Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages.

PubMed

Hughes, Terry P; Kerry, James T; Baird, Andrew H; Connolly, Sean R; Dietzel, Andreas; Eakin, C Mark; Heron, Scott F; Hoey, Andrew S; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Liu, Gang; McWilliam, Michael J; Pears, Rachel J; Pratchett, Morgan S; Skirving, William J; Stella, Jessica S; Torda, Gergely

2018-04-01

Global warming is rapidly emerging as a universal threat to ecological integrity and function, highlighting the urgent need for a better understanding of the impact of heat exposure on the resilience of ecosystems and the people who depend on them 1 . Here we show that in the aftermath of the record-breaking marine heatwave on the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 2 , corals began to die immediately on reefs where the accumulated heat exposure exceeded a critical threshold of degree heating weeks, which was 3-4 °C-weeks. After eight months, an exposure of 6 °C-weeks or more drove an unprecedented, regional-scale shift in the composition of coral assemblages, reflecting markedly divergent responses to heat stress by different taxa. Fast-growing staghorn and tabular corals suffered a catastrophic die-off, transforming the three-dimensionality and ecological functioning of 29% of the 3,863 reefs comprising the world's largest coral reef system. Our study bridges the gap between the theory and practice of assessing the risk of ecosystem collapse, under the emerging framework for the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Ecosystems 3 , by rigorously defining both the initial and collapsed states, identifying the major driver of change, and establishing quantitative collapse thresholds. The increasing prevalence of post-bleaching mass mortality of corals represents a radical shift in the disturbance regimes of tropical reefs, both adding to and far exceeding the influence of recurrent cyclones and other local pulse events, presenting a fundamental challenge to the long-term future of these iconic ecosystems.

Front propagation and effect of memory in stochastic desertification models with an absorbing state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, Dor; Shnerb, Nadav M.

2017-08-01

Desertification in dryland ecosystems is considered to be a major environmental threat that may lead to devastating consequences. The concern increases when the system admits two alternative steady states and the transition is abrupt and irreversible (catastrophic shift). However, recent studies show that the inherent stochasticity of the birth-death process, when superimposed on the presence of an absorbing state, may lead to a continuous (second order) transition even if the deterministic dynamics supports a catastrophic transition. Following these works we present here a numerical study of a one-dimensional stochastic desertification model, where the deterministic predictions are confronted with the observed dynamics. Our results suggest that a stochastic spatial system allows for a propagating front only when its active phase invades the inactive (desert) one. In the extinction phase one observes transient front propagation followed by a global collapse. In the presence of a seed bank the vegetation state is shown to be more robust against demographic stochasticity, but the transition in that case still belongs to the directed percolation equivalence class.

Seasonally Varying Predation Behavior and Climate Shifts Are Predicted to Affect Predator-Prey Cycles.

PubMed

Tyson, Rebecca; Lutscher, Frithjof

2016-11-01

The functional response of some predator species changes from a pattern characteristic for a generalist to that for a specialist according to seasonally varying prey availability. Current theory does not address the dynamic consequences of this phenomenon. Since season length correlates strongly with altitude and latitude and is predicted to change under future climate scenarios, including this phenomenon in theoretical models seems essential for correct prediction of future ecosystem dynamics. We develop and analyze a two-season model for the great horned owl (Bubo virginialis) and snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus). These species form a predator-prey system in which the generalist to specialist shift in predation pattern has been documented empirically. We study the qualitative behavior of this predator-prey model community as summer season length changes. We find that relatively small changes in summer season length can have a profound impact on the system. In particular, when the predator has sufficient alternative resources available during the summer season, it can drive the prey to extinction, there can be coexisting stable states, and there can be stable large-amplitude limit cycles coexisting with a stable steady state. Our results illustrate that the impacts of global change on local ecosystems can be driven by internal system dynamics and can potentially have catastrophic consequences.

Facilitation- vs. competition-driven succession: the key role of resource-ratio.

PubMed

Koffel, Thomas; Boudsocq, Simon; Loeuille, Nicolas; Daufresne, Tanguy

2018-05-02

Symbiotic nitrogen (N)-fixing plants are abundant during primary succession, as typical bedrocks lack available N. In turn, fixed N accumulates in soils through biomass turnover and recycling, favouring more nitrophilous organisms. Yet, it is unclear how this facilitation mechanism interacts with competition for other limiting nutrients such as phosphorus (P) and how this affects succession. Here, we introduce a resource-explicit, community assembly model of N-fixing species and analyze successional trajectories along resource availability gradients using contemporary niche theory. We show that facilitation-driven succession occurs under low N and high enough P availabilities, and is characterised by autogenic ecosystem development and relatively ordered trajectories. We show that late facilitation-driven succession is sensitive to catastrophic shifts, highlighting the need to invoke other mechanisms to explain ecosystem stability near the climax. Put together with competition-driven succession, these results lead to an enriched version of Tilman's resource-ratio theory of succession. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Use of remote sensing and UAV for the management of degraded ecosystems: the case study of overgrazing in Randi Forest, Cyprus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Themistocleous, K.; Papadavid, G.; Christoforou, M.; Agapiou, A.; Andreou, K.; Tsaltas, D.; Hadjimitsis, D. G.

2014-08-01

This paper provides the results obtained by using satellite imagery and UAV data for managing a degraded system over Randi Forest in Cyprus. Landsat TM/ETM+ and GeoEye images have been used to retrieve several indices with the main aim to managing the overgrazed area. Aerial photographs were acquired in order to document and monitor the overgrazed areas, which also include seasonal changes in vegetation and soil. UAVs were used to create ortho-photos and DEMS. Satellite images were used to conduct NDVIs of the study area. The resulting findings provide a detailed image of the specific location of overgrazed areas. The results of the study can be used for decision makers to establish effective strategies to avoid similar scenarios of overgrazing in other parts of Cyprus.This study was funded by the FP7 programme CASCADE Project on sudden and catastrophic shifts in dryland Mediterranean ecosystems (2012-2017).

Price and Welfare Effects of Catastrophic Forest Damage from Southern Pine Beetle Epidemics

Treesearch

Thomas P. Holmes

1991-01-01

Southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis) epidemics are periodically responsible for catastrophic levels of mortality to southern yellow pine forests. Traditional forest damage appraisal techniques developed for site specific economic analysis are theoretically weak since they do not consider aggregate impacts across ecosystems and related markets. Because the...

Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change.

PubMed

Dakos, Vasilis; Scheffer, Marten; van Nes, Egbert H; Brovkin, Victor; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Held, Hermann

2008-09-23

In the Earth's history, periods of relatively stable climate have often been interrupted by sharp transitions to a contrasting state. One explanation for such events of abrupt change is that they happened when the earth system reached a critical tipping point. However, this remains hard to prove for events in the remote past, and it is even more difficult to predict if and when we might reach a tipping point for abrupt climate change in the future. Here, we analyze eight ancient abrupt climate shifts and show that they were all preceded by a characteristic slowing down of the fluctuations starting well before the actual shift. Such slowing down, measured as increased autocorrelation, can be mathematically shown to be a hallmark of tipping points. Therefore, our results imply independent empirical evidence for the idea that past abrupt shifts were associated with the passing of critical thresholds. Because the mechanism causing slowing down is fundamentally inherent to tipping points, it follows that our way to detect slowing down might be used as a universal early warning signal for upcoming catastrophic change. Because tipping points in ecosystems and other complex systems are notoriously hard to predict in other ways, this is a promising perspective.

Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change

PubMed Central

Dakos, Vasilis; Scheffer, Marten; van Nes, Egbert H.; Brovkin, Victor; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Held, Hermann

2008-01-01

In the Earth's history, periods of relatively stable climate have often been interrupted by sharp transitions to a contrasting state. One explanation for such events of abrupt change is that they happened when the earth system reached a critical tipping point. However, this remains hard to prove for events in the remote past, and it is even more difficult to predict if and when we might reach a tipping point for abrupt climate change in the future. Here, we analyze eight ancient abrupt climate shifts and show that they were all preceded by a characteristic slowing down of the fluctuations starting well before the actual shift. Such slowing down, measured as increased autocorrelation, can be mathematically shown to be a hallmark of tipping points. Therefore, our results imply independent empirical evidence for the idea that past abrupt shifts were associated with the passing of critical thresholds. Because the mechanism causing slowing down is fundamentally inherent to tipping points, it follows that our way to detect slowing down might be used as a universal early warning signal for upcoming catastrophic change. Because tipping points in ecosystems and other complex systems are notoriously hard to predict in other ways, this is a promising perspective. PMID:18787119

Cost / effectiveness analysis of ponderosa pine ecosystem restoration in Flagstaff Arizona's wildland-urban interface

Treesearch

Guy Pinjuv; P. J. Daugherty; Bruce E. Fox

2001-01-01

Ponderosa pine ecosystem restoration in Fort Valley (located east of Flagstaff, Arizona) has been proposed as a method of restoring ecosystem health and lowering the risk of catastrophic wildfire in Flagstaff's wildland-urban interface. Three methods of harvest are being used to carry out restoration treatments: hand harvesting, cut-to-length harvesting, and whole...

Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe.

PubMed

Williams, Stephen E; Bolitho, Elizabeth E; Fox, Samantha

2003-09-22

It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degrees C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change.

Synthetic circuit designs for earth terraformation.

PubMed

Solé, Ricard V; Montañez, Raúl; Duran-Nebreda, Salva

2015-07-18

Mounting evidence indicates that our planet might experience runaway effects associated to rising temperatures and ecosystem overexploitation, leading to catastrophic shifts on short time scales. Remediation scenarios capable of counterbalancing these effects involve geoengineering, sustainable practices and carbon sequestration, among others. None of these scenarios seems powerful enough to achieve the desired restoration of safe boundaries. We hypothesize that synthetic organisms with the appropriate engineering design could be used to safely prevent declines in some stressed ecosystems and help improving carbon sequestration. Such schemes would include engineering mutualistic dependencies preventing undesired evolutionary processes. We hypothesize that some particular design principles introduce unescapable constraints to the engineered organisms that act as effective firewalls. Testing this designed organisms can be achieved by using controlled bioreactor models, with single and heterogeneous populations, and accurate computational models including different scales (from genetic constructs and metabolic pathways to population dynamics). Our hypothesis heads towards a future anthropogenic action that should effectively act as Terraforming processes. It also implies a major challenge in the existing biosafety policies, since we suggest release of modified organisms as potentially necessary strategy for success.

Classical biological control for the protection of native ecosystems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Native ecosystems and their component species are undergoing catastrophic and irreparable change globally as habitat is destroyed for human use and invaded by species from other biogeographical areas (Simberloff et al., 1997; Cox, 1999; Lockwood et al., 2006). Political solutions may be devised to s...

Human Response to Climatic Shifts during MIS3 in Northern Iberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marin-Arroyo, A. B.; Jones, J.; Richards, M.

2016-12-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions are usually limited by the availability of climate proxies to compare with GCM results. This is especially true regarding terrestrial environments where pollen records are scarce or potentially biased. The analysis of stable isotopes from animal bones has recently opened new possibilities of objectively establishing past environmental shifts. The potential of this method and its implications for human evolution is demonstrated in northern Iberia during the MIS3, a period that witnessed rapid and acute changes as evidenced in ice cores, whose effects on European ecological conditions might be behind the extinction of Neanderthals and their sudden replacement by Anatomically Modern Humans. The lack of a continuous, fine-grained, and well-dated terrestrial palaeoclimatic sequence has precluded verification of this hypothesis in a region that comprises a relevant archaeological record of both human species during Late Pleistocene. Hence, a long and well-dated chronology of N15, C13 and O18 variation in combination with a human dietary study, as a recollection of human resilience to ecological change, is used to assess if ecosystems were pushed beyond tipping points towards catastrophic scenarios.

[Impact of heavy snow storm and freezing rain disasters on soil fauna in Chinese fir plantation in southern China].

PubMed

Yan, Shao-kui; Zhang, Wei-dong; Liu, Yan-xin; Fu, Sheng-lei; Li, Yuan-liang; Wang, Si-long

2009-01-01

In January 2008, southern China suffered an unusual heavy snowstorm and freezing rain over a large area for almost a month long. This catastrophic event was the worst one in past 50 years, which brought the area a serious impact on the infrastructure, ecology, and environment. To understand the long-term impact of this catastrophic event on the forest ecosystems in this area, a field investigation was conducted on the soil fauna in a pure Chinese fir plantation and a mixed Chinese fir plantation-alder plantation in Huitong County of Hunan Province on March 23, 2008, the date 40 days after the heavy snowstorm and freezing rain. With the abundance and community composition as the main parameters and the monitoring data from the two plantations on March 23, 2007 as the reference, the flexibility and resistance of soil fauna to the disturbances of the catastrophic event was preliminarily evaluated. The results showed that there was a significant deviation of soil fauna communities in the two plantations from the reference. An outbreak increase in microfauna nematode abundance was found from 12216.9 ind x m(-2) to 118343.9 ind x m(-2) in pure Chinese fir plantation and from 25435.9 ind x m(-2) to 84573.0 ind x m(-2) in mixed Chinese fir plantation-alder plantation, while a 27.0% and 85.6% decrease of macrofauna abundance was found in the two plantations, respectively, compared with the reference. Mesofauna abundance also had a significant decrease in litter layer but not in soil. The abundance recovery displayed a trend from quick rate for microfauna to slow rate for macrofauna, which indicated that the soil fauna functional groups, in terms of body size, could be used as a vulnerable indicator in evaluating disturbance event and post-disturbance recovery. By using community ordinations, no shift in soil fauna community composition was detected 40 days after the catastrophic event, suggesting that the community composition of soil invertebrate had a high resistance to catastrophic snowstorm and freezing rain disturbances.

Ecological Catastrophes and Disturbance Relicts: A Case Study from Easter Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wynne, J.

2014-12-01

Caves are often considered buffered environments in terms of their ability to sustain near constant microclimatic conditions. However, environments within cave entrances are expected to respond most quickly to changing surface conditions. We cataloged a relict assemblage of at least 10 endemic arthropods likely restricted to caves and occurring primarily within cave entranceways. Of these animals, eight were considered new undescribed species. These endemic arthropods have persisted in Rapa Nui (Easter Island) caves despite a catastrophic ecological shift induced by island-wide deforestation, fire intolerance, and drought, as well as intensive livestock grazing and surface ecosystems dominated by invasive species. We consider these animals to be "disturbance relicts" - species whose distributions are now limited to areas that experienced minimal human disturbance historically. Today, these species represent one-third of the Rapa Nui's known endemic arthropods. Given the island's severely depauperate native fauna, these arthropods should be considered among the highest priority targets for biological conservation. In other regions globally, epigean examples of imperiled disturbance relicts persisting within narrow distributional ranges have been documented. As human activity intensifies, and habitat loss and fragmentation continues worldwide, additional disturbance relicts will be identified. We expect extinction debts, global climate change and interactions with invasive species will challenge the persistence of both hypogean and epigean disturbance relict species.

State transitions and feedback mechanisms control hydrology in the constructed catchment ´Chicken Creeḱ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaaf, Wolfgang; Gerwin, Werner; Hinz, Christoph; Zaplata, Markus

2016-04-01

Landscapes and ecosystems are complex systems with many feedback mechanisms acting between the various abiotic and biotic components. The knowledge about these interacting processes is mainly derived from mature ecosystems. The initial development of ecosystem complexity may involve state transitions following catastrophic shifts, disturbances or transgression of thresholds. The Chicken Creek catchment was constructed in 2005 in the mining area of Lusatia/Germany to study processes and feedback mechanisms during ecosystem evolution. The hillslope-shaped 6 ha site has defined boundary conditions and well-documented inner structures. The dominating substrate above the underlying clay layer is Pleistocene sandy material representing mainly the lower C horizon of the former landscape. Since 2005, the unrestricted, unmanaged development of the catchment was intensively monitored. During the ten years since then, we observed characteristic state transitions in catchment functioning driven by feedbacks between original substrate properties, surface structures, soil development and vegetation succession. Whereas surface runoff induced by surface crusting and infiltration dominated catchment hydrology in the first years, the impact of vegetation on hydrological pathways and groundwater levels became more and more evident during the last years. Discharge from the catchment changed from episodic events driven by precipitation and surface runoff to groundwater driven. This general picture is overlain by spatial patterns and single episodic events of external drivers. The scientific value of the Chicken Creek site with known boundary conditions and structure information could help in disentangling general feedback mechanisms between hydrologic, pedogenic, biological and geomorphological processes as well as a in gaining a more integrative view of succession and its drivers during the transition from initial, less complex systems to more mature ecosystems. Long-term time series of data are a key for a better understanding of these processes and the effects on ecosystem resilience and self-organization.

Prescribed fire in a Great Basin sagebrush ecosystem: Dynamics of soil extractable nitrogen and phosphorus

Treesearch

B. M. Rau; R. R. Blank; J. C. Chambers; D. W. Johnson

2007-01-01

Pinyon and juniper have been expanding into sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) ecosystems since settlement of the Great Basin around 1860. Herbaceous understory vegetation is eliminated as stand densities increase and the potential for catastrophic fires increases. Prescribed fire is increasingly used to remove trees and promote recovery of sagebrush...

Prolonged Permian Triassic ecological crisis recorded by molluscan dominance in Late Permian offshore assemblages.

PubMed

Clapham, Matthew E; Bottjer, David J

2007-08-07

The end-Permian mass extinction was the largest biotic crisis in the history of animal life, eliminating as many as 95% of all species and dramatically altering the ecological structure of marine communities. Although the causes of this pronounced ecosystem shift have been widely debated, the broad consensus based on inferences from global taxonomic diversity patterns suggests that the shift from abundant brachiopods to dominant molluscs was abrupt and largely driven by the catastrophic effects of the end-Permian mass extinction. Here we analyze relative abundance counts of >33,000 fossil individuals from 24 silicified Middle and Late Permian paleocommunities, documenting a substantial ecological shift to numerical dominance by molluscs in the Late Permian, before the major taxonomic shift at the end-Permian mass extinction. This ecological change was coincident with the development of fluctuating anoxic conditions in deep marine basins, suggesting that numerical dominance by more tolerant molluscs may have been driven by variably stressful environmental conditions. Recognition of substantial ecological deterioration in the Late Permian also implies that the end-Permian extinction was the climax of a protracted environmental crisis. Although the Late Permian shift to molluscan dominance was a pronounced ecological change, quantitative counts of 847 Carboniferous-Cretaceous collections from the Paleobiology Database indicate that it was only the first stage in a stepwise transition that culminated with the final shift to molluscan dominance in the Late Jurassic. Therefore, the ecological transition from brachiopods to bivalves was more protracted and complex than their simple Permian-Triassic switch in diversity.

Prolonged Permian–Triassic ecological crisis recorded by molluscan dominance in Late Permian offshore assemblages

PubMed Central

Clapham, Matthew E.; Bottjer, David J.

2007-01-01

The end-Permian mass extinction was the largest biotic crisis in the history of animal life, eliminating as many as 95% of all species and dramatically altering the ecological structure of marine communities. Although the causes of this pronounced ecosystem shift have been widely debated, the broad consensus based on inferences from global taxonomic diversity patterns suggests that the shift from abundant brachiopods to dominant molluscs was abrupt and largely driven by the catastrophic effects of the end-Permian mass extinction. Here we analyze relative abundance counts of >33,000 fossil individuals from 24 silicified Middle and Late Permian paleocommunities, documenting a substantial ecological shift to numerical dominance by molluscs in the Late Permian, before the major taxonomic shift at the end-Permian mass extinction. This ecological change was coincident with the development of fluctuating anoxic conditions in deep marine basins, suggesting that numerical dominance by more tolerant molluscs may have been driven by variably stressful environmental conditions. Recognition of substantial ecological deterioration in the Late Permian also implies that the end-Permian extinction was the climax of a protracted environmental crisis. Although the Late Permian shift to molluscan dominance was a pronounced ecological change, quantitative counts of 847 Carboniferous–Cretaceous collections from the Paleobiology Database indicate that it was only the first stage in a stepwise transition that culminated with the final shift to molluscan dominance in the Late Jurassic. Therefore, the ecological transition from brachiopods to bivalves was more protracted and complex than their simple Permian–Triassic switch in diversity. PMID:17664426

Diseases of Forest Trees: Consequences of Exotic Ecosystems?

Treesearch

William J. Otrosina

1998-01-01

Much attention is now given to risks and impacts of exotic pest introductions in forest ecosystems. This concern is for good reason because, once introduced, an exotic pathogen or insect encounters little resistance in the native plant population and can produce catastrophic losses in relatively short periods of time. Most native fungal pathogens of forest trees have...

Regime shifts and resilience in China's coastal ecosystems.

PubMed

Zhang, Ke

2016-02-01

Regime shift often results in large, abrupt, and persistent changes in the provision of ecosystem services and can therefore have significant impacts on human wellbeing. Understanding regime shifts has profound implications for ecosystem recovery and management. China's coastal ecosystems have experienced substantial deterioration within the past decades, at a scale and speed the world has never seen before. Yet, information about this coastal ecosystem change from a dynamics perspective is quite limited. In this review, I synthesize existing information on coastal ecosystem regime shifts in China and discuss their interactions and cascading effects. The accumulation of regime shifts in China's coastal ecosystems suggests that the desired system resilience has been profoundly eroded, increasing the potential of abrupt shifts to undesirable states at a larger scale, especially given multiple escalating pressures. Policy and management strategies need to incorporate resilience approaches in order to cope with future challenges and avoid major losses in China's coastal ecosystem services.

Effect of an invasive ant and its chemical control on a threatened endemic Seychelles millipede.

PubMed

Lawrence, James M; Samways, Michael J; Henwood, Jock; Kelly, Janine

2011-06-01

The impact of invasive species on island faunas can be of major local consequence, while their control is an important part of island ecosystem restoration. Among these invasive species are ants, of which some have a disruptive impact on indigenous arthropod populations. Here, we study the impact of the invasive African big-headed ant, Pheidole megacephala, on a small Seychelles island, Cousine, and assess the impact of this ant, and its chemical control, using the commercially available hydramethylnon-based bait, Siege, on the endemic keystone Seychelles giant millipede species, Sechelleptus seychellarum. We found no significant correlations in landscape-scale spatial overlap and abundance between the ant and the millipede. Furthermore, the ant did not attack healthy millipedes, but fed only on dying and dead individuals. The chemical defences of the millipede protected it from ant predation. Ingestion of the bait at standard concentration had no obvious impact on the millipede. The most significant threat to the Seychelles giant millipede in terms of P. megacephala invasion is from possible catastrophic shifts in ecosystem function through ant hemipteran mutualisms which can lead to tree mortality, resulting in alteration of the millipede's habitat.

Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe.

PubMed Central

Williams, Stephen E; Bolitho, Elizabeth E; Fox, Samantha

2003-01-01

It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degrees C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change. PMID:14561301

Comparative analysis of European wide marine ecosystem shifts: a large-scale approach for developing the basis for ecosystem-based management.

PubMed

Möllmann, Christian; Conversi, Alessandra; Edwards, Martin

2011-08-23

Abrupt and rapid ecosystem shifts (where major reorganizations of food-web and community structures occur), commonly termed regime shifts, are changes between contrasting and persisting states of ecosystem structure and function. These shifts have been increasingly reported for exploited marine ecosystems around the world from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic. Understanding the drivers and mechanisms leading to marine ecosystem shifts is crucial in developing adaptive management strategies to achieve sustainable exploitation of marine ecosystems. An international workshop on a comparative approach to analysing these marine ecosystem shifts was held at Hamburg University, Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, Germany on 1-3 November 2010. Twenty-seven scientists from 14 countries attended the meeting, representing specialists from seven marine regions, including the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Barents Sea, the Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Bay of Biscay and the Scotian Shelf off the Canadian East coast. The goal of the workshop was to conduct the first large-scale comparison of marine ecosystem regime shifts across multiple regional areas, in order to support the development of ecosystem-based management strategies. This journal is © 2011 The Royal Society

The use of UAV to document sloping landscapes to produce digital elevation models to examine environmental degradation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Themistocleous, K.; Agapiou, A.; Papadavid, G.; Christoforou, M.; Hadjimitsis, D. G.

2015-10-01

This paper focuses on the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) over the study area of Pissouri in Cyprus to document the sloping landscapes of the area. The study area has been affected by overgrazing, which has led to shifts in the vegetation patterns and changing microtopography of the soil. The UAV images were used to generate digital elevation models (DEMs) to examine the changes in microtopography. Next to that orthophotos were used to detect changes in vegetation patterns. The combined data of the digital elevation models and the orthophotos will be used to detect the occurrence of catastrophic shifts and mechanisms for desertification in the study area due to overgrazing. This study is part of the "CASCADE- Catastrophic shifts in dryland" project.

Viewpoint: Sustainability of piñon-juniper ecosystems - A unifying perspective of soil erosion thresholds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davenport, David W.; Breshears, D.D.; Wilcox, B.P.; Allen, Craig D.

1998-01-01

Many pinon-juniper ecosystem in the western U.S. are subject to accelerated erosion while others are undergoing little or no erosion. Controversy has developed over whether invading or encroaching pinon and juniper species are inherently harmful to rangeland ecosystems. We developed a conceptual model of soil erosion in pinon-jumper ecosystems that is consistent with both sides of the controversy and suggests that the diverse perspectives on this issue arise from threshold effects operating under very different site conditions. Soil erosion rate can be viewed as a function of (1) site erosion potential (SEP), determined by climate, geomorphology and soil erodibility; and (2) ground cover. Site erosion potential and cove act synergistically to determine soil erosion rates, as evident even from simple USLE predictions of erosion. In pinon-juniper ecosystem with high SEP, the erosion rate is highly sensitive to ground cover and can cross a threshold so that erosion increases dramatically in response to a small decrease in cover. The sensitivity of erosion rate to SEP and cover can be visualized as a cusp catastrophe surface on which changes may occur rapidly and irreversibly. The mechanisms associated with a rapid shift from low to high erosion rate can be illustrated using percolation theory to incorporate spatial, temporal, and scale-dependent patterns of water storage capacity on a hillslope. Percolation theory demonstrates how hillslope runoff can undergo a threshold response to a minor change in storage capacity. Our conceptual model suggests that pinion and juniper contribute to accelerated erosion only under a limited range of site conditions which, however, may exist over large areas.

Forest health in the Blue Mountains: a management strategy for fire-adapted ecosystems.

Treesearch

R.W. Mutch; S.F. Arno; J.K. Brown; C.E. Carlson; R.D. Ottmar; J.L. Peterson

1993-01-01

The fire-adapted forests of the Blue Mountains are suffering from a forest health problem of catastrophic proportions. Contributing to the decline of forest health are such factors as the extensive harvesting of the western larch and ponderosa pine overstory during the 1900s, attempted exclusion of fire from a fire-dependent ecosystem, and the continuing drought. The...

A modelling methodology to assess the effect of insect pest control on agro-ecosystems.

PubMed

Wan, Nian-Feng; Ji, Xiang-Yun; Jiang, Jie-Xian; Li, Bo

2015-04-23

The extensive use of chemical pesticides for pest management in agricultural systems can entail risks to the complex ecosystems consisting of economic, ecological and social subsystems. To analyze the negative and positive effects of external or internal disturbances on complex ecosystems, we proposed an ecological two-sidedness approach which has been applied to the design of pest-controlling strategies for pesticide pollution management. However, catastrophe theory has not been initially applied to this approach. Thus, we used an approach of integrating ecological two-sidedness with a multi-criterion evaluation method of catastrophe theory to analyze the complexity of agro-ecosystems disturbed by the insecticides and screen out the best insect pest-controlling strategy in cabbage production. The results showed that the order of the values of evaluation index (RCC/CP) for three strategies in cabbage production was "applying frequency vibration lamps and environment-friendly insecticides 8 times" (0.80) < "applying trap devices and environment-friendly insecticides 9 times" (0.83) < "applying common insecticides 14 times" (1.08). The treatment "applying frequency vibration lamps and environment-friendly insecticides 8 times" was considered as the best insect pest-controlling strategy in cabbage production in Shanghai, China.

A modelling methodology to assess the effect of insect pest control on agro-ecosystems

PubMed Central

Wan, Nian-Feng; Ji, Xiang-Yun; Jiang, Jie-Xian; Li, Bo

2015-01-01

The extensive use of chemical pesticides for pest management in agricultural systems can entail risks to the complex ecosystems consisting of economic, ecological and social subsystems. To analyze the negative and positive effects of external or internal disturbances on complex ecosystems, we proposed an ecological two-sidedness approach which has been applied to the design of pest-controlling strategies for pesticide pollution management. However, catastrophe theory has not been initially applied to this approach. Thus, we used an approach of integrating ecological two-sidedness with a multi-criterion evaluation method of catastrophe theory to analyze the complexity of agro-ecosystems disturbed by the insecticides and screen out the best insect pest-controlling strategy in cabbage production. The results showed that the order of the values of evaluation index (RCC/CP) for three strategies in cabbage production was “applying frequency vibration lamps and environment-friendly insecticides 8 times” (0.80) < “applying trap devices and environment-friendly insecticides 9 times” (0.83) < “applying common insecticides 14 times” (1.08). The treatment “applying frequency vibration lamps and environment-friendly insecticides 8 times” was considered as the best insect pest-controlling strategy in cabbage production in Shanghai, China. PMID:25906199

Coupled catastrophes: sudden shifts cascade and hop among interdependent systems

PubMed Central

Barnett, George; D'Souza, Raissa M.

2015-01-01

An important challenge in several disciplines is to understand how sudden changes can propagate among coupled systems. Examples include the synchronization of business cycles, population collapse in patchy ecosystems, markets shifting to a new technology platform, collapses in prices and in confidence in financial markets, and protests erupting in multiple countries. A number of mathematical models of these phenomena have multiple equilibria separated by saddle-node bifurcations. We study this behaviour in its normal form as fast–slow ordinary differential equations. In our model, a system consists of multiple subsystems, such as countries in the global economy or patches of an ecosystem. Each subsystem is described by a scalar quantity, such as economic output or population, that undergoes sudden changes via saddle-node bifurcations. The subsystems are coupled via their scalar quantity (e.g. trade couples economic output; diffusion couples populations); that coupling moves the locations of their bifurcations. The model demonstrates two ways in which sudden changes can propagate: they can cascade (one causing the next), or they can hop over subsystems. The latter is absent from classic models of cascades. For an application, we study the Arab Spring protests. After connecting the model to sociological theories that have bistability, we use socioeconomic data to estimate relative proximities to tipping points and Facebook data to estimate couplings among countries. We find that although protests tend to spread locally, they also seem to ‘hop' over countries, like in the stylized model; this result highlights a new class of temporal motifs in longitudinal network datasets. PMID:26559684

Managing for resilience: early detection of regime shifts in complex systems

EPA Science Inventory

The goal of sustainability is to maintain a condition or regime of the Earth, which supports human existence from generation to generation. Hence, the ability to detect, characterize, and manage regime shifts, particularly catastrophic ones, is critical to maintaining human sust...

Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management.

PubMed

Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; van Putten, Ingrid E; Pecl, Gretta T

2016-07-01

As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species - or range shifts - across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south-eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management application.

PubMed

Lindegren, Martin; Dakos, Vasilis; Gröger, Joachim P; Gårdmark, Anna; Kornilovs, Georgs; Otto, Saskia A; Möllmann, Christian

2012-01-01

Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change.

Early Detection of Ecosystem Regime Shifts: A Multiple Method Evaluation for Management Application

PubMed Central

Lindegren, Martin; Dakos, Vasilis; Gröger, Joachim P.; Gårdmark, Anna; Kornilovs, Georgs; Otto, Saskia A.; Möllmann, Christian

2012-01-01

Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change. PMID:22808007

Forest Service R&D — Invasive Insects: Visions for the Future

Treesearch

Kier D. Klepzig; Therese M. Poland; Nancy E. Gillette; Robert A. Haack; Melody A. Keena; Daniel R. Miller; Michael E. Montgomery; Steven J. Seybold; Patrick C. Tobin

2009-01-01

The Forest Service has identified invasive species as one of four significant threats to our Nation’s forest and rangeland ecosystems and likened the problem to a “catastrophic wildfire in slow motion.” Forest Service Research and Development (R&D) has a crucial role in providing insight and options to protect trees, forests, and ecosystems from the threat of...

Ecological effects of large fires on US landscapes: benefit or catastrophe?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keane, Robert E.; Agee, James K.; Fule, Peter; Keeley, Jon E.; Key, Carl H.; Kitchen, Stanley G.; Miller, Richard; Schulte, Lisa A.

2008-01-01

The perception is that today’s large fires are an ecological catastrophe because they burn vast areas with high intensities and severities. However, little is known of the ecological impacts of large fires on both historical and contemporary landscapes. The present paper presents a review of the current knowledge of the effects of large fires in the United States by important ecosystems written by regional experts. The ecosystems are (1) ponderosa pine–Douglas-fir, (2) sagebrush–grasslands, (3) piñon–juniper, (4) chaparral, (5) mixed-conifer, and (6) spruce–fir. This review found that large fires were common on most historical western US landscapes and they will continue to be common today with exceptions. Sagebrush ecosystems are currently experiencing larger, more severe, and more frequent large fires compared to historical conditions due to exotic cheatgrass invasions. Historical large fires in south-west ponderosa pine forest created a mixed severity mosaic dominated by non-lethal surface fires while today’s large fires are mostly high severity crown fires. While large fires play an important role in landscape ecology for most regions, their importance is much less in the dry piñon–juniper forests and sagebrush–grasslands. Fire management must address the role of large fires in maintaining the health of many US fire-dominated ecosystems.

Trophic cascades triggered by overfishing reveal possible mechanisms of ecosystem regime shifts.

PubMed

Daskalov, Georgi M; Grishin, Alexander N; Rodionov, Sergei; Mihneva, Vesselina

2007-06-19

Large-scale transitions between alternative states in ecosystems are known as regime shifts. Once described as healthy and dominated by various marine predators, the Black Sea ecosystem by the late 20th century had experienced anthropogenic impacts such as heavy fishing, cultural eutrophication, and invasions by alien species. We studied changes related to these "natural experiments" to reveal the mechanisms of regime shifts. Two major shifts were detected, the first related to a depletion of marine predators and the second to an outburst of the alien comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi; both shifts were triggered by intense fishing resulting in system-wide trophic cascades. The complex nature of ecosystem responses to human activities calls for more elaborate approaches than currently provided by traditional environmental and fisheries management. This implies challenging existing practices and implementing explanatory models of ecosystem interactions that can better reconcile conservation and ecosystem management ideals.

RESILIENCE AND SUSTAINABILITY IN HUMAN ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

Recent ecological research has uncovered examples of ecosystems that suddenly and sometimes catastrophically change in their composition and in their dynamics in response to incremental changes in external pressure. The possibility of such abrupt changes can have dire consequence...

AN INDEX TO DETECT EXTERNALLY-FORCED DYNAMIC REGIME SHIFTS IN ECOSYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

The concept of dynamic regimes, and nonlinear shifts between regimes, has gained acceptance and importance in ecosystem research. Regimes in ecosystems are identified as states with characteristic species abundances and abiotic conditions. Ecosystems are maintained in particular ...

Ecological modeling from time-series inference: insight into dynamics and stability of intestinal microbiota.

PubMed

Stein, Richard R; Bucci, Vanni; Toussaint, Nora C; Buffie, Charlie G; Rätsch, Gunnar; Pamer, Eric G; Sander, Chris; Xavier, João B

2013-01-01

The intestinal microbiota is a microbial ecosystem of crucial importance to human health. Understanding how the microbiota confers resistance against enteric pathogens and how antibiotics disrupt that resistance is key to the prevention and cure of intestinal infections. We present a novel method to infer microbial community ecology directly from time-resolved metagenomics. This method extends generalized Lotka-Volterra dynamics to account for external perturbations. Data from recent experiments on antibiotic-mediated Clostridium difficile infection is analyzed to quantify microbial interactions, commensal-pathogen interactions, and the effect of the antibiotic on the community. Stability analysis reveals that the microbiota is intrinsically stable, explaining how antibiotic perturbations and C. difficile inoculation can produce catastrophic shifts that persist even after removal of the perturbations. Importantly, the analysis suggests a subnetwork of bacterial groups implicated in protection against C. difficile. Due to its generality, our method can be applied to any high-resolution ecological time-series data to infer community structure and response to external stimuli.

Late Cretaceous restructuring of terrestrial communities facilitated the end-Cretaceous mass extinction in North America.

PubMed

Mitchell, Jonathan S; Roopnarine, Peter D; Angielczyk, Kenneth D

2012-11-13

The sudden environmental catastrophe in the wake of the end-Cretaceous asteroid impact had drastic effects that rippled through animal communities. To explore how these effects may have been exacerbated by prior ecological changes, we used a food-web model to simulate the effects of primary productivity disruptions, such as those predicted to result from an asteroid impact, on ten Campanian and seven Maastrichtian terrestrial localities in North America. Our analysis documents that a shift in trophic structure between Campanian and Maastrichtian communities in North America led Maastrichtian communities to experience more secondary extinction at lower levels of primary production shutdown and possess a lower collapse threshold than Campanian communities. Of particular note is the fact that changes in dinosaur richness had a negative impact on the robustness of Maastrichtian ecosystems against environmental perturbations. Therefore, earlier ecological restructuring may have exacerbated the impact and severity of the end-Cretaceous extinction, at least in North America.

Late Cretaceous restructuring of terrestrial communities facilitated the end-Cretaceous mass extinction in North America

PubMed Central

Roopnarine, Peter D.; Angielczyk, Kenneth D.

2012-01-01

The sudden environmental catastrophe in the wake of the end-Cretaceous asteroid impact had drastic effects that rippled through animal communities. To explore how these effects may have been exacerbated by prior ecological changes, we used a food-web model to simulate the effects of primary productivity disruptions, such as those predicted to result from an asteroid impact, on ten Campanian and seven Maastrichtian terrestrial localities in North America. Our analysis documents that a shift in trophic structure between Campanian and Maastrichtian communities in North America led Maastrichtian communities to experience more secondary extinction at lower levels of primary production shutdown and possess a lower collapse threshold than Campanian communities. Of particular note is the fact that changes in dinosaur richness had a negative impact on the robustness of Maastrichtian ecosystems against environmental perturbations. Therefore, earlier ecological restructuring may have exacerbated the impact and severity of the end-Cretaceous extinction, at least in North America. PMID:23112149

Ecological Modeling from Time-Series Inference: Insight into Dynamics and Stability of Intestinal Microbiota

PubMed Central

Toussaint, Nora C.; Buffie, Charlie G.; Rätsch, Gunnar; Pamer, Eric G.; Sander, Chris; Xavier, João B.

2013-01-01

The intestinal microbiota is a microbial ecosystem of crucial importance to human health. Understanding how the microbiota confers resistance against enteric pathogens and how antibiotics disrupt that resistance is key to the prevention and cure of intestinal infections. We present a novel method to infer microbial community ecology directly from time-resolved metagenomics. This method extends generalized Lotka–Volterra dynamics to account for external perturbations. Data from recent experiments on antibiotic-mediated Clostridium difficile infection is analyzed to quantify microbial interactions, commensal-pathogen interactions, and the effect of the antibiotic on the community. Stability analysis reveals that the microbiota is intrinsically stable, explaining how antibiotic perturbations and C. difficile inoculation can produce catastrophic shifts that persist even after removal of the perturbations. Importantly, the analysis suggests a subnetwork of bacterial groups implicated in protection against C. difficile. Due to its generality, our method can be applied to any high-resolution ecological time-series data to infer community structure and response to external stimuli. PMID:24348232

Decomposers and the fire cycle in a phryganic (East Mediterranean) ecosystem.

PubMed

Arianoutsou-Faraggitaki, M; Margaris, N S

1982-06-01

Dehydrogenase activity, cellulose decomposition, nitrification, and CO2 release were measured for 2 years to estimate the effects of a wildfire over a phryganic ecosystem. In decomposers' subsystem we found that fire mainly affected the nitrification process during the whole period, and soil respiration for the second post-fire year, when compared with the control site. Our data suggest that after 3-4 months the activity of microbial decomposers is almost the same at the two sites, suggesting that fire is not a catastrophic event, but a simple perturbation common to Mediterranean-type ecosystems.

Compensatory mechanisms in fish populations: Literature reviews: Volume 2, Compensation in fish populations subject to catastrophic impact: Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jude, D.J.; Mansfield, P.J.; Schneeberger, P.J.

1987-05-01

This study comprises an extensive literature review, critical evaluations of case histories, and considered recommendations for future research on the mechanisms and extent of compensation by various fish species subject to catastrophic impacts. ''Catastrophic impact'' was defined as an event which removes some limitation (such as food or space) on a fish population. Those events studied included new species introduction, toxic spills, exploitation of specific fish populations, and drawdown. The fish studied each had more than one compensatory mechanism available, and thus were able to respond to a catastrophic event even if an option was removed. Predation, overfishing, competition, disease,more » and parasitism are all potential catastrophies, but were found not to cause a catastrophic impact (except in special cases). In general, compensatory responses were determined to vary widely, even for species which perform fairly similar functions in an ecosystem. The extensive nature of this study, however, pointed up the many data gaps in the existing literature; recommendations are therefore made for followup research and expansion of ongoing monitoring programs, based on an evaluation of their relative importance.« less

Ecosystem shifts under climate change - a multi-model analysis from ISI-MIP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warszawski, Lila; Beerling, David; Clark, Douglas; Friend, Andrew; Ito, Akihito; Kahana, Ron; Keribin, Rozenn; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark; Lucht, Wolfgang; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Tito Rademacher, Tim; Schaphoff, Sibyll

2013-04-01

Dramatic ecosystem shifts, relating to vegetation composition and water and carbon stocks and fluxes, are potential consequences of climate change in the twenty-first century. Shifting climatic conditions, resulting in changes in biogeochemical properties of the ecosystem, will render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to continue to survive in their current habitat. The potential for major shifts in biomes globally will also have severe consequences for the humans who rely on vital ecosystem services. Here we employ a novel metric of ecosystem shift to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty in these shifts at different levels of global warming, based on the response of seven biogeochemical Earth models to different future climate scenarios, in the context of the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Based on this ensemble, 15% of the Earth's land surface will experience severe ecosystem shifts at 2°C degrees of global warming above 1980-2010 levels. This figure rises monotonically with global mean temperature for all models included in this study, reaching a median value of 60% of the land surface in a 4°C warmer world. At both 2°C and 4°C of warming, the most pronounced shifts occur in south-eastern India and south-western China, large swathes of the northern lattitudes above 60°N, the Amazon region and sub-Saharan Africa. Where dynamic vegetation composition is modelled, these shifts correspond to significant reductions in the land surface of vunerable vegetation types. We show that global mean temperature is a robust predictor of ecosystem shifts, whilst the spread across impact models is the greatest contributor to uncertainty.

Development Strategy for Effective Sampling to Detect Possible Nutrient Fluxes in Oligotrophic Coastal Reef Waters in the Caribbean

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

catastrophic events (eg, hurricanes, tsuna- mis, floodings, harmful algal blooms and coral bleachings ). These changes have been known to jeopardise the...SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 20090814035 14. ABSTRACT The stress contributed by nutrients to the coral reef ecosystem is among many problems that may be resolved using...Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami The stress contributed by nutrients to the coral reef ecosystem is among many

Catastrophic Regime Shift in Water Reservoirs and São Paulo Water Supply Crisis.

PubMed

Coutinho, Renato M; Kraenkel, Roberto A; Prado, Paulo I

2015-01-01

The relation between rainfall and water accumulated in reservoirs comprises nonlinear feedbacks. Here we show that they may generate alternative equilibrium regimes, one of high water-volume, the other of low water-volume. Reservoirs can be seen as socio-environmental systems at risk of regime shifts, characteristic of tipping point transitions. We analyze data from stored water, rainfall, and water inflow and outflow in the main reservoir serving the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil, by means of indicators of critical regime shifts, and find a strong signal of a transition. We furthermore build a mathematical model that gives a mechanistic view of the dynamics and demonstrates that alternative stable states are an expected property of water reservoirs. We also build a stochastic version of this model that fits well to the data. These results highlight the broader aspect that reservoir management must account for their intrinsic bistability, and should benefit from dynamical systems theory. Our case study illustrates the catastrophic consequences of failing to do so.

A World-System Approach to Post-Catastrophe International Relief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Letukas, Lynn; Barnshaw, John

2008-01-01

As our understanding of disaster shifts from an event concentrated in time and space to a social occasion occurring across time and space, so too must our explanations of disaster shift from theories of the middle range to broader theoretical frameworks. We explore the world-system approach in an effort to understand the upper limits of theory for…

Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic.

PubMed

Beaugrand, Grégory; Edwards, Martin; Brander, Keith; Luczak, Christophe; Ibanez, Frederic

2008-11-01

Warming of the global climate is now unequivocal and its impact on Earth' functional units has become more apparent. Here, we show that marine ecosystems are not equally sensitive to climate change and reveal a critical thermal boundary where a small increase in temperature triggers abrupt ecosystem shifts seen across multiple trophic levels. This large-scale boundary is located in regions where abrupt ecosystem shifts have been reported in the North Atlantic sector and thereby allows us to link these shifts by a global common phenomenon. We show that these changes alter the biodiversity and carrying capacity of ecosystems and may, combined with fishing, precipitate the reduction of some stocks of Atlantic cod already severely impacted by exploitation. These findings offer a way to anticipate major ecosystem changes and to propose adaptive strategies for marine exploited resources such as cod in order to minimize social and economic consequences.

Children's selective attention to pain and avoidance behaviour: the role of child and parental catastrophizing about pain.

PubMed

Vervoort, Tine; Trost, Zina; Van Ryckeghem, Dimitri M L

2013-10-01

The present study investigated selective attention to pain in children, its implications for child avoidance behaviour, and the moderating role of dimensions comprising child and parental catastrophizing about pain (ie, rumination, magnification, and helplessness). Participants were 59 children (31 boys) aged 10-16 years and one of their parents (41 mothers). Children performed a dot-probe task in which child facial pain displays of varying pain expressiveness were presented. Child avoidance behaviour was indexed by child pain tolerance during a cold-pressor task. Children and parents completed measures of child and parent pain catastrophizing, respectively. Findings indicated that both the nature of child selective attention to pain and the impact of selective attention upon child avoidance behaviour were differentially sensitive to specific dimensions of child and parental catastrophizing. Specifically, findings showed greater tendency to shift attention away from pain faces (i.e.,, attentional avoidance) among children reporting greater pain magnification. A similar pattern was observed in terms of parental characteristics, such that children increasingly shifted attention away from pain with increasing levels of parental rumination and helplessness. Furthermore, child attentional avoidance was associated with greater avoidance behaviour (i.e., lower pain tolerance) among children reporting high levels of pain magnification and those whose parents reported greater rumination about pain. The current findings corroborate catastrophizing as a multidimensional construct that may differentially impact outcomes and attest to the importance of assessing both child and parental characteristics in relation to child pain-related attention and avoidance behaviour. Further research directions are discussed. Copyright © 2013 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biomass, size, and trophic status of top predators in the Pacific Ocean.

PubMed

Sibert, John; Hampton, John; Kleiber, Pierre; Maunder, Mark

2006-12-15

Fisheries have removed at least 50 million tons of tuna and other top-level predators from the Pacific Ocean pelagic ecosystem since 1950, leading to concerns about a catastrophic reduction in population biomass and the collapse of oceanic food chains. We analyzed all available data from Pacific tuna fisheries for 1950-2004 to provide comprehensive estimates of fishery impacts on population biomass and size structure. Current biomass ranges among species from 36 to 91% of the biomass predicted in the absence of fishing, a level consistent with or higher than standard fisheries management targets. Fish larger than 175 centimeters fork length have decreased from 5% to approximately 1% of the total population. The trophic level of the catch has decreased slightly, but there is no detectable decrease in the trophic level of the population. These results indicate substantial, though not catastrophic, impacts of fisheries on these top-level predators and minor impacts on the ecosystem in the Pacific Ocean.

Vegetation and hydrology of land-margin ecosystems: the mangroves of South Florida in relation to disturbance, global change and response to restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Best, G.R.; Smith, T.J.

1999-01-01

The USGS Florida Caribbean Science Center's Restoration Ecology Branch and Florida International University is conducting research on disturbance, global change and restoration of land margin ecosystems of South Florida. Criticial research for the restoration of these systems involves understanding the responses of mangrove forests to changes in the quality, quantity, timing and distribution of freshwater inflows, response to global change (e.g. sea level rise) and catastrophic disturbances such as hurricanes.

Architecture of collapse: regime shift and recovery in an hierarchically structured marine ecosystem.

PubMed

Daskalov, Georgi M; Boicenco, Laura; Grishin, Alexandre N; Lazar, Luminita; Mihneva, Vesselina; Shlyakhov, Vladislav A; Zengin, Mustafa

2017-04-01

By the late 20th century, a series of events or 'natural experiments', for example the depletion of apex predators, extreme eutrophication and blooms of invasive species, had suggested that the Black Sea could be considered as a large ecosystem 'laboratory'. The events resulted in regime shifts cascading through all trophic levels, disturbing ecosystem functioning and damaging the water environment. Causal pathways by which the external (hydroclimate, overfishing) and internal (food web interactions) drivers provoke regime shifts are investigated. Statistical data analyses supported by an interpretative framework based on hierarchical ecosystem theory revealed mechanisms of hierarchical incorporation of environmental factors into the ecosystem. Evidence links Atlantic teleconnections to Black Sea hydroclimate, which together with fishing shapes variability in fish stocks. The hydroclimatic signal is conveyed through the food web via changes in productivity at all levels, to planktivorous fish. Fluctuating fish abundance is believed to induce a lagged change in competitor jelly plankton that cascades down to phytoplankton and influences water quality. Deprived of the stabilising role of apex predators, the Black Sea's hierarchical ecosystem organisation is susceptible to both environmental and anthropogenic stresses, and increased fishing makes fish stock collapses highly probable. When declining stocks are confronted with burgeoning fishing effort associated with the inability of fishery managers and decision-makers to adapt rapidly to changes in fish abundance, there is overfishing and stock collapse. Management procedures are ineffective at handling complex phenomena such as ecosystem regime shifts because of the shortage of suitable explanatory models. The proposed concepts and models reported here relate the hydroclimate, overfishing and invasive species to shifts in ecosystem functioning and water quality, unravelling issues such as the causality of ecosystem interactions and mechanisms and offering potential for finding ways to reverse regime shifts. We advocate a management approach aiming at restoring ecosystem hierarchy that might mitigate the costly consequences of regime shifts. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Stationary moments, diffusion limits, and extinction times for logistic growth with random catastrophes.

PubMed

Schlomann, Brandon H

2018-06-06

A central problem in population ecology is understanding the consequences of stochastic fluctuations. Analytically tractable models with Gaussian driving noise have led to important, general insights, but they fail to capture rare, catastrophic events, which are increasingly observed at scales ranging from global fisheries to intestinal microbiota. Due to mathematical challenges, growth processes with random catastrophes are less well characterized and it remains unclear how their consequences differ from those of Gaussian processes. In the face of a changing climate and predicted increases in ecological catastrophes, as well as increased interest in harnessing microbes for therapeutics, these processes have never been more relevant. To better understand them, I revisit here a differential equation model of logistic growth coupled to density-independent catastrophes that arrive as a Poisson process, and derive new analytic results that reveal its statistical structure. First, I derive exact expressions for the model's stationary moments, revealing a single effective catastrophe parameter that largely controls low order statistics. Then, I use weak convergence theorems to construct its Gaussian analog in a limit of frequent, small catastrophes, keeping the stationary population mean constant for normalization. Numerically computing statistics along this limit shows how they transform as the dynamics shifts from catastrophes to diffusions, enabling quantitative comparisons. For example, the mean time to extinction increases monotonically by orders of magnitude, demonstrating significantly higher extinction risk under catastrophes than under diffusions. Together, these results provide insight into a wide range of stochastic dynamical systems important for ecology and conservation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benefits of the fire mitigation ecosystem service in the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge, Virginia, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parthum, Bryan M.; Pindilli, Emily J.; Hogan, Dianna

2017-01-01

 The Great Dismal Swamp (GDS) National Wildlife Refuge delivers multiple ecosystem services, including air quality and human health via fire mitigation. Our analysis estimates benefits of this service through its potential to reduce catastrophic wildfire related impacts on the health of nearby human populations. We used a combination of high-frequency satellite data, ground sensors, and air quality indices to determine periods of public exposure to dense emissions from a wildfire within the GDS. We examined emergency department (ED) visitation in seven Virginia counties during these periods, applied measures of cumulative Relative Risk to derive the effects of wildfire smoke exposure on ED visitation rates, and estimated economic losses using regional Cost of Illness values established within the US Environmental Protection Agency BenMAP framework. Our results estimated the value of one avoided catastrophic wildfire in the refuge to be \\$3.69 million (2015 USD), or \\$306 per hectare of burn. Reducing the frequency or severity of extensive, deep burning peatland wildfire events has additional benefits not included in this estimate, including avoided costs related to fire suppression during a burn, carbon dioxide emissions, impacts to wildlife, and negative outcomes associated with recreation and regional tourism. We suggest the societal value of the public health benefits alone provides a significant incentive for refuge mangers to implement strategies that will reduce the severity of catastrophic wildfires.

Benefits of the fire mitigation ecosystem service in The Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge, Virginia, USA.

PubMed

Parthum, Bryan; Pindilli, Emily; Hogan, Dianna

2017-12-01

The Great Dismal Swamp (GDS) National Wildlife Refuge delivers multiple ecosystem services, including air quality and human health via fire mitigation. Our analysis estimates benefits of this service through its potential to reduce catastrophic wildfire related impacts on the health of nearby human populations. We used a combination of high-frequency satellite data, ground sensors, and air quality indices to determine periods of public exposure to dense emissions from a wildfire within the GDS. We examined emergency department (ED) visitation in seven Virginia counties during these periods, applied measures of cumulative Relative Risk to derive the effects of wildfire smoke exposure on ED visitation rates, and estimated economic losses using regional Cost of Illness values established within the US Environmental Protection Agency BenMAP framework. Our results estimated the value of one avoided catastrophic wildfire in the refuge to be $3.69 million (2015 USD), or $306 per hectare of burn. Reducing the frequency or severity of extensive, deep burning peatland wildfire events has additional benefits not included in this estimate, including avoided costs related to fire suppression during a burn, carbon dioxide emissions, impacts to wildlife, and negative outcomes associated with recreation and regional tourism. We suggest the societal value of the public health benefits alone provides a significant incentive for refuge mangers to implement strategies that will reduce the severity of catastrophic wildfires. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Mutual benefits through formalized international collaboration on biological control of weeds with plant pathogens

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the U.S., introduced invasive weeds have catastrophic effects on agricultural, aquatic, rangeland, riparian, and natural ecosystems. Often the only economically feasible means for controlling these weeds is classical biological control through the introduction of natural enemies, including plant ...

Rebooting Bioresilience: A Multi-OMICS Approach to Tackle Global Catastrophic Biological Risks and Next-Generation Biothreats.

PubMed

Kambouris, Manousos E; Manoussopoulos, Yiannis; Kantzanou, Maria; Velegraki, Aristea; Gaitanis, Georgios; Arabatzis, Michalis; Patrinos, George P

2018-01-01

Global Catastrophic Biological Risks (GCBRs) refer to biological events-natural, deliberate, and accidental-of a global and lasting impact. This challenges the life scientists to raise their game on two hitherto neglected innovation frontiers: a veritable "futures" thinking to "think the unthinkable," and "systems thinking" so as to see both the trees and the forest when it comes to GCBRs. This innovation analysis article outlines the promise of Omics systems science biotechnologies, for example, to deploy rapid fire diagnostics for health security crises at GCBR level, possibly involving neopathogens and/or incurring epidemics (e.g., severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS] and Ebola) that collectively threaten the lives of global society and interdependent biological ecosystems. Moreover, Omics encourages thinking beyond immediacy and in long-term strategies for biopreparedness and response innovation when the timelines are aggressive and compressed in response to crises such as GCBRs, but also to non-global but surging, multiple threats occurring as successive, overlapping, or distinct events, rather than as distinct entities-a prospect enforcing a reboot in Bioresilience. We define Next-Generation Bioresilience as "a systems approach against natural, accidental and perpetrated GCBRs using Omics technologies, and a shift in mentality, whereby the systems approach is expanded to include multiple plausible futures and expose unchecked assumptions attendant to risks, beyond technological determinism." In sum, it is time to think about the realistic potential of Omics biotechnologies beyond clinical practice and precision medicine so as to harness the opportunities and address the uncertainties associated not only with GCBRs but also with other emerging Omics applications in health and society.

Improving reseeding success after catastrophic wildfire with surfactant seed coating technology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The application of soil surfactants in wildfire-affected ecosystems has been limited due to logistical and economic constraints associated with the standard practice of using large quantities of irrigation water as the surfactant carrier. We tested a potential solution to this problem that uses seed...

Climate change and potential reversal of regime shifts in desrt ecosystems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Globally, regime shifts from grasslands to shrublands (i.e., desertification) in arid and semiarid ecosystems are thought to be irreversible, similar to state changes in other ecosystems. The consequences of desertification, including loss of soil and nutrients to wind and water erosion, reductions ...

Detection and Assessment of Ecosystem Regime Shifts from Fisher Information

EPA Science Inventory

Ecosystem regime shifts, which are long-term system reorganizations, have profound implications for sustainability. There is a great need for indicators of regime shifts, particularly methods that are applicable to data from real systems. We have developed a form of Fisher info...

Preventing the collapse of the Baltic cod stock through an ecosystem-based management approach

PubMed Central

Lindegren, Martin; Möllmann, Christian; Nielsen, Anders; Stenseth, Nils C.

2009-01-01

Worldwide a number of fish stocks have collapsed because of overfishing and climate-induced ecosystem changes. Developing ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) to prevent these catastrophic events in the future requires ecological models incorporating both internal food-web dynamics and external drivers such as fishing and climate. Using a stochastic food-web model for a large marine ecosystem (i.e., the Baltic Sea) hosting a commercially important cod stock, we were able to reconstruct the history of the stock. Moreover we demonstrate that in hindsight the collapse could only have been avoidable by adapting fishing pressure to environmental conditions and food-web interactions. The modeling approach presented here represents a significant advance for EBFM, the application of which is important for sustainable resource management in the future. PMID:19706557

Fire history of Everglades National Park and Big Cypress National Preserve, southern Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Thomas J.; Foster, Ann M.; Jones, John W.

2015-01-01

Fire has been used as a management tool in various ecosystems around the world. Prairies, grasslands, and savannas are fire-maintained ecosystems where fire is used to deter invasion by shrubs and trees (Grant and others, 2009; Scheintaub and others, 2009). Similarly, fire plays an important role in woodlands and forests by influencing species composition and succession such, as the use of fire in coniferous forests to prevent encroachment by hardwoods (Phillippe and others, 2011). Fire also has been used to manage wetland ecosystems for more than 50 years (Lynch, 1941; Frost, 1995). Uses have included returning marshes to early successional states, increasing forage for wildlife (Lynch, 1941). In all fire-influenced ecosystems, prescribed burns are routinely used to reduce fuel loads, reducing the possibility of catastrophic fires.

Preventing regime shifts on the Colorado Plateau: Application of ecological threshold concepts to land management decision making

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Investigating the mechanisms responsible for ecological thresholds is essential to understanding processes leading to ecosystem regime shifts. Dryland ecosystems are especially prone to threshold behavior wherein stressor-mediated alteration of patterns and processes can shift systems to alternative...

Groundwater ecosystem resilience to organic contaminations: microbial and geochemical dynamics throughout the 5-year life cycle of a surrogate ethanol blend fuel plume.

PubMed

Ma, Jie; Nossa, Carlos W; Alvarez, Pedro J J

2015-09-01

The capacity of groundwater ecosystem to recover from contamination by organic chemicals is a vital concern for environmental scientists. A pilot-scale aquifer system was used to investigate the long-term dynamics of contaminants, groundwater geochemistry, and microbial community structure (by 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing and quantitative real-time PCR) throughout the 5-year life cycle of a surrogate ethanol blend fuel plume (10% ethanol + 50 mg/L benzene + 50 mg/L toluene). Two-year continuous ethanol-blended release significantly changed the groundwater geochemistry (resulted in anaerobic, low pH, and organotrophic conditions) and increased bacterial and archaeal populations by 82- and 314-fold respectively. Various anaerobic heterotrophs (fermenters, acetogens, methanogens, and hydrocarbon degraders) were enriched. Two years after the release was shut off, all contaminants and their degradation byproducts disappeared and groundwater geochemistry completely restored to the pre-release states (aerobic, neutral pH, and oligotrophic). Bacterial and archaeal populations declined by 18- and 45-fold respectively (relative to the time of shut off). Microbial community structure reverted towards the pre-release states and alpha diversity indices rebounded, suggesting the resilience of microbial community to ethanol blend releases. We also found shifts from O2-sensitive methanogens (e.g., Methanobacterium) to methanogens that are not so sensitive to O2 (e.g., Methanosarcina and Methanocella), which is likely to contribute to the persistence of methanogens and methane generation following the source removal. Overall, the rapid disappearance of contaminants and their metabolites, rebound of geochemical footprints, and resilience of microbial community unequivocally document the natural capacity of groundwater ecosystem to attenuate and recover from a large volume of catastrophic spill of ethanol-based biofuel. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shape Shifting Satellites in Binary Near-Earth Asteroids: Do Meteoroid Impacts Play a Role in BYORP Orbital Evolution?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubincam, David Parry

2012-01-01

Less than catastrophic meteoroid impacts over 10(exp 5) years may change the shape of small rubble-pile satellites in binary NEAs, lengthening the average BYORP (binary Yarkovsky-Radzievskii-Paddack) rate of orbital evolution. An estimate of shape-shifting meteoroid fluxes give numbers close enough to causing random walks in the semimajor axis of binary systems to warrant further investigation

Estimating forest fuels in the Southwest using forest inventory data

Treesearch

Krista M. Gebert; Ervin G. Schuster; Sharon Woudenberg; Renee O' Brien

2008-01-01

Catastrophic wildfires occurring over the last several years have led land management agencies to focus on reducing hazardous fuels. These wildland fuel reduction projects will likely be concentrated in shorter interval, fire-adapted ecosystems that have been moderately or significantly altered from their historical range. But where are these situations located? What...

Assessment of habitat threats to shrublands in the Great Basin: a case study

Treesearch

Mary M. Rowland; Lowell H. Suring; Michael J. Wisdom

2010-01-01

The sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystem is one of the most imperiled in the United States. In the Great Basin ecoregion and elsewhere, catastrophic wildland fires are often followed by the invasion of cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.), eliminating or altering millions of hectares of sagebrush and other shrublands. Sagebrush in...

Trees of Life: Saving Tropical Forests and Their Biological Wealth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Kenton; Tangley, Laura

Staggering statistics and dramatic headlines about the destruction of rain forests, the world's richest ecosystems, are only a small part of the devastating story of global deforestation. This volume provides comprehensive coverage of this complex scientific and political catastrophe-in-the-making and examines the costs and the consequences, in…

Changing perspectives on pearly mussels, North America's most imperiled animals

Treesearch

David L. Strayer; John A. Downing; Wendell R. Haag; Timothy L. King; James B. Layzer; Teresa J. Newton; S. Jerrine Nichols

2004-01-01

Pearly mussels (Unionacea) are widespread, abundant, and important in freshwater ecosystems around the world. Catastrophic declines in pearly mussel populations in North America and other parts of the world have led to a flurry of research on mussel biology, ecology, and conservation. Recent research on mussel feeding, life history, spatial...

Shifts in fisheries management: adapting to regime shifts

PubMed Central

King, Jacquelynne R.; McFarlane, Gordon A.; Punt, André E.

2015-01-01

For many years, fisheries management was based on optimizing yield and maintaining a target biomass, with little regard given to low-frequency environmental forcing. However, this policy was often unsuccessful. In the last two to three decades, fisheries science and management have undergone a shift towards balancing sustainable yield with conservation, with the goal of including ecosystem considerations in decision-making frameworks. Scientific understanding of low-frequency climate–ocean variability, which is manifested as ecosystem regime shifts and states, has led to attempts to incorporate these shifts and states into fisheries assessment and management. To date, operationalizing these attempts to provide tactical advice has met with limited success. We review efforts to incorporate regime shifts and states into the assessment and management of fisheries resources, propose directions for future investigation and outline a potential framework to include regime shifts and changes in ecosystem states into fisheries management.

Quantifying patterns of change in marine ecosystem response to multiple pressures.

PubMed

Large, Scott I; Fay, Gavin; Friedland, Kevin D; Link, Jason S

2015-01-01

The ability to understand and ultimately predict ecosystem response to multiple pressures is paramount to successfully implement ecosystem-based management. Thresholds shifts and nonlinear patterns in ecosystem responses can be used to determine reference points that identify levels of a pressure that may drastically alter ecosystem status, which can inform management action. However, quantifying ecosystem reference points has proven elusive due in large part to the multi-dimensional nature of both ecosystem pressures and ecosystem responses. We used ecological indicators, synthetic measures of ecosystem status and functioning, to enumerate important ecosystem attributes and to reduce the complexity of the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NES LME). Random forests were used to quantify the importance of four environmental and four anthropogenic pressure variables to the value of ecological indicators, and to quantify shifts in aggregate ecological indicator response along pressure gradients. Anthropogenic pressure variables were critical defining features and were able to predict an average of 8-13% (up to 25-66% for individual ecological indicators) of the variation in ecological indicator values, whereas environmental pressures were able to predict an average of 1-5 % (up to 9-26% for individual ecological indicators) of ecological indicator variation. Each pressure variable predicted a different suite of ecological indicator's variation and the shapes of ecological indicator responses along pressure gradients were generally nonlinear. Threshold shifts in ecosystem response to exploitation, the most important pressure variable, occurred when commercial landings were 20 and 60% of total surveyed biomass. Although present, threshold shifts in ecosystem response to environmental pressures were much less important, which suggests that anthropogenic pressures have significantly altered the ecosystem structure and functioning of the NES LME. Gradient response curves provide ecologically informed transformations of pressure variables to explain patterns of ecosystem structure and functioning. By concurrently identifying thresholds for a suite of ecological indicator responses to multiple pressures, we demonstrate that ecosystem reference points can be evaluated and used to support ecosystem-based management.

Biological research on fire in the West

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2005-01-01

Wildland fires are a natural feature of many ecosystems, including grasslands, forests, and shrublands. How-ever, years of fire exclusion have led to accumulations of dead fuels and increases in the density of fire-intolerant species. In most western states, recent fires burning in these altered ecosystems have caused significant damage and huge economic losses to homes, busi-nesses, and communities. They also have dis-turbed forests and rangelands as well as their associated watersheds, plants, and animals. Every western state is concerned about dam-age from such catastrophic fires, and there is strong interest from all sectors in prevent-ing and reducing the resulting damage in the future. There is also interest in the use of fire as a management tool for reducing hazards and restoring damaged ecosystems and for returning fire to its natural role in wilderness ecosystems.

Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change

Treesearch

Patrick Gonzalez; Ronald P. Neilson; James M. Lenihan; Raymond J. Drapek

2010-01-01

Climate change threatens to shift vegetation, disrupting ecosystems and damaging human well-being. Field observations in boreal, temperate and tropical ecosystems have detected biome changes in the 20th century, yet a lack of spatial data on vulnerability hinders organizations that manage natural resources from identifying priority areas for adaptation measures. We...

Insurance in a climate of change.

PubMed

Mills, Evan

2005-08-12

Catastrophe insurance provides peace of mind and financial security. Climate change can have adverse impacts on insurance affordability and availability, potentially slowing the growth of the industry and shifting more of the burden to governments and individuals. Most forms of insurance are vulnerable, including property, liability, health, and life. It is incumbent on insurers, their regulators, and the policy community to develop a better grasp of the physical and business risks. Insurers are well positioned to participate in public-private initiatives to monitor loss trends, improve catastrophe modeling, address the causes of climate change, and prepare for and adapt to the impacts.

Ecological Network Indicators of Ecosystem Status and Change in the Baltic Sea

PubMed Central

Tomczak, Maciej T.; Heymans, Johanna J.; Yletyinen, Johanna; Niiranen, Susa; Otto, Saskia A.; Blenckner, Thorsten

2013-01-01

Several marine ecosystems under anthropogenic pressure have experienced shifts from one ecological state to another. In the central Baltic Sea, the regime shift of the 1980s has been associated with food-web reorganization and redirection of energy flow pathways. These long-term dynamics from 1974 to 2006 have been simulated here using a food-web model forced by climate and fishing. Ecological network analysis was performed to calculate indices of ecosystem change. The model replicated the regime shift. The analyses of indicators suggested that the system’s resilience was higher prior to 1988 and lower thereafter. The ecosystem topology also changed from a web-like structure to a linearized food-web. PMID:24116045

Post-fire reconstructions of fire intensity from fire severity data: quantifying the role of spatial variability of fire intensity on forest dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Patrick; Oborne, Lisa

2015-04-01

Large, high-intensity fires have direct and long-lasting effects on forest ecosystems and present a serious threat to human life and property. However, even within the most catastrophic fires there is important variability in local-scale intensity that has important ramifications for forest mortality and regeneration. Quantifying this variability is difficult due to the rarity of catastrophic fire events, the extreme conditions at the time of the fires, and their large spatial extent. Instead fire severity is typically measured or estimated from observed patterns of vegetation mortality; however, differences in species- and size-specific responses to fires often makes fire severity a poor proxy for fire intensity. We developed a statistical method using simple, plot-based measurements of individual tree mortality to simultaneously estimate plot-level fire intensity and species-specific mortality patterns as a function of tree size. We applied our approach to an area of forest burned in the catastrophic Black Saturday fires that occurred near Melbourne, Australia, in February 2009. Despite being the most devastating fire in the past 70 years and our plots being located in the area that experienced some of the most intense fires in the 350,000 ha fire complex, we found that the estimated fire intensity was highly variable at multiple spatial scales. All eight tree species in our study differed in their susceptibility to fire-induced mortality, particularly among the largest size classes. We also found that seedling height and species richness of the post-fire seedling communities were both positively correlated with fire intensity. Spatial variability in disturbance intensity has important, but poorly understood, consequences for the short- and long-term dynamics of forests in the wake of catastrophic wildfires. Our study provides a tool to estimate fire intensity after a fire has passed, allowing new opportunities for linking spatial variability in fire intensity to forest ecosystem dynamics.

Ecosystem regime shifts disrupt trophic structure.

PubMed

Hempson, Tessa N; Graham, Nicholas A J; MacNeil, M Aaron; Hoey, Andrew S; Wilson, Shaun K

2018-01-01

Regime shifts between alternative stable ecosystem states are becoming commonplace due to the combined effects of local stressors and global climate change. Alternative states are characterized as substantially different in form and function from pre-disturbance states, disrupting the delivery of ecosystem services and functions. On coral reefs, regime shifts are typically characterized by a change in the benthic composition from coral to macroalgal dominance. Such fundamental shifts in the benthos are anticipated to impact associated fish communities that are reliant on the reef for food and shelter, yet there is limited understanding of how regime shifts propagate through the fish community over time, relative to initial or recovery conditions. This study addresses this knowledge gap using long-term data of coral reef regime shifts and recovery on Seychelles reefs following the 1998 mass bleaching event. It shows how trophic structure of the reef fish community becomes increasingly dissimilar between alternative reef ecosystem states (regime-shifted vs. recovering) with time since disturbance. Regime-shifted reefs developed a concave trophic structure, with increased biomass in base trophic levels as herbivorous species benefitted from increased algal resources. Mid trophic level species, including specialists such as corallivores, declined with loss of coral habitat, while biomass was retained in upper trophic levels by large-bodied, generalist invertivores. Recovering reefs also experienced an initial decline in mid trophic level biomass, but moved toward a bottom-heavy pyramid shape, with a wide range of feeding groups (e.g., planktivores, corallivores, omnivores) represented at mid trophic levels. Given the importance of coral reef fishes in maintaining the ecological function of coral reef ecosystems and their associated fisheries, understanding the effects of regime shifts on these communities is essential to inform decisions that enhance ecological resilience and economic sustainability. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Effects of fire and emergency seeding on hillslope erosion in southern California chaparral

Treesearch

Pete Wohlgemuth; Jan Beyers; C.D. Wakeman; S.G. Conard

2002-01-01

Catastrophic wildfires can set the stage for massive postfire erosion and sedimentation in southern California chaparral ecosystems with the onset of heavy winter rainstorms. As a mitigation measure, land managers have typically used grass seeding as a standard emergency rehabilitation technique. However, the effectiveness of grass seeding as a watershed protection...

The influence of experimental wind disturbance on forest fuels and fire characteristics

Treesearch

Jeffery B. Cannon; Joseph J. O' Brien; Louise Loudermilk; Matthew Dickinson; Chris J. Peterson

2014-01-01

Current theory in disturbance ecology predicts that extreme disturbances in rapid succession can lead to dramatic changes in species composition or ecosystem processes due to interactions among disturbances. However, the extent to which less catastrophic, yet chronic, disturbances such as wind damage and fire interact is not well studied. In this study, we simulated...

Benthic algae compensate for phytoplankton losses in large aquatic ecosystems.

PubMed

Brothers, Soren; Vadeboncoeur, Yvonne; Sibley, Paul

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic activities can induce major trophic shifts in aquatic systems, yet we have an incomplete understanding of the implication of such shifts on ecosystem function and on primary production (PP) in particular. In recent decades, phytoplankton biomass and production in the Laurentian Great Lakes have declined in response to reduced nutrient concentrations and invasive mussels. However, the increases in water clarity associated with declines in phytoplankton may have positive effects on benthic PP at the ecosystem scale. Have these lakes experienced oligotrophication (a reduction of algal production), or simply a shift in autotrophic structure with no net decline in PP? Benthic contributions to ecosystem PP are rarely measured in large aquatic systems, but our calculations based on productivity rates from the Great Lakes indicate that a significant proportion (up to one half, in Lake Huron) of their whole-lake production may be benthic. The large declines (5-45%) in phytoplankton production in the Great Lakes from the 1970s to 2000s may be substantially compensated by benthic PP, which increased by up to 190%. Thus, the autotrophic productive capacity of large aquatic ecosystems may be relatively resilient to shifts in trophic status, due to a redirection of production to the near-shore benthic zone, and large lakes may exhibit shifts in autotrophic structure analogous to the regime shifts seen in shallow lakes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The importance of within-system spatial variation in drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts

PubMed Central

Fisher, J. A. D.; Casini, M.; Frank, K. T.; Möllmann, C.; Leggett, W. C.; Daskalov, G.

2015-01-01

Comparative analyses of the dynamics of exploited marine ecosystems have led to differing hypotheses regarding the primary causes of observed regime shifts, while many ecosystems have apparently not undergone regime shifts. These varied responses may be partly explained by the decade-old recognition that within-system spatial heterogeneity in key climate and anthropogenic drivers may be important, as recent theoretical examinations have concluded that spatial heterogeneity in environmental characteristics may diminish the tendency for regime shifts. Here, we synthesize recent, empirical within-system spatio-temporal analyses of some temperate and subarctic large marine ecosystems in which regime shifts have (and have not) occurred. Examples from the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bengula Current, North Sea, Barents Sea and Eastern Scotian Shelf reveal the largely neglected importance of considering spatial variability in key biotic and abiotic influences and species movements in the context of evaluating and predicting regime shifts. We highlight both the importance of understanding the scale-dependent spatial dynamics of climate influences and key predator–prey interactions to unravel the dynamics of regime shifts, and the utility of spatial downscaling of proposed mechanisms (as evident in the North Sea and Barents Sea) as a means of evaluating hypotheses originally derived from among-system comparisons.

FISHER INFORMATION AND ECOSYSTEM REGIME CHANGES

EPA Science Inventory

Following Fisher’s work, we propose two different expressions for the Fisher Information along with Shannon Information as a means of detecting and assessing shifts between alternative ecosystem regimes. Regime shifts are a consequence of bifurcations in the dynamics of an ecosys...

Globalization, marine regime shifts and the Soviet Union

PubMed Central

Österblom, Henrik; Folke, Carl

2015-01-01

Regime shifts have been observed in marine ecosystems around the world, with climate and fishing suggested as major drivers of such shifts. The global and regional dynamics of the climate system have been studied in this context, and efforts to develop an analogous understanding of fishing activities are developing. Here, we investigate the timing of pelagic marine regime shifts in relation to the emergence of regional and global fishing activities of the Soviet Union. Our investigation of official catch statistics reflects that the Soviet Union was a major fishing actor in all large marine ecosystems where regime shifts have been documented, including in ecosystems where overfishing has been established as a key driver of these changes (in the Baltic and Black Seas and the Scotian Shelf). Globalization of Soviet Union fishing activities pushed exploitation to radically new levels and triggered regional and global governance responses for improved management. Since then, exploitation levels have remained and increased with new actors involved. Based on our exploratory work, we propose that a deeper understanding of the role of global fishing actors is central for improved management of marine ecosystems.

Ocean acidification causes ecosystem shifts via altered competitive interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroeker, Kristy J.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Gambi, Maria Cristina

2013-02-01

Ocean acidification represents a pervasive environmental change that is predicted to affect a wide range of species, yet our understanding of the emergent ecosystem impacts is very limited. Many studies report detrimental effects of acidification on single species in lab studies, especially those with calcareous shells or skeletons. Observational studies using naturally acidified ecosystems have shown profound shifts away from such calcareous species, and there has been an assumption that direct impacts of acidification on sensitive species drive most ecosystem responses. We tested an alternative hypothesis that species interactions attenuate or amplify the direct effects of acidification on individual species. Here, we show that altered competitive dynamics between calcareous species and fleshy seaweeds drive significant ecosystem shifts in acidified conditions. Although calcareous species recruited and grew at similar rates in ambient and low pH conditions during early successional stages, they were rapidly overgrown by fleshy seaweeds later in succession in low pH conditions. The altered competitive dynamics between calcareous species and fleshy seaweeds is probably the combined result of decreased growth rates of calcareous species, increased growth rates of fleshy seaweeds, and/or altered grazing rates. Phase shifts towards ecosystems dominated by fleshy seaweed are common in many marine ecosystems, and our results suggest that changes in the competitive balance between these groups represent a key leverage point through which the physiological responses of individual species to acidification could indirectly lead to profound ecosystem changes in an acidified ocean.

Catastrophic drought in East Asian monsoon region during Heinrich event 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Xin; Sun, Liguang; Chu, Yangxi; Xia, Zehui; Zhou, Xinying; Li, Xiangzhong; Chu, Zhuding; Liu, Xiangjun; Shao, Da; Wang, Yuhong

2016-06-01

Heinrich event 1 (H1) is an important millennial climate event during the last deglaciation. The substantial decreasing of monsoon strength in the East Asian monsoon region during the H1, as shown by stalagmite δ18O records, has been attributed to the southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), which is caused by the slowdown/collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, records from different Asian monsoon regions show various trends in precipitation changes during the H1, and these trends cannot be solely interpreted by the southward shift of the ITCZ. In the present study, we reconstructed time-series of East Asian monsoon precipitation between 25,000 and 10,000 a BP from floodplain sediments in the Huai River Basin. A white sediment layer, distinct from other layers in the profile, contains significantly low TOC, tree pollen and fern spore contents, and more positive δ13Corg, and it is deposited during the H1 event. The determined TOC, pollen and δ13Corg time-series, together with previously reported stalagmite δ18O, indicate a catastrophic (severe) drought in Jianghuai Region, one of the East Asian monsoon regions, during the H1. The La Niña condition in tropical Pacific likely also contributes to the catastrophic drought in Jianghuai Region and the precipitation variations in the Asian monsoon region during the H1.

USING FISHER INFORMATION TO DETECT GRADUAL AND RAPID ECOSYSTEM REGIME SHIFTS

EPA Science Inventory

As ecosystems experience perturbations of varying regularity and intensity, they may either remain within the state space neighborhood of the current regime, or "flip" into the neighborhood of a regime with different characteristics. Although the possibility of such regime shifts...

Katrina: boon or bust for freshwater fish communities?

Treesearch

Susan B. Adams

2005-01-01

Hurricane Katrina was the most damaging storm to hit the Mississippi Gulf Coast in recent history. Although catastrophic in human terms, was Katrina a disaster for freshwater ecosystems? Were the storm and its impacts on freshwater fish communities “natural”? The naturalness of the storm’s effects on freshwater communities varies depending on previous anthropogenic...

Restoring fire-adapted ecosystems: proceedings of the 2005 national silviculture workshop

Treesearch

Robert F. Powers

2007-01-01

Many federal forests are at risk to catastrophic wild fire owing to past management practices and policies. Mangers of these forests face the immense challenge of making their forests resilient to wild fire, and the problem is complicated by the specter of climate change that may affect wild fire frequency and intensity. Some of the Nation’s leading...

Variable impact of late-Quaternary megafaunal extinction in causing ecological state shifts in North and South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnosky, Anthony D.; Lindsey, Emily L.; Villavicencio, Natalia A.; Bostelmann, Enrique; Hadly, Elizabeth A.; Wanket, James; Marshall, Charles R.

2016-01-01

Loss of megafauna, an aspect of defaunation, can precipitate many ecological changes over short time scales. We examine whether megafauna loss can also explain features of lasting ecological state shifts that occurred as the Pleistocene gave way to the Holocene. We compare ecological impacts of late-Quaternary megafauna extinction in five American regions: southwestern Patagonia, the Pampas, northeastern United States, northwestern United States, and Beringia. We find that major ecological state shifts were consistent with expectations of defaunation in North American sites but not in South American ones. The differential responses highlight two factors necessary for defaunation to trigger lasting ecological state shifts discernable in the fossil record: (i) lost megafauna need to have been effective ecosystem engineers, like proboscideans; and (ii) historical contingencies must have provided the ecosystem with plant species likely to respond to megafaunal loss. These findings help in identifying modern ecosystems that are most at risk for disappearing should current pressures on the ecosystems' large animals continue and highlight the critical role of both individual species ecologies and ecosystem context in predicting the lasting impacts of defaunation currently underway.

A framework for the resilience of seagrass ecosystems.

PubMed

Unsworth, Richard K F; Collier, Catherine J; Waycott, Michelle; Mckenzie, Len J; Cullen-Unsworth, Leanne C

2015-11-15

Seagrass ecosystems represent a global marine resource that is declining across its range. To halt degradation and promote recovery over large scales, management requires a radical change in emphasis and application that seeks to enhance seagrass ecosystem resilience. In this review we examine how the resilience of seagrass ecosystems is becoming compromised by a range of local to global stressors, resulting in ecological regime shifts that undermine the long-term viability of these productive ecosystems. To examine regime shifts and the management actions that can influence this phenomenon we present a conceptual model of resilience in seagrass ecosystems. The model is founded on a series of features and modifiers that act as interacting influences upon seagrass ecosystem resilience. Improved understanding and appreciation of the factors and modifiers that govern resilience in seagrass ecosystems can be utilised to support much needed evidence based management of a vital natural resource. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Response of Coastal Fishes to the Gulf of Mexico Oil Disaster

PubMed Central

Fodrie, F. Joel; Heck, Kenneth L.

2011-01-01

The ecosystem-level impacts of the Deepwater Horizon disaster have been largely unpredictable due to the unique setting and magnitude of this spill. We used a five-year (2006–2010) data set within the oil-affected region to explore acute consequences for early-stage survival of fish species inhabiting seagrass nursery habitat. Although many of these species spawned during spring-summer, and produced larvae vulnerable to oil-polluted water, overall and species-by-species catch rates were high in 2010 after the spill (1,989±220 fishes km-towed−1 [μ ± 1SE]) relative to the previous four years (1,080±43 fishes km-towed−1). Also, several exploited species were characterized by notably higher juvenile catch rates during 2010 following large-scale fisheries closures in the northern Gulf, although overall statistical results for the effects of fishery closures on assemblage-wide CPUE data were ambiguous. We conclude that immediate, catastrophic losses of 2010 cohorts were largely avoided, and that no shifts in species composition occurred following the spill. The potential long-term impacts facing fishes as a result of chronic exposure and delayed, indirect effects now require attention. PMID:21754992

Trophic signatures of seabirds suggest shifts in oceanic ecosystems

PubMed Central

Gagne, Tyler O.; Hyrenbach, K. David; Hagemann, Molly E.; Van Houtan, Kyle S.

2018-01-01

Pelagic ecosystems are dynamic ocean regions whose immense natural capital is affected by climate change, pollution, and commercial fisheries. Trophic level–based indicators derived from fishery catch data may reveal the food web status of these systems, but the utility of these metrics has been debated because of targeting bias in fisheries catch. We analyze a unique, fishery-independent data set of North Pacific seabird tissues to inform ecosystem trends over 13 decades (1890s to 2010s). Trophic position declined broadly in five of eight species sampled, indicating a long-term shift from higher–trophic level to lower–trophic level prey. No species increased their trophic position. Given species prey preferences, Bayesian diet reconstructions suggest a shift from fishes to squids, a result consistent with both catch reports and ecosystem models. Machine learning models further reveal that trophic position trends have a complex set of drivers including climate, commercial fisheries, and ecomorphology. Our results show that multiple species of fish-consuming seabirds may track the complex changes occurring in marine ecosystems. PMID:29457134

Trophic signatures of seabirds suggest shifts in oceanic ecosystems.

PubMed

Gagne, Tyler O; Hyrenbach, K David; Hagemann, Molly E; Van Houtan, Kyle S

2018-02-01

Pelagic ecosystems are dynamic ocean regions whose immense natural capital is affected by climate change, pollution, and commercial fisheries. Trophic level-based indicators derived from fishery catch data may reveal the food web status of these systems, but the utility of these metrics has been debated because of targeting bias in fisheries catch. We analyze a unique, fishery-independent data set of North Pacific seabird tissues to inform ecosystem trends over 13 decades (1890s to 2010s). Trophic position declined broadly in five of eight species sampled, indicating a long-term shift from higher-trophic level to lower-trophic level prey. No species increased their trophic position. Given species prey preferences, Bayesian diet reconstructions suggest a shift from fishes to squids, a result consistent with both catch reports and ecosystem models. Machine learning models further reveal that trophic position trends have a complex set of drivers including climate, commercial fisheries, and ecomorphology. Our results show that multiple species of fish-consuming seabirds may track the complex changes occurring in marine ecosystems.

Identifying Indicators of State Change and Forecasting Future Vulnerability in Alaskan Boreal Ecosystems

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

ice have catastrophic effects on facilities, infrastructure, and military testing and training. Permafrost temperature , thickness, and geographic...treeline) and fire severity (~0 to ~100% SOL consumption ), they provide an excellent suite of sites to test and quantify the effects of fire severity...stages .........................59 Table 6.1. Variables included in explanatory matrix for black spruce dominance ............68 Table 6.2. Mixed effect

Identifying Indicators of State Change and Forecasting Future Vulnerability in Alaskan Boreal Ecosystems

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

catastrophic effects on facilities, infrastructure, and military testing and training. Permafrost temperature , thickness, and geographic continuity...and fire severity (~0 to ~100% SOL consumption ), they provide an excellent suite of sites to test and quantify the effects of fire severity on plant...59 Table 6.1. Variables included in explanatory matrix for black spruce dominance ............68 Table 6.2. Mixed effect model

Hurricane risk management and climate information gatekeeping in southeast Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Treuer, G.; Bolson, J.

2013-12-01

Tropical storms provide fresh water necessary for healthy economies and health ecosystems. Hurricanes, massive tropical storms, threaten catastrophic flooding and wind damage. Sea level rise exacerbates flooding risks from rain and storm surge for coastal communities. Climate change adaptation measures to manage this risk must be implemented locally, but actions at other levels of government and by neighboring communities impact the options available to local municipalities. When working on adaptation local decision makers must balance multiple types of risk: physical or scientifically described risks, legal risks, and political risks. Generating usable or actionable climate science is a goal of the academic climate community. To do this we need to expand our analysis to include types of risk that constrain the use of objective science. Integrating physical, legal, and political risks is difficult. Each requires specific expertise and uses unique language. An opportunity exists to study how local decision makers manage all three on a daily basis and how their risk management impacts climate resilience for communities and ecosystems. South Florida's particular vulnerabilities make it an excellent case study. Besides physical vulnerabilities (low elevation, intense coastal development, frequent hurricanes, compromised ecosystems) it also has unique legal and political challenges. Federal and state property rights protections create legal risks for government action that restricts land use to promote climate adaptation. Also, a lack of cases that deal with climate change creates uncertainty about the nature of these legal risks. Politically Florida is divided ideologically and geographically. The regions in the southeast which are most vulnerable are predominantly Hispanic and under-represented at the state level, where leadership on climate change is functionally nonexistent. It is conventional wisdom amongst water managers in Florida that little climate adaptation will not occur until a major hurricane hits the region, despite the cost effectiveness of preemptive interventions. It is assumed that after a hurricane the political risks will shift. New policies will be tried and new infrastructure will be built. Many municipalities and agencies are creating "shovel ready" plans in advance to take advantage of post-catastrophe funds. How do the design of these plans reflect perceptions of legal and political risk? Will they do a good job of reducing scientific risk by addressing long term physical threats? In this study we identify specific challenges to climate adaptation in Florida and explore how local and regional water management decision makers balance physical, legal, and political risks in their planning. A primary risk management tool is the strategic use of information. Through targeted interviews with stakeholders we identify key information gatekeepers and their strategies for reducing multiple types of risk.

Managing for resilience: an information theory-based ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Ecosystems are complex and multivariate; hence, methods to assess the dynamics of ecosystems should have the capacity to evaluate multiple indicators simultaneously. Most research on identifying leading indicators of regime shifts has focused on univariate methods and simple models which have limited utility when evaluating real ecosystems, particularly because drivers are often unknown. We discuss some common univariate and multivariate approaches for detecting critical transitions in ecosystems and demonstrate their capabilities via case studies. Synthesis and applications. We illustrate the utility of an information theory-based index for assessing ecosystem dynamics. Trends in this index also provide a sentinel of both abrupt and gradual transitions in ecosystems. In response to the need to identify leading indicators of regime shifts in ecosystems, our research compares traditional indicators and Fisher information, an information theory based method, by examining four case study systems. Results demonstrate the utility of methods and offers great promise for quantifying and managing for resilience.

Evaluating trophic cascades as drivers of regime shifts in different ocean ecosystems

PubMed Central

Pershing, Andrew J.; Mills, Katherine E.; Record, Nicholas R.; Stamieszkin, Karen; Wurtzell, Katharine V.; Byron, Carrie J.; Fitzpatrick, Dominic; Golet, Walter J.; Koob, Elise

2015-01-01

In ecosystems that are strongly structured by predation, reducing top predator abundance can alter several lower trophic levels—a process known as a trophic cascade. A persistent trophic cascade also fits the definition of a regime shift. Such ‘trophic cascade regime shifts' have been reported in a few pelagic marine systems—notably the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and eastern Scotian Shelf—raising the question of how common this phenomenon is in the marine environment. We provide a general methodology for distinguishing top-down and bottom-up effects and apply this methodology to time series from these three ecosystems. We found evidence for top-down forcing in the Black Sea due primarily to gelatinous zooplankton. Changes in the Baltic Sea are primarily bottom-up, strongly structured by salinity, but top-down forcing related to changes in cod abundance also shapes the ecosystem. Changes in the eastern Scotian Shelf that were originally attributed to declines in groundfish are better explained by changes in stratification. Our review suggests that trophic cascade regime shifts are rare in open ocean ecosystems and that their likelihood increases as the residence time of water in the system increases. Our work challenges the assumption that negative correlation between consecutive trophic levels implies top-down forcing.

Hydrological regulation drives regime shifts: evidence from paleolimnology and ecosystem modeling of a large shallow Chinese lake.

PubMed

Kong, Xiangzhen; He, Qishuang; Yang, Bin; He, Wei; Xu, Fuliu; Janssen, Annette B G; Kuiper, Jan J; van Gerven, Luuk P A; Qin, Ning; Jiang, Yujiao; Liu, Wenxiu; Yang, Chen; Bai, Zelin; Zhang, Min; Kong, Fanxiang; Janse, Jan H; Mooij, Wolf M

2017-02-01

Quantitative evidence of sudden shifts in ecological structure and function in large shallow lakes is rare, even though they provide essential benefits to society. Such 'regime shifts' can be driven by human activities which degrade ecological stability including water level control (WLC) and nutrient loading. Interactions between WLC and nutrient loading on the long-term dynamics of shallow lake ecosystems are, however, often overlooked and largely underestimated, which has hampered the effectiveness of lake management. Here, we focus on a large shallow lake (Lake Chaohu) located in one of the most densely populated areas in China, the lower Yangtze River floodplain, which has undergone both WLC and increasing nutrient loading over the last several decades. We applied a novel methodology that combines consistent evidence from both paleolimnological records and ecosystem modeling to overcome the hurdle of data insufficiency and to unravel the drivers and underlying mechanisms in ecosystem dynamics. We identified the occurrence of two regime shifts: one in 1963, characterized by the abrupt disappearance of submerged vegetation, and another around 1980, with strong algal blooms being observed thereafter. Using model scenarios, we further disentangled the roles of WLC and nutrient loading, showing that the 1963 shift was predominantly triggered by WLC, whereas the shift ca. 1980 was attributed to aggravated nutrient loading. Our analysis also shows interactions between these two stressors. Compared to the dynamics driven by nutrient loading alone, WLC reduced the critical P loading and resulted in earlier disappearance of submerged vegetation and emergence of algal blooms by approximately 26 and 10 years, respectively. Overall, our study reveals the significant role of hydrological regulation in driving shallow lake ecosystem dynamics, and it highlights the urgency of using multi-objective management criteria that includes ecological sustainability perspectives when implementing hydrological regulation for aquatic ecosystems around the globe. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Shifting Pacific storm tracks as stressors to ecosystems of western North America.

PubMed

Dannenberg, Matthew P; Wise, Erika K

2017-11-01

Much of the precipitation delivered to western North America arrives during the cool season via midlatitude Pacific storm tracks, which may experience future shifts in response to climate change. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the hydroclimate and ecosystems of western North America to the latitudinal position of cool-season Pacific storm tracks. We calculated correlations between storm track variability and three hydroclimatic variables: gridded cool-season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, April snow water equivalent, and water year streamflow from a network of USGS stream gauges. To assess how historical storm track variability affected ecosystem processes, we derived forest growth estimates from a large network of tree-ring widths and land surface phenology and wildfire estimates from remote sensing. From 1980 to 2014, cool-season storm tracks entered western North America between approximately 41°N and 53°N. Cool-season moisture supply and snowpack responded strongly to storm track position, with positive correlations to storm track latitude in eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada but negative correlations in the northwestern U.S. Ecosystems of the western United States were greener and more productive following winters with south-shifted storm tracks, while Canadian ecosystems were greener in years when the cool-season storm track was shifted to the north. On average, larger areas of the northwestern United States were burned by moderate to high severity wildfires when storm tracks were displaced north, and the average burn area per fire also tended to be higher in years with north-shifted storm tracks. These results suggest that projected shifts of Pacific storm tracks over the 21st century would likely alter hydroclimatic and ecological regimes in western North America, particularly in the northwestern United States, where moisture supply and ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to the position of cool-season storm tracks. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Economics, socio-ecological resilience and ecosystem services.

PubMed

Farley, Joshua; Voinov, Alexey

2016-12-01

The economic process transforms raw materials and energy into economic products and waste. On a finite planet, continued economic growth threatens to surpass critical socio-ecological thresholds and undermine ecosystem services upon which humans and all other species depend. For most systems, whether such thresholds exist, where they lie and whether they are reversible cannot be known with certainty until they are crossed. We argue that our central economic challenge is to maintain the resilience of the current socio-ecological regime. We must reduce net impacts of economic activity to avoid critical ecological thresholds while ensuring economic necessities. Conventional economists pursue continuous growth as the central goal of economic activity, and assume that the price mechanism and technological breakthroughs ensure system resilience. Unfortunately, the price mechanism fails to address ecological thresholds because it ignores unowned ecosystem services, and fails to address economic thresholds because it ignores the needs of the poorest individuals, who live on the edge of them. Panarchy theory suggests that systems go through a cycle of growth, conservation, release and renewal. Managing a subsystem too long for growth or conservation-which many consider to be the goal of sustainability-actually threatens to collapse the higher-level system upon which that subsystem depends. Black Swan theory suggests we should seek to reduce the risk of catastrophic thresholds and promote the likelihood of technological breakthroughs. Economic degrowth, or planned release, is required to avoid catastrophic collapse. At the same time, publicly funded, open source information can help stimulate the technological breakthroughs economists count on to ensure resilience. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

What can ecosystems learn? Expanding evolutionary ecology with learning theory.

PubMed

Power, Daniel A; Watson, Richard A; Szathmáry, Eörs; Mills, Rob; Powers, Simon T; Doncaster, C Patrick; Czapp, Błażej

2015-12-08

The structure and organisation of ecological interactions within an ecosystem is modified by the evolution and coevolution of the individual species it contains. Understanding how historical conditions have shaped this architecture is vital for understanding system responses to change at scales from the microbial upwards. However, in the absence of a group selection process, the collective behaviours and ecosystem functions exhibited by the whole community cannot be organised or adapted in a Darwinian sense. A long-standing open question thus persists: Are there alternative organising principles that enable us to understand and predict how the coevolution of the component species creates and maintains complex collective behaviours exhibited by the ecosystem as a whole? Here we answer this question by incorporating principles from connectionist learning, a previously unrelated discipline already using well-developed theories on how emergent behaviours arise in simple networks. Specifically, we show conditions where natural selection on ecological interactions is functionally equivalent to a simple type of connectionist learning, 'unsupervised learning', well-known in neural-network models of cognitive systems to produce many non-trivial collective behaviours. Accordingly, we find that a community can self-organise in a well-defined and non-trivial sense without selection at the community level; its organisation can be conditioned by past experience in the same sense as connectionist learning models habituate to stimuli. This conditioning drives the community to form a distributed ecological memory of multiple past states, causing the community to: a) converge to these states from any random initial composition; b) accurately restore historical compositions from small fragments; c) recover a state composition following disturbance; and d) to correctly classify ambiguous initial compositions according to their similarity to learned compositions. We examine how the formation of alternative stable states alters the community's response to changing environmental forcing, and we identify conditions under which the ecosystem exhibits hysteresis with potential for catastrophic regime shifts. This work highlights the potential of connectionist theory to expand our understanding of evo-eco dynamics and collective ecological behaviours. Within this framework we find that, despite not being a Darwinian unit, ecological communities can behave like connectionist learning systems, creating internal conditions that habituate to past environmental conditions and actively recalling those conditions.

Science You Can Use Bulletin: From watersheds to the web: Online tools for modeling forest soil erosion

Treesearch

Sue Miller; Bill Elliot; Pete Robichaud; Randy Foltz; Dennis Flanagan; Erin Brooks

2014-01-01

Forest erosion can lead to topsoil loss, and also to damaging deposits of sediment in aquatic ecosystems. For this reason, forest managers must be able to estimate the erosion potential of both planned management activities and catastrophic events, in order to decide where to use limited funds to focus erosion control efforts. To meet this need, scientists from RMRS (...

The effect of landform and plant size on mortallity and recovery of longleaf pine during a 100-year loog1

Treesearch

Brain J. Palik; William K. Michener; Robert J. Mitchell; Joseph W. Jones

1999-01-01

Unlike annual floods, large floods affect plant species outside of bottomland ecosystems. We know little about the effects of catastrophic floods on upland plants because of the rarity of this type of disturbance. Here we report on mortality and vegetative recovery of upland longleaf pines (Pinus palustris) after a large flood. The flood top-killed most seedlings...

Using the NASA NEESPI Portal Data to Study Land, Climate, and Socio-Economic Changes in Northern Eurasia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leptoukh, Gregory; Shen, Suhung; Csiszar, Ivan; Romanov, Peter; Loboda, Tatiana; Gerasimov, Irina

2008-01-01

A large number of fires detected in July of 2003 - a nearly 200-time increase in fire detections compared to other years during 2001-2006. despite the summer monsoon suppression of large fire occurrence. Traditional vegetation indices (NDVI and EVI) included in operational fire danger assessment provide little information on the fuel state in this ecosystem pre- or post-fire. No considerable differences in surface temperature and soil moisture in July were observed between the catastrophic year of 2003 and the two subsequent years of low summer fire occurrence of 2004 and 2005. However, the temporal analysis indicates that dry spring conditions in 2003 (detected through low soil moisture measurements in April and May) may have led to a stressed vegetative state and created conditions conducive to catastrophic fire occurrence.

Initial shifts in nitrogen impact on ecosystem carbon fluxes in an alpine meadow: patterns and causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Bing; Sun, Jian; Zhou, Qingping; Zong, Ning; Li, Linghao; Niu, Shuli

2017-09-01

Increases in nitrogen (N) deposition can greatly stimulate ecosystem net carbon (C) sequestration through positive N-induced effects on plant productivity. However, how net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and its components respond to different N addition rates remains unclear. Using an N addition gradient experiment (six levels: 0, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 gN m-2 yr-1) in an alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, we explored the responses of different ecosystem C fluxes to an N addition gradient and revealed mechanisms underlying the dynamic responses. Results showed that NEE, ecosystem respiration (ER), and gross ecosystem production (GEP) all increased linearly with N addition rates in the first year of treatment but shifted to N saturation responses in the second year with the highest NEE (-7.77 ± 0.48 µmol m-2 s-1) occurring under an N addition rate of 8 gN m-2 yr-1. The saturation responses of NEE and GEP were caused by N-induced accumulation of standing litter, which limited light availability for plant growth under high N addition. The saturation response of ER was mainly due to an N-induced saturation response of aboveground plant respiration and decreasing soil microbial respiration along the N addition gradient, while decreases in soil microbial respiration under high N addition were caused by N-induced reductions in soil pH. We also found that various components of ER, including aboveground plant respiration, soil respiration, root respiration, and microbial respiration, responded differentially to the N addition gradient. These results reveal temporal dynamics of N impacts and the rapid shift in ecosystem C fluxes from N limitation to N saturation. Our findings bring evidence of short-term initial shifts in responses of ecosystem C fluxes to increases in N deposition, which should be considered when predicting long-term changes in ecosystem net C sequestration.

Applying ecosystem management to urban forestry

Treesearch

Wayne C. Zipperer

2007-01-01

During the 1990s, the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service shifted from commodity production management to ecosystem-based management (Overbay, 1992). Although definitions of ecosystem-based management vary by objectives, the principle had four primary elements: (1) maintaining viable populations of native species, (2) representing native ecosystems...

Nonlocal grazing in patterned ecosystems.

PubMed

Siero, E

2018-01-07

Many ecosystems exhibit gapped, labyrinthine, striped or spotted patterns. Important examples are vegetation patterns in drylands: these patterns are viewed as precursors of a catastrophic transition to a degraded state. A possible source of degradation is overgrazing, but many current spatially extended models include grazing in a local linear way. In this article nonlocal grazing responses are derived, taking into account (1) how many consumers there are (demographic response) (2) where they are (aggregative response) and (3) how much they forage (functional response). Different assumptions lead to different grazing responses, the type of grazing has a large influence on how ecosystems adapt to changing environmental conditions. In dryland simulations the different types of grazing are shown to alter the desertification process driven by decreasing rainfall. A sufficiently strong aggregative response leads to the suppression of vegetation patterns, nuancing their role as generic early warning signals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs.

PubMed

Graham, Nicholas A J; Jennings, Simon; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mouillot, David; Wilson, Shaun K

2015-02-05

Climate-induced coral bleaching is among the greatest current threats to coral reefs, causing widespread loss of live coral cover. Conditions under which reefs bounce back from bleaching events or shift from coral to algal dominance are unknown, making it difficult to predict and plan for differing reef responses under climate change. Here we document and predict long-term reef responses to a major climate-induced coral bleaching event that caused unprecedented region-wide mortality of Indo-Pacific corals. Following loss of >90% live coral cover, 12 of 21 reefs recovered towards pre-disturbance live coral states, while nine reefs underwent regime shifts to fleshy macroalgae. Functional diversity of associated reef fish communities shifted substantially following bleaching, returning towards pre-disturbance structure on recovering reefs, while becoming progressively altered on regime shifting reefs. We identified threshold values for a range of factors that accurately predicted ecosystem response to the bleaching event. Recovery was favoured when reefs were structurally complex and in deeper water, when density of juvenile corals and herbivorous fishes was relatively high and when nutrient loads were low. Whether reefs were inside no-take marine reserves had no bearing on ecosystem trajectory. Although conditions governing regime shift or recovery dynamics were diverse, pre-disturbance quantification of simple factors such as structural complexity and water depth accurately predicted ecosystem trajectories. These findings foreshadow the likely divergent but predictable outcomes for reef ecosystems in response to climate change, thus guiding improved management and adaptation.

Trophic amplification of climate warming

PubMed Central

Kirby, Richard R.; Beaugrand, Gregory

2009-01-01

Ecosystems can alternate suddenly between contrasting persistent states due to internal processes or external drivers. It is important to understand the mechanisms by which these shifts occur, especially in exploited ecosystems. There have been several abrupt marine ecosystem shifts attributed either to fishing, recent climate change or a combination of these two drivers. We show that temperature has been an important driver of the trophodynamics of the North Sea, a heavily fished marine ecosystem, for nearly 50 years and that a recent pronounced change in temperature established a new ecosystem dynamic regime through a series of internal mechanisms. Using an end-to-end ecosystem approach that included primary producers, primary, secondary and tertiary consumers, and detritivores, we found that temperature modified the relationships among species through nonlinearities in the ecosystem involving ecological thresholds and trophic amplifications. Trophic amplification provides an alternative mechanism to positive feedback to drive an ecosystem towards a new dynamic regime, which in this case favours jellyfish in the plankton and decapods and detritivores in the benthos. Although overfishing is often held responsible for marine ecosystem degeneration, temperature can clearly bring about similar effects. Our results are relevant to ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM), seen as the way forward to manage exploited marine ecosystems. PMID:19740882

Vegetation shift from deciduous to evergreen dwarf shrubs in response to selective herbivory offsets carbon losses: evidence from 19 years of warming and simulated herbivory in the subarctic tundra.

PubMed

Ylänne, Henni; Stark, Sari; Tolvanen, Anne

2015-10-01

Selective herbivory of palatable plant species provides a competitive advantage for unpalatable plant species, which often have slow growth rates and produce slowly decomposable litter. We hypothesized that through a shift in the vegetation community from palatable, deciduous dwarf shrubs to unpalatable, evergreen dwarf shrubs, selective herbivory may counteract the increased shrub abundance that is otherwise found in tundra ecosystems, in turn interacting with the responses of ecosystem carbon (C) stocks and CO2 balance to climatic warming. We tested this hypothesis in a 19-year field experiment with factorial treatments of warming and simulated herbivory on the dominant deciduous dwarf shrub Vaccinium myrtillus. Warming was associated with a significantly increased vegetation abundance, with the strongest effect on deciduous dwarf shrubs, resulting in greater rates of both gross ecosystem production (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) as well as increased C stocks. Simulated herbivory increased the abundance of evergreen dwarf shrubs, most importantly Empetrum nigrum ssp. hermaphroditum, which led to a recent shift in the dominant vegetation from deciduous to evergreen dwarf shrubs. Simulated herbivory caused no effect on GEP and ER or the total ecosystem C stocks, indicating that the vegetation shift counteracted the herbivore-induced C loss from the system. A larger proportion of the total ecosystem C stock was found aboveground, rather than belowground, in plots treated with simulated herbivory. We conclude that by providing a competitive advantage to unpalatable plant species with slow growth rates and long life spans, selective herbivory may promote aboveground C stocks in a warming tundra ecosystem and, through this mechanism, counteract C losses that result from plant biomass consumption. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Divergence of species responses to climate change

PubMed Central

Fei, Songlin; Desprez, Johanna M.; Potter, Kevin M.; Jo, Insu; Knott, Jonathan A.; Oswalt, Christopher M.

2017-01-01

Climate change can have profound impacts on biodiversity and the sustainability of many ecosystems. Various studies have investigated the impacts of climate change, but large-scale, trait-specific impacts are less understood. We analyze abundance data over time for 86 tree species/groups across the eastern United States spanning the last three decades. We show that more tree species have experienced a westward shift (73%) than a poleward shift (62%) in their abundance, a trend that is stronger for saplings than adult trees. The observed shifts are primarily due to the changes of subpopulation abundances in the leading edges and are significantly associated with changes in moisture availability and successional processes. These spatial shifts are associated with species that have similar traits (drought tolerance, wood density, and seed weight) and evolutionary histories (most angiosperms shifted westward and most gymnosperms shifted poleward). Our results indicate that changes in moisture availability have stronger near-term impacts on vegetation dynamics than changes in temperature. The divergent responses to climate change by trait- and phylogenetic-specific groups could lead to changes in composition of forest ecosystems, putting the resilience and sustainability of various forest ecosystems in question. PMID:28560343

Retrospective Montioring of Ecosystem Changes Using Published Data, Lessons Learned from Egypt's Nile River Delta

EPA Science Inventory

Monitoring programs for riverine and wetland ecosystems often do not begin until some substantial shift in ecosystem structure or loss of ecosystem service has taken place. Sometimes a lack of resources or interest may impede monitoring efforts. In the case of the large brackis...

Variable impact of late-Quaternary megafaunal extinction in causing ecological state shifts in North and South America

PubMed Central

Barnosky, Anthony D.; Lindsey, Emily L.; Villavicencio, Natalia A.; Bostelmann, Enrique; Hadly, Elizabeth A.; Wanket, James; Marshall, Charles R.

2016-01-01

Loss of megafauna, an aspect of defaunation, can precipitate many ecological changes over short time scales. We examine whether megafauna loss can also explain features of lasting ecological state shifts that occurred as the Pleistocene gave way to the Holocene. We compare ecological impacts of late-Quaternary megafauna extinction in five American regions: southwestern Patagonia, the Pampas, northeastern United States, northwestern United States, and Beringia. We find that major ecological state shifts were consistent with expectations of defaunation in North American sites but not in South American ones. The differential responses highlight two factors necessary for defaunation to trigger lasting ecological state shifts discernable in the fossil record: (i) lost megafauna need to have been effective ecosystem engineers, like proboscideans; and (ii) historical contingencies must have provided the ecosystem with plant species likely to respond to megafaunal loss. These findings help in identifying modern ecosystems that are most at risk for disappearing should current pressures on the ecosystems’ large animals continue and highlight the critical role of both individual species ecologies and ecosystem context in predicting the lasting impacts of defaunation currently underway. PMID:26504219

Alternative stable states and phase shifts in coral reefs under anthropogenic stress.

PubMed

Fung, Tak; Seymour, Robert M; Johnson, Craig R

2011-04-01

Ecosystems with alternative stable states (ASS) may shift discontinuously from one stable state to another as environmental parameters cross a threshold. Reversal can then be difficult due to hysteresis effects. This contrasts with continuous state changes in response to changing environmental parameters, which are less difficult to reverse. Worldwide degradation of coral reefs, involving "phase shifts" from coral to algal dominance, highlights the pressing need to determine the likelihood of discontinuous phase shifts in coral reefs, in contrast to continuous shifts with no ASS. However, there is little evidence either for or against the existence of ASS for coral reefs. We use dynamic models to investigate the likelihood of continuous and discontinuous phase shifts in coral reefs subject to sustained environmental perturbation by fishing, nutrification, and sedimentation. Our modeling results suggest that coral reefs with or without anthropogenic stress can exhibit ASS, such that discontinuous phase shifts can occur. We also find evidence to support the view that high macroalgal growth rates and low grazing rates on macroalgae favor ASS in coral reefs. Further, our results suggest that the three stressors studied, either alone or in combination, can increase the likelihood of both continuous and discontinuous phase shifts by altering the competitive balance between corals and algae. However, in contrast to continuous phase shifts, we find that discontinuous shifts occur only in model coral reefs with parameter values near the extremes of their empirically determined ranges. This suggests that continuous shifts are more likely than discontinuous shifts in coral reefs. Our results also suggest that, for ecosystems in general, tackling multiple human stressors simultaneously maximizes resilience to phase shifts, ASS, and hysteresis, leading to improvements in ecosystem health and functioning.

A Single Spark Can Start a Prairie Fire: Teaching toward Transformation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ayers, William

2006-01-01

The old saying, that a single spark can start a prairie fire, appears in many forms and in different cultures carrying a range of shifting implications and meanings. In this article, William Ayers writes that in some instances, prairie fires are not always catastrophic. They are naturally occurring events necessary and renewing; removing the thick…

Detecting Subtle Shifts in Ecosystem Functioning in a Dynamic Estuarine Environment

PubMed Central

Pratt, Daniel R.; Lohrer, Andrew M.; Thrush, Simon F.; Hewitt, Judi E.; Townsend, Michael; Cartner, Katie; Pilditch, Conrad A.; Harris, Rachel J.; van Colen, Carl; Rodil, Iván F.

2015-01-01

Identifying the effects of stressors before they impact ecosystem functioning can be challenging in dynamic, heterogeneous ‘real-world’ ecosystems. In aquatic systems, for example, reductions in water clarity can limit the light available for photosynthesis, with knock-on consequences for secondary consumers, though in naturally turbid wave-swept estuaries, detecting the effects of elevated turbidity can be difficult. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of shading on ecosystem functions mediated by sandflat primary producers (microphytobenthos) and deep-dwelling surface-feeding macrofauna (Macomona liliana; Bivalvia, Veneroida, Tellinidae). Shade cloths (which reduced incident light intensity by ~80%) were deployed on an exposed, intertidal sandflat to experimentally stress the microphytobenthic community associated with the sediment surface. After 13 weeks, sediment properties, macrofauna and fluxes of oxygen and inorganic nutrients across the sediment-water interface were measured. A multivariate metric of ecosystem function (MF) was generated by combining flux-based response variables, and distance-based linear models were used to determine shifts in the drivers of ecosystem function between non-shaded and shaded plots. No significant differences in MF or in the constituent ecosystem function variables were detected between the shaded and non-shaded plots. However, shading reduced the total explained variation in MF (from 64% in non-shaded plots to 15% in shaded plots) and affected the relative influence of M. liliana and other explanatory variables on MF. This suggests that although shade stress may shift the drivers of ecosystem functioning (consistent with earlier investigations of shading effects on sandflat interaction networks), ecosystem functions appear to have a degree of resilience to those changes. PMID:26214854

Empirical analysis of vegetation dynamics and the possibility of a catastrophic desertification transition

PubMed Central

Kent, Rafi; Michael, Yaron; Shnerb, Nadav M.

2017-01-01

The process of desertification in the semi-arid climatic zone is considered by many as a catastrophic regime shift, since the positive feedback of vegetation density on growth rates yields a system that admits alternative steady states. Some support to this idea comes from the analysis of static patterns, where peaks of the vegetation density histogram were associated with these alternative states. Here we present a large-scale empirical study of vegetation dynamics, aimed at identifying and quantifying directly the effects of positive feedback. To do that, we have analyzed vegetation density across 2.5 × 106 km2 of the African Sahel region, with spatial resolution of 30 × 30 meters, using three consecutive snapshots. The results are mixed. The local vegetation density (measured at a single pixel) moves towards the average of the corresponding rainfall line, indicating a purely negative feedback. On the other hand, the chance of spatial clusters (of many “green” pixels) to expand in the next census is growing with their size, suggesting some positive feedback. We show that these apparently contradicting results emerge naturally in a model with positive feedback and strong demographic stochasticity, a model that allows for a catastrophic shift only in a certain range of parameters. Static patterns, like the double peak in the histogram of vegetation density, are shown to vary between censuses, with no apparent correlation with the actual dynamical features. Our work emphasizes the importance of dynamic response patterns as indicators of the state of the system, while the usefulness of static modality features appears to be quite limited. PMID:29261678

Empirical analysis of vegetation dynamics and the possibility of a catastrophic desertification transition.

PubMed

Weissmann, Haim; Kent, Rafi; Michael, Yaron; Shnerb, Nadav M

2017-01-01

The process of desertification in the semi-arid climatic zone is considered by many as a catastrophic regime shift, since the positive feedback of vegetation density on growth rates yields a system that admits alternative steady states. Some support to this idea comes from the analysis of static patterns, where peaks of the vegetation density histogram were associated with these alternative states. Here we present a large-scale empirical study of vegetation dynamics, aimed at identifying and quantifying directly the effects of positive feedback. To do that, we have analyzed vegetation density across 2.5 × 106 km2 of the African Sahel region, with spatial resolution of 30 × 30 meters, using three consecutive snapshots. The results are mixed. The local vegetation density (measured at a single pixel) moves towards the average of the corresponding rainfall line, indicating a purely negative feedback. On the other hand, the chance of spatial clusters (of many "green" pixels) to expand in the next census is growing with their size, suggesting some positive feedback. We show that these apparently contradicting results emerge naturally in a model with positive feedback and strong demographic stochasticity, a model that allows for a catastrophic shift only in a certain range of parameters. Static patterns, like the double peak in the histogram of vegetation density, are shown to vary between censuses, with no apparent correlation with the actual dynamical features. Our work emphasizes the importance of dynamic response patterns as indicators of the state of the system, while the usefulness of static modality features appears to be quite limited.

Convergent ecosystem responses to 23-year ambient and manipulated warming link advancing snowmelt and shrub encroachment to transient and long-term climate-soil carbon feedback.

PubMed

Harte, John; Saleska, Scott R; Levy, Charlotte

2015-06-01

Ecosystem responses to climate change can exert positive or negative feedbacks on climate, mediated in part by slow-moving factors such as shifts in vegetation community composition. Long-term experimental manipulations can be used to examine such ecosystem responses, but they also present another opportunity: inferring the extent to which contemporary climate change is responsible for slow changes in ecosystems under ambient conditions. Here, using 23 years of data, we document a shift from nonwoody to woody vegetation and a loss of soil carbon in ambient plots and show that these changes track previously shown similar but faster changes under experimental warming. This allows us to infer that climate change is the cause of the observed shifts in ambient vegetation and soil carbon and that the vegetation responses mediate the observed changes in soil carbon. Our findings demonstrate the realism of an experimental manipulation, allow attribution of a climate cause to observed ambient ecosystem changes, and demonstrate how a combination of long-term study of ambient and experimental responses to warming can identify mechanistic drivers needed for realistic predictions of the conditions under which ecosystems are likely to become carbon sources or sinks over varying timescales. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ontogenetic functional diversity: size structure of a keystone predator drives functioning of a complex ecosystem.

PubMed

Rudolf, Volker H W; Rasmussen, Nick L

2013-05-01

A central challenge in community ecology is to understand the connection between biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems. While traditional approaches have largely focused on species-level diversity, increasing evidence indicates that there exists substantial ecological diversity among individuals within species. By far, the largest source of this intraspecific diversity stems from variation among individuals in ontogenetic stage and size. Although such ontogenetic shifts are ubiquitous in natural communities, whether and how they scale up to influence the structure and functioning of complex ecosystems is largely unknown. Here we take an experimental approach to examine the consequences of ontogenetic niche shifts for the structure of communities and ecosystem processes. In particular we experimentally manipulated the stage structure in a keystone predator, larvae of the dragonfly Anax junius, in complex experimental pond communities to test whether changes in the population stage or size structure of a keystone species scale up to alter community structure and ecosystem processes, and how functional differences scale with relative differences in size among stages. We found that the functional role of A. junius was stage-specific. Altering what stages were present in a pond led to concurrent changes in community structure, primary producer biomass (periphyton and phytoplankton), and ultimately altered ecosystem processes (respiration and net primary productivity), indicating a strong, but stage-specific, trophic cascade. Interestingly, the stage-specific effects did not simply scale with size or biomass of the predator, but instead indicated clear ontogenetic niche shifts in ecological interactions. Thus, functional differences among stages within a keystone species scaled up to alter the functioning of entire ecosystems. Therefore, our results indicate that the classical approach of assuming an average functional role of a species can be misleading because functional roles are dynamic and will change with shifts in the stage structure of the species. In general this emphasizes the importance of accounting for functional diversity below the species level to predict how natural and anthropogenic changes alter the functioning of natural ecosystems.

Abrupt transitions of the top-down controlled Black Sea pelagic ecosystem during 1960 2000: Evidence for regime-shifts under strong fishery exploitation and nutrient enrichment modulated by climate-induced variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oguz, Temel; Gilbert, Denis

2007-02-01

Functioning of the Black Sea ecosystem has profoundly changed since the early 1970s under cumulative effects of excessive nutrient enrichment, strong cooling/warming, over-exploitation of pelagic fish stocks, and population outbreak of gelatinous carnivores. Applying a set of criteria to the long-term (1960-2000) ecological time-series data, the present study demonstrates that the Black Sea ecosystem was reorganised during this transition phase in different forms of top-down controlled food web structure through successive regime-shifts of distinct ecological properties. The Secchi disc depth, oxic-anoxic interface zone, dissolved oxygen and hydrogen sulphide concentrations also exhibit abrupt transition between their alternate regimes, and indicate tight coupling between the lower trophic food web structure and the biogeochemical pump in terms of regime-shift events. The first shift, in 1973-1974, marks a switch from large predatory fish to small planktivore fish-controlled system, which persisted until 1989 in the form of increasing small pelagic and phytoplankton biomass and decreasing zooplankton biomass. The increase in phytoplankton biomass is further supported by a bottom-up contribution due to the cumulative response to high anthropogenic nutrient load and the concurrent shift of the physical system to the "cold climate regime" following its ˜20-year persistence in the "warm climate regime". The end of the 1980s signifies the depletion of small planktivores and the transition to a gelatinous carnivore-controlled system. By the end of the 1990s, small planktivore populations take over control of the system again. Concomitantly, their top-down pressure when combined with diminishing anthropogenic nutrient load and more limited nutrient supply into the surface waters due to stabilizing effects of relatively warm winter conditions switched the "high production" regime of phytoplankton to its background "low production" regime. The Black Sea regime-shifts appear to be sporadic events forced by strong transient decadal perturbations, and therefore differ from the multi-decadal scale cyclical events observed in pelagic ocean ecosystems under low-frequency climatic forcing. The Black Sea observations illustrate that eutrophication and extreme fishery exploitation can indeed induce hysteresis in large marine ecosystems, when they can exert sufficiently strong forcing onto the system. They further illustrate the link between the disruption of the top predators, proliferation of new predator stocks, and regime-shift events. Examples of these features have been reported for some aquatic ecosystems, but are extremely limited for large marine ecosystems.

Evaluating the effects of ecosystem management: a case study in a Missouri Ozark forest

Treesearch

Wendy K. Gram; Victoria L. Sork; Robert J. Marquis; Rochelle B. Renken; Richard L. Clawson; et. al.

2002-01-01

Many federal and state management agencies have shifted from commodity-based management systems to multiple resource-based management systems that emphasize sustainable ecosystem management. Long-term sustainability of ecosystem functions and processes is at the core of ecosystem management, but a blueprint for assessing sustainability under different management...

[The present-day issues of ecology, and possible solutions].

PubMed

Galichiĭ, V A; Stepanova, S I

2005-01-01

Ecology is considered an interdisciplinary bank of knowledge about the relations of humans with nature and anthropogenic environment. The central issue of ecology is prevention of the global catastrophe in consequence of anthropogenic factors. The dire threat of the ecological catastrophe comes from breaching the principle of co-evolution of mankind and nature due to the unilateral prevalence of human interests during formation of the civilization. Issues revealed by the analysis of the present-day knowledge of ecology can be resolved by creating an ecology-oriented ethic system (moral imperative or ecology-focused morals) an ecological imperative (internationally endorsed bans), and taking actions toward the recovery of ruined and preservation of survived eco-systems. Of special concern is analysis of the doctrine of noosphere developed by V.I. Vernadsky. The authors also dwell upon eco-monitoring and prediction with account of the rhythm of animate nature and abiocoen.

Hydrological resiliency in the Western Boreal Plains: classification of hydrological responses using wavelet analysis to assess landscape resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Probert, Samantha; Kettridge, Nicholas; Devito, Kevin; Hannah, David; Parkin, Geoff

2017-04-01

The Boreal represents a system of substantial resilience to climate change, with minimal ecological change over the past 6000 years. However, unprecedented climatic warming, coupled with catchment disturbances could exceed thresholds of hydrological function in the Western Boreal Plains. Knowledge of ecohydrological and climatic feedbacks that shape the resilience of boreal forests has advanced significantly in recent years, but this knowledge is yet to be applied and understood at landscape scales. Hydrological modelling at the landscape scale is challenging in the WBP due to diverse, non-topographically driven hydrology across the mosaic of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. This study functionally divides the geologic and ecological components of the landscape into Hydrologic Response Areas (HRAs) and wetland, forestland, interface and pond Hydrologic Units (HUs) to accurately characterise water storage and infer transmission at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Wavelet analysis is applied to pond and groundwater levels to describe the patterns of water storage in response to climate signals; to isolate dominant controls on hydrological responses and to assess the relative importance of physical controls between wet and dry climates. This identifies which components of the landscape exhibit greater magnitude and frequency of variability to wetting and drying trends, further to testing the hierarchical framework for hydrological storage controls of: climate, bedrock geology, surficial geology, soil, vegetation, and topography. Classifying HRA and HU hydrological function is essential to understand and predict water storage and redistribution through drought cycles and wet periods. This work recognises which landscape components are most sensitive under climate change and disturbance and also creates scope for hydrological resiliency research in Boreal systems by recognising critical landscape components and their role in landscape collapse or catastrophic shift in ecosystem function under future climatic scenarios.

Ecological forecasting in the presence of abrupt regime shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dippner, Joachim W.; Kröncke, Ingrid

2015-10-01

Regime shifts may cause an intrinsic decrease in the potential predictability of marine ecosystems. In such cases, forecasts of biological variables fail. To improve prediction of long-term variability in environmental variables, we constructed a multivariate climate index and applied it to forecast ecological time series. The concept is demonstrated herein using climate and macrozoobenthos data from the southern North Sea. Special emphasis is given to the influence of selection of length of fitting period to the quality of forecast skill especially in the presence of regime shifts. Our results indicate that the performance of multivariate predictors in biological forecasts is much better than that of single large-scale climate indices, especially in the presence of regime shifts. The approach used to develop the index is generally applicable to all geographical regions in the world and to all areas of marine biology, from the species level up to biodiversity. Such forecasts are of vital interest for practical aspects of the sustainable management of marine ecosystems and the conservation of ecosystem goods and services.

Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China

PubMed Central

Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

2016-01-01

Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21st century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change. PMID:26867481

Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China.

PubMed

Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

2016-02-12

Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21(st) century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change.

Long-Term Changes in the Distributions of Larval and Adult Fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem.

PubMed

Walsh, Harvey J; Richardson, David E; Marancik, Katrin E; Hare, Jonathan A

2015-01-01

Many studies have documented long-term changes in adult marine fish distributions and linked these changes to climate change and multi-decadal climate variability. Most marine fish, however, have complex life histories with morphologically distinct stages, which use different habitats. Shifts in distribution of one stage may affect the connectivity between life stages and thereby impact population processes including spawning and recruitment. Specifically, many marine fish species have a planktonic larval stage, which lasts from weeks to months. We compared the spatial distribution and seasonal occurrence of larval fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem to test whether spatial and temporal distributions changed between two decades. Two large-scale ichthyoplankton programs sampled using similar methods and spatial domain each decade. Adult distributions from a long-term bottom trawl survey over the same time period and spatial area were also analyzed using the same analytical framework to compare changes in larval and adult distributions between the two decades. Changes in spatial distribution of larvae occurred for 43% of taxa, with shifts predominately northward (i.e., along-shelf). Timing of larval occurrence shifted for 49% of the larval taxa, with shifts evenly split between occurring earlier and later in the season. Where both larvae and adults of the same species were analyzed, 48% exhibited different shifts between larval and adult stages. Overall, these results demonstrate that larval fish distributions are changing in the ecosystem. The spatial changes are largely consistent with expectations from a changing climate. The temporal changes are more complex, indicating we need a better understanding of reproductive timing of fishes in the ecosystem. These changes may impact population productivity through changes in life history connectivity and recruitment, and add to the accumulating evidence for changes in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem with potential to impact fisheries and other ecosystem services.

Long-Term Changes in the Distributions of Larval and Adult Fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Many studies have documented long-term changes in adult marine fish distributions and linked these changes to climate change and multi-decadal climate variability. Most marine fish, however, have complex life histories with morphologically distinct stages, which use different habitats. Shifts in distribution of one stage may affect the connectivity between life stages and thereby impact population processes including spawning and recruitment. Specifically, many marine fish species have a planktonic larval stage, which lasts from weeks to months. We compared the spatial distribution and seasonal occurrence of larval fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem to test whether spatial and temporal distributions changed between two decades. Two large-scale ichthyoplankton programs sampled using similar methods and spatial domain each decade. Adult distributions from a long-term bottom trawl survey over the same time period and spatial area were also analyzed using the same analytical framework to compare changes in larval and adult distributions between the two decades. Changes in spatial distribution of larvae occurred for 43% of taxa, with shifts predominately northward (i.e., along-shelf). Timing of larval occurrence shifted for 49% of the larval taxa, with shifts evenly split between occurring earlier and later in the season. Where both larvae and adults of the same species were analyzed, 48% exhibited different shifts between larval and adult stages. Overall, these results demonstrate that larval fish distributions are changing in the ecosystem. The spatial changes are largely consistent with expectations from a changing climate. The temporal changes are more complex, indicating we need a better understanding of reproductive timing of fishes in the ecosystem. These changes may impact population productivity through changes in life history connectivity and recruitment, and add to the accumulating evidence for changes in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem with potential to impact fisheries and other ecosystem services. PMID:26398900

Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change.

PubMed

Levine, Naomi M; Zhang, Ke; Longo, Marcos; Baccini, Alessandro; Phillips, Oliver L; Lewis, Simon L; Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban; Segalin de Andrade, Ana Cristina; Brienen, Roel J W; Erwin, Terry L; Feldpausch, Ted R; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel Lorenzo; Nuñez Vargas, Percy; Prieto, Adriana; Silva-Espejo, Javier Eduardo; Malhi, Yadvinder; Moorcroft, Paul R

2016-01-19

Amazon forests, which store ∼ 50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem's resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest's response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions.

Ross Sea Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Changes during the Mid-to-Late Holocene as Indicated by Bulk Stable Isotope Analyses of Antarctic Seals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brault, E.; Koch, P. L.; McCarthy, M. D.; Hall, B. L.; Hoelzel, A. R.; Welch, A. J.; Nye, J. W.; Rosenfield, A. P.

2016-02-01

Substantial environmental changes occurred in the Ross Sea during the Holocene, with sea ice likely significantly increasing around 1,000 years before present (YBP). We are investigating the effects of these environmental changes on the biological community. Previous work demonstrates that the southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) colonies in the region began to collapse 1,000 YBP and disappeared from the area by 250 YBP. Ecosystem shifts are also evident in isotopic records. Carbon and nitrogen isotope data from Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) differ from animals in the region today, and our isotopic values of fossil southern elephant seals are inconsistent with foraging in the current Ross Sea ecosystem. The dating of these isotopic shifts is uncertain, ranging from 1,000 to 250 YBP. We examined trends in the bulk carbon and nitrogen isotope values of Weddell (Leptonychotes weddellii) and crabeater (Lobodon carcinophagus) seals over the last 5,500 years to clarify the timing of the ecosystem shift, and further explore its effects on top predators. Crabeater seals have stable mean carbon and nitrogen isotope values through the late Holocene period, suggesting stable foraging behavior. However, isotopic data from this species are more variable before 750 YBP, indicating a more diverse foraging ecology. Weddell seals show a clear transition in isotopic values around 500 YBP, similar to that previously observed in penguins. This shift may indicate a change in Weddell seal diet (to lower trophic level prey in more recent times), a changed ecosystem (with the Ross Sea becoming less productive later in the Holocene), or both. Overall, our data shows that the ecology of top predators shifted substantially in response to changes in the Ross Sea around 1,000-500 years ago.

Ecological regime shifts and changes of lake ecosystem service in a shallow Yangtze lake (Taibai Lake, China) over the past 150 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, X.; Xu, M.; Yang, X.

2017-12-01

Shallow lakes provide a range of ecosystem services such as water supply, biodiversity, aquaculture, tourism, shipping and flood regulation. Over recent decades, many lakes have become severely deteriorated due to a coupled natural and human disturbance. Given the limited monitoring records, however, we still have little knowledge on how, when and why those lake experienced ecological status shifts, and how the lake ecosystem service changed. Paleolimnological techniques were widely used in understanding the historical environmental and ecological changes. Here, we chose a typical eutrophic shallow lake, Taibai Lake, and acquired geochemistry proxies, grain size, diatom, cladocera and chironomid from a 210Pb and 137Cs dated sediment core. Document records and monitoring data are also included as important marks of social and environmental change. A T-test based algorithm of STARS reveal at least two ecological shifts, respectively in the 1960s and the 1990s. The sudden shift in the 1960s is supposed to be influenced by a dam and sluice construction in the 1950s and another shift in the 1990s should be a critical transition due to the alternation of ecosystem structure for higher fishery production. Correspondingly, lake ecosystem service (LES) also experienced significant changes. Prior to 1930s, different types of LES kept relatively stable with low values. With the dam construction in the 1960s, the changed hydrological condition led to gradual increases in both regulation and provision service. However, with much effort on fishery and reclamation, the regulation service of the lake decreased, exhibiting a tradeoff among LES. After 1990s, with intense aquaculture, most types of LSE suffered a further decrease. The long-term records exhibited that ecosystem services in primary productivity and biodiversity maintenance increased (synergies) whereas services in water-purification and climate regulating decreased significantly (tradeoffs) since 1950s, when local people are seeking higher desired services by human "modification" on lake ecosystem. By long-term records, temporal perspectives on such dynamic tradeoffs and synergies relationship among various ESs under the context of different types resource utilization over time have significant implications for management initiatives.

Permo-Triassic vertebrate extinctions: A program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, E. C.

1988-01-01

Since the time of the Authors' study on this subject, a great deal of new information has become available. Concepts of the nature of extinctions have changed materially. The Authors' conclusion that a catastrophic event was not responsible for the extinction of vertebrates has modified to the extent that hypotheses involving either the impact of a massive extra-terrestrial body or volcanism provide plausible but not currently fully testable hypotheses. Stated changes resulted in a rapid decrease in organic diversity, as the ratio of origins of taxa to extinctions shifted from strongly positive to negative, with momentary equilibrium being reached at about the Permo-Triassic boundary. The proximate causes of the changes in the terrestrial biota appear to lie in two primary factors: (1) strong climatic changes (global mean temperatures, temperature ranges, humidity) and (2) susceptibility of the dominant vertebrates (large dicynodonts) and the glossopteris flora to disruption of the equlibrium of the world ecosystem. The following proximate causes have been proposed: (1) rhythmic fluctuations in solar radiation, (2) tectonic events as Pangea assembled, altering land-ocean relationships, patterns of wind and water circulation and continental physiography, (3) volcanism, and (4) changes subsequent to impacts of one or more massive extra terrestrial objects, bodies or comets. These hypotheses are discussed.

Managing for resilience: an information theory-based approach to assessing ecosystems

EPA Science Inventory

Ecosystems are complex and multivariate; hence, methods to assess the dynamics of ecosystems should have the capacity to evaluate multiple indicators simultaneously. Most research on identifying leading indicators of regime shifts has focused on univariate methods and simple mod...

Hercules 265 rapid response: Immediate ecosystem impacts of a natural gas blowout incident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Sarah C.; Peterson, Leigha; Battles, Jessica J.; Roberts, Brian J.; Peterson, Richard N.; Hollander, David J.; Chanton, Jeffrey P.; Joye, Samantha B.; Montoya, Joseph P.

2016-07-01

In late July 2013, the Hercules 265 drilling rig in the Northern Gulf of Mexico experienced a catastrophic loss of control. Large quantities of natural gas spewed into the environment for 2 days before the well self-sealed through down-hole collapse below the seafloor. Ecosystem Impacts of Oil and Gas Inputs to the Gulf (ECOGIG) and collaborating Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI) consortia mounted a rapid response cruise to characterize the waters around the Hercules 265 rig, beginning just 4 days after the blowout. Our analysis showed an immediate microbial response to the elevated concentrations of methane in the water column, as evidenced by the drawdown of oxygen to hypoxic conditions, the incorporation of methane-derived carbon into particles, and measurable rates of methane-assimilation and nitrogen-fixation. Additionally, radium isotope measurements allowed us to constrain the timescale of bottom water exposure to the influence of the rig. A second sampling by the Center for Integrated Modeling and Analysis of Gulf Ecosystems (C-IMAGE) consortium indicated that the ecosystem had returned to near pre-blowout conditions within one month.

Qualitative assessment of climate-driven ecological shifts in the Caspian Sea

PubMed Central

Beyraghdar Kashkooli, Omid; Gröger, Joachim; Núñez-Riboni, Ismael

2017-01-01

The worldwide occurrence of complex climate-induced ecological shifts in marine systems is one of the major challenges in sustainable bio-resources management. The occurrence of ecological environment-driven shifts was studied in the Southern Caspian Sea using the “shiftogram” method on available fisheries-related (i.e. commercially important bentho-pelagic fish stocks) ecological and climatic variables. As indicators of potential environmentally driven shift patterns we used indices for the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Southern Oscillation, the Siberian High, the East Atlantic-West Russia pattern, as well as Sea Surface Temperature and surface chlorophyll-a concentration. Given the explorative findings from the serial shift analyses, the cascading and serial order of multiple shift events in climatic-ecologic conditions of the southern Caspian Sea suggested a linkage between external forces and dynamics of ecosystem components and structures in the following order: global-scale climate forces lead to local environmental processes, which in turn lead to biological components dynamics. For the first time, this study indicates that ecological shifts are an integral component of bentho-pelagic subsystem regulatory processes and dynamics. Qualitative correspondence of biological responses of bentho-pelagic stocks to climatic events is one of the supporting evidences that overall Caspian ecosystem structures and functioning might have–at least partially–been impacted by global-scale climatic or local environmental shifts. These findings may help to foster a regional Ecosystem-based Approach to Management (EAM) as an integral part of bentho-pelagic fisheries management plans. PMID:28475609

A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warszawski, Lila; Friend, Andrew; Ostberg, Sebastian; Frieler, Katja; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Beerling, David; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B.; Kahana, Ron; Ito, Akihiko; Keribin, Rozenn; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark; Nishina, Kazuya; Pavlick, Ryan; Tito Rademacher, Tim; Buechner, Matthias; Piontek, Franziska; Schewe, Jacob; Serdeczny, Olivia; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2013-12-01

Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth’s ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5-19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980-2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest.

Catastrophic photometric redshift errors: Weak-lensing survey requirements

DOE PAGES

Bernstein, Gary; Huterer, Dragan

2010-01-11

We study the sensitivity of weak lensing surveys to the effects of catastrophic redshift errors - cases where the true redshift is misestimated by a significant amount. To compute the biases in cosmological parameters, we adopt an efficient linearized analysis where the redshift errors are directly related to shifts in the weak lensing convergence power spectra. We estimate the number N spec of unbiased spectroscopic redshifts needed to determine the catastrophic error rate well enough that biases in cosmological parameters are below statistical errors of weak lensing tomography. While the straightforward estimate of N spec is ~10 6 we findmore » that using only the photometric redshifts with z ≤ 2.5 leads to a drastic reduction in N spec to ~ 30,000 while negligibly increasing statistical errors in dark energy parameters. Therefore, the size of spectroscopic survey needed to control catastrophic errors is similar to that previously deemed necessary to constrain the core of the z s – z p distribution. We also study the efficacy of the recent proposal to measure redshift errors by cross-correlation between the photo-z and spectroscopic samples. We find that this method requires ~ 10% a priori knowledge of the bias and stochasticity of the outlier population, and is also easily confounded by lensing magnification bias. In conclusion, the cross-correlation method is therefore unlikely to supplant the need for a complete spectroscopic redshift survey of the source population.« less

From teosinte to maize: the catastrophic sexual transmutation.

PubMed

Iltis, H H

1983-11-25

An alternative to the theory that the ear of maize (Zea mays ssp. mays) evolved from a slender female ear of a Mexican annual teosinte holds that it was derived from the central spike of a male teosinte inflorescence (tassel) which terminates the primary lateral branches. This alternative hypothesis is more consistent with morphology and explains the anomalous lack of significant genetic and biochemical differences between these taxa. Maize, the only cereal with unisexual inflorescences, evolved through a sudden epigenetic sexual transmutation involving condensation of primary branches, which brought their tassels into the zone of female expression, leading to strong apical dominance and a catastrophic shift in nutrient allocation. Initially, this quantum change may have involved no new mutations, but rather genetic assimilation under human selection of an abnormality, perhaps environmentally triggered.

Modeling the effects of dispersal on predicted contemporary and future fisher (Martes pennanti) distribution in the U.S

Treesearch

Lucretia Olson; M. Schwartz

2013-01-01

Many species at high trophic levels are predicted to be impacted by shifts in habitat associated with climate change. While temperate coniferous forests are predicted to be one of the least affected ecosystems, the impact of shifting habitat on terrestrial carnivores that live within these ecosystems may depend on the dispersal rates of the species and the patchiness...

Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Doney, Scott C; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Duffy, J Emmett; Barry, James P; Chan, Francis; English, Chad A; Galindo, Heather M; Grebmeier, Jacqueline M; Hollowed, Anne B; Knowlton, Nancy; Polovina, Jeffrey; Rabalais, Nancy N; Sydeman, William J; Talley, Lynne D

2012-01-01

In marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wide-ranging biological effects. Population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions. Together with local climate-driven invasion and extinction, these processes result in altered community structure and diversity, including possible emergence of novel ecosystems. Impacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. Midlatitude upwelling systems, like the California Current, exhibit strong linkages between climate and species distributions, phenology, and demography. Aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.

Shifting plant species composition in response to climate change stabilizes grassland primary production.

PubMed

Liu, Huiying; Mi, Zhaorong; Lin, Li; Wang, Yonghui; Zhang, Zhenhua; Zhang, Fawei; Wang, Hao; Liu, Lingli; Zhu, Biao; Cao, Guangmin; Zhao, Xinquan; Sanders, Nathan J; Classen, Aimée T; Reich, Peter B; He, Jin-Sheng

2018-04-17

The structure and function of alpine grassland ecosystems, including their extensive soil carbon stocks, are largely shaped by temperature. The Tibetan Plateau in particular has experienced significant warming over the past 50 y, and this warming trend is projected to intensify in the future. Such climate change will likely alter plant species composition and net primary production (NPP). Here we combined 32 y of observations and monitoring with a manipulative experiment of temperature and precipitation to explore the effects of changing climate on plant community structure and ecosystem function. First, long-term climate warming from 1983 to 2014, which occurred without systematic changes in precipitation, led to higher grass abundance and lower sedge abundance, but did not affect aboveground NPP. Second, an experimental warming experiment conducted over 4 y had no effects on any aspect of NPP, whereas drought manipulation (reducing precipitation by 50%), shifted NPP allocation belowground without affecting total NPP. Third, both experimental warming and drought treatments, supported by a meta-analysis at nine sites across the plateau, increased grass abundance at the expense of biomass of sedges and forbs. This shift in functional group composition led to deeper root systems, which may have enabled plant communities to acquire more water and thus stabilize ecosystem primary production even with a changing climate. Overall, our study demonstrates that shifting plant species composition in response to climate change may have stabilized primary production in this high-elevation ecosystem, but it also caused a shift from aboveground to belowground productivity.

Thermal optimality of net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide and underlying mechanisms.

PubMed

Niu, Shuli; Luo, Yiqi; Fei, Shenfeng; Yuan, Wenping; Schimel, David; Law, Beverly E; Ammann, Christof; Arain, M Altaf; Arneth, Almut; Aubinet, Marc; Barr, Alan; Beringer, Jason; Bernhofer, Christian; Black, T Andrew; Buchmann, Nina; Cescatti, Alessandro; Chen, Jiquan; Davis, Kenneth J; Dellwik, Ebba; Desai, Ankur R; Etzold, Sophia; Francois, Louis; Gianelle, Damiano; Gielen, Bert; Goldstein, Allen; Groenendijk, Margriet; Gu, Lianhong; Hanan, Niall; Helfter, Carole; Hirano, Takashi; Hollinger, David Y; Jones, Mike B; Kiely, Gerard; Kolb, Thomas E; Kutsch, Werner L; Lafleur, Peter; Lawrence, David M; Li, Linghao; Lindroth, Anders; Litvak, Marcy; Loustau, Denis; Lund, Magnus; Marek, Michal; Martin, Timothy A; Matteucci, Giorgio; Migliavacca, Mirco; Montagnani, Leonardo; Moors, Eddy; Munger, J William; Noormets, Asko; Oechel, Walter; Olejnik, Janusz; Kyaw Tha Paw U; Pilegaard, Kim; Rambal, Serge; Raschi, Antonio; Scott, Russell L; Seufert, Günther; Spano, Donatella; Stoy, Paul; Sutton, Mark A; Varlagin, Andrej; Vesala, Timo; Weng, Ensheng; Wohlfahrt, Georg; Yang, Bai; Zhang, Zhongda; Zhou, Xuhui

2012-05-01

• It is well established that individual organisms can acclimate and adapt to temperature to optimize their functioning. However, thermal optimization of ecosystems, as an assemblage of organisms, has not been examined at broad spatial and temporal scales. • Here, we compiled data from 169 globally distributed sites of eddy covariance and quantified the temperature response functions of net ecosystem exchange (NEE), an ecosystem-level property, to determine whether NEE shows thermal optimality and to explore the underlying mechanisms. • We found that the temperature response of NEE followed a peak curve, with the optimum temperature (corresponding to the maximum magnitude of NEE) being positively correlated with annual mean temperature over years and across sites. Shifts of the optimum temperature of NEE were mostly a result of temperature acclimation of gross primary productivity (upward shift of optimum temperature) rather than changes in the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration. • Ecosystem-level thermal optimality is a newly revealed ecosystem property, presumably reflecting associated evolutionary adaptation of organisms within ecosystems, and has the potential to significantly regulate ecosystem-climate change feedbacks. The thermal optimality of NEE has implications for understanding fundamental properties of ecosystems in changing environments and benchmarking global models. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

Functional outcomes of fungal community shifts driven by tree genotype and spatial-temporal factors in Mediterranean pine forests.

PubMed

Pérez-Izquierdo, Leticia; Zabal-Aguirre, Mario; Flores-Rentería, Dulce; González-Martínez, Santiago C; Buée, Marc; Rincón, Ana

2017-04-01

Fungi provide relevant ecosystem services contributing to primary productivity and the cycling of nutrients in forests. These fungal inputs can be decisive for the resilience of Mediterranean forests under global change scenarios, making necessary an in-deep knowledge about how fungal communities operate in these ecosystems. By using high-throughput sequencing and enzymatic approaches, we studied the fungal communities associated with three genotypic variants of Pinus pinaster trees, in 45-year-old common garden plantations. We aimed to determine the impact of biotic (i.e., tree genotype) and abiotic (i.e., season, site) factors on the fungal community structure, and to explore whether structural shifts triggered functional responses affecting relevant ecosystem processes. Tree genotype and spatial-temporal factors were pivotal structuring fungal communities, mainly by influencing their assemblage and selecting certain fungi. Diversity variations of total fungal community and of that of specific fungal guilds, together with edaphic properties and tree's productivity, explained relevant ecosystem services such as processes involved in carbon turnover and phosphorous mobilization. A mechanistic model integrating relations of these variables and ecosystem functional outcomes is provided. Our results highlight the importance of structural shifts in fungal communities because they may have functional consequences for key ecosystem processes in Mediterranean forests. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley and Sons Ltd.

Ecosystem thresholds in Lake Kälksjön, Sweden, in response to rapid climate cooling 8200 years ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randsalu Wendrup, Linda; Conley, Daniel J.; Hammarlund, Dan; Snowball, Ian; Carstensen, Jacob; Fritz, Sherilyn C.

2010-05-01

Commonly, ecosystems are thought to show a smooth response in relation to gradually changing conditions, shifting over long periods of time from one state to another, thus reflecting the continuum of change along environmental gradients for each set of conditions. The theoretical concept that ecosystems can experience regime shifts and shift abruptly from one state to another, producing changes in dominance of organisms and overall ecosystem behaviour has, however, existed for more than 30 years. The theory has been further developed and it has been demonstrated, in a number of different terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems, that ecosystems stressed by human or climate perturbations can undergo drastic changes, first reaching an ecological threshold and then switching abruptly to an alternative state. The study of regime shifts in lakes as a result of climate change is complicated because lake biota and processes depend not only on regional climate changes but also on changes in the lake catchment and processes within the lake. Many factors in a lake will respond simultaneously and differently to the effects of climate change, resulting in complex synergy within the aquatic environment. Nevertheless we want to bring together concepts generated in contemporary ecological studies to study and test hypotheses regarding sudden mode shifts and ecological reorganisations in lakes using paleoecological methods, using diatom and numerical analyses as the main analytical tools. We are investigating how lakes respond to climate, during periods of both cooling and warming, identifying thresholds at which regime shifts occur and trying to develop numerical methods to test for regime shifts in paleoecological data. Here we present the preliminary results from a study of the ecosystem response to the "8.2 ka cold event" in Lake Kälksjön in west central Sweden. The lake is annually laminated (varved) and a series of nine radiocarbon measurements obtained at increments of 50 years have been used to wiggle match the sediments to the tree-ring derived radiocarbon calibration curve (Snowball et al., in press). Snowball et al. (in press) used the wiggle matching, organic carbon measurements, mineral magnetic parameters and XRF data and reconstructed a distinct period of enhanced erosion in the catchment from 8066±25 to 7920±25 cal. yr BP. Their results suggest that an abrupt onset of winter precipitation in west-central Sweden started at least 50 years after the onset of the "8.2 kyr cold event" as defined by oxygen isotope data from Greenland. The lake has been sampled for diatom analysis at increments of 10 years over 500 years covering the 8.2 event. The wiggle matched chronology and presence of varves allows for a high resolution time constrained diatom analysis which we hope will reveal the response of the ecosystem to the rapid cooling and also allow us to work on developing and testing numerical methods for detecting and analysing regime shifts. A preliminary low resolution diatom study shows that the diatom flora displays a benthic response to the climate cooling. It also shows that the diatoms seem to react earlier than the previously measured parameters, suggesting that the diatoms and the lake ecosystem are affected by the rapid cooling rather immediately, for example due to changes in ice cover duration, while increased winter precipitation affects the ecosystem at a later stage.

Bottomland Hardwood Ecosystem Management Project

Treesearch

John A. Stanturf; Calvin E. Meier

1994-01-01

Federal agency approaches to land management are undergoing a shift from parcel-specific concerns toward a more holistic, ecosystem management approach. Southern bottomland hardwood ecosystems provide important environmental services and commodity goods (Wharton et al. 1982), yet much of our knowledge of these systems comes from anecdotal information. The Bottomland...

Tipping elements in the Arctic marine ecosystem.

PubMed

Duarte, Carlos M; Agustí, Susana; Wassmann, Paul; Arrieta, Jesús M; Alcaraz, Miquel; Coello, Alexandra; Marbà, Núria; Hendriks, Iris E; Holding, Johnna; García-Zarandona, Iñigo; Kritzberg, Emma; Vaqué, Dolors

2012-02-01

The Arctic marine ecosystem contains multiple elements that present alternative states. The most obvious of which is an Arctic Ocean largely covered by an ice sheet in summer versus one largely devoid of such cover. Ecosystems under pressure typically shift between such alternative states in an abrupt, rather than smooth manner, with the level of forcing required for shifting this status termed threshold or tipping point. Loss of Arctic ice due to anthropogenic climate change is accelerating, with the extent of Arctic sea ice displaying increased variance at present, a leading indicator of the proximity of a possible tipping point. Reduced ice extent is expected, in turn, to trigger a number of additional tipping elements, physical, chemical, and biological, in motion, with potentially large impacts on the Arctic marine ecosystem.

Megascale processes: Natural disasters and human behavior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kieffer, S.W.; Barton, P.; Chesworth, W.; Palmer, A.R.; Reitan, P.; Zen, E.-A.

2009-01-01

Megascale geologic processes, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, floods, and meteoritic impacts have occurred intermittently throughout geologic time, and perhaps on several planets. Unlike other catastrophes discussed in this volume, a unique process is unfolding on Earth, one in which humans may be the driving agent of megadisasters. Although local effects on population clusters may have been catastrophic in the past, human societies have never been interconnected globally at the scale that currently exists. We review some megascale processes and their effects in the past, and compare present conditions and possible outcomes. We then propose that human behavior itself is having effects on the planet that are comparable to, or greater than, these natural disasters. Yet, unlike geologic processes, human behavior is potentially under our control. Because the effects of our behavior threaten the stability, or perhaps even existence, of a civilized society, we call for the creation of a body to institute coherent global, credible, scientifi cally based action that is sensitive to political, economic, religious, and cultural values. The goal would be to institute aggressive monitoring, identify and understand trends, predict their consequences, and suggest and evaluate alternative actions to attempt to rescue ourselves and our ecosystems from catastrophe. We provide a template modeled after several existing national and international bodies. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Seeing the forest and the trees - A cross-scale assessment of wildfire and carbon dynamics in fire-prone, forested ecosystems

Treesearch

Rachel A. Loehman; Elizabeth Reinhardt; Karin L. Riley

2014-01-01

Wildfires are an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and one of the main pathways for movement of carbon from the land surface to the atmosphere. Fires have received much attention in recent years as potential catalysts for shifting landscapes from carbon sinks to carbon sources. Unless structural or functional ecosystem shifts occur, net carbon balance...

The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people.

PubMed

Scheffers, Brett R; De Meester, Luc; Bridge, Tom C L; Hoffmann, Ary A; Pandolfi, John M; Corlett, Richard T; Butchart, Stuart H M; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Kovacs, Kit M; Dudgeon, David; Pacifici, Michela; Rondinini, Carlo; Foden, Wendy B; Martin, Tara G; Mora, Camilo; Bickford, David; Watson, James E M

2016-11-11

Most ecological processes now show responses to anthropogenic climate change. In terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, species are changing genetically, physiologically, morphologically, and phenologically and are shifting their distributions, which affects food webs and results in new interactions. Disruptions scale from the gene to the ecosystem and have documented consequences for people, including unpredictable fisheries and crop yields, loss of genetic diversity in wild crop varieties, and increasing impacts of pests and diseases. In addition to the more easily observed changes, such as shifts in flowering phenology, we argue that many hidden dynamics, such as genetic changes, are also taking place. Understanding shifts in ecological processes can guide human adaptation strategies. In addition to reducing greenhouse gases, climate action and policy must therefore focus equally on strategies that safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Accelerating Tropicalization and the Transformation of Temperate Seagrass Meadows

PubMed Central

Hyndes, Glenn A.; Heck, Kenneth L.; Vergés, Adriana; Harvey, Euan S.; Kendrick, Gary A.; Lavery, Paul S.; McMahon, Kathryn; Orth, Robert J.; Pearce, Alan; Vanderklift, Mathew; Wernberg, Thomas; Whiting, Scott; Wilson, Shaun

2016-01-01

Abstract Climate-driven changes are altering production and functioning of biotic assemblages in terrestrial and aquatic environments. In temperate coastal waters, rising sea temperatures, warm water anomalies and poleward shifts in the distribution of tropical herbivores have had a detrimental effect on algal forests. We develop generalized scenarios of this form of tropicalization and its potential effects on the structure and functioning of globally significant and threatened seagrass ecosystems, through poleward shifts in tropical seagrasses and herbivores. Initially, we expect tropical herbivorous fishes to establish in temperate seagrass meadows, followed later by megafauna. Tropical seagrasses are likely to establish later, delayed by more limited dispersal abilities. Ultimately, food webs are likely to shift from primarily seagrass-detritus to more direct-consumption-based systems, thereby affecting a range of important ecosystem services that seagrasses provide, including their nursery habitat role for fishery species, carbon sequestration, and the provision of organic matter to other ecosystems in temperate regions. PMID:28533562

Accelerating Tropicalization and the Transformation of Temperate Seagrass Meadows.

PubMed

Hyndes, Glenn A; Heck, Kenneth L; Vergés, Adriana; Harvey, Euan S; Kendrick, Gary A; Lavery, Paul S; McMahon, Kathryn; Orth, Robert J; Pearce, Alan; Vanderklift, Mathew; Wernberg, Thomas; Whiting, Scott; Wilson, Shaun

2016-11-01

Climate-driven changes are altering production and functioning of biotic assemblages in terrestrial and aquatic environments. In temperate coastal waters, rising sea temperatures, warm water anomalies and poleward shifts in the distribution of tropical herbivores have had a detrimental effect on algal forests. We develop generalized scenarios of this form of tropicalization and its potential effects on the structure and functioning of globally significant and threatened seagrass ecosystems, through poleward shifts in tropical seagrasses and herbivores. Initially, we expect tropical herbivorous fishes to establish in temperate seagrass meadows, followed later by megafauna. Tropical seagrasses are likely to establish later, delayed by more limited dispersal abilities. Ultimately, food webs are likely to shift from primarily seagrass-detritus to more direct-consumption-based systems, thereby affecting a range of important ecosystem services that seagrasses provide, including their nursery habitat role for fishery species, carbon sequestration, and the provision of organic matter to other ecosystems in temperate regions.

The Ecosystem Indicator Partnership shifts from ESIP 1.0 to ESIP 2.0

EPA Science Inventory

The Gulf of Maine Council’s EcoSystem Indicator Partnership (ESIP) was formed in 2006 to look at change in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem through the use of indicators. To date, ESIP has published 6 fact sheets on: aquaculture, aquatic Habitats, climate change, coastal develop...

A Framework to Quantify the Strength of the Ecological Links Between an Environmental Stressor and Final Ecosystem Services

EPA Science Inventory

Anthropogenic stressors such as climate change, fire, and pollution are driving shifts in ecosystem function and resilience. Scientists generally rely on biological indicators of these stressors to signal that ecosystem conditions have been altered beyond an acceptable amount. Ho...

Contrasting patterns of free-living bacterioplankton diversity in macrophyte-dominated versus phytoplankton blooming regimes in Dianchi Lake, a shallow lake in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yujing; Li, Huabing; Xing, Peng; Wu, Qinglong

2017-03-01

Freshwater shallow lakes typically exhibit two alternative stable states under certain nutrient loadings: macrophyte-dominated and phytoplankton-dominated water regimes. An ecosystem regime shift from macrophytes to phytoplankton blooming typically reduces the number of species of invertebrates and fishes and results in the homogenization of communities in freshwater lakes. We investigated how microbial biodiversity has responded to a shift of the ecosystem regime in Dianchi Lake, which was previously fully covered with submerged macrophytes but currently harbors both ecological states. We observed marked divergence in the diversity and community composition of bacterioplankton between the two regimes. Although species richness, estimated as the number of operational taxonomic units and phylogenetic diversity (PD), was higher in the phytoplankton dominated ecosystem after this shift, the dissimilarity of bacterioplankton community across space decreased. This decrease in beta diversity was accompanied by loss of planktonic bacteria unique to the macrophyte-dominated ecosystem. Mantel tests between bacterioplankton community distances and Euclidian distance of environmental parameters indicated that this reduced bacterial community differentiation primarily reflected the loss of environmental niches, particularly in the macrophyte regime. The loss of this small-scale heterogeneity in bacterial communities should be considered when assessing long-term biodiversity changes in response to ecosystem regime conversions in freshwater lakes.

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Western Region Kasatochi Volcano Coastal and Ocean Science

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeGange, Anthony

2010-01-01

Alaska is noteworthy as a region of frequent seismic and volcanic activity. The region contains 52 historically active volcanoes, 14 of which have had at least one major eruptive event since 1990. Despite the high frequency of volcanic activity in Alaska, comprehensive studies of how ecosystems respond to volcanic eruptions are non-existent. On August 7, 2008, Kasatochi Volcano, in the central Aleutian Islands, erupted catastrophically, covering the island with ash and hot pyroclastic flow material. Kasatochi Island was an annual monitoring site of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge (AMNWR); therefore, features of the terrestrial and nearshore ecosystems of the island were well known. In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), AMNWR, and University of Alaska Fairbanks began long-term studies to better understand the effects of the eruption and the role of volcanism in structuring ecosystems in the Aleutian Islands, a volcano-dominated region with high natural resource values.

Connecting the Dots: Responses of Coastal Ecosystems to Changing Nutrient Concentrations

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Empirical relationships between phytoplankton biomass and nutrient concentrations established across a wide range of different ecosystems constitute fundamental quantitative tools for predicting effects of nutrient management plans. Nutrient management plans based on such relationships, mostly established over trends of increasing rather than decreasing nutrient concentrations, assume full reversibility of coastal eutrophication. Monitoring data from 28 ecosystems located in four well-studied regions were analyzed to study the generality of chlorophyll a versus nutrient relationships and their applicability for ecosystem management. We demonstrate significant differences across regions as well as between specific coastal ecosystems within regions in the response of chlorophyll a to changing nitrogen concentrations. We also show that the chlorophyll a versus nitrogen relationships over time constitute convoluted trajectories rather than simple unique relationships. The ratio of chlorophyll a to total nitrogen almost doubled over the last 30–40 years across all regions. The uniformity of these trends, or shifting baselines, suggest they may result from large-scale changes, possibly associated with global climate change and increasing human stress on coastal ecosystems. Ecosystem management must, therefore, develop adaptation strategies to face shifting baselines and maintain ecosystem services at a sustainable level rather than striving to restore an ecosystem state of the past. PMID:21958109

Human-aided admixture may fuel ecosystem transformation during biological invasions: theoretical and experimental evidence.

PubMed

Molofsky, Jane; Keller, Stephen R; Lavergne, Sébastien; Kaproth, Matthew A; Eppinga, Maarten B

2014-04-01

Biological invasions can transform our understanding of how the interplay of historical isolation and contemporary (human-aided) dispersal affects the structure of intraspecific diversity in functional traits, and in turn, how changes in functional traits affect other scales of biological organization such as communities and ecosystems. Because biological invasions frequently involve the admixture of previously isolated lineages as a result of human-aided dispersal, studies of invasive populations can reveal how admixture results in novel genotypes and shifts in functional trait variation within populations. Further, because invasive species can be ecosystem engineers within invaded ecosystems, admixture-induced shifts in the functional traits of invaders can affect the composition of native biodiversity and alter the flow of resources through the system. Thus, invasions represent promising yet under-investigated examples of how the effects of short-term evolutionary changes can cascade across biological scales of diversity. Here, we propose a conceptual framework that admixture between divergent source populations during biological invasions can reorganize the genetic variation underlying key functional traits, leading to shifts in the mean and variance of functional traits within invasive populations. Changes in the mean or variance of key traits can initiate new ecological feedback mechanisms that result in a critical transition from a native ecosystem to a novel invasive ecosystem. We illustrate the application of this framework with reference to a well-studied plant model system in invasion biology and show how a combination of quantitative genetic experiments, functional trait studies, whole ecosystem field studies and modeling can be used to explore the dynamics predicted to trigger these critical transitions.

Shifts in the distribution of molting Spectacled Eiders (Somateria fischeri) indicate ecosystem change in the Arctic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sexson, Matthew; Petersen, Margaret; Breed, Greg A.; Powell, Abby N.

2016-01-01

Shifts in the distribution of benthivorous predators provide an indication of underlying environmental changes in benthic-mediated ecosystems. Spectacled Eiders (Somateria fischeri) are benthivorous sea ducks that spend the nonbreeding portion of their annual cycle in the Bering, Chukchi, Beaufort, and East Siberian seas. Sea ducks generally molt in biologically productive areas with abundant prey. If the distribution of eiders at molting areas matches prey abundance, spatial shifts may indicate changes in environmental conditions in the Arctic. We used a randomization procedure to test for shifts in the distribution of satellite telemetry locations received from Spectacled Eiders in the 1990s and 2008–2011 within 4 late-summer, ice-free molting areas: Indigirka–Kolyma, northern Russia; Ledyard Bay, eastern Chukchi Sea; Norton Sound, northeastern Bering Sea; and Mechigmenskiy Gulf, northwestern Bering Sea. We also tested for interannual and interdecadal changes in dive depth required to reach prey, which might affect the energetic costs of foraging during the molting period. Transmitter-marked birds used each molting area in each year, although the distribution of Spectacled Eiders shifted within each area. Interdecadal shifts in Ledyard Bay and Norton Sound decreased dive depth in recent years, although minor differences in depth were biologically negligible in relation to the energetic expense of feather growth. Shifts in Mechigmenskiy Gulf and Indigirka–Kolyma did not occur consistently within or among decades, which suggests greater interannual variability among environmental factors that influence distribution in these areas. Shifts in each molting area suggest dynamic ecosystem processes, with implications for Spectacled Eiders if changes result in novel competition or predation, or in shifting prey regimes.

Shift in community structure in an early-successional Mediterranean shrubland driven by long-term experimental warming and drought and natural extreme droughts.

PubMed

Liu, Daijun; Estiarte, Marc; Ogaya, Romà; Yang, Xiaohong; Peñuelas, Josep

2017-10-01

Global warming and recurring drought are expected to accelerate water limitation for plant communities in semiarid Mediterranean ecosystems and produce directional shifts in structure and composition that are not easily detected, and supporting evidence is scarce. We conducted a long-term (17 years) nocturnal-warming (+0.6°C) and drought (-40% rainfall) experiments in an early-successional Mediterranean shrubland to study the changes in community structure and composition, contrasting functional groups and dominant species, and the superimposed effects of natural extreme drought. Species richness decreased in both the warming and drought treatments. Responses to the moderate warming were associated with decreases in herb abundance, and responses to the drought were associated with decreases in both herb and shrub abundances. The drought also significantly decreased community diversity and evenness. Changes in abundance differed between herbs (decreases) and shrubs (increases or no changes). Both warming and drought, especially drought, increased the relative species richness and abundance of shrubs, favoring the establishment of shrubs. Both warming and drought produced significant shifts in plant community composition. Experimental warming shifted the community composition from Erica multiflora toward Rosmarinus officinalis, and drought consistently shifted the composition toward Globularia alypum. The responses in biodiversity (e.g., community biodiversity, changes of functional groups and compositional shifts) were also strongly correlated with atmospheric drought (SPEI) in winter-spring and/or summer, indicating sensitivity to water limitation in this early-successional Mediterranean ecosystem, especially to natural extreme droughts. Our results suggest that the shifts in species assembles and community diversity and composition are accelerated by the long-term nocturnal-warming and drought, combined with natural severe droughts, and that the magnitude of the impacts of climate change is also correlated with the successional status of ecosystem. The results thus highlight the necessity for assessing the impacts on ecosystemic functioning and services and developing effective measures for conserving biodiversity. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Shifting plant species composition in response to climate change stabilizes grassland primary production

PubMed Central

Liu, Huiying; Mi, Zhaorong; Lin, Li; Wang, Yonghui; Zhang, Zhenhua; Zhang, Fawei; Wang, Hao; Liu, Lingli; Zhu, Biao; Cao, Guangmin; Zhao, Xinquan; Sanders, Nathan J.; Reich, Peter B.

2018-01-01

The structure and function of alpine grassland ecosystems, including their extensive soil carbon stocks, are largely shaped by temperature. The Tibetan Plateau in particular has experienced significant warming over the past 50 y, and this warming trend is projected to intensify in the future. Such climate change will likely alter plant species composition and net primary production (NPP). Here we combined 32 y of observations and monitoring with a manipulative experiment of temperature and precipitation to explore the effects of changing climate on plant community structure and ecosystem function. First, long-term climate warming from 1983 to 2014, which occurred without systematic changes in precipitation, led to higher grass abundance and lower sedge abundance, but did not affect aboveground NPP. Second, an experimental warming experiment conducted over 4 y had no effects on any aspect of NPP, whereas drought manipulation (reducing precipitation by 50%), shifted NPP allocation belowground without affecting total NPP. Third, both experimental warming and drought treatments, supported by a meta-analysis at nine sites across the plateau, increased grass abundance at the expense of biomass of sedges and forbs. This shift in functional group composition led to deeper root systems, which may have enabled plant communities to acquire more water and thus stabilize ecosystem primary production even with a changing climate. Overall, our study demonstrates that shifting plant species composition in response to climate change may have stabilized primary production in this high-elevation ecosystem, but it also caused a shift from aboveground to belowground productivity. PMID:29666319

[Evaluation of ecosystem resilience in the regions across Qinghai-Tibet railway based on GIS].

PubMed

Gao, Jiang-bo; Zhao, Zhi-qiang; Li, Shuang-cheng

2008-11-01

Based on GIS technique and the methods of mean-squared deviation weight decision and catastrophe progression, a more clear definition and associated evaluation for ecosystem resilience were given, with a case study in the regions across Qinghai-Tibet railway by using the indices of plant community coverage, species diversity, and biomass. It was shown that the areas with high ecosystem resilience were mainly located in the Qilian Mountain meadow grassland, Huangshui Valley needle-leaved and deciduous broad-leaved forest, and south Tanggula Mountain kobresia swamp meadow, while those with the lowest resilience were in the central part of Qaidam Basin, and the Kunlun Mountains. Most areas in the regions had higher or medium ecosystem resilience, with a trend of that in the south of Kunlun Mountains, the resilience in the north of the railway was lower, while in the east of Qaidam Basin (especially in the Qinghai Lake area), the resilience was lower in the south than in the north of the railway. Through the evaluation of ecosystem resilience, the key issues in the process of ecological resilience could be found, and corresponding effective measures would be pointed out to manage alpine ecosystems. Moreover, combining with the evaluation of vulnerability, scientific basis for regional development could be provided to avoid or mitigate the negative effects of human activities on eco-environment.

Shifted energy fluxes, increased Bowen ratios, and reduced thaw depths linked with drainage-induced changes in permafrost ecosystem structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Göckede, Mathias; Kittler, Fanny; Kwon, Min Jung; Burjack, Ina; Heimann, Martin; Kolle, Olaf; Zimov, Nikita; Zimov, Sergey

2017-12-01

Hydrologic conditions are a key factor in Arctic ecosystems, with strong influences on ecosystem structure and related effects on biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes. With systematic changes in water availability expected for large parts of the northern high-latitude region in the coming centuries, knowledge on shifts in ecosystem functionality triggered by altered water levels is crucial for reducing uncertainties in climate change predictions. Here, we present findings from paired ecosystem observations in northeast Siberia comprising a drained and a control site. At the drainage site, the water table has been artificially lowered by up to 30 cm in summer for more than a decade. This sustained primary disturbance in hydrologic conditions has triggered a suite of secondary shifts in ecosystem properties, including vegetation community structure, snow cover dynamics, and radiation budget, all of which influence the net effects of drainage. Reduced thermal conductivity in dry organic soils was identified as the dominating drainage effect on energy budget and soil thermal regime. Through this effect, reduced heat transfer into deeper soil layers leads to shallower thaw depths, initially leading to a stabilization of organic permafrost soils, while the long-term effects on permafrost temperature trends still need to be assessed. At the same time, more energy is transferred back into the atmosphere as sensible heat in the drained area, which may trigger a warming of the lower atmospheric surface layer.

Water resources management in a homogenizing world: Averting the Growth and Underinvestment trajectory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirchi, Ali; Watkins, David W.; Huckins, Casey J.; Madani, Kaveh; Hjorth, Peder

2014-09-01

Biotic homogenization, a de facto symptom of a global biodiversity crisis, underscores the urgency of reforming water resources management to focus on the health and viability of ecosystems. Global population and economic growth, coupled with inadequate investment in maintenance of ecological systems, threaten to degrade environmental integrity and ecosystem services that support the global socioeconomic system, indicative of a system governed by the Growth and Underinvestment (G&U) archetype. Water resources management is linked to biotic homogenization and degradation of system integrity through alteration of water systems, ecosystem dynamics, and composition of the biota. Consistent with the G&U archetype, water resources planning primarily treats ecological considerations as exogenous constraints rather than integral, dynamic, and responsive parts of the system. It is essential that the ecological considerations be made objectives of water resources development plans to facilitate the analysis of feedbacks and potential trade-offs between socioeconomic gains and ecological losses. We call for expediting a shift to ecosystem-based management of water resources, which requires a better understanding of the dynamics and links between water resources management actions, ecological side-effects, and associated long-term ramifications for sustainability. To address existing knowledge gaps, models that include dynamics and estimated thresholds for regime shifts or ecosystem degradation need to be developed. Policy levers for implementation of ecosystem-based water resources management include shifting away from growth-oriented supply management, better demand management, increased public awareness, and institutional reform that promotes adaptive and transdisciplinary management approaches.

Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change

PubMed Central

Longo, Marcos; Baccini, Alessandro; Phillips, Oliver L.; Lewis, Simon L.; Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban; Segalin de Andrade, Ana Cristina; Brienen, Roel J. W.; Erwin, Terry L.; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel Lorenzo; Nuñez Vargas, Percy; Prieto, Adriana; Silva-Espejo, Javier Eduardo; Malhi, Yadvinder; Moorcroft, Paul R.

2016-01-01

Amazon forests, which store ∼50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem’s resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest’s response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions. PMID:26711984

The success and repeal of the Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act: a paradoxical lesson for health care reform.

PubMed

Aaronson, W E; Zinn, J S; Rosko, M D

1994-01-01

Congress intended the Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act (MCCA) of 1988 to reduce the risk for illness-related catastrophic financial losses in the elderly. The act was short-lived, facing repeal just one year after passage. Many elderly persons were convinced that the costs of the program outweighed the benefits. However nursing home payment provisions of the MCCA may have affected out-of-pocket expenses paid by the elderly for long-term care more than consumers realized at the time of repeal. A transmittal memorandum, issued by the Health Care Financing Administration independent of Congressional action, enhanced consumers' ability to qualify for Medicare nursing home benefits. We investigated the effects of the Medicare policy change on nursing home payer mix and out-of-pocket expenses in 489 Pennsylvania nursing homes. We found that substantial shifts in payer mix from self-pay to Medicare payment sources occurred, reducing out-of-pocket expenses. Unfortunately the debate over the MCCA's repeal did not include discussion of the improved nursing home benefit structure. These findings, and the fate of the MCCA legislation, reinforce the importance of comprehensive information and clear communication in promoting health care reform.

Current state and prospects of carbon management in high latitudes of Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schepaschenko, Dmitry; Shvidenko, Anatoly

2010-05-01

The current state and trajectories of future development of natural landscapes in high latitudes of Northern Eurasia are defined inter alia by (1) current unsatisfactory social and economic situation in boreal Northern Eurasia; (2) the dramatic magnitude of on-going and expected climatic change (warming up to 10-12oC under global warming at 4oC); (3) increasing anthropogenic pressure, particularly in regions of intensive oil and gas exploration and extraction; (4) large areas of sparsely populated and practically unmanaged land; (5) vulnerability of northern ecosystems which historically developed under cold climates and buffering capacity of which is not well known; (6) risk of catastrophic natural disturbances (fire, insect outbreaks) whose frequency and severity have accelerated during recent decades; and (7) high probability of irreversible changes of vegetation cover. These specifics are overlapped with insufficient governance of natural renewable resources (e.g., forests) and destructed practice of industrial development of new territories (oil and gas extraction and exploration, metallurgy etc.). Based on a full carbon account for terrestrial vegetation ecosystems of Northern Eurasia, we analyze the relative impacts of major drivers on magnitude and uncertainty of the Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance (NECB) under current and expected climate and environment. Dynamic trends and interannual variability of NECB are mostly dependent on weather conditions during growth seasons of individual years, regimes of natural disturbances, and anthropogenic impacts on ecosystems. In a short term, disturbances and human impacts cause a theoretically 'manageable' part of the full carbon account, which on average is estimated to be of about 20% of annual net primary production. In a long term, thawing of permafrost and change of hydrological regimes of vast territories may result in a catastrophic decline of the forested area and wide distribution of 'green desertification'. The paradigm of sustainable forest management (SFM) is a cornerstone of integrated landscape management in boreal regions and a basic prerequisite of proper management of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Basic drivers which generate major threats for terrestrial ecosystems and particularly for forests are increasing aridity of climate over major part of Asian Russia (the trend already clearly observed during the last 50 years), intra-seasonal variability of weather and irreversible changes of the hydrological regime. Development of an efficient system of forest protection is a crucial prerequisite. Current fire protection requires principal improvement of all its components (monitoring; technical and financial capacity; education of population; etc). Preparation of boreal landscape structure against the increasing threat of catastrophic fire is an urgent today's problem. However, transition to SFM is hindered by economic stagnation of vast territories (outside of areas of intensively exploited natural resources) and unsatisfactory demographic processes. Introduction of ecologically friendly methods of industrial development and integrated land management on a landscape basis is one of the very few ways to introduce proper carbon management in the region. A number of socio-economic and land use - land cover scenarios for such development indicate the existence of possible methods to do so if appropriate national policies will be developed and implemented.

U.S. Climate change science program. Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.2: Thresholds of change in ecosystems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the past three decades, climate change has become a pronounced driver of ecosystem change. Changes in phenology, range shift of species, and increases in disturbances such as wildfires have all reflected ecosystem scales responses to a warming biosphere. There have also been abrupt, nonlinear cha...

Direct and terrestrial vegetation-mediated effects of environmental change on aquatic ecosystem processes

Treesearch

Becky A. Ball; John S. Kominoski; Heather E. Adams; Stuart E. Jones; Evan S. Kane; Terrance D. Loecke; Wendy M. Mahaney; Jason P. Martina; Chelse M. Prather; Todd M.P. Robinson; Christopher T. Solomon

2010-01-01

Global environmental changes have direct effects on aquatic ecosystems, as well as indirect effects through alterations of adjacent terrestrial ecosystem structure and functioning. For example, shifts in terrestrial vegetation communities resulting from global changes can affect the quantity and quality of water, organic matter, and nutrient inputs to aquatic...

Coral–algal phase shifts alter fish communities and reduce fisheries production

PubMed Central

Ainsworth, Cameron H; Mumby, Peter J

2015-01-01

Anthropogenic stress has been shown to reduce coral coverage in ecosystems all over the world. A phase shift towards an algae-dominated system may accompany coral loss. In this case, the composition of the reef-associated fish assemblage will change and human communities relying on reef fisheries for income and food security may be negatively impacted. We present a case study based on the Raja Ampat Archipelago in Eastern Indonesia. Using a dynamic food web model, we simulate the loss of coral reefs with accompanied transition towards an algae-dominated state and quantify the likely change in fish populations and fisheries productivity. One set of simulations represents extreme scenarios, including 100% loss of coral. In this experiment, ecosystem changes are driven by coral loss itself and a degree of habitat dependency by reef fish is assumed. An alternative simulation is presented without assumed habitat dependency, where changes to the ecosystem are driven by historical observations of reef fish communities when coral is lost. The coral–algal phase shift results in reduced biodiversity and ecosystem maturity. Relative increases in the biomass of small-bodied fish species mean higher productivity on reefs overall, but much reduced landings of traditionally targeted species. PMID:24953835

Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems.

PubMed

Bradshaw, Corey J A; Brook, Barry W

2014-11-18

The inexorable demographic momentum of the global human population is rapidly eroding Earth's life-support system. There are consequently more frequent calls to address environmental problems by advocating further reductions in human fertility. To examine how quickly this could lead to a smaller human population, we used scenario-based matrix modeling to project the global population to the year 2100. Assuming a continuation of current trends in mortality reduction, even a rapid transition to a worldwide one-child policy leads to a population similar to today's by 2100. Even a catastrophic mass mortality event of 2 billion deaths over a hypothetical 5-y window in the mid-21(st) century would still yield around 8.5 billion people by 2100. In the absence of catastrophe or large fertility reductions (to fewer than two children per female worldwide), the greatest threats to ecosystems--as measured by regional projections within the 35 global Biodiversity Hotspots--indicate that Africa and South Asia will experience the greatest human pressures on future ecosystems. Humanity's large demographic momentum means that there are no easy policy levers to change the size of the human population substantially over coming decades, short of extreme and rapid reductions in female fertility; it will take centuries, and the long-term target remains unclear. However, some reduction could be achieved by midcentury and lead to hundreds of millions fewer people to feed. More immediate results for sustainability would emerge from policies and technologies that reverse rising consumption of natural resources.

Evidence for a climate-induced ecohydrological state shift in wetland ecosystems of the southern Prairie Pothole Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenna, Owen; Mushet, David M.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; LaBaugh, James W.

2017-01-01

Changing magnitude, frequency, and timing of precipitation can influence aquatic-system hydrological, geochemical, and biological processes, in some cases resulting in system-wide shifts to an alternate state. Since the early 1990s, the southern Prairie Pothole Region has been subjected to an extended period of increased wetness resulting in marked changes to aquatic systems defining this region. We explored numerous lines of evidence to identify: (1) how the recent wet period compared to historical variability, (2) hydrological, geochemical, and biological responses, and (3) how these responses might represent a state shift in the region’s wetland ecosystems. We analyzed long-term climate records and compared how different hydrological variables responded in this wet period compared to decades before the observed shift. Additionally, we used multi-decadal records of waterfowl population and subsurface tile drain records to explore wildlife and human responses to a shifting climate. Since 1993, a novel precipitation regime corresponded with increased pond numbers, ponded-water depths, lake levels, stream flows, groundwater heights, soil-moisture, waterfowl populations, and installation of subsurface tile drains in agricultural fields. These observed changes reflect an alteration in water storage and movement across the landscape that in turn has altered solute sources and concentrations of prairie-pothole wetlands and has increased pond permanence. Combined, these changes represent significant evidence for a state shift in the ecohydrological functioning of the region’s wetland ecosystems, a shift that may require a significant refinement of the previously developed “wetland continuum” concept.

The carbon balance pivot point of southwestern U.S. semiarid ecosystems: Insights from the 21st century drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, Russell L.; Biederman, Joel A.; Hamerlynck, Erik P.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.

2015-12-01

Global-scale studies indicate that semiarid regions strongly regulate the terrestrial carbon sink. However, we lack understanding of how climatic shifts, such as decadal drought, impact carbon sequestration across the wide range of structural diversity in semiarid ecosystems. Therefore, we used eddy covariance measurements to quantify how net ecosystem production of carbon dioxide (NEP) differed with relative grass and woody plant abundance over the last decade of drought in four Southwest U.S. ecosystems. We identified a precipitation "pivot point" in the carbon balance for each ecosystem where annual NEP switched from negative to positive. Ecosystems with grass had pivot points closer to the drought period precipitation than the predrought average, making them more likely to be carbon sinks (and a grass-free shrubland, a carbon source) during the current drought. One reason for this is that the grassland located closest to the shrubland supported higher leaf area and photosynthesis at the same water availability. Higher leaf area was associated with a greater proportion of evapotranspiration being transpiration (T/ET), and therefore with higher ecosystem water use efficiency (gross ecosystem photosynthesis/ET). Our findings strongly show that water availability is a primary driver of both gross and net semiarid productivity and illustrate that structural differences may contribute to the speed at which ecosystem carbon cycling adjusts to climatic shifts.

Dynamics of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal community structure and functioning along a nitrogen enrichment gradient in an alpine meadow ecosystem.

PubMed

Jiang, Shengjing; Liu, Yongjun; Luo, Jiajia; Qin, Mingsen; Johnson, Nancy Collins; Öpik, Maarja; Vasar, Martti; Chai, Yuxing; Zhou, Xiaolong; Mao, Lin; Du, Guozhen; An, Lizhe; Feng, Huyuan

2018-03-30

Nitrogen (N) availability is increasing dramatically in many ecosystems, but the influence of elevated N on the functioning of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi in natural ecosystems is not well understood. We measured AM fungal community structure and mycorrhizal function simultaneously across an experimental N addition gradient in an alpine meadow that is limited by N but not by phosphorus (P). AM fungal communities at both whole-plant-community (mixed roots) and single-plant-species (Elymus nutans roots) scales were described using pyro-sequencing, and the mycorrhizal functioning was quantified using a mycorrhizal-suppression treatment in the field (whole-plant-community scale) and a glasshouse inoculation experiment (single-plant-species scale). Nitrogen enrichment progressively reduced AM fungal abundance, changed AM fungal community composition, and shifted mycorrhizal functioning towards parasitism at both whole-plant-community and E. nutans scales. N-induced shifts in AM fungal community composition were tightly linked to soil N availability and/or plant species richness, whereas the shifts in mycorrhizal function were associated with the communities of specific AM fungal lineages. The observed changes in both AM fungal community structure and functioning across an N enrichment gradient highlight that N enrichment of ecosystems that are not P-limited can induce parasitic mycorrhizal functioning and influence plant community structure and ecosystem sustainability. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Experimental investigation on frequency shifting of imperfect adhesively bonded pipe joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haiyam, F. N.; Hilmy, I.; Sulaeman, E.; Firdaus, T.; Adesta, E. Y. T.

2018-01-01

Inspection tests for any manufactured structure are compulsory in order to detect the existence of damage.It is to ensure the product integrity, reliability and to avoid further catastrophic failure. In this research, modal analysis was utilized to detect structural damage as one of the Non Destructive Testing (NDT) methods. Comparing the vibration signal of a healthy structure with a non-healthy signal was performed. A modal analysis of an adhesively bonded pipe joint was investigated with a healthy joint as a reference. The damage joint was engineered by inserting a nylon fiber, which act as an impurity at adhesive region. The impact test using hammer was utilized in this research. Identification of shifting frequency of a free supported and clamped pipe joint was performed.It was found that shifting frequency occurred to the lower side by 5%.

Loss of ecosystem productivity with repeated drought: a multi-year experiment to assess the role of drought legacy effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, M. D.; Knapp, A.; Hoover, D. L.; Avolio, M. L.; Felton, A. J.; Slette, I.; Wilcox, K.

2017-12-01

Climate extremes, such as drought, are increasing in frequency and intensity, and the ecological consequences of these extreme events can be substantial and widespread. Yet, little is known about the factors that determine recovery of ecosystem function post-drought. Such knowledge is particularly important because post-drought recovery periods can be protracted depending on drought legacy effects (e.g., loss key plant populations, altered community structure and/or biogeochemical processes). These drought legacies may alter ecosystem function for many years post-drought and may impact future sensitivity to climate extremes. With forecasts of more frequent drought, there is an imperative to understand whether and how post-drought legacies will affect ecosystem response to future drought events. To address this knowledge gap, we experimentally imposed over an eight year period two extreme growing season droughts, each two years in duration followed by a two-year recovery period, in a central US grassland. We found that aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) declined dramatically with the first drought and was accompanied by a large shift in plant species composition (loss of C3 forb and increase in C4 grasses). This drought legacy - shift in plant composition - persisted two years post-drought. Yet, despite this legacy, ANPP recovered fully. However, we expected that previously-droughted grassland would be less sensitive to a second extreme drought due to the shift in plant composition. Contrary to this expectation, previously droughted grassland experienced a greater loss in ANPP than grassland that had not experienced drought. Furthermore, previously droughted grassland did not fully recover after the second drought. Thus, the legacy of drought - a shift in plant community composition - increased ecosystem sensitivity to a future extreme drought event.

Heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of desertification in spatially explicit data.

PubMed

Seekell, David A; Dakos, Vasilis

2015-06-01

Regime shifts are abrupt transitions between alternate ecosystem states including desertification in arid regions due to drought or overgrazing. Regime shifts may be preceded by statistical anomalies such as increased autocorrelation, indicating declining resilience and warning of an impending shift. Tests for conditional heteroskedasticity, a type of clustered variance, have proven powerful leading indicators for regime shifts in time series data, but an analogous indicator for spatial data has not been evaluated. A spatial analog for conditional heteroskedasticity might be especially useful in arid environments where spatial interactions are critical in structuring ecosystem pattern and process. We tested the efficacy of a test for spatial heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of regime shifts with simulated data from spatially extended vegetation models with regular and scale-free patterning. These models simulate shifts from extensive vegetative cover to bare, desert-like conditions. The magnitude of spatial heteroskedasticity increased consistently as the modeled systems approached a regime shift from vegetated to desert state. Relative spatial autocorrelation, spatial heteroskedasticity increased earlier and more consistently. We conclude that tests for spatial heteroskedasticity can contribute to the growing toolbox of early warning indicators for regime shifts analyzed with spatially explicit data.

Humans in changing shrubland ecosystems

Treesearch

Rosemary L. Pendleton; Stanley G. Kitchen; Andres F. Cibils

2014-01-01

Emerging arid-land research and management approaches are increasingly shaped by the recognition of the fact that humans are an integral part of ecosystems. The thrust to study the coupled natural-human dynamics of such systems1 and the growing awareness of the social-ecological nature of rangeland ecosystems2 are prompting a shift in the way we think about current and...

Threshold effects in the vegetation response to Holocene climate changes in central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Y.

2015-12-01

Understanding the response of ecosystems to past climate is critical for evaluating the impacts of future climate changes. A relatively abrupt vegetation shift in response to the late Holocene gradual climate changes has been well documented for the Sahara-Sahel ecosystem. However, whether such threshold shift is of universal significance remains to be further addressed. Here, we examine the vegetation-climate relationships in central Asia based on four newly recovered Holocene pollen records and a synthesis on previously published pollen data. The results show that the orbital-induced gradual climate trend during the Holocene led to two major abrupt vegetation shifts, and that the timings of these shifts are highly dependent of the local rainfall conditions. Instead, the mid-Holocene vegetation remained rather stable despite of the changing climate. These new findings demonstrate generally significant threshold and truncation effects of climate changes on vegetation, as are strongly supported by surface pollen data and LPJ-GUESS modeling. The results also imply that using pollen data to reconstruct past climate changes is not always straightforward. Our findings have important implication for understanding the potential effects of global warming on dryland ecosystem change.

Is the Climate of Bering Sea Warming and Affecting the Ecosystem?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overland, James E.; Stabeno, Phyllis J.

2004-08-01

Observations from the Bering Sea are good indicators of decadal shifts in climate, as the Bering is a transition region between the cold, dry Arctic air mass to the north, and the moist, relatively warm maritime air mass to the south. The Bering Sea is also a transition region between Arctic and sub-Arctic ecosystems; this boundary can be loosely identified with the extent of winter sea-ice cover. Like a similar transition zone in the eastern North Atlantic, the Bering Sea is experiencing a northward biogeographical shift in response to changing temperature and atmospheric forcing. If this shift continues over the next decade, it will have major impacts on commercial and subsistence harvests as Arctic species are displaced by sub-Arctic species. The stakes are enormous, as this rich and diverse ecosystem currently provides 47% of the U.S. fishery production by weight, and is home to 80% of the U.S. sea bird population, 95% of northern fur seals, and major populations of Steller sea lions, walrus, and whales.

Climate regulates alpine lake ice cover phenology and aquatic ecosystem structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Preston, Daniel L.; Caine, Nel; McKnight, Diane M.; Williams, Mark W.; Hell, Katherina; Miller, Matthew P.; Hart, Sarah J.; Johnson, Pieter T.J.

2016-01-01

High-elevation aquatic ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change, yet relatively few records are available to characterize shifts in ecosystem structure or their underlying mechanisms. Using a long-term dataset on seven alpine lakes (3126 to 3620 m) in Colorado, USA, we show that ice-off dates have shifted seven days earlier over the past 33 years and that spring weather conditions – especially snowfall – drive yearly variation in ice-off timing. In the most well-studied lake, earlier ice-off associated with increases in water residence times, thermal stratification, ion concentrations, dissolved nitrogen, pH, and chlorophyll-a. Mechanistically, low spring snowfall and warm temperatures reduce summer stream flow (increasing lake residence times) but enhance melting of glacial and permafrost ice (increasing lake solute inputs). The observed links among hydrological, chemical, and biological responses to climate factors highlight the potential for major shifts in the functioning of alpine lakes due to forecasted climate change.

Diet shifts and population dynamics of estuarine foraminifera during ecosystem recovery after experimentally induced hypoxia crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brouwer, G. M.; Duijnstee, I. A. P.; Hazeleger, J. H.; Rossi, F.; Lourens, L. J.; Middelburg, J. J.; Wolthers, M.

2016-03-01

This study shows foraminiferal dynamics after experimentally induced hypoxia within the wider context of ecosystem recovery. 13C-labeled bicarbonate and glucose were added to the sediments to examine foraminiferal diet shifts during ecosystem recovery and test-size measurements were used to deduce population dynamics. Hypoxia-treated and undisturbed patches were compared to distinguish natural (seasonal) fluctuations from hypoxia-induced responses. The effect of timing of disturbance and duration of recovery were investigated. The foraminiferal diets and population dynamics showed higher fluctuations in the recovering patches compared to the controls. The foraminiferal diet and population structure of Haynesina germanica and Ammonia beccarii responded differentially and generally inversely to progressive stages of ecosystem recovery. Tracer inferred diet estimates in April and June and the two distinctly visible cohorts in the test-size distribution, discussed to reflect reproduction in June, strongly suggest that the ample availability of diatoms during the first month of ecosystem recovery after the winter hypoxia was likely profitable to A. beccarii. Enhanced reproduction itself was strongly linked to the subsequent dietary shift to bacteria. The distribution of the test dimensions of H. germanica indicated that this species had less fluctuation in population structure during ecosystem recovery but possibly reproduced in response to the induced winter hypoxia. Bacteria seemed to consistently contribute more to the diet of H. germanica than diatoms. For the diet and test-size distribution of both species, the timing of disturbance seemed to have a higher impact than the duration of the subsequent recovery period.

Regime Shifts in Shallow Lakes: Responses of Cyanobacterial Blooms to Watershed Agricultural Phosphorus Loading Over the Last ~100 Years.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermaire, J. C.; Taranu, Z. E.; MacDonald, G. K.; Velghe, K.; Bennett, E.; Gregory-Eaves, I.

2015-12-01

Rapid changes in ecosystem states have occurred naturally throughout Earth's history. However, environmental changes that have taken place since the start of the Anthropocene may be destabilizing ecosystems and increasing the frequency of regime shifts in response to abrupt changes in external drivers or local intrinsic dynamics. To evaluate the relative influence of these forcers and improve our understanding of the impact of future change, we examined the effects of historical catchment phosphorus loading associated with agricultural land use on lake ecosystems, and whether this caused a shift from a stable, clear-water, regime to a turbid, cyanobacteria-dominated, state. The sedimentary pigments, diatom, and zooplankton (Cladocera) records from a currently clear-water shallow lake (Roxton Pond) and a turbid-water shallow lake (Petit lac Saint-François; PSF) were examined to determine if a cyanobacteria associated pigment (i.e. echinenone) showed an abrupt non-linear response to continued historical phosphorus load index (determined by phosphorus budget) over the last ~100 years. While PSF lake is presently in the turbid-water state, pigment and diatom analyses indicated that both lakes were once in the clear-water state, and that non-linear increases in catchment phosphorus balance resulted in an abrupt transition to cyanobacteria dominated states in each record. These results show that phosphorus loading has resulted in state shifts in shallow lake ecosystems that has been recorded across multiple paleolimnological indicators preserved in the sedimentary record.

Used planet: a global history.

PubMed

Ellis, Erle C; Kaplan, Jed O; Fuller, Dorian Q; Vavrus, Steve; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Verburg, Peter H

2013-05-14

Human use of land has transformed ecosystem pattern and process across most of the terrestrial biosphere, a global change often described as historically recent and potentially catastrophic for both humanity and the biosphere. Interdisciplinary paleoecological, archaeological, and historical studies challenge this view, indicating that land use has been extensive and sustained for millennia in some regions and that recent trends may represent as much a recovery as an acceleration. Here we synthesize recent scientific evidence and theory on the emergence, history, and future of land use as a process transforming the Earth System and use this to explain why relatively small human populations likely caused widespread and profound ecological changes more than 3,000 y ago, whereas the largest and wealthiest human populations in history are using less arable land per person every decade. Contrasting two spatially explicit global reconstructions of land-use history shows that reconstructions incorporating adaptive changes in land-use systems over time, including land-use intensification, offer a more spatially detailed and plausible assessment of our planet's history, with a biosphere and perhaps even climate long ago affected by humans. Although land-use processes are now shifting rapidly from historical patterns in both type and scale, integrative global land-use models that incorporate dynamic adaptations in human-environment relationships help to advance our understanding of both past and future land-use changes, including their sustainability and potential global effects.

Used planet: A global history

PubMed Central

Ellis, Erle C.; Kaplan, Jed O.; Fuller, Dorian Q.; Vavrus, Steve; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Verburg, Peter H.

2013-01-01

Human use of land has transformed ecosystem pattern and process across most of the terrestrial biosphere, a global change often described as historically recent and potentially catastrophic for both humanity and the biosphere. Interdisciplinary paleoecological, archaeological, and historical studies challenge this view, indicating that land use has been extensive and sustained for millennia in some regions and that recent trends may represent as much a recovery as an acceleration. Here we synthesize recent scientific evidence and theory on the emergence, history, and future of land use as a process transforming the Earth System and use this to explain why relatively small human populations likely caused widespread and profound ecological changes more than 3,000 y ago, whereas the largest and wealthiest human populations in history are using less arable land per person every decade. Contrasting two spatially explicit global reconstructions of land-use history shows that reconstructions incorporating adaptive changes in land-use systems over time, including land-use intensification, offer a more spatially detailed and plausible assessment of our planet's history, with a biosphere and perhaps even climate long ago affected by humans. Although land-use processes are now shifting rapidly from historical patterns in both type and scale, integrative global land-use models that incorporate dynamic adaptations in human–environment relationships help to advance our understanding of both past and future land-use changes, including their sustainability and potential global effects. PMID:23630271

[Financial protection in health: updates for Mexico to 2014].

PubMed

Knaul, Felicia Marie; Arreola-Ornelas, Héctor; Méndez-Carniado, Oscar

2016-06-01

Objetive: Document financial protection in health in Mexico up to 2014. We up date the measures of impoverishing and catastrophic health expenditure to 2014, to analyse shifts since the implementation of the System for Social Protection in Health and the Seguro Popular using time series data from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey. Between 2004 and 2014 there has been a continued improvement in levels of financial protection. Excessive expenditure reached its lowest point: -2.0% in 2012 and 2.1% in 2014. Impoverishing expenditure dropped to 1.3% in 2004, compared to 0.5% in 2014, and catastrophic expenditures from 2.7% to 2.1%. The time series of data on financial protection show a clear pattern of improvement between 2000 and 2014 and level off and low levels in 2012 and 2014. Still, levels continue to be relatively high for households in the poorest quintile, in rural areas and with an elderly person.

Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jucker Riva, Matteo; Schwilch, Gudrun; Liniger, Hanspeter

2015-04-01

Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users' knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio-ecological systems and to foster adaptive dryland management.

The interactive effects of press/pulse intensity and duration on regime shifts at multiple scales

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Regime shifts are difficult-to-reverse transitions that occur when an ecosystem reorganizes around a new set of self-reinforcing feedbacks. Regime shifts are predicted to occur when the intensity of some exogenous driver variable, such as temperature, annual harvest rate, or nutrient addition rate, ...

The role of mosses in ecosystem succession and function in Alaska's boreal forest

Treesearch

Merritt R. Turetsky; Michelle C. Mack; Teresa N. Hollingsworth; Jennifer W. Harden

2010-01-01

Shifts in moss communities may affect the resilience of boreal ecosystems to a changing climate because of the role of moss species in regulating soil climate and biogeochemical cycling. Here, we use long-term data analysis and literature synthesis to examine the role of moss in ecosystem succession, productivity, and decomposition. In Alaskan forests, moss abundance...

Ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Climate Change Response Framework Project in northern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Louis Iverson; Linda Parker; David Mladenoff; Leslie Brandt; Patricia Butler; Matt St. Pierre; Anantha Prasad; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Dale Higgins; Avery Dorland

2011-01-01

The forests of northern Wisconsin will likely experience dramatic changes over the next 100 years as a result of climate change. This assessment evaluates key forest ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change across northern Wisconsin under a range of future climate scenarios. Warmer temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are expected to influence ecosystem...

Tropical ecosystems into the 21st century.

Treesearch

K. S. Bawa; W. J. Kress; N. M. Nadkarni; S. Raven P. H. Lele; D. H. Janzen; A. E. Lugo; P. S. Ashton; T. E. Lovejoy

2004-01-01

WE ENDORSE THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF America’s (ESA) call to shift its primary focus from the study of undisturbed ecosystems to interdisciplinary studies of humaninfluenced ecosystems for the betterment of human societies (1, 2). At the 2004 annual meeting of the Association for Tropical Biology and Conservation (ATBC) in Miami, Florida, we released a report (“Beyond...

CO2 and fire influence tropical ecosystem stability in response to climate change.

PubMed

Shanahan, Timothy M; Hughen, Konrad A; McKay, Nicholas P; Overpeck, Jonathan T; Scholz, Christopher A; Gosling, William D; Miller, Charlotte S; Peck, John A; King, John W; Heil, Clifford W

2016-07-18

Interactions between climate, fire and CO2 are believed to play a crucial role in controlling the distributions of tropical woodlands and savannas, but our understanding of these processes is limited by the paucity of data from undisturbed tropical ecosystems. Here we use a 28,000-year integrated record of vegetation, climate and fire from West Africa to examine the role of these interactions on tropical ecosystem stability. We find that increased aridity between 28-15 kyr B.P. led to the widespread expansion of tropical grasslands, but that frequent fires and low CO2 played a crucial role in stabilizing these ecosystems, even as humidity changed. This resulted in an unstable ecosystem state, which transitioned abruptly from grassland to woodlands as gradual changes in CO2 and fire shifted the balance in favor of woody plants. Since then, high atmospheric CO2 has stabilized tropical forests by promoting woody plant growth, despite increased aridity. Our results indicate that the interactions between climate, CO2 and fire can make tropical ecosystems more resilient to change, but that these systems are dynamically unstable and potentially susceptible to abrupt shifts between woodland and grassland dominated states in the future.

CO2 and fire influence tropical ecosystem stability in response to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanahan, Timothy M.; Hughen, Konrad A.; McKay, Nicholas P.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Scholz, Christopher A.; Gosling, William D.; Miller, Charlotte S.; Peck, John A.; King, John W.; Heil, Clifford W.

2016-07-01

Interactions between climate, fire and CO2 are believed to play a crucial role in controlling the distributions of tropical woodlands and savannas, but our understanding of these processes is limited by the paucity of data from undisturbed tropical ecosystems. Here we use a 28,000-year integrated record of vegetation, climate and fire from West Africa to examine the role of these interactions on tropical ecosystem stability. We find that increased aridity between 28-15 kyr B.P. led to the widespread expansion of tropical grasslands, but that frequent fires and low CO2 played a crucial role in stabilizing these ecosystems, even as humidity changed. This resulted in an unstable ecosystem state, which transitioned abruptly from grassland to woodlands as gradual changes in CO2 and fire shifted the balance in favor of woody plants. Since then, high atmospheric CO2 has stabilized tropical forests by promoting woody plant growth, despite increased aridity. Our results indicate that the interactions between climate, CO2 and fire can make tropical ecosystems more resilient to change, but that these systems are dynamically unstable and potentially susceptible to abrupt shifts between woodland and grassland dominated states in the future.

Shifting trends of temperature and biodiversity in the Eastern Bering Sea

EPA Science Inventory

Global climate change is becoming an increasingly important ecological driver for oceanic and near-coastal ecosystems, potentially impacting both economically important fisheries stocks and ecosystem structure and function. In particular, Arctic systems are predicted to be espec...

Emerging technological and cultural shifts advancing drylands research and management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Sustainable provisioning of ecosystem services in dryland landscapes is complicated by extreme conditions that constrain biological responses to perturbation, vast spatial and temporal complexity, and uncertainty regarding the resilience of these ecosystems to management practices and climate change...

Turning back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it

PubMed Central

Biggs, Reinette; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Brock, William A.

2009-01-01

Ecological regime shifts are large, abrupt, long-lasting changes in ecosystems that often have considerable impacts on human economies and societies. Avoiding unintentional regime shifts is widely regarded as desirable, but prediction of ecological regime shifts is notoriously difficult. Recent research indicates that changes in ecological time series (e.g., increased variability and autocorrelation) could potentially serve as early warning indicators of impending shifts. A critical question, however, is whether such indicators provide sufficient warning to adapt management to avert regime shifts. We examine this question using a fisheries model, with regime shifts driven by angling (amenable to rapid reduction) or shoreline development (only gradual restoration is possible). The model represents key features of a broad class of ecological regime shifts. We find that if drivers can only be manipulated gradually management action is needed substantially before a regime shift to avert it; if drivers can be rapidly altered aversive action may be delayed until a shift is underway. Large increases in the indicators only occur once a regime shift is initiated, often too late for management to avert a shift. To improve usefulness in averting regime shifts, we suggest that research focus on defining critical indicator levels rather than detecting change in the indicators. Ideally, critical indicator levels should be related to switches in ecosystem attractors; we present a new spectral density ratio indicator to this end. Averting ecological regime shifts is also dependent on developing policy processes that enable society to respond more rapidly to information about impending regime shifts. PMID:19124774

Historical analysis of riparian vegetation change in response to shifting management objectives on the Middle Rio Grande

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petrakis, Roy; van Leeuwen, Willem J.D.; Villarreal, Miguel; Tashjian, Paul; Dello Russo, Regina; Scott, Christopher A.

2017-01-01

Riparian ecosystems are valuable to the ecological and human communities that depend on them. Over the past century, they have been subject to shifting management practices to maximize human use and ecosystem services, creating a complex relationship between water policy, management, and the natural ecosystem. This has necessitated research on the spatial and temporal dynamics of riparian vegetation change. The San Acacia Reach of the Middle Rio Grande has experienced multiple management and river flow fluctuations, resulting in threats to its riparian and aquatic ecosystems. This research uses remote sensing data, GIS, a review of management decisions, and an assessment of climate to both quantify how riparian vegetation has been altered over time and provide interpretations of the relationships between riparian change and shifting climate and management objectives. This research focused on four management phases from 1935 to 2014, each highlighting different management practices and climate-driven river patterns, providing unique opportunities to observe a direct relationship between river management, climate, and riparian response. Overall, we believe that management practices coupled with reduced surface river-flows with limited overbank flooding influenced the compositional and spatial patterns of vegetation, including possibly increasing non-native vegetation coverage. However, recent restoration efforts have begun to reduce non-native vegetation coverage.

Ecological shift and resilience in China's lake systems during the last two centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ke; Dong, Xuhui; Yang, Xiangdong; Kattel, Giri; Zhao, Yanjie; Wang, Rong

2018-06-01

The worldwide decline of wetland ecosystems calls for an urgent reassessment of their current status from a resilience perspective. Understanding the trajectories of changes that have produced the current situation is fundamental for assessing system resilience. Here, we examine long-term dynamics of wetland ecosystem change by reviewing paleoecological records from 11 representative lakes in China. We identify unprecedented change in alga communities in the context of last two centuries. Striking ecological shifts have occurred in all lakes, yet with spatial and temporal differences. The long-term trajectories of change in diatom species composition and structure indicate gradually eroded system resilience. These ecological shifts were shaped by socio-economic activities as China transformed from a rural agricultural to an industrialized society within the last several decades, during which multiple drivers have accumulated and acted synergistically. The balance between ecosystem and society, which appeared to exist for thousands of years, was broken by increasing population, new technology, and urbanization since the 1980s. The consequences are the emergence of new positive feedbacks with the potential to drive the coupled systems into undesirable states. By linking long-term social and ecological change at a regional scale, our study provides a novel contribution to the understanding of lake ecosystems resilience in present-day China. We argue that sustaining wetland ecosystems requires integrated approaches that incorporate a deeper understanding of social-ecological dynamics over decadal-centennial timescales to address the complex underlying mechanisms leading to the current degradation.

Extreme temperatures, foundation species, and abrupt ecosystem change: an example from an iconic seagrass ecosystem.

PubMed

Thomson, Jordan A; Burkholder, Derek A; Heithaus, Michael R; Fourqurean, James W; Fraser, Matthew W; Statton, John; Kendrick, Gary A

2015-04-01

Extreme climatic events can trigger abrupt and often lasting change in ecosystems via the reduction or elimination of foundation (i.e., habitat-forming) species. However, while the frequency/intensity of extreme events is predicted to increase under climate change, the impact of these events on many foundation species and the ecosystems they support remains poorly understood. Here, we use the iconic seagrass meadows of Shark Bay, Western Australia--a relatively pristine subtropical embayment whose dominant, canopy-forming seagrass, Amphibolis antarctica, is a temperate species growing near its low-latitude range limit--as a model system to investigate the impacts of extreme temperatures on ecosystems supported by thermally sensitive foundation species in a changing climate. Following an unprecedented marine heat wave in late summer 2010/11, A. antarctica experienced catastrophic (>90%) dieback in several regions of Shark Bay. Animal-borne video footage taken from the perspective of resident, seagrass-associated megafauna (sea turtles) revealed severe habitat degradation after the event compared with a decade earlier. This reduction in habitat quality corresponded with a decline in the health status of largely herbivorous green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the 2 years following the heat wave, providing evidence of long-term, community-level impacts of the event. Based on these findings, and similar examples from diverse ecosystems, we argue that a generalized framework for assessing the vulnerability of ecosystems to abrupt change associated with the loss of foundation species is needed to accurately predict ecosystem trajectories in a changing climate. This includes seagrass meadows, which have received relatively little attention in this context. Novel research and monitoring methods, such as the analysis of habitat and environmental data from animal-borne video and data-logging systems, can make an important contribution to this framework. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Changing Weather Extremes Call for Early Warning of Potential for Catastrophic Fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boer, Matthias M.; Nolan, Rachael H.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Clarke, Hamish; Price, Owen F.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2017-12-01

Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a nonflammable (i.e., wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e., dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America, and Australia rate potential fire behavior by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.

Climate-Driven Range Extension of Amphistegina (Protista, Foraminiferida): Models of Current and Predicted Future Ranges

PubMed Central

Langer, Martin R.; Weinmann, Anna E.; Lötters, Stefan; Bernhard, Joan M.; Rödder, Dennis

2013-01-01

Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year−1, and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change. PMID:23405081

Climate-driven range extension of Amphistegina (protista, foraminiferida): models of current and predicted future ranges.

PubMed

Langer, Martin R; Weinmann, Anna E; Lötters, Stefan; Bernhard, Joan M; Rödder, Dennis

2013-01-01

Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year(-1), and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change.

Interannual Variations in Ecosystem Oxidative Ratio in Croplands, Deciduous Forest, Coniferous Forest, and Early Successional Forest Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masiello, C. A.; Hockaday, W. C.; Gallagher, M. E.; Calligan, L.

2009-12-01

Ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP) can vary significantly with annual variations in precipitation and temperature. These climate variations can also drive changes in plant carbon allocation patterns. Shifting allocation patterns can lead to variation in net ecosystem biochemical stocks (e.g. kg cellulose, lignin, protein, and lipid/ha), which can in turn lead to shifts in ecosystem oxidative ratio (OR). OR is the molar ratio of O2 released : CO2 fixed during biosynthesis. Major plant biochemicals vary substantially in oxidative ratio, ranging from average organic acid OR values of 0.75 to average lipid OR values of 1.37 (Masiello et al., 2008). OR is a basic property of ecosystem biochemistry, and is also an essential variable needed to constrain the size of the terrestrial biospheric carbon sink (Keeling et al., 1996). OR is commonly assumed to be 1.10 (e.g. Prentice et al., 2001), but small variations in net ecosystem OR can drive large errors in estimates of the size of the terrestrial carbon sink (Randerson et al., 2006). We hypothesized that interannual changes in climate may drive interannual variation in ecosystem OR values. Working at Kellogg Biological Station NSF LTER, we measured the annual average OR of coniferous and deciduous forests, an early successional forest, and croplands under both corn and soy. There are clear distinctions between individual ecosystems (e.g., the soy crops have a higher OR than the corn crops, and the coniferous forests have a higher OR than the deciduous forests), but the ecosystems themselves retained remarkably constant annual OR values between 1998 and 2008.

Regime shifts in desert grasslands: patterns, mechanisms, and management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Transitions from semiarid grassland to shrubland states are among the most widely recognized examples of regime shifts in terrestrial ecosystems. Nonetheless, the processes causing grassland-shrubland transitions, and their consequences, are incompletely understood. We challenge several misconceptio...

Peak season carbon exchange shifts from a sink to a source following 50+ years of herbivore exclusion in an Arctic tundra ecosystem

DOE PAGES

Lara, Mark J.; Johnson, David R.; Andresen, Christian; ...

2016-08-27

To date, the majority of our knowledge regarding the impacts of herbivory on arctic ecosystem function has been restricted to short-term (<5 years) exclusion or manipulation experiments. Here, our understanding of long-term responses of sustained herbivory and/or herbivore exclusion on arctic tundra ecosystem function is severely limited.

Integrating regeneration, genetic resistance, and timing of intervention for the long-term sustainability of ecosystems challenged by non-native pests - a novel proactive approach

Treesearch

A. W Schoettle; J. G. Klutsch; R. A. Sniezko

2012-01-01

Global trade increases the likelihood of introduction of non-native, invasive species which can threaten native species and their associated ecosystems. This has led to significant impacts to forested landscapes, including extensive tree mortality, shifts in ecosystem composition, and vulnerabilities to other stresses. With the increased appreciation of the importance...

Adaptation approaches for conserving ecosystems services and biodiversity in dynamic landscapes caused by climate change

Treesearch

Oswald J. Schmitz; Anne M. Trainor

2014-01-01

Climate change stands to cause animal species to shift their geographic ranges. This will cause ecosystems to become reorganized across landscapes as species migrate into and out of specific locations with attendant impacts on values and services that ecosystems provide to humans. Conservation in an era of climate change needs to ensure that landscapes are resilient by...

Peak season carbon exchange shifts from a sink to a source following 50+ years of herbivore exclusion in an Arctic tundra ecosystem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lara, Mark J.; Johnson, David R.; Andresen, Christian

To date, the majority of our knowledge regarding the impacts of herbivory on arctic ecosystem function has been restricted to short-term (<5 years) exclusion or manipulation experiments. Here, our understanding of long-term responses of sustained herbivory and/or herbivore exclusion on arctic tundra ecosystem function is severely limited.

Shifts in plant functional types have time-dependent and regionally variable impacts on dryland ecosystem water balance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradford, John B.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Lauenroth, William K.; Burke, Ingrid C.

2014-01-01

5. Synthesis. This study provides a novel, regional-scale assessment of how plant functional type transitions may impact ecosystem water balance in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems of North America. Results illustrate that the ecohydrological consequences of changing vegetation depend strongly on climate and suggest that decreasing woody plant abundance may have only limited impact on evapotranspiration and water yield.

Recent Responses of Western North American Forests and Hydroclimate to Pacific Storm Track Position and Intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dannenberg, M. P.; Wise, E.

2017-12-01

Much of the precipitation delivered to western North America arrives during the October to March cool season via midlatitude Pacific storm tracks, which may shift in the future due to climate change. Using historical climate, tree-ring, and remote sensing data, we assessed the sensitivity of western North American hydroclimate and ecosystems to the position and intensity of cool-season Pacific storm tracks. From 1980-2014, mean annual cool-season storm tracks entered western North America between approximately 41°N to 53°N, with substantial interannual variability in both the position and intensity of the storm tracks. We examined relationships between storm tracks and two hydroclimatic variables: the cool-season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index and April snow water equivalent. We also assessed how historical storm track variability affected ecosystems using forest growth estimates from a large tree-ring network as well as land surface phenology and wildfire estimates from AVHRR and Landsat, respectively. Cool-season moisture supply and snowpack responded strongly to storm track position, with positive correlations to storm track latitude in eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada but negative correlations in the northwestern U.S. These hydroclimatic impacts were largely driven by the latitudinal position of storm tracks during the "shoulder" seasons (i.e., autumn and early spring). Ecosystems of the western U.S. tended to be greener and more productive following winters with south-shifted storm tracks, while Canadian ecosystems were greener in years when the cool-season storm track was shifted to the north. On average, larger areas of the northwestern U.S. were burned by moderate to high severity wildfires when storm tracks were displaced north, and the average burn area per fire also tended to be higher in years with north-shifted storm tracks. Assuming that these historical relationships continue to hold under future climate scenarios, our results suggest that projected long-term shifts of Pacific storm tracks over the 21st century would likely alter hydroclimatic and ecological regimes in western North America, particularly in the northwestern U.S., where moisture supply and ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to the position of cool-season storm tracks.

Microbial Mat Compositional and Functional Sensitivity to Environmental Disturbance

PubMed Central

Preisner, Eva C.; Fichot, Erin B.; Norman, Robert S.

2016-01-01

The ability of ecosystems to adapt to environmental perturbations depends on the duration and intensity of change and the overall biological diversity of the system. While studies have indicated that rare microbial taxa may provide a biological reservoir that supports long-term ecosystem stability, how this dynamic population is influenced by environmental parameters remains unclear. In this study, a microbial mat ecosystem located on San Salvador Island, The Bahamas was used as a model to examine how environmental disturbance affects the protein synthesis potential (PSP) of rare and abundant archaeal and bacterial communities and how these changes impact potential biogeochemical processes. This ecosystem experienced a large shift in salinity (230 to 65 g kg-1) during 2011–2012 following the landfall of Hurricane Irene on San Salvador Island. High throughput sequencing and analysis of 16S rRNA and rRNA genes from samples before and after the pulse disturbance showed significant changes in the diversity and PSP of abundant and rare taxa, suggesting overall compositional and functional sensitivity to environmental change. In both archaeal and bacterial communities, while the majority of taxa showed low PSP across conditions, the overall community PSP increased post-disturbance, with significant shifts occurring among abundant and rare taxa across and within phyla. Broadly, following the post-disturbance reduction in salinity, taxa within Halobacteria decreased while those within Crenarchaeota, Thaumarchaeota, Thermoplasmata, Cyanobacteria, and Proteobacteria, increased in abundance and PSP. Quantitative PCR of genes and transcripts involved in nitrogen and sulfur cycling showed concomitant shifts in biogeochemical cycling potential. Post-disturbance conditions increased the expression of genes involved in N-fixation, nitrification, denitrification, and sulfate reduction. Together, our findings show complex community adaptation to environmental change and help elucidate factors connecting disturbance, biodiversity, and ecosystem function that may enhance ecosystem models. PMID:27799927

Translocation of Endangered Laysan Ducks to Midway Atoll National Wildlife Refuge (2004-5)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Michelle

2005-01-01

BACKGROUND Island ecosystems throughout the Pacific have undergone catastrophic species loss, largely due to the effects of alien or non-native species. Rats, in particular, pose significant threats to native species. In Hawai`i, the appearance of rats (which are not native to Hawai`i) in the subfossil record coincides with the disappearance of ground nesting birds. Sadly, only three of Hawai`i?s 10 endemic waterfowl species still exist today. The Laysan Duck (Anas laysanensis), also known as the Laysan Teal, is a critically endangered dabbling duck that is restricted to a single population on the remote and rat-free Laysan Island (Fig. 1). The Laysan Duck was listed as an endangered species in 1966 because of its small population, limited distribution, and dependence on a fragile island ecosystem. The same threats identified in 1966 continue to plague the species today.

Testing for thresholds of ecosystem collapse in seagrass meadows.

PubMed

Connell, Sean D; Fernandes, Milena; Burnell, Owen W; Doubleday, Zoë A; Griffin, Kingsley J; Irving, Andrew D; Leung, Jonathan Y S; Owen, Samuel; Russell, Bayden D; Falkenberg, Laura J

2017-10-01

Although the public desire for healthy environments is clear-cut, the science and management of ecosystem health has not been as simple. Ecological systems can be dynamic and can shift abruptly from one ecosystem state to another. Such unpredictable shifts result when ecological thresholds are crossed; that is, small cumulative increases in an environmental stressor drive a much greater change than could be predicted from linear effects, suggesting an unforeseen tipping point is crossed. In coastal waters, broad-scale seagrass loss often occurs as a sudden event associated with human-driven nutrient enrichment (eutrophication). We tested whether the response of seagrass ecosystems to coastal nutrient enrichment is subject to a threshold effect. We exposed seagrass plots to different levels of nutrient enrichment (dissolved inorganic nitrogen) for 10 months and measured net production. Seagrass response exhibited a threshold pattern when nutrient enrichment exceeded moderate levels: there was an abrupt and large shift from positive to negative net leaf production (from approximately 0.04 leaf production to 0.02 leaf loss per day). Epiphyte load also increased as nutrient enrichment increased, which may have driven the shift in leaf production. Inadvertently crossing such thresholds, as can occur through ineffective management of land-derived inputs such as wastewater and stormwater runoff along urbanized coasts, may account for the widely observed sudden loss of seagrass meadows. Identification of tipping points may improve not only adaptive-management monitoring that seeks to avoid threshold effects, but also restoration approaches in systems that have crossed them. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

A Conceptual Framework to Address Stress-Associated ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Chronic stress leads to a variety of mental and physiological disorders, and stress effects are the primary concern after traumatic injury and exposure to infectious diseases or toxic agents from disaster events. We developed a conceptual model to address the question of whether degradation of ecosystem services (ES) by disasters such as recent hurricanes and the Deepwater Horizon oil catastrophe produce acute and chronic stress that ultimately result in short- and long-term negative health outcomes in people. An interdisciplinary team with expertise in data mining, ecology, ecosystem services, ecotoxicology, landscape ecology, mental health, psychiatry, and stress physiology utilized the Driver-Pressure-State-Ecosystem Service model of Kelble et al. (2013), the mental health framework of Palinkas (2012) and McEwen’s (1993) allostatic load model of chronic stress as starting points. Initial modeling results were augmented via expert workshops and peer review. Our conceptual model connects effects of disasters to changes in specific ecosystem components (e.g., water quality, biodiversity, fishery populations) with resulting degradation of multiple ES such as commercial and recreational fishing, tourism, and sense of place. The model shows how the degraded ES produce acute and chronic stress in people and how such stress may lead to a variety of negative mental, physical and behavioral health outcomes. Using this framework, one can trace potential for str

Detection of photosynthetic responses of cool-temperate forests following extreme climate events using Bayesian inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toda, M.; Knohl, A.; Herbst, M.; Keenan, T. F.; Yokozawa, M.

2016-12-01

The increase in extreme climate events associated with ongoing global warming may create severe damage to terrestrial ecosystems, changing plant structure and the eco-physiological functions that regulate ecosystem carbon exchange. However, most damage is usually due to moderate, rather than catastrophic, disturbances. The nature of plant functional responses to such disturbances, and the resulting effects on the terrestrial carbon cycle, remain poorly understood. To unravel the scientific question, tower-based eddy covariance data in the cool-temperate forests were used to constrain plant eco-physiological parameters in a persimoneous ecosystem model that may have affected carbon dynamics following extreme climate events using the statistic Bayesian inversion approach. In the present study, we raised two types of extreme events relevant for cool-temperate regions, i.e. a typhoon with mechanistic foliage destraction and a heat wave with severe drought. With appropriate evaluation of parameter and predictive uncertainties, the inversion analysis shows annual trajectory of activated photosynthetic responses following climate extremes compared the pre-disturbance state in each forest. We address that forests with moderate disturbance show substantial and rapid photosynthetic recovery, enhanced productivity, and, thus, ecosystem carbon exchange, although the effect of extreme climatic events varies depending on the stand successional phase and the type, intensity, timing and legacy of the disturbance.

BULGARIA’S MULTI-VECTOR FOREIGN POLICY APPROACH TO SECURITY CHALLENGES IN EASTERN EUROPE

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-04-06

withdraw from the South Stream natural gas pipeline project which could turn Bulgaria into a leading gas hub in the Balkans. Amid Ukrainian Crisis, the EU...Corporation. Micco, Pasquale De. July 2015. Changing Pipelines , Shifting Strategies: Gas in South-eastern Europe, and the Implications for Ukraine. In...catastrophe. In support of this strategic approach, this paper finds a theoretical explanation in the realist school of study and presents an analysis of the

Black-legged kittiwakes as messengers of Atlantification in the Arctic.

PubMed

Vihtakari, Mikko; Welcker, Jorg; Moe, Børge; Chastel, Olivier; Tartu, Sabrina; Hop, Haakon; Bech, Claus; Descamps, Sébastien; Gabrielsen, Geir Wing

2018-01-19

Climate warming is rapidly altering marine ecosystems towards a more temperate state on the European side of the Arctic. However, this "Atlantification" has rarely been confirmed, as long-term datasets on Arctic marine organisms are scarce. We present a 19-year time series (1982-2016) of diet samples from black-legged kittiwakes as an indicator of the changes in a high Arctic marine ecosystem (Kongsfjorden, Svalbard). Our results highlight a shift from Arctic prey dominance until 2006 to a more mixed diet with high contribution of Atlantic fishes. Capelin, an Atlantic species, dominated the diet composition in 2007, marking a shift in the food web. The occurrence of polar cod, a key Arctic fish species, positively correlated with sea ice index, whereas Atlantic species demonstrated the opposite correlation indicating that the diet shift was likely connected with recent climate warming. Kittiwakes, which gather available fish and zooplankton near the sea surface to feed their chicks, can act as messengers of ecosystem change. Changes in their diet reveal that the Kongsfjord system has drifted in an Atlantic direction over the last decade.

Decadal warming causes a consistent and persistent shift from heterotrophic to autotrophic respiration in contrasting permafrost ecosystems.

PubMed

Hicks Pries, Caitlin E; van Logtestijn, Richard S P; Schuur, Edward A G; Natali, Susan M; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Aerts, Rien; Dorrepaal, Ellen

2015-12-01

Soil carbon in permafrost ecosystems has the potential to become a major positive feedback to climate change if permafrost thaw increases heterotrophic decomposition. However, warming can also stimulate autotrophic production leading to increased ecosystem carbon storage-a negative climate change feedback. Few studies partitioning ecosystem respiration examine decadal warming effects or compare responses among ecosystems. Here, we first examined how 11 years of warming during different seasons affected autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration in a bryophyte-dominated peatland in Abisko, Sweden. We used natural abundance radiocarbon to partition ecosystem respiration into autotrophic respiration, associated with production, and heterotrophic decomposition. Summertime warming decreased the age of carbon respired by the ecosystem due to increased proportional contributions from autotrophic and young soil respiration and decreased proportional contributions from old soil. Summertime warming's large effect was due to not only warmer air temperatures during the growing season, but also to warmer deep soils year-round. Second, we compared ecosystem respiration responses between two contrasting ecosystems, the Abisko peatland and a tussock-dominated tundra in Healy, Alaska. Each ecosystem had two different timescales of warming (<5 years and over a decade). Despite the Abisko peatland having greater ecosystem respiration and larger contributions from heterotrophic respiration than the Healy tundra, both systems responded consistently to short- and long-term warming with increased respiration, increased autotrophic contributions to ecosystem respiration, and increased ratios of autotrophic to heterotrophic respiration. We did not detect an increase in old soil carbon losses with warming at either site. If increased autotrophic respiration is balanced by increased primary production, as is the case in the Healy tundra, warming will not cause these ecosystems to become growing season carbon sources. Warming instead causes a persistent shift from heterotrophic to more autotrophic control of the growing season carbon cycle in these carbon-rich permafrost ecosystems. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Mediterranean Sea regime shift at the end of the 1980s, and intriguing parallelisms with other European basins.

PubMed

Conversi, Alessandra; Fonda Umani, Serena; Peluso, Tiziana; Molinero, Juan Carlos; Santojanni, Alberto; Edwards, Martin

2010-05-19

Regime shifts are abrupt changes encompassing a multitude of physical properties and ecosystem variables, which lead to new regime conditions. Recent investigations focus on the changes in ecosystem diversity and functioning associated to such shifts. Of particular interest, because of the implication on climate drivers, are shifts that occur synchronously in separated basins. In this work we analyze and review long-term records of Mediterranean ecological and hydro-climate variables and find that all point to a synchronous change in the late 1980s. A quantitative synthesis of the literature (including observed oceanic data, models and satellite analyses) shows that these years mark a major change in Mediterranean hydrographic properties, surface circulation, and deep water convection (the Eastern Mediterranean Transient). We provide novel analyses that link local, regional and basin scale hydrological properties with two major indicators of large scale climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Northern Hemisphere Temperature index, suggesting that the Mediterranean shift is part of a large scale change in the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a simplified scheme of the different effects of climate vs. temperature on pelagic ecosystems. Our results show that the Mediterranean Sea underwent a major change at the end of the 1980s that encompassed atmospheric, hydrological, and ecological systems, for which it can be considered a regime shift. We further provide evidence that the local hydrography is linked to the larger scale, northern hemisphere climate. These results suggest that the shifts that affected the North, Baltic, Black and Mediterranean (this work) Seas at the end of the 1980s, that have been so far only partly associated, are likely linked as part a northern hemisphere change. These findings bear wide implications for the development of climate change scenarios, as synchronous shifts may provide the key for distinguishing local (i.e., basin) anthropogenic drivers, such as eutrophication or fishing, from larger scale (hemispheric) climate drivers.

Rainfall changes affect the algae dominance in tank bromeliad ecosystems.

PubMed

Pires, Aliny Patricia Flauzino; Leal, Juliana da Silva; Peeters, Edwin T H M

2017-01-01

Climate change and biodiversity loss have been reported as major disturbances in the biosphere which can trigger changes in the structure and functioning of natural ecosystems. Nonetheless, empirical studies demonstrating how both factors interact to affect shifts in aquatic ecosystems are still unexplored. Here, we experimentally test how changes in rainfall distribution and litter diversity affect the occurrence of the algae-dominated condition in tank bromeliad ecosystems. Tank bromeliads are miniature aquatic ecosystems shaped by the rainwater and allochthonous detritus accumulated in the bases of their leaves. Here, we demonstrated that changes in the rainfall distribution were able to reduce the chlorophyll-a concentration in the water of bromeliad tanks affecting significantly the occurrence of algae-dominated conditions. On the other hand, litter diversity did not affect the algae dominance irrespective to the rainfall scenario. We suggest that rainfall changes may compromise important self-reinforcing mechanisms responsible for maintaining high levels of algae on tank bromeliads ecosystems. We summarized these results into a theoretical model which suggests that tank bromeliads may show two different regimes, determined by the bromeliad ability in taking up nutrients from the water and by the total amount of light entering the tank. We concluded that predicted climate changes might promote regime shifts in tropical aquatic ecosystems by shaping their structure and the relative importance of other regulating factors.

Exceeding peatland ecohydrological resilience through compound disturbance: the effect of wildfire and drainage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waddington, J. M.; Kettridge, N.; Sherwood, J.; Thompson, D.; Morris, P. J.

2012-12-01

Peatlands are self-regulating ecosystems dominated by negative ecohydrological feedbacks that stabilize their net carbon sink function, producing a globally significant carbon store that is often resilient to disturbances such as drainage and wildfire. However, the effects of these disturbances on peatland ecohydrological function have only been considered previously in isolation. We capitalize on a unique long-term experiment to examine the response of a peatland in boreal western Canada to the compound disturbance of drying and wildfire. We show that the compound effect of such disturbances can reduce the ecohydrological resilience of these ecosystems leaving them vulnerable to irreversible shifts in their ecological, hydrological and biogeochemical function. Peatland ecosystems have a hydrology characterized generally by a long water residence times and a high water table position. Less-dense near-surface peat acts as a hydrological buffer, regulating water-table position and near-surface moisture content. This buffer is lost through combustion and compaction, increasing the flashiness of the peatland hydrology, increasing the vulnerability of the ecosystem to drought conditions. This greatly reduces the recolonization success of keystone Sphagnum moss species. As a result the peatland followed a previously unobserved development trajectory leading to the loss of globally important ecosystem services and the development of a novel 'peat forest' ecosystem. This ecosystem shift is self-reinforcing, as the establishment of invasive species reduces available light essential for Sphagnum establishment.

Rainfall changes affect the algae dominance in tank bromeliad ecosystems

PubMed Central

Pires, Aliny Patricia Flauzino; Leal, Juliana da Silva; Peeters, Edwin T. H. M.

2017-01-01

Climate change and biodiversity loss have been reported as major disturbances in the biosphere which can trigger changes in the structure and functioning of natural ecosystems. Nonetheless, empirical studies demonstrating how both factors interact to affect shifts in aquatic ecosystems are still unexplored. Here, we experimentally test how changes in rainfall distribution and litter diversity affect the occurrence of the algae-dominated condition in tank bromeliad ecosystems. Tank bromeliads are miniature aquatic ecosystems shaped by the rainwater and allochthonous detritus accumulated in the bases of their leaves. Here, we demonstrated that changes in the rainfall distribution were able to reduce the chlorophyll-a concentration in the water of bromeliad tanks affecting significantly the occurrence of algae-dominated conditions. On the other hand, litter diversity did not affect the algae dominance irrespective to the rainfall scenario. We suggest that rainfall changes may compromise important self-reinforcing mechanisms responsible for maintaining high levels of algae on tank bromeliads ecosystems. We summarized these results into a theoretical model which suggests that tank bromeliads may show two different regimes, determined by the bromeliad ability in taking up nutrients from the water and by the total amount of light entering the tank. We concluded that predicted climate changes might promote regime shifts in tropical aquatic ecosystems by shaping their structure and the relative importance of other regulating factors. PMID:28422988

Simulated sensitivity of African terrestrial ecosystem photosynthesis to rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Kaiyu; Good, Stephen P.; Caylor, Kelly K.; Medvigy, David; Pan, Ming; Wood, Eric F.; Sato, Hisashi; Biasutti, Michela; Chen, Min; Ahlström, Anders; Xu, Xiangtao

2018-02-01

There is growing evidence of ongoing changes in the statistics of intra-seasonal rainfall variability over large parts of the world. Changes in annual total rainfall may arise from shifts, either singly or in a combination, of distinctive intra-seasonal characteristics -i.e. rainfall frequency, rainfall intensity, and rainfall seasonality. Understanding how various ecosystems respond to the changes in intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics is critical for predictions of future biome shifts and ecosystem services under climate change, especially for arid and semi-arid ecosystems. Here, we use an advanced dynamic vegetation model (SEIB-DGVM) coupled with a stochastic rainfall/weather simulator to answer the following question: how does the productivity of ecosystems respond to a given percentage change in the total seasonal rainfall that is realized by varying only one of the three rainfall characteristics (rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length)? We conducted ensemble simulations for continental Africa for a realistic range of changes (-20% ~ +20%) in total rainfall amount. We find that the simulated ecosystem productivity (measured by gross primary production, GPP) shows distinctive responses to the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics. Specifically, increase in rainfall frequency can lead to 28% more GPP increase than the same percentage increase in rainfall intensity; in tropical woodlands, GPP sensitivity to changes in rainy season length is ~4 times larger than to the same percentage changes in rainfall frequency or intensity. In contrast, shifts in the simulated biome distribution are much less sensitive to intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics than they are to total rainfall amount. Our results reveal three major distinctive productivity responses to seasonal rainfall variability—‘chronic water stress’, ‘acute water stress’ and ‘minimum water stress’ - which are respectively associated with three broad spatial patterns of African ecosystem physiognomy, i.e. savannas, woodlands, and tropical forests.

Spatiotemporal analysis of the effect of climate change on vegetation health in the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa.

PubMed

Mukwada, Geoffrey; Manatsa, Desmond

2018-05-24

The impact of climate change on mountain ecosystems has been in the spotlight for the past three decades. Climate change is generally considered to be a threat to ecosystem health in mountain regions. Vegetation indices can be used to detect shifts in ecosystem phenology and climate change in mountain regions while satellite imagery can play an important role in this process. However, what has remained problematic is determining the extent to which ecosystem phenology is affected by climate change under increasingly warming conditions. In this paper, we use climate and vegetation indices that were derived from satellite data to investigate the link between ecosystem phenology and climate change in the Namahadi Catchment Area of the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa. The time series for climate indices as well as those for gridded precipitation and temperature data were analyzed in order to determine climate shifts, and concomitant changes in vegetation health were assessed in the resultant epochs using vegetation indices. The results indicate that vegetation indices should only be used to assess trends in climate change under relatively pristine conditions, where human influence is limited. This knowledge is important for designing climate change monitoring strategies that are based on ecosystem phenology and vegetation health.

Oldest Evidence of Toolmaking Hominins in a Grassland-Dominated Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Plummer, Thomas W.; Ditchfield, Peter W.; Bishop, Laura C.; Kingston, John D.; Ferraro, Joseph V.; Braun, David R.; Hertel, Fritz; Potts, Richard

2009-01-01

Background Major biological and cultural innovations in late Pliocene hominin evolution are frequently linked to the spread or fluctuating presence of C4 grass in African ecosystems. Whereas the deep sea record of global climatic change provides indirect evidence for an increase in C4 vegetation with a shift towards a cooler, drier and more variable global climatic regime beginning approximately 3 million years ago (Ma), evidence for grassland-dominated ecosystems in continental Africa and hominin activities within such ecosystems have been lacking. Methodology/Principal Findings We report stable isotopic analyses of pedogenic carbonates and ungulate enamel, as well as faunal data from ∼2.0 Ma archeological occurrences at Kanjera South, Kenya. These document repeated hominin activities within a grassland-dominated ecosystem. Conclusions/Significance These data demonstrate what hitherto had been speculated based on indirect evidence: that grassland-dominated ecosystems did in fact exist during the Plio-Pleistocene, and that early Homo was active in open settings. Comparison with other Oldowan occurrences indicates that by 2.0 Ma hominins, almost certainly of the genus Homo, used a broad spectrum of habitats in East Africa, from open grassland to riparian forest. This strongly contrasts with the habitat usage of Australopithecus, and may signal an important shift in hominin landscape usage. PMID:19844568

New hypothesis helps explain elasmobranch "outburst" on Georges Bank in the 1980s.

PubMed

Frisk, M G; Miller, T J; Martell, S J D; Sosebee, K

2008-01-01

Regime shifts are a feature of many ecosystems. During the last 40 years, intensive commercial exploitation and environmental changes have driven substantial shifts in ecosystem structure and function in the northwest Atlantic. In the Georges Bank-southern New England region, commercially important species have declined, and the ecosystem shifted to one dominated by economically undesirable species such as skates and dogfish. Aggregated abundance indices indicate a large increase of small and medium-sized elasmobranchs in the early 1980s following the decline of many commercial species. It has been hypothesized that ecological interactions such as competition and predation within the Georges Bank region were responsible for and are maintaining the "elasmobranch outburst" at the heart of the observed ecosystem shift. We offer an alternative hypothesis invoking population connectivity among winter skate populations such that the observed abundance increase is a result of migratory dynamics, perhaps with the Scotian Shelf (i.e., it is an open population). Here we critically evaluate the survey data for winter skate, the species principally responsible for the increase in total skate abundance during the 1980s on Georges Bank, to assess support for both hypotheses. We show that time series from different surveys within the Georges Bank region exhibit low coherence, indicating that a widespread population increase was not consistently shown by all surveys. Further, we argue that observed length-frequency data for Georges Bank indicate biologically unrealistic population fluctuations if the population is closed. Neither finding supports the elasmobranch outburst hypothesis. In contrast, survey time series for Georges Bank and the Scotian Shelf are negatively correlated, in support of the population connectivity hypothesis. Further, we argue that understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem state changes and population connectivity are needed to make inferences about both the causes and appropriate management responses to large-scale system change.

Restoring Diversity after Cattail Expansion: Disturbance, Resilience, and Seasonality in a Tropical Dry Wetland.

EPA Science Inventory

As the human footprint expands, ecologists and resource managers are increasingly challenged to explain and/or manage abrupt ecosystem transformations (i.e., regime shifts) that have produced novel ecosystems. In this study, we investigate the role of a mechanical disturbance tha...

Distinct zooplankton regime shift patterns across ecoregions of the U.S. Northeast continental shelf Large Marine Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morse, R. E.; Friedland, K. D.; Tommasi, D.; Stock, C.; Nye, J.

2017-01-01

We investigated regime shifts in seasonal zooplankton communities of the Northeast continental shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NES) and its subcomponent ecoregions over a multi-decadal period (1977-2013). Our cross ecoregion analysis shows that regime shifts in different ecoregions often exhibited very distinct characteristics, emphasizing more granular fluctuations in NES plankton communities relative to previous work. Shifts early in the time series generally reflected an increase in abundance levels. The response of zooplankton abundance within fall communities was more similar among ecoregions than for spring communities. The Gulf of Maine exhibited highly distinct patterns from other ecoregions, with regime shifts identified in the early 1980s, early 2000s, and mid-2000s for spring communities. Regime shifts were identified in the early to mid-1990s for the NES, Georges Bank, and the Mid-Atlantic Bight ecoregions, while the fall communities experienced shifts in the early 1990s and late 1980s for the NES and Georges Bank, but in the late 1990s in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. A constrained correspondence analysis of zooplankton community against local and basin-scale climatological indices suggests that water temperature, stratification, and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) were the predominant factors in driving the zooplankton community composition.

Assessing trait-based scaling theory in tropical and temperate forests spanning a broad temperature gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enquist, B. J.

2017-12-01

Tropical and temperate elevation gradients are natural laboratories to assess how changing climate can influence tropical forests. However, there is a need for theory and integrated data collection to scale from traits to ecosystems. We assess predictions of a novel trait-based metabolic scaling theory including whether observed shifts in forest traits across a broad tropical temperature gradient is consistent with local phenotypic optima and adaptive compensation for temperature. We tested a new anaytical theory - Trait Driver Theory - that is capable of scaling from traits to entire stands and ecosystems across several elevation gradients spanning 3300m. Each gradient consists of thousands of tropical and temperate tree trait measures taken from forest plots. In several of these plots, in particular in southern Perú, gross and net primary productivity (GPP and NPP) were measured. We measured multiple traits linked to variation in tree growth and assessed their frequency distributions within and across the elevation gradient. We paired these trait measures across individuals within forests with simultaneous measures of ecosystem net and gross primary productivity. Consistent with theory, variation in forest NPP and GPP primarily scaled with forest biomass but the secondary effect of temperature on productivity was much less than expected. This weak temperature dependency appears to reflect directional shifts in several mean community traits that underlie tree growth with decreases in site temperature. The observed shift in traits of trees that dominant more cold environments appear to reflect `adaptive/acclimatory' compensation for the kinetic effects of temperature on leaf photosynthesis and tree growth. Forest trait distributions across the gradient showed peaked and skewed distributions, consistent with the importance of local filtering of optimal growth traits and recent shifts in species composition and dominance due to warming from climate change. Trait-based metabolic scaling theory provides a basis to predict how shifts in climate have and will influence the trait composition and ecosystem functioning of temperate and tropical forests.

Regional processes in mangrove ecosystems: Spatial scaling relationships, biomass, and turnover rates following catastrophic disturbance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, G.A.; Smith, T. J.; Whelan, K.R.T.; Doyle, T.W.

2006-01-01

Physiological processes and local-scale structural dynamics of mangroves are relatively well studied. Regional-scale processes, however, are not as well understood. Here we provide long-term data on trends in structure and forest turnover at a large scale, following hurricane damage in mangrove ecosystems of South Florida, U.S.A. Twelve mangrove vegetation plots were monitored at periodic intervals, between October 1992 and March 2005. Mangrove forests of this region are defined by a -1.5 scaling relationship between mean stem diameter and stem density, mirroring self-thinning theory for mono-specific stands. This relationship is reflected in tree size frequency scaling exponents which, through time, have exhibited trends toward a community average that is indicative of full spatial resource utilization. These trends, together with an asymptotic standing biomass accumulation, indicate that coastal mangrove ecosystems do adhere to size-structured organizing principles as described for upland tree communities. Regenerative dynamics are different between areas inside and outside of the primary wind-path of Hurricane Andrew which occurred in 1992. Forest dynamic turnover rates, however, are steady through time. This suggests that ecological, more-so than structural factors, control forest productivity. In agreement, the relative mean rate of biomass growth exhibits an inverse relationship with the seasonal range of porewater salinities. The ecosystem average in forest scaling relationships may provide a useful investigative tool of mangrove community biomass relationships, as well as offer a robust indicator of general ecosystem health for use in mangrove forest ecosystem management and restoration. ?? Springer 2006.

Ecosystem oceanography for global change in fisheries.

PubMed

Cury, Philippe Maurice; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Planque, Benjamin; Durant, Joël Marcel; Fromentin, Jean-Marc; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Travers, Morgane; Grimm, Volker

2008-06-01

Overexploitation and climate change are increasingly causing unanticipated changes in marine ecosystems, such as higher variability in fish recruitment and shifts in species dominance. An ecosystem-based approach to fisheries attempts to address these effects by integrating populations, food webs and fish habitats at different scales. Ecosystem models represent indispensable tools to achieve this objective. However, a balanced research strategy is needed to avoid overly complex models. Ecosystem oceanography represents such a balanced strategy that relates ecosystem components and their interactions to climate change and exploitation. It aims at developing realistic and robust models at different levels of organisation and addressing specific questions in a global change context while systematically exploring the ever-increasing amount of biological and environmental data.

Ecosystem goods and services from Swedish coastal habitats: identification, valuation, and implications of ecosystem shifts.

PubMed

Rönnbäck, Patrik; Kautsky, Nils; Pihl, Leif; Troell, Max; Söderqvist, Tore; Wennhage, Håkan

2007-11-01

Coastal areas are exposed to a variety of threats due to high population densities and rapid economic development. How will this affect human welfare and our dependence on nature's capacity to provide ecosystem goods and services? This paper is original in evaluating this concern for major habitats (macroalgae, seagrasses, blue mussel beds, and unvegetated soft bottoms) in a temperate coastal setting. More than 40 categories of goods and services are classified into provisional, regulating, and cultural services. A wide variety of Swedish examples is described for each category, including accounts of economic values and the relative importance of different habitats. For example, distinguishing characteristics would be the exceptional importance of blue mussels for mitigation of eutrophication, sandy soft bottoms for recreational uses, and seagrasses and macroalgae for fisheries production and control of wave and current energy. Net changes in the provision of goods and services are evaluated for three cases of observed coastal ecosystem shifts: i) seagrass beds into unvegetated substrate; ii) unvegetated shallow soft bottoms into filamentous algal mat dominance; and iii) macroalgae into mussel beds on hard substrate. The results are discussed in a management context including accounts of biodiversity, interconnectedness of ecosystems, and potential of economic valuation.

Climate change, wine, and conservation.

PubMed

Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V; Shaw, M Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A; Hijmans, Robert J

2013-04-23

Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects.

Defining functional biomes and monitoring their change globally.

PubMed

Higgins, Steven I; Buitenwerf, Robert; Moncrieff, Glenn R

2016-11-01

Biomes are important constructs for organizing understanding of how the worlds' major terrestrial ecosystems differ from one another and for monitoring change in these ecosystems. Yet existing biome classification schemes have been criticized for being overly subjective and for explicitly or implicitly invoking climate. We propose a new biome map and classification scheme that uses information on (i) an index of vegetation productivity, (ii) whether the minimum of vegetation activity is in the driest or coldest part of the year, and (iii) vegetation height. Although biomes produced on the basis of this classification show a strong spatial coherence, they show little congruence with existing biome classification schemes. Our biome map provides an alternative classification scheme for comparing the biogeochemical rates of terrestrial ecosystems. We use this new biome classification scheme to analyse the patterns of biome change observed over recent decades. Overall, 13% to 14% of analysed pixels shifted in biome state over the 30-year study period. A wide range of biome transitions were observed. For example, biomes with tall vegetation and minimum vegetation activity in the cold season shifted to higher productivity biome states. Biomes with short vegetation and low seasonality shifted to seasonally moisture-limited biome states. Our findings and method provide a new source of data for rigorously monitoring global vegetation change, analysing drivers of vegetation change and for benchmarking models of terrestrial ecosystem function. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change, wine, and conservation

PubMed Central

Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V.; Shaw, M. Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A.; Hijmans, Robert J.

2013-01-01

Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects. PMID:23569231

Thresholds and gradients in a semi-arid grassland: long-term grazing treatments induce slow, continuous, and reversible vegetation change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Semiarid ecosystems can exhibit non-reversible shifts among alternative stable ecosystem states (thresholds and hysteresis), but can also be characterized by slow, continuous, and reversible changes in plant composition (successional gradients). Conceptual state-and-transition models (STMs) attempt ...

Ecosystem Restoration: Fact or Fancy?

Treesearch

John A. Stanturf; Callie J. Schweitzer; Stephen H. Schoenholtz; James P. Barnett; Charles K. McMahon; Donald J. Tomszak

1998-01-01

Ecological restoration is generally accepted as the reestablishment of natural ecological processes that produce certain dynamic ecosystem properties of structure, function, and processes. But restore to what? The most frequently used conceptual model for the restoration process is the shift of conditions from some current (degraded) dynamic state to some past dynamic...

Forest operations for ecosystem management

Treesearch

Robert B. Rummer; John Baumgras; Joe McNeel

1997-01-01

The evolution of modern forest resource management is focusing on ecologically sensitive forest operations. This shift in management strategies is producing a new set of functional requirements for forest operations. Systems to implement ecosystem management prescriptions may need to be economically viable over a wider range of piece sizes, for example. Increasing...

Influence of natural and novel organic carbon sources on denitrification in forest, degraded urban, and restored streams

EPA Science Inventory

Organic carbon is important in regulating ecosystem function, and its source and abundance may be altered by urbanization. We investigated shifts in organic carbon quantity and quality associated with urbanization and ecosystem restoration, and its potential effects on denitrific...

Where Do We Go From Here?

Treesearch

Martin L. Blaney; Scott Simon; James M. Guldin; Tom Riley; Donny Harris; Rebecca McPeake

2004-01-01

The structure and diversity of the upland oak ecosystem has changed significantly, primarily caused by fire suppression and historic forestry practices, leaving the ecosystem vulnerable to outbreaks of pathogens and insects. These conditions, coupled with periods of drought, have caused significant oak mortality throughout the Interior Highland region shifting the...

Hamiltonian dynamics for complex food webs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozlov, Vladimir; Vakulenko, Sergey; Wennergren, Uno

2016-03-01

We investigate stability and dynamics of large ecological networks by introducing classical methods of dynamical system theory from physics, including Hamiltonian and averaging methods. Our analysis exploits the topological structure of the network, namely the existence of strongly connected nodes (hubs) in the networks. We reveal new relations between topology, interaction structure, and network dynamics. We describe mechanisms of catastrophic phenomena leading to sharp changes of dynamics and hence completely altering the ecosystem. We also show how these phenomena depend on the structure of interaction between species. We can conclude that a Hamiltonian structure of biological interactions leads to stability and large biodiversity.

Robust catastrophe-free space agriculture on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamashita, Masamichi

During the early stage of CELSS research, economy was a selling point of the bio-regenerative life support concept. Until system integration was exercised in detail at mission planing for the International Space Station, the turning point from open system to CELSS was estimated 10 years of operation for 10 crew member as a consensus. Initial investment and operational cost for the 10-10 regenerative system was believed to be cheaper than the integrated amount of consumables for running open system. Any drop-out from recycling loop of materials is counted as “penalty”. Under this context, degree of closure was raised as an index to measure “maturity” of CELSS technology. Once it was found quite difficult to achieve 100 % closure perfect, science merit of CELSS study was redefined as a small scaled model of terrestrial biosphere. Natural ecosystem has huge sink and backyard in its materials loop. They provide a basis for keeping member in the ecology without falling into catastrophe. Low productivity at high biological diversity is a common key feature at the climax phase of ecosystem. Artificial ecosystem on ground relies on “unpaid” backyard function of surrounding biosphere together with strong control for realizing high productivity at less degree of bio-diversity. It should be noted that top criteria in engineering manned space system is robustness and survivability of crew. All other item is secondary, and just better to have. Without verification of catastrophe free, space agriculture will never be implemented for space and stay as a fantasy on ground forever. There is a great gap between ecology and this requirement for manned space system. In order to fill this gap, we should remind how gatherer and hunter was civilized after the agricultural revolution about ten thousand years ago. Planting cereal crop was a great second step in agricultural innovation. Cereal grain can be stored more than one year after its harvest. Food processing and preservation technology has been quite developed in modern age. After resource is accumulated enough to support the next term, go-decision for the succeeding mission is made. Life can be sustained by stock of food and oxygen produced during previous term. Terrestrial agriculture these days is not only for food production, but improves amenity for life. Psychological support for space crew is a keen issue at conducting long space mission under physically isolated confined environment. Farming plants and animals is an effective relief under such stressful environment. By utilizing on site resource available on Mars, space agriculture is an essential choice with more than 100 % materials recycling and total life management in space exploration. Among many merits, 100 % survivability is the top priority.

Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spanbauer, Trisha; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.; Eason, Tarsha; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Nash, Kirsty L.; Stone, Jeffery R.; Stow, Craig A.; Sundstrom, Shana M.

2016-01-01

Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana, USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts.

Paying for power. A look at the costs associated with power-operated vehicles.

PubMed

Clifton, David W

2004-11-01

POVs may be the most appropriate choice for persons who are at risk of catastrophic injury, disability, or death should they be placed in a compromised position relative to their medical conditions. There is no panacea for successfully securing Medicare reimbursement particularly in light of coverage variations between DMERCs/intermediaries and the shifting sands of coverage policy. However, the guidelines outlined here may assist therapists who wish to serve as patient advocates in establishing the medical necessity of RT prescriptions.

Placing ecosystem sustainability within the context of dynamic earth systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidle, R. C.

2013-12-01

Because the concept of ecosystem sustainability and the practice of sustainable land management both have long-term foci, it is necessary to view these from the perspective of dynamic rather than static systems. In addition to the typical static system approach for assessing ecosystem sustainability, three additional perspectives are presented. These are resilient systems, systems where tipping points occur, and systems subject to episodic geophysical resetting. Ecosystem resilience accommodates both natural and anthropogenic stressors and should be considered to properly frame many ecosystem assessments. A more complex problem emerges when stressors push systems to tipping points, causing a regime shift. Both chronic anthropogenic activities (e.g., over-grazing, forest conversion, poor irrigation practices) and natural changes (e.g., climate anomalies, geochemical weathering, tectonic uplift, vegetative succession) can exhaust ecosystem resilience leading to a rapid change in state. Anthropogenic perturbations can also lower the initiation threshold and increase the magnitude and frequency of certain natural disasters, increasing the likelihood of ecosystem change. Furthermore, when major episodic geophysical events (e.g., large earthquakes, tsunami, and floods; widespread volcanic activity and landslides) exceed thresholds of ecosystem resilience they may reset the attributes of entire systems or landscapes. Large disasters can initiate a cascade of linked events, as in the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, where tsunami, fires, landslides, artificial fillslope collapses, radioactive releases, and associated health effects occurred. Understanding the potential for natural change (both chronic and episodic) in ecosystems is essential not only to the environmental aspect of sustainability but also to economic and social aspects. Examples are presented for: (1) ecosystems vulnerable to tipping points (Yunnan, China) and (2) ecosystems reset by earthquakes and tsunami (Papua New Guinea and eastern Japan). While these geophysical perturbations and shifts in ecosystems are individually recognized, they are not fully embraced by contemporary sustainability thinking or decision management.

Cross-scale interactions drive ecosystem responses to precipitation in the Chihuahuan Desert

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Regime shifts from grass- to shrub-dominated states are widespread in arid and semiarid regions globally. These patterns of grass production and shifts to shrub dominance are spatially variable and correlate weakly with precipitation, suggesting that processes at different spatial and temporal scale...

Fire Severity and Soil Carbon Combustion in Boreal and Tundra Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, X. J.; Mack, M. C.; Baltzer, J. L.; Cummings, S.; Day, N.; Goetz, S.; Johnstone, J. F.; Rogers, B. M.; Turetsky, M. R.

2016-12-01

Climate warming in northern latitudes has led to an intensification of wildfire disturbance. Increased fire frequency, extent, and severity is expected to strongly impact the structure and function of northern ecosystems. In this study, we examined 50 sites in a recently burned tundra ecosystem of Alaska, USA and 250 sites in recently burned boreal conifer forest ecosystems of Northwest Territories, Canada. The majority of organic carbon (C) in both boreal and tundra ecosystems resides in the soil organic layer (SOL) and combustion of this layer can lead to large C emissions. Through examining multiple fire scars in different regions, ranging in moisture, elevation, and pre-fire vegetation communities, we can determine the ecosystem, landscape, and regional controls on SOL combustion and the potential shift in C storage. In this research, we use scalable SOL consumption metrics to estimate depth of burn and the associated C emissions. Preliminary results from boreal conifer sites indicate that nearly 50% of the pre-fire soil C pool was combusted and that over 75% of the total C emitted from the extreme fire year of 2014 can be attributed to combustion of the SOL. Increased combustion of SOL associated with an intensifying fire regime could shift boreal and tundra ecosystems across a C cycle threshold: from net accumulation of C from the atmosphere over multiple fire cycles, to a net loss. Understanding changes in SOL combustion and C storage is essential for assessing the consequences of an altered fire regime on permafrost dynamics, vegetation regeneration, and the initiation of successional trajectories in tundra and boreal ecosystems.

Diatoms to human uses: linking nitrogen deposition, aquatic eutrophication, and ecosystem services

DOE PAGES

Rhodes, Charles; Bingham, Andrew; Heard, Andrea M.; ...

2017-07-24

Nitrogen (N) loading to aquatic ecosystems can lead to eutrophication, changing the ecosystem within a waterbody, including primary productivity, water clarity, and food web dynamics. Nutrient loading often first affects the primary productivity of aquatic systems through shifts in phytoplankton communities. However, ecologically important changes in phytoplankton are often not relatable to the general public—whose behavior would need to change to alter patterns of nutrient loading. Therefore, we use the STressor–Ecological Production function–final ecosystem Services Framework to develop 154 chains that link changes in biological indicators of aquatic eutrophication (a shift in phytoplankton community) to final ecosystem services that peoplemore » use or appreciate. We identify 13 ecological production functions (EPF) within three different ecosystems (alpine lakes, lakes, and estuaries) that connect changes in phytoplankton and algae to ecological endpoints that the general public and policy makers can appreciate. Using the Final Ecosystem Goods and Services Classification System, we identify 18 classes of human beneficiaries that potentially will be impacted by a change in one of these endpoints. We further assign strength-of-science scores to each link within the EPFs for the 154 chains according to how well each link is supported by current peer-reviewed literature. By identifying many pathways through which excess N loading in U.S. surface waters can affect ecosystems and ultimately the beneficiaries of ecosystem services, this work intends to draw attention to gaps in empirical ecological literature that constrain understanding of the magnitude of effects that excess N loading can have on human well-being. Here, results highlight the importance of intersections between the natural and social sciences when managers and policy makers evaluate impacts from ecological stressors. A balance between knowledgeable specialists proved key to applying this approach and will continue to remain important.« less

Resilience, rapid transitions and regime shifts: fingerprinting the responses of Lake Żabińskie (NE Poland) to climate variability and human disturbance since 1000 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tylmann, Wojciech; Hernández-Almeida, Iván; Grosjean, Martin; José Gómez Navarro, Juan; Larocque-Tobler, Isabelle; Bonk, Alicja; Enters, Dirk; Ustrzycka, Alicja; Piotrowska, Natalia; Przybylak, Rajmund; Wacnik, Agnieszka; Witak, Małgorzata

2016-04-01

Rapid ecosystem transitions and adverse effects on ecosystem services as responses to combined climate and human impacts are of major concern. Yet few quantitative observational data exist, particularly for ecosystems that have a long history of human intervention. Here, we combine quantitative summer and winter climate reconstructions, climate model simulations and proxies for three major environmental pressures (land use, nutrients and erosion) to explore the system dynamics, resilience, and the role of disturbance regimes in varved eutrophic Lake Żabińskie since AD 1000. Comparison between regional and global climate simulations and quantitative climate reconstructions indicate that proxy data capture noticeably natural forced climate variability, while internal variability appears as the dominant source of climate variability in the climate model simulations during most parts of the last millennium. Using different multivariate analyses and change point detection techniques, we identify ecosystem changes through time and shifts between rather stable states and highly variable ones, as expressed by the proxies for land-use, erosion and productivity in the lake. Prior to AD 1600, the lake ecosystem was characterized by a high stability and resilience against considerable observed natural climate variability. In contrast, lake-ecosystem conditions started to fluctuate at high frequency across a broad range of states after AD 1600. The period AD 1748-1868 represents the phase with the strongest human disturbance of the ecosystem. Analyses of the frequency of change points in the multi-proxy dataset suggests that the last 400 years were highly variable and flickering with increasing vulnerability of the ecosystem to the combined effects of climate variability and anthropogenic disturbances. This led to significant rapid ecosystem transformations.

Diatoms to human uses: linking nitrogen deposition, aquatic eutrophication, and ecosystem services

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rhodes, Charles; Bingham, Andrew; Heard, Andrea M.

Nitrogen (N) loading to aquatic ecosystems can lead to eutrophication, changing the ecosystem within a waterbody, including primary productivity, water clarity, and food web dynamics. Nutrient loading often first affects the primary productivity of aquatic systems through shifts in phytoplankton communities. However, ecologically important changes in phytoplankton are often not relatable to the general public—whose behavior would need to change to alter patterns of nutrient loading. Therefore, we use the STressor–Ecological Production function–final ecosystem Services Framework to develop 154 chains that link changes in biological indicators of aquatic eutrophication (a shift in phytoplankton community) to final ecosystem services that peoplemore » use or appreciate. We identify 13 ecological production functions (EPF) within three different ecosystems (alpine lakes, lakes, and estuaries) that connect changes in phytoplankton and algae to ecological endpoints that the general public and policy makers can appreciate. Using the Final Ecosystem Goods and Services Classification System, we identify 18 classes of human beneficiaries that potentially will be impacted by a change in one of these endpoints. We further assign strength-of-science scores to each link within the EPFs for the 154 chains according to how well each link is supported by current peer-reviewed literature. By identifying many pathways through which excess N loading in U.S. surface waters can affect ecosystems and ultimately the beneficiaries of ecosystem services, this work intends to draw attention to gaps in empirical ecological literature that constrain understanding of the magnitude of effects that excess N loading can have on human well-being. Here, results highlight the importance of intersections between the natural and social sciences when managers and policy makers evaluate impacts from ecological stressors. A balance between knowledgeable specialists proved key to applying this approach and will continue to remain important.« less

A bottom-up perspective on ecosystem change in Mesozoic oceans

PubMed Central

Follows, Michael J.

2016-01-01

Mesozoic and Early Cenozoic marine animals across multiple phyla record secular trends in morphology, environmental distribution, and inferred behaviour that are parsimoniously explained in terms of increased selection pressure from durophagous predators. Another systemic change in Mesozoic marine ecosystems, less widely appreciated than the first, may help to explain the observed animal record. Fossils, biomarker molecules, and molecular clocks indicate a major shift in phytoplankton composition, as mixotrophic dinoflagellates, coccolithophorids and, later, diatoms radiated across shelves. Models originally developed to probe the ecology and biogeography of modern phytoplankton enable us to evaluate the ecosystem consequences of these phytoplankton radiations. In particular, our models suggest that the radiation of mixotrophic dinoflagellates and the subsequent diversification of marine diatoms would have accelerated the transfer of primary production upward into larger size classes and higher trophic levels. Thus, phytoplankton evolution provides a mechanism capable of facilitating the observed evolutionary shift in Mesozoic marine animals. PMID:27798303

Floating plant dominance as a stable state

PubMed Central

Scheffer, Marten; Szabó, Sándor; Gragnani, Alessandra; van Nes, Egbert H.; Rinaldi, Sergio; Kautsky, Nils; Norberg, Jon; Roijackers, Rudi M. M.; Franken, Rob J. M.

2003-01-01

Invasion by mats of free-floating plants is among the most important threats to the functioning and biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems ranging from temperate ponds and ditches to tropical lakes. Dark, anoxic conditions under thick floating-plant cover leave little opportunity for animal or plant life, and they can have large negative impacts on fisheries and navigation in tropical lakes. Here, we demonstrate that floating-plant dominance can be a self-stabilizing ecosystem state, which may explain its notorious persistence in many situations. Our results, based on experiments, field data, and models, represent evidence for alternative domains of attraction in ecosystems. An implication of our findings is that nutrient enrichment reduces the resilience of freshwater systems against a shift to floating-plant dominance. On the other hand, our results also suggest that a single drastic harvest of floating plants can induce a permanent shift to an alternative state dominated by rooted, submerged growth forms. PMID:12634429

Nutrient enrichment induces dormancy and decreases diversity of active bacteria in salt marsh sediments

PubMed Central

Kearns, Patrick J.; Angell, John H.; Howard, Evan M.; Deegan, Linda A.; Stanley, Rachel H. R.; Bowen, Jennifer L.

2016-01-01

Microorganisms control key biogeochemical pathways, thus changes in microbial diversity, community structure and activity can affect ecosystem response to environmental drivers. Understanding factors that control the proportion of active microbes in the environment and how they vary when perturbed is critical to anticipating ecosystem response to global change. Increasing supplies of anthropogenic nitrogen to ecosystems globally makes it imperative that we understand how nutrient supply alters active microbial communities. Here we show that nitrogen additions to salt marshes cause a shift in the active microbial community despite no change in the total community. The active community shift causes the proportion of dormant microbial taxa to double, from 45 to 90%, and induces diversity loss in the active portion of the community. Our results suggest that perturbations to salt marshes can drastically alter active microbial communities, however these communities may remain resilient by protecting total diversity through increased dormancy. PMID:27666199

Nutrient enrichment induces dormancy and decreases diversity of active bacteria in salt marsh sediments.

PubMed

Kearns, Patrick J; Angell, John H; Howard, Evan M; Deegan, Linda A; Stanley, Rachel H R; Bowen, Jennifer L

2016-09-26

Microorganisms control key biogeochemical pathways, thus changes in microbial diversity, community structure and activity can affect ecosystem response to environmental drivers. Understanding factors that control the proportion of active microbes in the environment and how they vary when perturbed is critical to anticipating ecosystem response to global change. Increasing supplies of anthropogenic nitrogen to ecosystems globally makes it imperative that we understand how nutrient supply alters active microbial communities. Here we show that nitrogen additions to salt marshes cause a shift in the active microbial community despite no change in the total community. The active community shift causes the proportion of dormant microbial taxa to double, from 45 to 90%, and induces diversity loss in the active portion of the community. Our results suggest that perturbations to salt marshes can drastically alter active microbial communities, however these communities may remain resilient by protecting total diversity through increased dormancy.

The global susceptibility of coastal forage fish to competition by large jellyfish

PubMed Central

Mariani, Patrizio

2016-01-01

Competition between large jellyfish and forage fish for zooplankton prey is both a possible cause of jellyfish increases and a concern for the management of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Identifying principal factors affecting this competition is therefore important for marine management, but the lack of both good quality data and a robust theoretical framework have prevented general global analyses. Here, we present a general mechanistic food web model that considers fundamental differences in feeding modes and predation pressure between fish and jellyfish. The model predicts forage fish dominance at low primary production, and a shift towards jellyfish with increasing productivity, turbidity and fishing. We present an index of global ecosystem susceptibility to shifts in fish–jellyfish dominance that compares well with data on jellyfish distributions and trends. The results are a step towards better understanding the processes that govern jellyfish occurrences globally and highlight the advantage of considering feeding traits in ecosystem models. PMID:28120793

Predator control promotes invasive dominated ecological states.

PubMed

Wallach, Arian D; Johnson, Christopher N; Ritchie, Euan G; O'Neill, Adam J

2010-08-01

Invasive species are regarded as one of the top five drivers of the global extinction crisis. In response, extreme measures have been applied in an attempt to control or eradicate invasives, with little success overall. We tested the idea that state shifts to invasive dominance are symptomatic of losses in ecosystem resilience, due to the suppression of apex predators. This concept was investigated in Australia where the high rate of mammalian extinctions is largely attributed to the destructive influence of invasive species. Intensive pest control is widely applied across the continent, simultaneously eliminating Australia's apex predator, the dingo (Canis lupus dingo). We show that predator management accounts for shifts between two main ecosystem states. Lethal control fractures dingo social structure and leads to bottom-up driven increases in invasive mesopredators and herbivores. Where control is relaxed, dingoes re-establish top-down regulation of ecosystems, allowing for the recovery of biodiversity and productivity.

Nutrient enrichment induces dormancy and decreases diversity of active bacteria in salt marsh sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kearns, Patrick J.; Angell, John H.; Howard, Evan M.; Deegan, Linda A.; Stanley, Rachel H. R.; Bowen, Jennifer L.

2016-09-01

Microorganisms control key biogeochemical pathways, thus changes in microbial diversity, community structure and activity can affect ecosystem response to environmental drivers. Understanding factors that control the proportion of active microbes in the environment and how they vary when perturbed is critical to anticipating ecosystem response to global change. Increasing supplies of anthropogenic nitrogen to ecosystems globally makes it imperative that we understand how nutrient supply alters active microbial communities. Here we show that nitrogen additions to salt marshes cause a shift in the active microbial community despite no change in the total community. The active community shift causes the proportion of dormant microbial taxa to double, from 45 to 90%, and induces diversity loss in the active portion of the community. Our results suggest that perturbations to salt marshes can drastically alter active microbial communities, however these communities may remain resilient by protecting total diversity through increased dormancy.

A bottom-up perspective on ecosystem change in Mesozoic oceans.

PubMed

Knoll, Andrew H; Follows, Michael J

2016-10-26

Mesozoic and Early Cenozoic marine animals across multiple phyla record secular trends in morphology, environmental distribution, and inferred behaviour that are parsimoniously explained in terms of increased selection pressure from durophagous predators. Another systemic change in Mesozoic marine ecosystems, less widely appreciated than the first, may help to explain the observed animal record. Fossils, biomarker molecules, and molecular clocks indicate a major shift in phytoplankton composition, as mixotrophic dinoflagellates, coccolithophorids and, later, diatoms radiated across shelves. Models originally developed to probe the ecology and biogeography of modern phytoplankton enable us to evaluate the ecosystem consequences of these phytoplankton radiations. In particular, our models suggest that the radiation of mixotrophic dinoflagellates and the subsequent diversification of marine diatoms would have accelerated the transfer of primary production upward into larger size classes and higher trophic levels. Thus, phytoplankton evolution provides a mechanism capable of facilitating the observed evolutionary shift in Mesozoic marine animals. © 2016 The Authors.

Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem.

PubMed

Wernberg, Thomas; Bennett, Scott; Babcock, Russell C; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Cure, Katherine; Depczynski, Martial; Dufois, Francois; Fromont, Jane; Fulton, Christopher J; Hovey, Renae K; Harvey, Euan S; Holmes, Thomas H; Kendrick, Gary A; Radford, Ben; Santana-Garcon, Julia; Saunders, Benjamin J; Smale, Dan A; Thomsen, Mads S; Tuckett, Chenae A; Tuya, Fernando; Vanderklift, Mathew A; Wilson, Shaun

2016-07-08

Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Will the balance of power shift among native eastern Pacific estuary ecosystem engineers with the introduced bopyrid isopod parasite orthione griffenis?

EPA Science Inventory

The blue mud shrimp, Upogebia pugettensis, the bay ghost shrimp, Neotrypaea californiensis, and eelgrass, Zostera marina are endemic ecosystem engineers that define the ecological structure and function of estuaries along the Pacific coast of the US as significantly as do marshes...

Evolving Ecosystems in Education: The Nature and Implications of Private Supplementary Tutoring in Hong Kong

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bray, Mark; Kobakhidze, Magda Nutsa

2015-01-01

An established literature draws on ecological concepts to analyze interrelationships within education structures and processes, and the impact of shifting balances. Private supplementary tutoring--relatively new in ecosystems of education around the world--is creating significant changes in relationships, particularly as they concern teachers'…

The carbon balance pivot point of southwestern U.S. semiarid ecosystems: Insights from the 21st century drought

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global-scale studies indicate that semiarid regions strongly regulate the terrestrial carbon sink. However, we lack understanding of how climatic shifts, such as decadal drought, impact carbon sequestration across the wide-range of structural diversity in semiarid ecosystems. Therefore, we used edd...

Climate change's impact on key ecosystem services and the human well-being they support in the US

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change alters the structure and functions of ecological systems and as a result can modify their provision of ecosystem services. Some American communities have already experienced economic hardship due to spatial shifts in fish biomass caused by warming ocean waters. Documented reductions i...

The temporal dimension of regime shifts: How long can ecosystems operate beyond critical thresholds before transitions become irreversible?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods: Ecosystem thresholds are often identified by observing or inducing slow changes in different driver variables and investigating changes in the asymptotic state of the system, such as the response of lakes to nutrient loading or biome responses to climate change. Yet ma...

Trait-based approaches for understanding microbial biodiversity and ecosystem functioning

PubMed Central

Krause, Sascha; Le Roux, Xavier; Niklaus, Pascal A.; Van Bodegom, Peter M.; Lennon, Jay T.; Bertilsson, Stefan; Grossart, Hans-Peter; Philippot, Laurent; Bodelier, Paul L. E.

2014-01-01

In ecology, biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) research has seen a shift in perspective from taxonomy to function in the last two decades, with successful application of trait-based approaches. This shift offers opportunities for a deeper mechanistic understanding of the role of biodiversity in maintaining multiple ecosystem processes and services. In this paper, we highlight studies that have focused on BEF of microbial communities with an emphasis on integrating trait-based approaches to microbial ecology. In doing so, we explore some of the inherent challenges and opportunities of understanding BEF using microbial systems. For example, microbial biologists characterize communities using gene phylogenies that are often unable to resolve functional traits. Additionally, experimental designs of existing microbial BEF studies are often inadequate to unravel BEF relationships. We argue that combining eco-physiological studies with contemporary molecular tools in a trait-based framework can reinforce our ability to link microbial diversity to ecosystem processes. We conclude that such trait-based approaches are a promising framework to increase the understanding of microbial BEF relationships and thus generating systematic principles in microbial ecology and more generally ecology. PMID:24904563

The effects of catastrophic ecosystem disturbance: the residual mammals at Mount St. Helens

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andersen, Douglas C.; MacMahon, James A.

1985-01-01

Individuals that survive the direct effects of community- or ecosystem-level disturbances, i.e., "residuals", can have major roles in determining the rate and pathway of subsequent secondary succession. The explosive eruption of the Mount St. Helens volcano on 19 May 1980 resulted in severe damage to a cast array of animal and plant populations (Edwards and Schwartz, 1981; MacMahon, 1982; Hayward et al., 1982). We apply the term "catastrophic" to this event because of its intensity and the large area (>600 km2) over which successional processes were initiated. We present here the results of surveys for mammals, particularly small mammals (excluding bats), conducted in the Mount St. Helens region during the 40 months following the eruption. Our purpose was to elucidate any patterns in species representation that might exist along a gradient of disturbance "intensity", and thus document which species could potentially influence early plant successional patterns there. We infer whether individuals captured were more likely to have been residuals (or their descendants), or immigrants from areas less affected by the eruption, from consideration of the time span between the eruption and the capture date, the trapping location, and life history data. We also make inferences concerning the animal-environment relationships that led to our survey results, and thereby address the question of the likelihood of other types of disturbance, either natural or anthropogenic, producing similar results. Data concerning survival of Thomomys talpoides, the northern pocket gopher, have been presented elsewhere (Andersen, 1982). Initial results from our studies of the relationships among residual small mammals and plant population dynamics are detailed in MacMahon and Warner (1984), Allen et al. (1984) and Andersen and MacMahon (in press).

Experimental effects of grazers on autotrophic species assemblages across a nitrate gradient in Florida springs

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Springs face accelerated degradation of ecosystem structure, namely in the form of autotrophic species assemblage shifts from submerged vascular macrophytes to benthic filamentous algae. Increasing nitrate concentrations have been cited as a primary driver of this shift and numeric nutrient criteria...

The influence of hydrologic connectivity on ecosystem metabolism and nitrate uptake in an active beaver meadow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegener, P.; Covino, T. P.; Wohl, E.; Kampf, S. K.; Lacy, S.

2015-12-01

Wetlands have been widely demonstrated to provide important watershed services, such as the sequestration of carbon (C) and removal of nitrate (NO3-) from through-flowing water. Hydrologic connectivity (degree of water and associated material exchange) between floodplain water bodies (e.g., side channels, ponds) and the main channel influence rates of C accumulation and NO3- uptake, and the degree to which wetlands contribute to enhanced water quality at the catchment scale. However, environmental engineers have largely ignored the role of hydrologic connectivity in providing essential ecosystem services, and constructed wetlands are commonly built using compacted clay and berms that result in less groundwater and surface water exchange than observed in natural wetlands. In a study of an active beaver meadow (multithreaded, riparian wetland) in Rocky Mountain National Park, CO, we show how shifts in hydrology (connectivity, residence times, flow paths) from late spring snowmelt (high connectivity) to autumn/winter baseflow (low connectivity) influence ecosystem metabolism metrics (e.g., gross primary production, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem productivity) and NO3- uptake rates. We use a combination of mixing analyses, tracer tests, and hydrometric methods to evaluate shifts in surface and subsurface hydrologic connections between floodplain water bodies from snowmelt to baseflow. In the main channel and three floodplain water bodies, we quantify metabolism metrics and NO3- uptake kinetics across shifting flow regimes. Results from our research indicate that NO3- uptake and metabolism dynamics respond to changing levels of hydrologic connectivity to the main channel, emphasizing the importance of incorporating connectivity in wetland mitigation practices that seek to enhance water quality at the catchment scale.

A case study for evaluating potential soil sensitivity in aridland systems.

PubMed

Peterman, Wendy L; Ferschweiler, Ken

2016-04-01

Globally, ecosystems are subjected to prolonged droughts and extreme heat events, leading to forest die-offs and dominance shifts in vegetation. Some scientists and managers view soil as the main resource to be considered in monitoring ecosystem responses to aridification. As the medium through which precipitation is received, stored, and redistributed for plant use, soil is an important factor in the sensitivity of ecosystems to a drying climate. This study presents a novel approach to evaluating where on a landscape soils may be most sensitive to drying, making them less resilient to disturbance, and where potential future vegetation changes could lead to such disturbance. The drying and devegetation of arid lands can increase wind erosion, contributing to aerosol and dust emissions. This has implications for air quality, human health, and water resources. This approach combines soil data with vegetation simulations, projecting future vegetation change, to create maps of potential areas of concern for soil sensitivity and dust production in a drying climate. Consistent with recent observations, the projections show shifts from grasslands and woodlands to shrublands in much of the southwestern region. An increase in forested area occurs, but shifts in the dominant types and spatial distribution of the forests also are seen. A net increase in desert ecosystems in the region and some changes in alpine and tundra ecosystems are seen. Approximately 124,000 km(2) of soils flagged as "sensitive" are projected to have vegetation change between 2041 and 2050, and 82,927 km(2) of soils may become sensitive because of future vegetation changes. These maps give managers a way to visualize and identify where soils and vegetation should be investigated and monitored for degradation in a drying climate, so restoration and mitigation strategies can be focused in these areas. © 2015 SETAC.

Sustaining "the Genius of Soils"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sposito, G.

2011-12-01

Soils are weathered porous earth surficial materials that exhibit an approximately vertical stratification reflecting the continual action of percolating water and living organisms. They are complex open, multicomponent, multiphase biogeochemical systems which function as both provisioning and regulatory agents in terrestrial ecosystems while influencing aquatic ecosystems through their impacts on evapotranspiration and runoff. The ability of soils to engage in their supportive ecosystem functions depends on what has been termed metaphorically as their "natural capital," the defining properties that condition soil response to biological, geological, and hydrological processes as well as human-driven activities. Natural capital must necessarily differ among soils depending on how they have developed under the five soil-forming processes, but it also can be determined by land use and by the flows of matter and energy that link the global atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere. These latter two determinants have in recent decades begun to exhibit strong variability that exceeds what has been characteristic of them during the past 10 millennia of earth history, thereby raising the apocalyptic issue of whether a deleterious or even catastrophic undermining of the ability of soils to function supportively in ecosystems is in the offing. Resolving this issue will require deeper understanding of how soils perform their provisioning and regulatory functions, how they respond to land-use changes, and how they mediate the global flows of matter and energy.

Integrating research on ecohydrology and land use change with land use management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bass, Brad; Byers, Ralph E.; Lister, Nina-Marie

1998-10-01

One objective of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme is to provide a scientific basis for sustainable development policies. Land use change and ecohydrology are important components of this scientific basis, but predicting change is difficult because of the scale and complexity of the interactions between non-linear ecohydrological and socio-economic processes at different spatial and temporal scales. A systems framework, the Ecosystem Approach, has been developed to conceptualize these interactions for the purpose of providing information for sustainable development policy. The Ecosystem Approach combines the dynamics of the Holling figure-eight model - a conceptual model of dynamics that stresses discontinuous change and destruction as an internal property of the system - and the properties of self-organizing systems with the socio political aspects of decision making.The Ecosystem Approach highlights the problems of managing change in complex systems when that change may involve unpredictable shifts to a different attractor. Although there are methods available to detect the occurrence of such shifts, both detection and modelling are complicated by the presence of semi-stable attractors. When a model or an ecosystem is on a semi-stable attractor, it may appear to remain stable for an extended period prior to changing as a consequence of inherent instabilities. When the shift to a new attractor occurs, it is quite sudden and unpredictable. A technical discussion on prediction under conditions of semi-stability and chaos is included because it enhances our understanding of the role of surprise in ecosystems, as well as the utility of simulation models.The principles of the Ecosystem Approach are derived from the theoretical discussion and an example of a land use policy in the Huron Natural Area in south-western Ontario. These principles provide a clear role for scientific research, and particularly simulation modelling, within the larger context of policy and land use management.

Adaptation, acclimation, and assembly: How optimality principles govern the scaling of form, function, and diversity of ecosystem function in the light of climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enquist, B. J.

2016-12-01

The link between variation in species-specific traits - due to acclimation, adaptation, and how ecological communities assemble in time and space - and larger scale ecosystem processes is an important focus for global change research. Understanding such linkages requires synthesis of evolutionary, biogeograpahic, and biogeochemical approaches. Recent observations reveal several paradoxical patterns across ecosystems. Optimality principles provide a novel framework for generating numerous predictions for how ecosystems have and will reorganize and respond to climate change. Tropical elevation gradients are natural laboratories to assess how changing climate can ramify to influence tropical forest diversity and ecosystem functioning. We tested several new predictions from trait- and metabolic scaling theories by assessing the covariation between climate, traits, biomass and gross and net primary productivity (GPP and NPP) across tropical forest plots spanning elevation gradients. We measured multiple leaf physiological, morphological, and stoichiometric traits linked to variation in tree growth. Consistent with theory, observed decreases in NPP and GPP with temperature were best predicted by forest biomass, and scaled allometrically as predicted by theory but the effect of temperature was much less, characterized by a kinetic response much lower ( 0.1eV) than predicted ( 0.65eV). This is likely due to an observed exponential increase in the mean community leaf P:N ratio and photosynthetic nutrient use efficiency with decreases in temperature. Our results are consistent with predictions from Trait Driver Theory, where adaptive/acclamatory shifts in plant traits compensate for the kinetic effects of temperature on tree growth. Further, most of the traits measured showed significantly skewed trait distributions consistent with recent observations that observed shifts in species composition. The development of trait-based scaling theory provides a robust basis to predict how shifts in climate have and will influence functional composition and ecosystem functioning. Together, these results highlight the potential critical importance optimality principles for understanding the role of the biosphere within the integrated earth system.

Using High-Resolution Imagery to Characterize Disturbance from Hurricane Irma in South Florida Wetlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagomasino, D.; Cook, B.; Fatoyinbo, T.; Morton, D. C.; Montesano, P.; Neigh, C. S. R.; Wooten, M.; Gaiser, E.; Troxler, T.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Irma, one of the strongest hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic, first made landfall in the Florida Keys before coming ashore in southwestern Florida near Everglades National Park (ENP) on September 9th and 10th of this year. Strong winds and storm surge impacted a 100+ km stretch of the southern Florida Gulf Coast, resulting in extensive damages to coastal and inland ecosystems. Impacts from previous catastrophic storms in the region have led to irreversible changes to vegetation communities and in some areas, ecosystem collapse. The processes that drive coastal wetland vulnerability and resilience are largely a function of the severity of the impact to forest structure and ground elevation. Remotely sensed imagery plays an important role in measuring changes to the landscape, particularly for extensive and inaccessible regions like the mangroves in ENP. We have estimated changes in coastal vegetation structure and soil elevation using a combination of repeat measurements from ground, airborne, and satellite platforms. At the ground level, we used before and after Structure-from-Motion models to capture the change in below canopy structure as result of stem breakage and fallen branches. Using airborne imagery collected before and after Hurricane Irma by Goddard's Lidar, Hyperspectral, and Thermal (G-LiHT) Airborne Imager, we measured the change in forest structure and soil elevation. This unique data acquisition covered an area over 130,000 ha in regions most heavily impacted storm surge. Lastly, we also combined commercial and NASA satellite Earth observations to measure forest structural changes across the entire South Florida coast. An analysis of long-term observations from the Landsat data archive highlights the heterogeneity of hurricane and other environmental disturbances along the Florida coast. These findings captured coastal disturbance legacies that have the potential to influence the trajectory of mangrove resilience and vulnerability following Hurricane Irma. The synergies between these unique field, airborne, and satellite observations help to capture both the legacy and immediate ecosystem responses following catastrophic storms and will ultimately be used to improve storm surge models and provide predictions for future vulnerability and degradation.

Revisiting drought impact on tree mortality and carbon fluxes in ORCHIDEE-CAN DGVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joetzjer, E.; Bartlett, M. K.; Sack, L.; Poulter, B.; Ciais, P.

2016-12-01

In the past decade, two extreme droughts in the Amazon rainforest led to a perturbation of carbon cycle dynamics and forest structure, partly through an increase in tree mortality. While there is a relatively strong consensus in CMIP5 projections for an increase in both frequency and intensity of droughts across the Amazon, the potential for forest die-off constitutes a large uncertainty in projections of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and carbon cycle feedbacks. Two long-term through fall exclusion experiments (TFE) provided novel observations of Amazonian ecosystem responses under drought. These experiments also provided a great opportunity to evaluate and improve models' behavior under drought. While current DGVMs use a wide array of algorithms to represent drought effect on ecosystem, most are associated with large uncertainty for representing drought-induced mortality, and require updating to include current information of physiological processes. During very strong droughts, the leaves desiccate and stems may undergo catastrophic embolism. However, even before that point, stomata close, to minimize excessive water loss and risk of hydraulic failure, which reduces carbon assimilation. Here, we describe a new parameterization of the stomatal conductance and mortality processes induced by drought using the ORCHIDEE-CAN dynamic vegetation model and test it using the two TFE results. We implemented a direct climate effect on mortality through catastrophic stem embolism using a new hydraulic architecture to represent the hydraulic potential gradient from the soil to the leaves based on vulnerability curves, and tree capacitance. In addition, growth primary productivity and transpiration are down-regulated by the hydraulic architecture in case of drought through stomatal conductance, which depends on the hydraulic potential of the leaf. We also explored the role of non structural carbohydrates (NSC) on hydraulic failure and mortality following the idea that stored NSC serves a critical osmotic function. Our results suggest that models have the capacity to represent drought induced individual mortality from a mechanistic perspective allowing a better understanding of the drought impacts on carbon cycle and forest structure in the tropics.

Using time-varying asymptotic length and body condition of top piscivores to indicate ecosystem regime shift in the main basin of Lake Huron: a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

He, Ji X.; Bence, James R.; Roseman, Edward F.; Fielder, David G.; Ebener, Mark P.

2015-01-01

We evaluated the ecosystem regime shift in the main basin of Lake Huron that was indicated by the 2003 collapse of alewives, and dramatic declines in Chinook salmon abundance thereafter. We found that the period of 1995-2002 should be considered as the early phase of the final regime shift. We developed two Bayesian hierarchical models to describe time-varying growth based on the von Bertalanffy growth function and the length-mass relationship. We used asymptotic length as an index of growth potential, and predicted body mass at a given length as an index of body condition. Modeling fits to length and body mass at age of lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye were excellent. Based on posterior distributions, we evaluated the shifts in among-year geometric means of the growth potential and body condition. For a given top piscivore, one of the two indices responded to the regime shift much earlier than the 2003 collapse of alewives, the other corresponded to the 2003 changes, and which index provided the early signal differed among the three top piscivores.

Understanding how seasonality and shifts in species composition impact emission estimates in semi-arid ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparks, A. M.; Yokelson, R. J.; Smith, A. M.; Marshall, J. D.; Tinkham, W.

2013-12-01

The importance of wildland fire as a source of trace gas emissions to the atmosphere has been demonstrated in the scientific literature and through numerous NASA funded campaigns to further understand the drivers and impacts of these emissions (e.g., SAFARI 1992, SAFARI 2000, TRACE A, etc). Most studies quantify emissions using remotely sensed data through multiplying the area burned, the quantity of fuel combusted, and the emission factors of a given gas species (EFX, grams of gas, X, emitted per kilogram of fuel consumed). The latter is known to exhibit considerable uncertainty and indeed a prior study as part of NASA's SAFARI 2000 campaign highlighted a seasonal dependence of carbonaceous gas species emissions. In this study, rangeland grass and shrub species were collected periodically from northern Great Basin shrub-steppe ecosystems during the typical burn season and burned in a small-scale laboratory setup where major carbonaceous and nitrogenous emission species were monitored and measured. Preliminary results indicate that emission factors of several major gas species, including carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides, vary considerably over the course of a season. Large differences in emission apportionment between the rangeland species also suggests that shifting vegetation composition (via replacement of native with invasive species) can have a significant influence on emissions from semi-arid ecosystems. Further development of this data could lead to an enhanced understanding of how emission factors vary seasonally and how total emissions change with major vegetation shifts in other ecosystems.

Shifts in tree functional composition amplify the response of forest biomass to climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Tao; Niinemets, Ülo; Sheffield, Justin; Lichstein, Jeremy W.

2018-04-01

Forests have a key role in global ecosystems, hosting much of the world’s terrestrial biodiversity and acting as a net sink for atmospheric carbon. These and other ecosystem services that are provided by forests may be sensitive to climate change as well as climate variability on shorter time scales (for example, annual to decadal). Previous studies have documented responses of forest ecosystems to climate change and climate variability, including drought-induced increases in tree mortality rates. However, relationships between forest biomass, tree species composition and climate variability have not been quantified across a large region using systematically sampled data. Here we use systematic forest inventories from the 1980s and 2000s across the eastern USA to show that forest biomass responds to decadal-scale changes in water deficit, and that this biomass response is amplified by concurrent changes in community-mean drought tolerance, a functionally important aspect of tree species composition. The amplification of the direct effects of water stress on biomass occurs because water stress tends to induce a shift in tree species composition towards species that are more tolerant to drought but are slower growing. These results demonstrate concurrent changes in forest species composition and biomass carbon storage across a large, systematically sampled region, and highlight the potential for climate-induced changes in forest ecosystems across the world, resulting from both direct effects of climate on forest biomass and indirect effects mediated by shifts in species composition.

Earth-System Scales of Biodiversity Variability in Shallow Continental Margin Seafloor Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moffitt, S. E.; White, S. M.; Hill, T. M.; Kennett, J.

2015-12-01

High-resolution paleoceanographic sedimentary sequences allow for the description of ecosystem sensitivity to earth-system scales of climate and oceanographic change. Such archives from Santa Barbara Basin, California record the ecological consequences to seafloor ecosystems of climate-forced shifts in the California Current Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ). Here we use core MV0508-20JPC dated to 735,000±5,000 years ago (Marine Isotope Stage 18) as a "floating window" of millennial-scale ecological variability. For this investigation, previously published archives of planktonic δ18O (Globigerina bulloides) record stadial and interstadial oscillations in surface ocean temperature. Core MV0508-20JPC is an intermittently laminated archive, strongly influenced by the California Current OMZ, with continuously preserved benthic foraminifera and discontinuously preserved micro-invertebrates, including ophiuroids, echinoderms, ostracods, gastropods, bivalves and scaphopods. Multivariate statistical approaches, such as ordinations and cluster analyses, describe climate-driven changes in both foraminiferal and micro-invertebrate assemblages. Statistical ordinations illustrate that the shallow continental margin seafloor underwent predictable phase-shifts in oxygenation and biodiversity across stadial and interstadial events. A narrow suite of severely hypoxic taxa characterized foraminiferal communities from laminated intervals, including Bolivina tumida, Globobulimina spp., and Nonionella stella. Foraminiferal communities from bioturbated intervals are diverse and >60% similar to each other, and they are associated with echinoderm, ostracod and mollusc fossils. As with climate shifts in the latest Quaternary, there is a sensitive benthic ecosystem response in mid-Pleistocene continental margins to climatically related changes in OMZ strength.

Shifts in tree functional composition amplify the response of forest biomass to climate.

PubMed

Zhang, Tao; Niinemets, Ülo; Sheffield, Justin; Lichstein, Jeremy W

2018-04-05

Forests have a key role in global ecosystems, hosting much of the world's terrestrial biodiversity and acting as a net sink for atmospheric carbon. These and other ecosystem services that are provided by forests may be sensitive to climate change as well as climate variability on shorter time scales (for example, annual to decadal). Previous studies have documented responses of forest ecosystems to climate change and climate variability, including drought-induced increases in tree mortality rates. However, relationships between forest biomass, tree species composition and climate variability have not been quantified across a large region using systematically sampled data. Here we use systematic forest inventories from the 1980s and 2000s across the eastern USA to show that forest biomass responds to decadal-scale changes in water deficit, and that this biomass response is amplified by concurrent changes in community-mean drought tolerance, a functionally important aspect of tree species composition. The amplification of the direct effects of water stress on biomass occurs because water stress tends to induce a shift in tree species composition towards species that are more tolerant to drought but are slower growing. These results demonstrate concurrent changes in forest species composition and biomass carbon storage across a large, systematically sampled region, and highlight the potential for climate-induced changes in forest ecosystems across the world, resulting from both direct effects of climate on forest biomass and indirect effects mediated by shifts in species composition.

Soil networks become more connected and take up more carbon as nature restoration progresses.

PubMed

Morriën, Elly; Hannula, S Emilia; Snoek, L Basten; Helmsing, Nico R; Zweers, Hans; de Hollander, Mattias; Soto, Raquel Luján; Bouffaud, Marie-Lara; Buée, Marc; Dimmers, Wim; Duyts, Henk; Geisen, Stefan; Girlanda, Mariangela; Griffiths, Rob I; Jørgensen, Helene-Bracht; Jensen, John; Plassart, Pierre; Redecker, Dirk; Schmelz, Rűdiger M; Schmidt, Olaf; Thomson, Bruce C; Tisserant, Emilie; Uroz, Stephane; Winding, Anne; Bailey, Mark J; Bonkowski, Michael; Faber, Jack H; Martin, Francis; Lemanceau, Philippe; de Boer, Wietse; van Veen, Johannes A; van der Putten, Wim H

2017-02-08

Soil organisms have an important role in aboveground community dynamics and ecosystem functioning in terrestrial ecosystems. However, most studies have considered soil biota as a black box or focussed on specific groups, whereas little is known about entire soil networks. Here we show that during the course of nature restoration on abandoned arable land a compositional shift in soil biota, preceded by tightening of the belowground networks, corresponds with enhanced efficiency of carbon uptake. In mid- and long-term abandoned field soil, carbon uptake by fungi increases without an increase in fungal biomass or shift in bacterial-to-fungal ratio. The implication of our findings is that during nature restoration the efficiency of nutrient cycling and carbon uptake can increase by a shift in fungal composition and/or fungal activity. Therefore, we propose that relationships between soil food web structure and carbon cycling in soils need to be reconsidered.

Climate-driven range shifts of the king penguin in a fragmented ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristofari, Robin; Liu, Xiaoming; Bonadonna, Francesco; Cherel, Yves; Pistorius, Pierre; Le Maho, Yvon; Raybaud, Virginie; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Le Bohec, Céline; Trucchi, Emiliano

2018-03-01

Range shift is the primary short-term species response to rapid climate change, but it is often hampered by natural or anthropogenic habitat fragmentation. Different critical areas of a species' niche may be exposed to heterogeneous environmental changes and modelling species response under such complex spatial and ecological scenarios presents well-known challenges. Here, we use a biophysical ecological niche model validated through population genomics and palaeodemography to reconstruct past range shifts and identify future vulnerable areas and potential refugia of the king penguin in the Southern Ocean. Integrating genomic and demographic data at the whole-species level with specific biophysical constraints, we present a refined framework for predicting the effect of climate change on species relying on spatially and ecologically distinct areas to complete their life cycle (for example, migratory animals, marine pelagic organisms and central-place foragers) and, in general, on species living in fragmented ecosystems.

Managing shifting species: Ancient DNA reveals conservation conundrums in a dynamic world.

PubMed

Waters, Jonathan M; Grosser, Stefanie

2016-11-01

The spread of exotic species represents a major driver of biological change across the planet. While dispersal and colonization are natural biological processes, we suggest that the failure to recognize increasing rates of human-facilitated self-introductions may represent a threat to native lineages. Notably, recent biogeographic analyses have revealed numerous cases of biological range shifts in response to anthropogenic impacts and climate change. In particular, ancient DNA analyses have revealed several cases in which lineages traditionally thought to be long-established "natives" are in fact recent colonizers. Such range expansion events have apparently occurred in response to human-mediated native biodiversity declines and ecosystem change, particularly in recently colonized, isolated ecosystems such as New Zealand. While such events can potentially boost local biodiversity, the spread of exotic lineages may also hasten the decline of indigenous species, so it is essential that conservation managers recognize these rapid biotic shifts.​. © 2016 WILEY Periodicals, Inc.

Shifts in coral-assemblage composition do not ensure persistence of reef functionality.

PubMed

Alvarez-Filip, Lorenzo; Carricart-Ganivet, Juan P; Horta-Puga, Guillermo; Iglesias-Prieto, Roberto

2013-12-12

Coral communities are changing rapidly worldwide through loss of coral cover and shifts in species composition. Although many reef-building corals are likely to decline, some weedy opportunistic species might increase in abundance. Here we explore whether the reshuffling of species can maintain ecosystem integrity and functioning. Using four common Caribbean reef-building coral genera we modeled rates of reef construction and complexity. We show that shifting coral assemblages result in rapid losses in coral-community calcification and reef rugosity that are independent of changes in the total abundance of reef corals. These losses are considerably higher than those recently attributed to climate change. Dominance patterns of coral assemblages seem to be the most important driver of the functioning of coral reefs and thus, the future of these ecosystems might depend not only on reductions of local and global stressors, but also on the maintenance of keystone coral species.

Critical Watersheds: Climate Change, Tipping Points, and Energy-Water Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Middleton, R. S.; Brown, M.; Coon, E.; Linn, R.; McDowell, N. G.; Painter, S. L.; Xu, C.

2014-12-01

Climate change, extreme climate events, and climate-induced disturbances will have a substantial and detrimental impact on terrestrial ecosystems. How ecosystems respond to these impacts will, in turn, have a significant effect on the quantity, quality, and timing of water supply for energy security, agriculture, industry, and municipal use. As a community, we lack sufficient quantitative and mechanistic understanding of the complex interplay between climate extremes (e.g., drought, floods), ecosystem dynamics (e.g., vegetation succession), and disruptive events (e.g., wildfire) to assess ecosystem vulnerabilities and to design mitigation strategies that minimize or prevent catastrophic ecosystem impacts. Through a combination of experimental and observational science and modeling, we are developing a unique multi-physics ecohydrologic framework for understanding and quantifying feedbacks between novel climate and extremes, surface and subsurface hydrology, ecosystem dynamics, and disruptive events in critical watersheds. The simulation capability integrates and advances coupled surface-subsurface hydrology from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), dynamic vegetation succession from the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, and QUICFIRE, a novel wildfire behavior model developed from the FIRETEC platform. These advances are expected to make extensive contributions to the literature and to earth system modeling. The framework is designed to predict, quantify, and mitigate the impacts of climate change on vulnerable watersheds, with a focus on the US Mountain West and the energy-water nexus. This emerging capability is used to identify tipping points in watershed ecosystems, quantify impacts on downstream users, and formally evaluate mitigation efforts including forest (e.g., thinning, prescribed burns) and watershed (e.g., slope stabilization). The framework is being trained, validated, and demonstrated using field observations and remote data collections in the Valles Caldera National Preserve, including pre- and post-wildfire and infestation observations. Ultimately, the framework will be applied to the upper Colorado River basin. Here, we present an overview of the framework development strategy and latest field and modeling results.

The Effects of Warming-Shifted Plant Phenology on Ecosystem Carbon Exchange Are Regulated by Precipitation in a Semi-Arid Grassland

PubMed Central

Xia, Jianyang; Wan, Shiqiang

2012-01-01

Background The longer growing season under climate warming has served as a crucial mechanism for the enhancement of terrestrial carbon (C) sink over the past decades. A better understanding of this mechanism is critical for projection of changes in C cycling of terrestrial ecosystems. Methodology/Principal Findings A 4-year field experiment with day and night warming was conducted to examine the responses of plant phenology and their influences on plant coverage and ecosystem C cycling in a temperate steppe in northern China. Greater phenological responses were observed under night than day warming. Both day and night warming prolonged the growing season by advancing phenology of early-blooming species but without changing that of late-blooming species. However, no warming response of vegetation coverage was found for any of the eight species. The variances in species-level coverage and ecosystem C fluxes under different treatments were positively dependent upon the accumulated precipitation within phenological duration but not the length of phenological duration. Conclusions/Significance These plants' phenology is more sensitive to night than day warming, and the warming effects on ecosystem C exchange via shifting plant phenology could be mediated by precipitation patterns in semi-arid grasslands. PMID:22359660

Warming alters community size structure and ecosystem functioning

PubMed Central

Dossena, Matteo; Yvon-Durocher, Gabriel; Grey, Jonathan; Montoya, José M.; Perkins, Daniel M.; Trimmer, Mark; Woodward, Guy

2012-01-01

Global warming can affect all levels of biological complexity, though we currently understand least about its potential impact on communities and ecosystems. At the ecosystem level, warming has the capacity to alter the structure of communities and the rates of key ecosystem processes they mediate. Here we assessed the effects of a 4°C rise in temperature on the size structure and taxonomic composition of benthic communities in aquatic mesocosms, and the rates of detrital decomposition they mediated. Warming had no effect on biodiversity, but altered community size structure in two ways. In spring, warmer systems exhibited steeper size spectra driven by declines in total community biomass and the proportion of large organisms. By contrast, in autumn, warmer systems had shallower size spectra driven by elevated total community biomass and a greater proportion of large organisms. Community-level shifts were mirrored by changes in decomposition rates. Temperature-corrected microbial and macrofaunal decomposition rates reflected the shifts in community structure and were strongly correlated with biomass across mesocosms. Our study demonstrates that the 4°C rise in temperature expected by the end of the century has the potential to alter the structure and functioning of aquatic ecosystems profoundly, as well as the intimate linkages between these levels of ecological organization. PMID:22496185

Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.

2014-01-01

Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

Consequences of salinity and freezing stress for two populations of Quercus virginiana Mill

Treesearch

Cassandra M. Kurtz; Jessica A. Savage; I-Yu Huang; Jeannine Cavender-Bares

2013-01-01

Climate change is of increasing concern in coastal forests where rising sea levels could lead to dramatic shifts in ecosystem composition. To investigate how inundation may impact coastal ecosystems, we examined the sensitivity of Quercus virginiana Mill., a dominant tree in the southeastern U.S., to increased soil salinity and examined whether high...

A Case for National Security: Using the Might Tuna to Frame U.S. Coast Guard’s Role in the Strategic Shift to the Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-13

corruption and cheating. This also makes it extremely difficult to determine the actual impact on the resource and the entire ecosystem . “Overfishing...limits, established under international agreements. By adversely impacting fisheries, marine ecosystems , food security and coastal communities around...

Integrating neotropical migratory birds into Forest Service plans for ecosystem management

Treesearch

Deborah M. Finch; William M. Block; Reg A. Fletcher; Leon F. Fager

1993-01-01

The USDA Forest Service is undergoing a major change in focus in response to public interests, growing concern for sustaining natural resources, and new knowledge about wildlife, fisheries, forests and grasslands, and how they interact at the ecosystem level. This shift in direction affects how Forest Service lands are managed, what research is conducted, how resource...

Abundance of introduced species at home predicts abundance away in herbaceous communities

Treesearch

J. Firn; J.L. Moore; A.S. MacDougall; E.T. Borer; E.W. Seabloom; J. HilleRisLambers; S. Harpole; E.E. Cleland; C.S. Brown; J.M.H. Knops; S.M. Prober; D.A. Pyke; K.A. Farrell; J.D. Bakker; L.R. O’Halloran; P.B. Adler; S.L. Collins; C.M. D’Antonio; M.J. Crawley; E.M. Wolkovich; K.J. La Pierre; B.A. Melbourne; Y. Hautier; J.W. Morgan; A.D.B. Leakey; A.D. Kay; R.L. McCulley; K.F. Davies; C.J. Stevens; C.J. Chu

2011-01-01

Many ecosystems worldwide are dominated by introduced plant species, leading to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function. A common but rarely tested assumption is that these plants are more abundant in introduced vs. native communities, because ecological or evolutionary-based shifts in populations underlie invasion success. Here, data for 26 herbaceous species at...

Application of the riverine ecosystem synthesis (RES) and the functional process zone (FPZ) approach to EPA environmental mission tasks for rivers

EPA Science Inventory

The shift to watershed management of rivers from a more reach-based approach has had far-reaching implications for the way we characterize and classify rivers and then use this information to understand and manage biodiversity, ecological functions, and ecosystem services in rive...

Woodland expansion's influence on belowground carbon and nitrogen in the Great Basin U.S.

Treesearch

Benjamin M. Rau; Dale W. Johnson; Robert R. Blank; Robin J. Tausch; Bruce A. Roundy; Richard F. Miller; Todd G. Caldwell; Annmarie Lucchesi

2011-01-01

Vegetation changes associated with climate shifts and anthropogenic disturbance can have major impacts on biogeochemical cycling and soils. Much of the Great Basin, U.S. is currently dominated by sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate (Rydb.) Boivin) ecosystems. Sagebrush ecosystems are increasingly influenced by pinyon (Pinus monophylla Torr. & Frém and Pinus edulis...

Developing a protocol for long-term population monitoring and habitat projections for a climate-sensitive sentinel species to track ecosystem change and species range shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beers, A.

2016-12-01

As a response to ongoing climate change, many species have started to shift their ranges poleward and toward higher elevations and mountain environments are predicted to experience especially rapid climatic changes. Because of this, there is likely a greater risk of habitat loss and local extinctions for species at high elevations compared to species at lower elevations. Among those potentially threatened habitat specialists is the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a climate sensitive indicator of climate change effects which may already be experiencing climate driven extirpations. Pikas are considered sentinels, indicators of greater ecosystem change. Changes in their distribution speaks to changes in availability of resources they require and shifts in the environment. Pika presence is closely tied to sub-surface ice features that act as a temperature buffer and water source. Those sub-surface ice features are critical in water cycling and long-term water storage and drive downstream hydrological and ecological processes. Understanding how this species responds to climate change therefore provides a model to inform landscape level conservation and management decisions. Pikas may be particularly vulnerable in parts of Colorado, including Rocky Mountain National Park (ROMO) and the Niwot Ridge LTER (NWT), where they may face population collapse as habitat suitability and connectivity both decline in response to various possible climate change scenarios, in large part because of cold stress and declining functional connectivity. Because of their potential role as an ecosystem indicator, their risk for decline, and how limitations to their survival likely vary across their range, management groups can use place based models of habitat suitability for pikas or other sentinel species in designing long term monitoring protocols to detect ecosystem responses to climate change. In this project we used remotely sensed data, occupancy surveys, and a random tessellation stratification to design a protocol for ROMO and NWT that best suits those environments. We also demonstrate the efficacy of habitat models based on remote sensing and their potential application toward tracking ecosystem change and species range shifts.

Nitrogen Fertilization of Corn: Plant Biochemistry Effects and Carbon Cycle Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallagher, M. E.; Hockaday, W. C.; Masiello, C. A.; McSwiney, C. P.; Robertson, G. P.; Baldock, J. A.

2008-05-01

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are rising due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions (Alley et al. 2007; Prentice et al. 2001). About half of the anthropogenic CO2 emitted during the 1990s was absorbed by the terrestrial biosphere and ocean (Prentice et al. 2001). It is possible to estimate the size of terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks individually using atmospheric CO2 and O2 measurements (Keeling et al. 1996). To best estimate the sizes of these carbon sinks, we need to accurately know the oxidative ratio (OR) of the terrestrial biosphere (Randerson et al. 2006). OR is the ratio of the moles of O2 released per moles of CO2 consumed in gas fluxes between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere. Though it is likely that the net OR of the biosphere varies with ecosystem type and nutrient status, OR is assumed constant in carbon sink apportionment calculations (e.g. Prentice et al. 2001). Small shifts in OR can lead to large variations in the calculated sizes of the terrestrial biosphere and ocean carbon sinks (Randerson et al. 2006). OR likely shifts with changes in climate, nutrient status, and land use. These shifts are due, in part, to shifts in plant biochemistry. We are measuring ecosystem OR in corn agricultural ecosystems under a range of nitrogen fertilization treatments at the Kellogg Biological Station-Long Term Ecological Research Site (KBS-LTER) in Michigan. We measure OR indirectly, through its relationship with organic carbon oxidation state (Cox) (Masiello et al. in press 2008). Cox can be measured through elemental analysis and, with basic knowledge of plant nitrogen use patterns, Cox values can be converted to OR values. Cox can also be measured through 13C nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR), which can be combined with a molecular mixing model to determine Cox, OR, and plant biochemical composition (i.e. percentage carbohydrates, lignin, lipids, and proteins) (Baldock et al. 2004). Here we present data showing the effects of varying corn ecosystem nitrogen fertilization rates (from 0 to 292 kg N/ha) on ecosystem OR and plant biochemistry.

Importance of vegetation dynamics for future terrestrial carbon cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlström, Anders; Xia, Jianyang; Arneth, Almut; Luo, Yiqi; Smith, Benjamin

2015-05-01

Terrestrial ecosystems currently sequester about one third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions each year, an important ecosystem service that dampens climate change. The future fate of this net uptake of CO2 by land based ecosystems is highly uncertain. Most ecosystem models used to predict the future terrestrial carbon cycle share a common architecture, whereby carbon that enters the system as net primary production (NPP) is distributed to plant compartments, transferred to litter and soil through vegetation turnover and then re-emitted to the atmosphere in conjunction with soil decomposition. However, while all models represent the processes of NPP and soil decomposition, they vary greatly in their representations of vegetation turnover and the associated processes governing mortality, disturbance and biome shifts. Here we used a detailed second generation dynamic global vegetation model with advanced representation of vegetation growth and mortality, and the associated turnover. We apply an emulator that describes the carbon flows and pools exactly as in simulations with the full model. The emulator simulates ecosystem dynamics in response to 13 different climate or Earth system model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble under RCP8.5 radiative forcing. By exchanging carbon cycle processes between these 13 simulations we quantified the relative roles of three main driving processes of the carbon cycle; (I) NPP, (II) vegetation dynamics and turnover and (III) soil decomposition, in terms of their contribution to future carbon (C) uptake uncertainties among the ensemble of climate change scenarios. We found that NPP, vegetation turnover (including structural shifts, wild fires and mortality) and soil decomposition rates explained 49%, 17% and 33%, respectively, of uncertainties in modelled global C-uptake. Uncertainty due to vegetation turnover was further partitioned into stand-clearing disturbances (16%), wild fires (0%), stand dynamics (7%), reproduction (10%) and biome shifts (67%) globally. We conclude that while NPP and soil decomposition rates jointly account for 83% of future climate induced C-uptake uncertainties, vegetation turnover and structure, dominated by biome shifts, represent a significant fraction globally and regionally (tropical forests: 40%), strongly motivating their representation and analysis in future C-cycle studies.

Status of peatland degradation and development in Sumatra and Kalimantan.

PubMed

Miettinen, Jukka; Liew, Soo Chin

2010-01-01

Peatlands cover around 13 Mha in Sumatra and Kalimantan, Indonesia. Human activities have rapidly increased in the peatland ecosystems during the last two decades, invariably degrading them and making them vulnerable to fires. This causes high carbon emissions that contribute to global climate change. For this article, we used 94 high resolution (10-20 m) satellite images to map the status of peatland degradation and development in Sumatra and Kalimantan using visual image interpretation. The results reveal that less than 4% of the peatland areas remain covered by pristine peatswamp forests (PSFs), while 37% are covered by PSFs with varying degree of degradation. Furthermore, over 20% is considered to be unmanaged degraded landscape, occupied by ferns, shrubs and secondary growth. This alarming extent of degradation makes peatlands vulnerable to accelerated peat decomposition and catastrophic fire episodes that will have global consequences. With on-going degradation and development the existence of the entire tropical peatland ecosystem in this region is in great danger.

Conservation of wildlife populations: factoring in incremental disturbance.

PubMed

Stewart, Abbie; Komers, Petr E

2017-06-01

Progressive anthropogenic disturbance can alter ecosystem organization potentially causing shifts from one stable state to another. This potential for ecosystem shifts must be considered when establishing targets and objectives for conservation. We ask whether a predator-prey system response to incremental anthropogenic disturbance might shift along a disturbance gradient and, if it does, whether any disturbance thresholds are evident for this system. Development of linear corridors in forested areas increases wolf predation effectiveness, while high density of development provides a safe-haven for their prey. If wolves limit moose population growth, then wolves and moose should respond inversely to land cover disturbance. Using general linear model analysis, we test how the rate of change in moose ( Alces alces ) density and wolf ( Canis lupus ) harvest density are influenced by the rate of change in land cover and proportion of land cover disturbed within a 300,000 km 2 area in the boreal forest of Alberta, Canada. Using logistic regression, we test how the direction of change in moose density is influenced by measures of land cover change. In response to incremental land cover disturbance, moose declines occurred where <43% of land cover was disturbed; in such landscapes, there were high rates of increase in linear disturbance and wolf density increased. By contrast, moose increases occurred where >43% of land cover was disturbed and wolf density declined. Wolves and moose appeared to respond inversely to incremental disturbance with the balance between moose decline and wolf increase shifting at about 43% of land cover disturbed. Conservation decisions require quantification of disturbance rates and their relationships to predator-prey systems because ecosystem responses to anthropogenic disturbance shift across disturbance gradients.

Shifting conceptions of complexity in forest management and silviculture

Treesearch

Robert T. Fahey; Brandon C. Alveshere; Julia I. Burton; Anthony W. D' Amato; Yvette L. Dickinson; William S. Keeton; Christel C. Kern; Andrew J. Larson; Brian J. Palik; Klaus J. Puettmann; Michael R. Saunders; Christopher R. Webster; Jeff W. Atkins; Christopher M. Gough; Brady S. Hardiman

2018-01-01

In the past several decades, a trend in forestry and silviculture has been toward promoting complexity in forest ecosystems, but how complexity is conceived and described has shifted over time as new ideas and terminology have been introduced. Historically, ecologically-focused silviculture has focused largely on manipulation of structural complexity, but often with...

Climate change, animal species, and habitats: Adaptation and issues (Chapter 5)

Treesearch

Deborah M. Finch; D. Max Smith; Olivia LeDee; Jean-Luc E. Cartron; Mark A. Rumble

2012-01-01

Because the rate of anthropogenic climate change exceeds the adaptive capacity of many animal and plant species, the scientific community anticipates negative consequences for ecosystems. Changes in climate have expanded, contracted, or shifted the climate niches of many species, often resulting in shifting geographic ranges. In the Great Basin, for example, projected...

Disturbance and temporal partitioning of the activated sludge metacommunity

PubMed Central

Vuono, David C; Benecke, Jan; Henkel, Jochen; Navidi, William C; Cath, Tzahi Y; Munakata-Marr, Junko; Spear, John R; Drewes, Jörg E

2015-01-01

The resilience of microbial communities to press disturbances and whether ecosystem function is governed by microbial composition or by the environment have not been empirically tested. To address these issues, a whole-ecosystem manipulation was performed in a full-scale activated sludge wastewater treatment plant. The parameter solids retention time (SRT) was used to manipulate microbial composition, which started at 30 days, then decreased to 12 and 3 days, before operation was restored to starting conditions (30-day SRT). Activated sludge samples were collected throughout the 313-day time series in parallel with bioreactor performance (‘ecosystem function'). Bacterial small subunit (SSU) rRNA genes were surveyed from sludge samples resulting in a sequence library of >417 000 SSU rRNA genes. A shift in community composition was observed for 12- and 3-day SRTs. The composition was altered such that r-strategists were enriched in the system during the 3-day SRT, whereas K-strategists were only present at SRTs⩾12 days. This shift corresponded to loss of ecosystem functions (nitrification, denitrification and biological phosphorus removal) for SRTs⩽12 days. Upon return to a 30-day SRT, complete recovery of the bioreactor performance was observed after 54 days despite an incomplete recovery of bacterial diversity. In addition, a different, yet phylogenetically related, community with fewer of its original rare members displaced the pre-disturbance community. Our results support the hypothesis that microbial ecosystems harbor functionally redundant phylotypes with regard to general ecosystem functions (carbon oxidation, nitrification, denitrification and phosphorus accumulation). However, the impacts of decreased rare phylotype membership on ecosystem stability and micropollutant removal remain unknown. PMID:25126758

Shifts of methanogenic communities in response to permafrost thaw results in rising methane emissions and soil property changes.

PubMed

Wei, Shiping; Cui, Hongpeng; Zhu, Youhai; Lu, Zhenquan; Pang, Shouji; Zhang, Shuai; Dong, Hailiang; Su, Xin

2018-05-01

Permafrost thaw can bring negative consequences in terms of ecosystems, resulting in permafrost collapse, waterlogging, thermokarst lake development, and species composition changes. Little is known about how permafrost thaw influences microbial community shifts and their activities. Here, we show that the dominant archaeal community shifts from Methanomicrobiales to Methanosarcinales in response to the permafrost thaw, and the increase in methane emission is found to be associated with the methanogenic archaea, which rapidly bloom with nearly tenfold increase in total number. The mcrA gene clone libraries analyses indicate that Methanocellales/Rice Cluster I was predominant both in the original permafrost and in the thawed permafrost. However, only species belonging to Methanosarcinales showed higher transcriptional activities in the thawed permafrost, indicating a shift of methanogens from hydrogenotrophic to partly acetoclastic methane-generating metabolic processes. In addition, data also show the soil texture and features change as a result of microbial reproduction and activity induced by this permafrost thaw. Those data indicate that microbial ecology under warming permafrost has potential impacts on ecosystem and methane emissions.

From Ecosystem-Scale to Litter Biochemistry: Controls on Carbon Sequestration in Coastal Wetlands of the Western Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louchouarn, P.; Kaiser, K.; Norwood, M. J.; Sterne, A. M. E.; Armitage, A. R.; HighField, W.; Brody, S.

2015-12-01

Landscape-level shifts in plant species distribution and abundance can fundamentally change the structure and services of an ecosystem. Such shifts are occurring within mangrove-marsh ecotones of the U.S., where over the last few decades, relatively mild winters have led to mangrove expansion into areas previously occupied by salt marsh plants. Here we present the synthesis of 3 years of multidisciplinary work to quantify ecosystem shifts at the regional scale, along the entire Texas (USA) coast of the western Gulf of Mexico, and transcribe these shifts into carbon (C) sequestration mass balances. We classified Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper images using artificial neural networks to quantify shifts in areal coverage of black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) and salt marsh (Spartina alterniflora and other grass and forb species) over 20 years across the Texas Gulf coast. Between 1990 and 2010, mangrove area expanded by 74% (+16 km2). Concurrently, salt marsh area experienced a net loss of 24% (-78 km2). Most of that loss was due to conversion to tidal flats or water, likely a result of relative sea level rise, with only 6% attributable to mangrove expansion. Although relative carbon load (per surface area) are statistically larger for mangrove wetlands, total C loads are larger for salt marsh wetlands due to their greater aerial coverage. The entire loss of above ground C (~7.0·109 g), was offset by salt marsh expansion (2.0·109 g) and mangrove expansion (5.6·109 g) over the study period. Concurrently, the net loss in salt marsh coverage led to a loss in below ground C accumulation capacity of 2.0·109 g/yr, whereas the net expansion of mangrove wetlands led to an added below ground C accumulation capacity of 0.4·109 g/yr. Biomarker data show that neutral carbohydrates and lignin contributed 30-70% and 10-40% of total C, respectively, in plant litter and surface sediments. Sharp declines of carbohydrate yields with depth occur parallel to increases in lignin degradation ratios, indicating substantial decomposition of both the polysaccharide and lignin components of litter detritus. Further, biomarker data suggest that litter chemistry is the primary control of C preservation in these wetland ecosystems. This study shows that shifts in plant composition influence C sequestration potential from landscape to molecular levels.

Introduction to the special issue on “Understanding and predicting change in the coastal ecosystems of the northern Gulf of Mexico”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brock, John C.; Barras, John A.; Williams, S. Jeffress

2013-01-01

The coastal region of the northern Gulf of Mexico owes its current landscape structure to an array of tectonic, erosional and depositional, climatic, geochemical, hydrological, ecological, and human processes that have resulted in some of the world's most complex, dynamic, productive, and threatened ecosystems. Catastrophic hurricane landfalls, ongoing subsidence and erosion exacerbated by sea-level rise, disintegration of barrier island chains, and high rates of wetland loss have called attention to the vulnerability of northern Gulf coast ecosystems, habitats, built infrastructure, and economy to natural and anthropogenic threats. The devastating hurricanes of 2005 (Katrina and Rita) motivated the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program and partnering researchers to pursue studies aimed at understanding and predicting landscape change and the associated storm hazard vulnerability of northern Gulf coast region ecosystems and human communities. Attaining this science goal requires increased knowledge of landscape evolution on geologic, historical, and human time scales, and analysis of the implications of such changes in the natural and built components of the landscape for hurricane impact susceptibility. This Special Issue of the Journal of Coastal Research communicates northern Gulf of Mexico research results that (1) improve knowledge of prior climates and depositional environments, (2) assess broad regional ecosystem structure and change over Holocene to human time scales, (3) undertake process studies and change analyses of dynamic landscape components, and (4) integrate framework, climate, variable time and spatial scale mapping, monitoring, and discipline-specific process investigations within interdisciplinary studies.

Scenarios of global agricultural biomass harvest reveal conflicts and trade-offs for bioenergy with CCS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, Tom; Lenton, Tim

2013-04-01

We assess the quantitative potential for future land management to help rebalance the global carbon cycle by actively removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere with simultaneous bio-energy offsets of CO2 emissions, whilst meeting global food demand, preserving natural ecosystems and minimising CO2 emissions from land use change. Four alternative future scenarios are considered out to 2050 with different combinations of high or low technology food production and high or low meat diets. Natural ecosystems are protected except when additional land is necessary to fulfil the dietary demands of the global population. Dedicated bio-energy crops can only be grown on land that is already under management but is no longer needed for food production. We find that there is only room for dedicated bio-energy crops if there is a marked increase in the efficiency of food production (sustained annual yield growth of 1%, shifts towards more efficient animals like pigs and poultry, and increased recycling of wastes and residues). If there is also a return to lower meat diets, biomass energy with carbon storage (BECS) as CO2 and biochar could remove up to 4.0 Pg C per year in 2050. With the current trend to higher meat diets there is only room for limited expansion of bio-energy crops after 2035 and instead BECS must be based largely on biomass residues, removing up to 1.5 Pg C per year in. A high-meat, low-efficiency future would be a catastrophe for natural ecosystems (and thus for the humans that depend on their services) with around 8.5 Gha under cultivation in 2050. When included in a simple earth system model with a technological mitigation CO2 emission baseline these produce atmospheric CO2 concentrations of ~ 450-525ppm in 2050. In addition we assess the potential for future biodiversity loss under the scenarios due to three interacting factors; energy withdrawal from ecosystems due to biomass harvest, habitat loss due to land-use change, and climate change. Forecasts of committed global biodiversity loss in 2050 (from 2000 levels) vary by more than a factor of two across the scenarios. The greatest biodiversity loss is forecast in the 'high meat low efficiency' scenario with roughly equal contributions from biomass harvest and climate change, and a smaller land-use change contribution. The smallest biodiversity loss is forecast in the 'high meat high efficiency' scenario and is mostly due to biomass harvest, followed by climate change. Climate change is lowest in the 'low meat high efficiency' efficiency scenario thanks to BECCS based on bio-energy crops, but the resulting withdrawal of energy from ecosystems has a greater negative impact on biodiversity than the positive effect of less climate change. This suggests that using bio-energy to tackle climate change in order to limit biodiversity loss would instead have the opposite effect.

A 200-year perspective on alternative stable state theory and lake management from a biomanipulated shallow lake.

PubMed

Hobbs, William O; Hobbs, Joy M Ramstack; LaFrançois, Toben; Zimmer, Kyle D; Theissen, Kevin M; Edlund, Mark B; Michelutti, Neal; Butler, Malcolm G; Hanson, Mark A; Carlson, Thomas J

2012-07-01

Multiple stressors to a shallow lake ecosystem have the ability to control the relative stability of alternative states (clear, macrophyte-dominated or turbid, algal-dominated). As a consequence, the use of remedial biomanipulations to induce trophic cascades and shift a turbid lake to a clear state is often only a temporary solution. Here we show the instability of short-term manipulations in the shallow Lake Christina (Minnesota, USA) is governed by the long-term state following a regime shift in the lake. During the modern, managed period of the lake, three top-down manipulations (fish kills) were undertaken inducing temporary (5-10 years) unstable clear-water states. Paleoecological remains of diatoms, along with proxies of primary production (total chlorophyll a and total organic carbon accumulation rate) and trophic state (total P) from sediment records clearly show a single regime shift in the lake during the early 1950s; following this shift, the functioning of the lake ecosystem is dominated by a persistent turbid state. We find that multiple stressors contributed to the regime shift. First, the lake began to eutrophy (from agricultural land use and/or increased waterfowl populations), leading to a dramatic increase in primary production. Soon after, the construction of a dam in 1936 effectively doubled the depth of the lake, compounded by increases in regional humidity; this resulted in an increase in planktivorous and benthivorous fish reducing phytoplankton grazers. These factors further conspired to increase the stability of a turbid regime during the modern managed period, such that switches to a clear-water state were inherently unstable and the lake consistently returned to a turbid state. We conclude that while top-down manipulations have had measurable impacts on the lake state, they have not been effective in providing a return to an ecosystem similar to the stable historical period. Our work offers an example of a well-studied ecosystem forced by multiple stressors into a new long-term managed period, where manipulated clear-water states are temporary, managed features.

Experimental floods cause ecosystem regime shift in a regulated river.

PubMed

Robinson, Christopher T; Uehlinger, Urs

2008-03-01

Reservoirs have altered the flow regime of most rivers on the globe. To simulate the natural flow regime, experimental floods are being implemented on regulated rivers throughout the world to improve their ecological integrity. As a large-scale disturbance, the long-term sequential use of floods provides an excellent empirical approach to examine ecosystem regime shifts in rivers. This study evaluated the long-term effects of floods (15 floods over eight years) on a regulated river. We hypothesized that sequential floods over time would cause a regime shift in the ecosystem. The floods resulted in little change in the physicochemistry of the river, although particulate organic carbon and particulate phosphorus were lower after the floods. The floods eliminated moss cover on bed sediments within the first year of flooding and maintained low periphyton biomass and benthic organic matter after the third year of flooding. Organic matter in transport was reduced after the third year of flooding, although peaks were still observed during rain events due to tributary inputs and side slopes. The floods reduced macroinvertebrate richness and biomass after the first year of floods, but density was not reduced until the third year. The individual mass of invertebrates decreased by about one-half after the floods. Specific taxa displayed either a loss in abundance, or an increase in abundance, or an increase followed by a loss after the third year. The first three flood years were periods of nonequilibrium with coefficients of variation in all measured parameters increasing two to five times from those before the floods. Coefficients of variation decreased after the third year, although they were still higher than before the floods. Analysis of concordance using Kendall's W confirmed the temporal changes observed in macroinvertebrate assemblage structure. An assessment of individual flood effects showed that later floods had approximately 30% less effect on macroinvertebrates than early floods of similar magnitude, suggesting that the new assemblage structure is more resilient to flood disturbance. We conclude that the floods caused an ecosystem regime shift that took three years to unfold. Additional long-term changes or shifts are expected as new taxa colonize the river from other sources.

Penguin Proxies: Deciphering Millennial-Scale Antarctic Ecosystem Change using Amino Acid Stable Isotope Analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michelson, C.; McMahon, K.; Emslie, S. D.; Patterson, W. P.; McCarthy, M. D.; Polito, M. J.

2017-12-01

The Southern Ocean ecosystem is undergoing rapid environmental change due to ongoing and historic anthropogenic impacts such as climate change and marine mammal harvesting. These disturbances may have cascading effects through the Antarctic food webs, resulting in profound shifts in the sources and cycling of organic matter supporting higher-trophic organisms, such as penguins. For example, bulk stable isotope analyses of modern and ancient preserved penguin tissues suggest variations in penguin feeding ecology throughout the Holocene with dramatic isotopic shifts in the last 200 years. However, it is not clear whether these isotopic shifts resulted from changes at the base of the food web, dietary shifts in penguins, or some combination of both factors. Newly developed compound-specific stable nitrogen isotope analysis of individual amino acids (CSIA-AA) may provide a powerful new tool to tease apart these confounding variables. Stable nitrogen isotope values of trophic amino acids (e.g., glutamic acid) increase substantially with each trophic transfer in the food web, while source amino acid (e.g., phenylalanine) stable nitrogen isotope values remain relatively unchanged and reflect ecosystem baselines. As such, we can use this CSIA-AA approach to decipher between baseline and dietary shifts in penguins over time from modern and ancient eggshells of Pygoscelis penguins in the Antarctic Peninsula and the Ross Sea regions of Antarctica. In order to accurately apply this CSIA-AA approach, we first characterized the trophic fractionation factors of individual amino acids between diet and penguin consumers in a long-term controlled penguin feeding experiment. We then applied these values to modern and ancient eggshells from the Antarctic Peninsula and Ross Sea to evaluate shifts in penguin trophic dynamics as a function of climate and anthropogenic interaction throughout much of the Holocene. This work develops a cutting edge new molecular geochemistry approach applied to penguins as sensitive indicators of past environmental change in Antarctica.

A Community Perspective on the Effects of Climate Change on Species Distributions in the Boreal Forest of the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morelli, T. L.; DeLuca, W. V.; Duclos, T. R.; Foster, J. R.; Siren, A. P.

2016-12-01

The way that climate change will impact species ranges through habitat change and modify species interactions is not well enough understood. We took a community view of the climate-vulnerable, biologically-important spruce-fir forest ecosystem of the northeastern U.S., examining if and how species are responding to warming and changing precipitation patterns. We examined how fluctuations in temperature and snowpack influence distributional shifts along elevational and latitudinal gradients; for example, milder winter conditions may allow generalist carnivores such as bobcats to access boreal forest habitat, increasing direct and indirect competition with Canada lynx and American marten for prey. In another example of climate-driven predation shifts, upslope shifts of American red squirrels may increase predation rates on vulnerable montane songbirds. We combined data from weather stations with model-based high resolution data to obtain information on historical and present climate variables. We forecasted spruce-fir forest extent using landscape and ecosystem models under a combination of global circulation model projections and representative concentration pathways for the northern Appalachians. Presence and abundance data from animal surveys were used to build occupancy models to assess the habitat, climate, and species relationships. Species responded individually with geographic variation in response within and across species. Some species closely tracked climate changes, whereas others showed no response, or even responses such as shifts southward that were counter to what would be expected. For example, although low elevation boreal bird species showed evidence of expanding upslope, most high elevation species expanded downslope. This work highlights the need to take a mechanistic perspective of species responses to climate change and avoid generalizations of simple shifts northward and upward. Understanding how climate change affects community dynamics will improve predictions of how individual species will respond to climate change. These predictions then provide information about how distributional shifts will occur in a biologically critical ecosystem and if there will be climate change refugia they can target for management.

N-dimensional hypervolumes to study stability of complex ecosystems

PubMed Central

Barros, Ceres; Thuiller, Wilfried; Georges, Damien; Boulangeat, Isabelle; Münkemüller, Tamara

2016-01-01

Although our knowledge on the stabilising role of biodiversity and on how it is affected by perturbations has greatly improved, we still lack a comprehensive view on ecosystem stability that is transversal to different habitats and perturbations. Hence, we propose a framework that takes advantage of the multiplicity of components of an ecosystem and their contribution to stability. Ecosystem components can range from species or functional groups, to different functional traits, or even the cover of different habitats in a landscape mosaic. We make use of n-dimensional hypervolumes to define ecosystem states and assess how much they shift after environmental changes have occurred. We demonstrate the value of this framework with a study case on the effects of environmental change on Alpine ecosystems. Our results highlight the importance of a multidimensional approach when studying ecosystem stability and show that our framework is flexible enough to be applied to different types of ecosystem components, which can have important implications for the study of ecosystem stability and transient dynamics. PMID:27282314

Global biodiversity, stoichiometry and ecosystem function responses to human-induced C-N-P imbalances.

PubMed

Carnicer, Jofre; Sardans, Jordi; Stefanescu, Constantí; Ubach, Andreu; Bartrons, Mireia; Asensio, Dolores; Peñuelas, Josep

2015-01-01

Global change analyses usually consider biodiversity as a global asset that needs to be preserved. Biodiversity is frequently analysed mainly as a response variable affected by diverse environmental drivers. However, recent studies highlight that gradients of biodiversity are associated with gradual changes in the distribution of key dominant functional groups characterized by distinctive traits and stoichiometry, which in turn often define the rates of ecosystem processes and nutrient cycling. Moreover, pervasive links have been reported between biodiversity, food web structure, ecosystem function and species stoichiometry. Here we review current global stoichiometric gradients and how future distributional shifts in key functional groups may in turn influence basic ecosystem functions (production, nutrient cycling, decomposition) and therefore could exert a feedback effect on stoichiometric gradients. The C-N-P stoichiometry of most primary producers (phytoplankton, algae, plants) has been linked to functional trait continua (i.e. to major axes of phenotypic variation observed in inter-specific analyses of multiple traits). In contrast, the C-N-P stoichiometry of higher-level consumers remains less precisely quantified in many taxonomic groups. We show that significant links are observed between trait continua across trophic levels. In spite of recent advances, the future reciprocal feedbacks between key functional groups, biodiversity and ecosystem functions remain largely uncertain. The reported evidence, however, highlights the key role of stoichiometric traits and suggests the need of a progressive shift towards an ecosystemic and stoichiometric perspective in global biodiversity analyses. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Ecosystem management can mitigate vegetation shifts induced by climate change in African savannas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheiter, Simon; Savadogo, Patrice

2017-04-01

The welfare of people in the tropics and sub-tropics strongly depends on goods and services that ecosystems supply. Flows of these ecosystem services are strongly influenced by interactions between climate change and land use. A prominent example are savannas, covering approximately 20% of the Earth's land surface. Key ecosystem services in these areas are fuel wood for cooking and heating, food production and livestock. Changes in the structure and dynamics of savanna vegetation may strongly influence local people's living conditions, as well as the climate system and biogeochemical cycles. We used a dynamic vegetation model to explore interactive effects of climate and land use on the vegetation structure, distribution and carbon cycling of African savannas under current and future conditions. More specifically, we simulate long term impacts of fire management, grazing and fuel wood harvesting. The model projects that under future climate without human land use impacts, large savanna areas would shift towards more wood dominated vegetation due to CO2 fertilization effects and changes in water use efficiency. However, land use activities can mitigate climate change impacts on vegetation to maintain desired ecosystem states that ensure fluxes of important ecosystem services. We then use optimization algorithms to identify sustainable land use strategies that maximize the utility of people managing savannas while preserving a stable vegetation state. Our results highlight that the development of land use policy for tropical and sub-tropical areas needs to account for climate change impacts on vegetation.

Linking degradation status with ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Baho, Didier L.; Allen, Craig R.; Johnson, Richard K.

2015-01-01

Environmental change can cause regime shifts in ecosystems, potentially threatening ecosystem services. It is unclear if the degradation status of ecosystems correlates with their vulnerability to environmental change, and thus the risk of future regime shifts. We assessed resilience in acidified (degraded) and circumneutral (undegraded) lakes with long-term data (1988–2012), using time series modeling. We identified temporal frequencies in invertebrate assemblages, which identifies groups of species whose population dynamics vary at particular temporal scales. We also assessed species with stochastic dynamics, those whose population dynamics vary irregularly and unpredictably over time. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across the temporal scales identified, and in those species with stochastic dynamics, and assessed attributes hypothesized to contribute to resilience. Three patterns of temporal dynamics, consistent across study lakes, were identified in the invertebrates. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second and third patterns appeared unrelated to the environmental changes we monitored. Acidified and the circumneutral lakes shared similar levels and patterns of functional richness, evenness, diversity, and redundancy for species within and across the observed temporal scales and for stochastic species groups. These similar resilience characteristics suggest that both lake types did not differ in vulnerability to the environmental changes observed here. Although both lake types appeared equally vulnerable in this study, our approach demonstrates how assessing systemic vulnerability by quantifying ecological resilience can help address uncertainty in predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change across ecosystems.

Drought-induced vegetation shifts in terrestrial ecosystems: The key role of regeneration dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi; Lloret, Francisco

2016-09-01

Ongoing climate change is modifying climatic conditions worldwide, with a trend towards drier conditions in most regions. Vegetation will respond to these changes, eventually adjusting to the new climate. It is unclear, however, how close different ecosystems are to climate-related tipping points and, thus, how dramatic these vegetation changes will be in the short- to mid-term, given the existence of strong stabilizing processes. Here, we review the published evidence for recent drought-induced vegetation shifts worldwide, addressing the following questions: (i) what are the necessary conditions for vegetation shifts to occur? (ii) How much evidence of drought-induced vegetation shifts do we have at present and where are they occurring? (iii) What are the main processes that favor/oppose the occurrence of shifts at different ecological scales? (iv) What are the complications in detecting and attributing drought-induced vegetation shifts? (v) What ecological factors can interact with drought to promote shifts or stability? We propose a demographic framework to classify the likely outcome of instances of drought-induced mortality, based upon the survival of adults of potential replacement species and the regeneration of both formerly dominant affected species and potential replacement species. Out of 35 selected case studies only eight were clearly consistent with the occurrence of a vegetation shift (species or biome shift), whereas three corresponded to self-replacements in which the affected, formerly dominant species was able to regenerate after suffering drought-induced mortality. The other 24 cases were classified as uncertain, either due to lack of information or, more commonly, because the initially affected and potential replacement species all showed similar levels of regeneration after the mortality event. Overall, potential vegetation transitions were consistent with more drought-resistant species replacing less resistant ones. However, almost half (44%) of the vegetation trajectories associated to the 35 case studies implied no change in the functional type of vegetation. Of those cases implying a functional type change, the most common one was a transition from tree- to shrub-dominated communities. Overall, evidence for drought-induced vegetation shifts is still limited. In this context, we stress the need for improved, long-term monitoring programs with sufficient temporal resolution. We also highlight the critical importance of regeneration in determining the outcome of drought-induced mortality events, and the crucial role of co-drivers, particularly management. Finally, we illustrate how placing vegetation shifts in a biogeographical and successional context may support progress in our understanding of the underlying processes and the ecosystem-level implications.

Potential Interference Among The Campanian Ignimbrite Eruption, Heinrich Event 4 and The Middle/upper Palaeolithic Shift In Late Pleistocene Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedele, F. G.; Giaccio, B.; Isaia, R.; Orsi, G.

The Campanian Ignimbrite (CI) eruption (Phlegraean Fields Caldera) was the largest volcanic eruption in the Greater Mediterranean area over the past 200 Ka (at least 150 km3 DRE). Ash layers correlated with CI have been found in sediments of the eastern Mediterranean Sea (Y5) and East Europe, from Italy to the former USSR. The recent dating of the CI eruption at 39.3 Ka BP draws attention to the coincidence be- tween this volcanic catastrophe and the suite of coeval biocultural modifications in Old World prehistory, here termed the European Late Pleistocene shift (ELPS). These included the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic cultural transition and the supposed change from Neanderthal to "modern" Homo sapiens anatomy, still a subject of sustained de- bate. The first results of our investigations show that: (1) at several archaeological sites of peninsular Italy a distinct tephra layer corresponding to the CI is regularly interbedded between the last documented Middle Palaeolithic and the earliest appear- ance of unquestionable Upper Palaeolithic assemblages; (2) at the same sites the CI tephra coincides with a interruption of occupation, several millennia long; (3) in the GISP2 Greenland ice-core, Lago Grande di Monticchio (southern Italy) lacustrine se- quences, and KET 8003 Tyrrhenian sea-core, a large volcanogenic sulfate signal (375 ppb, at 40,062 yr BP) to be correlated with the CI eruption and/or CI tephra layer occurs just before a sharp climatic shift which coincides with the onset of Heinrich event 4 (HE4). The concurrence of the CI eruption, Palaeolithic site abandonment and beginning of HE4 suggests that the overlapping of CI eruption and HE4 climatic im- pacts induced ecosystem crisis on a fairly large scale - human systems included - and well beyond the direct-impact zone. Moreover, the occurrence of the CI eruption just before HE4 probably corroborates the positive climate-volcanism feedback supposed for other high magnitude eruptions (e.g. Toba, 74 Ka). Without obviously claiming for the CI an overall evolutionary relevance within the ELPS, on the available data we nevertheless suggest that it deserves careful consideration as a contributing factor to the regional expression - or re-orientation - of cultural and population change.

Comparative analysis of marine ecosystems: workshop on predator-prey interactions.

PubMed

Bailey, Kevin M; Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Hunsicker, Mary; Rindorf, Anna; Neuenfeldt, Stefan; Möllmann, Christian; Guichard, Frederic; Huse, Geir

2010-10-23

Climate and human influences on marine ecosystems are largely manifested by changes in predator-prey interactions. It follows that ecosystem-based management of the world's oceans requires a better understanding of food web relationships. An international workshop on predator-prey interactions in marine ecosystems was held at the Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA on 16-18 March 2010. The meeting brought together scientists from diverse fields of expertise including theoretical ecology, animal behaviour, fish and seabird ecology, statistics, fisheries science and ecosystem modelling. The goals of the workshop were to critically examine the methods of scaling-up predator-prey interactions from local observations to systems, the role of shifting ecological processes with scale changes, and the complexity and organizational structure in trophic interactions.

Sagebrush steppe and pinyon-juniper ecosystems: effects of changing fire regimes, increased fuel loads, and invasive species

Treesearch

Jeanne C. Chambers; E. Durant McArthur; Steven B. Monson; Susan E. Meyer; Nancy L. Shaw; Robin J. Tausch; Robert R. Blank; Steve Bunting; Richard R. Miller; Mike Pellant; Bruce A. Roundy; Scott C. Walker; Alison Whittaker

2005-01-01

Pinyon-juniper woodlands and Wyoming big sagebrush ecosystems have undergone major changes in vegetation structure and composition since settlement by European Americans. These changes are resulting in dramatic shifts in fire frequency, size and severity. Effective management of these systems has been hindered by lack of information on: (1) presettlement fire regimes...

Beyond urban legends: an emerging framework of urban ecology, as illustrated by the Baltimore Ecosystem Study

Treesearch

Steward T.A. Pickett; Mary L. Cadenasso; J. Morgan Grove; Peter M. Groffman; Lawrence E. Band; Christopher G. Boone; William R., Jr. Burch; Susan B. Grimmond; John Hom; Jennifer C. Jenkins; Neely L. Law; Charles H. Nilon; Richard V. Pouyat; Katalin Szlavecz; Paige S. Warren; Matthew A. Wilson

2008-01-01

The emerging discipline of urban ecology is shifting focus from ecological processes embedded within cities to integrative studies of large urban areas as biophysical-social complexes. Yet this discipline lacks a theory. Results from the Baltimore Ecosystem Study, part of the Long Term Ecological Research Network, expose new assumptions and test existing assumptions...

The History of New Perspectives and Ecosystem Management

Treesearch

F. Dale Robertson

2004-01-01

Abstract - Arkansas occupies a unique and important place in the history of New Perspectives and Ecosystem Management. An historic visit to the Ouachita National Forest by Senator David Pryor (D-Arkansas) in August 1990, thereafter called the walk in the woods, served as an opportunity to shift the Ouachita’s style of management in a manner that has...

Season mediates herbivore effects on litter and soil microbial abundance and activity in a semi-arid woodland

Treesearch

Aimee T. Classen; Steven T. Overby; Stephen C. Hart; George W. Koch; Thomas G. Whitham

2007-01-01

Herbivores can directly impact ecosystem function by altering litter quality of an ecosystem or indirectly by shifting the composition of microbial communities that mediate nutrient processes. We examined the effects of tree susceptibility and resistance to herbivory on litter microarthropod and soil microbial communities to test the general hypothesis that herbivore...

Geospatial Analysis of Climate-Related Changes in North American Arctic Ecosystems and Implications for Terrestrial Flora and Fauna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amirazodi, S.; Griffin, R.

2016-12-01

Climate change induces range shifts among many terrestrial species in Arctic regions. At best, warming often forces poleward migration if a stable environment is to be maintained. At worst, marginal ecosystems may disappear entirely without a contiguous shift allowing migratory escape to similar environs. These changing migration patterns and poleward range expansion push species into higher latitudes where ecosystems are less stable and more sensitive to change. This project focuses on ecosystem geography and interspecies relationships and interactions by analyzing seasonality and changes over time in variables including the following: temperature, precipitation, vegetation, physical boundaries, population demographics, permafrost, sea ice, and food and water availability. Publicly available data from remote sensing platforms are used throughout, and processed with both commercially available and open sourced GIS tools. This analysis describes observed range changes for selected North American species, and attempts to provide insight into the causes and effects of these phenomena. As the responses to climate change are complex and varied, the goal is to produce the aforementioned results in an easily understood set of geospatial representations to better support decision making regarding conservation prioritization and enable adaptive responses and mitigation strategies.

Using networks to detect regime changes in aquatic communities across nutrient gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taranu, Z. E.

2015-12-01

Networks capture links or interactions between organisms within ecological webs. When an environmental stress occurs, rapid changes in ecosystem state are expected in food webs with highly connected networks and functionally redundant species. These networks can dissipate local disturbances quickly and provide resistance to change at first until a threshold is reached, at which point, a critical transition occurs (nodes shift in synchrony). In contrast, in low connectivity (modular) heterogeneous networks, the response in ecosystem state to an environmental stressor is gradual. Given that these ecosystem-level shifts can be difficult to predict, hard to reverse and can have undesirable consequences, there is considerable interest in identifying what type of response (gradual vs. hysteresis) is most likely in nature. In this work, we thus aimed to test for the support for a bifurcated response in aquatic ecosystem across a landscape of human impact and track which of the above scenarios was most common. More specifically, using the US EPA National Lake Assessment water quality dataset (2007 sampling), we quantified differences in food-web structures across a spatial gradient of human impact (eutrophication). Preliminary results indicate that certain network properties vary nonlinearly with respect to nutrient enrichment.

Regime Shift in Sandy Beach Microbial Communities following Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Remediation Efforts

PubMed Central

Engel, Annette Summers; Gupta, Axita A.

2014-01-01

Sandy beaches support a wide variety of underappreciated biodiversity that is critical to coastal ecosystems. Prior to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the diversity and function of supratidal beach sediment microbial communities along Gulf of Mexico coastlines were not well understood. As such, it was unclear if microbial community compositional changes would occur following exposure to beached oil, if indigenous communities could biodegrade oil, or how cleanup efforts, such as sand washing and sediment redistribution, would impact microbial ecosystem resiliency. Transects perpendicular to the shoreline were sampled from public beaches on Grand Isle, Louisiana, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, over one year. Prior to oil coming onshore, elevated levels of bacteria associated with fecal contamination were detected (e.g., Enterobacteriales and Campylobacterales). Over time, significant shifts within major phyla were identified (e.g., Proteobacteria, Firmicutes, Actinobacteria) and fecal indicator groups were replaced by taxa affiliated with open-ocean and marine systems (e.g., Oceanospirillales, Rhodospirillales, and Rhodobacterales). These new bacterial groups included putative hydrocarbon degraders, similar to those identified near the oil plume offshore. Shifts in the microbial community composition strongly correlated to more poorly sorted sediment and grain size distributional changes. Natural oceanographic processes could not account for the disrupted sediment, especially from the backshore well above the maximum high-tide levels recorded at these sites. Sand washing and tilling occurred on both open beaches from August through at least December 2010, which were mechanisms that could replace fecal indicator groups with open-ocean groups. Consequently, remediation efforts meant to return beaches to pre-spill compositions caused a regime shift that may have added potential ecosystem function, like hydrocarbon degradation, to the sediment. Future research will need to assess the persistence and impact of the newly formed microbial communities to the overall sandy beach ecosystems. PMID:25036744

Ecosystem state shifts during long-term development of an Amazonian peatland.

PubMed

Swindles, Graeme T; Morris, Paul J; Whitney, Bronwen; Galloway, Jennifer M; Gałka, Mariusz; Gallego-Sala, Angela; Macumber, Andrew L; Mullan, Donal; Smith, Mark W; Amesbury, Matthew J; Roland, Thomas P; Sanei, Hamed; Patterson, R Timothy; Sanderson, Nicole; Parry, Lauren; Charman, Dan J; Lopez, Omar; Valderamma, Elvis; Watson, Elizabeth J; Ivanovic, Ruza F; Valdes, Paul J; Turner, T Edward; Lähteenoja, Outi

2018-02-01

The most carbon (C)-dense ecosystems of Amazonia are areas characterized by the presence of peatlands. However, Amazonian peatland ecosystems are poorly understood and are threatened by human activities. Here, we present an investigation into long-term ecohydrological controls on C accumulation in an Amazonian peat dome. This site is the oldest peatland yet discovered in Amazonia (peat initiation ca. 8.9 ka BP), and developed in three stages: (i) peat initiated in an abandoned river channel with open water and aquatic plants; (ii) inundated forest swamp; and (iii) raised peat dome (since ca. 3.9 ka BP). Local burning occurred at least three times in the past 4,500 years. Two phases of particularly rapid C accumulation (ca. 6.6-6.1 and ca. 4.9-3.9 ka BP), potentially resulting from increased net primary productivity, were seemingly driven by drier conditions associated with widespread drought events. The association of drought phases with major ecosystem state shifts (open water wetland-forest swamp-peat dome) suggests a potential climatic control on the developmental trajectory of this tropical peatland. A third drought phase centred on ca. 1.8-1.1 ka BP led to markedly reduced C accumulation and potentially a hiatus during the peat dome stage. Our results suggest that future droughts may lead to phases of rapid C accumulation in some inundated tropical peat swamps, although this can lead ultimately to a shift to ombrotrophy and a subsequent return to slower C accumulation. Conversely, in ombrotrophic peat domes, droughts may lead to reduced C accumulation or even net loss of peat. Increased surface wetness at our site in recent decades may reflect a shift towards a wetter climate in western Amazonia. Amazonian peatlands represent important carbon stores and habitats, and are important archives of past climatic and ecological information. They should form key foci for conservation efforts. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effects of land cover and land use change on the contemporary carbon balance of the arctic and boreal terrestrial ecosystems of northern Eurasia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayes, Daniel J.; McGuire, A. David; Kicklighter, David W.; Burnside , Todd J.; Melillo, Jerry M.

2010-01-01

Recent changes in climate, disturbance regimes and land use and management systems in Northern Eurasia have the potential to disrupt the terrestrial sink of atmospheric CO2 in a way that accelerates global climate change. To determine the recent trends in the carbon balance of the arctic and boreal ecosystems of this region, we performed a retrospective analysis of terrestrial carbon dynamics across northern Eurasia over a recent 10-year period using a terrestrial biogeochemical process model. The results of the simulations suggest a shift in direction of the net flux from the terrestrial sink of earlier decades to a net source on the order of 45 Tg C year−1between 1997 and 2006. The simulation framework and subsequent analyses presented in this study attribute this shift to a large loss of carbon from boreal forest ecosystems, which experienced a trend of decreasing precipitation and a large area burned during this time period.

The global susceptibility of coastal forage fish to competition by large jellyfish.

PubMed

Schnedler-Meyer, Nicolas Azaña; Mariani, Patrizio; Kiørboe, Thomas

2016-11-16

Competition between large jellyfish and forage fish for zooplankton prey is both a possible cause of jellyfish increases and a concern for the management of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Identifying principal factors affecting this competition is therefore important for marine management, but the lack of both good quality data and a robust theoretical framework have prevented general global analyses. Here, we present a general mechanistic food web model that considers fundamental differences in feeding modes and predation pressure between fish and jellyfish. The model predicts forage fish dominance at low primary production, and a shift towards jellyfish with increasing productivity, turbidity and fishing. We present an index of global ecosystem susceptibility to shifts in fish-jellyfish dominance that compares well with data on jellyfish distributions and trends. The results are a step towards better understanding the processes that govern jellyfish occurrences globally and highlight the advantage of considering feeding traits in ecosystem models. © 2016 The Author(s).

Shift in fire-ecosystems and weather changes

Treesearch

Bongani Finiza

2013-01-01

During recent decades too much focus fell on fire suppression and fire engineering methods. Little attention has been given to understanding the shift in the changing fire weather resulting from the global change in weather patterns. Weather change have gradually changed the way vegetation cover respond to fire occurrence and brought about changes in fire behavior and...

Climate constrains lake community and ecosystem responses to introduced predators

PubMed Central

Symons, C. C.; Shurin, J. B.

2016-01-01

Human activities have resulted in rising temperatures and the introduction or extirpation of top predators worldwide. Both processes generate cascading impacts throughout food webs and can jeopardize important ecosystem services. We examined the impact of fish stocking on communities and ecosystems in California mountain lakes across an elevation (temperature and dissolved organic carbon) gradient to determine how trophic cascades and ecosystem function vary with climate. Here, we show that the impact of fish on the pelagic consumer-to-producer biomass ratio strengthened at low elevation, while invertebrate community composition and benthic ecosystem rates (periphyton production and litter decomposition) were most influenced by predators at high elevation. A warming climate may therefore alter the stability of lake ecosystems by shifting the strength of top-down control by introduced predators over food web structure and function.

Tree range expansion in eastern North America fails to keep pace with climate warming at northern range limits.

PubMed

Sittaro, Fabian; Paquette, Alain; Messier, Christian; Nock, Charles A

2017-08-01

Rising global temperatures are suggested to be drivers of shifts in tree species ranges. The resulting changes in community composition may negatively impact forest ecosystem function. However, long-term shifts in tree species ranges remain poorly documented. We test for shifts in the northern range limits of 16 temperate tree species in Quebec, Canada, using forest inventory data spanning three decades, 15° of longitude and 7° of latitude. Range shifts were correlated with climate warming and dispersal traits to understand potential mechanisms underlying changes. Shifts were calculated as the change in the 95th percentile of latitudinal occurrence between two inventory periods (1970-1978, 2000-2012) and for two life stages: saplings and adults. We also examined sapling and adult range offsets within each inventory, and changes in the offset through time. Tree species ranges shifted predominantly northward, although species responses varied. As expected shifts were greater for tree saplings, 0.34 km yr -1 , than for adults, 0.13 km yr -1 . Range limits were generally further north for adults compared to saplings, but the difference diminished through time, consistent with patterns observed for range shifts within each life stage. This suggests caution should be exercised when interpreting geographic range offsets between life stages as evidence of range shifts in the absence of temporal data. Species latitudinal velocities were on average <50% of the velocity required to equal the spatial velocity of climate change and were mostly unrelated to dispersal traits. Finally, our results add to the body of evidence suggesting tree species are mostly limited in their capacity to track climate warming, supporting concerns that warming will negatively impact the functioning of forest ecosystems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of differential habitat warming on complex communities.

PubMed

Tunney, Tyler D; McCann, Kevin S; Lester, Nigel P; Shuter, Brian J

2014-06-03

Food webs unfold across a mosaic of micro and macro habitats, with each habitat coupled by mobile consumers that behave in response to local environmental conditions. Despite this fundamental characteristic of nature, research on how climate change will affect whole ecosystems has overlooked (i) that climate warming will generally affect habitats differently and (ii) that mobile consumers may respond to this differential change in a manner that may fundamentally alter the energy pathways that sustain ecosystems. This reasoning suggests a powerful, but largely unexplored, avenue for studying the impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. Here, we use lake ecosystems to show that predictable behavioral adjustments to local temperature differentials govern a fundamental structural shift across 54 food webs. Data show that the trophic pathways from basal resources to a cold-adapted predator shift toward greater reliance on a cold-water refuge habitat, and food chain length increases, as air temperatures rise. Notably, cold-adapted predator behavior may substantially drive this decoupling effect across the climatic range in our study independent of warmer-adapted species responses (for example, changes in near-shore species abundance and predator absence). Such modifications reflect a flexible food web architecture that requires more attention from climate change research. The trophic pathway restructuring documented here is expected to alter biomass accumulation, through the regulation of energy fluxes to predators, and thus potentially threatens ecosystem sustainability in times of rapid environmental change.

Selective predation and productivity jointly drive complex behavior in host-parasite systems.

PubMed

Hall, Spencer R; Duffy, Meghan A; Cáceres, Carla E

2005-01-01

Successful invasion of a parasite into a host population and resulting host-parasite dynamics can depend crucially on other members of a host's community such as predators. We do not fully understand how predation intensity and selectivity shape host-parasite dynamics because the interplay between predator density, predator foraging behavior, and ecosystem productivity remains incompletely explored. By modifying a standard susceptible-infected model, we show how productivity can modulate complex behavior induced by saturating and selective foraging behavior of predators in an otherwise stable host-parasite system. When predators strongly prefer parasitized hosts, the host-parasite system can oscillate, but predators can also create alternative stable states, Allee effects, and catastrophic extinction of parasites. In the latter three cases, parasites have difficulty invading and/or persisting in ecosystems. When predators are intermediately selective, these more complex behaviors become less important, but the host-parasite system can switch from stable to oscillating and then back to stable states along a gradient of predator control. Surprisingly, at higher productivity, predators that neutrally select or avoid parasitized hosts can catalyze extinction of both hosts and parasites. Thus, synergy between two enemies can end disastrously for the host. Such diverse outcomes underscore the crucial importance of the community and ecosystem context in which host-parasite interactions occur.

Colorado River Floods, Droughts, and Shrimp Fishing in the Upper Gulf of California, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

All, John D.

2006-01-01

Accurate procedures that measure hydrologic variability would have great value for evaluating ecosystem impacts of upstream water use in the Colorado River Basin. Many local extractive income-based stakeholders rely directly or indirectly on ecosystem health and are adversely affected when the river does not flow. This study focuses on the impact of little or no Colorado River flow on the Mexican shrimp industry. Although there have been complaints that U.S. diversions of Colorado River flow have greatly impaired the shrimp fishery, this research demonstrates that freshwater rarely reaches the Gulf even during times of flooding, and that other factors such as overfishing may influence the instability of shrimp populations. Advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) satellite imagery was used to assess water volumes diverted away from the channel of the Colorado River and ultimately the Gulf of California during flooding periods. Analysis of data demonstrated that little freshwater actually reaches the Gulf even during floods because of its diversion into a large dry lake bed basin known as Laguna Salada. Fuller use of the Colorado River throughout its entire course to the sea is possible and could benefit a large cohort of users without catastrophic habitat destruction in delta ecosystems. Reconstruction of a natural earthen berm, as proposed by Ducks Unlimited, would maximize the use of floodwaters for ecosystem benefits. These findings have profound implications for local economic activities dependent on hydrologic resources in the Colorado River Delta and Upper Gulf.

Colorado river floods, droughts, and shrimp fishing in the upper gulf of California, Mexico.

PubMed

All, John D

2006-01-01

Accurate procedures that measure hydrologic variability would have great value for evaluating ecosystem impacts of upstream water use in the Colorado River Basin. Many local extractive income-based stakeholders rely directly or indirectly on ecosystem health and are adversely affected when the river does not flow. This study focuses on the impact of little or no Colorado River flow on the Mexican shrimp industry. Although there have been complaints that U.S. diversions of Colorado River flow have greatly impaired the shrimp fishery, this research demonstrates that freshwater rarely reaches the Gulf even during times of flooding, and that other factors such as overfishing may influence the instability of shrimp populations. Advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) satellite imagery was used to assess water volumes diverted away from the channel of the Colorado River and ultimately the Gulf of California during flooding periods. Analysis of data demonstrated that little freshwater actually reaches the Gulf even during floods because of its diversion into a large dry lake bed basin known as Laguna Salada. Fuller use of the Colorado River throughout its entire course to the sea is possible and could benefit a large cohort of users without catastrophic habitat destruction in delta ecosystems. Reconstruction of a natural earthen berm, as proposed by Ducks Unlimited, would maximize the use of floodwaters for ecosystem benefits. These findings have profound implications for local economic activities dependent on hydrologic resources in the Colorado River Delta and Upper Gulf.

Ecosystem Services and Opportunity Costs Shift Spatial Priorities for Conserving Forest Biodiversity

PubMed Central

Schröter, Matthias; Rusch, Graciela M.; Barton, David N.; Blumentrath, Stefan; Nordén, Björn

2014-01-01

Inclusion of spatially explicit information on ecosystem services in conservation planning is a fairly new practice. This study analyses how the incorporation of ecosystem services as conservation features can affect conservation of forest biodiversity and how different opportunity cost constraints can change spatial priorities for conservation. We created spatially explicit cost-effective conservation scenarios for 59 forest biodiversity features and five ecosystem services in the county of Telemark (Norway) with the help of the heuristic optimisation planning software, Marxan with Zones. We combined a mix of conservation instruments where forestry is either completely (non-use zone) or partially restricted (partial use zone). Opportunity costs were measured in terms of foregone timber harvest, an important provisioning service in Telemark. Including a number of ecosystem services shifted priority conservation sites compared to a case where only biodiversity was considered, and increased the area of both the partial (+36.2%) and the non-use zone (+3.2%). Furthermore, opportunity costs increased (+6.6%), which suggests that ecosystem services may not be a side-benefit of biodiversity conservation in this area. Opportunity cost levels were systematically changed to analyse their effect on spatial conservation priorities. Conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services trades off against timber harvest. Currently designated nature reserves and landscape protection areas achieve a very low proportion (9.1%) of the conservation targets we set in our scenario, which illustrates the high importance given to timber production at present. A trade-off curve indicated that large marginal increases in conservation target achievement are possible when the budget for conservation is increased. Forty percent of the maximum hypothetical opportunity costs would yield an average conservation target achievement of 79%. PMID:25393951

Ecosystem services and opportunity costs shift spatial priorities for conserving forest biodiversity.

PubMed

Schröter, Matthias; Rusch, Graciela M; Barton, David N; Blumentrath, Stefan; Nordén, Björn

2014-01-01

Inclusion of spatially explicit information on ecosystem services in conservation planning is a fairly new practice. This study analyses how the incorporation of ecosystem services as conservation features can affect conservation of forest biodiversity and how different opportunity cost constraints can change spatial priorities for conservation. We created spatially explicit cost-effective conservation scenarios for 59 forest biodiversity features and five ecosystem services in the county of Telemark (Norway) with the help of the heuristic optimisation planning software, Marxan with Zones. We combined a mix of conservation instruments where forestry is either completely (non-use zone) or partially restricted (partial use zone). Opportunity costs were measured in terms of foregone timber harvest, an important provisioning service in Telemark. Including a number of ecosystem services shifted priority conservation sites compared to a case where only biodiversity was considered, and increased the area of both the partial (+36.2%) and the non-use zone (+3.2%). Furthermore, opportunity costs increased (+6.6%), which suggests that ecosystem services may not be a side-benefit of biodiversity conservation in this area. Opportunity cost levels were systematically changed to analyse their effect on spatial conservation priorities. Conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services trades off against timber harvest. Currently designated nature reserves and landscape protection areas achieve a very low proportion (9.1%) of the conservation targets we set in our scenario, which illustrates the high importance given to timber production at present. A trade-off curve indicated that large marginal increases in conservation target achievement are possible when the budget for conservation is increased. Forty percent of the maximum hypothetical opportunity costs would yield an average conservation target achievement of 79%.

Seasonal variations in methane fluxes in response to summer warming and leaf litter addition in a subarctic heath ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedersen, Emily Pickering; Elberling, Bo; Michelsen, Anders

2017-08-01

Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas controlled by both biotic and abiotic processes. Few studies have investigated CH4 fluxes in subarctic heath ecosystems, and climate change-induced shifts in CH4 flux and the overall carbon budget are therefore largely unknown. Hence, there is an urgent need for long-term in situ experiments allowing for the study of ecosystem processes over time scales relevant to environmental change. Here we present in situ CH4 and CO2 flux measurements from a wet heath ecosystem in northern Sweden subjected to 16 years of manipulations, including summer warming with open-top chambers, birch leaf litter addition, and the combination thereof. Throughout the snow-free season, the ecosystem was a net sink of CH4 and CO2 (CH4 -0.27 mg C m-2 d-1; net ecosystem exchange -1827 mg C m-2 d-1), with highest CH4 uptake rates (-0.70 mg C m-2 d-1) during fall. Warming enhanced net CO2 flux, while net CH4 flux was governed by soil moisture. Litter addition and the combination with warming significantly increased CH4 uptake rates, explained by a pronounced soil drying effect of up to 32% relative to ambient conditions. Both warming and litter addition also increased the seasonal average concentration of dissolved organic carbon in the soil. The site was a carbon sink with a net uptake of 60 g C m-2 over the snow-free season. However, warming reduced net carbon uptake by 77%, suggesting that this ecosystem type might shift from snow-free season sink to source with increasing summer temperatures.

The short term effects of preoperative neuroscience education for lumbar radiculopathy: A case series

PubMed Central

Louw, Adriaan; Diener, Ina

2015-01-01

Background Recently a preoperative pain neuroscience education (NE) program was developed for lumbar surgery (LS) for radiculopathy as a means to decrease postoperative pain and disability. This study attempts to determine the short term effects, if any, of providing NE before surgery on patient outcomes. Methods A case series of 10 patients (female = 7) received preoperative one-on-one educational session by a physical therapist on the neuroscience of pain, accompanied by an evidence-based booklet, prior to LS for radiculopathy. Post-intervention data was gathered immediately after NE, as well as 1, 3 and 6 months following LS. Primary outcome measures were Pain Catastrophization Scale (PCS), forward flexion, straight leg raise (SLR) and beliefs regarding LS. Results Immediately following NE for LS for radiculopathy, all patients had lower PCS scores, with 5 patients exceeding the MDC score of 9.1 and 8 of the patients had PCS change scores exceeding the MDC by the 1, 3 and 6 month follow ups. Physical changes showed that fingertip-to-floor test in 6 patients had changes in beyond the MDC of 4.5 cm and 6 patients had changes in SLR beyond the MDC of 5.7°. The main finding, however, indicated a positive and more realistic shift in expectations regarding pain after the impending LS by all patients. Conclusions The results of the case series suggest that immediately after NE, patients scheduled for LS for radiculopathy had meaningful detectable changes in pain catastrophizing, fingertip-to-floor test, passive SLR and positive shifts in their beliefs about LS. PMID:26056626

Outbreaks by canopy-feeding geometrid moth cause state-dependent shifts in understorey plant communities.

PubMed

Karlsen, Stein Rune; Jepsen, Jane Uhd; Odland, Arvid; Ims, Rolf Anker; Elvebakk, Arve

2013-11-01

The increased spread of insect outbreaks is among the most severe impacts of climate warming predicted for northern boreal forest ecosystems. Compound disturbances by insect herbivores can cause sharp transitions between vegetation states with implications for ecosystem productivity and climate feedbacks. By analysing vegetation plots prior to and immediately after a severe and widespread outbreak by geometrid moths in the birch forest-tundra ecotone, we document a shift in forest understorey community composition in response to the moth outbreak. Prior to the moth outbreak, the plots divided into two oligotrophic and one eutrophic plant community. The moth outbreak caused a vegetation state shift in the two oligotrophic communities, but only minor changes in the eutrophic community. In the spatially most widespread communities, oligotrophic dwarf shrub birch forest, dominance by the allelopathic dwarf shrub Empetrum nigrum ssp. hermaphroditum, was effectively broken and replaced by a community dominated by the graminoid Avenella flexuosa, in a manner qualitatively similar to the effect of wild fires in E. nigrum communities in coniferous boreal forest further south. As dominance by E. nigrum is associated with retrogressive succession the observed vegetation state shift has widespread implications for ecosystem productivity on a regional scale. Our findings reveal that the impact of moth outbreaks on the northern boreal birch forest system is highly initial-state dependent, and that the widespread oligotrophic communities have a low resistance to such disturbances. This provides a case for the notion that climate impacts on arctic and northern boreal vegetation may take place most abruptly when conveyed by changed dynamics of irruptive herbivores.

Burning fire-prone Mediterranean shrublands: immediate changes in soil microbial community structure and ecosystem functions.

PubMed

Goberna, M; García, C; Insam, H; Hernández, M T; Verdú, M

2012-07-01

Wildfires subject soil microbes to extreme temperatures and modify their physical and chemical habitat. This might immediately alter their community structure and ecosystem functions. We burned a fire-prone shrubland under controlled conditions to investigate (1) the fire-induced changes in the community structure of soil archaea, bacteria and fungi by analysing 16S or 18S rRNA gene amplicons separated through denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis; (2) the physical and chemical variables determining the immediate shifts in the microbial community structure; and (3) the microbial drivers of the change in ecosystem functions related to biogeochemical cycling. Prokaryotes and eukaryotes were structured by the local environment in pre-fire soils. Fire caused a significant shift in the microbial community structure, biomass C, respiration and soil hydrolases. One-day changes in bacterial and fungal community structure correlated to the rise in total organic C and NO(3)(-)-N caused by the combustion of plant residues. In the following week, bacterial communities shifted further forced by desiccation and increasing concentrations of macronutrients. Shifts in archaeal community structure were unrelated to any of the 18 environmental variables measured. Fire-induced changes in the community structure of bacteria, rather than archaea or fungi, were correlated to the enhanced microbial biomass, CO(2) production and hydrolysis of C and P organics. This is the first report on the combined effects of fire on the three biological domains in soils. We concluded that immediately after fire the biogeochemical cycling in Mediterranean shrublands becomes less conservative through the increased microbial biomass, activity and changes in the bacterial community structure.

Projecting changes in Everglades soil biogeochemistry for carbon and other key elements, to possible 2060 climate and hydrologic scenarios.

PubMed

Orem, William; Newman, Susan; Osborne, Todd Z; Reddy, K Ramesh

2015-04-01

Based on previously published studies of elemental cycling in Everglades soils, we projected how soil biogeochemistry, specifically carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, sulfur, and mercury might respond to climate change scenarios projected for 2060 by the South Florida Water Management Model. Water budgets and stage hydrographs from this model with future scenarios of a 10% increased or decreased rainfall, a 1.5 °C rise in temperature and associated increase in evapotranspiration (ET) and a 0.5 m rise in sea level were used to predict resulting effects on soil biogeochemistry. Precipitation is a much stronger driver of soil biogeochemical processes than temperature, because of links among water cover, redox conditions, and organic carbon accumulation in soils. Under the 10% reduced rainfall scenario, large portions of the Everglades will experience dry down, organic soil oxidation, and shifts in soil redox that may dramatically alter biogeochemical processes. Lowering organic soil surface elevation may make portions of the Everglades more vulnerable to sea level rise. The 10% increased rainfall scenario, while potentially increasing phosphorus, sulfur, and mercury loading to the ecosystem, would maintain organic soil integrity and redox conditions conducive to normal wetland biogeochemical element cycling. Effects of increased ET will be similar to those of decreased precipitation. Temperature increases would have the effect of increasing microbial processes driving biogeochemical element cycling, but the effect would be much less than that of precipitation. The combined effects of decreased rainfall and increased ET suggest catastrophic losses in carbon- and organic-associated elements throughout the peat-based Everglades.

Projected tree species redistribution under climate change: Implications for ecosystem vulnerability across protected areas in the eastern United States

Treesearch

Scott G. Zolkos; Patrick Jantz; Tina Cormier; Louis R. Iverson; Daniel W. McKenney; Scott J. Goetz

2015-01-01

The degree to which tree species will shift in response to climate change is uncertain yet critical to understand for assessing ecosystem vulnerability. We analyze results from recent studies that model potential tree species habitat across the eastern United States during the coming century. Our goals were to quantify and spatially analyze habitat projections and...

Climate change and special habitats in the Blue Mountains: Riparian areas, wetlands, and groundwater-dependent ecosystems [Chapter 7

Treesearch

Kathleen A. Dwire; Sabine Mellmann-Brown

2017-01-01

In the Blue Mountains, climate change is likely to have significant, long-term implications for freshwater resources, including riparian areas, wetlands (box 7.1), and groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs, box 7.2). Climate change is expected to cause a transition from snow to rain, resulting in diminished snowpack and shifts in streamflow to earlier in the season (...

Three centuries of dual pressure from land use and climate change on the biosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostberg, Sebastian; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Lucht, Wolfgang; Gerten, Dieter

2015-04-01

Human land use and anthropogenic climate change (CC) are placing mounting pressure on natural ecosystems worldwide, with impacts on biodiversity, water resources, nutrient and carbon cycles. Here, we present a quantitative macro-scale comparative analysis of the separate and joint dual impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and CC on the terrestrial biosphere during the last ca. 300 years, based on simulations with a dynamic global vegetation model and an aggregated metric of simultaneous biogeochemical, hydrological and vegetation-structural shifts. We find that by the beginning of the 21st century LULCC and CC have jointly caused major shifts on more than 90% of all areas now cultivated, corresponding to 26% of the land area. CC has exposed another 26% of natural ecosystems to moderate or major shifts. Within three centuries, the impact of LULCC on landscapes has increased 13-fold. Within just one century, CC effects have caught up with LULCC effects.

Soil Carbon Stocks in a Shifting Ecosystem; Climate Induced Migration of Mangroves into Salt Marsh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, L.; Osborne, T.; Feller, I. C.

2015-12-01

Across the globe, coastal wetland vegetation distributions are changing in response to climate change. The increase in global average surface temperature has already caused shifts in the structure and distribution of many ecological communities. In parts of the southeastern United States, increased winter temperatures have resulted in the poleward range expansion of mangroves at the expense of salt marsh habitat. Our work aims to document carbon storage in the salt marsh - mangrove ecotone and any potential changes in this reservoir that may ensue due to the shifting range of this habitat. Differences in SOM and C stocks along a latitudinal gradient on the east coast of Florida will be presented. The gradient studied spans 342 km and includes pure mangrove habitat, the salt marsh - mangrove ecotone, and pure salt marsh habitat.This latitudinal gradient gives us an exceptional opportunity to document and investigate ecosystem soil C modifications as mangroves transgress into salt marsh habitat due to climatic change.

A fish is not a fish: patterns in fatty acid composition of aquatic food may have had implications for hominin evolution.

PubMed

Joordens, Josephine C A; Kuipers, Remko S; Wanink, Jan H; Muskiet, Frits A J

2014-12-01

From c. 2 Ma (millions of years ago) onwards, hominin brain size and cognition increased in an unprecedented fashion. The exploitation of high-quality food resources, notably from aquatic ecosystems, may have been a facilitator or driver of this phenomenon. The aim of this study is to contribute to the ongoing debate on the possible role of aquatic resources in hominin evolution by providing a more detailed nutritional context. So far, the debate has focused on the relative importance of terrestrial versus aquatic resources while no distinction has been made between different types of aquatic resources. Here we show that Indian Ocean reef fish and eastern African lake fish yield on average similarly high amounts of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), and arachidonic acid (AA). Hence a shift from exploiting tropical marine to freshwater ecosystems (or vice versa) would entail no material difference in dietary long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid (LC-PUFA) availability. However, a shift to marine ecosystems would likely mean a major increase in access to brain-selective micronutrients such as iodine. Fatty fish from marine temperate/cold waters yield twice as much DHA and four times as much EPA as tropical fish, demonstrating that a latitudinal shift in exploitation of African coastal ecosystems could constitute a significant difference in LC-PUFA availability with possible implications for brain development and functioning. We conclude that exploitation of aquatic food resources could have facilitated the initial moderate hominin brain increase as observed in fossils dated to c. 2 Ma, but not the exceptional brain increase in later stages of hominin evolution. We propose that the significant expansion in hominin brain size and cognition later on may have been aided by strong directional selecting forces such as runaway sexual selection of intelligence, and nutritionally supported by exploitation of high-quality food resources in stable and productive aquatic ecosystems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Eucalypts face increasing climate stress

PubMed Central

Butt, Nathalie; Pollock, Laura J; McAlpine, Clive A

2013-01-01

Global climate change is already impacting species and ecosystems across the planet. Trees, although long-lived, are sensitive to changes in climate, including climate extremes. Shifts in tree species' distributions will influence biodiversity and ecosystem function at scales ranging from local to landscape; dry and hot regions will be especially vulnerable. The Australian continent has been especially susceptible to climate change with extreme heat waves, droughts, and flooding in recent years, and this climate trajectory is expected to continue. We sought to understand how climate change may impact Australian ecosystems by modeling distributional changes in eucalypt species, which dominate or codominate most forested ecosystems across Australia. We modeled a representative sample of Eucalyptus and Corymbia species (n = 108, or 14% of all species) using newly available Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, and bioclimatic and substrate predictor variables. We compared current, 2025, 2055, and 2085 distributions. Overall, Eucalyptus and Corymbia species in the central desert and open woodland regions will be the most affected, losing 20% of their climate space under the mid-range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. The least affected species, in eastern Australia, are likely to lose 10% of their climate space under the mid-range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. Range shifts will be lateral as well as polewards, and these east–west transitions will be more significant, reflecting the strong influence of precipitation rather than temperature changes in subtropical and midlatitudes. These net losses, and the direction of shifts and contractions in range, suggest that many species in the eastern and southern seaboards will be pushed toward the continental limit and that large tracts of currently treed landscapes, especially in the continental interior, will change dramatically in terms of species composition and ecosystem structure. PMID:24455132

Humpback whale diets respond to variance in ocean climate and ecosystem conditions in the California Current.

PubMed

Fleming, Alyson H; Clark, Casey T; Calambokidis, John; Barlow, Jay

2016-03-01

Large, migratory predators are often cited as sentinel species for ecosystem processes and climate-related changes, but their utility as indicators is dependent upon an understanding of their response to environmental variability. Documentation of the links between climate variability, ecosystem change and predator dynamics is absent for most top predators. Identifying species that may be useful indicators and elucidating these mechanistic links provides insight into current ecological dynamics and may inform predictions of future ecosystem responses to climatic change. We examine humpback whale response to environmental variability through stable isotope analysis of diet over a dynamic 20-year period (1993-2012) in the California Current System (CCS). Humpback whale diets captured two major shifts in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the CCS. Isotopic signatures reflect a diet dominated by krill during periods characterized by positive phases of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), cool sea surface temperature (SST), strong upwelling and high krill biomass. In contrast, humpback whale diets are dominated by schooling fish when the NPGO is negative, SST is warmer, seasonal upwelling is delayed and anchovy and sardine populations display increased biomass and range expansion. These findings demonstrate that humpback whales trophically respond to ecosystem shifts, and as a result, their foraging behavior is a synoptic indicator of oceanographic and ecological conditions across the CCS. Multi-decadal examination of these sentinel species thus provides insight into biological consequences of interannual climate fluctuations, fundamental to advancing ecosystem predictions related to global climate change. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Global change effects on humid tropical forests: Evidence for biogeochemical and biodiversity shifts at an ecosystem scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cusack, Daniela F.; Karpman, Jason; Ashdown, Daniel; Cao, Qian; Ciochina, Mark; Halterman, Sarah; Lydon, Scott; Neupane, Avishesh

2016-09-01

Government and international agencies have highlighted the need to focus global change research efforts on tropical ecosystems. However, no recent comprehensive review exists synthesizing humid tropical forest responses across global change factors, including warming, decreased precipitation, carbon dioxide fertilization, nitrogen deposition, and land use/land cover changes. This paper assesses research across spatial and temporal scales for the tropics, including modeling, field, and controlled laboratory studies. The review aims to (1) provide a broad understanding of how a suite of global change factors are altering humid tropical forest ecosystem properties and biogeochemical processes; (2) assess spatial variability in responses to global change factors among humid tropical regions; (3) synthesize results from across humid tropical regions to identify emergent trends in ecosystem responses; (4) identify research and management priorities for the humid tropics in the context of global change. Ecosystem responses covered here include plant growth, carbon storage, nutrient cycling, biodiversity, and disturbance regime shifts. The review demonstrates overall negative effects of global change on all ecosystem properties, with the greatest uncertainty and variability in nutrient cycling responses. Generally, all global change factors reviewed, except for carbon dioxide fertilization, demonstrate great potential to trigger positive feedbacks to global warming via greenhouse gas emissions and biogeophysical changes that cause regional warming. This assessment demonstrates that effects of decreased rainfall and deforestation on tropical forests are relatively well understood, whereas the potential effects of warming, carbon dioxide fertilization, nitrogen deposition, and plant species invasions require more cross-site, mechanistic research to predict tropical forest responses at regional and global scales.

Scenic Vistas and the Changing Policy Landscape: Visualizing and Testing the Role of Visual Resources in Ecosystem Management

Treesearch

Robert G. Ribe; Edward T. Armstrong; Paul H. Gobster

2002-01-01

The Northwest Forest Plan applies a shift in policy to national forests in the Pacific Northwest, with implications for other public landscapes. This shift offers potentially strong scenic implications for areas that have historically emphasized clearcutting with little visual impact mitigation. These areas will now emphasize biocentric concerns and harvests formed...

Water, water everywhere: subtle shifts in soil saturation drive ecological function in coastal rain forests

Treesearch

Marie Oliver; David D' Amore

2015-01-01

New research reveals how topography, soil temperature, and subtle shifts in soil drainage are key drivers in ecosystem function in the coastal temperate rain forests of southeast Alaska and British Columbia. These studies, by Dave D'Amore and his colleagues, provide a better understanding of the influence of soil hydrology on dissolved organic carbon export and...

From food to pest: Conversion factors determine switches between ecosystem services and disservices.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Laura Vang; Christensen, Andreas E; Danielsen, Finn; Dawson, Neil; Martin, Adrian; Mertz, Ole; Sikor, Thomas; Thongmanivong, Sithong; Xaydongvanh, Pheang

2017-03-01

Ecosystem research focuses on goods and services, thereby ascribing beneficial values to the ecosystems. Depending on the context, however, outputs from ecosystems can be both positive and negative. We examined how provisioning services of wild animals and plants can switch between being services and disservices. We studied agricultural communities in Laos to illustrate when and why these switches take place. Government restrictions on land use combined with economic and cultural changes have created perceptions of rodents and plants as problem species in some communities. In other communities that are maintaining shifting cultivation practices, the very same taxa were perceived as beneficial. We propose conversion factors that in a given context can determine where an individual taxon is located along a spectrum from ecosystem service to disservice, when, and for whom. We argue that the omission of disservices in ecosystem service accounts may lead governments to direct investments at inappropriate targets.

A unifying theory for top-heavy ecosystem structure in the ocean.

PubMed

Woodson, C Brock; Schramski, John R; Joye, Samantha B

2018-01-02

Size generally dictates metabolic requirements, trophic level, and consequently, ecosystem structure, where inefficient energy transfer leads to bottom-heavy ecosystem structure and biomass decreases as individual size (or trophic level) increases. However, many animals deviate from simple size-based predictions by either adopting generalist predatory behavior, or feeding lower in the trophic web than predicted from their size. Here we show that generalist predatory behavior and lower trophic feeding at large body size increase overall biomass and shift ecosystems from a bottom-heavy pyramid to a top-heavy hourglass shape, with the most biomass accounted for by the largest animals. These effects could be especially dramatic in the ocean, where primary producers are the smallest components of the ecosystem. This approach makes it possible to explore and predict, in the past and in the future, the structure of ocean ecosystems without biomass extraction and other impacts.

Comparing pristine and depleted ecosystems: The Sørfjord, Norway versus the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada. Effects of intense fisheries on marine ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morissette, Lyne; Pedersen, Torstein; Nilsen, Marianne

2009-04-01

The Sørfjord, Norway, and the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada, are two sub-arctic ecosystems with similar trophic structure. However, in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, severe exploitation of groundfish stocks has lead to important shifts in the trophic structure. In the Sørfjord, the situation is different: fishing pressure is much lighter. Our hypothesis is that overexploitation leads to changes in the trophic structure and severely alters the resilience of ecosystems. Based on the same modelling approach ( Ecopath with Ecosim) the food web structure was compared, using different ecosystem indicators. Patterns of food web structure and trophodynamics were contrasted. Cod was the keystone species in both ecosystems, and forage fish were also important. Even after similar environmental changes in both ecosystems, and after a reduction of fishing pressure in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, there is no recovery of cod stocks in this ecosystem. In the Sørfjord, after different perturbations (but not from the fishery), the ecosystem seems to return to its equilibrium.

N-dimensional hypervolumes to study stability of complex ecosystems.

PubMed

Barros, Ceres; Thuiller, Wilfried; Georges, Damien; Boulangeat, Isabelle; Münkemüller, Tamara

2016-07-01

Although our knowledge on the stabilising role of biodiversity and on how it is affected by perturbations has greatly improved, we still lack a comprehensive view on ecosystem stability that is transversal to different habitats and perturbations. Hence, we propose a framework that takes advantage of the multiplicity of components of an ecosystem and their contribution to stability. Ecosystem components can range from species or functional groups, to different functional traits, or even the cover of different habitats in a landscape mosaic. We make use of n-dimensional hypervolumes to define ecosystem states and assess how much they shift after environmental changes have occurred. We demonstrate the value of this framework with a study case on the effects of environmental change on Alpine ecosystems. Our results highlight the importance of a multidimensional approach when studying ecosystem stability and show that our framework is flexible enough to be applied to different types of ecosystem components, which can have important implications for the study of ecosystem stability and transient dynamics. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Modulation Instability and Phase-Shifted Fermi-Pasta-Ulam Recurrence

PubMed Central

Kimmoun, O.; Hsu, H. C.; Branger, H.; Li, M. S.; Chen, Y. Y.; Kharif, C.; Onorato, M.; Kelleher, E. J. R.; Kibler, B.; Akhmediev, N.; Chabchoub, A.

2016-01-01

Instabilities are common phenomena frequently observed in nature, sometimes leading to unexpected catastrophes and disasters in seemingly normal conditions. One prominent form of instability in a distributed system is its response to a harmonic modulation. Such instability has special names in various branches of physics and is generally known as modulation instability (MI). The MI leads to a growth-decay cycle of unstable waves and is therefore related to Fermi-Pasta-Ulam (FPU) recurrence since breather solutions of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLSE) are known to accurately describe growth and decay of modulationally unstable waves in conservative systems. Here, we report theoretical, numerical and experimental evidence of the effect of dissipation on FPU cycles in a super wave tank, namely their shift in a determined order. In showing that ideal NLSE breather solutions can describe such dissipative nonlinear dynamics, our results may impact the interpretation of a wide range of new physics scenarios. PMID:27436005

Oak Ridge Flywheel Evaluation Laboratory test report on the Garrett AiResearch flywheel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steele, R. S., Jr.; Babelay, E. F.

1981-02-01

The graphite-epoxy-composite spokes began to splinter in four tip locations after the sixth balance run to 200 Hz (12,000 rpm). Testing was continued until a catastrophic failure was achieved. The spoke splintering did not appear to be a factor in the ultimate capability. Maximum stored energy was 1.16 kWh (4.17 MJ) at 74.6 Wh/kg (269 kJ/kg) at 463 rps (27,780 rpm). Ultimate speed was limited by a dynamic instability at 463 rps. Actual failure occurred in a braking mode at 390 rps. Other observations of dynamic behavior included the mass eccentricity shifting repeatably with speed at a rate of 0.051 mm in 170 Hz; this action was attributed to nonuniform flexing of the rim. A permanent balance shift of approximately 0.051 mm occurred, possibly indicating a slippage of the rim relative to the hub. Radiography shows that the rims realigned themselves.

Moderate forest disturbance as a stringent test for gap and big-leaf models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond-Lamberty, B.; Fisk, J. P.; Holm, J. A.; Bailey, V.; Bohrer, G.; Gough, C. M.

2015-01-01

Disturbance-induced tree mortality is a key factor regulating the carbon balance of a forest, but tree mortality and its subsequent effects are poorly represented processes in terrestrial ecosystem models. It is thus unclear whether models can robustly simulate moderate (non-catastrophic) disturbances, which tend to increase biological and structural complexity and are increasingly common in aging US forests. We tested whether three forest ecosystem models - Biome-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles), a classic big-leaf model, and the ZELIG and ED (Ecosystem Demography) gap-oriented models - could reproduce the resilience to moderate disturbance observed in an experimentally manipulated forest (the Forest Accelerated Succession Experiment in northern Michigan, USA, in which 38% of canopy dominants were stem girdled and compared to control plots). Each model was parameterized, spun up, and disturbed following similar protocols and run for 5 years post-disturbance. The models replicated observed declines in aboveground biomass well. Biome-BGC captured the timing and rebound of observed leaf area index (LAI), while ZELIG and ED correctly estimated the magnitude of LAI decline. None of the models fully captured the observed post-disturbance C fluxes, in particular gross primary production or net primary production (NPP). Biome-BGC NPP was correctly resilient but for the wrong reasons, and could not match the absolute observational values. ZELIG and ED, in contrast, exhibited large, unobserved drops in NPP and net ecosystem production. The biological mechanisms proposed to explain the observed rapid resilience of the C cycle are typically not incorporated by these or other models. It is thus an open question whether most ecosystem models will simulate correctly the gradual and less extensive tree mortality characteristic of moderate disturbances.

Moderate forest disturbance as a stringent test for gap and big-leaf models

DOE PAGES

Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Fisk, Justin P.; Holm, Jennifer; ...

2015-01-27

Disturbance-induced tree mortality is a key factor regulating the carbon balance of a forest, but tree mortality and its subsequent effects are poorly represented processes in terrestrial ecosystem models. It is thus unclear whether models can robustly simulate moderate (non-catastrophic) disturbances, which tend to increase biological and structural complexity and are increasingly common in aging US forests. We tested whether three forest ecosystem models – Biome-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles), a classic big-leaf model, and the ZELIG and ED (Ecosystem Demography) gap-oriented models – could reproduce the resilience to moderate disturbance observed in an experimentally manipulated forest (the Forest Accelerated Succession Experimentmore » in northern Michigan, USA, in which 38% of canopy dominants were stem girdled and compared to control plots). Each model was parameterized, spun up, and disturbed following similar protocols and run for 5 years post-disturbance. The models replicated observed declines in aboveground biomass well. Biome-BGC captured the timing and rebound of observed leaf area index (LAI), while ZELIG and ED correctly estimated the magnitude of LAI decline. None of the models fully captured the observed post-disturbance C fluxes, in particular gross primary production or net primary production (NPP). Biome-BGC NPP was correctly resilient but for the wrong reasons, and could not match the absolute observational values. ZELIG and ED, in contrast, exhibited large, unobserved drops in NPP and net ecosystem production. The biological mechanisms proposed to explain the observed rapid resilience of the C cycle are typically not incorporated by these or other models. It is thus an open question whether most ecosystem models will simulate correctly the gradual and less extensive tree mortality characteristic of moderate disturbances.« less

Organic-matter loading determines regime shifts and alternative states in an aquatic ecosystem.

PubMed

Sirota, Jennie; Baiser, Benjamin; Gotelli, Nicholas J; Ellison, Aaron M

2013-05-07

Slow changes in underlying state variables can lead to "tipping points," rapid transitions between alternative states ("regime shifts") in a wide range of complex systems. Tipping points and regime shifts routinely are documented retrospectively in long time series of observational data. Experimental induction of tipping points and regime shifts is rare, but could lead to new methods for detecting impending tipping points and forestalling regime shifts. By using controlled additions of detrital organic matter (dried, ground arthropod prey), we experimentally induced a shift from aerobic to anaerobic states in a miniature aquatic ecosystem: the self-contained pools that form in leaves of the carnivorous northern pitcher plant, Sarracenia purpurea. In unfed controls, the concentration of dissolved oxygen ([O2]) in all replicates exhibited regular diurnal cycles associated with daytime photosynthesis and nocturnal plant respiration. In low prey-addition treatments, the regular diurnal cycles of [O2] were disrupted, but a regime shift was not detected. In high prey-addition treatments, the variance of the [O2] time series increased until the system tipped from an aerobic to an anaerobic state. In these treatments, replicate [O2] time series predictably crossed a tipping point at ~45 h as [O2] was decoupled from diurnal cycles of photosynthesis and respiration. Increasing organic-matter loading led to predictable changes in [O2] dynamics, with high loading consistently driving the system past a well-defined tipping point. The Sarracenia microecosystem functions as a tractable experimental system in which to explore the forecasting and management of tipping points and alternative regimes.

Response of the Baltic and North Seas to river runoff from the Baltic watershed - Physical and biological changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hänninen, Jari; Vuorinen, Ilppo; Rajasilta, Marjut; Reid, Philip C.

2015-11-01

Selected Baltic Sea watershed River Runoff (BSRR) events during 1970-2000 were used as predictor in Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLIMMIX) for evidence of simultaneous changes/chain of events (including possible time lags) in some chemical, physical and biological variables in the Baltic and North Sea ecosystems. Our aim was to explore for climatic-based explanation for ecological regime shifts that were documented semi-simultaneously in both ecosystems. Certain similarities were identified in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea salinity, oxygen concentration, temperature and phyto- and zooplankton parameters. These findings suggest that BSRR events which originate in the Baltic Sea catchment area modify and contribute to large scale ecosystem changes not only in the Baltic Sea, but also in the adjacent parts of the North Sea. However, the Baltic Sea inter-annual and inter-decadal variabilities of physical and biological parameters are driven by direct atmospheric forcing, typically with a relatively short lag. In contrast, such changes in the North Sea are influenced by both local and direct atmospheric forcing, typically with a longer lag than in the Baltic, and a more regional, indirect forcing from changes in the North Atlantic. We suggest that this interactive system partially is behind large scale ecosystem regime shifts found in both Seas. During our study period two such shifts have been identified independently from us in a study earlier in the Southern and Central Baltic in 1980s and 1990s and a later one in 2001/2002 in the North Sea. As a post hoc test we compared the 0+ year class strength of the North Sea herring with BSRR intensity, and found evidence for higher herring production in high BSRR periods, which further corroborates the idea of a remote effect from the large watershed area of the Baltic. Regime shifts as well as their semi-synchronous appearance in two neighbouring sea areas could be identified. GLIMMIX models provide opportunities for determining and understanding the mechanisms behind marine ecosystem long-term and large-scale changes. Many studies have shown the importance of climatic factors (identified by the air pressure index, North Atlantic Oscillation) to the physical and biological changes over the North Atlantic. Our study enlarges the areal and temporal scope of these observations, and provides further support and explanation for climate as the pacemaker for marine ecological changes.

Decadal and long-term boreal soil carbon and nitrogen sequestration rates across a variety of ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manies, Kristen L.; Harden, Jennifer W.; Fuller, Christopher C.; Turetsky, Merritt

2016-01-01

Boreal soils play a critical role in the global carbon (C) cycle; therefore, it is important to understand the mechanisms that control soil C accumulation and loss for this region. Examining C & nitrogen (N) accumulation rates over decades to centuries may provide additional understanding of the dominant mechanisms for their storage, which can be masked by seasonal and interannual variability when investigated over the short term. We examined longer-term accumulation rates, using 210Pb and 14C to date soil layers, for a wide variety of boreal ecosystems: a black spruce forest, a shrub ecosystem, a tussock grass ecosystem, a sedge-dominated ecosystem, and a rich fen. All ecosystems had similar decadal C accumulation rates, averaging 84 ± 42 gC m−2 yr−1. Long-term (century) C accumulation rates were slower than decadal rates, averaging 14 ± 5 gC m−2 yr−1 for all ecosystems except the rich fen, for which the long-term C accumulation rates was more similar to decadal rates (44 ± 5 and 76 ± 9 gC m−2 yr−1, respectively). The rich fen also had the highest long-term N accumulation rates (2.7 gN m−2 yr−1). The lowest N accumulation rate, on both a decadal and long-term basis, was found in the black spruce forest (0.2 and 1.4 gN m−2 yr−1, respectively). Our results suggest that the controls on long-term C and N cycling at the rich fen is fundamentally different from the other ecosystems, likely due to differences in the predominant drivers of nutrient cycling (oxygen availability, for C) and reduced amounts of disturbance by fire (for C and N). This result implies that most shifts in ecosystem vegetation across the boreal region, driven by either climate or succession, will not significantly impact regional C or N dynamics over years to decades. However, ecosystem transitions to or from a rich fen will promote significant shifts in soil C and N storage.

Abrupt shifts in ecosystem function and intensification of global biogeochemical cycle driven by hydroclimatic extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xuanlong; Huete, Alfredo; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo; Zhang, Yongguang; Xie, Zunyi; Giovannini, Leandro; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek

2016-04-01

Amplification of the hydrologic cycle as a consequence of global warming is increasing the frequency, intensity, and spatial extent of extreme climate events globally. The potential influences resulting from amplification of the hydro-climatic cycle, coupled with an accelerating warming trend, pose great concerns on the sustainability of terrestrial ecosystems to sequester carbon, maintain biodiversity, provide ecosystem services, food security, and support human livelihood. Despite the great implications, the magnitude, direction, and carry-over effect of these extreme climate events on ecosystem function, remain largely uncertain. To address these pressing issues, we conducted an observational, interdisciplinary study using satellite retrievals of atmospheric CO2 and photosynthesis (chlorophyll fluorescence), and in-situ flux tower measures of ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchange, to reveal the shifts in ecosystem function across extreme drought and wet periods. We further determine the factors that govern ecosystem sensitivity to hydroclimatic extremes. We focus on Australia but extended our analyses to other global dryland regions due to their significant role in global biogeochemical cycles. Our results revealed dramatic impacts of drought and wet hydroclimatic extremes on ecosystem function, with abrupt changes in vegetation productivity, carbon uptake, and water-use-efficiency between years. Drought resulted in widespread reductions or collapse in the normal patterns of vegetation growth seasonality such that in many cases there was no detectable phenological cycle during extreme drought years. We further identified a significant increasing trend (p < 0.001) in extreme wet year precipitation amounts over Australia and many other global regions, resulting in an increasing trend in magnitude of the episodic carbon sink pulses coupled to each La Niña-induced wet years. This finding is of global biogeochemical significance, with the consequence of amplifying the global carbon cycle. Lastly, we use landscape measurements of carbon and water fluxes from eddy-covariance towers and field sampling of aboveground net primary productivity from long-term ecological networks to verify the patterns observed by top-down approaches. Our results demonstrate the intensification of hydroclimatic extremes due to global warming is exerting important impacts on ecosystem function, which further have significant implications on global biogeochemical cycles as well as local ecosystem processes.

Eccentricity and obliquity paced carbon cycling in the Early Triassic and implications for post-extinction ecosystem recovery.

PubMed

Fu, Wanlu; Jiang, Da-Yong; Montañez, Isabel P; Meyers, Stephen R; Motani, Ryosuke; Tintori, Andrea

2016-06-13

The timing of marine ecosystem recovery following the End Permian Mass Extinction (EPME) remains poorly constrained given the lack of radiometric ages. Here we develop a high-resolution carbonate carbon isotope (δ(13)Ccarb) record for 3.20 million years of the Olenekian in South China that defines the astronomical time-scale for the critical interval of major evolutionary and oceanic events in the Spathian. δ(13)Ccarb documents eccentricity modulation of carbon cycling through the period and a strong obliquity signal. A shift in phasing between short and long eccentricity modulation, and amplification of obliquity, is nearly coincident with a 2% decrease in seawater δ(13)CDIC, the last of a longer-term stepped decrease through the Spathian. The mid-Spathian shift in seawater δ(13)CDIC to typical thermocline values is interpreted to record a major oceanic reorganization with global climate amelioration. Coincidence of the phasing shift with the first occurrence of marine reptiles (248.81 Ma), suggests that their invasion into the sea and the onset of a complex ecosystem were facilitated by restoration of deep ocean ventilation linked mechanistically to a change in the response of the oceanic carbon reservoir to astronomical forcing. Together these records place the first constraints on the duration of the post-extinction recovery to 3.35 myr.

Eccentricity and obliquity paced carbon cycling in the Early Triassic and implications for post-extinction ecosystem recovery

PubMed Central

Fu, Wanlu; Jiang, Da-yong; Montañez, Isabel P.; Meyers, Stephen R.; Motani, Ryosuke; Tintori, Andrea

2016-01-01

The timing of marine ecosystem recovery following the End Permian Mass Extinction (EPME) remains poorly constrained given the lack of radiometric ages. Here we develop a high-resolution carbonate carbon isotope (δ13Ccarb) record for 3.20 million years of the Olenekian in South China that defines the astronomical time-scale for the critical interval of major evolutionary and oceanic events in the Spathian. δ13Ccarb documents eccentricity modulation of carbon cycling through the period and a strong obliquity signal. A shift in phasing between short and long eccentricity modulation, and amplification of obliquity, is nearly coincident with a 2% decrease in seawater δ13CDIC, the last of a longer-term stepped decrease through the Spathian. The mid-Spathian shift in seawater δ13CDIC to typical thermocline values is interpreted to record a major oceanic reorganization with global climate amelioration. Coincidence of the phasing shift with the first occurrence of marine reptiles (248.81 Ma), suggests that their invasion into the sea and the onset of a complex ecosystem were facilitated by restoration of deep ocean ventilation linked mechanistically to a change in the response of the oceanic carbon reservoir to astronomical forcing. Together these records place the first constraints on the duration of the post-extinction recovery to 3.35 myr. PMID:27292969

A Dissolved Oxygen Threshold for Shifts in Bacterial Community Structure in a Seasonally Hypoxic Estuary.

PubMed

Spietz, Rachel L; Williams, Cheryl M; Rocap, Gabrielle; Horner-Devine, M Claire

2015-01-01

Pelagic ecosystems can become depleted of dissolved oxygen as a result of both natural processes and anthropogenic effects. As dissolved oxygen concentration decreases, energy shifts from macrofauna to microorganisms, which persist in these hypoxic zones. Oxygen-limited regions are rapidly expanding globally; however, patterns of microbial communities associated with dissolved oxygen gradients are not yet well understood. To assess the effects of decreasing dissolved oxygen on bacteria, we examined shifts in bacterial community structure over space and time in Hood Canal, Washington, USA-a glacial fjord-like water body that experiences seasonal low dissolved oxygen levels known to be detrimental to fish and other marine organisms. We found a strong negative association between bacterial richness and dissolved oxygen. Bacterial community composition across all samples was also strongly associated with the dissolved oxygen gradient, and significant changes in bacterial community composition occurred at a dissolved oxygen concentration between 5.18 and 7.12 mg O2 L(-1). This threshold value of dissolved oxygen is higher than classic definitions of hypoxia (<2.0 mg O2 L(-1)), suggesting that changes in bacterial communities may precede the detrimental effects on ecologically and economically important macrofauna. Furthermore, bacterial taxa responsible for driving whole community changes across the oxygen gradient are commonly detected in other oxygen-stressed ecosystems, suggesting that the patterns we uncovered in Hood Canal may be relevant in other low oxygen ecosystems.

Eccentricity and obliquity paced carbon cycling in the Early Triassic and implications for post-extinction ecosystem recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Wanlu; Jiang, Da-Yong; Montañez, Isabel P.; Meyers, Stephen R.; Motani, Ryosuke; Tintori, Andrea

2016-06-01

The timing of marine ecosystem recovery following the End Permian Mass Extinction (EPME) remains poorly constrained given the lack of radiometric ages. Here we develop a high-resolution carbonate carbon isotope (δ13Ccarb) record for 3.20 million years of the Olenekian in South China that defines the astronomical time-scale for the critical interval of major evolutionary and oceanic events in the Spathian. δ13Ccarb documents eccentricity modulation of carbon cycling through the period and a strong obliquity signal. A shift in phasing between short and long eccentricity modulation, and amplification of obliquity, is nearly coincident with a 2% decrease in seawater δ13CDIC, the last of a longer-term stepped decrease through the Spathian. The mid-Spathian shift in seawater δ13CDIC to typical thermocline values is interpreted to record a major oceanic reorganization with global climate amelioration. Coincidence of the phasing shift with the first occurrence of marine reptiles (248.81 Ma), suggests that their invasion into the sea and the onset of a complex ecosystem were facilitated by restoration of deep ocean ventilation linked mechanistically to a change in the response of the oceanic carbon reservoir to astronomical forcing. Together these records place the first constraints on the duration of the post-extinction recovery to 3.35 myr.

Climate change and glacier retreat drive shifts in an Antarctic benthic ecosystem.

PubMed

Sahade, Ricardo; Lagger, Cristian; Torre, Luciana; Momo, Fernando; Monien, Patrick; Schloss, Irene; Barnes, David K A; Servetto, Natalia; Tarantelli, Soledad; Tatián, Marcos; Zamboni, Nadia; Abele, Doris

2015-11-01

The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is one of the three places on Earth that registered the most intense warming in the last 50 years, almost five times the global mean. This warming has strongly affected the cryosphere, causing the largest ice-shelf collapses ever observed and the retreat of 87% of glaciers. Ecosystem responses, although increasingly predicted, have been mainly reported for pelagic systems. However, and despite most Antarctic species being benthic, responses in the Antarctic benthos have been detected in only a few species, and major effects at assemblage level are unknown. This is probably due to the scarcity of baselines against which to assess change. We performed repeat surveys of coastal benthos in 1994, 1998, and 2010, analyzing community structure and environmental variables at King George Island, Antarctica. We report a marked shift in an Antarctic benthic community that can be linked to ongoing climate change. However, rather than temperature as the primary factor, we highlight the resulting increased sediment runoff, triggered by glacier retreat, as the potential causal factor. The sudden shift from a "filter feeders-ascidian domination" to a "mixed assemblage" suggests that thresholds (for example, of tolerable sedimentation) and alternative equilibrium states, depending on the reversibility of the changes, could be possible traits of this ecosystem. Sedimentation processes will be increasing under the current scenario of glacier retreat, and attention needs to be paid to its effects along the AP.

Global desertification: Drivers and feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Odorico, Paolo; Bhattachan, Abinash; Davis, Kyle F.; Ravi, Sujith; Runyan, Christiane W.

2013-01-01

Desertification is a change in soil properties, vegetation or climate, which results in a persistent loss of ecosystem services that are fundamental to sustaining life. Desertification affects large dryland areas around the world and is a major cause of stress in human societies. Here we review recent research on the drivers, feedbacks, and impacts of desertification. A multidisciplinary approach to understanding the drivers and feedbacks of global desertification is motivated by our increasing need to improve global food production and to sustainably manage ecosystems in the context of climate change. Classic desertification theories look at this process as a transition between stable states in bistable ecosystem dynamics. Climate change (i.e., aridification) and land use dynamics are the major drivers of an ecosystem shift to a “desertified” (or “degraded”) state. This shift is typically sustained by positive feedbacks, which stabilize the system in the new state. Desertification feedbacks may involve land degradation processes (e.g., nutrient loss or salinization), changes in rainfall regime resulting from land-atmosphere interactions (e.g., precipitation recycling, dust emissions), or changes in plant community composition (e.g., shrub encroachment, decrease in vegetation cover). We analyze each of these feedback mechanisms and discuss their possible enhancement by interactions with socio-economic drivers. Large scale effects of desertification include the emigration of “environmental refugees” displaced from degraded areas, climatic changes, and the alteration of global biogeochemical cycles resulting from the emission and long-range transport of fine mineral dust. Recent research has identified some possible early warning signs of desertification, which can be used as indicators of resilience loss and imminent shift to desert-like conditions. We conclude with a brief discussion on some desertification control strategies implemented in different regions around the world.

How did climate drying reduce ecosystem carbon storage in the forest-steppe ecotone? A case study in Inner Mongolia, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Yuke; Liu, Hongyan

2010-07-01

The projected recession of forests in the forest-steppe ecotone under projected climate drying would restrict the carbon sink function of terrestrial ecosystems. Previous studies have shown that the forest-steppe ecotone in the southeastern Inner Mongolia Plateau originally resulted from climate drying and vegetation shifts during the mid- to late-Holocene, but the interrelated processes of changing soil carbon storage and vegetation and soil shifts remain unclear. A total of 44 forest soil profiles and 40 steppe soil profiles were excavated to determine soil carbon storage in deciduous broadleaf forests (DBF), coniferous forests (CF) and steppe (ST) in this area. Carbon density was estimated to be 106.51 t/hm(2) (DBF), 73.20 t/hm(2) (CF), and 28.14 t/hm(2) (ST) for these ecosystems. Soil organic carbon (SOC) content was negatively correlated with sand content (R = -0.879, P < 0.01, n = 42), and positively correlated with silt (R = 0.881, P < 0.01, n = 42) and clay (R = 0.858, P < 0.01, n = 42) content. Consistent trends between fractions of coarse sand and a proxy index of relative aridity in sediment sequences from two palaeo-lakes further imply that climate drying reduced SOC through coarsening of the soil texture in the forest-steppe ecotone. Changes in carbon storage caused by climate drying can be divided into two stages: (1) carbon storage of the ecosystem was reduced to 68.7%, mostly by soil coarsening when DBF were replaced by CF at approximately 5,900 (14)C years before present (BP); and (2) carbon storage was reduced to 26.4%, mostly by vegetation shifts when CF were replaced by ST at approximately 2,900 (14)C years BP.

Permafrost collapse shifts alpine tundra to a carbon source but reduces N2O and CH4 release on the northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, C. C.; Abbott, B. W.; Zhao, Q.; Su, H.; Wang, S. F.; Wu, Q. B.; Zhang, T. J.; Wu, X. D.

2017-09-01

Important unknowns remain about how abrupt permafrost collapse (thermokarst) affects carbon balance and greenhouse gas flux, limiting our ability to predict the magnitude and timing of the permafrost carbon feedback. We measured monthly, growing-season fluxes of CO2, CH4, and N2O at a large thermokarst feature in alpine tundra on the northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Thermokarst formation disrupted plant growth and soil hydrology, shifting the ecosystem from a growing-season carbon sink to a weak source but decreasing feature level CH4 and N2O flux. Temperature-corrected ecosystem respiration from decomposing permafrost soil was 2.7 to 9.5-fold higher than in similar features from Arctic and Boreal regions, suggesting that warmer and dryer conditions on the northern QTP could accelerate carbon decomposition following permafrost collapse. N2O flux was similar to the highest values reported for Arctic ecosystems and was 60% higher from exposed mineral soil on the feature floor, confirming Arctic observations of coupled nitrification and denitrification in collapsed soils. Q10 values for respiration were typically over 4, suggesting high-temperature sensitivity of thawed carbon. Taken together, these results suggest that QTP permafrost carbon in alpine tundra is highly vulnerable to mineralization following thaw, and that N2O production could be an important noncarbon permafrost climate feedback. Permafrost collapse altered soil hydrology, shifting the ecosystem from a carbon sink to carbon source but decreasing CH4 and N2O flux. Little to no vegetation recovery after stabilization suggests potentially large net carbon losses. High N2O flux compared to Arctic and Boreal systems suggests noncarbon permafrost climate feedback.

Variance and Rate-of-Change as Early Warning Signals for a Critical Transition in an Aquatic Ecosystem State: A Test Case From Tasmania, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Kristen K.; Fletcher, Michael-Shawn; Gadd, Patricia S.; Heijnis, Henk; Saunders, Krystyna M.; Simpson, Gavin L.; Zawadzki, Atun

2018-02-01

Critical transitions in ecosystem states are often sudden and unpredictable. Consequently, there is a concerted effort to identify measurable early warning signals (EWS) for these important events. Aquatic ecosystems provide an opportunity to observe critical transitions due to their high sensitivity and rapid response times. Using palaeoecological techniques, we can measure properties of time series data to determine if critical transitions are preceded by any measurable ecosystem metrics, that is, identify EWS. Using a suite of palaeoenvironmental data spanning the last 2,400 years (diatoms, pollen, geochemistry, and charcoal influx), we assess whether a critical transition in diatom community structure was preceded by measurable EWS. Lake Vera, in the temperate rain forest of western Tasmania, Australia, has a diatom community dominated by Discostella stelligera and undergoes an abrupt compositional shift at ca. 820 cal yr BP that is concomitant with increased fire disturbance of the local vegetation. This shift is manifest as a transition from less oligotrophic acidic diatom flora (Achnanthidium minutissimum, Brachysira styriaca, and Fragilaria capucina) to more oligotrophic acidic taxa (Frustulia elongatissima, Eunotia diodon, and Gomphonema multiforme). We observe a marked increase in compositional variance and rate-of-change prior to this critical transition, revealing these metrics are useful EWS in this system. Interestingly, vegetation remains complacent to fire disturbance until after the shift in the diatom community. Disturbance taxa invade and the vegetation system experiences an increase in both compositional variance and rate-of-change. These trends imply an approaching critical transition in the vegetation and the probable collapse of the local rain forest system.

Patterns of Distribution and Spatial Indicators of Ecosystem Change Based on Key Species in the Southern Benguela.

PubMed

Watermeyer, Katherine E; Hutchings, Laurence; Jarre, Astrid; Shannon, Lynne J

2016-01-01

Several commercially and ecologically important species in the southern Benguela have undergone southward and eastward shifts in their distributions over previous decades, most notably the small pelagic fish sardine Sardinops sagax and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus. Understanding these changes and their implications is essential in implementing an ecosystem approach to fisheries in the southern Benguela and attempting to appreciate the potential impacts of future environmental change. To investigate possible impacts of these shifts at an ecosystem level, distribution maps for before (1985-1991), during (1997-2000) and after (2003-2008) the shift in small pelagic fish were constructed for 14 key species from catch and survey data, and used to calculate spatial indicators including proportion east and west of Cape Agulhas, relative overlap in biomass and area, index of diversity, connectivity. Potential interactions on the south and west coasts were also compared. For several species (redeye; chub mackerel; kingklip; chokka squid; yellowtail), previously unidentified increases in the proportion of biomass east of Cape Agulhas were shown to have occurred over the same period as that of small pelagic fish, although none to the same degree. On average, overlap with small pelagic fish increased over time and overall system connectivity was lowest in the intermediate period, possibly indicating a system under transition. Connectivity declined over time on the west coast while increasing on the east coast. Distributions of other species have changed over time, with the region east of Cape Agulhas becoming increasingly important in terms of potential trophic interaction. Variations in distribution of biomass and structural complexity affect the trophic structure and hence functioning of the system, and implications should be considered when attempting to identify the possible ecosystem impacts of current and future system-level change.

The changing Arctic carbon cycle: using the past to understand terrestrial-aquatic linkages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, N. J.; van Hardenbroek, M.; Jones, V.; McGowan, S.; Langdon, P. G.; Whiteford, E.; Turner, S.; Edwards, M. E.

2016-12-01

Predicted shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover associated with Arctic warming are altering the delivery and processing of carbon to aquatic ecosystems. This process could determine whether lakes are net carbon sources or sinks and, because lake density is high in many Arctic areas, may alter regional carbon budgets. Lake sediment records integrate information from within the lake and its catchment and can be used quantify past vegetation shifts associated with known climatic episodes of warmer (Holocene Thermal Maximum) and cooler (Neoglacial) conditions. We analysed sediment cores located in different Arctic vegetation biomes (tundra, shrub, forested) in Greenland, Norway and Alaska and used biochemical (algal pigments, stable isotopes) remains to evaluate whether past vegetation shifts were associated with changes in ecosystem carbon processing and biodiversity. When lake catchments were sparsely vegetated and soil vegetation was limited ultra-violet radiation (UVR) screening pigments indicate clear lake waters, scarce dissolved organic carbon/ matter (DOC/M). Moderate vegetation development (birch scrub in Norway; herb tundra in Greenland) appears to enhance delivery of DOM to lakes, and to stimulate algal production which is apparently linked to heterotrophic carbon processing pathways (e.g. algal mixotrophy, nutrient release via the microbial loop). Mature forest cover (in Alaska and Norway) supressed lake autotrophic production, most likely because coloured DOM delivered from catchment vegetation limited light availability. During wetter periods when mires developed lake carbon processing also changed, indicating that hydrological delivery of terrestrial DOM is also important. Therefore, future changes in Arctic vegetation and precipitation patterns are highly likely to alter the way that arctic ecosystems process carbon. Our approach provides an understanding of how ecosystem diversity and carbon processing respond to past climate change and the difficulty of identifying the drivers of state changes in the arctic.

Legacy of a half century of Athabasca oil sands development recorded by lake ecosystems

PubMed Central

Kurek, Joshua; Kirk, Jane L.; Muir, Derek C. G.; Wang, Xiaowa; Evans, Marlene S.; Smol, John P.

2013-01-01

The absence of well-executed environmental monitoring in the Athabasca oil sands (Alberta, Canada) has necessitated the use of indirect approaches to determine background conditions of freshwater ecosystems before development of one of the Earth’s largest energy deposits. Here, we use highly resolved lake sediment records to provide ecological context to ∼50 y of oil sands development and other environmental changes affecting lake ecosystems in the region. We show that polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) within lake sediments, particularly C1-C4–alkylated PAHs, increased significantly after development of the bitumen resource began, followed by significant increases in dibenzothiophenes. Total PAH fluxes in the modern sediments of our six study lakes, including one site ∼90 km northwest of the major development area, are now ∼2.5–23 times greater than ∼1960 levels. PAH ratios indicate temporal shifts from primarily wood combustion to petrogenic sources that coincide with greater oil sands development. Canadian interim sediment quality guidelines for PAHs have been exceeded since the mid-1980s at the most impacted site. A paleoecological assessment of Daphnia shows that this sentinel zooplankter has not yet been negatively impacted by decades of high atmospheric PAH deposition. Rather, coincident with increases in PAHs, climate-induced shifts in aquatic primary production related to warmer and drier conditions are the primary environmental drivers producing marked daphniid shifts after ∼1960 to 1970. Because of the striking increase in PAHs, elevated primary production, and zooplankton changes, these oil sands lake ecosystems have entered new ecological states completely distinct from those of previous centuries. PMID:23297215

Embedding ecosystem services into the Marine Strategy Framework Directive: Illustrated by eutrophication in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Higgins, T. G.; Gilbert, A. J.

2014-03-01

The introduction of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) with its focus on an Ecosystem Approach places an emphasis on the human dimensions of environmental problems. Human activities may be the source of marine degradation, but may also be adversely affected should degradation compromise the provision of ecosystem services. The MSFD marks a shift away from management aiming to restore past, undegraded states toward management for Good Environmental Status (GEnS) based on delivery of marine goods and services. An example relating ecosystem services to criteria for Good Environmental Status is presented for eutrophication, a long recognised problem in many parts of Europe's seas and specifically targeted by descriptors for GEnS. Taking the North Sea as a case study the relationships between the eutrophication criteria of the MSFD and final and intermediate marine ecosystem services are examined. Ecosystem services are valued, where possible in monetary terms, in order to illustrate how eutrophication affects human welfare (economic externalities) through its multiple effects on ecosystem services.

Resource-Balance Design and Monitoring: Assessing Sustainability of FSEEC-LandLab as BSU's First Sustainable Built-site

Treesearch

J. L. Motloch

2006-01-01

This paper addresses the change from earth as self-managing ecosystem operating within local limits and natural laws, to a human-dominated ecosystem where people falsely believe they live outside natural limits and laws. It reviews the shift from low-technology and regional-economics to advanced technologies and globalization whose impacts exceed nature’s ability to...

Vulnerability of landscape carbon fluxes to future climate and fire in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Treesearch

Erica A. H. Smithwick; Anthony L. Westerling; Monica G. Turner; William H. Romme; Michael G. Ryan

2011-01-01

More frequent fires under climate warming are likely to alter terrestrial carbon (C) stocks by reducing the amount of C stored in biomass and soil. However, the thresholds of fire frequency that could shift landscapes from C sinks to C sources under future climates are not known. We used the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) as a case study to explore the conditions...

Bacterial community structure and function shift along a successional series of tidal flats in the Yellow River Delta

PubMed Central

Lv, Xiaofei; Ma, Bin; Yu, Junbao; Chang, Scott X.; Xu, Jianming; Li, Yunzhao; Wang, Guangmei; Han, Guangxuan; Bo, Guan; Chu, Xiaojing

2016-01-01

Coastal ecosystems play significant ecological and economic roles but are threatened and facing decline. Microbes drive various biogeochemical processes in coastal ecosystems. Tidal flats are critical components of coastal ecosystems; however, the structure and function of microbial communities in tidal flats are poorly understood. Here we investigated the seasonal variations of bacterial communities along a tidal flat series (subtidal, intertidal and supratidal flats) and the factors affecting the variations. Bacterial community composition and diversity were analyzed over four seasons by 16S rRNA genes using the Ion Torrent PGM platform. Bacterial community composition differed significantly along the tidal flat series. Bacterial phylogenetic diversity increased while phylogenetic turnover decreased from subtidal to supratidal flats. Moreover, the bacterial community structure differed seasonally. Canonical correspondence analysis identified salinity as a major environmental factor structuring the microbial community in the sediment along the successional series. Meanwhile, temperature and nitrite concentration were major drivers of seasonal microbial changes. Despite major compositional shifts, nitrogen, methane and energy metabolisms predicted by PICRUSt were inhibited in the winter. Taken together, this study indicates that bacterial community structure changed along the successional tidal flat series and provides new insights on the characteristics of bacterial communities in coastal ecosystems. PMID:27824160

Bacterial community structure and function shift along a successional series of tidal flats in the Yellow River Delta.

PubMed

Lv, Xiaofei; Ma, Bin; Yu, Junbao; Chang, Scott X; Xu, Jianming; Li, Yunzhao; Wang, Guangmei; Han, Guangxuan; Bo, Guan; Chu, Xiaojing

2016-11-08

Coastal ecosystems play significant ecological and economic roles but are threatened and facing decline. Microbes drive various biogeochemical processes in coastal ecosystems. Tidal flats are critical components of coastal ecosystems; however, the structure and function of microbial communities in tidal flats are poorly understood. Here we investigated the seasonal variations of bacterial communities along a tidal flat series (subtidal, intertidal and supratidal flats) and the factors affecting the variations. Bacterial community composition and diversity were analyzed over four seasons by 16S rRNA genes using the Ion Torrent PGM platform. Bacterial community composition differed significantly along the tidal flat series. Bacterial phylogenetic diversity increased while phylogenetic turnover decreased from subtidal to supratidal flats. Moreover, the bacterial community structure differed seasonally. Canonical correspondence analysis identified salinity as a major environmental factor structuring the microbial community in the sediment along the successional series. Meanwhile, temperature and nitrite concentration were major drivers of seasonal microbial changes. Despite major compositional shifts, nitrogen, methane and energy metabolisms predicted by PICRUSt were inhibited in the winter. Taken together, this study indicates that bacterial community structure changed along the successional tidal flat series and provides new insights on the characteristics of bacterial communities in coastal ecosystems.

Matrix Intensification Alters Avian Functional Group Composition in Adjacent Rainforest Fragments

PubMed Central

Deikumah, Justus P.; McAlpine, Clive A.; Maron, Martine

2013-01-01

Conversion of farmland land-use matrices to surface mining is an increasing threat to the habitat quality of forest remnants and their constituent biota, with consequences for ecosystem functionality. We evaluated the effects of matrix type on bird community composition and the abundance and evenness within avian functional groups in south-west Ghana. We hypothesized that surface mining near remnants may result in a shift in functional composition of avifaunal communities, potentially disrupting ecological processes within tropical forest ecosystems. Matrix intensification and proximity to the remnant edge strongly influenced the abundance of members of several functional guilds. Obligate frugivores, strict terrestrial insectivores, lower and upper strata birds, and insect gleaners were most negatively affected by adjacent mining matrices, suggesting certain ecosystem processes such as seed dispersal may be disrupted by landscape change in this region. Evenness of these functional guilds was also lower in remnants adjacent to surface mining, regardless of the distance from remnant edge, with the exception of strict terrestrial insectivores. These shifts suggest matrix intensification can influence avian functional group composition and related ecosystem-level processes in adjacent forest remnants. The management of matrix habitat quality near and within mine concessions is important for improving efforts to preserveavian biodiversity in landscapes undergoing intensification such as through increased surface mining. PMID:24058634

Implications of tristability in pattern-forming ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zelnik, Yuval R.; Gandhi, Punit; Knobloch, Edgar; Meron, Ehud

2018-03-01

Many ecosystems show both self-organized spatial patterns and multistability of possible states. The combination of these two phenomena in different forms has a significant impact on the behavior of ecosystems in changing environments. One notable case is connected to tristability of two distinct uniform states together with patterned states, which has recently been found in model studies of dryland ecosystems. Using a simple model, we determine the extent of tristability in parameter space, explore its effects on the system dynamics, and consider its implications for state transitions or regime shifts. We analyze the bifurcation structure of model solutions that describe uniform states, periodic patterns, and hybrid states between the former two. We map out the parameter space where these states exist, and note how the different states interact with each other. We further focus on two special implications with ecological significance, breakdown of the snaking range and complex fronts. We find that the organization of the hybrid states within a homoclinic snaking structure breaks down as it meets a Maxwell point where simple fronts are stationary. We also discover a new series of complex fronts between the uniform states, each with its own velocity. We conclude with a brief discussion of the significance of these findings for the dynamics of regime shifts and their potential control.

The impact of projected increases in urbanization on ecosystem services.

PubMed

Eigenbrod, F; Bell, V A; Davies, H N; Heinemeyer, A; Armsworth, P R; Gaston, K J

2011-11-07

Alteration in land use is likely to be a major driver of changes in the distribution of ecosystem services before 2050. In Europe, urbanization will probably be the main cause of land-use change. This increase in urbanization will result in spatial shifts in both supplies of ecosystem services and the beneficiaries of those services; the net outcome of such shifts remains to be determined. Here, we model changes in urban land cover in Britain based on large (16%) projected increases in the human population by 2031, and the consequences for three different services--flood mitigation, agricultural production and carbon storage. We show that under a scenario of densification of urban areas, the combined effect of increasing population and loss of permeable surfaces is likely to result in 1.7 million people living within 1 km of rivers with at least 10 per cent increases in projected peak flows, but that increasing suburban 'sprawl' will have little effect on flood mitigation services. Conversely, losses of stored carbon and agricultural production are over three times as high under the sprawl as under the 'densification' urban growth scenarios. Our results illustrate the challenges of meeting, but also of predicting, future demands and patterns of ecosystem services in the face of increasing urbanization.

The impact of projected increases in urbanization on ecosystem services

PubMed Central

Eigenbrod, F.; Bell, V. A.; Davies, H. N.; Heinemeyer, A.; Armsworth, P. R.; Gaston, K. J.

2011-01-01

Alteration in land use is likely to be a major driver of changes in the distribution of ecosystem services before 2050. In Europe, urbanization will probably be the main cause of land-use change. This increase in urbanization will result in spatial shifts in both supplies of ecosystem services and the beneficiaries of those services; the net outcome of such shifts remains to be determined. Here, we model changes in urban land cover in Britain based on large (16%) projected increases in the human population by 2031, and the consequences for three different services—flood mitigation, agricultural production and carbon storage. We show that under a scenario of densification of urban areas, the combined effect of increasing population and loss of permeable surfaces is likely to result in 1.7 million people living within 1 km of rivers with at least 10 per cent increases in projected peak flows, but that increasing suburban ‘sprawl’ will have little effect on flood mitigation services. Conversely, losses of stored carbon and agricultural production are over three times as high under the sprawl as under the ‘densification’ urban growth scenarios. Our results illustrate the challenges of meeting, but also of predicting, future demands and patterns of ecosystem services in the face of increasing urbanization. PMID:21389035

Possible effects of global environmental changes on Antarctic benthos: a synthesis across five major taxa

PubMed Central

Ingels, Jeroen; Vanreusel, Ann; Brandt, Angelika; Catarino, Ana I; David, Bruno; De Ridder, Chantal; Dubois, Philippe; Gooday, Andrew J; Martin, Patrick; Pasotti, Francesca; Robert, Henri

2012-01-01

Because of the unique conditions that exist around the Antarctic continent, Southern Ocean (SO) ecosystems are very susceptible to the growing impact of global climate change and other anthropogenic influences. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand how SO marine life will cope with expected future changes in the environment. Studies of Antarctic organisms have shown that individual species and higher taxa display different degrees of sensitivity to environmental shifts, making it difficult to predict overall community or ecosystem responses. This emphasizes the need for an improved understanding of the Antarctic benthic ecosystem response to global climate change using a multitaxon approach with consideration of different levels of biological organization. Here, we provide a synthesis of the ability of five important Antarctic benthic taxa (Foraminifera, Nematoda, Amphipoda, Isopoda, and Echinoidea) to cope with changes in the environment (temperature, pH, ice cover, ice scouring, food quantity, and quality) that are linked to climatic changes. Responses from individual to the taxon-specific community level to these drivers will vary with taxon but will include local species extinctions, invasions of warmer-water species, shifts in diversity, dominance, and trophic group composition, all with likely consequences for ecosystem functioning. Limitations in our current knowledge and understanding of climate change effects on the different levels are discussed. PMID:22423336

Matrix intensification alters avian functional group composition in adjacent rainforest fragments.

PubMed

Deikumah, Justus P; McAlpine, Clive A; Maron, Martine

2013-01-01

Conversion of farmland land-use matrices to surface mining is an increasing threat to the habitat quality of forest remnants and their constituent biota, with consequences for ecosystem functionality. We evaluated the effects of matrix type on bird community composition and the abundance and evenness within avian functional groups in south-west Ghana. We hypothesized that surface mining near remnants may result in a shift in functional composition of avifaunal communities, potentially disrupting ecological processes within tropical forest ecosystems. Matrix intensification and proximity to the remnant edge strongly influenced the abundance of members of several functional guilds. Obligate frugivores, strict terrestrial insectivores, lower and upper strata birds, and insect gleaners were most negatively affected by adjacent mining matrices, suggesting certain ecosystem processes such as seed dispersal may be disrupted by landscape change in this region. Evenness of these functional guilds was also lower in remnants adjacent to surface mining, regardless of the distance from remnant edge, with the exception of strict terrestrial insectivores. These shifts suggest matrix intensification can influence avian functional group composition and related ecosystem-level processes in adjacent forest remnants. The management of matrix habitat quality near and within mine concessions is important for improving efforts to preserveavian biodiversity in landscapes undergoing intensification such as through increased surface mining.

Climate-mediated nitrogen and carbon dynamics in a tropical watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballantyne, A. P.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Poulter, B.

2011-06-01

Climate variability affects the capacity of the biosphere to assimilate and store important elements, such as nitrogen and carbon. Here we present biogeochemical evidence from the sediments of tropical Lake Titicaca indicating that large hydrologic changes in response to global glacial cycles during the Quaternary were accompanied by major shifts in ecosystem state. During prolonged glacial intervals, lake level was high and the lake was in a stable nitrogen-limited state. In contrast, during warm dry interglacials lake level fell and rates of nitrogen concentrations increased by a factor of 4-12, resulting in a fivefold to 24-fold increase in organic carbon concentrations in the sediments due to increased primary productivity. Observed periods of increased primary productivity were also associated with an apparent increase in denitrification. However, the net accumulation of nitrogen during interglacial intervals indicates that increased nitrogen supply exceeded nitrogen losses due to denitrification, thereby causing increases in primary productivity. Although primary productivity in tropical ecosystems, especially freshwater ecosystems, tends to be nitrogen limited, our results indicate that climate variability may lead to changes in nitrogen availability and thus changes in primary productivity. Therefore some tropical ecosystems may shift between a stable state of nitrogen limitation and a stable state of nitrogen saturation in response to varying climatic conditions.

How Does The Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, R. N.

2011-12-01

In 1997, maximum temperature in SE Australia shifted up by 0.8°C at pH0<0.01. Rainfall decreased by 13% in 1997-2010 compared to 1900-1996. Statistically significant shifts also occur in impact indicators: baumé levels in winegrapes shift >21 days earlier from 1998, streamflow records decrease by 30-70% from 1997 and annual mean forest fire danger index increased by 38% from 1997. Despite catastrophic fires killing 178 people in early 2009, the public remains unaware of this large change in their exposure. When regional temperature was separated into internally and externally forced components, the latter component was found to warm in two steps, in 1968-73 and 1997. These dates coincide with shifts in zonal mean temperature (24-44S; Figure 1). Climate model output shows similar step and trend behavior. Tests run on zonal, hemispheric and global mean temperature observations found shifts in all regions. 1997 marks a shift in global temperature of 0.3°C at pH0<0.01. Similar shifts occur in long-term tide gauge records around the globe (e.g., Figure 2) and in ocean heat content. The prevailing paradigm for how climate variables change is signal-noise construct combining a smooth signal with variations caused by internal climate variability. There seems to be no sound theoretical basis for this assumption. On the contrary, complex system behavior would suggest non-linear responses to externally forced change, especially at the regional scale. Some of our most basic assumptions about how climate changes may need to be re-examined.

Anthropogenic impacts drive niche and conservation metrics of a cryptic rattlesnake on the Colorado Plateau of western North America.

PubMed

Douglas, M R; Davis, M A; Amarello, M; Smith, J J; Schuett, G W; Herrmann, H-W; Holycross, A T; Douglas, M E

2016-04-01

Ecosystems transition quickly in the Anthropocene, whereas biodiversity adapts more slowly. Here we simulated a shifting woodland ecosystem on the Colorado Plateau of western North America by using as its proxy over space and time the fundamental niche of the Arizona black rattlesnake (Crotalus cerberus). We found an expansive (= end-of-Pleistocene) range that contracted sharply (= present), but is blocked topographically by Grand Canyon/Colorado River as it shifts predictably northwestward under moderate climate change (= 2080). Vulnerability to contemporary wildfire was quantified from available records, with forested area reduced more than 27% over 13 years. Both 'ecosystem metrics' underscore how climate and wildfire are rapidly converting the Plateau ecosystem into novel habitat. To gauge potential effects on C. cerberus, we derived a series of relevant 'conservation metrics' (i.e. genetic variability, dispersal capacity, effective population size) by sequencing 118 individuals across 846 bp of mitochondrial (mt)DNA-ATPase8/6. We identified five significantly different clades (net sequence divergence = 2.2%) isolated by drainage/topography, with low dispersal (F ST = 0.82) and small sizes (2N ef = 5.2). Our compiled metrics (i.e. small-populations, topographic-isolation, low-dispersal versus conserved-niche, vulnerable-ecosystem, dispersal barriers) underscore the susceptibility of this woodland specialist to a climate and wildfire tandem. We offer adaptive management scenarios that may counterbalance these metrics and avoid the extirpation of this and other highly specialized, relictual woodland clades.

Soil respiration across a permafrost transition zone: spatial structure and environmental correlates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stegen, James C.; Anderson, Carolyn G.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

Soil respiration is a key ecosystem function whereby shifts in respiration rates can shift systems from carbon sinks to sources. Soil respiration in permafrost-associated systems is particularly important given climate change driven permafrost thaw that leads to significant uncertainty in resulting ecosystem carbon dynamics. Here we characterize the spatial structure and environmental drivers of soil respiration across a permafrost transition zone. We find that soil respiration is characterized by a non-linear threshold that occurs at active-layer depths greater than 140 cm. We also find that within each season, tree basal area is a dominant driver of soil respiration regardless of spatial scale, but onlymore » in spatial domains with significant spatial variability in basal area. Our analyses further show that spatial variation (the coefficient of variation) and mean-variance power-law scaling of soil respiration in our boreal system are consistent with previous work in other ecosystems (e.g., tropical forests) and in population ecology, respectively. Comparing our results to those in other ecosystems suggests that temporally stable features such as tree-stand structure are often primary drivers of spatial variation in soil respiration. If so, this provides an opportunity to better estimate the magnitude and spatial variation in soil respiration through remote sensing. Finally, combining such an approach with broader knowledge of thresholding behavior – here related to active layer depth – would provide empirical constraints on models aimed at predicting ecosystem responses to ongoing permafrost thaw.« less

Soil respiration across a permafrost transition zone: spatial structure and environmental correlates

DOE PAGES

Stegen, James C.; Anderson, Carolyn G.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; ...

2017-09-28

Soil respiration is a key ecosystem function whereby shifts in respiration rates can shift systems from carbon sinks to sources. Soil respiration in permafrost-associated systems is particularly important given climate change driven permafrost thaw that leads to significant uncertainty in resulting ecosystem carbon dynamics. Here we characterize the spatial structure and environmental drivers of soil respiration across a permafrost transition zone. We find that soil respiration is characterized by a non-linear threshold that occurs at active-layer depths greater than 140 cm. We also find that within each season, tree basal area is a dominant driver of soil respiration regardless of spatial scale, but onlymore » in spatial domains with significant spatial variability in basal area. Our analyses further show that spatial variation (the coefficient of variation) and mean-variance power-law scaling of soil respiration in our boreal system are consistent with previous work in other ecosystems (e.g., tropical forests) and in population ecology, respectively. Comparing our results to those in other ecosystems suggests that temporally stable features such as tree-stand structure are often primary drivers of spatial variation in soil respiration. If so, this provides an opportunity to better estimate the magnitude and spatial variation in soil respiration through remote sensing. Finally, combining such an approach with broader knowledge of thresholding behavior – here related to active layer depth – would provide empirical constraints on models aimed at predicting ecosystem responses to ongoing permafrost thaw.« less

Soil respiration across a permafrost transition zone: spatial structure and environmental correlates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stegen, James C.; Anderson, Carolyn G.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Crump, Alex R.; Chen, Xingyuan; Hess, Nancy

2017-09-01

Soil respiration is a key ecosystem function whereby shifts in respiration rates can shift systems from carbon sinks to sources. Soil respiration in permafrost-associated systems is particularly important given climate change driven permafrost thaw that leads to significant uncertainty in resulting ecosystem carbon dynamics. Here we characterize the spatial structure and environmental drivers of soil respiration across a permafrost transition zone. We find that soil respiration is characterized by a non-linear threshold that occurs at active-layer depths greater than 140 cm. We also find that within each season, tree basal area is a dominant driver of soil respiration regardless of spatial scale, but only in spatial domains with significant spatial variability in basal area. Our analyses further show that spatial variation (the coefficient of variation) and mean-variance power-law scaling of soil respiration in our boreal system are consistent with previous work in other ecosystems (e.g., tropical forests) and in population ecology, respectively. Comparing our results to those in other ecosystems suggests that temporally stable features such as tree-stand structure are often primary drivers of spatial variation in soil respiration. If so, this provides an opportunity to better estimate the magnitude and spatial variation in soil respiration through remote sensing. Combining such an approach with broader knowledge of thresholding behavior - here related to active layer depth - would provide empirical constraints on models aimed at predicting ecosystem responses to ongoing permafrost thaw.

Anthropogenic impacts drive niche and conservation metrics of a cryptic rattlesnake on the Colorado Plateau of western North America

PubMed Central

Douglas, M. R.; Davis, M. A.; Amarello, M.; Smith, J. J.; Schuett, G. W.; Herrmann, H.-W.; Holycross, A. T.; Douglas, M. E.

2016-01-01

Ecosystems transition quickly in the Anthropocene, whereas biodiversity adapts more slowly. Here we simulated a shifting woodland ecosystem on the Colorado Plateau of western North America by using as its proxy over space and time the fundamental niche of the Arizona black rattlesnake (Crotalus cerberus). We found an expansive (= end-of-Pleistocene) range that contracted sharply (= present), but is blocked topographically by Grand Canyon/Colorado River as it shifts predictably northwestward under moderate climate change (= 2080). Vulnerability to contemporary wildfire was quantified from available records, with forested area reduced more than 27% over 13 years. Both ‘ecosystem metrics' underscore how climate and wildfire are rapidly converting the Plateau ecosystem into novel habitat. To gauge potential effects on C. cerberus, we derived a series of relevant ‘conservation metrics' (i.e. genetic variability, dispersal capacity, effective population size) by sequencing 118 individuals across 846 bp of mitochondrial (mt)DNA-ATPase8/6. We identified five significantly different clades (net sequence divergence = 2.2%) isolated by drainage/topography, with low dispersal (FST = 0.82) and small sizes (2Nef = 5.2). Our compiled metrics (i.e. small-populations, topographic-isolation, low-dispersal versus conserved-niche, vulnerable-ecosystem, dispersal barriers) underscore the susceptibility of this woodland specialist to a climate and wildfire tandem. We offer adaptive management scenarios that may counterbalance these metrics and avoid the extirpation of this and other highly specialized, relictual woodland clades. PMID:27152218

The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Burrows, Michael T; Schoeman, David S; Buckley, Lauren B; Moore, Pippa; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Brander, Keith M; Brown, Chris; Bruno, John F; Duarte, Carlos M; Halpern, Benjamin S; Holding, Johnna; Kappel, Carrie V; Kiessling, Wolfgang; O'Connor, Mary I; Pandolfi, John M; Parmesan, Camille; Schwing, Franklin B; Sydeman, William J; Richardson, Anthony J

2011-11-04

Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming. These indices give a complex mosaic of predicted range shifts and phenology changes that deviate from simple poleward migration and earlier springs or later falls. They also emphasize potential conservation concerns, because areas of high marine biodiversity often have greater velocities of climate change and seasonal shifts.

Are aliens threatening European aquatic coastal ecosystems?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reise, Karsten; Olenin, Sergej; Thieltges, David W.

2006-05-01

Inshore waters of European coasts have accumulated a high share of non-indigenous species, where a changeable palaeoenvironment has caused low diversity in indigenous biota. Also strongly transformed modern coastal ecosystems seem to assimilate whatever species have been introduced and tolerate the physical regime. Adding non-native species does not have any directional predetermined effects on recipient coastal ecosystems. The status of being a non-native rather refers to a position in evolutionary history than qualify as an ecological category with distinct and consistent properties. Effects of invaders vary between habitats and with the phase of invasion and also with shifting ambient conditions. Although aliens accelerate change in European coastal biota, we found no evidence that they generally impair biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. More often, invaders expand ecosystem functioning by adding new ecological traits, intensifying existing ones and increasing functional redundancy.

Merging paleobiology with conservation biology to guide the future of terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Barnosky, Anthony D; Hadly, Elizabeth A; Gonzalez, Patrick; Head, Jason; Polly, P David; Lawing, A Michelle; Eronen, Jussi T; Ackerly, David D; Alex, Ken; Biber, Eric; Blois, Jessica; Brashares, Justin; Ceballos, Gerardo; Davis, Edward; Dietl, Gregory P; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Doremus, Holly; Fortelius, Mikael; Greene, Harry W; Hellmann, Jessica; Hickler, Thomas; Jackson, Stephen T; Kemp, Melissa; Koch, Paul L; Kremen, Claire; Lindsey, Emily L; Looy, Cindy; Marshall, Charles R; Mendenhall, Chase; Mulch, Andreas; Mychajliw, Alexis M; Nowak, Carsten; Ramakrishnan, Uma; Schnitzler, Jan; Das Shrestha, Kashish; Solari, Katherine; Stegner, Lynn; Stegner, M Allison; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Wake, Marvalee H; Zhang, Zhibin

2017-02-10

Conservation of species and ecosystems is increasingly difficult because anthropogenic impacts are pervasive and accelerating. Under this rapid global change, maximizing conservation success requires a paradigm shift from maintaining ecosystems in idealized past states toward facilitating their adaptive and functional capacities, even as species ebb and flow individually. Developing effective strategies under this new paradigm will require deeper understanding of the long-term dynamics that govern ecosystem persistence and reconciliation of conflicts among approaches to conserving historical versus novel ecosystems. Integrating emerging information from conservation biology, paleobiology, and the Earth sciences is an important step forward on the path to success. Maintaining nature in all its aspects will also entail immediately addressing the overarching threats of growing human population, overconsumption, pollution, and climate change. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Landslide-dammed paleolake perturbs marine sedimentation and drives genetic change in anadromous fish

PubMed Central

Mackey, Benjamin H.; Roering, Joshua J.; Lamb, Michael P.

2011-01-01

Large bedrock landslides have been shown to modulate rates and processes of river activity by forming dams, forcing upstream aggradation of water and sediment, and generating catastrophic outburst floods. Less apparent is the effect of large landslide dams on river ecosystems and marine sedimentation. Combining analyses of 1-m resolution topographic data (acquired via airborne laser mapping) and field investigation, we present evidence for a large, landslide-dammed paleolake along the Eel River, CA. The landslide mass initiated from a high-relief, resistant outcrop which failed catastrophically, blocking the Eel River with an approximately 130-m-tall dam. Support for the resulting 55-km-long, 1.3-km3 lake includes subtle shorelines cut into bounding terrain, deltas, and lacustrine sediments radiocarbon dated to 22.5 ka. The landslide provides an explanation for the recent genetic divergence of local anadromous (ocean-run) steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) by blocking their migration route and causing gene flow between summer run and winter run reproductive ecotypes. Further, the dam arrested the prodigious flux of sediment down the Eel River; this cessation is recorded in marine sedimentary deposits as a 10-fold reduction in deposition rates of Eel-derived sediment and constitutes a rare example of a terrestrial event transmitted through the dispersal system and recorded offshore. PMID:22084068

Indigenous people's detection of rapid ecological change.

PubMed

Aswani, Shankar; Lauer, Matthew

2014-06-01

When sudden catastrophic events occur, it becomes critical for coastal communities to detect and respond to environmental transformations because failure to do so may undermine overall ecosystem resilience and threaten people's livelihoods. We therefore asked how capable of detecting rapid ecological change following massive environmental disruptions local, indigenous people are. We assessed the direction and periodicity of experimental learning of people in the Western Solomon Islands after a tsunami in 2007. We compared the results of marine science surveys with local ecological knowledge of the benthos across 3 affected villages and 3 periods before and after the tsunami. We sought to determine how people recognize biophysical changes in the environment before and after catastrophic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis and whether people have the ability to detect ecological changes over short time scales or need longer time scales to recognize changes. Indigenous people were able to detect changes in the benthos over time. Detection levels differed between marine science surveys and local ecological knowledge sources over time, but overall patterns of statistically significant detection of change were evident for various habitats. Our findings have implications for marine conservation, coastal management policies, and disaster-relief efforts because when people are able to detect ecological changes, this, in turn, affects how they exploit and manage their marine resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Landslide-dammed paleolake perturbs marine sedimentation and drives genetic change in anadromous fish.

PubMed

Mackey, Benjamin H; Roering, Joshua J; Lamb, Michael P

2011-11-22

Large bedrock landslides have been shown to modulate rates and processes of river activity by forming dams, forcing upstream aggradation of water and sediment, and generating catastrophic outburst floods. Less apparent is the effect of large landslide dams on river ecosystems and marine sedimentation. Combining analyses of 1-m resolution topographic data (acquired via airborne laser mapping) and field investigation, we present evidence for a large, landslide-dammed paleolake along the Eel River, CA. The landslide mass initiated from a high-relief, resistant outcrop which failed catastrophically, blocking the Eel River with an approximately 130-m-tall dam. Support for the resulting 55-km-long, 1.3-km(3) lake includes subtle shorelines cut into bounding terrain, deltas, and lacustrine sediments radiocarbon dated to 22.5 ka. The landslide provides an explanation for the recent genetic divergence of local anadromous (ocean-run) steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) by blocking their migration route and causing gene flow between summer run and winter run reproductive ecotypes. Further, the dam arrested the prodigious flux of sediment down the Eel River; this cessation is recorded in marine sedimentary deposits as a 10-fold reduction in deposition rates of Eel-derived sediment and constitutes a rare example of a terrestrial event transmitted through the dispersal system and recorded offshore.

Ultimate predators: lionfish have evolved to circumvent prey risk assessment abilities.

PubMed

Lönnstedt, Oona M; McCormick, Mark I

2013-01-01

Invasive species cause catastrophic alterations to communities worldwide by changing the trophic balance within ecosystems. Ever since their introduction in the mid 1980's common red lionfish, Pterois volitans, are having dramatic impacts on the Caribbean ecosystem by displacing native species and disrupting food webs. Introduced lionfish capture prey at extraordinary rates, altering the composition of benthic communities. Here we demonstrate that the extraordinary success of the introduced lionfish lies in its capacity to circumvent prey risk assessment abilities as it is virtually undetectable by prey species in its native range. While experienced prey damselfish, Chromis viridis, respond with typical antipredator behaviours when exposed to a common predatory rock cod (Cephalopholis microprion) they fail to visibly react to either the scent or visual presentation of the red lionfish, and responded only to the scent (not the visual cue) of a lionfish of a different genus, Dendrochirus zebra. Experienced prey also had much higher survival when exposed to the two non-invasive predators compared to P. volitans. The cryptic nature of the red lionfish has enabled it to be destructive as a predator and a highly successful invasive species.

Keystone effects of an alien top-predator stem extinctions of native mammals

PubMed Central

Letnic, Mike; Koch, Freya; Gordon, Chris; Crowther, Mathew S.; Dickman, Christopher R.

2009-01-01

Alien predators can have catastrophic effects on ecosystems and are thought to be much more harmful to biodiversity than their native counterparts. However, trophic cascade theory and the mesopredator release hypothesis predict that the removal of top predators will result in the reorganization of trophic webs and loss of biodiversity. Using field data collected throughout arid Australia, we provide evidence that removal of an alien top-predator, the dingo, has cascading effects through lower trophic levels. Dingo removal was linked to increased activity of herbivores and an invasive mesopredator, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), and to the loss of grass cover and native species of small mammals. Using species distribution data, we predict that reintroducing or maintaining dingo populations would produce a net benefit for the conservation of threatened native mammals across greater than 2.42 × 106 km2 of Australia. Our study provides evidence that an alien top predator can assume a keystone role and be beneficial for biodiversity conservation, and also that mammalian carnivores more generally can generate strong trophic cascades in terrestrial ecosystems. PMID:19535372

The shifting seasonality of productivity in California during the 2015 drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, X.; Lee, J. E.

2016-12-01

Drought can significantly affect the ecosystem productivity through increasing surface temperature and reducing water availability. Accurately assessing how drought impacts the ecosystem productivity is critical to understand the terrestrial carbon cycle and food security; however, the assessment has been unclear partly because of lacking spatially-explicit means of measuring photosynthesis. The 2012-2015 California drought is considered to be one of the largest droughts in California during the last 1000 years. Here we used multiple satellite products including the ground meteorological and eddy covariance measurements and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), a proxy for terrestrial productivity, to estimate the change in the seasonal gross primary productivity (GPP) in California during the drought years, especially in 2015 when the drought was at its fourth consecutive year. We show that with the decreasing water availability since 2012, SIF of all four vegetation types (forests, crops, savannas, and grasslands) showed significant decrease, shifting the peak-growing season about a month earlier, similar to the shift observed from the available flux-tower measurements. During 2015, vegetation productivity in forests and savannas increased in the spring (Jan-Apr) due to warm temperature and increased rainfall in the previous year, but the enhancement quickly diminished due to reduction in soil moisture. Overall, GPP decreased in more than 70% of the vegetation in California, and 50-70% of the vegetation display a negative abnormality beyond one standard deviation from the normal trend. Eddy covariance tower measurements suggested that the net carbon storage also decreased as a result of greater reduction in GPP comparing with the ecosystem respiration. We conclude that an increase in future drought events and intensity would likely shift the peak growing season earlier and shorten the growing season.

Altered peat hydrophysical properties following drainage and wildfire increases peatland vulnerability to ecosystem regime shift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waddington, James; Kettridge, Nick; Sherwood, James; Granath, Gustaf

2015-04-01

Northern peatlands represent a globally significant carbon reservoir, composed largely of legacy carbon which is no longer part of the active carbon cycle. However, it is unclear whether this legacy carbon is vulnerable as a result of enhanced peat smouldering and combustion under the moderate drying conditions predicted for northern peatlands as a result of climate change and/or disturbance from forestry, mining, and associated transport development. A significant loss in legacy carbon as a result of wildfire has already been observed in smaller tropical peatlands where deep peat soils have been destabilized due to severe drainage and a shift in vegetation. Capitalizing on a unique long-term experiment, we quantify the post-wildfire recovery of a northern peatland several decades post drainage. We show that the moderate drop in water table position predicted for most northern regions triggers a shift in vegetation composition, previously observed within only severely disturbed tropical peatlands, when accompanied by wildfire. The combined impact of moderate drainage followed by wildfire resulted in a shift of the peat surface down the peat profile, exposing denser peat at the surface. In undisturbed northern peatlands where depth of burn is typically low, low-density near-surface peats help regulate water-table position and near-surface moisture availability post-fire, both of which are favourable to Sphagnum recolonization. As a result of drainage and fire at the study site, the self-regulating properties of the low-density Sphagnum surface were lost. We demonstrate that changes in peat hydrophysical properties increased hydrological limitations to Sphagnum recovery leading to the conversion to a non-carbon accumulating shrub-grass ecosystem. This new ecosystem is likely to experience a low intensity, high frequency wildfire regime, which will further deplete the legacy carbon stored in the peat.

Causes and consequences of hypoxia on the Western Black Sea Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedrich, Jana; Gomoiu, Marian-Trajan; Naeher, Sebastian; Secrieru, Dan; Teaca, Adrian

2013-04-01

The Black Sea, containing the world's largest natural anoxic basin since ca 7500 years (Jones & Gagnon 1994), suffers from combined effects of anthropogenic eutrophication, overfishing and climate variability (Oguz & Gilbert 2007). We discuss causes for hypoxia in western shelf waters. Freshwater runoff by the large rivers Danube, Dniester and Dnieper results in strong thermohaline stratification that limits bottom water ventilation on the north-western shelf during warm seasons. This makes the western shelf generally prone to oxygen deficiency. During autumn and winter, the thermohaline stratification is eroded by frequent storms and the water column is re-oxygenated. The causal chain of anthropogenic eutrophication since the 1970s led to seasonal hypoxia on the western shelf for more than 20 years causing the catastrophic decline of key shelf habitats (Mee et al. 2005). More frequent and intense algal blooms, red tides (i.e. Noctiluca, Prorocentrum cordatum) and changes in species composition in phytoplankton resulted in deposition of surplus organic matter on the seafloor increasing the oxygen demand, with serious consequences for pelagic and benthic ecosystem structure and functioning. During hypoxia, release of reduced substances like ammonia and phosphate from the sediment to the water fuelled eutrophication internally (Friedrich et al. 2002). The combination of existing data with those gained during EU FP7 HYPOX on the Romanian shelf enables to assess the development of bottom water hypoxia and changes in benthic community and hence, the current state and trends in recovery of the Romanian Black Sea shelf ecosystem. Mud worms are the winners of eutrophication and hypoxia, whereas filter feeders like Mytilus galloprovincialis and Acanthocardia paucicostata are the losers. The western shelf benthic ecosystem showed a significant reduction in species diversity, a reduction of biofilter strength due to the loss of filter-feeder populations and flourishing of opportunistic species such as worms. Following the economic collapse of eastern European countries during the 1990s, riverine nutrient loads decreased and the ecosystem is showing signs of slow recovery, such as a decrease in the frequency and duration of hypoxic events. However, nutrient fluxes from the sediments did not decrease significantly (Friedrich et al. 2010). We observe slight recovery of the macrobenthic community structure in terms of species numbers in the Romanian pre-Danubian sector. Opportunistic species, e.g., ascidians, worms and fast growing filamentous algae are currently filling ecologic niches left by the past ecosystem collapse. References Friedrich, J., Cociasu, A., & Mee, L. D. (2010). Historical legacy of Danube River nutrient discharge and eutrophication in the North-Western Black Sea - Nutrient recycling in the shelf sediments. Danube News, 12(22), 7-9. Friedrich J., Dinkel C., Friedl G., Pimenov N., Wijsman J., Gomoiu M.T., Cociasu A., Popa L. & Wehrli B. (2002). Benthic Nutrient Cycling and Diagenetic Pathways in the North-western Black Sea. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 54, 369-383. Jones G.A. & Gagnon A.R. (1994). Radiocarbon chronology of Black Sea sediments. Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers, 41, 531-557. Mee L.D., Friedrich J. & Gomoiu M.-T. (2005). Restoring the Black Sea in times of uncertainty. Oceanography, 18, 32-43. Oguz, T. and Gilbert, D. (2007). Abrupt transitions of the top-down controlled Black Sea pelagic ecosystem during 1960-2000: Evidence for regime-shifts under strong fishery exploitation and nutrient enrichment modulated by climate-induced variations. Deep-Sea Research I: doi:10.1016/j.dsr.200609.200010.

Recent drought effects on ecosystem carbon uptake in California ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Guan, K.; Brodrick, P. G.; Berry, J. A.; Asner, G. P.

2016-12-01

California is one of the Earth's most biodiverse places and most of California has experienced an extreme (millennium scale) drought in the period of 2012-2015. Although the effect of the drought on the water resources have been well studied, the responses of ecosystems has not been explored in this detail. This study used advanced remotely sensed data (e.g., remotely sensed vegetation indices and solar-induced fluorescence), an ecosystem model, and model-data fusion techniques to study the impacts of the severe drought on ecosystem carbon uptakes in California. We have found that: (1) the drought has significantly suppressed carbon uptake and light use efficiency in California ecosystems - except in the semi-deserts, and the moist forests in the northern coast; (2) effects on the photosynthetic capacity of the ecosystems extends after the drought is relieved; and (3) the drought has shifted both the timing and magnitude of the seasonality of the carbon uptake in non-forested regions. These findings provide a better understanding of the impacts of droughts, and provide an improved basis for prediction of ecosystem responses under a more extreme climate in the future.

Effects of low and high salinity regimes on seasonal gametogenesis of the ribbed mussel Geukensia granosissima in coastal Louisiana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Honig, Aaron; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Supan, John

2014-01-01

Benthic intertidal bivalves play an essential role in estuarine ecosystems by contributing to habitat provision, water filtration, and host vegetation productivity. As such, ecosystem level changes that impact population distributions and persistence of local bivalve populations may have large ecosystem level consequences, making it important to better understand the population ecology of native bivalves. In order to determine potential impacts of shifting salinity and temperature regimes along the northern Gulf of Mexico, the seasonal timing of gametogenesis in the Gulf estuarine ribbed mussel, Geukensia granossisima, was examined across a salinity gradient in southeastern Louisiana, from July 2011 through October 2012. Ten mussels were randomly sampled monthly from low (~ 5) and high (~25) salinity marsh sites in southeastern Louisiana, and histologically processed to determine the seasonal progression of gametogenesis. Peak ripeness occurred at both sites between April and September, was positively correlated with temperature, and coincided with seasonal shifts in salinity. Mussels located in lower salinity waters demonstrated a shorter period of gametogenesis, and lower rates of ripeness indicating that changes in salinity regimes may impact long-term population dynamics.

Observational information on a temperate reef community helps understanding the marine climate and ecosystem shift of the 1980-90s.

PubMed

Gatti, Giulia; Bianchi, Carlo Nike; Montefalcone, Monica; Venturini, Sara; Diviacco, Giovanni; Morri, Carla

2017-01-15

The dearth of long-time series hampers the measurement of the ecosystem change that followed the global marine climate shift of the 1980-90s. The sessile communities of Portofino Promontory reefs (Ligurian Sea, NW Mediterranean) have been discontinuously studied since the 1950s. Collating information from various sources, three periods of investigations have been distinguished: 1) 1950-70s; 2) 1980-90s; 3) 2000-10s. A cooler phase in time 1 was followed by a rapid warming in time 2, to stabilize at about 0.5°C higher in time 3. Human pressure grew impressively, especially after the establishment of a MPA in 1999. Multivariate analyses evidenced a major change of community composition in time 2. Some species disappeared or got rarer, many found refuge at depth, and among the newcomers there were recently introduced alien species. This study demonstrated the importance of descriptive historical data to understand magnitude and pattern of change in the long term evolution of marine ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prescribed fire and its impacts on ecosystem services in the UK.

PubMed

Harper, Ashleigh R; Doerr, Stefan H; Santin, Cristina; Froyd, Cynthia A; Sinnadurai, Paul

2018-05-15

The impacts of vegetation fires on ecosystems are complex and varied affecting a range of important ecosystem services. Fire has the potential to affect the physicochemical and ecological status of water systems, alter several aspects of the carbon cycle (e.g. above- and below-ground carbon storage) and trigger changes in vegetation type and structure. Globally, fire is an essential part of land management in fire-prone regions in, e.g. Australia, the USA and some Mediterranean countries to mitigate the likelihood of catastrophic wildfires and sustain healthy ecosystems. In the less-fire prone UK, fire has a long history of usage in management for enhancing the productivity of heather, red grouse and sheep. This distinctly different socioeconomic tradition of burning underlies some of the controversy in recent decades in the UK around the use of fire. Negative public opinion and opposition from popular media have highlighted concerns around the detrimental impacts burning can have on the health and diversity of upland habitats. It is evident there are many gaps in the current knowledge around the environmental impacts of prescribed burning in less fire-prone regions (e.g. UK). Land owners and managers require a greater level of certainty on the advantages and disadvantages of prescribed burning in comparison to other techniques to better inform management practices. This paper addresses this gap by providing a critical review of published work and future research directions related to the impacts of prescribed fire on three key aspects of ecosystem services: (i) water quality, (ii) carbon dynamics and (iii) habitat composition and structure (biodiversity). Its overall aims are to provide guidance based on the current state-of-the-art for researchers, land owners, managers and policy makers on the potential effects of the use of burning and to inform the wider debate about the place of fire in modern conservation and land management in humid temperate ecosystems. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in racing Thoroughbreds at the Hong Kong Jockey Club.

PubMed

Sun, T C; Riggs, C M; Cogger, N; Wright, J; Al-Alawneh, J I

2018-04-19

Reports of fractures in racehorses have predominantly focused on catastrophic injuries, and there is limited data identifying the location and incidence of fractures that did not result in a fatal outcome. To describe the nature and the incidence of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing at the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) over seven racing seasons. Retrospective cohort study. Data of fractures sustained in horses while racing and of race characteristics were extracted from the HKJC Veterinary Management Information System (VMIS) and Racing Information System (RIS) respectively. The fracture event was determined from the first clinical entry for each specific injury. The incidence rates of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures were calculated per 1000 racing starts for racetrack, age, racing season, sex and trainer. 179 first fracture events occurred in 64,807 racing starts. The incidence rate of non-catastrophic fractures was 2.2 per 1000 racing starts and of catastrophic fractures was 0.6 per 1000 racing starts. Fractures of the proximal sesamoid bones represented 55% of all catastrophic fractures while the most common non-catastrophic fractures involved the carpus and the first phalanx. Significant associations were detected between the incidence of non-catastrophic fractures and sex, trainer and racing season. The first fracture event was used to calculate the incidence rate in this study and may have resulted in underestimation of the true incidence rate of fractures in this population. However, given the low number of recorded fracture events compared to the size of the study population, this underestimation is likely to be small. There were 3.6 times as many non-catastrophic fractures as catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing in Hong Kong between 2004 and 2011. Non-catastrophic fractures interfere with race training schedules and may predispose to catastrophic fracture. Future analytical studies on non-catastrophic racing fractures should be a priority for the racing industry. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Evaluating ecosystem services provided by non-native species: an experimental test in California grasslands.

PubMed

Stein, Claudia; Hallett, Lauren M; Harpole, W Stanley; Suding, Katharine N

2014-01-01

The concept of ecosystem services--the benefits that nature provides to human's society--has gained increasing attention over the past decade. Increasing global abiotic and biotic change, including species invasions, is threatening the secure delivery of these ecosystem services. Efficient evaluation methods of ecosystem services are urgently needed to improve our ability to determine management strategies and restoration goals in face of these new emerging ecosystems. Considering a range of multiple ecosystem functions may be a useful way to determine such strategies. We tested this framework experimentally in California grasslands, where large shifts in species composition have occurred since the late 1700's. We compared a suite of ecosystem functions within one historic native and two non-native species assemblages under different grazing intensities to address how different species assemblages vary in provisioning, regulatory and supporting ecosystem services. Forage production was reduced in one non-native assemblage (medusahead). Cultural ecosystem services, such as native species diversity, were inherently lower in both non-native assemblages, whereas most other services were maintained across grazing intensities. All systems provided similar ecosystem services under the highest grazing intensity treatment, which simulated unsustainable grazing intensity. We suggest that applying a more comprehensive ecosystem framework that considers multiple ecosystem services to evaluate new emerging ecosystems is a valuable tool to determine management goals and how to intervene in a changing ecosystem.

Seabirds as indicators of marine ecosystems: Introduction: A modern role for seabirds as indicators

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piatt, John F.; Sydeman, William J.; Wiese, Francis

2007-01-01

A key requirement for implementing ecosystem-based management is to obtain timely information on significant fluctuations in the ecosystem (Botsford et al. 1997). However, obtaining all necessary information about physical and biological changes at appropriate temporal and spatial scales is a daunting task. Intuitively, one might assume that physical data are more important for the interpretation of ecosystem changes than biological data, but analyses of time series data suggest otherwise: physical data are more erratic and often confusing over the short term compared to biological data, which tend to fluctuate less on annual time scales (Hare & Mantua 2000). Even so, biological time-series may also be confusing when coexisting marine species respond differently to ecosystem variability. For example, while warming temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska following the 1976 to 1977 regime shift favored an increase in gadoids and flatfish, a variety of forage fish and pandalid shrimp species virtually disappeared (Anderson & Piatt 1999). Zooplankton communities in the Gulf of Alaska also demonstrated similar patterns of response (Francis et al. 1998). At the basin scale, favorable conditions for salmon in Alaska following the regime shift were matched inversely by poor conditions in the California Current (Francis et al. 1998). In marine birds, subtropical species increased, while subarctic ones decreased during a warming phase in the southern California Bight. Clearly, no single index can tell the whole story accurately. Multi-species, multi-region, and multi-trophic level approaches are needed to quantify fluctuations in marine ecosystem processes and in the distribution and abundance of its inhabitants, to determine critical parameter thresholds and to use this information in management and marine conservation.

Responses of belowground communities to large aboveground herbivores: Meta-analysis reveals biome-dependent patterns and critical research gaps.

PubMed

Andriuzzi, Walter S; Wall, Diana H

2017-09-01

The importance of herbivore-plant and soil biota-plant interactions in terrestrial ecosystems is amply recognized, but the effects of aboveground herbivores on soil biota remain challenging to predict. To find global patterns in belowground responses to vertebrate herbivores, we performed a meta-analysis of studies that had measured abundance or activity of soil organisms inside and outside field exclosures (areas that excluded herbivores). Responses were often controlled by climate, ecosystem type, and dominant herbivore identity. Soil microfauna and especially root-feeding nematodes were negatively affected by herbivores in subarctic sites. In arid ecosystems, herbivore presence tended to reduce microbial biomass and nitrogen mineralization. Herbivores decreased soil respiration in subarctic ecosystems and increased it in temperate ecosystems, but had no net effect on microbial biomass or nitrogen mineralization in those ecosystems. Responses of soil fauna, microbial biomass, and nitrogen mineralization shifted from neutral to negative with increasing herbivore body size. Responses of animal decomposers tended to switch from negative to positive with increasing precipitation, but also differed among taxa, for instance Oribatida responded negatively to herbivores, whereas Collembola did not. Our findings imply that losses and gains of aboveground herbivores will interact with climate and land use changes, inducing functional shifts in soil communities. To conceptualize the mechanisms behind our findings and link them with previous theoretical frameworks, we propose two complementary approaches to predict soil biological responses to vertebrate herbivores, one focused on an herbivore body size gradient, and the other on a climate severity gradient. Major research gaps were revealed, with tropical biomes, protists, and soil macrofauna being especially overlooked. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Deep time ocean hypoxia: The impact on Jurassic marine ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caswell, B. A.; Frid, C. L. J.

2016-02-01

In order to understand how the environment will change over the next 100-1000 years and how this will impact the biosphere we need long-term data from a range of scenarios. This long-term perspective can be achieved by looking at periods of comparable environmental change in Earth history. Two past periods of ocean deoxygenation, 150 and 183 million years ago, are compared: (1) a period of global climate change, analogous to that occurring today, and (2) a period of regional hypoxia associated with changing circulation and nutrient supply. Palaeoecological changes in populations, communities, and seafloor functioning were investigated using data spanning millions of years at high resolution (100s-1000s years). Large shifts in biodiversity, body-size and the population-size of the dominant benthic taxa occurred in response to ocean anoxia. Ecological change spanned multiple trophic levels and suggest that changes in primary productivity impacted macrobenthos and their pelagic predators resulting in biogeographic range shifts. Quantitative analyses of changes in biological traits and core ecosystem functions show changes in nutrient regeneration, food web dynamics, and benthic-pelagic coupling. During ocean deoxygenation Jurassic ecosystems showed functional resilience and redundancy, but ultimately functioning collapsed. Quantification of the relationships between ecological change and various proxies for palaeoenvironmental change show that both hypoxia and primary productivity were important drivers. Environmental thresholds for local ecosystem change are identified. The patterns of Jurassic ecosystem change share many similarities with present-day hypoxic systems. Critically, the recovery from global anoxia was very slow and connectivity, with potential sources of new recruits, was an important contributor to ecosystem recovery. This emphasises the risks of relying on patterns of short-term and small-scale resilience when managing modern marine systems.

Prehistoric Human-environment Interactions and Their Impact on Aquatic Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackay, H.; Henderson, A. C. G.; van Hardenbroek, M.; Cavers, G.; Crone, A.; Davies, K. L.; Fonville, T. R.; Head, K.; Langdon, P. G.; Matton, R.; McCormick, F.; Murray, E.; Whitehouse, N. J.; Brown, A. G.

2017-12-01

One of the first widespread human-environment interactions in Scotland and Ireland occurred 3000 years ago when communities first inhabited wetlands, building artificial islands in lakes called crannogs. The reason behind the development and intermittent occupation of crannogs is unclear. We don't know if they were a response to changes in environment or if they were driven by societal influences. Furthermore, the impact of the construction, settlement and human activities on lake ecosystems is unknown, but is a key example of early anthropogenic signatures on the environment. Our research characterises the prehistoric human-environment interactions associated with crannogs by analysing geochemical and biological signals preserved within the crannog and wetland sediments. Records of anthropogenic activities and environmental change have been produced using lipid biomarkers of faecal matter, sedimentary DNA, and the remains of beetles, aquatic invertebrates (chironomids), siliceous algae (diatoms) and pollen. Results of these analyses reveal settlement occupations occurred in phases from the Iron Age to the Medieval Period. The main effects of occupation on the wetland ecosystems are nutrient-driven increases in productivity and shifts in aquatic species from clear water taxa to those associated with more eutrophic conditions. Crannog abandonment reduces nutrient inputs and therefore levels of aquatic productivity, as evidenced by decreases in the abundance of siliceous algae. Despite returns to pre-settlement nutrient and productivity levels, the lake ecosystems do not recover to their previous ecological state: dominant aquatic invertebrate and siliceous algae taxa shift in response to elevated levels of macrophytes within the lakes. Whilst these phase changes in lake ecosystems highlight their adaptive capacity to environmental change, the temporary human interactions associated with crannogs had persisting environmental impacts that shaped the long-term structure of the aquatic ecosystems.

Ecohydrology and biogeochemistry of seasonally-dry ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Porporato, A. M.

2010-12-01

The composition and the dynamic in various types of seasonally dry ecosystems are largely determined by rainfall seasonality and distribution. The intermittency of rainfall in these ecosystems has played a dominant role in the life cycle of native plants such that phenological events such as growth or reproduction have oftentimes become synchronized with the onset of the dry or the wet season. Characteristic amongst such types of ecosystems are the tropical dry and Mediterranean ecosystems, both of which receive similar amount of precipitation yet are markedly distinct in their synchronization of rainfall fluctuations and temperature. Seasonally dry ecosystems cover more than 16 million square kilometers in the tropics, with short but intense wet seasons followed by long dry seasons and elevated temperature throughout the year. Native vegetation grows during the wet season and adopts dormancy or seasonal deciduousness to cope with the dry season. In the Mediterranean climates, precipitations and temperature are out of phase, with wet temperate winters and hot dry summers. Dimorphic root systems are prevalent, where deep rooted plants exploit the winter recharge while the shallow rooted species take advantage of the infrequent summer rains. Using a stochastic soil moisture model we analyze how temporal shifts, or the lack thereof, in temperature and precipitation patterns affect the development of water stress during the dry season and its feedbacks on soil-plant biogeochemistry. We especially focus on the role of differences in temperature and seasonal potential evapotranspiration between tropical dry and Mediterranean climates. We also compare irrigation needs and the effects of projected climatic conditions in those regions. Understanding how plants adopt different water use strategies in the context of shifted climatic patterns will shed light on how these regions of high biodiversity may cope with rapidly-changing climatic conditions.

On the difference in the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 between deciduous and evergreen forests in the southeastern United States

Treesearch

Kimberly A. Novick; A. Christopher Oishi; Eric J. Ward; Mario B.S. Siqueira; Jehn-Yih Juang; Paul C. Stoy

2015-01-01

The southeastern United States is experiencing a rapid regional increase in the ratio of pine to deciduous forest ecosystems at the same time it is experiencing changes in climate. This study is focused on exploring how these shifts will affect the carbon sink capacity of southeastern US forests, which we show here are among the strongest carbon sinks in the...

Moderate forest disturbance as a stringent test for gap and big-leaf models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Fisk, J.; Holm, J. A.; Bailey, V. L.; Gough, C. M.

2014-12-01

Disturbance-induced tree mortality is a key factor regulating the carbon balance of a forest, but tree mortality and its subsequent effects are poorly represented processes in terrestrial ecosystem models. In particular, it is unclear whether models can robustly simulate moderate (non-catastrophic) disturbances, which tend to increase biological and structural complexity and are increasingly common in aging U.S. forests. We tested whether three forest ecosystem models—Biome-BGC, a classic big-leaf model, and the ED and ZELIG gap-oriented models—could reproduce the resilience to moderate disturbance observed in an experimentally manipulated forest (the Forest Accelerated Succession Experiment in northern Michigan, USA, in which 38% of canopy dominants were stem girdled and compared to control plots). Each model was parameterized, spun up, and disturbed following similar protocols, and run for 5 years post-disturbance. The models replicated observed declines in aboveground biomass well. Biome-BGC captured the timing and rebound of observed leaf area index (LAI), while ED and ZELIG correctly estimated the magnitude of LAI decline. None of the models fully captured the observed post-disturbance C fluxes. Biome-BGC net primary production (NPP) was correctly resilient, but for the wrong reasons, while ED and ZELIG exhibited large, unobserved drops in NPP and net ecosystem production. The biological mechanisms proposed to explain the observed rapid resilience of the C cycle are typically not incorporated by these or other models. As a result we expect that most ecosystem models, developed to simulate processes following stand-replacing disturbances, will not simulate well the gradual and less extensive tree mortality characteristic of moderate disturbances.

Moderate forest disturbance as a stringent test for gap and big-leaf models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond-Lamberty, B.; Fisk, J.; Holm, J. A.; Bailey, V.; Gough, C. M.

2014-07-01

Disturbance-induced tree mortality is a key factor regulating the carbon balance of a forest, but tree mortality and its subsequent effects are poorly represented processes in terrestrial ecosystem models. In particular, it is unclear whether models can robustly simulate moderate (non-catastrophic) disturbances, which tend to increase biological and structural complexity and are increasingly common in aging US forests. We tested whether three forest ecosystem models - Biome-BGC, a classic big-leaf model, and the ED and ZELIG gap-oriented models - could reproduce the resilience to moderate disturbance observed in an experimentally manipulated forest (the Forest Accelerated Succession Experiment in northern Michigan, USA, in which 38% of canopy dominants were stem girdled and compared to control plots). Each model was parameterized, spun up, and disturbed following similar protocols, and run for 5 years post-disturbance. The models replicated observed declines in aboveground biomass well. Biome-BGC captured the timing and rebound of observed leaf area index (LAI), while ED and ZELIG correctly estimated the magnitude of LAI decline. None of the models fully captured the observed post-disturbance C fluxes. Biome-BGC net primary production (NPP) was correctly resilient, but for the wrong reasons, while ED and ZELIG exhibited large, unobserved drops in NPP and net ecosystem production. The biological mechanisms proposed to explain the observed rapid resilience of the C cycle are typically not incorporated by these or other models. As a result we expect that most ecosystem models, developed to simulate processes following stand-replacing disturbances, will not simulate well the gradual and less extensive tree mortality characteristic of moderate disturbances.

Heritability of Pain Catastrophizing and Associations with Experimental Pain Outcomes: A Twin Study

PubMed Central

Trost, Zina; Strachan, Eric; Sullivan, Michael; Vervoort, Tine; Avery, Ally R.; Afari, Niloofar

2014-01-01

The current study employed a twin paradigm to examine the genetic and environmental contributions to pain catastrophizing as well as the observed association between pain catastrophizing and cold pressor task (CPT) outcomes. Male and female monozygotic (n=206) and dizygotic twins (n=194) from the University of Washington Twin Registry completed a measure of pain catastrophizing and performed a CPT challenge. As expected, pain catastrophizing emerged as a significant predictor of several CPT outcomes, including cold pressor immersion tolerance, pain tolerance, and delayed pain rating. The heritability estimate for pain catastrophizing was found to be 37% with the remaining 63% of variance attributable to unique environmental influence. Additionally, the observed associations between pain catastrophizing and CPT outcomes were not found attributable to shared genetics or environmental exposure, suggesting a direct relationship between catastrophizing and experimental pain outcomes. This study is the first to examine the heritability of pain catastrophizing and potential processes by which pain catastrophizing is related to experimental pain response. PMID:25599234

Coral-macroalgal phase shifts or reef resilience: links with diversity and functional roles of herbivorous fishes on the Great Barrier Reef

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheal, A. J.; MacNeil, M. Aaron; Cripps, E.; Emslie, M. J.; Jonker, M.; Schaffelke, B.; Sweatman, H.

2010-12-01

Changes from coral to macroalgal dominance following disturbances to corals symbolize the global degradation of coral reefs. The development of effective conservation measures depends on understanding the causes of such phase shifts. The prevailing view that coral-macroalgal phase shifts commonly occur due to insufficient grazing by fishes is based on correlation with overfishing and inferences from models and small-scale experiments rather than on long-term quantitative field studies of fish communities at affected and resilient sites. Consequently, the specific characteristics of herbivorous fish communities that most promote reef resilience under natural conditions are not known, though this information is critical for identifying vulnerable ecosystems. In this study, 11 years of field surveys recorded the development of the most persistent coral-macroalgal phase shift (>7 years) yet observed on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef (GBR). This shift followed extensive coral mortality caused by thermal stress (coral bleaching) and damaging storms. Comparisons with two similar reefs that suffered similar disturbances but recovered relatively rapidly demonstrated that the phase shift occurred despite high abundances of one herbivore functional group (scraping/excavating parrotfishes: Labridae). However, the shift was strongly associated with low fish herbivore diversity and low abundances of algal browsers (predominantly Siganidae) and grazers/detritivores (Acanthuridae), suggesting that one or more of these factors underpin reef resilience and so deserve particular protection. Herbivorous fishes are not harvested on the GBR, and the phase shift was not enhanced by unusually high nutrient levels. This shows that unexploited populations of herbivorous fishes cannot ensure reef resilience even under benign conditions and suggests that reefs could lose resilience under relatively low fishing pressure. Predictions of more severe and widespread coral mortality due to global climate change emphasize the need for more effective identification and protection of ecosystem components that are critical for the prevention of coral reef phase shifts.

Valuing ecosystem services in terms of ecological risks and returns.

PubMed

Abson, David J; Termansen, Mette

2011-04-01

The economic valuation of ecosystem services is a key policy tool in stemming losses of biological diversity. It is proposed that the loss of ecosystem function and the biological resources within ecosystems is due in part to the failure of markets to recognize the benefits humans derive from ecosystems. Placing monetary values on ecosystem services is often suggested as a necessary step in correcting such market failures. We consider the effects of valuing different types of ecosystem services within an economic framework. We argue that provisioning and regulating ecosystem services are generally produced and consumed in ways that make them amenable to economic valuation. The values associated with cultural ecosystem services lie outside the domain of economic valuation, but their worth may be expressed through noneconomic, deliberative forms of valuation. We argue that supporting ecosystem services are not of direct value and that the losses of such services can be expressed in terms of the effects of their loss on the risk to the provision of the directly valued ecosystem services they support. We propose a heuristic framework that considers the relations between ecological risks and returns in the provision of ecosystem services. The proposed ecosystem-service valuation framework, which allows the expression of the value of all types of ecosystem services, calls for a shift from static, purely monetary valuation toward the consideration of trade-offs between the current flow of benefits from ecosystems and the ability of those ecosystems to provide future flows. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

The helminth community of the wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus in a Mediterranean ecosystem in regeneration ten years after a wildfire.

PubMed

Fuentes, M V; Sainz-Elipe, S; Sáez-Durán, S; Galán-Puchades, M T

2010-03-01

This study was carried out 10 years after a wildfire in the Spanish Serra Calderona Natural Park, following a previous analysis comprising the first 5 years after the fire. Its primary aim was to elucidate the impact of this perturbation on the population biology of the wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus, and the repercussions on its helminth community in this regenerating Mediterranean ecosystem. Second, confirmation of the ability of the parasites to tolerate environmental stressors and the effects on their transmission strategies was sought. Five hundred and sixty-four individuals of A. sylvaticus were studied in a 9-year period, from the second to the tenth post-fire year: 408 mice from the burned area and 156 from the control--non-burned--area. The helminth community for both areas and the effect of intrinsic (host age and sex) and extrinsic (site, period and year of capture) factors on helminth prevalence, abundance and diversity, and species richness were analysed. Our findings show that, after an environmental disaster, the behaviour of helminth species might be related to their pre-catastrophe presence, their biological cycles, the host's immunological condition, the change of host dynamics, the direct effects of the perturbation, and the processes related to the re-establishment of the ecological balance of a devastated ecosystem.

The current biodiversity extinction event: scenarios for mitigation and recovery.

PubMed

Novacek, M J; Cleland, E E

2001-05-08

The current massive degradation of habitat and extinction of species is taking place on a catastrophically short timescale, and their effects will fundamentally reset the future evolution of the planet's biota. The fossil record suggests that recovery of global ecosystems has required millions or even tens of millions of years. Thus, intervention by humans, the very agents of the current environmental crisis, is required for any possibility of short-term recovery or maintenance of the biota. Many current recovery efforts have deficiencies, including insufficient information on the diversity and distribution of species, ecological processes, and magnitude and interaction of threats to biodiversity (pollution, overharvesting, climate change, disruption of biogeochemical cycles, introduced or invasive species, habitat loss and fragmentation through land use, disruption of community structure in habitats, and others). A much greater and more urgently applied investment to address these deficiencies is obviously warranted. Conservation and restoration in human-dominated ecosystems must strengthen connections between human activities, such as agricultural or harvesting practices, and relevant research generated in the biological, earth, and atmospheric sciences. Certain threats to biodiversity require intensive international cooperation and input from the scientific community to mitigate their harmful effects, including climate change and alteration of global biogeochemical cycles. In a world already transformed by human activity, the connection between humans and the ecosystems they depend on must frame any strategy for the recovery of the biota.

Integrated ecological and chemical food web accumulation modeling explains PAH temporal trends during regime shifts in a shallow lake.

PubMed

Kong, Xiangzhen; He, Wei; Qin, Ning; Liu, Wenxiu; Yang, Bin; Yang, Chen; Xu, Fuliu; Mooij, Wolf M; Koelmans, Albert A

2017-08-01

Shallow lakes can switch suddenly from a turbid situation with high concentrations of phytoplankton and other suspended solids to a vegetated state with clear water, and vice versa. These alternative stable states may have a substantial impact on the fate of hydrophobic organic compounds (HOCs). Models that are fit to simulate impacts from these complex interactions are scarce. We developed a contaminant fate model which is linked to an ecosystem model (PCLake) for shallow lakes. This integrated model was successful in simulating long-term dynamics (1953-2012) of representative polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the main biotic and abiotic components in a large shallow lake (Chaohu in China), which has undergone regime shifts in this period. Historical records from sediment cores were used to evaluate the model. The model revealed that regime shifts in shallow lakes had a strong impact on the fate of less hydrophobic compounds due to the large storage capacity of macrophytes, which accumulated up to 55.6% of phenanthrene in the clear state. The abrupt disappearance of macrophytes after the regime shift resulted in a sudden change in phenanthrene distribution, as the sediment became the major sink. For more hydrophobic compounds such as benzo(a)pyrene, the modeled impact of the regime shift was negligible for the whole environment, yet large for biotic compartments. This study is the first to provide a full mechanistic analysis of the impact of regime shifts on the fate of PAHs in a real lake ecosystem. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Organic-matter loading determines regime shifts and alternative states in an aquatic ecosystem

PubMed Central

Sirota, Jennie; Baiser, Benjamin; Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Ellison, Aaron M.

2013-01-01

Slow changes in underlying state variables can lead to “tipping points,” rapid transitions between alternative states (“regime shifts”) in a wide range of complex systems. Tipping points and regime shifts routinely are documented retrospectively in long time series of observational data. Experimental induction of tipping points and regime shifts is rare, but could lead to new methods for detecting impending tipping points and forestalling regime shifts. By using controlled additions of detrital organic matter (dried, ground arthropod prey), we experimentally induced a shift from aerobic to anaerobic states in a miniature aquatic ecosystem: the self-contained pools that form in leaves of the carnivorous northern pitcher plant, Sarracenia purpurea. In unfed controls, the concentration of dissolved oxygen ([O2]) in all replicates exhibited regular diurnal cycles associated with daytime photosynthesis and nocturnal plant respiration. In low prey-addition treatments, the regular diurnal cycles of [O2] were disrupted, but a regime shift was not detected. In high prey-addition treatments, the variance of the [O2] time series increased until the system tipped from an aerobic to an anaerobic state. In these treatments, replicate [O2] time series predictably crossed a tipping point at ∼45 h as [O2] was decoupled from diurnal cycles of photosynthesis and respiration. Increasing organic-matter loading led to predictable changes in [O2] dynamics, with high loading consistently driving the system past a well-defined tipping point. The Sarracenia microecosystem functions as a tractable experimental system in which to explore the forecasting and management of tipping points and alternative regimes. PMID:23613583

Competition from below for light and nutrients shifts productivity among tropical species.

PubMed

Ewel, John J; Mazzarino, María Julia

2008-12-02

Chance events such as seed dispersal determine the potential composition of plant communities, but the eventual assemblage is determined in large part by subsequent interactions among species. Postcolonization sorting also affects the ultimate composition of communities assembled by people for restoration, horticulture, or conservation. Thus, knowledge of the mechanisms controlling interspecific interactions in plant communities is important for explaining patterns observed in nature and predicting success or failure of utilitarian combinations. Relationships among species, especially those from studies of biological diversity and ecosystem functioning, are largely based on studies of short-lived, temperate-zone plants. Extrapolation to perennial plants in the humid tropics is risky because functional relationships among large-stature species change with time. Shifts in competitive relationships among 3 life forms--trees, palms, and perennial herbs--occurred during 13 yr in experimental tropical ecosystems. In 2 cases the novel competitive mechanism responsible for the shift was reduction in crown volume, and therefore light-capturing capability, of overtopping deciduous trees by intrusive growth from below a palm. In a third case, complementary resource use developed between 2 evergreen life forms (overstory tree and palm), probably because of differential nutrient acquisition. Species-level traits and adequate time for shifts in interspecific relationships to emerge are crucial for predicting community trajectories.

Conservation in the face of climate change: recent developments.

PubMed

Lawler, Joshua; Watson, James; Game, Edward

2015-01-01

An increased understanding of the current and potential future impacts of climate change has significantly influenced conservation in practice in recent years. Climate change has necessitated a shift toward longer planning time horizons, moving baselines, and evolving conservation goals and targets. This shift has resulted in new perspectives on, and changes in, the basic approaches practitioners use to conserve biodiversity. Restoration, spatial planning and reserve selection, connectivity modelling, extinction risk assessment, and species translocations have all been reimagined in the face of climate change. Restoration is being conducted with a new acceptance of uncertainty and an understanding that goals will need to shift through time. New conservation targets, such as geophysical settings and climatic refugia, are being incorporated into conservation plans. Risk assessments have begun to consider the potentially synergistic impacts of climate change and other threats. Assisted colonization has gained acceptance in recent years as a viable and necessary conservation tool. This evolution has paralleled a larger trend in conservation-a shift toward conservation actions that benefit both people and nature. As we look forward, it is clear that more change is on the horizon. To protect biodiversity and essential ecosystem services, conservation will need to anticipate the human response to climate change and to focus not only on resistance and resilience but on transitions to new states and new ecosystems.

Interannual variability, growth, reproduction and feeding of Pelagia noctiluca (Cnidaria: Scyphozoa) in the Straits of Messina (Central Mediterranean Sea): Linkages with temperature and diet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosa, S.; Pansera, M.; Granata, A.; Guglielmo, L.

2013-02-01

To identify some of the possible environmental factors stimulating the increasingly frequent outbreaks of the scyphomedusa Pelagia noctiluca in the Straits of Messina, we investigated its abundance, growth, reproduction and feeding over a 4-year period, from 2007 to 2011, at two coastal sites. Using either field investigations and manipulative experiments we show that, among the various factors considered, shifts in water temperature (influencing medusae metabolism, growth and reproduction rates) and the size structure of the zooplankton community (their natural preys) can promote the proliferation of P. noctiluca. In particular, we show that increased temperature let jellyfishes to grow more rapidly and reach exceptional sizes. We also report a peculiar opportunistic behavior of P. noctiluca, which makes this species a potentially strong competitor in the pelagic trophic web of the Straits ecosystem. We therefore propose that more frequent P. noctiluca outbreaks stimulated by increasing sea surface temperature and shifts in their prey availability and composition would become, in the near future, a major cause of ecosystem shift.

Tracking the rise of eukaryotes to ecological dominance with zinc isotopes.

PubMed

Isson, Terry T; Love, Gordon D; Dupont, Christopher L; Reinhard, Christopher T; Zumberge, Alex J; Asael, Dan; Gueguen, Bleuenn; McCrow, John; Gill, Ben C; Owens, Jeremy; Rainbird, Robert H; Rooney, Alan D; Zhao, Ming-Yu; Stueeken, Eva E; Konhauser, Kurt O; John, Seth G; Lyons, Timothy W; Planavsky, Noah J

2018-06-05

The biogeochemical cycling of zinc (Zn) is intimately coupled with organic carbon in the ocean. Based on an extensive new sedimentary Zn isotope record across Earth's history, we provide evidence for a fundamental shift in the marine Zn cycle ~800 million years ago. We discuss a wide range of potential drivers for this transition and propose that, within available constraints, a restructuring of marine ecosystems is the most parsimonious explanation for this shift. Using a global isotope mass balance approach, we show that a change in the organic Zn/C ratio is required to account for observed Zn isotope trends through time. Given the higher affinity of eukaryotes for Zn relative to prokaryotes, we suggest that a shift toward a more eukaryote-rich ecosystem could have provided a means of more efficiently sequestering organic-derived Zn. Despite the much earlier appearance of eukaryotes in the microfossil record (~1700 to 1600 million years ago), our data suggest a delayed rise to ecological prominence during the Neoproterozoic, consistent with the currently accepted organic biomarker records. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Output Power Limitations and Improvements in Passively Mode Locked GaAs/AlGaAs Quantum Well Lasers.

PubMed

Tandoi, Giuseppe; Ironside, Charles N; Marsh, John H; Bryce, A Catrina

2012-03-01

We report a novel approach for increasing the output power in passively mode locked semiconductor lasers. Our approach uses epitaxial structures with an optical trap in the bottom cladding that enlarges the vertical mode size to scale the pulse saturation energy. With this approach we demonstrate a very high peak power of 9.8 W per facet, at a repetition rate of 6.8 GHz and with pulse duration of 0.71 ps. In particular, we compare two GaAs/AlGaAs epilayer designs, a double quantum well design operating at 830 nm and a single quantum well design operating at 795 nm, with vertical mode sizes of 0.5 and 0.75 μm, respectively. We show that a larger mode size not only shifts the mode locking regime of operation towards higher powers, but also produces other improvements in respect of two main failure mechanisms that limit the output power: the catastrophic optical mirror damage and the catastrophic optical saturable absorber damage. For the 830 nm material structure, we also investigate the effect of non-absorbing mirrors on output power and mode locked operation of colliding pulse mode locked lasers.

Output Power Limitations and Improvements in Passively Mode Locked GaAs/AlGaAs Quantum Well Lasers

PubMed Central

Tandoi, Giuseppe; Ironside, Charles N.; Marsh, John H.; Bryce, A. Catrina

2013-01-01

We report a novel approach for increasing the output power in passively mode locked semiconductor lasers. Our approach uses epitaxial structures with an optical trap in the bottom cladding that enlarges the vertical mode size to scale the pulse saturation energy. With this approach we demonstrate a very high peak power of 9.8 W per facet, at a repetition rate of 6.8 GHz and with pulse duration of 0.71 ps. In particular, we compare two GaAs/AlGaAs epilayer designs, a double quantum well design operating at 830 nm and a single quantum well design operating at 795 nm, with vertical mode sizes of 0.5 and 0.75 μm, respectively. We show that a larger mode size not only shifts the mode locking regime of operation towards higher powers, but also produces other improvements in respect of two main failure mechanisms that limit the output power: the catastrophic optical mirror damage and the catastrophic optical saturable absorber damage. For the 830 nm material structure, we also investigate the effect of non-absorbing mirrors on output power and mode locked operation of colliding pulse mode locked lasers. PMID:23843678

Natural enemies govern ecosystem resilience in the face of extreme droughts.

PubMed

He, Qiang; Silliman, Brian R; Liu, Zezheng; Cui, Baoshan

2017-02-01

Severe droughts are on the rise in many regions. But thus far, attempts to predict when drought will cause a major regime shift or when ecosystems are resilient, often using plant drought tolerance models, have been frustrated. Here, we show that pressure from natural enemies regulates an ecosystem's resilience to severe droughts. Field experiments revealed that in protected salt marshes experiencing a severe drought, plant-eating grazers eliminated drought-stressed vegetation that could otherwise survive and recover from the climate extreme, transforming once lush marshes into persistent salt barrens. These results provide an explicit experimental demonstration for the obligatory role of natural enemies across the initiation, expansion and recovery stages of a natural ecosystem's collapse. Our study highlights that natural enemies can hasten an ecosystem's resilience to drought to much lower levels than currently predicted, calling for integration into climate change predictions and conservation strategies. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Wolves will not provide small-scale ecological restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belant, Jerrold L.; Adams, Layne G.

2010-01-01

Licht and colleagues (BioScience 60: 147–153) proposed a paradigm shift in wolf management to include the introductions of small, highly manipulated groups of wolves (Canis lupus) to confined natural areas to facilitate ecosystem recovery. Certainly, reductions or losses of apex predators from many regions worldwide have had profound effects on ecosystem characteristics (Soulé et al. 2003). Numerous efforts to restore or enhance predator populations through policy change or reintroductions have occurred, often with the intent to restore ecosystem function (Breitenmoser et al. 2001). However, in addition to the gargantuan technological and political challenges inherent in Licht and colleagues' proposal, we contend that intensively managed wolves will not restore natural ecosystem processes given the disparity in scale between these proposed actions and the ecosystem processes that wolves foster. Further, we note that predator-prey relationships are more complex than Licht suggested.

Decomposition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, Beth A.

2014-01-01

A cornerstone of ecosystem ecology, decomposition was recognized as a fundamental process driving the exchange of energy in ecosystems by early ecologists such as Lindeman 1942 and Odum 1960). In the history of ecology, studies of decomposition were incorporated into the International Biological Program in the 1960s to compare the nature of organic matter breakdown in various ecosystem types. Such studies still have an important role in ecological studies of today. More recent refinements have brought debates on the relative role microbes, invertebrates and environment in the breakdown and release of carbon into the atmosphere, as well as how nutrient cycling, production and other ecosystem processes regulated by decomposition may shift with climate change. Therefore, this bibliography examines the primary literature related to organic matter breakdown, but it also explores topics in which decomposition plays a key supporting role including vegetation composition, latitudinal gradients, altered ecosystems, anthropogenic impacts, carbon storage, and climate change models. Knowledge of these topics is relevant to both the study of ecosystem ecology as well projections of future conditions for human societies.

Habitat-Mediated Facilitation and Counteracting Ecosystem Engineering Interactively Influence Ecosystem Responses to Disturbance

PubMed Central

Eklöf, Johan S.; van der Heide, Tjisse; Donadi, Serena; van der Zee, Els M.; O'Hara, Robert; Eriksson, Britas Klemens

2011-01-01

Recovery of an ecosystem following disturbance can be severely hampered or even shift altogether when a point disturbance exceeds a certain spatial threshold. Such scale-dependent dynamics may be caused by preemptive competition, but may also result from diminished self-facilitation due to weakened ecosystem engineering. Moreover, disturbance can facilitate colonization by engineering species that alter abiotic conditions in ways that exacerbate stress on the original species. Consequently, establishment of such counteracting engineers might reduce the spatial threshold for the disturbance, by effectively slowing recovery and increasing the risk for ecosystem shifts to alternative states. We tested these predictions in an intertidal mudflat characterized by a two-state mosaic of hummocks (humps exposed during low tide) dominated by the sediment-stabilizing seagrass Zostera noltii) and hollows (low-tide waterlogged depressions dominated by the bioturbating lugworm Arenicola marina). In contrast to expectations, seagrass recolonized both natural and experimental clearings via lateral expansion and seemed unaffected by both clearing size and lugworm addition. Near the end of the growth season, however, an additional disturbance (most likely waterfowl grazing and/or strong hydrodynamics) selectively impacted recolonizing seagrass in the largest (1 m2) clearings (regardless of lugworm addition), and in those medium (0.25 m2) clearings where lugworms had been added nearly five months earlier. Further analyses showed that the risk for the disturbance increased with hollow size, with a threshold of 0.24 m2. Hollows of that size were caused by seagrass removal alone in the largest clearings, and by a weaker seagrass removal effect exacerbated by lugworm bioturbation in the medium clearings. Consequently, a sufficiently large disturbance increased the vulnerability of recolonizing seagrass to additional disturbance by weakening seagrass engineering effects (sediment stabilization). Meanwhile, the counteracting ecosystem engineering (lugworm bioturbation) reduced that threshold size. Therefore, scale-dependent interactions between habitat-mediated facilitation, competition and disturbance seem to maintain the spatial two-state mosaic in this ecosystem. PMID:21829719

Photosynthetic responses to temperature across leaf-canopy-ecosystem scales: a 15-year study in a Californian oak-grass savanna.

PubMed

Ma, Siyan; Osuna, Jessica L; Verfaillie, Joseph; Baldocchi, Dennis D

2017-06-01

Ecosystem CO 2 fluxes measured with eddy-covariance techniques provide a new opportunity to retest functional responses of photosynthesis to abiotic factors at the ecosystem level, but examining the effects of one factor (e.g., temperature) on photosynthesis remains a challenge as other factors may confound under circumstances of natural experiments. In this study, we developed a data mining framework to analyze a set of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes measured from three eddy-covariance towers, plus a suite of abiotic variables (e.g., temperature, solar radiation, air, and soil moisture) measured simultaneously, in a Californian oak-grass savanna from 2000 to 2015. Natural covariations of temperature and other factors caused remarkable confounding effects in two particular conditions: lower light intensity at lower temperatures and drier air and soil at higher temperatures. But such confounding effects may cancel out. At the ecosystem level, photosynthetic responses to temperature did follow a quadratic function on average. The optimum value of photosynthesis occurred within a narrow temperature range (i.e., optimum temperature, T opt ): 20.6 ± 0.6, 18.5 ± 0.7, 19.2 ± 0.5, and 19.0 ± 0.6 °C for the oak canopy, understory grassland, entire savanna, and open grassland, respectively. This paradigm confirms that photosynthesis response to ambient temperature changes is a functional relationship consistent across leaf-canopy-ecosystem scales. Nevertheless, T opt can shift with variations in light intensity, air dryness, or soil moisture. These findings will pave the way to a direct determination of thermal optima and limits of ecosystem photosynthesis, which can in turn provide a rich resource for baseline thresholds and dynamic response functions required for predicting global carbon balance and geographic shifts of vegetative communities in response to climate change.

Identifying Shifts in Leaf-Litter Ant Assemblages (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) across Ecosystem Boundaries Using Multiple Sampling Methods

PubMed Central

Wiezik, Michal; Svitok, Marek; Wieziková, Adela; Dovčiak, Martin

2015-01-01

Global or regional environmental changes in climate or land use have been increasingly implied in shifts in boundaries (ecotones) between adjacent ecosystems such as beech or oak-dominated forests and forest-steppe ecotones that frequently co-occur near the southern range limits of deciduous forest biome in Europe. Yet, our ability to detect changes in biological communities across these ecosystems, or to understand their environmental drivers, can be hampered when different sampling methods are required to characterize biological communities of the adjacent but ecologically different ecosystems. Ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) have been shown to be particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and vegetation and they require different sampling methods in closed vs. open habitats. We compared ant assemblages of closed-forests (beech- or oak-dominated) and open forest-steppe habitats in southwestern Carpathians using methods for closed-forest (litter sifting) and open habitats (pitfall trapping), and developed an integrated sampling approach to characterize changes in ant assemblages across these adjacent ecosystems. Using both methods, we collected 5,328 individual ant workers from 28 species. Neither method represented ant communities completely, but pitfall trapping accounted for more species (24) than litter sifting (16). Although pitfall trapping characterized differences in species richness and composition among the ecosystems better, with beech forest being most species poor and ecotone most species rich, litter sifting was more successful in identifying characteristic litter-dwelling species in oak-dominated forest. The integrated sampling approach using both methods yielded more accurate characterization of species richness and composition, and particularly so in species-rich forest-steppe habitat where the combined sample identified significantly higher number of species compared to either of the two methods on their own. Thus, an integrated sampling approach should be used to fully characterize changes in ant assemblages across ecosystem boundaries, or with vegetation change over time, and particularly so in species-rich habitats such as forest-steppe ecotones. PMID:26226140

Identifying Shifts in Leaf-Litter Ant Assemblages (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) across Ecosystem Boundaries Using Multiple Sampling Methods.

PubMed

Wiezik, Michal; Svitok, Marek; Wieziková, Adela; Dovčiak, Martin

2015-01-01

Global or regional environmental changes in climate or land use have been increasingly implied in shifts in boundaries (ecotones) between adjacent ecosystems such as beech or oak-dominated forests and forest-steppe ecotones that frequently co-occur near the southern range limits of deciduous forest biome in Europe. Yet, our ability to detect changes in biological communities across these ecosystems, or to understand their environmental drivers, can be hampered when different sampling methods are required to characterize biological communities of the adjacent but ecologically different ecosystems. Ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) have been shown to be particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and vegetation and they require different sampling methods in closed vs. open habitats. We compared ant assemblages of closed-forests (beech- or oak-dominated) and open forest-steppe habitats in southwestern Carpathians using methods for closed-forest (litter sifting) and open habitats (pitfall trapping), and developed an integrated sampling approach to characterize changes in ant assemblages across these adjacent ecosystems. Using both methods, we collected 5,328 individual ant workers from 28 species. Neither method represented ant communities completely, but pitfall trapping accounted for more species (24) than litter sifting (16). Although pitfall trapping characterized differences in species richness and composition among the ecosystems better, with beech forest being most species poor and ecotone most species rich, litter sifting was more successful in identifying characteristic litter-dwelling species in oak-dominated forest. The integrated sampling approach using both methods yielded more accurate characterization of species richness and composition, and particularly so in species-rich forest-steppe habitat where the combined sample identified significantly higher number of species compared to either of the two methods on their own. Thus, an integrated sampling approach should be used to fully characterize changes in ant assemblages across ecosystem boundaries, or with vegetation change over time, and particularly so in species-rich habitats such as forest-steppe ecotones.

Climate-mediated changes in marine ecosystem regulation during El Niño.

PubMed

Lindegren, Martin; Checkley, David M; Koslow, Julian A; Goericke, Ralf; Ohman, Mark D

2018-02-01

The degree to which ecosystems are regulated through bottom-up, top-down, or direct physical processes represents a long-standing issue in ecology, with important consequences for resource management and conservation. In marine ecosystems, the role of bottom-up and top-down forcing has been shown to vary over spatio-temporal scales, often linked to highly variable and heterogeneously distributed environmental conditions. Ecosystem dynamics in the Northeast Pacific have been suggested to be predominately bottom-up regulated. However, it remains unknown to what extent top-down regulation occurs, or whether the relative importance of bottom-up and top-down forcing may shift in response to climate change. In this study, we investigate the effects and relative importance of bottom-up, top-down, and physical forcing during changing climate conditions on ecosystem regulation in the Southern California Current System (SCCS) using a generalized food web model. This statistical approach is based on nonlinear threshold models and a long-term data set (~60 years) covering multiple trophic levels from phytoplankton to predatory fish. We found bottom-up control to be the primary mode of ecosystem regulation. However, our results also demonstrate an alternative mode of regulation represented by interacting bottom-up and top-down forcing, analogous to wasp-waist dynamics, but occurring across multiple trophic levels and only during periods of reduced bottom-up forcing (i.e., weak upwelling, low nutrient concentrations, and primary production). The shifts in ecosystem regulation are caused by changes in ocean-atmosphere forcing and triggered by highly variable climate conditions associated with El Niño. Furthermore, we show that biota respond differently to major El Niño events during positive or negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as highlight potential concerns for marine and fisheries management by demonstrating increased sensitivity of pelagic fish to exploitation during El Niño. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Nitrogen amendments have predictable effects on soil microbial communities and processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, K. S.; Craine, J. M.; Fierer, N.

2011-12-01

Ecosystems worldwide are receiving increasing amounts of reactive nitrogen (N) through anthropogenic activities. While there has been much effort devoted to quantifying aboveground impacts of anthropogenic N effects, less work has focused on identifying belowground impacts. Bacteria play critical roles in ecosystem processes and identifying how anthropogenic N impacts bacterial communities may elucidate how critical microbially-mediated ecosystem functions are altered by N additions. In order to connect changes in soil processes to changes in the microbial community, we need to first determine if the changes are consistent across different soil types and ecosystems. We assessed the patterns of N effects across a variety of ecosystems in two ways. First, utilizing long-term experimental N gradients at Cedar Creek LTER, MN and Kellogg Biological Station LTER, MI, we examined the response of microbial communities to anthropogenic N additions. Using high-throughput pyrosequencing techniques we quantified changes in soil microbial communities across the nitrogen gradients. We observed strong directional shifts in community composition at both sites; N fertilization consistently impacted both the phylogenetic and taxonomic structure of soil bacterial community structure in a predictable manner regardless of ecosystem type. For example, at both sites Acidobacteria experienced significant declines as nitrogen increased, while other groups such as Actinobacteria and Bacteroidetes increased in relative abundance. Our results suggest that bacterial communities across these N fertility gradients are structured by either nitrogen and/or soil carbon availability, rather than by shifts in the plant community or soil pH indirectly associated with the elevated nitrogen inputs. Still, this field-work does not incorporate changes in soil processes (e.g. soil respiration) or microbial activity (e.g. microbial biomass and extracellular enzyme activity), or separate N from C effects. To address these factors, we performed a lab experiment, amending 30 soils collected from across North America with inorganic N. From this year-long incubation we obtained soil respiration, microbial biomass, bacterial community and extracellular enzyme activity measurements. Across all soil types we consistently observed a significant decrease in both soil respiration, approximately 10%, and microbial biomass, approximately 35%. Using high-throughput pyrosequencing we identified seven bacterial groups that responded significantly to the N additions, including those observed in our field survey. Together, this work suggests that increases in soil N shifts the functional capabilities of the microbial community and highlights possibly mechanisms behind the observed changes.

Ecological succession reveals potential signatures of marine–terrestrial transition in salt marsh fungal communities

PubMed Central

Dini-Andreote, Francisco; Pylro, Victor Satler; Baldrian, Petr; van Elsas, Jan Dirk; Salles, Joana Falcão

2016-01-01

Marine-to-terrestrial transition represents one of the most fundamental shifts in microbial life. Understanding the distribution and drivers of soil microbial communities across coastal ecosystems is critical given the roles of microbes in soil biogeochemistry and their multifaceted influence on landscape succession. Here, we studied the fungal community dynamics in a well-established salt marsh chronosequence that spans over a century of ecosystem development. We focussed on providing high-resolution assessments of community composition, diversity and ecophysiological shifts that yielded patterns of ecological succession through soil formation. Notably, despite containing 10- to 100-fold lower fungal internal transcribed spacer abundances, early-successional sites revealed fungal richnesses comparable to those of more mature soils. These newly formed sites also exhibited significant temporal variations in β-diversity that may be attributed to the highly dynamic nature of the system imposed by the tidal regime. The fungal community compositions and ecophysiological assignments changed substantially along the successional gradient, revealing a clear signature of ecological replacement and gradually transforming the environment from a marine into a terrestrial system. Moreover, distance-based linear modelling revealed soil physical structure and organic matter to be the best predictors of the shifts in fungal β-diversity along the chronosequence. Taken together, our study lays the basis for a better understanding of the spatiotemporally determined fungal community dynamics in salt marshes and highlights their ecophysiological traits and adaptation in an evolving ecosystem. PMID:26824176

Climatological determinants of woody cover in Africa.

PubMed

Good, Stephen P; Caylor, Kelly K

2011-03-22

Determining the factors that influence the distribution of woody vegetation cover and resolving the sensitivity of woody vegetation cover to shifts in environmental forcing are critical steps necessary to predict continental-scale responses of dryland ecosystems to climate change. We use a 6-year satellite data record of fractional woody vegetation cover and an 11-year daily precipitation record to investigate the climatological controls on woody vegetation cover across the African continent. We find that-as opposed to a relationship with only mean annual rainfall-the upper limit of fractional woody vegetation cover is strongly influenced by both the quantity and intensity of rainfall events. Using a set of statistics derived from the seasonal distribution of rainfall, we show that areas with similar seasonal rainfall totals have higher fractional woody cover if the local rainfall climatology consists of frequent, less intense precipitation events. Based on these observations, we develop a generalized response surface between rainfall climatology and maximum woody vegetation cover across the African continent. The normalized local gradient of this response surface is used as an estimator of ecosystem vegetation sensitivity to climatological variation. A comparison between predicted climate sensitivity patterns and observed shifts in both rainfall and vegetation during 2009 reveals both the importance of rainfall climatology in governing how ecosystems respond to interannual fluctuations in climate and the utility of our framework as a means to forecast continental-scale patterns of vegetation shifts in response to future climate change.

A Dissolved Oxygen Threshold for Shifts in Bacterial Community Structure in a Seasonally Hypoxic Estuary

PubMed Central

Spietz, Rachel L.; Williams, Cheryl M.; Rocap, Gabrielle; Horner-Devine, M. Claire

2015-01-01

Pelagic ecosystems can become depleted of dissolved oxygen as a result of both natural processes and anthropogenic effects. As dissolved oxygen concentration decreases, energy shifts from macrofauna to microorganisms, which persist in these hypoxic zones. Oxygen-limited regions are rapidly expanding globally; however, patterns of microbial communities associated with dissolved oxygen gradients are not yet well understood. To assess the effects of decreasing dissolved oxygen on bacteria, we examined shifts in bacterial community structure over space and time in Hood Canal, Washington, USA−a glacial fjord-like water body that experiences seasonal low dissolved oxygen levels known to be detrimental to fish and other marine organisms. We found a strong negative association between bacterial richness and dissolved oxygen. Bacterial community composition across all samples was also strongly associated with the dissolved oxygen gradient, and significant changes in bacterial community composition occurred at a dissolved oxygen concentration between 5.18 and 7.12 mg O2 L-1. This threshold value of dissolved oxygen is higher than classic definitions of hypoxia (<2.0 mg O2 L-1), suggesting that changes in bacterial communities may precede the detrimental effects on ecologically and economically important macrofauna. Furthermore, bacterial taxa responsible for driving whole community changes across the oxygen gradient are commonly detected in other oxygen-stressed ecosystems, suggesting that the patterns we uncovered in Hood Canal may be relevant in other low oxygen ecosystems. PMID:26270047

Ecological succession reveals potential signatures of marine-terrestrial transition in salt marsh fungal communities.

PubMed

Dini-Andreote, Francisco; Pylro, Victor Satler; Baldrian, Petr; van Elsas, Jan Dirk; Salles, Joana Falcão

2016-08-01

Marine-to-terrestrial transition represents one of the most fundamental shifts in microbial life. Understanding the distribution and drivers of soil microbial communities across coastal ecosystems is critical given the roles of microbes in soil biogeochemistry and their multifaceted influence on landscape succession. Here, we studied the fungal community dynamics in a well-established salt marsh chronosequence that spans over a century of ecosystem development. We focussed on providing high-resolution assessments of community composition, diversity and ecophysiological shifts that yielded patterns of ecological succession through soil formation. Notably, despite containing 10- to 100-fold lower fungal internal transcribed spacer abundances, early-successional sites revealed fungal richnesses comparable to those of more mature soils. These newly formed sites also exhibited significant temporal variations in β-diversity that may be attributed to the highly dynamic nature of the system imposed by the tidal regime. The fungal community compositions and ecophysiological assignments changed substantially along the successional gradient, revealing a clear signature of ecological replacement and gradually transforming the environment from a marine into a terrestrial system. Moreover, distance-based linear modelling revealed soil physical structure and organic matter to be the best predictors of the shifts in fungal β-diversity along the chronosequence. Taken together, our study lays the basis for a better understanding of the spatiotemporally determined fungal community dynamics in salt marshes and highlights their ecophysiological traits and adaptation in an evolving ecosystem.

Leaf Litter Mixtures Alter Microbial Community Development: Mechanisms for Non-Additive Effects in Litter Decomposition

PubMed Central

Chapman, Samantha K.; Newman, Gregory S.; Hart, Stephen C.; Schweitzer, Jennifer A.; Koch, George W.

2013-01-01

To what extent microbial community composition can explain variability in ecosystem processes remains an open question in ecology. Microbial decomposer communities can change during litter decomposition due to biotic interactions and shifting substrate availability. Though relative abundance of decomposers may change due to mixing leaf litter, linking these shifts to the non-additive patterns often recorded in mixed species litter decomposition rates has been elusive, and links community composition to ecosystem function. We extracted phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs) from single species and mixed species leaf litterbags after 10 and 27 months of decomposition in a mixed conifer forest. Total PLFA concentrations were 70% higher on litter mixtures than single litter types after 10 months, but were only 20% higher after 27 months. Similarly, fungal-to-bacterial ratios differed between mixed and single litter types after 10 months of decomposition, but equalized over time. Microbial community composition, as indicated by principal components analyses, differed due to both litter mixing and stage of litter decomposition. PLFA biomarkers a15∶0 and cy17∶0, which indicate gram-positive and gram-negative bacteria respectively, in particular drove these shifts. Total PLFA correlated significantly with single litter mass loss early in decomposition but not at later stages. We conclude that litter mixing alters microbial community development, which can contribute to synergisms in litter decomposition. These findings advance our understanding of how changing forest biodiversity can alter microbial communities and the ecosystem processes they mediate. PMID:23658639

[Is there a connection between biodiversity and the greenhouse effect].

PubMed

Rozanov, S I

1998-01-01

It was discussed the role of biodiversity in ecosystems capacity to control CO2 in atmosphere as the main reason not only of "greenhouse effect" but "greenhouse catastrophe". The necessity to perfect the preventive measures has been defined by time factor. This time may be so little for completing the evolution theory and models of biosphere management. The temps of contemporaneous species extinction exceed two orders as minimum ones how it has been known from planet history. It doesn't permit to discharge that evolutional process will be successful to create organisms which have been capable to stabilize biosphere in conditions of its changing status. It's possible that such change may be provocated with the crisis in civilization-biosphere interrelations.

Earthquake-caused coastal uplift and its effects on rocky intertidal kelp communities.

PubMed

Castilla, J C

1988-10-21

The coastal uplift(approximately 40 to 60 centimeters) associated with the Chilean earthquake of 3 March 1985 caused extensive mortality of intertidal organisms at the Estación Costera de Investigaciones Marinas, Las Cruces. The kelp belt of the laminarian Lessonia nigrescens was particularly affected. Most of the primary space liberated at the upper border of this belt was invaded by species of barnacles, which showed an opportunistic colonization strategy. Drastic modifications in the environment such as coastal uplift, subsidence, or the effects of the El Niño phenomenon are characteristic of the southern Pacific. Modifications in the marine ecosystem that generate catastrophic and widespread mortalities of intertidal organisms can affect species composition, diversity, or local biogeography.

Coronal Flux Rope Catastrophe Associated With Internal Energy Release

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Bin; Hu, Youqiu; Wang, Yuming; Zhang, Quanhao; Liu, Rui; Gou, Tingyu; Shen, Chenglong

2018-04-01

Magnetic energy during the catastrophe was predominantly studied by the previous catastrophe works since it is believed to be the main energy supplier for the solar eruptions. However, the contribution of other types of energies during the catastrophe cannot be neglected. This paper studies the catastrophe of the coronal flux rope system in the solar wind background, with emphasis on the transformation of different types of energies during the catastrophe. The coronal flux rope is characterized by its axial and poloidal magnetic fluxes and total mass. It is shown that a catastrophe can be triggered by not only an increase but also a decrease of the axial magnetic flux. Moreover, the internal energy of the rope is found to be released during the catastrophe so as to provide energy for the upward eruption of the flux rope. As far as the magnetic energy is concerned, it provides only part of the energy release, or even increases during the catastrophe, so the internal energy may act as the dominant or even the unique energy supplier during the catastrophe.

[Research progress on the degradation mechanisms and restoration of riparian ecosystem].

PubMed

Huang, Kai; Guo, Huai-cheng; Liu, Yong; Yu, Ya-juan; Zhou, Feng

2007-06-01

Restoration and reconstruction of degraded riparian ecosystem caused by natural and anthropogenic disturbances is one of the important issues in restoration ecology and watershed ecology. The disturbances on riparian ecosystem include flow regime alteration, direct modification and watershed disturbance, which have different affecting mechanisms. Flow regime alteration affects riparian ecosystem by changing riparian soil humidity, oxidation-reduction potential, biotaliving environment, and sediment transfer; direct modification affects riparian vegetation diversity through human activities and exotic plants invasion; and watershed disturbance mainly manifests in the channel degradation, aggradation or widening, the lowering of groundwater table, and the modification in fluvial process. The assessment objects of riparian restoration are riparian ecosystem components, and the assessment indicators are shifted from ecological to synthetic indices. Riparian restoration should be based on the detailed understanding of the biological and physical processes which affect riparian ecosystem, and implemented by vegetation restoration and hydrological adjustment at watershed or landscape scale. To extend the research scales and objects and to apply interdisciplinary approaches should be the key points in the further studies on the degradation mechanisms and restoration of riparian ecosystem.

Biodiversity as a solution to mitigate climate change impacts on the functioning of forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Hisano, Masumi; Searle, Eric B; Chen, Han Y H

2018-02-01

Forest ecosystems are critical to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions through carbon sequestration. However, climate change has affected forest ecosystem functioning in both negative and positive ways, and has led to shifts in species/functional diversity and losses in plant species diversity which may impair the positive effects of diversity on ecosystem functioning. Biodiversity may mitigate climate change impacts on (I) biodiversity itself, as more-diverse systems could be more resilient to climate change impacts, and (II) ecosystem functioning through the positive relationship between diversity and ecosystem functioning. By surveying the literature, we examined how climate change has affected forest ecosystem functioning and plant diversity. Based on the biodiversity effects on ecosystem functioning (B→EF), we specifically address the potential for biodiversity to mitigate climate change impacts on forest ecosystem functioning. For this purpose, we formulate a concept whereby biodiversity may reduce the negative impacts or enhance the positive impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. Further B→EF studies on climate change in natural forests are encouraged to elucidate how biodiversity might influence ecosystem functioning. This may be achieved through the detailed scrutiny of large spatial/long temporal scale data sets, such as long-term forest inventories. Forest management strategies based on B→EF have strong potential for augmenting the effectiveness of the roles of forests in the mitigation of climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Using LiDAR to evaluate forest landscapes and health factors and their relationship to habitat of the endangered Mount Graham red squirrel on the Coronado National Forest, Pinaleno Mountains, Arizona [Chap. 12

Treesearch

John Anhold; Brent Mitchell; Craig Wilcox; Tom Mellin; Melissa Merrick; Ann Lynch; Mike Walterman; Donald Falk; John Koprowski; Denise Laes; Don Evans; Haans. Fisk

2015-01-01

The Pinaleno Mountains in southeastern Arizona represent a Madrean sky island ecosystem that contains the southernmost expanse of spruce-fir forest type in North America. This ecosystem is also the last remaining habitat for the Mt. Graham red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus grahamenis), a federally listed endangered species. Due to a general shift in...

Transformation of leaf litter by insect herbivory in the Subarctic: Consequences for soil biogeochemistry under global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristensen, J. A.; Metcalfe, D. B.; Rousk, J.

2017-12-01

Climate warming may increase insect herbivore ranges and outbreak intensities in arctic ecosystems. Thorough understanding of the implications of these changes for ecosystem processes is essential to make accurate predictions of surface-atmosphere carbon (C) feedbacks. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of herbivore outbreaks on soil microbial underpinnings of C and nitrogen (N) fluxes. Here, we investigate the growth responses of heterotrophic soil decomposers and C and N mineralisation to simulated defoliator outbreaks in Subarctic birch forests. In microcosms, topsoil was incubated with leaf litter, insect frass, mineral N and combinations of the three; all was added in equal amounts of N. A higher fraction of added C and N was mineralised during outbreaks (frass addition) relative to non-outbreak years (litter addition). However, under high mineral N-availability in the soil of the kind likely under longer periods of enhanced insect herbivory (litter+mineral N), the mineralised fraction of added C decreased while the mineralised fraction of N increased substantially, which suggest a shift towards more N-mining of the organic substrates. This shift was accompanied by higher fungal dominance, and may facilitate soil C-accumulation assuming constant quality of C-inputs. Thus, long-term increases of insect herbivory, of the kind observed in some areas and projected by some models, may facilitate higher ecosystem C-sink capacity in this Subarctic ecosystem.

Modelling marine protected areas: insights and hurdles

PubMed Central

Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Bax, Nicholas J.; Bustamante, Rodrigo H.; Dambacher, Jeffrey M.; Dichmont, Catherine; Dunstan, Piers K.; Hayes, Keith R.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Pitcher, Roland; Plagányi, Éva E.; Punt, André E.; Savina-Rolland, Marie; Smith, Anthony D. M.; Smith, David C.

2015-01-01

Models provide useful insights into conservation and resource management issues and solutions. Their use to date has highlighted conditions under which no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) may help us to achieve the goals of ecosystem-based management by reducing pressures, and where they might fail to achieve desired goals. For example, static reserve designs are unlikely to achieve desired objectives when applied to mobile species or when compromised by climate-related ecosystem restructuring and range shifts. Modelling tools allow planners to explore a range of options, such as basing MPAs on the presence of dynamic oceanic features, and to evaluate the potential future impacts of alternative interventions compared with ‘no-action’ counterfactuals, under a range of environmental and development scenarios. The modelling environment allows the analyst to test if indicators and management strategies are robust to uncertainties in how the ecosystem (and the broader human–ecosystem combination) operates, including the direct and indirect ecological effects of protection. Moreover, modelling results can be presented at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and relative to ecological, economic and social objectives. This helps to reveal potential ‘surprises', such as regime shifts, trophic cascades and bottlenecks in human responses. Using illustrative examples, this paper briefly covers the history of the use of simulation models for evaluating MPA options, and discusses their utility and limitations for informing protected area management in the marine realm. PMID:26460131

Synthesis: Chapter 19

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pardo, L.H.; Geiser, L.H.; Fenn, M.E.; Driscoll, C.T.; Goodale, C.L.; Allen, E.B.; Baron, Jill S.; Bobbink, R.; Bowman, W.D.; Clark, C.M.; Emmett, B.; Gilliam, F.S.; Greaver, T.; Hall, S.J.; Lilleskov, E.A.; Liu, L.; Lynch, J.A.; Nadelhoffer, K.; Perakis, S.S.; Robin-Abbott, M. J.; Stoddard, J.L.; Weathers, K. C.

2011-01-01

Human activity in the last century has led to a substantial increase in nitrogen (N) emissions and deposition (Galloway et al. 2003). Because of past, and, in some regions, continuing increases in emissions (Lehmann et al. 2005, Nilles and Conley 2001), this N deposition has reached a level that has caused or is likely to cause alterations and damage in many ecosystems across the United States. In some ecoregions, the impact of N deposition has been severe and has changed the biotic community structure and composition of ecosystems. In the Mediterranean California ecoregion, for example (see Chapter 13), replacement of native by exotic invasive vegetation is accelerated because exotic species are often more productive under elevated N deposition than native species in some California grasslands, coastal sage scrub, and desert scrub (Fenn et al. 2010, Rao and Allen 2010, Rao et al. 2010, Weiss 1999, Yoshida and Allen 2004). Such shifts in plant community composition and species richness can have consequences beyond changes in ecosystem structure: shifts may lead to overall losses in biodiversity and further impair particular threatened or endangered species (Stevens et al. 2004). Th e extirpation of the endangered checkerspot butterfl y (Euphydryas editha bayensis), because the host plant for the larval stage disappears in N-enriched ecosystems (Fenn et al. 2010, Weiss 1999), is just one example of the detrimental impacts of elevated N deposition.

River management impacts on riparian forest vegetation along the Middle Rio Grande: 1935-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrakis, Roy E.

Riparian ecosystems of the southwestern United States are highly valuable to both the ecological and human communities which surround them. Over the past century, they have been subject to shifting management practices to maximize human use, control, ecosystem service, and conservation. This creates a complex relationship between water policy, management, and the natural ecosystem necessitating research on spatial and temporal dynamics of riparian vegetation. The San Acacia Reach of the Middle Rio Grande, a 60 mile stretch from the San Acacia Diversion Dam to San Marcial, has experienced multiple management and river flow fluctuations over the past 80 years, resulting in threats to riparian and aquatic ecosystems. This research was completed through the use and analysis of multi-source remote sensing data, GIS, and a review of the on-the-ground management decisions to better understand how the location and composition of the riparian vegetation has been affected by these shifting practices. This research focused on four phases, each highlighting different management practices and river flow patterns during the last 80-years. Each of these periods provides a unique opportunity to observe a direct relationship between river management and riparian land cover response and change. Overall, management practices reduced surface river flows and limited overbank flooding and resulted in changes in the composition, density, and spatial patterns of the vegetation, including increased non-native vegetation growth. Restoration efforts over the past few decades have begun to reduce the presence of non-native species. Despite these changes, this ecosystem was shown to be extremely resilient in maintaining its function/service throughout the entire study time frame.

Potential of satellite-derived ecosystem functional attributes to anticipate species range shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Lomba, Angela; Sousa-Silva, Rita; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Alves, Paulo; Georges, Damien; Vicente, Joana R.; Honrado, João P.

2017-05-01

In a world facing rapid environmental changes, anticipating their impacts on biodiversity is of utmost relevance. Remotely-sensed Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFAs) are promising predictors for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) by offering an early and integrative response of vegetation performance to environmental drivers. Species of high conservation concern would benefit the most from a better ability to anticipate changes in habitat suitability. Here we illustrate how yearly projections from SDMs based on EFAs could reveal short-term changes in potential habitat suitability, anticipating mid-term shifts predicted by climate-change-scenario models. We fitted two sets of SDMs for 41 plant species of conservation concern in the Iberian Peninsula: one calibrated with climate variables for baseline conditions and projected under two climate-change-scenarios (future conditions); and the other calibrated with EFAs for 2001 and projected annually from 2001 to 2013. Range shifts predicted by climate-based models for future conditions were compared to the 2001-2013 trends from EFAs-based models. Projections of EFAs-based models estimated changes (mostly contractions) in habitat suitability that anticipated, for the majority (up to 64%) of species, the mid-term shifts projected by traditional climate-change-scenario forecasting, and showed greater agreement with the business-as-usual scenario than with the sustainable-development one. This study shows how satellite-derived EFAs can be used as meaningful essential biodiversity variables in SDMs to provide early-warnings of range shifts and predictions of short-term fluctuations in suitable conditions for multiple species.

Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human–environment systems

PubMed Central

Bauch, Chris T.; Sigdel, Ram; Pharaon, Joe; Anand, Madhur

2016-01-01

In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system’s dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled human–environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent environment model uncoupled from the human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled environment system. Moreover, the early warning signals in the coupled HES can be ambiguous, heralding either an era of ecosystem conservationism or collapse of both forest ecosystems and conservationism. The presence of human feedback in the coupled HES can also mitigate the early warning signal, making it more difficult to detect the oncoming regime shift. We furthermore show how the coupled HES can be “doomed to criticality”: Strategic human interactions cause the system to remain perpetually in the vicinity of a collapse threshold, as humans become complacent when the resource seems protected but respond rapidly when it is under immediate threat. We conclude that the opportunities, benefits, and challenges of modeling regime shifts and early warning signals in coupled HESs merit further research. PMID:27815533

Effects of shifting seasonal rainfall patterns on net primary productivity and carbon storage in tropical seasonally dry ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohr, T.; Manzoni, S.; Feng, X.; Menezes, R.; Porporato, A. M.

2013-12-01

Although seasonally dry ecosystems (SDEs), identified by prolonged drought followed by a short, but intense, rainy season, cover large regions of the tropics, their biogeochemical response to seasonal rainfall and soil carbon (C) sequestration potential are not well characterized. Both productivity and soil respiration are positively affected by seasonal soil moisture availability, creating a delicate balance between C deposition through litterfall and C losses through heterotrophic respiration. As climate change projections for the tropics predict decreased annual rainfall and increased dry season length, it is critical to understand how variations in seasonal rainfall distributions control this balance. To address this question, we develop a minimal model linking the seasonal behavior of the ensemble soil moisture, plant productivity, the related soil C inputs through litterfall, and soil C dynamics. The model is parameterized for a case study from a drought-deciduous caatinga ecosystem in northeastern Brazil. Results indicate that when altering the seasonal rainfall patterns for a fixed annual rainfall, both plant productivity and soil C sequestration potential are largely, and nonlinearly, dependent on wet season duration. Moreover, total annual rainfall plays a dominant role in describing this relationship, leading at times to the emergence of distinct optima in both primary production and C sequestration. Examining these results in the context of climate-driven changes to wet season duration and mean annual precipitation indicate that the initial hydroclimatic regime of a particular ecosystem is an important factor to predict both the magnitude and direction of the effects of shifting seasonal distributions on productivity and C storage. Although highly productive ecosystems will likely experience declining C storage with predicted climate shifts, those currently operating well below peak production can potentially see improved C stocks with the onset of declining rainfall due to reduced soil respiration. a) Annual average net primary productivity and b) the temporally averaged ensemble soil carbon concentration <(C_yr )> are plotted against the length of the wet season T_W, for six annual rainfall rates (m yr-1).

Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

PubMed Central

Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.

2017-01-01

Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain. PMID:28348505

Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Taub, Chloe J; Sturgeon, John A; Johnson, Kevin A; Mackey, Sean C; Darnall, Beth D

2017-01-01

Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain.

Wave Dissipation on Low- to Super-Energy Coral Reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, D. L.

2016-02-01

Coral reefs are valuable, complex and bio-diverse ecosystems and are also known to be one of the most effective barriers to swell events in coastal environments. Previous research has found coral reefs to be remarkably efficient in removing most of the wave energy during the initial breaking and transformation on the reef flats. The rate of dissipation is so rapid that coral reefs have been referred to as rougher than any known coastal barrier. The dissipation of wave energy across reef flats is crucial in maintaining the relatively low-energy conditions in the back reef and lagoonal environments providing vital protection to adjacent beach or coastal regions from cyclone and storm events. A shift in the regulation of wave energy by reef flats could have catastrophic consequences ecologically, socially, and economically. This study examined the dissipation of wave energy during two swell events in Tahiti and Moorea, French Polyesia. Field sites were chosen in varying degrees of exposure and geomorphology from low-energy protected sites (Tiahura, Moorea) to super-energy sites (Teahupo'o, Tahiti). Waves were measured during two moderate to large swell events in cross reef transects using short-term high-resolution pressure transducers. Wave conditions were found to be similar in all back reef locations despite the very different wave exposure at each reef site. However, wave conditions on the reef flats were different and mirrored the variation in wave exposure with depth over the reef flat the primary regulator of reef flat wave height. These results indicate that coral reef flats evolve morphodynamically with the wave climate, which creates coral reef geomorphologies capable of dissipating wave energy that results in similar back reef wave conditions regardless of the offshore wave climate.

Hurricane impacts on a pair of coastal forested watersheds: implications of selective hurricane damage to forest structure and streamflow dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayakaran, A. D.; Williams, T. M.; Ssegane, H.; Amatya, D. M.; Song, B.; Trettin, C. C.

2013-09-01

Hurricanes are infrequent but influential disruptors of ecosystem processes in the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Every southeastern forested wetland has the potential to be struck by a tropical cyclone. We examined the impact of Hurricane Hugo on two paired coastal watersheds in South Carolina in terms of stream flow and vegetation dynamics, both before and after the hurricane's passage in 1989. The study objectives were to quantify the magnitude and timing of changes including a reversal in relative streamflow-difference between two paired watersheds, and to examine the selective impacts of a hurricane on the vegetative composition of the forest. We related these impacts to their potential contribution to change watershed hydrology through altered evapotranspiration processes. Using over thirty years of monthly rainfall and streamflow data we showed that there was a significant transformation in the hydrologic character of the two watersheds - a transformation that occurred soon after the hurricane's passage. We linked the change in the rainfall-runoff relationship to a catastrophic shift in forest vegetation due to selective hurricane damage. While both watersheds were located in the path of the hurricane, extant forest structure varied between the two watersheds as a function of experimental forest management techniques on the treatment watershed. We showed that the primary damage was to older pines, and to some extent larger hardwood trees. We believe that lowered vegetative water use impacted both watersheds with increased outflows on both watersheds due to loss of trees following hurricane impact. However, one watershed was able to recover to pre hurricane levels of canopy transpiration at a quicker rate due to the greater abundance of pine seedlings and saplings in that watershed.

[Catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico: magnitude, distribution and determinants].

PubMed

Sesma-Vázquez, Sergio; Pérez-Rico, Raymundo; Sosa-Manzano, Carlos Lino; Gómez-Dantés, Octavio

2005-01-01

To describe the magnitude, distribution, and determinants of catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico. The information source was the National Performance Assessment Survey and the methodology, the one developed by the World Health Organization for assessing fair financing. Households with catastrophic expenditures were defined as those with health expenditures over 30% of their ability to pay. Multivariate analysis by logistic and linear regression were used to identify the determinants of catastrophic expenditures. A total of 3.8% of the households incurred in catastrophic health expenditures. There were huge differences by state. The uninsured, poor, and rural households showed a higher impoverishment risk. Sixty percent of the catastrophic expenditures were attributable to outpatient care and medication. A 10% increase of insured households could result in a 9.6% decrease in catastrophic expenditures. Disability, adults 60 years of age and older, and pregnancy increased the probability of catastrophic expenditures. The insurance of older adults, pregnant women, and persons with disabilities could reduce catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico.

How resilient are ecosystems in adapting to climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savenije, Hubert H. G.

2015-04-01

The conclusion often drawn in the media is that ecosystems may perish as a result of climate change. Although climatic trends may indeed lead to shifts in ecosystem composition, the challenge to adjust to climatic variability - even if there is no trend - is larger, particularly in semi-arid or topical climates where climatic variability is large compared to temperate climates. How do ecosystems buffer for climatic variability? The most powerful mechanism is to invest in root zone storage capacity, so as to guarantee access to water and nutrients during period of drought. This investment comes at a cost of having less energy available to invest in growth or formation of fruits. Ecosystems are expected to create sufficient buffer to overcome critical periods of drought, but not more than is necessary to survive or reproduce. Based on this concept, a methodology has been developed to estimate ecosystem root zone storage capacity at local, regional and global scale. These estimates correspond well with estimates made by combining soil and ecosystem information, but are more accurate and more detailed. The methodology shows that ecosystems have intrinsic capacity to adjust to climatic variability and hence have a high resilience to both climatic variability and climatic trends.

Adaptive management for ecosystem services (j/a) | Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Management of natural resources for the production of ecosystem services, which are vital for human well-being, is necessary even when there is uncertainty regarding system response to management action. This uncertainty is the result of incomplete controllability, complex internal feedbacks, and non-linearity that often interferes with desired management outcomes, and insufficient understanding of nature and people. Adaptive management was developed to reduce such uncertainty. We present a framework for the application of adaptive management for ecosystem services that explicitly accounts for cross-scale tradeoffs in the production of ecosystem services. Our framework focuses on identifying key spatiotemporal scales (plot, patch, ecosystem, landscape, and region) that encompass dominant structures and processes in the system, and includes within- and cross-scale dynamics, ecosystem service tradeoffs, and management controllability within and across scales. Resilience theory recognizes that a limited set of ecological processes in a given system regulate ecosystem services, yet our understanding of these processes is poorly understood. If management actions erode or remove these processes, the system may shift into an alternative state unlikely to support the production of desired services. Adaptive management provides a process to assess the underlying within and cross-scale tradeoffs associated with production of ecosystem services while proceeding with manage

Catchment controls and human disturbances on the geomorphology of small Mediterranean estuarine systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estrany, Joan; Grimalt, Miquel

2014-10-01

Geographic signatures are physical and human-induced characteristics or processes that identify comparable or unique features of estuaries along latitudinal gradients. In Mediterranean areas, the microtidal regime and the strong seasonal and inter-annual contrasts cause an alternation between relatively high runoff and arid conditions. Furthermore, the long history of human settlement also increases the complexity in the study of these estuarine systems. This study investigates these signatures of the estuaries located within the Mallorcan eastern coast, which are geomorphologically homogeneous because of a similar bedrock geology and Holocene history. A multi-method approach focused on the integration of geomorphometry, hydraulics, historical sources and statistics was used. We explore the role played by catchment morphometric parameters, severe flash flood events and human disturbances in controlling the geomorphology of 10 beach-barrier enclosed, fluvial incised lagoons. Most of the lagoons discharge into 'calas', ranging in size from 1345 to 17,537 m2 and their related catchments are representative of the Mediterranean hydrological systems. Multiple regression models illustrate that the size, slope and drainage network development of the catchments explain the variance in length (r2 = 0.67), volume (r2 = 0.49), area (r2 = 0.64), circularity (r2 = 0.72) and average width (r2 = 0.81) of the lagoons. Depending on these catchment morphometric variables, the shape of the lagoons is also determined by the occurrence of catastrophic flash floods, which cause scouring and dredging, whereas the ordinary flood events and sea storms promote refilling and sedimentation. A historical analysis since 1850 documented 18 flood events, 5 of which were catastrophic with destructive effects along the catchments and large morphological changes in coastal lagoons. High intensity rainfall (up to 200 mm in 2 h), the geomorphometry of the catchments and the massive construction of terraces and transverse walls are involved in the generation of catastrophic flood events. Additionally, the lagoons were altered considerably by human intervention for flood control and to allow for an increased amount of human activities within the surrounding areas, although the high recurrence of catastrophic flood events causes a persistent difficulty in the human battle to dominate these ecosystems. Therefore, the area occupied by lagoons increased between 1956 and the present time from 31,981 m2 to 63,802 m2 because of the high recurrence of catastrophic flood events. Furthermore, tourism demand and a social conservation consciousness have promoted restoration and preservation since the 1990s. This study has improved the geomorphological knowledge of small Mediterranean estuaries affected by human disturbances in the high-energy environment found in Mallorca.

Child and parent pain catastrophizing and pain from presurgery to 6 weeks postsurgery: examination of cross-sectional and longitudinal actor-partner effects.

PubMed

Birnie, Kathryn A; Chorney, Jill; El-Hawary, Ron

2017-10-01

Child and parent pain catastrophizing are reported preoperative risk factors for children's acute and persistent postsurgical pain. This study examined dyadic relations between child and parent pain catastrophizing and child and parent ratings of child pain prior to (M = 4.01 days; "baseline") and following surgery (M = 6.5 weeks; "acute follow-up"), as well changes in pain catastrophizing during this time in 167 youth (86% female; Mage = 14.55 years) undergoing spinal fusion surgery and 1 parent (89% mothers). Actor-partner interdependence models assessed cross-sectional and longitudinal intra- and interpersonal effects. Cross-sectionally, child pain catastrophizing was positively associated with child pain at baseline and acute follow-up (actor effects: βbaseline = 0.288 and βfollow-up = 0.262; P < 0.01), and parents' ratings of child pain at baseline (partner effect: βbaseline = 0.212; P < 0.01). Parent pain catastrophizing was not cross-sectionally associated with ratings of child pain. Longitudinally, higher pain catastrophizing at baseline predicted higher pain catastrophizing at acute follow-up for children (actor effect: β = 0.337; P < 0.01) and parents (actor effect: β = 0.579; P < 0.01) with a significantly smaller effect for children (respondent × actor interaction: β = 0.121; P < 0.05). No longitudinal partner effects for catastrophizing were observed. Baseline child and parent pain catastrophizing did not predict child pain at acute follow-up. In conclusion, child, not parent, pain catastrophizing was associated with children's pre- and postsurgical pain, and showed significantly less stability over time. There is a need to better understand contributors to the stability or changeability of pain catastrophizing, the prospective relation of catastrophizing to pain, and contexts in which child vs parent pain catastrophizing is most influential for pediatric postsurgical pain.

Understanding how Seasonality and Shifts in Species Composition Impact Emission Estimates in Semi-Arid Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparks, A.

2012-12-01

The importance of wildland fire as a source of trace gas emissions to the atmosphere has been demonstrated in the scientific literature and through numerous NASA funded campaigns to further understand the drivers and impacts of these emissions (e.g., SAFARI 1992, SAFARI 2000, TRACE A, etc). Most studies quantify the emissions using remotely sensed data through multiplying the area burned, the quantity of fuel combusted, and the emission factors of a given gas species (EFX, grams of gas, X, emitted per kilogram of fuel consumed). The latter is known to exhibit considerable uncertainty and indeed a prior study as part of NASA's SAFARI 2000 campaign highlighted a seasonal dependence of carbonaceous gas species emissions. Building off these past studies, the focus of the proposed research is to assess the influence of both seasonality and shifting vegetation composition (via replacement of native with invasive species), on the emissions of trace gases in semi-arid ecosystems. Emissions data will help lower emission factor uncertainties in sagebrush-steppe ecosystems as well as inform management decisions about the best burning times in a season (in terms of air quality and greenhouse gas production).

A History of Vegetation, Sediment and Nutrient Dynamics at Tivoli North Bay, Hudson Estuary, New York

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sritrairat, Sanpisa; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Kenna, Timothy C.; Sambrotto, Ray; Kurdyla, Dorothy; Guilderson, Tom

2012-01-01

We conduct a stratigraphic paleoecological investigation at a Hudson River National Estuarine Research Reserve (HRNERR) site, Tivoli Bays, spanning the past 1100 years. Marsh sediment cores were analyzed for ecosystem changes using multiple proxies, including pollen, spores, macrofossils, charcoal, sediment bulk chemistry, and stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes. The results reveal climatic shifts such as the warm and dry Medieval Warm Period (MWP) followed by the cooler Little Ice Age (LIA), along with significant anthropogenic influence on the watershed ecosystem. A five-fold expansion of invasive species, including Typha angustifolia and Phragmites australis, is documented along with marked changes in sediment composition and nutrient input. During the last century, a ten-fold sedimentation rate increase due to land-use changes is observed. The large magnitude of shifts in vegetation, sedimentation, and nutrients during the last few centuries suggest that human activities have made the greatest impact to the marshes of the Hudson Estuary during the last millennium. Climate variability and ecosystem changes similar to those observed at other marshes in northeastern and mid-Atlantic estuaries, attest to the widespread regional signature recorded at Tivoli Bays.

Signs of critical transition in the Everglades wetlands in response to climate and anthropogenic changes.

PubMed

Foti, Romano; del Jesus, Manuel; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2013-04-16

The increasing pressure of climatic change and anthropogenic activities is predicted to have major effects on ecosystems around the world. With their fragility and sensitivity to hydrologic shifts and land-use changes, wetlands are among the most vulnerable of such ecosystems. Focusing on the Everglades National Park, we here assess the impact of changes in the hydrologic regime, as well as habitat loss, on the spatial configuration of vegetation species. Because the current structuring of vegetation clusters in the Everglades exhibits power-law behavior and such behavior is often associated with self-organization and dynamics occurring near critical transition points, the quantification and prediction of the impact of those changes on the ecosystem is deemed of paramount importance. We implement a robust model able to identify the main hydrologic and local drivers of the vegetation species spatial structuring and apply it for quantitative assessment. We find that shifts in the hydropatterns will mostly affect the relative abundance of species that currently colonize specific hydroperiod niches. Habitat loss or disruption, however, would have a massive impact on all plant communities, which are found to exhibit clear threshold behaviors when a given percentage of habitable habitat is lost.

Signs of critical transition in the Everglades wetlands in response to climate and anthropogenic changes

PubMed Central

Foti, Romano; del Jesus, Manuel; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2013-01-01

The increasing pressure of climatic change and anthropogenic activities is predicted to have major effects on ecosystems around the world. With their fragility and sensitivity to hydrologic shifts and land-use changes, wetlands are among the most vulnerable of such ecosystems. Focusing on the Everglades National Park, we here assess the impact of changes in the hydrologic regime, as well as habitat loss, on the spatial configuration of vegetation species. Because the current structuring of vegetation clusters in the Everglades exhibits power-law behavior and such behavior is often associated with self-organization and dynamics occurring near critical transition points, the quantification and prediction of the impact of those changes on the ecosystem is deemed of paramount importance. We implement a robust model able to identify the main hydrologic and local drivers of the vegetation species spatial structuring and apply it for quantitative assessment. We find that shifts in the hydropatterns will mostly affect the relative abundance of species that currently colonize specific hydroperiod niches. Habitat loss or disruption, however, would have a massive impact on all plant communities, which are found to exhibit clear threshold behaviors when a given percentage of habitable habitat is lost. PMID:23576751

Examination of an Oligocene Lacustrine Ecosystem Using C and N Stable Isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schweizer, M. K.; Wooller, M. J.; Toporski, J.; Fogel, M.; Steele, A.

2003-12-01

Stable isotopes of C and N are used to reconstruct the fossil Oligocene (25.8Ma) ecosystem at Lake Enspel, Westerwald, Germany. Enspel was a steep-sided, deep maar lake with anoxic bottom waters. Upon dying, terrestrial and aquatic organisms sank into the sediment where they were colonized by bacteria. These bacteria quickly became fossilized, preserving morphological detail and large amounts of organic matter from the original macroorganism. Carbon and nitrogen are sufficiently preserved in these fossils to permit stable isotope analysis. Stable isotopic signatures identify several trophic levels, including primary producers (terrigenous and aquatic plants, diatoms), primary consumers (tadpoles, some insects), and secondary consumers (carnivores such as fish). Primary producers are associated with depleted d13C and d15N values, primary consumers such as flies are one trophic shift higher, and fish are another shift higher. Signatures for the fish species show heavy-isotope enrichment correlated with increasing length, indicating an increasingly carnivorous diet. This study marks the first attempt to reconstruct a complete fossil ecosystem using stable isotope analysis, and confirms that techniques used to study modern food webs can be applied to extinct webs as well.

Reserve Design under Climate Change: From Land Facets Back to Ecosystem Representation

PubMed Central

Schneider, Richard R.; Bayne, Erin M.

2015-01-01

Ecosystem distributions are expected to shift as a result of global warming, raising concerns about the long-term utility of reserve systems based on coarse-filter ecosystem representation. We tested the extent to which proportional ecosystem representation targets would be maintained under a changing climate by projecting the distribution of the major ecosystems of Alberta, Canada, into the future using bioclimatic envelope models and then calculating the composition of reserves in successive periods. We used the Marxan conservation planning software to generate the suite of reserve systems for our test, varying the representation target and degree of reserve clumping. Our climate envelope projections for the 2080s indicate that virtually all reserves will, in time, be comprised of different ecosystem types than today. Nevertheless, our proportional targets for ecosystem representation were maintained across all time periods, with only minor exceptions. We hypothesize that this stability in representation arises because ecosystems may be serving as proxies for land facets, the stable abiotic landscape features that delineate major arenas of biological activity. The implication is that accommodating climate change may not require abandoning the conventional ecosystem-based approach to reserve design in favour of a strictly abiotic approach, since the two approaches may be largely synonymous. PMID:25978759

Risk and markets for ecosystem services.

PubMed

Bendor, Todd K; Riggsbee, J Adam; Doyle, Martin

2011-12-15

Market-based environmental regulations (e.g., cap and trade, "payments for ecosystem services") are increasingly common. However, few detailed studies of operating ecosystem markets have lent understanding to how such policies affect incentive structures for improving environmental quality. The largest U.S. market stems from the Clean Water Act provisions requiring ecosystem restoration to offset aquatic ecosystems damaged during development. We describe and test how variations in the rules governing this ecosystem market shift risk between regulators and entrepreneurs to promote ecological restoration. We analyze extensive national scale data to assess how two critical aspects of market structure - (a) the geographic scale of markets and (b) policies dictating the release of credits - affect the willingness of entrepreneurs to enter specific markets and produce credits. We find no discernible relationship between policies attempting to ease market entry and either the number of individual producers or total credits produced. Rather, market entry is primarily related to regional geography (the prevalence of aquatic ecosystems) and regional economic growth. Any improvements to policies governing ecosystem markets require explicit evaluation of the interplay between policy and risk elements affecting both regulators and entrepreneurial credit providers. Our findings extend to emerging, regulated ecosystem markets, including proposed carbon offset mechanisms, biodiversity banking, and water quality trading programs.

Regime Shift in an Exploited Fish Community Related to Natural Climate Oscillations.

PubMed

Auber, Arnaud; Travers-Trolet, Morgane; Villanueva, Maria Ching; Ernande, Bruno

2015-01-01

Identifying the various drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts and disentangling their respective influence are critical tasks for understanding biodiversity dynamics and properly managing exploited living resources such as marine fish communities. Unfortunately, the mechanisms and forcing factors underlying regime shifts in marine fish communities are still largely unknown although climate forcing and anthropogenic pressures such as fishing have been suggested as key determinants. Based on a 24-year-long time-series of scientific surveys monitoring 55 fish and cephalopods species, we report here a rapid and persistent structural change in the exploited fish community of the eastern English Channel from strong to moderate dominance of small-bodied forage fish species with low temperature preferendum that occurred in the mid-1990s. This shift was related to a concomitant warming of the North Atlantic Ocean as attested by a switch of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation from a cold to a warm phase. Interestingly, observed changes in the fish community structure were opposite to those classically induced by exploitation as larger fish species of higher trophic level increased in abundance. Despite not playing a direct role in the regime shift, fishing still appeared as a forcing factor affecting community structure. Moreover, although related to climate, the regime shift may have been facilitated by strong historic exploitation that certainly primed the system by favoring the large dominance of small-bodied fish species that are particularly sensitive to climatic variations. These results emphasize that particular attention should be paid to multidecadal natural climate variability and its interactions with both fishing and climate warming when aiming at sustainable exploitation and ecosystem conservation.

Hydrologic influence on redox dynamics in estuarine environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michael, H. A.; Kim, K. H.; Guimond, J. A.; Heiss, J.; Ullman, W. J.; Seyfferth, A.

2017-12-01

Redox conditions in coastal aquifers control reactions that impact nutrient cycling, contaminant release, and carbon budgets, with implications for water resources and ecosystem health. Hydrologic changes can shift redox boundaries and inputs of reactants, especially in dynamic coastal systems subject to fluctuations on tidal, lunar, and longer timescales. We present two examples of redox shifts in estuarine systems in Delaware, USA: a beach aquifer and a saltmarsh. Beach aquifers are biogeochemical hot spots due to mixing between fresh groundwater and infiltrating seawater. At Cape Henlopen, DE, geochemical measurements identified reactions in the intertidal aquifer that include cycling of carbon, nitrogen, iron, and sulfur. Measurements and modeling illustrate that redox potential as well as the locations of redox reactions shift on tidal to seasonal timescales and in response to changing beach and aquifer properties, impacting overall rates of reactions such as denitrification that reduces N loads to coastal waters. In the St. Jones National Estuarine Research Reserve, tidal fluctuations in channels cause periodic groundwater-surface water exchange, water table movement, and intermittent flooding that varies spatially across the saltmarsh. These changes create shifts in redox potential that are greatest near channels and in the top 20 cm of sediments. The magnitude of redox change depends on hydrologic setting (near channels or in marsh interior), hydrologic conditions (tidal stage, seasonal shifts), as well as prevalence of macropores created by crab burrows that change seasonally with crab activity. These shifts correspond to changes in porewater chemistry that have implications for nutrient cycling and carbon export to the ocean. Understanding hydrologic influence on redox geochemistry is critical for predicting how these systems and their ecosystem services may change in the future in response to anthropogenic and climate change.

Dyadic analysis of child and parent trait and state pain catastrophizing in the process of children's pain communication.

PubMed

Birnie, Kathryn A; Chambers, Christine T; Chorney, Jill; Fernandez, Conrad V; McGrath, Patrick J

2016-04-01

When explored separately, child and parent catastrophic thoughts about child pain show robust negative relations with child pain. The objective of this study was to conduct a dyadic analysis to elucidate intrapersonal and interpersonal influences of child and parent pain catastrophizing on aspects of pain communication, including observed behaviours and perceptions of child pain. A community sample of 171 dyads including children aged 8 to 12 years (89 girls) and parents (135 mothers) rated pain catastrophizing (trait and state versions) and child pain intensity and unpleasantness following a cold pressor task. Child pain tolerance was also assessed. Parent-child interactions during the cold pressor task were coded for parent attending, nonattending, and other talk, and child symptom complaints and other talk. Data were analyzed using the actor-partner interdependence model and hierarchical multiple regressions. Children reporting higher state pain catastrophizing had greater symptom complaints regardless of level of parent state pain catastrophizing. Children reporting low state pain catastrophizing had similar high levels of symptom complaints, but only when parents reported high state pain catastrophizing. Higher child and parent state and/or trait pain catastrophizing predicted their own ratings of higher child pain intensity and unpleasantness, with child state pain catastrophizing additionally predicting parent ratings. Higher pain tolerance was predicted by older child age and lower child state pain catastrophizing. These newly identified interpersonal effects highlight the relevance of the social context to children's pain expressions and parent perceptions of child pain. Both child and parent pain catastrophizing warrant consideration when managing child pain.

Is it restoration or reconciliation? California's experience restoring the Sacramento - San Joaquin River Delta provides lessons learned and pathways forward to sustain critical ecosystem functions and services in a highly managed riverine delta.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viers, J. H.; Kelsey, R.

2014-12-01

Reconciling the needs of nature and people in California's Sacramento - San Joaquin River Delta represents one of the most critical ecosystem management imperatives in western North America. Over 150 years the Delta has been managed for near-term human benefits and in the process 95% of riverine and deltaic wetlands have been lost throughout the region. Despite extensive land conversion and alteration of hydrological and physical processes, the Delta remains important habitat for migratory birds and is home to over 60% of California's native fish species. It is also the waterwheel for the state's vast water distribution network and is maintained by a system of constructed levees that are at risk from catastrophic failure due to sea level rise, floods, and/or seismic activity. Such a collapse would have dire consequences for > 25M humans and world's 10th largest economy that depend on its freshwater. Thus, the ultimate cost of this ecosystem alteration and simplification is a riverscape that is no longer reliable for nature or people. For 30 years, attempts to 'restore' Delta ecosystems and improve reliability have met with mixed results. For example, reconnection of floodplains to floodwaters has resulted in improved ecological health for native fishes and recharge to localized aquifers. Uncoordinated releases of discharges below dams, however, have resulted in diminished water quality and populations of indicator species. Attempts to create wildlife friendly farms have been countered by an increase in perennial agriculture and commensurate increases in irrigation water demand. From these lessons learned, we demonstrate three key components of a reconciled Delta that will be necessary in the future: 1) full restoration of critical habitats, reconnecting land and water to rebuild ecosystem function; 2) landscape redesign, incorporating natural and engineered infrastructure to create a biologically diverse, resilient landscape to support both agriculture and natural ecosystems, while reducing the impacts of climate change; and 3) recognition that some ecosystem components, including less resilient species, may be lost and other novel components may emerge. These findings serve to reconcile conflicting demands and restoring ecosystem functions in highly altered wetland landscapes worldwide.