Meta-analysis of endoscopy and surgery versus surgery alone for common bile duct stones with the gallbladder in situ.

PubMed

Clayton, E S J; Connor, S; Alexakis, N; Leandros, E

2006-10-01

There is no clear consensus on the better therapeutic approach (endoscopic versus surgical) to choledocholithiasis. This study is a meta-analysis of the available evidence. A search of the Medline and ISI databases identified 12 studies that met the inclusion criteria for data extraction. The analysis was performed using a random-effects model. The outcome was calculated as an odds ratio (OR) or relative risk (RR) with 95 per cent confidence intervals (c.i.). Outcomes of 1357 patients were studied. There was no significant difference in successful duct clearance (OR 0.85 (95 per cent c.i. 0.64 to 1.12); P = 0.250), mortality (RR 1.79 (95 per cent c.i. 0.66 to 4.83); P = 0.250), total morbidity (RR 0.89 (95 per cent 0.71 c.i. to 1.13); P = 0.350), major morbidity (RR 1.34 (95 per cent c.i. 0.92 to 1.97); P = 0.130) or need for additional procedures (OR 1.37 (95 per cent c.i. 0.82 to 2.29); P = 0.230) between the endoscopic and surgical groups. There was also no significant difference between the endoscopic and laparoscopic surgery groups. Both approaches have similar outcomes, and treatment should be determined by local resources and expertise.

Epidemiology of canine parvovirus and coronavirus in dogs presented with severe diarrhoea to PDSA PetAid hospitals.

PubMed

Godsall, S A; Clegg, S R; Stavisky, J H; Radford, A D; Pinchbeck, G

2010-08-07

Canine parvovirus (CPV) and canine enteric coronavirus (CECoV) are often cited as causes of diarrhoea in dogs. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of CPV and CECoV in dogs presenting with severe diarrhoea to PDSA PetAid hospitals throughout the UK. A total of 355 samples were collected from the PDSA between 2006 and 2008. All samples were tested for CPV using a long range PCR and for CECoV using RT-PCR. The prevalence of CPV was 58 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval [CI] 52 to 63 per cent), with some evidence for regional variation. The prevalence of CECoV was 7.9 per cent (95 per cent CI 5.1 to 10.7 per cent). Analysis showed that animals with no history of vaccination were more likely to be CPV positive, with greatest effect in younger animals. CPV-positive animals were more likely to present with depression/lethargy than CPV-negative cases. The volume of diarrhoea and the presence of haemorrhage did not appear to be associated with the likelihood of detecting CPV. This study shows that CPV is a common finding in dogs presenting to PDSA hospitals with severe diarrhoea, and that CECoV is a less common but still potentially important pathogen. It also confirms that young and unvaccinated animals appear to be more at risk of presenting with CPV.

Negative self-perception of smile associated with malocclusions among Brazilian adolescents.

PubMed

Moura, Cristiano; Cavalcanti, Alessandro Leite; Gusmão, Estela Santos; Soares, Renata de Souza Coelho; Moura, Fabiana Torres Cavalcante; Santillo, Patrícia Morgana Hordonho

2013-08-01

This study estimated the prevalence of negative self-perception of smile because of occlusion abnormalities and investigated their association according to standard clinical criteria. The sample consisted of 1290 randomly selected Brazilian adolescent boys and girls aged 12-16 years. The outcome of interest was dissatisfaction with smile, and data were collected using a standardized questionnaire. Occlusion characteristics were assessed using the dental aesthetic index (DAI). The other study variables were gender, age, and use of dental services. A chi-square test and Poisson multiple regression were used for statistical analysis. Of the 1290 students interviewed and examined, 539 (41.8 per cent) were dissatisfied with their smile; of these, 373 (69.2 per cent) assigned their dissatisfaction to the presence of an occlusal abnormality, and 166 (30.8 per cent) reported reasons other than occlusal abnormalities for their negative self-perception of their smile. In multivariate analysis, the following variables were associated with the outcome of interest: maxillary anterior irregularity [prevalence ratio (PR) = 1.40; 95 per cent confidence interval (CI) = 1.29-1.80], incisal spacing (PR = 1.37; 95 per cent CI = 1.19-1.57), vertical open bite (PR = 1.34; 95 per cent CI = 1.15-1.55), mandibular anterior irregularity (PR = 1.29; 95 per cent CI = 1.14-1.46), permanent anterior teeth missing (PR = 1.21; 95 per cent CI = 1.05-1.39), and incisal diastema (PR = 1.14; 95 per cent CI = 1.01-1.31). The negative self-perception of smile was statistically associated with severity of occlusal disorders according to the DAI scores, which suggests that self-perception should be used together with standard clinical criteria when decisions about orthodontic treatments are made in public health care systems.

Age, extent and carbon storage of the central Congo Basin peatland complex.

PubMed

Dargie, Greta C; Lewis, Simon L; Lawson, Ian T; Mitchard, Edward T A; Page, Susan E; Bocko, Yannick E; Ifo, Suspense A

2017-02-02

Peatlands are carbon-rich ecosystems that cover just three per cent of Earth's land surface, but store one-third of soil carbon. Peat soils are formed by the build-up of partially decomposed organic matter under waterlogged anoxic conditions. Most peat is found in cool climatic regions where unimpeded decomposition is slower, but deposits are also found under some tropical swamp forests. Here we present field measurements from one of the world's most extensive regions of swamp forest, the Cuvette Centrale depression in the central Congo Basin. We find extensive peat deposits beneath the swamp forest vegetation (peat defined as material with an organic matter content of at least 65 per cent to a depth of at least 0.3 metres). Radiocarbon dates indicate that peat began accumulating from about 10,600 years ago, coincident with the onset of more humid conditions in central Africa at the beginning of the Holocene. The peatlands occupy large interfluvial basins, and seem to be largely rain-fed and ombrotrophic-like (of low nutrient status) systems. Although the peat layer is relatively shallow (with a maximum depth of 5.9 metres and a median depth of 2.0 metres), by combining in situ and remotely sensed data, we estimate the area of peat to be approximately 145,500 square kilometres (95 per cent confidence interval of 131,900-156,400 square kilometres), making the Cuvette Centrale the most extensive peatland complex in the tropics. This area is more than five times the maximum possible area reported for the Congo Basin in a recent synthesis of pantropical peat extent. We estimate that the peatlands store approximately 30.6 petagrams (30.6 × 10 15  grams) of carbon belowground (95 per cent confidence interval of 6.3-46.8 petagrams of carbon)-a quantity that is similar to the above-ground carbon stocks of the tropical forests of the entire Congo Basin. Our result for the Cuvette Centrale increases the best estimate of global tropical peatland carbon stocks by 36 per cent, to 104.7 petagrams of carbon (minimum estimate of 69.6 petagrams of carbon; maximum estimate of 129.8 petagrams of carbon). This stored carbon is vulnerable to land-use change and any future reduction in precipitation.

Surgical delay is a critical determinant of survival in perforated peptic ulcer.

PubMed

Buck, D L; Vester-Andersen, M; Møller, M H

2013-07-01

Morbidity and mortality following perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) remain substantial. Surgical delay is a well established negative prognostic factor, but evidence derives from studies with a high risk of bias. The aim of the present nationwide cohort study was to evaluate the adjusted effect of hourly surgical delay on survival after PPU. This was a cohort study including all Danish patients treated surgically for PPU between 1 February 2003 and 31 August 2009. Medically treated patients and those with a malignant ulcer were excluded. The associations between surgical delay and 30-day survival are presented as crude and adjusted relative risks (RRs) with 95 per cent confidence intervals (c.i.). A total of 2668 patients were included. Their median age was 70·9 (range 16·2-104·2) years and 55·4 per cent (1478 of 2668) were female. Some 67·5 per cent of the patients (1800 of 2668) had at least one of six co-morbid diseases and 45·6 per cent had an American Society of Anesthesiologists fitness grade of III or more. A total of 708 patients (26·5 per cent) died within 30 days of surgery. Every hour of delay from admission to surgery was associated with an adjusted 2·4 per cent decreased probability of survival compared with the previous hour (adjusted RR 1·024, 95 per cent c.i. 1·011 to 1·037). Limiting surgical delay in patients with PPU seems of paramount importance. © 2013 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Maximal compression of the redshift-space galaxy power spectrum and bispectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gualdi, Davide; Manera, Marc; Joachimi, Benjamin; Lahav, Ofer

2018-05-01

We explore two methods of compressing the redshift-space galaxy power spectrum and bispectrum with respect to a chosen set of cosmological parameters. Both methods involve reducing the dimension of the original data vector (e.g. 1000 elements) to the number of cosmological parameters considered (e.g. seven ) using the Karhunen-Loève algorithm. In the first case, we run MCMC sampling on the compressed data vector in order to recover the 1D and 2D posterior distributions. The second option, approximately 2000 times faster, works by orthogonalizing the parameter space through diagonalization of the Fisher information matrix before the compression, obtaining the posterior distributions without the need of MCMC sampling. Using these methods for future spectroscopic redshift surveys like DESI, Euclid, and PFS would drastically reduce the number of simulations needed to compute accurate covariance matrices with minimal loss of constraining power. We consider a redshift bin of a DESI-like experiment. Using the power spectrum combined with the bispectrum as a data vector, both compression methods on average recover the 68 {per cent} credible regions to within 0.7 {per cent} and 2 {per cent} of those resulting from standard MCMC sampling, respectively. These confidence intervals are also smaller than the ones obtained using only the power spectrum by 81 per cent, 80 per cent, and 82 per cent respectively, for the bias parameter b1, the growth rate f, and the scalar amplitude parameter As.

Association of matrix metalloproteinase-7 (-181A/G) promoter polymorphism in chronic pancreatitis.

PubMed

Manjari, K Sri; Jyothy, A; Kumar, P Shravan; Prabhakar, B; Nallari, Pratibha; Venkateshwari, A

2014-11-01

Chronic pancreatitis is progressive and irreversible destruction of the pancreas. Matrix metalloproteinase-7 (MMP-7) is a secreted matrilysin, which contributes to angiogenesis and breakdown of basement membranes of pancreatic tissues. The present study was aimed to investigate the association of MMP-7 -181A/G (rs11568818) gene promoter polymorphism in patients with chronic pancreatitis. A total of 100 chronic pancreatitis patients and 150 unrelated healthy individuals were included in this case control study. The genotyping of the MMP-7 gene (- 181 A/G) (rs11568818) was carried out based on PCR-RFLP. The serum levels of MMP-7 were determined by ELISA. Association between genotypes and chronic pancreatitis was examined by odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI). The frequencies of the genotypes in promoter of MMP-7 were AA 49 per cent, AG 25 per cent and GG 26 per cent in chronic pancreatitis patients and AA 53 per cent, AG 38 per cent and GG 9 per cent in control subjects. Frequency of MMP-7 -181GG genotype and - 181G allele was significantly associated with chronic pancreatitis compared to healthy subjects [OR = 1.58 (95% CI: 1.06 -2.36), p =0.019]. There was no significant difference in the serum MMP-7 levels in the patients compared to control subjects. The present study revealed a significant association of MMP-7 -181A/G (rs11568818) GG genotype with chronic pancreatitis patients, indicating its possible association with the disease.

Breastfeeding at 6 weeks and predictive factors.

PubMed

Chye, J K; Zain, Z; Lim, W L; Lim, C T

1997-10-01

Despite the numerous changes made in accordance with the Baby Friendly Hospital Initiative at the University Hospital, Kuala Lumpur, the low rates of breastfeeding have persisted. This study aims to examine the current trend in infant feeding, and the influences of some perinatal and sociodemographic factors on breastfeeding. Five-hundred mothers with singleton pregnancies and healthy infants were interviewed at 6 weeks post-partum. Only 124 (25 per cent) mothers were practising exclusive breastfeeding (EBF), and 132 (26 per cent) mothers were using exclusive infant formula feeding (EIF). On logistic regression analyses, mothers who followed EBF were more likely to have had antenatal plans to breastfeed (Odds ratio 2.44, 95 per cent confidence interval 1.75-3.45), not in paid employment post-natally (OR 1.76, 95 per cent CI 1.31-2.36), of older age group (> 27 years) (OR 1.48, 95 per cent CI 1.13-1.93), had female infants (OR 1.38, 95 per cent CI 1.05-1.80) and of Indian ethnicity (compared to Chinese) (OR 3.87, 95 per cent CI 2.16-6.89). Breastfeeding difficulties were associated with decreased odds of EBF (OR 0.21, 95 per cent CI 0.13-0.34). Parental education, fathers' ages and incomes, primigravida status, Caesarean section, present of episiotomy, late first breastfeed, phototherapy, and length of hospital stay were not significant predictors of failure of EBF. In comparison, predictive factors for increased use of EIF were mothers who have had breastfeeding difficulties, < or = 9 years of schooling, and of Chinese descent. In conclusions, the overall rate of EBF by 6 weeks of age in infants born in this urban hospital had remained poor. The adverse factors for EBF identified in this study warrant further in-depth studies to determine effective ways of improving EBF rates.

Tongue-lip adhesion and tongue repositioning for obstructive sleep apnoea in Pierre Robin sequence: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Camacho, M; Noller, M W; Zaghi, S; Reckley, L K; Fernandez-Salvador, C; Ho, E; Dunn, B; Chan, D K

2017-05-01

To search for studies on tongue-lip adhesion and tongue repositioning used as isolated treatments for obstructive sleep apnoea in children with Pierre Robin sequence. A systematic literature search of PubMed/Medline and three additional databases, from inception through to 8 July 2016, was performed by two authors. Seven studies with 90 patients (59 tongue-lip adhesion and 31 tongue repositioning patients) met the inclusion criteria. Tongue-lip adhesion reduced the mean (± standard deviation) apnoea/hypopnoea index from 30.8 ± 22.3 to 15.4 ± 18.9 events per hour (50 per cent reduction). The apnoea/hypopnoea index mean difference for tongue-lip adhesion was -15.28 events per hour (95 per cent confidence interval = -30.70 to 0.15; p = 0.05). Tongue-lip adhesion improved the lowest oxygen saturation from 75.8 ± 6.8 to 84.4 ± 7.3 per cent. Tongue repositioning reduced the apnoea/hypopnoea index from 46.5 to 17.4 events per hour (62.6 per cent reduction). Tongue repositioning improved the mean oxygen saturation from 90.8 ± 1.2 to 95.0 ± 0.5 per cent. Tongue-lip adhesion and tongue repositioning can improve apnoea/hypopnoea index and oxygenation parameters in children with Pierre Robin sequence and obstructive sleep apnoea.

Coverage of childhood vaccination among children aged 12-23 months, Tamil Nadu, 2015, India

PubMed Central

Murhekar, Manoj V.; Kamaraj, P.; Kanagasabai, K.; Elavarasu, G.; Rajasekar, T. Daniel; Boopathi, K.; Mehendale, Sanjay

2017-01-01

Background & objectives: District-Level Household Survey-4 (DLHS-4) indicated that during 2012-2013, only 56 per cent of children aged 12-23 months in Tamil Nadu were fully vaccinated, which were lesser than those reported in earlier national surveys. We, therefore, conducted cluster surveys to estimate coverage of childhood vaccination in the State, and also to identify the factors associated with low coverage. Methods: Cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 15 strata [municipal corporation non-slum (n=1), municipal corporation slum (n=1), hilly (n=1), rural (n=6) and urban (n=6)]. From each stratum, 30 clusters were selected using probability proportional to the population size linear systematic sampling; seven children aged 12-23 months were selected from each cluster and their mothers/care-takers were interviewed to collect information about vaccination status of the child. A child was considered fully vaccinated if he/she received bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), three doses of pentavalent, three doses of oral polio vaccine and one dose of measles vaccine, and appropriately vaccinated if all vaccine doses were given at right age and with right interval. Further, coverage of fully vaccinated children (FVC) as per vaccination cards or mothers’ recall, validated coverage of FVC (V-FVC) among those having cards, and coverage of appropriately vaccinated children (AVC) were estimated using survey data analysis module with appropriate sampling weights. Results: A total of 3150 children were surveyed, of them 2528 (80.3%) had vaccination card. The weighted coverage of FVC, V-FVC and AVC in the State was 79.9 per cent [95% confidence interval (CI): 78.2-81.5], 78.8 per cent (95% CI: 76.9-80.5) and 69.7 per cent (95% CI: 67.7-71.7), respectively. The coverage of individual vaccine ranged between 84 per cent (measles) and 99.8 per cent (BCG). About 12 per cent V-FVC were not vaccinated as per the vaccination schedule. Interpretation & conclusions: The coverage of FVC in Tamil Nadu was high, with about 80 per cent children completing primary vaccination. Efforts to increase vaccination coverage in the State need to focus on educating vaccinators about the need to adhere to the national vaccination schedule and strengthening supervision to ensure that children are vaccinated appropriately. PMID:28749402

Coverage of childhood vaccination among children aged 12-23 months, Tamil Nadu, 2015, India.

PubMed

Murhekar, Manoj V; Kamaraj, P; Kanagasabai, K; Elavarasu, G; Rajasekar, T Daniel; Boopathi, K; Mehendale, Sanjay

2017-03-01

District-Level Household Survey-4 (DLHS-4) indicated that during 2012-2013, only 56 per cent of children aged 12-23 months in Tamil Nadu were fully vaccinated, which were lesser than those reported in earlier national surveys. We, therefore, conducted cluster surveys to estimate coverage of childhood vaccination in the State, and also to identify the factors associated with low coverage. Cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 15 strata [municipal corporation non-slum (n=1), municipal corporation slum (n=1), hilly (n=1), rural (n=6) and urban (n=6)]. From each stratum, 30 clusters were selected using probability proportional to the population size linear systematic sampling; seven children aged 12-23 months were selected from each cluster and their mothers/care-takers were interviewed to collect information about vaccination status of the child. A child was considered fully vaccinated if he/she received bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), three doses of pentavalent, three doses of oral polio vaccine and one dose of measles vaccine, and appropriately vaccinated if all vaccine doses were given at right age and with right interval. Further, coverage of fully vaccinated children (FVC) as per vaccination cards or mothers' recall, validated coverage of FVC (V-FVC) among those having cards, and coverage of appropriately vaccinated children (AVC) were estimated using survey data analysis module with appropriate sampling weights. A total of 3150 children were surveyed, of them 2528 (80.3%) had vaccination card. The weighted coverage of FVC, V-FVC and AVC in the State was 79.9 per cent [95% confidence interval (CI): 78.2-81.5], 78.8 per cent (95% CI: 76.9-80.5) and 69.7 per cent (95% CI: 67.7-71.7), respectively. The coverage of individual vaccine ranged between 84 per cent (measles) and 99.8 per cent (BCG). About 12 per cent V-FVC were not vaccinated as per the vaccination schedule. The coverage of FVC in Tamil Nadu was high, with about 80 per cent children completing primary vaccination. Efforts to increase vaccination coverage in the State need to focus on educating vaccinators about the need to adhere to the national vaccination schedule and strengthening supervision to ensure that children are vaccinated appropriately.

Minimal geological methane emissions during the Younger Dryas-Preboreal abrupt warming event.

PubMed

Petrenko, Vasilii V; Smith, Andrew M; Schaefer, Hinrich; Riedel, Katja; Brook, Edward; Baggenstos, Daniel; Harth, Christina; Hua, Quan; Buizert, Christo; Schilt, Adrian; Fain, Xavier; Mitchell, Logan; Bauska, Thomas; Orsi, Anais; Weiss, Ray F; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P

2017-08-23

Methane (CH 4 ) is a powerful greenhouse gas and plays a key part in global atmospheric chemistry. Natural geological emissions (fossil methane vented naturally from marine and terrestrial seeps and mud volcanoes) are thought to contribute around 52 teragrams of methane per year to the global methane source, about 10 per cent of the total, but both bottom-up methods (measuring emissions) and top-down approaches (measuring atmospheric mole fractions and isotopes) for constraining these geological emissions have been associated with large uncertainties. Here we use ice core measurements to quantify the absolute amount of radiocarbon-containing methane ( 14 CH 4 ) in the past atmosphere and show that geological methane emissions were no higher than 15.4 teragrams per year (95 per cent confidence), averaged over the abrupt warming event that occurred between the Younger Dryas and Preboreal intervals, approximately 11,600 years ago. Assuming that past geological methane emissions were no lower than today, our results indicate that current estimates of today's natural geological methane emissions (about 52 teragrams per year) are too high and, by extension, that current estimates of anthropogenic fossil methane emissions are too low. Our results also improve on and confirm earlier findings that the rapid increase of about 50 per cent in mole fraction of atmospheric methane at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal event was driven by contemporaneous methane from sources such as wetlands; our findings constrain the contribution from old carbon reservoirs (marine methane hydrates, permafrost and methane trapped under ice) to 19 per cent or less (95 per cent confidence). To the extent that the characteristics of the most recent deglaciation and the Younger Dryas-Preboreal warming are comparable to those of the current anthropogenic warming, our measurements suggest that large future atmospheric releases of methane from old carbon sources are unlikely to occur.

Minimal geological methane emissions during the Younger Dryas-Preboreal abrupt warming event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrenko, Vasilii V.; Smith, Andrew M.; Schaefer, Hinrich; Riedel, Katja; Brook, Edward; Baggenstos, Daniel; Harth, Christina; Hua, Quan; Buizert, Christo; Schilt, Adrian; Fain, Xavier; Mitchell, Logan; Bauska, Thomas; Orsi, Anais; Weiss, Ray F.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

2017-08-01

Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas and plays a key part in global atmospheric chemistry. Natural geological emissions (fossil methane vented naturally from marine and terrestrial seeps and mud volcanoes) are thought to contribute around 52 teragrams of methane per year to the global methane source, about 10 per cent of the total, but both bottom-up methods (measuring emissions) and top-down approaches (measuring atmospheric mole fractions and isotopes) for constraining these geological emissions have been associated with large uncertainties. Here we use ice core measurements to quantify the absolute amount of radiocarbon-containing methane (14CH4) in the past atmosphere and show that geological methane emissions were no higher than 15.4 teragrams per year (95 per cent confidence), averaged over the abrupt warming event that occurred between the Younger Dryas and Preboreal intervals, approximately 11,600 years ago. Assuming that past geological methane emissions were no lower than today, our results indicate that current estimates of today’s natural geological methane emissions (about 52 teragrams per year) are too high and, by extension, that current estimates of anthropogenic fossil methane emissions are too low. Our results also improve on and confirm earlier findings that the rapid increase of about 50 per cent in mole fraction of atmospheric methane at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal event was driven by contemporaneous methane from sources such as wetlands; our findings constrain the contribution from old carbon reservoirs (marine methane hydrates, permafrost and methane trapped under ice) to 19 per cent or less (95 per cent confidence). To the extent that the characteristics of the most recent deglaciation and the Younger Dryas-Preboreal warming are comparable to those of the current anthropogenic warming, our measurements suggest that large future atmospheric releases of methane from old carbon sources are unlikely to occur.

Survey of the provision of prophylactic dental care for horses in Great Britain and Ireland between 1999 and 2002.

PubMed

Dixon, P M; Andrew, R; Brannon, H; Burgess, R; Gibson, A; Little, J C; Orange, B; Ross, L; Rudolph, T; Shaw, D J

2004-11-27

A survey of 854 horse owners, trainers and equestrian managers in 10 regions of Great Britain and Ireland showed that 83 per cent provided their horses with routine prophylactic dental care at fixed intervals, including 49 per cent at intervals of 12 months and 30 per cent at intervals of six months; a further 10 per cent provided it only when they felt it was required and 7 per cent did not provide it at all. Overall, 44 per cent of the owners had their horse's wolf teeth (first premolar) extracted routinely; when prophylactic dentistry was provided, it was carried out solely by equine dental technicians (EDTS) for 53 per cent of owners, solely by veterinarians for 35 per cent, by both EDTS or veterinarians for 10 per cent of owners and by other than veterinarians or EDTS for 1 per cent. There was confusion among some horse owners concerning the qualifications of the EDTS, because no recognised British qualification was available until towards the end of this survey in 2001. Several reasons were cited by owners for choosing between veterinarians and EDTS including their perceived qualifications, personal recommendations, costs, the availability of a wide range of dental equipment and sedation, and the time and effort devoted to the procedures.

Clinical effects of pre-adjusted edgewise orthodontic brackets: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Papageorgiou, Spyridon N; Konstantinidis, Ioannis; Papadopoulou, Konstantina; Jäger, Andreas; Bourauel, Christoph

2014-06-01

Fixed-appliance treatment is a major part of orthodontic treatment, but clinical evidence remains scarce. Objective of this systematic review was to investigate how the therapeutic effects and side-effects of brackets used during the fixed-appliance orthodontic treatment are affected by their characteristics. SEARCH METHODS AND SELECTION CRITERIA: We searched MEDLINE and 18 other databases through April 2012 without restrictions for randomized controlled trials and quasi-randomized controlled trials investigating any bracket characteristic. After duplicate selection and extraction procedures, risk of bias was assessed also in duplicate according to Cochrane guidelines and quality of evidence according to the Grades of Recommendation. Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach. Random-effects meta-analyses, subgroup analyses, and sensitivity analyses were performed with the corresponding 95 per cent confidence intervals (CI) and 95 per cent prediction intervals (PI). We included 25 trials on 1321 patients, with most comparing self-ligated (SL) and conventional brackets. Based on the meta-analyses, the duration of orthodontic treatment was on average 2.01 months longer among patients with SL brackets (95 per cent CI: 0.45 to 3.57). The 95 per cent PIs for a future trial indicated that the difference could be considerable (-1.46 to 5.47 months). Treatment characteristics, outcomes, and side-effects were clinically similar between SL and conventional brackets. For most bracket characteristics, evidence is insufficient. Some meta-analyses included trials with high risk of bias, but sensitivity analyses indicated robustness. Based on existing evidence, no clinical recommendation can be made regarding the bracket material or different ligation modules. For SL brackets, no conclusive benefits could be proven, while their use was associated with longer treatment durations.

[The use of triptan in ambulatory medicine in Midi-Pyrénées Region: clinical and pharmacological contra-indications and drug abuse].

PubMed

Roussel, Henri; Lo Re, Geneviève; Honorat, Christian; Alonso, Michèle; Sciortino, Vincent

2006-01-01

Evaluate triptan prescriptions in ambulatory medicine. Collection of medical data from 301 patients treated with triptans reimbursed by the French National Health Fund in the region of Midi-Pyrenees. Ninety-five per cent of selected patients suffered from migraine condition according to the International Headache Society diagnosis criteria [Confidence interval (CI) 95%: 93-98]. Co-morbidity factors contra-indicating triptan therapy were present in 6% of patients (CI 95%: 3-9). 2% of patients were prescribed other medicinal products contra-indicated with their triptan therapy (CI 95%: 0-4). Twenty-six per cent of patients were taking triptan medicines more than 8 times per month over a period of three months (CI 95%: 21-31) and 8% were taking this treatment more than 12 times per month (CI 95%: 5-1 I). Eleven per cent kept written information of their migraine crises (CI 95%: 7-15). Thirty-nine per cent benefited from dedicated prophylactic treatments (CI 95%: 33-45). In a context of sustained increase in prescriptions of migraine treatments, it appears necessary to remain cautious about clinical and pharmacological contra-indications. Prevention of abuse of medicines is based on a better use of crises agendas and introduction of prophylactic therapies.

Influence of body mass index on mortality after surgery for perforated peptic ulcer.

PubMed

Buck, D L; Møller, M H

2014-07-01

Body mass index (BMI) is a strong predictor of mortality in the general population. In spite of the medical hazards of obesity, a protective effect on mortality has been suggested in surgical patients: the obesity paradox. The aim of the present nationwide cohort study was to examine the association between BMI and mortality in patients treated surgically for perforated peptic ulcer (PPU). This was a national prospective cohort study of all Danish patients treated surgically for PPU between 1 February 2003 and 31 August 2009, for whom BMI was registered. Non-surgically treated patients and those with malignant ulcers were excluded. The primary outcome measure was 90-day mortality. The association between BMI and mortality was calculated as crude and adjusted relative risks (RRs) with 95 per cent confidence intervals (c.i.). Of 2668 patients who underwent surgical treatment for PPU, 1699 (63.7 per cent) had BMI recorded. Median age was 69.4 (range 17.6-100.9) years and 53.7 per cent of the patients were women. Some 1126 patients (66.3 per cent) had at least one of six co-morbid diseases; 728 (42.8 per cent) had an American Society of Anesthesiologists grade of III or more. A total of 471 patients (27.7 per cent) died within 90 days of surgery. Being underweight was associated with a more than twofold increased risk of death following surgery for PPU (adjusted RR 2.26, 95 per cent c.i. 1.37 to 3.71). No statistically significant association was found between obesity and mortality. Being underweight was associated with increased mortality in patients with PPU, whereas being overweight or obese was neither protective nor an adverse prognostic factor. © 2014 BJS Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Randomized clinical trial assessing the side-effects of glyceryl trinitrate and diltiazem hydrochloride in the treatment of chronic anal fissure.

PubMed

Kocher, H M; Steward, M; Leather, A J M; Cullen, P T

2002-04-01

Glyceryl trinitrate (GTN) ointment (0 small middle dot2 per cent) has an efficacy of up to 68 per cent in healing chronic anal fissure, but with headache as a major side-effect. Diltiazem hydrochloride (DTZ) cream (2 per cent) is expected to have fewer side-effects. A prospective double-blind randomized two-centre trial requiring at least 26 patients in each group (alpha = 0.05, beta = 0.9) was instituted after approval of the local ethics committee, to compare the incidence of side-effects (primary endpoint) with 0.2 per cent GTN ointment and 2 per cent DTZ cream in the treatment of chronic anal fissure. Treatments were applied perianally, twice daily for 6-8 weeks. All patients gave written informed consent. Both groups were comparable in patient demographics and clinical characteristics. Twelve patients violated the protocol, withdrew or did not attend follow-up. There were more side-effects with GTN (21 of 29 patients) than with DTZ (13 of 31) (relative risk (RR) 1.84 (95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 1.11 to 3.04), P = 0.01). In particular, more headaches occurred with GTN (17 of 29 patients) than with DTZ (eight of 31) (RR 2.06 (95 per cent c.i. 1.18 to 3.59), P = 0.01). There were no significant differences in healing and symptomatic improvement rates between patients receiving GTN (25 of 29) and DTZ (24 of 31). DTZ cream caused substantially fewer headaches than GTN ointment. There was no significant difference in the healing or improvement of chronic anal fissure between the treatments. DTZ may be the preferred first-line treatment for chronic anal fissure.

Wife's level of education and husband's risk of primary cardiac arrest.

PubMed Central

Strogatz, D S; Siscovick, D S; Weiss, N S; Rennert, G

1988-01-01

Data from a case-control study were analyzed to examine wife's education and risk of primary cardiac arrest in the husband. Men whose wives had more than 12 years of education had 80 per cent the rate of men with less educated wives (odds ratio = 0.8, 95% confidence interval = 0.5, 1.3), after adjustment for risk factors. There was no evidence of a status incongruity effect. These data are inconsistent with reports of positive associations between wife's education and coronary heart disease. PMID:3177731

Breast reconstruction in the United Kingdom and Ireland.

PubMed

Callaghan, C J; Couto, E; Kerin, M J; Rainsbury, R M; George, W D; Purushotham, A D

2002-03-01

Although it is becoming more common, previous surveys have identified concerns regarding the safety of immediate reconstruction following mastectomy. The aims of this study were to define current practice of breast reconstruction in the UK and Ireland, and to identify the characteristics of surgeons who use immediate breast reconstruction. : A postal questionnaire survey of 498 consultant breast surgeons in the UK and Ireland was performed in January 2000. There were 376 responses (response rate 76 per cent). Eighty-eight per cent of surgeons 'always' or 'usually' discuss reconstruction with patients due to undergo mastectomy; clinicians with a heavy caseload were significantly more likely to discuss it (odds ratio (OR) 18.45 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.99 to 171.07)). The majority of respondents (57 per cent) preferred delayed to immediate breast reconstruction; 70 per cent believed that immediate reconstruction has disadvantages, most commonly that it interferes with adjuvant therapy (56 per cent). Older surgeons were significantly less likely to perform immediate reconstruction (OR 5.18 (2.21 to 12.11)), and were significantly more likely to believe that immediate breast reconstruction has disadvantages (OR 2.02 (1.01 to 4.05)). Surgeons from Ireland were less likely to discuss and perform breast reconstruction (OR 0.20 (0.10 to 0.43) and 0.27 (0.12 to 0.60) respectively), or to have access to a plastic surgeon (OR 0.22 (0.11 to 0.44)). : Significant variation exists in the delivery of breast reconstruction after mastectomy in the UK and Ireland. The age, workload and personal characteristics of the surgeon are important in determining reconstructive practice.

Cardiac rehabilitation after percutaneous coronary intervention: Results from a nationwide survey.

PubMed

Olsen, Siv Js; Schirmer, Henrik; Bønaa, Kaare H; Hanssen, Tove A

2018-03-01

The purpose of this study was to estimate the proportion of Norwegian coronary heart disease patients participating in cardiac rehabilitation programmes after percutaneous coronary intervention, and to determine predictors of cardiac rehabilitation participation. Participants were patients enrolled in the Norwegian Coronary Stent Trial. We assessed cardiac rehabilitation participation in 9013 of these patients who had undergone their first percutaneous coronary intervention during 2008-2011. Of these, 7068 patients (82%) completed a self-administered questionnaire on cardiac rehabilitation participation within three years after their percutaneous coronary intervention. Twenty-eight per cent of the participants reported engaging in cardiac rehabilitation. Participation rate differed among the four regional health authorities in Norway, varying from 20%-31%. Patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention for an acute coronary syndrome were more likely to participate in cardiac rehabilitation than patients with stable angina (odds ratio 3.2; 95% confidence interval 2.74-3.76). A multivariate statistical model revealed that men had a 28% lower probability ( p<0.001) of participating in cardiac rehabilitation, and the odds of attending cardiac rehabilitation decreased with increasing age ( p<0.001). Contributors to higher odds of cardiac rehabilitation participation were educational level >12 years (odds ratio 1.50; 95% confidence interval 1.32-1.71) and body mass index>25 (odds ratio 1.19; 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.36). Prior coronary artery bypass graft was associated with lower odds of cardiac rehabilitation participation (odds ratio 0.47; 95% confidence interval 0.32-0.70) Conclusion: The estimated cardiac rehabilitation participation rate among patients undergoing first-time percutaneous coronary intervention is low in Norway. The typical participant is young, overweight, well-educated, and had an acute coronary event. These results varied by geographical region.

Community Mothers Programme--seven year follow-up of a randomized controlled trial of non-professional intervention in parenting.

PubMed

Johnson, Z; Molloy, B; Scallan, E; Fitzpatrick, P; Rooney, B; Keegan, T; Byrne, P

2000-09-01

The Community Mothers Programme aims at using experienced volunteer mothers in disadvantaged areas to give support to first-time parents in rearing their children up to 1 year of age. The programme was evaluated by randomized controlled trial in 1990. Seven years later, trial participants were interviewed about child health, nutrition, cognitive stimulation, parenting skills, and maternal self-esteem. The aim of this study was to see whether the demonstrated benefits at 1 year of age of this programme could be sustained at age 8. One-third of the original group (38 intervention, 38 control), were contacted and interviewed. The risk for having an accident requiring a hospital visit was lower in the intervention group: relative risk (RR) 0.59, 95 per cent confidence interval (CI) 0.31-1.11. Intervention children were more likely to visit the library weekly: RR 1.58, 95 per cent CI 1.10-2.26. Intervention mothers were more likely to check homework every night: RR 1.23, 95 per cent CI 1.05-1.43 (p=0.006); and to disagree with the statement 'children should be smacked for persistently bad behaviour': RR 2.11, 95 per cent CI 1.10-4.06. They were more likely to disagree with the statement 'I do not have much to be proud of': RR 1.24, 95 per cent CI 1.04-1.40; and to make a positive statement about motherhood than controls: RR 1.53, 95 per cent CI 1.06-2.20. Subsequent children of intervention mothers were more likely to have completed Haemophilus influenzae b: RR 1.26, 95 per cent CI 1.06-1.51; and polio immunization: RR 1.19, 95 per cent CI 1.02-1.40. The Community Mothers programme had sustained beneficial effects on parenting skills and maternal self-esteem 7 years later with benefit extending to subsequent children.

Meta-analysis of aberrant lymphatic drainage in recurrent breast cancer.

PubMed

Ahmed, M; Baker, R; Rubio, I T

2016-11-01

Sentinel node biopsy (SNB) in recurrent breast cancer offers targeted axillary staging compared with axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) or no treatment. The evidence for lymphatic mapping in recurrent breast cancer is reviewed, focusing on aberrant drainage and its implications for patient management. A meta-analysis of studies evaluating lymphatic mapping in recurrent breast cancer was performed. Outcomes included sentinel node identification, aberrant lymphatic pathways and metastatic node rates in aberrant drainage and ipsilateral axilla. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95 per cent confidence intervals (c.i.) were estimated using fixed-effect analyses, or random-effects analyses in the event of statistically significant heterogeneity. Seven studies reported data on lymphatic mapping in 1053 patients with recurrent breast cancer. The intraoperative sentinel node identification rate was 59·6 (95 per cent c.i. 56·7 to 62·6) per cent, and significantly greater when the original axillary surgery was SNB compared with ALND (OR 2·97, 95 per cent c.i. 1·66 to 5·32). The rate of aberrant lymphatic drainage identification was 25·7 (23·0 to 28·3) per cent, and significantly greater when the original axillary surgery was ALND (OR 0·27, 0·19 to 0·38). The metastatic sentinel node rate was 10·4 (8·6 to 12·3) per cent, and a significantly greater metastatic nodal burden was identified in the ipsilateral axilla (OR 6·31, 1·03 to 38·79). Lymphatic mapping is feasible in recurrent breast cancer. It avoids ALND in over 50 per cent of patients who have undergone SNB, and allows the 4 per cent of patients with metastatically involved aberrant nodes to receive targeted surgical and adjuvant therapies. © 2016 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mother's body mass index as a predictor of infant's nutritional status in the post-emergency phase of a flood.

PubMed

Goudet, Sophie; Griffths, Paula; Bogin, Barry A

2011-10-01

Maternal nutritional status is a determinant of child health. This paper studies the association between a mother's body mass index (BMI) and her infant's nutritional status over a one year time frame after the 1998 flood crisis in Bangladesh. The paper uses secondary analysis of data collected from 757 households in seven rural areas of Bangladesh affected by the 1998 flood using multiple-stage probability sampling techniques (n = 143). Logistic regression models were employed to investigate the predictive impact of maternal BMI on infant's nutritional status after controlling for a range of child and maternal factors. An underweight mother was a significant factor with regard to the risk of infants suffering stunting (odds ratio (OR) = 4.45, 95 per cent confidence interval (CI) = 1.04-18.94) and being underweight (OR = 3.51, 95 per cent CI = 1.02-12.05) a year later, but not wasting (OR = 2.09, 95 per cent CI = 0.51-8.67). The findings suggest that there is a post-emergency link between maternal and infant nutritional health. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

Risk factors for infection with highly pathogenic influenza A virus (H5N1) in commercial chickens in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Biswas, P K; Christensen, J P; Ahmed, S S U; Barua, H; Das, A; Rahman, M H; Giasuddin, M; Hannan, A S M A; Habib, A M; Debnath, N C

2009-06-13

A matched case-control study was carried out to identify risk factors for highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus (subtype H5N1) infection in commercial chickens in Bangladesh. A total of 33 commercial farms diagnosed with H5N1 before September 9, 2007, were enrolled as cases, and 99 geographically matched unaffected farms were enrolled as control farms. Farm data were collected using a pretested questionnaire, and analysed by matched-pair analysis and multivariate conditional logistic regression. Two factors independently and positively associated with H5N1 infection remained in the final model. They were 'farm accessible to feral and wild animals' (odds ratio [OR] 5.71, 95 per cent confidence interval [CI] 1.81 to 18.0, P=0.003) and 'footbath at entry to farm/shed' (OR 4.93, 95 per cent CI 1.61 to 15.1, P=0.005). The use of a designated vehicle for sending eggs to a vendor or market appeared to be a protective factor (OR 0.14, 95 per cent CI 0.02 to 0.88, P=0.036).

Web page quality: can we measure it and what do we find? A report of exploratory findings.

PubMed

Abbott, V P

2000-06-01

The aim of this study was to report exploratory findings from an attempt to quantify the quality of a sample of World Wide Web (WWW) pages relating to MMR vaccine that a typical user might locate. Forty pages obtained from a search of the WWW using two search engines and the search expression 'mmr vaccine' were analysed using a standard proforma. The proforma looked at the information the pages contained in terms of three categories: content, authorship and aesthetics. The information from each category was then quantified into a summary statistic, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated using a 'gold standard' of quality derived from the published literature. Optimal cut-off points for each of the three sections were calculated that best discriminated 'good' from 'bad' pages. Pages were also assessed as to whether they were pro- or anti-vaccination. For this sample, the combined contents and authorship score, with a cut-off of five, was a good discriminator, having 88 per cent sensitivity and 92 per cent specificity. Aesthetics was not a good discriminator. In the sample, 32.5 per cent of pages were pro-vaccination; 42.5 per cent were anti-vaccination and 25 per cent were neutral. The relative risk of being of poor quality if anti-vaccination was 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.8, 6.1). The sample of Web pages did contain some quality information on MMR vaccine. It also contained a great deal of misleading, inaccurate data. The proforma, combined with a knowledge of the literature, may help to distinguish between the two.

One year study of bacterial and fungal nosocomial infections among patients in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) in Alexandria.

PubMed

El-Nawawy, Ahmed Ahmed; Abd El-Fattah, Mohamed Mohamed; Metwally, Hala Abd El-Raouf; Barakat, Shahira Salah El Din; Hassan, Ihab Abdel Rehim

2006-06-01

A 1-year prospective and observational study included all admissions (n=216) until 48 h after discharge to Alexandria PICU between first of May 2003 and end of April 2004. Cultures for bacteria and fungi and antibiotic sensitivity tests (19 antibiotic using Bauer-Kirby disc diffusion method) were obtained (blood, stool, urine and cerebrospinal fluid, if needed) and repeated on suspicion of NIs. All cannulae, endotracheal tube (ET) aspirates and tips, nasogastric tubes and different catheters were cultured. All PICU health care workers (HCWs) were subjected to throat and under-finger nails cultures as well as inanimate objects, both on bimonthly basis. The referral place (ward or emergency), PRISM III score, length of stay (LOS) and fate were recorded. Amongst those patients whose age ranged from 1 to 23 months, 23 per cent had NIs with infection rates of 40/1000 days. Significantly high rates of mortality, LOS and PRISM III score were encountered among patients with NIs (52 per cent vs 30 per cent; 9.4+/-4.8 vs 5.4+/-2.2 days; 14.4+/-7 vs 11.8+/-6 respectively). The descending order of frequency of NIs was blood stream infection (BSI) (47 per cent), urinary tract infection (UTI) (28 per cent), ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) (16 per cent) and meningitis (9 per cent). Gr-ve bacilli accounted for 76.7 per cent; Gr+ve cocci 13.3 per cent (with satisfactory sensitivity to cefepime, imipenem and meropenem) and Candida albicans 10 per cent of all NIs. The rate of NIs/1000 device days were: 18.7 per cent for BSI, 10.9 per cent for VAP and 25.5 per cent for UTI. Vulnerable age groups were >6 m for VAP and <6 m for meningitis. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified LOS, PRISM III score and referral from wards a predictors of NI acquisition (odd ratio and 95 per cent confidence interval: 1.537, 1.423-1.659; 1.073, 1.041-1.105 and 0.269, 0.178-0.406 respectively). Bimonthly cultures for HCWs isolated coagulase-ve Staphylococci, while inanimate objects isolated diphtheroids and Candida albicans. NIs rate was high (23 per cent) mainly due to severity of condition on admission as shown by high PRISM III score value, the high PRISM III score, LOS and referral from wards were predictors of acquisition of NIs and there is a high incidence of Candida albicans infection (10 per cent of NIs).

Qualitative Research in the CJA/RCV: An 18-Year Analysis (1995-2012).

PubMed

Humble, Áine M; Green, Maureen

2016-03-01

Some researchers have suggested that qualitative research is increasing in the gerontology field, but little systematic analysis has tested this assertion. Using the Canadian Journal on Aging/La Revue canadienne du vieillissement as a case study, we analysed articles reporting on original research from 1995 to 2012. One in four articles were qualitative, and results in three-year intervals show a clear increase in qualitative research findings during this 18-year time frame: (a) 1995-1997: 10 per cent; (b) 1998-2000: 19 per cent; (c) 2001-2003: 25 per cent; (d) 2004-2006: 25 per cent; (e) 2007-2009: 29 per cent; and (f) 2010-2012: 43 per cent. In all time intervals (with the exception of 2004-2006), French language articles were more likely to use a qualitative research design compared to English language articles. Topics, methodologies, and data collection strategies are also discussed.

Haematological and biochemical measurements in healthy, adult, free-ranging golden jackals (Canis aureus syriacus) held in captivity.

PubMed

Aroch, I; Shpigel, N Y; Avidar, Y; Yakobson, B; King, R; Shamir, M

2005-09-10

Blood from 31 healthy, free-ranging golden jackals held in captivity for seven days was collected while they were anaesthetised. Haematological and serum biochemical measurements were analysed and the 95 per cent confidence interval for each variable was compared with the reference value for domestic dogs. The measurements of their red blood cells were within the reference interval for dogs, but the jackals had higher white blood cell counts and eosinophil counts than dogs. The male jackals had a higher haematocrit, red blood cell count, mean corpuscular volume and mean corpuscular haemoglobin concentration, and a lower red blood cell distribution width than the female jackals. High activities of muscle enzymes were detected in many of the jackals, in several of which the activity of creatine kinase exceeded 5000 U/l; these were considered abnormal.

Kangaroo mother care: a randomized controlled trial on effectiveness of early kangaroo mother care for the low birthweight infants in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Worku, Bogale; Kassie, Assaye

2005-04-01

A randomized controlled trial was conducted over a 1-year period (November 2001-November 2002) in Addis Ababa to study the effectiveness of early Kangaroo mother care before stabilization of low birthweight infants as compared with the conventional method of care. There were 259 babies weighing less than 2000 g during the study period and a total of 123 (47.5 per cent) low birthweight infants were included in to the study. Sixty-two infants were enrolled as Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) and the remaining 61 were Conventional Method of Care (CMC) cases. The demographic and socioeconomic characteristics for both groups were comparable. The mean age at the time of enrollment was 10 and 9.8 h for KMC and CMC, respectively (p>0.05 with 95 per cent confidence interval). The mean birthweight was 1514.8 g (range 1000-1900 g) for KMC and 1471.8 g (range 930-1900 g) for CMC (p>0.05 with 95 per cent CI) and the mean gestational age was 32.42 and 31.59 weeks for KMC and CMC cases, respectively. Fifty-eight per cent of KMC and 52 per cent of CMC cases were on i.v. fluid. Twenty-one of 62 (34 per cent) of KMC and 23/61 (37 per cent) of CMC babies were on oxygen through nasopharyngeal catheter. The mean age at exit from the study was 4.6 days for KMC and 5.4 days for CMC. Ninety-one per cent and 88 per cent of babies in KMC and CMC were discharged from the study in the first 7 days of life, respectively. The study showed that 14/62 (22.5 per cent) of KMC vs. 24/63 (38 per cent) CMC babies died during the study (p<0.05 and CI of 95 per cent.) The majority of deaths occurred during the first 12 h of life. Survival for the preterm low birthweight infants was remarkably better for the early kangaroo mother care group than the babies in the conventional method of care in the first 12 h and there after. More than 95 per cent of mothers reported that they were happy to care for their low birthweight babies using the early Kangaroo mother method. It was recommended to study the feasibility and effectiveness of Kangaroo mother care at the community level.

Time-lapse changes of P- and S-wave velocities and shear wave splitting in the first year after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Japan: shallow subsurface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawazaki, Kaoru; Snieder, Roel

2013-04-01

We detect time-lapse changes in P- and S-wave velocities (hereafter, VP and VS, respectively) and shear wave splitting parameters associated with the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Japan, at depths between 0 and 504 m. We estimate not only medium parameters but also the 95 per cent confidence interval of the estimated velocity change by applying a new least squares inversion scheme to the deconvolution analysis of KiK-net vertical array records. Up to 6 per cent VS reduction is observed at more than half of the analysed KiK-net stations in northeastern Japan with over 95 per cent confidence in the first month after the main shock. There is a considerable correlation between the S-wave traveltime delay and the maximum horizontal dynamic strain (MDS) by the main shock motion when the strain exceeds 5 × 10- 4 on the ground surface. This correlation is not clearly observed for MDS at the borehole bottom. On the contrary, VP and shear wave splitting parameters do not show systematic changes after the Tohoku earthquake. These results indicate that the time-lapse change is concentrated near the ground surface, especially in loosely packed soil layers. We conclude that the behaviour of VP, VS and shear wave splitting parameters are explained by the generation of omnidirectional cracks near the ground surface and by the diffusion of water in the porous subsurface. Recovery of VS should be related to healing of the crack which is proportional to the logarithm of the lapse time after the main shock and/or to decompaction after shaking.

Comparative use of CO₂ laser, diode laser and monopolar electrocautery for resection of the soft palate in dogs with brachycephalic airway obstructive syndrome.

PubMed

Dunié-Mérigot, A; Bouvy, B; Poncet, C

2010-10-30

Clinical results, complications and the outcome of using either a carbon dioxide (CO₂) laser, diode laser or electrocautery (ELEC) for resection of the soft palate with an extended palatoplasty technique in brachycephalic dogs with upper airway obstructive syndrome were compared. Dogs were randomly allocated into three groups (n=20 in each group): ELEC, diode and CO₂ groups. The palatoplasty was made at the rostral aspect of the tonsils. A respiratory clinical score, ranging from 0 (normal) to 4 (cyanosis), was attributed to each dog before surgery and at 0 hours, 24 hours, two weeks and six months after surgery. A favourable outcome was defined as a one point or greater decrease in score 24 hours after surgery. The proportion of dogs with a favourable outcome was significantly higher in the CO₂ (n=15) and ELEC groups (n=15) in comparison with the diode group (n=7) (OR=5.6, 95 per cent confidence interval 1.4 to 21.9). Surgical time was significantly shorter (P<0.001; mean [sd] 510 [178] seconds), and bleeding was less common (P<0.001; 30 per cent of cases) in the CO₂ group. Complications were most frequent with the diode group (two cases of death and two cases of tracheostomy). The final outcome for all groups (n=57) was considered excellent in 79 per cent of cases and was considered good in 21 per cent.

Impact of surgeon volume and specialization on short-term outcomes in colorectal cancer surgery.

PubMed

Borowski, D W; Kelly, S B; Bradburn, D M; Wilson, R G; Gunn, A; Ratcliffe, A A

2007-07-01

Several studies have shown a relationship between surgeon volume and outcomes in colorectal cancer surgery. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of surgeon volume and specialization on primary tumour resection rate, restoration of bowel continuity following rectal cancer resection, anastomotic leakage and perioperative mortality. The Northern Region Colorectal Cancer Audit Group conducts a population-based audit of patients with colorectal cancer managed by surgeons. This study examined 8219 patients treated between 1998 and 2002. Outcomes were modelled using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Tumour resection was performed in 6949 (93.8 per cent) of 7411 patients. High-volume surgeons with an annual caseload of at least 18.5 (odds ratio (OR) 1.53 (95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 1.10 to 2.12); P = 0.012) and colorectal specialists (OR 1.42 (95 per cent c.i. 1.06 to 1.90); P = 0.018) were more likely to perform elective sphincter-saving rectal surgery. In elective surgery, the risk of perioperative death was lower for high-volume surgeons (OR 0.58 (95 per cent c.i. 0.44 to 0.76); P < 0.001), but this was not the case in emergency surgery. High-volume surgeons had lower perioperative mortality rates for elective surgery, and were more likely to use restorative rectal procedures. Copyright (c) 2007 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cryptococcosis in patients with diabetes mellitus II in mainland China: 1993-2015.

PubMed

Li, Yingfang; Fang, Wenjie; Jiang, Weiwei; Hagen, Ferry; Liu, Jia; Zhang, Lei; Hong, Nan; Zhu, Yu; Xu, Xiaoguang; Lei, Xia; Deng, Danqi; Xu, Jianping; Liao, Wanqing; Boekhout, Teun; Chen, Min; Pan, Weihua

2017-11-01

Diabetes mellitus II (DM II) is a newly defined independent factor contributing to the morbidity and mortality of cryptococcosis. This retrospective case analysis aims to explore the epidemiology, clinical profile and strain characteristics of cryptococcosis in Chinese DM II patients. This study included 30 cases of cryptococcosis with DM II occurring from 1993 to 2015 in mainland China. The hospital-based prevalence of cryptococcosis in DM II was 0.21%. The mean age of the patients was 56.1 years (95% confidence interval: 51.5, 60.6), and 93% of the patients were older than 40 years. Sixty-two per cent of the patients experienced untreated or poorly controlled blood glucose before infection. Multilocus sequence typing analysis categorised all cultured strains as Cryptococcus neoformans and sequence type 5. Sixty-nine per cent of pulmonary cryptococcosis patients experienced misdiagnoses and treatment delays. Sixty per cent of cryptococcal meningitis patients received substandard antifungal therapy. The overall death rate was 33%. Considering the large population size of DM II patients in China, improved attention should be paid to the high prevalence of cryptococcosis as revealed by us. We also emphasised the importance of blood glucose control for infection prevention, especially among the elderly. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Reporting quality of N-of-1 trials published between 1985 and 2013: a systematic review.

PubMed

Li, Jiang; Gao, Wei; Punja, Salima; Ma, Bin; Vohra, Sunita; Duan, Naihua; Gabler, Nicole; Yang, Kehu; Kravitz, Richard L

2016-08-01

To evaluate the quality of reporting of single-patient (N-of-1) trials published in the medical literature based on the CONSORT Extension for N-of-1 Trials (CENT) statement and to examine factors that influence reporting quality in these trials. Through a search of 10 electronic databases, we identified N-of-1 trials in clinical medicine published between January 1, 1985, and December 31, 2013. Two reviewers screened articles for eligibility and independently extracted data. Quality assessment was performed using the CENT statement. Discrepancies were resolved by consensus. We identified 112 eligible N-of-1 trials published in 87 journals and involving a total of 2,278 patients. Overall, kappa agreement between the two evaluators for compliance with CENT criteria was 0.80 (95% confidence interval: 0.79, 0.82). Trials assessed pharmacology and therapeutics (87%), behavior (11%), or diagnosis (2%). Although 87% of articles described the trial design (including the planned number of subjects and length of treatment period), the median percentage of specific CENT elements reported in the Methods was 41% (range, 16-87%), and the median percentage in the Results was 38% (range, 32-93%). First authors were predominantly from North America (46%), Europe (29%), and Australia (17%). Quality of reporting was higher in articles published in journals with relatively high-impact factors (P = 0.004). The quality of reporting of published N-of-1 trials is variable and in need of improvement. Because the CENT guidelines were not published until near the end of the period of this review, these results represent a baseline from which improvement may be expected in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Woodcock status report, 1960

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, C.S.

1960-01-01

Singing ground counts for 1960 from 40 routes west of the Appalachians and 166 routes east of this range were available for comparison with counts made on the same routes in 1959. While the measurements of change in the woodcock breeding index between years relate, properly speaking, only to these routes as selected by the cooperators, this is the best information we have on the breeding population of the area east of Wisconsin and north of Tennessee and South Carolina.* East of the Appalachians the sample data indicated a statistically significant decrease of 10 per cent, and it probably is safe to conclude that the true drop did not exceed 19 per cent. West of the Appalachians an average increase of 7 per cent was indicated, and 95 per cent confidence limits suggest- that if a decrease did occur on the sample routes, it probably was not more than 13 per cent. For both areas combined, a decrease of 2 per cent was recorded on the 206 routes sampled, with confidence limits of an increase of 9 per cent or a decrease of 12 per cent. There is no evidence of a disastrous population decrease in spite of the severe weather conditions of March 1960. *No comparative data were available from Indiana, Quebec, Rhode Island, Delaware or Virginia; and only one route in Minnesota and one in Wisconsin were covered both years.

Contribution of surgical specialization to improved colorectal cancer survival.

PubMed

Oliphant, R; Nicholson, G A; Horgan, P G; Molloy, R G; McMillan, D C; Morrison, D S

2013-09-01

Reorganization of colorectal cancer services has led to surgery being increasingly, but not exclusively, delivered by specialist surgeons. Outcomes from colorectal cancer surgery have improved, but the exact determinants remain unclear. This study explored the determinants of outcome after colorectal cancer surgery over time. Postoperative mortality (within 30 days of surgery) and 5-year relative survival rates for patients in the West of Scotland undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer between 1991 and 1994 were compared with rates for those having surgery between 2001 and 2004. The 1823 patients who had surgery in 2001-2004 were more likely to have had stage I or III tumours, and to have undergone surgery with curative intent than the 1715 patients operated on in 1991-1994. The proportion of patients presenting electively who received surgery by a specialist surgeon increased over time (from 14·9 to 72·8 per cent; P < 0·001). Postoperative mortality increased among patients treated by non-specialists over time (from 7·4 to 10·3 per cent; P = 0·026). Non-specialist surgery was associated with an increased risk of postoperative death (adjusted odds ratio 1·72, 95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 1·17 to 2·55; P = 0·006) compared with specialist surgery. The 5-year relative survival rate increased over time and was higher among those treated by specialist compared with non-specialist surgeons (62·1 versus 53·0 per cent; P < 0·001). Compared with the earlier period, the adjusted relative excess risk ratio for the later period was 0·69 (95 per cent c.i. 0·61 to 0·79; P < 0·001). Increased surgical specialization accounted for 18·9 per cent of the observed survival improvement. Increased surgical specialization contributed significantly to the observed improvement in longer-term survival following colorectal cancer surgery. © 2013 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Factors affecting high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in HIV-infected patients on nevirapine-based antiretroviral therapy

PubMed Central

Padmapriyadarsini, C.; Ramesh, K.; Sekar, L.; Ramachandran, Geetha; Reddy, Devaraj; Narendran, G.; Sekar, S.; Chandrasekar, C.; Anbarasu, D.; Wanke, Christine; Swaminathan, Soumya

2017-01-01

Background & objectives: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk with low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and high triglycerides is common in the general population in India. As nevirapine (NVP)-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) tends to increase HDL-C, gene polymorphisms associated with HDL-C metabolism in HIV-infected adults on stable NVP-based ART were studied. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted between January 2013 and July 2014 among adults receiving NVP-based ART for 12-15 months. Blood lipids were estimated and gene polymorphisms in apolipoprotein C3 (APOC3), cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) and lipoprotein lipase (LPL) genes were analyzed by real-time polymerase chain reaction. Framingham's 10-yr CVD risk score was estimated. Logistic regression was done to show factors related to low HDL-C levels. Results: Of the 300 patients included (mean age: 38.6±8.7 yr; mean CD4 count 449±210 cell/μl), total cholesterol (TC) >200 mg/dl was observed in 116 (39%) patients. Thirty nine per cent males and 47 per cent females had HDL-C levels below normal while 32 per cent males and 37 per cent females had TC/HDL ratio of 4.5 and 4.0, respectively. Body mass index [adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=1.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-2.84, P=0.04] and viral load (aOR=3.39, 95% CI: 1.52-7.52, P=0.003) were negatively associated with serum HDL-C levels. The 10-yr risk score of developing CVD was 11-20 per cent in 3 per cent patients. Allelic variants of APOC3 showed a trend towards low HDL-C. Interpretation & conclusions: High-risk lipid profiles for atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease were common among HIV-infected individuals, even after 12 months of NVP-based ART. Targeted interventions to address these factors should be recommended in the national ART programmes. PMID:28948955

Impact of deprivation on short- and long-term outcomes after colorectal cancer surgery.

PubMed

Bharathan, B; Welfare, M; Borowski, D W; Mills, S J; Steen, I N; Kelly, S B

2011-06-01

The aim of the study was to determine the association between short- and long-term outcomes and deprivation for patients undergoing operative treatment for colorectal cancer in the Northern Region of England. This was a retrospective analytical study based on the Northern Region Colorectal Cancer Audit Group database for the period 1998-2002. The Index of Multiple Deprivation 2004, an area-based measure, was recalibrated and used to quantify deprivation. Patients were ranked based on their postcode of residence and grouped into five categories. Of 8159 patients in total, 7352 (90·1 per cent) had surgery; 6953 (94·6 per cent) of the 7352 patients underwent tumour resection and 4935 (67·7 per cent) of 7294 had a margin-negative (R0) resection. Deprivation was not associated with age, sex, tumour site, stage or other tumour-related factors. Compared with the most affluent group, the most deprived patients had fewer elective operations (72·9 versus 76·4 per cent; P = 0·014), more adverse co-morbidity (P < 0·001) and fewer curative resections (65·5 versus 71·2 per cent; P < 0·001). In multivariable analysis, deprivation was not an independent predictor of postoperative death (odds ratio (OR) 0·72, 95 per cent confidence interval 0·48 to 1·06; P = 0·101) but it was a predictor of curative resection (OR 1·24, 1·01 to 1·52; P = 0·042), overall survival (HR 0·83, 0·73 to 0·95; P = 0·006) and relative survival (HR 0·74, 0·58 to 0·95; P = 0·023). Deprivation, both independently and by influencing other surgical predictors, impacts on short- and long-term outcomes of patients with colorectal cancer. Copyright © 2011 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Randomized multicentre trial comparing external and internal pancreatic stenting during pancreaticoduodenectomy.

PubMed

Jang, J-Y; Chang, Y R; Kim, S-W; Choi, S H; Park, S J; Lee, S E; Lim, C-S; Kang, M J; Lee, H; Heo, J S

2016-05-01

There is no consensus on the best method of preventing postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). This multicentre, parallel group, randomized equivalence trial investigated the effect of two ways of pancreatic stenting after PD on the rate of POPF. Patients undergoing elective PD or pylorus-preserving PD with duct-to-mucosa pancreaticojejunostomy were enrolled from four tertiary referral hospitals. Randomization was stratified according to surgeon with a 1 : 1 allocation ratio to avoid any related technical factors. The primary endpoint was clinically relevant POPF rate. Secondary endpoints were nutritional index, remnant pancreatic volume, long-term complications and quality of life 2 years after PD. A total of 328 patients were randomized to the external (164 patients) or internal (164) stent group between August 2010 and January 2014. The rates of clinically relevant POPF were 24·4 per cent in the external and 18·9 per cent in the internal stent group (risk difference 5·5 per cent). As the 90 per cent confidence interval (-2·0 to 13·0 per cent) did not fall within the predefined equivalence limits (-10 to 10 per cent), the clinically relevant POPF rates in the two groups were not equivalent. Similar results were observed for patients with soft pancreatic texture and high fistula risk score. Other postoperative outcomes were comparable between the two groups. Five stent-related complications occurred in the external stent group. Multivariable analysis revealed that soft pancreatic texture, non-pancreatic disease and high body mass index (23·3 kg/m 2 or above) predicted clinically relevant POPF. External stenting after PD was associated with a higher rate of clinically relevant POPF than internal stenting. Registration number: NCT01023594 (https://www.clinicaltrials.gov). © 2016 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Regional intensity attenuation models for France and the estimation of magnitude and location of historical earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bakun, W.H.; Scotti, O.

2006-01-01

Intensity assignments for 33 calibration earthquakes were used to develop intensity attenuation models for the Alps, Armorican, Provence, Pyrenees and Rhine regions of France. Intensity decreases with ?? most rapidly in the French Alps, Provence and Pyrenees regions, and least rapidly in the Armorican and Rhine regions. The comparable Armorican and Rhine region attenuation models are aggregated into a French stable continental region model and the comparable Provence and Pyrenees region models are aggregated into a Southern France model. We analyse MSK intensity assignments using the technique of Bakun & Wentworth, which provides an objective method for estimating epicentral location and intensity magnitude MI. MI for the 1356 October 18 earthquake in the French stable continental region is 6.6 for a location near Basle, Switzerland, and moment magnitude M is 5.9-7.2 at the 95 per cent (??2??) confidence level. MI for the 1909 June 11 Trevaresse (Lambesc) earthquake near Marseilles in the Southern France region is 5.5, and M is 4.9-6.0 at the 95 per cent confidence level. Bootstrap resampling techniques are used to calculate objective, reproducible 67 per cent and 95 per cent confidence regions for the locations of historical earthquakes. These confidence regions for location provide an attractive alternative to the macroseismic epicentre and qualitative location uncertainties used heretofore. ?? 2006 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2006 RAS.

Seroprevalence and factors associated with equine herpesvirus type 1 and 4 in Spanish Purebred horses in Spain.

PubMed

Cruz, F; Fores, P; Mughini-Gras, L; Ireland, J; Moreno, M A; Newton, J R

2016-04-16

Equine herpesvirus type 1 (EHV-1) and type 4 (EHV-4) have a worldwide distribution and cause respiratory disease, abortion, neonatal death and myeloencephalopathy in susceptible horses. Given the scarcity of serological EHV-1/EHV-4 data in Spain, the objective of this cross-sectional study was to estimate the seroprevalence of EHV-1/EHV-4 and to identify potential horse-level and stud farm-level factors associated with EHV-1/EHV-4 in the breeding Spanish Purebred (SP) horse population in central Spain. Serum samples from 334 SP unvaccinated horses, collected between September 2011 and November 2013 at 30 stud farms, were tested using a commercially available EHV-1/EHV-4 antibody ELISA and seroneutralisation as the World Organisation for Animal Health reference confirmation test. Data on factors putatively associated with seropositivity to EHV-1/EHV-4 were collected via a questionnaire and examined using logistic regression analysis. EHV-1/EHV-4 seroprevalence in the SP breeding population in central Spain, standardised for the sex distribution of the reference horse population, was 53.9 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval 44.0 per cent to 63.8 per cent). Increasing age, southern location of the stud farm, temperate climate during the summer, and a smaller surface area used for breeding activities in the farm were associated with increased odds for EHV-1/EHV-4 seropositivity, whereas EHV-1/EHV-4 vaccination of other resident horses and separation of breeding mares from youngsters were protective factors. British Veterinary Association.

Strategies to improve the outcome of emergency surgery for perforated peptic ulcer.

PubMed

Søreide, K; Thorsen, K; Søreide, J A

2014-01-01

Perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is a common surgical emergency that carries high mortality and morbidity rates. Globally, one-quarter of a million people die from peptic ulcer disease each year. Strategies to improve outcomes are needed. PubMed was searched for evidence related to the surgical treatment of patients with PPU. The clinical registries of trials were examined for other available or ongoing studies. Randomized clinical trials (RCTs), systematic reviews and meta-analyses were preferred. Deaths from peptic ulcer disease eclipse those of several other common emergencies. The reported incidence of PPU is 3.8-14 per 100,000 and the mortality rate is 10-25 per cent. The possibility of non-operative management has been assessed in one small RCT of 83 patients, with success in 29 (73 per cent) of 40, and only in patients aged less than 70 years. Adherence to a perioperative sepsis protocol decreased mortality in a cohort study, with a relative risk (RR) reduction of 0.63 (95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 0.41 to 0.97). Based on meta-analysis of three RCTs (315 patients), laparoscopic and open surgery for PPU are equivalent, but patient selection remains a challenge. Eradication of Helicobacter pylori after surgical repair of PPI reduces both the short-term (RR 2.97, 95 per cent c.i. 1.06 to 8.29) and 1-year (RR 1.49, 1.10 to 2.03) risk of ulcer recurrence. Mortality and morbidity from PPU can be reduced by adherence to perioperative strategies. © 2013 BJS Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Polymorphisms of the matrix metalloproteinase 9 gene and abdominal aortic aneurysm.

PubMed

Smallwood, L; Allcock, R; van Bockxmeer, F; Warrington, N; Palmer, L J; Iacopetta, B; Golledge, J; Norman, P E

2008-10-01

Increased matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) 9 activity has been implicated in the formation of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). The aim was to explore the association between potentially functional variants of the MMP-9 gene and AAA. The -1562C > T and -1811A > T variants of the MMP-9 gene were genotyped in 678 men with an AAA (at least 30 mm in diameter) and 659 control subjects (aortic diameter 19-22 mm) recruited from a population-based trial of screening for AAA. Levels of MMP-9 were measured in a random subset of 300 cases and 84 controls. The association between genetic variants (including haplotypes) and AAA was assessed by multivariable logistic regression. There was no association between the MMP-9-1562C > T (odds ratio (OR) 0.70 (95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 0.27 to 1.82)) or -1811A > T (OR 0.71 (95 per cent c.i. 0.28 to 1.85)) genotypes, or the most common haplotype (OR 0.81 (95 per cent c.i. 0.62 to 1.05)) and AAA. The serum MMP-9 concentration was higher in cases than controls, and in minor allele carriers in cases and controls, although the differences were not statistically significant. In this study, the genetic tendency to higher levels of circulating MMP-9 was not associated with AAA.

Efficacy of three formulations of diflubenzuron, an insect growth regulator, against Culex quinquefasciatus Say, the vector of Bancroftian filariasis in India

PubMed Central

Sadanandane, C.; Doss, P. S. Boopathi; Jambulingam, P.

2012-01-01

Background & objectives: Insect growth regulators (IGRs) offer alternatives to conventional chemical larvicides that pose problem of resistance and environmental safety. However, only a limited number of IGRs have been approved for use in mosquito control. In the present study, two new formulations of the IGR diflubenzuron, 2 per cent granular (GR) and 2 per cent tablet (DT) were tested for its efficacy against Culex quinquefasciatus, in comparison to its 25 per cent wettable powder (WP) formulation. Methods: The WP, GR and DT formulations were tested in cesspits, street drains and abandoned wells each at four dosages, 25, 50, 75 and 100 g ai/ha. Additionally, the DT formulation was tested at a higher dosage of 1 tablet/m2 (equal to 400 g ai/ha). Results: The WP and GR formulations yielded >80 per cent inhibition of adult emergence (IE) for 7-10 days in cesspits, 4-7 days in street drains and 7-21 days in abandoned wells at all dosages tested. The DT formulation was effective only at higher dosage 100 g ai/ha and or 1 tablet/m2 for 7-15 days at all habitats. Interpretation & conclusions: The trial showed that the dosage 25 g ai/ha of 25 per cent WP could be the field dosage for cesspits and wells, and 50 g ai/ha for drains, to be applied at weekly intervals. The dosages 25, 50 and 100 g ai/ha of 2 per cent GR could be the field dosages for application in cesspits at weekly intervals, in abandoned wells every three weeks and in drains at weekly intervals, respectively. Diflubenzuron 25 per cent WP and 2 per cent GR could be used for larval control of Cx. quinquefasciatus under integrated vector management programme. PMID:23287125

Quantifying cosmic variance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Driver, Simon P.; Robotham, Aaron S. G.

2010-10-01

We determine an expression for the cosmic variance of any `normal' galaxy survey based on examination of M* +/- 1 mag galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 7 (DR7) data cube. We find that cosmic variance will depend on a number of factors principally: total survey volume, survey aspect ratio and whether the area surveyed is contiguous or comprising independent sightlines. As a rule of thumb cosmic variance falls below 10 per cent once a volume of 107h-30.7Mpc3 is surveyed for a single contiguous region with a 1:1 aspect ratio. Cosmic variance will be lower for higher aspect ratios and/or non-contiguous surveys. Extrapolating outside our test region we infer that cosmic variance in the entire SDSS DR7 main survey region is ~7 per cent to z < 0.1. The equation obtained from the SDSS DR7 region can be generalized to estimate the cosmic variance for any density measurement determined from normal galaxies (e.g. luminosity densities, stellar mass densities and cosmic star formation rates) within the volume range 103-107h-30.7Mpc3. We apply our equation to show that two sightlines are required to ensure that cosmic variance is <10 per cent in any ASKAP galaxy survey (divided into Δ z ~ 0.1 intervals, i.e. ~1Gyr intervals for z < 0.5). Likewise 10 MeerKAT sightlines will be required to meet the same conditions. GAMA, VVDS and zCOSMOS all suffer less than 10 per cent cosmic variance (~3-8 per cent) in Δ z intervals of 0.1, 0.25 and 0.5, respectively. Finally we show that cosmic variance is potentially at the 50-70 per cent level, or greater, in the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Ultra Deep Field depending on assumptions as to the evolution of clustering. 100 or 10 independent sightlines will be required to reduce cosmic variance to a manageable level (<10 per cent) for HST ACS or HST WFC3 surveys, respectively (in Δ z ~ 1 intervals). Cosmic variance is therefore a significant factor in the z > 6 HST studies currently underway.

Infant mortality and undernutrition in the squatter settlements of Karachi.

PubMed

Thaver, I H; Ebrahim, G J; Richardson, R

1990-06-01

The socio-demographic and biological processes contributing to infant mortality and undernourishment were studied in five urban squatter settlements of Karachi. All those families who had experienced an infant death in the past 2 years (N = 106) were recruited into the study. Comparative children were selected by random numbers with geographical matching from families with at least one live infant and without a history of infant deaths in the past 2 years. The comparison children were weighed and those found underweight (27 per cent) were studied for the presence of risk factors. Forty-one per cent of all deaths were in the neonatal period, and in 47 per cent of cases deaths had occurred in infants with a birth order of 5 and above. Age, duration of breast feeding, birth interval, and the live/dead status of the previous sibling were significant biological variables accounting for 23 per cent of the variance for survival. Socio-economic status accounted for 22 per cent of the variance and health-seeking behaviour (antenatal care, immunization, etc.) for 28 per cent. Sixty-eight per cent of those underweight were more than 6 months old. Age, female sex, birth interval less than 24 months, duration of breast feeding, adolescent mother, alive/dead status of the previous child were significant influences accounting for 12 per cent of the variance. Socio-economic status and health seeking behaviour were also important determinants, but not to the same extent as in the case of infant death.

Cost-effectiveness of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm in the Netherlands and Norway.

PubMed

Spronk, S; van Kempen, B J H; Boll, A P M; Jørgensen, J J; Hunink, M G M; Kristiansen, I S

2011-11-01

The aim of this study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of ultrasound screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) in men aged 65 years, for both the Netherlands and Norway. A Markov model was developed to simulate life expectancy, quality-adjusted life-years, net health benefits, lifetime costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for both screening and no screening for AAA. The best available evidence was retrieved from the literature and combined with primary data from the two countries separately, and analysed from a national perspective. A threshold willingness-to-pay (WTP) of €20,000 and €62,500 was used for data from the Netherlands and Norway respectively. The additional costs of the screening strategy compared with no screening were €421 (95 per cent confidence interval 33 to 806) per person in the Netherlands, and the additional life-years were 0·097 (-0·180 to 0·365), representing €4340 per life-year. For Norway, the values were €562 (59 to 1078), 0·057 (-0·135 to 0·253) life-years and €9860 per life-year respectively. In Norway the results were sensitive to a decrease in the prevalence of AAA in 65-year-old men to 1 per cent, or lower. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated that AAA screening has a 70 per cent probability of being cost-effective in the Netherlands with a WTP threshold of €20,000, and 70 per cent in Norway with a threshold of €62,500. Using this model, screening for AAA in 65-year-old men would be highly cost-effective in both the Netherlands and Norway. Copyright © 2011 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Optometry Australia Scope of Practice Survey 2015.

PubMed

Kiely, Patricia M; Cappuccio, Skye; McIntyre, Ellen

2017-05-01

This paper presents results from the inaugural Scope of Practice Survey of Optometry Australia members conducted in October 2015. The survey gathered information related to confidence in detecting and diagnosing key ocular conditions, grading diabetic retinopathy, prescribing scheduled medicines, access to equipment, confidence using equipment, incidence of patients requiring therapeutic management, referral practices and services provided. The survey was developed, piloted, modified and administered to members of Optometry Australia (excluding student and retired members), who had a current email address. Results were collated and analysed using Microsoft Excel. Of the 587 optometrists in clinical practice who responded, 254 (43 per cent) had therapeutic endorsement of registration. The majority of respondents practised in a major city or surrounding suburbs (63 per cent). Independent practice was the most frequently cited practice type (58 per cent). The estimated average number of patients seen in a week was 48; there was a steady decrease in the number of patients per week with increasing age, from 53 for optometrists in their 20s to 27 for optometrists aged over 70. There was very high confidence (over 93 per cent) in ability to grade diabetic retinopathy and diagnose a range of ocular conditions. Confidence in performance of more advanced techniques was higher for endorsed than non-endorsed optometrists. Approximately 12 per cent of patients required a Schedule 4 therapeutic prescription. The most frequently recommended over-the-counter medications were for dry eye for both endorsed and non-endorsed optometrists. The most frequently prescribed Schedule 4 medications were anti-inflammatories. The most challenging conditions to prescribe for were glaucoma, microbial keratitis and uveitis. Approximately one in six therapeutically endorsed optometrists reported unexpected side effects of medications they had prescribed. Information from the survey will guide Optometry Australia in the design of continuing professional development programs and other materials. © 2017 Optometry Australia.

Association between socioeconomic status, surgical treatment and mortality in patients with colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Dik, V K; Aarts, M J; Van Grevenstein, W M U; Koopman, M; Van Oijen, M G H; Lemmens, V E; Siersema, P D

2014-08-01

High socioeconomic status is associated with better survival in colorectal cancer (CRC). This study investigated whether socioeconomic status is associated with differences in surgical treatment and mortality in patients with CRC. Patients diagnosed with stage I-III CRC between 2005 and 2010 in the Eindhoven Cancer Registry area in the Netherlands were included. Socioeconomic status was determined at a neighbourhood level by combining the mean household income and the mean value of the housing. Some 4422 patients with colonic cancer and 2314 with rectal cancer were included. Patients with colonic cancer and high socioeconomic status were operated on with laparotomy (70·7 versus 77·6 per cent; P = 0·017), had laparoscopy converted to laparotomy (15·7 versus 29·5 per cent; P = 0·008) and developed anastomotic leakage or abscess (9·6 versus 12·6 per cent; P = 0·049) less frequently than patients with low socioeconomic status. These differences remained significant after adjustment for patient and tumour characteristics. In rectal cancer, patients with high socioeconomic status were more likely to undergo resection (96·3 versus 93·7 per cent; P = 0·083), but this was not significant in multivariable analysis (odds ratio (OR) 1·44, 95 per cent confidence interval 0·84 to 2·46). The difference in 30-day postoperative mortality in patients with colonic cancer and high and low socioeconomic status (3·6 versus 6·8 per cent; P < 0·001) was not significant after adjusting for age, co-morbidities, emergency surgery, and anastomotic leakage or abscess formation (OR 0·90, 0·51 to 1·57). Patients with CRC and high socioeconomic status have more favourable surgical treatment characteristics than patients with low socioeconomic status. The lower 30-day postoperative mortality found in patients with colonic cancer and high socioeconomic status is largely explained by patient and surgical factors. © 2014 BJS Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Field evaluation of the biolarvicide, spinosad 20 per cent emulsifiable concentrate in comparison to its 12 per cent suspension concentrate formulation against Culex quinquefasciatus, the vector of bancroftian filariasis in India.

PubMed

Sadanandane, Candasamy; Gunasekaran, Kasinathan; Boopathi Doss, Ponnusamy Sivagnana; Jambulingam, Purushothaman

2018-01-01

Biolarvicides may offer alternatives to chemical larvicides as these are known to be safe to environment and selective against the target species. However, only a limited number of biolarvicides have been approved for mosquito larval control. In the current study, a new formulation of spinosad, 20 per cent emulsifiable concentrate (EC) was tested for its efficacy against Culex quinquefasciatus, in comparison to its 12 per cent suspension concentrate (SC). Spinosad 20 per cent EC was tested against Cx. quinquefasciatus immature at 25, 50, 100 and 150 mg active ingredient (ai)/m [2] in cesspits, drains and abandoned wells in comparison with spinosad 12 per cent SC at the optimum field application dosage of 50 mg ai/m [2] . The 20 per cent EC caused 90-100 per cent reduction of pupal density for 7-14 days in cesspits, 10-17 days in drains and 14-30 days in abandoned wells at all dosages tested. At lower dosages of 25 and 50 mg ai/m [2] , >90 per cent reduction of pupal density was observed for one week in cesspits and street drains and for two weeks in abandoned wells. The effective duration of control provided by the higher dosages, 100 and 150 mg ai/m [2] was 1.4 to 2 times greater than the lower dosages, 25 and 50 mg ai/m [2] . The findings showed that the spinosad 20 per cent EC can be used for larval control against Cx. quinquefasciatus, at the dosage of 25 mg ai/m [2] at weekly interval in cesspits and drains and at fortnightly interval in abandoned wells. Spinosad 20 per cent EC could be one of the options to be considered for larval control under integrated vector management.

Surgical treatment for women with breast cancer: do randomized clinical trials represent current medical practices?

PubMed

Frederick, Wayne A I; Ames, Sarah; Downing, Stephanie R; Oyetunji, Tolulope A; Chang, David C; Leffall, Lasalle D

2010-06-01

Randomized clinical trials have not shown survival differences between breast cancer patients who undergo breast-conserving surgery and those who undergo modified radical mastectomy (MRM). Recent studies however, have suggested that these randomized clinical trials findings may not be representative of the entire population or the nature of current patient care. A retrospective analysis of female invasive breast cancer patients who underwent surgery in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (1990-2003) was performed. Survival was compared amongst women who underwent partial mastectomy, partial mastectomy plus radiation (PMR), or MRM. Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to investigate the impact of method of treatment upon survival, after adjusting for patient and tumor characteristics. A total of 218,043 patients, mean age 62 years, were identified. MRM accounted for 51.5 per cent of the study population whereas PMR accounted for 34.9 per cent. On multivariate analyses, significant improvement was observed in patient survival associated with PMR when compared with MRM patients (hazard ratio = 0.71, 95% confidence interval = 0.67-0.74, P < 0.001). This population-based study suggests that there is a survival benefit for women undergoing PMR in the treatment of breast cancer.

Occasional Smoking in Adolescence: Constructing an Identity of Control

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scheffels, Janne; Lund, Karl Erik

2005-01-01

This study discusses whether adolescent occasional smokers form a distinct subgroup in comparison with daily smokers, in terms of smoking motivation, confidence in ability to quit and social and cultural characteristics. In a sample of 2484 adolescents aged 16-19, 22 per cent (n = 552) were daily smokers and 20 per cent (n = 495) were occasional…

Galactic foreground contributions to the 5-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macellari, N.; Pierpaoli, E.; Dickinson, C.; Vaillancourt, J. E.

2011-12-01

We compute the cross-correlation between intensity and polarization from the 5-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP5) data in different sky regions with respect to template maps for synchrotron, dust and free-free emission. We derive the frequency dependence and polarization fraction for all three components in 48 different sky regions of HEALPIX (Nside= 2) pixelization. The anomalous emission associated with dust is clearly detected in intensity over the entire sky at the K (23-GHz) and Ka (33-GHz) WMAP bands, and is found to be the dominant foreground at low Galactic latitudes, between b =-40° and +10°. The synchrotron spectral index obtained from the K and Ka WMAP bands from an all-sky analysis is βs=-3.32 ± 0.12 for intensity and βs=-3.01 ± 0.03 for polarized intensity. The polarization fraction of the synchrotron emission is constant in frequency and increases with latitude from ≈5 per cent near the Galactic plane up to ≈40 per cent in some regions at high latitudes; the average value for |b| < 20° is 8.6 ± 1.7 (stat) ± 0.5 (sys) per cent, while for |b| > 20°, it is 19.3 ± 0.8 (stat) ± 0.5 (sys) per cent. Anomalous dust and free-free emissions appear to be relatively unpolarized. Monte Carlo simulations showed that there were biases of the method due to cross-talk between the components, at up to ≈5 per cent in any given pixel, and ≈1.5 per cent on average, when the true polarization fraction is low (a few per cent or less). Nevertheless, the average polarization fraction of dust-correlated emission at the K band is 3.2 ± 0.9 (stat) ± 1.5 (sys) per cent or less than 5 per cent at 95 per cent confidence. When comparing real data with simulations, eight regions show a detected polarization above the 99th percentile of the distribution from simulations with no input foreground polarization, six of which are detected at above 2σ and display polarization fractions between 2.6 and 7.2 per cent, except for one anomalous region, which has 32 ± 12 per cent. The dust polarization values are consistent with the expectation from spinning dust emission, but polarized dust emission from magnetic-dipole radiation cannot be ruled out. Free-free emission was found to be unpolarized with an upper limit of 3.4 per cent at 95 per cent confidence.

Upper limits to the quiet-time solar neutron flux from 10 to 100 MeV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moon, S.; Simnett, G. M.; White, R. S.

1976-01-01

A large-area solid-angle double-scatter neutron telescope was flown to search for solar neutrons on three balloon flights in 1971 and 1972. The first two flights were launched from Palestine, Texas, and the third from Cape Girardeau, Missouri. The float altitude on each flight was at about 5 g/sq cm residual atmosphere. Neutrons from 10 to 100 MeV were measured. No solar flares occurred during the flights. Upper limits to the quiet-time solar neutron fluxes at the 95-per cent confidence level are 2.8, 4.6, 9.6, and 9.0 x 10 to the -4th power neutron/sq cm/sec in the energy intervals of 10-30, 30-50, 50-100, and 10-100 MeV, respectively.

Guided endodontics: accuracy of a novel method for guided access cavity preparation and root canal location.

PubMed

Zehnder, M S; Connert, T; Weiger, R; Krastl, G; Kühl, S

2016-10-01

To present a novel method utilizing 3D printed templates to gain guided access to root canals and to evaluate its accuracy in vitro. Sixty extracted human teeth were placed into six maxillary jaw models. Preoperative CBCT scans were matched with intra-oral scans using the coDiagnostix(™) software. Access cavities, sleeves and templates for guidance were virtually planned. Templates were produced by a 3D printer. After access cavity preparation by two operators, a postoperative CBCT scan was superimposed on the virtual planning. Accuracy was measured by calculating the deviation of planned and prepared cavities in three dimensions and angle. Ninety-five per cent confidence intervals were calculated for both operators. All root canals were accessible after cavity preparation with 'Guided Endodontics'. Deviations of planned and prepared access cavities were low with means ranging from 0.16 to 0.21 mm for different aspects at the base of the bur and 0.17-0.47 mm at the tip of the bur. Mean of angle deviation was 1.81°. Overlapping 95% confidence intervals revealed no significant difference between operators. 'Guided Endodontics' allowed an accurate access cavity preparation up to the apical third of the root utilizing printed templates for guidance. All root canals were accessible after preparation. © 2015 International Endodontic Journal. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Practice transition in graduate medical education.

PubMed

Shaffer, Robyn; Piro, Nancy; Katznelson, Laurence; Gephart, Melanie Hayden

2017-10-01

Debt repayment, professional negotiation and practice management skills are vital to a successful medical practice, yet are undervalued and seldom taught in graduate medical education. Medical residents need additional training to confidently transition to independent practice, requiring the development of novel curricula. Medical residents need additional training to confidently transition to independent practice METHODS: We developed a trial practice management curriculum to educate senior residents and fellows through voluntary workshops. Topics discussed in the workshops included debt repayment, billing compliance, medical malpractice, contract negotiations, and lifestyle and financial management. Resident self-confidence was assessed, and feedback was obtained through voluntary survey responses before and after attendance at a workshop, scored using a Likert scale. Twenty-five residents from 20 specialties attended a 1-day session incorporating all lectures; 53 residents from 17 specialties attended a re-designed quarterly session with one or two topics per session. Survey evaluations completed before and after the workshop demonstrated an improvement in residents' self-assessment of confidence in contract negotiations (p < 0.001) and their first year in practice (p < 0.001): after the curriculum, 94 per cent (n = 42) of respondents felt confident participating in contract negotiations, and 93 per cent (n = 38) of respondents felt confident about their first year in practice. One hundred per cent of respondents agreed that the presentation objectives were relevant to their needs as residents. Participant responses indicated a need for structured education in practice management for senior trainees. Senior residents and fellows will benefit most from curricula, but have high familial and professional demands on their schedules. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and The Association for the Study of Medical Education.

National proficiency-gain curves for minimally invasive gastrointestinal cancer surgery.

PubMed

Mackenzie, H; Markar, S R; Askari, A; Ni, M; Faiz, O; Hanna, G B

2016-01-01

Minimal access surgery for gastrointestinal cancer has short-term benefits but is associated with a proficiency-gain curve. The aim of this study was to define national proficiency-gain curves for minimal access colorectal and oesophagogastric surgery, and to determine the impact on clinical outcomes. All adult patients undergoing minimal access oesophageal, colonic and rectal surgery between 2002 and 2012 were identified from the Hospital Episode Statistics database. Proficiency-gain curves were created using risk-adjusted cumulative sum analysis. Change points were identified, and bootstrapping was performed with 1000 iterations to identify a confidence level. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality; secondary outcomes were 90-day mortality, reintervention, conversion and length of hospital stay. Some 1696, 15 008 and 16 701 minimal access oesophageal, rectal and colonic cancer resections were performed during the study period. The change point in the proficiency-gain curve for 30-day mortality for oesophageal, rectal and colonic surgery was 19 (confidence level 98·4 per cent), 20 (99·2 per cent) and three (99·5 per cent) procedures; the mortality rate fell from 4·0 to 2·0 per cent (relative risk reduction (RRR) 0·50, P = 0·033), from 2·1 to 1·2 per cent (RRR 0·43, P < 0·001) and from 2·4 to 1·8 per cent (RRR 0·25, P = 0·058) respectively. The change point in the proficiency-gain curve for reintervention in oesophageal, rectal and colonic resection was 19 (98·1 per cent), 32 (99·5 per cent) and 26 (99·2 per cent) procedures respectively. There were also significant proficiency-gain curves for 90-day mortality, conversion and length of stay. The introduction of minimal access gastrointestinal cancer surgery has been associated with a proficiency-gain curve for mortality and major morbidity at a national level. Unnecessary patient harm should be avoided by appropriate training and monitoring of new surgical techniques. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Does Hofstetter's equation predict the real amplitude of accommodation in children?

PubMed

Hashemi, Hassan; Nabovati, Payam; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi; Yekta, Abbasali; Emamian, Mohammad Hassan; Fotouhi, Akbar

2018-01-01

The aim was to determine the distribution and associated factors of accommodative amplitude (AA) in six- to 12-year-old children and compare the results with those calculated using Hofstetter's formula. In a cross-sectional study in 2015, random sampling was done from urban and rural populations of Shahroud, northern Iran. Participating schoolchildren were examined for manifest, cycloplegic and subjective refraction, as well as uncorrected vision and visual acuity. The AA was measured with Donders' push-up method using a ruler. The near point of convergence (NPC) was also measured. Of the 6,624 selected children, 5,620 participated in the study and after applying the exclusion criteria, the final analyses were done on data from 5,444 schoolchildren. The mean age of the final sample was 9.24 ± 1.71 years (from six to 12 years) and 53.6 per cent (n = 2,919) were boys. Mean measured AA was 14.44 D (95 per cent confidence interval [CI]: 14.33-14.55). In all age groups, the mean measured AA was less than the predicted mean value calculated with the Hofstetter's equation. Mean measured AA was 14.44 D (95 per cent CI: 14.28-14.59) and 14.45 D (95 per cent CI: 14.29-14.6) in boys and girls, respectively (p = 0.926). AA significantly declined with age (coefficient: -0.18, 95 per cent CI: -0.23 to -0.12, p < 0.001). Mean AA in emmetropic, myopic and hyperopic children was 14.31 D, 17.30 D and 14.87 D, respectively. Older age (coefficient = -0.18), living in rural areas (coefficient = -0.48) and NPC (coefficient = 0.47) inversely related with AA and higher AA was associated with a shift of the spherical equivalent refraction toward myopia (coefficient = -0.41). The differences among groups with different types of refractive error and high AA in children with myopia are important findings of this study. The results of the present study suggest that Hofstetter's formula provides inaccurate AA estimates in children and thus, the interpretation of this index requires further population-based studies in different racial and ethnic groups. © 2017 Optometry Australia.

Reasons for non-participation in population-based abdominal aortic aneurysm screening.

PubMed

Linne, A; Leander, K; Lindström, D; Törnberg, S; Hultgren, R

2014-04-01

A population-based screening programme for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) started in 2010 in Stockholm County, Sweden. This present study used individual data from Sweden's extensive healthcare registries to identify the reasons for non-participation in the AAA screening programme. All 65-year-old men in Stockholm are invited to screening for AAA; this study included all men invited from July 2010 to July 2012. Participants and non-participants were compared for socioeconomic factors, travel distance to the examination centre and healthcare use. The influence of these factors on participation was analysed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression models. The participation rate for AAA screening was 77·6 per cent (18 876 of 24 319 men invited). The prevalence of AAA (aortic diameter more than 2·9 cm) among participants was 1·4 per cent. The most important reasons for non-participation in the multivariable regression analyses were: recent immigration (within 5 years) (odds ratio (OR) 3·25, 95 per cent confidence interval 1·94 to 5·47), low income (OR 2·76, 2·46 to 3·10), marital status single or divorced (OR 2·23, 2·08 to 2·39), low level of education (OR 1·28, 1·16 to 1·40) and long travel distance (OR 1·23, 1·10 to 1·37). Non-participants had a higher incidence of stroke (4·5 versus 2·8 per cent; P < 0·001) and chronic pulmonary disease (2·9 versus 1·3 per cent; P < 0·001). Daily smoking was more common in residential areas where the participation rate for AAA screening was low. Efforts to improve participation in AAA screening should target the groups with low income, a low level of education and immigrants. The higher morbidity in the non-participant group, together with a higher rate of smoking, make it probable that this group also has a high risk of AAA. © 2014 BJS Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Establishment of reference intervals for plasma protein electrophoresis in Indo-Pacific green sea turtles, Chelonia mydas.

PubMed

Flint, Mark; Matthews, Beren J; Limpus, Colin J; Mills, Paul C

2015-01-01

Biochemical and haematological parameters are increasingly used to diagnose disease in green sea turtles. Specific clinical pathology tools, such as plasma protein electrophoresis analysis, are now being used more frequently to improve our ability to diagnose disease in the live animal. Plasma protein reference intervals were calculated from 55 clinically healthy green sea turtles using pulsed field electrophoresis to determine pre-albumin, albumin, α-, β- and γ-globulin concentrations. The estimated reference intervals were then compared with data profiles from clinically unhealthy turtles admitted to a local wildlife hospital to assess the validity of the derived intervals and identify the clinically useful plasma protein fractions. Eighty-six per cent {19 of 22 [95% confidence interval (CI) 65-97]} of clinically unhealthy turtles had values outside the derived reference intervals, including the following: total protein [six of 22 turtles or 27% (95% CI 11-50%)], pre-albumin [two of five, 40% (95% CI 5-85%)], albumin [13 of 22, 59% (95% CI 36-79%)], total albumin [13 of 22, 59% (95% CI 36-79%)], α- [10 of 22, 45% (95% CI 24-68%)], β- [two of 10, 20% (95% CI 3-56%)], γ- [one of 10, 10% (95% CI 0.3-45%)] and β-γ-globulin [one of 12, 8% (95% CI 0.2-38%)] and total globulin [five of 22, 23% (8-45%)]. Plasma protein electrophoresis shows promise as an accurate adjunct tool to identify a disease state in marine turtles. This study presents the first reference interval for plasma protein electrophoresis in the Indo-Pacific green sea turtle.

Peer-teaching of evidence-based medicine.

PubMed

Rees, Eliot; Sinha, Yashashwi; Chitnis, Abhishek; Archer, James; Fotheringham, Victoria; Renwick, Stephen

2014-07-01

Many medical schools teach the principles of evidence-based medicine (EBM) as part of their undergraduate curriculum. Medical students perceive that EBM is valuable to their undergraduate and postgraduate career. Students may experience barriers to applying EBM principles, especially when searching for evidence or identifying high-quality resources. The UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Evidence Search is a service that enables access to authoritative clinical and non-clinical evidence and best practice through a web-based portal. Evidence-based medicine workshops were organised and delivered by fourth-year medical students, having first received training from NICE to become NICE student champions. The workshops covered the basic principles of EBM and focused on retrieving EBM resources for study through the NICE Evidence Search portal. The scheme was evaluated using a pre-workshop survey and an 8-12 week post-workshop survey. Self-reported confidence in searching for evidence-based resources increased from 29 per cent before the workshop to 87 per cent after the workshop. Only 1 per cent of students rated evidence-based resources as their first preference pre-workshop, compared with 31 per cent post-workshop. The results show that although many students were aware of evidence-based resources, they tended not to use them as their preferred resource. Despite appreciating the value of evidence-based resources, few students were confident in accessing and using such resources for pre-clinical study. A peer-taught workshop in EBM improved students' confidence with, and use of, evidence-based resources. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Challenges in the treatment of lactational mastitis for general practitioners.

PubMed

Topić, Zeljka; Amir, Lisa H; Zakarija-Grković, Irena

2015-11-01

To determine how GPs manage breastfeeding women with mastitis and how confident they are in treating women with breast conditions that occur during lactation. A cross-sectional survey conducted among all Croatian GPs. Sixty-four per cent of the total number of respondents (171/268) had seen a patient with lactational mastitis (LM) in the previous 12 months. Among respondents who recommended medication for the treatment of LM, 93% prescribed an antibiotic (122/131). Fifteen per cent of respondents who gave advice on infant feeding advised alternative feeding methods. Approximately half (47%) felt completely confident when treating LM while more than half (57%) felt partially confident when treating other breast conditions that can occur during lactation. The management of LM among Croatian GPs is not in full compliance with current recommendations. FUTURE IMPLICATIONS: There is a need for further training of Croatian GPs in the management of mastitis.

Is psychotropic medication use related to organisational and treatment culture in residential care.

PubMed

Peri, Kathryn; Kerse, Ngaire; Moyes, Simon; Scahill, Shane; Chen, Charlotte; Hong, Jae Beom; Hughes, Carmel M

2015-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to establish the relationship between organisational culture and psychotropic medication use in residential care. Cross-sectional analyses of staff and resident's record survey in residential aged care facilities in Auckland, New Zealand (NZ). The competing values framework categorised organisational culture as clan, hierarchical, market driven or adhocracy and was completed by all staff. The treatment culture tool categorised facilities as having resident centred or traditional culture and was completed by registered nursing staff and general practitioners (GP). Functional and behavioural characteristics of residents were established by staff report and health characteristics and medications used were ascertained from the health record. Multiple regression was used to test for associations between measures of culture with psychotropic medication use (anxiolytics, sedatives, major tranquillisers). In total 199 staff, 27 GP and 527 residents participated from 14 facilities. On average 8.5 medications per resident were prescribed and 42 per cent of residents received psychotropic medication. Having a diagnosis of anxiety or depression (odds ratio (OR) 3.18, 95 per cent confidence interval (CI) 1.71, 5.91), followed by persistent wandering (OR 2.53, 95 per cent CI 1.59, 4.01) and being in a dementia unit (OR 2.45, 95 per cent CI 1.17, 5.12) were most strongly associated with psychotropic use. Controlling for resident- and facility-level factors, health care assistants' assignation of hierarchical organisational culture type was independently associated with psychotropic medication use, (OR 1.29, CI 1.08, 1.53) and a higher treatment culture score from the GP was associated with lower use of psychotropic medication (OR 0.95, CI 0.92, 0.98). Psychotropic medication use remains prevalent in residential care facilities in NZ. Interventions aimed at changing organisational culture towards a less hierarchical and more resident-centred culture may be another avenue to improve prescribing in residential aged care.

Outcome of selective non-operative management of penetrating abdominal injuries from the North American National Trauma Database.

PubMed

Zafar, S N; Nabeel Zafar, S; Rushing, A; Haut, E R; Kisat, M T; Villegas, C V; Chi, A; Stevens, K; Efron, D T; Zafar, H; Haider, A H

2012-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate trends in the practice of selective non-operative management (SNOM) for penetrating abdominal injury (PAI) and to determine factors associated with its failure. The National Trauma Data Bank for 2002-2008 was reviewed. Patients with PAI were categorized as those who underwent successful SNOM (operative management not required) and those who failed SNOM (surgery required more than 4 h after admission). Yearly rates of SNOM versus non-therapeutic laparotomy (NTL) were plotted. Multivariable regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with failed SNOM and mortality. A total of 12 707 patients with abdominal gunshot and 13 030 with stab wounds were identified. Rates of SNOM were 22.2 per cent for gunshot and 33.9 per cent for stab wounds, and increased with time (P < 0.001). There was a strong correlation between the rise in SNOM and the decline in NTL (r = - 0.70). SNOM failed in 20.8 and 15.2 per cent of patients with gunshot and stab wounds respectively. Factors predicting failure included the need for blood transfusion (odds ratio (OR) 1.96, 95 per cent confidence interval 1.11 to 3.46) and a higher injury score. Failed SNOM was independently associated with mortality in both the gunshot (OR 4.48, 2.07 to 9.70) and stab (OR 9.83, 3.44 to 28.00) wound groups. The practice of SNOM is increasing, with an associated decrease in the rate of NTL for PAI. In most instances SNOM is successful; however, its failure is associated with increased mortality. Careful patient selection and adherence to protocols designed to decrease the failure rate of SNOM are recommended. Copyright © 2011 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Concurrent immune-mediated haemolytic anaemia and severe thrombocytopenia in 21 dogs.

PubMed

Goggs, R; Boag, A K; Chan, D L

2008-09-13

The medical records of 21 dogs with concurrent immune-mediated haemolytic anaemia (imha) and severe thrombocytopenia (defined as an automated platelet count of less than 50x10(9)/l, confirmed by the examination of a blood smear) were reviewed. Their mean (sd) age was 5.8 (2.5) years. When compared with the 24,759 dogs in the hospital population for the same period Airedale terriers and dobermanns appeared to be over-represented with odds ratios of 22.5 (95 per cent confidence interval [ci] 5.2 to 97.9) and 7.6 (95 per cent ci 1.8 to 32.7) respectively. The median duration of the dogs' clinical signs was seven days, with a range from one to 17 days. Eleven of the dogs had a history of a tendency to bleed, and 15 had evidence of bleeding when examined. Twenty of the 21 dogs had been treated with glucocorticoids, nine with vincristine, and seven with azathioprine. Their median stay in hospital was four days, with a range from one to 17 days. The median period for which they survived after admission to hospital was five days, with a range from one to 558 days, and 16 of the 21 dogs had died or been euthanased within 30 days of their admission.

First-trimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein as a marker for fetal chromosomal disorders. Dutch Working Party on Prenatal Diagnosis.

PubMed

Van Lith, J M

1994-10-01

We evaluated first-trimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MS-AFP) as a marker for fetal chromosomal disorders. The multicentre study was performed under the auspices of the Dutch Working Party on Prenatal Diagnosis. MS-AFP was measured in 2404 normal pregnancies and 72 chromosomally abnormal pregnancies. The median multiple of the normal median (MOM) in 32 Down's syndrome pregnancies was 0.83 with a 95 per cent confidence interval ranging from 0.60 to 1.04. The difference between the distributions of first-trimester MS-AFP in normal and Down's syndrome pregnancies was statistically significant (t-test: t = 2.34, P < 0.05). Thirty-one per cent of the Down's syndrome pregnancies were found below the tenth percentile. We found no difference between normal pregnancies and pregnancies with other chromosomal disorders (eight cases with trisomy 18, MOM = 1.26; seven cases with sex chromosome abnormalities, MOM = 1.07; 22 cases with a chromosomal mosaic pattern in chorionic villi, MOM = 1.08). We conclude that first-trimester MS-AFP can discriminate between normal and Down's syndrome pregnancies, but is not an effective marker. First-trimester MS-AFP has no value as a marker for other fetal chromosomal disorders.

Global carbon dioxide emissions from inland waters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raymond, Peter A.; Hartmann, Jens; Lauerwald, Ronny; Sobek, Sebastian; McDonald, Cory P.; Hoover, Mark; Butman, David; Striegl, Robert G.; Mayorga, Emilio; Humborg, Christoph; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Durr, Hans H.; Meybeck, Michel; Ciais, Philippe; Guth, Peter

2013-01-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) transfer from inland waters to the atmosphere, known as CO2 evasion, is a component of the global carbon cycle. Global estimates of CO2 evasion have been hampered, however, by the lack of a framework for estimating the inland water surface area and gas transfer velocity and by the absence of a global CO2 database. Here we report regional variations in global inland water surface area, dissolved CO2 and gas transfer velocity. We obtain global CO2 evasion rates of 1.8   petagrams of carbon (Pg C) per year from streams and rivers and 0.32  Pg C yr−1 from lakes and reservoirs, where the upper and lower limits are respectively the 5th and 95th confidence interval percentiles. The resulting global evasion rate of 2.1 Pg C yr−1 is higher than previous estimates owing to a larger stream and river evasion rate. Our analysis predicts global hotspots in stream and river evasion, with about 70 per cent of the flux occurring over just 20 per cent of the land surface. The source of inland water CO2 is still not known with certainty and new studies are needed to research the mechanisms controlling CO2 evasion globally.

The prevalence of stroke and associated disability.

PubMed

O'Mahony, P G; Thomson, R G; Dobson, R; Rodgers, H; James, O F

1999-06-01

There are limited data available on the prevalence of stroke in the United Kingdom. Such data are important for the assessment of the health needs of the population. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of stroke and the prevalence of associated dependence in a district of northern England. This was a two-stage point prevalence study. A valid screening questionnaire was used to identify stroke survivors from an age- and sex-stratified sample of the population aged 45 years and over in a family health services authority district. This was followed by assessment of stroke patients with scales of disability and handicap. The overall prevalence of stroke was found to be 17.5/1000 (95 per cent confidence interval (CI) 17.0, 18.0). The prevalence of stroke-associated dependence was 11.7/1000 (95 per cent CI 11.3, 12.1). Self-reported comorbidity was most commonly due to circulatory and musculoskeletal disorders. The prevalence of stroke in this district is considerably higher than current guidelines and previous results suggest. Nevertheless, the result from this study combined with that from a previous study in another district in the United Kingdom should allow those interested in epidemiologically based health needs assessment to make reasonable estimates of the burden of stroke in their area.

75 FR 27605 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-17

... Rule Change Relating to One Cent Strike Price Intervals of Foreign Currency Options May 7, 2010... cent ($0.01) for each expiration month for U.S. dollar-settled foreign currency options (``FCOs'') opened for trading on the Exchange.\\3\\ \\3\\ FCOs are also known as World Currency Options (``WCOs...

Chandra survey in the AKARI North Ecliptic Pole Deep Field - I. X-ray data, point-like source catalogue, sensitivity maps, and number counts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krumpe, M.; Miyaji, T.; Brunner, H.; Hanami, H.; Ishigaki, T.; Takagi, T.; Markowitz, A. G.; Goto, T.; Malkan, M. A.; Matsuhara, H.; Pearson, C.; Ueda, Y.; Wada, T.

2015-01-01

We present data products from the 300 ks Chandra survey in the AKARI North Ecliptic Pole Deep Field. This field has a unique set of nine-band infrared photometry covering 2-24 μm from the AKARI Infrared Camera, including mid-infrared (MIR) bands not covered by Spitzer. The survey is one of the deepest ever achieved at ˜15 μm, and is by far the widest among those with similar depths in the MIR. This makes this field unique for the MIR-selection of AGN at z ˜ 1. We design a source detection procedure, which performs joint maximum likelihood PSF (point spread function) fits on all of our 15 mosaicked Chandra pointings covering an area of 0.34 deg2. The procedure has been highly optimized and tested by simulations. We provide a point source catalogue with photometry and Bayesian-based 90 per cent confidence upper limits in the 0.5-7, 0.5-2, 2-7, 2-4, and 4-7 keV bands. The catalogue contains 457 X-ray sources and the spurious fraction is estimated to be ˜1.7 per cent. Sensitivity and 90 per cent confidence upper flux limits maps in all bands are provided as well. We search for optical-MIR counterparts in the central 0.25 deg2, where deep Subaru Suprime-Cam multiband images exist. Among the 377 X-ray sources detected there, ˜80 per cent have optical counterparts and ˜60 per cent also have AKARI MIR counterparts. We cross-match our X-ray sources with MIR-selected AGN from Hanami et al. Around 30 per cent of all AGN that have MIR SEDs purely explainable by AGN activity are strong Compton-thick AGN candidates.

Cas A and the Crab were not stellar binaries at death

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kochanek, C. S.

2018-01-01

The majority of massive stars are in binaries, which implies that many core collapse supernovae should be binaries at the time of the explosion. Here we show that the three most recent, local (visual) SNe (the Crab, Cas A and SN 1987A) were not stellar binaries at death, with limits on the initial mass ratios of q = M2/M1 ≲ 0.1. No quantitative limits have previously been set for Cas A and the Crab, while for SN 1987A we merely updated existing limits in view of new estimates of the dust content. The lack of stellar companions to these three ccSNe implies a 90 per cent confidence upper limit on the q ≳ 0.1 binary fraction at death of fb < 44 per cent. In a passively evolving binary model (meaning no binary interactions), with a flat mass ratio distribution and a Salpeter IMF, the resulting 90 per cent confidence upper limit on the initial binary fraction of F < 63 per cent is in tension with observed massive binary statistics. Allowing a significant fraction fM ≃ 25 per cent of stellar binaries to merge reduces the tension, with F < 63({1-f}M)^{-1}{ per cent} ˜eq 81{ per cent}, but allowing for the significant fraction in higher order systems (triples, etc.) reintroduces the tension. That Cas A was not a stellar binary at death also shows that a surviving massive binary companion at the time of the explosion is not necessary for producing a Type IIb SNe. Much larger surveys for binary companions to Galactic SNe will become feasible with the release of the full Gaia proper motion and parallax catalogues providing a powerful probe of the statistics of such binaries and their role in massive star evolution, neutron star velocity distributions and runaway stars.

Sampling Theory and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Using ESCI To Illustrate "Bouncing"; Confidence Intervals.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Du, Yunfei

This paper discusses the impact of sampling error on the construction of confidence intervals around effect sizes. Sampling error affects the location and precision of confidence intervals. Meta-analytic resampling demonstrates that confidence intervals can haphazardly bounce around the true population parameter. Special software with graphical…

On Some Confidence Intervals for Estimating the Mean of a Skewed Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shi, W.; Kibria, B. M. Golam

2007-01-01

A number of methods are available in the literature to measure confidence intervals. Here, confidence intervals for estimating the population mean of a skewed distribution are considered. This note proposes two alternative confidence intervals, namely, Median t and Mad t, which are simple adjustments to the Student's t confidence interval. In…

Incidence of facial clefts in Cambridge, United Kingdom.

PubMed

Bister, Dirk; Set, Patricia; Cash, Charlotte; Coleman, Nicholas; Fanshawe, Thomas

2011-08-01

The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of facial clefting in Cambridge, UK, using multiple resources of ascertainment and to relate the findings to antenatal ultrasound screening (AUS) detection rates. AUS records from an obstetric ultrasound department, post-natal records from the regional craniofacial unit, and autopsy reports of foetuses over 16 weeks' gestational age from a regional pathology department from 1993 to 1997 were retrospectively reviewed. Cross-referencing between the three data sets identified all cases of facial clefts. Of 23,577 live and stillbirths, 30 had facial clefts. AUS detected 17 of these. Sixteen of the 30 had isolated facial clefts. Others had associated anomalies, chromosomal defects, or syndromes. Percentages and confidence intervals were calculated from the above data. Twenty-one resulted in live births, seven terminations, and two foetal deaths. Overall, detection rate by AUS was 65 percent [67 percent isolated cleft lip, 93 per cent cleft lip and palate (CLP), and 22 percent isolated cleft palate], with no false positives. The incidence of facial clefts was 0.127 percent (95 percent confidence interval 0.089-0.182 percent); the incidence for isolated CLP was lower than previously reported: 0.067 percent (0.042-0.110 percent). With one exception, all terminations were in foetuses with multiple anomalies. The figures presented will enable joint CLP clinics to give parents information of termination rates. The study allows pre-pregnancy counselling of families previously affected by clefting about the reliability of AUS detection rates.

Impact of lambdacyhalothrin capsule suspension treated bed nets on malaria in tribal villages of Malkangiri district, Orissa, India.

PubMed

Sahu, S S; Vijayakumar, T; Kalyanasundaram, M; Subramanian, S; Jambulingam, P

2008-09-01

Insecticide treated mosquito nets are increasingly being used in malaria control programmes. One of the problems with the treatment of bed nets with conventional formulations of insecticides was that regular washing of treated nets diminish insecticidal effect. Lambdacyhalothrin 2.5 capsule suspension (CS) (2.5% a.i., w/v), a new water-based microencapsulated formulation is reported to have wash-resistant property and longer persistence on the netting material than other formulations. We evaluated the impact of the use of nylon bed nets treated with lambdacyhalothrin 2.5 CS at 10 mg (a.i.)/m(2) in comparison to untreated nets and no nets on malaria in tribal villages in Orissa. Nine foothill villages, highly endemic for falciparum malaria, from the Primary Health Centre (PHC) areas of Khairput and Kudumulugumma of Malkangiri district, Orissa, were divided into three groups, each with a population of about 500 and allocated randomly for treated (TN) and untreated nets (UN) and no nets (NN). Bed nets were distributed in September 2001 and retreatment was done in June 2002. The impact was assessed based on the changes in vector density, parous rate, malaria incidence and parasite rates. Indoor-resting collections of Anopheles fluviatilis and An. culicifacies were made at fortnightly intervals from fixed human dwellings. Mass blood surveys before and after distribution of nets and fortnightly active surveillance were carried out to assess the change in parasite rates and malaria incidence. Bioassays were conducted at fortnightly intervals on the bed nets supplied to the villagers. The reductions in indoor resting catches of An. fluviatilis and An. culicifacies were 96 and 38 per cent in villages with treated nets and 2.6 and 23 per cent in villages with untreated nets respectively compared to no net villages. For six months following treatment, 100 per cent mortality of An. fluviatilis was observed on the unwashed nets and on the nets washed once or twice. After re-treatment, 100 per cent mortality of An. fluviatilis or An. culicifacies was observed for nine months even after two washes. Usage rates of treated and untreated nets varied seasonally; 58.9 and 46.3 per cent in rainy season, 48.6 and 37.1 per cent in winter season and 38.1 and 31.6 per cent in summer season respectively. Reductions in malaria parasite rates were about 65 per cent in the treated net villages and 39 per cent in the untreated net villages compared to no net villages. About 75 per cent of treated nets and 60 per cent of untreated nets were in usable condition 19 months after distribution. The estimated protection factor based on malaria incidence was 86 per cent for the treated nets during both post-treatment and post-retreatment periods and 34 and 51 per cent for untreated nets for the corresponding periods compared to no nets. The results of the study showed that the use of bed nets treated nets with CS formulation of lambdacyhalothrin at 10 mg (a.i.)/m(2) was acceptable to the community and re-treatment of nets at nine-monthly intervals can significantly reduce density and survival of An. fluviatilis and incidence of falciparum malaria.

Open cholecystectomy in the laparoscopic era.

PubMed

Jenkins, P J; Paterson, H M; Parks, R W; Garden, O J

2007-11-01

As techniques in laparoscopic cholecystectomy have improved, surgeon experience of open cholecystectomy may be limited. This study examined the current indications for and techniques used in primary open cholecystectomy. Some 3100 consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency cholecystectomy over a 5-year interval were identified from a prospective surgical audit database. Demographic, diagnostic and procedural data were examined. There were 123 (4.0 per cent) primary and 219 (7.4 per cent) converted open cholecystectomies. Some 48.0 and 45.6 per cent of patients in the primary open cholecystectomy and converted groups respectively were men, compared with 24.0 per cent of 2758 who had a successful laparoscopic procedure. Primary open cholecystectomy was employed principally for previous upper abdominal open surgery (22.7 per cent) and emergency operation for general peritonitis (19.5 per cent). The fundus-first approach was employed in 53.7 per cent of primary open procedures and 53.0 per cent of conversions, with subtotal excision in 4.9 and 13.2 per cent respectively. Primary open cholecystectomy remains a common procedure in the treatment of gallbladder disease despite the success of laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Successful outcome in difficult cases requires familiarity with specific techniques, exposure to which may be limited in current training programmes. Copyright (c) 2007 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd.

Awareness of diabetic foot disease amongst patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus attending the chronic outpatients department at a regional hospital in Durban, South Africa

PubMed Central

Naidoo, Mergan

2016-01-01

Background Diabetic foot disease (DFD) is a major challenge for the healthcare system, with enormous economic consequences for people living with diabetes, their families, and society, affecting both quality of life and quality of care. The study aim was to assess the level of awareness of DFD amongst patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods An observational descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted at the chronic outpatients department of a regional hospital in Durban, South Africa. Results Two hundred participants with T2DM participated in the study. Ninety-one per cent of participants were either overweight or obese. Ninety-two per cent of participants had concomitant hypertension (57.5%), dyslipidaemia (26.7%) and eye disease (7.2%). Seventy-six per cent reported altered sensation in their lower limbs, and 90% reported having no previous DFD education. Only 22.2% of participants reported having examined their feet, but only when they experienced a problem. Participants achieved mediocre scores for knowledge (mean 4.45, standard deviation (s.d.) 2.201, confidence interval (CI) 4.2–4.7) and practice (mean 11.09, s.d. 2.233, CI 10.8–11.5) on diabetic foot care (DFC). Those who had a higher level of education and who were less than 65 years old had a significantly better score for previous foot care education (p <0.05). Conclusion The study demonstrated that awareness of DFD was suboptimal, based on current DFC guidelines. To minimise the burden of DFD, improved screening and prevention programmes as well as patient education should be provided to T2DM patients, whilst maintaining an aggressive approach to risk factor modifications, footwear and identifying the at-risk foot. PMID:28155315

Awareness of diabetic foot disease amongst patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus attending the chronic outpatients department at a regional hospital in Durban, South Africa.

PubMed

Goie, Thea T; Naidoo, Mergan

2016-11-17

Diabetic foot disease (DFD) is a major challenge for the healthcare system, with enormous economic consequences for people living with diabetes, their families, and society, affecting both quality of life and quality of care. The study aim was to assess the level of awareness of DFD amongst patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). An observational descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted at the chronic outpatients department of a regional hospital in Durban, South Africa. Two hundred participants with T2DM participated in the study. Ninety-one per cent of participants were either overweight or obese. Ninety-two per cent of participants had concomitant hypertension (57.5%), dyslipidaemia (26.7%) and eye disease (7.2%). Seventy-six per cent reported altered sensation in their lower limbs, and 90% reported having no previous DFD education. Only 22.2% of participants reported having examined their feet, but only when they experienced a problem. Participants achieved mediocre scores for knowledge (mean 4.45, standard deviation (s.d.) 2.201, confidence interval (CI) 4.2-4.7) and practice (mean 11.09, s.d. 2.233, CI 10.8-11.5) on diabetic foot care (DFC). Those who had a higher level of education and who were less than 65 years old had a significantly better score for previous foot care education (p < 0.05). The study demonstrated that awareness of DFD was suboptimal, based on current DFC guidelines. To minimise the burden of DFD, improved screening and prevention programmes as well as patient education should be provided to T2DM patients, whilst maintaining an aggressive approach to risk factor modifications, footwear and identifying the at-risk foot.

Ischaemic heart disease mortality in Serbia, 1991-2013; a joinpoint analysis

PubMed Central

Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

2017-01-01

Background & objectives: Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) has been one of the leading causes of mortality in the world. In many European countries the mortality rates due to IHD have been rising rapidly. This study was aimed to assess the IHD mortality trend in Serbia. Methods: A population-based cross-sectional study analyzing IHD mortality in Serbia in the period 1991-2013 was carried out based on official data. The age-standardized rates (ASRs, per 100,000) were calculated using the direct method, according to the European standard population. Joinpoint analysis was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95 per cent confidence interval (CI). Results: More than 253,000 people (143,420 men and 110,276 women) died due to IHD in Serbia during the observed period, and most of them (over 160,000 people) were patients with myocardial infarction (MI). Average annual ASR for IHD was 113.6/100,000. There was no overall significant trend for mortality due to IHD (AAPC=+0.1%, 95% CI −0.8-1.0), but there was one joinpoint: the trend significantly increased by +2.3 per cent per year from 1991 to 2006 and then significantly decreased by −6.4 per cent from 2006 to onwards. Significantly decreased mortality trends for MI in both genders were observed: according to the comparability test, mortality trends in men and women were parallel (final selected model failed to reject parallelism, P=0.0567). Interpretation & conclusions: No significant trend for mortality due to IHD was observed in Serbia during the study period. The substantial decline of mortality from IHD seen in most developed countries during the past decades was not observed in Serbia. Further efforts are required to reduce mortality from IHD in Serbian population. PMID:29664033

Establishment of reference intervals for plasma protein electrophoresis in Indo-Pacific green sea turtles, Chelonia mydas

PubMed Central

Flint, Mark; Matthews, Beren J.; Limpus, Colin J.; Mills, Paul C.

2015-01-01

Biochemical and haematological parameters are increasingly used to diagnose disease in green sea turtles. Specific clinical pathology tools, such as plasma protein electrophoresis analysis, are now being used more frequently to improve our ability to diagnose disease in the live animal. Plasma protein reference intervals were calculated from 55 clinically healthy green sea turtles using pulsed field electrophoresis to determine pre-albumin, albumin, α-, β- and γ-globulin concentrations. The estimated reference intervals were then compared with data profiles from clinically unhealthy turtles admitted to a local wildlife hospital to assess the validity of the derived intervals and identify the clinically useful plasma protein fractions. Eighty-six per cent {19 of 22 [95% confidence interval (CI) 65–97]} of clinically unhealthy turtles had values outside the derived reference intervals, including the following: total protein [six of 22 turtles or 27% (95% CI 11–50%)], pre-albumin [two of five, 40% (95% CI 5–85%)], albumin [13 of 22, 59% (95% CI 36–79%)], total albumin [13 of 22, 59% (95% CI 36–79%)], α- [10 of 22, 45% (95% CI 24–68%)], β- [two of 10, 20% (95% CI 3–56%)], γ- [one of 10, 10% (95% CI 0.3–45%)] and β–γ-globulin [one of 12, 8% (95% CI 0.2–38%)] and total globulin [five of 22, 23% (8–45%)]. Plasma protein electrophoresis shows promise as an accurate adjunct tool to identify a disease state in marine turtles. This study presents the first reference interval for plasma protein electrophoresis in the Indo-Pacific green sea turtle. PMID:27293722

Systematic review of high-intensity focused ultrasound ablation in the treatment of breast cancer.

PubMed

Peek, M C L; Ahmed, M; Napoli, A; ten Haken, B; McWilliams, S; Usiskin, S I; Pinder, S E; van Hemelrijck, M; Douek, M

2015-07-01

A systematic review was undertaken to assess the clinical efficacy of non-invasive high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) ablation in the treatment of breast cancer. MEDLINE/PubMed library databases were used to identify all studies published up to December 2013 that evaluated the role of HIFU ablation in the treatment of breast cancer. Studies were eligible if they were performed on patients with breast cancer and objectively recorded at least one clinical outcome measure of response (imaging, histopathological or cosmetic) to HIFU treatment. Nine studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The absence of tumour or residual tumour after treatment was reported for 95·8 per cent of patients (160 of 167). No residual tumour was found in 46·2 per cent (55 of 119; range 17-100 per cent), less than 10 per cent residual tumour in 29·4 per cent (35 of 119; range 0-53 per cent), and between 10 and 90 per cent residual tumour in 22·7 per cent (27 of 119; range 0-60 per cent). The most common complication associated with HIFU ablation was pain (40·1 per cent) and less frequently oedema (16·8 per cent), skin burn (4·2 per cent) and pectoralis major injury (3·6 per cent). MRI showed an absence of contrast enhancement after treatment in 82 per cent of patients (31 of 38; range 50-100 per cent), indicative of coagulative necrosis. Correlation of contrast enhancement on pretreatment and post-treatment MRI successfully predicted the presence of residual disease. HIFU treatment can induce coagulative necrosis in breast cancers. Complete ablation has not been reported consistently on histopathology and no imaging modality has been able confidently to predict the percentage of complete ablation. Consistent tumour and margin necrosis with reliable follow-up imaging are required before HIFU ablation can be evaluated within large, prospective clinical trials. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Higher Retail Prices of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages 3 Months After Implementation of an Excise Tax in Berkeley, California

PubMed Central

Rojas, Nadia; Grummon, Anna H.; Madsen, Kristine A.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We assessed the short-term ability to increase retail prices of the first US 1-cent-per-ounce excise tax on the distribution of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), which was implemented in March 2015 by Berkeley, California. Methods. In 2014 and 2015, we examined pre- to posttax price changes of SSBs and non-SSBs in a variety of retailers in Berkeley and in the comparison cities Oakland and San Francisco, California. We examined price changes by beverage, brand, size, and retailer type. Results. For smaller beverages (≤ 33.8 oz), price increases (cents/oz) in Berkeley relative to those in comparison cities were 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.36, 1.03) for soda, 0.47 (95% CI = 0.08, 0.87) for fruit-flavored beverages, and 0.47 (95% CI = 0.25, 0.69) for SSBs overall. For 2-liter bottles and multipacks of soda, relative price increases were 0.46 (95% CI = 0.03, 0.89) and 0.49 (95% CI = 0.21, 0.77). We observed no relative price increases for nontaxed beverages overall. Conclusions. Approximately 3 months after the tax was implemented, SSB retail prices increased more in Berkeley than in nearby cities, marking a step in the causal pathway between the tax and reduced SSB consumption. PMID:26444622

Higher Retail Prices of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages 3 Months After Implementation of an Excise Tax in Berkeley, California.

PubMed

Falbe, Jennifer; Rojas, Nadia; Grummon, Anna H; Madsen, Kristine A

2015-11-01

We assessed the short-term ability to increase retail prices of the first US 1-cent-per-ounce excise tax on the distribution of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), which was implemented in March 2015 by Berkeley, California. In 2014 and 2015, we examined pre- to posttax price changes of SSBs and non-SSBs in a variety of retailers in Berkeley and in the comparison cities Oakland and San Francisco, California. We examined price changes by beverage, brand, size, and retailer type. For smaller beverages (≤ 33.8 oz), price increases (cents/oz) in Berkeley relative to those in comparison cities were 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.36, 1.03) for soda, 0.47 (95% CI = 0.08, 0.87) for fruit-flavored beverages, and 0.47 (95% CI = 0.25, 0.69) for SSBs overall. For 2-liter bottles and multipacks of soda, relative price increases were 0.46 (95% CI = 0.03, 0.89) and 0.49 (95% CI = 0.21, 0.77). We observed no relative price increases for nontaxed beverages overall. Approximately 3 months after the tax was implemented, SSB retail prices increased more in Berkeley than in nearby cities, marking a step in the causal pathway between the tax and reduced SSB consumption.

Reducing the width of confidence intervals for the difference between two population means by inverting adaptive tests.

PubMed

O'Gorman, Thomas W

2018-05-01

In the last decade, it has been shown that an adaptive testing method could be used, along with the Robbins-Monro search procedure, to obtain confidence intervals that are often narrower than traditional confidence intervals. However, these confidence interval limits require a great deal of computation and some familiarity with stochastic search methods. We propose a method for estimating the limits of confidence intervals that uses only a few tests of significance. We compare these limits to those obtained by a lengthy Robbins-Monro stochastic search and find that the proposed method is nearly as accurate as the Robbins-Monro search. Adaptive confidence intervals that are produced by the proposed method are often narrower than traditional confidence intervals when the distributions are long-tailed, skewed, or bimodal. Moreover, the proposed method of estimating confidence interval limits is easy to understand, because it is based solely on the p-values from a few tests of significance.

Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data.

PubMed

Jeyarajah, Jenny; Qin, Gengsheng

2017-11-10

In this paper, we propose empirical likelihood methods based on influence function and jackknife techniques for constructing confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data. We conduct a simulation study to compare the coverage probabilities and interval lengths of our proposed confidence intervals with that of the existing normal approximation-based confidence intervals and bootstrap confidence intervals. The proposed methods have better finite-sample performances than existing methods. Finally, we illustrate our proposed methods with a relevant example. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating average annual per cent change in trend analysis

PubMed Central

Clegg, Limin X; Hankey, Benjamin F; Tiwari, Ram; Feuer, Eric J; Edwards, Brenda K

2009-01-01

Trends in incidence or mortality rates over a specified time interval are usually described by the conventional annual per cent change (cAPC), under the assumption of a constant rate of change. When this assumption does not hold over the entire time interval, the trend may be characterized using the annual per cent changes from segmented analysis (sAPCs). This approach assumes that the change in rates is constant over each time partition defined by the transition points, but varies among different time partitions. Different groups (e.g. racial subgroups), however, may have different transition points and thus different time partitions over which they have constant rates of change, making comparison of sAPCs problematic across groups over a common time interval of interest (e.g. the past 10 years). We propose a new measure, the average annual per cent change (AAPC), which uses sAPCs to summarize and compare trends for a specific time period. The advantage of the proposed AAPC is that it takes into account the trend transitions, whereas cAPC does not and can lead to erroneous conclusions. In addition, when the trend is constant over the entire time interval of interest, the AAPC has the advantage of reducing to both cAPC and sAPC. Moreover, because the estimated AAPC is based on the segmented analysis over the entire data series, any selected subinterval within a single time partition will yield the same AAPC estimate—that is it will be equal to the estimated sAPC for that time partition. The cAPC, however, is re-estimated using data only from that selected subinterval; thus, its estimate may be sensitive to the subinterval selected. The AAPC estimation has been incorporated into the segmented regression (free) software Joinpoint, which is used by many registries throughout the world for characterizing trends in cancer rates. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:19856324

Confidence intervals for the population mean tailored to small sample sizes, with applications to survey sampling.

PubMed

Rosenblum, Michael A; Laan, Mark J van der

2009-01-07

The validity of standard confidence intervals constructed in survey sampling is based on the central limit theorem. For small sample sizes, the central limit theorem may give a poor approximation, resulting in confidence intervals that are misleading. We discuss this issue and propose methods for constructing confidence intervals for the population mean tailored to small sample sizes. We present a simple approach for constructing confidence intervals for the population mean based on tail bounds for the sample mean that are correct for all sample sizes. Bernstein's inequality provides one such tail bound. The resulting confidence intervals have guaranteed coverage probability under much weaker assumptions than are required for standard methods. A drawback of this approach, as we show, is that these confidence intervals are often quite wide. In response to this, we present a method for constructing much narrower confidence intervals, which are better suited for practical applications, and that are still more robust than confidence intervals based on standard methods, when dealing with small sample sizes. We show how to extend our approaches to much more general estimation problems than estimating the sample mean. We describe how these methods can be used to obtain more reliable confidence intervals in survey sampling. As a concrete example, we construct confidence intervals using our methods for the number of violent deaths between March 2003 and July 2006 in Iraq, based on data from the study "Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: A cross sectional cluster sample survey," by Burnham et al. (2006).

Constructing Confidence Intervals for Reliability Coefficients Using Central and Noncentral Distributions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weber, Deborah A.

Greater understanding and use of confidence intervals is central to changes in statistical practice (G. Cumming and S. Finch, 2001). Reliability coefficients and confidence intervals for reliability coefficients can be computed using a variety of methods. Estimating confidence intervals includes both central and noncentral distribution approaches.…

Can 3-dimensional power Doppler indices improve the prenatal diagnosis of a potentially morbidly adherent placenta in patients with placenta previa?

PubMed

Haidar, Ziad A; Papanna, Ramesha; Sibai, Baha M; Tatevian, Nina; Viteri, Oscar A; Vowels, Patricia C; Blackwell, Sean C; Moise, Kenneth J

2017-08-01

Traditionally, 2-dimensional ultrasound parameters have been used for the diagnosis of a suspected morbidly adherent placenta previa. More objective techniques have not been well studied yet. The objective of the study was to determine the ability of prenatal 3-dimensional power Doppler analysis of flow and vascular indices to predict the morbidly adherent placenta objectively. A prospective cohort study was performed in women between 28 and 32 gestational weeks with known placenta previa. Patients underwent a two-dimensional gray-scale ultrasound that determined management decisions. 3-Dimensional power Doppler volumes were obtained during the same examination and vascular, flow, and vascular flow indices were calculated after manual tracing of the viewed placenta in the sweep; data were blinded to obstetricians. Morbidly adherent placenta was confirmed by histology. Severe morbidly adherent placenta was defined as increta/percreta on histology, blood loss >2000 mL, and >2 units of PRBC transfused. Sensitivities, specificities, predictive values, and likelihood ratios were calculated. Student t and χ 2 tests, logistic regression, receiver-operating characteristic curves, and intra- and interrater agreements using Kappa statistics were performed. The following results were found: (1) 50 women were studied: 23 had morbidly adherent placenta, of which 12 (52.2%) were severe morbidly adherent placenta; (2) 2-dimensional parameters diagnosed morbidly adherent placenta with a sensitivity of 82.6% (95% confidence interval, 60.4-94.2), a specificity of 88.9% (95% confidence interval, 69.7-97.1), a positive predictive value of 86.3% (95% confidence interval, 64.0-96.4), a negative predictive value of 85.7% (95% confidence interval, 66.4-95.3), a positive likelihood ratio of 7.4 (95% confidence interval, 2.5-21.9), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.2 (95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.48); (3) mean values of the vascular index (32.8 ± 7.4) and the vascular flow index (14.2 ± 3.8) were higher in morbidly adherent placenta (P < .001); (4) area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for the vascular and vascular flow indices were 0.99 and 0.97, respectively; (5) the vascular index ≥21 predicted morbidly adherent placenta with a sensitivity and a specificity of 95% (95% confidence interval, 88.2-96.9) and 91%, respectively (95% confidence interval, 87.5-92.4), 92% positive predictive value (95% confidence interval, 85.5-94.3), 90% negative predictive value (95% confidence interval, 79.9-95.3), positive likelihood ratio of 10.55 (95% confidence interval, 7.06-12.75), and negative likelihood ratio of 0.05 (95% confidence interval, 0.03-0.13); and (6) for the severe morbidly adherent placenta, 2-dimensional ultrasound had a sensitivity of 33.3% (95% confidence interval, 11.3-64.6), a specificity of 81.8% (95% confidence interval, 47.8-96.8), a positive predictive value of 66.7% (95% confidence interval, 24.1-94.1), a negative predictive value of 52.9% (95% confidence interval, 28.5-76.1), a positive likelihood ratio of 1.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.41-8.11), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.52-1.26). A vascular index ≥31 predicted the diagnosis of a severe morbidly adherent placenta with a 100% sensitivity (95% confidence interval, 72-100), a 90% specificity (95% confidence interval, 81.7-93.8), an 88% positive predictive value (95% confidence interval, 55.0-91.3), a 100% negative predictive value (95% confidence interval, 90.9-100), a positive likelihood ratio of 10.0 (95% confidence interval, 3.93-16.13), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0 (95% confidence interval, 0-0.34). Intrarater and interrater agreements were 94% (P < .001) and 93% (P < .001), respectively. The vascular index accurately predicts the morbidly adherent placenta in patients with placenta previa. In addition, 3-dimensional power Doppler vascular and vascular flow indices were more predictive of severe cases of morbidly adherent placenta compared with 2-dimensional ultrasound. This objective technique may limit the variations in diagnosing morbidly adherent placenta because of the subjectivity of 2-dimensional ultrasound interpretations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Confidence intervals for distinguishing ordinal and disordinal interactions in multiple regression.

PubMed

Lee, Sunbok; Lei, Man-Kit; Brody, Gene H

2015-06-01

Distinguishing between ordinal and disordinal interaction in multiple regression is useful in testing many interesting theoretical hypotheses. Because the distinction is made based on the location of a crossover point of 2 simple regression lines, confidence intervals of the crossover point can be used to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interactions. This study examined 2 factors that need to be considered in constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point: (a) the assumption about the sampling distribution of the crossover point, and (b) the possibility of abnormally wide confidence intervals for the crossover point. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare 6 different methods for constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point in terms of the coverage rate, the proportion of true values that fall to the left or right of the confidence intervals, and the average width of the confidence intervals. The methods include the reparameterization, delta, Fieller, basic bootstrap, percentile bootstrap, and bias-corrected accelerated bootstrap methods. The results of our Monte Carlo simulation study suggest that statistical inference using confidence intervals to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interaction requires sample sizes more than 500 to be able to provide sufficiently narrow confidence intervals to identify the location of the crossover point. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Introduction to Sample Size Choice for Confidence Intervals Based on "t" Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Xiaofeng Steven; Loudermilk, Brandon; Simpson, Thomas

2014-01-01

Sample size can be chosen to achieve a specified width in a confidence interval. The probability of obtaining a narrow width given that the confidence interval includes the population parameter is defined as the power of the confidence interval, a concept unfamiliar to many practitioners. This article shows how to utilize the Statistical Analysis…

An Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Both Statistical Estimates and Effect Sizes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Capraro, Mary Margaret

This paper summarizes methods of estimating confidence intervals, including classical intervals and intervals for effect sizes. The recent American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference report suggested that confidence intervals should always be reported, and the fifth edition of the APA "Publication Manual"…

Physics-based and statistical earthquake forecasting in a continental rift zone: the case study of Corinth Gulf (Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segou, Margarita

2016-01-01

I perform a retrospective forecast experiment in the most rapid extensive continental rift worldwide, the western Corinth Gulf (wCG, Greece), aiming to predict shallow seismicity (depth <15 km) with magnitude M ≥ 3.0 for the time period between 1995 and 2013. I compare two short-term earthquake clustering models, based on epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) statistics, four physics-based (CRS) models, combining static stress change estimations and the rate-and-state laboratory law and one hybrid model. For the latter models, I incorporate the stress changes imparted from 31 earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 4.5 at the extended area of wCG. Special attention is given on the 3-D representation of active faults, acting as potential receiver planes for the estimation of static stress changes. I use reference seismicity between 1990 and 1995, corresponding to the learning phase of physics-based models, and I evaluate the forecasts for six months following the 1995 M = 6.4 Aigio earthquake using log-likelihood performance metrics. For the ETAS realizations, I use seismic events with magnitude M ≥ 2.5 within daily update intervals to enhance their predictive power. For assessing the role of background seismicity, I implement a stochastic reconstruction (aka declustering) aiming to answer whether M > 4.5 earthquakes correspond to spontaneous events and identify, if possible, different triggering characteristics between aftershock sequences and swarm-type seismicity periods. I find that: (1) ETAS models outperform CRS models in most time intervals achieving very low rejection ratio RN = 6 per cent, when I test their efficiency to forecast the total number of events inside the study area, (2) the best rejection ratio for CRS models reaches RN = 17 per cent, when I use varying target depths and receiver plane geometry, (3) 75 per cent of the 1995 Aigio aftershocks that occurred within the first month can be explained by static stress changes, (4) highly variable performance on behalf of both statistical and physical models is suggested by large confidence intervals of information gain per earthquake and (5) generic ETAS models can adequately predict the temporal evolution of seismicity during swarms. Furthermore, stochastic reconstruction of seismicity makes possible the identification of different triggering processes between specific seismic crises (2001, 2003-04, 2006-07) and the 1995 aftershock sequence. I find that: (1) seismic events with M ≥ 5.0 are not a part of a preceding earthquake cascade, since they are characterized by high probability being a background event (average Pback > 0.8) and (2) triggered seismicity within swarms is characterized by lower event productivity when compared with the corresponding value during aftershock sequences. I conclude that physics-based models contribute on the determination of the `new-normal' seismicity rate at longer time intervals and that their joint implementation with statistical models is beneficial for future operational forecast systems.

Evaluation of confidence intervals for a steady-state leaky aquifer model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

1999-01-01

The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley [Vecchia, A.V. and Cooley, R.L., Water Resources Research, 1987, 23(7), 1237-1250] was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.

Sample size planning for composite reliability coefficients: accuracy in parameter estimation via narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken

2012-11-01

Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random-effects meta-analysis using generalised heterogeneity statistics: should we use unequal tails?

PubMed

Jackson, Dan; Bowden, Jack

2016-09-07

Confidence intervals for the between study variance are useful in random-effects meta-analyses because they quantify the uncertainty in the corresponding point estimates. Methods for calculating these confidence intervals have been developed that are based on inverting hypothesis tests using generalised heterogeneity statistics. Whilst, under the random effects model, these new methods furnish confidence intervals with the correct coverage, the resulting intervals are usually very wide, making them uninformative. We discuss a simple strategy for obtaining 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance with a markedly reduced width, whilst retaining the nominal coverage probability. Specifically, we consider the possibility of using methods based on generalised heterogeneity statistics with unequal tail probabilities, where the tail probability used to compute the upper bound is greater than 2.5 %. This idea is assessed using four real examples and a variety of simulation studies. Supporting analytical results are also obtained. Our results provide evidence that using unequal tail probabilities can result in shorter 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance. We also show some further results for a real example that illustrates how shorter confidence intervals for the between-study variance can be useful when performing sensitivity analyses for the average effect, which is usually the parameter of primary interest. We conclude that using unequal tail probabilities when computing 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance, when using methods based on generalised heterogeneity statistics, can result in shorter confidence intervals. We suggest that those who find the case for using unequal tail probabilities convincing should use the '1-4 % split', where greater tail probability is allocated to the upper confidence bound. The 'width-optimal' interval that we present deserves further investigation.

Improved confidence intervals when the sample is counted an integer times longer than the blank.

PubMed

Potter, William Edward; Strzelczyk, Jadwiga Jodi

2011-05-01

Past computer solutions for confidence intervals in paired counting are extended to the case where the ratio of the sample count time to the blank count time is taken to be an integer, IRR. Previously, confidence intervals have been named Neyman-Pearson confidence intervals; more correctly they should have been named Neyman confidence intervals or simply confidence intervals. The technique utilized mimics a technique used by Pearson and Hartley to tabulate confidence intervals for the expected value of the discrete Poisson and Binomial distributions. The blank count and the contribution of the sample to the gross count are assumed to be Poisson distributed. The expected value of the blank count, in the sample count time, is assumed known. The net count, OC, is taken to be the gross count minus the product of IRR with the blank count. The probability density function (PDF) for the net count can be determined in a straightforward manner.

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 2. Combined use of hydrogeologic information and calibration data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

Calibration data (observed values corresponding to model-computed values of dependent variables) are incorporated into a general method of computing exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals analogous to the confidence intervals developed in part 1 (Cooley, this issue) for a function of parameters derived from a groundwater flow model. Parameter uncertainty is specified by a distribution of parameters conditioned on the calibration data. This distribution was obtained as a posterior distribution by applying Bayes' theorem to the hydrogeologically derived prior distribution of parameters from part 1 and a distribution of differences between the calibration data and corresponding model-computed dependent variables. Tests show that the new confidence intervals can be much smaller than the intervals of part 1 because the prior parameter variance-covariance structure is altered so that combinations of parameters that give poor model fit to the data are unlikely. The confidence intervals of part 1 and the new confidence intervals can be effectively employed in a sequential method of model construction whereby new information is used to reduce confidence interval widths at each stage.

Graphing within-subjects confidence intervals using SPSS and S-Plus.

PubMed

Wright, Daniel B

2007-02-01

Within-subjects confidence intervals are often appropriate to report and to display. Loftus and Masson (1994) have reported methods to calculate these, and their use is becoming common. In the present article, procedures for calculating within-subjects confidence intervals in SPSS and S-Plus are presented (an R version is on the accompanying Web site). The procedure in S-Plus allows the user to report the bias corrected and adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals as well as the standard confidence intervals based on traditional methods. The presented code can be easily altered to fit the individual user's needs.

The search for failed supernovae with the Large Binocular Telescope: constraints from 7 yr of data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, S. M.; Kochanek, C. S.; Gerke, J. R.; Stanek, K. Z.

2017-08-01

We report updated results for the first 7 yr of our programme to monitor 27 galaxies within 10 Mpc using the Large Binocular Telescope to search for failed supernovae (SNe) - core collapses of massive stars that form black holes without luminous SNe. In the new data, we identify no new compelling candidates and confirm the existing candidate. Given the six successful core-collapse SNe in the sample and one likely failed SN, the implied fraction of core collapses that result in failed SNe is f=0.14^{+0.33}_{-0.10} at 90 per cent confidence. If the current candidate is a failed SN, the fraction of failed SN naturally explains the missing high-mass red supergiants SN progenitors and the black hole mass function. If the current candidate is ultimately rejected, the data imply a 90 per cent confidence upper limit on the failed SN fraction of f < 0.35.

Myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging using sliding-window conjugate-gradient highly constrained back-projection reconstruction for detection of coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Ma, Heng; Yang, Jun; Liu, Jing; Ge, Lan; An, Jing; Tang, Qing; Li, Han; Zhang, Yu; Chen, David; Wang, Yong; Liu, Jiabin; Liang, Zhigang; Lin, Kai; Jin, Lixin; Bi, Xiaoming; Li, Kuncheng; Li, Debiao

2012-04-15

Myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with sliding-window conjugate-gradient highly constrained back-projection reconstruction (SW-CG-HYPR) allows whole left ventricular coverage, improved temporal and spatial resolution and signal/noise ratio, and reduced cardiac motion-related image artifacts. The accuracy of this technique for detecting coronary artery disease (CAD) has not been determined in a large number of patients. We prospectively evaluated the diagnostic performance of myocardial perfusion MRI with SW-CG-HYPR in patients with suspected CAD. A total of 50 consecutive patients who were scheduled for coronary angiography with suspected CAD underwent myocardial perfusion MRI with SW-CG-HYPR at 3.0 T. The perfusion defects were interpreted qualitatively by 2 blinded observers and were correlated with x-ray angiographic stenoses ≥50%. The prevalence of CAD was 56%. In the per-patient analysis, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of SW-CG-HYPR was 96% (95% confidence interval 82% to 100%), 82% (95% confidence interval 60% to 95%), 87% (95% confidence interval 70% to 96%), 95% (95% confidence interval 74% to100%), and 90% (95% confidence interval 82% to 98%), respectively. In the per-vessel analysis, the corresponding values were 98% (95% confidence interval 91% to 100%), 89% (95% confidence interval 80% to 94%), 86% (95% confidence interval 76% to 93%), 99% (95% confidence interval 93% to 100%), and 93% (95% confidence interval 89% to 97%), respectively. In conclusion, myocardial perfusion MRI using SW-CG-HYPR allows whole left ventricular coverage and high resolution and has high diagnostic accuracy in patients with suspected CAD. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Curran-Everett, Douglas

2009-01-01

Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…

A comparative study between 10 per cent sulfur ointment and 0.3 per cent gamma benzene hexachloride gel in the treatment of scabies in children.

PubMed

Singalavanija, Srisupalak; Limpongsanurak, Wanida; Soponsakunkul, Siritorn

2003-08-01

Scabies is a common contagious skin disease in children. Treatment of scabies in infants and children is the subject of worldwide concern because of risk and benefit of the variety of scabicides. To compare the efficacy of 10 per cent sulfur ointment and 0.3 per cent gamma benzene hexachloride gel for the treatment of scabies in children. A randomized investigator blind study was conducted to compare the efficacy of 10 per cent sulfur ointment and 0.3 per cent gamma benzene hexachloride (GBH) for the treatment of scabies in children at Queen Sirikit National Institute of Child Health from December 1999 to May 2000. Diagnosis was made by the clinical signs of excoriated papules in the classic distribution with nocturnal pruritus and family history of similar symptoms. Diagnosis for all patients was confirmed by positive skin scrapings for eggs, larva, mites or fecal pellets by light microscopy. Patients were followed-up at intervals of 2 and 4 weeks. One hundred children with an age range from 6 months to 13 years were randomized into 2 groups, 10 per cent sulfur group (50 cases) and 0.3 per cent GBH (50 cases). Age, sex, history of contact cases and clinical manifestations were not statistically different between the two groups. After 4 weeks of treatment, there were no statistical differences between the two groups in patients assessed cured (92% vs 94%), clinical cure (92% vs 91%) and parasitic cure (83% vs 84%). The adverse effect of foul odor in the sulfur group was more common than in the GBH group (p < 0.05). 10 per cent sulfur ointment is as safe and efficacious as 0.3 per cent GBH for the treatment of scabies in children.

Freedom from equine infectious anaemia virus infection in Spanish Purebred horses

PubMed Central

Cruz, Fatima; Fores, Paloma; Ireland, Joanne; Moreno, Miguel A.; Newton, Richard

2015-01-01

Introduction No cases of equine infectious anaemia (EIA) have been reported in Spain since 1983. Factors that could increase the risk of reintroducing equine infectious anaemia virus (EIAV) into Spain include the recent occurrence of the disease in Europe and the absence of compulsory serological testing before importation into Spain. Aims and objectives Given the importance of the Spanish Purebred (SP) horse breeding industry in Spain, the aim of this cross-sectional study was to provide evidence of freedom from EIAV in SP stud farms in Central Spain. Materials and methods Serum samples from 555 SP horses, collected between September 2011 and November 2013, were tested using a commercially available EIAV ELISA with a published sensitivity of 100 per cent. Results All 555 samples were negative for antibody to EIAV, providing evidence of a true EIAV seroprevalence between 0 per cent and 0.53 per cent (95% CIs of the sensitivity and specificity of the ELISA technique used Q10 were 100 per cent and 99.3 per cent, respectively) among the SP breeding population in Central Spain. Conclusions These findings should serve to increase confidence when exporting SP horses to other countries. PMID:26392894

Using gamification to develop academic writing skills in dental undergraduate students.

PubMed

El Tantawi, Maha; Sadaf, Shazia; AlHumaid, Jehan

2018-02-01

To assess the satisfaction of first-year dental students with gamification and its effect on perceived and actual improvement of academic writing. Two first-year classes of dental undergraduate students were recruited for the study which extended over 4 months and ended in January 2015. A pre-intervention assessment of students' academic writing skills was performed using criteria to evaluate writing. The same criteria were used to evaluate the final writing assignment after the intervention. Students' satisfaction with game aspects was assessed. The per cent change in writing score was regressed on scores of satisfaction with game aspects controlling for gender. Perceived improvement in writing was also assessed. Data from 87 (94.6%) students were available for analysis. Students' overall satisfaction with the gamified experience was modest [mean (SD) = 5.9 (2.1)] and so was their overall perception of improvement in writing [mean (SD) = 6.0 (2.2)]. The per cent score of the first assignment was 35.6 which improved to 80 in the last assignment. Satisfaction with playing the game was significantly associated with higher percentage of improvement in actual writing skills [regression coefficient (95% confidence interval) = 21.1 (1.9, 40.2)]. Using gamification in an obligatory course for first-year dental students was associated with an improvement in academic writing skills although students' satisfaction with game aspects was modest and their willingness to use gamification in future courses was minimal. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The dynamics of the Local Group as a probe of dark energy and modified gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlesi, Edoardo; Mota, David F.; Winther, Hans A.

2017-04-01

In this work, we study the dynamics of the Local Group (LG) within the context of cosmological models beyond General Relativity (GR). Using observable kinematic quantities to identify candidate pairs, we build up samples of simulated LG-like objects drawing from f(R), symmetron, Dvali, Gabadadze & Porrati and quintessence N-body simulations together with their Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) counterparts featuring the same initial random phase realizations. The variables and intervals used to define LG-like objects are referred to as LG model; different models are used throughout this work and adapted to study their dynamical and kinematic properties. The aim is to determine how well the observed LG dynamics can be reproduced within cosmological theories beyond GR, We compute kinematic properties of samples drawn from alternative theories and ΛCDM and compare them to actual observations of the LG mass, velocity and position. As a consequence of the additional pull, pairwise tangential and radial velocities are enhanced in modified gravity and coupled dark energy with respect to ΛCDM inducing significant changes to the total angular momentum and energy of the LG. For example, in models such as f(R) and the symmetron this increase can be as large as 60 per cent, peaking well outside of the 95 per cent confidence region allowed by the data. This shows how simple considerations about the LG dynamics can lead to clear small-scale observational signatures for alternative scenarios, without the need of expensive high-resolution simulations.

Comparison of haemoglobin estimates using direct & indirect cyanmethaemoglobin methods.

PubMed

Bansal, Priyanka Gupta; Toteja, Gurudayal Singh; Bhatia, Neena; Gupta, Sanjeev; Kaur, Manpreet; Adhikari, Tulsi; Garg, Ashok Kumar

2016-10-01

Estimation of haemoglobin is the most widely used method to assess anaemia. Although direct cyanmethaemoglobin method is the recommended method for estimation of haemoglobin, but it may not be feasible under field conditions. Hence, the present study was undertaken to compare indirect cyanmethaemoglobin method against the conventional direct method for haemoglobin estimation. Haemoglobin levels were estimated for 888 adolescent girls aged 11-18 yr residing in an urban slum in Delhi by both direct and indirect cyanmethaemoglobin methods, and the results were compared. The mean haemoglobin levels for 888 whole blood samples estimated by direct and indirect cyanmethaemoglobin method were 116.1 ± 12.7 and 110.5 ± 12.5 g/l, respectively, with a mean difference of 5.67 g/l (95% confidence interval: 5.45 to 5.90, P<0.001); which is equivalent to 0.567 g%. The prevalence of anaemia was reported as 59.6 and 78.2 per cent by direct and indirect methods, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity of indirect cyanmethaemoglobin method were 99.2 and 56.4 per cent, respectively. Using regression analysis, prediction equation was developed for indirect haemoglobin values. The present findings revealed that indirect cyanmethaemoglobin method overestimated the prevalence of anaemia as compared to the direct method. However, if a correction factor is applied, indirect method could be successfully used for estimating true haemoglobin level. More studies should be undertaken to establish agreement and correction factor between direct and indirect cyanmethaemoglobin methods.

A hip wear simulator with 100 test stations.

PubMed

Saikko, V

2005-09-01

A novel high-capacity hip wear simulator of the pin-on-disc type was designed, built, and validated. This so-called Super-CTPOD (circularly translating pin-on-disc) device has as many as 100 separate test stations, being an advanced version of the previously validated 12-station CTPOD. A validity test was done so that in all stations the specimens and the test conditions were as similar as possible. Hence, for the first time in this field, an adequate number of similar tests was done for a proper statistical analysis of wear data. The pins were conventional, gamma-sterilized ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene, and the discs were polished CoCr. The lubricant was diluted calf serum and the test length 3 million cycles. In the course of the test, the pins became highly polished, whereas the discs remained practically unchanged. The majority of the polyethylene wear particles were rounded, with a mean diameter of 0.25 microm. The 100 wear factor values computed from the 100 steady state wear rate values of the pins were normally distributed, the mean +/- 95 per cent confidence interval being 1.63 +/- 0.017 x 10(-6) mm3 /N m. The standard deviation was 5.4 per cent of the mean. There were no outliers. The wear mechanisms and the wear factor agreed well with clinical findings. Altogether, the Super-CTPOD test system was shown to be a unique combination of validity, low variation, capacity, efficiency, reliability, productivity, economy, ease of operation, and compact size.

Improved Bayesian Infrasonic Source Localization for regional infrasound

DOE PAGES

Blom, Philip S.; Marcillo, Omar; Arrowsmith, Stephen J.

2015-10-20

The Bayesian Infrasonic Source Localization (BISL) methodology is examined and simplified providing a generalized method of estimating the source location and time for an infrasonic event and the mathematical framework is used therein. The likelihood function describing an infrasonic detection used in BISL has been redefined to include the von Mises distribution developed in directional statistics and propagation-based, physically derived celerity-range and azimuth deviation models. Frameworks for constructing propagation-based celerity-range and azimuth deviation statistics are presented to demonstrate how stochastic propagation modelling methods can be used to improve the precision and accuracy of the posterior probability density function describing themore » source localization. Infrasonic signals recorded at a number of arrays in the western United States produced by rocket motor detonations at the Utah Test and Training Range are used to demonstrate the application of the new mathematical framework and to quantify the improvement obtained by using the stochastic propagation modelling methods. Moreover, using propagation-based priors, the spatial and temporal confidence bounds of the source decreased by more than 40 per cent in all cases and by as much as 80 per cent in one case. Further, the accuracy of the estimates remained high, keeping the ground truth within the 99 per cent confidence bounds for all cases.« less

Using an R Shiny to Enhance the Learning Experience of Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Immanuel James; Williams, Kelley Kim

2018-01-01

Many students find understanding confidence intervals difficult, especially because of the amalgamation of concepts such as confidence levels, standard error, point estimates and sample sizes. An R Shiny application was created to assist the learning process of confidence intervals using graphics and data from the US National Basketball…

Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies

PubMed Central

Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

2016-01-01

Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes. PMID:27478491

Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies.

PubMed

Erdoğan, Semra; Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

2016-01-01

Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes.

Modified Confidence Intervals for the Mean of an Autoregressive Process.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-08-01

Validity of the method 45 3.6 Theorem 47 4 Derivation of corrections 48 Introduction 48 The zero order pivot 50 4.1 Algorithm 50 CONTENTS The first...of standard confidence intervals. There are several standard methods of setting confidence intervals in simulations, including the regener- ative... method , batch means, and time series methods . We-will focus-s on improved confidence intervals for the mean of an autoregressive process, and as such our

Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number.

PubMed

Fragkos, Konstantinos C; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator.

Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number

PubMed Central

Fragkos, Konstantinos C.; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C.

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator. PMID:27437470

Diuretic or sodium-restricted diet for obstructive sleep apnea-a randomized trial.

PubMed

Fiori, Cintia Zappe; Martinez, Denis; Montanari, Carolina Caruccio; Lopez, Pedro; Camargo, Rodrigo; Sezerá, Lauren; Gonçalves, Sandro Cadaval; Fuchs, Flavio Danni

2018-04-01

Interventions that decrease leg fluid retention reduce obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) severity in nonrandomized experiments. We aimed to investigate in a randomized trial the effect of interventions that reduce fluid volume on OSA severity. Men diagnosed with severe OSA were randomized to receive daily spironolactone 100 mg + furosemide 20 mg or nutritional counseling to sodium-restricted diet plus placebo pill or placebo pill. All participants underwent home sleep apnea testing at baseline and after 1 week follow-up. The change in apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) was the primary outcome. The study included 54 participants and all were assessed at follow-up. The average baseline value of the AHI was similar among groups and from baseline to follow-up the AHI reduced 14.4 per cent (δ value -7.3 events per hour; 95% confidence interval, -13.8 to -0.9) in the diuretic group, 22.3 per cent (-10.7; 95% CI, -15.6 to -5.7) in the diet group, and 0.8 per cent (0.4; 95% CI, -2.5 to 3.2) in the placebo group (p = .001 for time × group interaction). None of the patients had their AHI returned to normal. The reduction in the total body water was 2.2 ± 2.2 L in the diuretic group (p < .001) and 1.0 ± 1.6 l in the low salt diet group (p = .002). Sleepiness and neck circumference were significantly reduced only in the diet group (p = .007 and p < .001 for the time × group interactions, respectively). Interventions to reduce bodily fluid content in men with severe OSA promoted a limited decrease of apnea frequency. This finding suggests that rostral fluid displacement affects only partially the OSA severity and/or that other factors prevail in determining pharyngeal collapsibility. Sodium-Restricted Diet and Diuretic in the Treatment of Severe Sleep Apnea (DESALT), https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01945801 ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT01945801.

Trends and racial and ethnic disparities in the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Northern California: 1996-2014.

PubMed

Peng, Tiffany Y; Ehrlich, Samantha F; Crites, Yvonne; Kitzmiller, John L; Kuzniewicz, Michael W; Hedderson, Monique M; Ferrara, Assiamira

2017-02-01

Despite concern for adverse perinatal outcomes in women with diabetes mellitus before pregnancy, recent data on the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in the United States are lacking. The purpose of this study was to estimate changes in the prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus (all types) and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus and to estimate whether changes varied by race-ethnicity from 1996-2014. We conducted a cohort study among 655,428 pregnancies at a Northern California integrated health delivery system from 1996-2014. Logistic regression analyses provided estimates of prevalence and trends. The age-adjusted prevalence (per 100 deliveries) of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 (from 0.58 [95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.63] to 1.06 [95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.12]; P trend <.0001). Significant increases occurred in all racial-ethnic groups; the largest relative increase was among Hispanic women (121.8% [95% confidence interval, 84.4-166.7]); the smallest relative increase was among non-Hispanic white women (49.6% [95% confidence interval, 27.5-75.4]). The age-adjusted prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 0.14 (95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.16) to 0.23 (95% confidence interval, 0.21-0.27; P trend <.0001) and from 0.42 (95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.46) to 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.83; P trend <.0001), respectively. The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 1 diabetes mellitus was in non-Hispanic white women (118.4% [95% confidence interval, 70.0-180.5]), who had the lowest increases in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (13.6% [95% confidence interval, -8.0 to 40.1]). The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus was in Hispanic women (125.2% [95% confidence interval, 84.8-174.4]), followed by African American women (102.0% [95% confidence interval, 38.3-194.3]) and Asian women (93.3% [95% confidence interval, 48.9-150.9]). The prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 and racial-ethnic disparities were observed, possibly because of differing prevalence of maternal obesity. Targeted prevention efforts, preconception care, and disease management strategies are needed to reduce the burden of diabetes mellitus and its sequelae. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Experimental investigation of geologically produced antineutrinos with KamLAND.

PubMed

Araki, T; Enomoto, S; Furuno, K; Gando, Y; Ichimura, K; Ikeda, H; Inoue, K; Kishimoto, Y; Koga, M; Koseki, Y; Maeda, T; Mitsui, T; Motoki, M; Nakajima, K; Ogawa, H; Ogawa, M; Owada, K; Ricol, J-S; Shimizu, I; Shirai, J; Suekane, F; Suzuki, A; Tada, K; Takeuchi, S; Tamae, K; Tsuda, Y; Watanabe, H; Busenitz, J; Classen, T; Djurcic, Z; Keefer, G; Leonard, D; Piepke, A; Yakushev, E; Berger, B E; Chan, Y D; Decowski, M P; Dwyer, D A; Freedman, S J; Fujikawa, B K; Goldman, J; Gray, F; Heeger, K M; Hsu, L; Lesko, K T; Luk, K-B; Murayama, H; O'Donnell, T; Poon, A W P; Steiner, H M; Winslow, L A; Mauger, C; McKeown, R D; Vogel, P; Lane, C E; Miletic, T; Guillian, G; Learned, J G; Maricic, J; Matsuno, S; Pakvasa, S; Horton-Smith, G A; Dazeley, S; Hatakeyama, S; Rojas, A; Svoboda, R; Dieterle, B D; Detwiler, J; Gratta, G; Ishii, K; Tolich, N; Uchida, Y; Batygov, M; Bugg, W; Efremenko, Y; Kamyshkov, Y; Kozlov, A; Nakamura, Y; Karwowski, H J; Markoff, D M; Nakamura, K; Rohm, R M; Tornow, W; Wendell, R; Chen, M-J; Wang, Y-F; Piquemal, F

2005-07-28

The detection of electron antineutrinos produced by natural radioactivity in the Earth could yield important geophysical information. The Kamioka liquid scintillator antineutrino detector (KamLAND) has the sensitivity to detect electron antineutrinos produced by the decay of 238U and 232Th within the Earth. Earth composition models suggest that the radiogenic power from these isotope decays is 16 TW, approximately half of the total measured heat dissipation rate from the Earth. Here we present results from a search for geoneutrinos with KamLAND. Assuming a Th/U mass concentration ratio of 3.9, the 90 per cent confidence interval for the total number of geoneutrinos detected is 4.5 to 54.2. This result is consistent with the central value of 19 predicted by geophysical models. Although our present data have limited statistical power, they nevertheless provide by direct means an upper limit (60 TW) for the radiogenic power of U and Th in the Earth, a quantity that is currently poorly constrained.

More accurate, calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals for correlating two autocorrelated climate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olafsdottir, Kristin B.; Mudelsee, Manfred

2013-04-01

Estimation of the Pearson's correlation coefficient between two time series to evaluate the influences of one time depended variable on another is one of the most often used statistical method in climate sciences. Various methods are used to estimate confidence interval to support the correlation point estimate. Many of them make strong mathematical assumptions regarding distributional shape and serial correlation, which are rarely met. More robust statistical methods are needed to increase the accuracy of the confidence intervals. Bootstrap confidence intervals are estimated in the Fortran 90 program PearsonT (Mudelsee, 2003), where the main intention was to get an accurate confidence interval for correlation coefficient between two time series by taking the serial dependence of the process that generated the data into account. However, Monte Carlo experiments show that the coverage accuracy for smaller data sizes can be improved. Here we adapt the PearsonT program into a new version called PearsonT3, by calibrating the confidence interval to increase the coverage accuracy. Calibration is a bootstrap resampling technique, which basically performs a second bootstrap loop or resamples from the bootstrap resamples. It offers, like the non-calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals, robustness against the data distribution. Pairwise moving block bootstrap is used to preserve the serial correlation of both time series. The calibration is applied to standard error based bootstrap Student's t confidence intervals. The performances of the calibrated confidence intervals are examined with Monte Carlo simulations, and compared with the performances of confidence intervals without calibration, that is, PearsonT. The coverage accuracy is evidently better for the calibrated confidence intervals where the coverage error is acceptably small (i.e., within a few percentage points) already for data sizes as small as 20. One form of climate time series is output from numerical models which simulate the climate system. The method is applied to model data from the high resolution ocean model, INALT01 where the relationship between the Agulhas Leakage and the North Brazil Current is evaluated. Preliminary results show significant correlation between the two variables when there is 10 year lag between them, which is more or less the time that takes the Agulhas Leakage water to reach the North Brazil Current. Mudelsee, M., 2003. Estimating Pearson's correlation coefficient with bootstrap confidence interval from serially dependent time series. Mathematical Geology 35, 651-665.

The P Value Problem in Otolaryngology: Shifting to Effect Sizes and Confidence Intervals.

PubMed

Vila, Peter M; Townsend, Melanie Elizabeth; Bhatt, Neel K; Kao, W Katherine; Sinha, Parul; Neely, J Gail

2017-06-01

There is a lack of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals in the current biomedical literature. The objective of this article is to present a discussion of the recent paradigm shift encouraging the use of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals. Although P values help to inform us about whether an effect exists due to chance, effect sizes inform us about the magnitude of the effect (clinical significance), and confidence intervals inform us about the range of plausible estimates for the general population mean (precision). Reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals is a necessary addition to the biomedical literature, and these concepts are reviewed in this article.

Long term results of surgery for non-acute anteromedial rotatory instability of the knee.

PubMed

Oretorp, N; Gillquist, J; Liljedahl, S O

1979-06-01

Seventy-eight patients treated by extraarticular reconstruction including pes anserinus transfer for anteromedial rotatory instability of the knee were reinvestigated 16--47 months (mean 28) after operation. Function before and after operation was assessed by means of a knee rating score. Of these patients, 94 per cent showed a higher score after operation. Twenty per cent showed full recovery with no limitation of knee function whatsoever. The follow-up score was higher with preserved medial meniscus function than when this structure had been removed. When not initially torn, the medial meniscus tended to become involved with time. Mild laxity in extension, possibly indicative of a posterior cruciate injury previously underestimated or not observed, was found in 15 per cent of the patients. No correlation was found between late knee function and the interval between injury and operation or the interval between operation and follow-up examination. The long term results were good. Extraarticular reconstruction is thus indicated in cases of chronic rotatory instability of the anteromedial type. Routine meniscectomy is not recommended in these patients, however. Signs possibly indicating posterior cruciate ligament involvement should be carefully looked for, as even minor posterior cruciate injury, easily overlooked, may influence the late results.

Long-term outcome of 56 dogs with nasal tumours treated with four doses of radiation at intervals of seven days.

PubMed

Mellanby, R J; Stevenson, R K; Herrtage, M E; White, R A S; Dobson, J M

2002-08-31

A retrospective study was undertaken on 56 dogs treated for nasal tumours by megavoltage radiotherapy with a hypofractionated schedule consisting of four doses of 9 Gy given at intervals of seven days. The dogs were followed until they died or were euthanased. The clinical signs had improved in 53 of the 56 dogs by the end of the treatment schedule. Mild acute radiation side effects were observed in the majority of the dogs but late radiation side effects were rare. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed a median survival time after the final dose of radiation of 212 days. The one- and two-year survival rates were 45 per cent and 15 per cent. Fifty of the dogs were euthanased because the initial clinical signs recurred.

Confidence Intervals for Error Rates Observed in Coded Communications Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamkins, J.

2015-05-01

We present methods to compute confidence intervals for the codeword error rate (CWER) and bit error rate (BER) of a coded communications link. We review several methods to compute exact and approximate confidence intervals for the CWER, and specifically consider the situation in which the true CWER is so low that only a handful, if any, codeword errors are able to be simulated. In doing so, we answer the question of how long an error-free simulation must be run in order to certify that a given CWER requirement is met with a given level of confidence, and discuss the bias introduced by aborting a simulation after observing the first codeword error. Next, we turn to the lesser studied problem of determining confidence intervals for the BER of coded systems. Since bit errors in systems that use coding or higher-order modulation do not occur independently, blind application of a method that assumes independence leads to inappropriately narrow confidence intervals. We present a new method to compute the confidence interval properly, using the first and second sample moments of the number of bit errors per codeword. This is the first method we know of to compute a confidence interval for the BER of a coded or higher-order modulation system.

Investigation of a simplified artificial lighting programme to improve the fertility of sows in commercial piggeries.

PubMed

Tast, A; Hälli, O; Virolainen, J V; Oravainen, J; Heinonen, M; Peltoniemi, O A T

2005-05-28

Two artificial lighting regimens were studied in a commercial unit of 800 sows. The aim was to develop a simplified lighting regimen to overdrive the effects of season on reproduction. A long-day group had a constant 16 hours light and eight hours dark photoperiod in all units during a production cycle. A short-day group had eight hours of light and 16 hours darkness in a farrowing unit for four weeks and in a mating unit for four weeks. After one month of pregnancy the short-day group was transferred to 16 hours light and eight hours dark for the rest of the dry-sow period. Production data were collected for eight months, and the farrowing rate, weaning to oestrus interval, culling rate for fertility problems and the number of live-born piglets were analysed. Seasonal infertility, which had previously affected the herd, was not detected in either group during the follow-up period. The farrowing rate was 90 per cent for both groups. The median weaning to oestrus interval was five days in both lighting regimens with ranges from four to 74 days in the short-day group and three to 55 days in the long-day group. The long-day programme had a positive effect on the weaning to oestrus interval. When the sows were classified as either "normal", with a weaning to oestrus interval of up to 10 days, or "problem" animals, with a weaning to oestrus interval of over 10 days, the short-day programme also had a positive effect. The culling rate for fertility problems was 2.4 per cent for the short-day group and 3.2 per cent for the long-day group (P=0.027). The only significant predictor for the number of live-born piglets was parity (P=0.027).

Mortality of emergency abdominal surgery in high-, middle- and low-income countries.

PubMed

2016-07-01

Surgical mortality data are collected routinely in high-income countries, yet virtually no low- or middle-income countries have outcome surveillance in place. The aim was prospectively to collect worldwide mortality data following emergency abdominal surgery, comparing findings across countries with a low, middle or high Human Development Index (HDI). This was a prospective, multicentre, cohort study. Self-selected hospitals performing emergency surgery submitted prespecified data for consecutive patients from at least one 2-week interval during July to December 2014. Postoperative mortality was analysed by hierarchical multivariable logistic regression. Data were obtained for 10 745 patients from 357 centres in 58 countries; 6538 were from high-, 2889 from middle- and 1318 from low-HDI settings. The overall mortality rate was 1·6 per cent at 24 h (high 1·1 per cent, middle 1·9 per cent, low 3·4 per cent; P < 0·001), increasing to 5·4 per cent by 30 days (high 4·5 per cent, middle 6·0 per cent, low 8·6 per cent; P < 0·001). Of the 578 patients who died, 404 (69·9 per cent) did so between 24 h and 30 days following surgery (high 74·2 per cent, middle 68·8 per cent, low 60·5 per cent). After adjustment, 30-day mortality remained higher in middle-income (odds ratio (OR) 2·78, 95 per cent c.i. 1·84 to 4·20) and low-income (OR 2·97, 1·84 to 4·81) countries. Surgical safety checklist use was less frequent in low- and middle-income countries, but when used was associated with reduced mortality at 30 days. Mortality is three times higher in low- compared with high-HDI countries even when adjusted for prognostic factors. Patient safety factors may have an important role. NCT02179112 (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov). © 2016 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Developing a regional scale approach for modelling the impacts of fertiliser regime on N2O emissions in Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmermann, Jesko; Jones, Michael

2016-04-01

Agriculture can be significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, this is especially prevalent in Ireland where the agricultural sector accounts for a third of total emissions. The high emissions are linked to both the importance of agriculture in the Irish economy and the focus on dairy and beef production. In order to reduce emissions three main categories are explored: (1) reduction of methane emissions from cattle, (2) reduction of nitrous oxide emissions from fertilisation, and (3) fostering the carbon sequestration potential of soils. The presented research focuses on the latter two categories, especially changes in fertiliser amount and composition. Soil properties and climate conditions measured at the four experimental sites (two silage and two spring barley) were used to parameterise four biogeochemical models (DayCent, ECOSSE, DNDC 9.4, and DNDC 9.5). All sites had a range of different fertiliser regimes applied. This included changes in amount (0 to 500 kg N/ha on grassland and 0 to 200 kg N/ha on arable fields), fertiliser type (calcium ammonium nitrate and urea), and added inhibitors (the nitrification inhibitor DCD, and the urease inhibitor Agrotain). Overall, 20 different treatments were applied to the grassland sites, and 17 to the arable sites. Nitrous oxide emissions, measured in 2013 and 2014 at all sites using closed chambers, were made available to validate model results for these emissions. To assess model performance for the daily measurements, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was compared to the measured 95% confidence interval of the measured data (RMSE95). Bias was tested comparing the relative error (RE) the 95 % confidence interval of the relative error (RE95). Preliminary results show mixed model performance, depending on the model, site, and the fertiliser regime. However, with the exception of urea fertilisation and added inhibitors, all scenarios were reproduced by at least one model with no statistically significant total error (RMSE < RMSE95) or bias (RE< RE95). A general trend observed was that model performance declined with increased fertilisation rates. Overall, DayCent showed the best performance, however it does not provide the possibility to model the addition urease inhibitors. The results suggest that modelling changes in fertiliser regime on a large scale may require a multi-model approach to assure best performance. Ultimately, the research aims to develop a GIS based platform to apply such an approach on a regional scale.

Uncovering the identities of compact objects in high-mass X-ray binaries and gamma-ray binaries by astrometric measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamaguchi, M. S.; Yano, T.; Gouda, N.

2018-03-01

We develop a method for identifying a compact object in binary systems with astrometric measurements and apply it to some binaries. Compact objects in some high-mass X-ray binaries and gamma-ray binaries are unknown, which is responsible for the fact that emission mechanisms in such systems have not yet confirmed. The accurate estimate of the mass of the compact object allows us to identify the compact object in such systems. Astrometric measurements are expected to enable us to estimate the masses of the compact objects in the binary systems via a determination of a binary orbit. We aim to evaluate the possibility of the identification of the compact objects for some binary systems. We then calculate probabilities that the compact object is correctly identified with astrometric observation (= confidence level) by taking into account a dependence of the orbital shape on orbital parameters and distributions of masses of white dwarfs, neutron stars and black holes. We find that the astrometric measurements with the precision of 70 μas for γ Cas allow us to identify the compact object at 99 per cent confidence level if the compact object is a white dwarf with 0.6 M⊙. In addition, we can identify the compact object with the precision of 10 μas at 97 per cent or larger confidence level for LS I +61° 303 and 99 per cent or larger for HESS J0632+057. These results imply that the astrometric measurements with the 10 μas precision level can realize the identification of compact objects for γ Cas, LS I +61° 303, and HESS J0632+057.

Simulating the effect of non-linear mode coupling in cosmological parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiessling, A.; Taylor, A. N.; Heavens, A. F.

2011-09-01

Fisher Information Matrix methods are commonly used in cosmology to estimate the accuracy that cosmological parameters can be measured with a given experiment and to optimize the design of experiments. However, the standard approach usually assumes both data and parameter estimates are Gaussian-distributed. Further, for survey forecasts and optimization it is usually assumed that the power-spectrum covariance matrix is diagonal in Fourier space. However, in the low-redshift Universe, non-linear mode coupling will tend to correlate small-scale power, moving information from lower to higher order moments of the field. This movement of information will change the predictions of cosmological parameter accuracy. In this paper we quantify this loss of information by comparing naïve Gaussian Fisher matrix forecasts with a maximum likelihood parameter estimation analysis of a suite of mock weak lensing catalogues derived from N-body simulations, based on the SUNGLASS pipeline, for a 2D and tomographic shear analysis of a Euclid-like survey. In both cases, we find that the 68 per cent confidence area of the Ωm-σ8 plane increases by a factor of 5. However, the marginal errors increase by just 20-40 per cent. We propose a new method to model the effects of non-linear shear-power mode coupling in the Fisher matrix by approximating the shear-power distribution as a multivariate Gaussian with a covariance matrix derived from the mock weak lensing survey. We find that this approximation can reproduce the 68 per cent confidence regions of the full maximum likelihood analysis in the Ωm-σ8 plane to high accuracy for both 2D and tomographic weak lensing surveys. Finally, we perform a multiparameter analysis of Ωm, σ8, h, ns, w0 and wa to compare the Gaussian and non-linear mode-coupled Fisher matrix contours. The 6D volume of the 1σ error contours for the non-linear Fisher analysis is a factor of 3 larger than for the Gaussian case, and the shape of the 68 per cent confidence volume is modified. We propose that future Fisher matrix estimates of cosmological parameter accuracies should include mode-coupling effects.

Minimax confidence intervals in geomagnetism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stark, Philip B.

1992-01-01

The present paper uses theory of Donoho (1989) to find lower bounds on the lengths of optimally short fixed-length confidence intervals (minimax confidence intervals) for Gauss coefficients of the field of degree 1-12 using the heat flow constraint. The bounds on optimal minimax intervals are about 40 percent shorter than Backus' intervals: no procedure for producing fixed-length confidence intervals, linear or nonlinear, can give intervals shorter than about 60 percent the length of Backus' in this problem. While both methods rigorously account for the fact that core field models are infinite-dimensional, the application of the techniques to the geomagnetic problem involves approximations and counterfactual assumptions about the data errors, and so these results are likely to be extremely optimistic estimates of the actual uncertainty in Gauss coefficients.

Using Screencast Videos to Enhance Undergraduate Students' Statistical Reasoning about Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strazzeri, Kenneth Charles

2013-01-01

The purposes of this study were to investigate (a) undergraduate students' reasoning about the concepts of confidence intervals (b) undergraduate students' interactions with "well-designed" screencast videos on sampling distributions and confidence intervals, and (c) how screencast videos improve undergraduate students' reasoning ability…

A pilot programme of clinical practice improvement for future consultant doctors.

PubMed

Oates, Kim; Vinters, Cathy; Cass-Verco, John; Fletcher, Mandy; Kaur, Narinder; Mherekumombe, Martha; Tang, Alice

2017-04-01

To provide junior doctors with tools to improve patient care in their workplace, a partnership was developed between the Clinical Excellence Commission (CEC) and the Royal Australasian College of Physicians (RACP) to help trainee consultants carry out clinical practice improvement (CPI) projects during clinical work. Based on a patient-care problem they wished to resolve, trainee consultants attended a 2-day face-to-face workshop to learn quality-improvement methods, describe their proposals and refine them using CPI methodology. They were provided with continuing supervision, participated in a mid-point review and were responsible for driving their projects. Trainee consultants attended a 2-day face-to-face workshop to learn quality-improvement methods RESULTS: Examples of five projects are: reducing mislabelled specimens leaving an emergency department, from 82 in the baseline period to 18 following the intervention; creating a multidisciplinary team to reduce hypoglycaemic episodes on a diabetic ward, from 23 episodes at baseline to three episodes over the same time period after the intervention; establishing an acute paediatric review clinic that reduced avoidable admissions of pneumonia by 74 per cent; providing 100 per cent of patients in a palliative care unit with an effective pain-management plan; developing an education package to increase staff confidence in recognising and responding to anaphylaxis in children, producing an increase in confidence from 51 per cent at baseline to 100 per cent after the intervention. Involving a learned college such as the RACP in patient-care improvement, with educational input from a partner organisation, shows how junior staff can become effective leaders in improving patient care. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Improved central confidence intervals for the ratio of Poisson means

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cousins, R. D.

The problem of confidence intervals for the ratio of two unknown Poisson means was "solved" decades ago, but a closer examination reveals that the standard solution is far from optimal from the frequentist point of view. We construct a more powerful set of central confidence intervals, each of which is a (typically proper) subinterval of the corresponding standard interval. They also provide upper and lower confidence limits which are more restrictive than the standard limits. The construction follows Neyman's original prescription, though discreteness of the Poisson distribution and the presence of a nuisance parameter (one of the unknown means) lead to slightly conservative intervals. Philosophically, the issue of the appropriateness of the construction method is similar to the issue of conditioning on the margins in 2×2 contingency tables. From a frequentist point of view, the new set maintains (over) coverage of the unknown true value of the ratio of means at each stated confidence level, even though the new intervals are shorter than the old intervals by any measure (except for two cases where they are identical). As an example, when the number 2 is drawn from each Poisson population, the 90% CL central confidence interval on the ratio of means is (0.169, 5.196), rather than (0.108, 9.245). In the cited literature, such confidence intervals have applications in numerous branches of pure and applied science, including agriculture, wildlife studies, manufacturing, medicine, reliability theory, and elementary particle physics.

CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

1987-01-01

A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

The occurrence of planets and other substellar bodies around white dwarfs using K2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Sluijs, L.; Van Eylen, V.

2018-03-01

The majority of stars both host planetary systems and evolve into a white dwarf (WD). To understand their post-main-sequence planetary system evolution, we present a search for transiting/eclipsing planets and other substellar bodies (SBs) around WDs using a sample of 1148 WDs observed by K2. Using transit injections, we estimate the completeness of our search. We place constraints on the occurrence of planets and SBs around WDs as a function of planet radius and orbital period. For short-period (P < 40 d) small objects, from asteroid-sized to 1.5 R⊕, these are the strongest constraints known to date. We further constrain the occurrence of hot Jupiters ( < 1.5 per cent), habitable zone Earth-sized planets ( < 28 per cent), and disintegrating short-period planets ( ˜ 12 per cent). We blindly recovered all previously known eclipsing objects, providing confidence in our analysis, and make all light curves publicly available.

On the frequency of close binary systems among very low-mass stars and brown dwarfs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxted, P. F. L.; Jeffries, R. D.

2005-09-01

We have used Monte Carlo simulation techniques and published radial velocity surveys to constrain the frequency of very low-mass star (VLMS) and brown dwarf (BD) binary systems and their separation (a) distribution. Gaussian models for the separation distribution with a peak at a= 4au and 0.6 <=σlog(a/au)<= 1.0, correctly predict the number of observed binaries, yielding a close (a < 2.6au) binary frequency of 17-30 per cent and an overall VLMS/BD binary frequency of 32-45 per cent. We find that the available N-body models of VLMS/BD formation from dynamically decaying protostellar multiple systems are excluded at >99 per cent confidence because they predict too few close binary VLMS/BDs. The large number of close binaries and high overall binary frequency are also very inconsistent with recent smoothed particle hydrodynamical modelling and argue against a dynamical origin for VLMS/BDs.

Bootstrapping Confidence Intervals for Robust Measures of Association.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Jason E.

A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to determine the bootstrap correction formula yielding the most accurate confidence intervals for robust measures of association. Confidence intervals were generated via the percentile, adjusted, BC, and BC(a) bootstrap procedures and applied to the Winsorized, percentage bend, and Pearson correlation…

Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe

2016-01-01

As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…

Evaluating Independent Proportions for Statistical Difference, Equivalence, Indeterminacy, and Trivial Difference Using Inferential Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tryon, Warren W.; Lewis, Charles

2009-01-01

Tryon presented a graphic inferential confidence interval (ICI) approach to analyzing two independent and dependent means for statistical difference, equivalence, replication, indeterminacy, and trivial difference. Tryon and Lewis corrected the reduction factor used to adjust descriptive confidence intervals (DCIs) to create ICIs and introduced…

Four applications of permutation methods to testing a single-mediator model.

PubMed

Taylor, Aaron B; MacKinnon, David P

2012-09-01

Four applications of permutation tests to the single-mediator model are described and evaluated in this study. Permutation tests work by rearranging data in many possible ways in order to estimate the sampling distribution for the test statistic. The four applications to mediation evaluated here are the permutation test of ab, the permutation joint significance test, and the noniterative and iterative permutation confidence intervals for ab. A Monte Carlo simulation study was used to compare these four tests with the four best available tests for mediation found in previous research: the joint significance test, the distribution of the product test, and the percentile and bias-corrected bootstrap tests. We compared the different methods on Type I error, power, and confidence interval coverage. The noniterative permutation confidence interval for ab was the best performer among the new methods. It successfully controlled Type I error, had power nearly as good as the most powerful existing methods, and had better coverage than any existing method. The iterative permutation confidence interval for ab had lower power than do some existing methods, but it performed better than any other method in terms of coverage. The permutation confidence interval methods are recommended when estimating a confidence interval is a primary concern. SPSS and SAS macros that estimate these confidence intervals are provided.

Race, Ethnicity, Language, Social Class, and Health Communication Inequalities: A Nationally-Representative Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Viswanath, Kasisomayajula; Ackerson, Leland K.

2011-01-01

Background While mass media communications can be an important source of health information, there are substantial social disparities in health knowledge that may be related to media use. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the use of cancer-related health communications is patterned by race, ethnicity, language, and social class. Methodology/Principal Findings In a nationally-representative cross-sectional telephone survey, 5,187 U.S. adults provided information about demographic characteristics, cancer information seeking, and attention to and trust in health information from television, radio, newspaper, magazines, and the Internet. Cancer information seeking was lowest among Spanish-speaking Hispanics (odds ratio: 0.42; 95% confidence interval: 0.28–0.63) compared to non-Hispanic whites. Spanish-speaking Hispanics were more likely than non-Hispanic whites to pay attention to (odds ratio: 3.10; 95% confidence interval: 2.07–4.66) and trust (odds ratio: 2.61; 95% confidence interval: 1.53–4.47) health messages from the radio. Non-Hispanic blacks were more likely than non-Hispanic whites to pay attention to (odds ratio: 2.39; 95% confidence interval: 1.88–3.04) and trust (odds ratio: 2.16; 95% confidence interval: 1.61–2.90) health messages on television. Those who were college graduates tended to pay more attention to health information from newspapers (odds ratio: 1.98; 95% confidence interval: 1.42–2.75), magazines (odds ratio: 1.86; 95% confidence interval: 1.32–2.60), and the Internet (odds ratio: 4.74; 95% confidence interval: 2.70–8.31) and had less trust in cancer-related health information from television (odds ratio: 0.44; 95% confidence interval: 0.32–0.62) and radio (odds ratio: 0.54; 95% confidence interval: 0.34–0.86) compared to those who were not high school graduates. Conclusions/Significance Health media use is patterned by race, ethnicity, language and social class. Providing greater access to and enhancing the quality of health media by taking into account factors associated with social determinants may contribute to addressing social disparities in health. PMID:21267450

Preconceptional and prenatal supplementary folic acid and multivitamin intake and autism spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Virk, Jasveer; Liew, Zeyan; Olsen, Jørn; Nohr, Ellen A; Catov, Janet M; Ritz, Beate

2016-08-01

To evaluate whether early folic acid supplementation during pregnancy prevents diagnosis of autism spectrum disorders in offspring. Information on autism spectrum disorder diagnosis was obtained from the National Hospital Register and the Central Psychiatric Register. We estimated risk ratios for autism spectrum disorders for children whose mothers took folate or multivitamin supplements from 4 weeks prior from the last menstrual period through to 8 weeks after the last menstrual period (-4 to 8 weeks) by three 4-week periods. We did not find an association between early folate or multivitamin intake for autism spectrum disorder (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.06, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.36; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 1.00, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.22), autistic disorder (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.18, 95% confidence interval: 0.76-1.84; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 1.22, 95% confidence interval: 0.87-1.69), Asperger's syndrome (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 0.85, 95% confidence interval: 0.46-1.53; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 0.95, 95% confidence interval: 0.62-1.46), or pervasive developmental disorder-not otherwise specified (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.07, 95% confidence interval: 0.75-1.54; multivitamin: adjusted risk ratio: 0.87, 95% confidence interval: 0.65-1.17) compared with women reporting no supplement use in the same period. We did not find any evidence to corroborate previous reports of a reduced risk for autism spectrum disorders in offspring of women using folic acid supplements in early pregnancy. © The Author(s) 2015.

Revealing stellar brightness profiles by means of microlensing fold caustics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominik, M.

2004-09-01

With a handful of measurements of limb-darkening coefficients, galactic microlensing has already proven to be a powerful technique for studying atmospheres of distant stars. Survey campaigns such as OGLE-III are capable of providing ~10 suitable target stars per year that undergo microlensing events involving passages over the caustic created by a binary lens, which last from a few hours to a few days and allow us to resolve the stellar atmosphere by frequent broad-band photometry. For a caustic exit lasting 12 h and a photometric precision of 1.5 per cent, a moderate sampling interval of 30 min (corresponding to ~25-30 data points) is sufficient for providing a reliable measurement of the linear limb-darkening coefficient Γ with an uncertainty of ~8 per cent, which reduces to ~3 per cent for a reduced sampling interval of 6 min for the surroundings of the end of the caustic exit. While some additional points over the remaining parts of the light curve are highly valuable, a denser sampling in these regions provides little improvement. Unless an accuracy of less than 5 per cent is desired, limb-darkening coefficients for several filters can be obtained or observing time can be spent on other targets during the same night. The adoption of an inappropriate stellar brightness profile as well as the effect of acceleration between source and caustic yield distinguishable characteristic systematics in the model residuals. Acceleration effects are unlikely to affect the light curve significantly for most events, although a free acceleration parameter blurs the limb-darkening measurement if the passage duration cannot be accurately determined.

Applying Bootstrap Resampling to Compute Confidence Intervals for Various Statistics with R

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dogan, C. Deha

2017-01-01

Background: Most of the studies in academic journals use p values to represent statistical significance. However, this is not a good indicator of practical significance. Although confidence intervals provide information about the precision of point estimation, they are, unfortunately, rarely used. The infrequent use of confidence intervals might…

Reporting Confidence Intervals and Effect Sizes: Collecting the Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Ozel, Z. Ebrar Yetkiner; Ozel, Serkan; Allen, Jeff

2012-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) and effect sizes are essential to encourage meta-analytic thinking and to accumulate research findings. CIs provide a range of plausible values for population parameters with a degree of confidence that the parameter is in that particular interval. CIs also give information about how precise the estimates are. Comparison…

Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

2016-01-01

Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Ordinary Least Squares Factor Loadings and Correlations in Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Guangjian; Preacher, Kristopher J.; Luo, Shanhong

2010-01-01

This article is concerned with using the bootstrap to assign confidence intervals for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations in ordinary least squares exploratory factor analysis. Coverage performances of "SE"-based intervals, percentile intervals, bias-corrected percentile intervals, bias-corrected accelerated percentile…

Accuracy in parameter estimation for targeted effects in structural equation modeling: sample size planning for narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Lai, Keke; Kelley, Ken

2011-06-01

In addition to evaluating a structural equation model (SEM) as a whole, often the model parameters are of interest and confidence intervals for those parameters are formed. Given a model with a good overall fit, it is entirely possible for the targeted effects of interest to have very wide confidence intervals, thus giving little information about the magnitude of the population targeted effects. With the goal of obtaining sufficiently narrow confidence intervals for the model parameters of interest, sample size planning methods for SEM are developed from the accuracy in parameter estimation approach. One method plans for the sample size so that the expected confidence interval width is sufficiently narrow. An extended procedure ensures that the obtained confidence interval will be no wider than desired, with some specified degree of assurance. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted that verified the effectiveness of the procedures in realistic situations. The methods developed have been implemented in the MBESS package in R so that they can be easily applied by researchers. © 2011 American Psychological Association

Commentary on Holmes et al. (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable.

PubMed

Ellner, Stephen P; Holmes, Elizabeth E

2008-08-01

We reconcile the findings of Holmes et al. (Ecology Letters, 10, 2007, 1182) that 95% confidence intervals for quasi-extinction risk were narrow for many vertebrates of conservation concern, with previous theory predicting wide confidence intervals. We extend previous theory, concerning the precision of quasi-extinction estimates as a function of population dynamic parameters, prediction intervals and quasi-extinction thresholds, and provide an approximation that specifies the prediction interval and threshold combinations where quasi-extinction estimates are precise (vs. imprecise). This allows PVA practitioners to define the prediction interval and threshold regions of safety (low risk with high confidence), danger (high risk with high confidence), and uncertainty.

Control of a community outbreak of measles which started in a poorly immunised high school population.

PubMed

Merianos, A; Miller, N C; Patel, M S

1993-09-01

An outbreak of measles occurred in Darwin from February to March 1991. The first case was in a 13-year-old high school student who had returned from a holiday overseas. She was symptomatic on the second day of the new school term. She infected an infant while both waited in a doctor's surgery. Outbreak control measures were instituted 18 days later when the Communicable Diseases Centre was first alerted of cases through the laboratory notification scheme. Through active surveillance, we identified 76 cases of measles, of whom 92 per cent (70 cases) were under 20 years of age. Of these, 46 were students at the index high school in which the attack rate was 39.2 per 1,000. They transmitted the disease to six unvaccinated siblings aged 11 to 18 years, resulting in a secondary attack rate of 113 per 1,000 in this age group (relative risk of disease in siblings 2.8, 95 per cent confidence interval 1.2 to 6.2). The outbreak affected one other high school, a number of primary schools, one tertiary institution, and nine children under five years. Only four of the cases had a verified history of previous immunisation against measles. The outbreak was arrested within two weeks of instituting community-wide control measures. Inadequate immunisation coverage among school-aged children and delays in notification contributed to the severity of the outbreak. Improved measles surveillance systems, including telephone notification of clinical cases are needed so that control measures can be instituted immediately within the household and in the community.

Meta-analysis of peak wall stress in ruptured, symptomatic and intact abdominal aortic aneurysms.

PubMed

Khosla, S; Morris, D R; Moxon, J V; Walker, P J; Gasser, T C; Golledge, J

2014-10-01

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is an important cause of sudden death; however, there are currently incomplete means to predict the risk of AAA rupture. AAA peak wall stress (PWS) can be estimated using finite element analysis (FEA) methods from computed tomography (CT) scans. The question is whether AAA PWS can predict AAA rupture. The aim of this systematic review was to compare PWS in patients with ruptured and intact AAA. The MEDLINE database was searched on 25 May 2013. Case-control studies assessing PWS in asymptomatic intact, and acutely symptomatic or ruptured AAA from CT scans using FEA were included. Data were extracted independently. A random-effects model was used to calculate standard mean differences (SMDs) for PWS measurements. Nine studies assessing 348 individuals were identified and used in the meta-analysis. Results from 204 asymptomatic intact and 144 symptomatic or ruptured AAAs showed that PWS was significantly greater in the symptomatic/ ruptured AAAs compared with the asymptomatic intact AAAs (SMD 0·95, 95 per cent confidence interval 0·71 to 1·18; P < 0·001). The findings remained significant after adjustment for mean systolic blood pressure, standardized at 120 mmHg (SMD 0·68, 0·39 to 0·96; P < 0·001). Minimal heterogeneity between studies was noted (I(2)  = 0 per cent). This study suggests that PWS is greater in symptomatic or ruptured AAA than in asymptomatic intact AAA. © 2014 BJS Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes of antenatal anemia in a Scottish population: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Rukuni, Ruramayi; Bhattacharya, Sohinee; Murphy, Michael F; Roberts, David; Stanworth, Simon J; Knight, Marian

2016-05-01

Antenatal anemia is a major public health problem in the UK, yet there is limited high quality evidence for associated poor clinical outcomes. The objectives of this study were to estimate the incidence and clinical outcomes of antenatal anemia in a Scottish population. A retrospective cohort study of 80 422 singleton pregnancies was conducted using data from the Aberdeen Maternal and Neonatal Databank between 1995 and 2012. Antenatal anemia was defined as haemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dl during pregnancy. Incidence was calculated with 95% confidence intervals and compared over time using a chi-squared test for trend. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for confounding variables. Results are presented as adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence interval. The overall incidence of antenatal anemia was 9.3 cases/100 singleton pregnancies (95% confidence interval 9.1-9.5), decreasing from 16.9/100 to 4.1/100 singleton pregnancies between 1995 and 2012 (p < 0.001). Maternal anemia was associated with antepartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.17-1.36), postpartum infection (adjusted odds ratio 1.89, 95% confidence interval 1.39-2.57), transfusion (adjusted odds ratio 1.87, 95% confidence interval 1.65-2.13) and stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.94), reduced odds of postpartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.86-0.98) and low birthweight (adjusted odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.69-0.86). No other outcomes were statistically significant. This study shows the incidence of antenatal anemia is decreasing steadily within this Scottish population. However, given that anemia is a readily correctable risk factor for major causes of morbidity and mortality in the UK, further work is required to investigate appropriate preventive measures. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Opioid analgesia in mechanically ventilated children: results from the multicenter Measuring Opioid Tolerance Induced by Fentanyl study.

PubMed

Anand, Kanwaljeet J S; Clark, Amy E; Willson, Douglas F; Berger, John; Meert, Kathleen L; Zimmerman, Jerry J; Harrison, Rick; Carcillo, Joseph A; Newth, Christopher J L; Bisping, Stephanie; Holubkov, Richard; Dean, J Michael; Nicholson, Carol E

2013-01-01

To examine the clinical factors associated with increased opioid dose among mechanically ventilated children in the pediatric intensive care unit. Prospective, observational study with 100% accrual of eligible patients. Seven pediatric intensive care units from tertiary-care children's hospitals in the Collaborative Pediatric Critical Care Research Network. Four hundred nineteen children treated with morphine or fentanyl infusions. None. Data on opioid use, concomitant therapy, demographic and explanatory variables were collected. Significant variability occurred in clinical practices, with up to 100-fold differences in baseline opioid doses, average daily or total doses, or peak infusion rates. Opioid exposure for 7 or 14 days required doubling of the daily opioid dose in 16% patients (95% confidence interval 12%-19%) and 20% patients (95% confidence interval 16%-24%), respectively. Among patients receiving opioids for longer than 3 days (n = 225), this occurred in 28% (95% confidence interval 22%-33%) and 35% (95% confidence interval 29%-41%) by 7 or 14 days, respectively. Doubling of the opioid dose was more likely to occur following opioid infusions for 7 days or longer (odds ratio 7.9, 95% confidence interval 4.3-14.3; p < 0.001) or co-therapy with midazolam (odds ratio 5.6, 95% confidence interval 2.4-12.9; p < 0.001), and it was less likely to occur if morphine was used as the primary opioid (vs. fentanyl) (odds ratio 0.48, 95% confidence interval 0.25-0.92; p = 0.03), for patients receiving higher initial doses (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95-0.98; p < 0.001), or if patients had prior pediatric intensive care unit admissions (odds ratio 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.89; p = 0.03). Mechanically ventilated children require increasing opioid doses, often associated with prolonged opioid exposure or the need for additional sedation. Efforts to reduce prolonged opioid exposure and clinical practice variation may prevent the complications of opioid therapy.

Confidence Intervals for the Mean: To Bootstrap or Not to Bootstrap

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Calzada, Maria E.; Gardner, Holly

2011-01-01

The results of a simulation conducted by a research team involving undergraduate and high school students indicate that when data is symmetric the student's "t" confidence interval for a mean is superior to the studied non-parametric bootstrap confidence intervals. When data is skewed and for sample sizes n greater than or equal to 10,…

Confidence Intervals Make a Difference: Effects of Showing Confidence Intervals on Inferential Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.

2012-01-01

The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting results via CIs affects how readers judge the…

Using Asymptotic Results to Obtain a Confidence Interval for the Population Median

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jamshidian, M.; Khatoonabadi, M.

2007-01-01

Almost all introductory and intermediate level statistics textbooks include the topic of confidence interval for the population mean. Almost all these texts introduce the median as a robust measure of central tendency. Only a few of these books, however, cover inference on the population median and in particular confidence interval for the median.…

ScoreRel CI: An Excel Program for Computing Confidence Intervals for Commonly Used Score Reliability Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnette, J. Jackson

2005-01-01

An Excel program developed to assist researchers in the determination and presentation of confidence intervals around commonly used score reliability coefficients is described. The software includes programs to determine confidence intervals for Cronbachs alpha, Pearson r-based coefficients such as those used in test-retest and alternate forms…

Confidence intervals from single observations in forest research

Treesearch

Harry T. Valentine; George M. Furnival; Timothy G. Gregoire

1991-01-01

A procedure for constructing confidence intervals and testing hypothese from a single trial or observation is reviewed. The procedure requires a prior, fixed estimate or guess of the outcome of an experiment or sampling. Two examples of applications are described: a confidence interval is constructed for the expected outcome of a systematic sampling of a forested tract...

Women in Science, Resource Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor. School of Dentistry.

Many young women must contend with social and psychological barriers that prevent them from pursuing careers in science and mathematics. Because of lack of confidence, misconceptions, lack of preparation, and discrimination, many women self-select themselves out of as many as 75 per cent of all careers before they reach college age. This series…

Depressive symptoms in nonresident african american fathers and involvement with their sons.

PubMed

Davis, R Neal; Caldwell, Cleopatra Howard; Clark, Sarah J; Davis, Matthew M

2009-12-01

Our objective was to determine whether paternal depressive symptoms were associated with less father involvement among African American fathers not living with their children (ie, nonresident fathers). We analyzed survey data for 345 fathers enrolled in a program for nonresident African American fathers and their preteen sons. Father involvement included measures of contact, closeness, monitoring, communication, and conflict. We used bivariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression analysis to examine associations between father involvement and depressive symptoms. Thirty-six percent of fathers reported moderate depressive symptoms, and 11% reported severe depressive symptoms. In bivariate analyses, depressive symptoms were associated with less contact, less closeness, low monitoring, and increased conflict. In multivariate analyses controlling for basic demographic features, fathers with moderate depressive symptoms were more likely to have less contact (adjusted odds ratio: 1.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-2.8]), less closeness (adjusted odds ratio: 2.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.3-3.5]), low monitoring (adjusted odds ratio: 2.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.4-5.2]), and high conflict (adjusted odds ratio: 2.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.2-3.6]). Fathers with severe depressive symptoms also were more likely to have less contact (adjusted odds ratio: 3.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.4-7.2]), less closeness (adjusted odds ratio: 2.6 [95% confidence interval: 1.2-5.7]), low monitoring (adjusted odds ratio: 2.8 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-7.1]), and high conflict (adjusted odds ratio: 2.6 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-5.9]). Paternal depressive symptoms may be an important, but modifiable, barrier for nonresident African American fathers willing to be more involved with their children.

Ethnic variations in morbidity and mortality from lower respiratory tract infections: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Simpson, Colin R; Steiner, Markus Fc; Cezard, Genevieve; Bansal, Narinder; Fischbacher, Colin; Douglas, Anne; Bhopal, Raj; Sheikh, Aziz

2015-10-01

There is evidence of substantial ethnic variations in asthma morbidity and the risk of hospitalisation, but the picture in relation to lower respiratory tract infections is unclear. We carried out an observational study to identify ethnic group differences for lower respiratory tract infections. A retrospective, cohort study. Scotland. 4.65 million people on whom information was available from the 2001 census, followed from May 2001 to April 2010. Hospitalisations and deaths (any time following first hospitalisation) from lower respiratory tract infections, adjusted risk ratios and hazard ratios by ethnicity and sex were calculated. We multiplied ratios and confidence intervals by 100, so the reference Scottish White population's risk ratio and hazard ratio was 100. Among men, adjusted risk ratios for lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation were lower in Other White British (80, 95% confidence interval 73-86) and Chinese (69, 95% confidence interval 56-84) populations and higher in Pakistani groups (152, 95% confidence interval 136-169). In women, results were mostly similar to those in men (e.g. Chinese 68, 95% confidence interval 56-82), although higher adjusted risk ratios were found among women of the Other South Asians group (145, 95% confidence interval 120-175). Survival (adjusted hazard ratio) following lower respiratory tract infection for Pakistani men (54, 95% confidence interval 39-74) and women (31, 95% confidence interval 18-53) was better than the reference population. Substantial differences in the rates of lower respiratory tract infections amongst different ethnic groups in Scotland were found. Pakistani men and women had particularly high rates of lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation. The reasons behind the high rates of lower respiratory tract infection in the Pakistani community are now required. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Risk factors of childhood asthma in children attending Lyari General Hospital.

PubMed

Kamran, Amber; Hanif, Shahina; Murtaza, Ghulam

2015-06-01

To determine the factors associated with asthma in children. The case-control study was conducted in the paediatrics clinic of Lyari General Hospital, Karachi, from May to October 2010. Children 1-15 years of age attending the clinic represented the cases, while the control group had children who were closely related (sibling or cousin) to the cases but did not have the symptoms of disease at the time. Data was collected through a proforma and analysed using SPSS 10. Of the total 346 subjects, 173(50%) each comprised the two groups. According to univariable analysis the risk factors were presence of at least one smoker (odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 2.3-5.8), resident of kacha house (odds ratio: 16.2; 95% confidence interval: 3.8-69.5),living in room without windows (odds ratio: 9.3; 95% confidence interval: 2.1-40.9) and living in houses without adequate sunlight (odds ratio: 1.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.2-2.4).Using multivariable modelling, family history of asthma (odds ratio: 5.9; 95% confidence interval: 3.1-11.6), presence of at least one smoker at home (odds ratio: 4.1; 95% confidence interval: 2.3-7.2), people living in a room without a window (odds ratio: 5.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.15-26.3) and people living in an area without adequate sunlight (odds ratio: 2.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.13-4.31) were found to be independent risk factors of asthma in children adjusting for age, gender and history of weaning. Family history of asthma, children living with at least one smoker at home, room without windows and people living in an area without sunlight were major risk factors of childhood asthma.

Confirmation of linear system theory prediction: Changes in Herrnstein's k as a function of changes in reinforcer magnitude.

PubMed

McDowell, J J; Wood, H M

1984-03-01

Eight human subjects pressed a lever on a range of variable-interval schedules for 0.25 cent to 35.0 cent per reinforcement. Herrnstein's hyperbola described seven of the eight subjects' response-rate data well. For all subjects, the y-asymptote of the hyperbola increased with increasing reinforcer magnitude and its reciprocal was a linear function of the reciprocal of reinforcer magnitude. These results confirm predictions made by linear system theory; they contradict formal properties of Herrnstein's account and of six other mathematical accounts of single-alternative responding.

Standardized likelihood ratio test for comparing several log-normal means and confidence interval for the common mean.

PubMed

Krishnamoorthy, K; Oral, Evrim

2017-12-01

Standardized likelihood ratio test (SLRT) for testing the equality of means of several log-normal distributions is proposed. The properties of the SLRT and an available modified likelihood ratio test (MLRT) and a generalized variable (GV) test are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation and compared. Evaluation studies indicate that the SLRT is accurate even for small samples, whereas the MLRT could be quite liberal for some parameter values, and the GV test is in general conservative and less powerful than the SLRT. Furthermore, a closed-form approximate confidence interval for the common mean of several log-normal distributions is developed using the method of variance estimate recovery, and compared with the generalized confidence interval with respect to coverage probabilities and precision. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed confidence interval is accurate and better than the generalized confidence interval in terms of coverage probabilities. The methods are illustrated using two examples.

Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salamat, Mona; Zare, Mehdi; Holschneider, Matthias; Zöller, Gert

2017-03-01

The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m_max is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m_max is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating m_max from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.

Glutathione and 2,3-diphosphoglycerate in the blood of hypoxic ruminants.

PubMed

O'Dea, J D; Agar, N S

1980-09-01

Two merino sheep and two angora goats were subjected to simulated altitudes of up to 5500 m for about 10 h per day for 38 days. Packed cell volume (PCV), haemoglobin (Hb) concentration and red blood cell (RBC) levels of reduced glutathione (GSH) and 2,3-diphosphoglycerate (2,3-DPG) were measured at regular intervals. Mean PCV increased from 33 per cent to 60 per cent in the sheep and from 33 per cent to 45 per cent in the goats. Mean Hb concentration rose from 11.7 g/dl to 23.1 g/dl in the sheep, and from 11.4 g/dl to 16.0 g/dl in the goats. The level of GSH began to rise in the sheep only after the animals were no longer being subjected to the hypoxic stress, increasing by about 20 mg/dl RBC. In the goats, the levels of GSH rose during, as well as after, the period of hypoxic stress, also by about 20 mg/dl RBC. No change in 2,3-DPG levels was found in either species.

Risk factors for low birth weight according to the multiple logistic regression model. A retrospective cohort study in José María Morelos municipality, Quintana Roo, Mexico.

PubMed

Franco Monsreal, José; Tun Cobos, Miriam Del Ruby; Hernández Gómez, José Ricardo; Serralta Peraza, Lidia Esther Del Socorro

2018-01-17

Low birth weight has been an enigma for science over time. There have been many researches on its causes and its effects. Low birth weight is an indicator that predicts the probability of a child surviving. In fact, there is an exponential relationship between weight deficit, gestational age, and perinatal mortality. Multiple logistic regression is one of the most expressive and versatile statistical instruments available for the analysis of data in both clinical and epidemiology settings, as well as in public health. To assess in a multivariate fashion the importance of 17 independent variables in low birth weight (dependent variable) of children born in the Mayan municipality of José María Morelos, Quintana Roo, Mexico. Analytical observational epidemiological cohort study with retrospective temporality. Births that met the inclusion criteria occurred in the "Hospital Integral Jose Maria Morelos" of the Ministry of Health corresponding to the Maya municipality of Jose Maria Morelos during the period from August 1, 2014 to July 31, 2015. The total number of newborns recorded was 1,147; 84 of which (7.32%) had low birth weight. To estimate the independent association between the explanatory variables (potential risk factors) and the response variable, a multiple logistic regression analysis was performed using the IBM SPSS Statistics 22 software. In ascending numerical order values of odds ratio > 1 indicated the positive contribution of explanatory variables or possible risk factors: "unmarried" marital status (1.076, 95% confidence interval: 0.550 to 2.104); age at menarche ≤ 12 years (1.08, 95% confidence interval: 0.64 to 1.84); history of abortion(s) (1.14, 95% confidence interval: 0.44 to 2.93); maternal weight < 50 kg (1.51, 95% confidence interval: 0.83 to 2.76); number of prenatal consultations ≤ 5 (1.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.94 to 3.66); maternal age ≥ 36 years (3.5, 95% confidence interval: 0.40 to 30.47); maternal age ≤ 19 years (3.59, 95% confidence interval: 0.43 to 29.87); number of deliveries = 1 (3.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.33 to 44.85); personal pathological history (4.78, 95% confidence interval: 2.16 to 10.59); pathological obstetric history (5.01, 95% confidence interval: 1.66 to 15.18); maternal height < 150 cm (5.16, 95% confidence interval: 3.08 to 8.65); number of births ≥ 5 (5.99, 95% confidence interval: 0.51 to 69.99); and smoking (15.63, 95% confidence interval: 1.07 to 227.97). Four of the independent variables (personal pathological history, obstetric pathological history, maternal stature <150 centimeters and smoking) showed a significant positive contribution, thus they can be considered as clear risk factors for low birth weight. The use of the logistic regression model in the Mayan municipality of José María Morelos, will allow estimating the probability of low birth weight for each pregnant woman in the future, which will be useful for the health authorities of the region.

Reliability of confidence intervals calculated by bootstrap and classical methods using the FIA 1-ha plot design

Treesearch

H. T. Schreuder; M. S. Williams

2000-01-01

In simulation sampling from forest populations using sample sizes of 20, 40, and 60 plots respectively, confidence intervals based on the bootstrap (accelerated, percentile, and t-distribution based) were calculated and compared with those based on the classical t confidence intervals for mapped populations and subdomains within those populations. A 68.1 ha mapped...

Confidence Intervals for Proportion Estimates in Complex Samples. Research Report. ETS RR-06-21

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oranje, Andreas

2006-01-01

Confidence intervals are an important tool to indicate uncertainty of estimates and to give an idea of probable values of an estimate if a different sample from the population was drawn or a different sample of measures was used. Standard symmetric confidence intervals for proportion estimates based on a normal approximation can yield bounds…

A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Confidence Intervals for Omega-Squared Effect Size

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finch, W. Holmes; French, Brian F.

2012-01-01

Effect size use has been increasing in the past decade in many research areas. Confidence intervals associated with effect sizes are encouraged to be reported. Prior work has investigated the performance of confidence interval estimation with Cohen's d. This study extends this line of work to the analysis of variance case with more than two…

Views and practices of Australian optometrists regarding driving for patients with central visual impairment.

PubMed

Oberstein, Sharon L; Boon, Mei Ying; Chu, Byoung Sun; Wood, Joanne M

2016-09-01

Eye-care practitioners are often required to make recommendations regarding their patients' visual fitness for driving, including patients with visual impairment. This study aimed to understand the perspectives and management strategies adopted by optometrists regarding driving for their patients with central visual impairment. Optometrists were invited to participate in an online survey (from April to June 2012). Items were designed to explore the views and practices adopted by optometrists regarding driving for patients with central visual impairment (visual acuity [VA] poorer than 6/12, normal visual fields, cognitive and physical health), including conditional driver's licences and bioptic telescopes. Closed- and open-ended questions were used. The response rate was 14 per cent (n = 300 valid responses were received). Most respondents (83 per cent) reported that they advised their patients with visual impairment to 'always' or 'sometimes' stop driving. Most were confident in interpreting the visual licensing standards (78 per cent) and advising on legal responsibilities concerning driving (99 per cent). Respondents were familiar with VA requirements for unconditional licensing (98 per cent); however, the median response VA of 6/15 as the poorest VA suggested for conditional licences differed from international practice and Australian medical guidelines released a month prior to the survey's launch. Few respondents reported prescribing bioptic telescopes (two per cent). While 97 per cent of respondents stated that they discussed conditional licences with their patients with visual impairment, relatively few (28 per cent) reported having completed conditional licence applications for such individuals in the previous year. Those who had completed applications were more experienced in years of practice (p = 0.02) and spent more time practising in rural locations (p = 0.03) than those who had not. The majority of Australian optometrists were receptive to the possibilities of driving options for individuals with central visual impairment, although management approaches varied with respect to conditional licensing. © 2016 Optometry Australia.

Patient, surgeon, and hospital disparities associated with benign hysterectomy approach and perioperative complications.

PubMed

Mehta, Ambar; Xu, Tim; Hutfless, Susan; Makary, Martin A; Sinno, Abdulrahman K; Tanner, Edward J; Stone, Rebecca L; Wang, Karen; Fader, Amanda N

2017-05-01

Hysterectomy is among the most common major surgical procedures performed in women. Approximately 450,000 hysterectomy procedures are performed each year in the United States for benign indications. However, little is known regarding contemporary US hysterectomy trends for women with benign disease with respect to operative technique and perioperative complications, and the association between these 2 factors with patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics. We sought to describe contemporary hysterectomy trends and explore associations between patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics with surgical approach and perioperative complications. Hysterectomies performed for benign indications by general gynecologists from July 2012 through September 2014 were analyzed in the all-payer Maryland Health Services Cost Review Commission database. We excluded hysterectomies performed by gynecologic oncologists, reproductive endocrinologists, and female pelvic medicine and reconstructive surgeons. We included both open hysterectomies and those performed by minimally invasive surgery, which included vaginal hysterectomies. Perioperative complications were defined using the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality patient safety indicators. Surgeon hysterectomy volume during the 2-year study period was analyzed (0-5 cases annually = very low, 6-10 = low, 11-20 = medium, and ≥21 = high). We utilized logistic regression and negative binomial regression to identify patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics associated with minimally invasive surgery utilization and perioperative complications, respectively. A total of 5660 hospitalizations were identified during the study period. Most patients (61.5%) had an open hysterectomy; 38.5% underwent a minimally invasive surgery procedure (25.1% robotic, 46.6% laparoscopic, 28.3% vaginal). Most surgeons (68.2%) were very low- or low-volume surgeons. Factors associated with a lower likelihood of undergoing minimally invasive surgery included older patient age (reference 45-64 years; 20-44 years: adjusted odds ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.28), black race (reference white; adjusted odds ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.78), Hispanic ethnicity (adjusted odds ratio, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.80), smaller hospital (reference large; small: adjusted odds ratio, 0.26; 95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.45; medium: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.96), medium hospital hysterectomy volume (reference ≥200 hysterectomies; 100-200: adjusted odds ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.87), and medium vs high surgeon volume (reference high; medium: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.97). Complications occurred in 25.8% of open and 8.2% of minimally invasive hysterectomies (P < .0001). Minimally invasive hysterectomy (adjusted odds ratio, 0.22; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.27) and large hysterectomy volume hospitals (reference ≥200 hysterectomies; 1-100: adjusted odds ratio, 2.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.60-3.20; 101-200: adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-2.16) were associated with fewer complications, while patient payer, including Medicare (reference private; adjusted odds ratio, 1.86; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-2.61), Medicaid (adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.04), and self-pay status (adjusted odds ratio, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-4.12), and very-low and low surgeon hysterectomy volume (reference ≥21 cases; 1-5 cases: adjusted odds ratio, 1.73; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.47; 6-10 cases: adjusted odds ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-2.23) were associated with perioperative complications. Use of minimally invasive hysterectomy for benign indications remains variable, with most patients undergoing open, more morbid procedures. Older and black patients and smaller hospitals are associated with open hysterectomy. Patient race and payer status, hysterectomy approach, and surgeon volume were associated with perioperative complications. Hysterectomies performed for benign indications by high-volume surgeons or by minimally invasive techniques may represent an opportunity to reduce preventable harm. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Opioid Analgesics and Adverse Outcomes among Hemodialysis Patients.

PubMed

Ishida, Julie H; McCulloch, Charles E; Steinman, Michael A; Grimes, Barbara A; Johansen, Kirsten L

2018-05-07

Patients on hemodialysis frequently experience pain and may be particularly vulnerable to opioid-related complications. However, data evaluating the risks of opioid use in patients on hemodialysis are limited. Using the US Renal Data System, we conducted a cohort study evaluating the association between opioid use (modeled as a time-varying exposure and expressed in standardized oral morphine equivalents) and time to first emergency room visit or hospitalization for altered mental status, fall, and fracture among 140,899 Medicare-covered adults receiving hemodialysis in 2011. We evaluated risk according to average daily total opioid dose (>60 mg, ≤60 mg, and per 60-mg dose increment) and specific agents (per 60-mg dose increment). The median age was 61 years old, 52% were men, and 50% were white. Sixty-four percent received opioids, and 17% had an episode of altered mental status (15,658 events), fall (7646 events), or fracture (4151 events) in 2011. Opioid use was associated with risk for all outcomes in a dose-dependent manner: altered mental status (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.23 to 1.34; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.56 to 1.78; hazard ratio, 1.29 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.26 to 1.33), fall (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.21 to 1.36; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 1.61; hazard ratio, 1.04 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.05), and fracture (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.33 to 1.56; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.44 to 1.89; hazard ratio, 1.04 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.05). All agents were associated with a significantly higher hazard of altered mental status, and several agents were associated with a significantly higher hazard of fall and fracture. Opioids were associated with adverse outcomes in patients on hemodialysis, and this risk was present even at lower dosing and for agents that guidelines have recommended for use. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Pregnancy outcome in joint hypermobility syndrome and Ehlers-Danlos syndrome.

PubMed

Sundelin, Heléne E K; Stephansson, Olof; Johansson, Kari; Ludvigsson, Jonas F

2017-01-01

An increased risk of preterm birth in women with joint hypermobility syndrome or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome is suspected. In this nationwide cohort study from 1997 through 2011, women with either joint hypermobility syndrome or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome or both disorders were identified through the Swedish Patient Register, and linked to the Medical Birth Register. Thereby, 314 singleton births to women with joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome before delivery were identified. These births were compared with 1 247 864 singleton births to women without a diagnosis of joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome. We used logistic regression, adjusted for maternal age, smoking, parity, and year of birth, to calculate adjusted odds ratios for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Maternal joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome was not associated with any of our outcomes: preterm birth (adjusted odds ratio = 0.6, 95% confidence interval 0.3-1.2), preterm premature rupture of membranes (adjusted odds ratio = 0.8; 95% confidence interval 0.3-2.2), cesarean section (adjusted odds ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.7-1.2), stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio = 1.1, 95% confidence interval 0.2-7.9), low Apgar score (adjusted odds ratio = 1.6, 95% confidence interval 0.7-3.6), small for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.4-1.8) or large for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio = 1.2, 95% confidence interval 0.6-2.1). Examining only women with Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (n = 62), we found a higher risk of induction of labor (adjusted odds ratio = 2.6; 95% confidence interval 1.4-4.6) and amniotomy (adjusted odds ratio = 3.8; 95% confidence interval 2.0-7.1). No excess risks for adverse pregnancy outcome were seen in joint hypermobility syndrome. Women with joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome do not seem to be at increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Comprehension of confidence intervals - development and piloting of patient information materials for people with multiple sclerosis: qualitative study and pilot randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Rahn, Anne C; Backhus, Imke; Fuest, Franz; Riemann-Lorenz, Karin; Köpke, Sascha; van de Roemer, Adrianus; Mühlhauser, Ingrid; Heesen, Christoph

2016-09-20

Presentation of confidence intervals alongside information about treatment effects can support informed treatment choices in people with multiple sclerosis. We aimed to develop and pilot-test different written patient information materials explaining confidence intervals in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Further, a questionnaire on comprehension of confidence intervals was developed and piloted. We developed different patient information versions aiming to explain confidence intervals. We used an illustrative example to test three different approaches: (1) short version, (2) "average weight" version and (3) "worm prophylaxis" version. Interviews were conducted using think-aloud and teach-back approaches to test feasibility and analysed using qualitative content analysis. To assess comprehension of confidence intervals, a six-item multiple choice questionnaire was developed and tested in a pilot randomised controlled trial using the online survey software UNIPARK. Here, the average weight version (intervention group) was tested against a standard patient information version on confidence intervals (control group). People with multiple sclerosis were invited to take part using existing mailing-lists of people with multiple sclerosis in Germany and were randomised using the UNIPARK algorithm. Participants were blinded towards group allocation. Primary endpoint was comprehension of confidence intervals, assessed with the six-item multiple choice questionnaire with six points representing perfect knowledge. Feasibility of the patient information versions was tested with 16 people with multiple sclerosis. For the pilot randomised controlled trial, 64 people with multiple sclerosis were randomised (intervention group: n = 36; control group: n = 28). More questions were answered correctly in the intervention group compared to the control group (mean 4.8 vs 3.8, mean difference 1.1 (95 % CI 0.42-1.69), p = 0.002). The questionnaire's internal consistency was moderate (Cronbach's alpha = 0.56). The pilot-phase shows promising results concerning acceptability and feasibility. Pilot randomised controlled trial results indicate that the patient information is well understood and that knowledge gain on confidence intervals can be assessed with a set of six questions. German Clinical Trials Register: DRKS00008561 . Registered 8th of June 2015.

Ethnic Differences in Incidence and Outcomes of Childhood Nephrotic Syndrome.

PubMed

Banh, Tonny H M; Hussain-Shamsy, Neesha; Patel, Viral; Vasilevska-Ristovska, Jovanka; Borges, Karlota; Sibbald, Cathryn; Lipszyc, Deborah; Brooke, Josefina; Geary, Denis; Langlois, Valerie; Reddon, Michele; Pearl, Rachel; Levin, Leo; Piekut, Monica; Licht, Christoph P B; Radhakrishnan, Seetha; Aitken-Menezes, Kimberly; Harvey, Elizabeth; Hebert, Diane; Piscione, Tino D; Parekh, Rulan S

2016-10-07

Ethnic differences in outcomes among children with nephrotic syndrome are unknown. We conducted a longitudinal study at a single regional pediatric center comparing ethnic differences in incidence from 2001 to 2011 census data and longitudinal outcomes, including relapse rates, time to first relapse, frequently relapsing disease, and use of cyclophosphamide. Among 711 children, 24% were European, 33% were South Asian, 10% were East/Southeast Asian, and 33% were of other origins. Over 10 years, the overall incidence increased from 1.99/100,000 to 4.71/100,000 among children ages 1-18 years old. In 2011, South Asians had a higher incidence rate ratio of 6.61 (95% confidence interval, 3.16 to 15.1) compared with Europeans. East/Southeast Asians had a similar incidence rate ratio (0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.13 to 2.94) to Europeans. We determined outcomes in 455 children from the three largest ethnic groups with steroid-sensitive disease over a median of 4 years. South Asian and East/Southeast Asian children had significantly lower odds of frequently relapsing disease at 12 months (South Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.39 to 0.77; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.42; 95% confidence interval, 0.34 to 0.51), fewer subsequent relapses (South Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.50 to 0.81; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.24 to 0.91), lower risk of a first relapse (South Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 0.83; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.68), and lower use of cyclophosphamide (South Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.53 to 1.28; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% confidence interval, 0.41 to 0.71) compared with European children. Despite the higher incidence among South Asians, South and East/Southeast Asian children have significantly less complicated clinical outcomes compared with Europeans. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Does dental undergraduate education and postgraduate training enable intention to provide inhalation sedation in primary dental care? A path analytical exploration.

PubMed

Yuan, S; J Carson, S; Rooksby, M; McKerrow, J; Lush, C; Humphris, G; Freeman, R

2017-08-01

To examine how quality standards of dental undergraduate education, postgraduate training and qualifications together with confidence and barriers could be utilised to predict intention to provide inhalation sedation. All 202 dentists working within primary dental care in NHS Highland were invited to participate. The measures in the questionnaire survey included demographic information, undergraduate education and postgraduate qualifications, current provision and access to sedation service, attitudes towards confidence, barriers and intention to provide inhalation sedation. A path analytical approach was employed to investigate the fit of collected data to the proposed mediational model. One hundred and nine dentists who completed the entire questionnaire participated (response rate of 54%). Seventy-six per cent of dentists reported receiving lectures in conscious sedation during their undergraduate education. Statistically significantly more Public Dental Service dentists compared with General Dental Service (GDS) dentists had postgraduate qualification and Continuing Professional Development training experience in conscious sedation. Only twenty-four per cent of the participants stated that they provided inhalation sedation to their patients. The findings indicated that PDS dentists had higher attitudinal scores towards inhalation sedation than GDS practitioners. The proposed model showed an excellent level of fit. A multigroup comparison test confirmed that the level of association between confidence in providing inhalation sedation and intention varied by group (GDS vs. PDS respondents). Public Dental Service respondents who showed extensive postgraduate training experience in inhalation sedation were more confident and likely to provide this service. The quality standards of dental undergraduate education, postgraduate qualifications and training together with improved confidence predicted primary care dentists' intention to provide inhalation sedation. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Confidence intervals for correlations when data are not normal.

PubMed

Bishara, Anthony J; Hittner, James B

2017-02-01

With nonnormal data, the typical confidence interval of the correlation (Fisher z') may be inaccurate. The literature has been unclear as to which of several alternative methods should be used instead, and how extreme a violation of normality is needed to justify an alternative. Through Monte Carlo simulation, 11 confidence interval methods were compared, including Fisher z', two Spearman rank-order methods, the Box-Cox transformation, rank-based inverse normal (RIN) transformation, and various bootstrap methods. Nonnormality often distorted the Fisher z' confidence interval-for example, leading to a 95 % confidence interval that had actual coverage as low as 68 %. Increasing the sample size sometimes worsened this problem. Inaccurate Fisher z' intervals could be predicted by a sample kurtosis of at least 2, an absolute sample skewness of at least 1, or significant violations of normality hypothesis tests. Only the Spearman rank-order and RIN transformation methods were universally robust to nonnormality. Among the bootstrap methods, an observed imposed bootstrap came closest to accurate coverage, though it often resulted in an overly long interval. The results suggest that sample nonnormality can justify avoidance of the Fisher z' interval in favor of a more robust alternative. R code for the relevant methods is provided in supplementary materials.

Confidence intervals and sample size calculations for the standardized mean difference effect size between two normal populations under heteroscedasticity.

PubMed

Shieh, G

2013-12-01

The use of effect sizes and associated confidence intervals in all empirical research has been strongly emphasized by journal publication guidelines. To help advance theory and practice in the social sciences, this article describes an improved procedure for constructing confidence intervals of the standardized mean difference effect size between two independent normal populations with unknown and possibly unequal variances. The presented approach has advantages over the existing formula in both theoretical justification and computational simplicity. In addition, simulation results show that the suggested one- and two-sided confidence intervals are more accurate in achieving the nominal coverage probability. The proposed estimation method provides a feasible alternative to the most commonly used measure of Cohen's d and the corresponding interval procedure when the assumption of homogeneous variances is not tenable. To further improve the potential applicability of the suggested methodology, the sample size procedures for precise interval estimation of the standardized mean difference are also delineated. The desired precision of a confidence interval is assessed with respect to the control of expected width and to the assurance probability of interval width within a designated value. Supplementary computer programs are developed to aid in the usefulness and implementation of the introduced techniques.

Changing atmospheric CO2 concentration was the primary driver of early Cenozoic climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anagnostou, Eleni; John, Eleanor H.; Edgar, Kirsty M.; Foster, Gavin L.; Ridgwell, Andy; Inglis, Gordon N.; Pancost, Richard D.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pearson, Paul N.

2016-05-01

The Early Eocene Climate Optimum (EECO, which occurred about 51 to 53 million years ago), was the warmest interval of the past 65 million years, with mean annual surface air temperature over ten degrees Celsius warmer than during the pre-industrial period. Subsequent global cooling in the middle and late Eocene epoch, especially at high latitudes, eventually led to continental ice sheet development in Antarctica in the early Oligocene epoch (about 33.6 million years ago). However, existing estimates place atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels during the Eocene at 500-3,000 parts per million, and in the absence of tighter constraints carbon-climate interactions over this interval remain uncertain. Here we use recent analytical and methodological developments to generate a new high-fidelity record of CO2 concentrations using the boron isotope (δ11B) composition of well preserved planktonic foraminifera from the Tanzania Drilling Project, revising previous estimates. Although species-level uncertainties make absolute values difficult to constrain, CO2 concentrations during the EECO were around 1,400 parts per million. The relative decline in CO2 concentration through the Eocene is more robustly constrained at about fifty per cent, with a further decline into the Oligocene. Provided the latitudinal dependency of sea surface temperature change for a given climate forcing in the Eocene was similar to that of the late Quaternary period, this CO2 decline was sufficient to drive the well documented high- and low-latitude cooling that occurred through the Eocene. Once the change in global temperature between the pre-industrial period and the Eocene caused by the action of all known slow feedbacks (apart from those associated with the carbon cycle) is removed, both the EECO and the late Eocene exhibit an equilibrium climate sensitivity relative to the pre-industrial period of 2.1 to 4.6 degrees Celsius per CO2 doubling (66 per cent confidence), which is similar to the canonical range (1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius), indicating that a large fraction of the warmth of the early Eocene greenhouse was driven by increased CO2 concentrations, and that climate sensitivity was relatively constant throughout this period.

Stellar binary black holes in the LISA band: a new class of standard sirens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Pozzo, Walter; Sesana, Alberto; Klein, Antoine

2018-04-01

The recent Advanced LIGO detections of coalescing black hole binaries (BHBs) imply a large population of such systems emitting at milli-Hz frequencies, accessible to the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). We show that these systems provide a new class of cosmological standard sirens. Direct LISA luminosity distance - Dl - measurements, combined with the inhomogeneous redshift - z - distribution of possible host galaxies provide an effective way to populate the Dl-z diagram at z < 0.1, thus allowing a precise local measurement of the Hubble expansion rate. To be effective, the method requires a sufficiently precise LISA distance determination and sky localization of a sizeable number of BHBs, which is best achieved for a six-link detector configuration. We find that, for a BHB population consistent with current fiducial LIGO rates, the Hubble constant H0 can be determined at the ˜5 per cent and ˜2 per cent level (68 per cent confidence), assuming two and five million kilometre arm-length, respectively.

A comparison of confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient in community-based cluster randomization trials with a binary outcome.

PubMed

Braschel, Melissa C; Svec, Ivana; Darlington, Gerarda A; Donner, Allan

2016-04-01

Many investigators rely on previously published point estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient rather than on their associated confidence intervals to determine the required size of a newly planned cluster randomized trial. Although confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient that can be applied to community-based trials have been developed for a continuous outcome variable, fewer methods exist for a binary outcome variable. The aim of this study is to evaluate confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient applied to binary outcomes in community intervention trials enrolling a small number of large clusters. Existing methods for confidence interval construction are examined and compared to a new ad hoc approach based on dividing clusters into a large number of smaller sub-clusters and subsequently applying existing methods to the resulting data. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the width and coverage of confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient based on Smith's large sample approximation of the standard error of the one-way analysis of variance estimator, an inverted modified Wald test for the Fleiss-Cuzick estimator, and intervals constructed using a bootstrap-t applied to a variance-stabilizing transformation of the intraclass correlation coefficient estimate. In addition, a new approach is applied in which clusters are randomly divided into a large number of smaller sub-clusters with the same methods applied to these data (with the exception of the bootstrap-t interval, which assumes large cluster sizes). These methods are also applied to a cluster randomized trial on adolescent tobacco use for illustration. When applied to a binary outcome variable in a small number of large clusters, existing confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient provide poor coverage. However, confidence intervals constructed using the new approach combined with Smith's method provide nominal or close to nominal coverage when the intraclass correlation coefficient is small (<0.05), as is the case in most community intervention trials. This study concludes that when a binary outcome variable is measured in a small number of large clusters, confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient may be constructed by dividing existing clusters into sub-clusters (e.g. groups of 5) and using Smith's method. The resulting confidence intervals provide nominal or close to nominal coverage across a wide range of parameters when the intraclass correlation coefficient is small (<0.05). Application of this method should provide investigators with a better understanding of the uncertainty associated with a point estimator of the intraclass correlation coefficient used for determining the sample size needed for a newly designed community-based trial. © The Author(s) 2015.

Facebook and Twitter vaccine sentiment in response to measles outbreaks.

PubMed

Deiner, Michael S; Fathy, Cherie; Kim, Jessica; Niemeyer, Katherine; Ramirez, David; Ackley, Sarah F; Liu, Fengchen; Lietman, Thomas M; Porco, Travis C

2017-11-01

Social media posts regarding measles vaccination were classified as pro-vaccination, expressing vaccine hesitancy, uncertain, or irrelevant. Spearman correlations with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-reported measles cases and differenced smoothed cumulative case counts over this period were reported (using time series bootstrap confidence intervals). A total of 58,078 Facebook posts and 82,993 tweets were identified from 4 January 2009 to 27 August 2016. Pro-vaccination posts were correlated with the US weekly reported cases (Facebook: Spearman correlation 0.22 (95% confidence interval: 0.09 to 0.34), Twitter: 0.21 (95% confidence interval: 0.06 to 0.34)). Vaccine-hesitant posts, however, were uncorrelated with measles cases in the United States (Facebook: 0.01 (95% confidence interval: -0.13 to 0.14), Twitter: 0.0011 (95% confidence interval: -0.12 to 0.12)). These findings may result from more consistent social media engagement by individuals expressing vaccine hesitancy, contrasted with media- or event-driven episodic interest on the part of individuals favoring current policy.

A global survey of HIV-positive people's attitudes towards cure research.

PubMed

Simmons, R; Kall, M; Collins, S; Cairns, G; Taylor, S; Nelson, M; Fidler, S; Porter, K; Fox, J

2017-02-01

Involvement of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in the design of HIV cure studies is important, given the potential risks to participants. We present results of an international survey of PLHIV to define these issues and inform cure research. PLHIV were recruited in June-November 2014 through HIV websites, advocacy forums, social media and 12 UK HIV clinics. The survey included questions concerning demographics, HIV disease history, the desirability of types of cure and the patient's willingness to accept potential toxicity and treatment interruption (TI). We examined factors associated with TI and willingness to accept substantial risks. A total of 982 PLHIV completed the survey; 87% were male, 79% white and 81% men who have sex with men (MSM). Fifty-one per cent were aged 25-44 years and 69% were UK residents. The median time since diagnosis was 7 years [interquartile range (IQR) 2-17 years]. Eighty-eight per cent were receiving antiretrovirals (91% reported undetectable viral load). Health/wellbeing improvements (96%) and an inability to transmit HIV (90%) were more desirable cure characteristics than testing HIV-negative (69%). Ninety-five per cent were interested in participating in cure studies, and 59% were willing to accept substantial risks. PLHIV with a low CD4 count [201-350 cells/μL vs. ≥ 350 cells/μL; odds ratio (OR) 2.11; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-4.00] were more likely to accept risks, whereas those with limited knowledge of HIV treatments vs. excellent/good knowledge and those aged ≥ 65 years vs. 45-64 years were less likely to accept risks [OR 0.58 (95% CI 0.37-0.90) and OR 0.18 (95% CI 0.07-0.45), respectively]. TI was acceptable for 62% of participants, with the main concerns being becoming unwell (82%), becoming infectious (76%) and HIV spreading through the body (76%). Cure research was highly acceptable to the PLHIV surveyed. Most individuals would accept risks, including TI, even in the absence of personal benefit. An optimal cure would improve health and minimize onward transmission risk. © 2016 British HIV Association.

Professionals' and laypersons' appreciation of various options for Class III surgical correction.

PubMed

Fabré, M; Mossaz, C; Christou, P; Kiliaridis, S

2010-08-01

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the assessments of maxillofacial surgeons, orthodontists, and laypersons on the predicted aesthetic outcome of various surgical options in Class III correction and the associations between certain initial cephalometric values and the judges' preferred option. Pre-surgical lateral headfilms and coloured profile photographs of 18 skeletal Class III Caucasian adult patients (10 males and 8 females) with a mean age of 24.5 years were used. The headfilms were hand traced and digitized. Conventional cephalometric analysis was performed. Computerized predictions of three surgical options, mandibular setback, Le Fort I advancement, and bimaxillary surgery, were made. For each case, the pre-surgical profile photograph with the three predictions was presented on a printed page. The questionnaire was sent to 51 maxillofacial surgeons (response rate 45.1 per cent), 78 orthodontists (response rate 71.8 per cent), and 61 laypersons (response rate 100 per cent) to aesthetically evaluate the pre-surgical photographs and the surgical predictions by placing a mark along a 10-graded visual analogue scale (VAS) using a standard profile for calibration. Confidence interval was calculated for each patient. An independent samples t-test was used to detect initial cephalometric values associated with the judges' preferred option and analysis of variance/Tukey's honestly significant differences to evaluate differences between judges. Intra-observer reliability was assessed with a paired t-test. All treatment predictions led to improved scoring of facial aesthetics with the exception of the setback option for three patients. For 14 patients, general agreement for the preferred option existed between the three groups of judges. Laypersons tended to give lower improvement scores than professionals. Overjet, nasofacial, and nasomental angles were important in decision making between the mandibular setback and Le Fort I options (the more negative the overjet, the larger the nasofacial angle, the smaller the nasomental angle, the greater the preference for the Le Fort I option). Wits appraisal seemed to be important in decision making between the mandibular setback and bimaxillary options (the more negative the Wits appraisal, the greater the preference for the latter option).

Volumetric upper airway changes after rapid maxillary expansion: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Buck, Lloyd M; Dalci, Oyku; Darendeliler, M Ali; Papageorgiou, Spyridon N; Papadopoulou, Alexandra K

2017-10-01

Although Rapid Maxillary Expansion (RME) has been used for over a century, its effect on upper airways has not yet adequately been assessed in an evidence-based manner. To investigate the volumetric changes in the upper airway spaces following RME in growing subjects by means of acoustic rhinometry, three-dimensional radiography and digital photogrammetry. Literature search of electronic databases and additional manual searches up to February 2016. Randomized clinical trials, prospective or retrospective controlled clinical trials and cohort clinical studies of at least eight patients, where the RME appliance was left in place for retention, and a maximum follow-up of 8 months post-expansion. After duplicate data extraction and assessment of the risk of bias, the mean differences and 95 per cent confidence intervals (CIs) of upper airway volume changes were calculated with random-effects meta-analyses, followed by subgroup analyses, meta-regressions, and sensitivity analyses. Twenty studies were eligible for qualitative synthesis, of which 17 (3 controlled clinical studies and 14 cohort studies) were used in quantitative analysis. As far as total airway volume is concerned patients treated with RME showed a significant increase post-expansion (5 studies; increase from baseline: 1218.3mm3; 95 per cent CI: 702.0 to 1734.6mm3), which did not seem to considerably diminish after the retention period (11 studies; increase from baseline: 1143.9mm3; 95 per cent CI: 696.9 to 1590.9mm3). However, the overall quality of evidence was judged as very low, due to methodological limitations of the included studies, absence of untreated control groups, and inconsistency among studies. RME seems to be associated with an increase in the nasal cavity volume in the short and in the long term. However, additional well-conducted prospective controlled clinical studies are needed to confirm the present findings. None. Australian Society of Orthodontics Foundation for Research and Education Inc. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Orthodontic Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 1. Use of hydrogeologic information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

A new method is developed to efficiently compute exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output (or other function of parameters) g(β) derived from a groundwater flow model. The method is general in that parameter uncertainty can be specified by any statistical distribution having a log probability density function (log pdf) that can be expanded in a Taylor series. However, for this study parameter uncertainty is specified by a statistical multivariate beta distribution that incorporates hydrogeologic information in the form of the investigator's best estimates of parameters and a grouping of random variables representing possible parameter values so that each group is defined by maximum and minimum bounds and an ordering according to increasing value. The new method forms the confidence intervals from maximum and minimum limits of g(β) on a contour of a linear combination of (1) the quadratic form for the parameters used by Cooley and Vecchia (1987) and (2) the log pdf for the multivariate beta distribution. Three example problems are used to compare characteristics of the confidence intervals for hydraulic head obtained using different weights for the linear combination. Different weights generally produced similar confidence intervals, whereas the method of Cooley and Vecchia (1987) often produced much larger confidence intervals.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing.

PubMed

Oono, Ryoko

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions 'how and why are communities different?' This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences.

The Applicability of Confidence Intervals of Quantiles for the Generalized Logistic Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, H.; Heo, J.; Kim, T.; Jung, Y.

2007-12-01

The generalized logistic (GL) distribution has been widely used for frequency analysis. However, there is a little study related to the confidence intervals that indicate the prediction accuracy of distribution for the GL distribution. In this paper, the estimation of the confidence intervals of quantiles for the GL distribution is presented based on the method of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood (ML), and probability weighted moments (PWM) and the asymptotic variances of each quantile estimator are derived as functions of the sample sizes, return periods, and parameters. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are also performed to verify the applicability of the derived confidence intervals of quantile. As the results, the relative bias (RBIAS) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of the confidence intervals generally increase as return period increases and reverse as sample size increases. And PWM for estimating the confidence intervals performs better than the other methods in terms of RRMSE when the data is almost symmetric while ML shows the smallest RBIAS and RRMSE when the data is more skewed and sample size is moderately large. The GL model was applied to fit the distribution of annual maximum rainfall data. The results show that there are little differences in the estimated quantiles between ML and PWM while distinct differences in MOM.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions ‘how and why are communities different?’ This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences. PMID:29253889

Primary repair of penetrating colon injuries: a systematic review.

PubMed

Singer, Marc A; Nelson, Richard L

2002-12-01

Primary repair of penetrating colon injuries is an appealing management option; however, uncertainty about its safety persists. This study was conducted to compare the morbidity and mortality of primary repair with fecal diversion in the management of penetrating colon injuries by use of a meta-analysis of randomized, prospective trials. We searched for prospective, randomized trials in MEDLINE (1966 to November 2001), the Cochrane Library, and EMBase using the terms colon, penetrating, injury, colostomy, prospective, and randomized. Studies were included if they were randomized, controlled trials that compared the outcomes of primary repair with fecal diversion in the management of penetrating colon injuries. Five studies were included. Reviewers performed data extraction independently. Outcomes evaluated from each trial included mortality, total complications, infectious complications, intra-abdominal infections, wound complications, penetrating abdominal trauma index, and length of stay. Peto odds ratios for combined effect were calculated with a 95 percent confidence interval for each outcome. Heterogeneity was also assessed for each outcome. The penetrating abdominal trauma index of included subjects did not differ significantly between studies. Mortality was not significantly different between groups (odds ratio, 1.70; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.51-5.66). However, total complications (odds ratio, 0.28; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.18-0.42), total infectious complications (odds ratio, 0.41; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.27-0.63), abdominal infections including dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.59; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.38-0.94), abdominal infections excluding dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.52; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.31-0.86), wound complications including dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.55; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.34-0.89), and wound complications excluding dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.43; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.25-0.76) all significantly favored primary repair. Meta-analysis of currently published randomized, controlled trials favors primary repair over fecal diversion for penetrating colon injuries.

Bullying and mental health and suicidal behaviour among 14- to 15-year-olds in a representative sample of Australian children.

PubMed

Ford, Rebecca; King, Tania; Priest, Naomi; Kavanagh, Anne

2017-09-01

To provide the first Australian population-based estimates of the association between bullying and adverse mental health outcomes and suicidality among Australian adolescents. Analysis of data from 3537 adolescents, aged 14-15 years from Wave 6 of the K-cohort of Longitudinal Study of Australian Children was conducted. We used Poisson and linear regression to estimate associations between bullying type (none, relational-verbal, physical, both types) and role (no role, victim, bully, victim and bully), and mental health (measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, symptoms of anxiety and depression) and suicidality. Adolescents involved in bullying had significantly increased Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, depression and anxiety scores in all bullying roles and types. In terms of self-harm and suicidality, bully-victims had the highest risk of self-harm (prevalence rate ratio 4.7, 95% confidence interval [3.26, 6.83]), suicidal ideation (prevalence rate ratio 4.3, 95% confidence interval [2.83, 6.49]), suicidal plan (prevalence rate ratio 4.1, 95% confidence interval [2.54, 6.58]) and attempts (prevalence rate ratio 2.7, 95% confidence interval [1.39, 5.13]), followed by victims then bullies. The experience of both relational-verbal and physical bullying was associated with the highest risk of self-harm (prevalence rate ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval [3.15, 6.60]), suicidal ideation or plans (prevalence rate ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval [3.05, 6.95]; and 4.8, 95% confidence interval [3.01, 7.64], respectively) or suicide attempts (prevalence rate ratio 3.5, 95% confidence interval [1.90, 6.30]). This study presents the first national, population-based estimates of the associations between bullying by peers and mental health outcomes in Australian adolescents. The markedly increased risk of poor mental health outcomes, self-harm and suicidal ideation and behaviours among adolescents who experienced bullying highlights the importance of addressing bullying in school settings.

Ethnic variations in morbidity and mortality from lower respiratory tract infections: a retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Steiner, Markus FC; Cezard, Genevieve; Bansal, Narinder; Fischbacher, Colin; Douglas, Anne; Bhopal, Raj; Sheikh, Aziz

2015-01-01

Objective There is evidence of substantial ethnic variations in asthma morbidity and the risk of hospitalisation, but the picture in relation to lower respiratory tract infections is unclear. We carried out an observational study to identify ethnic group differences for lower respiratory tract infections. Design A retrospective, cohort study. Setting Scotland. Participants 4.65 million people on whom information was available from the 2001 census, followed from May 2001 to April 2010. Main outcome measures Hospitalisations and deaths (any time following first hospitalisation) from lower respiratory tract infections, adjusted risk ratios and hazard ratios by ethnicity and sex were calculated. We multiplied ratios and confidence intervals by 100, so the reference Scottish White population’s risk ratio and hazard ratio was 100. Results Among men, adjusted risk ratios for lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation were lower in Other White British (80, 95% confidence interval 73–86) and Chinese (69, 95% confidence interval 56–84) populations and higher in Pakistani groups (152, 95% confidence interval 136–169). In women, results were mostly similar to those in men (e.g. Chinese 68, 95% confidence interval 56–82), although higher adjusted risk ratios were found among women of the Other South Asians group (145, 95% confidence interval 120–175). Survival (adjusted hazard ratio) following lower respiratory tract infection for Pakistani men (54, 95% confidence interval 39–74) and women (31, 95% confidence interval 18–53) was better than the reference population. Conclusions Substantial differences in the rates of lower respiratory tract infections amongst different ethnic groups in Scotland were found. Pakistani men and women had particularly high rates of lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation. The reasons behind the high rates of lower respiratory tract infection in the Pakistani community are now required. PMID:26152675

Diagnostic accuracy of the Amsler grid and the preferential hyperacuity perimetry in the screening of patients with age-related macular degeneration: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Faes, L; Bodmer, N S; Bachmann, L M; Thiel, M A; Schmid, M K

2014-07-01

To clarify the screening potential of the Amsler grid and preferential hyperacuity perimetry (PHP) in detecting or ruling out wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Medline, Scopus and Web of Science (by citation of reference) were searched. Checking of reference lists of review articles and of included articles complemented electronic searches. Papers were selected, assessed, and extracted in duplicate. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Twelve included studies enrolled 903 patients and allowed constructing 27 two-by-two tables. Twelve tables reported on the Amsler grid and its modifications, twelve tables reported on the PHP, one table assessed the MCPT and two tables assessed the M-charts. All but two studies had a case-control design. The pooled sensitivity of studies assessing the Amsler grid was 0.78 (95% confidence intervals; 0.64-0.87), and the pooled specificity was 0.97 (95% confidence intervals; 0.91-0.99). The corresponding positive and negative likelihood ratios were 23.1 (95% confidence intervals; 8.4-64.0) and 0.23 (95% confidence intervals; 0.14-0.39), respectively. The pooled sensitivity of studies assessing the PHP was 0.85 (95% confidence intervals; 0.80-0.89), and specificity was 0.87 (95% confidence intervals; 0.82-0.91). The corresponding positive and negative likelihood ratios were 6.7 (95% confidence intervals; 4.6-9.8) and 0.17 (95% confidence intervals; 0.13-0.23). No pooling was possible for MCPT and M-charts. Results from small preliminary studies show promising test performance characteristics both for the Amsler grid and PHP to rule out wet AMD in the screening setting. To what extent these findings can be transferred to a real clinic practice still needs to be established.

The prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in all-cause and cardiac mortality and morbidity in a population of Danish citizens.

PubMed

Elming, H; Holm, E; Jun, L; Torp-Pedersen, C; Køber, L; Kircshoff, M; Malik, M; Camm, J

1998-09-01

To evaluate the prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in total and in cardiovascular mortality, as well as in cardiac morbidity, in a general population. The QT interval was measured in all leads from a standard 12-lead ECG in a random sample of 1658 women and 1797 men aged 30-60 years. QT interval dispersion was calculated from the maximal difference between QT intervals in any two leads. All cause mortality over 13 years, and cardiovascular mortality as well as cardiac morbidity over 11 years, were the main outcome parameters. Subjects with a prolonged QT interval (430 ms or more) or prolonged QT interval dispersion (80 ms or more) were at higher risk of cardiovascular death and cardiac morbidity than subjects whose QT interval was less than 360 ms, or whose QT interval dispersion was less than 30 ms. Cardiovascular death relative risk ratios, adjusted for age, gender, myocardial infarct, angina pectoris, diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, smoking habits, serum cholesterol level, and heart rate were 2.9 for the QT interval (95% confidence interval 1.1-7.8) and 4.4 for QT interval dispersion (95% confidence interval 1.0-19-1). Fatal and non-fatal cardiac morbidity relative risk ratios were similar, at 2.7 (95% confidence interval 1.4-5.5) for the QT interval and 2.2 (95% confidence interval 1.1-4.0) for QT interval dispersion. Prolongation of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion independently affected the prognosis of cardiovascular mortality and cardiac fatal and non-fatal morbidity in a general population over 11 years.

Outbreak of scrub typhus in Puducherry & Tamil Nadu during cooler months

PubMed Central

Stephen, Selvaraj; Sangeetha, Balakrishnan; Ambroise, Stanley; Sarangapani, Kengamuthu; Gunasekaran, Dhandapany; Hanifah, Mohamed; Somasundaram, Subramanian

2015-01-01

Background & objectives: The southern part of India has witnessed an increase in scrub typhus (ST) during the past ten years. ST outbreaks occurred during winter months but at intervals of one to three years. With only a few reports of ST in Puducherry, this study was undertaken to look for the persistence of ST cases in Puducherry and Tamil Nadu in the winter months. Methods: During relatively cooler months of September, 2012 to March, 2013, a total of 45 patients with fever and clinical suspicion of ST and who provided both acute and convalescent blood samples were included. Total WBC, platelet counts, serum creatinine, liver enzymes levels and a rapid immunochromatographic test (RICT) for ST were first done. Paired serum samples were analysed by two specific tests - ST IgM and IgG ELISA- and a non-specific, but widely used Weil-Felix (WF) test. Results: Of the 45 patients, 21 adults and seven children were confirmed as ST based on clinical and laboratory findings, and positivity in specific serological test(s). Setting ST IgM and IgG ELISA as reference, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for RICT were 91.67, 85.71 per cent; 90.48, 100 per cent; 91.67, 100 per cent and 90.48, 80.95 per cent, respectively. Similarly, for WF the values were 83.33, 75 per cent; 95.24, 100 per cent; 95.24, 100 per cent and 83.33, 70.83 per cent, respectively. Interpretation & conclusions: ST continues to persist in the cooler months in Puducherry and neighbouring Tamil Nadu with fever and myalgia as prominent features. None of the tests evaluated in this study was found to be ideal, but ST IgM/IgG ELISA was useful for batch testing and the non-specific WF test can be used in resource poor settings. PMID:26658595

Early definitive treatment rate as a quality indicator of care in acute gallstone pancreatitis.

PubMed

Green, R; Charman, S C; Palser, T

2017-11-01

Early definitive treatment (cholecystectomy or endoscopic sphincterotomy in the same admission or within 2 weeks after discharge) of gallstone disease after a biliary attack of acute pancreatitis is standard of care. This study investigated whether compliance with early definitive treatment for acute gallstone pancreatitis can be used as a care quality indicator for the condition. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the Hospital Episode Statistics database. All emergency admissions to National Health Service hospitals in England with a first time diagnosis of acute gallstone pancreatitis in the financial years 2008, 2009 and 2010 were examined. Trends in early definitive treatment between hospital trusts were examined and patient morbidity outcomes were determined. During the study interval there were 19 510 patients with an overall rate of early definitive treatment at 34·7 (range 9·4-84·7) per cent. In the 1-year follow-up period, 4661 patients (23·9 per cent) had one or more emergency readmissions for complications related to gallstone pancreatitis. Of these, 2692 (57·8 per cent) were readmissions for acute pancreatitis; 911 (33·8 per cent) were within the first 2 weeks of discharge, with the remaining 1781 (66·2 per cent) occurring after the point at which definitive treatment should have been received. Early definitive treatment resulted in a 39 per cent reduction in readmission risk (adjusted risk ratio (RR) 0·61, 95 per cent c.i. 0·58 to 0·65). The risk was further reduced for acute pancreatitis readmissions to 54 per cent in the early definitive treatment group (adjusted RR 0·46, 0·42 to 0·51). In acute gallstone pancreatitis, compliance with recommended early definitive treatment varied considerably, with associated variation in outcomes. Compliance should be used as a quality indicator to improve care. © 2017 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle factors and burden of morbidity associated with self-reported hearing and vision impairments in older British community-dwelling men: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Liljas, A E M; Wannamethee, S G; Whincup, P H; Papacosta, O; Walters, K; Iliffe, S; Lennon, L T; Carvalho, L A; Ramsay, S E

2016-06-01

Hearing and vision problems are common in older adults. We investigated the association of self-reported sensory impairment with lifestyle factors, chronic conditions, physical functioning, quality of life and social interaction. A population-based cross-sectional study of participants of the British Regional Heart Study aged 63-85 years. A total of 3981 men (82% response rate) provided data. Twenty-seven per cent (n = 1074) reported hearing impairment including being able to hear with aid (n = 482), being unable to hear (no aid) (n = 424) and being unable to hear despite aid (n = 168). Three per cent (n = 124) reported vision impairment. Not being able to hear, irrespective of use of hearing aid, was associated with poor quality of life, poor social interaction and poor physical functioning. Men who could not hear despite hearing aid were more likely to report coronary heart disease (CHD) [age-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) 1.89 (95% confidence interval 1.36-2.63)]. Vision impairment was associated with symptoms of CHD including breathlessness [OR 2.06 (1.38-3.06)] and chest pain [OR 1.58 (1.07-2.35)]. Vision impairment was also associated with poor quality of life, poor social interaction and poor physical functioning. Sensory impairment is associated with poor physical functioning, poor health and poor social interaction in older men. Further research is warranted on pathways underlying these associations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

CFHTLenS: a Gaussian likelihood is a sufficient approximation for a cosmological analysis of third-order cosmic shear statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, P.; Semboloni, E.; van Waerbeke, L.; Hoekstra, H.; Erben, T.; Fu, L.; Harnois-Déraps, J.; Heymans, C.; Hildebrandt, H.; Kilbinger, M.; Kitching, T. D.; Miller, L.; Schrabback, T.

2015-05-01

We study the correlations of the shear signal between triplets of sources in the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Lensing Survey (CFHTLenS) to probe cosmological parameters via the matter bispectrum. In contrast to previous studies, we adopt a non-Gaussian model of the data likelihood which is supported by our simulations of the survey. We find that for state-of-the-art surveys, similar to CFHTLenS, a Gaussian likelihood analysis is a reasonable approximation, albeit small differences in the parameter constraints are already visible. For future surveys we expect that a Gaussian model becomes inaccurate. Our algorithm for a refined non-Gaussian analysis and data compression is then of great utility especially because it is not much more elaborate if simulated data are available. Applying this algorithm to the third-order correlations of shear alone in a blind analysis, we find a good agreement with the standard cosmological model: Σ _8=σ _8(Ω _m/0.27)^{0.64}=0.79^{+0.08}_{-0.11} for a flat Λ cold dark matter cosmology with h = 0.7 ± 0.04 (68 per cent credible interval). Nevertheless our models provide only moderately good fits as indicated by χ2/dof = 2.9, including a 20 per cent rms uncertainty in the predicted signal amplitude. The models cannot explain a signal drop on scales around 15 arcmin, which may be caused by systematics. It is unclear whether the discrepancy can be fully explained by residual point spread function systematics of which we find evidence at least on scales of a few arcmin. Therefore we need a better understanding of higher order correlations of cosmic shear and their systematics to confidently apply them as cosmological probes.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of predictors of post-thyroidectomy hypocalcaemia.

PubMed

Edafe, O; Antakia, R; Laskar, N; Uttley, L; Balasubramanian, S P

2014-03-01

Hypocalcaemia is common after thyroidectomy. Accurate prediction and appropriate management may help reduce morbidity and hospital stay. The aim of this study was to perform a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of predictors of post-thyroidectomy hypocalcaemia. A systematic search of PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library databases was undertaken, and the quality of manuscripts assessed using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Some 115 observational studies were included. The median (i.q.r.) incidence of transient and permanent hypocalcaemia was 27 (19-38) and 1 (0-3) per cent respectively. Independent predictors of transient hypocalcaemia included levels of preoperative calcium, perioperative parathyroid hormone (PTH), preoperative 25-hydroxyvitamin D and postoperative magnesium. Clinical predictors included surgery for recurrent goitre and reoperation for bleeding. A calcium level lower than 1·88 mmol/l at 24 h after surgery, identification of fewer than two parathyroid glands (PTGs) at surgery, reoperation for bleeding, Graves' disease and heavier thyroid specimens were identified as independent predictors of permanent hypocalcaemia in multivariable analysis. Factors associated with transient hypocalcaemia in meta-analyses were inadvertent PTG excision (odds ratio (OR) 1·90, 95 per cent confidence interval 1·31 to 2·74), PTG autotransplantation (OR 2·03, 1·44 to 2·86), Graves' disease (OR 1·75, 1·34 to 2·28) and female sex (OR 2·28, 1·53 to 3·40). Perioperative PTH, preoperative vitamin D and postoperative changes in calcium are biochemical predictors of post-thyroidectomy hypocalcaemia. Clinical predictors include female sex, Graves' disease, need for parathyroid autotransplantation and inadvertent excision of PTGs. © 2014 BJS Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cost of delivering secondary-level health care services through public sector district hospitals in India.

PubMed

Prinja, Shankar; Balasubramanian, Deepak; Jeet, Gursimer; Verma, Ramesh; Kumar, Dinesh; Bahuguna, Pankaj; Kaur, Manmeet; Kumar, Rajesh

2017-09-01

Despite an impetus for strengthening public sector district hospitals for provision of secondary health care in India, there is lack of robust evidence on cost of services provided through these district hospitals. In this study, an attempt was made to determine the unit cost of an outpatient visit consultation, inpatient bed-day of hospitalization, surgical procedure and overall per-capita cost of providing secondary care through district hospitals. Economic costing of five randomly selected district hospitals in two north Indian States - Haryana and Punjab, was undertaken. Cost analysis was done using a health system perspective and employing bottom-up costing methodology. Quantity of all resources - capital or recurrent, used for delivering services was measured and valued. Median unit costs were estimated along with their 95 per cent confidence intervals. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken to assess the effect of uncertainties in prices and other assumptions; and to generalize the findings for Indian set-up. The overall annual cost of delivering secondary-level health care services through a public sector district hospital in north India was ' 11,44,13,282 [US Dollars (USD) 2,103,185]. Human resources accounted for 53 per cent of the overall cost. The unit cost of an inpatient bed-day, surgical procedure and outpatient consultation was ' 844 (USD 15.5), ' 3481 (USD 64) and ' 170 (USD 3.1), respectively. With the current set of resource allocation, per-capita cost of providing health care through district hospitals in north India was ' 139 (USD 2.5). The estimates obtained in our study can be used for Fiscal planning of scaling up secondary-level health services. Further, these may be particularly useful for future research such as benefit-incidence analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis and national health accounts including disease-specific accounts in India.

Epidemiology and socio-demographic risk factors of self-immolation: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Parvareh, Maryam; Hajizadeh, Mohammad; Rezaei, Satar; Nouri, Bijan; Moradi, Ghobad; Esmail Nasab, Nader

2018-06-01

Self-immolation or self-inflicted burn is the most tragic and violent method of suicide. The higher prevalence of this dramatic phenomenon in Iran is a serious social and health problem. In this study, we conducted a meta-analysis to combine the results from available studies to examine the epidemiology and socio-demographic characteristics of individuals who attempted self-immolation in Iran. Pertinent studies were identified by searching the electronic bibliographic databases including PubMed, Scopus, Science Direct, Iran Medex, Magiran, Medlib and Scientific Information Database (SID) (2000-October 2016). Meta-analysis was used to summarize the research results on socio-demographic risk factors of self-immolation in Iran. The STROBE checklist was used to assess quality of the study. The random effect model was employed in the meta-analysis to account for the observed heterogeneity among the selected studies. Twenty-nine studies (sample size=5717) were included in the meta-analysis. The estimated average age of individuals who attempted self-immolation was 27.31 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 25.81-28.81) years. Women account for 70% (95% CI: 64-77) of all self-immolation attempts in Iran. Thirty-nine (95% CI: 34-43) per cent of all self-immolation were among singles. Nineteen (95% CI: 16-22) per cent of self-immolators had mental disorder. Meta-regression model showed that the average age of individuals who attempted self-immolation increased significantly over the period between 2000 to 2016 (P-value=0.006). Our study indicated that individuals who attempted self-immolation in Iran were mainly women, married and young adults. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Global covariation of carbon turnover times with climate in terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Carvalhais, Nuno; Forkel, Matthias; Khomik, Myroslava; Bellarby, Jessica; Jung, Martin; Migliavacca, Mirco; Mu, Mingquan; Saatchi, Sassan; Santoro, Maurizio; Thurner, Martin; Weber, Ulrich; Ahrens, Bernhard; Beer, Christian; Cescatti, Alessandro; Randerson, James T; Reichstein, Markus

2014-10-09

The response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to climate change is among the largest uncertainties affecting future climate change projections. The feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate is partly determined by changes in the turnover time of carbon in land ecosystems, which in turn is an ecosystem property that emerges from the interplay between climate, soil and vegetation type. Here we present a global, spatially explicit and observation-based assessment of whole-ecosystem carbon turnover times that combines new estimates of vegetation and soil organic carbon stocks and fluxes. We find that the overall mean global carbon turnover time is 23(+7)(-4) years (95 per cent confidence interval). On average, carbon resides in the vegetation and soil near the Equator for a shorter time than at latitudes north of 75° north (mean turnover times of 15 and 255 years, respectively). We identify a clear dependence of the turnover time on temperature, as expected from our present understanding of temperature controls on ecosystem dynamics. Surprisingly, our analysis also reveals a similarly strong association between turnover time and precipitation. Moreover, we find that the ecosystem carbon turnover times simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate/carbon-cycle models vary widely and that numerical simulations, on average, tend to underestimate the global carbon turnover time by 36 per cent. The models show stronger spatial relationships with temperature than do observation-based estimates, but generally do not reproduce the strong relationships with precipitation and predict faster carbon turnover in many semi-arid regions. Our findings suggest that future climate/carbon-cycle feedbacks may depend more strongly on changes in the hydrological cycle than is expected at present and is considered in Earth system models.

The effect of strategies of personal resilience on depression recovery in an Australian cohort: a mixed methods study.

PubMed

Griffiths, Frances E; Boardman, Felicity K; Chondros, Patty; Dowrick, Christopher F; Densley, Konstancja; Hegarty, Kelsey L; Gunn, Jane

2015-01-01

Strategies of personal resilience enable successful adaptation in adversity. Among patients experiencing depression symptoms, we explored which personal resilience strategies they find most helpful and tested the hypothesis that use of these strategies improves depression recovery. We used interview and survey data from the Diagnosis, Management and Outcomes of Depression in Primary Care 2005 cohort of patients experiencing depression symptoms in Victoria, Australia. A total of 564 participants answered a computer-assisted telephone interview question at 12 months follow-up, about what they found most helpful for their depression, stress or worries. Depressive disorder and severity were measured at annual follow-up using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview and the Patient Health Questionnaire self-rating questionnaire. Using interview responses, we categorised participants as users or not of strategies of personal resilience, specifically, drawing primarily on expanding their own inner resources or pre-existing relationships: 316 (56%) were categorised as primarily users of personal resilience strategies. Of these, 193 (61%) reported expanding inner resources, 79 (25%) drawing on relationships and 44 (14%) reported both. There was no association between drawing on relationships and depression outcome. There was evidence supporting an association between expanding inner resources and depression outcome: 25 per cent of users having major depressive disorder 1 year later compared to 38 per cent of non-users (adjusted odds ratio: 0.59, confidence interval: 0.36-0.97). This is the first study to show improved outcome for depression for those who identify as most helpful the use of personal resilience strategies. The difference in outcome is important as expanding inner resources includes a range of low intensity, yet commonly available strategies. © The Author(s) 2014.

Chair rise capacity and associated factors in older home-care clients.

PubMed

Tiihonen, Miia; Hartikainen, Sirpa; Nykänen, Irma

2017-07-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the ability of older home-care clients to perform the five times chair rise test and associated personal characteristics, nutritional status and functioning. The study sample included 267 home-care clients aged ≥75 years living in Eastern and Central Finland. The home-care clients were interviewed at home by home-care nurses, nutritionists and pharmacists. The collected data contained sociodemographic factors, functional ability (Barthel Index, IADL), cognitive functioning (MMSE), nutritional status (MNA), depressive symptoms (GDS-15), medical diagnoses and drug use. The primary outcome was the ability to perform the five times chair rise test. Fifty-one per cent ( n=135) of the home-care clients were unable to complete the five times chair rise test. Twenty-three per cent ( n=64) of the home-care clients had good chair rise capacity (≤17 seconds). In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, fewer years of education (odds ratio [OR] = 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.18), lower ADL (OR = 1.54, 95% CI 1.34-1.78) and low MNA scores (OR = 1.12, 95% CI 1.04-1.20) and a higher number of co-morbidities (OR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.02-1.43) were associated with inability to complete the five times chair rise test. Poor functional mobility, which was associated with less education, a high number of co-morbidities and poor nutritional status, was common among older home-care clients. To maintain and to prevent further decline in functional mobility, physical training and nutritional services are needed. (NutOrMed, ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02214758).

The VMC survey - XXXI. The spatially resolved star formation history of the main body of the Small Magellanic Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubele, Stefano; Pastorelli, Giada; Girardi, Léo; Cioni, Maria-Rosa L.; Zaggia, Simone; Marigo, Paola; Bekki, Kenji; Bressan, Alessandro; Clementini, Gisella; de Grijs, Richard; Emerson, Jim; Groenewegen, Martin A. T.; Ivanov, Valentin D.; Muraveva, Tatiana; Nanni, Ambra; Oliveira, Joana M.; Ripepi, Vincenzo; Sun, Ning-Chen; van Loon, Jacco Th

2018-05-01

We recover the spatially resolved star formation history across the entire main body and Wing of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), using fourteen deep tile images from the VISTA survey of the Magellanic Clouds (VMC), in the YJK_s filters. The analysis is performed on 168 subregions of size 0.143 deg2, covering a total contiguous area of 23.57 deg2. We apply a colour-magnitude diagram (CMD) reconstruction method that returns the best-fitting star formation rate SFR(t), age-metallicity relation, distance and mean reddening, together with their confidence intervals, for each subregion. With respect to previous analyses, we use a far larger set of VMC data, updated stellar models, and fit the two available CMDs (Y-K_s versus K_s and J-K_s versus K_s) independently. The results allow us to derive a more complete and more reliable picture of how the mean distances, extinction values, star formation rate, and metallicities vary across the SMC, and provide a better description of the populations that form its Bar and Wing. We conclude that the SMC has formed a total mass of (5.31 ± 0.05) × 108 M⊙ in stars over its lifetime. About two thirds of this mass is expected to be still locked in stars and stellar remnants. 50 per cent of the mass was formed prior to an age of 6.3 Gyr, and 80 per cent was formed between 8 and 3.5 Gyr ago. We also illustrate the likely distribution of stellar ages and metallicities in different parts of the CMD, to aid the interpretation of data from future astrometric and spectroscopic surveys of the SMC.

Seroprevalence of transplacentally acquired measles antibodies in HIV-exposed versus HIV-unexposed infants at six months of age

PubMed Central

Jain, Sneha; Seth, Anju; Khare, Shashi; Chandra, Jagdish

2017-01-01

Background & objectives: Measles infection is reported to be more severe, prolonged and associated with a higher complication rate in children with HIV infection. Reports indicate that infants born to HIV-infected women [HIV exposed infants (HEI)] may be more vulnerable to measles. The World Health Organization recommends measles vaccination starting at six months of age in these infants who may be HIV-infected themselves. However, in India, they are given measles vaccination at nine months of age like all other infants. In this study, the seroprevalence of transplacentally acquired measles antibodies was compared in HEI and unexposed infants (HUnI) at six months of age and the proportion of HEI undergoing seroconversion after immunization with measles vaccine was assessed. Methods: In this prospective longitudinal study, measles IgG antibodies were estimated in serum of 49 HEI and 50 HUnI aged 6-7 months. Measles vaccine was then administered to HEI. Assessment for measles IgG antibodies was repeated 8-12 wk post-immunization. Results: Measles IgG antibodies were detected in two of 49 (4.1%) HEI and 16 of 50 (32%) HUnI. HEI were 11 times more likely to lack measles antibodies as compared to HUnI (odds ratio=11.05, 95% confidence interval=2.989-40.908). Post-vaccination, seroprevalence of measles antibodies increased to 38.5 per cent (P< 0.001) in HEI compared to 4 per cent at baseline. Interpretation & conclusions: Most HEI lacked measles antibodies at six months age and were, therefore, more vulnerable to measles than HUnI. Seroconversion in response to a single dose of measles vaccine administered at six months age was low in these infants, signifying the need of additional dose(s) of measles/measles-containing vaccine. PMID:28862187

General practitioners' knowledge and management of viral hepatitis in the migrant population.

PubMed

Guirgis, M; Yan, K; Bu, Y M; Zekry, A

2012-05-01

Escalating morbidity and mortality associated with hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections represent a major health burden in Australia, particularly among migrants from endemic areas who may present late. We evaluated the knowledge and educational needs of general practitioners (GPs) in the St George Division, Sydney which serves a large migrant population. The aims of the study were to identify gaps in knowledge about viral hepatitis that may affect management and referral patterns. GPs completed a survey comprised of 15 questions. They were also invited to comment on barriers to managing viral hepatitis in migrant patients. A 44% response rate was achieved from 280 eligible GPs. Forty-two per cent of GPs lacked confidence in interpreting HCV serology and 20% for HBV serology. Twenty-two per cent of GPs did not recognise HCC as a complication of HBV and 18% for HCV. Twenty per cent of GPs were unaware of treatment for HBV. Forty-seven per cent of GPs were uncertain whether pregnant women could receive HCV treatment. Twenty-three per cent and 21% of respondents believed that all HCV- or HBV-infected mothers, respectively, should not breast-feed. Eighty-nine per cent of GPs identified language difficulties as the main barrier to treatment among the migrant population. There were gaps in the knowledge of GPs particularly concerning natural history, diagnosis, treatment availability and management of pregnant or lactating women with viral hepatitis. Specific educational initiatives targeting these deficits are required as well as increased availability of language resources for managing patients from a non-English-speaking background. © 2011 The Authors. Internal Medicine Journal © 2011 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

Intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium and the risk of stroke among men.

PubMed

Adebamowo, Sally N; Spiegelman, Donna; Flint, Alan J; Willett, Walter C; Rexrode, Kathryn M

2015-10-01

Intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium have been inversely associated with the incidence of hypertension, a known risk factor for stroke. However, only a few studies have examined intakes of these cations in relation to risk of stroke. The aim of this study was to investigate whether high intake of magnesium, potassium, and calcium is associated with reduced stroke risk among men. We prospectively examined the associations between intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium from diet and supplements, and the risk of incident stroke among 42 669 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, aged 40 to 75 years and free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease and cancer at baseline in 1986. We calculated the hazard ratio of total, ischemic, and haemorrhagic strokes by quintiles of each cation intake, and of a combined dietary score of all three cations, using multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. During 24 years of follow-up, 1547 total stroke events were documented. In multivariate analyses, the relative risks and 95% confidence intervals of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile were 0·87 (95% confidence interval, 0·74-1·02; P, trend = 0·04) for dietary magnesium, 0·89 (95% confidence interval, 0·76-1·05; P, trend = 0·10) for dietary potassium, and 0·89 (95% confidence interval, 0·75-1·04; P, trend = 0·25) for dietary calcium intake. The relative risk of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile was 0·74 (95% confidence interval, 0·59-0·93; P, trend = 0·003) for supplemental magnesium, 0·66 (95% confidence interval, 0·50-0·86; P, trend = 0·002) for supplemental potassium, and 1·01 (95% confidence interval, 0·84-1·20; P, trend = 0·83) for supplemental calcium intake. For total intake (dietary and supplemental), the relative risk of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile was 0·83 (95% confidence interval, 0·70-0·99; P, trend = 0·04) for magnesium, 0·88 (95% confidence interval, 0·75-4; P, trend = 6) for potassium, and 3 (95% confidence interval, 79-09; P, trend = 84) for calcium. Men in the highest quintile for a combined dietary score of all three cations had a multivariate relative risk of 0·79 (95% confidence interval, 0·67-0·92; P, trend = 0·008) for total stroke, compared with those in the lowest. A diet rich in magnesium, potassium, and calcium may contribute to reduced risk of stroke among men. Because of significant collinearity, the independent contribution of each cation is difficult to define. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

Neuraxial analgesia to increase the success rate of external cephalic version: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Magro-Malosso, Elena Rita; Saccone, Gabriele; Di Tommaso, Mariarosaria; Mele, Michele; Berghella, Vincenzo

2016-09-01

External cephalic version is a medical procedure in which the fetus is externally manipulated to assume the cephalic presentation. The use of neuraxial analgesia for facilitating the version has been evaluated in several randomized clinical trials, but its potential effects are still controversial. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of neuraxial analgesia as an intervention to increase the success rate of external cephalic version. Searches were performed in electronic databases with the use of a combination of text words related to external cephalic version and neuraxial analgesia from the inception of each database to January 2016. We included all randomized clinical trials of women, with a gestational age ≥36 weeks and breech or transverse fetal presentation, undergoing external cephalic version who were randomized to neuraxial analgesia, including spinal, epidural, or combined spinal-epidural techniques (ie, intervention group) or to a control group (either intravenous analgesia or no treatment). The primary outcome was the successful external cephalic version. The summary measures were reported as relative risk or as mean differences with a 95% confidence interval. Nine randomized clinical trials (934 women) were included in this review. Women who received neuraxial analgesia had a significantly higher incidence of successful external cephalic version (58.4% vs 43.1%; relative risk, 1.44, 95% confidence interval, 1.27-1.64), cephalic presentation in labor (55.1% vs 40.2%; relative risk, 1.37, 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.73), and vaginal delivery (54.0% vs 44.6%; relative risk, 1.21, 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.41) compared with those who did not. Women who were randomized to the intervention group also had a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery (46.0% vs 55.3%; relative risk, 0.83, 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.97), maternal discomfort (1.2% vs 9.3%; relative risk, 0.12, 95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.99), and lower pain, assessed by the visual analog scale pain score (mean difference, -4.52 points, 95% confidence interval, -5.35 to 3.69) compared with the control group. The incidences of emergency cesarean delivery (1.6% vs 2.5%; relative risk, 0.63, 95% confidence interval, 0.24-1.70), transient bradycardia (11.8% vs 8.3%; relative risk, 1.42, 95% confidence interval, 0.72-2.80), nonreassuring fetal testing, excluding transient bradycardia, after external cephalic version (6.9% vs 7.4%; relative risk, 0.93, 95% confidence interval, 0.53-1.64), and abruption placentae (0.4% vs 0.4%; relative risk, 1.01, 95% confidence interval, 0.06-16.1) were similar. Administration of neuraxial analgesia significantly increases the success rate of external cephalic version among women with malpresentation at term or late preterm, which then significantly increases the incidence of vaginal delivery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of same-admission versus interval cholecystectomy after mild gallstone pancreatitis in the PONCHO trial.

PubMed

da Costa, D W; Dijksman, L M; Bouwense, S A; Schepers, N J; Besselink, M G; van Santvoort, H C; Boerma, D; Gooszen, H G; Dijkgraaf, M G W

2016-11-01

Same-admission cholecystectomy is indicated after gallstone pancreatitis to reduce the risk of recurrent disease or other gallstone-related complications, but its impact on overall costs is unclear. This study analysed the cost-effectiveness of same-admission versus interval cholecystectomy after mild gallstone pancreatitis. In a multicentre RCT (Pancreatitis of biliary Origin: optimal timiNg of CHOlecystectomy; PONCHO) patients with mild gallstone pancreatitis were randomized before discharge to either cholecystectomy within 72 h (same-admission cholecystectomy) or cholecystectomy after 25-30 days (interval cholecystectomy). Healthcare use of all patients was recorded prospectively using clinical report forms. Unit costs of resources used were determined, and patients completed multiple Health and Labour Questionnaires to record pancreatitis-related absence from work. Cost-effectiveness analyses were performed from societal and healthcare perspectives, with the costs per readmission prevented as primary outcome with a time horizon of 6 months. All 264 trial participants were included in the present analysis, 128 randomized to same-admission cholecystectomy and 136 to interval cholecystectomy. Same-admission cholecystectomy reduced the risk of acute readmission for recurrent gallstone-related complications from 16·9 to 4·7 per cent (P = 0·002). Mean total costs from a societal perspective were €234 (95 per cent c.i. -1249 to 738) less per patient in the same-admission cholecystectomy group. Same-admission cholecystectomy was superior to interval cholecystectomy, with a societal incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of -€1918 to prevent one readmission for gallstone-related complications. In mild biliary pancreatitis, same-admission cholecystectomy was more effective and less costly than interval cholecystectomy. © 2016 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spiral model of pitch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, James D.

2003-10-01

A spiral model of pitch interrelates tone chroma, tone height, equal temperament scales, and a cochlear map. Donkin suggested in 1870 that the pitch of tones could be well represented by an equiangular spiral. More recently, the cylindrical helix has been popular for representing tone chroma and tone height. Here it is shown that tone chroma, tone height, and cochlear position can be conveniently related to tone frequency via a planar spiral. For this ``equal-temperament spiral,'' (ET Spiral) tone chroma is conceived as a circular array with semitones at 30° intervals. The frequency of sound on the cent scale (re 16.351 Hz) is represented by the radius of the spiral defined by r=(1200/2π)θr, where θr is in radians. By these definitions, one revolution represents one octave, 1200 cents, 30° represents a semitone, the radius relates θ to cents in accordance with equal temperament (ET) tuning, and the arclength of the spiral matches the mapping of sound frequency to the basilar membrane. Thus, the ET Spiral gives tone chroma as θ, tone height as the cent scale, and the cochlear map as the arclength. The possible implications and directions for further work are discussed.

Add-On Antihypertensive Medications to Angiotensin-Aldosterone System Blockers in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness Study.

PubMed

Schroeder, Emily B; Chonchol, Michel; Shetterly, Susan M; Powers, J David; Adams, John L; Schmittdiel, Julie A; Nichols, Gregory A; O'Connor, Patrick J; Steiner, John F

2018-05-07

In individuals with diabetes, the comparative effectiveness of add-on antihypertensive medications added to an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin II receptor blocker on the risk of significant kidney events is unknown. We used an observational, multicenter cohort of 21,897 individuals with diabetes to compare individuals who added β -blockers, dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers, loop diuretics, or thiazide diuretics to angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers. We examined the hazard of significant kidney events, cardiovascular events, and death using Cox proportional hazard models with propensity score weighting. The composite significant kidney event end point was defined as the first occurrence of a ≥30% decline in eGFR to an eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , initiation of dialysis, or kidney transplant. The composite cardiovascular event end point was defined as the first occurrence of hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, or congestive heart failure; coronary artery bypass grafting; or percutaneous coronary intervention, and it was only examined in those free of cardiovascular disease at baseline. Over a maximum of 5 years, there were 4707 significant kidney events, 1498 deaths, and 818 cardiovascular events. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios for significant kidney events for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics were 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.74 to 0.89), 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.58 to 0.78), and 1.19 (95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.41), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios of mortality for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics were 1.19 (95% confidence interval, 0.97 to 1.44), 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.52 to 1.03), and 1.67 (95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 2.13), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios of cardiovascular events for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics compared with thiazide diuretics were 1.65 (95% confidence interval, 1.39 to 1.96), 1.05 (95% confidence interval, 0.80 to 1.39), and 1.55 (95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 2.27), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, calcium channel blockers were associated with a lower risk of significant kidney events and a similar risk of cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Surprising dissimilarities in a newly formed pair of `identical twin' stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stassun, Keivan G.; Mathieu, Robert D.; Cargile, Phillip A.; Aarnio, Alicia N.; Stempels, Eric; Geller, Aaron

2008-06-01

The mass and chemical composition of a star are the primary determinants of its basic physical properties-radius, temperature and luminosity-and how those properties evolve with time. Accordingly, two stars born at the same time, from the same natal material and with the same mass, are `identical twins,' and as such might be expected to possess identical physical attributes. We have discovered in the Orion nebula a pair of stellar twins in a newborn binary star system. Each star in the binary has a mass of 0.41+/-0.01 solar masses, identical to within 2per cent. Here we report that these twin stars have surface temperatures differing by ~300K (~10per cent) and luminosities differing by ~50per cent, both at high confidence level. Preliminary results indicate that the stars' radii also differ, by 5-10per cent. These surprising dissimilarities suggest that one of the twins may have been delayed by several hundred thousand years in its formation relative to its sibling. Such a delay could only have been detected in a very young, definitively equal-mass binary system. Our findings reveal cosmic limits on the age synchronization of young binary stars, often used as tests for the age calibrations of star-formation models.

Maternal steroid therapy for fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ciardulli, Andrea; D'Antonio, Francesco; Magro-Malosso, Elena R; Manzoli, Lamberto; Anisman, Paul; Saccone, Gabriele; Berghella, Vincenzo

2018-03-07

To explore the effect of maternal fluorinated steroid therapy on fetuses affected by second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block. Studies reporting the outcome of fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block diagnosed on prenatal ultrasound and treated with fluorinated steroids compared with those not treated were included. The primary outcome was the overall progression of congenital atrioventricular block to either continuous or intermittent third-degree congenital atrioventricular block at birth. Meta-analyses of proportions using random effect model and meta-analyses using individual data random-effect logistic regression were used. Five studies (71 fetuses) were included. The progression rate to congenital atrioventricular block at birth in fetuses treated with steroids was 52% (95% confidence interval 23-79) and in fetuses not receiving steroid therapy 73% (95% confidence interval 39-94). The overall rate of regression to either first-degree, intermittent first-/second-degree or sinus rhythm in fetuses treated with steroids was 25% (95% confidence interval 12-41) compared with 23% (95% confidence interval 8-44) in those not treated. Stable (constant) second-degree congenital atrioventricular block at birth was present in 11% (95% confidence interval 2-27) of cases in the treated group and in none of the newborns in the untreated group, whereas complete regression to sinus rhythm occurred in 21% (95% confidence interval 6-42) of fetuses receiving steroids vs. 9% (95% confidence interval 0-41) of those untreated. There is still limited evidence as to the benefit of administered fluorinated steroids in terms of affecting outcome of fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Active management of the third stage of labor with and without controlled cord traction: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Du, Yongming; Ye, Man; Zheng, Feiyun

2014-07-01

To determine the specific effect of controlled cord traction in the third stage of labor in the prevention of postpartum hemorrhage. We searched PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science (inception to 30 October 2013). Randomized controlled trials comparing controlled cord traction with hands-off management in the third stage of labor were included. Five randomized controlled trials involving a total of 30 532 participants were eligible. No significant difference was found between controlled cord traction and hands-off management groups with respect to the incidence of severe postpartum hemorrhage (relative risk 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.77-1.08), need for blood transfusion (relative risk 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.69-1.33) or therapeutic uterotonics (relative risk 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.88-1.01). However, controlled cord traction reduced the incidence of postpartum hemorrhage in general (relative risk 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.87-0.99; number-needed-to-treat 111, 95% confidence interval 61-666), as well manual removal of the placenta (relative risk 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.58-0.84) and duration of the third stage of labor (mean difference -3.20, 95% confidence interval -3.21 to -3.19). Controlled cord traction appears to reduce the risk of any postpartum hemorrhage in a general sense, as well as manual removal of the placenta and the duration of the third stage of labor. However, the reduction in the occurrence of severe postpartum hemorrhage, need for additional uterotonics and blood transfusion is not statistically significant. © 2014 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Loss of DPC4/SMAD4 expression in primary gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors is associated with cancer-related death after resection.

PubMed

Roland, Christina L; Starker, Lee F; Kang, Y; Chatterjee, Deyali; Estrella, Jeannelyn; Rashid, Asif; Katz, Matthew H; Aloia, Thomas A; Lee, Jeffrey E; Dasari, Arvind; Yao, James C; Fleming, Jason B

2017-03-01

Gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors have frequent loss of DPC4/SMAD4 expression, a known tumor suppressor. The impact of SMAD4 loss on gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors aggressiveness or cancer-related patient outcomes is not defined. We examined the expression of SMAD4 in resected gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors and its impact on oncologic outcomes. Patients who underwent complete curative operative resection of gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors were identified retrospectively (n = 38). Immunohistochemical staining for SMAD4 expression was scored by a blinded pathologist and correlated with clinicopathologic features and oncologic outcomes. Twenty-nine percent of the gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors were SMAD4-negative and 71% SMAD4-positive. Median overall survival was 155 months (95% confidence interval, 102-208 months). Loss of SMAD4 was associated with both decreased median disease-free survival (28 months; 95% confidence interval, 16-40) months compared with 223 months (95% confidence interval, 3-443 months) for SMAD4-positive patients (P = .03) and decreased median disease-specific survival (SMAD4: 137 [95% confidence interval, 81-194] months versus SMAD4-positive: 204 [95% confidence interval, 143-264] months; P = .04). This translated into a decrease in median overall survival (SMAD4-negative: 125 (95% confidence interval, 51-214) months versus SMAD4-positive: 185 (95% confidence interval, 138-232) months; P = .02). Consistent with the known biology of the DPC4/SMAD4 gene, an absence of its protein expression in primary gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors was negatively associated with outcomes after curative operative resection. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Calculation of the confidence intervals for transformation parameters in the registration of medical images

PubMed Central

Bansal, Ravi; Staib, Lawrence H.; Laine, Andrew F.; Xu, Dongrong; Liu, Jun; Posecion, Lainie F.; Peterson, Bradley S.

2010-01-01

Images from different individuals typically cannot be registered precisely because anatomical features within the images differ across the people imaged and because the current methods for image registration have inherent technological limitations that interfere with perfect registration. Quantifying the inevitable error in image registration is therefore of crucial importance in assessing the effects that image misregistration may have on subsequent analyses in an imaging study. We have developed a mathematical framework for quantifying errors in registration by computing the confidence intervals of the estimated parameters (3 translations, 3 rotations, and 1 global scale) for the similarity transformation. The presence of noise in images and the variability in anatomy across individuals ensures that estimated registration parameters are always random variables. We assume a functional relation among intensities across voxels in the images, and we use the theory of nonlinear, least-squares estimation to show that the parameters are multivariate Gaussian distributed. We then use the covariance matrix of this distribution to compute the confidence intervals of the transformation parameters. These confidence intervals provide a quantitative assessment of the registration error across the images. Because transformation parameters are nonlinearly related to the coordinates of landmark points in the brain, we subsequently show that the coordinates of those landmark points are also multivariate Gaussian distributed. Using these distributions, we then compute the confidence intervals of the coordinates for landmark points in the image. Each of these confidence intervals in turn provides a quantitative assessment of the registration error at a particular landmark point. Because our method is computationally intensive, however, its current implementation is limited to assessing the error of the parameters in the similarity transformation across images. We assessed the performance of our method in computing the error in estimated similarity parameters by applying that method to real world dataset. Our results showed that the size of the confidence intervals computed using our method decreased – i.e. our confidence in the registration of images from different individuals increased – for increasing amounts of blur in the images. Moreover, the size of the confidence intervals increased for increasing amounts of noise, misregistration, and differing anatomy. Thus, our method precisely quantified confidence in the registration of images that contain varying amounts of misregistration and varying anatomy across individuals. PMID:19138877

Reliability of the identification of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill infants and children.

PubMed

Juskewitch, Justin E; Prasad, Swati; Salas, Carlos F Santillan; Huskins, W Charles

2012-01-01

To assess interobserver reliability of the identification of episodes of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill hospitalized infants and children. Retrospective, cross-sectional study of the application of the 2005 consensus definition of systemic inflammatory response syndrome in infants and children by two independent, trained reviewers using information in the electronic medical record. Eighteen-bed pediatric multidisciplinary medical/surgical pediatric intensive care unit. A randomly selected sample of children admitted consecutively to the pediatric intensive care unit between May 1 and September 30, 2009. None. Sixty infants and children were selected from a total of 343 admitted patients. Their median age was 3.9 yrs (interquartile range, 1.5-12.7), 57% were female, and 68% were Caucasian. Nineteen (32%) children were identified by both reviewers as having an episode of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (88% agreement, 95% confidence interval 78-94; κ = 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.59-0.92). Among these 19 children, agreement between the reviewers for individual systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria was: temperature (84%, 95% confidence interval 60-97); white blood cell count (89%, 95% confidence interval 67-99); respiratory rate (84%, 95% confidence interval 60-97); and heart rate (68%, 95% confidence interval 33-87). Episodes of systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill infants and children can be identified reproducibly using the consensus definition.

What was different about exposures reported by male Australian Gulf War veterans for the 1991 Persian Gulf War, compared with exposures reported for other deployments?

PubMed

Glass, Deborah C; Sim, Malcolm R; Kelsall, Helen L; Ikin, Jill F; McKenzie, Dean; Forbes, Andrew; Ittak, Peter

2006-07-01

This study identified chemical and environmental exposures specifically associated with the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Exposures were self-reported in a postal questionnaire, in the period of 2000-2002, by 1,424 Australian male Persian Gulf War veterans in relation to their 1991 Persian Gulf War deployment and by 625 Persian Gulf War veterans and 514 members of a military comparison group in relation to other active deployments. Six of 28 investigated exposures were experienced more frequently during the Persian Gulf War than during other deployments; these were exposure to smoke (odds ratio [OR], 4.4; 95% confidence interval, 3.0-6.6), exposure to dust (OR, 3.7; 95% confidence interval, 2.6-5.3), exposure to chemical warfare agents (OR, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-7.9), use of respiratory protective equipment (OR, 13.6; 95% confidence interval, 7.6-26.8), use of nuclear, chemical, and biological protective suits (OR, 8.9; 95% confidence interval, 5.4-15.4), and entering/inspecting enemy equipment (OR, 3.1; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-4.8). Other chemical and environmental exposures were not specific to the Persian Gulf War deployment but were also reported in relation to other deployments. The number of exposures reported was related to service type and number of deployments but not to age or rank.

Statin therapy in lower limb peripheral arterial disease: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Antoniou, George A; Fisher, Robert K; Georgiadis, George S; Antoniou, Stavros A; Torella, Francesco

2014-11-01

To investigate and analyse the existing evidence supporting statin therapy in patients with lower limb atherosclerotic arterial disease. A systematic search of electronic information sources was undertaken to identify studies comparing cardiovascular outcomes in patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease treated with a statin and those not receiving a statin. Estimates were combined applying fixed- or random-effects models. Twelve observational cohort studies and two randomised trials reporting 19,368 patients were selected. Statin therapy was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (odds ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.78) and incidence of stroke (odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.67-0.89). A trend towards improved cardiovascular mortality (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.35-1.11), myocardial infarction (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.38-1.01), and the composite of death/myocardial infarction/stroke (odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.81-1.03), was identified. Meta-analyses of studies performing adjustments showed decreased all-cause mortality in statin users (hazard ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.68-0.86). Evidence supporting statins' protective role in patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease is insufficient. Statin therapy seems to be effective in reducing all-cause mortality and the incidence cerebrovascular events in patients diagnosed with peripheral arterial disease. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the appropriateness of applying chi-square distribution based confidence intervals to spectral estimates of helicopter flyover data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rutledge, Charles K.

1988-01-01

The validity of applying chi-square based confidence intervals to far-field acoustic flyover spectral estimates was investigated. Simulated data, using a Kendall series and experimental acoustic data from the NASA/McDonnell Douglas 500E acoustics test, were analyzed. Statistical significance tests to determine the equality of distributions of the simulated and experimental data relative to theoretical chi-square distributions were performed. Bias and uncertainty errors associated with the spectral estimates were easily identified from the data sets. A model relating the uncertainty and bias errors to the estimates resulted, which aided in determining the appropriateness of the chi-square distribution based confidence intervals. Such confidence intervals were appropriate for nontonally associated frequencies of the experimental data but were inappropriate for tonally associated estimate distributions. The appropriateness at the tonally associated frequencies was indicated by the presence of bias error and noncomformity of the distributions to the theoretical chi-square distribution. A technique for determining appropriate confidence intervals at the tonally associated frequencies was suggested.

A comparison of statistical methods for evaluating matching performance of a biometric identification device: a preliminary report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuckers, Michael E.; Hawley, Anne; Livingstone, Katie; Mramba, Nona

2004-08-01

Confidence intervals are an important way to assess and estimate a parameter. In the case of biometric identification devices, several approaches to confidence intervals for an error rate have been proposed. Here we evaluate six of these methods. To complete this evaluation, we simulate data from a wide variety of parameter values. This data are simulated via a correlated binary distribution. We then determine how well these methods do at what they say they do: capturing the parameter inside the confidence interval. In addition, the average widths of the various confidence intervals are recorded for each set of parameters. The complete results of this simulation are presented graphically for easy comparison. We conclude by making a recommendation regarding which method performs best.

Expression of Proteins Involved in Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition as Predictors of Metastasis and Survival in Breast Cancer Patients

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-01

Ptrend 0.78 0.62 0.75 Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for risk of node...Ptrend 0.71 0.67 Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for risk of high-grade tumors... logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between each of the seven SNPs and

Closed-form confidence intervals for functions of the normal mean and standard deviation.

PubMed

Donner, Allan; Zou, G Y

2012-08-01

Confidence interval methods for a normal mean and standard deviation are well known and simple to apply. However, the same cannot be said for important functions of these parameters. These functions include the normal distribution percentiles, the Bland-Altman limits of agreement, the coefficient of variation and Cohen's effect size. We present a simple approach to this problem by using variance estimates recovered from confidence limits computed for the mean and standard deviation separately. All resulting confidence intervals have closed forms. Simulation results demonstrate that this approach performs very well for limits of agreement, coefficients of variation and their differences.

Assessing equity of healthcare utilization in rural China: results from nationally representative surveys from 1993 to 2008

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The phenomenon of inequitable healthcare utilization in rural China interests policymakers and researchers; however, the inequity has not been actually measured to present the magnitude and trend using nationally representative data. Methods Based on the National Health Service Survey (NHSS) in 1993, 1998, 2003, and 2008, the Probit model with the probability of outpatient visit and the probability of inpatient visit as the dependent variables is applied to estimate need-predicted healthcare utilization. Furthermore, need-standardized healthcare utilization is assessed through indirect standardization method. Concentration index is measured to reflect income-related inequity of healthcare utilization. Results The concentration index of need-standardized outpatient utilization is 0.0486[95% confidence interval (0.0399, 0.0574)], 0.0310[95% confidence interval (0.0229, 0.0390)], 0.0167[95% confidence interval (0.0069, 0.0264)] and −0.0108[95% confidence interval (−0.0213, -0.0004)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. For inpatient service, the concentration index is 0.0529[95% confidence interval (0.0349, 0.0709)], 0.1543[95% confidence interval (0.1356, 0.1730)], 0.2325[95% confidence interval (0.2132, 0.2518)] and 0.1313[95% confidence interval (0.1174, 0.1451)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. Conclusions Utilization of both outpatient and inpatient services was pro-rich in rural China with the exception of outpatient service in 2008. With the same needs for healthcare, rich rural residents utilized more healthcare service than poor rural residents. Compared to utilization of outpatient service, utilization of inpatient service was more inequitable. Inequity of utilization of outpatient service reduced gradually from 1993 to 2008; meanwhile, inequity of inpatient service utilization increased dramatically from 1993 to 2003 and decreased significantly from 2003 to 2008. Recent attempts in China to increase coverage of insurance and primary healthcare could be a contributing factor to counteract the inequity of outpatient utilization, but better benefit packages and delivery strategies still need to be tested and scaled up to reduce future inequity in inpatient utilization in rural China. PMID:23688260

Exposure to power frequency electric fields and the risk of childhood cancer in the UK

PubMed Central

Skinner, J; Mee, T J; Blackwell, R P; Maslanyj, M P; Simpson, J; Allen, S G; Day, N E

2002-01-01

The United Kingdom Childhood Cancer Study, a population-based case–control study covering the whole of Great Britain, incorporated a pilot study measuring electric fields. Measurements were made in the homes of 473 children who were diagnosed with a malignant neoplasm between 1992 and 1996 and who were aged 0–14 at diagnosis, together with 453 controls matched on age, sex and geographical location. Exposure assessments comprised resultant spot measurements in the child's bedroom and the family living-room. Temporal stability of bedroom fields was investigated through continuous logging of the 48-h vertical component at the child's bedside supported by repeat spot measurements. The principal exposure metric used was the mean of the pillow and bed centre measurements. For the 273 cases and 276 controls with fully validated measures, comparing those with a measured electric field exposure ⩾20 V m−1 to those in a reference category of exposure <10 V m−1, odds ratios of 1.31 (95% confidence interval 0.68–2.54) for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, 1.32 (95% confidence interval 0.73–2.39) for total leukaemia, 2.12 (95% confidence interval 0.78–5.78) for central nervous system cancers and 1.26 (95% confidence interval 0.77–2.07) for all malignancies were obtained. When considering the 426 cases and 419 controls with no invalid measures, the corresponding odds ratios were 0.86 (95% confidence interval 0.49–1.51) for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.56–1.54) for total leukaemia, 1.43 (95% confidence interval 0.68–3.02) for central nervous system cancers and 0.90 (95% confidence interval 0.59–1.35) for all malignancies. With exposure modelled as a continuous variable, odds ratios for an increase in the principal metric of 10 V m−1 were close to unity for all disease categories, never differing significantly from one. British Journal of Cancer (2002) 87, 1257–1266. doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6600602 www.bjcancer.com © 2002 Cancer Research UK PMID:12439715

A risk score for predicting coronary artery disease in women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test finding.

PubMed

Lo, Monica Y; Bonthala, Nirupama; Holper, Elizabeth M; Banks, Kamakki; Murphy, Sabina A; McGuire, Darren K; de Lemos, James A; Khera, Amit

2013-03-15

Women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings commonly have no epicardial coronary artery disease (CAD) at catheterization. The aim of the present study was to develop a risk score to predict obstructive CAD in such patients. Data were analyzed from 337 consecutive women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings who underwent cardiac catheterization at our center from 2003 to 2007. Forward selection multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent predictors of CAD, defined by ≥50% diameter stenosis in ≥1 epicardial coronary artery. The independent predictors included age ≥55 years (odds ratio 2.3, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 4.0), body mass index <30 kg/m(2) (odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 3.1), smoking (odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.8), low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (odds ratio 2.9, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), family history of premature CAD (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.0 to 5.7), lateral abnormality on stress imaging (odds ratio 2.8, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), and exercise capacity <5 metabolic equivalents (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 5.6). Assigning each variable 1 point summed to constitute a risk score, a graded association between the score and prevalent CAD (ptrend <0.001). The risk score demonstrated good discrimination with a cross-validated c-statistic of 0.745 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.79), and an optimized cutpoint of a score of ≤2 included 62% of the subjects and had a negative predictive value of 80%. In conclusion, a simple clinical risk score of 7 characteristics can help differentiate those more or less likely to have CAD among women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings. This tool, if validated, could help to guide testing strategies in women with angina pectoris. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Confidence Intervals for True Scores Using the Skew-Normal Distribution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garcia-Perez, Miguel A.

2010-01-01

A recent comparative analysis of alternative interval estimation approaches and procedures has shown that confidence intervals (CIs) for true raw scores determined with the Score method--which uses the normal approximation to the binomial distribution--have actual coverage probabilities that are closest to their nominal level. It has also recently…

The Role of Short-Term Memory Capacity and Task Experience for Overconfidence in Judgment under Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hansson, Patrik; Juslin, Peter; Winman, Anders

2008-01-01

Research with general knowledge items demonstrates extreme overconfidence when people estimate confidence intervals for unknown quantities, but close to zero overconfidence when the same intervals are assessed by probability judgment. In 3 experiments, the authors investigated if the overconfidence specific to confidence intervals derives from…

Confidence Intervals for Weighted Composite Scores under the Compound Binomial Error Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

2018-01-01

Reporting confidence intervals with test scores helps test users make important decisions about examinees by providing information about the precision of test scores. Although a variety of estimation procedures based on the binomial error model are available for computing intervals for test scores, these procedures assume that items are randomly…

Towards the estimation of effect measures in studies using respondent-driven sampling.

PubMed

Rotondi, Michael A

2014-06-01

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is an increasingly common sampling technique to recruit hidden populations. Statistical methods for RDS are not straightforward due to the correlation between individual outcomes and subject weighting; thus, analyses are typically limited to estimation of population proportions. This manuscript applies the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER) to construct confidence intervals for effect measures such as risk difference (difference of proportions) or relative risk in studies using RDS. To illustrate the approach, MOVER is used to construct confidence intervals for differences in the prevalence of demographic characteristics between an RDS study and convenience study of injection drug users. MOVER is then applied to obtain a confidence interval for the relative risk between education levels and HIV seropositivity and current infection with syphilis, respectively. This approach provides a simple method to construct confidence intervals for effect measures in RDS studies. Since it only relies on a proportion and appropriate confidence limits, it can also be applied to previously published manuscripts.

Autonomous motivation mediates the relation between goals for physical activity and physical activity behavior in adolescents.

PubMed

Duncan, Michael J; Eyre, Emma Lj; Bryant, Elizabeth; Seghers, Jan; Galbraith, Niall; Nevill, Alan M

2017-04-01

Overall, 544 children (mean age ± standard deviation = 14.2 ± .94 years) completed self-report measures of physical activity goal content, behavioral regulations, and physical activity behavior. Body mass index was determined from height and mass. The indirect effect of intrinsic goal content on physical activity was statistically significant via autonomous ( b = 162.27; 95% confidence interval [89.73, 244.70]), but not controlled motivation ( b = 5.30; 95% confidence interval [-39.05, 45.16]). The indirect effect of extrinsic goal content on physical activity was statistically significant via autonomous ( b = 106.25; 95% confidence interval [63.74, 159.13]) but not controlled motivation ( b = 17.28; 95% confidence interval [-31.76, 70.21]). Weight status did not alter these findings.

Value of lymph node biopsy in the diagnosis of acquired toxoplasmosis.

PubMed

Tuzuner, N; Doğusoy, G; Demirkesen, C; Ozkan, F; Altas, K

1996-04-01

Toxoplasmic lymphadenitis generally involves a solitary lymph node in the head and neck regions, without systemic symptoms. In order to determine the frequency of toxoplasmic lymphadenitis, we reviewed the histological sections of 731 consecutive patients with reactive lymph node hyperplasia. Amongst 731 patients, 112 had histological features supporting a diagnosis of toxoplasmic lymphadenitis (15.3 per cent). In 80 of these patients (71 per cent), either Indirect Haemaglutination test (IHA), in 37 cases, or the Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) for detecting toxoplasmic IgG or IgM antibodies, in 43 cases, were performed. In 76 out of 80 patients (95 per cent), histological features correlated well with serological studies. The IHA test was positive in 30 patients with a titre of 1/64 or higher. The IgG-ELISA test was positive in 11 whereas the IgM-ELISA test was positive in 28 patients. These results provide further evidence of the distinctive nature of the histological changes in toxoplasmic lymphadenitis, which should enable the clinician to make a confident diagnosis of acute acquired toxoplasmosis.

Confidence intervals for a difference between lognormal means in cluster randomization trials.

PubMed

Poirier, Julia; Zou, G Y; Koval, John

2017-04-01

Cluster randomization trials, in which intact social units are randomized to different interventions, have become popular in the last 25 years. Outcomes from these trials in many cases are positively skewed, following approximately lognormal distributions. When inference is focused on the difference between treatment arm arithmetic means, existent confidence interval procedures either make restricting assumptions or are complex to implement. We approach this problem by assuming log-transformed outcomes from each treatment arm follow a one-way random effects model. The treatment arm means are functions of multiple parameters for which separate confidence intervals are readily available, suggesting that the method of variance estimates recovery may be applied to obtain closed-form confidence intervals. A simulation study showed that this simple approach performs well in small sample sizes in terms of empirical coverage, relatively balanced tail errors, and interval widths as compared to existing methods. The methods are illustrated using data arising from a cluster randomization trial investigating a critical pathway for the treatment of community acquired pneumonia.

The Distribution of the Product Explains Normal Theory Mediation Confidence Interval Estimation.

PubMed

Kisbu-Sakarya, Yasemin; MacKinnon, David P; Miočević, Milica

2014-05-01

The distribution of the product has several useful applications. One of these applications is its use to form confidence intervals for the indirect effect as the product of 2 regression coefficients. The purpose of this article is to investigate how the moments of the distribution of the product explain normal theory mediation confidence interval coverage and imbalance. Values of the critical ratio for each random variable are used to demonstrate how the moments of the distribution of the product change across values of the critical ratio observed in research studies. Results of the simulation study showed that as skewness in absolute value increases, coverage decreases. And as skewness in absolute value and kurtosis increases, imbalance increases. The difference between testing the significance of the indirect effect using the normal theory versus the asymmetric distribution of the product is further illustrated with a real data example. This article is the first study to show the direct link between the distribution of the product and indirect effect confidence intervals and clarifies the results of previous simulation studies by showing why normal theory confidence intervals for indirect effects are often less accurate than those obtained from the asymmetric distribution of the product or from resampling methods.

Statistical inference for the within-device precision of quantitative measurements in assay validation.

PubMed

Liu, Jen-Pei; Lu, Li-Tien; Liao, C T

2009-09-01

Intermediate precision is one of the most important characteristics for evaluation of precision in assay validation. The current methods for evaluation of within-device precision recommended by the Clinical Laboratory Standard Institute (CLSI) guideline EP5-A2 are based on the point estimator. On the other hand, in addition to point estimators, confidence intervals can provide a range for the within-device precision with a probability statement. Therefore, we suggest a confidence interval approach for assessment of the within-device precision. Furthermore, under the two-stage nested random-effects model recommended by the approved CLSI guideline EP5-A2, in addition to the current Satterthwaite's approximation and the modified large sample (MLS) methods, we apply the technique of generalized pivotal quantities (GPQ) to derive the confidence interval for the within-device precision. The data from the approved CLSI guideline EP5-A2 illustrate the applications of the confidence interval approach and comparison of results between the three methods. Results of a simulation study on the coverage probability and expected length of the three methods are reported. The proposed method of the GPQ-based confidence intervals is also extended to consider the between-laboratories variation for precision assessment.

Prolonged corrected QT interval is predictive of future stroke events even in subjects without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Joji; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Kario, Kazuomi

2015-03-01

We attempted to evaluate whether subjects who exhibit prolonged corrected QT (QTc) interval (≥440 ms in men and ≥460 ms in women) on ECG, with and without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy (ECG-LVH; Cornell product, ≥244 mV×ms), are at increased risk of stroke. Among the 10 643 subjects, there were a total of 375 stroke events during the follow-up period (128.7±28.1 months; 114 142 person-years). The subjects with prolonged QTc interval (hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.73) had an increased risk of stroke even after adjustment for ECG-LVH (hazard ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.40). When we stratified the subjects into those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH, those with a prolonged QTc interval but without ECG-LVH, and those with ECG-LVH, multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis demonstrated that the subjects with prolonged QTc intervals but not ECG-LVH (1.2% of all subjects; incidence, 10.7%; hazard ratio, 2.70, 95% confidence interval, 1.48-4.94) and those with ECG-LVH (incidence, 7.9%; hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-2.57) had an increased risk of stroke events, compared with those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH. In conclusion, prolonged QTc interval was associated with stroke risk even among patients without ECG-LVH in the general population. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Calculating Confidence Intervals for Regional Economic Impacts of Recreastion by Bootstrapping Visitor Expenditures

Treesearch

Donald B.K. English

2000-01-01

In this paper I use bootstrap procedures to develop confidence intervals for estimates of total industrial output generated per thousand tourist visits. Mean expenditures from replicated visitor expenditure data included weights to correct for response bias. Impacts were estimated with IMPLAN. Ninety percent interval endpoints were 6 to 16 percent above or below the...

Initial hydrologic and geomorphic response following a wildfire in the Colorado front range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, J.A.; Martin, D.A.

2001-01-01

A wildfire in May 1996 burned 4690 hectares in two watersheds forested by ponderosa pine and Douglas fir in a steep, mountainous landscape with a summer, convective thunderstorm precipitation regime. The wildfire lowered the erosion threshold in the watersheds, and consequently amplified the subsequent erosional response to shorter time interval episodic rainfall and created both erosional and depositional features in a complex pattern throughout the watersheds. The initial response during the first four years was an increase in runoff and erosion rates followed by decreases toward pre-fire rates. The maximum unit-area peak discharge was 24 m3 s-1 km-2 for a rainstorm in 1996 with a rain intensity of 90 mm h-1. Recovery to pre-fire conditions seems to have occured by 2000 because for a maximum 30-min rainfall intensity of 50 mm h-1, the unit-area peak discharge in 1997 was 6.6 m3 s-1 km-2, while in 2000 a similar intensity produced only 0.11 m3 s-1 km-2. Rill erosion accounted for 6 per cent, interrill erosion for 14 per cent, and drainage erosion for 80 per cent of the initial erosion in 1996. This represents about a 200-fold increase in erosion rates on hillslopes which had a recovery or relaxation time of about three years. About 67 per cent of the initially eroded sediment is still stored in the watersheds after four years with an estimated residence time greater than 300 years. This residence time is much greater than the fire recurrence interval so erosional and depositional features may become legacies from the wildfire and may affect landscape evolution by acting as a new set of initial conditions for subsequent wildfire and flood sequences. Published in 2001 by John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

Does blood transfusion affect intermediate survival after coronary artery bypass surgery?

PubMed

Mikkola, R; Heikkinen, J; Lahtinen, J; Paone, R; Juvonen, T; Biancari, F

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of transfusion of blood products on intermediate outcome after coronary artery bypass surgery. Complete data on perioperative blood transfusion in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery were available from 2001 patients who were operated at our institution. Transfusion of any blood product (relative risk = 1.678, 95% confidence interval = 1.087-2.590) was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality. The additive effect of each blood product on all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.401, 95% confidence interval = 1.203-1.630) and cardiac mortality (relative risk = 1.553, 95% confidence interval = 1.273-1.895) was evident when the sum of each blood product was included in the regression models. However, when single blood products were included in the regression model, transfusion of fresh frozen plasma/Octaplas® was the only blood product associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.692, 95% confidence interval = 1.222-2.344) and cardiac mortality (relative risk = 2.125, 95% confidence interval = 1.414-3.194). The effect of blood product transfusion was particularly evident during the first three postoperative months. Since follow-up was truncated at 3 months, transfusion of any blood product was a significant predictor of all-cause mortality (relative risk = 2.998, 95% confidence interval = 1.053-0.537). Analysis of patients who survived or had at least 3 months of potential follow-up showed that transfusion of any blood product was not associated with a significantly increased risk of intermediate all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.430, 95% confidence interval = 0.880-2.323). Transfusion of any blood product is associated with a significant risk of all-cause and cardiac mortality after coronary artery bypass surgery. Such a risk seems to be limited to the early postoperative period and diminishes later on. Among blood products, perioperative use of fresh frozen plasma or Octaplas seems to be the main determinant of mortality.

Rapid Contour-based Segmentation for 18F-FDG PET Imaging of Lung Tumors by Using ITK-SNAP: Comparison to Expert-based Segmentation.

PubMed

Besson, Florent L; Henry, Théophraste; Meyer, Céline; Chevance, Virgile; Roblot, Victoire; Blanchet, Elise; Arnould, Victor; Grimon, Gilles; Chekroun, Malika; Mabille, Laurence; Parent, Florence; Seferian, Andrei; Bulifon, Sophie; Montani, David; Humbert, Marc; Chaumet-Riffaud, Philippe; Lebon, Vincent; Durand, Emmanuel

2018-04-03

Purpose To assess the performance of the ITK-SNAP software for fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) segmentation of complex-shaped lung tumors compared with an optimized, expert-based manual reference standard. Materials and Methods Seventy-six FDG PET images of thoracic lesions were retrospectively segmented by using ITK-SNAP software. Each tumor was manually segmented by six raters to generate an optimized reference standard by using the simultaneous truth and performance level estimate algorithm. Four raters segmented 76 FDG PET images of lung tumors twice by using ITK-SNAP active contour algorithm. Accuracy of ITK-SNAP procedure was assessed by using Dice coefficient and Hausdorff metric. Interrater and intrarater reliability were estimated by using intraclass correlation coefficients of output volumes. Finally, the ITK-SNAP procedure was compared with currently recommended PET tumor delineation methods on the basis of thresholding at 41% volume of interest (VOI; VOI 41 ) and 50% VOI (VOI 50 ) of the tumor's maximal metabolism intensity. Results Accuracy estimates for the ITK-SNAP procedure indicated a Dice coefficient of 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.77, 0.89) and a Hausdorff distance of 12.6 mm (95% confidence interval: 9.82, 15.32). Interrater reliability was an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.94 (95% confidence interval: 0.91, 0.96). The intrarater reliabilities were intraclass correlation coefficients above 0.97. Finally, VOI 41 and VOI 50 accuracy metrics were as follows: Dice coefficient, 0.48 (95% confidence interval: 0.44, 0.51) and 0.34 (95% confidence interval: 0.30, 0.38), respectively, and Hausdorff distance, 25.6 mm (95% confidence interval: 21.7, 31.4) and 31.3 mm (95% confidence interval: 26.8, 38.4), respectively. Conclusion ITK-SNAP is accurate and reliable for active-contour-based segmentation of heterogeneous thoracic PET tumors. ITK-SNAP surpassed the recommended PET methods compared with ground truth manual segmentation. © RSNA, 2018.

Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2000-01-01

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Ten studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.47, 95% confidence interval 0.24 to 0. 90); and a trend to reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.00). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0. 12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2002-01-01

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However, it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register (October 2001) and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (Issue 3, 2001) were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Twelve studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.88); and reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.97). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0.12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Quantitative imaging biomarkers: Effect of sample size and bias on confidence interval coverage.

PubMed

Obuchowski, Nancy A; Bullen, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Introduction Quantitative imaging biomarkers (QIBs) are being increasingly used in medical practice and clinical trials. An essential first step in the adoption of a quantitative imaging biomarker is the characterization of its technical performance, i.e. precision and bias, through one or more performance studies. Then, given the technical performance, a confidence interval for a new patient's true biomarker value can be constructed. Estimating bias and precision can be problematic because rarely are both estimated in the same study, precision studies are usually quite small, and bias cannot be measured when there is no reference standard. Methods A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to assess factors affecting nominal coverage of confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement and for change in the quantitative imaging biomarker over time. Factors considered include sample size for estimating bias and precision, effect of fixed and non-proportional bias, clustered data, and absence of a reference standard. Results Technical performance studies of a quantitative imaging biomarker should include at least 35 test-retest subjects to estimate precision and 65 cases to estimate bias. Confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement constructed under the no-bias assumption provide nominal coverage as long as the fixed bias is <12%. For confidence intervals of the true change over time, linearity must hold and the slope of the regression of the measurements vs. true values should be between 0.95 and 1.05. The regression slope can be assessed adequately as long as fixed multiples of the measurand can be generated. Even small non-proportional bias greatly reduces confidence interval coverage. Multiple lesions in the same subject can be treated as independent when estimating precision. Conclusion Technical performance studies of quantitative imaging biomarkers require moderate sample sizes in order to provide robust estimates of bias and precision for constructing confidence intervals for new patients. Assumptions of linearity and non-proportional bias should be assessed thoroughly.

Association between GFR Estimated by Multiple Methods at Dialysis Commencement and Patient Survival

PubMed Central

Wong, Muh Geot; Pollock, Carol A.; Cooper, Bruce A.; Branley, Pauline; Collins, John F.; Craig, Jonathan C.; Kesselhut, Joan; Luxton, Grant; Pilmore, Andrew; Harris, David C.

2014-01-01

Summary Background and objectives The Initiating Dialysis Early and Late study showed that planned early or late initiation of dialysis, based on the Cockcroft and Gault estimation of GFR, was associated with identical clinical outcomes. This study examined the association of all-cause mortality with estimated GFR at dialysis commencement, which was determined using multiple formulas. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants were stratified into tertiles according to the estimated GFR measured by Cockcroft and Gault, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease, or Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration formula at dialysis commencement. Patient survival was determined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards model regression. Results Only Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants who commenced on dialysis were included in this study (n=768). A total of 275 patients died during the study. After adjustment for age, sex, racial origin, body mass index, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, no significant differences in survival were observed between estimated GFR tertiles determined by Cockcroft and Gault (lowest tertile adjusted hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.49; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.96 to 1.74; highest tertile reference), Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.63 to 1.24; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.90 to 1.61; highest tertile reference), and Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration equations (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 1.27; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 1.54; highest tertile reference). Conclusion Estimated GFR at dialysis commencement was not significantly associated with patient survival, regardless of the formula used. However, a clinically important association cannot be excluded, because observed confidence intervals were wide. PMID:24178976

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Fermi/GBM GRB time-resolved spectral catalog (Yu+, 2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, H.-F.; Preece, R. D.; Greiner, J.; Bhat, P. N.; Bissaldi, E.; Briggs, M. S.; Cleveland, W. H.; Connaughton, V.; Goldstein, A.; von Kienlin; A.; Kouveliotou, C.; Mailyan, B.; Meegan, C. A.; Paciesas, W. S.; Rau, A.; Roberts, O. J.; Veres, P.; Wilson-Hodge, C.; Zhang, B.-B.; van Eerten, H. J.

2016-01-01

Time-resolved spectral analysis results of BEST models: for each spectrum GRB name using the Fermi GBM trigger designation, spectrum number within individual burst, start time Tstart and end time Tstop for the time bin, BEST model, best-fit parameters of the BEST model, value of CSTAT per degrees of freedom, 10keV-1MeV photon and energy flux are given. Ep evolutionary trends: for each burst GRB name, number of spectra with Ep, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficients between Ep_ and photon flux and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficients between Ep and energy flux and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient between Ep and time and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, trends as determined by computer for 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, trends as determined by human eyes are given. (2 data files).

Intervals for posttest probabilities: a comparison of 5 methods.

PubMed

Mossman, D; Berger, J O

2001-01-01

Several medical articles discuss methods of constructing confidence intervals for single proportions and the likelihood ratio, but scant attention has been given to the systematic study of intervals for the posterior odds, or the positive predictive value, of a test. The authors describe 5 methods of constructing confidence intervals for posttest probabilities when estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and the pretest probability of a disorder are derived from empirical data. They then evaluate each method to determine how well the intervals' coverage properties correspond to their nominal value. When the estimates of pretest probabilities, sensitivity, and specificity are derived from more than 80 subjects and are not close to 0 or 1, all methods generate intervals with appropriate coverage properties. When these conditions are not met, however, the best-performing method is an objective Bayesian approach implemented by a simple simulation using a spreadsheet. Physicians and investigators can generate accurate confidence intervals for posttest probabilities in small-sample situations using the objective Bayesian approach.

HIV/AIDS in Bangladesh: a national surveillance

PubMed Central

Islam, Manirul; Mitra, Amal K; Mian, Anwarul Huq; Vermund, Sten H

2009-01-01

Summary Nationwide surveillance of HIV/AIDS from 1989 through 1996 in Bangladesh included several risk groups such as professional blood donors, patients with sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), pregnant women at antenatal clinics, commercial sex workers (CSWs), patients with tuberculosis, long-distance truck drivers, sailors, and non-residents. The population was enrolled by convenience sampling after taking informed consent. Among 70,676 persons tested, 80 (1.13 per 1000) were HIV positive. The prevalence rate was steady until 1994, and then increased rapidly. The rate among male heterosexuals was significantly higher than that in females (3.40 per 1000 versus 0.29 per 1000; odds ratio (OR) 11.60; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 6.45 to 21.16; P<0.0001). Twelve per cent of patients with STDs had HIV. The HIV cases concentrated in 2 districts, Sylhet (25/72) and Chittagong (20/72), that border India and Myanmar (formerly Burma), respectively. Frequent movement of people of Bangladesh to India, Pakistan, Myanmar and Thailand, where HIV rates are higher, is one of the possible sources of spread of the cases. Bangladesh has the potential to avert epidemic spread of HIV at its early stage. PMID:10454184

Factors related to participation in a cervical cancer screening programme in urban Sweden.

PubMed

Rodvall, Y; Kemetli, L; Tishelman, C; Törnberg, S

2005-10-01

Fifty-six per cent of invited women aged 25-60 attended the Population-based Cervical Cancer Screening Programme (PCCSP) in Stockholm, Sweden in 1994-1996. The objective of this study was to explore factors related to participation in this PCCSP. Registry data on all women aged 25-60 invited to the PCCSP from 1994 to 1996 (n=307,552) was matched with a national longitudinal population database. Women in the youngest age group (25-29 years old) were found to be less likely to participate in the PCCSP than women in older age groups. Married women or widows attended the programme more often (OR 1.32, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.29-1.34 and OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.27-1.45, respectively) than did single women. Women in the labour force were more likely to participate than those who were not in the labour force (OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.78-1.87). The participation rate was not lower for immigrant women from developing countries than for those born in Sweden. We found that age, marital status and being in the labour force or not are factors associated with participation in the cervical cancer screening programme.

Hyaluronic acid for post sinus surgery care: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Fong, E; Garcia, M; Woods, C M; Ooi, E

2017-01-01

Wound healing after endoscopic sinus surgery may result in adhesion formation. Hyaluronic acid may prevent synechiae development. A systematic review was performed to evaluate the current evidence on the clinical efficacy of hyaluronic acid applied to the nasal cavity after sinus surgery. Studies using hyaluronic acid as an adjunct treatment following endoscopic sinus surgery for chronic rhinosinusitis were identified. The primary outcome was adhesion formation rates. A meta-analysis was performed on adhesion event frequency. Secondary outcome measures included other endoscopic findings and patient-reported outcomes. Thirteen studies (501 patients) met the selection criteria. A meta-analysis of adhesion formation frequency on endoscopy demonstrated a lower risk ratio in the hyaluronic acid intervention group (42 out of 283 cases) compared to the control group (81 out of 282) of 0.52 (95 per cent confidence interval = 0.37-0.72). Hyaluronic acid use was not associated with any significant adverse events. Hyaluronic acid appears to be clinically safe and well tolerated, and may be useful in the early stages after sinus surgery to limit adhesion rate. Further research, including larger randomised controlled trials, is required to evaluate patient- and clinician-reported outcomes of hyaluronic acid post sinus surgery.

Pregnancy and birth outcomes in couples with infertility with and without assisted reproductive technology: with an emphasis on US population-based studies.

PubMed

Luke, Barbara

2017-09-01

Infertility, defined as the inability to conceive within 1 year of unprotected intercourse, affects an estimated 80 million individuals worldwide, or 10-15% of couples of reproductive age. Assisted reproductive technology includes all infertility treatments to achieve conception; in vitro fertilization is the process by which an oocyte is fertilized by semen outside the body; non-in vitro fertilization assisted reproductive technology treatments include ovulation induction, artificial insemination, and intrauterine insemination. Use of assisted reproductive technology has risen steadily in the United States during the past 2 decades due to several reasons, including childbearing at older maternal ages and increasing insurance coverage. The number of in vitro fertilization cycles in the United States has nearly doubled from 2000 through 2013 and currently 1.7% of all live births in the United States are the result of this technology. Since the birth of the first child from in vitro fertilization >35 years ago, >5 million babies have been born from in vitro fertilization, half within the past 6 years. It is estimated that 1% of singletons, 19% of twins, and 25% of triplet or higher multiples are due to in vitro fertilization, and 4%, 21%, and 52%, respectively, are due to non-in vitro fertilization assisted reproductive technology. Higher plurality at birth results in a >10-fold increase in the risks for prematurity and low birthweight in twins vs singletons (adjusted odds ratio, 11.84; 95% confidence interval, 10.56-13.27 and adjusted odds ratio, 10.68; 95% confidence interval, 9.45-12.08, respectively). The use of donor oocytes is associated with increased risks for pregnancy-induced hypertension (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.78) and prematurity (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.83). The use of thawed embryos is associated with higher risks for pregnancy-induced hypertension (adjusted odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.57) and large-for-gestation birthweight (adjusted odds ratio, 1.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.45-2.08). Among singletons, in vitro fertilization is associated with increased risk of severe maternal morbidity compared with fertile deliveries (vaginal: adjusted odds ratio, 2.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-2.88; cesarean: adjusted odds ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-1.98, respectively) and subfertile deliveries (vaginal: adjusted odds ratio, 1.97; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-3.00; cesarean: adjusted odds ratio, 1.75; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.35, respectively). Among twins, cesarean in vitro fertilization deliveries have significantly greater severe maternal morbidity compared to cesarean fertile deliveries (adjusted odds ratio, 1.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.93). Subfertility, with or without in vitro fertilization or non-in vitro fertilization infertility treatments to achieve a pregnancy, is associated with increased risks of adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes. The major risk from in vitro fertilization treatments of multiple births (and the associated excess of perinatal morbidity) has been reduced over time, with fewer and better-quality embryos being transferred. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Family environment, hobbies and habits as psychosocial predictors of survival for surgically treated patients with breast cancer.

PubMed

Tominaga, K; Andow, J; Koyama, Y; Numao, S; Kurokawa, E; Ojima, M; Nagai, M

1998-01-01

Many psychosocial factors have been reported to influence the duration of survival of breast cancer patients. We have studied how family members, hobbies and habits of the patients may alter their psychosocial status. Female patients with surgically treated breast cancer diagnosed between 1986 and 1995 at the Tochigi Cancer Center Hospital, who provided information on the above-mentioned factors, were used. Their subsequent physical status was followed up in the outpatients clinic. The Cox regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between the results of the factors examined and the duration of the patients' survival, adjusting for the patients' age, stage of disease at diagnosis and curability, as judged by the physician in charge after the treatment. The following factors were revealed to be significant with regard to the survival of surgically treated breast cancer patients: being a widow (hazard ratio 3.29; 95% confidence interval 1.32-8.20), having a hobby (hazard ratio 0.43; 95% confidence interval 0.23-0.82), number of hobbies (hazard ratio 0.64; 95% confidence interval 0.41-1.00), number of female children (hazard ratio 0.64; 95% confidence interval 0.42-0.98), smoker (hazard ratio 2.08; 95% confidence interval 1.02-4.26) and alcohol consumption (hazard ratio 0.10; 95% confidence interval 0.01-0.72). These results suggest that psychosocial factors, including the family environment, where patients receive emotional support from their spouse and children, hobbies and the patients' habits, may influence the duration of survival in surgically treated breast cancer patients.

Anomalously shallow inclination in middle-northern part of the South China block: palaeomagnetic study of Late Cretaceous red beds from Yichang area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narumoto, Kazutoshi; Yang, Zhenyu; Takemoto, Kazuhiro; Zaman, Haider; Morinaga, Hayao; Otofuji, Yo-ichiro

2006-02-01

We present new palaeomagnetic results from Late Cretaceous red beds of the Paomagang Formation collected at 42 sites in the Yichang area (30.7°N, 111.7°E), middle-northern part of the South China Block. A high unblocking temperature component around 680°C was isolated from 26 sites by stepwise thermal demagnetization. Fold tests are positive at the 95 per cent confidence limit for 14 and 11 sites of the Paomagang and Wangdian areas, respectively. Normal and reversed polarity sequence found in the Wangdian area passed a reversal test at the 95 per cent confidence limit. The tilt-corrected mean direction for Yichang area is D= 3.8°, I= 23.3° (α95= 5.1°,N= 26), corresponding to a palaeopole at 71.5°N, 280.0°E with A95= 4.3°. Comparison with the expected inclination from the 80 Ma Eurasian APWP pole indicates a inclination flattening of 26.3°+/- 6.4°. Middle Cretaceous to Cenozoic NW-SE extension tectonics within the SCB contributes only 2.0° to the inclination flattening. While the massive samples of the Paomagang Formation show a moderate degree of anisotropy (1.017 < Pj < 1.086) and steeper inclination (I= 29.3°), the laminated samples, which form more than 75 per cent of the studied samples, show a higher degree of anisotropy (1.052 < Pj < 1.227) and shallower inclination value (I= 22.7°). A good correlation between remanence inclination and facies types indicates that depositional processes produced the observed shallow inclination in the Yichang area.

Taichi exercise for self-rated sleep quality in older people: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Du, Shizheng; Dong, Jianshu; Zhang, Heng; Jin, Shengji; Xu, Guihua; Liu, Zengxia; Chen, Lixia; Yin, Haiyan; Sun, Zhiling

2015-01-01

Self-reported sleep disorders are common in older adults, resulting in serious consequences. Non-pharmacological measures are important complementary interventions, among which Taichi exercise is a popular alternative. Some experiments have been performed; however, the effect of Taichi exercise in improving sleep quality in older people has yet to be validated by systematic review. Using systematic review and meta-analysis, this study aimed to examine the efficacy of Taichi exercise in promoting self-reported sleep quality in older adults. Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled studies. 4 English databases: Pubmed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and CINAHL, and 4 Chinese databases: CBMdisc, CNKI, VIP, and Wanfang database were searched through December 2013. Two reviewers independently selected eligible trials, conducted critical appraisal of the methodological quality by using the quality appraisal criteria for randomized controlled studies recommended by Cochrane Handbook. A standardized data form was used to extract information. Meta-analysis was performed. Five randomized controlled studies met inclusion criteria. All suffered from some methodological flaws. The results of this study showed that Taichi has large beneficial effect on sleep quality in older people, as indicated by decreases in the global Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index score [standardized mean difference=-0.87, 95% confidence intervals (95% confidence interval) (-1.25, -0.49)], as well as its sub-domains of subjective sleep quality [standardized mean difference=-0.83, 95% confidence interval (-1.08, -0.57)], sleep latency [standardized mean difference=-0.75, 95% confidence interval (-1.42, -0.07)], sleep duration [standardized mean difference=-0.55, 95% confidence interval (-0.90, -0.21)], habitual sleep efficiency [standardized mean difference=-0.49, 95% confidence interval (-0.74, -0.23)], sleep disturbance [standardized mean difference=-0.44, 95% confidence interval (-0.69, -0.19)], and daytime dysfunction [standardized mean difference=-0.34, 95% confidence interval (-0.59, -0.09)]. Daytime sleepiness improvement was also observed. Weak evidence shows that Taichi exercise has a beneficial effect in improving self-rated sleep quality for older adults, suggesting that Taichi could be an effective alternative and complementary approach to existing therapies for older people with sleep problems. More rigorous experimental studies are required. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Previous treatment, sputum-smear nonconversion, and suburban living: The risk factors of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among Malaysians.

PubMed

Mohd Shariff, Noorsuzana; Shah, Shamsul Azhar; Kamaludin, Fadzilah

2016-03-01

The number of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients is increasing each year in many countries all around the globe. Malaysia has no exception in facing this burdensome health problem. We aimed to investigate the factors that contribute to the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among Malaysian tuberculosis patients. An unmatched case-control study was conducted among tuberculosis patients who received antituberculosis treatments from April 2013 until April 2014. Cases are those diagnosed as pulmonary tuberculosis patients clinically, radiologically, and/or bacteriologically, and who were confirmed to be resistant to both isoniazid and rifampicin through drug-sensitivity testing. On the other hand, pulmonary tuberculosis patients who were sensitive to all first-line antituberculosis drugs and were treated during the same time period served as controls. A total of 150 tuberculosis patients were studied, of which the susceptible cases were 120. Factors found to be significantly associated with the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis are being Indian or Chinese (odds ratio 3.17, 95% confidence interval 1.04-9.68; and odds ratio 6.23, 95% confidence interval 2.24-17.35, respectively), unmarried (odds ratio 2.58, 95% confidence interval 1.09-6.09), living in suburban areas (odds ratio 2.58, 95% confidence interval 1.08-6.19), are noncompliant (odds ratio 4.50, 95% confidence interval 1.71-11.82), were treated previously (odds ratio 8.91, 95% confidence interval 3.66-21.67), and showed positive sputum smears at the 2nd (odds ratio 7.00, 95% confidence interval 2.46-19.89) and 6th months of treatment (odds ratio 17.96, 95% confidence interval 3.51-91.99). Living in suburban areas, positive sputum smears in the 2nd month of treatment, and was treated previously are factors that independently contribute to the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Those with positive smears in the second month of treatment, have a history of previous treatment, and live in suburban areas are found to have a higher probability of becoming multidrug resistant. The results presented here may facilitate improvements in the screening and detection process of drug-resistant patients in Malaysia in the future. Copyright © 2015 Asian-African Society for Mycobacteriology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: X-ray sources in the AKARI NEP deep field (Krumpe+, 2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krumpe, M.; Miyaji, T.; Brunner, H.; Hanami, H.; Ishigaki, T.; Takagi, T.; Markowitz, A. G.; Goto, T.; Malkan, M. A.; Matsuhara, H.; Pearson, C.; Ueda, Y.; Wada, T.

2015-06-01

The fits images labelled SeMap* are the sensitivity maps in which we give the minimum flux that would have caused a detection at each position. This flux depends on the maximum likelihood threshold chosen in the source detection run, the point spread function, and the background level at the chosen position. We create sensitivity maps in different energy bands (0.5-2, 0.5-7, 2-4, 2-7, and 4-7keV) by searching for the flux to reject the null-hypothesis that the flux at a given position is only caused by a background fluctuation. In a chosen energy band, we determine for each position in the survey the flux required to obtain a certain Poisson probability above the background counts. Since ML=-ln(P), we know from our ML=12 threshold the probability we are aiming for. In practice, we search for a value of -ln P_total that falls within Delta ML=+/-0.2 of our targeted ML threshold. This tolerance range corresponds to having one spurious source more or less in the whole survey. Note, that outside the deep Subaru/Suprime-Cam imaging the sensitivity maps should be used with caution since we assume for their generation a ML=12 over the whole area covered by Chandra. More details on the procedure of producing the sensitivity maps, including the PSF-summed background map and PSF-weighted averaged exposure maps are given in the paper, section 5.3. The fits images labelled u90* are the upper limit maps, where the upper 90 per cent confidence flux limit is given at each position. We take a Bayesian approach following Kraft, Burrows & Nousek, 1991ApJ...374..344K. Consequently, we obtain the upper 90~per cent confidence flux limit by searching for the flux such that given the observed counts the Bayesian probability of having this flux or larger is 10~per cent. More details on the procedure of producing the upper 90 per cent flux limit maps are given in the paper, section 5.4. (6 data files).

Stapled versus handsewn methods for colorectal anastomosis surgery.

PubMed

Lustosa, S A; Matos, D; Atallah, A N; Castro, A A

2001-01-01

Randomized controlled trials comparing stapled with handsewn colorectal anastomosis have not shown either technique to be superior, perhaps because individual studies lacked statistical power. A systematic review, with pooled analysis of results, might provide a more definitive answer. To compare the safety and effectiveness of stapled and handsewn colorectal anastomosis. The following primary hypothesis was tested: the stapled technique is more effective because it decreases the level of complications. The RCT register of the Cochrane Review Group was searched for any trial or reference to a relevant trial (published, in-press, or in progress). All publications were sought through computerised searches of EMBASE, LILACS, MEDLINE, the Cochrane Controlled Clinical Trials Database, and through letters to industrial companies and authors. There were no limits upon language, date, or other criteria. All randomized clinical trials (RCTs) in which stapled and handsewn colorectal anastomosis were compared. Adult patients submitted electively to colorectal anastomosis. Endoluminal circular stapler and handsewn colorectal anastomosis. a) Mortality b) Overall Anastomotic Dehiscence c) Clinical Anastomotic Dehiscence d) Radiological Anastomotic Dehiscence e) Stricture f) Anastomotic Haemorrhage g) Reoperation h) Wound Infection i) Anastomosis Duration j) Hospital Stay. Data were independently extracted by the two reviewers (SASL, DM) and cross-checked. The methodological quality of each trial was assessed by the same two reviewers. Details of the randomization (generation and concealment), blinding, whether an intention-to-treat analysis was done, and the number of patients lost to follow-up were recorded. The results of each RCT were summarised on an intention-to-treat basis in 2 x 2 tables for each outcome. External validity was defined by characteristics of the participants, the interventions and the outcomes. The RCTs were stratified according to the level of colorectal anastomosis. The Risk Difference method (random effects model) and NNT for dichotomous outcomes measures and weighted mean difference for continuous outcomes measures, with the corresponding 95% confidence interval, were presented in this review. Statistical heterogeneity was evaluated by using funnel plot and chi-square testing. Of the 1233 patients enrolled ( in 9 trials), 622 were treated with stapled, and 611 with manual, suture. The following main results were obtained: a) Mortality: result based on 901 patients; Risk Difference - 0.6% Confidence Interval -2.8% to +1.6%. b) Overall Dehiscence: result based on 1233 patients; Risk Difference 0.2%, 95% Confidence Interval -5.0% to +5.3%. c) Clinical Anastomotic Dehiscence : result based on 1233 patients; Risk Difference -1.4%, 95% Confidence Interval -5.2 to +2.3%. d) Radiological Anastomotic Dehiscence : result based on 825 patients; Risk Difference 1.2%, 95% Confidence Interval -4.8% to +7.3%. e) Stricture: result based on 1042 patients; Risk Difference 4.6%, 95% Confidence Interval 1.2% to 8.1%. Number needed to treat 17, 95% confidence interval 12 to 31. f) Anastomotic Hemorrhage: result based on 662 patients; Risk Difference 2.7%, 95% Confidence Interval - 0.1% to +5.5%. g) Reoperation: result based on 544 patients; Risk Difference 3.9%, 95% Confidence Interval 0.3% to 7.4%. h) Wound Infection: result based on 567 patients; Risk Difference 1.0%, 95% Confidence Interval -2.2% to +4.3%. i) Anastomosis duration: result based on one study (159 patients); Weighted Mean Difference -7.6 minutes, 95% Confidence Interval -12.9 to -2.2 minutes. j) Hospital Stay: result based on one study (159 patients), Weighted Mean Difference 2.0 days, 95% Confidence Interval -3.27 to +7.2 days. The evidence found was insufficient to demonstrate any superiority of stapled over handsewn techniques in colorectal anastomosis, regardless of the level of anastomosis.

Etiological classifications of transient ischemic attacks: subtype classification by TOAST, CCS and ASCO--a pilot study.

PubMed

Amort, Margareth; Fluri, Felix; Weisskopf, Florian; Gensicke, Henrik; Bonati, Leo H; Lyrer, Philippe A; Engelter, Stefan T

2012-01-01

In patients with transient ischemic attacks (TIA), etiological classification systems are not well studied. The Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST), the Causative Classification System (CCS), and the Atherosclerosis Small Vessel Disease Cardiac Source Other Cause (ASCO) classification may be useful to determine the underlying etiology. We aimed at testing the feasibility of each of the 3 systems. Furthermore, we studied and compared their prognostic usefulness. In a single-center TIA registry prospectively ascertained over 2 years, we applied 3 etiological classification systems. We compared the distribution of underlying etiologies, the rates of patients with determined versus undetermined etiology, and studied whether etiological subtyping distinguished TIA patients with versus without subsequent stroke or TIA within 3 months. The 3 systems were applicable in all 248 patients. A determined etiology with the highest level of causality was assigned similarly often with TOAST (35.9%), CCS (34.3%), and ASCO (38.7%). However, the frequency of undetermined causes differed significantly between the classification systems and was lowest for ASCO (TOAST: 46.4%; CCS: 37.5%; ASCO: 18.5%; p < 0.001). In TOAST, CCS, and ASCO, cardioembolism (19.4/14.5/18.5%) was the most common etiology, followed by atherosclerosis (11.7/12.9/14.5%). At 3 months, 33 patients (13.3%, 95% confidence interval 9.3-18.2%) had recurrent cerebral ischemic events. These were strokes in 13 patients (5.2%; 95% confidence interval 2.8-8.8%) and TIAs in 20 patients (8.1%, 95% confidence interval 5.0-12.2%). Patients with a determined etiology (high level of causality) had higher rates of subsequent strokes than those without a determined etiology [TOAST: 6.7% (95% confidence interval 2.5-14.1%) vs. 4.4% (95% confidence interval 1.8-8.9%); CSS: 9.3% (95% confidence interval 4.1-17.5%) vs. 3.1% (95% confidence interval 1.0-7.1%); ASCO: 9.4% (95% confidence interval 4.4-17.1%) vs. 2.6% (95% confidence interval 0.7-6.6%)]. However, this difference was only significant in the ASCO classification (p = 0.036). Using ASCO, there was neither an increase in risk of subsequent stroke among patients with incomplete diagnostic workup (at least one subtype scored 9) compared with patients with adequate workup (no subtype scored 9), nor among patients with multiple causes compared with patients with a single cause. In TIA patients, all etiological classification systems provided a similar distribution of underlying etiologies. The increase in stroke risk in TIA patients with determined versus undetermined etiology was most evident using the ASCO classification. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Therapeutic ultrasound for acute ankle sprains.

PubMed

van den Bekerom, Michel Pj; van der Windt, Daniëlle Awm; Ter Riet, Gerben; van der Heijden, Geert J; Bouter, Lex M

2011-06-15

Ultrasound is used in the treatment of a wide variety of musculoskeletal disorders, which include acute ankle sprains. This is an update of a Cochrane review first published in 1999, and previously updated in 2004. To evaluate the effects of ultrasound therapy in the treatment of acute ankle sprains. We searched the Cochrane Bone, Joint and Muscle Trauma Group Specialised Register (September 2010), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library 2010, Issue 3), MEDLINE (1966 to September 2010), EMBASE (1983 to September 2010), CINAHL (1982 to 2004), and PEDro - the Physiotherapy Evidence Database (accessed 01/06/09). We also searched the Cochrane Rehabilitation and Related Therapies Field database, reference lists of articles, and contacted colleagues.The WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform was searched for ongoing trials. Randomised or quasi-randomised trials were included if the following conditions were met: at least one study group was treated with therapeutic ultrasound; participants had acute lateral ankle sprains; and outcome measures included general improvement, pain, swelling, functional disability, or range of motion. Two authors independently performed study selection, and assessed the risk of bias and extracted data. Risk ratios and risk differences together with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for dichotomous outcomes and mean differences together with 95% confidence intervals for continuous outcome measures. Limited pooling of data was undertaken where there was clinical homogeneity in terms of participants, treatments, outcomes, and follow-up time points. Six trials were included, involving 606 participants. Five trials included comparisons of ultrasound therapy with sham ultrasound; and three trials included single comparisons of ultrasound with three other treatments. The assessment of risk of bias was hampered by poor reporting of trial methods and results. None of the five placebo-controlled trials (sham ultrasound) demonstrated statistically significant differences between true and sham ultrasound therapy for any outcome measure at one to four weeks of follow-up. The pooled risk ratio for general improvement at one week was 1.04 (random-effects model, 95% confidence interval 0.92 to 1.17) for active versus sham ultrasound. The differences between intervention groups were generally small, between zero and six per cent, for most dichotomous outcomes. The evidence from the five small placebo-controlled trials included in this review does not support the use of ultrasound in the treatment of acute ankle sprains. The potential treatment effects of ultrasound appear to be generally small and of probably of limited clinical importance, especially in the context of the usually short-term recovery period for these injuries. However, the available evidence is insufficient to rule out the possibility that there is an optimal dosage schedule for ultrasound therapy that may be of benefit.

Likelihood-based confidence intervals for estimating floods with given return periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Eduardo Sávio P. R.; Clarke, Robin T.

1993-06-01

This paper discusses aspects of the calculation of likelihood-based confidence intervals for T-year floods, with particular reference to (1) the two-parameter gamma distribution; (2) the Gumbel distribution; (3) the two-parameter log-normal distribution, and other distributions related to the normal by Box-Cox transformations. Calculation of the confidence limits is straightforward using the Nelder-Mead algorithm with a constraint incorporated, although care is necessary to ensure convergence either of the Nelder-Mead algorithm, or of the Newton-Raphson calculation of maximum-likelihood estimates. Methods are illustrated using records from 18 gauging stations in the basin of the River Itajai-Acu, State of Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. A small and restricted simulation compared likelihood-based confidence limits with those given by use of the central limit theorem; for the same confidence probability, the confidence limits of the simulation were wider than those of the central limit theorem, which failed more frequently to contain the true quantile being estimated. The paper discusses possible applications of likelihood-based confidence intervals in other areas of hydrological analysis.

Main-belt comets in the Palomar Transient Factory survey - I. The search for extendedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waszczak, A.; Ofek, E. O.; Aharonson, O.; Kulkarni, S. R.; Polishook, D.; Bauer, J. M.; Levitan, D.; Sesar, B.; Laher, R.; Surace, J.; PTF Team

2013-08-01

Cometary activity in main-belt asteroids probes the ice content of these objects and provides clues to the history of volatiles in the inner Solar system. We search the Palomar Transient Factory survey to derive upper limits on the population size of active main-belt comets (MBCs). From data collected from 2009 March through 2012 July, we extracted ˜2 million observations of ˜220 thousand known main-belt objects (40 per cent of the known population, down to ˜1-km diameter) and discovered 626 new objects in multinight linked detections. We formally quantify the `extendedness' of a small-body observation, account for systematic variation in this metric (e.g. due to on-sky motion) and evaluate this method's robustness in identifying cometary activity using observations of 115 comets, including two known candidate MBCs and six newly discovered non-MBCs (two of which were originally designated as asteroids by other surveys). We demonstrate a 66 per cent detection efficiency with respect to the extendedness distribution of the 115 sampled comets, and a 100 per cent detection efficiency with respect to extendedness levels greater than or equal to those we observed in the known candidate MBCs P/2010 R2 (La Sagra) and P/2006 VW139. Using a log-constant prior, we infer 95 per cent confidence upper limits of 33 and 22 active MBCs (per million main-belt asteroids down to ˜1-km diameter), for detection efficiencies of 66 and 100 per cent, respectively. In a follow-up to this morphological search, we will perform a photometric (disc-integrated brightening) search for MBCs.

Estimating equivalence with quantile regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.

2011-01-01

Equivalence testing and corresponding confidence interval estimates are used to provide more enlightened statistical statements about parameter estimates by relating them to intervals of effect sizes deemed to be of scientific or practical importance rather than just to an effect size of zero. Equivalence tests and confidence interval estimates are based on a null hypothesis that a parameter estimate is either outside (inequivalence hypothesis) or inside (equivalence hypothesis) an equivalence region, depending on the question of interest and assignment of risk. The former approach, often referred to as bioequivalence testing, is often used in regulatory settings because it reverses the burden of proof compared to a standard test of significance, following a precautionary principle for environmental protection. Unfortunately, many applications of equivalence testing focus on establishing average equivalence by estimating differences in means of distributions that do not have homogeneous variances. I discuss how to compare equivalence across quantiles of distributions using confidence intervals on quantile regression estimates that detect differences in heterogeneous distributions missed by focusing on means. I used one-tailed confidence intervals based on inequivalence hypotheses in a two-group treatment-control design for estimating bioequivalence of arsenic concentrations in soils at an old ammunition testing site and bioequivalence of vegetation biomass at a reclaimed mining site. Two-tailed confidence intervals based both on inequivalence and equivalence hypotheses were used to examine quantile equivalence for negligible trends over time for a continuous exponential model of amphibian abundance. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Fasting glucose levels, incident diabetes, subclinical atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events in apparently healthy adults: A 12-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Sitnik, Debora; Santos, Itamar S; Goulart, Alessandra C; Staniak, Henrique L; Manson, JoAnn E; Lotufo, Paulo A; Bensenor, Isabela M

2016-11-01

We aimed to study the association between fasting plasma glucose, diabetes incidence and cardiovascular burden after 10-12 years. We evaluated diabetes and cardiovascular events incidences, carotid intima-media thickness and coronary artery calcium scores in ELSA-Brasil (the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health) baseline (2008-2010) of 1536 adults without diabetes in 1998. We used regression models to estimate association with carotid intima-media thickness (in mm), coronary artery calcium scores (in Agatston points) and cardiovascular events according to fasting plasma glucose in 1998. Adjusted diabetes incidence rate was 9.8/1000 person-years (95% confidence interval: 7.7-13.6/1000 person-years). Incident diabetes was positively associated with higher fasting plasma glucose. Fasting plasma glucose levels 110-125 mg/dL were associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (β = 0.028; 95% confidence interval: 0.003-0.053). Excluding those with incident diabetes, there was a borderline association between higher carotid intima-media thickness and fasting plasma glucose 110-125 mg/dL (β = 0.030; 95% confidence interval: -0.005 to 0.065). Incident diabetes was associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (β = 0.034; 95% confidence interval: 0.015-0.053), coronary artery calcium scores ⩾400 (odds ratio = 2.84; 95% confidence interval: 1.17-6.91) and the combined outcome of a coronary artery calcium scores ⩾400 or incident cardiovascular event (odds ratio = 3.50; 95% confidence interval: 1.60-7.65). In conclusion, fasting plasma glucose in 1998 and incident diabetes were associated with higher cardiovascular burden. © The Author(s) 2016.

Prevalence of infections among residents of Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Choy, C Sm; Chen, H; Yau, C Sw; Hsu, E K; Chik, N Y; Wong, A Ty

2016-08-01

A point prevalence study was conducted to study the epidemiology of common infections among residents in Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong and their associated factors. Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong were selected by stratified single-stage cluster random sampling. All residents aged 65 years or above from the recruited homes were surveyed. Infections were identified using standardised definitions. Demographic and health information-including medical history, immunisation record, antibiotic use, and activities of daily living (as measured by Barthel Index)-was collected by a survey team to determine any associated factors. Data were collected from 3857 residents in 46 Residential Care Homes for the Elderly from February to May 2014. A total of 105 residents had at least one type of infection based on the survey definition. The overall prevalence of all infections was 2.7% (95% confidence interval, 2.2%-3.4%). The three most common infections were of the respiratory tract (1.3%; 95% confidence interval, 0.9%-1.9%), skin and soft tissue (0.7%; 95% confidence interval, 0.5%-1.0%), and urinary tract (0.5%; 95% confidence interval, 0.3%-0.9%). Total dependence in activities of daily living, as indicated by low Barthel Index score of 0 to 20 (odds ratio=3.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-6.2), and presence of a wound or stoma (odds ratio=2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-4.9) were significantly associated with presence of infection. This survey provides information about infections among residents in Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in the territory. Local data enable us to understand the burden of infections and formulate targeted measures for prevention.

Influence of Objective Three-Dimensional Measures and Movement Images on Surgeon Treatment Planning for Lip Revision Surgery

PubMed Central

Trotman, Carroll-Ann; Phillips, Ceib; Faraway, Julian J.; Hartman, Terry; van Aalst, John A.

2013-01-01

Objective To determine whether a systematic evaluation of facial soft tissues of patients with cleft lip and palate, using facial video images and objective three-dimensional measurements of movement, change surgeons’ treatment plans for lip revision surgery. Design Prospective longitudinal study. Setting The University of North Carolina School of Dentistry. Patients, Participants A group of patients with repaired cleft lip and palate (n = 21), a noncleft control group (n = 37), and surgeons experienced in cleft care. Interventions Lip revision. Main Outcome Measures (1) facial photographic images; (2) facial video images during animations; (3) objective three-dimensional measurements of upper lip movement based on z scores; and (4) objective dynamic and visual three-dimensional measurement of facial soft tissue movement. Results With the use of the video images plus objective three-dimensional measures, changes were made to the problem list of the surgical treatment plan for 86% of the patients (95% confidence interval, 0.64 to 0.97) and the surgical goals for 71% of the patients (95% confidence interval, 0.48 to 0.89). The surgeon group varied in the percentage of patients for whom the problem list was modified, ranging from 24% (95% confidence interval, 8% to 47%) to 48% (95% confidence interval, 26% to 70%) of patients, and the percentage for whom the surgical goals were modified, ranging from 14% (94% confidence interval, 3% to 36%) to 48% (95% confidence interval, 26% to 70%) of patients. Conclusions For all surgeons, the additional assessment components of the systematic valuation resulted in a change in clinical decision making for some patients. PMID:23855676

Lower hospital mortality and complications after pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Bratton, Susan L; Van Duker, Heather; Statler, Kimberly D; Pulsipher, Michael A; McArthur, Jennifer; Keenan, Heather T

2008-03-01

To assess protective and risk factors for mortality among pediatric patients during initial care after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) and to evaluate changes in hospital mortality. Retrospective cohort using the 1997, 2000, and 2003 Kids Inpatient Database, a probabilistic sample of children hospitalized in the United States with a procedure code for HSCT. Hospitalized patients in the United States submitted to the database. Age, <19 yrs. None. Hospital mortality significantly decreased from 12% in 1997 to 6% in 2003. Source of stem cells changed with increased use of cord blood. Rates of sepsis, graft versus host disease, and mechanical ventilation significantly decreased. Compared with autologous HSCT, patients who received an allogenic HSCT without T-cell depletion were more likely to die (adjusted odds ratio, 2.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.5, 3.9), while children who received cord blood HSCT were at the greatest risk of hospital death (adjusted odds ratio, 4.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.6, 9.1). Mechanical ventilation (adjusted odds ratio, 26.32; 95% confidence interval, 16.3-42.2), dialysis (adjusted odds ratio, 12.9; 95% confidence interval, 4.7-35.4), and sepsis (adjusted odds ratio, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.5-6.1) were all independently associated with death, while care in 2003 was associated with decreased risk (adjusted odds ratio, 0.4; 95% confidence interval, 0.2-0.7) of death. Hospital mortality after HSCT in children decreased over time as did complications including need for mechanical ventilation, graft versus host disease, and sepsis. Prevention of complications is essential as the need for invasive support continues to be associated with high mortality risk.

High prevalence of refractive errors in a rural population: 'Nooravaran Salamat' Mobile Eye Clinic experience.

PubMed

Hashemi, Hassan; Rezvan, Farhad; Ostadimoghaddam, Hadi; Abdollahi, Majid; Hashemi, Maryam; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi

2013-01-01

The prevalence of myopia and hyperopia and determinants were determined in a rural population of Iran. Population-based cross-sectional study. Using random cluster sampling, 13 of the 83 villages of Khaf County in the north east of Iran were selected. Data from 2001 people over the age of 15 years were analysed. Visual acuity measurement, non-cycloplegic refraction and eye examinations were done at the Mobile Eye Clinic. The prevalence of myopia and hyperopia based on spherical equivalent worse than -0.5 dioptre and +0.5 dioptre, respectively. The prevalence of myopia, hyperopia and anisometropia in the total study sample was 28% (95% confidence interval: 25.9-30.2), 19.2% (95% confidence interval: 17.3-21.1), and 11.5% (95% confidence interval: 10.0-13.1), respectively. In the over 40 population, the prevalence of myopia and hyperopia was 32.5% (95% confidence interval: 28.9-36.1) and 27.9% (95% confidence interval: 24.5-31.3), respectively. In the multiple regression model for this group, myopia strongly correlated with cataract (odds ratio = 1.98 and 95% confidence interval: 1.33-2.93), and hyperopia only correlated with age (P < 0.001). The prevalence of high myopia and high hyperopia was 1.5% and 4.6%. In the multiple regression model, anisometropia significantly correlated with age (odds ratio = 1.04) and cataract (odds ratio = 5.2) (P < 0.001). The prevalence of myopia and anisometropia was higher than that in previous studies in urban population of Iran, especially in the elderly. Cataract was the only variable that correlated with myopia and anisometropia. © 2013 The Authors. Clinical and Experimental Ophthalmology © 2013 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

The Association Between Maternal Age and Cerebral Palsy Risk Factors.

PubMed

Schneider, Rilla E; Ng, Pamela; Zhang, Xun; Andersen, John; Buckley, David; Fehlings, Darcy; Kirton, Adam; Wood, Ellen; van Rensburg, Esias; Shevell, Michael I; Oskoui, Maryam

2018-05-01

Advanced maternal age is associated with higher frequencies of antenatal and perinatal conditions, as well as a higher risk of cerebral palsy in offspring. We explore the association between maternal age and specific cerebral palsy risk factors. Data were extracted from the Canadian Cerebral Palsy Registry. Maternal age was categorized as ≥35 years of age and less than 20 years of age at the time of birth. Chi-square and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to calculate odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. The final sample consisted of 1391 children with cerebral palsy, with 19% of children having mothers aged 35 or older and 4% of children having mothers below the age of 20. Univariate analyses showed that mothers aged 35 or older were more likely to have gestational diabetes (odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.8), to have a history of miscarriage (odds ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.4), to have undergone fertility treatments (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 3.9), and to have delivered by Caesarean section (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 2.2). These findings were supported by multivariate analyses. Children with mothers below the age of 20 were more likely to have a congenital malformation (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.2), which is also supported by multivariate analysis. The risk factor profiles of children with cerebral palsy vary by maternal age. Future studies are warranted to further our understanding of the compound causal pathways leading to cerebral palsy and the observed greater prevalence of cerebral palsy with increasing maternal age. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Priorities for treatment, care and information if faced with serious illness: a comparative population-based survey in seven European countries.

PubMed

Higginson, Irene J; Gomes, Barbara; Calanzani, Natalia; Gao, Wei; Bausewein, Claudia; Daveson, Barbara A; Deliens, Luc; Ferreira, Pedro L; Toscani, Franco; Gysels, Marjolein; Ceulemans, Lucas; Simon, Steffen T; Cohen, Joachim; Harding, Richard

2014-02-01

Health-care costs are growing, with little population-based data about people's priorities for end-of-life care, to guide service development and aid discussions. We examined variations in people's priorities for treatment, care and information across seven European countries. Telephone survey of a random sample of households; we asked respondents their priorities if 'faced with a serious illness, like cancer, with limited time to live' and used multivariable logistic regressions to identify associated factors. Members of the general public aged ≥ 16 years residing in England, Flanders, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. In total, 9344 individuals were interviewed. Most people chose 'improve quality of life for the time they had left', ranging from 57% (95% confidence interval: 55%-60%, Italy) to 81% (95% confidence interval: 79%-83%, Spain). Only 2% (95% confidence interval: 1%-3%, England) to 6% (95% confidence interval: 4%-7%, Flanders) said extending life was most important, and 15% (95% confidence interval: 13%-17%, Spain) to 40% (95% confidence interval: 37%-43%, Italy) said quality and extension were equally important. Prioritising quality of life was associated with higher education in all countries (odds ratio = 1.3 (Flanders) to 7.9 (Italy)), experience of caregiving or bereavement (England, Germany, Portugal), prioritising pain/symptom control over having a positive attitude and preferring death in a hospice/palliative care unit. Those prioritising extending life had the highest home death preference of all groups. Health status did not affect priorities. Across all countries, extending life was prioritised by a minority, regardless of health status. Treatment and care needs to be reoriented with patient education and palliative care becoming mainstream for serious conditions such as cancer.

Air pollution attributable postneonatal infant mortality in U.S. metropolitan areas: a risk assessment study

PubMed Central

Kaiser, Reinhard; Romieu, Isabelle; Medina, Sylvia; Schwartz, Joel; Krzyzanowski, Michal; Künzli, Nino

2004-01-01

Background The impact of outdoor air pollution on infant mortality has not been quantified. Methods Based on exposure-response functions from a U.S. cohort study, we assessed the attributable risk of postneonatal infant mortality in 23 U.S. metropolitan areas related to particulate matter <10 μm in diameter (PM10) as a surrogate of total air pollution. Results The estimated proportion of all cause mortality, sudden infant death syndrome (normal birth weight infants only) and respiratory disease mortality (normal birth weight) attributable to PM10 above a chosen reference value of 12.0 μg/m3 PM10 was 6% (95% confidence interval 3–11%), 16% (95% confidence interval 9–23%) and 24% (95% confidence interval 7–44%), respectively. The expected number of infant deaths per year in the selected areas was 106 (95% confidence interval 53–185), 79 (95% confidence interval 46–111) and 15 (95% confidence interval 5–27), respectively. Approximately 75% of cases were from areas where the current levels are at or below the new U.S. PM2.5 standard of 15 μg/m3 (equivalent to 25 μg/m3 PM10). In a country where infant mortality rates and air pollution levels are relatively low, ambient air pollution as measured by particulate matter contributes to a substantial fraction of infant death, especially for those due to sudden infant death syndrome and respiratory disease. Even if all counties would comply to the new PM2.5 standard, the majority of the estimated burden would remain. Conclusion Given the inherent limitations of risk assessments, further studies are needed to support and quantify the relationship between infant mortality and air pollution. PMID:15128459

Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

PubMed

Fung, Tak; Keenan, Kevin

2014-01-01

The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%), a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L.), occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.

Serum antibody titres to canine parvovirus, adenovirus and distemper virus in dogs in the UK which had not been vaccinated for at least three years.

PubMed

Böhm, M; Thompson, H; Weir, A; Hasted, A M; Maxwell, N S; Herrtage, M E

2004-04-10

Antibody titres to canine distemper (CDV), canine parvovirus (CPV) and canine adenovirus (CAV) were measured in 144 adult dogs that had not been vaccinated for between three and 15 years. Protective antibodies to CPV were present in 95 per cent of the population, to CDV in 71.5 per cent and to CAV in 82 per cent. The prevalence of protective titres did not decrease with increasing time interval from the last vaccination for any of the three diseases studied. Booster vaccination increased the dogs CAV titres. For comparative purposes, 199 puppies were sampled at the time of their first and second vaccination. In the case of CPV and CAV a significantly higher proportion of the adult dogs were protected than of the puppies immediately after they were vaccinated. Natural CPV boosting was strongly suspected because the dogs had significantly higher titres three years after their primary vaccination than two weeks after it and three unvaccinated dogs had acquired protective antibody levels uneventfully. There was no evidence of natural exposure to CDV.

Coefficient Alpha Bootstrap Confidence Interval under Nonnormality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin; Newton, Matthew

2012-01-01

Three different bootstrap methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient alpha were investigated. In addition, the bootstrap methods were compared with the most promising coefficient alpha CI estimation methods reported in the literature. The CI methods were assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation utilizing conditions…

Four Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for the Binomial-Error Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Miao-Hsiang; Hsiung, Chao A.

1992-01-01

Four bootstrap methods are identified for constructing confidence intervals for the binomial-error model. The extent to which similar results are obtained and the theoretical foundation of each method and its relevance and ranges of modeling the true score uncertainty are discussed. (SLD)

Teach a Confidence Interval for the Median in the First Statistics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howington, Eric B.

2017-01-01

Few introductory statistics courses consider statistical inference for the median. This article argues in favour of adding a confidence interval for the median to the first statistics course. Several methods suitable for introductory statistics students are identified and briefly reviewed.

Testing the existence of optical linear polarization in young brown dwarfs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manjavacas, E.; Miles-Páez, P. A.; Zapatero-Osorio, M. R.; Goldman, B.; Buenzli, E.; Henning, T.; Pallé, E.; Fang, M.

2017-07-01

Linear polarization can be used as a probe of the existence of atmospheric condensates in ultracool dwarfs. Models predict that the observed linear polarization increases with the degree of oblateness, which is inversely proportional to the surface gravity. We aimed to test the existence of optical linear polarization in a sample of bright young brown dwarfs, with spectral types between M6 and L2, observable from the Calar Alto Observatory, and cataloged previously as low gravity objects using spectroscopy. Linear polarimetric images were collected in I and R band using CAFOS at the 2.2-m telescope in Calar Alto Observatory (Spain). The flux ratio method was employed to determine the linear polarization degrees. With a confidence of 3σ, our data indicate that all targets have a linear polarimetry degree in average below 0.69 per cent in the I band, and below 1.0 per cent in the R band, at the time they were observed. We detected significant (I.e. P/σ ≥ 3) linear polarization for the young M6 dwarf 2MASS J04221413+1530525 in the R band, with a degree of p* = 0.81 ± 0.17 per cent.

Increased calcium supplementation is associated with morbidity and mortality in the infant postoperative cardiac patient.

PubMed

Dyke, Peter C; Yates, Andrew R; Cua, Clifford L; Hoffman, Timothy M; Hayes, John; Feltes, Timothy F; Springer, Michelle A; Taeed, Roozbeh

2007-05-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the association of calcium replacement therapy with morbidity and mortality in infants after cardiac surgery involving cardiopulmonary bypass. Retrospective chart review. The cardiac intensive care unit at a tertiary care children's hospital. Infants undergoing cardiac surgery involving cardiopulmonary bypass between October 2002 and August 2004. None. Total calcium replacement (mg/kg calcium chloride given) for the first 72 postoperative hours was measured. Morbidity and mortality data were collected. The total volume of blood products given during the first 72 hrs was recorded. Infants with confirmed chromosomal deletions at the 22q11 locus were noted. Correlation and logistic regression analyses were used to generate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals, with p < .05 being significant. One hundred seventy-one infants met inclusion criteria. Age was 4 +/- 3 months and weight was 4.9 +/- 1.7 kg at surgery. Six infants had deletions of chromosome 22q11. Infants who weighed less required more calcium replacement (r = -.28, p < .001). Greater calcium replacement correlated with a longer intensive care unit length of stay (r = .27, p < .001) and a longer total hospital length of stay (r = .23, p = .002). Greater calcium replacement was significantly associated with morbidity (liver dysfunction [odds ratio, 3.9; confidence interval, 2.1-7.3; p < .001], central nervous system complication [odds ratio, 1.8; confidence interval, 1.1-3.0; p = .02], infection [odds ratio, 1.5; confidence interval, 1.0-2.2; p < .04], extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [odds ratio, 5.0; confidence interval, 2.3-10.6; p < .001]) and mortality (odds ratio, 5.8; confidence interval, 5.8-5.9; p < .001). Greater calcium replacement was not associated with renal insufficiency (odds ratio, 1.5; confidence interval, 0.9-2.3; p = .07). Infants with >1 sd above the mean of total calcium replacement received on average fewer blood products than the total study population. Greater calcium replacement is associated with increasing morbidity and mortality. Further investigation of the etiology and therapy of hypocalcemia in this population is warranted.

WITHDRAWN: Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G Justus

2009-01-21

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However, it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register (October 2001) and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (Issue 3, 2001) were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Twelve studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.88); and reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.97). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0.12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Reliability of clinical findings and magnetic resonance imaging for the diagnosis of chondromalacia patellae.

PubMed

Pihlajamäki, Harri K; Kuikka, Paavo-Ilari; Leppänen, Vesa-Veikko; Kiuru, Martti J; Mattila, Ville M

2010-04-01

This diagnostic study was performed to determine the correlation between anterior knee pain and chondromalacia patellae and to define the reliability of magnetic resonance imaging for the diagnosis of chondromalacia patellae. Fifty-six young adults (median age, 19.5 years) with anterior knee pain had magnetic resonance imaging of the knee followed by arthroscopy. The patellar chondral lesions identified by magnetic resonance imaging were compared with the arthroscopic findings. Arthroscopy confirmed the presence of chondromalacia patellae in twenty-five (45%) of the fifty-six knees, a synovial plica in twenty-five knees, a meniscal tear in four knees, and a femorotibial chondral lesion in four knees; normal anatomy was seen in six knees. No association was found between the severity of the chondromalacia patellae seen at arthroscopy and the clinical symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome (p = 0.83). The positive predictive value for the ability of 1.0-T magnetic resonance imaging to detect chondromalacia patellae was 75% (95% confidence interval, 53% to 89%), the negative predictive value was 72% (95% confidence interval, 56% to 84%), the sensitivity was 60% (95% confidence interval, 41% to 77%), the specificity was 84% (95% confidence interval, 67% to 93%), and the diagnostic accuracy was 73% (95% confidence interval, 60% to 83%). The sensitivity was 13% (95% confidence interval, 2% to 49%) for grade-I lesions and 83% (95% confidence interval, 59% to 94%) for grade-II, III, or IV lesions. Chondromalacia patellae cannot be diagnosed on the basis of symptoms or with current physical examination methods. The present study demonstrated no correlation between the severity of chondromalacia patellae and the clinical symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome. Thus, symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome should not be used as an indication for knee arthroscopy. The sensitivity of 1.0-T magnetic resonance imaging was low for grade-I lesions but considerably higher for more severe (grade-II, III, or IV) lesions. Magnetic resonance imaging may be considered an accurate diagnostic tool for identification of more severe cases of chondromalacia patellae.

Asymptomatic Intradialytic Supraventricular Arrhythmias and Adverse Outcomes in Patients on Hemodialysis

PubMed Central

Pérez de Prado, Armando; López-Gómez, Juan M.; Quiroga, Borja; Goicoechea, Marian; García-Prieto, Ana; Torres, Esther; Reque, Javier; Luño, José

2016-01-01

Background and objectives Supraventricular arrhythmias are associated with high morbidity and mortality. Nevertheless, this condition has received little attention in patients on hemodialysis. The objective of this study was to analyze the incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia and its long–term prognostic value. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We designed an observational and prospective study in a cohort of patients on hemodialysis with a 10-year follow-up period. All patients were recruited for study participation and were not recruited for clinical indications. The study population comprised 77 patients (42 men and 35 women; mean age =58±15 years old) with sinus rhythm monitored using a Holter electrocardiogram over six consecutive hemodialysis sessions at recruitment. Results Hypertension was present in 68.8% of patients, and diabetes was present in 29.9% of patients. Supraventricular arrhythmias were recorded in 38 patients (49.3%); all of these were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting. Age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08) and right atrial enlargement (hazard ratio, 4.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.30 to 14.09) were associated with supraventricular arrhythmia in the multivariate analysis. During a median follow-up of 40 months, 57 patients died, and cardiovascular disease was the main cause of death (52.6%). The variables associated with all-cause mortality in the Cox model were age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), C-reactive protein (hazard ratio, 1.04 per 1 mg/L; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), and supraventricular arrhythmia (hazard ratio, 3.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.29 to 7.96). Patients with supraventricular arrhythmia also had a higher risk of nonfatal cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 4.32; 95% confidence interval, 2.11 to 8.83) and symptomatic atrial fibrillation during follow-up (hazard ratio, 17.19; 95% confidence interval, 2.03 to 145.15). Conclusions The incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia was high in our hemodialysis study population. Supraventricular arrhythmias were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting, and although silent, these arrhythmias were independently associated with mortality and cardiovascular events. PMID:27697781

Asymptomatic Intradialytic Supraventricular Arrhythmias and Adverse Outcomes in Patients on Hemodialysis.

PubMed

Verde, Eduardo; Pérez de Prado, Armando; López-Gómez, Juan M; Quiroga, Borja; Goicoechea, Marian; García-Prieto, Ana; Torres, Esther; Reque, Javier; Luño, José

2016-12-07

Supraventricular arrhythmias are associated with high morbidity and mortality. Nevertheless, this condition has received little attention in patients on hemodialysis. The objective of this study was to analyze the incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia and its long-term prognostic value. We designed an observational and prospective study in a cohort of patients on hemodialysis with a 10-year follow-up period. All patients were recruited for study participation and were not recruited for clinical indications. The study population comprised 77 patients (42 men and 35 women; mean age =58±15 years old) with sinus rhythm monitored using a Holter electrocardiogram over six consecutive hemodialysis sessions at recruitment. Hypertension was present in 68.8% of patients, and diabetes was present in 29.9% of patients. Supraventricular arrhythmias were recorded in 38 patients (49.3%); all of these were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting. Age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08) and right atrial enlargement (hazard ratio, 4.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.30 to 14.09) were associated with supraventricular arrhythmia in the multivariate analysis. During a median follow-up of 40 months, 57 patients died, and cardiovascular disease was the main cause of death (52.6%). The variables associated with all-cause mortality in the Cox model were age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), C-reactive protein (hazard ratio, 1.04 per 1 mg/L; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), and supraventricular arrhythmia (hazard ratio, 3.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.29 to 7.96). Patients with supraventricular arrhythmia also had a higher risk of nonfatal cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 4.32; 95% confidence interval, 2.11 to 8.83) and symptomatic atrial fibrillation during follow-up (hazard ratio, 17.19; 95% confidence interval, 2.03 to 145.15). The incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia was high in our hemodialysis study population. Supraventricular arrhythmias were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting, and although silent, these arrhythmias were independently associated with mortality and cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Long-term Results of an Obesity Program in an Ethnically Diverse Pediatric Population

PubMed Central

Nowicka, Paulina; Shaw, Melissa; Yu, Sunkyung; Dziura, James; Chavent, Georgia; O'Malley, Grace; Serrecchia, John B.; Tamborlane, William V.; Caprio, Sonia

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine if beneficial effects of a weight-management program could be sustained for up to 24 months in a randomized trial in an ethnically diverse obese population. PATIENTS AND METHODS: There were 209 obese children (BMI > 95th percentile), ages 8 to 16 of mixed ethnic backgrounds randomly assigned to the intensive lifestyle intervention or clinic control group. The control group received counseling every 6 months, and the intervention group received a family-based program, which included exercise, nutrition, and behavior modification. Lifestyle intervention sessions occurred twice weekly for the first 6 months, then twice monthly for the second 6 months; for the last 12 months there was no active intervention. There were 174 children who completed the 12 months of the randomized trial. Follow-up data were available for 76 of these children at 24 months. There were no statistical differences in dropout rates among ethnic groups or in any other aspects. RESULTS: Treatment effect was sustained at 24 months in the intervention versus control group for BMI z score (−0.16 [95% confidence interval: −0.23 to −0.09]), BMI (−2.8 kg/m2 [95% confidence interval: −4.0–1.6 kg/m2]), percent body fat (−4.2% [95% confidence interval: −6.4% to −2.0%]), total body fat mass (−5.8 kg [95% confidence interval: −9.1 kg to −2.6 kg]), total cholesterol (−13.0 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −21.7 mg/dL to −4.2 mg/dL]), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (−10.4 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −18.3 mg/dL to −2.4 mg/dL]), and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (−2.05 [95% confidence interval: −2.48 to −1.75]). CONCLUSIONS: This study, unprecedented because of the high degree of obesity and ethnically diverse backgrounds of children, reveals that benefits of an intensive lifestyle program can be sustained 12 months after completing the active intervention phase. PMID:21300674

Giving Change When Payment Is Made with a Dime: The Difficulty of Tens and Ones

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chandler, Cynthia C.; Kamii, Constance

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate children's construction of 10s out of the 1s they have already constructed. It was found that, for many younger children, a dime was something different from 10 pennies even though they could say with confidence that a dime was worth 10 cents. As the children grew older, their performance improved.…

Willingness to pay for methadone maintenance treatment in Vietnamese epicentres of injection-drug-driven HIV infection.

PubMed

Tran, Bach Xuan

2013-07-01

Willingness to pay for methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) in three Vietnamese epicentres of injection-drug-driven human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection was assessed. A convenience sample of 1016 patients receiving HIV treatment in seven clinics was enrolled during 2012. Contingent valuation was used to assess willingness to pay. Interviewers reviewed adverse consequences of injection drug use and the benefits of MMT. Interviewers then described the government's plan to scale up MMT and the financial barriers to scale-up. Willingness to pay was assessed using double-bounded binary questions and a follow-up open-ended question. Point and interval data models were used to estimate maximum willingness to pay. A total of 548 non-drug-users and 468 injection drug users were enrolled; 988 were willing to pay for MMT. Monthly mean willingness to pay among non-drug-users, 347 drug users not receiving MMT and 121 drug users receiving MMT was 10.7 United States dollars [US$] (35.7% of treatment costs), US$ 21.1 (70.3%) and US$ 26.2 (87.3%), respectively (mean: US$ 15.9; 95% confidence interval, CI: 13.6-18.1). Fifty per cent of drug users were willing to pay 50% of MMT costs. Residence in households with low monthly per capita income and poor health status predicted willingness to pay less among drug users; educational level, employment status, health status and current antiretroviral therapy receipt predicted willingness to pay less among non-drug-users. Willingness to pay for MMT was very high, supporting implementation of a co-payment programme.

Molecular hydrogen absorption systems in Sloan Digital Sky Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balashev, S. A.; Klimenko, V. V.; Ivanchik, A. V.; Varshalovich, D. A.; Petitjean, P.; Noterdaeme, P.

2014-05-01

We present a systematic search for molecular hydrogen absorption systems at high redshift in quasar spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS)-II Data Release 7 and SDSS-III Data Release 9. We have selected candidates using a modified profile fitting technique taking into account that the Lyα forest can effectively mimic H2 absorption systems at the resolution of SDSS data. To estimate the confidence level of the detections, we use two methods: a Monte Carlo sampling and an analysis of control samples. The analysis of control samples allows us to define regions of the spectral quality parameter space where H2 absorption systems can be confidently identified. We find that H2 absorption systems with column densities log NH2 > 19 can be detected in only less than 3 per cent of SDSS quasar spectra. We estimate the upper limit on the detection rate of saturated H2 absorption systems (NH2 > 19) in damped Lyα (DLA) systems to be about 7 per cent. We provide a sample of 23 confident H2 absorption system candidates that would be interesting to follow up with high-resolution spectrographs. There is a 1σ r - i colour excess and non-significant AV extinction excess in quasar spectra with an H2 candidate compared to standard DLA-bearing quasar spectra. The equivalent widths of C II, Si II and Al III (but not Fe II) absorptions associated with H2 candidate DLAs are larger compared to standard DLAs. This is probably related to a larger spread in velocity of the absorption lines in the H2-bearing sample.

Psychosocial and nonclinical factors predicting hospital utilization in patients of a chronic disease management program: a prospective observational study.

PubMed

Tran, Mark W; Weiland, Tracey J; Phillips, Georgina A

2015-01-01

Psychosocial factors such as marital status (odds ratio, 3.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.43-8.69; P = .006) and nonclinical factors such as outpatient nonattendances (odds ratio, 2.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-5.23; P = .013) and referrals made (odds ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.35; P = .003) predict hospital utilization for patients in a chronic disease management program. Along with optimizing patients' clinical condition by prescribed medical guidelines and supporting patient self-management, addressing psychosocial and nonclinical issues are important in attempting to avoid hospital utilization for people with chronic illnesses.

Methods for calculating confidence and credible intervals for the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Meta-regression is becoming increasingly used to model study level covariate effects. However this type of statistical analysis presents many difficulties and challenges. Here two methods for calculating confidence intervals for the magnitude of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models are developed. A further suggestion for calculating credible intervals using informative prior distributions for the residual between-study variance is presented. Methods Two recently proposed and, under the assumptions of the random effects model, exact methods for constructing confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random effects meta-analyses are extended to the meta-regression setting. The use of Generalised Cochran heterogeneity statistics is extended to the meta-regression setting and a Newton-Raphson procedure is developed to implement the Q profile method for meta-analysis and meta-regression. WinBUGS is used to implement informative priors for the residual between-study variance in the context of Bayesian meta-regressions. Results Results are obtained for two contrasting examples, where the first example involves a binary covariate and the second involves a continuous covariate. Intervals for the residual between-study variance are wide for both examples. Conclusions Statistical methods, and R computer software, are available to compute exact confidence intervals for the residual between-study variance under the random effects model for meta-regression. These frequentist methods are almost as easily implemented as their established counterparts for meta-analysis. Bayesian meta-regressions are also easily performed by analysts who are comfortable using WinBUGS. Estimates of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regressions should be routinely reported and accompanied by some measure of their uncertainty. Confidence and/or credible intervals are well-suited to this purpose. PMID:25196829

Confidence Interval Coverage for Cohen's Effect Size Statistic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

2006-01-01

Kelley compared three methods for setting a confidence interval (CI) around Cohen's standardized mean difference statistic: the noncentral-"t"-based, percentile (PERC) bootstrap, and biased-corrected and accelerated (BCA) bootstrap methods under three conditions of nonnormality, eight cases of sample size, and six cases of population…

Persistent opioid use following Cesarean delivery: patterns and predictors among opioid naïve women

PubMed Central

Bateman, Brian T.; Franklin, Jessica M.; Bykov, Katsiaryna; Avorn, Jerry; Shrank, William H.; Brennan, Troyen A.; Landon, Joan E.; Rathmell, James P.; Huybrechts, Krista F.; Fischer, Michael A.; Choudhry, Niteesh K.

2016-01-01

Background The incidence of opioid-related death in women has increased five-fold over the past decade. For many women, their initial opioid exposure will occur in the setting of routine medical care. Approximately 1 in 3 deliveries in the U.S. is by Cesarean and opioids are commonly prescribed for post-surgical pain management. Objective The objective of this study was to determine the risk that opioid naïve women prescribed opioids after Cesarean delivery will subsequently become consistent prescription opioid users in the year following delivery, and to identify predictors for this behavior. Study Design We identified women in a database of commercial insurance beneficiaries who underwent Cesarean delivery and who were opioid-naïve in the year prior to delivery. To identify persistent users of opioids, we used trajectory models, which group together patients with similar patterns of medication filling during follow-up, based on patterns of opioid dispensing in the year following Cesarean delivery. We then constructed a multivariable logistic regression model to identify independent risk factors for membership in the persistent user group. Results 285 of 80,127 (0.36%, 95% confidence interval 0.32 to 0.40), opioid-naïve women became persistent opioid users (identified using trajectory models based on monthly patterns of opioid dispensing) following Cesarean delivery. Demographics and baseline comorbidity predicted such use with moderate discrimination (c statistic = 0.73). Significant predictors included a history of cocaine abuse (risk 7.41%; adjusted odds ratio 6.11, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 36.31) and other illicit substance abuse (2.36%; adjusted odds ratio 2.78, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 6.91), tobacco use (1.45%; adjusted odds ratio 3.04, 95% confidence interval 2.03 to 4.55), back pain (0.69%; adjusted odds ratio 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.33 to 2.29), migraines (0.91%; adjusted odds ratio 2.14, 95% confidence interval 1.58 to 2.90), antidepressant use (1.34%; adjusted odds ratio 3.19, 95% confidence interval 2.41 to 4.23) and benzodiazepine use (1.99%; adjusted odds ratio 3.72, 95% confidence interval 2.64 to 5.26) in the year prior to Cesarean delivery. Conclusions A very small proportion of opioid-naïve women (approximately 1 in 300) become persistent prescription opioid users following Cesarean delivery. Pre-existing psychiatric comorbidity, certain pain conditions, and substance use/abuse conditions identifiable at the time of initial opioid prescribing were predictors of persistent use. PMID:26996986

Emergency department patient satisfaction survey in Imam Reza Hospital, Tabriz, Iran

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Patient satisfaction is an important indicator of the quality of care and service delivery in the emergency department (ED). The objective of this study was to evaluate patient satisfaction with the Emergency Department of Imam Reza Hospital in Tabriz, Iran. Methods This study was carried out for 1 week during all shifts. Trained researchers used the standard Press Ganey questionnaire. Patients were asked to complete the questionnaire prior to discharge. The study questionnaire included 30 questions based on a Likert scale. Descriptive and analytical statistics were used throughout data analysis in a number of ways using SPSS version 13. Results Five hundred patients who attended our ED were included in this study. The highest satisfaction rates were observed in the terms of physicians' communication with patients (82.5%), security guards' courtesy (78.3%) and nurses' communication with patients (78%). The average waiting time for the first visit to a physician was 24 min 15 s. The overall satisfaction rate was dependent on the mean waiting time. The mean waiting time for a low rate of satisfaction was 47 min 11 s with a confidence interval of (19.31, 74.51), and for very good level of satisfaction it was 14 min 57 s with a (10.58, 18.57) confidence interval. Approximately 63% of the patients rated their general satisfaction with the emergency setting as good or very good. On the whole, the patient satisfaction rate at the lowest level was 7.7 with a confidence interval of (5.1, 10.4), and at the low level it was 5.8% with a confidence interval of (3.7, 7.9). The rate of satisfaction for the mediocre level was 23.3 with a confidence interval of (19.1, 27.5); for the high level of satisfaction it was 28.3 with a confidence interval of (22.9, 32.8), and for the very high level of satisfaction, this rate was 32.9% with a confidence interval of (28.4, 37.4). Conclusion The study findings indicated the need for evidence-based interventions in emergency care services in areas such as medical care, nursing care, courtesy of staff, physical comfort and waiting time. Efforts should focus on shortening waiting intervals and improving patients' perceptions about waiting in the ED, and also improving the overall cleanliness of the emergency room. PMID:21407998

Comparison of WBRT alone, SRS alone, and their combination in the treatment of one or more brain metastases: Review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Khan, Muhammad; Lin, Jie; Liao, Guixiang; Li, Rong; Wang, Baiyao; Xie, Guozhu; Zheng, Jieling; Yuan, Yawei

2017-07-01

Whole brain radiotherapy has been a standard treatment of brain metastases. Stereotactic radiosurgery provides more focal and aggressive radiation and normal tissue sparing but worse local and distant control. This meta-analysis was performed to assess and compare the effectiveness of whole brain radiotherapy alone, stereotactic radiosurgery alone, and their combination in the treatment of brain metastases based on randomized controlled trial studies. Electronic databases (PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Library) were searched to identify randomized controlled trial studies that compared treatment outcome of whole brain radiotherapy and stereotactic radiosurgery. This meta-analysis was performed using the Review Manager (RevMan) software (version 5.2) that is provided by the Cochrane Collaboration. The data used were hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals calculated for time-to-event data extracted from survival curves and local tumor control rate curves. Odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for dichotomous data, while mean differences with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for continuous data. Fixed-effects or random-effects models were adopted according to heterogeneity. Five studies (n = 763) were included in this meta-analysis meeting the inclusion criteria. All the included studies were randomized controlled trials. The sample size ranged from 27 to 331. In total 202 (26%) patients with whole brain radiotherapy alone, 196 (26%) patients receiving stereotactic radiosurgery alone, and 365 (48%) patients were in whole brain radiotherapy plus stereotactic radiosurgery group. No significant survival benefit was observed for any treatment approach; hazard ratio was 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 0.96-1.43, p = 0.12) based on three randomized controlled trials for whole brain radiotherapy only compared to whole brain radiotherapy plus stereotactic radiosurgery and hazard ratio was 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.29, p = 0.81) for stereotactic radiosurgery only compared to combined approach. Local control was best achieved when whole brain radiotherapy was combined with stereotactic radiosurgery. Hazard ratio 2.05 (95% confidence interval: 1.36-3.09, p = 0.0006) and hazard ratio 1.84 (95% confidence interval: 1.26-2.70, p = 0.002) were obtained from comparing whole brain radiotherapy only and stereotactic radiosurgery only to whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery, respectively. No difference in adverse events for treatment difference; odds ratio 1.16 (95% confidence interval: 0.77-1.76, p = 0.48) and odds ratio 0.92 (95% confidence interval: 0.59-1.42, p = 71) for whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery versus whole brain radiotherapy only and whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery versus stereotactic radiosurgery only, respectively. Adding stereotactic radiosurgery to whole brain radiotherapy provides better local control as compared to whole brain radiotherapy only and stereotactic radiosurgery only with no difference in radiation related toxicities.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes after bariatric surgery; a systematic review and meta-analysis: do the benefits outweigh the risks?

PubMed

Kwong, Wilson; Tomlinson, George; Feig, Denice S

2018-02-15

Obesity during pregnancy is associated with a number of adverse obstetric outcomes that include gestational diabetes mellitus, macrosomia, and preeclampsia. Increasing evidence shows that bariatric surgery may decrease the risk of these outcomes. Our aim was to evaluate the benefits and risks of bariatric surgery in obese women according to obstetric outcomes. We performed a systematic literature search using MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, Web of Science, and PubMed from inception up to December 12, 2016. Studies were included if they evaluated patients who underwent bariatric surgery, reported subsequent pregnancy outcomes, and compared these outcomes with a control group. Two reviewers extracted study outcomes independently, and risk of bias was assessed with the use of the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. Pooled odds ratios for each outcome were estimated with the Dersimonian and Laird random effects model. After a review of 2616 abstracts, 20 cohort studies and approximately 2.8 million subjects (8364 of whom had bariatric surgery) were included in the metaanalysis. In our primary analysis, patients who underwent bariatric surgery showed reduced rates of gestational diabetes mellitus (odds ratio, 0.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.11-0.37, number needed to benefit, 5), large-for-gestational-age infants (odds ratio, 0.31; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.59; number needed to benefit, 6), gestational hypertension (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.19-0.76; number needed to benefit, 11), all hypertensive disorders (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.27-0.53; number needed to benefit, 8), postpartum hemorrhage (odds ratio, 0.32; 95% confidence interval, 0.08-1.37; number needed to benefit, 21), and caesarean delivery rates (odds ratio, 0.50; 95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.67; number needed to benefit, 9); however, group of patients showed an increase in small-for-gestational-age infants (odds ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-3.48; number needed to harm, 21), intrauterine growth restriction (odds ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-3.48; number needed to harm, 66), and preterm deliveries (odds ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.79; number needed to harm, 35) when compared with control subjects who were matched for presurgery body mass index. There were no differences in rates of preeclampsia, neonatal intensive care unit admissions, stillbirths, malformations, and neonatal death. Malabsorptive surgeries resulted in a greater increase in small-for-gestational-age infants (P=.0466) and a greater decrease in large-for-gestational-age infants (P=<.0001) compared with restrictive surgeries. There were no differences in outcomes when we used administrative databases vs clinical charts. Although bariatric surgery is associated with a reduction in the risk of several adverse obstetric outcomes, there is a potential for an increased risk of other important outcomes that should be considered when bariatric surgery is discussed with reproductive-age women. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

2013-01-01

The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

WASP (Write a Scientific Paper) using Excel - 6: Standard error and confidence interval.

PubMed

Grech, Victor

2018-03-01

The calculation of descriptive statistics includes the calculation of standard error and confidence interval, an inevitable component of data analysis in inferential statistics. This paper provides pointers as to how to do this in Microsoft Excel™. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust Confidence Interval for a Ratio of Standard Deviations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.

2006-01-01

Comparing variability of test scores across alternate forms, test conditions, or subpopulations is a fundamental problem in psychometrics. A confidence interval for a ratio of standard deviations is proposed that performs as well as the classic method with normal distributions and performs dramatically better with nonnormal distributions. A simple…

The microcomputer scientific software series 2: general linear model--regression.

Treesearch

Harold M. Rauscher

1983-01-01

The general linear model regression (GLMR) program provides the microcomputer user with a sophisticated regression analysis capability. The output provides a regression ANOVA table, estimators of the regression model coefficients, their confidence intervals, confidence intervals around the predicted Y-values, residuals for plotting, a check for multicollinearity, a...

Toward Using Confidence Intervals to Compare Correlations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zou, Guang Yong

2007-01-01

Confidence intervals are widely accepted as a preferred way to present study results. They encompass significance tests and provide an estimate of the magnitude of the effect. However, comparisons of correlations still rely heavily on significance testing. The persistence of this practice is caused primarily by the lack of simple yet accurate…

Women seeking treatment for advanced pelvic organ prolapse have decreased body image and quality of life.

PubMed

Jelovsek, J Eric; Barber, Matthew D

2006-05-01

Women who seek treatment for pelvic organ prolapse strive for an improvement in quality of life. Body image has been shown to be an important component of differences in quality of life. To date, there are no data on body image in patients with advanced pelvic organ prolapse. Our objective was to compare body image and quality of life in women with advanced pelvic organ prolapse with normal controls. We used a case-control study design. Cases were defined as subjects who presented to a tertiary urogynecology clinic with advanced pelvic organ prolapse (stage 3 or 4). Controls were defined as subjects who presented to a tertiary care gynecology or women's health clinic for an annual visit with normal pelvic floor support (stage 0 or 1) and without urinary incontinence. All patients completed a valid and reliable body image scale and a generalized (Short Form Health Survey) and condition-specific (Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20) quality-of-life scale. Linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to adjust for possible confounding variables. Forty-seven case and 51 control subjects were enrolled. After controlling for age, race, parity, previous hysterectomy, and medical comorbidities, subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse were more likely to feel self-conscious (adjusted odds ratio 4.7; 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 18, P = .02), less likely to feel physically attractive (adjusted odds ratio 11; 95% confidence interval 2.9 to 51, P < .001), less likely to feel feminine (adjusted odds ratio 4.0; 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 15, P = .03), and less likely to feel sexually attractive (adjusted odds ratio 4.6; 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 17, P = .02) than normal controls. The groups were similar in their feeling of dissatisfaction with appearance when dressed, difficulty looking at themselves naked, avoiding people because of appearance, and overall dissatisfaction with their body. Subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse suffered significantly lower quality of life on the physical scale of the SF-12 (mean 42; 95% confidence interval 39 to 45 versus mean 50; 95% confidence interval 47 to 53, P < .009). However, no differences between groups were noted on the mental scale of the SF-12 (mean 51; 95% confidence interval 50 to 54 versus mean 50; 95% confidence interval 47 to 52, P = .56). Additionally, subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse scored significantly worse on the prolapse, urinary, and colorectal scales and overall summary score of Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20 than normal controls (mean summary score 104; 95% confidence interval 90 to 118 versus mean 29; 95% confidence interval 16 to 43, P < .0001), indicating a decrease in condition-specific quality of life. Worsening body image correlated with lower quality of life on both the physical and mental scales of the SF-12 as well as the prolapse, urinary, and colorectal scales and overall summary score of Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20 in subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse. Women seeking treatment for advanced pelvic organ prolapse have decreased body image and overall quality of life. Body image may be a key determinant for quality of life in patients with advanced prolapse and may be an important outcome measure for treatment evaluation in clinical trials.

Exercise during pregnancy in normal-weight women and risk of preterm birth: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Di Mascio, Daniele; Magro-Malosso, Elena Rita; Saccone, Gabriele; Marhefka, Gregary D; Berghella, Vincenzo

2016-11-01

Preterm birth is the major cause of perinatal mortality in the United States. In the past, pregnant women have been recommended to not exercise because of presumed risks of preterm birth. Physical activity has been theoretically related to preterm birth because it increases the release of catecholamines, especially norepinephrine, which might stimulate myometrial activity. Conversely, exercise may reduce the risk of preterm birth by other mechanisms such as decreased oxidative stress or improved placenta vascularization. Therefore, the safety of exercise regarding preterm birth and its effects on gestational age at delivery remain controversial. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effects of exercise during pregnancy on the risk of preterm birth. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Sciences, Scopus, ClinicalTrial.gov, OVID, and Cochrane Library were searched from the inception of each database to April 2016. Selection criteria included only randomized clinical trials of pregnant women randomized before 23 weeks to an aerobic exercise regimen or not. Types of participants included women of normal weight with uncomplicated, singleton pregnancies without any obstetric contraindication to physical activity. The summary measures were reported as relative risk or as mean difference with 95% confidence intervals. The primary outcome was the incidence of preterm birth <37 weeks. Of the 2059 women included in the meta-analysis, 1022 (49.6%) were randomized to the exercise group and 1037 (50.4%) to the control group. Aerobic exercise lasted about 35-90 minutes 3-4 times per week. Women who were randomized to aerobic exercise had a similar incidence of preterm birth of <37 weeks (4.5% vs 4.4%; relative risk, 1.01, 95% confidence interval, 0.68-1.50) and a similar mean gestational age at delivery (mean difference, 0.05 week, 95% confidence interval, -0.07 to 0.17) compared with controls. Women in the exercise group had a significantly higher incidence of vaginal delivery (73.6% vs 67.5%; relative risk, 1.09, 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.15) and a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery (17.9% vs 22%; relative risk, 0.82, 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.97) compared with controls. The incidence of operative vaginal delivery (12.9% vs 16.5%; relative risk, 0.78, 95% confidence interval, 0.61-1.01) was similar in both groups. Women in the exercise group had a significantly lower incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus (2.9% vs 5.6%; relative risk, 0.51, 95% confidence interval, 0.31-0.82) and a significantly lower incidence of hypertensive disorders (1.0% vs 5.6%; relative risk, 0.21, 95% confidence interval, 0.09-0.45) compared with controls. No differences in low birthweight (5.2% vs 4.7%; relative risk, 1.11, 95% confidence interval, 0.72-1.73) and mean birthweight (mean difference, -10.46 g, 95% confidence interval, -47.10 to 26.21) between the exercise group and controls were found. Aerobic exercise for 35-90 minutes 3-4 times per week during pregnancy can be safely performed by normal-weight women with singleton, uncomplicated gestations because this is not associated with an increased risk of preterm birth or with a reduction in mean gestational age at delivery. Exercise was associated with a significantly higher incidence of vaginal delivery and a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery, with a significantly lower incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus and hypertensive disorders and therefore should be encouraged. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Influence of national centralization of oesophagogastric cancer on management and clinical outcome from emergency upper gastrointestinal conditions.

PubMed

Markar, S R; Mackenzie, H; Wiggins, T; Askari, A; Karthikesalingam, A; Faiz, O; Griffin, S M; Birkmeyer, J D; Hanna, G B

2018-01-01

In England in 2001 oesophagogastric cancer surgery was centralized. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether centralization of oesophagogastric cancer to high-volume centres has had an effect on mortality from different emergency upper gastrointestinal conditions. The Hospital Episode Statistics database was used to identify patients admitted to hospitals in England (1997-2012). The influence of oesophagogastric high-volume cancer centre status (20 or more resections per year) on 30- and 90-day mortality from oesophageal perforation, paraoesophageal hernia and perforated peptic ulcer was analysed. Over the study interval, 3707, 12 441 and 56 822 patients with oesophageal perforation, paraoesophageal hernia and perforated peptic ulcer respectively were included. There was a passive centralization to high-volume cancer centres for oesophageal perforation (26·9 per cent increase), paraoesophageal hernia (19·5 per cent increase) and perforated peptic ulcer (23·0 per cent increase). Management of oesophageal perforation in high-volume centres was associated with a reduction in 30-day (HR 0·58, 95 per cent c.i. 0·45 to 0·74) and 90-day (HR 0·62, 0·49 to 0·77) mortality. High-volume cancer centre status did not affect mortality from paraoesophageal hernia or perforated peptic ulcer. Annual emergency admission volume thresholds at which mortality improved were observed for oesophageal perforation (5 patients) and paraoesophageal hernia (11). Following centralization, the proportion of patients managed in high-volume cancer centres that reached this volume threshold was 88·0 per cent for oesophageal perforation, but only 30·3 per cent for paraoesophageal hernia. Centralization of low incidence conditions such as oesophageal perforation to high-volume cancer centres provides a greater level of expertise and ultimately reduces mortality. © 2017 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Selecting patients during the "learning curve" of endoscopic Totally Extraperitoneal (TEP) hernia repair.

PubMed

Schouten, N; Elshof, J W M; Simmermacher, R K J; van Dalen, T; de Meer, S G A; Clevers, G J; Davids, P H P; Verleisdonk, E J M M; Westers, P; Burgmans, J P J

2013-12-01

Totally Extraperitoneal (TEP) hernia surgery is associated with little postoperative pain and a fast recovery, but is a technically demanding operative procedure. Apart from the surgeon's expertise, patient characteristics and hernia-related variations may also affect the operative time and outcome. Patient-related factors predictive of perioperative complications, conversion to open anterior repair, and operative time were studied in a cohort of consecutive patients undergoing TEP hernia repair from 2005 to 2009. A total of 3,432 patients underwent TEP. The mean operative time was 26 min (SD ± 10.9), TEP was converted into an open anterior approach in 26 patients (0.8 %), and perioperative complications were observed in 55 (1.6 %) patients. Multivariable regression analysis showed that a history of abdominal surgery (OR 1.76, 95 per cent confidence interval 1.01-3.06; p = 0.05), and the presence of a scrotal (OR 5.31, 1.20-23.43; p = 0.03) or bilateral hernia (OR 2.25, 1.25-4.06; p = 0.01) were independent predictive factors of perioperative complications. Female gender (OR 5.30. 1.52-18.45; p = 0.01), a history of abdominal surgery (OR 3.96, 1.72- 9.12; p = 0.001), and the presence of a scrotal hernia (OR 34.84, 10.42-116.51, p < 0.001) were predictive factors for conversion. A BMI ≥ 25 (effect size (ES) 1.78, 95 % confidence interval 1.09-2.47; p < 0.001) and the presence of a scrotal (ES 5.81, 1.93-9.68; p = 0.003), indirect (ES 2.78, 2.05- 3.50, p < 0.001) or bilateral hernia (ES 10.19, 9.20-11.08; p < 0.001) were associated with a longer operative time. Certain patient characteristics are, even in experienced TEP surgeons, associated with an increased risk of conversion and complications and a longer operative time. For the surgeon gaining experience with TEP, it seems advisable to select relatively young and slender male patients with a unilateral (non-scrotal) hernia and no previous abdominal surgery to enhance patient safety and 'surgeon comfort'.

[Ender nailing in fractures of the proximal femur. II. Analysis of our cohort].

PubMed

Bartonícek, J

1989-12-01

The work presents the analysis of the group of 172 patients with the fracture of the proximal femur treated by the technique of Ender nailing between June 1985 and December 1988. The group comprised 45 male (26 per cent) and 127 female (74 per cent) patients. Their average age was 76 years (ranging from 20 to 97 years of age) out of which 75 per cent of patients were older than 70 years and 40 per cent older than 80 years. Indication of Ender nailing in patients under 60 years of age we consider exceptional. In our group we operated on in total 14 patients under 60 years of age (ranging from 20 to 57 years of age) and namely in case of the comminuted type of fracture increased risk of infection or serious total condition. The whole group was operated on by 21 variously experienced surgeons. 147 operations were performed in the general anesthesia and 25 in the epidural one. The fractures of the proximal femur were divided into basicervical--10 (6 per cent), stable pertrochanteric 96 (56 per cent), unstable pertrochanteric--38 (22 per cent), per-subtrochanteric--19 (11 per cent) and subtrochanteric--9 (5 per cent). For the objective evaluation we compared our classification of the fracture of the trochanteric part with these of Evens, Kyle and Jensen. For stable fractures we considered the types I and II according to Kyle, for unstable the type III of Kyle classification. Per-subtrochanteric fractures (Kyle IV) we singled out for their seriousness as a separate group of unstable pertrochanteric fractures. Almost the same spectrum of fractures was in the group of 108 patients in which we evaluated longterm results. The minimum observence period was 3 months the mean period 6.3 months. Almost all patients from this group were followed up until complete healing. The mean duration of operation was 52 minutes, the mean duration of anesthesia was 81 minutes and the duration of X-ray exposure was 2.6 minutes. These data were calculated also for individual types of fractures. In this case the time intervals differed according to the seriousness of the fracture. The comparison of our time data with other authors reliably evaluating the results of Ender nailing has proved that it is necessary to free this intervention from the myth of a quick and easy operation. The average number of nails inserted in one patient was 3.6.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

A simple method for assessing occupational exposure via the one-way random effects model.

PubMed

Krishnamoorthy, K; Mathew, Thomas; Peng, Jie

2016-11-01

A one-way random effects model is postulated for the log-transformed shift-long personal exposure measurements, where the random effect in the model represents an effect due to the worker. Simple closed-form confidence intervals are proposed for the relevant parameters of interest using the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER). The performance of the confidence bounds is evaluated and compared with those based on the generalized confidence interval approach. Comparison studies indicate that the proposed MOVER confidence bounds are better than the generalized confidence bounds for the overall mean exposure and an upper percentile of the exposure distribution. The proposed methods are illustrated using a few examples involving industrial hygiene data.

Vitamin A for the treatment of children with measles--a systematic review.

PubMed

D'Souza, Rennie M; D'Souza, Ron

2002-12-01

Vitamin A deficiency is a recognized risk factor for severe measles. WHO and UNICEF have recommended vitamin A for the treatment of measles but there are children still dying from measles. A systematic review, including the use of meta-analysis was done of randomized controlled trials comparing vitamin A with placebo obtained from a systematic search of the medical literature to determine whether vitamin A prevents mortality and pneumonia-specific mortality in children with measles. We identified five trials conducted in Africa, four in hospitals and one in a community that met the inclusion criteria. There were 445 children aged 6 months to 13 years supplemented with vitamin A and 478 with placebo. There was a 39 per cent reduction in overall mortality when vitamin A was used for the treatment of measles but this was not statistically significant (relative risk 0.61; 95 per cent confidence interval 0.32-1.12). When stratified by dose, 200 000 IU of vitamin A given for 2 days was associated with a reduction in overall mortality (0.36, 0.14-0.82) and pneumonia-specific mortality (0.33, 0.08-0.92) in hospitalized children in areas with high case fatality. Greater reduction in mortality was observed in children under the age of 2 years (0.17, 0.03-0.61). On the other hand, a single dose of 200 000 IU of vitamin A was not associated with reduced mortality (1.25, 0.48-3.1). There were no trials comparing a single dose with two doses of vitamin A. There were not enough studies to separate out the individual effects of age, dose, formulation, hospitalization and case fatality in the study area. We conclude that 200 000 IU of vitamin A repeated on 2 days should be used for the treatment of measles as recommended by WHO in children admitted to hospitals in areas where the case fatality is high.

Cost of delivering secondary-level health care services through public sector district hospitals in India

PubMed Central

Prinja, Shankar; Balasubramanian, Deepak; Jeet, Gursimer; Verma, Ramesh; Kumar, Dinesh; Bahuguna, Pankaj; Kaur, Manmeet; Kumar, Rajesh

2017-01-01

Background & objectives: Despite an impetus for strengthening public sector district hospitals for provision of secondary health care in India, there is lack of robust evidence on cost of services provided through these district hospitals. In this study, an attempt was made to determine the unit cost of an outpatient visit consultation, inpatient bed-day of hospitalization, surgical procedure and overall per-capita cost of providing secondary care through district hospitals. Methods: Economic costing of five randomly selected district hospitals in two north Indian States - Haryana and Punjab, was undertaken. Cost analysis was done using a health system perspective and employing bottom-up costing methodology. Quantity of all resources - capital or recurrent, used for delivering services was measured and valued. Median unit costs were estimated along with their 95 per cent confidence intervals. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken to assess the effect of uncertainties in prices and other assumptions; and to generalize the findings for Indian set-up. Results: The overall annual cost of delivering secondary-level health care services through a public sector district hospital in north India was 11,44,13,282 [US Dollars (USD) 2,103,185]. Human resources accounted for 53 per cent of the overall cost. The unit cost of an inpatient bed-day, surgical procedure and outpatient consultation was 844 (USD 15.5), i; 3481 (USD 64) and 170 (USD 3.1), respectively. With the current set of resource allocation, per-capita cost of providing health care through district hospitals in north India was 139 (USD 2.5). Interpretation & conclusions: The estimates obtained in our study can be used for Fiscal planning of scaling up secondary-level health services. Further, these may be particularly useful for future research such as benefit-incidence analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis and national health accounts including disease-specific accounts in India. PMID:29355142

Racism, ethnic density and psychological well-being through adolescence: evidence from the Determinants of Adolescent Social Well-Being and Health longitudinal study.

PubMed

Astell-Burt, Thomas; Maynard, Maria J; Lenguerrand, Erik; Harding, Seeromanie

2012-01-01

To investigate the effect of racism, own-group ethnic density, diversity and deprivation on adolescent trajectories in psychological well-being. Multilevel models were used in longitudinal analysis of psychological well-being (total difficulties score (TDS) from Goodman's Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, higher scores correspond to greater difficulties) for 4782 adolescents aged 11-16 years in 51 London (U.K.) schools. Individual level variables included ethnicity, racism, gender, age, migrant generation, socio-economic circumstances, family type and indicators of family interactions (shared activities, perceived parenting). Contextual variables were per cent eligible for free school-meals, neighbourhood deprivation, per cent own-group ethnic density, and ethnic diversity. Ethnic minorities were more likely to report racism than whites. Ethnic minority boys (except Indian boys) and Indian girls reported better psychological well-being throughout adolescence compared to their white peers. Notably, lowest mean TDS scores were observed for Nigerian/Ghanaian boys, among whom the reporting of racism increased with age. Adjusted for individual characteristics, psychological well-being improved with age across all ethnic groups. Racism was associated with poorer psychological well-being trajectories for all ethnic groups (p<0.001), reducing with age. For example, mean difference in TDS (95% confidence interval) between boys who experienced racism and those who did not at age 12 years=1.88 (+1.75 to +2.01); at 16 years = +1.19 (+1.07 to +1.31). Less racism was generally reported in schools and neighbourhoods with high than low own-group density. Own ethnic density and diversity were not consistently associated with TDS for any ethnic group. Living in more deprived neighbourhoods was associated with poorer psychological well-being for whites and black Caribbeans (p<0.05). Racism, but not ethnic density and deprivation in schools or neighbourhoods, was an important influence on psychological well-being. However, exposure to racism did not explain the advantage in psychological well-being of ethnic minority groups over whites.

Asymptomatic bacteriuria & obstetric outcome following treatment in early versus late pregnancy in north Indian women.

PubMed

Jain, Vaishali; Das, Vinita; Agarwal, Anjoo; Pandey, Amita

2013-04-01

Asymptomatic bacteriuria during pregnancy if left untreated, may lead to acute pyelonephritis, preterm labour, low birth weight foetus, etc. Adequate and early treatment reduces the incidence of these obstetric complications. The present study was done to determine presence of asymptomatic bacteriuria (ASB) and obstetric outcome following treatment in early versus late pregnancy. A prospective cohort study was conducted at a tertiary care teaching hospital of north India. Pregnant women till 20 wk (n=371) and between 32 to 34 wk gestation (n=274) having no urinary complaints were included. Their mid stream urine sample was sent for culture and sensitivity. Women having > 10 [5] colony forming units/ml of single organism were diagnosed positive for ASB and treated. They were followed till delivery for obstetric outcome. Relative risk with 95% confidence interval was used to describe association between ASB and outcome of interest. ASB was found in 17 per cent pregnant women till 20 wk and in 16 per cent between 32 to 34 wk gestation. Increased incidence of preeclamptic toxaemia (PET) [RR 3.79, 95% CI 1.80-7.97], preterm premature rupture of membrane (PPROM)[RR 3.63, 45% CI 1.63-8.07], preterm labour (PTL) [RR 3.27, 95% CI 1.38-7.72], intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR)[RR 3.79, 95% CI 1.80-79], low birth weight (LBW) [RR1.37, 95% CI 0.71-2.61] was seen in late detected women (32-34 wk) as compared to ASB negative women, whereas no significant difference was seen in early detected women (till 20 wk) as compared to ASB negative women. Early detection and treatment of ASB during pregnancy prevents complications like PET, IUGR, PTL, PPROM and LBW. Therefore, screening and treatment of ASB may be incorporated as routine antenatal care for safe motherhood and healthy newborn.

Asymptomatic bacteriuria & obstetric outcome following treatment in early versus late pregnancy in north Indian women

PubMed Central

Jain, Vaishali; Das, Vinita; Agarwal, Anjoo; Pandey, Amita

2013-01-01

Background & objectives: Asymptomatic bacteriuria during pregnancy if left untreated, may lead to acute pyelonephritis, preterm labour, low birth weight foetus, etc. Adequate and early treatment reduces the incidence of these obstetric complications. The present study was done to determine presence of asymptomatic bacteriuria (ASB) and obstetric outcome following treatment in early versus late pregnancy. Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted at a tertiary care teaching hospital of north India. Pregnant women till 20 wk (n=371) and between 32 to 34 wk gestation (n=274) having no urinary complaints were included. Their mid stream urine sample was sent for culture and sensitivity. Women having > 105 colony forming units/ml of single organism were diagnosed positive for ASB and treated. They were followed till delivery for obstetric outcome. Relative risk with 95% confidence interval was used to describe association between ASB and outcome of interest. Results: ASB was found in 17 per cent pregnant women till 20 wk and in 16 per cent between 32 to 34 wk gestation. Increased incidence of preeclamptic toxaemia (PET) [RR 3.79, 95% CI 1.80-7.97], preterm premature rupture of membrane (PPROM)[RR 3.63, 45% CI 1.63-8.07], preterm labour (PTL) [RR 3.27, 95% CI 1.38-7.72], intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR)[RR 3.79, 95% CI 1.80-79], low birth weight (LBW) [RR1.37, 95% CI 0.71-2.61] was seen in late detected women (32-34 wk) as compared to ASB negative women, whereas no significant difference was seen in early detected women (till 20 wk) as compared to ASB negative women. Interpretation & conclusions: Early detection and treatment of ASB during pregnancy prevents complications like PET, IUGR, PTL, PPROM and LBW. Therefore, screening and treatment of ASB may be incorporated as routine antenatal care for safe motherhood and healthy newborn. PMID:23703344

Moderate alcohol consumption is associated with increased radiological progression in women, but not in men, with early rheumatoid arthritis: results from the ESPOIR cohort (Étude et Suivi des Polyarthrites Indifférenciées Récentes).

PubMed

Sageloli, F; Quesada, J L; Fautrel, B; Salliot, C; Gaudin, P; Baillet, A

2018-05-18

We conducted this study to determine whether alcohol consumption influences radiological progression in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Patients fulfilling the European League Against Rheumatism/American College of Rheumatology 2010 criteria in the early arthritis cohort ESPOIR (Étude et Suivi des Polyarthrites Indifférenciées Récentes) were included in this study. Alcohol consumption was collected at baseline and at each visit. We classified alcohol consumption into three groups: abstinent (0 g/day), moderate (≤ 20 g/day for women, ≤ 30 g/day for men), and abuse (> 20 g/day for women, > 30 g/day for men). The primary outcome was the occurrence of radiological progression, defined as an increase ≥ 5 points in the total Sharp/van der Heijde score. We investigated whether alcohol consumption is predictive of radiological progression at 1, 3, and 5 years by univariate and multivariate analysis adjusted for age, baseline erosion, rheumatoid factor, anti-citrullinated peptide antibody, smoking status, body mass index, and treatment with leflunomide or methotrexate and biologics. The study included 596 patients. When considering the influence of gender on the interaction between alcohol consumption and radiological progression, we showed a deleterious effect of moderate consumption in women [odds ratio (OR) = 1.73, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01; 2.96, p = 0.045] and a trend towards a protective effect of moderate consumption in men (OR = 0.50, 95% CI 0.21; 1.16, p = 0.106) in multivariate analysis. Our data suggest a deleterious effect of moderate consumption of alcohol on radiological progression in women, but not in men, with early RA.

Multicentre analysis of long-term outcome after surgical resection for gastric cancer liver metastases.

PubMed

Kinoshita, T; Kinoshita, T; Saiura, A; Esaki, M; Sakamoto, H; Yamanaka, T

2015-01-01

The efficacy of surgical resection for gastric cancer liver metastases (GCLMs) is currently debated. Hitherto, no large-scale clinical studies have been conducted. This retrospective multicentre study analysed a database of consecutive patients with either synchronous or metachronous metastases who underwent surgical R0 resection for GCLM between 1990 and 2010. Clinical data were collected from five cancer centres in Japan. Survival curves were assessed, and clinical parameters were evaluated to identify predictors of prognosis. A total of 256 patients were enrolled. The mean(s.d.) number of hepatic tumours resected was 2.0(2.4). The surgical mortality rate was 1.6 per cent. Median follow-up was 65 (range 1-261) months. Recurrences were detected in 192 patients (75.0 per cent). The median interval from hepatic resection to recurrence was 7 (range 1-72) months, and the dominant site of recurrence was the liver (72.4 per cent). Actuarial 1-, 3- and 5-year overall and recurrence-free survival rates were 77.3, 41.9 and 31.1 per cent, and 43.6, 32.4 and 30.1 per cent, respectively. Median overall and recurrence-free survival times were 31.1 and 9.4 months respectively. Multivariable analysis identified serosal invasion of the primary gastric cancer (hazard ratio (HR) 1.50; P = 0.012), three or more liver metastases (HR 2.33; P < 0.001) and liver tumour diameter at least 5 cm (HR 1.62; P = 0.005) as independent predictors of poor survival. Clinically resectable GCLM is rare, but strict and careful patient selection can lead to long-term survival following R0 surgical resection. © 2014 BJS Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Simulation data for an estimation of the maximum theoretical value and confidence interval for the correlation coefficient.

PubMed

Rocco, Paolo; Cilurzo, Francesco; Minghetti, Paola; Vistoli, Giulio; Pedretti, Alessandro

2017-10-01

The data presented in this article are related to the article titled "Molecular Dynamics as a tool for in silico screening of skin permeability" (Rocco et al., 2017) [1]. Knowledge of the confidence interval and maximum theoretical value of the correlation coefficient r can prove useful to estimate the reliability of developed predictive models, in particular when there is great variability in compiled experimental datasets. In this Data in Brief article, data from purposely designed numerical simulations are presented to show how much the maximum r value is worsened by increasing the data uncertainty. The corresponding confidence interval of r is determined by using the Fisher r → Z transform.

Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagler, Amy E.

2014-01-01

Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals in Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oort, Frans J.

2011-01-01

In exploratory or unrestricted factor analysis, all factor loadings are free to be estimated. In oblique solutions, the correlations between common factors are free to be estimated as well. The purpose of this article is to show how likelihood-based confidence intervals can be obtained for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations, by…

Characterizing the Mathematics Anxiety Literature Using Confidence Intervals as a Literature Review Mechanism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Yetkiner, Z. Ebrar; Thompson, Bruce

2010-01-01

The authors report the contextualization of effect sizes within mathematics anxiety research, and more specifically within research using the Mathematics Anxiety Rating Scale (MARS) and the MARS for Adolescents (MARS-A). The effect sizes from 45 studies were characterized by graphing confidence intervals (CIs) across studies involving (a) adults…

Statistical inference for remote sensing-based estimates of net deforestation

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Brian F. Walters

2012-01-01

Statistical inference requires expression of an estimate in probabilistic terms, usually in the form of a confidence interval. An approach to constructing confidence intervals for remote sensing-based estimates of net deforestation is illustrated. The approach is based on post-classification methods using two independent forest/non-forest classifications because...

Estimating Standardized Linear Contrasts of Means with Desired Precision

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.

2009-01-01

L. Wilkinson and the Task Force on Statistical Inference (1999) recommended reporting confidence intervals for measures of effect sizes. If the sample size is too small, the confidence interval may be too wide to provide meaningful information. Recently, K. Kelley and J. R. Rausch (2006) used an iterative approach to computer-generate tables of…

UNDERSTANDING SYSTEMATIC MEASUREMENT ERROR IN THERMAL-OPTICAL ANALYSIS FOR PM BLACK CARBON USING RESPONSE SURFACES AND SURFACE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

EPA Science Inventory

Results from a NIST-EPA Interagency Agreement on Understanding Systematic Measurement Error in Thermal-Optical Analysis for PM Black Carbon Using Response Surfaces and Surface Confidence Intervals will be presented at the American Association for Aerosol Research (AAAR) 24th Annu...

The impact of effort-reward imbalance on quality of life among Japanese working men.

PubMed

Watanabe, Mayumi; Tanaka, Katsutoshi; Aratake, Yutaka; Kato, Noritada; Sakata, Yumi

2008-07-01

Health-related quality of life (HRQL) is an important measure of health outcome in working and healthy populations. Here, we investigated the impact of effort-reward imbalance (ERI), a representative work-stress model, on HRQL of Japanese working men. The study targeted 1,096 employees from a manufacturing plant in Japan. To assess HRQL and ERI, participants were surveyed using the Japanese version of the Short-Form 8 Health Survey (SF-8) and effort-reward imbalance model. Of the 1,096 employees, 1,057 provided valid responses to the questionnaire. For physical summary scores, the adjusted effort-reward imbalance odds ratios of middle vs. bottom and top vs. bottom tertiles were 0.24 (95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.70) and 0.09 (95% confidence interval, 0.03-0.28), respectively. For mental summary scores, ratios were 0.21 (95% confidence interval, 0.07-0.63) and 0.07 (95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.25), respectively. These findings demonstrate that effort-reward imbalance is independently associated with HRQL among Japanese employees.

Sex hormones and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: A 9-year follow up among elderly men in Finland.

PubMed

Salminen, Marika; Vahlberg, Tero; Räihä, Ismo; Niskanen, Leo; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa; Irjala, Kerttu

2015-05-01

To analyze whether sex hormone levels predict the incidence of type2 diabetes among elderly Finnish men. This was a prospective population-based study, with a 9-year follow up period. The study population in the municipality of Lieto, Finland, consisted of elderly (age ≥64 years) men free of type 2 diabetes at baseline in 1998-1999 (n = 430). Body mass index and cardiovascular disease-adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals for type 2 diabetes predicted by testosterone, free testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin, luteinizing hormone, and testosterone/luteinizing hormone were estimated. A total of 30 new cases of type 2 diabetes developed during the follow-up period. After adjustment, only higher levels of testosterone (hazard ratio for one-unit increase 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.87-0.99, P = 0.020) and free testosterone (hazard ratio for 10-unit increase 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.91-1.00, P = 0.044) were associated with a lower risk of incident type 2 diabetes during the follow up. These associations (0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.87-1.00, P = 0.050 and 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.90-1.00, P = 0.035, respectively) persisted even after additional adjustment of sex hormone-binding globulin. Higher levels of testosterone and free testosterone independently predicted a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes in the elderly men. © 2014 Japan Geriatrics Society.

N-acetyltransferase 2 gene polymorphism as a biomarker for susceptibility to bladder cancer in Bangladeshi population.

PubMed

Hosen, Md Bayejid; Islam, Jahidul; Salam, Md Abdus; Islam, Md Fakhrul; Hawlader, M Zakir Hossain; Kabir, Yearul

2015-03-01

To investigate the association between the three most common single nucleotide polymorphisms of the N-acetyltransferase 2 gene together with cigarette smoking and the risk of developing bladder cancer and its aggressiveness. A case-control study on 102 bladder cancer patients and 140 control subjects was conducted. The genomic DNA was extracted from peripheral white blood cells and N-acetyltransferase 2 alleles were differentiated by polymerase chain reaction-based restriction fragment length polymorphism methods. Bladder cancer risk was estimated as odds ratio and 95% confidence interval using binary logistic regression models adjusting for age and gender. Overall, N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotypes were associated with bladder cancer risk (odds ratio=4.45; 95% confidence interval=2.26-8.77). The cigarette smokers with slow genotypes were found to have a sixfold increased risk to develop bladder cancer (odds ratio=6.05; 95% confidence interval=2.23-15.82). Patients with slow acetylating genotypes were more prone to develop high-grade (odds ratio=6.63; 95% confidence interval=1.15-38.13; P<0.05) and invasive (odds ratio=10.6; 95% confidence interval=1.00-111.5; P=0.05) tumor. N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotype together with tobacco smoking increases bladder cancer risk. Patients with N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotypes were more likely to develop a high-grade and invasive tumor. N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotype is an important genetic determinant for bladder cancer in Bangladesh population. © 2014 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors and fracture risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ruanpeng, Darin; Ungprasert, Patompong; Sangtian, Jutarat; Harindhanavudhi, Tasma

2017-09-01

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors could potentially alter calcium and phosphate homeostasis and may increase the risk of bone fracture. The current meta-analysis was conducted to investigate the fracture risk among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with SGLT2 inhibitors. Randomized controlled trials that compared the efficacy of SGLT2 inhibitors to placebo were identified. The risk ratios of fracture among patients who received SGLT2 inhibitors versus placebo were extracted from each study. Pooled risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using a random-effect, Mantel-Haenszel analysis. A total of 20 studies with 8286 patients treated with SGLT2 inhibitors were included. The pooled risk ratio of bone fracture in patients receiving SGLT2 inhibitors versus placebo was 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.42-1.07). The pooled risk ratio for canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, and empagliflozin was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, 0.37-1.19), 0.84 (95% confidence interval, 0.22-3.18), and 0.57 (95% confidence interval, 0.20-1.59), respectively. Increased risk of bone fracture among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with SGLT2 inhibitors compared with placebo was not observed in this meta-analysis. However, the results were limited by short duration of treatment/follow-up and low incidence of the event of interest. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Influence of gender role attitudes on smoking and drinking among girls from Jujuy, Argentina.

PubMed

Mejia, Raul; Kaplan, Celia P; Alderete, Ethel; Gregorich, Steven E; Pérez-Stable, Eliseo J

2013-09-01

Evaluate effect of gender role attitudes on tobacco and alcohol use among Argentinean girls. Cross-sectional survey of 10th grade students attending 27 randomly selected schools in Jujuy, Argentina. Questions about tobacco and alcohol use were adapted from global youth surveys. Five items with 5-point response options of agreement-disagreement assessed attitude towards egalitarian (higher score) gender roles. 2133 girls, aged 13-18 years, 71% Indigenous, 22% mixed Indigenous/European, and 7% European responded. Of these, 60% had ever smoked, 32% were current smokers, 58% ever drinkers, 27% drank in previous month, and 13% had ≥5 drinks on one occasion. Mean response to the gender role scale was 3.49 (95% Confidence Intervals = 3.41-3.57) out of 5 tending toward egalitarian attitudes. Logistic regression models using the gender role scale score as the main predictor and adjusting for demographic and social confounders showed that egalitarian gender role was associated with ever smoking (Odds Ratio = 1.25; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.09-1.44), ever drinking (Odds Ratio = 1.24; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.10-1.40), drinking in prior month (Odds Ratio = 1.21; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.07-1.37) and ≥5 drinks on one occasion (Odds Ratio = 1.15; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.00-1.33), but was not significant for current smoking. Girls in Jujuy who reported more egalitarian gender role attitudes had higher odds of smoking or drinking. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hostility and the risk of peptic ulcer in the GAZEL cohort.

PubMed

Lemogne, Cédric; Schuster, Jean-Pierre; Levenstein, Susan; Melchior, Maria; Nabi, Hermann; Ducimetière, Pierre; Limosin, Frédéric; Goldberg, Marcel; Zins, Marie; Consoli, Silla M

2015-02-01

Evidence for an association between hostility and peptic ulcer mainly relies on cross-sectional studies. Prospective studies are rare and have not used a validated measure of hostility. This prospective study aimed to examine the association between hostility and peptic ulcer in the large-scale French GAZEL cohort. In 1993, 14,674 participants completed the Buss and Durkee Hostility Inventory. Participants were annually followed-up from 1994 to 2011. Diagnosis of peptic ulcer was self-reported. The association between hostility scores and ulcer incidence was measured by hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals computed through Cox regression. Among 13,539 participants free of peptic ulcer history at baseline, 816 reported a peptic ulcer during a mean follow-up of 16.8 years. Adjusting for potential confounders, including smoking, occupational grade, and a proxy for nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug exposure, ulcer incidence was positively associated with total hostility (HR per SD: 1.23, confidence interval: 1.14-1.31), behavioral hostility (HR per SD: 1.13, confidence interval: 1.05-1.21), cognitive hostility (HR per SD: 1.26, confidence interval: 1.18-1.35), and irritability (HR per SD: 1.20, confidence interval: 1.12-1.29). The risk of peptic ulcer increased from the lowest to the highest quartile for all hostility measures (p for linear trend < .05). Hostility might be associated with an increased risk of peptic ulcer. Should these results be replicated, further studies would be needed to explore the underlying mechanisms.

Refining a major QTL controlling spotted wilt disease resistance in cultivated peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.)and evaluating its contribution to the resistance variations in peanut germplasm

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Spotted wilt, caused by tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV), has been one of major diseases in cultivated peanut grown in the southeastern United States (US) since 1990. Previously a major quantitative trait locus (QTL) controlling spotted wilt disease resistance was mapped to an interval of 2.55 cent...

Albumin treatment regimen for type 1 hepatorenal syndrome: a dose-response meta-analysis.

PubMed

Salerno, Francesco; Navickis, Roberta J; Wilkes, Mahlon M

2015-11-25

Recommended treatment for type 1 hepatorenal syndrome consists of albumin and vasoconstrictor. The optimal albumin dose remains poorly characterized. This meta-analysis aimed to determine the impact of albumin dose on treatment outcomes. Clinical studies of type 1 hepatorenal syndrome treatment with albumin and vasoconstrictor were sought. Search terms included: hepatorenal syndrome; albumin; vasoconstrictor; terlipressin; midodrine; octreotide; noradrenaline; and norepinephrine. A meta-analysis was performed of hepatorenal syndrome reversal and survival in relation to albumin dose. Nineteen clinical studies with 574 total patients were included, comprising 8 randomized controlled trials, 8 prospective studies and 3 retrospective studies. The pooled percentage of patients achieving hepatorenal syndrome reversal was 49.5% (95% confidence interval, 40.0-59.1%). Increments of 100 g in cumulative albumin dose were accompanied by significantly increased survival (hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.31; p = 0.023). A non-significant increase of similar magnitude in hepatorenal syndrome reversal was also observed (odds ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.37; p = 0.10). Expected survival rates at 30 days among patients receiving cumulative albumin doses of 200, 400 and 600 g were 43.2% (95% confidence interval, 36.4-51.3%), 51.4% (95% confidence interval, 46.3-57.1%) and 59.0% (95% confidence interval, 51.9-67.2), respectively. Neither survival nor hepatorenal syndrome reversal was significantly affected by vasoconstrictor dose or type, treatment duration, age, baseline serum creatinine, bilirubin or albumin, baseline mean arterial pressure, or study design, size or time period. This meta-analysis suggests a dose-response relationship between infused albumin and survival in patients with type 1 hepatorenal syndrome. The meta-analysis provides the best current evidence on the potential role of albumin dose selection in improving outcomes of treatment for type 1 HRS and furnishes guidance for the design of future dose-ranging studies.

Prevalence of orofacial clefts and risks for nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate in newborns at a university hospital from West Mexico.

PubMed

Corona-Rivera, Jorge Román; Bobadilla-Morales, Lucina; Corona-Rivera, Alfredo; Peña-Padilla, Christian; Olvera-Molina, Sandra; Orozco-Martín, Miriam A; García-Cruz, Diana; Ríos-Flores, Izabel M; Gómez-Rodríguez, Brian Gabriel; Rivas-Soto, Gemma; Pérez-Molina, J Jesús

2018-02-19

We determined the overall prevalence of typical orofacial clefts and the potential risks for nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate in a university hospital from West México. For the prevalence, 227 liveborn infants with typical orofacial clefts were included from a total of 81,193 births occurred during the period 2009-2016 at the "Dr. Juan I. Menchaca" Civil Hospital of Guadalajara (Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico). To evaluate potential risks, a case-control study was conducted among 420 newborns, including only those 105 patients with nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (cases), and 315 infants without birth defects (controls). Data were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression analysis expressed as adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals . The overall prevalence for typical orofacial clefts was 28 per 10,000 (95% confidence interval: 24.3-31.6), or 1 per 358 live births. The mean values for the prepregnancy weight, antepartum weight, and pre-pregnancy body mass index were statistically higher among the mothers of cases. Infants with nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate had a significantly higher risk for previous history of any type of congenital anomaly (adjusted odds ratio: 2.7; 95% confidence interval: 1.4-5.1), history of a relative with cleft lip with or without cleft palate (adjusted odds ratio: 19.6; 95% confidence interval: 8.2-47.1), and first-trimester exposures to progestogens (adjusted odds ratio: 6.8; 95% CI 1.8-25.3), hyperthermia (adjusted odds ratio: 3.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-10.6), and common cold (adjusted odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-11.9). These risks could have contributed to explain the high prevalence of orofacial clefts in our region of Mexico, emphasizing that except for history of relatives with cleft lip with or without cleft palate, most are susceptible of modification. © 2018 Japanese Teratology Society.

Fixed ratio combinations of glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists with basal insulin: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liakopoulou, Paraskevi; Liakos, Aris; Vasilakou, Despoina; Athanasiadou, Eleni; Bekiari, Eleni; Kazakos, Kyriakos; Tsapas, Apostolos

2017-06-01

Basal insulin controls primarily fasting plasma glucose but causes hypoglycaemia and weight gain, whilst glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists induce weight loss without increasing risk for hypoglycaemia. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials to investigate the efficacy and safety of fixed ratio combinations of basal insulin with glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists. We searched Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library as well as conference abstracts up to December 2016. We assessed change in haemoglobin A 1c , body weight, and incidence of hypoglycaemia and gastrointestinal adverse events. We included eight studies with 5732 participants in the systematic review. Switch from basal insulin to fixed ratio combinations with a glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonist was associated with 0.72% reduction in haemoglobin A 1c [95% confidence interval -1.03 to -0.41; I 2  = 93%] and 2.35 kg reduction in body weight (95% confidence interval -3.52 to -1.19; I 2  = 93%), reducing also risk for hypoglycaemia [odds ratio 0.70; 95% confidence interval 0.57 to 0.86; I 2  = 85%] but increasing incidence of nausea (odds ratio 6.89; 95% confidence interval 3.73-12.74; I 2  = 79%). Similarly, switching patients from treatment with a glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonist to a fixed ratio combination with basal insulin was associated with 0.94% reduction in haemoglobin A 1c (95% confidence interval -1.11 to -0.77) and an increase in body weight by 2.89 kg (95% confidence interval 2.17-3.61). Fixed ratio combinations of basal insulin with glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists improve glycaemic control whilst balancing out risk for hypoglycaemia and gastrointestinal side effects.

Neonatal Infection in Children With Cerebral Palsy: A Registry-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Smilga, Anne-Sophie; Garfinkle, Jarred; Ng, Pamela; Andersen, John; Buckley, David; Fehlings, Darcy; Kirton, Adam; Wood, Ellen; van Rensburg, Esias; Shevell, Michael; Oskoui, Maryam

2018-03-01

The goal of this study was to explore the association between neonatal infection and outcomes in children with cerebral palsy. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Canadian CP Registry. Neonatal infection was defined as meeting one of the following criteria: (1) septicemia, (2) septic shock, or (3) administration of antibiotics for ≥10 days. Phenotypic profiles of children with cerebral palsy with and without an antecedent neonatal infection were compared. Subgroup analysis was performed, stratified by gestational age (term versus preterm). Of the 1229 registry participants, 505 (41.1%) were preterm, and 192 (15.6%) met the criteria for neonatal infection with 29% of preterm children having a neonatal infection compared with 6.5% in term-born children. Children with prior neonatal infection were more likely to have a white matter injury (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 3.2), spastic diplegic neurological subtype (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 2.3), and sensorineural auditory impairment (odds ratio 2.1, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 3.3). Among preterm children, neonatal infection was not associated with a difference in phenotypic profile. Term-born children with neonatal infection were more likely to have spastic triplegia or quadriplegia (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 4.3), concomitant white matter and cortical injury (odds ratio 4.1, 95% confidence interval 1.6 to 10.3), and more severe gross motor ability (Gross Motor Function Classification System IV to V) (odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.8) compared with preterm children. Findings suggest a role of systemic infection on the developing brain in term-born infants, and the possibility to develop targeted therapeutic and preventive strategies to reduce cerebral palsy morbidity. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

T-category remains an important prognostic factor for oropharyngeal carcinoma in the era of human papillomavirus.

PubMed

Mackenzie, P; Pryor, D; Burmeister, E; Foote, M; Panizza, B; Burmeister, B; Porceddu, S

2014-10-01

To determine prognostic factors for locoregional relapse (LRR), distant relapse and all-cause death in a contemporary cohort of locoregionally advanced oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy or radiotherapy alone. OSCC patients treated with definitive radiotherapy between 2005 and 2010 were identified from a prospective head and neck database. Patient age, gender, smoking history, human papillomavirus (HPV) status, T- and N-category, lowest involved nodal level and gross tumour volume of the primary (GTV-p) and nodal (GTV-n) disease were analysed in relation to LRR, distant relapse and death by way of univariate and multivariate analysis. In total, 130 patients were identified, 88 HPV positive, with a median follow-up of 42 months. On multivariate analysis HPV status was a significant predictor of LRR (hazard ratio 0.15; 95% confidence interval 0.05-0.51) and death (hazard ratio 0.29; 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.59) but not distant relapse (hazard ratio 0.53, 95% confidence interval 0.22-1.27). Increasing T-category was associated with a higher risk of LRR (hazard ratio 1.80 for T3/4 versus T1/2; 95% confidence interval 1.08-2.99), death (hazard ratio 1.37, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.77) and distant relapse (hazard ratio 1.35; 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.83). Increasing GTV-p was associated with increased risk of distant relapse and death. N3 disease and low neck nodes were significant for LRR, distant relapse and death on univariate analysis only. Tumour HPV status was the strongest predictor of LRR and death. T-category is more predictive of distant relapse and may provide additional prognostic value for LRR and death when accounting for HPV status. Copyright © 2014 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) as screening instruments for depression in patients with cancer.

PubMed

Hartung, Tim J; Friedrich, Michael; Johansen, Christoffer; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Faller, Herman; Koch, Uwe; Brähler, Elmar; Härter, Martin; Keller, Monika; Schulz, Holger; Wegscheider, Karl; Weis, Joachim; Mehnert, Anja

2017-11-01

Depression screening in patients with cancer is recommended by major clinical guidelines, although the evidence on individual screening tools is limited for this population. Here, the authors assess and compare the diagnostic accuracy of 2 established screening instruments: the depression modules of the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D), in a representative sample of patients with cancer. This multicenter study was conducted with a proportional, stratified, random sample of 2141 patients with cancer across all major tumor sites and treatment settings. The PHQ-9 and HADS-D were assessed and compared in terms of diagnostic accuracy and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition diagnosis of major depressive disorder using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview for Oncology as the criterion standard. The diagnostic accuracy of the PHQ-9 and HADS-D was fair for diagnosing major depressive disorder, with areas under the ROC curves of 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.79) and 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.77), respectively. The 2 questionnaires did not differ significantly in their areas under the ROC curves (P = .15). The PHQ-9 with a cutoff score ≥7 had the best screening performance, with a sensitivity of 83% (95% confidence interval, 78%-89%) and a specificity of 61% (95% confidence interval, 59%-63%). The American Society of Clinical Oncology guideline screening algorithm had a sensitivity of 44% (95% confidence interval, 36%-51%) and a specificity of 84% (95% confidence interval, 83%-85%). In patients with cancer, the screening performance of both the PHQ-9 and the HADS-D was limited compared with a standardized diagnostic interview. Costs and benefits of routinely screening all patients with cancer should be weighed carefully. Cancer 2017;123:4236-4243. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Variable impact on mortality of AIDS-defining events diagnosed during combination antiretroviral therapy: not all AIDS-defining conditions are created equal.

PubMed

Mocroft, Amanda; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Egger, Matthias; May, Margaret; Grabar, Sophie; Furrer, Hansjakob; Sabin, Caroline; Fatkenheuer, Gerd; Justice, Amy; Reiss, Peter; d'Arminio Monforte, Antonella; Gill, John; Hogg, Robert; Bonnet, Fabrice; Kitahata, Mari; Staszewski, Schlomo; Casabona, Jordi; Harris, Ross; Saag, Michael

2009-04-15

The extent to which mortality differs following individual acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining events (ADEs) has not been assessed among patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy. We analyzed data from 31,620 patients with no prior ADEs who started combination antiretroviral therapy. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate mortality hazard ratios for each ADE that occurred in >50 patients, after stratification by cohort and adjustment for sex, HIV transmission group, number of antiretroviral drugs initiated, regimen, age, date of starting combination antiretroviral therapy, and CD4+ cell count and HIV RNA load at initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy. ADEs that occurred in <50 patients were grouped together to form a "rare ADEs" category. During a median follow-up period of 43 months (interquartile range, 19-70 months), 2880 ADEs were diagnosed in 2262 patients; 1146 patients died. The most common ADEs were esophageal candidiasis (in 360 patients), Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (320 patients), and Kaposi sarcoma (308 patients). The greatest mortality hazard ratio was associated with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (hazard ratio, 17.59; 95% confidence interval, 13.84-22.35) and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (hazard ratio, 10.0; 95% confidence interval, 6.70-14.92). Three groups of ADEs were identified on the basis of the ranked hazard ratios with bootstrapped confidence intervals: severe (non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy [hazard ratio, 7.26; 95% confidence interval, 5.55-9.48]), moderate (cryptococcosis, cerebral toxoplasmosis, AIDS dementia complex, disseminated Mycobacterium avium complex, and rare ADEs [hazard ratio, 2.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.76-3.13]), and mild (all other ADEs [hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.00]). In the combination antiretroviral therapy era, mortality rates subsequent to an ADE depend on the specific diagnosis. The proposed classification of ADEs may be useful in clinical end point trials, prognostic studies, and patient management.

Out-of-range INR values and outcomes among new warfarin patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Nelson, Winnie W; Wang, Li; Baser, Onur; Damaraju, Chandrasekharrao V; Schein, Jeffrey R

2015-02-01

Although efficacious in stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation, many warfarin patients are sub-optimally managed. To evaluate the association of international normalized ratio control and clinical outcomes among new warfarin patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. Adult non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients (≥18 years) initiating warfarin treatment were selected from the US Veterans Health Administration dataset between 10/2007 and 9/2012. Valid international normalized ratio values were examined from the warfarin initiation date through the earlier of the first clinical outcome, end of warfarin exposure or death. Each patient contributed multiple in-range and out-of-range time periods. The relative risk ratios of clinical outcomes associated with international normalized ratio control were estimated. 34,346 patients were included for analysis. During the warfarin exposure period, the incidence of events per 100 person-years was highest when patients had international normalized ratio <2:13.66 for acute coronary syndrome; 10.30 for ischemic stroke; 2.93 for transient ischemic attack; 1.81 for systemic embolism; and 4.55 for major bleeding. Poisson regression confirmed that during periods with international normalized ratio <2, patients were at increased risk of developing acute coronary syndrome (relative risk ratio: 7.9; 95 % confidence interval 6.9-9.1), ischemic stroke (relative risk ratio: 7.6; 95 % confidence interval 6.5-8.9), transient ischemic attack (relative risk ratio: 8.2; 95 % confidence interval 6.1-11.2), systemic embolism (relative risk ratio: 6.3; 95 % confidence interval 4.4-8.9) and major bleeding (relative risk ratio: 2.6; 95 % confidence interval 2.2-3.0). During time periods with international normalized ratio >3, patients had significantly increased risk of major bleeding (relative risk ratio: 1.5; 95 % confidence interval 1.2-2.0). In a Veterans Health Administration non-valvular atrial fibrillation population, exposure to out-of-range international normalized ratio values was associated with significantly increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes.

The prevalence of diagnosed tourette syndrome in Canada: A national population-based study.

PubMed

Yang, Jaeun; Hirsch, Lauren; Martino, Davide; Jette, Nathalie; Roberts, Jodie; Pringsheim, Tamara

2016-11-01

The objective of this study was to examine: (1) the prevalence of diagnosed Tourette syndrome in Canada by sex in youth (aged 12-17) and adults and (2) socioeconomic factors in this population. The majority of epidemiological studies of tics have focused on children and youth, with few studies describing the prevalence of tics in adult populations. Canadian data on Tourette syndrome prevalence were derived from the Canadian Community Health Survey 2010 and 2011 cycles, a Statistics Canada population-based cross-sectional survey that collects information related to health status. We determined the prevalence of diagnosed Tourette syndrome and examined sociodemographic factors, including age, sex, education, income, employment, and birthplace. Overall, 122,884 Canadians participated in the surveys, with 122 participants diagnosed with Tourette syndrome. The prevalence of Tourette syndrome was higher in males in youth: 6.03 per 1000 (95% confidence interval: 3.24-8.81) in males versus 0.48 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval: 0.05-0.91) in females, with a prevalence risk ratio of 5.31 (95% confidence interval: 2.38-11.81). In adults, the prevalence of Tourette syndrome was 0.89 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval: 0.48-1.29) in males versus 0.44 (95% confidence interval: 0.16.0-0.71) in females, with a prevalence risk ratio of 1.93 (95% confidence interval: 1.21-3.08). After adjusting for age and sex, adults with Tourette syndrome had lower odds of receiving postsecondary education or being employed and higher odds of having income lower than the median and receiving governmental support. Data on the prevalence of Tourette syndrome in adults are scarce because most studies focus on children. Our data demonstrate a decreasing prevalence risk ratio for sex in adults compared to children. A diagnosis of Tourette syndrome is associated with lower education, income, and employment in adulthood. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Stroke preparedness in children: translating knowledge into behavioral intent: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ottawa, Cassandra; Sposato, Luciano A; Nabbouh, Fadl; Saposnik, Gustavo

2015-10-01

If translated into behavioral intent, improving stroke knowledge may potentially impact on better outcomes. Children are an attractive target population since they can drive familial behavioral changes. However, the impact of interventions on stroke knowledge among children is unclear. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate whether educational interventions targeting children improve stroke knowledge and lead to behavioral changes. We searched Ovid, PubMed, and Embase between January 2000 and December 2014. We included studies written in English reporting the number of children aged 6-15 years undergoing educational interventions on stroke and providing the results for baseline and early and late postintervention tests. We compared the proportion of correct answers between baseline, early, and late responses for two endpoints: knowledge and behavioral intent. Of the initial 58 articles found, we included nine that met the inclusion criteria. Compared with baseline tests (51·7%, 95% confidence interval 40·9-62·4), there was improvement in stroke knowledge in early (74·0%, 95% confidence interval 64·4-82·5, P = 0·002) and late (67·3%, 95% confidence interval 55·4-78·2, P = 0·027) responses. There was improvement in the early (92·1%, 95% confidence interval 86·0-96·6, P < 0·001) and late (83·9%, 95% confidence interval 73·5-92·1, P = 0·001) responses for behavioral intent compared with the baseline assessment (63·8%, 95% confidence interval 53·5-73·4). Children are a potentially attractive target population for improvement in stroke knowledge and behavioral intent, both in the short and long term. Our findings may support the implementation of large-scale stroke educational initiatives targeting children. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

Suicide in patients with gastric cancer: a population-based study.

PubMed

Sugawara, Akitomo; Kunieda, Etsuo

2016-09-01

We conducted this study to examine the rate of suicide in patients with gastric cancer and to identify factors associated with increased risk of suicide using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The database was queried for patients who were diagnosed with gastric cancer from 1998 to 2011. The rate of suicide and standardized mortality ratio were calculated. Multivariable analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with increased risk of suicide. A total of 65 535 patients with 109 597 person-years of follow-up were included. A total of 68 patients died of suicide. The age-adjusted rate of suicide was 34.6 per 100 000 person-years (standardized mortality ratios, 4.07; 95% confidence interval, 3.18-5.13). The rate of suicide was highest within the first 3 months after cancer diagnosis (standardized mortality ratios, 67.67; 95% confidence interval, 40.74-106.15). Results of multivariable analyses showed that male sex (incidence rate ratio, 7.15; 95% confidence interval, 3.05-16.78; P < 0.0001), White race (incidence rate ratio, 3.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-10.35; P = 0.0491), unmarried status (incidence rate ratio, 2.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.30; P = 0.0060) and distant stage disease (incidence rate ratio, 2.90; 95% confidence interval, 1.72-4.92; P < 0.0001) were significantly associated with increased risk of suicide. Patients with gastric cancer have an ~4-fold higher risk of suicide compared with the general US population. The suicide risk is highest within the first 3 months after diagnosis. Male sex, White race, unmarried status and distant stage disease are significantly associated with increased risk of suicide. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Integrating palliative care across settings: A retrospective cohort study of a hospice home care programme for cancer patients.

PubMed

Tan, Woan Shin; Lee, Angel; Yang, Sze Yee; Chan, Susan; Wu, Huei Yaw; Ng, Charis Wei Ling; Heng, Bee Hoon

2016-07-01

Terminally ill patients at the end-of-life do transit between care settings due to their complex care needs. Problems of care fragmentation could result in poor quality of care. We aimed to evaluate the impact of an integrated hospice home care programme on acute care service usage and on the share of home deaths. The retrospective study cohort comprised patients who were diagnosed with cancer, had an expected prognosis of 1 year or less, and were referred to a home hospice. The intervention group comprised deceased patients enrolled in the integrated hospice home care programme between September 2012 and June 2014. The historical comparison group comprised deceased patients who were referred to other home hospices between January 2007 and January 2011. There were 321 cases and 593 comparator subjects. Relative to the comparator group, the share of hospital deaths was significantly lower for programme participants (12.1% versus 42.7%). After adjusting for differences at baseline, the intervention group had statistically significantly lower emergency department visits at 30 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.38; 95% confidence interval: 0.31-0.47), 60 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.61; 95% confidence interval: 0.54-0.69) and 90 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.69; 95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.77) prior to death. Similar results held for the number of hospitalisations at 30 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.48; 95% confidence interval: 0.40-0.58), 60 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.71; 95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.82) and 90 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.77; 95% confidence interval: 0.68-0.88) prior to death. Our results demonstrated that by integrating services between acute care and home hospice care, a reduction in acute care service usage could occur. © The Author(s) 2016.

Prevalence of dry eye syndrome in an adult population.

PubMed

Hashemi, Hassan; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi; Kheirkhah, Ahmad; Emamian, Mohammad Hassan; Mehravaran, Shiva; Shariati, Mohammad; Fotouhi, Akbar

2014-04-01

To determine the prevalence of dry eye syndrome in the general 40- to 64-year-old population of Shahroud, Iran. Population-based cross-sectional study. Through cluster sampling, 6311 people were selected and 5190 participated. Assessment of dry eye was done in a random subsample of 1008 people. Subjective assessment for dry eye syndrome was performed using Ocular Surface Disease Index questionnaire. In addition, the following objective tests of dry eye syndrome were employed: Schirmer test, tear break-up time, and fluorescein and Rose Bengal staining using the Oxford grading scheme. Those with an Ocular Surface Disease Index score ≥23 were considered symptomatic, and dry eye syndrome was defined as having symptoms and at least one positive objective sign. The prevalence of dry eye syndrome was 8.7% (95% confidence interval 6.9-10.6). Assessment of signs showed an abnormal Schirmer score in 17.8% (95% confidence interval 15.5-20.0), tear break-up time in 34.2% (95% confidence interval 29.5-38.8), corneal fluorescein staining (≥1) in 11.3% (95% confidence interval 8.5-14.1) and Rose Bengal staining (≥3 for cornea and/or conjunctiva) in 4.9% (95% confidence interval 3.4-6.5). According to the Ocular Surface Disease Index scores, 18.3% (95% confidence interval 15.9-20.6) had dry eye syndrome symptoms. The prevalence of dry eye syndrome was significantly higher in women (P = 0.010) and not significantly associated with age (P = 0.291). The objective dry eye syndrome signs significantly increased with age. Based on the findings, the prevalence of dry eye syndrome in the studied population is in the mid-range. The prevalence is higher in women. Also, objective tests tend to turn abnormal at higher age. Pterygium is associated with dry eye syndrome and increased its symptoms. © 2013 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

The diagnostic value of narrow-band imaging for early and invasive lung cancer: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhu, Juanjuan; Li, Wei; Zhou, Jihong; Chen, Yuqing; Zhao, Chenling; Zhang, Ting; Peng, Wenjia; Wang, Xiaojing

2017-07-01

This study aimed to compare the ability of narrow-band imaging to detect early and invasive lung cancer with that of conventional pathological analysis and white-light bronchoscopy. We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Sinomed, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases for relevant studies. Meta-disc software was used to perform data analysis, meta-regression analysis, sensitivity analysis, and heterogeneity testing, and STATA software was used to determine if publication bias was present, as well as to calculate the relative risks for the sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging vs those of white-light bronchoscopy for the detection of early and invasive lung cancer. A random-effects model was used to assess the diagnostic efficacy of the above modalities in cases in which a high degree of between-study heterogeneity was noted with respect to their diagnostic efficacies. The database search identified six studies including 578 patients. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging were 86% (95% confidence interval: 83-88%) and 81% (95% confidence interval: 77-84%), respectively, and the pooled sensitivity and specificity of white-light bronchoscopy were 70% (95% confidence interval: 66-74%) and 66% (95% confidence interval: 62-70%), respectively. The pooled relative risks for the sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging vs the sensitivity and specificity of white-light bronchoscopy for the detection of early and invasive lung cancer were 1.33 (95% confidence interval: 1.07-1.67) and 1.09 (95% confidence interval: 0.84-1.42), respectively, and sensitivity analysis showed that narrow-band imaging exhibited good diagnostic efficacy with respect to detecting early and invasive lung cancer and that the results of the study were stable. Narrow-band imaging was superior to white light bronchoscopy with respect to detecting early and invasive lung cancer; however, the specificities of the two modalities did not differ significantly.

Antecedents and neuroimaging patterns in cerebral palsy with epilepsy and cognitive impairment: a population-based study in children born at term.

PubMed

Ahlin, Kristina; Jacobsson, Bo; Nilsson, Staffan; Himmelmann, Kate

2017-07-01

Antecedents of accompanying impairments in cerebral palsy and their relation to neuroimaging patterns need to be explored. A population-based study of 309 children with cerebral palsy born at term between 1983 and 1994. Prepartum, intrapartum, and postpartum variables previously studied as antecedents of cerebral palsy type and motor severity were analyzed in children with cerebral palsy and cognitive impairment and/or epilepsy, and in children with cerebral palsy without these accompanying impairments. Neuroimaging patterns and their relation to identified antecedents were analyzed. Data were retrieved from the cerebral palsy register of western Sweden, and from obstetric and neonatal records. Children with cerebral palsy and accompanying impairments more often had low birthweight (kg) (odds ratio 0.5, 95% confidence interval 0.3-0.8), brain maldevelopment known at birth (p = 0.007, odds ratio ∞) and neonatal infection (odds ratio 5.4, 95% confidence interval 1.04-28.4). Moreover, neuroimaging patterns of maldevelopment (odds ratio 7.2, 95% confidence interval 2.9-17.2), cortical/subcortical lesions (odds ratio 5.3, 95% confidence interval 2.3-12.2) and basal ganglia lesions (odds ratio 7.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4-41.3) were more common, wheras white matter injury was found significantly less often (odds ratio 0.2, 95% confidence interval 0.1-0.5). In most children with maldevelopment, the intrapartum and postpartum periods were uneventful (p < 0.05). Cerebral maldevelopment was associated with prepartum antecedents, whereas subcortical/cortical and basal ganglia lesions were associated with intrapartum and postpartum antecedents. No additional factor other than those related to motor impairment was associated with epilepsy and cognitive impairment in cerebral palsy. Timing of antecedents deemed important for the development of cerebral palsy with accompanying impairments were supported by neuroimaging patterns. © 2017 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Breast cancer biology varies by method of detection and may contribute to overdiagnosis.

PubMed

Hayse, Brandon; Hooley, Regina J; Killelea, Brigid K; Horowitz, Nina R; Chagpar, Anees B; Lannin, Donald R

2016-08-01

Recently, it has been suggested that screening mammography may result in some degree of overdiagnosis (ie, detection of breast cancers that would never become clinically important within the lifespan of the patient). The extent and biology of these overdiagnosed cancers, however, is not well understood, and the effect of newer screening modalities on overdiagnosis is unknown. We performed a retrospective review of a prospectively collected database of breast cancers diagnosed at the Yale Breast Center from 2004-2014. The mode of initial presentation was categorized into 5 groups: screening mammogram, screening magnetic resonance imaging, screening ultrasonography, self-detected masses, and physician-detected masses. Compared with cancers presenting with masses, cancers detected by image-based screening were more likely to present with ductal carcinoma-in-situ or T1 cancers (P < .001). In addition to a simple stage shift, however, cancers detected by image-based screening were also more likely to be luminal and low-grade cancers; symptomatic cancers were more likely high-grade and triple-negative (P < .001, respectively). On a multivariate analysis, adjusting for age, race, and tumor size, cancers detected by mammogram, US, and magnetic resonance imaging had greater odds of being luminal (odds ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval, 1.5-2.3; odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval, 1.1-4.7; and odds ratio 4.7, 95% confidence interval, 2.1-10.6, respectively), and low-grade (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval, 1.6-2.9; odds ratio 4.9, 95% confidence interval, 2.7-8.9; and odds ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval, 2.6-8.1, respectively) compared with cancers presenting with self-detected masses. Screening detects cancers with more indolent biology, potentially contributing to the observed rate of overdiagnosis. With magnetic resonance imaging and US being used more commonly for screening, the rate of overdiagnosis may increase further. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Peritoneal Dialysis Access Revision in Children: Causes, Interventions, and Outcomes.

PubMed

Borzych-Duzalka, Dagmara; Aki, T Fazil; Azocar, Marta; White, Colin; Harvey, Elizabeth; Mir, Sevgi; Adragna, Marta; Serdaroglu, Erkin; Sinha, Rajiv; Samaille, Charlotte; Vanegas, Juan Jose; Kari, Jameela; Barbosa, Lorena; Bagga, Arvind; Galanti, Monica; Yavascan, Onder; Leozappa, Giovanna; Szczepanska, Maria; Vondrak, Karel; Tse, Kei-Chiu; Schaefer, Franz; Warady, Bradley A

2017-01-06

Little published information is available about access failure in children undergoing chronic peritoneal dialysis. Our objectives were to evaluate frequency, risk factors, interventions, and outcome of peritoneal dialysis access revision. Data were derived from 824 incident and 1629 prevalent patients from 105 pediatric nephrology centers enrolled in the International Pediatric Peritoneal Dialysis Network Registry between 2007 and 2015. In total, 452 access revisions were recorded in 321 (13%) of 2453 patients over 3134 patient-years of follow-up, resulting in an overall access revision rate of 0.14 per treatment year. Among 824 incident patients, 186 (22.6%) underwent 188 access revisions over 1066 patient-years, yielding an access revision rate of 0.17 per treatment year; 83% of access revisions in incident patients were reported within the first year of peritoneal dialysis treatment. Catheter survival rates in incident patients were 84%, 80%, 77%, and 73% at 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, respectively. By multivariate logistic regression analysis, risk of access revision was associated with younger age (odds ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.92 to 0.95; P<0.001), diagnosis of congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (odds ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.59; P=0.02), coexisting ostomies (odds ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.87; P=0.01), presence of swan neck tunnel with curled intraperitoneal portion (odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.63; P=0.02), and high gross national income (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.19; P=0.01). Main reasons for access revisions included mechanical malfunction (60%), peritonitis (16%), exit site infection (12%), and leakage (6%). Need for access revision increased the risk of peritoneal dialysis technique failure or death (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.65; P=0.003). Access dysfunction due to mechanical causes doubled the risk of technique failure compared with infectious causes (hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.20 to 2.30; P=0.03). Peritoneal dialysis catheter revisions are common in pediatric patients on peritoneal dialysis and complicate provision of chronic peritoneal dialysis. Attention to potentially modifiable risk factors by pediatric nephrologists and pediatric surgeons should be encouraged. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Peritoneal Dialysis Access Revision in Children: Causes, Interventions, and Outcomes

PubMed Central

Aki, T. Fazil; Azocar, Marta; White, Colin; Harvey, Elizabeth; Mir, Sevgi; Adragna, Marta; Serdaroglu, Erkin; Sinha, Rajiv; Samaille, Charlotte; Vanegas, Juan Jose; Kari, Jameela; Barbosa, Lorena; Bagga, Arvind; Galanti, Monica; Yavascan, Onder; Leozappa, Giovanna; Szczepanska, Maria; Vondrak, Karel; Tse, Kei-Chiu; Schaefer, Franz; Warady, Bradley A.

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Little published information is available about access failure in children undergoing chronic peritoneal dialysis. Our objectives were to evaluate frequency, risk factors, interventions, and outcome of peritoneal dialysis access revision. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Data were derived from 824 incident and 1629 prevalent patients from 105 pediatric nephrology centers enrolled in the International Pediatric Peritoneal Dialysis Network Registry between 2007 and 2015. Results In total, 452 access revisions were recorded in 321 (13%) of 2453 patients over 3134 patient-years of follow-up, resulting in an overall access revision rate of 0.14 per treatment year. Among 824 incident patients, 186 (22.6%) underwent 188 access revisions over 1066 patient-years, yielding an access revision rate of 0.17 per treatment year; 83% of access revisions in incident patients were reported within the first year of peritoneal dialysis treatment. Catheter survival rates in incident patients were 84%, 80%, 77%, and 73% at 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, respectively. By multivariate logistic regression analysis, risk of access revision was associated with younger age (odds ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.92 to 0.95; P<0.001), diagnosis of congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (odds ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.59; P=0.02), coexisting ostomies (odds ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.87; P=0.01), presence of swan neck tunnel with curled intraperitoneal portion (odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.63; P=0.02), and high gross national income (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.19; P=0.01). Main reasons for access revisions included mechanical malfunction (60%), peritonitis (16%), exit site infection (12%), and leakage (6%). Need for access revision increased the risk of peritoneal dialysis technique failure or death (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.65; P=0.003). Access dysfunction due to mechanical causes doubled the risk of technique failure compared with infectious causes (hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.20 to 2.30; P=0.03). Conclusions Peritoneal dialysis catheter revisions are common in pediatric patients on peritoneal dialysis and complicate provision of chronic peritoneal dialysis. Attention to potentially modifiable risk factors by pediatric nephrologists and pediatric surgeons should be encouraged. PMID:27899416

Toxoplasma gondii exposure and epilepsy: A matched case-control study in a public hospital in northern Mexico.

PubMed

Alvarado-Esquivel, Cosme; Rico-Almochantaf, Yazmin Del Rosario; Hernández-Tinoco, Jesús; Quiñones-Canales, Gerardo; Sánchez-Anguiano, Luis Francisco; Torres-González, Jorge; Ramírez-Valles, Eda Guadalupe; Minjarez-Veloz, Andrea

2018-01-01

This study aimed to determine the association between infection with Toxoplasma gondii and epilepsy in patients attended to in a public hospital in the northern Mexican city of Durango. We performed an age- and gender-matched case-control study of 99 patients suffering from epilepsy and 99 without epilepsy. Sera of participants were analyzed for anti- T. gondii IgG and IgM antibodies using commercially available enzyme-linked immunoassays. Seropositive samples to T. gondii were further analyzed for detection of T. gondii DNA by polymerase chain reaction. Anti- T. gondii IgG antibodies were found in 10 (10.1%) of the 99 cases and in 6 (6.1%) of the 99 controls (odds ratio = 1.74; 95% confidence interval: 0.60-4.99; p = 0.43). High (> 150 IU/mL) levels of anti- T. gondii IgG antibodies were found in 6 of the 99 cases and in 4 of the 99 controls (odds ratio = 1.53; 95% confidence interval: 0.41-5.60; p = 0.74). Anti- T. gondii IgM antibodies were found in 2 of the 10 IgG seropositive cases, and in 2 of the 6 IgG seropositive controls (odds ratio = 0.50; 95% confidence interval: 0.05-4.97; p = 0.60). T. gondii DNA was not found in any of the 10 anti- T. gondii IgG positive patients. Bivariate analysis of IgG seropositivity to T. gondii and International Statistical Classification of Diseases and related Health Problems, 10th Edition codes of epilepsy showed an association between seropositivity and G40.1 code (odds ratio = 22.0; 95% confidence interval: 2.59-186.5; p = 0.008). Logistic regression analysis showed an association between T. gondii infection and consumption of goat meat (odds ratio = 6.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.22-34.64; p = 0.02), unwashed raw vegetables (odds ratio = 26.3; 95% confidence interval: 2.61-265.23; p = 0.006), and tobacco use (odds ratio = 6.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.06-36.66; p = 0.04). Results suggest that T. gondii infection does not increase the risk of epilepsy in our setting; however, infection might be linked to specific types of epilepsy. Factors associated with T. gondii infection found in this study may aid in the design of preventive measures against toxoplasmosis.

Association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism and susceptibility to vitiligo: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Agarwal, Silky; Changotra, Harish

2017-01-01

Protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 gene, which translates to lymphoid tyrosine phosphatase, is considered to be a susceptibility gene marker associated with several autoimmune diseases. Several studies have demonstrated the association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism with vitiligo. However, these studies showed conflicting results. Meta-analysis of the same was conducted earlier that included fewer number of publications in their study. We performed a meta-analysis of a total of seven studies consisting of 2094 cases and 3613 controls to evaluate the possible association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C>T polymorphism with vitiligo susceptibility. We conducted a literature search in PubMed, Google Scholar and Dogpile for all published paper on protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism and vitiligo risk till June 2016. Data analysis was performed by RevMan 5.3 and comprehensive meta-analysis v3.0 software. Meta-analysis showed an overall significant association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non- receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism with vitiligo in all models (allelic model [T vs. C]: odds ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval [1.32-1.71], P< 0.001; dominant model [TT + CT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 1.61, 95% confidence interval [1.16-2.24], P = 0.004; recessive model [TT vs. CT + CC]: odds ratio = 4.82, 95% confidence interval [1.11-20.92], P = 0.04; homozygous model [TT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 5.34, 95% confidence interval [1.23-23.24], P = 0.03; co-dominant model [CT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 1.52, 95% confidence interval [1.09-2.13], P = 0.01). No publication bias was detected in the funnel plot study. Limited ethnic-based studies, unable to satisfy data by gender or vitiligo-type are some limitations of the present meta-analysis. Stratifying data by ethnicity showed an association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T with vitiligo in European population (odds ratio = 1.53, 95% confidence interval [1.34-1.75], P< 0.001) but not in Asian population (odds ratio = 0.59, 95% confidence interval [0.26-1.32], P = 0.2). In conclusion, protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858 T allele predisposes European individuals to vitiligo.

Predictors of Mortality in Patients with Penetrating Inferior Vena Cava Injuries Surviving to the Operating Room.

PubMed

Maciel, James D; Plurad, David; Gifford, Edward; deVirgilio, Christian; Koopmann, Matt; Neville, Angela; Putnam, Brant; Kim, Dennis Y

2015-10-01

Inferior vena cava (IVC) injuries are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. To identify clinical factors associated with mortality in patients undergoing operative intervention for penetrating IVC injuries, a retrospective review of 98 patients was performed, excluding blunt injuries (n = 20) and deaths before surgery (n = 16). The overall mortality was 58 per cent. Nonsurvivors more commonly presented with hypotension (50% vs 23%, P = 0.03) and underwent resuscitative thoracotomy more frequently (42% vs 4%, P = 0.01). Retrohepatic injuries were more common among nonsurvivors (P = 0.04). There was no difference in the use of ligation (7% vs 17%, P = 0.29) or the massive transfusion protocol (35% vs 25%, P = 0.41). On multivariate analysis, after controlling for mechanism of injury, admission hypotension, Glasgow Coma Scale score , preoperative cumulative fluids, resuscitative thoracotomy , absence of spontaneous tamponade, and location of IVC injury, the only independent predictor of mortality was the absence of spontaneous tamponade at the time of laparotomy (odds ratio = 5.4, 95% confidence interval: 1.11-25.95; P = 0.04). Penetrating IVC injuries continue to be associated with a high mortality, particularly among patients with free intraabdominal hemorrhage at laparotomy. Large multicenter studies are required to define the optimal resuscitative and operative management techniques in these severely injured patients.

HIV and syphilis infection among gold and diamond miners--Guyana, 2004.

PubMed

Seguy, N; Denniston, M; Hladik, W; Edwards, M; Lafleur, C; Singh-Anthony, S; Diaz, T

2008-11-01

Guyana had an estimated HIVprevalence of 1.5% among pregnant women in 2006 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.1-1.9). However, a survey of miners in one mine found a 6.5% HIV prevalence in 2002. To determine whether Guyanese miners are at high risk for HIV infection we conducted a HIV and syphilis prevalence survey of miners in several mines. Adult male consenting miners in 45 Guyanese mines were interviewed, counselled, tested for HIV and syphilis with rapid tests and provided onsite test results. The survey was cross-sectional and used a multi-stage cluster sampling design; population estimates were calculated using SUDAAN. Of 651 miners approached, 539 (83%) were interviewed and 509 (78%) tested. The estimated prevalence for HIV was 3.9% (CI = 2.1, 7.1) and for life-time syphilis exposure was 6.4% (CI = 4.5, 9.1). Fifty-four per cent (CI = 41.3, 66.7) of miners had casual sex during the preceding year, of whom 44.4% (CI = 34.3, 55.0) had always used condoms with these partners. The estimated HIV prevalence among Guyanese miners was higher than that of the general population. Targeted interventions including condom promotion are recommended to prevent further spread of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections among miners.

Enhanced recovery protocol: implementation at a county institution with limited resources.

PubMed

Rona, Kais; Choi, J; Sigle, G; Kidd, S; Ault, G; Senagore, A J

2012-10-01

The benefits of an enhanced recovery protocol (ERP) in colorectal surgery have been well described; however, data on the implementation process is minimal, especially in a resource-limited institution. The purpose of this study was to evaluate outcomes during implementation of a physician-driven ERP at a public-funded institution. We retrospectively reviewed all elective colorectal surgery during a transition from standard care to an ERP (implemented via a standard order sheet). Data regarding use of care plan, length of stay (LOS), and rates of postoperative complications and readmission were recorded. One hundred eleven patients were included in the study; however, complete use of the ERP after its introduction occurred in a total of 50 patients for a compliance rate of 60 per cent (95% confidence interval [CI], 49 to 70). Late implementation of ERP diet, analgesics, and activity were the most common process errors. Full application of the ERP reduced mean LOS by 3 days (P=0.002), and there was a trend toward decreased postoperative morbidity without an increase in readmission rate (P=0.61). Full implementation of an ERP for colorectal surgery faces many challenges in a resource-limited county institution; however, when fully applied, the ERP safely reduced overall LOS, which is important in cost containment.

Access to dental care among adults with physical and intellectual disabilities: residence factors.

PubMed

Pradhan, A; Slade, G D; Spencer, A J

2009-09-01

There is limited information about access and barriers to dental care among adults with disabilities. A mailed questionnaire survey of carers of 18-44-year-old South Australians with physical and intellectual disabilities (care recipients; n = 485) in family homes, community housing and institutions. Bivariate associations were tested using chi-square tests. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95 per cent confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for irregular dental visits (IDV). Carers from family homes and community housing were more likely to report problems in obtaining dental care than those at institutions (p < 0.001). Lack of dentists with adequate skills in special needs dentistry (SND) was the most frequently reported problem for carers from family homes and community housing. IDV were less likely (p < 0.01) for care recipients in institutions and community housing than in family homes. After adjusting for care recipients' age, gender and disability, odds of IDV was lower in community housing (OR = 0.2, 95% CI = 0.1, 0.3) and in institutions (OR = 0.1, 95% CI = 0.04, 0.3) relative to family homes. Care recipients in institutions and community housing had better access to dental care than those at family homes. The shortage of dentists in SND and treatment costs needs to be addressed.

PENETRATION OF RADIOACTIVE SODIUM AND CHLORIDE INTO CEREBROSPINAL FLUID AND AQUEOUS HUMOR

PubMed Central

Wang, Jun-Ch'uan

1948-01-01

1. Experiments were performed on six dogs to determine the rate of penetration of Cl33 and Na24 across the blood-aqueous humor and blood-cerebrospinal fluid barriers after intravenous injection of the radioactive ions. The radioactivity measurements were made with an immersion type of Geiger-Müller counter. 2. The concentrations of the labelled ions in the anterior chamber and the cisterna magna increase slowly to approach that of plasma. The rate of penetration k is calculated from a simple exponential equation with the half-value interval t 0.5 or the time required for the labelled-ion concentration in the fluid to reach 50 per cent of that of plasma. The average t 0.5 for Cl38 and Na24 in aqueous humor are 34.3 ± 9 and 27.3 ± 9 minutes, respectively, while those for cerebrospinal fluid are 90 ± 6 and 95 ± 6 minutes, respectively. 3. A study of the radioactivity in plasma was made to determine the per cent remaining after a steady state was reached. By means of this determination the sodium and chloride space was calculated to be 33 ± 5 per cent. PMID:18920614

Bayesian evidence for the prevalence of waterworlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, Fergus

2017-07-01

Should we expect most habitable planets to share the Earth's marbled appearance? For a planetary surface to boast extensive areas of both land and water, a delicate balance must be struck between the volume of water it retains and the capacity of its perturbations. These two quantities may show substantial variability across the full spectrum of water-bearing worlds. This would suggest that, barring strong feedback effects, most surfaces are heavily dominated by either water or land. Why is the Earth so finely poised? To address this question, we construct a simple model for the selection bias that would arise within an ensemble of surface conditions. Based on the Earth's ocean coverage of 71 per cent, we find substantial evidence (Bayes factor K ≃ 6) supporting the hypothesis that anthropic selection effects are at work. Furthermore, due to the Earth's proximity to the waterworld limit, this model predicts that most habitable planets are dominated by oceans spanning over 90 per cent of their surface area (95 per cent credible interval). This scenario, in which the Earth has a much greater land area than most habitable planets, is consistent with results from numerical simulations and could help explain the apparently low-mass transition in the mass-radius relation.

Fit for work? Evaluation of a workshop for rheumatology teams.

PubMed

Cohen, D; Khan, S; Marfell, N

2016-06-01

People with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) may rapidly cease work prematurely due to ill-health. A recent survey noted that a quarter of respondents with RA experienced job loss within a year of diagnosis and 50% stopped work within 6 years. To develop and pilot workshops to increase the knowledge, skills and confidence of rheumatology team members to support work-related issues in outpatient clinics. A 3-h interactive workshop, informed by rheumatology experts and the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) National Education Programme (NEP) about work and health, was developed to address both knowledge and skills in the management of health and work consultations in an outpatient setting. Questionnaires were developed for use pre- and immediately post-workshop, with questions that focused on the confidence of delegates in managing these discussions and the importance they placed upon them. Ninety-nine participants attended five workshops throughout the UK between 2013 and 2104. Seventy-three per cent (72) completed the post-workshop questionnaire. Eighty-nine per cent found the workshop useful or very useful, 88% found it relevant or very relevant and 79% responded that it had an impact or a considerable impact on their practice. Wilcoxon matched pairs signed rank tests were carried out that showed an overall increase in confidence after training. The results suggest that the workshop was both relevant and useful to participants and had an impact on their practice. This was true for all specialities. The workshops also highlighted participants' desire to understand how to use the 'fit note' to enhance their patient management. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Kuiper belt analogues in nearby M-type planet-host systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, G. M.; Bryden, G.; Ardila, D.; Eiroa, C.; Lestrade, J.-F.; Marshall, J. P.; Matthews, B. C.; Moro-Martin, A.; Wyatt, M. C.

2018-06-01

We present the results of a Herschel survey of 21 late-type stars that host planets discovered by the radial velocity technique. The aims were to discover new discs in these systems and to search for any correlation between planet presence and disc properties. In addition to the known disc around GJ 581, we report the discovery of two new discs, in the GJ 433 and GJ 649 systems. Our sample therefore yields a disc detection rate of 14 per cent, higher than the detection rate of 1.2 per cent among our control sample of DEBRIS M-type stars with 98 per cent confidence. Further analysis however shows that the disc sensitivity in the control sample is about a factor of two lower in fractional luminosity than for our survey, lowering the significance of any correlation between planet presence and disc brightness below 98 per cent. In terms of their specific architectures, the disc around GJ 433 lies at a radius somewhere between 1 and 30 au. The disc around GJ 649 lies somewhere between 6 and 30 au, but is marginally resolved and appears more consistent with an edge-on inclination. In both cases the discs probably lie well beyond where the known planets reside (0.06-1.1 au), but the lack of radial velocity sensitivity at larger separations allows for unseen Saturn-mass planets to orbit out to ˜5 au, and more massive planets beyond 5 au. The layout of these M-type systems appears similar to Sun-like star + disc systems with low-mass planets.

Characterization of Myocardial Repolarization Reserve in Adolescent Females With Anorexia Nervosa.

PubMed

Padfield, Gareth J; Escudero, Carolina A; DeSouza, Astrid M; Steinberg, Christian; Gibbs, Karen; Puyat, Joseph H; Lam, Pei Yoong; Sanatani, Shubhayan; Sherwin, Elizabeth; Potts, James E; Sandor, George; Krahn, Andrew D

2016-02-09

Patients with anorexia nervosa exhibit abnormal myocardial repolarization and are susceptible to sudden cardiac death. Exercise testing is useful in unmasking QT prolongation in disorders associated with abnormal repolarization. We characterized QT adaptation during exercise in anorexia. Sixty-one adolescent female patients with anorexia nervosa and 45 age- and sex-matched healthy volunteers performed symptom-limited cycle ergometry during 12-lead ECG monitoring. Changes in the QT interval during exercise were measured, and QT/RR-interval slopes were determined by using mixed-effects regression modeling. Patients had significantly lower body mass index than controls; however, resting heart rates and QT/QTc intervals were similar at baseline. Patients had shorter exercise times (13.7±4.5 versus 20.6±4.5 minutes; P<0.001) and lower peak heart rates (159±20 versus 184±9 beats/min; P<0.001). The mean QTc intervals were longer at peak exercise in patients (442±29 versus 422±19 ms; P<0.001). During submaximal exertion at comparable heart rates (114±6 versus 115±11 beats/min; P=0.54), the QTc interval had prolonged significantly more in patients than controls (37±28 versus 24±25 ms; P<0.016). The RR/QT slope, best described by a curvilinear relationship, was more gradual in patients than in controls (13.4; 95% confidence interval, 12.8-13.9 versus 15.8; 95% confidence interval, 15.3-16.4 ms QT change per 10% change in RR interval; P<0.001) and steepest in patients within the highest body mass index tertile versus the lowest (13.9; 95% confidence interval, 12.9-14.9 versus 12.3; 95% confidence interval, 11.3-13.3; P=0.026). Despite the absence of manifest QT prolongation, adolescent anorexic females have impaired repolarization reserve in comparison with healthy controls. Further study may identify impaired QT dynamics as a risk factor for arrhythmias in anorexia nervosa. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Accuracy assessment of percent canopy cover, cover type, and size class

Treesearch

H. T. Schreuder; S. Bain; R. C. Czaplewski

2003-01-01

Truth for vegetation cover percent and type is obtained from very large-scale photography (VLSP), stand structure as measured by size classes, and vegetation types from a combination of VLSP and ground sampling. We recommend using the Kappa statistic with bootstrap confidence intervals for overall accuracy, and similarly bootstrap confidence intervals for percent...

Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Compliance and Clinical Significance in the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odgaard, Eric C.; Fowler, Robert L.

2010-01-01

Objective: In 2005, the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology" ("JCCP") became the first American Psychological Association (APA) journal to require statistical measures of clinical significance, plus effect sizes (ESs) and associated confidence intervals (CIs), for primary outcomes (La Greca, 2005). As this represents the single largest…

Optimal and Most Exact Confidence Intervals for Person Parameters in Item Response Theory Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doebler, Anna; Doebler, Philipp; Holling, Heinz

2013-01-01

The common way to calculate confidence intervals for item response theory models is to assume that the standardized maximum likelihood estimator for the person parameter [theta] is normally distributed. However, this approximation is often inadequate for short and medium test lengths. As a result, the coverage probabilities fall below the given…

SIMREL: Software for Coefficient Alpha and Its Confidence Intervals with Monte Carlo Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yurdugul, Halil

2009-01-01

This article describes SIMREL, a software program designed for the simulation of alpha coefficients and the estimation of its confidence intervals. SIMREL runs on two alternatives. In the first one, if SIMREL is run for a single data file, it performs descriptive statistics, principal components analysis, and variance analysis of the item scores…

Performing Contrast Analysis in Factorial Designs: From NHST to Confidence Intervals and Beyond

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiens, Stefan; Nilsson, Mats E.

2017-01-01

Because of the continuing debates about statistics, many researchers may feel confused about how to analyze and interpret data. Current guidelines in psychology advocate the use of effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs). However, researchers may be unsure about how to extract effect sizes from factorial designs. Contrast analysis is helpful…

The role for peer-assisted ultrasound teaching in medical school.

PubMed

Dickerson, Jonathan; Paul, Katie; Vila, Pierre; Whiticar, Rebecca

2017-06-01

Bedside ultrasonography has an increasing role in medicine yet medical students have limited exposure. Although countless hours are devoted to plain radiograph and electrocardiogram (ECG) interpretation, ultrasound is frequently glossed over. Yet this imaging modality could enhance students' understanding of anatomy, physiology and pathology, and may increase their integration into hospital teams. We aimed to investigate whether a peer-assisted ultrasound course has a place within the undergraduate medical curriculum. We describe the implementation of a course and discuss its acceptability and utility in student education. Bedside ultrasonography has an increasing role in medicine yet medical students have limited exposure METHODS: Following consultation with the medical school, an improved ultrasonography course was developed with expert guidance from an ultrasonographer and with new equipment. Sessions involved peer-tutors teaching ultrasonography techniques to medical students during emergency medicine placements. Tutees completed questionnaires to assess the quality and perceived benefits of the course and of learning ultrasonography. Both quantitative and thematic analyses of the responses were conducted by the authors. Over a period of 8 months, 105 medical students received teaching across four sessions. A total of 103 students (98%) returned questionnaires on their evaluation of the course and tutors, and on their confidence in using ultrasound. Ninety-eight per cent felt that the teaching was well delivered, 100 per cent felt that their knowledge of ultrasound had improved and 100 per cent would recommend the course. The peer-assisted ultrasound course described here enabled the majority of students to feel confident gaining elementary ultrasound views, and performing abdominal aneurysm screening and trauma assessments: techniques that they could hopefully put to use during their placements. The peer-assisted model has an acceptable role in teaching emerging clinical skills to medical students. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and The Association for the Study of Medical Education.

Implications of PSR J0737-3039B for the Galactic NS-NS binary merger rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Chunglee; Perera, Benetge Bhakthi Pranama; McLaughlin, Maura A.

2015-03-01

The Double Pulsar (PSR J0737-3039) is the only neutron star-neutron star (NS-NS) binary in which both NSs have been detectable as radio pulsars. The Double Pulsar has been assumed to dominate the Galactic NS-NS binary merger rate R_g among all known systems, solely based on the properties of the first-born, recycled pulsar (PSR J0737-3039A, or A) with an assumption for the beaming correction factor of 6. In this work, we carefully correct observational biases for the second-born, non-recycled pulsar (PSR J0737-0737B, or B) and estimate the contribution from the Double Pulsar on R_g using constraints available from both A and B. Observational constraints from the B pulsar favour a small beaming correction factor for A (˜2), which is consistent with a bipolar model. Considering known NS-NS binaries with the best observational constraints, including both A and B, we obtain R_g=21_{-14}^{+28} Myr-1 at 95 per cent confidence from our reference model. We expect the detection rate of gravitational waves from NS-NS inspirals for the advanced ground-based gravitational-wave detectors is to be 8^{+10}_{-5} yr-1 at 95 per cent confidence. Within several years, gravitational-wave detections relevant to NS-NS inspirals will provide us useful information to improve pulsar population models.

Frequency of depression in type 2 diabetes mellitus and an analysis of predictive factors.

PubMed

Arshad, Abdul Rehman; Alvi, Kamran Yousaf

2016-04-01

To determine frequency of depression in patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 and to identify predictive factors. The observational study was carried out at 1 Mountain Medical Battalion, Bagh, Azad Kashmir, Pakistan, from June 2013 to May 2014, and comprised type 2 diabetic patients who were not using anti-depressants and did not have history of other psychiatric illnesses. Demographic data, duration of diabetes, presence of hypertension and type of treatment were recorded and body mass index was calculated. Patient Health Questionnaire-9, translated into Urdu, was administered during face-to-face interviews. Scores >5 indicated depression, which was classified into different grades of severity using standard cut-off values. Of the 133 patients, 51(38.35%) were depressed. Depression was mild in 34(26%), moderate in 12(9.6%), moderately severe in 4(2.9%) and severe in 1(0.7%) patient. On univariate binary logistic regression, female gender (odds ratio=3.07; 95% confidence interval = 1.43, 6.59), lesser education (odds ratio = 0.90; 95% confidence interval 0.84, 0.97) shorter duration of diabetes (odds ratio=0.87; 95% confidence interval = 0.80, 0.96) and higher body mass index (odds ratio=1.41; 95% confidence interval = 1.05, 1.25) were significantly associated with depression. Only shorter duration of diabetes (odds ratio=0.90; 95% confidence interval = 0.82, 0.99) remained significant after adjustment for confounders. Age, level of education, glycaemic control and type of treatment did not predict depression. A significant proportion of type 2 diabetics were depressed. Shorter duration of diabetes reliably predicted depression in these patients.

EXACT DISTRIBUTIONS OF INTRACLASS CORRELATION AND CRONBACH'S ALPHA WITH GAUSSIAN DATA AND GENERAL COVARIANCE.

PubMed

Kistner, Emily O; Muller, Keith E

2004-09-01

Intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are widely used to describe reliability of tests and measurements. Even with Gaussian data, exact distributions are known only for compound symmetric covariance (equal variances and equal correlations). Recently, large sample Gaussian approximations were derived for the distribution functions. New exact results allow calculating the exact distribution function and other properties of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha, for Gaussian data with any covariance pattern, not just compound symmetry. Probabilities are computed in terms of the distribution function of a weighted sum of independent chi-square random variables. New F approximations for the distribution functions of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are much simpler and faster to compute than the exact forms. Assuming the covariance matrix is known, the approximations typically provide sufficient accuracy, even with as few as ten observations. Either the exact or approximate distributions may be used to create confidence intervals around an estimate of reliability. Monte Carlo simulations led to a number of conclusions. Correctly assuming that the covariance matrix is compound symmetric leads to accurate confidence intervals, as was expected from previously known results. However, assuming and estimating a general covariance matrix produces somewhat optimistically narrow confidence intervals with 10 observations. Increasing sample size to 100 gives essentially unbiased coverage. Incorrectly assuming compound symmetry leads to pessimistically large confidence intervals, with pessimism increasing with sample size. In contrast, incorrectly assuming general covariance introduces only a modest optimistic bias in small samples. Hence the new methods seem preferable for creating confidence intervals, except when compound symmetry definitely holds.

A prospective observational cohort study to assess the incidence of acute otitis media among children 0-5 years of age in Southern Brazil.

PubMed

Lanzieri, Tatiana M; Cunha, Clóvis Arns da; Cunha, Rejane B; Arguello, D Fermin; Devadiga, Raghavendra; Sanchez, Nervo; Barria, Eduardo Ortega

To estimate acute otitis media incidence among young children and impact on quality of life of parents/caregivers in a southern Brazilian city. Prospective cohort study including children 0-5 years of age registered at a private pediatric practice. Acute otitis media episodes diagnosed by a pediatrician and impact on quality of life of parents/caregivers were assessed during a 12-month follow-up. During September 2008-March 2010, of 1,136 children enrolled in the study, 1074 (95%) were followed: 55.0% were ≤2 years of age, 52.3% males, 94.7% white, and 69.2% had previously received pneumococcal vaccine in private clinics. Acute otitis media incidence per 1000 person-years was 95.7 (95% confidence interval: 77.2-117.4) overall, 105.5 (95% confidence interval: 78.3-139.0) in children ≤2 years of age and 63.6 (95% confidence interval: 43.2-90.3) in children 3-5 years of age. Acute otitis media incidence per 1000 person-years was 86.3 (95% confidence interval: 65.5-111.5) and 117.1 (95% confidence interval: 80.1-165.3) among vaccinated and unvaccinated children, respectively. Nearly 68.9% of parents reported worsening of their overall quality of life. Acute otitis media incidence among unvaccinated children in our study may be useful as baseline data to assess impact of pneumococcal vaccine introduction in the Brazilian National Immunization Program in April 2010. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Infectologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for gametocyte carriage in uncomplicated falciparum malaria in children before and after artemisinin-based combination treatments.

PubMed

Sowunmi, Akintunde; Okuboyejo, Titilope M; Gbotosho, Grace O; Happi, Christian T

2011-01-01

Artemisinin-based combination treatments (ACTs) are the recommended first-line antimalarials globally, but their influence on the risk factors associated with gametocyte carriage has had little evaluation in endemic areas. The risk factors associated with gametocytaemia at presentation and after ACTs were evaluated in 835 children assigned to artesunate, artesunate-amodiaquine, artesunate-mefloquine or artemether-lumefantrine. Gametocyte carriage at enrolment was 8.4%. During follow-up, 24 patients (2.8%) developed gametocytaemia, which in 83% (20 patients) had developed by day 7 following treatment. In a multiple regression model, 2 factors were independent risk factors for the presence of gametocytaemia at enrolment, namely age <3 years (adjusted odds ratio 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.01-4.05; p = 0.04) and enrolment before 2009 (adjusted odds ratio 4.2, 95% confidence interval 2.09-8.44; p < 0.001). Haematocrit <25% and parasitaemia <50,000/μl blood were associated with an increased risk of gametocytaemia. Following treatment, 3 factors were independent risk factors for gametocytaemia, namely gametocytaemia at enrolment (adjusted odds ratio 46.39, 95% confidence interval 22.3-96.46; p < 0.0001) and treatment with artesunate (adjusted odds ratio 6.74, 95% confidence interval 1.79-25.27; p = 0.005) or artesunate-mefloquine (adjusted odds ratio 9.66, 95% confidence interval 2.87-32.46; p < 0.0.0001) relative to other ACTs. ACTs modified the risk factors associated with gametocyte carriage after use. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Weighted regression analysis and interval estimators

Treesearch

Donald W. Seegrist

1974-01-01

A method for deriving the weighted least squares estimators for the parameters of a multiple regression model. Confidence intervals for expected values, and prediction intervals for the means of future samples are given.

Willingness to pay for methadone maintenance treatment in Vietnamese epicentres of injection-drug-driven HIV infection

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Abstract Objective Willingness to pay for methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) in three Vietnamese epicentres of injection-drug-driven human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection was assessed. Methods A convenience sample of 1016 patients receiving HIV treatment in seven clinics was enrolled during 2012. Contingent valuation was used to assess willingness to pay. Interviewers reviewed adverse consequences of injection drug use and the benefits of MMT. Interviewers then described the government’s plan to scale up MMT and the financial barriers to scale-up. Willingness to pay was assessed using double-bounded binary questions and a follow-up open-ended question. Point and interval data models were used to estimate maximum willingness to pay. Findings A total of 548 non-drug-users and 468 injection drug users were enrolled; 988 were willing to pay for MMT. Monthly mean willingness to pay among non-drug-users, 347 drug users not receiving MMT and 121 drug users receiving MMT was 10.7 United States dollars [US$] (35.7% of treatment costs), US$ 21.1 (70.3%) and US$ 26.2 (87.3%), respectively (mean: US$ 15.9; 95% confidence interval, CI: 13.6–18.1). Fifty per cent of drug users were willing to pay 50% of MMT costs. Residence in households with low monthly per capita income and poor health status predicted willingness to pay less among drug users; educational level, employment status, health status and current antiretroviral therapy receipt predicted willingness to pay less among non-drug-users. Conclusion Willingness to pay for MMT was very high, supporting implementation of a co-payment programme. PMID:23825874

Intraclass Correlation Coefficients in Hierarchical Design Studies with Discrete Response Variables: A Note on a Direct Interval Estimation Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

2015-01-01

A latent variable modeling procedure that can be used to evaluate intraclass correlation coefficients in two-level settings with discrete response variables is discussed. The approach is readily applied when the purpose is to furnish confidence intervals at prespecified confidence levels for these coefficients in setups with binary or ordinal…

Monte Carlo simulation of parameter confidence intervals for non-linear regression analysis of biological data using Microsoft Excel.

PubMed

Lambert, Ronald J W; Mytilinaios, Ioannis; Maitland, Luke; Brown, Angus M

2012-08-01

This study describes a method to obtain parameter confidence intervals from the fitting of non-linear functions to experimental data, using the SOLVER and Analysis ToolPaK Add-In of the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Previously we have shown that Excel can fit complex multiple functions to biological data, obtaining values equivalent to those returned by more specialized statistical or mathematical software. However, a disadvantage of using the Excel method was the inability to return confidence intervals for the computed parameters or the correlations between them. Using a simple Monte-Carlo procedure within the Excel spreadsheet (without recourse to programming), SOLVER can provide parameter estimates (up to 200 at a time) for multiple 'virtual' data sets, from which the required confidence intervals and correlation coefficients can be obtained. The general utility of the method is exemplified by applying it to the analysis of the growth of Listeria monocytogenes, the growth inhibition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa by chlorhexidine and the further analysis of the electrophysiological data from the compound action potential of the rodent optic nerve. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influences of the Tamarisk Leaf Beetle (Diorhabda carinulata) on the diet of insectivorous birds along the Dolores River in Southwestern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Puckett, Sarah L.; van Riper, Charles

2014-01-01

We examined the effects of a biologic control agent, the tamarisk leaf beetle (Diorhabda carinulata), on native avifauna in southwestern Colorado, specifically, addressing whether and to what degree birds eat tamarisk leaf beetles. In 2010, we documented avian foraging behavior, characterized the arthropod community, sampled bird diets, and undertook an experiment to determine whether tamarisk leaf beetles are palatable to birds. We observed that tamarisk leaf beetles compose 24.0 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 19.9-27.4 percent) and 35.4 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 32.4-45.1 percent) of arthropod abundance and biomass in the study area, respectively. Birds ate few tamarisk leaf beetles, despite a superabundance of D. carinulata in the environment. The frequency of occurrence of tamarisk leaf beetles in bird diets was 2.1 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 1.3- 2.9 percent) by abundance and 3.4 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 2.6-4.2 percent) by biomass. Thus, tamarisk leaf beetles probably do not contribute significantly to the diets of birds in areas where biologic control of tamarisk is being applied.

Post-traumatic stress disorder in adolescents after a hurricane.

PubMed

Garrison, C Z; Weinrich, M W; Hardin, S B; Weinrich, S; Wang, L

1993-10-01

A school-based study conducted in 1990, 1 year after Hurricane Hugo, investigated the frequency and correlates of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in 1,264 adolescents aged 11-17 years residing in selected South Carolina communities. Data were collected via a 174-item self-administered questionnaire that included a PTSD symptom scale. A computer algorithm that applied decision rules of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, Revised to the symptoms reported was used to assign a diagnosis of PTSD and to designate the number of individuals who met the reexperiencing (20%), avoidance (9%), and arousal (18%) criteria. Rates of PTSD were lowest in black males (1.5%) and higher, but similar, in the remaining groups (3.8-6.2%). Results from a multivariable logistic model indicated that exposure to the hurricane (odds ratio (OR) = 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.13-1.41), experiencing other violent traumatic events (OR = 2.46, 95% confidence interval 1.75-3.44), being white (OR = 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.12-3.69) and being female (OR = 2.17, 95% confidence interval 1.15-4.10) were significant correlates of PTSD.

Bendectin and human congenital malformations.

PubMed

Shiono, P H; Klebanoff, M A

1989-08-01

The relationship between Bendectin exposure during the first trimester of pregnancy and the occurrence of congenital malformations was prospectively studied in 31,564 newborns registered in the Northern California Kaiser Permanente Birth Defects Study. The odds ratio for any major malformation and Bendectin use was 1.0 (95% confidence interval 0.8-1.4). There were 58 categories of congenital malformations; three of them were statistically associated with Bendectin exposure (microcephaly--odds ratio = 5.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.8-15.6; congenital cataract--odds ratio = 5.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.2-24.3; lung malformations (ICD-8 codes 484.4-484.8)--odds ratio = 4.6, 95% confidence interval = 1.9-10.9). This is exactly the number of associations that would be expected by chance. An independent study (the Collaborative Perinatal Project) was used to determine whether vomiting during pregnancy in the absence of Bendectin use was associated with these three malformations. Two of the three (microcephaly and cataract) had strong positive associations with vomiting in the absence of Bendectin use. We conclude that there is no increase in the overall rate of major malformations after exposure to Bendectin and that the three associations found between Bendectin and individual malformations are unlikely to be causal.

Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, Timothy A.; Lane, William L.; Stedinger, Jery R.

2001-01-01

Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient “weighting” procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed‐form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA‐based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood‐quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25‐ to 100‐year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

Associations between maternal periconceptional exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke and major birth defects.

PubMed

Hoyt, Adrienne T; Canfield, Mark A; Romitti, Paul A; Botto, Lorenzo D; Anderka, Marlene T; Krikov, Sergey V; Tarpey, Morgan K; Feldkamp, Marcia L

2016-11-01

While associations between secondhand smoke and a few birth defects (namely, oral clefts and neural tube defects) have been noted in the scientific literature, to our knowledge, there is no single or comprehensive source of population-based information on its associations with a range of birth defects among nonsmoking mothers. We utilized data from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, a large population-based multisite case-control study, to examine associations between maternal reports of periconceptional exposure to secondhand smoke in the household or workplace/school and major birth defects. The multisite National Birth Defects Prevention Study is the largest case-control study of birth defects to date in the United States. We selected cases from birth defect groups having >100 total cases, as well as all nonmalformed controls (10,200), from delivery years 1997 through 2009; 44 birth defects were examined. After excluding cases and controls from multiple births and whose mothers reported active smoking or pregestational diabetes, we analyzed data on periconceptional secondhand smoke exposure-encompassing the period 1 month prior to conception through the first trimester. For the birth defect craniosynostosis, we additionally examined the effect of exposure in the second and third trimesters as well due to the potential sensitivity to teratogens for this defect throughout pregnancy. Covariates included in all final models of birth defects with ≥5 exposed mothers were study site, previous live births, time between estimated date of delivery and interview date, maternal age at estimated date of delivery, race/ethnicity, education, body mass index, nativity, household income divided by number of people supported by this income, periconceptional alcohol consumption, and folic acid supplementation. For each birth defect examined, we used logistic regression analyses to estimate both crude and adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for both isolated and total case groups for various sources of exposure (household only; workplace/school only; household and workplace/school; household or workplace/school). The prevalence of secondhand smoke exposure only across all sources ranged from 12.9-27.8% for cases and 14.5-15.8% for controls. The adjusted odds ratios for any vs no secondhand smoke exposure in the household or workplace/school and isolated birth defects were significantly elevated for neural tube defects (anencephaly: adjusted odds ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.25; and spina bifida: adjusted odds ratio, 1.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.86); orofacial clefts (cleft lip without cleft palate: adjusted odds ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.81; cleft lip with or without cleft palate: adjusted odds ratio, 1.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.46; cleft palate alone: adjusted odds ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.63); bilateral renal agenesis (adjusted odds ratio, 1.99; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.75); amniotic band syndrome-limb body wall complex (adjusted odds ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-2.51); and atrial septal defects, secundum (adjusted odds ratio, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.72). There were no significant inverse associations observed. Additional studies replicating the findings are needed to better understand the moderate positive associations observed between periconceptional secondhand smoke and several birth defects in this analysis. Increased odds ratios resulting from chance (eg, multiple comparisons) or recall bias cannot be ruled out. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New estimates of elasticity of demand for healthcare in rural China.

PubMed

Zhou, Zhongliang; Su, Yanfang; Gao, Jianmin; Xu, Ling; Zhang, Yaoguang

2011-12-01

Only limited empirical studies reported own-price elasticity of demand for health care in rural China. Neither research on income elasticity of demand for health care nor cross-price elasticity of demand for inpatient versus outpatient services in rural China has been reported. However, elasticity of demand is informative to evaluate current policy and to guide further policy making. Our study contributes to the literature by estimating three elasticities (i.e., own-price elasticity, cross-price elasticity, and income elasticity of demand for health care based on nationwide-representative data. We aim to answer three empirical questions with regard to health expenditure in rural China: (1) Which service is more sensitive to price change, outpatient or inpatient service? (2) Is outpatient service a substitute or complement to inpatient service? and (3) Does demand for inpatient services grow faster than demand for outpatient services with income growth? Based on data from a National Health Services Survey, a Probit regression model with probability of outpatient visit and probability of inpatient visit as dependent variables and a zero-truncated negative binomial regression model with outpatient visits as dependent variable were constructed to isolate the effects of price and income on demand for health care. Both pooled and separated regressions for 2003 and 2008 were conducted with tests of robustness. Own-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are -0.519 [95% confidence interval (-0.703, -0.336)], -0.547 [95% confidence interval (-0.747, -0.347)] and -0.372 [95% confidence interval (-0.517, -0.226)], respectively. Cross-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are 0.073 [95% confidence interval (-0.176, 0.322)], 0.308 [95% confidence interval (0.087, 0.528)], and 0.059 [95% confidence interval (-0.085, 0.204)], respectively. Income elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are 0.098 [95% confidence interval (0.018, 0.178)], 0.136 [95% confidence interval (0.028, 0.245)] and 0.521 [95% confidence interval (0.438, 0.605)], respectively. The aforementioned results are in 2008, which hold similar pattern as results in 2003 as well as results from pooled data of two periods. First, no significant difference is detected between sensitivity of outpatient services and sensitivity of inpatient services, responding to own-price change. Second, inpatient services are substitutes to outpatient services. Third, the growth of inpatient services is faster than the growth in outpatient services in response to income growth. The major findings from this paper suggest refining insurance policy in rural China. First, from a cost-effectiveness perspective, changing outpatient price is at least as effective as changing inpatient price to adjust demand of health care. Second, the current national guideline of healthcare reform to increase the reimbursement rate for inpatient services will crowd out outpatient services; however, we have no evidence about the change in demand for inpatient service if insurance covers outpatient services. Third, a referral system and gate-keeping system should be established to guide rural patients to utilize outpatient service. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Confidence limit calculation for antidotal potency ratio derived from lethal dose 50

PubMed Central

Manage, Ananda; Petrikovics, Ilona

2013-01-01

AIM: To describe confidence interval calculation for antidotal potency ratios using bootstrap method. METHODS: We can easily adapt the nonparametric bootstrap method which was invented by Efron to construct confidence intervals in such situations like this. The bootstrap method is a resampling method in which the bootstrap samples are obtained by resampling from the original sample. RESULTS: The described confidence interval calculation using bootstrap method does not require the sampling distribution antidotal potency ratio. This can serve as a substantial help for toxicologists, who are directed to employ the Dixon up-and-down method with the application of lower number of animals to determine lethal dose 50 values for characterizing the investigated toxic molecules and eventually for characterizing the antidotal protections by the test antidotal systems. CONCLUSION: The described method can serve as a useful tool in various other applications. Simplicity of the method makes it easier to do the calculation using most of the programming software packages. PMID:25237618

Intonation in unaccompanied singing: accuracy, drift, and a model of reference pitch memory.

PubMed

Mauch, Matthias; Frieler, Klaus; Dixon, Simon

2014-07-01

This paper presents a study on intonation and intonation drift in unaccompanied singing, and proposes a simple model of reference pitch memory that accounts for many of the effects observed. Singing experiments were conducted with 24 singers of varying ability under three conditions (Normal, Masked, Imagined). Over the duration of a recording, ∼50 s, a median absolute intonation drift of 11 cents was observed. While smaller than the median note error (19 cents), drift was significant in 22% of recordings. Drift magnitude did not correlate with other measures of singing accuracy, singing experience, or the presence of conditions tested. Furthermore, it is shown that neither a static intonation memory model nor a memoryless interval-based intonation model can account for the accuracy and drift behavior observed. The proposed causal model provides a better explanation as it treats the reference pitch as a changing latent variable.

Mass driver retrievals of earth-approaching asteroids. [earth orbit capture for mining purposes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oleary, B.

1977-01-01

Mass driver tugs can be designed to move Apollo and Amor asteroids at opportunities of low velocity increment to the vicinity of the earth. The cost of transferring asteroids through a velocity interval of 3 km/sec by mass driver is about 16 cents per kilogram amortized over 10 years, about ten times less than that required to retrieve lunar resources during the early phases of a program of space manufacturing. About 22 per cent of a 200-meter diameter asteroid could be transferred to high earth orbit by an automated 100 megawatt solar-powered mass driver in a period of five years for a cost of approximately $1 billion. Estimates of the total investment of a space manufacturing program could be reduced twofold by using asteroidal instead of lunar resources; such a program could begin several years sooner with minimal concurrent development if asteroidal search programs and mass driver development are immediately accelerated.

Pulmonary disease in cystic fibrosis: assessment with chest CT at chest radiography dose levels.

PubMed

Ernst, Caroline W; Basten, Ines A; Ilsen, Bart; Buls, Nico; Van Gompel, Gert; De Wachter, Elke; Nieboer, Koenraad H; Verhelle, Filip; Malfroot, Anne; Coomans, Danny; De Maeseneer, Michel; de Mey, Johan

2014-11-01

To investigate a computed tomographic (CT) protocol with iterative reconstruction at conventional radiography dose levels for the assessment of structural lung abnormalities in patients with cystic fibrosis ( CF cystic fibrosis ). In this institutional review board-approved study, 38 patients with CF cystic fibrosis (age range, 6-58 years; 21 patients <18 years and 17 patients >18 years) underwent investigative CT (at minimal exposure settings combined with iterative reconstruction) as a replacement of yearly follow-up posteroanterior chest radiography. Verbal informed consent was obtained from all patients or their parents. CT images were randomized and rated independently by two radiologists with use of the Bhalla scoring system. In addition, mosaic perfusion was evaluated. As reference, the previous available conventional chest CT scan was used. Differences in Bhalla scores were assessed with the χ(2) test and intraclass correlation coefficients ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient s). Radiation doses for CT and radiography were assessed for adults (>18 years) and children (<18 years) separately by using technical dose descriptors and estimated effective dose. Differences in dose were assessed with the Mann-Whitney U test. The median effective dose for the investigative protocol was 0.04 mSv (95% confidence interval [ CI confidence interval ]: 0.034 mSv, 0.10 mSv) for children and 0.05 mSv (95% CI confidence interval : 0.04 mSv, 0.08 mSv) for adults. These doses were much lower than those with conventional CT (median: 0.52 mSv [95% CI confidence interval : 0.31 mSv, 3.90 mSv] for children and 1.12 mSv [95% CI confidence interval : 0.57 mSv, 3.15 mSv] for adults) and of the same order of magnitude as those for conventional radiography (median: 0.012 mSv [95% CI confidence interval : 0.006 mSv, 0.022 mSv] for children and 0.012 mSv [95% CI confidence interval : 0.005 mSv, 0.031 mSv] for adults). All images were rated at least as diagnostically acceptable. Very good agreement was found in overall Bhalla score ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient , 0.96) with regard to the severity of bronchiectasis ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient , 0.87) and sacculations and abscesses ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient , 0.84). Interobserver agreement was excellent ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient , 0.86-1). For patients with CF cystic fibrosis , a dedicated chest CT protocol can replace the two yearly follow-up chest radiographic examinations without major dose penalty and with similar diagnostic quality compared with conventional CT.

Nondepressive Psychosocial Factors and CKD Outcomes in Black Americans.

PubMed

Lunyera, Joseph; Davenport, Clemontina A; Bhavsar, Nrupen A; Sims, Mario; Scialla, Julia; Pendergast, Jane; Hall, Rasheeda; Tyson, Crystal C; Russell, Jennifer St Clair; Wang, Wei; Correa, Adolfo; Boulware, L Ebony; Diamantidis, Clarissa J

2018-02-07

Established risk factors for CKD do not fully account for risk of CKD in black Americans. We studied the association of nondepressive psychosocial factors with risk of CKD in the Jackson Heart Study. We used principal component analysis to identify underlying constructs from 12 psychosocial baseline variables (perceived daily, lifetime, and burden of lifetime discrimination; stress; anger in; anger out; hostility; pessimism; John Henryism; spirituality; perceived social status; and social support). Using multivariable models adjusted for demographics and comorbidity, we examined the association of psychosocial variables with baseline CKD prevalence, eGFR decline, and incident CKD during follow-up. Of 3390 (64%) Jackson Heart Study participants with the required data, 656 (19%) had prevalent CKD. Those with CKD (versus no CKD) had lower perceived daily (mean [SD] score =7.6 [8.5] versus 9.7 [9.0]) and lifetime discrimination (2.5 [2.0] versus 3.1 [2.2]), lower perceived stress (4.2 [4.0] versus 5.2 [4.4]), higher hostility (12.1 [5.2] versus 11.5 [4.8]), higher John Henryism (30.0 [4.8] versus 29.7 [4.4]), and higher pessimism (2.3 [2.2] versus 2.0 [2.1]; all P <0.05). Principal component analysis identified three factors from the 12 psychosocial variables: factor 1, life stressors (perceived discrimination, stress); factor 2, moods (anger, hostility); and, factor 3, coping strategies (John Henryism, spirituality, social status, social support). After adjustments, factor 1 (life stressors) was negatively associated with prevalent CKD at baseline among women only: odds ratio, 0.76 (95% confidence interval, 0.65 to 0.89). After a median follow-up of 8 years, identified psychosocial factors were not significantly associated with eGFR decline (life stressors: β =0.08; 95% confidence interval, -0.02 to 0.17; moods: β =0.03; 95% confidence interval, -0.06 to 0.13; coping: β =-0.02; 95% confidence interval, -0.12 to 0.08) or incident CKD (life stressors: odds ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 0.88 to 1.29; moods: odds ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.84 to 1.24; coping: odds ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.75 to 1.11). Greater life stressors were associated with lower prevalence of CKD at baseline in the Jackson Heart Study. However, psychosocial factors were not associated with risk of CKD over a median follow-up of 8 years. This article contains a podcast at https://www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2018_01_03_CJASNPodcast_18_2_L.mp3. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Confidence Intervals for the Probability of Superiority Effect Size Measure and the Area under a Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruscio, John; Mullen, Tara

2012-01-01

It is good scientific practice to the report an appropriate estimate of effect size and a confidence interval (CI) to indicate the precision with which a population effect was estimated. For comparisons of 2 independent groups, a probability-based effect size estimator (A) that is equal to the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve…

The bacterial meningitis score to distinguish bacterial from aseptic meningitis in children from Sao Paulo, Brazil.

PubMed

Mekitarian Filho, Eduardo; Horita, Sérgio Massaru; Gilio, Alfredo Elias; Alves, Anna Cláudia Dominguez; Nigrovic, Lise E

2013-09-01

In a retrospective cohort of 494 children with meningitis in Sao Paulo, Brazil, the Bacterial Meningitis Score identified all the children with bacterial meningitis (sensitivity 100%, 95% confidence interval: 92-100% and negative predictive value 100%, 95% confidence interval: 98-100%). Addition of cerebrospinal fluid lactate to the score did not improve clinical prediction rule performance.

Spacecraft utility and the development of confidence intervals for criticality of anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, R. E.

1980-01-01

The concept of spacecraft utility, a measure of its performance in orbit, is discussed and its formulation is described. Performance is defined in terms of the malfunctions that occur and the criticality to the mission of these malfunctions. Different approaches to establishing average or expected values of criticality are discussed and confidence intervals are developed for parameters used in the computation of utility.

Prevalence Estimates of Complicated Syphilis.

PubMed

Dombrowski, Julia C; Pedersen, Rolf; Marra, Christina M; Kerani, Roxanne P; Golden, Matthew R

2015-12-01

We reviewed 68 cases of possible neurosyphilis among 573 syphilis cases in King County, WA, from 3rd January 2012 to 30th September 2013; 7.9% (95% confidence interval, 5.8%-10.5%) had vision or hearing changes, and 3.5% (95% confidence interval, 2.2%-5.4%) had both symptoms and objective confirmation of complicated syphilis with either abnormal cerebrospinal fluid or an abnormal ophthalmologic examination.

Speech and language adverse effects after thalamotomy and deep brain stimulation in patients with movement disorders: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Alomar, Soha; King, Nicolas K K; Tam, Joseph; Bari, Ausaf A; Hamani, Clement; Lozano, Andres M

2017-01-01

The thalamus has been a surgical target for the treatment of various movement disorders. Commonly used therapeutic modalities include ablative and nonablative procedures. A major clinical side effect of thalamic surgery is the appearance of speech problems. This review summarizes the data on the development of speech problems after thalamic surgery. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed using nine databases, including Medline, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. We also checked for articles by searching citing and cited articles. We retrieved studies between 1960 and September 2014. Of a total of 2,320 patients, 19.8% (confidence interval: 14.8-25.9) had speech difficulty after thalamotomy. Speech difficulty occurred in 15% (confidence interval: 9.8-22.2) of those treated with a unilaterally and 40.6% (confidence interval: 29.5-52.8) of those treated bilaterally. Speech impairment was noticed 2- to 3-fold more commonly after left-sided procedures (40.7% vs. 15.2%). Of the 572 patients that underwent DBS, 19.4% (confidence interval: 13.1-27.8) experienced speech difficulty. Subgroup analysis revealed that this complication occurs in 10.2% (confidence interval: 7.4-13.9) of patients treated unilaterally and 34.6% (confidence interval: 21.6-50.4) treated bilaterally. After thalamotomy, the risk was higher in Parkinson's patients compared to patients with essential tremor: 19.8% versus 4.5% in the unilateral group and 42.5% versus 13.9% in the bilateral group. After DBS, this rate was higher in essential tremor patients. Both lesioning and stimulation thalamic surgery produce adverse effects on speech. Left-sided and bilateral procedures are approximately 3-fold more likely to cause speech difficulty. This effect was higher after thalamotomy compared to DBS. In the thalamotomy group, the risk was higher in Parkinson's patients, whereas in the DBS group it was higher in patients with essential tremor. Understanding the pathophysiology of speech disturbance after thalamic procedures is a priority. © 2017 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Outcomes after helicopter versus ground emergency medical services for major trauma--propensity score and instrumental variable analyses: a retrospective nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Tsuchiya, Asuka; Tsutsumi, Yusuke; Yasunaga, Hideo

2016-11-29

Because of a lack of randomized controlled trials and the methodological weakness of currently available observational studies, the benefits of helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) over ground emergency medical services (GEMS) for major trauma patients remain uncertain. The aim of this retrospective nationwide cohort study was to compare the mortality of adults with serious traumatic injuries who were transported by HEMS and GEMS, and to analyze the effects of HEMS in various subpopulations. Using the Japan Trauma Data Bank, we evaluated all adult patients who had an injury severity score ≥ 16 transported by HEMS or GEMS during the daytime between 2004 and 2014. We compared in-hospital mortality between patients transported by HEMS and GEMS using propensity score matching, inverse probability of treatment weighting and instrumental variable analyses to adjust for measured and unmeasured confounding factors. Eligible patients (n = 21,286) from 192 hospitals included 4128 transported by HEMS and 17,158 transported by GEMS. In the propensity score-matched model, there was a significant difference in the in-hospital mortality between HEMS and GEMS groups (22.2 vs. 24.5%, risk difference -2.3% [95% confidence interval, -4.2 to -0.5]; number needed to treat, 43 [95% confidence interval, 24 to 220]). The inverse probability of treatment weighting (20.8% vs. 23.9%; risk difference, -3.9% [95% confidence interval, -5.7 to -2.1]; number needed to treat, 26 [95% confidence interval, 17 to 48]) and instrumental variable analyses showed similar results (risk difference, -6.5% [95% confidence interval, -9.2 to -3.8]; number needed to treat, 15 [95% confidence interval, 11 to 27]). HEMS transport was significantly associated with lower in-hospital mortality after falls, compression injuries, severe chest injuries, extremity (including pelvic) injuries, and traumatic arrest on arrival to the emergency department. HEMS was associated with a significantly lower mortality than GEMS in adult patients with major traumatic injuries after adjusting for measured and unmeasured confounders.

Determinants of waterpipe use amongst adolescents in Northern Sweden: a survey of use pattern, risk perception, and environmental factors.

PubMed

Ramji, Rathi; Arnetz, Judy; Nilsson, Maria; Jamil, Hikmet; Norström, Fredrik; Maziak, Wasim; Wiklund, Ywonne; Arnetz, Bengt

2015-09-15

Determinants of waterpipe use in adolescents are believed to differ from those for other tobacco products, but there is a lack of studies of possible social, cultural, or psychological aspects of waterpipe use in this population. This study applied a socioecological model to explore waterpipe use, and its relationship to other tobacco use in Swedish adolescents. A total of 106 adolescents who attended an urban high-school in northern Sweden responded to an anonymous questionnaire. Prevalence rates for waterpipe use were examined in relation to socio-demographics, peer pressure, sensation seeking behavior, harm perception, environmental factors, and depression. Thirty-three percent reported ever having smoked waterpipe (ever use), with 30% having done so during the last 30 days (current use). Among waterpipe ever users, 60% had ever smoked cigarettes in comparison to 32% of non-waterpipe smokers (95% confidence interval 1.4-7.9). The odds of having ever smoked waterpipe were three times higher among male high school seniors as well as students with lower grades. Waterpipe ever users had three times higher odds of having higher levels of sensation-seeking (95% confidence interval 1.2-9.5) and scored high on the depression scales (95% confidence interval 1.6-6.8) than non-users. The odds of waterpipe ever use were four times higher for those who perceived waterpipe products to have pleasant smell compared to cigarettes (95% confidence interval 1.7-9.8). Waterpipe ever users were twice as likely to have seen waterpipe use on television compared to non-users (95% confidence interval 1.1-5.7). The odds of having friends who smoked regularly was eight times higher for waterpipe ever users than non-users (95% confidence interval 2.1-31.2). The current study reports a high use of waterpipe in a select group of students in northern Sweden. The study adds the importance of looking at socioecological determinants of use, including peer pressure and exposure to media marketing, as well as mental health among users.

To be involved or not to be involved: a survey of public preferences for self-involvement in decision-making involving mental capacity (competency) within Europe.

PubMed

Daveson, Barbara A; Bausewein, Claudia; Murtagh, Fliss E M; Calanzani, Natalia; Higginson, Irene J; Harding, Richard; Cohen, Joachim; Simon, Steffen T; Deliens, Luc; Bechinger-English, Dorothee; Hall, Sue; Koffman, Jonathan; Ferreira, Pedro Lopes; Toscani, Franco; Gysels, Marjolein; Ceulemans, Lucas; Haugen, Dagny F; Gomes, Barbara

2013-05-01

The Council of Europe has recommended that member states of European Union encourage their citizens to make decisions about their healthcare before they lose capacity to do so. However, it is unclear whether the public wants to make such decisions beforehand. To examine public preferences for self-involvement in end-of-life care decision-making and identify associated factors. A population-based survey with 9344 adults in England, Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. Across countries, 74% preferred self-involvement when capable; 44% preferred self-involvement when incapable through, for example, a living will. Four factors were associated with a preference for self-involvement across capacity and incapacity scenarios, respectively: higher educational attainment ((odds ratio = 1.93-2.77), (odds ratio = 1.33-1.80)); female gender ((odds ratio = 1.27, 95% confidence interval = 1.14-1.41), (odds ratio = 1.30, 95% confidence interval = 1.20-1.42)); younger-middle age ((30-59 years: odds ratio = 1.24-1.40), (50-59 years: odds ratio = 1.23, 95% confidence interval = 1.04-1.46)) and valuing quality over quantity of life or valuing both equally ((odds ratio = 1.49-1.58), (odds ratio = 1.35-1.53)). Those with increased financial hardship (odds ratio = 0.64-0.83) and a preference to die in hospital (not a palliative care unit) (odds ratio = 0.73, 95% confidence interval = 0.60-0.88), a nursing home or residential care (odds ratio = 0.73, 95% confidence interval = 0.54-0.99) were less likely to prefer self-involvement when capable. For the incapacity scenario, single people were more likely to prefer self-involvement (odds ratio = 1.34, 95% confidence interval = 1.18-1.53). Self-involvement in decision-making is important to the European public. However, a large proportion of the public prefer to not make decisions about their care in advance of incapacity. Financial hardship, educational attainment, age, and preferences regarding quality and quantity of life require further examination; these factors should be considered in relation to policy.

Practice Patterns and Outcomes for Pemetrexed Plus Platinum Doublet as Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Adenocarcinomas of Lung: Looking Beyond the Usual Paradigm.

PubMed

Noronha, V; Zanwar, S; Joshi, A; Patil, V M; Mahajan, A; Janu, A; Agarwal, J P; Bhargava, P; Kapoor, A; Prabhash, K

2018-01-01

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) is the standard of care in non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLC) with locally advanced N2 disease. There is a scarcity of data for the pemetrexed-platinum regimen as NACT. Also, apart from N2 disease, the role of NACT in locally advanced NSCLCs for tumour downstaging is unclear. Non-metastatic adenocarcinomas of lung treated with pemetrexed-platinum-based NACT were analysed. The patients with locoregionally advanced N2 disease and those who were borderline candidates for upfront definitive treatment were planned for NACT after discussion in a multidisciplinary clinic. In total, four cycles of 3-weekly pemetrexed and platinum were delivered in the combined neoadjuvant and adjuvant setting. A response assessment was carried out using RECIST criteria. Progression-free (PFS) and overall survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Of 114 patients, 96 evaluable patients received NACT with pemetrexed-platinum. The most common indication for NACT was N2 disease at baseline (46.8%). The objective response rate was 36.4% (95% confidence interval 22-52%), including two complete and 32 partial responses, whereas 12.5% of patients had progressive disease on NACT. The median PFS was 14 months (95% confidence interval 10.7-17.3) and the median overall survival was 22 months (95% confidence interval 15.6-28.4) at a median follow-up of 16 months. There was a significant improvement in the overall survival of patients undergoing definitive therapy versus no definitive therapy (median overall survival 25 months [95% confidence interval 19.6-30.4] versus 12 months [95% confidence interval 3.2-20.7], respectively; P = 0.015, hazard ratio 0.56 [95% confidence interval 0.3-0.9]). Among patients who could not undergo definitive chemoradiation upfront due to dosimetric constraints (n = 34), 24 (70.6%) patients finally underwent definitive therapy after NACT. Pemetrexed-platinum-based NACT seems to be an effective option and many borderline cases, where upfront definitive therapy is not feasible, may become amenable to the same after incorporation of NACT. Copyright © 2017 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Provider use of a participatory decision-making style with youth and caregivers and satisfaction with pediatric asthma visits.

PubMed

Sleath, Betsy; Carpenter, Delesha M; Coyne, Imelda; Davis, Scott A; Hayes Watson, Claire; Loughlin, Ceila E; Garcia, Nacire; Reuland, Daniel S; Tudor, Gail E

2018-01-01

We conducted a randomized controlled trial to test the effectiveness of an asthma question prompt list with video intervention to engage the youth during clinic visits. We examined whether the intervention was associated with 1) providers including youth and caregiver inputs more into asthma treatment regimens, 2) youth and caregivers rating providers as using more of a participatory decision-making style, and 3) youth and caregivers being more satisfied with visits. English- or Spanish-speaking youth aged 11-17 years with persistent asthma and their caregivers were recruited from four pediatric clinics and randomized to the intervention or usual care groups. The youth in the intervention group watched the video with their caregivers on an iPad and completed a one-page asthma question prompt list before their clinic visits. All visits were audiotaped. Generalized estimating equations were used to analyze the data. Forty providers and their patients (n=359) participated in this study. Providers included youth input into the asthma management treatment regimens during 2.5% of visits and caregiver input during 3.3% of visits. The youth in the intervention group were significantly more likely to rate their providers as using more of a participatory decision-making style (odds ratio=1.7, 95% confidence interval=1.1, 2.5). White caregivers were significantly more likely to rate the providers as more participatory (odds ratio=2.3, 95% confidence interval=1.2, 4.4). Youth (beta=4.9, 95% confidence interval=3.3, 6.5) and caregivers (beta=7.5, 95% confidence interval=3.1, 12.0) who rated their providers as being more participatory were significantly more satisfied with their visits. Youth (beta=-1.9, 95% confidence interval=-3.4, -0.4) and caregivers (beta=-8.8, 95% confidence interval=-16.2, -1.3) who spoke Spanish at home were less satisfied with visits. The intervention did not increase the inclusion of youth and caregiver inputs into asthma treatment regimens. However, it did increase the youth's perception of participatory decision-making style of the providers, and this in turn was associated with greater satisfaction.

Clinical impact and predictors of complete ST segment resolution after primary percutaneous coronary intervention: A subanalysis of the ATLANTIC Trial.

PubMed

Fabris, Enrico; van 't Hof, Arnoud; Hamm, Christian W; Lapostolle, Frédéric; Lassen, Jens F; Goodman, Shaun G; Ten Berg, Jurriën M; Bolognese, Leonardo; Cequier, Angel; Chettibi, Mohamed; Hammett, Christopher J; Huber, Kurt; Janzon, Magnus; Merkely, Béla; Storey, Robert F; Zeymer, Uwe; Cantor, Warren J; Tsatsaris, Anne; Kerneis, Mathieu; Diallo, Abdourahmane; Vicaut, Eric; Montalescot, Gilles

2017-08-01

In the ATLANTIC (Administration of Ticagrelor in the catheterization laboratory or in the Ambulance for New ST elevation myocardial Infarction to open the Coronary artery) trial the early use of aspirin, anticoagulation, and ticagrelor coupled with very short medical contact-to-balloon times represent good indicators of optimal treatment of ST-elevation myocardial infarction and an ideal setting to explore which factors may influence coronary reperfusion beyond a well-established pre-hospital system. This study sought to evaluate predictors of complete ST-segment resolution after percutaneous coronary intervention in ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients enrolled in the ATLANTIC trial. ST-segment analysis was performed on electrocardiograms recorded at the time of inclusion (pre-hospital electrocardiogram), and one hour after percutaneous coronary intervention (post-percutaneous coronary intervention electrocardiogram) by an independent core laboratory. Complete ST-segment resolution was defined as ≥70% ST-segment resolution. Complete ST-segment resolution occurred post-percutaneous coronary intervention in 54.9% ( n=800/1456) of patients and predicted lower 30-day composite major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (odds ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.19-0.65; p<0.01), definite stent thrombosis (odds ratio 0.18, 95% confidence interval 0.02-0.88; p=0.03), and total mortality (odds ratio 0.43, 95% confidence interval 0.19-0.97; p=0.04). In multivariate analysis, independent negative predictors of complete ST-segment resolution were the time from symptoms to pre-hospital electrocardiogram (odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.85-0.98; p<0.01) and diabetes mellitus (odds ratio 0.6, 95% confidence interval 0.44-0.83; p<0.01); pre-hospital ticagrelor treatment showed a favorable trend for complete ST-segment resolution (odds ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 0.99-1.51; p=0.06). This study confirmed that post-percutaneous coronary intervention complete ST-segment resolution is a valid surrogate marker for cardiovascular clinical outcomes. In the current era of ST-elevation myocardial infarction reperfusion, patients' delay and diabetes mellitus are independent predictors of poor reperfusion and need specific attention in the future.

Circulating tocopherols and risk of coronary artery disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Guangxiao; Li, Ying; Chen, Xin; Sun, Hao; Hou, Xiaowen; Shi, Jingpu

2016-05-01

Circulating level of tocopherols was supposed to be associated with risk of coronary artery disease. However, the results from previous studies remain controversial. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis based on observational studies to evaluate the association between circulating tocopherols and coronary artery disease risk for the first time. Meta-analysis. PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases were searched to retrieve articles published during January 1995 and May 2015. Articles were included if they provided sufficient information to calculate the weighted mean difference and its corresponding 95% confidence interval. Circulating level of total tocopherols was significantly lower in coronary artery disease patients than that in controls (weighted mean difference -4.33 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -6.74 to -1.91, P < 0.01). However, circulating α-tocopherol alone was not significantly associated with coronary artery disease risk. Results from subgroup analyses showed that a lower level of circulating total tocopherols was merely associated with higher coronary artery disease risk in studies with higher sex ratio in cases (<2, weighted mean difference -0.07 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -1.15 to 1.00, P = 0.90; ≥ 2, weighted mean difference -6.00 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -9.76 to -2.22, P < 0.01). Similarly, a lower level of circulating total tocopherols was associated with early onset coronary artery disease rather than late onset coronary artery disease (<60 years, weighted mean difference -5.40 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -9.22 to -1.57, P < 0.01; ≥ 60 years, weighted mean difference -1.37 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -3.48 to 0.74, P = 0.20). We also found some discrepancies in circulating total tocopherols when the studies were stratified by matching status and assay methods. Our findings suggest that a deficiency in circulating total tocopherols might be associated with higher coronary artery disease risk. Whereas circulating α-tocopherol alone could not protect us from developing coronary artery disease. Further prospective studies were warranted to confirm our findings. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

Association of Preoperative Urinary Uromodulin with AKI after Cardiac Surgery.

PubMed

Garimella, Pranav S; Jaber, Bertrand L; Tighiouart, Hocine; Liangos, Orfeas; Bennett, Michael R; Devarajan, Prasad; El-Achkar, Tarek M; Sarnak, Mark J

2017-01-06

AKI is a serious complication after cardiac surgery. Although high urinary concentrations of the tubular protein uromodulin, a marker of tubular health, are associated with less AKI in animal models, its relationship in humans is unknown. A post hoc analysis of a prospective cohort study of 218 adults undergoing on-pump cardiac surgery between 2004 and 2011 was conducted. Multivariable logistic and linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the associations of preoperative urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio with postoperative AKI (defined as a rise in serum creatinine of >0.3 mg/dl or >1.5 times baseline); severe AKI (doubling of creatinine or need for dialysis) and peak postoperative serum creatinine over the first 72 hours. Mean age was 68 years, 27% were women, 95% were white, and the median uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was 10.0 μg/g. AKI developed in 64 (29%) patients. Lower urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with higher odds for AKI (odds ratio, 1.49 per 1-SD lower uromodulin; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 2.13), which was marginally attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.99 to 2.07). The lowest uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio quartile was also associated with higher odds for AKI relative to the highest quartile (odds ratio, 2.94; 95% confidence interval, 1.19 to 7.26), which was slightly attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 2.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.91 to 6.48). A uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio below the median was associated with higher adjusted odds for severe AKI, although this did not reach statistical significance (odds ratio, 4.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.87 to 18.70). Each 1-SD lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with a higher adjusted mean peak serum creatinine (0.07 mg/dl per SD; 95% confidence interval, 0.02 to 0.13). Lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio is associated with higher odds of AKI and higher peak serum creatinine after cardiac surgery. Additional studies are needed to confirm these preliminary results. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Association of Preoperative Urinary Uromodulin with AKI after Cardiac Surgery

PubMed Central

Garimella, Pranav S.; Jaber, Bertrand L.; Tighiouart, Hocine; Liangos, Orfeas; Bennett, Michael R.; Devarajan, Prasad; El-Achkar, Tarek M.

2017-01-01

Background and objectives AKI is a serious complication after cardiac surgery. Although high urinary concentrations of the tubular protein uromodulin, a marker of tubular health, are associated with less AKI in animal models, its relationship in humans is unknown. Design, setting, participants, & measurements A post hoc analysis of a prospective cohort study of 218 adults undergoing on–pump cardiac surgery between 2004 and 2011 was conducted. Multivariable logistic and linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the associations of preoperative urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio with postoperative AKI (defined as a rise in serum creatinine of >0.3 mg/dl or >1.5 times baseline); severe AKI (doubling of creatinine or need for dialysis) and peak postoperative serum creatinine over the first 72 hours. Results Mean age was 68 years, 27% were women, 95% were white, and the median uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was 10.0 μg/g. AKI developed in 64 (29%) patients. Lower urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with higher odds for AKI (odds ratio, 1.49 per 1-SD lower uromodulin; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 2.13), which was marginally attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.99 to 2.07). The lowest uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio quartile was also associated with higher odds for AKI relative to the highest quartile (odds ratio, 2.94; 95% confidence interval, 1.19 to 7.26), which was slightly attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 2.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.91 to 6.48). A uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio below the median was associated with higher adjusted odds for severe AKI, although this did not reach statistical significance (odds ratio, 4.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.87 to 18.70). Each 1-SD lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with a higher adjusted mean peak serum creatinine (0.07 mg/dl per SD; 95% confidence interval, 0.02 to 0.13). Conclusions Lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio is associated with higher odds of AKI and higher peak serum creatinine after cardiac surgery. Additional studies are needed to confirm these preliminary results. PMID:27797887

Association of CKD with Outcomes Among Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

PubMed Central

Kaier, Klaus; Kaleschke, Gerrit; Gebauer, Katrin; Meyborg, Matthias; Malyar, Nasser M.; Freisinger, Eva; Baumgartner, Helmut; Reinecke, Holger; Reinöhl, Jochen

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Despitethe multiple depicted associations of CKD with reduced cardiovascular and overall prognoses, the association of CKD with outcome of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation has still not been well described. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Data from all hospitalized patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation procedures between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2013 in Germany were evaluated regarding influence of CKD, even in the earlier stages, on morbidity, in-hospital outcomes, and costs. Results A total of 28,716 patients were treated with transcatheter aortic valve implantation. A total of 11,189 (39.0%) suffered from CKD. Patients with CKD were predominantly women; had higher rates of comorbidities, such as coronary artery disease, heart failure at New York Heart Association 3/4, peripheral artery disease, and diabetes; and had a 1.3-fold higher estimated logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation value. In-hospital mortality was independently associated with CKD stage ≥3 (up to odds ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.35 to 2.17; P<0.05), bleeding was independently associated with CKD stage ≥4 (up to odds ratio, 1.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.47 to 2.24; P<0.001), and AKI was independently associated with CKD stages 3 (odds ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.62 to 2.06) and 4 (odds ratio, 2.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.92 to 2.83 both P<0.001). The stroke risk, in contrast, was lower for patients with CKD stages 4 (odds ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.16 to 0.33) and 5 (odds ratio, 0.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.15 to 0.39; both P<0.001). Lengths of hospital stay were, on average, 1.2-fold longer, whereas reimbursements were, on average, only 1.03-fold higher in patients who suffered from CKD. Conclusions This analysis illustrates for the first time on a nationwide basis the association of CKD with adverse outcomes in patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Thus, classification of CKD stages before transcatheter aortic valve implantation is important for appropriate risk stratification. PMID:28289067

Association of CKD with Outcomes Among Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation.

PubMed

Lüders, Florian; Kaier, Klaus; Kaleschke, Gerrit; Gebauer, Katrin; Meyborg, Matthias; Malyar, Nasser M; Freisinger, Eva; Baumgartner, Helmut; Reinecke, Holger; Reinöhl, Jochen

2017-05-08

Despitethe multiple depicted associations of CKD with reduced cardiovascular and overall prognoses, the association of CKD with outcome of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation has still not been well described. Data from all hospitalized patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation procedures between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2013 in Germany were evaluated regarding influence of CKD, even in the earlier stages, on morbidity, in-hospital outcomes, and costs. A total of 28,716 patients were treated with transcatheter aortic valve implantation. A total of 11,189 (39.0%) suffered from CKD. Patients with CKD were predominantly women; had higher rates of comorbidities, such as coronary artery disease, heart failure at New York Heart Association 3/4, peripheral artery disease, and diabetes; and had a 1.3-fold higher estimated logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation value. In-hospital mortality was independently associated with CKD stage ≥3 (up to odds ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.35 to 2.17; P <0.05), bleeding was independently associated with CKD stage ≥4 (up to odds ratio, 1.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.47 to 2.24; P <0.001), and AKI was independently associated with CKD stages 3 (odds ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.62 to 2.06) and 4 (odds ratio, 2.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.92 to 2.83 both P <0.001). The stroke risk, in contrast, was lower for patients with CKD stages 4 (odds ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.16 to 0.33) and 5 (odds ratio, 0.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.15 to 0.39; both P <0.001). Lengths of hospital stay were, on average, 1.2-fold longer, whereas reimbursements were, on average, only 1.03-fold higher in patients who suffered from CKD. This analysis illustrates for the first time on a nationwide basis the association of CKD with adverse outcomes in patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Thus, classification of CKD stages before transcatheter aortic valve implantation is important for appropriate risk stratification. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Combined metformin-clomiphene in clomiphene-resistant polycystic ovary syndrome: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Abu Hashim, Hatem; Foda, Osama; Ghayaty, Essam

2015-09-01

Our objective was to compare the effectiveness of metformin plus clomiphene citrate vs. gonadotrophins, laparoscopic ovarian diathermy, aromatase inhibitors, N-acetyl-cysteine and other insulin sensitizers+clomiphene for improving fertility outcomes in women with clomiphene-resistant polycystic ovary syndrome. PubMed, SCOPUS and CENTRAL databases were searched until April 2014 with the key words: PCOS, polycystic ovary syndrome, metformin, clomiphene citrate, ovulation induction and pregnancy. The search was limited to articles conducted with humans and published in English. The PRISMA statement was followed. Twelve randomized controlled trials (n = 1411 women) were included. Ovulation and clinical pregnancy rates per woman randomized. Compared with gonadotrophins, the metformin+clomiphene combination resulted in significantly fewer ovulations (odds ratio 0.25; 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.41; p < 0.00001, 3 trials, I(2) = 85%, n = 323) and pregnancies (odds ratio 0.45; 95% confidence interval 0.27-0.75; p = 0.002, 3 trials, I(2) = 0%, n = 323). No significant differences were found when metformin+clomiphene was compared with laparoscopic ovarian diathermy (odds ratio 0.88; 95% confidence interval 0.53-1.47; p = 0.62, 1 trial, n = 282; odds ratio 0.96; 95% confidence interval 0.60-1.54; p = 0.88, 2 trials, I(2) = 0%, n = 332, for ovulation and pregnancy rates, respectively). Likewise, no differences were observed in comparison with aromatase inhibitors (odds ratio 0.88; 95% confidence interval 0.58-1.34; p = 0.55, 3 trials, I(2) = 3%, n = 409; odds ratio 0.85; 95% confidence interval 0.53-1.36; p = 0.50, 2 trials, n = 309, for ovulation and pregnancy rates, respectively). There is evidence for the superiority of gonadotrophins, but the metformin+clomiphene combination is mainly relevant for clomiphene-resistant polycystic ovary syndrome patients and, if not effective, a next step could be gonadotrophins. More attempts with metformin+clomiphene are only relevant if there is limited access to gonadotrophins. © 2015 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

[Uncertainty characterization approaches for ecological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon in Taihu Lake].

PubMed

Guo, Guang-Hui; Wu, Feng-Chang; He, Hong-Ping; Feng, Cheng-Lian; Zhang, Rui-Qing; Li, Hui-Xian

2012-04-01

Probabilistic approaches, such as Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and non-probabilistic approaches, such as interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and variance propagation, were used to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake. The results from MCS and LHS were represented by probability distributions of hazard quotients of sigma PAH8 in surface waters of Taihu Lake. The probabilistic distribution of hazard quotient were obtained from the results of MCS and LHS based on probabilistic theory, which indicated that the confidence intervals of hazard quotient at 90% confidence level were in the range of 0.000 18-0.89 and 0.000 17-0.92, with the mean of 0.37 and 0.35, respectively. In addition, the probabilities that the hazard quotients from MCS and LHS exceed the threshold of 1 were 9.71% and 9.68%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis suggested the toxicity data contributed the most to the resulting distribution of quotients. The hazard quotient of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms ranged from 0.000 17 to 0.99 using interval analysis. The confidence interval was (0.001 5, 0.016 3) at the 90% confidence level calculated using fuzzy set theory, and the confidence interval was (0.000 16, 0.88) at the 90% confidence level based on the variance propagation. These results indicated that the ecological risk of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms were low. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations, which was based on different theory; therefore, the appropriate method should be selected on a case-by-case to quantify the effects of uncertainties on the ecological risk assessment. Approach based on the probabilistic theory was selected as the most appropriate method to assess the risk of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake, which provided an important scientific foundation of risk management and control for organic pollutants in water.

Associations of High-Grade Glioma With Glioma Risk Alleles and Histories of Allergy and Smoking

PubMed Central

Lachance, Daniel H.; Yang, Ping; Johnson, Derek R.; Decker, Paul A.; Kollmeyer, Thomas M.; McCoy, Lucie S.; Rice, Terri; Xiao, Yuanyuan; Ali-Osman, Francis; Wang, Frances; Stoddard, Shawn M.; Sprau, Debra J.; Kosel, Matthew L.; Wiencke, John K.; Wiemels, Joseph L.; Patoka, Joseph S.; Davis, Faith; McCarthy, Bridget; Rynearson, Amanda L.; Worra, Joel B.; Fridley, Brooke L.; O’Neill, Brian Patrick; Buckner, Jan C.; Il’yasova, Dora; Jenkins, Robert B.; Wrensch, Margaret R.

2011-01-01

Glioma risk has consistently been inversely associated with allergy history but not with smoking history despite putative biologic plausibility. Data from 855 high-grade glioma cases and 1,160 controls from 4 geographic regions of the United States during 1997–2008 were analyzed for interactions between allergy and smoking histories and inherited variants in 5 established glioma risk regions: 5p15.3 (TERT), 8q24.21 (CCDC26/MLZE), 9p21.3 (CDKN2B), 11q23.3 (PHLDB1/DDX6), and 20q13.3 (RTEL1). The inverse relation between allergy and glioma was stronger among those who did not (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.40, 95% confidence interval: 0.28, 0.58) versus those who did (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.76, 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.97; Pinteraction = 0.02) carry the 9p21.3 risk allele. However, the inverse association with allergy was stronger among those who carried (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.44, 95% confidence interval: 0.29, 0.68) versus those who did not carry (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.68, 95% confidence interval: 0.54, 0.86) the 20q13.3 glioma risk allele, but this interaction was not statistically significant (P = 0.14). No relation was observed between glioma risk and smoking (odds ratio = 0.92, 95% confidence interval: 0.77, 1.10; P = 0.37), and there were no interactions for glioma risk of smoking history with any of the risk alleles. The authors’ observations are consistent with a recent report that the inherited glioma risk variants in chromosome regions 9p21.3 and 20q13.3 may modify the inverse association of allergy and glioma. PMID:21742680

Gastric dilation-volvulus in dogs attending UK emergency-care veterinary practices: prevalence, risk factors and survival.

PubMed

O'Neill, D G; Case, J; Boag, A K; Church, D B; McGreevy, P D; Thomson, P C; Brodbelt, D C

2017-11-01

To report prevalence, risk factors and clinical outcomes for presumptive gastric dilation-volvulus diagnosed among an emergency-care population of UK dogs. The study used a cross-sectional design using emergency-care veterinary clinical records from the VetCompass Programme spanning September 1, 2012 to February 28, 2014 and risk factor analysis using multivariable logistic regression modelling. The study population comprised 77,088 dogs attending 50 Vets Now clinics. Overall, 492 dogs had presumptive gastric dilation-volvulus diagnoses, giving a prevalence of 0·64% (95% Confidence interval: 0·58 to 0·70%). Compared with cross-bred dogs, breeds with the highest odds ratios for the diagnosis of presumptive gastric dilation-volvulus were the great Dane (odds ratio: 114·3, 95% Confidence interval 55·1 to 237·1, P<0·001), akita (odds ratio: 84·4, 95% Confidence interval 33·6 to 211·9, P<0·001) and dogue de Bordeaux (odds ratio: 82·9, 95% Confidence interval 39·0 to 176·3, P<0·001). Odds increased as dogs aged up to 12 years and neutered male dogs had 1·3 (95% Confidence interval 1·0 to 1·8, P=0·041) times the odds compared with entire females. Of the cases that were presented alive, 49·7% survived to discharge overall, but 79·3% of surgical cases survived to discharge. Approximately 80% of surgically managed cases survived to discharge. Certain large breeds were highly predisposed. © 2017 British Small Animal Veterinary Association.

Diagnostic accuracy of intracellular mycobacterium tuberculosis detection for tuberculous meningitis.

PubMed

Feng, Guo-dong; Shi, Ming; Ma, Lei; Chen, Ping; Wang, Bing-ju; Zhang, Min; Chang, Xiao-lin; Su, Xiu-chu; Yang, Yi-ning; Fan, Xin-hong; Dai, Wen; Liu, Ting-ting; He, Ying; Bian, Ting; Duan, Li-xin; Li, Jin-ge; Hao, Xiao-ke; Liu, Jia-yun; Xue, Xin; Song, Yun-zhang; Wu, Hai-qin; Niu, Guo-qiang; Zhang, Li; Han, Cui-juan; Lin, Hong; Lin, Zhi-hui; Liu, Jian-jun; Jian, Qian; Zhang, Jin-she; Tian, Ye; Zhou, Bai-yu; Wang, Jing; Xue, Chang-hu; Han, Xiao-fang; Wang, Jian-feng; Wang, Shou-lian; Thwaites, Guy E; Zhao, Gang

2014-02-15

Early diagnosis and treatment of tuberculous meningitis saves lives, but current laboratory diagnostic tests lack sensitivity. We investigated whether the detection of intracellular bacteria by a modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain and early secretory antigen target (ESAT)-6 in cerebrospinal fluid leukocytes improves tuberculous meningitis diagnosis. Cerebrospinal fluid specimens from patients with suspected tuberculous meningitis were stained by conventional Ziehl-Neelsen stain, a modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain involving cytospin slides with Triton processing, and an ESAT-6 immunocytochemical stain. Acid-fast bacteria and ESAT-6-expressing leukocytes were detected by microscopy. All tests were performed prospectively in a central laboratory by experienced technicians masked to the patients' final diagnosis. Two hundred and eighty patients with suspected tuberculous meningitis were enrolled. Thirty-seven had Mycobacterium tuberculosis cultured from cerebrospinal fluid; 40 had a microbiologically confirmed alternative diagnosis; the rest had probable or possible tuberculous meningitis according to published criteria. Against a clinical diagnostic gold standard the sensitivity of conventional Ziehl-Neelsen stain was 3.3% (95% confidence interval, 1.6-6.7%), compared with 82.9% (95% confidence interval, 77.4-87.3%) for modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain and 75.1% (95% confidence interval, 68.8-80.6%) for ESAT-6 immunostain. Intracellular bacteria were seen in 87.8% of the slides positive by the modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain. The specificity of modified Ziehl-Neelsen and ESAT-6 stain was 85.0% (95% confidence interval, 69.4-93.8%) and 90.0% (95% confidence interval, 75.4-96.7%), respectively. Enhanced bacterial detection by simple modification of the Ziehl-Neelsen stain and an ESAT-6 intracellular stain improve the laboratory diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis.

Dietary acid, age, and serum bicarbonate levels among adults in the United States.

PubMed

Amodu, Afolarin; Abramowitz, Matthew K

2013-12-01

Greater dietary acid has been associated with lower serum bicarbonate levels in patients with CKD. Whether this association extends to the general population and if it is modified by age are unknown. This study examined the association of the dietary acid load, estimated by net endogenous acid production, with serum bicarbonate levels in adult participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2004. The mean serum bicarbonate was 24.9 mEq/L (SEM=0.1), and the mean estimated net endogenous acid production was 57.4 mEq/d (SEM=0.4). Serum bicarbonate was linearly associated with age, such that the oldest participants had the highest serum bicarbonate levels. After multivariable adjustment, participants in the highest quartile of net endogenous acid production had 0.40 mEq/L (95% confidence interval, -0.55 to -0.26) lower serum bicarbonate and a 33% (95% confidence interval, 3 to 72) higher likelihood of acidosis compared with those participants in the lowest quartile. There was a significant interaction by age of the association of net endogenous acid production with serum bicarbonate (P=0.005). Among participants 20-39, 40-59, and ≥60 years old, those participants in the highest net endogenous acid production quartile had 0.26 (95% confidence interval, -0.49 to -0.03), 0.60 (95% confidence interval, -0.92 to -0.29), and 0.49 (95% confidence interval, -0.84 to -0.14) mEq/L lower serum bicarbonate, respectively, compared with participants in the lowest quartile. Greater dietary acid is associated with lower serum bicarbonate in the general US population, and the magnitude of this association is greater among middle-aged and elderly persons than younger adults.

Comparative factor analysis of the effect of postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition on recovery of right lobe liver donors.

PubMed

Hsieh, Chia-En; Lin, Kuo-Hua; Lin, Chia-Cheng; Hwu, Yueh-Juen; Lin, Ping-Yi; Lin, Hui-Chuan; Ko, Chih-Jan; Wang, Su-Han; Chen, Yao-Li

2015-04-01

Intensive nutritional support can reduce the catabolic response, improve protein synthesis, and promote liver regeneration. This study examined whether postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition may improve recovery and reduce the length of hospital stay in right lobe liver donors. In this retrospective study, we enrolled liver donors with residual liver volume < 50%. Donors were classified into 2 groups: donors who received (n = 44) or did not receive (n = 40) postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition. Liver function tests included alanine aminotransferase and total bilirubin levels, and postoperative complications included pleural effusion, atelectasis, and wound complications. Hospital length of stay was included as a potential risk factor for the evaluation of the effect of postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition on recovery of right lobe liver donors. Male sex (β, 22.04; 95% confidence interval: 6.22 - 37.86) was a significant predictor of changes in postoperative alanine aminotransferase level. Male sex (β, 0.045; 95% confidence interval: 0.16 - 37.86) and receipt of peripheral parenteral nutrition (β, -0.045; 95% confidence interval: -0.72 - 0.17) were significant predictors of changes in total bilirubin level. Postoperative atelectasis (P < .001), pleural effusion (P < .011), and total complications (P = .015) had significantly lower incidence in the peripheral parenteral nutrition than control group. Multivariate logistic regression showed that recipients of peripheral parenteral nutrition (odds ratio, 0.161; 95% confidence interval: 0.043 - 0.598) and age (odds ratio, 0.870; 95% confidence interval: 0.782 - 0.968) were significant preoperative risk factors for postoperative complications. Postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition is associated with a lower incidence of pleural effusion and atelectasis, a more rapid recovery of hyperbilirubinemia, and shorter length of stay in right lobe liver donors.

Intrauterine fetal death and risk of shoulder dystocia at delivery.

PubMed

Larsen, Sandra; Dobbin, Joanna; McCallion, Oliver; Eskild, Anne

2016-12-01

Vaginal delivery is recommended after intrauterine fetal death. However, little is known about the risk of shoulder dystocia in these deliveries. We studied whether intrauterine fetal death increases the risk of shoulder dystocia at delivery. In this population-based register study using the Medical Birth Registry of Norway, we included all singleton pregnancies with vaginal delivery of offspring in cephalic presentation in Norway during the period 1967-2012 (n = 2 266 118). Risk of shoulder dystocia was estimated as absolute risk (%) and odds ratio with 95% confidence interval. Adjustment was made for offspring birthweight (in grams). We performed sub-analyses within categories of birthweight (<4000 and ≥4000 g) and in pregnancies with maternal diabetes. Shoulder dystocia occurred in 1.1% of pregnancies with intrauterine fetal death and in 0.8% of pregnancies without intrauterine fetal death (p < 0.0001) (crude odds ratio 1.5, 95% confidence interval 1.2-4.9). After adjustment for birthweight, the odds ratio was 5.9 (95% confidence interval 4.7-7.4). In pregnancies with birthweight ≥4000 g, shoulder dystocia occurred in 14.6% of pregnancies with intrauterine fetal death and in 2.8% of pregnancies without intrauterine fetal death (p < 0.001) (crude odds ratio 5.9, 95% confidence interval 4.5-7.9). In pregnancies with birthweight ≥4000 g and concurrent maternal diabetes, shoulder dystocia occurred in 57.1% of pregnancies with intrauterine fetal death and 9.6% of pregnancies without intrauterine fetal death (p < 0.001) (crude odds ratio 12.6, 95% confidence interval 5.9-26.9). Intrauterine fetal death increased the risk of shoulder dystocia at delivery, and the absolute risk of shoulder dystocia was particularly high if offspring birthweight was high and the mother had diabetes. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Prediction of posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology after childbirth - A Croatian longitudinal study.

PubMed

Srkalović Imširagić, Azijada; Begić, Dražen; Šimičević, Livija; Bajić, Žarko

2017-02-01

Following childbirth, a vast number of women experience some degree of mood swings, while some experience symptoms of postpartum posttraumatic stress disorder. Using a biopsychosocial model, the primary aim of this study was to identify predictors of posttraumatic stress disorder and its symptomatology following childbirth. This observational, longitudinal study included 372 postpartum women. In order to explore biopsychosocial predictors, participants completed several questionnaires 3-5 days after childbirth: the Impact of Events Scale Revised, the Big Five Inventory, The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, breastfeeding practice and social and demographic factors. Six to nine weeks after childbirth, participants re-completed the questionnaires regarding psychiatric symptomatology and breastfeeding practice. Using a multivariate level of analysis, the predictors that increased the likelihood of postpartum posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology at the first study phase were: emergency caesarean section (odds ratio 2.48; confidence interval 1.13-5.43) and neuroticism personality trait (odds ratio 1.12; confidence interval 1.05-1.20). The predictor that increased the likelihood of posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology at the second study phase was the baseline Impact of Events Scale Revised score (odds ratio 12.55; confidence interval 4.06-38.81). Predictors that decreased the likelihood of symptomatology at the second study phase were life in a nuclear family (odds ratio 0.27; confidence interval 0.09-0.77) and life in a city (odds ratio 0.29; confidence interval 0.09-0.94). Biopsychosocial theory is applicable to postpartum psychiatric disorders. In addition to screening for depression amongst postpartum women, there is a need to include other postpartum psychiatric symptomatology screenings in routine practice. Copyright © 2016 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The association between the metabolic syndrome and metabolic syndrome score and pulmonary function in non-smoking adults.

PubMed

Yoon, Hyun; Gi, Mi Young; Cha, Ju Ae; Yoo, Chan Uk; Park, Sang Muk

2018-03-01

This study assessed the association of metabolic syndrome and metabolic syndrome score with the predicted forced vital capacity and predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s) values in Korean non-smoking adults. We analysed data obtained from 6684 adults during the 2013-2015 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. After adjustment for related variables, metabolic syndrome ( p < 0.001) and metabolic syndrome score ( p < 0.001) were found to be inversely associated with the predicted forced vital capacity and forced expiratory volume in 1 s values. The odds ratios of restrictive pulmonary disease (the predicted forced vital capacity < 80.0% with forced expiratory volume in 1 s/FVC ⩾ 70.0%) by metabolic syndrome score with metabolic syndrome score 0 as a reference group showed no significance for metabolic syndrome score 1 [1.061 (95% confidence interval, 0.755-1.490)] and metabolic syndrome score 2 [1.247 (95% confidence interval, 0.890-1.747)], but showed significant for metabolic syndrome score 3 [1.433 (95% confidence interval, 1.010-2.033)] and metabolic syndrome score ⩾ 4 [1.760 (95% confidence interval, 1.216-2.550)]. In addition, the odds ratio of restrictive pulmonary disease of the metabolic syndrome [1.360 (95% confidence interval, 1.118-1.655)] was significantly higher than those of non-metabolic syndrome. Metabolic syndrome and metabolic syndrome score were inversely associated with the predicted forced vital capacity and forced expiratory volume in 1 s values in Korean non-smoking adults. In addition, metabolic syndrome and metabolic syndrome score were positively associated with the restrictive pulmonary disease.

Prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children in Ba Ria – Vung Tau province, Vietnam

PubMed Central

Paudel, Prakash; Ramson, Prasidh; Naduvilath, Thomas; Wilson, David; Phuong, Ha Thanh; Ho, Suit M; Giap, Nguyen V

2014-01-01

Background To assess the prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children 12–15 years of age in Ba Ria – Vung Tau province, Vietnam. Design Prospective, cross-sectional study. Participants 2238 secondary school children. Methods Subjects were selected based on stratified multistage cluster sampling of 13 secondary schools from urban, rural and semi-urban areas. The examination included visual acuity measurements, ocular motility evaluation, cycloplegic autorefraction, and examination of the external eye, anterior segment, media and fundus. Main Outcome Measures Visual acuity and principal cause of vision impairment. Results The prevalence of uncorrected and presenting visual acuity ≤6/12 in the better eye were 19.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.5–26.3) and 12.2% (95% confidence interval, 8.8–15.6), respectively. Refractive error was the cause of vision impairment in 92.7%, amblyopia in 2.2%, cataract in 0.7%, retinal disorders in 0.4%, other causes in 1.5% and unexplained causes in the remaining 2.6%. The prevalence of vision impairment due to myopia in either eye (–0.50 diopter or greater) was 20.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.8–28.0), hyperopia (≥2.00 D) was 0.4% (95% confidence interval, 0.0–0.7) and emmetropia with astigmatism (≥0.75 D) was 0.7% (95% confidence interval, 0.2–1.2). Vision impairment due to myopia was associated with higher school grade and increased time spent reading and working on a computer. Conclusions Uncorrected refractive error, particularly myopia, among secondary school children in Vietnam is a major public health problem. School-based eye health initiative such as refractive error screening is warranted to reduce vision impairment. PMID:24299145

High definition versus standard definition white light endoscopy for detecting dysplasia in patients with Barrett's esophagus.

PubMed

Sami, S S; Subramanian, V; Butt, W M; Bejkar, G; Coleman, J; Mannath, J; Ragunath, K

2015-01-01

High-definition endoscopy systems provide superior image resolution. The aim of this study was to assess the utility of high definition compared with standard definition endoscopy system for detecting dysplastic lesions in patients with Barrett's esophagus. A retrospective cohort study of patients with non-dysplastic Barrett's esophagus undergoing routine surveillance was performed. Data were retrieved from the central hospital electronic database. Procedures performed for non-surveillance indications, Barrett's esophagus Prague C0M1 classification with no specialized intestinal metaplasia on histology, patients diagnosed with any dysplasia or cancer on index endoscopy, and procedures using advanced imaging techniques were excluded. Logistic regression models were constructed to estimate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals comparing outcomes with standard definition and high-definition systems. The high definition was superior to standard definition system in targeted detection of all dysplastic lesions (odds ratio 3.27, 95% confidence interval 1.27-8.40) as well as overall dysplasia detected on both random and target biopsies (odds ratio 2.36, 95% confidence interval 1.50-3.72). More non-dysplastic lesions were detected with the high-definition system (odds ratio 1.16, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.33). There was no difference between high definition and standard definition endoscopy in the overall (random and target) high-grade dysplasia or cancers detected (odds ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.83-1.04). Trainee endoscopists, number of biopsies taken, and male sex were all significantly associated with a higher yield for dysplastic lesions. The use of the high-definition endoscopy system is associated with better targeted detection of any dysplasia during routine Barrett's esophagus surveillance. However, high-definition endoscopy cannot replace random biopsies at present time. © 2014 International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus.

Prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children in Ba Ria - Vung Tau province, Vietnam.

PubMed

Paudel, Prakash; Ramson, Prasidh; Naduvilath, Thomas; Wilson, David; Phuong, Ha Thanh; Ho, Suit M; Giap, Nguyen V

2014-04-01

To assess the prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children 12-15 years of age in Ba Ria - Vung Tau province, Vietnam. Prospective, cross-sectional study. 2238 secondary school children. Subjects were selected based on stratified multistage cluster sampling of 13 secondary schools from urban, rural and semi-urban areas. The examination included visual acuity measurements, ocular motility evaluation, cycloplegic autorefraction, and examination of the external eye, anterior segment, media and fundus. Visual acuity and principal cause of vision impairment. The prevalence of uncorrected and presenting visual acuity ≤6/12 in the better eye were 19.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.5-26.3) and 12.2% (95% confidence interval, 8.8-15.6), respectively. Refractive error was the cause of vision impairment in 92.7%, amblyopia in 2.2%, cataract in 0.7%, retinal disorders in 0.4%, other causes in 1.5% and unexplained causes in the remaining 2.6%. The prevalence of vision impairment due to myopia in either eye (-0.50 diopter or greater) was 20.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.8-28.0), hyperopia (≥2.00 D) was 0.4% (95% confidence interval, 0.0-0.7) and emmetropia with astigmatism (≥0.75 D) was 0.7% (95% confidence interval, 0.2-1.2). Vision impairment due to myopia was associated with higher school grade and increased time spent reading and working on a computer. Uncorrected refractive error, particularly myopia, among secondary school children in Vietnam is a major public health problem. School-based eye health initiative such as refractive error screening is warranted to reduce vision impairment. © 2013 The Authors. Clinical & Experimental Ophthalmology published by Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd on behalf of Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Impact of Time to Treatment Initiation in Patients with Human Papillomavirus-positive and -negative Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

PubMed

Grønhøj, C; Jensen, D; Dehlendorff, C; Nørregaard, C; Andersen, E; Specht, L; Charabi, B; von Buchwald, C

2018-06-01

The distinct difference in disease phenotype of human papillomavirus-positive (HPV+) and -negative (HPV-) oropharyngeal squamous cell cancer (OPSCC) patients might also be apparent when assessing the effect of time to treatment initiation (TTI). We assessed the overall survival and progression-free survival (PFS) effect from increasing TTI for HPV+ and HPV- OPSCC patients. We examined patients who received curative-intended therapy for OPSCC in eastern Denmark between 2000 and 2014. TTI was the number of days from diagnosis to the initiation of curative treatment. Overall survival and PFS were measured from the start of treatment and estimated with the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated with Cox proportional hazard regression. At a median follow-up of 3.6 years (interquartile range 1.86-6.07 years), 1177 patients were included (59% HPV+). In the adjusted analysis for the HPV+ and HPV- patient population, TTI influenced overall survival and PFS, most evident in the HPV- group, where TTI >60 days statistically significantly influenced overall survival but not PFS (overall survival: hazard ratio 1.60; 95% confidence interval 1.04-2.45; PFS: hazard ratio 1.46; 95% confidence interval 0.96-2.22). For patients with a TTI >60 days in the HPV+ group, TTI affected overall survival and PFS similarly, with slightly lower hazard ratio estimates of 1.44 (95% confidence interval 0.83-2.51) and 1.15 (95% confidence interval 0.70-1.88), respectively. For patients treated for a HPV+ or HPV- OPSCC, TTI affects outcome, with the strongest effect for overall survival among HPV- patients. Reducing TTI is an important tool to improve the prognosis. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Gene polymorphisms in folate metabolizing enzymes in adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia: effects on methotrexate-related toxicity and survival

PubMed Central

Ongaro, Alessia; De Mattei, Monica; Della Porta, Matteo Giovanni; Rigolin, GianMatteo; Ambrosio, Cristina; Di Raimondo, Francesco; Pellati, Agnese; Masieri, Federica Francesca; Caruso, Angelo; Catozzi, Linda; Gemmati, Donato

2009-01-01

Background The antifolate agent methotrexate is an important component of maintenance therapy in acute lymphoblastic leukemia, although methotrexate-related toxicity is often a reason for interruption of chemotherapy. Prediction of toxicity is difficult because of inter-individual variability susceptibility to antileukemic agents. Methotrexate interferes with folate metabolism leading to depletion of reduced folates. Design and Methods The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of polymorphisms for folate metabolizing enzymes with respect to toxicity and survival in adult patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated with methotrexate maintenance therapy. To this purpose, we evaluated possible associations between genotype and hematologic and non-hematologic toxicity and effects on survival at 2 years of follow-up in patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Results Polymorphisms in the genes encoding for methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR 677C>T) and in dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR 19 bp deletion) significantly increased the risk of hepatotoxicity in single (odds ratio 5.23, 95% confidence interval 1.13–21.95 and odds ratio 4.57, 95% confidence interval 1.01–20.77, respectively) and in combined analysis (odds ratio 6.82, 95% confidence interval 1.38–33.59). MTHFR 677C>T also increased the risk of leukopenia and gastrointestinal toxicity, whilst thymidylate synthase 28 bp repeat polymorphism increased the risk of anemia (odds ratio 8.48, 95% confidence interval 2.00–36.09). Finally, patients with MTHFR 677TT had a decreased overall survival rate (hazard ratio 2.37, 95% confidence interval 1.46–8.45). Conclusions Genotyping of folate polymorphisms might be useful in adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia to optimize methotrexate therapy, reducing the associated toxicity with possible effects on survival. PMID:19648163

The thresholds for statistical and clinical significance – a five-step procedure for evaluation of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Thresholds for statistical significance are insufficiently demonstrated by 95% confidence intervals or P-values when assessing results from randomised clinical trials. First, a P-value only shows the probability of getting a result assuming that the null hypothesis is true and does not reflect the probability of getting a result assuming an alternative hypothesis to the null hypothesis is true. Second, a confidence interval or a P-value showing significance may be caused by multiplicity. Third, statistical significance does not necessarily result in clinical significance. Therefore, assessment of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials deserves more rigour in order to become more valid. Methods Several methodologies for assessing the statistical and clinical significance of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials were considered. Balancing simplicity and comprehensiveness, a simple five-step procedure was developed. Results For a more valid assessment of results from a randomised clinical trial we propose the following five-steps: (1) report the confidence intervals and the exact P-values; (2) report Bayes factor for the primary outcome, being the ratio of the probability that a given trial result is compatible with a ‘null’ effect (corresponding to the P-value) divided by the probability that the trial result is compatible with the intervention effect hypothesised in the sample size calculation; (3) adjust the confidence intervals and the statistical significance threshold if the trial is stopped early or if interim analyses have been conducted; (4) adjust the confidence intervals and the P-values for multiplicity due to number of outcome comparisons; and (5) assess clinical significance of the trial results. Conclusions If the proposed five-step procedure is followed, this may increase the validity of assessments of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials. PMID:24588900

Parental use of sun protection for their children-does skin color matter?

PubMed

Tan, Marcus G; Nag, Shudeshna; Weinstein, Miriam

2018-03-01

Excessive sun exposure during childhood is a risk factor for skin cancer. This study aimed to compare the frequency of ideal sun protection use between parents with lighter- and darker-skinned children and explore their attitudes and beliefs on sun safety and their choice of sun protection. Parents of children aged 6 months to 6 years completed self-administered questionnaires about sun protection practices for their children. Parents assessed their child's Fitzpatrick phototype and were divided into lighter- (Fitzpatrick phototype I-III) and darker-skinned (Fitzpatrick phototype IV-VI) groups. Sun safety guidelines from the Canadian Dermatology Association were used to qualify ideal sun protection. A total of 183 parents were included. Overall, 31 parents (17%) used ideal sun protection for their children. As their children grew older, parents were less likely to use ideal sun protection (odds ratio = 0.69, 95% confidence interval = 0.53-0.90). Parents in the lighter-skinned group were more likely to use ideal sun protection for their children (odds ratio = 7.4, 95% confidence interval = 2.7-20.1), believe that sun exposure was harmful (odds ratio = 17.2, 95% confidence interval = 4.0-74.9), and perceive value in sun protection (odds ratio = 11.4, 95% confidence interval = 3.3-39.0); the darker-skinned group believed that darker skin tones provided more sun protection (odds ratio = 12.4, 95% confidence interval = 6.1-25.4). Ideal parental sun protection efforts are overall low, particularly in parents of darker-skinned children. The identified attitudes toward and beliefs about sun safety may aid in delivery of future sun protection interventions, especially in multiracial populations. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dietary Pattern and Risk of Hodgkin Lymphoma in a Population-Based Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Epstein, Mara M.; Chang, Ellen T.; Zhang, Yawei; Fung, Teresa T.; Batista, Julie L.; Ambinder, Richard F.; Zheng, Tongzhang; Mueller, Nancy E.; Birmann, Brenda M.

2015-01-01

Classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) has few known modifiable risk factors, and the relationship between diet and cHL risk is unclear. We performed the first investigation of an association between dietary pattern and cHL risk in 435 cHL cases and 563 population-based controls from Massachusetts and Connecticut (1997–2000) who completed baseline diet questionnaires. We identified 4 major dietary patterns (“vegetable,” “high meat,” “fruit/low-fat dairy,” “desserts/sweets”) using principal components analysis. We computed multivariable odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations of dietary pattern score (quartiles) with younger-adult (age <50 years), older-adult (age ≥50 years), and overall cHL risk. Secondary analyses examined associations by histological subtype and tumor Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) status. A diet high in desserts/sweets was associated with younger-adult (odds ratio(quartile 4 vs. quartile 1) = 1.60, 95% confidence interval: 1.05, 2.45; Ptrend = 0.008) and EBV-negative, younger-adult (odds ratio = 2.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.31, 3.41; Ptrend = 0.007) cHL risk. A high meat diet was associated with older-adult (odds ratio = 3.34, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 10.91; Ptrend = 0.04) and EBV-negative, older-adult (odds ratio = 4.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 20.86; Ptrend = 0.04) cHL risk. Other dietary patterns were not clearly associated with cHL. We report the first evidence for a role of dietary pattern in cHL etiology. Diets featuring high intake of meat or desserts and sweets may increase cHL risk. PMID:26182945

Dietary pattern and risk of hodgkin lymphoma in a population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Epstein, Mara M; Chang, Ellen T; Zhang, Yawei; Fung, Teresa T; Batista, Julie L; Ambinder, Richard F; Zheng, Tongzhang; Mueller, Nancy E; Birmann, Brenda M

2015-09-01

Classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) has few known modifiable risk factors, and the relationship between diet and cHL risk is unclear. We performed the first investigation of an association between dietary pattern and cHL risk in 435 cHL cases and 563 population-based controls from Massachusetts and Connecticut (1997-2000) who completed baseline diet questionnaires. We identified 4 major dietary patterns ("vegetable," "high meat," "fruit/low-fat dairy," "desserts/sweets") using principal components analysis. We computed multivariable odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations of dietary pattern score (quartiles) with younger-adult (age <50 years), older-adult (age ≥50 years), and overall cHL risk. Secondary analyses examined associations by histological subtype and tumor Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) status. A diet high in desserts/sweets was associated with younger-adult (odds ratio(quartile 4 vs. quartile 1) = 1.60, 95% confidence interval: 1.05, 2.45; Ptrend = 0.008) and EBV-negative, younger-adult (odds ratio = 2.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.31, 3.41; Ptrend = 0.007) cHL risk. A high meat diet was associated with older-adult (odds ratio = 3.34, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 10.91; Ptrend = 0.04) and EBV-negative, older-adult (odds ratio = 4.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 20.86; Ptrend = 0.04) cHL risk. Other dietary patterns were not clearly associated with cHL. We report the first evidence for a role of dietary pattern in cHL etiology. Diets featuring high intake of meat or desserts and sweets may increase cHL risk. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Educational achievement among long-term survivors of congenital heart defects: a Danish population-based follow-up study.

PubMed

Olsen, Morten; Hjortdal, Vibeke E; Mortensen, Laust H; Christensen, Thomas D; Sørensen, Henrik T; Pedersen, Lars

2011-04-01

Congenital heart defect patients may experience neurodevelopmental impairment. We investigated their educational attainments from basic schooling to higher education. Using administrative databases, we identified all Danish patients with a cardiac defect diagnosis born from 1 January, 1977 to 1 January, 1991 and alive at age 13 years. As a comparison cohort, we randomly sampled 10 persons per patient. We obtained information on educational attainment from Denmark's Database for Labour Market Research. The study population was followed until achievement of educational levels, death, emigration, or 1 January, 2006. We estimated the hazard ratio of attaining given educational levels, conditional on completing preceding levels, using discrete-time Cox regression and adjusting for socio-economic factors. Analyses were repeated for a sub-cohort of patients and controls born at term and without extracardiac defects or chromosomal anomalies. We identified 2986 patients. Their probability of completing compulsory basic schooling was approximately 10% lower than that of control individuals (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.79, ranged from 0.75 to 0.82 0.79; 95% confidence interval: 0.75-0.82). Their subsequent probability of completing secondary school was lower than that of the controls, both for all patients (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.74; 95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.80) and for the sub-cohort (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.80; 95% confidence interval: 0.73-0.86). The probability of attaining a higher degree, conditional on completion of youth education, was affected both for all patients (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.88; 95% confidence interval: 0.76-1.01) and for the sub-cohort (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.92; 95% confidence interval: 0.79-1.07). The probability of educational attainment was reduced among long-term congenital heart defect survivors.

Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Younes, W.; Ratkiewicz, A.; Ressler, J. J.

2017-09-28

Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the 235U(n, f) and 239Pu (n, f) cross sections.

Observational constraints on the physical nature of submillimetre source multiplicity: chance projections are common

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayward, Christopher C.; Chapman, Scott C.; Steidel, Charles C.; Golob, Anneya; Casey, Caitlin M.; Smith, Daniel J. B.; Zitrin, Adi; Blain, Andrew W.; Bremer, Malcolm N.; Chen, Chian-Chou; Coppin, Kristen E. K.; Farrah, Duncan; Ibar, Eduardo; Michałowski, Michał J.; Sawicki, Marcin; Scott, Douglas; van der Werf, Paul; Fazio, Giovanni G.; Geach, James E.; Gurwell, Mark; Petitpas, Glen; Wilner, David J.

2018-05-01

Interferometric observations have demonstrated that a significant fraction of single-dish submillimetre (submm) sources are blends of multiple submm galaxies (SMGs), but the nature of this multiplicity, i.e. whether the galaxies are physically associated or chance projections, has not been determined. We performed spectroscopy of 11 SMGs in six multicomponent submm sources, obtaining spectroscopic redshifts for nine of them. For an additional two component SMGs, we detected continuum emission but no obvious features. We supplement our observed sources with four single-dish submm sources from the literature. This sample allows us to statistically constrain the physical nature of single-dish submm source multiplicity for the first time. In three (3/7, { or} 43^{+39 }_{ -33} {per cent at 95 {per cent} confidence}) of the single-dish sources for which the nature of the blending is unambiguous, the components for which spectroscopic redshifts are available are physically associated, whereas 4/7 (57^{+33 }_{ -39} per cent) have at least one unassociated component. When components whose spectra exhibit continuum but no features and for which the photometric redshift is significantly different from the spectroscopic redshift of the other component are also considered, 6/9 (67^{+26 }_{ -37} per cent) of the single-dish sources are comprised of at least one unassociated component SMG. The nature of the multiplicity of one single-dish source is ambiguous. We conclude that physically associated systems and chance projections both contribute to the multicomponent single-dish submm source population. This result contradicts the conventional wisdom that bright submm sources are solely a result of merger-induced starbursts, as blending of unassociated galaxies is also important.

Prospects for detection of intermediate-mass black holes in globular clusters using integrated-light spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Vita, R.; Trenti, M.; Bianchini, P.; Askar, A.; Giersz, M.; van de Ven, G.

2017-06-01

The detection of intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) in Galactic globular clusters (GCs) has so far been controversial. In order to characterize the effectiveness of integrated-light spectroscopy through integral field units, we analyse realistic mock data generated from state-of-the-art Monte Carlo simulations of GCs with a central IMBH, considering different setups and conditions varying IMBH mass, cluster distance and accuracy in determination of the centre. The mock observations are modelled with isotropic Jeans models to assess the success rate in identifying the IMBH presence, which we find to be primarily dependent on IMBH mass. However, even for an IMBH of considerable mass (3 per cent of the total GC mass), the analysis does not yield conclusive results in one out of five cases, because of shot noise due to bright stars close to the IMBH line of sight. This stochastic variability in the modelling outcome grows with decreasing BH mass, with approximately three failures out of four for IMBHs with 0.1 per cent of total GC mass. Finally, we find that our analysis is generally unable to exclude at 68 per cent confidence an IMBH with mass of 103 M⊙ in snapshots without a central BH. Interestingly, our results are not sensitive to GC distance within 5-20 kpc, nor to misidentification of the GC centre by less than 2 arcsec (<20 per cent of the core radius). These findings highlight the value of ground-based integral field spectroscopy for large GC surveys, where systematic failures can be accounted for, but stress the importance of discrete kinematic measurements that are less affected by stochasticity induced by bright stars.

A study on in vitro culture of Trichuris ovis in different physiological solutions at constant temperature, 37°C.

PubMed

Singh, Tikam; Lal, S S

2011-06-01

The primary aim of in vitro culture of whipworms (Trichuris ovis) is to provide artificial conditions under which the life cycle of the parasites completed outside the host under controlled conditions. The physiological solutions used for the present study were sodium chloride (0.64%), Ringer's solution, Tyrode's solution, and Lock-Lewis solution. Parasites were collected from freshly slaughtered intestine of the host. The recovered parasites were washed with running tap water after that with normal saline. After washing parasites were put in four petridishes containing different physiological solutions. Observations were recorded after interval of every 8 h. The hundred percent survival of Trichuris ovis was observed at 32, 40, and 48 h in NaCl (0.64%), Ringer's, Tyrode's, and Lock-Lewis solution, respectively in case of both male and female parasites. In sodium chloride solution (0.64%) cent percent mortality was observed after 64 h of incubation in males and in case of females it was observed 72 h. In Ringer's solution cent percent mortality was observed after 72 in males and in females it was observed 80 h. In Tyrode's solution cent percent mortality was observed after 88 h in males and 96 h in females. In Lock-Lewis solution cent percent mortality was observed after 96 h in case of both the male and female parasites. Present study could be used to understand the effects of various drugs on the above parasites and also other intra-intestinal parasites.

A numerical approach to 14C wiggle-match dating of organic deposits: best fits and confidence intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blaauw, Maarten; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.; Mauquoy, Dmitri; van der Plicht, Johannes; van Geel, Bas

2003-06-01

14C wiggle-match dating (WMD) of peat deposits uses the non-linear relationship between 14C age and calendar age to match the shape of a sequence of closely spaced peat 14C dates with the 14C calibration curve. A numerical approach to WMD enables the quantitative assessment of various possible wiggle-match solutions and of calendar year confidence intervals for sequences of 14C dates. We assess the assumptions, advantages, and limitations of the method. Several case-studies show that WMD results in more precise chronologies than when individual 14C dates are calibrated. WMD is most successful during periods with major excursions in the 14C calibration curve (e.g., in one case WMD could narrow down confidence intervals from 230 to 36 yr).

Family history and outcome of young patients with breast cancer in the UK (POSH study).

PubMed

Eccles, B K; Copson, E R; Cutress, R I; Maishman, T; Altman, D G; Simmonds, P; Gerty, S M; Durcan, L; Stanton, L; Eccles, D M

2015-07-01

Young patients presenting to surgical clinics with breast cancer are usually aware of their family history and frequently believe that a positive family history may adversely affect their prognosis. Tumour pathology and outcomes were compared in young British patients with breast cancer with and without a family history of breast cancer. Prospective Outcomes in Sporadic versus Hereditary breast cancer (POSH) is a large prospective cohort study of women aged less than 41 years with breast cancer diagnosed and treated in the UK using modern oncological management. Personal characteristics, tumour pathology, treatment and family history of breast/ovarian cancer were recorded. Follow-up data were collected annually. Family history data were available for 2850 patients. No family history was reported by 65·9 per cent, and 34·1 per cent reported breast/ovarian cancer in at least one first- or second-degree relative. Patients with a family history were more likely to have grade 3 tumours (63·3 versus 58·9 per cent) and less likely to have human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive tumours (24·7 versus 28·8 per cent) than those with no family history. In multivariable analyses, there were no significant differences in distant disease-free intervals for patients with versus those without a family history, either for the whole cohort (hazard ratio (HR) 0·89, 95 per cent c.i. 0·76 to 1·03; P = 0·120) or when stratified by oestrogen receptor (ER) status (ER-negative: HR 0·80, 0·62 to 1·04, P = 0·101; ER-positive: HR 0·95, 0·78 to 1·15, P = 0·589). Young British patients presenting to breast surgical clinics with a positive family history can be reassured that this is not a significant independent risk factor for breast cancer outcome. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Proportion of general factor variance in a hierarchical multiple-component measuring instrument: a note on a confidence interval estimation procedure.

PubMed

Raykov, Tenko; Zinbarg, Richard E

2011-05-01

A confidence interval construction procedure for the proportion of explained variance by a hierarchical, general factor in a multi-component measuring instrument is outlined. The method provides point and interval estimates for the proportion of total scale score variance that is accounted for by the general factor, which could be viewed as common to all components. The approach may also be used for testing composite (one-tailed) or simple hypotheses about this proportion, and is illustrated with a pair of examples. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Confidence intervals in Flow Forecasting by using artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagoulia, Dionysia; Tsekouras, George

2014-05-01

One of the major inadequacies in implementation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for flow forecasting is the development of confidence intervals, because the relevant estimation cannot be implemented directly, contrasted to the classical forecasting methods. The variation in the ANN output is a measure of uncertainty in the model predictions based on the training data set. Different methods for uncertainty analysis, such as bootstrap, Bayesian, Monte Carlo, have already proposed for hydrologic and geophysical models, while methods for confidence intervals, such as error output, re-sampling, multi-linear regression adapted to ANN have been used for power load forecasting [1-2]. The aim of this paper is to present the re-sampling method for ANN prediction models and to develop this for flow forecasting of the next day. The re-sampling method is based on the ascending sorting of the errors between real and predicted values for all input vectors. The cumulative sample distribution function of the prediction errors is calculated and the confidence intervals are estimated by keeping the intermediate value, rejecting the extreme values according to the desired confidence levels, and holding the intervals symmetrical in probability. For application of the confidence intervals issue, input vectors are used from the Mesochora catchment in western-central Greece. The ANN's training algorithm is the stochastic training back-propagation process with decreasing functions of learning rate and momentum term, for which an optimization process is conducted regarding the crucial parameters values, such as the number of neurons, the kind of activation functions, the initial values and time parameters of learning rate and momentum term etc. Input variables are historical data of previous days, such as flows, nonlinearly weather related temperatures and nonlinearly weather related rainfalls based on correlation analysis between the under prediction flow and each implicit input variable of different ANN structures [3]. The performance of each ANN structure is evaluated by the voting analysis based on eleven criteria, which are the root mean square error (RMSE), the correlation index (R), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the mean percentage error (MPE), the mean percentage error (ME), the percentage volume in errors (VE), the percentage error in peak (MF), the normalized mean bias error (NMBE), the normalized root mean bias error (NRMSE), the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) and the modified Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E1). The next day flow for the test set is calculated using the best ANN structure's model. Consequently, the confidence intervals of various confidence levels for training, evaluation and test sets are compared in order to explore the generalisation dynamics of confidence intervals from training and evaluation sets. [1] H.S. Hippert, C.E. Pedreira, R.C. Souza, "Neural networks for short-term load forecasting: A review and evaluation," IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vol. 16, no. 1, 2001, pp. 44-55. [2] G. J. Tsekouras, N.E. Mastorakis, F.D. Kanellos, V.T. Kontargyri, C.D. Tsirekis, I.S. Karanasiou, Ch.N. Elias, A.D. Salis, P.A. Kontaxis, A.A. Gialketsi: "Short term load forecasting in Greek interconnected power system using ANN: Confidence Interval using a novel re-sampling technique with corrective Factor", WSEAS International Conference on Circuits, Systems, Electronics, Control & Signal Processing, (CSECS '10), Vouliagmeni, Athens, Greece, December 29-31, 2010. [3] D. Panagoulia, I. Trichakis, G. J. Tsekouras: "Flow Forecasting via Artificial Neural Networks - A Study for Input Variables conditioned on atmospheric circulation", European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2012 (NH1.1 / AS1.16 - Extreme meteorological and hydrological events induced by severe weather and climate change), Vienna, Austria, 22-27 April 2012.

Razonamiento de Estudiantes Universitarios sobre Variabilidad e Intervalos de Confianza en un Contexto Inferencial Informal = University Students' Reasoning on Variability and Confidence Intervals in Inferential Informal Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Inzunsa Cazares, Santiago

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a qualitative research with a group of 15 university students of social sciences on informal inferential reasoning developed in a computer environment on concepts involved in the confidence intervals. The results indicate that students developed a correct reasoning about sampling variability and visualized…

40 CFR Appendix D to Part 52 - Determination of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions From Stationary Sources by Continuous Monitors

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... confidence interval using Equations D-1 and D-2. Report the zero drift as the sum of the absolute mean value... confidence interval using Equations D-1 and D-2. Report the zero drift as the sum of the absolute mean and... operation when the pollutant concentration at the time for the measurement is zero. 1.6Calibration Drift...

40 CFR Appendix D to Part 52 - Determination of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions From Stationary Sources by Continuous Monitors

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... confidence interval using Equations D-1 and D-2. Report the zero drift as the sum of the absolute mean value... confidence interval using Equations D-1 and D-2. Report the zero drift as the sum of the absolute mean and... operation when the pollutant concentration at the time for the measurement is zero. 1.6Calibration Drift...

40 CFR Appendix D to Part 52 - Determination of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions From Stationary Sources by Continuous Monitors

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... confidence interval using Equations D-1 and D-2. Report the zero drift as the sum of the absolute mean value... confidence interval using Equations D-1 and D-2. Report the zero drift as the sum of the absolute mean and... operation when the pollutant concentration at the time for the measurement is zero. 1.6Calibration Drift...

Lower Plasma Fetuin-A Levels Are Associated With a Higher Mortality Risk in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Chen, Xuechen; Zhang, Yuan; Chen, Qian; Li, Qing; Li, Yanping; Ling, Wenhua

2017-11-01

The present study was designed to evaluate the association of circulating fetuin-A with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality. We measured plasma fetuin-A in 1620 patients using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kit. The patients were members of the Guangdong coronary artery disease cohort and were recruited between October 2008 and December 2011. Cox regression models were used to estimate the association between plasma fetuin-A and the risk of mortality. A total of 206 deaths were recorded during a median follow-up of 5.9 years, 146 of whom died from CVD. The hazard ratios for the second and third tertiles of the fetuin-A levels (using the first tertile as a reference) were 0.65 (95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.96) and 0.51 (95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.78) for CVD mortality ( P =0.005) and 0.65 (95% confidence interval, 0.47-0.91) and 0.48 (95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.70) for all-cause mortality ( P <0.001), respectively. Lower plasma fetuin-A levels were associated with an increased risk of all-cause and CVD mortality in patients with coronary artery disease independently of traditional CVD risk factors. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Physical activity and mortality: is the association explained by genetic selection?

PubMed

Carlsson, Sofia; Andersson, Tomas; Lichtenstein, Paul; Michaëlsson, Karl; Ahlbom, Anders

2007-08-01

Public health recommendations promote physical activity to improve health and longevity. Recent data suggest that the association between physical activity and mortality may be due to genetic selection. Using data on twins, the authors investigated whether genetic selection explains the association between physical activity and mortality. Data were based on a postal questionnaire answered by 13,109 Swedish twin pairs in 1972. The national Cause of Death Register was used for information about all-cause mortality (n=1,800) and cardiovascular disease mortality (n=638) during 1975-2004. The risk of death was reduced by 34% for men (relative risk=0.64, 95% confidence interval: 0.50, 0.83) and by 25% for women (relative risk=0.75, 95% confidence interval: 0.50, 1.14) reporting high physical activity levels. Within-pair comparisons of monozygotic twins showed that, compared with their less active co-twin, the more active twin had a 20% (odds ratio=0.80, 95% confidence interval: 0.65, 0.99) reduced risk of all-cause mortality and a 32% (odds ratio=0.68, 95% confidence interval: 0.49, 0.95) reduced risk of cardiovascular disease mortality. Results indicate that physical activity is associated with a reduced risk of mortality not due to genetic selection. This finding supports a causal link between physical activity and mortality.

Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg

2017-01-01

Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

Locations and magnitudes of historical earthquakes in the Sierra of Ecuador (1587-1996)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beauval, Céline; Yepes, Hugo; Bakun, William H.; Egred, José; Alvarado, Alexandra; Singaucho, Juan-Carlos

2010-06-01

The whole territory of Ecuador is exposed to seismic hazard. Great earthquakes can occur in the subduction zone (e.g. Esmeraldas, 1906, Mw 8.8), whereas lower magnitude but shallower and potentially more destructive earthquakes can occur in the highlands. This study focuses on the historical crustal earthquakes of the Andean Cordillera. Several large cities are located in the Interandean Valley, among them Quito, the capital (~2.5 millions inhabitants). A total population of ~6 millions inhabitants currently live in the highlands, raising the seismic risk. At present, precise instrumental data for the Ecuadorian territory is not available for periods earlier than 1990 (beginning date of the revised instrumental Ecuadorian seismic catalogue); therefore historical data are of utmost importance for assessing seismic hazard. In this study, the Bakun & Wentworth method is applied in order to determine magnitudes, locations, and associated uncertainties for historical earthquakes of the Sierra over the period 1587-1976. An intensity-magnitude equation is derived from the four most reliable instrumental earthquakes (Mw between 5.3 and 7.1). Intensity data available per historical earthquake vary between 10 (Quito, 1587, Intensity >=VI) and 117 (Riobamba, 1797, Intensity >=III). The bootstrap resampling technique is coupled to the B&W method for deriving geographical confidence contours for the intensity centre depending on the data set of each earthquake, as well as confidence intervals for the magnitude. The extension of the area delineating the intensity centre location at the 67 per cent confidence level (+/-1σ) depends on the amount of intensity data, on their internal coherence, on the number of intensity degrees available, and on their spatial distribution. Special attention is dedicated to the few earthquakes described by intensities reaching IX, X and XI degrees. Twenty-five events are studied, and nineteen new epicentral locations are obtained, yielding equivalent moment magnitudes between 5.0 and 7.6. Large earthquakes seem to be related to strike slip faults between the North Andean Block and stable South America to the east, while moderate earthquakes (Mw <= 6) seem to be associated with to thrust faults located on the western internal slopes of the Interandean Valley.

Locations and magnitudes of historical earthquakes in the Sierra of Ecuador (1587–1996)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beauval, Celine; Yepes, Hugo; Bakun, William H.; Egred, Jose; Alvarado, Alexandra; Singaucho, Juan-Carlos

2010-01-01

The whole territory of Ecuador is exposed to seismic hazard. Great earthquakes can occur in the subduction zone (e.g. Esmeraldas, 1906, Mw8.8), whereas lower magnitude but shallower and potentially more destructive earthquakes can occur in the highlands. This study focuses on the historical crustal earthquakes of the Andean Cordillera. Several large cities are located in the Interandean Valley, among them Quito, the capital (∼2.5 millions inhabitants). A total population of ∼6 millions inhabitants currently live in the highlands, raising the seismic risk. At present, precise instrumental data for the Ecuadorian territory is not available for periods earlier than 1990 (beginning date of the revised instrumental Ecuadorian seismic catalogue); therefore historical data are of utmost importance for assessing seismic hazard. In this study, the Bakun & Wentworth method is applied in order to determine magnitudes, locations, and associated uncertainties for historical earthquakes of the Sierra over the period 1587–1976. An intensity-magnitude equation is derived from the four most reliable instrumental earthquakes (Mwbetween 5.3 and 7.1). Intensity data available per historical earthquake vary between 10 (Quito, 1587, Intensity ≥VI) and 117 (Riobamba, 1797, Intensity ≥III). The bootstrap resampling technique is coupled to the B&W method for deriving geographical confidence contours for the intensity centre depending on the data set of each earthquake, as well as confidence intervals for the magnitude. The extension of the area delineating the intensity centre location at the 67 per cent confidence level (±1σ) depends on the amount of intensity data, on their internal coherence, on the number of intensity degrees available, and on their spatial distribution. Special attention is dedicated to the few earthquakes described by intensities reaching IX, X and XI degrees. Twenty-five events are studied, and nineteen new epicentral locations are obtained, yielding equivalent moment magnitudes between 5.0 and 7.6. Large earthquakes seem to be related to strike slip faults between the North Andean Block and stable South America to the east, while moderate earthquakes (Mw≤ 6) seem to be associated with to thrust faults located on the western internal slopes of the Interandean Valley.

A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald

2007-01-01

In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

On the log-normality of historical magnetic-storm intensity statistics: implications for extreme-event probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Pulkkinen, Antti; Riley, Pete

2015-01-01

An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic-storm-maximum intensities are the realization of a log-normal stochastic process. Weighted least-squares and maximum-likelihood methods are used to fit log-normal functions to −Dst storm-time maxima for years 1957-2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power-law function. In general, the maximum-likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least-squares. From extrapolation of maximum-likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, −Dst≥850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42,2.41] times per century; a 100-yr magnetic storm is identified as having a −Dst≥880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490,1187] nT.

Acute toxicity of diazinon is similar for eight stocks of bobwhite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, E.F.; Camardese, M.B.; Heinz, G.H.; Spann, J.W.; DeBevec, A.B.

1984-01-01

Nine-week-old bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) from eight different game farms were tested for their sensitivity to an acute oral exposure of technical-grade diazinon (phosphorothioic acid O, O-diethyl-O-[6-methyl- 2-(1 -methylethy 1)-4-pyrimidinyl]ester). Extraneous variables associated with interlaboratory differences in husbandry were eliminated by incubating eggs and rearing chicks to test age for all stocks simultaneously in the same facilities at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. Under this single set of conditions, the responses of the eight stocks of bobwhite to diazinon were statistically inseparable, with LD50 values varying from 13 mg/kg (95% confidence interval, 8-21 mg/kg) to 17 mg/kg (95% confidence interval, 11-25 mg/kg). The pooled LD50 for the eight stocks was 14.7 mg/kg (95% confidence interval,13.1-16.5 mg/kg).

Profile-likelihood Confidence Intervals in Item Response Theory Models.

PubMed

Chalmers, R Philip; Pek, Jolynn; Liu, Yang

2017-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) are fundamental inferential devices which quantify the sampling variability of parameter estimates. In item response theory, CIs have been primarily obtained from large-sample Wald-type approaches based on standard error estimates, derived from the observed or expected information matrix, after parameters have been estimated via maximum likelihood. An alternative approach to constructing CIs is to quantify sampling variability directly from the likelihood function with a technique known as profile-likelihood confidence intervals (PL CIs). In this article, we introduce PL CIs for item response theory models, compare PL CIs to classical large-sample Wald-type CIs, and demonstrate important distinctions among these CIs. CIs are then constructed for parameters directly estimated in the specified model and for transformed parameters which are often obtained post-estimation. Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that PL CIs perform consistently better than Wald-type CIs for both non-transformed and transformed parameters.

Relationship Between Maximum Tsunami Amplitude and Duration of Signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yoo Yin; Whitmore, Paul M.

2014-12-01

All available tsunami observations at tide gauges situated along the North American coast were examined to determine if there is any clear relationship between maximum amplitude and signal duration. In total, 89 historical tsunami recordings generated by 13 major earthquakes between 1952 and 2011 were investigated. Tidal variations were filtered out of the signal and the duration between the arrival time and the time at which the signals drops and stays below 0.3 m amplitude was computed. The processed tsunami time series were evaluated and a linear least-squares fit with a 95 % confidence interval was examined to compare tsunami durations with maximum tsunami amplitude in the study region. The confidence interval is roughly 20 h over the range of maximum tsunami amplitudes in which we are interested. This relatively large confidence interval likely results from variations in local resonance effects, late-arriving reflections, and other effects.

Return on Investment of a Work-Family Intervention: Evidence From the Work, Family, and Health Network.

PubMed

Barbosa, Carolina; Bray, Jeremy W; Dowd, William N; Mills, Michael J; Moen, Phyllis; Wipfli, Brad; Olson, Ryan; Kelly, Erin L

2015-09-01

To estimate the return on investment (ROI) of a workplace initiative to reduce work-family conflict in a group-randomized 18-month field experiment in an information technology firm in the United States. Intervention resources were micro-costed; benefits included medical costs, productivity (presenteeism), and turnover. Regression models were used to estimate the ROI, and cluster-robust bootstrap was used to calculate its confidence interval. For each participant, model-adjusted costs of the intervention were $690 and company savings were $1850 (2011 prices). The ROI was 1.68 (95% confidence interval, -8.85 to 9.47) and was robust in sensitivity analyses. The positive ROI indicates that employers' investment in an intervention to reduce work-family conflict can enhance their business. Although this was the first study to present a confidence interval for the ROI, results are comparable with the literature.

Predictors of successful closure of patent ductus arteriosus with indomethacin.

PubMed

Ahamed, M F; Verma, P; Lee, S; Vega, M; Wang, D; Kim, M; Fuloria, M

2015-09-01

To determine whether platelet counts can predict the likelihood of successful closure of patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) with indomethacin. This was a retrospective cohort study of infants <32 weeks' gestational age (GA) and birth weight <1500 g with PDA. Clinical characteristics between infants who achieved ductal closure with indomethacin and those who failed were compared. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors of successful ductal closure. In infants with hemodynamically significant PDA, older GA (odds ratio=1.54; 95% confidence interval: 1.12 to 2.13), male gender (odds ratio=3.02; 95% confidence interval: 1.08 to 8.49) and higher platelet count (odds ratio=1.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.04 to 2.17) prior to indomethacin treatment were associated with successful ductal closure with indomethacin. Older GA, male gender and higher platelet count at time of treatment of hemodynamically significant PDA are predictors of successful ductal closure with indomethacin.

Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 and Kidney Disease Progression in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease.

PubMed

Chonchol, Michel; Gitomer, Berenice; Isakova, Tamara; Cai, Xuan; Salusky, Isidro; Pereira, Renata; Abebe, Kaleab; Torres, Vicente; Steinman, Theodor I; Grantham, Jared J; Chapman, Arlene B; Schrier, Robert W; Wolf, Myles

2017-09-07

Increases in fibroblast growth factor 23 precede kidney function decline in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease; however, the role of fibroblast growth factor 23 in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease has not been well characterized. We measured intact fibroblast growth factor 23 levels in baseline serum samples from 1002 participants in the HALT-PKD Study A ( n =540; mean eGFR =91±17 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ) and B ( n =462; mean eGFR =48±12 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ). We used linear mixed and Cox proportional hazards models to test associations between fibroblast growth factor 23 and eGFR decline, percentage change in height-adjusted total kidney volume, and composite of time to 50% reduction in eGFR, onset of ESRD, or death. Median (interquartile range) intact fibroblast growth factor 23 was 44 (33-56) pg/ml in HALT-PKD Study A and 69 (50-93) pg/ml in Study B. In adjusted models, annualized eGFR decline was significantly faster in the upper fibroblast growth factor 23 quartile (Study A: quartile 4, -3.62; 95% confidence interval, -4.12 to -3.12 versus quartile 1, -2.51; 95% confidence interval, -2.71 to -2.30 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ; P for trend <0.001; Study B: quartile 4, -3.74; 95% confidence interval, -4.14 to -3.34 versus quartile 1, -2.78; 95% confidence interval, -2.92 to -2.63 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ; P for trend <0.001). In Study A, higher fibroblast growth factor 23 quartiles were associated with greater longitudinal percentage increase in height-adjusted total kidney volume in adjusted models (quartile 4, 6.76; 95% confidence interval, 5.57 to 7.96 versus quartile 1, 6.04; 95% confidence interval, 5.55 to 6.54; P for trend =0.03). In Study B, compared with the lowest quartile, the highest fibroblast growth factor 23 quartile was associated with elevated risk for the composite outcome (hazard ratio, 3.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.84 to 5.25). Addition of fibroblast growth factor 23 to a model of annualized decline in eGFR≥3.0 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 did not improve risk prediction. Higher serum fibroblast growth factor 23 concentration was associated with kidney function decline, height-adjusted total kidney volume percentage increase, and death in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. However, fibroblast growth factor 23 did not substantially improve prediction of rapid kidney function decline. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Effect of modified bridge exercise on trunk muscle activity in healthy adults: a cross sectional study.

PubMed

Yoon, Jeong-Oh; Kang, Min-Hyeok; Kim, Jun-Seok; Oh, Jae-Seop

This is a cross-sectional study. University research laboratory. Fifteen healthy adults (mean age: 27.47 years) volunteered for this study. The individuals performed standard bridge exercise and modified bridge exercises with right leg-lift (single-leg-lift bridge exercise, single-leg-lift bridge exercise on an unstable surface, and single-leg-lift hip abduction bridge exercise). During the bridge exercises, electromyography of the rectus abdominis, internal oblique, erector spinae, and multifidus muscles was recorded using a wireless surface electromyography system. Two-way repeated-measures analysis of variance (exercise by side) with post hoc pairwise comparisons using Bonferroni correction was used to compare the electromyography data collected from each muscle. Bilateral internal oblique muscle activities showed significantly greater during single-leg-lift bridge exercise (95% confidence interval: right internal oblique=-8.99 to -1.08, left internal oblique=-6.84 to -0.10), single-leg-lift bridge exercise on an unstable surface (95% confidence interval: right internal oblique=-7.32 to -1.78, left internal oblique=-5.34 to -0.99), and single-leg-lift hip abduction bridge exercise (95% confidence interval: right internal oblique=-17.13 to -0.89, left internal oblique=-8.56 to -0.60) compared with standard bridge exercise. Bilateral rectus abdominis showed greater electromyography activity during single-leg-lift bridge exercise on an unstable surface (95% confidence interval: right rectus abdominis=-9.33 to -1.13, left rectus abdominis=-4.80 to -0.64) and single-leg-lift hip abduction bridge exercise (95% confidence interval: right rectus abdominis=-14.12 to -1.84, left rectus abdominis=-6.68 to -0.16) compared with standard bridge exercise. In addition, the right rectus abdominis muscle activity was greater during single-leg-lift hip abduction bridge exercise compared with single-leg-lift bridge exercise on an unstable surface (95% confidence interval=-7.51 to -0.89). For erector spinae, muscle activity was greater in right side compared with left side during all exercises (95% confidence interval: standard bridge exercise=0.19-4.53, single-leg-lift bridge exercise=0.24-10.49, single-leg-lift bridge exercise on an unstable surface=0.74-8.55, single-leg-lift hip abduction bridge exercise=0.47-11.43). There was no significant interaction and main effect for multifidus. Adding hip abduction and unstable conditions to bridge exercises may be useful strategy to facilitate the co-activation of trunk muscles. Copyright © 2017 Associação Brasileira de Pesquisa e Pós-Graduação em Fisioterapia. Publicado por Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Assessing the effect of foreign travel and protection by BCG vaccination on the spread of tuberculosis in a low incidence country, United Kingdom, October 2008 to December 2009.

PubMed

Abubakar, I; Matthews, T; Harmer, D; Okereke, E; Crawford, K; Hall, T; Collyns, T; Smith, G; Barrett, A; Baugh, S

2011-03-24

The contribution of travel to high incidence countries and the impact of the discontinuation of universal Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccination to there cent rise in tuberculosis (TB) in the United Kingdom remain unclear. An outbreak in a college presented an opportunity to assess these. A cohort of students answered a questionnaire assessing risk factors for TB.Participants were screened with an interferon gamma release assay (IGRA). Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios (OR) were calculated using logistic regression.Among 2,284 students, 400 (17.5%) were diagnosed with TB infection. A higher risk was noted for travel to a high incidence area in the past two years (OR: 1.39;95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04–1.89) and among those with the greatest exposure to the index case(OR: 3.94; 95% CI: 2.60–5.97). There was no association between BCG and risk of infection (OR: 1.05; 95%CI: 0.80–1.39). The lack of a protective effect by BCG on TB infection supports the discontinuation of universal vaccination. The association with foreign travel suggests the need to assess the cost-effectiveness of serial IGRA testing and treatment of positive persons among returning travellers.

Cardiopulmonary exercise testing for the prediction of morbidity risk after rectal cancer surgery.

PubMed

West, M A; Parry, M G; Lythgoe, D; Barben, C P; Kemp, G J; Grocott, M P W; Jack, S

2014-08-01

This study investigated the relationship between objectively measured physical fitness variables derived by cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) and in-hospital morbidity after rectal cancer surgery. Patients scheduled for rectal cancer surgery underwent preoperative CPET (reported blind to patient characteristics) with recording of morbidity (recorded blind to CPET variables). Non-parametric receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and logistic regression were used to assess the relationship between CPET variables and postoperative morbidity. Of 105 patients assessed, 95 (72 men) were included; ten patients had no surgery and were excluded (3 by choice, 7 owing to unresectable metastasis). Sixty-eight patients had received neoadjuvant treatment. ROC curve analysis of oxygen uptake (V˙o2 ) at estimated lactate threshold (θ^L ) and peak V˙o2 gave an area under the ROC curve of 0·87 (95 per cent confidence interval 0·78 to 0·95; P < 0·001) and 0·85 (0·77 to 0·93; P < 0·001) respectively, indicating that they can help discriminate patients at risk of postoperative morbidity. The optimal cut-off points identified were 10·6 and 18·6 ml per kg per min for V˙o2 at θ^L and peak respectively. CPET can help predict morbidity after rectal cancer surgery. © 2014 BJS Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Patients with recurrent falls attending Accident & Emergency benefit from multifactorial intervention--a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Davison, John; Bond, John; Dawson, Pamela; Steen, I Nicholas; Kenny, Rose Anne

2005-03-01

To determine the effectiveness of multifactorial intervention to prevent falls in cognitively intact older persons with recurrent falls. Randomised controlled trial of multifactorial (medical, physiotherapy and occupational therapy) post-fall assessment and intervention compared with conventional care. Accident & Emergency departments in a university teaching hospital and associated district general hospital. 313 cognitively intact men and women aged over 65 years presenting to Accident & Emergency with a fall or fall-related injury and at least one additional fall in the preceding year; 159 randomised to assessment and intervention and 154 to conventional care. primary outcome was the number of falls and fallers in 1 year after recruitment. Secondary outcomes included injury rates, fall-related hospital admissions, mortality and fear of falling. There were 36% fewer falls in the intervention group (relative risk 0.64, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.90). The proportion of subjects continuing to fall (65% (94/144) compared with 68% (102/149) relative risk 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.81-1.12), and the number of fall-related attendances and hospital admissions was not different between groups. Duration of hospital admission was reduced (mean difference admission duration 3.6 days, 95% confidence interval 0.1-7.6) and falls efficacy was better in the intervention group (mean difference in Activities Specific Balance Confidence Score of 7.5, 95% confidence interval 0.72-14.2). Multifactorial intervention is effective at reducing the fall burden in cognitively intact older persons with recurrent falls attending Accident & Emergency, but does not reduce the proportion of subjects still falling.

A Prospective, Randomized Trial of Routine Duplex Ultrasound Surveillance on Arteriovenous Fistula Maturation.

PubMed

Han, Ahram; Min, Seung-Kee; Kim, Mi-Sook; Joo, Kwon Wook; Kim, Jungsun; Ha, Jongwon; Lee, Joongyub; Min, Sang-Il

2016-10-07

Use of arteriovenous fistulas, the most preferred type of access for hemodialysis, is limited by their high maturation failure rate. The aim of this study was to assess whether aggressive surveillance with routine duplex ultrasound and intervention can decrease the maturation failure rate of arteriovenous fistulas. We conducted a single-center, parallel-group, randomized, controlled trial of patients undergoing autogenous arteriovenous fistula. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to either the routine duplex or selective duplex group. In the routine duplex group, duplex ultrasound and physical examination were performed 2, 4, and 8 weeks postoperatively. In the selective duplex group, duplex examination was performed only when physical examination detected an abnormality. The primary end point was the maturation failure rate 8 weeks after fistula creation. Maturation failure was defined as the inability to achieve clinical maturation ( i.e. , a successful first use) and failure to achieve sonographic maturation (fistula flow >500 ml/min and diameter >6 mm) within 8 weeks. Between June 14, 2012, and June 25, 2014, 150 patients were enrolled (75 patients in each group), and 118 of those were included in the final analysis. The maturation failure rate was lower in the routine duplex group (8 of 59; 13.6%) than in the selective duplex group (15 of 59; 25.4%), but the difference was not statistically significant (odds ratio, 0.46; 95% confidence interval, 0.18 to 1.19; P =0.10). Factors associated with maturation failure were women (odds ratio, 3.84; 95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 14.06; P =0.04), coronary artery disease (odds ratio, 6.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.62 to 24.95; P <0.01), diabetes (odds ratio, 6.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.76 to 21.19; P <0.01), and the preoperative cephalic vein diameter (odds ratio, 0.30; 95% confidence interval, 0.13 to 0.71; P <0.01). Postoperative routine duplex surveillance failed to prove superiority compared with selective duplex after physical examination for reducing arteriovenous fistula maturation failure. However, the wide 95% confidence interval for the effect of intervention precludes a firm conclusion that routine duplex surveillance was not beneficial. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Quantitative fetal fibronectin and cervical length to predict preterm birth in asymptomatic women with previous cervical surgery.

PubMed

Vandermolen, Brooke I; Hezelgrave, Natasha L; Smout, Elizabeth M; Abbott, Danielle S; Seed, Paul T; Shennan, Andrew H

2016-10-01

Quantitative fetal fibronectin testing has demonstrated accuracy for prediction of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic women with a history of preterm birth. Predictive accuracy in women with previous cervical surgery (a potentially different risk mechanism) is not known. We sought to compare the predictive accuracy of cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin and cervical length testing in asymptomatic women with previous cervical surgery to that in women with 1 previous preterm birth. We conducted a prospective blinded secondary analysis of a larger observational study of cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin concentration in asymptomatic women measured with a Hologic 10Q system (Hologic, Marlborough, MA). Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth (<30, <34, and <37 weeks) with cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin concentration in primiparous women who had undergone at least 1 invasive cervical procedure (n = 473) was compared with prediction in women who had previous spontaneous preterm birth, preterm prelabor rupture of membranes, or late miscarriage (n = 821). Relationship with cervical length was explored. The rate of spontaneous preterm birth <34 weeks in the cervical surgery group was 3% compared with 9% in previous spontaneous preterm birth group. Receiver operating characteristic curves comparing quantitative fetal fibronectin for prediction at all 3 gestational end points were comparable between the cervical surgery and previous spontaneous preterm birth groups (34 weeks: area under the curve, 0.78 [95% confidence interval 0.64-0.93] vs 0.71 [95% confidence interval 0.64-0.78]; P = .39). Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth using cervical length compared with quantitative fetal fibronectin for prediction of preterm birth <34 weeks of gestation offered similar prediction (area under the curve, 0.88 [95% confidence interval 0.79-0.96] vs 0.77 [95% confidence interval 0.62-0.92], P = .12 in the cervical surgery group; and 0.77 [95% confidence interval 0.70-0.84] vs 0.74 [95% confidence interval 0.67-0.81], P = .32 in the previous spontaneous preterm birth group). Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth using cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin in asymptomatic women with cervical surgery is valid, and has comparative accuracy to that in women with a history of spontaneous preterm birth. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Myocardial Perfusion Imaging Versus Visual Analysis in Diagnosing Myocardial Ischemia: A CE-MARC Substudy.

PubMed

Biglands, John D; Ibraheem, Montasir; Magee, Derek R; Radjenovic, Aleksandra; Plein, Sven; Greenwood, John P

2018-05-01

This study sought to compare the diagnostic accuracy of visual and quantitative analyses of myocardial perfusion cardiovascular magnetic resonance against a reference standard of quantitative coronary angiography. Visual analysis of perfusion cardiovascular magnetic resonance studies for assessing myocardial perfusion has been shown to have high diagnostic accuracy for coronary artery disease. However, only a few small studies have assessed the diagnostic accuracy of quantitative myocardial perfusion. This retrospective study included 128 patients randomly selected from the CE-MARC (Clinical Evaluation of Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Coronary Heart Disease) study population such that the distribution of risk factors and disease status was proportionate to the full population. Visual analysis results of cardiovascular magnetic resonance perfusion images, by consensus of 2 expert readers, were taken from the original study reports. Quantitative myocardial blood flow estimates were obtained using Fermi-constrained deconvolution. The reference standard for myocardial ischemia was a quantitative coronary x-ray angiogram stenosis severity of ≥70% diameter in any coronary artery of >2 mm diameter, or ≥50% in the left main stem. Diagnostic performance was calculated using receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis. The area under the curve for visual analysis was 0.88 (95% confidence interval: 0.81 to 0.95) with a sensitivity of 81.0% (95% confidence interval: 69.1% to 92.8%) and specificity of 86.0% (95% confidence interval: 78.7% to 93.4%). For quantitative stress myocardial blood flow the area under the curve was 0.89 (95% confidence interval: 0.83 to 0.96) with a sensitivity of 87.5% (95% confidence interval: 77.3% to 97.7%) and specificity of 84.5% (95% confidence interval: 76.8% to 92.3%). There was no statistically significant difference between the diagnostic performance of quantitative and visual analyses (p = 0.72). Incorporating rest myocardial blood flow values to generate a myocardial perfusion reserve did not significantly increase the quantitative analysis area under the curve (p = 0.79). Quantitative perfusion has a high diagnostic accuracy for detecting coronary artery disease but is not superior to visual analysis. The incorporation of rest perfusion imaging does not improve diagnostic accuracy in quantitative perfusion analysis. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Factors influencing repeated teenage pregnancy: a review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Maravilla, Joemer C; Betts, Kim S; Couto E Cruz, Camila; Alati, Rosa

2017-11-01

Existing evidence of predictors of repeated teenage pregnancy has not been assessed rigorously. This systematic review provides a comprehensive evaluation of protective and risk factors that are associated with repeated teenage pregnancy through a metaanalytical consensus. We used PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, ProQuest, PsychINFO, ScienceDirect, Scopus, and Web of Science databases from 1997-2015 and the reference list of other relevant research papers and related reviews. Eligibility criteria included (1) epidemiologic studies that analyzed factors associated with repeated pregnancy or birth among adolescents <20 years of age who were nulliparous or experienced at least 1 pregnancy, and (2) experimental studies with an observational component that was adjusted for the intervention. We performed narrative synthesis of study characteristics, participant characteristics, study results, and quality assessment. We also conducted random-effects and quality-effects metaanalyses with meta-regression to obtain pooled odds ratios of identified factors and to determine sources of between-study heterogeneity. Twenty-six eligible epidemiologic studies, most from the United States (n=24), showed >47 factors with no evidence of publication bias for each metaanalysis. Use of contraception (pooled odds ratio, 0.60; 95% confidence interval, 0.35-1.02), particularly long-acting reversible contraceptives (pooled odds ratio, 0.19; 95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.45), considerably reduced repeated teenage pregnancy risk. Among studies about contraception, the number of follow-up visits (adjusted coefficient, 0.72; P=.102) and country of study (unadjusted coefficient, 2.57; permuted P=.071) explained between-study heterogeneity. Education-related factors, which included higher level of education (pooled odds ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.91) and school continuation (pooled odds ratio, 0.53; 95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.84), were found to be protective. Conversely, depression (pooled odds ratio, 1.46; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.87), history of abortion (pooled odds ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.54), and relationship factors, such as partner support, increased the repeated teenage pregnancy risk. Contraceptive use, educational factors, depression, and a history of abortion are the highly influential predictors of repeated teenage pregnancy. However, there is a lack of epidemiologic studies in low- and middle-income countries to measure the extent and characteristics of repeated teenage pregnancy across more varied settings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Provider use of a participatory decision-making style with youth and caregivers and satisfaction with pediatric asthma visits

PubMed Central

Sleath, Betsy; Carpenter, Delesha M; Coyne, Imelda; Davis, Scott A; Hayes Watson, Claire; Loughlin, Ceila E; Garcia, Nacire; Reuland, Daniel S; Tudor, Gail E

2018-01-01

Background We conducted a randomized controlled trial to test the effectiveness of an asthma question prompt list with video intervention to engage the youth during clinic visits. We examined whether the intervention was associated with 1) providers including youth and caregiver inputs more into asthma treatment regimens, 2) youth and caregivers rating providers as using more of a participatory decision-making style, and 3) youth and caregivers being more satisfied with visits. Methods English- or Spanish-speaking youth aged 11–17 years with persistent asthma and their caregivers were recruited from four pediatric clinics and randomized to the intervention or usual care groups. The youth in the intervention group watched the video with their caregivers on an iPad and completed a one-page asthma question prompt list before their clinic visits. All visits were audiotaped. Generalized estimating equations were used to analyze the data. Results Forty providers and their patients (n=359) participated in this study. Providers included youth input into the asthma management treatment regimens during 2.5% of visits and caregiver input during 3.3% of visits. The youth in the intervention group were significantly more likely to rate their providers as using more of a participatory decision-making style (odds ratio=1.7, 95% confidence interval=1.1, 2.5). White caregivers were significantly more likely to rate the providers as more participatory (odds ratio=2.3, 95% confidence interval=1.2, 4.4). Youth (beta=4.9, 95% confidence interval=3.3, 6.5) and caregivers (beta=7.5, 95% confidence interval=3.1, 12.0) who rated their providers as being more participatory were significantly more satisfied with their visits. Youth (beta=−1.9, 95% confidence interval=−3.4, −0.4) and caregivers (beta=−8.8, 95% confidence interval=−16.2, −1.3) who spoke Spanish at home were less satisfied with visits. Conclusion The intervention did not increase the inclusion of youth and caregiver inputs into asthma treatment regimens. However, it did increase the youth’s perception of participatory decision-making style of the providers, and this in turn was associated with greater satisfaction. PMID:29785146

Epidemiology of 1.6 million pediatric soccer-related injuries presenting to US emergency departments from 1990 to 2003.

PubMed

Leininger, Robert E; Knox, Christy L; Comstock, R Dawn

2007-02-01

As soccer participation in the United States increases, so does the number of children at risk for injury. To examine pediatric soccer-related injuries presenting to US emergency departments from 1990 to 2003. Descriptive epidemiology study. A descriptive analysis of nationally representative, pediatric, soccer-related injury data from the US Consumer Product Safety Commission's National Electronic Injury Surveillance System. Among those 2 to 18 years of age, a nationally estimated 1597528 soccer-related injuries presented to US emergency departments from 1990 to 2003. Mean age was 13.2 years (range, 2-18 years); 58.6% were male. From 1990 to 2003, there was an increase in the absolute number of injuries among girls (P < .0001). The wrist/finger/hand (20.3%), ankle (18.2%), and knee (11.4%) were the most commonly injured body parts. The most common diagnoses were sprain/strain (35.9%), contusion/abrasion (24.1%), and fracture (23.2%). Boys were more likely to have face and head/neck injuries (17.7%; relative risk, 1.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.32-1.49; P < .01) and lacerations/punctures (7.5%; relative risk, 3.31; 95% confidence interval, 2.93-3.74; P < .01) than were girls (12.7% and 2.3%, respectively). Girls were more likely to have ankle injuries (21.8%; relative risk, 1.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-1.45; P < .01) and knee injuries (12.9%; relative risk, 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-1.35; P < .01) than were boys (15.7% and 10.4%, respectively). Girls were more likely to have sprains or strains (42.4%) than were boys (31.3%; relative risk, 1.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-1.40; P < .01). Children 2 to 4 years old sustained a higher proportion of face and head/neck injuries (41.0%) than did older children (15.5%; relative risk, 2.65; 95% confidence interval, 2.09-3.36; P < .01). When comparing these data to available national statistics that estimate participation in youth soccer, true injury rates may actually be decreasing for boys and girls. Young children should be closely supervised because of risk of head injuries and rate of hospitalization. The establishment of a national database of soccer participation and injury data is needed to better identify injury risks.

Effects of weight loss interventions for adults who are obese on mortality, cardiovascular disease, and cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ma, Chenhan; Avenell, Alison; Bolland, Mark; Hudson, Jemma; Stewart, Fiona; Robertson, Clare; Sharma, Pawana; Fraser, Cynthia; MacLennan, Graeme

2017-11-14

Objective  To assess whether weight loss interventions for adults with obesity affect all cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and body weight. Design  Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) using random effects, estimating risk ratios, and mean differences. Heterogeneity investigated using Cochran's Q and I 2 statistics. Quality of evidence assessed by GRADE criteria. Data sources  Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and full texts in our trials' registry for data not evident in databases. Authors were contacted for unpublished data. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies  RCTs of dietary interventions targeting weight loss, with or without exercise advice or programmes, for adults with obesity and follow-up ≥1 year. Results  54 RCTs with 30 206 participants were identified. All but one trial evaluated low fat, weight reducing diets. For the primary outcome, high quality evidence showed that weight loss interventions decrease all cause mortality (34 trials, 685 events; risk ratio 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.95), with six fewer deaths per 1000 participants (95% confidence interval two to 10). For other primary outcomes moderate quality evidence showed an effect on cardiovascular mortality (eight trials, 134 events; risk ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.67 to 1.31), and very low quality evidence showed an effect on cancer mortality (eight trials, 34 events; risk ratio 0.58, 95% confidence interval 0.30 to 1.11). Twenty four trials (15 176 participants) reported high quality evidence on participants developing new cardiovascular events (1043 events; risk ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.83 to 1.04). Nineteen trials (6330 participants) provided very low quality evidence on participants developing new cancers (103 events; risk ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 1.36). Conclusions  Weight reducing diets, usually low in fat and saturated fat, with or without exercise advice or programmes, may reduce premature all cause mortality in adults with obesity. Systematic review registration  PROSPERO CRD42016033217. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Prospective study of physical activity and risk of postmenopausal breast cancer

PubMed Central

Leitzmann, Michael F; Moore, Steven C; Peters, Tricia M; Lacey, James V; Schatzkin, Arthur; Schairer, Catherine; Brinton, Louise A; Albanes, Demetrius

2008-01-01

Introduction To prospectively examine the relation of total, vigorous and non-vigorous physical activity to postmenopausal breast cancer risk. Methods We studied 32,269 women enrolled in the Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project Follow-up Study. Usual physical activity (including household, occupational and leisure activities) throughout the previous year was assessed at baseline using a self-administered questionnaire. Postmenopausal breast cancer cases were identified through self-reports, death certificates and linkage to state cancer registries. A Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the relative risk and 95% confidence intervals of postmenopausal breast cancer associated with physical activity. Results During 269,792 person-years of follow-up from 1987 to 1998, 1506 new incident cases of postmenopausal breast cancer were ascertained. After adjusting for potential risk factors of breast cancer, a weak inverse association between total physical activity and postmenopausal breast cancer was suggested (relative risk comparing extreme quintiles = 0.87; 95% confidence interval = 0.74 to 1.02; p for trend = 0.21). That relation was almost entirely contributed by vigorous activity (relative risk comparing extreme categories = 0.87; 95% confidence interval = 0.74 to 1.02; p for trend = 0.08). The inverse association with vigorous activity was limited to women who were lean (ie, body mass index <25.0 kg/m2: relative risk = 0.68; 95% confidence interval = 0.54 to 0.85). In contrast, no association with vigorous activity was noted among women who were overweight or obese (ie, body mass index ≥ 25.0 kg/m2: relative risk = 1.18; 95% confidence interval = 0.93 to 1.49; p for interaction = 0.008). Non-vigorous activity showed no relation to breast cancer (relative risk comparing extreme quintiles = 1.02; 95% confidence interval = 0.87 to 1.19; p for trend = 0.86). The physical activity and breast cancer relation was not specific to a certain hormone receptor subtype. Conclusions In this cohort of postmenopausal women, breast cancer risk reduction appeared to be limited to vigorous forms of activity; it was apparent among normal weight women but not overweight women, and the relation did not vary by hormone receptor status. Our findings suggest that physical activity acts through underlying biological mechanisms that are independent of body weight control. PMID:18976449

Contraceptive confidence and timing of first birth in Moldova: an event history analysis of retrospective data.

PubMed

Lyons-Amos, Mark; Padmadas, Sabu S; Durrant, Gabriele B

2014-08-11

To test the contraceptive confidence hypothesis in a modern context. The hypothesis is that women using effective or modern contraceptive methods have increased contraceptive confidence and hence a shorter interval between marriage and first birth than users of ineffective or traditional methods. We extend the hypothesis to incorporate the role of abortion, arguing that it acts as a substitute for contraception in the study context. Moldova, a country in South-East Europe. Moldova exhibits high use of traditional contraceptive methods and abortion compared with other European countries. Data are from a secondary analysis of the 2005 Moldovan Demographic and Health Survey, a nationally representative sample survey. 5377 unmarried women were selected. The outcome measure was the interval between marriage and first birth. This was modelled using a piecewise-constant hazard regression, with abortion and contraceptive method types as primary variables along with relevant sociodemographic controls. Women with high contraceptive confidence (modern method users) have a higher cumulative hazard of first birth 36 months following marriage (0.88 (0.87 to 0.89)) compared with women with low contraceptive confidence (traditional method users, cumulative hazard: 0.85 (0.84 to 0.85)). This is consistent with the contraceptive confidence hypothesis. There is a higher cumulative hazard of first birth among women with low (0.80 (0.79 to 0.80)) and moderate abortion propensities (0.76 (0.75 to 0.77)) than women with no abortion propensity (0.73 (0.72 to 0.74)) 24 months after marriage. Effective contraceptive use tends to increase contraceptive confidence and is associated with a shorter interval between marriage and first birth. Increased use of abortion also tends to increase contraceptive confidence and shorten birth duration, although this effect is non-linear-women with a very high use of abortion tend to have lengthy intervals between marriage and first birth. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Prevalence and clinical profile of microcephaly in South America pre-Zika, 2005-14: prevalence and case-control study

PubMed Central

Dolk, Helen; Lopez-Camelo, Jorge S; Mattos, Daniel; Poletta, Fernando A; Dutra, Maria G; Carvalho, Flavia M; Castilla, Eduardo E

2017-01-01

Objective To describe the prevalence and clinical spectrum of microcephaly in South America for the period 2005-14, before the start of the Zika epidemic in 2015, as a baseline for future surveillance as the Zika epidemic spreads and as other infectious causes may emerge in future. Design Prevalence and case-control study. Data sources ECLAMC (Latin American Collaborative Study of Congenital Malformations) database derived from 107 hospitals in 10 South American countries, 2005 to 2014. Data on microcephaly cases, four non-malformed controls per case, and all hospital births (all births for hospital based prevalence, resident within municipality for population based prevalence). For 2010-14, head circumference data were available and compared with Intergrowth charts. Results 552 microcephaly cases were registered, giving a hospital based prevalence of 4.4 (95% confidence interval 4.1 to 4.9) per 10 000 births and a population based prevalence of 3.0 (2.7 to 3.4) per 10 000. Prevalence varied significantly between countries and between regions and hospitals within countries. Thirty two per cent (n=175) of cases were prenatally diagnosed; 29% (n=159) were perinatal deaths. Twenty three per cent (n=128) were associated with a diagnosed genetic syndrome, 34% (n=189) polymalformed without a syndrome diagnosis, 12% (n=65) with associated neural malformations, and 26% (n=145) microcephaly only. In addition, 3.8% (n=21) had a STORCH (syphilis, toxoplasmosis, other including HIV, rubella, cytomegalovirus, and herpes simplex) infection diagnosis and 2.0% (n=11) had consanguineous parents. Head circumference measurements available for 184/235 cases in 2010-14 showed 45% (n=82) more than 3 SD below the mean, 24% (n=44) between 3 SD and 2 SD below the mean, and 32% (n=58) larger than −2 SD. Conclusion Extrapolated to the nearly 7 million annual births in South America, an estimated 2000-2500 microcephaly cases were diagnosed among births each year before the Zika epidemic began in 2015. Clinicians are using more than simple metrics to make microcephaly diagnoses. Endemic infections are important enduring causes of microcephaly. PMID:29162597

Racism, ethnic density and psychological well-being through adolescence: evidence from the Determinants of Adolescent Social well-being and Health longitudinal study

PubMed Central

Astell-Burt, Thomas; Maynard, Maria J.; Lenguerrand, Erik; Harding, Seeromanie

2012-01-01

Objective. To investigate the effect of racism, own-group ethnic density, diversity and deprivation on adolescent trajectories in psychological well-being. Design. Multilevel models were used in longitudinal analysis of psychological well-being (total difficulties score (TDS) from Goodman's Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, higher scores correspond to greater difficulties) for 4782 adolescents aged 11–16 years in 51 London (UK) schools. Individual level variables included ethnicity, racism, gender, age, migrant generation, socioeconomic circumstances, family type and indicators of family interactions (shared activities, perceived parenting). Contextual variables were per cent eligible for free school-meals, neighbourhood deprivation, per cent own-group ethnic density, and ethnic diversity. Results. Ethnic minorities were more likely to report racism than Whites. Ethnic minority boys (except Indian boys) and Indian girls reported better psychological well-being throughout adolescence compared to their White peers. Notably, lowest mean TDS scores were observed for Nigerian/Ghanaian boys, among whom the reporting of racism increased with age. Adjusted for individual characteristics, psychological well-being improved with age across all ethnic groups. Racism was associated with poorer psychological well-being trajectories for all ethnic groups (p <0.001), reducing with age. For example, mean difference in TDS (95% confidence interval) between boys who experienced racism and those who did not at age 12 years = 1.88 (+1.75 to + 2.01); at 16 years = +1.19 (+1.07 to +1.31). Less racism was generally reported in schools and neighbourhoods with high than low own-group density. Own ethnic density and diversity were not consistently associated with TDS for any ethnic group. Living in more deprived neighbourhoods was associated with poorer psychological well-being for Whites and Black Caribbeans (p <0.05). Conclusion. Racism, but not ethnic density and deprivation in schools or neighbourhoods, was an important influence on psychological well-being. However, exposure to racism did not explain the advantage in psychological well-being of ethnic minority groups over Whites. PMID:22332834

A global country-level comparison of the financial burden of surgery.

PubMed

Shrime, M G; Dare, A; Alkire, B C; Meara, J G

2016-10-01

Approximately 30 per cent of the global burden of disease is surgical, and nearly one-quarter of individuals who undergo surgery each year face financial hardship because of its cost. The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery has proposed the elimination of impoverishment due to surgery by 2030, but no country-level estimates exist of the financial burden of surgical access. Using publicly available data, the incidence and risk of financial hardship owing to surgery was estimated for each country. Four measures of financial catastrophe were examined: catastrophic expenditure, and impoverishment at the national poverty line, at 2 international dollars (I$) per day and at I$1·25 per day. Stochastic models of income and surgical costs were built for each country. Results were validated against available primary data. Direct medical costs of surgery put 43·9 (95 per cent posterior credible interval 2·2 to 87·1) per cent of the examined population at risk of catastrophic expenditure, and 57·0 (21·8 to 85·1) per cent at risk of being pushed below I$2 per day. The risk of financial hardship from surgery was highest in sub-Saharan Africa. Correlations were found between the risk of financial catastrophe and external financing of healthcare (positive correlation), national measures of well-being (negative correlation) and the percentage of a country's gross domestic product spent on healthcare (negative correlation). The model performed well against primary data on the costs of surgery. Country-specific estimates of financial catastrophe owing to surgical care are presented. The economic benefits projected to occur with the scale-up of surgery are placed at risk if the financial burden of accessing surgery is not addressed in national policies. © 2016 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Simulating the UV escape fractions from molecular cloud populations in star-forming dwarf and spiral galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, Corey S.; Pudritz, Ralph E.; Harris, William E.; Klessen, Ralf S.

2018-04-01

The escape of ultraviolet photons from the densest regions of the interstellar medium (ISM) - giant molecular clouds (GMCs) - is a poorly constrained parameter which is vital to understanding the ionization of the ISM and the intergalactic medium. We characterize the escape fraction, fesc,GMC, from a suite of individual GMC simulations with masses in the range 104-6 M⊙ using the adaptive-mesh refinement code FLASH. We find significantly different fesc,GMC depending on the GMC mass that can reach >90 per cent in the evolution of 5 × 104 and 105 M⊙ clouds or remain low at ˜5 per cent for most of the lifetime of more massive GMCs. All clouds show fluctuations over short, sub-Myr time-scales produced by flickering H II regions. We combine our results to calculate the total escape fraction (fesc,tot) from GMC populations in dwarf starburst and spiral galaxies by randomly drawing clouds from a GMC mass distribution (dN/dM ∝ Mα, where α is either -1.5 or -2.5) over fixed time intervals. We find typical fesc,tot values of 8 per cent for both the dwarf and spiral models. The fluctuations of fesc,tot, however, are much larger for the dwarf models with values as high as 90 per cent. The photons escaping from the 5 × 104 and 105 M⊙ GMCs are the dominant contributors to fesc,tot in all cases. We also show that the accompanying star formation rates (SFRs) of our model (˜2 × 10-2 and 0.73 M⊙yr-1) are consistent with observations of SFRs in dwarf starburst and spiral galaxies, respectively.

The confidence-accuracy relationship for eyewitness identification decisions: Effects of exposure duration, retention interval, and divided attention.

PubMed

Palmer, Matthew A; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Nagesh, Ambika

2013-03-01

Prior research points to a meaningful confidence-accuracy (CA) relationship for positive identification decisions. However, there are theoretical grounds for expecting that different aspects of the CA relationship (calibration, resolution, and over/underconfidence) might be undermined in some circumstances. This research investigated whether the CA relationship for eyewitness identification decisions is affected by three, forensically relevant variables: exposure duration, retention interval, and divided attention at encoding. In Study 1 (N = 986), a field experiment, we examined the effects of exposure duration (5 s vs. 90 s) and retention interval (immediate testing vs. a 1-week delay) on the CA relationship. In Study 2 (N = 502), we examined the effects of attention during encoding on the CA relationship by reanalyzing data from a laboratory experiment in which participants viewed a stimulus video under full or divided attention conditions and then attempted to identify two targets from separate lineups. Across both studies, all three manipulations affected identification accuracy. The central analyses concerned the CA relation for positive identification decisions. For the manipulations of exposure duration and retention interval, overconfidence was greater in the more difficult conditions (shorter exposure; delayed testing) than the easier conditions. Only the exposure duration manipulation influenced resolution (which was better for 5 s than 90 s), and only the retention interval manipulation affected calibration (which was better for immediate testing than delayed testing). In all experimental conditions, accuracy and diagnosticity increased with confidence, particularly at the upper end of the confidence scale. Implications for theory and forensic settings are discussed.

Does the virtual refractor patient-simulator improve student competency when refracting in the consulting room?

PubMed

Alhazmi, Mohammed S; Butler, Craig W; Junghans, Barbara M

2018-06-12

The use of patient simulators in ophthalmic education appears limited. This study examines the effects of the addition of the 'Virtual Refractor' patient simulator learning activity into a short unit preparing students to determine the power of the spectacle lenses required by patients in a clinic. Twenty-four year one optometry students were randomly assigned to either the simulator-intervention group (n = 12) or the non-intervention group. All students attended tutorials on refraction and the use of a refractor-head. Simulator-intervention students additionally attended a tutorial on the Virtual Refractor. All answered a questionnaire concerning time spent studying, perceived knowledge and confidence. Twenty-four short-sighted patients were recruited. Two refractions per student were timed and the accuracy compared with that of an experienced optometrist. Ten students from each group completed the study. Students who used the simulator were significantly (p < 0.05) more accurate at a clinical level (within 0.22 ± 0.22 DS, 95 per cent CI 0.12-0.32) than those who did not (within 0.60 ± 0.67 DS, 95 per cent CI 0.29-0.92) and 13 per cent quicker (4.7 minutes, p < 0.05). Students who used the simulator felt more knowledgeable (p < 0.05) and confident (p < 0.05), but had spent more time reading about refraction and practised on the Virtual Refractor at home for 5.7 ± 1.3 hours. The Virtual Refractor has many features of high-fidelity medical simulation known to lead to effective learning and it also offers flexible independent learning without a concomitant increase in the student time-burden. The improved accuracy and speed on first patient encounters found in this study validates the use of this patient simulator as a useful bridge for students early in training to successfully transfer theoretical knowledge prior to entering the consulting room. The translational benefits resulting from compulsory learning activities on a patient simulator can lead to reduced demands on infrastructure and clinical supervision. © 2018 Optometry Australia.

Microcephaly Case Fatality Rate Associated with Zika Virus Infection in Brazil: Current Estimates.

PubMed

Cunha, Antonio José Ledo Alves da; de Magalhães-Barbosa, Maria Clara; Lima-Setta, Fernanda; Medronho, Roberto de Andrade; Prata-Barbosa, Arnaldo

2017-05-01

Considering the currently confirmed cases of microcephaly and related deaths associated with Zika virus in Brazil, the estimated case fatality rate is 8.3% (95% confidence interval: 7.2-9.6). However, a third of the reported cases remain under investigation. If the confirmation rates of cases and deaths are the same in the future, the estimated case fatality rate will be as high as 10.5% (95% confidence interval: 9.5-11.7).

The role of latex agglutination test for the etiological diagnosis of pleural effusion in children and adolescents.

PubMed

Camargos, Paulo; Fonseca, Ana Cristina; Amantéa, Sérgio; Oliveira, Elizabeth; Benfica, Maria das Graças; Chamone, Chequer

2017-05-01

The etiological diagnosis of pleural effusion is a difficult task because the diagnostic tools can only establish a definitive etiological diagnosis in at most 76% of cases. To verify the diagnostic accuracy of the latex agglutination test (LAT) for the etiological diagnosis of pleural effusions caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae type b. After thoracocentesis, paired fresh samples of pleural fluid from 418 children and adolescents were included in this investigation. They were tested blindly and simultaneously through counterimmunoelectrophoresis (CIE) and LAT for both bacteria. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated taking CIE as a reference standard. The sensitivity and specificity of LAT was 100% (95% confidence interval, 94.4%-100%) and 83.3% (95% confidence interval, 79.0%-87.0%), respectively, whereas the positive (calculated from Bayes' theorem) and negative predictive values were, respectively, lower than 1% and 100% (95% confidence interval, 98.8%-100%). Positive and negative LR were 6.0 (95% confidence interval, 4.7-7.6) and zero, respectively. Our results suggest that LAT is a useful tool for the etiological diagnosis of pleural effusion. It is a reliable, rapid, simple to perform and shows an excellent yield in our studied population, helping to prescribe appropriate antibiotics for this clinical condition. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Physician-led, hospital-linked, birth care centers can decrease cesarean section rates without increasing rates of adverse events.

PubMed

O'Hara, Margaret H; Frazier, Linda M; Stembridge, Travis W; McKay, Robert S; Mohr, Sandra N; Shalat, Stuart L

2013-09-01

This study compares outcomes at a hospital-linked, physician-led, birthing center to a traditional hospital labor and delivery service. Using de-identified electronic medical records, a retrospective cohort design was employed to evaluate 32,174 singleton births during 1998-2005. Compared with hospital service, birth care center delivery was associated with a lower rate of cesarean sections (adjusted Relative Risk = 0.73, 95% confidence interval 0.59-0.91; p < 0.001) without an increased rate of operative vaginal delivery (adjusted Relative Risk = 1.04, 95% confidence interval 0.97-1.13; p = 0.25) and a higher initiation of breastfeeding (adjusted Relative Risk = 1.28, 95% confidence interval 1.25-1.30; p ≤ 0.001). A maternal length of stay greater than 72 hours occurred less frequently in the birth care center (adjusted Relative Risk = 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.55-0.66; p < 0.001). Comparing only women without major obstetrical risk factors, the differences in outcomes were reduced but not eliminated. Adverse maternal and infant outcomes were not increased at the birth care center. A hospital-linked, physician-led, birth care center has the potential to lower rates of cesarean sections without increasing rates of operative vaginal delivery or other adverse maternal and infant outcomes. © 2013, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2013, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Amnioinfusion for preterm rupture of membranes.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2000-01-01

Preterm rupture of membranes places a fetus at risk of cord compression and amnionitis. Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for preterm rupture of membranes on maternal and perinatal outcomes. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register were searched. Randomised trials of amnioinfusion compared to no amnioinfusion in women with preterm rupture of membranes. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by the reviewer. One trial of 66 women was included. It had some methodological flaws. No significant differences between amnioinfusion and no amnioinfusion were detected for caesarean section (relative risk 0.32, 95% confidence interval 0.07 to 1.40); low Apgar scores (relative risk 0.28, 95% confidence interval 0.03 to 2.33) or neonatal death (relative risk 0.55, 95% confidence interval 0.05 to 5.77). In the amnioinfusion group, the number of severe fetal heart rate decelerations per hour during the first stage of labour were reduced (weighted mean difference -1.20, 95% confidence interval -1.83 to -0.57). These outcomes are consistent with those found in the Cochrane review on amnioinfusion for cord compression. There is not enough evidence concerning the use of amnioinfusion for preterm rupture of membranes.

A randomized clinical trial with two doses of an enteral diabetes-specific suplements in elderly patients with diabetes mellitus type 2.

PubMed

de Luis, D A; Izaola, O; de la Fuente, B; Terroba, M C; Cuellar, L; Cabezas, G

2013-06-01

The aim of our study was to investigate whether two different daily doses of a high monounsaturated fatty acid (MUFA) specific diabetes enteral formula could improve nutritional variables as well as metabolic parameters. We conducted a randomized, open-label, multicenter, parallel group study. 27 patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 with recent weight loss were randomized to one of two study groups: group 1 (two cans per day) and group 2 (three cans per day) for a ten week period. A significative decrease of HbA1c was detected in both groups. The decrease 0.98% (confidence interval 95% 0.19-1.88) was higher in group 2 than group 1 0.60% (confidence interval 95% 0.14-1.04). A significant increase of weight, body mass index, fat mass, albumin, prealbumin and transferrin was observed in both groups without statistical differences in this improvement between both groups. The increase of weight 4.59kg (confidence interval 95% 1.71-9.49) was higher in group 2 than group 1 1.46% (confidence interval 95% 0.39-2.54). Gastrointestinal tolerance (diarrhea episodes) with both formulas was good, without statistical differences (7.60% vs 7.14%: ns). A high monounsaturated fatty acid diabetes-specific supplement improved HbA1c and nutritional status. These improvements were higher with three supplements than with two per day.

Prevalence of tics in schoolchildren in central Spain: a population-based study.

PubMed

Cubo, Esther; Gabriel y Galán, José María Trejo; Villaverde, Vanesa Ausín; Velasco, Sara Sáez; Benito, Vanesa Delgado; Macarrón, Jesús Vicente; Guevara, José Cordero; Louis, Elan D; Benito-León, Julián

2011-08-01

Tic disorders constitute a neurodevelopmental disorder of childhood. This study sought to determine the prevalence of tic disorders in a school-based sample. A randomized sample of 1158 schoolchildren, based on clusters (classrooms) in the province of Burgos (Spain), was identified on a stratified sampling frame combining types of educational center and setting (mainstream schools and special education), using a two-phase approach (screening and diagnosis ascertainment by a neurologist). Tics with/without impairment criterion were diagnosed according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders criteria. In mainstream schools, tics were observed in 125/741 students (16.86%; 95% confidence interval, 14.10-19.63), and were more frequent in boys (87/448, 19.42%; 95% confidence interval, 15.64-23.19) compared with girls (38/293, 12.96%; 95% confidence interval, 8.95-16.98; P = 0.03). In special education centers, tics disorders were observed in 11/54 of children (20.37%; 95% confidence interval, 8.70-32.03). Overall, tics with impairment criteria were less frequent than tics without impairment criteria (4.65% vs 11.85%, P < 0.0001). The most frequent diagnoses involved chronic motor tics (6.07%) and Tourette syndrome (5.26%). Tic disorders are common in childhood, and the use or nonuse of impairment criteria exerts a significant impact on tic prevalence estimates. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vitrification versus slow freezing gives excellent survival, post warming embryo morphology and pregnancy outcomes for human cleaved embryos.

PubMed

Rezazadeh Valojerdi, Mojtaba; Eftekhari-Yazdi, Poopak; Karimian, Leila; Hassani, Fatemeh; Movaghar, Bahar

2009-06-01

The objective of this retrospective study was to evaluate the efficacy of vitrification and slow freezing for the cryopreservation of human cleavage stage embryos in terms of post-warming survival rate, post-warming embryo morphology and clinical outcomes. The embryos of 305 patients at cleavage stages were cryopreserved either with vitrification (153 patients) or slow-freezing (152 patients) methods. After warming; the survival rate, post-warmed embryo morphology, clinical pregnancy and implantation rates were evaluated and compared between the two groups. In the vitrification group versus slow freezing group, the survival rate (96.9% vs. 82.8%) and the post-warmed excellent morphology with all blastomeres intact (91.8% vs. 56.2%) were higher with an odds ratio of 6.607 (95% confidence interval; 4.184-10.434) and 8.769 (95% confidence interval; 6.460-11.904), respectively. In this group, the clinical pregnancy rate (40.5% vs. 21.4%) and the implantation rate (16.6% vs. 6.8%) were also higher with an odds ratio of 2.427 (95%confidence interval; 1.461-4.033) and 2.726 (95% confidence interval; 1.837-4.046), respectively. Vitrification in contrast to slow freezing is an efficient method for cryopreservation of human cleavage stage embryos. Vitrification provides a higher survival rate, minimal deleterious effects on post-warming embryo morphology and it can improve clinical outcomes.

New-onset diabetes after pancreatoduodenectomy: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Scholten, Lianne; Mungroop, Timothy H; Haijtink, Simone A L; Issa, Yama; van Rijssen, L Bengt; Koerkamp, Bas Groot; van Eijck, Casper H; Busch, Olivier R; DeVries, J Hans; Besselink, Marc G

2018-05-17

Pancreatoduodenectomy may lead to new-onset diabetes mellitus, also known as type 3c diabetes, but the exact risk of this complication is unknown. The aim of this review was to assess the risk of new-onset diabetes mellitus after pancreatoduodenectomy. A literature search was performed in PubMed, Embase (Ovid), and the Cochrane Library for English articles published from March 1993 until March 2017 (PROSPERO registry number: CRD42016039784). Studies reporting on the risk of new-onset diabetes mellitus after pancreatoduodenectomy were included. For meta-analysis, studies were pooled using the random-effects model. All studies were appraised according to the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. After screening 1,523 studies, 22 studies involving 1,121 patients were eligible. The mean weighted overall proportion of new-onset diabetes mellitus after pancreatoduodenectomy was 16% (95% confidence interval, 12%-20%). We found no significant difference in risk of new-onset diabetes mellitus when pancreatoduodenectomy was performed for nonmalignant disease after excluding patients with chronic pancreatitis (19% risk; 95% confidence interval, 7%-43%; 6 studies) or for malignant disease (22% risk; 95% confidence interval, 14%-32%; 11 studies), P = .71. Among all patients, 6% (95% confidence interval, 4%-10%) developed insulin-dependent new-onset diabetes mellitus. This systematic review identified a clinically relevant risk of new-onset diabetes mellitus after pancreatoduodenectomy of which patients should be informed preoperatively. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Valsalva manoeuvre versus tourniquet for venipuncture.

PubMed

Villa, Gianluca; Chelazzi, Cosimo; Giua, Rosa; Lavacchini, Laura; Tofani, Lorenzo; Zagli, Giovanni; Barbani, Francesco; De Gaudio, A Raffaele; Romagnoli, Stefano; Pinelli, Fulvio

2018-03-01

During ultrasound-guided cannulation, venous filling is required for venipuncture. Tourniquet with an elastic tube at the axilla is the most common method to induce venous stasis for cannulation of the deep veins of the arm. Although effective, this method might be associated with short- and long-term complications. Valsalva manoeuvre has been used to produce venous filling in other extrathoracic veins. The aim of this observational study is to demonstrate the effect of Valsalva manoeuvre in respect of the elastic tourniquet on venous distention during echography-guided cannulation of the deep veins of the arm. Sixty-nine patients scheduled for cannulation of basilic or brachial vein were prospectively observed. Vein diameters were recorded at rest and after 10 s of Valsalva or tourniquet placement. The mean difference between basilic vein diameters during tourniquet and Valsalva manoeuvre was 0.006 mm (95% confidence interval = -inf, 0.09) with a standard deviation of 0.5 mm (95% confidence interval = 0.5, 0.7; p > 0.01). The mean difference between brachial vein diameters during tourniquet and Valsalva manoeuvre was 0.04 mm (95% confidence interval = -0.23, 0.15) with a standard deviation of 0.8 mm (95% confidence interval = 0.7, 0.9; p > 0.01). This increase in cross-sectional basilic and brachial vein diameters was not different to that obtained with the elastic tube tourniquet.

Disordered eating in entry-level military personnel.

PubMed

Warner, Christopher; Warner, Carolynn; Matuszak, Theresa; Rachal, James; Flynn, Julianne; Grieger, Thomas A

2007-02-01

The goal was to determine the prevalence of and risk factors for disordered eating in an entry-level U.S. Army population. A cross-sectional survey of advanced individual training U.S. Army soldiers at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, was performed with an anonymous self-report survey containing demographic factors, history (including abuse and psychiatric treatment), and Eating Attitudes Test-26. Of 1,184 advanced individual training soldiers approached, 1090 participated. The response rate was 91.2% (955 men and 135 women). Forty percent were overweight (body mass index of > or =25), 11% reported a psychiatric history, 26% reported a history of abuse, and 9.8% endorsed disordered eating (male, 7.0%; female, 29.6%), as defined by Eating Attitudes Test-26. Factors that placed soldiers at higher risk for disordered eating were female gender (odds ratio, 5.63; 95% confidence interval, 3.32-9.57; p < 0.00005), overweight (odds ratio, 3.06; 95% confidence interval, 1.92-4.89; p < 0.00005), previous psychiatric treatment (odds ratio, 1.87; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-3.36; p = 0.035), and history of verbal abuse (odds ratio, 2.02; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-3.51; p = 0.014). Our study shows a higher than expected rate of disordered eating in advanced individual training soldiers with identifiable risk factors. This indicates an important need for further study, effective screening, preventive counseling, and early intervention for treatment.

Is complexity of work associated with risk of dementia? The Canadian Study of Health And Aging.

PubMed

Kröger, Edeltraut; Andel, Ross; Lindsay, Joan; Benounissa, Zohra; Verreault, René; Laurin, Danielle

2008-04-01

The authors evaluated the association of complexity of work with data, people, and things with the incidence of dementia, Alzheimer's disease, and vascular dementia in the Canadian Study of Health and Aging, while adjusting for work-related physical activity. The Canadian Study of Health and Aging is a 10-year population study, from 1991 to 2001, of a representative sample of persons aged 65 years or older. Lifetime job history allowed application of complexity scores and classification of work-related physical activity. Analyses included 3,557 subjects, of whom 400 were incident dementia cases, including 299 with Alzheimer's disease and 93 with vascular dementia. In fully adjusted Cox regression models, high complexity of work with people or things reduced risk of dementia (hazard ratios were 0.66 (95% confidence interval: 0.44, 0.98) and 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.52, 0.99), respectively) but not Alzheimer's disease. For vascular dementia, hazard ratios were 0.36 (95% confidence interval: 0.15, 0.90) for high complexity of work with people and 0.50 (95% confidence interval: 0.25, 1.00) for high complexity of work with things. Subgroup analyses according to median duration (23 years) of principal occupation showed that associations with complexity varied according to duration of employment. High complexity of work appears to be associated with risk of dementia, but effects may vary according to subtype.

Daytime Napping, Nighttime Sleeping, and Parkinson Disease

PubMed Central

Gao, Jianjun; Huang, Xuemei; Park, Yikyung; Hollenbeck, Albert; Blair, Aaron; Schatzkin, Arthur; Chen, Honglei

2011-01-01

Preliminary evidence suggests that daytime sleepiness may predate clinical diagnosis of Parkinson disease. The authors examined daytime napping and nighttime sleeping durations, reported in 1996–1997 by 220,934 US NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study participants, in relation to Parkinson disease diagnoses at 3 clinical stages: established (cases diagnosed before 1995, n = 267), recent (1995–1999, n = 396), and prediagnostic (2000 and after, n = 770). Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were derived from multivariate logistic regression models. Longer daytime napping was associated with higher odds of Parkinson disease at all 3 clinical stages: the odds ratios comparing long nappers (>1 hour/day) with nonnappers were 3.9 (95% confidence interval: 2.8, 5.6) for established cases, 2.2 (95% confidence interval: 1.7, 3.0) for recent cases, and 1.5 (95% confidence interval: 1.2, 1.9) for prediagnostic cases. Further control for health status or nighttime sleeping duration attenuated the association for established cases but made little difference for recent or prediagnostic cases. In the nighttime sleeping analysis, a clear U-shaped association with Parkinson disease was observed for established cases; however, this association was attenuated markedly for recent cases and disappeared for prediagnostic cases. This study supports the notion that daytime sleepiness, but not nighttime sleeping duration, is one of the early nonmotor symptoms of Parkinson disease. PMID:21402730

Aortic stiffness and the balance between cardiac oxygen supply and demand: the Rotterdam Study.

PubMed

Guelen, Ilja; Mattace-Raso, Francesco Us; van Popele, Nicole M; Westerhof, Berend E; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline Cm; Bos, Willem Jan W

2008-06-01

Aortic stiffness is an independent predictor of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. We investigated whether aortic stiffness, estimated as aortic pulse wave velocity, is associated with decreased perfusion pressure estimated as the cardiac oxygen supply potential. Aortic stiffness and aortic pressure waves, reconstructed from finger blood pressure waves, were obtained in 2490 older adults within the framework of the Rotterdam Study, a large population-based study. Cardiac oxygen supply and demand were estimated using pulse wave analysis techniques, and related to aortic stiffness by linear regression analyses after adjustment for age, sex, mean arterial pressure and heart rate. Cardiac oxygen demand, estimated as the Systolic Pressure Time Index and the Rate Pressure Product, increased with increasing aortic stiffness [0.27 mmHg s (95% confidence interval: 0.21; 0.34)] and [42.2 mmHg/min (95% confidence interval: 34.1; 50.3)], respectively. Cardiac oxygen supply potential estimated as the Diastolic Pressure Time Index decreased [-0.70 mmHg s (95% confidence interval: -0.86; -0.54)] with aortic stiffening. Accordingly, the supply/demand ratio Diastolic Pressure Time Index/Systolic Pressure Time Index -1.11 (95% confidence interval: -0.14; -0.009) decreased with increasing aortic stiffness. Aortic stiffness is associated with estimates of increased cardiac oxygen demand and a decreased cardiac oxygen supply potential. These results may offer additional explanation for the relation between aortic stiffness and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.

Traffic-related air pollution: Exposure and health effects in Copenhagen street cleaners and cemetery workers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Raaschou-Nielsen, O.; Nielsen, M.L.; Gehl, J.

This questionaire-based study found a significantly higher prevalence of chronic bronchitis, asthma, and several other symptoms in 116 Copenhagen street cleaners who were exposed to traffic-related air pollution at levels that were slightly lower than the 1987 World Health Organization-recommended threshold values, compared with 115 Copenhagen cemetery workers exposed to lower pollution levels. Logistic regression analysis, controlling for age and smoking, was conducted, and odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to be 2.5 for chronic bronchitis (95% confidence interval = 1.2-5.1), 2.3 for asthma (95% confidence interval = 1.0-5.1), and 1.8-7.9 for other symptoms (95% confidence interval =more » 1.0-28.2). Except for exposure to air pollution, the two groups were comparable, i.e., they had similar terms of employment and working conditions. the exposure ranges during an 8-h work day, averaged from readings taken at five monitored street positions, were: 41-257 ppb nitric oxide (1-h max: 865 ppb); 23-43 ppb nitrogen dioxide (1-h max: 208 ppb); 1.0-4.3 ppm carbon monoxide (8-h max: 7.1 ppm); 14-28 ppb sulfur dioxide (1-h max; 112 ppb); and 10-38 ppb ozone (1-h max: 72 ppb). 33 refs., 7 tabs.« less

Parametric methods outperformed non-parametric methods in comparisons of discrete numerical variables.

PubMed

Fagerland, Morten W; Sandvik, Leiv; Mowinckel, Petter

2011-04-13

The number of events per individual is a widely reported variable in medical research papers. Such variables are the most common representation of the general variable type called discrete numerical. There is currently no consensus on how to compare and present such variables, and recommendations are lacking. The objective of this paper is to present recommendations for analysis and presentation of results for discrete numerical variables. Two simulation studies were used to investigate the performance of hypothesis tests and confidence interval methods for variables with outcomes {0, 1, 2}, {0, 1, 2, 3}, {0, 1, 2, 3, 4}, and {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5}, using the difference between the means as an effect measure. The Welch U test (the T test with adjustment for unequal variances) and its associated confidence interval performed well for almost all situations considered. The Brunner-Munzel test also performed well, except for small sample sizes (10 in each group). The ordinary T test, the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test, the percentile bootstrap interval, and the bootstrap-t interval did not perform satisfactorily. The difference between the means is an appropriate effect measure for comparing two independent discrete numerical variables that has both lower and upper bounds. To analyze this problem, we encourage more frequent use of parametric hypothesis tests and confidence intervals.

Blood transfusion for preventing primary and secondary stroke in people with sickle cell disease.

PubMed

Estcourt, Lise J; Fortin, Patricia M; Hopewell, Sally; Trivella, Marialena; Wang, Winfred C

2017-01-17

Sickle cell disease is one of the commonest severe monogenic disorders in the world, due to the inheritance of two abnormal haemoglobin (beta globin) genes. Sickle cell disease can cause severe pain, significant end-organ damage, pulmonary complications, and premature death. Stroke affects around 10% of children with sickle cell anaemia (HbSS). Chronic blood transfusions may reduce the risk of vaso-occlusion and stroke by diluting the proportion of sickled cells in the circulation.This is an update of a Cochrane Review first published in 2002, and last updated in 2013. To assess risks and benefits of chronic blood transfusion regimens in people with sickle cell disease for primary and secondary stroke prevention (excluding silent cerebral infarcts). We searched for relevant trials in the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE (from 1946), Embase (from 1974), the Transfusion Evidence Library (from 1980), and ongoing trial databases; all searches current to 04 April 2016.We searched the Cochrane Cystic Fibrosis and Genetic Disorders Group Haemoglobinopathies Trials Register: 25 April 2016. Randomised controlled trials comparing red blood cell transfusions as prophylaxis for stroke in people with sickle cell disease to alternative or standard treatment. There were no restrictions by outcomes examined, language or publication status. Two authors independently assessed trial eligibility and the risk of bias and extracted data. We included five trials (660 participants) published between 1998 and 2016. Four of these trials were terminated early. The vast majority of participants had the haemoglobin (Hb)SS form of sickle cell disease.Three trials compared regular red cell transfusions to standard care in primary prevention of stroke: two in children with no previous long-term transfusions; and one in children and adolescents on long-term transfusion.Two trials compared the drug hydroxyurea (hydroxycarbamide) and phlebotomy to long-term transfusions and iron chelation therapy: one in primary prevention (children); and one in secondary prevention (children and adolescents).The quality of the evidence was very low to moderate across different outcomes according to GRADE methodology. This was due to the trials being at a high risk of bias due to lack of blinding, indirectness and imprecise outcome estimates. Red cell transfusions versus standard care Children with no previous long-term transfusionsLong-term transfusions probably reduce the incidence of clinical stroke in children with a higher risk of stroke (abnormal transcranial doppler velocities or previous history of silent cerebral infarct), risk ratio 0.12 (95% confidence interval 0.03 to 0.49) (two trials, 326 participants), moderate quality evidence.Long-term transfusions may: reduce the incidence of other sickle cell disease-related complications (acute chest syndrome, risk ratio 0.24 (95% confidence interval 0.12 to 0.48)) (two trials, 326 participants); increase quality of life (difference estimate -0.54, 95% confidence interval -0.92 to -0.17) (one trial, 166 participants); but make little or no difference to IQ scores (least square mean: 1.7, standard error 95% confidence interval -1.1 to 4.4) (one trial, 166 participants), low quality evidence.We are very uncertain whether long-term transfusions: reduce the risk of transient ischaemic attacks, Peto odds ratio 0.13 (95% confidence interval 0.01 to 2.11) (two trials, 323 participants); have any effect on all-cause mortality, no deaths reported (two trials, 326 participants); or increase the risk of alloimmunisation, risk ratio 3.16 (95% confidence interval 0.18 to 57.17) (one trial, 121 participants), very low quality evidence. Children and adolescents with previous long-term transfusions (one trial, 79 participants)We are very uncertain whether continuing long-term transfusions reduces the incidence of: stroke, risk ratio 0.22 (95% confidence interval 0.01 to 4.35); or all-cause mortality, Peto odds ratio 8.00 (95% confidence interval 0.16 to 404.12), very low quality evidence.Several review outcomes were only reported in one trial arm (sickle cell disease-related complications, alloimmunisation, transient ischaemic attacks).The trial did not report neurological impairment, or quality of life. Hydroxyurea and phlebotomy versus red cell transfusions and chelationNeither trial reported on neurological impairment, alloimmunisation, or quality of life. Primary prevention, children (one trial, 121 participants)Switching to hydroxyurea and phlebotomy may have little or no effect on liver iron concentrations, mean difference -1.80 mg Fe/g dry-weight liver (95% confidence interval -5.16 to 1.56), low quality evidence.We are very uncertain whether switching to hydroxyurea and phlebotomy has any effect on: risk of stroke (no strokes); all-cause mortality (no deaths); transient ischaemic attacks, risk ratio 1.02 (95% confidence interval 0.21 to 4.84); or other sickle cell disease-related complications (acute chest syndrome, risk ratio 2.03 (95% confidence interval 0.39 to 10.69)), very low quality evidence. Secondary prevention, children and adolescents (one trial, 133 participants)Switching to hydroxyurea and phlebotomy may: increase the risk of sickle cell disease-related serious adverse events, risk ratio 3.10 (95% confidence interval 1.42 to 6.75); but have little or no effect on median liver iron concentrations (hydroxyurea, 17.3 mg Fe/g dry-weight liver (interquartile range 10.0 to 30.6)); transfusion 17.3 mg Fe/g dry-weight liver (interquartile range 8.8 to 30.7), low quality evidence.We are very uncertain whether switching to hydroxyurea and phlebotomy: increases the risk of stroke, risk ratio 14.78 (95% confidence interval 0.86 to 253.66); or has any effect on all-cause mortality, Peto odds ratio 0.98 (95% confidence interval 0.06 to 15.92); or transient ischaemic attacks, risk ratio 0.66 (95% confidence interval 0.25 to 1.74), very low quality evidence. There is no evidence for managing adults, or children who do not have HbSS sickle cell disease.In children who are at higher risk of stroke and have not had previous long-term transfusions, there is moderate quality evidence that long-term red cell transfusions reduce the risk of stroke, and low quality evidence they also reduce the risk of other sickle cell disease-related complications.In primary and secondary prevention of stroke there is low quality evidence that switching to hydroxyurea with phlebotomy has little or no effect on the liver iron concentration.In secondary prevention of stroke there is low-quality evidence that switching to hydroxyurea with phlebotomy increases the risk of sickle cell disease-related events.All other evidence in this review is of very low quality.

Blood transfusion for preventing primary and secondary stroke in people with sickle cell disease

PubMed Central

Estcourt, Lise J; Fortin, Patricia M; Hopewell, Sally; Trivella, Marialena; Wang, Winfred C

2017-01-01

Background Sickle cell disease is one of the commonest severe monogenic disorders in the world, due to the inheritance of two abnormal haemoglobin (beta globin) genes. Sickle cell disease can cause severe pain, significant end-organ damage, pulmonary complications, and premature death. Stroke affects around 10% of children with sickle cell anaemia (HbSS). Chronic blood transfusions may reduce the risk of vaso-occlusion and stroke by diluting the proportion of sickled cells in the circulation. This is an update of a Cochrane Review first published in 2002, and last updated in 2013. Objectives To assess risks and benefits of chronic blood transfusion regimens in people with sickle cell disease for primary and secondary stroke prevention (excluding silent cerebral infarcts). Search methods We searched for relevant trials in the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE (from 1946), Embase (from 1974), the Transfusion Evidence Library (from 1980), and ongoing trial databases; all searches current to 04 April 2016. We searched the Cochrane Cystic Fibrosis and Genetic Disorders Group Haemoglobinopathies Trials Register: 25 April 2016. Selection criteria Randomised controlled trials comparing red blood cell transfusions as prophylaxis for stroke in people with sickle cell disease to alternative or standard treatment. There were no restrictions by outcomes examined, language or publication status. Data collection and analysis Two authors independently assessed trial eligibility and the risk of bias and extracted data. Main results We included five trials (660 participants) published between 1998 and 2016. Four of these trials were terminated early. The vast majority of participants had the haemoglobin (Hb)SS form of sickle cell disease. Three trials compared regular red cell transfusions to standard care in primary prevention of stroke: two in children with no previous long-term transfusions; and one in children and adolescents on long-term transfusion. Two trials compared the drug hydroxyurea (hydroxycarbamide) and phlebotomy to long-term transfusions and iron chelation therapy: one in primary prevention (children); and one in secondary prevention (children and adolescents). The quality of the evidence was very low to moderate across different outcomes according to GRADE methodology. This was due to the trials being at a high risk of bias due to lack of blinding, indirectness and imprecise outcome estimates. Red cell transfusions versus standard care Children with no previous long-term transfusions Long-term transfusions probably reduce the incidence of clinical stroke in children with a higher risk of stroke (abnormal transcranial doppler velocities or previous history of silent cerebral infarct), risk ratio 0.12 (95% confidence interval 0.03 to 0.49) (two trials, 326 participants), moderate quality evidence. Long-term transfusions may: reduce the incidence of other sickle cell disease-related complications (acute chest syndrome, risk ratio 0.24 (95% confidence interval 0.12 to 0.48)) (two trials, 326 participants); increase quality of life (difference estimate -0.54, 95% confidence interval -0.92 to -0.17) (one trial, 166 participants); but make little or no difference to IQ scores (least square mean: 1.7, standard error 95% confidence interval -1.1 to 4.4) (one trial, 166 participants), low quality evidence. We are very uncertain whether long-term transfusions: reduce the risk of transient ischaemic attacks, Peto odds ratio 0.13 (95% confidence interval 0.01 to 2.11) (two trials, 323 participants); have any effect on all-cause mortality, no deaths reported (two trials, 326 participants); or increase the risk of alloimmunisation, risk ratio 3.16 (95% confidence interval 0.18 to 57.17) (one trial, 121 participants), very low quality evidence. Children and adolescents with previous long-term transfusions (one trial, 79 participants) We are very uncertain whether continuing long-term transfusions reduces the incidence of: stroke, risk ratio 0.22 (95% confidence interval 0.01 to 4.35); or all-cause mortality, Peto odds ratio 8.00 (95% confidence interval 0.16 to 404.12), very low quality evidence. Several review outcomes were only reported in one trial arm (sickle cell disease-related complications, alloimmunisation, transient ischaemic attacks). The trial did not report neurological impairment, or quality of life. Hydroxyurea and phlebotomy versus red cell transfusions and chelation Neither trial reported on neurological impairment, alloimmunisation, or quality of life. Primary prevention, children (one trial, 121 participants) Switching to hydroxyurea and phlebotomy may have little or no effect on liver iron concentrations, mean difference -1.80 mg Fe/g dry-weight liver (95% confidence interval -5.16 to 1.56), low quality evidence. We are very uncertain whether switching to hydroxyurea and phlebotomy has any effect on: risk of stroke (no strokes); all-cause mortality (no deaths); transient ischaemic attacks, risk ratio 1.02 (95% confidence interval 0.21 to 4.84); or other sickle cell disease-related complications (acute chest syndrome, risk ratio 2.03 (95% confidence interval 0.39 to 10.69)), very low quality evidence. Secondary prevention, children and adolescents (one trial, 133 participants) Switching to hydroxyurea and phlebotomy may: increase the risk of sickle cell disease-related serious adverse events, risk ratio 3.10 (95% confidence interval 1.42 to 6.75); but have little or no effect on median liver iron concentrations (hydroxyurea, 17.3 mg Fe/g dry-weight liver (interquartile range 10.0 to 30.6)); transfusion 17.3 mg Fe/g dry-weight liver (interquartile range 8.8 to 30.7), low quality evidence. We are very uncertain whether switching to hydroxyurea and phlebotomy: increases the risk of stroke, risk ratio 14.78 (95% confidence interval 0.86 to 253.66); or has any effect on all-cause mortality, Peto odds ratio 0.98 (95% confidence interval 0.06 to 15.92); or transient ischaemic attacks, risk ratio 0.66 (95% confidence interval 0.25 to 1.74), very low quality evidence. Authors’ conclusions There is no evidence for managing adults, or children who do not have HbSS sickle cell disease. In children who are at higher risk of stroke and have not had previous long-term transfusions, there is moderate quality evidence that long-term red cell transfusions reduce the risk of stroke, and low quality evidence they also reduce the risk of other sickle cell disease-related complications. In primary and secondary prevention of stroke there is low quality evidence that switching to hydroxyurea with phlebotomy has little or no effect on the liver iron concentration. In secondary prevention of stroke there is low-quality evidence that switching to hydroxyurea with phlebotomy increases the risk of sickle cell disease-related events. All other evidence in this review is of very low quality. PMID:24226646

Consequences of Recipient Obesity on Postoperative Outcomes in a Renal Transplant: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Sood, Anshuman; Hakim, David N; Hakim, Nadey S

2016-04-01

The prevalence of obesity is increasing rapidly and globally, yet systemic reviews on this topic are scarce. Our meta-analysis and systemic review aimed to assess how obesity affects 5 postoperative outcomes: biopsy-proven acute rejection, patient death, allograft loss, type 2 diabetes mellitus after transplant, and delayed graft function. We evaluated peer-reviewed literature from 22 medical databases. Studies were included if they were conducted in accordance with the Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology criteria, only examined postoperative outcomes in adult patients, only examined the relation between recipient obesity at time of transplant and our 5 postoperative outcomes, and had a minimum score of > 5 stars on the Newcastle-Ottawa scale for nonrandomized studies. Reliable conclusions were ensured by having our studies examined against 2 internationally known scoring systems. Obesity was defined in accordance with the World Health Organization as having a body mass index of > 30 kg/m(2). All obese recipients were compared versus "healthy" recipients (body mass index of 18.5-24.9 kg/m(2)). Hazard ratios were calculated for biopsy-proven acute rejection, patient death, allograft loss, and type 2 diabetes mellitus after transplant. An odds ratio was calculated for delayed graft function. We assessed 21 retrospective observational studies in our meta-analysis (N = 241 381 patients). In obese transplant recipients, hazard ratios were 1.51 (95% confidence interval, 1.24-1.78) for presence of biopsy-proven acute rejection, 1.19 (95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.31) for patient death, 1.54 (95% confidence interval, 1.38-1.68) for allograft loss, and 1.01 (95% confidence interval, 0.98-1.07) for development of type 2 diabetes mellitus. The odds ratio for delayed graft function was 1.81 (95% confidence interval, 1.51-2.13). Our meta-analysis clearly demonstrated greater risks for obese renal transplant recipients and poorer postoperative outcomes with obesity. We confidently recommend renal transplant candidates seek medically supervised weight loss before transplant.

Endectocide activity of a pour-on formulation containing 1.5 per cent ivermectin +0.5 per cent abamectin in cattle.

PubMed

Silva, Heloisa Cristina; Prette, Nancy; Lopes, Welber Daniel Zanetti; Sakamoto, Cláudio Alessandro M; Buzzulini, Carolina; Dos Santos, Thais Rabelo; Cruz, Breno Cayeiro; Teixeira, Weslen F Pires; Felippelli, Gustavo; Carvalho, Rafael Silveira; Maciel, Willian Giquelin; Soares, Vando Edésio; da Costa, Alvimar José

2015-01-01

The present work aimed to evaluate, through ten different studies, the therapeutic efficacy of a new pour-on formulation, containing 1.5 per cent ivermectin +0.5 per cent abamectin, against parasites of cattle. Results obtained on trials against Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus showed that the pour-on combination of 1.5 per cent ivermectin +0.5 per cent abamectin obtained superior efficacy indexes against this ectoparasite, when compared with formulations containing 0.5 per cent ivermectin, 1 per cent ivermectin and the combination of 1 per cent abamectin +20 per cent levamisole. The results of efficacy of the ivermectin+abamectin and the 0.5 per cent ivermectin against Haematobia irritans were similar. Against Cochliomyia hominivorax larvae, all pour-on formulations tested (1.5 per cent ivermectin +0.5 per cent abamectin, 0.5 per cent ivermectin and 0.5 per cent abamectin), as well as 1 per cent doramectin administered subcutaneously, were considered ineffective. Cattle medicated with 1.5 per cent ivermectin +0.5 per cent abamectin, pour-on, remained free from parasitism by Dermatobia hominis larvae during 42 days (96 per cent efficacy), while values superior to 90 per cent were obtained by 0.5 per cent ivermectin (92 per cent) and 0.5 per cent abamectin (93 per cent) until the 42nd and 35th days post treatment, respectively. Against Haemonchus placei and Oesophagostomum radiatum, the pour-on of ivermectin+abamectin showed better efficacy than the 0.5 per cent ivermectin and 0.5 per cent abamectin. As to Cooperia punctata, there was no difference regarding efficacy results obtained by the avermectins combination and abamectin. The pour-on combination of 1.5 per cent ivermectin +0.5 per cent abamectin obtained high efficacy against R. (B.) microplus, D. hominis and some species of cattle gastrointestinal helminths when compared with formulations of 0.5 per cent ivermectin and 0.5 per cent abamectin administered through the same route.

Association between gestational weight gain and perinatal outcomes in women with chronic hypertension.

PubMed

Yee, Lynn M; Caughey, Aaron B; Cheng, Yvonne W

2017-09-01

Gestational weight gain above or below the 2009 National Academy of Medicine guidelines has been associated with adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. Although it has been well established that excess gestational weight gain is associated with the development of gestational hypertension and preeclampsia, the relationship between gestational weight gain and adverse perinatal outcomes among women with pregestational (chronic) hypertension is less clear. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between gestational weight gain above and below National Academy of Medicine guidelines and perinatal outcomes in a large, population-based cohort of women with chronic hypertension. This is a population-based retrospective cohort study of women with chronic hypertension who had term, singleton, vertex births in the United States from 2012 through 2014. Prepregnancy body mass index was calculated using self-reported prepregnancy weight and height. Women were categorized into 4 groups based on gestational weight gain and prepregnancy body mass index: (1) weight gain less than, (2) weight gain within, (3) weight gain 1-19 lb in excess of, and (4) weight gain ≥20 lb in excess of the National Academy of Medicine guidelines. The χ 2 tests and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used for statistical comparisons. Stratified analyses by body mass index category were additionally performed. In this large birth cohort, 101,259 women met criteria for inclusion. Compared to hypertensive women who had gestational weight gain within guidelines, hypertensive women with weight gain ≥20 lb over National Academy of Medicine guidelines were more likely to have eclampsia (adjusted odds ratio, 1.93; 95% confidence interval, 1.54-2.42) and cesarean delivery (adjusted odds ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.50-1.70). Excess weight gain ≥20 lb over National Academy of Medicine guidelines was also associated with increased odds of 5-minute Apgar <7 (adjusted odds ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.47), neonatal intensive care unit admission (adjusted odds ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.33), and large-for-gestational-age neonates (adjusted odds ratio, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 2.27-2.56) as well as decreased odds of small-for-gestational-age status (adjusted odds ratio, 0.52; 95% confidence interval, 0.46-0.58). Weight gain 1-19 lb over guidelines was associated with similar fetal growth outcomes although with a smaller effect size. In contrast, weight gain less than National Academy of Medicine guidelines was not associated with adverse maternal outcomes but was associated with increased odds of small for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-1.52) and decreased odds of large-for-gestational-age status (adjusted odds ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.92). Analysis of maternal and neonatal outcomes stratified by body mass index demonstrated similar findings. Women with chronic hypertension who gain less weight than National Academy of Medicine guidelines experience increased odds of small-for-gestational-age neonates, whereas excess weight gain ≥20 lb over National Academy of Medicine guidelines is associated with cesarean delivery, eclampsia, 5-minute Apgar <7, neonatal intensive care unit admission, and large-for-gestational-age neonates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.