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Sample records for century mitigation scenarios

  1. CO2 and non-CO2 radiative forcings in climate projections for twenty-first century mitigation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strassmann, Kuno M.; Plattner, G.-K.; Joos, F.

    2009-11-01

    Climate is simulated for reference and mitigation emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models using the Bern2.5CC carbon cycle-climate model. Mitigation options encompass all major radiative forcing agents. Temperature change is attributed to forcings using an impulse-response substitute of Bern2.5CC. The contribution of CO2 to global warming increases over the century in all scenarios. Non-CO2 mitigation measures add to the abatement of global warming. The share of mitigation carried by CO2, however, increases when radiative forcing targets are lowered, and increases after 2000 in all mitigation scenarios. Thus, non-CO2 mitigation is limited and net CO2 emissions must eventually subside. Mitigation rapidly reduces the sulfate aerosol loading and associated cooling, partly masking Greenhouse Gas mitigation over the coming decades. A profound effect of mitigation on CO2 concentration, radiative forcing, temperatures and the rate of climate change emerges in the second half of the century.

  2. Can high resolution climate simulations with the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) offer a new perspective on 21st century mitigation scenarios ?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hannay, Cécile; Bacmeister, Julio; Neale, Richard; Truesdale, John; Gettelman, Andrew; O'Neill, Brian

    2014-05-01

    Present-day climate simulations using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) show that some aspects of the simulated climate are improved in response to increased horizontal resolution (Bacmeister et al, 2014). Increased resolution allows us to explicitly resolve tropical cyclones (TC) and study TC statistics. Present-day climate simulation with CAM5 at 25 km captures TC statistics reasonably well, suggesting that CAM5 is a good candidate to look at these storm statistics in a changing climate. Other features of the present-day simulation with CAM5 at 25km also clearly improve due to better representation of topography or better simulation of regional circulations. This is the case for the Summer Indian Monsoon and the wintertime precipitation over the Southeast United States. Despite these improvements, it is important to note that some aspects of the simulation do not improve and even deteriorate. For instance, the double ITCZ is exacerbated and large biases in summertime precipitation over the central US remain. Because the high resolution simulation is more realistic in terms of reproducing intense storms and fields strongly influenced by the topography or regional circulation, they offer a new perspective to look at these aspects for the twenty-first-century representative concentration pathway (RCP). A major objective for running these higher resolution RCP scenario experiments is to provide more detailed information as to the difference in mitigation cost between scenarios. Here we examine time-slice simulations of the end of the 20th and 21st centuries (using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios). We use 20-year uncoupled simulations with CAM5 at 25 km using prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice extent. For the 20th century run, prescribed SSTs and sea-ice are coming from observations. For the 21st century, SSTs and sea-ice are extracted from RCP fully coupled runs at lower resolution and are corrected by the present-day model bias. We assess how

  3. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  4. Turbulence mitigation methods for sea scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dijk, Judith; Schutte, Klamer; Nieuwenhuizen, Robert P. J.

    2016-10-01

    Visual and infrared imagery is degraded by turbulence caused by atmospheric conditions. Because the degradation gets worse for longer distances, turbulence especially hampers long range observation. At sea this turbulence affects classification and identification of ships and other objects. State of the art software based processing algorithms assuming a static background assumption will fail in such conditions because of the non-static sea background. Therefore, we propose an adapted processing chain aiming to provide optimal turbulence correction for ships seen in the camera view. First we propose to use standard object detection and tracking methods for an indication of the location of the ship. Subsequently, image registration is performed within the ship's region of interest, covering only the ship of interest. After this region of interest registration, standard turbulence mitigation software can be applied to the region of interest. For ships with other movement than translation only we propose a two-step motion estimation using local optical flow. In this paper we show results of this processing chain for sea scenarios using our TNO turbulence mitigation method. Ship data is processed using the algorithm proposed above and the results are analyzed by both human observation and by image analysis. The improvement of the imagery is qualitatively shown by examining details which cannot be seen without processing and can be seen with processing. Quantitatively, the improvement is related to the energy per spatial frequency in the original and processed images and the signal to noise improvement. This provides a model for the improvement of the results, and is related to the improvement of the classification and identification range. The results show that with this novel approach the classification and identification range of ships is improved.

  5. Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Muratori, Matteo; Smith, Steven J.; Kyle, Page; ...

    2017-02-27

    The freight sector's role is examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for a range of climate change mitigation scenarios and future freight demand assumptions. Energy usage and CO2 emissions from freight have historically grown with a correlation to GDP, and there is limited evidence of near-term global decoupling of freight demand from GDP. Over the 21st century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from freight are projected to grow faster than passenger transportation or other major end-use sectors, with the magnitude of growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term decoupling. In climate change mitigation scenarios that apply a pricemore » to GHG emissions, mitigation of freight emissions (including the effects of demand elasticity, mode and technology shifting, and fuel substitution) is more limited than for other demand sectors. In such scenarios, shifting to less-emitting transportation modes and technologies is projected to play a relatively small role in reducing freight emissions in GCAM. Finally, by contrast, changes in the supply chain of liquid fuels that reduce the fuel carbon intensity, especially deriving from large-scale use of biofuels coupled to carbon capture and storage technologies, are responsible for the majority of freight emissions mitigation, followed by price-induced reduction in freight demand services.« less

  6. Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Muratori, Matteo; Smith, Steven J; Kyle, Page; Link, Robert; Mignone, Bryan K; Kheshgi, Haroon S

    2017-03-21

    The freight sector's role is examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for a range of climate change mitigation scenarios and future freight demand assumptions. Energy usage and CO2 emissions from freight have historically grown with a correlation to GDP, and there is limited evidence of near-term global decoupling of freight demand from GDP. Over the 21(st) century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from freight are projected to grow faster than passenger transportation or other major end-use sectors, with the magnitude of growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term decoupling. In climate change mitigation scenarios that apply a price to GHG emissions, mitigation of freight emissions (including the effects of demand elasticity, mode and technology shifting, and fuel substitution) is more limited than for other demand sectors. In such scenarios, shifting to less-emitting transportation modes and technologies is projected to play a relatively small role in reducing freight emissions in GCAM. By contrast, changes in the supply chain of liquid fuels that reduce the fuel carbon intensity, especially deriving from large-scale use of biofuels coupled to carbon capture and storage technologies, are responsible for the majority of freight emissions mitigation, followed by price-induced reduction in freight demand services.

  7. Climate impacts of the ECLIPSE future emissions mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Laura; Collins, Bill; Olivie, Dirk; Cherian, Ribu; Quaas, Johannes; Myhre, Gunnar; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Skeie, Ragnhild

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the possible near-term climate benefits from mitigating aerosols, ozone and methane. The ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) project developed a realistic emissions inventory based on current legislation for 2005-2050 (CLE), and a corresponding mitigation scenario designed to be beneficial for both air quality and short-term climate impact (MIT). We determine the climate impacts of the MIT scenario, focussing on the period 2040-2050. Four climate models with interactive chemistry and aerosols (HadGEM, NorESM, CESM-CAM4 and ECHAM-HAM) are used to provide multi-model ensembles of both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations, to separate the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and the climate response. The ERFs are derived from the atmosphere-only simulations. In all models the MIT scenario leads to a negative global ERF which is driven mainly by methane emissions reductions. There is variability between models in the relative importance of methane and aerosol emissions reductions, and in the sign of ERF response to aerosol emissions reductions. The climate response to MIT is derived from the coupled simulations. In all models, MIT results in a decrease in the global mean temperature compared to CLE, with a model mean decrease of 0.22°C. The temperature decrease is seen most strongly in the Northern Hemisphere and is particularly strong in the Arctic. The ensembles of coupled-ocean simulations have therefore enabled us to identify a robust cooling signal from the air quality mitigation scenarios, which can be attributed to the different species using the ERFs.

  8. Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vichi, Marcello; Manzini, Elisa; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Alessandri, Andrea; Patara, Lavinia; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio

    2011-11-01

    Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric "target" concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the projected concentration

  9. Long term implications of 21st century choices: Millenial extensions of RCP scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strassmann, K. M.; Plattner, G.; Joos, F.; Emori, S.

    2009-12-01

    Currently available comprehensive multigas scenarios for future climate projections span the 21st century. A longer view is necessary to analyze long term responses of the climate system involving processes on long time scales, and to explore the implications of the transition from 21st century mitigation to stabilization on the multicentennial timescale. We extend 21st century scenarios to a millenial scale in a simple, idealized way, similar to the extension rules suggested by Van Vuuren et al. (2009, RCP Extension White Paper). We use scenarios of the radiative forcing (RF) due to greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols, and corresponding emissions and land use, known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The RCP scenario set includes baseline (RCP8.5, RCP6) and mitigation scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP3), which together span an RF range representative of the literature. We use precursors of the RCP scenarios, developed under the EMF-21 program for multigas mitigation scenarios, and complement them with additional baseline and mitigation scenarios from EMF-21. The Bern2.5CC model coupled to a version of the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model is used to project terrestrial and ocean carbon storage, global mean surface temperature and steric sea level rise. Scenarios are extended: i. by setting all emissions to zero after 2100, ii. by keeping all emissions constant at the level reached in 2100, iii. by keeping RF constant after 2100. In line with the scenario inherent logic of the RCPs we choose constant emissions as the standard extension for RCP8.5 and RCP3, and constant RF for RCP6 and RCP4.5. For extensions defined in terms of RF, we use Bern2.5CC to solve for the implied/allowable CO2 emissions. As a metric to assess the difficulty of long term stabilization across different scenarios we use the cumulative allowed emissions inferred from constant RF extensions relative to constant emissions after 2100. For all scenarios with substantial CO2 emissions at 2100

  10. Scenarios for the risk of hunger in the twenty-first century using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

    2015-01-01

    Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are being developed internationally for cross-sectoral assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. These are five scenarios that include both qualitative and quantitative information for mitigation and adaptation challenges to climate change. In this study, we quantified scenarios for the risk of hunger in the 21st century using SSPs, and clarified elements that influence future hunger risk. There were two primary findings: (1) risk of hunger in the 21st-century greatly differed among five SSPs; and (2) population growth, improvement in the equality of food distribution within a country, and increases in food consumption mainly driven by income growth greatly influenced future hunger risk and were important elements in its long-term assessment.

  11. Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

    PubMed

    Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

  12. Sun-glint false alarm mitigation in a maritime scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, Alessandro; Riccobono, Aldo; Landini, Stefano

    2014-10-01

    Airborne hyperspectral imaging can be exploited to detect anomalous objects in the maritime scenario. Due to the objects high contrast with respect to the sea surface, detection can be easily accomplished by means of local anomaly detectors, such as the well-known Reed-Xiaoli (RX) algorithm. During the development of a real-time system for the detection of anomalous pixels, it has been noticed that the performance of detection is deeply affected by the presence of sun-glint. The reflection on the sea surface of the solar radiation produces a high density of alarms, that makes challenging the task of detecting the objects of interest. In this paper, it is introduced a strategy aimed at discriminating the sun-glint false alarms from the effective alarms related to targets of potential interest. False alarms due to glint are mitigated performing a local spatio-spectral analysis on each alarm furnished by the anomaly detector. The technique has been tested on hyperspectral images collected during a measurement campaign carried out near Pisa, Italy. The Selex ES SIMGA hyperspectral sensor was mounted on board of an airplane to collect high spectral resolution images in both the VNIR and SWIR spectral channels. Several experiments were carried out, setting up scenarios with small man-made objects deployed on the sea surface, so as to simulate search and rescue operations. The results have highlighted the effectiveness of the proposed solution in terms of mitigation of false alarms due to sun-glints on the maritime scenario.

  13. Failure Scenarios and Mitigations for the BABAR Superconducting Solenoid

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, EunJoo; Candia, A.; Craddock, W. W.; Racine, M.; Weisend, J. G.

    2006-04-01

    The cryogenic department at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center is responsible for the operation, troubleshooting, and upgrade of the 1.5 Tesla superconducting solenoid detector for the BABAR B-factory experiment. Events that disable the detector are rare but significantly impact the availability of the detector for physics research. As a result, a number of systems and procedures have been developed over time to minimize the downtime of the detector, for example improved control systems, improved and automatic backup systems, and spares for all major components. Together they can prevent or mitigate many of the failures experienced by the utilities, mechanical systems, controls and instrumentation. In this paper we describe various failure scenarios, their effect on the detector, and the modifications made to mitigate the effects of the failure. As a result of these modifications the reliability of the detector has increased significantly with only 3 shutdowns of the detector due to cryogenics systems over the last 2 years.

  14. Disruption scenarios, their mitigation and operation window in ITER

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sugihara, M.; Shimada, M.; Fujieda, H.; Gribov, Yu.; Ioki, K.; Kawano, Y.; Khayrutdinov, R.; Lukash, V.; Ohmori, J.

    2007-04-01

    The impacts of plasma disruptions on ITER have been investigated in detail to confirm the robustness of the design of the machine to the potential consequential loads. The loads include both electro-magnetic (EM) and heat loads on the in-vessel components and the vacuum vessel. Several representative disruption scenarios are specified based on newly derived physics guidelines for the shortest current quench time as well as the maximum product of halo current fraction and toroidal peaking factor arising from disruptions in ITER. Disruption simulations with the DINA code and EM load analyses with a 3D finite element method code are performed for these scenarios. Some margins are confirmed in the EM load on in-vessel components due to induced eddy and halo currents for these representative scenarios. However, the margins are not very large. The heat load on various parts of the first wall due to the vertical movement and the thermal quench (TQ) is calculated with a 2D heat conduction code based on the database of heat deposition during disruptions and simulation results with the DINA code. For vertical displacement event, it is found that the beryllium (Be) wall does not melt during the vertical movement, prior to the TQ. Significant melting is anticipated for the upper Be wall and the tungsten divertor baffle due to TQ after the vertical movement. However, its impact could be substantially mitigated by implementing a reliable detection system of the vertical movement and a mitigation system, e.g. massive noble gas injection. Some melting of the upper Be wall is anticipated at major disruptions. At least several tens of unmitigated disruptions must be considered even if an advanced prediction/mitigation system is implemented. With these unmitigated disruptions, the loss of the Be layer is expected to be within ap30-100 µm/event out of a 10 mm thick Be first wall.

  15. Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Gernaat, David; Calvin, Katherine V.; Lucas, Paul; Luderer, Gunnar; Otto, Sander; Rao, Shilpa; Strefler, Jessica; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-07-01

    The combined 2010 emissions of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the fluorinated gasses (F-gas) account for about 20-30% of total emissions and about 30% of radiative forcing. At the moment, most studies looking at reaching ambitious climate targets project the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) to be reduced to zero (or less) by the end of the century. As for non-CO2 gases, the mitigation potential seem to be more constrained, we find that by the end of the century in the current deep mitigation scenarios non-CO2 emissions could form the lion’s share of remaining greenhouse gas emissions. In order to support effective climate policy strategies, in this paper we provide a more in-depth look at the role of non-CO2¬ emission sources (CH4, N2O and F-gases) in achieving deep mitigation targets (radiative forcing target of 2.8 W/m2 in 2100). Specifically, we look at the sectorial mitigation potential and the remaining non-CO2 emissions. By including a set of different models, we provide some insights into the associated uncertainty. Most of the remaining methane emissions in 2100 in the climate mitigation scenario come from the livestock sector. Strong reductions are seen in the energy supply sector across all models. For N2O, less reduction potential is seen compared to methane and the sectoral differences are larger between the models. The paper shows that the assumptions on remaining non-CO2 emissions are critical for the feasibility of reaching ambitious climate targets and the associated costs.

  16. China Land-Use Change Simulation Under Climate Mitigation Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DONG, N.; Lin, H.

    2016-12-01

    Future land-use change responses to human activities and plays a significant role in the whole earth system. Land use data in most climatic models are static which result in a decreased accuracy of evaluation of human activities and also largely lower the efficiency of policy makers. After the RCP scenarios came out, the land use change trends in China for the near future were rarely shown. This paper provides a method to simulate the future land use change in China based on climate mitigation scenarios. The MCD12Q1 product of MODIS and HYDE32 data are combined to make the base land use maps for China of 2005 and 2010. Totally four scenarios are made according to the Chinese national land use overall plan outlines and the statistic data from GCAM. Driving factors from social-economic, ecologic and spatial location aspects are considered including GDP, population density, temperature, precipitation, dominant soil type, elevation, slope, distance to roads, distance to rivers and distance to cities. Simulation is then carried out in 14 agricultural-zones desperately with Dyna-CLUE. Each scenario reflects seperate effects of human activities on land use change. Plan scenario represents the stage of a high speed of urban expansion. Under the condition that urban area would not largely change, the other three GCAM scenarios mainly discuss the situations focused on the change of vegetation cover. We find that: (1)The urban area expands largely in Plan scenario, and G2.6 gets the most forest and crop area which shows environment-friendly human activities to the ecologic balance (Figure 1a,1b). (2) Compare to the 2010 land use map, forest increases mainly happen in the northeast China and central plains region under the G2.6 scenario. However, urban expansion under the Plan scenario occurs not in the Yangtze River Delta or Pearl River Delta economic region but in the second or third developed level cities such as Wuhan, Jinan, and Nanchang (Figure1c,1d). (3)The kappa value

  17. 21st Century Steam for Asteroid Mitigation

    SciTech Connect

    Dearborn, D S

    2004-03-10

    The systematic requirements to divert an object on an earth-impacting course are developed relating the minimum velocity perturbation (both magnitude and direction) to the time available before impact. This, coupled with the accuracy to which orbits can be determined, restricts the time available for any mitigation technology to operate. Because nuclear energy densities are nearly a million times higher than those possible with chemical bonds, it is the most mass efficient means for storing delivering energy with today's technology. The question is how to most effectively apply that energy. This paper will examine the simple case of shattering the body, as well as a more controlled approach in which one or more small velocity increments divert a body. The optimal approach depends on the detailed circumstances, but in either case, already developed technology permits a successful diversion with a few years to decades of notice. The success of nuclear options on relatively short timescales permits consideration of other technologies that while not so well developed might be sufficiently improved to divert small (100 meter) bodies.

  18. The role of HFCs in mitigating 21st century climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Y.; Zaelke, D.; Velders, G. J. M.; Ramanathan, V.

    2013-06-01

    There is growing international interest in mitigating climate change during the early part of this century by reducing emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), in addition to reducing emissions of CO2. The SLCPs include methane (CH4), black carbon aerosols (BC), tropospheric ozone (O3) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Recent studies have estimated that by mitigating emissions of CH4, BC, and O3 using available technologies, about 0.5 to 0.6 °C warming can be avoided by mid-21st century. Here we show that avoiding production and use of high-GWP (global warming potential) HFCs by using technologically feasible low-GWP substitutes to meet the increasing global demand can avoid as much as another 0.5 °C warming by the end of the century. This combined mitigation of SLCPs would cut the cumulative warming since 2005 by 50% at 2050 and by 60% at 2100 from the CO2-only mitigation scenarios, significantly reducing the rate of warming and lowering the probability of exceeding the 2 °C warming threshold during this century.

  19. The role of HFCs in mitigating 21st century climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Y.; Zaelke, D.; Velders, G. J.; Ramanathan, V.

    2013-12-01

    There is growing international interest in mitigating climate change during the early part of this century by reducing emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), in addition to reducing emissions of CO2. The SLCPs include methane (CH4), black carbon aerosols (BC), tropospheric ozone (O3) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Recent studies have estimated that by mitigating emissions of CH4, BC, and O3 using available technologies, about 0.5 to 0.6°C warming can be avoided by mid-21st century. Here we show that avoiding production and use of high-GWP (global warming potential) HFCs by using technologically feasible low-GWP substitutes to meet the increasing global demand can avoid as much as another 0.5°C warming by the end of the century. This combined mitigation of SLCPs would cut the cumulative warming since 2005 by 50% at 2050 and by 60% at 2100 from the CO2-only mitigation scenarios, significantly reducing the rate of warming and lowering the probability of exceeding the 2°C warming threshold during this century.

  20. The new ENSEMBLES E1 mitigation scenario for future climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Royer, J.-F.; Lowe, J.; Johns, T.; van Vuuren, D.; Stehfest, E.; Denoblet-Ducoudré, N.; Boucher, O.; Rognerud, B.; Huebener, H.

    2009-04-01

    Climate simulations with state-of-the-art earth-system models are required to study the potential impacts of climate change, and possible solutions for avoiding, or reducing, some of its undesirable consequences. Though several emission scenarios have been applied for the IPCC AR4 assessments, the differences in the SRES scenarios result mainly from varying degrees of globalization, the role of environmental and social policy, economic and population growth and the rate of technology development. It seems then necessary to consider also more stringent mitigation pathways which aim eventually to implement a climate mitigation policy. In particular it appears particularly useful to implement and analyse climate scenarios for stabilising the additional anthropogenic radiative forcing to that equivalent to a carbon dioxide concentration at around 450 ppm during the 22nd Century for attempting to match the European Union target of keeping global anthropogenic warming below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. A new set of climate simulations over the 21st century with improved earth-system models has thus been designed by the European modelling groups participating to the European FP6 project ENSEMBLES, as a contribution to the second phase ("Stream 2") of the project. The set-up of the new simulations, though basically similar to that used in the CMIP3 simulations for the IPCC AR4, has been improved by taking into account land-use changes. The simulations cover the recent historical period (1860-2000) and are extended over the the 21st century by two scenarios based on the A1B development path. The A1B scenario has been chosen as the baseline scenario for the ENSEMBLES stream 2 simulations because the strong increase in emissions is consistent with real emissions growth, and in order provide overlap with earlier climate modelling work. Besides the standard A1B SRES scenario, a new stabilisation scenario has been developed so as to limit the long-term radiative forcing to

  1. Hydrological Sensitivity of Land Use Scenarios for Climate Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boegh, E.; Friborg, T.; Hansen, K.; Jensen, R.; Seaby, L. P.

    2014-12-01

    Bringing atmospheric concentration to 550 ppm CO2 or below by 2100 will require large-scale changes to global and national energy systems, and potentially the use of land (IPCC, 2013) The Danish government aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 40 % in 1990-2020 and energy consumption to be based on 100 % renewable energy by 2035. By 2050, GHG emissions should be reduced by 80-95 %. Strategies developed to reach these goals require land use change to increase the production of biomass for bioenergy, further use of catch crops, reduced nitrogen inputs in agriculture, reduced soil tillage, afforestation and establishment of permanent grass fields. Currently, solar radiation in the growing season is not fully exploited, and it is expected that biomass production for bioenergy can be supported without reductions in food and fodder production. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological sensitivity of biomass growth and soil carbon storage are however not known. The present study evaluates the hydrological sensitivity of Danish land use options for climate mitigation in terms of crop yields (including straw for bioenergy) and net CO2 exchange for wheat, barley, maize and clover under current and future climate conditions. Hydrological sensitivity was evaluated using the agrohydrological model Daisy. Simulations during current climate conditions were in good agreement with measured dry matter, crop nitrogen content and eddy covariance fluxes of water vapour and CO2. Climate scenarios from the European ENSEMBLES database were downscaled for simulating water, nitrogen and carbon balance for 2071-2100. The biomass potential generally increase, but water stress also increases in strength and extends over a longer period, thereby increasing sensitivity to water availability. The potential of different land use scenarios to maximize vegetation cover and biomass for climate mitigation is further discussed in relation to impacts on the energy- and water balance.

  2. Representative concentration pathways and mitigation scenarios for nitrous oxide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, Eric A.

    2012-06-01

    The challenges of mitigating nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are substantially different from those for carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), because nitrogen (N) is essential for food production, and over 80% of anthropogenic N2O emissions are from the agricultural sector. Here I use a model of emission factors of N2O to demonstrate the magnitude of improvements in agriculture and industrial sectors and changes in dietary habits that would be necessary to match the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) now being considered in the fifth assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Stabilizing atmospheric N2O by 2050, consistent with the most aggressive of the RCP mitigation scenarios, would require about 50% reductions in emission factors in all sectors and about a 50% reduction in mean per capita meat consumption in the developed world. Technologies exist to achieve such improved efficiencies, but overcoming social, economic, and political impediments for their adoption and for changes in dietary habits will present large challenges.

  3. Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

    SciTech Connect

    Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander; Humpenöder, Florian; Leimbach, Marian; Strefler, Jessica; Baumstark, Lavinia; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Hilaire, Jérôme; Klein, David; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Weindl, Isabelle; Bertram, Christoph; Dietrich, Jan-Philipp; Luderer, Gunnar; Pehl, Michaja; Pietzcker, Robert; Piontek, Franziska; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Biewald, Anne; Bonsch, Markus; Giannousakis, Anastasis; Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Müller, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Schultes, Anselm; Schwanitz, Jana; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Calvin, Katherine; Emmerling, Johannes; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Edenhofer, Ottmar

    2016-08-18

    Here, this paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), and represents currently the only socio-economic scenario family that can be combined with climate model projections based on RCP8.5. This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. Finally, the SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.

  4. Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.

    2000-01-01

    Evidence on a broad range of time scales, from Proterozoic to the most recent periods, shows that the Earth's climate responds sensitively to global forcings. In the past few decades the Earth's surface has warmed rapidly, apparently in response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The conventional view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate in the 21st century. I will describe an alternate scenario that would slow the rate of global warming and reduce the danger of dramatic climate change. But reliable prediction of future climate change requires improved knowledge of the carbon cycle and global observations that allow interpretation of ongoing climate change.

  5. Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.

    2000-01-01

    Evidence on a broad range of time scales, from Proterozoic to the most recent periods, shows that the Earth's climate responds sensitively to global forcings. In the past few decades the Earth's surface has warmed rapidly, apparently in response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The conventional view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate in the 21st century. I will describe an alternate scenario that would slow the rate of global warming and reduce the danger of dramatic climate change. But reliable prediction of future climate change requires improved knowledge of the carbon cycle and global observations that allow interpretation of ongoing climate change.

  6. Persisting cold extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kodra, Evan A; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K; Ganguly, Auroop R

    2011-01-01

    Analyses of climate model simulations and observations reveal that extreme cold events are likely to persist across each land-continent even under 21st-century warming scenarios. The grid-based intensity, duration and frequency of cold extreme events are calculated annually through three indices: the coldest annual consecutive three-day average of daily maximum temperature, the annual maximum of consecutive frost days, and the total number of frost days. Nine global climate models forced with a moderate greenhouse-gas emissions scenario compares the indices over 2091 2100 versus 1991 2000. The credibility of model-simulated cold extremes is evaluated through both bias scores relative to reanalysis data in the past and multi-model agreement in the future. The number of times the value of each annual index in 2091 2100 exceeds the decadal average of the corresponding index in 1991 2000 is counted. The results indicate that intensity and duration of grid-based cold extremes, when viewed as a global total, will often be as severe as current typical conditions in many regions, but the corresponding frequency does not show this persistence. While the models agree on the projected persistence of cold extremes in terms of global counts, regionally, inter-model variability and disparity in model performance tends to dominate. Our findings suggest that, despite a general warming trend, regional preparedness for extreme cold events cannot be compromised even towards the end of the century.

  7. Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

    DOE PAGES

    Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander; ...

    2016-08-18

    Here, this paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, markingmore » the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), and represents currently the only socio-economic scenario family that can be combined with climate model projections based on RCP8.5. This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. Finally, the SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.« less

  8. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Calvin, K.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community-integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model - namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) - is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5° × 0.5° resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

  9. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    SciTech Connect

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

  10. Climate Impacts of Geoengineering in a Delayed Mitigation Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tilmes, S.; Sanderson, B. M.; O'Neill, B. C.

    2016-12-01

    Decarbonization in the immediate future is required to limit global mean temperature (GMT) increase to 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial conditions, if geoengineering is not considered. Here we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate climate outcomes if no mitigation is undertaken until GMT has reached 2 degree C. We find that late decarbonization (LD) in CESM without applying stratospheric sulfur injection (SSI) leads to a peak temperature increase of 3 degree C and GMT remains above 2 degrees for 160 years. An additional gradual increase and then decrease of SSI over this period reaching about 1.5 times the aerosol burden resulting from the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1992 would limit the increase in GMT to 2.0 degrees for the specific pathway and model. SSI produces mean and extreme temperatures in CESM comparable to an early decarbonization pathway, but aridity is not mitigated to the same extent.

  11. Climate impacts of geoengineering in a delayed mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tilmes, S.; Sanderson, B. M.; O'Neill, B. C.

    2016-08-01

    Decarbonization in the immediate future is required to limit global mean temperature (GMT) increase to 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions, if geoengineering is not considered. Here we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate climate outcomes if no mitigation is undertaken until GMT has reached 2°C. We find that late decarbonization in CESM without applying stratospheric sulfur injection (SSI) leads to a peak temperature increase of 3°C and GMT remains above 2° for 160 years. An additional gradual increase and then decrease of SSI over this period reaching about 1.5 times the aerosol burden resulting from the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1992 would limit the increase in GMT to 2.0° for the specific pathway and model. SSI produces mean and extreme temperatures in CESM comparable to an early decarbonization pathway, but aridity is not mitigated to the same extent.

  12. A new large initial condition ensemble to assess avoided impacts in a climate mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanderson, B. M.; Tebaldi, C.; Knutti, R.; Oleson, K. W.

    2014-12-01

    It has recently been demonstrated that when considering timescales of up to 50 years, natural variability may play an equal role to anthropogenic forcing on subcontinental trends for a variety of climate indicators. Thus, for many questions assessing climate impacts on such time and spatial scales, it has become clear that a significant number of ensemble members may be required to produce robust statistics (and especially so for extreme events). However, large ensemble experiments to date have considered the role of variability in a single scenario, leaving uncertain the relationship between the forced climate trajectory and the variability about that path. To address this issue, we present a new, publicly available, 15 member initial condition ensemble of 21st century climate projections for the RCP 4.5 scenario using the CESM1.1 Earth System Model, which we propose as a companion project to the existing 40 member CESM large ensemble which uses the higher greenhouse gas emission future of RCP8.5. This provides a valuable data set for assessing what societal and ecological impacts might be avoided through a moderate mitigation strategy in contrast to a fossil fuel intensive future. We present some early analyses of these combined ensembles to assess to what degree the climate variability can be considered to combine linearly with the underlying forced response. In regions where there is no detectable relationship between the mean state and the variability about the mean trajectory, then linear assumptions can be trivially exploited to utilize a single ensemble or control simulation to characterize the variability in any scenario of interest. We highlight regions where there is a detectable nonlinearity in extreme event frequency, how far in the future they will be manifested and propose mechanisms to account for these effects.

  13. NEA Mitigation Studies for Short Warning Time Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barbee, Brent; Syal, Megan Bruck; Gisler, Galen

    2016-01-01

    This talk describes current collaborative research efforts between NASA GSFC and the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) national labs (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) to design systems and frameworks for robust responses to short warning time near-Earth asteroid (NEA) scenarios, in which we would have less than 10 years to respond to an NEA on its way to impact the Earth.

  14. Computational Study of Scenarios Regarding Explosion Risk Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vlasin, Nicolae-Ioan; Mihai Pasculescu, Vlad; Florea, Gheorghe-Daniel; Cornel Suvar, Marius

    2016-10-01

    Exploration in order to discover new deposits of natural gas, upgrading techniques to exploit these resources and new ways to convert the heat capacity of these gases into industrial usable energy is the research areas of great interest around the globe. But all activities involving the handling of natural gas (exploitation, transport, combustion) are subjected to the same type of risk: the risk to explosion. Experiments carried out physical scenarios to determine ways to reduce this risk can be extremely costly, requiring suitable premises, equipment and apparatus, manpower, time and, not least, presenting the risk of personnel injury. Taking in account the above mentioned, the present paper deals with the possibility of studying the scenarios of gas explosion type events in virtual domain, exemplifying by performing a computer simulation of a stoichiometric air - methane explosion (methane is the main component of natural gas). The advantages of computer-assisted imply are the possibility of using complex virtual geometries of any form as the area of deployment phenomenon, the use of the same geometry for an infinite number of settings of initial parameters as input, total elimination the risk of personnel injury, decrease the execution time etc. Although computer simulations are hardware resources consuming and require specialized personnel to use the CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) techniques, the costs and risks associated with these methods are greatly diminished, presenting, in the same time, a major benefit in terms of execution time.

  15. The current biodiversity extinction event: Scenarios for mitigation and recovery

    PubMed Central

    Novacek, Michael J.; Cleland, Elsa E.

    2001-01-01

    The current massive degradation of habitat and extinction of species is taking place on a catastrophically short timescale, and their effects will fundamentally reset the future evolution of the planet's biota. The fossil record suggests that recovery of global ecosystems has required millions or even tens of millions of years. Thus, intervention by humans, the very agents of the current environmental crisis, is required for any possibility of short-term recovery or maintenance of the biota. Many current recovery efforts have deficiencies, including insufficient information on the diversity and distribution of species, ecological processes, and magnitude and interaction of threats to biodiversity (pollution, overharvesting, climate change, disruption of biogeochemical cycles, introduced or invasive species, habitat loss and fragmentation through land use, disruption of community structure in habitats, and others). A much greater and more urgently applied investment to address these deficiencies is obviously warranted. Conservation and restoration in human-dominated ecosystems must strengthen connections between human activities, such as agricultural or harvesting practices, and relevant research generated in the biological, earth, and atmospheric sciences. Certain threats to biodiversity require intensive international cooperation and input from the scientific community to mitigate their harmful effects, including climate change and alteration of global biogeochemical cycles. In a world already transformed by human activity, the connection between humans and the ecosystems they depend on must frame any strategy for the recovery of the biota. PMID:11344295

  16. Comparing the impacts of mitigation versus non-intervention scenarios on future temperature and precipitation extremes in the HadGEM2 climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caesar, John; Lowe, Jason A.

    2012-08-01

    Although international climate change negotiations focus on global mean temperature targets, it is also important to assess the impact of emission scenarios on climate extremes at the global and regional scale. This paper examines how temperature and precipitation extremes indices are projected to change around the globe during the 21st Century under an aggressive climate change mitigation scenario in the United Kingdom Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM2-AO coupled climate model, and how these changes might differ from a mid-range non-intervention scenario. Even under an aggressive mitigation strategy there are projected increases in warm temperature extremes on a global and regional scale up to the mid-21st Century, and temperature extremes tend to follow a similar trajectory to the projected global mean temperature change associated with each scenario. Changes in precipitation-related extremes are projected to be more variable. There are regional differences in the direction of changes and it appears that the aerosol forcing associated with the scenarios could have an important influence. The regions which are projected to benefit most from mitigation vary depending on the index being considered, but in general absolute increases in temperature extremes are reduced in the northern midlatitudes, whereas for frequency based indices it is northern South America, parts of the USA, Africa and Asia which see the largest avoided increases. For precipitation indices, northern South America sees the most consistent signal toward avoided drying conditions, along with the Mediterranean and parts of Russia and central Asia.

  17. 21st century United States emissions mitigation could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mitigating

    PubMed Central

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Voisin, Nathalie; Liu, Lu; Bramer, Lisa M.; Fortin, Daniel C.; Hathaway, John E.; Huang, Maoyi; Kyle, Page; Leung, L. Ruby; Li, Hong-Yi; Liu, Ying; Patel, Pralit L.; Pulsipher, Trenton C.; Rice, Jennie S.; Tesfa, Teklu K.; Vernon, Chris R.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2015-01-01

    There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water resources requires accounting for the second part of the equation, i.e., the impact of mitigation-induced changes in water demands from human activities. By using integrated, high-resolution models of human and natural system processes to understand potential synergies and/or constraints within the climate–energy–water nexus, we show that in the United States, over the course of the 21st century and under one set of consistent socioeconomics, the reductions in water stress from slower rates of climate change resulting from emission mitigation are overwhelmed by the increased water stress from the emissions mitigation itself. The finding that the human dimension outpaces the benefits from mitigating climate change is contradictory to the general perception that climate change mitigation improves water conditions. This research shows the potential for unintended and negative consequences of climate change mitigation. PMID:26240363

  18. 21st century United States emissions mitigation could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mitigating.

    PubMed

    Hejazi, Mohamad I; Voisin, Nathalie; Liu, Lu; Bramer, Lisa M; Fortin, Daniel C; Hathaway, John E; Huang, Maoyi; Kyle, Page; Leung, L Ruby; Li, Hong-Yi; Liu, Ying; Patel, Pralit L; Pulsipher, Trenton C; Rice, Jennie S; Tesfa, Teklu K; Vernon, Chris R; Zhou, Yuyu

    2015-08-25

    There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water resources requires accounting for the second part of the equation, i.e., the impact of mitigation-induced changes in water demands from human activities. By using integrated, high-resolution models of human and natural system processes to understand potential synergies and/or constraints within the climate-energy-water nexus, we show that in the United States, over the course of the 21st century and under one set of consistent socioeconomics, the reductions in water stress from slower rates of climate change resulting from emission mitigation are overwhelmed by the increased water stress from the emissions mitigation itself. The finding that the human dimension outpaces the benefits from mitigating climate change is contradictory to the general perception that climate change mitigation improves water conditions. This research shows the potential for unintended and negative consequences of climate change mitigation.

  19. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

    PubMed

    Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.

  20. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

    PubMed Central

    Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  1. Energy Structure and Energy Security under Climate Mitigation Scenarios in China.

    PubMed

    Matsumoto, Ken'ichi

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates how energy structure and energy security in China will change in the future under climate mitigation policy scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathways in a computable general equilibrium model. The findings suggest that to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, China needs to shift its energy structure from fossil fuel dominance to renewables and nuclear. The lower the allowable emissions, the larger the shifts required. Among fossil fuels, coal use particularly must significantly decrease. Such structural shifts will improve energy self-sufficiency, thus enhancing energy security. Under the policy scenarios, energy-source diversity as measured by the Herfindahl Index improves until 2050, after which diversity declines because of high dependence on a specific energy source (nuclear and biomass). Overall, however, it is revealed that energy security improves along with progress in climate mitigation. These improvements will also contribute to the economy by reducing energy procurement risks.

  2. Energy Structure and Energy Security under Climate Mitigation Scenarios in China

    PubMed Central

    Matsumoto, Ken’ichi

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates how energy structure and energy security in China will change in the future under climate mitigation policy scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathways in a computable general equilibrium model. The findings suggest that to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, China needs to shift its energy structure from fossil fuel dominance to renewables and nuclear. The lower the allowable emissions, the larger the shifts required. Among fossil fuels, coal use particularly must significantly decrease. Such structural shifts will improve energy self-sufficiency, thus enhancing energy security. Under the policy scenarios, energy-source diversity as measured by the Herfindahl Index improves until 2050, after which diversity declines because of high dependence on a specific energy source (nuclear and biomass). Overall, however, it is revealed that energy security improves along with progress in climate mitigation. These improvements will also contribute to the economy by reducing energy procurement risks. PMID:26660094

  3. Climate scenarios for the American Southwest in the next century

    SciTech Connect

    Diaz, H.F.

    1995-12-31

    The climate of the Southwest US is governed by two separate large-scale regimes during the course of the year. In the winter half-year, disturbances in the westerlies supply 40--80% of the annual total precipitation in the region. The precipitation is associated with frontal systems sweeping from the west and north through the area, and with the development of upper level troughs and occasional cutoff lows in the upper atmosphere. During the summer half-year, and particularly during the months of July--September, a monsoonal-type circulation system develops along western Mexico and extends into the desert areas of the US Southwest producing locally heavy thunderstorms and floods. In early fall, eastern Pacific hurricanes, occasionally recurving to the north and east across northwestern Mexico, can also produce widespread rains and locally severe flooding in the region. With regards to future changes in climate forced by increasing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, the question arises, as to whether the annual precipitation in the region will be more affected by changes in the winter-time regime, that is, through a modification of the polar jet stream and associated extratropical cyclone tracks, or whether an increase in the summer monsoon system will, at least in part, make up for a potential winter decline in precipitation. An increase in convective summer-season rainfall will also be accompanied by enhanced soil erosion, arroyo cutting, greater sediment loads in the region`s streams, and other problems. Climatic changes resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect will be superimposed on a rich spectrum of naturally occurring climatic variability at the relevant time scales that are of interest here, namely, decadal to century fluctuations.

  4. Failure Scenarios and Mitigations and for the BaBar Superconducting Solenoid

    SciTech Connect

    Thompson, EunJoo; Candia, A.; Craddock, W.W.; Racine, M.; Weisend, J.G., II; /SLAC

    2005-12-13

    The cryogenic department at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center is responsible for the operation, troubleshooting, and upgrade of the 1.5 Tesla superconducting solenoid detector for the BABAR B-factory experiment. Events that disable the detector are rare but significantly impact the availability of the detector for physics research. As a result, a number of systems and procedures have been developed over time to minimize the downtime of the detector, for example improved control systems, improved and automatic backup systems, and spares for all major components. Together they can prevent or mitigate many of the failures experienced by the utilities, mechanical systems, controls and instrumentation. In this paper we describe various failure scenarios, their effect on the detector, and the modifications made to mitigate the effects of the failure. As a result of these modifications the reliability of the detector has increased significantly with only 3 shutdowns of the detector due to cryogenics systems over the last 2 years.

  5. Quantifying climate change mitigation potential in Great Plains wetlands for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Byrd, Kristin B.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Wein, Anne; Bliss, Norman B.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Li, Zhengpeng

    2015-01-01

    We examined opportunities for avoided loss of wetland carbon stocks in the Great Plains of the United States in the context of future agricultural expansion through analysis of land-use land-cover (LULC) change scenarios, baseline carbon datasets and biogeochemical model outputs. A wetland map that classifies wetlands according to carbon pools was created to describe future patterns of carbon loss and potential carbon savings. Wetland avoided loss scenarios, superimposed upon LULC change scenarios, quantified carbon stocks preserved under criteria of carbon densities or land value plus cropland suitability. Up to 3420 km2 of wetlands may be lost in the region by 2050, mainly due to conversion of herbaceous wetlands in the Temperate Prairies where soil organic carbon (SOC) is highest. SOC loss would be approximately 0.20 ± 0.15 megagrams of carbon per hectare per year (MgC ha−1 yr−1), depending upon tillage practices on converted wetlands, and total ecosystem carbon loss in woody wetlands would be approximately 0.81 ± 0.41 MgC ha−1 yr−1, based on biogeochemical model results. Among wetlands vulnerable to conversion, wetlands in the Northern Glaciated Plains and Lake Agassiz Plains ecoregions exhibit very high mean SOC and on average, relatively low land values, potentially creating economically competitive opportunities for avoided carbon loss. This mitigation scenarios approach may be adapted by managers using their own preferred criteria to select sites that best meet their objectives. Results can help prioritize field-based assessments, where site-level investigations of carbon stocks, land value, and consideration of local priorities for climate change mitigation programs are needed.

  6. The ensemble scenarios projecting runoff changes in large Russian river basins in the 21st century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgiadi, A. G.; Koronkevich, N.; Milyukova, I. P.; Barabanova, E. A.

    2014-09-01

    An approach is presented for carrying out a long-term projection of river runoff changes in large Russian river basins in the first three decades of the 21st century. These changes may be caused by climate warming and socio-economic factors. The approach utilizes a method for scenario estimation of runoff changes with a range of possible climate warming effects. This range is chosen by generalizing calculation results obtained by using an ensemble of global climate models for two contrasting scenarios (A2 and B1) of globally-averaged air temperature rises. The approach also utilizes a method for alternative scenario estimation for water consumption as related to socio-economic changes. The estimates show that the expected runoff changes in the first third of this century due to climate warming scenarios can compensate the runoff decrease caused by the realization of some of the scenarios for socio-economic changes in the Volga River basin. The same compensation does not occur in the Don River basin, where negative effects are expected for the regional ecology.

  7. Scenarios of Global Municipal Water-Use Demand Projections over the 21st Century

    SciTech Connect

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Davies, Evan; Eom, Jiyong

    2013-03-06

    This paper establishes three future projections of global municipal water use to the end of the 21st century: A reference business-as usual (BAU) scenario, a High Technological Improvement (High Tech) scenario and a Low Technological Improvement (Low Tech) scenario. A global municipal water demand model is constructed using global water use statistics at the country-scale, calibrated to the base year of 2005, and simulated to the end of the 21st century. Since the constructed water demand model hinges on socioeconomic variables (population, income), water price, and end-use technology and efficiency improvement rates, projections of those input variables are adopted to characterize the uncertainty in future water demand estimates. The water demand model is linked to the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a global change integrated assessment model. Under the reference scenario, the global total water withdrawal increases from 466 km3/year in 2005 to 941 km3/year in 2100,while withdrawals in the high and low tech scenarios are 321 km3/ year and 2000 km3/ year, respectively. This wide range (321-2000 km3/ year) indicates the level of uncertainty associated with such projections. The simulated global municipal demand projections are most sensitive to population and income projections, then to end-use technology and efficiency projections, and finally to water price. Thus, using water price alone as a policy measure to reduce municipal water use may substantiate the share of municipal water price of people’s annual incomes.

  8. A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, L.

    2016-12-01

    Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to the human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further compounded in urban areas by the urban heat island (UHI). Because the majority of the world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the high temperature problem. It is now recognized that in addition to the traditional emphasis on preparedness to cope with heat stress, these solutions should include active modifications of urban land form to reduce urban temperatures. Here we use an urban climate model to investigate the effectiveness of these active methods in mitigating the urban heat, both individually and collectively. By adopting highly reflective roofs citywide, almost all the cities in the USA and in southern Canada are transformed into cold islands or "white oases" where the daytime surface temperatures are lower than those in the surrounding rural land. The average oasis effect is -3.4 ± 0.3 K (mean ± 1 standard error) for the period 2071-2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge strategy consisting of cool roof, street vegetation and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the greenhouse gas induced warming.

  9. A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Schultz, Natalie M.

    2017-07-01

    Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs). Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases - cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of -3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071-2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

  10. Mitigation Policy Scenario of Space Debris Threat Related with National Security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herdiansyah, Herdis; Frimawaty, Evy; Munir, Ahmad

    2016-02-01

    The development of air space recently entered a new phase, when the space issues correlated with the future of a country. In past time, the space authorization was related with advancing technology by many space mission and various satellite launchings, or it could be said that who ruled technology will rule the space. Therefore, the numerous satellites in the space could be a threat for the countries which are mainly located in the path of the satellite, especially in the equatorial region including Indonesia. This study aims to create a policy scenario in mitigating the threat of space debris. The results showed that although space debris was not threatened national security for now, but the potential and its impact on the future potentially harmful. The threats of orbit circulation for some experts considered as a threat for national security, because its danger potential which caused by space debris could significantly damage the affected areas. However, until now Indonesia has no comprehensive mitigation strategy for space matters although it has been ratified by the United Nations Convention.

  11. An Assessment of the Effectiveness and Viability of Various Mitigation Technologies under Different Scenarios Using the PESERA-DESMICE Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nainggolan, D.; Fleskens, L.; Stringer, L. C.

    2012-04-01

    Scenario analysis of policy options is one of the most valuable ways in which scientific models can be employed to inform decision-making process. This is particularly relevant for land degradation mitigation policies, which are rarely based on this kind of analysis. In this paper we show how the PESERA-DESMICE modelling framework can be used in the assessment of policy options to combat land degradation, illustrating the model analysis of policy options with scenarios for different study sites. The key assumption underlying our analyses is that technologies must be attractive in economic terms, i.e. have the potential to, from a land user perspective, lead to cost reductions, benefit enhancements or both. Trade-off and cost-effectiveness thus form integral parts of the framework. The sequence of options is explored by: (1) Determining which technologies are feasible in which locations. This includes an assessment of economic viability for the land user in each location; we term these the technology scenarios; (2) Determining how policy instruments such as subsidies and credit can have the potential to influence upfront investment requirements and economic viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation on the other; we term these the policy scenarios; (3) Determining how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the global scenarios. All types of scenario were found to be useful to policymakers in different ways. Technology scenarios may help focus the portfolio of land degradation mitigation technologies towards areas in need of policy support; policy scenarios further detail the types and levels of support necessary for promoting adoption of the technology; while global scenarios demonstrate how the changes envisaged contribute to the achievement of wider sustainable development goals. Keywords: integrated environmental model, land degradation, mitigation technologies, scenario

  12. Scenarios of large mammal loss in Europe for the 21st century.

    PubMed

    Rondinini, Carlo; Visconti, Piero

    2015-08-01

    Distributions and populations of large mammals are declining globally, leading to an increase in their extinction risk. We forecasted the distribution of extant European large mammals (17 carnivores and 10 ungulates) based on 2 Rio+20 scenarios of socioeconomic development: business as usual and reduced impact through changes in human consumption of natural resources. These scenarios are linked to scenarios of land-use change and climate change through the spatial allocation of land conversion up to 2050. We used a hierarchical framework to forecast the extent and distribution of mammal habitat based on species' habitat preferences (as described in the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List database) within a suitable climatic space fitted to the species' current geographic range. We analyzed the geographic and taxonomic variation of habitat loss for large mammals and the potential effect of the reduced impact policy on loss mitigation. Averaging across scenarios, European large mammals were predicted to lose 10% of their habitat by 2050 (25% in the worst-case scenario). Predicted loss was much higher for species in northwestern Europe, where habitat is expected to be lost due to climate and land-use change. Change in human consumption patterns was predicted to substantially improve the conservation of habitat for European large mammals, but not enough to reduce extinction risk if species cannot adapt locally to climate change or disperse. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  13. Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest.

    PubMed

    Ault, Toby R; Mankin, Justin S; Cook, Benjamin I; Smerdon, Jason E

    2016-10-01

    Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would impose unprecedented stress on the limited water resources of the area, making it critical to evaluate future risks not only under different climate change mitigation scenarios but also for different aspects of regional hydroclimate. We find that changes in the mean hydroclimate state, rather than its variability, determine megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Estimates of megadrought probabilities based on precipitation alone tend to underestimate risk. Furthermore, business-as-usual emissions of greenhouse gases will drive regional warming and drying, regardless of large precipitation uncertainties. We find that regional temperature increases alone push megadrought risk above 70, 90, or 99% by the end of the century, even if precipitation increases moderately, does not change, or decreases, respectively. Although each possibility is supported by some climate model simulations, the latter is the most common outcome for the American Southwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 generation models. An aggressive reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions cuts megadrought risks nearly in half.

  14. Relative Impacts of Mitigation, Temperature, and Precipitation on 21st-Century Megadrought Risk in the American Southwest

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ault, Toby R.; Mankin, Justin S.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.

    2015-01-01

    Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would impose unprecedented stress on the limited water resources of the area, making it critical to evaluate future risks not only under different climate change mitigation scenarios but also for different aspects of regional hydroclimate. We find that changes in the mean hydroclimate state, rather than its variability, determine megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Estimates of megadrought probabilities based on precipitation alone tend to underestimate risk. Furthermore, business-as-usual emissions of greenhouse gases will drive regional warming and drying, regardless of large precipitation uncertainties. We find that regional temperature increases alone push megadrought risk above 70, 90, or 99% by the end of the century, even if precipitation increases moderately, does not change, or decreases, respectively. Although each possibility is supported by some climate model simulations, the latter is the most common outcome for the American Southwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 generation models. An aggressive reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions cuts megadrought risks nearly in half.

  15. Relative Impacts of Mitigation, Temperature, and Precipitation on 21st-Century Megadrought Risk in the American Southwest

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ault, Toby R.; Mankin, Justin S.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.

    2015-01-01

    Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would impose unprecedented stress on the limited water resources of the area, making it critical to evaluate future risks not only under different climate change mitigation scenarios but also for different aspects of regional hydroclimate. We find that changes in the mean hydroclimate state, rather than its variability, determine megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Estimates of megadrought probabilities based on precipitation alone tend to underestimate risk. Furthermore, business-as-usual emissions of greenhouse gases will drive regional warming and drying, regardless of large precipitation uncertainties. We find that regional temperature increases alone push megadrought risk above 70, 90, or 99% by the end of the century, even if precipitation increases moderately, does not change, or decreases, respectively. Although each possibility is supported by some climate model simulations, the latter is the most common outcome for the American Southwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 generation models. An aggressive reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions cuts megadrought risks nearly in half.

  16. Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest

    PubMed Central

    Ault, Toby R.; Mankin, Justin S.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.

    2016-01-01

    Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would impose unprecedented stress on the limited water resources of the area, making it critical to evaluate future risks not only under different climate change mitigation scenarios but also for different aspects of regional hydroclimate. We find that changes in the mean hydroclimate state, rather than its variability, determine megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Estimates of megadrought probabilities based on precipitation alone tend to underestimate risk. Furthermore, business-as-usual emissions of greenhouse gases will drive regional warming and drying, regardless of large precipitation uncertainties. We find that regional temperature increases alone push megadrought risk above 70, 90, or 99% by the end of the century, even if precipitation increases moderately, does not change, or decreases, respectively. Although each possibility is supported by some climate model simulations, the latter is the most common outcome for the American Southwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 generation models. An aggressive reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions cuts megadrought risks nearly in half. PMID:27713927

  17. Scenario analysis of fertilizer management practices for N2O mitigation from corn systems in Canada.

    PubMed

    Abalos, Diego; Smith, Ward N; Grant, Brian B; Drury, Craig F; MacKell, Sarah; Wagner-Riddle, Claudia

    2016-12-15

    Effective management of nitrogen (N) fertilizer application by farmers provides great potential for reducing emissions of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O). However, such potential is rarely achieved because our understanding of what practices (or combination of practices) lead to N2O reductions without compromising crop yields remains far from complete. Using scenario analysis with the process-based model DNDC, this study explored the effects of nine fertilizer practices on N2O emissions and crop yields from two corn production systems in Canada. The scenarios differed in: timing of fertilizer application, fertilizer rate, number of applications, fertilizer type, method of application and use of nitrification/urease inhibitors. Statistical analysis showed that during the initial calibration and validation stages the simulated results had no significant total error or bias compared to measured values, yet grain yield estimations warrant further model improvement. Sidedress fertilizer applications reduced yield-scaled N2O emissions by c. 60% compared to fall fertilization. Nitrification inhibitors further reduced yield-scaled N2O emissions by c. 10%; urease inhibitors had no effect on either N2O emissions or crop productivity. The combined adoption of split fertilizer application with inhibitors at a rate 10% lower than the conventional application rate (i.e. 150kgNha(-1)) was successful, but the benefits were lower than those achieved with single fertilization at sidedress. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of fertilizer management practices that enables policy development regarding N2O mitigation from agricultural soils in Canada. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adloff, Fanny; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Jordà, Gabriel; Aznar, Roland; Déqué, Michel; Herrmann, Marine; Marcos, Marta; Dubois, Clotilde; Padorno, Elena; Alvarez-Fanjul, Enrique; Gomis, Damià

    2015-11-01

    The Mediterranean climate is expected to become warmer and drier during the twenty-first century. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change could be modulated by the choice of the socio-economic scenario as well as the choice of the boundary conditions mainly the Atlantic hydrography, the river runoff and the atmospheric fluxes. To assess and quantify the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model NEMOMED8 set up for the Mediterranean Sea. The model is forced by air-sea fluxes derived from the regional climate model ARPEGE-Climate at a 50-km horizontal resolution. Historical simulations representing the climate of the period 1961-2000 were run to obtain a reference state. From this baseline, various sensitivity experiments were performed for the period 2001-2099, following different socio-economic scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. For the A2 scenario, the main three boundary forcings (river runoff, near-Atlantic water hydrography and air-sea fluxes) were changed one by one to better identify the role of each forcing in the way the ocean responds to climate change. In two additional simulations (A1B, B1), the scenario is changed, allowing to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070-2099 period compared to 1961-1990, the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in

  19. Integrated Assessment of Global Water Scarcity over the 21st Century under Multiple Climate Change Mitigation Policies

    SciTech Connect

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and a global population of 14 billion by 2095, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demand for water exceeds the amount of water availability in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 20% and 27% of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change.

  20. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2017-04-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

  1. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; ...

    2017-03-28

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

  2. Mitigation of hurricane storm surge impacts: Modeling scenarios over wide continental shelves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lima Rego, Joao; Li, Chunyan

    2010-05-01

    The improvement of present understanding of surge dynamics over wide and shallow shelves is vital for the improvement of our ability to forecast storm surge impacts to coastal regions, particularly the low-lying land areas that are most vulnerable to hurricane flooding (e.g. the Northern Gulf of Mexico, coastal Bangladesh, the Southeast China sea). Given the increase of global sea-surface temperature, both the total number and proportion of intense tropical cyclones have increased notably since 1970 (Emanuel, 2005; Nature). Therefore, more intense hurricanes may hit densely populated coastal regions, and this problem may be aggravated by the prospect of accelerated sea-level rise in the 21st century. This presentation offers a review of recent work on hurricane-induced storm surge. The finite-volume coastal ocean model ("FVCOM", by Chen et al., 2003; J. Atmos. Ocean Tech.) was applied to the storm surge induced by Hurricanes Rita and Ike along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas in 2005 and 2008, respectively, to study coastal storm surge dynamics. The sensitivity analysis of Rego and Li (2009; Geophys. Res. Lett.) demonstrated how stronger, wider or faster tropical cyclones would affect coastal flooding. Li, Weeks and Rego (2009; Geophys. Res. Lett) looked into how hurricane flooding and receding dynamics differ, concluding that the overland flow in the latter stage is of considerable importance. Rego and Li (2010; J. Geophys. Res.) showed how extreme events may result of a combination of non-extreme factors, by studying the nonlinear interaction of tide and hurricane surge. The ability of models to reproduce these extreme events and to proactive plan for damage reduction is covered in Rego and Li's (2010; J. Marine Syst.) study of how barrier island systems protect coastal bays from offshore surge propagation. Here we combine these results for a wider perspective on how hurricane flooding could be mitigated under changing conditions.

  3. Sea water intrusion by sea-level rise: scenarios for the 21st century.

    PubMed

    Loáiciga, Hugo A; Pingel, Thomas J; Garcia, Elizabeth S

    2012-01-01

    This study presents a method to assess the contributions of 21st-century sea-level rise and groundwater extraction to sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers. Sea water intrusion is represented by the landward advance of the 10,000 mg/L iso-salinity line, a concentration of dissolved salts that renders groundwater unsuitable for human use. A mathematical formulation of the resolution of sea water intrusion among its causes was quantified via numerical simulation under scenarios of change in groundwater extraction and sea-level rise in the 21st century. The developed method is illustrated with simulations of sea water intrusion in the Seaside Area sub-basin near the City of Monterey, California (USA), where predictions of mean sea-level rise through the early 21st century range from 0.10 to 0.90 m due to increasing global mean surface temperature. The modeling simulation was carried out with a state-of-the-art numerical model that accounts for the effects of salinity on groundwater density and can approximate hydrostratigraphic geometry closely. Simulations of sea water intrusion corresponding to various combinations of groundwater extraction and sea-level rise established that groundwater extraction is the predominant driver of sea water intrusion in the study aquifer. The method presented in this work is applicable to coastal aquifers under a variety of other scenarios of change not considered in this work. For example, one could resolve what changes in groundwater extraction and/or sea level would cause specified levels of groundwater salinization at strategic locations and times.

  4. Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trusel, Luke D.; Frey, Karen E.; Das, Sarah B.; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Kuipers Munneke, Peter; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

    2015-12-01

    Ice shelves modulate Antarctic contributions to sea-level rise and thereby represent a critical, climate-sensitive interface between the Antarctic ice sheet and the global ocean. Following rapid atmospheric warming over the past decades, Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves have progressively retreated, at times catastrophically. This decay supports hypotheses of thermal limits of viability for ice shelves via surface melt forcing. Here we use a polar-adapted regional climate model and satellite observations to quantify the nonlinear relationship between surface melting and summer air temperature. Combining observations and multimodel simulations, we examine melt evolution and intensification before observed ice shelf collapse on the Antarctic Peninsula. We then assess the twenty-first-century evolution of surface melt across Antarctica under intermediate and high emissions climate scenarios. Our projections reveal a scenario-independent doubling of Antarctic-wide melt by 2050. Between 2050 and 2100, however, significant divergence in melt occurs between the two climate scenarios. Under the high emissions pathway by 2100, melt on several ice shelves approaches or surpasses intensities that have historically been associated with ice shelf collapse, at least on the northeast Antarctic Peninsula.

  5. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Calvin, K.

    2013-03-01

    We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

  6. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

    SciTech Connect

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline underlying socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy while increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food, energy, and land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

  7. Mitigation of 21st century Antarctic sea ice loss by stratospheric ozone recovery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Karen L.; Polvani, Lorenzo M.; Marsh, Daniel R.

    2012-10-01

    We investigate the effect of stratospheric ozone recovery on Antarctic sea ice in the next half-century, by comparing two ensembles of integrations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, from 2001 to 2065. One ensemble is performed by specifying all forcings as per the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5; the second ensemble is identical in all respects, except for the surface concentrations of ozone depleting substances, which are held fixed at year 2000 levels, thus preventing stratospheric ozone recovery. Sea ice extent declines in both ensembles, as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. However, we find that sea ice loss is ∼33% greater for the ensemble in which stratospheric ozone recovery does not take place, and that this effect is statistically significant. Our results, which confirm a previous study dealing with ozone depletion, suggest that ozone recovery will substantially mitigate Antarctic sea ice loss in the coming decades.

  8. Scenario Analysis on Global Hydropower Development Paths and Their Contribution to GHG Mitigation Utilizing a Dynamic CGE Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, Z.; Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.; Masaki, Y.; Hijioka, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Currently, hydropower accounts for 16% of the worldwide electricity power supply and 86% of the total renewable electricity energy source due to its low cost, low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, and relatively high reliability. It is well known that the global hydropower has not yet been fully developed, but the future paths of development and corresponding contribution to GHG mitigation in each region combined with socioeconomic activities are less known. Here we investigated following three questions. How much will hydropower generation increase in the future? Will hydropower generation reach the economically exploitable capability (EEC)? If this will be the case, when and where will it occur? How much GHG emission will be reduced by adding new hydropower? In order to address these questions, we used the AIM/CGE model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to quantify the global hydropower development paths and corresponding GHG mitigation contribution for 17 regions in the world associated with a socio-economic scenario termed SSP2. We compared two scenarios with different assumptions on EEC. One is BAU which takes EEC from the report of "World Energy Resources", the other is FIX_BAU which fix EEC at the current hydropower generation amount throughout the research period (2005-2100) or no additional installation of hydropower plants. The comparison between two scenarios indicated that promoting hydropower development contributed to GHG emission reduction globally but the magnitude varied by region. For example we found that in North Africa, hydropower development grew fast because of the rapid economic development, but it reached EEC as soon as in 2040 because of limitation in EEC due to its climatic and geographical conditions. Conversely, in Brazil, it grew steadily and did not reach its abundant EEC. Consequently, GHG mitigation contribution of North Africa is far less than Brazil. This research provides important information for policy makers to

  9. Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Neumeyer, Charles; Goldston, Robert

    2016-04-28

    Abstract: The Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform an EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.

  10. Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

    DOE PAGES

    Neumeyer, Charles; Goldston, Robert

    2016-04-28

    Abstract: The Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform anmore » EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.« less

  11. Scenarios of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping for climate studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephenson, S. R.; Davis, S. J.; Zender, C. S.; Smith, L. C.

    2013-12-01

    Receding Arctic sea ice coupled with increased resource demand in east Asia have recast the Arctic as an international trade space facilitating export of petroleum and minerals and offering potential alternative pathways for global maritime trade. Several studies have examined the future impact of increased vessel traffic in the Arctic on emissions of greenhouse gases and black carbon (BC); however, the net impact of these emissions on climate forcing in the region is not well understood. Here we present several scenarios of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping for climate studies. Vessel transits between 5 east Asian ports (Tianjin, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tokyo/Yokohama, Busan) and 2 European ports (Rotterdam, Hamburg) are estimated from 2010-2050 according to projected sea ice concentration and thickness, trends in cargo export volumes, and vessel ice class and cargo capacity. Sea ice data are represented by a 7-model ensemble mean from CMIP5 under two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5). Emissions presented (CO2, CH4, N2O, NOx, SOx, BC) are obtained by convolving projected transits with trends in emissions factors. Results illustrate a range of emissions inventories for the Arctic owing to differences in vessel accessibility, trade volume, routes, and fuel mixtures.

  12. Greenhouse gas emissions from the waste sector in Argentina in business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios.

    PubMed

    Santalla, Estela; Córdoba, Verónica; Blanco, Gabriel

    2013-08-01

    The objective of this work was the application of 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for the estimation of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the waste sector in Argentina as a preliminary exercise for greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory development and to compare with previous inventories based on 1996 IPCC Guidelines. Emissions projections to 2030 were evaluated under two scenarios--business as usual (BAU), and mitigation--and the calculations were done by using the ad hoc developed IPCC software. According to local activity data, in the business-as-usual scenario, methane emissions from solid waste disposal will increase by 73% by 2030 with respect to the emissions of year 2000. In the mitigation scenario, based on the recorded trend of methane captured in landfills, a decrease of 50% from the BAU scenario should be achieved by 2030. In the BAU scenario, GHG emissions from domestic wastewater will increase 63% from 2000 to 2030. Methane emissions from industrial wastewater, calculated from activity data of dairy, swine, slaughterhouse, citric, sugar, and wine sectors, will increase by 58% from 2000 to 2030 while methane emissions from domestic will increase 74% in the same period. Results show that GHG emissions calculated from 2006 IPCC Guidelines resulted in lower levels than those reported in previous national inventories for solid waste disposal and domestic wastewater categories, while levels were 18% higher for industrial wastewater. The implementation of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Inventories is now considering by the UNFCCC for non-Annex I countries in order to enhance the compilation of inventories based on comparable good practice methods. This work constitutes the first GHG emissions estimation from the waste sector of Argentina applying the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and the ad doc developed software. It will contribute to identifying the main differences between the models applied in the estimation of

  13. A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

    SciTech Connect

    Race, Caitlin; Steinbach, Michael; Ganguly, Auroop R; Semazzi, Fred; Kumar, Vipin

    2010-01-01

    The connections among greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios, global warming, and frequencies of hurricanes or tropical cyclones are among the least understood in climate science but among the most fiercely debated in the context of adaptation decisions or mitigation policies. Here we show that a knowledge discovery strategy, which leverages observations and climate model simulations, offers the promise of developing credible projections of tropical cyclones based on sea surface temperatures (SST) in a warming environment. While this study motivates the development of new methodologies in statistics and data mining, the ability to solve challenging climate science problems with innovative combinations of traditional and state-of-the-art methods is demonstrated. Here we develop new insights, albeit in a proof-of-concept sense, on the relationship between sea surface temperatures and hurricane frequencies, and generate the most likely projections with uncertainty bounds for storm counts in the 21st-century warming environment based in turn on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our preliminary insights point to the benefits that can be achieved for climate science and impacts analysis, as well as adaptation and mitigation policies, by a solution strategy that remains tailored to the climate domain and complements physics-based climate model simulations with a combination of existing and new computational and data science approaches.

  14. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century.

    PubMed

    Nicholls, Robert J; Tol, Richard S J

    2006-04-15

    Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

  15. Planning ahead for asteroid and comet hazard mitigation, phase 1: parameter space exploration and scenario modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Plesko, Catherine S; Clement, R Ryan; Weaver, Robert P; Bradley, Paul A; Huebner, Walter F

    2009-01-01

    The mitigation of impact hazards resulting from Earth-approaching asteroids and comets has received much attention in the popular press. However, many questions remain about the near-term and long-term, feasibility and appropriate application of all proposed methods. Recent and ongoing ground- and space-based observations of small solar-system body composition and dynamics have revolutionized our understanding of these bodies (e.g., Ryan (2000), Fujiwara et al. (2006), and Jedicke et al. (2006)). Ongoing increases in computing power and algorithm sophistication make it possible to calculate the response of these inhomogeneous objects to proposed mitigation techniques. Here we present the first phase of a comprehensive hazard mitigation planning effort undertaken by Southwest Research Institute and Los Alamos National Laboratory. We begin by reviewing the parameter space of the object's physical and chemical composition and trajectory. We then use the radiation hydrocode RAGE (Gittings et al. 2008), Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport (see Clement et al., this conference), and N-body dynamics codes to explore the effects these variations in object properties have on the coupling of energy into the object from a variety of mitigation techniques, including deflection and disruption by nuclear and conventional munitions, and a kinetic impactor.

  16. Capital investment requirements for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation in power generation on near term to century time scales and global to regional spatial scales

    SciTech Connect

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Kyle, G. Page

    2014-11-01

    Electrification plays a crucial role in cost-effective greenhouse gas emissions mitigation strategies. Such strategies in turn carry implications for financial capital markets. This paper explores the implication of climate mitigation policy for capital investment demands by the electric power sector on decade to century time scales. We go further to explore the implications of technology performance and the stringency of climate policy for capital investment demands by the power sector. Finally, we discuss the regional distribution of investment demands. We find that stabilizing GHG emissions will require additional investment in the electricity generation sector over and above investments that would be need in the absence of climate policy, in the range of 16 to 29 Trillion US$ (60-110%) depending on the stringency of climate policy during the period 2015 to 2095 under default technology assumptions. This increase reflects the higher capital intensity of power systems that control emissions. Limits on the penetration of nuclear and carbon capture and storage technology could increase costs substantially. Energy efficiency improvements can reduce the investment requirement by 8 to21 Trillion US$ (default technology assumptions), depending on climate policy scenario with higher savings being obtained under the most stringent climate policy. The heaviest investments in power generation were observed in the China, India, SE Asia and Africa regions with the latter three regions dominating in the second half of the 21st century.

  17. Divergent trajectories of Antarctic ice shelf surface melt under 21st century climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trusel, L. D.; Frey, K. E.; Das, S. B.; Kuipers Munneke, P.; van Meijgaard, E.

    2014-12-01

    Antarctic ice shelves represent a critical interface between continental ice masses and the surrounding ocean. Breakup events of several ice shelves in recent decades have been linked to an increase in intense surface melting, and have in turn lead to cascading effects including accelerated glacier discharge into the ocean. In this study, we utilized sophisticated regional and global climate models (GCMs) to assess potential future surface melt trajectories across Antarctica under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). RACMO2.1, a polar-adapted regional atmospheric climate model, was forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1980-2010) and by two GCMs, EC-EARTH and HadGEM2-ES (2007-2100). Using RACMO2.1, we observed an exponential growth function well represents the relationship between ice shelf surface meltwater production and mean summer (DJF) 2-meter air temperature (t2m). We employed this melt-t2m relationship to project melt using t2m output from an ensemble of five CMIP5-based GCMs incorporating the NCAR Community Land Model 4 (CLM4), following spatial downscaling and bias correction using t2m from ERA-Interim-forced RACMO2.1. Our resulting GCM-derived melt projections provide an independent and methodologically unique perspective into potential future melt pathways, complementary to those derived from RACMO2.1. Most notably, both RACMO2.1 and the CMIP5 ensemble reveal divergent trajectories of meltwater production beyond 2050 under the two climate scenarios. For many ice shelves in RCP4.5, meltwater production through 2100 remains at levels comparable to present. Conversely, under RCP8.5 all methods indicate non-linear melt intensification, resulting in a four-fold increase in the Antarctic-wide meltwater volume by the end of the 21st century. For some ice shelves, including Larsen C and Wilkins (Antarctic Peninsula), and Shackleton and West (Wilkes Land), spatially averaged end-of-century meltwater production within RCP8.5 approaches or surpasses levels

  18. Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.

    2012-12-01

    US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some

  19. Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

    PubMed

    Princé, Karine; Lorrillière, Romain; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Léger, François; Jiguet, Frédéric

    2015-01-01

    Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture) showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform sustainable

  20. Forecasting the Effects of Land Use Scenarios on Farmland Birds Reveal a Potential Mitigation of Climate Change Impacts

    PubMed Central

    Princé, Karine; Lorrillière, Romain; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Léger, François; Jiguet, Frédéric

    2015-01-01

    Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture) showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform sustainable

  1. Planning Ahead for Asteroid Hazard Mitigation, Phase 1: Parameter Space Exploration and Scenario Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plesko, C. Weaver, R.; Clement, R.; Bradley, P.; Huebner, W.

    The mitigation of impact hazards resulting from Earth-approaching asteroids and comets has received much attention in the popular press. However, many questions remain about the near-term and long-term feasibility and appropriate application of all proposed methods. Recent and ongoing ground and space-based observations of small solar system body composition and dynamics have revolutionized our understanding of these bodies (e.g., Ryan (2000), Fujiwara et al. (2006), and Jedicke et al. (2006)). Ongoing increases in computing power and algorithm sophistication make it possible to calculate the response of these inhomogeneous objects to proposed mitigation techniques. Here we present the first phase of a comprehensive hazard mitigation planning effort undertaken by Southwest Research Institute and Los Alamos National Laboratory. We begin by reviewing the parameter space of the objects physical and chemical composition and trajectory. We then use the radiation hydrocode RAGE (Gittings et al. 2008), Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport (see Clement et al., this conference), and N-body dynamics codes to explore the effects these variations in object properties have on the coupling of energy into the object from a variety of mitigation techniques, including deflection and disruption by nuclear and conventional munitions, and a kinetic impactor. Preliminary results for models of the deflection of a 100 m basalt sphere by a 100 kt nuclear burst (Bradley et al., LPSC 2009) are encouraging. A 40 cm/s velocity away from the burst is imparted to the objects center of mass without disruption. Further results will be presented at the meeting.

  2. Projections of glacier change in the Altai Mountains under twenty-first century climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yong; Enomoto, Hiroyuki; Ohata, Tetsuo; Kitabata, Hideyuki; Kadota, Tsutomu; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

    2016-11-01

    We project glacier surface mass balances of the Altai Mountains over the period 2006-2100 for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using daily near-surface air temperature and precipitation from 12 global climate models in combination with a surface mass balance model. The results indicate that the Altai glaciers will undergo sustained mass loss throughout the 21st for both RCPs and reveal the future fate of glaciers of different sizes. By 2100, glacier area in the region will shrink by 26 ± 10 % for RCP4.5, while it will shrink by 60 ± 15 % for RCP8.5. According to our simulations, most disappearing glaciers are located in the western part of the Altai Mountains. For RCP4.5, all glaciers disappearing in the twenty-first century have a present-day size smaller than 5.0 km2, while for RCP8.5, an additional 7 % of glaciers in the initial size class of 5.0-10.0 km2 also vanish. We project different trends in the total meltwater discharge of the region for the two RCPs, which does not peak before 2100, with important consequences for regional water availability, particular for the semi-arid and arid regions. This further highlights the potential implications of change in the Altai glaciers on regional hydrology and environment.

  3. Intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ganguly, Auroop R

    2011-01-01

    Recent research on the projection of precipitation extremes has either focused on conceptual physical mechanisms that generate heavy precipitation or rigorous statistical methods that extrapolate tail behavior. However, informing both climate prediction and impact assessment requires concurrent physically and statistically oriented analysis. A combined examination of climate model simulations and observation-based reanalysis data sets suggests more intense and frequent precipitation extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios. Utilization of statistical extreme value theory and resampling-based uncertainty quantification combined with consideration of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship reveals consistently intensifying trends for precipitation extremes at a global-average scale. However, regional and decadal analyses reveal specific discrepancies in the physical mechanisms governing precipitation extremes, as well as their statistical trends, especially in the tropics. The intensifying trend of precipitation extremes has quantifiable impacts on intensity-duration-frequency curves, which in turn have direct implications for hydraulic engineering design and water-resources management. The larger uncertainties at regional and decadal scales suggest the need for caution during regional-scale adaptation or preparedness decisions. Future research needs to explore the possibility of uncertainty reduction through higher resolution global climate models, statistical or dynamical downscaling, as well as improved understanding of precipitation extremes processes.

  4. Integrated mitigation and solar radiation management scenarios under combined climate guardrails

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stankoweit, Marius; Schmidt, Hauke; Roshan, Elnaz; Pieper, Patrick; Held, Hermann

    2015-04-01

    In addition to the climate policy options 'mitigation' and 'adaptation' solar radiation management (SRM) has been put on the agenda. As SRM costs are comparably low compared to mitigation costs, including SRM risks in the analysis proves essential. In our contribution we focus on precipitation pattern changes as potential side-effects of SRM and perform an integrated mitigation-SRM-based analysis on the basis of economic welfare optimization, constrained by climate guardrails. We define a tolerable scale of precipitation changes by the anomalies that would have been tolerated under a temperature target. Given that metric and a temperature target, by utilizing the integrated assessment model MIND, we derive the cost reduction, induced by including the additional option of SRM. We show that the cost reduction is a strong function of the fraction of Giorgi regions, for which we require compliance with the newly defined SRM guardrail. Compliance with all Giorgi regions might eliminate most of the economic gain achievable through SRM. The effects of alternative parameterizations of the SRM-precipitation pattern change influence chain are discussed.

  5. Assessment of the water supply:demand ratios in a Mediterranean basin under different global change scenarios and mitigation alternatives.

    PubMed

    Boithias, Laurie; Acuña, Vicenç; Vergoñós, Laura; Ziv, Guy; Marcé, Rafael; Sabater, Sergi

    2014-02-01

    Spatial differences in the supply and demand of ecosystem services such as water provisioning often imply that the demand for ecosystem services cannot be fulfilled at the local scale, but it can be fulfilled at larger scales (regional, continental). Differences in the supply:demand (S:D) ratio for a given service result in different values, and these differences might be assessed with monetary or non-monetary metrics. Water scarcity occurs where and when water resources are not enough to meet all the demands, and this affects equally the service of water provisioning and the ecosystem needs. In this study we assess the value of water in a Mediterranean basin under different global change (i.e. both climate and anthropogenic changes) and mitigation scenarios, with a non-monetary metric: the S:D ratio. We computed water balances across the Ebro basin (North-East Spain) with the spatially explicit InVEST model. We highlight the spatial and temporal mismatches existing across a single hydrological basin regarding water provisioning and its consumption, considering or not, the environmental demand (environmental flow). The study shows that water scarcity is commonly a local issue (sub-basin to region), but that all demands are met at the largest considered spatial scale (basin). This was not the case in the worst-case scenario (increasing demands and decreasing supply), as the S:D ratio at the basin scale was near 1, indicating that serious problems of water scarcity might occur in the near future even at the basin scale. The analysis of possible mitigation scenarios reveals that the impact of global change may be counteracted by the decrease of irrigated areas. Furthermore, the comparison between a non-monetary (S:D ratio) and a monetary (water price) valuation metrics reveals that the S:D ratio provides similar values and might be therefore used as a spatially explicit metric to valuate the ecosystem service water provisioning. © 2013.

  6. A probabilistic approach to 21st century regional sea-level projections using RCP and High-end scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jackson, Luke P.; Jevrejeva, Svetlana

    2016-11-01

    Sea-level change is an integrated climate system response due to changes in radiative forcing, anthropogenic land-water use and land-motion. Projecting sea-level at a global and regional scale requires a subset of projections - one for each sea-level component given a particular climate-change scenario. We construct relative sea-level projections through the 21st century for RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5 and High-end (RCP 8.5 with increased ice-sheet contribution) scenarios by aggregating spatial projections of individual sea-level components in a probabilistic manner. Most of the global oceans adhere to the projected global average sea level change within 5 cm throughout the century for all scenarios; however coastal regions experience localised effects due to the non-uniform spatial patterns of individual components. This can result in local projections that are 10‧s of centimetres different from the global average by 2100. Early in the century, RSL projections are consistent across all scenarios, however from the middle of the century the patterns of RSL for RCP scenarios deviate from the High-end where the contribution from Antarctica dominates. Similarly, the uncertainty in projected sea-level is dominated by an uncertain Antarctic fate. We also explore the effect upon projections of, treating CMIP5 model ensembles as normally distributed when they might not be, correcting CMIP5 model output for internal variability using different polynomials and using different unloading patterns of ice for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

  7. Projections of NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in China to 2030 under six mitigation scenarios.

    PubMed

    Xu, Peng; Koloutsou-Vakakis, Sotiria; Rood, Mark J; Luan, Shengji

    2017-12-31

    China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH3) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH3 emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH3 emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1km×1km gridded NH3 emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH3 emissions. The total NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3TgNH3·yr(-1) (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6TgNH3·yr(-1)), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH3 emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3Tg·yr(-1) increasing on average 4.4%·yr(-1). Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH3 emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9TgNH3·yr(-1) (11.5-16.3TgNH3·yr(-1)). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9-37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH3 emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH3 emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for India—a preventive tool for disaster mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parvez, Imtiyaz A.; Magrin, Andrea; Vaccari, Franco; Ashish; Mir, Ramees R.; Peresan, Antonella; Panza, Giuliano Francesco

    2017-08-01

    Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic wave generation and propagation processes allow for reliable numerical and analytical models of waveform generation and propagation. From the simulation of ground motion, it is easy to extract the desired earthquake hazard parameters. Accordingly, a scenario-based approach to seismic hazard assessment has been developed, namely the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA), which allows for a wide range of possible seismic sources to be used in the definition of reliable scenarios by means of realistic waveforms modelling. Such reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected earthquake ground motion is essential to improve building codes, particularly for the protection of critical infrastructures and for land use planning. Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489-508, 2003) published the first ever neo-deterministic seismic hazard map of India by computing synthetic seismograms with input data set consisting of structural models, seismogenic zones, focal mechanisms and earthquake catalogues. As described in Panza et al. (Adv Geophys 53:93-165, 2012), the NDSHA methodology evolved with respect to the original formulation used by Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489-508, 2003): the computer codes were improved to better fit the need of producing realistic ground shaking maps and ground shaking scenarios, at different scale levels, exploiting the most significant pertinent progresses in data acquisition and modelling. Accordingly, the present study supplies a revised NDSHA map for India. The seismic hazard, expressed in terms of maximum displacement (Dmax), maximum velocity (Vmax) and design ground acceleration (DGA), has been extracted from the synthetic signals and mapped on a regular grid over the studied territory.

  9. Enduse Global Emissions Mitigation Scenarios (EGEMS): A New Generation of Energy Efficiency Policy Planning Models

    SciTech Connect

    McNeil, Michael A.; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; McMahon, James E.

    2009-05-29

    This paper presents efforts to date and prospective goals towards development of a modelling and analysis framework which is comprehensive enough to address the global climate crisis, and detailed enough to provide policymakers with concrete targets and achievable outcomes. In terms of energy efficiency policy, this requires coverage of the entire world, with emphasis on countries and regions with large and/or rapidly growing energy-related emissions, and analysis at the 'technology' level-building end use, transport mode or industrial process. These elements have not been fully addressed by existing modelling efforts, which usually take either a top-down approach, or concentrate on a few fully industrialized countries where energy demand is well-understood. Inclusion of details such as appliance ownership rates, use patterns and efficiency levels throughout the world allows for a deeper understanding of the demand for energy today and, more importantly, over the coming decades. This is a necessary next step for energy analysts and policy makers in assessment of mitigation potentials. The modelling system developed at LBNL over the past 3 years takes advantage of experience in end use demand and in forecasting markets for energy-consuming equipment, in combination with known technology-based efficiency opportunities and policy types. A particular emphasis has been placed on modelling energy growth in developing countries. Experiences to date include analyses covering individual countries (China and India), end uses (refrigerators and air conditioners) and policy types (standards and labelling). Each of these studies required a particular effort in data collection and model refinement--they share, however, a consistent approach and framework which allows comparison, and forms the foundation of a comprehensive analysis system leading to a roadmap to address the greenhouse gas mitigation targetslikely to be set in the coming years.

  10. Relevance of future snowfall level height in the Peruvian Andes for glacier loss in the 21st century under different emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schauwecker, Simone; Kronenberg, Marlene; Rohrer, Mario; Huggel, Christian; Endries, Jason; Montoya, Nilton; Neukom, Raphael; Perry, Baker; Salzmann, Nadine; Schwarb, Manfred; Suarez, Wilson

    2017-04-01

    In many regions of Peru, the competition for limited hydrological resources already represents a large risk for conflicts. In this context, and within the circumstances of climate change, there is a great interest in estimating the future loss of Peruvian glaciers. Solid precipitation on glaciers, which affects the shortwave radiation budget via its effects on albedo, in general reduces ablation. For that reason, the height of the upper level of the transition zone between liquid and solid precipitation (snowfall level height) is considered to play a critical role. This snowfall level height is linked to air temperature. The observed and projected warming of the atmosphere is therefore affecting the glaciers amongst others by changing the snowfall level height. Despite the potential significance of these changes for Peruvian glaciers, the relations between snowfall level heights, glacier extents and climate scenarios have been poorly investigated so far. In our study, we first analyse the snowfall level heights over the Peruvian Cordilleras. Second, we investigate the relationship between the present snowfall level heights and current glacier extents. As a third step, we derive projected changes of snowfall level heights from GCMs for the RCP2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios and use them to roughly estimate the end of XXI century glaciation for the Peruvian Cordilleras. Our results indicate a large difference in future glacier extent between the high-emission (pessimistic) RCP8.5 and the low-emission (optimistic) RCP2.6. If global emissions can be substantially reduced, a significant part of the glaciated area of Peru can be maintained. On the contrary, if mitigation is unsuccessful, most of the glacier mass in Peru will be lost during the 21st century. In both cases, but even more so for the high-emission scenario, adaptation will play a critical role and should focus on improvements in water resource management which is essential on a local to regional scale. Air

  11. On the use of Local Sea Level Scenarios for Managing and Mitigating the Impact of Coastal Inundation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plag, H.; Hammond, W. C.

    2007-12-01

    Coastal inundation is increasingly recognized at national and international levels as an issue with potentially extreme societal impact. Consequently, there is an urgent need for decision-support tools that would help to manage and mitigate the impacts of coastal inundation, storm surges, and human activities on coastal communities and ecosystems. Decision making with respect to mitigation in the coastal zone is an extremely complicated issue for various reasons, including but not limited to: (i) The time scales involved are long from a human perspective, with coastal engineering typically dealing with infrastructure with a life time of 50 to 200 years. (ii) The economic scale of the problem is extreme: For example, the costs for increasing the height of the coastal dikes in Germany by 1 m are estimated to be of the order of 300 billion Euro; the flood gates being built in Venice are an estimated 5 billion Euro. The scale of the required investments is often seen as prohibitive for precautionary action without solid scientific basis, and failing to invest where needed may lead to large economic losses as demonstrated in New Orleans. (iii) Coastal zones are a magnet for human activities (one could say that society tends to put its "jewelry" in the coastal zone): the main increase in vulnerability in the coastal zone is not expected to come from increased hazards due to climate change but rather from increased risks due to continuing migration of population into the coastal zone and an associated increase in key infrastructure. Decisions on mitigation and adaptation in the coastal zone are likely to affect the life and prosperity of people in the future. Reliable and precise predictions of coastal inundation risks, for example through local sea level rise, would be invaluable for decision support. However, considering the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the processes that contribute to the hazards and risks in coastal zones over the 50 to 100 year time scale

  12. Identifying and Mitigating Potential Nutrient and Sediment Hot Spots under a Future Scenario in the Missouri River Basin

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, May; Zhang, Zhonglong

    2015-09-01

    Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for large-scale watershed modeling could be useful for evaluating the quality of the water in regions that are dominated by nonpoint sources in order to identify potential “hot spots” for which mitigating strategies could be further developed. An analysis of water quality under future scenarios in which changes in land use would be made to accommodate increased biofuel production was developed for the Missouri River Basin (MoRB) based on a SWAT model application. The analysis covered major agricultural crops and biofuel feedstock in the MoRB, including pasture land, hay, corn, soybeans, wheat, and switchgrass. The analysis examined, at multiple temporal and spatial scales, how nitrate, organic nitrogen, and total nitrogen; phosphorus, organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus, and total phosphorus; suspended sediments; and water flow (water yield) would respond to the shifts in land use that would occur under proposed future scenarios. The analysis was conducted at three geospatial scales: (1) large tributary basin scale (two: Upper MoRB and Lower MoRB); (2) regional watershed scale (seven: Upper Missouri River, Middle Missouri River, Middle Lower Missouri River, Lower Missouri River, Yellowstone River, Platte River, and Kansas River); and (3) eight-digit hydrologic unit (HUC-8) subbasin scale (307 subbasins). Results showed that subbasin-level variations were substantial. Nitrogen loadings decreased across the entire Upper MoRB, and they increased in several subbasins in the Lower MoRB. Most nitrate reductions occurred in lateral flow. Also at the subbasin level, phosphorus in organic, sediment, and soluble forms was reduced by 35%, 45%, and 65%, respectively. Suspended sediments increased in 68% of the subbasins. The water yield decreased in 62% of the subbasins. In the Kansas River watershed, the water quality improved significantly with regard to every nitrogen and phosphorus compound. The improvement was

  13. Global-warming mitigation potential of three tree-plantation scenarios. Final report, September 1989-June 1990

    SciTech Connect

    Peer, R.L.; Campbell, D.L.; Hohenstein, W.G.

    1991-02-01

    The report gives results of an analysis of three alternative uses of forests in the U.S. to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) concentrations: (1) planting trees with no harvesting, (2) traditional forestry, and (3) short-rotation intensive culture of trees for biomass. Increasing concentrations of CO{sub 2} and other radiatively important trace gases (RITGs) are of concern due to their potential to alter the Earth's climate. Some scientists, after reviewing the results of general circulation models, predict rising average temperatures and alterations in the Earth's hydrologic cycle. While the debate continues over the actual magnitude of global warming, most scientists agree that some change will occur over the next century. This places a burden on policymakers to address global warming and to develop mitigation measures. Since forests provide a sink for carbon by fixing CO{sub 2} to produce biomass, halting deforestation and creating new forests have been proposed as ways to slow the buildup of carbon in the Earth's atmosphere.

  14. Twenty-First Century Police Training: Recruits' Problem-Solving Skills Following Scenario-Based Training

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perry, Lee R.

    2012-01-01

    In response to the diverse requirements of 21st-century police work and the increasing emphasis on community-policing philosophy, the Los Angeles Police Department has implemented changes within its academy curricula and methods of instruction, including the use of adult-learning concepts, a community policing problem-solving model known as…

  15. Twenty-First Century Police Training: Recruits' Problem-Solving Skills Following Scenario-Based Training

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perry, Lee R.

    2012-01-01

    In response to the diverse requirements of 21st-century police work and the increasing emphasis on community-policing philosophy, the Los Angeles Police Department has implemented changes within its academy curricula and methods of instruction, including the use of adult-learning concepts, a community policing problem-solving model known as…

  16. Mitigation scenario analysis: modelling the impacts of changes in agricultural management practices on surface water quality at the catchment scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, Sam; He, Yi; Hiscock, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    ) within the program SWAT-CUP (SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs). Model performance is assessed against a variety of statistical measures including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) and percentage bias (PBIAS). Various mitigation scenarios are modelled within the catchment, including changes in fertiliser application rates and timing and the introduction of different tillage techniques and cover-crop regimes. The effects of the applied measures on water quality are examined and recommendations made on which measures have the greatest potential to be applied within the catchment to improve water quality. This study reports the findings of that analysis and presents techniques by which diffuse agricultural pollution can be reduced within catchments through the implementation of multiple on-farm measures. The methodology presented has the potential to be applied within other catchments, allowing tailored mitigation strategies to be developed. Ultimately, this research provides 'tested' mitigation options that can be applied within the Wensum and similar catchments to improve water quality and to ensure that certain obligatory water quality standards are achieved.

  17. Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobin, Isabelle; Jerez, Sonia; Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; van Meijgaard, Erik; Prein, Andreas; Déqué, Michel; Kotlarski, Sven; Fox Maule, Cathrine; Nikulin, Grigory; Noël, Thomas; Teichmann, Claas

    2016-03-01

    Wind energy resource is subject to changes in climate. To investigate the impacts of climate change on future European wind power generation potential, we analyze a multi-model ensemble of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12 km grid resolution. We developed a mid-century wind power plant scenario to focus the impact assessment on relevant locations for future wind power industry. We found that, under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, changes in the annual energy yield of the future European wind farms fleet as a whole will remain within ±5% across the 21st century. At country to local scales, wind farm yields will undergo changes up to 15% in magnitude, according to the large majority of models, but smaller than 5% in magnitude for most regions and models. The southern fleets such as the Iberian and Italian fleets are likely to be the most affected. With regard to variability, changes are essentially small or poorly significant from subdaily to interannual time scales.

  18. Japan's Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 - Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation

    SciTech Connect

    Komiyama, Ryoichi; Marnay, Chris; Stadler, Michael; Lai, Judy; Borgeson, Sam; Coffey, Brian; Azevedo, Ines Lima

    2009-09-01

    In this analysis, the authors projected Japan's energy demand/supply and energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions to 2050. Their analysis of various scenarios indicated that Japan's CO{sub 2} emissions in 2050 could be potentially reduced by 26-58% from the current level (FY 2005). These results suggest that Japan could set a CO{sub 2} emission reduction target for 2050 at between 30% and 60%. In order to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050 from the present level, Japan will have to strongly promote energy conservation at the same pace as an annual rate of 1.9% after the oil crises (to cut primary energy demand per GDP (TPES/GDP) in 2050 by 60% from 2005) and expand the share of non-fossil energy sources in total primary energy supply in 2050 to 50% (to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per primary energy demand (CO{sub 2}/TPES) in 2050 by 40% from 2005). Concerning power generation mix in 2050, nuclear power will account for 60%, solar and other renewable energy sources for 20%, hydro power for 10% and fossil-fired generation for 10%, indicating substantial shift away from fossil fuel in electric power supply. Among the mitigation measures in the case of reducing CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050, energy conservation will make the greatest contribution to the emission reduction, being followed by solar power, nuclear power and other renewable energy sources. In order to realize this massive CO{sub 2} abatement, however, Japan will have to overcome technological and economic challenges including the large-scale deployment of nuclear power and renewable technologies.

  19. Mid-Century Ensemble Regional Climate Change Scenarios for the Western United States

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, Lai R.; Qian, Yun; Bian, Xindi; Washington, Warren M.; Han, Jongil; Roads, John O.

    2004-01-01

    To study the impacts of climate change on water resources in the western U.S., global climate simulations were produced using the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Department of Energy (NCAR/DOE) Parallel Climate Model (PCM). The Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) was used to downscale the PCM control (1995-2015) and three future (2040-2060) climate simulations to yield ensemble regional climate simulations at 40 km spatial resolution for the western U.S. This paper focuses on analyses of regional simulations in the Columbia River and Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basins. Results based on the regional simulations show that by mid-century, the average regional warming of 1-2.5oC strongly affects snowpack in the western U.S. Along coastal mountains, reduction in annual snowpack is about 70%. Besides changes in mean temperature, precipitation, and snowpack, cold season extreme daily precipitation is found to increase by 5 to 15 mm/day (15-20%) along the Cascades and the Sierra. The warming results in increased rainfall over snowfall and reduced snow accumulation (or earlier snowmelt) during the cold season. In the Columbia River Basin, these changes are accompanied by more frequent rain-on-snow events. Overall, they induce higher likelihood of wintertime flooding and reduced runoff and soil moisture in the summer. Such changes could have serious impacts on water resources and agriculture in the western U.S. Changes in surface water and energy budgets in the Columbia River and Sacramento-San Joaquin basins are driven mainly by changes in surface temperature, which are statistically significant at the 0.95 confidence level. Changes in precipitation, however, are spatially incoherent and not statistically significant except for the drying trend during summer.

  20. Scenarios of atmospheric rivers affecting Western Europe during the XXI Century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trigo, Ricardo M.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Tomé, Ricardo; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2017-04-01

    Extreme precipitation events in Europe during the winter half of the year have major socio-economic impacts associated with floods, landslides, extensive property damage and life losses. In recent years, a number of works have shed new light on the role played by Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) in the occurrence of extreme precipitation events in Europe as was the case in major historical floods in Duero (Pereira et al., 2016) and Tagus (Trigo et al., 2015) rivers in Iberia. We analyse ARs reaching Europe, for the extended winter months (October to March), in simulations from six CMIP5 global climate models (CGMs) to quantify possible changes during the current century, with emphasis in five western European prone coastal areas. ARs are represented reasonably well in GCMs for recent climate conditions (1980-2005). Increased vertically integrated horizontal water transport is found for 2074- 2099 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) compared to 1980-2005, while the number of ARs is projected to double on average for the same period. These changes are robust between models and are associated with higher air temperatures and thus enhanced atmospheric moisture content, together with higher precipitation associated with extra-tropical cyclones. This suggests an increased risk of intense precipitation and floods along the Atlantic European Coasts from the Iberian Peninsula to Scandinavia (Ramos et al., 2016). References: Pereira et al., (2016) Spatial impact and triggering conditions of the exceptional hydro-geomorphological event of December 1909 in Iberia, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 371-390. Ramos et al., (2016) Projected changes in atmospheric rivers affecting Europe in CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9315-9323. Trigo et al., (2015) The record precipitation and flood event in Iberia in December 1876: description and synoptic analysis, Front. Earth Sci. 2:3. Acknowledgements This work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces

  1. Northward expansion and rainfall seasonality amplification of the mediterranean climate zones projected in 21st century scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alessandri, Andrea; Cherchi, Annalisa; De Felice, Matteo; Mariotti, Annarita; Pan, Yutong; Zeng, Ning

    2013-04-01

    The Mediterranean climate is a major climate type of the Köppen classification that is characterized by hot, dry summers and cool, wet winters and located between about 30° and 45° latitude on the western sides of the continents (Koppen, 1900; Lionello 2012). By applying the latest development of the Koppen-Geiger classification scheme, we assessed the projected change of Mediterranean climate areas in the 21st century under the RCP4.5 stabilization scenario. The capability of the CMIP5 models in reproducing realistic Mediterranean climate regions is firstly assessed globally for the historical period (1980-2005). The projected multi-model change in the 21st century with respect to the historical period is then evaluated with particular focus on the Euro-Mediterranean region. In the northern hemisphere over both the Euro-Mediterranean and the Western-US regions, the Mediterranean climate zones expand considerably during the 21st century. In particular, over Europe, the expansion is accompanied by a northward shift of the Mediterranean climate in countries like UK, France, even Scandinavia, while its southern margins being replaced by the arid climate types. This behavior characterizes some part of southern Italy, southern Greece and Middle East, where the annual mean precipitation decreases below the threshold that characterizes arid climates. In the Euro-Mediterranean sector, the poleward expansion of the Mediterranean-type climate zone is related to the amplification of the rainfall seasonal cycle. In fact, the difference between winter and summer precipitation increases to fulfill the Mediterranean climate seasonality in more regions towards the north. By applying a vertically-integrated moisture budget analysis we show that the amplification of rainfall seasonality is primarily related to the "direct moisture effect" (i.e. the increase of moisture transport by assuming no change in atmospheric circulation), thus consistent with a "poor-get-poorer" mechanism

  2. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in ISEEM Global Energy Model: 2010-2050 Scenario Analysis for Least-Cost Carbon Reduction in Iron and Steel Sector

    SciTech Connect

    Karali, Nihan; Xu, Tengfang; Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-12-01

    The goal of the modeling work carried out in this project was to quantify long-term scenarios for the future emission reduction potentials in the iron and steel sector. The main focus of the project is to examine the impacts of carbon reduction options in the U.S. iron and steel sector under a set of selected scenarios. In order to advance the understanding of carbon emission reduction potential on the national and global scales, and to evaluate the regional impacts of potential U.S. mitigation strategies (e.g., commodity and carbon trading), we also included and examined the carbon reduction scenarios in China’s and India’s iron and steel sectors in this project. For this purpose, a new bottom-up energy modeling framework, the Industrial Sector Energy Efficiency Modeling (ISEEM), (Karali et al. 2012) was used to provide detailed annual projections starting from 2010 through 2050. We used the ISEEM modeling framework to carry out detailed analysis, on a country-by-country basis, for the U.S., China’s, and India’s iron and steel sectors. The ISEEM model applicable to iron and steel section, called ISEEM-IS, is developed to estimate and evaluate carbon emissions scenarios under several alternative mitigation options - including policies (e.g., carbon caps), commodity trading, and carbon trading. The projections will help us to better understand emission reduction potentials with technological and economic implications. The database for input of ISEEM-IS model consists of data and information compiled from various resources such as World Steel Association (WSA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China Steel Year Books, India Bureau of Mines (IBM), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and recent LBNL studies on bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy efficiency measures in the iron and steel sector of the U.S., China, and India, including long-term steel production in China. In the ISEEM-IS model, production technology and manufacturing details are

  3. Regional projections of glacier volume and runoff in response to twenty-first century climate scenarios (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Radic, V.; Bliss, A. K.; Hock, R.

    2013-12-01

    Changes in mass contained by mountain glaciers and ice caps can modify the Earth's hydrological cycle on multiple scales. On a global scale, the mass loss from glaciers contributes to sea level rise. On regional and local scales, glacier melt-water is an important contributor to and modulator of river flow. In this study we use an elevation-dependent glacier mass balance model to project annual volume changes and monthly runoff from all mountain glaciers and ice caps in the world (excluding those in the Antarctic periphery) for the 21st century forced by temperature and precipitation scenarios from 14 global climate models. The largest contributors to projected total volume loss are the glaciers in the Canadian and Russian Arctic, Alaska and glaciers peripheral to Greenland ice sheet. Although small contributors to global volume loss, glaciers in Central Europe, low-latitude South America, Caucasus, North Asia, and Western Canada and US are projected to lose more than 75% of their volume by 2100. The magnitude and sign of trends in annual runoff totals differ considerably among regions depending on the balance between enhanced melt and the reduction of the glacier reservoir by glacier retreat and shrinkage. Most regions show strong declines in glacier runoff indicating that the effect of glacier shrinkage is more dominant than increased melting rates. Some high-latitude regions (Arctic Canada North, Russian Arctic and Greenland) exhibit increases in runoff totals. Iceland and Svalbard show an increase in runoff followed by a multi-decadal decrease in annual runoff.

  4. Effects of rippled fields due to ferritic inserts and ELM mitigation coils on energetic ion losses in a 15 MA inductive scenario in ITER

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shinohara, K.; Tani, K.; Oikawa, T.; Putvinski, S.; Schaffer, M.; Loarte, A.

    2012-09-01

    The energetic ion loss has been assessed using the F3D-OFMC code for a 15 MA inductive scenario with Q = 10 and the latest information on the first wall geometry, the implementation of ferritic inserts (FI) and the ELM mitigation/control coils. Alpha particles and NB ions generated by the neutral beam injectors with the injection energy of 1 MeV are well confined and the heat load on the first wall is negligibly small and allowable for the magnetic background by the toroidal field coils and FI. However, an increase in the loss of these energetic ions is observed when the magnetic field by the ELM coils is applied. The increase in the loss fraction is larger for NB ions than for alpha particles under the ELM coil field. The origin of the expelled NB ions is dominantly trapped ions generated in the peripheral region due to a high-density plasma of the 15 MA scenario.

  5. Changing Water and Nitrogen Use Efficiency over Agricultural Lands of the Inland Pacific Northwest During the 21th Century: Implications for Adaptation and Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, M.; Malek, K.; Adam, J. C.; Stockle, C. O.; Rajagopalan, K.; Nelson, R.

    2014-12-01

    As water is the primary resource limitation for cropping systems over the inland Pacific Northwest (PNW), water use efficiency impacts regional water availability, crop yields, and net carbon sequestration. Furthermore, nitrogen (N) use efficiency affects the cost of farming and the total N flux to the environment (including leaching to aquatic ecosystems and greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere). Climate change affects water and nitrogen use efficiencies due to the combined effects of warming (reducing snowpack water storage, increasing ET, earlier leaf-on, shortening or lengthening plant growth season, etc.), the CO2 fertilization effects (increasing net primary productivity and leaf-level water and energy use efficiencies for C3 crops), and extreme climate events (drought and flood). Cropland conservation management (rotation, tillage, irrigation, and fertilization) is widely practiced in this region for maintaining high productivity of agricultural lands. To reduce vulnerability to weather extremes and long-term climate change, management regimes will likely need to be adapted for a changing environment. Here, we applied the coupled macro-scale hydrologic and crop growth model (VIC-CropSyst) to study how climate change in the 21st century will change water and nitrogen use efficiencies over the PNW. Simulation experiments with different combinations of management options and climate scenarios are used for attributing effects of climate factors and management options on long-term trends and fluctuations on water and nitrogen use efficiency. Preliminary simulation results indicate that there is a trend of decreasing water and nitrogen use efficiency over the inner PNW domain during the 21th century because of increasing ET, a seasonal shift in water availability, and the intensification of extreme climate events. Effective managements, including no-tillage and conservational tillage and optimized irrigation can eliminate the decrease or even increase water

  6. Scenarios for future biodiversity loss due to multiple drivers reveal conflict between mitigating climate change and preserving biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Powell, Thomas W. R.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2013-06-01

    We assess the potential for future biodiversity loss due to three interacting factors: energy withdrawal from ecosystems due to biomass harvest, habitat loss due to land-use change, and climate change. We develop four scenarios to 2050 with different combinations of high or low agricultural efficiency and high or low meat diets, and use species-energy and species-area relationships to estimate their effects on biodiversity. In our scenarios, natural ecosystems are protected except when additional land is necessary to fulfil the increasing dietary demands of the global population. Biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is used as a means of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere (and offsetting fossil fuel emissions). BECCS is based on waste biomass, with the addition of bio-energy crops only when already managed land is no longer needed for food production. Forecast biodiversity loss from natural biomes increases by more than a factor of five in going from high to low agricultural efficiency scenarios, due to destruction of productive habitats by the expansion of pasture. Biodiversity loss from energy withdrawal on managed land varies by a factor of two across the scenarios. Biodiversity loss due to climate change varies only modestly across the scenarios. Climate change is lowest in the ‘low meat high efficiency’ scenario, in which by 2050 around 660 million hectares of pasture are converted to biomass plantation that is used for BECCS. However, the resulting withdrawal of energy from managed ecosystems has a large negative impact on biodiversity. Although the effects of energy withdrawal and climate change on biodiversity cannot be directly compared, this suggests that using bio-energy to tackle climate change in order to limit biodiversity loss could instead have the opposite effect.

  7. Tsunami mitigation and preparedness activities in California: Chapter L in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilson, Rick; Miller, Kevin H.

    2013-01-01

    scenario-specific, tsunami evacuation “playbook” maps and guidance in-harbor hazard maps and offshore safety zones for potential boat evacuation during future distant source events; “probability-based” products for land-use planning under the California Seismic Hazard Mapping Act; and an expansion of real-time and post-tsunami field reconnaissance teams and information sharing through a state-wide clearinghouse. The state tsunami program has benefitted greatly from participation in the SAFRR tsunami scenario process, and hopes to continue this relationship with the U.S. Geological Survey to help improve tsunami preparedness in California.

  8. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Treesearch

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  9. The 21st century climate of the Alps: What can we learn from the latest generation of regional climate scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotlarski, Sven; Gobiet, Andreas; Frei, Prisco; Rajczak, Jan; Liniger, Mark A.

    2017-04-01

    The European Alps are a hot spot of climate change and related impacts. Due to their physiographic complexity and their location between distinct climatic zones, climate change and climate impact assessments in this region are challenging and often associated with substantial uncertainties. In particular, previous studies have highlighted the added value of high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) to capture fine scale spatio-temporal Alpine climate variability and to assess climate change impacts for high elevation regions. We here exploit state-of-the-art regional climate scenarios available through the CORDEX initiative to assess 21st century climate change over the European Alps. The analyzed model ensemble consists of both high (12 km) and low resolution (50 km) experiments carried out by multiple RCMs which are, in turn, driven by multiple global climate models. Obvious RCM deficiencies in the Alpine area are identified. For instance, several RCMs tend to constantly accumulate snow cover at some isolated grid cells resulting in a distortion of the temperature change signal. Our analysis considers two different emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Besides seasonal mean changes in temperature and precipitation we particularly focus on changes in precipitation and temperature extremes as well as changes in parameters related to snow cover and snowfall. A dedicated spatial analysis combined with the assessment of elevation dependencies of climate change signals identifies regional hot spots of change. Robust and reliable aspects of projected climate change in the Alps are highlighted, and more uncertain but nevertheless important possible further changes are discussed in addition. The results largely confirm the findings of previous studies based on the ENSEMBLES experiments, but also yield a number of new insights. The projected increase of winter precipitation, for instance, appears to be stronger and more robust than previously known while potential

  10. Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation.

    PubMed

    Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

    2016-01-01

    West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such

  11. Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

    2016-01-01

    West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such

  12. Study of the impact of cruise and passenger ships on a Mediterranean port city air quality - Study of future emission mitigation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liora, Natalia; Poupkou, Anastasia; Kontos, Serafim; Giannaros, Christos; Melas, Dimitrios

    2015-04-01

    An increase of the passenger ships traffic is expected in the Mediterranean Sea as targeted by the EU Blue Growth initiative. This increase is expected to impact the Mediterranean port-cities air quality considering not only the conventional atmospheric pollutants but also the toxic ones that are emitted by the ships (e.g. Nickel). The aim of this study is the estimation of the present and future time pollutant emissions from cruise and passenger maritime transport in the port area of Thessaloniki (Greece) as well as the impact of those emissions on the city air quality. Cruise and passenger ship emissions have been estimated for the year 2013 over a 100m spatial resolution grid which covers the greater port area of Thessaloniki. Emissions have been estimated for the following macro-pollutants; NOx, SO2, NMVOC, CO, CO2 and particulate matter (PM). In addition, the most important micro-pollutants studied in this work are As, Cd, Pb, Ni and Benzo(a)pyrene for which air quality limits have been set by the EU. Emissions have been estimated for three operation modes; cruising, maneuvering and hotelling. For the calculation of the present time maritime emissions, the activity data used were provided by the Thessaloniki Port Authority S.A. Moreover, future pollutant emissions are estimated using the future activity data provided by the Port Authority and the IMO legislation for shipping in the future. In addition, two mitigation emission scenarios are examined; the use of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as a fuel used by ships and the implementation of cold ironing which is the electrification of ships during hotelling mode leading to the elimination of the corresponding emissions. The impact of the present and future passenger ship emissions on the air quality of Thessaloniki is examined with the use of the model CALPUFF applied over the 100m spatial resolution grid using the meteorology of WRF. Simulations of the modeling system are performed for four different emission

  13. Changes in atmospheric blocking characteristics within Euro-Atlantic region and Northern Hemisphere as a whole in the 21st century from model simulations using RCP anthropogenic scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mokhov, Igor I.; Timazhev, Alexander V.; Lupo, Anthony R.

    2014-11-01

    An analysis of simulations using the IPSL-CM5 climate model of general circulation shows the ability of this model to reproduce the current climate of the main blocking characteristics obtained from reanalysis data, including number of blocking events and their duration, intensity and frequency. Possible changes of blocking characteristics in the Euro-Atlantic region (EA) and for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as a whole are estimated from model simulations with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the 21st century. Results of the model simulations show a general increase in the blocking frequency for the EA in winter, summer and for the entire year during the 21st century for both analyzed RCP scenarios, while changes of the opposite sign are characteristic for NH as a whole. It is also noted that there is a tendency for an increase in the blocking intensity in the EA during the winter from model simulations with both analyzed RCP scenarios for the 21st century. A significant increase is obtained in the EA for the likelihood of extreme winter with the total blocking duration longer than seven weeks. Also, a similar tendency is characteristic for the EA summer.

  14. Modelling nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes from land to the UK river network - Scenario Analysis and possible mitigation measures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vinjili, Shailaja; Hiscock, Kevin; Lovett, Andrew

    2014-05-01

    Nutrient export models, based on land use and land management data, support the analysis of the cause and effect of land use changes and aid in identifying significant nutrient sources. Although various simple approaches such as export coefficient modelling have been used for national scale and regional-scale studies, many of them lack inclusion of process-based elements to the model. In this study, we present a model that describes the river nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) load as a function of nutrient sources, runoff, nutrient retention and hydrogeology. The model was calibrated using measured water quality data on N and P at catchment outlets and was applied to a 2-km resolution dataset established for England, Wales & Scotland. A 2-km resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was developed using the grid and a flow accumulation algorithm in ESRI's ArcGIS. We combine nutrient loads from each 2-km cell with the flow accumulation model to identify the spatial distribution of critical nutrient sources to river water. Subsequently, the model was used to analyse different land management and climate change scenarios. The results of this study and scenario analysis seek to identify potential nutrient sensitive areas and support land use planning and policy decisions.

  15. Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

    PubMed

    Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

    2015-08-01

    Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by

  16. Application of an extreme winter storm scenario to identify vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Albano, Christine M.; Dettinger, Michael; McCarthy, Maureen; Schaller, Kevin D.; Wellborn, Toby; Cox, Dale A.

    2016-01-01

    In the Sierra Nevada mountains (USA), and geographically similar areas across the globe where human development is expanding, extreme winter storm and flood risks are expected to increase with changing climate, heightening the need for communities to assess risks and better prepare for such events. In this case study, we demonstrate a novel approach to examining extreme winter storm and flood risks. We incorporated high-resolution atmospheric–hydrologic modeling of the ARkStorm extreme winter storm scenario with multiple modes of engagement with practitioners, including a series of facilitated discussions and a tabletop emergency management exercise, to develop a regional assessment of extreme storm vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the greater Lake Tahoe region of Northern Nevada and California, USA. Through this process, practitioners discussed issues of concern across all phases of the emergency management life cycle, including preparation, response, recovery, and mitigation. Interruption of transportation, communications, and interagency coordination were among the most pressing concerns, and specific approaches for addressing these issues were identified, including prepositioning resources, diversifying communications systems, and improving coordination among state, tribal, and public utility practitioners. Science needs included expanding real-time monitoring capabilities to improve the precision of meteorological models and enhance situational awareness, assessing vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure, and conducting cost–benefit analyses to assess opportunities to improve both natural and human-made infrastructure to better withstand extreme storms. Our approach and results can be used to support both land use and emergency planning activities aimed toward increasing community resilience to extreme winter storm hazards in mountainous regions.

  17. Air quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

    2014-07-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10-year control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present-day levels over Paris is modeled under the "business-as-usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic "mitigation" scenario leads to a moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional-scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current urban-scale study is driven by volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional-scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas, projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer timescale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios, respectively, compared to the present-day period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the

  18. Air-quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from regional to local scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

    2014-01-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. High-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10 yr control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present time levels over Paris is modeled under the "business as usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic mitigation scenario leads to moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current, urban scale study, is driven by VOC-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer time-scale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under "business as usual" and "mitigation" scenarios respectively compared to present time period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the smoothing of the large urban increment

  19. Projected changes of soil organic carbon in agricultural soils of southeast Germany in the 21th century under different carbon input scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiesmeier, Martin; Poeplau, Christopher; Sierra, Carlos; Maier, Harald; Hübner, Rico; Kühnel, Anna; Spörlein, Peter; Geuß, Uwe; Hangen, Edzard; Schilling, Bernd; von Lützow, Margit; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid

    2016-04-01

    As climate change may have a distinct effect on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, projections of the future SOC development on larger spatial scales on the basis of soil carbon models are needed. In this study we simulated the SOC development in cropland and grassland soils of Bavaria (southeast Germany) between 2000 and 2095 using the RothC model. At 51 sampling locations detailed model input data as C pools derived by soil fractionation, C input, clay content and climate variables were determined to run the model. Projections for each sampling location were performed on the basis of an average climate scenario (A1B) and three C input scenarios as a realistic range of possible crop yield developments: stagnation of the C input (1) increase by 20% (2) and decrease by 20% (3). The results showed a general decline of SOC stocks of 12% during the 21th century under C input scenario 1 and a decrease of 21% under scenario 3. Remarkably, even the optimistic scenario 2 resulted in a noticeable decline of SOC stocks by 5%. Our study indicated that C inputs in agricultural soils of Bavaria have to increase by 30% until 2095 (given the A1B climate scenario) in order to maintain present SOC stocks. However, projected SOC changes largely depended on the soil unit and regional site characteristics. The modeling approach provides the basis for a further evaluation of changes of the land use management and enables a site-specific delineation of measures for a sustainable supply of soil organic matter under climate change.

  20. Drivers of the tropospheric ozone budget throughout the 21st century under the medium-high climate scenario RCP 6.0

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Revell, L. E.; Tummon, F.; Stenke, A.; Sukhodolov, T.; Coulon, A.; Rozanov, E.; Garny, H.; Grewe, V.; Peter, T.

    2015-05-01

    Because tropospheric ozone is both a greenhouse gas and harmful air pollutant, it is important to understand how anthropogenic activities may influence its abundance and distribution through the 21st century. Here, we present model simulations performed with the chemistry-climate model SOCOL, in which spatially disaggregated chemistry and transport tracers have been implemented in order to better understand the distribution and projected changes in tropospheric ozone. We examine the influences of ozone precursor emissions (nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs)), climate change (including methane effects) and stratospheric ozone recovery on the tropospheric ozone budget, in a simulation following the climate scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 (a medium-high, and reasonably realistic climate scenario). Changes in ozone precursor emissions have the largest effect, leading to a global-mean increase in tropospheric ozone which maximizes in the early 21st century at 23% compared to 1960. The increase is most pronounced at northern midlatitudes, due to regional emission patterns: between 1990 and 2060, northern midlatitude tropospheric ozone remains at constantly large abundances: 31% larger than in 1960. Over this 70-year period, attempts to reduce emissions in Europe and North America do not have an effect on zonally averaged northern midlatitude ozone because of increasing emissions from Asia, together with the long lifetime of ozone in the troposphere. A simulation with fixed anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions of NOx, CO and non-methane VOCs at 1960 conditions shows a 6% increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone by the end of the 21st century, with an 11 % increase at northern midlatitudes. This increase maximizes in the 2080s and is mostly caused by methane, which maximizes in the 2080s following RCP 6.0, and plays an important role in controlling ozone directly, and indirectly through its

  1. Mass losses from Svalbard land-terminating glaciers by the end of the 21st century under an RCP 8.5 scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Möller, Marco; Navarro, Francisco; Martín-Español, Alba

    2016-04-01

    The high Arctic archipelagos are among the most strongly glacierized landscapes on earth apart from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Svalbard, one of these archipelagos, holds about 36,000 km2 of glaciers and ice caps and is the region that has shown the least negative mass balance of all the high Arctic regions. However, future projections suggest that the archipelago will experience an unprecedented -for the Arctic- glacier recession over the 21st century. We here present a high-resolution modelling study of the future ice-mass evolution of 29 individual land-terminating glaciers on the Svalbard archipelago under an RCP 8.5 climate forcing, a rather pessimistic scenario that unfortunately seems to be becoming realistic. Our model calculates glacier mass balance and area/volume changes using a temperature-index approach in combination with a surface elevation change parameterization. The initial glacier topographies and volumes have been assessed from extensive ground-penetrating radar measurements carried out in recent years. The calculations are performed for the 21st century and are forced by statistically downscaled output of ten different global circulation models representing the RCP scenario 8.5. By a topography-based extrapolation of the simulation results to the entire archipelago we show that a complete loss of most of Svalbard's land-terminating glaciers and even a deglaciation of certain subregions of the archipelago might occur by the end of the 21st century. 98% of the land-terminating glaciers will have retreated to less than one tenth of their initial extent by 2100, resulting in a loss of 7392±2481 km2 of ice coverage.

  2. Hotter days and droughts to continue through the 21st century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharya, Atreyee

    2012-10-01

    As heat waves become more frequent and droughts cause famines and drive up food prices, climate policies will need to account for changes in extremes in temperature and precipitation, as global mean temperatures continue to rise through the 21st century. Using HadGEM2, a new ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model, Caesar and Lowe investigated the effects of different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios on maximum and minimum air temperatures as well as on the amounts of rainfall in different parts of the world. The authors compared two scenarios through the 21st century, the first one with an aggressive mitigation scenario, in which global emissions begin to decrease in the early 21st century and reach nearly zero by 2100; the second scenario had no mitigation. The researchers' results show that extreme temperatures would scale with increasing mean temperature, at least until the middle of the 21st century: As air temperatures increase, countries across the globe would experience hotter days and an increasing number of heat waves, even with aggressive mitigation. However, mitigation may provide some amelioration, particularly through the second half of the 21st century; the northern midlatitudes would benefit most from mitigation measures, although northern South America and parts of the United States, Africa, and Asia could also avoid large increases in extreme temperature maxima by following similar mitigation policies.

  3. Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on an Ensemble of Simulations using a Business-As-Usual Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scott, J. R.; Forest, C. E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Dutkiewicz, S.

    2011-12-01

    The behavior of the climate system is examined in an ensemble of runs using an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity. Climate "parameters" varied are the climate sensitivity, the aerosol forcing, and the strength of ocean heat uptake. Variations in the latter were accomplished by changing the strength of the oceans' background vertical mixing. While climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing can be varied over rather wide ranges, it is more difficult to create such variation in heat uptake while maintaining a realistic overturning ocean circulation. Therefore, separate ensembles were carried out for a few values of the vertical diffusion coefficient. Joint probability distributions for climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing are constructed by comparing results from 20th century simulations with available observational data. These distributions are then used to generate ensembles of 21st century simulations; results allow us to construct probabilistic distributions for changes in important climate change variables such as surface air temperature, sea level rise, and magnitude of the AMOC. Changes in the rate of air-sea flux of CO2 and the export of carbon into the deep ocean are also examined.

  4. Ensembles of 21st Century Colorado River Flow Projections Exhibit Substantial Diversity in Response to Seasonal Hydroclimatic Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McAfee, S. A.; Woodhouse, C. A.; McCabe, G. J., Jr.; Pederson, G. T.

    2016-12-01

    Approximately 40 million people depend on the Colorado River, and that number is likely to grow in the future, making the River's response to projected increases in temperature and possible changes in precipitation a critical societal issue. By far the most common way of approaching the problem is synthesize results obtained by forcing a hydrological model with a set of downscaled future climate scenarios. One weakness with this type of analysis is that full hydrologic model simulations can be computationally demanding, and so the number of potential climate futures is generally somewhat limited. Here we sidestep that issue by using a very large set of synthetic climate futures to drive a simple statistical model of water year flow at Lees Ferry. 62,500 climate series, comprising 500 iterations of 125 unique combinations of summer temperature changes ranging from 0 to +4°C and summer and winter precipitation changes ranging from -20 to +20% were input into the flow model. Without substantial temperature increases, significant increases in the occurrence of very low flows (<75%) were unlikely, even with sharp decreases in temperature. Conversely, increases in precipitation, could buffer the effect of summer temperature increases up to about 3°C on mean water year flows. While very simple models like this one are inappropriate for some questions, they do provide an effective way of prioritizing and framing more complex investigations, and facilitate conversations with stakeholders about research directions.

  5. Simulation of groundwater flow and chloride transport in the “1,200-foot” sand with scenarios to mitigate saltwater migration in the “2,000-foot” sand in the Baton Rouge area, Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heywood, Charles E.; Lovelace, John K.; Griffith, Jason M.

    2015-07-16

    Seven hypothetical scenarios predict the effects of different groundwater withdrawal options on groundwater levels and the transport of chloride within the “1,200-foot” sand and the “2,000-foot” sand during 2015–2112. The predicted water levels and concentrations for all scenarios are depicted in maps for the years 2047 and 2112. The first scenario is a base case for comparison to the six other scenarios and simulates continuation of 2012 reported groundwater withdrawals through 2112 (100 years). The second scenario that simulates increased withdrawals from industrial wells in the “1,200-foot” sand predicts that water levels will be 12–25 ft lower by 2047 and that there will be a negligible difference in chloride concentrations within the “1,200-foot” sand. The five other scenarios simulate the effects of various withdrawal schemes on water levels and chloride concentrations within the “2,000-foot” sand. Amongst these five other scenarios, three of the scenarios simulate only various withdrawal reductions, whereas the two others also incorporate withdrawals from a scavenger well that is designed to extract salty water from the base of the “2,000-foot” sand. Two alternative pumping rates (2.5 Mgal/d and 1.25 Mgal/d) are simulated in each of the scavenger-well scenarios. For the “2,000-foot” sand scenarios, comparison of the predicted effects of the scenarios is facilitated by graphs of predicted chloride concentrations through time at selected observation wells, plots of salt mass in the aquifer through time, and a summary of the predicted plume area and average concentration. In all scenarios, water levels essentially equilibrate by 2047, after 30 years of simulated constant withdrawal rates. Although predicted water-level recovery within the “2,000-foot” sand is greatest for the scenario with the greatest reduction in groundwater withdrawal from that aquifer, the scavenger-well scenarios are most effective in mitigating the

  6. Future impact of non-land based traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH - an optimistic scenario and a possible mitigation strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodnebrog, Ø.; Berntsen, T. K.; Dessens, O.; Gauss, M.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Koffi, B.; Myhre, G.; Olivié, D.; Prather, M. J.; Pyle, J. A.; Stordal, F.; Szopa, S.; Tang, Q.; van Velthoven, P.; Williams, J. E.; Ødemark, K.

    2011-06-01

    The impact of future emissions from aviation and shipping on the atmospheric chemical composition has been estimated using an ensemble of six different atmospheric chemistry models. This study considers an optimistic emission scenario (B1) taking into account e.g. rapid introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies, and a mitigation option for the aircraft sector (B1 ACARE), assuming further technological improvements. Results from sensitivity simulations, where emissions from each of the transport sectors were reduced by 5 %, show that emissions from both aircraft and shipping will have a larger impact on atmospheric ozone and OH in near future (2025; B1) and for longer time horizons (2050; B1) compared to recent time (2000). However, the ozone and OH impact from aircraft can be reduced substantially in 2050 if the technological improvements considered in the B1 ACARE will be achieved. Shipping emissions have the largest impact in the marine boundary layer and their ozone contribution may exceed 4 ppb (scaled to 100 %) over the North Atlantic Ocean in the future (2050; B1) during northern summer (July). In the zonal mean, ship-induced ozone relative to the background levels may exceed 12 % near the surface. Corresponding numbers for OH are 6.0 × 105 molecules cm-3 and 30 %, respectively. This large impact on OH from shipping leads to a relative methane lifetime reduction of 3.92(±0.48) % on the global average in 2050 B1 (ensemble mean CH4 lifetime is 8.0(±1.0) yr), compared to 3.68(±0.47) % in 2000. Aircraft emissions have about 4 times higher ozone enhancement efficiency (ozone molecules enhanced relative to NOx molecules emitted) than shipping emissions, and the maximum impact is found in the UTLS region. Zonal mean aircraft-induced ozone could reach up to 5 ppb at northern mid- and high latitudes during future summer (July 2050; B1), while the relative impact peaks during northern winter (January) with a contribution of 4.2 %. Although the

  7. Future impact of non-land based traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH - an optimistic scenario and a possible mitigation strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodnebrog, Ø.; Berntsen, T. K.; Dessens, O.; Gauss, M.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Koffi, B.; Myhre, G.; Olivié, D.; Prather, M. J.; Pyle, J. A.; Stordal, F.; Szopa, S.; Tang, Q.; van Velthoven, P.; Williams, J. E.; Ødemark, K.

    2011-11-01

    The impact of future emissions from aviation and shipping on the atmospheric chemical composition has been estimated using an ensemble of six different atmospheric chemistry models. This study considers an optimistic emission scenario (B1) taking into account e.g. rapid introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies, and a mitigation option for the aircraft sector (B1 ACARE), assuming further technological improvements. Results from sensitivity simulations, where emissions from each of the transport sectors were reduced by 5%, show that emissions from both aircraft and shipping will have a larger impact on atmospheric ozone and OH in near future (2025; B1) and for longer time horizons (2050; B1) compared to recent time (2000). However, the ozone and OH impact from aircraft can be reduced substantially in 2050 if the technological improvements considered in the B1 ACARE will be achieved. Shipping emissions have the largest impact in the marine boundary layer and their ozone contribution may exceed 4 ppbv (when scaling the response of the 5% emission perturbation to 100% by applying a factor 20) over the North Atlantic Ocean in the future (2050; B1) during northern summer (July). In the zonal mean, ship-induced ozone relative to the background levels may exceed 12% near the surface. Corresponding numbers for OH are 6.0 × 105 molecules cm-3 and 30%, respectively. This large impact on OH from shipping leads to a relative methane lifetime reduction of 3.92 (±0.48) on the global average in 2050 B1 (ensemble mean CH4 lifetime is 8.0 (±1.0) yr), compared to 3.68 (±0.47)% in 2000. Aircraft emissions have about 4 times higher ozone enhancement efficiency (ozone molecules enhanced relative to NOx molecules emitted) than shipping emissions, and the maximum impact is found in the UTLS region. Zonal mean aircraft-induced ozone could reach up to 5 ppbv at northern mid- and high latitudes during future summer (July 2050; B1), while the relative impact peaks during

  8. Regional and global projections of twenty-first century glacier mass changes in response to climate scenarios from global climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Radić, Valentina; Bliss, Andrew; Beedlow, A. Cody; Hock, Regine; Miles, Evan; Cogley, J. Graham

    2014-01-01

    A large component of present-day sea-level rise is due to the melt of glaciers other than the ice sheets. Recent projections of their contribution to global sea-level rise for the twenty-first century range between 70 and 180 mm, but bear significant uncertainty due to poor glacier inventory and lack of hypsometric data. Here, we aim to update the projections and improve quantification of their uncertainties by using a recently released global inventory containing outlines of almost every glacier in the world. We model volume change for each glacier in response to transient spatially-differentiated temperature and precipitation projections from 14 global climate models with two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) prepared for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The multi-model mean suggests sea-level rise of 155 ± 41 mm (RCP4.5) and 216 ± 44 mm (RCP8.5) over the period 2006-2100, reducing the current global glacier volume by 29 or 41 %. The largest contributors to projected global volume loss are the glaciers in the Canadian and Russian Arctic, Alaska, and glaciers peripheral to the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Although small contributors to global volume loss, glaciers in Central Europe, low-latitude South America, Caucasus, North Asia, and Western Canada and US are projected to lose more than 80 % of their volume by 2100. However, large uncertainties in the projections remain due to the choice of global climate model and emission scenario. With a series of sensitivity tests we quantify additional uncertainties due to the calibration of our model with sparsely observed glacier mass changes. This gives an upper bound for the uncertainty range of ±84 mm sea-level rise by 2100 for each projection.

  9. Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

    SciTech Connect

    Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jérôme; Brecha, Robert J.; Edmonds, Jae; Jiang, Kejun; Kriegler, Elmar; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Sferra, Fabio

    2016-06-01

    This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to include alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.

  10. Drivers of the tropospheric ozone budget throughout the 21st century under the medium-high climate scenario RCP 6.0

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Revell, L. E.; Tummon, F.; Stenke, A.; Sukhodolov, T.; Coulon, A.; Rozanov, E.; Garny, H.; Grewe, V.; Peter, T.

    2015-01-01

    Because tropospheric ozone is both a~greenhouse gas and harmful air pollutant, it is important to understand how anthropogenic activities may influence its abundance and distribution through the 21st century. Here, we present model simulations performed with the chemistry-climate model SOCOL, in which spatially disaggregated chemistry and transport tracers have been implemented in order to better understand the distribution and projected changes in tropospheric ozone. We examine the influences of ozone precursor emissions (nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs)), climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery on the tropospheric ozone budget, in a~simulation following the climate scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0. Changes in ozone precursor emissions have the largest effect, leading to a global-mean increase in tropospheric ozone which maximises in the early 21st century at 23%. The increase is most pronounced at northern midlatitudes, due to regional emission patterns: between 1990 and 2060, northern midlatitude tropospheric ozone remains at constantly large abundances: 31% larger than in 1960. Over this 70 year period, attempts to reduce emissions in Europe and North America do not have an effect on zonally-averaged northern midlatitude ozone because of increasing emissions from Asia, together with the longevity of ozone in the troposphere. A~simulation with fixed anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions of NOx, CO and non-methane VOCs at 1960 conditions shows a 6 % increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone, and an 11% increase at northern midlatitudes. This increase maximises in the 2080s, and is mostly caused by methane, which maximises in the 2080s following RCP 6.0, and plays an important role in controlling ozone directly, and indirectly through its influence on other VOCs and CO. Enhanced flux of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere as well as climate change-induced enhancements in

  11. Projected 21st Century Impacts of Climate Change on the Performance of the Los Angeles Aqueduct and Adaptation Measures to Mitigate Adverse Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mills, B.; Sayenko, K.; Roy, S. B.; Lew, C.

    2011-12-01

    One of the largest sources of drinking water to the City of Los Angeles (the City) comes from snow melt from the Eastern Sierra Nevada Mountains that drain into Owens Valley and Mono Basin. Much of this water is then transported to the City via the Los Angeles Aqueduct (LAA) originally built in 1913. During the 1980s and earlier, up to 500,000 acre-feet (af) of water was conveyed annually, but more recently less water has been transported due to increasing usage in Owens Valley, and due to a series of dry years.The City is concerned about potential impacts of climate change on this water supply, and commissioned the authors to perform a study to evaluate these potential impacts on both the infrastructure of the LAA and water supply to the City. This presentation focuses on the water supply issue, which has the potential to impact millions of customers. The study results presented here are part of a larger study where 16 global climate models were downscaled and applied to the Owens Valley and Mono Basin watersheds. This presentation begins by assuming base-of-mountain runoff is known from the 16 GCMs, and does not focus on the GCMs or downscaling.The results of the study described in this presentation are those of the authors and not of the LADWP. One of the most consequential findings of the study is the projected decrease in runoff from the watershed over the 21st century. While wet years are still dispersed between dry years, over the 21st century the loss in runoff is equivalent to approximately five years of historical average runoff. In addition to climate change impacts, water usage in the Owens valley is projected to increase over the 21st century and that increasing usage is projected to be comparable to climate change impacts. Eight adaptation options were identified to mitigate potential impacts. These included increasing storage volume of reservoirs in Owens Valley, changing operational rules for releasing water, construction of surface storage or

  12. LAND USE AS A MITIGATION STRATEGY FOR THE WATER QUALITY IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING: A SCENARIO ANALYSIS ON TWO WATERSHEDS IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study uses an integrative approach to study the water quality impacts of future global climate and land use changes. In this study, changing land use types was used as a mitigation strategy to reduce the adverse impacts of global climate change on water resources. The climat...

  13. LAND USE AS A MITIGATION STRATEGY FOR THE WATER QUALITY IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING: A SCENARIO ANALYSIS ON TWO WATERSHEDS IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study uses an integrative approach to study the water quality impacts of future global climate and land use changes. In this study, changing land use types were used as a mitigation strategy to reduce the adverse impacts of global climate change on water resources. The Thorn...

  14. LAND USE AS A MITIGATION STRATEGY FOR THE WATER QUALITY IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING: A SCENARIO ANALYSIS ON TWO WATERSHEDS IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study uses an integrative approach to study the water quality impacts of future global climate and land use changes. In this study, changing land use types was used as a mitigation strategy to reduce the adverse impacts of global climate change on water resources. The climat...

  15. LAND USE AS A MITIGATION STRATEGY FOR THE WATER QUALITY IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING: A SCENARIO ANALYSIS ON TWO WATERSHEDS IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study uses an integrative approach to study the water quality impacts of future global climate and land use changes. In this study, changing land use types were used as a mitigation strategy to reduce the adverse impacts of global climate change on water resources. The Thorn...

  16. Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen in the 21st Century: Projections of the Responses of an Old-Growth Douglas-Fir Forest in the Pacific Northwest under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Z.; Driscoll, C. T.; Hayhoe, K.; Pourmokhtarian, A.; Stoner, A. M. K.

    2015-12-01

    The biogeochemical model, PnET-BGC, was applied to Watershed 2 in H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon, to project ecosystem carbon and nitrogen responses under different future climate change scenarios. Downscaled climate change inputs derived from two IPCC scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were interpreted by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) at Andrews Forest. Model results showed decreases in foliar production under high temperature/CO2 scenarios due to increasing vapor pressure deficit. Projections by PnET-BGC suggest that under future climate changes in primary production coupled with an increasing rate of decomposition may result in decreases in litterfall carbon and nitrogen and soil organic carbon and nitrogen. Such changes in soil organic carbon and nitrogen may cause wide range of changes in ecosystem processing of nitrogen and carbon, such as nitrogen mineralization, plant NH4+ uptake, and stream NH4+ and dissolved organic carbon concentrations depending on climate change scenario considered. Under most high emission scenarios, net nitrogen mineralization and plant NH4+ uptake are projected to increase until the end of this century as result of increasing temperature and associated higher rates of decomposition. An accumulation of nitrogen in plant tissue due to decreasing litterfall decreases plant demand for nitrogen. Such changes in nitrogen mineralization and uptake will result in increase in stream NH4+ concentrations under high emission scenarios. Under low emission scenarios, net nitrogen mineralization and plant NH4+ uptake are projected to increase up to mid-century, then slightly decrease until the end of the century.

  17. Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marengo, Jose A.; Ambrizzi, Tercio; Da Rocha, Rosmeri P.; Alves, Lincoln M.; Cuadra, Santiago V.; Valverde, Maria C.; Torres, Roger R.; Santos, Daniel C.; Ferraz, Simone E. T.

    2010-11-01

    Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5°N-15°S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6-8°C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4°C and in winter between 3 and 5°C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of

  18. Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a

  19. Assessment of spatiotemporal variations in the fluvial wash-load component in the 21st century with regard to GCM climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Mouri, Goro

    2015-11-15

    For stream water, in which a relationship exists between wash-load concentration and discharge, an estimate of fine-sediment delivery may be obtained from a traditional fluvial wash-load rating curve. Here, we demonstrate that the remaining wash-load material load can be estimated from a traditional empirical principle on a nationwide scale. The traditional technique was applied to stream water for the whole of Japan. Four typical GCMs were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields for the following regional climate models to assess the wash-load component based on rating curves: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble, including multiple physics configurations and different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), which was used to produce monthly datasets for the whole country of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on fluvial wash load in Japanese stream water were based on the balance of changes in hydrological factors. The annual and seasonal variations of the fluvial wash load were assessed from the result of the ensemble analysis in consideration of the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The determined results for the amount of wash load increase range from approximately 20 to 110% in the 2040s, especially along part of the Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Japan regions. In the 2090s, the amount of wash load is projected to increase by more than 50% over the whole of Japan. The assessment indicates that seasonal variation is particularly important because the rainy and typhoon seasons, which include extreme events, are the dominant seasons. Because fluvial wash-load-component turbidity

  20. The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Barron, Robert W.; McJeon, Haewon C.

    2015-05-01

    This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive.

  1. Sea of Scenarios: Reducing Uncertainties in Methane Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matthews, E.; Baum, E.

    2010-12-01

    Climate-chemistry model experiments for the 21st century have relied almost exclusively on a small set of unexamined methane (and other) emission projections from economics-based models. Over the past decade, the US Environmental Protection Agency and the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provided baseline and mitigation methane scenarios. The SRES family of projections for the IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) encompassed multiple economic, demographic, and environmental assumptions quantified by several models. In contrast to both of these efforts, plans for IPCC5 include additional scenario development consistent with end-of-century forcings ranging from 2.6 to 8.5W/m2. The largely black-box nature of emission projections used in climate-chemistry experiments and policy analyses has received little attention despite the substantial influence these inputs can exert. This lack of transparency makes assessing the likelihood, or even the plausibility, of projected emissions difficult, contributes to uncertainties in climate simulations, and leaves policy discussions lacking the practical understanding needed to decide on mitigation strategies. We report on analysis of multiple baseline and mitigation methane projections, including our own new ones, to assess the plausibility of underlying assumptions and data. We propose that this analysis can reduce uncertainties in climate predictions by restricting, not enlarging, the suite of methane scenarios to those likely to occur.

  2. Relative outcomes of climate change mitigation related to global temperature versus sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Tebaldi, Claudia; Arblaster, Julie M.; Washington, Warren M.; Teng, Haiyan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Ault, Toby; Strand, Warren G.; White, James B.

    2012-08-01

    There is a common perception that, if human societies make the significant adjustments necessary to substantively cut emissions of greenhouse gases, global temperature increases could be stabilized, and the most dangerous consequences of climate change could be avoided. Here we show results from global coupled climate model simulations with the new representative concentration pathway mitigation scenarios to 2300 to illustrate that, with aggressive mitigation in two of the scenarios, globally averaged temperature increase indeed could be stabilized either below 2 °C or near 3 °C above pre-industrial values. However, even as temperatures stabilize, sea level would continue to rise. With little mitigation, future sea-level rise would be large and continue unabated for centuries. Though sea-level rise cannot be stopped for at least the next several hundred years, with aggressive mitigation it can be slowed down, and this would buy time for adaptation measures to be adopted.

  3. Prediction and Mitigation of the Effects of Catastrophic Fire on Water Supplies: Science for Risk Reduction and Planning for Future Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, D. A.; Tindall, J.

    2008-12-01

    Precipitation falling on forests and grasslands provides much of the water to communities across the United States. The U.S. Forest Service estimates that over 3,400 communities are served by water draining land under its jurisdiction alone. Much of this land is subject to wildland fires, which have been increasing in size and severity in the western United States in response to climatic forcing and increased ignitions from human sources. Runoff from burned landscapes can present a significant risk to municipal and agricultural water supplies from ash, sediment, contaminants from burned structures, and fire-fighting chemicals. Several municipalities, including Denver, Colorado, have experienced both short-term and long-term degradation of their water supplies in the aftermath of fires in watersheds upstream from drinking water reservoirs. Scientific efforts to predict and mitigate the effects of catastrophic fire on water supplies have focused on three areas. The first consists of data collection and carefully designed experiments to understand the change of the hydrologic behavior of burned watersheds in response to rain with different intensities, durations, and trajectories as the watersheds recover. Results from these studies are used to validate models that predict watershed response under different initial conditions constrained by remotely-sensed burn severity, topography, rainfall-intensity recurrence probabilities and other factors. These predictions are the basis for rehabilitation measures applied to the landscape to minimize post-fire runoff and erosion. Efforts are under way to incorporate the chemical effects of ash and fire-fighting compounds in decision-support tools. A second area of scientific focus is the characterization of the chemical and physical properties of ash from wildland fire, including ash from structures consumed by fire. The ash chemistry is correlated to remotely- sensed data, type of vegetation that burned, and the underlying

  4. Projection of high-resolution climate change in the late 21st century over Northern East Asian region using multi-regional climate models and ensembles under 4 RCP scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oh, S. G.; Suh, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    In this study, we simulated the regional climate over Northern East Asian (NEA) region focusing on South Korea for about 110 years (current: 1979-2010, future: 2019-2100 under 4 RCP scenarios) with a 12.5 km horizontal resolution using five regional climate models (RegCM4, WRF, HadGEM3-RA, GRIMs, SNURCM) and two ensemble methods. The simulation results of HadGEM2-AO provided from NIMR/KMA were used as boundary data for RCMs. In general, the five RCMs well simulated the spatial/seasonal variations for thetemperature and precipitation. In particular, the simulation skills of RCMs were clearly improved in both temperature and precipitation compared with that of HadGEM2-AO. However, their simulation skills had systematic error although the magnitudes of error were dependent on the RCMs, variables, seasons, and locations. The simple ensemble reduced the model biases, but most of the systematic biases were still remained. On the other hand, the weighted ensemble averaging using Taylor's skill score (WEA_Tay) clearly reduced the biases irrespective of variables and seasons in terms of mean climate. The temperature over NEA region in the late 21st century is projected to increase irrespective of locations, scenarios (+1.96~+4.85℃), and seasons with more warming at northern part of model domain. On the other hand, the precipitation changes are depended on the locations, scenarios and seasons. More detailed results for climate changes in the late 21st century under 4 RCP scenarios by five RCMs and ensembles will be discussed in presentation.

  5. Impacts of land use, restoration, and climate change on tropical peat carbon stocks in the twenty-first century: implications for climate mitigation

    Treesearch

    Matthew W. Warren; Steve Frolking; Zhaohua Dai; Sofyan Kurnianto

    2016-01-01

    The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increased attention as Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, causing globally significant carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to the atmosphere. We used a process-based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore peat carbon (C) dynamics...

  6. Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes.

    PubMed

    Thomson, Allison M; Calvin, Katherine V; Chini, Louise P; Hurtt, George; Edmonds, James A; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Frolking, Steve; Wise, Marshall A; Janetos, Anthony C

    2010-11-16

    Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will depend on many interactive factors, including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management, and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) (approximately 526 ppm CO(2)) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent, and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option, only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place, and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation, even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies.

  7. Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes

    PubMed Central

    Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Chini, Louise P.; Hurtt, George; Edmonds, James A.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Frolking, Steve; Wise, Marshall A.; Janetos, Anthony C.

    2010-01-01

    Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will depend on many interactive factors, including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management, and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m−2 (approximately 526 ppm CO2) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent, and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option, only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place, and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation, even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies. PMID:20921413

  8. Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research

    PubMed Central

    Ebi, Kristie L.

    2013-01-01

    The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and levels of adaptive capacity. These components are combined within a matrix architecture to create a scenario. Five reference socioeconomic development pathways have been described along axes describing increasing socioeconomic and environmental challenges to adaptation and to mitigation. This paper extends these global pathways to describe their possible consequences for public health and health care, and considers the additional elements that could be added to increase the relevance of the new scenarios to address a wider range of policy relevant questions than previously possible. PMID:24452253

  9. The Nanchang communication about the potential for the implementation of conservation practices for climate change mitigation and adaptation to achieve food security in the 21st century

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Several recent peer reviewed manuscripts have reported on the great challenges humanity is confronting during the XXI century, including a changing climate, depletion of water resources from groundwater and/or snow caps sources that are needed for agricultural production, deforestation, desertificat...

  10. Mid-Twenty-First-Century Changes in Global Wave Energy Flux: Single-Model, Single-Forcing and Single-Scenario Ensemble Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semedo, Alvaro; Lemos, Gil; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Behrens, Arno; Staneva, Joanna; Miranda, Pedro

    2017-04-01

    The knowledge of ocean surface wave energy fluxes (or wave power) is of outmost relevance since wave power has a direct impact in coastal erosion, but also in sediment transport and beach nourishment, and ship, as well as in coastal and offshore infrastructures design. Changes in the global wave energy flux pattern can alter significantly the impact of waves in continental shelf and coastal areas. Up until recently the impact of climate change in future global wave climate had received very little attention. Some single model single scenario global wave climate projections, based on CMIP3 scenarios, were pursuit under the auspices of the COWCLIP (coordinated ocean wave climate projections) project, and received some attention in the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) AR5 (fifth assessment report). In the present study the impact of a warmer climate in the near future global wave energy flux climate is investigated through a 4-member "coherent" ensemble of wave climate projections: single-model, single-forcing, and single-scenario. In this methodology model variability is reduced, leaving only room for the climate change signal. The four ensemble members were produced with the wave model WAM, forced with wind speed and ice coverage from EC-Earth projections, following the representative concentration pathway with a high emissions scenario 8.5 (RCP8.5). The ensemble present climate reference period (the control run) has been set for 1976 to 2005. The projected changes in the global wave energy flux climate are analyzed for the 2031-2060 period.

  11. Bioenergy as a Mitigation Measure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dass, P.; Brovkin, V.; Müller, C.; Cramer, W.

    2011-12-01

    Numerous studies have shown that bioenergy, being one of the renewable energies with the lowest costs, is expected to play an important role in the near future as climate change mitigation measure. Current practices of converting crop products such as carbohydrates or plant oils to ethanol or biodiesel have limited capabilities to curb emission. Moreover, they compete with food production for the most fertile lands. Thus, second generation bioenergy technologies are being developed to process lignocellulosic plant materials from fast growing tree and grass species. A number of deforestation experiments using Earth System models have shown that in the mid- to high latitudes, deforested surface albedo strongly increases in presence of snow. This biophysical effect causes cooling, which could dominate over the biogeochemical warming effect because of the carbon emissions due to deforestation. In order to find out the global bioenergy potential of extensive plantations in the mid- to high latitudes, and the resultant savings in carbon emissions, we use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL run at a high spatial resolution of 0.5°. It represents both natural and managed ecosystems, including the cultivation of cellulosic energy crops. LPJmL is run with 21st century projections of climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration based on the IPCC-SRES business as usual or A2 scenario. Latitudes above 45° in both hemispheres are deforested and planted with crops having the highest bioenergy return for the respective pixels of the model. The rest of the Earth has natural vegetation. The agricultural management intensity values are used such that it results in the best approximation for 1999 - 2003 national yields of wheat and maize as reported by FAOSTAT 2009. Four different scenarios of land management are used ranging from an idealistic or best case scenario, where all limitations of soil and terrain properties are managed to the worst case scenario where none of these

  12. Arctic Planning Scenarios: Scenario #1: Defence Scenario

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-07-01

    ministre de la Défense nationale, 2011 Abstract With the change in northern climate over the past decade, current policy and media discussions have...scenarios, a scenario development methodology, and a Capability Inventory Tool (CIT) to identify and characterize legislation and policy on the Arctic, with...for Canada to be able to meet its strategy and policy objectives. Résumé Compte tenu des changements survenus dans le climat nordique au cours des

  13. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, Eric A.; Kanter, David

    2014-10-01

    Effective mitigation for N2O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N2O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N2O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Net anthropogenic N2O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N2O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N2O emissions is highly uncertain; N2O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N2O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions.

  14. A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Riahi, Keywan; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Thomson, Allison M.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Kram, Tom; Berkhout, Frans; Swart, Robert; Janetos, Anthony C.; Rose, Steven K.; Arnell, Nigel

    2012-02-01

    In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario thread through the different climate research communities (climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation (VIA) and mitigation) in order to provide assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and other VIA challenges. The scenario framework is defined across two main axes. One is defined by the radiative forcing levels (climate signal) of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The second axis is defined by socio-economic development and comprises elements that affect the capacity for adaptation and mitigation but also exposure to climate impacts. The proposed set of scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and spans a full century time scale. Scenario assessment based on the proposed framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and the VIA research community, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across communities.

  15. Early Action on HFCs Mitigates Future Atmospheric Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hurwitz, Margaret; Fleming, Eric; Newman, Paul; Li, Feng; Liang, Qing

    2017-04-01

    As countries take action to mitigate global warming, both by ratifying the UNFCCC Paris Agreement and enacting the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to manage hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), it is important to consider the relative importance of the pertinent greenhouse gases (GHGs), the distinct structure of their atmospheric impacts, and how the timing of potential GHG regulations would affect future changes in atmospheric temperature and ozone. Chemistry-climate model simulations demonstrate that HFCs could contribute substantially to anthropogenic climate change by the mid-21st century, particularly in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere i.e., global average warming up to 0.19K at 80hPa. Three HFC mitigation scenarios demonstrate the benefits of taking early action in avoiding future atmospheric change: more than 90% of the climate change impacts of HFCs can be avoided if emissions stop by 2030.

  16. Early action on HFCs mitigates future atmospheric change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Fleming, Eric L.; Newman, Paul A.; Li, Feng; Liang, Qing

    2016-11-01

    As countries take action to mitigate global warming, both by ratifying the UNFCCC Paris Agreement and enacting the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to manage hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), it is important to consider the relative importance of the pertinent greenhouse gases and the distinct structure of their atmospheric impacts, and how the timing of potential greenhouse gas regulations would affect future changes in atmospheric temperature and ozone. HFCs should be explicitly considered in upcoming climate and ozone assessments, since chemistry-climate model simulations demonstrate that HFCs could contribute substantially to anthropogenic climate change by the mid-21st century, particularly in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere i.e., global average warming up to 0.19 K at 80 hPa. The HFC mitigation scenarios described in this study demonstrate the benefits of taking early action in avoiding future atmospheric change: more than 90% of the climate change impacts of HFCs can be avoided if emissions stop by 2030.

  17. A more productive, but different, ocean after mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    John, Jasmin G.; Stock, Charles A.; Dunne, John P.

    2015-11-01

    Reversibility studies suggest a lagged recovery of global mean sea surface temperatures after mitigation, raising the question of whether a similar lag is likely for marine net primary production (NPP). Here we assess NPP reversibility with a mitigation scenario in which projected Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 forcings are applied out to 2100 and then reversed over the course of the following century in a fully coupled carbon-climate Earth System Model. In contrast to the temperature lag, we find a rapid increase in global mean NPP, including an overshoot to values above contemporary means. The enhanced NPP arises from a transient imbalance between the cooling surface ocean and continued warming in subsurface waters, which weakens upper ocean density gradients, resulting in deeper mixing and enhanced surface nitrate. We also find a marine ecosystem regime shift as persistent silicate depletion results in increased prevalence of large, non-diatom phytoplankton.

  18. Overview of a new scenario framework for climate change research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2013-12-01

    -axis). They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. The reality that the development pathways may be affected by climate change will be taken into account when combining SSPs with climate change projections to generate a socioeconomic-climate scenario. The new scenario process, although complex, provides a flexible toolkit to facilitate research and assessment that can characterize the range of uncertainty in mitigation efforts required to achieve particular radiative forcing pathways, in adaptation efforts that could be undertaken to prepare for and respond to the climate change associated with those pathways, and in residual impacts.

  19. Dark scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahonen, Pasi; Alahuhta, Petteri; Daskala, Barbara; Delaitre, Sabine; Hert, Paul De; Lindner, Ralf; Maghiros, Ioannis; Moscibroda, Anna; Schreurs, Wim; Verlinden, Michiel

    In this chapter, we present four "dark scenarios" that highlight the key socio-economic, legal, technological and ethical risks to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by new AmI technologies. We call them dark scenarios, because they show things that could go wrong in an AmI world, because they present visions of the future that we do not want to become reality. The scenarios expose threats and vulnerabilities as a way to inform policy-makers and planners about issues they need to take into account in developing new policies or updating existing legislation. Before presenting the four scenarios and our analysis of each, we describe the process of how we created the scenarios as well as the elements in our methodology for analysing the scenarios.

  20. New Study For Climate Modeling, Analyses, and Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowe, Jason A.; Hewitt, Chris D.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Johns, Tim C.; Stehfest, Elke; Royer, Jean-François; van der Linden, Paul J.

    2009-05-01

    The European Commission is funding the ENSEMBLES project, which aims to provide policy makers with information from the latest climate modeling, analyses, and scenarios. Currently, the most comprehensive estimates of climate change are made using general circulation models (GCMs) and Earth system models, but these have been used mostly to simulate futures that do not factor in climate mitigation policy. The results of these simulations typically show global average warming greatly exceeding the European Union (EU) climate policy target of 2°C above preindustrial levels, with associated large impacts on human and natural systems. To date, simple climate models typically have been used to assess the emissions trajectories that are required for meeting this target. The ENSEMBLES project is the first international multiclimate model intercomparison using a politically relevant aggressive mitigation scenario, referred to as E1 (Figures 1a and 1b). This scenario leads to a peak in the carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent concentration in the atmosphere at around 535 parts per million (ppm) in 2045 before eventually stabilizing at around 450 ppm during the 22nd century. The climate models used are generally improved or extended versions of models contributing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report.

  1. A More Productive, But Different, Ocean After Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    John, J. G.; Stock, C. A.; Dunne, J. P.

    2016-02-01

    Warming of the ocean surface under greenhouse gas (GHG) accumulation has been projected to enhance ocean stratification, exacerbate nutrient limitation of phytoplankton, and decrease marine net primary production (NPP) over the next century. Studies of the reversibility of warming further suggest a lagged recovery of global mean sea surface temperatures after GHG mitigation, suggesting that oceanic NPP may also be slow to rebound. In this study, we employ a mitigation scenario in which projected Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) forcings are applied out to 2100, and then reversed over the course of the following century in a fully coupled carbon-climate earth system model, and find an unexpected rapid increase in global mean NPP, including an "overshoot" to values above contemporary means. The 5.5% NPP overshoot is driven by a similar overshoot (11.8m) in the maximum monthly mixed layer depth arising from a transient imbalance between the cooling surface ocean and waters at intermediate depths ( 100-400m) that still carry strong legacy effects of warming in the 21st century. Residual warm subsurface waters at these depths weaken upper ocean density gradients, resulting in deeper mixing and enhanced surface nutrients despite the continued presence of significant legacy warming and freshening in surface waters. Enhanced surface nutrients combine with the positive effects of residual warming on phytoplankton growth and nutrient recycling to drive a global mean NPP overshoot. Regional variations in NPP reversibility exist however, and some regions experience prolonged suppression of NPP. We also find a marine ecosystem regime shift as stark depletion of silica at intermediate depths over the 21st century warming and mitigation period results in increased prevalence of large, non-diatom phytoplankton.

  2. Scenario planning.

    PubMed

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  3. Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brecha, R.

    2008-12-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

  4. Exploring Policy Implications of Global Energy Scenarios That Stabilize Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hummel, H. L.

    2006-12-01

    Scenario analysis is an appropriate analytic technique for treating problems characterized by deep uncertainty, a condition in which both the values of variables and the relationships between them are uncertain. More than 700 hypothetical scenarios for energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century have been produced to explore a range of possible future conditions and the effects of specific policy interventions that could stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Though emission scenarios are widely cited in climate science studies and policy analysis, a gap in communication and understanding persists between scenario analysts whose models generate the emission paths and the scientists and policy analysts who use them. To more clearly identify the sources of emission reductions in stabilization scenarios, this paper proposes a method for a detailed decomposition that quantifies the following categories: demand reduction (including structural transformation in the economy, end-use energy efficiency, and improvements to energy supply efficiency), switching from fossil fuels to specific zero carbon energy sources, carbon sequestration, and land use change. The study applies such a mitigation decomposition technique to a set of sample scenarios generated by multiple models using a variety of reference cases constrained to relatively low stabilization targets. The range of results reflects uncertainty both about the initial assumptions for the reference scenarios and the numerous technology transition paths that could possibly achieve the stabilization targets. One policy-relevant finding is that a primary energy accounting convention called the direct equivalent method can create the appearance of mitigation through a reduction in energy use that is actually the result of fuel switching to non-combustion energy sources in the electric power sector (e.g. nuclear power, hydropower, and solar power). The IPCC Special Report on Emission

  5. Temporal and spatial distribution of global mitigation cost: INDCs and equity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Jing-Yu; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko

    2016-11-01

    Each country’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) pledges an emission target for 2025 or 2030. Here, we evaluated the INDC inter-generational and inter-regional equity by comparing scenarios with INDC emissions target in 2030 and with an immediate emission reduction associated with a global uniform carbon price using Asian-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium. Both scenarios eventually achieve 2 °C target. The results showed that, as compared with an immediate emission reduction scenario, the inter-generational equity status is not favorable for INDC scenario and the future generation suffers more from delayed mitigation. Moreover, this conclusion was robust to the wide range of inequality aversion parameter that determines discount rate. On the other hand, the INDC scenario has better inter-regional equity in the early part of the century than does the immediate emission reduction scenario in which we assume a global carbon price during the period up to 2030. However, inter-regional equity worsens later in the century. The additional emissions reduction to the INDC in 2030 would improve both inter- and inter-regional equity as compared to the current INDC. We also suggest that countries should commit to more emissions reductions in the follow-up INDC communications and that continuous consideration for low-income countries is needed for global climate change cooperation after 2030.

  6. Mitigation strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carusi, Andrea; Perozzi, Ettore; Scholl, Hans

    2005-04-01

    There are three major options for mitigation of Near Earth Objects (NEOs). Deflection and disruption of NEOs require the development of new space technologies. A third option, the preparation of the target area on Earth to mitigate an impact, needs institutions for the required civil defense measures. The three options are complementary. Basic requirements for the presently most preferred strategy, deflection, are presented. To cite this article: A. Carusi et al., C. R. Physique 6 (2005).

  7. On the potential for alternative greenhouse gas equivalence metrics to influence sectoral mitigation patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brennan, Mark E.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.

    2013-03-01

    Equivalence metrics used to quantify the relative climate impacts of different atmospheric forcers serve an essential function in policy and economic discussions about global climate change. The 100-year global warming potential (GWP-100), the most established greenhouse gas (GHG) equivalence metric, is used within the Kyoto Protocol, and in most emissions inventory, trading and offset mechanisms, to assign the mitigation value of non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases relative to carbon dioxide. In recent literature the GWP-100 and alternative metrics have been used to compare various anthropogenic climate forcers with respect to a wide range of environmental and economic goals. Building on this work, we examine how 16 different static and time-varying CO2-equivalence schemes might influence GHG mitigation across sectors and gases in a perfect and fluid global mitigation regime. This mitigation regime is guided by achieving a global mean radiative forcing (RF) of 5.7 Wm-2 in 2100 from 1765 levels through a mitigation policy of prescribed emissions reductions in each decade. It was found that static metrics defined on 20- instead of 100-year time horizons favor mitigation strategies that maximize the abatement of short-lived gases (e.g. methane), on average resulting in an RF from methane in 2100 of 0.5 Wm-2 instead of 1.1 Wm-2 from 100-year metrics. Similarly, metrics that consider integrated rather than end-point climate impacts imply mitigation strategies that maximize mitigation of shorter-lived GHGs, resulting in higher abatement of agriculture and waste emissions. Comparing extreme scenarios, these mitigation shifts across gases and sectors result in a nearly 30% difference in the representation of methane in global cumulative emissions reductions. This shift across gases and sectors to mitigate shorter-lived GHGs, in lieu of longer-lived GHGs like carbon dioxide, has implications for the long-term warming commitment due to 21st century emissions.

  8. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  9. Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation.

    PubMed

    Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, Michiel; Meinshausen, Malte; Shindell, Drew T; Hare, William; Klimont, Zbigniew; Velders, Guus J M; Amann, Markus; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

    2014-11-18

    Anthropogenic global warming is driven by emissions of a wide variety of radiative forcers ranging from very short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), like black carbon, to very long-lived, like CO2. These species are often released from common sources and are therefore intricately linked. However, for reasons of simplification, this CO2-SLCF linkage was often disregarded in long-term projections of earlier studies. Here we explicitly account for CO2-SLCF linkages and show that the short- and long-term climate effects of many SLCF measures consistently become smaller in scenarios that keep warming to below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. Although long-term mitigation of methane and hydrofluorocarbons are integral parts of 2 °C scenarios, early action on these species mainly influences near-term temperatures and brings small benefits for limiting maximum warming relative to comparable reductions taking place later. Furthermore, we find that maximum 21st-century warming in 2 °C-consistent scenarios is largely unaffected by additional black-carbon-related measures because key emission sources are already phased-out through CO2 mitigation. Our study demonstrates the importance of coherently considering CO2-SLCF coevolutions. Failing to do so leads to strongly and consistently overestimating the effect of SLCF measures in climate stabilization scenarios. Our results reinforce that SLCF measures are to be considered complementary rather than a substitute for early and stringent CO2 mitigation. Near-term SLCF measures do not allow for more time for CO2 mitigation. We disentangle and resolve the distinct benefits across different species and therewith facilitate an integrated strategy for mitigating both short and long-term climate change.

  10. Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation

    PubMed Central

    Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, Michiel; Meinshausen, Malte; Shindell, Drew T.; Hare, William; Klimont, Zbigniew; Amann, Markus; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

    2014-01-01

    Anthropogenic global warming is driven by emissions of a wide variety of radiative forcers ranging from very short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), like black carbon, to very long-lived, like CO2. These species are often released from common sources and are therefore intricately linked. However, for reasons of simplification, this CO2–SLCF linkage was often disregarded in long-term projections of earlier studies. Here we explicitly account for CO2–SLCF linkages and show that the short- and long-term climate effects of many SLCF measures consistently become smaller in scenarios that keep warming to below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. Although long-term mitigation of methane and hydrofluorocarbons are integral parts of 2 °C scenarios, early action on these species mainly influences near-term temperatures and brings small benefits for limiting maximum warming relative to comparable reductions taking place later. Furthermore, we find that maximum 21st-century warming in 2 °C-consistent scenarios is largely unaffected by additional black-carbon-related measures because key emission sources are already phased-out through CO2 mitigation. Our study demonstrates the importance of coherently considering CO2–SLCF coevolutions. Failing to do so leads to strongly and consistently overestimating the effect of SLCF measures in climate stabilization scenarios. Our results reinforce that SLCF measures are to be considered complementary rather than a substitute for early and stringent CO2 mitigation. Near-term SLCF measures do not allow for more time for CO2 mitigation. We disentangle and resolve the distinct benefits across different species and therewith facilitate an integrated strategy for mitigating both short and long-term climate change. PMID:25368182

  11. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

    PubMed

    Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2013-09-17

    Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century.

  12. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario

    PubMed Central

    Dove, Sophie G.; Kline, David I.; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E.; Tyson, Gene W.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2013-01-01

    Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century. PMID:24003127

  13. Mitigation of hurricane potential intensity by the Montreal Protocol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camargo, S. J.; Polvani, L. M.; Garcia, R. R.

    2014-12-01

    In the last decade, it has become apparent that the regulation ofozone depleting substances (ODS) by the Montreal Protocol has hadprofound impacts on the climate system, affecting not only surfacetemperatures but also the atmospheric circulation and the entirehydrological cycle. In this study we demonstrate that he MontrealProtocol will also be very effective in mitigating the potentialintensity (PI) of hurricanes in the coming half century. We accomplish this by comparing the projections of a standard CMIP5RCP4.5 scenario to those of the so-called "World Avoided" scenario, inwhich ODS grow unabated in the absence of regulations. For thiscomparison, we use ouput from two 3-member ensembles of WholeAtmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), integrated between 2005and 2065. WACCM is the most comprehensive member of the CommunityEarth System Models (CESM), and includes interactive stratosphericchemistry, in addition to coupled land, ocean, and sea-ice components, In the World Avoided projections we find that the hurricane PI issubstantially larger that in the standard RCP4.5 case. Specifically,over the decade 2056-2065, the increase in PI is comparable to the onebetween RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the entire multi-model mean of the CMIP5models. Similar to what is projected by the CMIP5 models forincreasing CO2, in the World Avoided scenario the increase in hurricanPI is due to a combined increase in sea surface temperature and CAPE,and a decrease in the temperature in upper levels, near 70hPa. Our WACCM simulations indicate that the mitigating effect of theMontreal Protocol is highly significant: without ODSs regulations thePI would be twice as large as currently projected by the middle ofthis century.

  14. Delayed detection of climate mitigation benefits due to climate inertia and variability.

    PubMed

    Tebaldi, Claudia; Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2013-10-22

    Climate change mitigation acts by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and thus curbing, or even reversing, the increase in their atmospheric concentration. This reduces the associated anthropogenic radiative forcing, and hence the size of the warming. Because of the inertia and internal variability affecting the climate system and the global carbon cycle, it is unlikely that a reduction in warming would be immediately discernible. Here we use 21st century simulations from the latest ensemble of Earth System Model experiments to investigate and quantify when mitigation becomes clearly discernible. We use one of the scenarios as a reference for a strong mitigation strategy, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and compare its outcome with either RCP4.5 or RCP8.5, both of which are less severe mitigation pathways. We analyze global mean atmospheric CO2, and changes in annually and seasonally averaged surface temperature at global and regional scales. For global mean surface temperature, the median detection time of mitigation is about 25-30 y after RCP2.6 emissions depart from the higher emission trajectories. This translates into detection of a mitigation signal by 2035 or 2045, depending on whether the comparison is with RCP8.5 or RCP4.5, respectively. The detection of climate benefits of emission mitigation occurs later at regional scales, with a median detection time between 30 and 45 y after emission paths separate. Requiring a 95% confidence level induces a delay of several decades, bringing detection time toward the end of the 21st century.

  15. Delayed detection of climate mitigation benefits due to climate inertia and variability

    PubMed Central

    Tebaldi, Claudia; Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2013-01-01

    Climate change mitigation acts by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and thus curbing, or even reversing, the increase in their atmospheric concentration. This reduces the associated anthropogenic radiative forcing, and hence the size of the warming. Because of the inertia and internal variability affecting the climate system and the global carbon cycle, it is unlikely that a reduction in warming would be immediately discernible. Here we use 21st century simulations from the latest ensemble of Earth System Model experiments to investigate and quantify when mitigation becomes clearly discernible. We use one of the scenarios as a reference for a strong mitigation strategy, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and compare its outcome with either RCP4.5 or RCP8.5, both of which are less severe mitigation pathways. We analyze global mean atmospheric CO2, and changes in annually and seasonally averaged surface temperature at global and regional scales. For global mean surface temperature, the median detection time of mitigation is about 25–30 y after RCP2.6 emissions depart from the higher emission trajectories. This translates into detection of a mitigation signal by 2035 or 2045, depending on whether the comparison is with RCP8.5 or RCP4.5, respectively. The detection of climate benefits of emission mitigation occurs later at regional scales, with a median detection time between 30 and 45 y after emission paths separate. Requiring a 95% confidence level induces a delay of several decades, bringing detection time toward the end of the 21st century. PMID:24101485

  16. Simulation of groundwater flow in the "1,500-foot" sand and "2,000-foot" sand, with scenarios to mitigate saltwater migration in the "2,000-foot" sand of the Baton Rouge area, Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heywood, Charles E.; Griffith, Jason M.; Lovelace, John K.

    2014-01-01

    Groundwater withdrawals have caused saltwater to encroach into freshwater-bearing aquifers beneath Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Groundwater investigations in the 1960s identified a freshwater-saltwater interface located at the Baton Rouge Fault, across which abrupt changes in water levels occur. Aquifers south of the fault generally contain saltwater, and aquifers north of the fault contain freshwater, though limited saltwater encroachment has been detected within 7 of the 10 aquifers north of the fault. The 10 aquifers beneath the Baton Rouge area, which includes East and West Baton Rouge Parishes, Pointe Coupee Parish, and East and West Feliciana Parishes, provided about 167 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) for public supply and industrial use in 2010. Groundwater withdrawals from the “2,000-foot” sand in East Baton Rouge Parish have caused water-level drawdown as great as 356 feet (ft) and induced saltwater movement northward across the fault. Saltwater encroachment threatens industrial wells that are located about 3 miles north of the fault. Constant and variable-density groundwater models were developed with the MODFLOW and SEAWAT groundwater modeling codes to evaluate strategies to control saltwater migration, including changes in the distribution of groundwater withdrawals and installation of “scavenger” wells to intercept saltwater before it reaches existing production wells. Six hypothetical scenarios simulated the effects of different groundwater withdrawal options on groundwater levels within the “1,500-foot” sand and the “2,000-foot” sand and the transport of saltwater within the “2,000-foot” sand during 2008–47. Scenario 1 is considered a base case for comparison to the other five scenarios and simulates continuation of 2007 reported groundwater withdrawals. Scenario 2 simulates discontinuation of withdrawals from seven selected industrial wells located in the northwest corner of East Baton Rouge Parish and predicts that water levels

  17. Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

  18. BECCS and Sustainable Land-Use in Mitigation Pathways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in the future socio-economic scenarios to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative fossil fuel emissions in the end of the 21st century. Large scale use of BECCS implies certain amount of additional production of biofuels, which could potentially cause substantial carbon emissions from the land-use change. Developing sustainable low carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications involving the large scale BECCS. In this study, we use a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model to evaluate effects of land-use change in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative fossil fuel emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target used in CMIP5 future climate change analysis. We also run a global crop model to examine BECCS attainability in the land-use scenario with a consideration of future fertilizer and irrigation use options. In the evaluation, we consider the deployment of bioenergy with both first-generation and second-generation biofuels. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crop production would not be sufficient to achieve the required BECCS of RCP2.6 scenario even in the high fertilizer and irrigation use cases. It would require more than doubling the area for bioenergy crops production around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large scale land-use changes that emit significant amount of carbon from deforestation. To reduce the potential land-use change emissions, optimal use of second-generation biofuel crops are discussed.

  19. Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engström, Kerstin; Lindeskog, Mats; Olin, Stefan; Hassler, John; Smith, Benjamin

    2017-09-01

    Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate-economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model). We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road). For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

  20. Early Action on Hfcs Mitigates Future Atmospheric Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Fleming, Eric L.; Newman, Paul A.; Li, Feng; Liang, Qing

    2016-01-01

    As countries take action to mitigate global warming, both by ratifying theUNFCCCParis Agreement and enacting the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to manage hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), it is important to consider the relative importance of the pertinent greenhouse gases and the distinct structure of their atmospheric impacts, and how the timing of potential greenhouse gas regulations would affect future changes in atmospheric temperature and ozone. HFCs should be explicitly considered in upcoming climate and ozone assessments, since chemistry-climate model simulations demonstrate that HFCs could contribute substantially to anthropogenic climate change by the mid- 21st century, particularly in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere i.e., global average warming up to 0.19 Kat 80 hPa. The HFCmitigation scenarios described in this study demonstrate the benefits of taking early action in avoiding future atmospheric change: more than 90% of the climate change impacts of HFCs can be avoided if emissions stop by 2030.

  1. Repository preclosure accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Yook, H.R.; Arbital, J.G.; Keeton, J.M.; Mosier, J.E.; Weaver, B.S.

    1984-09-01

    Waste-handling operations at a spent-fuel repository were investigated to identify operational accidents that could occur. The facility was subdivided, through systems engineering procedures, into individual operations that involve the waste and one specific component of the waste package, in one specific area of the handling facility. From this subdivision approximately 600 potential accidents involving waste package components were identified and then discussed. Supporting descriptive data included for each accident scenario are distance of drop, speed of collision, weight of package component, and weight of equipment involved. The energy of impact associated with each potential accident is calculated to provide a basis for comparison of the relative severities of all the accidents. The results and conclusions suggest approaches to accident consequence mitigation through waste package and facility design. 35 figures, 9 tables.

  2. Future Arctic climate changes: Adaptation and mitigation time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin; Walsh, John E.; Stroeve, Julienne C.

    2014-02-01

    The climate in the Arctic is changing faster than in midlatitudes. This is shown by increased temperatures, loss of summer sea ice, earlier snow melt, impacts on ecosystems, and increased economic access. Arctic sea ice volume has decreased by 75% since the 1980s. Long-lasting global anthropogenic forcing from carbon dioxide has increased over the previous decades and is anticipated to increase over the next decades. Temperature increases in response to greenhouse gases are amplified in the Arctic through feedback processes associated with shifts in albedo, ocean and land heat storage, and near-surface longwave radiation fluxes. Thus, for the next few decades out to 2040, continuing environmental changes in the Arctic are very likely, and the appropriate response is to plan for adaptation to these changes. For example, it is very likely that the Arctic Ocean will become seasonally nearly sea ice free before 2050 and possibly within a decade or two, which in turn will further increase Arctic temperatures, economic access, and ecological shifts. Mitigation becomes an important option to reduce potential Arctic impacts in the second half of the 21st century. Using the most recent set of climate model projections (CMIP5), multimodel mean temperature projections show an Arctic-wide end of century increase of +13°C in late fall and +5°C in late spring for a business-as-usual emission scenario (RCP8.5) in contrast to +7°C in late fall and +3°C in late spring if civilization follows a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5). Such temperature increases demonstrate the heightened sensitivity of the Arctic to greenhouse gas forcing.

  3. Projections of Rapidly Rising Temperatures over Africa Under Low Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Engelbrecht, Francois; Adegoke, Jimmy; Bopape, Mary-Jane; Naidoo, Mogesh; Garland, Rebecca; Thatcher, Marcus; McGregor, John; Katzfe, Jack; Werner, Micha; Ichoku, Charles; Gatebe, Charles

    2015-01-01

    An analysis of observed trends in African annual-average near-surface temperatures over the last five decades reveals drastic increases, particularly over parts of the subtropics and central tropical Africa. Over these regions, temperatures have been rising at more than twice the global rate of temperature increase. An ensemble of high-resolution downscalings, obtained using a single regional climate model forced with the sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of an ensemble of global circulation model (GCM) simulations, is shown to realistically represent the relatively strong temperature increases observed in subtropical southern and northern Africa. The amplitudes of warming are generally underestimated, however. Further warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with plausible increases of 4-6 C over the subtropics and 3-5 C over the tropics by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (a low mitigation) scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. High impact climate events such as heat-wave days and high fire-danger days are consistently projected to increase drastically in their frequency of occurrence. General decreases in soil-moisture availability are projected, even for regions where increases in rainfall are plausible, due to enhanced levels of evaporation. The regional downscalings presented here, and recent GCM projections obtained for Africa, indicate that African annual-averaged temperatures may plausibly rise at about 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the subtropics, and at a somewhat lower rate in the tropics. These projected increases although drastic, may be conservative given the model underestimations of observed temperature trends. The relatively strong rate of warming over Africa, in combination with the associated increases in extreme temperature events, may be key factors to consider when interpreting the suitability of global mitigation targets in terms of African

  4. Projections of Rapidly Rising Temperatures over Africa Under Low Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Engelbrecht, Francois; Adegoke, Jimmy; Bopape, Mary-Jane; Naidoo, Mogesh; Garland, Rebecca; Thatcher, Marcus; McGregor, John; Katzfe, Jack; Werner, Micha; Ichoku, Charles; hide

    2015-01-01

    An analysis of observed trends in African annual-average near-surface temperatures over the last five decades reveals drastic increases, particularly over parts of the subtropics and central tropical Africa. Over these regions, temperatures have been rising at more than twice the global rate of temperature increase. An ensemble of high-resolution downscalings, obtained using a single regional climate model forced with the sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of an ensemble of global circulation model (GCM) simulations, is shown to realistically represent the relatively strong temperature increases observed in subtropical southern and northern Africa. The amplitudes of warming are generally underestimated, however. Further warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with plausible increases of 4-6 C over the subtropics and 3-5 C over the tropics by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (a low mitigation) scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. High impact climate events such as heat-wave days and high fire-danger days are consistently projected to increase drastically in their frequency of occurrence. General decreases in soil-moisture availability are projected, even for regions where increases in rainfall are plausible, due to enhanced levels of evaporation. The regional downscalings presented here, and recent GCM projections obtained for Africa, indicate that African annual-averaged temperatures may plausibly rise at about 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the subtropics, and at a somewhat lower rate in the tropics. These projected increases although drastic, may be conservative given the model underestimations of observed temperature trends. The relatively strong rate of warming over Africa, in combination with the associated increases in extreme temperature events, may be key factors to consider when interpreting the suitability of global mitigation targets in terms of African

  5. Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hussein, Zekarias; Hertel, Thomas; Golub, Alla

    2013-09-01

    Mitigation of the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading policy concerns of the 21st century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, the content and, most importantly, the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. In this letter we consider two alternative policy scenarios, one in which only the Annex I countries take action, and the second in which the first policy is accompanied by a forest carbon sequestration policy in the non-Annex regions. Using an economic climate policy analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of the above policy scenarios on seven socio-economic groups in 14 developing countries. We find that the Annex-I-only policy is poverty friendly, since it enhances the competitiveness of non-Annex countries—particularly in agricultural production. However, once forest carbon sequestration incentives in the non-Annex regions are added to the policy package, the overall effect is to raise poverty in the majority of our sample countries. The reason for this outcome is that the dominant impacts of this policy are to raise returns to land, reduce agricultural output and raise food prices. Since poor households rely primarily on their own labor for income, and generally own little land, and since they also spend a large share of their income on food, they are generally hurt on both the earning and the spending fronts. This result is troubling, since forest carbon sequestration—particularly through avoided deforestation—is a promising, low cost option for climate change mitigation.

  6. Indian methane and nitrous oxide emissions and mitigation flexibility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garg, Amit; Shukla, P. R.; Kapshe, Manmohan; Menon, Deepa

    Methane (CH 4) and nitrous oxide (N 2O) contributed 27% and 7%, respectively, to India's CO 2 equivalent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2000, the remaining being the carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions. Presently, agriculture and livestock related emissions contribute above 65% of Indian CH 4 emissions and above 90% of N 2O emissions. Since these activities are widely dispersed, with a considerable portion being sub-sustenance activities, emission mitigation requires considerable efforts. We use geographical information system (GIS) interfaced Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM/Enduse), which employs technology share projections, for estimating future CH 4 and N 2O emissions. The future emissions and mitigation flexibility are analyzed for a reference scenario and two mitigation scenarios (medium and strong). Future CH 4 emissions in 2030 are projected to reach 24.4 Tg (reference scenario), 21.3 Tg (medium mitigation scenario) and 17.6 Tg (strong mitigation scenario). Future CH 4 emission scenarios indicate rising shares of municipal solid waste (MSW) and coal bed methane, where mitigation technologies have good penetration potential. Improved cattle feed and digesters, and better rice paddy cultivation practices that are adopted for higher yields and improved irrigation coverage also offer CH 4 mitigation as ancillary benefits. Future N 2O emissions in 2030 are projected to reach 0.81 Tg (reference scenario), 0.69 Tg (medium mitigation scenario) and 0.6 Tg (strong mitigation scenario). Better utilization of nitrogen fertilizer and increased use of organic fertilizers, partly produced from MSW, offer interesting mitigation opportunities for N 2O emissions. Some of these technology initiatives are already visible in India at different stages of development and appropriate policy thrust may strengthen them in future.

  7. Tsunami hazard in the Caribbean: Regional exposure derived from credible worst case scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harbitz, C. B.; Glimsdal, S.; Bazin, S.; Zamora, N.; Løvholt, F.; Bungum, H.; Smebye, H.; Gauer, P.; Kjekstad, O.

    2012-04-01

    The present study documents a high tsunami hazard in the Caribbean region, with several thousands of lives lost in tsunamis and associated earthquakes since the XIXth century. Since then, the coastal population of the Caribbean and the Central West Atlantic region has grown significantly and is still growing. Understanding this hazard is therefore essential for the development of efficient mitigation measures. To this end, we report a regional tsunami exposure assessment based on potential and credible seismic and non-seismic tsunamigenic sources. Regional tsunami databases have been compiled and reviewed, and on this basis five main scenarios have been selected to estimate the exposure. The scenarios comprise two Mw8 earthquake tsunamis (north of Hispaniola and east of Lesser Antilles), two subaerial/submarine volcano flank collapse tsunamis (Montserrat and Saint Lucia), and one tsunami resulting from a landslide on the flanks of the Kick'em Jenny submarine volcano (north of Grenada). Offshore tsunami water surface elevations as well as maximum water level distributions along the shore lines are computed and discussed for each of the scenarios. The number of exposed people has been estimated in each case, together with a summary of the tsunami exposure for the earthquake and the landslide tsunami scenarios. For the earthquake scenarios, the highest tsunami exposure relative to the population is found for Guadeloupe (6.5%) and Antigua (7.5%), while Saint Lucia (4.5%) and Antigua (5%) have been found to have the highest tsunami exposure relative to the population for the landslide scenarios. Such high exposure levels clearly warrant more attention on dedicated mitigation measures in the Caribbean region.

  8. Climate change under aggressive mitigation: the ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johns, T. C.; Royer, J.-F.; Höschel, I.; Huebener, H.; Roeckner, E.; Manzini, E.; May, W.; Dufresne, J.-L.; Otterå, O. H.; van Vuuren, D. P.; Salas Y Melia, D.; Giorgetta, M. A.; Denvil, S.; Yang, S.; Fogli, P. G.; Körper, J.; Tjiputra, J. F.; Stehfest, E.; Hewitt, C. D.

    2011-11-01

    We present results from multiple comprehensive models used to simulate an aggressive mitigation scenario based on detailed results of an Integrated Assessment Model. The experiment employs ten global climate and Earth System models (GCMs and ESMs) and pioneers elements of the long-term experimental design for the forthcoming 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations pathways rather than carbon emissions are specified in all models, including five ESMs that contain interactive carbon cycles. Specified forcings also include minor greenhouse gas concentration pathways, ozone concentration, aerosols (via concentrations or precursor emissions) and land use change (in five models). The new aggressive mitigation scenario (E1), constructed using an integrated assessment model (IMAGE 2.4) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K, is studied alongside the medium-high non-mitigation scenario SRES A1B. Resulting twenty-first century global mean warming and precipitation changes for A1B are broadly consistent with previous studies. In E1 twenty-first century global warming remains below 2 K in most models, but global mean precipitation changes are higher than in A1B up to 2065 and consistently higher per degree of warming. The spread in global temperature and precipitation responses is partly attributable to inter-model variations in aerosol loading and representations of aerosol-related radiative forcing effects. Our study illustrates that the benefits of mitigation will not be realised in temperature terms until several decades after emissions reductions begin, and may vary considerably between regions. A subset of the models containing integrated carbon cycles agree that land and ocean sinks remove roughly half of present day anthropogenic carbon emissions from the atmosphere, and that anthropogenic carbon emissions must decrease by at least 50% by 2050 relative

  9. Global temperature change from the transport sectors: Historical development and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Berntsen, Terje; Lund, Marianne Tronstad; Myhre, Gunnar; Rypdal, Kristin

    2009-12-01

    Transport affects climate directly and indirectly through mechanisms that operate on very different timescales and cause both warming and cooling. We calculate contributions to the historical development in global mean temperature for the main transport sectors (road transport, aviation, shipping and rail) based on estimates of historical emissions and by applying knowledge about the various forcing mechanisms from detailed studies. We also calculate the development in future global mean temperature for four transport scenarios consistent with the IPCC SRES scenarios, one mitigation scenario and one sensitivity test scenario. There are large differences between the transport sectors in terms of sign and magnitude of temperature effects and with respect to the contributions from the long- and short-lived components. Since pre-industrial times, we calculate that transport in total has contributed 9% of total net man-made warming in the year 2000. The dominating contributor to warming is CO 2, followed by tropospheric O 3. By sector, road transport is the largest contributor; 11% of the warming in 2000 is due to this sector. Likewise, aviation has contributed 4% and rail ˜1%. Shipping, on the other hand, has caused a net cooling up to year 2000, with a contribution of -7%, due to the effects of SO 2 and NO x emissions. The total net contribution from the transport sectors to total man-made warming is ˜15% in 2050, and reaches 20% in 2100 in the A1 and B1 scenarios. For all scenarios and throughout the century, road transport is the dominating contributor to warming. Due to the anticipated reduction in sulphur content of fuels, the net effect of shipping changes from cooling to warming by the end of the century. Significant uncertainties are related to the estimates of historical and future net warming mainly due to cirrus, contrails and aerosol effects, as well as uncertainty in climate sensitivity.

  10. Mitigating flood exposure

    PubMed Central

    Shultz, James M; McLean, Andrew; Herberman Mash, Holly B; Rosen, Alexa; Kelly, Fiona; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Youngs Jr, Georgia A; Jensen, Jessica; Bernal, Oscar; Neria, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. In 2011, following heavy winter snowfall, two cities bordering two rivers in North Dakota, USA faced major flood threats. Flooding was foreseeable and predictable although the extent of risk was uncertain. One community, Fargo, situated in a shallow river basin, successfully mitigated and prevented flooding. For the other community, Minot, located in a deep river valley, prevention was not possible and downtown businesses and one-quarter of the homes were inundated, in the city’s worst flood on record. We aimed at contrasting the respective hazards, vulnerabilities, stressors, psychological risk factors, psychosocial consequences, and disaster risk reduction strategies under conditions where flood prevention was, and was not, possible. Methods. We applied the “trauma signature analysis” (TSIG) approach to compare the hazard profiles, identify salient disaster stressors, document the key components of disaster risk reduction response, and examine indicators of community resilience. Results. Two demographically-comparable communities, Fargo and Minot, faced challenging river flood threats and exhibited effective coordination across community sectors. We examined the implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies in situations where coordinated citizen action was able to prevent disaster impact (hazard avoidance) compared to the more common scenario when unpreventable disaster strikes, causing destruction, harm, and distress. Across a range of indicators, it is clear that successful mitigation diminishes both physical and psychological impact, thereby reducing the trauma signature of the event. Conclusion. In contrast to experience of historic flooding in Minot, the city of Fargo succeeded in reducing the trauma signature by way of reducing risk through mitigation. PMID:28228985

  11. Tropical peatland carbon dynamics simulated for scenarios of disturbance and restoration and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frolking, S. E.; Warren, M.; Dai, Z.; Kurnianto, S.; Hagen, S. C.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical peatlands contain a globally significant carbon pool. Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, mostly for conversion to industrial oil palm or pulp and paper plantations. The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increasing attention in recent years as persistent greenhouse gas emissions can be avoided or decreased if peatlands remain intact or are rehabilitated. In addition, peatland conservation or rehabilitation for climate mitigation also includes multiple co-benefits such as maintenance of ecosystem services, biodiversity, and air quality from reduced fire occurrence. Inventory guidelines and methodologies have only recently become available, and are based on few data from a limited number of sites. Few heuristic tools are available to evaluate the impact of management practices on carbon dynamics in tropical peatlands, and the potential climate mitigation benefits of peatland restoration. We used a process based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore the C dynamics of several peatland management trajectories represented by hypothetical scenarios, within the context of simulated 21st century climate change. All scenarios with land use, including those with optimal restoration, simulate C loss over the 21st century, with C losses ranging from 10% to essentially 100% of pre-disturbance values. Fire, either prescribed as part of a crop rotation cycle, or stochastic occurrences in sub-optimally managed degraded land can be the dominant C-loss pathway, particularly in the drier climate scenario we tested. A single 25-year oil palm rotation, with a prescribed initial burn, lost 40-50 kg C/m2, equivalent to accumulation during the previous 500 years, 10-30% of which was restored in 75 years of optimal restoration. Our results indicate that even under the most optimistic scenario of hydrological and forest restoration and the wettest climate regime, only about one-third of the carbon

  12. Hydrological projections of climate change scenarios in the Lena and the Mackenzie basins: modeling and uncertainty issues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gelfan, Alexander; Gustafsson, David; Motovilov, Yury; Arheimer, Berit; Kalugin, Andrei; Krylenko, Inna; Lavrenov, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    The ECOMAG and the HYPE regional hydrological models were setup to assess possible impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime of two pan-Arctic great drainage basins: the Lena and the Mackenzie rivers. We firstly assessed the reliability of the hydrological models to reproduce the historical streamflow series and analyse the hydrological projections from the climate change scenarios. The impacts were assessed in three 30-year periods: early- (2006-2035), mid- (2036-2065) and end-century (2070-2099) using an ensemble of five GCMs and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Results show, particularly, that the basins react with multi-year delay to changes in the RCP2.6 mitigation (peak-and-decline) scenario, and consequently to the potential mitigation measures. Then we assessed the hydrological projections' uncertainty, which is caused by the GCM's and RCP's variabilities, and indicated that the uncertainty rises with the time horizon of the projection and, generally, the uncertainty interval is wider for Mackenzie than for Lena. We finally compare the potential future hydrological impacts predicted based on the GCM-scenario ensemble approach and the delta-change transformation method of the historical observations. We found that the latter method can produce useful information about the climate change impact in the great Arctic rivers, at least for the nearest decades.

  13. Comparing the impacts of mitigation and non-mitigation on mountain pine beetle populations.

    PubMed

    Coggins, Sam B; Coops, Nicholas C; Wulder, Michael A; Bater, Christopher W; Ortlepp, Stephanie M

    2011-01-01

    Mountain pine beetles, Dendroctonus ponderosae (Hopkins) attack and can ultimately kill individuals and groups of pine trees, specifically lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex. Loud var. latifolia Engl.). In British Columbia, beetle attack has increased from 164 000 ha in 1999 to over 13 million ha in 2008. Mitigation efforts can play a key role in addressing the impact beetle infestations can have on the forested landscape. In this research, the impact of mitigation on a mountain pine beetle infestation is examined within a network of 28 research plots where sanitation harvesting was completed (10 mitigated plots) and not completed (18 unmitigated plots). Three forest stand level modelling scenarios which predict the number of attacked trees, based on current infestation within the plots, were utilized to compare the differences between mitigated and non-mitigated plots. In the first scenario in the non-mitigated plots, 125 trees were infested after 10 years, while in the mitigated plots no trees were infested in the same time period. The second scenario indicates the level of mitigation required to suppress beetle infestations where the proportion of mitigated trees was calculated for each plot by counting the residual attack and the number of mitigated trees. The average mitigation rate over all plots of 43% (range 0-100%) is not sufficient to provide control. In the non-mitigated plots, the average population expansion rate was 5 (range of 0-18) which requires a detection accuracy of 74% to reliably detect infestation. The third scenario estimated the length of time required for ongoing detection, monitoring, and mitigation to bring an infestation under control. If mitigation efforts were maintained at the current rate of 43%, the beetle population would not be adequately controlled. However, when aided by continued detection and monitoring of attacked trees, mitigation rates greater than 50% are sufficient to control infestations, especially with

  14. Efficient and Equitable Design of Wildfire Mitigation Programs

    Treesearch

    Thomas P. Holmes; Karen L. Abt; Robert Huggett; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

    2007-01-01

    Natural resource economists have addresssed the economic effienciency of expenditures on wildfire mitigation for nearly a century (Gope and Gorte 1979). Beginning with the work of Sparhawk (1925), the theory of efficent wildfire mitigation developed alolng conceptual lines drawn form neoclassical economics. The objective of the traditional least-cost-plus-loss model...

  15. Potential contribution of wind energy to climate change mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barthelmie, R. J.; Pryor, S. C.

    2014-08-01

    It is still possible to limit greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the 2 °C warming threshold for dangerous climate change. Here we explore the potential role of expanded wind energy deployment in climate change mitigation efforts. At present, most turbines are located in extra-tropical Asia, Europe and North America, where climate projections indicate continuity of the abundant wind resource during this century. Scenarios from international agencies indicate that this virtually carbon-free source could supply 10-31% of electricity worldwide by 2050 (refs , ). Using these projections within Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate forcing scenarios, we show that dependent on the precise RCP followed, pursuing a moderate wind energy deployment plan by 2050 delays crossing the 2 °C warming threshold by 1-6 years. Using more aggressive wind turbine deployment strategies delays 2 °C warming by 3-10 years, or in the case of RCP4.5 avoids passing this threshold altogether. To maximize these climate benefits, deployment of non-fossil electricity generation must be coupled with reduced energy use.

  16. Protected areas' role in climate-change mitigation.

    PubMed

    Melillo, Jerry M; Lu, Xiaoliang; Kicklighter, David W; Reilly, John M; Cai, Yongxia; Sokolov, Andrei P

    2016-03-01

    Globally, 15.5 million km(2) of land are currently identified as protected areas, which provide society with many ecosystem services including climate-change mitigation. Combining a global database of protected areas, a reconstruction of global land-use history, and a global biogeochemistry model, we estimate that protected areas currently sequester 0.5 Pg C annually, which is about one fifth of the carbon sequestered by all land ecosystems annually. Using an integrated earth systems model to generate climate and land-use scenarios for the twenty-first century, we project that rapid climate change, similar to high-end projections in IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, would cause the annual carbon sequestration rate in protected areas to drop to about 0.3 Pg C by 2100. For the scenario with both rapid climate change and extensive land-use change driven by population and economic pressures, 5.6 million km(2) of protected areas would be converted to other uses, and carbon sequestration in the remaining protected areas would drop to near zero by 2100.

  17. Interpreting global energy and emission scenarios: Methods for understanding and communicating policy insights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hummel, Leslie

    Energy scenarios for the 21st century powerfully inform perceptions and expectations in the minds of energy investors, consumers, and policy-makers. Scenarios that stabilize global warming call for large-scale energy technology transitions, fueling debates about the relative roles for a range of technologies including nuclear power, carbon sequestration, biofuels, solar power, and efficient end-use devices. In the last decade, hundreds of scenarios have been published by more than a dozen research teams using different models, baselines and mitigation targets. Despite the efforts to summarize findings in a few major assessments, a gap in understanding remains at a critical science-policy juncture between scenario analysts and the audiences their work is designed to serve. Addressing the issue requires an interdisciplinary approach that incorporates knowledge and methods from the fields of energy engineering, economics, climate science, and policy analysis. This research applies two analytical techniques to investigate the effects of an imposed climate policy on the underlying energy system. The first disentangles the effect of a policy intervention on key demographic and technology drivers of fossil fuel use, and the second decomposes reductions in emissions by specific energy technology types. Because the techniques may be applied to any energy scenario with technology detail, this study demonstrates their application to ten sample stabilization scenarios from three leading models. Revealing the importance of data and assumptions overlooked or not well disclosed in the past, the results highlight an implausibly high pressure on energy supply innovations while the potential for energy efficiency improvements is systematically underestimated. The findings are significant to both scenario analysts and the decision-makers in public policy and private investment who are influenced by their work.

  18. Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds.

    PubMed

    Meller, Laura; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pironon, Samuel; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Hof, Andries; Cabeza, Mar

    2015-07-01

    Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land-use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4°C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2°C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land-use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union.

  19. Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds

    PubMed Central

    Meller, Laura; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pironon, Samuel; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Hof, Andries; Cabeza, Mar

    2015-01-01

    Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land-use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4°C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2°C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land-use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union. PMID:26681982

  20. Comparison of turbulence mitigation algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozacik, Stephen T.; Paolini, Aaron; Sherman, Ariel; Bonnett, James; Kelmelis, Eric

    2017-07-01

    When capturing imagery over long distances, atmospheric turbulence often degrades the data, especially when observation paths are close to the ground or in hot environments. These issues manifest as time-varying scintillation and warping effects that decrease the effective resolution of the sensor and reduce actionable intelligence. In recent years, several image processing approaches to turbulence mitigation have shown promise. Each of these algorithms has different computational requirements, usability demands, and degrees of independence from camera sensors. They also produce different degrees of enhancement when applied to turbulent imagery. Additionally, some of these algorithms are applicable to real-time operational scenarios while others may only be suitable for postprocessing workflows. EM Photonics has been developing image-processing-based turbulence mitigation technology since 2005. We will compare techniques from the literature with our commercially available, real-time, GPU-accelerated turbulence mitigation software. These comparisons will be made using real (not synthetic), experimentally obtained data for a variety of conditions, including varying optical hardware, imaging range, subjects, and turbulence conditions. Comparison metrics will include image quality, video latency, computational complexity, and potential for real-time operation. Additionally, we will present a technique for quantitatively comparing turbulence mitigation algorithms using real images of radial resolution targets.

  1. Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zhen; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Stenke, Andrea; Li, Xin; Hodson, Elke L; Zhu, Gaofeng; Huang, Chunlin; Poulter, Benjamin

    2017-09-05

    Wetland methane (CH4) emissions are the largest natural source in the global CH4 budget, contributing to roughly one third of total natural and anthropogenic emissions. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after CO2, CH4 is strongly associated with climate feedbacks. However, due to the paucity of data, wetland CH4 feedbacks were not fully assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The degree to which future expansion of wetlands and CH4 emissions will evolve and consequently drive climate feedbacks is thus a question of major concern. Here we present an ensemble estimate of wetland CH4 emissions driven by 38 general circulation models for the 21st century. We find that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH4 emissions will dominate anthropogenic CH4 emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6). Depending on scenarios, wetland CH4 feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean radiative forcing of 0.04 W·m(-2) to 0.19 W·m(-2) by the end of the 21st century. Under the "worst-case" RCP8.5 scenario, with no climate mitigation, boreal CH4 emissions are enhanced by 18.05 Tg to 41.69 Tg, due to thawing of inundated areas during the cold season (December to May) and rising temperature, while tropical CH4 emissions accelerate with a total increment of 48.36 Tg to 87.37 Tg by 2099. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH4 feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 °C.

  2. A Scenario-Based Approach to Mitigating the Insider Threat

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-05-01

    your compliance requirements is crucial to your business success . You can get that level of control from CA Technologies Content-Aware Identity and...addressing your compliance requirements is crucial to your business success . You can get that level of control from CA Technologies Content-Aware Identity and

  3. Quantifying the role of Northern Eurasia in global CO2, CH4, and water dynamics during the 21st Century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuang, Qianlai; Kicklighter, David; Cai, Yongxia; Tchebakova, Nadja; Melillo, Jerry; Reilly, John; Sokolov, Andrei; Sirin, Andrey

    2015-04-01

    The largest increase of surface air temperature and related climate extremes have occurred in Northern Eurasia in recent decades, and are projected to continue during the 21st century. The changing climate will affect biogeography, land cover and biogeochemical cycles in the region, which in turn, will affect how global land use evolves in the future as humans attempt to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Regional land-use changes, however, also depend on pressures imposed by the global economy and environmental changes. Feedbacks from future land-use change will further modify regional and global biogeochemistry and climate. This study uses a suite of linked biogeography, biogeochemical, economic, and climate models to explore how climate-induced vegetation shifts in Northern Eurasia will influence land-use change and carbon cycling across the globe during the 21st century. We find that, at the global scale, while more land will be allocated towards food and biofuel crops due to increasing population and associated economic development, the climate-induced vegetation shifts in Northern Eurasia also significantly affect global land use and result in a global cumulative carbon sink of about 63 Pg C under the policy scenario that limits CO2-equivelent greenhouse gas concentrations to 480 ppmv by the end of the 21st century. In comparison with the policy scenario, under a no-policy scenario where CO2-equivelent greenhouse gas concentrations reach 870 ppmv by the end of 21st century, the global cumulative carbon sink is 11 Pg C less mainly due to carbon lost from global grasslands. Cumulative evapotranspiration from global terrestrial ecosystems considering global land-use changes with vegetation shifts in northern Eurasia is 8.05 and 8.35 million km3 for the policy and no-policy scenarios, respectively. In the presentation, we will also discuss our analysis on CH4 emissions from northern Eurasia in response to the changes of land cover and climate during this

  4. Space collision threat mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zatezalo, Aleksandar; Stipanović, Dušan; Mehra, Raman K.; Pham, Khanh

    2014-06-01

    Mitigation of possible collision threats to current and future operations in space environments is an important an challenging task considering high nonlinearity of orbital dynamics and discrete measurement updates. Such discrete observations are relatively scarce with respect to space dynamics including possible unintentional or intentional rocket propulsion based maneuvers even in scenarios when measurement collections are focused to a one single target of interest. In our paper, this problem is addressed in terms of multihypothesis and multimodel estimation in conjunction with multi-agent multigoal game theoretic guaranteed evasion strategies. Collision threat estimation is formulated using conditional probabilities of time dependent hypotheses and spacecraft controls which are computed using Liapunov-like approach. Based on this formulation, time dependent functional forms of multi-objective utility functions are derived given threat collision risk levels. For demonstrating developed concepts, numerical methods are developed using nonlinear filtering methodology for updating hypothesis sets and corresponding conditional probabilities. Space platform associated sensor resources are managed using previously developed and demonstrated information-theoretic objective functions and optimization methods. Consequently, estimation and numerical methods are evaluated and demonstrated on a realistic Low Earth Orbit collision encounter.

  5. The analysis of historical earthquakes of the North Anatolian Fault in the Marmara Region, Turkey for the last 15 centuries based on intensity and continuous Coulomb scenarios: Implications for the fault geometry and the interaction of individual earthqua

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yaltırak, Cenk; Şahin, Murat

    2016-04-01

    In this study we evaluated the historical earthquakes of the Marmara Region totally in three-stages. In first stage, historical earthquakes were compiled from the available catalogues and classified according to their spatial distribution, whereas only the ones, related with the active northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) were selected. Then, the next phase of classification was made to relate historical data to the ancient and historical settlements, for which a kind of shake map was produced for each event. In the second stage, three different fault models, suggested for the geometry of the NAF in the Marmara Region, were integrated into a GIS database. Mw magnitudes were calculated for each fault segment by using lengths, seismogenic depths, and slip-rates of fault segments. In the third stage, the revised digital geological map of the Marmara Region were compiled based on 1:500k conventional maps and were used to estimate the Vs30 distribution within a grid of 750x750 m. Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) maps were produced for each earthquake scenario, depending on the geometry of different fault models, calculated model magnitudes and intensity distributions. Moreover, we tested the surface ruptures of each earthquake scenarios by using the Coulomb stress change model for historical data covering a time era between AD 478 and 2016 in assumption with a constant horizontal slip rate of 19 mma-1 for all fault segments. As conclusion, the horsetail-fault geometry (Yaltırak, 2002) among all 3 fault models yielded the best fit to the distribution of intensities and coulomb models.

  6. Efficient and sustainable deployment of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in mitigation pathways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, E.; Moriyama, R.; Kurosawa, A.

    2016-12-01

    Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise well below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions at the end of the 21st century. Also, in the Paris agreement from COP21, it is denoted "a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century" which could require large scale deployment of negative emissions technologies later in this century. Because of the additional requirement for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of large-scale BECCS. In this study, we present possible development strategies of low carbon scenarios that consider interaction of economically efficient deployment of bioenergy and/or BECCS technologies, biophysical limit of bioenergy productivity, and food production. In the evaluations, detailed bioenergy representations, including bioenergy feedstocks and conversion technologies with and without CCS, are implemented in an integrated assessment model GRAPE. Also, to overcome a general discrepancy about yield development between 'top-down' integrate assessment models and 'bottom-up' estimates, we applied yields changes of food and bioenergy crops consistent with process-based biophysical models; PRYSBI-2 (Process-Based Regional-Scale Yield Simulator with Bayesian Inference) for food crops, and SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for bioenergy crops in changing climate conditions. Using the framework, economically viable strategy for implementing sustainable BECCS are evaluated.

  7. Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise.

    PubMed

    Stott, Peter A; Kettleborough, J A

    2002-04-18

    Predictions of temperature rise over the twenty-first century are necessarily uncertain, both because the sensitivity of the climate system to changing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, as well as the rate of ocean heat uptake, is poorly quantified and because future influences on climate-of anthropogenic as well as natural origin-are difficult to predict. Past observations have been used to help constrain the range of uncertainties in future warming rates, but under the assumption of a particular scenario of future emissions. Here we investigate the relative importance of the uncertainty in climate response to a particular emissions scenario versus the uncertainty caused by the differences between future emissions scenarios for our estimates of future change. We present probabilistic forecasts of global-mean temperatures for four representative scenarios for future emissions, obtained with a comprehensive climate model. We find that, in the absence of policies to mitigate climate change, global-mean temperature rise is insensitive to the differences in the emissions scenarios over the next four decades. We also show that in the future, as the signal of climate change emerges further, the predictions will become better constrained.

  8. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  9. Hydrological scenarios for two selected Alpine catchments for the 21st century using a stochastic weather generator and enhanced process understanding for modelling of seasonal snow and glacier melt for improved water resources management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strasser, Ulrich; Schneeberger, Klaus; Dabhi, Hetal; Dubrovsky, Martin; Hanzer, Florian; Marke, Thomas; Oberguggenberger, Michael; Rössler, Ole; Schmieder, Jan; Rotach, Mathias; Stötter, Johann; Weingartner, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    The overall objective of HydroGeM³ is to quantify and assess both water demand and water supply in two coupled human-environment mountain systems, i.e. Lütschine in Switzerland and Ötztaler Ache in Austria. Special emphasis is laid on the analysis of possible future seasonal water scarcity. The hydrological response of high Alpine catchments is characterised by a strong seasonal variability with low runoff in winter and high runoff in spring and summer. Climate change is expected to cause a seasonal shift of the runoff regime and thus it has significant impact on both amount and timing of the release of the available water resources, and thereof, possible future water conflicts. In order to identify and quantify the contribution of snow and ice melt as well as rain to runoff, streamflow composition will be analysed with natural tracers. The results of the field investigations will help to improve the snow and ice melt and runoff modules of two selected hydrological models (i.e. AMUNDSEN and WaSiM) which are used to investigate the seasonal water availability under current and future climate conditions. Together, they comprise improved descriptions of boundary layer and surface melt processes (AMUNDSEN), and of streamflow runoff generation (WaSiM). Future meteorological forcing for the modelling until the end of the century will be provided by both a stochastic multi-site weather generator, and downscaled climate model output. Both approches will use EUROCORDEX data as input. The water demand in the selected study areas is quantified for the relevant societal sectors, e.g. agriculture, hydropower generation and (winter) tourism. The comparison of water availability and water demand under current and future climate conditions will allow the identification of possible seasonal bottlenecks of future water supply and resulting conflicts. Thus these investigations can provide a quantitative basis for the development of strategies for sustainable water management in

  10. Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation.

    PubMed

    Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David L; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

    2013-01-03

    For more than a decade, the target of keeping global warming below 2 °C has been a key focus of the international climate debate. In response, the scientific community has published a number of scenario studies that estimate the costs of achieving such a target. Producing these estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well known, but poorly quantified, uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on the one hand, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other hand, has spent years improving its understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases. This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty in the cost of mitigation scenarios but has been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in only a rudimentary manner, that is, for equilibrium conditions. Here we bridge this gap between the two research communities by generating distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific values, taking into account uncertainties in four factors: geophysical, technological, social and political. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by geophysical uncertainties, social factors influencing future energy demand and, lastly, technological uncertainties surrounding the availability of greenhouse gas mitigation options. Our information on temperature risk and mitigation costs provides crucial information for policy-making, because it clarifies the relative importance of mitigation costs, energy demand and the timing of global action in reducing the risk of exceeding a global temperature increase of 2 °C, or other limits such as 3 °C or 1.5

  11. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  12. Potential for Carbon Sequestration in European Soils: Preliminary Estimates for Five Scenarios Using Results from Long-Term Experiments

    DOE Data Explorer

    Smith, P. [University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK; Powlson, D. [University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK; Glendining, M. [University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK; Smith, J. [University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK

    2003-01-01

    One of the main options for carbon mitigation identified by the IPCC is the sequestration of carbon in soils. In this paper we use statistical relationships derived from European long-term experiments to explore the potential for carbon sequestration in soils in the European Union. We examine five scenarios, namely (a) the amendment of arable soils with animal manure, (b) the amendment of arable soils with sewage sludge, (c) the incorporation of cereal straw into the soils in which it was grown, (d) the afforestation of surplus arable land through natural woodland regeneration, and (e) extensification of agriculture through ley-arable farming. Our calculations suggest only limited potential to increase soil carbon stocks over the next century by addition of animal manure, sewage sludge or straw (<15 Tg C y–1), but greater potential through extensification of agriculture (~40 Tg C y–1) or through the afforestation of surplus arable land (~50 Tg C y–1). We estimate that extensification could increase the total soil carbon stock of the European Union by 17%. Afforestation of 30% of present arable land would increase soil carbon stocks by about 8% over a century and would substitute up to 30 Tg C y–1 of fossil fuel carbon if the wood were used as biofuel. However, even the afforestation scenario, with the greatest potential for carbon mitigation, can sequester only 0.8% of annual global anthropogenic CO2-carbon. Our figures suggest that, although efforts in temperate agriculture can contribute to global carbon mitigation, the potential is small compared to that available through reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions by halting tropical and sub-tropical deforestation or by reducing fossil fuel burning.

  13. Implications of climate change mitigation for sustainable development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jakob, Michael; Steckel, Jan Christoph

    2016-10-01

    Evaluating the trade-offs between the risks related to climate change, climate change mitigation as well as co-benefits requires an integrated scenarios approach to sustainable development. We outline a conceptual multi-objective framework to assess climate policies that takes into account climate impacts, mitigation costs, water and food availability, technological risks of nuclear energy and carbon capture and sequestration as well as co-benefits of reducing local air pollution and increasing energy security. This framework is then employed as an example to different climate change mitigation scenarios generated with integrated assessment models. Even though some scenarios encompass considerable challenges for sustainability, no scenario performs better or worse than others in all dimensions, pointing to trade-offs between different dimensions of sustainable development. For this reason, we argue that these trade-offs need to be evaluated in a process of public deliberation that includes all relevant social actors.

  14. Linking Mid-century Targets to Long-Term Climate Change Outcomes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, J. S.; Chameides, W. L.; O'Neill, B. C.

    2006-12-01

    We conducted a probabilistic analysis of the range of long-term climate options corresponding to various interim climate targets (i.e. mid-21st century targets for equivalent CO2 concentration). Interim targets have been proposed to bridge the gap between short- and long-term targets, address concern about the rate of temperature change, and provide guidance in planning for energy infrastructure while improved scientific understanding and political agreement on a long-term climate target have yet to be achieved. We focused on uncertainties in the climate system (including climate sensitivity, ocean diffusivity, and aerosol forcing) rather than in mitigation options in this analysis. We used the MAGICC model to estimate the mid-century global mean greenhouse gas concentrations and rates of temperature change as well as the long-term temperatures associated with a wide range of emissions scenarios. Our results allow the user to determine the rate of emissions reductions necessary after the interim target year (e.g. 2050) to achieve a particular long-term temperature target, for a range of interim concentrations or emissions and for a range of probability levels. For example, we found that for a mid-century target of 450 ppm, staying below an average temperature over the 22nd century of 3 degrees above pre-industrial with 75% probability would require post-2050 emissions reduction of 1%/year; a mid-century target of 550 ppm would require emissions reduction of more than 3.5%/year for the same temperature increase. We also conducted separate analyses considering different scenarios for emissions from deforestation and considering distinct rates of emissions reductions for non-CO2 gases versus CO2. Finally, we compare the probabilistic range of temperature projections using estimates of transient climate response (TCR) to that using the multiple climate parameters.

  15. MITIGATION IMPACT SCREENING TOOL (MIST) | Science ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    MIST is intended to provide a back of the envelope, qualitative indication of the likely impacts of heat island mitigation strategies averaged at the city-scale. To run MIST, users follow three basic steps: 1. Select the city to model (240 available) 2. Define the mitigation strategy to test 3. Estimate impacts on meteorology, air quality, and energy The mitigation strategies investigated include increasing urban albedo, or increasing urban vegetative cover, or a combined approach. MIST also allows investigation of average temperature reduction and produces estimates of the resulting impacts on ozone and energy consumption. If a desired level of temperature reduction is identified, MIST allows the user to explore combinations of mitigation strategies that could achieve this reduction. MIST is intended to provide local-level air quality officials and nongovernment groups with qualitatively accurate assessments of the likely impacts of heat island mitigation strategies averaged at the city-scale. While results are estimated using state-of-the-science modeling tools, the results derived from this tool are qualitative in nature. The research upon which MIST is based necessarily incorporates a number of assumptions that help make the results applicable for a large number of cities and a variety of mitigation scenarios.

  16. Space options for tropical cyclone hazard mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dicaire, Isabelle; Nakamura, Ryoko; Arikawa, Yoshihisa; Okada, Kazuyuki; Itahashi, Takamasa; Summerer, Leopold

    2015-02-01

    This paper investigates potential space options for mitigating the impact of tropical cyclones on cities and civilians. Ground-based techniques combined with space-based remote sensing instrumentation are presented together with space-borne concepts employing space solar power technology. Two space-borne mitigation options are considered: atmospheric warming based on microwave irradiation and laser-induced cloud seeding based on laser power transfer. Finally technology roadmaps dedicated to the space-borne options are presented, including a detailed discussion on the technological viability and technology readiness level of our proposed systems. Based on these assessments, the space-borne cyclone mitigation options presented in this paper may be established in a quarter of a century.

  17. Using land to mitigate climate change: hitting the target, recognizing the trade-offs.

    PubMed

    Reilly, John; Melillo, Jerry; Cai, Yongxia; Kicklighter, David; Gurgel, Angelo; Paltsev, Sergey; Cronin, Timothy; Sokolov, Andrei; Schlosser, Adam

    2012-06-05

    Land can be used in several ways to mitigate climate change, but especially under changing environmental conditions there may be implications for food prices. Using an integrated global system model, we explore the roles that these land-use options can play in a global mitigation strategy to stabilize Earth's average temperature within 2 °C of the preindustrial level and their impacts on agriculture. We show that an ambitious global Energy-Only climate policy that includes biofuels would likely not achieve the 2 °C target. A thought-experiment where the world ideally prices land carbon fluxes combined with biofuels (Energy+Land policy) gets the world much closer. Land could become a large net carbon sink of about 178 Pg C over the 21st century with price incentives in the Energy+Land scenario. With land carbon pricing but without biofuels (a No-Biofuel scenario) the carbon sink is nearly identical to the case with biofuels, but emissions from energy are somewhat higher, thereby results in more warming. Absent such incentives, land is either a much smaller net carbon sink (+37 Pg C - Energy-Only policy) or a net source (-21 Pg C - No-Policy). The significant trade-off with this integrated land-use approach is that prices for agricultural products rise substantially because of mitigation costs borne by the sector and higher land prices. Share of income spent on food for wealthier regions continues to fall, but for the poorest regions, higher food prices lead to a rising share of income spent on food.

  18. Development of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options for Alberta's Energy Sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subramanyam, Veena

    Alberta is the third largest economy in Canada and is expected to grow significantly in the coming decade. The energy sector plays a major role in Alberta's economy. The objective of this research is to develop various greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigations scenarios in the energy demand and supply sectors for the Province of Alberta. This is done through an energy-environment planning and forecasting tool called Long Range Energy Alternative Planning system model (LEAP). By using LEAP, a sankey diagram for energy and emission flows for the Province of Alberta has been developed. A reference case also called as business-as-usual scenario was developed for a study period of 25 years (2005-2030). The GHG mitigation scenarios encompassed various demand and supply side scenarios. In the energy conversion sector, mitigation scenarios for renewable power generation and inclusion of supercritical, ultra-supercritical and integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plants were investigated. In the oil and gas sector, GHG mitigation scenarios with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) option were considered. In Alberta's residential and commercial sector 4-6 MT of CO2 equivalents per year of GHG mitigation could be achieved with efficiency improvement. In the industrial sector up to 40 MT of CO2 equivalents per year of GHG reduction could be achieved with efficiency improvement. In the energy conversion sector large GHG mitigation potential lies in the oil and gas sector and also in power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) option. The total GHG mitigation possible in the supply side option is between 20--70 MT CO2 equivalents per year.

  19. Advanced insider threat mitigation workshop instructional materials

    SciTech Connect

    Gibbs, Philip; Larsen, Robert; O Brien, Mike; Edmunds, Tom

    2008-11-01

    Insiders represent a formidable threat to nuclear facilities. This set of workshop materials covers methodologies to analyze and approaches to mitigate the threat of an insider attempting abrupt and protracted theft of nuclear materials. This particular set of materials is a n update of a January 2008 version to add increased emphasis on Material Control and Accounting and its role with respect to protracted insider nuclear material theft scenarios.

  20. 300 Area Building Retention Evaluation Mitigation Plan

    SciTech Connect

    D. J. McBride

    2007-07-03

    Evaluate the long-term retention of several facilities associated with the PNNL Capability Replacement Laboratory and other Hanfor mission needs. WCH prepared a mitigation plan for three scenarios with different release dates for specific buildings. The evaluations present a proposed plan for providing utility services to retained facilities in support of a long-term (+20 year) lifespan in addition to temporary services to buildings with specified delayed release dates.

  1. A conceptual framework for hydropeaking mitigation.

    PubMed

    Bruder, Andreas; Tonolla, Diego; Schweizer, Steffen P; Vollenweider, Stefan; Langhans, Simone D; Wüest, Alfred

    2016-10-15

    Hydropower plants are an important source of renewable energy. In the near future, high-head storage hydropower plants will gain further importance as a key element of large-scale electricity production systems. However, these power plants can cause hydropeaking which is characterized by intense unnatural discharge fluctuations in downstream river reaches. Consequences on environmental conditions in these sections are diverse and include changes to the hydrology, hydraulics and sediment regime on very short time scales. These altered conditions affect river ecosystems and biota, for instance due to drift and stranding of fishes and invertebrates. Several structural and operational measures exist to mitigate hydropeaking and the adverse effects on ecosystems, but estimating and predicting their ecological benefit remains challenging. We developed a conceptual framework to support the ecological evaluation of hydropeaking mitigation measures based on current mitigation projects in Switzerland and the scientific literature. We refined this framework with an international panel of hydropeaking experts. The framework is based on a set of indicators, which covers all hydrological phases of hydropeaking and the most important affected abiotic and biotic processes. Effects of mitigation measures on these indicators can be predicted quantitatively using prediction tools such as discharge scenarios and numerical habitat models. Our framework allows a comparison of hydropeaking effects among alternative mitigation measures, to the pre-mitigation situation, and to reference river sections. We further identified key issues that should be addressed to increase the efficiency of current and future projects. They include the spatial and temporal context of mitigation projects, the interactions of river morphology with hydropeaking effects, and the role of appropriate monitoring to evaluate the success of mitigation projects.

  2. Climate change scenarios and key climate indices in the Swiss Alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zubler, Elias; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Frei, Christoph; Liniger, Mark; Scherrer, Simon; Appenzeller, Christof

    2013-04-01

    For climate adaption and to support climate mitigation policy it is of outermost importance to demonstrate the consequences of climate change on a local level and in user oriented quantities. Here, a framework is presented to apply the Swiss national climate change scenarios CH2011 to climate indices with direct relevance to applications, such as tourism, transportation, agriculture and health. This framework provides results on a high spatial and temporal resolution and can also be applied in mountainous regions such as the Alps. Results are shown for some key indices, such as the number of summer days and tropical nights, growing season length, number of frost days, heating and cooling degree days, and the number of days with fresh snow. Particular focus is given to changes in the vertical distribution for the future periods 2020-2049, 2045-2074 and 2070-2099 relative to the reference period 1980-2009 for the A1B, A2 and RCP3PD scenario. The number of days with fresh snow is approximated using a combination of temperature and precipitation as proxies. Some findings for the latest scenario period are: (1) a doubling of the number of summer days by the end of the century under the business-as-usual scenario A2, (2) tropical nights appear above 1500 m asl, (3) the number of frost days may be reduced by more than 3 months at altitudes higher than 2500 m, (4) an overall reduction of heating degree days of about 30% by the end of the century, but on the other hand an increase in cooling degree days in warm seasons, and (5) the number of days with fresh snow tends to go towards zero at low altitudes. In winter, there is little change in snowfall above 2000 m asl (roughly -3 days) in all scenarios. The largest impact on snowfall is found along the Northern Alpine flank and the Jura (-10 days or roughly -50% in A1B for the winter season). It is also highlighted that the future projections for all indices strongly depend on the chosen scenario and on model uncertainty

  3. Planning for Crew Exercise for Deep Space Mission Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, E. Cherice; Ryder, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Exercise which is necessary for maintaining crew health on-orbit and preparing the crew for return to 1G can be challenging to incorporate into spaceflight vehicles. Deep space missions will require further understanding of the physiological response to microgravity, understanding appropriate mitigations, and designing the exercise systems to effectively provide mitigations, and integrating effectively into vehicle design with a focus to support planned mission scenarios. Recognizing and addressing the constraints and challenges can facilitate improved vehicle design and exercise system incorporation.

  4. Effects of climate change adaptation scenarios on perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.

    2012-04-01

    Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, like mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This study addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to reproduce spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century under different emissions scenarios? (3) How would perceived drought characteristics evolve under theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-year multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France (Vidal et al., 2010). Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI), respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well reproduced by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century under all considered emissions scenarios, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals. The two scenarios differ by the way the transient adaptation is performed for a given date in the future, with reference to the normals over either the previous 30-year window ("retrospective

  5. Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foley, A. M.; Holden, P. B.; Edwards, N. R.; Mercure, J.-F.; Salas, P.; Pollitt, H.; Chewpreecha, U.

    2016-02-01

    We present a carbon-cycle-climate modelling framework using model emulation, designed for integrated assessment modelling, which introduces a new emulator of the carbon cycle (GENIEem). We demonstrate that GENIEem successfully reproduces the CO2 concentrations of the Representative Concentration Pathways when forced with the corresponding CO2 emissions and non-CO2 forcing. To demonstrate its application as part of the integrated assessment framework, we use GENIEem along with an emulator of the climate (PLASIM-ENTSem) to evaluate global CO2 concentration levels and spatial temperature and precipitation response patterns resulting from CO2 emission scenarios. These scenarios are modelled using a macroeconometric model (E3MG) coupled to a model of technology substitution dynamics (FTT), and represent different emissions reduction policies applied solely in the electricity sector, without mitigation in the rest of the economy. The effect of cascading uncertainty is apparent, but despite uncertainties, it is clear that in all scenarios, global mean temperatures in excess of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels are projected by the end of the century. Our approach also highlights the regional temperature and precipitation patterns associated with the global mean temperature change occurring in these scenarios, enabling more robust impacts modelling and emphasizing the necessity of focusing on spatial patterns in addition to global mean temperature change.

  6. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  7. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  8. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  9. The impacts of altered tropical cyclone activity on climate mitigation strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; LePage, Y.; Patel, P.; Chini, L. P.; Thomson, A. M.; Clarke, L.; Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Chambers, J. Q.; Negron Juarez, R. I.

    2012-12-01

    There is growing evidence that anthropogenic climate change may alter patterns of tropical cyclone frequency, intensity and spatial distribution, which in turn will alter the carbon balance of terrestrial systems in the large regions impacted by these storms. Recent studies project up to a doubling of major storms (Saffir-Simpson Scale 3-5) over the next century. Single large storms have been shown to be capable of causing committed carbon emissions equivalent to the annual U.S. carbon sink. These changes have the potential to affect climate mitigation strategies, most of which rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink to restrain the accumulation of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Altered patterns of disturbances and the resulting changes to the carbon balance of terrestrial systems could impact the magnitude of emissions to mitigate, the economic value of ecosystem carbon storage, and thus future land-use patterns, food prices and energy technology. Here we investigate the potential consequences of altered tropical cyclone activity on climate mitigation strategies using a fully integrated model (iED) that links advanced ecological and socio-economic models. The model combines the regional integrated assessment algorithms of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), with the climate- sensitive ecosystem and carbon modeling in the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, and the land-use mapping algorithms of the Global Land-use Model (GLM). We explore a range of scenarios of altered future tropical cyclone frequency, intensity and spatial pattern, the resulting effects on the terrestrial carbon balance, and the coupled effects on the food and energy sector under a range of future climate mitigation goals.

  10. Mitigation Action Plan

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-02-01

    This Mitigation Action Plan (MAP) focuses on mitigation commitments stated in the Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) and the Record of Decision (ROD) for the Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 1 (NPR-1). Specific commitments and mitigation implementation actions are listed in Appendix A-Mitigation Actions, and form the central focus of this MAP. They will be updated as needed to allow for organizational, regulatory, or policy changes. It is the intent of DOE to comply with all applicable federal, state, and local environmental, safety, and health laws and regulations. Eighty-six specific commitments were identified in the SEIS and associated ROD which pertain to continued operation of NPR-1 with petroleum production at the Maximum Efficient Rate (MER). The mitigation measures proposed are expected to reduce impacts as much as feasible, however, as experience is gained in actual implementation of these measures, some changes may be warranted.

  11. Mid-Century Warming in the Los Angeles Region and its Uncertainty using Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, F.; Hall, A. D.; Walton, D.; Capps, S. B.; Qu, X.; Huang, H. J.; Berg, N.; Jousse, A.; Schwartz, M.; Nakamura, M.; Cerezo-Mota, R.

    2012-12-01

    Using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques, we projected mid-21st century warming in the Los Angeles region at 2-km resolution. To account for uncertainty associated with the trajectory of future greenhouse gas emissions, we examined projections for both "business-as-usual" (RCP8.5) and "mitigation" (RCP2.6) emissions scenarios from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To account for the considerable uncertainty associated with choice of global climate model, we downscaled results for all available global climate models in CMIP5. For the business-as-usual scenario, we find that by the mid-21st century, the most likely warming is roughly 2.6°C averaged over the region's land areas, with a 95% confidence that the warming lies between 0.9 and 4.2°C. The high resolution of the projections reveals a pronounced spatial pattern in the warming: High elevations and inland areas separated from the coast by at least one mountain complex warm 20 to 50% more than the areas near the coast or within the Los Angeles basin. This warming pattern is especially apparent in summertime. The summertime warming contrast between the inland and coastal zones has a large effect on the most likely expected number of extremely hot days per year. Coastal locations and areas within the Los Angeles basin see roughly two to three times the number of extremely hot days, while high elevations and inland areas typically experience approximately three to five times the number of extremely hot days. Under the mitigation emissions scenario, the most likely warming and increase in heat extremes are somewhat smaller. However, the majority of the warming seen in the business-as-usual scenario still occurs at all locations in the most likely case under the mitigation scenario, and heat extremes still increase significantly. This warming study is the first part of a series studies of our project. More climate change impacts on the Santa Ana wind, rainfall

  12. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  13. Quantifying the role of land-use and land-cover changes in Northern Eurasia in global greenhouse gas emissions and biomass supply during the 21st century using an earth system modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuang, Q.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Cai, Y.; Tchebakova, N. M.; Melillo, J. M.; Reilly, J. M.; Sokolov, A. P.; Sirin, A.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Shvidenko, A.

    2016-12-01

    The largest increase of surface air temperature and related climate extremes have occurred in Northern Eurasia in recent decades, and are projected to continue during the 21st century. The changing climate will affect biogeography, land cover, and carbon sink and source activities in the region, which in turn, will affect how global land use evolves in the future as humans attempt to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Regional land-use changes, however, also depend on pressures imposed by the global economy and environmental changes. Feedbacks from future land-use change will further modify regional and global biogeochemistry and climate. This study uses a suite of linked biogeography, biogeochemical, economic, and climate models to explore how climate-induced vegetation shifts in Northern Eurasia will influence land-use change, carbon cycling and biomass supply across the globe during the 21st century. We find that, at the global scale, more land will be allocated towards food and biofuel crops (from current 22 to 37 million km2 at the end of the 21st century) due to land-use change associated with increasing population and economic development, and vegetation shifts in Northern Eurasia under a no-policy scenario. A global cumulative carbon sink of 52 Pg C occurs under the no-policy scenario where CO2 equivalent greenhouse gas concentrations reach 870 ppmv by the end of 21st century. However, under a policy scenario, which limits CO2 equivalent greenhouse gas concentrations to 480 ppmv by the end of the 21st century, a global cumulative carbon sink of 63 Pg C occurs. The global biomass supply will decrease by 36 and 14 Pg C under the no-policy and policy scenarios, respectively. In the presentation, we will also discuss our analysis on N2O and CH4 exchanges between the biosphere and the atmosphere in response to the changes of land cover and climate during this century.

  14. The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

    2012-12-01

    We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total

  15. Analyzing costs of space debris mitigation methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiedemann, C.; Krag, H.; Bendisch, J.; Sdunnus, H.

    The steadily increasing number of space objects poses a considerable hazard to all kinds of spacecraft. To reduce the risks to future space missions different debris mitigation measures and spacecraft protection techniques have been investigated during the last years. However, the economic efficiency has not been considered yet in this context. This economical background is not always clear to satellite operators and the space industry. Current studies have the objective to evaluate the mission costs due to space debris in a business as usual (no mitigation) scenario compared to the missions costs considering debris mitigation. The aim i an estimation of thes time until the investment in debris mitigation will lead to an effective reduction of mission costs. This paper presents the results of investigations on the key problems of cost estimation for spacecraft and the influence of debris mitigation and shielding on cost. The shielding of a satellite can be an effective method to protect the spacecraft against debris impact. Mitigation strategies like the reduction of orbital lifetime and de- or re-orbit of non-operational satellites are methods to control the space debris environment. These methods result in an increase of costs. In a first step the overall costs of different types of unmanned satellites are analyzed. The key problem is, that it is not possible to provide a simple cost model that can be applied to all types of satellites. Unmanned spacecraft differ very much in mission, complexity of design, payload and operational lifetime. It is important to classify relevant cost parameters and investigate their influence on the respective mission. The theory of empirical cost estimation and existing cost models are discussed. A selected cost model is simplified and generalized for an application on all operational satellites. In a next step the influence of space debris on cost is treated, if the implementation of mitigation strategies is considered.

  16. Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

    2000-01-01

    A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.

  17. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  18. Mitigation Monitoring Plan

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-09-01

    The Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Report (SEIR) (September 1992) for the Proposed Renewal of the Contract between the United States Department of Energy and The Regents of the University of California for the Operation and Management of the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory identifies the environmental impacts associated with renewing the contract and specifies a series of measures designed to mitigate adverse impacts to the environment. This Mitigation Monitoring Plan describes the procedures the University will use to implement the mitigation measures adopted in connection with the approval of the Contract.

  19. Exposure scenarios for workers.

    PubMed

    Marquart, Hans; Northage, Christine; Money, Chris

    2007-12-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate considerations of both human health and the environment. Specific aspects are relevant for worker exposure. Gathering information on the uses of the chemical is an important step in developing an Exposure Scenario. In-house information at manufacturers is an important source. Downstream users can contribute information through direct contact or through their associations. Relatively simple approaches (Tier 1 tools, such as the ECETOC Targeted Risk Assessment and the model EASE) can be used to develop broad Exposure Scenarios that cover many use situations. These approaches rely on the categorisation of just a few determinants, including only a small number of risk management measures. Such approaches have a limited discriminatory power and are rather conservative. When the hazard of the substance or the complexity of the exposure situation require a more in-depth approach, further development of the Exposure Scenarios with Tier 2 approaches is needed. Measured data sets of worker exposure are very valuable in a Tier 2 approach. Some downstream user associations have attempted to build Exposure Scenarios based on measured data sets. Generic Tier 2 tools for developing Exposure Scenarios do not exist yet. To enable efficient development of the worker exposure part of Exposure Scenarios a further development of Tier 1 and Tier 2 tools is needed. Special attention should be given to user friendliness and to the validity (boundaries) of the approaches. The development of standard worker exposure descriptions or full Exposure Scenarios by downstream user branches in cooperation with manufacturers and importers is recommended.

  20. Mars base buildup scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  1. Mitigation win-win

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moran, Dominic; Lucas, Amanda; Barnes, Andrew

    2013-07-01

    Win-win messages regarding climate change mitigation policies in agriculture tend to oversimplify farmer motivation. Contributions from psychology, cultural evolution and behavioural economics should help to design more effective policy.

  2. Dust Mitigation Vehicle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cardiff, Eric H.

    2011-01-01

    A document describes the development and demonstration of an apparatus, called a dust mitigation vehicle, for reducing the amount of free dust on the surface of the Moon. The dust mitigation vehicle would be used to pave surfaces on the Moon to prevent the dust from levitating or adhering to surfaces. The basic principle of operation of these apparatuses is to use a lens or a dish mirror to concentrate solar thermal radiation onto a small spot to heat lunar regolith. In the case of the prototype dust mitigation vehicle, a Fresnel lens was used to heat a surface layer of regolith sufficiently to sinter or melt dust grains into a solid mass. The prototype vehicle has demonstrated paving rates up to 1.8 square meters per day. The proposed flight design of the dust mitigation vehicle is also described.

  3. Mitigation Banking Factsheet

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    A mitigation bank is an aquatic resource area that has been restored, established, enhanced, or preserved for the purpose of providing compensation for unavoidable impacts to aquatic resources permitted under Section 404

  4. CWA Section 404 Mitigation

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Council on Environmental Quality has defined mitigation in its implementing regulations for the National Environmental Policy Act to include avoiding, minimizing, rectifying, reducing over time, and compensating for impacts.

  5. Orbital Debris Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelley, R. L.; Jarkey, D. R.; Stansbery, G.

    2014-01-01

    Policies on limiting orbital debris are found throughout the US Government, many foreign space agencies, and as adopted guidelines in the United Nations. The underlying purpose of these policies is to ensure the environment remains safe for the operation of robotic and human spacecraft in near- Earth orbit. For this reason, it is important to consider orbital debris mitigation during the design of all space vehicles. Documenting compliance with the debris mitigation guidelines occurs after the vehicle has already been designed and fabricated for many CubeSats, whereas larger satellites are evaluated throughout the design process. This paper will provide a brief explanation of the US Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices, a discussion of international guidelines, as well as NASA's process for compliance evaluation. In addition, it will discuss the educational value of considering orbital debris mitigation requirements as a part of student built satellite design.

  6. Appalachian Stream Mitigation Workshop

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    A 5 day workshop in 2011 developed for state and federal regulatory and resource agencies, who review, comment on and/or approve compensatory mitigation plans for surface coal mining projects in Appalachia

  7. century drying

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Coats, Sloan

    2014-11-01

    Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twenty-first century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman-Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both

  8. GHG emissions and mitigation potential in Indian agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vetter, Sylvia; Feliciano, Diana; Sapkota, Tek; Hillier, Jon; Smith, Pete; Stirling, Clare

    2016-04-01

    India is one of the world's largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter, accounting for about 5% of global emissions with further increases expected in the future. The Government of India aims to reduce emission intensities by 20-25% by 2020 compared with the 2005 level. In a recent departure from past practice the reconvened Council on Climate Change stated that climate change in agriculture would include a component that would focus on reducing emissions in agriculture, particularly methane and nitrous oxide emissions. To develop recommendations for mitigation in agriculture in India, a baseline study is presented to analyse the GHG emissions from agriculture for current management (Directorate of Economics and Statistics of the government of India). This analysis is done for the two states Bihar and Haryana, which differ in their management and practises based on different climate and policies. This first analysis shows were the highest GHG emissions in agriculture is produced and were the highest mitigation potential might be. The GHG emissions and mitigation potential are calculated using the CCAFS Mitigation Option Tool (CCAFS-MOT) (https://ccafs.cgiar.org/mitigation-option-tool-agriculture#.VpTnWL826d4) with modifications for the special modelling. In a second step, stakeholder meetings provided a wide range of possible and definite scenarios (management, policy, technology, costs, etc.) for the future to mitigate emissions in agriculture as well as how to increase productivity. These information were used to create scenarios to give estimates for the mitigation potential in agriculture for India in 2020.

  9. Investigating afforestation and bioenergy CCS as climate change mitigation strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Dietrich, Jan Philip; Klein, David; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Bonsch, Markus; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Weindl, Isabelle; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Müller, Christoph

    2014-05-01

    The land-use sector can contribute to climate change mitigation not only by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but also by increasing carbon uptake from the atmosphere and thereby creating negative CO2 emissions. In this paper, we investigate two land-based climate change mitigation strategies for carbon removal: (1) afforestation and (2) bioenergy in combination with carbon capture and storage technology (bioenergy CCS). In our approach, a global tax on GHG emissions aimed at ambitious climate change mitigation incentivizes land-based mitigation by penalizing positive and rewarding negative CO2 emissions from the land-use system. We analyze afforestation and bioenergy CCS as standalone and combined mitigation strategies. We find that afforestation is a cost-efficient strategy for carbon removal at relatively low carbon prices, while bioenergy CCS becomes competitive only at higher prices. According to our results, cumulative carbon removal due to afforestation and bioenergy CCS is similar at the end of 21st century (600-700 GtCO2), while land-demand for afforestation is much higher compared to bioenergy CCS. In the combined setting, we identify competition for land, but the impact on the mitigation potential (1000 GtCO2) is partially alleviated by productivity increases in the agricultural sector. Moreover, our results indicate that early-century afforestation presumably will not negatively impact carbon removal due to bioenergy CCS in the second half of the 21st century. A sensitivity analysis shows that land-based mitigation is very sensitive to different levels of GHG taxes. Besides that, the mitigation potential of bioenergy CCS highly depends on the development of future bioenergy yields and the availability of geological carbon storage, while for afforestation projects the length of the crediting period is crucial.

  10. GLOBAL ALTERNATIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One way to examine possible future outcomes for environmental protection is through the development and analysis of alternative future scenarios. This type of assessment postulates two or more different paths that social and environmental development might take, using correspond...

  11. Emission scenarios: Explaining differences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2017-01-01

    Carbon dioxide emission scenarios rely on a number of assumptions about how societies will develop in the future, creating uncertainty in projections. Now, research reveals the sensitivity of emission estimates to some of these assumptions.

  12. Higher trends but larger uncertainty and geographic variability in 21st century temperature and heat waves

    SciTech Connect

    Ganguly, Auroop R; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K; Erickson III, David J; Branstetter, Marcia L; Parish, Esther S; Singh, Nagendra; Drake, John B; Buja, Lawrence

    2009-01-01

    Generating credible climate change and extremes projections remains a high-priority challenge, especially since recent observed emissions are above the worst-case scenario. Bias and uncertainty analyses of ensemble simulations from a global earth systems model show increased warming and more intense heat waves combined with greater uncertainty and large regional variability in the 21st century. Global warming trends are statistically validated across ensembles and investigated at regional scales. Observed heat wave intensities in the current decade are larger than worst-case projections. Model projections are relatively insensitive to initial conditions, while uncertainty bounds obtained by comparison with recent observations are wider than ensemble ranges. Increased trends in temperature and heat waves, concurrent with larger uncertainty and variability, suggest greater urgency and complexity of adaptation or mitigation decisions.

  13. Higher trends but larger uncertainty and geographic variability in 21st century temperature and heat waves.

    PubMed

    Ganguly, Auroop R; Steinhaeuser, Karsten; Erickson, David J; Branstetter, Marcia; Parish, Esther S; Singh, Nagendra; Drake, John B; Buja, Lawrence

    2009-09-15

    Generating credible climate change and extremes projections remains a high-priority challenge, especially since recent observed emissions are above the worst-case scenario. Bias and uncertainty analyses of ensemble simulations from a global earth systems model show increased warming and more intense heat waves combined with greater uncertainty and large regional variability in the 21st century. Global warming trends are statistically validated across ensembles and investigated at regional scales. Observed heat wave intensities in the current decade are larger than worst-case projections. Model projections are relatively insensitive to initial conditions, while uncertainty bounds obtained by comparison with recent observations are wider than ensemble ranges. Increased trends in temperature and heat waves, concurrent with larger uncertainty and variability, suggest greater urgency and complexity of adaptation or mitigation decisions.

  14. Higher trends but larger uncertainty and geographic variability in 21st century temperature and heat waves

    PubMed Central

    Ganguly, Auroop R.; Steinhaeuser, Karsten; Erickson, David J.; Branstetter, Marcia; Parish, Esther S.; Singh, Nagendra; Drake, John B.; Buja, Lawrence

    2009-01-01

    Generating credible climate change and extremes projections remains a high-priority challenge, especially since recent observed emissions are above the worst-case scenario. Bias and uncertainty analyses of ensemble simulations from a global earth systems model show increased warming and more intense heat waves combined with greater uncertainty and large regional variability in the 21st century. Global warming trends are statistically validated across ensembles and investigated at regional scales. Observed heat wave intensities in the current decade are larger than worst-case projections. Model projections are relatively insensitive to initial conditions, while uncertainty bounds obtained by comparison with recent observations are wider than ensemble ranges. Increased trends in temperature and heat waves, concurrent with larger uncertainty and variability, suggest greater urgency and complexity of adaptation or mitigation decisions. PMID:19805213

  15. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    SciTech Connect

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  16. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    DOE PAGES

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; ...

    2016-09-28

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide rangemore » of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  17. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    SciTech Connect

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-28

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  18. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  19. Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

    2013-04-01

    The target of keeping global average temperature increase to below 2°C has emerged in the international climate debate more than a decade ago. In response, the scientific community has tried to estimate the costs of reaching such a target through modelling and scenario analysis. Producing such estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well-known, but ill-quantified uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on one side, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other side, has worked on achieving an increasingly better understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty for the cost of mitigation scenarios but has only been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in a rudimentary manner, i.e., for equilibrium conditions. To bridge this gap between the two research communities, we generate distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific temperature limits, taking into account uncertainties in multiple dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. In other words, uncertainties resulting from our incomplete knowledge about how the climate system precisely reacts to GHG emissions (geophysical uncertainties), about how society will develop (social uncertainties and choices), which technologies will be available (technological uncertainty and choices), when we choose to start acting globally on climate change (political choices), and how much money we are or are not willing to spend to achieve climate change mitigation. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by

  20. Mitigation of bioterrorist threats in the 21st century.

    PubMed

    Logan-Henfrey, L

    2000-01-01

    There is a raising level of awareness and concern that agriculture and food supplies might serve as targets for bioterrorists. To minimize such threats a number of new initiates are urgently needed: 1. Greater levels of financial commitment from federal, state, and international organizations for research on highly infectious diseases and for emergency response infrastructure; 2. Wellorchestrated emergency response plans based on inter-agency, inter-departmental and stakeholder working groups; 3. Teams prepared for risk assessment and risk communication; 4. Modern systems of animal identification and accurate trace-back for animal movement; 5. Increased biosecurity in intensive production operations; 6. Accurate intelligence as to what pathogens pose the highest risks for economic and social impact; 7. Establishment of new international animal and plant disease research networks and partnerships; 8. Strengthen international disease surveillance networks for early detection and intervention; 9. New generations of rapid diagnostic tests for pathogen detection that are practical for field and diagnostic laboratories; 10. Increased level of commitment to pathogen genomics research for molecular epidemiology and vaccine development; 11. New chemical and immunological intervention strategies to prevent or control disease outbreaks; 12. Increased level of training on exotic and emerging animal diseases in basic veterinary education and through continuing education for veterinarians, state and federal field personnel and laboratory diagnosticians.

  1. Early Benefits of Mitigation in Risk of Regional Climate Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciavarella, Andrew; Stott, Peter; Lowe, Jason

    2015-04-01

    Large differences in climate outcomes are projected over the coming century depending on whether greenhouse gas emissions continue on a business as usual path or are substantially reduced following an aggressive mitigation strategy. However, it has previously been claimed that it will take many decades for there to be any significant difference between paths of aggressive mitigation and business as usual with the emergence of differences only seen towards the middle of the century. Here we show that important differences in our exposure to risk of climate extremes in many land regions emerges much more quickly. Without substantial mitigation, in many regions of the world, extreme (one in 20-year) seasonal, regional near surface air temperatures are found to have become more than twice as likely within only 15 years (i.e. by 2030). Therefore our exposure to climate risk is reduced substantially and rapidly with aggressive mitigation. This demonstrates that the benefits of mitigation are realised rapidly and it is not necessary to wait until the middle of the century as has previously been claimed.

  2. Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bopp, L.; Resplandy, L.; Orr, J. C.; Doney, S. C.; Dunne, J. P.; Gehlen, M.; Halloran, P.; Heinze, C.; Ilyina, T.; Séférian, R.; Tjiputra, J.; Vichi, M.

    2013-02-01

    Ocean ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes of their physical, chemical and biological environment. Among these changes, warming, acidification, deoxygenation and changes in primary productivity by marine phytoplankton can be considered as four of the major stressors of open ocean ecosystems. Due to rising atmospheric CO2 in the coming decades, these changes will be amplified. Here, we use the most recent simulations performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 to assess how these stressors may evolve over the course of the 21st century. The 10 Earth System Models used here project similar trends in ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced primary productivity for each of the IPCC's representative concentration parthways (RCP) over the 21st century. For the "business-as-usual" scenario RCP8.5, the model-mean changes in 2090s (compared to 1990s) for sea surface temperature, sea surface pH, global O2 content and integrated primary productivity amount to +2.73 °C, -0.33 pH unit, -3.45% and -8.6%, respectively. For the high mitigation scenario RCP2.6, corresponding changes are +0.71 °C, -0.07 pH unit, -1.81% and -2.0% respectively, illustrating the effectiveness of extreme mitigation strategies. Although these stressors operate globally, they display distinct regional patterns. Large decreases in O2 and in pH are simulated in global ocean intermediate and mode waters, whereas large reductions in primary production are simulated in the tropics and in the North Atlantic. Although temperature and pH projections are robust across models, the same does not hold for projections of sub-surface O2 concentrations in the tropics and global and regional changes in net primary productivity.

  3. Playing against nature: improving earthquake hazard mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, S. A.; Stein, J.

    2012-12-01

    uncertainties and the need to candidly assess them. It can be applied to exploring policies under various hazard scenarios and mitigating other natural hazards.ariation in total cost, the sum of expected loss and mitigation cost, as a function of mitigation level. The optimal level of mitigation, n*, minimizes the total cost. The expected loss depends on the hazard model, so the better the hazard model, the better the mitigation policy (Stein and Stein, 2012).

  4. Afforestation to mitigate climate change: impacts on food prices under consideration of albedo effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Humpenöder, Florian; Stevanović, Miodrag; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Kriegler, Elmar; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander

    2016-08-01

    Ambitious climate targets, such as the 2 °C target, are likely to require the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Afforestation is one such mitigation option but could, through the competition for land, also lead to food prices hikes. In addition, afforestation often decreases land-surface albedo and the amount of short-wave radiation reflected back to space, which results in a warming effect. In particular in the boreal zone, such biophysical warming effects following from afforestation are estimated to offset the cooling effect from carbon sequestration. We assessed the food price response of afforestation, and considered the albedo effect with scenarios in which afforestation was restricted to certain latitudinal zones. In our study, afforestation was incentivized by a globally uniform reward for carbon uptake in the terrestrial biosphere. This resulted in large-scale afforestation (2580 Mha globally) and substantial carbon sequestration (860 GtCO2) up to the end of the century. However, it was also associated with an increase in food prices of about 80% by 2050 and a more than fourfold increase by 2100. When afforestation was restricted to the tropics the food price response was substantially reduced, while still almost 60% cumulative carbon sequestration was achieved. In the medium term, the increase in prices was then lower than the increase in income underlying our scenario projections. Moreover, our results indicate that more liberalised trade in agricultural commodities could buffer the food price increases following from afforestation in tropical regions.

  5. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    SciTech Connect

    Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A.

    2016-02-11

    In this article, we study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses mX ≲ 8TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  6. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    DOE PAGES

    Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; ...

    2016-02-11

    In this article, we study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parametermore » space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses mX ≲ 8TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.« less

  7. Impact of LULCC on the emission of BVOCs during the 21st century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szogs, Sebastian; Arneth, Almut; Anthoni, Peter; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Stehfest, Elke

    2017-09-01

    Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) is one of the key drivers of anthropogenic climate change. In addition to greenhouse gases such as CO2 or CH4, LULCC affects also the emission of other carbon trace gases such as biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). We investigate the impact of changing LULCC on the emission of isoprene and monoterpenes during the 21st century using seven different land-use projections, applying the dynamic vegetation modelling framework LPJ-GUESS. Climate change, and atmospheric CO2-concentration are based on the RCP2.6 scenario. The different LULCC-scenarios explore the impact of different land-based climate change mitigation strategies (such as afforestation and avoided deforestation, or bioenergy). We show that the increase of land area under crops or grassland would lead to a significant decrease of BVOC emissions, with a strong negative correlation between the fraction of managed global land area and the emission of isoprene and monoterpenes. But the choice of crops is important, especially for the bioenergy scenarios in which increasing fractional cover leads to decreasing BVOC emissions in our simulations; use of woody bioenergy crops can reverse this decrease. The strong impact of LULCC on the global and regional emission of BVOCs implies the need to include the impact of these changes in projections of atmospheric composition and air quality.

  8. Using the New Scenarios Framework to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carter, T. R.

    2013-12-01

    In 2005, Finland was among the first countries in the world to develop a national climate change adaptation strategy (Marttila et al., 2005). This included a characterization of future changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions using scenarios based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES - IPCC, 2000). Following a government evaluation of the strategy, completion of a national adaptation research programme, and in light of the recent European Union adaptation strategy, the Finnish strategy is now under revision. As part of this revision process, the New Scenario Framework (Moss et al., 2010) is being used to guide the mapping of future conditions in Finland out to the end of the 21st century. Future Finnish climate is being analysed using the CMIP5 climate model simulations (Taylor et al., 2012), including downscaled information based on regional climate model projections in the EURO-CORDEX project (Vautard et al., 2013). All projections are forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs - van Vuuren et al., 2011). Socioeconomic scenarios are also being developed by outlining alternative pathways that reflect national social, economic, environmental and planning goals. These are designed according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework of challenges to adaptation and mitigation (Kriegler et al., 2012). Work is in progress to characterize these pathways, mainly qualitatively, for different sectors in Finland. Preliminary results of the conceptual scenario development phase will be presented in this session. These initial ideas will be exchanged with representatives of ministries, regional government and key stakeholder groups. The eventual form and number of scenarios that appear in the revised strategy will be determined following a formal review of the draft document to be prepared in 2014. Future work could include quantification of scenarios, possibly mapping them onto the specific SSP worlds. This would then provide

  9. Possible Scenarios of Impacts of Climatic Change on Potential Evapotranspiration in the Watershed of the Conchos River, Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raynal-Villasenor, J. A.; Rodriguez-Pineda, J. A.

    2007-12-01

    The watershed of the Conchos River is the main watershed of the state of Chihuahua, Mexico, and it is the main source of water of the watershed of the Grande river downstream El Paso, Texas. Such part of the watershed of the Grande River is also the border between Mexico and the United States of America, from El Paso-Ciudad Juarez up to Brownsville-Matamoros. It is very important for the state of Chihuahua and Mexico as a whole, to construct possible scenarios of the effects of the global climatic change in the potential evapotranspiration in such watershed and to construct likely scenarios which results will help to define an integrated watershed management to mitigate those global climate change impacts. The results of a recent study sponsored by the alliance between WWF-Fundacion Gonzalo Rio Arronte, are presented in the paper. The study was conducted to construct possible scenarios on the effects of the global climatic change on the potential evapotranspiration in the watershed of the Conchos River in Mexico. Three watershed characteristic meteorological stations were selected to conduct such study. The predictions of change of the surface air temperature and the change of the rainfall produced by the global climatic change, by the end of the XXI Century, were those published by the Hadley Center. The results show that air temperature increment of one degree centigrade increases evapotranspiration values between 3 and 3.5% with respect current values. As a consequence moisture deficiency increases from 9% to 40%. With an air temperature increment of three degrees centigrades, the potential evapotranspiration increases between 8.8% and 10% increasing moisture deficiency from 27.5% up to 116%. The expected rainfall increment values show a negligible contribution for the potential evapotranspiration reduction in the Rio Conchos watershed. These results conclude that immediate actions need to be taken to mitigate climate change impacts all along the watershed.

  10. Mitigating Climate Change with Earth Orbital Sunshades

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Coverstone, Victoria; Johnson, Les

    2015-01-01

    An array of rotating sunshades based on emerging solar sail technology will be deployed in a novel Earth orbit to provide near-continuous partial shading of the Earth, reducing the heat input to the atmosphere by blocking a small percentage of the incoming sunlight, and mitigating local weather effects of anticipated climate change over the next century. The technology will provide local cooling relief during extreme heat events (and heating relief during extreme cold events) thereby saving human lives, agriculture, livestock, water and energy needs. A synthesis of the solar sail design, the sails' operational modes, and the selected orbit combine to provide local weather modification.

  11. EPR Severe Accident Threats and Mitigation

    SciTech Connect

    Azarian, G.; Kursawe, H.M.; Nie, M.; Fischer, M.; Eyink, J.; Stoudt, R.H.

    2004-07-01

    Despite the extremely low EPR core melt frequency, an improved defence-in-depth approach is applied in order to comply with the EPR safety target: no stringent countermeasures should be necessary outside the immediate plant vicinity like evacuation, relocation or food control other than the first harvest in case of a severe accident. Design provisions eliminate energetic events and maintain the containment integrity and leak-tightness during the entire course of the accident. Based on scenarios that cover a broad range of physical phenomena and which provide a sound envelope of boundary conditions associated with each containment challenge, a selection of representative loads has been done, for which mitigation measures have to cope with. This paper presents the main critical threats and the approach used to mitigate those threats. (authors)

  12. Attractive scenario writing.

    PubMed

    Takahashi, Yuzo; Oku, Sachiko Alexandra

    2009-05-01

    This article describes the key steps of scenario writing to facilitate problem-based learning discussion to aid student learning of basic medical science in combination with clinical medicine. The scenario has to amplify and deepen the students' thinking so that they can correlate findings from the case and knowledge from textbooks. This can be achieved in three ways: (1) a comparison of cases; (2) demonstrating a scientific link between symptoms and basic medicine; and (3) introducing a personal and emotional aspect to the scenario. A comparison of two cases enables us to shed light on the pathological differences and think about the underlying biological mechanisms. These include: (a) a comparison of two cases with similar symptoms, but different diseases; (b) a comparison of two cases with different symptoms, but the same cause; and (c) a comparison of two cases, with an easy case, followed by a complicated case. The scenarios may be disclosed in a sequence to show a scientific link between symptoms of the patient and basic medicine, which may help to cultivate a physician with a scientific mind. Examples are given by the relationship between: (a) symptoms, pathology and morphology; and (b) symptoms, pathology and physiology. When the scenario is written in such a way that students are personally and/or emotionally involved in the case, they will be more motivated in learning as if involved in the case themselves. To facilitate this, the scenario can be written in the first-person perspective. Examples include "I had a very bad headache, and vomited several times...", and "I noticed that my father was screaming at night...". The description of the events may be in chronological order with actual time, which makes students feel as if they are really the primary responding person.

  13. ICRH for core impurity mitigation in JET-ILW

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lerche, E.; Goniche, M.; Jacquet, P.; Van Eester, D.; Bobkov, V.; Colas, L.; Monakhov, I.; Rimini, F.; Czarnecka, A.; Crombé, K.; Dumont, R.; Hobirk, J.; Kazakov, Y.; Mayoral, M.-L.; Meneses, L.; Mlynar, J.; Noble, C.; Nunes, I.; Ongena, J.; Petrzilka, V.; Reich, M.; Santala, M.; Shaw, A.; Tsalas, M.

    2015-12-01

    Ion cyclotron resonance frequency (ICRF) heating has been an essential component in the development of high power H-mode scenarios in JET-ILW. The steps that were taken for the successful use of ICRF heating in terms of enhancing the power capabilities and optimizing the heating performance in view of core impurity mitigation in these experiments will be reviewed.

  14. Mitigation technologies and measures in energy sector of Kazakstan

    SciTech Connect

    Pilifosova, O.; Danchuk, D.; Temertekov, T.

    1996-12-31

    An important commitment in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is to conduct mitigation analysis and to communicate climate change measures and policies. In major part reducing CO{sub 2} as well as the other greenhouse gas emissions in Kazakstan, can be a side-product of measures addressed to increasing energy efficiency. Since such measures are very important for the national economy, mitigation strategies in the energy sector of Kazakstan are directly connected with the general national strategy of the energy sector development. This paper outlines the main measures and technologies in energy sector of Kazakstan which can lead to GHG emissions reduction and presents the results of current mitigation assessment. The mitigation analysis is addressed to energy production sector. A baseline and six mitigation scenarios were developed to evaluate the most attractive mitigation options, focusing on specific technologies which have been already included in sustainable energy programs. According to the baseline projection, Kazakstan`s CO{sub 2} emissions will not exceed their 1990 level until 2005. The potential for CO{sub 2} emission reduction is estimated to be about 11 % of the base line emission level by the end of considered period (in 2020). The main mitigation options in the energy production sector in terms of mitigation potential and technical and economical feasibility include rehabilitation of thermal power plants aimed to increasing efficiency, use of nuclear energy and further expansion in the use of hydro energy based on small hydroelectric power plants.

  15. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process

  16. GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION POTENTIAL IN U.S. FORESTRY AND AGRICULTURE

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes the FASOM-GHG model (Forestry and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gases), the GHG mitigation scenarios for U.S. forestry and agriculture run through the FASOM-GHG model, and the results and insights that are generated. GHG mitigation po...

  17. GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION POTENTIAL IN U.S. FORESTRY AND AGRICULTURE

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes the FASOM-GHG model (Forestry and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gases), the GHG mitigation scenarios for U.S. forestry and agriculture run through the FASOM-GHG model, and the results and insights that are generated. GHG mitigation po...

  18. Costs and benefits of space debris mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neish, Michael J.; Goka, Tateo

    2001-10-01

    We have conducted a series of simulations of several low-Earth orbit (LEO) missions to examine the cost effect of a growing debris population for several different mitigation scenarios. By comparing the best and worst of these, we find that it is cost-effective to raise mission costs by about 1-1.5% now, and still save money by reducing mission costs in the long run. This compares with 3-4% according to an earlier estimate by Greenberg and Reynolds. We have also made a simple calculation of the cost of end of life (EOL) orbit-raising of geostationary (GEO) satellites.

  19. Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  20. Characterization of maritime scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Low, Tom B.; Hudak, D. R.

    1992-09-01

    Meteorological modules were developed to describe characteristic maritime scenarios in various oceanic areas for DREV complimentarity studies of shipboard defense. The best means of depicting the maritime atmospheric environment was found to be on the basis of air mass analysis. A methodology was developed whereby, through a mixture of man-machine objective analysis of upper air radiosonde measurements at the 850, 700, and 500 mb levels, typical airmasses could be identified. Characteristic scenarios were then defined based on physical considerations of air mass theory. Utilizing an extensive 10-year set of worldwide radiosonde, ozondesonde, and surface observations collected from a combination of land-based stations, oceanographic buoys, and weather ships, frequency and correlation statistics of various global and derived meteorological and oceanographic parameters were established for the CANLANT, NORLANT, WESTLANT, EASTLANT, IBERLANT, MARPAC regions, the ARCTIC OCEAN to 85 degree(s)N, the BALTIC SEA, MEDITERRANEAN SEA, PERSIAN GULF, RED SEA, GULF OF OMAN, and the INDIAN OCEAN. These descriptions included atmospheric profiles of pressure, temperature, dewpoint and relative humidity, wind speeds and direction, refractivity index, and ozone concentration from the surface to approximately 20 km., as well as associated surface visibility, clouds and weather, sea state, and duct height conditions. Many of the derived parameters were found to be a strong function of the defining airmass scenarios. The spatial distribution of these scenarios was also determined.

  1. Wetlands Mitigation Banking Concepts

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-07-01

    the financial risk associated with are normally established in advance, mitigation permitted activities. banks eliminate the lag time between loss and...management natural state or to an enhanced condition and techniques. None of the traditional wetlands begin to amass bankable credits has also been management

  2. Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Nicholas L.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of national and international space debris mitigation guides is to promote the preservation of near-Earth space for applications and exploration missions far into the future. To accomplish this objective, the accumulation of objects, particularly in long-lived orbits, must be eliminated or curtailed.

  3. Teaching Hazards Mitigation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abernethy, James

    1980-01-01

    It is recommended that courses be provided for architectural students in postoccupancy building performance and user experience. A course in disaster mitigation is described. It was introduced to increase student awareness of the importance of design decisions in building safety. (MSE)

  4. Cascadia Earthquake and Tsunami Scenario for California's North Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dengler, L.

    2006-12-01

    In 1995 the California Division of Mines and Geology (now the California Geological Survey) released a planning scenario for an earthquake on the southern portion of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). This scenario was the 8th and last of the Earthquake Planning Scenarios published by CDMG. It was the largest magnitude CDMG scenario, an 8.4 earthquake rupturing the southern 200 km of the CSZ, and it was the only scenario to include tsunami impacts. This scenario event has not occurred in historic times and depicts impacts far more severe than any recent earthquake. The local tsunami hazard is new; there is no written record of significant local tsunami impact in the region. The north coast scenario received considerable attention in Humboldt and Del Norte Counties and contributed to a number of mitigation efforts. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of scientists, emergency managers, government agencies, and businesses from Humboldt, Mendocino, and Del Norte Counties, was formed in 1996 to assist local jurisdictions in understanding the implications of the scenario and to promote a coordinated, consistent mitigation program. The group has produced print and video materials and promoted response and evacuation planning. Since 1997 the RCTWG has sponsored an Earthquake Tsunami Education Room at county fairs featuring preparedness information, hands-on exhibits and regional tsunami hazard maps. Since the development of the TsunamiReady Program in 2001, the RCTWG facilitates community TsunamiReady certification. To assess the effectiveness of mitigation efforts, five telephone surveys between 1993 and 2001 were conducted by the Humboldt Earthquake Education Center. A sixth survey is planned for this fall. Each survey includes between 400 and 600 respondents. Over the nine year period covered by the surveys, the percent with houses secured to foundations has increased from 58 to 80 percent, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased

  5. Sources of uncertainties in 21st century projections of marine ecosystem drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Froelicher, T. L.; Rodgers, K. B.; Stock, C. A.; Cheung, W. W. L.

    2015-12-01

    Marine ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced climate change affecting their physical and biogeochemical environment. At present, future projections of marine ecosystem drivers are inherently uncertain, complicating assessments of climate change impacts. Here we evaluate the relative importance of specific sources of uncertainties in projections of marine ecosystem drivers (warming, acidification, nutrient availability and declining oxygen levels) as a function of prediction lead-time and spatial scales. We show that the uncertainty in century-scale global and regional surface pH projections is dominated by scenario uncertainty, highlighting the critical importance of policy decisions on carbon emissions. In contrast, uncertainty in century-scale sea surface temperature projections in polar regions, oxygen levels in low oxygen waters, and regional nutrient availability is dominated by model uncertainty, underscoring that overcoming deficiencies in scientific understanding and improved process representation in Earth system models are critical for making more robust predictions. For smaller spatial and temporal scales, uncertainty associated with internal variability also constitutes an important source of uncertainty, suggesting irreducible uncertainty inherent in these projections. We also show that changes in the combined multiple ecosystem drivers emerges from the noise in 44% of the ocean in the next decade and in 57% of the ocean by the end of the century following a high carbon emissions scenario. Changes in pH and sea surface temperature can be reduced substantially and rapidly with aggressive carbon emissions mitigation, but only marginally for oxygen and net primary productivity. The broader scientific implications, including downscaling of Earth system model output for large marine ecosystem regions and for impact assessment models, will also be discussed.

  6. Advanced Insider Threat Mitigation Workshop Instructional Materials

    SciTech Connect

    Gibbs, Philip; Larsen, Robert; O'Brien, Mike; Edmunds, Tom

    2009-02-01

    Insiders represent a formidable threat to nuclear facilities. This set of workshop materials covers methodologies to analyze and approaches to mitigate the threat of an insider attempting abrupt and protracted theft of nuclear materials. This particular set of materials is an update of a January 2008 version to add increased emphasis on Material Control and Accounting and its role with respect to protracted insider nuclear material theft scenarios. This report is a compilation of workshop materials consisting of lectures on technical and administrative measures used in Physical Protection (PP) and Material Control and Accounting (MC&A) and methods for analyzing their effectiveness against a postulated insider threat. The postulated threat includes both abrupt and protracted theft scenarios. Presentation is envisioned to be through classroom instruction and discussion. Several practical and group exercises are included for demonstration and application of the analysis approach contained in the lecture/discussion sessions as applied to a hypothetical nuclear facility.

  7. NOAA Regional Sea Level Trends and Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sweet, W.; Zervas, C.; Leuliette, E. W.

    2016-12-01

    NOAA has a new website to help coastal communities recognize past changes in regional sea level to better plan for a range of possible rise scenarios this century. The site compares 11 regionalized and coherent tide-gauge and satellite-altimeter sea level series from around the U.S. to estimate multi-decadal changes that have occurred in response to regional sea surface height-related trends and variability. Local relative trends are obtainable even without data from a local tide gauge when combined with estimates of vertical land motion, which can be obtained from several years of record from a GPS-based continuously operating reference system (CORS). The regionalized series will be updated annually and displayed relative to the most recent sea level rise scenarios of the (i.e., 2014) National Climate Assessment to characterize the regional sea level change trajectory for future planning of associated impacts.

  8. Will black carbon mitigation dampen aerosol indirect forcing?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, W.-T.; Lee, Y. H.; Adams, P. J.; Nenes, A.; Seinfeld, J. H.

    2010-05-01

    If mitigation of black carbon (BC) particulate matter is accompanied by a decrease in particle number emissions, and thereby by a decrease in global cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations, a decrease in global cloud radiative forcing (a reverse “cloud albedo effect”) results. We consider two present-day mitigation scenarios: 50% reduction of primary black carbon/organic carbon (BC/OC) mass and number emissions from fossil fuel combustion (termed HF), and 50% reduction of primary BC/OC mass and number emissions from all primary carbonaceous sources (fossil fuel, domestic biofuel, and biomass burning) (termed HC). Radiative forcing effects of these scenarios are assessed through present-day equilibrium climate simulations. Global average top-of-the-atmosphere changes in radiative forcing for the two scenarios, relative to present day conditions, are +0.13 ± 0.33 W m-2 (HF) and + 0.31 ± 0.33 W m-2 (HC).

  9. Sources of uncertainties in 21st century projections of potential ocean ecosystem stressors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frölicher, Thomas L.; Rodgers, Keith B.; Stock, Charles A.; Cheung, William W. L.

    2016-08-01

    Future projections of potential ocean ecosystem stressors, such as acidification, warming, deoxygenation, and changes in ocean productivity, are uncertain due to incomplete understanding of fundamental processes, internal climate variability, and divergent carbon emission scenarios. This complicates climate change impact assessments. We evaluate the relative importance of these uncertainty sources in projections of potential stressors as a function of projection lead time and spatial scale. Internally generated climate variability is the dominant source of uncertainty in middle-to-low latitudes and in most coastal large marine ecosystems over the next few decades, suggesting irreducible uncertainty inherent in these short projections. Uncertainty in projections of century-scale global sea surface temperature (SST), global thermocline oxygen, and regional surface pH is dominated by scenario uncertainty, highlighting the critical importance of policy decisions on carbon emissions. In contrast, uncertainty in century-scale projections of net primary productivity, low-oxygen waters, and Southern Ocean SST is dominated by model uncertainty, underscoring that the importance of overcoming deficiencies in scientific understanding and improved process representation in Earth system models are critical for making more robust projections these potential stressors. We also show that changes in the combined potential stressors emerge from the noise in 39% (34-44%) of the ocean by 2016-2035 relative to the 1986-2005 reference period and in 54% (50-60%) of the ocean by 2076-2095 following a high-carbon emission scenario. Projected large changes in surface pH and SST can be reduced substantially and rapidly with aggressive carbon emission mitigation but only marginally for oxygen. The regional importance of model uncertainty and internal variability underscores the need for expanded and improved multimodel and large initial condition ensemble projections with Earth system models

  10. SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

  11. Modeled changes in extreme wave climate for US and US-affiliated Pacific Islands during the 21st century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shope, J. B.; Storlazzi, C. D.; Erikson, L. H.; Hegermiller, C.

    2013-12-01

    Changes in future wave climates in the tropical Pacific Ocean from global climate change are not well understood. Waves are the dominant spatially- and temporally-varying processes that influence the coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of the islands throughout the tropical Pacific. Waves also impact the coastal infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and coastal-related economic activities of these islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast through 2100 using wind parameter outputs from four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project, Phase 5., for Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 that correspond to moderately mitigated and unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Wind fields from the global climate models were used to drive the global WAVEWATCH III wave model and generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific. Although the results show some spatial heterogeneity, overall, the December-February extreme significant wave heights increase from present to mid century and then decrease toward the end of the century; June-August extreme wave heights decrease throughout the century. Peak wave periods decrease west of the International Date Line through all seasons, whereas peak periods increase in the eastern half of the study area; these trends are smaller during December-February and greatest during June-August. Extreme wave directions in equatorial Micronesia during June-August undergo an approximate 30 degree counter-clockwise rotation from primarily northwest to west. The spatial patterns and trends are similar between the two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with the magnitude of the trends greater for the higher scenario.

  12. Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes

    SciTech Connect

    Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Chini, Louise Parsons; Hurtt, George; Edmonds, James A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Frolking, Steve; Wise, Marshall A.; Janetos, Anthony C.

    2010-11-16

    Land use change to meet 21st Century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will occur in the context of both a changing climate as well as societal efforts to mitigate climate change. This changing natural and human environment will have large consequences for forest resources, terrestrial carbon storage and emissions, and food and energy crop production over the next century. Any climate change mitigation policies enacted will change the environment under which land-use decisions are made and alter global land use change patterns. Here we use the GCAM integrated assessment model to explore how climate mitigation policies that achieve a climate stabilization at 4.5 W m-2 radiative forcing in 2100 and value carbon in terrestrial ecosystems interact with future agricultural productivity and food and energy demands to influence land use in the tropics. The regional land use results are downscaled from GCAM regions to produce gridded maps of tropical land use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved only in cases where a climate mitigation policy that values terrestrial carbon is in place, and crop productivity growth continues throughout the century. Crop productivity growth is also necessary to avoid large scale deforestation globally and enable the production of bioenergy crops. The terrestrial carbon pricing assumptions in GCAM are effective at avoiding deforestation even when cropland must expand to meet future food demand.

  13. The Implications of Deep Mitigation Pathways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvin, K. V.

    2016-12-01

    The 21st Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC agreement called for limiting climate change to "well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C." A climate target of 1.5°C places a stringent constraint on allowable emissions over the twenty-first century. Roegli et al. (2015) set that constraint at 200-415 GtCO2 between 2011 and 2100 for a likely chance of staying below 1.5°C in 2100. Limiting emissions to these levels requires that global emissions peak and decline over the coming decades, with net negative global emissions by mid-century. This level of decarbonization requires dramatic shifts in the energy and agricultural sectors, and comes at significant economic costs. This talk explores the effect of mitigating climate change to 1.5°C on the economy, energy system, and terrestrial system. We quantify the required deployment of various low carbon technologies, as well as the amount of existing capital that is abandoned in an effort to limit emissions. We show the shifts required in the terrestrial system, including its contribution to carbon sequestration through afforestation and bioenergy. Additionally, we show the implications of deep mitigation pathways on energy, food, and carbon prices. We contrast these results with a reference, no climate policy, world and a 2°C.

  14. Large increase in dissolved inorganic carbon flux from the Mississippi River to Gulf of Mexico due to climatic and anthropogenic changes over the 21st century.

    PubMed

    Ren, Wei; Tian, Hanqin; Tao, Bo; Yang, Jia; Pan, Shufen; Cai, Wei-Jun; Lohrenz, Steven E; He, Ruoying; Hopkinson, Charles S

    2015-04-01

    It is recognized that anthropogenic factors have had a major impact on carbon fluxes from land to the ocean during the past two centuries. However, little is known about how future changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use may affect riverine carbon fluxes over the 21st century. Using a coupled hydrological-biogeochemical model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, this study examines potential changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) export from the Mississippi River basin to the Gulf of Mexico during 2010-2099 attributable to climate-related conditions (temperature and precipitation), atmospheric CO2, and land use change. Rates of annual DIC export are projected to increase by 65% under the high emission scenario (A2) and 35% under the low emission scenario (B1) between the 2000s and the 2090s. Climate-related changes along with rising atmospheric CO2 together would account for over 90% of the total increase in DIC export throughout the 21st century. The predicted increase in DIC export from the Mississippi River basin would alter chemistry of the coastal ocean unless appropriate climate mitigation actions are taken in the near future.

  15. Landslides risk mitigation along lifelines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capparelli, G.; Versace, P.; Artese, G.; Costanzo, S.; Corsonello, P.; Di Massa, G.; Mendicino, G.; Maletta, D.; Leone, S.; Muto, F.; Senatore, A.; Troncone, A.; Conte, E.; Galletta, D.

    2012-04-01

    The paper describes an integrated, innovative and efficient solution to manage risk issues associated to landslides interfering with infrastructures. The research project was submitted for financial support in the framework of the Multi -regional Operational Programme 2007-13: Research and Competitiveness funded by the Ministry of Research (MIUR) and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The project is aimed to developing and demonstrating an integrated system of monitoring, early warning and mitigation of landslides risk. The final goal is to timely identify potentially dangerous landslides, and to activate all needed impact mitigation measures, including the information delivery. The essential components of the system include monitoring arrays, telecommunication networks and scenario simulation models, assisted by a data acquisition and processing centre, and a traffic control centres. Upon integration, the system will be experimentally validated and demonstrated over ca. 200 km of three highway sections, crossing the regions of Campania, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily. Progress in the state of art is represented by the developments in the field of environmental monitoring and in the mathematical modeling of landslides and by the development of services for traffic management. The approach to the problem corresponds to a "systemic logics" where each developed component foresees different interchangeable technological solutions to maximize the operational flexibility. The final system may be configured as a simple to complex structure, including different configurations to deal with different scenarios. Specifically, six different monitoring systems will be realized: three "point" systems, made up of a network of locally measuring sensors, and three "area" systems to remotely measure the displacements of large areas. Each network will be fully integrated and connected to a unique data transmission system. Standardized and shared procedures for the

  16. The mitigation of interpersonal behavior.

    PubMed

    Fournier, M A; Moskowitz, D S

    2000-11-01

    Theorists since D. Bakan (1966) have advocated the importance of mitigation for successful adaptation within the interpersonal domain. Although mitigation has previously been conceptualized as a balance between agency and communion (interdimensional mitigation), the circumplex framework suggests that mitigation may also be conceptualized as a balance within agency and a balance within communion (intradimensional mitigation). In the two present studies, participants collected records of their interpersonal behavior and affect subsequent to their social interactions for a period of 20 days. Random coefficient procedures were then used to examine these two contrasting models of mitigation in the prediction of affect. No empirical evidence of interdimensional mitigation was found. The findings suggest that agency and communion were each mitigated intradimensionally through moderate levels of behavioral expression.

  17. Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.

    PubMed

    Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling

    2010-04-01

    This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7.

  18. Mitigating Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davey, Victoria

    The emergence of new, transmissible infections poses a significant threat to human populations. As the 2009 novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic and the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic demonstrate, we have observed the effects of rapid spread of illness in non-immune populations and experienced disturbing uncertainty about future potential for human suffering and societal disruption. Clinical and epidemiologic characteristics of a newly emerged infectious organism are usually gathered in retrospect as the outbreak evolves and affects populations. Knowledge of potential effects of outbreaks and epidemics and most importantly, mitigation at community, regional, national and global levels is needed to inform policy that will prepare and protect people. Study of possible outcomes of evolving epidemics and application of mitigation strategies is not possible in observational or experimental research designs, but computational modeling allows conduct of `virtual' experiments. Results of well-designed computer simulations can aid in the selection and implementation of strategies that limit illness and death, and maintain systems of healthcare and other critical resources that are vital to public protection. Mitigating Infectious Disease Outbreaks.

  19. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios describe emission developments in 26 world regions for the 21st century, using a matrix of climate and air pollution policies. For climate policy, the study uses a baseline resulting in forcing levels slightly above RCP6.0 and an ambitious climate policy scenario similar to RCP2.6. For air pollution, the study explores increasingly tight emission standards, ranging from no improvement, current legislation and three variants assuming further improvements. For all pollutants, the results show that more stringent control policies are needed after 2030 to prevent a rise in emissions due to increased activities and further reduce emissions. The results also show that climate mitigation policies have the highest impact on SO2 and NOX emissions, while their impact on BC and OC emissions is relatively low, determined by the overlap between greenhouse gas and air pollutant emission sources. Climate policy can have important co-benefits; a 10% decrease in global CO2 emissions by 2100 leads to a decrease of SO2 and NOX emissions by about 10% and 5%, respectively compared to 2005 levels. In most regions, low levels of air pollutant emissions can also be achieved by solely implementing stringent air pollution policies. The largest differences across the scenarios are found in Asia and other developing regions, where a combination of climate and air pollution policy is needed to bring air pollution levels below those of today.

  20. Historical and 21st century projection of ocean acidification, its impacts on aragonite and calcite cycling and subsequent feedbacks in an Earth System Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunne, J. P.; John, J. G.

    2011-12-01

    We assess the ocean's present and future ability to take up anthropogenic carbon and the impact of this ocean acidification in the fully coupled biogeochemical context using NOAA/GFDL's earth system model (ESM2M). The ocean biogeochemical component of ESM2M includes representations of pelagic calcite cycling as a function of supersaturation and small phytoplankton grazing, pelagic aragonite cycling as a function of supersaturation and large phytoplankton grazing, and sediment calcite cycling based on a box model representation of bottom water saturation state and the incoming fluxes of calcitic, organic and lithogenic material. The model was forced with historical and future projections of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of radiatively active gases as part of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Consistent with observations, the ESM2M ocean takes up 2.1 PgC a^-^1 at the end of the 20th century. Under the highest emissions scenario of an 8.5 W m^-^2 targeted radiative forcing with CO2 concentrations of 936 ppm by 2100 (RCP8.5), ESM2M takes up 6.1 PgC a^-^1 at the end of the 21^s^t century. We describe the geographical and vertical extent of ocean acidification and depression of aragonite and calcite saturation states that result in this model. In global comparison with preindustrial conditions, ESM2M suggests severe ecological consequences of acidification under the RCP8.5 scenario with aragonite production being depressed by 17% at the end of the 20^t^h century and 72% at the end of the 21^s^t Century and calcite production being depressed by 16% at the end of the 20^t^h century and 67% at the end of the 21^s^t Century. These results are consistent with previous studies that have similarly assumed linear dependence of aragonite and calcite production with the degree of supersaturation. In terms of acidification mitigation feedbacks, these responses combine to provide additional acid neutralizing capacity in the surface ocean of 0.23 PgC a

  1. Synoptic analysis of heat waves in the Barcelona city (Catalonia, Spain) during 21st century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amaro, Jéssica; Peña, Juan Carlos; Miró, Josep Ramon; Aran, Montserrat

    2017-04-01

    The impact of extremely warm episodes on health has been analysed by a large number of studies conducted in different countries and cities, showing that heat waves events (HWE) can cause an abrupt increase in mortality. A HWE was defined as a 7-day sequence following a key-day labelled by the 95th percentile of Barcelona daily mortality (see Peña et al., 2015). The aim of this study is to identify synoptic patterns associated to HWE in Barcelona over the 21st century and evaluate the impact and possible mitigations. To achieve it, a multivariate analysis (MVA) integrating different atmospheric levels (sea level pressure, temperature at 850 hPa and geopotential at 500 hPa) was undertaken. The observed data used for this study was the 20th Century Reanalysis. The Max Planck Institute Earth system model was used to study two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) during the 21st century. The model was calibrated given the variability in the climate scenario, using the Quantile-Quantile mapping transformation (Q-Q). The MVA applied to the observed period (1990-2015) distinguish three main synoptic patterns: two dynamic configurations produced by southern fluxes related to an Atlantic low, associated with HWE recorded in southern Europe, and a third pattern identified by a stagnation situation related to persistent anticyclone periods. These patterns were also detected in the control simulated period (1961-2005) after the Q-Q calibration, preserving, therefore, the climatic variability: the number of HWE during the warm period (1990-2005) is twice more than during the cold period (1976-1989) due to an intensification of the warm masses. In the RCP 4.5 scenario (2006-2100 period) a positive and significant trend is shown in synoptic patterns which provoke HWE in Barcelona, especially during August; in the RCP 8.5 scenario there is no significant trend, but the intensification of the warm masses is higher.

  2. Mitigating residential exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klepeis, Neil E.; Nazaroff, William W.

    In a companion paper, we used a simulation model to explore secondhand tobacco smoke (SHS) exposures for typical conditions in residences. In the current paper, we extend this analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of physical mitigation approaches in reducing nonsmokers' exposure to airborne SHS particulate matter in a hypothetical 6-zone house. Measures investigated included closing doors or opening windows in response to smoking activity, modifying location patterns to segregate the nonsmoker and the active smoker, and operating particle filtration devices. We first performed 24 scripted simulation trials using hypothetical patterns of occupant location. We then performed cohort simulation trials across 25 mitigation scenarios using over 1000 pairs of nonsmoker and smoker time-location patterns that were selected from a survey of human activity patterns in US homes. We limited cohort pairs to cases where more than 10 cigarettes were smoked indoors at home each day and the nonsmoker was at home for more than two thirds of the day. We evaluated the effectiveness of each mitigation approach by examining its impact on the simulated frequency distribution of residential SHS particle exposure. The two most effective strategies were the isolation of the smoker in a closed room with an open window, and a ban on smoking whenever the nonsmoker was at home. The use of open windows to supply local or cross ventilation, or the operation of portable filtration devices in smoking rooms, provided moderate exposure reductions. Closed doors, by themselves, were not effective.

  3. Space debris mitigation measures in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adimurthy, V.; Ganeshan, A. S.

    2006-02-01

    The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) recognizes the importance of the current space debris scenario, and the impact it has on the effective utilization of space technology for the improvement in the quality of life on the Earth. ISRO is committed to effective management of the threats due to space debris. Towards this commitment ISRO works on different aspects of space debris, including the debris mitigation measures. This paper highlights the activities and achievements in the implementation of the mitigation measures. ISRO successfully designed and developed a propellant venting system for implementation in the existing upper stage of India's Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV), which uses Earth-storable liquid propellants. GSLV also employs passivation of the Cryogenic Upper Stage at the end of its useful mission. ISRO's communication satellites in GSO are designed with adequate propellant margins for re-orbiting at the end of their useful life to a higher graveyard orbit. A typical successful operation in connection with INSAT-2C is described. ISRO developed its debris environmental models and software to predict the close approach of any of the debris to the functional satellites. The software are regularly used for the debris risk management of the orbiting spacecraft and launch vehicles. ISRO recognizes the role of international cooperation in the debris mitigation measures and actively contributes to the efforts of the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) and United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNCOPUOS).

  4. Implications of climate mitigation for future agricultural production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate ∼81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure

  5. Implications of Climate Mitigation for Future Agricultural Production

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mueller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate approximately 81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many

  6. The New Space Debris Mitigation (SDM 4.0) Long Term Evolution Code

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, A.; Anselmo, L.; Pardini, C.; Jehn, R.; Valsecchi, G. B.

    2009-03-01

    The main new features in the Space Debris Mitigation long-term analysis program (SDM) recently upgraded to Version 4.0 are described. They include new or upgraded orbital propagators, two new collision probability algorithms, upgraded mitigation scenarios and new post-processing routines. The results of a set of simulations of the long term evolution of the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) environment are decribed. A No Future Launches, a Business as Usual and a Mitigated scenario are simulated, showing the need to adopt all the feasible proposed mitigation measures, in order to reduce the proliferation of orbiting debris. In particular, the mitigation measures proposed in this study appear capable of strongly reducing the growth of the 10 cm and larger population, but not enough to fully stabilize critical regions, such as the shell in the 800-1000 km altitude range.

  7. How much land-based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals?

    PubMed

    Smith, Pete; Haberl, Helmut; Popp, Alexander; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Lauk, Christian; Harper, Richard; Tubiello, Francesco N; de Siqueira Pinto, Alexandre; Jafari, Mostafa; Sohi, Saran; Masera, Omar; Böttcher, Hannes; Berndes, Göran; Bustamante, Mercedes; Ahammad, Helal; Clark, Harry; Dong, Hongmin; Elsiddig, Elnour A; Mbow, Cheikh; Ravindranath, Nijavalli H; Rice, Charles W; Robledo Abad, Carmenza; Romanovskaya, Anna; Sperling, Frank; Herrero, Mario; House, Joanna I; Rose, Steven

    2013-08-01

    Feeding 9-10 billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greatest challenges facing humanity. Both challenges must be met while reducing the impact of land management on ecosystem services that deliver vital goods and services, and support human health and well-being. Few studies to date have considered the interactions between these challenges. In this study we briefly outline the challenges, review the supply- and demand-side climate mitigation potential available in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use AFOLU sector and options for delivering food security. We briefly outline some of the synergies and trade-offs afforded by mitigation practices, before presenting an assessment of the mitigation potential possible in the AFOLU sector under possible future scenarios in which demand-side measures codeliver to aid food security. We conclude that while supply-side mitigation measures, such as changes in land management, might either enhance or negatively impact food security, demand-side mitigation measures, such as reduced waste or demand for livestock products, should benefit both food security and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Demand-side measures offer a greater potential (1.5-15.6 Gt CO2 -eq. yr(-1) ) in meeting both challenges than do supply-side measures (1.5-4.3 Gt CO2 -eq. yr(-1) at carbon prices between 20 and 100 US$ tCO2 -eq. yr(-1) ), but given the enormity of challenges, all options need to be considered. Supply-side measures should be implemented immediately, focussing on those that allow the production of more agricultural product per unit of input. For demand-side measures, given the difficulties in their implementation and lag in their effectiveness, policy should be introduced quickly, and should aim to codeliver to other policy agenda, such as improving environmental quality or improving dietary health. These problems facing humanity in the 21st Century are extremely challenging, and policy that

  8. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther

    2008-10-01

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'—'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  9. Extended MHD simulations for application to ITER disruption mitigation techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woodruff, Simon; Stuber, James; Schetterer, Sam; ITER Disruption Mitigation Collaboration

    2013-10-01

    Various disruption scenarios are modeled computationally by use of the CORSICA and NIMROD codes, following the work of Kruger and Strauss with the aim of providing starting-points for investigation of tokamak disruption mitigation techniques. It is found that pressure-driven instabilities previously observed in simulations of DIII-D are verified, and that halo currents from vertical displacements are observed in simulations with implementation of resistive walls for ITER. We discuss implications and plans for simulations of disruption mitigation techniques. We outline validation activities for existing facilities. Work performed for USITER under DE-AC05-00OR22725 subcontract # 4000118643.

  10. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rieley, James B.

    1997-01-01

    Proposes scenario planning in preparing for the future of higher education. Delineates a methodology for effective scenario planning: identifying potential future scenarios; examining social, economic, political, environmental, and technological influences; exploring mental models while looking through systems maps, and developing potential…

  11. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    SciTech Connect

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  12. Scenarios of energy demand and efficiency potential for Bulgaria

    SciTech Connect

    Tzvetanov, P.; Ruicheva, M.; Denisiev, M.

    1996-12-31

    The paper presents aggregated results on macroeconomic and final energy demand scenarios developed within the Bulgarian Country Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation, supported by US Country Studies Program. The studies in this area cover 5 main stages: (1) {open_quotes}Baseline{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}Energy Efficiency{close_quotes} socioeconomic and energy policy philosophy; (2) Modeling of macroeconomic and sectoral development till 2020; (3) Expert assessments on the technological options for energy efficiency increase and GHG mitigation in the Production, Transport and Households and Services Sectors; (4) Bottom-up modeling of final energy demand; and (5) Sectoral and overall energy efficiency potential and policy. Within the Bulgarian Country Study, the presented results have served as a basis for the final integration stage {open_quotes}Assessment of the Mitigation Policy and Measures in the Energy System of Bulgaria{close_quotes}.

  13. Protected Areas' Role in Climate-change Mitigation in Northern Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kicklighter, David; Lu, Xiaoliang; Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Melillo, Jerry; Reilly, John; Zhuang, Qianlai

    2016-04-01

    In Northern Eurasia, about 2.0 million square kilometers of land are currently identified as protected areas, which provide society with many ecosystem services including climate-change mitigation. These areas represent about 13% of the protected areas identified across the globe. Combining a global database of protected areas, a reconstruction of global land-use history, and a terrestrial biogeochemistry model, we estimate that protected areas in Northern Eurasia currently sequester 0.05 Pg C annually, which is about one tenth of the carbon sequestered by all land ecosystems annually in this region (0.5 Pg C/yr) and also about one tenth of the carbon sequestered in all protected areas across the globe. Using an integrated earth systems model to generate climate and land-use scenarios for the 21st century, we project that rapid climate change, similar to high-end projections in the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, would cause the annual carbon sequestration rate in the protected areas of Northern Eurasia to increase to about 0.07 Pg C/yr by 2100. In contrast, the annual carbon sequestration rate for all protected areas across the globe drops to 0.3 Pg C/yr by the end of the 21st century. For the scenario with both rapid climate change and extensive land-use change driven by population and economic pressures so that development encroaches upon designated "protected areas", we project that 0.6 million square kilometers of the protected areas in Northern Eurasia would be converted to other uses (10.7% of global protected area losses), and carbon sequestration in the remaining protected areas of Northern Eurasia would drop to 0.03 Pg C/yr by 2100. This small regional carbon sink is compensated by carbon losses in the remaining protected areas outside of the region so that overall no net carbon would be sequestered by global protected areas at the end of the 21st century if these areas are not truly protected.

  14. Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pendergrass, Angeline; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin; Xu, Yangyang

    2016-04-01

    The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and therefore depends on the change in composition of the emissions scenario used to drive climate model simulations for the remainder of the century. We investigate whether or not this is also the case for extreme precipitation simulated by a multi-model ensemble driven by four realistic emissions scenarios. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily rainfall per degree global warming in the multi-model ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extra-tropical land. These results indicate that, in most models, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario, in contrast to mean precipitation.

  15. Zebra mussel mitigation; overview

    SciTech Connect

    Claudi, R.

    1995-06-01

    Zebra mussels cause a number of problems to industrial raw water users as well as having serious impact on civil structures exposed to mussel infested waters. The largest volume of water (up to 90% of the total) drawn into most industrial and power generating plants, is for cooling and heat transfer. The rest of the volume is used for other plant processes, such as make-up in steam systems, and service systems used for cleaning, air conditions, fire protection and human consumption. All raw water systems are vulnerable to zebra mussel infestation to greater or lesser degree. To-date, many different chemical and non-chemical techniques for zebra mussel control have been investigated. However, the treatment of choice for most facilities is based on chemical control. This has been the common practice in Europe and so far it has been the case in North America. This is likely to change as the environmental constraints on release of chemicals into natural water bodies continue to increase. This paper deals with the different steps raw water users should take when deciding on a mitigation strategy, the mitigation measures available to-date and those that have been proposed for the control of zebra mussels in industrial systems.

  16. RFI Mitigation / Excision techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roshi, D. A.

    2004-06-01

    Radio frequency interference (RFI) is increasingly affecting radio astronomy research. A few years ago, active research to investigate the possibility of observing in the presence of interference using RFI mitigation techniques was initiated. In this paper, I briefly discuss four RFI mitigation/excision projects. These projects are:- (1) A technique to suppress double sideband amplitude modulated interference in which I show that an astronomical signal in the presence of a DSB interference can be observed with a signal-to-noise ratio factor of 2 less compared to observations if the RFI were not present. (2) Techniques to suppress interference due to synchronization signals in composite video signals are presented. A combination of noise-free modelling of the synchronization signals and adaptive filtering is used for suppressing the interference. (3) Design techniques to minimize spurious pick-up at the analog input of an analog-to-digital converter are discussed. (4) Spectral RFI excision using a spectral channel weighted scheme and its application to Green Bank telescope observations are also presented.

  17. Sarin exposure: a simulation case scenario.

    PubMed

    Eason, Martin P

    2013-01-01

    Given the current geopolitical tensions, the risk of a terrorist attack on the United States is constant and increasing. Chemical terrorism, specifically the use of nerve agents, has occurred in other nations. Because of the ease of manufacture, the ability to conceal them, and the lethality of these agents, they pose a potential threat as a weapon of terror. Nerve agent exposure requires prompt recognition, a series of actions to mitigate further exposure to others, and management of the physiological sequelae of exposure. Many civilian healthcare providers are unprepared to manage injuries from nerve exposure. Failure to recognize the signs of nerve agent exposure will increase mortality and morbidity in victims and place healthcare providers at risk. Simulation is an effective methodology to train healthcare personnel in disaster preparedness. This article presents a simulation scenario that reviews the presentation of nerve agent exposure, its management, and a recipe for performing this simulation in a training exercise.

  18. Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management

    SciTech Connect

    Hirsch, R.L.; Bezdek, Roger; Wendling, Robert

    2005-02-01

    The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.

  19. Biomass Energy for Transport and Electricity: Large scale utilization under low CO2 concentration scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Luckow, Patrick; Wise, Marshall A.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.

    2010-01-25

    This paper examines the potential role of large scale, dedicated commercial biomass energy systems under global climate policies designed to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at 400ppm and 450ppm. We use an integrated assessment model of energy and agriculture systems to show that, given a climate policy in which terrestrial carbon is appropriately valued equally with carbon emitted from the energy system, biomass energy has the potential to be a major component of achieving these low concentration targets. The costs of processing and transporting biomass energy at much larger scales than current experience are also incorporated into the modeling. From the scenario results, 120-160 EJ/year of biomass energy is produced by midcentury and 200-250 EJ/year by the end of this century. In the first half of the century, much of this biomass is from agricultural and forest residues, but after 2050 dedicated cellulosic biomass crops become the dominant source. A key finding of this paper is the role that carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies coupled with commercial biomass energy can play in meeting stringent emissions targets. Despite the higher technology costs of CCS, the resulting negative emissions used in combination with biomass are a very important tool in controlling the cost of meeting a target, offsetting the venting of CO2 from sectors of the energy system that may be more expensive to mitigate, such as oil use in transportation. The paper also discusses the role of cellulosic ethanol and Fischer-Tropsch biomass derived transportation fuels and shows that both technologies are important contributors to liquid fuels production, with unique costs and emissions characteristics. Through application of the GCAM integrated assessment model, it becomes clear that, given CCS availability, bioenergy will be used both in electricity and transportation.

  20. Europe's forest management did not mitigate climate warming.

    PubMed

    Naudts, Kim; Chen, Yiying; McGrath, Matthew J; Ryder, James; Valade, Aude; Otto, Juliane; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan

    2016-02-05

    Afforestation and forest management are considered to be key instruments in mitigating climate change. Here we show that since 1750, in spite of considerable afforestation, wood extraction has led to Europe's forests accumulating a carbon debt of 3.1 petagrams of carbon. We found that afforestation is responsible for an increase of 0.12 watts per square meter in the radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere, whereas an increase of 0.12 kelvin in summertime atmospheric boundary layer temperature was mainly caused by species conversion. Thus, two and a half centuries of forest management in Europe have not cooled the climate. The political imperative to mitigate climate change through afforestation and forest management therefore risks failure, unless it is recognized that not all forestry contributes to climate change mitigation.

  1. Early benefits of mitigation in risk of regional climate extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciavarella, Andrew; Stott, Peter; Lowe, Jason

    2017-04-01

    Large differences in climate outcomes are projected by the end of this century depending on whether greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase or are reduced sufficiently to limit total warming to below 2 °C (ref. ). However, it is generally thought that benefits of mitigation are hidden by internal climate variability until later in the century. Here we show that if the likelihood of extremely hot seasons is considered, the benefits of mitigation emerge more quickly than previously thought. It takes less than 20 years of emissions reductions in many regions for the likelihood of extreme seasonal warmth to reduce by more than half following initiation of mitigation. Additionally we show that the latest possible date at which the probability of extreme seasonal temperatures will be halved through emissions reductions consistent with the 2 °C target is in the 2040s. Exposure to climate risk is therefore reduced markedly and rapidly with substantial reductions of greenhouse gas emissions, demonstrating that the early mitigation needed to limit eventual warming below potentially dangerous levels benefits societies in the nearer term not just in the longer-term future.

  2. Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050.

    PubMed

    Güneralp, Burak; Zhou, Yuyu; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Gupta, Mukesh; Yu, Sha; Patel, Pralit L; Fragkias, Michail; Li, Xiaoma; Seto, Karen C

    2017-01-09

    Although the scale of impending urbanization is well-acknowledged, we have a limited understanding of how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use for heating and cooling. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by the middle of the century will be between 45 and 59 exajoules per year (corresponding to an increase of 7-40% since 2010). Most of this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban densities of rapidly growing cities in Asia and particularly China. Dense urban development leads to less urban energy use overall. Waiting to retrofit the existing built environment until markets are ready in about 5 years to widely deploy the most advanced renovation technologies leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared with the business-as-usual scenario in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contributes to energy savings in North America and Europe. Systemic efforts that focus on both urban form, of which urban density is an indicator, and energy-efficient technologies, but that also account for potential co-benefits and trade-offs with human well-being can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in growing cities in the developing world, such efforts can improve the well-being of billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas.

  3. Preparation of high resolution climate scenarios for agricultural impact analysis in Hungary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobor, L.; Barcza, Z.; Havasi, Á.; Fodor, N.

    2012-04-01

    Climate change may significantly alter agricultural productivity which could directly affect food security in several parts of the world during the 21st century. In order to mitigate the robust effects of climate change, agriculture related impact studies are needed. Reliable regional climate model (RCM) based scenarios are essential to realistic estimations of the potential effects of the changing climate conditions. Every climate model suffers from systematic errors (e.g. under- or overestimation the amount and frequency of precipitation), which may prevent direct application of the RCM results for agricultural purposes. There are several bias correction strategies to correct those errors in the RCM datasets. Our main aim is to correct the available, state-of-the-art RCM results to prepare complex impact studies for the Carpathian Basin. The overarching aim is to estimate the expected changes of agricultural productivity in Hungary. In this study eight RCM experiments are used that were created and disseminated within the framework of the ENSEMBLES FP6 project. After statistical bias correction the daily data is used to drive the 4Mx crop simulation mode which is a daily-step, deterministic model that simulates the water and nutrient balance of the soil, the soil-plant interactions as well as the plant development and growth. 4Mx was developed in the Research Institute for Soil Science and Agricultural Chemistry of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. In the present study the effect of bias correction on the climate scenarios as well as on selected crop simulation results is demonstrated.

  4. Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050

    PubMed Central

    Güneralp, Burak; Zhou, Yuyu; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Gupta, Mukesh; Yu, Sha; Patel, Pralit L.; Fragkias, Michail; Li, Xiaoma; Seto, Karen C.

    2017-01-01

    Although the scale of impending urbanization is well-acknowledged, we have a limited understanding of how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use for heating and cooling. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by the middle of the century will be between 45 and 59 exajoules per year (corresponding to an increase of 7–40% since 2010). Most of this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban densities of rapidly growing cities in Asia and particularly China. Dense urban development leads to less urban energy use overall. Waiting to retrofit the existing built environment until markets are ready in about 5 years to widely deploy the most advanced renovation technologies leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared with the business-as-usual scenario in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contributes to energy savings in North America and Europe. Systemic efforts that focus on both urban form, of which urban density is an indicator, and energy-efficient technologies, but that also account for potential co-benefits and trade-offs with human well-being can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in growing cities in the developing world, such efforts can improve the well-being of billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas. PMID:28069957

  5. Puerto Rico Tsunami Warning and Mitigation Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huerfano, V. A.; Mercado, A.; von Hillebrandt, C. G.

    2003-12-01

    tsunami scenarios on the basis of the parameters of potential underwater earthquakes were developed. Secondly, each of these earthquakes source scenarios was simulated. The third step was to determine the worst case scenario for a tectonically generated tsunami throughout Puerto Rico. The runups were drawn on GIS referenced topographic maps and aerial photographs. These products are being used by the local, state and federal emergency managers to educate the public and develop mitigation strategies. Based on these maps tsunami warning signs are being installed throughout the potentially affected zones and are a very important component of the TWS.

  6. Mitigation Options in Forestry, Land-Use, Change and Biomass Burning in Africa

    SciTech Connect

    Makundi, Willy R.

    1998-06-01

    Mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in land use sectors are describe in some detail. The paper highlights those options in the forestry sector, which are more relevant to different parts of Africa. It briefly outlines a bottom-up methodological framework for comprehensively assessing mitigation options in land use sectors. This method emphasizes the application of end-use demand projections to construct a baseline and mitigation scenarios and explicitly addresses the carbon storage potential on land and in wood products, as well as use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels. Cost-effectiveness indicators for ranking mitigation options are proposed, including those, which account for non-carbon monetary benefits such as those derived from forest products, as well as opportunity cost of pursuing specific mitigation option. The paper finally surveys the likely policies, barriers and incentives to implement such mitigation options in African countries .

  7. Estimating the supply and demand for deep geologic CO2 storage capacity over the course of the 21st Century: A meta-analysis of the literature

    SciTech Connect

    Dooley, James J.

    2013-08-05

    Whether there is sufficient geologic CO2 storage capacity to allow CCS to play a significant role in mitigating climate change has been the subject of debate since the 1990s. This paper presents a meta- analysis of a large body of recently published literature to derive updated estimates of the global deep geologic storage resource as well as the potential demand for this geologic CO2 storage resource over the course of this century. This analysis reveals that, for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation scenarios that have end-of-century atmospheric CO2 concentrations of between 350 ppmv and 725 ppmv, the average demand for deep geologic CO2 storage over the course of this century is between 410 GtCO2 and 1,670 GtCO2. The literature summarized here suggests that -- depending on the stringency of criteria applied to calculate storage capacity – global geologic CO2 storage capacity could be: 35,300 GtCO2 of “theoretical” capacity; 13,500 GtCO2 of “effective” capacity; 3,900 GtCO2, of “practical” capacity; and 290 GtCO2 of “matched” capacity for the few regions where this narrow definition of capacity has been calculated. The cumulative demand for geologic CO2 storage is likely quite small compared to global estimates of the deep geologic CO2 storage capacity, and therefore, a “lack” of deep geologic CO2 storage capacity is unlikely to be an impediment for the commercial adoption of CCS technologies in this century.

  8. Economically consistent long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J.; West, Jason; Kyle, G. Page

    2011-09-08

    Pollutant emissions such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone precursors substantially influence climate. While future century-scale scenarios for these emissions have become more realistic through the inclusion of emission controls, they still potentially lack consistency between surface pollutant concentrations and regional levels of affluence. We demonstrate a methodology combining use of an integrated assessment model and a three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport model, whereby a reference scenario is constructed by requiring consistent surface pollutant levels as a function of regional income over the 21st century. By adjusting air pollutant emission control parameters, we improve agreement between modeled PM2.5 and economic income among world regions through time; agreement for ozone is also improved but is more difficult to achieve because of the strong influence of upwind world regions. The scenario examined here was used as the basis for one of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. This analysis methodology could also be used to examine the consistency of other pollutant emission scenarios.

  9. Volcano hazard mitigation program in Indonesia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sudradjat, A.

    1990-01-01

    Volcanological investigations in Indonesia were started in the 18th century, when Valentijn in 1726 prepared a chronological report of the eruption of Banda Api volcno, Maluku. Modern and intensive volcanological studies did not begin until the catastrophic eruption of Kelut volcano, East Java, in 1919. The eruption took 5,011 lives and destroyed thousands of acres of coffee plantation. An eruption lahar generated by the crater lake water mixed with volcanic eruptions products was the cause of death for a high number of victims. An effort to mitigate the danger from volcanic eruption was first initiated in 1921 by constructing a tunnel to drain the crater lake water of Kelut volcano. At the same time a Volcanological Survey was established by the government with the responsibility of seeking every means for minimizing the hazard caused by volcanic eruption. 

  10. CO2 emissions mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies

    SciTech Connect

    Bauer, Nico; Bosetti, Valentina; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Kitous, Alban; McCollum, David; Mejean, Aurelie; Rao, Shilpa; Turton, Hal; Paroussos, Leonidas; Ashina, Shuichi; Calvin, Katherine V.; Wada, Kenichi; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short- and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use are much smaller, particularly until 2030, but revenues decrease much more because oil and gas prices are higher and decrease with mitigation. A first deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes global emission targets until 2030, in accordance with the Copenhagen pledges and regionally-specific low-carbon technology targets. Fossil fuel markets revert back to the no-policy case: though coal use increases strongest, revenue gains are higher for oil and gas. To balance the carbon budget over the 21st century, the long-term reallocation of fossil fuels is significantly larger - twice and more - than the short-term distortion. This amplifying effect results from coal lock-in and inter-fuel substitution effects. The second deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes the global participation assumption. The result here is less clear cut across models, as we find carbon leakage effects ranging from positive to negative because leakage and substitution patterns of coal, oil, and gas differ. In summary, distortions of fossil fuel markets resulting from relaxed short-term global emission targets are more important and less uncertain than the issue of carbon leakage from early mover action.

  11. Mitigation of Regional Temperature Extremes with Climate-Effective Land Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirsch, Annette; Wilhelm, Micah; Davin, Edouard; Thiery, Wim; Seneviratne, Sonia

    2017-04-01

    Limiting global warming to well below 2 ˚C is an imminent challenge for humanity. However even if this global target can be met, some regions are still likely to experience substantial warming relative to others. Using idealized global climate simulations we examine the potential of land management options in affecting regional climate, with a focus on crop albedo enhancement and irrigation (Climate-effective Land Management). The implementation is performed over all crop regions globally to provide an upper bound. We find that the implementation of both crop albedo enhancement and irrigation can reduce hot temperature extremes by more than 2 ˚C in North America, Eurasia and India over the 21st century relative to a scenario without management application. The efficacy of crop albedo enhancement scales linearly with the magnitude, where a cooling response exceeding 0.5 ˚C was achieved with a large (i.e. ≥ 0.08) change in land surface albedo. We use a surface energy balance decomposition to evaluate regional differences in the response of temperature extremes to Climate-effective Land Management. Regional differences were attributed to the surface energy balance response with temperature changes mostly explained by latent heat flux changes for irrigation and net shortwave radiation changes for crop albedo enhancement. Our results overall demonstrate that regional warming of hot extremes in our climate model can be partially mitigated when using an idealized treatment of Climate-effective Land Management.

  12. Novel Ice Mitigation Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2008-01-01

    After the loss of Columbia, there was great concern in the Space Shuttle program for the impact of debris against the leading edges of the Orbiter wings. It was quickly recognized that, in addition to impacts by foam, ice that formed on the liquid-oxygen bellows running down the outside of the External Tank could break free during launch and hit this sensitive area. A Center Director s Discretionary Fund (CDDF) project would concentrate on novel ideas that were potentially applicable. The most successful of the new concepts for ice mitigation involved shape memory alloy materials. These materials can be bent into a given shape and, when heated, will return to their original shape.

  13. Climate change and mitigation.

    PubMed

    Nibleus, Kerstin; Lundin, Rickard

    2010-01-01

    Planet Earth has experienced repeated changes of its climate throughout time. Periods warmer than today as well as much colder, during glacial episodes, have alternated. In our time, rapid population growth with increased demand for natural resources and energy, has made society increasingly vulnerable to environmental changes, both natural and those caused by man; human activity is clearly affecting the radiation balance of the Earth. In the session "Climate Change and Mitigation" the speakers offered four different views on coal and CO2: the basis for life, but also a major hazard with impact on Earth's climate. A common denominator in the presentations was that more than ever science and technology is required. We need not only understand the mechanisms for climate change and climate variability, we also need to identify means to remedy the anthropogenic influence on Earth's climate.

  14. Space Debris & its Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaushal, Sourabh; Arora, Nishant

    2012-07-01

    Space debris has become a growing concern in recent years, since collisions at orbital velocities can be highly damaging to functioning satellites and can also produce even more space debris in the process. Some spacecraft, like the International Space Station, are now armored to deal with this hazard but armor and mitigation measures can be prohibitively costly when trying to protect satellites or human spaceflight vehicles like the shuttle. This paper describes the current orbital debris environment, outline its main sources, and identify mitigation measures to reduce orbital debris growth by controlling these sources. We studied the literature on the topic Space Debris. We have proposed some methods to solve this problem of space debris. We have also highlighted the shortcomings of already proposed methods by space experts and we have proposed some modification in those methods. Some of them can be very effective in the process of mitigation of space debris, but some of them need some modification. Recently proposed methods by space experts are maneuver, shielding of space elevator with the foil, vaporizing or redirecting of space debris back to earth with the help of laser, use of aerogel as a protective layer, construction of large junkyards around international space station, use of electrodynamics tether & the latest method proposed is the use of nano satellites in the clearing of the space debris. Limitations of the already proposed methods are as follows: - Maneuvering can't be the final solution to our problem as it is the act of self-defence. - Shielding can't be done on the parts like solar panels and optical devices. - Vaporizing or redirecting of space debris can affect the human life on earth if it is not done in proper manner. - Aerogel has a threshold limit up to which it can bear (resist) the impact of collision. - Large junkyards can be effective only for large sized debris. In this paper we propose: A. The Use of Nano Tubes by creating a mesh

  15. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ross, Stephanie; Jones, Lucile

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  16. Mission Scenario Development Workbench

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David; Mandutianu, Dan; Hooper, David

    2006-01-01

    The Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW) is a multidisciplinary performance analysis software tool for planning and optimizing space missions. It provides a number of new capabilities that are particularly useful for planning the surface activities on other planets. MSDW enables rapid planning of a space mission and supports flight system and scientific-instrumentation trades. It also provides an estimate of the ability of flight, ground, and science systems to meet high-level mission goals and provides means of evaluating expected mission performance at an early stage of planning in the project life cycle. In MSDW, activity plans and equipment-list spreadsheets are integrated with validated parameterized simulation models of spacecraft systems. In contrast to traditional approaches involving worst-case estimates with large margins, the approach embodied in MSDW affords more flexibility and more credible results early in the lifecycle through the use of validated, variable- fidelity models of spacecraft systems. MSDW is expected to help maximize the scientific return on investment for space missions by understanding early the performance required to have a successful mission while reducing the risk of costly design changes made at late stages in the project life cycle.

  17. Apparatus and Methods for Mitigating Electromagnetic Emissions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Geng, Steven M. (Inventor); Niedra, Janis M. (Inventor)

    2013-01-01

    Apparatus, methods, and other embodiments associated with mitigation of magnetic fields are described herein. In an embodiment, a method for mitigating an electromagnetic field includes positioning a mitigating coil around a linear alternator of linear motor so that the mitigating coil is coaxially located with an alternator coil; arranging the mitigating coil to generate a field to mitigate an electromagnetic field generated by the alternator coil; and passing an induced current from the alternator coil through the mitigating coil.

  18. Apparatus and Methods for Mitigating Electromagnetic Emissions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Geng, Steven M. (Inventor); Niedra, Janis M. (Inventor)

    2016-01-01

    Apparatus, methods, and other embodiments associated with mitigation of magnetic fields are described herein. In an embodiment, a method for mitigating an electromagnetic field includes positioning a mitigating coil around a linear alternator of linear motor so that the mitigating coil is coaxially located with an alternator coil; arranging the mitigating coil to generate a field to mitigate an electromagnetic field generated by the alternator coil; and passing an induced current from the alternator coil through the mitigating coil.

  19. Effects and mitigation of multipath on GPS/Galileo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Yi; Wang, Qing; Pan, Shuguo; He, Jun

    2007-11-01

    A conventional method to mitigate multipath errors in GNSS receivers is the strobe correlator, which achieves discriminator function shaping by combining two different narrow-correlator discriminators [1] [2]. The method performs a good performance when the difference in delays of direct and reflected signal is biggish in GPS scenario. Nevertheless, the performance of the method is not so good for Galileo scenario. The advent of the European navigation system Galileo has made it an exigent requirement to develop the receiver that can track Galileo signals as well as GPS signals. So, a better way should be groped for to mitigate both GPS and Galileo multipath errors. In the paper, a novel multipath mitigation scheme, named Early-Late Strobe Correlator (ELSC), was presented for both GPS and Galileo signals. By the Matlab simulation to the method, multipath errors could be mitigated effectively by using ELSC, especially to Galileo signals. The experiment results show that more excellent performances can be obtained by adopting ELSC presented in the paper with respected to the strobe correlator, although this will result in a more complex structure of discriminators.

  20. An evaluation of motion mitigation techniques for pancreatic SBRT.

    PubMed

    Campbell, Warren G; Jones, Bernard L; Schefter, Tracey; Goodman, Karyn A; Miften, Moyed

    2017-07-01

    Ablative radiation therapy can be beneficial for pancreatic cancer, and motion mitigation helps to reduce dose to nearby organs-at-risk. Here, we compared two competing methods of motion mitigation-abdominal compression and respiratory gating. CBCT scans of 19 pancreatic cancer patients receiving stereotactic body radiation therapy were acquired with and without abdominal compression, and 3D target motion was reconstructed from CBCT projection images. Daily target motion without mitigation was compared against motion with compression and with simulated respiratory gating. Gating was free-breathing and based on an external surrogate. Target coverage was also evaluated for each scenario by simulating reduced target margins. Without mitigation, average daily target motion in LR/AP/SI directions was 5.3, 7.3, and 13.9mm, respectively. With abdominal compression, these values were 5.2, 5.3, and 8.5mm, and with respiratory gating they were 3.2, 3.9, and 5.5mm, respectively. Reductions with compression were significant in AP/SI directions, while reductions with gating were significant in all directions. Respiratory gating also demonstrated better coverage in the reduced margins scenario. Respiratory gating is the most effective strategy for reducing motion in pancreatic SBRT, and may allow for dose escalation through a reduction in target margin. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. A Methodology For Flood Vulnerability Analysis In Complex Flood Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Figueiredo, R.; Martina, M. L. V.; Dottori, F.

    2015-12-01

    Nowadays, flood risk management is gaining importance in order to mitigate and prevent flood disasters, and consequently the analysis of flood vulnerability is becoming a key research topic. In this paper, we propose a methodology for large-scale analysis of flood vulnerability. The methodology is based on a GIS-based index, which considers local topography, terrain roughness and basic information about the flood scenario to reproduce the diffusive behaviour of floodplain flow. The methodology synthetizes the spatial distribution of index values into maps and curves, used to represent the vulnerability in the area of interest. Its application allows for considering different levels of complexity of flood scenarios, from localized flood defence failures to complex hazard scenarios involving river reaches. The components of the methodology are applied and tested in two floodplain areas in Northern Italy recently affected by floods. The results show that the methodology can provide an original and valuable insight of flood vulnerability variables and processes.

  2. Surface Buildup Scenarios and Outpost Architectures for Lunar Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mazanek, Daniel D.; Troutman, Patrick A.; Culbert, Christopher J.; Leonard, Matthew J.; Spexarth, Gary R.

    2009-01-01

    The Constellation Program Architecture Team and the Lunar Surface Systems Project Office have developed an initial set of lunar surface buildup scenarios and associated polar outpost architectures, along with preliminary supporting element and system designs in support of NASA's Exploration Strategy. The surface scenarios are structured in such a way that outpost assembly can be suspended at any time to accommodate delivery contingencies or changes in mission emphasis. The modular nature of the architectures mitigates the impact of the loss of any one element and enhances the ability of international and commercial partners to contribute elements and systems. Additionally, the core lunar surface system technologies and outpost operations concepts are applicable to future Mars exploration. These buildup scenarios provide a point of departure for future trades and assessments of alternative architectures and surface elements.

  3. Global climate change and the mitigation challenge.

    PubMed

    Princiotta, Frank

    2009-10-01

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO2), have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations, very likely the primary cause of the 0.8 degrees C warming the Earth has experienced since the Industrial Revolution. With industrial activity and population expected to increase for the rest of the century, large increases in greenhouse gas emissions are projected, with substantial global additional warming predicted. This paper examines forces driving CO2 emissions, a concise sector-by-sector summary of mitigation options, and research and development (R&D) priorities. To constrain warming to below approximately 2.5 degrees C in 2100, the recent annual 3% CO2 emission growth rate needs to transform rapidly to an annual decrease rate of from 1 to 3% for decades. Furthermore, the current generation of energy generation and end-use technologies are capable of achieving less than half of the emission reduction needed for such a major mitigation program. New technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate, especially for the key power generation and transportation sectors. Current energy technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) programs fall far short of what is required.

  4. Global climate change and the mitigation challenge

    SciTech Connect

    Frank Princiotta

    2009-10-15

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations, very likely the primary cause of the 0.8{sup o}C warming the Earth has experienced since the Industrial Revolution. With industrial activity and population expected to increase for the rest of the century, large increases in greenhouse gas emissions are projected, with substantial global additional warming predicted. This paper examines forces driving CO{sub 2} emissions, a concise sector-by-sector summary of mitigation options, and research and development (R&D) priorities. To constrain warming to below approximately 2.5{sup o}C in 2100, the recent annual 3% CO{sub 2} emission growth rate needs to transform rapidly to an annual decrease rate of from 1 to 3% for decades. Furthermore, the current generation of energy generation and end-use technologies are capable of achieving less than half of the emission reduction needed for such a major mitigation program. New technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate, especially for the key power generation and transportation sectors. Current energy technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) programs fall far short of what is required. 20 refs., 18 figs., 4 tabs.

  5. Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change

    PubMed Central

    Woolf, Dominic; Amonette, James E.; Street-Perrott, F. Alayne; Lehmann, Johannes; Joseph, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    Production of biochar (the carbon (C)-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass) and its storage in soils have been suggested as a means of abating climate change by sequestering carbon, while simultaneously providing energy and increasing crop yields. Substantial uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity and sustainability of biochar at the global level. In this paper we estimate the maximum sustainable technical potential of biochar to mitigate climate change. Annual net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide could be reduced by a maximum of 1.8 Pg CO2-C equivalent (CO2-Ce) per year (12% of current anthropogenic CO2-Ce emissions; 1 Pg=1 Gt), and total net emissions over the course of a century by 130 Pg CO2-Ce, without endangering food security, habitat or soil conservation. Biochar has a larger climate-change mitigation potential than combustion of the same sustainably procured biomass for bioenergy, except when fertile soils are amended while coal is the fuel being offset. PMID:20975722

  6. Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

  7. LONG-TERM GLOBAL WATER USE PROJECTIONS USING SIX SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING FRAMEWORK

    SciTech Connect

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.; Moss, Richard H.; Kim, Son H.

    2014-01-19

    In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change – the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demands—both gross withdrawals and net consumptive use—are assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. We assess future water demands representing six socioeconomic scenarios, with no constraints imposed by future water supplies. The scenarios observe increases in global water withdrawals from 3,578 km3 year-1 in 2005 to 5,987 – 8,374 km3 year-1 in 2050, and to 4,719 – 12,290 km3 year-1 in 2095. Comparing the projected total regional water withdrawals to the historical supply of renewable freshwater, the Middle East exhibits the highest levels of water scarcity throughout the century, followed by India; water scarcity increases over time in both of these regions. In contrast, water scarcity improves in some regions with large base-year electric sector withdrawals, such as the USA and Canada, due to capital stock turnover and the almost complete phase-out of once-through flow cooling systems. The scenarios indicate that: 1) water is likely a limiting factor in climate change mitigation policies, 2) many regions can be expected to increase reliance on non-renewable groundwater, water reuse, and desalinated water, but they also

  8. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-10-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  9. Investigating the evolution of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways with a large number of scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schweizer, V. J.; Guivarch, C.; Rozenberg, J.

    2013-12-01

    The new scenario framework for climate change research includes alternative possible trends for socioeconomic development called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs bear some similarities to other scenarios used for global change research, but they also have important differences. Like the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios or the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, SSPs are defined by a scenario logic consisting of two axes. However, these axes define SSPs with respect to their location in an outcome space for challenges to mitigation and to adaptation rather than by their drivers. Open questions for the SSPs include what their drivers are and how the time dimension could be interpreted with the outcomes space. We present a new analytical approach for addressing both questions by studying large numbers of scenarios produced by an integrated assessment model, IMACLIM-R. We systematically generated 432 scenarios and used the SSP framework to classify them by typology. We then analyzed them dynamically, tracing their evolution through the SSP challenges space at annual time steps over the period 2010-2090. Through this approach, we found that many scenarios do not remain fixed to a particular SSP domain; they drift from one domain to another. In papers describing the framework for new scenarios, SSPs are envisioned as hypothetical (counter-factual) reference scenarios that remain fixed in one domain over some time period of interest. However, we conclude that it may be important to also research scenarios that shift across SSP domains. This is relevant for another open question, which is what scenarios are important to explore given their consequences. Through a data mining technique, we uncovered prominent drivers for scenarios that shift across SSP domains. Scenarios with different challenges for adaptation and mitigation (that is, mitigation and adaptation challenges that are not co-varying) were found to be the least stable, and the following

  10. Toward to Disaster Mitigation Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaneda, Yoshiyuki; Shiraki, Wataru; Tokozakura, Eiji

    2016-04-01

    Destructive natural disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis have occurred frequently in the world. For the reduction and mitigation of damages by destructive natural disasters, early detection of natural disasters and speedy and proper evacuations are indispensable. And hardware and software preparations for reduction and mitigation of natural disasters are quite important and significant. Finally, methods on restorations and revivals are necessary after natural disasters. We would like to propose natural disaster mitigation science for early detections, evacuations and restorations against destructive natural disasters. In natural disaster mitigation science, there are lots of research fields such as natural science, engineering, medical treatment, social science and literature/art etc. Especially, natural science, engineering and medical treatment are fundamental research fields for natural disaster mitigation, but social sciences such as sociology, psychology etc. are very important research fields for restorations after natural disasters. We have to progress the natural disaster mitigation science against destructive natural disaster mitigation. in the near future. We will present the details of natural disaster mitigation science.

  11. Climate adaptation as mitigation: the case of agricultural investments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobell, David B.; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Hertel, Thomas W.

    2013-03-01

    Successful adaptation of agriculture to ongoing climate changes would help to maintain productivity growth and thereby reduce pressure to bring new lands into agriculture. In this paper we investigate the potential co-benefits of adaptation in terms of the avoided emissions from land use change. A model of global agricultural trade and land use, called SIMPLE, is utilized to link adaptation investments, yield growth rates, land conversion rates, and land use emissions. A scenario of global adaptation to offset negative yield impacts of temperature and precipitation changes to 2050, which requires a cumulative 225 billion USD of additional investment, results in 61 Mha less conversion of cropland and 15 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) fewer emissions by 2050. Thus our estimates imply an annual mitigation co-benefit of 0.35 GtCO2e yr-1 while spending 15 per tonne CO2e of avoided emissions. Uncertainty analysis is used to estimate a 5-95% confidence interval around these numbers of 0.25-0.43 Gt and 11-22 per tonne CO2e. A scenario of adaptation focused only on Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, while less costly in aggregate, results in much smaller mitigation potentials and higher per tonne costs. These results indicate that although investing in the least developed areas may be most desirable for the main objectives of adaptation, it has little net effect on mitigation because production gains are offset by greater rates of land clearing in the benefited regions, which are relatively low yielding and land abundant. Adaptation investments in high yielding, land scarce regions such as Asia and North America are more effective for mitigation. To identify data needs, we conduct a sensitivity analysis using the Morris method (Morris 1991 Technometrics 33 161-74). The three most critical parameters for improving estimates of mitigation potential are (in descending order) the emissions factors for converting land to agriculture, the price elasticity of land supply

  12. Translation Readthrough Mitigation

    PubMed Central

    Arribere, Joshua A.; Cenik, Elif S.; Jain, Nimit; Hess, Gaelen T.; Lee, Cameron H.; Bassik, Michael C.; Fire, Andrew Z.

    2016-01-01

    A fraction of ribosomes engaged in translation will fail to terminate when reaching a stop codon, yielding nascent proteins inappropriately extended on their C-termini. Although such extended proteins can interfere with normal cellular processes, known mechanisms of translational surveillance are insufficient to protect cells from potential dominant consequences. Through a combination of transgenics and CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing in C. elegans, we demonstrate a consistent ability of cells to block accumulation of C-terminal extended proteins that result from failure to terminate at stop codons. 3’UTR-encoded sequences were sufficient to lower protein levels. Measurements of mRNA levels and translation suggested a co- or post-translational mechanism of action for these sequences in C. elegans. Similar mechanisms evidently operate in human cells, where we observed a comparable tendency for translated human 3’UTR sequences to reduce mature protein expression in tissue culture assays, including 3' sequences from the hypomorphic “Constant Spring” hemoglobin stop codon variant. We suggest 3’UTRs may encode peptide sequences that destabilize the attached protein, providing mitigation of unwelcome and varied translation errors. PMID:27281202

  13. Translation readthrough mitigation.

    PubMed

    Arribere, Joshua A; Cenik, Elif S; Jain, Nimit; Hess, Gaelen T; Lee, Cameron H; Bassik, Michael C; Fire, Andrew Z

    2016-06-30

    A fraction of ribosomes engaged in translation will fail to terminate when reaching a stop codon, yielding nascent proteins inappropriately extended on their C termini. Although such extended proteins can interfere with normal cellular processes, known mechanisms of translational surveillance are insufficient to protect cells from potential dominant consequences. Here, through a combination of transgenics and CRISPR–Cas9 gene editing in Caenorhabditis elegans, we demonstrate a consistent ability of cells to block accumulation of C-terminal-extended proteins that result from failure to terminate at stop codons. Sequences encoded by the 3′ untranslated region (UTR) were sufficient to lower protein levels. Measurements of mRNA levels and translation suggested a co- or post-translational mechanism of action for these sequences in C. elegans. Similar mechanisms evidently operate in human cells, in which we observed a comparable tendency for translated human 3′ UTR sequences to reduce mature protein expression in tissue culture assays, including 3′ UTR sequences from the hypomorphic ‘Constant Spring’ haemoglobin stop codon variant. We suggest that 3′ UTRs may encode peptide sequences that destabilize the attached protein, providing mitigation of unwelcome and varied translation errors.

  14. Mitigation analysis for Estonia

    SciTech Connect

    Martins, A.; Roos, J.; Pesur, A.

    1996-09-01

    The present report provides data on the mitigation analysis of Estonia. The results for energy, forest and agricultural sectors and macro-economic analysis are given. The Government of Estonia has identified the development of energy production as the main strategical means in the movement towards market economy. Now 99% of electricity generation and about 25% of heat production in Estonia is based on oil shale combustion. To increase the efficiency of oil shale-fired power plants and decrease CO{sub 2} emissions, the State Enterprise (SE) Eesti Energia (Estonian Energy) is planning to reconstruct these power plants and introduce the Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) combustion technology for oil shale burning to replace the Pulverized Combustion (PC). According to the Estonian Forest Policy, two general objectives are of importance: sustainability in forestry and efficiency in forest management. For the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions from agriculture, it is necessary to increase the efficiency of production resource usage. The growth of the GDP in 1995 was 2.9% as a result of large-scale privatization activities in Estonia and re-introduction of the available, but unused production capacities with the help of foreign and domestic investments. It is assumed that the medium growth rate of GDP reaches 6% in 1998.

  15. Consequence of climate mitigation on the risk of hunger.

    PubMed

    Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

    2015-06-16

    Climate change and mitigation measures have three major impacts on food consumption and the risk of hunger: (1) changes in crop yields caused by climate change; (2) competition for land between food crops and energy crops driven by the use of bioenergy; and (3) costs associated with mitigation measures taken to meet an emissions reduction target that keeps the global average temperature increase to 2 °C. In this study, we combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and we quantified the three impacts on risk of hunger through 2050 based on the uncertainty range associated with 12 climate models and one economic and demographic scenario. The strong mitigation measures aimed at attaining the 2 °C target reduce the negative effects of climate change on yields but have large negative impacts on the risk of hunger due to mitigation costs in the low-income countries. We also found that in a strongly carbon-constrained world, the change in food consumption resulting from mitigation measures depends more strongly on the change in incomes than the change in food prices.

  16. Scenario Planning and Collection Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Giesecke, Joan

    1999-01-01

    Discussion of the future of library collection development and the need for planning focuses on the technique of scenario planning and discusses the results of scenario planning at the University of NebraskaLincoln that examined collection development and digital information. (LRW)

  17. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rieley, James

    Scenario planning can help institutions change the mental models used in planning to achieve a focus on the long-term future, rather than on the immediate future. While institutional survival depends upon the ability to detect and adapt to critical changes in the environment, all institutions face a wide range of potential future scenarios. By…

  18. Student Rights and Responsibilities Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Ludwig A.; And Others

    To stimulate interest in student's rights and responsibilities, this resource contains incomplete scenarios dealing with the consequences of knowing and not knowing the law, as it is applied to modern practical situations. The scenarios can be used in high school courses such as government, social problems, history, psychology, and business law.…

  19. Student Rights and Responsibilities Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Ludwig A.; And Others

    To stimulate interest in student's rights and responsibilities, this resource contains incomplete scenarios dealing with the consequences of knowing and not knowing the law, as it is applied to modern practical situations. The scenarios can be used in high school courses such as government, social problems, history, psychology, and business law.…

  20. Futures Scenario in Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

    2010-01-01

    In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

  1. Usability standards meet scenario-based design: challenges and opportunities.

    PubMed

    Vincent, Christopher J; Blandford, Ann

    2015-02-01

    The focus of this paper is on the challenges and opportunities presented by developing scenarios of use for interactive medical devices. Scenarios are integral to the international standard for usability engineering of medical devices (IEC 62366:2007), and are also applied to the development of health software (draft standard IEC 82304-1). The 62366 standard lays out a process for mitigating risk during normal use (i.e. use as per the instructions, or accepted medical practice). However, this begs the question of whether "real use" (that which occurs in practice) matches "normal use". In this paper, we present an overview of the product lifecycle and how it impacts on the type of scenario that can be practically applied. We report on the development and testing of a set of scenarios intended to inform the design of infusion pumps based on "real use". The scenarios were validated by researchers and practitioners experienced in clinical practice, and their utility was assessed by developers and practitioners representing different stages of the product lifecycle. These evaluations highlighted previously unreported challenges and opportunities for the use of scenarios in this context. Challenges include: integrating scenario-based design with usability engineering practice; covering the breadth of uses of infusion devices; and managing contradictory evidence. Opportunities included scenario use beyond design to guide marketing, to inform purchasing and as resources for training staff. This study exemplifies one empirically grounded approach to communicating and negotiating the realities of practice. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. What roles for viruses in origin of life scenarios?

    PubMed

    Kostyrka, Gladys

    2016-10-01

    Important roles in origin of life (OL) scenarios have been and still are attributed to viruses. Yet the strict dependence of viruses on cells for their multiplication has been widely acknowledged since the first decades of the 20th century. How could viruses play critical roles in the OL if life relies on cellular organization and if viruses are defined as parasites of cells? In other words, how could viruses play a role in the emergence of cellular life if the existence of cells is a prerequisite for the existence of viruses? This paper investigates this issue and describes past and current OL scenarios conferring viruses with important roles, thereby completing the work of historian of science and physician Scott Podolsky who identified three major roles of viruses in past OL scenarios. Some objections raised by present OL scenarios conferring viruses with an important role are discussed. I argue that disagreements concerning the roles of viruses in OL scenarios stem from the different concepts of life and of virus scientists defend. Investigating the roles of viruses in OL scenarios not only helps identifying different ways to define life in the context of OL theorizing. It also offers the opportunity to better understand how viruses could be conceptualized. The relevance of the replication-first versus metabolism-first dichotomy in OL theorizing is briefly discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Albeni Falls Wildlife Mitigation Project : Annual Report of Mitigation Activities.

    SciTech Connect

    Entz, Ray D.

    2001-04-01

    The Albeni Falls Interagency Work Group was actively involved in implementing wildlife mitigation activities in 2000. The Work Group met each quarter to discuss management and budget issues affecting Albeni Falls wildlife mitigation. Members of the Work Group protected a total of 1,242 acres of wetland habitat in 2000. The total amount of wildlife habitat protected for Albeni Falls mitigation is approximately 4,190 acres (4,630 Habitat Units). Approximately 16% of the total wildlife habitat lost has been mitigated. Land management activities were limited in 2000 as protection opportunities took up most staff time. Administrative activities increased in 2000 as funding was more evenly distributed among Work Group members. As a result, implementation is expected to continue to increase in the coming year. Land management and monitoring and evaluation activities will increase in 2001 as site-specific management plans are completed and implemented.

  4. Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bopp, L.; Resplandy, L.; Orr, J. C.; Doney, S. C.; Dunne, J. P.; Gehlen, M.; Halloran, P.; Heinze, C.; Ilyina, T.; Séférian, R.; Tjiputra, J.; Vichi, M.

    2013-10-01

    Ocean ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes of their physical, chemical and biological environment. Among these changes, warming, acidification, deoxygenation and changes in primary productivity by marine phytoplankton can be considered as four of the major stressors of open ocean ecosystems. Due to rising atmospheric CO2 in the coming decades, these changes will be amplified. Here, we use the most recent simulations performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 to assess how these stressors may evolve over the course of the 21st century. The 10 Earth system models used here project similar trends in ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced primary productivity for each of the IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCPs) over the 21st century. For the "business-as-usual" scenario RCP8.5, the model-mean changes in the 2090s (compared to the 1990s) for sea surface temperature, sea surface pH, global O2 content and integrated primary productivity amount to +2.73 (±0.72) °C, -0.33 (±0.003) pH unit, -3.45 (±0.44)% and -8.6 (±7.9)%, respectively. For the high mitigation scenario RCP2.6, corresponding changes are +0.71 (±0.45) °C, -0.07 (±0.001) pH unit, -1.81 (±0.31)% and -2.0 (±4.1)%, respectively, illustrating the effectiveness of extreme mitigation strategies. Although these stressors operate globally, they display distinct regional patterns and thus do not change coincidentally. Large decreases in O2 and in pH are simulated in global ocean intermediate and mode waters, whereas large reductions in primary production are simulated in the tropics and in the North Atlantic. Although temperature and pH projections are robust across models, the same does not hold for projections of subsurface O2 concentrations in the tropics and global and regional changes in net primary productivity. These high uncertainties in projections of primary productivity and subsurface oxygen prompt us to

  5. Lunar Dust Mitigation Screens

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knutson, Shawn; Holloway, Nancy

    With plans for the United States to return to the moon, and establish a sustainable human presence on the lunar surface many issues must be successfully overcome. Lunar dust is one of a number of issues with the potential to create a myriad of problems if not adequately addressed. Samples of dust brought back from Apollo missions show it to be soft, yet sharp and abrasive. The dust consists of a variety of morphologies including spherical, angular blocks, shards, and a number of irregular shapes. One of the main issues with lunar dust is its attraction to stick to anything it comes in contact with (i.e. astronauts, equipment, habitats, etc.). Ionized radiation from the sun strikes the moon's surface and creates an electrostatic charge on the dust. Further, the dust harbors van der Waals forces making it especially difficult to separate once it sticks to a surface. During the Apollo missions, it was discovered that trying to brush the lunar dust from spacesuits was not effective, and rubbing it caused degradation of the suit material. Further, when entering the lunar module after moonwalks, the astronauts noted that the dust was so prolific inside the cabin that they inhaled and ingested it, causing at least one of them, Harrison "Jack" Schmidt, to report irritation of the throat and lungs. It is speculated that the dust could also harm an astronaut's nervous and cardiovascular systems, especially during an extended stay. In addition to health issues, the dust can also cause problems by scouring reflective coatings off of thermal blankets, and roughening surfaces of windows and optics. Further, panels on solar cells and photovoltaics can also be compromised due to dust sticking on the surfaces. Lunar dust has the capacity to penetrate seals, interfere with connectors, as well as mechanisms on digging machines, all of which can lead to problems and failure. To address lunar dust issues, development of electrostatic screens to mitigate dust on sur-faces is currently

  6. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

  7. Scenarios of global mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rafaj, P.; Bertok, I.; Cofala, J.; Schöpp, W.

    2013-11-01

    This paper discusses the impact of air quality and climate policies on global mercury emissions in the time horizon up to 2050. Evolution of mercury emissions is based on projections of energy consumption for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2 °C climate policy scenario, which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. The assessment takes into account current air quality legislation in each country, as well as provides estimates of maximum feasible reductions in mercury through 2050. Results indicate significant scope for co-benefits of climate policies for mercury emissions. Atmospheric releases of mercury from anthropogenic sources under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 45% when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of world-wide co-benefits for mercury emissions by 2050 occur in China. An annual Hg-abatement of about 800 tons is estimated for the coal combustion in power sector if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel.

  8. Modeling the potential persistence of various ecological systems under CMIP5 future climate and land use scenarios throughout California, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, B.; Ferschweiler, K.; Bachelet, D. M.; Sleeter, B. M.

    2016-12-01

    California's geographic location, topographic complexity and latitudinal climatic gradient give rise to great biological and ecological diversity. However, increased land use pressure, altered seasonal weather patterns, and changes in temperature and precipitation regimes are having pronounced effects on ecosystems and the multitude of services they provide for an increasing population. As a result, natural resource managers are faced with formidable challenges to maintain these critical services. The goals of this project were to better understand how projected 21st century climate and land-use change scenarios may alter ecosystem dynamics, the spatial distribution of various vegetation types and land-use patterns, and to provide a coarse scale "triage map" of where land managers may want to concentrate efforts to reduce ecological stress in order to mitigate the potential impacts of a changing climate. We used the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model and the LUCAS state-and-transition simulation model to simulate the potential effects of future climate and land-use change on ecological processes for the state of California. Historical climate data were obtained from the PRISM dataset and nine CMIP5 climate models were run for the RCP 8.5 scenario. Climate projections were combined with a business-as-usual land-use scenario based on local-scale land use histories. For ease of discussion, results from five simulation runs (historic, hot-dry, hot-wet, warm-dry, and warm-wet) are presented. Results showed large changes in the extent of urban and agricultural lands. In addition, several simulated potential vegetation types persisted in situ under all four future scenarios, although alterations in total area, total ecosystem carbon, and forest vigor (NPP/LAI) were noted. As might be expected, the majority of the forested types that persisted occurred on public lands. However, more than 78% of the simulated subtropical mixed forest and 26% of temperate evergreen

  9. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 mg m3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol

  10. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed

  11. 21st Century Scholars

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, Terrence

    2009-01-01

    Bethpage Union Free School District in New York is a high-performing district by almost any current accountability measure. Yet administrators and teachers worried that they were not doing enough to prepare their students as critical thinkers for the 21st century. Inspired by the curriculum framework of the Partnership for 21st Century Skills, the…

  12. 21st Century Scholars

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, Terrence

    2009-01-01

    Bethpage Union Free School District in New York is a high-performing district by almost any current accountability measure. Yet administrators and teachers worried that they were not doing enough to prepare their students as critical thinkers for the 21st century. Inspired by the curriculum framework of the Partnership for 21st Century Skills, the…

  13. Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for crop management system scenarios

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ is a high-end computer interface that simulates daily fertilizer application information for any gridded domain. It integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting model and CMAQ.

  14. Stream Mitigation Protocol Compendium - 2004

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document is intended as a reference in order to select, adapt, or devise stream assessment methods appropriate for impact assessment and mitigation of fluvial resources in the CWA Section 404 Program.

  15. National Wetlands Mitigation Action Plan

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    On December 26, 2002, EPA and the Corps of Engineers announced the release of a comprehensive, interagency National Wetlands Mitigation Action Plan to further achievement of the goal of no net loss of wetlands.

  16. Robust dynamic mitigation of instabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Kawata, S.; Karino, T.

    2015-04-15

    A dynamic mitigation mechanism for instability growth was proposed and discussed in the paper [S. Kawata, Phys. Plasmas 19, 024503 (2012)]. In the present paper, the robustness of the dynamic instability mitigation mechanism is discussed further. The results presented here show that the mechanism of the dynamic instability mitigation is rather robust against changes in the phase, the amplitude, and the wavelength of the wobbling perturbation applied. Generally, instability would emerge from the perturbation of the physical quantity. Normally, the perturbation phase is unknown so that the instability growth rate is discussed. However, if the perturbation phase is known, the instability growth can be controlled by a superposition of perturbations imposed actively: If the perturbation is induced by, for example, a driving beam axis oscillation or wobbling, the perturbation phase could be controlled, and the instability growth is mitigated by the superposition of the growing perturbations.

  17. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

    PubMed Central

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for. PMID:27067389

  18. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  19. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

    PubMed

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-04-12

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  20. Global warming mitigation by sulphur loading in the stratosphere: dependence of required emissions on allowable residual warming rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eliseev, Alexey V.; Chernokulsky, Alexandr V.; Karpenko, Andrey A.; Mokhov, Igor I.

    2010-07-01

    An approach to mitigate global warming via sulphur loading in the stratosphere (geoengineering) is studied, employing a large ensemble of numerical experiments with the climate model of intermediate complexity IAP RAS CM. The model is forced by the historical+SRES A1B anthropogenic greenhouse gases+tropospheric sulphates scenario for 1860-2100 with additional sulphur emissions in the stratosphere in the twenty-first century. Different ensemble members are constructed by varying values of the parameters governing mass, horizontal distribution and radiative forcing of the stratospheric sulphates. It is obtained that, given a global loading of the sulphates in the stratosphere, among those studied in this paper latitudinal distributions of geoengineering aerosols, the most efficient one at the global basis is that peaked between 50° N and 70° N and with a somewhat smaller burden in the tropics. Uniform latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates is a little less efficient. Sulphur emissions in the stratosphere required to stop the global temperature at the level corresponding to the mean value for 2000-2010 amount to more than 10 TgS/year in the year 2100. These emissions may be reduced if some warming is allowed to occur in the twenty-first century. For instance, if the global temperature trend S g in every decade of this century is limited not to exceed 0.10 K/decade (0.15 K/decade), geoengineering emissions of 4-14 TgS/year (2-7 TgS/year) would be sufficient. Even if the global warming is stopped, temperature changes in different regions still occur with a magnitude up to 1 K. Their horizontal pattern depends on implied latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates. In addition, for the stabilised global mean surface air temperature, global precipitation decreases by about 10%. If geoengineering emissions are stopped after several decades of implementation, their climatic effect is removed within a few decades. In this period, surface air

  1. Mitigating amphibian chytridiomycosis in nature

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Garner, Trenton W. J.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Martel, An; Pasmans, Frank; Muths, Erin L.; Cunningham, Andrew A.; Weldon, Che; Fisher, Matthew C.; Bosch, Jaime

    2016-01-01

    Amphibians across the planet face the threat of population decline and extirpation caused by the disease chytridiomycosis. Despite consensus that the fungal pathogens responsible for the disease are conservation issues, strategies to mitigate their impacts in the natural world are, at best, nascent. Reducing risk associated with the movement of amphibians, non-amphibian vectors and other sources of infection remains the first line of defence and a primary objective when mitigating the threat of disease in wildlife. Amphibian-associated chytridiomycete fungi and chytridiomycosis are already widespread, though, and we therefore focus on discussing options for mitigating the threats once disease emergence has occurred in wild amphibian populations. All strategies have shortcomings that need to be overcome before implementation, including stronger efforts towards understanding and addressing ethical and legal considerations. Even if these issues can be dealt with, all currently available approaches, or those under discussion, are unlikely to yield the desired conservation outcome of disease mitigation. The decision process for establishing mitigation strategies requires integrated thinking that assesses disease mitigation options critically and embeds them within more comprehensive strategies for the conservation of amphibian populations, communities and ecosystems.

  2. Mitigating amphibian chytridiomycoses in nature.

    PubMed

    Garner, Trenton W J; Schmidt, Benedikt R; Martel, An; Pasmans, Frank; Muths, Erin; Cunningham, Andrew A; Weldon, Che; Fisher, Matthew C; Bosch, Jaime

    2016-12-05

    Amphibians across the planet face the threat of population decline and extirpation caused by the disease chytridiomycosis. Despite consensus that the fungal pathogens responsible for the disease are conservation issues, strategies to mitigate their impacts in the natural world are, at best, nascent. Reducing risk associated with the movement of amphibians, non-amphibian vectors and other sources of infection remains the first line of defence and a primary objective when mitigating the threat of disease in wildlife. Amphibian-associated chytridiomycete fungi and chytridiomycosis are already widespread, though, and we therefore focus on discussing options for mitigating the threats once disease emergence has occurred in wild amphibian populations. All strategies have shortcomings that need to be overcome before implementation, including stronger efforts towards understanding and addressing ethical and legal considerations. Even if these issues can be dealt with, all currently available approaches, or those under discussion, are unlikely to yield the desired conservation outcome of disease mitigation. The decision process for establishing mitigation strategies requires integrated thinking that assesses disease mitigation options critically and embeds them within more comprehensive strategies for the conservation of amphibian populations, communities and ecosystems.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  3. Megacity ozone air quality under four alternative future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, T. M.; Stock, Z. S.; Russo, M. R.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2012-05-01

    The impact of the megacities of the world on global tropospheric ozone, and conversely, the extent to which megacities are influenced by emissions of ozone precursors from outside of the megacities is examined under the four alternative RCP ("Representative Concentration Pathway") emissions scenarios. Despite accounting for about 6% of present-day anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursor species, the contribution of emissions from megacities to global tropospheric ozone is calculated to be 0.84%. By 2100 this contribution falls to between 0.18% and 0.62% depending on the scenario, with the lower value being for the most-polluting of the four future emissions scenarios due to stringent controls on ozone precursor emissions from highly populated areas combined with a stronger tropospheric background ozone field. The higher end of this range is from the least-polluting of the four emissions scenarios, due to lower background tropospheric ozone combined with the use of a simpler downscaling methodology in the construction of the scenario, which results in higher emissions from megacities. Although the absolute impact of megacities on global ozone is small, an important result of this study is that under all future scenarios, future air quality in megacities is expected to be less influenced by local emissions within the cities, but instead more influenced by emission sources outside of the cities, with mixing ratios of background ozone projected to play an increasing role in megacity air quality throughout the 21st century. Assumptions made when downscaling the emissions scenarios onto the grids used in such modelling studies can have a large influence on these results; future generations of emissions scenarios should include spatially explicit representations or urban development suitable for air quality studies using global chemical transport models.

  4. The effect of climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Yuyu; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.

    2013-08-01

    A changing climate will affect the energy system in a number of ways, one of which is through changes in demands for heating and cooling in buildings. Understanding the potential effect of climate on heating and cooling demands must take into account not only the manner in which the building sector might evolve over time - including, for example, movements from rural to urban environments in developing countries - but also important uncertainty about the nature of climate change itself and the growth and movements of populations over time. In this study, we explored the uncertainty in climate change impacts on heating and cooling by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days for both a reference (no-policy) scenario and a climate mitigation scenario built from 0.5 degree latitude by 0.5 degree longitude resolution output from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three gridded scenarios of population distribution. The implications that changing climate and population distribution might have for building energy consumption in the U.S. and China were then explored by using the heating and cooling degree days results as inputs to a detailed, building energy model, nested in the long-term global integrated assessment framework, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Across the climate models and population distribution scenarios, the results indicate that unabated climate change would cause total final energy consumption to decrease modestly in both U.S. and China buildings by the end of the century, as decreased heating consumption is more than balanced by increased cooling using primarily electricity. However, the results also indicate that when indirect emissions from the power sector are also taken into account, climate change may have negligible effect on building sector CO2 emissions in the two countries. The variation in results due to variation of population distribution is noticeably smaller than variation due to the use of different

  5. Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

    1992-01-01

    A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

  6. The Impact of Future Carbon Mitigation Policies and Climate on Regional Air Qaulity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turnock, Steven; O'Connor, Fiona; Smith, Steven

    2017-04-01

    Air pollutants (ozone and particulate matter) can affect both climate and air quality. Future reductions in the anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and their precursors will improve air quality. However, it is uncertain the extent to which the choice of carbon mitigation policies could influence future regional air quality via changes to the co-emission of air pollutants from carbon sources. In addition, it is still uncertain how future changes in climate could influence air pollutants and future air quality may change through climate mitigation itself. Two consistent future scenarios, developed by the same integrated assessment model, are used within this study: one is a reference scenario of future economic development and population growth, whilst the other (RCP4.5) assumes the same development but applies mitigation measures to reduce carbon dioxide concentrations and stabilise anthropogenic radiative forcing at 4.5 W m-2. Here we have applied these two emission scenarios to a coupled composition-climate model (HadGEM3-UKCA) to ascertain the impact of such carbon mitigation measures on future air quality, both globally and over specific regions, such as Europe and Asia. A comparison of the emission scenarios shows that the implementation of carbon mitigation measures reduces global air pollutant emissions by between 15-30% and by larger amounts over other regions. Additional simulations have also been undertaken to attribute the future air quality changes to either reductions in emissions or changes in climate. An evaluation of the model using air quality observations has also been undertaken for the year 2000. This study demonstrates that carbon mitigation policies to mitigate climate change have added co-benefits for global and regional air quality.

  7. Modeling the greenhouse gas budget of straw returning in China: feasibility of mitigation and countermeasures.

    PubMed

    Lu, Fei; Wang, Xiao-Ke; Han, Bing; Ouyang, Zhi-Yun; Zheng, Hua

    2010-05-01

    Straw returning is considered to be one of the most promising carbon sequestration measures in China's cropland. A compound model, namely "Straw Returning and Burning Model-Expansion" (SRBME), was built to estimate the net mitigation potential, economic benefits, and air pollutant reduction of straw returning. Three scenarios, that is, baseline, "full popularization of straw returning (FP)," and "full popularization of straw returning and precision fertilization (FP + P)," were set to reflect popularization of straw returning. The results of the SRBME indicated that (1) compared with the soil carbon sequestration of 13.37 Tg/yr, the net mitigation potentials, which were 6.328 Tg/yr for the FP scenario and 9.179 Tg/yr for the FP + P scenario, had different trends when the full budget of the greenhouse gases was considered; (2) when the feasibility in connection with greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, economic benefits, and environmental benefits was taken into consideration, straw returning was feasible in 15 provinces in the FP scenario, with a total net mitigation potential of 7.192 TgCe/yr and the total benefits of CNY 1.473 billion (USD 216.6 million); (3) in the FP + P scenario, with the implementation of precision fertilization, straw returning was feasible in 26 provinces with a total net mitigation potential of 10.39 TgCe/yr and the total benefits of CNY 5.466 billion (USD 803.8 million); (4) any extent of change in the treatment of straw from being burnt to being returned would contribute to air pollution reduction; (5) some countermeasures, such as CH(4) reduction in rice paddies, precision fertilization, financial support, education and propaganda, would promote the feasibility of straw returning as a mitigation measure.

  8. Scenario forecasting changes in the water balance components of the Olenek and Iindigirka river basins due to possible climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gusev, Ye. M.; Nasonova, O. N.; Dzhogan, L. Ya.; Kovalev, E. E.

    2015-06-01

    Scenario projections of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics for the basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers (the Republic of Sakha) in the XXI century have been obtained for four IPCC global climate change scenarios of SRES family which correspond to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of human civilization. The projections have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the basins under consideration up to the year of 2063. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model for heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN.

  9. Complex Spatiotemporal Responses of Global Terrestrial Primary Production to Climate Change and Increasing Atmospheric CO2 in the 21st Century

    PubMed Central

    Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin; Dangal, Shree R. S.; Zhang, Chi; Yang, Jia; Tao, Bo; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Wang, Xiaoke; Lu, Chaoqun; Ren, Wei; Banger, Kamaljit; Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Bowen; Li, Xia

    2014-01-01

    Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM), we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s) global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO2 changes in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8–56.4) PgC yr−1 as a result of multiple factors during 2000–2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6%) under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2%) under the B1 scenario during 2010–2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5°C (until the 2030s) and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5°C (after the 2030s). This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2°C may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5°C. The CO2 fertilization effect would result in a 12%–13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21st century. The relative CO2 fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO2 (ppm) bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO2 saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1), the high emission scenario (A2) would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and

  10. Complex spatiotemporal responses of global terrestrial primary production to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 in the 21st century.

    PubMed

    Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin; Dangal, Shree R S; Zhang, Chi; Yang, Jia; Tao, Bo; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Wang, Xiaoke; Lu, Chaoqun; Ren, Wei; Banger, Kamaljit; Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Bowen; Li, Xia

    2014-01-01

    Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM), we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s) global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO2 changes in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8-56.4) PgC yr(-1) as a result of multiple factors during 2000-2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6%) under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2%) under the B1 scenario during 2010-2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5 °C (until the 2030s) and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5 °C (after the 2030s). This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2 °C may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5 °C. The CO2 fertilization effect would result in a 12%-13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21st century. The relative CO2 fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO2 (ppm) bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO2 saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1), the high emission scenario (A2) would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and increasing

  11. Cost of preventing workplace heat-related illness through worker breaks and the benefit of climate-change mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takakura, Jun'ya; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Honda, Yasushi; Masui, Toshihiko

    2017-06-01

    The exposure of workers to hot environments is expected to increase as a result of climate change. In order to prevent heat-related illness, it is recommended that workers take breaks during working hours. However, this would lead to reductions in worktime and labor productivity. In this study, we estimate the economic cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks associated with climate change under a wide range of climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We calculate the worktime reduction based on the recommendation of work/rest ratio and the estimated future wet bulb glove temperature, which is an index of heat stresses. Corresponding GDP losses (cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks) are estimated using a computable general equilibrium model throughout this century. Under the highest emission scenario, GDP losses in 2100 will range from 2.6 to 4.0% compared to the current climate conditions. On the other hand, GDP losses will be less than 0.5% if the 2.0 °C goal is achieved. The benefit of climate-change mitigation for avoiding worktime loss is comparable to the cost of mitigation (cost of the greenhouse gas emission reduction) under the 2.0 °C goal. The relationship between the cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks and global average temperature rise is approximately linear, and the difference in economic loss between the 1.5 °C goal and the 2.0 °C goal is expected to be approximately 0.3% of global GDP in 2100. Although climate mitigation and socioeconomic development can limit the vulnerable regions and sectors, particularly in developing countries, outdoor work is still expected to be affected. The effectiveness of some adaptation measures such as additional installation of air conditioning devices or shifting the time of day for working are also suggested. In order to reduce the economic impacts, adaptation measures should also be implemented as well as pursing ambitious climate change

  12. Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2015-03-01

    It is widely expected that global emissions of atmospheric aerosols and their precursors will decrease strongly throughout the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted to protect human health. For instance, global emissions of aerosols and their precursors are projected to decrease by as much as 80% by the year 2100, according to the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The removal of aerosols will cause unintended climate consequences, including an unmasking of global warming from long-lived greenhouse gases. We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 3 (GFDL CM3) to simulate future climate over the 21st century with and without the aerosol emission changes projected by each of the RCPs in order to isolate the radiative forcing and climate response resulting from the aerosol reductions. We find that the projected global radiative forcing and climate response due to aerosol decreases do not vary significantly across the four RCPs by 2100, although there is some mid-century variation, especially in cloud droplet effective radius, that closely follows the RCP emissions and energy consumption projections. Up to 1 W m-2 of radiative forcing may be unmasked globally from 2005 to 2100 due to reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, leading to average global temperature increases up to 1 K and global precipitation rate increases up to 0.09 mm d-1. Regionally and locally, climate impacts can be much larger, with a 2.1 K warming projected over China, Japan, and Korea due to the reduced aerosol emissions in RCP8.5, as well as nearly a 0.2 mm d-1 precipitation increase, a 7 g m-2 LWP decrease, and a 2 μm increase in cloud droplet effective radius. Future aerosol decreases could be responsible for 30-40% of total climate warming by 2100 in East Asia, even under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The expected unmasking of global warming caused by aerosol reductions will

  13. Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Golaz, J.-C.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2015-11-01

    It is widely expected that global emissions of atmospheric aerosols and their precursors will decrease strongly throughout the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted to protect human health. For instance, global emissions of aerosols and their precursors are projected to decrease by as much as 80 % by the year 2100, according to the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The removal of aerosols will cause unintended climate consequences, including an unmasking of global warming from long-lived greenhouse gases. We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Climate Model version 3 (GFDL CM3) to simulate future climate over the 21st century with and without the aerosol emission changes projected by each of the RCPs in order to isolate the radiative forcing and climate response resulting from the aerosol reductions. We find that the projected global radiative forcing and climate response due to aerosol decreases do not vary significantly across the four RCPs by 2100, although there is some mid-century variation, especially in cloud droplet effective radius, that closely follows the RCP emissions and energy consumption projections. Up to 1 W m-2 of radiative forcing may be unmasked globally from 2005 to 2100 due to reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, leading to average global temperature increases up to 1 K and global precipitation rate increases up to 0.09 mm day-1. However, when using a version of CM3 with reduced present-day aerosol radiative forcing (-1.0 W m-2), the global temperature increase for RCP8.5 is about 0.5 K, with similar magnitude decreases in other climate response parameters as well. Regionally and locally, climate impacts can be much larger than the global mean, with a 2.1 K warming projected over China, Japan, and Korea due to the reduced aerosol emissions in RCP8.5, as well as nearly a 0.2 mm day-1 precipitation increase, a 7 g m-2 LWP decrease, and a 2 μm increase in

  14. The HayWired earthquake scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  15. Mitigating Climate Change Through Green Buildings and Smart Growth

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, Marilyn A; Southworth, Frank

    2008-01-01

    Energy-efficient buildings are seen by climate change experts as one of the least-cost approaches to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. This paper summarizes a study done for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change that takes a broader look at the potential role of a climate-friendly built environment including not only considerations of how buildings are constructed and used, but also how they interface with the electric grid and where they are located in terms of urban densities and access to employment and services. In addition to summarizing mechanisms of change (barriers and drivers), the paper reviews a set of policies that could bring carbon emissions in the building sector in 2025 back almost to 2004 levels. By mid-century, the combination of green buildings and smart growth could deliver the deeper reductions that many believe are needed to mitigate climate change.

  16. Earth system commitments due to delayed mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pfister, Patrik L.; Stocker, Thomas F.

    2016-01-01

    As long as global CO2 emissions continue to increase annually, long-term committed Earth system changes grow much faster than current observations. A novel metric linking this future growth to policy decisions today is the mitigation delay sensitivity (MDS), but MDS estimates for Earth system variables other than peak temperature (ΔT max) are missing. Using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, we show that the current emission increase rate causes a ΔT max increase roughly 3-7.5 times as fast as observed warming, and a millenial steric sea level rise (SSLR) 7-25 times as fast as observed SSLR, depending on the achievable rate of emission reductions after the peak of emissions. These ranges are only slightly affected by the uncertainty range in equilibrium climate sensitivity, which is included in the above values. The extent of ocean acidification at the end of the century is also strongly dependent on the starting time and rate of emission reductions. The preservable surface ocean area with sufficient aragonite supersaturation for coral reef growth is diminished globally at an MDS of roughly 25%-80% per decade. A near-complete loss of this area becomes unavoidable if mitigation is delayed for a few years to decades. Also with respect to aragonite, 12%-18% of the Southern Ocean surface become undersaturated per decade, if emission reductions are delayed beyond 2015-2040. We conclude that the consequences of delaying global emission reductions are much better captured if the MDS of relevant Earth system variables is communicated in addition to current trends and total projected future changes.

  17. An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

  18. An exploration of scenarios to support sustainable land management using integrated environmental socio-economic models.

    PubMed

    Fleskens, L; Nainggolan, D; Stringer, L C

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

  19. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

  20. Unconventional Nuclear Warfare Defense (UNWD) containment and mitigation subtask.

    SciTech Connect

    Wente, William Baker

    2005-06-01

    The objective of this subtask of the Unconventional Nuclear Warfare Design project was to demonstrate mitigation technologies for radiological material dispersal and to assist planners with incorporation of the technologies into a concept of operations. The High Consequence Assessment and Technology department at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has studied aqueous foam's ability to mitigate the effects of an explosively disseminated radiological dispersal device (RDD). These benefits include particle capture of respirable radiological particles, attenuation of blast overpressure, and reduction of plume buoyancy. To better convey the aqueous foam attributes, SNL conducted a study using the Explosive Release Atmospheric Dispersion model, comparing the effects of a mitigated and unmitigated explosive RDD release. Results from this study compared health effects and land contamination between the two scenarios in terms of distances of effect, population exposure, and remediation costs. Incorporating aqueous foam technology, SNL created a conceptual design for a stationary containment area to be located at a facility entrance with equipment that could minimize the effects from the detonation of a vehicle transported RDD. The containment design was evaluated against several criteria, including mitigation ability (both respirable and large fragment particle capture as well as blast overpressure suppression), speed of implementation, cost, simplicity, and required space. A mock-up of the conceptual idea was constructed at SNL's 9920 explosive test site to demonstrate the containment design.

  1. The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: results from the EMF 27 scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Luderer, Gunnar; Krey, Volker; Calvin, Katherine V.; Merrick, James; Mima, Silvana; Pietzcker, Robert; Van Vliet, Jasper; Wada, Kenichi

    2013-10-15

    This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy (RE) in climate change mitigation. Currently RE supplies almost 20 % of global electricity demand. Almost all EMF27 mitigation scenarios show a strong increase in renewable power production, with a substantial ramp-up of wind and solar power deployment. In many scenarios, renewables are the most important long-term mitigation option for power supply. Wind energy is competitive even without climate policy, whereas the prospects of solar photovoltaics (PV) are highly contingent on the ambitiousness of climate policy. Bioenergy is an important and versatile energy carrier; however—with the exception of low temperature heat—there is less scope for renewables other than biomass for non-electric energy supply. Despite the important role of wind and solar power in climate change mitigation scenarios with full technology availability, limiting their deployment has a relatively small effect on mitigation costs, if nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS)—which can serve as substitutes in low-carbon power supply—are available. Limited bioenergy availability in combination with limited wind and solar power by contrast, results in a more substantial increase in mitigation costs. While a number of robust insights emerge, the results on renewable energy deployment levels vary considerably across the models. An in-depth analysis of a subset of EMF27 reveals substantial differences in modeling approaches and parameter assumptions. To a certain degree, differences in model results can be attributed to different assumptions about technology costs, resource potentials and systems integration.

  2. Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Woolf, Dominic; Amonette, James E.; Street-Perrott, F. A.; Lehmann, Johannes C.; Joseph, Stephen

    2010-08-10

    Production of biochar (the carbon-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass), in combination with its storage in soils, has been suggested as a means to abate anthropogenic climate change, while simultaneously increasing crop yields. The climate mitigation potential stems primarily from the highly recalcitrant nature of biochar, which slows the rate at which photosynthetically fixed carbon is returned to the atmosphere. Significant uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity, and sustainability of biochar for carbon capture and storage when scaled to the global level. Previous estimates, based on simple assumptions, vary widely. Here we show that, subject to strict environmental and modest economic constraints on biomass procurement and biochar production methods, annual net emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O could be reduced by 1.1 - 1.9 Pg CO2-C equivalent (CO2-Ce)/yr (7 - 13% of current anthropogenic CO2-Ce emissions; 1Pg = 1 Gt). Over one century, cumulative net emissions of these gases could be reduced by 72-140 Pg CO2-Ce. The lower end of this range uses currently untapped residues and wastes; the upper end requires substantial alteration to global biomass management, but would not endanger food security, habitat or soil conservation. Half the avoided emissions are due to the net C sequestered as biochar, one-quarter to replacement of fossil-fuel energy by pyrolysis energy, and one-quarter to avoided emissions of CH4 and N2O. The total mitigation potential is 18-30% greater than if the same biomass were combusted to produce energy. Despite limited data for the decomposition rate of biochar in soils and the effects of biochar additions on soil greenhouse-gas fluxes, sensitivity within realistic ranges of these parameters is small, resulting in an uncertainty of ±8% (±1 s.d.) in our estimates. Achieving these mitigation results requires, however, that biochar production be performed using only low-emissions technologies and feedstocks obtained

  3. Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

    2008-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

  4. Mitigation technologies for hydrogen storage systems based on reactive solids.

    SciTech Connect

    Kanouff, Michael P.; Dedrick, Daniel E.; Khalil, Y. F.; Pratt, Joseph William; Reeder, Craig; Cordaro, Joseph Gabriel

    2010-11-01

    This paper describes mitigation technologies that are intended to enable the deployment of advanced hydrogen storage technologies for early market and automotive fuel cell applications. Solid State hydrogen storage materials provide an opportunity for a dramatic increase in gravimetric and volumetric energy storage density. Systems and technologies based on the advanced materials have been developed and demonstrated within the laboratory [1,2], and in some cases, integrated with fuel cell systems. The R&D community will continue to develop these technologies for an ever increasing market of fuel cell technologies, including, forklift, light-cart, APU, and automotive systems. Solid state hydrogen storage materials are designed and developed to readily release, and in some cases, react with diatomic hydrogen. This favorable behavior is often accomplished with morphology design (high surface area), catalytic additives (titanium for example), and high purity metals (such as aluminum, Lanthanum, or alkali metals). These favorable hydrogen reaction characteristics often have a related, yet less-desirable effect: sensitivity and reactivity during exposure to ambient contamination and out-of-design environmental conditions. Accident scenarios resulting in this less-favorable reaction behavior must also be managed by the system developer to enable technology deployment and market acceptance. Two important accident scenarios are identified through hazards and risk analysis methods. The first involves a breach in plumbing or tank resulting from a collision. The possible consequence of this scenario is analyzed though experimentally based chemical kinetic and transport modeling of metal hydride beds. An advancing reaction front between the metal hydride and ambient air is observed to proceed throughout the bed. This exothermic reaction front can result in loss of structural integrity of the containing vessel and lead to un-favorable overheating events. The second important

  5. Radon mitigation in cold climates at Kitigan Zibi Anishinabeg.

    PubMed

    Brossard, Mathieu; Ottawa, Céline Brazeau; Falcomer, Renato; Whyte, Jeff

    2015-02-01

    Available radon mitigation results were gathered for 85 houses mainly by installing sub-slab depressurization systems (SSDS) with two types of discharge and fan locations: Above ground level discharge with the fan located in the basement (AGL) or above roof line discharge with the fan located in the attic (ARL). A comparative analysis was made of mitigation efficiency and of exhaust icing. Results show that both SSDS scenarios reduced radon levels similarly. The results of SSDS with AGL show that a sealed radon fan having proper fittings and sealed piping was able to reduce the radon to acceptable levels, and that these installations were less subject to obstructive icing of the exhaust in cold climates.

  6. A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of Shared Climate Policy Assumptions

    SciTech Connect

    Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Ebi, Kristie L.; Kram, Tom; Riahi, Keywan; Winkler, Harald; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2014-04-01

    The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as an important element of the new scenario framework. Shared climate policy assumptions capture key climate policy dimensions such as the type and scale of mitigation and adaptation measures. They are not specified in the socio-economic reference pathways, and therefore introduce an important third dimension to the scenario matrix architecture. Climate policy assumptions will have to be made in any climate policy scenario, and can have a significant impact on the scenario description. We conclude that a meaningful set of shared climate policy assumptions is useful for grouping individual climate policy analyses and facilitating their comparison. Shared climate policy assumptions should be designed to be policy relevant, and as a set to be broad enough to allow a comprehensive exploration of the climate change scenario space.

  7. Coping with Commitment: Projected Thermal Stress on Coral Reefs under Different Future Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Donner, Simon D.

    2009-01-01

    Background Periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures can lead to mass coral bleaching. Past studies have concluded that anthropogenic climate change may rapidly increase the frequency of these thermal stress events, leading to declines in coral cover, shifts in the composition of corals and other reef-dwelling organisms, and stress on the human populations who depend on coral reef ecosystems for food, income and shoreline protection. The ability of greenhouse gas mitigation to alter the near-term forecast for coral reefs is limited by the time lag between greenhouse gas emissions and the physical climate response. Methodology/Principal Findings This study uses observed sea surface temperatures and the results of global climate model forced with five different future emissions scenarios to evaluate the “committed warming” for coral reefs worldwide. The results show that the physical warming commitment from current accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could cause over half of the world's coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent (p≥0.2 year−1) thermal stress by 2080. An additional “societal” warming commitment, caused by the time required to shift from a business-as-usual emissions trajectory to a 550 ppm CO2 stabilization trajectory, may cause over 80% of the world's coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent events by 2030. Thermal adaptation of 1.5°C would delay the thermal stress forecast by 50–80 years. Conclusions/Significance The results suggest that adaptation – via biological mechanisms, coral community shifts and/or management interventions – could provide time to change the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and possibly avoid the recurrence of harmfully frequent events at the majority (97%) of the world's coral reefs this century. Without any thermal adaptation, atmospheric CO2 concentrations may need to be stabilized below current levels to avoid the degradation of coral reef ecosystems from frequent thermal

  8. Climate Change and Aedes Vectors: 21st Century Projections for Dengue Transmission in Europe.

    PubMed

    Liu-Helmersson, Jing; Quam, Mikkel; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Stenlund, Hans; Ebi, Kristie; Massad, Eduardo; Rocklöv, Joacim

    2016-05-01

    Warming temperatures may increase the geographic spread of vector-borne diseases into temperate areas. Although a tropical mosquito-borne viral disease, a dengue outbreak occurred in Madeira, Portugal, in 2012; the first in Europe since 1920s. This outbreak emphasizes the potential for dengue re-emergence in Europe given changing climates. We present estimates of dengue epidemic potential using vectorial capacity (VC) based on historic and projected temperature (1901-2099). VC indicates the vectors' ability to spread disease among humans. We calculated temperature-dependent VC for Europe, highlighting 10 European cities and three non-European reference cities. Compared with the tropics, Europe shows pronounced seasonality and geographical heterogeneity. Although low, VC during summer is currently sufficient for dengue outbreaks in Southern Europe to commence-if sufficient vector populations (either Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) were active and virus were introduced. Under various climate change scenarios, the seasonal peak and time window for dengue epidemic potential increases during the 21st century. Our study maps dengue epidemic potential in Europe and identifies seasonal time windows when major cities are most conducive for dengue transmission from 1901 to 2099. Our findings illustrate, that besides vector control, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions crucially reduces the future epidemic potential of dengue in Europe. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Projected changes in daily fire spread across Canada over the next century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xianli; Parisien, Marc-André; Taylor, Steve W.; Candau, Jean-Noël; Stralberg, Diana; Marshall, Ginny A.; Little, John M.; Flannigan, Mike D.

    2017-02-01

    In the face of climate change, predicting and understanding future fire regimes across Canada is a high priority for wildland fire research and management. Due in large part to the difficulties in obtaining future daily fire weather projections, one of the major challenges in predicting future fire activity is to estimate how much of the change in weather potential could translate into on-the-ground fire spread. As a result, past studies have used monthly, annual, or multi-decadal weather projections to predict future fires, thereby sacrificing information relevant to day-to-day fire spread. Using climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), historical weather observations, MODIS fire detection data, and the national fire database of Canada, this study investigated potential changes in the number of active burning days of wildfires by relating ‘spread days’ to patterns of daily fire-conducive weather. Results suggest that climate change over the next century may have significant impacts on fire spread days in almost all parts of Canada’s forested landmass; the number of fire spread days could experience a 2-to-3-fold increase under a high CO2 forcing scenario in eastern Canada, and a greater than 50% increase in western Canada, where the fire potential is already high. The change in future fire spread is critical in understanding fire regime changes, but is also imminently relevant to fire management operations and in fire risk mitigation.

  10. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  11. Haunted Quantum Entanglement: Two Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snyder, Douglas

    2010-04-01

    Two haunted quantum entanglement scenarios are proposed that are very close to the haunted measurement scenario in that: 1) the entity that is developing as a which-way marker is effectively restored to its state prior to its being fixed as a w-w marker, and 2) the entity for which the developing w-w marker provides information is restored to its state before it interacted with the entity which subsequent to the interaction begins developing as a w-w marker. In the hqe scenarios, the loss of developing w-w information through 1 relies on the loss of a developing entanglement. In scenario 1, the photon initially emitted in one of two micromaser cavities and developing into a w-w marker is effectively lost through the injection of classical microwave radiation into both of the microwave cavities after the atom initially emits the photon into one of the micromaser cavities, exits the cavity system, and before this atom reaches the 2 slit screen. The atom is restored in both of the two new scenarios to its original state before it emitted a photon by an rf coil situated at the exit of the micromaser cavity system. In scenario 2, the cavity system and everything from the atom source forward to the cavity system is enclosed in an evacuated box. After the atom that emits the photon exits the cavity system and before it reaches the 2 slit screen, the cavity system opens (and the photon escapes in the evacuated box) and then the box is opened and the photon escapes into the environment.

  12. Identifying regions vulnerable to habitat degradation under future irrigation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terrado, Marta; Sabater, Sergi; Acuña, Vicenç

    2016-11-01

    The loss and degradation of natural habitats is a primary cause of biodiversity decline. The increasing impacts of climate and land use change affect water availability, ultimately decreasing agricultural production. Areas devoted to irrigation have been increased to compensate this reduction, causing habitat and biodiversity losses, especially in regions undergoing severe water stress. These effects might intensify under global change, probably contributing to a decrease in habitat quality. We selected four European river basins across a gradient of water scarcity and irrigation agriculture. The habitat quality in the basins was assessed as a function of habitat suitability and threats under current and future global change scenarios of irrigation. Results revealed that the most threatened regions under future scenarios of global change were among those suffering of water scarcity and with bigger areas devoted to irrigation. Loss of habitat quality reached 10% in terrestrial and 25% in aquatic ecosystems under climate change scenarios involving drier conditions. The aquatic habitats were the most degraded in all scenarios, since they were affected by threats from both the terrestrial and the aquatic parts of the basin. By identifying in advance the regions most vulnerable to habitat and biodiversity loss, our approach can assist decision makers in deciding the conservation actions to be prioritized for mitigation and adaptation to the effects of climate change, particularly front the development of irrigation plans.

  13. Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair

    2016-09-01

    Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment of BECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a scale, and CCS technologies have been demonstrated but not commercially established. Here we present the results of an expert elicitation process that explores the explicit and implicit assumptions underpinning the feasibility of BECCS in IAM scenarios. Our results show that the assumptions are considered realistic regarding technical aspects of CCS but unrealistic regarding the extent of bioenergy deployment, and development of adequate societal support and governance structures for BECCS. The results highlight concerns about the assumed magnitude of carbon dioxide removal achieved across a full BECCS supply chain, with the greatest uncertainty in bioenergy production. Unrealistically optimistic assumptions regarding the future availability of BECCS in IAM scenarios could lead to the overshoot of critical warming limits and have significant impacts on near-term mitigation options.

  14. [Femicides: concepts, types and scenarios].

    PubMed

    Meneghel, Stela Nazareth; Portella, Ana Paula

    2017-09-01

    This text is a theoretical essay that discusses the concepts, types and scenarios of feminicides, and presents some proposals for the prevention of these premature, unjust and avoidable deaths. The text revisits the original concept of femicide proposed by Diana Russell and Jane Caputti and shows new and old scenarios where these crimes occur. It points to patriarchy, understood as being a hierarchical system of power between men and women, as one of the main determinants of these deaths. It ends by presenting actions and proposals to prevent and combat these gender crimes.

  15. Assessing the Health Benefits of Urban Air Pollution Reductions Associated with Climate Change Mitigation (2000-2020): Santiago, Sao Paulo, Mexico City, and New York City

    SciTech Connect

    2001-06-01

    To investigate the potential local health benefits of adopting greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies, developed scenarios of GHG mitigation for Mexico City, Mexico; Santiago, Chile; Sao Paulo, Brazil; and New York, New York, USA using air pollution health impact factors appropriate to each city. These findings illustrated that GHG mitigation can provide considerable local air pollution-related public health benefits to countries that choose to abate GHG emissions by reducing fossil fuel combustion.

  16. Projections of 21st Century African Climate: Implications for African Savanna Fire Dynamics, Human Health and Food Security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adegoke, J. O.

    2015-12-01

    Fire is a key agent of change in the African savannas, which are shaped through the complex interactions between trees, C4 grasses, rainfall, temperature, CO2 and fire. These fires and their emitted smoke can have numerous direct and indirect effects on the environment, water resources, air quality, and climate. For instance, veld fires in southern Africa cause large financial losses to agriculture, livestock production and forestry on an annual basis. This study contributes to our understanding of the implications of projected surface temperature evolution in Africa for fire risk, human health and agriculture over the coming decades. We use an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations of African climate for the 21st century. Regional dowscalings and recent global circulation model projections obtained for Africa indicate that African temperatures are likely to rise at 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the tropics, and at almost twice the global rate of increase in the subtropics. Warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with increases of 4-6 °C over the subtropics and 3-5 °C over the tropics plausible by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (low mitigation) scenario. We explore the significance of the projected warming by documenting increases in projected high fire danger days and heat-wave days. General drying is projected across the continent, even for areas (e.g. tropical Africa) where an increase in rainfall is plausible. This is due to the drastic increases in temperature that are projected, which leads to drier soils (through enhanced evaporation) despite the rainfall increases. This will likely impact negatively on crop yield, particularly on the maize crop that is of crucial importance in terms of African food security.

  17. Passive Thrust Oscillation Mitigation for the CEV Crew Pallet System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sammons, Matthew; Powell, Cory; Pellicciotti, Joseph; Buehrle, Ralph; Johnson, Keith

    2012-01-01

    The Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) was intended to be the next-generation human spacecraft for the Constellation Program. The CEV Isolator Strut mechanism was designed to mitigate loads imparted to the CEV crew caused by the Thrust Oscillation (TO) phenomenon of the proposed Ares I Launch Vehicle (LV). The Isolator Strut was also designed to be compatible with Launch Abort (LA) contingencies and landing scenarios. Prototype struts were designed, built, and tested in component, sub-system, and system-level testing. The design of the strut, the results of the tests, and the conclusions and lessons learned from the program will be explored in this paper.

  18. Creating pedestrian crash scenarios in a driving simulator environment.

    PubMed

    Chrysler, Susan T; Ahmad, Omar; Schwarz, Chris W

    2015-01-01

    adjust time to arrival triggers for the pedestrian actions. This article discusses the rationale behind creating the simulator scenarios and some of the procedural considerations for conducting this type of research. Crash analyses can be used to construct test scenarios for driver behavior evaluations using driving simulators. By considering trajectories, roadway, and environmental conditions of real-world crashes, representative virtual scenarios can serve as safe test beds for advanced driver assistance systems. The results of such research can be used to inform pedestrian crash avoidance/mitigation systems by identifying driver error, driver response time, and driver response choice (i.e., steering vs. braking).

  19. Projection of drought hazards in China during twenty-first century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Yulian; Wang, Yongli; Yan, Xiaodong; Liu, Wenbin; Jin, Shaofei; Han, Mingchen

    2017-06-01

    Drought is occurring with increased frequency under climate warming. To understand the behavior of drought and its variation in the future, current and future drought in the twenty-first century over China is discussed. The drought frequency and trend of drought intensity are assessed using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which is calculated based on historical meteorological observations and outputs of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The simulation results of drought period, defined by PDSI class, could capture more than 90% of historical drought events. Projection results indicate that drought frequency will increase over China in the twenty-first century under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In the mid-twenty-first century (2021-2050), similar patterns of drought frequency are found under the three emission scenarios, and annual drought duration would last 3.5-4 months. At the end of the twenty-first century (2071-2100), annual drought duration could exceed 5 months in northwestern China as well as coastal areas of eastern and southern China under the RCP8.5 scenario. Drought is slightly reduced over the entire twenty-first century under the RCP2.6 scenario, whereas drought hazards will be more serious in most regions of China under the RCP8.5 scenario.

  20. Greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture.

    PubMed

    Smith, Pete; Martino, Daniel; Cai, Zucong; Gwary, Daniel; Janzen, Henry; Kumar, Pushpam; McCarl, Bruce; Ogle, Stephen; O'Mara, Frank; Rice, Charles; Scholes, Bob; Sirotenko, Oleg; Howden, Mark; McAllister, Tim; Pan, Genxing; Romanenkov, Vladimir; Schneider, Uwe; Towprayoon, Sirintornthep; Wattenbach, Martin; Smith, Jo

    2008-02-27

    Agricultural lands occupy 37% of the earth's land surface. Agriculture accounts for 52 and 84% of global anthropogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions. Agricultural soils may also act as a sink or source for CO2, but the net flux is small. Many agricultural practices can potentially mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the most prominent of which are improved cropland and grazing land management and restoration of degraded lands and cultivated organic soils. Lower, but still significant mitigation potential is provided by water and rice management, set-aside, land use change and agroforestry, livestock management and manure management. The global technical mitigation potential from agriculture (excluding fossil fuel offsets from biomass) by 2030, considering all gases, is estimated to be approximately 5500-6000Mt CO2-eq.yr-1, with economic potentials of approximately 1500-1600, 2500-2700 and 4000-4300Mt CO2-eq.yr-1 at carbon prices of up to 20, up to 50 and up to 100 US$ t CO2-eq.-1, respectively. In addition, GHG emissions could be reduced by substitution of fossil fuels for energy production by agricultural feedstocks (e.g. crop residues, dung and dedicated energy crops). The economic mitigation potential of biomass energy from agriculture is estimated to be 640, 2240 and 16 000Mt CO2-eq.yr-1 at 0-20, 0-50 and 0-100 US$ t CO2-eq.-1, respectively.

  1. Remote Sensing Technologies Mitigate Drought

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2015-01-01

    Ames Research Center has partnered with the California Department of Water Resources to develop satellite-based technologies to mitigate drought conditions. One project aims to help water managers adjust their irrigation to match the biological needs of each crop, and another involves monitoring areas where land is fallow so emergency relief can more quickly aid affected communities.

  2. The Vulnerability Assessment & Mitigation Methodology

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-01-01

    Defense Systems........................................ 111 A.37. Vulnerabilities That Can Be Incurred from Vaccination ........... 112 A.38...protect against future threats or system failures while mitigating current and past threats and weaknesses. Also, sophisticated adver - saries are...and recovery • Adaptability and learning • Immunological defense systems • Vaccination ISR and Self-Awareness • Intelligence operations • Self

  3. Space debris detection and mitigation

    SciTech Connect

    Allahdadi, F.

    1993-01-01

    Space debris is defined as all useless man-made objects in space. This conference covers the following areas: debris detection, tracking, and surveillance; orbital debris analytical modeling; debris environment and safety issues; and orbital debris mitigation. Separate abstracts were prepared for 26 papers in this conference.

  4. Lunar Dust: Characterization and Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hyatt. Mark J.; Feighery, John

    2007-01-01

    Lunar dust is a ubiquitous phenomenon which must be explicitly addressed during upcoming human lunar exploration missions. Near term plans to revisit the moon as a stepping stone for further exploration of Mars, and beyond, places a primary emphasis on characterization and mitigation of lunar dust. Comprised of regolith particles ranging in size from tens of nanometers to microns, lunar dust is a manifestation of the complex interaction of the lunar soil with multiple mechanical, electrical, and gravitational effects. The environmental and anthropogenic factors effecting the perturbation, transport, and deposition of lunar dust must be studied in order to mitigate it's potentially harmful effects on exploration systems. The same hold true for assessing the risk it may pose for toxicological health problems if inhaled. This paper presents the current perspective and implementation of dust knowledge management and integration, and mitigation technology development activities within NASA's Exploration Technology Development Program. This work is presented within the context of the Constellation Program's Integrated Lunar Dust Management Strategy. This work further outlines the scientific basis for lunar dust behavior, it's characteristics and potential effects, and surveys several potential strategies for its control and mitigation both for lunar surface operations and within the working volumes of a lunar outpost. The paper also presents a perspective on lessons learned from Apollo and forensics engineering studies of Apollo hardware.

  5. Radiosensitizers, radioprotectors, and radiation mitigators.

    PubMed

    Raviraj, Jayam; Bokkasam, Vijay Kumar; Kumar, Venkata Suneel; Reddy, Uday Shankar; Suman, Venkata

    2014-01-01

    Radiotherapy is regarded as one of the most important therapeutic modality for the treatment of malignant lesions. This field is undergoing rapid advancements in the recent times. With the use of radiosensitizers and radioprotective agents, the course of radiotherapy has improved the sensitization of tumor cells and protection of normal cells, respectively. The aim of this paper was to critically review and analyze the available compounds used as radiosensitizers, radioprotectors, and radiation mitigators. For reviewing, the author used the electronic search for the keywords 'Radiosensitizers', 'Radioprotectors', 'Radiation mitigators' on PubMed for inclusion of previously published articles and further search of reference papers on individual radiosensitizing and radioprotecting agents was done. Radiosensitizers are agents that sensitize the tumor cells to radiation. These compounds apparently promote fixation of the free radicals produced by radiation damage at the molecular level. The mechanism of action is similar to the oxygen effect, in which biochemical reactions in the damaged molecules prevent repair of the cellular radiation damage. Free radicals such as OH + are captured by the electron affinity of the radiosensitizers, rendering the molecules incapable of repair. Radioprotectors are compounds that are designed to reduce the damage in normal tissues caused by radiation. These compounds are often antioxidants and must be present before or at the time of radiation for effectiveness. Other agents, termed mitigators, may be used to minimize toxicity even after radiation has been delivered. This article tries to discuss the various aspects of radiosensitizers, radioprotectors, and radiation mitigators including the newer agents.

  6. RADON MITIGATION STUDIES: NASHVILLE DEMONSTRATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report gives results of an EPA radon mitigation demonstration project involving 14 houses in the Nashville, TN, area with indoor radon levels of 5.6-47.6 pCi/L, using a variety of techniques, designed to be the most cost effective methods possible to implement, and yet adequa...

  7. Mitigating Radicalism in Northern Nigeria

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-08-01

    radicalization in northern Nigeria. u Active engagement of youth and communities in peacebuilding programs that facilitate interactions among individuals...leaders, sustained development investments in marginalized communities , promotion of values of inclusivity to mitigate the spread of extremist ideology...claiming to have repelled Boko Haram, the militants return, regroup, and seek revenge. As a result, social and economic activities in the northern

  8. Mitigating Higher Ed Cyber Attacks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rogers, Gary; Ashford, Tina

    2015-01-01

    In this presentation we will discuss the many and varied cyber attacks that have recently occurred in the higher ed community. We will discuss the perpetrators, the victims, the impact and how these institutions have evolved to meet this threat. Mitigation techniques and defense strategies will be covered as will a discussion of effective security…

  9. Scenario of Architectural Education in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dua, S.; Chahal, K. S.

    2014-09-01

    The dictionary meaning of education is to develop mentally and morally. A good holistic architectural education, therefore, is a combination of skills, information, as well as values. It is somewhat unique. The evaluation process is continuous in nature and in addition to the traditional means of assessment, the training in architectural education consists of varied interrelated parts-theory, field visit and studio/workshop. To certain extent the subjective nature of the design studio projects provides challenges and opportunities for both students and faculty members, in terms of acquiring necessary skills at the part of the students, and, necessity to update and upgrade continually with the changing pace at the part of the teachers. Technology continues to grow at a rapid pace; equipping the students to meet the complex demands of the profession; the curriculum structure and focus and value system must facilitate the relationship between general education and specialized study. Architects must acquire and understand the required information and find ways to put it in order and apply it to particular settings especially in this era of MNCs and BPOs. The paper discusses the current scenario of architectural education in India and affirms the need for change in this education from generalized study which had been in practice in twentieth century to a more relevant, specialised, and value-based education addressing technical and humanistic challenges more objectively in these vastly changing, socio-economic and political trends at global and regional levels.

  10. Particle production in Ekpyrotic scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Hipólito-Ricaldi, W.S.; Brandenberger, Robert; Ferreira, Elisa G.M.; Graef, L.L.

    2016-11-09

    We consider Parker particle production in the Ekpyrotic scenario (in particular in the New Ekpyrotic model) and show that the density of particles produced by the end of the phase of Ekpyrotic contraction can be sufficient to lead to a hot state of matter after the bounce. Hence, no separate reheating mechanism is necessary.

  11. Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mckay, Mary Fae (Editor); Mckay, David S. (Editor); Duke, Michael B. (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.

  12. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kopnina, Helen

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are…

  13. Ultra-Perfect Sorting Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouangraoua, Aïda; Bergeron, Anne; Swenson, Krister M.

    Perfection has been used as a criteria to select rearrangement scenarios since 2004. However, there is a fundamental bias towards extant species in the original definition: ancestral species are not bound to perfection. Here we develop a new theory of perfection that takes an egalitarian view of species, and apply it to the complex evolution of mammal chromosome X.

  14. Transportation scenarios for risk analysis.

    SciTech Connect

    Weiner, Ruth F.

    2010-09-01

    Transportation risk, like any risk, is defined by the risk triplet: what can happen (the scenario), how likely it is (the probability), and the resulting consequences. This paper evaluates the development of transportation scenarios, the associated probabilities, and the consequences. The most likely radioactive materials transportation scenario is routine, incident-free transportation, which has a probability indistinguishable from unity. Accident scenarios in radioactive materials transportation are of three different types: accidents in which there is no impact on the radioactive cargo, accidents in which some gamma shielding may be lost but there is no release of radioactive material, and accident in which radioactive material may potentially be released. Accident frequencies, obtainable from recorded data validated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, are considered equivalent to accident probabilities in this study. Probabilities of different types of accidents are conditional probabilities, conditional on an accident occurring, and are developed from event trees. Development of all of these probabilities and the associated highway and rail accident event trees are discussed in this paper.

  15. Managing U.S. climate risk through mitigation: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Houser, T.; Larsen, K.; Rasmussen, D. M., Jr.; Jina, A.; Rising, J.; Delgado, M.; Mohan, S.; Muir-Wood, R.; Wilson, P. S.

    2014-12-01

    The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the technical analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the economic risks posed to the United States by six categories of climate change impacts: crop yield, energy demand, coastal storm damage, criminal activity, labor productivity, and mortality [1]. At a national level, measured by impact on gross domestic product, increased mortality and decreased labor productivity pose the large risks, followed by increased energy demand and coastal damages. Changes in crop yield and crime have smaller impacts. The ACP was not intended to conduct a benefit-cost analysis of climate change mitigation. It assessed the economic consequences of future impacts on an economy with a structure equivalent to that of the current economy, not accounting for socio-economic development and adaptation, and did not assess the cost of mitigation. One of its primary goals was to inform adaptation decisions that are conventionally considered 'endogenous' in economic analyses of climate change. Nonetheless, its results provide insight into the potential of mitigation to manage climate risk. Differences between RCP 8.5 (moderately-high business-as-usual emissions), RCP 4.5 (moderate mitigation) and RCP 2.6 (extremely strong mitigation) are not apparent until mid-century and become significant only late in the century. For all impacts except coastal damages, mitigation significantly reduces uncertainty in late-century impact estimates. Nationally, mitigation significantly and monotonically reduces median projected labor productivity losses and violent crime. Switching from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 also significantly reduces median projections of mortality and energy demand, but the domestic value to the U.S. of further mitigation to RCP 2.6 is less clear. The marginal benefits decline in part because some regions of the country (especially the Northwest) may experience increased crop yields, reduced mortality, and reduced energy

  16. Analysing the climatic extremes of future projections for the MedCORDEX domain using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartholy, Judit; Pongracz, Rita; Pieczka, Ildiko; Szabone Andre, Karolina

    2017-04-01

    In this study HadGEM2 global climate model outputs were downscaled with RegCM4.3 for the entire MED-44 CORDEX area for the period 1950-2099 using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario. The 50-km resolution RegCM-outputs served as input for further downscaling using 10 km as a horizontal resolution for a smaller domain covering Central Europe with special focus on the Carpathian Region. RCP4.5 is a stabilization scenario while RCP8.5 is a rising radiative forcing pathway, therefore, the difference in the simulation outputs helps to quantify the inertia of the climate system, the importance of anthropogenic influence on climate, and shows the evidence for the need of mitigation and adaptation measures. Evidently, higher temperature change corresponds to RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. The difference of global and/or regional warming between the two scenario can reach (or even exceed) 2 °C from the second part of the century. Differences in precipitation projections are less straightforward to explain as no direct link exists with warming and radiative forcing, however, the annual distribution of precipitation is projected to change, which may lead to important consequences on society. Our analysis compares the estimated temperature and precipitation changes with special focus on extreme climatic conditions for the following 10 subregions of the MED-44 CORDEX area: Iberian Peninsula, Apennine Peninsula, Balkan Region, Asia Minor, East European Plain, Middle European Plain, Carpathian Basin, Carpathian Mountains, Alps, Western Europe.

  17. Lunar Dust Mitigation Technology Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hyatt, Mark J.; Deluane, Paul B.

    2008-01-01

    NASA s plans for implementing the Vision for Space Exploration include returning to the moon as a stepping stone for further exploration of Mars, and beyond. Dust on the lunar surface has a ubiquitous presence which must be explicitly addressed during upcoming human lunar exploration missions. While the operational challenges attributable to dust during the Apollo missions did not prove critical, the comparatively long duration of impending missions presents a different challenge. Near term plans to revisit the moon places a primary emphasis on characterization and mitigation of lunar dust. Comprised of regolith particles ranging in size from tens of nanometers to microns, lunar dust is a manifestation of the complex interaction of the lunar soil with multiple mechanical, electrical, and gravitational effects. The environmental and anthropogenic factors effecting the perturbation, transport, and deposition of lunar dust must be studied in order to mitigate it s potentially harmful effects on exploration systems. This paper presents the current perspective and implementation of dust knowledge management and integration, and mitigation technology development activities within NASA s Exploration Technology Development Program. This work is presented within the context of the Constellation Program s Integrated Lunar Dust Management Strategy. The Lunar Dust Mitigation Technology Development project has been implemented within the ETDP. Project scope and plans will be presented, along with a a perspective on lessons learned from Apollo and forensics engineering studies of Apollo hardware. This paper further outlines the scientific basis for lunar dust behavior, it s characteristics and potential effects, and surveys several potential strategies for its control and mitigation both for lunar surface operations and within the working volumes of a lunar outpost.

  18. Forest management as possible driver in mitigating climate change impacts at northern latitudes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collalti, Alessio; Trotta, Carlo; Santini, Monia; Matteucci, Giorgio

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is likely to impact the dynamics of carbon and water cycles in forests over the next century. To date, it is still debated how forests will react. Some key variables may help in understanding the extent at which terrestrial ecosystems will be affected. Carbon Use Efficiency (CUE) and Water Use Efficiency (WUE) represent some of these key aspects. CUE represents the capacity of the forests to transfer carbon from the atmosphere to the terrestrial biomass, WUE the carbon gained for the water lost via canopy transpiration. Hence, both are key variables since they intimately represent the effects of several coupled ecophysiological processes affected by climate change. Here, we analyzed how within the 3D-CMCC-CNR FEM, forced by five general circulation model data and the four representative concentration pathways, the modeled CUE and WUE are affected by, from seasonal to over medium- and long-time period, warming, rising atmospheric [CO2] and management, assessing at which extent each component influences model results in an existing boreal forest in Finland. The 3D-CMCC-CNR FEM model results reveal that CUE tends to decrease with warmer scenarios, and management may greatly dampen the effects but only in the short- to medium-time period. WUE can increase consistently owing to the increasing of the CO2 fertilization if coupled with management. These results confirm also, at stand spatial scale resolution, what found globally in other recent studies and suggesting to consider for long-term period alternative forest management practices to enhance these effects in mitigating climate change.

  19. Global warming mitigation by sulphur loading in the atmosphere: Required emissions and possible side effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eliseev, A. V.; Mokhov, I. I.; Chernokulsky, A. V.; Karpenko, A. A.

    2009-04-01

    An approach to mitigate the global warming via sulphur loading in the stratosphere (geoengineering) is studied employing a large ensemble of numerical experiments with the climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS (IAP RAS CM). The model is forced by the historical+SRES A1B anthropogenical greenhouse gases+tropospheric sulphates scenario for 1860-2100 with an additional sulphur emissions in the stratosphere in the 21st century. Different ensemble members were constructed by varying emission intensity, residence time, optical properites, and horizontal distributions of stratospheric sulphates. In addition, starting and ending years of applied emissions are varied between different ensemble members. Given global loading of the sulphates in the stratosphere, at the global basis, the most efficient latitudinal distribution of geoengineering aerosols is that peaked between 50∘N and 70∘N. Uniform latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates is slightly less efficient. Sulphur emissions in the stratosphere required to stop the global temperature at the level corresponding to the mean value for 2000-2010 amount 5 - 10 TgS/yr in year 2050 and > 10 TgS/yr in year 2100. This is not a small part of the current emissions of tropospheric sulphates. Moreover, even if the global warming is stopped, temperature changes in different regions still occur with a magnitude up to 1 K. Their horizontal pattern depends on implied latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates. If the geoengineering emissions are stopped, their climatic effect is removed within a few decades. In this period, surface air temperture may change with a rate of several Kelvins per decade. The results obtained with the IAP RAS CM are further interpreted by making use of an energy-balance climate model. As a whole, the results obtained with this simpler model support conclusions made on the basis of the IAP RAS CM simulations.

  20. Simulation of targeted pollutant-mitigation-strategies to reduce nitrate and sediment hotspots in agricultural watershed.

    PubMed

    Teshager, Awoke Dagnew; Gassman, Philip W; Secchi, Silvia; Schoof, Justin T

    2017-12-31

    About 50% of U.S. water pollution problems are caused by non-point source (NPS) pollution, primarily sediment and nutrients from agricultural areas, despite the widespread implementation of agricultural Best Management Practices (BMPs). However, the effectiveness of implementation strategies and type of BMPs at watershed scale are still not well understood. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) ecohydrological model was used to assess the effectiveness of pollutant mitigation strategies in the Raccoon River watershed (RRW) in west-central Iowa, USA. We analyzed fourteen management scenarios based on systematic combinations of five strategies: fertilizer/manure management, changing row-crop land to perennial grass, vegetative filter strips, cover crops and shallower tile drainage systems, specifically aimed at reducing nitrate and total suspended sediment yields from hotspot areas in the RRW. Moreover, we assessed implications of climate change on management practices, and the impacts of management practices on water availability, row crop yield, and total agricultural production. Our results indicate that sufficient reduction of nitrate load may require either implementation of multiple management practices (38.5% with current setup) or conversion of extensive areas into perennial grass (up to 49.7%) to meet and maintain the drinking water standard. However, climate change may undermine the effectiveness of management practices, especially late in the 21st century, cutting the reduction by up to 65% for nitrate and more for sediment loads. Further, though our approach is targeted, it resulted in a slight decrease (~5%) in watershed average crop yield and hence an overall reduction in total crop production, mainly due to the conversion of row-crop lands to perennial grass. Such yield reductions could be quite spatially heterogeneously distributed (0 to 40%). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Policy trade-offs between climate mitigation and clean cook-stove access in South Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cameron, Colin; Pachauri, Shonali; Rao, Narasimha D.; McCollum, David; Rogelj, Joeri; Riahi, Keywan

    2016-01-01

    Household air pollution from traditional cook stoves presents a greater health hazard than any other environmental factor. Despite government efforts to support clean-burning cooking fuels, over 700 million people in South Asia could still rely on traditional stoves in 2030. This number could rise if climate change mitigation efforts increase energy costs. Here we quantify the costs of support policies to make clean cooking affordable to all South Asians under four increasingly stringent climate policy scenarios. Our most stringent mitigation scenario increases clean fuel costs 38% in 2030 relative to the baseline, keeping 21% more South Asians on traditional stoves or increasing the minimum support policy cost to achieve universal clean cooking by up to 44%. The extent of this increase depends on how policymakers allocate subsidies between clean fuels and stoves. These additional costs are within the range of financial transfers to South Asia estimated in efforts-sharing scenarios of international climate agreements.

  2. Conceptual Study on Air Ingress Mitigation for VHTRs

    SciTech Connect

    Chang H. Oh; Eung S. Kim

    2012-09-01

    An air-ingress accident followed by a pipe break is considered as a critical event for a very high temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR) safety. Following helium depressurization, it is anticipated that unless countermeasures are taken, air will enter the core through the break leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structure. Thus, without mitigation features, this accident might lead to severe exothermic chemical reactions of graphite and oxygen depending on the accident scenario and the design. Under extreme circumstances, a loss of core structural integrity may occur and lead to a detrimental situation for the VHTR safety. This paper discusses various air-ingress mitigation concepts applicable for the VHTRs. The study begins with identifying important factors (or phenomena) associated with the air-ingress accident using a root-cause analysis. By preventing main causes of the important events identified in the root-cause diagram, the basic air-ingress mitigation ideas were conceptually developed. Among them, two concepts were finally evaluated as effective candidates. One concept is to inject helium into the lower plenum which is a direct in-vessel helium injection. The other concept is to enclose the reactor with a non-pressure boundary consisting of an opening at the bottom, which is an ex-vessel enclosure boundary. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods were used to validate these concepts. As a result, it was shown that both concepts can effectively mitigate the air-ingress process. In the first concept, the injected helium replaces the air in the core and the lower plenum upper part by buoyancy force because of its low density. It prevented air from moving into the reactor core showing great potential for mitigating graphite oxidation in the core. In the second concept, the air-ingress rate is controlled by molecular diffusion through the opening at the enclosure bottom after depressurization. Some modified reactor cavity design is expected to

  3. Preparing to Prevent: Conflict-Related Sexual Violence Mitigation Scenario-Based Training

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-11-26

    as human trafficking . Host state education programs will be vital to shape attitudes, stress the importance of eliminating CRSV, and counter...assault, trafficking , inappropriate medical examinations, and strip searches. CRSV frequently occurs when undisciplined militaries, police forces, or...against humanity and may occur as part of a deliberate and systematic campaign to target a victim group (for example, to destroy families and communities

  4. Forest fire scenario and challenges of mitigation during fire season in North East India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chakraborty, K.; Mondal, P. P.; Chabukdhara, M.; Sudhakar, S.

    2014-11-01

    Forest fires are a major environmental problem in North East Region (NER) with large tracts of forest areas being affected in every season. Forest fires have become a major threat to the forest ecosystems in the region, leading to loss of timber, biodiversity, wildlife habitat and loss to other natural resources. Studies on forest fire have reported that about 50% of forest fire in the country takes place in NE region. The forest fire in NER is anthropogenic in nature. The forest fire hazard map generated based on appropriate weightage given to the factors affecting fire behavior like topography, fuel characteristic and proximity to roads, settlements and also historical fire locations helped to demarcate the fire prone zones. Whereas, during fire season the weather pattern also governs the fire spread in the given area. Therefore, various data on fuel characteristics (land use/land cover, forest type map, forest density map), topography (DEM, slope, aspect) proximity to settlement, road, waterbodies, meteorological data from AWS on wind speed, wind direction, dew point have been used for each fire point to rank its possible hazard level. Near real time fire location data obtained from MODIS/FIRMSwere used to generate the fire alerts. This work demonstrates dissemination of information in the form of maps and tables containing information of latitude and longitude of fire location, fire occurrence date, state and district name, LULC, road connectivity, slope and aspect, settlements/water bodies and meteorological data and the corresponding rating of possibility of fire spread to the respective fire control authorities during fire season.

  5. Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new world.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Kevin; Bows, Alice

    2011-01-13

    The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community's commitment to 'hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius'. Yet its preferred focus on global emission peak dates and longer-term reduction targets, without recourse to cumulative emission budgets, belies seriously the scale and scope of mitigation necessary to meet such a commitment. Moreover, the pivotal importance of emissions from non-Annex 1 nations in shaping available space for Annex 1 emission pathways received, and continues to receive, little attention. Building on previous studies, this paper uses a cumulative emissions framing, broken down to Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, to understand the implications of rapid emission growth in nations such as China and India, for mitigation rates elsewhere. The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2°C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2°C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropriately represents the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy.

  6. The Impact of New Estimates of Mixing Ratio and Flux-based Halogen Scenarios on Ozone Evolution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oman, Luke D.; Douglass, Anne R.; Liang, Qing; Strahan, Susan E.

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of ozone in the 21st century has been shown to be mainly impacted by the halogen emissions scenario and predicted changes in the circulation of the stratosphere. New estimates of mixing ratio and flux-based emission scenarios have been produced from the SPARC Lifetime Assessment 2013. Simulations using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) are conducted using this new A1 2014 halogen scenario and compared to ones using the A1 2010 scenario. This updated version of GEOSCCM includes a realistic representation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and improvements related to the break up of the Antarctic polar vortex. We will present results of the ozone evol