Economic valuation of landslide damage in hilly regions: a case study from Flanders, Belgium.

PubMed

Vranken, Liesbet; Van Turnhout, Pieter; Van Den Eeckhaut, Miet; Vandekerckhove, Liesbeth; Poesen, Jean

2013-03-01

Several regions around the globe are at risk of incurring damage from landslides, but only few studies have concentrated on a quantitative estimate of the overall damage caused by landslides at a regional scale. This study therefore starts with a quantitative economic assessment of the direct and indirect damage caused by landslides in a 2,910 km study area located west of Brussels, a low-relief region susceptible to landslides. Based on focus interviews as well as on semi-structured interviews with homeowners, civil servants and the owners and providers of lifelines such as electricity and sewage, a quantitative damage assessment is provided. For private properties (houses, forest and pasture land) we estimate the real estate and production value losses for different damage scenarios, while for public infrastructure the costs of measures to repair and prevent landslide induced damage are estimated. In addition, the increase in amenity value of forests and grasslands due to the occurrence of landslides is also calculated. The study illustrates that a minority of land (only 2.3%) within the study area is used for dwellings, roads and railway lines, but that these land use types are responsible for the vast majority of the economic damage due to the occurrence of landslides. The annual cost of direct damage due to landsliding amounts to 688,148 €/year out of which 550,740 €/year for direct damage to houses, while the annual indirect damage augments to 3,020,049 €/year out of which 2,007,375 €/year for indirect damage to real estate. Next, the study illustrates that the increase of the amenity value of forests and grasslands outweighs the production value loss. As such the study does not only provide quantitative input data for the estimation of future risks, but also important information for government officials as it clearly informs about the costs associated with certain land use types in landslide areas. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that increases the vulnerability of the built environment. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska’s public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenar...

Risk assessment for invasive species produces net bioeconomic benefits

PubMed Central

Keller, Reuben P.; Lodge, David M.; Finnoff, David C.

2007-01-01

International commerce in live organisms presents a policy challenge for trade globalization; sales of live organisms create wealth, but some nonindigenous species cause harm. To reduce damage, some countries have implemented species screening to limit the introduction of damaging species. Adoption of new risk assessment (RA) technologies has been slowed, however, by concerns that RA accuracy remains insufficient to produce positive net economic benefits. This concern arises because only a small proportion of all introduced species escape, spread, and cause harm (i.e., become invasive), so a RA will exclude many noninvasive species (which provide a net economic benefit) for every invasive species correctly identified. Here, we develop a simple cost:benefit bioeconomic framework to quantify the net benefits from applying species prescreening. Because invasive species are rarely eradicated, and their damages must therefore be borne for long periods, we have projected the value of RA over a suitable range of policy time horizons (10–500 years). We apply the model to the Australian plant quarantine program and show that this RA program produces positive net economic benefits over the range of reasonable assumptions. Because we use low estimates of the financial damage caused by invasive species and high estimates of the value of species in the ornamental trade, our results underestimate the net benefit of the Australian plant quarantine program. In addition, because plants have relatively low rates of invasion, applying screening protocols to animals would likely demonstrate even greater benefits. PMID:17190819

Risk assessment for invasive species produces net bioeconomic benefits.

PubMed

Keller, Reuben P; Lodge, David M; Finnoff, David C

2007-01-02

International commerce in live organisms presents a policy challenge for trade globalization; sales of live organisms create wealth, but some nonindigenous species cause harm. To reduce damage, some countries have implemented species screening to limit the introduction of damaging species. Adoption of new risk assessment (RA) technologies has been slowed, however, by concerns that RA accuracy remains insufficient to produce positive net economic benefits. This concern arises because only a small proportion of all introduced species escape, spread, and cause harm (i.e., become invasive), so a RA will exclude many noninvasive species (which provide a net economic benefit) for every invasive species correctly identified. Here, we develop a simple cost:benefit bioeconomic framework to quantify the net benefits from applying species prescreening. Because invasive species are rarely eradicated, and their damages must therefore be borne for long periods, we have projected the value of RA over a suitable range of policy time horizons (10-500 years). We apply the model to the Australian plant quarantine program and show that this RA program produces positive net economic benefits over the range of reasonable assumptions. Because we use low estimates of the financial damage caused by invasive species and high estimates of the value of species in the ornamental trade, our results underestimate the net benefit of the Australian plant quarantine program. In addition, because plants have relatively low rates of invasion, applying screening protocols to animals would likely demonstrate even greater benefits.

Generous economic investments after basolateral amygdala damage.

PubMed

van Honk, Jack; Eisenegger, Christoph; Terburg, David; Stein, Dan J; Morgan, Barak

2013-02-12

Contemporary economic models hold that instrumental and impulsive behaviors underlie human social decision making. The amygdala is assumed to be involved in social-economic behavior, but its role in human behavior is poorly understood. Rodent research suggests that the basolateral amygdala (BLA) subserves instrumental behaviors and regulates the central-medial amygdala, which subserves impulsive behaviors. The human amygdala, however, typically is investigated as a single unit. If these rodent data could be translated to humans, selective dysfunction of the human BLA might constrain instrumental social-economic decisions and result in more impulsive social-economic choice behavior. Here we show that humans with selective BLA damage and a functional central-medial amygdala invest nearly 100% more money in unfamiliar others in a trust game than do healthy controls. We furthermore show that this generosity is not caused by risk-taking deviations in nonsocial contexts. Moreover, these BLA-damaged subjects do not expect higher returns or perceive people as more trustworthy, implying that their generous investments are not instrumental in nature. These findings suggest that the human BLA is essential for instrumental behaviors in social-economic interactions.

Cascading costs: an economic nitrogen cycle.

PubMed

Moomaw, William R; Birch, Melissa B L

2005-09-01

The chemical nitrogen cycle is becoming better characterized in terms of fluxes and reservoirs on a variety of scales. Galloway has demonstrated that reactive nitrogen can cascade through multiple ecosystems causing environmental damage at each stage before being denitrified to N(2). We propose to construct a parallel economic nitrogen cascade (ENC) in which economic impacts of nitrogen fluxes can be estimated by the costs associated with each stage of the chemical cascade. Using economic data for the benefits of damage avoided and costs of mitigation in the Chesapeake Bay basin, we have constructed an economic nitrogen cascade for the region. Since a single ton of nitrogen can cascade through the system, the costs also cascade. Therefore evaluating the benefits of mitigating a ton of reactive nitrogen released needs to consider the damage avoided in all of the ecosystems through which that ton would cascade. The analysis reveals that it is most cost effective to remove a ton of nitrogen coming from combustion since it has the greatest impact on human health and creates cascading damage through the atmospheric, terrestrial, aquatic and coastal ecosystems. We will discuss the implications of this analysis for determining the most cost effective policy option for achieving environmental quality goals.

Cascading costs: an economic nitrogen cycle.

PubMed

Moomaw, William R; Birch, Melissa B L

2005-12-01

The chemical nitrogen cycle is becoming better characterized in terms of fluxes and reservoirs on a variety of scales. Galloway has demonstrated that reactive nitrogen can cascade through multiple ecosystems causing environmental damage at each stage before being denitrified to N2. We propose to construct a parallel economic nitrogen cascade (ENC) in which economic impacts of nitrogen fluxes can be estimated by the costs associated with each stage of the chemical cascade. Using economic data for the benefits of damage avoided and costs of mitigation in the Chesapeake Bay basin, we have constructed an economic nitrogen cascade for the region. Since a single tonne of nitrogen can cascade through the system, the costs also cascade. Therefore evaluating the benefits of mitigating a tonne of reactive nitrogen released needs to consider the damage avoided in all of the ecosystems through which that tonne would cascade. The analysis reveals that it is most cost effective to remove a tonne of nitrogen coming from combustion since it has the greatest impact on human health and creates cascading damage through the atmospheric, terrestrial, aquatic and coastal ecosystems. We will discuss the implications of this analysis for determining the most cost effective policy option for achieving environmental quality goals.

Viral hemorrhagic fevers of animals caused by positive-stranded RNA viruses

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Here we outline serious diseases of wildlife, food and fiber animals, and non-human primates that cause damaging economic effects on producers all over the world. While some zoonotic viruses that occasionally cause serious disease and death in humans are mentioned, the positive sense RNA viruses ge...

Wildland arson management

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; David T. Butry

2008-01-01

Wildland arson has received scant attention in the resource economics literature, yet is the cause of many large and damaging wildland fires. Research into wildfire management and policy in the United States has been principally concerned with wildfire suppression, fuels treatments, fire science (behavior), and economic efficiency questions. This is unfortunate,...

Landscape changes have greater effects than climate changes on six insect pests in China.

PubMed

Zhao, Zihua; Sandhu, Hardev S; Ouyang, Fang; Ge, Feng

2016-06-01

In recent years, global changes are the major causes of frequent, widespread outbreaks of pests in mosaic landscapes, which have received substantial attention worldwide. We collected data on global changes (landscape and climate) and economic damage caused by six main insect pests during 1951-2010 in China. Landscape changes had significant effects on all six insect pests. Pest damage increased significantly with increasing arable land area in agricultural landscapes. However, climate changes had no effect on damage caused by pests, except for the rice leaf roller (Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee) and armyworm (Mythimna separate (Walker)), which caused less damage to crops with increasing mean temperature. Our results indicate that there is slight evidence of possible offset effects of climate changes on the increasing damage from these two agricultural pests. Landscape changes have caused serious outbreaks of several species, which suggests the possibility of the use of landscape design for the control of pest populations through habitat rearrangement. Landscape manipulation may be used as a green method to achieve sustainable pest management with minimal use of insecticides and herbicides.

Economic resilience lessons from the ShakeOut earthquake scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wein, A.; Rose, A.

2011-01-01

Following a damaging earthquake, “business interruption” (BI)—reduced production of goods and services—begins and continues long after the ground shaking stops. Economic resilience reduces BI losses by making the best use of the resources available at a given point in time (static resilience) or by speeding recovery through repair and reconstruction (dynamic resilience), in contrast to mitigation that prevents damage in the first place. Economic resilience is an important concept to incorporate into economic loss modeling and in recovery and contingency planning. Economic resilience framework includes the applicability of resilience strategies to production inputs and output, demand- and supply-side effects, inherent and adaptive abilities, and levels of the economy. We use our resilience framework to organize and share strategies that enhance economic resilience, identify overlooked resilience strategies, and present evidence and structure of resilience strategies for economic loss modelers. Numerous resilience strategies are compiled from stakeholder discussions about the ShakeOut Scenario (Jones et. al. 2008). Modeled results of ShakeOut BI sector losses reveal variable effectiveness of resilience strategies for lengthy disruptions caused by fire-damaged buildings and water service outages. Resilience is a complement to mitigation and may, in fact, have cost and all-hazards advantages.

QUANTIFYING AND MODELING THE RISK OF DISTURBANCE TO ECOSYSTEMS CAUSED BY INVASIVE SPECIES

EPA Science Inventory

Invasive species are biological pollutants that threaten ecosystem health. Identifying the mechanisms of invasive and developing predictive models of invasion will be critical to developing risk management strategies for limiting the economic and environmental damage caused by i...

Human activity and damaging landslides and floods on Madeira Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baioni, D.

2011-11-01

Over the last few decades, the island of Madeira has become an important offshore tourism and business center, with rapid economic and demographic development that has caused changes to the landscape due to human activity. In Madeira's recent history, there has been an increase over time in the frequency of occurrence of damaging landslide and flood events. As a result, the costs of restoration work due to damage caused by landslide and flood events have become a larger and larger component of Madeira's annual budget. Landslides and floods in Madeira deserve particular attention because they represent the most serious hazard to human life, to property, and to the natural environment and its important heritage value. The work reported on in this paper involved the analysis of historical data regarding damaging landslide and flood events on Madeira (in particular from 1941 to 1991) together with data on geological characteristics, topographic features, and climate, and from field observations. This analysis showed that the main factor triggering the occurrence of damaging landslide and flood events is rainfall, but that the increase in the number of damaging events recorded on Madeira Island, especially in recent times, seems to be related mostly to human activity, specifically to economic development and population growth, rather than to natural factors.

Analysis of the 2011 Mekong flood in Can Tho city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Do, Thi-Chinh; Bubeck, Philip; Nguyen, Viet-Dung; Kreibich, Heidi

2014-05-01

Floods in the Mekong delta occur on a recurring basis during the flood season from July to November, and regular inundations of large areas are a prerequisite for the livelihoods of about 17 million people in the Vietnamese delta. At the same time, large-scale flood events above usual water levels pose a serious hazard that repeatedly caused severe economic damage and losses of life in past decades. The flood event in 2011 in the Mekong Delta heavily impacted Can Tho City and caused substantial damage to various economic sectors. Data from face to face interviews with 480 flood-affected households and 378 small businesses were analysed to gain detailed insights into flood preparedness, early warning, emergency measures, flood impacts and recovery before, during and after the 2011 flood in Can Tho city. Amongst other things, the findings reveal that damage to households is high, often exceeding the amount of several months of income, despite a relatively high level of preparedness. In terms of small businesses, it is found that higher losses indeed occur due to the disruption of production processes compared with direct damage.

Interactive effects of pests increase seed yield.

PubMed

Gagic, Vesna; Riggi, Laura Ga; Ekbom, Barbara; Malsher, Gerard; Rusch, Adrien; Bommarco, Riccardo

2016-04-01

Loss in seed yield and therefore decrease in plant fitness due to simultaneous attacks by multiple herbivores is not necessarily additive, as demonstrated in evolutionary studies on wild plants. However, it is not clear how this transfers to crop plants that grow in very different conditions compared to wild plants. Nevertheless, loss in crop seed yield caused by any single pest is most often studied in isolation although crop plants are attacked by many pests that can cause substantial yield losses. This is especially important for crops able to compensate and even overcompensate for the damage. We investigated the interactive impacts on crop yield of four insect pests attacking different plant parts at different times during the cropping season. In 15 oilseed rape fields in Sweden, we estimated the damage caused by seed and stem weevils, pollen beetles, and pod midges. Pest pressure varied drastically among fields with very low correlation among pests, allowing us to explore interactive impacts on yield from attacks by multiple species. The plant damage caused by each pest species individually had, as expected, either no, or a negative impact on seed yield and the strongest negative effect was caused by pollen beetles. However, seed yield increased when plant damage caused by both seed and stem weevils was high, presumably due to the joint plant compensatory reaction to insect attack leading to overcompensation. Hence, attacks by several pests can change the impact on yield of individual pest species. Economic thresholds based on single species, on which pest management decisions currently rely, may therefore result in economically suboptimal choices being made and unnecessary excessive use of insecticides.

Cyber Gray Space Deterrence

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-21

the South China Sea or Eastern Ukraine, but they may cause more damage to U.S. economic and national security interests. Administration officials...cyberattacks to undermine U.S. economic and military security. Reports and strategies have been worried over but then ignored, and draft legislation...would not, for instance, be a great innovation for the United States to threaten economic sanctions against a state attacking through cyberspace. Thus

Physically-based Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Damage and Economic Losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N.

2012-12-01

Estimating damage and economic losses caused by tropical cyclones (TC) is a topic of considerable research interest in many scientific fields, including meteorology, structural and coastal engineering, and actuarial sciences. One approach is based on the empirical relationship between TC characteristics and loss data. Another is to model the physical mechanism of TC-induced damage. In this talk we discuss about the physically-based approach to predict TC damage and losses due to extreme wind and storm surge. We first present an integrated vulnerability model, which, for the first time, explicitly models the essential mechanisms causing wind damage to residential areas during storm passage, including windborne-debris impact and the pressure-debris interaction that may lead, in a chain reaction, to structural failures (Lin and Vanmarcke 2010; Lin et al. 2010a). This model can be used to predict the economic losses in a residential neighborhood (with hundreds of buildings) during a specific TC (Yau et al. 2011) or applied jointly with a TC risk model (e.g., Emanuel et al 2008) to estimate the expected losses over long time periods. Then we present a TC storm surge risk model that has been applied to New York City (Lin et al. 2010b; Lin et al. 2012; Aerts et al. 2012), Miami-Dade County, Florida (Klima et al. 2011), Galveston, Texas (Lickley, 2012), and other coastal areas around the world (e.g., Tampa, Florida; Persian Gulf; Darwin, Australia; Shanghai, China). These physically-based models are applicable to various coastal areas and have the capability to account for the change of the climate and coastal exposure over time. We also point out that, although made computationally efficient for risk assessment, these models are not suitable for regional or global analysis, which has been a focus of the empirically-based economic analysis (e.g., Hsiang and Narita 2012). A future research direction is to simplify the physically-based models, possibly through parameterization, and make connections to the global loss data and economic analysis.

40 CFR 93.126 - Exempt projects.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

.... Engineering to assess social, economic, and environmental effects of the proposed action or alternatives to... transportation buildings, structures, or facilities). Repair of damage caused by natural disasters, civil unrest...

40 CFR 93.126 - Exempt projects.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

.... Engineering to assess social, economic, and environmental effects of the proposed action or alternatives to... transportation buildings, structures, or facilities). Repair of damage caused by natural disasters, civil unrest...

Cost-of-illness studies: concepts, scopes, and methods

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Liver diseases are one of the main causes of death, and their ever-increasing prevalence is threatening to cause significant damage both to individuals and society as a whole. This damage is especially serious for the economically active population in Korea. From the societal perspective, it is therefore necessary to consider the economic impacts associated with liver diseases, and identify interventions that can reduce the burden of these diseases. The cost-of-illness study is considered to be an essential evaluation technique in health care. By measuring and comparing the economic burdens of diseases to society, such studies can help health-care decision-makers to set up and prioritize health-care policies and interventions. Using economic theories, this paper introduces various study methods that are generally applicable to most disease cases for estimating the costs of illness associated with mortality, morbidity, disability, and other disease characteristics. It also presents concepts and scopes of costs along with different cost categories from different research perspectives in cost estimations. By discussing the epidemiological and economic grounds of the cost-of-illness study, the reported results represent useful information about several evaluation techniques at an advanced level, such as cost-benefit analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, and cost-utility analysis. PMID:25548737

Cost-of-illness studies: concepts, scopes, and methods.

PubMed

Jo, Changik

2014-12-01

Liver diseases are one of the main causes of death, and their ever-increasing prevalence is threatening to cause significant damage both to individuals and society as a whole. This damage is especially serious for the economically active population in Korea. From the societal perspective, it is therefore necessary to consider the economic impacts associated with liver diseases, and identify interventions that can reduce the burden of these diseases. The cost-of-illness study is considered to be an essential evaluation technique in health care. By measuring and comparing the economic burdens of diseases to society, such studies can help health-care decision-makers to set up and prioritize health-care policies and interventions. Using economic theories, this paper introduces various study methods that are generally applicable to most disease cases for estimating the costs of illness associated with mortality, morbidity, disability, and other disease characteristics. It also presents concepts and scopes of costs along with different cost categories from different research perspectives in cost estimations. By discussing the epidemiological and economic grounds of the cost-of-illness study, the reported results represent useful information about several evaluation techniques at an advanced level, such as cost-benefit analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, and cost-utility analysis.

Invasive forest pathogens: Summary of issues, critical needs, and future goals for Forest Service Research and Development

Treesearch

Ned B. Klopfenstein; Jennifer Juzwik; Michael E. Ostry; Mee-Sook Kim; Paul J. Zambino; Robert C. Venette; Bryce A. Richardson; John E. Lundquist; D. Jean Lodge; Jessie A. Glaeser; Susan J. Frankel; William J. Otrosina; Pauline Spaine; Brian W. Geils

2010-01-01

Invasive pathogens have caused immeasurable ecological and economic damage to forest ecosystems. Damage will undoubtedly increase over time due to increased introductions and evolution of invasive pathogens in concert with complex environmental disturbances, such as climate change. Forest Service Research and Development must fulfill critical roles and responsibilities...

Double strand RNA oral delivery methods to induce RNA interference in phloem and plant-sap-feeding insects

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Phloem and plant sap feeding insect pests invade the integrity of crops and fruits to retrieve nutrients in the process damaging food productivity. Hemipteran insects account for a number of economically substantial pests of plants that cause damage to crops by feeding on phloem sap. Halyomorpha hal...

II. Pathogens

Treesearch

Ned B. Klopfenstein; Brian W. Geils

2011-01-01

Invasive fungal pathogens have caused immeasurably large ecological and economic damage to forests. It is well known that invasive fungal pathogens can cause devastating forest diseases (e.g., white pine blister rust, chestnut blight, Dutch elm disease, dogwood anthracnose, butternut canker, Scleroderris canker of pines, sudden oak death, pine pitch canker) (Maloy 1997...

Sinking coastal cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erkens, G.; Bucx, T.; Dam, R.; de Lange, G.; Lambert, J.

2015-11-01

In many coastal and delta cities land subsidence now exceeds absolute sea level rise up to a factor of ten. A major cause for severe land subsidence is excessive groundwater extraction related to rapid urbanization and population growth. Without action, parts of Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Bangkok and numerous other coastal cities will sink below sea level. Land subsidence increases flood vulnerability (frequency, inundation depth and duration of floods), with floods causing major economic damage and loss of lives. In addition, differential land movement causes significant economic losses in the form of structural damage and high maintenance costs for (infra)structure. The total damage worldwide is estimated at billions of dollars annually. As subsidence is often spatially variable and can be caused by multiple processes, an assessment of subsidence in delta cities needs to answer questions such as: what are the main causes? What is the current subsidence rate and what are future scenarios (and interaction with other major environmental issues)? Where are the vulnerable areas? What are the impacts and risks? How can adverse impacts be mitigated or compensated for? Who is involved and responsible to act? In this study a quick-assessment of subsidence is performed on the following mega-cities: Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Dhaka, New Orleans and Bangkok. Results of these case studies will be presented and compared, and a (generic) approach how to deal with subsidence in current and future subsidence-prone areas is provided.

An Orange is an Orange

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Martin

1975-01-01

The citrus thrips is a small insect pest that causes some cosmetic damage, but seldom causes yield reduction, tree kills, or lower the nutritional value or eating quality of citrus fruits. In California however, economic and marketing factors have prompted the massive, unnecessary overuse of insecticides to kill this pest. (Author/MA)

Detection of fungal damaged popcorn using image property covariance features

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Covariance-matrix-based features were applied to the detection of popcorn infected by a fungus that cause a symptom called “blue-eye.” This infection of popcorn kernels causes economic losses because of their poor appearance and the frequently disagreeable flavor of the popped kernels. Images of ker...

Viral hemorrhagic fevers of animals caused by DNA viruses

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Here we outline serious diseases of food and fiber animals that cause damaging economic effect on products all over the world. The only vector-borne DNA virus is included here, such as African swine fever virus, and the herpes viruses discussed have a complex epidemiology characterized by outbreak...

Viral hemorrhagic fevers of animals caused by DNA viruses

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Here we outline serious diseases of food and fiber animals that cause damaging economic effects on producers all over the world. The only vector-borne DNA virus is included here (i.e., African swine fever virus), and the herpesviruses discussed have a complex epidemiology characterized by outbreaks ...

[Ophthalmological opinions for liability affairs material damage (Part I) (author's transl)].

PubMed

Burggraf, H

1979-02-01

German law abides anyone reponsible for the damage he or she has caused to another person's property or corporal integrity. This includes all medical costs directed towards the restitution of health as well as economical damage in direct consequence of the corporal damage. An ophthalmological expert is to state his opinion therefore in accordance with the specific conditions of every individual case and not just according to general charts. Financial compensation is only granted for the actual results of damage inquestion. Prior damage and disability have to be remarked but not to justify a financial compensation. The question of smart-money is dealt with in Part II.

Economic effects of poor IAQ

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haymore, C.; Odom, R.

Poor indoor air quality (IAQ) takes its toll in a variety of ways. It damages health and possessions; it lowers productivity at work; and it diverts resources to diagnosing and solving problems that result from it. Although the economic costs of some of these damages are fairly tangible and easy to quantify, a large portion are hidden. The cumulative impact can easily reach into the billions of dollars. The cost to diagnose, mitigate, and litigate IAQ problems is evidenced by the burgeoning number of businesses providing these services. A recent EPA survey indicated that over 1,500 firms specialize in IAQmore » services, a 25-percent increase from 1988. The median price for evaluating and balancing ventilation systems ranges from $250 to $1,500. The median for duct-cleaning service is about $500 and for asbestos abatement and construction/renovation, about $5,000. Costs can be as high as $50,000 for some of these services. The economic costs of poor IAQ also include the actual damages to property caused by contaminants. Indoor air pollutants can damage metals, paints, textiles, paper, and magnetic storage media and can cause increased soiling, deterioration of appearance, and reduced service life for furniture draperies, interiors, and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. Injury to people represent an even larger cost of poor IAQ. EPA ranks IAQ problems as one of the largest remaining health risks in the US. Health effects range from the mildly irritating, such as headaches and allergies, to the life threatening, such as cancer and heart disease. One study indicated that for every 100 white collar workers, poor IAQ would cause an extra 24 doctor visits per year. This amounts to another $288 million.« less

Semiochemicals to monitor insect pests – future opportunities for an effective host plant volatile blend to attract navel orangeworm in pistachio orchards

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The navel orangeworm (Amyelois transitella) has been a major insect pest of California tree nut orchards for the past five decades. In particular, almond and pistachio orchards suffer major annual economic damage due to both physical and associated fungal damage caused by navel orangeworm larvae. Un...

Effects of climate on emerald ash borer mortality and the potential for ash survival in North America

Treesearch

Ryan D. DeSantis; W. Keith Moser; Dale D. Gormanson; Marshall G. Bartlett; Bradley Vermunt

2013-01-01

Non-native invasive insects such as the emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire; EAB) cause billions of dollars; worth of economic damage and unquantifiable but substantial ecological damage in North America each year. There are methods to mitigate, contain, control, or even eradicate some non-native invasive insects, but so far the spread...

Inhibitory effect of essential oils on decay fungi and mold growth on wood

Treesearch

Vina W. Yang; Carol A. Clausen

2007-01-01

Structural damage and potential health risks caused by wood decay and mold fungi in residential structures have been a major concern for homeowners, building contractors and insurance companies alike. The combined damage from decay fungi and mold claims exceeds several billion US dollars annually. Protection against decay and mold growth on wood is a critical economic...

Invasive Species in the Great Lakes

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Invasive species have significantly changed the Great Lakes ecosystem. An invasive species is a plant or animal that is not native to an ecosystem, and whose introduction is likely to cause economic, human health, or environmental damage.

[A Method Research on Environmental Damage Assessment of a Truck Rollover Pollution Incident].

PubMed

Cai, Feng; Zhao, Shi-ho; Chen, Gang-cai; Xian, Si-shu; Yang, Qing-ling; Zhou, Xian-jie; Yu, Hai

2015-05-01

With high occurrence of sudden water pollution incident, China faces an increasingly severe situation of water environment. In order to deter the acts of environmental pollution, ensure the damaged resources of environment can be restored and compensated, it is very critical to quantify the economic losses caused by the sudden water pollution incident. This paper took truck rollover pollution incidents in Chongqing for an example, established a set of evaluation method for quantifying the environmental damage, and then assessed the environmental damage by the method from four aspects, including the property damage, ecological environment and resources damages, the costs of administrative affairs in emergency disposal, and the costs of investigation and evaluation.

Selection for resistance to Verticillium wilt caused by race 2 isolates of Verticillium dahliae in accessions of lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.).

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Verticillium wilt of lettuce caused by Verticillium dahliae can cause severe economic damage to lettuce producers. The pathogen exists as two races (races 1 and 2) in lettuce, and complete resistance to race 1 is known. Resistance to race 2 isolates has not been reported, and production of race 1 re...

Chapter C. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Landslides

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keefer, David K.

1998-01-01

Central California, in the vicinity of San Francisco and Monterey Bays, has a history of fatal and damaging landslides, triggered by heavy rainfall, coastal and stream erosion, construction activity, and earthquakes. The great 1906 San Francisco earthquake (MS=8.2-8.3) generated more than 10,000 landslides throughout an area of 32,000 km2; these landslides killed at least 11 people and caused substantial damage to buildings, roads, railroads, and other civil works. Smaller numbers of landslides, which caused more localized damage, have also been reported from at least 20 other earthquakes that have occurred in the San Francisco Bay-Monterey Bay region since 1838. Conditions that make this region particularly susceptible to landslides include steep and rugged topography, weak rock and soil materials, seasonally heavy rainfall, and active seismicity. Given these conditions and history, it was no surprise that the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake generated thousands of landslides throughout the region. Landslides caused one fatality and damaged at least 200 residences, numerous roads, and many other structures. Direct damage from landslides probably exceeded $30 million; additional, indirect economic losses were caused by long-term landslide blockage of two major highways and by delays in rebuilding brought about by concern over the potential long-term instability of some earthquake-damaged slopes.

Multidisciplinary approach to evaluate flood damage for residential buildings: first results in Northern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luino, Fabio

2015-04-01

Flooding is the most common natural instability process in Italy. Flood damage are the results of land-use planning policies which, starting chiefly from the late 1950s and early 1960s, did not take into account the geomorphologic-hydraulic characteristics of an area or the its historical data on past flood events. Historically, compared to other areas, riverside property has always been less valuable. Unfortunately, year after year, even areas of high recreational and environmental value were intensely urbanized despite their being exposed to the threat of flooding. As the number of residential dwellings, infrastructure and industrial buildings increased, what was originally a hazard became a risk. For each flood event, the damage depends on the specific land-use of the area and subsequently on the elements at risk in the area involved and its vulnerability, expressed as a percentage of the element that has actually been lost during the event. This is why a comprehensive knowledge of the area it is so important for conducting a detailed survey of an area's structures and infrastructure and to evaluate the degree of vulnerability. This paper presents first results in Italy of the European Project called DAMAGE, the first attempt by the civil protection agencies of several European Union member states to devise a common methodology for the assessment of damage caused by natural or anthropic disasters. The main objective was to create an initial tool for practical and immediate application by civil protection agencies and local governments, to assess damage in a multidimensional perspective that takes into account infrastructure, the economy, the environment and social problems. Within the framework of a broad-based project for the evaluation and collection of reports on damage caused by floods, the CNR-IRPI of Turin and Regione Lombardia have directed attention to the town of Cittiglio (province of Varese), which was struck by severe flash flood in May 2002. One of the aims was to provide public administrations a management tool to help them use damage information. For this purpose a GIS-based model was created that can simulate flood events and evaluate potential direct economic loss due to a catastrophe based on thorough land knowledge coupled with the description of various physical elements of the natural event. The multidisciplinary method can be summarized in the following steps: 1) Event description: definition of flood parameters (flooded area and water level). This definition is possible because of real-time measurements or event simulation through a hydraulic model; 2) Identifying the affected assets in the flooded area; 3) Evaluation of the degree of damage to the exposed elements as a function of event magnitude identified from the measurement of floodwater depths of an event; 4) Attribution of an economic value to exposed assets. Quantification of economic loss by multiplying the economic value of damaged assets and the degree of damage. The methodology can be used to estimate the damage from the impact of floodwater on exposed elements (direct damage) and to quantify the resulting economic loss (tangible damage).

Flood Hazards - A National Threat

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2006-01-01

In the late summer of 2005, the remarkable flooding brought by Hurricane Katrina, which caused more than $200 billion in losses, constituted the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. However, even in typical years, flooding causes billions of dollars in damage and threatens lives and property in every State. Natural processes, such as hurricanes, weather systems, and snowmelt, can cause floods. Failure of levees and dams and inadequate drainage in urban areas can also result in flooding. On average, floods kill about 140 people each year and cause $6 billion in property damage. Although loss of life to floods during the past half-century has declined, mostly because of improved warning systems, economic losses have continued to rise due to increased urbanization and coastal development.

Environmental Disaster and Economic Change: Do tropical cyclones have permanent effects on economic growth and structure?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jina, A.; von der Goltz, J.; Hsiang, S. M.

2011-12-01

Natural disasters have important, often devastating, effects upon economic growth and well-being. Due to this, disasters have become an active area of recent research and policy attention. However, much of this research has been narrowly focused, relying on anecdotal evidence and aggregated data to support conclusions about disaster impacts in the short-term. Employing a new global data set of tropical cyclone exposure from 1960 to 2008, we investigate in greater detail whether permanent changes in economic performance and structure can result from these extreme events in some cases. Our macro-economic analyses use the World Development Indicator dataset and have shown promising results: there are dramatic long-term economic transformations associated with tropical cyclones across a number of countries and industries. This effect is most clearly seen in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and some countries in Latin America, where negative changes in long-term growth trends are observed in the years following a large tropical cyclone. In many economies with a high exposure to tropical cyclone damage, there are noticeable structural changes within the economy. The impacts of disasters might be expressed through various economic and social channels, through direct loss of lives and infrastructure damage; for instance, the destruction of infrastructure such as ports may damage export opportunities where replacement capital is not readily available. These structural changes may have far-reaching implications for economic growth and welfare. Larger nations subjected to the impacts of tropical cyclones are thought to be able to relocate economically important activities that are damaged by cyclones, and so long-term trend changes are not observed, even for events that cause a large immediate decrease in national productivity. By investigating in a more rigorous fashion the hypothesis that the environment triggers these permanent economic changes, our work has implications for the conceptual foundations of both economic theory and sustainable development.

Mass spectrometric approaches to detecting prions and protein conformers

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) can cause substantial economic damage to agriculture. These diseases have characteristically long incubation periods, comparatively short symptomatic intervals, and are invariably fatal. Early detection is important in controlling these diseases. Howe...

Acoustic characteristics of Dynastid beetle stridulations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Oryctes rhinoceros (L.) (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Dynastinae) causes economically important damage to ornamental and commercial coconut palm trees in the western Pacific region that could be mitigated significantly by early detection and treatment. Adults are difficult to detect visually, however...

Predatory mites double the economic injury level of Frankliniella occidentalis in strawberry.

PubMed

Sampson, Clare; Kirk, William D J

2016-01-01

The western flower thrips Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) causes bronzing to strawberry fruit. Management of insecticide-resistant strains relies on the integration of predators with carefully timed use of the few insecticides available. Effective management requires better understanding of economic injury levels (EILs) and the factors that affect them. The densities of F. occidentalis and the predatory mite Neoseiulus cucumeris (Oudemans) (Acari: Phytoseiidae) were manipulated in field experiments. All stages of flower and fruit were susceptible to thrips damage, but larvae caused nearly twice as much damage as adults per individual. The EIL was about four adult thrips per flower in the absence of predators, but increased to over eight at densities of N. cucumeris typical of good establishment in crops. The EIL could be increased by about 0.7 adult thrips per flower for every N. cucumeris per flower. The results were supported by measurements of EILs in commercial crops.

Complete genome sequencing of a novel Newcastle disease virus isolate circulating in layer chickens in the Dominican Republic

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Newcastle disease virus (NDV) causes a serious disease in avian species and is especially important due to the economic damages it causes to the international poultry industry. The virus continues to evolve worldwide and it is important for U.S. veterinarians to be able to recognize and characteriz...

Assessment of the impact of the egg parasitoid, Paratelenoumus saccharalis (Hymenoptera: Platygastridae) on populations of the kudzu bug, Megacopta cribraria (Hemiptera: Plataspidae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The kudzu bug has become a pest of economic importance ever since its introduction to the Southeastern United States from Asia in 2009. It causes serious economic damage to legume crops (soybeans, bean, pigeon pea, mung bean, velvet bean etc.) and is a nuisance to home owners. One natural egg parasi...

Assessment of the impact of the egg parasitoid, Paratelenoumus saccharalis (Hymenoptera: Platygastridae) on populations of the kudzu bug, Megacopta cribraria (Hemiptera: Plataspidae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The kudzu bug has become a pest of economic importance ever since its introduction to the Southeastern United States from Asia in 2009. It causes serious economic damage to legume crops (soybeans, bean, pigeon pea, mung bean, velvet bean etc.) and is a nuisance to home owners. At least one natural e...

Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterlacchini, S.; Frigerio, S.; Giacomelli, P.; Brambilla, M.

2007-11-01

This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004) on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps), poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis. A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event) was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities). This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect damage ranged considerably from 2 840 000 to 9 350 000 €, depending on the selected temporal scenario and the expected closing time of the potentially affected structures. The multi-disciplinary approach discussed in this study may assist local decision makers in determining the nature and magnitude of the expected losses due to a dangerous event, which can be anticipated in a given study area, during a specified time period. Besides, a preventive knowledge of the prospective physical effects and economic consequences may help local decision makers to choose the best prevention and mitigation options and to decide how to allocate resources properly, so that potential benefits are maximised at an acceptable cost.

Trends in Terrorism: 2006

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-07-21

documented are attacks aimed at damaging tourism (e.g. Bali , Luxor) and those disrupting transportation infrastructure (Madrid, London, and plots foiled in...policy focus are (1) attacks that aim to cause economic damage such as attacks on transportation infrastructure, tourism , and oil installations, (2) the...and the allies. Building the group’s own armaments industry is cited as a revised goal as well. See “Papers Reveal Weakening Terror Group,” by Rowan

Economic Impacts of Non-Native Forest Insects in the Continental United States

PubMed Central

Aukema, Juliann E.; Leung, Brian; Kovacs, Kent; Chivers, Corey; Britton, Kerry O.; Englin, Jeffrey; Frankel, Susan J.; Haight, Robert G.; Holmes, Thomas P.; Liebhold, Andrew M.; McCullough, Deborah G.; Von Holle, Betsy

2011-01-01

Reliable estimates of the impacts and costs of biological invasions are critical to developing credible management, trade and regulatory policies. Worldwide, forests and urban trees provide important ecosystem services as well as economic and social benefits, but are threatened by non-native insects. More than 450 non-native forest insects are established in the United States but estimates of broad-scale economic impacts associated with these species are largely unavailable. We developed a novel modeling approach that maximizes the use of available data, accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty, and provides cost estimates for three major feeding guilds of non-native forest insects. For each guild, we calculated the economic damages for five cost categories and we estimated the probability of future introductions of damaging pests. We found that costs are largely borne by homeowners and municipal governments. Wood- and phloem-boring insects are anticipated to cause the largest economic impacts by annually inducing nearly $1.7 billion in local government expenditures and approximately $830 million in lost residential property values. Given observations of new species, there is a 32% chance that another highly destructive borer species will invade the U.S. in the next 10 years. Our damage estimates provide a crucial but previously missing component of cost-benefit analyses to evaluate policies and management options intended to reduce species introductions. The modeling approach we developed is highly flexible and could be similarly employed to estimate damages in other countries or natural resource sectors. PMID:21931766

Does Aerosol Geoengineering the Earth's Climate Pass a Cost-Benefit Test?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, K.; Urban, N.; Tuana, N.

2007-12-01

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are changing the Earth's climate with potentially dangerous consequences. Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of CO2 emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent studies have, however, proposed an alternative strategy: to geoengineer Earth's climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. It is often claimed that aerosol geoengineering would provide net economic benefits because geoengineering requires far lower near-term investments compared to deep cuts in CO2 emissions. However, aerosol geoengineering projects can also cause nontrivial economic costs. This is because aerosol geoengineering hinges on successfully counterbalancing the forcing effects of CO2 emissions (which decay over centuries) with the forcing effects of aerosol emissions (which decay within years). A failure to maintain this delicate balance can lead to abrupt climatic changes, with potentially substantial economic damages. Deferring cuts in CO2 emissions in favor of aerosol geoengineering is hence a deeply uncertain gamble, as it requires so far unknown institutions to reliably control aerosol forcings over centuries. Here we use a simple economic model to evaluate potential costs and benefits of aerosol geoengineering for a wide range of the deeply uncertain parameters. We show that aerosol geoengineering projects may cause economic damages that can far exceed the benefits and may hence fail a cost-benefit test.

Spatiotemporal variability of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts in the Jihlava region in the 1650-1880 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolak, Lukas; Brazdil, Rudolf; Chroma, Katerina; Valasek, Hubert; Reznickova, Ladislava

2017-04-01

Different documentary evidence (taxation records, chronicles, insurance reports etc.) and secondary sources (peer-reviewed papers, historical literature, newspapers) are used for reconstruction of hydrometeorological extremes (HMEs) in the former Jihlava region in the 1651-1880 period. The study describes the system of tax alleviation in Moravia, presents assessment of the impacts of HMEs with regard to physical-geographical characteristic of area studied, presents up to now non-utilized documentary evidence (early fire and hail damage insurance claims) and application of the new methodological approaches for the analysis of HMEs impacts. During the period studied more than 500 HMEs were analysed for the 19 estates (past basic economic units) in the region. Thunderstorm in 1651 in Rančířov (the Jihlava estate), which caused damage on the fields and meadows, is the first recorded extreme event. Downpours causing flash floods and hailstorms are the most frequently recorded natural disasters. Together with floods, droughts, windstorms, blizzards, late frosts and lightning strikes starting fires caused enormous damage as well. The impacts of HMEs are classified into three categories: impacts on agricultural production, material property and the socio-economic impacts. Natural disasters became the reasons of losses of human lives, property, supplies and farming equipment. HMEs caused damage to fields and meadows, depletion of livestock and triggered the secondary consequences as lack of seeds and finance, high prices, indebtedness, poverty and deterioration in field fertility. The results are discussed with respect to uncertainties associated with documentary evidences and their spatiotemporal distribution. The paper shows that particularly archival records, preserved in the Moravian Land Archives in Brno and other district archives, represent a unique source of data contributing to the better understanding of extreme events and their impacts in the past.

Hydrometeorological extremes reconstructed from documentary evidence for the Jihlava region in the 17th-19th centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolak, Lukas; Brazdil, Rudolf; Chroma, Katerina; Valasek, Hubert; Belinova, Monika; Reznickova, Ladislava

2016-04-01

Different documentary evidence (taxation records, chronicles, insurance reports etc.) is used for reconstruction of hydrometeorological extremes (HMEs) in the Jihlava region (central part of the recent Czech Republic) in the 17th-19th centuries. The aim of the study is description of the system of tax alleviation in Moravia, presentation of utilization of early fire and hail damage insurance claims and application of the new methodological approaches for the analysis of HMEs impacts. During the period studied more than 400 HMEs were analysed for the 16 estates (past basic economic units). Late frost on 16 May 1662 on the Nove Mesto na Morave estate, which destroyed whole cereals and caused damage in the forests, is the first recorded extreme event. Downpours causing flash floods and hailstorms are the most frequently recorded natural disasters. Moreover, floods, droughts, windstorms, blizzards, late frosts and lightning strikes starting fires caused enormous damage as well. The impacts of HMEs are classified into three categories: impacts on agricultural production, material property and the socio-economic impacts. Natural disasters became the reasons of losses of human lives, property, supplies and farming equipment. HMEs caused damage to fields and meadows, depletion of livestock and triggered the secondary consequences as lack of seeds and finance, high prices, indebtedness, poverty and deterioration in field fertility. The results are discussed with respect to uncertainties associated with documentary evidences and their spatiotemporal distribution. Archival records, preserved in the Moravian Land Archives in Brno and other district archives, create a unique source of data contributing to the better understanding of extreme events and their impacts.

The Class of 2010: Economic Prospects for Young Adults in the Recession. EPI Briefing Paper #265

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bivens, Josh; Edwards, Kathryn Anne; Hertel-Fernandez, Alexander; Turner, Anna

2010-01-01

It will take years for the labor market to recover from the damage induced by the recent recession. While monthly job losses almost surely peaked in 2009, the unemployment rate will likely peak in 2010 (CBO 2010a). In April, the unemployment rate reached 9.9% and the overall economic cause is simple: firms are not hiring quickly enough, as…

Disrupting mating behavior of Diaphorina citri (Liviidae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Severe economic damage from citrus greening disease, caused by ‘Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus’ bacteria, has stimulated development of methods to reduce mating and reproduction in populations of its insect vector, Diaphorina citri (Hemiptera: Liviidae). Male D. citri find mating partners by walk...

Anticipating environmental and environmental-health implications of extreme storms: ARkStorm scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Alpers, Charles N.; Morman, Suzette A.; San Juan, Carma A.

2016-01-01

The ARkStorm Scenario predicts that a prolonged winter storm event across California would cause extreme precipitation, flooding, winds, physical damages, and economic impacts. This study uses a literature review and geographic information system-based analysis of national and state databases to infer how and where ARkStorm could cause environmental damages, release contamination from diverse natural and anthropogenic sources, affect ecosystem and human health, and cause economic impacts from environmental-remediation, liability, and health-care costs. Examples of plausible ARkStorm environmental and health concerns include complex mixtures of contaminants such as petroleum, mercury, asbestos, persistent organic pollutants, molds, and pathogens; adverse physical and contamination impacts on riverine and coastal marine ecosystems; and increased incidences of mold-related health concerns, some vector-borne diseases, and valley fever. Coastal cities, the San Francisco Bay area, the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, parts of the Central Valley, and some mountainous areas would likely be most affected. This type of screening analysis, coupled with follow-up local assessments, can help stakeholders in California and disaster-prone areas elsewhere better plan for, mitigate, and respond to future environmental disasters.

Probabilistic Methodology for Estimation of Number and Economic Loss (Cost) of Future Landslides in the San Francisco Bay Region, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crovelli, Robert A.; Coe, Jeffrey A.

2008-01-01

The Probabilistic Landslide Assessment Cost Estimation System (PLACES) presented in this report estimates the number and economic loss (cost) of landslides during a specified future time in individual areas, and then calculates the sum of those estimates. The analytic probabilistic methodology is based upon conditional probability theory and laws of expectation and variance. The probabilistic methodology is expressed in the form of a Microsoft Excel computer spreadsheet program. Using historical records, the PLACES spreadsheet is used to estimate the number of future damaging landslides and total damage, as economic loss, from future landslides caused by rainstorms in 10 counties of the San Francisco Bay region in California. Estimates are made for any future 5-year period of time. The estimated total number of future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region during any future 5-year period of time is about 330. Santa Cruz County has the highest estimated number of damaging landslides (about 90), whereas Napa, San Francisco, and Solano Counties have the lowest estimated number of damaging landslides (5?6 each). Estimated direct costs from future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region for any future 5-year period are about US $76 million (year 2000 dollars). San Mateo County has the highest estimated costs ($16.62 million), and Solano County has the lowest estimated costs (about $0.90 million). Estimated direct costs are also subdivided into public and private costs.

Hydrometeorological extremes at the Veselí nad Moravou estate (Czech Republic) in the period 1794-1850 derived from documentary evidence of the economic character

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chromá, Kateřina

2010-05-01

Hydrometeorological extremes influenced always human activities (agriculture, forestry, water management) and caused losses of human lives and great material damage. Systematic meteorological and hydrological observations in the Czech Lands (recent Czech Republic) started generally in the latter half of the 19th century. In order to create long-term series of hydrometeorological extremes, it is necessary to search for other sources of information for their study before 1850. Such direct and indirect information about hydrometeorological extremes is included in documentary evidence (e.g. chronicles, memoirs, diaries, early visual weather observations, newspapers, economic sources etc.). Documentary evidence of economic character belongs to the most important sources, especially documents related to taxation records. Damage to agricultural crops on the fields or damage to hay on meadows due to the hydrological and meteorological phenomena has been a good reason for the abatement of tax duty. Based on the official correspondence of the estate of Veselí nad Moravou (southern Moravia), archival information about taxation from the Moravian Land Archives in Brno was excerpted. Based on it, 46 hydrometeorological extremes which occurred between the years 1794 and 1850 were selected and further analysed. Because of fields and meadows of the above estate were located along the Morava River, reports of damage due to floods were the most frequent, followed by damage due to torrential rains and hailstorms.

Emergent dynamics of the climate-economy system in the Anthropocene.

PubMed

Kellie-Smith, Owen; Cox, Peter M

2011-03-13

Global CO(2) emissions are understood to be the largest contributor to anthropogenic climate change, and have, to date, been highly correlated with economic output. However, there is likely to be a negative feedback between climate change and human wealth: economic growth is typically associated with an increase in CO(2) emissions and global warming, but the resulting climate change may lead to damages that suppress economic growth. This climate-economy feedback is assumed to be weak in standard climate change assessments. When the feedback is incorporated in a transparently simple model it reveals possible emergent behaviour in the coupled climate-economy system. Formulae are derived for the critical rates of growth of global CO(2) emissions that cause damped or long-term boom-bust oscillations in human wealth, thereby preventing a soft landing of the climate-economy system. On the basis of this model, historical rates of economic growth and decarbonization appear to put the climate-economy system in a potentially damaging oscillatory regime.

Research Advances in the Screwworm Eradication Program over the Past 25 Years

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Screwworms, Cochliomyia hominivorax (Coquerel) (Calliphoridae: Chrysomyinae), are devastating pests of warm blooded animals that cause significant economic damage to livestock. The successful campaign to eradicate screwworms from continental North America using the sterile insect technique, led by t...

Understanding feeding behavior of Lygus spp. through electropenetrography

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Electropenetrography (EPG) is a novel technique that allows real-time study of heteropteran feeding. Lygus hesperus and L. lineolaris (Hemiptera: Miridae) are economically important pests affecting production of cotton in the western and mid-southern USA, respectively. Direct-feeding damage caused b...

Book review: Systematics of Cyst Nematodes (Nematoda: Heteroderinae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The cyst nematodes are an important group of plant-parasitic nematodes that cause billions of dollars in economic damage to crops every year. This article reviews a recently published, two-volume monograph that describes the morphological and molecular characteristics of these agriculturally signif...

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: From Injury to Genomic Stability.

PubMed

Sergio, Luiz Philippe da Silva; de Paoli, Flavia; Mencalha, Andre Luiz; da Fonseca, Adenilson de Souza

2017-08-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the fourth cause of death in the world and it is currently presenting a major global public health challenge, causing premature death from pathophysiological complications and rising economic and social burdens. COPD develops from a combination of factors following exposure to pollutants and cigarette smoke, presenting a combination of both emphysema and chronic obstructive bronchitis, which causes lung airflow limitations that are not fully reversible by bronchodilators. Oxidative stress plays a key role in the maintenance and amplification of inflammation in tissue injury, and also induces DNA damages. Once the DNA molecule is damaged, enzymatic mechanisms act in order to repair the DNA molecule. These mechanisms are specific to repair of oxidative damages, such as nitrogen base modifications, or larger DNA damages, such as double-strand breaks. In addition, there is an enzymatic mechanism for the control of telomere length. All these mechanisms contribute to cell viability and homeostasis. Thus, therapies based on modulation of DNA repair and genomic stability could be effective in improving repair and recovery of lung tissue in patients with COPD.

Assessing the Economic Cost of Landslide Damage in Low-Relief Regions: Case Study Evidence from the Flemish Ardennes (Belgium)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vranken, L.; Van Turnhout, P.; Van Den Eeckhaut, M.; Vandekerckhove, L.; Vantilt, G.; Poesen, J.

2012-04-01

Several regions around the globe are at risk to incur damage from landslides. These landslides cause significant structural and functional damage to public and private buildings and infrastructure. Numerous studies investigated how natural factors and human activities control the (re-)activation of landslides. However, few studies have concentrated on a quantitative estimate of the overall damage caused by landslides at a regional scale. This study therefore starts with a quantitative economic assessment of the direct and indirect damage caused by landslides in the Flemish Ardennes (Belgium), a low-relief region (area=ca. 700 km2) susceptible to landslides. Based on focus interviews as well as on semi-structured interviews with homeowners, civil servants (e.g. from the technical services from the various towns), or with the owners and providers of lifelines such as electricity and sewage, we have quantitatively estimated the direct and indirect damage induced by landsliding and this for a 10 to 30 year period (depending on the type of infrastructure or buildings). Economic damage to public infrastructure and buildings was estimated for the entire region, while for private damage 10 cases with severe to small damage were quantified. For example, in the last 10 year, costs of road repair augmented to 814 560 €. Costs to repair damaged roads that have not yet been repaired, were estimated at 669 318 €. In the past 30 years, costs of measures to prevent road damage augmented to at least 14 872 380 €. More than 90% of this budget for preventive measures was spent 30 years ago, when an important freeway was damaged and had to be repaired. These preventive measures (building a grout wall and improving the drainage system) were effective as no further damage has been reported until present. To repair and prevent damage to waterworks and sewage systems, expenditures amounted to 551 044 € and this for the last 30 years. In the past 10 years, a new railway line connecting two important Belgian cities has been built and within that one project, the cost to prevent damage to railroads augmented already to at least 4 567 822 €. The value of real estate located in regions affected by landslides decreased with 15% to 35%. All these damage costs were then used to made potential damage maps. Based on the inventory of landslides, frequency of landslides' re-activation and land use, we categorized regions that are affected by landslides according to their temporal probability of landslide re-activation. This allowed us to produce a (semi-) qualitative risk map for regions that were affected by landslides in the past. This paper shows that, though generally not spectacular, landsliding in low-relief regions susceptible to landslides is a slow but continuously operating process with considerable damage allowing one to identify several medium to high landslide risk zones. As such this study provides important information for government officials, especially those in charge of spatial planning and of town and environmental planning, as it clearly informs about the costs associated with certain land use types in landslide prone areas. This information can be particularly useful for regions in which increasing demand for building land pressures government officials and (local) political leaders to expand the built environment.

Resistance and the control of lice on humans and production animals.

PubMed

Levot, G

2000-03-01

Phthiraptera (lice) are specialised insects adapted to parasitise many warm-blooded vertebrates, including domestic animals and humans. Often, attempts by the host to alleviate the irritation created by lice, causes derangement of the hair/fur coat. Unless treated, this derangement may cause economic losses due to hide damage and/or downgrading of wool/hair/fur. In 1981, application of aqueous insecticide solutions (dipping) for the control of sheep body lice (Bovicola ovis) was largely superseded by off-shears pyrethroid "pour-on" treatments. By 1985, several field failures with these products were found to be due to low-level (20x) insecticide resistance. In 1990, high-level (640x) resistance was diagnosed in a New South Wales population. However, despite 30+years use, organophosphate-based products are still usually effective. Until recently, cattle lice caused little concern. Treatments were applied mainly for aesthetic reasons when cattle were to be presented for sale, and also to prevent damage to fences by rubbing cattle. However, the introduction of quality-management programmes have raised awareness of the economic losses due to hide damage associated with lice infestations. Emerging industries such as emu and alpaca farming have raised the pest status of other louse species, and necessitated insecticidal intervention. In humans, attempts to control head lice, Pediculus humanus capitis, infestations have repeatedly failed around the world.

Seismic risk assessment for road in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toyfur, Mona Foralisa; Pribadi, Krishna S.

2016-05-01

Road networks in Indonesia consist of 446,000 km of national, provincial and local roads as well as toll highways. Indonesia is one of countries that exposed to various natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, etc. Within the Indonesian archipelago, several global tectonic plates interact, such as the Indo-Australian, Pacific, Eurasian, resulting in a complex geological setting, characterized by the existence of seismically active faults and subduction zones and a chain of more than one hundred active volcanoes. Roads in Indonesia are vital infrastructure needed for people and goods movement, thus supporting community life and economic activities, including promoting regional economic development. Road damages and losses due to earthquakes have not been studied widely, whereas road disruption caused enormous economic damage. The aim of this research is to develop a method to analyse risk caused by seismic hazard to roads. The seismic risk level of road segment is defined using an earthquake risk index, adopting the method of Earthquake Disaster Risk Index model developed by Davidson (1997). Using this method, road segments' risk level can be defined and compared, and road risk map can be developed as a tool for prioritizing risk mitigation programs for road networks in Indonesia.

Abnormal causal attribution leads to advantageous economic decision-making: A neuropsychological approach

PubMed Central

Koscik, Timothy R.; Tranel, Daniel

2013-01-01

People tend to assume that outcomes are caused by dispositional factors, e.g., a person’s constitution or personality, even when the actual cause is due to situational factors, e.g., luck or coincidence. This is known as the ‘correspondence bias.’ This tendency can lead normal, intelligent persons to make suboptimal decisions. Here, we used a neuropsychological approach to investigate the neural basis of the correspondence bias, by studying economic decision-making in patients with damage to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC). Given the role of the vmPFC in social cognition, we predicted that vmPFC is necessary for the normal correspondence bias. In our experiment, consistent with expectations, healthy (N=46) and brain-damaged (N=30) comparison participants displayed the correspondence bias when investing and invested no differently when given dispositional or situational information. By contrast, vmPFC patients (N=17) displayed a lack of correspondence bias and invested more when given dispositional than situational information. The results support the conclusion that vmPFC is critical for normal social inference and the correspondence bias, and our findings help clarify the important (and potentially disadvantageous) role of social inference in economic decision-making. PMID:23574584

Repellent response of female agromyzid flies to leafminer-infested bean plants

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Liriomyza sativae Blanchard, L. trifolii (Burgess) and L. huidobrensis (Blanchard) are three invasive leafminer species (Diptera: Agromyzidae) in China that have caused significant economic damage on vegetables and ornamental plants. In the current study, the repellent responses of female adults to ...

Characterization of the Asian citrus psyllid transcriptome

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Asian citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama) and other psyllids are important agricultural pests that cause extensive economic damage by feeding and as vectors of plant pathogens. No psyllid genomes have been characterized, and little is known about the composition of psyllid genomes or the ...

Progress in the mechanization of mating disruption deployment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The American Cranberry, Vaccinium macrocarpon Aiton (Ericaceae) is the most important fruit crop in Wisconsin, accounting for almost 85% of the states total value of fruit production. A challenge faced by cranberry growers is managing for insect pests that cause economic damage. Presently, growers u...

[Characterization of the damage of Spodoptera eridania (Cramer) and Spodoptera cosmioides (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) to structures of cotton plants].

PubMed

Santos, Karen B Dos; Meneguim, Ana M; Santos, Walter J Dos; Neves, Pedro M O J; Santos, Rachel B Dos

2010-01-01

The cotton plant, Gossypium hirsutum, hosts various pests that damage different structures. Among these pests, Spodoptera cosmioides (Walker) and Spodoptera eridania (Cramer) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) are considered important. The objectives of this study were to characterize and to quantify the potential damage of S. eridania and S. cosmioides feeding on different structures of cotton plants. For this purpose, newly-hatched larvae were reared on the following plant parts: leaf and flower bud; leaf and boll; flower bud or boll; and leaf, flower bud and boll. The survival of S. cosmioides and S. eridania was greater than 80% and 70% for larvae fed on cotton plant parts offered separately or together, respectively. One larva of S. eridania damaged 1.7 flower buds, but did not damage bolls, while one larva of S. cosmioides damaged 5.2 flower buds and 3.0 cotton bolls. Spodoptera eridania and S. cosmioides can be considered species with potential to cause economic damage to cotton plants because they can occur throughout cotton developmental stages causing defoliation and losses of reproductive structures. Therefore, the results validate field observations that these two species of Spodoptera are potential pests for cotton.

Application of Green Net Metropolitan Product to Measure ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has been increasingly incorporating the concept of sustainability in its research programs. One facet of this research is the quantitative assessment of the sustainability of urban systems in light of several multidisciplinary sustainability metrics. In this work, we explore the estimation of economic measure of sustainability for Chicago Metropolitan Area (CMA) based on Green Net Metropolitan Product (GNMP), by adapting the economic models of sustainability at the macroeconomic level to regional sustainability. GNMP aims at amending the limitations of Net Domestic Product (NDP), a classical indicator of economic wellbeing, which fails to account for the degradation of environmental and natural resources caused by economic activities. We collect data for computing GNMP from publicly available secondary sources on variables such as gross metropolitan product, net income, emissions, solid waste, etc. In estimating GNMP for CMA, we have accounted for the damage costs associated with pollution emissions based on marginal damage values obtained from the literature using benefit transfers method. In addition, we attempt at accounting for the marginal value of depletion of natural resources in the CMA in terms of water depletion and changes in urban ecosystems such as green spaces. We account for the marginal damage cost associated with solid waste generation. It is expected the preliminary results of this exploration se

Obsolete Laws: Economic and Moral Aspects, Case Study-Composting Standards.

PubMed

Vochozka, Marek; Maroušková, Anna; Šuleř, Petr

2017-12-01

From the early days of philosophy, ethics and justice, there is wide consensus that the constancy of the laws establishes the legal system. On the other hand, the rate at which we accumulate knowledge is gaining speed like never before. Due to the recently increased attention of academics to climate change and other environmental issues, a lot of new knowledge has been obtained about carbon management, its role in nature and mechanisms regarding the formation and degradation of organic matter. A multidisciplinary techno-economic assessment of current composting standards and laws that took into account the current state of knowledge about carbon management was carried out as a case study. Economic and environmental damage caused by outdated laws was revealed. In addition, it was found that the introduction of the best composts into the market is permitted, causing additional negative environmental as well as economic impacts.

Detection of internally bruised blueberries using hyperspectral transmittance imaging

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The consumption of the blueberries all over the world has been constantly increasing over the past three decades due to its health benefits. The internal bruising damage during harvesting and postharvest handling lower overall quality and cause significant economic losses. The main goal of this st...

Viability of commercial cucumber fermentation without nitrogen or air purging

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Bloater defect in cucumber fermentation refers to the formation of gas pockets in the seed cavity or endocarp as the result of carbon dioxide production. Bloater damage is known to cause economic losses for the pickling industry. Microbial activity during fermentation, tissue respiration within the ...

Citrus diseases with global ramifications including citrus canker and huanglongbing

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Although there are a number of diseases that plague citrus production worldwide, two bacterial diseases are particularly problematic. Both are of Asian origin and currently cause severe economic damage: Asiatic citrus canker (ACC) and citrus huanglongbing (HLB). Although ACC has been found in the ...

The cyst nematodes Heterodera and Globodera species in Egypt

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Information concerning the occurrence and distribution of the cyst nematodes (Heterodera spp. and Globodera spp.) in Egypt is important to assess their potential to cause economic damage to many crop plants. A nematode survey was conducted in Alexandria, El Behera and Sohag governorates during 2012-...

Identifying Hail Signatures in Satellite Imagery from the 9-10 August 2011 Severe Weather Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dryden, Rachel L.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Cole, Tony A.; Bell, Jordan

2014-01-01

Severe thunderstorms can produce large hail that causes property damage, livestock fatalities, and crop failure. However, detailed storm surveys of hail damage conducted by the National Weather Service (NWS) are not required. Current gaps also exist between Storm Prediction Center (SPC) hail damage estimates and crop-insurance payouts. NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites can be used to support NWS damage assessments, particularly to crops during the growing season. The two-day severe weather event across western Nebraska and central Kansas during 9-10 August 2011 offers a case study for investigating hail damage signatures by examining changes in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from MODIS imagery. By analyzing hail damage swaths in satellite imagery, potential economic losses due to crop damage can be quantified and further improve the estimation of weather impacts on agriculture without significantly increasing manpower requirements.

The 2011 flood event in the Mekong Delta: preparedness, response, damage and recovery of private households and small businesses.

PubMed

Chinh, Do Thi; Bubeck, Philip; Dung, Nguyen Viet; Kreibich, Heidi

2016-10-01

Floods frequently cause substantial economic and human losses, particularly in developing countries. For the development of sound flood risk management schemes that reduce flood consequences, detailed insights into the different components of the flood risk management cycle, such as preparedness, response, flood impact analyses and recovery, are needed. However, such detailed insights are often lacking: commonly, only (aggregated) data on direct flood damage are available. Other damage categories such as losses owing to the disruption of production processes are usually not considered, resulting in incomplete risk assessments and possibly inappropriate recommendations for risk management. In this paper, data from 858 face-to-face interviews among flood-prone households and small businesses in Can Tho city in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta are presented to gain better insights into the damage caused by the 2011 flood event and its management by households and businesses. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Ootegem, Luc; SHERPPA — Ghent University; Verhofstadt, Elsy

Depth–damage-functions, relating the monetary flood damage to the depth of the inundation, are commonly used in the case of fluvial floods (floods caused by a river overflowing). We construct four multivariate damage models for pluvial floods (caused by extreme rainfall) by differentiating on the one hand between ground floor floods and basement floods and on the other hand between damage to residential buildings and damage to housing contents. We do not only take into account the effect of flood-depth on damage, but also incorporate the effects of non-hazard indicators (building characteristics, behavioural indicators and socio-economic variables). By using a Tobit-estimationmore » technique on identified victims of pluvial floods in Flanders (Belgium), we take into account the effect of cases of reported zero damage. Our results show that the flood depth is an important predictor of damage, but with a diverging impact between ground floor floods and basement floods. Also non-hazard indicators are important. For example being aware of the risk just before the water enters the building reduces content damage considerably, underlining the importance of warning systems and policy in this case of pluvial floods. - Highlights: • Prediction of damage of pluvial floods using also non-hazard information • We include ‘no damage cases’ using a Tobit model. • The damage of flood depth is stronger for ground floor than for basement floods. • Non-hazard indicators are especially important for content damage. • Potential gain of policies that increase awareness of flood risks.« less

Water scarcity and economic damage in Europe: regionally relevant simulations from 2000 to 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Jeroen; de Roo, Ad; Bisselink, Bernard; Gelati, Emiliano; Karssenberg, Derek; de Jong, Steven

2017-04-01

Water availability is unequally distributed across Europe. Where certain regions experience a surplus of water, other areas have limited water availability which causes economic damage to the water using sectors such as households, industries or agriculture. Future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions are expected to further increase the competition for available water that is already present in Europe. This means there is an increasing need for models that are able to simulate this multi-sectorial system of water availability and demand and incorporate the socio-economic component required for robust decisions and policy support. We present our modelling study which is focused at providing regionally relevant pan-European water scarcity and economic damage simulations. First we developed regionally relevant pan-European water demand simulations for the household and industry sector from 2000 up to 2050. For the household sector we developed a model to simulate water use based on water price, income and several other relevant variables at NUTS-3 level (over 1200 regions in Europe). Alternatively, we modelled industrial water use based on regionally downscaled water productivity values at the national level for ten sub-sections of the NACE (Nomenclature of Economic Activities) classification for economic activities. Subsequently we used scenario projections of our explanatory variables to make scenario simulations of water demand from 2000 up to 2050 at pan-European scale with unprecedented spatial and sub-sectorial detail. In order to analyze the European water use system we integrated these water demand scenarios into the hydrological rainfall-runoff model called LISFLOOD (Distributed Water Balance and Flood Simulation Model), which incorporates a vegetation module for the simulation of crop yield and irrigation water demand of the agriculture sector. We simulated river discharge and groundwater availability for abstractions of water using sectors across Europe from 2000 up to 2050 at 5km grid level for multiple climate and socio-economic scenarios. This allowed us to identify regions with water scarcity problems from the recent past up to 2050 and quantify the economic damage that can be attributed to the limited water availability. Results showed several regions where substantially more water is extracted from the system than what would be sustainable into the future. Furthermore, we analyzed how changing water prices or relocation of economic activities could reduce future water scarcity problems and decrease the related economical damage. We found that for some regions, relatively small measurers already could have a positive impact on water scarcity problems.

Factors influencing to earthquake caused economical losses on urban territories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurtaev, B.; Khakimov, S.

2005-12-01

Questions of assessment of earthquake economical losses on urban territories of Uzbekistan, taking into account damage forming factors, which are increqasing or reducing economical losses were discussed in the paper. Buildings and facilities vulnerability factors were classified. From total value (equal to 50) were selected most important ones. Factors ranging by level of impact and weight function in loss assessment were ranged. One group of damage forming factors includs seismic hazard assessment, design, construction and maintenance of building and facilities. Other one is formed by city planning characteristics and includes : density of constructions and population, area of soft soils, existence of liquefaction susceptible soils and etc. To all these factors has been given weight functions and interval values by groups. Methodical recomendations for loss asessment taking into account above mentioned factors were developed. It gives possibility to carry out preventive measures for protection of vulnerable territories, to differentiate cost assessment of each region in relation with territory peculiarity and damage value. Using developed method we have ranged cities by risk level. It has allowed to establish ratings of the general vulnerability of urban territories of cities and on their basis to make optimum decisions, oriented to loss mitigation and increase of safety of population. Besides the technique can be used by insurance companies for estimated zoning of territory, development of effective utilization schema of land resources, rational town-planning, an economic estimation of used territory for supply with information of the various works connected to an estimation of seismic hazard. Further improvement of technique of establishment of rating of cities by level of damage from earthquakes will allow to increase quality of construction, rationality of accommodation of buildings, will be an economic stimulator for increasing of seismic resistance of building.

Genomics of compositae weeds: EST libraries, microarrays, and evidence of introgression

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

• Premise of Study: Weeds cause considerable environmental and economic damage. However, genomic characterization of weeds has lagged behind that of model plants and crop species. Here we report on the development of genomic tools and resources for 11 weeds from the Compositae family that can serve ...

Halyomorpha halys (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) response to pyramid traps baited with attractive light and pheromonal stimuli

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Halyomorpha halys is an invasive insect that causes severe economic damage to multiple agricultural commodities. Several monitoring techniques have been developed to monitor H. halys including pheromone and light-baited black pyramid traps. Here, we evaluated the attractiveness of these traps bait...

Forestry-related pathways for the movement of exotic plant pests into and within the greater Caribbean region

Treesearch

Leslie Newton; Heike Meissner; Andrea. Lemay

2011-01-01

Forests of the Greater Caribbean Region (GCR) are important ecologically and economically. These unique ecosystems are under increasing pressure from exotic pests, which may cause extensive environmental damage and cost billions of dollars in control programs, lost production, and forest restoration.

Greater heritability of photosynthesis in maize grown under elevated ozone

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution is estimated to reduce maize yields up to 10% in the US. O3 causes damage to cellular processes by forming reactive oxygen species that lead to reductions in photosynthetic capacity, accelerated leaf senescence, and ultimately a decrease in reproductive and economic...

Sex Determination in the Chinese Rose Beetle, Adoretus sinicus, and overview of Adoretus species of biosecurity concern

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Chinese rose beetle, Adoretus sinicus Burmeister (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Rutelinae: Adoretini), is a broadly polyphagous scarab beetle that is economically important and causes damage to a wide variety of host plants including agricultural crops and ornamentals in Southeast Asia, China, the ...

Identification of unique volatile compounds associated with repelling whiteflies (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) in desert watermelon (Citrullus colocynthis)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Commercial watermelon cultivars (Citrullus lanatus var. lanatus) share a narrow genetic base and are susceptible to many insect pests and diseases. The insects include whiteflies which cause serious economic damages to this important cucurbit crop. However, several United States Plant Introduction a...

Spectral response of spider mite infested cotton: Mite density and miticide rate study

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Two-spotted spider mites are important pests in many agricultural systems. Spider mites (Acari: Tetranychidae) have been found to cause economic damage in corn, cotton, and sorghum. Adult glass vial bioassays indicate that Temprano™ (abamectin) is the most toxic technical miticide for adult two-spot...

2015 nationwide survey revealed Barley stripe mosaic virus in Korean barley fields

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A seed-transmitted virus has consistently caused significant economic damage to barley crops in Korea in recent years, and may be increasing because many farmers save seed for replanting. Because some barley seed is imported, there is the potential for introduction of new seed-transmitted viruses, c...

Controlling Sirex noctilio in North America: a new paradigm

Treesearch

Nathan M. Schiff; A. Dan Wilson

2007-01-01

The Sirex noctilio woodwasp, a major pest of North American pines in southern hemisphere countries, recently has entered North America, and become established in the northeast. The spread of Sirex noctilio is expected to be rapid. If unchecked it will likely cause significant economic damage to paper and timber industries...

V. Terrestrial vertebrates

Treesearch

Dean Pearson; Deborah Finch

2011-01-01

Within the Interior West, terrestrial vertebrates do not represent a large number of invasive species relative to invasive weeds, aquatic vertebrates, and invertebrates. However, several invasive terrestrial vertebrate species do cause substantial economic and ecological damage in the U.S. and in this region (Pimental 2000, 2007; Bergman and others 2002; Finch and...

Payments for Improved Ecostructure (PIE): Funding for the Coexistence of Humans and Wolves in Finland.

PubMed

Hiedanpää, Juha; Kalliolevo, Hanna; Salo, Matti; Pellikka, Jani; Luoma, Mikael

2016-09-01

The gray wolf (Canis lupus) is a source of concern and a cause of damage to people's livelihoods. In Finland, as in most countries, actual damages are compensated according to the real lost value. However, often, the suffered damages are larger than what is compensated, and worries and fears are not accounted for at all. The purpose of our transdisciplinary action research is to contribute to the process of modifying the scientific, administrative, and everyday habits of mind in order to meet the practical prerequisites of living with the wolf. In 2014, we planned and participated in a process designed to update Finland's wolf population management plan. During our study, we applied e-deliberation, conducted a national wolf survey, and organized solution-oriented workshops in wolf territory areas around Finland. By applying abductive reasoning, we illustrate the basic features of an economic scheme that would help finance and coordinate practical modifications to the ecological, economic, and institutional circumstances and settings in wolf territory areas. The potential economic instrument is based on payments for improved ecostructures. In our paper, we describe the organization, functioning, and financing of this instrument in detail.

Payments for Improved Ecostructure (PIE): Funding for the Coexistence of Humans and Wolves in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiedanpää, Juha; Kalliolevo, Hanna; Salo, Matti; Pellikka, Jani; Luoma, Mikael

2016-09-01

The gray wolf ( Canis lupus) is a source of concern and a cause of damage to people's livelihoods. In Finland, as in most countries, actual damages are compensated according to the real lost value. However, often, the suffered damages are larger than what is compensated, and worries and fears are not accounted for at all. The purpose of our transdisciplinary action research is to contribute to the process of modifying the scientific, administrative, and everyday habits of mind in order to meet the practical prerequisites of living with the wolf. In 2014, we planned and participated in a process designed to update Finland's wolf population management plan. During our study, we applied e-deliberation, conducted a national wolf survey, and organized solution-oriented workshops in wolf territory areas around Finland. By applying abductive reasoning, we illustrate the basic features of an economic scheme that would help finance and coordinate practical modifications to the ecological, economic, and institutional circumstances and settings in wolf territory areas. The potential economic instrument is based on payments for improved ecostructures. In our paper, we describe the organization, functioning, and financing of this instrument in detail.

Development of evaluation metod of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

2012-12-01

Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. In particular, the Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of climate change adaptation strategy. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published "Statistics of flood", which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. Based on these flood data, we constructed a flood database system for Tokyo metropolitan area for the period from 1961 to 2008 by using ArcGIS software.Based on these flood data , we created flood risk curve, representing the relation ship between damage and exceedbability of flood for the period 1976-2008. Based on the flood risk cruve, we aim to evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause of regional difference in flood risk at Tokyo metropolitan area by considering effect of socio-economic change and climate change

Effect of cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera Hübner) caused injury on maize grain content, especially regarding to the protein alteration.

PubMed

Keszthelyi, S; Pál-Fám, F; Kerepesi, I

2011-03-01

The cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera Hübner), which migrated in the Carpathian-basin from Mediterraneum in the last decades, is becoming an increasingly serious problem for maize producers in Hungary. In several regions the damage it causes has reached the threshold of economic loss, especially in the case of the sweet maize cultivation. The aim of the research was to determine the changing of ears weights and in-kernel accumulation and alteration in grain as a function of cotton bollworm mastication.Our investigation confirmed that there is an in-kernel and protein pattern change of maize grain by cotton bollworm. Our results proved the significant damaging of each part of ears by cotton bollworm masticating (the average weight loss of ears: 13.99%; the average weight loss of grains: 14.03%; the average weight loss of cobs: 13.74%), with the exception of the increasing of the grain-cob ratio. Our examinations did not prove the water loss - that is the "forced maturing" - caused by the damage. Decreasing of raw fat (control: 2.8%; part-damaged: 2.6%; damaged: 2.4%) and starch content (control: 53.1%; part-damaged: 46.6%; damaged: 44.7%) were registered as a function of injury. In contrast, the raw protein content was increased (control: 4.7%; part-damaged: 5.3%; damaged: 7.4%) by maize ear masticating. The most conspicuous effect on protein composition changing was proved by comparison of damaged grain samples by SDS PAGE. Increased amounts of 114, 50, 46 and 35 kDa molecular mass proteins were detected which explained the more than 50% elevation of raw protein content. The statistical analysis of molecular weights proved the protein realignment as a function of the pest injuries, too.

Natural Hazards - A National Threat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geological Survey, U.S.

2007-01-01

The USGS Role in Reducing Disaster Losses -- In the United States each year, natural hazards cause hundreds of deaths and cost billions of dollars in disaster aid, disruption of commerce, and destruction of homes and critical infrastructure. Although the number of lives lost to natural hazards each year generally has declined, the economic cost of major disaster response and recovery continues to rise. Each decade, property damage from natural hazards events doubles or triples. The United States is second only to Japan in economic damages resulting from natural disasters. A major goal of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is to reduce the vulnerability of the people and areas most at risk from natural hazards. Working with partners throughout all sectors of society, the USGS provides information, products, and knowledge to help build more resilient communities.

A large-scale assessment of European rabbit damage to agriculture in Spain.

PubMed

Delibes-Mateos, Miguel; Farfán, Miguel Ángel; Rouco, Carlos; Olivero, Jesús; Márquez, Ana Luz; Fa, John E; Vargas, Juan Mario; Villafuerte, Rafael

2018-01-01

Numerous small and medium-sized mammal pests cause widespread and economically significant damage to crops all over the globe. However, most research on pest species has focused on accounts of the level of damage. There are fewer studies concentrating on the description of crop damage caused by pests at large geographical scales, or on analysis of the ecological and anthropogenic factors correlated with these observed patterns. We investigated the relationship between agricultural damage by the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and environmental and anthropogenic variables throughout Spain. Rabbit damage was mainly concentrated within the central-southern regions of Spain. We found that rabbit damage increased significantly between the early 2000s and 2013. Greater losses were typical of those areas where farming dominated and natural vegetation was scarce, where main railways and highways were present, and where environmental conditions were generally favourable for rabbit populations to proliferate. From our analysis, we suggest that roads and railway lines act as potential corridors along which rabbits can spread. The recent increase in Spain of such infrastructure may explain the rise in rabbit damage reported in this study. Our approach is valuable as a method for assessing drivers of wildlife pest damage at large spatial scales, and can be used to propose methods to reduce human - wildlife conflict. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Quantification of flash flood economic risk using ultra-detailed stage-damage functions and 2-D hydraulic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrote, J.; Alvarenga, F. M.; Díez-Herrero, A.

2016-10-01

The village of Pajares de Pedraza (Segovia, Spain) is located in the floodplain of the Cega River, a left bank tributary of the Douro River. Repeated flash flood events occur in this small village because of its upstream catchment area, mountainous character and impermeable lithology, which reduce concentration time to just a few hours. River overbank flow has frequently caused flooding and property damage to homes and rural properties, most notably in 1927, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2013 and 2014. Consequently, a detailed analysis was carried out to quantify the economic risk of flash floods in peri-urban and rural areas. Magnitudes and exceedance probabilities were obtained from a flood frequency analysis of maximum discharges. To determine the extent and characteristics of the flooded area, we performed 2D hydraulic modeling (Iber 2.0 software) based on LIDAR (1 m) topography and considering three different scenarios associated with the initial construction (1997) and subsequent extension (2013) of a linear defense structure (rockfill dike or levee) to protect the population. Specific stage-damage functions were expressly developed using in situ data collection for exposed elements, with special emphasis on urban-type categories. The average number of elements and their unit value were established. The relationship between water depth and the height at which electric outlets, furniture, household goods, etc. were located was analyzed; due to its effect on the form of the function. Other nonspecific magnitude-damage functions were used in order to compare both economic estimates. The results indicate that the use of non-specific magnitude-damage functions leads to a significant overestimation of economic losses, partly linked to the use of general economic cost data. Furthermore, a detailed classification and financial assessment of exposed assets is the most important step to ensure a correct estimate of financial losses. In both cases, this should include a consideration of the socio-economic and cultural conditions prevailing in the area, as well as the types of flood that affect it.

Measuring flood footprint of a regional economy - A case study for the UK flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, D.

2013-12-01

Analysis of the urban economy and society is central to understanding the broad impacts of flooding and to identify cost-effective adaptation and mitigation measures. Assessments of the flooding impacts on cities have traditionally focused on the initial impact on people and assets. These initial estimates (so-called ';direct damage') are useful both in understanding the immediate implications of damage, and in marshalling the pools of capital and supplies required for re-building after an event. Since different economies as well as societies are coupled, especially under the current economic crisis, any small-scale damage may be multiplied and cascaded throughout wider economic systems and social networks. The direct and indirect damage is currently not evaluated well and could be captured by quantification of what we call the flood footprint. Flooding in one location can impact the whole UK economy. Neglecting these knock-on costs (i.e. the true footprint of the flood) means we might be ignoring the economic benefits and beneficiaries of flood risk management interventions. In 2007, for example, floods cost the economy about £3.2 bn directly, but the wider effect might actually add another 50% to 250% to that. Flood footprint is a measure of the exclusive total socioeconomic impact that is directly and indirectly caused by a flood event to the flooding region and wider economic systems and social networks. We adopt the UK 2012 flooding. An input-output basic dynamic inequalities (BDI) model is used to assess the impact of the floodings on the level of a Yorkshire economy, accounting for interactions between industries through demand and supply of intermediate consumption goods with a circular flow. After the disaster the economy will be unbalanced. The recovery process finishes when the economy is completely balance, i.e., when labour production capacity equals demands and production and all the variables reach pre-disaster levels. The analysis is carried out focusing on 42 sectors. Most regional data have been produced from the Multisectoral Dynamic Model of the UK economy. The flooding caused a 3.56% direct damage in the Yorkshire economy, while the indirect accounted for 14.58%.Utilities and transportation where the sectors that suffered the greatest direct impact. This impact indirectly transferred through business and supply chain to services, construction and primary industries.

Environment and drug trafficking.

PubMed

Bryson, L O

1992-01-01

Illicit drug trafficking is a very complex matter, not only because it causes serious and pernicious problems in the socio-economic sphere, but because drug-taking can lead to personal degradation. To this situation, lamentable enough in itself, must be added the immense ecological and environmental damage, which presents grave and serious dangers for the planet.

Using mitogenomic and nuclear ribosomal sequence data to investigate the phylogeny of the Xiphinema americanum species complex

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Nematodes within the Xiphinema americanum species complex are economically important because they vector nepoviruses which cause considerable damage to a variety of agricultural crops. The taxonomy of X. americanum is controversial, with the number of putative species being the subject of debate. Ac...

Characterization of insect resistance loci in the USDA soybean germplasm collection using genome-wide association studies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Management of insects that cause economic damage to yields of soybean mainly rely on insecticide application. Sources of resistance in soybean plant introduction (PIs) to different insect pests have been reported, and some of these resistance sources, like for the soybean aphid (SBA) have been used ...

Rising Costs and Dwindling Budgets Force Libraries to Make Damaging Cuts in Collections and Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nicklin, Julie L.

1992-01-01

Financial pressures brought on by economic recession and increasing costs of academic materials are causing academic libraries to cancel journal subscriptions, reduce book orders, neglect book preservation, cut staff positions, and reduce general services while seeking new revenue sources. Examples of libraries cutting back include those at…

Biology, diagnosis and management of Heterobasidion Root Disease of southern pines

Treesearch

Tyler J. Dreaden; Jason A.  Smith; Michelle M. Cram; David R   Coyle

2016-01-01

Heterobasidion root disease (previously called annosum, annosus, or Fomes root disease / root rot) is one of the most economically damaging forest diseases in the Northern Hemisphere. Heterobasidion root disease (HRD) in the southeastern U.S. is caused by the pathogen Heterobasidion irregulare, which infects loblolly, longleaf, pitch, shortleaf, slash, Virginia, and...

Systematic development of Phytophthora species-specific mitochondrial diagnostic markers for economically important members of the genus

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The genus Phytophthora contains many invasive species to the USA that have the potential to cause significant damage to agriculture and native ecosystems. A genus and species-specific diagnostic assay was previously reported based on mitochondrial gene order differences that allowed for the systemat...

Effects of pre- and post-harvest application of selenium on inducing disease resistance and selenium accumulation in fruits

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Botrytis cinerea, a ubiquitous fungal pathogen, causes severe damage (gray mold rot) on a large number of economically important fruits, vegetables, and ornamental crops at both pre- and post-harvest, which renders fruits unmarketable. Penicillium expansum is a widely spread fungal pathogen that cau...

Estimating suitable environments for invasive plant species across large landscapes: A remote sensing strategy using Landsat 7 ETM+

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The key to reducing ecological and economic damage caused by invasive plant species is to locate and eradicate new invasions before they threaten native biodiversity and ecological processes. We used Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery to estimate suitable environments for four invasive pl...

A synonymic revision of the Prunus-infesting aphid genus Hyalopterus Koch 1854 (Hemiptera: Aphididae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The three species of Hyalopterus Koch cause economic damage to various stone fruit trees of the genus Prunus L., H. pruni (Geoffroy), H. amygdali (Blanchard), and H. persikonus Miller et al. Although the third species was established recently, it has been suggested that one of the twelve older synon...

Distribution and infestation rate of cyst nematodes (Tylenchida: Heteroderidae) in cabbage growing areas in Samsun

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Information concerning the occurrence and distribution of cyst nematodes (Heterodera spp.) in Samsun, Turkey is needed to assess their potential to cause economic damage on many crop plants. Surveys on the distribution and infestation rates of cyst nematodes in cabbage fields in Samsun were conducte...

Missing the Boat on Invasive Alien Species: A Review of Post-Secondary Curricula in Canada

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Andrea L.; Bazely, Dawn R.; Yan, Norman D.

2011-01-01

Invasive alien species (IAS) cause major environmental and economic damage worldwide, and also threaten human food security and health. The impacts of IAS are expected to rise with continued globalization, land use modification, and climate change. Developing effective strategies to deal with IAS requires a collaborative, interdisciplinary…

Newcastle disease virus fusion and haemagglutinin-neuraminidase proteins contribute to its macrophage host range

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Newcastle disease virus (NDV) is an avian paramyxovirus that causes significant economic damage to international poultry industry. Different strains of NDV express a wide range of virulence that is primarily dependent on the amino acid sequence of the strain’s fusion (F) protein cleavage site. Two c...

Invasive plant species in hardwood tree plantations

Treesearch

Rochelle R. Beasley; Paula M. Pijut

2010-01-01

Invasive plants are species that can grow and spread aggressively, mature quickly, and invade an ecosystem causing economic and environmental damage. Invasive plants usually invade disturbed areas, but can also colonize small areas quickly, and may spread and dominate large areas in a few short years. Invasive plant species displace native or desirable forest...

Wild sunflower species as a genetic resource for resistance to sunflower broomrape (Orobanche cumana Wallr.)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Broomrape (Orobanche cumana Wallr.) is a parasitic weed that causes economic damage in sunflower production in many countries, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, Spain, Turkey, Israel, Iran, Kazakhstan, and China. Genes for resistance to broomrape races A, B, C, D, and E are present in variet...

Harmful Non-Indigenous Species in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Congress of the U.S., Washington, DC. Office of Technology Assessment.

Non-indigenous species (NIS) are common in the United States landscape. While some are beneficial, others are harmful and can cause significant economic, environmental, and health damage. This study, requested by the U.S. House Merchant Marine and Fisheries Committee, examined State and Federal policies related to these harmful NIS. The report is…

Identification and confirmation of greenbug resistance loci in an advanced mapping population of sorghum

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Greenbug infestations to sorghum can cause severe and above economic threshold damage in the Great Plains of the United States. This study was to identify quantitative trait loci (QTL) and potential candidate genes residing within the QTL region responsible for greenbug resistance in an advanced ma...

The ShakeOut Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

2008-01-01

This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four categories: building damages, non-structural damages, damage to lifelines and infrastructure, and fire losses. The magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut earthquake is modeled to cause about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses. These numbers are as low as they are because of aggressive retrofitting programs that have increased the seismic resistance of buildings, highways and lifelines, and economic resiliency. These numbers are as large as they are because much more retrofitting could still be done. The earthquake modeled here may never happen. Big earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault are inevitable, and by geologic standards extremely common, but probably will not be exactly like this one. The next very damaging earthquake could easily be on another fault. However, lessons learned from this particular event apply to many other events and could provide benefits in many possible future events.

Supply and demand analysis for flood insurance by using logistic regression model: case study at Citarum watershed in South Bandung, West Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidi, P.; Mamat, M.; Sukono; Supian, S.

2017-01-01

Floods have always occurred in the Citarum river basin. The adverse effects caused by floods can cover all their property, including the destruction of houses. The impact due to damage to residential buildings is usually not small. Indeed, each of flooding, the government and several social organizations providing funds to repair the building. But the donations are given very limited, so it cannot cover the entire cost of repair was necessary. The presence of insurance products for property damage caused by the floods is considered very important. However, if its presence is also considered necessary by the public or not? In this paper, the factors that affect the supply and demand of insurance product for damaged building due to floods are analyzed. The method used in this analysis is the ordinal logistic regression. Based on the analysis that the factors that affect the supply and demand of insurance product for damaged building due to floods, it is included: age, economic circumstances, family situations, insurance motivations, and lifestyle. Simultaneously that the factors affecting supply and demand of insurance product for damaged building due to floods mounted to 65.7%.

Pan-European household and industrial water demand: regional relevant estimations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Jeroen; Reynaud, Arnaud; de Roo, Ad

2016-04-01

Sustainable water management is of high importance to provide adequate quality and quantity of water to European households, industries and agriculture. Especially since demographic, economic and climate changes are expected to increase competition for water between these sectors in the future. A shortage of water implies a reduction in welfare of households or damage to economic sectors. This socio-economic component should be incorporated into the decision-making process when developing water allocation schemes, requiring detailed water use information and cost/benefit functions. We now present the results of our study which is focused at providing regionally relevant pan-European water demand and cost-benefit estimations for the household and industry sector. We gathered consistent data on water consumption, water prices and other relevant variables at the highest spatial detail available from national statistical offices and other organizational bodies. This database provides the most detailed up to date picture of present water use and water prices across Europe. The use of homogeneous data allowed us to compare regions and analyze spatial patterns. We applied econometric methods to determine the main determinants of water demand and make a monetary valuation of water for both the domestic and industry sector. This monetary valuation is important to allow water allocation based on economic damage estimates. We also attempted to estimate how population growth, as well as socio-economic and climatic changes impact future water demand up to 2050 using a homogeneous method for all countries. European projections for the identified major drivers of water demand were used to simulate future conditions. Subsequently, water demand functions were applied to estimate future water use and potential economic damage caused by water shortages. We present our results while also providing some estimation of the uncertainty of our predictions.

The threat from sea and land. Regional report 2: the Bay of Bengal.

PubMed

1994-01-01

This article reports on the environmental threat caused by the Bay of Bengal on the economic situation in Bangladesh and India. More than four-fifths of Bangladesh amount to an extended delta at the confluence of one of the largest river systems in the world, comprising the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna. In the Brahmaputra watershed, the rate of deforestation caused soil erosion in the Himalayas is five times as much as in the geological past. This sediment loading is often considered to be a prime factor in downstream flooding. Because of this, Bangladesh agriculture products were damaged, which led to economic instability. Furthermore, as a result of the combined impacts of population growth, poverty, no land, and inadequate food supplies, many migrated into the neighboring Indian areas. Moreover, the susceptibility of the Bay of Bengal to cyclones has caused a great number of deaths leaving millions of people homeless. Cyclone episodes are expected to be more frequent as global warming continues. Furthermore, Bangladesh was estimated to be only 5 meters above sea level, which is considered vulnerable to sea level rise. On top of these problems, trouble from the other side of Bangladesh was also predicted with the combined outflow of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna leading to more national damage.

Effects of acid deposition on terrestrial ecosystems and their rehabilitation strategies in China.

PubMed

Feng, Zong-wei; Miao, Hong; Zhang, Fu-zhu; Huang, Yi-zong

2002-04-01

South China has become the third largest region associated with acid deposition following Europe and North America, the area subject to damage by acid deposition increased from 1.75 million km2 in 1985 to 2.8 million km2 in 1993. Acid deposition has caused serious damage to ecosystem. Combined pollution of acid rain and SO2 showed the obvious multiple effects on crops. Vegetable was more sensitive to acid deposition than foodstuff crops. Annual economic loss of crops due to acid deposition damage in eleven provinces of south China was 4.26 billion RMB Yuan. Acid deposition caused serious damage to forest. Annual economic loss of wood volume was about 1.8 billion RMB Yuan and forest ecological benefit loss 16.2 billion in eleven provinces of south China. Acid deposition in south China was typical "sulfuric acid type". According to the thoughts of sustainable development, some strategies were brought forward as follows: (1) enhancing environmental management, specifying acid-controlling region, controlling and abating the total emission amount of SO2; (2) selecting practical energy technologies of clean coal, for example, cleansing and selecting coal, sulfur-fixed-type industrial briqutting, abating sulfur from waste gas and so on; (3) developing other energy sources to replace coal, including water electricity, atomic energy and the new energy such as solar energy, wind energy and so on; (4) in acid deposition region of south China, selecting acid-resistant type of crop and tree to decrease agricultural losses, planting more green fertilizer crops, using organic fertilizers and liming, in order to improve buffer capacities of soil.

Monetary Valuation of PM10-Related Health Risks in Beijing China: The Necessity for PM10 Pollution Indemnity

PubMed Central

Yin, Hao; Xu, Linyu; Cai, Yanpeng

2015-01-01

Severe health risks caused by PM10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm) pollution have induced inevitable economic losses and have rendered pressure on the sustainable development of society as a whole. In China, with the “Polluters Pay Principle”, polluters should pay for the pollution they have caused, but how much they should pay remains an intractable problem for policy makers. This paper integrated an epidemiological exposure-response model with economics methods, including the Amended Human Capital (AHC) approach and the Cost of Illness (COI) method, to value the economic loss of PM10-related health risks in 16 districts and also 4 functional zones in Beijing from 2008 to 2012. The results show that from 2008 to 2012 the estimated annual deaths caused by PM10 in Beijing are around 56,000, 58,000, 63,000, 61,000 and 59,000, respectively, while the economic losses related to health damage increased from around 23 to 31 billion dollars that PM10 polluters should pay for pollution victims between 2008 and 2012. It is illustrated that not only PM10 concentration but also many other social economic factors influence PM10-related health economic losses, which makes health economic losses show a time lag discrepancy compared with the decline of PM10 concentration. In conclusion, health economic loss evaluation is imperative in the pollution indemnity system establishment and should be considered for the urban planning and policy making to control the burgeoning PM10 health economic loss. PMID:26308020

Monetary Valuation of PM10-Related Health Risks in Beijing China: The Necessity for PM10 Pollution Indemnity.

PubMed

Yin, Hao; Xu, Linyu; Cai, Yanpeng

2015-08-21

Severe health risks caused by PM10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm) pollution have induced inevitable economic losses and have rendered pressure on the sustainable development of society as a whole. In China, with the "Polluters Pay Principle", polluters should pay for the pollution they have caused, but how much they should pay remains an intractable problem for policy makers. This paper integrated an epidemiological exposure-response model with economics methods, including the Amended Human Capital (AHC) approach and the Cost of Illness (COI) method, to value the economic loss of PM10-related health risks in 16 districts and also 4 functional zones in Beijing from 2008 to 2012. The results show that from 2008 to 2012 the estimated annual deaths caused by PM10 in Beijing are around 56,000, 58,000, 63,000, 61,000 and 59,000, respectively, while the economic losses related to health damage increased from around 23 to 31 billion dollars that PM10 polluters should pay for pollution victims between 2008 and 2012. It is illustrated that not only PM10 concentration but also many other social economic factors influence PM10-related health economic losses, which makes health economic losses show a time lag discrepancy compared with the decline of PM10 concentration. In conclusion, health economic loss evaluation is imperative in the pollution indemnity system establishment and should be considered for the urban planning and policy making to control the burgeoning PM10 health economic loss.

Acoustic detection of Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Coleoptera: Dryophthoridae) and Oryctes elegans (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) in Phoenix dactylifera (Arecales: Arecacae) trees and offshoots in Saudi Arabian orchards

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Dryophthoridae) larvae are cryptic, internal-tissue feeding pests of palm trees that are difficult to detect until after they have caused severe economic damage; consequently, infestations may remain undetected until they are widespread in an orchard....

Sequencing of an Anthracnose-resistant sorghum genotype and mapping of a major QTL reveal strong candidate genes for Anthracnose resistance

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Anthracnose, caused by the fungal pathogen Colletotrichum sublineolum Henn. ex. Sacc. and Trotter 1913, is an economically damaging disease of sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] in hot and humid production regions of the world. Control of anthracnose is almost exclusively through the use of genet...

USDA-ARS Knipling-Bushland U.S. Livestock Insects Research Laboratory Tick & Biting Fly Research Unit scientific update

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ticks and biting flies cause tremendous economic damage to the U.S. livestock industry while also being a health concern to humans. Research on their biology and control is done at the Knipling-Bushland U.S. Livestock Insects Research Laboratory, Tick and Biting Fly Research Unit with scientists loc...

Climate and very large wildland fires in the contiguous western USA

Treesearch

E. Natasha Stavros; John Abatzoglou; Narasimhan K. Larkin; Donald McKenzie; E. Ashley Steel

2014-01-01

Very large wildfires can cause significant economic and environmental damage, including destruction of homes, adverse air quality, firefighting costs and even loss of life. We examine how climate is associated with very large wildland fires (VLWFs >=50 000 acres, or ~20234 ha) in the western contiguous USA. We used composite records of climate and fire to...

Predicting the economic costs and property value losses attributed to sudden oak death damage in California (2010-2020)

Treesearch

Kent Kovacs; Tomas Václavík; Robert G. Haight; Arwin Pang; Nik J. Cunniffe; Christopher A. Gilligan; Ross K. Meentemeyer

2011-01-01

Phytophthora ramorum, cause of sudden oak death, is a quarantined, non-native, invasive forest pathogen resulting in substantial mortality in coastal live oak (Quercus agrifolia) and several other related tree species on the Pacific Coast of the United States. We estimate the discounted cost of oak treatment, removal, and...

The Politics of Invasive Weed Management: Gender, Race, and Risk Perception in Rural California

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Norgaard, Kari Marie

2007-01-01

"Biological invasions" are now recognized as the cause of significant ecological and economic damage. They also raise a series of less visible social issues. Management of invasive species is often a political process raising questions such as who decides which organisms are to be managed, and who benefits or is affected by different…

Will the 1990’s be a decade of increasingly destructive natural disasters?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boulle, P. L.

1990-01-01

Today, there is a considerable body of knowledge about natural hazards that laso enables us to devise effective means to limit the damage they cause. Yet, the reality of the situation is that disasters are increasing in number worldwide, and their social and economic impacts are becoming more nad more difficult to hear. 

Characterization of Microsatellite Loci in Smicronyx Sodidus, the Gray Sunflower Seed Weevil (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The gray sunflower seed weevil (GSSW) Smicronyx sordidus, native to North America, is one of the major seed pests of cultivated sunflowers in the Central and Northern Great Plains. The larvae of GSSW feed on the kernels of the sunflower seeds, and may cause severe damage to this economically importa...

Electricity's Future: The Shift to Efficiency and Small-Scale Power. Worldwatch Paper 61.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flavin, Christopher

Electricity, which has largely supplanted oil as the most controversial energy issue of the 1980s, is at the center of some of the world's bitterest economic and environmental controversies. Soaring costs, high interest rates, and environmental damage caused by large power plants have wreaked havoc on the once booming electricity industry.…

Description of a novel mild strain of Citrus tristeza virus in California that reacts with monoclonal antibody MCA13

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quick decline caused by Citrus tristeza virus (CTV) destroyed citrus on sour orange rootstock in southern California in the 1930’s -40’s. However, use of resistant/tolerant CTV rootstocks, certified pathogen-free budwood, and quarantines have limited further economic damage from CTV. Multi-locus mar...

Improvement of mass-rearing procedures for an olive fruit fly parasitoid – duration of exposure to hosts affects production of Psyttalia lounsburyi

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The olive fruit fly, Bactrocera oleae (Diptera: Tephritidae), causes severe economic damage in California. Control of this fly is currently limited to pesticides. The USDA-ARS European Biological Control Laboratory in Montpellier, France established a classical biological control program nearly 15 y...

Characterization of Xiphinema americanum group species (Nematoda: Dorylaimida) and co-evolution of bacteria from the genus ‘Candidatus Xiphinematobacter’ with these nematodes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Xiphinema americanum group contains over two-dozen different species of nematode. They are economically important because they vector nepoviruses, which cause damage to several crops. Taxonomic differentiation among species of the X. americanum complex is problematic because many of the species ...

[Research progress on fascioliasis].

PubMed

Liu, Qian; Cheng, Na; Zhou, Yan; Xu, Xue-Nian

2013-06-01

Fascioliasis is an important zoonosis caused by Fasciola spp. It can cause pathological damages to human liver and gallbladder, as well as economic loss in animal husbandry. Fascioliasis can be easily misdiagnosed with other hepatobiliary diseases. The appearance of resistance to triclabendazole is an issue problem for fascioliasis control. Therefore, research for better diagnostic methods, effective drugs and vaccines become to the focus of fascioliasis control. This article summarizes the progress on epidemiological status, diagnostic method, therapy, drug resistance, vaccine and omics of fascioliasis.

Biological research on fire in the West

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2005-01-01

Wildland fires are a natural feature of many ecosystems, including grasslands, forests, and shrublands. How-ever, years of fire exclusion have led to accumulations of dead fuels and increases in the density of fire-intolerant species. In most western states, recent fires burning in these altered ecosystems have caused significant damage and huge economic losses to homes, busi-nesses, and communities. They also have dis-turbed forests and rangelands as well as their associated watersheds, plants, and animals. Every western state is concerned about dam-age from such catastrophic fires, and there is strong interest from all sectors in prevent-ing and reducing the resulting damage in the future. There is also interest in the use of fire as a management tool for reducing hazards and restoring damaged ecosystems and for returning fire to its natural role in wilderness ecosystems.

[Economic damage caused by lowered prices in the agro-food sector in areas contaminated by radioactive materials leaked from the nuclear power plant severely damaged by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake--consideration from the viewpoints of epidemiology, economics and social psychology].

PubMed

Sugita, Minoru; Miyakawa, Michiko

2013-01-01

Large amounts of radioactive materials were leaked into the environment from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) of the Tokyo Electric Power Company, which was severely damaged by the 2011 Tohoku Region Pacific Coast Earthquake and accompanying tsunami. Economic damage due to lowered prices and supplies of food products produced in the areas contaminated by the radioactive materials leaked from the damaged FDNPP to the agro-food sector in the affected areas is notable. In Japanese, this is known as fuhyo higai. In this study, we investigated fuhyo higai from the viewpoints of epidemiology, economics, and social psychology in an effort to seek solutions. Information was obtained from articles in print and on the Internet. Fuhyo higai, or economic damage of the agro-food sector, which is the main industry in the contaminated areas, is serious because it is difficult to reassure the general population regarding food safety. This fuhyo higai does not derive solely from rumor. It has been reported that improving the science literacy of the general population is important as a countermeasure against fuhyo higai, but this may not be effective because of the human social structure and behavior of people who seek subjective safety. Almost all radiological laboratory results of samples of food produced in the contaminated areas were below detectable limits. Very high values were rarely detected. In general, information about the dose-response relationship is obtained under the assumption that there may be error in the response but not in the dose. The rare cases of extremely high radiological values of food samples from the contaminated areas may correspond to large errors in dose. However, it is difficult to deny a high-dose risk. The reported information on the dose-response relationship obtained under the assumption that there is no error in dose is not sufficient. Thus, response, i.e., health risk, cannot be correctly estimated. This leads the general population to choose food products from areas far from the FDNPP over those from the contaminated areas. In order to resolve this problem, thorough decontamination of radioactive areas, including large forests, is necessary for the market to regain competitiveness to the level it was before the accident. The cost of such decontamination is enormous and requires much labor. Decontamination will create employment and is indispensable in restoring the deteriorated economic conditions of the affected areas.

Damage cost of the Dan River coal ash spill.

PubMed

Dennis Lemly, A

2015-02-01

The recent coal ash spill on the Dan River in North Carolina, USA has caused several negative effects on the environment and the public. In this analysis, I report a monetized value for these effects after the first 6 months following the spill. The combined cost of ecological damage, recreational impacts, effects on human health and consumptive use, and esthetic value losses totals $295,485,000. Because the environmental impact and associated economic costs of riverine coal ash spills can be long-term, on the order of years or even decades, this 6-month assessment should be viewed as a short-term preview. The total cumulative damage cost from the Dan River coal ash spill could go much higher. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Post flood damage data collection and assessment in Albania based on DesInventar methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toto, Emanuela; Massabo, Marco; Deda, Miranda; Rossello, Laura

2015-04-01

In 2013 in Albania was implemented a collection of disaster losses based on Desinventar. The DesInventar system consists in a methodology and software tool that lead to the systematic collection, documentation and analysis of loss data on disasters. The main sources of information about disasters used for the Albanian database were the Albanian Ministry of Internal Affairs, the National Library and the State archive. Specifically for floods the database created contains nearly 900 datasets, for a period of 148 years (from 1865 to 2013). The data are georeferenced on the administrative units of Albania: Region, Provinces and Municipalities. The datasets describe the events by reporting the date of occurrence, the duration, the localization in administrative units and the cause. Additional information regards the effects and damage that the event caused on people (deaths, injured, missing, affected, relocated, evacuated, victims) and on houses (houses damaged or destroyed). Other quantitative indicators are the losses in local currency or US dollars, the damage on roads, the crops affected , the lost cattle and the involvement of social elements over the territory such as education and health centers. Qualitative indicators simply register the sectors (e.g. transportations, communications, relief, agriculture, water supply, sewerage, power and energy, industries, education, health sector, other sectors) that were affected. Through the queries and analysis of the data collected it was possible to identify the most affected areas, the economic loss, the damage in agriculture, the houses and people affected and many other variables. The most vulnerable Regions for the past floods in Albania were studied and individuated, as well as the rivers that cause more damage in the country. Other analysis help to estimate the damage and losses during the main flood events of the recent years, occurred in 2010 and 2011, and to recognize the most affected sectors. The database was used to find the most frequent drivers that cause floods and to identify the areas with a higher priority for intervention and the areas with a higher economic loss. In future the loss and damage database could address interventions for risk mitigation and decision making processes. Using the database is also possible to build Empirical Loss Exceedance Curves, that permit to find the average number of times for year that a certain level of loss happened. The users of the database information can be researchers, students, citizens and policy makers. The operators of the National Operative Center for Civil Emergencies (Albanian Ministry of Internal Affairs) use the database daily to insert new data. Nowadays in Albania there isn't an entity in charge for the registration of damage and consequences of floods in a systematic and organized way. In this sense, the database DesInventar provides a basis for the future and helps to identify priorities to create a national database.

Characterizing Damage of Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in Blueberries.

PubMed

Wiman, Nik G; Parker, Joyce E; Rodriguez-Saona, Cesar; Walton, Vaughn M

2015-06-01

Brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is a severe economic pest of growing importance in the United States, Canada, and Europe. While feeding damage from H. halys has been characterized in tree fruit, vegetables, and agronomic crops, less is known about the impacts of stink bugs on small fruits such as blueberries. In this study, we examined H. halys feeding on two representative early and late ripening blueberry cultivars in Oregon and New Jersey. This research examined how different densities of H. halys confined on blueberry clusters for week-long periods affected fruit quality at harvest. After fruit were ripe, we stained and quantified the number of salivary sheaths on berries as an indication of feeding pressure. Feeding by H. halys damaged the fruits by causing increased levels of external discoloration, and internal damage in the form of tissue necrosis. Exposure of berries to H. halys was also associated with decreasing berry weights and lower soluble solids in fruits. However, the different cultivars did not respond consistently to feeding pressure from H. halys. Weekly variability in feeding pressure of two of the cultivars as quantified by the number of stylet sheaths per berry was largely accounted for by environmental variables. We conclude that H. halys does have potential to severely damage blueberries and may become an important economic pest. Characterization of damage is important because correct identification of insect damage is key for successful management. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Sinking Coastal Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erkens, G.; Stuurman, R.; De Lange, G.; Bucx, T.; Lambert, J.

2014-12-01

In many coastal cities land subsidence now exceeds absolute sea level rise up to a factor of ten. Without action, parts of Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Bangkok and numerous other coastal cities will continue to sink, even below sea level. The ever increasing industrial and domestic demand for water in these cities results in excessive groundwater extraction, causing severe subsidence. In addition, coastal cities are often faced with larger natural subsidence, as they are built on thick sequences of soft soil. The impacts of subsidence are further exacerbated by climate-induced sea level rise. Land subsidence results in two types damage: foremost it increases flood vulnerability (frequency, inundation depth and duration of floods), with floods causing major economic damage and loss of lives. Secondly, differential land movement causes significant economic losses in the form of structural damage and high maintenance costs of roads and transportation networks, sewage systems, buildings and foundations. The total damage worldwide is estimated at billions of dollars annually. To survey the extent of groundwater associated subsidence, we conducted a quick-assessment of subsidence in a series of mega-cities (Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Dhaka, New Orleans and Bangkok). For each city research questions included: what are the main causes, how much is the current subsidence rate and what are predictions, where are the vulnerable areas, what are the impacts and risks, how can adverse impacts can be mitigated or compensated for, and what governmental bodies are involved and responsible to act? Using the assessment, this paper discusses subsidence modelling and measurement results from the selected cities. The focus is on the importance of delayed settlement after increases in hydraulic heads, the role of the subsurface composition for subsidence rates and best practice solutions for subsiding cities. For the latter, urban (ground)water management, adaptive flood risk management and related spatial planning strategies are just examples of the options available. The discussions in this paper form the building blocks for a much-needed research agenda that aims to deliver a strategy to deal with subsidence in current and future subsidence-prone areas.

Forest health in a changing world: Effects of globalization and climate change on forest insect and pathogen impacts

Treesearch

T. D. Ramsfield; Barbara Bentz; M. Faccoli; H. Jactel; E. G. Brockerhoff

2016-01-01

Forests and trees throughout the world are increasingly affected by factors related to global change. Expanding international trade has facilitated invasions of numerous insects and pathogens into new regions. Many of these invasions have caused substantial forest damage, economic impacts and losses of ecosystem goods and services provided by trees. Climate...

Warble? What’s a Warble? A recap of the human bot fly, Dermatobia hominis (L. Jr. 1781)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The human bot fly, Dermatobia hominis (Linnaeus Jr., 1781) is a major pest of livestock in Mexico, Central and South America. Myiasis caused by the larvae result in economic losses due to hide damage and reductions in weight gain and milk production. They have a broad host range which includes wildl...

Design Guide for Improving School Safety in Earthquakes, Floods, and High Winds. Risk Management Series. FEMA 424

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arnold, Christopher; Lyons, Jack; Munger, James; Quinn, Rebecca C.; Smith, Thomas L.

2004-01-01

This manual is intended to provide guidance for the protection of school buildings and their occupants from natural disasters, and the economic losses and social disruption caused by building damage and destruction. This volume concentrates on grade schools, K-12. This publication covers earthquakes, floods, and high winds. Its intended audience…

Natural biological control of Halyomorpha halys (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) by native egg parasitoids – a multi-year survey in northern Delaware

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Halyomorpha halys (Stål), the brown marmorated stink bug, is a highly polyphagous plant pest native to eastern Asia. Since its accidental introduction to the eastern USA in the mid-1990s, it has spread across North America and caused serious economic and ecological damages. Chemical control has been...

Analysis of predatory behaviors of the soldier bug, Podisus maculiventris towards the kudzu bug, Megacopta cribraria and genetic profile of M. cribraria in the Southern US

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Megacopta cribraria is a serious agricultural pest that causes damage to numerous economical important crops such as soybean, lablab bean, and vetch. Megacopta cribraria is a newly introduced invasive pest species that has a few predators and parasitoids that control it in nature. Podisus maculivent...

Mapping of the Asian longhorned beetle's time to maturity and risk to invasion at contiguous United States extent

Treesearch

Alexander P. Kappel; R. Talbot Trotter; Melody A. Keena; John Rogan; Christopher A. Williams

2017-01-01

Anoplophora glabripennis, the Asian Longhorned Beetle (ALB), is an invasive species of high economic and ecological relevance given the potential it has to cause tree damage, and sometimes mortality, in the United States. Because this pest is introduced by transport in wood-packing products from Asia, ongoing trade activities pose continuous risk...

Large-Scale Assessment of Invasiveness and Potential for Ecological Impact by Nonnative Tree Species.

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter; William D. Smith

2012-01-01

Biological invasions represent one of the most significant environmental threats to the maintenance of natural forest ecosystems in North America and elsewhere (Liebhold and others 1995), and have been estimated to cause more than $100 billion annually in damage and control costs (Pimentel and others 2000). However, these costs do not take into account the economic...

Intelligence Community Spending: Trends and Issues

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-08

who provide financial and economic expertise. Financial intelligence analysts focus on terrorist financing, counterfeiting, money laundering , funds...but also agreed that disclosure of numbers below the topline could cause damage to national security. It recommended that the amount of money spent...associated with intelligence spending. How Much is Enough? America’s intelligence agencies may spend more money on gathering and disseminating intelligence

Management adaptation to fires in the wildland-urban risk areas in Spain

Treesearch

Gema Herrero-Corral

2013-01-01

Forest fires not only cause damage to ecosystems but also result in major socio-economic losses and in the worst cases loss of human life. Specifically, the incidence of fires in the overlapping areas between building structures and forest vegetation (wildland-urban interface, WUI) generates highly-complex emergencies due to the presence of people and goods....

Development of the Damage Potential resulting from Avalanche Risks, Case Study Galtür (Tyrol, Austria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keiler, M.

2003-04-01

Reports on catastrophes with high damage caused by natural hazards seem to have increased in number recently. A new trend in dealing with these natural processes leads to the integration of risk into natural hazards evaluations and approaches of integral risk management. The risk resulting from natural hazards can be derived from the combination of parameters of physical processes (intensity and recurrence probability) and damage potential (probability of presence and expected damage value). Natural hazard research focuses mainly on the examination, modelling and estimation of individual geomorphological processes as well as on future developments caused by climate change. Even though damage potential has been taken into account more frequently, quantifying statements are still missing. Due to the changes of the socio-economic structures in mountain regions (urban sprawl, population growth, increased mobility and tourism) these studies are mandatory. This study presents a conceptual method that records the damage potential (probability of physical presence, evaluation of buildings) and shows the development of the damage potential resulting from avalanches since 1950. The study area is the community of Galtür, Austria. 36 percent of the existing buildings are found in officially declared avalanche hazard zones. The majority of these buildings are either agricultural or accommodation facilities. Additionally, the effects of physical planning and/or technical measures on the spatial development of the potential damage are illustrated. The results serve to improve risk determination and point out an unnoticed increase of damage potential and risk in apparently safe settlement areas.

THE EMERGENCE OF ARTHROPOD-BORNE VIRAL DISEASES: A GLOBAL PROSPECTIVE ON DENGUE, CHIKUNGUNYA AND ZIKA FEVERS

PubMed Central

Mayer, Sandra V.; Tesh, Robert B.; Vasilakis, Nikos

2016-01-01

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) present a substantial threat to human and animal health worldwide. Arboviruses can cause a variety of clinical presentations that range from mild to life threatening symptoms. Many arboviruses are present in nature through two distinct cycles, the urban and sylvatic cycle that are maintained in complex biological cycles. In this review we briefly discuss the factors driving the emergence of arboviruses, such as the anthropogenic aspects of unrestrained human population growth, economic expansion and globalization. Also the important aspects of viruses and vectors in the occurrence of arboviruses epidemics. The focus of this review will be on dengue, zika and chikungunya viruses, particularly because these viruses are currently causing a negative impact on public health and economic damage around the world. PMID:27876643

Civil protection and Damaging Hydrogeological Events: comparative analysis of the 2000 and 2015 events in Calabria (southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrucci, Olga; Caloiero, Tommaso; Aurora Pasqua, Angela; Perrotta, Piero; Russo, Luigi; Tansi, Carlo

2017-11-01

Calabria (southern Italy) is a flood prone region, due to both its rough orography and fast hydrologic response of most watersheds. During the rainy season, intense rain affects the region, triggering floods and mass movements that cause economic damage and fatalities. This work presents a methodological approach to perform the comparative analysis of two events affecting the same area at a distance of 15 years, by collecting all the qualitative and quantitative features useful to describe both rain and damage. The aim is to understand if similar meteorological events affecting the same area can have different outcomes in terms of damage. The first event occurred between 8 and 10 September 2000, damaged 109 out of 409 municipalities of the region and killed 13 people in a campsite due to a flood. The second event, which occurred between 30 October and 1 November 2015, damaged 79 municipalities, and killed a man due to a flood. The comparative analysis highlights that, despite the exceptionality of triggering daily rain was higher in the 2015 event, the damage caused by the 2000 event to both infrastructures and belongings was higher, and it was strongly increased due to the 13 flood victims. We concluded that, in the 2015 event, the management of pre-event phases, with the issuing of meteorological alert, and the emergency management, with the preventive evacuation of people in hazardous situations due to landslides or floods, contributed to reduce the number of victims.

Convective Radio Occultations Final Campaign Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Biondi, R.

2016-03-01

Deep convective systems are destructive weather phenomena that annually cause many deaths and injuries as well as much damage, thereby accounting for major economic losses in several countries. The number and intensity of such phenomena have increased over the last decades in some areas of the globe. Damage is mostly caused by strong winds and heavy rain parameters that are strongly connected to the structure of the particular storm. Convection over land is usually stronger and deeper than over the ocean and some convective systems, known as supercells, also develop tornadoes through processes that remain mostly unclear. The intensity forecastmore » and monitoring of convective systems is one of the major challenges for meteorology because in situ measurements during extreme events are too sparse or unreliable and most ongoing satellite missions do not provide suitable time/space coverage.« less

A case study for natural cascading hazard: the Great Blizzard of 1888 in the Asturian Massif (Northern Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Hernandez, Cristina; Ruiz-Fernández, Jesús; Gallinar, David

2015-04-01

In this paper we study the events triggered by the Great Blizzard of 1888 in the Asturian Massif as a case study that shows how one hazard can be the main cause of another hazard occurring. The reconstruction of the chain of hazards triggered by the episode has been done on the basis of nivo-meteorogical conditions, event geographical location, and socio-economic impact. The episode has been studied through the analysis of the issues published in six different newspapers between the 20th of January and 30th of May 1888. We have collected the data of the ancient meteorological station of the University of Oviedo, and those contained in parish documents. Field work consisted in visual inspection and interviews to the contemporary residents. The information has been stored and crossed for statistical analysis using a logical database structure that has been designed with this purpose. The snowfall episode consisted in four consecutive snowstorms that occurred between the 14th of February 1888 and the 8th of April 1888, creating snow covers with an average depth ranging between 5 and 7 m. The snow accumulations were the main cause of material damage, affecting 27 high- and mid-elevation mountain municipalities. However, we have to consider that the newspapers only reflected those events affecting densely populated areas along with those which affected vital economic spaces (railway lines, roads in mountain passes, etc.). There were more than 200 interruptions with the traffic flow and communication outages, hampering economic activities. Snow built up on the roofs added extra weight to the structure of the buildings so more than 900 constructions collapsed, killing three persons and causing the loss of more than 19.000 head of cattle. Moreover, these snow accumulations were the basis of an episode of sixty-four snow avalanches that, undoubtedly, meant the main personal damage with a number of dead and wounded that reached 29 and 23 respectively. During the snowfall breaks, snow-melting processes became important: the river rising affected all the main hydrological basins, 29 news related to material damage were documented and three people died drowned. In addition, snow avalanches caused fast damming followed of violent river risings in at least two cases, causing even worse damages because of the surprise effect. Finally, we have to consider the connection that can be made between the melting process and thirty-six mass movements that were documented, destroying six buildings, causing the death of one person and dozens of interruptions in communications: the increase in such events is clearly associated with the temperature rising and, at the same time, its decline can be observed with the temperature dropping. These events took place mainly during the second snowfall break, so we must take into account the cumulative effect on the water saturation of the surface formations.

The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goes, M.; Keller, K.; Tuana, N.

2009-04-01

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth's climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for the deployment of a different approach: to geoengineer climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically suggest that substituting aerosol geoengineering for abatement of carbon dioxide emissions results in large net monetary benefits. However, these studies neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) the potential for future geoengineering failures and (ii) the negative impacts associated with the aerosol forcing. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcing. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes severe caveats on the interpretation of the results. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on the question of intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of endogenous learning about the climate system. We show that the risks associated with a future geoengineering failure and negative impacts of aerosol forcings can cause geoenginering strategies to fail an economic cost-benefit test. One key to this finding is that a geoengineering failure would lead to dramatic and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to this failure can dominate the cost-benefit analysis because the monetary damages of climate change are expected to increase with the rate of change. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emission abatement might fail not only an economic cost-benefit test but also an ethical test of distributional justice. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emissions abatements constitutes a conscious risk transfer to future generations. Intergenerational justice demands distributional justice, namely that present generations may not create benefits for themselves in exchange for burdens on future generations. We use the economic model to quantify this risk transfer to better inform the judgment of whether substituting aerosol geoengineering for carbon dioxide emission abatement fails this ethical test.

Effect of temperature and tree species on damage progression caused by whitespotted sawyer (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) larvae in recently burned logs.

PubMed

Bélanger, Sébastien; Bauce, Eric; Berthiaume, Richard; Long, Bernard; Labrie, Jacques; Daigle, Louis-Frédéric; Hébert, Christian

2013-06-01

The whitespotted sawyer, Monochamus scutellatus scutellatus (Say) (Coleoptera: Ce-rambycidae), is one of the most damaging wood-boring insects in recently burned boreal forests of North America. In Canada, salvage logging after wildfire contributes to maintaining the timber volume required by the forest industry, but larvae of this insect cause significant damage that reduces the economic value of lumber products. This study aimed to estimate damage progression as a function of temperature in recently burned black spruce (Picea mariana (Miller) Britton, Sterns, and Poggenburg) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lambert) trees. Using axial tomographic technology, we modeled subcortical development and gallery depth progression rates as functions of temperature for both tree species. Generally, these rates were slightly faster in black spruce than in jack pine logs. Eggs laid on logs kept at 12 degrees C did not hatch or larvae were unable to establish themselves under the bark because no larval development was observed. At 16 degrees C, larvae stayed under the bark for > 200 d before penetrating into the sapwood. At 20 degrees C, half of the larvae entered the sapwood after 30-50 d, but gallery depth progression stopped for approximately 70 d, suggesting that larvae went into diapause. The other half of the larvae entered the sapwood only after 100-200 d. At 24 and 28 degrees C, larvae entered the sapwood after 26-27 and 21 d, respectively. At 28 degrees C, gallery depth progressed at a rate of 1.44 mm/d. Temperature threshold for subcortical development was slightly lower in black spruce (12.9 degrees C) than in jack pine (14.6 degrees C) and it was 1 degrees C warmer for gallery depth progression for both tree species. These results indicate that significant damage may occur within a few months after fire during warm summers, particularly in black spruce, which highlights the importance of beginning postfire salvage logging as soon as possible to reduce economic losses.

Potential economic impact of introduction and spread of the red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta, in Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutrich, J.J.; VanGelder, E.; Loope, L.

2007-01-01

Globally, many invasive alien species have caused extensive ecological and economic damage from either accidental or intentional introduction. The red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta, has created billions of dollars in costs annually, spreading as an invasive species across the southern United States. In 1998, the red imported fire ant spread into California creating a highly probable future introduction via shipped products to Hawaii. This paper presents the estimation of potential economic impacts of the red imported fire ant (RIFA) to the state of Hawaii. Evaluation of impacts focuses on the economic sectors of (1) households, (2) agriculture (cattle and crop production), (3) infrastructure (cemeteries, churches, cities, electrical, telephone, and cable services, highways, hospitals and schools), (4) recreation, tourism and business (hotels/resort areas, golf courses, commercial businesses and tourists), and (5) government expenditures (with minimal intervention). The full annual economic costs of the red imported fire ant to Hawaii are estimated (in US$ 2006) to be $211 million/year, comprised of $77 million in damages and expenditures and $134 million in foregone outdoor opportunities to households and tourists. The present value of the projected costs of RIFA over a 20-year period after introduction total $2.5 billion. RIFA invasions across the globe indicate that economic cost-effective action in Hawaii entails implementation of prevention, early detection and rapid response treatment programs for RIFA. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scalable Algorithms for Global Scale Remote Sensing Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vatsavai, R. R.; Bhaduri, B. L.; Singh, N.

2015-12-01

Recent decade has witnessed major changes on the Earth, for example, deforestation, varying cropping and human settlement patterns, and crippling damages due to disasters. Accurate damage assessment caused by major natural and anthropogenic disasters is becoming critical due to increases in human and economic loss. This increase in loss of life and severe damages can be attributed to the growing population, as well as human migration to the disaster prone regions of the world. Rapid assessment of these changes and dissemination of accurate information is critical for creating an effective emergency response. Change detection using high-resolution satellite images is a primary tool in assessing damages, monitoring biomass and critical infrastructures, and identifying new settlements. Existing change detection methods suffer from registration errors and often based on pixel (location) wise comparison of spectral observations from single sensor. In this paper we present a novel probabilistic change detection framework based on patch comparison and a GPU implementation that supports near real-time rapid damage exploration capability.

Design and analysis of FBG based sensor for detection of damage in oil and gas pipelines for safety of marine life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedi, Amna; Kothari, Vaishali; Kumar, Santosh

2018-02-01

The under laid gas and oil pipelines on the seafloor are prone to various disturbances like seismic movements of the sea bed, oceanic currents, tsunamis. These factors tend to damage such pipelines connecting different locations of the world dependent on these pipelines for their day-to-day use of oil and natural gas. If damaged, the oil spills in the water bodies cause grave loss to marine life along with serious economic issues. It is not feasible to monitor the undersea pipelines manually because of the huge seafloor depth. For timely detection of such damage, a new technique using optical Fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors and its installation has been given in this work. The idea of an FBG sensor for detecting damage in pipeline structure based on the acoustic emission has been worked out. The numerical calculation has been done based on the fundamental of strain measurement and the output has been simulated using MATLAB.

The effects of global climate change on Southeast Asia: A survey of likely impacts and problems of adaptation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Njoto, Sukrisno; Howe, Charles W.

1991-01-01

Study results indicate the likelihood of significant net damages from climate change, in particular damages from sea-level rise and higher temperatures that seem unlikely to be offset by favorable shifts in precipitation and carbon dioxide. Also indicated was the importance of better climate models, in particular models that can calculate climate change on a regional scale appropriate to policy-making. In spite of this potential for damage, there seems to be a low level of awareness and concern, probably caused by the higher priority given to economic growth and reinforced by the great uncertainty in the forecasts. The common property nature of global environment systems also leads to a feeling of helplessness on the part of country governments.

Catastrophic nanosecond laser induced damage in the bulk of potassium titanyl phosphate crystals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wagner, Frank R., E-mail: frank.wagner@fresnel.fr; Natoli, Jean-Yves; Akhouayri, Hassan

2014-06-28

Due to its high effective nonlinearity and the possibility to produce periodically poled crystals, potassium titanyl phosphate (KTiOPO{sub 4}, KTP) is still one of the economically important nonlinear optical materials. In this overview article, we present a large study on catastrophic nanosecond laser induced damage in this material and the very similar RbTiOPO{sub 4} (RTP). Several different systematic studies are included: multiple pulse laser damage, multi-wavelength laser damage in KTP, damage resistance anisotropy, and variations of the laser damage thresholds for RTP crystals of different qualities. All measurements were carried out in comparable experimental conditions using a 1064 nm Q-switched lasermore » and some were repeated at 532 nm. After summarizing the experimental results, we detail the proposed model for laser damage in this material and discuss the experimental results in this context. According to the model, nanosecond laser damage is caused by light-induced generation of transient laser-damage precursors which subsequently provide free electrons that are heated by the same nanosecond pulse. We also present a stimulated Raman scattering measurement and confront slightly different models to the experimental data. Finally, the physical nature of the transient damage precursors is discussed and similarities and differences to laser damage in other crystals are pointed out.« less

Worldwide Emerging Environmental Issues Affecting the U.S. Military. February 2008 Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-02-01

lost, and economic and environmental damages should be addressed. Mangroves ’ destruction could cause biodiversity loss in tropical areas , increase... Environmental Science & Technology Online is a comprehensive overview of the current state of nanotechnology risk assessment , emphasizing the paucity of...search and rescue robots. These recommendations apply equally well to the handling of robotic devices for environmental assessment and cleanup

Plant growth stage-specific injury and economic injury level for verde plant bug, Creontiades signatus (Hemiptera: Miridae), on cotton: Effect of bloom period of infestation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The verde plant bug, Creontiades signatus Distant (Hemiptera: Miridae), has emerged as a threat to cotton in South Texas, causing boll damage similar to boll-feeding stink bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae). Verde plant bugs were released into caged cotton for a one-week period to characterize the effec...

Economic analysis of prescribed burning for wildfire management in Western Australia

Treesearch

Veronique Florec; David Pannell; Michael Burton; Joel Kelso; Drew Mellor; George Milne

2013-01-01

Wildfires can cause significant damage to ecosystems, life and property, and wildfire events that do not involve people and property are becoming rare. With the expansion of the rural– urban interface in Western Australia and elsewhere, objectives of life and property protection become more difficult to achieve. We applied the cost plus net value change (C+NVC) model...

Assessment of the ripple effects and spatial heterogeneity of total losses in the capital of China after a great catastrophic shock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhengtao; Li, Ning; Xie, Wei; Liu, Yu; Feng, Jieling; Chen, Xi; Liu, Li

2017-03-01

The total losses caused by natural disasters have spatial heterogeneity due to the different economic development levels inside the disaster-hit areas. This paper uses scenarios of direct economic loss to introduce the sectors' losses caused by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (2008 WCE) in Beijing, utilizing the Adaptive Regional Input-Output (ARIO) model and the Inter-regional ripple effect (IRRE) model. The purpose is to assess the ripple effects of indirect economic loss and spatial heterogeneity of both direct and indirect economic loss at the scale of the smallest administrative divisions of China (streets, villages, and towns). The results indicate that the district of Beijing with the most severe indirect economic loss is the Chaoyang District; the finance and insurance industry (15, see Table 1) of Chaowai Street suffers the most in the Chaoyang District, which is 1.46 times that of its direct economic loss. During 2008-2014, the average annual GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate of Beijing was decreased 3.63 % by the catastrophe. Compared with the 8 % of GDP growth rate target, the decreasing GDP growth rate is a significant and noticeable economic impact, and it can be efficiently mitigated by increasing rescue effort and by supporting the industries which are located in the seriously damaged regions.

Estimating Damage Cost of Net Primary Production due to Climate Change and Ozone(O3) Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Park, C.; Sung, S.; Kim, H. G.; Mo, Y.; Kim, S.; Kil, S.

2016-12-01

Forests are absorbing and storing carbon dioxide (CO2) through photosynthesis. The forests are not only preventing global warming but also influencing temperature, precipitation and humidity (Costanza et al., 1997; de Groot et al., 2002). Also the forests are recognized as a carbon sink internationally (van Kooten, 2009). The Korean Government supports the economic activity such as carbon offset projects in accordance with 'ACT ON THE MANAGEMENT AND IMPROVEMENT OF CARBON SINK' Article27 (Korea Forest Service, 2013) and aims to make a policy which improves the CO2 capacity of forest for Paris Agreement discussed in UNFCCC COP21, December 2015 (Korea Forest Service, 2015). However, the social-economic activities make to increase aerosols as well as greenhouse gases significantly since the industrial revolution, as a result, the chemical composition of the atmosphere has changed significantly. According to the resent studies, not only CO2 but atmospheric chemistries such as ozone (O3), aerosol and black carbon can be an important factor causing climate change (Hansen et al., 2007; IPCC, 2007). In the past, acid rain affected on forest, but in these days, O3, nitrogen oxide (NOX) and sulfur oxide (SOX) are the most threatening factors on forest ecosystem (Lee et al, 2011). In particular, O3accounts for most of the photochemical products and causes a direct significant impact or damage on the plant because of high toxicity (Han et al., 2006). The research questions of this study are "How does O3 effects on forest productivity in the present and future? " What is the damage cost by the O3 effect in the future? In this study, we developed a statistical model using the parameters which effect on the forest productivity. We estimated the forest productivity using on the derived model in the present and future on a SSP scenarios. Lastly, we evaluated the economic effect or damage cost of O3effect by introducing the concept of climate insurance. The average forest productivity, net primary productivity (NPP), in Korea is about 622 gC/m2/yr in the results. And the result shows that NPP decreases about 2.3% by O3 negative effect. The NPP in the future also decreases about 1-2% and the negative effect of O3 is similar. Finally, damage cost by O3 in the future is bigger than damage by climate change.

Flood Risk Due to Hurricane Flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olivera, Francisco; Hsu, Chih-Hung; Irish, Jennifer

2015-04-01

In this study, we evaluated the expected economic losses caused by hurricane inundation. We used surge response functions, which are physics-based dimensionless scaling laws that give surge elevation as a function of the hurricane's parameters (i.e., central pressure, radius, forward speed, approach angle and landfall location) at specified locations along the coast. These locations were close enough to avoid significant changes in surge elevations between consecutive points, and distant enough to minimize calculations. The probability of occurrence of a surge elevation value at a given location was estimated using a joint probability distribution of the hurricane parameters. The surge elevation, at the shoreline, was assumed to project horizontally inland within a polygon of influence. Individual parcel damage was calculated based on flood water depth and damage vs. depth curves available for different building types from the HAZUS computer application developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Parcel data, including property value and building type, were obtained from the county appraisal district offices. The expected economic losses were calculated as the sum of the products of the estimated parcel damages and their probability of occurrence for the different storms considered. Anticipated changes for future climate scenarios were considered by accounting for projected hurricane intensification, as indicated by sea surface temperature rise, and sea level rise, which modify the probability distribution of hurricane central pressure and change the baseline of the damage calculation, respectively. Maps of expected economic losses have been developed for Corpus Christi in Texas, Gulfport in Mississippi and Panama City in Florida. Specifically, for Port Aransas, in the Corpus Christi area, it was found that the expected economic losses were in the range of 1% to 4% of the property value for current climate conditions, of 1% to 8% for the 2030's and of 1% to 14% for the 2080's.

From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, M.; Damm, B.

2014-12-01

The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their impact on public budgets is a further component of this approach. In integrated risk assessment, combination of methods plays an important role, with the objective of collecting and integrating complex data sets on landslide risk.

Sinking coastal cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erkens, Gilles; Bucx, Tom; Dam, Rien; De Lange, Ger; Lambert, John

2014-05-01

In many coastal and delta cities land subsidence now exceeds absolute sea level rise up to a factor of ten. Without action, parts of Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Bangkok and numerous other coastal cities will sink below sea level. Land subsidence increases flood vulnerability (frequency, inundation depth and duration of floods), with floods causing major economic damage and loss of lives. In addition, differential land movement causes significant economic losses in the form of structural damage and high maintenance costs. This effects roads and transportation networks, hydraulic infrastructure - such as river embankments, sluice gates, flood barriers and pumping stations -, sewage systems, buildings and foundations. The total damage worldwide is estimated at billions of dollars annually. Excessive groundwater extraction after rapid urbanization and population growth is the main cause of severe land subsidence. In addition, coastal cities are often faced with larger natural subsidence, as they are built on thick sequences of soft soil. Because of ongoing urbanization and population growth in delta areas, in particular in coastal megacities, there is, and will be, more economic development in subsidence-prone areas. The impacts of subsidence are further exacerbated by extreme weather events (short term) and rising sea levels (long term).Consequently, detrimental impacts will increase in the near future, making it necessary to address subsidence related problems now. Subsidence is an issue that involves many policy fields, complex technical aspects and governance embedment. There is a need for an integrated approach in order to manage subsidence and to develop appropriate strategies and measures that are effective and efficient on both the short and long term. Urban (ground)water management, adaptive flood risk management and related spatial planning strategies are just examples of the options available. A major rethink is needed to deal with the 'hidden' but urgent threat of subsidence. As subsidence is spatially different and can be caused by multi processes, an assessment of subsidence in delta cities needs to answer questions such as: what are the main causes, how much is the current subsidence rate and what are future scenarios (and interaction with other major environmental issues), where are the vulnerable areas, what are the impacts and risks, how can adverse impacts can be mitigated or compensated for, and who is involved and responsible to act? In this study a quick-assessment of subsidence is performed on the following mega-cities: Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Dhaka, New Orleans and Bangkok. Results of these case studies will be presented and compared, and a (generic) approach how to deal with subsidence in current and future subsidence-prone areas is provided.

PHYSICAL AND ECONOMIC DAMAGE FUNCTIONS FOR AIR POLLUTANTS BY RECEPTOR

EPA Science Inventory

This study is primarily concerned with evaluating regional economic damages to human health, material, and vegetation and of property soiling resulting from air pollution. This study represents a step forward in methodological development of air pollution damage estimation. It at...

Lessons Learned from Southeast Asian Floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osti, R.; Tanaka, S.

2009-04-01

At certain scales, flood has always been the lifeline of many people from Southeast Asian countries. People are traditionally accustomed to living with such floods and their livelihood is adjusted accordingly to optimize the benefits from the floods. However, large scale flood occasionally turns into the disaster and causes massive destruction not only in terms of human causalities but also damage to economic, ecological and social harmonies in the region. Although economic growth is prevailing in a relative term, the capacity of people to cope with such extreme events is weakening therefore the flood disaster risk is increasing in time. Recent examples of flood disaster in the region clearly show the increasing severity of disaster impact. This study reveals that there are many factors, which directly or indirectly influence the change. This paper considers the most prominent natural and socio-economic factors and analyzes their trend with respect to flood disasters in each country's context. A regional scale comparative analysis further helps to exchange the know how and to determine what kind of strategy and policy are lacking to manage the floods in a long run. It is also helpful in identifying the critical sectors that should be addressed first to mitigate the potential damage from the floods.

Continued urbanization of the United States is causing the deterioration of the central city; costly suburban developments; and increases in congestion, pollution, crime, violence and alienation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

It is shown that urban sprawl and the abuses of technological industries result in substantial environmental and economic costs at the expense of center city locations and populations. Socioeconomic deterioration and modification of the biosphere triggers climatic and environmental changes leading to ecosystem damage and destruction, health consequences and international conflict.

Effectiveness of the International Phytosanitary Standard ISPM No. 15 on reducing wood borer infestation rates in wood packaging material entering the United States

Treesearch

Robert A. Haack; Kerry O. Britton; Eckelhard G. Brockerhoff; Joseph F. Cavey; Lynn J. Garrett; Mark Kimberley; Frank Lowenstein; Amelia Nuding; Lars J. Olson; James Tumer; Kathryn N. Vasilaky

2014-01-01

Numerous bark- and wood-infesting insects have been introduced to new countries by international trade where some have caused severe environmental and economic damage. Wood packaging material (WPM), such as pallets, is one of the high risk pathways for the introduction of wood pests. International recognition of this risk resulted in adoption of International Standards...

Is timber insurable? A study of wildfire Risks in the U.S. forest sector using spatio-temporal models.

Treesearch

Xuan Chen; Barry K. Goodwin; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2014-01-01

In the U.S. forest products industry, wildfire is one of the leading causes of damage and economic losses. While individual wildfire behavior is well studied, new literature is emerging on broad-scale (e.g., county-level) wildfire risks. Our paper studies wildfire risks using crucial informational vari­ ables across both spatio units and time periods....

[Medical, social and economics aspects in the sulphur mines in Sicily(1791 - 1964)].

PubMed

Malta, R; Maira, G; Salerno, A

2007-01-01

In Sicily the sulphur extraction represented an occasion of economic growth and a development for the dignity of the workers. The "carusi", young boys from 6 to 14 years old, were given up by their parents in return of a hardly payed of loan; it was the so called "soccorso morto" (dead aid). They were submitted to an enormous very hard physical work that caused severe damage to the skeleton and this was the reason of their inability to military service. The anthropometric surveys of "carusi" and pupils highlight for the first ones a reduced increase of the height and for the second ones the presence of "gibbo". For this reasons the inhabitans of Racalmuto were called racalmutesi immiruti" which means that people who lives in Racalmuto were hunchbacked. Nowadays it's possible to say that dietary and nutritional causes determined metabolic damages to the skeleton. A comparison between people who have been declared unable for military service belonged to the two lower clones of farmers and miners showed a lower incidence of the first ones. The law of 1866 on child labour assigned to medical doctors the task of certifying their suitability to work: the first step of normalisation on a medical care basis.

An Approach to Assessing Flood Risk in Low-lying Paddy Areas of Japan considering Economic Damage on Rice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minakawa, H.; Masumoto, T.

2013-12-01

Hiroki Minakawa, Takao Masumoto National Institute for Rural Engineering (NIRE), NARO, Japan Flooding is one type of nature disaster, and is caused by heavy rainfall events. In the future, the risk of flooding is predicted to increase due to global climate change. Immediate measures such as strengthening drainage capacity are needed to minimize the damage caused by more frequent flooding, so a quantitative evaluation method of flood risks is needed to discuss countermeasure against these problems. At the same time, rice is an important crop for food production in Japan. However, paddy fields are often damaged by flooding because they are principally spread in lower part of the basin. Therefore, it is also important to assess the damages to paddy fields. This study discusses a method for evaluating a relationship between the risk of flood damage and the scale of heavy rainfall. We also developed a method of estimating the economic effect of a reduction in rice yield by flooding. First, we developed a drainage analysis model that incorporates kinematic and diffusive runoff models for calculating water level in channels and paddies. Next, heavy rainfall data for drainage analyses were generated by using a diurnal rainfall pattern generator. The generator can create hourly data of heavy rainfall, and internal pattern of them is different each. These data were input to the drainage model to estimate flood risk. Simultaneously, we tried to clarify economic losses of a rice yields caused by flooding. Here, the reduction scale in rice yield which shows relations between flooding situation (e.g. water level, duration of submersion etc.) and damage of rice is available to calculate reduction of rice yield. In this study, we created new reduction scales through a pseudo-flooding experiment under real inundation conditions. The methodology of the experiment was as follow: We chose the popular Japanese rice cultivar Koshihikari for this experiment. An experimental arena was constructed in a rice paddy plot, which consisted of two zones, one in which the rice was cultivated as usual with normal water levels, and a flood zone, which was used for submerging rice plants. The flood zone, which was designed to reproduce actual flood disaster conditions in paddy fields, can be filled with water to a depth of 0.3, 0.6 or 0.9 m above ground level, and is divided into two plots, a clean water part and a turbid water part. Thus, the experimental conditions can vary according to 1) the development stage of rice, 2) complete or incomplete submersion, 3) clean or turbid water, and 4) duration of submergence. Finally, the reduction scales were formulated by using the resultant data and it was found that rice is most sensitive to damage during the development stage. Flood risk was evaluated by using calculated water level on each paddy. Here, the averaged duration of inundation to a depth of more than 0.3 m was used as the criteria for flood occurrence. The results indicated that the duration increased with larger heavy rainfall amounts. Furthermore, the damage to rice was predicted to increase especially in low-lying paddy fields. Mitigation measures, such as revising drainage planning and/or changing design standards for the capacity of drainage pumps may be necessary in the future.

A spatial-dynamic value transfer model of economic losses from a biological invasion

Treesearch

Thomas P. Holmes; Andrew M. Liebhold; Kent F. Kovacs; Betsy Von Holle

2010-01-01

Rigorous assessments of the economic impacts of introduced species at broad spatial scales are required to provide credible information to policy makers. We propose that economic models of aggregate damages induced by biological invasions need to link microeconomic analyses of site-specific economic damages with spatial-dynamic models of value change associated with...

Analysis of Storm Surge in Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kao, W. H.

2017-12-01

A storm surge is a type of coastal flood that is caused by low-pressure systems such as tropical cyclones. Storm surges caused by tropical cyclones can be very powerful and damaging, as they can flood coastal areas, and even destroy infrastructure in serious cases. Some serious cases of storm surges leading to more than thousands of deaths include Hurricane Katrina (2005) in New Orleans and Typhoon Haiyan (2013) in Philippines. Hong Kong is a coastal city that is prone to tropical cyclones, having an average of 5-6 tropical cyclones entering 500km range of Hong Kong per year. Storm surges have seriously damaged Hong Kong in the past, causing more than 100 deaths by Typhoon Wanda (1962), and leading to serious damage to Tai O and Cheung Chau by Typhoon Hagupit (2008). To prevent economic damage and casualties from storm surges, accurately predicting the height of storm surges and giving timely warnings to citizens is very important. In this project, I will be analyzing how different factors affect the height of storm surge, mainly using data from Hong Kong. These factors include the windspeed in Hong Kong, the atmospheric pressure in Hong Kong, the moon phase, the wind direction, the intensity of the tropical cyclone, distance between the tropical cyclone and Hong Kong, the direction of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong, the speed of movement of the tropical cyclone and more. My findings will also be compared with cases from other places, to see if my findings also apply for other places.

Assessment of mean annual flood damage using simple hydraulic modeling and Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oubennaceur, K.; Agili, H.; Chokmani, K.; Poulin, J.; Marceau, P.

2016-12-01

Floods are the most frequent and the most damaging natural disaster in Canada. The issue of assessing and managing the risk related to this disaster has become increasingly crucial for both local and national authorities. Brigham, a municipality located in southern Quebec Province, is one of the heavily affected regions by this disaster because of frequent overflows of the Yamaska River reaching two to three times per year. Since Irene Hurricane which struck the region in 2011, causing considerable socio-economic damage, the implementation of mitigation measures has become a major priority for this municipality. To do this, a preliminary study to evaluate the risk to which this region is exposed is essential. Conventionally, approaches only based on the characterization of the hazard (e.g. floodplains extensive, flood depth) are generally adopted to study the risk of flooding. In order to improve the knowledge of this risk, a Monte Carlo simulation approach combining information on the hazard with vulnerability-related aspects has been developed. This approach integrates three main components: (1) hydrologic modelling aiming to establish a probability-discharge function which associate each measured discharge to its probability of occurrence (2) hydraulic modeling that aims to establish the relationship between the discharge and the water stage at each building (3) damage study that aims to assess the buildings damage using damage functions. The damage is estimated according to the water depth defined as the difference between the water level and the elevation of the building's first floor. The application of the proposed approach allows estimating the annual average cost of damage caused by floods on buildings. The obtained results will be useful for authorities to support their decisions on risk management and prevention against this disaster.

Causes and consequences of the sinkhole at El Trébol of Quito, Ecuador - implications for economic damage and risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toulkeridis, Theofilos; Rodríguez, Fabián; Arias Jiménez, Nelson; Simón Baile, Débora; Salazar Martínez, Rodolfo; Addison, Aaron; Carreón Freyre, Dora; Mato, Fernando; Díaz Perez, Carmen

2016-09-01

The so-called El Trébol is a critical road interchange in Quito connecting the north and south regions of the city. In addition, it connects Quito with the highly populated Los Chillos Valley, one of the most traveled zones in the Ecuadorian capital. El Trébol was constructed in the late 1960s in order to resolve the traffic jams of the capital city and for that purpose the Machángara River was rerouted through an underground concrete box tunnel. In March 2008, the tunnel contained a high amount of discarded furniture that had been impacting the top portion of the tunnel, compromising the structural integrity. On 31 March 2008 after a heavy rainfall a sinkhole of great proportions formed in the Trébol traffic hub. In the first few minutes, the sinkhole reached an initial diameter of 30 m. The collapse continued to grow in the following days until the final dimensions of 120 m in diameter and some 40 m of depth, revealing the Machángara River at the base of the sinkhole.A state of emergency was declared. The cause of the sinkhole was a result of the lack of monitoring of the older subterranean infrastructure where trash had accumulated and damaged the concrete tunnel that channelized the Machángara River until it was worn away for a length of some 20 m, leaving behind the sinkhole and the fear of recurrence in populated areas.With the intent to understand the causes and consequences of this sinkhole event, rainfall data are shown together with hydrogeological characteristics and a view back to the recent history of sinkhole lineation or arrangement of the city of Quito. The economic impact is also emphasized, where the direct costs of the damage and the reconstruction are presented and compared to indirect costs associated with this socio-natural disaster. These analyses suggest that the costs of indirect financial damage, like time loss or delay, and subsequent higher expenses for different types of vehicles, are equivalent to many times the costs of the reconstruction of El Trébol.

Quantifying the daily economic impact of extreme space weather due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oughton, Edward J.; Skelton, Andrew; Horne, Richard B.; Thomson, Alan W. P.; Gaunt, Charles T.

2017-01-01

Extreme space weather due to coronal mass ejections has the potential to cause considerable disruption to the global economy by damaging the transformers required to operate electricity transmission infrastructure. However, expert opinion is split between the potential outcome being one of a temporary regional blackout and of a more prolonged event. The temporary blackout scenario proposed by some is expected to last the length of the disturbance, with normal operations resuming after a couple of days. On the other hand, others have predicted widespread equipment damage with blackout scenarios lasting months. In this paper we explore the potential costs associated with failure in the electricity transmission infrastructure in the U.S. due to extreme space weather, focusing on daily economic loss. This provides insight into the direct and indirect economic consequences of how an extreme space weather event may affect domestic production, as well as other nations, via supply chain linkages. By exploring the sensitivity of the blackout zone, we show that on average the direct economic cost incurred from disruption to electricity represents only 49% of the total potential macroeconomic cost. Therefore, if indirect supply chain costs are not considered when undertaking cost-benefit analysis of space weather forecasting and mitigation investment, the total potential macroeconomic cost is not correctly represented. The paper contributes to our understanding of the economic impact of space weather, as well as making a number of key methodological contributions relevant for future work. Further economic impact assessment of this threat must consider multiday, multiregional events.

Economic costs of extratropical storms under climate change: An application of FUND

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narita, D.; Tol, R.; Anthoff, D.

2009-12-01

Extratropical cyclones have attracted some attention in climate policy circles as a possible significant damage factor of climate change. This study conducts an assessment of economic impacts of increased storm activities under climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.5. FUND is a model that calculates damages of climate change for 16 regions by making use of exogenous scenarios of socioeconomic variables (for details of our estimation approach, see our working paper whose URL is indicated below). Our estimation shows that in the base case, the direct economic damage of enhanced storms due to climate change amounts to $2.8 billion globally (approximately 38% of the total economic loss of storms at present) at the year 2100, while the ratio to the world GDP is 0.0009%. The regional results (Figure 1) indicate that the economic effect of extratropical storms with climate change would have relatively minor importance for the US (USA): The enhanced extratropical storm damage (less than 0.001% of GDP for the base case) is one order of magnitude lower than the tropical cyclone damage (roughly 0.01% GDP) calculated by the same version of FUND. In the regions without strong tropical cyclone influence, such as Western Europe (WEU) and Australia and New Zealand (ANZ), the extratropical storms might have some more significance as a possible damage factor of climate change. Especially for the latter, the direct economic damage could amount to more than 0.006% of GDP. Still, the impact is small relative to the income growth expected in these regions. Figure 1. Increased direct economic loss at the year 2100 for selected regions (results are shown for the three different baselines: the years 1986-2005, 1976-2005, and 1996-2005). US - USA; Canada - CAN; Western Europe - WEU; Australia and New Zealand - ANZ.

Treatment strategies for sheep scab: An economic model of farmer behaviour.

PubMed

Nixon, Emily J; Rose Vineer, Hannah; Wall, Richard

2017-02-01

Ovine psoroptic mange (sheep scab) is a debilitating and damaging condition caused by a hypersensitivity reaction to the faecal material of the parasitic mite Psoroptes ovis. Farmers incur costs from the use of prophylactic acaricides and, if their sheep become infected, they incur the costs of therapeutic treatment plus the economic loss from reduced stock growth, lower reproductive rate, wool loss and hide damage. The unwillingness of farmers to use routine prophylactic treatment has been cited as a primary cause of the growing incidence of sheep scab in the United Kingdom (UK) since the disease was deregulated in 1992. However, if farmers behave rationally from an economic perspective, the optimum strategy that they should adopt will depend on the risk of infection and the relative costs of prophylactic versus therapeutic treatment, plus potential losses. This calculation is also complicated by the fact that the risk of infection is increased if neighbours have scab and reduced if neighbours treat prophylactically. Hence, for any farmer, the risk of infection and optimum approach to treatment is also contingent on the behaviour of neighbours, particularly when common grazing is used. Here, the relative economic costs of different prophylactic treatment strategies are calculated for upland and lowland farmers and a game theory model is used to evaluate the relative costs for a farmer and his/her neighbour under different risk scenarios. The analysis shows that prophylaxis with organophosphate (OP) dipping is a cost effective strategy, but only for upland farmers where the risk of infection is high. In all other circumstances prophylaxis is not cost effective relative to reliance on reactive (therapeutic) treatment. Hence, farmers adopting a reactive treatment policy only, are behaving in an economically rational manner. Prophylaxis and cooperation only become economically rational if the risk of scab infection is considerably higher than the current national average, or the cost of treatment is lower. Should policy makers wish to reduce the national prevalence of scab, economic incentives such as subsidising the cost of acaricides or rigorously applied financial penalties, would be required to make prophylactic treatment economically appealing to individual farmers. However, such options incur their own infrastructure and implementation costs for central government. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of physically- and economically-based CO2-equivalences for methane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucher, O.

2012-01-01

There is a controversy on the role methane (and other short-lived species) should play in climate mitigation policies and no consensus on what an optimal methane CO2-equivalence should be. We revisit this question by discussing the relative merits of physically-based (i.e. Global Warming Potential or GWP and Global Temperature change Potential or GTP) and socio-economically-based climate metrics. To this effect we use a simplified Global Damage Potential (GDP) that was introduced by earlier authors and investigate the uncertainties in the methane CO2-equivalence that arise from physical and socio-economic factors. The median value of the methane GDP comes out very close to the widely used methane 100-year GWP because of various compensating effects. However there is a large spread in possible methane CO2-equivalences (1-99% interval: 10.0-42.5; 5-95% interval: 12.5-38.0) that is essentially due to the choice in some socio-economic parameters (i.e. the damage cost function and the discount rate). The methane 100-year GTP falls outside these ranges. It is legitimate to increase the methane CO2-equivalence in the future as global warming unfolds. While changes in biogeochemical cycles and radiative efficiencies cause some small changes to physically-based metrics, a systematic increase in the methane CO2-equivalence can only be achieved by some ad-hoc shortening of the time horizon. In contrast using a convex damage cost function provides a natural increase in the methane CO2-equivalence for the socio-economically-based metrics. We also show that a methane CO2-equivalence based on a pulse emission is sufficient to inform multi-year climate policies and emissions reductions as long as there is some degree of visibility on CO2 prices and CO2-equivalences.

Can Mass Trapping Reduce Thrips Damage and Is It Economically Viable? Management of the Western Flower Thrips in Strawberry

PubMed Central

Sampson, Clare; Kirk, William D. J.

2013-01-01

The western flower thrips Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) is a cosmopolitan, polyphagous insect pest that causes bronzing to fruit of strawberry (Fragaria x ananassa). The main aim of this study was to test whether mass trapping could reduce damage and to predict whether this approach would be economically viable. In semi-protected strawberry crops, mass trapping of F. occidentalis using blue sticky roller traps reduced adult thrips numbers per flower by 61% and fruit bronzing by 55%. The addition of the F. occidentalis aggregation pheromone, neryl (S)-2-methylbutanoate, to the traps doubled the trap catch, reduced adult thrips numbers per flower by 73% and fruit bronzing by 68%. The factors affecting trapping efficiency through the season are discussed. Damage that would result in downgrading of fruit to a cheaper price occurred when bronzing affected about 10% of the red fruit surface. Cost-benefit analysis using this threshold showed that mass trapping of thrips using blue sticky roller traps can be cost-effective in high-value crops. The addition of blue sticky roller traps to an integrated pest management programme maintained thrips numbers below the damage threshold and increased grower returns by a conservative estimate of £2.2k per hectare. Further work is required to develop the F. occidentalis aggregation pheromone for mass trapping and to determine the best timing for trap deployment. Mass trapping of thrips is likely to be cost-effective in other countries and other high-value crops affected by F. occidentalis damage, such as cucumber and cut flowers. PMID:24282554

Mega wildfire in the World Biosphere Reserve (UNESCO), Torres del Paine National Park, Patagonia - Chile 2012: Work experience in extreme behavior conditions in the context of global warming

Treesearch

René Cifuentes Medina

2013-01-01

Mega wildfires are critical, high-impact events that cause severe environmental, economic and social damage, resulting, in turn, in high-cost suppression operations and the need for mutual support, phased use of resources and the coordinated efforts of civilian government agencies, the armed forces, private companies and the international community. The mega forest...

The Effect of Hurricanes on Annual Precipitation in Maryland and the Connection to Global Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Jackie; Liu, Zhong

2015-01-01

Precipitation is a vital aspect of our lives droughts, floods and other related disasters that involve precipitation can cause costly damage in the economic system and general society. Purpose of this project is to determine what, if any effect do hurricanes have on annual precipitation in Maryland Research will be conducted on Marylands terrain, climatology, annual precipitation, and precipitation contributed from hurricanes Possible connections to climate change

Transcriptomics, metabolomics and histology indicate that high-carbohydrate diet negatively affects the liver health of blunt snout bream (Megalobrama amblycephala).

PubMed

Prisingkorn, Wassana; Prathomya, Panita; Jakovlić, Ivan; Liu, Han; Zhao, Yu-Hua; Wang, Wei-Min

2017-11-09

Global trend of the introduction of high levels of relatively cheap carbohydrates to reduce the amount of costly protein in the aquatic animal feed production has affected the aquaculture of an economically important cyprinid fish, blunt snout bream (Megalobrama amblycephala). This dietary shift has resulted in increased prevalence of metabolic disorders, often causing economic losses. High dietary intake of carbohydrates, associated with obesity, is one of the major causes of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in humans. We have conducted an eight-week feeding trial to better understand how a high-carbohydrate diet (HCBD) affects the liver health in this fish. Hepatosomatic index and lipid content were significantly (P < 0.05) higher in the HCBD group. Histology results also suggested pathological changes in the livers of HCBD group, with excessive lipid accumulation and indication of liver damage. Metabolomics and serum biochemistry analyses showed that a number of metabolites indicative of liver damage were increased in the HCBD group. This group also exhibited low levels of betaine, which is a metabolite crucial for maintaining the healthy liver functions. Transcriptomic and qPCR analyses indicated that HCBD had a strong impact on the expression of a large number of genes associated with the NAFLD and insulin signalling pathways, which may lead to the development of insulin resistance in hepatocytes, pathological liver changes, and eventually the NAFLD. Transcriptomics, metabolomics and histology results all indicate early symptoms of liver damage. However whether these would actually lead to the development of NAFLD after a longer period of time, remains inconclusive. Additionally, a very high number of upregulated genes in the HCBD group associated with several neurodegenerative diseases is a strong indication of neurodegenerative changes caused by the high-carbohydrate diet in blunt snout bream. This suggests that fish might present a good model to study neurodegenerative changes associated with high-carbohydrate diet in humans.

Numerical modeling of oil shale fragmentation experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuszmaul, J.S.

The economic development of modified in situ oil shale retorting will benefit from the ability to design a blasting scheme that creates a rubble bed of uniform permeability. Preparing such a design depends upon successfully predicting how a given explosive charge and firing sequence will fracture the oil shale. Numerical models are used to predict the extent of damage caused by a particular explosive charge. Recent single-blastwell cratering tests provided experimental measurements of the extent of damage induced by an explosion. Measuring rock damage involved crater excavation, rubble screening, crater elevation surveys, and posttest extraction of cores. These measurements weremore » compared to the damage calculated by the numerical model. Core analyses showed that the damage varied greatly from layer to layer. The numerical results also show this effect, indicating that rock damage is highly dependent on oil shale grade. The computer simulation also calculated particle velocities and dynamic stress amplitudes in the rock; predicted values agree with experimental measurements. Calculated rock fragmentation compared favorably with fragmentation measured by crater excavation and by core analysis. Because coring provides direct inspection of rock fragmentation, the use of posttest coring in future experiments is recommended.« less

Applications of a damage tolerance analysis methodology in aircraft design and production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodward, M. R.; Owens, S. D.; Law, G. E.; Mignery, L. A.

1992-01-01

Objectives of customer mandated aircraft structural integrity initiatives in design are to guide material selection, to incorporate fracture resistant concepts in the design, to utilize damage tolerance based allowables and planned inspection procedures necessary to enhance the safety and reliability of manned flight vehicles. However, validated fracture analysis tools for composite structures are needed to accomplish these objectives in a timely and economical manner. This paper briefly describes the development, validation, and application of a damage tolerance methodology for composite airframe structures. A closed-form analysis code, entitled SUBLAM was developed to predict the critical biaxial strain state necessary to cause sublaminate buckling-induced delamination extension in an impact damaged composite laminate. An embedded elliptical delamination separating a thin sublaminate from a thick parent laminate is modelled. Predicted failure strains were correlated against a variety of experimental data that included results from compression after impact coupon and element tests. An integrated analysis package was developed to predict damage tolerance based margin-of-safety (MS) using NASTRAN generated loads and element information. Damage tolerance aspects of new concepts are quickly and cost-effectively determined without the need for excessive testing.

A Methodology for Forecasting Damage & Economic Consequences to Floods: Building on the National Flood Interoperability Experiment (NFIE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tootle, G. A.; Gutenson, J. L.; Zhu, L.; Ernest, A. N. S.; Oubeidillah, A.; Zhang, X.

2015-12-01

The National Flood Interoperability Experiment (NFIE) held June 3-July 17, 2015 at the National Water Center (NWC) in Tuscaloosa, Alabama sought to demonstrate an increase in flood predictive capacity for the coterminous United States (CONUS). Accordingly, NFIE-derived technologies and workflows offer the ability to forecast flood damage and economic consequence estimates that coincide with the hydrologic and hydraulic estimations these physics-based models generate. A model providing an accurate prediction of damage and economic consequences is a valuable asset when allocating funding for disaster response, recovery, and relief. Damage prediction and economic consequence assessment also offer an adaptation planning mechanism for defending particularly valuable or vulnerable structures. The NFIE, held at the NWC on The University of Alabama (UA) campus led to the development of this large scale flow and inundation forecasting framework. Currently, the system can produce 15-hour lead-time forecasts for the entire coterminous United States (CONUS). A concept which is anticipated to become operational as of May 2016 within the NWC. The processing of such a large-scale, fine resolution model is accomplished in a parallel computing environment using large supercomputing clusters. Traditionally, flood damage and economic consequence assessment is calculated in a desktop computing environment with a ménage of meteorology, hydrology, hydraulic, and damage assessment tools. In the United States, there are a range of these flood damage/ economic consequence assessment software's available to local, state, and federal emergency management agencies. Among the more commonly used and freely accessible models are the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Flood Damage Reduction Analysis (HEC-FDA), Flood Impact Assessment (HEC-FIA), and Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) United States Multi-Hazard (Hazus-MH). All of which exist only in a desktop environment. With this, authors submit an initial framework for estimating damage and economic consequences to floods using flow and inundation products from the NFIE framework. This adaptive system utilizes existing nationwide datasets describing location and use of structures and can take assimilate a range of data resolutions.

Groundwater potential for water supply during droughts in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyun, Y.; Cha, E.; Moon, H. J.

2016-12-01

Droughts have been receiving much attention in Korea because severe droughts occurred in recent years, causing significant social, economic and environmental damages in some regions. Residents in agricultural area, most of all, were most damaged by droughts with lack of available water supplies to meet crop water demands. In order to mitigate drought damages, we present a strategy to keep from agricultural droughts by using groundwater to meet water supply as a potential water resource in agricultural areas. In this study, we analyze drought severity and the groundwater potential to mitigate social and environmental damages caused by droughts in Korea. We evaluate drought severity by analyzing spatial and temporal meteorological and hydrological data such as rainfall, water supply and demand. For drought severity, we use effective drought index along with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized runoff index(SRI). Water deficit during the drought period is also quantified to consider social and environmental impact of droughts. Then we assess the feasibility of using groundwater as a potential source for groundwater impact mitigation. Results show that the agricultural areas are more vulnerable to droughts and use of groundwater as an emergency water resource is feasible in some regions. For a case study, we select Jeong-Sun area located in Kangwon providence having well-developed Karst aquifers and surrounded by mountains. For Jeong-Sun area, we quantify groundwater potential use, design the method of water supply by using groundwater, and assess its economic benefit. Results show that water supply system with groundwater abstraction can be a good strategy when droughts are severe for an emergency water supply in Jeong-Sun area, and groundwater can also be used not only for a dry season water supply resource, but for everyday water supply system. This case study results can further be applicable to some regions with no sufficient water infrastructure and high groundwater use potential. For concrete conclusions, rigorous study on performance evaluation of water supply using groundwater is further needed.

Nuclear Waste Management under Approaching Disaster: A Comparison of Decommissioning Strategies for the German Repository Asse II.

PubMed

Ilg, Patrick; Gabbert, Silke; Weikard, Hans-Peter

2017-07-01

This article compares different strategies for handling low- and medium-level nuclear waste buried in a retired potassium mine in Germany (Asse II) that faces significant risk of uncontrollable brine intrusion and, hence, long-term groundwater contamination. We survey the policy process that has resulted in the identification of three possible so-called decommissioning options: complete backfilling, relocation of the waste to deeper levels in the mine, and retrieval. The selection of a decommissioning strategy must compare expected investment costs with expected social damage costs (economic, environmental, and health damage costs) caused by flooding and subsequent groundwater contamination. We apply a cost minimization approach that accounts for the uncertainty regarding the stability of the rock formation and the risk of an uncontrollable brine intrusion. Since economic and health impacts stretch out into the far future, we examine the impact of different discounting methods and rates. Due to parameter uncertainty, we conduct a sensitivity analysis concerning key assumptions. We find that retrieval, the currently preferred option by policymakers, has the lowest expected social damage costs for low discount rates. However, this advantage is overcompensated by higher expected investment costs. Considering all costs, backfilling is the best option for all discounting scenarios considered. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Invasive species triggers a massive loss of ecosystem services through a trophic cascade.

PubMed

Walsh, Jake R; Carpenter, Stephen R; Vander Zanden, M Jake

2016-04-12

Despite growing recognition of the importance of ecosystem services and the economic and ecological harm caused by invasive species, linkages between invasions, changes in ecosystem functioning, and in turn, provisioning of ecosystem services remain poorly documented and poorly understood. We evaluate the economic impacts of an invasion that cascaded through a food web to cause substantial declines in water clarity, a valued ecosystem service. The predatory zooplankton, the spiny water flea (Bythotrephes longimanus), invaded the Laurentian Great Lakes in the 1980s and has subsequently undergone secondary spread to inland lakes, including Lake Mendota (Wisconsin), in 2009. In Lake Mendota, Bythotrephes has reached unparalleled densities compared with in other lakes, decreasing biomass of the grazer Daphnia pulicaria and causing a decline in water clarity of nearly 1 m. Time series modeling revealed that the loss in water clarity, valued at US$140 million (US$640 per household), could be reversed by a 71% reduction in phosphorus loading. A phosphorus reduction of this magnitude is estimated to cost between US$86.5 million and US$163 million (US$430-US$810 per household). Estimates of the economic effects of Great Lakes invasive species may increase considerably if cases of secondary invasions into inland lakes, such as Lake Mendota, are included. Furthermore, such extreme cases of economic damages call for increased investment in the prevention and control of invasive species to better maximize the economic benefits of such programs. Our results highlight the need to more fully incorporate ecosystem services into our analysis of invasive species impacts, management, and public policy.

An economic assessment of the health effects and crop yield losses caused by air pollution in mainland China.

PubMed

Miao, Weijie; Huang, Xin; Song, Yu

2017-06-01

Air pollution is severe in China, and pollutants such as PM 2.5 and surface O 3 may cause major damage to human health and crops, respectively. Few studies have considered the health effects of PM 2.5 or the loss of crop yields due to surface O 3 using model-simulated air pollution data in China. We used gridded outputs from the WRF-Chem model, high resolution population data, and crop yield data to evaluate the effects on human health and crop yield in mainland China. Our results showed that outdoor PM 2.5 pollution was responsible for 1.70-1.99 million cases of all-cause mortality in 2006. The economic costs of these health effects were estimated to be 151.1-176.9 billion USD, of which 90% were attributed to mortality. The estimated crop yield losses for wheat, rice, maize, and soybean were approximately 9, 4.6, 0.44, and 0.34 million tons, respectively, resulting in economic losses of 3.4 billion USD. The total economic losses due to ambient air pollution were estimated to be 154.5-180.3 billion USD, accounting for approximately 5.7%-6.6% of the total GDP of China in 2006. Our results show that both population health and staple crop yields in China have been significantly affected by exposure to air pollution. Measures should be taken to reduce emissions, improve air quality, and mitigate the economic loss. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Impact of Single-Photon Emission Computed Tomography/Computed Tomography (SPECT/CT) and Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography (PET/CT) in the Diagnosis of Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI): Case Report.

PubMed

Molina-Vicenty, Irma L; Santiago-Sánchez, Michelaldemar; Vélez-Miró, Iván; Motta-Valencia, Keryl

2016-09-01

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is defined as damage to the brain resulting from an external force. TBI, a global leading cause of death and disability, is associated with serious social, economic, and health problems. In cases of mild-to-moderate brain damage, conventional anatomical imaging modalities may or may not detect the cascade of metabolic changes that have occurred or are occurring at the intracellular level. Functional nuclear medicine imaging and neurophysiological parameters can be used to characterize brain damage, as the former provides direct visualization of brain function, even in the absence of overt behavioral manifestations or anatomical findings. We report the case of a 30-year-old Hispanic male veteran who, after 2 traumatic brain injury events, developed cognitive and neuropsychological problems with no clear etiology in the presence of negative computed tomography (CT) findings.

Economic development and coastal ecosystem change in China.

PubMed

He, Qiang; Bertness, Mark D; Bruno, John F; Li, Bo; Chen, Guoqian; Coverdale, Tyler C; Altieri, Andrew H; Bai, Junhong; Sun, Tao; Pennings, Steven C; Liu, Jianguo; Ehrlich, Paul R; Cui, Baoshan

2014-08-08

Despite their value, coastal ecosystems are globally threatened by anthropogenic impacts, yet how these impacts are driven by economic development is not well understood. We compiled a multifaceted dataset to quantify coastal trends and examine the role of economic growth in China's coastal degradation since the 1950s. Although China's coastal population growth did not change following the 1978 economic reforms, its coastal economy increased by orders of magnitude. All 15 coastal human impacts examined increased over time, especially after the reforms. Econometric analysis revealed positive relationships between most impacts and GDP across temporal and spatial scales, often lacking dropping thresholds. These relationships generally held when influences of population growth were addressed by analyzing per capita impacts, and when population density was included as explanatory variables. Historical trends in physical and biotic indicators showed that China's coastal ecosystems changed little or slowly between the 1950s and 1978, but have degraded at accelerated rates since 1978. Thus economic growth has been the cause of accelerating human damage to China's coastal ecosystems. China's GDP per capita remains very low. Without strict conservation efforts, continuing economic growth will further degrade China's coastal ecosystems.

NOx Emissions from Large Point Sources: Variability in Ozone Production, Resulting Health Damages and Economic Costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauzerall, D. L.; Sultan, B.; Kim, N.; Bradford, D.

2004-12-01

We present a proof-of-concept analysis of the measurement of the health damage of ozone (O3) produced from nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) emitted by individual large point sources in the eastern United States. We use a regional atmospheric model of the eastern United States, the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx), to quantify the variable impact that a fixed quantity of NOx emitted from individual sources can have on the downwind concentration of surface O3, depending on temperature and local biogenic hydrocarbon emissions. We also examine the dependence of resulting ozone-related health damages on the size of the exposed population. The investigation is relevant to the increasingly widely used "cap and trade" approach to NOx regulation, which presumes that shifts of emissions over time and space, holding the total fixed over the course of the summer O3 season, will have minimal effect on the environmental outcome. By contrast, we show that a shift of a unit of NOx emissions from one place or time to another could result in large changes in the health effects due to ozone formation and exposure. We indicate how the type of modeling carried out here might be used to attach externality-correcting prices to emissions. Charging emitters fees that are commensurate with the damage caused by their NOx emissions would create an incentive for emitters to reduce emissions at times and in locations where they cause the largest damage.

Spain's greatest and most recent mine disaster.

PubMed

Guerrero, Flor Ma; Lozano, Macarena; Rueda-Cantuche, José M

2008-03-01

On 25 April 1998, the mineral waste retaining wall at the Swedish-owned pyrite mine at Aznalcóllar (Seville, Spain) burst, causing the most harmful environmental and socio-economic disaster in the history of the River Guadiamar basin. The damage was so great that the regional government decided in May 1998 to finance a comprehensive, multidisciplinary research initiative with the objective of eradicating or at least minimising all of the negative social, economic and environmental impacts. This paper utilises a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis to identify eight strategic measures aimed at providing policymakers with key guidelines on implementing a sustainable development model, in a broad sense. Empirical evidence, though, reveals that, to date, major efforts to tackle the negative impacts have centred on environmental concerns and that the socio-economic consequences have not been completely mitigated.

Integrated analysis considered mitigation cost, damage cost and adaptation cost in Northeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Kim, H. G.; Sung, S.; Jung, T. Y.

2015-12-01

Various studies show that raising the temperature as well as storms, cold snap, raining and drought caused by climate change. And variety disasters have had a damage to mankind. The world risk report(2012, The Nature Conservancy) and UNU-EHS (the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security) reported that more and more people are exposed to abnormal weather such as floods, drought, earthquakes, typhoons and hurricanes over the world. In particular, the case of Korea, we influenced by various pollutants which are occurred in Northeast Asian countries, China and Japan, due to geographical meteorological characteristics. These contaminants have had a significant impact on air quality with the pollutants generated in Korea. Recently, around the world continued their effort to reduce greenhouse gas and to improve air quality in conjunction with the national or regional development goals priority. China is also working on various efforts in accordance with the international flows to cope with climate change and air pollution. In the future, effect of climate change and air quality in Korea and Northeast Asia will be change greatly according to China's growth and mitigation policies. The purpose of this study is to minimize the damage caused by climate change on the Korean peninsula through an integrated approach taking into account the mitigation and adaptation plan. This study will suggest a climate change strategy at the national level by means of a comprehensive economic analysis of the impacts and mitigation of climate change. In order to quantify the impact and damage cost caused by climate change scenarios in a regional scale, it should be priority variables selected in accordance with impact assessment of climate change. The sectoral impact assessment was carried out on the basis of selected variables and through this, to derive the methodology how to estimate damage cost and adaptation cost. And then, the methodology was applied in Korea. Finally, we build an integrated analysis considered mitigation cost, damage cost, and adaptation cost by climate change

Multi-scale monitoring of landscape change after the 2011 tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hara, K.; Zhao, Y.; Harada, I.; Tomita, M.; Park, J.; Jung, E.; Kamagata, N.; Hirabuki, Y.

2015-04-01

The Great East Japan Earthquake (magnitude 9.0; occurred on 11th March 2011) and subsequent huge tsunami caused widespread damage along the Pacific Ocean coast of eastern Honshu, Japan. This research utilizes multi-resolution remote sensing images to clarify the impact on landscapes caused by this disaster, and also to monitor the subsequent survival and recovery process in the Sendai Bay region. The coastal landscape in the target area features a narrow strip of coastal sand barrier, historically stabilized by planted pine groves; backed by a low-lying plain that has traditionally been diked and converted to irrigated rice paddies. Farmsteads on the flat alluvial plain are surrounded by groves called "Igune", consisting primarily of conifers. MODIS data (250 m resolution) were employed to map the overall extent of inundation and damage on the regional landscape scale. The major damage caused by the tsunami, destruction of coastal pine forests and inundation or rice paddies on the plain, was identified at this level. Progressively finer scale analysis were then implemented using SPOT/HRG-2 (10 m resolution) data; GeoEye-1 fine resolution data (0.5 m) and very fine resolution aerial photographs (10 cm) and LiDAR. These results demonstrated the minute details of the damage and recovery process. Some patches of pine forest, for example, were seen to have survived, and some coastal plant communities were already recovering only a year after the disaster. Continuous monitoring using field work and remote sensing is required for balanced regional strategies that provide for economic and social recovery and as well as restoration of vegetation, biodiversity and vital ecosystem services.

The Complex Biogeography of the Plant Pathogen Xylella fastidiosa: Genetic Evidence of Introductions and Subspecific Introgression in Central America

PubMed Central

Nunney, Leonard; Ortiz, Beatriz; Russell, Stephanie A.; Ruiz Sánchez, Rebeca; Stouthamer, Richard

2014-01-01

The bacterium Xylella fastidiosa is a plant pathogen with a history of economically damaging introductions of subspecies to regions where its other subspecies are native. Genetic evidence is presented demonstrating the introduction of two new taxa into Central America and their introgression into the native subspecies, X. fastidiosa subsp. fastidiosa. The data are from 10 genetic outliers detected by multilocus sequence typing (MLST) of isolates from Costa Rica. Six (five from oleander, one from coffee) defined a new sequence type (ST53) that carried alleles at six of the eight loci sequenced (five of the seven MLST loci) diagnostic of the South American subspecies Xylella fastidiosa subsp. pauca which causes two economically damaging plant diseases, citrus variegated chlorosis and coffee leaf scorch. The two remaining loci of ST53 carried alleles from what appears to be a new South American form of X. fastidiosa. Four isolates, classified as X. fastidiosa subsp. fastidiosa, showed a low level of introgression of non-native DNA. One grapevine isolate showed introgression of an allele from X. fastidiosa subsp. pauca while the other three (from citrus and coffee) showed introgression of an allele with similar ancestry to the alleles of unknown origin in ST53. The presence of X. fastidiosa subsp. pauca in Central America is troubling given its disease potential, and establishes another route for the introduction of this economically damaging subspecies into the US or elsewhere, a threat potentially compounded by the presence of a previously unknown form of X. fastidiosa. PMID:25379725

The complex biogeography of the plant pathogen Xylella fastidiosa: genetic evidence of introductions and Subspecific introgression in Central America.

PubMed

Nunney, Leonard; Ortiz, Beatriz; Russell, Stephanie A; Ruiz Sánchez, Rebeca; Stouthamer, Richard

2014-01-01

The bacterium Xylella fastidiosa is a plant pathogen with a history of economically damaging introductions of subspecies to regions where its other subspecies are native. Genetic evidence is presented demonstrating the introduction of two new taxa into Central America and their introgression into the native subspecies, X. fastidiosa subsp. fastidiosa. The data are from 10 genetic outliers detected by multilocus sequence typing (MLST) of isolates from Costa Rica. Six (five from oleander, one from coffee) defined a new sequence type (ST53) that carried alleles at six of the eight loci sequenced (five of the seven MLST loci) diagnostic of the South American subspecies Xylella fastidiosa subsp. pauca which causes two economically damaging plant diseases, citrus variegated chlorosis and coffee leaf scorch. The two remaining loci of ST53 carried alleles from what appears to be a new South American form of X. fastidiosa. Four isolates, classified as X. fastidiosa subsp. fastidiosa, showed a low level of introgression of non-native DNA. One grapevine isolate showed introgression of an allele from X. fastidiosa subsp. pauca while the other three (from citrus and coffee) showed introgression of an allele with similar ancestry to the alleles of unknown origin in ST53. The presence of X. fastidiosa subsp. pauca in Central America is troubling given its disease potential, and establishes another route for the introduction of this economically damaging subspecies into the US or elsewhere, a threat potentially compounded by the presence of a previously unknown form of X. fastidiosa.

Transgenic Strategies for Enhancement of Nematode Resistance in Plants

PubMed Central

Ali, Muhammad A.; Azeem, Farrukh; Abbas, Amjad; Joyia, Faiz A.; Li, Hongjie; Dababat, Abdelfattah A.

2017-01-01

Plant parasitic nematodes (PPNs) are obligate biotrophic parasites causing serious damage and reduction in crop yields. Several economically important genera parasitize various crop plants. The root-knot, root lesion, and cyst nematodes are the three most economically damaging genera of PPNs on crops within the family Heteroderidae. It is very important to devise various management strategies against PPNs in economically important crop plants. Genetic engineering has proven a promising tool for the development of biotic and abiotic stress tolerance in crop plants. Additionally, the genetic engineering leading to transgenic plants harboring nematode resistance genes has demonstrated its significance in the field of plant nematology. Here, we have discussed the use of genetic engineering for the development of nematode resistance in plants. This review article also provides a detailed account of transgenic strategies for the resistance against PPNs. The strategies include natural resistance genes, cloning of proteinase inhibitor coding genes, anti-nematodal proteins and use of RNA interference to suppress nematode effectors. Furthermore, the manipulation of expression levels of genes induced and suppressed by nematodes has also been suggested as an innovative approach for inducing nematode resistance in plants. The information in this article will provide an array of possibilities to engineer resistance against PPNs in different crop plants. PMID:28536595

Transgenic Strategies for Enhancement of Nematode Resistance in Plants.

PubMed

Ali, Muhammad A; Azeem, Farrukh; Abbas, Amjad; Joyia, Faiz A; Li, Hongjie; Dababat, Abdelfattah A

2017-01-01

Plant parasitic nematodes (PPNs) are obligate biotrophic parasites causing serious damage and reduction in crop yields. Several economically important genera parasitize various crop plants. The root-knot, root lesion, and cyst nematodes are the three most economically damaging genera of PPNs on crops within the family Heteroderidae. It is very important to devise various management strategies against PPNs in economically important crop plants. Genetic engineering has proven a promising tool for the development of biotic and abiotic stress tolerance in crop plants. Additionally, the genetic engineering leading to transgenic plants harboring nematode resistance genes has demonstrated its significance in the field of plant nematology. Here, we have discussed the use of genetic engineering for the development of nematode resistance in plants. This review article also provides a detailed account of transgenic strategies for the resistance against PPNs. The strategies include natural resistance genes, cloning of proteinase inhibitor coding genes, anti-nematodal proteins and use of RNA interference to suppress nematode effectors. Furthermore, the manipulation of expression levels of genes induced and suppressed by nematodes has also been suggested as an innovative approach for inducing nematode resistance in plants. The information in this article will provide an array of possibilities to engineer resistance against PPNs in different crop plants.

Economic costs of excessive alcohol consumption in the U.S., 2006.

PubMed

Bouchery, Ellen E; Harwood, Henrick J; Sacks, Jeffrey J; Simon, Carol J; Brewer, Robert D

2011-11-01

Excessive alcohol consumption causes premature death (average of 79,000 deaths annually); increased disease and injury; property damage from fire and motor vehicle crashes; alcohol-related crime; and lost productivity. However, its economic cost has not been assessed for the U.S. since 1998. To update prior national estimates of the economic costs of excessive drinking. This study (conducted 2009-2010) followed U.S. Public Health Service Guidelines to assess the economic cost of excessive alcohol consumption in 2006. Costs for health care, productivity losses, and other effects (e.g., property damage) in 2006 were obtained from national databases. Alcohol-attributable fractions were obtained from multiple sources and used to assess the proportion of costs that could be attributed to excessive alcohol consumption. The estimated economic cost of excessive drinking was $223.5 billion in 2006 (72.2% from lost productivity, 11.0% from healthcare costs, 9.4% from criminal justice costs, and 7.5% from other effects) or approximately $1.90 per alcoholic drink. Binge drinking resulted in costs of $170.7 billion (76.4% of the total); underage drinking $24.6 [corrected] billion; and drinking during pregnancy $5.2 billion. The cost of alcohol-attributable crime was $73.3 billion. The cost to government was $94.2 billion (42.1% of the total cost), which corresponds to about $0.80 per alcoholic drink consumed in 2006 (categories are not mutually exclusive and may overlap). On a per capita basis, the economic impact of excessive alcohol consumption in the U.S. is approximately $746 per person, most of which is attributable to binge drinking. Evidence-based strategies for reducing excessive drinking should be widely implemented. Copyright © 2011 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

A prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt flood events in middle and high latitudes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiao, C.; Huang, Q.; Chen, T.; Zhang, X.

2017-12-01

In the context of global warming, the snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area of the middle and high latitudes are increasingly frequent and create severe casualties and property damages. Carrying out the prediction and risk assessment of the snowmelt flood is of great importance in the water resources management, the flood warning and prevention. Based on the remote sensing and GIS techniques, the relationships of the variables influencing the snowmelt flood such as the snow area, the snow depth, the air temperature, the precipitation, the land topography and land covers are analyzed and a prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt floods is developed. This model analyzes and predicts the flood submerging area, flood depth, flood grade, and the damages of different underlying surfaces in the study area in a given time period based on the estimation of snowmelt amount, the snowmelt runoff, the direction and velocity of the flood. Then it was used to predict a snowmelt flood event in the Ertis River Basin in northern Xinjiang, China, during March and June, 2005 and to assess its damages including the damages of roads, transmission lines, settlements caused by the floods and the possible landslides using the hydrological and meteorological data, snow parameter data, DEM data and land use data. A comparison was made between the prediction results from this model and observation data including the flood measurement and its disaster loss data, which suggests that this model performs well in predicting the strength and impact area of snowmelt flood and its damage assessment. This model will be helpful for the prediction and damage assessment of snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area in the middle and high latitudes in spring, which has great social and economic significance because it provides a relatively reliable method for snowmelt flood prediction and reduces the possible damages caused by snowmelt floods.

A comparative survey of the impacts of extreme rainfall in two international case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spekkers, Matthieu; Rözer, Viktor; Thieken, Annegret; ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire; Kreibich, Heidi

2017-08-01

Flooding is assessed as the most important natural hazard in Europe, causing thousands of deaths, affecting millions of people and accounting for large economic losses in the past decade. Little is known about the damage processes associated with extreme rainfall in cities, due to a lack of accurate, comparable and consistent damage data. The objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of extreme rainfall on residential buildings and how affected households coped with these impacts in terms of precautionary and emergency actions. Analyses are based on a unique dataset of damage characteristics and a wide range of potential damage explaining variables at the household level, collected through computer-aided telephone interviews (CATI) and an online survey. Exploratory data analyses based on a total of 859 completed questionnaires in the cities of Münster (Germany) and Amsterdam (the Netherlands) revealed that the uptake of emergency measures is related to characteristics of the hazardous event. In case of high water levels, more efforts are made to reduce damage, while emergency response that aims to prevent damage is less likely to be effective. The difference in magnitude of the events in Münster and Amsterdam, in terms of rainfall intensity and water depth, is probably also the most important cause for the differences between the cities in terms of the suffered financial losses. Factors that significantly contributed to damage in at least one of the case studies are water contamination, the presence of a basement in the building and people's awareness of the upcoming event. Moreover, this study confirms conclusions by previous studies that people's experience with damaging events positively correlates with precautionary behaviour. For improving future damage data acquisition, we recommend the inclusion of cell phones in a CATI survey to avoid biased sampling towards certain age groups.

Wildlife trade and global disease emergence.

PubMed

Karesh, William B; Cook, Robert A; Bennett, Elizabeth L; Newcomb, James

2005-07-01

The global trade in wildlife provides disease transmission mechanisms that not only cause human disease outbreaks but also threaten livestock, international trade, rural livelihoods, native wildlife populations, and the health of ecosystems. Outbreaks resulting from wildlife trade have caused hundreds of billions of dollars of economic damage globally. Rather than attempting to eradicate pathogens or the wild species that may harbor them, a practical approach would include decreasing the contact rate among species, including humans, at the interface created by the wildlife trade. Since wildlife marketing functions as a system of scale-free networks with major hubs, these points provide control opportunities to maximize the effects of regulatory efforts.

A new perspective on severe nuclear accidents.

PubMed

Lee, Jaiki

2012-03-01

The reactions of the public in Korea to the nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi plants in Japan, particularly over-reactions, are reviewed, with the conclusion that significant radioactive contamination of a small country could lead to a severe national crisis. The most important factor is the socio-economic damage caused by stigma, which in turn is caused by a misunderstanding of the radiation risk. Given that nuclear power is an important choice in the face of the threat of climate change, the public's perceptions need to be changed at any cost, not only in those countries operating nuclear power plants but globally as well.

Characterization of a Novel Virus Causing a Lethal Disease in Carp and Koi

PubMed Central

Ilouze, Maya; Dishon, Arnon; Kotler, Moshe

2006-01-01

Since 1998 a lethal disease of carp and ornamental koi (Cyprinus carpio) has afflicted fisheries in North America, Europe, and Asia, causing severe economic losses to the fish farming industry. This review summarizes the isolation and identification of the disease-causing agent and describes the currently known molecular characteristics of this newly isolated virus, distinguishing it from other known large DNA viruses. In addition, we summarize the clinical and histopathological manifestations of the disease. Providing information on the immune response to this virus and evaluating the available means of diagnosis and protection should help to reduce the damage induced by this disease. This review does not discuss the economic aspects of the disease or the debate on whether the disease should be registered; both of these issues were recently reviewed in detail (O. L. M. Haenen, K. Way, S. M. Bergmann, and E. Ariel, Bull. Eur. Assoc. Fish Pathol. 24:293-307, 2004; D. Pokorova, T. Vesely, V. Piackova, S. Reschova, and J. Hulova, Vet. Med. Czech. 50:139-147, 2005). PMID:16524920

Quantifying the impacts of global disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, L. M.; Ross, S.; Wilson, R. I.; Borrero, J. C.; Brosnan, D.; Bwarie, J. T.; Geist, E. L.; Hansen, R. A.; Johnson, L. A.; Kirby, S. H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K. M.; Mortensen, C. E.; Perry, S. C.; Porter, K. A.; Real, C. R.; Ryan, K. J.; Thio, H. K.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

2012-12-01

The US Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, California Geological Survey, and other entities are developing a Tsunami Scenario, depicting a realistic outcome of a hypothetical but plausible large tsunami originating in the eastern Aleutian Arc, affecting the west coast of the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. The scenario includes earth-science effects, damage and restoration of the built environment, and social and economic impacts. Like the earlier ShakeOut and ARkStorm disaster scenarios, the purpose of the Tsunami Scenario is to apply science to quantify the impacts of natural disasters in a way that can be used by decision makers in the affected sectors to reduce the potential for loss. Most natural disasters are local. A major hurricane can destroy a city or damage a long swath of coastline while mostly sparing inland areas. The largest earthquake on record caused strong shaking along 1500 km of Chile, but left the capital relatively unscathed. Previous scenarios have used the local nature of disasters to focus interaction with the user community. However, the capacity for global disasters is growing with the interdependency of the global economy. Earthquakes have disrupted global computer chip manufacturing and caused stock market downturns. Tsunamis, however, can be global in their extent and direct impact. Moreover, the vulnerability of seaports to tsunami damage can increase the global consequences. The Tsunami Scenario is trying to capture the widespread effects while maintaining the close interaction with users that has been one of the most successful features of the previous scenarios. The scenario tsunami occurs in the eastern Aleutians with a source similar to the 2011 Tohoku event. Geologic similarities support the argument that a Tohoku-like source is plausible in Alaska. It creates a major nearfield tsunami in the Aleutian arc and peninsula, a moderate tsunami in the US Pacific Northwest, large but not the maximum in Hawaii, and the largest plausible tsunami in southern California. To support the analysis of global impacts, we begin with the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach which account for >40% of the imports to the United States. We expand from there throughout California for the first level economic analysis. We are looking to work with Alaska and Hawaii, especially on similar economic issues in ports, over the next year and to expand the analysis to consideration of economic interactions between the regions.

A discussion of the socio-economic losses and shelter impacts from the Van, Turkey Earthquakes of October and November 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, J. E.; Khazai, B.; Wenzel, F.; Kunz-Plapp, T.; Vervaeck, A.; Muehr, B.; Markus, M.

2012-04-01

The Van earthquake in 2011 hit at 10:41 GMT (13:41 Local) on Sunday, October 23rd, 2011. It was a Mw7.1-7.3 event located at a depth of around 10 km with the epicentre located directly between Ercis (pop. 75,000) and Van (pop. 370,000). Since then, the CEDIM Forensic Analysis Group (using a team of seismologists, engineers, sociologists and meteorologists) and www.earthquake-report.com has reported and analysed on the Van event. In addition, many damaging aftershocks occurring after the main eventwere analysed including a major aftershock centered in Van-Edremit on November 9th, 2011, causing much additional losses. The province of Van has around 1.035 million people as of the last census. The Van province is one of the poorest in Turkey and has much inequality between the rural and urban centers with an average HDI (Human Development Index) around that of Bhutan or Congo. The earthquakes are estimated to have caused 604 deaths (23 October) and 40 deaths (9 November); mostly due to falling debris and house collapse). In addition, between 1 billion TRY to 4 billion TRY (approx. 555 million USD - 2.2 billion USD) is estimated as total economic losses. This represents around 17 to 66% of the provincial GDP of the Van Province (approx. 3.3 billion USD) as of 2011. From the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database, major earthquakes such as this one have occurred in the year 1111 causing major damage and having a magnitude around 6.5-7. In the year 1646 or 1648, Van was again struck by a M6.7 quake killing around 2000 people. In 1881, a M6.3 earthquake near Van killed 95 people. Again, in 1941, a M5.9 earthquake affected Ercis and Van killing between 190 and 430 people. 1945-1946 as well as 1972 brought again damaging and casualty-bearing earthquakes to the Van province. In 1976, the Van-Muradiye earthquake struck the border region with a M7, killing around 3840 people and causing around 51,000 people to become homeless. Key immediate lessons from similar historic earthquakes in eastern Turkey were developed in terms of the mass shelter and post-earthquake housing needs of the displaced population of Van. This included an analysis of shelter and reconstruction requirements under winter weather conditions; community resourcefulness in coping with housing needs through indigenous methods; and issues with in-place sheltering versus relocation and resettlement. A summary of the losses and implications on the GDP, economic dynamics, capital stock, social structure shelter and housing needs of the region is discussed. In addition, a quick comparison to past similar earthquakes is undertaken through the use of CATDAT.

Economic damages of ozone air pollution to crops using combined air quality and GIS modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlachokostas, Ch.; Nastis, S. A.; Achillas, Ch.; Kalogeropoulos, K.; Karmiris, I.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Chourdakis, E.; Banias, G.; Limperi, N.

2010-09-01

This study aims at presenting a combined air quality and GIS modelling methodological approach in order to estimate crop damages from photochemical air pollution, depict their spatial resolution and assess the order of magnitude regarding the corresponding economic damages. The analysis is conducted within the Greater Thessaloniki Area, Greece, a Mediterranean territory which is characterised by high levels of photochemical air pollution and considerable agricultural activity. Ozone concentration fields for 2002 and for specific emission reduction scenarios for the year 2010 were estimated with the Ozone Fine Structure model in the area under consideration. Total economic damage to crops turns out to be significant and estimated to be approximately 43 M€ for the reference year. Production of cotton presents the highest economic loss, which is over 16 M€, followed by table tomato (9 M€), rice (4.2 M€), wheat (4 M€) and oilseed rape (2.8 M€) cultivations. Losses are not spread uniformly among farmers and the major losses occur in areas with valuable ozone-sensitive crops. The results are very useful for highlighting the magnitude of the total economic impacts of photochemical air pollution to the area's agricultural sector and can potentially be used for comparison with studies worldwide. Furthermore, spatial analysis of the economic damage could be of importance for governmental authorities and decision makers since it provides an indicative insight, especially if the economic instruments such as financial incentives or state subsidies to farmers are considered.

Flood Damage Analysis Within the Readiness Management System

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-11-01

criteria as nearly as possible while maintaining the economic detail desired for analysis. After the damage reach boundaries have been chosen, they are...1) Economic data for Urban Areas Economic input data generated using the GIS is shown in Appendix B Section 1. The original data file generated by...statted in section III, it is essential that the landuse classification, including all of the necessary economic data, be verified by a qualified

Hazardous Glaciers In Switzerland: A Statistical Analysis of Inventory Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raymond, M.; Funk, M.; Wegmann, M.

Because of the recent increase in both occupation and economical activities in high mountain areas, a systematic overview of potential hazard zones of glaciers is needed to avoid the constuction of settlements and infrastructures in endangered areas in fu- ture. Historical informations about glacier disasters show that catastrophic events can happen repeatedly for the same causes and with the same dramatic consequences. Past catastrophic events are not only useful to identify potentially dangerous glaciers, but represent an indication of the kind of glacier hazards to expect for any given glacier. An inventory containing all known events having caused damages in the past has been compiled for Switzerland. Three different types of glacier hazards are distinguished , e.g. ice avalanches, glacier floods and glacier length changes.Hazardous glaciers have been identified in the alpine cantons of Bern, Grison, Uri, Vaud and Valais so far. The inventory data were analysed in terms of periodicity of different types of events as well as of damage occured.

Engineering tendon and ligament tissues: present developments towards successful clinical products.

PubMed

Rodrigues, Márcia T; Reis, Rui L; Gomes, Manuela E

2013-09-01

Musculoskeletal diseases are one of the leading causes of disability worldwide. Among them, tendon and ligament injuries represent an important aspect to consider in both athletes and active working people. Tendon and ligament damage is an important cause of joint instability, and progresses into early onset of osteoarthritis, pain, disability and eventually the need for joint replacement surgery. The social and economical burden associated with these medical conditions presents a compelling argument for greater understanding and expanding research on this issue. The particular physiology of tendons and ligaments (avascular, hypocellular and overall structural mechanical features) makes it difficult for currently available treatments to reach a complete and long-term functional repair of the damaged tissue, especially when complete tear occurs. Despite the effort, the treatment modalities for tendon and ligament are suboptimal, which have led to the development of alternative therapies, such as the delivery of growth factors, development of engineered scaffolds or the application of stem cells, which have been approached in this review. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A new survey tool to assess pluvial damage to residential buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rözer, Viktor; Spekkers, Matthieu; ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire; Kreibich, Heidi

2017-04-01

Pluvial floods have caused severe damage to urban dwellings in Europe and elsewhere in recent years. These type of flood events are caused by storm events with exceptionally high rainfall rates, which lead to inundation of streets and buildings and are commonly associated with a failure of the urban drainage system. Therefore, pluvial floods often happen with little warning and in areas that are not obviously prone to flooding. With a predicted increase in extreme weather events as well as an ongoing urbanization, pluvial flood damage is expected to increase in the future. So far little research was done on the adverse consequences of pluvial floods, as empirical damage data of pluvial flooding is scarce. Therefore, a newly developed survey tool to assess pluvial flood damage as well as the results of a comparison between two international pluvial flood case studies are presented. The questionnaire used in the two study areas was developed with the aim to create a harmonized transnational pluvial flood damage survey that can potentially be extended to other European countries. New indicator variables have been developed to account for different national and regional standards in building structure, early warning, socio-economic data and recovery. The surveys comprise interviews with 510 households in the Münster area (Germany) and 349 households in Amsterdam (the Netherlands), which were affected by the heavy rainfall events on July 28 2014. The respondents were asked more than 80 questions about the damage to their building structure and contents, as well as on topics such as early warning, emergency and precautionary measures, building properties and hazard characteristics. A comparison of the two surveys revealed strong similarities concerning damage reducing effects and the popularity of precautionary measures, besides significant differences between the mean water levels inside the house as well as the median of the building structure and content damage. A comparison between the relative damage contributions for different entry points of water into the house indicates an effect of regional distinctions in building topology on the total damage. The results of this comparison give important insights for the development and transferability of pluvial flood damage models.

Genetic parameters for both a liver damage phenotype caused by and antibody response to phenotype in dairy and beef cattle.

PubMed

Twomey, A J; Sayers, R G; Carroll, R I; Byrne, N; Brien, E O'; Doherty, M L; McClure, J C; Graham, D A; Berry, D P

2016-10-01

is a helminth parasite of economic importance to the global cattle industry, with documented high international herd prevalence. The objective of the present study was to generate the first published genetic parameter estimates for liver damage caused by as well as antibody response to in cattle. Abattoir data on the presence of live , or -damaged livers, were available between the years 2012 and 2015, inclusive. A second data set was available on cows from 68 selected dairy herds with a blood ELISA test for antibody response to in autumn 2015. Animals were identified as exposed by using herd mate phenotype, and only exposed animals were retained for analysis. The abattoir data set consisted of 20,481 dairy cows and 75,041 young dairy and beef animals, whereas the study herd data set consisted of 6,912 dairy cows. (Co)variance components for phenotypes in both data sets were estimated using animal linear mixed models. Fixed effects included in the model for both data sets were contemporary group, heterosis coefficient, recombination loss coefficient, parity, age relative to parity/age group, and stage of lactation. An additional fixed effect of abattoir by date of slaughter was included in the model for the analysis of the abattoir data. Direct additive genetic effects and a residual effect were included as random effects for all analyses. After data edits, the prevalence of liver damage caused by in cows and young cattle was 47% and 20%, respectively. The prevalence of a positive antibody response to in cows from the study herd data was 36% after data edits. The heritability of as a binary trait for dairy cows in abattoir data and study herd data was 0.03 ± 0.01 and 0.09 ± 0.02, respectively; heritability in young cattle was 0.01 ± 0.005. The additive genetic SD of as a binary trait was 0.069 and 0.050 for cows and young cattle from the abattoir data, respectively, and 0.112 from the study herd cows. The genetic correlation between liver damage caused by in young cattle and cows from the abattoir data was 0.94 ± 0.312 and the genetic correlation between liver damage caused by in cows and positive antibody response to in cows in the study herd data was 0.37 ± 0.283.

Applications of ASFCM(Assessment System of Flood Control Measurement) in Typhoon Committee Members

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, C.

2013-12-01

Due to extreme weather environment such as global warming and greenhouse effect, the risks of having flood damage has been increased with larger scale of flood damages. Therefore, it became necessary to consider modifying climate change, flood damage and its scale to the previous dimension measurement evaluation system. In this regard, it is needed to establish a comprehensive and integrated system to evaluate the most optimized measures for flood control through eliminating uncertainties of socio-economic impacts. Assessment System of Structural Flood Control Measures (ASFCM) was developed for determining investment priorities of the flood control measures and establishing the social infrastructure projects. ASFCM consists of three modules: 1) the initial setup and inputs module, 2) the flood and damage estimation module, and 3) the socio-economic analysis module. First, we have to construct the D/B for flood damage estimation, which is the initial and input data about the estimation unit, property, historical flood damages, and applied area's topographic & hydrological data. After that, it is important to classify local characteristic for constructing flood damage data. Five local characteristics (big city, medium size city, small city, farming area, and mountain area) are classified by criterion of application (population density). Next step is the floodplain simulation with HEC-RAS which is selected to simulate inundation. Through inputting the D/B and damage estimation, it is able to estimate the total damage (only direct damage) that is the amount of cost to recover the socio-economic activities back to the safe level before flood did occur. The last module suggests the economic analysis index (B/C ratio) with Multidimensional Flood Damage Analysis. Consequently, ASFCM suggests the reference index in constructing flood control measures and planning non-structural systems to reduce water-related damage. It is possible to encourage flood control planners and managers to consider and apply the socio-economic analysis results. ASFCM was applied in Republic of Korea, Thailand and Philippines to review efficiency and applicability. Figure 1. ASFCM Application(An-yang Stream, Republic of Korea)

Economic impacts of the SAFRR tsunami scenario in California: Chapter H in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wein, Anne; Rose, Adam; Sue Wing, Ian; Wei, Dan

2013-01-01

This study evaluates the hypothetical economic impacts of the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario to the California economy. The SAFRR scenario simulates a tsunami generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake that occurs offshore of the Alaska Peninsula (Kirby and others, 2013). Economic impacts are measured by the estimated reduction in California’s gross domestic product (GDP), the standard economic measure of the total value of goods and services produced. Economic impacts are derived from the physical damages from the tsunami as described by Porter and others (2013). The principal physical damages that result in disruption of the California economy are (1) about $100 million in damages to the twin Ports of Los Angeles (POLA) and Long Beach (POLB), (2) about $700 million in damages to marinas, and (3) about $2.5 billion in damages to buildings and contents (properties) in the tsunami inundation zone on the California coast. The study of economic impacts does not include the impacts from damages to roads, bridges, railroads, and agricultural production or fires in fuel storage facilities because these damages will be minimal with respect to the California economy. The economic impacts of damage to other California ports are not included in this study because detailed evaluation of the physical damage to these ports was not available in time for this report. The analysis of economic impacts is accomplished in several steps. First, estimates are made for the direct economic impacts that result in immediate business interruption losses in individual sectors of the economy due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of the flow of production units (commodities necessary for production). Second, the total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by including the general equilibrium (essentially quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors by ripple effects upstream and downstream along the supply chain. An appropriate measure of the economic impacts on the California economy for the SAFRR tsunami scenario is the reduction in GDP. The economic impacts are first calculated without resilience, the ability of the economy to adjust to disruptions in ways that mute potential negative impacts. There are many types of resilience, including using existing inventories of materials, using unused capacity, conserving inputs, substituting for disrupted supplies, recapturing production after the disruption is restored, and many others. A method for estimating resilience, identified in the port system and sectors affected by property damages, is applied to indicate potential reductions of direct and total economic impacts. In this SAFRR tsunami scenario analysis of economic impacts to California, we implement established techniques used to model the economic impacts for two previous U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scenarios: the southern California Shakeout earthquake (Rose and others, 2011) and the California ARkStorm severe winter storm (Sue Wing and others, written commun., 2013). For the SAFRR tsunami scenario, we reviewed the relevant studies that assess economic impacts from previous tsunami events affecting California and elsewhere and estimate the economic impacts of potential tsunami and other threats to POLA and POLB. To our knowledge, assessment of impacts to the California economy from distant source tsunamis does not exist. Previous tsunamis, including those from the 1960 Chile earthquake, the 1964 Alaska earthquake, the 2008 Chile earthquake and the 2011 Japan earthquake, had only relatively minor or very localized severe damage (such as that in Crescent City in 1964), and no studies of the economic impacts were completed. A rare study of the economic impacts of a tsunami event has recently been produced for the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami (Kajitani and others, 2013). Quarterly declines in Japan’s GDP are observed to peak at ‒1.63 percent in the second quarter after the event and stagnate for the rest of the year. The majority of the economic impacts are attributed to the tsunami rather than the earthquake. The hardest hit sectors are identified as agriculture, fisheries, manufacturing, retail, and tourism. Other relevant studies have focused on the economic impacts of threats that close POLA and POLB. We find one analysis of a potential tsunami scenario affecting the California economy through disruption of port operations. Borrero and others (2005) estimated economic impacts to the southern California economy of $7 to $40 billion from a locally generated tsunami that closes POLA and POLB for as much as 1 year. There have also been several studies of the economic impacts of non-tsunami events affecting POLA and POLB. Analyses of an 11-day labor lockout produced a range of estimated national impacts of as much as $1.94 billion/day (Park and others 2008, Martin Associates 2001). Examination of a potential terrorist attack that closes the San Pedro port for 1 month yielded a $29 billion impact to the California economy (Park, 2008). These studies have reinforced the importance of recognizing economic resilience in economic impact analyses. Hall (2004) criticized the upper-end estimate of national economic impacts from the labor lockout based on model shortcomings that neglected short-run substitution behavior and fixed the long-run economic behaviors. Following the 2011 Japanese tsunami, resilience was observed in the forms of rapid recovery of manufacturing sectors, energy conservation, and insurance (Kajitani and others, 2013).

Aggregation Patterns, Sampling Plan, and Economic Injury Levels for the New Citrus Pest Delottococcus aberiae (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae).

PubMed

Pérez-Rodríguez, J; Martínez-Blay, V; Soto, A; Selfa, J; Monzó, C; Urbaneja, A; Tena, A

2017-12-05

Delottococcus aberiae De Lotto (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) is the latest exotic mealybug species introduced in citrus in the Mediterranean basin. It causes severe distortion and size reduction on developing fruits. Due to its first interaction with citrus, D. aberiae economic thresholds are still unknown for this crop and the current Integrated Pest Management programs have been disrupted. The objectives of this study were to determine the aggregation patterns of D. aberiae in citrus, develop an efficient sampling plan to assess its population density, and calculate its Economic and Economic Environmental Injury Levels (EIL and EEIL, respectively). Twelve and 19 orchards were sampled in 2014 and 2015, respectively. At each orchard, population densities were monitored fortnightly in leaves, twigs, and fruit, and fruit damage was determined at harvest. Our results showed a clumped aggregation of D. aberiae in all organs with no significant differences between generations on fruit. Fruit damage at harvest was strongly correlated with fruit occupation in spring. Based on these results and using chlorpyrifos as the insecticide of reference, the EIL and EEIL were calculated as 7.1 and 12.1% of occupied fruit in spring, respectively. With all this, we recommend sampling 275 fruits using a binomial sampling method or alternatively, 140 fruits with an enumerative method bimonthly between petal fall and July. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Economic Impact of Food Safety Outbreaks on Food Businesses

PubMed Central

Hussain, Malik Altaf; Dawson, Christopher O.

2013-01-01

A globalized food trade, extensive production and complex supply chains are contributing toward an increased number of microbiological food safety outbreaks. Moreover, the volume of international food trade has increased to become very large. All of these factors are putting pressure on the food companies to meet global demand in order to be competitive. This scenario could force manufacturers to be lenient toward food safety control intentionally, or unintentionally, and result in a major foodborne outbreak that causes health problems and economic loss. The estimated cost of food safety incidents for the economy of the United States is around $7 billion per year which comes from notifying consumers, removing food from shelves, and paying damages as a result of lawsuits. Most other countries similarly have economic losses. Much of these losses represent lost markets, loss of consumer demand, litigation and company closures. Concrete steps are needed to improve safety of foods produced for local or overseas markets to avoid unexpected food scandals and economic losses. PMID:28239140

Hurricane Sandy Economic Impacts Assessment: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach and Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boero, Riccardo; Edwards, Brian Keith

Economists use computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to assess how economies react and self-organize after changes in policies, technology, and other exogenous shocks. CGE models are equation-based, empirically calibrated, and inspired by Neoclassical economic theory. The focus of this work was to validate the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) CGE model and apply it to the problem of assessing the economic impacts of severe events. We used the 2012 Hurricane Sandy event as our validation case. In particular, this work first introduces the model and then describes the validation approach and the empirical data available for studying themore » event of focus. Shocks to the model are then formalized and applied. Finally, model results and limitations are presented and discussed, pointing out both the model degree of accuracy and the assessed total damage caused by Hurricane Sandy.« less

When Weather Matters: Science and Service to Meet Critical Societal Needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2010-01-01

The goal of weather prediction is to provide information people and organizations can use to reduce weather-related losses and enhance societal benefits, including protection of life and property, public health and safety, and support of economic prosperity and quality of life. In economic terms, the benefit of the investment in public weather forecasts and warnings is substantial: the estimated annualized benefit is about $31.5 billion, compared to the $5.1 billion cost of generating the information. Between 1980 and 2009, 96 weather disasters in the United States each caused at least $1 billion in damages, with total losses exceeding $700 billion. Between 1999 and 2008, there were an average of 629 direct weather fatalities per year. The annual impacts of adverse weather on the national highway system and roads are staggering: 1.5 million weather-related crashes with 7,400 deaths, more than 700,000 injuries, and $42 billion in economic losses.

A global framework for future costs and benefits of river-flood protection in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Bates, Paul D.; Botzen, Wouter J. W.; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kind, Jarl M.; Kwadijk, Jaap; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.

2017-09-01

Floods cause billions of dollars of damage each year, and flood risks are expected to increase due to socio-economic development, subsidence, and climate change. Implementing additional flood risk management measures can limit losses, protecting people and livelihoods. Whilst several models have been developed to assess global-scale river-flood risk, methods for evaluating flood risk management investments globally are lacking. Here, we present a framework for assessing costs and benefits of structural flood protection measures in urban areas around the world. We demonstrate its use under different assumptions of current and future climate change and socio-economic development. Under these assumptions, investments in dykes may be economically attractive for reducing risk in large parts of the world, but not everywhere. In some regions, economically efficient investments could reduce future flood risk below today’s levels, in spite of climate change and economic growth. We also demonstrate the sensitivity of the results to different assumptions and parameters. The framework can be used to identify regions where river-flood protection investments should be prioritized, or where other risk-reducing strategies should be emphasized.

Does it make sense to modify tropical cyclones? A decision-analytic assessment.

PubMed

Klima, Kelly; Morgan, M Granger; Grossmann, Iris; Emanuel, Kerry

2011-05-15

Recent dramatic increases in damages caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) and improved understanding of TC physics have led DHS to fund research on intentional hurricane modification. We present a decision analytic assessment of whether it is potentially cost-effective to attempt to lower the wind speed of TCs approaching South Florida by reducing sea surface temperatures with wind-wave pumps. Using historical data on hurricanes approaching South Florida, we develop prior probabilities of how storms might evolve. The effects of modification are estimated using a modern TC model. The FEMA HAZUS-MH MR3 damage model and census data on the value of property at risk are used to estimate expected economic losses. We compare wind damages after storm modification with damages after implementing hardening strategies protecting buildings. We find that if it were feasible and properly implemented, modification could reduce net losses from an intense storm more than hardening structures. However, hardening provides "fail safe" protection for average storms that might not be achieved if the only option were modification. The effect of natural variability is larger than that of either strategy. Damage from storm surge is modest in the scenario studied but might be abated by modification.

Economic Analysis for an F-22 Organic vs. Contractor Aircraft Battle Damage Repair Ownership Decision

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-09-01

cost . That is, a change in the cost driver will cause a change in the total cost of a related cost object. ( Horngren , et al., 1994) Cost Object...Anything for which a separate measurement of costs is desired. ( Horngren , et al., 1994) 48 Fixed Cost Cost that does not change in total despite changes...in a cost driver. ( Horngren , et al., 1994) Incremental Cost The difference in total cost between two alternatives. Also called

Scaling future tropical cyclone damage with global mean temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geiger, T.; Bresch, D.; Frieler, K.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the most damaging natural hazards and severely affectmany countries around the globe each year. Their nominal impact is projected to increasesubstantially as the exposed coastal population grows, per capita income increases, andanthropogenic climate change manifests. The magnitude of this increase, however, variesacross regions and is obscured by the stochastic behaviour of TCs, so far impeding arigorous quantification of trends in TC damage with global mean temperature (GMT) rise. Here, we build on the large sample of spatially explicit TCs simulations generated withinISIMIP(2b) for 1) pre-industrial conditions, 2) the historical period, and 3) future projectionsunder RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 to estimate future TC damage assuming fixed present-daysocio-economic conditions or SSP-based future projections of population patterns andincome. Damage estimates will be based on region-specific empirical damage modelsderived from reported damages and accounting for regional characteristics of vulnerability.Different combinations of 1) socio-economic drivers with pre-industrial climate or 2) changingclimate with fixed socio-economic conditions will be used to derive functional relationshipsbetween regionally aggregated changes in damages on one hand and global meantemperature and socio-economic predictors on the other hand. The obtained region-specific scaling of future TC damage with GMT provides valuable inputfor IPCC's special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C by quantifying theincremental changes in impact with global warming. The approach allows for an update ofdamage functions used in integrated assessment models, and contributes to assessing theadequateness of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Disaster Impacts on Human Capital Accumulation Shown in the Typhoon Haiyan Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Özceylan Aubrecht, Dilek; Aubrecht, Christoph

2014-05-01

School children and their school environment are increasingly exposed to all kinds of hazards. Many disaster events have shown the extent of disaster impacts on the education sector which this study also highlights in the Typhoon Haiyan Case. Disasters do not only cause loss of lives or damage to educational facilities, they also entail significant economic and social consequences on human capital development in the short and long-run. While the trend of short term disaster impact can easily be analyzed in rapid post disaster assessments taking destroyed assets as proxy, usually analyses of medium and long-term effects of disasters include large inherent uncertainties and are of less tangible nature, require more time and complex methods and can often not give comprehensive results. The consequences of disasters especially in developing countries are therefore to a certain extent often left unknown. Generally, economic and social effects of disasters on human capital seem to be ambiguous and to some degree these effects are related to economic, social and institutional well-being. Thus, clear understanding is crucial to interpret its complex effects on human capital accumulation. This essential nature of medium and long-term effects has not been reflected in many analyses. Focus has mostly been given on the extent of physical damage, displacements, lives and assets lost instead of targeting resilience of social and economic characteristics of communities in terms of preventing human capital accumulation disruption. Main objective of this study is to provide a conceptual framework illustrating the impacts of disasters on schooling which might help in assessing such effects, as one of the fundamental components of human capital accumulation (Ozceylan Aubrecht, 2013). The dimensions of human capital building and its relationship to disasters under the light of past disaster events are discussed with a special focus on the recent Typhoon Haiyan that struck the Philippines in November 2013. Natural disasters adversely affect human capital accumulation in several ways including loss of life, damage to the educational system, decreased educational quality, increased child labor, and associated high dropout rates. Another dimension closely related to the human capital is the reduced economic strength of families that can limit the expenditures on well-being, including education, health and food (child malnutrition) (Baez et al., 2010; Cuaresma, 2010). According to information provided by UN and international media approximately 6 million children were affected by Typhoon Haiyan with 1.4 million homes of children and their families destroyed and 1.8 million children displaced. About 90% of the school buildings in the affected region were damaged and schools therefore stayed closed for up to 2 months causing disruption for more than a million pupils and 34,000 teachers. In some areas, when school returned to operation, only half of the school kids reported back. Also for the other pupils the situation was still challenging with many of the prior basic educational resources affected (destroyed textbooks and learning material, damaged classrooms) and no own equipment available (books, pens, etc.). Those reported impacts have already interrupted the educational continuity and it is expected to further continue by adversely affecting human capital accumulation in the longer term. Part of this work has been done under the Global Program for Safer Schools (GPSS) carried out at the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). References: Baez, J., A. de la Fuente, and I. Carlos, 2010. Do Natural Disasters Affect Human Capital? An Assessment Based on Existing Empirical Evidence. IZA Discussion Paper Series: 5164. Cuaresma, J., 2010. Natural Disasters and Human Capital Accumulation. World Bank Economic Review 24(2): 280-302. Ozceylan Aubrecht, D., 2013. Economic Impact of Disasters on the Education Sector. Global Program for Safer Schools (GPSS), GFDRR & The World Bank, Working Paper, Washington DC, August 2013, 30 pp.

Inhibitory effect and possible mechanism of a Pseudomonas strain QBA5 against gray mold on tomato leaves and fruits caused by Botrytis cinerea

PubMed Central

Gao, Pan; Qin, Jiaxing; Li, Delong

2018-01-01

The fungal pathogen Botrytis cinerea causes gray mold disease on various hosts, which results in serious economic losses. Over the past several decades, many kinds of fungicides have been used to successfully control the disease. Meanwhile, the uses of fungicides lead to environmental pollution as well as a potential threat to the human health by the chemical residues in tomato fruit. Also, the gray mold disease is difficult to control with fungicides. Therefore, exploring alternative measures such as biological controls could be the best choice to control the disease and alleviate damages caused by fungicides. In this study, we isolated and identified a novel Pseudomonas strain termed as QBA5 from healthy tomato plant based on the morphological, biochemical characteristics and molecular detection. The antifungal activity assays revealed that, in the presence of QBA5, conidia germination, germ tube elongation and mycelial growth of B. cinerea were significantly inhibited. Most importantly, QBA5 exerted a significant preventive effectiveness against gray mold on tomato fruits and plants. The possible mechanism of QBA5 involved in the inhibition of B. cinerea was investigated. It revealed that the conidia plasma membrane of B. cinerea was severely damaged by QBA5. Further, four different antifungal compounds in the supernatant of QBA5 were separated by preparative high performance liquid chromatography (PHPLC). Overall, the data indicate that there is a considerable potential for QBA5 to reduce the damage caused by gray mold disease on tomato. PMID:29320571

Inhibitory effect and possible mechanism of a Pseudomonas strain QBA5 against gray mold on tomato leaves and fruits caused by Botrytis cinerea.

PubMed

Gao, Pan; Qin, Jiaxing; Li, Delong; Zhou, Shanyue

2018-01-01

The fungal pathogen Botrytis cinerea causes gray mold disease on various hosts, which results in serious economic losses. Over the past several decades, many kinds of fungicides have been used to successfully control the disease. Meanwhile, the uses of fungicides lead to environmental pollution as well as a potential threat to the human health by the chemical residues in tomato fruit. Also, the gray mold disease is difficult to control with fungicides. Therefore, exploring alternative measures such as biological controls could be the best choice to control the disease and alleviate damages caused by fungicides. In this study, we isolated and identified a novel Pseudomonas strain termed as QBA5 from healthy tomato plant based on the morphological, biochemical characteristics and molecular detection. The antifungal activity assays revealed that, in the presence of QBA5, conidia germination, germ tube elongation and mycelial growth of B. cinerea were significantly inhibited. Most importantly, QBA5 exerted a significant preventive effectiveness against gray mold on tomato fruits and plants. The possible mechanism of QBA5 involved in the inhibition of B. cinerea was investigated. It revealed that the conidia plasma membrane of B. cinerea was severely damaged by QBA5. Further, four different antifungal compounds in the supernatant of QBA5 were separated by preparative high performance liquid chromatography (PHPLC). Overall, the data indicate that there is a considerable potential for QBA5 to reduce the damage caused by gray mold disease on tomato.

NO x emissions from large point sources: variability in ozone production, resulting health damages and economic costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauzerall, Denise L.; Sultan, Babar; Kim, Namsoug; Bradford, David F.

We present a proof-of-concept analysis of the measurement of the health damage of ozone (O 3) produced from nitrogen oxides (NO=NO+NO) emitted by individual large point sources in the eastern United States. We use a regional atmospheric model of the eastern United States, the Comprehensive Air quality Model with Extensions (CAMx), to quantify the variable impact that a fixed quantity of NO x emitted from individual sources can have on the downwind concentration of surface O 3, depending on temperature and local biogenic hydrocarbon emissions. We also examine the dependence of resulting O 3-related health damages on the size of the exposed population. The investigation is relevant to the increasingly widely used "cap and trade" approach to NO x regulation, which presumes that shifts of emissions over time and space, holding the total fixed over the course of the summer O 3 season, will have minimal effect on the environmental outcome. By contrast, we show that a shift of a unit of NO x emissions from one place or time to another could result in large changes in resulting health effects due to O 3 formation and exposure. We indicate how the type of modeling carried out here might be used to attach externality-correcting prices to emissions. Charging emitters fees that are commensurate with the damage caused by their NO x emissions would create an incentive for emitters to reduce emissions at times and in locations where they cause the largest damage.

Methodology of ecooriented assessment of constructive schemes of cast in-situ RC framework in civil engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avilova, I. P.; Krutilova, M. O.

2018-01-01

Economic growth is the main determinant of the trend to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. Therefore, the reduction of emission and stabilization of GHG levels in the atmosphere become an urgent task to avoid the worst predicted consequences of climate change. GHG emissions in construction industry take a significant part of industrial GHG emission and are expected to consistently increase. The problem could be successfully solved with a help of both economical and organizational restrictions, based on enhanced algorithms of calculation and amercement of environmental harm in building industry. This study aims to quantify of GHG emission caused by different constructive schemes of RC framework in concrete casting. The result shows that proposed methodology allows to make a comparative analysis of alternative projects in residential housing, taking into account an environmental damage, caused by construction process. The study was carried out in the framework of the Program of flagship university development on the base of Belgorod State Technological University named after V.G. Shoukhov

Economic consequences of earthquakes: bridging research and practice with HayWired

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wein, A. M.; Kroll, C.

2016-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey partners with organizations and experts to develop multiple hazard scenarios. The HayWired earthquake scenario refers to a rupture of the Hayward fault in the Bay Area of California and addresses the potential chaos related to interconnectedness at many levels: the fault afterslip and aftershocks, interdependencies of lifelines, wired/wireless technology, communities at risk, and ripple effects throughout today's digital economy. The scenario is intended for diverse audiences. HayWired analyses translate earthquake hazards (surface rupture, ground shaking, liquefaction, landslides) into physical engineering and environmental health impacts, and into societal consequences. Damages to life and property and lifeline service disruptions are direct causes of business interruption. Economic models are used to estimate the economic impacts and resilience in the regional economy. The objective of the economic analysis is to inform policy discourse about economic resilience at all three levels of the economy: macro, meso, and micro. Stakeholders include businesses, economic development, and community leaders. Previous scenario analyses indicate the size of an event: large earthquakes and large winter storms are both "big ones" for California. They motivate actions to reduce the losses from fire following earthquake and water supply outages. They show the effect that resilience can have on reducing economic losses. Evaluators find that stakeholders learned the most about the economic consequences.

Economic development and coastal ecosystem change in China

PubMed Central

He, Qiang; Bertness, Mark D.; Bruno, John F.; Li, Bo; Chen, Guoqian; Coverdale, Tyler C.; Altieri, Andrew H.; Bai, Junhong; Sun, Tao; Pennings, Steven C.; Liu, Jianguo; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Cui, Baoshan

2014-01-01

Despite their value, coastal ecosystems are globally threatened by anthropogenic impacts, yet how these impacts are driven by economic development is not well understood. We compiled a multifaceted dataset to quantify coastal trends and examine the role of economic growth in China's coastal degradation since the 1950s. Although China's coastal population growth did not change following the 1978 economic reforms, its coastal economy increased by orders of magnitude. All 15 coastal human impacts examined increased over time, especially after the reforms. Econometric analysis revealed positive relationships between most impacts and GDP across temporal and spatial scales, often lacking dropping thresholds. These relationships generally held when influences of population growth were addressed by analyzing per capita impacts, and when population density was included as explanatory variables. Historical trends in physical and biotic indicators showed that China's coastal ecosystems changed little or slowly between the 1950s and 1978, but have degraded at accelerated rates since 1978. Thus economic growth has been the cause of accelerating human damage to China's coastal ecosystems. China's GDP per capita remains very low. Without strict conservation efforts, continuing economic growth will further degrade China's coastal ecosystems. PMID:25104138

An Introduction to Medical Malpractice in the United States

PubMed Central

2008-01-01

Medical malpractice law in the United States is derived from English common law, and was developed by rulings in various state courts. Medical malpractice lawsuits are a relatively common occurrence in the United States. The legal system is designed to encourage extensive discovery and negotiations between adversarial parties with the goal of resolving the dispute without going to jury trial. The injured patient must show that the physician acted negligently in rendering care, and that such negligence resulted in injury. To do so, four legal elements must be proven: (1) a professional duty owed to the patient; (2) breach of such duty; (3) injury caused by the breach; and (4) resulting damages. Money damages, if awarded, typically take into account both actual economic loss and noneconomic loss, such as pain and suffering. PMID:19034593

An introduction to medical malpractice in the United States.

PubMed

Bal, B Sonny

2009-02-01

Medical malpractice law in the United States is derived from English common law, and was developed by rulings in various state courts. Medical malpractice lawsuits are a relatively common occurrence in the United States. The legal system is designed to encourage extensive discovery and negotiations between adversarial parties with the goal of resolving the dispute without going to jury trial. The injured patient must show that the physician acted negligently in rendering care, and that such negligence resulted in injury. To do so, four legal elements must be proven: (1) a professional duty owed to the patient; (2) breach of such duty; (3) injury caused by the breach; and (4) resulting damages. Money damages, if awarded, typically take into account both actual economic loss and noneconomic loss, such as pain and suffering.

Damage from the El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake, April 2010: Why society cannot afford to ignore seismic risks to agricultural regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenner, H. D.; Mathieson, E. L.; Okubo, S.; Anderson, R.; Rodriguez C., M. A.

2010-12-01

The M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake of April 4, 2010 in Mexico’s Baja California caused extensive damage to the agricultural area of Mexicali Valley. The damage included wide-spread liquefaction and lateral spreading which destroyed or damaged irrigation canals. Without water, wheat, alfalfa, and other crops were lost. Fields were cut by fissures and partially buried by massive sand blows. Regional tilting from the earthquake was a serious issue for the gravity-controlled irrigation system. Ruptured canals and groundwater from sand blows flooded fields, roads, and towns. Flooding further damaged crops and brought contamination with it. Fissures and scarps through farm communities cracked buildings; ruptured water, sewer, and other pipelines; and made roads temporarily difficult to pass. Economically, farmers, seasonal farm workers, and agricultural suppliers were affected; reducing their ability to consume the goods and services of businesses unrelated to agriculture. Similar damage was observed in earlier earthquakes over the past 100 years. Society quickly forgets how the earth responds to strong shaking. We hope to provide a vivid portrait of this agricultural disaster so that other farming communities prone to strong seismic shaking may visualize what can happen from their own inevitable future earthquake. Fissure and sand blows southeast of Cucapah, Baja California, April 16, 2010. Heavily damaged irrigation canal northwest of Zacamoto, Baja California, April 15, 2010.

Lessons learned from the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake: Impact on industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krausmann, E.; Cruz, A. M.; Affeltranger, B.

2009-04-01

The earthquake that shook Wenchuan County in China's Sichuan Province on 12 May 2008 was a major event with a moment magnitude of MW = 7.9 and a depth of only 19 km. It caused a fault rupture of 270 km length and affected a total area of about 500,000 km2. With the intensity reaching XI in the region near the epicentre and peak ground acceleration values as high as 0.63g the earthquake killed almost 70,000 people, injured over 374,000 and rendered 5,000,000 homeless. Over 18,000 are still listed as missing. Prior to the earthquake the area was considered a region of moderate seismicity with a design intensity of 7. Sichuan Province is home to a significant proportion of Chinese chemical and nuclear industry and consequently has a very strong economy. The direct economic loss due to the earthquake amounts to over 1.1 billion Euros. In addition to economic damage there is also concern about earthquake-triggered damage to and destruction of industrial facilities housing or processing hazardous substances and the potential consequences of their release to man or the environment. In order to understand how well the chemical industry fared in the earthquake-affected areas a reconnaissance field trip was organised from 15-21 November, 2008, which included visits to industry in Deyang, Shifang, Mianzhu, Mianyang, Anxian and Dujiangyan. In total we collected information on earthquake effects at 18 industrial facilities. Lessons learned from this reconnaissance field trip confirm the devastating consequences that natural disasters can have on industrial facilities. In addition to casualties and environmental harm the economic losses due to damage, prolonged shut-down periods and business interruption are often ruinous and may result in lay-off of workers. In the case of the visited facilities the shut-down time was up to 6 months. Two facilities were damaged beyond repair and have resulted in significant ammonia, sulphuric acid and other releases that in addition to polluting a river also necessitated the evacuation of 6,000 residents. The main cause of worker death and injury was the collapse of warehouses, office and manufacturing buildings. This concerned mostly concrete structures with insufficient confinement or poor reinforcement that could not withstand the earthquake loads. The falling debris resulted in equipment damage and loss, as well as pipe severing and crushing in buildings housing machinery. This was brought about either by direct debris impact or by support failure inside buildings. Pipes were also severed, bent or crushed outside of structures when connected tanks were displaced or buildings collapsed, although in many cases anchoring proved to be effective in avoiding displacement. Pipe support concrete columns in the open generally performed well. In some sites soil-liquefaction induced damage was evident, highlighting the need to consider potential site effects when selecting the location for a facility.

The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, J. E.; Khazai, B.; Wenzel, F.; Vervaeck, A.

2011-08-01

The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture) database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes. Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon. Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected), and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured). Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto (214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index), and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons. This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global reinsurance field.

Are we preventing flood damage eco-efficiently? An integrated method applied to post-disaster emergency actions.

PubMed

Petit-Boix, Anna; Arahuetes, Ana; Josa, Alejandro; Rieradevall, Joan; Gabarrell, Xavier

2017-02-15

Flood damage results in economic and environmental losses in the society, but flood prevention also entails an initial investment in infrastructure. This study presents an integrated eco-efficiency approach for assessing flood prevention and avoided damage. We focused on ephemeral streams in the Maresme region (Catalonia, Spain), which is an urbanized area affected by damaging torrential events. Our goal was to determine the feasibility of post-disaster emergency actions implemented after a major event through an integrated hydrologic, environmental and economic approach. Life cycle assessment (LCA) and costing (LCC) were used to determine the eco-efficiency of these actions, and their net impact and payback were calculated by integrating avoided flood damage. Results showed that the actions effectively reduced damage generation when compared to the registered water flows and rainfall intensities. The eco-efficiency of the emergency actions resulted in 1.2kgCO 2 eq. per invested euro. When integrating the avoided damage into the initial investment, negative net impacts were obtained (e.g., -5.2E+05€ and -2.9E+04kgCO 2 eq. per event), which suggests that these interventions contributed with environmental and economic benefits to the society. The economic investment was recovered in two years, whereas the design could be improved to reduce their environmental footprint, which is recovered in 25years. Our method and results highlight the effects of integrating the environmental and economic consequences of decisions at an urban scale and might help the administration and insurance companies in the design of prevention plans and climate change adaptation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Observations and Modeling of Environmental and Human Damages by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goto, K.; Imamura, F.; Koshimura, S.; Yanagisawa, H.

2008-05-01

On 26 December 2004, one of the largest tsunamis in human history (the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami) struck coastal areas of countries surrounding the Indian Ocean, causing severe property damage and loss of life and causing us to think anew about the fearful consequences of a tsunami disaster. The tsunami devastated more than 10 countries around the ocean including Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, and Thailand. Since its energy remains almost constant, the tsunami wave height grows tremendously in shallow water. It ranged in runups of ~48m on the western shore of Sumatra, ~18m in Thailand, and ~15m in Sri Lanka. The tsunami killed nearly 230,000 people, including visitors from foreign countries, resulting in great economic losses. The tsunami was also affected coastal environment at these countries and induced severe topographic change, and damages to the marine ecosystems as well as vegetations on land. Immediately following the tsunami, number of research teams has investigated damages of environment and human communities by tsunamis. Numerical analyses of tsunami propagation have also been carried out to understand the behavior and wave properties of tsunamis. However, there are few studies that focused on the integration of the field observations and numerical results, nevertheless that such analysis is critically important to evaluate the environmental and human damages by the tsunami. In this contribution, we first review damages to the environment and humans due to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami at Thailand, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka based on our field observations, and then we evaluate these damages based on high resolution numerical results. For example, we conducted field observation as well as high-resolution (17 m grid cells) numerical calculation for damages of corals (reef rocks) and mangroves at Pakarang Cape, Thailand. We found that hundreds of reef rocks were emplaced on the tidal bench, and 70 % of mangroves were destroyed at the cape. Our numerical results further clarified that these damages are well explained by the calculated hydraulic force of tsunamis. This kind of analysis that integrated the observation and numerical results is important to evaluate environmental and human damages quantitatively, and to make a future disaster prevention plan.

Tourism and its hypersensitivity to oil spills.

PubMed

Cirer-Costa, Joan Carles

2015-02-15

The sinking of the Don Pedro merchant ship in 2007 near the island of Ibiza is a good example of the extreme sensitivity of the tourism sector to oil spills. Despite the limited scale of the spill (only some 20 tonnes), its minimal ecological impact, and the rapid deployment of personnel and equipment to contain it, the accident nonetheless caused significant economic damage to the island's tourism sector. This particular case demonstrates the importance of the beach as a factor of production in the holiday tourism sector, and the capacity of even small amounts of oil to render it unusable and cause heavy losses to holiday firms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The health care reform in Mexico: before and after the 1985 earthquakes.

PubMed Central

Soberón, G; Frenk, J; Sepúlveda, J

1986-01-01

The earthquakes that hit Mexico City in September 1985 caused considerable damage both to the population and to important medical facilities. The disaster took place while the country was undertaking a profound reform of its health care system. This reform had introduced a new principle for allocating and distributing the benefits of health care, namely, the principle of citizenship. Operationally, the reform includes an effort to decentralize the decision-making authority, to modernize the administration, to achieve greater coordination within the health sector and among sectors, and to extend coverage to the entire population through an ambitious primary care program. This paper examines the health context in which the reform was taking place when the September earthquakes hit. After presenting the damages caused by the quakes, the paper analyzes the characteristics of the immediate response by the health system. Since many facilities within the system were severely damaged, a series of options for reconstruction are posited. The main lesson to be learned from the Mexican case is that cuts in health care programs are not the inevitable response to economic or natural crises. On the contrary, it is precisely when the majority of the population is undergoing difficulties that a universal and equitable health system becomes most necessary. PMID:3706595

The health care reform in Mexico: before and after the 1985 earthquakes.

PubMed

Soberón, G; Frenk, J; Sepúlveda, J

1986-06-01

The earthquakes that hit Mexico City in September 1985 caused considerable damage both to the population and to important medical facilities. The disaster took place while the country was undertaking a profound reform of its health care system. This reform had introduced a new principle for allocating and distributing the benefits of health care, namely, the principle of citizenship. Operationally, the reform includes an effort to decentralize the decision-making authority, to modernize the administration, to achieve greater coordination within the health sector and among sectors, and to extend coverage to the entire population through an ambitious primary care program. This paper examines the health context in which the reform was taking place when the September earthquakes hit. After presenting the damages caused by the quakes, the paper analyzes the characteristics of the immediate response by the health system. Since many facilities within the system were severely damaged, a series of options for reconstruction are posited. The main lesson to be learned from the Mexican case is that cuts in health care programs are not the inevitable response to economic or natural crises. On the contrary, it is precisely when the majority of the population is undergoing difficulties that a universal and equitable health system becomes most necessary.

Operational Forecasting and Warning systems for Coastal hazards in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Kwang-Soon; Kwon, Jae-Il; Kim, Jin-Ah; Heo, Ki-Young; Jun, Kicheon

2017-04-01

Coastal hazards caused by both Mother Nature and humans cost tremendous social, economic and environmental damages. To mitigate these damages many countries have been running the operational forecasting or warning systems. Since 2009 Korea Operational Oceanographic System (KOOS) has been developed by the leading of Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST) in Korea and KOOS has been operated in 2012. KOOS is consists of several operational modules of numerical models and real-time observations and produces the basic forecasting variables such as winds, tides, waves, currents, temperature and salinity and so on. In practical application systems include storm surges, oil spills, and search and rescue prediction models. In particular, abnormal high waves (swell-like high-height waves) have occurred in the East coast of Korea peninsula during winter season owing to the local meteorological condition over the East Sea, causing property damages and the loss of human lives. In order to improve wave forecast accuracy even very local wave characteristics, numerical wave modeling system using SWAN is established with data assimilation module using 4D-EnKF and sensitivity test has been conducted. During the typhoon period for the prediction of sever waves and the decision making support system for evacuation of the ships, a high-resolution wave forecasting system has been established and calibrated.

Evaluation of melioration area damage on the river Danube caused by the hydroelectric power plant 'Djerdap 1' backwater.

PubMed

Pajic, P; Andjelic, L; Urosevic, U; Polomcic, D

2014-01-01

Construction of the hydroelectric power plant (HPP) 'Djerdap 1' formed a backwater effect on the Danube and its tributaries, which had an inevitable influence on groundwater level, causing it to rise and thus creating additional threats to all melioration areas on more than 300 km of the Danube riversides, as well as on the riversides of its tributaries: the Sava (100 km) and the Tisa (60 km). In this paper, the HPP 'Djerdap 1' backwater effect on some characteristic melioration areas (34 in all) has been analyzed. In most of these areas intensive agricultural activity has always been present. An assessment of agricultural production damage was carried out by complex hydrodynamic calculations (60 calculation profiles) for different backwater regimes, with the aim to precisely quantify the HPP 'Djerdap 1' backwater effect on groundwater piezometric levels. Combining them with complex agroeconomic analyses, the aim is to quantify agricultural production damage and to consider the perspective of melioration area users. This method, which combines two different, but compatible, aspects of the melioration area threat assessment (hydrodynamic and agroeconomic), may present a quality base for further agricultural production threat assessment on all melioration areas on the Danube riversides, with the final aim to consider the economic effects and the importance of its further protection.

Napa Earthquake impact on water systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.

2014-12-01

South Napa earthquake occurred in Napa, California on August 24 at 3am, local time, and the magnitude is 6.0. The earthquake was the largest in SF Bay Area since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Economic loss topped $ 1 billion. Wine makers cleaning up and estimated the damage on tourism. Around 15,000 cases of lovely cabernet were pouring into the garden at the Hess Collection. Earthquake potentially raise water pollution risks, could cause water crisis. CA suffered water shortage recent years, and it could be helpful on how to prevent underground/surface water pollution from earthquake. This research gives a clear view on drinking water system in CA, pollution on river systems, as well as estimation on earthquake impact on water supply. The Sacramento-San Joaquin River delta (close to Napa), is the center of the state's water distribution system, delivering fresh water to more than 25 million residents and 3 million acres of farmland. Delta water conveyed through a network of levees is crucial to Southern California. The drought has significantly curtailed water export, and salt water intrusion reduced fresh water outflows. Strong shaking from a nearby earthquake can cause saturated, loose, sandy soils liquefaction, and could potentially damage major delta levee systems near Napa. Napa earthquake is a wake-up call for Southern California. It could potentially damage freshwater supply system.

The 2008 South China Freeze and its Impact on the Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, B.; Ai, C.; Wang, Y.; Li, Z.; Cao, Y.; Wang, X.

2008-12-01

An unprecedented calamity caused by snow and freezing rain occurred in South China in 2008. This freeze was closely related to the La Nina phenomenon according to a report from the World Meteorological Organization. The freeze stroke 19 provinces in China, and damaged forests of 19.33 million ha with a standing volume loss of 371 million m3. It is estimated that the direct economic loss in the form of destroyed forests is over $8 billion. The indirect loss in the form of impaired ecological functions, such as water and soil conservation, water resources conservancy, biodiversity and forest carbon pool etc is enormous. The calamity of snow and freezing rain affected the structure and function of forest ecosystems. The snow load and freezing rain caused mechanical damage to the trees, with the species of Pinus massoniana, Cunninghamia lanceolata, Pinus elliottii and Phyllostachys pubescens etc. being the most seriously affected. The cold weather could also cause the physiological hurt to the trees. The change of the biotic components leads to the change of abiotic components in the ecosystems. The sunlight under the canopy was intensified due to the opening up of the canopy. The air temperature in the forest, the nutrient and microorganism in soil, the litterfall dynamic were also affected. The alteration of the forest ecosystem structure brought in the alteration of its functions. The damage of the ecosystem structure weakened the capacity of the water and soil conservation, water resources conservancy and reduced the biodiversity in forest ecosystems. Forest gaps allow more sunlight into the freeze-damaged ecosystem, inducing the invasion of more masculine species. The direction and progress of the community succession was therefore altered. At the same time, the freeze made a great impact on the stability and health of the forest ecosystem, increasing the potential risk of outbreak of forest fire and plant diseases/insect pests. Some suggestions on the rebuilding and recovery of damaged forest were given in this paper.

The social costs of nitrogen

PubMed Central

Keeler, Bonnie L.; Gourevitch, Jesse D.; Polasky, Stephen; Isbell, Forest; Tessum, Chris W.; Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.

2016-01-01

Despite growing recognition of the negative externalities associated with reactive nitrogen (N), the damage costs of N to air, water, and climate remain largely unquantified. We propose a comprehensive approach for estimating the social cost of nitrogen (SCN), defined as the present value of the monetary damages caused by an incremental increase in N. This framework advances N accounting by considering how each form of N causes damages at specific locations as it cascades through the environment. We apply the approach to an empirical example that estimates the SCN for N applied as fertilizer. We track impacts of N through its transformation into atmospheric and aquatic pools and estimate the distribution of associated costs to affected populations. Our results confirm that there is no uniform SCN. Instead, changes in N management will result in different N-related costs depending on where N moves and the location, vulnerability, and preferences of populations affected by N. For example, we found that the SCN per kilogram of N fertilizer applied in Minnesota ranges over several orders of magnitude, from less than $0.001/kg N to greater than $10/kg N, illustrating the importance of considering the site, the form of N, and end points of interest rather than assuming a uniform cost for damages. Our approach for estimating the SCN demonstrates the potential of integrated biophysical and economic models to illuminate the costs and benefits of N and inform more strategic and efficient N management. PMID:27713926

The impact of tort reform on intensity of treatment: evidence from heart patients.

PubMed

Avraham, Ronen; Schanzenbach, Max

2015-01-01

This paper analyzes the effect of non-economic damage caps on the treatment intensity of heart attack victims. We focus on whether a patient receives a major intervention in the form of either a coronary artery by-pass or angioplasty. We find strong evidence that treatment intensity declines after a cap on non-economic damages. The probability of receiving a major intervention in the form of either an angioplasty or bypass declines by 1.25-2 percentage points after non-economic damage caps are enacted, and this effect is larger a year or two after reform. However, we also find clear evidence of substitution between major interventions. When doctors have discretion to perform a by-pass and patients have insurance coverage, caps on non-economic damages increase the probability that a by-pass is performed. The effect of non-economic damage caps on costs is not always statistically significant, but in models with state-specific trends, total costs decline by as much as four percent. We conclude that tort reform reduces treatment intensity overall, even though it changes the mix of treatments. Using the Center for Disease Control's Vital Statistics data, we find that tort reform is not associated with an increase in mortality from coronary heart disease; if anything, mortality declines. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

5 CFR 180.108 - Settlement of claims.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... purchase or exchange. The amount payable will be determined by applying the principles of depreciation to the adjusted dollar value or other base price of property lost or damaged beyond economical repair; by... cost, condition when damaged beyond economical repair or lost, and the time elapsed between the date of...

Economic impacts of federal policy responses to drought in the Rio Grande Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Frank A.; Hurd, Brian H.; Rahmani, Tarik; Gollehon, Noel

2006-03-01

Significant growth in the Rio Grande Basin's demand for water has stressed the region's scarce water supply. This paper presents an analysis of the impacts of severe and sustained drought and of minimum in-stream flow requirements to support endangered species in the Rio Grande watershed. These impacts are investigated by modeling the physical and institutional constraints within the Rio Grande Basin and by identifying the hydrologic and economic responses of all major water users. Water supplies, which include all major tributaries, interbasin transfers, and hydrologically connected groundwater, are represented in a yearly time step. A nonlinear programming model is developed to maximize economic benefits subject to hydrologic and institutional constraints. Results indicate that drought produces considerable impacts on both agriculture and municipal and industrial (MI) uses in the Rio Grande watershed. In-stream flow requirements to support endangered species' habitat produce the largest impacts on agricultural water users in New Mexico and Texas. Hydrologic and economic impacts are more pronounced when in-stream flow requirements dictate larger quantities of water for endangered species' habitat. Higher in-stream flow requirements for endangered species in central New Mexico cause considerable losses to New Mexico agriculture above Elephant Butte Reservoir and to MI users in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Those same in-stream flow requirements reduce drought damages to New Mexico agriculture below Elephant Butte Reservoir and reduce the severity of drought damages to MI users in El Paso, Texas. Results provide a framework for formulating federal policy responses to drought in the Rio Grande Basin.

Assessing European wild fire vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oehler, F.; Oliveira, S.; Barredo, J. I.; Camia, A.; Ayanz, J. San Miguel; Pettenella, D.; Mavsar, R.

2012-04-01

Wild fire vulnerability is a measure of potential socio-economic damage caused by a fire in a specific area. As such it is an important component of long-term fire risk management, helping policy-makers take informed decisions about adequate expenditures for fire prevention and suppression, and to target those regions at highest risk. This paper presents a first approach to assess wild fire vulnerability at the European level. A conservative approach was chosen that assesses the cost of restoring the previous land cover after a potential fire. Based on the CORINE Land Cover, a restoration cost was established for each land cover class at country level, and an average restoration time was assigned according to the recovery capacity of the land cover. The damage caused by fire was then assessed by discounting the cost of restoring the previous land cover over the restoration period. Three different vulnerability scenarios were considered assuming low, medium and high fire severity causing different levels of damage. Over Europe, the potential damage of wild land fires ranges from 10 - 13, 732 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for low fire severity, 32 - 45,772 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for medium fire severity and 54 - 77,812 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for high fire severity. The least vulnerable are natural grasslands, moors and heathland and sclerophyllous vegetation, while the highest cost occurs for restoring broad-leaved forest. Preliminary validation comparing these estimates with official damage assessments for past fires shows reasonable results. The restoration cost approach allows for a straightforward, data extensive assessment of fire vulnerability at European level. A disadvantage is the inherent simplification of the evaluation procedure with the underestimation of non-markets goods and services. Thus, a second approach has been developed, valuing individual wild land goods and services and assessing their annual flow which is lost for a certain period of time in case of a fire event. However, due to limitations in data availability, this approach of environmental accounting is not fully implemented yet. Keywords: fire vulnerability, damage assessment, land cover restoration, long-term fire risk, European scale

An Assessment of the Risks Presented by the Use of Carbon Fiber Composites in Commercial Aviation. Volume 1: Final Report. Volume 2: Supporting Appendices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalelkar, A. S.; Fiksel, J.; Raj, P. P. K.; Rosenfield, D. B.

1979-01-01

Carbon fiber (CF) composites are being used to an increasing extent in commercial aircraft, due to their excellent structural properties. Since carbon fibers are highly conductive, a potential risk was identified in the event that an aircraft with CF composite structures is involved in an accidental fire. If carbon fibers are released from the fire, they could disperse in the atmosphere and eventually cause damaging short circuits in electronic equipment at remote locations. This phenomenon could conceivably result in economic losses. The purpose of this study was to assess the risks presented to the nation as a whole by the use of CF composites in commercial aircraft, in terms of the potential economic losses from air carrier accidents.

Palaeoflood hydrology in Europe: towards a better understanding of extreme floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benito, G.; Thorndycraft, V. R.; Rico, M.; Sheffer, N.; Enzel, Y.

2003-04-01

Floods are the most common natural disasters in Europe and, in terms of economic damage, costs are increasing spectacularly with time. Flood risk assessment associated with extreme floods is difficult due to the scarcity of hydrological measurements, that rarely go beyond 1000 years, which is clearly not sufficient for flood management in urban and industrial areas. Besides the use of conventional hydrologic data, the pre-instrumental record can be completed from palaeoflood hydrology or from documentary flood information, or through the combined use of both these tools. Recent developments of palaeoflood hydrology in Europe provide (1) major improvements in flood risk assessment, and (2) a better understanding of long-term flood-climate relationships. Palaeoflood hydrology has been successfully applied in large, medium rivers as well as small ungauged mountain drainage basins. Long-term palaeoflood records from Spain and France show that recent extraordinary flooding (causing huge economic damages) are not the largest ones, but that similar or even greater floods occurred several times in the past. In addition, clusters of floods coinciding in time at several European rivers point out to climatic factors as responsible mechanisms, although in recent time flood magnitude can be magnified by increasing human activity.

Economic impacts of a California tsunami

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rose, Adam; Wing, Ian Sue; Wei, Dan; Wein, Anne

2016-01-01

The economic consequences of a tsunami scenario for Southern California are estimated using computable general equilibrium analysis. The economy is modeled as a set of interconnected supply chains interacting through markets but with explicit constraints stemming from property damage and business downtime. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction of Gross Domestic Product for Southern California, Rest of California, and U.S. economies. For California, total economic impacts represent the general equilibrium (essentially quantity and price multiplier) effects of lost production in industries upstream and downstream in the supply-chain of sectors that are directly impacted by port cargo disruptions at Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach (POLA/POLB), property damage along the coast, and evacuation of potentially inundated areas. These impacts are estimated to be $2.2 billion from port disruptions, $0.9 billion from property damages, and $2.8 billion from evacuations. Various economic-resilience tactics can potentially reduce the direct and total impacts by 80–85%.

Biocidal treatment and preservation of liquid fuels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Siegert, W.

1995-05-01

Strict microbiological limit values are the result of damage caused by microorganisms in fuels. With MAR 71, a biocide based on methylenebisoxazolidine, a product is available which has been tested and approved by leading car manufacturers, the mineral oil industry, and NATO. Depending on the degree of microbiological contamination, different decontamination concepts are presented, and recommendations for the treatment of fuels which are contaminated when purchased are given. In order to avoid recontamination, planning principles or the new design of tanks are necessary. The possibility of convenient, economical and regular drainage is a key factor.

Economic Valuation as an Instrument to Determine The Management Strategy of Baros Mangrove Forest, Bantul, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waluyo Jati, Irawan; Pribadi, Rudhi

2018-02-01

The Baros mangrove forest in Bantul Regency is now beginning to develop. Many government and private sectors programs are rolled out to support its development. The development of the Baros mangrove forest must be in accordance with the rules of conservation so that it will not damage the mangrove ecosystem. Mangrove forest has high economical and ecological value but is very vulnerable if lack of wisdom in maintaining, preserving and managing them. The involvement of government and other stakeholders are essential in determining management policies. Unawareness of society and the government to the importance of mangrove ecosystem can cause development of it becomes uncontrolled, consequently can destroy it. Mangrove forests are an important natural resource in coastal environments, and have three main functions: physical, biological, and economic functions. To quantify the functions of mangrove forests as the basis to determine the policy is required a research instrument called economic valuation. The approach of this study is the literature review from various studies before to perceive the influence of economic valuation in determining the management strategy of Baros mangrove forest in Bantul Regency, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.

Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model - Part 1: Abatement share and investment in low-carbon technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogutu, K. B. Z.; D'Andrea, F.; Ghil, M.; Nyandwi, C.; Manene, M. M.; Muthama, J. N.

2015-04-01

The Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model described herein takes an integrated assessment approach to simulating global change. By using an endogenous economic growth module with physical and human capital accumulation, this paper considers the sustainability of economic growth, as economic activity intensifies greenhouse gas emissions that in turn cause economic damage due to climate change. Different types of fossil fuels and different technologies produce different volumes of carbon dioxide in combustion. The shares of different fuels and their future evolution are not known. We assume that the dynamics of hydrocarbon-based energy share and their replacement with renewable energy sources in the global energy balance can be modeled into the 21st century by use of logistic functions. Various climate change mitigation policy measures are considered. While many integrated assessment models treat abatement costs merely as an unproductive loss of income, we consider abatement activities also as an investment in overall energy efficiency of the economy and decrease of overall carbon intensity of the energy system. The paper shows that these efforts help to reduce the volume of industrial carbon dioxide emissions, lower temperature deviations, and lead to positive effects in economic growth.

Economic impacts and impact dynamics of Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) cotton in India

PubMed Central

Kathage, Jonas; Qaim, Matin

2012-01-01

Despite widespread adoption of genetically modified crops in many countries, heated controversies about their advantages and disadvantages continue. Especially for developing countries, there are concerns that genetically modified crops fail to benefit smallholder farmers and contribute to social and economic hardship. Many economic studies contradict this view, but most of them look at short-term impacts only, so that uncertainty about longer-term effects prevails. We address this shortcoming by analyzing economic impacts and impact dynamics of Bt cotton in India. Building on unique panel data collected between 2002 and 2008, and controlling for nonrandom selection bias in technology adoption, we show that Bt has caused a 24% increase in cotton yield per acre through reduced pest damage and a 50% gain in cotton profit among smallholders. These benefits are stable; there are even indications that they have increased over time. We further show that Bt cotton adoption has raised consumption expenditures, a common measure of household living standard, by 18% during the 2006–2008 period. We conclude that Bt cotton has created large and sustainable benefits, which contribute to positive economic and social development in India. PMID:22753493

Economic Impacts of Infrastructure Damages on Industrial Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kajitani, Yoshio

This paper proposes a basic model for evaluating economic impacts on industrial sectors under the conditions that multiple infrastructures are simultaneously damaged during the earthquake disasters. Especially, focusing on the available economic data developed in the smallest spatial scale in Japan (small area statistics), economic loss estimation model based on the small area statistics and its applicability are investigated on. In the detail, a loss estimation framework, utilizing survey results on firms' activities under electricity, water and gas disruptions, and route choice models in Transportation Engineering, are applied to the case of 2004 Mid-Niigata Earthquake.

Seismic damage to structures in the M s6.5 Ludian earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hao; Xie, Quancai; Dai, Boyang; Zhang, Haoyu; Chen, Hongfu

2016-03-01

On 3 August 2014, the Ludian earthquake struck northwest Yunnan Province with a surface wave magnitude of 6.5. This moderate earthquake unexpectedly caused high fatalities and great economic loss. Four strong motion stations were located in the areas with intensity V, VI, VII and IX, near the epicentre. The characteristics of the ground motion are discussed herein, including 1) ground motion was strong at a period of less than 1.4 s, which covered the natural vibration period of a large number of structures; and 2) the release energy was concentrated geographically. Based on materials collected during emergency building inspections, the damage patterns of adobe, masonry, timber frame and reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures in areas with different intensities are summarised. Earthquake damage matrices of local buildings are also given for fragility evaluation and earthquake damage prediction. It is found that the collapse ratios of RC frame and confined masonry structures based on the new design code are significantly lower than non-seismic buildings. However, the RC frame structures still failed to achieve the `strong column, weak beam' design target. Traditional timber frame structures with a light infill wall showed good aseismic performance.

Rapid assessment of disaster damage using social media activity

PubMed Central

Kryvasheyeu, Yury; Chen, Haohui; Obradovich, Nick; Moro, Esteban; Van Hentenryck, Pascal; Fowler, James; Cebrian, Manuel

2016-01-01

Could social media data aid in disaster response and damage assessment? Countries face both an increasing frequency and an increasing intensity of natural disasters resulting from climate change. During such events, citizens turn to social media platforms for disaster-related communication and information. Social media improves situational awareness, facilitates dissemination of emergency information, enables early warning systems, and helps coordinate relief efforts. In addition, the spatiotemporal distribution of disaster-related messages helps with the real-time monitoring and assessment of the disaster itself. We present a multiscale analysis of Twitter activity before, during, and after Hurricane Sandy. We examine the online response of 50 metropolitan areas of the United States and find a strong relationship between proximity to Sandy’s path and hurricane-related social media activity. We show that real and perceived threats, together with physical disaster effects, are directly observable through the intensity and composition of Twitter’s message stream. We demonstrate that per-capita Twitter activity strongly correlates with the per-capita economic damage inflicted by the hurricane. We verify our findings for a wide range of disasters and suggest that massive online social networks can be used for rapid assessment of damage caused by a large-scale disaster. PMID:27034978

Rapid assessment of disaster damage using social media activity.

PubMed

Kryvasheyeu, Yury; Chen, Haohui; Obradovich, Nick; Moro, Esteban; Van Hentenryck, Pascal; Fowler, James; Cebrian, Manuel

2016-03-01

Could social media data aid in disaster response and damage assessment? Countries face both an increasing frequency and an increasing intensity of natural disasters resulting from climate change. During such events, citizens turn to social media platforms for disaster-related communication and information. Social media improves situational awareness, facilitates dissemination of emergency information, enables early warning systems, and helps coordinate relief efforts. In addition, the spatiotemporal distribution of disaster-related messages helps with the real-time monitoring and assessment of the disaster itself. We present a multiscale analysis of Twitter activity before, during, and after Hurricane Sandy. We examine the online response of 50 metropolitan areas of the United States and find a strong relationship between proximity to Sandy's path and hurricane-related social media activity. We show that real and perceived threats, together with physical disaster effects, are directly observable through the intensity and composition of Twitter's message stream. We demonstrate that per-capita Twitter activity strongly correlates with the per-capita economic damage inflicted by the hurricane. We verify our findings for a wide range of disasters and suggest that massive online social networks can be used for rapid assessment of damage caused by a large-scale disaster.

Identification of Extreme Events Under Climate Change Conditions Over Europe and The Northwest-atlantic Region: Spatial Patterns and Time Series Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G.; Ulbrich, U.; Speth, P.

In the context of climate change and the resulting possible impacts on socio-economic conditions for human activities it seems that due to a changed occurrence of extreme events more severe consequences have to be expected than from changes in the mean climate. These extreme events like floods, excessive heats and droughts or windstorms possess impacts on human social and economic life in different categories such as forestry, agriculture, energy use, tourism and the reinsurance business. Reinsurances are affected by nearly 70% of all insured damages over Europe in the case of wind- storms. Especially the December 1999 French windstorms caused damages about 10 billion. A new EU-founded project (MICE = Modelling the Impact of Climate Ex- tremes) will focus on these impacts caused by changed occurrences of extreme events over Europe. Based upon the output of general circulation models as well as regional climate models, investigations are carried out with regard to time series characteristics as well as the spatial patterns of extremes under climate changed conditions. After the definition of specific thresholds for climate extremes, in this talk we will focus on the results of the analysis for the different data sets (HadCM3 and CGCMII GCM's and RCM's, re-analyses, observations) with regard to windstorm events. At first the results of model outputs are validated against re-analyses and observations. Especially a comparison of the stormtrack (2.5 to 8 day bandpass filtered 500 hPa geopotential height), cyclone track, cyclone frequency and intensity is presented. Highly relevant to damages is the extreme wind near the ground level, so the 10 m wind speed will be investigated additionally. of special interest to possible impacts is the changed spatial occurrence of windspeed maxima under 2xCO2-induced climate change.

An economic approach to assessing import policies designed to prevent the arrival of invasive species: the case of Puccinia psidii in Hawai'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burnett, Kimberly; D'Evelyn, Sean; Loope, Lloyd; Wada, Christopher A.

2012-01-01

Since its first documented introduction to Hawai‘i in 2005, the rust fungus Puccinia psidii has already severely damaged Syzygium jambos (Indian rose apple) trees and the federally endangered Eugenia koolauensis (nioi). Fortunately, the particular strain has yet to cause serious damage to Metrosideros polymorpha (‘ōhi‘a), which comprises roughly 80% of the state's native forests and covers 400,000 ha. Although the rust has affected less than 5% of Hawaii's ‘ōhi‘a trees thus far, the introduction of more virulent strains and the genetic evolution of the current strain are still possible. Since the primary pathway of introduction is Myrtaceae plant material imported from outside the state, potential damage to ‘ōhi‘a can be minimized by regulating those high-risk imports. We discuss the economic impact on the state's florist, nursery, landscaping, and forest plantation industries of a proposed rule that would ban the import of non-seed Myrtaceae plant material and require a 1-year quarantine of seeds. Our analysis suggests that the benefits to the forest plantation industry of a complete ban on non-seed material would likely outweigh the costs to other affected sectors, even without considering the reduction in risk to ‘ōhi‘a. Incorporating the value of ‘ōhi‘a protection would further increase the benefit–cost ratio in favor of an import ban.

Economic analysis of the proposed rule to prevent arrival of new genetic strains of the rust fungus Puccinia psidii in Hawai'i.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burnett, Kimberly; D'Evelyn, Sean; Loope, Lloyd; Wada, Christopher A.

2012-01-01

Since its first documented introduction to Hawai‘i in 2005, the rust fungus P. psidii has already severely damaged Syzygium jambos (Indian rose apple) trees and the federally endangered Eugenia koolauensis (nioi). Fortunately, the particular strain has yet to cause serious damage to ‘ōhi‘a, which comprises roughly 80% of the state’s native forests and covers 400,000 ha. Although the rust has affected less than 5% of Hawaii’s ‘ōhi‘a trees thus far, the introduction of more virulent strains and the genetic evolution of the current strain are still possible. Since the primary pathway of introduction is Myrtaceae plant material imported from outside the state, potential damage to ‘ohi‘a can be minimized by regulating those high-risk imports. We discuss the economic impact on the state’s florist, nursery, landscaping, and forest plantation industries of a proposed rule that would ban the import of non-seed Myrtaceae plant material and require a one-year quarantine of seeds. Our analysis suggests that the benefits to the forest plantation industry of a complete ban on non-seed material would likely outweigh the costs to other affected sectors, even without considering the reduction in risk to ‘ōhi‘a. Incorporating the value of ‘ōhi‘a protection would further increase the benefit-cost ratio in favor of an import ban.

Planning practice in support of economically and environmentally sustainable roads in floodplains: the case of the Mekong delta floodplains.

PubMed

Douven, Wim; Buurman, Joost

2013-10-15

Road development in relatively undisturbed floodplain systems, such as the floodplains of the Mekong River, will impact hydraulics and interrupt the natural flow of water. This affects the ecology and environment, and the livelihoods of people who depend on fishing and agriculture. On the other hand, floods can severely damage road infrastructure in years with large floods and can cause high annual maintenance costs. Improving road development practices in floodplains is a complex, multidimensional task involving hydraulic and geotechnical analysis, ecosystem analysis, socio-economic analysis, policy analysis, etc. This paper analyses the planning practice of road development and rehabilitation and how this practice can be improved in support of economically and environmentally sustainable roads in floodplains. It is concluded that although ample technical, planning and environmental assessment guidelines exist, guidelines need updating to address cumulative impacts at floodplain level and factors hampering the implementation in guidelines should be addressed in the guideline design (process). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On predicting future economic losses from tropical cyclones: Comparing damage functions for the Eastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geiger, Tobias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja

2015-04-01

Recent years have seen an intense scientific debate of what to expect from future tropical cyclone activity under climate change [1,2]. Besides the projection of cyclones' genesis points and trajectories it is the cyclone's impact on future societies that needs to be quantified. In our present work, where we focus on the Eastern USA, we start out with a comprehensive comparison of a variety of presently available and novel functional relationships that are used to link cyclones' physical properties with their damage caused on the ground. These so-called damage functions make use of high quality data sets consisting of gridded population data, exposed capital at risk, and information on the cyclone's extension and its translational and locally resolved maximum wind speed. Based on a cross-validation ansatz we train a multitude of damage functions on a large variety of data sets in order to evaluate their performance on an equally sized test sample. Although different damage analyses have been conducted in the literature [3,4,5,6], the efforts have so far primarily been focused on determining fit parameters for individual data sets. As our analysis consists of a wide range of damage functions implemented on identical data sets, we can rigorously evaluate which (type of) damage function (for which set of parameters) does best in reproducing damages and should therefore be used for future loss analysis with highest certainty. We find that the benefits of using locally resolved data input tend to be outweighed by the large uncertainties that accompany the data. More coarse and generalized data input therefore captures the diversity of cyclonic features better. Furthermore, our analysis shows that a non-linear relation between wind speed and damage outperforms the linear as well as the exponential relationship discussed in the literature. In a second step, the damage function with the highest predictive quality is implemented to predict potential future cyclone losses for the Eastern USA until the year 2100. The projection is based on downscaling five different GCM model runs for the RCP8.5 scenario, as conducted by Emanuel et al. [7], and accounts for population and GDP changes relying on the newly developed Shared Socioenonomic Pathways (SSPs) [8]. We hereby contribute valuable input to the scientific community as well as the societies at risk. The possibility of extending this work to different regions in order to access the future impact of tropical cyclones on a global scale will also be discussed. References [1] Thomas R. Knutson, John L. McBride, Johnny Chan, Kerry Emanuel, Greg Holland, Chris Landsea, Isaac Held, James P. Kossin, A. K. Srivastava, and Masato Sugi. Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience, 3(3):157-163, 2010. [2] Robert Mendelsohn, Kerry Emanuel, Shun Chonabayashi, and Laura Bakkensen. The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage. Nature Climate Change, 2(3):205-209, 2012. [3] Silvio Schmidt, Claudia Kemfert, and Peter Höppe. The impact of socio-economics and climate change on tropical cyclone losses in the USA. Regional Environmental Change, 10(1):13-26, 2009. [4] William D. Nordhaus. The Economics of Hurricanes and Implications of Global Warming. Climate Change Economics, 01(01):1-20, 2010. [5] Kerry Emanuel. Global Warming Effects on U.S. Hurricane Damage. Weather, Climate, and Society, 3(4):261-268, 2011. [6] Richard J. Murnane and James B. Elsner. Maximum wind speeds and US hurricane losses. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(16):707, 2012. [7] Kerry Emanuel. Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(30):12219-24, 2013. [8] Detlef P. van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, and Richard Moss. A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities. Global Environmental Change, 22(1):21-35, 2012.

Reconciling the conservation of the purple swamphen (Porphyrio porphyrio) and its damage in Mediterranean rice fields through sustainable non-lethal techniques

PubMed Central

Piqué, Josep

2018-01-01

Resolving human–wildlife conflicts requires the assessment and implementation of appropriate technical measures that minimize negative impacts on socio-economic uses, including agriculture, and ensure the adequate protection of biological diversity. Rice paddies are widely distributed in the western Mediterranean region. Because of their high productivity, they can be a good habitat for waterbirds, including the purple swamphen Porphyrio porphyrio, particularly in areas where natural wetlands have been removed or reduced. As a result of its population growth, there have been increasing levels of damage caused by this species in rice fields due to stem-cutting and opening of bald patches in rice fields. With the aim of reducing damage, we evaluated the effectiveness of passive and active measures that would limit access to rice fields and deter/scare away purple swamphens in affected areas of the Ebro Delta (NE Spain). We selected the techniques according to the growth phase of rice and the activity of birds in the rice fields (perimeter fences and clearing vegetation around the rice plots during sprouting and growing phases, and falconry at maturation). There were positive results during the sprouting and growing phases thanks to fences and clearing vegetation, reducing the affected area by 37.8% between treatment and control plots. This would mean an economic savings of 18,550 €/year in compensation payments by regional administrations including the investment in implementing and maintaining passive protection measures. Active deterrence through falconry did not reduce the level of damage. The analysis of purple swamphen home range, activity centers (centroids), and the proportion of locations in and outside of rice fields showed no differences before and after dissuasive practices. These results were influenced by multiple concurrent factors including weather, the structural configuration of the rice plots and their location. In summary, we recommend the establishment of protection measures (perimeter fences + clearing vegetation around the rice plots) to reduce the level of damage. PMID:29707429

On State Youth Policy in the Russian Federation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Markova, N. E.

2014-01-01

The social, economic, and cultural changes that occurred in Russia following the collapse of the Soviet Union have combined to impose severe damage on the population, and not the least on Russia's young people. The provision of new forms of social and economic support are needed, as well as new youth programs, if further damage is to be avoided.

Simulation of earthquake caused building damages for the development of fast reconnaissance techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schweier, C.; Markus, M.; Steinle, E.

2004-04-01

Catastrophic events like strong earthquakes can cause big losses in life and economic values. An increase in the efficiency of reconnaissance techniques could help to reduce the losses in life as many victims die after and not during the event. A basic prerequisite to improve the rescue teams' work is an improved planning of the measures. This can only be done on the basis of reliable and detailed information about the actual situation in the affected regions. Therefore, a bundle of projects at Karlsruhe university aim at the development of a tool for fast information retrieval after strong earthquakes. The focus is on urban areas as the most losses occur there. In this paper the approach for a damage analysis of buildings will be presented. It consists of an automatic methodology to model buildings in three dimensions, a comparison of pre- and post-event models to detect changes and a subsequent classification of the changes into damage types. The process is based on information extraction from airborne laserscanning data, i.e. digital surface models (DSM) acquired through scanning of an area with pulsed laser light. To date, there are no laserscanning derived DSMs available to the authors that were taken of areas that suffered damages from earthquakes. Therefore, it was necessary to simulate such data for the development of the damage detection methodology. In this paper two different methodologies used for simulating the data will be presented. The first method is to create CAD models of undamaged buildings based on their construction plans and alter them artificially in such a way as if they had suffered serious damage. Then, a laserscanning data set is simulated based on these models which can be compared with real laserscanning data acquired of the buildings (in intact state). The other approach is to use measurements of actual damaged buildings and simulate their intact state. It is possible to model the geometrical structure of these damaged buildings based on digital photography taken after the event by evaluating the images with photogrammetrical methods. The intact state of the buildings is simulated based on on-site investigations, and finally laserscanning data are simulated for both states.

Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets.

PubMed

Burke, Marshall; Davis, W Matthew; Diffenbaugh, Noah S

2018-05-01

International climate change agreements typically specify global warming thresholds as policy targets 1 , but the relative economic benefits of achieving these temperature targets remain poorly understood 2,3 . Uncertainties include the spatial pattern of temperature change, how global and regional economic output will respond to these changes in temperature, and the willingness of societies to trade present for future consumption. Here we combine historical evidence 4 with national-level climate 5 and socioeconomic 6 projections to quantify the economic damages associated with the United Nations (UN) targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming, and those associated with current UN national-level mitigation commitments (which together approach 3 °C warming 7 ). We find that by the end of this century, there is a more than 75% chance that limiting warming to 1.5 °C would reduce economic damages relative to 2 °C, and a more than 60% chance that the accumulated global benefits will exceed US$20 trillion under a 3% discount rate (2010 US dollars). We also estimate that 71% of countries-representing 90% of the global population-have a more than 75% chance of experiencing reduced economic damages at 1.5 °C, with poorer countries benefiting most. Our results could understate the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 °C if unprecedented extreme outcomes, such as large-scale sea level rise 8 , occur for warming of 2 °C but not for warming of 1.5 °C. Inclusion of other unquantified sources of uncertainty, such as uncertainty in secular growth rates beyond that contained in existing socioeconomic scenarios, could also result in less precise impact estimates. We find considerably greater reductions in global economic output beyond 2 °C. Relative to a world that did not warm beyond 2000-2010 levels, we project 15%-25% reductions in per capita output by 2100 for the 2.5-3 °C of global warming implied by current national commitments 7 , and reductions of more than 30% for 4 °C warming. Our results therefore suggest that achieving the 1.5 °C target is likely to reduce aggregate damages and lessen global inequality, and that failing to meet the 2 °C target is likely to increase economic damages substantially.

Flood loss assessment in Can Tho City, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Do, T. C.; Kreibich, H.

2012-04-01

Floods are recurring events in the Lower Mekong Basin resulting in loss of life and property, causing damage to agriculture and rural infrastructure, and disrupting social and economic activities. Flood management and mitigation has become a priority issue at the national and regional levels. Besides, it is expected that large areas of the Mekong delta, the Red River delta and the central coast will be flooded by sea-level rise due to climate change. Can Tho City is ranked under the five most flood-tide-influenced cities of Vietnam. It is the biggest city in the Mekong delta and it is located near the Hau river. Like other region of the Mekong delta, Can Tho suffers due to floods from upstream and flood tides from the sea. In the flood season large rural areas of the city are flooded, particularly during tidal days. Flood risk management policy includes preparative measures for living with floods and to minimise the damage caused by floods as well as to take advantage of floods for sustainable development. An intensive literature review, including administrative reports as well as expert interviews have been undertaken to gain more insight into flood characteristics, their consequences and risk mitigation. Therefore, flood damaging processes and trends have been reviewed for Can Tho City and the Mekong Basin in Vietnam. Additionally, suitable flood damage estimation methodologies have been collected as important input for flood risk analyses. On this basis it has been investigated which flood risk mitigation and management strategies promise to be effective in Can Tho City, Vietnam.

A Probabilistic Typhoon Risk Model for Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haseemkunju, A.; Smith, D. F.; Brolley, J. M.

2017-12-01

Annually, the coastal Provinces of low-lying Mekong River delta region in the southwest to the Red River Delta region in Northern Vietnam is exposed to severe wind and flood risk from landfalling typhoons. On average, about two to three tropical cyclones with a maximum sustained wind speed of >=34 knots make landfall along the Vietnam coast. Recently, Typhoon Wutip (2013) crossed Central Vietnam as a category 2 typhoon causing significant damage to properties. As tropical cyclone risk is expected to increase with increase in exposure and population growth along the coastal Provinces of Vietnam, insurance/reinsurance, and capital markets need a comprehensive probabilistic model to assess typhoon risk in Vietnam. In 2017, CoreLogic has expanded the geographical coverage of its basin-wide Western North Pacific probabilistic typhoon risk model to estimate the economic and insured losses from landfalling and by-passing tropical cyclones in Vietnam. The updated model is based on 71 years (1945-2015) of typhoon best-track data and 10,000 years of a basin-wide simulated stochastic tracks covering eight countries including Vietnam. The model is capable of estimating damage from wind, storm surge and rainfall flooding using vulnerability models, which relate typhoon hazard to building damageability. The hazard and loss models are validated against past historical typhoons affecting Vietnam. Notable typhoons causing significant damage in Vietnam are Lola (1993), Frankie (1996), Xangsane (2006), and Ketsana (2009). The central and northern coastal provinces of Vietnam are more vulnerable to wind and flood hazard, while typhoon risk in the southern provinces are relatively low.

Vulnerability assessment to frost disaster in dieng volcanic highland using spatial multi-criteria evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradana, A.; Rahmanu, Y. A.; Prabaningrum, I.; Nurafifa, I.; Hizbaron, D. R.

2018-04-01

Dieng Volcanic Highland is one of frost disaster prone area which is very unique phenomenon in tropical region. Frost indicated by appearance of frozen dew or ice layer on the ground or vegetation surface due air inversion and cold temperatures during midnight in dry season. Appearance of frost significantly causes plant damage and losses on agricultural land, while the impacts were strongly influenced by level of vulnerability within agricultural communities. This study aims to analyze the impact of frost on agricultural land in Dieng, to identify characteristics of physical, social, economic vulnerability and coping capacity of agricultural communities to frost disaster in Dieng, and to estimate total vulnerability of frost disasters in Dieng through SMCE scenario. Research was conducted in Dieng Village, Wonosobo and Dieng Kulon Village, Banjarnegara. Method to assess vulnerability level is performed by Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation (SMCE) method using ILWIS software through a combination of physical, social, and economic vulnerability regarding frost hazard, as well as coping capacity of farmers. Data collected by interview within different agricultural plots using questionnaire and in-depth interview method on frost affected agricultural land. Impact of frost mostly causes damage on potato agricultural land than any other types of commodities, such as carrot, leek or cabbage. Losses varies in range of 0 million to 55 million rupiah, at most events in range of 10 million to 15 million rupiah during frost season on July-August-September. Main factors determining vulnerability comes from crop losses, preparedness effort, and type of commodity. Agricultural land dominated by high level physical vulnerability (95.37 percent), high level social vulnerability (70.79 percent), moderate level economic vulnerability (79.23 percent) and moderate level coping capacity (73.18 percent). All five scenarios indicated that level of total vulnerability vary only from moderate level up to high level.

risk factor Inn (INNrisk) - transdisciplinary analysis of the 2005 flood in the province of Tyrol, Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleewein, Klaus; Pfurtscheller, Clemens; Borsdorf, Axel

2010-05-01

The transdisciplinary project INNrisk, in collaboration with public risk and disaster management, investigates the severe floods of 22nd and 23rd of August, 2005, and their effects within the federal province of Tyrol. The inundation and accompanying processes (e.g. debris flows, log jams, underwashing of infrastructure) caused by the river Inn and its tributaries created a dangerous situation for Tyrol. The overall economic loss of direct assets is said to amount to ca. 500 million Euros. Climate change has basically been causing a statistical increase of damaging floods within the Alpine Space in recent decades while increasing vulnerability at the same time. The expansion of settlements is one factor in the threat to large numbers of people and growing economic losses. However, the disasters of the last decade provide an opportunity for analysing the flood process in terms of natural-science and geographical aspects as well as in terms of economic and statistical ones. This should lead to a better understanding of triggers and effects in those areas where humans are active and form the basis for mitigation and adaptation strategies. The results of such analyses represent valuable information for public risk and disaster management, particularly in presenting the effects on public and private households. The INNrisk project primarily aims to assess the framework conditions in systemic-legal terms and to analyse human actions during the floods in relation to various plans and the damage potentials resulting from them. The assessed losses depend to a great extent on the actions taken during the emergency and on flood operations by the public emergency management and local fire departments, which are in charge of floods and related processes in the case of Austria. Assessment will be carried out by analysing a database of series of human actions for the duration of the emergeny and increased risk. The project also strives to arrive at a macro- and mesoeconomic assessment of the damages by category (infrastructure, buildings, vehicles, etc.) and sector, as well as gauging potential positive effects on the regional economy. It can be assumed that the main beneficiaries of natural hazard processes in Alpine regions are the building and construction industry, transportation businesses and their suppliers. For this part of the project, a georeferenced database will be designed to get an idea of spatial distribution, loss patterns and local specifics compared with natural scientific parameters of the 2005 flood. An overall analysis serves to identify potential improvements within public disaster management and to sketch damage limitation strategies. The project results are of great value, not just for damage prevention measures against future Inn floods, which are likely to occur more frequently and in greater intensity as a result of global warming, but also for other rivers in the Alps. The results of this research may form the basis for developing effective adaptation strategies to climate change and the resulting potential threats to river valleys.

Guess-Work and Reasonings on Centennial Evolution of Surface Air Temperature in Russia. Part IV: Towards Economic Estimations of Climate-Related Damages from the Bifurcation Analysis Viewpoint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolokolov, Yury; Monovskaya, Anna

The paper completes the cycle of the research devoted to the development of the experimental bifurcation analysis (not computer simulations) in order to answer the following questions: whether qualitative changes occur in the dynamics of local climate systems in a centennial timescale?; how to analyze such qualitative changes with daily resolution for local and regional space-scales?; how to establish one-to-one daily correspondence between the dynamics evolution and economic consequences for productions? To answer the questions, the unconventional conceptual model to describe the local climate dynamics was proposed and verified in the previous parts. That model (HDS-model) originates from the hysteresis regulator with double synchronization and has a variable structure due to competition between the amplitude quantization and the time quantization. The main advantage of the HDS-model is connected with the possibility to describe “internally” (on the basis of the self-regulation) the specific causal effects observed in the dynamics of local climate systems instead of “external” description of three states of the hysteresis behavior of climate systems (upper, lower and transient states). As a result, the evolution of the local climate dynamics is based on the bifurcation diagrams built by processing the data of meteorological observations, where the strange effects of the essential interannual daily variability of annual temperature variation are taken into account and explained. It opens the novel possibilities to analyze the local climate dynamics taking into account the observed resultant of all internal and external influences on each local climate system. In particular, the paper presents the viewpoint on how to estimate economic damages caused by climate-related hazards through the bifurcation analysis. That viewpoint includes the following ideas: practically each local climate system is characterized by its own time pattern of the natural qualitative changes in temperature dynamics over a century, so, any unified time window to determine the local climatic norms seems to be questionable; the temperature limits determined for climate-related technological hazards should be reasoned by the conditions of artificial human activity, but not by the climatic norms; the damages caused by such hazards can be approximately estimated in relation to the average annual profit of each production. Now, it becomes possible to estimate the minimal and maximal numbers of the specified hazards per year in order, first of all, to avoid unforeseen latent damages. Also, it becomes possible to make some useful relative estimation concerning damage and profit. We believe that the results presented in the cycle illustrate great practical competence of the current advances in the experimental bifurcation analysis. In particular, the developed QHS-analysis provides the novel prospects towards both how to adapt production to climatic changes and how to compensate negative technological impacts on environment.

Estimating the economic impact of climate change on cardiovascular diseases--evidence from Taiwan.

PubMed

Liao, Shu-Yi; Tseng, Wei-Chun; Chen, Pin-Yu; Chen, Chi-Chung; Wu, Wei-Min

2010-12-01

The main purpose of this study was to investigate how climate change affects blood vessel-related heart disease and hypertension and to estimate the associated economic damage. In this paper, both the panel data model and the contingent valuation method (CVM) approaches are applied. The empirical results indicate that the number of death from cardiovascular diseases would be increased by 0.226% as the variation in temperature increases by 1%. More importantly, the number of death from cardiovascular diseases would be increased by 1.2% to 4.1% under alternative IPCC climate change scenarios. The results from the CVM approach show that each person would be willing to pay US$51 to US$97 per year in order to avoid the increase in the mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases caused by climate change.

Estimating the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Cardiovascular Diseases—Evidence from Taiwan

PubMed Central

Liao, Shu-Yi; Tseng, Wei-Chun; Chen, Pin-Yu; Chen, Chi-Chung; Wu, Wei-Min

2010-01-01

The main purpose of this study was to investigate how climate change affects blood vessel-related heart disease and hypertension and to estimate the associated economic damage. In this paper, both the panel data model and the contingent valuation method (CVM) approaches are applied. The empirical results indicate that the number of death from cardiovascular diseases would be increased by 0.226% as the variation in temperature increases by 1%. More importantly, the number of death from cardiovascular diseases would be increased by 1.2% to 4.1% under alternative IPCC climate change scenarios. The results from the CVM approach show that each person would be willing to pay US$51 to US$97 per year in order to avoid the increase in the mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases caused by climate change. PMID:21318006

Economic Barriers To Improvement Of Human Health Associated With Wastewater Irrigation In The Mezquital Valley, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamagata, H.; Sedlak, D. L.

2008-12-01

To improve public health, the United Nations' Johannesburg Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002 set Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) of reducing by half the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and sanitation by 2015. The Mezquital Valley of Mexico is one of the places suffering serious human health problems such as ascariasis due to agricultural irrigation with untreated wastewater discharged by Mexico City. Despite the existence of serious health problems, wastewater treatment has not been installed due to economic barriers: the agricultural benefit of nutrients in the wastewater and cost of building and operating wastewater treatment plants. To develop solutions to this problem, the human health damage and the benefits of nutrient input were evaluated. The health impact caused by untreated wastewater reuse in the Mezquital Valley was estimated to be about 14 DALYs (disability-adjusted life year) per 100,000, which was 2.8 times higher than the DALYs lost by ascariasis in Mexico in 2002 estimated by WHO. The economic damage of the health impact was evaluated at 77,000 /year using willingness-to-pay (WTP) for reducing DALYs. The value of nutrient inputs (nitrogen and phosphorus) due to reuse of untreated wastewater was evaluated at 33 million /year using fertilizer prices. Therefore, attempts to decrease public health problems associated with reuse in the Mezquital Valley need to address losses of economic benefits associated with nutrients in sewage. In 2007, the Mexican Government announced plans to install wastewater treatment plants in this area. Although nutrient inputs in irrigated water is expected to decrease by 33% due to the wastewater treatment, farmers in the Mezquital Valley would still benefit from improved public health in the community and increases of crop values due to the ability to grow raw-eaten vegetables.

The economics and ethics of aerosol geoengineering strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goes, Marlos; Keller, Klaus; Tuana, Nancy

2010-05-01

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth's climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for a different approach: geoengineering climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) a potential failure to sustain the aerosol forcing and (ii) due to potential negative impacts associated with aerosol forcings. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcings. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes considerable caveats. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of future learning and is based on a simple representation of climate change impacts. We use this integrated assessment model to show three main points. First, substituting aerosol geoengineering for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions can fail the test of economic efficiency. One key to this finding is that a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing can lead to sizeable and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to such a discontinuous aerosol geoengineering can dominate the cost-benefit analysis because the monetary damages of climate change are expected to increase with the rate of change. Second, the relative contribution of aerosol geoengineering to an economically optimal portfolio hinges critically on deeply uncertain estimates of the damages due to aerosol forcing. Even if we assume that aerosol forcing could be deployed continuously, the aerosol geoengineering does not considerably displace the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the simple economic optimal growth model until the damages due to the aerosol forcing are rather low. Third, deploying aerosol geoengineering may also fail an ethical test regarding issues of intergenerational justice. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for reducing greenhouse gas emissions constitutes a conscious risk transfer to future generations, for example due to the increased risk of future abrupt climate change. This risk transfer is in tension with the requirement of intergenerational justice that present generations should not create benefits for themselves in exchange for burdens on future generations.

Antifungal activity of 1-methylcyclopropene (1-MCP) against anthracnose (Colletotrichum gloeosporioides) in postharvest mango fruit and its possible mechanisms of action.

PubMed

Xu, Xiangbin; Lei, Huanhuan; Ma, Xiuyan; Lai, Tongfei; Song, Hongmiao; Shi, Xuequn; Li, Jiangkuo

2017-01-16

Anthracnose caused by Colletotrichum gloeosporioides is one of the most important postharvest diseases in mango fruit, often causing huge economic losses. In this study, the effect of 1-methylcyclopropene (1-MCP) against anthracnose in postharvest mango fruit and the mechanisms involved were investigated. 1-MCP induced reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation, damaged the mitochondria and destroyed the integrity of plasma membrane of spores of C. gloeosporioides, significantly suppressing spore germination and mycelial growth of C. gloeosporioides. 1-MCP also decreased the decay incidence and lesion expansion of mango fruit caused by C. gloeosporioides. For the first time this study demonstrated that 1-MCP suppressed anthracnose of postharvest mango fruit by directly inhibiting spore germination and mycelial growth of C. gloeosporioides, thus providing a promising strategy for disease control. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of Real-Time System for Urban Flooding by Surcharge of Storm Drainge and River Inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shim, J. B.; Won, C. Y.; Park, J.; Lee, K.

2017-12-01

Korea experiences frequent flood disasters, which cause considerable economic losses and damages to towns and farms. Especially, a regional torrential storm is about 98.5mm/hr on September 21, 2010 in Seoul. The storm exceeds the capacity of urban drainage system of 75mm/hr, and 9,419 houses. How to monitor and control the urban flood disasters is an important issue in Korea. To mitigate the flood damage, a customizing system was developed to estimate urban floods and inundation using by integrating drainage system data and river information database which are managed by local governments and national agencies. In the case of Korean urban city, there are a lot of detention ponds and drainage pumping stations on end of drainage system and flow is going into river. The drainage pumping station, it is very important hydraulic facility for flood control between river and drainage system. So, it is possible to occur different patterns of flood inundation according to operation rule of drainage pumping station. A flood disaster is different damage as how to operate drainage pumping station and plan operation rule.

Assessing the Economic Importance of Dasineura oxycoccana (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae) in Northern Highbush Blueberries.

PubMed

Hahn, Noel G; Isaacs, Rufus

2015-08-01

Infestation by blueberry gall midge, Dasineura oxycoccana Johnson, is common in northern highbush blueberries, but its effects on crop productivity are unknown. We examined whether infestation by blueberry gall midge reduces flower bud production when compared with uninfested shoots, and how infestation at different times affects the crop response. From the fall of 2009 to the spring of 2011, the number of flower buds on infested and uninfested shoots of blueberry bushes was counted and compared. Despite causing branching of vegetative growth, there was no significant effect of infestation on flower bud production. During the summer of 2010, damaged shoots were marked throughout the growing season in June, July, or August. The number of flower buds set per shoot declined with later infestation dates, and shoots damaged in August had significantly fewer buds than those damaged in June and July. We discuss the implications of these findings for management of blueberry gall midge in northern highbush blueberry. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Disintegration of cruciform and G-quadruplex structures during the course of helicase-dependent amplification (HDA).

PubMed

Li, Dawei; Lv, Bei; Zhang, Hao; Lee, Jasmine Yiqin; Li, Tianhu

2015-04-15

Unlike chemical damages on DNA, physical alterations of B-form of DNA occur commonly in organisms that serve as signals for specified cellular events. Although the modes of action for repairing of chemically damaged DNA have been well studied nowadays, the repairing mechanisms for physically altered DNA structures have not yet been understood. Our current in vitro studies show that both breakdown of stable non-B DNA structures and resumption of canonical B-conformation of DNA can take place during the courses of isothermal helicase-dependent amplification (HDA). The pathway that makes the non-B DNA structures repairable is presumably the relieving of the accumulated torsional stress that was caused by the positive supercoiling. Our new findings suggest that living organisms might have evolved this distinct and economical pathway for repairing their physically altered DNA structures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human impacts of hydrometeorological extremes in the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands derived from documentary sources in the 18th-19th centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolák, Lukáš; Brázdil, Rudolf; Valášek, Hubert

2014-05-01

The extent of damage caused by hydrometeorological events or extremes (HME) has risen up in the entire world in the last few years. Especially the floods, flash floods, torrential rains and hailstorms are the most typical and one of the most frequent kind of natural disasters in the central Europe. Catastrophes are a part of human history and people were forced to cope with their consequences (e. g. material damage, economical losses, impacts on agriculture and society or losses of human lives). This paper analyses the human impacts of HME in the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands (central part of the Czech Republic) on the basis of documentary sources from the 18th-19th centuries. The paper presents various negative impacts of natural disasters on lives and property and subsequent inconveniences of Czech peasants. The preserved archival documents of estates or domains became the primary sources of data (e. g. taxation reliefs, damaged records, reports of afflicted farmers, administrative correspondence etc.). Particularly taxation reliefs relate to taxation system in the Czech lands during the 17th-19th centuries allowing to farmers to ask for tax alleviation when their crops were significantly damaged by any HME. These archival documents are a highly valuable source for the study of human impacts of natural disasters. Devastating consequences of these extremes affected individual farmers much more than the aristocracy. Floods caused inundations of farmer's fields, meadows, houses and farm buildings, washed away the arable land with crops, caused losses of cattle, clogged the land with gravel and mud and destroyed roads, bridges or agricultural equipment. Afflicted fields became worthless and it took them many years to become became fertile again. Crop was also damaged by hailstorms, droughts or late/early frosts. All these events led to lack of food and seeds in the following year and it meant the decrease of living standard, misery and poverty of farmers. Acquired results could give better insight of human impacts of HME in history and help to compare the negative consequences in the past and present.

Using insurance data to learn more about damages to buildings caused by surface runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernet, Daniel; Roethlisberger, Veronika; Prasuhn, Volker; Weingartner, Rolf

2015-04-01

In Switzerland, almost forty percent of total insurance loss due to natural hazards in the last two decades was caused by flooding. Those flood damages occurred not only within known inundation zones of water courses. Practitioners expect that roughly half of all flood damages lie outside of known inundation zones. In urban areas such damages may simply be caused by drainage system overload for instance. However, as several case studies show, natural and agricultural land play a major role in surface runoff formation leading to damages in rural and peri-urban areas. Although many damages are caused by surface runoff, the whole process chain including surface runoff formation, propagation through the landscape and damages to buildings is not well understood. Therefore, within the framework of a project, we focus our research on this relevant process. As such flash flood events have a very short response time and occur rather diffusely in the landscape, this process is very difficult to observe directly. Therefore indirect data sources with the potential to indicate spatial and temporal distributions of the process have to be used. For that matter, post-flood damage data may be a profitable source. Namely, insurance companies' damage claim records could provide a good picture about the spatial and temporal distributions of damages caused by surface runoff and, thus, about the process itself. In our research we analyze insurance data records of flood damage claims systematically to infer main drivers and influencing factors of surface runoff causing damages to buildings. To demonstrate the potential and drawbacks of using data from insurance companies in relation to damages caused by surface runoff, a case study is presented. A well-documented event with data from a public as well as a private insurance company is selected. The case study focuses on the differences of the datasets as well as the associated problems and advantages respectively. Furthermore, the analysis of the data, especially the crucial identification of damages caused by surface runoff opposed to damages caused by other processes such as riverine flooding, drainage system surcharges etc. are discussed.

Flood Losses Associated with Winter Storms in the U.S. Northeast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ting, M.; Shimkus, C.

2015-12-01

Winter storms pose a number of hazards to coastal communities in the U.S. Northeast including heavy rain, snow, strong wind, cold temperatures, and flooding. These hazards can cause millions in property damages from one storm alone. This study addresses the impacts of winter storms from 2001 - 2012 on coastal counties in the U.S. Northeast and underscores the significant economic consequences extreme winter storms have on property. The analysis on the types of hazards (floods, strong wind, snow, etc.) and associated damage from the National Climatic Data Center Storm Events Database indicates that floods were responsible for the highest damages. This finding suggests that winter storm vulnerability could grow in the future as precipitation intensity increases and sea level rise exacerbate flood losses. Flood loss maps are constructed based on damage amount, which can be compared to the flood exposure maps constructed by the NOAA Office of Coastal Management. Interesting agreements and discrepancies exist between the two methods, which warrant further examination. Furthermore, flood losses often came from storms characterized as heavy precipitation storms and strong surge storms, and sometimes both, illustrating the compounding effect of flood risks in the region. While New Jersey counties experienced the most damage per unit area, there is no discernable connection between population density and damage amount, which suggests that societal impacts may rely less on population characteristics and more on infrastructure types and property values, which vary throughout the region.

Automatic Detection of Storm Damages Using High-Altitude Photogrammetric Imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litkey, P.; Nurminen, K.; Honkavaara, E.

2013-05-01

The risks of storms that cause damage in forests are increasing due to climate change. Quickly detecting fallen trees, assessing the amount of fallen trees and efficiently collecting them are of great importance for economic and environmental reasons. Visually detecting and delineating storm damage is a laborious and error-prone process; thus, it is important to develop cost-efficient and highly automated methods. Objective of our research project is to investigate and develop a reliable and efficient method for automatic storm damage detection, which is based on airborne imagery that is collected after a storm. The requirements for the method are the before-storm and after-storm surface models. A difference surface is calculated using two DSMs and the locations where significant changes have appeared are automatically detected. In our previous research we used four-year old airborne laser scanning surface model as the before-storm surface. The after-storm DSM was provided from the photogrammetric images using the Next Generation Automatic Terrain Extraction (NGATE) algorithm of Socet Set software. We obtained 100% accuracy in detection of major storm damages. In this investigation we will further evaluate the sensitivity of the storm-damage detection process. We will investigate the potential of national airborne photography, that is collected at no-leaf season, to automatically produce a before-storm DSM using image matching. We will also compare impact of the terrain extraction algorithm to the results. Our results will also promote the potential of national open source data sets in the management of natural disasters.

Landsliding and flooding event triggered by heavy rains in the Rize region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yalcin, Ali; Kavurmaci, M. Murat

2013-04-01

Rize province has been significantly damaged by frequent landslides and floods which are caused by severe rainfalls and result in many casualties. The area is prone to landslides because of the climate conditions, geologic, and land cover characteristics of the region. The most recent landslide occurred on August 26, 2010 in Gundogdu town. The landslides have caused large numbers of casualties and huge economic losses in the region. Thirteen people died, twenty houses collapsed, more than a hundred houses damaged, and one hundred fifty vehicles were damaged in the Gundogdu landslide. Flood event is often seen in the region of Rize, due to continuous rainfall. Floods cause huge loss of life and property in this region. Rainfall is the most frequent landslide-triggering factor in East Black Sea region, Turkey, especially Rize region. Rize is the rainiest city of Turkey. Total annual precipitation is over 2300 mm, and precipitation is equally distributed in each month. However, in August 26, 166.5 mm precipitation rained within 24 hours in the region and this rainstorm caused great damage. The intensity rainfall periods were become as an indicator of landslide activity. It is very important that the presence of suitable lithologic units for occurring landslides. There are appropriate materials to contributed constitution of landslides in the study area; completely weathered dacite. In addition, intensity land cover types as tea plantations have been blocked surface flows and rainfall is able to quickly penetrate into the soil through open tension cracks that appear in the landslide head and in stretching zones. According to the results of the analysis, the study area has been overlaid tea garden 70 % percentage approximately. Furthermore, the landslide risks have increased by devastation of land cover in this region. In this region, over-steepened slopes, slope saturation in areas of heavy rainfall, and removal of slope vegetation can also increase landslide potential. The combination of all these effects have been affected to the settlement areas and living people in the study area. In this study, the effects of all the factors were separately examined on landslides.

Evaluation of Dicyphus hersperus (Heteroptera: Miridae) for biological control of Frankliniella occidentalis (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) on greenhouse tomato.

PubMed

Shipp, J L; Wang, K

2006-04-01

The effectiveness of inoculative releases of the mirid predator Dicyphus hesperus Knight for control of Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) on greenhouse tomatoes was evaluated in terms of suppression of the population densities of F. occidentalis and associated fruit damage in the presence of the predator over two seasonal trials. An inoculative release of one D. hesperus per plant (approximately 0.1:10 predator:prey ratio) at a high F. occidentalis population density (140 thrips per plant) suppressed the thrips population density to a significantly lower level, compared with the nonrelease greenhouse, but not below a thrips level that caused economic fruit damage. As the predator:prey ratio increased to approximately 0.5:10 D. hesperus:F. occidentalis, the mean percentage of the thrips-damaged fruit in the D. hesperus release greenhouse decreased to 1.6%. However, the amount of fruit feeding by D. hesperus was highly correlated to the availability of prey (or predator:prey ratio) under greenhouse conditions. D. hesperus-induced fruit damage occurred when the predator:prey ratio was >1:10 D. hesperus:F. occidentalis. Considering the potential risk of fruit damage by D. hesperus and the need for effective control of F. occidentalis, a 0.5-1:10 D. hesperus:F. occidentalis ratio is recommended when the thrips population density is in the range of 60-150 thrips per plant.

Recent progress of highly efficient in vivo biological screening for novel agrochemicals in China.

PubMed

Li, Baoju; Yuan, Huizhu; Fang, Jichao; Tao, Liming; Huang, Qingchun; Qian, Xuhong; Fan, Zhijin

2010-03-01

This paper describes the recent progress of in vivo biological screening for pesticides in China. According to the criteria, including the severity of damage caused by pests and the economic value of the crops, the investigated insects, pathogens, herbs and other species in the agricultural field were selected as the main screening targets for pesticides. Corresponding in vivo microscreening methods have been established and applied in the pesticide screening procedure, which has higher reproducibility, a shorter time and greater efficiency that offset the drawbacks of conventional methods for pesticide screening.

Toxic effects of acid rain on aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Rutherford, G K

1984-08-01

The historical perspective as well as the nature and causes of acid precipitation are presented. The toxicological effects of acid precipitation on lakes, other water bodies, fish, and invertebrate fauna are reviewed. In addition, the effects of this phenomenon on soil productivity and forest growth are examined. It appears that grave toxic effects have been and are being experienced by aquatic systems, but there is little reliable evidence of economic damage to crops, natural vegetation, and soil and biological processes. There may be insidious long-term effects on terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in the more susceptible areas.

A brush fire forensic case.

PubMed

Rella, R; Sturaro, A; Parvoli, G; Ferrara, D; Casellato, U; Vadalà, G

2005-01-01

In Italy, every summer forest fires attract public attention due to the number of victims, the intensity of the fires, the areas devastated, the environmental damage and the loss of property. Excluding some fires by natural causes, other causes are related to the social, economic, and productive profile of the territory. The erroneous expectation is that wooded areas destroyed by fire can then be used for private interests. Often, a fire, started to clear a small area, can completely change the expected result, producing disaster, loss of property, destruction of entire forests and resident fauna, and kill innocent people. In this case report, the reconstruction of an arson scene, the analytical techniques and the results obtained are illustrated in this paper, with the aim of sharing with other research laboratories the current knowledge on forest fire.

Fertilizing Nature: A Tragedy of Excess in the Commons

PubMed Central

Good, Allen G.; Beatty, Perrin H.

2011-01-01

Globally, we are applying excessive nitrogen (N) fertilizers to our agricultural crops, which ultimately causes nitrogen pollution to our ecosphere. The atmosphere is polluted by N2O and NOx gases that directly and indirectly increase atmospheric warming and climate change. Nitrogen is also leached from agricultural lands as the water-soluble form NO3 −, which increases nutrient overload in rivers, lakes, and oceans, causing “dead zones”, reducing property values and the diversity of aquatic life, and damaging our drinking water and aquatic-associated industries such as fishing and tourism. Why do some countries show reductions in fertilizer use while others show increasing use? What N fertilizer application reductions could occur, without compromising crop yields? And what are the economic and environmental benefits of using directed nutrient management strategies? PMID:21857803

[Evaluation of resource exploitation value and ecosystem service loss in Mentougou District of Beijing City].

PubMed

Liu, Xu-Sheng; Li, Feng; Zhao, Dan; Wang, Bei-Bei

2009-06-01

By using the evaluation approach of ecosystem services (including market value, opportunity cost, restoration cost, and shadow project approaches), and combining with situation investigation, the ecosystem service loss in Mentougou District of Beijing City caused by coal resource exploitation in 1949-2006 was systematically evaluated. In the study area, coal mining mainly induced the cost increase of solid waste disposal and sink reclamation, and the losses in food production, water self-preserving, residents moving, and water and soil resources. The ecosystem service loss caused by the coal mining in 1949-2006 was about 54.3 billion Yuan RMB, approximately 9 times high of its market economic benefit (5.9 billion Yuan RMB). It was very difficult or needed a long time to restore the damaged ecosystem.

Landslides Cause Tsunami Waves: Insights From Aysén Fjord, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lastras, Galderic; Amblas, David; Calafat, Antoni M.; Canals, Miquel; Frigola, Jaime; Hermanns, Reginald L.; Lafuerza, Sara; Longva, Oddvar; Micallef, Aaron; Sepúlveda, Sergio A.; Vargas, Gabriel; Batist, Marc De; Daele, Maarten Van; Azpiroz, María.; Bascuñán, Ignacio; Duhart, Paul; Iglesias, Olaia; Kempf, Philipp; Rayo, Xavier

2013-08-01

On 21 April 2007, an Mw 6.2 earthquake produced an unforeseen chain of events in the Aysén fjord (Chilean Patagonia, 45.5°S). The earthquake triggered hundreds of subaerial landslides along the fjord flanks. Some of the landslides eventually involved a subaqueous component that, in turn, generated a series of displacement waves—tsunami-like waves produced by the fast entry of a subaerial landmass into a water body—within the fjord [Naranjo et al., 2009; Sepúlveda and Serey, 2009; Hermanns et al., 2013]. These waves, with run-ups several meters high along the shoreline, caused 10 fatalities. In addition, they severely damaged salmon farms, which constitute the main economic activity in the region, setting free millions of cultivated salmon with still unknown ecological consequences.

Effects of allopurinol on exercise-induced muscle damage: new therapeutic approaches?

PubMed

Sanchis-Gomar, F; Pareja-Galeano, H; Perez-Quilis, C; Santos-Lozano, A; Fiuza-Luces, C; Garatachea, N; Lippi, G; Lucia, A

2015-01-01

Intensive muscular activity can trigger oxidative stress, and free radicals may hence be generated by working skeletal muscle. The role of the enzyme xanthine oxidase as a generating source of free radicals is well documented and therefore is involved in the skeletal muscle damage as well as in the potential transient cardiovascular damage induced by high-intensity physical exercise. Allopurinol is a purine hypoxanthine-based structural analog and a well-known inhibitor of xanthine oxidase. The administration of the xanthine oxidase inhibitor allopurinol may hence be regarded as promising, safe, and an economic strategy to decrease transient skeletal muscle damage (as well as heart damage, when occurring) in top-level athletes when administered before a competition or a particularly high-intensity training session. Although continuous administration of allopurinol in high-level athletes is not recommended due to its possible role in hampering training-induced adaptations, the drug might be useful in non-athletes. Exertional rhabdomyolysis is the most common form of rhabdomyolysis and affects individuals participating in a type of intense exercise to which they are not accustomed. This condition can cause exercise-related myoglobinuria, thus increasing the risk of acute renal failure and is also associated with sickle cell trait. In this manuscript, we have reviewed the recent evidence about the effects of allopurinol on exercise-induced muscle damage. More research is needed to determine whether allopurinol may be useful for preventing not only exertional rhabdomyolysis and acute renal damage but also skeletal muscle wasting in critical illness as well as in immobilized, bedridden, sarcopenic or cachectic patients.

Identifying the driving forces of urban expansion and its environmental impact in Jakarta-Bandung mega urban region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pravitasari, A. E.; Rustiadi, E.; Mulya, S. P.; Setiawan, Y.; Fuadina, L. N.; Murtadho, A.

2018-05-01

The socio-economic development in Jakarta-Bandung Mega Urban Region (JBMUR) caused the increasing of urban expansion and led to a variety of environmental damage such as uncontrolled land use conversion and raising anthropogenic disaster. The objectives of this study are: (1) to identify the driving forces of urban expansion that occurs on JBMUR and (2) to analyze the environmental quality decline on JBMUR by producing time series spatial distribution map and spatial autocorrelation of floods and landslide as the proxy of anthropogenic disaster. The driving forces of urban expansion in this study were identified by employing Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model using 6 (six) independent variables, namely: population density, percentage of agricultural land, distance to the center of capital city/municipality, percentage of household who works in agricultural sector, distance to the provincial road, and distance to the local road. The GWR results showed that local demographic, social and economic factors including distance to the road spatially affect urban expansion in JBMUR. The time series spatial distribution map of floods and landslide event showed the spatial cluster of anthropogenic disaster in some areas. Through Local Moran Index, we found that environmental damage in one location has a significant impact on the condition of its surrounding area.

Value Assessment Study for Air quality in Regulation Services of Ecosystems Services target on NO2 using Remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeon, S. W.; Ryu, J.; Choi, Y.; Jung, H. I.; Jang, R.; Lee, J.

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the value of green space that regulates the air quality in the regulatory service classification of ecosystem services. In this study, statistical data and satellite images (GOME) were used to construct data and evaluate the control functions of the whole country. In order to evaluate the value, national economic activities are evaluated and typified based on national GDP. This is because the amount of No2 emissions and the damage caused by them are different depending on the speed and characteristics of national development. After that, regression models were made using land cover, change in urban green area ratio, NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index), increase or decrease in population, increase in urban area, altitude and slope, cardiovascular due to NO2 and respiratory population. After that, the value of green space was evaluated by applying the scenario of NO2 increase or decrease for each type. The value of green space was converted into economic value by increasing or decreasing the number of affected people and the damage amount when NO2 increased. The results of this study are expected to provide a basis for conservation of forests by assessing the value of greenery to control air quality globally.

Predicting the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association claim payout of commercial buildings from Hurricane Ike

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J. M.; Woods, P. K.; Park, Y. J.; Son, K.

2013-08-01

Following growing public awareness of the danger from hurricanes and tremendous demands for analysis of loss, many researchers have conducted studies to develop hurricane damage analysis methods. Although researchers have identified the significant indicators, there currently is no comprehensive research for identifying the relationship among the vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and economic losses associated with individual buildings. To address this lack of research, this study will identify vulnerabilities and hurricane indicators, develop metrics to measure the influence of economic losses from hurricanes, and visualize the spatial distribution of vulnerability to evaluate overall hurricane damage. This paper has utilized the Geographic Information System to facilitate collecting and managing data, and has combined vulnerability factors to assess the financial losses suffered by Texas coastal counties. A multiple linear regression method has been applied to develop hurricane economic damage predicting models. To reflect the pecuniary loss, insured loss payment was used as the dependent variable to predict the actual financial damage. Geographical vulnerability indicators, built environment vulnerability indicators, and hurricane indicators were all used as independent variables. Accordingly, the models and findings may possibly provide vital references for government agencies, emergency planners, and insurance companies hoping to predict hurricane damage.

Water and growth: An econometric analysis of climate and policy impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Hassaan Furqan; Morzuch, Bernard J.; Brown, Casey M.

2017-06-01

Water-related hazards such as floods, droughts, and disease cause damage to an economy through the destruction of physical capital including property and infrastructure, the loss of human capital, and the interruption of economic activities, like trade and education. The question for policy makers is whether the impacts of water-related risk accrue to manifest as a drag on economic growth at a scale suggesting policy intervention. In this study, the average drag on economic growth from water-related hazards faced by society at a global level is estimated. We use panel regressions with various specifications to investigate the relationship between economic growth and hydroclimatic variables at the country-river basin level. In doing so, we make use of surface water runoff variables never used before. The analysis of the climate variables shows that water availability and water hazards have significant effects on economic growth, providing further evidence beyond earlier studies finding that precipitation extremes were at least as important or likely more important than temperature effects. We then incorporate a broad set of variables representing the areas of infrastructure, institutions, and information to identify the characteristics of a region that determine its vulnerability to water-related risks. The results identify water scarcity, governance, and agricultural intensity as the most relevant measures affecting vulnerabilities to climate variability effects.

Damage Caused by the Rogue Trustee

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Banion, Terry

2009-01-01

Fifty-nine community college presidents and chancellors in 16 states report on the damage caused by rogue trustees. While the damage to presidents, other trustees, and faculty and staff is alarming, the damage these trustees cause the college suggests that the rogue trustee may be the single most destructive force ever to plague an educational…

The Biology and Control of the Greater Wax Moth, Galleria mellonella.

PubMed

Kwadha, Charles A; Ong'amo, George O; Ndegwa, Paul N; Raina, Suresh K; Fombong, Ayuka T

2017-06-09

The greater wax moth, Galleria mellonella Linnaeus , is a ubiquitous pest of the honeybee, Apis mellifera Linnaeus, and Apis cerana Fabricius . The greater wax moth larvae burrow into the edge of unsealed cells with pollen, bee brood, and honey through to the midrib of honeybee comb. Burrowing larvae leave behind masses of webs which causes galleriasis and later absconding of colonies. The damage caused by G. mellonella larvae is severe in tropical and sub-tropical regions, and is believed to be one of the contributing factors to the decline in both feral and wild honeybee populations. Previously, the pest was considered a nuisance in honeybee colonies, therefore, most studies have focused on the pest as a model for in vivo studies of toxicology and pathogenicity. It is currently widespread, especially in Africa, and the potential of transmitting honeybee viruses has raised legitimate concern, thus, there is need for more studies to find sustainable integrated management strategies. However, our knowledge of this pest is limited. This review provides an overview of the current knowledge on the biology, distribution, economic damage, and management options. In addition, we provide prospects that need consideration for better understanding and management of the pest.

Debris flow run-out simulation and analysis using a dynamic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melo, Raquel; van Asch, Theo; Zêzere, José L.

2018-02-01

Only two months after a huge forest fire occurred in the upper part of a valley located in central Portugal, several debris flows were triggered by intense rainfall. The event caused infrastructural and economic damage, although no lives were lost. The present research aims to simulate the run-out of two debris flows that occurred during the event as well as to calculate via back-analysis the rheological parameters and the excess rain involved. Thus, a dynamic model was used, which integrates surface runoff, concentrated erosion along the channels, propagation and deposition of flow material. Afterwards, the model was validated using 32 debris flows triggered during the same event that were not considered for calibration. The rheological and entrainment parameters obtained for the most accurate simulation were then used to perform three scenarios of debris flow run-out on the basin scale. The results were confronted with the existing buildings exposed in the study area and the worst-case scenario showed a potential inundation that may affect 345 buildings. In addition, six streams where debris flow occurred in the past and caused material damage and loss of lives were identified.

Safety and Liability Aspects of Solar Power Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakhu, Ram S.; Howard, Diane

2010-09-01

It is an undisputed fact that the global need for energy will grow exponentially in the future and the search for alternative energy sources will intensify. One alternative source will be space based solar power(SSP), to be collected in space and transmitted to Earth by solar power satellites(SPS). As the appropriate technology becomes proven, the economic and operational viability for the launch of SPS system(s) will, to a large extent, depend upon favorable political and legal determinants. One of such determinants relates to safety risks and possible liability of the operator(s) of SPS system(s). This paper identifies safety risks of, and analyses liability for, damage caused by SPS. Issues, specifically analyzed mainly under international law, include damage caused(in outer space, in the air and on the Earth) by electronic transmission, and mechanisms to manage liability including inter alia insurance coverage, waivers of liability, and dispute settlement mechanisms. The paper contains recommendations for the concerned governments(and their respective private entities) to take regulatory precautions in order to avoid the risks of possible liability and thereby enhances the chances for launch and operation of SPS system(s).

The Biology and Control of the Greater Wax Moth, Galleria mellonella

PubMed Central

Kwadha, Charles A.; Ong’amo, George O.; Ndegwa, Paul N.; Raina, Suresh K.; Fombong, Ayuka T.

2017-01-01

The greater wax moth, Galleria mellonella Linnaeus, is a ubiquitous pest of the honeybee, Apis mellifera Linnaeus, and Apis cerana Fabricius. The greater wax moth larvae burrow into the edge of unsealed cells with pollen, bee brood, and honey through to the midrib of honeybee comb. Burrowing larvae leave behind masses of webs which causes galleriasis and later absconding of colonies. The damage caused by G. mellonella larvae is severe in tropical and sub-tropical regions, and is believed to be one of the contributing factors to the decline in both feral and wild honeybee populations. Previously, the pest was considered a nuisance in honeybee colonies, therefore, most studies have focused on the pest as a model for in vivo studies of toxicology and pathogenicity. It is currently widespread, especially in Africa, and the potential of transmitting honeybee viruses has raised legitimate concern, thus, there is need for more studies to find sustainable integrated management strategies. However, our knowledge of this pest is limited. This review provides an overview of the current knowledge on the biology, distribution, economic damage, and management options. In addition, we provide prospects that need consideration for better understanding and management of the pest. PMID:28598383

Industrial Accidents Triggered by Natural Hazards: an Emerging Risk Issue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Basco, Anna; Salzano, Ernesto; Cozzani, Valerio

2010-05-01

Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, flooding or hurricanes have recently and dramatically hit several countries worldwide. Both direct and indirect consequences involved the population, causing on the one hand a high number of fatalities and on the other hand so relevant economical losses that the national gross product may be affected for many years. Loss of critical industrial infrastructures (electricity generation and distribution, gas pipelines, oil refineries, etc.) also occurred, causing further indirect damage to the population. In several cases, accident scenarios with large releases of hazardous materials were triggered by these natural events, causing so-called "Natech events", in which the overall damage resulted from the simultaneous consequences of the natural event and of the release of hazardous substances. Toxic releases, large fires and explosions, as well as possible long-term environmental pollution, economical losses, and overloading of emergency systems were recognised by post-event studies as the main issues of these Natech scenarios. In recent years the increasing frequency and severity of some natural hazards due to climate change has slowly increased the awareness of Natech risk as an emerging risk among the stakeholders. Indeed, the iNTeg-Risk project, co-funded by the European Commission within the 7th Framework Program specifically addresses these scenarios among new technological issues on public safety. The present study, in part carried out within the iNTeg-Risk project, was aimed at the analysis and further development of methods and tools for the assessment and mitigation of Natech accidents. Available tools and knowledge gaps in the assessment of Natech scenarios were highlighted. The analysis mainly addressed the potential impact of flood, lightning and earthquake events on industrial installations where hazardous substances are present. Preliminary screening methodologies and more detailed methods based on quantitative risk analysis were developed. Strategies based on the use of multiple information layers aiming at the identification of mitigation and early warning systems were also explored. A case-study in the Emilia-Romagna region is presented.

Quantitative risk assessment using empirical vulnerability functions from debris flow event reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luna, Byron Quan; Blahut, Jan; Camera, Corrado; van Westen, Cees; Sterlacchini, Simone; Apuani, Tiziana; Akbas, Sami

2010-05-01

For a quantitative risk assessment framework it is essential to assess not only the hazardous process itself but to perform an analysis of their consequences. This quantitative assessment should include the expected monetary losses as the product of the probability of occurrence of a hazard with a given magnitude and its vulnerability. A quantifiable integrated approach of both hazard and risk is becoming a required practice in risk reduction management. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to calculate physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk could suffer an impact. These results are then applied for vulnerability and risk calculations. The risk assessment has been conducted in the Valtellina Valley, a typical Italian alpine valley lying in northern Italy (Lombardy Region). On 13th July 2008, after more than two days of intense rainfall, several debris and mud flows were released in the central part of valley between Morbegno and Berbenno. One of the largest debris flows occurred in Selvetta. The debris flow event was reconstructed after extensive field work and interviews with local inhabitants and civil protection teams. Also inside the Valtellina valley, between the 22nd and the 23rd of May 1983, two debris flows happened in Tresenda (Teglio municipality), causing casualties and considerable economic damages. On the same location, during the 26th of November 2002, another debris flow occurred that caused significant damage. For the quantification of a new scenario, the outcome results obtained from the event of Selvetta were applied in Tresenda. The Selvetta and Tresenda event were modelled with the FLO2D program. FLO2D is an Eulerian formulation with a finite differences numerical scheme that requires the specification of an input hydrograph. The internal stresses are isotropic and the basal shear stresses are calculated using a quadratic model. The significance of calculated values of pressure and velocity were investigated in terms of the resulting damage to the affected buildings. The physical damage was quantified for each affected structure within the context of physical vulnerability, which is defined as the ratio between the monetary loss and the reconstruction value. Two different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained, which are functions of debris flow velocity and pressure, respectively. Prospective economic direct losses were estimated.

The Economic Value of Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.

2012-12-01

While demonstrating the economic value of science is challenging, it can be more direct for some Earth observations. For example, suppose a climate science mission can yield decisive information on climate change within a shortened time frame. How much should society be willing to pay for this knowledge today? The US interagency memo on the social cost of carbon (SCC) provides a standard for valuing damages from carbon emissions. We illustrate how value of information (VOI) calculations can be used to monetize the relative value of different climate observations. We follow the SCC, stipulating uncertainty in climate sensitivity, using discount rates of 2.5%, 3% and 5%, and using one of the Integrated Assessment Models sanctioned in SCC (DICE, Nordhaus 2008). We consider three mitigation scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), a moderate response (DICE Optimal), and a strong response (Stern). To illustrate results, suppose that we would switch from BAU to the Stern emissions path if we learn with 90% confidence that the decadal rate of temperature change reaches or exceeds 0.2 C/decade. Under the SCC assumptions, the year in which this happens, if it happens, depends on uncertain climate sensitivity and on the emissions path. The year in which we become 90% certain also depends on our Earth observations, their accuracy, and their completeness. The resolving power of a climate observing system cannot exceed climate system natural variability. All climate observations add noise to natural variability caused by observing limitations, including calibration errors and space/time sampling uncertainty. The basic concept is that more accurate observations can advance the time for societal decisions. The economic value of the resulting averted damages depends on the discount rate, and the years in which the damages occur. A new climate observation would be economically justified if the net present value (NPV) of the difference in averted damages, relative to the existing systems, exceeds the NPV of the system costs. We present illustrative results comparing the proposed CLARREO advance in satellite absolute calibration for climate change records to an existing system for detecting decadal temperature change and cloud feedback (i.e. climate sensitivity uncertainty). While CLARREO is used as an example, the value should be considered as relevant to an improved climate observing system, since societal decisions are unlikely to be based on one or a few observations. The VOI is found to depend on the required confidence level, the trigger value at which we would abandon the BAU emissions path, the path to which we switch, and the date at which the new system is launched. The VOI of CLARREO in this decision context is the surfeit of NPV of averted damages, relative to the existing system. Over all it is in the order of tens of trillions of US dollars. Among the noteworthy conclusions are (1) switching to either the DICE optimal or Stern emissions paths makes only a modest difference in the VOI of CLARREO, (2) raising the trigger value from 0.2C to 0.3C/decade, increases the VOI of CLARREO, while increasing the total NPV of climate damages, and (3) the choice of discount rate affects the VOI by a factor ~ 5. The results conclude that the economic value of advanced climate observing systems is dramatically larger than their cost, and argues for the continual enhancement of the SCC assessment process.

Economic and Ethical Consequences of Natural Hazards in Alpine Valleys (EE-Con)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortner, Florian; Brantl, Dirk; Meyer, Lukas; Steininger, Karl; Sass, Oliver

2015-04-01

The Alps and their population are particularly vulnerable to geomorphological and hydrological hazards and this problem might be amplified by ongoing climate change. Natural disasters cause severe monetary damage which often leads to the difficult question whether it socially pays to protect settlements at high costs or whether alternatively settlement areas should better be abandoned. By investigations in the Johnsbachtal and the Kleinsölktal (Styria), the interdisciplinary project "Economic and Ethical Consequences of Natural Hazards in Alpine Valleys" (EE-Con), funded by the Austrian Academy of Sciences, seeks to answer the following questions: (1) Are natural hazards and associated damages in fact increasing, and is this due to meteorological triggers, to anthropogenic factors or to internal process dynamics? (2) What is the perception and knowledge of local people, how is risk and risk prevention communicated? (3) What is the respective cost ratio between protection infrastructure, soft measures of adaptation and other options (e.g. reduction of settlement area)? (4) What legitimate claims to compensation do people have, how far does societal responsibility go and where does individual responsibility start if parts of the settlement area had to be abandoned? These questions will be tackled in an interdisciplinary cooperation between geography, economics and normative theory (philosophy). EE-Con will follow broadly the path of risk analysis and risk assessment, focusing on the temporal dimension (past - present - future) with the aim to unravel the history of natural hazards in the areas and to analyse the economic values involved. In the following, natural hazard scenarios for the future (2050 and 2100) will be developed considering the economic consequences. Besides this, the project deals with local knowledge, risk perception and risk communication, which will be investigated via group interviews and stakeholder workshops and be integrated into a human-ecological model. Therefore, local people and stakeholders are going to be involved in a transdisciplinary approach from the start of the project. The geographic and economic information will then be used to find proper weighing mechanisms answering the normative questions mentioned above. The questions of enduring the respective costs and of responsibility for protecting the respective entitlements will be investigated from an ethical, a legal, and an economic viewpoint. The overall outcome of the results should provide an integrative view on the economic and ethical consequences of natural hazards in alpine valleys.

Deep uncertainty and broad heterogeneity in country-level social cost of carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricke, K.; Drouet, L.; Caldeira, K.; Tavoni, M.

2017-12-01

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a commonly employed metric of the expected economic damages expected from carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Recent estimates of SCC range from approximately 10/tonne of CO2 to as much as 1000/tCO2, but these have been computed at the global level. While useful in an optimal policy context, a world-level approach obscures the heterogeneous geography of climate damages and vast differences in country-level contributions to global SCC, as well as climate and socio-economic uncertainties, which are much larger at the regional level. For the first time, we estimate country-level contributions to SCC using recent climate and carbon-cycle model projections, empirical climate-driven economic damage estimations, and information from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways. Central specifications show high global SCC values (median: 417 /tCO2, 66% confidence intervals: 168 - 793 /tCO2) with country-level contributions ranging from -11 (-8 - -14) /tCO2 to 86 (50 - 158) /tCO2. We quantify climate-, scenario- and economic damage- driven uncertainties associated with the calculated values of SCC. We find that while the magnitude of country-level social cost of carbon is highly uncertain, the relative positioning among countries is consistent. Countries incurring large fractions of the global cost include India, China, and the United States. The share of SCC distributed among countries is robust, indicating climate change winners and losers from a geopolitical perspective.

Delaying onion planting to control onion maggot (Diptera: Anthomyiidae): efficacy and underlying mechanisms.

PubMed

Nault, Brian A; Werling, Benjamin P; Straub, Richard W; Nyrop, Jan P

2011-10-01

Onion maggot, Delia antiqua (Meigen) (Diptera: Anthomyiidae), is an important pest of onion, Allium cepa L., in northern temperate areas, especially in the Great Lakes region of North America Management of D. antiqua relies on insecticide use at planting, but insecticide resistance can cause control failures that threaten the long-term viability of this strategy. Delaying the time onions are planted was investigated as an alternative management approach for D. antiqua and the ecological and behavioral mechanisms underlying host age and insect relationships were examined in laboratory and field experiments. Delaying onion planting by two to four weeks reduced damage to onions by 35 and 90%, respectively. Onions planted later emerged later and this reduced the period overwintered flies had to oviposit on the plants. Moreover, flies tended to lay few to no eggs on these young, late-planted onions. As anticipated, D. antiqua laid 4-8 times more eggs on older onions than on young onions, and older onions were more resilient to injury caused by D. antiqua neonates compared with younger onions. However, the resiliency to maggot attack lessened as the density of D. antiqua increased from 2 to 10 eggs per plant, which probably explains why greater levels of maggot damage are typically observed in early onion plantings compared with later plantings. Delaying onion planting until mid-May reduced D. antiqua damage without jeopardizing the period required to produce marketable yield, but this cultural tactic must be combined with other management strategies to prevent economic loss.

Sea Level Rise Impacts On Infrastructure Vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasqualini, D.; Mccown, A. W.; Backhaus, S.; Urban, N. M.

2015-12-01

Increase of global sea level is one of the potential consequences of climate change and represents a threat for the U.S.A coastal regions, which are highly populated and home of critical infrastructures. The potential danger caused by sea level rise may escalate if sea level rise is coupled with an increase in frequency and intensity of storms that may strike these regions. These coupled threats present a clear risk to population and critical infrastructure and are concerns for Federal, State, and particularly local response and recovery planners. Understanding the effect of sea level rise on the risk to critical infrastructure is crucial for long planning and for mitigating potential damages. In this work we quantify how infrastructure vulnerability to a range of storms changes due to an increase of sea level. Our study focuses on the Norfolk area of the U.S.A. We assess the direct damage of drinking water and wastewater facilities and the power sector caused by a distribution of synthetic hurricanes. In addition, our analysis estimates indirect consequences of these damages on population and economic activities accounting also for interdependencies across infrastructures. While projections unanimously indicate an increase in the rate of sea level rise, the scientific community does not agree on the size of this rate. Our risk assessment accounts for this uncertainty simulating a distribution of sea level rise for a specific climate scenario. Using our impact assessment results and assuming an increase of future hurricanes frequencies and intensities, we also estimate the expected benefits for critical infrastructure.

Viral haemorrhagic fevers imported into non-endemic countries: risk assessment and management.

PubMed

Bannister, Barbara

2010-01-01

Viral haemorrhagic fevers (VHFs) are severe infections capable of causing haemorrhagic disease and fatal multi-organ failure. Crimean-Congo, Marburg, Ebola and Lassa viruses cause both sporadic cases and large epidemics over wide endemic areas. Original articles and reviews identified by PubMed search and personal reading; European and United States national guidance and legislation. World Health Organization information, documents and reports. VHFs cause significant morbidity and mortality in their endemic areas; they can cause healthcare-related infections, and their broad diversity and range are increasingly recognized. There is uncertainty about the risks presented by VHFs in non-endemic countries, particularly in healthcare environments. Consensus on the best modes of care and infection control are only slowly emerging. With increasing commerce in rural and low-income areas, VHF outbreaks increasingly expand, causing social and economic damage. New ecologies, viral strains and clinical syndromes are being discovered. There is a great need for rapid diagnostic tests and effective antiviral treatments. Vaccine development programmes are challenged by multiple viral strains and the need for trials in rural communities.

Review of Avian Influenza Outbreaks in South Korea from 1996 to 2014.

PubMed

Mo, In-Pil; Bae, Yeon-Ji; Lee, Seung-Baek; Mo, Jong-Suk; Oh, Kwang-Hyun; Shin, Jeong-Hwa; Kang, Hyun-Mi; Lee, Youn-Jeong

2016-05-01

Since the first outbreak of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) in 1996, outbreaks of LPAI have become more common in Korea, leading to the development of a nationwide mass vaccination program in 2007. In the case of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), four outbreaks took place in 2003-04, 2006-07, 2008, and 2010-11; a fifth outbreak began in 2014 and was ongoing at the time of this writing. The length of the four previous outbreaks varied, ranging from 42 days (2008) to 139 days (2010-11). The number of cases reported by farmers that were subsequently confirmed as HPAI also varied, from seven cases in 2006-07 to 53 in 2010-11. The number of farms affected by the outbreaks varied, from a low of 286 (2006-07) with depopulation of 6,473,000 birds, to a high of 1500 farms (2008) with depopulation of 10,200,000 birds. Government compensation for bird depopulation ranged from $253 million to $683 million in the five outbreaks. Despite the damage caused by the five HPAI outbreaks, efficient control strategies have yet to be established. Meanwhile, the situation in the field worsens. Analysis of the five HPAI outbreaks revealed horizontal farm-to-farm transmission as the main factor effecting major economic losses. However, horizontal transmission could not be efficiently prevented because of insufficient transparency within the poultry industry, especially within the duck industry, which is reluctant to report suspicious cases early. Moreover, the experiences and expertise garnered in previous outbreaks has yet to be effectively applied to the management of new outbreaks. Considering the magnitude of the economic damage caused by avian influenza and the increasing likelihood of its endemicity, careful and quantitative analysis of outbreaks and the establishment of control policies are urgently needed.

Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engström, Kerstin; Lindeskog, Mats; Olin, Stefan; Hassler, John; Smith, Benjamin

2017-09-01

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate-economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model). We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road). For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Improving Resilience for California from a Plausible M9 Earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Wilson, R. I.; Bahng, B.; Barberopoulou, A.; Borrero, J. C.; Brosnan, D.; Bwarie, J.; Geist, E. L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, S. H.; Knight, W.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, C. E.; Nicolsky, D.; Oglesby, D. D.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K. A.; Real, C. R.; Ryan, K. J.; Suleimani, E.; Thio, H. K.; Titov, V.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

2013-12-01

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario models a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We present the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the tsunami scenario. The intended users are those who must make mitigation decisions before and rapid decisions during future tsunamis. Around a half million people would be present in the scenario's inundation area in residences, businesses, public venues, parks and beaches. Evacuation would likely be ordered for the State of California's maximum mapped tsunami inundation zone, evacuating an additional quarter million people from residences and businesses. Some island and peninsula communities would face particular evacuation challenges because of limited access options and short warning time, caused by the distance between Alaska and California. Evacuations may also be a challenge for certain dependent-care populations. One third of the boats in California's marinas could be damaged or sunk, costing at least 700 million in repairs to boats and docks, and potentially much more to address serious issues due to sediment transport and environmental contamination. Fires would likely start at many sites where fuel and petrochemicals are stored in ports and marinas. Tsunami surges and bores may travel several miles inland up coastal rivers. Debris clean-up and recovery of inundated and damaged areas will take days, months, or years depending on the severity of impacts and the available resources for recovery. The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (POLA/LB) would be shut down for a miniμm of two days due to strong currents. Inundation of dry land in the ports would result in 100 million damages to cargo and additional downtime. The direct exposure of port trade value totals over 1.2 billion, while associated business interruption losses in the California economy could more than triple that value. Other estimated damages include 1.8 billion of property damage and 85 million for highway and railroad repairs. In total, we have estimated repair and replacement costs of almost 3 billion to California marinas, coastal properties and the POLA/LB. These damages could cause $6 billion of business interruption losses in the California economy, but that could be reduced by 80-90% with the implementation of business continuity or resilience strategies. This scenario provides the basis for improving preparedness, mitigation, and continuity planning for tsunamis, which can reduce damage and economic impacts and enhance recovery efforts. Two positive outcomes have already resulted from the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Emergency managers in areas where the scenario inundation exceeds the State's maximum inundation zone have been notified and evacuation plans have been updated appropriately. The State has also worked with NOAA's West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center to modify future message protocols to facilitate effective evacuations in California. While our specific results pertain to California, the lessons learned and our scenario approach can be applied to other regions.

26 CFR 301.7426-2 - Recovery of damages in certain cases.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... in the case of negligence), or the sum of— (1) Actual, direct economic damages as defined in § 301... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Recovery of damages in certain cases. 301.7426... the United States § 301.7426-2 Recovery of damages in certain cases. (a) In general. In addition to...

Low Velocity Impact Damage to Carbon/Epoxy Laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nettles, Alan T.

2011-01-01

Impact damage tends to be more detrimental to a laminate's compression strength as compared to tensile strength. Proper use of Non Destructive Evaluation (NDE) Techniques can remove conservatism (weight) from many structures. Test largest components economically feasible as coupons. If damage tolerance is a driver, then consider different resin systems. Do not use a single knockdown factor to account for damage.

Natural Hazards and Supply Chain Disruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haraguchi, M.

2016-12-01

Natural hazards distress the global economy through disruptions in supply chain networks. Moreover, despite increasing investment to infrastructure for disaster risk management, economic damages and losses caused by natural hazards are increasing. Manufacturing companies today have reduced inventories and streamlined logistics in order to maximize economic competitiveness. As a result, today's supply chains are profoundly susceptible to systemic risks, which are the risk of collapse of an entire network caused by a few node of the network. For instance, the prolonged floods in Thailand in 2011 caused supply chain disruptions in their primary industries, i.e. electronic and automotive industries, harming not only the Thai economy but also the global economy. Similar problems occurred after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011, the Mississippi River floods and droughts during 2011 - 2013, and the Earthquake in Kumamoto Japan in 2016. This study attempts to discover what kind of effective measures are available for private companies to manage supply chain disruptions caused by floods. It also proposes a method to estimate potential risks using a Bayesian network. The study uses a Bayesian network to create synthetic networks that include variables associated with the magnitude and duration of floods, major components of supply chains such as logistics, multiple layers of suppliers, warehouses, and consumer markets. Considering situations across different times, our study shows desirable data requirements for the analysis and effective measures to improve Value at Risk (VaR) for private enterprises and supply chains.

Integrated assessment of socio-economic risks of dangerous hydrological phenomena in Russian coastal zones of the Baltic, the Azov and the Black Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zemtsov, Stepan; Baburin, Vyacheslav; Goryachko, Mariya; Krylenko, Inna; Yumina, Natalya

2013-04-01

In 2012, an integrated damage from floods in Russia was about 1 billion euros, floods have caused the death of over 200 people. It is one of the most pressing scientific topics, but most of the works devoted to natural risks assessment. The main purpose of this work is to estimate the influence of dangerous hydrological phenomena (e.g. floods, underflooding and surges) on society, using vulnerability and damage assessment techniques. The objectives are to examine domestic and foreign methodologies, to integrate them and to test on specific Russian territory. Foreign training was organized at UNU-EHS (Bonn, Germany). Three different methods were used for each stage of research. The first part of the research was devoted to estimation of potential damage for population and economy of the Baltic Sea coastal zones. The authors used a model, which takes into account direct damage (loss of life, destruction of buildings, etc.) as well as indirect effects of the first, second, etc. orders (loss of profits, loss of the budget, etc.). A database, based on satellite images, maps, yearbooks of Russian Statistical Service and reports of entities, has been prepared. The database is a matrix, in which the rows are coastal zones, and the columns are given indicators: number of people in port areas (people), cost of fixed assets (million rubles), investment (million rubles.), revenue / profit (million rubles.), etc. The authors identified zones with different depth of flooding, using satellite images, and calculated the direct and indirect costs, using the methodology of EMERCOM. Maximum direct potential damage for the Baltic coast is about 15,7 billion euros, but indirect damage is more than 25,5 billion euros. The second part of research was devoted to vulnerability assessment of coastal municipalities of Krasnodar Region. A database, as a matrix of 252 parameters from 2007 to 2009 for 14 coastal municipalities, was developed. The parameters were divided into several blocks according to UNU-EHS methodology: 'exposure' and 'vulnerability', consisting of 'susceptibility', 'coping capacity' and 'adaptive capacity'. Relevant indicators for each block were selected and verified by statistical methods. The authors estimated the share of people potentially exposed to flooding with the help of geographic information system. The authors, using the technique of World Risk Index (2011), calculated sub-indices for each block, and made the maps. Areas with the highest socio-economic risks were identified on the Azov and the Black sea coast: Slavyansky, Krymsky, Krasnoarmeysky, Temryuksky and Primorsko-Akhtarsky municipal districts. On the third stage, the main purpose was to integrate and use both approaches in evaluation of socio-economic risks on micro-geographical level for different categories of the population and different industries (agriculture, utilities, etc.), using 'field' data. Field study was conducted in Slavyansky municipal district of Krasnodar region and included opinion polls, special interviews with businessmen and authorities, collection of municipal statistics and data from companies, etc. Vulnerability maps, speed evacuation maps, maps of possible locations of warning systems and maps of high insurance risks were developed. Proposals for improvement of legislation for coastal zones were prepared. The conducted research has shown the importance of both social ('vulnerability'), and economic ('damage') components of risk assessment. Using the previously discussed methods individually does not bring desired results because of deficiencies of Russian statistics. It is essential for accurate risk assessment to use an 'ensemble' of methods (statistical, field observations, etc.) on micro geographic level. The work has a practical importance for improving safety of local communities.

Fear based Education or Curiosity based Education as an Example of Earthquake and Natural Disaster Education: Results of Statistical Study in Primary Schools in Istanbul-Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozcep, T.; Ozcep, F.

2012-04-01

Natural disaster reduction focuses on the urgent need for prevention activities to reduce loss of life, damage to property, infrastructure and environment, and the social and economic disruption caused by natural hazards. One of the most important factors in reduction of the potential damage of earthquakes is trained manpower. To understanding the causes of earthquakes and other natural phenomena (landslides, avalanches, floods, volcanoes, etc.) is one of the pre-conditions to show a conscious behavior. The aim of the study is to analysis and to investigate, how earthquakes and other natural phenomena are perceived by the students and the possible consequences of this perception, and their effects of reducing earthquake damage. One of the crucial questions is that is our education system fear or curiosity based education system? Effects of the damages due to earthquakes have led to look like a fear subject. In fact, due to the results of the effects, the earthquakes are perceived scary phenomena. In the first stage of the project, the learning (or perception) levels of earthquakes and other natural disasters for the students of primary school are investigated with a survey. Aim of this survey study of earthquakes and other natural phenomena is that have the students fear based or curiosity based approaching to the earthquakes and other natural events. In the second stage of the project, the path obtained by the survey are evaluated with the statistical point of approach. A questionnaire associated with earthquakes and natural disasters are applied to primary school students (that total number of them is approximately 700 pupils) to measure the curiosity and/or fear levels. The questionnaire consists of 17 questions related to natural disasters. The questions are: "What is the Earthquake ?", "What is power behind earthquake?", "What is the mental response during the earthquake ?", "Did we take lesson from earthquake's results ?", "Are you afraid of earthquake ?", "Could earthquake be predicted ?", "Does earthquake kill people or buildings ?", "What is fault?", "Who is earthquake scientist?", "Are the Moon, Sun and other planets caused the earthquake?", "Does the weather conditions trigger the earthquake?", "What is the cause of tsunami?", "What is cause of the flood?", " What is the cause of volcanic eruption?", "What is cause of the landslide?", "What is the cause of disasters?", "What is your feeling about the earthquake; curiosity or fear?". Answers of these questions are evaluated. In the result, the primary school students think that earthquakes and other events are both religious and scientific origin. As example; the answers of "What is your feeling about the earthquake; corusity or fear?" question are replied 81 % Fear and %19 Curiosity.

Statistical analysis of low-rise building damage caused by the San Fernando earthquake

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scholl, R.E.

1974-02-01

An empirical investigation of damage to low-rise buildings in two selected control areas within Glendale, California, caused by the ground motion precipitated by the San Fernando earthquake of February 9, 1971 is summarized. The procedures for obtaining the appropriate data and the methodology used in deriving ground motion-damage relationships are described. Motion-damage relationships are derived for overall damage and for the most frequently damaged building components. Overall motion-damage relationships are expressed in terms of damage incidence (damage ratio) and damage cost (damage cost factor). The motion-damage relationships derived from the earthquake data are compared with similar data obtained for lou-risemore » buildings subjected to ground motion generated by an underground nuclear explosion. Overall comparison results show that for the same spectral acceleration, the earthquake caused slightly more damage. Differences in ground-motion characteristics for the two types of disturbances provide the most probable explanation for this discrepancy. (auth)« less

Landslide Risk: Economic Valuation in The North-Eastern Zone of Medellin City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vega, Johnny Alexander; Hidalgo, César Augusto; Johana Marín, Nini

2017-10-01

Natural disasters of a geodynamic nature can cause enormous economic and human losses. The economic costs of a landslide disaster include relocation of communities and physical repair of urban infrastructure. However, when performing a quantitative risk analysis, generally, the indirect economic consequences of such an event are not taken into account. A probabilistic approach methodology that considers several scenarios of hazard and vulnerability to measure the magnitude of the landslide and to quantify the economic costs is proposed. With this approach, it is possible to carry out a quantitative evaluation of the risk by landslides, allowing the calculation of the economic losses before a potential disaster in an objective, standardized and reproducible way, taking into account the uncertainty of the building costs in the study zone. The possibility of comparing different scenarios facilitates the urban planning process, the optimization of interventions to reduce risk to acceptable levels and an assessment of economic losses according to the magnitude of the damage. For the development and explanation of the proposed methodology, a simple case study is presented, located in north-eastern zone of the city of Medellín. This area has particular geomorphological characteristics, and it is also characterized by the presence of several buildings in bad structural conditions. The proposed methodology permits to obtain an estimative of the probable economic losses by earthquake-induced landslides, taking into account the uncertainty of the building costs in the study zone. The obtained estimative shows that the structural intervention of the buildings produces a reduction the order of 21 % in the total landslide risk.

The Economic Impact of Air Pollution on Timber Markets: Studies from North America and Europe

Treesearch

Joseph E. de Steiguer; [Editor

1992-01-01

Six papers analyze potential economic effects of forest damage resulting from air pollution.Economic effects in the Southeastern United States, the United States as a whole, Canada, Finland, and Europe as a whole are considered.

Near-real-time Forensic Disaster Analysis: experiences from hurricane Sandy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunz, Michael; Mühr, Bernhard; Schröter, Kai; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Daniell, James; Khazai, Bijan; Wenzel, Friedemann; Vannieuwenhuyse, Marjorie; Comes, Tina; Münzberg, Thomas; Elmer, Florian; Fohringer, Joachim; Lucas, Christian; Trieselmann, Werner; Zschau, Jochen

2013-04-01

Hurricane Sandy was the last tropical cyclone of the 2012 Northern Atlantic Hurricane season that made landfall. It moved on an unusual track from the Caribbean to the East Coast of the United States from 24 to 30 October as a Category 1 and 2 Hurricane according to the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Along its path, the severe storm event caused widespread damage including almost 200 fatalities. In the early hours of 30 October, Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, N.J. Sandy was an extraordinary event due to its multihazard nature and several cascading effects in the aftermath. From the hydro-meteorological perspective, most unusual was the very large spatial extent of up to 1,700 km. High wind speeds were associated with record breaking storm surges at the U.S. Mid- Atlantic and New England Coast during high (astronomical) tide, leading to widespread flooding. Though Sandy was not the most severe storm event in terms of wind speed and precipitation, the impact in the U.S. was enormous with total damage estimates of up to 90 billion US (own estimate from Dec. 2012). Although much better data emerge weeks after such an event, the Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA) Task Force of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) made an effort to obtain a comprehensive and holistic overview of the causes, hazardous effects and consequences associated with Sandy immediately after landfall at the U.S. coast on 30 October 2012. This was done in an interdisciplinary way by collecting and compiling scattered and distributed information from available databases and sources via the Internet, by applying own methodologies and models for near-real time analyses developed in recent years, and by expert knowledge. This contribution gives an overview about the CEDIM-FDA analyses' results. It describes the situation that led to the extraordinary event, highlights the interaction of the tropical cyclone with other hydro-meteorological events, and examines the impacts such as social and economic losses including cascading effects, for example, due to power outages. It is examined how Sandy compares to historic hurricane events in the U.S., both from the hydro-meteorological and impact perspective. Direct and indirect losses are estimated by comparison with past events and with the help of an economic loss model that describes the interdependencies between various economic sectors (input-output approach) combined with an assessment of the industrial vulnerability against indirect damages.

Economic injury level for the coffee berry borer (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) using attractive traps in Brazilian coffee fields.

PubMed

Fernandes, F L; Picanço, M C; Campos, S O; Bastos, C S; Chediak, M; Guedes, R N C; Silva, R S

2011-12-01

The currently existing sample procedures available for decision-making regarding the control of the coffee berry borer Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) are time-consuming, expensive, and difficult to perform, compromising their adoption. In addition, the damage functions incorporated in such decision levels only consider the quantitative losses, while dismissing the qualitative losses. Traps containing ethanol, methanol, and benzaldehyde may allow cheap and easy decision-making. Our objective was to determine the economic injury level (EIL) for the adults of the coffee berry borer by using attractant-baited traps. We considered both qualitative and quantitative losses caused by the coffee borer in estimating the EILs. These EILs were determined for conventional and organic coffee under high and average plant yield. When the quantitative losses caused by H. hampei were considered alone, the EILs ranged from 7.9 to 23.7% of bored berries for high and average-yield conventional crops, respectively. For high and average-yield organic coffee the ELs varied from 24.4 to 47.6% of bored berries, respectively. When qualitative and quantitative losses caused by the pest were considered together, the EIL was 4.3% of bored berries for both conventional and organic coffee. The EILs for H. hampei associated to the coffee plants in the flowering, pinhead fruit, and ripening fruit stages were 426, 85, and 28 adults per attractive trap, respectively.

Floods in the United States: Magnitude and frequency

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarvis, Clarence S.; ,

1936-01-01

From time immemorial floods have transformed beneficent river waters into a menace to humanity. Man's progress toward economic stability has been repeatedly halted or even thrown backward by the interruption of his efforts to make effective use of rivers and of valley lands. This handicap is not imposed by the destructiveness of large rivers alone, or of rivers in widely separated areas, for there are few if any streams, brooks, or rivulets that are not subject to flows beyond their channel capacities. Yet, though man for ages has suffered seriously from recurring floods, he has not been deterred from continuing to extend his activities in areas that are virtually foredoomed to flood damage.Today in the United States serious floods may occur in any section in any year, and even, in some regions, several times a year. Many of these floods leave behind them the tragedy of death and disease and of property irreparably damaged. The aggregate direct property damage caused by floods in this country has been estimated roughly to average $35,000,000 a year. In addition there are serious indirect and intangible losses of great but not precisely calculable magnitude.

High effectiveness of tailored flower strips in reducing pests and crop plant damage.

PubMed

Tschumi, Matthias; Albrecht, Matthias; Entling, Martin H; Jacot, Katja

2015-09-07

Providing key resources to animals may enhance both their biodiversity and the ecosystem services they provide. We examined the performance of annual flower strips targeted at the promotion of natural pest control in winter wheat. Flower strips were experimentally sown along 10 winter wheat fields across a gradient of landscape complexity (i.e. proportion non-crop area within 750 m around focal fields) and compared with 15 fields with wheat control strips. We found strong reductions in cereal leaf beetle(CLB) density (larvae: 40%; adults of the second generation: 53%) and plant damage caused by CLB (61%) in fields with flower strips compared with control fields. Natural enemies of CLB were strongly increased in flower strips and in part also in adjacent wheat fields. Flower strip effects on natural enemies, pests and crop damage were largely independent of landscape complexity(8-75% non-crop area). Our study demonstrates a high effectiveness of annual flower strips in promoting pest control, reducing CLB pest levels below the economic threshold. Hence, the studied flower strip offers a viable alternative to insecticides. This highlights the high potential of tailored agri-environment schemes to contribute to ecological intensification and may encourage more farmers to adopt such schemes.

The economics of transboundary air pollution in Europe.

PubMed

Van Ierland, E C

1991-01-01

Acid rain is causing substantial damage in all Eastern and Western European countries. This article presents a stepwise linear optimisation model, that places transboundary air pollution by SO2 and NOx in a game theoretical framework. The national authorities of 28 countries are perceived as players in a game in which they can choose optimal strategies. It is illustrated that optimal national abatement programmes may be far from optimal if considered from an international point of view. Several scenarios are discussed, including a reference case, full cooperation, Pareto optimality and a critical loads approach. The need for international cooperation and regional differentiation of abatement programmes is emphasised.

The Scientific Assessment and Strategy Team

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1999-01-01

The flood of 1993 in the Upper Mississippi River Basin caused widespread devastation. The human and economic costs were high. The total flood and other related damage estimates were in the $10 billion to $16 billion range, with total Federal expenditures in excess of $5.4 billion. In response to the effects of the flood of 1993, the White House established the Scientific Assessment and Strategy Team (SAST) on November 24, 1993. The SAST?s goals are to provide scientific advice and assistance to policymakers and officials responsible for flood recovery and river basin management in the Upper Mississippi River Basin and to prepare a data base to support those goals.

National Economic Development Procedures Manual - Agricultural Flood Damage,

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-10-01

based on the conceptual framework of the Economic and Environmental Principles and Guidelines for Water and Related Land Resources Implementation...the planning process and the NED evaluacion ’- ". procedures for agriculture, as described in the P&G, are thei presented. Also identified are some...ood Ioss compu t at ion approach de ’(’ op4 t hie f I ond damage for hypothetical frequency flood events and weights the result to I V- II1. + . IV-11

Using Integrated Assessment Models to Estimate the Economic Damages from Temperature Related Human Health Effects in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilmore, E.; Calvin, K. V.; Puett, R.; Sapkota, A.; Schwarber, A.

2014-12-01

Climate change is projected to increase risks to human health. One pathway that may be particularly difficult to manage is adverse human health impacts (e.g. premature mortality and morbidity) from increases in mean temperatures and changing patterns of temperature extremes. Modeling how these health risks evolve over decadal time-scales is challenging as the severity of the impacts depends on changes in climate as well as socioeconomic conditions. Here, we show estimates of health damages as well as both direct and indirect economic damages that span climate and socioeconomic dimensions for each US state to 2050. We achieve this objective by extending the integrated assessment model (IAM), Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA). First, we quantify the change in premature mortality. We identify a range of exposure-response relationships for temperature related mortality through a critical review of the literature. We then implement these relationships in the GCAM by coupling them with projections of future temperature patterns and population estimates. Second, we monetize the effect of these adverse health effects, including both direct and indirect economic costs through labor force participation and productivity along a range of possible economic pathways. Finally, we evaluate how uncertainty in the parameters and assumptions affects the range of possible estimates. We conclude that the model is sensitive to assumptions regarding exposure-response relationship and population growth. The economic damages, however, are driven by the estimates of income and GDP growth as well as the potential for adaptation measures, namely the use and effectiveness of air conditioning.

Peste des Petits Ruminants virus: an emerging threat to goat farming in Pakistan.

PubMed

Abubakar, M; Munir, M

2014-08-01

Pakistan at present is having more than 60 million head of goats, which consist of about 37 well-recognized breeds found in different regions of the country. Although the goat farming on commercial level is escalating in Pakistan, there are threats, which result this initiative into a loss. Among these threats, Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) outbreaks are causing huge economic damages. In this study, three outbreaks of PPR were confirmed at three different commercial farms in various regions of Punjab province and their economic impact on small ruminants farming was calculated. The disease started after 1-2 months of the establishment of these farms as the animals were purchased from different livestock markets. Disease started with sudden onset of respiratory and enteric clinical signs and spreads quickly. Disease caused mortality and morbidity of 10-15% and 20-40%, respectively, within a time period of 01-03 weeks. At these three farms, 116 of 365 animals exhibited the clinical disease, with an overall morbidity rate of 31.78%. A total of 43 animals died with mortality rate of 11.78% (43/365) causing a direct financial loss of $4300 (Pakistan Rupees 430,000/-), while the indirect cost due to treatment, loss of animal body condition, reduction in market value, increase veterinary services and labour was $7911 (Pak Rs. 791,100/-). Taken together, the results demonstrate that there is an urgent need to assess the economic impact of the disease throughout the country and to give proper emphasis for controlling PPR in sensitive regions where it is discouraging the investment in goat farming. © 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Optimal CO2 mitigation under damage risk valuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crost, Benjamin; Traeger, Christian P.

2014-07-01

The current generation has to set mitigation policy under uncertainty about the economic consequences of climate change. This uncertainty governs both the level of damages for a given level of warming, and the steepness of the increase in damage per warming degree. Our model of climate and the economy is a stochastic version of a model employed in assessing the US Social Cost of Carbon (DICE). We compute the optimal carbon taxes and CO2 abatement levels that maximize welfare from economic consumption over time under different risk states. In accordance with recent developments in finance, we separate preferences about time and risk to improve the model's calibration of welfare to observed market interest. We show that introducing the modern asset pricing framework doubles optimal abatement and carbon taxation. Uncertainty over the level of damages at a given temperature increase can result in a slight increase of optimal emissions as compared to using expected damages. In contrast, uncertainty governing the steepness of the damage increase in temperature results in a substantially higher level of optimal mitigation.

Genetic variability affecting Exserohilum turcicum resistance in popcorn lines grown under high and low phosphorus conditions.

PubMed

Amaral, A T; Ribeiro, R M; Santos, P H D; Poltronieri, T P S; Vivas, J M S; Gerhardt, I F S; Carvalho, B M; Freitas, C S; Miranda, S B

2016-12-19

Northern leaf blight (NLB), caused by Exserohilum turcicum, is one of the main foliar diseases that affect popcorn culture. Farmers use many control measures to minimize damage caused by this disease, among which, the use of cultivars with genetic resistance is the most effective and economical. The aim of this study was to investigate genetic variability influencing resistance to NLB in 25 popcorn maize lines grown under high and low phosphorus conditions in relation to foliar fungal disease caused by E. turcicum. We evaluated the disease incidence and severity, by analysis of variance and cluster test (Scott-Knott). There was sufficient genetic variability between strains for resistance traits. Genotypic variance was higher than environmental variance, and had more discriminatory power. We conclude that new progenies could be selected for the establishment of future populations. P-7, P-9, L-59, L-71, and L-76 progenies possess promising characteristics that simultaneously reduce the severity and the incidence of NLB in popcorn plants.

Economic costs of electrical system instability and power outages caused by snakes on the Island of Guam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fritts, T.H.

2002-01-01

The Brown Tree Snake, Boiga irregularis, is an introduced species on Guam where it causes frequent electrical power outages. The snake's high abundance, its propensity for climbing, and use of disturbed habitats all contribute to interruption of Guam's electrical service and the activities that depend on electrical power. Snakes have caused more than 1600 power outages in the 20-yr period of 1978-1997 and most recently nearly 200 outages per year. Single outages spanning the entire island and lasting 8 or more hours are estimated to cost in excess of $3,000,000 in lost productivity, but the costs of outages that involve only parts of the island or those of shorter durations are more difficult to quantify. Costs to the island's economy have exceeded $4.5 M per year over a 7-yr period without considering repair costs, damage to electrical equipment, and lost revenues. Snakes pose the greatest problem on high voltage transmission lines, on transformers, and inside electrical substations.

Change in the immune function of porcine iliac artery endothelial cells infected with porcine circovirus type 2 and its inhibition on monocyte derived dendritic cells maturation

PubMed Central

Liu, Shiyu; Zou, Zhanming; Zhu, Linlin; Liu, Xinyu; Zhou, Shuanghai

2017-01-01

Porcine circovirus-associated disease is caused by porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) infection, which targets iliac artery endothelial cells (PIECs); it leads to severe immunopathologies and is associated with major economic losses in the porcine industry. Here, we report that in vitro PCV2 infection of PIECs causes cell injury, which affects DC function as well as adaptive immunity. Specifically, PCV2 infection downregulated PIEC antigen-presenting molecule expression, upregulated cytokines involved in the immune and inflammatory response causing cell damage and repair, and altered the migratory capacity of PIECs. In addition, PCV2-infected PIECs inhibited DC maturation, enhanced the endocytic ability of DCs, and weakened the stimulatory effect of DCs on T lymphocytes. Together, these findings indicate that profound functional impairment of DCs in the presence of PCV2-infected PIECs may be a potential pathogenic mechanism associated with PCV2-induced porcine disease. PMID:29073194

[Socio-economic aspects of epidemiology of helicobateriosis].

PubMed

Fedichkina, T P; Solenova, L G; Zykova, I E; German, S V; Modestova, A V; Kislitsyn, V A; Rakhmanin, Yu A; Bobrovnitsky, I P

There are considered special social and economic aspects of the epidemiology of Helicobacter pylori. These aspects acquired the particular importance for the last time due to the fact that the provision of the people with pure water has been becoming the focus of the attention of geopolitical and socio-economic interests in a number of countries. The availability ofpure drinking water serves a marker of the socio-economic state of the territory and the population living there. In Russia where different climatic conditions are deposited by considerable regional differences in the conditions of communal services caused both by various level of the socio-economic development of the territory, the supplementation with pure drinking water serves as the social determinant of the ecological conditions of the population’s life. This particularly has impact on the unfeasible technical state of the water distribution systems, microorganism ecology of which can substantially affect public health. The performed by authors a specialized screening ofpresented at the official web site of the joint-stock company «Mosvodokanal» current data concerning the quality of drinking water consumed by 2500 Moscovites, tested for the Helicobacter pylori infection revealed no deviations from the sanitary standards in the water received by the consumers. Along with that, the comparison of the map documents of the distribution of the Helicobacter pylori infection in Moscow with the distribution of citizens’ complaints of the decline of the quality of tap water has revealed a territorial fastening of the high values of the population infection rate of n^ylori and the urban sites with the greatest number of complaints. In the microbial ecology of water-distribution systems there are tightly aligned problems of their epidemiological safety, technical state and economic damage caused by corrosion as a result of microbiotic activity. In contrast to acute bacterial and viral infections which are deemed of the greatest importance when assessing the sanitary condition of water sources and water-distribution systems, the consequences of infection with H. pylori may not be manifestedfor a long time but some years later they may be manifested as serious chronic diseases (from gastritis to adenocarcinoma of the stomach and a wide range of extraintestinal pathologies), which causes great social and economic losses. Thus, the socio-economic aspect of the epidemiology of helicobacteriosis includes at least two components: the technic - the maintenance of the feasible technic and sanitary state of the water distribution systems and the medico-social - expenditures for screening and treatment of infected patients. In total they are an inseparable part of the prevention of socially-important diseases in the public health system.

Spatial patterns of aflatoxin levels in relation to ear-feeding insect damage in pre-harvest corn.

PubMed

Ni, Xinzhi; Wilson, Jeffrey P; Buntin, G David; Guo, Baozhu; Krakowsky, Matthew D; Lee, R Dewey; Cottrell, Ted E; Scully, Brian T; Huffaker, Alisa; Schmelz, Eric A

2011-07-01

Key impediments to increased corn yield and quality in the southeastern US coastal plain region are damage by ear-feeding insects and aflatoxin contamination caused by infection of Aspergillus flavus. Key ear-feeding insects are corn earworm, Helicoverpa zea, fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, maize weevil, Sitophilus zeamais, and brown stink bug, Euschistus servus. In 2006 and 2007, aflatoxin contamination and insect damage were sampled before harvest in three 0.4-hectare corn fields using a grid sampling method. The feeding damage by each of ear/kernel-feeding insects (i.e., corn earworm/fall armyworm damage on the silk/cob, and discoloration of corn kernels by stink bugs), and maize weevil population were assessed at each grid point with five ears. The spatial distribution pattern of aflatoxin contamination was also assessed using the corn samples collected at each sampling point. Aflatoxin level was correlated to the number of maize weevils and stink bug-discolored kernels, but not closely correlated to either husk coverage or corn earworm damage. Contour maps of the maize weevil populations, stink bug-damaged kernels, and aflatoxin levels exhibited an aggregated distribution pattern with a strong edge effect on all three parameters. The separation of silk- and cob-feeding insects from kernel-feeding insects, as well as chewing (i.e., the corn earworm and maize weevil) and piercing-sucking insects (i.e., the stink bugs) and their damage in relation to aflatoxin accumulation is economically important. Both theoretic and applied ramifications of this study were discussed by proposing a hypothesis on the underlying mechanisms of the aggregated distribution patterns and strong edge effect of insect damage and aflatoxin contamination, and by discussing possible management tactics for aflatoxin reduction by proper management of kernel-feeding insects. Future directions on basic and applied research related to aflatoxin contamination are also discussed.

Spatial Patterns of Aflatoxin Levels in Relation to Ear-Feeding Insect Damage in Pre-Harvest Corn

PubMed Central

Ni, Xinzhi; Wilson, Jeffrey P.; Buntin, G. David; Guo, Baozhu; Krakowsky, Matthew D.; Lee, R. Dewey; Cottrell, Ted E.; Scully, Brian T.; Huffaker, Alisa; Schmelz, Eric A.

2011-01-01

Key impediments to increased corn yield and quality in the southeastern US coastal plain region are damage by ear-feeding insects and aflatoxin contamination caused by infection of Aspergillus flavus. Key ear-feeding insects are corn earworm, Helicoverpa zea, fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, maize weevil, Sitophilus zeamais, and brown stink bug, Euschistus servus. In 2006 and 2007, aflatoxin contamination and insect damage were sampled before harvest in three 0.4-hectare corn fields using a grid sampling method. The feeding damage by each of ear/kernel-feeding insects (i.e., corn earworm/fall armyworm damage on the silk/cob, and discoloration of corn kernels by stink bugs), and maize weevil population were assessed at each grid point with five ears. The spatial distribution pattern of aflatoxin contamination was also assessed using the corn samples collected at each sampling point. Aflatoxin level was correlated to the number of maize weevils and stink bug-discolored kernels, but not closely correlated to either husk coverage or corn earworm damage. Contour maps of the maize weevil populations, stink bug-damaged kernels, and aflatoxin levels exhibited an aggregated distribution pattern with a strong edge effect on all three parameters. The separation of silk- and cob-feeding insects from kernel-feeding insects, as well as chewing (i.e., the corn earworm and maize weevil) and piercing-sucking insects (i.e., the stink bugs) and their damage in relation to aflatoxin accumulation is economically important. Both theoretic and applied ramifications of this study were discussed by proposing a hypothesis on the underlying mechanisms of the aggregated distribution patterns and strong edge effect of insect damage and aflatoxin contamination, and by discussing possible management tactics for aflatoxin reduction by proper management of kernel-feeding insects. Future directions on basic and applied research related to aflatoxin contamination are also discussed. PMID:22069748

Using GIS and Ahp for Planning Primer Transportation of Forest Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akay, A. E.; Yılmaz, B.

2017-11-01

Primer transportation is one of the most costly and time consuming forestry activities in extraction of timber from forest lands. Transportation methods are essentially determined based on terrain characteristics, especially ground slope. Besides, unsuitable machine selection and unplanned operations may cause ecological damages such as soil disturbance. Soil damage can lead to long term impacts on forest ecosystem. Thus, the optimum transportation methods should be determined by considering not only economic factors but also topographical factors and soil conditions. In recent decades, some of the advanced features of Geographical Information System (GIS) assist decision makers to solve such complex transportation problems with various constraints. In this study, it was aimed to plan forest transportation operation by using GIS integrated Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, considering ground slope, soil type, and available transportation equipment in the region. This method was implemented within the border of İnegöl Forest Enterprise Chief in the city of Bursa in Turkey. Alternative transportation method included cable system, chute system, skidder, and farm tractor. GIS-based method integrated with AHP found that skidder was the optimal transportation method for about 60% of the study area, while farm tractor was the second most suitable method with 25% ground cover. The results indicated that GIS-based decision support systems can be effectively used as rational, quick, and economic tool for forest transportation planning.

Construction, implementation and testing of an image identification system using computer vision methods for fruit flies with economic importance (Diptera: Tephritidae).

PubMed

Wang, Jiang-Ning; Chen, Xiao-Lin; Hou, Xin-Wen; Zhou, Li-Bing; Zhu, Chao-Dong; Ji, Li-Qiang

2017-07-01

Many species of Tephritidae are damaging to fruit, which might negatively impact international fruit trade. Automatic or semi-automatic identification of fruit flies are greatly needed for diagnosing causes of damage and quarantine protocols for economically relevant insects. A fruit fly image identification system named AFIS1.0 has been developed using 74 species belonging to six genera, which include the majority of pests in the Tephritidae. The system combines automated image identification and manual verification, balancing operability and accuracy. AFIS1.0 integrates image analysis and expert system into a content-based image retrieval framework. In the the automatic identification module, AFIS1.0 gives candidate identification results. Afterwards users can do manual selection based on comparing unidentified images with a subset of images corresponding to the automatic identification result. The system uses Gabor surface features in automated identification and yielded an overall classification success rate of 87% to the species level by Independent Multi-part Image Automatic Identification Test. The system is useful for users with or without specific expertise on Tephritidae in the task of rapid and effective identification of fruit flies. It makes the application of computer vision technology to fruit fly recognition much closer to production level. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

A 500-year history of floods in the semi arid basins of south-eastern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez García, Carlos; Schulte, Lothar; Peña, Juan Carlos; Carvalho, Filpe; Brembilla, Carla

2016-04-01

Floods are one of the natural hazards with higher incidence in the south-eastern Spain, the driest region in Europe, causing fatalities, damage of infrastructure and economic losses. Flash-floods in semi arid environments are related to intensive rainfall which can last from few hours to days. These floods are violent and destructive because of their high discharges, sediment transport and aggradation processes in the flood plain. Also during historical times floods affected the population in the south-eastern Spain causing sever damage or in some cases the complete destruction of towns. Our studies focus on the flood reconstruction from historical sources of the Almanzora, Aguas and Antas river basins, which have a surface between 260-2600 km2. We have also compiled information from the Andarax river and compared the flood series with the Guadalentín and Segura basins from previous studies (Benito et. al., 2010 y Machado et al., 2011). Flood intensities have been classified in four levels according to the type of damage: 1) ordinary floods that only affect agriculture plots; 2) extraordinary floods which produce some damage to buildings and hydraulic infrastructure; 3) catastrophic floods which caused sever damage, fatalities and partial or complete destruction of towns. A higher damage intensity of +1 magnitude was assigned when the event is recorded from more than one major sub-basin (stretches and tributaries such as Huércal-Overa basin) or catchment (e.g. Antas River). In total 102 incidences of damages and 89 floods were reconstructed in the Almanzora (2.611 km2), Aguas (539 km2), Antas (261 km2) and Andarax (2.100 km2) catchments. The Almanzora River was affected by 36 floods (1550-2012). The highest events for the Almanzora River were in 1580, 1879, 1973 and 2012 producing many fatalities and destruction of several towns. In addition, we identified four flood-clusters 1750-1780, 1870-1900, 1960-1977 and 1989-2012 which coincides with the periods of increased flood frequencies in the Andarax catchment. However, only the 1870-1900 flood-cluster is synchronic with the Guadalentín and Segura flood-periods, whereas the rest of flood-episodes are non-synchronic. The 2012 event, the largest flood in the Almanzora river since the 1973 event, produced in the lower stretch less damage than in the middle stretch because of structural mitigation measures such as reservoir and artificial river channelling. However, in the lower Antas and Aguas rivers the situation is different. The damages increased in 2012 as a result from the increased exposure of tourism infrastructure in the floodplain near the coastline during the last two decades. Traditional settlements of rural societies were located also in the lower river stretches at a higher elevation (e.g. fluvial terraces, glacis, slopes) like today in the higher and middle catchments.

Evaluating Post-Earthquake Building Safety Using Economical MEMS Seismometers

PubMed Central

Yin, Ren-Cheng

2018-01-01

The earthquake early warning (EEW)-research group at National Taiwan University has been developing a microelectromechanical system-based accelerometer called “P-Alert”, designed for issuing EEWs. The main advantage of P-Alert is that it is a relatively economical seismometer. However, because of the expensive nature of commercial hardware for structural health monitoring (SHM) systems, the application of SHM to buildings remains limited. To determine the performance of P-Alert for evaluating post-earthquake building safety, we conducted a series of steel-frame shaking table tests with incremental damage. We used the fragility curves of different damage levels and the interstory drift ratios (calculated by the measured acceleration of each story using double integration and a filter) to gauge the potential damage levels. We concluded that the acceptable detection of damage for an entire building is possible. With improvements to the synchronization of the P-Alert sensors, we also anticipate a damage localization feature for the stories of a building. PMID:29734736

Evaluating Post-Earthquake Building Safety Using Economical MEMS Seismometers.

PubMed

Hsu, Ting-Yu; Yin, Ren-Cheng; Wu, Yih-Min

2018-05-05

The earthquake early warning (EEW)-research group at National Taiwan University has been developing a microelectromechanical system-based accelerometer called “P-Alert”, designed for issuing EEWs. The main advantage of P-Alert is that it is a relatively economical seismometer. However, because of the expensive nature of commercial hardware for structural health monitoring (SHM) systems, the application of SHM to buildings remains limited. To determine the performance of P-Alert for evaluating post-earthquake building safety, we conducted a series of steel-frame shaking table tests with incremental damage. We used the fragility curves of different damage levels and the interstory drift ratios (calculated by the measured acceleration of each story using double integration and a filter) to gauge the potential damage levels. We concluded that the acceptable detection of damage for an entire building is possible. With improvements to the synchronization of the P-Alert sensors, we also anticipate a damage localization feature for the stories of a building.

Assessment of health and economic effects by PM2.5 pollution in Beijing: a combined exposure-response and computable general equilibrium analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Guizhi; Gu, SaiJu; Chen, Jibo; Wu, Xianhua; Yu, Jun

2016-12-01

Assessment of the health and economic impacts of PM2.5 pollution is of great importance for urban air pollution prevention and control. In this study, we evaluate the damage of PM2.5 pollution using Beijing as an example. First, we use exposure-response functions to estimate the adverse health effects due to PM2.5 pollution. Then, the corresponding labour loss and excess medical expenditure are computed as two conducting variables. Finally, different from the conventional valuation methods, this paper introduces the two conducting variables into the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the impacts on sectors and the whole economic system caused by PM2.5 pollution. The results show that, substantial health effects of the residents in Beijing from PM2.5 pollution occurred in 2013, including 20,043 premature deaths and about one million other related medical cases. Correspondingly, using the 2010 social accounting data, Beijing gross domestic product loss due to the health impact of PM2.5 pollution is estimated as 1286.97 (95% CI: 488.58-1936.33) million RMB. This demonstrates that PM2.5 pollution not only has adverse health effects, but also brings huge economic loss.

Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Direct Economic Flood Damages: the FloodRisk Free and Open-Source Software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Mancusi, L.; Cantisani, A.; Perrone, A.

2017-12-01

The considerable increase of flood damages in the the past decades has shifted in Europe the attention from protection against floods to managing flood risks. In this context, the expected damages assessment represents a crucial information within the overall flood risk management process. The present paper proposes an open source software, called FloodRisk, that is able to operatively support stakeholders in the decision making processes with a what-if approach by carrying out the rapid assessment of the flood consequences, in terms of direct economic damage and loss of human lives. The evaluation of the damage scenarios, trough the use of the GIS software proposed here, is essential for cost-benefit or multi-criteria analysis of risk mitigation alternatives. However, considering that quantitative assessment of flood damages scenarios is characterized by intrinsic uncertainty, a scheme has been developed to identify and quantify the role of the input parameters in the total uncertainty of flood loss model application in urban areas with mild terrain and complex topography. By the concept of parallel models, the contribution of different module and input parameters to the total uncertainty is quantified. The results of the present case study have exhibited a high epistemic uncertainty on the damage estimation module and, in particular, on the type and form of the utilized damage functions, which have been adapted and transferred from different geographic and socio-economic contexts because there aren't depth-damage functions that are specifically developed for Italy. Considering that uncertainty and sensitivity depend considerably on local characteristics, the epistemic uncertainty associated with the risk estimate is reduced by introducing additional information into the risk analysis. In the light of the obtained results, it is evident the need to produce and disseminate (open) data to develop micro-scale vulnerability curves. Moreover, the urgent need to push forward research into the implementation of methods and models for the assimilation of uncertainties in decision-making processes emerges.

Fusarium species as pathogen on orchids.

PubMed

Srivastava, Shikha; Kadooka, Chris; Uchida, Janice Y

2018-03-01

The recent surge in demand for exotic ornamental crops such as orchids has led to a rise in international production, and a sharp increase in the number of plant and plant products moving between countries. Along with the plants, diseases are also being transported and introduced into new areas. Fusarium is one of the major diseases causing pathogens infecting orchids that is spreading through international trade. Studies have identified several species of Fusarium associated with orchids, some are pathogenic and cause symptoms such as leaf and flower spots, leaf or sheath blights, pseudostem or root rots, and wilts. Infection and damage caused by Fusarium reduces the quality of plants and flowers, and can cause severe economic losses. This review documents the current status of the Fusarium-orchid interaction, and illustrates challenges and future perspectives based on the available literature. This review is the first of Fusarium and orchid interactions, and integrates diverse results that both furthers the understanding and knowledge of this disease complex, and will enable the development of effective disease management practices. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Bad Actors Criticality Assessment for Pipeline system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasir, Meseret; Chong, Kit wee; Osman, Sabtuni; Siaw Khur, Wee

2015-04-01

Failure of a pipeline system could bring huge economic loss. In order to mitigate such catastrophic loss, it is required to evaluate and rank the impact of each bad actor of the pipeline system. In this study, bad actors are known as the root causes or any potential factor leading to the system downtime. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is used to analyze the probability of occurrence for each bad actor. Bimbaum's Importance and criticality measure (BICM) is also employed to rank the impact of each bad actor on the pipeline system failure. The results demonstrate that internal corrosion; external corrosion and construction damage are critical and highly contribute to the pipeline system failure with 48.0%, 12.4% and 6.0% respectively. Thus, a minor improvement in internal corrosion; external corrosion and construction damage would bring significant changes in the pipeline system performance and reliability. These results could also be useful to develop efficient maintenance strategy by identifying the critical bad actors.

Crop Damage: The Hail Size Factor.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez, J. L.; Fraile, R.; de La Madrid, J. L.; de La Fuente, M. T.; Rodríguez, P.; Castro, A.

1996-09-01

Between 1986 and 1992 a research project was developed and carried out on hail climatology and the economic repercussions of hail on agriculture in León (northwestern Spain). A target area with an extent of 6825 km2 was defined, within which a network of meteorological observers was established at an average density of 1 per 17 km2. A network of 250 hailpads installed in a grid formation was also laid out over an area of 1000 km2 inside the target area. The frequent occurrence of hailfalls—122 hail days over seven consecutive summers—provided a detailed database and allowed several climatological studies to be made. Crop damage was also closely monitored and quantified. Barley and wheat were selected as crops on which to base an analysis of the relationship between hailfall characteristics and crop damage. As the resistance of plants to hailstones is held to vary according to their physiological state, four different stages of plant growth were defined, beginning with the formation of grain heads.An important conclusion was drawn: the dispersion of percentages of damage always covers the possible variations in resistance caused by the physiological state of the plants. As a result, using only minimal information about hailfall characteristics—namely, the initial reports of observers regarding hailstone size—a working statistical model has successfully been constructed to predict losses to barley and wheat, using data provided by the León hail project.

Assessment of Damages to Commercial Fisheries and Marine Environment of Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, Resulting from the Seki Oil Spill of March 1994: A Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pearson, Walter H.; Al-Ghais, Saif M.; Neff, Jerry M.

1998-12-01

Historically, about half the oil transported through the global marine environment has come through the Arabian Gulf and the annual input of oil to the gulf's marine environment is skewed toward sources connected with marine transport. As a case study, we assess the damages from an oil spill caused by a collision between the crude oil tankers Baynuna and the Seki on 30 March 1994. The collision released approximately 16,000 metric tons (MT) of light Iranian crude oil into the coastal waters of the Emirate of Fujairah, United Arab Emirates. Under the sponsorship of the government of Fujairah, we analyzemore » the effects on commercial fisheries and marine environment of Fujairah resulting from the spill. This analysis was the first comprehensive natural resource damage assessment conducted in this area. The major difficulty was to establish the economic damages associated with the environmental contamination and fisheries declines. We adapt an established compensation schedule to the UA E situation. Information on the amount and type of oil spilled, the amount of oil recovered, the season, the habitats oiled, the resources exposed, and the sensitivity of the resources is then used to establish the conic value of losses associated with environmental contamination and fisheries decline.« less

Documentation for the Southeast Asia seismic hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles; Haller, Kathleen; Dewey, James; Luco, Nicolas; Crone, Anthony; Lidke, David; Rukstales, Kenneth

2007-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Southeast Asia Seismic Hazard Project originated in response to the 26 December 2004 Sumatra earthquake (M9.2) and the resulting tsunami that caused significant casualties and economic losses in Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives. During the course of this project, several great earthquakes ruptured subduction zones along the southern coast of Indonesia (fig. 1) causing additional structural damage and casualties in nearby communities. Future structural damage and societal losses from large earthquakes can be mitigated by providing an advance warning of tsunamis and introducing seismic hazard provisions in building codes that allow buildings and structures to withstand strong ground shaking associated with anticipated earthquakes. The Southeast Asia Seismic Hazard Project was funded through a United States Agency for International Development (USAID)—Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System to develop seismic hazard maps that would assist engineers in designing buildings that will resist earthquake strong ground shaking. An important objective of this project was to discuss regional hazard issues with building code officials, scientists, and engineers in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The code communities have been receptive to these discussions and are considering updating the Thailand and Indonesia building codes to incorporate new information (for example, see notes from Professor Panitan Lukkunaprasit, Chulalongkorn University in Appendix A).

Long-term monitoring on environmental disasters using multi-source remote sensing technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Y. C.; Chen, C. F.

2017-12-01

Environmental disasters are extreme events within the earth's system that cause deaths and injuries to humans, as well as causing damages and losses of valuable assets, such as buildings, communication systems, farmlands, forest and etc. In disaster management, a large amount of multi-temporal spatial data is required. Multi-source remote sensing data with different spatial, spectral and temporal resolutions is widely applied on environmental disaster monitoring. With multi-source and multi-temporal high resolution images, we conduct rapid, systematic and seriate observations regarding to economic damages and environmental disasters on earth. It is based on three monitoring platforms: remote sensing, UAS (Unmanned Aircraft Systems) and ground investigation. The advantages of using UAS technology include great mobility and availability in real-time rapid and more flexible weather conditions. The system can produce long-term spatial distribution information from environmental disasters, obtaining high-resolution remote sensing data and field verification data in key monitoring areas. It also supports the prevention and control on ocean pollutions, illegally disposed wastes and pine pests in different scales. Meanwhile, digital photogrammetry can be applied on the camera inside and outside the position parameters to produce Digital Surface Model (DSM) data. The latest terrain environment information is simulated by using DSM data, and can be used as references in disaster recovery in the future.

Characterization of Insect Resistance Loci in the USDA Soybean Germplasm Collection Using Genome-Wide Association Studies

PubMed Central

Chang, Hao-Xun; Hartman, Glen L.

2017-01-01

Management of insects that cause economic damage to yields of soybean mainly rely on insecticide applications. Sources of resistance in soybean plant introductions (PIs) to different insect pests have been reported, and some of these sources, like for the soybean aphid (SBA), have been used to develop resistant soybean cultivars. With the availability of SoySNP50K and the statistical power of genome-wide association studies, we integrated phenotypic data for beet armyworm, Mexican bean beetle (MBB), potato leafhopper (PLH), SBA, soybean looper (SBL), velvetbean caterpillar (VBC), and chewing damage caused by unspecified insects for a comprehensive understanding of insect resistance in the United States Department of Agriculture Soybean Germplasm Collection. We identified significant single nucleotide (SNP) polymorphic markers for MBB, PLH, SBL, and VBC, and we highlighted several leucine-rich repeat-containing genes and myeloblastosis transcription factors within the high linkage disequilibrium region surrounding significant SNP markers. Specifically for soybean resistance to PLH, we found the PLH locus is close but distinct to a locus for soybean pubescence density on chromosome 12. The results provide genetic support that pubescence density may not directly link to PLH resistance. This study offers a novel insight of soybean resistance to four insect pests and reviews resistance mapping studies for major soybean insects. PMID:28555141

Economic Analysis of Biological Invasions in Forests

Treesearch

Tomas P. Holmes; Julian Aukema; Jeffrey Englin; Robert G. Haight; Kent Kovacs; Brian Leung

2014-01-01

Biological invasions of native forests by nonnative pests result from complex stochastic processes that are difficult to predict. Although economic optimization models describe efficient controls across the stages of an invasion, the ability to calibrate such models is constrained by lack of information on pest population dynamics and consequent economic damages. Here...

Characteristics and Impacts of the severe Hailstorm on 28 July 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunz, Michael; Jürgen Punge, Heinz; Fluck, Elody; Schmidberger, Manuel; Blahak, Ulrich; Handwerker, Jan; Mohr, Susanna; Mühr, Bernhard

2015-04-01

On 27/28 July, two severe supercell thunderstorms in Germany caused unexpected extreme losses of 3.1 bn EUR(insured) and 4.0 bn EUR(economic), respectively. According to the recently published damage statistics of Munich Re for the year 2013, these hail events were the costliest natural catastrophe in worldwide for that year ranked by insured losses. This example exemplifies the large damage potential related to hail events, which is still underestimated both by the public and the insurance industry. On 27 July, the first supercell moved over the federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony. Large hail with diameters of up to 7.5 cm according to observations archived in the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD) caused severe damage especially over the Volkswagen factory in Wolfsburg. One day later, on 28 July, another supercell formed upstream of the Black Forest Mountains and moved almost parallel over the Swabian Jura and Bavaria. Hail with diameters of up to 8 cm fell over a heavily populated region between the cities of Reutlingen and Tübingen. In this area, exposed assets are extremely high, which partly explain the high total loss. Approximately 100,000 buildings and 50,000 automobiles (not considered are the damaged automobiles at the parking lot in Wolfsburg) were severely damaged by these two events. Considering the single event definition over a 72-hr period, which is usually applied in the insurance industry, these hailstorms were one of the most expensive loss events in Germany. In this paper, we investigate the severe hailstorm on 28 July from different views. By using and combining available observational data sets, the objective is to reconstruct the whole events at a very high resolution and to examine the conditions that are most relevant for convective initiation and the further development of the organized convective cell. Using a series of photos of damaged objects the aim is to relate different object classes and hail stone sizes. Relations between radar-derived intensity and damage frequency are derived on the basis of insurance loss data provided by a special crop insurer. These analyses also reveal to what extent past hailstorms, where observations are usually scarce, can be reconstructed reliably from insurance data. Using a radar-derived event set of past hailstorms in Germany over a 9-year period, the hail storm is put in the historic context.

The Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: New Damage Functions from a Meta-Analsis and the GGCMI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, F. C.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Hertel, T. W.; Diaz, D.

2016-12-01

Substantial advances have been made in recent years in understanding the effects of climate change on agriculture, but this is not currently represented in economic models used to quantify the benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, the science regarding climate change impacts on agriculture in these models dates to the early 1990s or before. In this paper we derive new economic damage functions for the agricultural sector based on two methods for aggregating current scientific understanding of the impacts of warming on yields. We first present a new meta-analysis based on a review of the agronomic literature performed for the IPCC 5th Assessment Report and compare results from this approach with findings from the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI). We find yield impacts implied by the meta-analysis are generally more negative than those from the GGCMI, particularly at higher latitudes, but show substantial agreement in many areas. We then use both yield products as input to the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in order to estimate the welfare consequences of these yield shocks and to produce two new economic damage functions. These damage functions are consistently more negative than the current representation of agricultural damages in Integrated Asessment Models (IAMs), in some cases substantially so. Replacing the existing damage functions with those based on more recent science increases the social cost of carbon (SCC) by between 43% (GGCMI) and 143% (Meta-Analysis). In addition to presenting a new mutli-crop, multi-model gridded yield impact prouct that complements the GGCMI, this is also the first end-to-end study that directly links the biophysical impacts of climate change to the SCC, something we believe essential to improving the integrity of IAMs going forward.

Prospecting of popcorn hybrids for resistance to fall armyworm.

PubMed

Crubelati-Mulati, N C S; Scapim, C A; Albuquerque, F A; Amaral Junior, A T; Vivas, M; Rodovalho, M A

2014-08-26

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, is the pest that causes the greatest economic losses for both common corn and popcorn crops, and the use of resistant plant genotypes is an important tool for integrated pest management. The goal of the present study was to evaluate the damage caused by S. frugiperda on single-cross popcorn hybrids under field conditions with natural infestation as well as to study the effect of 11 popcorn hybrids on the S. frugiperda life cycle under laboratory conditions. A completely randomized block design with 4 replicates was used for the field experiment, and a completely randomized design with 10 replicates was used for the laboratory experiment. In the field experiment, the damage caused by fall armyworm, grain yield, and popping expansion were quantified, and a diallel analysis was performed to select the best hybrids. For the laboratory experiment, caterpillars were obtained from laboratory cultures kept on an artificial diet and were fed with leaves from the 11 hybrids. Hybrids P7.0 x P9.4, P7.1 x P9.6, P7.2.0 x P9.3, P7.4.0 x P9.1 and P7.4.1 x P9.4 exhibited negative specific combining ability for injury by fall armyworm and positive specific combining ability for yield and popping expansion. In the laboratory experiment, the hybrids influenced the mean larval stage duration, mean larval mass, final larval mass, pupal stage duration, mean pupal mass, and adult longevity.

A dynamic wheel-rail impact analysis of railway track under wheel flat by finite element analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bian, Jian; Gu, Yuantong; Murray, Martin Howard

2013-06-01

Wheel-rail interaction is one of the most important research topics in railway engineering. It involves track impact response, track vibration and track safety. Track structure failures caused by wheel-rail impact forces can lead to significant economic loss for track owners through damage to rails and to the sleepers beneath. Wheel-rail impact forces occur because of imperfections in the wheels or rails such as wheel flats, irregular wheel profiles, rail corrugations and differences in the heights of rails connected at a welded joint. A wheel flat can cause a large dynamic impact force as well as a forced vibration with a high frequency, which can cause damage to the track structure. In the present work, a three-dimensional finite element (FE) model for the impact analysis induced by the wheel flat is developed by the use of the FE analysis (FEA) software package ANSYS and validated by another validated simulation. The effect of wheel flats on impact forces is thoroughly investigated. It is found that the presence of a wheel flat will significantly increase the dynamic impact force on both rail and sleeper. The impact force will monotonically increase with the size of wheel flats. The relationships between the impact force and the wheel flat size are explored from this FEA and they are important for track engineers to improve their understanding of the design and maintenance of the track system.

Hepatoprotective activity of sea cucumber Phyllophorus sp. extract in carp (Cyprinus carpio)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulmartiwi, Laksmi; Triastuti, Juni; Andriyono, Sapto; Umami, Mardiah Rahma

2017-02-01

Many procedures continuously in aquaculture and scientific research like tagging and vaccinating cause pain, involving damaging tissue and also cause stress responses in fish. Stress responses in fish influence liver because liver have vital role to supply energy and metabolism. Histology alteration in liver is caused by stress response like changes of vacuolation hepatocyte and characteristic colour. Triterpenoid was known had hepatoprotective activity. One of marine organism contained triterpenoid was sea cucumber. Result of research showed that liver tissue in fish with injected acetic acid 5 % (in upper lip) as pain stimulus have histopathology damages such as pyknosis (medium damage level) and oedema (heavy damage level) after 8 hour injection. Injected Lidocaine 1mg/fish as analgesic drug have histopathology damages such as oedema (heavy damages level), necrosis and pyknosis (low damages level). Injected acetic acid 5 % (in upper lip) and ethanolic extract of sea cucumber Phyllophorus sp. dose 5 mg/50 gr body weight shown histopathology damages such as necrosis, edema (medium damage level) and pyknosis (low damage level).

44 CFR 206.435 - Project identification and selection criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... potential loss of life, loss of essential services, damage to critical facilities, or economic hardship on..., environmental enhancement, and economic recovery, when appropriate. [55 FR 35537, Aug. 30, 1990, as amended at...

INHIBITION OF FRIED MEAT-INDUCED DNA DAMAGE: A DIETARY INTERVENTION STUDY IN HUMANS

EPA Science Inventory

Dietary exposures have been implicated as risk factors in colorectal cancer. Such agents may act by causing DNA damage or may be protective against DNA damage. The effects of dietary exposures in causing or preventing damage have not been assessed directly in colon tissues. In th...

Identification of sandstone core damage using scanning electron microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, Abdul Razak; Jaafar, Mohd Zaidi; Sulaiman, Wan Rosli Wan; Ismail, Issham; Shiunn, Ng Yinn

2017-12-01

Particles and fluids invasion into the pore spaces causes serious damage to the formation, resulting reduction in petroleum production. In order to prevent permeability damage for a well effectively, the damage mechanisms should be identified. In this study, water-based drilling fluid was compared to oil-based drilling fluids based on microscopic observation. The cores were damaged by several drilling fluid systems. Scanning electron microscope (SEM) was used to observe the damage mechanism caused by the drilling fluids. Results showed that the ester based drilling fluid system caused the most serious damage followed by synthetic oil based system and KCI-polymer system. Fine solids and filtrate migration and emulsion blockage are believed to be the major mechanisms controlling the changes in flow properties for the sandstone samples.

Do native parasitic plants cause more damage to exotic invasive hosts than native non-invasive hosts? An implication for biocontrol.

PubMed

Li, Junmin; Jin, Zexin; Song, Wenjing

2012-01-01

Field studies have shown that native, parasitic plants grow vigorously on invasive plants and can cause more damage to invasive plants than native plants. However, no empirical test has been conducted and the mechanism is still unknown. We conducted a completely randomized greenhouse experiment using 3 congeneric pairs of exotic, invasive and native, non-invasive herbaceous plant species to quantify the damage caused by parasitic plants to hosts and its correlation with the hosts' growth rate and resource use efficiency. The biomass of the parasitic plants on exotic, invasive hosts was significantly higher than on congeneric native, non-invasive hosts. Parasites caused more damage to exotic, invasive hosts than to congeneric, native, non-invasive hosts. The damage caused by parasites to hosts was significantly positively correlated with the biomass of parasitic plants. The damage of parasites to hosts was significantly positively correlated with the relative growth rate and the resource use efficiency of its host plants. It may be the mechanism by which parasitic plants grow more vigorously on invasive hosts and cause more damage to exotic, invasive hosts than to native, non-invasive hosts. These results suggest a potential biological control effect of native, parasitic plants on invasive species by reducing the dominance of invasive species in the invaded community.

Ecosystems, ecological restoration, and economics: does habitat or resource equivalency analysis mean other economic valuation methods are not needed?

PubMed

Shaw, W Douglass; Wlodarz, Marta

2013-09-01

Coastal and other area resources such as tidal wetlands, seagrasses, coral reefs, wetlands, and other ecosystems are often harmed by environmental damage that might be inflicted by human actions, or could occur from natural hazards such as hurricanes. Society may wish to restore resources to offset the harm, or receive compensation if this is not possible, but faces difficult choices among potential compensation projects. The optimal amount of restoration efforts can be determined by non-market valuation methods, service-to-service, or resource-to-resource approaches such as habitat equivalency analysis (HEA). HEA scales injured resources and lost services on a one-to-one trade-off basis. Here, we present the main differences between the HEA approach and other non-market valuation approaches. Particular focus is on the role of the social discount rate, which appears in the HEA equation and underlies calculations of the present value of future damages. We argue that while HEA involves elements of economic analysis, the assumption of a one-to-one trade-off between lost and restored services sometimes does not hold, and then other non-market economic valuation approaches may help in restoration scaling or in damage determination.

Economic impacts of the ShakeOut scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rose, A.; Wei, D.; Wein, A.

2011-01-01

For the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario, we estimate $68 billion in direct and indirect business interruption (BI) and $11 billion in related costs in addition to the $113 billion in property damage in an eight-county Southern California region. The modeled conduits of shock to the economy are property damage and lifeline service outages that affect the economy’s ability to produce. Property damage from fire is 50% greater than property damage from shaking because fire is more devastating. BI from water service disruption and fire each represent around one-third of total BI losses because of the long duration of service outage or long restoration and reconstruction periods. Total BI losses are 4.3% of annual gross output in the affected region, an impact far larger than most conventional economic recessions. These losses are still much lower than they potentially could be due to the resilience of the economy.

Importance of secondary damage in downer cows.

PubMed

Poulton, P J; Vizard, A L; Anderson, G A; Pyman, M F

2016-05-01

To investigate the relative importance in downer cows of the primary cause of recumbency in comparison with secondary complications. Downer dairy cows were monitored during their recumbency under field conditions in South Gippsland, Victoria, Australia. The cause of the original recumbency of the 218 cows was determined and secondary damage, status on day 7 and final outcome were recorded. Some type of secondary damage was found in 183/218 (84%) cows, of which 173/218 (79%) had damage deemed to be clinically important. By day 7, 52 (24%) had recovered and 69 (32%) eventually recovered. Of the 149 (68%) cows that were euthanased or died, 23 (15%) were deemed to have been lost solely from the primary cause, 107 (72%) from secondary damage and 19 (13%) from a combination of both. There was no difference in recovery among the five broad groups of causes of primary recumbency. Secondary damage was very common and presented in a large variety of ways, with many cows having multiple types of secondary damage concurrently. For most cows the secondary damage was more important than the initial primary damage in determining their fate. © 2016 Australian Veterinary Association.

Atmospheric skin aging-Contributors and inhibitors.

PubMed

McDaniel, David; Farris, Patricia; Valacchi, Giuseppe

2018-04-01

Cutaneous aging is a complex biological process consisting of 2 elements: intrinsic aging, which is primarily determined by genetics, and extrinsic aging, which is largely caused by atmospheric factors, such as exposure to sunlight and air pollution, and lifestyle choices, such as diet and smoking. The role of the solar spectrum, comprised of ultraviolet light, specifically UVB (290-320 nm) and UVA (320-400) in causing skin damage, including skin cancers, has been well documented. In recent years, the contribution of visible light (400-700 nm) and infrared radiation (above 800 nm) in causing skin damage, similar to the photodamage caused by UV light, is also being elucidated. In addition, other atmospheric factors such as air pollution (smog, ozone, particulate matter, etc.) have been implicated in premature skin aging. The skin damage caused by environmental exposure is largely attributable to a complex cascade of reactions inside the skin initiated by the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), which causes oxidative damage to cellular components such as proteins, lipids, and nucleic acids. These damaged skin cells initiate inflammatory responses leading to the eventual damage manifested in chronically exposed skin. Novel therapeutic strategies to combat ROS species generation are being developed to prevent the skin damage caused by atmospheric factors. In addition to protecting skin from solar radiation using sunscreens, other approaches using topically applied ingredients, particularly antioxidants that penetrate the skin and protect the skin from within, have also been well documented. This review summarizes current knowledge of atmospheric aggressors, including UVA, UVB, visible light, infrared radiation (IR), and ozone on skin damage, and proposes new avenues for future research in the prevention and treatment of premature skin aging caused by such atmospheric factors. New therapeutic modalities currently being developed are also discussed. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Economic Value of an Advanced Climate Observing System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.

2013-12-01

Scientific missions increasingly need to show the monetary value of knowledge advances in budget-constrained environments. For example, suppose a climate science mission promises to yield decisive information on the rate of human caused global warming within a shortened time frame. How much should society be willing to pay for this knowledge today? The US interagency memo on the social cost of carbon (SCC) creates a standard yardstick for valuing damages from carbon emissions. We illustrate how value of information (VOI) calculations can be used to monetize the relative value of different climate observations. We follow the SCC, setting uncertainty in climate sensitivity to a truncated Roe and Baker (2007) distribution, setting discount rates of 2.5%, 3% and 5%, and using one of the Integrated Assessment Models sanctioned in SCC (DICE, Nordhaus 2008). We consider three mitigation scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), a moderate mitigation response DICE Optimal, and a strong response scenario (Stern). To illustrate results, suppose that we are on the BAU emissions scenario, and that we would switch to the Stern emissions path if we learn with 90% confidence that the decadal rate of temperature change reaches or exceeds 0.2 C/decade. Under the SCC assumptions, the year in which this happens, if it happens, depends on the uncertain climate sensitivity and on the emissions path. The year in which we become 90% certain that it happens depends, in addition, on our Earth observations, their accuracy, and their completeness. The basic concept is that more accurate observations can shorten the time for societal decisions. The economic value of the resulting averted damages depends on the discount rate, and the years in which the damages occur. A new climate observation would be economically justified if the net present value (NPV) of the difference in averted damages, relative to the existing systems, exceeds the NPV of the system costs. Our results (Cooke et al. 2013) compared the proposed CLARREO advance in satellite absolute calibration for climate change records to an existing system for detecting decadal temperature change using infrared spectra from weather satellites. New results extend this to observational detection of cloud feedback which is the largest uncertainty in determining climate sensitivity and therefore the uncertainty in economic impacts. New results also include the use of multiple societal decision triggers. While CLARREO is used as an example, the value should be considered as relevant to a complete high accuracy climate observing system, as societal decisions are unlikely to be based on one or a few observations. The VOI is found to depend on the required confidence level, the trigger value at which we would abandon the BAU emissions path, the path to which we switch, and the date at which the new system is launched. The VOI of advanced climate observations in this decision context is the surfeit of NPV of averted damages, relative to the existing system. Over all it is in the order of tens of trillions of US dollars in Net Present Value. The results conclude that the economic value of advanced climate observing systems is dramatically larger than their cost, and argues for the continual enhancement of the SCC assessment process.

Utilizing the algicidal activity of aminoclay as a practical treatment for toxic red tides

PubMed Central

Lee, Young-Chul; Jin, EonSeon; Jung, Seung Won; Kim, Yeon-Mi; Chang, Kwang Suk; Yang, Ji-Won; Kim, Si-Wouk; Kim, Young-Ok; Shin, Hyun-Jae

2013-01-01

In recent decades, harmful algal blooms (HABs) – commonly known as red tides – have increasingly impacted human health, caused significant economic losses to fisheries and damaged coastal environments and ecosystems. Here, we demonstrate a method to control and suppress HABs through selective algal lysis. The approach harnesses the algicidal effects of aminoclays, which are comprised of a high density of primary amine groups covalently bonded by metal cation backbones. Positively charged colloidals of aminoclays induce cell lysis in HABs within several minutes exposure but have negligible impact on non-harmful phytoplankton, zooplankton and farmed fish. This selective lysis is due to the ammonium characteristics of the aminoclay and the electrostatic attraction between the clay nanoparticles and the algal cells. In contrast, yellow loess clay, a recognized treatment for HABs, causes algal flocs with little cell lysis. Thus, the aminoclay loading can be effective for the mitigation of HABs. PMID:23416422

Utilizing the algicidal activity of aminoclay as a practical treatment for toxic red tides.

PubMed

Lee, Young-Chul; Jin, EonSeon; Jung, Seung Won; Kim, Yeon-Mi; Chang, Kwang Suk; Yang, Ji-Won; Kim, Si-Wouk; Kim, Young-Ok; Shin, Hyun-Jae

2013-01-01

In recent decades, harmful algal blooms (HABs) - commonly known as red tides - have increasingly impacted human health, caused significant economic losses to fisheries and damaged coastal environments and ecosystems. Here, we demonstrate a method to control and suppress HABs through selective algal lysis. The approach harnesses the algicidal effects of aminoclays, which are comprised of a high density of primary amine groups covalently bonded by metal cation backbones. Positively charged colloidals of aminoclays induce cell lysis in HABs within several minutes exposure but have negligible impact on non-harmful phytoplankton, zooplankton and farmed fish. This selective lysis is due to the ammonium characteristics of the aminoclay and the electrostatic attraction between the clay nanoparticles and the algal cells. In contrast, yellow loess clay, a recognized treatment for HABs, causes algal flocs with little cell lysis. Thus, the aminoclay loading can be effective for the mitigation of HABs.

Major coastal impact induced by a 1000-year storm event

PubMed Central

Fruergaard, Mikkel; Andersen, Thorbjørn J.; Johannessen, Peter N.; Nielsen, Lars H.; Pejrup, Morten

2013-01-01

Extreme storms and storm surges may induce major changes along sandy barrier coastlines, potentially causing substantial environmental and economic damage. We show that the most destructive storm (the 1634 AD storm) documented for the northern Wadden Sea within the last thousand years both caused permanent barrier breaching and initiated accumulation of up to several metres of marine sand. An aggradational storm shoal and a prograding shoreface sand unit having thicknesses of up to 8 m and 5 m respectively were deposited as a result of the storm and during the subsequent 30 to 40 years long healing phase, on the eroded shoreface. Our results demonstrate that millennial-scale storms can induce large-scale and long-term changes on barrier coastlines and shorefaces, and that coastal changes assumed to take place over centuries or even millennia may occur in association with and be triggered by a single extreme storm event.

An integrated genomic and transcriptomic survey of mucormycosis-causing fungi

PubMed Central

Chibucos, Marcus C.; Soliman, Sameh; Gebremariam, Teclegiorgis; Lee, Hongkyu; Daugherty, Sean; Orvis, Joshua; Shetty, Amol C.; Crabtree, Jonathan; Hazen, Tracy H.; Etienne, Kizee A.; Kumari, Priti; O'Connor, Timothy D.; Rasko, David A.; Filler, Scott G.; Fraser, Claire M.; Lockhart, Shawn R.; Skory, Christopher D.; Ibrahim, Ashraf S.; Bruno, Vincent M.

2016-01-01

Mucormycosis is a life-threatening infection caused by Mucorales fungi. Here we sequence 30 fungal genomes, and perform transcriptomics with three representative Rhizopus and Mucor strains and with human airway epithelial cells during fungal invasion, to reveal key host and fungal determinants contributing to pathogenesis. Analysis of the host transcriptional response to Mucorales reveals platelet-derived growth factor receptor B (PDGFRB) signaling as part of a core response to divergent pathogenic fungi; inhibition of PDGFRB reduces Mucorales-induced damage to host cells. The unique presence of CotH invasins in all invasive Mucorales, and the correlation between CotH gene copy number and clinical prevalence, are consistent with an important role for these proteins in mucormycosis pathogenesis. Our work provides insight into the evolution of this medically and economically important group of fungi, and identifies several molecular pathways that might be exploited as potential therapeutic targets. PMID:27447865

Non-stationary time series modeling on caterpillars pest of palm oil for early warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiyowati, Susi; Nugraha, Rida F.; Mukhaiyar, Utriweni

2015-12-01

The oil palm production has an important role for the plantation and economic sector in Indonesia. One of the important problems in the cultivation of oil palm plantation is pests which causes damage to the quality of fruits. The caterpillar pest which feed palm tree's leaves will cause decline in quality of palm oil production. Early warning system is needed to minimize losses due to this pest. Here, we applied non-stationary time series modeling, especially the family of autoregressive models to predict the number of pests based on its historical data. We realized that there is some uniqueness of these pests data, i.e. the spike value that occur almost periodically. Through some simulations and case study, we obtain that the selection of constant factor has a significance influence to the model so that it can shoot the spikes value precisely.

The application of the Contingent Valuation method towards the assessment of the impacts emerged from the March 2006 floods in the Evros River. An experts-based survey.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markantonis, V.; Bithas, K.

2009-04-01

In March 2006 Greece was struck by a severe flooding, which caused significant damages in the Prefecture of Evros, on the Eastern border of Greece. 250 million m² of farmland was flooded causing severe damages to agriculture, transport and water supply networks. Total direct damages are estimated at € 372 million. The negative effect on economic activity caused by the floods, considered the worst over the last 50 years, took place in an area that had already been severely affected by floods in 2005. Apart from the direct damages critical were also the indirect impacts on the environmental and the social level. The need for economic analysis concerning the design and implementation of efficient flood management policies is well emphasized in the natural hazards' policies. Within this framework, the present paper is analyzing the application of stated preferences valuation techniques for the assessment of the damages caused in the Prefecture of Evros by the severe floods of March 2006. The objective of this paper is to define the role of economic valuation techniques in assisting the design of efficient and sustainable policies for flood management. More specific, the Contingent Valuation (CV) method is applied in order to valuate the impacts of the March 2006 floods, including the environmental impacts as far as concerns the soil, the biodiversity and the aesthetic environment of the flooded areas. The paper begins with a discussion of the theoretical economic framework, and particularly, the contingent valuation method framework that can be used to evaluate flood impacts. Understanding public preferences for complex environmental policy changes, such as flood impacts, is a preeminent challenge for environmental economists and other social scientists. Information issues are central to the design and application of the survey-based contingent valuation (CV) method for valuing environmental goods. While content is under the control of the analyst, how this information is accessed and used is ultimately up to the respondent. In addition, the future trends of floods in the Evros River Basin are presented, linking the socio-economic framework with the physical conditions of climate change. The forecast of the future precipitation trends in the Evros River has been realized at the Bjerkness Climate Change Center, Norway (May - July 2006). The objective of this forecast is to identify the future extreme precipitation trends in the Evros River Basin applying the global change models and identifying the differences between the present climate and the IPCC scenarios for the future climate. The scenario used for the present climate was the ‘20C3M' and the scenarios used for the future climate was the ‘SRES A2' and the ‘SRES A1B as well. The climate change models used were the following: BCM, ECHAM5_MPI, GFDL and CNRM_CM3. The analysis was based on changes concerning extreme precipitation in periods of three and seven days, which can theoritically lead to flooding events. Eventually, an application of the contingent valuation method is presented using the case study of March 2006 floods in the Evros River. In this context, the valuation scenario, the structure of the questionnaire, the elaboration of the survey and the results of the application are thoroughly illustrated. The good, or policy, being valued is the flooding impacts, focusing more at environmental aspects (soil, biodiversity, aesthetic environment). The survey includes a sample of 53 local experts in floods from various sectors such as local authorities, local public services, agricultural associations, environmental NGO's and universities. The survey is based on peer to peer interviews, which theoretically provide the most coherent results. The valuation question explores the Willingness to Pay (WTP) to Avoid future impacts of flooding formatted as an annual household fee and alternatively as a percentage of the Prefecture's GDP. In both cases the respondents are also asked which percentage of their initially stated value should specifically given for the elimination of the impacts on the soil, the biodiversity and the aesthetic environment. Moreover, the payment vehicle is the payment card method with four pre-defined sets of values. The basic survey template includes three major sections. The first part contains attitudinal, and knowledge questions. The second part, or valuation section, contains the contingent valuation scenario, the actual valuation questions and the follow-up questions. The final section contains the demographic questions. Results indicate well informed local experts who are willing to pay respectable amounts in order to avoid flooding impacts and give a strong gravity on the environmental impacts of the floods. Also, respondents are criticizing the weaknesses of the current flood management status and provide alternative policies, which can potentially affect the policy-making.

Predicting Hotspots of Human-Elephant Conflict to Inform Mitigation Strategies in Xishuangbanna, Southwest China.

PubMed

Chen, Ying; Marino, Jorgelina; Chen, Yong; Tao, Qing; Sullivan, Casey D; Shi, Kun; Macdonald, David W

2016-01-01

Research on the spatial patterns of human-wildlife conflict is fundamental to understanding the mechanisms underlying it and to identifying opportunities for mitigation. In the state of Xishuangbanna, containing China's largest tropical forest, an imbalance between nature conservation and economic development has led to increasing conflicts between humans and Asian elephants (Elephas maximus), as both elephant numbers and conversion of habitable land to rubber plantations have increased over the last several decades. We analyzed government data on the compensation costs of elephant-caused damage in Xishuangbanna between 2008 and 2012 to understand the spatial and temporal patterns of conflict, in terms of their occurrence, frequency and distribution. More than 18,261 incidents were reported, including episodes involving damage to rubber trees (n = 10,999), damage to crops such as paddy, upland rice, corn, bananas and sugarcane (n = 11,020), property loss (n = 689) and attacks on humans (n = 19). The conflict data reconfirmed the presence of elephants in areas which have lacked records since the late 1990s. Zero Altered Negative Binomial models revealed that the risk of damage to crops and plantations increased with proximity to protected areas, increasing distance from roads, and lower settlement density. The patterns were constant across seasons and types of crop damaged. Damage to rubber trees was essentially incidental as elephants searched for crops to eat. A predictive map of risks revealed hotspots of conflict within and around protected areas, the last refuges for elephants in the region, and along habitat corridors connecting them. Additionally, we analyzed how mitigation efforts can best diminish the risk of conflict while minimizing financial costs and adverse biological impacts. Our analytical approach can be adopted, adjusted and expanded to other areas with historical records of human-wildlife conflict.

A place-based model for assessing the coherence of the flash floods and socio-economic vulnerability across the Contiguous United States (CONUS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajehei, S.; Moradkhani, H.

2017-12-01

Understanding socio-economic characteristics involving natural hazards potential, vulnerability, and resilience is necessary to address the damages to economy and loss of life from extreme natural hazards. The vulnerability to flash floods is dependent on both biophysical and socio-economic factors. Although the biophysical characteristics (e.g. climate, vegetation, and land use) are informative and useful for predicting spatial and temporal extent of flash floods, they have minimal bearing on predicting when and where flash floods are likely to influence people or damage valuable assets and resources. The socio-economic factors determine spatial and temporal scales of the regions affected by flash floods. In this study, we quantify the socio-economic vulnerability to flash floods across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). A socio-economic vulnerability index was developed, employing Bayesian principal components for each state in the CONUS. For this purpose, extensive sets of social and economic variables from US Census and the Bureau of Economic Analysis were used. We developed maps presenting the coincidence of socio-economic vulnerability and the flash floods records. This product can help inform flash flood prevention, mitigation and recovery planning, as well as reducing the flash flood hazards affecting vulnerable places and population.

Quantifying the economic risks of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaz, Delavane; Moore, Frances

2017-11-01

Understanding the value of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions matters for policy decisions and climate risk management, but quantification is challenging because of the complex interactions and uncertainties in the Earth and human systems, as well as normative ethical considerations. Current modelling approaches use damage functions to parameterize a simplified relationship between climate variables, such as temperature change, and economic losses. Here we review and synthesize the limitations of these damage functions and describe how incorporating impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research advances and empirical findings could substantially improve damage modelling and the robustness of social cost of carbon values produced. We discuss the opportunities and challenges associated with integrating these research advances into cost-benefit integrated assessment models, with guidance for future work.

Squirrel Damage to Pines

Treesearch

USDA Forest Service

1981-01-01

Flagging (dead branch tips) on jack pine and red pine may be caused by insects, diseases, or mechanical damage. In the Lake States, flagging is often the result of mechanical damage, sometimes girdling, caused when the cones are torn off by red squirrels.

LIDAR Investigation Of The 2004 Niigata Ken Chuetsu, Japan, Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kayen, R.; Pack, R. T.; Sugimoto, S.; Tanaka, H.

2005-12-01

The 23 October 2004 Niigata Ken Chuetsu, Japan, Mw 6.6 earthquake was the most significant earthquake to affect Japan since the 1995 Kobe earthquake. Forty people were killed, almost 3,000 injured, and numerous landslides destroyed entire upland villages. Landslides and permanent ground deformation caused extensive damage to roads, rail lines and other lifelines, resulting in major economic disruption. The cities and towns most significantly affected by the earthquake were Nagaoka, Ojiya, and the mountainous rural areas of Yamakoshi village and Kawaguchi town. Our EERI team traveled with a tripod mounted LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) unit, a scanning-laser that creates ultra high-resolution 3-D digital terrain models of the earthquake damaged surfaces the ground, structures, and life-lines. This new technology allows for rapid and remote sensing of damaged terrain. Ground-based LIDAR has an accuracy range of 0.5-2.5 cm, and can illuminate targets up to 400m away from the sensor. During a single tripod-mounted LIDAR scan of 10 minutes, several million survey points are collected and processed into an ultra-high resolution terrain model of the damaged ground or structure. There are several benefits in acquiring these LIDAR data in the initial reconnaissance effort after the earthquake. First, we record the detailed failure morphologies of damaged ground and structures in order to make measurements that are either impractical or impossible by conventional survey means. The digital terrain models allow us to enlarge, enhance and rotate data in order to visualize damage in orientations and scales not previously possible. This ability to visualize damage allows us to better understand failure modes. Finally, LIDAR allows us to archive 3-D terrain models so that the engineering community can evaluate analytical and numerical models of deformation potential against detailed field measurements. Here, we discuss the findings of this 2004 Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake (M6.6) reconnaissance presented with LIDAR examples for damage-visualization.

The impact of environmental pollution on public health expenditure: dynamic panel analysis based on Chinese provincial data.

PubMed

Hao, Yu; Liu, Shuang; Lu, Zhi-Nan; Huang, Junbing; Zhao, Mingyuan

2018-05-01

In recent years, along with rapid economic growth, China's environmental problems have become increasingly prominent. At the same time, the level of China's pollution has been growing rapidly, which has caused huge damages to the residents' health. In this regard, the public health expenditure ballooned as the environmental quality deteriorated in China. In this study, the effect of environmental pollution on residents' health expenditure is empirically investigated by employing the first-order difference generalized method of moments (GMM) method to control for potential endogeneity. Using a panel data of Chinese provinces for the period of 1998-2015, this study found that the environmental pollution (represented by SO 2 and soot emissions) would indeed lead to the increase in the medical expenses of Chinese residents. At the current stage of economic development, an increase in SO 2 and soot emissions per capita would push up the public health expenditure per capita significantly. The estimation results are quite robust for different types of regression specifications and different combinations of control variables. Some social and economic variables such as public services and education may also have remarkable influences on residential medical expenses through different channels.

Investigating the association between weather conditions, calendar events and socio-economic patterns with trends in fire incidence: an Australian case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corcoran, Jonathan; Higgs, Gary; Rohde, David; Chhetri, Prem

2011-06-01

Fires in urban areas can cause significant economic, physical and psychological damage. Despite this, there has been a comparative lack of research into the spatial and temporal analysis of fire incidence in urban contexts. In this paper, we redress this gap through an exploration of the association of fire incidence to weather, calendar events and socio-economic characteristics in South-East Queensland, Australia using innovative technique termed the quad plot. Analysing trends in five fire incident types, including malicious false alarms (hoax calls), residential buildings, secondary (outdoor), vehicle and suspicious fires, results suggest that risk associated with all is greatly increased during school holidays and during long weekends. For all fire types the lowest risk of incidence was found to occur between one and six a.m. It was also found that there was a higher fire incidence in socially disadvantaged neighbourhoods and there was some evidence to suggest that there may be a compounding impact of high temperatures in such areas. We suggest that these findings may be used to guide the operations of fire services through spatial and temporal targeting to better utilise finite resources, help mitigate risk and reduce casualties.

Financial Bubbles, Real Estate Bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sornette, Didier; Woodard, Ryan

The financial crisis of 2008, which started with an initially well-defined epicenter focused on mortgage backed securities (MBS), has been cascading into a global economic recession, whose increasing severity and uncertain duration has led and is continuing to lead to massive losses and damage for billions of people. Heavy central bank interventions and government spending programs have been launched worldwide and especially in the USA and Europe, with the hope to unfreeze credit and bolster consumption. Here, we present evidence and articulate a general framework that allows one to diagnose the fundamental cause of the unfolding financial and economic crisis: the accumulation of several bubbles and their interplay and mutual reinforcement have led to an illusion of a "perpetual money machine" allowing financial institutions to extract wealth from an unsustainable artificial process. Taking stock of this diagnostic, we conclude that many of the interventions to address the so-called liquidity crisis and to encourage more consumption are ill-advised and even dangerous, given that precautionary reserves were not accumulated in the "good times" but that huge liabilities were. The most "interesting" present times constitute unique opportunities but also great challenges, for which we offer a few recommendations.

Disentangling Environmental and Anthropogenic Impacts on the Distribution of Unintentionally Introduced Invasive Alien Insects in Mainland China

PubMed Central

Zhao, Cai-Yun; Xu, Jing; Liu, Xiao-Yan

2017-01-01

Abstract Globalization increases the opportunities for unintentionally introduced invasive alien species, especially for insects, and most of these species could damage ecosystems and cause economic loss in China. In this study, we analyzed drivers of the distribution of unintentionally introduced invasive alien insects. Based on the number of unintentionally introduced invasive alien insects and their presence/absence records in each province in mainland China, regression trees were built to elucidate the roles of environmental and anthropogenic factors on the number distribution and similarity of species composition of these insects. Classification and regression trees indicated climatic suitability (the mean temperature in January) and human economic activity (sum of total freight) are primary drivers for the number distribution pattern of unintentionally introduced invasive alien insects at provincial scale, while only environmental factors (the mean January temperature, the annual precipitation and the areas of provinces) significantly affect the similarity of them based on the multivariate regression trees. PMID:28973576

Assessment of ecosystem productivity damage due to land use.

PubMed

Kaenchan, Piyanon; Guinée, Jeroen; Gheewala, Shabbir H

2018-04-15

Land use can affect ecosystems on land and their services. Because land use has mainly local effects, damage to ecosystem productivity due to land use should be modelled spatially dependent. Unfortunately, even though land use of impacts are particular importance for countries whose economies are highly agriculture-based, ecosystem productivity damage due to land use has not yet been assessed in Thailand so far. This study presents the method for assessing the damage to ecosystem productivity due to land use (land occupation and land transformation) in Thailand. Ecosystem productivity damage is expressed through net primary production (NPP). To convert the damage into monetary units, this study performs an economic valuation of NPP using the production function approach. The results show that the value of marginal product of NPP is around 10-15 Thai baht (THB) (1 USD≈36 THB), per tonne dry weight biomass. The results are applied to the case of biodiesel production. The method presented in this paper could be a guideline for future land use impact assessment research. In addition, converting the NPP damage results into monetary units facilitates integration of impact assessment and economic analysis results for supporting decision support tools such as cost benefit analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automatic recognition of seismic intensity based on RS and GIS: a case study in Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake of China.

PubMed

Zhang, Qiuwen; Zhang, Yan; Yang, Xiaohong; Su, Bin

2014-01-01

In recent years, earthquakes have frequently occurred all over the world, which caused huge casualties and economic losses. It is very necessary and urgent to obtain the seismic intensity map timely so as to master the distribution of the disaster and provide supports for quick earthquake relief. Compared with traditional methods of drawing seismic intensity map, which require many investigations in the field of earthquake area or are too dependent on the empirical formulas, spatial information technologies such as Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) can provide fast and economical way to automatically recognize the seismic intensity. With the integrated application of RS and GIS, this paper proposes a RS/GIS-based approach for automatic recognition of seismic intensity, in which RS is used to retrieve and extract the information on damages caused by earthquake, and GIS is applied to manage and display the data of seismic intensity. The case study in Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake in China shows that the information on seismic intensity can be automatically extracted from remotely sensed images as quickly as possible after earthquake occurrence, and the Digital Intensity Model (DIM) can be used to visually query and display the distribution of seismic intensity.

Scientific, Engineering, and Financial Factors of the 1989 Human-Triggered Newcastle Earthquake in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, C. D.

2006-12-01

This presentation emphasizes the dualism of natural resources exploitation and economic growth versus geomechanical pollution and risks of human-triggered earthquakes. Large-scale geoengineering activities, e.g., mining, reservoir impoundment, oil/gas production, water exploitation or fluid injection, alter pre-existing lithostatic stress states in the earth's crust and are anticipated to trigger earthquakes. Such processes of in- situ stress alteration are termed geomechanical pollution. Moreover, since the 19th century more than 200 earthquakes have been documented worldwide with a seismic moment magnitude of 4.5

Japanese experiences of environmental management.

PubMed

Matsuo, T

2003-01-01

Japan experienced a very rapid industrialization and economic growth in the era of income doubling in 1960s and at the same time Japan experienced very severe damage from various types of environmental pollution. In this paper, historical development of population, GNP, energy consumption with classification of petroleum, coal and electric power, and CO2 emission are introduced as basic background data on Japanese development. The tragic experience of Minamata disease and Itai-itai disease caused by methyl mercury and cadmium, respectively, are introduced. In two tables, historical development of water pollution and air pollution are summarized. Regarding solid wastes management, the total mass balance in Japan and recent development in legislation framework for enhancement of recycling of wastes are introduced briefly.

The shale gas boom and the need for rational policy.

PubMed

Finkel, Madelon; Hays, Jake; Law, Adam

2013-07-01

High-volume, slick water hydraulic fracturing of shale relies on pumping millions of gallons of surface water laced with toxic chemicals and sand under high pressure to create fractures to release the flow of gas. The process, however, has the potential to cause serious and irreparable damage to the environment and the potential for harm to human and animal health. At issue is how society should form appropriate policy in the absence of well-designed epidemiological studies and health impact assessments. The issue is fraught with environmental, economic, and health implications, and federal and state governments must establish detailed safeguards and ensure regulatory oversight, both of which are presently lacking in states where hydraulic fracturing is allowed.

Type Localities of Heteroptera (Insecta: Hemiptera) from Turkey.

PubMed

Dursun, Ahmet; Fent, Meral

2017-02-06

The Heteroptera (Hemiptera) fauna of the Palaearctic Region is represented by 9365 species belonging to 1632 genera of which 1349 species belonging to 469 genera are also recorded from Turkey. Type localities of 237 species are in Turkey of which 108 species and 4 subspecies are endemic for the Heteroptera fauna of Turkey, indicating the importance of the country as a refugium, genetic hotspot and dispersal centre during pleistocene glaciation. Some heteroptera are important in agriculture as predators used in biological control or as ectoparasits and pests on plants. Most heteropteran species are phytophagous feeding on leaves, flowers, fruits, seeds and shoots and cause economic damage. The suborder Heteroptera comprises aquatic, semi-aquatic and terrestrial species.

75 FR 24737 - Extension of the Designation of Nicaragua for Temporary Protected Status and Automatic Extension...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-05

... global economic crisis. Economic development has also been hindered and disrupted by electoral fraud and... damaged water supplies, leaving whole communities lacking potable water. According to the United Nations...

Study on the water related disaster risks using the future socio-economic scenario in Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiguchi, M.; Hatono, M.; Ikeuchi, H.; Nakamura, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2014-12-01

In this study, flood risks in the present and the end of the 21st century in Asia are estimated using a future socio-economic scenario. Using the runoff data of 7 GCMs (RCP 8.5) of CMIP5, the river discharge, inundation area, and inundation depth are calculated for the assessment of flood risk. Finally, the flood risk is estimated using a function of damage. The flood frequency in the end of the 21st century in Asia tends to increase. Inundation area in Japan, Taiwan, and Kyrgyz is almost unchanged. At the same time, that in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Laos, and Myanmar reached about 1.4-1.6 times compared to present. Damage cost is largely influenced by economic growth, however, we show that it is important that we distinguish the influence of climate change from economic development and evaluate it when we think about an adaptation.

Method for detecting moment connection fracture using high-frequency transients in recorded accelerations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodgers, J.E.; Elebi, M.

2011-01-01

The 1994 Northridge earthquake caused brittle fractures in steel moment frame building connections, despite causing little visible building damage in most cases. Future strong earthquakes are likely to cause similar damage to the many un-retrofitted pre-Northridge buildings in the western US and elsewhere. Without obvious permanent building deformation, costly intrusive inspections are currently the only way to determine if major fracture damage that compromises building safety has occurred. Building instrumentation has the potential to provide engineers and owners with timely information on fracture occurrence. Structural dynamics theory predicts and scale model experiments have demonstrated that sudden, large changes in structure properties caused by moment connection fractures will cause transient dynamic response. A method is proposed for detecting the building-wide level of connection fracture damage, based on observing high-frequency, fracture-induced transient dynamic responses in strong motion accelerograms. High-frequency transients are short (<1 s), sudden-onset waveforms with frequency content above 25 Hz that are visually apparent in recorded accelerations. Strong motion data and damage information from intrusive inspections collected from 24 sparsely instrumented buildings following the 1994 Northridge earthquake are used to evaluate the proposed method. The method's overall success rate for this data set is 67%, but this rate varies significantly with damage level. The method performs reasonably well in detecting significant fracture damage and in identifying cases with no damage, but fails in cases with few fractures. Combining the method with other damage indicators and removing records with excessive noise improves the ability to detect the level of damage. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Do Native Parasitic Plants Cause More Damage to Exotic Invasive Hosts Than Native Non-Invasive Hosts? An Implication for Biocontrol

PubMed Central

Li, Junmin; Jin, Zexin; Song, Wenjing

2012-01-01

Field studies have shown that native, parasitic plants grow vigorously on invasive plants and can cause more damage to invasive plants than native plants. However, no empirical test has been conducted and the mechanism is still unknown. We conducted a completely randomized greenhouse experiment using 3 congeneric pairs of exotic, invasive and native, non-invasive herbaceous plant species to quantify the damage caused by parasitic plants to hosts and its correlation with the hosts' growth rate and resource use efficiency. The biomass of the parasitic plants on exotic, invasive hosts was significantly higher than on congeneric native, non-invasive hosts. Parasites caused more damage to exotic, invasive hosts than to congeneric, native, non-invasive hosts. The damage caused by parasites to hosts was significantly positively correlated with the biomass of parasitic plants. The damage of parasites to hosts was significantly positively correlated with the relative growth rate and the resource use efficiency of its host plants. It may be the mechanism by which parasitic plants grow more vigorously on invasive hosts and cause more damage to exotic, invasive hosts than to native, non-invasive hosts. These results suggest a potential biological control effect of native, parasitic plants on invasive species by reducing the dominance of invasive species in the invaded community. PMID:22493703

Thaw weakening and load restriction practices on low volume roads

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-06-01

Low volume roads subjected to seasonal freezing are highly susceptible to damage from traffic during midwinter and spring thaws. Such traffic-induced damage can be minimized by a variety of design methods; however, most are not economically feasible....

Wooden beverage cases cause little damage to bottle caps

Treesearch

R. Bruce Anderson; William C. Miller

1973-01-01

Wooden beverage cases cause little damage to aluminum resealable caps during distribution. A study at bottling plants and distribution warehouses showed that an average of 1 bottle out of 4,000 has cap damage. Most of the damage was attributed to handling at the warehouse and in transit. Some recommendations are given for improvement of wooden beverage cases to prevent...

Indoor air quality of a museum in a subtropical climate: the Oscar Niemeyer museum in Curitiba, Brazil.

PubMed

Godoi, Ricardo H M; Carneiro, Barbara H B; Paralovo, Sarah L; Campos, Vania P; Tavares, Tania M; Evangelista, Heitor; Van Grieken, Rene; Godoi, Ana F L

2013-05-01

The assessment of damage to indoor cultural heritage, in particular by pollutants, is nowadays a major and growing concern for curators and conservators. Nevertheless, although many museums have been widely investigated in Europe, the effects of particulate matter and gaseous pollutants in museums under tropical and subtropical climates and with different economic realities are still unclear. An important portion of the world's cultural heritage is currently in tropical countries where both human and financial resources for preserving museum collections are limited. Hence, our aim is to assess the damage that can be caused to the artwork by pollution in hot and humid environments, where air quality and microclimatic condition differences can cause deterioration. As a case study, particulate matter as well as gases were collected at the Oscar Niemeyer Museum (MON) in Curitiba, Brazil, where large modern and contemporary works of art are displayed. NO2, SO2, O3, Acetic Acid, Formic Acids and BTEX, in the ambient air, were sampled by means of passive diffusive sampling and their concentrations were determined by IC or GC-MS. The particulate matter was collected in bulk form and analyzed with the use of energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence and aethalometer. The chemical compositions of individual particles were quantitatively elucidated, including low-Z components like C, N and O, as well as higher-Z elements, using automated electron probe microanalysis. The gaseous and particulate matter levels were then compared with the concentrations obtained for the same pollutants in other museums, located in places with different climates, and with some reference values provided by international cultural heritage conservation centers. Results are interpreted separately and as a whole with the specific aim of identifying compounds that could contribute to the chemical reactions taking place on the surfaces of artifacts and which could potentially cause irreversible damage to the artworks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Amphetamines promote mitochondrial dysfunction and DNA damage in pulmonary hypertension

PubMed Central

Chen, Pin-I; Cao, Aiqin; Miyagawa, Kazuya; Tojais, Nancy F.; Hennigs, Jan K.; Li, Caiyun G.; Sweeney, Nathaly M.; Inglis, Audrey S.; Wang, Lingli; Li, Dan; Ye, Matthew; Feldman, Brian J.

2017-01-01

Amphetamine (AMPH) or methamphetamine (METH) abuse can cause oxidative damage and is a risk factor for diseases including pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Pulmonary artery endothelial cells (PAECs) from AMPH-associated-PAH patients show DNA damage as judged by γH2AX foci and DNA comet tails. We therefore hypothesized that AMPH induces DNA damage and vascular pathology by interfering with normal adaptation to an environmental perturbation causing oxidative stress. Consistent with this, we found that AMPH alone does not cause DNA damage in normoxic PAECs, but greatly amplifies DNA damage in hypoxic PAECs. The mechanism involves AMPH activation of protein phosphatase 2A, which potentiates inhibition of Akt. This increases sirtuin 1, causing deacetylation and degradation of HIF1α, thereby impairing its transcriptional activity, resulting in a reduction in pyruvate dehydrogenase kinase 1 and impaired cytochrome c oxidase 4 isoform switch. Mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation is inappropriately enhanced and, as a result of impaired electron transport and mitochondrial ROS increase, caspase-3 is activated and DNA damage is induced. In mice given binge doses of METH followed by hypoxia, HIF1α is suppressed and pulmonary artery DNA damage foci are associated with worse pulmonary vascular remodeling. Thus, chronic AMPH/METH can induce DNA damage associated with vascular disease by subverting the adaptive responses to oxidative stress. PMID:28138562

Economics of social trade-off: Balancing wastewater treatment cost and ecosystem damage.

PubMed

Jiang, Yu; Dinar, Ariel; Hellegers, Petra

2018-04-01

We have developed a social optimization model that integrates the financial and ecological costs associated with wastewater treatment and ecosystem damage. The social optimal abatement level of water pollution is determined by finding the trade-off between the cost of pollution control and its resulting ecosystem damage. The model is applied to data from the Lake Taihu region in China to demonstrate this trade-off. A wastewater treatment cost function is estimated with a sizable sample from China, and an ecological damage cost function is estimated following an ecosystem service valuation framework. Results show that the wastewater treatment cost function has economies of scale in facility capacity, and diseconomies in pollutant removal efficiency. Results also show that a low value of the ecosystem service will lead to serious ecological damage. One important policy implication is that the assimilative capacity of the lake should be enhanced by forbidding over extraction of water from the lake. It is also suggested that more work should be done to improve the accuracy of the economic valuation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of traffic accidents in Romania, 2009.

PubMed

Călinoiu, Geovana; Minca, Dana Galieta; Furtunescu, Florentina Ligia

2012-01-01

This paper aimed to underline the main consequences of traffic accidents in Romania 2009 and their associated causes or circumstances. We identified some problematic geographic areas, some critical months or moments of the day and also the most frequent causes; all these should become targets for the future planning. The current analysis provides some priority criteria for public health interventions. So, the future national road safety strategy should be in line with the EU objectives, but also with the national priorities. Romania is far away from the average EU target for 2010 of halving the death by traffic accidents registered in 2001. To describe the circumstances and the consequences related to traffic accidents registered in Romania, for the year 2009. An ecological study was conducted. The traffic accidents circumstances were analyzed in terms of magnitude, geographic space, time and cause. The consequences were analyzed as affected people and damaged cars. A total of 28,627 traffic accidents were registered in Romania during the year 2009. 2,796 people were killed and 27,968 were hospitalized and 42,443 cars were damaged. 3 of 4 accidents were caused by violations on behalf of the car drivers. Most common violations in car drivers were excess of speed and priority violations (52.4%). Among the pedestrians, 7 of 10 accidents were caused by illegal crossing. A higher number of accidents occurred during the summer months and during the evening hours (from 5.00 pm till 8.00 pm). The traffic accidents represent a real public health problem in Romania and a serious burden for the health system. The gap between Romania and the other EU member states needs to be diminished in the next decade. In this purpose, the future national road safety strategy should be in line with the EU objectives, but also with the national priorities. Research is needed to understand the causes and the socio-economical impact of traffic accidents and to define appropriate national objectives.

Geohazard assessment through the analysis of historical alluvial events in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esposito, Eliana; Violante, Crescenzo

2015-04-01

The risk associated with extreme water events such as flash floods, results from a combination of overflows and landslides hazards. A multi-hazard approach have been utilized to analyze the 1773 flood that occurred in conjunction with heavy rainfall, causing major damage in terms of lost lives and economic cost over an area of 200 km2, including both the coastal strip between Salerno and Maiori and the Apennine hinterland, Campania region - Southern Italy. This area has been affected by a total of 40 flood events over the last five centuries, 26 of them occurred between 1900 and 2000. Streamflow events have produced severe impacts on Cava de' Tirreni (SA) and its territory and in particular four catastrophic floods in 1581, 1773, 1899 and 1954, caused a pervasive pattern of destruction. In the study area, rainstorm events typically occur in small and medium-sized fluvial system, characterized by small catchment areas and high-elevation drainage basins, causing the detachment of large amount of volcaniclastic and siliciclastic covers from the carbonate bedrock. The mobilization of these deposits (slope debris) mixed with rising floodwaters along the water paths can produce fast-moving streamflows of large proportion with significant hazardous implications (Violante et al., 2009). In this context the study of 1773 historical flood allows the detection and the definition of those areas where catastrophic events repeatedly took place over the time. Moreover, it improves the understanding of the phenomena themselves, including some key elements in the management of risk mitigation, such as the restoration of the damage suffered by the buildings and/or the environmental effects caused by the floods.

Challenges in devising economic spray thresholds for a major pest of Australian canola, the redlegged earth mite (Halotydeus destructor).

PubMed

Arthur, Aston L; Hoffmann, Ary A; Umina, Paul A

2015-10-01

A key component for spray decision-making in IPM programmes is the establishment of economic injury levels (EILs) and economic thresholds (ETs). We aimed to establish an EIL for the redlegged earth mite (Halotydeus destructor Tucker) on canola. Complex interactions between mite numbers, feeding damage and plant recovery were found, highlighting the challenges in linking H. destructor numbers to yield. A guide of 10 mites plant(-1) was established at the first-true-leaf stage; however, simple relationships were not evident at other crop development stages, making it difficult to establish reliable EILs based on mite number. Yield was, however, strongly associated with plant damage and plant densities, reflecting the impact of mite feeding damage and indicating a plant-based alternative for establishing thresholds for H. destructor. Drawing on data from multiple field trials, we show that plant densities below 30-40 plants m(-2) could be used as a proxy for mite damage when reliable estimates of mite densities are not possible. This plant-based threshold provides a practical tool that avoids the difficulties of accurately estimating mite densities. The approach may be applicable to other situations where production conditions are unpredictable and interactions between pests and plant hosts are complex. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

Geomechanical modeling of reservoir compaction, surface subsidence, and casing damage at the Belridge diatomite field

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

FREDRICH,JOANNE T.; DEITRICK,G.L.; ARGUELLO JR.,JOSE G.

2000-05-01

Geologic, and historical well failure, production, and injection data were analyzed to guide development of three-dimensional geomechanical models of the Belridge diatomite field, California. The central premise of the numerical simulations is that spatial gradients in pore pressure induced by production and injection in a low permeability reservoir may perturb the local stresses and cause subsurface deformation sufficient to result in well failure. Time-dependent reservoir pressure fields that were calculated from three-dimensional black oil reservoir simulations were coupled uni-directionally to three-dimensional non-linear finite element geomechanical simulations. The reservoir models included nearly 100,000 gridblocks (100--200 wells), and covered nearly 20 yearsmore » of production and injection. The geomechanical models were meshed from structure maps and contained more than 300,000 nodal points. Shear strain localization along weak bedding planes that causes casing dog-legs in the field was accommodated in the model by contact surfaces located immediately above the reservoir and at two locations in the overburden. The geomechanical simulations are validated by comparison of the predicted surface subsidence with field measurements, and by comparison of predicted deformation with observed casing damage. Additionally, simulations performed for two independently developed areas at South Belridge, Sections 33 and 29, corroborate their different well failure histories. The simulations suggest the three types of casing damage observed, and show that although water injection has mitigated surface subsidence, it can, under some circumstances, increase the lateral gradients in effective stress, that in turn can accelerate subsurface horizontal motions. Geomechanical simulation is an important reservoir management tool that can be used to identify optimal operating policies to mitigate casing damage for existing field developments, and applied to incorporate the effect of well failure potential in economic analyses of alternative infilling and development options.« less

Recent Extreme Marine Events at Southern Coast of Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozyurt Tarakcioglu, Gulizar; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Kirezci, Cagil; Baykal, Cuneyt; Gokhan Guler, Hasan; Erol, Onur; Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey

2015-04-01

The utilization at the coastal areas of Black Sea basin has increased in the recent years with the projects such as large commercial ports, international transportation hubs, gas and petrol pipelines, touristic and recreational infrastructures both along surrounding shoreline. Although Black Sea is a closed basin, extreme storms and storm surges have also been observed with an increasing frequency in the recent years. Among those events, February 1999, March 2013 and September 2014 storms impacted Southern coast of Black sea have clearly shown that the increasing economic value at the coastal areas caused the increasing cost of damages and loss of property by natural hazards. The storm occurred on February 19-20, 1999 is one of the most destructive storm in the last decades. The 1999 event (1999 Southern Black sea storm) caused destruction at all harbors and coastal protection structures along the Black Sea coast of Turkey. The complete damage of the breakwater of Giresun Harbor and damage on the harbor structures and cargo handling equipment were the major impacts of the 1999 Southern Black sea storm. Similar coastal impact have also been observed during the September 24, 2014 storm at 500m East of Giresun harbor. Although there are considerable number of destructive storms observed at southern coast of Black sea recently, data on these events are limited and vastly scattered. In this study the list of recent extreme marine events at South coast of the Black sea compiled and related data such as wind speed, wave height, period, and type of damages are cataloged. Particular attention is focused on the 1999 and 2014 storm events. The meteorological and morphological characteristics which may be considered as the reasons of the generation and coastal amplification of these storms are discussed. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This study is partly supported by Turkish Russian Joint Research Grant Program by TUBITAK (Turkey) and RFBR (Russia), and TUBITAK 213M534 Research Project.

Economics on trial: the use and abuse of economic methods in third party tobacco litigation.

PubMed

Max, Wendy; Tsoukalas, Theo

2006-12-01

To analyse how the tobacco industry responded to economic models and methods used in third party payer tobacco litigation that has occurred since 1994. Identified 12 third party payer cases and reviewed the transcripts using WinMax qualitative software. Focused on defendant's opening and closing statements, followed by trial testimony, depositions, and plaintiff's transcripts. Tobacco industry defendants tried to create doubt and confusion about whether or not smoking caused disease and by extension led to health care costs; argued that the economic models used were not legitimate and were not appropriate for estimating the costs incurred by plaintiffs; and criticised the data sources used because they did not consist of the individuals whose health care costs were being sought. Faced with a new and unprecedented wave of anti-tobacco litigation from third party payers, the tobacco industry tried to adapt strategies that had been used successfully in the past-creation of unfounded doubt and confusion, and manipulation of the discovery process to force plaintiffs to withdraw or concede defeat. The strategies failed because credible economic models of the health care costs of smoking had been developed that were able to quantify the damages to a large group of health care recipients, because plaintiff's attorneys were able to commit significant resources and willing to undertake substantial financial risk to defend their new legal approaches, and because previous arguments related to individual responsibility were deemed irrelevant in third party litigation.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems for Remote Estimation of Flooded Areas Based on Complex Image Processing.

PubMed

Popescu, Dan; Ichim, Loretta; Stoican, Florin

2017-02-23

Floods are natural disasters which cause the most economic damage at the global level. Therefore, flood monitoring and damage estimation are very important for the population, authorities and insurance companies. The paper proposes an original solution, based on a hybrid network and complex image processing, to this problem. As first novelty, a multilevel system, with two components, terrestrial and aerial, was proposed and designed by the authors as support for image acquisition from a delimited region. The terrestrial component contains a Ground Control Station, as a coordinator at distance, which communicates via the internet with more Ground Data Terminals, as a fixed nodes network for data acquisition and communication. The aerial component contains mobile nodes-fixed wing type UAVs. In order to evaluate flood damage, two tasks must be accomplished by the network: area coverage and image processing. The second novelty of the paper consists of texture analysis in a deep neural network, taking into account new criteria for feature selection and patch classification. Color and spatial information extracted from chromatic co-occurrence matrix and mass fractal dimension were used as well. Finally, the experimental results in a real mission demonstrate the validity of the proposed methodologies and the performances of the algorithms.

Preliminary Results on Evaluation of Chickpea, Cicer arietinum, Genotypes for Resistance to the Pulse Beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus

PubMed Central

Erle, F.; Ceylan, F.; Erdemir, T.; Toker, C.

2009-01-01

The chickpea, Cicer arietinum L. (Fabales: Fabaceae), seeds are vulnerable, both in the field and in storage, to attack by seed-beetles. Beetles of the genus Callosobruchus are major storage pests of chickpea crops and cause considerable economic losses. In the present study, a total of 11 chickpea genotypes including five ‘kabuli’ (Mexican white, Diyar, CA 2969, ILC 8617 and ACC 245) and six ‘desi’ chickpeas (ICC 1069, ICC 12422, ICC 14336, ICC 4957, ICC 4969 and ICC 7509) were evaluated for resistance to the pulse beetle Callosobruchus maculatus F. (Coleoptera: Bruchidae). Resistance was evaluated by measuring percent damage to seeds. Damage to seeds by C. maculatus was manifested by the round exit holes with the ‘flap’ of seed coat made by emerging adults. Of the 11 genotypes tested, only one (ICC 4969) exhibited a complete resistance to C. maculatus in both free-choice and no-choice tests; no seed damage was found over the test period. In general, the ‘desi’ chickpeas were more resistant to C. maculatus than the ‘kabuli’ chickpeas. Among the tested chickpea genotypes, only ICC 4969 can be used as a source of C. maculatus resistance in breeding programmes that could then be grown in organic cultivation free from pesticides. PMID:20050777

Preliminary results on evaluation of chickpea, Cicer arietinum, genotypes for resistance to the pulse beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus.

PubMed

Erle, F; Ceylan, F; Erdemir, T; Toker, C

2009-01-01

Abstract The chickpea, Cicer arietinum L. (Fabales: Fabaceae), seeds are vulnerable, both in the field and in storage, to attack by seed-beetles. Beetles of the genus Callosobruchus are major storage pests of chickpea crops and cause considerable economic losses. In the present study, a total of 11 chickpea genotypes including five 'kabuli' (Mexican white, Diyar, CA 2969, ILC 8617 and ACC 245) and six 'desi' chickpeas (ICC 1069, ICC 12422, ICC 14336, ICC 4957, ICC 4969 and ICC 7509) were evaluated for resistance to the pulse beetle Callosobruchus maculatus F. (Coleoptera: Bruchidae). Resistance was evaluated by measuring percent damage to seeds. Damage to seeds by C. maculatus was manifested by the round exit holes with the 'flap' of seed coat made by emerging adults. Of the 11 genotypes tested, only one (ICC 4969) exhibited a complete resistance to C. maculatus in both free-choice and no-choice tests; no seed damage was found over the test period. In general, the 'desi' chickpeas were more resistant to C. maculatus than the 'kabuli' chickpeas. Among the tested chickpea genotypes, only ICC 4969 can be used as a source of C. maculatus resistance in breeding programmes that could then be grown in organic cultivation free from pesticides.

High effectiveness of tailored flower strips in reducing pests and crop plant damage

PubMed Central

Tschumi, Matthias; Albrecht, Matthias; Entling, Martin H.; Jacot, Katja

2015-01-01

Providing key resources to animals may enhance both their biodiversity and the ecosystem services they provide. We examined the performance of annual flower strips targeted at the promotion of natural pest control in winter wheat. Flower strips were experimentally sown along 10 winter wheat fields across a gradient of landscape complexity (i.e. proportion non-crop area within 750 m around focal fields) and compared with 15 fields with wheat control strips. We found strong reductions in cereal leaf beetle (CLB) density (larvae: 40%; adults of the second generation: 53%) and plant damage caused by CLB (61%) in fields with flower strips compared with control fields. Natural enemies of CLB were strongly increased in flower strips and in part also in adjacent wheat fields. Flower strip effects on natural enemies, pests and crop damage were largely independent of landscape complexity (8–75% non-crop area). Our study demonstrates a high effectiveness of annual flower strips in promoting pest control, reducing CLB pest levels below the economic threshold. Hence, the studied flower strip offers a viable alternative to insecticides. This highlights the high potential of tailored agri-environment schemes to contribute to ecological intensification and may encourage more farmers to adopt such schemes. PMID:26311668

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems for Remote Estimation of Flooded Areas Based on Complex Image Processing

PubMed Central

Popescu, Dan; Ichim, Loretta; Stoican, Florin

2017-01-01

Floods are natural disasters which cause the most economic damage at the global level. Therefore, flood monitoring and damage estimation are very important for the population, authorities and insurance companies. The paper proposes an original solution, based on a hybrid network and complex image processing, to this problem. As first novelty, a multilevel system, with two components, terrestrial and aerial, was proposed and designed by the authors as support for image acquisition from a delimited region. The terrestrial component contains a Ground Control Station, as a coordinator at distance, which communicates via the internet with more Ground Data Terminals, as a fixed nodes network for data acquisition and communication. The aerial component contains mobile nodes—fixed wing type UAVs. In order to evaluate flood damage, two tasks must be accomplished by the network: area coverage and image processing. The second novelty of the paper consists of texture analysis in a deep neural network, taking into account new criteria for feature selection and patch classification. Color and spatial information extracted from chromatic co-occurrence matrix and mass fractal dimension were used as well. Finally, the experimental results in a real mission demonstrate the validity of the proposed methodologies and the performances of the algorithms. PMID:28241479

Tsunami survey expedition: preliminary investigation of Maldivian coral reefs two weeks after the event.

PubMed

Goffredo, Stefano; Piccinetti, Corrado; Zaccanti, Francesco

2007-08-01

On December 26th 2004, a earthquake west of Sumatra generated a devastating tsunami. Hundreds of thousands of people fell victim. Economic losses were greatest in those countries dependant on tourism. The impact in the Maldives on persons and things was modest. Immediately following the event and notwithstanding the lack of scientific data, the mass media gave catastrophic reports on the state of coral reefs in the area. This paper reports on the first survey on coral reefs in the Maldives after the Tsunami. Ocean walls, passes, inner reefs, and shoals in the North and South Malé atolls, were surveyed two weeks after the event. Significant damage was recorded in the passes in the South Malé atoll. Our observations showed that the damage was more or less extensive depending on latitude and topography. Sri Lanka may have broken the wave's rush, reducing the extent of the impact on northern atolls. The water's acceleration inside the passes was so intense as to cause reef collapses. The observed damage represents a minimum fraction of the entire coral reef system. Tourist perception of the area seems unchanged. These data may be used to disseminate correct information about the state of Maldives coral reefs, which would be useful in relaunching local economy.

Methimazole-induced hypothyroidism causes cellular damage in the spleen, heart, liver, lung and kidney.

PubMed

Cano-Europa, Edgar; Blas-Valdivia, Vanessa; Franco-Colin, Margarita; Gallardo-Casas, Carlos Angel; Ortiz-Butrón, Rocio

2011-01-01

It is known that a hypothyroidism-induced hypometabolic state protects against oxidative damage caused by toxins. However, some workers demonstrated that antithyroid drug-induced hypothyroidism can cause cellular damage. Our objective was to determine if methimazole (an antithyroid drug) or hypothyroidism causes cellular damage in the liver, kidney, lung, spleen and heart. Twenty-five male Wistar rats were divided into 5 groups: euthyroid, false thyroidectomy, thyroidectomy-induced hypothyroidism, methimazole-induced hypothyroidism (60 mg/kg), and treatment with methimazole (60 mg/kg) and a T₄ injection (20 μg/kg/d sc). At the end of the treatments (4 weeks for the pharmacological groups and 8 weeks for the surgical groups), the animals were anesthetized with sodium pentobarbital and they were transcardially perfused with 10% formaldehyde. The spleen, heart, liver, lung and kidney were removed and were processed for embedding in paraffin wax. Coronal sections were stained with hematoxylin-eosin. At the end of treatment, animals with both the methimazole- and thyroidectomy-induced hypothyroidism had a significant reduction of serum concentration of thyroid hormones. Only methimazole-induced hypothyroidism causes cellular damage in the kidney, lung, liver, heart, kidney and spleen. In addition, animals treated with methimazole and T₄ showed cellular damage in the lung, spleen and renal medulla with lesser damage in the liver, renal cortex and heart. The thyroidectomy only altered the lung structure. The alterations were prevented by T₄ completely in the heart and partially in the kidney cortex. These results indicate that tissue damage found in hypothyroidism is caused by methimazole. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Landslides in Equatorial Africa: Identifying culturally, technically and economically feasible resilience strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kervyn, Matthieu; de Hontheim, Astrid; Dewitte, Olivier; Jacobs, Liesbet; Maes, Jan; Mertens, Kewan; Trefois, Philippe; Vranken, Liesbet; Poesen, Jean

2014-05-01

Landslides (LS) cause significant impacts in many equatorial regions. Their impact depends on their size and speed, the elements at risk and the vulnerability of these elements. This problem is particularly acute in Equatorial Africa characterized by mountainous topography, intense rains, deep weathering profiles, high population density and high vulnerability to geohazards. Every year LS cause fatalities and result in structural and functional damage to infrastructure and properties. Losses from LS are expected to increase in the future in response to the demographic pressure causing more development in landslide-prone areas (LSPA), deforestation and associated changes in land use and land cover, and the changing climate causing higher or more intense rainfalls. Many studies investigated how natural factors and human activities control the occurrence or re-activation of LS. These studies typically delivered susceptibility maps but these are insufficient to lead to efficient risk management. Building resilience requires to have a true hazard estimate, accounting not only for the spatial distribution of future LS but also for their temporal occurrence and the hazard intensity, to quantitatively analyse the socio-economic consequences of LS and to identify effective resilience strategies that are cost-effective, technically efficient and that are culturally acceptable and adapted to the livelihoods of the vulnerable population. Such an analysis is crucial as it enables to provide practical recommendations for households and policy makers to mitigate LS-related damages. This project focuses on 4 representative study areas known for having suffered severely from rainfall-triggered LS in Uganda (Mount Elgon, Mount Rwenzori) and SW and NW Cameroon (Mount Cameroon, Bamenda). In two of these regions, some preliminary studies on LS characteristics and susceptibility mapping have been carried out, while hazard maps, a socio-economic impact analysis and resilience strategies are completely lacking. This project follows a bottom-up approach where the specific research questions, scientific data and research outputs are designed in collaboration with, and according to the needs of, the local communities and stakeholders via stakeholder meetings and participatory data collection approaches. Information on LS is far more limited in Equatorial Africa compared to other continents. There are very few data at the continental and regional scale and it is difficult to have a clear picture of the total area affected. One of the challenges and objectives of this project is therefore to develop a methodology for resilience analysis adapted to this data-poor environment. The specific objectives of the present project are: 1. to produce LS susceptibility maps and identify return periods of LS-triggering rainfall events to estimate hazards for 4 representative study areas; 2. to analyse the types of elements at risk (immaterial and material) and their exposure, and to develop a methodology to economically value the consequences, 3. to assess current and potential resilience strategies at household and at policy levels; 4. to analyse the cultural premises underlying perceptions of environmental threats, to describe land rights and land management, and to identify culturally acceptable resilience strategies; 5. to produce risk maps and provide recommendations for the most effective resilience strategies.

Urban Flood Risk Insurance Models as a Strategy for Proactive Water Management Policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graciosa, M. C.; Mendiondo, E. M.

2006-12-01

To improve the water management through hydrological sciences, novel integration strategies could be underpinned to bridge up both engineering and economics. This is especially significant in developing nations where hydrologic extremes are expressive while the financial resources to mitigate that variability are scarce. One example of this problem is related to floods and their global and regional consequences. Floods mainly cause disasters in terms of human and material losses. In 2002, more than 30% of extreme climatic events occurred worldwide were floods, representing 42% of fatalities and 66% of material losses, mostly related to reactive policies. Throughout the last century, hydrological variability and rapidly growing of urban areas have developed new environmental problems in Brazilian cities, such as inundation occurrences on non-planned river basins. One of the causes of flood impacts is that public funds (national, state or municipal) have barely introduced wise proactive polices to follow up rapidly growing urban areas. Inexistent flood-risk-transfer mechanisms have caused the so-called `flood poverty cycle' due to reactive polices that have been increasing flood losses and, sometimes, became flood disasters. Flood risk management (FRM) is part of pro-active policies to mitigate inundation losses, in order to sustain environmental, social and economic aspects. Concepts and principles of FRM are part of a process that encompasses three phases: (1) preparedness stage, that consists in structural and non-structural actions to prevent and protect potential risk areas, such as early warning systems and scenarios development; (2) control stage, that refers to help actions and protection facilities during the event, and (3) restoration stage, that is related to rebuild affected areas, restore the river dynamics and transfer the socio-economic risks through flood insurances. Flood risk insurances agree to the goals of losses mitigation programs. Their use is more common in basins affected by alluvial floods. However, most of losses occur in urban areas, as a consequence of flash floods. Quantification of losses is an important basis of flood mitigation programs. It is also a complex task, which involves setting values on not easily quantifiable goods and determining risk and damage curves. This work proposes a flood insurance risk model coupled with a hydrological model as an incentive-based mechanism for achieving economically efficient flood management to be applied in Brazilian urban basins. It consists of integrating an insurance model and hydrological modeling of peak discharge warnings. It sets up curves, such as: water level versus discharge, water level versus inundation areas, and inundation area versus damage. It considers the prediction of future scenarios in order to evaluate the behavior of the insurance fund under climate variability. By using different probability distribution is compared the solvency and efficiency of the flood insurance fund for each premium-covered situation. The methodology is outlined to provide resources for the FRM restoration phase. Results are depicted from an experimental river basin sited on a rapid growing urban area, with some lessons learned valid to approach in other urban basins. This example is envisaged to foster resilience in the integration of hydrological science with policy and economic approaches. KEY WORDS: Flood risks management; flood insurance; hydrological modeling.

Hazard rating for gypsy moth on a Macintosh computer: a component of the GypsES system

Treesearch

Mark J. Twery; Gregory A. Elmes

1991-01-01

As gypsy moth expands into a new region, the threat of damage from its infestation is increasing greatly. The potential economic damage from the pest is extensive, considerably compounding the already substantial aesthetic damage and urban nuisance problems. One way to help forest managers deal with this threat is by providing them with a computer program which can...

Damage from wind and other causes in mixed white fir-red fir stands adjacent to clearcuttings

Treesearch

Donald T. Gordon

1973-01-01

Damage to timber surrounding clearcuttings and in one light selection cutting in mixed white fir-red fir stands was monitored for 6 years in northeastern California. In some years, bark beetles apparently killed more trees than did wind damage, but in two of the study years, severe wind storms caused much damage. One storm produced mainly break-age, apparently...

Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

PubMed

Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

2017-01-01

This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

Estimation of human damage and economic loss of buildings for the worst-credible scenario of tsunami inundation in the city of Augusta, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagnoni, Gianluca; Tinti, Stefano

2017-04-01

The city of Augusta is located in the southern part of the eastern coast of Sicily. Italian tsunami catalogue and paleo-tsunami surveys indicate that at least 7 events of tsunami affected the bay of Augusta in the last 4,000 years, two of which are associated with earthquakes (1169 and 1693) that destroyed the city. For these reasons Augusta has been chosen in the project ASTARTE as a test site for the study of issues related to tsunami hazard and risk. In last two years we studied hazard through the approach of the worst-case credible scenario and carried out vulnerability and damage analysis for buildings. In this work, we integrate that research, and estimate the damage to people and the economic loss of buildings due to structural damage. As regards inundation, we assume both uniform inundation levels (bath-tub hypothesis) and inundation data resulting from the worst-case scenario elaborated for the area by Armigliato et al. (2015). Human damage is calculated in three steps using the method introduced by Pagnoni et al. (2016) following the work by Terrier et al. (2012) and by Koshimura et al. (2009). First, we use census data to estimate the number of people present in each residential building affected by inundation; second, based on water column depth and building type, we evaluate the level of damage to people; third, we provide an estimate of fatalities. The economic loss is computed for two types of buildings (residential and trade-industrial) by using data on inundation and data from the real estate market. This study was funded by the EU Project ASTARTE - "Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe", Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3)

Estimating Losses from Volcanic Ash in case of a Mt. Baekdu Eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Soonyoung; Yoon, Seong-Min; Kim, Sung-Wook; Choi, Eun-Kyeong

2014-05-01

We will present the preliminary result of economic losses in South Korea in case of a Mt. Baedu eruption. The Korean peninsula has Mt. Baekdu in North Korea, which will soon enter an active phase, according to volcanologists. The anticipated eruption will be explosive given the viscous and grassy silica-rich magma, and is expected to be one of the largest in recent millennia. We aim to assess the impacts of this eruption to South Korea and help government prepare for the volcanic disasters. In particular, the economic impact from volcanic ash is estimated given the distance from Mt. Baedu to South Korea. In order to scientifically estimate losses from volcanic ash, we need volcanic ash thickness, inventory database, and damage functions between ash thickness and damage ratios for each inventory item. We use the volcanic ash thickness calculated by other research groups in Korea, and they estimated the ash thickness for each eruption scenario using average wind fields. Damage functions are built using the historical damage data in the world, and inventory database is obtained from available digital maps in Korea. According to the preliminary results, the economic impact from volcanic ash is not significant because the ash is rarely deposited in South Korea under general weather conditions. However, the ash can impact human health and environment. Also worst case scenarios can have the significant economic impacts in Korea, and may result in global issues. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant [NEMA-BAEKDUSAN-2012-1-3] from the Volcanic Disaster Preparedness Research Center sponsored by National Emergency Management Agency of Korea.

Troublesome trends: population growth, distribution, migration.

PubMed

1994-09-01

The upcoming International Conference on Population and Development and its draft plan of action call for international cooperation in protecting and assisting refugees and displaced persons and in assuring positive consequences in host and origin countries. The draft plan also aims to protect the elderly through enhancing self-reliance and continued work and independent living in their own communities. Social support systems for the elderly must also be strengthened. The document is also concerned with the movement of population to cities and across borders. Recommendations on migration encourage governments to evaluate the impact of economic and environmental policies on population distribution and migration, to promote development of medium-sized urban centers, to encourage rural economic development and placement of industries in rural areas, and to support access to land ownership or use and access to water resources in rural areas. Rural infrastructure and social services need to be improved. Grassroots organizations and cooperatives for establishing credit and marketing products are emphasized. Weak local area management is an obstacle to socioeconomic development, environmental protection, and population distribution. Waste, water, and land management strategies should be adopted. Prevention of the root causes of displacement is particularly important when environmental damage is the consequence or the cause. Women, children, and the elderly who are displaced need protection. Refugee numbers have swelled from 8.5 million in 1985 to 19 million in 1993. Sudden and mass refugee arrivals should be afforded temporary protection until a solution can be found. Conditions must be created for safe and dignified, voluntary repatriation. The social and economic integration of documented, longterm migrants must be assured.

The economic impact of alcohol abuse and alcoholism.

PubMed Central

Burke, T R

1988-01-01

The economic effects of alcohol abuse are as damaging to the nation as the health effects, affecting the family, the community, and persons of all ages. Underaged drinking is interfering with children's development, affecting the nation's ability to respond to economic challenge in the future. The college aged may be the most difficult to educate about alcohol abuse because of drinking patterns established at an early age and susceptibility to advertising inducements. Health care costs for families with an alcoholic member are twice those for families without one, and up to half of all emergency room admissions are alcohol related. Fetal alcohol syndrome is one of the top three known causes of birth defects, and is totally preventable. Alcohol abuse and alcoholism are estimated to have cost the nation $117 billion in 1983, while nonalcoholic drug abuse that year cost $60 billion. Costs of alcohol abuse are expected to be $136 billion a year by 1990, mostly from lost productivity and employment. Between 6 and 7 million workers are alcoholic, with an undetermined loss of productivity, profits, and competitiveness of American business. Alcohol abuse contributes to the high health care costs of the elderly beneficiaries of Federal health financing programs. Heavily affected minorities include blacks, Hispanics, and Native Americans. Society tends to treat the medical and social consequences of alcohol abuse, rather than its causes. Although our experience with the consequences of alcohol abuse is greater than that for any other drug, public concern for its prevention and treatment is less than for other major illnesses or abuse of other drugs.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:3141948

Insights from socio-hydrology modelling on dealing with flood risk - Roles of collective memory, risk-taking attitude and trust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viglione, Alberto; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Brandimarte, Luigia; Kuil, Linda; Carr, Gemma; Salinas, José Luis; Scolobig, Anna; Blöschl, Günter

2014-10-01

The risk coping culture of a community plays a major role in the development of urban floodplains. In this paper we analyse, in a conceptual way, the interplay of community risk coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. We particularly focus on three aspects: (i) collective memory, i.e., the capacity of the community to keep risk awareness high; (ii) risk-taking attitude, i.e., the amount of risk the community is collectively willing to be exposed to; and (iii) trust of the community in risk reduction measures. To this end, we use a dynamic model that represents the feedback between the hydrological and social system components. Model results indicate that, on the one hand, by under perceiving the risk of flooding (because of short collective memory and too much trust in flood protection structures) in combination with a high risk-taking attitude, community development is severely limited because of high damages caused by flooding. On the other hand, overestimation of risk (long memory and lack of trust in flood protection structures) leads to lost economic opportunities and recession. There are many scenarios of favourable development resulting from a trade-off between collective memory and trust in risk reduction measures combined with a low to moderate risk-taking attitude. Interestingly, the model gives rise to situations in which the development of the community in the floodplain is path dependent, i.e., the history of flooding may lead to community growth or recession.

Temporal changes in distribution, prevalence and intensity of northern fowl mite (Ornithonyssus sylviarum) parasitism in commercial caged laying hens, with a comprehensive economic analysis of parasite impact.

PubMed

Mullens, Bradley A; Owen, Jeb P; Kuney, Douglas R; Szijj, Coralie E; Klingler, Kimberly A

2009-03-09

Establishment and spread of Ornithonyssus sylviarum were documented through time on sentinel hens (50 per house of 28,000-30,000 hens) in the first egg production cycle of three large commercial flocks (12 houses) of white leghorn hens. Mites were controlled using acaricide, and the impacts of treatment on mite populations and economic performance were documented. Mite prevalence and intensity increased rapidly and in tandem for 4-8 weeks after infestation. Intensity declined due to immune system involvement, but prevalence remained high, and this would affect mite sampling plan use and development. Early treatment was more effective at controlling mites; 85% of light infestations were eliminated by a pesticide spray (Ravap), versus 24% of heavy infestations. Hens infested later developed lower peak mite intensities, and those mite populations declined more quickly than on hens infested earlier in life. Raw spatial association by distance indices (SADIE), incorporating both the intensity and distribution of mites within a house, were high from week-to-week within a hen house. Once adjusted spatially to reflect variable hen cohorts becoming infested asynchronously, this analysis showed the association index tended to rebound at intervals of 5-6 weeks after the hen immune system first suppressed them. Large, consistent mite differences in one flock (high vs. low infestation levels) showed the economic damage of mite parasitism (assessed by flock indexing) was very high in the initial stages of mite expansion. Unmitigated infestations overall reduced egg production (2.1-4.0%), individual egg weights (0.5-2.2%), and feed conversion efficiency (5.7%), causing a profit reduction of $0.07-0.10 per hen for a 10-week period. Asynchronous infestation patterns among pesticide-treated hens may have contributed to a lack of apparent flock-level economic effects later in the production cycle. Individual egg weights differed with mite loads periodically, but could be either higher or lower, depending on circumstances and interactions with hen weight. Individual hen weight gains were depressed by high/moderate mite loads, but the heavier hens in a flock harbored more mites. This led to compensatory weight gains after mites declined. Tradeoffs between resource allocation to body growth or production versus immune system function appeared to be operating during the early and most damaging mite infestation period, when high egg production was beginning and the hens were gaining weight. The results were related to other studies of mite impact on domestic hens and to wild bird-ectoparasite studies. Much of the mite economic damage probably is due to engaging and maintaining the immune response.

Damage assessment of RC buildings subjected to the different strong motion duration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortezaei, Alireza; mohajer Tabrizi, Mohsen

2015-07-01

An earthquake has three important characteristics; namely, amplitude, frequency content and duration. Amplitude and frequency content have a direct impact but not necessarily the sole cause of structural damage. Regarding the duration, some researchers show a high correlation between strong motion duration and structural damage whereas some others find no relation. This paper focuses on the ground motion durations characterized by Arias Intensity (AI). High duration may increase the damage state of structure for the damage accumulation. This paper investigates the response time histories (acceleration, velocity and displacement) of RC buildings under the different strong motion durations. Generally, eight earthquake records were selected from different soil type, and these records were grouped according to their PGA and frequency ranges. Maximum plastic rotation and drift response was chosen as damage indicator. In general, there was a positive correlation between strong motion duration and damage; however, in some PGA and frequency ranges input motions with shorter durations might cause more damage than the input motions with longer durations. In soft soils, input motions with longer durations caused more damage than the input motions with shorter durations.

Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

2010-12-01

Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward-looking economic modules, and the initial models will help guide the construction of more refined models that can effectively use more powerful computational environments to analyze economic policies related to climate change. REFERENCES Brock, W., Xepapadeas, A., 2010, “An Integration of Simple Dynamic Energy Balance Climate Models and Ramsey Growth Models,” Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, and University of Athens. Golub, A., Hertel, T., etal., 2009, “The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry,” RESOURCE AND ENERGY ECONOMICS, 31, 299-319. Judd, K., 1992, “Projection methods for solving aggregate growth models,” JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY, 58: 410-52. Judd, K., 1998, NUMERICAL METHODS IN ECONOMICS, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass. Nordhaus, W., 2007, A QUESTION OF BALANCE: ECONOMIC MODELS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, Yale University Press, New Haven, CT. North, G., R., Cahalan, R., Coakely, J., 1981, “Energy balance climate models,” REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS AND SPACE PHYSICS, Vol. 19, No. 1, 91-121, February Wu, W., North, G. R., 2007, “Thermal decay modes of a 2-D energy balance climate model,” TELLUS, 59A, 618-626.

Assessment of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

2013-12-01

Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. The Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Therefore, investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of adaptation strategy for future climate change. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published 'Statistics of flood', which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. By using these flood data, we estimated damage by inundation inside a levee for each prefecture based on a statistical method. On the basis of estimated damage, we developed flood risk curves in the Tokyo metropolitan area, representing relationship between damage and exceedance probability of flood for the period 1976-2008 for each prefecture. Based on the flood risk curve, we attempted evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause for regional difference of flood risk. By analyzing flood risk curves, we found out regional differences of flood risk. We identified high flood risk in Tokyo and Saitama prefecture. On the other hand, flood risk was relatively low in Ibaraki and Chiba prefecture. We found that these regional differences of flood risk can be attributed to spatial distribution of entire property value and ratio of damaged housing units in each prefecture.We also attempted to evaluate influence of climate change on potential flood risk by considering variation of precipitation amount and precipitation intensity in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Results shows that we can evaluate potential impact of precipitation change on flood risk with high accuracy by using our methodology. Acknowledgments This study is conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) and was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan

Nanogravimetric and voltammetric DNA-hybridization biosensors for studies of DNA damage by common toxicants and pollutants.

PubMed

Nowicka, Anna M; Kowalczyk, Agata; Stojek, Zbigniew; Hepel, Maria

2010-01-01

Electrochemical and nanogravimetric DNA-hybridization biosensors have been developed for sensing single mismatches in the probe-target ssDNA sequences. The voltammetric transduction was achieved by coupling ferrocene moiety to streptavidin linked to biotinylated tDNA. The mass-related frequency transduction was implemented by immobilizing the sensory pDNA on a gold-coated quartz crystal piezoresonators oscillating in the 10MHz band. The high sensitivity of these sensors enabled us to study DNA damage caused by representative toxicants and environmental pollutants, including Cr(VI) species, common pesticides and herbicides. We have found that the sensor responds rapidly to any damage caused by Cr(VI) species, with more severe DNA damage observed for Cr(2)O(7)(2-) and for CrO(4)(2-) in the presence of H(2)O(2) as compared to CrO(4)(2-) alone. All herbicides and pesticides examined caused DNA damage or structural alterations leading to the double-helix unwinding. Among these compounds, paraoxon-ethyl and atrazine caused the fastest and most severe damage to DNA. The physico-chemical mechanism of damaging interactions between toxicants and DNA has been proposed. The methodology of testing voltammetric and nanogravimetric DNA-hybridization biosensors developed in this work can be employed as a simple protocol to obtain rapid comparative data concerning DNA damage caused by herbicide, pesticides and other toxic pollutants. The DNA-hybridization biosensor can, therefore, be utilized as a rapid screening device for classifying environmental pollutants and to evaluate DNA damage induced by these compounds.

Scientists raise alarms about fast tracking of transoceanic canal through Nicaragua.

PubMed

Huete-Pérez, Jorge A; Alvarez, Pedro J J; Schnoor, Jerald L; Rittmann, Bruce E; Clayton, Anthony; Acosta, Maria L; Bicudo, Carlos E M; K Arroyo, Mary T; Brett, Michael T; Campos, Victor M; Chaimovich, Hernan; Jimenez-Cisneros, Blanca; Covich, Alan; Lacerda, Luiz D; Maes, Jean-Michel; Miranda, Julio C; Montenegro-Guillén, Salvador; Ortega-Hegg, Manuel; Urquhart, Gerald R; Vammen, Katherine; Zambrano, Luis

2015-04-07

Seeking economic growth and job creation to tackle the nation's extreme poverty, the Nicaraguan government awarded a concession to build an interoceanic canal and associated projects to a recently formed Hong Kong based company with no track record or related expertise. This concession was awarded without a bidding process and in advance of any feasibility, socio-economic or environmental impact assessments; construction has begun without this information. The 278 km long interoceanic canal project may result in significant environmental and social impairments. Of particular concern are damage to Lake Cocibolca, a unique freshwater tropical lake and Central America's main freshwater reservoir; damage to regional biodiversity and ecosystems; and socio-economic impacts. Concerned about the possibly irreparable damage to the environment and to native communities, conservationists and the scientific community at large are urging the Nicaraguan government to devise and reveal an action plan to address and mitigate the possible negative repercussions of this interoceanic canal and associated projects. Critical research needs for preparation of a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis for this megaproject are presented.

Ho Chi Minh City adaptation to increasing risk of coastal and fluvial floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scussolini, Paolo; Lasage, Ralph

2016-04-01

Coastal megacities in southeast Asia are a hotspot of vulnerability to floods. In such contexts, the combination of fast socio-economic development and of climate change impacts on precipitation and sea level generates concerns about the flood damage to people and assets. This work focuses on Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, for which we estimate the present and future direct risk from river and coastal floods. A model cascade is used that comprises the Saigon river basin and the urban network, plus the land-use-dependent damaging process. Changes in discharge for five return periods are simulated, enabling the probabilistic calculation of the expected annual economic damage to assets, for differnt scenarios of global emissions, local socio-economic growth, and land subsidence, up to year 2100. The implementation of a range of adaptation strategies is simulated, including building dykes, elevating, creating reservoirs, managing water and sediment upstream, flood-proofing, halting groundwater abstraction. Results are presented on 1) the relative weight of each future driver in determining the flood risk of Ho Chi Minh, and 2) the efficiency and feasibility of each adaptation strategy.

76 FR 54521 - Montana Disaster Number MT-00062

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-01

... adversely affected by the disaster: Primary Counties: (Physical Damage and Economic Injury Loans): Blaine..., Rosebud, Toole, Wibaux, and the Fort Peck Reservation. Contiguous Counties: (Economic Injury Loans Only): Montana: Beaverhead, Dawson, Glacier, Lincoln, Richland, Sheridan. Idaho: Fremont. North Dakota: Bowman...

Nucleotide excision repair deficient mouse models and neurological disease

PubMed Central

Niedernhofer, Laura J.

2008-01-01

Nucleotide excision repair (NER) is a highly conserved mechanism to remove helix-distorting DNA base damage. A major substrate for NER is DNA damage caused by environmental genotoxins, most notably ultraviolet radiation. Xeroderma pigmentosum, Cockayne syndrome and trichothiodystrophy are three human diseases caused by inherited defects in NER. The symptoms and severity of these diseases vary dramatically, ranging from profound developmental delay to cancer predisposition and accelerated aging. All three syndromes include neurological disease, indicating an important role for NER in protecting against spontaneous DNA damage as well. To study the pathophysiology caused by DNA damage, numerous mouse models of NER deficiency were generated by knocking-out genes required for NER or knocking-in disease-causing human mutations. This review explores the utility of these mouse models to study neurological disease caused by NER deficiency. PMID:18272436

Karaya gum electrocardiographic electrodes for preterm infants.

PubMed Central

Cartlidge, P H; Rutter, N

1987-01-01

Changes in transepidermal water loss were used to measure skin damage caused by removal of electrocardiograph electrodes in 20 preterm infants. Electrodes secured by conventional adhesive damaged the skin, leading to a potentially dangerous increase in skin permeability. In contrast, those secured by karaya gum caused no skin damage. PMID:3435167

Guidelines for treatment of lice in sheep with long wool based on a model of the development of wool damage.

PubMed

Lucas, P G; Horton, B J

2014-01-01

This study used a model of the development of wool damage caused by lice in long wool to examine the conditions under which treatment of the sheep is advisable on an economic basis. The model uses the proportion of a flock showing visible signs of rubbing and the number of days until the next shearing to compare the cost of treatment (product plus labour) with production losses because of the reduction in wool value caused by lice. From the model output, guidelines are provided to inform producers of the most cost-effective option for lice control. Under normal conditions, if there are any signs of rubbing ≥140 days before shearing, then treatment was the best option. If signs of wool damage are not observed until there are ≤70 days before shearing, then the most cost-effective option is to not treat at all. Between these two periods, the time period in which not treating is the most cost-effective option decreases as the number of sheep visibly affected by lice increases. At higher wool values (A$70/head vs A$35), the option to treat is brought forward approximately 25 days, whereas at a low wool value (A$17.50/head) the period in which no treatment is the most cost-effective is extended by approximately 25 days. Treating only the visibly affected sheep is the best option only for a very short time for all wool values and treatment costs. The model provides guidelines for control of lice in long wool to minimise the net cost of infestation and limit unnecessary pesticide use. © 2014 Australian Veterinary Association.

Flood risk in a changing world - a coupled transdisciplinary modelling framework for flood risk assessment in an Alpine study area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneeberger, Klaus; Winter, Benjamin; Pazur, Robert; Förster, Kristian; Achleitner, Stefan; Bolliger, Janine

2017-04-01

Devastating flood events have caused substantial economic damage across Europe during past decades. Flood risk management has therefore become a topic of crucial interest across state agencies, research communities and the public sector including insurances. There is consensus that mitigating flood risk relies on impact assessments which quantitatively account for a broad range of aspects in a (changing) environment. Flood risk assessments which take into account the interaction between the drivers climate change, land-use change and socio-economic change might bring new insights to the understanding of the magnitude and spatial characteristic of flood risks. Furthermore, the comparative assessment of different adaptation measures can give valuable information for decision-making. With this contribution we present an inter- and transdisciplinary research project aiming at developing and applying such an impact assessment relying on a coupled modelling framework for the Province of Vorarlberg in Austria. Stakeholder engagement ensures that the final outcomes of our study are accepted and successfully implemented in flood management practice. The study addresses three key questions: (i) What are scenarios of land- use and climate change for the study area? (ii) How will the magnitude and spatial characteristic of future flood risk change as a result of changes in climate and land use? (iii) Are there spatial planning and building-protection measures which effectively reduce future flood risk? The modelling framework has a modular structure comprising modules (i) climate change, (ii) land-use change, (iii) hydrologic modelling, (iv) flood risk analysis, and (v) adaptation measures. Meteorological time series are coupled with spatially explicit scenarios of land-use change to model runoff time series. The runoff time series are combined with impact indicators such as building damages and results are statistically assessed to analyse flood risk scenarios. Thus, the regional flood risk can be expressed in terms of expected annual damage and damages associated with a low probability of occurrence. We consider building protection measures explicitly as part of the consequence analysis of flood risk whereas spatial planning measures are already considered as explicit scenarios in the course of land-use change modelling.

Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused by ozone was about 5.0-5.6% in the SSP2 scenario and 3.8-4.2% in the RCP scenario.

Comparison of magnetic properties of austenitic stainless steel after ion irradiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Chaoliang; Liu, Xiangbing; Xue, Fei; Li, Yuanfei; Qian, Wangjie

2018-07-01

Specimens of austenitic stainless steel (ASS) were irradiated with H, Fe and Xe ions at room temperature. The vibrating sample magnetometer (VSM) and grazing incidence X-ray diffraction (GIXRD) were used to analyze the magnetic properties and martensite formation. The magnetic hysteresis loops indicated that higher irradiation damage causes more significant magnetization phenomenon. Under the same damage level, Xe irradiation causes the most significant magnetization, Fe irradiation is the second, and H irradiation is the least. A similar martensite amount variation with irradiation can be obtained. The coercivity Hc increases first to 2 dpa and then decreases continuously with irradiation damage for Xe irradiation. At the same damage lever, H irradiation causes a largest Hc and Xe irradiation causes a minimal one.

The Invasive Liriomyza huidobrensis (Diptera: Agromyzidae): Understanding Its Pest Status and Management Globally

PubMed Central

Scheffer, Sonja J.; Visser, Diedrich; Valladares, Graciela; Soares Correa, Alberto; Shepard, B. Merle; Rauf, Aunu; Murphy, Sean T.; Mujica, Norma; MacVean, Charles; Kroschel, Jürgen; Kishinevsky, Miriam; Joshi, Ravindra C.; Johansen, Nina S.; Hallett, Rebecca H.; Civelek, Hasan S.; Chen, Bing; Metzler, Helga Blanco

2017-01-01

Liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard) is native to South America but has expanded its range and invaded many regions of the world, primarily on flowers and to a lesser extent on horticultural product shipments. As a result of initial invasion into an area, damage caused is usually significant but not necessarily sustained. Currently, it is an economic pest in selected native and invaded regions of the world. Adults cause damage by puncturing abaxial and adaxial leaf surfaces for feeding and egg laying sites. Larvae mine the leaf parenchyma tissues which can lead to leaves drying and wilting. We have recorded 365 host plant species from 49 families and more than 106 parasitoid species. In a subset of the Argentinian data, we found that parasitoid community composition attacking L. huidobrensis differs significantly in cultivated and uncultivated plants. No such effect was found at the world level, probably due to differences in collection methods in the different references. We review the existing knowledge as a means of setting the context for new and unpublished data. The main objective is to provide an update of widely dispersed and until now unpublished data, evaluate dispersion of the leafminer and management strategies in different regions of the world, and highlight the need to consider the possible effects of climate change on further regional invasions or expansions. PMID:28423426

MH17: the Malaysian experience.

PubMed

Khoo, L S; Hasmi, A H; Abdul Ghani Aziz, S A; Ibrahim, M A; Mahmood, M S

2016-04-01

A disaster is a natural or man-made (or technological) hazard resulting in an event of substantial extent causing significant physical damage or destruction, loss of life, or drastic change to the environment. It is a phenomenon that can cause damage to life and property and destroy the economic, social and cultural life of the people; and overwhelms the capacity of the community to cope with the event. The recent tragic aviation accidents in 2014 involving Malaysia Airlines flights MH370 and MH17 shocked the world in an unprecedented manner. This paper focuses on the Malaysian experience in the MH17 mission in Ukraine as well as the first ever international Disaster Victim Identification (DVI) operation for the Malaysian DVI team. The DVI operations in Hilversum, the Netherlands were well described in stages. The Netherlands' Landelijk Team Forensische Opsporing as the lead DVI team in Hilversum operated systematically, ensuring the success of the whole mission. This paper discusses the lessons learned by the Malaysian team on proper DVI structure, inter- and intra-agency cooperation, facilities planning and set up, logistics and health and safety aspects, as well as effective communication and collaboration with other international delegates. Several issues and challenges faced by the Malaysian team were also documented. In addition, the authors shared views, opinions and recommendations for a more comprehensive DVI operation in the future.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Economic costs of electrical system instability and power outages caused by snakes on the Island of Guam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fritts, T.H.

2002-01-01

The Brown Tree Snake, Boiga irregularis, is an introduced species on Guam where it causes frequent electrical power outages. The snake's high abundance, its propensity for climbing, and use of disturbed habitats all contribute to interruption of Guam's electrical service and the activities that depend on electrical power. Snakes have caused more than 1600 power outages in the 20-yr period of 1978–1997 and most recently nearly 200 outages per year. Single outages spanning the entire island and lasting 8 or more hours are estimated to cost in excess of $3,000,000 in lost productivity, but the costs of outages that involve only parts of the island or those of shorter durations are more difficult to quantify. Costs to the island's economy have exceeded $4.5 M $4.5M"> per year over a 7-yr period without considering repair costs, damage to electrical equipment, and lost revenues. Snakes pose the greatest problem on high voltage transmission lines, on transformers, and inside electrical substations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tyler, Brett M.; Tripathi, Sucheta; Aerts, Andrea

The approximately 60 species of Phytophthora are all destructive pathogens, causing rots of roots, stems, leaves and fruits of a wide range of agriculturally and ornamentally important plants (1). Some species, such as P. cinnamomi, P. parasitica and P. cactorum, each attack hundreds of different plant host species, whereas others are more restricted. Some of the crops where Phytophthora infections cause the greatest financial losses include potato, soybean, tomato, alfalfa, tobacco, peppers, cucurbits, pineapple, strawberry, raspberry and a wide range of perennial tree crops, especially citrus, avocado, almonds, walnuts, apples and cocoa, and they also heavily affect the ornamental, nurserymore » and forestry industries. The economic damage overall to crops in the United States by Phytophthora species is estimated in the tens of billions of dollars, including the costs of control measures, and worldwide it is many times this amount (1). In the northern midwest of the U.S., P. sojae causes $200 million in annual losses to soybean alone, and worldwide causes around $1-2 billion in losses per year. P. infestans infections resulted in the Irish potato famine last century and continues to be a difficult and worsening problem for potato and tomato growers worldwide, with worldwide costs estimated at $5 billion per year.« less

Civilian Manning of AE, AFS, and AD Type Support Ships. Volume II. Appendices.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-04-05

Manpower FYDP Cost Calculations ...... G-1 APPENDIX H - Navy Military Manpower Economic CostLA Calculations ....................................... H...AND AMERICAN MARITIME OFFICERS - Recognizing the serious economic problems confronting the American Merchant Marine with consequential adverse effects...Mindful that certain economic interests both foreign and *" domestic have and are creating substantial damage to an American national resource, our

Comparative risk assessments for the city of Pointe-à-Pitre (French West Indies): earthquakes and storm surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reveillere, A. R.; Bertil, D. B.; Douglas, J. D.; Grisanti, L. G.; Lecacheux, S. L.; Monfort, D. M.; Modaressi, H. M.; Müller, H. M.; Rohmer, J. R.; Sedan, O. S.

2012-04-01

In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exist in a few other countries. For instance, the Risk Map Germany project has developed and applied a methodology for quantitatively comparing the risk of relevant natural hazards at various scales (city, state) in Germany. The present on-going work applies a similar methodology to the Pointe-à-Pitre urban area, which represents more than half of the population of Guadeloupe, an overseas region in the French West Indies. Relevant hazards as well as hazard intensity levels differ from continental Europe, which will lead to different conclusions. French West Indies are prone to a large number of hazards, among which hurricanes, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes dominate. Hurricanes cause damage through three phenomena: wind, heavy rainfall and storm surge, the latter having had a preeminent role during the largest historical event in 1928. Seismic risk is characterized by many induced phenomena, among which earthquake shocks dominate. This study proposes a comparison of earthquake and cyclonic storm surge risks. Losses corresponding to hazard intensities having the same probability of occurrence are calculated. They are quantified in a common loss unit, chosen to be the direct economic losses. Intangible or indirect losses are not considered. The methodology therefore relies on (i) a probabilistic hazard assessment, (ii) a loss ratio estimation for the exposed elements and (iii) an economic estimation of these assets. Storm surge hazard assessment is based on the selection of relevant historical cyclones and on the simulation of the associated wave and cyclonic surge. The combined local sea elevations, called "set-up", are then fitted with a statistical distribution in order to obtain its time return characteristics. Several run-ups are then extracted, the inundation areas are calculated and the relative losses of the affected assets are deduced. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment and the exposed elements location and seismic vulnerability result from past public risk assessment studies. The loss estimations are computed for several return time periods, measured in percentage of buildings being in a given EMS-98 damage state per grid block, which are then converted into loss ratio. In parallel, an asset estimation is conducted. It is mainly focused on private housing, but it considers some major public infrastructures as well. The final outcome of this work is a direct economic loss-frequency plot for earthquake and storm surge. The Probable Maximum Loss and the Average Annual Loss derivate from this risk curve. In addition, different sources of uncertainty are identified through the loss estimation process. The full propagation of these uncertainties can provide an interval of confidence, which can be assigned to the risk-curve and we show how such additional information can be useful for risk comparison.

76 FR 70751 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Information Collection; Economic Contribution...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-15

... Degraded, Damaged, or Destroyed Ecosystems AGENCY: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Interior. ACTION: Notice... environmental damages and to improve the health and resiliency of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems are currently in progress. Federal investments in ecosystem restoration and monitoring protect Federal...

Measuring county resilience after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Lam, N.; Qiang, Y.; Li, K.; Yin, L.; Liu, S.; Zheng, W.

2015-01-01

The catastrophic earthquake in 2008 has caused serious damage to Wenchuan County and the surrounding area in China. In recent years, great attention has been paid to the resilience of the affected area. This study applied a new framework, the Resilience Inference Measurement (RIM) model, to quantify and validate the community resilience of 105 counties in the affected area. The RIM model uses cluster analysis to classify counties into four resilience levels according to the exposure, damage, and recovery conditions, and then applies discriminant analysis to quantify the influence of socioeconomic characteristics on the county resilience. The analysis results show that counties located right at the epicenter had the lowest resilience, but counties immediately adjacent to the epicenter had the highest resilience capacities. Counties that were farther away from the epicenter returned to normal resiliency. The socioeconomic variables, including sex ratio, per capita GDP, percent of ethnic minority, and medical facilities, were identified as the most influential socio-economic characteristics on resilience. This study provides useful information to improve county resilience to earthquakes and support decision-making for sustainable development.

A decade of a thrips invasion in China: lessons learned.

PubMed

Wu, Shengyong; Tang, Liangde; Zhang, Xingrui; Xing, Zhenlong; Lei, Zhongren; Gao, Yulin

2017-10-11

The Western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis Pergande (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) is an invasive polyphagous pest with an expanding global range that damages a wide variety of crops. F. occidentalis was first reported in China from Yunnan province during 2000, and has rapidly expanded its range since then. It is currently distributed across at least 10 provinces in China and has become a particularly devastating pest, causing substantial damage and economic losses. At present, the still heavy reliance on frequent use of insecticides for control of F. occidentalis, has lead to a series of ecological problems stemming from insecticide resistance, interspecific displacement and non-target effects. Thus, integrated pest management (IPM) programmes, multiple complementary tactics, including preventive tactics, biological controls, and judicious use of insecticides will likely provide a viable IPM strategy for control of F. occidentalis in the near future. This review provides an overview for information gained during the 10+ years since the invasion of F. occidentalis into China, reviews lessons that have been learned enhancing our overall understanding of the biology and ecology of F. occidentalis and discusses IPM practices relative to this widespread invasive insect pest.

Excavation-caused extra deformation of existing masonry residence in soft soil region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Y.; Franceschelli, S.

2017-04-01

Growing need for construction of infrastructures and buildings in fast urbanization process creates challenges of interaction between buildings under construction and adjacent existing buildings. This paper presents the mitigation of contradiction between two parties who are involved the interaction using civil engineering techniques. Through the in-depth analysis of the results of monitoring surveys and enhanced accuracy and reliability of surveys, a better understanding of the behavior of deformable buildings is achieved. Combination with the original construction documents, the two parties agree that both of them are responsible for building damages and a better understanding for the rehabilitation of the existing buildings is focused on. Two cases studies are used to demonstrate and describe the importance of better understanding of the behavior of existing buildings and their rehabilitations. The objective of this study is to insight into mechanisms of soil-structure interaction for buildings adjacent to deep excavations, which can result in a damage in existing masonry residence, and to take the optimized measures to make deep excavations safety and economic and adjacent buildings keep good serviceability in urban areas with soft soil conditions.

Earthquakes, May-June 1981

USGS Publications Warehouse

Person, W.J.

1981-01-01

The months of May and June were somewhat quiet, seismically speaking. There was one major earthquake (7.0-7.9) off the west coast of South Island, New Zealand. The most destructive earthquake during this reporting period was in southern Iran on June 11 which caused fatalities and extensive damage. Peru also experienced a destructive earthquake on June 22 which caused fatalities and damage. In the United States, a number of earthquakes were experienced, but none caused significant damage. 

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

2016-04-01

Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

Simulating Direct and Indirect Damages to Commercial Fisheries from Marine Sand Mining: A Case Study in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Tae-Guon; Grigalunas, Thomas

2009-09-01

Rapid growth in marine sand mining for construction and other uses poses environmental challenges to coastal nations virtually worldwide. Yet the development of management policies, such as a system of fees imposed on operators for damage caused by mining, has been frustrated by a lack of studies to support such measures. Adapting a Beverton-Holt bioeconomic model, this paper attempts to contribute to the estimation of external costs to commercial fisheries due to marine mining. Using the major mining area of Ongjin in Korea as a case study, we estimate economic losses in use value of commercial fisheries through the time to recovery of the injured resource stocks. Present value of lost catch over a 1-year period from mining to resource recovery is estimated at 38,851 for a single “prototype” mining site. Estimated cumulative damages due to recurring mining for 5 and 10 years are 1.5 million and 2.2 million, respectively, at 20 mining sites. Sensitivity analyses are used to examine the effects of alternative assumptions to assess the many sources of uncertainty. Using a form of meta-analysis, dose-response information is used to assess the excess mortality the mining sediment plume has on eggs and larvae and, ultimately, on the value of lost catch (841). Also addressed is the importance of specifying the appropriate “premining” conditions against which to assess environmental losses at the mining site. Damages estimated with premining fish populations are 23,066 higher than is the case using postmining conditions. Overall, the illustrative results suggest the variety of complex conditions which influence damage to fisheries from mining and which can benefit from further study to improve management guidelines.

Uni- and multi-variable modelling of flood losses: experiences gained from the Secchia river inundation event.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carisi, Francesca; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Castellarin, Attilio

2017-04-01

Flood risk is function of flood hazard and vulnerability, therefore its accurate assessment depends on a reliable quantification of both factors. The scientific literature proposes a number of objective and reliable methods for assessing flood hazard, yet it highlights a limited understanding of the fundamental damage processes. Loss modelling is associated with large uncertainty which is, among other factors, due to a lack of standard procedures; for instance, flood losses are often estimated based on damage models derived in completely different contexts (i.e. different countries or geographical regions) without checking its applicability, or by considering only one explanatory variable (i.e. typically water depth). We consider the Secchia river flood event of January 2014, when a sudden levee-breach caused the inundation of nearly 200 km2 in Northern Italy. In the aftermath of this event, local authorities collected flood loss data, together with additional information on affected private households and industrial activities (e.g. buildings surface and economic value, number of company's employees and others). Based on these data we implemented and compared a quadratic-regression damage function, with water depth as the only explanatory variable, and a multi-variable model that combines multiple regression trees and considers several explanatory variables (i.e. bagging decision trees). Our results show the importance of data collection revealing that (1) a simple quadratic regression damage function based on empirical data from the study area can be significantly more accurate than literature damage-models derived for a different context and (2) multi-variable modelling may outperform the uni-variable approach, yet it is more difficult to develop and apply due to a much higher demand of detailed data.

FEMA Asteroid Impact Tabletop Exercise Simulations

DOE PAGES

Boslough, Mark; Jennings, Barbara; Carvey, Brad; ...

2015-05-19

We describe the computational simulations and damage assessments that we provided in support of a tabletop exercise (TTX) at the request of NASA's Near-Earth Objects Program Office. The overall purpose of the exercise was to assess leadership reactions, information requirements, and emergency management responses to a hypothetical asteroid impact with Earth. The scripted exercise consisted of discovery, tracking, and characterization of a hypothetical asteroid; inclusive of mission planning, mitigation, response, impact to population, infrastructure and GDP, and explicit quantification of uncertainty. Participants at the meeting included representatives of NASA, Department of Defense, Department of State, Department of Homeland Security/Federal Emergencymore » Management Agency (FEMA), and the White House. The exercise took place at FEMA headquarters. Sandia's role was to assist the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in developing the impact scenario, to predict the physical effects of the impact, and to forecast the infrastructure and economic losses. We ran simulations using Sandia's CTH hydrocode to estimate physical effects on the ground, and to produce contour maps indicating damage assessments that could be used as input for the infrastructure and economic models. We used the FASTMap tool to provide estimates of infrastructure damage over the affected area, and the REAcct tool to estimate the potential economic severity expressed as changes to GDP (by nation, region, or sector) due to damage and short-term business interruptions.« less

FEMA Asteroid Impact Tabletop Exercise Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boslough, Mark; Jennings, Barbara; Carvey, Brad

We describe the computational simulations and damage assessments that we provided in support of a tabletop exercise (TTX) at the request of NASA's Near-Earth Objects Program Office. The overall purpose of the exercise was to assess leadership reactions, information requirements, and emergency management responses to a hypothetical asteroid impact with Earth. The scripted exercise consisted of discovery, tracking, and characterization of a hypothetical asteroid; inclusive of mission planning, mitigation, response, impact to population, infrastructure and GDP, and explicit quantification of uncertainty. Participants at the meeting included representatives of NASA, Department of Defense, Department of State, Department of Homeland Security/Federal Emergencymore » Management Agency (FEMA), and the White House. The exercise took place at FEMA headquarters. Sandia's role was to assist the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in developing the impact scenario, to predict the physical effects of the impact, and to forecast the infrastructure and economic losses. We ran simulations using Sandia's CTH hydrocode to estimate physical effects on the ground, and to produce contour maps indicating damage assessments that could be used as input for the infrastructure and economic models. We used the FASTMap tool to provide estimates of infrastructure damage over the affected area, and the REAcct tool to estimate the potential economic severity expressed as changes to GDP (by nation, region, or sector) due to damage and short-term business interruptions.« less

The Air Quality and Economic Impact of Atmospheric Lead from General Aviation Aircraft in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfe, P. J.; Selin, N. E.; Barrett, S. R. H.

2015-12-01

While leaded fuels for automobiles were phased-out of use in the United States by 1996, lead (Pb) continues to be used as an anti-knock additive for piston-driven aircraft. We model the annual concentration of atmospheric lead attributable to piston driven aircraft emissions in the continental United States using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Using aircraft emissions inventories for 2008, we then calculate annual economic damages from lead as lifetime employment losses for a one-year cohort exposed to elevated atmospheric lead concentrations using a range of concentration response functions from literature. Mean and median estimates of annual damages attributable to lifetime lost earnings are 1.06 and 0.60 billion respectively. Economy-wide impacts of IQ-deficits on productivity and labor increase expected damages by 54%. Damages are sensitive to background lead concentrations; as emissions decrease from other sources, the damages attributable to aviation are expected to increase holding aviation emissions constant. The monetary impact of General Aviation lead emissions on the environment is the same order of magnitude as noise, climate change, and air quality degradation from all commercial operations.

Timber salvage economics

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

2008-01-01

Timber salvage is commonly done following natural disturbances, to recover some value from damaged forests. Decision making about salvage, however, is affected by ownership objectives, the nature of the damage agent, site factors, and the strength of the local timber market. For profit-maximizing landowners, salvage decisions must balance the cost of harvesting...

19 CFR 12.3 - Release under bond; liquidated damages.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 19 Customs Duties 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Release under bond; liquidated damages. 12.3 Section 12.3 Customs Duties U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY SPECIAL CLASSES OF MERCHANDISE Food, Drugs, and Cosmetics, Economic Poisons...

19 CFR 12.3 - Release under bond; liquidated damages.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 19 Customs Duties 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Release under bond; liquidated damages. 12.3 Section 12.3 Customs Duties U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY SPECIAL CLASSES OF MERCHANDISE Food, Drugs, and Cosmetics, Economic Poisons...

19 CFR 12.3 - Release under bond; liquidated damages.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 19 Customs Duties 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Release under bond; liquidated damages. 12.3 Section 12.3 Customs Duties U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY SPECIAL CLASSES OF MERCHANDISE Food, Drugs, and Cosmetics, Economic Poisons...

19 CFR 12.3 - Release under bond; liquidated damages.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 19 Customs Duties 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Release under bond; liquidated damages. 12.3 Section 12.3 Customs Duties U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY SPECIAL CLASSES OF MERCHANDISE Food, Drugs, and Cosmetics, Economic Poisons...

19 CFR 12.3 - Release under bond; liquidated damages.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 19 Customs Duties 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Release under bond; liquidated damages. 12.3 Section 12.3 Customs Duties U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY SPECIAL CLASSES OF MERCHANDISE Food, Drugs, and Cosmetics, Economic Poisons...

Near-infrared spectroscopy for detection of hailstorm damage on olive fruit

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A rapid, robust, unbiased and inexpensive discriminant method capable of classifying olive fruit (Olea europaea L.) on the basis of the presence of hailstorm damage is economically important to the olive oil milling industry. Thus, in the present study, the feasibility of Near-Infrared (NIR) spectro...

Predicting TDN losses from heat damaged hays and haylages with NIR

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

During the storage of hay or haylage, heating damage may occur and lead to losses of available protein and digestible nutrients. Recent research indicates that losses of TDN may be more significant economically than losses of available protein. Our objectives for this study were to establish a near-...

The Shale Gas Boom and the Need for Rational Policy

PubMed Central

Finkel, Madelon; Law, Adam

2013-01-01

High-volume, slick water hydraulic fracturing of shale relies on pumping millions of gallons of surface water laced with toxic chemicals and sand under high pressure to create fractures to release the flow of gas. The process, however, has the potential to cause serious and irreparable damage to the environment and the potential for harm to human and animal health. At issue is how society should form appropriate policy in the absence of well-designed epidemiological studies and health impact assessments. The issue is fraught with environmental, economic, and health implications, and federal and state governments must establish detailed safeguards and ensure regulatory oversight, both of which are presently lacking in states where hydraulic fracturing is allowed. PMID:23678928

[Medicopsychosocial syndrome of polygonosomies (XXX, XXY, XYY, syndromes etc...)].

PubMed

Benezech, M; Bourgeois, M

1976-01-01

This is an attempt to describe a common syndrom of polygonosomy. Medical, psychological and social incidences of XXX, XXY, XYY, genotypes indicate that these chromosomal aberrations share identical features: phenotypic abnormalities (high stature, dermatoglyphes abnormalities), neuropsychic troubles (neurological symptoms and mental fragility) and antisocial tendancy. One can suppose that at least some polygonosomic persons have a minimal brain dysfunction (or damage), which causes more vulnerability to environnement, deprivation and stress. Relational, educational and socio-economical factors appear now to have a marked role in the etiopathogenesis of these psychiatric troubles. Some forensic and ethical problems of human genetic research are reviewed, such as the so-called "criminal chromosome", supplementary Y chromosome, a myth based upon false and premature scientific assertions.

Prevention of communicable diseases after disaster: A review

PubMed Central

Jafari, Najmeh; Shahsanai, Armindokht; Memarzadeh, Mehrdad; Loghmani, Amir

2011-01-01

Natural disasters are tragic incidents originating from atmospheric, geologic and hydrologic changes. In recent decades, millions of people have been killed by natural disasters, resulting in economic damages. Natural and complex disasters dramatically increase the mortality and morbidity due to communicable diseases. The major causes of communicable disease in disasters are categorized into four sections: Infections due to contaminated food and water, respiratory infections, vector and insect-borne diseases, and infections due to wounds and injuries. With appropriate intervention, high morbidity and mortality resulting from communicable diseases can be avoided to a great deal. This review article tries to provide the best recommendations for planning and preparing to prevent communicable disease after disaster in two phases: before disaster and after disaster. PMID:22279466

Extreme precipitation and floods in the Iberian Peninsula and its socio-economic impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, A. M.; Pereira, S.; Trigo, R. M.; Zêzere, J. L.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula can induce floods and landslides that have often major socio-economic impacts. The DISASTER database gathered the basic information on past floods and landslides that caused social consequences in Portugal for the period 1865-2015. This database was built under the assumption that social consequences of floods and landslides are sufficient relevant to be reported by newspapers, that provide the data source. Three extreme historical events were analysed in detail taking into account their associated wide socio-economic impacts. The December 1876 record precipitation and flood event leading to an all-time record flow in two large international rivers (Tagus and Guadiana). As a direct consequence, several Portuguese and Spanish towns and villages located in the banks of both rivers suffered serious flood damage on 7 December 1876. The 20-28 December 1909 event recorded the highest number of flood and landslide cases that occurred in Portugal in the period 1865-2015, having triggered the highest floods in 200 years at the Douro river's mouth and causing 89 fatalities in both Portugal and Spain northern regions. More recently the deadliest flash-flooding event affecting Portugal since, at least, the early 19th century, took place on the 25 and 26 November 1967 causing more than 500 fatalities in the Lisbon region. We provide a detailed analysis of each of these events, including their human impacts, precipitation analyses based on historical datasets and the associated atmospheric circulation conditions from reanalysis datasets. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning [PTDC / ATPGEO / 1660/2014] funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal. A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/ SFRH/BPD/84328/2012). The financial support for attending this workshop was also possible through FCT project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz.

Design options analysis for a zero energy block of flats in Athens, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soulti, Eleni

Human activities and to a smaller degree other reasons have led to climate change. This is evident in meteorological phenomena and natural procedures which are constantly subject to modifications. Recent studies prove that a great percentage of the CO2 emissions, which are partly responsible for the climate change, are produced by buildings. In fact, a big part of them belongs to the residential sector. Countries like UK are quite aware of this problem, its causes, its consequences, as well as of some remedies that can at least limit the damage. Therefore, they develop the appropriate legislation, in an effort to decrease the problems and limit its causes. Greece, on the other hand, has been quite ineffective until now. Hopefully the new legislation will constrain the causes of the problem, in all sectors, including the building domain. This study involves designing a zero energy block of flats in Athens, with climatic data and environmental parameters taken into consideration from the initial steps of the design procedure. Appropriate software has been used in order to observe the improvement of thermal comfort conditions by changing the building design and using various strategies for passive cooling and heating. The predicted consumption of electricity, heating and cooling loads have been calculated and renewable sources of energy have been used in order to meet those needs. The economical analysis demonstrated that this type of building, is not only energy efficient and thermally comfortable for its occupants, but also economically profitable, especially with regard to the benefit of the occupants and the environment. In fact, it is only 11.2% more expensive to construct such a building, while its energy performance reduces the amount of CO2 emissions. The aim is to widely implement this type of buildings, which can have a significant effect on environmental, economical and social development related issues.

Oligofructose protects against arsenic-induced liver injury in a model of environment/obesity interaction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Massey, Veronica L.; Stocke, Kendall S.; Schmidt, Robin H.

Arsenic (As) tops the ATSDR list of hazardous environmental chemicals and is known to cause liver injury. Although the concentrations of As found in the US water supply are generally too low to directly damage the liver, subhepatotoxic doses of As sensitize the liver to experimental NAFLD. It is now suspected that GI microbiome dysbiosis plays an important role in development of NALFD. Importantly, arsenic has also been shown to alter the microbiome. The purpose of the current study was to test the hypothesis that the prebiotic oligofructose (OFC) protects against enhanced liver injury caused by As in experimental NAFLD.more » Male C57Bl6/J mice were fed low fat diet (LFD), high fat diet (HFD), or HFD containing oligofructose (OFC) during concomitant exposure to either tap water or As-containing water (4.9 ppm as sodium arsenite) for 10 weeks. HFD significantly increased body mass and caused fatty liver injury, as characterized by an increased liver weight-to-body weight ratio, histologic changes and transaminases. As observed previously, As enhanced HFD-induced liver damage, which was characterized by enhanced inflammation. OFC supplementation protected against the enhanced liver damage caused by As in the presence of HFD. Interestingly, arsenic, HFD and OFC all caused unique changes to the gut flora. These data support previous findings that low concentrations of As enhance liver damage caused by high fat diet. Furthermore, these results indicate that these effects of arsenic may be mediated, at least in part, by GI tract dysbiosis and that prebiotic supplementation may confer significant protective effects. - Highlights: • Arsenic (As) enhances liver damage caused by a high-fat (HFD) diet in mice. • Oligofructose protects against As-enhanced liver damage caused by HFD. • As causes dysbiosis in the GI tract and exacerbates the dysbiosis caused by HFD. • OFC prevents the dysbiosis caused by HFD and As, increasing commensal bacteria.« less

Comparison of hair shaft damage after chemical treatment in Asian, White European, and African hair.

PubMed

Lee, Yoonhee; Kim, Youn-Duk; Pi, Long-Quan; Lee, Sung Yul; Hong, Hannah; Lee, Won-Soo

2014-09-01

Diverse causes of extrinsic damage to the hair shaft have been documented and can be roughly divided into physical and chemical causes. Chemical causes of hair damage include bleaching, hair dyeing, and perming. The goal of this study was to investigate differences in patterns of serial damage in Asian, White European (WE), and African hair after chemical stress imposed by straightening and coloring treatments. Hairs were divided into control and treatment groups (straightening, coloring, and a combination of straightening and coloring). At 24 hours after the final treatment, patterns of hair damage were evaluated using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and lipid TEM. Grades of hair cuticle and cortex damage were evaluated by three dermatologists. In the TEM examination, the cuticle of Asian hair proved to be resistant to damage caused by straightening treatments, whereas the WE hair cuticle and cortex were relatively susceptible to stress imposed by coloring treatments. In the combination treatment of straightening and coloring, African hair emerged as the most resistant to stress. In the lipid TEM examination, no notable differences in cell membrane complex damage were observed among the three groups of hairs. The present study suggests that WE hair is relatively susceptible and African hair is more resistant to chemical stresses, such as those imposed by straightening and coloring. © 2013 The International Society of Dermatology.

Greenhouse gas emissions and reactive nitrogen releases during the life-cycles of staple food production in China and their mitigation potential.

PubMed

Xia, Longlong; Ti, Chaopu; Li, Bolun; Xia, Yongqiu; Yan, Xiaoyuan

2016-06-15

Life-cycle analysis of staple food (rice, flour and corn-based fodder) production and assessments of the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) and reactive nitrogen (Nr) releases, from environmental and economic perspectives, help to develop effective mitigation options. However, such evaluations have rarely been executed in China. We evaluated the GHG and Nr releases per kilogram of staple food production (carbon and Nr footprints) and per unit of net economic benefit (CO2-NEB and Nr-NEB), and explored their mitigation potential. Carbon footprints of food production in China were obviously higher than those in some developed countries. There was a high spatial variation in the footprints, primarily attributable to differences in synthetic N use (or CH4 emissions) per unit of food production. Provincial carbon footprints had a significant linear relationship with Nr footprints, attributed to large contribution of N fertilizer use to both GHG and Nr releases. Synthetic N fertilizer applications and CH4 emissions dominated the carbon footprints, while NH3 volatilization and N leaching were the main contributors to the Nr footprints. About 564 (95% uncertainty range: 404-701) TgCO2eqGHG and 10 (7.4-12.4) Tg Nr-N were released every year during 2001-2010 from staple food production. This caused the total damage costs of 325 (70-555) billion ¥, equivalent to nearly 1.44% of the Gross Domestic Product of China. Moreover, the combined damage costs and economic input costs, accounted for 66%-80% of the gross economic benefit generated from food production. A reduction of 92.7TgCO2eqyr(-1) and 2.2TgNr-Nyr(-1) could be achieved by reducing synthetic N inputs by 20%, increasing grain yields by 5% and implementing off-season application of straw and mid-season drainage practices for rice cultivation. In order to realize these scenarios, an ecological compensation scheme should be established to incentivize farmers to gradually adopt knowledge-based managements. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

7 CFR 51.882 - U.S. Fancy Table.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... Grades § 51.882 U.S. Fancy Table. “U.S. Fancy Table” consists of bunches of well developed grapes of one...) Berries not damaged by: (1) Any other cause. (g) Bunches not damaged by: (1) Shot berries; (2) Dried...) Stems not damaged by: (1) Freezing; (2) Any other cause. (i) Size: (1) For berries: Exclusive of shot...

7 CFR 51.882 - U.S. Fancy Table.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... Grades § 51.882 U.S. Fancy Table. “U.S. Fancy Table” consists of bunches of well developed grapes of one...) Berries not damaged by: (1) Any other cause. (g) Bunches not damaged by: (1) Shot berries; (2) Dried...) Stems not damaged by: (1) Freezing; (2) Any other cause. (i) Size: (1) For berries: Exclusive of shot...

Economic games quantify diminished sense of guilt in patients with damage to the prefrontal cortex

PubMed Central

Krajbich, Ian; Adolphs, Ralph; Tranel, Daniel; Denburg, Natalie L.; Camerer, Colin F.

2009-01-01

Damage to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) impairs concern for other people, as reflected in the dysfunctional real-life social behavior of patients with such damage, as well as their abnormal performances on tasks ranging from moral judgment to economic games. Despite these convergent data, we lack a formal model of how, and to what degree, VMPFC lesions affect an individual’s social decision-making. Here we provide a quantification of these effects using a formal economic model of choice that incorporates terms for the disutility of unequal payoffs, with parameters that index behaviors normally evoked by guilt and envy. Six patients with focal VMPFC lesions participated in a battery of economic games that measured concern about payoffs to themselves and to others: dictator, ultimatum, and trust games. We analyzed each task individually, but also derived estimates of the guilt and envy parameters from aggregate behavior across all of the tasks. Compared to control subjects, the patients donated significantly less and were less trustworthy, and overall our model found a significant insensitivity to guilt. Despite these abnormalities, the patients had normal expectations about what other people would do, and they also did not simply generate behavior that was more noisy. Instead, the findings argue for a specific insensitivity to guilt, an abnormality that we suggest characterizes a key contribution made by the VMPFC to social behavior. PMID:19228971