations

    PubMed Central

    Tournadre, Anne; Mathieu, Sylvain; Soubrier, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Patients with inflammatory arthritis, such as rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, or ankylosing spondylitis, have higher rates of cardiovascular mortality. While the increased cardiovascular risk is only explained to some extent, a lot of research is currently conducted to improve our understanding of its pathogenesis, risk stratification, and optimal cardiovascular risk management. This review sought to report epidemiological data pertaining to the cardiovascular disease burden in patients with inflammatory arthritis, underlying mechanisms accounting for excessive cardiovascular risk, along with recommendations regarding risk assessment and management in this patient population. PMID:27721904

  8. Epigenetic Changes in Diabetes and Cardiovascular Risk

    PubMed Central

    Keating, Samuel T; Plutzky, Jorge; El-Osta, Assam

    2016-01-01

    Cardiovascular complications remain the leading causes of morbidity and premature mortality in patients with diabetes. Studies in humans and preclinical models demonstrate lasting gene expression changes in the vasculopathies initiated by previous exposure to high glucose concentrations and the associated overproduction of reactive oxygen species. The molecular signatures of chromatin architectures that sensitize the genome to these and other cardiometabolic risk factors of the diabetic milieu are increasingly implicated in the biologic memory underlying cardiovascular complications and now widely considered as promising therapeutic targets. Atherosclerosis is a complex heterocellular disease where the contributing cell types possess distinct epigenomes shaping diverse gene expression. While the extent that pathological chromatin changes can be manipulated in human cardiovascular disease remains to be established, the clinical applicability of epigenetic interventions will be greatly advanced by a deeper understanding of the cell type-specific roles played by writers, erasers, and readers of chromatin modifications in the diabetic vasculature. This review details a current perspective of epigenetic mechanisms of macrovascular disease in diabetes, and highlights recent key descriptions of chromatinized changes associated with persistent gene expression in endothelial, smooth muscle, and circulating immune cells relevant to atherosclerosis. Furthermore we discuss the challenges associated with pharmacological targeting of epigenetic networks to correct abnormal or deregulated gene expression as a strategy to alleviate the clinical burden of diabetic cardiovascular disease. PMID:27230637

  9. A 64,489-patient full-disclosure database of cardiovascular risk factors and events status analysed in a Bayesian framework: a unique contribution to predictive science.

    PubMed

    Dehbi, Hakim-Moulay; Francis, Darrel P

    2013-04-30

    Today in the International Journal of Cardiology Liu et al. [1] publish an unusual exercise in open science which should set a pioneering trend for future knowledge sharing. They present both the principle and a large fully-analysed real world dataset to show how Bayesian reasoning can be practically helpful for clinicians at the front line. The Bayesian approach differs from the frequentist approach that is more commonly seen in reports of clinical research. Instead of a probability having a single point estimate and confidence interval, it instead has a complete probability density function. For Bayesian analysis in general, instead of there being no information before a particular study, there is some information--the "prior". The difference is that while the frequentist approach assumes that before the study all probabilities are equally plausible, the Bayesian approach recognises that even before the study, some probabilities are more likely than others. Therefore, after the study, the Bayesian approach produces a new distribution of the probability--the "posterior"--which incorporates both the raw study results and the prior distribution. Bayesian approaches are routinely used in medical decision-making and everyday life, perhaps without even realising it. Clinical test results are rarely interpreted in isolation. Instead, the background clinical belief of plausibility of various diagnoses (the prior) is updated in light of test results, to form a new set of beliefs (the posterior). We more readily accept assertions that are within the range of our prior beliefs than those that substantially contradict those beliefs. To build a model of cardiovascular risk, the Bayesian approach begins with an assumed distribution for the risk depending on the risk factors and progressively updates it with the experience of patients and their outcomes. Each additional patient makes a contribution to the model's knowledge. Then the model can be applied to any individual, and

  10. Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Cluster Headache.

    PubMed

    Lasaosa, S Santos; Diago, E Bellosta; Calzada, J Navarro; Benito, A Velázquez

    2017-06-01

     Patients with cluster headache tend to have a dysregulation of systemic blood pressure such as increased blood pressure variability and decreased nocturnal dipping. This pattern of nocturnal nondipping is associated with end-organ damage and increased risk of cardiovascular disease.  To determine if cluster headache is associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular disease.  Cross-sectional study of 33 cluster headache patients without evidence of cardiovascular disease and 30 age- and gender-matched healthy controls. Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring was performed in all subjects. We evaluate anthropometric, hematologic, and structural parameters (carotid intima-media thickness and ankle-brachial index).  Of the 33 cluster headache patients, 16 (48.5%) were nondippers, a higher percentage than expected. Most of the cluster headache patients (69.7%) also presented a pathological ankle-brachial index. In terms of the carotid intima-media thickness values, 58.3% of the patients were in the 75th percentile, 25% were in the 90th percentile, and 20% were in the 95th percentile. In the control group, only five of the 30 subjects (16.7%) had a nondipper pattern ( P  =   0.004), with 4.54% in the 90th and 95th percentiles ( P  =   0.012 and 0.015).  Compared with healthy controls, patients with cluster headache presented a high incidence (48.5%) of nondipper pattern, pathological ankle-brachial index (69.7%), and intima-media thickness values above the 75th percentile. These findings support the hypothesis that patients with cluster headache present increased risk of cardiovascular disease.

  11. Telemedicine Cardiovascular Risk Reduction in Veterans

    PubMed Central

    Melnyk, S. Dee; Zullig, Leah L.; McCant, Felicia; Danus, Susanne; Oddone, Eugene; Bastian, Lori; Olsen, Maren; Stechuchak, Karen M.; Edelman, David; Rakley, Susan; Morey, Miriam; Bosworth, Hayden B

    2013-01-01

    Background Patients with co-occurrence of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. Comprehensive programs addressing both tailored patient self-management and pharmacotherapy are needed to address barriers to optimal cardiovascular risk reduction. We are examining a Clinical Pharmacy Specialist (CPS), telephone administered intervention, relying on home monitoring, with a goal of providing tailored medication and behavioral intervention to Veterans with CVD risk. Methods Randomized controlled trial including patients with hypertension (blood pressure (BP) > 150/100 mmHg) or elevated low density liporotein (LDL) (> 130 mg/dl). Longitudinal changes in CVD risk profile and improvement in health behaviors over time will be examined. Conclusion Given the national prevalence of CVD and the dismal rates of risk factor control; intensive, but easily disseminated interventions are required to treat this epidemic. This study will be an important step in testing the effectiveness of a behavioral and medication intervention to improve CVD control among Veterans. PMID:23537965

  12. Development of a new risk model for predicting cardiovascular events among hemodialysis patients: Population-based hemodialysis patients from the Japan Dialysis Outcome and Practice Patterns Study (J-DOPPS).

    PubMed

    Matsubara, Yukiko; Kimachi, Miho; Fukuma, Shingo; Onishi, Yoshihiro; Fukuhara, Shunichi

    2017-01-01

    Cardiovascular (CV) events are the primary cause of death and becoming bedridden among hemodialysis (HD) patients. The Framingham risk score (FRS) is useful for predicting incidence of CV events in the general population, but is considerd to be unsuitable for the prediction of the incidence of CV events in HD patients, given their characteristics due to atypical relationships between conventional risk factors and outcomes. We therefore aimed to develop a new prognostic prediction model for prevention and early detection of CV events among hemodialysis patients. We enrolled 3,601 maintenance HD patients based on their data from the Japan Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (J-DOPPS), phases 3 and 4. We longitudinaly assessed the association between several potential candidate predictors and composite CV events in the year after study initiation. Potential candidate predictors included the component factors of FRS and other HD-specific risk factors. We used multivariable logistic regression with backward stepwise selection to develop our new prediction model and generated a calibration plot. Additinially, we performed bootstrapping to assess the internal validity. We observed 328 composite CV events during 1-year follow-up. The final prediction model contained six variables: age, diabetes status, history of CV events, dialysis time per session, and serum phosphorus and albumin levels. The new model showed significantly better discrimination than the FRS, in both men (c-statistics: 0.76 for new model, 0.64 for FRS) and women (c-statistics: 0.77 for new model, 0.60 for FRS). Additionally, we confirmed the consistency between the observed results and predicted results using the calibration plot. Further, we found similar discrimination and calibration to the derivation model in the bootstrapping cohort. We developed a new risk model consisting of only six predictors. Our new model predicted CV events more accurately than the FRS.

  13. Development of a new risk model for predicting cardiovascular events among hemodialysis patients: Population-based hemodialysis patients from the Japan Dialysis Outcome and Practice Patterns Study (J-DOPPS)

    PubMed Central

    Onishi, Yoshihiro; Fukuhara, Shunichi

    2017-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular (CV) events are the primary cause of death and becoming bedridden among hemodialysis (HD) patients. The Framingham risk score (FRS) is useful for predicting incidence of CV events in the general population, but is considerd to be unsuitable for the prediction of the incidence of CV events in HD patients, given their characteristics due to atypical relationships between conventional risk factors and outcomes. We therefore aimed to develop a new prognostic prediction model for prevention and early detection of CV events among hemodialysis patients. Methods We enrolled 3,601 maintenance HD patients based on their data from the Japan Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (J-DOPPS), phases 3 and 4. We longitudinaly assessed the association between several potential candidate predictors and composite CV events in the year after study initiation. Potential candidate predictors included the component factors of FRS and other HD-specific risk factors. We used multivariable logistic regression with backward stepwise selection to develop our new prediction model and generated a calibration plot. Additinially, we performed bootstrapping to assess the internal validity. Results We observed 328 composite CV events during 1-year follow-up. The final prediction model contained six variables: age, diabetes status, history of CV events, dialysis time per session, and serum phosphorus and albumin levels. The new model showed significantly better discrimination than the FRS, in both men (c-statistics: 0.76 for new model, 0.64 for FRS) and women (c-statistics: 0.77 for new model, 0.60 for FRS). Additionally, we confirmed the consistency between the observed results and predicted results using the calibration plot. Further, we found similar discrimination and calibration to the derivation model in the bootstrapping cohort. Conclusions We developed a new risk model consisting of only six predictors. Our new model predicted CV events more accurately than

  14. Optimal cut-off of obesity indices to predict cardiovascular disease risk factors and metabolic syndrome among adults in Northeast China.

    PubMed

    Yu, Jianxing; Tao, Yuchun; Tao, Yuhui; Yang, Sen; Yu, Yaqin; Li, Bo; Jin, Lina

    2016-10-13

    CVD risk factors (hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes) and MetS are closely related to obesity. The selection of an optimal cut-off for various obesity indices is particularly important to predict CVD risk factors and MetS. Sixteen thousand seven hundred sixty-six participants aged 18-79 were recruited in Jilin Province in 2012. Five obesity indices, including BMI, WC, WHR, WHtR and BAI were investigated. ROC analyses were used to evaluate the predictive ability and determine the optimal cut-off values of the obesity indices for CVD risk factors and MetS. BMI had the highest adjusted ORs, and the adjusted ORs for hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes and MetS were 1.19 (95 % CI, 1.17 to 1.20), 1.20 (95 % CI, 1.19 to 1.22), 1.12 (95 % CI, 1.10 to 1.13), and 1.40 (95 % CI, 1.38 to 1.41), respectively. However, BMI did not always have the largest adjusted AUROC. In general, the young age group (18 ~ 44) had higher ORs and AUROCs for CVD risk factors and MetS than those of the other age groups. In addition, the optimal cut-off values for WC and WHR in males were relatively higher than those in females, whereas the BAI in males was comparatively lower than that in females. The appropriate obesity index, with the corresponding optimal cut-off values, should be selected in different research studies and populations. Generally, the obesity indices and their optimal cut-off values are: BMI (24 kg/m(2)), WC (male: 85 cm; female: 80 cm), WHR (male: 0.88; female: 0.85), WHtR (0.50), and BAI (male: 25 cm; female: 30 cm). Moreover, WC is superior to other obesity indices in predicting CVD risk factors and MetS in males, whereas, WHtR is superior to other obesity indices in predicting CVD risk factors and MetS in females.

  15. [Type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factors: is comprehensive treatment required?].

    PubMed

    Nadal, Josep Franch; Gutiérrez, Pedro Conthe

    2013-09-01

    Diabetes mellitus, especially type 2, is a metabolic disease involving the coexistence of several cardiovascular risk factors. Affected patients are therefore at high cardiovascular risk (2-3 times higher than that of men in the general population and 2-6 times higher than that of women). Cardiovascular disease is the main cause of death in the diabetic population, followed by cancer. Cardiovascular risk cannot be compared between diabetic patients and persons who have already shown one or more manifestations of cardiovascular disease (such as myocardial infarction). Single risk factors should be evaluated in combination with other risk factors and a person's cardiovascular risk should be individually assessed. Cardiovascular risk assessment in patients with diabetes through current calculations methods is complex because their ability to predict risk in individuals is very low. Studies such as that by Steno have demonstrated the validity of a comprehensive strategy to control all the risk factors present in persons with type 2 diabetes mellitus, which can reduce the development of micro- and macrovascular complications and mortality by almost 50%. The present article reviews each of the classical cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, dyslipidemia, smoking, obesity, sedentariness) in relation to diabetes, as well as their recommended targets and the benefits of their control. In view of the above, a comprehensive approach is recommended to control the multiple risk factors that can coexist in persons with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  16. [Cardiovascular pharmacotherapy. Risks and adverse effects].

    PubMed

    Voigt, N; Heijman, J; Dobrev, D

    2014-03-01

    Adverse side effects of drugs are a significantly underestimated problem in modern medicine. In this review article, we summarize common adverse side effects of cardiovascular drugs. In particular, we highlight the factors promoting these adverse side effects in patients, including reduced hepatic or renal clearance in elderly patients that often requires dosage adjustment. Pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic interactions between drugs (e.g. through the cytochrome P450 system or P-glycoproteins) can modify the plasma concentration of many compounds, thereby also increasing the likelihood of unwanted side effects. The most prominent cardiac side effects include arrhythmias, e.g. atrioventricular (AV) block, drug-induced long-QT syndrome and torsade de pointes and altered inotropy. Non-cardiac side effects are subsequently discussed grouped by drug class. A better understanding of the risks and side effects of cardiovascular drugs is expected to reduce the mortality and morbidity associated with adverse side effects.

  17. [Burnout syndrome: a "true" cardiovascular risk factor].

    PubMed

    Cursoux, Pauline; Lehucher-Michel, Marie-Pascale; Marchetti, Hélène; Chaumet, Guillaume; Delliaux, Stéphane

    2012-11-01

    The burnout syndrome is characterized by emotional exhaustion, depersonalization and reduced personal accomplishment in individuals professionally involved with others. The burnout syndrome is poorly recognized, particularly in France, as a distinct nosology from adaptation troubles, stress, depression, or anxiety. Several tools quantifying burnout and emotional exhaustion exist, the most spread is the questionnaire called Maslach Burnout Inventory. The burnout syndrome alters cardiovascular function and its neuroregulation by autonomic nervous system and is associated with: increased sympathetic tone to heart and vessels after mental stress, lowered physiological post-stress vagal rebound to heart, and lowered arterial baroreflex sensitivity. Job strain as burnout syndrome seems to be a real independent cardiovascular risk factor. Oppositely, training to manage emotions could increase vagal tone to heart and should be cardio-protective.

  18. Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk in Collegiate Football Players and Nonathletes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dobrosielski, Devon A.; Rosenbaum, Daryl; Wooster, Benjamin M.; Merrill, Michael; Swanson, John; Moore, J. Brian; Brubaker, Peter H.

    2010-01-01

    Collegiate American football players may be at risk for cardiovascular disease. Objective: To compare cardiovascular disease risk factors and cardiovascular structure and function parameters of football players, stratified by position, to a group of sedentary, nonathletes. Participants: Twenty-six collegiate football players and 13 nonathletes…

  19. Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk in Collegiate Football Players and Nonathletes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dobrosielski, Devon A.; Rosenbaum, Daryl; Wooster, Benjamin M.; Merrill, Michael; Swanson, John; Moore, J. Brian; Brubaker, Peter H.

    2010-01-01

    Collegiate American football players may be at risk for cardiovascular disease. Objective: To compare cardiovascular disease risk factors and cardiovascular structure and function parameters of football players, stratified by position, to a group of sedentary, nonathletes. Participants: Twenty-six collegiate football players and 13 nonathletes…

  20. Reliability of Cardiovascular Risk Calculators to Estimate Accurately the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease in Patients With Sarcoidosis.

    PubMed

    Ungprasert, Patompong; Matteson, Eric L; Crowson, Cynthia S

    2017-09-01

    Chronic inflammation is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but most risk calculators, including the Framingham risk score (FRS) and the American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) risk score do not account for it. These calculators underestimate cardiovascular risk in patients with rheumatoid arthritis and systemic lupus erythematosus. To date, how these scores perform in the estimation of CVD risk in patients with sarcoidosis has not been assessed. In this study, the FRS and the ACC/AHA risk score were calculated for a previously identified cohort of patients with incident cases of sarcoidosis in Olmsted County, Minnesota, United States, from 1989 to 2013 as well as their gender- and age-matched comparators. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) was estimated as the ratio of the predicted and observed numbers of CVD events. All CVD events were identified by diagnosis codes and were verified by individual medical record reviews. The predicted number of CVD events among 188 cases by FRS was 11.8 and the observed number of CVD events was 34, which corresponded to an SIR of 2.88 (95% confidence interval 2.06 to 4.04). FRS underestimated the risk of CVD events in patients with sarcoidosis by gender, age and severity of sarcoidosis. The predicted number of CVD events among cases by ACC/AHA risk score was 4.6 and the observed number of CVD events was 19, corresponding to an SIR of 4.11 (95% confidence interval 2.62 to 6.44). In conclusion, the FRS and the ACC/AHA risk score underestimate the risk of CVD in patients with sarcoidosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Genetic profiling for risk reduction in human cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Puckelwartz, Megan J; McNally, Elizabeth M

    2014-03-12

    Cardiovascular disease is a major health concern affecting over 80,000,000 people in the U.S. alone. Heart failure, cardiomyopathy, heart rhythm disorders, atherosclerosis and aneurysm formation have significant heritable contribution. Supported by familial aggregation and twin studies, these cardiovascular diseases are influenced by genetic variation. Family-based linkage studies and population-based genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have each identified genes and variants important for the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease. The advent of next generation sequencing has ushered in a new era in the genetic diagnosis of cardiovascular disease, and this is especially evident when considering cardiomyopathy, a leading cause of heart failure. Cardiomyopathy is a genetically heterogeneous disorder characterized by morphologically abnormal heart with abnormal function. Genetic testing for cardiomyopathy employs gene panels, and these panels assess more than 50 genes simultaneously. Despite the large size of these panels, the sensitivity for detecting the primary genetic defect is still only approximately 50%. Recently, there has been a shift towards applying broader exome and/or genome sequencing to interrogate more of the genome to provide a genetic diagnosis for cardiomyopathy. Genetic mutations in cardiomyopathy offer the capacity to predict clinical outcome, including arrhythmia risk, and genetic diagnosis often provides an early window in which to institute therapy. This discussion is an overview as to how genomic data is shaping the current understanding and treatment of cardiovascular disease.

  2. Pediatric metabolic syndrome predicts adulthood metabolic syndrome, subclinical atherosclerosis, and type 2 diabetes mellitus but is no better than body mass index alone: the Bogalusa Heart Study and the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study.

    PubMed

    Magnussen, Costan G; Koskinen, Juha; Chen, Wei; Thomson, Russell; Schmidt, Michael D; Srinivasan, Sathanur R; Kivimäki, Mika; Mattsson, Noora; Kähönen, Mika; Laitinen, Tomi; Taittonen, Leena; Rönnemaa, Tapani; Viikari, Jorma S A; Berenson, Gerald S; Juonala, Markus; Raitakari, Olli T

    2010-10-19

    The clinical utility of identifying pediatric metabolic syndrome (MetS) is controversial. This study sought to determine the status of pediatric MetS as a risk factor for adult subclinical atherosclerosis (carotid intima-media thickness [cIMT]) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and compare and contrast this prediction with its individual components. Using data from the population-based, prospective, observational Bogalusa Heart and Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns studies, we examined the utility of 4 categorical definitions of youth MetS and their components in predicting adult high cIMT and T2DM among 1781 participants aged 9 to 18 years at baseline (1984 to 1988) who were then examined 14 to 27 years later (2001-2007) when aged 24 to 41 years. Youth with MetS were at 2 to 3 times the risk of having high cIMT and T2DM as adults compared with those free of MetS at youth. Risk estimates with the use of high body mass index were similar to those of MetS phenotypes in predicting adult outcomes. Comparisons of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and net reclassification index suggested that prediction of adult MetS, high cIMT, and T2DM in adulthood with the use of youth MetS was either equivalent or inferior to classification based on high body mass index or overweight and obesity. Youth with MetS are at increased risk of meaningful adult outcomes; however, the simplicity of screening for high BMI or overweight and obesity in the pediatric setting offers a simpler, equally accurate alternative to identifying youth at risk of developing adult MetS, high cIMT, or T2DM.

  3. Cardiovascular

    NASA Image and Video Library

    Overview of Cardiovascular research which addresses risks of space flight, including adaptive changes to the cephalad fluid shift (such as reduced circulating blood volume), potential for heart rhy...

  4. Socioeconomic deprivation and the incidence of 12 cardiovascular diseases in 1.9 million women and men: implications for risk prediction and prevention.

    PubMed

    Pujades-Rodriguez, Mar; Timmis, Adam; Stogiannis, Dimitris; Rapsomaniki, Eleni; Denaxas, Spiros; Shah, Anoop; Feder, Gene; Kivimaki, Mika; Hemingway, Harry

    2014-01-01

    Recent experimental evidence suggests that socioeconomic characteristics of neighbourhoods influence cardiovascular health, but observational studies which examine deprivation across a wide range of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are lacking. Record-linkage cohort study of 1.93 million people to examine the association between small-area socioeconomic deprivation and 12 CVDs. Health records covered primary care, hospital admissions, a myocardial infarction registry and cause-specific mortality in England (CALIBER). Patients were aged ≥30 years and were initially free of CVD. Cox proportional hazard models stratified by general practice were used. During a median follow-up of 5.5 years 114,859 people had one of 12 initial CVD presentations. In women the hazards of all CVDs except abdominal aortic aneurysm increased linearly with higher small-area socioeconomic deprivation (adjusted HR for most vs. least deprived ranged from 1.05, 95%CI 0.83-1.32 for abdominal aortic aneurysm to 1.55, 95%CI 1.42-1.70 for heart failure; I2 = 81.9%, τ2 = 0.01). In men heterogeneity was higher (HR ranged from 0.89, 95%CI 0.75-1.06 for cardiac arrest to 1.85, 95%CI 1.67-2.04 for peripheral arterial disease; I2 = 96.0%, τ2 = 0.06) and no association was observed with stable angina, sudden cardiac death, subarachnoid haemorrhage, transient ischaemic attack and abdominal aortic aneurysm. Lifetime risk difference between least and most deprived quintiles was most marked for peripheral arterial disease in women (4.3% least deprived, 5.8% most deprived) and men (4.6% least deprived, 7.8% in most deprived); but it was small or negligible for sudden cardiac death, transient ischaemic attack, abdominal aortic aneurysm and ischaemic and intracerebral haemorrhage, in both women and men. Associations of small-area socioeconomic deprivation with 12 types of CVDs were heterogeneous, and in men absent for several diseases. Findings suggest that policies to reduce deprivation may

  5. Prediction of risk of cardiovascular events in patients with mild to moderate coronary artery lesions using naïve Bayesian networks

    PubMed Central

    WANG, Wei; SONG, Xian-Tao; CHEN, Yun-Dai; YANG, Xing-Sheng; XU, Feng; ZHANG, Min; TAN, Kai; YUAN, Fei; LI, Dong; LYU, Shu-Zheng

    2016-01-01

    Background This prospective study integrated multiple clinical indexes and inflammatory markers associated with coronary atherosclerotic vulnerable plaque to establish a risk prediction model that can evaluate a patient with certain risk factors for the likelihood of the occurrence of a coronary heart disease event within one year. Methods This study enrolled in 2686 patients with mild to moderate coronary artery lesions. Eighty-five indexes were recorded, included baseline clinical data, laboratory studies, and procedural characteristics. During the 1-year follow-up, 233 events occurred, five patients died, four patients suffered a nonfatal myocardial infarction, four patients underwent revascularization, and 220 patients were readmitted for angina pectoris. The Risk Estimation Model and the Simplified Model were conducted using Bayesian networks and compared with the Single Factor Models. Results The area under the curve was 0.88 for the Bayesian Model and 0.85 for the Simplified Model, while the Single Factor Model had a maximum area under the curve of 0.65. Conclusion The new models can be used to assess the short-term risk of individual coronary heart disease events and may assist in guiding preventive care. PMID:28133466

  6. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in patients with rheumatoid arthritis using the SCORE risk index.

    PubMed

    de Campos, Otávio Augusto Martins; Nazário, Nazaré Otília; de Magalhães Souza Fialho, Sônia Cristina; Fialho, Guilherme Loureiro; de Oliveira, Fernando José Savóia; de Castro, Gláucio Ricardo Werner; Pereira, Ivânio Alves

    2016-01-01

    Rheumatoid arthritis is an autoimmune disease that causes systemic involvement and is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. To analyze the prediction index of 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular disease event in female RA patients versus controls. Case-control study with analysis of 100 female patients matched for age and gender versus 100 patients in the control group. For the prediction of 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular disease event, the SCORE and modified SCORE (mSCORE) risk indexes were used, as suggested by EULAR, in the subgroup with two or more of the following: duration of disease ≥10 years, RF and/or anti-CCP positivity, and extra-articular manifestations. The prevalence of analyzed comorbidities was similar in RA patients compared with the control group (p>0.05). The means of the SCORE risk index in RA patients and in the control group were 1.99 (SD: 1.89) and 1.56 (SD: 1.87) (p=0.06), respectively. The means of mSCORE index in RA patients and in the control group were 2.84 (SD=2.86) and 1.56 (SD=1.87) (p=0.001), respectively. By using the SCORE risk index, 11% of RA patients were classified as of high risk, and with the use of mSCORE risk index, 36% were at high risk (p<0.001). The SCORE risk index is similar in both groups, but with the application of the mSCORE index, we recognized that RA patients have a higher 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular disease event, and this reinforces the importance of factors inherent to the disease not measured in the SCORE risk index, but considered in mSCORE risk index. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  7. Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors as Predictors of Cardiovascular Events in the U.S. Astronaut Corps

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halm, M. K.; Clark, A.; Wear, M. L.; Murray, J. D.; Polk, J. D.; Amirian, E.

    2009-01-01

    Risk prediction equations from the Framingham Heart Study are commonly used to predict the absolute risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and coronary heart disease (CHD) related death. Predicting CHD-related events in the U.S. astronaut corps presents a monumental challenge, both because astronauts tend to live healthier lifestyles and because of the unique cardiovascular stressors associated with being trained for and participating in space flight. Traditional risk factors may not hold enough predictive power to provide a useful indicator of CHD risk in this unique population. It is important to be able to identify individuals who are at higher risk for CHD-related events so that appropriate preventive care can be provided. This is of special importance when planning long duration missions since the ability to provide advanced cardiac care and perform medical evacuation is limited. The medical regimen of the astronauts follows a strict set of clinical practice guidelines in an effort to ensure the best care. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of the Framingham risk score (FRS), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein levels, blood pressure, and resting pulse as predictors of CHD-related death and MI in the astronaut corps, using Cox regression. Of these factors, only two, LDL and pulse at selection, were predictive of CHD events (HR(95% CI)=1.12 (1.00-1.25) and HR(95% CI)=1.70 (1.05-2.75) for every 5-unit increase in LDL and pulse, respectively). Since traditional CHD risk factors may lack the specificity to predict such outcomes in astronauts, the development of a new predictive model, using additional measures such as electron-beam computed tomography and carotid intima-media thickness ultrasound, is planned for the future.

  8. Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors as Predictors of Cardiovascular Events in the U.S. Astronaut Corps

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halm, M. K.; Clark, A.; Wear, M. L.; Murray, J. D.; Polk, J. D.; Amirian, E.

    2009-01-01

    Risk prediction equations from the Framingham Heart Study are commonly used to predict the absolute risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and coronary heart disease (CHD) related death. Predicting CHD-related events in the U.S. astronaut corps presents a monumental challenge, both because astronauts tend to live healthier lifestyles and because of the unique cardiovascular stressors associated with being trained for and participating in space flight. Traditional risk factors may not hold enough predictive power to provide a useful indicator of CHD risk in this unique population. It is important to be able to identify individuals who are at higher risk for CHD-related events so that appropriate preventive care can be provided. This is of special importance when planning long duration missions since the ability to provide advanced cardiac care and perform medical evacuation is limited. The medical regimen of the astronauts follows a strict set of clinical practice guidelines in an effort to ensure the best care. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of the Framingham risk score (FRS), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein levels, blood pressure, and resting pulse as predictors of CHD-related death and MI in the astronaut corps, using Cox regression. Of these factors, only two, LDL and pulse at selection, were predictive of CHD events (HR(95% CI)=1.12 (1.00-1.25) and HR(95% CI)=1.70 (1.05-2.75) for every 5-unit increase in LDL and pulse, respectively). Since traditional CHD risk factors may lack the specificity to predict such outcomes in astronauts, the development of a new predictive model, using additional measures such as electron-beam computed tomography and carotid intima-media thickness ultrasound, is planned for the future.

  9. Cardiovascular Risk Factors of Taxi Drivers.

    PubMed

    Elshatarat, Rami Azmi; Burgel, Barbara J

    2016-06-01

    In the United States (U.S.), cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major leading cause of death. Despite the high mortality rate related to CVD, little is known about CVD risk factors among urban taxi drivers in the U.S. A cross-sectional design was used to identify the predictors of high cardiovascular risk factors among taxi drivers. Convenience sampling method was used to recruit 130 taxi drivers. A structured questionnaire was used to obtain the data. The sample was male (94 %), age mean (45 ± 10.75) years, married (54 %), born outside of the USA (55 %), had some college or below (61.5 %), night drivers (50.8 %), and driving on average 9.7 years and 41 h/week. About 79 % of them were eligible for CVD prevention, and 35.4 % had high CVD risk factors (4-9 risk factors). A CVD high-risk profile had a significant relationship with the subjects who were ≥55 years old; had hypertension, diabetes, or hyperlipidemia; were drinking alcohol ≥2 times/week; and had insufficient physical activity. Subjects who worked as a taxi driver for more than 10 years (OR 4.37; 95 % CI 1.82, 10.50) and had mental exertion from cab driving >5 out of 10 (OR 2.63; 95 % CI 1.05, 6.57) were more likely to have a CVD high-risk profile. As a conclusion, system-level or worksite interventions include offering healthy food at taxi dispatching locations, creating a work culture of frequent walking breaks, and interventions focusing on smoking, physical activity, and weight management. Improving health insurance coverage for this group of workers is recommended.

  10. Sortilin and the risk of cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Coutinho, Maria Francisca; Bourbon, Mafalda; Prata, Maria João; Alves, Sandra

    2013-10-01

    Plasma low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels are a key determinant of the risk of cardiovascular disease, which is why many studies have attempted to elucidate the pathways that regulate its metabolism. Novel latest-generation sequencing techniques have identified a strong association between the 1p13 locus and the risk of cardiovascular disease caused by changes in plasma LDL-C levels. As expected for a complex phenotype, the effects of variation in this locus are only moderate. Even so, knowledge of the association is of major importance, since it has unveiled a new metabolic pathway regulating plasma cholesterol levels. Crucial to this discovery was the work of three independent teams seeking to clarify the biological basis of this association, who succeeded in proving that SORT1, encoding sortilin, was the gene in the 1p13 locus involved in LDL metabolism. SORT1 was the first gene identified as determining plasma LDL levels to be mechanistically evaluated and, although the three teams used different, though appropriate, experimental methods, their results were in some ways contradictory. Here we review all the experiments that led to the identification of the new pathway connecting sortilin with plasma LDL levels and risk of myocardial infarction. The regulatory mechanism underlying this association remains unclear, but its discovery has paved the way for considering previously unsuspected therapeutic targets and approaches. Copyright © 2013 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  11. Intradialytic hypotension and risk of cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Stefánsson, Bergur V; Brunelli, Steven M; Cabrera, Claudia; Rosenbaum, David; Anum, Emmanuel; Ramakrishnan, Karthik; Jensen, Donna E; Stålhammar, Nils-Olov

    2014-12-05

    Patients undergoing hemodialysis have an elevated risk of cardiovascular disease-related morbidity and mortality compared with the general population. Intradialytic hypotension (IDH) is estimated to occur during 20%-30% of hemodialysis sessions. To date, no large studies have examined whether IDH is associated with cardiovascular outcomes. This study determined the prevalence of IDH according to interdialytic weight gain (IDWG) and studied the association between IDH and outcomes for cardiovascular events and mortality to better understand its role. This study retrospectively examined records of 39,497 hemodialysis patients during 2007 and 2008. US Renal Data System claims and dialysis provider data were used to determine outcomes. IDH was defined by current Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative guidelines (≥20 mmHg fall in systolic BP from predialysis to nadir intradialytic levels plus ≥2 responsive measures [dialysis stopped, saline administered, etc.]). IDWG was measured absolutely (in kilograms) and relatively (in percentages). IDH occurred in 31.1% of patients during the 90-day exposure assessment period. At baseline, the higher the IDWG (relative or absolute), the greater the frequency of IDH (P<0.001). For all-cause mortality, the median follow-up was 398 days (interquartile range, 231-602 days). Compared with patients without IDH, IDH was associated with all-cause mortality (7646 events; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.07 [95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 1.14]), myocardial infarction (2396 events; 1.20 [1.10 to 1.31]), hospitalization for heart failure/volume overload (8896 events; 1.13 [1.08 to 1.18]), composite hospitalization for heart failure/volume overload or cardiovascular mortality (10,805 events; 1.12 [1.08 to 1.17]), major adverse cardiac events (MACEs; myocardial infarction, stroke, cardiovascular mortality) (4994 events, 1.10 [1.03 to 1.17]), and MACEs+ (MACEs plus arrhythmia or hospitalization for heart failure/volume overload) (12

  12. [Cardiovascular risk factors in Tlemcen (Algeria)].

    PubMed

    Latifa, Boukli Hacène; Kaouel, Meguenni

    2007-01-01

    Cardiovascular risk factors were studied in a random representative sample of the urban community of Tlemcen, aged 20 years or older. The study included 805 subjects (participation rate: 72%). This study showed a high prevalence of hypertension (32.7%), diabetes (16.1%), cigarette smoking (17.1%, but 36.8% among men), blood cholesterol levels > 6.2 mmol/L (6.3%) and obesity (19.2% and significantly higher in women than in men: 27.9% vs 10.5%). These results show that the prevalence of hypertension is very high among women, reaching levels observed in industrialized countries.

  13. Cardiovascular disease risk reduction with sleep apnea treatment

    PubMed Central

    Jean-Louis, Girardin; Brown, Clinton D; Zizi, Ferdinand; Ogedegbe, Gbenga; Boutin-Foster, Carla; Gorga, Joseph; McFarlane, Samy I

    2014-01-01

    Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death among adults in developed countries. An increase in prevalent cardiovascular risk factors (e.g., obesity, hypertension and diabetes) has led to a concerted effort to raise awareness of the need to use evidence-based strategies to help patients at risk of developing cardiovascular disease and to reduce their likelihood of suffering a stroke. Sleep apnea has emerged as an important risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease. Epidemiologic and clinical evidence has prompted the American Heart Association to issue a scientific statement describing the need to recognize sleep apnea as an important target for therapy in reducing cardiovascular disease risks. This article examines evidence supporting associations of sleep apnea with cardiovascular disease and considers evidence suggesting cardiovascular risk reductions through sleep apnea treatment. Perspectives on emerging therapeutic approaches and promising areas of clinical and experimental research are also discussed. PMID:20602560

  14. An update on predictive biomarkers for major adverse cardiovascular events in patients undergoing vascular surgery.

    PubMed

    Patelis, Nikolaos; Kouvelos, George N; Koutsoumpelis, Andreas; Moris, Demetrios; Matsagkas, Miltiadis I; Arnaoutoglou, Eleni

    2016-09-01

    Cardiovascular complications signify a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing vascular surgery adversely affecting both short- and long-term prognosis. During the last decade, unmet needs for a distinct cardiovascular risk assessment have led to an intensive research for establishment of biomarkers with sufficient predictive value. This literature review aims in examining the value of several biomarkers in predicting the incidence of major adverse cardiac events in vascular surgery patients. We reviewed the English language literature and analyzed the biomarkers as independent predictors or in correlation with other factors. We found several biomarkers showing a significant predictive value for a major adverse cardiovascular event in patients undergoing vascular surgery. These biomarkers can be used in clinical practice as outcome predictors, although sensitivity and specificity varies. Detection of subclinical cardiovascular damage may improve total risk estimation and facilitate clinical assessment of patients at risk for future cardiovascular events. The wide variety of sensitivity and specificity in predicting a MACE of these biomarkers exert the need for future trials in which these markers will be tested as adjunctive tools of cardiovascular risk estimation scoring systems.

  15. Cardiovascular disease and modifiable cardiometabolic risk factors.

    PubMed

    Cannon, Christopher P

    2007-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States and many parts of the world. Potentially modifiable risk factors for CVD include tobacco use, physical inactivity, hypertension, elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and a cluster of interrelated metabolic risk factors. Over the last several decades, efforts to prevent or treat CVD risk factors have resulted in significantly lower rates of CVD-related mortality. However, many patients never achieve adequate control of CVD risk factors even when these factors have been identified. In addition, the growing prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) threatens to undermine the improvements in CVD that have been achieved. In the United States, approximately two thirds of adults are overweight or obese, and even modest excess body weight is associated with a significantly increased risk of CVD-related mortality. Lifestyle interventions to promote weight loss reduce the risk of CVD-related illness but are difficult for patients to sustain over long periods of time. The increased incidence of obesity has also contributed to significant increases in the prevalence of other important CVD risk factors, including hypertension, dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, and type 2 DM. Pharmacologic therapies are currently available to address individual CVD risk factors, and others are being evaluated, including endocannabinoid receptor antagonists, inhibitors of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor subtypes alpha and gamma, and several agents that modulate the activity of glucagon-like peptide-1. The new agents have the potential to significantly improve several CVD risk factors with a single medication and may provide clinicians with several new strategies to reduce the long-term risk of CVD.

  16. Novel and conventional biomarkers for the prediction of incident cardiovascular events in the community

    PubMed Central

    Melander, Olle; Newton-Cheh, Christopher; Almgren, Peter; Hedblad, Bo; Berglund, Göran; Engström, Gunnar; Persson, Margaretha; Smith, J. Gustav; Magnusson, Martin; Christensson, Anders; Struck, Joachim; Morgenthaler, Nils G.; Bergmann, Andreas; Pencina, Michael; Wang, Thomas J.

    2011-01-01

    Context Prior studies have conflicted regarding how much information novel biomarkers add to cardiovascular risk assessment. Objective To evaluate the utility of biomarkers for predicting cardiovascular risk when added to conventional risk factors, using contemporary biomarkers and newer statistical approaches. Design, Setting, Participants Between 1991 and 1994, 5067 participants (mean age 58, 60% women) without cardiovascular disease from a prospective cohort in Malmö, Sweden underwent measurement of C-reactive protein (CRP), mid-regional-pro-atrial natriuretic peptide, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (N-BNP), mid-regional-pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM), lipoprotein-associated phospholipase-2, and cystatin C. Participants were followed until 2006. First cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary death) were ascertained using the Swedish national hospital discharge and cause-of-death registers. Low-, intermediate-, and high-risk were defined as 10-year risks of <6%, 6–19%, or ≥20%, respectively. Main Outcome Measures Incident cardiovascular and coronary events. Results During median follow-up of 12.8 years, there were 418 cardiovascular and 230 coronary events. Models with conventional risk factors had c-statistics of 0.758 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.734–0.781) and 0.760 (0.730–0.789) for cardiovascular and coronary events. Biomarkers retained in backward-elimination models were N-BNP and CRP for cardiovascular events, and N-BNP and MR-proADM for coronary events, which raised the c-statistic by 0.007 (p=0.04) and 0.009 (p=0.08), respectively. The proportion of participants reclassified was modest (8% for cardiovascular risk, 5% for coronary risk). The net reclassification improvement (NRI) was non-significant for cardiovascular events (0.0%, 95%CI, −4.3%–4.3%) and coronary events (4.7%, −0.76%–10.1%). Greater improvements were observed in analyses restricted to intermediate-risk individuals (cardiovascular

  17. [Cardiovascular polypill in high risk patients].

    PubMed

    Lafeber, Melvin; Spiering, Wilko; Bots, Michiel L; de Valk, Vincent; Visseren, Frank L J; Grobbee, Diederick E

    2011-01-01

    The initial theoretical concept of a polypill was a fixed-dosed combination pill containing an antiplatelet agent, a cholesterol-lowering agent and multiple blood pressure-lowering agents aimed at the prevention of atherosclerotic vascular disease in the population aged 55 years and up. The reduction in the risk of cardiovascular disease does not depend on the cholesterol level and blood pressure at the start of treatment. The pharmacological reduction in risk factors in individuals with a high risk of atherosclerotic vascular disease is often suboptimal, partly due to the complexity of the guidelines and low adherence to the therapy. A polypill may offer opportunities for improvement. Research has shown that the use of combination products leads to a greater reduction in risk factors than the use of separate substances, possibly through improved adherence to the therapy. The use of a polypill in the prevention of vascular disease in high-risk patients may lead to a more effective reduction in risk, a decrease in costs and a reduction in pharmacological expenditure.

  18. [Assessing the cardiovascular risk in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus].

    PubMed

    Arnaud, L; Mathian, A; Bruckert, E; Amoura, Z

    2014-11-01

    Multiple factors contribute to the increased cardiovascular risk observed in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Among these are the so-called classical cardiovascular risk factors, the disease itself through its activity, treatments, and complications, and the thrombotic risk due to antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). Observational studies suggest that most classical cardiovascular risk factors are observed more frequently in SLE patients than in the general population, and that these are insufficient to explain the increased cardiovascular risk observed in most studies. Given this high risk, adequate management of cardiovascular risk factors should be recommended in SLE patients. Paradoxically, the benefit due to the anti-inflammatory properties of treatments such as corticosteroids may exceed, in certain cases, their pro-atherogenic effect. Importantly, the tools that were developed for the estimation of cardiovascular risk at the individual level among the general population cannot be used reliably in SLE patients, as these tools appear to underestimate the true cardiovascular risk. The adequate indications and targets of cardiovascular treatments are therefore not fully known in SLE. A better understanding of the determinants of the cardiovascular risk in SLE will allow the identification and more tailored management of these high-risk patients.

  19. Cardiovascular risk factors in polycystic ovary syndrome.

    PubMed

    Karaer, A; Cavkaytar, S; Mert, I; Buyukkagnici, U; Batioglu, S

    2010-05-01

    A total of 31 women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) and 31 healthy age/body mass index matched controls were compared for serum hormones, basal and oral-glucose stimulated glucose, insulin, homocysteine, high sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and lipid levels. The women with PCOS had significantly higher serum fasting insulin, homocysteine, total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol level than controls, whereas no differences were detected in serum fasting or OGTT 60th- and 120th-minute glucose concentrations, hsCRP, HDL cholesterol, VLDL cholesterol and triglyceride levels between PCOS and control women. Insulin resistance was found in 54.8% (17/31) of PCOS patients by glucose: insulin (G/I) ratio, whereas only 29.0% (9/31) of control women (p = 0.04). Multivariate linear regression analysis revealed that only waist/hip ratio was independent determinants of G/I ratio. PCOS is associated with some biochemical and clinical risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Therefore, patients with PCOS should undergo comprehensive evaluation for recognised cardiovascular risk factors.

  20. Wiping Out CGRP: Potential Cardiovascular Risks.

    PubMed

    MaassenVanDenBrink, Antoinette; Meijer, Joris; Villalón, Carlos M; Ferrari, Michel D

    2016-09-01

    Migraine is a common episodic neurovascular brain disorder associated with increased risk of cardio- and cerebrovascular ischemia. Migraine headache is likely caused by activation of the trigeminovascular system and release of calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP). Monoclonal antibodies against CGRP or its receptor are currently being evaluated for the prevention of migraine attacks. Preliminary efficacy data are promising. However, because CGRP may act as a vasodilatory safeguard during cerebral and cardiac ischemia, CGRP blockade could transform transient mild ischemic events into full-blown infarcts. Here, we review the cerebro- and cardiovascular risks that might be associated with CGRP blockade and which clinical and preclinical studies should be conducted to better assess the potential safety issues of this new promising class of drug.

  1. Nontraditional cardiovascular risk factors in pediatric type 1 diabetes.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, Robert P

    2016-12-01

    If we are to gain a full and complete understanding of mechanisms of cardiovascular risk factors in adolescent type 1 diabetes mechanistic risk markers must be developed that predict risk accurately and which can be used as endpoints for short or intermediate term intervention studies aimed at reducing risk. A variety of biochemical and vascular markers have potential to meet these requirements. Biochemical markers include markers of inflammation, oxidation, and endothelial damage. Vascular markers include static and dynamic measures of arterial function. Adolescents with type 1 diabetes demonstrate alterations in many of these markers. For many of the biochemical markers precise cut-off points with high sensitivity and specificity are not available and many of the vascular measures require specific equipment and are operator dependent.

  2. Cardiovascular risk, lipids and pregnancy: preeclampsia and the risk of later life cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Charlton, Francesca; Tooher, Jane; Rye, Kerry-Anne; Hennessy, Annemarie

    2014-03-01

    It has been widely thought that the effects of hypertension in pregnancy reversed after delivery and hypertension values returned to their pre-pregnancy level as it was seen as a disease of short duration in otherwise healthy young women. However, recent studies have demonstrated that the principal underlying abnormality, endothelial dysfunction, remains in women who had preeclampsia and that it is this damage that increases the risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) in later life. The contributions of hypertension and dyslipidaemia before and during the pregnancy are also important and contribute to future risk. Serum lipids are complex and change dramatically in pregnancy. In general there is an increase in most plasma lipid components, notably triglycerides, total cholesterol and the major particles of HDL and LDL. Aberrations or exaggerations in this shift (i.e. decrease HDL and a greater increase in LDL) are associated with poor outcomes of pregnancy such as preeclampsia. Long term cardiovascular disease is influenced by preeclampsia and in part potentially by the lipid changes which escalate late in disease. Whether we can influence the risk of preeclampsia by controlling cardiovascular risk factors preceding or during preeclampsia, or cardiovascular disease after preeclampsia is yet to be determined. Ultimately, strategies to control lipid concentrations will only be viable when we understand the safety to the mother at the time of the pregnancy, and to the foetus both immediately and in the very long term. Strategies to control blood pressure are well established in the non-pregnant population, and previous preeclampsia and gestational hypertension should be considered in any cardiovascular risk profile. Whether control of blood pressure in the pregnancy per se is of any longer term benefit is also yet to be determined.

  3. Epigenetics and cardiovascular risk in childhood.

    PubMed

    Martino, Francesco; Magenta, Alessandra; Pannarale, Giuseppe; Martino, Eliana; Zanoni, Cristina; Perla, Francesco M; Puddu, Paolo E; Barillà, Francesco

    2016-08-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) can arise at the early stages of development and growth. Genetic and environmental factors may interact resulting in epigenetic modifications with abnormal phenotypic expression of genetic information without any change in the nucleotide sequence of DNA. Maternal dietary imbalance, inadequate to meet the nutritional needs of the fetus can lead to intrauterine growth retardation, decreased gestational age, low birth weight, excessive post-natal growth and metabolic alterations, with subsequent appearance of CVD risk factors. Fetal exposure to high cholesterol, diabetes and maternal obesity is associated with increased risk and progression of atherosclerosis. Maternal smoking during pregnancy and exposure to various environmental pollutants induce epigenetic alterations of gene expression relevant to the onset or progression of CVD. In children with hypercholesterolemia and/or obesity, oxidative stress activates platelets and monocytes, which release proinflammatory and proatherogenic substances, inducing endothelial dysfunction, decreased Doppler flow-mediated dilation and increased carotid intima-media thickness. Primary prevention of atherosclerosis should be implemented early. It is necessary to identify, through screening, high-risk apparently healthy children and take care of them enforcing healthy lifestyle (mainly consisting of Mediterranean diet and physical activity), prescribing nutraceuticals and eventual medications, if required by a high-risk profile. The key issue is the restoration of endothelial function in the reversible stage of atherosclerosis. Epigenetics may provide new markers for an early identification of children at risk and thereby develop innovative therapies and specific nutritional interventions in critical times.

  4. Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Patients with Metabolic Syndrome Without Diabetes or Cardiovascular Disease: Usefulness of Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score.

    PubMed

    Masson, Walter; Epstein, Teo; Huerín, Melina; Lobo, Lorenzo Martín; Molinero, Graciela; Angel, Adriana; Masson, Gerardo; Millán, Diana; De Francesca, Salvador; Vitagliano, Laura; Cafferata, Alberto; Losada, Pablo

    2017-05-13

    The estimated cardiovascular risk determined by the different risk scores, could be heterogeneous in patients with metabolic syndrome without diabetes or vascular disease. This risk stratification could be improved by detecting subclinical carotid atheromatosis. To estimate the cardiovascular risk measured by different scores in patients with metabolic syndrome and analyze its association with the presence of carotid plaque. Non-diabetic patients with metabolic syndrome (Adult Treatment Panel III definition) without cardiovascular disease were enrolled. The Framingham score, the Reynolds score, the new score proposed by the 2013 ACC/AHA Guidelines and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator were calculated. Prevalence of carotid plaque was determined by ultrasound examination. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed. A total of 238 patients were enrolled. Most patients were stratified as "low risk" by Framingham score (64%) and Reynolds score (70.1%). Using the 2013 ACC/AHA score, 45.3% of the population had a risk ≥7.5%. A significant correlation was found between classic scores but the agreement (concordance) was moderate. The correlation between classical scores and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator was poor. Overall, the prevalence of carotid plaque was 28.2%. The continuous metabolic syndrome score used in our study showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque (area under the curve 0.752). In this population, the calculated cardiovascular risk was heterogenic. The prevalence of carotid plaque was high. The Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque.

  5. Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Severely Obese Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Michalsky, Marc P.; Inge, Thomas H.; Simmons, Mark; Jenkins, Todd M.; Buncher, Ralph; Helmrath, Michael; Brandt, Mary L.; Harmon, Carroll M.; Courcoulas, Anita; Chen, Michael; Horlick, Mary; Daniels, Stephen R.; Urbina, Elaine M.

    2015-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Severe obesity is increasingly common in the adolescent population but, as of yet, very little information exists regarding cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks in this group. OBJECTIVE To assess the baseline prevalence and predictors of CVD risks among severely obese adolescents undergoing weight-loss surgery. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A prospective cohort study was conducted from February 28, 2007, to December 30, 2011, at the following 5 adolescent weight-loss surgery centers in the United States: Nationwide Children’s Hospital in Columbus, Ohio; Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center in Cincinnati, Ohio; Texas Children’s Hospital in Houston; University of Pittsburgh Medical Center in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; and Children’s Hospital of Alabama in Birmingham. Consecutive patients aged 19 years or younger were offered enrollment in a long-term outcome study; the final analysis cohort consisted of 242 participants. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES This report examined the preoperative prevalence of CVD risk factors (ie, fasting hyperinsulinemia, elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels, impaired fasting glucose levels, dyslipidemia, elevated blood pressure, and diabetes mellitus) and associations between risk factors and body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared), age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Preoperative data were collected within 30 days preceding bariatric surgery. RESULTS The mean (SD) age was 17 (1.6) years and median body mass index was 50.5. Cardiovascular disease risk factor prevalence was fasting hyperinsulinemia (74%), elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels (75%), dyslipidemia (50%), elevated blood pressure (49%), impaired fasting glucose levels (26%), and diabetes mellitus (14%). The risk of impaired fasting glucose levels, elevated blood pressure, and elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels increased by 15%, 10%, and 6%, respectively, per 5-unit

  6. Cardiovascular risk in operators under radiofrequency electromagnetic radiation.

    PubMed

    Vangelova, Katia; Deyanov, Christo; Israel, Mishel

    2006-03-01

    The aim of the study was to assess the long-term effects of radiofrequency electromagnetic radiation (EMR) on the cardiovascular system. Two groups of exposed operators (49 broadcasting (BC) station and 61 TV station operators) and a control group of 110 radiorelay station operators, matched by sex and age, with similar job characteristics except for the radiofrequency EMR were studied. The EMR exposure was assessed and the time-weighted average (TWA) was calculated. The cardiovascular risk factors arterial pressure, lipid profile, body mass index, waist/hip ratio, smoking, and family history of cardiovascular disease were followed. The systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP), total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) were significantly higher in the two exposed groups. It was found that the radiofrequency EMR exposure was associated with greater chance of becoming hypertensive and dyslipidemic. The stepwise multiple regression equations showed that the SBP and TWA predicted the high TC and high LDL-C, while the TC, age and abdominal obesity were predictors for high SBP and DBP. In conclusion, our data show that the radiofrequency EMR contributes to adverse effects on the cardiovascular system.

  7. Barriers to apply cardiovascular prediction rules in primary care: a postal survey

    PubMed Central

    Eichler, Klaus; Zoller, Marco; Tschudi, Peter; Steurer, Johann

    2007-01-01

    Background Although cardiovascular prediction rules are recommended by guidelines to evaluate global cardiovascular risk for primary prevention, they are rarely used in primary care. Little is known about barriers for application. The objective of this study was to evaluate barriers impeding the application of cardiovascular prediction rules in primary prevention. Methods We performed a postal survey among general physicians in two Swiss Cantons by a purpose designed questionnaire. Results 356 of 772 dispatched questionnaires were returned (response rate 49.3%). About three quarters (74%) of general physicians rarely or never use cardiovascular prediction rules. Most often stated barriers to apply prediction rules among rarely- or never-users are doubts concerning over-simplification of risk assessment using these instruments (58%) and potential risk of (medical) over-treatment (54%). 57% report that the numerical information resulting from prediction rules is often not helpful for decision-making in practice. Conclusion If regular application of cardiovascular prediction rules in primary care is in demand additional interventions are needed to increase acceptance of these tools for patient management among general physicians. PMID:17201905

  8. Androgen deprivation therapy and cardiovascular risk.

    PubMed

    Punnen, Sanoj; Cooperberg, Matthew R; Sadetsky, Natalia; Carroll, Peter R

    2011-09-10

    The potential association between androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) and cardiovascular mortality (CVM) remains controversial. This study assessed mortality outcomes in a large national registry to further elucidate the association between treatment selection and cause of mortality. A total of 7,248 men in the CaPSURE registry were analyzed. Treatment was categorized as local only, primary ADT monotherapy, local treatment plus ADT, and watchful waiting/active surveillance (WW/AS). Competing hazards survival analysis was performed for prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM), CVM, and all-cause mortality. A propensity score-adjusted and a propensity-matched analysis were undertaken to adjust for imbalances in covariates among men receiving various treatments. Patients treated with ADT or WW/AS had a higher likelihood of PCSM than those treated with local therapy alone. Patients treated with primary ADT had an almost two-fold greater likelihood of CVM (HR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.29 to 2.97) than those treated with local therapy alone; however, patients treated with WW/AS had a greater than two-fold increased risk of CVM (HR, 2.46; 95% CI, 1.53 to 3.95). A propensity-matching algorithm in a subset of 1,391 patients was unable to find a significant difference in CVM between those who did or did not receive ADT. Patients matched on propensity to receive ADT did not show an association between ADT and CVM. This suggests that potential unmeasured variables affecting treatment selection may confound the relationship between ADT use and cardiovascular risk. However, an association may yet exist, because the propensity score could not include all known risk factors for CVM.

  9. Cardiovascular Event Prediction by Machine Learning: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

    PubMed

    Ambale-Venkatesh, Bharath; Yang, Xiaoying; Wu, Colin O; Liu, Kiang; Hundley, W G; McClelland, Robyn L; Gomes, Antoinette S; Folsom, Aaron R; Shea, Steven; Guallar, Eliseo; Bluemke, David A; Lima, João A

    2017-08-09

    Rationale: Machine learning may be useful to characterize cardiovascular risk, predict outcomes and identify biomarkers in population studies. Objective: To test the ability of random survival forests (RF), a machine learning technique, to predict six cardiovascular outcomes in comparison to standard cardiovascular risk scores. Methods and Results: We included participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Baseline measurements were used to predict cardiovascular outcomes over 12 years of follow-up. MESA was designed to study progression of subclinical disease to cardiovascular events where participants were initially free of CV disease. All 6814 participants from MESA, aged 45 to 84 years, from 4 ethnicities, and 6 centers across USA were included. 735 variables from imaging and non-invasive tests, questionnaires and biomarker panels were obtained. We used the RF technique to identify the top 20 predictors of each outcome. Imaging, electrocardiography and serum biomarkers featured heavily on the top-20 lists as opposed to traditional CV risk factors. Age was the most important predictor for all-cause mortality. Fasting glucose levels and carotid ultrasonography measures were important predictors of stroke. Coronary artery calcium score was the most important predictor of coronary heart disease and all atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease combined outcomes. Left ventricular structure and function, and cardiac troponin-T were among the top predictors for incident heart failure. Creatinine, age and ankle brachial index were among the top predictors of atrial fibrillation. Tissue necrosis factor-α and interleukin-2 soluble receptors, and N-terminal pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide levels were important across all outcomes. The RF technique performed better than established risk scores with increased prediction accuracy (decreased Brier score by 10-25%). Conclusions: Machine learning in conjunction with deep phenotyping improve prediction accuracy

  10. Aortic valve calcium independently predicts coronary and cardiovascular events in a primary prevention population.

    PubMed

    Owens, David S; Budoff, Matthew J; Katz, Ronit; Takasu, Junichiro; Shavelle, David M; Carr, J Jeffrey; Heckbert, Susan R; Otto, Catherine M; Probstfield, Jeffrey L; Kronmal, Richard A; O'Brien, Kevin D

    2012-06-01

    This study sought to test whether aortic valve calcium (AVC) is independently associated with coronary and cardiovascular events in a primary-prevention population. Aortic sclerosis is associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality among the elderly, but the mechanisms underlying this association remain controversial. Also, it is unknown whether this association extends to younger individuals. We performed a prospective analysis of 6,685 participants in MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). All subjects, ages 45 to 84 years and free of clinical cardiovascular disease at baseline, underwent computed tomography for AVC and coronary artery calcium scoring. The primary, pre-specified combined endpoint of cardiovascular events included myocardial infarctions, fatal and nonfatal strokes, resuscitated cardiac arrest, and cardiovascular death, whereas a secondary combined endpoint of coronary events excluded strokes. The association between AVC and clinical events was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression with incremental adjustments for demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, inflammatory biomarkers, and subclinical coronary atherosclerosis. Over a median follow-up of 5.8 years (interquartile range: 5.6 to 5.9 years), adjusting for demographics and cardiovascular risk factors, subjects with AVC (n = 894, 13.4%) had higher risks of cardiovascular (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.50; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.10 to 2.03) and coronary (HR: 1.72; 95% CI: 1.19 to 2.49) events compared with those without AVC. Adjustments for inflammatory biomarkers did not alter these associations, but adjustment for coronary artery calcium substantially attenuated both cardiovascular (HR: 1.32; 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.78) and coronary (HR: 1.41; 95% CI: 0.98 to 2.02) event risk. AVC remained predictive of cardiovascular mortality even after full adjustment (HR: 2.51; 95% CI: 1.22 to 5.21). In this MESA cohort, free of clinical cardiovascular disease, AVC predicts

  11. [Cardiovascular risk factors in the population at risk of poverty and social exclusión].

    PubMed

    Álvarez-Fernández, Carlos; Vaquero-Abellán, Manuel; Ruíz-Gandara, África; Romero-Saldaña, Manuel; Álvarez-López, Carlos

    2017-03-01

    Detect if there are differences in prevalence, distribution of cardiovascular risk factors and risk according to REGICOR and SCORE's function; between people belonging to different occupational classes and population at risk of social exclusion. Cross-sectional. SITE: Occupational health unit of the City Hall of Córdoba. Sample availability of 628 people, excluding 59 by age or incomplete data. The group of municipal workers was obtained randomly while all contracted exclusion risk was taken. No preventive, diagnostic or therapeutic actions that modify the course of the previous situation of workers were applied. Smoke, glucose, lipids, blood pressure and BMI as main variables. T-student were used for comparison of means and percentages for Chi(2). Statistical significance attached to an alpha error <5% and confidence interval with a 95% security. Receiver operator curves (ROC) were employed to find out what explanatory variables predict group membership of workers at risk of exclusion. Smoking (95% CI: -.224;-.443), hypercholesterolemia (95% CI: -.127;-.320), obesity (95% CI: -.005;-0.214), diabetes (95% CI: -.060;-.211) and cardiovascular risk were higher in men at risk of exclusion. In women there were differences in the same variables except smoking (P=.053). The existence of inequalities in prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors is checked. In a context of social crisis, health promotion and primary prevention programs directing to the most vulnerable, they are needed to mit. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  12. Systematic screening for cardiovascular risk at pharmacies

    PubMed Central

    Rohla, Miklos; Haberfeld, Heinz; Sinzinger, Helmut; Kritz, Harald; Tscharre, Maximilian; Freynhofer, Matthias K; Huber, Kurt; Weiss, Thomas W

    2016-01-01

    Background Early identification and treatment of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) is essential to prevent excess morbidity, mortality and healthcare-related costs. We sought to investigate whether an active screening programme at pharmacies could identify a significant proportion of patients with previously undetected CVRFs. Methods and results Between April and July 2013, 184 pharmacies in Lower Austria enrolled a total of 6800 participants, in whom body mass index (BMI), blood pressure (BP), total cholesterol and blood glucose were measured. Mean age was 58±17 years and 67.8% were women. 21% of men and 16% of women had a BMI≥30 kg/m2. The crude prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) was 7%, hypercholesterolaemia was identified in 57%, and 44% had elevated BP. Among fasting individuals (n=1814), DM was found in 18%. In total, 30% were confronted with a CVRF they were previously unaware of, and pharmacists recommended 45% of all participants to actively consult a physician. A first-time diagnosis of a CVRF was most frequent in the age groups between 25 and 64 (32% of participants). Conclusions This pharmacy-based approach for cardiovascular risk screening found similar overall prevalences of CVRFs as reported by national surveys, but revealed underdiagnoses, particularly in lower age groups. A previously unknown CVRF was identified in every third individual, frequently prompting the pharmacists to recommend the consultation of a physician. An active screening approach at pharmacies might therefore serve as an effective alternative to the public preventive medical examination, particularly in younger age groups. PMID:27738518

  13. Dietary sodium intake and prediction of cardiovascular events.

    PubMed

    Äijälä, M; Malo, E; Santaniemi, M; Bloigu, R; Silaste, M-L; Kesäniemi, Y A; Ukkola, O

    2015-09-01

    The association of dietary sodium and cardiovascular disease (CVD), as well as the reduction of sodium intake in the prevention of CVD, has been under debate. To study whether sodium consumption has a role as a risk factor for fatal and non-fatal CVD. A well-defined population-based cohort of 1045 subjects collected between 1991 and 1993 (mean age 51.4 years) was used with approximately 19 years' follow-up. At the baseline, 716 subjects filled in a 1-week food follow-up diary, which was used to calculate the daily sodium intake (mg/1000 kcal). The baseline sodium intake correlated significantly with age (rs=0.117, P=0.002), BMI (rs=0.216, P=0.000), waist circumference (rs=0.268, P=0.000), smoking (rs=0.144, P=0.000), alcohol consumption (rs=0.111, P=0.003), systolic blood pressure (rs=0.106, P=0.005) and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol (rs=0.081, P=0.033). Those who had cardiovascular events in the follow-up consumed more sodium at the baseline (mean 2010.4 mg/1000 kcal/day, s.d. 435.2, n=101) compared with the subjects without events (mean 1849.9 mg/1000 kcal/day, s.d. 361.2, n=589; t-test; P=0.001). The incidence of cardiovascular events was greater in the highest quartile (22.1%) than in the lower quartiles (first 11.0%, second 9.9% and third 15.6%; X(2); P=0.005). Cox regression analysis showed that sodium intake as a continuous variable predicts CVD events (P=0.031) independently when age, sex, smoking, alcohol consumption, systolic blood pressure, LDL cholesterol and waist circumference were added as covariates. This predictive role is seen especially in the group of subjects on hypertensive medication (P=0.001). Dietary sodium intake is a significant independent predictor of cardiovascular events in the study population.

  14. EXCESS PRESSURE INTEGRAL PREDICTS CARDIOVASCULAR EVENTS INDEPENDENT OF OTHER RISK FACTORS IN THE CONDUIT ARTERY FUNCTIONAL EVALUATION (CAFE) SUB-STUDY OF ANGLO-SCANDINAVIAN CARDIAC OUTCOMES TRIAL (ASCOT)

    PubMed Central

    Davies, Justin E; Lacy, Peter; Tillin, Therese; Collier, David; Cruickshank, J Kennedy; Francis, Darrel P; Malaweera, Anura; Mayet, Jamil; Stanton, Alice; Williams, Bryan; Parker, Kim H; McG Thom, Simon A; Hughes, Alun D

    2014-01-01

    Excess pressure integral (XSPI), a new index of surplus work performed by the left ventricle, can be calculated from blood pressure (BP) waveforms and may indicate circulatory dysfunction. We investigated whether XSPI predicted future cardiovascular (CV) events and target organ damage in treated hypertensive individuals. Radial BP waveforms were acquired by tonometry in 2069 individuals (63±8y) in the Conduit Artery Functional Evaluation sub-study of the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes trial. Measurements of left ventricular mass index (LVMI; n = 862) and common carotid artery intima media thickness (cIMT; n = 923) were also performed. XSPI and the integral of reservoir pressure (PRI) were lower in people treated with amlodipine ± perindopril than atenolol ± bendroflumethiazide, although brachial systolic BP was similar. A total of 134 CV events accrued over a median 3.4 years of follow-up; XSPI was a significant predictor of CV events after adjustment for age and sex and this relationship was unaffected by adjustment for conventional CV risk factors or Framingham risk score. XSPI, central systolic BP, central augmentation pressure (AP), central pulse pressure (cPP) and PRI were correlated with LVMI, but only XSPI, AP and cPP were positively associated with cIMT. Associations between LVMI and XSPI and PRI, and cIMT and XSPI were unaffected by multivariable adjustment for other covariates. XSPI is a novel indicator of CV dysfunction and independently predicts CV events and target organ damage in a prospective clinical trial. PMID:24821941

  15. Hyperuricemia as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease: clinical review.

    PubMed

    Gudiño Gomezjurado, Álvaro

    2016-11-15

    Cardiovascular diseases are one of the most important causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Several risk factors have been associated with the development of these pathologies. However, there is controversy about whether hyperuricemia is an independent risk factor for developing cardiovascular disease. To answer this question, we performed a recent literature review of relevant published material to assess the association of hyperuricemia with four major cardiovascular diseases: hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure and atrial fibrillation.

  16. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in primary health care

    PubMed Central

    Korhonen, Päivi; Vesalainen, Risto; Aarnio, Pertti; Kautiainen, Hannu; Järvenpää, Salme; Kantola, Ilkka

    2012-01-01

    Objective This study aimed at investigating whether cardiovascular risk factors and their impact on total risk estimation differ between men and women. Design Cross-sectional cohort study. Subjects Finnish cardiovascular risk subjects (n = 904) without established cardiovascular disease, renal disease, or known diabetes. Main outcome measures Ankle-brachial index (ABI), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), oral glucose tolerance test, and total cardiovascular risk using SCORE risk charts. Results According to the SCORE risk charts, 27.0% (95% CI 23.1–31.2) of the women and 63.1% (95% CI 58.3–67.7) of the men (p < 0.001) were classified as high-risk subjects. Of the women classified as low-risk subjects according to SCORE, 25% had either subclinical peripheral arterial disease or renal insufficiency. Conclusions The SCORE system does not take into account cardiovascular risk factors typical in women, and thus underestimates their total cardiovascular risk. Measurement of ABI and eGFR in primary care might improve cardiovascular risk assessment. especially in women. PMID:22643155

  17. Sex Difference in Cardiovascular Risk: Role of Pulse Pressure Amplification

    PubMed Central

    Regnault, Véronique; Thomas, Frédérique; Safar, Michel E.; Osborne-Pellegrin, Mary; Khalil, Raouf A.; Pannier, Bruno; Lacolley, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Our aim was to explore whether the carotid/brachial pulse pressure (C/B-PP) ratio selectively predicts the gender difference in age-related cardiovascular death. Background Hypertension and cardiovascular complications are more severe in men and post-menopausal women than in pre-menopausal women. C-PP is lower than B-PP, and the C/B-PP ratio is a physiological marker of PP amplification between C and B arteries which tends toward 1.0 with age. Methods The study involved 72,437 men (aged 41.0±11.1 years, mean±SD) and 52,714 women (39.5±11.6 years). C-PP was calculated for each gender by a multiple regression analysis including B-PP, age, height and risk factors, a method validated beforehand in a subgroup of 834 subjects. During the 12 years of follow-up, 3028 men and 969 women died. Results In the total population, the adjusted hazard ratios (HR, 95% CI) of C/B-PP ratio were: (i) for all cause mortality: men, 1.51 (1.47–1.56), women, 2.46 (2.27–2.67) (p<0.0001); (ii) for cardiovascular mortality: men, 1.81 (1.70–1.93), women, 4.46 (3.66–5.45) (p<0.0001). The C/B-PP impact on mortality did not significantly increase from younger men to those over 55, from: 1.44 (1.31–1.58) to 1.65 (1.48–1.84), but increased significantly with age in women: 3.19 (2.08–4.89) vs 5.60 (4.17–7.50) (p<0.01). Thus the mortality impact of C/B-PP ratio was 3-fold higher in women than in men over 55. Conclusions The C/B amplification is highly predictive of differences in cardiovascular risk between men and women. In post-menopausal women, the attenuation of PP amplification, mainly related to increased aortic stiffness, contributes to the significant increase in cardiovascular risk. PMID:22575315

  18. Melanoma risk prediction models.

    PubMed

    Nikolić, Jelena; Loncar-Turukalo, Tatjana; Sladojević, Srdan; Marinković, Marija; Janjić, Zlata

    2014-08-01

    The lack of effective therapy for advanced stages of melanoma emphasizes the importance of preventive measures and screenings of population at risk. Identifying individuals at high risk should allow targeted screenings and follow-up involving those who would benefit most. The aim of this study was to identify most significant factors for melanoma prediction in our population and to create prognostic models for identification and differentiation of individuals at risk. This case-control study included 697 participants (341 patients and 356 controls) that underwent extensive interview and skin examination in order to check risk factors for melanoma. Pairwise univariate statistical comparison was used for the coarse selection of the most significant risk factors. These factors were fed into logistic regression (LR) and alternating decision trees (ADT) prognostic models that were assessed for their usefulness in identification of patients at risk to develop melanoma. Validation of the LR model was done by Hosmer and Lemeshow test, whereas the ADT was validated by 10-fold cross-validation. The achieved sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and AUC for both models were calculated. The melanoma risk score (MRS) based on the outcome of the LR model was presented. The LR model showed that the following risk factors were associated with melanoma: sunbeds (OR = 4.018; 95% CI 1.724-9.366 for those that sometimes used sunbeds), solar damage of the skin (OR = 8.274; 95% CI 2.661-25.730 for those with severe solar damage), hair color (OR = 3.222; 95% CI 1.984-5.231 for light brown/blond hair), the number of common naevi (over 100 naevi had OR = 3.57; 95% CI 1.427-8.931), the number of dysplastic naevi (from 1 to 10 dysplastic naevi OR was 2.672; 95% CI 1.572-4.540; for more than 10 naevi OR was 6.487; 95%; CI 1.993-21.119), Fitzpatricks phototype and the presence of congenital naevi. Red hair, phototype I and large congenital naevi were only present in melanoma patients and thus

  19. Risk and the physics of clinical prediction.

    PubMed

    McEvoy, John W; Diamond, George A; Detrano, Robert C; Kaul, Sanjay; Blaha, Michael J; Blumenthal, Roger S; Jones, Steven R

    2014-04-15

    The current paradigm of primary prevention in cardiology uses traditional risk factors to estimate future cardiovascular risk. These risk estimates are based on prediction models derived from prospective cohort studies and are incorporated into guideline-based initiation algorithms for commonly used preventive pharmacologic treatments, such as aspirin and statins. However, risk estimates are more accurate for populations of similar patients than they are for any individual patient. It may be hazardous to presume that the point estimate of risk derived from a population model represents the most accurate estimate for a given patient. In this review, we exploit principles derived from physics as a metaphor for the distinction between predictions regarding populations versus patients. We identify the following: (1) predictions of risk are accurate at the level of populations but do not translate directly to patients, (2) perfect accuracy of individual risk estimation is unobtainable even with the addition of multiple novel risk factors, and (3) direct measurement of subclinical disease (screening) affords far greater certainty regarding the personalized treatment of patients, whereas risk estimates often remain uncertain for patients. In conclusion, shifting our focus from prediction of events to detection of disease could improve personalized decision-making and outcomes. We also discuss innovative future strategies for risk estimation and treatment allocation in preventive cardiology. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Improvement in Mortality Risk Prediction Following Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Through Addition of a “Compassionate Use” Variable to the National Cardiovascular Data Registry CathPCI® Dataset: A Study from the Massachusetts Angioplasty Registry

    PubMed Central

    Resnic, Frederic S.; Normand, Sharon-Lise T.; Piemonte, Thomas C.; Shubrooks, Samuel J.; Zelevinsky, Katya; Lovett, Ann; Ho, Kalon K.L.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives This study investigated the impact of adding novel elements to models predicting in-hospital mortality following percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs). Background Massachusetts (MA) mandated public reporting of hospital-specific PCI mortality in 2003. In 2006, a physician advisory group recommended adding to the prediction models three attributes not collected by the National Cardiovascular Data Registry instrument. These “compassionate use” (CU) features included coma on presentation, active hemodynamic support during PCI, and cardiopulmonary resuscitation at PCI initiation. Methods From October 2005 through September 2007, PCI was performed during 29,784 admissions in MA non-federal hospitals. Of these, 5,588 involved patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction or cardiogenic shock. Cases with CU criteria identified were adjudicated by trained physician reviewers. Regression models with and without the CU composite variable (presence of any of the 3 features) were compared using areas under the receiver operator characteristic curves (AUC). Results Unadjusted mortality in this high-risk subset was 5.7%. Among these admissions, 96 (1.7%) had at least one CU feature, with 69.8% mortality. The adjusted odds ratio for in-hospital death for CU PCIs (vs. no CU criteria) was 27.3 (95% CI 14.5–47.6). Discrimination of the model improved after including CU, with AUC increasing from 0.87 to 0.90 (p<0.01), while goodness of fit was preserved. Conclusions A small proportion of patients at extreme risk for post-PCI mortality can be identified using pre-procedural factors not routinely collected, but that heighten predictive accuracy. Such improvements in model performance may result in greater confidence in reporting of risk-adjusted PCI outcomes. PMID:21329835

  1. Cardiovascular Risk Factor Levels in Adults with Mental Retardation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rimmer, James H.; And Others

    1994-01-01

    Comparison of cardiovascular risk factors (blood lipids, obesity, and smoking) in 329 adults with mental retardation residing in various settings with subjects in the Framingham Offspring Study found that adults with mental retardation had cardiovascular risk profiles similar to those of individuals without mental retardation. (Author/DB)

  2. Special Diabetes Program for Indians: Retention in Cardiovascular Risk Reduction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Manson, Spero M.; Jiang, Luohua; Zhang, Lijing; Beals, Janette; Acton, Kelly J.; Roubideaux, Yvette

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: This study examined the associations between participant and site characteristics and retention in a multisite cardiovascular disease risk reduction project. Design and Methods: Data were derived from the Special Diabetes Program for Indians Healthy Heart Demonstration Project, an intervention to reduce cardiovascular risk among American…

  3. Special Diabetes Program for Indians: Retention in Cardiovascular Risk Reduction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Manson, Spero M.; Jiang, Luohua; Zhang, Lijing; Beals, Janette; Acton, Kelly J.; Roubideaux, Yvette

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: This study examined the associations between participant and site characteristics and retention in a multisite cardiovascular disease risk reduction project. Design and Methods: Data were derived from the Special Diabetes Program for Indians Healthy Heart Demonstration Project, an intervention to reduce cardiovascular risk among American…

  4. The CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores predict adverse vascular function, ischemic stroke and cardiovascular death in high-risk patients without atrial fibrillation: role of incorporating PR prolongation.

    PubMed

    Chan, Yap-Hang; Yiu, Kai-Hang; Lau, Kui-Kai; Yiu, Yuen-Fung; Li, Sheung-Wai; Lam, Tai-Hing; Lau, Chu-Pak; Siu, Chung-Wah; Tse, Hung-Fat

    2014-12-01

    To investigate whether the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores have clinical utility for prediction of adverse vascular function and vascular dysfunction-mediated incident cardiovascular (CV) events among high-risk patients without atrial fibrillation (AF), and the additional value of incorporating PR prolongation to the scores. We analyzed 579 high-risk CV outpatients without clinical AF in a prospective cohort for new-onset ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), congestive heart failure (CHF), and CV death. Brachial flow-mediated dilation (FMD) and nitroglycerin-mediated dilatation (NMD), carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and pulse wave velocity (PWV) were determined. Baseline CHADS2 score was associated with lower FMD (Pearson r = -0.16, P < 0.001) and NMD (r = -0.17, P < 0.001), higher carotid IMT (r = 0.30, P < 0.001) and PWV (r = 0.35, P < 0.001; similar for CHA2DS2-VASc score: All P < 0.05). After follow-up of 63 ± 11 months, 82 patients (14.2%) developed combined CV endpoint. ROC curve analysis showed that both CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were predictors for ischemic stroke (C-Statistic: CHADS2 0.70, P = 0.004; CHA2DS2-VASc 0.68, P = 0.010), MI (CHADS2 0.63, P = 0.030; CHA2DS2-VASc 0.70, P = 0.001), and CV death (CHADS2 0.63, P = 0.022; CHA2DS2-VASc 0.65, P = 0.011). Higher CHADS2 score was associated with reduced event-free survival from combined CV endpoints (log-rank = 16.7, P < 0.001) with differences potentiated if stratified by CHA2DS2-VASc score (log-rank = 29.2, P < 0.001). Incorporating PR prolongation, the CHA2DS2-VASc-PR score achieved the highest C-Statistic for CV death prediction (0.70, P < 0.001) superior to the CHADS2 score (chi-square: 12.1, P = 0.0005). The CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc predict vascular dysfunction and cardiovascular events in high-risk CV patients without clinical AF, with further improved performance incorporating PR prolongation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Nurse management of cardiovascular risk factors in rheumatoid arthritis.

    PubMed

    Garcia-Diaz, Silvia; Corominas, Hèctor

    Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, multi-system inflammatory disease. The incidence and prevalence of RA varies considerably between geographic areas and over time; the prevalence of RA in adults aged > 20 years in Spain is around 0.5% (Carmona et al, 2002). People with RA also have extra-articular manifestations, presenting an increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality risk; therefore, cardiovascular risk screening and management strategies are necessary in individuals with RA. The importance of interventions in the management of people with RA and cardiovascular risk factors is recognised by the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) recommendations (Peters et al, 2010). Rheumatology specialist nurses are well placed to include routine cardiovascular risk assessment for people with RA attending clinic, and to provide educational interventions to reduce cardiovascular risk, such as smoking cessation, weight loss, eating a balanced, low-fat diet and exercising regularly.

  6. Cardiovascular disease risk in a semirural community in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Chin, Chia Yook; Pengal, Srinivas

    2009-10-01

    It has been argued that cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not very prevalent in developing countries, particularly in a rural community. This study examined the prevalence of CVD risk of a semirural community in Malaysia through an epidemiological survey. Subjects were invited to a free health screening service carried out over a period of 6 weeks. Then, a follow-up study of the initial nonresponders was done in the villages that showed a poorer response. The survey was conducted using a standardized questionnaire. Hypertension was defined as blood pressure > or =140/90 mm Hg. The Framingham Coronary Disease Risk Prediction Score (FRS) was used as a measure of CVD risk. A total of 1417 subjects participated in this survey. The response rate was 56%. A follow-up survey of the nonresponders did not show any differences from the initial responders in any systematic way. The prevalence of CVD risk factors was high in both men and women. The mean (+/-SD) FRS was 9.4 (+/-2.5) and 11.3 (+/-4.1) for men and women, respectively. The mean predicted coronary heart disease (CHD) risk was high at 20% to 25% for men and medium at 11% to 13% for women. Overall, 55.8% of the men had >20% risk of having a CHD event in the next 10 years whereas women's risk was lower, with 15.1% having a risk of > or =20%. The prevalence of CVD risk even in a semirural community of a developing country is high. Every effort should be made to lower these risk factors.

  7. The fat mass and obesity-associated (FTO) gene variant rs9939609 predicts long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and related death independent of the traditional risk factors.

    PubMed

    Äijälä, Meiju; Ronkainen, Justiina; Huusko, Tuija; Malo, Elina; Savolainen, Eeva-Riitta; Savolainen, Markku J; Salonurmi, Tuire; Bloigu, Risto; Kesäniemi, Y Antero; Ukkola, Olavi

    2015-01-01

    The impact of the rs9939609 FTO variant on cardiovascular events was investigated in the 19-year follow-up of subjects recruited to the OPERA study. A total of 212 cardiovascular disease (CVD) and 152 coronary heart disease (CHD) events or deaths occurred during follow-up. The logistic regression analysis revealed that among the AA genotype the incidence of CHD (OR 1.905; 95% CI 1.250-2.903, p = 0.001) and CVD (OR 1.849; 1.265-2.702, p = 0.003) events or death was significantly higher when adjusted for age, sex, and study group. After further adjustment with BMI, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, the higher incidence of CHD and CVD events or death among subjects with the AA genotype remained significant (OR 1.895; p = 0.002 and p = 0.004, respectively). In Cox regression analysis, the AA genotype displayed a higher rate of CVD and CHD death when the model was adjusted for sex, age, and study group (p = 0.006 and p = 0.046). FTO rs9939609 AA genotype improved the C-index of the final predictive model from 0.709 to 0.715. In reclassification analyses, the integrated discrimination index was significant 0.011 (p = 0.010). The AA genotype of FTO rs9939609 seems to be associated with a higher risk of CVD, and this phenomenon seems to be independent of the traditional risk factors for atherosclerosis.

  8. C-reactive protein levels in patients at cardiovascular risk: EURIKA study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) levels are associated with high cardiovascular risk, and might identify patients who could benefit from more carefully adapted risk factor management. We have assessed the prevalence of elevated CRP levels in patients with one or more traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Methods Data were analysed from the European Study on Cardiovascular Risk Prevention and Management in Usual Daily Practice (EURIKA, ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00882336), which included patients (aged ≥50 years) from 12 European countries with at least one traditional cardiovascular risk factor but no history of cardiovascular disease. Analysis was also carried out on the subset of patients without diabetes mellitus who were not receiving statin therapy. Results In the overall population, CRP levels were positively correlated with body mass index and glycated haemoglobin levels, and were negatively correlated with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. CRP levels were also higher in women, those at higher traditionally estimated cardiovascular risk and those with greater numbers of metabolic syndrome markers. Among patients without diabetes mellitus who were not receiving statin therapy, approximately 30% had CRP levels ≥3 mg/L, and approximately 50% had CRP levels ≥2 mg/L, including those at intermediate levels of traditionally estimated cardiovascular risk. Conclusions CRP levels are elevated in a large proportion of patients with at least one cardiovascular risk factor, without diabetes mellitus who are not receiving statin therapy, suggesting a higher level of cardiovascular risk than predicted according to conventional risk estimation systems. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00882336 PMID:24564178

  9. Comorbidities and cardiovascular risk factors in patients with psoriasis*

    PubMed Central

    Baeta, Isabela Guimarães Ribeiro; Bittencourt, Flávia Vasques; Gontijo, Bernardo; Goulart, Eugênio Marcos Andrade

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND Psoriasis is a chronic inflammatory disease and its pathogenesis involves an interaction between genetic, environmental, and immunological factors. Recent studies have suggested that the chronic inflammatory nature of psoriasis may predispose to an association with other inflammatory diseases, especially cardiovascular diseases and metabolic disorders. OBJECTIVES To describe the demographic, clinical, epidemiological, and laboratory characteristics of a sample of psoriasis patients; to assess the prevalence of cardiovascular comorbidities in this group of patients; and to identify the cardiovascular risk profile using the Framingham risk score. METHODS We conducted a cross-sectional study involving the assessment of 190 patients. Participants underwent history and physical examination. They also completed a specific questionnaire about epidemiological data, past medical history, and comorbidities. The cardiovascular risk profile was calculated using the Framingham risk score. RESULTS Patients' mean age was 51.5 ± 14 years, and the predominant clinical presentation was plaque psoriasis (78.4%). We found an increased prevalence of systemic hypertension, type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome, and obesity. Increased waist circumference was also found in addition to a considerable prevalence of depression, smoking, and regular alcohol intake. Patients' cardiovascular risk was high according to the Framingham risk score, and 47.2% of patients had moderate or high risk of fatal and non-fatal coronary events in 10 years. CONCLUSIONS Patients had high prevalence of cardiovascular comorbidities, and high cardiovascular risk according to the Framingham risk score. Further epidemiological studies are needed in Brazil for validation of our results. PMID:25184912

  10. Breast Arterial Calcification: a New Marker of Cardiovascular Risk?

    PubMed

    Iribarren, Carlos; Molloi, Sabee

    2013-04-01

    Mammographically-detected breast arterial calcifications (BAC) are considered to be an incidental finding without clinical importance since they are not associated with increased risk of breast cancer. The goal of this article is to review existing evidence that the presence of BAC on mammography correlates with several (but not all) traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and with prevalent and incident CVD. Thus, BAC detected during routine mammography is a noteworthy finding that could be valuable in identifying asymptomatic women at increased future CVD risk that may be candidates for more aggressive management. In addition, there are notable differences in measures of subclinical atherosclerosis burden in women (ie, coronary artery calcification) by race/ethnic background, and the same appears to be true for BAC, although data are very limited. Another noteworthy limitation of prior research on BAC is the reliance on absence vs presence of BAC; no study to date has determined gradation of BAC. Further research is thus required to elucidate the role of BAC gradation in the prediction of CVD outcomes and to determine whether adding BAC gradation to prediction models based on traditional risk factors improves classification of CVD risk.

  11. Biomarkers for cardiovascular risk assessment in autoimmune diseases.

    PubMed

    Teixeira, Priscila Camillo; Ferber, Philippe; Vuilleumier, Nicolas; Cutler, Paul

    2015-02-01

    Autoimmune diseases, such as antiphospholipid syndrome, systemic lupus erythematosus, and rheumatoid arthritis, are characterized by a high prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) disease (CVD), which constitutes the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among such patients. Although such effects are partly explained by a higher prevalence of traditional CV risk factors, many studies indicate that such factors do not fully explain the enhanced CV risk in these patients. In addition, risk stratification algorithms based upon traditional CV risk factors are not as predictive in autoimmune diseases as in the general population. For these reasons, the timely and accurate assessment of CV risk in these high-risk populations still remains an unmet clinical need. An enhanced contribution of different inflammatory components of the immune response, as well as autoimmune elements (e.g. autoantibodies, autoantigens, and cellular response), has been proposed to underlie the incremental CV risk observed in these populations. Recent advances in proteomic tools have contributed to the discovery of proteins involved in CVDs, including some that may be suitable to be used as biological markers. In this review we summarize the main markers in the field of CVDs associated with autoimmunity, as well as the recent advances in proteomic technology and their application for biomarker discovery in autoimmune disease.

  12. A four-year cardiovascular risk score for type 2 diabetic inpatients

    PubMed Central

    Ramírez-Prado, Dolores; Folgado-de la Rosa, David Manuel; Carbonell-Torregrosa, María Ángeles; Martínez-Díaz, Ana María; Martínez-St. John, Damian Robert James; Gil-Guillén, Vicente Francisco

    2015-01-01

    As cardiovascular risk tables currently in use were constructed using data from the general population, the cardiovascular risk of patients admitted via the hospital emergency department may be underestimated. Accordingly, we constructed a predictive model for the appearance of cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department. We undertook a four-year follow-up of a cohort of 112 adult patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department for any cause except patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer, or a palliative status. The sample was selected randomly between 2010 and 2012. The primary outcome was time to cardiovascular disease. Other variables (at baseline) were gender, age, heart failure, renal failure, depression, asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, insulin, smoking, admission for cardiovascular causes, pills per day, walking habit, fasting blood glucose and creatinine. A cardiovascular risk table was constructed based on the score to estimate the likelihood of cardiovascular disease. Risk groups were established and the c-statistic was calculated. Over a mean follow-up of 2.31 years, 39 patients had cardiovascular disease (34.8%, 95% CI [26.0–43.6%]). Predictive factors were gender, age, hypertension, renal failure, insulin, admission due to cardiovascular reasons and walking habit. The c-statistic was 0.734 (standard error: 0.049). After validation, this study will provide a tool for the primary health care services to enable the short-term prediction of cardiovascular disease after hospital discharge in patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department. PMID:26056618

  13. Genetic predisposition to higher blood pressure increases risk of incident hypertension and cardiovascular diseases in Chinese.

    PubMed

    Lu, Xiangfeng; Huang, Jianfeng; Wang, Laiyuan; Chen, Shufeng; Yang, Xueli; Li, Jianxin; Cao, Jie; Chen, Jichun; Li, Ying; Zhao, Liancheng; Li, Hongfan; Liu, Fangcao; Huang, Chen; Shen, Chong; Shen, Jinjin; Yu, Ling; Xu, Lihua; Mu, Jianjun; Wu, Xianping; Ji, Xu; Guo, Dongshuang; Zhou, Zhengyuan; Yang, Zili; Wang, Renping; Yang, Jun; Yan, Weili; Gu, Dongfeng

    2015-10-01

    Although multiple genetic markers associated with blood pressure have been identified by genome-wide association studies, their aggregate effect on risk of incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease is uncertain, particularly among East Asian who may have different genetic and environmental exposures from Europeans. We aimed to examine the association between genetic predisposition to higher blood pressure and risk of incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease in 26 262 individuals in 2 Chinese population-based prospective cohorts. A genetic risk score was calculated based on 22 established variants for blood pressure in East Asian. We found the genetic risk score was significantly and independently associated with linear increases in blood pressure and risk of incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease (P range from 4.57×10(-3) to 3.10×10(-6)). In analyses adjusted for traditional risk factors including blood pressure, individuals carrying most blood pressure-related risk alleles (top quintile of genetic score distribution) had 40% (95% confidence interval, 18-66) and 26% (6-45) increased risk for incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease, respectively, when compared with individuals in the bottom quintile. The genetic risk score also significantly improved discrimination for incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease and led to modest improvements in risk reclassification for cardiovascular disease (all the P<0.05). Our data indicate that genetic predisposition to higher blood pressure is an independent risk factor for blood pressure increase and incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease and provides modest incremental information to cardiovascular disease risk prediction. The potential clinical use of this panel of blood pressure-associated polymorphisms remains to be determined. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  14. Lifestyle decreases risk factors for cardiovascular diseases.

    PubMed

    Slavícek, Jaroslav; Kittnar, Otomar; Fraser, Gary E; Medová, Eva; Konecná, Jana; Zizka, Robert; Dohnalová, Alena; Novák, Vladimir

    2008-12-01

    The morbidity and mortality of cardiovascular diseases is high in the developed countries. The lifestyle changes are capable to decrease it by 50%. The aim of the present study was to measure the parameters of some risk factors before and after a one-week NEW START rehabilitative retreat. 1349 volunteers, 320 men, 1029 woman, mean age 51 +/- 14.5 (SD) years participated in 30 rehabilitative retreats from 1999-2006 in the Czech Republic, using a low-fat, low-energy, lacto-ovo-vegetarian diet and exercise, in a stress-free environment. Body weight, height, BMI, blood pressure, heart rate, serum cholesterol and blood glucose were measured. Body weight decreased in 1223 measured persons from 71.2 +/- 14.38 (SD) to 70.6 +/- 14.02 kg (p<0.0001), BMI (1,046 measured persons) from 25.1 +/- 4.60 (SD) to 24.8+4.49 (SD) kg/m2 (p<0.0001), systolic blood pressure (1,218 persons) from 129.8 +/- 23.02 (SD) to 123.8 +/- 21.52 (SD) mmHg (p<0.0001), diastolic blood pressure (1210 persons) from 79.8 +/- 12.7 (SD) to 77.5 +/- 11.6 (SD) mmHg (p<0.0001), serum cholesterol (998 persons) from 4.86 +/- 0.95 (SD) to 4.32 +/- 0.77 (SD) mmol (p<0.0001), blood glucose (544 persons) from 4.31 +/- 1.59 (SD) to 3.88 +/- 1.33 (SD) mmol (p<0.0001). Heart rate was not significantly decreased. The parameters were lower in lacto-ovo vegetarians and Seventh-day Adventists than in controls who never observed the diet and avail the lifestyle programs. The parameters were nonsignificantly changed one year after finishing the retreat in the sample of 68 persons showing the positive effect of retreats. Our results showed, that the intake of a low-fat, low-energy diet, over the course of one week in a stress-free environment, had positive impact on the risk factors of cardiovascular diseases.

  15. Prognostic Value of Stress Echocardiography in Patients With Low-Intermediate or High Short-Term (10 Years) Versus Low (<39%) or High (≥39%) Lifetime Predicted Risk of Cardiovascular Disease According to the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association 2013 Cardiovascular Risk Calculator.

    PubMed

    Yao, Siu-Sun; Supariwala, Azhar; Yao, Amanda; Dukkipati, Sai Sreenija; Wyne, Jamshad; Chaudhry, Farooq A

    2015-09-01

    This study evaluates the prognostic value of stress echocardiography (Secho) in short-term (10 years) and lifetime atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk-defined groups according to the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association 2013 cardiovascular risk calculator. The ideal risk assessment and management of patients with low-to-intermediate or high short-term versus low (<39%) or high (≥39%) lifetime CV risk is unclear. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of Secho in short-term and lifetime CV risk-defined groups. We evaluated 4,566 patients (60 ± 13 years; 46% men) who underwent Secho (41% treadmill and 59% dobutamine) with low-intermediate short-term (<20%) risk divided into low (<39%, n = 368) or high (≥39%, n = 661) lifetime CV risk and third group with high short-term risk (≥20%, n = 3,537). Follow-up (3.2 ± 1.5 years) for nonfatal myocardial infarction (n = 102) and cardiac death (n = 140) were obtained. By univariate analysis, age (p <0.001) and ≥3 new ischemic wall motion abnormalities (WMAs, p <0.001) were significant predictors of cardiac events. Cumulative survival in patients was significantly worse in patients with ≥3 WMA versus <3 WMA in low-intermediate short-term and low (3.3% vs 0.3% per year, p <0.001) or high (2.0% vs 0% per year, p <0.001) lifetime risk and also in those with high short-term CV risk group (3.5% vs 1.0% per year, p <0.001). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis identified ≥3 new ischemic WMAs as the strongest predictor of cardiac events (hazard ratio 3.0, 95% confidence interval 2.3 to 3.9, p <0.001). In conclusion, Secho results (absence or presence of ≥3 new ischemic segments) can further refine risk assessment in patients with low-intermediate or high short-term versus low or high lifetime cardiovascular risk. Event rate with normal Secho is low (≤1% per year) but higher in patients with high short-term CV risk by the American College of

  16. Inflammation, Infection, and Future Cardiovascular Risk

    ClinicalTrials.gov

    2016-03-15

    Cardiovascular Diseases; Coronary Disease; Cerebrovascular Accident; Myocardial Infarction; Venous Thromboembolism; Heart Diseases; Infection; Chlamydia Infections; Cytomegalovirus Infections; Helicobacter Infections; Herpesviridae Infections; Inflammation

  17. A novel risk classification paradigm for patients with impaired glucose tolerance and high cardiovascular risk.

    PubMed

    Bethel, M Angelyn; Chacra, Antonio R; Deedwania, Prakash; Fulcher, Gregory R; Holman, Rury R; Jenssen, Trond; Kahn, Steven E; Levitt, Naomi S; McMurray, John J V; Califf, Robert M; Raptis, Sotirios A; Thomas, Laine; Sun, Jie-Lena; Haffner, Steven M

    2013-07-15

    We used baseline data from the NAVIGATOR trial to (1) identify risk factors for diabetes progression in those with impaired glucose tolerance and high cardiovascular risk, (2) create models predicting 5-year incident diabetes, and (3) provide risk classification tools to guide clinical interventions. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models estimated 5-year incident diabetes risk and simplified models examined the relative importance of measures of glycemia in assessing diabetes risk. The C-statistic was used to compare models; reclassification analyses compare the models' ability to identify risk groups defined by potential therapies (routine or intensive lifestyle advice or pharmacologic therapy). Diabetes developed in 3,254 (35%) participants over 5 years median follow-up. The full prediction model included fasting and 2-hour glucose and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) values but demonstrated only moderate discrimination for diabetes (C = 0.70). Simplified models with only fasting glucose (C = 0.67) or oral glucose tolerance test values (C = 0.68) had higher C statistics than models with HbA1c alone (C = 0.63). The models were unlikely to inappropriately reclassify participants to risk groups that might receive pharmacologic therapy. Our results confirm that in a population with dysglycemia and high cardiovascular risk, traditional risk factors are appropriate predictors and glucose values are better predictors than HbA1c, but discrimination is moderate at best, illustrating the challenges of predicting diabetes in a high-risk population. In conclusion, our novel risk classification paradigm based on potential treatment could be used to guide clinical practice based on cost and availability of screening tests. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. [Cardiovascular risk profiles by occupation in Madrid region, Spain].

    PubMed

    Zimmermann Verdejo, Marta; González Gómez, María Fernanda; Galán Labaca, Iñaki

    2010-01-01

    It is well known the association between cardiovascular risks and life styles. In addition, all these factors could be strongly associated with working conditions. The aim of this study was to describe the association between some cardiovascular risk factors and occupations in order to define strategies focused on health promotion at workplace. 16.048 questionnaires were analysed from the Surveillance System for Non-transmissible Diseases Risk Factors (SIVFRENT) for Madrid region. The surveys of eight consecutive years (2000-2007) were aggregated and analysed. Seven risk factors for cardiovascular diseases were studied (diet, overweight, sedentary work, physical activity, alcohol and tobacco consumption and high blood pressure). An indicator of exposure was created based on these seven risk factors. The association between cardiovascular risk factors and occupations was calculated for age and gender effects adjustment. Sedentary work (prevalence: 44,2%) and tobacco consumption (prevalence: 33,1%) were the most common risk factors found . To accumulate more than two cardiovascular risk factors was statistically higher in men (27,4%) than in women (15%). The highest risk was found for tree occupations: Drivers (OR:1,78; 95% CI:1,45-2,18), Administrative secretaries (OR:1,83; 95% CI:1,64-2,05) and Direction managers(OR:1,25; 95% CI:1,09-1,44). Drives, Secretaries and Managers seem to have a higher vulnerability for some cardiovascular risk factors.

  19. Multiple Biomarkers for the Prediction of First Major Cardiovascular Events and Death

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Few investigations have evaluated the incremental usefulness of multiple biomarkers from distinct biologic pathways for predicting the risk of cardiovascular events. We measured 10 biomarkers in 3209 participants attending a routine examination cycle of the Framingham Heart Study: the levels of C-r...

  20. Comparison of lifestyle-based and traditional cardiovascular disease prediction in a multiethnic cohort of nonsmoking women.

    PubMed

    Paynter, Nina P; LaMonte, Michael J; Manson, JoAnn E; Martin, Lisa W; Phillips, Lawrence S; Ridker, Paul M; Robinson, Jennifer G; Cook, Nancy R

    2014-10-21

    Healthy levels of lifestyle factors can reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. However, except for smoking status, often considered a traditional risk factor, their effect on cardiovascular risk prediction is unclear. We used a case-cohort design of postmenopausal nonsmokers in the multiethnic Women's Health Initiative Observational Study (1587 cases and 1808 subcohort participants) with a median follow-up of 10 years in noncases. Compared with nonsmokers with no other healthy lifestyle factors (healthy diet, recreational physical activity, moderate alcohol use, and low adiposity), the risk of cardiovascular disease was lower for each additional factor (hazard ratio for trend, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.89), with a 45% reduction in risk with all factors (95% confidence interval, 0.36-0.84). When lifestyle factors were added to traditional risk factor models (variables from the Pooled Cohort and Reynolds risk scores), only recreational physical activity remained independently associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease. The addition of detailed lifestyle measures to traditional models showed a change in the integrated discrimination improvement and continuous net reclassification improvement (P<0.01 for both) but had little impact on more clinically relevant risk stratification measures. Although lifestyle factors have important effects on cardiovascular disease risk factors and subsequent risk, their addition to established cardiovascular disease risk models does not result in clear improvement in overall prediction. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

  1. Testosterone in men with hypogonadism and high cardiovascular risk, Pros.

    PubMed

    Rosano, Giuseppe M C; Vitale, Cristiana; Fini, Massimo

    2015-11-01

    Although numerous randomized studies have shown that testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) improves intermediate outcomes in patients at risk and in those with proven cardiovascular disease (CVD), results derived mainly from registries and observational studies have suggested an increased cardiovascular risk in elderly men receiving often supra-therapeutic doses of testosterone. Recent meta-analyses have shown that when testosterone has been used in patients with pre-existing cardiovascular conditions, the effect on the disease has been either beneficial or neutral. Similar results have been reported in hypo- and eugonadal men. Contrasting results have been reported by two trials of testosterone treatment in frail elderly men. Reports from poorly analyzed databases have reported an increased risk of cardiovascular events with testosterone use. More recently, a population-based study showed no increased cardiovascular risk of testosterone replacement in hypogonadal men. Available data from controlled clinical trials suggest that the use of testosterone in elderly men does not increase cardiovascular risk nor the risk of events. Studies in men with CVD, angina, or heart failure report a benefit from testosterone replacement in men with or without hypogonadism. Therefore, at present, the cardiovascular benefits of TRT in elderly men outweigh the risks. This is particularly evident in those men with pre-existing CVD.

  2. High plasma omentin predicts cardiovascular events independently from the presence and extent of angiographically determined atherosclerosis.

    PubMed

    Saely, Christoph H; Leiherer, Andreas; Muendlein, Axel; Vonbank, Alexander; Rein, Philipp; Geiger, Kathrin; Malin, Cornelia; Drexel, Heinz

    2016-01-01

    No prospective data on the power of the adipocytokine omentin to predict cardiovascular events are available. We aimed at investigating i) the association of plasma omentin with cardiometabolic risk markers, ii) its association with angiographically determined coronary atherosclerosis, and iii) its power to predict cardiovascular events. We measured plasma omentin in 295 patients undergoing coronary angiography for the evaluation of established or suspected stable coronary artery disease (CAD), of whom 161 had significant CAD with coronary artery stenoses ≥50% and 134 did not have significant CAD. Over 3.5 years, 17.6% of our patients suffered cardiovascular events, corresponding to an annual event rate of 5.0%. At baseline, plasma omentin was not significantly associated with metabolic syndrome stigmata and did not differ significantly between patients with and subjects without significant CAD (17.2 ± 13.6 ng/ml vs. 17.5 ± 15.1 ng/ml; p = 0.783). Prospectively, however, cardiovascular event risk significantly increased over tertiles of omentin (12.1%, 13.8%, and 29.5%, for tertiles 1 through 3; ptrend = 0.003), and omentin as a continuous variable significantly predicted cardiovascular events after adjustment for age, gender, BMI, diabetes, hypertension, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, and smoking (standardized adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.41 [95% CI 1.16-1.72]; p < 0.001), as well as after additional adjustment for the presence and extent of significant CAD at baseline (HR 1.59 [95% CI 1.29-1.97, p < 0.001). From this first prospective evaluation of the cardiovascular risk associated with omentin we conclude that elevated plasma omentin significantly predicts cardiovascular events independently from the presence and extent of angiographically determined baseline CAD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Metabolic Syndrome, Endothelial Dysfunction, and Risk of Cardiovascular Events: the Northern Manhattan Study

    PubMed Central

    Suzuki, Takeki; Hirata, Kumiko; Elkind, Mitchell S.V.; Jin, Zhezhen; Rundek, Tanja; Miyake, Yumiko; Boden-Albala, Bernadette; Di Tullio, Marco R.; Sacco, Ralph; Homma, Shunichi

    2008-01-01

    Background Metabolic syndrome (MetS) predisposes to cardiovascular disease. Endothelial dysfunction is thought to be an important factor in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis. We tested the hypothesis that both MetS and endothelial dysfunction are vascular risk factors and provide additive prognostic values in predicting cardiovascular events in a multi-ethnic community sample. Methods The study population consisted of 819 subjects (467 female, mean age 66.5±8.8 years, 66% Hispanic) enrolled in the Northern Manhattan Study. MetS was defined using the revised Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. Brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD) was measured using high-resolution ultrasound. Endothelial dysfunction was defined as FMD < 8.44% (lower three quartiles). Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the effect of MetS and endothelial dysfunction on risk of cardiovascular events. Results During 81±21 months of follow-up, events occurred in 84 subjects. MetS was independently associated with cardiovascular events in a multivariate model including cardiovascular risk factors (adjusted HR 2.08, 95% CI 1.27–3.40). Subjects with both MetS and endothelial dysfunction were at higher risk for cardiovascular events than those with either one of them alone (adjusted HR 2.60, 95% CI 1.14–5.92). Conclusions MetS is associated with incident cardiovascular events. Combined use of MetS and FMD identifies those who are at higher risk of cardiovascular events. MetS and non-invasive FMD testing can be used concurrently for cardiovascular risk prediction. PMID:18657678

  4. Emerging Risk Biomarkers in Cardiovascular Diseases and Disorders

    PubMed Central

    Upadhyay, Ravi Kant

    2015-01-01

    Present review article highlights various cardiovascular risk prediction biomarkers by incorporating both traditional risk factors to be used as diagnostic markers and recent technologically generated diagnostic and therapeutic markers. This paper explains traditional biomarkers such as lipid profile, glucose, and hormone level and physiological biomarkers based on measurement of levels of important biomolecules such as serum ferritin, triglyceride to HDLp (high density lipoproteins) ratio, lipophorin-cholesterol ratio, lipid-lipophorin ratio, LDL cholesterol level, HDLp and apolipoprotein levels, lipophorins and LTPs ratio, sphingolipids, Omega-3 Index, and ST2 level. In addition, immunohistochemical, oxidative stress, inflammatory, anatomical, imaging, genetic, and therapeutic biomarkers have been explained in detail with their investigational specifications. Many of these biomarkers, alone or in combination, can play important role in prediction of risks, its types, and status of morbidity. As emerging risks are found to be affiliated with minor and microlevel factors and its diagnosis at an earlier stage could find CVD, hence, there is an urgent need of new more authentic, appropriate, and reliable diagnostic and therapeutic markers to confirm disease well in time to start the clinical aid to the patients. Present review aims to discuss new emerging biomarkers that could facilitate more authentic and fast diagnosis of CVDs, HF (heart failures), and various lipid abnormalities and disorders in the future. PMID:25949827

  5. Cardiovascular risk factors in scholars (RIVACANGAS).

    PubMed

    Mera-Gallego, Rocío; García-Rodríguez, Patricia; Fernández-Cordeiro, Marta; Rodríguez-Reneda, Ángeles; Vérez-Cotelo, Natalia; Andrés-Rodríguez, N Floro; Fornos-Pérez, J Antonio; Rica-Echevarría, Itxaso

    2016-12-01

    The current guidelines for treatment of high blood pressure do not include any section dedicated to hypertension in children and adolescents or to cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention strategies in that age group. Our study was aimed at identifying cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) in an adolescent sample. A cross-sectional study of a sample of adolescents aged 12 to 17years (n=630), conducted from October 2014 to February 2015 in four schools in Cangas do Morrazo (Pontevedra). Sociodemographic variables: age, sex, personal and family history of hypertension and diabetes (DM). Anthropometric variables: body mass index (BMI, kg/m(2)), waist circumference (WC, cm), waist/height index (WHI), blood pressure (mmHg). The study sample consisted of 295 female and 335 male adolescents (mean age: 13.8±1.4). CVR-related conditions: hypercholesterolemia (7.1%), CVD (1.7%), hypertension (0.8%) and diabetes (0.3%). BMI (22.0±3,8) was higher in males (22.4±3.8 vs. 21.0±3.2; P<.01). Overweight was greater in females (27.6% vs. 19.7%; P<.05). Seven percent of subjects were obese, 63.8% had systolic BP >P90 and 23.7% had diastolic BP >P90. Waist circumference positively correlated with age (r=0.1669; P<.0001) and was greater in males (75.4±10.9 vs. 72.9±8.9; P<0.01); 27.1% of adolescents had a waist circumference >P75, and 7.5% >P90. Eighty-four (13.3%) adolescents had two CVRFs (overweight+another). Despite their young age, more than 10% of school children had two CVRFs. Abnormal SBP levels were seen in more than 50%, 20% were overweight, and only 75% had normal waist circumference values. Copyright © 2016 SEEN. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  6. Cardiovascular risk factors in patients with asymptomatic primary hyperparathyroidism.

    PubMed

    García-Martín, Antonia; Reyes-García, Rebeca; García-Castro, José Miguel; Quesada-Charneco, Miguel; Escobar-Jiménez, Fernando; Muñoz-Torres, Manuel

    2014-12-01

    Patients with primary hyperparathyroidism (PHP), even asymptomatic, have an increased cardiovascular risk. However, data on reversibility or improvement of cardiovascular disorders with surgery are controversial. Our aims were to assess the prevalence of classic cardiovascular risk factors in patients with asymptomatic PHP, to explore their relationship with calcium and PTH levels, and analyze the effect of parathyroidectomy on those cardiovascular risk factors. A retrospective, observational study of two groups of patients with asymptomatic PHP: 40 patients on observation and 33 patients who underwent surgery. Clinical and biochemical data related to PHP and various cardiovascular risk factors were collected from all patients at baseline and one year after surgery in the operated patients. A high prevalence of obesity (59.9%), type 2 diabetes mellitus (25%), high blood pressure (47.2%), and dyslipidemia (44.4%) was found in the total sample, with no difference between the study groups. Serum calcium and PTH levels positively correlated with BMI (r=.568, P=.011, and r=.509, P=.026 respectively) in non-operated patients. One year after parathyroidectomy, no improvement occurred in the cardiovascular risk factors considered. Our results confirm the high prevalence of obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus, high blood pressure, and dyslipidemia in patients with asymptomatic PHP. However, parathyroidectomy did not improve these cardiovascular risk factors. Copyright © 2014 SEEN. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  7. Cardiovascular risk factor knowledge and risk perception among HIV-infected adults

    PubMed Central

    Cioe, Patricia A.; Crawford, Sybil L.; Stein, Michael D.

    2013-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has emerged as a major cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected adults. Research in non-infected populations has suggested that knowledge of CVD risk factors significantly influences perceptions of risk. This cross-sectional study describes CVD risk factor knowledge and risk perception in HIV-infected adults. We recruited 130 HIV-infected adults (mean age = 48 years, 62% male, 56% current smokers, mean years since HIV diagnosis, 14.7). The mean CVD risk factor knowledge score was fairly high. However, controlling for age, CVD risk factor knowledge was not predictive of perceived risk (F[1,117] = 0.13, p > .05). Estimated risk and perceived risk were weakly, but significantly, correlated, r(126) = .24, p = .01. HIV-infected adults are at increased risk for CVD. Despite having adequate risk factor knowledge, CVD risk perception was inaccurate. Improving risk perception and developing CVD risk reduction interventions for this population are imperative. PMID:24070645

  8. The ERICE-score: the new native cardiovascular score for the low-risk and aged Mediterranean population of Spain.

    PubMed

    Gabriel, Rafael; Brotons, Carlos; Tormo, M José; Segura, Antonio; Rigo, Fernando; Elosua, Roberto; Carbayo, Julio A; Gavrila, Diana; Moral, Irene; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Muñiz, Javier

    2015-03-01

    In Spain, data based on large population-based cohorts adequate to provide an accurate prediction of cardiovascular risk have been scarce. Thus, calibration of the EuroSCORE and Framingham scores has been proposed and done for our population. The aim was to develop a native risk prediction score to accurately estimate the individual cardiovascular risk in the Spanish population. Seven Spanish population-based cohorts including middle-aged and elderly participants were assembled. There were 11800 people (6387 women) representing 107915 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1214 cardiovascular events were identified, of which 633 were fatal. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of the different variables to the 10-year total cardiovascular risk. Age was the strongest cardiovascular risk factor. High systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and smoking were strong predictive factors. The contribution of serum total cholesterol was small. Antihypertensive treatment also had a significant impact on cardiovascular risk, greater in men than in women. The model showed a good discriminative power (C-statistic=0.789 in men and C=0.816 in women). Ten-year risk estimations are displayed graphically in risk charts separately for men and women. The ERICE is a new native cardiovascular risk score for the Spanish population derived from the background and contemporaneous risk of several Spanish cohorts. The ERICE score offers the direct and reliable estimation of total cardiovascular risk, taking in consideration the effect of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factor management. The ERICE score is a practical and useful tool for clinicians to estimate the total individual cardiovascular risk in Spain. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  9. Awareness of Individual Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Self-Perception of Cardiovascular Risk in Women.

    PubMed

    Monsuez, Jean-Jacques; Pham, Tai; Karam, Nicole; Amar, Laurence; Chicheportiche-Ayache, Corinne; Menasché, Philippe; Desnos, Michel; Dardel, Paul; Weill, Isabelle

    2017-09-01

    Cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) self-perception by women may be inaccurate. A questionnaire was completed anonymously Online by women who self-reported their personal CVRF levels including age, weight, contraceptive use, menopausal status, smoking, diet and physical activities. Self-perceived risk was matched to actual cardiovascular risk according to the Framingham score. Among 5,240 young and middle-aged women with a high educational level, knowledge of personal CVRFs increased with age, from 51-90% for blood pressure (BP), 22-45% for blood glucose and 15-47% for blood cholesterol levels, between 30 and 65 years, respectively. This knowledge was lower for smoking compared with nonsmoking women: 62.5% vs. 74.5% for BP (P < 0.001), 22.7% vs. 33.8% for blood glucose (P < 0.001), 21.9% vs. 32.0% for cholesterol levels (P < 0.001). Knowledge of BP level was reduced among women using an estrogen-progestogen contraception (56.8% vs. 62.1%, P = 0.0031) and even more reduced among smokers (52.2%, P < 0.001). Conversely, women with leisure-time physical or sportive activity (60.5%), were less overweight or obese (22.4% vs. 34.2%, P < 0.001). They reported better knowledge of BP (72.4% vs. 68.3%, P < 0.001), blood cholesterol (31.1% vs. 26.4%, P < 0.001) and glucose levels (32.7% vs. 27.8%, P < 0.001). Self-perceived cardiovascular risk was rated low by 1,279 (20.4%), moderate by 3,710 (63.3%) and high by 893 (16.3%) women. Among 3,386 women tested using the Framingham score, 40.8% were at low, 25.2% at moderate and 33.8% at high risk. Knowledge of CVRFs and self-perception of individual risk are inaccurate in women. Educational interventions should be emphasized. Copyright © 2017 Southern Society for Clinical Investigation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Association Between Living in Food Deserts and Cardiovascular Risk.

    PubMed

    Kelli, Heval M; Hammadah, Muhammad; Ahmed, Hina; Ko, Yi-An; Topel, Matthew; Samman-Tahhan, Ayman; Awad, Mossab; Patel, Keyur; Mohammed, Kareem; Sperling, Laurence S; Pemu, Priscilla; Vaccarino, Viola; Lewis, Tene; Taylor, Herman; Martin, Greg; Gibbons, Gary H; Quyyumi, Arshed A

    2017-09-01

    Food deserts (FD), neighborhoods defined as low-income areas with low access to healthy food, are a public health concern. We evaluated the impact of living in FD on cardiovascular risk factors and subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) with the hypothesis that people living in FD will have an unfavorable CVD risk profile. We further assessed whether the impact of FD on these measures is driven by area income, individual household income, or area access to healthy food. We studied 1421 subjects residing in the Atlanta metropolitan area who participated in the META-Health study (Morehouse and Emory Team up to Eliminate Health Disparities; n=712) and the Predictive Health study (n=709). Participants' zip codes were entered into the United States Food Access Research Atlas for FD status. Demographic data, metabolic profiles, hs-CRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) levels, oxidative stress markers (glutathione and cystine), and arterial stiffness were evaluated. Mean age was 49.4 years, 38.5% male and 36.6% black. Compared with those not living in FD, subjects living in FD (n=187, 13.2%) had a higher prevalence of hypertension and smoking, higher body mass index, fasting glucose, and 10-year risk for CVD. They also had higher hs-CRP (P=0.014), higher central augmentation index (P=0.015), and lower glutathione level (P=0.003), indicative of increased oxidative stress. Area income and individual income, rather than food access, were associated with CVD risk measures. In a multivariate analysis that included food access, area income and individual income, both low-income area and low individual household income, were independent predictors of a higher 10-year risk for CVD. Only low individual income was an independent predictor of higher hs-CRP and augmentation index. Although living in FD is associated with a higher burden of cardiovascular risk factors and preclinical indices of CVD, these associations are mainly driven by area income and individual income rather

  11. Cardiovascular risk estimation in women with a history of hypertensive pregnancy disorders at term: a longitudinal follow-up study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular disease is associated with major morbidity and mortality in women in the Western world. Prediction of an individual cardiovascular disease risk in young women is difficult. It is known that women with hypertensive pregnancy complications have an increased risk for developing cardiovascular disease in later life and pregnancy might be used as a cardiovascular stress test to identify women who are at high risk for cardiovascular disease. In this study we assess the possibility of long term cardiovascular risk prediction in women with a history of hypertensive pregnancy disorders at term. Methods In a longitudinal follow-up study, between June 2008 and November 2010, 300 women with a history of hypertensive pregnancy disorders at term (HTP cohort) and 94 women with a history of normotensive pregnancies at term (NTP cohort) were included. From the cardiovascular risk status that was known two years after index pregnancy we calculated individual (extrapolated) 10-and 30-year cardiovascular event risks using four different risk prediction models including the Framingham risk score, the SCORE score and the Reynolds risk score. Continuous data were analyzed using the Student’s T test and Mann–Whitney U test and categorical data by the Chi-squared test. A poisson regression analysis was performed to calculate the incidence risk ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals for the different cardiovascular risk estimation categories. Results After a mean follow-up of 2.5 years, HTP women had significantly higher mean (SD) extrapolated 10-year cardiovascular event risks (HTP 7.2% (3.7); NTP 4.4% (1.9) (p<.001, IRR 5.8, 95% CI 1.9 to 19)) and 30-year cardiovascular event risks (HTP 11% (7.6); NTP 7.3% (3.5) (p<.001, IRR 2.7, 95% CI 1.6 to 4.5)) as compared to NTP women calculated by the Framingham risk scores. The SCORE score and the Reynolds risk score showed similar significant results. Conclusions Women with a history of gestational

  12. Cardiovascular risk estimation in women with a history of hypertensive pregnancy disorders at term: a longitudinal follow-up study.

    PubMed

    Hermes, Wietske; Tamsma, Jouke T; Grootendorst, Diana C; Franx, Arie; van der Post, Joris; van Pampus, Maria G; Bloemenkamp, Kitty Wm; Porath, Martina; Mol, Ben W; de Groot, Christianne J M

    2013-06-04

    Cardiovascular disease is associated with major morbidity and mortality in women in the Western world. Prediction of an individual cardiovascular disease risk in young women is difficult. It is known that women with hypertensive pregnancy complications have an increased risk for developing cardiovascular disease in later life and pregnancy might be used as a cardiovascular stress test to identify women who are at high risk for cardiovascular disease. In this study we assess the possibility of long term cardiovascular risk prediction in women with a history of hypertensive pregnancy disorders at term. In a longitudinal follow-up study, between June 2008 and November 2010, 300 women with a history of hypertensive pregnancy disorders at term (HTP cohort) and 94 women with a history of normotensive pregnancies at term (NTP cohort) were included. From the cardiovascular risk status that was known two years after index pregnancy we calculated individual (extrapolated) 10-and 30-year cardiovascular event risks using four different risk prediction models including the Framingham risk score, the SCORE score and the Reynolds risk score. Continuous data were analyzed using the Student's T test and Mann-Whitney U test and categorical data by the Chi-squared test. A poisson regression analysis was performed to calculate the incidence risk ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals for the different cardiovascular risk estimation categories. After a mean follow-up of 2.5 years, HTP women had significantly higher mean (SD) extrapolated 10-year cardiovascular event risks (HTP 7.2% (3.7); NTP 4.4% (1.9) (p<.001, IRR 5.8, 95% CI 1.9 to 19)) and 30-year cardiovascular event risks (HTP 11% (7.6); NTP 7.3% (3.5) (p<.001, IRR 2.7, 95% CI 1.6 to 4.5)) as compared to NTP women calculated by the Framingham risk scores. The SCORE score and the Reynolds risk score showed similar significant results. Women with a history of gestational hypertension or preeclampsia at term have higher

  13. Obesity and Cardiovascular Disease: a Risk Factor or a Risk Marker?

    PubMed

    Mandviwala, Taher; Khalid, Umair; Deswal, Anita

    2016-05-01

    In the USA, 69 % of adults are either overweight or obese and 35 % are obese. Obesity is associated with an increased incidence of various cardiovascular disorders. Obesity is a risk marker for cardiovascular disease, in that it is associated with a much higher prevalence of comorbidities such as diabetes, hypertension, and metabolic syndrome, which then increase the risk for cardiovascular disease. However, in addition, obesity may also be an independent risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease. Furthermore, although obesity has been shown to be an independent risk factor for several cardiovascular diseases, it is often associated with improved survival once the diagnosis of the cardiovascular disease has been made, leading to the term "obesity paradox." Several pathways linking obesity and cardiovascular disease have been described. In this review, we attempt to summarize the complex relationship between obesity and cardiovascular disorders, in particular coronary atherosclerosis, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation.

  14. Childhood risk factors predict cardiovascular disease, impaired fasting glucose plus type 2 diabetes mellitus, and high blood pressure 26 years later at a mean age of 38 years: the Princeton-lipid research clinics follow-up study.

    PubMed

    Morrison, John A; Glueck, Charles J; Wang, Ping

    2012-04-01

    The objective was to assess whether pediatric risk factors predict cardiovascular disease (CVD), impaired fasting glucose (IFG) + type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and high blood pressure (HBP) in young adulthood. We performed a prospective follow-up of 909 public-parochial suburban schoolchildren first studied at ages 6 to 18 years and 26 years later at a mean age of 38 years. Pediatric triglycerides (TGs), blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, body mass index, and glucose above and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol below established pediatric cutoffs, along with race, cigarette smoking, family history of CVD, T2DM, and HBP, were assessed as determinants of young adult CVD, a composite variable including IFG + T2DM and HBP. By stepwise logistic regression, adult CVD (19 yes, 862 no) was associated with pediatric high TG (odds ratio [OR], 5.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3-14.7). High TG in pediatric probands with young adult CVD was familial and was associated with early CVD in their high-TG parents. Adult IFG + T2DM (114 yes, 535 no) was associated with parental T2DM (OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.38-3.6), high childhood glucose (OR, 4.43; 95% CI, 2-9.7), and childhood cigarette smoking (OR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.03-2.61). Adult HBP (133 yes, 475 no) was associated with pediatric high body mass index (OR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.7-4.3) and HBP (OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.5-4.3). Pediatric risk factors are significantly, independently related to young adult CVD, IFG + T2DM, and HBP. Identification of pediatric risk factors for CVD, IFG + T2DM, and HBP facilitates initiation of primary prevention programs to reduce development of adult CVD, IFG + T2DM, and HBP. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Cardiovascular disease risk in young people with type 1 diabetes.

    PubMed

    Snell-Bergeon, Janet K; Nadeau, Kristen

    2012-08-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most frequent cause of death in people with type 1 diabetes (T1D), despite modern advances in glycemic control and CVD risk factor modification. CVD risk identification is essential in this high-risk population, yet remains poorly understood. This review discusses the risk factors for CVD in young people with T1D, including hyperglycemia, traditional CVD risk factors (dyslipidemia, smoking, physical activity, hypertension), as well as novel risk factors such as insulin resistance, inflammation, and hypoglycemia. We present evidence that adverse changes in cardiovascular function, arterial compliance, and atherosclerosis are present even during adolescence in people with T1D, highlighting the need for earlier intervention. The methods for investigating cardiovascular risk are discussed and reviewed. Finally, we discuss the observational studies and clinical trials which have thus far attempted to elucidate the best targets for early intervention in order to reduce the burden of CVD in people with T1D.

  16. Emerging Cardiovascular Risk Research: Impact of Pets on Cardiovascular Risk Prevention

    PubMed Central

    Schreiner, Pamela J.

    2016-01-01

    Animals interact with humans in multiple ways, including as therapy and service animals, commercially as livestock, as wildlife, and in zoos. But the most common interaction is as companion animals in our homes, with an estimated 180 million cats and dogs living in US households. While pet ownership has been reported to have many health benefits, the findings are inconsistent. Cardiovascular risk factors such as lipids, glucose, obesity, and heart rate variability have improved, worsened, or remained the same in the limited number of studies considering companion animals. Physical activity increases have more consistently been linked with dog ownership, although whether this reflects antecedent motivation or direct benefit from the dog is unclear. Allergies and asthma also are variably linked to pet ownership and are confounded by family history of atopy and timing of exposure to pet dander. The benefits of companion animals are most likely to be through reduction in depression, anxiety, and social isolation, but these studies have been largely cross-sectional and may depend on degree of bonding of the owner with the animal. Positive relationships show measurably higher oxytocin with lower cortisol and alpha-amylase levels. Finally, pet ownership is also a marker of better socioeconomic status and family stability, and if companion animals are to provide cardiovascular risk benefit, the route should perhaps be through improved education and opportunity for ownership. PMID:27547289

  17. Emerging Cardiovascular Risk Research: Impact of Pets on Cardiovascular Risk Prevention.

    PubMed

    Schreiner, Pamela J

    2016-02-01

    Animals interact with humans in multiple ways, including as therapy and service animals, commercially as livestock, as wildlife, and in zoos. But the most common interaction is as companion animals in our homes, with an estimated 180 million cats and dogs living in US households. While pet ownership has been reported to have many health benefits, the findings are inconsistent. Cardiovascular risk factors such as lipids, glucose, obesity, and heart rate variability have improved, worsened, or remained the same in the limited number of studies considering companion animals. Physical activity increases have more consistently been linked with dog ownership, although whether this reflects antecedent motivation or direct benefit from the dog is unclear. Allergies and asthma also are variably linked to pet ownership and are confounded by family history of atopy and timing of exposure to pet dander. The benefits of companion animals are most likely to be through reduction in depression, anxiety, and social isolation, but these studies have been largely cross-sectional and may depend on degree of bonding of the owner with the animal. Positive relationships show measurably higher oxytocin with lower cortisol and alpha-amylase levels. Finally, pet ownership is also a marker of better socioeconomic status and family stability, and if companion animals are to provide cardiovascular risk benefit, the route should perhaps be through improved education and opportunity for ownership.

  18. Accelerated Aging Influences Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Rheumatoid Arthritis

    PubMed Central

    Crowson, Cynthia S.; Therneau, Terry M.; Davis, John M.; Roger, Véronique L.; Matteson, Eric L.; Gabriel, Sherine E.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To determine whether the impact of aging on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in the general population (as estimated by the Framingham risk score [FRS]) differs in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS A population-based inception cohort of Olmsted County, Minnesota residents aged ≥30 years who fulfilled 1987 ACR criteria for RA in 1988–2008 was assembled and followed until death, migration, or 7-1-2012. Data on CVD events were collected by medical record review. The 10-year FRS for CVD was calculated. Cox models adjusted for FRS were used to examine the influence of age on CVD risk. RESULTS The study included 563 patients with RA without prior CVD (mean age: 55 years, 72% women; 69% seropositive [i.e., rheumatoid factor and/or anti-citrullinated protein antibody positive]). During a mean follow-up of 8.2 years, 98 patients developed CVD (74 seropositive and 24 seronegative), but FRS predicted only 59.7 events (35.4 seropositive and 24.3 seronegative). The gap between observed and predicted CVD risk increased exponentially across age, and the age effect on CVD risk in seropositive RA was nearly double its effect in the general population with additional log(age) coefficients of 2.91 for women (p=0.002) and 2.06 for men (p=0.027). CONCLUSION Age exerts an exponentially increasing effect on CVD risk in seropositive RA, but no increased effect among seronegative patients. The causes of accelerated aging in patients with seropositive RA deserve further investigation. PMID:23818136

  19. Population Attributable Fraction for Cardiovascular Diseases Risk Factors in Selected Countries: A comparative study.

    PubMed

    Pirani, Narges; Khiavi, Farzad Faraji

    2017-03-01

    Cardiovascular diseases are the most common cause of death. The prevalence of cardiovascular diseases was reported to be 3,500 per 100,000. And it is predicted that these numbers will increase in the near future. By removing the main factors responsible for non-communicable diseases, cardiovascular disease can be prevented by 80%. The aim of this study was to compare the population attributable fraction for cardiovascular diseases' risk factors in Iran, USA and Spain. This study was a comparative study and the population consisted of Iran, USA and Spain. The required information was collected from printed and electronic documentations and articles published in reliable databases, in the period 2007-2015. The cardiovascular diseases' Population Attributable Risk or Fraction for blood pressure was calculated to be 11.37%, 54% and 60%, diabetes 7.32%, 13% and 18%, and high cholesterol 6.85%, 13% and 20%, for Iran, USA and Spain respectively. Among risk factors, blood pressure was the most relevant factor to cardiovascular disease. The risk factor for high blood pressure had a more population attributable fraction than other physiological factors in the development of cardiovascular disease. Hence, by implementing comprehensive health policies, educating healthy lifestyle, screening and finding related cases as well as conducting health promotion programs, these diseases can be prevented.

  20. Population Attributable Fraction for Cardiovascular Diseases Risk Factors in Selected Countries: A comparative study

    PubMed Central

    Pirani, Narges; Khiavi, Farzad Faraji

    2017-01-01

    Background: Cardiovascular diseases are the most common cause of death. The prevalence of cardiovascular diseases was reported to be 3,500 per 100,000. And it is predicted that these numbers will increase in the near future. By removing the main factors responsible for non-communicable diseases, cardiovascular disease can be prevented by 80%. Aim: The aim of this study was to compare the population attributable fraction for cardiovascular diseases’ risk factors in Iran, USA and Spain. Methods: This study was a comparative study and the population consisted of Iran, USA and Spain. The required information was collected from printed and electronic documentations and articles published in reliable databases, in the period 2007-2015. Results: The cardiovascular diseases’ Population Attributable Risk or Fraction for blood pressure was calculated to be 11.37%, 54% and 60%, diabetes 7.32%, 13% and 18%, and high cholesterol 6.85%, 13% and 20%, for Iran, USA and Spain respectively. Among risk factors, blood pressure was the most relevant factor to cardiovascular disease. Conclusions: The risk factor for high blood pressure had a more population attributable fraction than other physiological factors in the development of cardiovascular disease. Hence, by implementing comprehensive health policies, educating healthy lifestyle, screening and finding related cases as well as conducting health promotion programs, these diseases can be prevented. PMID:28484352

  1. Imaging of cardiovascular risk in patients with Turner's syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Marin, A.; Weir-McCall, J.R.; Webb, D.J.; van Beek, E.J.R.; Mirsadraee, S.

    2015-01-01

    Turner's syndrome is a disorder defined by an absent or structurally abnormal second X chromosome and affects around 1 in 2000 newborn females. The standardised mortality ratio in Turner's syndrome is around three-times higher than in the general female population, mainly as a result of cardiovascular disorders. Most striking is the early age at which Turner's syndrome patients develop the life-threatening complications of cardiovascular disorders compared to the general population. The cardiovascular risk stratification in Turner's syndrome is challenging and imaging is not systematically used. The aim of this article is to review cardiovascular risks in this group of patients and discuss a systematic imaging approach for early identification of cardiovascular disorders in these patients. PMID:25917542

  2. Creatine-kinase and dialysis patients, a helpful tool for stratifying cardiovascular risk?

    PubMed

    Quiroga, Borja; Vega, Almudena; Abad, Soraya; Villaverde, Maite; Reque, Javier; López-Gómez, Juan Manuel

    2016-01-01

    Hemodialysis patients have an enhanced risk for cardiovascular events. Cardiac biomarkers provide useful information for stratifying their risk. However the prognosis value of creatine kinase MB isoenzyme (CKMB) has not yet been validated in this population. The aim of the present study is to determine the predictable value of CK-MB in hemodialysis. A cohort of 211 hemodialysis patients (58.3% male, median age 73 (60-80) years) were followed for 39 (19-56) months. Cardiac biomarkers including CKMB were recorded at baseline. Factors associated to CKMB and prognosis value of this biomarker was studied. The median value of CKMB was 1 (1-2) ng/mL with no patient exceeding normal laboratory values. Previous heart disease, diabetes mellitus, peripheral vascular disease and systolic and diastolic dysfunction were associated with higher levels of CKMB. Ninety-four patients (44.5%) cardiovascular events were recorded. CKMB levels ≥2ng/mL was independently associated to cardiovascular events during the follow up after adjusting. Adding CKMB to a model including several variables for predicting cardiovascular events, resulted in 17% improvement in risk discrimination (IDI) with a relative IDI of 9.9% (p=0.04). CKMB is a good marker for stratifying cardiovascular risk in hemodialysis patients and adds prognosis information to other well known independent predictors for cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Española de Nefrología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  3. Cardiovascular risk factor modification: is it effective in older adults?

    PubMed

    Fair, Joan M

    2003-01-01

    Older adults over the age of 65 are the fastest growing segment of the US population. However, the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is highest in this population and CVD is the primary cause of death for elders. Cardiovascular disease risk factors are similar for both younger and older age groups and include hypertension, cigarette smoking, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes. Evidence for managing and treating these CVD risk factors in elders is presented.

  4. Markers of visceral obesity and cardiovascular risk in patients with polycystic ovarian syndrome.

    PubMed

    Gateva, Antoaneta Trifonova; Kamenov, Zdravko Asenov

    2012-10-01

    Polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) is one of most common endocrine disturbances in women of reproductive age. Besides its well known effects on reproductive health, it is also linked to increased cardiovascular risk in later life. The aim of this study was to investigate the link between some anthropometric indices of visceral obesity and surrogate markers of cardiovascular risk according to the Androgen Excess and Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (AE-PCOS) Society consensus. The study included 36 normal weight (BMI<25 kg/m²) and 19 obese PCOS subjects (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m²), aged between 18 and 40 years. Different anthropometric markers were compared as predictors for an adverse cardiometabolic profile and composite cardiovascular risk factors as defined by the AE-PCOS consensus. Both waist-to-stature ratio (WSR) (area under the curve 0.75, p=0.002) and waist circumference (WC) (area under the curve 0.77, p=0.001) but not waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) (area under the curve 0.62, p=0.143) were shown to be good markers of increased cardiovascular risk, insulin resistance and dislipidemia in PCOS patients. The cut-off point for WSR of 0.50 is useful and the cut-off of 80 cm for WC is more appropriate than 88 cm in detecting cardiovascular risk in PCOS patients. Androgen levels and immunoreactive insulin during an oral glucose tolerance test had lower power for predicting increased cardiovascular risk than WC and WSR. The study indicates that WSR and WC are better associated with composite cardiovascular risk factors as defined by the AE-PCOS consensus than WHR, and that the commonly used cut-off for WSR of 0.5 is useful for detecting cardiovascular risk in PCOS patients. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Estimating Cardiovascular Risk in Spain by the European Guidelines on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Clinical Practice.

    PubMed

    Amor, Antonio Jesús; Masana, Luis; Soriguer, Federico; Goday, Albert; Calle-Pascual, Alfonso; Gaztambide, Sonia; Rojo-Martínez, Gemma; Valdés, Sergio; Gomis, Ramón; Ortega, Emilio

    2015-05-01

    There are no nationwide, population-based studies in Spain assessing overall cardiovascular risk. We aimed to describe cardiovascular risk and achievement of treatment goals following the 2012 European Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention strategy. We also investigated clinical characteristics (non-classical risk factors) associated with moderate risk. Participants (n=2310, 58% women) aged 40 to 65 years from a national population-based study (Di@bet.es Study) were identified. First, a priori high/very-high risk individuals were identified. Next, total cardiovascular risk (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation equation including high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) was used to assess risk of a priori non-high risk individuals. Variables independently associated with moderate versus low-risk were investigated by multiple logistic regression analysis. Age-and-sex standardized (direct method) percentages of high/very-high, moderate, and low-risk were 22.8%, 43.5%, and 33.7%, respectively. Most men were at moderate (56.2%), while 55.4% of women were at low risk. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (< 70,<100, < 115 mg/dL) and blood pressure (<140/90 mmHg) goals for very-high, high and moderate risk were met in 15%, 26% and 46%, and 77%, 68% and 85% of the individuals, respectively. Body mass index, high triglycerides concentrations, diastolic blood pressure, and low Mediterranean diet adherence (in women) were independently associated with moderate (versus low) risk. Cardiovascular risk in Spain is mainly moderate in men and low in women. Achievement of treatment goals in high-risk individuals should be improved. The prevalence of non-classical cardiovascular risk factors is elevated in subjects at moderate risk, an important aspect to consider in a population-based strategy to decrease cardiovascular disease in the most prevalent group. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  6. Occupational Health Promotion Programs to Reduce Cardiovascular Risk.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glasgow, Russell E.; Terborg, James R.

    1988-01-01

    Surveys literature on worksite health promotion programs targeting cardiovascular risk factors. Reviews findings on health-risk appraisal, hypertension control, smoking cessation, weight reduction, exercise, and programs addressing multiple risk factors. Discusses current knowledge, highlights exemplary studies, and identifies problems and…

  7. Risk profile for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality after lung transplantation.

    PubMed

    De Vito Dabbs, Annette; Song, Mi-Kyung

    2008-03-01

    Transplant recipients have an unfavorable cardiovascular risk profile and experience more cardiovascular morbidity and mortality compared with the general population, primarily because of immunosuppressant-induced diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia. These discouraging prospects are even more ominous for lung transplant recipients who are more likely than other organ recipients to require intense immunosuppression and develop these conditions early and concomitantly. The purposes of this article are to heighten awareness of the prevalence, risk factors, and management of diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia in lung transplant patients, and to assist nurses to be proactive in helping recipients to reduce the likelihood of developing cardiovascular complications.

  8. Risk factors for erectile dysfunction in patients with cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Chaudhary, Rakesh Kumar; Shamsi, Bilal Haider; Chen, Hui-Ming; Tan, Tan; Tang, Kai-Fa; Xing, Jun-Ping

    2016-06-01

    To examine the relationship between risk factors for cardiac disease and erectile dysfunction (ED) in men from Xi'an, China. Participants were patients with cardiovascular disease who visited the Cardiovascular Medicine Department of Xi'an Jiaotong University First Affiliated Hospital between September 2011 and March 2012. Two hundred and fifty patients were issued with questionnaires and underwent a physical examination and blood test.Risk factors for ED were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses. In total, 222 participants returned valid questionnaires (89% response rate), underwent a physical examination and blood test, and were included in the study. The most common cardiovascular diseases were hypertension (n = 142; 64%), coronary heart disease (n = 90; 41%) and angina pectoris (n = 78; 35%). Most patients (n = 144; 65%) had two or more cardiovascular diseases. Age, smoking, body mass index, total cholesterol level, hypertension and the ratio of total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were significantly associated with ED. Domestic location, level of education, participation in physical activity, diabetes and drinking alcohol were not associated with ED. Common risk factors for cardiovascular disease are associated with ED in patients with cardiovascular disease. This study furthers understanding of the risk factors for ED in Chinese patients with cardiovascular disease and paves the way for further research into the prevention of ED. © The Author(s) 2016.

  9. [Renal markers and predictors, and renal and cardiovascular risk factors].

    PubMed

    Fernández-Andrade, C

    2002-01-01

    An important task of the nephrologists during the last century, it has been the search of elements and means that allow us, with the adequate precision, to correlate the functional deterioration of the kidney, and the patient's clinical reality. And the continuous searching of factors and markers that injure them, the prognosis, and early diagnosis, to be able to predict the degree of the organs and patient's survival. Almost parallel survival presage in the natural history of the illness, almost one century ago. In the second half of the XX century, in the developed countries, appear modifications of the social, cultural, and sanitary conditions, that make appear some very different partner-sanitary and epidemic circumstances, and take place like they are, among others: 1. An increase of per cápita private rents, what takes place to increase of the level of social life and the population's health. With increment of the longevity, and smaller incidence and prevalence of classic process, as malnutrition, infections, infantile mortality, so increasing the weight of the cardiovascular diseases and death. This is potentiated for the increment and the incidence of environmental cardiovascular risk's factors (like high caloric and fatty-rich diets, smoke, alcohol, disappearance of the physical work, inactivity, etc). And that situations are also product of the change of the outline of human and social values and guides. 2. Access of the whole population to a sanitary attention of more quality and effectiveness. It allows the biggest survival of patients that suffer vascular crisis, (as angina, miocardial infarction or cerebrovascular accident), that few years ago they have had a higher morbimortality and an inferior survival (2). 3. The execution of big epidemic studies has been able to, not only characterize and test with scientific evidence to numerous factors and markers, that induce renal and cardiovascular prejudicial changes, but risk and death probability

  10. Uric acid measurement improves prediction of cardiovascular mortality in later life.

    PubMed

    Dutta, Ambarish; Henley, William; Pilling, Luke C; Wallace, Robert B; Melzer, David

    2013-03-01

    To estimate the association between uric acid and cardiovascular mortality in older adults, independent of traditional risk factors, and to estimate the risk prediction gain by adding uric acid measurements to the Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score (FCRS). Longitudinal observational study of two population-based cohorts. The Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly, Iowa (Iowa-EPESE) and the Third National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES III). One thousand twenty-eight Iowa-EPESE participants and 1,316 NHANES III participants. Selected participants were aged 70 and older without overt cardiovascular disease, renal dysfunction, or diuretic use who lived for 3 years or longer after baseline. Outcome was age at cardiovascular death during follow-up (12–20 years). Uric acid and cardiovascular risk factors such as smoking, systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, obesity, serum cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were measured at baseline. High serum uric acid (>7.0 mg/dL) was associated with male sex, obesity, lipid levels, and estimated glomerular filtration rate at baseline. Fully adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for cardiovascular death with high uric acid versus normal were 1.36 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.10–1.69) in Iowa-EPESE and 1.43 (95% CI = 1.04–1.99) in NHANES III; pooled HR was 1.38 (95% CI = 1.16–1.61). The net reclassification improvement achieved by adding uric acid measurement to the FCRS was 9% to 20%. In individuals aged 70 and older without overt CVD, renal dysfunction, or diuretic use, serum uric acid greater than 7.0 mg/dL was associated with greater CVD mortality independent of classic CVD risk factors. Adding uric acid measurement to the FCRS would improve prediction in older adults.

  11. Prediction of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality at 10 years in the hypertensive aged population.

    PubMed

    Huynh, Quan L; Reid, Christopher M; Chowdhury, Enayet K; Huq, Molla M; Billah, Baki; Wing, Lindon M H; Tonkin, Andrew M; Simons, Leon A; Nelson, Mark R

    2015-05-01

    We have previously developed a score for predicting cardiovascular events in the intermediate term in an elderly hypertensive population. In this study, we aimed to extend this work to predict 10-year cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in the hypertensive aged population. Ten-year follow-up data of 5,378 hypertensive participants in the Second Australian National Blood Pressure study who were aged 65-84 years at baseline (1995-2001) and without prior cardiovascular events were analyzed. By using bootstrap resampling variable selection methods and comparing the Akaike and Bayesian information criterion and C-indices of the potential models, optimal and parsimonious multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict 10-year cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The models were validated using bootstrap validation method internally and using the Dubbo Study dataset externally. The final model for cardiovascular mortality included detrimental (age, smoking, diabetes, waist-hip ratio, and disadvantaged socioeconomic status) and protective factors (female sex, alcohol consumption, and physical activity). The final model for all-cause mortality also included detrimental (age, smoking, random blood glucose, and disadvantaged socioeconomic status) and protective factors (female sex, alcohol consumption, body mass index, and statin use). Blood pressure did not appear in either model in this patient group. The C-statistics for internal validation were 0.707 (cardiovascular mortality) and 0.678 (all-cause mortality), and for external validation were 0.729 (cardiovascular mortality) and 0.772 (all-cause mortality). These algorithms allow reliable estimation of 10-year risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality for hypertensive aged individuals. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2014. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. DHA-enriched high–oleic acid canola oil improves lipid profile and lowers predicted cardiovascular disease risk in the canola oil multicenter randomized controlled trial123

    PubMed Central

    Jones, Peter JH; Senanayake, Vijitha K; Pu, Shuaihua; Jenkins, David JA; Connelly, Philip W; Lamarche, Benoît; Couture, Patrick; Charest, Amélie; Baril-Gravel, Lisa; West, Sheila G; Liu, Xiaoran; Fleming, Jennifer A; McCrea, Cindy E; Kris-Etherton, Penny M

    2014-01-01

    Background: It is well recognized that amounts of trans and saturated fats should be minimized in Western diets; however, considerable debate remains regarding optimal amounts of dietary n−9, n−6, and n−3 fatty acids. Objective: The objective was to examine the effects of varying n−9, n−6, and longer-chain n−3 fatty acid composition on markers of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. Design: A randomized, double-blind, 5-period, crossover design was used. Each 4-wk treatment period was separated by 4-wk washout intervals. Volunteers with abdominal obesity consumed each of 5 identical weight-maintaining, fixed-composition diets with one of the following treatment oils (60 g/3000 kcal) in beverages: 1) conventional canola oil (Canola; n−9 rich), 2) high–oleic acid canola oil with docosahexaenoic acid (CanolaDHA; n−9 and n−3 rich), 3) a blend of corn and safflower oil (25:75) (CornSaff; n−6 rich), 4) a blend of flax and safflower oils (60:40) (FlaxSaff; n−6 and short-chain n−3 rich), or 5) high–oleic acid canola oil (CanolaOleic; highest in n−9). Results: One hundred thirty individuals completed the trial. At endpoint, total cholesterol (TC) was lowest after the FlaxSaff phase (P < 0.05 compared with Canola and CanolaDHA) and highest after the CanolaDHA phase (P < 0.05 compared with CornSaff, FlaxSaff, and CanolaOleic). Low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were highest, and triglycerides were lowest, after CanolaDHA (P < 0.05 compared with the other diets). All diets decreased TC and LDL cholesterol from baseline to treatment endpoint (P < 0.05). CanolaDHA was the only diet that increased HDL cholesterol from baseline (3.5 ± 1.8%; P < 0.05) and produced the greatest reduction in triglycerides (−20.7 ± 3.8%; P < 0.001) and in systolic blood pressure (−3.3 ± 0.8%; P < 0.001) compared with the other diets (P < 0.05). Percentage reductions in Framingham 10-y CHD risk scores (FRS) from

  13. DHA-enriched high-oleic acid canola oil improves lipid profile and lowers predicted cardiovascular disease risk in the canola oil multicenter randomized controlled trial.

    PubMed

    Jones, Peter J H; Senanayake, Vijitha K; Pu, Shuaihua; Jenkins, David J A; Connelly, Philip W; Lamarche, Benoît; Couture, Patrick; Charest, Amélie; Baril-Gravel, Lisa; West, Sheila G; Liu, Xiaoran; Fleming, Jennifer A; McCrea, Cindy E; Kris-Etherton, Penny M

    2014-07-01

    It is well recognized that amounts of trans and saturated fats should be minimized in Western diets; however, considerable debate remains regarding optimal amounts of dietary n-9, n-6, and n-3 fatty acids. The objective was to examine the effects of varying n-9, n-6, and longer-chain n-3 fatty acid composition on markers of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. A randomized, double-blind, 5-period, crossover design was used. Each 4-wk treatment period was separated by 4-wk washout intervals. Volunteers with abdominal obesity consumed each of 5 identical weight-maintaining, fixed-composition diets with one of the following treatment oils (60 g/3000 kcal) in beverages: 1) conventional canola oil (Canola; n-9 rich), 2) high-oleic acid canola oil with docosahexaenoic acid (CanolaDHA; n-9 and n-3 rich), 3) a blend of corn and safflower oil (25:75) (CornSaff; n-6 rich), 4) a blend of flax and safflower oils (60:40) (FlaxSaff; n-6 and short-chain n-3 rich), or 5) high-oleic acid canola oil (CanolaOleic; highest in n-9). One hundred thirty individuals completed the trial. At endpoint, total cholesterol (TC) was lowest after the FlaxSaff phase (P < 0.05 compared with Canola and CanolaDHA) and highest after the CanolaDHA phase (P < 0.05 compared with CornSaff, FlaxSaff, and CanolaOleic). Low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were highest, and triglycerides were lowest, after CanolaDHA (P < 0.05 compared with the other diets). All diets decreased TC and LDL cholesterol from baseline to treatment endpoint (P < 0.05). CanolaDHA was the only diet that increased HDL cholesterol from baseline (3.5 ± 1.8%; P < 0.05) and produced the greatest reduction in triglycerides (-20.7 ± 3.8%; P < 0.001) and in systolic blood pressure (-3.3 ± 0.8%; P < 0.001) compared with the other diets (P < 0.05). Percentage reductions in Framingham 10-y CHD risk scores (FRS) from baseline were greatest after CanolaDHA (-19.0 ± 3.1%; P < 0.001) than after

  14. Detection of Cardiovascular Disease Risk's Level for Adults Using Naive Bayes Classifier

    PubMed Central

    Miranda, Eka; Amelga, Alowisius Y.; Maribondang, Marco M.; Salim, Mulyadi

    2016-01-01

    Objectives The number of deaths caused by cardiovascular disease and stroke is predicted to reach 23.3 million in 2030. As a contribution to support prevention of this phenomenon, this paper proposes a mining model using a naïve Bayes classifier that could detect cardiovascular disease and identify its risk level for adults. Methods The process of designing the method began by identifying the knowledge related to the cardiovascular disease profile and the level of cardiovascular disease risk factors for adults based on the medical record, and designing a mining technique model using a naïve Bayes classifier. Evaluation of this research employed two methods: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity calculation as well as an evaluation session with cardiologists and internists. The characteristics of cardiovascular disease are identified by its primary risk factors. Those factors are diabetes mellitus, the level of lipids in the blood, coronary artery function, and kidney function. Class labels were assigned according to the values of these factors: risk level 1, risk level 2 and risk level 3. Results The evaluation of the classifier performance (accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity) in this research showed that the proposed model predicted the class label of tuples correctly (above 80%). More than eighty percent of respondents (including cardiologists and internists) who participated in the evaluation session agree till strongly agreed that this research followed medical procedures and that the result can support medical analysis related to cardiovascular disease. Conclusions The research showed that the proposed model achieves good performance for risk level detection of cardiovascular disease. PMID:27525161

  15. Cardiovascular risk assessment and treatment in systemic lupus erythematosus.

    PubMed

    Elliott, Jennifer R; Manzi, Susan

    2009-08-01

    With improved treatment modalities and survival rates, patients with systemic lupus erythematosus live longer and their co-morbidities have become more apparent. Of great concern is cardiovascular disease, which has become a leading cause of death. Lupus patients prematurely develop atherosclerosis, which likely arises from an interaction among traditional cardiovascular risk factors, factors specific to lupus itself and inflammatory mediators. Despite these findings, lupus patients are not always adequately evaluated for traditional risk factors, many of which are treatable and reversible. We propose that lupus patients be assessed and managed regarding cardiovascular risk factors in the same manner as patients with known cardiovascular disease. As a result, preventive cardiology should be considered an essential component of the care for patients with lupus.

  16. [Raising women's awareness of cardiovascular risks].

    PubMed

    Papas, Anne

    Professor Claire Mounier-Vehier, a cardiologist and vascular specialist at Lille university regional hospital, is a leading spokesperson for women in the field of the prevention of cardiovascular diseases. One of her many roles is head of the 'heart, arteries and women health care pathway' set up in 2013 at Lille university hospital. She discusses the importance of this specific and multidisciplinary care pathway at a time when epidemiological data show that the management of women's cardiovascular health has become a public health priority. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  17. Childhood Psychosocial Cumulative Risks and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Adulthood: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study

    PubMed Central

    Hakulinen, Christian; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Elovainio, Marko; Kubzansky, Laura D.; Jokela, Markus; Hintsanen, Mirka; Juonala, Markus; Kivimäki, Mika; Josefsson, Kim; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Kähönen, Mika; Viikari, Jorma; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa; Raitakari, Olli T

    2015-01-01

    Objective Adverse experiences in childhood may influence cardiovascular risk in adulthood. We examined the prospective associations between types of psychosocial adversity as well as having multiple adversities (e.g., cumulative risk) with carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and its progression among young adults. Higher cumulative risk score in childhood was expected to be associated with higher IMT and its progression. Methods Participants were 2265 men and women (age range: 24-39 years in 2001) from the on-going Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study whose carotid IMT were measured in 2001 and 2007. A cumulative psychosocial risk score, assessed at the study baseline in 1980, was derived from four separate aspects of the childhood environment that may impose risk (childhood stressful life-events, parental health behavior family, socioeconomic status, and childhood emotional environment). Results The cumulative risk score was associated with higher IMT in 2007 (b=.004; se=.001; p<.001) and increased IMT progression from 2001 to 2007 (b=.003; se=.001; p=.001). The associations were robust to adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors in childhood and adulthood, including adulthood health behavior, adulthood socioeconomic status and depressive symptoms. Among the individual childhood psychosocial risk categories, having more stressful life-events was associated with higher IMT in 2001 (b=.007; se=.003; p=.016) and poorer parental health behavior predicted higher IMT in 2007 (b=.004; se=.002; p=.031) after adjustment for age, sex and childhood cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions Early life psychosocial environment influences cardiovascular risk later in life and considering cumulative childhood risk factors may be more informative than individual factors in predicting progression of preclinical atherosclerosis in adulthood. PMID:26809108

  18. Childhood Psychosocial Cumulative Risks and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Adulthood: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study.

    PubMed

    Hakulinen, Christian; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Elovainio, Marko; Kubzansky, Laura D; Jokela, Markus; Hintsanen, Mirka; Juonala, Markus; Kivimäki, Mika; Josefsson, Kim; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Kähönen, Mika; Viikari, Jorma; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa; Raitakari, Olli T

    2016-01-01

    Adverse experiences in childhood may influence cardiovascular risk in adulthood. We examined the prospective associations between types of psychosocial adversity and having multiple adversities (e.g., cumulative risk) with carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and its progression among young adults. Higher cumulative risk score in childhood was expected to be associated with higher IMT and its progression. Participants were 2265 men and women (age range, 24-39 years in 2001) from the ongoing Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study whose carotid IMTs were measured in 2001 and 2007. A cumulative psychosocial risk score, assessed at the study baseline in 1980, was derived from four separate aspects of the childhood environment that may impose risk (childhood stressful life events, parental health behavior family, socioeconomic status, and childhood emotional environment). The cumulative risk score was associated with higher IMT in 2007 (b = 0.004, standard error [SE] = 0.001, p < .001) and increased IMT progression from 2001 to 2007 (b = 0.003, SE = 0.001, p = .001). The associations were robust to adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors in childhood and adulthood, including adulthood health behavior, adulthood socioeconomic status, and depressive symptoms. Among the individual childhood psychosocial risk categories, having more stressful life events was associated with higher IMT in 2001 (b = 0.007, SE = 0.003, p = .016) and poorer parental health behavior predicted higher IMT in 2007 (b = 0.004, SE = 0.002, p = .031) after adjustment for age, sex, and childhood cardiovascular risk factors. Early life psychosocial environment influences cardiovascular risk later in life, and considering cumulative childhood risk factors may be more informative than individual factors in predicting progression of preclinical atherosclerosis in adulthood.

  19. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  20. The cardiovascular polypill in high-risk patients.

    PubMed

    Lafeber, Melvin; Spiering, Wilko; Singh, Kavita; Guggilla, Rama K; Patil, Vinodvenkatesh; Webster, Ruth

    2012-12-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in both developed and developing countries. Adequate treatment of vascular risk factors, such as low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and systolic blood pressure are known to reduce the future risk of cardiovascular disease in these patients. However currently, large treatment gaps exist among high-risk individuals, in whom the guidelines recommend concomitant treatment with aspirin, statin, and blood-pressure lowering agents. Combining aspirin, cholesterol, and blood-pressure lowering agents into a single pill called the cardiovascular polypill has been proposed as complementary care in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases in both intermediate- and high-risk patient populations. It is now a decade since the first recommendations to develop and trial cardiovascular polypills. The major scientific debate has been about the appropriate initial target population. This review article focuses on the potential role of fixed-dose combination therapy in different patient populations, outlines the pros and cons of combination therapy, and emphasizes the rationale for trialing their use. Current and planned future cardiovascular polypill trials are summarized and the pre-requisites for implementation of the polypill strategy in both primary and secondary prevention are described. The recent development of combination pills containing off-patent medications holds promise for highly affordable and effective treatment and evidence is emerging on the use of this strategy in high-risk populations.

  1. [Do sleep abnormalities contribute to cardiovascular risk in bipolar disorders?].

    PubMed

    Micoulaud Franchi, J-A; Geoffroy, P-A; Cermolacce, M; Belzeaux, R; Adida, M; Azorin, J-M

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this review is to summarize the state of knowledge concerning the relationship between cardiovascular risk, sleep abnormalities, and emotional reactivity in patients with bipolar disorder (BD). A scientific literature search of international articles was performed during August and September 2014 using the PubMed electronic database. We used the following MeSH terms : "Bipolar Disorders", "Cardiovascular risk", "Emotional reactivity", "Sleep apnea", and "Sleep disorder". Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a sleep disorder strongly associated with BD, which tends to fragment sleep. OSA is associated with an increased cardiovascular risk. Furthermore, emotional hyper-reactivity is favored by "hostility" temperaments, BD and sleep deprivation. The combination of these factors interacts and also results in an increased cardiovascular risk. Taken as a whole, both sleep disorders and emotional hyper-reactivity seem to increase the risk of cardiovascular diseases in BD. These data emphasize the central role of sleep abnormalities and emotional reactivity in the vulnerability of BD to express cardiovascular diseases. From a clinical point of view, these data also emphasize the importance of identifying and care for sleep abnormalities in BD in order to improve BD outcome. Copyright © 2014 L’Encéphale. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.. All rights reserved.

  2. Cardiovascular Risk in Men Aged Over 40 in Boa Vista, Brazil

    PubMed Central

    de Lima Junior, Mário Maciel; Bezerra, Emanuel Araújo; Ticianeli, José Geraldo

    2016-01-01

    Background: Cardiovascular disease is the most common cause of disease in the developed world. Early detection and risk prediction are a key component in reducing cardiovascular mortality. The Framingham Risk Score uses age, sex, cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes, and smoking to calculate the 10-year risk probability of developing cardiovascular disease for a given patient. The aim of this study was to examine cardiovascular disease risk in men aged over 40 years in Boa Vista, Brazil and identify socioeconomic factors contributing to the risk. Methods: This was an epidemiological, cross-sectional, descriptive study. Physical examination and questionnaire survey were conducted on the participants. Results: Of the 598 participants (average age = 55.38 ± 10.77 years), 346 completed all the examinations and answered the survey, while 252 completed the survey and the physical examinations but did not undertake the laboratory tests. A large proportion of participants were overweight (42.6%) or obese (23.6%), 14.5% were hypertensive, and 71.9% were prehypertensive. Consumption of red meat and junk food was high, while participation in the exercise was low. Framingham scores ranged from −3 to 13 (mean score: 3.86 ± 3.16). A total of 204 participants (34.1%) had a low risk of cardiovascular disease, 98 (16.4%) had a medium risk, and 44 (7.4%) possessed high risk. Increased abdominal circumference (P = 0.013), resting pulse (P = 0.002), and prostate-specific antigen levels (P < 0.001) were associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Conclusions: Our study highlights a worrying trend in increasing obesity and hypertension, most likely associated with increasingly poor diet and reduced participation in exercises. As the Brazilian population ages, this will drive increasing rates of cardiovascular mortality unless these trends are reversed. This study suggests that such campaigns should focus on men over the age of 40, who are married or divorced and of

  3. Cardiovascular Risk in Men Aged Over 40 in Boa Vista, Brazil.

    PubMed

    de Lima Junior, Mário Maciel; Bezerra, Emanuel Araújo; Ticianeli, José Geraldo

    2016-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease is the most common cause of disease in the developed world. Early detection and risk prediction are a key component in reducing cardiovascular mortality. The Framingham Risk Score uses age, sex, cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes, and smoking to calculate the 10-year risk probability of developing cardiovascular disease for a given patient. The aim of this study was to examine cardiovascular disease risk in men aged over 40 years in Boa Vista, Brazil and identify socioeconomic factors contributing to the risk. This was an epidemiological, cross-sectional, descriptive study. Physical examination and questionnaire survey were conducted on the participants. Of the 598 participants (average age = 55.38 ± 10.77 years), 346 completed all the examinations and answered the survey, while 252 completed the survey and the physical examinations but did not undertake the laboratory tests. A large proportion of participants were overweight (42.6%) or obese (23.6%), 14.5% were hypertensive, and 71.9% were prehypertensive. Consumption of red meat and junk food was high, while participation in the exercise was low. Framingham scores ranged from -3 to 13 (mean score: 3.86 ± 3.16). A total of 204 participants (34.1%) had a low risk of cardiovascular disease, 98 (16.4%) had a medium risk, and 44 (7.4%) possessed high risk. Increased abdominal circumference (P = 0.013), resting pulse (P = 0.002), and prostate-specific antigen levels (P < 0.001) were associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Our study highlights a worrying trend in increasing obesity and hypertension, most likely associated with increasingly poor diet and reduced participation in exercises. As the Brazilian population ages, this will drive increasing rates of cardiovascular mortality unless these trends are reversed. This study suggests that such campaigns should focus on men over the age of 40, who are married or divorced and of lower income.

  4. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  5. The Veterans Affairs Cardiac Risk Score: Recalibrating the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Score for Applied Use.

    PubMed

    Sussman, Jeremy B; Wiitala, Wyndy L; Zawistowski, Matthew; Hofer, Timothy P; Bentley, Douglas; Hayward, Rodney A

    2017-09-01

    Accurately estimating cardiovascular risk is fundamental to good decision-making in cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, but risk scores developed in one population often perform poorly in dissimilar populations. We sought to examine whether a large integrated health system can use their electronic health data to better predict individual patients' risk of developing CVD. We created a cohort using all patients ages 45-80 who used Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) ambulatory care services in 2006 with no history of CVD, heart failure, or loop diuretics. Our outcome variable was new-onset CVD in 2007-2011. We then developed a series of recalibrated scores, including a fully refit "VA Risk Score-CVD (VARS-CVD)." We tested the different scores using standard measures of prediction quality. For the 1,512,092 patients in the study, the Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score had similar discrimination as the VARS-CVD (c-statistic of 0.66 in men and 0.73 in women), but the Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease model had poor calibration, predicting 63% more events than observed. Calibration was excellent in the fully recalibrated VARS-CVD tool, but simpler techniques tested proved less reliable. We found that local electronic health record data can be used to estimate CVD better than an established risk score based on research populations. Recalibration improved estimates dramatically, and the type of recalibration was important. Such tools can also easily be integrated into health system's electronic health record and can be more readily updated.

  6. [Control of cardiovascular risk factors among patients with diabetes with and without cardiovascular disease].

    PubMed

    Herrero, A; Garzón, G; Gil, A; García, I; Vargas, E; Torres, N

    2015-10-01

    There is evidence that cardiovascular goals are beneficial in diabetes. To determine the distribution of cardiovascular risk levels in patients with diabetes and the clinical interventions they have received. Descriptive cross-sectional study. SERMAS (Madrid) 2010. All patients with diabetes. (n=41,096). Patients in primary or secondary prevention, metabolic and cardiovascular risk factors control, pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions. Patient and professional variables. Around one-fifth (21.5%) (95%CI: 21.1% -21.9%) in secondary prevention (very high cardiovascular risk). HbA1c was under control in 31% (95%CI: 30.1%-32%), with 49.9% (95%CI: 48.8%-50.9%) with BP under control, and 39.4% (95% CI: 38.4%-40.4%) with LDL controlled. Only 8.9% (95%CI: 8.3%-9.5%) had a well-controlled HdA1c, BP and LDL, and in 19.8% (95%CI: 19%-20.6%) none of these were under control. Of those with an uncontrolled BP, 23.6% (95% CI: 23.2%-24%) had antihypertensive drugs. There was better control in patients older than 70 years, and those who lived in an urban center, or a lower number of patients per day. In diabetic patients with very high cardiovascular risk (secondary prevention), just half of them had good control of cardiovascular risk factors (BP and LDL). An association was found between better control and older than 70, urban center or lower number of patients per day. This suggests developing strategies to promote a comprehensive control of cardiovascular