Science.gov

Sample records for change 1990-2001 emission

  1. Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2001

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    View the 2003 U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory developed by the U.S. Government to meet U.S. commitments under the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This version of the inventory covers the period from 1990 to 2001.

  2. [Mortality from suicides: Mexico, 1990-2001].

    PubMed

    Puentes-Rosas, Esteban; López-Nieto, Leopoldo; Martínez-Monroy, Tania

    2004-08-01

    To describe mortality from suicides in Mexico in 2001, as well as the main changes in the methods used to commit suicide and in trends by age and gender that have been observed since 1990, both for the country as a whole and for each state. For this descriptive study we utilized as information sources the official mortality records of the National Institute of Statistics, Geography, and Informatics (Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática) for the period of 1990 through 2001. To calculate mortality rates we used the populations estimated in 2002 by the National Population Council (Consejo Nacional de Población). Mortality was described by sex, age group, and state, along with the changes seen over the period of 1990 through 2001 in the rates and methods of suicide. We used the direct method to standardize the rates, using as a reference the population data for the year 2000. To make statistical comparisons of the trends by age group and gender we used a test of parallelism utilizing the F statistic. The level of statistical significance of differences in suicide methods was determined with the chi-square test. During 2001, 3,784 suicides were registered (3,110 of them in men and 674 in women), which represents a rate of 3.72 deaths from suicide per 100,000 persons, in a total national population of 101.8 million inhabitants. The states with the highest suicide mortality were Campeche and Tabasco (9.68 and 8.47 per 100,000, respectively). The lowest rates were seen in Chiapas and the state of Mexico (1.03 and 1.99 per 100,000, respectively). In 2001, mortality from suicides per 100,000 persons was 6.14 in men and 1.32 in women. The greatest increase by age group was seen in women 11-19 years old (from 0.8 per 100,000 in 1990 to 2.27 per 100,000 in 2001). The largest increase in men also occurred among those 11-19 years old (from 2.6 per 100,000 in 1990 to 4.5 per 100,000 in 2001). The highest rate (13.62 per 100,000 persons) was seen in men

  3. Correlates of Alaska Native Fatal and Nonfatal Suicidal Behaviors 1990-2001

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wexler, Lisa; Hill, Ryan; Bertone-Johnson, Elizabeth; Fenaughty, Andrea

    2008-01-01

    Factors correlated with suicidal behavior in a predominately Alaska Native region of Alaska are described, and the correlates relating to fatal and nonfatal suicide behaviors in this indigenous population are distinguished. Suicide data from the region (1990-2001) were aggregated and compared to 2000 U.S. Census Data using chi-squared tests.…

  4. Correlates of Alaska Native Fatal and Nonfatal Suicidal Behaviors 1990-2001

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wexler, Lisa; Hill, Ryan; Bertone-Johnson, Elizabeth; Fenaughty, Andrea

    2008-01-01

    Factors correlated with suicidal behavior in a predominately Alaska Native region of Alaska are described, and the correlates relating to fatal and nonfatal suicide behaviors in this indigenous population are distinguished. Suicide data from the region (1990-2001) were aggregated and compared to 2000 U.S. Census Data using chi-squared tests.…

  5. FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) Aviation Forecasts, Fiscal Years 1990-2001

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-03-01

    REVENUE PASSENGER commuter type aircraft (see technical notes at the beginning of Chapter X ENPLANEMENTS for Table 7 and Table 15 ). At the industry level...Aviation Administration Fiscal Years 1990-2001 Office of Aviation Policy and Plans 14. Sponsoring Agency Code Washington, DC 20591 15 . Supplementary Notes 10...flight services performed. Hours flown by general aviation are forecast to increase 19.2 percent and revenue passenger miles (RPM’s) are forecast to

  6. Trend of increase in the incidence of acute myocardial infarction in a Japanese population: Takashima AMI Registry, 1990-2001.

    PubMed

    Rumana, Nahid; Kita, Yoshikuni; Turin, Tanvir Chowdhury; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Sugihara, Hideki; Morita, Yutaka; Tomioka, Nobuyoshi; Okayama, Akira; Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Abbott, Robert D; Ueshima, Hirotsugu

    2008-06-01

    The incidence and mortality of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) remain low in Japan despite major dietary changes and worsening cardiovascular risk factors, a situation that should have resulted in a substantial increase in AMI rates (Japanese paradox). The current trend in the incidence of AMI was examined for the period 1990-2001 by use of data from the Takashima AMI Registry covering a stable population of approximately 55,000 in central Japan. AMI incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for 1990-1992, 1993-1995, 1996-1998, and 1999-2001. The incidence trend was determined by calculating the average annual change in percentage across the years. There were 352 (men: n = 224; women: n = 128) registered first-ever AMI cases during 1990-2001. The age-adjusted incidence rate of all AMI showed a gradual increase from 39.9 (95% confidence interval (CI): 29.8, 50.0) in 1990-1992 to 62.6 (95% CI: 51.5, 73.7) in 1999-2001. In men, the age-adjusted incidence rate increased from 66.5 (95% CI: 46.4, 86.6) in 1990-1992 to 100.7 (95% CI: 78.6, 122.7) in 1999-2001. In women, fluctuation was observed after an initial steep increase. The average annual incidence increased by 7.6% (95% CI: 3.5, 11.7) among men and by 8.3% (95% CI: 1.02, 15.6) among women. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to report an increasing trend of AMI in a Japanese population.

  7. Prevalence of Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors in Pilot Fatalities of Civil Aviation Accidents, 1990-2001

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-05-01

    searched to ascertain the number of 1990-2001 aviation accidents and associated pilot fatalities (cases) from which CAMI received post - mortem biological...Company, Inc., 2002. 32. Pounder DJ, Jones GR. Post - mortem drug redis- tribution—a toxicological nightmare. Forensic Sci Int 1990; 45:253-63. 33...Contained 17% carboxyhemoglobin and 0.31 µg·mL−1 cyanide. **Air taxi and commuter accident. ††Blood not available. 14 T ab le V III . C ita lo pr am

  8. Genotoxic effects of ethylene oxide, propylene oxide and epichlorohydrin in humans: update review (1990-2001).

    PubMed

    Kolman, Ada; Chovanec, Miroslav; Osterman-Golkar, Siv

    2002-12-01

    Ethylene oxide (EtO), propylene oxide (PO) and epichlorohydrin (ECH) are important industrial chemicals widely used as intermediates for various synthetic products. EtO and PO are also environmental pollutants. In this review we summarize data published during the period 1990-2001 concerning both the genotoxic and carcinogenic effects of these epoxides in humans. The use of DNA and hemoglobin adducts as biomarkers of exposure and the role of polymorphism, as well as confounding factors, are discussed. We have also included recent in vitro data comprising genotoxic effects induced by EtO, PO and ECH in mammalian cells. The uncertainties regarding cancer risk estimation still persist, in spite of the large database collected.

  9. Teaching migration routes to canada geese and trumpeter swans using ultralight aircraft, 1990-2001

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sladen, William J. L.; Lishman, W.A.; Ellis, D.H.; Shire, G.G.; Rininger, D.L.; Rees, Eileen C.; Earnst, Susan L.; Coulson, John C.

    2002-01-01

    This paper summarizes eleven years (1990-2001) of experiments to teach Canada Geese (Branta canadensis) and Trumpeter Swans (Cygnus buccinator) pre-selected migration routes using ultralight aircraft. When Canada Geese were trained to follow an ultralight aircraft for southward autumn migrations of 680 or 1,320 km, 81% (83/103) returned on their own in the next spring to near their place of training. In contrast, none returned of 21 similarly raised geese that were transported south in a closed truck over a route of 680 km. Trumpeter Swans have proven more difficult to train. However, in two experiments in which Trumpeter Swans followed an ultralight for the entire pre-selected route, one of three and two of four returned close to their training area. A stage-by-stage method, in which swans were transported in trucks between stops, flown in the vicinity and penned with a view of the night sky, has shown some promise. So far an established migration route (north and south twice) has been confirmed in only two geese

  10. Emissions versus climate change

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change is likely to offset some of the improvements in air quality expected from reductions in pollutant emissions. A comprehensive analysis of future air quality over North America suggests that, on balance, the air will still be cleaner in coming decades.

  11. Emissions versus climate change

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change is likely to offset some of the improvements in air quality expected from reductions in pollutant emissions. A comprehensive analysis of future air quality over North America suggests that, on balance, the air will still be cleaner in coming decades.

  12. Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors in pilot fatalities of civil aviation accidents, 1990-2001.

    PubMed

    Akin, Ahmet; Chaturvedi, Arvind K

    2003-11-01

    Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) are popularly prescribed for treating depression. With a few exceptions, these psychotropic medications are not approved by aeromedical regulatory authorities for use by aviators. Since SSRIs have the potential for impairing performance and causing drug-drug interactions, the prevalence of SSRIs in pilot fatalities of civil aviation accidents was evaluated. Postmortem samples from pilots involved in fatal civil aircraft accidents are submitted to the Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) for toxicological evaluation. Findings from such evaluations are maintained in the CAMI Toxicology Database. This database was examined for the presence of SSRIs in pilot fatalities of the accidents that occurred during 1990-2001. Out of 4,184 fatal civil aviation accidents from which CAMI received samples, there were 61 accidents in which pilot fatalities had SSRIs. Of these accidents, 56 were of the general aviation category, 2 were of the air taxi and commuter category, 2 were of the agricultural category, and 1 was of the ultralight category. Blood concentrations of SSRIs in the fatalities were 11-1121 ng x ml(-1) for fluoxetine; 47-13102 ng x ml(-1) for sertraline; 68-1441 ng x ml(-1) for paroxetine; and 314-462 ng x ml(-1) for citalopram. In 39 of the 61 pilots, other drugs--for example, analgesics, antihistaminics, benzodiazepines, narcotic analgesics, and/or sympathomimetics--and/or ethanol were also present. As determined by the National Transportation Safety Board, the use of an SSRI [with or without other drug(s) and/or ethanol] has been a contributory factor in at least 9 of the 61 accidents. Numbers of SSRI-involved accidents were low, and blood SSRI concentrations in the associated pilot fatalities ranged from subtherapeutic to toxic levels. However, the interactive effects of other drug(s), ethanol, and/or even altitude hypoxia in producing adverse effects in the pilots cannot be ruled out. Findings from this study

  13. Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions.

    PubMed

    O'Neill, Brian C; Liddle, Brant; Jiang, Leiwen; Smith, Kirk R; Pachauri, Shonali; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina

    2012-07-14

    Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO(2)) have been studied from different perspectives, but most projections of future emissions only partly take demographic influences into account. We review two types of evidence for how CO(2) emissions from the use of fossil fuels are affected by demographic factors such as population growth or decline, ageing, urbanisation, and changes in household size. First, empirical analyses of historical trends tend to show that CO(2) emissions from energy use respond almost proportionately to changes in population size and that ageing and urbanisation have less than proportional but statistically significant effects. Second, scenario analyses show that alternative population growth paths could have substantial effects on global emissions of CO(2) several decades from now, and that ageing and urbanisation can have important effects in particular world regions. These results imply that policies that slow population growth would probably also have climate-related benefits.

  14. Pattern changes in determinants of Chinese emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mi, Zhifu; Meng, Jing; Guan, Dabo; Shan, Yuli; Liu, Zhu; Wang, Yutao; Feng, Kuishuang; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2017-07-01

    The Chinese economy has been recovering slowly from the global financial crisis, but it cannot achieve the same rapid development of the pre-recession period. Instead, the country has entered a new phase of economic development—a ‘new normal’. We use a structural decomposition analysis and environmental input-output analysis to estimate the determinants of China’s carbon emission changes during 2005-2012. China’s imports are linked to a global multi-regional input-output model based on the Global Trade and Analysis Project database to calculate the embodied CO2 emissions in imports. We find that the global financial crisis has affected the drivers of China’s carbon emission growth. From 2007 to 2010, the CO2 emissions induced by China’s exports dropped, whereas emissions induced by capital formation grew rapidly. In the ‘new normal’, the strongest factors that offset CO2 emissions have shifted from efficiency gains to structural upgrading. Efficiency was the strongest factor offsetting China’s CO2 emissions before 2010 but drove a 1.4% increase in emissions in the period 2010-2012. By contrast, production structure and consumption patterns caused a 2.6% and 1.3% decrease, respectively, in China’s carbon emissions from 2010 to 2012. In addition, China tends to shift gradually from an investment to a consumption-driven economy. The proportion of CO2 emissions induced by consumption had a declining trend before 2010 but grew from 28.6%-29.1% during 2010-2012.

  15. Impact of Changes in Barometric Pressure on Landfill Methane Emission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDermitt, Dayle; Xu, Liukang; Lin, Xiaomao; Amen, Jim; Welding, Karla

    2013-04-01

    Landfill methane emissions were measured continuously using the eddy covariance method from June to December 2010. The study site was located at the Bluff Road Landfill in Lincoln, Nebraska USA. Methane emissions strongly depended on changes in barometric pressure; rising barometric pressure suppressed the emission, while falling barometric pressure enhanced the emission. Emission rates were systematically higher in December than during the summer period. Higher methane emission rates were associated with changes in barometric pressure that were larger in magnitude and longer in duration in winter than in summer, and with lower mean temperatures, which appeared to reduce methane oxidation rates. Sharp changes in barometric pressure caused up to 35-fold variation in day-to-day methane emissions. Power spectrum and ogive analysis showed that continuous measurements over a period of at least 10 days were needed in order to capture 90% of total variance in the methane emission time series at our site. Our results suggest that point-in-time methane emission rate measurements taken at monthly or even longer time intervals using techniques such as the tracer plume method, the mass balance method, or the closed-chamber method may be subject to large variations because of the strong dependence of methane emissions on changes in barometric pressure. Estimates of long-term integrated methane emissions from landfills based on such measurements will inevitably yield large uncertainties. Our results demonstrate the value of continuous measurements for quantifying total annual methane emission from a landfill.

  16. Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Isoprene Emission: Diversity Matters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, B.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Lerdau, M.

    2016-12-01

    Many abiotic and biotic factors influence volatile organic compound (VOC) production and emission by plants; for example, climate warming is widely projected to enhance VOC emissions by stimulating their biosynthesis. The species-dependent nature of VOC production by plants indicates that changes in species abundances may play an important role in determining VOC production and emission at the ecosystem scale. To date, however, the role of species abundances in affecting VOC emissions has not been well studied. We examine the role of forest systems as sources of VOC's in terms of how species diversity and abundance influence isoprene emission under climate warming by using an individual-based forest VOC emission model—UVAFME-VOC 1.0—that can explicitly simulate forest compositional and structural change and VOC production/emission at the individual and canopy scales. We simulate isoprene emissions under two warming scenarios (warming by 2 and 4 °C) for temperate deciduous forests of the southeastern United States, where the dominant isoprene-emitting species are oaks (Quercus). The simulations show that, contrary to previous expectations, a warming by 2 °C does not affect isoprene emissions, while a further warming by 4 °C causes a large reduction of isoprene emissions. Interestingly, climate warming can directly enhance isoprene emission and simultaneously indirectly reduce it by lowering the abundance of isoprene-emitting species. Under gradual continuous warming, the indirect effect outweighs the direct effect, thus reducing overall forest isoprene emission. This modelling study shows that climate warming does not necessarily stimulate ecosystem VOC emissions and, more generally, that ecosystem diversity and composition can play a significant role in determining vegetation VOC emission capacity. Future earth system models and climate-chemistry models should better represent species diversity in projecting climate-air quality feedbacks and making

  17. Emission control devices, fuel additive, and fuel composition changes.

    PubMed Central

    Piver, W T

    1977-01-01

    Emission control devices are installed to meet the exhaust standards of the Clean Air Act for carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons, and it is necessary to know, from a public health point of view, how exhaust emissions may be affected by changes in fuel additives and fuel composition. Since these topics are concerned with developing technologies, the available literature on exhaust emission characteristics and the limited information on health effects, is reviewed. PMID:71235

  18. Climate Change Impacts on Biogenic Emissions in the Central Hardwoods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bryan, A. M.; Ferguson, D.; Fraser, J. S.; Guenther, A. B.; Geron, C. D.; Thompson, F.; Steiner, A. L.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is shifting the range of suitable habitat for forests species across the United States. Consequently, the distribution of biogenic precursors to atmospheric pollutants, such as ozone and aerosols, are likely to change as forest composition changes. In this study, we explore the changing temperature and precipitation patterns and the cascading impacts on forest composition and biogenic emissions in the Central Hardwoods Forest Region, covering the United States' mid-section from Oklahoma to Ohio. To accomplish this, we analyzed tree density output from a forest ecosystem model driven by current and future climate conditions, and applied genus-average biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emission potentials to estimate the change in emissions. We then correlated the tree density changes with the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation changes for each species to determine the primary climate driver of the changes in species distribution. Finally, we examined the impact of forest distribution change on biogenic emissions in the region. We identified precipitation as the primary driver of ecosystem change in the region over temperature. Of the 19 tree species explored, about 5 species controlled most of the change in biogenic emissions. We will discuss the specific changes in biogenic VOC distributions we observed and their potential consequences on air quality, including impacts on ozone, aerosols, and the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere.

  19. Attributing land-use change carbon emissions to exported biomass

    SciTech Connect

    Saikku, Laura; Soimakallio, Sampo; Pingoud, Kim

    2012-11-15

    In this study, a simple, transparent and robust method is developed in which land-use change (LUC) emissions are retrospectively attributed to exported biomass products based on the agricultural area occupied for the production. LUC emissions account for approximately one-fifth of current greenhouse gas emissions. Increasing agricultural exports are becoming an important driver of deforestation. Brazil and Indonesia are used as case studies due to their significant deforestation in recent years. According to our study, in 2007, approximately 32% and 15% of the total agricultural land harvested and LUC emissions in Brazil and Indonesia respectively were due to exports. The most important exported single items with regard to deforestation were palm oil for Indonesia and bovine meat for Brazil. To reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions effectively worldwide, leakage of emissions should be avoided. This can be done, for example, by attributing embodied LUC emissions to exported biomass products. With the approach developed in this study, controversial attribution between direct and indirect LUC and amortization of emissions over the product life cycle can be overcome, as the method operates on an average basis and annual level. The approach could be considered in the context of the UNFCCC climate policy instead of, or alongside with, other instruments aimed at reducing deforestation. However, the quality of the data should be improved and some methodological issues, such as the allocation procedure in multiproduct systems and the possible dilution effect through third parties not committed to emission reduction targets, should be considered. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer CO{sub 2} emissions from land use changes are highly important. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Attribution of land use changes for products is difficult. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Simple and robust method is developed to attribute land use change emissions.

  20. Data trimming, nuclear emissions, and climate change.

    PubMed

    Shrader-Frechette, Kristin Sharon

    2009-03-01

    Ethics requires good science. Many scientists, government leaders, and industry representatives support tripling of global-nuclear-energy capacity on the grounds that nuclear fission is "carbon free" and "releases no greenhouse gases." However, such claims are scientifically questionable (and thus likely to lead to ethically questionable energy choices) for at least 3 reasons. (i) They rely on trimming the data on nuclear greenhouse-gas emissions (GHGE), perhaps in part because flawed Kyoto Protocol conventions require no full nuclear-fuel-cycle assessment of carbon content. (ii) They underestimate nuclear-fuel-cycle releases by erroneously assuming that mostly high-grade uranium ore, with much lower emissions, is used. (iii) They inconsistently compare nuclear-related GHGE only to those from fossil fuels, rather than to those from the best GHG-avoiding energy technologies. Once scientists take account of (i)-(iii), it is possible to show that although the nuclear fuel cycle releases (per kWh) much fewer GHG than coal and oil, nevertheless it releases far more GHG than wind and solar-photovoltaic. Although there may be other, ethical, reasons to support nuclear tripling, reducing or avoiding GHG does not appear to be one of them.

  1. Impact of changes in barometric pressure on landfill methane emission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Liukang; Lin, Xiaomao; Amen, Jim; Welding, Karla; McDermitt, Dayle

    2014-07-01

    Landfill methane emissions were measured continuously using the eddy covariance method from June to December 2010. The study site was located at the Bluff Road Landfill in Lincoln, Nebraska, USA. Our results show that landfill methane emissions strongly depended on changes in barometric pressure; rising barometric pressure suppressed the emission, while falling barometric pressure enhanced the emission, a phenomenon called barometric pumping. There was up to a 35-fold variation in day-to-day methane emissions due to changes in barometric pressure. Wavelet coherence analysis revealed a strong spectral coherency between variations of barometric pressure and methane emission at periodicities ranging from 1 day to 8 days. Power spectrum and ogive analysis showed that at least 10 days of continuous measurements was needed in order to capture 90% of the total variance in the methane emission time series at our landfill site. From our results, it is clear that point-in-time measurements taken at monthly or longer time intervals using techniques such as the trace plume method, the mass balance method, or the closed-chamber method will be subject to large variations in measured emission rates because of the barometric pumping phenomenon. Estimates of long-term integrated methane emissions from landfills based on such measurements could yield uncertainties, ranging from 28.8% underestimation to 32.3% overestimation. Our results demonstrate a need for continuous measurements to quantify annual total landfill emissions. This conclusion may apply to the study of methane emissions from wetlands, peatlands, lakes, and other environmental contexts where emissions are from porous media or ebullition. Other implications from the present study for hazard gas monitoring programs are also discussed.

  2. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    SciTech Connect

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  3. Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO 2 emissions

    DOE PAGES

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Matthews, H. Damon

    2017-06-28

    Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Modelmore » Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.« less

  4. Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

    DOE PAGES

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Matthews, H. Damon

    2017-06-28

    Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Modelmore » Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Here, our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.« less

  5. Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.

    2017-07-01

    Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

  6. Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new world.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Kevin; Bows, Alice

    2011-01-13

    The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community's commitment to 'hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius'. Yet its preferred focus on global emission peak dates and longer-term reduction targets, without recourse to cumulative emission budgets, belies seriously the scale and scope of mitigation necessary to meet such a commitment. Moreover, the pivotal importance of emissions from non-Annex 1 nations in shaping available space for Annex 1 emission pathways received, and continues to receive, little attention. Building on previous studies, this paper uses a cumulative emissions framing, broken down to Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, to understand the implications of rapid emission growth in nations such as China and India, for mitigation rates elsewhere. The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2°C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2°C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropriately represents the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy.

  7. ARS NP212 Climate change, soils and emissions program update

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Agricultural Research Service National Program 212 (Climate Change, Soils, and Emissions) has a significant component focused on air quality studies. Presented here for the Agricultural Air Quality Task Force is an update on the status of ARS programs with focus on air quality. National Program ...

  8. Changes in Sea Salt Emissions Enhance ENSO Variability

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Yang; Russell, Lynn M.; Lou, Sijia; Lamjiri, Maryam A.; Liu, Ying; Singh, Balwinder; Ghan, Steven J.

    2016-11-15

    Two 150-year pre-industrial simulations with and without interactive sea salt emissions from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) are performed to quantify the interactions between sea salt emissions and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Variations in sea salt emissions over the tropical Pacific Ocean are affected by changing wind speed associated with ENSO variability. ENSO-induced interannual variations in sea salt emissions result in decreasing (increasing) aerosol optical depth (AOD) by 0.03 over the equatorial central-eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño events compared to those during La Niña events. These changes in AOD further increase (decrease) radiative fluxes into the atmosphere by +0.2 W m-2 (-0.4 W m-2) over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific. Thereby, sea surface temperature increases (decreases) by 0.2–0.4 K over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño compared to La Niña events and enhances ENSO variability by 10%. The increase in ENSO amplitude is a result of systematic heating (cooling) during the warm (cold) phase, of ENSO in the eastern Pacific. Interannual variations in sea salt emissions then produce the anomalous ascent (subsidence) over the equatorial eastern (western) Pacific between El Niño and La Niña events, which is a result of heating anomalies. Due to variations in sea salt emissions, the convective precipitation is enhanced by 0.6–1.2 mm day-1 over the tropical central-eastern Pacific Ocean and weakened by 0.9–1.5 mm day-1 over the Maritime Continent during El Niño compared to La Niña events, enhancing the precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific.

  9. [Spanish Registry on Cardiac Catheterization Interventions. 11th official report of the Working Group on Cardiac Catheterization and Interventional Cardiology of the Spanish Society of Cardiology (years 1990-2001)].

    PubMed

    Hernández, José M; Goicolea, Javier; Durán, Juan M; Augé, José M

    2002-11-01

    The results of the Spanish Registry of the Working Group on cardiac catheterization and Interventional Cardiology of the Spanish Society of Cardiology (years 1990-2001) are presented. One-hundred-and-three centers contributed data, all the cardiac catheterization laboratories in Spain; 97 centers performed mainly adult catheterization and 6 carried out only pediatric procedures. In 2001, 95,430 diagnostic catheterization procedures were performed, with 79,607 coronary angiograms, representing a total increase of 8.4% over 2000. The population-adjusted incidence was 1947 coronary angiograms per 106 inhabitants. Coronary interventions increased by 15.4% compared with 2000, with a total of 31,290 procedures and an incidence of coronary interventions of 761 per 106 inhabitants. Coronary stents were the most frequently used devices with 39,356 implanted in 2001, and increase of 33.4% over 2000. Stenting accounted for 88.2% of procedures. Direct stenting was done in 11,280 procedures (40.9%). IIb-IIIa glycoprotein inhibitors were given in 7,012 procedures (22.4%). Multivessel percutaneous coronary interventions were performed in 8,445 cases (27%) and interventions were performed ad hoc during diagnostic study in 23,144 cases (74 %).A total of 3,845 percutaneous coronary interventions were carried out in patients with acute myocardial infarction, an increase of 22.9% over 2000 and 12.3% of all interventional procedures. Among non-coronary interventions, atrial septal defect closure was performed more often (161 cases, a 60% increase over 2000). Pediatric interventions increased by 15.4% (from 817 to 943 cases).Lastly, we would like to underline the high rate of reporting by laboratories, which allowed the Registry to compile data that are highly representative of hemodynamic interventions in Spain.

  10. Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

    PubMed Central

    Hayhoe, Katharine; Cayan, Daniel; Field, Christopher B.; Frumhoff, Peter C.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Miller, Norman L.; Moser, Susanne C.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Cleland, Elsa E.; Dale, Larry; Drapek, Ray; Hanemann, R. Michael; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Lenihan, James; Lunch, Claire K.; Neilson, Ronald P.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Verville, Julia H.

    2004-01-01

    The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50–75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30–70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75–90%; and snowpack declines 73–90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades. PMID:15314227

  11. Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

    SciTech Connect

    Hayhoe, Katharine; Cayan, Daniel; Field, Christopher B.; Frumhoff, Peter C.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Miller, Norman L.; Moser, Susanne C.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Cleland, Elsa E.; Dale, Larry; Drapek, Ray; Hanemann, R. Michael; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Lenihan, James; Lunch, Claire K.; Neilson, Ronald P.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Verville, Julia H.

    2004-06-01

    The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50-75 percent; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30-70 percent. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75-90 percent; and snowpack declines 73-90 percent, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades.

  12. Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hayhoe, K.; Cayan, D.; Field, C.B.; Frumhoff, P.C.; Maurer, E.P.; Miller, N.L.; Moser, S.C.; Schneider, S.H.; Cahill, K.N.; Cleland, E.E.; Dale, L.; Drapek, R.; Hanemann, R.M.; Kalkstein, L.S.; Lenihan, J.; Lunch, C.K.; Neilson, R.P.; Sheridan, S.C.; Verville, J.H.

    2004-01-01

    The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50-75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30-70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75-90%; and snowpack declines 73-90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades.

  13. Impact of carbonaceous aerosol emissions on regional climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roeckner, E.; Stier, P.; Feichter, J.; Kloster, S.; Esch, M.; Fischer-Bruns, I.

    2006-11-01

    The past and future evolution of atmospheric composition and climate has been simulated with a version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The system consists of the atmosphere, including a detailed representation of tropospheric aerosols, the land surface, and the ocean, including a model of the marine biogeochemistry which interacts with the atmosphere via the dust and sulfur cycles. In addition to the prescribed concentrations of carbon dioxide, ozone and other greenhouse gases, the model is driven by natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol), and by emissions of mineral dust, sea salt, sulfur, black carbon (BC) and particulate organic matter (POM). Transient climate simulations were performed for the twentieth century and extended into the twenty-first century, according to SRES scenario A1B, with two different assumptions on future emissions of carbonaceous aerosols (BC, POM). In the first experiment, BC and POM emissions decrease over Europe and China but increase at lower latitudes (central and South America, Africa, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia). In the second experiment, the BC and POM emissions are frozen at their levels of year 2000. According to these experiments the impact of projected changes in carbonaceaous aerosols on the global mean temperature is negligible, but significant changes are found at low latitudes. This includes a cooling of the surface, enhanced precipitation and runoff, and a wetter surface. These regional changes in surface climate are caused primarily by the atmospheric absorption of sunlight by increasing BC levels and, subsequently, by thermally driven circulations which favour the transport of moisture from the adjacent oceans. The vertical redistribution of solar energy is particularly large during the dry season in central Africa when the anomalous atmospheric heating of up to 60 W m-2 and a corresponding decrease in surface solar radiation leads to a marked surface cooling, reduced

  14. Changes in Carbon Emissions in Colombian Savannas Derived From Recent Land use and Land Cover Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Etter, A.; Sarmiento, A.

    2007-12-01

    The global contribution of carbon emissions from land use dynamics and change to the global carbon (C) cycle is still uncertain, a major concern in global change modeling. Carbon emission from fires in the tropics is significant and represents 9% of the net primary production, and 50% of worldwide C emissions from fires are attributable to savanna fires. Such emissions may vary significantly due to differences in ecosystem types. Most savanna areas are devoted to grazing land uses making methane emissions also important in savanna ecosystems. Land use change driven by intensification of grazing and cropping has become a major factor affecting C emission dynamics from savanna regions. Colombia has some 17 MHa of mesic savannas which have been historically burned. Due to changes in market demands and improved accessibility during the last 20 years, important areas of savannas changed land use from predominantly extensive grazing to crops and intensive grazing systems. This research models and evaluates the impacts of such land use changes on the spatial and temporal burning patterns and C emissions in the Orinoco savannas of Colombia. We address the effects of land use change patterns using remote sensing data from MODIS and Landsat, ecosystem mapping products, and spatial GIS analysis. First we map the expansion of the agricultural frontier from the 1980s-2000s. We then model the changes in land use from the 1980s using a statistical modeling approach to analyze and quantify the impact of accessibility, ecosystem type and land tenure. We calculate the effects on C emissions from fire regimes and other sources of C based on patterns and extent of burned areas in the 2000s for different savanna ecosystem types and land uses. In the Llanos the fire regime exhibits a marked seasonal variability with most fire events occurring during the dry season between December-March. Our analysis shows that fire frequencies vary consistently between 0.6 and 2.8 fires.yr-1 per 2

  15. Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions.

    PubMed

    Solomon, Susan; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Knutti, Reto; Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2009-02-10

    The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450-600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the "dust bowl" era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4-1.0 m if 21st century CO(2) concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6-1.9 m for peak CO(2) concentrations exceeding approximately 1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer.

  16. Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions

    PubMed Central

    Solomon, Susan; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Knutti, Reto; Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2009-01-01

    The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450–600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the “dust bowl” era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4–1.0 m if 21st century CO2 concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6–1.9 m for peak CO2 concentrations exceeding ≈1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer. PMID:19179281

  17. Simulating and Analyzing Long-Term Changes in Emissions ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This presentation covers work performed by the authors to characterize changes in emissions over the 1990 – 2010 time period, quantify the effects of these emission changes on air quality and aerosol/radiation feedbacks using both observations and model simulations, and finally estimate associated changes in PM2.5-related mortality. While the primary geographic scope of this analysis was over the U.S., analysis was also performed over other regions in the northern hemisphere and the presentation includes results from different regions. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

  18. Springtime microwave emissivity changes in the southern Kara Sea

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crane, Robert G.; Anderson, Mark R.

    1994-01-01

    Springtime microwave brightness temperatures over first-year ice are examined for the southern Kara Sea. Snow emissivity changes are revealed by episodic drops in the 37- to 18-GHz brightness temperature gradient ratio measured by the Nimbus 7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer. We suggest that the negative gradient ratios in spring 1982 result from increased scatter at 37 GHz due to the formation of a near-surface hoar layer. This interpretation is supported by the results of a surface radiation balance model that shows the melt signature occurring at below freezing temperatures but under clear-sky conditions with increased solar input to the surface. Published observations from the Greenland ice cap show a surface hoar layer forming under similar atmospheric conditions owing to the increased penetration and absorption of solar radiation just below the surface layer. In spring/early summer 1984 similar gradient ratio signatures occur. They appear to be due to several days of freeze-thaw cycling following the movement of a low-pressure system through the region. These changes in surface emissivity represent the transition from winter to summer conditions (as defined by the microwave response) and are shown to be regional in extent and to vary with the synoptic circulations.

  19. Can we attribute changes in risk to anthropogenic emissions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stone, D. A.; Huggel, C.; Hansen, G.

    2014-12-01

    Losses and damages associated with extreme weather events have been receiving attention lately within the context of anthropogenic climate change, whether in discussions in the public, international negotiations, or legal arenas. Investigations of the role of anthropogenic emissions in this loss and damage have so far taken two forms. On the one hand, so-called "event attribution" studies have examined the role of anthropogenic emissions in the occurrence of the extreme weather event, usually in terms of the chance of the event. On the other hand, a different line of research has been primarily concerned with how losses related to extreme weather events have varied over time, by examining trends in disaster databases. According to these latter studies, the increase in asset values and in exposure are the main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades in many areas.Here we propose a better integration of these existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework, where risk is considered a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event as well as the associated consequences of that event. Attribution of risk thus requires consideration of intensity of the physical event, exposure and value of assets, and vulnerability. Through analysis of trends in these contributors for select case study events, as well as comparative analysis of repeated events, we examine the feasibility of considering the role of anthropogenic emissions against other factors in contributing to long-term trends in risk.

  20. On the proportionality between global temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions during periods of net negative CO2 emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zickfeld, Kirsten; MacDougall, Andrew H.; Damon Matthews, H.

    2016-05-01

    Recent research has demonstrated that global mean surface air warming is approximately proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions. This proportional relationship has received considerable attention, as it allows one to calculate the cumulative CO2 emissions (‘carbon budget’) compatible with temperature targets and is a useful measure for model inter-comparison. Here we use an Earth system model to explore whether this relationship persists during periods of net negative CO2 emissions. Negative CO2 emissions are required in the majority of emissions scenarios limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial, with emissions becoming net negative in the second half of this century in several scenarios. We find that for model simulations with a symmetric 1% per year increase and decrease in atmospheric CO2, the temperature change (ΔT) versus cumulative CO2 emissions (CE) relationship is nonlinear during periods of net negative emissions, owing to the lagged response of the deep ocean to previously increasing atmospheric CO2. When corrected for this lagged response, or if the CO2 decline is applied after the system has equilibrated with the previous CO2 increase, the ΔT versus CE relationship is close to linear during periods of net negative CO2 emissions. A proportionality constant—the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE)- can therefore be calculated for both positive and net negative CO2 emission periods. We find that in simulations with a symmetric 1% per year increase and decrease in atmospheric CO2 the TCRE is larger on the upward than on the downward CO2 trajectory, suggesting that positive CO2 emissions are more effective at warming than negative emissions are at subsequently cooling. We also find that the cooling effectiveness of negative CO2 emissions decreases if applied at higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

  1. Changes in agricultural carbon emissions and factors that influence agricultural carbon emissions based on different stages in Xinjiang, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiong, Chuanhe; Yang, Degang; Xia, Fuqiang; Huo, Jinwei

    2016-11-01

    Xinjiang’s agricultural carbon emissions showed three stages of change, i.e., continued to rise, declined and continued to rise, during 1991–2014. The agriculture belonged to the “low emissions and high efficiency” agriculture category, with a lower agricultural carbon emission intensity. By using the logarithmic mean divisia index decomposition method, agricultural carbon emissions were decomposed into an efficiency factor, a structure factor, an economy factor, and a labour factor. We divided the study period into five stages based on the changes in efficiency factor and economy factor. Xinjiang showed different agricultural carbon emission characteristics at different stages. The degree of impact on agricultural carbon emissions at these stages depended on the combined effect of planting-animal husbandry carbon intensity and agricultural labour productivity. The economy factor was the critical factor to promote the increase in agricultural carbon emissions, while the main inhibiting factor for agricultural carbon emissions was the efficiency factor. The labour factor became more and more obvious in increasing agricultural carbon emissions. Finally, we discuss policy recommendations in terms of the main factors, including the development of agricultural science and technology (S&T), the establishment of three major mechanisms and transfer of rural labour in ethnic areas.

  2. Changes in agricultural carbon emissions and factors that influence agricultural carbon emissions based on different stages in Xinjiang, China

    PubMed Central

    Xiong, Chuanhe; Yang, Degang; Xia, Fuqiang; Huo, Jinwei

    2016-01-01

    Xinjiang’s agricultural carbon emissions showed three stages of change, i.e., continued to rise, declined and continued to rise, during 1991–2014. The agriculture belonged to the “low emissions and high efficiency” agriculture category, with a lower agricultural carbon emission intensity. By using the logarithmic mean divisia index decomposition method, agricultural carbon emissions were decomposed into an efficiency factor, a structure factor, an economy factor, and a labour factor. We divided the study period into five stages based on the changes in efficiency factor and economy factor. Xinjiang showed different agricultural carbon emission characteristics at different stages. The degree of impact on agricultural carbon emissions at these stages depended on the combined effect of planting-animal husbandry carbon intensity and agricultural labour productivity. The economy factor was the critical factor to promote the increase in agricultural carbon emissions, while the main inhibiting factor for agricultural carbon emissions was the efficiency factor. The labour factor became more and more obvious in increasing agricultural carbon emissions. Finally, we discuss policy recommendations in terms of the main factors, including the development of agricultural science and technology (S&T), the establishment of three major mechanisms and transfer of rural labour in ethnic areas. PMID:27830739

  3. Changes in agricultural carbon emissions and factors that influence agricultural carbon emissions based on different stages in Xinjiang, China.

    PubMed

    Xiong, Chuanhe; Yang, Degang; Xia, Fuqiang; Huo, Jinwei

    2016-11-10

    Xinjiang's agricultural carbon emissions showed three stages of change, i.e., continued to rise, declined and continued to rise, during 1991-2014. The agriculture belonged to the "low emissions and high efficiency" agriculture category, with a lower agricultural carbon emission intensity. By using the logarithmic mean divisia index decomposition method, agricultural carbon emissions were decomposed into an efficiency factor, a structure factor, an economy factor, and a labour factor. We divided the study period into five stages based on the changes in efficiency factor and economy factor. Xinjiang showed different agricultural carbon emission characteristics at different stages. The degree of impact on agricultural carbon emissions at these stages depended on the combined effect of planting-animal husbandry carbon intensity and agricultural labour productivity. The economy factor was the critical factor to promote the increase in agricultural carbon emissions, while the main inhibiting factor for agricultural carbon emissions was the efficiency factor. The labour factor became more and more obvious in increasing agricultural carbon emissions. Finally, we discuss policy recommendations in terms of the main factors, including the development of agricultural science and technology (S&T), the establishment of three major mechanisms and transfer of rural labour in ethnic areas.

  4. Probabilistic assessment of "dangerous" climate change and emissions pathways.

    PubMed

    Schneider, Stephen H; Mastrandrea, Michael D

    2005-11-01

    Climate policy decisions driving future greenhouse gas mitigation efforts will strongly influence the success of compliance with Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the prevention of "dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system." However, success will be measured in very different ways by different stakeholders, suggesting a spectrum of possible definitions for DAI. The likelihood of avoiding a given threshold for DAI depends in part on uncertainty in the climate system, notably, the range of uncertainty in climate sensitivity. We combine a set of probabilistic global average temperature metrics for DAI with probability distributions of future climate change produced from a combination of several published climate sensitivity distributions and a range of proposed concentration stabilization profiles differing in both stabilization level and approach trajectory, including overshoot profiles. These analyses present a "likelihood framework" to differentiate future emissions pathways with regard to their potential for preventing DAI. Our analysis of overshoot profiles in comparison with non-overshoot profiles demonstrates that overshoot of a given stabilization target can significantly increase the likelihood of exceeding "dangerous" climate impact thresholds, even though equilibrium warming in our model is identical for non-overshoot concentration stabilization profiles having the same target.

  5. New and Revised Emissions Factors for Flares and New Emissions Factors for Certain Refinery Process Units and Determination for No Changes to VOC Emissions Factors for Tanks and Wastewater Treatment Systems

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    New and Revised Emission Factors for Flares and New Emission Factors for Certain Refinery Process Units and Determination for No Changes to VOC Emission Factors for Tanks and Wastewater Treatment Systems

  6. Changes in distortion product otoacoustic emission components after music exposure.

    PubMed

    Torre, Peter; Grace, Jennifer

    2014-10-01

    Young adults experience some type of recreational noise exposure on a daily basis; this includes using personal music (PM) systems with earphones. In most cases, this exposure is intermittent and the short-term effects of this exposure on the auditory system are becoming better understood. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of one hour of music exposure using a PM system on distortion product otoacoustic emission (DPOAE) absolute levels and generator and characteristic frequency (CF) component levels. Young adults (n = 101) between 18-30 years with normal hearing participated listened to one hour of music through earphones. A second group of young adults (n = 21) served as controls and did not listen to music, but sat in the sound-treated room for one hour. Otoscopy, tympanometry, and a hearing screening (≤20 dB HL at 0.5, 1, 2, and 4 kHz) were completed in a randomly determined test ear. Preferred listening level, in dBA, was obtained and DPOAEs (2f1-f2) were measured between 1 and 6 kHz with stimulus levels fixed at L1,L2 = 55,40 dB SPL. Absolute DPOAE levels, along with generator and CF components levels were measured before and after each participant listened to one hour of music at their preferred level in a quiet setting. For data analyses, absolute DPOAE and generator and CF component levels were collapsed into 1/3rd octave bands centered around 1, 1.5, 2, 3, 4, and 6 kHz. Mean preferred listening level was 57.8 dBA, with males having a higher mean level of 61.1 dBA compared with females who had a mean level of 55.7 dBA. Females and males had negligible mean changes in absolute DPOAE levels at 1, 1.5, and 2 kHz, but males had 0.4-1 dB mean decreases after music at 3, 4, and 6 kHz compared to females, although not statistically significant. For DPOAE generator component data, females had small mean decreases for the two lower frequencies whereas males had mean decreases of 0.4-0.8 dB at 3, 4, and 6 kHz. Because of missing data, analyses of

  7. Air quality in postunification Erfurt, East Germany: associating changes in pollutant concentrations with changes in emissions.

    PubMed

    Ebelt, S; Brauer, M; Cyrys, J; Tuch, T; Kreyling, W G; Wichmann, H E; Heinrich, J

    2001-04-01

    The unification of East and West Germany in 1990 resulted in sharp decreases in emissions of major air pollutants. This change in air quality has provided an opportunity for a natural experiment to evaluate the health impacts of air pollution. We evaluated airborne particle size distribution and gaseous co-pollutant data collected in Erfurt, Germany, throughout the 1990s and assessed the extent to which the observed changes are associated with changes in the two major emission sources: coal burning for power production and residential heating, and motor vehicles. Continuous data for sulfur dioxide, total suspended particulates (TSP), nitric oxide, carbon monoxide, and meteorologic parameters were available for 1990-1999, and size-selective particle number and mass concentration measurements were made during winters of 1991 and 1998. We used hourly profiles of pollutants and linear regression analyses, stratified by year, weekday/weekend, and hour, using NO and SO(2) as markers of traffic- and heating-related combustion sources, respectively, to study the patterns of various particle size fractions. Supplementary data on traffic and heating-related sources were gathered to support hypotheses linking these sources with observed changes in ambient air pollution levels. Substantially decreased (19-91%) concentrations were observed for all pollutants, with the exception of particles in the 0.01-0.03 microm size range (representing the smallest ultrafine particles that were measured). The number concentration for these particles increased by 115% between 1991 and 1998. The ratio of these ultrafine particles to TSP also increased by more than 500%, indicating a dramatic change in the size distribution of airborne particles. Analysis of hourly concentration patterns indicated that in 1991, concentrations of SO(2) and larger particle sizes were related to residential heating with coal. These peaks were no longer evident in 1998 due to decreases in coal consumption and

  8. Air quality in postunification Erfurt, East Germany: associating changes in pollutant concentrations with changes in emissions.

    PubMed Central

    Ebelt, S; Brauer, M; Cyrys, J; Tuch, T; Kreyling, W G; Wichmann, H E; Heinrich, J

    2001-01-01

    The unification of East and West Germany in 1990 resulted in sharp decreases in emissions of major air pollutants. This change in air quality has provided an opportunity for a natural experiment to evaluate the health impacts of air pollution. We evaluated airborne particle size distribution and gaseous co-pollutant data collected in Erfurt, Germany, throughout the 1990s and assessed the extent to which the observed changes are associated with changes in the two major emission sources: coal burning for power production and residential heating, and motor vehicles. Continuous data for sulfur dioxide, total suspended particulates (TSP), nitric oxide, carbon monoxide, and meteorologic parameters were available for 1990-1999, and size-selective particle number and mass concentration measurements were made during winters of 1991 and 1998. We used hourly profiles of pollutants and linear regression analyses, stratified by year, weekday/weekend, and hour, using NO and SO(2) as markers of traffic- and heating-related combustion sources, respectively, to study the patterns of various particle size fractions. Supplementary data on traffic and heating-related sources were gathered to support hypotheses linking these sources with observed changes in ambient air pollution levels. Substantially decreased (19-91%) concentrations were observed for all pollutants, with the exception of particles in the 0.01-0.03 microm size range (representing the smallest ultrafine particles that were measured). The number concentration for these particles increased by 115% between 1991 and 1998. The ratio of these ultrafine particles to TSP also increased by more than 500%, indicating a dramatic change in the size distribution of airborne particles. Analysis of hourly concentration patterns indicated that in 1991, concentrations of SO(2) and larger particle sizes were related to residential heating with coal. These peaks were no longer evident in 1998 due to decreases in coal consumption and

  9. The Mexico greenhouse gases emissions inventory: Results and methodology contributions on agriculture and land use change

    SciTech Connect

    Ruiz-Suarez, L.G.; Gonzalez, E.; Masera, O.

    1996-12-31

    The 1990 Preliminary Greenhouse Gases Emissions Inventory was released in October 1995. It was carried out with sponsorship of the US CSSP and UNEP. It was the product of a partnership between government and academic institutions. Total emissions of CO{sub 2} are 433,721 Gg. Land use change emissions of CO{sub 2} are 111,784 Gg which accounts for 25.8% of the national total. Methane is the second largest greenhouse gas, 3,801 Gg. When its warming potential is accounted for, it is equivalent to 18% of total greenhouse gases emissions. Livestock is the source of 51.3% of these emissions. Methane emissions from cattle and CO{sub 2} emissions from land use change are strongly associated. Besides the results on emission estimates, the inventory work allowed them to use and to improve on IPCC methodologies. Serious miscalculations may result from straightforward application of Tier 1 or even and even of Tier 2 IPPC methodologies for methane emissions from cattle. The need for nation specific forest categories and for more detailed information on the dynamics of land use change was shown. An analysis of emission trends shows the possibility of associated mitigation options for methane and CO{sub 2} from these two sources. A comparative analysis for mitigation potential of methane emissions from large and small scale cattle raising is under way.

  10. Climate change-induced vegetation change as a driver of increased subarctic biogenic volatile organic compound emissions.

    PubMed

    Valolahti, Hanna; Kivimäenpää, Minna; Faubert, Patrick; Michelsen, Anders; Rinnan, Riikka

    2015-09-01

    Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) have been earlier shown to be highly temperature sensitive in subarctic ecosystems. As these ecosystems experience rapidly advancing pronounced climate warming, we aimed to investigate how warming affects the BVOC emissions in the long term (up to 13 treatment years). We also aimed to assess whether the increased litterfall resulting from the vegetation changes in the warming subarctic would affect the emissions. The study was conducted in a field experiment with factorial open-top chamber warming and annual litter addition treatments on subarctic heath in Abisko, northern Sweden. After 11 and 13 treatment years, BVOCs were sampled from plant communities in the experimental plots using a push-pull enclosure technique and collection into adsorbent cartridges during the growing season and analyzed with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Plant species coverage in the plots was analyzed by the point intercept method. Warming by 2 °C caused a 2-fold increase in monoterpene and 5-fold increase in sesquiterpene emissions, averaged over all measurements. When the momentary effect of temperature was diminished by standardization of emissions to a fixed temperature, warming still had a significant effect suggesting that emissions were also indirectly increased. This indirect increase appeared to result from increased plant coverage and changes in vegetation composition. The litter addition treatment also caused significant increases in the emission rates of some BVOC groups, especially when combined with warming. The combined treatment had both the largest vegetation changes and the highest BVOC emissions. The increased emissions under litter addition were probably a result of a changed vegetation composition due to alleviated nutrient limitation and stimulated microbial production of BVOCs. We suggest that the changes in the subarctic vegetation composition induced by climate warming will be the major factor

  11. Contributions of individual countries' emissions to climate change and their uncertainty (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Höhne, N.; Blum, H.; Fuglestvedt, J.; Bieltvedt Skeie, R.; Kurosawa, A.; Hu, G.; Lowe, J.; Gohar, L.; Matthews, B.; Nioac de Salles, A. C.; Ellermann, C.

    2010-12-01

    We have compiled historical greenhouse gas emissions and their uncertainties on country and sector level and assessed their contribution to cumulative emissions and to global average temperature increase in the past and for a the future emission scenario. We find that uncertainty in historical contribution estimates differs between countries due to different shares of greenhouse gases and time development of emissions. Although historical emissions in the distant past are very uncertain, their influence on countries’ or sectors’ contributions to temperature increase is relatively small in most cases, because these results are dominated by recent (high) emissions. For relative contributions to cumulative emissions and temperature rise, the uncertainty introduced by unknown historical emissions is larger than the uncertainty introduced by the use of different climate models. The choice of different parameters in the calculation of relative contributions is most relevant for countries that are different from the world average in greenhouse gas mix and timing of emissions. The choice of the indicator (cumulative GWP weighted emissions or temperature increase) is very important for a few countries (altering contributions up to a factor of 2) and could be considered small for most countries (in the order of 10%). The choice of the year, from which to start accounting for emissions (e.g. 1750 or 1990), is important for many countries, up to a factor of 2.2 and on average of around 1.3. Including or excluding land-use change and forestry or non-CO2 gases changes relative contributions dramatically for a third of the countries (by a factor of 5 to a factor of 90). Industrialised countries started to increase CO2 emissions from energy use much earlier. Developing countries’ emissions from land-use change and forestry as well as of CH4 and N2O were substantial before their emissions from energy use.

  12. Methane emissions from Alaska arctic tundra in response to climatic change

    SciTech Connect

    Livingston, G.P.; Morrissey, L.A.

    1992-03-01

    In situ observations of methane emissions from the Alaska North Slope in 1987 and 1989 provide insight into the environmental interactions regulating methane emissions and into the local- and regional-scale response of the arctic tundra to interannual environmental variability. Inferences regarding climate change are based on in situ measurements of methane emissions, regional landscape characterizations derived from Landsat Multispectral Scanner satellite data, and projected regional scale emissions based on observed interannual temperature differences and simulated changes in the spatial distribution of methane emissions. Results suggest that biogenic methane emissions from arctic tundra will be significantly perturbed by climatic change, leading to warmer summer soil temperatures and to vertical displacement of the regional water table. The effect of increased soil temperatures on methane emissions resulting from anaerobic decomposition in northern wetlands will be to both increase total emissions and to increase interannual and seasonal variability. The magnitude of these effects will be determined by those factors affecting the areal distribution of methane emission rates through regulation of the regional water table. At local scales, the observed 4.7 C increase in mid-summer soil temperatures between 1987 and 1989 resulted in a 3.2-fold increase in the rate of methane emissions from anaerobic soils.

  13. Climate change-induced vegetation change as a driver of increased subarctic biogenic volatile organic compound emissions

    PubMed Central

    Valolahti, Hanna; Kivimäenpää, Minna; Faubert, Patrick; Michelsen, Anders; Rinnan, Riikka

    2015-01-01

    Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) have been earlier shown to be highly temperature sensitive in subarctic ecosystems. As these ecosystems experience rapidly advancing pronounced climate warming, we aimed to investigate how warming affects the BVOC emissions in the long term (up to 13 treatment years). We also aimed to assess whether the increased litterfall resulting from the vegetation changes in the warming subarctic would affect the emissions. The study was conducted in a field experiment with factorial open-top chamber warming and annual litter addition treatments on subarctic heath in Abisko, northern Sweden. After 11 and 13 treatment years, BVOCs were sampled from plant communities in the experimental plots using a push–pull enclosure technique and collection into adsorbent cartridges during the growing season and analyzed with gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. Plant species coverage in the plots was analyzed by the point intercept method. Warming by 2 °C caused a 2-fold increase in monoterpene and 5-fold increase in sesquiterpene emissions, averaged over all measurements. When the momentary effect of temperature was diminished by standardization of emissions to a fixed temperature, warming still had a significant effect suggesting that emissions were also indirectly increased. This indirect increase appeared to result from increased plant coverage and changes in vegetation composition. The litter addition treatment also caused significant increases in the emission rates of some BVOC groups, especially when combined with warming. The combined treatment had both the largest vegetation changes and the highest BVOC emissions. The increased emissions under litter addition were probably a result of a changed vegetation composition due to alleviated nutrient limitation and stimulated microbial production of BVOCs. We suggest that the changes in the subarctic vegetation composition induced by climate warming will be the major factor

  14. Relative changes in CO emissions over megacities based on observations from space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pommier, Matthieu; McLinden, Chris A.; Deeter, Merritt

    2013-07-01

    Urban areas are large sources of several air pollutants, with carbon monoxide (CO) among the largest. Yet measurement from space of their CO emissions remains elusive due to its long lifetime. Here we introduce a new method of estimating relative changes in CO emissions over megacities. A new multichannel Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) CO data product, offering improved sensitivity to the boundary layer, is used to estimate this relative change over eight megacities: Moscow, Paris, Mexico, Tehran, Baghdad, Los Angeles, Sao Paulo, and Delhi. By combining MOPITT observations with wind information from a meteorological reanalysis, changes in the CO upwind-downwind difference are used as a proxy for changes in emissions. Most locations show a clear reduction in CO emission between 2000-2003 and 2004-2008, reaching -43% over Tehran and -47% over Baghdad. There is a contrasted agreement between these results and the MACCity and Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research v4.2 inventories.

  15. Greenhouse gas emissions from soil under changing environmental conditions

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    This manuscript is the Guest Editors’ Introduction to a special issue on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. The papers were assembled following presentation at EuroSoil 2012. Exchange of greenhouse gases between soils and the atmosphere is a natural consequence of several ecosystem process...

  16. U.S. ozone air quality under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions.

    PubMed

    Racherla, Pavan N; Adams, Peter J

    2009-02-01

    We examined future ozone (O3) air quality in the United States (U.S.) under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions worldwide by performing global climate-chemistry simulations, utilizing various combinations of present (1990s) and future (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 2050s) climates, and present and future (2050s; IPCC SRES A2 and B1) anthropogenic emissions. The A2 climate scenario is employed here because it lies at the upper extreme of projected climate change for the 21st century. To examine the sensitivity of U.S. O3 to regional emissions increases (decreases), the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios, which have overall higher and lower O3-precursor emissions for the U.S., respectively, have been chosen. We find that climate change, by itself, significantly worsens the severity and frequency of high-O3 events ("episodes") over most locations in the U.S., with relatively small changes in average O3 air quality. These high-O3 increases due to climate change alone will erode moderately the gains made under a U.S. emissions reduction scenario (e.g., B1). The effect of climate change on high- and average-O3 increases with anthropogenic emissions. Insofar as average O3 air quality is concerned, changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions will play the most important role in attaining (or not) near-term U.S. O3 air quality standards. However, policy makers must plan appropriately for O3 background increases due to projected increases in global CH4 abundance and non-U.S. anthropogenic emissions, as well as potential local enhancements that they could cause. These findings provide strong incentives for more-than-planned emissions reductions at locations that are currently O3-nonattainment.

  17. Assessing Land Management Change Effects on Forest Carbon and Emissions Under Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Law, B. E.

    2014-12-01

    There has been limited focus on fine-scale land management change effects on forest carbon under future environmental conditions (climate, nitrogen deposition, increased atmospheric CO2). Forest management decisions are often made at the landscape to regional levels before analyses have been conducted to determine the potential outcomes and effectiveness of such actions. Scientists need to evaluate plausible land management actions in a timely manner to help shape policy and strategic land management. Issues of interest include species-level adaptation to climate, resilience and vulnerability to mortality within forested landscapes and regions. Efforts are underway to improve land system model simulation of future mortality related to climate, and to develop and evaluate plausible land management options that could help mitigate or avoid future die-offs. Vulnerability to drought-related mortality varies among species and with tree size or age. Predictors of species ability to survive in specific environments are still not resolved. A challenge is limited observations for fine-scale (e.g. 4 km2) modeling, particularly physiological parameters. Uncertainties are primarily associated with future land management and policy decisions. They include the interface with economic factors and with other ecosystem services (biodiversity, water availability, wildlife habitat). The outcomes of future management scenarios should be compared with business-as-usual management under the same environmental conditions to determine the effects of management changes on forest carbon and net emissions to the atmosphere. For example, in the western U.S., land system modeling and life cycle assessment of several management options to reduce impacts of fire reduced long-term forest carbon gain and increased carbon emissions compared with business-as-usual management under future environmental conditions. The enhanced net carbon uptake with climate and reduced fire emissions after thinning

  18. Net radiative forcing due to changes in regional emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naik, Vaishali; Mauzerall, Denise; Horowitz, Larry; Schwarzkopf, M. Daniel; Ramaswamy, V.; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2005-12-01

    The global distribution of tropospheric ozone (O3) depends on the emission of precursors, chemistry, and transport. For small perturbations to emissions, the global radiative forcing resulting from changes in O3 can be expressed as a sum of forcings from emission changes in different regions. Tropospheric O3 is considered in present climate policies only through the inclusion of indirect effect of CH4 on radiative forcing through its impact on O3 concentrations. The short-lived O3 precursors (NOx, CO, and NMHCs) are not directly included in the Kyoto Protocol or any similar climate mitigation agreement. In this study, we quantify the global radiative forcing resulting from a marginal reduction (10%) in anthropogenic emissions of NOx alone from nine geographic regions and a combined marginal reduction in NOx, CO, and NMHCs emissions from three regions. We simulate, using the global chemistry transport model MOZART-2, the change in the distribution of global O3 resulting from these emission reductions. In addition to the short-term reduction in O3, these emission reductions also increase CH4 concentrations (by decreasing OH); this increase in CH4 in turn counteracts part of the initial reduction in O3 concentrations. We calculate the global radiative forcing resulting from the regional emission reductions, accounting for changes in both O3 and CH4. Our results show that changes in O3 production and resulting distribution depend strongly on the geographical location of the reduction in precursor emissions. We find that the global O3 distribution and radiative forcing are most sensitive to changes in precursor emissions from tropical regions and least sensitive to changes from midlatitude and high-latitude regions. Changes in CH4 and O3 concentrations resulting from NOx emission reductions alone produce offsetting changes in radiative forcing, leaving a small positive residual forcing (warming) for all regions. In contrast, for combined reductions of anthropogenic

  19. Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Wobus, Cameron; Flanner, Mark; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Moura, Maria Cecilia P.; Smith, Steven J.

    2016-05-17

    The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols – specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate – depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions from the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. As a result, a properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions – while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO2 mitigation – could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.

  20. Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Wobus, Cameron; Flanner, Mark; Sarofim, Marcus C.; ...

    2016-05-17

    The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols – specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate – depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions frommore » the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. As a result, a properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions – while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO2 mitigation – could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.« less

  1. Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wobus, Cameron; Flanner, Mark; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Moura, Maria Cecilia P.; Smith, Steven J.

    2016-06-01

    The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols -- specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate -- depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions from the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. A properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions -- while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO2 mitigation -- could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.

  2. Development of North American emission inventories for air quality modeling under climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Jung-Hun Woo; Shan He; Efthimios Tagaris; Kuo-Jen Liao; Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon; Praveen Amar; Armistead G. Russell

    2008-11-15

    An approach that integrates the impact of both the current regulations and the longer-term national and global trends is developed to construct an emissions inventory (EI) for North America for the mid-century in support of a regional modeling study of ozone and particulate matter (PM) less than or equal to 2.5 {mu}m (PM2.5). Because the time horizon of such a distant projection is beyond that of EIs used in typical modeling studies, it is necessary to identify a practical approach that allows the emission projections to account for emission controls and climatic and energy-use changes. However, a technical challenge arises because this requires integration of various different types of information with which emissions from human activities are associated. The method developed here is based on data availability, spatiotemporal coverage and resolution, and future-scenario consistency (i.e., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B), and consists of two major steps: (1) near-future EI projection (to the year 2020), and (2) longer-term EI projection (to mid-century). For the United States, the year-2050 emissions for nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), PM2.5, anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and ammonia are projected to change by 55, 55, 30, 40, and 20%, respectively, compared with 2001. NOx and SO{sub 2} Emission changes are very similar in total amount but different in sectoral contribution. The projected emission trends for Canada and Mexico differ considerably. After taking into account the modeled climate changes, biogenic VOC emission increases from three countries overwhelm the decreases in anthropogenic VOC emissions, leading to a net small increase (2%) in overall VOC emissions. 16 refs., 8 figs., 4 tabs.

  3. Effects of climate change on volatile organic compound emissions from soil and litter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gray, C. M.; Fierer, N.

    2012-12-01

    Our knowledge of the variability and magnitude of volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from soil and litter is relatively limited compared to what we know about VOC emissions from terrestrial plants. With climate change expecting to alter plant community composition, nitrogen (N) deposition rates, mean annual temperatures, and precipitation patterns, it is unknown how production and consumption of VOCs from litter and soil will respond. We spent the last four years quantifying VOC emissions from soil and litter, comparing VOC emissions to CO2 emissions, and identifying the biotic and abiotic controls on emission rates with both lab and field experiments using a proton transfer reaction mass spectrometer (PTR-MS). In all studies, methanol was the dominant VOC flux. VOC emissions were not driven by abiotic processes, as microbial sources accounted for 78% to 99% of the total VOC emissions from decomposing litter. Litter chemistry was correlated with the types of VOCs emitted and the net emissions of carbon as VOCs was found to be up to 88% of that emitted as CO2 suggesting that VOCs likely represent an important component of the carbon cycle in many terrestrial systems. Nitrogen additions drastically reduced VOC emissions from litter to near zero, though it is still not understood whether this was due to an increase in consumption or a decrease in production. Finally, field and lab experiments show that temperature and moisture are both important controls of certain VOC emissions from soils, but that the effects of these factors on VOC emissions are not necessarily equivalent to their effects on CO2 emissions. Together, these series of studies are moving us toward a predictive understanding of VOC emissions from soil and litter with the ultimate goal of incorporating these VOC emissions into global models of terrestrial VOC dynamics.

  4. Distinctive timing of US historical surface ozone change determined by climate and anthropogenic emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Yingying; Lin, Jintai

    2016-04-01

    Future changes in surface ozone in a warming climate is an important question for the United States. Analyses of historical ozone change in response to climate change, although useful for validating theories regarding future ozone changes, are complicated by concurrent changes in anthropogenic emissions. Here we find that the individual contributions of climate and precursor emissions to US historical ozone changes over 1990-2014 can be distinguished by contrasting the changes in daytime versus nighttime ozone, based on an analysis of observed and simulated annual mean ozone time series. In particular, climate variability has determined ozone interannual variability, particularly for the daytime ozone, while reductions of anthropogenic NOx emissions have primarily driven an increase in the nighttime ozone. Our results have important implications for future ozone change studies and ozone mitigation.

  5. Effects of changing lawn care practices on N2O emissions: A scenario analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crane, J. W.; Hornberger, G. M.

    2013-12-01

    Lawn soil emissions of N2O are controlled by a variety of factors, among them the varied lawn care practices employed by homeowners or lawn care professionals. Frequency, intensity, and timing of fertilizer application and irrigation all place controls on soil N2O emissions produced as an intermediary of both nitrification and denitrification. We use a process-based biogeochemical model of C and N dynamics to determine how modifying these lawn care practices affect N2O emissions from lawn soils in Nashville, TN. Closed chamber sampling of N2O emissions is used to calibrate the model and provide a base case allowing additional scenarios to be run. We show that seasonal timing of fertilizer application strongly drives the magnitude of N2O emissions, with early summer application effectively doubling these emissions with no changes to other lawn care practices. Decreasing N fertilizer application intensity causes a fairly direct decrease in N2O emissions, while the frequency of fertilizer applications does not have a so clearly direct impact. Irrigation practices also place controls on N2O emissions, as frequent, intense irrigation increases soil moisture, creates anoxic conditions in the soil and results in elevated N2O emissions. These results suggest that understanding how lawn care affects N2O emissions from lawn soils could provide simple guidelines for lawn care that could substantively reduce lawn N2O emissions.

  6. Effects of Changing Emissions on Ozone and Particulates in the Northeastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frost, G. J.; McKeen, S.; Trainer, M.; Ryerson, T.; Holloway, J.; Brock, C.; Middlebrook, A.; Wollny, A.; Matthew, B.; Williams, E.; Lerner, B.; Fortin, T.; Sueper, D.; Parrish, D.; Fehsenfeld, F.; Peckham, S.; Grell, G.; Peltier, R.; Weber, R.; Quinn, P.; Bates, T.

    2004-12-01

    Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from electric power generation have decreased in recent years due to changes in burner technology and fuels used. Mobile NOx emissions assessments are less certain, since they must account for increases in vehicle miles traveled, changes in the proportion of diesel and gasoline vehicles, and more stringent controls on engines and fuels. The impact of these complicated emission changes on a particular region's air quality must be diagnosed by a combination of observation and model simulation. The New England Air Quality Study - Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation 2004 (NEAQS-ITCT 2004) program provides an opportunity to test the effects of changes in emissions of NOx and other precursors on air quality in the northeastern United States. An array of ground, marine, and airborne observation platforms deployed during the study offer checks on emission inventories and air quality model simulations, like those of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with online chemistry (WRF-Chem). Retrospective WRF-Chem runs are carried out with two EPA inventories, one compiled for base year 1999 and an update for 2004 incorporating projected and known changes in emissions during the past 5 years. Differences in model predictions of ozone, particulates, and other tracers using the two inventories are investigated. The inventories themselves and the model simulations are compared with the extensive observations available during NEAQS-ITCT 2004. Preliminary insights regarding the sensitivity of the model to NOx emission changes are discussed.

  7. Climate change impact of livestock CH4 emission in India: Global temperature change potential (GTP) and surface temperature response.

    PubMed

    Kumari, Shilpi; Hiloidhari, Moonmoon; Kumari, Nisha; Naik, S N; Dahiya, R P

    2017-09-12

    Two climate metrics, Global surface Temperature Change Potential (GTP) and the Absolute GTP (AGTP) are used for studying the global surface temperature impact of CH4 emission from livestock in India. The impact on global surface temperature is estimated for 20 and 100 year time frames due to CH4 emission. The results show that the CH4 emission from livestock, worked out to 15.3 Tg in 2012. In terms of climate metrics GTP of livestock-related CH4 emission in India in 2012 were 1030 Tg CO2e (GTP20) and 62 Tg CO2e (GTP100) at the 20 and 100 year time horizon, respectively. The study also illustrates that livestock-related CH4 emissions in India can cause a surface temperature increase of up to 0.7mK and 0.036mK over the 20 and 100 year time periods, respectively. The surface temperature response to a year of Indian livestock emission peaks at 0.9mK in the year 2021 (9 years after the time of emission). The AGTP gives important information in terms of temperature change due to annual CH4 emissions, which is useful when comparing policies that address multiple gases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. 40 CFR Appendix C to Part 60 - Determination of Emission Rate Change

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... determine whether a physical or operational change to an existing facility resulted in an increase in the....2Calculate the arithmetic mean emission rate, E, for each set of data using Equation 1. EC01JN92.292 Where: E... difference between E b and E a is significant, and an increase in emission rate to the atmosphere has...

  9. Tropospheric Ozone Change from 1980 to 2010 Dominated by Equatorward Redistribution of Emissions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhang, Yuqiang; Cooper, Owen R.; Gaudel, Audrey; Thompson, Anne M.; Nedelec, Philippe; Ogino, Shin-Ya; West, J. Jason

    2016-01-01

    Ozone is an important air pollutant at the surface, and the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the troposphere. Since 1980, anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors methane, non-methane volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides (NOx) have shifted from developed to developing regions. Emissions have thereby been redistributed equatorwards, where they are expected to have a stronger effect on the tropospheric ozone burden due to greater convection, reaction rates and NOx sensitivity. Here we use a global chemical transport model to simulate changes in tropospheric ozone concentrations from 1980 to 2010, and to separate the influences of changes in the spatial distribution of global anthropogenic emissions of short-lived pollutants, the magnitude of these emissions, and the global atmospheric methane concentration. We estimate that the increase in ozone burden due to the spatial distribution change slightly exceeds the combined influences of the increased emission magnitude and global methane. Emission increases in Southeast, East and South Asia may be most important for the ozone change, supported by an analysis of statistically significant increases in observed ozone above these regions. The spatial distribution of emissions dominates global tropospheric ozone, suggesting that the future ozone burden will be determined mainly by emissions from low latitudes.

  10. Tropospheric ozone change from 1980 to 2010 dominated by equatorward redistribution of emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yuqiang; Cooper, Owen R.; Gaudel, Audrey; Thompson, Anne M.; Nédélec, Philippe; Ogino, Shin-Ya; West, J. Jason

    2016-12-01

    Ozone is an important air pollutant at the surface, and the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the troposphere. Since 1980, anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors--methane, non-methane volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides (NOx)--have shifted from developed to developing regions. Emissions have thereby been redistributed equatorwards, where they are expected to have a stronger effect on the tropospheric ozone burden due to greater convection, reaction rates and NOx sensitivity. Here we use a global chemical transport model to simulate changes in tropospheric ozone concentrations from 1980 to 2010, and to separate the influences of changes in the spatial distribution of global anthropogenic emissions of short-lived pollutants, the magnitude of these emissions, and the global atmospheric methane concentration. We estimate that the increase in ozone burden due to the spatial distribution change slightly exceeds the combined influences of the increased emission magnitude and global methane. Emission increases in Southeast, East and South Asia may be most important for the ozone change, supported by an analysis of statistically significant increases in observed ozone above these regions. The spatial distribution of emissions dominates global tropospheric ozone, suggesting that the future ozone burden will be determined mainly by emissions from low latitudes.

  11. Trends in future N₂O emissions due to land use change.

    PubMed

    Nol, Linda; Verburg, Peter H; Moors, Eddy J

    2012-02-01

    Better insight in the possible range of future N₂O emissions can help to construct mitigation and adaptation strategies and to adapt land use planning and management to climate objectives. The Dutch fen meadow landscape is a hotspot of N₂O emission due to high nitrogen inputs combined with moist peat soils due to land use change. Socio-economic developments in the area are expected to have major impacts on N₂O emission. The goals of this study are to estimate changes in N₂O emissions for the period 2006-2040 under three different scenarios for the Dutch fen meadow landscape (rural production, rural fragmentation, and rural multifunctionality) and to quantify the share of different emission sources. Three scenarios were constructed and quantified based on the Story-And-Simulation approach. The rural production and the rural fragmentation scenarios are characterized by globalization and a market-oriented economy; in the rural production scenario dairy farming has a strong competitive position in the study region, while under the rural fragmentation scenario agriculture is declining. Under the rural multifunctionality scenario, the global context is characterized by regionalization and stronger regulation toward environmental issues. The N₂O emission decreased between 2006 and 2040 under all scenarios. Under the rural production scenario, the N₂O emission decreased by 7%. Due to measures to limit peat mineralization and policies to reduce agricultural emissions, the rural multifunctionality scenario showed the largest decrease in N₂O emissions (44%). Under the rural fragmentation scenario, in which the dairy farming sector is diminished, the emission decreased by 33%. Compared to other uncertainties involved in N₂O emission estimates, the uncertainty due to possible future land use change is relatively large and assuming a constant emission with time is therefore not appropriate. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Global isoprene and monoterpene emissions under changing climate, vegetation, CO2 and land use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hantson, Stijn; Knorr, Wolfgang; Schurgers, Guy; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Arneth, Almut

    2017-04-01

    Plants emit large quantities of isoprene and monoterpenes, the main components of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. BVOCs have an important impact on the atmospheric composition of methane, and of short-lived radiative forcing agents (e.g. ozone, aerosols etc.). It is therefore necessary to know how isoprene and monoterpene emissions have changed over the past and how future changes in climate, land-use and other factors will impact them. Here we present emission estimates of isoprene and monoterpenes over the period 1901-2 100 based on the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, including the effects of all known important drivers. We find that both isoprene and monoterpene emissions at the beginning of the 20th century were higher than at present. While anthropogenic land-use change largely drives the global decreasing trend for isoprene over the 20th century, changes in natural vegetation composition caused a decreasing trend for monoterpene emissions. Future global isoprene and monoterpene emissions depend strongly on the climate and land-use scenarios considered. Over the 21st century, global isoprene emissions are simulated to either remain stable (RCP 4.5), or decrease further (RCP 8.5), with important differences depending on the underlying land-use scenario. Future monoterpene emissions are expected to continue their present decreasing trend for all scenarios, possibly stabilizing from 2050 onwards (RCP 4.5). These results demonstrate the importance to take both natural vegetation dynamics and anthropogenic changes in land-use into account when estimating past and future BVOC emissions. They also indicate that a future global increase in BVOC emissions is improbable.

  13. Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Kevin; Bows, Alice

    2008-11-13

    The 2007 Bali conference heard repeated calls for reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 50 per cent by 2050 to avoid exceeding the 2 degrees C threshold. While such endpoint targets dominate the policy agenda, they do not, in isolation, have a scientific basis and are likely to lead to dangerously misguided policies. To be scientifically credible, policy must be informed by an understanding of cumulative emissions and associated emission pathways. This analysis considers the implications of the 2 degrees C threshold and a range of post-peak emission reduction rates for global emission pathways and cumulative emission budgets. The paper examines whether empirical estimates of greenhouse gas emissions between 2000 and 2008, a period typically modelled within scenario studies, combined with short-term extrapolations of current emissions trends, significantly constrains the 2000-2100 emission pathways. The paper concludes that it is increasingly unlikely any global agreement will deliver the radical reversal in emission trends required for stabilization at 450 ppmv carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). Similarly, the current framing of climate change cannot be reconciled with the rates of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550 ppmv CO2e and even an optimistic interpretation suggests stabilization much below 650 ppmv CO2e is improbable.

  14. ABRUPT LONGITUDINAL MAGNETIC FIELD CHANGES AND ULTRAVIOLET EMISSIONS ACCOMPANYING SOLAR FLARES

    SciTech Connect

    Johnstone, B. M.; Petrie, G. J. D.; Sudol, J. J.

    2012-11-20

    We have used Transition Region and Coronal Explorer 1600 A images and Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) magnetograms to compare ultraviolet (UV) emissions from the chromosphere to longitudinal magnetic field changes in the photosphere during four X-class solar flares. An abrupt, significant, and persistent change in the magnetic field occurred across more than 10 pixels in the GONG magnetograms for each flare. These magnetic changes lagged the GOES flare start times in all cases, showing that they were consequences and not causes of the flares. Ultraviolet emissions were spatially coincident with the field changes. The UV emissions tended to lag the GOES start times for the flares and led the changes in the magnetic field in all pixels except one. The UV emissions led the photospheric field changes by 4 minutes on average with the longest lead being 9 minutes; however, the UV emissions continued for tens of minutes, and more than an hour in some cases, after the field changes were complete. The observations are consistent with the picture in which an Alfven wave from the field reconnection site in the corona propagates field changes outward in all directions near the onset of the impulsive phase, including downward through the chromosphere and into the photosphere, causing the photospheric field changes, whereas the chromosphere emits in the UV in the form of flare kernels, ribbons, and sequential chromospheric brightenings during all phases of the flare.

  15. Sub-surface soil carbon changes affects biofuel greenhouse gas emissions

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Changes in direct soil organic carbon (SOC) can have a major impact on overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from biofuels when using life-cycle assessment (LCA). Estimated changes in SOC, when accounted for in an LCA, are typically derived from near-surface soil depths (<30 cm). Changes in subsurf...

  16. Chemical changes in secondary electron emission during oxidation of nickel /100/ and /111/ crystal surfaces

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holloway, P. H.; Hudson, J. B.

    1975-01-01

    Changes in the secondary electron spectra (which include chemical shifts of Auger transitions) between 0-70 eV during the oxidation of both (100) and (111) nickel surfaces are reported. The reaction sequence between oxygen and nickel is also briefly described. Emission rate changes are correlated with changes in the work function of the solid.

  17. Estimation of multiyear changes in nitrogen oxide emissions in megalopolises from satellite measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konovalov, I. B.

    2011-04-01

    The influence that megalopolises have on the atmospheric composition on regional and global scales is the subject of intense investigations; however, data on the emissions of pollutants used for such investigations are often insufficiently reliable. In this work the possibilities for diagnosing long-term changes in nitrogen oxide emissions in megalopolises are investigated based on a combined use of data from satellite measurements and modeling of the tropospheric nitrogen dioxide content. Primary emphasis is placed on analyzing possible situations when emission changes are of a nonlinear character. The proposed methodology includes an original method for the nonlinear approximation of changes in a physical quantity from a noised time series of its measurements. Changes in NO x emissions are investigated in 12 megalopolises of Europe and the Middle East in the period from 1996 to 2008. Statistically significant changes in NO x emissions are detected in five megalopolises (Baghdad, Madrid, Milan, Moscow, and Paris). By using three megalopolises (Madrid, Milan, and Paris) as an example, it is shown that a nonlinear approximation of NO x emission changes agrees better with independent ground-based measurements than an analogous linear approximation.

  18. What determines the magnitude of climate change commitment after cessation of emissions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehlert, D.; Zickfeld, K.

    2013-12-01

    Previous studies show that climate change persists for several centuries after CO2 emissions cease. For example, global mean warming stays approximately constant after CO2 emissions stop, i.e., CO2 forcing levels decline. Thermosteric sea level rise continues after emissions stop. The question thus arises: what determines the magnitude of these committed climate changes? This study focuses on the timing at which emissions cease. One would assume that given a constant forcing level, the earlier emissions cease, the further the system is away from equilibrium, i.e., the larger the expected residual change. We will investigate this question by using a climate model of intermediate complexity, version 2.9 of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (Uvic ESCM 2.9). The simulations follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to the year 2300 for CO2 and non-CO2 GHG forcings. After 2300 the CO2 concentrations are set at a constant level. Starting from different points along the RCP trajectories CO2 emissions are set to preindustrial levels and the atmospheric CO2 concentrations are allowed to evolve freely. By comparing these different simulations we will gain improved understanding of the role of the forcing level and the timing of emission cessation for climate change commitment.

  19. The evolution of shipping emissions and the costs of regulation changes in the northern EU area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johansson, L.; Jalkanen, J.-P.; Kalli, J.; Kukkonen, J.

    2013-11-01

    An extensive inventory of marine exhaust emissions is presented in the northern European emission control area (ECA) in 2009 and 2011. The emissions of SOx, NOx, CO2, CO and PM2.5 were evaluated using the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM). We have combined the information on individual vessel characteristics and position reports generated by the automatic identification system (AIS). The emission limitations from 2009 to 2011 have had a significant impact on reducing the emissions of both SOx and PM2.5. The predicted emissions of SOx originated from IMO (International Maritime Organization)-registered marine traffic have been reduced by 29%, from 320 kt to 231 kt, in the ECA from 2009 to 2011. The corresponding predicted reduction of PM2.5 emissions was 17%, from 72 kt to 61 kt. The highest CO2 and PM2.5 emissions in 2011 were located in the vicinity of the coast of the Netherlands, in the English Channel, near the south-eastern UK and along the busiest shipping lines in the Danish Straits and the Baltic Sea. The changes of emissions and the financial costs caused by various regulative actions since 2005 were also evaluated, based on the increased direct fuel costs. We also simulated the effects and direct costs associated with the forthcoming switch to low-sulfur distillate fuels in 2015. According to the projections for the future, there will be a reduction of 87% in SOx emissions and a reduction of 48% in PM2.5 emissions in 2015, compared with the corresponding shipping emissions in 2011 in the ECA. The corresponding relative increase in fuel costs for all IMO-registered shipping varied between 13% and 69%, depending on the development of the prices of fuels and the use of the sulfur scrubber equipment.

  20. Development of North American emission inventories for air quality modeling under climate change.

    PubMed

    Woo, Jung-Hun; He, Shan; Tagaris, Efthimios; Liao, Kuo-Jen; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Amar, Praveen; Russell, Armistead G

    2008-11-01

    An assessment of how future climate change will impact regional air quality requires projecting emissions many decades into the future in a consistent manner. An approach that integrates the impact of both the current regulations and the longer-term national and global trends is developed to construct an emissions inventory (EI) for North America for the mid-century in support of a regional modeling study of ozone and particulate matter (PM) less than or equal to 2.5 microm (PM2.5). Because the time horizon of such a distant projection is beyond that of EIs used in typical modeling studies, it is necessary to identify a practical approach that allows the emission projections to account for emission controls and climatic and energy-use changes. However, a technical challenge arises because this requires integration of various different types of information with which emissions from human activities are associated. Often, emission information in global models has less detail and uses coarser spatiotemporal resolution. The method developed here is based on data availability, spatiotemporal coverage and resolution, and future-scenario consistency (i.e., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [IPCC SRES] A1B), and consists of two major steps: (1) near-future EI projection (to the year 2020), and (2) longer-term EI projection (to mid-century). The first step is based closely on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Clean Air Interstate Rule EI, the Environment Canada EI, as well estimates of Mexico's EI; whereas the second step follows approaches proposed by the EI from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE), developed by Netherlands's National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). For the United States, the year-2050 emissions for nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), PM2.5, anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and ammonia are projected to change by -55, -55, -30, -40

  1. Response of winter fine particulate matter concentrations to emission and meteorology changes in North China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Meng; Carmichael, Gregory R.; Saide, Pablo E.; Lu, Zifeng; Yu, Man; Streets, David G.; Wang, Zifa

    2016-09-01

    The winter haze is a growing problem in North China, but the causes are not well understood. The chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) was applied in North China to examine how PM2.5 concentrations change in response to changes in emissions (sulfur dioxide (SO2), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), ammonia (NH3), and nitrogen oxides (NOx)), as well as meteorology (temperature, relative humidity (RH), and wind speeds) changes in winter. From 1960 to 2010, the dramatic changes in emissions lead to +260 % increases in sulfate, +320 % increases in nitrate, +300 % increases in ammonium, +160 % increases in BC, and +50 % increases in OC. The responses of PM2.5 to individual emission species indicate that the simultaneous increases in SO2, NH3, and NOx emissions dominated the increases in PM2.5 concentrations. PM2.5 shows more notable increases in response to changes in SO2 and NH3 as compared to increases in response to changes in NOx emissions. In addition, OC also accounts for a large fraction in PM2.5 changes. These results provide some implications for haze pollution control. The responses of PM2.5 concentrations to temperature increases are dominated by changes in wind fields and mixing heights. PM2.5 shows relatively smaller changes in response to temperature increases and RH decreases compared to changes in response to changes in wind speed and aerosol feedbacks. From 1960 to 2010, aerosol feedbacks have been significantly enhanced due to higher aerosol loadings. The discussions in this study indicate that dramatic changes in emissions are the main cause of increasing haze events in North China, and long-term trends in atmospheric circulations may be another important cause since PM2.5 is shown to be substantially affected by wind speed and aerosol feedbacks. More studies are necessary to get a better understanding of the aerosol-circulation interactions.

  2. Global mismatch between greenhouse gas emissions and the burden of climate change.

    PubMed

    Althor, Glenn; Watson, James E M; Fuller, Richard A

    2016-02-05

    Countries export much of the harm created by their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because the Earth's atmosphere intermixes globally. Yet, the extent to which this leads to inequity between GHG emitters and those impacted by the resulting climate change depends on the distribution of climate vulnerability. Here, we determine empirically the relationship between countries' GHG emissions and their vulnerability to negative effects of climate change. In line with the results of other studies, we find an enormous global inequality where 20 of the 36 highest emitting countries are among the least vulnerable to negative impacts of future climate change. Conversely, 11 of the 17 countries with low or moderate GHG emissions, are acutely vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change. In 2010, only 28 (16%) countries had an equitable balance between emissions and vulnerability. Moreover, future emissions scenarios show that this inequality will significantly worsen by 2030. Many countries are manifestly free riders causing others to bear a climate change burden, which acts as a disincentive for them to mitigate their emissions. It is time that this persistent and worsening climate inequity is resolved, and for the largest emitting countries to act on their commitment of common but differentiated responsibilities.

  3. Global mismatch between greenhouse gas emissions and the burden of climate change

    PubMed Central

    Althor, Glenn; Watson, James E. M.; Fuller, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Countries export much of the harm created by their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because the Earth’s atmosphere intermixes globally. Yet, the extent to which this leads to inequity between GHG emitters and those impacted by the resulting climate change depends on the distribution of climate vulnerability. Here, we determine empirically the relationship between countries’ GHG emissions and their vulnerability to negative effects of climate change. In line with the results of other studies, we find an enormous global inequality where 20 of the 36 highest emitting countries are among the least vulnerable to negative impacts of future climate change. Conversely, 11 of the 17 countries with low or moderate GHG emissions, are acutely vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change. In 2010, only 28 (16%) countries had an equitable balance between emissions and vulnerability. Moreover, future emissions scenarios show that this inequality will significantly worsen by 2030. Many countries are manifestly free riders causing others to bear a climate change burden, which acts as a disincentive for them to mitigate their emissions. It is time that this persistent and worsening climate inequity is resolved, and for the largest emitting countries to act on their commitment of common but differentiated responsibilities. PMID:26848052

  4. Future land-use change emissions: CO2, BVOC and wildfire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arneth, A.; Knorr, W.; Hantson, S.; Anthoni, P.; Szogs, S.

    2015-12-01

    Historical land-use (LUC) change is known to have been a large source of CO2 emissions, mostly from deforestation: the equivalent of around 1/3 of today's CO2 in the atmosphere arises from LUC. And LUC will continue into the future, although the expected area change, the type of LUC (deforestation vs. afforestation/reforestation) and regions where the LUC will take place will differ greatly, depending on the future scenario. But LUC is not only of importance for projecting emissions of CO2. It also affects greatly emissions of biogenic volatile organic carbon, and from wildfires - all of which are important for the quantification of precursor substances relevant to air quality, and interactions with climate change. We show here that accounting for future socio-economic developments and LUC scenarios has the potential to override climate change and effects of CO2 fertilisation on fire and BVOC emission, regionally and in some cases also globally. Simulation experiments with the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS will be performed, covering the 20th and 21st century, and assessing a rage of future population growth, LUC and climate change scenarios. For wildfire emissions, we find that burned area and emissions depend greatly on the type of population growth scenario, and on the distribution of urban vs rural population. BVOC emissions depend greatly on the amount and location of deforestation vs the region and magnitude of forest expansion in response to warming, such as through expansion of vegetation in the northern hemisphere, and via reforestation/afforestation. LUC so far has not been given sufficient attention for simulations of future air quality-climate interactions. In terms of terrestrial precursor emissions of atmospherically reactive substances our simulations clearly demonstrate the importance of including LUC in combination with vegetation that responds dynamically to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 levels.

  5. Changes in motor vehicle emissions on diurnal to decadal time scales and effects on atmospheric composition.

    PubMed

    Harley, Robert A; Marr, Linsey C; Lehner, Jaime K; Giddings, Sarah N

    2005-07-15

    Emissions from gasoline and diesel engines vary on time scales including diurnal, weekly, and decadal. Temporal patterns differ for these two engine types that are used predominantly for passenger travel and goods movement, respectively. Rapid growth in diesel fuel use and decreasing NOx emission rates from gasoline engines have led to altered emission profiles. During the 1990s, on-road use of diesel fuel grew 3 times faster than gasoline. Over the same time period, the NOx emission rate from gasoline engines in California was reduced by a factor of approximately 2, while the NOx emission rate from diesel engines decreased only slightly. Diesel engines therefore grew in both relative and absolute terms as a source of NOx, accounting for about half of all on-road NO, emissions as of 2000. Diesel truck emissions decrease by 60-80% on weekends. Counterintuitive responses to these emission changes are seen in measured concentrations of ozone. In contrast, elemental carbon (EC) concentrations decrease on weekends as expected. Weekly and diurnal patterns in diesel truck activity contribute to variability in the ratio of organic carbon (OC) to EC in primary source emissions, and this could be a source of bias in assessments of the importance of secondary organic aerosol.

  6. Changes in Emissions in Megacities during the Past Decades: Impact on the Distribution of Atmospheric Compounds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doumbia, E. H. T.; Granier, C.; Sindelarova, K.; Tilmes, S.; Bouarar, I.; Richter, A.; Hilboll, A.; Conley, A. J.; Garcia, R. R.; Kinnison, D. E.; Lamarque, J. F.; Marsh, D. R.; Smith, A. K.; Neely, R.; Turnock, S.

    2015-12-01

    The surface emissions of atmospheric compounds have changed dramatically in many world regions during the past decades. We will evaluate these changes through an analysis of different global and regional anthropogenic emissions inventories, focusing on several megacities. In European and North American megacities, surface emissions of chemical compounds have decreased significantly, while they have increased in many other megacities in different parts of the world. Simulations performed with the CAM4-Chem Community Earth System Model will be used to evaluate the impact of the changes in emissions on the distributions chemical compounds in different megacities. These simulations were performed as part of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), a project of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project (IGAC). The analysis of the simulations will focus more particularly on nitrogen dioxide: this species has been observed by satellite measurements since the late 1990s. Model results and satellite observations will be analysed for everal megacities in Europe and North America, where strong emission controls have been implemented. Other megacities in China, India, Africa and South America, where few emission regulations have been enforced have seen large increases in their emissions: we will evaluate the consistency of the model simulations and satellite observations of NO2 in these cities.

  7. Climate change alters leaf anatomy, but has no effects on volatile emissions from Arctic plants.

    PubMed

    Schollert, Michelle; Kivimäenpää, Minna; Valolahti, Hanna M; Rinnan, Riikka

    2015-10-01

    Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions are expected to change substantially because of the rapid advancement of climate change in the Arctic. BVOC emission changes can feed back both positively and negatively on climate warming. We investigated the effects of elevated temperature and shading on BVOC emissions from arctic plant species Empetrum hermaphroditum, Cassiope tetragona, Betula nana and Salix arctica. Measurements were performed in situ in long-term field experiments in subarctic and high Arctic using a dynamic enclosure system and collection of BVOCs into adsorbent cartridges analysed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. In order to assess whether the treatments had resulted in anatomical adaptations, we additionally examined leaf anatomy using light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. Against expectations based on the known temperature and light-dependency of BVOC emissions, the emissions were barely affected by the treatments. In contrast, leaf anatomy of the studied plants was significantly altered in response to the treatments, and these responses appear to differ from species found at lower latitudes. We suggest that leaf anatomical acclimation may partially explain the lacking treatment effects on BVOC emissions at plant shoot-level. However, more studies are needed to unravel why BVOC emission responses in arctic plants differ from temperate species.

  8. [China's rice field greenhouse gas emission under climate change based on DNDC model simulation].

    PubMed

    Tian, Zhan; Niu, Yi-long; Sun, Lai-xiang; Li, Chang-sheng; Liu, Chun-jiang; Fan, Dong-li

    2015-03-01

    In contrast to a large body of literature assessing the impact of agriculture greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on climate change, there is a lack of research examining the impact of climate change on agricultural GHG emissions. This study employed the DNDC v9.5, a state-of-art biogeochemical model, to simulate greenhouse gas emissions in China' s rice-growing fields during 1971-2010. The results showed that owing to temperature rising (on average 0.49 °C higher in the second 20 years than in the first 20 year) and precipitation increase (11 mm more in the second 20 years than in the first 20 years) during the rice growing season, CH4 and N2O emissions in paddy field increased by 0.25 kg C . hm-2 and 0.25 kg N . hm-2, respectively. The rising temperature accelerated CH4 emission and N2O emission increased with precipitation. These results indicated that climate change exerted impact on the mechanism of GHG emissions in paddy field.

  9. The impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China during 1978-2008

    SciTech Connect

    Zhu Qin Peng Xizhe

    2012-09-15

    This study examines the impacts of population size, population structure, and consumption level on carbon emissions in China from 1978 to 2008. To this end, we expanded the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model and used the ridge regression method, which overcomes the negative influences of multicollinearity among independent variables under acceptable bias. Results reveal that changes in consumption level and population structure were the major impact factors, not changes in population size. Consumption level and carbon emissions were highly correlated. In terms of population structure, urbanization, population age, and household size had distinct effects on carbon emissions. Urbanization increased carbon emissions, while the effect of age acted primarily through the expansion of the labor force and consequent overall economic growth. Shrinking household size increased residential consumption, resulting in higher carbon emissions. Households, rather than individuals, are a more reasonable explanation for the demographic impact on carbon emissions. Potential social policies for low carbon development are also discussed. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We examine the impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We expand the STIRPAT model by containing population structure factors in the model. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure includes age structure, urbanization level, and household size. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The ridge regression method is used to estimate the model with multicollinearity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure plays a more important role compared with the population size.

  10. Halogenated compounds and climate change: future emission levels and reduction costs.

    PubMed

    Harnisch, Jochen; de Jager, David; Gale, John; Stobbel, Oliver

    2002-01-01

    This work assesses the contribution to climate change resulting from emissions of the group of halogenated greenhouse gases. A bottom-up emission model covering 22 technological sectors in four major regions is described. Emission estimates for 1996 and projection for 2010 and 2020 are presented. The costs for deep cuts into projected emission levels are calculated. The substances covered by this study have contributed emissions of 1100 +/- 800 MT CO2 equivalents per year in 1996. In terms of their relative contribution to emissions of CO2 equivalents, this corresponds to 3 +/- 2% of global emissions of all anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The wide range of uncertainty is due to the poorly quantified net global warming potential of the ozone depleting substances, which have an indirect cooling effect on climate through the destruction of stratospheric ozone. For annual emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (which are regulated under the Kyoto Protocol and for which global warming potentials are well defined), the relative contribution is projected to increase to 2% (600 MT CO2 eq.) of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2010. This trend is expected to continue, emissions are projected to grow to a contribution of roughly 3% (870 MT CO2 eq.) in 2020 compared to 0.9% (300 MT CO2 eq.) in 1996. For HFCs, PFCs and SF6, this study identifies global emission reduction potentials of 260 MT CO2 eq. per year in 2010 and 640 MT CO2 eq. per year in 2020 at below US$ 50 per ton. These values correspond to roughly 40% and 75% of projected emissions in 2010 and 2020, respectively.

  11. Changes in otoacoustic emissions during selective auditory and visual attention

    PubMed Central

    Walsh, Kyle P.; Pasanen, Edward G.; McFadden, Dennis

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated that the otoacoustic emissions (OAEs) measured during behavioral tasks can have different magnitudes when subjects are attending selectively or not attending. The implication is that the cognitive and perceptual demands of a task can affect the first neural stage of auditory processing—the sensory receptors themselves. However, the directions of the reported attentional effects have been inconsistent, the magnitudes of the observed differences typically have been small, and comparisons across studies have been made difficult by significant procedural differences. In this study, a nonlinear version of the stimulus-frequency OAE (SFOAE), called the nSFOAE, was used to measure cochlear responses from human subjects while they simultaneously performed behavioral tasks requiring selective auditory attention (dichotic or diotic listening), selective visual attention, or relative inattention. Within subjects, the differences in nSFOAE magnitude between inattention and attention conditions were about 2–3 dB for both auditory and visual modalities, and the effect sizes for the differences typically were large for both nSFOAE magnitude and phase. These results reveal that the cochlear efferent reflex is differentially active during selective attention and inattention, for both auditory and visual tasks, although they do not reveal how attention is improved when efferent activity is greater. PMID:25994703

  12. Changes in otoacoustic emissions during selective auditory and visual attention.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Kyle P; Pasanen, Edward G; McFadden, Dennis

    2015-05-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated that the otoacoustic emissions (OAEs) measured during behavioral tasks can have different magnitudes when subjects are attending selectively or not attending. The implication is that the cognitive and perceptual demands of a task can affect the first neural stage of auditory processing-the sensory receptors themselves. However, the directions of the reported attentional effects have been inconsistent, the magnitudes of the observed differences typically have been small, and comparisons across studies have been made difficult by significant procedural differences. In this study, a nonlinear version of the stimulus-frequency OAE (SFOAE), called the nSFOAE, was used to measure cochlear responses from human subjects while they simultaneously performed behavioral tasks requiring selective auditory attention (dichotic or diotic listening), selective visual attention, or relative inattention. Within subjects, the differences in nSFOAE magnitude between inattention and attention conditions were about 2-3 dB for both auditory and visual modalities, and the effect sizes for the differences typically were large for both nSFOAE magnitude and phase. These results reveal that the cochlear efferent reflex is differentially active during selective attention and inattention, for both auditory and visual tasks, although they do not reveal how attention is improved when efferent activity is greater.

  13. Metrics for linking emissions of gases and aerosols to global precipitation changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shine, K. P.; Allan, R. P.; Collins, W. J.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.

    2015-04-01

    Recent advances in understanding have made it possible to relate global precipitation changes more directly to emissions of particular gases and aerosols that influence climate. Using these advances, a new index is developed here called the Global Precipitation-change Potential (GPP), which measures the precipitation change per unit mass of emissions. It is recognised that precipitation changes are predicted to be highly variable in size and sign between different regions, and ultimately climate change impacts will be more dependent on these regional changes. Nevertheless, the GPP presents a useful measure of the global-mean role of emissions of individual forcing agents. Results are presented for pulse (GPPP) and sustained (GPPS) emissions for selected long- and short-lived forcing agents (CO2, CH4, N2O, sulphate and black carbon - BC) using illustrative values of required parameters. The GPP can be used as a metric to compare the importance of emissions. This is akin to the global warming potential (GWP) and the global temperature-change potential (GTP) which are used to place emissions on a common scale. The GPP is further down the cause-effect chain from emissions to impacts than the GWP and GTP, and so provides an additional perspective. One key parameter needed for the GPP is the surface-atmosphere partitioning of radiative forcing. Few studies have presented results for this partitioning for different forcings, leading to more uncertainty in quantification of the GPP than the GWP or GTP. Using CO2 as references gas, the pulse and sustained GPP values for the non-CO2 species are larger than the corresponding GTP values, because the CO2 GPP is the sum of two quite strongly opposing terms. For BC emissions, the atmospheric forcing is sufficiently strong that the GPPS is opposite in sign to the GTPS. The choice of CO2 as a reference gas is problematic, especially for the GPPS at time horizons less than about 60 years, because the opposing terms make the CO2 GPPS

  14. Global Change Could Amplify Fire Effects on Soil Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    PubMed Central

    Niboyet, Audrey; Brown, Jamie R.; Dijkstra, Paul; Blankinship, Joseph C.; Leadley, Paul W.; Le Roux, Xavier; Barthes, Laure; Barnard, Romain L.; Field, Christopher B.; Hungate, Bruce A.

    2011-01-01

    Background Little is known about the combined impacts of global environmental changes and ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning, even though such combined impacts might play critical roles in shaping ecosystem processes that can in turn feed back to climate change, such as soil emissions of greenhouse gases. Methodology/Principal Findings We took advantage of an accidental, low-severity wildfire that burned part of a long-term global change experiment to investigate the interactive effects of a fire disturbance and increases in CO2 concentration, precipitation and nitrogen supply on soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions in a grassland ecosystem. We examined the responses of soil N2O emissions, as well as the responses of the two main microbial processes contributing to soil N2O production – nitrification and denitrification – and of their main drivers. We show that the fire disturbance greatly increased soil N2O emissions over a three-year period, and that elevated CO2 and enhanced nitrogen supply amplified fire effects on soil N2O emissions: emissions increased by a factor of two with fire alone and by a factor of six under the combined influence of fire, elevated CO2 and nitrogen. We also provide evidence that this response was caused by increased microbial denitrification, resulting from increased soil moisture and soil carbon and nitrogen availability in the burned and fertilized plots. Conclusions/Significance Our results indicate that the combined effects of fire and global environmental changes can exceed their effects in isolation, thereby creating unexpected feedbacks to soil greenhouse gas emissions. These findings highlight the need to further explore the impacts of ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning in the context of global change if we wish to be able to model future soil greenhouse gas emissions with greater confidence. PMID:21687708

  15. Global change could amplify fire effects on soil greenhouse gas emissions.

    PubMed

    Niboyet, Audrey; Brown, Jamie R; Dijkstra, Paul; Blankinship, Joseph C; Leadley, Paul W; Le Roux, Xavier; Barthes, Laure; Barnard, Romain L; Field, Christopher B; Hungate, Bruce A

    2011-01-01

    Little is known about the combined impacts of global environmental changes and ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning, even though such combined impacts might play critical roles in shaping ecosystem processes that can in turn feed back to climate change, such as soil emissions of greenhouse gases. We took advantage of an accidental, low-severity wildfire that burned part of a long-term global change experiment to investigate the interactive effects of a fire disturbance and increases in CO(2) concentration, precipitation and nitrogen supply on soil nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions in a grassland ecosystem. We examined the responses of soil N(2)O emissions, as well as the responses of the two main microbial processes contributing to soil N(2)O production--nitrification and denitrification--and of their main drivers. We show that the fire disturbance greatly increased soil N(2)O emissions over a three-year period, and that elevated CO(2) and enhanced nitrogen supply amplified fire effects on soil N(2)O emissions: emissions increased by a factor of two with fire alone and by a factor of six under the combined influence of fire, elevated CO(2) and nitrogen. We also provide evidence that this response was caused by increased microbial denitrification, resulting from increased soil moisture and soil carbon and nitrogen availability in the burned and fertilized plots. Our results indicate that the combined effects of fire and global environmental changes can exceed their effects in isolation, thereby creating unexpected feedbacks to soil greenhouse gas emissions. These findings highlight the need to further explore the impacts of ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning in the context of global change if we wish to be able to model future soil greenhouse gas emissions with greater confidence.

  16. Variations in European ammonia emissions due to daily weather fluctuations and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ambelas Skjøth, C.; Geels, C.

    2012-04-01

    Ammonia plays an important role in atmospheric processes. It is the main alkaline component in the atmosphere and is highly reactive in forming either aerosols or by depositing fast to most surfaces including sensitive ecosystems. The geographical distribution of ammonia emission has been highly studied, while the temporal variations have been somewhat neglected. Climate and daily meteorology affects the temporal distribution and the amount of ammonia emissions. This forms an important feed-back mechanism e.g. by changing ammonia emissions thus affecting aerosol composition and the sensitive ecosystems through associated nitrogen depositions. This feed-back mechanism has so far been overlooked in climate change and earth system science studies. Here we assess annual variations in ammonia emissions in central and Northern Europe as well as emission changes due to projected temperature changes in the future. We use the dynamical ammonia emission model (Skjøth et al., 2011) within the DAMOS system (Geels et al., 2012) with focus on the period 2000-2100. The model use hourly meteorological data from the MM5 model and bias-corrected climate data from the ENSEMBLES project. The model reproduces hourly changes in ammonia emissions due to climate and is also capable of taking into account changes in production methods as well as policy measures. Here we study the effect of climate change on five main agricultural sources to ammonia: 1) heated stables, 2) open cattle barns, 3) storage facilities, 4) animal waste and mineral fertilizer 5) grazing animals. Climate change increase emissions due to increased temperatures. The expected increase in ammonia emissions is typically 20-40% for cattle barns, storage facilities and application of manure in form of animal waste. Heated stables (e.g. pigs and poultry) are only marginally affected by climatic changes as these sources typically are heated to maintain a constant temperature. The heated stables therefore have a more or less

  17. Climate change and N2O emissions from South West England grasslands: A modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abalos, Diego; Cardenas, Laura M.; Wu, Lianhai

    2016-05-01

    Unravelling the impacts of climate change on agriculture becomes increasingly important, as the rates and magnitude of its effects are accelerating. Current estimates of the consequences of climate change on nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions remain largely uncertain; there is a need for more consistent and comprehensive assessments of this impact. In this study we explored the implications of two IPCC climate change projections (high and medium emissions scenarios) on N2O emissions from South West England grasslands for the time slices of a baseline, the 2020s, the 2050s and the 2080s, employing a process-based model (SPACSYS). The model was initially calibrated and validated using datasets collected from three grassland sites of the region. Statistical analysis showed that simulated results had no significant total error or bias compared to measured values. We found a consistent increase in N2O emissions of up to 94% under future climate change scenarios compared to those under the baseline, and warming rather than precipitation variability was the overriding factor controlling the N2O rise. Modelling fertilizer forms showed that replacing ammonium-nitrate fertilizers with urea or slurry significantly reduced N2O emissions (c. 30%). Our study highlights the urgent necessity to adopt viable N2O mitigation measures now in order to avoid higher emissions in the future.

  18. Assessing Wetland Methane Emission Changes in the Conterminous U.S. from 1973 to 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, J.; Zhu, Z.; Sleeter, B. M.; Zhu, Q.; Soulard, C. E.

    2014-12-01

    Climate and human land use are the main drivers of terrestrial ecosystem methane (CH4) emissions. Wetland expansion and contraction, methane production and release, as well as the interactions of methane with the carbon cycle, are processes critical to the examination of climate change mitigation strategies. This study uses the parallel Integrated Biosphere Simulator (pIBIS) and the State-and-Transition Simulation Model (ST-Sim) to simulate the climate-driven and land-use-driven CH4 emissions in the U.S. from 1973 to 2010. The ST-Sim model is used to backcast annual historical wetland cover from 2010 to 1973 based on recent baseline wetland maps (i.e. National Land Cover Dataset and National Wetland Inventory), historical land cover change trends, and probabilistic spatial multipliers. The pIBIS model is used to simulate the change of wetland water table depth and the production, oxidation, and transportation processes of CH4. Simulations are performed at 1-km spatial resolution using Department of Energy super-computing resources. Post-simulation programs are developed to analyze the spatial distribution and temporal trends of CH4 emissions in relation to inter-annual wetland area variation and climate (rainfall and temperature) variation. Relationships between CH4 emission and carbon sequestration and CO2 emission are also analyzed. Keywords: climate change, land cover change, land use change, greenhouse gas, biogeochemical model

  19. HARD X-RAY EMISSION DURING FLARES AND PHOTOSPHERIC FIELD CHANGES

    SciTech Connect

    Burtseva, O.; Petrie, G. J. D.; Pevtsov, A. A.; Martínez-Oliveros, J. C.

    2015-06-20

    We study the correlation between abrupt permanent changes of magnetic field during X-class flares observed by the Global Oscillation Network Group and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instruments, and the hard X-ray (HXR) emission observed by RHESSI, to relate the photospheric field changes to the coronal restructuring and investigate the origin of the field changes. We find that spatially the early RHESSI emission corresponds well to locations of the strong field changes. The field changes occur predominantly in the regions of strong magnetic field near the polarity inversion line (PIL). The later RHESSI emission does not correspond to significant field changes as the flare footpoints are moving away from the PIL. Most of the field changes start before or around the start time of the detectable HXR signal, and they end at about the same time or later than the detectable HXR flare emission. Some of the field changes propagate with speed close to that of the HXR footpoint at a later phase of the flare. The propagation of the field changes often takes place after the strongest peak in the HXR signal when the footpoints start moving away from the PIL, i.e., the field changes follow the same trajectory as the HXR footpoint, but at an earlier time. Thus, the field changes and HXR emission are spatio-temporally related but not co-spatial nor simultaneous. We also find that in the strongest X-class flares the amplitudes of the field changes peak a few minutes earlier than the peak of the HXR signal. We briefly discuss this observed time delay in terms of the formation of current sheets during eruptions.

  20. Long-term changes in Jovian synchrotron radio emission - Intrinsic variations or effects of viewing geometry?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hood, L. L.

    1993-04-01

    Possible causes of the observed long-term variation of Jovian synchrotron radio emission, including both intrinsic changes in the Jovian radiation belts and apparent changes due to variations in the Jovigraphic declination of the earth, DE, are investigated. An increase in diffusion rate with other parameters held constant results in an inward displacement of the peak emission radial distance that is not observed. Effects of viewing geometry changes are examined. The possible importance of such effects is suggested by a correlation between the total decimetric radio flux and DE, which varies between -3.3 and +3.3 deg during one Jovian orbital period. Because the Jovian central meridian longitudes where the magnetic latitude passes through zero during a given Jovian rotation change substantially with DE and since significant longitudinal asymmetries exist in both the volume emissivity and the latitudinal profile of the beam, the total intensity should be at least a partial function of D sub E.

  1. Opportunities to change development pathways toward lower greenhouse gas emissions through energy efficiency

    SciTech Connect

    Alterra, Swart; Masanet, Eric; Lecocq, Franck; Najam, Adil; Schaeffer, Robert; Winkler, Harald; Sathaye, Jayant

    2008-07-04

    There is a multiplicity of development pathways in which low energy sector emissions are not necessarily associated with low economic growth. However, changes in development pathways can rarely be imposed from the top. On this basis, examples of energy efficiency opportunities to change development pathways toward lower emissions are presented in this paper. We review opportunities at the sectoral and macro level. The potential for action on nonclimate policies that influence energy use and emissions are presented. Examples are drawn from policies already adopted and implemented in the energy sector. The paper discusses relationships between energy efficiency policies and their synergies and tradeoffs with sustainable development and greenhouse gas emissions. It points to ways that energy efficiency could be mainstreamed into devel?opment choices.

  2. Land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions from corn and cellulosic ethanol

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that may accompany land-use change (LUC) from increased biofuel feedstock production are a source of debate in the discussion of drawbacks and advantages of biofuels. Estimates of LUC GHG emissions focus mainly on corn ethanol and vary widely. Increasing the understanding of LUC GHG impacts associated with both corn and cellulosic ethanol will inform the on-going debate concerning their magnitudes and sources of variability. Results In our study, we estimate LUC GHG emissions for ethanol from four feedstocks: corn, corn stover, switchgrass, and miscanthus. We use new computable general equilibrium (CGE) results for worldwide LUC. U.S. domestic carbon emission factors are from state-level modelling with a surrogate CENTURY model and U.S. Forest Service data. This paper investigates the effect of several key domestic lands carbon content modelling parameters on LUC GHG emissions. International carbon emission factors are from the Woods Hole Research Center. LUC GHG emissions are calculated from these LUCs and carbon content data with Argonne National Laboratory’s Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB) model. Our results indicate that miscanthus and corn ethanol have the lowest (−10 g CO2e/MJ) and highest (7.6 g CO2e/MJ) LUC GHG emissions under base case modelling assumptions. The results for corn ethanol are lower than corresponding results from previous studies. Switchgrass ethanol base case results (2.8 g CO2e/MJ) were the most influenced by assumptions regarding converted forestlands and the fate of carbon in harvested wood products. They are greater than miscanthus LUC GHG emissions because switchgrass is a lower-yielding crop. Finally, LUC GHG emissions for corn stover are essentially negligible and insensitive to changes in model assumptions. Conclusions This research provides new insight into the influence of key carbon content modelling variables on LUC GHG emissions

  3. Future changes in biogenic isoprene emissions: how might they affect regional and global atmospheric chemistry?

    Treesearch

    Christine Wiedinmyer; Xuexi Tie; Alex Guenther; Ron Neilson; Claire. Granier

    2006-01-01

    Isoprene is emitted from vegetation to the atmosphere in significant quantities, and it plays an important role in the reactions that control tropospheric oxidant concentrations. As future climatic and land-cover changes occur, the spatial and temporal variations, as well as the magnitude of these biogenic isoprene emissions, are expected to change. This paper presents...

  4. Differentiating Climate Change and Emissions Influence on Future Ozone and Health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stowell, J.; Kim, Y. M.; Gao, Y.; Fu, J. S.; Chang, H. H.; Liu, Y.

    2015-12-01

    From the advent of coal burning and the subsequent industrial revolution to the present, human activities continue to influence ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations. Besides the obvious environmental and climate implications, studies have shown convincing links between O3 exposure and health. These adverse health outcomes range from impaired lung function and cardiovascular stress to premature death. However, little is known concerning the potential impacts of future mitigation policies on O3 and health. Applying novel modeling strategies, we provide evidence of the impact of mitigation on O3 attributable to both climate change and anthropogenic emissions. We employ the latest emission scenarios for both low and high emissions (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs) and include population projections to estimate excess mortality associated with each source separate from one another. We found that, by the mid-21st century, U.S. O3 could increase by 0.9% per year under a low emission future and by 1.6% under high emission settings. We predict excess mortality from high emission-induced O3 to increase annually by over 1,200 deaths. Conversely, excess deaths from lower emissions may decrease by over 1,600 annually. Taken together, these results indicate that mitigation efforts may significantly offset the effect of climate change on O3-related mortality.

  5. Changing speed-VMT distributions: the effects on emissions inventories and conformity.

    PubMed

    Nanzetta, K; Niemeier, D; Utts, J M

    2000-03-01

    The emissions factor modeling component of the motor vehicle emissions inventory (MVEI) modeling suite is currently being revised by the California Air Resources Board (CARB). One of the proposed changes in modeling philosophy is a shift from using link-based travel activity data to trip-based travel data for preparing mobile emissions inventories. Also as part of the revisions, new speed correction factors (SCFs) will be developed by CARB for the revised model. The new SCFs will be derived from vehicle emissions on 15 new driving cycles, each constructed to represent a typical trip at a specific average speed. This paper discusses how the new SCFs will affect transportation conformity and emissions inventory development, and evaluates the differences in total emissions produced by trip-based and link-based distributions of speed and vehicle miles of travel (VMT). We simulated both link-based and trip-based speed-VMT distributions using travel data from the Sacramento and San Diego travel demand models. On the basis of the simulation results, there is reason to expect that mobile emissions inventories constructed using the proposed trip-based philosophy will differ markedly from those constructed in the current manner. Noting that results may vary by region, increases are expected in the CO and HC inventory levels, with concomitant decreases in the NOx mobile emissions inventories.

  6. Changing trends in sulfur emissions in Asia: implications for acid deposition, air pollution, and climate.

    PubMed

    Carmichael, Gregory R; Streets, David G; Calori, Giuseppe; Amann, Markus; Jacobson, Mark Z; Hansen, James; Ueda, Hiromasa

    2002-11-15

    In the early 1990s, it was projected that annual SO2 emissions in Asia might grow to 80-110 Tg yr(-1) by 2020. Based on new high-resolution estimates from 1975 to 2000, we calculate that SO2 emissions in Asia might grow only to 40-45 Tg yr(-1) by 2020. The main reason for this lower estimate is a decline of SO2 emissions from 1995 to 2000 in China, which emits about two-thirds of Asian SO2. The decline was due to a reduction in industrial coal use, a slowdown of the Chinese economy, and the closure of small and inefficient plants, among other reasons. One effect of the reduction in SO2 emissions in China has been a reduction in acid deposition not only in China but also in Japan. Reductions should also improve visibility and reduce health problems. SO2 emission reductions may increase global warming, but this warming effect could be partially offset by reductions in the emissions of black carbon. How SO2 emissions in the region change in the coming decades will depend on many competing factors (economic growth, pollution control laws, etc.). However a continuation of current trends would result in sulfur emissions lower than any IPCC forecasts.

  7. Net change in carbon emissions with increased wood energy use in the United States

    Treesearch

    Prakash Nepal; David N. Wear; Kenneth E. Skog

    2014-01-01

    Use of wood biomass for energy results in carbon (C) emissions at the time of burning and alters C stocks on the land because of harvest, regrowth, and changes in land use or management. This study evaluates the potential effects of expanded woody biomass energy use (for heat and power) on net C emissions over time. A scenario with increased wood energy use is compared...

  8. Potential impact of climate change on marine dimethyl sulfide emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bopp, Laurent; Aumont, Olivier; Belviso, Sauveur; Monfray, Patrick

    2003-02-01

    Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a biogenic compound produced in sea-surface water and outgased to the atmosphere. Once in the atmosphere, DMS is a significant source of cloud condensation nuclei in the unpolluted marine atmosphere. It has been postulated that climate may be partly modulated by variations in DMS production through a DMS-cloud condensation nuclei-albedo feedback. We present here a modelled estimation of the response of DMS sea-water concentrations and DMS fluxes to climate change, following previous work on marine DMS modeling (Aumont et al., 2002) and on the global warming impact on marine biology (Bopp et al., 2001). An atmosphere ocean general circulation model (GCM) was coupled to a marine biogeochemical scheme and used without flux correction to simulate climate response to increased greenhouse gases (a 1% increase per year in atmospheric CO2 until it has doubled). The predicted global distribution of DMS at 1 × CO2 compares reasonably well with observations; however, in the high latitudes, very elevated concentrations of DMS due to spring and summer blooms of Phaeocystis can not be reproduced. At 2 × CO2, the model estimates a small increase of global DMS flux to the atmosphere (+2%) but with large spatial heterogeneities (from -15% to +30% for the zonal mean). Mechanisms affecting DMS fluxes are changes in (1) marine biological productivity, (2) relative abundance of phytoplankton species and (3) wind intensity. The mean DMS flux perturbation we simulate represents a small negative feedback on global warming; however, the large regional changes may significantly impact regional temperature and precipitation patterns.

  9. Understanding changes in the UK's CO2 emissions: a global perspective.

    PubMed

    Baiocchi, Giovanni; Minx, Jan C

    2010-02-15

    The UK appears to be a leading country in curbing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Unlike many other developed countries, it has already met its Kyoto obligations and defined ambitious, legally binding targets for the future. Recently this achievement has been called into question as it ignores rapidly changing patterns of production and international trade. We use structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to investigate the drivers behind annual changes in CO(2) emission from consumption in the UK between 1992 and 2004. In contrast with previous SDA-based studies, we apply the decomposition to a global, multiregional input-output model (MRIO), which accounts for UK imports from all regions and uses region-specific production structures and CO(2) intensities. We find that improvements from "domestic" changes in efficiency and production structure led to a 148 Mt reduction in CO(2) emissions, which only partially offsets emission increases of 217 Mt from changes in the global supply chain and from growing consumer demand. Recent emission reductions achieved in the UK are not merely a reflection of a greening of the domestic supply chain, but also of a change in the international division of labor in the global production of goods and services.

  10. Webinar Presentation: Linking Regional Aerosol Emission Changes with Multiple Impact Measures through Direct and Cloud-Related Forcing Estimates

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This presentation, Linking Regional Aerosol Emission Changes with Multiple Impact Measures through Direct and Cloud-Related Forcing Estimates, was given at the STAR Black Carbon 2016 Webinar Series: Accounting for Impact, Emissions, and Uncertainty.

  11. Estimation of Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions considering Aging and Climate Change in Residential Sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, M.; Park, C.; Park, J. H.; Jung, T. Y.; Lee, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The impacts of climate change, particularly that of rising temperatures, are being observed across the globe and are expected to further increase. To counter this phenomenon, numerous nations are focusing on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Because energy demand management is considered as a key factor in emissions reduction, it is necessary to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in relation to climate change. Further, because South Korea is the world's fastest nation to become aged, demographics have also become instrumental in the accurate estimation of energy demands and emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in the residential sectors of South Korea with regard to climate change and aging to build more accurate strategies for energy demand management and emissions reduction goals. This study, which was stablished with 2010 and 2050 as the base and target years, respectively, was divided into a two-step process. The first step evaluated the effects of aging and climate change on energy demand, and the second estimated future energy use and GHG emissions through projected scenarios. First, aging characteristics and climate change factors were analyzed by using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis and the application of historical data. In the analysis of changes in energy use, the effects of activity, structure, and intensity were considered; the degrees of contribution were derived from each effect in addition to their relations to energy demand. Second, two types of scenarios were stablished based on this analysis. The aging scenarios are business as usual and future characteristics scenarios, and were used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Finally, energy consumption and GHG emissions were estimated by using a combination of scenarios. The results of these scenarios show an increase in energy consumption

  12. Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Sumatra.

    PubMed

    Marlier, Miriam E; DeFries, Ruth; Pennington, Derric; Nelson, Erik; Ordway, Elsa M; Lewis, Jeremy; Koplitz, Shannon N; Mickley, Loretta J

    2015-01-01

    Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change over the last few decades as forests and peatswamps have been cleared for more intensively managed land uses, including oil palm and timber plantations. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and managing land for more intensive uses, and the related emissions affect public health by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations and adding to global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Here, we examine emissions from fires associated with land use clearing and land management on the Indonesian island of Sumatra and the sensitivity of this fire activity to interannual meteorological variability. We find ~80% of 2005-2009 Sumatra emissions are associated with degradation or land use maintenance instead of immediate land use conversion, especially in dry years. We estimate Sumatra fire emissions from land use change and maintenance for the next two decades with five scenarios of land use change, the Global Fire Emissions Database Version 3, detailed 1-km2 land use change maps, and MODIS fire radiative power observations. Despite comprising only 16% of the original study area, we predict that 37-48% of future Sumatra emissions from land use change will occur in fuel-rich peatswamps unless this land cover type is protected effectively. This result means that the impact of fires on future air quality and climate in Equatorial Asia will be decided in part by the conservation status given to the remaining peatswamps on Sumatra. Results from this article will be implemented in an atmospheric transport model to quantify the public health impacts from the transport of fire emissions associated with future land use scenarios in Sumatra.

  13. Can biofuels be a solution to climate change? The implications of land use change-related emissions for policy

    PubMed Central

    Khanna, Madhu; Crago, Christine L.; Black, Mairi

    2011-01-01

    Biofuels have gained increasing attention as an alternative to fossil fuels for several reasons, one of which is their potential to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector. Recent studies have questioned the validity of claims about the potential of biofuels to reduce GHG emissions relative to the liquid fossil fuels they are replacing when emissions owing to direct (DLUC) and indirect land use changes (ILUC) that accompany biofuels are included in the life cycle GHG intensity of biofuels. Studies estimate that the GHG emissions released from ILUC could more than offset the direct GHG savings by producing biofuels and replacing liquid fossil fuels and create a ‘carbon debt’ with a long payback period. The estimates of this payback period, however, vary widely across biofuels from different feedstocks and even for a single biofuel across different modelling assumptions. In the case of corn ethanol, this payback period is found to range from 15 to 200 years. We discuss the challenges in estimating the ILUC effect of a biofuel and differences across biofuels, and its sensitivity to the assumptions and policy scenarios considered by different economic models. We also discuss the implications of ILUC for designing policies that promote biofuels and seek to reduce GHG emissions. In a first-best setting, a global carbon tax is needed to set both DLUC and ILUC emissions to their optimal levels. However, it is unclear whether unilateral GHG mitigation policies, even if they penalize the ILUC-related emissions, would increase social welfare and lead to optimal emission levels. In the absence of a global carbon tax, incentivizing sustainable land use practices through certification standards, government regulations and market-based pressures may be a viable option for reducing ILUC. PMID:22482030

  14. Can biofuels be a solution to climate change? The implications of land use change-related emissions for policy.

    PubMed

    Khanna, Madhu; Crago, Christine L; Black, Mairi

    2011-04-06

    Biofuels have gained increasing attention as an alternative to fossil fuels for several reasons, one of which is their potential to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector. Recent studies have questioned the validity of claims about the potential of biofuels to reduce GHG emissions relative to the liquid fossil fuels they are replacing when emissions owing to direct (DLUC) and indirect land use changes (ILUC) that accompany biofuels are included in the life cycle GHG intensity of biofuels. Studies estimate that the GHG emissions released from ILUC could more than offset the direct GHG savings by producing biofuels and replacing liquid fossil fuels and create a 'carbon debt' with a long payback period. The estimates of this payback period, however, vary widely across biofuels from different feedstocks and even for a single biofuel across different modelling assumptions. In the case of corn ethanol, this payback period is found to range from 15 to 200 years. We discuss the challenges in estimating the ILUC effect of a biofuel and differences across biofuels, and its sensitivity to the assumptions and policy scenarios considered by different economic models. We also discuss the implications of ILUC for designing policies that promote biofuels and seek to reduce GHG emissions. In a first-best setting, a global carbon tax is needed to set both DLUC and ILUC emissions to their optimal levels. However, it is unclear whether unilateral GHG mitigation policies, even if they penalize the ILUC-related emissions, would increase social welfare and lead to optimal emission levels. In the absence of a global carbon tax, incentivizing sustainable land use practices through certification standards, government regulations and market-based pressures may be a viable option for reducing ILUC.

  15. Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Pennington, D.; Ordway, E.; Nelson, E.; Mickley, L.; Koplitz, S.

    2013-12-01

    Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change in past decades as forests and peatlands are cleared for agricultural development, including oil palm and timber plantations1. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and the subsequent emissions can have important public health impacts by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations2. This regional haze was dramatically seen in Singapore during June 2013 due to the transport of emissions from fires in Sumatra. Our study is part of a larger project that will quantify the public health impact of various land use development scenarios for Sumatra over the coming decades. Here, we describe how we translate economic projections of land use change into future fire emissions inventories for GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport simulations. We relate past GFED3 fire emissions3 to detailed 1-km land use change data and MODIS fire radiative power observations, and apply these relationships to future estimates of land use change. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to use modeling results to interact with policy makers and influence development strategies in ways that protect public health. 1Miettinen et al. 2011. Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010. Glob. Change Biol.,17 (7), 2261-2270. 2Marlier et al. 2013. El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia. Nature Clim. Change, 3, 131-136. 3van der Werf et al. 2010. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009). Atmos. Chem. Physics, 10 (23), 11707-11735.

  16. Decadal changes in CH4 and CO2 emissions on the Alaskan North Slope

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sweeney, C.; Commane, R.; Wofsy, S.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Karion, A.; Stone, R. S.; Chang, R.; Tans, P. P.; Wolter, S.

    2016-12-01

    Large changes in surface air temperature, sea ice cover and permafrost in the Arctic Boreal Ecosystems (ABE) are significantly impacting the critical ecosystem services and human societies that are dependent on the ABE. In order to predict the outcome of continued change in the climate system of the ABE, it is necessary to look at how past changes in climate have affected the ABE. We look at 30 years of CH4 and 42 years of CO2 observations from the NOAA Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network site in Barrow, Alaska. By eliminating background trends and only looking at data collected when winds are blowing off the North Slope we find very little change in CH4 enhancements, but significant changes in the CO2 enhancements coming off the tundra. The bulk of both CO2 and CH4 emissions appear to be emitted well after the first snow fall on the North Slope. CO2 emissions are a strongly correlation with summer surface temperatures, while CH4 emissions appear insensitive to the large temperature changes that occurred over the measurement period. These results suggest that CO2, and not CH4 emissions, are a likely pathway for the degradation of permafrost carbon.

  17. Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979-2012: impact of climate and land-use changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stavrakou, T.; Müller, J.-F.; Bauwens, M.; De Smedt, I.; Van Roozendael, M.; Guenther, A.; Wild, M.; Xia, X.

    2014-05-01

    Due to the scarcity of observational constraints and the rapidly changing environment in East and Southeast Asia, isoprene emissions predicted by models are expected to bear substantial uncertainties. The aim of this study is to improve upon the existing bottom-up estimates, and to investigate the temporal evolution of the fluxes in Asia over 1979-2012. To this purpose, we calculate the hourly emissions at 0.5°×0.5° resolution using the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim climatology. In order to remedy for known biases identified in previous studies, and to improve the simulation of interannual variability and trends in emissions, this study incorporates (i) changes in land use, including the rapid expansion of oil palms, (ii) meteorological variability according to ERA-Interim, (iii) long-term changes in solar radiation (dimming/brightening) constrained by surface network radiation measurements, and (iv) recent experimental evidence that South Asian tropical forests are much weaker isoprene emitters than previously assumed, and on the other hand, that oil palms have a strong isoprene emission capacity. These effects lead to a significant lowering (factor of 2) in the total isoprene fluxes over the studied domain, and to emission reductions reaching a factor of 3.5 in Southeast Asia. The bottom-up annual isoprene emissions for 2005 are estimated at 7.0, 4.8, 8.3, and 2.9 Tg in China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively. The isoprene flux anomaly over the whole domain and studied period is found to be strongly correlated with the Oceanic Niño Index (r = 0.73), with positive (negative) anomalies related to El Niño (La Niña) years. Changes in temperature and solar radiation are the major drivers of the interannual variability and trends in the emissions, except over semi-arid areas such as northwestern China, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, where soil moisture is by far the main cause of interannual emission changes. In our base simulation, annual

  18. Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979–2012: impact of climate and land-use changes

    SciTech Connect

    Stavrakou, T.; Müller, J. -F.; Bauwens, M.; De Smedt, I.; Van Roozendael, M.; Guenther, A.; Wild, M.; Xia, X.

    2014-01-01

    Due to the scarcity of observational constraints and the rapidly changing environment in East and Southeast Asia, isoprene emissions predicted by models are expected to bear substantial uncertainties. The aim of this study is to improve upon the existing bottom-up estimates, and to investigate the temporal evolution of the fluxes in Asia over 1979–2012. To this purpose, we calculate the hourly emissions at 0.5°×0.5° resolution using the MEGAN–MOHYCAN model driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim climatology. In order to remedy for known biases identified in previous studies, and to improve the simulation of interannual variability and trends in emissions, this study incorporates (i) changes in land use, including the rapid expansion of oil palms, (ii) meteorological variability according to ERA-Interim, (iii) long-term changes in solar radiation (dimming/brightening) constrained by surface network radiation measurements, and (iv) recent experimental evidence that South Asian tropical forests are much weaker isoprene emitters than previously assumed, and on the other hand, that oil palms have a strong isoprene emission capacity. These effects lead to a significant lowering (factor of 2) in the total isoprene fluxes over the studied domain, and to emission reductions reaching a factor of 3.5 in Southeast Asia. The bottom-up annual isoprene emissions for 2005 are estimated at 7.0, 4.8, 8.3, and 2.9 Tg in China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively. The isoprene flux anomaly over the whole domain and studied period is found to be strongly correlated with the Oceanic Niño Index (r = 0.73), with positive (negative) anomalies related to El Niño (La Niña) years. Changes in temperature and solar radiation are the major drivers of the interannual variability and trends in the emissions, except over semi-arid areas such as northwestern China, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, where soil moisture is by far the main cause of interannual emission changes. In our base simulation

  19. Greenhouse gas emission mitigation relevant to changes in municipal solid waste management system.

    PubMed

    Pikoń, Krzysztof; Gaska, Krzysztof

    2010-07-01

    Standard methods for assessing the environmental impact of waste management systems are needed to underpin the development and implementation of sustainable waste management practice. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a tool for comprehensively ensuring such assessment and covers all impacts associated with waste management. LCA is often called "from cradle to grave" analysis. This paper integrates information on the greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of various management options for some of the most common materials in municipal solid waste (MSW). Different waste treatment options for MSW were studied in a system analysis. Different combinations of recycling (cardboard, plastics, glass, metals), biological treatment (composting), and incineration as well as land-filling were studied. The index of environmental burden in the global warming impact category was calculated. The calculations are based on LCA methodology. All emissions taking place in the whole life cycle system were taken into account. The analysis included "own emissions," or emissions from the system at all stages of the life cycle, and "linked emissions," or emissions from other sources linked with the system in an indirect way. Avoided emissions caused by recycling and energy recovery were included in the analysis. Displaced emissions of GHGs originate from the substitution of energy or materials derived from waste for alternative sources. The complex analysis of the environmental impact of municipal waste management systems before and after application of changes in MSW systems according to European Union regulations is presented in this paper. The evaluation is made for MSW systems in Poland.

  20. Reducing nitrous oxide emissions to mitigate climate change and protect the ozone layer.

    PubMed

    Li, Li; Xu, Jianhua; Hu, Jianxin; Han, Jiarui

    2014-05-06

    Reducing nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions offers the combined benefits of mitigating climate change and protecting the ozone layer. This study estimates historical and future N2O emissions and explores the mitigation potential for China's chemical industry. The results show that (1) from 1990 to 2012, industrial N2O emissions in China grew by some 37-fold from 5.07 to 174 Gg (N2O), with total accumulated emissions of 1.26 Tg, and (2) from 2012 to 2020, the projected emissions are expected to continue growing rapidly from 174 to 561 Gg under current policies and assuming no additional mitigation measures. The total accumulated mitigation potential for this forecast period is about 1.54 Tg, the equivalent of reducing all the 2011 greenhouse gases from Australia or halocarbon ozone-depleting substances from China. Adipic acid production, the major industrial emission source, contributes nearly 80% of the industrial N2O emissions, and represents about 96.2% of the industrial mitigation potential. However, the mitigation will not happen without implementing effective policies and regulatory programs.

  1. [Spatiotemporal variations of natural wetland CH4 emissions over China under future climate change].

    PubMed

    Liu, Jian-gong; Zhu, Qiu-an; Shen, Yan; Yang, Yan-zheng; Luo, Yun-peng; Peng, Chang-hui

    2015-11-01

    Based on a new process-based model, TRIPLEX-GHG, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal variations of natural wetland CH4 emissions over China under different future climate change scenarios. When natural wetland distributions were fixed, the amount of CH4 emissions from natural wetland ecosystem over China would increase by 32.0%, 55.3% and 90.8% by the end of 21st century under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP2. 6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, compared with the current level. Southern China would have higher CH4 emissions compared to that from central and northern China. Besides, there would be relatively low emission fluxes in western China while relatively high emission fluxes in eastern China. Spatially, the areas with relatively high CH4 emission fluxes would be concentrated in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Northeast and the coasts of the Pearl River. In the future, most natural wetlands would emit more CH4 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than that of 2005. However, under RCP2.6 scenario, the increasing trend would be curbed and CH4 emissions (especially from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau) begin to decrease in the late 21st century.

  2. Correlation between ethylene emission and skin colour changes during papaya (Carica papaya L.) fruit ripening

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    da Silva, M. G.; Oliveira, J. G.; Vitoria, A. P.; Corrêa, S. F.; Pereira, M. G.; Campostrini, E.; Santos, E. O.; Cavalli, A.; Vargas, H.

    2005-06-01

    The skin colour changes and ethylene emission rates were monitored during papaya (C. papaya L.) fruit ripening. Two groups of papaya (‘Formosa’ and ‘Solo’) were applied in this study. The total colour difference was used as measured parameter and the corresponding half time of its saturation was used as correlation parameter. A high correlation factor between the saturation half time and corresponding climacteric peak time was found. It was concluded that high ethylene emission rate in ‘Solo’ fruit promotes a quick change of the total colour difference.

  3. Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zhen; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Stenke, Andrea; Li, Xin; Hodson, Elke L; Zhu, Gaofeng; Huang, Chunlin; Poulter, Benjamin

    2017-09-05

    Wetland methane (CH4) emissions are the largest natural source in the global CH4 budget, contributing to roughly one third of total natural and anthropogenic emissions. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after CO2, CH4 is strongly associated with climate feedbacks. However, due to the paucity of data, wetland CH4 feedbacks were not fully assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The degree to which future expansion of wetlands and CH4 emissions will evolve and consequently drive climate feedbacks is thus a question of major concern. Here we present an ensemble estimate of wetland CH4 emissions driven by 38 general circulation models for the 21st century. We find that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH4 emissions will dominate anthropogenic CH4 emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6). Depending on scenarios, wetland CH4 feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean radiative forcing of 0.04 W·m(-2) to 0.19 W·m(-2) by the end of the 21st century. Under the "worst-case" RCP8.5 scenario, with no climate mitigation, boreal CH4 emissions are enhanced by 18.05 Tg to 41.69 Tg, due to thawing of inundated areas during the cold season (December to May) and rising temperature, while tropical CH4 emissions accelerate with a total increment of 48.36 Tg to 87.37 Tg by 2099. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH4 feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 °C.

  4. The integrated global temperature change potential (iGTP) and relationships between emission metrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peters, Glen P.; Aamaas, Borgar; Berntsen, Terje; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.

    2011-12-01

    The Kyoto Protocol compares greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) using the global warming potential (GWP) with a 100 yr time-horizon. The GWP was developed, however, to illustrate the difficulties in comparing GHGs. In response, there have been many critiques of the GWP and several alternative emission metrics have been proposed. To date, there has been little focus on understanding the linkages between, and interpretations of, different emission metrics. We use an energy balance model to mathematically link the absolute GWP, absolute global temperature change potential (AGTP), absolute ocean heat perturbation (AOHP), and integrated AGTP. For pulse emissions, energy conservation requires that AOHP = AGWP - iAGTP/λ and hence AGWP and iAGTP are closely linked and converge as AOHP decays to zero. When normalizing the metrics with CO2 (GWP, GTP, and iGTP), we find that the iGTP and GWP are similar numerically for a wide range of GHGs and time-horizons, except for very short-lived species. The similarity between the iGTPX and GWPX depends on how well a pulse emission of CO2 can substitute for a pulse emission of X across a range of time-horizons. The ultimate choice of emission metric(s) and time-horizon(s) depends on policy objectives. To the extent that limiting integrated temperature change over a specific time-horizon is consistent with the broader objectives of climate policy, our analysis suggests that the GWP represents a relatively robust, transparent and policy-relevant emission metric.

  5. The Impact of Changing Climate on Ammonia Emissions from Agriculture and the Associated Climate Forcings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, D. S.; Riddick, S. N.; Hess, P. G. M.

    2015-12-01

    Agriculture is the largest anthropogenic source of ammonia (NH3) on a global scale with major contributions from the application of synthetic fertilizer and manure from livestock. While strict controls are placed on the emissions of many industrial pollutants, NH3 concentrations are expected to increase this century. In addition to future expansion of agricultural activities that could lead to greater NH3 emissions, NH3 emissions are affected by changes in temperature and precipitation. Here we use a newly developed agricultural N pathways model running in a global terrestrial model (Community Land Model v4.0) to estimate future NH3 emissions from manure and synthetic fertilizer application, and the impact of changing climate on these emissions and other N pathways (runoff, denitrification, etc.). We include future increases in the application of manure and synthetic fertilizer that are consistent with a middle-of-the-road projection of population growth and per capita caloric intake. Combined with atmospheric forcing that follows RCP8.5, NH3 emissions increase by about 50% and 90% between years 2010 and 2100 from synthetic fertilizer and manure, respectively. Roughly 25% of this increase can be attributed to the changing climate, mainly increased global temperatures over the 21st century. We show associated changes in ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate aerosol concentrations and radiative forcings, the results of a set of additional simulations using the Community Atmosphere Model v5.0 and an offline radiative transfer scheme. This work suggests that projections of global NH3 concentrations need to take changes in climate into account.

  6. Arctic climate response to regional aerosol emission changes between 1980 and 2005

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ekman, A.; Acosta Navarro, J. C.; Varma, V.; Riipinen, I.; Seland, O.; Kirkevag, A.; Struthers, H.; Iverson, T.; Hansson, H. C.

    2015-12-01

    Emissions of aerosols and their precursors have due to air quality regulations drastically decreased at northern hemisphere mid-latitudes during the latest decades. At the same time, emissions in the northern hemisphere tropics and subtropics have increased e.g. as a consequence of the strong economic growth in East Asia. Using the fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model NorESM, we assess the influence of these regional emission changes on climate with a particular focus on the Arctic. Different mechanisms that couple the localized forcing with the corresponding temperature response are also suggested. The European emission reductions of SO2 that have taken place since the 1980's, seem to have had a disproportionally large effect on the Arctic climate compared to the rest of the northern hemisphere. Locally, the Arctic warming due to the decreased SO2 exceeds 1K. The primary reason for this strong remote temperature response is an increased poleward dry-static heat transport, which is initiated by the enhanced meridional temperature gradient. Emission changes of other aerosol types and over other regions such as North America and Asia appear to have had a much smaller influence on recent Artic climate change. Possible reasons for this differential response will be discussed.

  7. Soil nitrous oxide emissions under climate change in Mediterranean dryland conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Álvaro-Fuentes, Jorge; Arrúe, José Luis; Plaza-Bonilla, Daniel; Cantero-Martínez, Carlos

    2016-04-01

    Soils play a double role in relation with climate change. Soils have the ability to decrease atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration throughout soil carbon sequestration and, concurrently, they are also a main source of greenhouse gases. Particularly, agricultural soils are major emitters of nitrous oxide (N2O) globally. Recent outputs from general circulation models show that in the near future drought stress would be especially critical in the Mediterranean basin. These predictions could have a noteworthy impact on soil N2O emissions. Consequently, current mitigation options might be no longer valid in the near future. The main objective of this work was to determine the capability of different land uses under climate change conditions to mitigate soil N2O emissions in Mediterranean dryland agroecosystems. Soil N2O emissions were measured during 18 months (from December 2011 to June 2013) under different land uses in a typical Mediterranean agroecosystem. The observed data was used to test the ability of the Daycent model to simulate N2O emissions in dryland Mediterranean soils. Next, the model was used to predict the impact of climate change on soil N2O emissions under different land use scenarios in Mediterranean conditions.

  8. The importance of climate change and nitrogen use efficiency for future nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanter, David R.; Zhang, Xin; Mauzerall, Denise L.; Malyshev, Sergey; Shevliakova, Elena

    2016-09-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance. Previous projections of agricultural N2O (the dominant anthropogenic source) show emissions changing in tandem, or at a faster rate than changes in nitrogen (N) consumption. However, recent studies suggest that the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect may increase plant N uptake, which could decrease soil N losses and dampen increases in N2O. To evaluate this hypothesis at a global scale, we use a process-based land model with a coupled carbon-nitrogen cycle to examine how changes in climatic factors, land-use, and N application rates could affect agricultural N2O emissions by 2050. Assuming little improvement in N use efficiency (NUE), the model projects a 24%-31% increase in global agricultural N2O emissions by 2040-2050 depending on the climate scenario—a relatively moderate increase compared to the projected increases in N inputs (42%-44%) and previously published emissions projections (38%-75%). This occurs largely because the CO2 fertilization effect enhances plant N uptake in several regions, which subsequently dampens N2O emissions. And yet, improvements in NUE could still deliver important environmental benefits by 2050: equivalent to 10 Pg CO2 equivalent and 0.6 Tg ozone depletion potential.

  9. Carbon accounting and economic model uncertainty of emissions from biofuels-induced land use change.

    PubMed

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'Hare, Michael

    2015-03-03

    Few of the numerous published studies of the emissions from biofuels-induced "indirect" land use change (ILUC) attempt to propagate and quantify uncertainty, and those that have done so have restricted their analysis to a portion of the modeling systems used. In this study, we pair a global, computable general equilibrium model with a model of greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change to quantify the parametric uncertainty in the paired modeling system's estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from ILUC induced by expanded production of three biofuels. We find that for the three fuel systems examined--US corn ethanol, Brazilian sugar cane ethanol, and US soybean biodiesel--95% of the results occurred within ±20 g CO2e MJ(-1) of the mean (coefficient of variation of 20-45%), with economic model parameters related to crop yield and the productivity of newly converted cropland (from forestry and pasture) contributing most of the variance in estimated ILUC emissions intensity. Although the experiments performed here allow us to characterize parametric uncertainty, changes to the model structure have the potential to shift the mean by tens of grams of CO2e per megajoule and further broaden distributions for ILUC emission intensities.

  10. Estimating net changes in life-cycle emissions from adoption of emerging civil infrastructure technologies.

    PubMed

    Amponsah, Isaac; Harrison, Kenneth W; Rizos, Dimitris C; Ziehl, Paul H

    2008-01-01

    There is a net emissions change when adopting new materials for use in civil infrastructure design. To evaluate the total net emissions change, one must consider changes in manufacture and associated life-cycle emissions, as well as changes in the quantity of material required. In addition, in principle one should also consider any differences in costs of the two designs because cost savings can be applied to other economic activities with associated environmental impacts. In this paper, a method is presented that combines these considerations to permit an evaluation of the net change in emissions when considering the adoption of emerging technologies/materials for civil infrastructure. The method factors in data on differences between a standard and new material for civil infrastructure, material requirements as specified in designs using both materials, and price information. The life-cycle assessment approach known as economic input-output life-cycle assessment (EIO-LCA) is utilized. A brief background on EIO-LCA is provided because its use is central to the method. The methodology is demonstrated with analysis of a switch from carbon steel to high-performance steel in military bridge design. The results are compared with a simplistic analysis that accounts for the weight reduction afforded by use of the high-performance steel but assuming no differences in manufacture.

  11. The impact of climate change and emissions control on future ozone levels: Implications for human health.

    PubMed

    Stowell, Jennifer D; Kim, Young-Min; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S; Chang, Howard H; Liu, Yang

    2017-11-01

    Overwhelming evidence has shown that, from the Industrial Revolution to the present, human activities influence ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations. Past studies demonstrate links between O3 exposure and health. However, knowledge gaps remain in our understanding concerning the impacts of climate change mitigation policies on O3 concentrations and health. Using a hybrid downscaling approach, we evaluated the separate impact of climate change and emission control policies on O3 levels and associated excess mortality in the US in the 2050s under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We show that, by the 2050s, under RCP4.5, increased O3 levels due to combined climate change and emission control policies, could contribute to an increase of approximately 50 premature deaths annually nationwide in the US. The biggest impact, however, is seen under RCP8.5, where rises in O3 concentrations are expected to result in over 2,200 additional premature deaths annually. The largest increases in O3 are seen in RCP8.5 in the Northeast, the Southeast, the Central, and the West regions of the US. Additionally, when O3 increases are examined by climate change and emissions contributions separately, the benefits of emissions mitigation efforts may significantly outweigh the effects of climate change mitigation policies on O3-related mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Isoprenoid emission response to changing light conditions of English oak, European beech and Norway spruce

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Meeningen, Ylva; Schurgers, Guy; Rinnan, Riikka; Holst, Thomas

    2017-09-01

    Light is an important environmental factor controlling biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions, but in natural conditions its impact is hard to separate from other influential factors such as temperature. We studied the light response of foliar BVOC emissions, photosynthesis and stomatal conductance on three common European tree species, namely English oak (Quercus robur), European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and two provenances of Norway spruce (Picea abies) in Taastrup, Denmark. Leaf scale measurements were performed on the lowest positioned branches of the tree in July 2015. Light intensity was increased in four steps (0, 500, 1000 and 1500 µmol m-2 s-1), whilst other chamber conditions such as temperature, humidity and CO2 levels were fixed. Whereas the emission rate differed between individuals of the same species, the relative contributions of compounds to the total isoprenoid emission remained similar. Whilst some compounds were species specific, the compounds α-pinene, camphene, 3-carene, limonene and eucalyptol were emitted by all of the measured tree species. Some compounds, like isoprene and sabinene, showed an increasing emission response with increasing light intensity, whereas other compounds, like camphene, had no significant emission response to light for most of the measured trees. English oak and European beech showed high light-dependent emission fractions from isoprene and sabinene, but other emitted compounds were light independent. For the two provenances of Norway spruce, the compounds α-pinene, 3-carene and eucalyptol showed high light-dependent fractions for many of the measured trees. This study highlights differences between compound emissions in their response to a change in light and a possible light independence for certain compounds, which might be valid for a wider range of tree species. This information could be of importance when improving emission models and to further emphasize the discussion regarding light or

  13. Biofuels, land use change, and greenhouse gas emissions: some unexplored variables.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hyungtae; Kim, Seungdo; Dale, Bruce E

    2009-02-01

    Greenhouse gas release from land use change (the so-called "carbon debt") has been identified as a potentially significant contributor to the environmental profile of biofuels. The time required for biofuels to overcome this carbon debt due to land use change and begin providing cumulative greenhouse gas benefits is referred to as the "payback period" and has been estimated to be 100-1000 years depending on the specific ecosystem involved in the land use change event. Two mechanisms for land use change exist: "direct" land use change, in which the land use change occurs as part of a specific supply chain for a specific biofuel production facility, and "indirect" land use change, in which market forces act to produce land use change in land that is not part of a specific biofuel supply chain, including, for example, hypothetical land use change on another continent. Existing land use change studies did not consider many of the potentially important variables that might affect the greenhouse gas emissions of biofuels. We examine here several variables that have not yet been addressed in land use change studies. Our analysis shows that cropping management is a key factor in estimating greenhouse gas emissions associated with land use change. Sustainable cropping management practices (no-till and no-till plus cover crops) reduce the payback period to 3 years for the grassland conversion case and to 14 years for the forest conversion case. It is significant that no-till and cover crop practices also yield higher soil organic carbon (SOC) levels in corn fields derived from former grasslands or forests than the SOC levels that result if these grasslands or forests are allowed to continue undisturbed. The United States currently does not hold any of its domestic industries responsible for its greenhouse gas emissions. Thus the greenhouse gas standards established for renewable fuels such as corn ethanol in the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 set a

  14. The dynamic relationship between structural change and CO2 emissions in Malaysia: a cointegrating approach.

    PubMed

    Ali, Wajahat; Abdullah, Azrai; Azam, Muhammad

    2017-05-01

    The current study investigates the dynamic relationship between structural changes, real GDP per capita, energy consumption, trade openness, population density, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions within the EKC framework over a period 1971-2013. The study used the autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) approach to investigate the long-run relationship between the selected variables. The study also employed the dynamic ordinary least squared (DOLS) technique to obtain the robust long-run estimates. Moreover, the causal relationship between the variables is explored using the VECM Granger causality test. Empirical results reveal a negative relationship between structural change and CO2 emissions in the long run. The results indicate a positive relationship between energy consumption, trade openness, and CO2 emissions. The study applied the turning point formula of Itkonen (2012) rather than the conventional formula of the turning point. The empirical estimates of the study do not support the presence of the EKC relationship between income and CO2 emissions. The Granger causality test indicates the presence of long-run bidirectional causality between energy consumption, structural change, and CO2 emissions in the long run. Economic growth, openness to trade, and population density unidirectionally cause CO2 emissions. These results suggest that the government should focus more on information-based services rather than energy-intensive manufacturing activities. The feedback relationship between energy consumption and CO2 emissions suggests that there is an ominous need to refurbish the energy-related policy reforms to ensure the installations of some energy-efficient modern technologies.

  15. LINKING CHANGES IN UTILITY NO X EMISSIONS TO CHANGE IN OZONE AIR QUALITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The NOx State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call was designed to reduce Northeastern U.S. NOx emissions from utilities. With these reductions, it was anticipated that the amount of ozone attributed to transport from other states would in turn be reduced. In th...

  16. LINKING CHANGES IN UTILITY NO X EMISSIONS TO CHANGE IN OZONE AIR QUALITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The NOx State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call was designed to reduce Northeastern U.S. NOx emissions from utilities. With these reductions, it was anticipated that the amount of ozone attributed to transport from other states would in turn be reduced. In th...

  17. Future CO2 emissions and climate change from existing energy infrastructure.

    PubMed

    Davis, Steven J; Caldeira, Ken; Matthews, H Damon

    2010-09-10

    Slowing climate change requires overcoming inertia in political, technological, and geophysical systems. Of these, only geophysical warming commitment has been quantified. We estimated the commitment to future emissions and warming represented by existing carbon dioxide-emitting devices. We calculated cumulative future emissions of 496 (282 to 701 in lower- and upper-bounding scenarios) gigatonnes of CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels by existing infrastructure between 2010 and 2060, forcing mean warming of 1.3 degrees C (1.1 degrees to 1.4 degrees C) above the pre-industrial era and atmospheric concentrations of CO2 less than 430 parts per million. Because these conditions would likely avoid many key impacts of climate change, we conclude that sources of the most threatening emissions have yet to be built. However, CO2-emitting infrastructure will expand unless extraordinary efforts are undertaken to develop alternatives.

  18. Northern Hemisphere trends in carbon monoxide: effects of changing anthropogenic emissions and biomass burning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Novelli, P. C.; Petron, G.; Masarie, K.; Lang, P.; Granier, C.

    2010-12-01

    While the magnitude and direction of changes in tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) during the past century are still debated; it is most likely that there have been extended periods of increase and decrease, overlaid with much shorter lived changes. The most compelling evidence for a long-term trend in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) comes from a comparison of column measurements determined above the Swiss Alps in the early 1950s and again in the mid-1980s which suggested an increase of ~1% yr-1. Quasi-continuous spectral measurements above Europe and western Russia show increasing column abundances in the 1970s through the mid-1980s, after which CO decreased at a similar rate through the mid-1990s. Several studies have shown declines in NH CO over the past two decades. Carbon monoxide has been measured in air samples collected by the NOAA Cooperative Air Sampling Network since 1988. The results provide a spatial and temporal picture of CO in the marine boundary layer which is used to identify zonal changes. The data suggest a long-term decrease in CO in the NH, with the greatest changes occurring in the 30-90 degree zonal band. Smaller decreases were found in the low Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The primary sources of CO in the NH are roughly evenly distributed between fossil fuel combustion and industrial emissions (FF), oxidation of methane and non-CH4 hydrocarbons, and biomass burning (BB); its major sink is OH. Here we examine how changes in FF and BB emissions have impacted CO in the lower troposphere. A strong decrease in anthropogenic emissions from Annex_1 countries in the early 1990s contributed to a significant decline in its abundance. Continuing declines in their emissions during the late 1990’s and 2000’s added to the downward trend despite increasing emissions from developing nations. The NH decrease in background CO during 1990-2005 (i.e. change determined without effects of the 1998/2003 fires) compares well with FF emissions inventories. Of

  19. Rate and velocity of climate change caused by cumulative carbon emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LoPresti, Anna; Charland, Allison; Woodard, Dawn; Randerson, James; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Davis, Steven J.

    2015-09-01

    International climate mitigation efforts are focused on limiting increase in global mean temperature, which has been shown to be proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions. However, the ability of natural and human systems to successfully adapt to climatic changes depends on both the magnitude and rate of change, the latter of which will depend on how quickly a given level of cumulative emissions occurs. We show that cumulative CO2 emissions of 4620 Gt CO2 (reached in 2100 in RCP4.5 and 2057 in RCP8.5) produce globally averaged warming rates that are nearly twice as fast in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 (0.34 ± 0.08 °C per decade versus 0.19 ± 0.05 °C per decade, respectively). Similarly, the globally averaged velocity of climate change calculated according to the ‘nearest equivalent climate’ is greater by a factor of ˜2 in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5 (2.51 ± 0.67 km yr-1 versus 1.32 ± 0.39 km yr-1, respectively), despite equivalent cumulative emissions. These differences in the projected velocity of climate change represent uncertainty for ecosystems that may be unable to adapt to the faster changes. Particularly at risk are boreal forests, of which 48% are projected to experience rates of change beyond their expected adaptive capacity (i.e. >0.3 °C per decade) in RCP4.5, compared with 95% in RCP8.5. Thus, the same budget of cumulative carbon emissions may result in critically different impacts on natural and human systems, depending on the amount of time over which that budget is expended.

  20. Rate and Velocity of Climate Change Caused by Cumulative Carbon Emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, S. J.; LoPresti, A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Randerson, J. T.; Woodard, D.; Charland, A.

    2015-12-01

    International climate mitigation efforts are focused on limiting increase in global mean temperature, which has been shown to be proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions. However, the ability of natural and human systems to successfully adapt to climatic changes depends on both the magnitude and rate of change, the latter of which will depend on how quickly a given level of cumulative emissions occurs. We show that cumulative CO2 emissions of 4,620 Gt CO2 (reached in 2100 in RCP4.5 and 2057 in RCP8.5) produce globally averaged warming rates that are nearly twice as fast in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 (0.34±0.08°C per decade versus 0.19±0.05°C per decade, respectively). Similarly, the globally averaged velocity of climate change calculated according to the "nearest equivalent climate" is greater by a factor of ~2 in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5 (2.51±0.67 km y-1 versus 1.32 ± 0.39 km y-1, respectively), despite equivalent cumulative emissions. These differences in the projected velocity of climate change represent uncertainty for ecosystems that may be unable to adapt to the faster changes. Particularly at risk are boreal forests, of which 48% are projected to experience rates of change beyond their expected adaptive capacity (i.e. >0.3°C per decade) in RCP4.5, compared with 95% in RCP8.5. Thus, the same budget of cumulative carbon emissions may result in critically different impacts on natural and human systems, depending on the amount of time over which that budget is expended.

  1. Trend and uncertainty analysis of simulated climate change impacts with multiple GCMs and emission scenarios

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Impacts of climate change on hydrology, soil erosion, and wheat production during 2010-2039 at El Reno in central Oklahoma, USA, were simulated using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Projections from four GCMs (CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, and HadCM3) under three emissions scenari...

  2. 40 CFR Appendix C to Part 60 - Determination of Emission Rate Change

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 7 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Determination of Emission Rate Change C Appendix C to Part 60 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) STANDARDS OF PERFORMANCE FOR NEW STATIONARY SOURCES (CONTINUED) Pt. 60, App. C Appendix C to Part...

  3. Setting cumulative emissions targets to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change

    PubMed Central

    Zickfeld, Kirsten; Eby, Michael; Matthews, H. Damon; Weaver, Andrew J.

    2009-01-01

    Avoiding “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” requires stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Here, we present an inverse approach to coupled climate-carbon cycle modeling, which allows us to estimate the probability that any given level of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will exceed specified long-term global mean temperature targets for “dangerous anthropogenic interference,” taking into consideration uncertainties in climate sensitivity and the carbon cycle response to climate change. We show that to stabilize global mean temperature increase at 2 °C above preindustrial levels with a probability of at least 0.66, cumulative CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2500 must not exceed a median estimate of 590 petagrams of carbon (PgC) (range, 200 to 950 PgC). If the 2 °C temperature stabilization target is to be met with a probability of at least 0.9, median total allowable CO2 emissions are 170 PgC (range, −220 to 700 PgC). Furthermore, these estimates of cumulative CO2 emissions, compatible with a specified temperature stabilization target, are independent of the path taken to stabilization. Our analysis therefore supports an international policy framework aimed at avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference formulated on the basis of total allowable greenhouse gas emissions. PMID:19706489

  4. The impact of global aviation NOx emissions on tropospheric composition changes from 2005 to 2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wasiuk, D. K.; Khan, M. A. H.; Shallcross, D. E.; Lowenberg, M. H.

    2016-09-01

    The impact of aviation NOx emissions from 2005 to 2011 on the chemical composition of the atmosphere has been investigated on the basis of integrations of the 3-D global chemical and transport model, STOCHEM-CRI with the novel CRIv2-R5 chemistry scheme. A base case simulation without aircraft NOx emissions and integrations with NOx emissions from aircraft are inter-compared. The sensitivity of the global atmosphere to varying the quantity and the geographical distribution of the global annual aviation NOx emissions is assessed by performing, for the first time, a series of integrations based on changing the total mass and distribution of aircraft NOx emissions derived from air traffic movements recorded between 2005 and 2011. The emissions of NOx from the global fleet based on actual records of air traffic movements between 2005 and 2011 increased the global tropospheric annual mean burden of O3 by 1.0 Tg and decreased the global tropospheric annual mean burden of CH4 by 2.5 Tg. The net NOy and O3 production increases by 0.5% and 1%, respectively between 2005 and 2011 in total. At cruise altitude, the absolute increase in the modelled O3 mixing ratios is found to be up to 0.7 ppb between 2005 and 2011 at 25°N-50°N.

  5. Nitrogen transformations in intensive aquaculture system and its implication to climate change through nitrous oxide emission.

    PubMed

    Hu, Zhen; Lee, Jae Woo; Chandran, Kartik; Kim, Sungpyo; Sharma, Keshab; Brotto, Ariane Coelho; Khanal, Samir Kumar

    2013-02-01

    The rapid development of aquaculture could result in significant environmental concerns such as eutrophication and climate change. However, to date, very few studies have been conducted to investigate nitrogen transformations in aquaculture systems; and specifically the emission of nitrous oxide (N(2)O), which is an important greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting substance. In this study, nitrogen transformations in intensive laboratory-scale Chinese catfish (Clarias fuscus) aquaculture systems were investigated by identifying and quantifying N(2)O emissions. Results indicated that about 1.3% of the nitrogen input was emitted as N(2)O gas. Dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations and feeding rates had significant effects on N(2)O emissions. Higher N(2)O emissions were obtained in aquaculture systems with lower DO concentrations and higher feeding rates. Both nitrification and denitrification appeared to be responsible for the emissions of N(2)O. Key factors which correlated with the N(2)O emission rate in aquaculture systems were NO(2)(-), DO and total ammonia nitrogen concentrations.

  6. Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979-2012: impact of climate and land use changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stavrakou, T.; Müller, J.-F.; Bauwens, M.; De Smedt, I.; Van Roozendael, M.; Guenther, A.; Wild, M.; Xia, X.

    2013-11-01

    Due to the scarcity of observational constraints and the rapidly changing environment in East and Southeast Asia, isoprene emissions predicted by models are expected to bear substantial uncertainties. The aim of this study is to improve upon the existing bottom-up estimates, and investigate the temporal evolution of the fluxes in Asia over 1979-2012. To this purpose, we calculate the hourly emissions at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution using the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim climatology. This study incorporates (i) changes in land use, including the rapid expansion of oil palms, (ii) meteorological variability according to ERA-Interim, (iii) long-term changes in solar radiation (dimming/brightening) constrained by surface network radiation measurements, and (iv) recent experimental evidence that South Asian tropical forests are much weaker isoprene emitters than previously assumed, and on the other hand, that oil palms hold a strong isoprene emission capacity. These effects lead to a significant lowering (factor of two) in the total isoprene fluxes over the studied domain, and to emission reductions reaching a~factor of 3.5 in Southeast Asia. The bottom-up annual isoprene emissions for 2005 are estimated at 7.0, 4.8, 8.3, 2.9 Tg in China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively. Changes in temperature and solar radiation are the major drivers of the interannual variability and trend in the emissions. An annual positive flux trend of 0.2% and 0.52% is found in Asia and China, respectively, through the entire period, related to positive trend in temperature and solar radiation. The impact of oil palm expansion in Indonesia and Malaysia is to enhance the trends over that region, e.g. from 1.17% to 1.5% in 1979-2005 in Malaysia. A negative emission trend is derived in India (-0.4%), owing to the negative trend in solar radiation data associated to the strong dimming effect likely due to increasing aerosol loadings. The bottom-up emissions are evaluated

  7. An environmentally sensitive fluorescent purine nucleoside that changes emission wavelength upon hybridization.

    PubMed

    Saito, Yoshio; Suzuki, Azusa; Okada, Yuji; Yamasaka, Yuki; Nemoto, Nobukatsu; Saito, Isao

    2013-06-25

    C7-naphthylethynylated 8-aza-7-deaza-2'-deoxyguanosine (na)G was synthesized and its photophysical properties were examined. The fluorescent nucleoside exhibited solvatofluorochromic properties (Δλ(fl)(max) = 67 nm). An ODN probe containing (na)G forms a stable base pair only with C and discriminates structural changes such as mismatches and deletions by a distinct change in its emission wavelength.

  8. Gravity wave amplitudes changes observed in different airglow emissions: influence of wave breaking and observational selection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, Carsten; Wüst, Sabine; Hannawald, Patrick; Bittner, Michael

    2016-04-01

    The upper mesosphere lower thermosphere region is well known for enhanced gravity wave breaking. Airglow emissions originating in this height region provide a good possibility for detailed studies of gravity wave behavior in this altitude. Therefore, rotational temperatures and intensities of the OH(3-1), OH(4-2), OH(6-2) and O2b(0-1)-transitions recorded at the NDMC (Network for the Detection of Mesospheric Change) site Oberpfaffenhofen (48.1°N, 10.3°E), Germany are examined. First results indicate, that both significant amplitude growth from the lower (~87km) OH airglow emissions to the higher (~95km) O2 airglow emissions of more than 100% as well as strong damping can be observed. On several occasions OH- and O2-emissions show completely independent behavior - probably related to the complete breakup of a gravity wave. These amplitude changes are set into relation to emission layer height, vertical wavelength, absolute temperature and potential seasonal dependence. Observations from further NDMC sites in France, Germany and Austria are used to discuss the evolution of these waves on horizontal scales from 100km to 1000km.

  9. Air quality impacts of European wildfire emissions in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knorr, Wolfgang; Dentener, Frank; Hantson, Stijn; Jiang, Leiwen; Klimont, Zbigniew; Arneth, Almut

    2016-05-01

    Wildfires are not only a threat to human property and a vital element of many ecosystems, but also an important source of air pollution. In this study, we first review the available evidence for a past or possible future climate-driven increase in wildfire emissions in Europe. We then introduce an ensemble of model simulations with a coupled wildfire-dynamic-ecosystem model, which we combine with published spatial maps of both wildfire and anthropogenic emissions of several major air pollutants to arrive at air pollutant emission projections for several time slices during the 21st century. The results indicate moderate wildfire-driven emission increases until 2050, but there is a possibility of large increases until the last decades of this century at high levels of climate change. We identify southern and north-eastern Europe as potential areas where wildfires may surpass anthropogenic pollution sources during the summer months. Under a scenario of high levels of climate change (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP, 8.5), emissions from wildfires in central and northern Portugal and possibly southern Italy and along the west coast of the Balkan peninsula are projected to reach levels that could affect annual mean particulate matter concentrations enough to be relevant for meeting WHO air quality targets.

  10. Positive future climate feedback due to changes in oceanic DMS emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tjiputra, Jerry; Six, Katharina; Seland, Øyvind; Heinze, Christoph

    2015-04-01

    The global ocean is the largest natural source of dimethylsulphide (DMS) gas to the atmosphere. DMS is produced by phytoplankton and is released to the surface ocean if cells are degraded. Once it enters the atmosphere, it might contribute to the nucleation particles important for cloud formation, which then effect the Earth's radiation budget and climate. Future global warming and ocean acidification is projected to alter marine DMS production and emission. However the none of the models assessed in the last IPCC report includes the DMS-climate feedback. Recent study indicated that under high CO2 emissions future, the oceanic DMS emission is projected to decrease by 12 to 24% by the end of this century, potentially leading to an equilibrium temperature response of 0.1K to 0.76K. Here, for the first time using a fully interactive Earth system model including a microphysical aerosol module with sulfur chemistry, we perform simulations on future climate projection with coupled DMS feedback. Under the highest pH sensitivity, our simulation shows that projected DMS production and emission decrease relative to the preindustrial state by 50% and 36%, respectively toward the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario. The largest emission reduction is simulated in the Southern Ocean. On contrast, emissions at polar latitudes increase owing to the sea ice retreat. This large change in marine sulfur emisson leads to an additional global warming of 0.3K relative to the reference simulation without DMS-climate feedback at the end of the 21st century. Both simulations also produce similar trajectories in atmospheric CO2 concentration, consistent with little change in the cumulative oceanic and terrestrial carbon sinks.

  11. Acoustic emission from single point machining: Part 2, Signal changes with tool wear

    SciTech Connect

    Heiple, C.R.; Carpenter, S.H.; Armentrout, D.L.; McManigle, A.P.

    1989-01-01

    Changes in acoustic emission signal characteristics with tool wear were monitored during single point machining of 4340 steel and Ti-6Al-4V heat treated to several strength levels, 606l-T6 aluminum, 304 stainless steel, 17-4PH stainless steel, 410 stainless steel, lead, and teflon. No signal characteristic changed in the same way with tool wear for all materials tested. A single change in a particular AE signal characteristic with tool wear valid for all materials probably does not exist. Nevertheless, changes in various signal characteristic with wear for a given material may be sufficient to be used to monitor tool wear.

  12. Acoustic emission from single point machining: Part 2, Signal changes with tool wear. Revised

    SciTech Connect

    Heiple, C.R.; Carpenter, S.H.; Armentrout, D.L.; McManigle, A.P.

    1989-12-31

    Changes in acoustic emission signal characteristics with tool wear were monitored during single point machining of 4340 steel and Ti-6Al-4V heat treated to several strength levels, 606l-T6 aluminum, 304 stainless steel, 17-4PH stainless steel, 410 stainless steel, lead, and teflon. No signal characteristic changed in the same way with tool wear for all materials tested. A single change in a particular AE signal characteristic with tool wear valid for all materials probably does not exist. Nevertheless, changes in various signal characteristic with wear for a given material may be sufficient to be used to monitor tool wear.

  13. Response of Arctic Temperature to Changes in Emissions of Short-Lived Climate Forcers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sand, M.; Berntsen, T.; von Salzen, K.; Flanner, M.; Langner, J.; Victor, D. G.

    2014-12-01

    There is growing scientific and political interest in the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions on the Arctic. Over recent decades temperatures in the Arctic have increased twice the global rate, largely due to ice albedo and temperature feedbacks. While deep cuts in global CO2 emissions are required to slow this warming, there is also growing interest in the potential for reducing short lived climate forcers (SLCFs). Politically, action on SLCFs may be particularly promising because the benefits of mitigation appear promptly and there are large co-benefits in terms of improved air quality. This study is the first to systematically quantify the Arctic climate impact of regional SLCF emissions, taking into account BC, sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile hydrocarbons (VOC), organic carbon (OC) and tropospheric ozone, their transport processes and transformations in the atmosphere. Using several chemical transport models we perform detailed radiative forcing calculations from emissions of these species. Geographically we separate emissions into seven source regions that correspond with the national groupings of the Arctic Council, the leading body organizing international policy in the region (the United States, Canada, the Nordic countries, the rest of Europe, Russia, East and South Asia, and the rest of the world). We look at six main sectors known to account for [nearly all] of these emissions: households (domestic), energy/industry/waste, transport, agricultural fires, grass/forest fires, and gas flaring. We find that the largest Arctic warming source is from emissions within the Asian nations. However, the Arctic is most sensitive, per unit mass emitted, to SLCFs emissions from a small number of activities within the Arctic nations themselves. A stringent, but technically feasible SLCFs mitigation scenario, phased in from 2015 through 2030, can cut warming by 0.2 K in 2050.

  14. Response of Arctic Temperature to Changes in Emissions of Short-Lived Climate Forcers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sand, M.; Berntsen, T.; von Salzen, K.; Flanner, M.; Langner, J.; Victor, D. G.

    2015-12-01

    There is growing scientific and political interest in the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions on the Arctic. Over recent decades temperatures in the Arctic have increased twice the global rate, largely due to ice albedo and temperature feedbacks. While deep cuts in global CO2 emissions are required to slow this warming, there is also growing interest in the potential for reducing short lived climate forcers (SLCFs). Politically, action on SLCFs may be particularly promising because the benefits of mitigation appear promptly and there are large co-benefits in terms of improved air quality. This study is the first to systematically quantify the Arctic climate impact of regional SLCF emissions, taking into account BC, sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile hydrocarbons (VOC), organic carbon (OC) and tropospheric ozone, their transport processes and transformations in the atmosphere. Using several chemical transport models we perform detailed radiative forcing calculations from emissions of these species. Geographically we separate emissions into seven source regions that correspond with the national groupings of the Arctic Council, the leading body organizing international policy in the region (the United States, Canada, the Nordic countries, the rest of Europe, Russia, East and South Asia, and the rest of the world). We look at six main sectors known to account for [nearly all] of these emissions: households (domestic), energy/industry/waste, transport, agricultural fires, grass/forest fires, and gas flaring. We find that the largest Arctic warming source is from emissions within the Asian nations. However, the Arctic is most sensitive, per unit mass emitted, to SLCFs emissions from a small number of activities within the Arctic nations themselves. A stringent, but technically feasible SLCFs mitigation scenario, phased in from 2015 through 2030, can cut warming by 0.2 K in 2050.

  15. Air pollution response to changing weather and power plant emissions in the eastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bloomer, Bryan Jaye

    Air pollution in the eastern United States causes human sickness and death as well as damage to crops and materials. NOX emission reduction is observed to improve air quality. Effectively reducing pollution in the future requires understanding the connections between smog, precursor emissions, weather, and climate change. Numerical models predict global warming will exacerbate smog over the next 50 years. My analysis of 21 years of CASTNET observations quantifies a climate change penalty. I calculate, for data collected prior to 2002, a climate penalty factor of ˜3.3 ppb O3/°C across the power plant dominated receptor regions in the rural, eastern U.S. Recent reductions in NOX emissions decreased the climate penalty factor to ˜2.2 ppb O3/°C. Prior to 1995, power plant emissions of CO2, SO2, and NOX were estimated with fuel sampling and analysis methods. Currently, emissions are measured with continuous monitoring equipment (CEMS) installed directly in stacks. My comparison of the two methods show CO 2 and SO2 emissions are ˜5% lower when inferred from fuel sampling; greater differences are found for NOX emissions. CEMS are the method of choice for emission inventories and commodity trading and should be the standard against which other methods are evaluated for global greenhouse gas trading policies. I used CEMS data and applied chemistry transport modeling to evaluate improvements in air quality observed by aircraft during the North American electrical blackout of 2003. An air quality model produced substantial reductions in O3, but not as much as observed. The study highlights weaknesses in the model as commonly used for evaluating a single day event and suggests areas for further investigation. A new analysis and visualization method quantifies local-daily to hemispheric-seasonal scale relationships between weather and air pollution, confirming improved air quality despite increasing temperatures across the eastern U.S. Climate penalty factors indicate

  16. The effects of potential changes in United States beef production on global grazing systems and greenhouse gas emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J.; Carriquiry, Miguel; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Martin, Pamela A.; Mulik, Kranti

    2012-06-01

    We couple a global agricultural production and trade model with a greenhouse gas model to assess leakage associated with modified beef production in the United States. The effects on emissions from agricultural production (i.e., methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock and crop management) as well as from land-use change, especially grazing system, are assessed. We find that a reduction of US beef production induces net carbon emissions from global land-use change ranging from 37 to 85 kg CO2-equivalent per kg of beef annualized over 20 years. The increase in emissions is caused by an inelastic domestic demand as well as more land-intensive cattle production systems internationally. Changes in livestock production systems such as increasing stocking rate could partially offset emission increases from pasture expansion. In addition, net emissions from enteric fermentation increase because methane emissions per kilogram of beef tend to be higher globally.

  17. Impacts of population growth, urbanisation and sanitation changes on global human Cryptosporidium emissions to surface water.

    PubMed

    Hofstra, Nynke; Vermeulen, Lucie C

    2016-10-01

    Cryptosporidium is a pathogenic protozoan parasite and is a leading cause of diarrhoea worldwide. The concentration of Cryptosporidium in the surface water is a determinant for probability of exposure and the risk of disease. Surface water concentrations are expected to change with population growth, urbanisation and changes in sanitation. The objective of this paper is to assess the importance of future changes in population, urbanisation and sanitation on global human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface water. The GloWPa-Crypto H1 (the Global Waterborne Pathogen model for Human Cryptosporidium emissions version 1) model is presented and run for 2010 and with scenarios for 2050. The new scenarios are based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) developed for the climate community. The scenarios comprise assumptions on sanitation changes in line with the storylines and population and urbanisation changes from the SSPs. In SSP1 population growth is limited, urbanisation large and sanitation and waste water treatment strongly improve. SSP1* is the same as SSP1, but waste water treatment does not improve. SSP3 sees large population growth, moderate urbanisation and sanitation and waste water treatment fractions that are the same as in 2010. Total global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface water for 2010 are estimated to be 1.6×10(17) oocysts per year, with hotspots in the most urbanised parts of the world. In 2050 emissions are expected to decrease by 24% or increase by 52% and 70% for SSP1, SSP3 and SSP1* respectively. The emissions increase in all scenarios for countries in the Middle East and Africa (MAF) region, while emissions in large parts in Europe decrease in scenarios SSP1 and SSP3. Improving sanitation by connecting the population to sewers, should be combined with waste water treatment, otherwise (SSP1*) emissions in 2050 are expected to be much larger than in a situation with strong population growth and slow development of safe water and

  18. Health Expenditure Trends in OECD Countries, 1990-2001

    PubMed Central

    Huber, Manfred; Orosz, Eva

    2003-01-01

    This article presents data on health care spending for 30 OECD countries from OECD Health Data 2003, the latest edition of OECD's annual data collection on health systems across industrialized countries. OECD data show health care expenditures as a proportion of gross domestic product at an all-time high, due to both increased expenditures and overall economic slowdown. The article discusses similarities and differences across countries in how health care expenditures are funded and how the health care dollar is spent among types of services. PMID:14997690

  19. Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, James M.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Boulton, Chris A.; Clark, Robin T.; Harris, Glen R.; Lowe, Jason A.; Sexton, David M. H.

    2014-11-01

    We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half

  20. Detection of nanoparticle changes in nanocomposite active sample using random laser emission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shojaie, Ehsan; Madanipour, Khosro

    2017-06-01

    In this work, a simple method is introduced for estimating the number of the nanoparticles in an active sample based on random laser theory. The sample includes nanoparticles which are distributed randomly. Because of multiple scattering random laser action can occurs when the sample is pumped optically. Here, one-dimensional random laser system is considered and the sample changes are added to the system by changing the number or size of layer. The spectral emission of the sample is calculated by transfer matrix method. The statistical behavior of output emission spectrum is achieved by calculating the averaged spectrum from many random realizations. The results of simulation shows that changes in the number of nanoparticles (or in the averaged size) can be estimated from the statistical random laser output emission and averaged lasing wavelength. This proposed method is fast, non-contact, and needs to a simple setup. Also, it can be used for biological and chemical medium for analysis of different parameters which effect on the spectral random emission.

  1. Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979-2012 : impact of climate and land use changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Müller, Jean-Francois; Bauwens, Maite; Guenther, Alex; De Smedt, Isabelle; Van Roozendael, Michel

    2014-05-01

    Due to the scarcity of observational contraints and the rapidly changing environment in East and Southeast Asia, isoprene emissions predicted by models are expected to bear substantial uncertainties. This study aims at improving upon current bottom-up estimates, and investigate the temporal evolution of isoprene fluxes in Asia over 1979-2012. For that, we use the MEGAN model and incorporate (i) changes in land use, including the rapid expansion of oil palms, (ii) meteorological variability, (iii) long-term changes in solar radiation constrained by surface network measurements, and (iv) recent experimental evidence that South Asian forests are much weaker isoprene emitters than previously assumed. These effects lead to a significant reduction of the total isoprene fluxes over the studied domain compared to the standard simulation. The bottom-up emissions are evaluated using satellite-based emission estimates derived from inverse modelling constrained by GOME-2/MetOp-A formaldehyde columns through 2007-2012. The top-down estimates support our assumptions and confirm the lower isoprene emission rate in tropical forests of Indonesia and Malaysia.

  2. Climate change and emissions impacts on atmospheric PAH transport to the Arctic.

    PubMed

    Friedman, Carey L; Zhang, Yanxu; Selin, Noelle E

    2014-01-01

    We investigate effects of 2000-2050 emissions and climate changes on the atmospheric transport of three polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs): phenanthrene (PHE), pyrene (PYR), and benzo[a]pyrene (BaP). We use the GEOS-Chem model coupled to meteorology from a general circulation model and focus on impacts to northern hemisphere midlatitudes and the Arctic. We project declines in anthropogenic emissions (up to 20%) and concentrations (up to 37%), with particle-bound PAHs declining more, and greater declines in midlatitudes versus the Arctic. Climate change causes relatively minor increases in midlatitude concentrations for the more volatile PHE and PYR (up to 4%) and decreases (3%) for particle-bound BaP. In the Arctic, all PAHs decline slightly under future climate (up to 2%). Overall, we observe a small 2050 "climate penalty" for volatile PAHs and "climate benefit" for particle-bound PAHs. The degree of penalty or benefit depends on competition between deposition and surface-to-air fluxes of previously deposited PAHs. Particles and temperature have greater impacts on future transport than oxidants, with particle changes alone accounting for 15% of BaP decline under 2050 emissions. Higher temperatures drive increasing surface-to-air fluxes that cause PHE and PYR climate penalties. Simulations suggest ratios of more-to-less volatile species can be used to diagnose signals of climate versus emissions and that these signals are best observed in the Arctic.

  3. The sum of the parts: can we really reduce carbon emissions through individual behaviour change?

    PubMed

    Reynolds, Lucy

    2010-01-01

    Individuals are increasingly being urged to 'do their bit' in the fight against climate change, with governments and pro-environmentalists insisting that the collective impact of small behaviour changes will result in a meaningful reduction in global carbon emissions. The following paper considers this debate, as well as offering personal contributions from two leading environmentalists: Dr Doug McKenzie-Mohr, environmental psychologist and author of Fostering Sustainable Behavior: Community-Based Social Marketing; and Dr Tom Crompton, change strategist for WWF and co-author of Meeting Environmental Challenges: The Role of Human Identity, who argues for the role of intrinsic value systems in achieving sustainable behaviour change. As well as considering the responsibility of the individual in mitigating climate change, the paper introduces the discipline of social marketing as an effective tool for facilitating individual behaviour change, drawing on evidence from the field to recommend the key characteristics of effective behaviour change programmes.

  4. The potential of exceptional climate change education on individual lifetime carbon emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cordero, E.; Centeno, D.; Todd, A. M.

    2016-12-01

    Strategies to mitigate climate change often center on clean technologies such as electric vehicles and solar panels, while the mitigation potential of a quality educational experience is rarely discussed. We investigate the role of education on individual carbon emissions using case studies from an intensive one-year university general education course focused on climate science and solutions. Results from this analysis demonstrate that students who completed the university course had significantly lower carbon emissions compared to a control group. If such an educational experience could be expanded throughout the United States, we estimate that education could be as valuable a climate change mitigation method as improving the fuel efficiency of automobiles. Relatedly, we also report on a new approach to apply real-time cloud based data to track the environmental impact of students during their participation in educational climate change programs. Such a tool would help illustrate the potential of education as a viable carbon mitigation strategy.

  5. Carbon emissions caused by land-use change in tropical forests of Borneo island

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirata, R.; Ito, A.

    2016-12-01

    Tropical forests in Borneo island have disappeared by 1.5%/year during the last decade. Land-use changes have been mainly caused by plantation and wild fire in Borneo island. We estimated regional scale carbon balance of Borneo island by using a terrestrial ecosystem model, VISIT. We took into account a land-use change map developed by using MODIS data. The land-use change map includes when wild fire occurred and when artificial trees (e.g. oil palm) were planted. Southern part of Borneo island was strongly affected by wild fire. Especially in 2002, 2006 and 2015, wild fire was spread widely because of ENSO. Carbon emissions in these years were larger than other year. Carbon emission in northern part of Borneo was mainly caused by conversion from forest to oil palm.

  6. Carbon emissions from U.S. ethylene production under climate change policies.

    PubMed

    Ruth, Matthias; Amato, Anthony D; Davidsdottir, Brynhildur

    2002-01-15

    This paper presents the results from a dynamic computer model of U.S. ethylene production, designed to explore implications of alternative climate change policies for the industry's energy use and carbon emissions profiles. The model applies to the aggregate ethylene industry but distinguishes its main cracker types, fuels used as feedstocks and for process energy, as well as the industry's capital vintage structure and vintage-specific efficiencies. Results indicate that policies which increase the cost of carbon of process energy-such as carbon taxes or carbon permit systems-are relatively blunt instruments for cutting carbon emissions from ethylene production. In contrast, policies directly affecting the relative efficiencies of new to old capital-such as R&D stimuli or accelerated depreciation schedules-may be more effective in leveraging the industry's potential for carbon emissions reductions.

  7. Declining ozone exposure of European vegetation under climate change and reduced precursor emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klingberg, J.; Engardt, M.; Karlsson, P. E.; Langner, J.; Pleijel, H.

    2014-10-01

    The impacts of changes in ozone precursor emissions as well as climate change on the future ozone exposure of the vegetation in Europe were investigated. The ozone exposure is expressed as AOT40 (Accumulated exposure Over a Threshold of 40 ppb O3) as well as PODY (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose above a threshold Y). A new method is suggested to express how the length of the period during the year when coniferous and evergreen trees are sensitive to ozone might be affected by climate change. Ozone precursor emission changes from the RCP4.5 scenario were combined with climate simulations based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario and used as input to the Eulerian Chemistry Transport Model MATCH from which projections of ozone concentrations were derived. The ozone exposure of vegetation over Europe expressed as AOT40 was projected to be substantially reduced between the periods 1990-2009 and 2040-2059 to levels which are well below critical levels used for vegetation in the EU directive 2008/50/EC as well as for crops and forests used in the LRTAP convention, despite that the future climate resulted in prolonged yearly ozone sensitive periods. The reduction in AOT40 was mainly driven by the emission reductions, not changes in the climate. For the toxicologically more relevant POD1 index the projected reductions were smaller, but still significant. The values for POD1 for the time period 2040-2059 were not projected to decrease to levels which are below critical levels for forest trees, represented by Norway spruce. This study shows that substantial reductions of ozone precursor emissions have the potential to strongly reduce the future risk for ozone effects on the European vegetation, even if concurrent climate change promotes ozone formation.

  8. Changes in soil aggregation and dust emission potential in response to aeolian processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    swet, Nitzan; Katra, Itzhak

    2016-04-01

    Aeolian (wind) dust emission has high environmental and socioeconomic significances due to loss of natural soil and air pollution. Dust emission involves complex interactions between the airflow and the soil surface. The soil aggregates were dust particles are held determine the topsoil erodibility in aeolian erosion. Although the key role of soil aggregation in dust emission mechanisms, information on changes in soil aggregate size distribution (ASD) due to aeolian erosion is lucking. This study is focused on quantitative ASD analyses before and after aeolian processes (saltation). Aeolian experiments and soil analyses were conducted on semiarid loess topsoils with different initial conditions of aggregation. The results show that saltation rates and PM emissions depend on the initial ASD and shear velocity. In all initial soil conditions, the content of aggregates at saltator-sized 63-250 μm was increased by 10-34 % following erosion of macro-aggregates > 500 μm. It revealed that the aggregate-saltator production increases with the shear velocity (up to 0.61 m s-1) for soils with available macro-aggregates. The findings highlight the dynamics in soil aggregation in response to aeolian transport and therefore its significance for determining the mechanisms of dust emission from soil aggregates.

  9. Impacts of Future Climate and Emission Changes on U.S. Air Quality

    SciTech Connect

    Penrod, Ashley; Zhang, Yang; Wang, K.; Wu, Shiang Yuh; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2014-06-01

    Changes in climate and emissions will affect future air quality. In this work, simulations of present (2001-2005) and future (2026-2030) regional air quality are conducted with the newly released CMAQ version 5.0 to examine the individual and combined impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the U.S. Current (2001-2005) meteorological and chemical predictions are evaluated against observational data to assess the model’s capability in reproducing the seasonal differences. Overall, WRF and CMAQ perform reasonably well. Increased temperatures (up to 3.18 °C) and decreased ventilation (up to 157 m in planetary boundary layer height) are found in both future winter and summer, with more prominent changes in winter. Increases in future temperatures result in increased isoprene and terpene emissions in winter and summer, driving the increase in maximum 8-h average O3 (up to 5.0 ppb) over the eastern U.S. in winter while decreases in NOx emissions drive the decrease in O3 over most of the U.S. in summer. Future concentrations of PM2.5 in winter and summer and many of its components including organic matter in winter, ammonium and nitrate in summer, and sulfate in winter and summer, decrease due to decreases in primary anthropogenic emissions and the concentrations of secondary anthropogenic pollutants and increased precipitation in winter. Future winter and summer dry and wet deposition fluxes are spatially variable and increase with increasing surface resistance and precipitation (e.g., NH4+ and NO3- dry and wet deposition fluxes increase in winter over much of the U.S.), respectively, and decrease with a decrease in ambient particulate concentrations (e.g., SO42- dry and wet deposition fluxes decrease over the eastern U.S. in summer and winter). Sensitivity simulations show that anthropogenic emission projections dominate over changes in climate in their impacts on the U.S. air quality in the near future. Changes

  10. Changes in US background ozone due to global anthropogenic emissions from 1970 to 2020

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Jung, Jaegun; Kumar, Naresh; Yarwood, Greg

    2016-09-01

    Estimates of North American and US Background (NAB and USB) ozone (O3) are critical in setting and implementing the US National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and therefore influence population exposure to O3 across the US. NAB is defined as the O3 concentration in the absence of anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions from North America whereas USB excludes anthropogenic emissions inside the US alone. NAB and USB vary geographically and with time of year. Analyses of O3 trends at rural locations near the west coast suggest that background O3 is rising in response to increasing non-US emissions. As the O3 NAAQS is lowered, rising background O3 would make attaining the NAAQS more difficult. Most studies of changing US background O3 have inferred trends from observations whereas air quality management decisions tend to rely on models. Thus, it is important that the models used to develop O3 management strategies are able to represent the changes in background O3 in order to increase confidence that air quality management strategies will succeed. We focus on how changing global emissions influence USB rather than the effects of inter-annual meteorological variation or long-term climate change. We use a regional model (CAMx) nested within a global model (GEOS-Chem) to refine our grid resolution over high terrain in the western US and near US borders where USB tends to be higher. We determine USB from CAMx simulations that exclude US anthropogenic emissions. Over five decades, from 1970 to 2020, estimated USB for the annual fourth highest maximum daily 8-h average O3 (H4MDA8) in the western US increased from mostly in the range of 40-55 ppb to 45-60 ppb, but remained below 45 ppb in the eastern US. USB increases in the southwestern US are consistent with rising emissions in Asia and Mexico. USB decreases in the northeast US after 1990 follow declining Canadian emissions. Our results show that the USB increases both for the top 30 MDA8 days and the H4MDA8 (the former

  11. Simulating and Analyzing Long-Term Changes in Emissions, Air Quality, Aerosol Feedback Effects and Human Health

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation covers work performed by the authors to characterize changes in emissions over the 1990 – 2010 time period, quantify the effects of these emission changes on air quality and aerosol/radiation feedbacks using both observations and model simulations, and fin...

  12. Simulating and Analyzing Long-Term Changes in Emissions, Air Quality, Aerosol Feedback Effects and Human Health

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation covers work performed by the authors to characterize changes in emissions over the 1990 – 2010 time period, quantify the effects of these emission changes on air quality and aerosol/radiation feedbacks using both observations and model simulations, and fin...

  13. Impacts of Land Use Change on Energy Usage and Ghg Emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeyachandran, I.; Eltrop, L.; Jenssen, T.; Marathe, S. D.

    2014-12-01

    Urbanization has a profound impact on landscape modification and subsequent impacts on energy usage and associated Green House Gas (GHG) emissions. In this paper, a methodology to assess the impact of land use change on energy demand and Green House Gas emissions using remote sensing data is presented. The methodology development was carried out using region of Stuttgart, Germany as the case study for the time period of 1990 to 2006. The first step involved using Corine land cover corresponding to the years 1990, 2000 and 2006 in conjunction with the administrative boundary map of the region of Stuttgart to assess the land use change from 1990 to 2006. The second step of the methodology involved using ATKIS building data of 2004 in conjunction with the land use data of 1990, and 2000 to identify the buildings in 1990 and 2000 and assess the land use conversion to built areas due to urbanization. Also the building types were identified, and the energy usage for heating and cooling was modeled using local guidelines. As the final step, the GHG emissions associated with heating and energy demand was estimated for the years 1990, 2000 and 2004 using the empirical relation set by Öko-Institute (2011). The results of the study indicate that there has been a significant increase in urban residential built surfaces (17%) and decrease in urban greenery, forest and agricultural areas during the time period of 1990 to 2004. The increase in residential built surfaces has resulted in an increase of electricity and heating demand and a subsequent increase in GHG emissions(14%). The methodology presented in this paper brings forth the use of remote sensing to estimate and predict GHG emissions resulting from land use changes.

  14. Long-term changes in Jovian synchrotron radio emission - Intrinsic variations or effects of viewing geometry?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hood, Lon L.

    1993-01-01

    Possible causes of the observed long-term variation of Jovian synchrotron radio emission, including both intrinsic changes in the Jovian radiation belts and apparent changes due to variations in the Jovigraphic declination of the earth, D sub E, are investigated. An increase in diffusion rate with other parameters held constant results in an inward displacement of the peak emission radial distance that is not observed. Effects of viewing geometry changes are examined. The possible importance of such effects is suggested by a correlation between the total decimetric radio flux and D sub E, which varies between -3.3 and +3.3 deg during one Jovian orbital period. Because the Jovian central meridian longitudes where the magnetic latitude passes through zero during a given Jovian rotation change substantially with D sub E and since significant longitudinal asymmetries exist in both the volume emissivity and the latitudinal profile of the beam, the total intensity should be at least a partial function of D sub E.

  15. Simulated carbon emissions from land-use change are substantially enhanced by accounting for agricultural management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pugh, T. A. M.; Arneth, A.; Olin, S.; Ahlström, A.; Bayer, A. D.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Lindeskog, M.; Schurgers, G.

    2015-12-01

    It is over three decades since a large terrestrial carbon sink (ST) was first reported. The magnitude of the net sink is now relatively well known, and its importance for dampening atmospheric CO2 accumulation, and hence climate change, widely recognised. But the contributions of underlying processes are not well defined, particularly the role of emissions from land-use change (ELUC) versus the biospheric carbon uptake (SL; ST = SL - ELUC). One key aspect of the interplay of ELUC and SL is the role of agricultural processes in land-use change emissions, which has not yet been clearly quantified at the global scale. Here we assess the effect of representing agricultural land management in a dynamic global vegetation model. Accounting for harvest, grazing and tillage resulted in cumulative ELUC since 1850 ca. 70% larger than in simulations ignoring these processes, but also changed the timescale over which these emissions occurred and led to underestimations of the carbon sequestered by possible future reforestation actions. The vast majority of Earth system models in the recent IPCC Fifth Assessment Report omit these processes, suggesting either an overestimation in their present-day ST, or an underestimation of SL, of up to 1.0 Pg C a-1. Management processes influencing crop productivity per se are important for food supply, but were found to have little influence on ELUC.

  16. Probing Transient Valence Orbital Changes with Picosecond Valence-to-Core X-ray Emission Spectroscopy

    DOE PAGES

    March, Anne Marie; Assefa, Tadesse A.; Boemer, Christina; ...

    2017-01-17

    Here we probe the dynamics of valence electrons in photoexcited [Fe(terpy)2]2+ in solution to gain deeper insight into the Fe-ligand bond changes. We use hard X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES), which combines element specificity and high penetration with sensitivity to orbital structure, making it a powerful technique for molecular studies in a wide variety of environments. A picosecond-time-resolved measurement of the complete Is X-ray emission spectrum captures the transient photoinduced changes and includes the weak valence-to-core (vtc) emission lines that correspond to transitions from occupied valence orbitals to the nascent core-hole. Vtc-XES offers particular insight into the molecular orbitals directly involvedmore » in the light-driven dynamics; a change in the metal-ligand orbital overlap results in an intensity reduction and a blue energy shift in agreement with our theoretical calculations and more subtle features at the highest energies reflect changes in the frontier orbital populations.« less

  17. Probing Transient Valence Orbital Changes with Picosecond Valence-to-Core X-ray Emission Spectroscopy

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    We probe the dynamics of valence electrons in photoexcited [Fe(terpy)2]2+ in solution to gain deeper insight into the Fe–ligand bond changes. We use hard X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES), which combines element specificity and high penetration with sensitivity to orbital structure, making it a powerful technique for molecular studies in a wide variety of environments. A picosecond-time-resolved measurement of the complete 1s X-ray emission spectrum captures the transient photoinduced changes and includes the weak valence-to-core (vtc) emission lines that correspond to transitions from occupied valence orbitals to the nascent core-hole. Vtc-XES offers particular insight into the molecular orbitals directly involved in the light-driven dynamics; a change in the metal–ligand orbital overlap results in an intensity reduction and a blue energy shift in agreement with our theoretical calculations and more subtle features at the highest energies reflect changes in the frontier orbital populations. PMID:28580048

  18. Mitigating methane emission from paddy soil with rice-straw biochar amendment under projected climate change

    PubMed Central

    Han, Xingguo; Sun, Xue; Wang, Cheng; Wu, Mengxiong; Dong, Da; Zhong, Ting; Thies, Janice E.; Wu, Weixiang

    2016-01-01

    Elevated global temperatures and increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere associated with climate change will exert profound effects on rice cropping systems, particularly on their greenhouse gas emitting potential. Incorporating biochar into paddy soil has been shown previously to reduce methane (CH4) emission from paddy rice under ambient temperature and CO2. We examined the ability of rice straw-derived biochar to reduce CH4 emission from paddy soil under elevated temperature and CO2 concentrations expected in the future. Adding biochar to paddy soil reduced CH4 emission under ambient conditions and significantly reduced emissions by 39.5% (ranging from 185.4 mg kg−1 dry weight soil, dws season−1 to 112.2 mg kg−1 dws season−1) under simultaneously elevated temperature and CO2. Reduced CH4 release was mainly attributable to the decreased activity of methanogens along with the increased CH4 oxidation activity and pmoA gene abundance of methanotrophs. Our findings highlight the valuable services of biochar amendment for CH4 control from paddy soil in a future that will be shaped by climate change. PMID:27090814

  19. Mitigating methane emission from paddy soil with rice-straw biochar amendment under projected climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Xingguo; Sun, Xue; Wang, Cheng; Wu, Mengxiong; Dong, Da; Zhong, Ting; Thies, Janice E.; Wu, Weixiang

    2016-04-01

    Elevated global temperatures and increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere associated with climate change will exert profound effects on rice cropping systems, particularly on their greenhouse gas emitting potential. Incorporating biochar into paddy soil has been shown previously to reduce methane (CH4) emission from paddy rice under ambient temperature and CO2. We examined the ability of rice straw-derived biochar to reduce CH4 emission from paddy soil under elevated temperature and CO2 concentrations expected in the future. Adding biochar to paddy soil reduced CH4 emission under ambient conditions and significantly reduced emissions by 39.5% (ranging from 185.4 mg kg‑1 dry weight soil, dws season‑1 to 112.2 mg kg‑1 dws season‑1) under simultaneously elevated temperature and CO2. Reduced CH4 release was mainly attributable to the decreased activity of methanogens along with the increased CH4 oxidation activity and pmoA gene abundance of methanotrophs. Our findings highlight the valuable services of biochar amendment for CH4 control from paddy soil in a future that will be shaped by climate change.

  20. Transformative Reduction of Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Opportunities for Change in Technologies and Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Vimmerstedt, Laura; Brown, Austin; Newes, Emily; Markel, Tony; Schroeder, Alex; Zhang, Yimin; Chipman, Peter; Johnson, Shawn

    2015-04-30

    The transportation sector is changing, influenced by concurrent, ongoing, dynamic trends that could dramatically affect the future energy landscape, including effects on the potential for greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Battery cost reductions and improved performance coupled with a growing number of electric vehicle model offerings are enabling greater battery electric vehicle market penetration, and advances in fuel cell technology and decreases in hydrogen production costs are leading to initial fuel cell vehicle offerings. Radically more efficient vehicles based on both conventional and new drivetrain technologies reduce greenhouse gas emissions per vehicle-mile. Net impacts also depend on the energy sources used for propulsion, and these are changing with increased use of renewable energy and unconventional fossil fuel resources. Connected and automated vehicles are emerging for personal and freight transportation systems and could increase use of low- or non-emitting technologies and systems; however, the net effects of automation on greenhouse gas emissions are uncertain. The longstanding trend of an annual increase in transportation demand has reversed for personal vehicle miles traveled in recent years, demonstrating the possibility of lower-travel future scenarios. Finally, advanced biofuel pathways have continued to develop, highlighting low-carbon and in some cases carbon-negative fuel pathways. We discuss the potential for transformative reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions through these emerging transportation-sector technologies and trends and present a Clean Transportation Sector Initiative scenario for such reductions, which are summarized in Table ES-1.

  1. Mitigating methane emission from paddy soil with rice-straw biochar amendment under projected climate change.

    PubMed

    Han, Xingguo; Sun, Xue; Wang, Cheng; Wu, Mengxiong; Dong, Da; Zhong, Ting; Thies, Janice E; Wu, Weixiang

    2016-04-19

    Elevated global temperatures and increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere associated with climate change will exert profound effects on rice cropping systems, particularly on their greenhouse gas emitting potential. Incorporating biochar into paddy soil has been shown previously to reduce methane (CH4) emission from paddy rice under ambient temperature and CO2. We examined the ability of rice straw-derived biochar to reduce CH4 emission from paddy soil under elevated temperature and CO2 concentrations expected in the future. Adding biochar to paddy soil reduced CH4 emission under ambient conditions and significantly reduced emissions by 39.5% (ranging from 185.4 mg kg(-1) dry weight soil, dws season(-1) to 112.2 mg kg(-1) dws season(-1)) under simultaneously elevated temperature and CO2. Reduced CH4 release was mainly attributable to the decreased activity of methanogens along with the increased CH4 oxidation activity and pmoA gene abundance of methanotrophs. Our findings highlight the valuable services of biochar amendment for CH4 control from paddy soil in a future that will be shaped by climate change.

  2. Decadal Changes in Ozone and Emissions in Central California and Current Issues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanrikulu, S.; Beaver, S.; Soong, S.; Tran, C.; Cordova, J.; Palazoglu, A.

    2011-12-01

    The relationships among ozone, emissions, and meteorology are very complex in central California, and must be well studied and understood in order to facilitate better air quality planning. Factors significantly impacting changes in emissions such as economic and population growth, and adopted emission controls make the matter even more complex. Here we review the history of ozone pollution in central California since the 1970s to plan for the future. Since the 1970s, changes in emissions have been accompanied by likewise dramatic changes in region-to-region differences in air quality. We focus on the coastal San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and the inland San Joaquin Valley (SJV). In the 1970s, the SFBA population was approaching 5 million people while the considerably larger and more rural SJV population remained below 2 million. The SFBA population was mostly confined to coastal locations. Peak ozone levels occurred mostly around the population centers and especially over the Bay itself. Hourly average ozone levels routinely approached 160 ppb. These high ozone levels promoted regulations under which SFBA emissions were continuously reduced through the present. By the 1990s, SFBA emissions had been reduced considerably despite the region's population growing to around 6 million. Relative to the 1970s, in 1990s the SFBA had lower peak ozone levels that were shifted to inland locations where much of the population growth was occurring. The SFBA still exceeded the federal 1-hour standard. A rapidly changing economic landscape in the 1970s promoted vast changes in the central California population distribution. In the SJV, the OPEC oil crisis promoted significant development of petroleum resources. Meanwhile, family farms were quickly being replaced with commercial-scale farming operations. The SJV population rapidly expanded to around 3 million people by the early 1990s. During this time, SJV emissions increased considerably, largely from increases in mobile source

  3. Historical land use change and associated carbon emissions in Brazil from 1940 to 1995

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leite, Christiane Cavalcante; Costa, Marcos Heil; Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira; de Barros Viana Hissa, Letícia

    2012-06-01

    The evaluation of impacts of land use change is in general limited by the knowledge of past land use conditions. Most publications on the field present only a vague description of the earlier patterns of land use, which is usually insufficient for more comprehensive studies. Here we present the first spatially explicit reconstruction of historical land use patterns in Brazil, including both croplands and pasturelands, for the period between 1940 and 1995. This reconstruction was obtained by merging satellite imagery with census data, and provides a 5' × 5' yearly data set of land use for three different categories (cropland, natural pastureland and planted pastureland) for Brazil. The results show that important land use changes occurred in Brazil. Natural pasture dominated in the 1950s and 1960s, but since the beginning of 1970s it has been gradually replaced by planted pasture, especially in southeast and center west of Brazil. The croplands began its expansion in the 1960s reaching extensive areas in almost all states in 1980. Carbon emissions from historical land use changes were calculated by superimposing a composite biomass map on grids of a weighted average of the fractions of the vegetation types and the replacement land uses. Net emissions from land use changes between 1940 and 1995 totaled 17.2 ± 9.0 Pg-C (90% confidence range), averaging 0.31 ± 0.16 Pg-C yr-1, but reaching up to 0.47 ± 0.25 Pg-C yr-1 during the 1960s and through 1986-1995. Despite international concerns about Amazon deforestation emissions, 72% of Brazil's carbon emissions during the period actually came from deforestation in the Atlantic Forest and Cerrado biomes. Brazil's carbon emissions from land use change are about 11 times larger than its emissions from fossil fuel burning, although only about 18.1% of the native biomass has been lost due to agricultural expansion, which is similar to the global mean (17.7%).

  4. Changes in inorganic fine particulate matter sensitivities to precursors due to large-scale US emissions reductions.

    PubMed

    Holt, Jareth; Selin, Noelle E; Solomon, Susan

    2015-04-21

    We examined the impact of large US emissions changes, similar to those estimated to have occurred between 2005 and 2012 (high and low emissions cases, respectively), on inorganic PM2.5 sensitivities to further NOx, SO2, and NH3 emissions reductions using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. Sensitivities to SO2 emissions are larger year-round and across the US in the low emissions case than the high emissions case due to more aqueous-phase SO2 oxidation. Sensitivities to winter NOx emissions are larger in the low emissions case, more than 2× those of the high emissions case in parts of the northern Midwest. Sensitivities to NH3 emissions are smaller (∼40%) in the low emissions case, year-round, and across the US. Differences in NOx and NH3 sensitivities indicate an altered atmospheric acidity. Larger sensitivities to SO2 and NOx in the low emissions case imply that reducing these emissions may improve air quality more now than they would have in 2005; conversely, NH3 reductions may not improve air quality as much as previously assumed.

  5. Changes in BVOC emission pattern from Fagus sylvatica L. measured by thermal desorber GC-MS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joó, É.; van Langenhove, H.; Schietse, L.; Pokorska, O.; Šimpraga, M.; Steppe, K.; Demarcke, M.; Amelynck, C.; Schoon, N.; Müller, J.-F.; Samson, R.; Dewulf, J.

    2009-04-01

    Considerable attention has been focused on biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from forest ecosystems because of their contribution to tropospheric oxidation processes and secondary aerosol formation [1, 2]. It became apparent that biogenic emissions show much more variation than previously assumed. In this poster we focus on the change in BVOC emission patterns from a four year old Fagus sylvatica L. during a growth chamber experiment (PAR, temperature controlled) lasting from March to November 2008. A dynamic branch enclosure system was used in our experiments. Ozone and VOC were removed from air entering the cuvette, as ozone level was found to be a critical parameter for degradation of the compounds [3]. Samples were collected on Tenax TA-Carbotrap solid phase adsorbent tubes and analyzed by TD-GC-MS. Measurements started before budburst of the tree and finished at the end of autumn. Over the entire period 33 samples have been analyzed, while 16 compounds were detected, including 10 monoterpenes (MT), 2 oxygenated-MTs, 2 sesquiterpenes (SQT), isoprene and methyl salicylate. Sabinene showed the highest emission, in an agreement with previous studies [4, 5]. Quantifiable emission appeared 21 days after budburst, and reached the highest level at the beginning of summer. MT emissions showed a clear trend in following each other. As an illustration the trend of sabinene and limonene emission is presented. In the middle of autumn phytophaga infection was observed on the tree induced by Two-spotted mite (Tetranychus urticae). New compounds appeared as a result of infection (linalool, methyl salicylate, (E,E)-α-farnesene, unknown oxygenated-MT, unknown SQT) and became dominant over sabinene, explained by the low MT emissions at this time of the year. These observations point at the importance of further investigation of BVOC emissions (especially SQTs and oxygenated-MTs) and the need for a proper quantification system of these compounds. We would like

  6. Impact of plastic mulching on nitrous oxide emissions in China's arid agricultural region under climate change conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Yongxiang; Tao, Hui; Jia, Hongtao; Zhao, Chengyi

    2017-06-01

    The denitrification-decomposition (DNDC) model is a useful tool for integrating the effects of agricultural practices and climate change on soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agricultural ecosystems. In this study, the DNDC model was evaluated against observations and used to simulate the effect of plastic mulching on soil N2O emissions and crop growth. The DNDC model performed well in simulating temporal variations in N2O emissions and plant growth during the observation period, although it slightly underestimated the cumulative N2O emissions, and was able to simulate the effects of plastic mulching on N2O emissions and crop yield. Both the observations and simulations demonstrated that the application of plastic film increased cumulative N2O emissions and cotton lint yield compared with the non-mulched treatment. The sensitivity test showed that the N2O emissions and lint yield were sensitive to changes in climate and management practices, and the application of plastic film made the N2O emissions and lint yield less sensitive to changes in temperature and irrigation. Although the simulations showed that the beneficial impacts of plastic mulching on N2O emissions were not gained under high fertilizer and irrigation scenarios, our simulations suggest that the application of plastic film effectively reduced soil N2O emissions while promoting yields under suitable fertilizer rates and irrigation. Compared with the baseline scenario, future climate change significantly increased N2O emissions by 15-17% without significantly influencing the lint yields in the non-mulched treatment; in the mulched treatment, climate change significantly promoted the lint yield by 5-6% and significantly reduced N2O emissions by 14% in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Overall, our results demonstrate that the application of plastic film is an efficient way to address increased N2O emissions and simultaneously enhance crop yield in the future.

  7. Dynamic control of light emission faster than the lifetime limit using VO2 phase-change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cueff, Sébastien; Li, Dongfang; Zhou, You; Wong, Franklin J.; Kurvits, Jonathan A.; Ramanathan, Shriram; Zia, Rashid

    2015-10-01

    Modulation is a cornerstone of optical communication, and as such, governs the overall speed of data transmission. Currently, the two main strategies for modulating light are direct modulation of the excited emitter population (for example, using semiconductor lasers) and external optical modulation (for example, using Mach-Zehnder interferometers or ring resonators). However, recent advances in nanophotonics offer an alternative approach to control spontaneous emission through modifications to the local density of optical states. Here, by leveraging the phase-change of a vanadium dioxide nanolayer, we demonstrate broadband all-optical direct modulation of 1.5 μm emission from trivalent erbium ions more than three orders of magnitude faster than their excited state lifetime. This proof-of-concept demonstration shows how integration with phase-change materials can transform widespread phosphorescent materials into high-speed optical sources that can be integrated in monolithic nanoscale devices for both free-space and on-chip communication.

  8. More frequent moments in the climate change debate as emissions continue

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huntingford, Chris; Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2015-12-01

    Recent years have witnessed unprecedented interest in how the burning of fossil fuels may impact on the global climate system. Such visibility of this issue is in part due to the increasing frequency of key international summits to debate emissions levels, including the 2015 21st Conference of Parties meeting in Paris. In this perspective we plot a timeline of significant climate meetings and reports, and against metrics of atmospheric greenhouse gas changes and global temperature. One powerful metric is cumulative CO2 emissions that can be related to past and future warming levels. That quantity is analysed in detail through a set of papers in this ERL focus issue. We suggest it is an open question as to whether our timeline implies a lack of progress in constraining climate change despite multiple recent keynote meetings—or alternatively—that the increasing level of debate is encouragement that solutions will be found to prevent any dangerous warming levels?

  9. Land cover change mapping using MODIS time series to improve emissions inventories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    López-Saldaña, Gerardo; Quaife, Tristan; Clifford, Debbie

    2016-04-01

    MELODIES is an FP7 funded project to develop innovative and sustainable services, based upon Open Data, for users in research, government, industry and the general public in a broad range of societal and environmental benefit areas. Understanding and quantifying land surface changes is necessary for estimating greenhouse gas and ammonia emissions, and for meeting air quality limits and targets. More sophisticated inventories methodologies for at least key emission source are needed due to policy-driven air quality directives. Quantifying land cover changes on an annual basis requires greater spatial and temporal disaggregation of input data. The main aim of this study is to develop a methodology for using Earth Observations (EO) to identify annual land surface changes that will improve emissions inventories from agriculture and land use/land use change and forestry (LULUCF) in the UK. First goal is to find the best sets of input features that describe accurately the surface dynamics. In order to identify annual and inter-annual land surface changes, a times series of surface reflectance was used to capture seasonal variability. Daily surface reflectance images from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at 500m resolution were used to invert a Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) model to create the seamless time series. Given the limited number of cloud-free observations, a BRDF climatology was used to constrain the model inversion and where no high-scientific quality observations were available at all, as a gap filler. The Land Cover Map 2007 (LC2007) produced by the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) was used for training and testing purposes. A land cover product was created for 2003 to 2015 and a bayesian approach was created to identified land cover changes. We will present the results of the time series development and the first exercises when creating the land cover and land cover changes products.

  10. Incinerator performance: effects of changes in waste input and furnace operation on air emissions and residues.

    PubMed

    Astrup, Thomas; Riber, Christian; Pedersen, Anne Juul

    2011-10-01

    Waste incineration can be considered a robust technology for energy recovery from mixed waste. Modern incinerators are generally able to maintain relatively stable performance, but changes in waste input and furnace operation may affect emissions. This study investigated how inorganic air emissions and residue composition at a full-scale incinerator were affected by known additions of specific waste materials to the normal municipal solid waste (MSW) input. Six individual experiments were carried out (% ww of total waste input): NaCl (0.5%), shoes (1.6%), automobile shredder waste (14%), batteries (0.5%), poly(vinyl chloride) (5.5%) and chromate-cupper-arsenate impregnated wood (11%). Materials were selected based on chemical composition and potential for being included or excluded from the waste mix. Critical elements in the waste materials were identified based on comparison with six experiments including 'as-large-as-possible' changes in furnace operation (oxygen levels, air supply and burnout level) only using normal MSW as input. The experiments showed that effects from the added waste materials were significant in relation to: air emissions (in particular As, Cd, Cr, Hg, Sb), element transfer coefficients, and residue composition (As, Cd, Cl, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mo, Ni, Pb, S, Sb, Zn). Changes in furnace operation could not be directly linked to changes in emissions and residues. The results outlined important elements in waste which should be addressed in relation to waste incinerator performance. Likely ranges of element transfer coefficients were provided as the basis for sensitivity analysis of life-cycle assessment (LCA) results involving waste incinerator technologies.

  11. Climate change and pollutant emissions impacts on air quality in 2050 over Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sá, E.; Martins, H.; Ferreira, J.; Marta-Almeida, M.; Rocha, A.; Carvalho, A.; Freitas, S.; Borrego, C.

    2016-04-01

    Changes in climate and air pollutant emissions will affect future air quality from global to urban scale. In this study, regional air quality simulations for historical and future periods are conducted, with CAMx version 6.0, to investigate the impacts of future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over Portugal and the Porto metropolitan area in 2050. The climate and the emission projections were derived from the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP8.5) scenario. Modelling results show that climate change will impact NO2, PM10 and O3 concentrations over Portugal. The NO2 and PM10 annual means will increase in Portugal and in the Porto municipality, and the maximum 8-hr daily O3 value will increase in the Porto suburban areas (approximately 5%) and decrease in the urban area (approximately 2%). When considering climate change and projected anthropogenic emissions, the NO2 annual mean decreases (approximately 50%); PM10 annual mean will increase in Portugal and decrease in Porto municipality (approximately 13%); however PM10 and O3 levels increase and extremes occur more often, surpassing the currently legislated annual limits and displaying a higher frequency of daily exceedances. This air quality degradation is likely to be related with the trends found for the 2046-2065 climate, which implies warmer and dryer conditions, and with the increase of background concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. The results demonstrate the need for Portuguese authorities and policy-makers to design and implement air quality management strategies that take climate change impacts into account.

  12. Metabolomic Changes in Murine Serum Following Inhalation Exposure to Gasoline and Diesel Engine Emissions

    PubMed Central

    Brower, Jeremy B.; Doyle-Eisele, Melanie; Moeller, Benjamin; Stirdivant, Steven; McDonald, Jacob D.; Campen, Matthew J.

    2016-01-01

    The adverse health effects of environmental exposure to gaseous and particulate components of vehicular emissions are a major concern among urban populations. A link has been established between respiratory exposure to vehicular emissions and the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but the mechanisms driving this interaction remain unknown. Chronic inhalation exposure to mixed vehicle emissions has been linked to CVD in animal models. This study evaluated the temporal effects of acute exposure to mixed vehicle emissions (MVE; mixed gasoline and diesel emissions) on potentially active metabolites in the serum of exposed mice. C57Bl/6 mice were exposed to a single 6 hour exposure to filtered air (FA) or MVE (100 or 300 µg/m3) by whole body inhalation. Immediately after and 18 hours after the end of the exposure period, animals were sacrificed for serum and tissue collection. Serum was analyzed for metabolites that were differentially present between treatment groups and time points. Changes in metabolite levels suggestive of increased oxidative stress (oxidized glutathione, cysteine disulfide, taurine), lipid peroxidation (13-HODE, 9-HODE), energy metabolism (lactate, glycerate, branched chain amino acid catabolites, butrylcarnitine, fatty acids), and inflammation (DiHOME, palmitoyl ethanolamide) were observed immediately after the end of exposure in the serum of animals exposed to MVE relative to those exposed to FA. By 18 hours post exposure, serum metabolite differences between animals exposed to MVE versus those exposed to FA were less pronounced. These findings highlight complex metabolomics alterations in the circulation following inhalation exposure to a common source of combustion emissions. PMID:27017952

  13. Metabolomic changes in murine serum following inhalation exposure to gasoline and diesel engine emissions.

    PubMed

    Brower, Jeremy B; Doyle-Eisele, Melanie; Moeller, Benjamin; Stirdivant, Steven; McDonald, Jacob D; Campen, Matthew J

    2016-04-01

    The adverse health effects of environmental exposure to gaseous and particulate components of vehicular emissions are a major concern among urban populations. A link has been established between respiratory exposure to vehicular emissions and the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but the mechanisms driving this interaction remain unknown. Chronic inhalation exposure to mixed vehicle emissions has been linked to CVD in animal models. This study evaluated the temporal effects of acute exposure to mixed vehicle emissions (MVE; mixed gasoline and diesel emissions) on potentially active metabolites in the serum of exposed mice. C57Bl/6 mice were exposed to a single 6-hour exposure to filtered air (FA) or MVE (100 or 300 μg/m(3)) by whole body inhalation. Immediately after and 18 hours after the end of the exposure period, animals were sacrificed for serum and tissue collection. Serum was analyzed for metabolites that were differentially present between treatment groups and time points. Changes in metabolite levels suggestive of increased oxidative stress (oxidized glutathione, cysteine disulfide, taurine), lipid peroxidation (13-HODE, 9-HODE), energy metabolism (lactate, glycerate, branched chain amino acid catabolites, butrylcarnitine, fatty acids), and inflammation (DiHOME, palmitoyl ethanolamide) were observed immediately after the end of exposure in the serum of animals exposed to MVE relative to those exposed to FA. By 18 hours post exposure, serum metabolite differences between animals exposed to MVE versus those exposed to FA were less pronounced. These findings highlight complex metabolomics alterations in the circulation following inhalation exposure to a common source of combustion emissions.

  14. Response of Arctic temperature to changes in emissions of short-lived climate forcers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sand, M.; Berntsen, T. K.; von Salzen, K.; Flanner, M. G.; Langner, J.; Victor, D. G.

    2016-03-01

    There is growing scientific and political interest in the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions on the Arctic. Over recent decades temperatures in the Arctic have increased at twice the global rate, largely as a result of ice-albedo and temperature feedbacks. Although deep cuts in global CO2 emissions are required to slow this warming, there is also growing interest in the potential for reducing short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs; refs ,). Politically, action on SLCFs may be particularly promising because the benefits of mitigation are seen more quickly than for mitigation of CO2 and there are large co-benefits in terms of improved air quality. This Letter is one of the first to systematically quantify the Arctic climate impact of regional SLCFs emissions, taking into account black carbon (BC), sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), organic carbon (OC) and tropospheric ozone (O3), and their transport processes and transformations in the atmosphere. This study extends the scope of previous works by including more detailed calculations of Arctic radiative forcing and quantifying the Arctic temperature response. We find that the largest Arctic warming source is from emissions within the Asian nations owing to the large absolute amount of emissions. However, the Arctic is most sensitive, per unit mass emitted, to SLCFs emissions from a small number of activities within the Arctic nations themselves. A stringent, but technically feasible mitigation scenario for SLCFs, phased in from 2015 to 2030, could cut warming by 0.2 (+/-0.17) K in 2050.

  15. Historical Carbon Dioxide Emissions Caused by Land-Use Changes are Possibly Larger than Assumed

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arneth, A.; Sitch, S.; Pongratz, J.; Stocker, B. D.; Ciais, P.; Poulter, B.; Bayer, A. D.; Bondeau, A.; Calle, L.; Chini, L. P.; hide

    2017-01-01

    The terrestrial biosphere absorbs about 20% of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions. The overall magnitude of this sink is constrained by the difference between emissions, the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and the ocean sink. However, the land sink is actually composed of two largely counteracting fluxes that are poorly quantified: fluxes from land-use change andCO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. Dynamic global vegetation model simulations suggest that CO2 emissions from land-use change have been substantially underestimated because processes such as tree harvesting and land clearing from shifting cultivation have not been considered. As the overall terrestrial sink is constrained, a larger net flux as a result of land-use change implies that terrestrial uptake of CO2 is also larger, and that terrestrial ecosystems might have greater potential to sequester carbon in the future. Consequently, reforestation projects and efforts to avoid further deforestation could represent important mitigation pathways, with co-benefits for biodiversity. It is unclear whether a larger land carbon sink can be reconciled with our current understanding of terrestrial carbon cycling. Our possible underestimation of the historical residual terrestrial carbon sink adds further uncertainty to our capacity to predict the future of terrestrial carbon uptake and losses.

  16. Historical carbon dioxide emissions caused by land-use changes are possibly larger than assumed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arneth, A.; Sitch, S.; Pongratz, J.; Stocker, B. D.; Ciais, P.; Poulter, B.; Bayer, A. D.; Bondeau, A.; Calle, L.; Chini, L. P.; Gasser, T.; Fader, M.; Friedlingstein, P.; Kato, E.; Li, W.; Lindeskog, M.; Nabel, J. E. M. S.; Pugh, T. A. M.; Robertson, E.; Viovy, N.; Yue, C.; Zaehle, S.

    2017-01-01

    The terrestrial biosphere absorbs about 20% of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions. The overall magnitude of this sink is constrained by the difference between emissions, the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and the ocean sink. However, the land sink is actually composed of two largely counteracting fluxes that are poorly quantified: fluxes from land-use change and CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. Dynamic global vegetation model simulations suggest that CO2 emissions from land-use change have been substantially underestimated because processes such as tree harvesting and land clearing from shifting cultivation have not been considered. As the overall terrestrial sink is constrained, a larger net flux as a result of land-use change implies that terrestrial uptake of CO2 is also larger, and that terrestrial ecosystems might have greater potential to sequester carbon in the future. Consequently, reforestation projects and efforts to avoid further deforestation could represent important mitigation pathways, with co-benefits for biodiversity. It is unclear whether a larger land carbon sink can be reconciled with our current understanding of terrestrial carbon cycling. Our possible underestimation of the historical residual terrestrial carbon sink adds further uncertainty to our capacity to predict the future of terrestrial carbon uptake and losses.

  17. Greenhouse gas emissions and land use change from Jatropha curcas-based jet fuel in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Bailis, Robert E; Baka, Jennifer E

    2010-11-15

    This analysis presents a comparison of life-cycle GHG emissions from synthetic paraffinic kerosene (SPK) produced as jet fuel substitute from jatropha curcas feedstock cultivated in Brazil against a reference scenario of conventional jet fuel. Life cycle inventory data are derived from surveys of actual Jatropha growers and processors. Results indicate that a baseline scenario, which assumes a medium yield of 4 tons of dry fruit per hectare under drip irrigation with existing logistical conditions using energy-based coproduct allocation methodology, and assumes a 20-year plantation lifetime with no direct land use change (dLUC), results in the emissions of 40 kg CO₂e per GJ of fuel produced, a 55% reduction relative to conventional jet fuel. However, dLUC based on observations of land-use transitions leads to widely varying changes in carbon stocks ranging from losses in excess of 50 tons of carbon per hectare when Jatropha is planted in native cerrado woodlands to gains of 10-15 tons of carbon per hectare when Jatropha is planted in former agro-pastoral land. Thus, aggregate emissions vary from a low of 13 kg CO₂e per GJ when Jatropha is planted in former agro-pastoral lands, an 85% decrease from the reference scenario, to 141 kg CO₂e per GJ when Jatropha is planted in cerrado woodlands, a 60% increase over the reference scenario. Additional sensitivities are also explored, including changes in yield, exclusion of irrigation, shortened supply chains, and alternative allocation methodologies.

  18. The impacts of emissions, meteorology and climate change on pollution transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, Yuanyuan

    Long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants is known to exacerbate local and regional air quality problems. Questions remain, however, as to the spatial and temporal variation of intercontinental influence and its importance relative to pollution produced at the local or regional scales at present and in the future. A global chemical transport model (MOZART), a general circulation model (AM3) as well as recent field observations are applied to investigate the impacts of pollutant emissions, synoptic meteorology and climate change on the magnitude and variability of LRT. Surface O3 is a key air pollutant and it is mainly controlled by the supply of NOx on the global or regional scale. U.S. anthropogenic NOx emissions decreased notably since the 1990s due to emission regulations to improve the O3 air quality. Model sensitivity studies show a less-than-linear response of NOy (NOx and its oxidation products) export to NOx emission controls during summer time and suggest a need to control a larger percentage of emissions for a desired change in O3 precursor export. Recent observations suggest that northern mid-latitudes lightning NOx source may be underestimated in the current generation of models. If these models are used to estimate the contribution of O3 LRT, they will likely overestimate the fractional contribution of PAN to total NOy export and the northern mid-latitudinal regional mean O3 production efficiency per unit NOx. The resulting O3 response to foreign anthropogenic emissions will be overestimated. Future observational studies of lightning NOx are needed to constrain model estimates of the O3 response to anthropogenic NOx changes. Field campaigns over the past decades have identified cyclone passages and associated warm conveyor belts as key mechanisms for pollutant export from the United States. Using MOZART simulated CO as a tracer of pollution, a quantitative relationship between strong daily export events and migratory mid-latitude cyclones is established

  19. Biofuels that cause land-use change may have much larger non-GHG air quality emissions than fossil fuels.

    PubMed

    Tsao, C-C; Campbell, J E; Mena-Carrasco, M; Spak, S N; Carmichael, G R; Chen, Y

    2012-10-02

    Although biofuels present an opportunity for renewable energy production, significant land-use change resulting from biofuels may contribute to negative environmental, economic, and social impacts. Here we examined non-GHG air pollution impacts from both indirect and direct land-use change caused by the anticipated expansion of Brazilian biofuels production. We synthesized information on fuel loading, combustion completeness, and emission factors, and developed a spatially explicit approach with uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to estimate air pollution emissions. The land-use change emissions, ranging from 6.7 to 26.4 Tg PM(2.5), were dominated by deforestation burning practices associated with indirect land-use change. We also found Brazilian sugar cane ethanol and soybean biodiesel including direct and indirect land-use change effects have much larger life-cycle emissions than conventional fossil fuels for six regulated air pollutants. The emissions magnitude and uncertainty decrease with longer life-cycle integration periods. Results are conditional to the single LUC scenario employed here. After LUC uncertainty, the largest source of uncertainty in LUC emissions stems from the combustion completeness during deforestation. While current biofuels cropland burning policies in Brazil seek to reduce life-cycle emissions, these policies do not address the large emissions caused by indirect land-use change.

  20. Historical Responsibility for Climate Change - from countries emissions to contribution to temperature increase

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krapp, Mario; Gütschow, Johannes; Rocha, Marcia; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-04-01

    The notion of historical responsibility is central to the equity debate and the measure of responsibility as a countries' share of historical global emissions remains one of the essential parameters in so-called equity proposals, which attempt to distribute effort among countries in an equitable manner. The focus of this contribution is on the historical contribution of countries, but it takes it one step further: its general objective lies on estimating countries' contribution directly to the change in climate. The historical responsibility is not based on cumulative emissions but instead measured in terms of the countries' estimated contribution to the increase in global-mean surface-air temperature. This is achieved by (1) compiling a historical emissions dataset for the period from 1850 until 2012 for each individual Kyoto-greenhouse gas and each UNFCCC Party using a consistent methodology and (2) applying those historical emissions to a revised version of the so-called Policy-maker Model put forward by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the Federative Republic of Brazil, which is a simple, yet powerful tool that allows historical GHG emissions of individual countries to be directly related to their effect on global temperature changes. We estimate that the cumulative GHG emissions until 2012 from the USA, the European Union and China contribute to a total temperature increase of about 0.50°C in 2100, which is equivalent to about 50% of the temperature increase from total global GHG emissions by that year (of about 1.0°C). Respectively, the USA, the European Union, and China are responsible for 20.2%, 17.3%, and 12.1% of global temperature increase in 2100. Russian historical emissions are responsible for 0.06°C temperature increase by 2100, ranking as the fourth largest contributor to temperature increase with 6.2% of the total contribution. India ranks fifth: Indian emissions to date would contribute to roughly 0.05°C of global mean temperature

  1. Changes in Hydrologic Conditions and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Circumpolar Regions due to Climate Change-Induced Permafrost Retreat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whiticar, M. J.; Bhatti, J.; Startsev, N.

    2011-12-01

    Thawing permafrost peatlands influence northern ecosystems by changing the regional hydrology and mobilizing the vast carbon (C) reserves that results in increased greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions to the atmosphere. With permafrost distribution controlled largely by topography and climate, our IPY study intensively monitored the local C cycling processes and GHG fluxes associated with different hydrologic and permafrost environments at 4 sites along a climatic gradient extending from the Isolated Patches Permafrost Zone (northern Alberta), to the Continuous Permafrost Zone (Inuvik, NWT). Each site encompasses a local gradient from upland forest and peat plateau to collapse scar. Our multi-year measurements of peatland profiles and flux chambers for CH4 and CO2 concentrations and stable isotope ratios indicate processes, including methanogenesis, methanotrophy, transport and emission that control the distribution of these GHGs. These relationships are modulated by fluctuating local soil water and corresponding ecosystem conditions. The gas geochemistry shows that significant surface CH4 production occurs by both hydrogenotrophic and methyl-fermentative methanogenesis in submerged, anaerobic peats, e.g., collapse scars, whereas methane oxidation is restricted to aerobic, drier environments, e.g., upland sites and peat-atmosphere interface. The most active methanogenesis and emissions are in areas of actively thawing permafrost contrasting with sites under continuous permafrost. This degree of methanogenesis is being amplified by the increased rate of Arctic warming and the rapid retreat of Permafrost in Canada's Arctic (ca. 2.5 km/yr).

  2. Changes in Hydrologic Conditions and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Circumpolar Regions due to Climate Change-Induced Permafrost Retreat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whiticar, M. J.; Bhatti, J.; Startsev, N.

    2012-12-01

    Thawing permafrost peatlands influence northern ecosystems by changing the regional hydrology and mobilizing the vast carbon (C) reserves that results in increased greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions to the atmosphere. With permafrost distribution controlled largely by topography and climate, our IPY study intensively monitored the local C cycling processes and GHG fluxes associated with different hydrologic and permafrost environments at 4 sites along a latitudinal climatic gradient of Boreal, Subarctic and Arctic ecoclimatic regions that extend south-north from the Isolated Patches Permafrost Zone (northern Alberta), to the Continuous Permafrost Zone (Inuvik, NWT). Each site encompasses a local hydrologic gradient from upland forest and peat plateau to collapse scar. Our multi-year measurements of peatland profiles and flux chambers for CH4 and CO2 concentrations and stable isotope ratios indicate processes, including methanogenesis, methanotrophy, transport and emission that control the distribution of these GHGs. These relationships are modulated by fluctuating local soil water and corresponding ecosystem conditions. The gas geochemistry shows that significant surface CH4 production occurs by both hydrogenotrophic and methyl-fermentative methanogenesis in submerged, anaerobic peats, e.g., collapse scars, whereas methane oxidation is restricted to aerobic, drier environments, e.g., upland sites and peat-atmosphere interface. The most active methanogenesis and emissions are in areas of actively thawing permafrost contrasting with sites under continuous permafrost. This degree of methanogenesis is being amplified by the increased rate of Arctic warming and the rapid retreat of permafrost in Canada's Arctic (ca. 2.5 km/yr).

  3. Setting cumulative emissions targets to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zickfeld, K.; Eby, M.; Matthews, D.; Weaver, A. J.

    2008-12-01

    Preventing "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" requires stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Here we present a novel approach to coupled climate-carbon cycle modelling which allows one to estimate the probability that any given level of greenhouse gas emissions will exceed specified long-term global mean temperature targets for "dangerous anthropogenic interference", taking into consideration uncertainties in climate sensitivity and the carbon cycle response to climate change. Results obtained within this framework can serve as a basis for selecting a greenhouse gas emissions level given a global mean temperature target and an overshoot probability that society is willing to accept. For instance, we show that in order to stabilize global mean temperature at 2°C above pre-industrial levels with a probability of 0.66, cumulative CO2-equivalent emissions after 2000 must not exceed a best estimate of about 640 PgC (uncertainty range 280-930 PgC), independently of the path taken to stabilization.

  4. Pathological changes in Alzheimer"s brain evaluated with fluorescence emission analysis (FEA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christov, Alexander; Ottman, Todd; Grammas, Paula

    2004-07-01

    Development of AD is associated with cerebrovascular deposition of amyloid beta (Aβ) as well as a progressive increase in vasular collagen content. Both AΒ and collagen are naturally fluorescent compounds when exposed to UV light. We analyzed autofluorescence emitted from brain tissue samples and isolated brain resistance vessels harvested postmortem from patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and age-matched controls. Fluorescence emission, excited at 355 nm with an Nd:YAG laser, was measured using a fiber-optic based fluorescence spectroscopic system for tissue analysis. Significantly higher values of fluorescence emission intensity (P<0.001) in the spectral region from 465 to 490 nm were detected in brain resistance vessel samples from AD patients compared to the normal individuals. Results from western blot analysis showed elevated levels of type I and type III collagen, and reduced levels of type IV collagen in resistance vessels from AD patients, compared to control samples. In addition, using direct scanning of the cortical suface for fluoresxcence emission by the laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy system we detected a significantly (P<0.05) higher level of apoptosis in AD brain tissue compared to age-matched controls. Fluorescence emission analysis (FEA) appears to be a sensitive technique for detecting structural changes in AD brain tissue.

  5. Sensitivities of ozone and fine particulate matter formation to emissions under the impact of potential future climate change.

    PubMed

    Liao, Kuo-Jen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Napelenok, Sergey L; Woo, Jung-Hun; He, Shan; Amar, Praveen; Russell, Armistead G

    2007-12-15

    Impact of climate change alone and in combination with currently planned emission control strategies are investigated to quantify effectiveness in decreasing regional ozone and PM2.5 over the continental U.S. using MM5, SMOKE, and CMAQ with DDM-3D. Sensitivities of ozone and PM2.5 formation to precursor emissions are found to change only slightly in response to climate change. In many cases, mass per ton sensitivities to NO(x) and SO2 controls are predicted to be greater in the future due to both the lower emissions as well as climate, suggesting that current control strategies based on reducing such emissions will continue to be effective in decreasing ground-level ozone and PM2.5 concentrations. SO2 emission controls are predicted to be most beneficial for decreasing summertime PM2.5 levels, whereas controls of NO(x) emissions are effective in winter. Spatial distributions of sensitivities are also found to be only slightly affected assuming no changes in land-use. Contributions of biogenic VOC emissions to PM2.5 formation are simulated to be more important in the future because of higher temperatures, higher biogenic emissions, and lower anthropogenic NO(x) and SO2 emissions.

  6. Crop yield changes induced by emissions of individual climate-altering pollutants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shindell, Drew T.

    2016-08-01

    Climate change damages agriculture, causing deteriorating food security and increased malnutrition. Many studies have examined the role of distinct physical processes, but impacts have not been previously attributed to individual pollutants. Using a simple model incorporating process-level results from detailed models, here I show that although carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest driver of climate change, other drivers appear to dominate agricultural yield changes. I calculate that anthropogenic emissions to date have decreased global agricultural yields by 9.5 ± 3.0%, with roughly 93% stemming from non-CO2 emissions, including methane (-5.2 ± 1.7%) and halocarbons (-1.4 ± 0.4%). The differing impacts stem from atmospheric composition responses: CO2 fertilizes crops, offsetting much of the loss induced by warming; halocarbons do not fertilize; methane leads to minimal fertilization but increases surface ozone which augments warming-induced losses. By the end of the century, strong CO2 mitigation improves agricultural yields by ˜3 ± 5%. In contrast, strong methane and hydrofluorocarbon mitigation improve yields by ˜16 ± 5% and ˜5 ± 4%, respectively. These are the first quantitative analyses to include climate, CO2 and ozone simultaneously, and hence, additional studies would be valuable. Nonetheless, as policy makers have leverage over pollutant emissions rather than isolated processes, the perspective presented here may be more useful for decision making than that in the prior work upon which this study builds. The results suggest that policies should target a broad portfolio of pollutant emissions in order to optimize mitigation of societal damages.

  7. Assessments of the contribution of land use change to the dust emission in Central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xi, X.; Sokolik, I. N.

    2015-12-01

    While the dust emission from arid and semi-arid regions is known as a natural process induced by wind erosion, human may affect the dust emission directly through land use disturbances and indirectly by climate change. There has been much debate on the relative importance of climate change and land use to the global dust budget, as past estimates on the proportion of dust contributed by land use, in particular agricultural practices, remains very uncertain. This to the large extent stems from the way how human-made dust sources are identified and how they are treated in models. This study attempts to assess the land use contribution to the dust emission in Central Asia during 2000-2014 by conducting multiple experiments on the total emission in the WRF-Chem-DuMo model, and applying two methods to separate the natural and anthropogenic sources. The model experiments include realistic treatments of agriculture (e.g., expansion and abandonment) and water body changes (e.g., Aral Sea desiccation) in the land cover map of WRF-Chem-DuMo, but impose no arbitrary labeling of dust source type or adjustment to the erosion threshold. Intercomparison of the model experiments will be focused on the magnitude, interannual variability, and climate sensitivity of dust fluxes resulting from the selections of surface input data and dust flux parameterizations. Based on annual land use intensity maps, the sensitivity of the anthropogenic dust proportion to selection of the threshold value will be evaluated. In conjunction with the empirical method, satellite-derived annual land classifications will be used to track the land cover dynamics, and separate potential human-made source areas.

  8. Biological implications of longevity in dairy cows: 2. Changes in methane emissions and efficiency with age.

    PubMed

    Grandl, F; Amelchanka, S L; Furger, M; Clauss, M; Zeitz, J O; Kreuzer, M; Schwarm, A

    2016-05-01

    Previous studies indicated that absolute CH4 emissions and CH4 yield might increase and that milk production efficiency might decrease with age in cattle. Both would make strategies to increase longevity in dairy cattle less attractive. These aspects were experimentally determined in Brown Swiss cattle distributed continuously across a large age range. Thirty lactating dairy cows (876-3,648 d of age) received diets consisting of hay, corn silage, and grass pellets supplemented with 0 or 5kg of concentrate per day. Twelve heifers (199-778 d of age) received hay only. Cows and heifers were members of herds subjected to the 2 different feeding regimens (with or without concentrate) for the past 10 yr. Methane emissions were measured individually for 2 d in open-circuit respiration chambers, followed by quantifying individual feed intake and milk yield over 8 d. Additional data on digestibility, rumination time, and passage time of feed of all experimental animals were available. Regression analyses were applied to evaluate effects of age and feeding regimen. Body weight, milk yield, and the hay proportion of forage dry matter intake were considered as covariates. Methane emissions per unit of intake, body weight, and milk yield were significantly related to age. Their development in the cows with age was characterized by an increase to maximum at around 2,000 d of age, followed by a decline. This response was not accompanied by corresponding age-related changes in intake, chewing activity, digesta passage time, and digestibility of organic matter, which would have explained shifts in CH4. However, fiber digestibility showed a similar change with age as methane emissions, resulting in quite stable methane emissions per unit of digestible fiber. As expected, methane emissions intensity per unit of milk produced was greater by 8% without concentrate than with concentrate, but no difference was noted in the response to age when the animals were subjected to different

  9. Annual land cover change mapping using MODIS time series to improve emissions inventories.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    López Saldaña, G.; Quaife, T. L.; Clifford, D.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding and quantifying land surface changes is necessary for estimating greenhouse gas and ammonia emissions, and for meeting air quality limits and targets. More sophisticated inventories methodologies for at least key emission source are needed due to policy-driven air quality directives. Quantifying land cover changes on an annual basis requires greater spatial and temporal disaggregation of input data. The main aim of this study is to develop a methodology for using Earth Observations (EO) to identify annual land surface changes that will improve emissions inventories from agriculture and land use/land use change and forestry (LULUCF) in the UK. First goal is to find the best sets of input features that describe accurately the surface dynamics. In order to identify annual and inter-annual land surface changes, a times series of surface reflectance was used to capture seasonal variability. Daily surface reflectance images from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at 500m resolution were used to invert a Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) model to create the seamless time series. Given the limited number of cloud-free observations, a BRDF climatology was used to constrain the model inversion and where no high-scientific quality observations were available at all, as a gap filler. The Land Cover Map 2007 (LC2007) produced by the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) was used for training and testing purposes. A prototype land cover product was created for 2006 to 2008. Several machine learning classifiers were tested as well as different sets of input features going from the BRDF parameters to spectral Albedo. We will present the results of the time series development and the first exercises when creating the prototype land cover product.

  10. Biofuels, causes of land-use change, and the role of fire in greenhouse gas emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Kline, Keith L; Dale, Virginia H

    2008-07-01

    IN THEIR REPORTS IN THE 29 FEBRUARY ISSUE ('LAND CLEARING AND THE BIOFUEL CARBON debt,' J. Fargione et al., p. 1235, and 'Use of U.S. croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change,' T. Searchinger et al., p. 1238), the authors do not provide adequate support for their claim that biofuels cause high emissions due to land-use change. The conclusions of both papers depend on the misleading premise that biofuel production causes forests and grasslands to be converted to agriculture. However, field research, including a meta-analysis of 152 case studies, consistently finds that land-use change and associated carbon emissions are driven by interactions among cultural, technological, biophysical, political, economic, and demographic forces within a spatial and temporal context rather than by a single crop market. Searchinger et al. assert that soybean prices accelerate clearing of rainforest based on a single citation for a study not designed to identify the causal factors of land clearing. The study analyzed satellite imagery from a single state in Brazil over a 4-year period and focused on land classification after deforestation. Satellite imagery can measure what changed but does little to tell us why. Similarly, Fargione et al. do not rely on primary empirical studies of causes of land-use change. Furthermore, neither fire nor soil carbon sequestration was properly considered in the Reports. Fire's escalating contribution to global climate change is largely a result of burning in tropical savannas and forests. Searchinger et al. postulate that 10.8 million hectares could be needed for future biofuel, a fraction of the 250 to 400 million hectares burned each year between 2000 and 2005. By offering enhanced employment and incomes, biofuels can help establish economic stability and thus reduce the recurring use of fire on previously cleared land as well as pressures to clear more land. Neither Searchinger et al. nor Fargione et

  11. Sensitivity of air pollution-induced premature mortality to precursor emissions under the influence of climate change.

    PubMed

    Tagaris, Efthimios; Liao, Kuo-Jen; DeLucia, Anthony J; Deck, Leland; Amar, Praveen; Russell, Armistead G

    2010-05-01

    The relative contributions of PM(2.5) and ozone precursor emissions to air pollution-related premature mortality modulated by climate change are estimated for the U.S. using sensitivities of air pollutants to precursor emissions and health outcomes for 2001 and 2050. Result suggests that states with high emission rates and significant premature mortality increases induced by PM(2.5) will substantially benefit in the future from SO(2), anthropogenic NO(X) and NH(3) emissions reductions while states with premature mortality increases induced by O(3) will benefit mainly from anthropogenic NO(X) emissions reduction. Much of the increase in premature mortality expected from climate change-induced pollutant increases can be offset by targeting a specific precursor emission in most states based on the modeling approach followed here.

  12. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks from Abrupt Changes in High-Latitude Trace-Gas Emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Schlosser, Courtney Adam; Walter-Anthony, Katey; Zhuang, Qianlai; Melillo, Jerry

    2013-04-26

    Our overall goal was to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically forced climate warming, and the extent to which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes in the extent of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, over the Arctic. Through a coordinated effort of field measurements, model development, and numerical experimentation with an integrated assessment model framework, we have investigated the following hypothesis: There exists a climate-warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and thus instigates strong and/or sharp increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and wetland expansion). These would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.

  13. Acoustic emissions of digital data video projectors- Investigating noise sources and their change during product aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, Michael Shane

    2005-09-01

    Acoustic emission testing continues to be a growing part of IT and telecommunication product design, as product noise is increasingly becoming a differentiator in the marketplace. This is especially true for digital/video display companies, such as InFocus Corporation, considering the market shift of these products to the home entertainment consumer as retail prices drop and performance factors increase. Projectors and displays using Digital Light Processing(tm) [DLP(tm)] technology incorporate a device known as a ColorWheel(tm) to generate the colors displayed at each pixel in the image. These ColorWheel(tm) devices spin at very high speeds and can generate high-frequency tones not typically heard in liquid crystal displays and other display technologies. Also, acoustic emission testing typically occurs at the beginning of product life and is a measure of acoustic energy emitted at this point in the lifecycle. Since the product is designed to be used over a long period of time, there is concern as to whether the acoustic emissions change over the lifecycle of the product, whether these changes will result in a level of nuisance to the average customer, and does this nuisance begin to develop prior to the intended lifetime of the product.

  14. Interactive effects of environmental change and management strategies on regional forest carbon emissions.

    PubMed

    Hudiburg, Tara W; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Thornton, Peter E; Law, Beverly E

    2013-11-19

    Climate mitigation activities in forests need to be quantified in terms of the long-term effects on forest carbon stocks, accumulation, and emissions. The impacts of future environmental change and bioenergy harvests on regional forest carbon storage have not been quantified. We conducted a comprehensive modeling study and life-cycle assessment of the impacts of projected changes in climate, CO2 concentration, and N deposition, and region-wide forest management policies on regional forest carbon fluxes. By 2100, if current management strategies continue, then the warming and CO2 fertilization effect in the given projections result in a 32-68% increase in net carbon uptake, overshadowing increased carbon emissions from projected increases in fire activity and other forest disturbance factors. To test the response to new harvesting strategies, repeated thinnings were applied in areas susceptible to fire to reduce mortality, and two clear-cut rotations were applied in productive forests to provide biomass for wood products and bioenergy. The management strategies examined here lead to long-term increased carbon emissions over current harvesting practices, although semiarid regions contribute little to the increase. The harvest rates were unsustainable. This comprehensive approach could serve as a foundation for regional place-based assessments of management effects on future carbon sequestration by forests in other locations.

  15. Changes in CH4 emission from rice fields from 1960 to 1990s: 1. Impacts of modern rice technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gon, Hugo Denier

    2000-03-01

    Four countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Nepal) were taken as an example to assess the impact of changes in rice cultivation on methane emissions from rice fields since the 1960s. The change of rice area by type of culture from 1960-1990s is estimated, and its relative contribution to national harvested rice area is calculated and multiplied with an emission factor, to derive the relative methane emission per unit rice land. Relative methane emission per ha rice land has increased since 1960 for all four countries, largely due to an increase in irrigated rice area and partly due to a decrease in upland rice area. Patterns of rice area changes and related emission changes differ considerably among countries. On the basis of the rice area increases between 1960 and the 1990s, significant increases in methane emissions from rice fields due to increases in total rice cultivated area are not to be expected in the future. The impact of modern rice variety adoption is assessed by relating methane emissions to rice production. The organic matter returned to the paddy soil is largely determined by rice biomass production which, given a certain yield, is different for traditional and modern rice varieties. By calculating total organic matter returned to rice paddy soils and assuming a constant fraction to be emitted as methane, rice production and methane emission can be related. The analysis indicates that (1) up to now, rice yield increases in countries with high modern rice variety adoption have not resulted in increased methane emissions per unit of harvested area and, (2) global annual emission from rice fields may be considerably lower than generally assumed. The introduction of modern rice varieties can be regarded as a historical methane emission mitigation strategy because higher rice yields resulted in lower or equal methane emissions.

  16. Changes in CH4 emission from rice fields from 1960 to 1990s. 1. Impacts of modern rice technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Gon, Hugo Denier

    2000-03-01

    Four countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Nepal) were taken as an example to assess the impact of changes in rice cultivation on methane emissions from rice fields since the 1960s. The change of rice area by type of culture from 1960-1990s is estimated, and its relative contribution to national harvested rice area is calculated and multiplied with an emission factor, to derive the relative methane emission per unit rice land. Relative methane emission per ha rice land has increased since 1960 for all four countries, largely due to an increase in irrigated rice area and partly due to a decrease in upland rice area. Patterns of rice area changes and related emission changes differ considerably among countries. On the basis of the rice area increases between 1960 and the 1990s, significant increases in methane emissions from rice fields due to increases in total rice cultivated area are not to be expected in the future. The impact of modern rice variety adoption is assessed by relating methane emissions to rice production. The organic matter returned to the paddy soil is largely determined by rice biomass production which, given a certain yield, is different for traditional and modern rice varieties. By calculating total organic matter returned to rice paddy soils and assuming a constant fraction to be emitted as methane, rice production and methane emission can be related. The analysis indicates that (1) up to now, rice yield increases in countries with high modern rice variety adoption have not resulted in increased methane emissions per unit of harvested area and, (2) global annual emission from rice fields may be considerably lower than generally assumed. The introduction of modern rice varieties can be regarded as a historical methane emission mitigation strategy because higher rice yields resulted in lower or equal methane emissions.

  17. Changing trends and emissions of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and their hydrofluorocarbon (HFCs) replacements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simmonds, Peter G.; Rigby, Matthew; McCulloch, Archie; O'Doherty, Simon; Young, Dickon; Mühle, Jens; Krummel, Paul B.; Steele, Paul; Fraser, Paul J.; Manning, Alistair J.; Weiss, Ray F.; Salameh, Peter K.; Harth, Chris M.; Wang, Ray H. J.; Prinn, Ronald G.

    2017-04-01

    High-frequency, in situ global observations of HCFC-22 (CHClF2), HCFC-141b (CH3CCl2F), HCFC-142b (CH3CClF2) and HCFC-124 (CHClFCF3) and their main HFC replacements, HFC-134a (CH2FCF3), HFC-125 (CHF2CF3), HFC-143a (CH3CF3) and HFC-32 (CH2F2), have been used to determine their changing global growth rates and emissions in response to the Montreal Protocol and its recent amendments. Global mean mole fractions of HCFC-22, -141b, and -142b have increased throughout the observation period, reaching 234, 24.3 and 22.4 pmol mol-1, respectively, in 2015. HCFC-124 reached a maximum global mean mole fraction of 1.48 pmol mol-1 in 2007 and has since declined by 23 % to 1.14 pmol mol-1 in 2015. The HFCs all show increasing global mean mole fractions. In 2015 the global mean mole fractions (pmol mol-1) were 83.3 (HFC-134a), 18.4 (HFC-125), 17.7 (HFC-143a) and 10.5 (HFC-32). The 2007 adjustment to the Montreal Protocol required the accelerated phase-out of emissive uses of HCFCs with global production and consumption capped in 2013 to mitigate their environmental impact as both ozone-depleting substances and important greenhouse gases. We find that this change has coincided with a stabilisation, or moderate reduction, in global emissions of the four HCFCs with aggregated global emissions in 2015 of 449 ± 75 Gg yr-1, in CO2 equivalent units (CO2 eq.) 0.76 ± 0.1 Gt yr-1, compared with 483 ± 70 Gg yr-1 (0.82 ± 0.1 Gt yr-1 CO2 eq.) in 2010 (uncertainties are 1σ throughout this paper). About 79 % of the total HCFC atmospheric burden in 2015 is HCFC-22, where global emissions appear to have been relatively similar since 2011, in spite of the 2013 cap on emissive uses. We attribute this to a probable increase in production and consumption of HCFC-22 in Montreal Protocol Article 5 (developing) countries and the continuing release of HCFC-22 from the large banks which dominate HCFC global emissions. Conversely, the four HFCs all show increasing mole fraction growth rates with

  18. Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, S. J.; Caldeira, K.; Matthews, D.

    2010-12-01

    If current greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations remain constant, the world would be committed to several centuries of increasing global mean temperatures and sea level rise. By contrast, near elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions would be required to produce diminishing GHG concentrations consistent with stabilization of mean temperatures. Yet long-lived energy and transportation infrastructure now operating can be expected to contribute substantial CO2 emissions over the next 50 years. Barring widespread retrofitting of existing power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies or the early decommissioning of serviceable infrastructure, these “committed emissions” represent infrastructural inertia which may be the primary contributor to total future warming commitment. With respect to GHG emissions, infrastructural inertia may be thought of as having two important and overlapping components: (i) infrastructure that directly releases GHGs to the atmosphere, and (ii) infrastructure that contributes to the continued production of devices that emit GHGs to the atmosphere. For example, the interstate highway and refueling infrastructure in the United States facilitates continued production of gasoline-powered automobiles. Here, we focus only on the warming commitment from infrastructure that directly releases CO2 to the atmosphere. Essentially, we answer the question: What if no additional CO2-emitting devices (e.g., power plants, motor vehicles) were built, but all the existing CO2-emitting devices were allowed to live out their normal lifetimes? What CO2 levels and global mean temperatures would we attain? Of course, the actual lifetime of devices may be strongly influenced by economic and policy constraints. For instance, a ban on new CO2-emitting devices would create tremendous incentive to prolong the lifetime of existing devices. Thus, our scenarios are not realistic, but offer a means of gauging the threat of climate change from existing

  19. Black carbon emission reduction strategies in healthcare industry for effective global climate change management.

    PubMed

    Raila, Emilia Mmbando; Anderson, David O

    2017-04-01

    Climate change remains one of the biggest threats to life on earth to date with black carbon (BC) emissions or smoke being the strongest cause after carbon dioxide (CO2). Surprisingly, scientific evidence about black carbon emissions reduction in healthcare settings is sparse. This paper presents new research findings on the reduction of black carbon emissions from an observational study conducted at the UN Peacekeeping Operations (MINUSTAH) in Haiti in 2014. Researchers observed 20 incineration cycles, 30 minutes for each cycle of plastic and cardboard sharps healthcare waste (HCW) containers ranged from 3 to 14.6 kg. The primary aim was to determine if black carbon emissions from healthcare waste incineration can be lowered by mainstreaming the use of cardboard sharps healthcare waste containers instead of plastic sharps healthcare waste containers. Similarly, the study looks into whether burning temperature was associated with the smoke levels for each case or not. Independent samples t-tests demonstrated significantly lower black carbon emissions during the incineration of cardboard sharps containers (6.81 ± 4.79% smoke) than in plastic containers (17.77 ± 8.38% smoke); a statistically significant increase of 10.96% smoke (95% Confidence Interval ( CI) [4.4 to 17.5% smoke], p = 0.003). Correspondingly, lower bottom burner temperatures occurred during the incineration of cardboard sharps containers than in plastic (95% Cl [16 to 126°C], p = 0.014). Finally, we expect the application of the new quantitative evidence to form the basis for policy formulation, mainstream the use of cardboard sharps containers and opt for non-incineration disposal technologies as urgent steps for going green in healthcare waste management.

  20. A spatial modeling framework to evaluate domestic biofuel-induced potential land use changes and emissions.

    PubMed

    Elliott, Joshua; Sharma, Bhavna; Best, Neil; Glotter, Michael; Dunn, Jennifer B; Foster, Ian; Miguez, Fernando; Mueller, Steffen; Wang, Michael

    2014-02-18

    We present a novel bottom-up approach to estimate biofuel-induced land-use change (LUC) and resulting CO2 emissions in the U.S. from 2010 to 2022, based on a consistent methodology across four essential components: land availability, land suitability, LUC decision-making, and induced CO2 emissions. Using high-resolution geospatial data and modeling, we construct probabilistic assessments of county-, state-, and national-level LUC and emissions for macroeconomic scenarios. We use the Cropland Data Layer and the Protected Areas Database to characterize availability of land for biofuel crop cultivation, and the CERES-Maize and BioCro biophysical crop growth models to estimate the suitability (yield potential) of available lands for biofuel crops. For LUC decision-making, we use a county-level stochastic partial-equilibrium modeling framework and consider five scenarios involving annual ethanol production scaling to 15, 22, and 29 BG, respectively, in 2022, with corn providing feedstock for the first 15 BG and the remainder coming from one of two dedicated energy crops. Finally, we derive high-resolution above-ground carbon factors from the National Biomass and Carbon Data set to estimate emissions from each LUC pathway. Based on these inputs, we obtain estimates for average total LUC emissions of 6.1, 2.2, 1.0, 2.2, and 2.4 gCO2e/MJ for Corn-15 Billion gallons (BG), Miscanthus × giganteus (MxG)-7 BG, Switchgrass (SG)-7 BG, MxG-14 BG, and SG-14 BG scenarios, respectively.

  1. A spatial modeling framework to evaluate domestic biofuel-induced potential land use changed and emissions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Elliot, Joshua; Sharma, Bhavna; Best, Neil; Glotter, Michael; Dunn, Jennifer B.; Foster, Ian; Miguez, Fernando; Mueller, Steffen; Wang, Michael

    2014-01-01

    We present a novel bottom-up approach to estimate biofuel-induced land-use change (LUC) and resulting CO2 emissions in the U.S. from 2010 to 2022, based on a consistent methodology across four essential components: land availability, land suitability, LUC decision-making, and induced CO2 emissions. Using highresolution geospatial data and modeling, we construct probabilistic assessments of county-, state-, and national-level LUC and emissions for macroeconomic scenarios. We use the Cropland Data Layer and the Protected Areas Database to characterize availability of land for biofuel crop cultivation, and the CERES-Maize and BioCro biophysical crop growth models to estimate the suitability (yield potential) of available lands for biofuel crops. For LUC decisionmaking, we use a county-level stochastic partial-equilibrium modeling framework and consider five scenarios involving annual ethanol production scaling to 15, 22, and 29 BG, respectively, in 2022, with corn providing feedstock for the first 15 BG and the remainder coming from one of two dedicated energy crops. Finally, we derive high-resolution above-ground carbon factors from the National Biomass and Carbon Data set to estimate emissions from each LUC pathway. Based on these inputs, we obtain estimates for average total LUC emissions of 6.1, 2.2, 1.0, 2.2, and 2.4 gCO2e/MJ for Corn-15 Billion gallons (BG), Miscanthus × giganteus (MxG)-7 BG, Switchgrass (SG)-7 BG, MxG-14 BG, and SG-14 BG scenarios, respectively.

  2. Emission changes resulting from the San Pedro Bay, California Ports Truck Retirement Program.

    PubMed

    Bishop, Gary A; Schuchmann, Brent G; Stedman, Donald H; Lawson, Douglas R

    2012-01-03

    Recent U.S. Environmental Protection Agency emissions regulations have resulted in lower emissions of particulate matter and oxides of nitrogen from heavy-duty diesel trucks. To accelerate fleet turnover the State of California in 2008 along with the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (San Pedro Bay Ports) in 2006 passed regulations establishing timelines forcing the retirement of older diesel trucks. On-road emissions measurements of heavy-duty diesel trucks were collected over a three-year period, beginning in 2008, at a Port of Los Angeles location and an inland weigh station on the Riverside freeway (CA SR91). At the Port location the mean fleet age decreased from 12.7 years in April of 2008 to 2.5 years in May of 2010 with significant reductions in carbon monoxide (30%), oxides of nitrogen (48%) and infrared opacity (a measure of particulate matter, 54%). We also observed a 20-fold increase in ammonia emissions as a result of new, stoichiometrically combusted, liquefied natural gas powered trucks. These results compare with changes at our inland site where the average ages were 7.9 years in April of 2008 and 8.3 years in April of 2010, with only small reductions in oxides of nitrogen (10%) being statistically significant. Both locations have experienced significant increases in nitrogen dioxide emissions from new trucks equipped with diesel particle filters; raising the mean nitrogen dioxide to oxides of nitrogen ratios from less than 10% to more than 30% at the Riverside freeway location.

  3. Emission Changes Resulting from the San Pedro Bay, California Ports Truck Retirement Program

    SciTech Connect

    Bishop, G. A.; Schuchmann, B. G.; Stedman, D. H.; Lawson, D. R.

    2012-01-03

    Recent U.S. Environmental Protection Agency emissions regulations have resulted in lower emissions of particulate matter and oxides of nitrogen from heavy-duty diesel trucks. To accelerate fleet turnover the State of California in 2008 along with the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (San Pedro Bay Ports) in 2006 passed regulations establishing timelines forcing the retirement of older diesel trucks. On-road emissions measurements of heavy-duty diesel trucks were collected over a three-year period, beginning in 2008, at a Port of Los Angeles location and an inland weigh station on the Riverside freeway (CA SR91). At the Port location the mean fleet age decreased from 12.7 years in April of 2008 to 2.5 years in May of 2010 with significant reductions in carbon monoxide (30%), oxides of nitrogen (48%) and infrared opacity (a measure of particulate matter, 54%). We also observed a 20-fold increase in ammonia emissions as a result of new, stoichiometrically combusted, liquefied natural gas powered trucks. These results compare with changes at our inland site where the average ages were 7.9 years in April of 2008 and 8.3 years in April of 2010, with only small reductions in oxides of nitrogen (10%) being statistically significant. Both locations have experienced significant increases in nitrogen dioxide emissions from new trucks equipped with diesel particle filters; raising the mean nitrogen dioxide to oxides of nitrogen ratios from less than 10% to more than 30% at the Riverside freeway location.

  4. Updating soil CO2 emission experiments to assess climate change effects and extracellular soil respiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vidal Vazquez, Eva; Paz Ferreiro, Jorge

    2014-05-01

    Experimental work is an essential component in training future soil scientists. Soil CO2 emission is a key issue because of the potential impacts of this process on the greenhouse effect. The amount of organic carbon stored in soils worldwide is about 1600 gigatons (Gt) compared to 750 Gt in the atmosphere mostly in the form of CO2. Thus, if soil respiration increased slightly so that just 10% of the soil carbon pool was converted to CO2, atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere could increase by one-fifth. General circulation model predictions indicate atmosphere warming between 2 and 5°C (IPCC 2007) and precipitation changes ranging from about -15 to +30%. Traditionally, release of CO2 was thought to occur only in an intracellular environment; however, recently CO2 emissions have been in irradiated soil, in the absence of microorganisms (Maire et al., 2013). Moreover, soil plays a role in the stabilization of respiration enzymes promoting CO2 release after microorganism death. Here, we propose to improve CO2 emission experiments commonly used in soil biology to investigate: 1) effects of climatic factors on soil CO2 emissions, and 2) rates of extracellular respiration in soils and how these rates are affected by environmental factors. Experiment designed to assess the effect of climate change can be conducted either in field conditions under different ecosystems (forest, grassland, cropland) or in a greenhouse using simple soil chambers. The interactions of climate change in CO2 emissions are investigated using climate-manipulation experiment that can be adapted to field or greenhouse conditions (e.g. Mc Daniel et al., 2013). The experimental design includes a control plot (without soil temperature and rain manipulation) a warming treatment as well as wetting and/or drying treatments. Plots are warmed to the target temperature by procedures such as infrared heaters (field) or radiant cable (greenhouse). To analyze extracellular respiration, rates of CO2

  5. The Uncertainty in 20th Century Carbon Budget due to Land Use Change Emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arora, V. K.; Boer, G. J.

    2009-05-01

    The uncertainty in 20th century carbon budget due to land use change (LUC) emissions is assessed using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) first generation Earth System Model (CanESM1). CanESM1 is based on CCCma third generation coupled general circulation model and includes terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle components. LUC emissions are modelled interactively on the basis of specified changes in land cover that determine the amount of deforestation as well as the corresponding albedo changes at the land surface. Eight fully coupled climate-carbon cycle simulations are performed using different reconstructions of the 1850-2000 land cover that are based on historical data sets of increase in cropland and pasture area. The reconstructions of 1850-2000 land cover are based on two approaches: in the linear approach the changes in fractional coverage of natural plant functional types (PFTs) are in proportion to changes in cropland and/or pasture area and in the rule-based approach the natural PFTs are deforested in a specified order. These simulations allow to estimate implied LUC emissions, the contribution of increase in cropland versus pasture area on LUC emissions, the uncertainty associated with using different historical data sets of crop area as well as the manner in which the historical land cover is reconstructed. The amount of deforested biomass for the 1850-2000 period ranges from 63 Pg C for the case where only increase in cropland area is taken into account following the rule-based approach to 145 Pg C where increases in cropland and pasture area are both taken into account following the linear approach. In absence of historical LUC the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is about 20 ppm below the observation-based value of ~370 ppm in the year 2000. Inclusion of increase in pasture area although increases the amount of deforested biomass it does not change the atmospheric CO2 substantially because pastures also sequester CO2

  6. Carbon Density and Anthropogenic Land Use Influences on Net Land-Use Change Emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J.; Rothwell, Andrew J.

    2013-10-08

    We examine historical and future land-use emissions using a simple mechanistic carbon-cycle model with regional and ecosystem specific parameterizations. Our central estimate of net terrestrial land-use change emissions, exclusive of climate feedbacks, is 250 GtC over the last three hundred years. This estimate is most sensitive to assumptions for preindustrial forest and soil carbon densities. We also find that estimates are sensitive to the treatment of crop and pasture lands. These sensitivities also translate into differences in future terrestrial uptake in the RCP4.5 land-use scenario. This estimate of future uptake is lower than the native values from the GCAM integrated assessment model result due to lower net reforestation in the RCP4.5 gridded land-use data product

  7. Nitrogen emissions along the Colorado Front Range: Response to population growth, land and water use change, and agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baron, J. S.; Del Grosso, S.; Ojima, D. S.; Theobald, D. M.; Parton, W. J.

    While N emissions are not commonly linked to land use change, the production of fixed nitrogen is strongly related to activities associated with urbanization, such as construction, production of energy, and development and use of transportation corridors. Agricultural intensification, brought about by application of synthetic N fertilizers and industrial-scale animal feeding operations, is another land use change that increases N emissions. The Colorado Front Range region experienced rapid population growth from 1980 (1.9 million) to 2000 (2.9 million). Emissions from point (power plants and industry) and mobile (highway and off road vehicles) sources were responsible for most of the increase in emissions since 1980. Agriculture (cropped and grazed land and livestock) was the other important source of N emissions. Soil emissions from cropped and grazed lands remained stable while livestock emissions increased slightly due to more cattle and hogs in feedlots. Although cause and effect relationships between increased N emissions and eutrophication of particular ecosystems are difficult to establish, higher N deposition has been observed at alpine sites near the headwaters of the South Platte River commensurate with the rise in emissions. The ecosystem responses of alpine systems to N deposition are likely to be the result, albeit an indirect one, of land use change.

  8. Ammonia Emissions from the Agriculture Sector of Argentina in a Context of Changing Technologies and Practices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dawidowski, L. E.

    2015-12-01

    Agriculture is a key sector of the Argentinean economy, accounting for 6 to 8 5% of the GDP in the last ten years. Argentina switched in the 90´s from an articulated co-evolution between extensive livestock and crop farming, with annual rotation of crops and livestock, to intensive decoupled practices. Under these new production schemes, ecosystems were supplied with more nutrients, generating increasing levels of wastes. Other changes have also occurred, associated with the shift of the agricultural frontier and the consequent reduction in the cattle stock. In addition, changes related to climate through the strong increase in rainfall in the 80s and 90s in the west Pampas, helped to boost agricultural development. The agriculture sector accounts for practically all NH3 emissions in Argentina, however no inventory has been thus far available. To bridge this gap and particularly to have accurate input information to run coupled atmospheric chemistry models for secondary inorganic aerosols, we estimated 2000-2012 NH3 emissions, both at national and spatially disaggregated levels. Of particular interest for us was also temporal disaggregation as crops growing and temperature exhibit strong seasonal variability. As no NH3 inventory was available we also estimated related N2O emissions to verify our estimates with those of national GHG emission inventory (NEI). National NH3 emissions in 2012 amounted to 309.9 Gg, use of fertilizers accounted for 43.6%, manure management 18,9%, manure in pasture 36,0% and agricultural waste burning 1.5%. Our N2O estimates are in good agreement with the GHG-NEI. NH3 estimates in the EDGAR database for 2008 are 84.0% higher than ours for this year, and exhibit more significant differences per category, namely 113,6% higher for use of fertilizers and about 500% higher for agricultural waste burning. Urea dominates national NH3 emissions, accounting for 32,8% of the total and its use for wheat and corn crops dominates the trend.

  9. A new view on the radiocontinuum emission in NGC 3079 from CHANG-ES

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dettmar, Ralf-Juergen; Sotomayor-Beltran, Carlos; Irwin, Judith; van Vliet Wiegert, Theresa; Chang-Es

    2015-01-01

    First results from a new radiocontinuum study of the edge-on galaxy NGC 3079 will be presented. This study is based on data from CHANG-ES (Continuum Halos in Nearby Galaxies - an EVLA Survey, PI Judith Irwin) which has observed 34 edge-on spiral galaxies with the JVLA in two frequency bands (L- and C-band) and in three array configurations (D, C, B). For the study presented here we have analyzed L- and C-band observations in the D and C-configurations, respectively.The detection of extended polarized signal was possible with the help of the rotation measure (RM) synthesis technique. This method in its simplest form takes advantage of the multi-channel capability of the JVLA by avoiding bandwidth depolarization and hence recovering the polarized signal along the line-of-sight of the galaxy. The analysis reveals large scale magnetic fields perpendicular to the disc on the northern side of the target, resembling the X-shaped field patterns found in other edge-on spiral galaxies. In the very center both sides of the well known nuclear outflow bubble show up in our maps which reach an unprecedented quality.

  10. Towards an inventory of methane emissions from manure management that is responsive to changes on Canadian farms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    VanderZaag, A. C.; MacDonald, J. D.; Evans, L.; Vergé, X. P. C.; Desjardins, R. L.

    2013-09-01

    Methane emissions from manure management represent an important mitigation opportunity, yet emission quantification methods remain crude and do not contain adequate detail to capture changes in agricultural practices that may influence emissions. Using the Canadian emission inventory methodology as an example, this letter explores three key aspects for improving emission quantification: (i) obtaining emission measurements to improve and validate emission model estimates, (ii) obtaining more useful activity data, and (iii) developing a methane emission model that uses the available farm management activity data. In Canada, national surveys to collect manure management data have been inconsistent and not designed to provide quantitative data. Thus, the inventory has not been able to accurately capture changes in management systems even between manure stored as solid versus liquid. To address this, we re-analyzed four farm management surveys from the past decade and quantified the significant change in manure management which can be linked to the annual agricultural survey to create a continuous time series. In the dairy industry of one province, for example, the percentage of manure stored as liquid increased by 300% between 1991 and 2006, which greatly affects the methane emission estimates. Methane emissions are greatest from liquid manure, but vary by an order of magnitude depending on how the liquid manure is managed. Even if more complete activity data are collected on manure storage systems, default Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidance does not adequately capture the impacts of management decisions to reflect variation among farms and regions in inventory calculations. We propose a model that stays within the IPCC framework but would be more responsive to farm management by generating a matrix of methane conversion factors (MCFs) that account for key factors known to affect methane emissions: temperature, retention time and inoculum. This

  11. Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China: Growth, Transition, and Institutional Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kahrl, Fredrich James

    Global energy markets and climate change in the twenty first century depend, to an extraordinary extent, on China. China is now, or will soon be, the world's largest energy consumer. Since 2007, China has been the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Despite its large and rapidly expanding influence on global energy markets and the global atmosphere, on a per capita basis energy consumption and GHG emissions in China are low relative to developed countries. The Chinese economy, and with it energy use and GHG emissions, are expected to grow vigorously for at least the next two decades, raising a question of critical historical significance: How can China's economic growth imperative be meaningfully reconciled with its goals of greater energy security and a lower carbon economy? Most scholars, governments, and practitioners have looked to technology---energy efficiency, nuclear power, carbon capture and storage---for answers to this question. Alternatively, this study seeks to root China's future energy and emissions trajectory in the political economy of its multiple transitions, from a centrally planned to a market economy and from an agrarian to a post-industrial society. The study draws on five case studies, each a dedicated chapter, which are organized around three perspectives on energy and GHG emissions: the macroeconomy; electricity supply and demand; and nitrogen fertilizer production and use. Chapters 2 and 3 examine how growth and structural change in China's macroeconomy have shaped energy demand, finding that most of the dramatic growth in the country's energy use over the 2000s was driven by an acceleration of its investment-dominated, energy-intensive growth model, rather than from structural change. Chapters 4 and 5 examine efforts to improve energy efficiency and increase the share of renewable generation in the electric power sector, concluding that China's power system lacks the flexibility in generation, pricing, and demand to

  12. Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simmons, C. T.; Matthews, H. D.

    2016-03-01

    Recent research has shown evidence of a linear climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions, which implies that the source, timing, and amount of emissions does not significantly influence the climate response per unit emission. Furthermore, these analyses have generally assumed that the climate response to land-use CO2 emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuels under the assumption that, once in the atmosphere, the radiative forcing induced by CO2 is not sensitive to the emissions source. However, land-cover change also affects surface albedo and the strength of terrestrial carbon sinks, both of which have an additional climate effect. In this study, we use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to assess the climate response to historical and future cumulative land-use CO2 emissions, in order to compare it to the response to fossil fuel CO2. We find that when we isolate the CO2-induced (biogeochemical) temperature changes associated with land-use change, then the climate response to cumulative land-use emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuel CO2. We show further that the globally-averaged albedo-induced biophysical cooling from land-use change is non-negligible and may be of comparable magnitude to the biogeochemical warming, with the result that the net climate response to land-use change is substantially different from a linear response to cumulative emissions. However, our new simulations suggest that the biophysical cooling from land-use change follows its own independent (negative) linear response to cumulative net land-use CO2 emissions, which may provide a useful scaling factor for certain applications when evaluating the full transient climate response to emissions.

  13. Modeling GHG Emissions and Carbon Changes in Agricultural and Forest Systems to Guide Mitigation and Adaptation: Synthesis and Future Needs

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Agricultural production systems and land use change for agriculture and forestry are important sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent commitments by the European Union, the United States, and China to reduce GHG emissions highlight the need to improve estimates of current em...

  14. Recent climatic change, greenhouse gas emissions and future climate: The implications for India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rao, P. Govinda; Kelly, P. M.; Hulme, M.

    1996-03-01

    In this paper, we discuss past climatic trends over India, greenhouse gas emissions due to energy consumption, forest and land-use changes, climate change scenarios for the year 2050, potential consequences for agriculture and cyclone activity and the possibility that India might limit the increasing trend in its emissions. India's mean surface air temperature has increased significantly by about 0.4°C over the past ccntury. Neither monsoon nor annual rainfall shows any significant trend. On average, there has been a rise in sea levels around India over recent decades, though considerable uncertainties exist in the accuracy and interpretation of the available data. Carbon emissions from the energy sector amount to 71 MT a year, equivalent to all other sectors combined. From land-use data, a marginal net sequestration of 5.25 million tonnes of carbon occurred during 1986. Following the IPCC guidelines, methane emissions from rice and livestock are estimated at 17.4 and 12.8 Tg/year, respectively. According to recent climate model projections, India may experience a further rise in temperature of 1 °C by the year 2050, about four times the rate of warming experienced over the past 100 years. A modest increase in precipitation amounts might occur. Cereals production is estimated to decrease and the nutrition security of the population-rich but land-hungry region of India might be hampered. An increase in local tropical cyclone activity may occur over thc next century, posing added problems as large areas in the coastal regions have a dense population. About 70% of the electricity generation in India is from coal-based power stations. Altering this dependence significantly to reduce emissions would imply a substantial change in the present energy policy of India. There is great potential for improving energy efficiency and conservation. The adoption of cleaner coal-technologies should be considered, as must the development of renewable, non-conventional energy

  15. Evaluating the contribution of changes in isoprene emissions to surface ozone trends over the eastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fiore, Arlene M.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Purves, Drew W.; Levy, Hiram; Evans, Mathew J.; Wang, Yuxuan; Li, Qinbin; Yantosca, Robert M.

    2005-06-01

    Reducing surface ozone (O3) to concentrations in compliance with the national air quality standard has proven to be challenging, despite tighter controls on O3 precursor emissions over the past few decades. New evidence indicates that isoprene emissions changed considerably from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s owing to land-use changes in the eastern United States (Purves et al., 2004). Over this period, U.S. anthropogenic VOC (AVOC) emissions decreased substantially. Here we apply two chemical transport models (GEOS-CHEM and MOZART-2) to test the hypothesis, put forth by Purves et al. (2004), that the absence of decreasing O3 trends over much of the eastern United States may reflect a balance between increases in isoprene emissions and decreases in AVOC emissions. We find little evidence for this hypothesis; over most of the domain, mean July afternoon (1300-1700 local time) surface O3 is more responsive (ranging from -9 to +7 ppbv) to the reported changes in anthropogenic NOx emissions than to the concurrent isoprene (-2 to +2 ppbv) or AVOC (-2 to 0 ppbv) emission changes. The estimated magnitude of the O3 response to anthropogenic NOx emission changes, however, depends on the base isoprene emission inventory used in the model. The combined effect of the reported changes in eastern U.S. anthropogenic plus biogenic emissions is insufficient to explain observed changes in mean July afternoon surface O3 concentrations, suggesting a possible role for decadal changes in meteorology, hemispheric background O3, or subgrid-scale chemistry. We demonstrate that two major uncertainties, the base isoprene emission inventory and the fate of isoprene nitrates (which influence surface O3 in the model by -15 to +4 and +4 to +12 ppbv, respectively), preclude a well-constrained quantification of the present-day contribution of biogenic or anthropogenic emissions to surface O3 concentrations, particularly in the high-isoprene-emitting southeastern United States. Better constraints

  16. Climate change and health costs of air emissions from biofuels and gasoline

    PubMed Central

    Hill, Jason; Polasky, Stephen; Nelson, Erik; Tilman, David; Huo, Hong; Ludwig, Lindsay; Neumann, James; Zheng, Haochi; Bonta, Diego

    2009-01-01

    Environmental impacts of energy use can impose large costs on society. We quantify and monetize the life-cycle climate-change and health effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions from gasoline, corn ethanol, and cellulosic ethanol. For each billion ethanol-equivalent gallons of fuel produced and combusted in the US, the combined climate-change and health costs are $469 million for gasoline, $472–952 million for corn ethanol depending on biorefinery heat source (natural gas, corn stover, or coal) and technology, but only $123–208 million for cellulosic ethanol depending on feedstock (prairie biomass, Miscanthus, corn stover, or switchgrass). Moreover, a geographically explicit life-cycle analysis that tracks PM2.5 emissions and exposure relative to U.S. population shows regional shifts in health costs dependent on fuel production systems. Because cellulosic ethanol can offer health benefits from PM2.5 reduction that are of comparable importance to its climate-change benefits from GHG reduction, a shift from gasoline to cellulosic ethanol has greater advantages than previously recognized. These advantages are critically dependent on the source of land used to produce biomass for biofuels, on the magnitude of any indirect land use that may result, and on other as yet unmeasured environmental impacts of biofuels. PMID:19188587

  17. An analysis of the impacts of global climate and emissions changes on regional tropospheric ozone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    John, Kuruvilla; Crist, Kevin C.; Carmichael, Gregory R.

    1994-01-01

    Many of the synergistic impacts resulting from future changes in emissions as well as changes in ambient temperature, moisture, and UV flux have not been quantified. A three-dimensional regional-scale photo-chemical model (STEM-2) is used in this study to evaluate these perturbations to trace gas cycles over the eastern half of the United States of America. The model was successfully used to simulate a regional-scale ozone episode (base case - June 1984) and four perturbations scenarios - viz., perturbed emissions, temperature, water vapor column, and incoming UV flux cases, and a future scenario (for the year 2034). The impact of these perturbation scenarios on the distribution of ozone and other major pollutants such as SO2 and sulfates were analyzed in detail. The spatial distribution and the concentration of ozone at the surface increased by about 5-15 percent for most cases except for the perturbed water vapor case. The regional scale surface ozone concentration distribution for the year 2034 (future scenario) showed an increase of non-attainment areas. The rural areas of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Georgia showed the largest change in the surface ozone field for the futuristic scenario when compared to the base case.

  18. Climate change and health costs of air emissions from biofuels and gasoline.

    PubMed

    Hill, Jason; Polasky, Stephen; Nelson, Erik; Tilman, David; Huo, Hong; Ludwig, Lindsay; Neumann, James; Zheng, Haochi; Bonta, Diego

    2009-02-10

    Environmental impacts of energy use can impose large costs on society. We quantify and monetize the life-cycle climate-change and health effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) and fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) emissions from gasoline, corn ethanol, and cellulosic ethanol. For each billion ethanol-equivalent gallons of fuel produced and combusted in the US, the combined climate-change and health costs are $469 million for gasoline, $472-952 million for corn ethanol depending on biorefinery heat source (natural gas, corn stover, or coal) and technology, but only $123-208 million for cellulosic ethanol depending on feedstock (prairie biomass, Miscanthus, corn stover, or switchgrass). Moreover, a geographically explicit life-cycle analysis that tracks PM(2.5) emissions and exposure relative to U.S. population shows regional shifts in health costs dependent on fuel production systems. Because cellulosic ethanol can offer health benefits from PM(2.5) reduction that are of comparable importance to its climate-change benefits from GHG reduction, a shift from gasoline to cellulosic ethanol has greater advantages than previously recognized. These advantages are critically dependent on the source of land used to produce biomass for biofuels, on the magnitude of any indirect land use that may result, and on other as yet unmeasured environmental impacts of biofuels.

  19. Surface Emissivity Retrieved with Satellite Ultraspectral IR Measurements for Monitoring Global Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhou, Daniel K.; Larar, Allen M.; Liu, Xu; Smith, William L.; Schluessel, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Surface and atmospheric thermodynamic parameters retrieved with advanced ultraspectral remote sensors aboard Earth observing satellites are critical to general atmospheric and Earth science research, climate monitoring, and weather prediction. Ultraspectral resolution infrared radiance obtained from nadir observations provide atmospheric, surface, and cloud information. Presented here is the global surface IR emissivity retrieved from Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) measurements under "clear-sky" conditions. Fast radiative transfer models, applied to the cloud-free (or clouded) atmosphere, are used for atmospheric profile and surface parameter (or cloud parameter) retrieval. The inversion scheme, dealing with cloudy as well as cloud-free radiances observed with ultraspectral infrared sounders, has been developed to simultaneously retrieve atmospheric thermodynamic and surface (or cloud microphysical) parameters. Rapidly produced surface emissivity is initially evaluated through quality control checks on the retrievals of other impacted atmospheric and surface parameters. Surface emissivity and surface skin temperature from the current and future operational satellites can and will reveal critical information on the Earth s ecosystem and land surface type properties, which can be utilized as part of long-term monitoring for the Earth s environment and global climate change.

  20. Climate and mortality changes due to reductions in household cooking emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bergman, Tommi; Mielonen, Tero; Arola, Antti; Kokkola, Harri

    2016-04-01

    Household cooking is a significant cause for health and environmental problems in the developing countries. There are more than 3 billion people who use biomass for fuel in cooking stoves in their daily life. These cooking stoves use inadequate ventilation and expose especially women and children to indoor smoke. To reduce problems of the biomass burning, India launched an initiative to provide affordable and clean energy solutions for the poorest households by providing clean next-generation cooking stoves. The improved cooking stoves are expected to improve outdoor air quality and to reduce the climate-active pollutants, thus simultaneously slowing the climate change. Previous research has shown that the emissions of black carbon can be decreased substantially, as much as 90 % by applying better technology in cooking stoves. We have implemented reasonable (50% decrease) and best case (90% decrease) scenarios of the reductions in black and organic carbon due to improved cooking stoves in India into ECHAM-HAMMOZ aerosol-climate model. The global simulations of the scenarios will be used to study how the reductions of emissions in India affect the pollutant concentrations and radiation. The simulated reductions in particulate concentrations will also be used to estimate the decrease in mortality rates. Furthermore, we will study how the emission reductions would affect the global climate and mortality if a similar initiative would be applied in other developing countries.

  1. Non-Kyoto Radiative Forcing in Long-Run Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Rose, Steven K.; Richels, Richard G.; Smith, Steven J.; Riahi, Keywan; Stefler, Jessica; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2014-04-27

    Climate policies designed to achieve climate change objectives must consider radiative forcing from the Kyoto greenhouse gas, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone. Net positive forcing leads to global average temperature increases. Modeling of non-Kyoto forcing is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. Five of the nineteen models in the EMF-27 Study model both Kyoto and non-Kyoto forcing. This paper describes and assesses current non-Kyoto radiative forcing modeling within these integrated assessment models. The study finds negative forcing from aerosols masking significant positive forcing in reference non-climate policy projections. There are however large differences across models in projected non-Kyoto emissions and forcing, with differences stemming from differences in relationships between Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions and fundamental differences in modeling structure and assumptions. Air pollution and non-Kyoto forcing decline in the climate policy scenarios. However, non-Kyoto forcing appears to be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide emissions, and further evaluation is merited. Overall, there is substantial uncertainty related to non-Kyoto forcing that must be considered.

  2. Multispectral radiation detection of small changes in target emissivity. [ice measurements on space shuttle external tank

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gagliano, J. A.; Newton, J. M.; Schuchardt, J. M.

    1982-01-01

    An investigation into the multispectral radiation detection of small changes in target emissivity has been performed by Georgia Tech. A series of ice detection measurements on the shuttle external tank (ET) were performed using an advanced instrumentation radiometer operating at 35/95 GHz. Actual shuttle ET ice detection measurements were run at NASA's National Space Technology Laboratory (NSTL) during cryogenic fueling operations prior to orbiter engine firing tests. Investigations revealed that ET icing caused an increase in surface brightness temperature and the test results further demonstrated the usefulness of millimeter wave radiometry for the detection of ice on the ET.

  3. Evaluating Future Land-use Change Scenarios: Trade-offs between Bio-energy Demand, Food Production, and Carbon Emission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

    2012-12-01

    In the construction of consistent future climate scenario, land use scenario has important role through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects on climate change. In terms of carbon emissions by the land-use change, relative importance may be high in the lower radiative forcing and lower carbon emission scenarios, which may use large amount of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). In this study, we first evaluated the CO2 emissions by land-use change in the 21st century using each RCPs scenarios. We use an offline terrestrial biogeochemical model VISIT, with book-keeping consideration of the carbon emission from deforested biomass and the regrowing uptake from abandoned cropland and pasture employing the gridded transition land-use data from RCPs. Effect of CO2 fertilization, land-use transition itself, and climate change are evaluated in the analysis. We found that constructing consistent land-use change carbon emission scenario with the gridded land-use change data requires precise considerations of effects of CO2 fertilization and climate change particularly for the regrowing uptake. Also, our result showed more emission of CO2 by the land-use change than the assumption in the integrated assessment model for RCP2.6 scenario. Then, we estimated the land-use area required to sustain the required biofuel production to match the assumption of BECCS use in RCPs with a global process based crop model. In the evaluation, we also estimated the further changes in carbon emissions by the required land-use change due to differences in crop yield assumptions, which also take into account of climate change. The trade-offs between land-use for crop, biocrop, and natural vegetation low-carbon scenario are discussed using the integrated terrestrial modeling approach.

  4. Decadal-scale trends in regional aerosol particle properties and their linkage to emission changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Bin; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Gu, Yu; Diner, David; Worden, John; Liou, Kuo-Nan; Su, Hui; Xing, Jia; Garay, Michael; Huang, Lei

    2017-05-01

    Understanding long-term trends in aerosol loading and properties is essential for evaluating the health and climatic effects of these airborne particulates as well as the effectiveness of pollution control policies. While many studies have used satellite data to examine the trends in aerosol optical depth (AOD), very few have investigated the trends in aerosol properties associated with particle size, morphology, and light absorption. In this study, we investigate decadal-scale (13-15 year) trends in aerosol loading and properties during 2001-2015 over three populous regions: the Eastern United States (EUS), Western Europe (WEU), and Eastern and Central China (ECC). We use observations from MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). Relationships between aerosol property trends and air pollutant emission changes are examined. We find that annual mean AOD shows pronounced decreasing trends over EUS and WEU regions, as a result of considerable emission reductions in all major pollutants except for mineral dust and ammonia (NH3). Over the ECC region, AOD increases before 2006 due to emission increases induced by rapid economic development, fluctuates between 2006 and 2011, and subsequently decreases after 2011 in conjunction with effective emission reduction in anthropogenic primary aerosols, sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOx). The fraction of small-size AOD (<0.7 μm diameter), Ångstrom exponent and single-scattering albedo have generally decreased, while the fractions of large-size (>1.4 μm diameter), nonspherical and absorbing AOD have generally shown increasing trends over EUS and WEU regions, indicating that fine and light-scattering aerosol constituents have been more effectively reduced than coarse and light-absorbing constituents. These trends are consistent with the larger reduction ratios in SO2 and NOx emissions than in primary aerosols, including mineral dust and black carbon (BC

  5. Land cover changes and greenhouse gas emissions in two different soil covers in the Brazilian Caatinga.

    PubMed

    Ribeiro, Kelly; Sousa-Neto, Eráclito Rodrigues de; Carvalho, João Andrade de; Sousa Lima, José Romualdo de; Menezes, Rômulo Simões Cezar; Duarte-Neto, Paulo José; da Silva Guerra, Glauce; Ometto, Jean Pierre Henry Baulbaud

    2016-11-15

    The Caatinga biome covers an area of 844,453km(2) and has enormous endemic biodiversity, with unique characteristics that make it an exclusive Brazilian biome. It falls within the earth's tropical zone and is one of the several important ecoregions of Brazil. This biome undergoes natural lengthy periods of drought that cause losses in crop and livestock productivity, having a severe impact on the population. Due to the vulnerability of this ecosystem to climate change, livestock has emerged as the main livelihood of the rural population, being the precursor of the replacement of native vegetation by grazing areas. This study aimed to measure GHG emissions from two different soil covers: native forest (Caatinga) and pasture in the municipality of São João, Pernambuco State, in the years 2013 and 2014. GHG measurements were taken by using static chamber techniques in both soil covers. According to a previous search, so far, this is the first study measuring GHG emissions using the static chamber in the Caatinga biome. N2O emissions ranged from -1.0 to 4.2mgm(-2)d(-1) and -1.22 to 3.4mgm(-2)d(-1) in the pasture and Caatinga, respectively, and they did not significantly differ from each other. Emissions were significantly higher during dry seasons. Carbon dioxide ranged from -1.1 to 14.1 and 1.2 to 15.8gm(-2)d(-1) in the pasture and Caatinga, respectively. CO2 emissions were higher in the Caatinga in 2013, and they were significantly influenced by soil temperature, showing an inverse relation. Methane emission ranged from 6.6 to 6.8 and -6.0 to 4.8mgm(-2)d(-1) in the pasture and Caatinga, respectively, and was significantly higher only in the Caatinga in the rainy season of 2014. Soil gas fluxes seemed to be influenced by climatic and edaphic conditions as well as by soil cover in the Caatinga biome. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Inorganic aerosols responses to emission changes in Yangtze River Delta, China

    SciTech Connect

    Dong, Xinyi; Li, Juan; Fu, Joshua S.; Gao, Yang; Huang, Kan; Zhuang, Guoshun

    2014-05-15

    China announced the Chinese National Ambient Air Quality standards (CH-NAAQS) on Feb. 29th, 2012, and PM2.5 is for the very first time included in the standards as a criteria pollutant. In order to probe into PM2.5 pollution over Yangtze River Delta, which is one of the major urban clusters hosting more than 80 million people in China, the integrated MM5/CMAQ modeling system is applied for a full year simulation to examine the PM2.5 concentration and seasonality, and also the inorganic aerosols responses to precursor emission changes. Both simulation and observation demonstrated that, inorganic aerosols have substantial contributions to PM2.5 over YRD, ranging from 37.1% in November to 52.8% in May. Nocturnal production of nitrate (NO3-) through heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 was found significantly contribute to high NO3-concentration throughout the year. We also found that in winter NO3- was even increased under nitrogen oxides (NOx) emission reduction due to higher production of N2O5 from the excessive ozone (O3) introduced by attenuated titration, which further lead to increase of ammonium (NH4+) and sulfate (SO42-), while other seasons showed decrease response of NO3-. Sensitivity responses of NO3- under anthropogenic VOC emission reduction was examined and demonstrated that in urban areas over YRD, NO3- formation was actually VOC sensitive due to the O3-involved nighttime chemistry of N2O5, while a reduction of NOx emission may have counter-intuitive effect by increasing concentrations of inorganic aerosols.

  7. Inorganic aerosols responses to emission changes in Yangtze River Delta, China.

    PubMed

    Dong, Xinyi; Li, Juan; Fu, Joshua S; Gao, Yang; Huang, Kan; Zhuang, Guoshun

    2014-05-15

    The new Chinese National Ambient Air Quality standards (CH-NAAQS) published on Feb. 29th, 2012 listed PM2.5 as criteria pollutant for the very first time. In order to probe into PM2.5 pollution over Yangtze River Delta, the integrated MM5/CMAQ modeling system is applied for a full year simulation to examine the PM2.5 concentration and seasonality, and also the inorganic aerosols responses to precursor emission changes. Total PM2.5 concentration over YRD was found to have strong seasonal variation with higher values in winter months (up to 89.9 μg/m(3) in January) and lower values in summer months (down to 28.8 μg/m(3) in July). Inorganic aerosols were found to have substantial contribution to PM2.5 over YRD, ranging from 37.1% in November to 52.8% in May. Nocturnal production of nitrate (NO3(-)) through heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 was found significantly contribute to high NO3(-) concentration throughout the year. In winter, NO3(-) was found to increase under nitrogen oxides (NOx) emission reduction due to higher production of N2O5 from the excessive ozone (O3) introduced by attenuated titration, which further lead to increase of ammonium (NH4(+)) and sulfate (SO4(2-)), while other seasons showed decrease response of NO3(-). Sensitivity responses of NO3(-) under anthropogenic VOC emission reduction was examined and demonstrated that in urban areas over YRD, NO3(-) formation was actually more sensitive to VOC than NOx due to the O3-involved nighttime chemistry of N2O5, while a reduction of NOx emission may have counter-intuitive effect by increasing concentrations of inorganic aerosols. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Exploring the response of West Siberian wetland methane emissions to potential future changes in climate, vegetation, and soil microbial metabolism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohn, Theodore; Kaplan, Jed; Lettenmaier, Dennis

    2015-04-01

    Methane emissions from northern peatlands depend strongly on environmental conditions, wetland plant species assemblages (via root zone oxidation and plant-aided transport), and soil microbial behavior (via metabolic pathways). While the responses of wetland methane emissions to potential future climate change have been extensively explored, the effects of future changes in plant species and soil microbial metabolism are not as well studied. We ran the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model over the West Siberian Lowland (WSL), with methane emissions parameters that vary spatially with dominant plant species, and forced with outputs from 32 CMIP5 models for the RCP4.5 scenario. We compared the effects of changes in climate and vegetation (in terms of both leaf area index and species abundances) on predicted wetland CH4 emissions for the period 2071-2100, relative to the period 1981-2010. We also explored possible acclimatization of soil microbial communities to these changes. We evaluated the effects of climate change, potential northward migration of plant species, and potential microbial acclimatization on end-of-century methane emissions over the WSL, in terms of both total annual emissions and the spatial distribution of emissions. Our results suggest that, while microbial acclimatization mitigates the effects of warmer temperatures, the northward migration of plant species enhances the response to warming (due to plant-aided transport), and additionally shifts the location of maximal emissions northward, where the possible release of ancient carbon with permafrost thaw is a concern. Our work indicates the importance of better constraining the responses of wetland plants and soil microbial communities to changes in climate as they are critical determinants of the region's future methane emissions.

  9. PRODAN dual emission feature to monitor BHDC interfacial properties changes with the external organic solvent composition.

    PubMed

    Agazzi, Federico M; Rodriguez, Javier; Falcone, R Dario; Silber, Juana J; Correa, N Mariano

    2013-03-19

    We have investigated the water/benzyl-n-hexadecyldimethylammonium chloride (BHDC)/n-heptane:benzene reverse micelles (RMs) interfaces properties using 6-propionyl-2-(N,N-dimethyl)aminonaphthalene, PRODAN, as molecular probe. We have used absorption and emission (steady-state and time-resolved) spectroscopy of PRODAN to monitor the changes in the RMs interface functionalities upon changing the external organic solvent blend. We demonstrate that PRODAN is a useful probe to investigate how the external solvent composition affects the micelle interface properties. Our results show that changes in the organic solvent composition in water/BHDC/n-heptane:benzene RMs have a dramatic effect on the photophysics of PRODAN. Thus, increasing the aliphatic solvent content over the aromatic one produces PRODAN partition and PRODAN intramolecular electron transfer (ICT) processes. Additionally, the water presence in these RMs makes the PRODAN ICT process favored with the consequent decreases in the LE emission intensity and a better definition of the charge transfer (CT) band. All this evidence suggests that the benzene molecules are expelled out of the interface, and the water-BHDC interactions are stronger with more presence of water molecules in the polar part of the interface. Thus, we demonstrate that a simple change in the composition of the external phase promotes remarkable changes in the RMs interface. Finally, the results obtained with PRODAN together with those reported in a previous work in our lab reveal that the external phase is important when trying to control the properties of RMs interface. It should be noted that the external phase itself, besides the surfactant and the polar solvent sequestrated, is a very important control variable that can play a key role if we consider smart application of these RMs systems.

  10. Climate and emission changes contributing to changes in near-surface ozone in Europe over the coming decades: results from model studies.

    PubMed

    Engardt, Magnuz; Bergström, Robert; Andersson, Camilla

    2009-12-01

    We used an off-line, regional, model of atmospheric transport and chemistry to investigate current and future levels of near-surface ozone and accumulated ozone exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb(v) (AOT40) in Europe. To describe the current situation and enable an evaluation of the model's performance we simulated a number of years around 2000. To assess changes in ozone concentrations due to possible emission changes in Europe, the model was run with the meteorology of the early 2000s and precursor emissions from a set of Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) emissions scenarios. By extrapolation of the observed increase in near-surface O3 at coastal locations in northwest Europe we constructed model boundaries that were used to simulate the impact of increasing hemispheric background in 2020. To assess changes in ozone concentrations due to climate change, the model was run with recent (2000) emissions but using meteorology from a regional climate model simulating a control (1961-1990) and a future (2021-2050) climate. The results indicate that climate change will have a small impact on ozone concentrations and AOT40 in the Nordic countries. Changes in hemispheric background concentrations and changes in precursor emissions in Europe will have a larger effect on ozone in Northern Europe. The situation is quite different in southern Europe, where climate change is expected to result in a very large increase in near-surface ozone concentrations.

  11. Greenhouse gas emissions from swine operations: evaluation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change approaches through meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Liu, Z; Powers, W; Liu, H

    2013-08-01

    The objective was to provide a systematic review of the literature on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from swine operations, with a meta-analysis that integrates results of independent studies. A total of 53 studies that measured GHG emissions from swine operations were included in the analyses. Results showed that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approaches were effective in estimating the overall CH4 and N2O emission levels from swine operations, but the variation of the measured emissions is not adequately captured. An overestimation by the IPCC approaches for CH4 emissions was observed for swine buildings with pit systems in European studies and the average percentage relative difference (PRD) between the measured and the IPCC values is -21.1%. The observed CH4 emissions from lagoons were lower than the IPCC estimated values and the average PRD is -33.9%. In North American studies the observed N2O emission factors for swine buildings with pit systems were significantly lower than the IPCC default values whereas in European studies they were significantly greater than the IPCC default values. The measured CH4 and N2O emissions were significantly affected by stage of production (P = 0.05 and <0.01, respectively) and geographic regions (P = 0.04 and 0.02, respectively). The IPCC approaches were effective in simulating the effect of temperature on CH4 emissions from outdoor slurry storage facilities whereas they could overestimate CH4 emissions from lagoons at low temperatures. The CH4 emissions from pits inside swine buildings were not significantly affected by average ambient temperatures. A positive relationship between diet CP content and CH4 emissions was confirmed in the meta-analysis. The obtained knowledge can be helpful in efforts to improve estimation of GHG emissions from swine operations.

  12. Dynamic control of light emission faster than the lifetime limit using VO2 phase-change

    PubMed Central

    Cueff, Sébastien; Li, Dongfang; Zhou, You; Wong, Franklin J.; Kurvits, Jonathan A.; Ramanathan, Shriram; Zia, Rashid

    2015-01-01

    Modulation is a cornerstone of optical communication, and as such, governs the overall speed of data transmission. Currently, the two main strategies for modulating light are direct modulation of the excited emitter population (for example, using semiconductor lasers) and external optical modulation (for example, using Mach–Zehnder interferometers or ring resonators). However, recent advances in nanophotonics offer an alternative approach to control spontaneous emission through modifications to the local density of optical states. Here, by leveraging the phase-change of a vanadium dioxide nanolayer, we demonstrate broadband all-optical direct modulation of 1.5 μm emission from trivalent erbium ions more than three orders of magnitude faster than their excited state lifetime. This proof-of-concept demonstration shows how integration with phase-change materials can transform widespread phosphorescent materials into high-speed optical sources that can be integrated in monolithic nanoscale devices for both free-space and on-chip communication. PMID:26489436

  13. Sensitivity of land use change emission estimates to historical land use and land cover mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, Shushi; Ciais, Philippe; Maignan, Fabienne; Li, Wei; Chang, Jinfeng; Wang, Tao; Yue, Chao

    2017-04-01

    The carbon emissions from land use and land cover change (ELUC) are an important anthropogenic component of the global carbon budget. Yet these emissions have a large uncertainty. Uncertainty in historical land use and land cover change (LULCC) maps and their implementation in global vegetation models is one of the key sources of the spread of ELUC calculated by global vegetation models. In this study, we used the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems terrestrial biosphere model to investigate how the different transition rules to define the priority of conversion from natural vegetation to agricultural land affect the historical reconstruction of plant functional types (PFTs) and ELUC. First, we reconstructed 10 sets of historical PFT maps using different transition rules and two methods. Then, we calculated ELUC from these 10 different historical PFT maps and an additional published PFT reconstruction, using the difference between two sets of simulations (with and without LULCC). The total area of forest loss is highly correlated with the total simulated ELUC (R2 = 0.83, P < 0.001) across the reconstructed PFT maps, which indicates that the choice of transition rules is a critical (and often overlooked) decision affecting the simulated ELUC. In addition to the choice of a transition rule, the initial land cover map and the reconstruction method for the reconstruction of historical PFT maps have an important impact on the resultant estimates of ELUC.

  14. An Interdisciplinary Module on Regulating Carbon Emissions to Mitigate Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Penny, S.; Sethi, G.; Smyth, R.; Leibensperger, E. M.; Gervich, C.; Batur, P.

    2016-12-01

    The dynamics of the unfolding carbon regulatory process presents a unique and timely opportunity to teach students about the grand challenge brought by climate change and the importance of systems thinking and interdisciplinary problem solving. In this poster, we summarize our recently developed 4-week activity-based class module "Regulating Carbon Emissions to Mitigate Climate Change," which we have developed as part of the InTeGrate ("Interdisciplinary Teaching about Earth for a Sustainable Future") program. These materials are suitable for introductory non-majors, environmental sciences majors, and political science majors, and we have formally piloted in each of these settings. This module is truly interdisciplinary and spans topics such as the Supreme Court ruling in Massachusetts v. EPA, costs and benefits of carbon abatement, and climate sensitivity. We discuss the unique challenges (and rewards!) that we experienced teaching materials entirely outside one's expertise.

  15. Seasonal changes in CH4 emissions from an alpine reservoir, Lake Klöntal, Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sollberger, S.; Eugster, W.; Schubert, C.; Wehrli, B.

    2012-04-01

    average fluxes, but they do record the magnitude of these changes via different methods. We thus conclude that the variability of CH4 fluxes observed throughout the literature and our study is related to both physical triggers and the method used for measurements. Eddy measurements are continuous but limited spatially, whereas chamber measurements directly spatially cover more of the lake surface but at low and intermittent frequency. The discrepancy between surface concentrations used for flux measurements and chamber emissions may also be due to the fact that sampling did not occur simultaneously at the same spot. This study highlights the necessity for future assessments of CH4 emissions from water bodies to use a combination of methods in order to account for the various sources of CH4 emission.

  16. Predicting Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Soil Carbon from Changing Pasture to an Energy Crop

    PubMed Central

    Duval, Benjamin D.; Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J.; Davis, Sarah C.; Keogh, Cindy; Long, Stephen P.; Parton, William J.; DeLucia, Evan H.

    2013-01-01

    Bioenergy related land use change would likely alter biogeochemical cycles and global greenhouse gas budgets. Energy cane (Saccharum officinarum L.) is a sugarcane variety and an emerging biofuel feedstock for cellulosic bio-ethanol production. It has potential for high yields and can be grown on marginal land, which minimizes competition with grain and vegetable production. The DayCent biogeochemical model was parameterized to infer potential yields of energy cane and how changing land from grazed pasture to energy cane would affect greenhouse gas (CO2, CH4 and N2O) fluxes and soil C pools. The model was used to simulate energy cane production on two soil types in central Florida, nutrient poor Spodosols and organic Histosols. Energy cane was productive on both soil types (yielding 46–76 Mg dry mass⋅ha−1). Yields were maintained through three annual cropping cycles on Histosols but declined with each harvest on Spodosols. Overall, converting pasture to energy cane created a sink for GHGs on Spodosols and reduced the size of the GHG source on Histosols. This change was driven on both soil types by eliminating CH4 emissions from cattle and by the large increase in C uptake by greater biomass production in energy cane relative to pasture. However, the change from pasture to energy cane caused Histosols to lose 4493 g CO2 eq⋅m−2 over 15 years of energy cane production. Cultivation of energy cane on former pasture on Spodosol soils in the southeast US has the potential for high biomass yield and the mitigation of GHG emissions. PMID:23991028

  17. Predicting greenhouse gas emissions and soil carbon from changing pasture to an energy crop.

    PubMed

    Duval, Benjamin D; Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J; Davis, Sarah C; Keogh, Cindy; Long, Stephen P; Parton, William J; DeLucia, Evan H

    2013-01-01

    Bioenergy related land use change would likely alter biogeochemical cycles and global greenhouse gas budgets. Energy cane (Saccharum officinarum L.) is a sugarcane variety and an emerging biofuel feedstock for cellulosic bio-ethanol production. It has potential for high yields and can be grown on marginal land, which minimizes competition with grain and vegetable production. The DayCent biogeochemical model was parameterized to infer potential yields of energy cane and how changing land from grazed pasture to energy cane would affect greenhouse gas (CO2, CH4 and N2O) fluxes and soil C pools. The model was used to simulate energy cane production on two soil types in central Florida, nutrient poor Spodosols and organic Histosols. Energy cane was productive on both soil types (yielding 46-76 Mg dry mass · ha(-1)). Yields were maintained through three annual cropping cycles on Histosols but declined with each harvest on Spodosols. Overall, converting pasture to energy cane created a sink for GHGs on Spodosols and reduced the size of the GHG source on Histosols. This change was driven on both soil types by eliminating CH4 emissions from cattle and by the large increase in C uptake by greater biomass production in energy cane relative to pasture. However, the change from pasture to energy cane caused Histosols to lose 4493 g CO2 eq · m(-2) over 15 years of energy cane production. Cultivation of energy cane on former pasture on Spodosol soils in the southeast US has the potential for high biomass yield and the mitigation of GHG emissions.

  18. Fluid Shifts: Otoacoustical Emission Changes in Response to Posture and Lower Body Negative Pressure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Melgoza, R.; Kemp, D.; Ebert, D.; Danielson, R.; Stenger, M.; Hargens, A.; Dulchavsky, S.

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: The purpose of the NASA Fluid Shifts Study is to characterize fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration spaceflight and to correlate these findings with vision changes and other elements of the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome. VIIP signs and symptoms, as well as postflight lumbar puncture data, suggest that elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) may be associated with spaceflight-induced cephalad fluid shifts, but this hypothesis has not been tested. Due to the invasive nature of direct measures of ICP, a noninvasive technique of monitoring ICP is desired for use during spaceflight. The phase angle and amplitude of otoacoustic emissions (OAEs) have been shown to be sensitive to posture change and ICP (1, 2), therefore use of OAEs is an attractive option. OAEs are low-level sounds produced by the sensory cells of the cochlea in response to auditory stimulation. These sounds travel peripherally from the cochlea, through the oval window, to the ear canal where they can be recorded. OAE transmission is sensitive to changes in the stiffness of the oval window, occurring as a result of changes in cochlear pressure. Increased stiffness of the oval window largely affects the transmission of sound from the cochlea at frequencies between 800 Hz and 1600 Hz. OAEs can be self-recorded in the laboratory or on the ISS using a handheld device. Our primary objectives regarding OAE measures in this experiment were to 1) validate this method during preflight testing of each crewmember (while sitting, supine and in head-down tilt position), and 2) determine if OAE measures (and presumably ICP) are responsive to lower body negative pressure and to spaceflight. METHODS: Distortion-product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAEs) and transient evoked otoacoustic emissions (TEOAEs) were recorded preflight using the Otoport Advance OAE system (Otodynamics Ltd., Hatfield, UK). Data were collected in four conditions (seated

  19. Effect of land-use change and management on biogenic volatile organic compound emissions--selecting climate-smart cultivars.

    PubMed

    Rosenkranz, Maaria; Pugh, Thomas A M; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter; Arneth, Almut

    2015-09-01

    Land-use change (LUC) has fundamentally altered the form and function of the terrestrial biosphere. Increasing human population, the drive for higher living standards and the potential challenges of mitigating and adapting to global environmental change mean that further changes in LUC are unavoidable. LUC has direct consequences on climate not only via emissions of greenhouse gases and changing the surface energy balance but also by affecting the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Isoprenoids, which dominate global BVOC emissions, are highly reactive and strongly modify atmospheric composition. The effects of LUC on BVOC emissions and related atmospheric chemistry have been largely ignored so far. However, compared with natural ecosystems, most tree species used in bioenergy plantations are strong BVOC emitters, whereas intensively cultivated crops typically emit less BVOCs. Here, we summarize the current knowledge on LUC-driven BVOC emissions and how these might affect atmospheric composition and climate. We further discuss land management and plant-breeding strategies, which could be taken to move towards climate-friendly BVOC emissions while simultaneously maintaining or improving key ecosystem functions such as crop yield under a changing environment. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Methane emission from Russian frozen wetlands under conditions of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reneva, S.

    2009-04-01

    There is growing evidence that the climate change will have significant impact on permafrost, leading to warming, thawing, and disappearance of the frozen ground. Arctic soils contain 14%-30% of all the carbon stored in soils worldwide, many of which is accumulated in the Arctic wetlands (Anisimov & Reneva 2006). Wetlands occupy almost 2 million km2 in the circumpolar region, contain about 50 Gt C, and because of the high groundwater levels favour the production of methane in the anaerobic carbon-rich soil layer (Anisimov et al 2005). Methane has 21-times stronger greenhouse effect than the equal amount of CO2, and there are growing concerns that enhanced CH4 emission may have significant effect on the global radiative forcing. The goal of our study was to estimate the potential increase in the methane emission from Russian frozen wetlands under the projected for the mid-21st century climatic conditions and to evaluate the effect it may have on global radiative forcing. We used digital geographically referenced contours of Russian wetlands from 1:1,000,000-scale topographic maps to calculate the total area (350 000 km2) and the fraction of land they occupy in the nodes of 0.5 by 0.5 degree lat/long regular grid spanning permafrost regions. These data were overlaid with the results from predictive permafrost model (Anisimov & Belolutskaia 2003, Anisimov et al 1999) forced by CCC, HadCM3, GFDL, NCAR climatic projections for 2050 under B1 emission scenario (ref. http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/ and http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/IPCC/). Ultimately, we calculated the increase in the amount of organic material that may potentially become available for decomposition due to deeper seasonal thawing of wetlands in the Russian part of Arctic. Following (Christensen et al 2003a, Christensen et al 2003b) we hypothesised that the temperature and substrate availability combined explain almost entirely the variations in mean annual methane emissions. We used the results of numerous

  1. Changes in monoterpene emission rates of Quercus ilex infested by aphids tended by native or invasive Lasius ant species.

    PubMed

    Paris, Carolina I; Llusia, Joan; Peñuelas, Josep

    2010-07-01

    The emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) depends on temperature and light. Other factors such as insect herbivory also may modify VOC emission. In particular, aphid feeding promotes the release of new compounds and changes the composition of plant volatile blends. Given that some aphids are tended by ants, we investigated whether ants change the emission of VOCs indirectly through attendance on aphids. The effect of Lachnus roboris aphids and two different tending ant species on terpene emission rates of 4-year-old holm oak (Quercus ilex) saplings was investigated during a field experiment. There were five treatments: saplings alone (T1), saplings infested with L. roboris aphids (T2), saplings infested with aphids tended by the local ant Lasius grandis (T3), those tended by small colonies of the invasive ant Lasius neglectus (T4), and those tended by large colonies of the same invasive ant species (T5). The infestation by L. roboris elicited the emission of Delta(3)-carene and increased the emission of myrcene and gamma-terpinene. Terpene emissions were modified depending on the tending ant species. Attendance by the local ant L. grandis increased alpha and beta-pinene and sabinene. Attendance by the invasive ant L. neglectus only decreased significantly the emission of myrcene, one of the major compounds of the Q. ilex blend. Aphid abundance decreased with time for all treatments, but there was no difference in aphid abundance among treatments. Total terpene emission rates were not correlated with aphid abundance. These results highlight that aphids and tending ants may change terpene emission rates, depending on the ant species.

  2. Emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, land-use change, and forestry in the Gambia.

    PubMed

    Jallow, B P

    1995-01-01

    The Gambia has successfully completed a national greenhouse gas emissions inventory based on the results of a study funded by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/Global Environment Facility (GEF) Country Case Study Program. The concepts of multisectoral, multidisciplinary, and interdisciplinary collaboration were most useful in the preparation of this inventory. New data were gathered during the study period, some through regional collaboration with institutions such as Environment and Development in the Third World (ENDA-TM) Energy Program and the Ecological Monitoring Center in Dakar, Senegal, and some through national surveys and the use of remote sensing techniques, as in the Bushfires Survey. Most of the data collected are used in this paper. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Energy Agency (IPCC/OECD/IEA) methodology is used to calculate greenhouse gas emissions. Many of the default data in the IPCC/OECD/IEA methodology have also been used. Overall results indicate that in the biomass sectors (agriculture, forestry, and land-use change) carbon dioxide (CO2) is emitted most, with a total of 1.7 Tg. This is followed by methane (CH4), 22.3 Gg; carbon monoxide (CO), 18.7 Gg; nitrogen oxides (NOx), 0.3 Gg; and nitrous oxide (N2O), 0.014 Gg. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) was used as an index to describe the relative effects of the various gases reported here. Based on the emissions in The Gambia in 1993, it was found that CO2 will contribute 75%, CH4 about 24.5%, and N2O 0.2% of the warming expected in the 100-year period beginning in 1993. The results in this analysis are limited by the shortcomings of the IPCC/OECD/IEA methodology and scarce national data. Because the methodology was developed outside of the developing world, most of its emissions factors and coefficients were developed and tested in environments that are very different from The Gambia. This is likely

  3. Estimating Indirect Emissions from Land Use Change Due to Biofuels (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reilly, J. M.

    2010-12-01

    Interest in biofuels as an alternative fuel has led to the realization that they may not be a viable low greenhouse gas alternative, even if process emissions are low, because expansions of land area in biomass crops may lead to forest destruction and hence carbon emissions.(1,2)If the concern was only direct land use effects—changes in carbon stocks on land directly used for biomass—direct measurement would be an option. However, agricultural economists recognize that if biofuels are produced from crops grown on existing cropland the crops previously grown there will likely be replaced by production elsewhere. Given international markets in agricultural products a diversion of land or part of the corn crop in the US for biofuels would result in higher market prices for corn and other crops, and thus spur land conversion almost anywhere around the world. There have now been a number of estimates of the potential land use emissions, and those estimates vary widely and are sensitive to key parameters of both the economic models used in the analysis and the representation of biophysical processes.(3,4,5)Among the important parameters are those that describe the willingness to convert unmanaged land, the ability to intensify production on existing land, the productivity of new land coming to production compared to existing cropland, demand elasticities for agricultural products, and the representation of carbon and nitrogen cycles and storage.(6,7) 1. J. Fargione, J. et al., Science 319, 1235 (2008). 2. T. Searchinger, T et al., Science 319, 1238 (2008) 3. J.M. Melillo, Science, 326: 1397-1399 (2009) 4. M. Wise et al., Science 324, 1183 (2009). 5. W. E. Tyner, et al., Land Use Changes and Consequent CO2 Emissions due to US Corn Ethanol Production: A Comprehensive Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University (July 2010). 6. T. W. Hertel, The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making? AAEA Presidential

  4. Soil nitrogen emissions in a changing climate: Implications for arid regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCalley, C. K.; Sparks, J. P.

    2009-12-01

    In arid ecosystems, gaseous nitrogen (N) fluxes can comprise a substantial proportion of annual N loss, directly affecting its long term bioavailability. Therefore, an essential part of understanding the impact of global climate change on arid regions is evaluating how the magnitude and composition of reactive N loss will respond to future environmental conditions. To address this question, we have integrated results from the Nevada Desert FACE Facility, Mojave Global Change Facility and a simulated climate change study on the Colorado Plateau to assess the effects of multiple global change factors on gaseous N loss from desert soils. We focused on three aspects of global change that are predicted to impact desert ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, increased soil temperature and changes in precipitation patterns. Results from the Desert FACE site show that long-term exposure to 550 ppm CO2 has little impact on summer and winter soil fluxes of reactive N. However, during the spring growing season we observed significant reductions in NO and NH3 emissions from soils influenced by elevated CO2. Additionally, in both the Mojave Desert and Colorado Plateau there appears to be a strong, driving influence of surface soil temperature on biotic and abiotic gaseous N loss. This coupled with increased reactive N loss in Colorado Plateau soils where temperature has been systematically raised by 2 °C suggests that both increases in average annual temperature and increases in high temperature events will increase rates of gaseous N loss in these systems. In addition to changing temperature, global models also predict that arid regions will experience alterations in the amount and timing of rainfall, although the nature of this change remains unclear. Precipitation causes large pulses of gaseous N loss from desert soils. Measurements from multiple sites, however, show that the magnitude of post-rain N emissions are highly variable across seasons with the largest

  5. Aviation-induced radiative forcing and surface temperature change in dependency of the emission altitude

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    FröMming, C.; Ponater, M.; Dahlmann, K.; Grewe, V.; Lee, D. S.; Sausen, R.

    2012-10-01

    The present study provides a detailed assessment of the net impact of global flight altitude changes on radiative forcing and temperature response. Changes in contrail coverage, chemical perturbations (H2O, O3, CH4) and associated radiative forcings were determined from simulations with a quasi CTM. Future development of global mean radiative forcing and temperature response was calculated by means of a linear response model. The range of possible effects arising from various future scenarios is analyzed, and tradeoffs between partially counteracting short- and long term effects are studied. Present-day global mean radiative forcing of short-lived species and CH4 is reduced when flying lower, whereas that of CO2increases. The opposite effect is found for higher flight altitudes. For increasing and sustained emissions, the climate impact changes are dominated by the effect of short-lived species, yielding a reduction for lower flight altitudes and an increase for higher flight altitudes. For future scenarios involving a reduction or termination of emissions, radiative forcing of short-lived species decreases immediately, that of longer lived species decreases gradually, and respective temperature responses start to decay slowly. After disappearance of the shorter lived effects, only the counteracting CO2 effect remains, resulting in an increased climate effect for lower flight altitudes and a decrease for higher flight altitudes. Incorporating knowledge about the altitude sensitivity of aviation climate impact in the route planning process offers substantial mitigation potential. Scenarios and time horizons for the evaluation of future effects of mitigation instruments must be chosen carefully depending on the mitigation aim.

  6. Distinctive timing of U.S. historical ozone change determined by climate and anthropogenic emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Y.; Lin, J.; He, C.

    2015-12-01

    The ground-level ozone over the United States is known to have been influenced by historical climate change and anthropogenic precursor emissions, whereas their individual contributions and the associated mechanisms of influence remain less understood. Here we analyze 25-year (1990-2014) annual mean ground-level ozone across the U.S. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and linear fitting show that ozone has experienced a notable rate of growth at 0.13 ppb/yr averaged over U.S. About 74% of this growth is attributed to enhancement in nighttime ozone (at 0.19 ppb/yr), with the remaining 26% due to daytime ozone increase (at 0.07 ppb/yr). To relate ozone interannual variations to climate change, we employ the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Southern Oscillation (SO) indices to infer the states of climate over the U.S. We find large correlations between ozone interannual variability and these climate indices: 0.65 for SO index, 0.73 for AMO index, and 0.82 for their combined index. The correlations are much higher (0.69, 0.78 and 0.86) for daytime ozone. Sensitivity simulations conducted with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model reveal that climate variability has determined ozone interannual variability, particularly for daytime ozone, while anthropogenic emissions reductions have particularly driven the growth in nighttime ozone. These results better connect ozone air pollution with human activity and climate change. Figure. Slopes for the linear fitting analyse of the ground-level ozone variations on the inter-annual timescale for AQS measurements during 1990-2014 (a) for daytime ozone and (b) for nighttime ozone. Also shown are the slopes for interannual variation during 2004-2011 (c) for daytime ozone and (d) for nighttime ozone.

  7. Changes in dissolved organic matter quality in a northern hardwood forest revealed by excitation emission spectroscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saraceno, J.; Shanley, J. B.; Pellerin, B. A.; Hansen, A. M.

    2016-12-01

    Changes in dissolved organic matter (DOM) quality may result from unusual and extreme precipitation patterns such as floods and droughts. In order to study DOM quality changes, we collected several hundred surface water samples during the past eight years from the W-9 watershed of the Sleepers River Research Watershed in Danville, Vermont for optical analysis of dissolved organic matter. We present the results of parallel factor (PARAFAC) and principal component analysis (PCA) on excitation emission matrices (EEMs). This analysis revealed that peaks T, C and M as identified by PARAFAC were the most prominent EEM features. The intensity of these peaks varied on inter-annual, seasonal and event time periods and these shifts reflect changes in DOM quality. Likely drivers of this variability in DOM chemistry are seasonal shifts in flow paths, antecedent moisture conditions, and precipitation duration and intensity. For example, during events, the relative proportion of protein-like, peak T fluorophores increased, likely from flushing of fresh polyphenols from surficial and shallow flow paths. During the winter, when groundwater dominates flow, EEMs were strong in humic-like peak C and peak M fluorophores, reflecting deeper soil sources and longer flow paths. Our analyses will reveal how DOM quality responds to climatic drivers, and thus how we can expect DOM quality to evolve under projected climate change scenarios.

  8. Sensitivity of biomarkers to changes in chemical emissions in the Earth’s Proterozoic atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grenfell, J. L.; Gebauer, S.; von Paris, P.; Godolt, M.; Hedelt, P.; Patzer, A. B. C.; Stracke, B.; Rauer, H.

    2011-01-01

    The search for life beyond the Solar System is a major activity in exoplanet science. However, even if an Earth-like planet were to be found, it is unlikely to be at a similar stage of evolution as the modern Earth. It is therefore of interest to investigate the sensitivity of biomarker signals for life as we know it for an Earth-like planet but at earlier stages of evolution. Here, we assess biomarkers, i.e. species almost exclusively associated with life, in present-day and in 10% present atmospheric level oxygen atmospheres corresponding to the Earth's Proterozoic period. We investigate the impact of proposed enhanced microbial emissions of the biomarker nitrous oxide, which photolyses to form nitrogen oxides which can destroy the biomarker ozone. A major result of our work is regardless of the microbial activity producing nitrous oxide in the early anoxic ocean, a certain minimum ozone column can be expected to persist in Proterozoic-type atmospheres due to a stabilising feedback loop between ozone, nitrous oxide and the ultraviolet radiation field. Atmospheric nitrous oxide columns were enhanced by a factor of 51 for the Proterozoic "Canfield ocean" scenario with 100 times increased nitrous oxide surface emissions. In such a scenario nitrous oxide displays prominent spectral features, so may be more important as a biomarker than previously considered in such cases. The run with "Canfield ocean" nitrous oxide emissions enhanced by a factor of 100 also featured additional surface warming of 3.5 K. Our results suggest that the Proterozoic ozone layer mostly survives the changes in composition which implies that it is indeed a good atmospheric biomarker.

  9. Land use change emission scenarios: anticipating a forest transition process in the Brazilian Amazon.

    PubMed

    Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Assis, Talita Oliveira; Dalla-Nora, Eloi L; Toledo, Peter Mann; Santos-Junior, Roberto Araújo Oliveira; Batistella, Mateus; Coelho, Andrea Santos; Savaget, Elza Kawakami; Aragão, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira Cruz; Nobre, Carlos Afonso; Ometto, Jean Pierre H

    2016-05-01

    Following an intense occupation process that was initiated in the 1960s, deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004, stabilizing around 6000 km(2) yr(-1) in the last 5 years. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Nevertheless, other threats remain, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large-scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We propose three updated qualitative and quantitative land-use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, including a normative 'Sustainability' scenario in which we envision major socio-economic, institutional, and environmental achievements in the region. We developed an innovative spatially explicit modelling approach capable of representing alternative pathways of the clear-cut deforestation, secondary vegetation dynamics, and the old-growth forest degradation. We use the computational models to estimate net deforestation-driven carbon emissions for the different scenarios. The region would become a sink of carbon after 2020 in a scenario of residual deforestation (~1000 km(2) yr(-1)) and a change in the current dynamics of the secondary vegetation - in a forest transition scenario. However, our results also show that the continuation of the current situation of relatively low deforestation rates and short life cycle of the secondary vegetation would maintain the region as a source of CO2 - even if a large portion of the deforested area is covered by secondary vegetation. In relation to the old-growth forest degradation process, we estimated average gross emission corresponding to 47% of the clear-cut deforestation from 2007 to 2013 (using the DEGRAD system data), although the aggregate effects of the postdisturbance regeneration can partially offset these emissions. Both processes (secondary

  10. Effect Of Per-Capita Land Use Changes On Holocene Forest Clearance And CO2 Emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruddiman, W. F.; Ellis, E. C.

    2009-12-01

    Several recent studies have attempted to estimate the extent of land clearance in the centuries and millennia before the industrial era. These studies require scaling modern land use to modern populations and then projecting (hind casting) that relationship in some way to pre-industrial times for which population information is available. Several studies have used a one-for-one (linear) scaling for these reconstructions, with the implicit assumption that land-use practices have not changed for several millennia. But this assumption is inconsistent with decades of field-based exploration: anthropological studies of contemporary cultures that use pre-modern farming methods, as well as archeological and paleoecological investigations of past farming methods. These studies suggest that per-capita land use was much larger millennia ago and then progressively decreased toward the present. Early land use (mostly shifting cultivation) was extensive (~4 +/- 2 ha/person) because land was readily available and little labor was required. By the centuries just prior to the industrial era, average per-capita land use had fallen to just ~0.4 +/- 0.2 ha per person because population growth forced farmers to grow food on smaller areas using more labor-intensive methods. Allowance for this long-term per-capita trend boosts estimates of the size of pre-industrial carbon emissions. Prior to the introduction of mechanized agriculture in prairie and steppe regions after 1850, most agriculture took place in forested regions. If small populations millennia ago had a disproportionately large impact on forest clearance and carbon emissions to the atmosphere, then later clearance and carbon emissions must be smaller than those derived by hind casting a linear relationship between modern population and land use.

  11. Estimation of methane emission rate changes using age-defined waste in a landfill site.

    PubMed

    Ishii, Kazuei; Furuichi, Toru

    2013-09-01

    Long term methane emissions from landfill sites are often predicted by first-order decay (FOD) models, in which the default coefficients of the methane generation potential and the methane generation rate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are usually used. However, previous studies have demonstrated the large uncertainty in these coefficients because they are derived from a calibration procedure under ideal steady-state conditions, not actual landfill site conditions. In this study, the coefficients in the FOD model were estimated by a new approach to predict more precise long term methane generation by considering region-specific conditions. In the new approach, age-defined waste samples, which had been under the actual landfill site conditions, were collected in Hokkaido, Japan (in cold region), and the time series data on the age-defined waste sample's methane generation potential was used to estimate the coefficients in the FOD model. The degradation coefficients were 0.0501/y and 0.0621/y for paper and food waste, and the methane generation potentials were 214.4 mL/g-wet waste and 126.7 mL/g-wet waste for paper and food waste, respectively. These coefficients were compared with the default coefficients given by the IPCC. Although the degradation coefficient for food waste was smaller than the default value, the other coefficients were within the range of the default coefficients. With these new coefficients to calculate methane generation, the long term methane emissions from the landfill site was estimated at 1.35×10(4)m(3)-CH(4), which corresponds to approximately 2.53% of the total carbon dioxide emissions in the city (5.34×10(5)t-CO(2)/y). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Cross influences of ozone and sulfate precursor emissions changes on air quality and climate

    PubMed Central

    Unger, Nadine; Shindell, Drew T.; Koch, Dorothy M.; Streets, David G.

    2006-01-01

    Tropospheric O3 and sulfate both contribute to air pollution and climate forcing. There is a growing realization that air quality and climate change issues are strongly connected. To date, the importance of the coupling between O3 and sulfate has not been fully appreciated, and thus regulations treat each pollutant separately. We show that emissions of O3 precursors can dramatically affect regional sulfate air quality and climate forcing. At 2030 in an A1B future, increased O3 precursor emissions enhance surface sulfate over India and China by up to 20% because of increased levels of OH and gas-phase SO2 oxidation rates and add up to 20% to the direct sulfate forcing for that region relative to the present day. Hence, O3 precursors impose an indirect forcing via sulfate, which is more than twice the direct O3 forcing itself (compare −0.61 vs. +0.35 W/m2). Regulatory policy should consider both air quality and climate and should address O3 and sulfate simultaneously because of the strong interaction between these species. PMID:16537360

  13. Cross influences of ozone and sulfate precursor emissions changes on air quality and climate.

    PubMed

    Unger, Nadine; Shindell, Drew T; Koch, Dorothy M; Streets, David G

    2006-03-21

    Tropospheric O(3) and sulfate both contribute to air pollution and climate forcing. There is a growing realization that air quality and climate change issues are strongly connected. To date, the importance of the coupling between O(3) and sulfate has not been fully appreciated, and thus regulations treat each pollutant separately. We show that emissions of O(3) precursors can dramatically affect regional sulfate air quality and climate forcing. At 2030 in an A1B future, increased O(3) precursor emissions enhance surface sulfate over India and China by up to 20% because of increased levels of OH and gas-phase SO(2) oxidation rates and add up to 20% to the direct sulfate forcing for that region relative to the present day. Hence, O(3) precursors impose an indirect forcing via sulfate, which is more than twice the direct O(3) forcing itself (compare -0.61 vs. +0.35 W/m(2)). Regulatory policy should consider both air quality and climate and should address O(3) and sulfate simultaneously because of the strong interaction between these species.

  14. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks from Abrupt Changes in High-Latitude Trace-Gas Emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Zhuang, Qianlai

    2012-11-16

    During the three-year project period, Purdue University has specifically accomplished the following: revised the existing Methane Dynamics Model (MDM) to consider the effects of changes of atmospheric pressure; applied the methane dynamics model (MDM) to Siberian region to demonstrate that ebullition estimates could increase previous estimates of regional terrestrial CH{sub 4} emissions 3- to 7-fold in Siberia; Conducted an analysis of the carbon balance of the Arctic Basin from 1997 to 2006 to show that terrestrial areas of the Arctic were a net source of 41.5 Tg CH{sub 4} yr{sup 1} that increased by 0.6 Tg CH{sub 4} yr{sup 1} during the decade of analysis, a magnitude that is comparable with an atmospheric inversion of CH{sub 4}; improved the quantification of CH{sub 4} fluxes in the Arctic with inversion methods; evaluated AIRS CH4 retrieval data with a transport and inversion model and surface flux and aircraft data; to better quantify methane emissions from wetlands, we extended the MDM within a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to include a large-scale hydrology model, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model; more recently, we developed a single box atmospheric chemistry model involving atmospheric methane (CH{sub 4}), carbon monoxide (CO) and radical hydroxyl (OH) to analyze atmospheric CH{sub 4} concentrations from 1984 to 2008.

  15. Human-induced erosion has offset one-third of carbon emissions from land cover change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhengang; Hoffmann, Thomas; Six, Johan; Kaplan, Jed O.; Govers, Gerard; Doetterl, Sebastian; van Oost, Kristof

    2017-04-01

    Anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) is an important carbon (C) loss mechanism, but current methods do not consider the role of accelerated soil organic C erosion and its burial in sediments in their assessments of net soil-atmosphere C exchange. Using a comprehensive global database and parsimonious modelling, we evaluate the impact of anthropogenic soil erosion on C fluxes between the Earth’s surface and atmosphere from the onset of agriculture to the present day. We find that agricultural erosion represents a very large and transient perturbation to the C cycle and has induced a cumulative net uptake of 78 +/- 22 Pg C in terrestrial ecosystems during the period 6000 BC to AD 2015. This erosion-induced soil organic C sink is estimated to have offset 37 +/- 10% of previously recognized C emissions resulting from ALCC. We estimate that rates of C burial have increased by a factor of 4.6 since AD 1850. Thus, current assessments may significantly overestimate both past and future anthropogenic emissions from the land. Given that ALCC is the most uncertain component of the global C budget and that there is a strong connection between ALCC and erosion, an explicit representation of erosion and burial processes is essential to fully understand the impact of human activities on the net soil-atmosphere C exchange.

  16. Well Known . . . to a Few People: Attribution of Excess Atmospheric CO2 and Resulting Global Temperature Change to Fossil Fuel and Land Use Change Emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwartz, S. E.

    2010-12-01

    The increase in atmospheric CO2 over its preindustrial (1750) value exceeded 100% of cumulative emissions from fossil fuel combustion (FF, including also cement manufacture) until about 1960, Figure 1. How could this be? Throughout the 19th century and into the early 20th century the major source of incremental atmospheric CO2 was not FF emissions but emissions from so-called "land-use changes" (LUC), net changes of carbon stocks in the terrestrial biosphere, due mainly to deforestation. LUC CO2 emissions have been a substantial fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions throughout the industrial period and even at present are about a third as great as FF emissions. Cumulative LUC CO2 emissions exceeded cumulative FF emissions until about 1965. Because of the long residence time of atmospheric CO2, the increase in atmospheric CO2 above preindustrial that can be attributed to LUC likewise exceeded that from FF until about 1965. LUC CO2 continues to represent about one-third of total excess atmospheric CO2 and the corresponding forcing; this attribution is robust to the CO2 impulse profile used but is sensitive to uncertainty in the estimate of LUC CO2 emissions. These conclusions come as a surprise to many. However, the dominant contribution of LUC to excess CO2 emissions and atmospheric mixing ratio was recognized in early work by Stuiver (Science, 1978) and Broecker and Peng (Tracers in the Sea, 1982) and unequivocally demonstrated by Keeling et al (AGU Monograph 55, 1989). The shadow of prior emissions of CO2 is lengthened further by the relaxation time of the physical climate system. However it is the relatively long residence time of excess carbon in the coupled atmosphere-mixed ocean layer system, about 50 years, that is primarily responsible for the persistent influence of prior CO2 emissions. These findings have implications for understanding the impact on subsequent generations of CO2 emitted by prior generations and on climate management. Figure 1. Cumulative

  17. Estimating soil carbon change and biofuel life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions with economic, ecosystem and life-cycle models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, Z.; Dunn, J.; Kwon, H. Y.; Mueller, S.; Wander, M.

    2015-12-01

    Land-use change (LUC) resulting from biofuel feedstock production can alter soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks of lands producing those crops and the crops they displace, possibly resulting in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. LUC GHG emissions included in biofuel life cycle analysis (LCA) have at times been estimated to be so great that biofuels did not offer a greenhouse gas reduction compared to conventional fossil fuels. To improve the accuracy of emissions estimates, SOC changes must be considered at a finer spatial resolution and take into account climate, soil, land use and management factors. This study reports on the incorporation of global LUC as predicted by a computable general equilibrium model (i.e., GTAP) and spatially-explicit modeled SOC estimates (using surrogate CENTURY) for various biofuel feedstock scenarios into a widely-used LCA model (i.e., GREET). Resulting estimates suggest: SOC changes associated with domestic corn production might contribute 2-6% or offset as much as 5% of total corn ethanol life-cycle GHG emissions. On the other hand, domestic LUC GHG emissions for switchgrass ethanol have the potential offset up to 60% of GHG emissions in the fuel's life cycle. Further, large SOC sequestration is predicted for Miscanthus feedstock production, enabling Miscanthus-based ethanol systems to offset all life-cycle GHG emissions and create a net carbon sink. LUC GHG emissions for ethanol derived from corn stover are small compared to other sources. Total life-cycle GHG emissions (g CO2eq MJ-1, 100cm soil) were estimated to be 59-66 for corn ethanol, 14 for stover ethanol, 18-26 for switchgrass ethanol, and -7 - -0.6 for Miscanthus ethanol.

  18. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security in 2050 under a Range of Plausible Socioeconomic and Emissions Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiebe, K.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bodirsky, B.; Kavallari, A.; Mason-d'Croz, D.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; Robinson, S.; Sands, R.; Tabeau, A.; Willenbockel, D.; Islam, S.; van Meijl, H.; Mueller, C.; Robertson, R.

    2014-12-01

    Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. New work extends that analysis to cover a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from three general circulation models are combined with one crop model and five global economic models to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on yields, area, production, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar to 2050. Results show that yield impacts vary with changes in population, income and technology as well as emissions, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables.

  19. Changes in O3 and NO2 due to emissions from Fracking in the UK.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Archibald, Alexander; Ordonez, Carlos

    2016-04-01

    Poor air quality is a problem that affects millions of people around the world. Understanding the driving forces behind air pollution is complicated as the precursor gases which combine to produce air pollutants react in a highly non-linear manner and are subject to a range of atmospheric transport mechanisms compounded by the weather. A great deal of money has been spent on mitigating air pollution and so it's important to assess the impacts that new technologies that emit air pollutant precursors may have on local and regional air pollution. One of the most highly discussed new technologies that could impact air quality is the adoption of wide-scale hydraulic fracturing or "fracking" for natural gas. Indeed in regions of the USA where fracking is commonplace large levels of ozone (O3 - a key air pollutant) have been observed and attributed directly to the fracking process. In this study, a numerical modelling framework was used to assess possible impacts of fracking in the UK where at present no large scale fracking facilities are in operation. A number of emissions scenarios were developed for the principle gas phase air pollution precursors: the oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). These emissions scenarios were then used in a state-of-the-art numerical air quality model (the UK Met Office operational air quality forecasting model AQUM) to determine potential impacts related to fracking on UK air quality. Comparison of base model results and observations for the year 2013 of NOx, O3 and VOCs from the UK Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) showed that AQUM has good skill at simulating these gas phase air pollutants (O3 r=0.64, NMGE=0.3; NO2 r=0.62, NMGE=0.51). Analysis of the simulations with fracking emissions demonstrate that there are large changes in 1hr max NO2 (11.6±6.6 ppb) with modest increases in monthly mean NO2, throughout the British Isles (150±100 ppt). These results highlight that stringent measures should be

  20. Carbon dioxide emissions and change in prevalence of obesity and diabetes in the United States: an ecological study.

    PubMed

    Zheutlin, Alexander R; Adar, Sara D; Park, Sung Kyun

    2014-12-01

    Recent studies suggest that increasing levels of the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO2), may influence weight gain and thus may play a role in rising trends in obesity and diabetes. We conducted an ecological study to examine the associations between CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and changes in the prevalence of obesity and diabetes in the United States. County-level data on CO2 emissions, prevalence of obesity and diagnosed diabetes, other sociodemographic factors and neighborhood characteristics related to urbanicity, and fine particles (PM2.5) between 2004 and 2008 were obtained from the Vulcan Project, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and American Community Survey. Linear mixed effect modeling of 3019 counties for the associations between average CO2 emissions and changes in diabetes and obesity prevalence between 2004 and 2008 was performed. The average obesity and diabetes prevalence increased between 2004 and 2008 by 3.65% (SD: 1.88%) and 1.65% (SD: 1.70%), respectively. A marginally significant positive association between CO2 emission and changes in obesity prevalence was found with adjustment for sociodemographic factors, indicators of urbanicity and spatial autocorrelation (p-trend=0.06). The association became weaker and nonsignificant with further adjustment for PM2.5 (p-trend=0.17). There was a significant positive association between CO2 emission and changes in diabetes prevalence before controlling for PM2.5 (p-trend=0.05) but the association became null after controlling for PM2.5 (p-trend=0.49), suggesting that PM2.5 is a critical confounder in the association between CO2 emission and changes in diabetes prevalence. This study does not support the hypothesis that CO2 emissions, a leading driver of climate change, may be linked to increasing trends in obesity and diabetes, though there was an indication of possible link between CO2 and obesity.

  1. Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Change in Prevalence of Obesity and Diabetes in the United States: An Ecological Study

    PubMed Central

    Zheutlin, Alexander R.; Adar, Sara D.; Park, Sung Kyun

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies suggest that increasing levels of the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO2), may influence weight gain and thus may play a role in rising trends in obesity and diabetes. We conducted an ecological study to examine the associations between CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and changes in the prevalence of obesity and diabetes in the United States. County-level data on CO2 emissions, prevalence of obesity and diagnosed diabetes, other sociodemographic factors and neighborhood characteristics related to urbanicity, and fine particles (PM2.5) between 2004 and 2008 were obtained from the Vulcan Project, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and American Community Survey. Linear mixed effect modeling of 3019 counties for the associations between average CO2 emissions and changes in diabetes and obesity prevalence between 2004 and 2008 was performed. The average obesity and diabetes prevalence increased between 2004 and 2008 by 3.65% (SD: 1.88%) and 1.65% (SD: 1.70%), respectively. A marginally significant positive association between CO2 emission and changes in obesity prevalence was found with adjustment for sociodemographic factors, indicators of urbanicity and spatial autocorrelation (p-trend=0.06). The association became weaker and nonsignificant with further adjustment for PM2.5 (p-trend=0.17). There was a significant positive association between CO2 emission and changes in diabetes prevalence before controlling for PM2.5 (p-trend=0.05) but the association became null after controlling for PM2.5 (p-trend=0.49), suggesting PM2.5 is a critical confounder in the association between CO2 emission and changes in diabetes prevalence. This study does not support the hypothesis that CO2 emissions, a leading driver of climate change, may be linked to increasing trends in obesity and diabetes, though there was an indication of possible link between CO2 and obesity. PMID:25108606

  2. Influence of global changes on modeled ozone response to changes in local emissions and the policy implications for ozone abatement strategies in the US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avise, J. C.; Gonzalez Abraham, R.; Chung, S. H.; Lamb, B. K.; Salathe, E. P.; Zhang, Y.; Streets, D. G.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D.; Guenther, A. B.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Chen, J.

    2010-12-01

    As part of an ongoing analysis on the effects of global changes upon US air quality, we report results based upon the WRF/CMAQ and MM5/CMAQ modeling frameworks in terms of the effect that future climate (including associated sensitivities with land use and biogenic emissions) and future global emissions have on the sensitivity of modeled ozone response to US anthropogenic emissions changes. Results are presented in a manner that is consistent with the current use of models in the development of State Implementation Plans (SIP) to highlight the importance for regulators of evaluating the impact that global changes may have on the successfulness of regulatory policies. Results are based on representative years within a current decade (1990-1999 for MM5/CMAQ and 1995-2004 for WRF/CMAQ) and a future decade (2045-2054). Meteorological fields for the CMAQ simulations were obtained by downscaling results from the ECHAM5 and PCM global climate models using WRF and MM5, respectively. The future climate is based on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario (ECHAM5) and A2 scenario (PCM). The WRF and MM5 meteorology were used to drive the MEGAN biogenic emissions model, the SMOKE emissions processing system, and the CMAQ chemical transport model. WRF/CMAQ simulations were conducted on two nested domains covering most of the Northern Hemisphere from eastern Asia to North America (220-km horizontal resolution; hemispheric domain) and covering the continental US (36-km horizontal resolution; CONUS domain), while MM5/CMAQ simulations were conducted for the continental US only. Chemical boundary conditions for CONUS are modified to study the impact of global emissions changes. Future chemical boundary conditions for the WRF/CMAQ CONUS simulations were taken from results of the hemispheric simulations with global emissions based on IPCC A1B scenario; for the MM5/CMAQ simulations they were derived from results of the global chemical transport model MOZART

  3. Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO(2) emissions cannot be kept under control?

    PubMed

    Castro, L A Barreto de

    2010-03-01

    Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.

  4. Attribution of changes in global wetland methane emissions from pre-industrial to present using CLM4.5-BGC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paudel, Rajendra; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Hess, Peter G. M.; Meng, Lei; Riley, William J.

    2016-03-01

    An understanding of potential factors controlling methane emissions from natural wetlands is important to accurately project future atmospheric methane concentrations. Here, we examine the relative contributions of climatic and environmental factors, such as precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, wetland inundation extent, and land-use and land-cover change, on changes in wetland methane emissions from preindustrial to present day (i.e., 1850-2005). We apply a mechanistic methane biogeochemical model integrated in the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5), the land component of the Community Earth System Model. The methane model explicitly simulates methane production, oxidation, ebullition, transport through aerenchyma of plants, and aqueous and gaseous diffusion. We conduct a suite of model simulations from 1850 to 2005, with all changes in environmental factors included, and sensitivity studies isolating each factor. Globally, we estimate that preindustrial methane emissions were higher by 10% than present-day emissions from natural wetlands, with emissions changes from preindustrial to the present of +15%, -41%, and -11% for the high latitudes, temperate regions, and tropics, respectively. The most important change is due to the estimated change in wetland extent, due to the conversion of wetland areas to drylands by humans. This effect alone leads to higher preindustrial global methane fluxes by 33% relative to the present, with the largest change in temperate regions (+80%). These increases were partially offset by lower preindustrial emissions due to lower CO2 levels (10%), shifts in precipitation (7%), lower nitrogen deposition (3%), and changes in land-use and land-cover (2%). Cooler temperatures in the preindustrial regions resulted in our simulations in an increase in global methane emissions of 6% relative to present day. Much of the sensitivity to these perturbations is mediated in the model by changes in

  5. Attribution of changes in global wetland methane emissions from pre-industrial to present using CLM4.5-BGC

    DOE PAGES

    Paudel, Rajendra; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Hess, Peter G. M.; ...

    2016-03-10

    An understanding of potential factors controlling methane emissions from natural wetlands is important to accurately project future atmospheric methane concentrations. Here, we examine the relative contributions of climatic and environmental factors, such as precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, wetland inundation extent, and land-use and land-cover change, on changes in wetland methane emissions from preindustrial to present day (i.e., 1850-2005). We apply a mechanistic methane biogeochemical model integrated in the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5), the land component of the Community Earth System Model. The methane model explicitly simulates methane production, oxidation, ebullition, transport through aerenchyma of plants,more » and aqueous and gaseous diffusion. We conduct a suite of model simulations from 1850 to 2005, with all changes in environmental factors included, and sensitivity studies isolating each factor. Globally, we estimate that preindustrial methane emissions were higher by 10% than present-day emissions from natural wetlands, with emissions changes from preindustrial to the present of +15%, -41%, and -11% for the high latitudes, temperate regions, and tropics, respectively. The most important change is due to the estimated change in wetland extent, due to the conversion of wetland areas to drylands by humans. This effect alone leads to higher preindustrial global methane fluxes by 33% relative to the present, with the largest change in temperate regions (+80%). These increases were partially offset by lower preindustrial emissions due to lower CO2 levels (10%), shifts in precipitation (7%), lower nitrogen deposition (3%), and changes in land-use and land-cover (2%). Cooler temperatures in the preindustrial regions resulted in our simulations in an increase in global methane emissions of 6% relative to present day. Much of the sensitivity to these perturbations is mediated in the model by

  6. Attribution of changes in global wetland methane emissions from pre-industrial to present using CLM4.5-BGC

    SciTech Connect

    Paudel, Rajendra; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Hess, Peter G. M.; Meng, Lei; Riley, William J.

    2016-03-10

    An understanding of potential factors controlling methane emissions from natural wetlands is important to accurately project future atmospheric methane concentrations. Here, we examine the relative contributions of climatic and environmental factors, such as precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, wetland inundation extent, and land-use and land-cover change, on changes in wetland methane emissions from preindustrial to present day (i.e., 1850-2005). We apply a mechanistic methane biogeochemical model integrated in the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5), the land component of the Community Earth System Model. The methane model explicitly simulates methane production, oxidation, ebullition, transport through aerenchyma of plants, and aqueous and gaseous diffusion. We conduct a suite of model simulations from 1850 to 2005, with all changes in environmental factors included, and sensitivity studies isolating each factor. Globally, we estimate that preindustrial methane emissions were higher by 10% than present-day emissions from natural wetlands, with emissions changes from preindustrial to the present of +15%, -41%, and -11% for the high latitudes, temperate regions, and tropics, respectively. The most important change is due to the estimated change in wetland extent, due to the conversion of wetland areas to drylands by humans. This effect alone leads to higher preindustrial global methane fluxes by 33% relative to the present, with the largest change in temperate regions (+80%). These increases were partially offset by lower preindustrial emissions due to lower CO2 levels (10%), shifts in precipitation (7%), lower nitrogen deposition (3%), and changes in land-use and land-cover (2%). Cooler temperatures in the preindustrial regions resulted in our simulations in an increase in global methane emissions of 6% relative to present day. Much of the sensitivity to these perturbations is mediated in the

  7. Potential effects of changes in climate and emissions on distribution and fate of perfluorooctane sulfonate in the Bohai Rim, China.

    PubMed

    Su, Chao; Song, Shuai; Lu, Yonglong; Liu, Shijie; Giesy, John P; Chen, Deliang; Jenkins, Alan; Sweetman, Andrew J; Yvette, Baninla

    2017-09-13

    Climate change and emissions rates of contaminants are expected to affect distribution and fate of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in the environment, however, studies on these combined factors are rare. In this study, Perfluorooctane Sulfonate (PFOS) is used as an example to assess how those two factors synthetically affect fate and disposition of POPs in the Bohai Rim of China by using the Berkeley-Trent-Urban-Rural (BETR-Urban-Rural) model. We set up three climate change scenarios and four emission scenarios to conduct the simulations. The results show that climate change could have significant effects on the transport and fate of PFOS mainly including advection, inter-compartmental transfer under the "worst case" emission scenario. For most grids, a remarkable decrease in concentrations of PFOS are predicted for fresh water and urban soil in the future, with precipitation and temperature being predominant factors, whilst for coastal water and rural soil, an increasing trend is predicted. Additionally, predicted sum of sources to the Bohai Sea increases greater than removals from the Bohai Sea in the future, adding evidence that concentrations of PFOS in coastal water will increase more in the future. Under scenarios of reduced emissions and climate change, concentrations of PFOS in each compartment decreased more rapidly over time. We suggest that assessment of future climate change impacts on fate of PFOS could take emission reductions into consideration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Planting Jatropha curcas on Constrained Land: Emission and Effects from Land Use Change

    PubMed Central

    Firdaus, M. S.; Husni, M. H. A.

    2012-01-01

    A study was carried out to assess carbon emission and carbon loss caused from land use change (LUC) of converting a wasteland into a Jatropha curcas plantation. The study was conducted for 12 months at a newly established Jatropha curcas plantation in Port Dickson, Malaysia. Assessments of soil carbon dioxide (CO2) flux, changes of soil total carbon and plant biomass loss and growth were made on the wasteland and on the established plantation to determine the effects of land preparation (i.e., tilling) and removal of the wasteland's native vegetation. Overall soil CO2 flux showed no significant difference (P < 0.05) between the two plots while no significant changes (P < 0.05) on soil total carbon at both plots were detected. It took 1.5 years for the growth of Jatropha curcas to recover the biomass carbon stock lost during land conversion. As far as the present study is concerned, converting wasteland to Jatropha curcas showed no adverse effects on the loss of carbon from soil and biomass and did not exacerbate soil respiration. PMID:22545018

  9. Evidence for a bipolar change in distortion product otoacoustic emissions during contralateral acoustic stimulation in humans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, Jörg; Janssen, Thomas; Heppelmann, Guido; Wagner, Wolfgang

    2005-12-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the activity of the medial olivocochlear (MOC) efferents during contralateral (CAS) and ipsilateral acoustic stimulation (IAS) by recording distortion product otoacoustic emission (DPOAE) suppression and DPOAE adaptation in humans. The main question was: do large bipolar changes in DPOAE level (transition from enhancement to suppression) also occur in humans when changing the primary tone level within a small range as described by Maison and Liberman for guinea pigs [J. Neurosci. 20, 4701-4707 (2000)]? In the present study, large bipolar changes in DPOAE level (14 dB on average across subjects) were found during CAS predominantly at frequencies where dips in the DPOAE fine structure occurred. Thus, effects of the second DPOAE source might be responsible for the observed bipolar effect. In contrast, comparable effects were not found during IAS as was reported in guinea pigs. Reproducibility of CAS DPOAEs was better than that for IAS DPOAEs. Thus, contralateral DPOAE suppression is suggested to be superior to ipsilateral DPOAE adaptation with regard to measuring the MOC reflex strength and for evaluating the vulnerability of the cochlea to acoustic overexposure in a clinical context.

  10. Regional changes in extravascular lung water detected by positron emission tomography

    SciTech Connect

    Schuster, D.P.; Marklin, G.F.; Mintun, M.A.

    1986-04-01

    Regional measurements of extravascular lung water (rEVLW) were made with positron emission tomography (PET) and 15O-labeled radionuclides. The label used to measure the total lung water (TLW) content fully equilibrated with TLW prior to scanning in both dogs with normal and low cardiac outputs, and nearly so in areas of lung made edematous by oleic acid injury (the TLW values used were 97% of maximum values). Regional EVLW measurements made by PET (EVLW-PET) and gravimetric techniques in both normal and edematous lung were closely correlated (r = 0.93), and EVLW-PET increased from an average of 0.20 to 0.37 mlH/sub 2/O/ml lung (P less than 0.05) after regional lung injury. PET measurements of regional blood volume always decreased (from an average of 0.12 to 0.09 ml blood/ml lung (P less than 0.05)) after cardiac output was lowered by hemorrhage in a separate set of animals. Total EVLW (by thermodye indicator dilution) did not change. Likewise, regional EVLW remained constant in areas below the left atrium but decreased in areas above the left atrium. We conclude that PET measurements are accurate, noninvasive, and reproducible and that regional changes may be detected even when measurements of total EVLW by other methods may fail to change significantly.

  11. Apomorphine-induced changes in synaptic dopamine levels: positron emission tomography evidence for presynaptic inhibition.

    PubMed

    de La Fuente-Fernández, R; Lim, A S; Sossi, V; Holden, J E; Calne, D B; Ruth, T J; Stoessl, A J

    2001-10-01

    The authors developed a novel positron emission tomography method to estimate changes in the synaptic level of dopamine ([DA]) induced by direct dopamine agonists (for example, apomorphine) in patients with Parkinson disease. The method is based on the typical asymmetry of the nigrostriatal lesion that often occurs in Parkinson disease. Using the between-side difference (ipsilateral (I) and contralateral (C) putamen to the more affected body side) of the inverse of the putamen [11C]raclopride binding potential (BP), the authors obtained [equation: see text] at baseline (that is, before apomorphine administration) and [equation: see text] after apomorphine administration (assuming the concentration of apomorphine is equal in both putamina). The between-side difference in the estimated synaptic concentration of dopamine (diff[DA]) should remain constant unless apomorphine affects dopamine release differently between the two sides. The authors found that apomorphine given subcutaneously at doses of 0.03 and 0.06 mg/kg induced significant changes in their estimate of diff[DA] (P < 0.05). Such changes were more pronounced when only patients with a stable response to levodopa were considered (P < 0.01). These findings provide in vivo evidence that direct dopamine agonists can inhibit the release of endogenous dopamine. The authors propose that this effect is mainly mediated by the activation of presynaptic D2/D3 dopamine receptors.

  12. Estimating changes in urban ozone concentrations due to life cycle emissions from hydrogen transportation systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Guihua; Ogden, Joan M.; Chang, Daniel P. Y.

    Hydrogen has been proposed as a low polluting alternative transportation fuel that could help improve urban air quality. This paper examines the potential impact of introducing a hydrogen-based transportation system on urban ambient ozone concentrations. This paper considers two scenarios, where significant numbers of new hydrogen vehicles are added to a constant number of gasoline vehicles. In our scenarios hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) are introduced in Sacramento, California at market penetrations of 9% and 20%. From a life cycle analysis (LCA) perspective, considering all the emissions involved in producing, transporting, and using hydrogen, this research compares three hypothetical natural gas to hydrogen pathways: (1) on-site hydrogen production; (2) central hydrogen production with pipeline delivery; and (3) central hydrogen production with liquid hydrogen truck delivery. Using a regression model, this research shows that the daily maximum temperature correlates well with atmospheric ozone formation. However, increases in initial VOC and NO x concentrations do not necessarily increase the peak ozone concentration, and may even cause it to decrease. It is found that ozone formation is generally limited by NO x in the summer and is mostly limited by VOC in the fall in Sacramento. Of the three hydrogen pathways, the truck delivery pathway contributes the most to ozone precursor emissions. Ozone precursor emissions from the truck pathway at 9% market penetration can cause additional 3-h average VOC (or NO x) concentrations up to approximately 0.05% (or 1%) of current pollution levels, and at 20% market penetration up to approximately 0.1% (or 2%) of current pollution levels. However, all of the hydrogen pathways would result in very small (either negative or positive) changes in ozone air quality. In some cases they will result in worse ozone air quality (mostly in July, August, and September), and in some cases they will result in better ozone air quality

  13. Natural variability versus human impact: Hydroclimate variability and the role of agriculture in changing dust emissions from Australia.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marx, Samuel; Kamber, Balz; McGowan, Hamish; Hooper, James; Zawadzki, Atun

    2016-04-01

    Broad-scale dust emissions play an important role in Earth systems, for example influencing oceanic productivity via phytoplankton fertilisation. Existing palaeo dust records show that dust emissions vary significantly in time, implying its impact is similarly variable. There remains, however, a paucity of records which quantify variability in dust emissions. This study presents continuous, Holocene-aged, records of dust emissions from Australia, an important global dust source. Records demonstrate that rates of dust export have varied by 8-30 times over the mid to late Holocene. This variability is largely attributed to hydroclimate variability and its associated feedbacks within dust source areas. Significantly, however, a major disruption of dust emission rates is recorded in the past 200 years when dust emissions increased by between 2-10 times rates of natural variability in dust export. This change is concomitant with the arrival of Europeans in Australia and is primarily attributed to the development of agriculture which resulted in unprecedented environmental change in Australia's arid interior. This result broadly accords with the few other existing empirical dust records which both pre-date and post-date the onset of agriculture in various arid and semi-arid regions. Collectively, these records imply the impact of dust in Earth systems has changed as a result of agricultural development.

  14. Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pascale, Salvatore; Lucarini, Valerio; Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; ul Hasson, Shabeh

    2016-02-01

    In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models contributing to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to quantify the concentration of annual rainfall and the number of dry months and to build a monsoon dimensionless seasonality index (DSI). The RE is projected to increase, with high inter-model agreement over Mediterranean-type regions—southern Europe, northern Africa and southern Australia—and areas of South and Central America, implying an increase in the number of dry days up to 1 month by the end of the twenty-first century. Positive RE changes are also projected over the monsoon regions of southern Africa and North America, South America. These trends are consistent with a shortening of the wet season associated with a more prolonged pre-monsoonal dry period. The extent of the global monsoon region, characterized by large DSI, is projected to remain substantially unaltered. Centroid analysis shows that most of CMIP5 projections suggest that the monsoonal annual rainfall distribution is expected to change from early to late in the course of the hydrological year by the end of the twenty-first century and particularly after year 2050. This trend is particularly evident over northern Africa, southern Africa and western Mexico, where more than 90 % of the models project a delay of the rainfall centroid from a few days up to 2 weeks. Over the remaining monsoonal regions, there is little inter-model agreement in terms of centroid changes.

  15. Changes of Land Cover and Land Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Northern Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuang, Q.; Melillo, J.; Reilly, J.; McGuire, A.; Prinn, R.; Shvidenko, A.; Tchebakova, N.; Sirin, A.; Maksyutov, S.; Peregon, A.

    2009-04-01

    Northern Eurasia accounts for about 20% of the Earth's land surface and 60% of the terrestrial land cover north of 40°N. It contains 70% of the Earth's boreal forests and more than two-thirds of the Earth's land that is underlain by permafrost. The region is covered by vast areas of peatland, complex tundra in the north and semi-deserts and deserts in the south, including the Mongolia plateau. The surface air temperature has increased in the last half century and this increase will continue during this century. We present the results of climate change effects on biogeochemical processes and mechanisms governing the carbon and water dynamics in the region. Future research will address on how patterns of land use in Northern Eurasia may change in the future due to: 1) Economic pressures for providing food, fiber and fuel to a growing global population; 2) Expansion of management of land for cropping, pasture, and forestry into areas that experience a more favorable climate in the future; and 3) Abandonment of management in areas that experience a less favorable climate and the implications of these changes for (1) the exchange of CO2 and CH4 between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere; (2) terrestrial carbon storage and primary productivity; (3) water supply; and (4) radiative forcing of the atmosphere through changes in surface albedo. We use a system of linked models that include the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model of the world economy, the SiBCliM bioclimatic vegetation model, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) with land-cover/ land-use modeling and biogeochemical modeling based on current relationships as observed through satellite and remote sensing data.

  16. Historical Pattern and Future Trajectories of Terrestrial N2O Emission driven by Multi-factor Global Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, C.; Tian, H.; Yang, J.; Zhang, B.; Xu, R.

    2015-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is among the most important greenhouse gases only next to carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) due to its long life time and high radiative forcing (with a global warming potential 265 times as much as CO2 at 100-year time horizon). The Atmospheric concentration of N2O has increased by 20% since pre-industrial era, and this increase plays a significant role in shaping anthropogenic climate change. However, compared to CO2- and CH4-related research, fewer studies have been performed in assessing and predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of N2O emission from natural and agricultural soils. Here we used a coupled biogeochemical model, DLEM, to quantify the historical and future changes in global terrestrial N2O emissions resulting from natural and anthropogenic perturbations including climate variability, atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, land use and land cover changes, and agricultural land management practices (i.e., synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use, manure application, and irrigation etc.) over the period 1900-2099. We focused on inter-annual variation and long-term trend of terrestrial N2O emission driven by individual and combined environmental changes during historical and future periods. The sensitivity of N2O emission to climate, atmospheric composition, and human activities has been examined at biome-, latitudinal, continental and global scales. Future projections were conducted to identify the hot spots and hot time periods of global N2O emission under two emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). It provides a modeling perspective for understanding human-induced N2O emission growth and developing potential management strategies to mitigate further atmospheric N2O increase and climate warming.

  17. Warmer temperature accelerates methane emissions from the Zoige wetland on the Tibetan Plateau without changing methanogenic community composition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, Mengmeng; Ma, Anzhou; Qi, Hongyan; Zhuang, Xuliang; Zhuang, Guoqiang; Zhao, Guohui

    2015-06-01

    Zoige wetland, locating on the Tibet Plateau, accounts for 6.2% of organic carbon storage in China. However, the fate of the organic carbon storage in the Zoige wetland remains poorly understood despite the Tibetan Plateau is very sensitive to global climate change. As methane is an important greenhouse gas and methanogenesis is the terminal step in the decomposition of organic matter, understanding how methane emissions from the Zoige wetland is fundamental to elucidate the carbon cycle in alpine wetlands responding to global warming. In this study, microcosms were performed to investigate the effects of temperature and vegetation on methane emissions and microbial processes in the Zoige wetland soil. A positive correlation was observed between temperature and methane emissions. However, temperature had no effect on the main methanogenic pathway—acetotrophic methanogenesis. Moreover, methanogenic community composition was not related to temperature, but was associated with vegetation, which was also involved in methane emissions. Taken together, these results indicate temperature increases methane emissions in alpine wetlands, while vegetation contributes significantly to methanogenic community composition and is associated with methane emissions. These findings suggest that in alpine wetlands temperature and vegetation act together to affect methane emissions, which furthers a global warming feedback loop.

  18. Restoring tides to reduce methane emissions in impounded wetlands: A new and potent Blue Carbon climate change intervention.

    PubMed

    Kroeger, Kevin D; Crooks, Stephen; Moseman-Valtierra, Serena; Tang, Jianwu

    2017-09-20

    Coastal wetlands are sites of rapid carbon (C) sequestration and contain large soil C stocks. Thus, there is increasing interest in those ecosystems as sites for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission offset projects (sometimes referred to as "Blue Carbon"), through preservation of existing C stocks or creation of new wetlands to increase future sequestration. Here we show that in the globally-widespread occurrence of diked, impounded, drained and tidally-restricted salt marshes, substantial methane (CH4) and CO2 emission reductions can be achieved through restoration of disconnected saline tidal flows. Modeled climatic forcing indicates that tidal restoration to reduce emissions has a much greater impact per unit area than wetland creation or conservation to enhance sequestration. Given that GHG emissions in tidally-restricted, degraded wetlands are caused by human activity, they are anthropogenic emissions, and reducing them will have an effect on climate that is equivalent to reduced emission of an equal quantity of fossil fuel GHG. Thus, as a landuse-based climate change intervention, reducing CH4 emissions is an entirely distinct concept from biological C sequestration projects to enhance C storage in forest or wetland biomass or soil, and will not suffer from the non-permanence risk that stored C will be returned to the atmosphere.

  19. Restoring tides to reduce methane emissions in impounded wetlands: A new and potent Blue Carbon climate change intervention

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kroeger, Kevin D.; Crooks, Stephen; Moseman-Valtierra, Serena; Tang, Jianwu

    2017-01-01

    Coastal wetlands are sites of rapid carbon (C) sequestration and contain large soil C stocks. Thus, there is increasing interest in those ecosystems as sites for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission offset projects (sometimes referred to as “Blue Carbon”), through preservation of existing C stocks or creation of new wetlands to increase future sequestration. Here we show that in the globally-widespread occurrence of diked, impounded, drained and tidally-restricted salt marshes, substantial methane (CH4) and CO2 emission reductions can be achieved through restoration of disconnected saline tidal flows. Modeled climatic forcing indicates that tidal restoration to reduce emissions has a much greater impact per unit area than wetland creation or conservation to enhance sequestration. Given that GHG emissions in tidally-restricted, degraded wetlands are caused by human activity, they are anthropogenic emissions, and reducing them will have an effect on climate that is equivalent to reduced emission of an equal quantity of fossil fuel GHG. Thus, as a landuse-based climate change intervention, reducing CH4 emissions is an entirely distinct concept from biological C sequestration projects to enhance C storage in forest or wetland biomass or soil, and will not suffer from the non-permanence risk that stored C will be returned to the atmosphere.

  20. Warmer temperature accelerates methane emissions from the Zoige wetland on the Tibetan Plateau without changing methanogenic community composition

    PubMed Central

    Cui, Mengmeng; Ma, Anzhou; Qi, Hongyan; Zhuang, Xuliang; Zhuang, Guoqiang; Zhao, Guohui

    2015-01-01

    Zoige wetland, locating on the Tibet Plateau, accounts for 6.2% of organic carbon storage in China. However, the fate of the organic carbon storage in the Zoige wetland remains poorly understood despite the Tibetan Plateau is very sensitive to global climate change. As methane is an important greenhouse gas and methanogenesis is the terminal step in the decomposition of organic matter, understanding how methane emissions from the Zoige wetland is fundamental to elucidate the carbon cycle in alpine wetlands responding to global warming. In this study, microcosms were performed to investigate the effects of temperature and vegetation on methane emissions and microbial processes in the Zoige wetland soil. A positive correlation was observed between temperature and methane emissions. However, temperature had no effect on the main methanogenic pathway—acetotrophic methanogenesis. Moreover, methanogenic community composition was not related to temperature, but was associated with vegetation, which was also involved in methane emissions. Taken together, these results indicate temperature increases methane emissions in alpine wetlands, while vegetation contributes significantly to methanogenic community composition and is associated with methane emissions. These findings suggest that in alpine wetlands temperature and vegetation act together to affect methane emissions, which furthers a global warming feedback loop. PMID:26109512

  1. Recent and predicted changes in atmospheric composition over the United States from climate, emissions, and pine beetles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heald, C. L.; Berg, A.; Val Martin, M.; Meddens, A. J.; Hicke, J. A.; Huff Hartz, K. E.; Lamarque, J.; Tilmes, S.; Emmons, L. K.

    2012-12-01

    Changes in emissions, climate and land use all play a key role in modulating the composition of the troposphere. In this talk I will cover two topics related to this theme. First, to examine the relative impacts of these effects, I will discuss predicted changes in air quality (PM and ozone) by 2050 over the United States following the latest RCP scenarios in the Community Earth System Model. Second, as an example of climate-biosphere-atmosphere interactions, I will discuss the impact of the recent mountain pine beetle outbreak on VOC emissions and organic aerosol concentrations in Western North America over the last decade.

  2. Use of U.S. croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change.

    PubMed

    Searchinger, Timothy; Heimlich, Ralph; Houghton, R A; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani; Fabiosa, Jacinto; Tokgoz, Simla; Hayes, Dermot; Yu, Tun-Hsiang

    2008-02-29

    Most prior studies have found that substituting biofuels for gasoline will reduce greenhouse gases because biofuels sequester carbon through the growth of the feedstock. These analyses have failed to count the carbon emissions that occur as farmers worldwide respond to higher prices and convert forest and grassland to new cropland to replace the grain (or cropland) diverted to biofuels. By using a worldwide agricultural model to estimate emissions from land-use change, we found that corn-based ethanol, instead of producing a 20% savings, nearly doubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years and increases greenhouse gases for 167 years. Biofuels from switchgrass, if grown on U.S. corn lands, increase emissions by 50%. This result raises concerns about large biofuel mandates and highlights the value of using waste products.

  3. Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Searchinger, Timothy; Heimlich, Ralph; Houghton, R. A.; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani; Fabiosa, Jacinto; Tokgoz, Simla; Hayes, Dermot; Yu, Tun-Hsiang

    2008-02-01

    Most prior studies have found that substituting biofuels for gasoline will reduce greenhouse gases because biofuels sequester carbon through the growth of the feedstock. These analyses have failed to count the carbon emissions that occur as farmers worldwide respond to higher prices and convert forest and grassland to new cropland to replace the grain (or cropland) diverted to biofuels. By using a worldwide agricultural model to estimate emissions from land-use change, we found that corn-based ethanol, instead of producing a 20% savings, nearly doubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years and increases greenhouse gases for 167 years. Biofuels from switchgrass, if grown on U.S. corn lands, increase emissions by 50%. This result raises concerns about large biofuel mandates and highlights the value of using waste products.

  4. Gaining ground in the modeling of land-use change greenhouse gas emissions associated with biofuel production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunn, J.; Mueller, S.; Kwon, H.; Wang, M.; Wander, M.

    2012-12-01

    Land-use change (LUC) resulting from biofuel feedstock production and the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are a hotly-debated aspect of biofuels. Certainly, LUC GHG emissions are one of the most uncertain elements in life cycle analyses (LCA) of biofuels. To estimate LUC GHG emissions, two sets of data are necessary. First, information on the amount and type of land that is converted to biofuel feedstock production is required. These data are typically generated through application of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models such as Purdue University's Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. Second, soil carbon content data for the affected land types is essential. Recently, Argonne National Laboratory's Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB) has been updated with CGE modeling results that estimate the amount and type of LUC world-wide from production of ethanol from corn, corn stover, miscanthus, and switchgrass (Mueller et al. 2012). Moreover, we have developed state-specific carbon content data, determined through modeling with CENTURY, for the two most dominant soil types in the conterminous 48 U.S. states (Kwon et al. 2012) to enable finer-resolution results for domestic LUC GHG emissions for these ethanol production scenarios. Of the feedstocks examined, CCLUB estimates that LUC GHG emissions are highest for corn ethanol (9.1 g CO2e/MJ ethanol) and lowest for miscanthus (-12 g CO2e/MJ ethanol). We will present key observations from CCLUB results incorporated into Argonne National Laboratory's Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model, which is a LCA tool for transportation fuels and advanced vehicle technologies. We will discuss selected issues in this modeling, including the sensitivity of domestic soil carbon emission factors to modeling parameters and assumptions about the fate of harvested wood products. Further, we will discuss efforts to update CCLUB with county

  5. Uncertainty in projected climate change caused by methodological discrepancy in estimating CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quilcaille, Yann; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Lecocq, Franck; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Mohr, Steve; Andres, Robert J.; Bopp, Laurent

    2016-04-01

    There are different methodologies to estimate CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The term "methodology" refers to the way subtypes of fossil fuels are aggregated and their implied emissions factors. This study investigates how the choice of a methodology impacts historical and future CO2 emissions, and ensuing climate change projections. First, we use fossil fuel extraction data from the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand model of Mohr et al. (2015). We compare four different methodologies to transform amounts of fossil fuel extracted into CO2 emissions based on the methodologies used by Mohr et al. (2015), CDIAC, EDGARv4.3, and IPCC 1996. We thus obtain 4 emissions pathways, for the historical period 1750-2012, that we compare to the emissions timeseries from EDGARv4.3 (1970-2012) and CDIACv2015 (1751-2011). Using the 3 scenarios by Mohr et al. (2015) for projections till 2300 under the assumption of an Early (Low emission), Best Guess or Late (High emission) extraction peaking, we obtain 12 different pathways of CO2 emissions over 1750-2300. Second, we extend these CO2-only pathways to all co-emitted and climatically active species. Co-emission ratios for CH4, CO, BC, OC, SO2, VOC, N2O, NH3, NOx are calculated on the basis of the EDGAR v4.3 dataset, and are then used to produce complementary pathways of non-CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion only. Finally, the 12 emissions scenarios are integrated using the compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2, in order to quantify the impact of the selected driver onto climate change projections. We find historical cumulative fossil fuel CO2 emissions from 1750 to 2012 ranging from 365 GtC to 392 GtC depending upon the methodology used to convert fossil fuel into CO2 emissions. We notice a drastic increase of the impact of the methodology in the projections. For the High emission scenario with Late fuel extraction peaking, cumulated CO2 emissions from 1700 to 2100 range from 1505 GtC to 1685 GtC; this corresponds

  6. Simulated changes in biogenic VOC emissions and ozone formation from habitat expansion of Acer Rubrum (red maple)

    DOE PAGES

    Drewniak, Beth A.; Snyder, Peter K.; Steiner, Allison L.; ...

    2014-01-17

    A new vegetation trend is emerging in northeastern forests of the United States, characterized by an expansion of red maple at the expense of oak. This has changed emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), primarily isoprene and monoterpenes. Oaks strongly emit isoprene while red maple emits a negligible amount. This species shift may impact nearby urban centers because the interaction of isoprene with anthropogenic nitrogen oxides can lead to tropospheric ozone formation and monoterpenes can lead to the formation of particulate matter. Here in this study the Global Biosphere Emissions and Interactions System was used to estimate the spatialmore » changes in BVOC emission fluxes resulting from a shift in forest composition between oak and maple. A 70% reduction in isoprene emissions occurred when oak was replaced with maple. Ozone simulations with a chemical box model at two rural and two urban sites showed modest reductions in ozone concentrations of up to 5–6 ppb resulting from a transition from oak to red maple, thus suggesting that the observed change in forest composition may benefit urban air quality. This study illustrates the importance of monitoring and representing changes in forest composition and the impacts to human health indirectly through changes in BVOCs.« less

  7. Simulated changes in biogenic VOC emissions and ozone formation from habitat expansion of Acer Rubrum (red maple)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drewniak, Beth A.; Snyder, Peter K.; Steiner, Allison L.; Twine, Tracy E.; Wuebbles, Donald J.

    2014-01-01

    A new vegetation trend is emerging in northeastern forests of the United States, characterized by an expansion of red maple at the expense of oak. This has changed emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), primarily isoprene and monoterpenes. Oaks strongly emit isoprene while red maple emits a negligible amount. This species shift may impact nearby urban centers because the interaction of isoprene with anthropogenic nitrogen oxides can lead to tropospheric ozone formation and monoterpenes can lead to the formation of particulate matter. In this study the Global Biosphere Emissions and Interactions System was used to estimate the spatial changes in BVOC emission fluxes resulting from a shift in forest composition between oak and maple. A 70% reduction in isoprene emissions occurred when oak was replaced with maple. Ozone simulations with a chemical box model at two rural and two urban sites showed modest reductions in ozone concentrations of up to 5-6 ppb resulting from a transition from oak to red maple, thus suggesting that the observed change in forest composition may benefit urban air quality. This study illustrates the importance of monitoring and representing changes in forest composition and the impacts to human health indirectly through changes in BVOCs.

  8. N2O emissions in tropical rainforest and rubber plantation, the indicator from landuse changing in Xishuangbanna, Southwest China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Wenjun; Zhu, Jing; Ji, Hong-li; Zhang, Yi-Ping; Sha, Li-Qing; Gao, Jin-Bo; Zhang, Jun-Hui; Zheng, Xunhua

    2017-04-01

    To understand the effects of landuse on N2O emissions and local climate change in the tropics, we measured N2O fluxes from a primary tropical rainforest (TRF, with treatments of litter removal and control) and a fertilized rubber plantation (RP, with treatments of fertilization (75 kg N ha-1 yr-1) and unfertilization) at Xishuangbanna, southwest China since 2012. The results have shown: 1) Fertilized RP N2O emission is bimodel, one peak after dry season fertilizer, another after rainy season fertilizer. Otherwise, the unfertilized RP and TRF have the similar seasonal dynamic with one peak in the middle of rainy season. 2) due to the fertilizer influence, the poaitive correlation between soil temperature/soil moisture and N2O was more significantly in unfertilized RP than fertilized RP respectively litter input changed the dominated controller of N2O emission in TRF: litter carbon input and soil DOC content for control treatment and, soil temperature and soil NO3- -N for litter removal treatment. 3) lab incubation indicated denitrification and nitrification as the main source for N2O emission in TRF and RP, respectively. 4) The N2O emissions from the fertilized and unfertilized plots in RP were 4.0 and 2.5 kg N ha-1 yr-1, respectively, from control and litter removal plots in TRF were 0.48 and 0.32 kg N ha-1 yr-1,respectively. 5) 100-year carbon dioxide equivalence of N2O from fertilized RP offsets 5.8% and 31.5% of carbon sink of the rubber plantation and local TRF, respectively. Upscaling it to the whole Xishuangbanna, N2O emissions from fertilized RP offset 17.1% of the tropical rainforest's carbon sink. When tropical rainforests are converted to fertilized rubber plantations, the N2O emission seasonal dynamic and mechanisms changed, the global warming effect is enhanced.

  9. N2O emissions in tropical rainforest and rubber plantation, the indicator from landuse changing in Xishuangbanna, Southwest China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, W. J.; Zhu, J.; Ji, H. L.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, J.; Zheng, X.

    2016-12-01

    To understand the effects of landuse on N2O emissions and local climate change in the tropics, we measured N2O fluxes from a primary tropical rainforest (TRF, with treatments of litter removal and control) and a fertilized rubber plantation (RP, with treatments of fertilization (75 kg N ha-1 yr-1) and unfertilization) at Xishuangbanna, southwest China since 2012. The results have shown: 1) Fertilized RP N2O emission is bimodel, one peak after dry season fertilizer, another after rainy season fertilizer. Otherwise, the unfertilized RP and TRF have the similar seasonal dynamic with one peak in the middle of rainy season. 2) due to the fertilizer influence, the poaitive correlation between soil temperature/soil moisture and N2O was more significantly in unfertilized RP than fertilized RP respectively litter input changed the dominated controller of N2O emission in TRF: litter carbon input and soil DOC content for control treatment and, soil temperature and soil NO3- -N for litter removal treatment. 3) lab incubation indicated denitrification and nitrification as the main source for N2O emission in TRF and RP, respectively. 4) The N2O emissions from the fertilized and unfertilized plots in RP were 4.0 and 2.5 kg N ha-1 yr-1, respectively, from control and litter removal plots in TRF were 0.48 and 0.32 kg N ha-1 yr-1,respectively. 5) 100-year carbon dioxide equivalence of N2O from fertilized RP offsets 5.8% and 31.5% of carbon sink of the rubber plantation and local TRF, respectively. Upscaling it to the whole Xishuangbanna, N2O emissions from fertilized RP offset 17.1% of the tropical rainforest's carbon sink. When tropical rainforests are converted to fertilized rubber plantations, the N2O emission seasonal dynamic and mechanisms changed, the global warming effect is enhanced.

  10. Ocean N2O Emissions : Recent Global Estimates and Anthropogenically Influenced Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suntharalingam, P.; Buithenuis, E.; Andrews, O.; Le Quere, C.

    2016-12-01

    Oceanic N2O is produced by microbial activity during organic matter cycling in the subsurface ocean; its production mechanisms display sensitivity to ambient oxygen level. In the oxic ocean, N2O is produced as a byproduct during the oxidation of ammonia to nitrate, mediated by ammonia oxidizing bacteria and archea. N2O is also produced and consumed in sub-oxic and anoxic waters through the action of marine denitrifiers during the multi-step reduction of nitrate to gaseous nitrogen. The oceanic N2O distribution therefore displays significant heterogeneity with background levels of 10-20 nmol/l in the well-oxygenated ocean basins, high concentrations (> 40 nmol/l) in hypoxic waters, and N2O depletion in the core of ocean oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). Oceanic N2O emissions are estimated to account for up to a third of the pre-industrial N2O fluxes to the atmosphere, however the natural cycle of ocean N2O has been perturbed in recent decades by inputs of anthropogenically derived nutrient, and by the impacts of climate change. Anthropogenic nitrogen inputs (e.g., NOx and NHy from fossil fuel combustion and agricultural fertilizer) enter the ocean via atmospheric deposition and riverine fluxes, influencing oceanic N2O production via their impact on the marine organic matter cycle. In addition, climate variations associated with surface ocean warming affect oceanic circulation and nutrient transport pathways, influencing marine productivity and the ventilation of oxygen minimum zones. Recent studies have suggested that possible expansion of oceanic OMZs in a warming climate could lead to significant changes in N2O production and fluxes from these regions. We will summarise the current state of knowledge on the ocean N2O budget and net flux to the atmosphere. Recently reported estimates have been based on (i) empirical relationships derived from ocean tracer data (e.g., involving excess N2O and Apparent Oxygen Utilization (AOU) correlations), (ii) ocean biogeochemical

  11. Sources of Asian dust and role of climate change versus desertification in Asian dust emission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, X. Y.; Gong, S. L.; Zhao, T. L.; Arimoto, R.; Wang, Y. Q.; Zhou, Z. J.

    2003-12-01

    Simulations of Asian dust emissions over the past 43 years are presented based on a size-dependent soil dust emission and transport model (NARCM) along with supporting data from a network of surface stations. The deserts in Mongolia and in western and northern China (mainly the Taklimakan and Badain Juran, respectively) contribute ~70% of the total dust emissions; non-Chinese sources account for ~40% of this. Several areas, especially the Onqin Daga sandy land, Horqin sandy land, and Mu Us Desert, have increased in dust emissions over the past 20 years, but efforts to reduce desertification in these areas may have little effect on Asian dust emission amount because these are not key sources. The model simulations indicate that meteorology and climate have had a greater influence on the Asian dust emissions and associated Asian dust storm occurrences than desertification.

  12. An Analysis of Health Impacts Associated with Pollutant Response to Changes in Emissions In Different Regions of Central California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tran, C.; Tanrikulu, S.; Beaver, S.; Hilken, H.

    2011-12-01

    Exposure to ozone and particulate matter has been shown to have considerable human health impacts. Currently major air basins of central California such as the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), Sacramento area, and the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) are all designated as in nonattainment of the Federal 8-hour ozone and 24-hour PM2.5 standards, despite California's comprehensive emission control programs for the last fifty years. Although these programs were very effective, decreasing anthropogenic emissions 40 to 50 percent in the region from 1990 to 2010 alone, the ambient response of pollutants was mixed and varied among these three interconnected regions. The purpose of this work was to investigate differences in each region's human health impact response to changes in emissions using the US EPA's BenMAP program. Inputs to BenMAP were prepared using the CMAQ model. Ambient concentrations were simulated for 2005. Then, anthropogenic emissions were reduced 10 to 60 percent across the board in 10 percent increments for the purpose of assessing pollutant responses to changes in emissions. BenMAP was run for each emission reduction scenario. The BenMAP results were normalized by county population to enable comparisons among counties that ranged from rural and agricultural to urban and densely populated. In all regions, the benefits of direct PM emission reductions were greater than those of similar precursor reductions. With respect to mortality rates, direct PM reductions produced the largest benefits in Nevada, Stanislaus, Tuolumne, and San Francisco Counties. For a 40 percent reduction in emissions, reductions in annual mortality rates ranged from 120 to 140 per million for these counties. Precursor emission reductions' benefits were maximized at the southern end of SJV, with Tulare showing the maximum reduction of around 83 mortalities per million. Monetized benefits of avoided mortalities as a result of direct PM emission reductions were significantly higher in

  13. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 mg m3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol

  14. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed

  15. Dynamic evaluation of CMAQ part I: Separating the effects of changing emissions and changing meteorology on ozone levels between 2002 and 2005 in the eastern US

    EPA Science Inventory

    A dynamic evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.0.1 was conducted to evaluate the model's ability to predict changes in ozone levels between 2002 and 2005, a time period characterized by emission reductions associated with the EPA's N...

  16. Dynamic evaluation of CMAQ part I: Separating the effects of changing emissions and changing meteorology on ozone levels between 2002 and 2005 in the eastern US

    EPA Science Inventory

    A dynamic evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.0.1 was conducted to evaluate the model's ability to predict changes in ozone levels between 2002 and 2005, a time period characterized by emission reductions associated with the EPA's N...

  17. Sensitivity analysis of ground-level ozone concentration to emission changes in two urban regions of southeast Texas.

    PubMed

    Lin, Che-Jen; Ho, Thomas C; Chu, Hsing-wei; Yang, Heng; Chandru, Santosh; Krishnarajanagar, Nagesh; Chiou, Paul; Hopper, Jack R

    2005-06-01

    Air pollutant emission is one of the predominant factors affecting urban air quality such as ground-level ozone formation. This paper assesses the impact of changing emission inventory scenarios, based on combinations of point, mobile, area/non-road and biogenic sources, on the tropospheric ozone concentration in two southeast Texas urban areas, i.e. Houston-Galveston and Beaumont-Port Arthur, during the rapid ozone formation event (ROFE) on August 25, 2000. The EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system with 1999 national emission inventory (NEI99) estimates and updated SAPRC99 chemical mechanism are used in the sensitivity analysis for twelve different emission scenarios. Based on model results, it is found that the point source emission of NOx and VOC contributes the greatest ozone peak in the ROFE. Removing Texas point sources of VOC and NOx emission from the inventory results in a reduction in peak O3 concentration by 128 and 70 ppbv in Houston urban area, respectively. Similar but less drastic impact from point source is also observed in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area. The effect on peak ozone concentration due to mobile, area and non-road sources emissions are less significant compared to that of point source emission. Reducing VOC emission appears to be more effective than reducing NOx emission in lowering peak O3 concentration in the studied region. Although biogenic emission can contribute up to 37 ppbv of peak ozone level over a large area, the affected area is away from the urban region of concern, and should not be the main cause for O3 non-attainment in the two urban areas. Removing CO emission from mobile sources does not lead to significant reduction (< 1 ppbv) in ozone concentrations. The modeled data also show that the transport of O3 precursors from adjacent states can cause a significant ozone plume near Beaumont due to its proximity to the state border based on the conditions during the August 25, 2000 O3 episode.

  18. EFFECTS OF CHANGING COALS ON THE EMISSIONS OF METAL HAZARDOUS AIR POLLUTANTS FROM THE COMBUSTION OF PULVERIZED COAL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report discusses tests conducted at EPA's Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division to evaluate the effects of changing coals on emissions of metal hazardous air pollutants from coal-fired boilers. Six coals were burned in a 29 kW (100,000 Btu/hr) down-fired combustor und...

  19. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Treesearch

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  20. EFFECTS OF CHANGING COALS ON THE EMISSIONS OF METAL HAZARDOUS AIR POLLUTANTS FROM THE COMBUSTION OF PULVERIZED COAL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report discusses tests conducted at EPA's Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division to evaluate the effects of changing coals on emissions of metal hazardous air pollutants from coal-fired boilers. Six coals were burned in a 29 kW (100,000 Btu/hr) down-fired combustor und...

  1. Developed and developing world contributions to climate system change based on carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Ting; Dong, Wenjie; Yan, Qing; Chou, Jieming; Yang, Zhiyong; Tian, Di

    2016-05-01

    One of the key issues in international climate negotiations is the formulation of targets for emissions reduction for all countries based on the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities". This formulation depends primarily on the quantitative attribution of the responsibilities of developed and developing countries for historical climate change. Using the Commuity Earth System Model (CESM), we estimate the responsibilities of developed countries and developing countries for climatic change from 1850 to 2005 using their carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions. The results indicate that developed countries contribute approximately 53%-61%, and developing countries approximately 39%-47%, to the increase in global air temperature, upper oceanic warming, sea-ice reduction in the NH, and permafrost degradation. In addition, the spatial heterogeneity of these changes from 1850 to 2005 is primarily attributed to the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in developed countries. Although uncertainties remain in the climate model and the external forcings used, GHG emissions in developed countries are the major contributor to the observed climate system changes in the 20th century.

  2. Decadal changes in global surface NOx emissions from multi-constituent satellite data assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miyazaki, Kazuyuki; Eskes, Henk; Sudo, Kengo; Folkert Boersma, K.; Bowman, Kevin; Kanaya, Yugo

    2017-01-01

    Global surface emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) over a 10-year period (2005-2014) are estimated from an assimilation of multiple satellite data sets: tropospheric NO2 columns from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2), and Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), O3 profiles from Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), CO profiles from Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT), and O3 and HNO3 profiles from Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) using an ensemble Kalman filter technique. Chemical concentrations of various species and emission sources of several precursors are simultaneously optimized. This is expected to improve the emission inversion because the emission estimates are influenced by biases in the modelled tropospheric chemistry, which can be partly corrected by also optimizing the concentrations. We present detailed distributions of the estimated emission distributions for all major regions, the diurnal and seasonal variability, and the evolution of these emissions over the 10-year period. The estimated regional total emissions show a strong positive trend over India (+29 % decade-1), China (+26 % decade-1), and the Middle East (+20 % decade-1), and a negative trend over the USA (-38 % decade-1), southern Africa (-8.2 % decade-1), and western Europe (-8.8 % decade-1). The negative trends in the USA and western Europe are larger during 2005-2010 relative to 2011-2014, whereas the trend in China becomes negative after 2011. The data assimilation also suggests a large uncertainty in anthropogenic and fire-related emission factors and an important underestimation of soil NOx sources in the emission inventories. Despite the large trends observed for individual regions, the global total emission is almost constant between 2005 (47.9 Tg N yr-1) and 2014 (47.5 Tg N yr-1).

  3. Atmospheric So2 Emissions Since the Late 1800s Change Organic Sulfur Forms in Humic Substance Extracts of Soils

    SciTech Connect

    Lehmann,J.; Solomon, D.; Zhao, F.; McGrath, S.

    2008-01-01

    Atmospheric SO2 emissions in the UK and globally increased 6- and 20-fold, respectively, from the mid-1800s to the 1960s resulting in increased S deposition, acid rain, and concurrent acidification of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Structural analyses using synchrotron-based X-ray near-edge spectroscopy (XANES) on humic substance extracts of archived samples from the Rothamsted Park Grass Experiment reveal a significant (R2 = -0.58; P < 0.05; N = 7) shift in soil organic sulfur (S) forms, from reduced to more oxidized organic S between 1876 and 1981, even though soil total S contents remained relatively constant. Over the last 30 years, a decrease in emissions and consequent S deposition has again corresponded with a change of organic S structures of humic extractsreverting in the direction of their early industrial composition. However, the observed reversal lagged behind reductions in emissions by 19 years, which was computed using cross correlations between time series data (R2 = 0.66; P = 0.0024; N = 11). Presently, the ratio of oxidized-to-reduced organic S in humic substance extracts is nearly double that of early industrial times at identical SO2 emission loads. The significant and persistent structural changes of organic S in humic substances as a response to SO2 emissions and S deposition may have effects on recuperation of soils and surface waters from acidification.

  4. Atmospheric SO2 emissions since the late 1800s change organic sulfur forms in humic substance extracts of soils.

    PubMed

    Lehmann, Johannes; Solomon, Dawit; Zhao, Fang-Jie; McGrath, Steve P

    2008-05-15

    Atmospheric SO2 emissions in the UK and globally increased 6- and 20-fold, respectively, from the mid-1800s to the 1960s resulting in increased S deposition, acid rain, and concurrent acidification of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Structural analyses using synchrotron-based X-ray near-edge spectroscopy (XANES) on humic substance extracts of archived samples from the Rothamsted Park Grass Experiment reveal a significant (R2 = -0.58; P < 0.05; N = 7) shift in soil organic sulfur (S) forms, from reduced to more oxidized organic S between 1876 and 1981, even though soil total S contents remained relatively constant. Over the last 30 years, a decrease in emissions and consequent S deposition has again corresponded with a change of organic S structures of humic extracts-reverting in the direction of their early industrial composition. However, the observed reversal lagged behind reductions in emissions by 19 years, which was computed using cross correlations between time series data (R2 = 0.66; P = 0.0024; N = 11). Presently, the ratio of oxidized-to-reduced organic S in humic substance extracts is nearly double that of early industrial times at identical SO2 emission loads. The significant and persistent structural changes of organic S in humic substances as a response to SO2 emissions and S deposition may have effects on recuperation of soils and surface waters from acidification.

  5. Aura OMI observations of changes in SO2 and NO2 emissions at local, regional and global scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krotkov, N. A.; McLinden, C. A.; Li, C.; Lamsal, L. N.; Celarier, E. A.; Marchenko, S. V.; Swartz, W.; Bucsela, E. J.; Joiner, J.; Duncan, B. N.; Boersma, K. F.; Veefkind, P.; Levelt, P.; Fioletov, V.; Dickerson, R. R.; He, H.; Lu, Z.; Streets, D. G.

    2015-12-01

    Space-based pollution monitoring from current and planned satellite UV-Vis spectrometers play an increasingly important role in studies of tropospheric chemistry and also air quality applications to help mitigate anthropogenic and natural impacts on sensitive ecosystems, and human health. We present long-term changes in tropospheric SO2 and NO2 over some of the most polluted industrialized regions of the world observed by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard NASA's Aura satellite. Using OMI data, we identified about 400 SO2 "hot spots" and estimated emissions from them. In many regions emissions and their ambient pollution levels have decreased significantly, such as over eastern US, Europe and China. OMI observed about 50% reduction in SO2 and NO2 pollution over the North China plain in 2012-2014 that can be attributed to both government efforts to restrain emissions from the power and industrial sectors and the economic slowdown. While much smaller, India's SO2 and NO2 emissions from coal power plants and smelters are growing at a fast pace, increasing by about 200% and 50% from 2005 to 2014. Over Europe and the US OMI-observed trends agree well with those from available in situ measurements of surface concentrations, deposition and emissions data. However, for some regions (e.g., Mexico, Middle East) the emission inventories may be incomplete and OMI can provide emission estimates for missing sources, such as SO2 sources observed over the Persian Gulf. It is essential to continue long-term overlapping satellite data records of air quality with increased spatial and temporal resolution to resolve point pollution sources using oversampling technique. We discuss how Aura OMI pollution measurements and emission estimates will be continued with the US JPSS and European Sentinel series for the next 20 years and further enhanced by the addition of three geostationary UV-VIS instruments.

  6. Concurrent changes in methyl jasmonate emission and the expression of its biosynthesis-related genes in Cymbidium ensifolium flowers.

    PubMed

    Huang, Mingkun; Ma, Cuiping; Yu, Rangcai; Mu, Lanling; Hou, Jia; Yu, Yunyi; Fan, Yanping

    2015-04-01

    Methyl jasmonate (MeJA) is one of most abundant scent compounds in Cymbidium ensifolium flowers. In this study, the emission of MeJA and its regulation mechanism were investigated. Our results showed that emission of MeJA in C. ensifolium flowers was controlled developmentally and rhythmically. It occurred in a tissue-specific manner, and high MeJA emission was found in sepals and petals. A group of vital genes involved in the MeJA biosynthesis via the octadecanoid pathway were isolated from C. ensifolium flowers, including CeLOX, CeAOS, CeAOC and CeJMT. MeJA emission was at very low levels in unopened or half-opened C. ensifolium flowers and reached its maximal level between day 4 and 6 and declined from day 7 to 10 postanthesis. The expression of CeLOX, CeAOS, CeAOC and CeJMT increased from day 1 to day 6, and then declined from day 7 to 10 postanthesis, corresponding to the change in MeJA emission. Moreover, the expression of CeLOX, CeAOS, CeAOC and CeJMT oscillated in a rhythmic manner could reach the maximum level between 8:00 h and 16:00 h, which coincided with the MeJA emission. The high level of MeJA emission in sepals and petals coincided with the high transcript levels. The results suggest that MeJA emission in C. ensifolium flower might be directly regulated at the transcription levels. Moreover, the recombinant protein of CeJMT could specifically catalyze the jasmonic acid to form the corresponding ester MeJA.

  7. Long-Term Changes in Gas- and Particle-Phase Emissions From On-Road Diesel and Gasoline Vehicles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ban-Weiss, G. A.; McLaughlin, J. P.; Harley, R. A.; Lunden, M. M.; Kirchstetter, T. W.; Kean, A. J.

    2007-12-01

    Gas- and particle-phase pollutants were measured separately for a) light-duty (LD) vehicles and b) medium- (MD) and heavy-duty (HD) diesel trucks. Measurements were made during summer 2006 at the Caldecott Tunnel in the San Francisco Bay area as part of a continuing campaign to track changes in vehicle emissions over time. When normalized to fuel consumption, NOx emission factors were found to be 3.0+-0.2 and 39+-3 g/kg for LD vehicles and MD/HD diesel trucks, respectively. Corresponding PM2.5 emission factors were 0.07+-0.02 and 1.4+-0.3 g/kg. Results from 2006 are compared to similar measurements made at the same site in 1997. NOx emission factors have decreased by 67+-3 and 25+-12% for LD vehicles and MD/HD diesel trucks, respectively. The ratio of HD to LD emission factor for NOx increased from 6+-1 to 12+-1 between 1997 and 2006, which indicates an increase in the relative importance of diesel trucks as a source of NOx emissions. This is compounded by the fact that in the U.S., diesel fuel sales have been increasing 3 times faster than gasoline sales. High time-resolution (1 Hz) measurements of NOx and CO2 were used to calculate NOx emission factors from individual HD truck exhaust plumes. MD/HD diesel trucks were also found to be a significant source of direct aldehyde emissions, which react in the atmosphere to form peroxyacyl nitrates.

  8. Valuing Non-CO2 GHG Emission Changes in Benefit-Cost Analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    The climate impacts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions impose social costs on society. To date, EPA has not had an approach to estimate the economic benefits of reducing emissions of non-CO2 GHGs (or the costs of increasing them) that is consistent with the methodology underlying...

  9. Valuing Non-CO2 GHG Emission Changes in Benefit-Cost Analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    The climate impacts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions impose social costs on society. To date, EPA has not had an approach to estimate the economic benefits of reducing emissions of non-CO2 GHGs (or the costs of increasing them) that is consistent with the methodology underlying...

  10. Monitoring so2 emission at the Soufriere Hills volcano: Implications for changes in eruptive conditions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Young, S.R.; Francis, P.W.; Barclay, J.; Casadevall, T.J.; Gardner, C.A.; Darroux, B.; Davies, M.A.; Delmelle, P.; Norton, G.E.; Maciejewski, A.J.H.; Oppenheimer, C.M.M.; Stix, J.; Watson, I.M.

    1998-01-01

    Correlation spectrometer measurements of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rates during the current eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, have contributed towards identifying different phases of volcanic activity. SO2 emission rate has increased from 550 td-1 (>6.4 kgs-1) after July 1996, with the uncertainty associated with any individual measurement ca. 30%. Significantly enhanced SO2 emission rates have been identified in association with early phreatic eruptions (800 td-1 (9.3 kgs-1)) and episodes of vigorous dome collapse and pyroclastic flow generation (900 to 1500 td-1 (10.4 to 17.4 kgs-1)). SO2 emission rate has proved a useful proxy measurement for magma production rate. Observed SO2 emission rates are significantly higher than those inferred from analyses of glass inclusions in phenocrysts, implying the existence of a S-rich magmatic vapour phase.

  11. Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds from litter are coupled with changes in the microbial community composition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hagel Svendsen, Sarah; Schostag, Morten; Voriskova, Jana; Kramshøj, Magnus; Priemé, Anders; Suhr Jacobsen, Carsten; Rinnan, Riikka

    2017-04-01

    Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) from natural ecosystems have significant impact on atmospheric chemistry and belowground chemical processes. Most attention has been given to emissions from plants. However, several studies have found that soil, and especially the decomposing leaf and needle litter, emits substantial amounts of BVOCs. The contribution of litter to ecosystem BVOC emissions may be increasingly significant in the Arctic, where the living plant biomass is low, and the amount of litter increasing due to the expansion of deciduous vegetation in response to climate change. It is known that the types and amounts of BVOCs emitted from the soil are highly dependent on the microbial community composition and the type of substrate. In this study we measured emissions of BVOCs from the leaf litter of common arctic plant species at different temperatures. The BVOC measurements were coupled with an analysis of the relative abundance of dominating bacterial species (determined as operational taxonomic units, OTUs). Leaf litter from evergreen Cassiope tetragona and two species of deciduous Salix were collected from two arctic locations; one in the High Arctic and one in the Low Arctic. The litter was incubated in dark at 5 ?C. Over an eight week period the temperature was increased 7 ?C every two weeks, giving temperature incubations at 5 ?C, 12 ?C, 19 ?C and 26 ?C. Emissions of BVOCs from the litter were sampled in adsorbent cartridges weekly and analyzed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The relative abundance of bacteria was determined at the end of the incubation at each temperature using DNA sequencing. Results showed that emissions of BVOCs belonging to different chemical functional groups responded differently to increasing temperatures and were highly dependent on the type of substrate. For instance, terpenoid emissions from the Cassiope litter increased with increasing temperature, whereas the emissions from the Salix

  12. Detecting long-term changes in point-source fossil CO2 emissions with tree ring archives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, Elizabeth D.; Turnbull, Jocelyn C.; Norris, Margaret W.

    2016-05-01

    We examine the utility of tree ring 14C archives for detecting long-term changes in fossil CO2 emissions from a point source. Trees assimilate carbon from the atmosphere during photosynthesis, in the process faithfully recording the average atmospheric 14C content in each new annual tree ring. Using 14C as a proxy for fossil CO2, we examine interannual variability over six years of fossil CO2 observations between 2004-2005 and 2011-2012 from two trees growing near the Kapuni Gas Treatment Plant in rural Taranaki, New Zealand. We quantify the amount of variability that can be attributed to transport and meteorology by simulating constant point-source fossil CO2 emissions over the observation period with the atmospheric transport model WindTrax. We compare model simulation results to observations and calculate the amount of change in emissions that we can detect with new observations over annual or multi-year time periods, given both the measurement uncertainty of 1ppm and the modelled variation in transport. In particular, we ask, what is the minimum amount of change in emissions that we can detect using this method, given a reference period of six years? We find that changes of 42 % or more could be detected in a new sample from one year at the same observation location or 22 % in the case of four years of new samples. This threshold is reduced and the method becomes more practical the more the size of the signal increases. For point sources 10 times larger than the Kapuni plant (a more typical size for power plants worldwide), it would be possible to detect sustained emissions changes on the order of 10 %, given suitable meteorology and observations.

  13. Decadal changes in global surface NOx emissions from multi-constituent satellite data assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miyazaki, K.; Eskes, H.; Sudo, K.; Boersma, K. F.; Bowman, K. W.; Kanaya, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Global surface emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) over a ten-year period (2005-2014) are estimated from an assimilation of multiple satellite datasets: tropospheric NO2 columns from OMI, GOME-2, and SCIAMACHY; O3 profiles from TES; CO profiles from MOPITT; and O3 and HNO3 profiles from MLS using an ensemble Kalman filter technique. Chemical concentrations of various species and emission sources of several precursors are simultaneously optimized. This is expected to improve the emission inversion because the emission estimates are influenced by biased in the modelled tropospheric chemistry, which can be partly corrected by also optimizing the concentrations. We present detailed distributions of the estimated emission distributions for all major regions, the diurnal and seasonal variability, and the development of these emissions over the ten-year period. The estimated regional total emissions show a strong positive trend over India (+29 %/decade), China (+26 %/decade), and the Middle East (+20 %/decade), and a negative trend over the United States (-38 %/decade), Southern Africa (-8.2 %/decade), and western Europe (-8.8 %/decade). The negative trends in the United States and western Europe are larger during 2005-2010 relative to 2011-2014, whereas the trend in China becomes negative after 2011. The data assimilation also suggests a large uncertainty in anthropogenic and fire-related emission factors and an important underestimation of soil NOx sources in the emission inventories. Despite the large trends observed for individual regions, the global total emission is almost constant between 2005 (47.9 Tg N yr-1) and 2014 (47.5 Tg N yr-1).

  14. Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O3 and PM2.5 over India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pommier, Matthieu; Fagerli, Hilde; Gauss, Michael; Sharma, Sumit; Sinha, Vinay; Ghude, Sachin; Langren, Oskar; Nyiri, Agnes; Wind, Peter

    2017-04-01

    This work aims to study the changes in surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in a world of changing emissions and climate by focusing on India. Stakeholders in India are already aware about air quality issues but anthropogenic emissions are projected to largely increase for some of the pollutants in the short-term (2030) and medium-term (2050) futures in India, especially if no more policy efforts are made. Only the policies in place before 2014/15 have been taken into account while projecting the future emissions. Current policies have led to decrease in emission intensities, however may not be enough for control of absolute emissions in future. In this study, the regional EMEP/MSC-W chemical transport model is used forced by downscaled meteorological fields at a 50 km resolution following the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. The reference scenario (for present-day) is evaluated with surface-based measurements. Given the relatively coarse resolution of the meteorological fields used for this comparison with urban observations, the agreement can be considered satisfactory as high correlations with O3 (r=0.9) and PM2.5 (r=0.5 and r=0.8 depending on the data set) are noticed. The bias in PM2.5 is limited (lower than 6%) but the model overestimates the O3 by 35%. Then, this work shows that in the 2050s, the variation in O3 linked to the climate change is mainly due to the change in O3 deposition velocity related to the change in the boundary layer height and, over a few areas, by changes in VOCs. At short term and medium-term, the PM2.5 is predicted to increase due to climate change, by up to 6.5% in the 2050s. This climatic variation is mainly explained by increases in dust, organic matter and secondary inorganic aerosols which are affected by the change in wind speed and precipitations. The large increase in anthropogenic emissions will modify the composition of PM2.5 over India as the secondary inorganic aerosols will be dominant. The

  15. Optothermal transient emission radiometry for studying the changes in epidermal hydration induced during ripening of tomato fruit mutants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, X.; Bicanic, D.; Imhof, R.; Xiao, P.; Harbinson, J.

    2004-10-01

    Optothermal transient emission radiometry (OTTER) was used to determine the mean surface hydration and the hydration profile of three mutants (beefsteak, slicing and salad) of harvested tomatoes (Lycopersicon esculentum) that were kept under ambient conditions for as long as 51 days. Maximal sensitivity of OTTER to water in the samples was achieved by using 2.94 μm and 13.1 μm as excitation and emission wavelengths, respectively. The surface hydration increases rapidly and reaches a constant level during the remaining period. The hydrolysis of pectic substances that occur in tomatoes while ripening might be a possible cause for the observed change in hydration.

  16. Quantifying the relative importance of greenhouse gas emissions from current and future savanna land use change across northern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bristow, Mila; Hutley, Lindsay B.; Beringer, Jason; Livesley, Stephen J.; Edwards, Andrew C.; Arndt, Stefan K.

    2016-11-01

    The clearing and burning of tropical savanna leads to globally significant emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs); however there is large uncertainty relating to the magnitude of this flux. Australia's tropical savannas occupy the northern quarter of the continent, a region of increasing interest for further exploitation of land and water resources. Land use decisions across this vast biome have the potential to influence the national greenhouse gas budget. To better quantify emissions from savanna deforestation and investigate the impact of deforestation on national GHG emissions, we undertook a paired site measurement campaign where emissions were quantified from two tropical savanna woodland sites; one that was deforested and prepared for agricultural land use and a second analogue site that remained uncleared for the duration of a 22-month campaign. At both sites, net ecosystem exchange of CO2 was measured using the eddy covariance method. Observations at the deforested site were continuous before, during and after the clearing event, providing high-resolution data that tracked CO2 emissions through nine phases of land use change. At the deforested site, post-clearing debris was allowed to cure for 6 months and was subsequently burnt, followed by extensive soil preparation for cropping. During the debris burning, fluxes of CO2 as measured by the eddy covariance tower were excluded. For this phase, emissions were estimated by quantifying on-site biomass prior to deforestation and applying savanna-specific emission factors to estimate a fire-derived GHG emission that included both CO2 and non-CO2 gases. The total fuel mass that was consumed during the debris burning was 40.9 Mg C ha-1 and included above- and below-ground woody biomass, course woody debris, twigs, leaf litter and C4 grass fuels. Emissions from the burning were added to the net CO2 fluxes as measured by the eddy covariance tower for other post-deforestation phases to provide a total GHG emission from

  17. The effect of localized surface plasmon resonance on the emission color change in organic light emitting diodes.

    PubMed

    Lee, Illhwan; Park, Jae Yong; Hong, Kihyon; Son, Jun Ho; Kim, Sungjun; Lee, Jong-Lam

    2016-03-28

    Three primary colors, cyan, yellow, and green, are obtained from Ag nano-dot embedded organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs) by localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR). By changing the thickness of the Ag film, the size and spacing of Ag nano-dots are controlled. The generated light from the emissive layer in the OLEDs interacts with the free electrons near the surface of the Ag nano-dots, which leads to LSPR absorption and scattering. The UV-visible absorption spectra of glass/ITO/Ag nano-dot samples show intense peaks from 430 nm to 520 nm with an increase of Ag nano-dot size. And also, the Rayleigh scattering spectra results show the plasmon resonance wavelength in the range of 470-550 nm. The effect of the LSPR of Ag nano-dots on the change of emission color in OLEDs is demonstrated using 2 dimensional finite-difference time-domain simulations. The intensity of the electro-magnetic field in the sample with 5 nm-thick Ag is low at the incident wavelength of 500 nm, but it increases with the incident wavelength. This provides evidence that the emission color change in OLEDs originates from LSPR at the Ag nano-dots. As a result, the emission peak wavelength of OLEDs shifted toward longer wavelengths, from cyan to yellow-green, with the increase of Ag nano-dot size.

  18. Greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural food production to supply Indian diets: Implications for climate change mitigation.

    PubMed

    Vetter, Sylvia H; Sapkota, Tek B; Hillier, Jon; Stirling, Clare M; Macdiarmid, Jennie I; Aleksandrowicz, Lukasz; Green, Rosemary; Joy, Edward J M; Dangour, Alan D; Smith, Pete

    2017-01-16

    Agriculture is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. The growing global population is putting pressure on agricultural production systems that aim to secure food production while minimising GHG emissions. In this study, the GHG emissions associated with the production of major food commodities in India are calculated using the Cool Farm Tool. GHG emissions, based on farm management for major crops (including cereals like wheat and rice, pulses, potatoes, fruits and vegetables) and livestock-based products (milk, eggs, chicken and mutton meat), are quantified and compared. Livestock and rice production were found to be the main sources of GHG emissions in Indian agriculture with a country average of 5.65 kg CO2eq kg(-1) rice, 45.54 kg CO2eq kg(-1) mutton meat and 2.4 kg CO2eq kg(-1) milk. Production of cereals (except rice), fruits and vegetables in India emits comparatively less GHGs with <1 kg CO2eq kg(-1) product. These findings suggest that a shift towards dietary patterns with greater consumption of animal source foods could greatly increase GHG emissions from Indian agriculture. A range of mitigation options are available that could reduce emissions from current levels and may be compatible with increased future food production and consumption demands in India.

  19. Reduction of the Livestock Ammonia Emission under the Changing Temperature during the Initial Manure Nitrogen Biomineralization

    PubMed Central

    Bagdonienė, Indrė; Baležentienė, Ligita

    2013-01-01

    Experimental data were applied for the modelling optimal cowshed temperature environment in laboratory test bench by a mass-flow method. The principal factor affecting exponent growth of ammonia emission was increasing air and manure surface temperature. With the manure temperature increasing from 4°C to 30°C, growth in the ammonia emission grew fourfold, that is, from 102 to 430 mg m−2h−1. Especial risk emerges when temperature exceeds 20°C: an increase in temperature of 1°C contributes to the intensity of ammonia emission by 17 mg m−2h−1. The temperatures of air and manure surface as well as those of its layers are important when analysing emission processes from manure. Indeed, it affects the processes occurring on the manure surface, namely, dehydration and crust formation. To reduce ammonia emission from cowshed, it is important to optimize the inner temperature control and to manage air circulation, especially at higher temperatures, preventing the warm ambient air from blowing direct to manure. Decrease in mean annual temperature of 1°C would reduce the annual ammonia emission by some 5.0%. The air temperature range varied between −15°C and 30°C in barns. The highest mean annual temperature (14.6°C) and ammonia emission (218 mg m−2h−1) were observed in the semideep cowshed. PMID:24453912

  20. Diurnal changes of PM10-emission from arable soils in NE-Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffmann, Carsten; Funk, Roger

    2015-06-01

    Repeated loss of fine soil particles by dust emission from arable fields caused by tillage operations, decline soil fertility and reduce air quality. The objective of this study was to quantify the diurnal dynamic of topsoil moisture and the connected PM10-emission of 15 different soils from arable fields around Berlin. As typical for the young moraine landscape in NE Germany, soils from glacial (sand and loam dominated), aeolian (silt loam), and fluvial (organic) sediments were selected. Soil samples were placed outside under hot summer and clear sky conditions for 24 h to reproduce the natural dynamic of soil surface moisture, including dew uptake during the night and evaporation during the day. Dynamic of PM10 emissions of all soils were then measured nine times per day in a stationary wind tunnel. Glacial and fluvial sands showed lowest fine dust emission potential (PM10pot) between 89 and 415 μg PM10 g-1 soil, while PM10pot of loess soils were higher (369-1215 μg PM10 g-1 soil). During the night, the moisture of all samples increased slightly by dew uptake, and fine dust emissions of soil samples were reduced up to 51% directly after sunrise. Highest average reductions in PM10 emissions were found for glacial and fluvial loams. Some hours after sunrise, all soil samples heated up and quickly dried again. Under minimal moisture conditions, highest fine dust emissions were measured between 10 a.m. and 3 p.m.

  1. Reduction of the livestock ammonia emission under the changing temperature during the initial manure nitrogen biomineralization.

    PubMed

    Bleizgys, Rolandas; Bagdonienė, Indrė; Baležentienė, Ligita

    2013-01-01

    Experimental data were applied for the modelling optimal cowshed temperature environment in laboratory test bench by a mass-flow method. The principal factor affecting exponent growth of ammonia emission was increasing air and manure surface temperature. With the manure temperature increasing from 4°C to 30°C, growth in the ammonia emission grew fourfold, that is, from 102 to 430 mg m(-2)h(-1). Especial risk emerges when temperature exceeds 20°C: an increase in temperature of 1°C contributes to the intensity of ammonia emission by 17 mg m(-2)h(-1). The temperatures of air and manure surface as well as those of its layers are important when analysing emission processes from manure. Indeed, it affects the processes occurring on the manure surface, namely, dehydration and crust formation. To reduce ammonia emission from cowshed, it is important to optimize the inner temperature control and to manage air circulation, especially at higher temperatures, preventing the warm ambient air from blowing direct to manure. Decrease in mean annual temperature of 1°C would reduce the annual ammonia emission by some 5.0%. The air temperature range varied between -15°C and 30°C in barns. The highest mean annual temperature (14.6°C) and ammonia emission (218 mg m(-2)h(-1)) were observed in the semideep cowshed.

  2. In situ Transmission Electron Microscopy Investigation of the Structural Changes in Carbon Nanotubes During Electron Emission at High Currents

    SciTech Connect

    Doytcheva, Maya; Kaiser, Monja; De Jonge, Niels

    2006-01-01

    The structural changes in carbon nanotubes under electron emission conditions were investigated in situ in a transmission electron microscope (TEM). The measurements were performed on individually mounted free-standing multi-walled carbon nanotubes (CNTs). It was found that the structure of the carbon nanotubes did not change gradually, as is the case with field emission electron sources made of sharp metal tips. Instead, changes occurred only above a current level of a few microamperes, which was different for each nanotube. Above the threshold current, carbon nanotubes underwent either structural damage, such as shortening and splitting of the apex of the nanotube, or closing of their open cap. The results are discussed on the basis of several models for degradation mechanisms.

  3. DYNAMIC EVALUATION OF REGIONAL AIR QUALITY MODELS: ASSESSING CHANGES TO O 3 STEMMING FROM CHANGES IN EMISSIONS AND METEOROLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Regional-scale air quality models are used to estimate the response of air pollutants to potential emission control strategies as part of the decision-making process. Traditionally, the model predicted pollutant concentrations are evaluated for the “base case” to assess a model’s...

  4. DYNAMIC EVALUATION OF REGIONAL AIR QUALITY MODELS: ASSESSING CHANGES TO O 3 STEMMING FROM CHANGES IN EMISSIONS AND METEOROLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Regional-scale air quality models are used to estimate the response of air pollutants to potential emission control strategies as part of the decision-making process. Traditionally, the model predicted pollutant concentrations are evaluated for the “base case” to assess a model’s...

  5. Peatland CO2 emissions: Using 13C to quantify responses to land use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snell, Helen; Robinson, David; Midwood, Andrew J.

    2013-04-01

    Soil is the largest terrestrial carbon reservoir and annually soils emit about 98 billion tonnes of CO2which is derived from plant root and rhizosphere respiration (autotrophically fuelled by photosynthesis) and microbial degradation of soil organic carbon (heterotrophic respiration). These two processes are intrinsically linked by complex physical and biochemical interactions. In order to meet its GHG reductions targets the Scottish Government plans to increase woodland cover from 17 to 25% by the second half of this century which will inevitably lead to significant tree planting on peatland soils. Tree roots and associated mycorrhiza will alter physical and biological conditions in the soil which may affect the heterotrophic contribution to CO2 emissions and consequently the long term landscape-scale carbon balance since the difference between net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration defines the terrestrial CO2 sink. Significant uncertainties surround the response of peatlands to tree planting and predicted climate changes. At a field site in eastern Scotland we used natural abundance stable isotopes of carbon to partition soil CO2 efflux into its heterotrophic and autotrophic components to determine whether young Scots pine plantations affect heterotrophic respiration rates in peatland soil. Rate and isotopic composition of soil CO2 efflux was measured in plantation areas and in unforested heather moorland; soil and roots were then excavated and separately incubated to establish the isotopic end members of a simple linear mixing model. Isotopic composition of soil efflux varies temporally and spatially across the site; young Scots pine trees do not increase the heterotrophic flux from soil and therefore do not lead to a net loss of soil carbon from these landscapes.

  6. Developing spatial inequalities in carbon appropriation: a sociological analysis of changing local emissions across the United States.

    PubMed

    Elliott, James R; Clement, Matthew Thomas

    2015-05-01

    This study examines an overlooked dynamic in sociological research on greenhouse gas emissions: how local areas appropriate the global carbon cycle for use and exchange purposes as they develop. Drawing on theories of place and space, we hypothesize that development differentially drives and spatially decouples use- and exchange-oriented emissions at the local level. To test our hypotheses, we integrate longitudinal, county-level data on residential and industrial emissions from the Vulcan Project with demographic, economic and environmental data from the U.S. Census Bureau and National Land Change Database. Results from spatial regression models with two-way fixed-effects indicate that alongside innovations and efficiencies capable of reducing environmentally harmful effects of development comes a spatial disarticulation between carbon-intensive production and consumption within as well as across societies. Implications for existing theory, methods and policy are discussed.

  7. The impacts of rapid land use changes on regional climate, air quality and atmospheric sensitivities to emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yim, S. H. L.; Wong, M.; Wang, Y.; Chan, A.

    2016-12-01

    The Pearl River Delta region has undergone a rapid urbanization in recent several decades. Literature has found significant impacts on climate and air quality. Previous studies however mainly investigated the impacts on climate and ozone concentration in a relatively short time period. None of them investigated the monthly variation in impacts on ozone (O3) and fine particulate matters (PM2.5), and the atmospheric sensitivity to emissions, which are particularly important for atmospheric scientists and policy makers. In this study, we used the state-of-the-art atmospheric regional models with the technique of high-order decoupled direct method to quantify the impacts of urbanization on not only the regional climate and O3 concentration but also the O3 sensitivities to emissions of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compound. Our preliminary results show that the urbanization shifts the energy budget from latent heat to sensible heat and ground heat storage. These changes cause an increase in ground level temperature and planetary boundary layer with a maximum annual change of 1.7ºC and 330m, respectively, and a reduction of relative humidity and wind speed up to 9.6% and 0.5m/s, respectively. Such changes are favorable to air pollution. Compared to the two land-use scenarios, we found that O3 increases by 14.2%, while PM2.5 decreases by 16.9% in urban areas. Due to urbanization, the O3 sensitivities to nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compound (VOC) change by 2.4% and 47.5%, respectively. This indicates that the atmospheric response in the region tends to be more sensitive to emission changes after urbanization. Our findings pinpoint that urbanization can significantly affect not only the regional climate and air quality but also the atmospheric responses to emission changes, highlighting the significant interactions between land-use policies, and climate and air quality policies.

  8. Evaluating Global Land-use Change Scenario: Carbon Emission in RCP Scenarios and its Effects on Climate Response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

    2011-12-01

    In CMIP5 experiments, new emissions scenarios for GCMs and Earth System Models (ESMs) have been constructed as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by a community effort of Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) groups. In RCP scenarios, regional land-use scenarios have been depicted based on the socio-economic assumption of IAMs, and also downscaled spatially explicit land-use maps from the regional scenarios are prepared. In the land-use harmonization project, integrated gridded land-use transition data for the past and future time period has been developed from the reconstruction based on HYDE 3 agricultural data and FAO wood harvest data, and the future land-use scenarios from IAMs. These gridded land-use dataset are used as a forcing of some ESMs participating to the CMIP5 experiments, to assess the biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects of land-use and land cover change in the climate change simulation. In this study, global net CO2 emissions from land-use change for RCP scenarios are evaluated with an offline terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool). Also the emissions are evaluated with coupled ESM, MIROC-ESM following the LUCID-CMIP5 protocol to see the effect of land-use and land cover change on climate response. Using the model output, consistency of the land-use change CO2 emission scenarios provided by RCPs are evaluated in terms of effect of CO2 fertilization, climate change, and land-use transition itself including the effect of biomass crops production with CCS. We find that a land-use scenario with decreased agricultural land-use intensity such as RCP 6.0 shows possibility of further absorption of CO2 through the climate-carbon feedback, and cooling effect through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects.

  9. Modeling the response of forest isoprene emissions to future increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration and changes in climate (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monson, R. K.; Heald, C. L.; Guenther, A. B.; Wilkinson, M.

    2009-12-01

    Isoprene emissions from plants to the atmosphere are sensitive to changes in temperature, light and atmospheric CO2 concentration in both the short- (seconds-to-minutes) and long-term (hours-to-months). We now understand that the different time constants for these responses are due to controls by different sets of biochemical and physiological processes n leaves. Progress has been made in the past few years toward converting this process-level understanding into quantitative models. In this talk, we consider this progress with special emphasis on the short- and long-term responses to atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature. A new biochemically-based model is presented for describing the CO2 responses, and the model is deployed in a global context to predict interactions between the influences of temperature and CO2 on the global isoprene emission rate. The model is based on the theory of enzyme-substrate kinetics, particularly with regard to those reactions that produce puruvate or glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate, the two chloroplastic substrates for isoprene biosynthesis. In the global model, when we accounted for CO2 inhibition of isoprene emission in the long-term response, we observed little impact on present-day global isoprene emission (increase from 508 to 523 Tg C yr-1). However, the large increases in future isoprene emissions predicted from past models which are due to a projected warmer climate, were entirely offset by including the CO2 effects. The isoprene emission response to CO2 was dominated by the long-term growth environment effect, with modulations of 10% or less from the short-term effect. We use this analysis as a framework for grounding future global models of isoprene emission in biochemical and physiological observations.

  10. Emissions of monoterpenes linalool and ocimene respond differently to environmental changes due to differences in physico-chemical characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noe, Steffen M.; Ciccioli, Paolo; Brancaleoni, Enzo; Loreto, Francesco; Niinemets, Ülo

    We investigated the 13C-labeling kinetics of the emission of two major monoterpenes emitted by needles of Mediterranean conifer Pinus pinea L., monoterpene alcohol linalool and non-oxygenated monoterpene trans- β-ocimene. These data were further used to develop and parameterize a dynamics monoterpene emission model, predicting the emissions of monoterpenes with contrasting physico-chemical properties to environmental changes. All monoterpenes emitted were labeled by 13C in short pulse-labeling experiments. 13C-labeling experiments further indicated for these two monoterpenes comprising 77% of total emissions that a major part of the emissions of these two monoterpenes relied on recently synthesized carbon not on specific storage compartments within the resin ducts. However, labeling kinetics suggested existence of transient storage pools, located within the needle aqueous and lipid phases. For linalool, we found half-lives of 13 min for the aqueous phase storage and 3 h for the lipid phase while trans- β-ocimene exhibit an aqueous phase half-life of 2 and 15 min for the lipid phase, overall indicating that the transient storage due to limited monoterpene volatility can significantly alter the emission dynamics. The key physico-chemical characteristics determining the time constants of the transient storage pools were the Henry's law constant (liquid/gas phase partition coefficient) and the octanol/water (lipid/liquid) phase partition coefficient. As monoterpene Henry's law constants vary over four orders of magnitude and octanol/water partition coefficients over three orders of magnitude, the capacity for non-specific storage, and damping of the effects of rapidly changing environmental conditions is expected to strongly vary among different monoterpenes. Overall, our study suggests that non-specific storage due to limited volatility is a common phenomenon of common of plant-emitted compounds.

  11. Impact of forecasted changes in Polish economy (2015 and 2020) on nutrient emission into the river basins.

    PubMed

    Pastuszak, Marianna; Kowalkowski, Tomasz; Kopiński, Jerzy; Stalenga, Jarosław; Panasiuk, Damian

    2014-09-15

    Poland, with its large drainage area, with 50% contribution of agricultural land and 45% contribution of population to overall agricultural land area and population number in the Baltic catchment, is the largest exporter of riverine nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to the sea. The economic transition has resulted in substantial, statistically significant decline in N, P export from Polish territory to the Baltic Sea. Following the obligations arising from the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) declarations, in the coming years, Poland is expected to reduce riverine N loads by ca. 25% and P loads by ca. 60% as referred to the average flow normalized loads recorded in 1997-2003. The aim of this paper is to estimate annual source apportioned N and P emissions into these river basins in 2015 and 2020 with application of modeling studies (MONERIS). Twelve scenarios, encompassing changes in anthropogenic (diffuse, point source) and natural pressure (precipitation, water outflow due to climate change), have been applied. Modeling outcome for the period 2003-2008 served as our reference material. In applied scenarios, N emission into the Oder basin in 2015 and 2020 shows an increase from 4.2% up to 9.1% as compared with the reference period. N emission into the Vistula basin is more variable and shows an increase by max. 17.8% or a decrease by max. 4.7%, depending on the scenario. The difference between N emission into the Oder and Vistula basins is related to the catchment peculiarities and handling of point sources emission. P emission into both basins shows identical scenario patters and a maximum decrease reaches 17.8% in the Oder and 16.7% in the Vistula basin. Despite a declining tendency in P loads in both rivers in all the scenarios, HELCOM targeted P load reduction is not feasible. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Soil Incubation Study to Assess the Impacts of Manure Application and Climate Change on Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agricultural Soil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schiavone, K.; Barbieri, L.; Adair, C.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural fields in Vermont's Lake Champlain Basin have problems with the loss of nutrients due to runoff which creates eutrophic conditions in the lakes, ponds and rivers. In efforts to retain nitrogen and other nutrients in the soil farmers have started to inject manure rather than spraying it. Our understanding of the effects this might have on the volatilization of nitrogen into nitrous oxide is limited. Already, agriculture produces 69% of the total nitrous oxide emissions in the US. Understanding that climate change will affect the future of agriculture in Vermont, we set up a soil core incubation test to monitor the emissions of CO₂ and N₂O using a Photoacoustic Gas Sensor (PAS). Four 10 cm soil cores were taken from nine different fertilizer management plots in a No Till corn field; Three Injected plots, three Broadcast plots, and three Plow plots. Frozen soil cores were extracted in early April, and remained frozen before beginning the incubation experiment to most closely emulate three potential spring environmental conditions. The headspace was monitored over one week to get emission rates. This study shows that environmental and fertilizer treatments together do not have a direct correlation to the amount of CO₂ and N₂O emissions from agricultural soil. However, production of CO₂ was 26% more in warmer environmental conditions than in variable(freeze/thaw) environmental conditions. The injected fertilizer produced the most emissions, both CO₂ and N₂O. The total N₂O emissions from Injected soil cores were 2.2x more than from traditional broadcast manure cores. We believe this is likely due to the addition of rich organic matter under anaerobic soil conditions. Although, injected fertilizer is a better application method for reducing nutrient runoff, the global warming potential of N₂O is 298 times that of CO₂. With climate change imminent, assessing the harmful effects and benefits of injected fertilizer is a crucial next step in

  13. Modelling climate change impact on N2O emissions from agricultural soils based on long-term observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Priesack, Eckart; Heinlein, Florian; Klein, Christian; Thieme, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    Intensive agricultural land use is considered to be the major source of the anthropogenic contribution to the increase in atmospheric N2O concentration during the last decades. A reduction of anthropogenic N2O emissions therefore requires a change in agricultural management practices. Mathematical models help to understand the interaction between the determining processes of N2O production and the dynamics of state variables affecting N2O emissions. In particular the impact of climate change on N2O emissions can be better analyzed. The aim of this study was to test the modeling approaches for their ability to describe and quantify the long-term development of N2O emissions from agricultural fields observed at the Research farm Scheyern situated 40 km north of Munich, Bavaria. Data for model evaluation were obtained during 25 years (1992-2017) mainly by the closed chamber method. We applied two different modeling approaches, where one model assumes a fixed N2O/N2 ratio for N2O production and neglects the transport of N2O in the soil profile; whereas the other model explicitly considers N2O transport and assumes a dynamic reduction of N2O to N2. Generally, both modeling approaches were able to describe the observed long-term and seasonal dynamics of N2O emissions and events of high N2O emissions due to increased denitrification activity after heavy precipitation and during thawing after soil freezing. It is concluded that the decrease of frost thaw-events due to higher temperatures during the cold season is the main reason for the decrease of N2O from the agricultural fields at the research farm Scheyern.

  14. Multi-annual changes of NOx emissions in megacity regions: nonlinear trend analysis of satellite measurement based estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konovalov, I. B.; Beekmann, M.; Richter, A.; Burrows, J. P.; Hilboll, A.

    2010-04-01

    Hazardous impact of air pollutant emissions from megacities on atmospheric composition on regional and global scales is currently an important issue in atmospheric research. However, the quantification of emissions and related effects is frequently a difficult task, especially in the case of developing countries, due to the lack of reliable data and information. This study examines possibilities to retrieve multi-annual NOx emissions changes in megacity regions from satellite measurements of nitrogen dioxide and to quantify them in terms of linear and nonlinear trends. By combining the retrievals of the GOME and SCIAMACHY satellite instrument data with simulations performed by the CHIMERE chemistry transport model, we obtain the time series of NOx emission estimates for the 12 largest urban agglomerations in Europe and the Middle East in the period from 1996 to 2008. We employ then a novel method allowing estimation of a nonlinear trend in a noisy time series of an observed variable. The method is based on the probabilistic approach and the use of artificial neural networks; it does not involve any quantitative a priori assumptions. As a result, statistically significant nonlinearities in the estimated NOx emission trends are detected in 5 megacities (Bagdad, Madrid, Milan, Moscow and Paris). Statistically significant upward linear trends are detected in Istanbul and Tehran, while downward linear trends are revealed in Berlin, London and the Ruhr agglomeration. The presence of nonlinearities in NOx emission changes in Milan, Paris and Madrid is confirmed by comparison of simulated NOx concentrations with independent air quality monitoring data. A good quantitative agreement between the linear trends in the simulated and measured near surface NOx concentrations is found in London.

  15. Multi-annual changes of NOx emissions in megacity regions: nonlinear trend analysis of satellite measurement based estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konovalov, I. B.; Beekmann, M.; Richter, A.; Burrows, J. P.; Hilboll, A.

    2010-09-01

    Hazardous impact of air pollutant emissions from megacities on atmospheric composition on regional and global scales is currently an important issue in atmospheric research. However, the quantification of emissions and related effects is frequently a difficult task, especially in the case of developing countries, due to the lack of reliable data and information. This study examines possibilities to retrieve multi-annual NOx emissions changes in megacity regions from satellite measurements of nitrogen dioxide and to quantify them in terms of linear and nonlinear trends. By combining the retrievals of the GOME and SCIAMACHY satellite instrument data with simulations performed by the CHIMERE chemistry transport model, we obtain the time series of NOx emission estimates for the 12 largest urban agglomerations in Europe and the Middle East in the period from 1996 to 2008. We employ then a novel method allowing estimation of a nonlinear trend in a noisy time series of an observed variable. The method is based on the probabilistic approach and the use of artificial neural networks; it does not involve any quantitative a priori assumptions. As a result, statistically significant nonlinearities in the estimated NOx emission trends are detected in 5 megacities (Bagdad, Madrid, Milan, Moscow and Paris). Statistically significant upward linear trends are detected in Istanbul and Tehran, while downward linear trends are revealed in Berlin, London and the Ruhr agglomeration. The presence of nonlinearities in NOx emission changes in Milan, Paris and Madrid is confirmed by comparison of simulated NOx concentrations with independent air quality monitoring data. A good quantitative agreement between the linear trends in the simulated and measured near surface NOx concentrations is found in London.

  16. The Impact of Future Emissions Changes on Air Pollution Concentrations and Related Human Health Effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mikolajczyk, U.; Suppan, P.; Williams, M.

    2015-12-01

    Quantification of potential health benefits of reductions in air pollution on the local scale is becoming increasingly important. The aim of this study is to conduct health impact assessment (HIA) by utilizing regionally and spatially specific data in order to assess the influence of future emission scenarios on human health. In the first stage of this investigation, a modeling study was carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry to estimate ambient concentrations of air pollutants for the baseline year 2009, and for the future emission scenarios in southern Germany. Anthropogenic emissions for the baseline year 2009 are derived from the emission inventory provided by the Netherlands Organization of Applied Scientific Research (TNO) (Denier van der Gon et al., 2010). For Germany, the TNO emissions were replaced by gridded emission data with a high spatial resolution of 1/64 x 1/64 degrees. Future air quality simulations are carried out under different emission scenarios, which reflect possible energy and climate measures in year 2030. The model set-up included a nesting approach, where three domains with horizontal resolution of 18 km, 6 km and 2 km were defined. The simulation results for the baseline year 2009 are used to quantify present-day health burdens. Concentration-response functions (CRFs) for PM2.5 and NO2 from the WHO Health risks of air Pollution in Europe (HRAPIE) project were applied to population-weighted mean concentrations to estimate relative risks and hence to determine numbers of attributable deaths and associated life-years lost. In the next step, future health impacts of projected concentrations were calculated taking into account different emissions scenarios. The health benefits that we assume with air pollution reductions can be used to provide options for future policy decisions to protect public health.

  17. Changes in the emission properties of metallic targets upon exposure to repetitively pulsed laser radiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konov, V. I.; Pimenov, S. M.; Prokhorov, A. M.; Chapliev, N. I.

    1988-02-01

    A scanning electron microscope and a repetitively pulsed CO2 laser are used to reveal the relationships which govern the correlation of the transforming metal surface microrelief with the emission of charged particles and the surface luminescence upon exposure to multipulse laser focusing. It is shown that the effect of sorption and laser-stimulated desorption on the emission signals can manifest itself in different ways depending on the current oscillation mode in the target-vacuum chamber circuit.

  18. Greenhouse gas emission and mitigation potential of changes in water management for two rice sites in Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Begum, Khadiza; Kuhnert, Matthias; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Smith, Pete; Ogle, Stephen; Parton, William; Kader, Abdul; Sleutel, Steven

    2017-04-01

    Agriculture is one of the main contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Bangladesh and rice production is one of the largest sources of GHG emissions. This study considers measurements from two test sites, situated in Mymensingh (Bangladesh), to calibrate and validate the biogeochemical model DailyDayCent and estimate the mitigation potential of alternative management practices at the sites. There are two different N application treatments on the two test sites, which are on the first site a control with no N application and a mineral fertilizer application (120 kg N ha-1) and on the second site only a mineral fertilizer application (110 kg N ha-1). For mitigation, the water management is modified in a modelling approach to estimate the mitigation potential for reducing GHG emissions. The model shows partial agreement with the observations. The modifications to the water management, by changing from permanent wetting to alternate wetting, shows a decrease in GHG emissions of up to 46 % and 37 % for the two test sites, respectively. These tests enable an optimization of the management options to reduce the GHG emissions while maintaining yields.

  19. Short term changes in methanol emission and pectin methylesterase activity are not directly affected by light in Lycopersicon esculentum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oikawa, P. Y.; Li, L.; Timko, M. P.; Mak, J. E.; Lerdau, M. T.

    2011-01-01

    Plants are an important source of atmospheric methanol (MeOH), the second most abundant organic gas after methane. Factors regulating phytogenic MeOH production are not well constrained in current MeOH emission models. Previous studies have indicated that light may have a direct influence on MeOH production. As light is known to regulate cell wall expansion, it was predicted that light would stimulate MeOH production through the pectin methylesterase (PME) pathway. MeOH emissions normalized for stomatal conductance (gs) did not, however, increase with light over short time scales (20-30 min). After experimentally controlling for gs and temperature, no light activation of PME activity or MeOH emission was observed. The results clearly demonstrate that light does not directly influence short-term changes in MeOH production and emission. Our data suggest that substrate limitation may be important in regulating MeOH production over short time scales. Future investigation of the long-term impacts of light on MeOH production may increase understanding of MeOH emission dynamics at the seasonal time scale.

  20. Short term changes in methanol emission and pectin methylesterase activity are not directly affected by light in Lycopersicon esculentum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oikawa, P. Y.; Li, L.; Timko, M. P.; Mak, J. E.; Lerdau, M. T.

    2011-04-01

    Plants are an important source of atmospheric methanol (MeOH), the second most abundant organic gas after methane. Factors regulating phytogenic MeOH production are not well constrained in current MeOH emission models. Previous studies have indicated that light may have a direct influence on MeOH production. As light is known to regulate cell wall expansion, it was predicted that light would stimulate MeOH production through the pectin methylesterase (PME) pathway. MeOH emissions normalized for stomatal conductance (gs) did not, however, increase with light over short time scales (20-30 min). After experimentally controlling for gs and temperature, no light activation of PME activity or MeOH emission was observed. The results clearly demonstrate that light does not directly influence short-term changes in MeOH production and emission. Our data suggest that substrate limitation may be important in regulating MeOH production over short time scales. Future investigation of the long-term impacts of light on MeOH production may increase understanding of MeOH emission dynamics at the seasonal time scale.

  1. Tracing changes of N2O emission pathways in a permanent grassland under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorenflo, Andre; Moser, Gerald; Brenzinger, Kristof; Elias, Dafydd; McNamara, Neill; Clough, Tim; Maček, Irena; Vodnik, Dominik; Braker, Gesche; Schimmelpfennig, Sonja; Gerstner, Judith; Müller, Christoph

    2015-04-01

    The increase of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere is of concern due to its effect on global temperatures. Nitrous oxide (N2O) with a Global Warming Potential of 298 over a 100 year period is of particular concern because strong feedback effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on N2O emissions have been observed. However, so far the changes in processes which are responsible for such a feedback effect are only poorly understood. Our study was carried out in situ in a long-term Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FACE) study on permanent grassland at atmospheric CO2 concentrations 20% above ambient which expected at the middle of this century. We performed an in situ 15N tracing with differentially labelled NH4NO3 to trace the main N2O emission pathways. Over a period of more than one year we monitored at least weakly the N2O emissions with the closed chamber technique and analyzed the 15N signature of the N2O. The observed gaseous emissions under ambient and elevated atmospheric CO2 were associated with the observed gross N transformations and the microbial activities to identify the main emission pathways under ambient and elevated CO2.

  2. A novel method for quantifying the greenhouse gas emissions of biofuels based on historical land use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, X.; Rhodes, J.; Clarens, A. F.

    2012-12-01

    Land use change (LUC) emissions have been at the center of an ongoing debate about how the carbon footprint of biofuels compare to petroleum-based fuels over their entire life cycle. The debate about LUC has important implications in the US, the EU, and other countries that are working to deploy biofuel policies, informed by life cycle assessment, that promote carbon emission reductions, among other things. LUC calculations often distinguish between direct land use change (DLUC), those that occur onsite, and indirect land use change (ILUC), those that result from market mechanisms leading to emissions that are either spatially or temporally removed from the agricultural activity. These designations are intended to capture the fundamental connection between agricultural production of biofuel feedstock and its physical effects on the land, but both DLUC and ILUC can be difficult to measure and apply broadly. ILUC estimates are especially challenging to quantify because they rely on global economic models to assess how much land would be brought into production in other countries as a consequence of biofuel feedstock cultivation. As a result, ILUC estimates inherently uncertain, are sensitive to complex assumptions, have limited transparency, and have precipitated sufficient controversy to delay development of coherent biofuel policies. To address these shortcomings of conventional LUC methodologies, we have developed a method for estimating land use change emissions that is based on historical emissions from a parcel of land. The method, which we call historical land use change (HLUC) can be readily quantified for any parcel of land in the world using open source datasets of historical emissions. HLUC is easy to use and is directly tied to the physical processes on land used for biofuel production. The emissions from the HLUC calculations are allocated between historical agricultural activity and proposed biofuel feedstock cultivation. This is compatible with

  3. Modeling dust emission variations in Eastern Europe related to North-Atlantic abrupt climate changes of the last glacial period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sima, A.; Kageyama, M.; Rousseau, D.; Ramstein, G.; Schulz, M.; Balkanski, Y.; Antoine, P.; Dulac, F.; Hatte, C.; Lagroix, F.; Gerasimenko, N.

    2010-12-01

    The European loess sequences of the last glacial period (~ 100-15 kyr BP) show periods of strong dust accumulation alternating with episodes of reduced (or no) sedimentation, allowing soil development. For the main loess sedimentation period (~ 40 - 15 kyr BP), data indicate a correlation between these variations and the North Atlantic rapid climate changes: the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Heinrich (H) events. We use numerical modeling to investigate the relationship between the North-Atlantic abrupt changes and the sedimentation variations in Europe. A first study (Sima et al, QSR, 2009) focused on western Europe, and addressed the impact on dust emission of North-Atlantic SST changes as those associated to DO and H events. It proposed that vegetation played a key role in modulating dust emission variations in western European source areas. Here we focus on eastern Europe, especially on the areas north and north-east of the Carpathian Mountains, where loess deposits have recorded DO and H events (Rousseau et al. Clim. Past D, 2010). As in the previous study, we use the LMDZ AGCM and the SECHIBA land-surface models to simulate a reference glacial state (“stadial”), a cold (“HE”) and a warm (“DO interstadial”) perturbation, all corresponding to Marine Isotope Stage 3 conditions. We follow the same protocol as for the study on the west-European sector to analyze the impact of the climate factors and surface conditions on dust emission. The simulated most active emission areas are compatible with the loess deposit distribution, and the key role of vegetation in stadial-interstadial dust emission variations is confirmed.

  4. Satellite Microwave Detection of Boreal-Arctic Wetland Inundation Changes and Their Impact on Regional Methane Emission Estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watts, J. D.; Kimball, J. S.; Bartsch, A.

    2014-12-01

    Surface water inundation strongly regulates land-atmosphere energy and carbon exchange in northern environments. However, the dynamic nature of inundation in boreal-Arctic landscapes, and the impact of changing surface water extent on wetland methane (CH4) emissions, is not well understood. We examine recent (2003-2011) changes and spatiotemporal variability in surface inundation across high latitude wetland regions (> 45 deg. N) using passive microwave remote sensing retrievals of fractional open water extent (Fw) derived from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) 18.7 and 23.8 GHz brightness temperatures. The daily Fw retrievals are sensitive to sub-grid scale (~25-km resolution) open water area (e.g. lakes and emergent vegetation), and are insensitive to solar illumination and atmosphere contamination effects. We also explore the potential implications of surface Fw variability on high latitude methane emissions using a remote sensing data driven model sensitivity analysis. Our results show widespread surface wetting across the Arctic continuous permafrost zone, which increased model simulated high latitude methane emissions by 0.56 Tg CH4 yr-1 relative to the 2003-2011 mean. This increase was largely offset (-0.38 Tg CH4 yr-1) by drying in boreal Alaska, Canada and western Eurasia. We also find that accounting for dynamic Fw variability in model simulations may significantly lower regional methane emission budgets. These findings accentuate the need for frequent satellite remote sensing driven Fw monitoring across the high latitude systems, to better assess regional sensitivities to climate change. An extended Fw record using AMSR2 data and enhanced (3-9 km) resolution L-band active/passive microwave retrievals from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive mission, are expected to improve understanding of regional surface water trends and variability, and reduce uncertainty in boreal-Arctic wetland emission estimates.

  5. The impact of considering land intensification and updated data on biofuels land use change and emissions estimates.

    PubMed

    Taheripour, Farzad; Zhao, Xin; Tyner, Wallace E

    2017-01-01

    The GTAP model has been used to estimate biofuel policy induced land use changes and consequent GHG emissions for more than a decade. This paper reviews the history of the model and database modifications and improvements that have occurred over that period. In particular, the paper covers in greater detail the move from the 2004 to the 2011 database, and the inclusion of cropland intensification in the modeling structure. The results show that all the changes in the global economy and agricultural sectors cause biofuels induced land use changes and associated emissions can be quite different using the 2011 database versus 2004. The results also demonstrate the importance of including land intensification in the analysis. The previous versions of GTAP and other similar models assumed that changes in harvested area equal changes in cropland area. However, FAO data demonstrate that it is not correct for several important world regions. The model now includes land intensification, and the resulting land use changes and emission values are lower as would be expected. Dedicated energy crops are not similar to the first generation feedstocks in the sense that they do not generate the level of market-mediated responses which we have seen in the first-generation feedstocks. The major market-mediated responses are reduced consumption, crop switching, changes in trade, changes in intensification, and forest or pasture conversion. These largely do not apply to dedicated energy corps. The land use emissions for cellulosic feedstocks depend on what we assume in the emissions factor model regarding soil carbon gained or lost in converting land to these feedstocks. We examined this important point for producing bio-gasoline from miscanthus. Much of the literature suggests miscanthus actually sequesters carbon, if grown on the existing active cropland or degraded land. We provide some illustrative estimates for possible assumptions. Finally, it is important to note the

  6. Global warming feedbacks on terrestrial carbon uptake under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Emission Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joos, Fortunat; Prentice, I. Colin; Sitch, Stephen; Meyer, Robert; Hooss, Georg; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Gerber, Stefan; Hasselmann, Klaus

    2001-12-01

    A coupled physical-biogeochemical climate model that includes a dynamic global vegetation model and a representation of a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model is driven by the nonintervention emission scenarios recently developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Atmospheric CO2, carbon sinks, radiative forcing by greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols, changes in the fields of surface-air temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, ocean thermal expansion, and vegetation structure are projected. Up to 2100, atmospheric CO2 increases to 540 ppm for the lowest and to 960 ppm for the highest emission scenario analyzed. Sensitivity analyses suggest an uncertainty in these projections of -10 to +30% for a given emission scenario. Radiative forcing is estimated to increase between 3 and 8 W m-2 between now and 2100. Simulated warmer conditions in North America and Eurasia affect ecosystem structure: boreal trees expand poleward in high latitudes and are partly replaced by temperate trees and grasses at lower latitudes. The consequences for terrestrial carbon storage depend on the assumed sensitivity of climate to radiative forcing, the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature, and the rate of increase in radiative forcing by both CO2 and other GHGs. In the most extreme cases, the terrestrial biosphere becomes a source of carbon during the second half of the century. High GHG emissions and high contributions of non-CO2 agents to radiative forcing favor a transient terrestrial carbon source by enhancing warming and the associated release of soil carbon.

  7. Simulated effects of changes in direct and diffuse radiation on canopy scale isoprene emissions from vegetation following volcanic eruptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilton, D. J.; Hewitt, C. N.; Beerling, D. J.

    2011-11-01

    Volcanic eruptions can alter the quality of incoming solar irradiance reaching the Earth's surface thereby influencing the interactions between vegetation and the Earth system. Isoprene (C5H8) is a biogenic volatile organic compound emitted from leaves at a rate that is strongly dependent on the received flux of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). We used a theoretical approach to investigate the potential for volcanic eruptions to change the isoprene flux from terrestrial forests using canopy-scale isoprene emission simulations that vary either the relative or absolute amount of diffuse (Idiff) and direct (Idir) PAR. According to our simulations for a northern hardwood deciduous forest, if the total amount of PAR during summer remains constant while the proportion of Idiff increases, canopy-scale isoprene emissions increase. This effect increases as leaf area index (LAI) increases. Simulating a decrease in the total amount of PAR, and a corresponding increase in Idiff fraction, as measured during the 1992 Pinatubo eruption, changes daily total canopy-scale isoprene emissions from terrestrial vegetation in summertime by +2.8% and -1.4% for LAI of 6 and 2, respectively. These effects have not previously been realized or quantified. Better capturing the effects of volcanic eruptions (and other major perturbations to the atmospheric aerosol content) on isoprene emissions from the terrestrial biosphere, and hence on the chemistry of the atmosphere, therefore may require inclusion of the effects of aerosols they produce on climate and the quality of PAR.

  8. Impact of emissions and +2 °C climate change upon future ozone and nitrogen dioxide over Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Laura; Lacressonnière, Gwendoline; Gauss, Michael; Engardt, Magnuz; Andersson, Camilla; Josse, Béatrice; Marécal, Virginie; Nyiri, Agnes; Sobolowski, Stefan; Siour, Guillaume; Szopa, Sophie; Vautard, Robert

    2016-10-01

    The evolution of ozone and nitrogen dioxide over Europe between the present day and a future period with a +2 °C global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate was studied using four offline chemistry transport models, each driven by a different climate model. Given the recent outcome of the COP21 negotiations, understanding the implications of climate change around the +2 °C threshold has never been more pressing or relevant. One of the objectives of this study was to show how changes in anthropogenic emissions and +2 °C climate change are expected to affect future air quality, which may have important implications upon human health. It was found that a +2 °C climate change alone was responsible for a modest, and not statistically significant, increase in surface O3 concentrations (of between -0.1-0.8 ppb in the summer averaged over the European domain) compared to the present climate. Two different emission scenarios were used for the future time period in order to provide an estimate of the extent of air pollution reductions that could occur if (a) all currently planned air quality legislation is implemented and (b) all maximum technologically feasible emission reductions are implemented. The results showed that summer O3 could be reduced by between 4 and 5 ppb under a current legislation scenario, with at least 3 ppb of further reductions under the maximum mitigated scenario. Calculations of summer ozone enhancement were used as a metric to analyse the results after having removed background ozone level changes. In conclusion it was found that future air quality on a regional scale will depend upon the implementation of effective emission reduction policy; the positive effects of which should not be hindered by a +2 °C global warming.

  9. Modelling Emissions From Boreal Wildfires for Climate Change and Air Quality Issues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavoue, D.; Gong, S.; Stocks, B. J.; Rousseau, J.

    2005-12-01

    We developed an original approach to model emissions from boreal forest fires based on weather conditions, forest fuel patterns, and topography. The Canadian FBP (Fire Behavior Prediction) System permits calculation of fuel consumption and rate of spread for individual fires on an hourly basis. Weather conditions are obtained by running the Canadian weather forecast model GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale) at the regional configuration of 24 km. A fire growth parameterization was established from the study of a few Canadian wildfires. Geographical distribution and temporal variability of emission amounts, as well as injection heights, are assessed hourly. The emission-processing package was applied to the Quebec forest fires in the summer of 2002. About 200 fires contributed to 21% and 3% of annual Quebec and Canada s greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. They also represented 17% and 79% of all Canada s black carbon and particulate organic carbon sources, respectively. Emission sources were integrated in the air quality model CHRONOS of Environment Canada, which allowed significant improvement of simulated particle concentrations in the east of Canada and US. A dynamic model was also designed to forecast wildfire emissions. The previous fire growth parameterization is replaced by a growth model based on elliptical wavelet propagation, with the fire front spread driven by GEM weather forecast. The new model takes into account the variability of the relative proportions of both flaming and smoldering combustion phases. Moreover, it estimates convection column heights from the energy released at the different fireline sections. A cluster analysis of MODIS hotspots is performed to define initial perimeters of individual fires, when ignition points are unknown. The dynamic emission model was applied to a few typical large boreal forest fires. Main results will be presented.

  10. Climatic effects of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emissions and associated feedbacks due to vegetation change in the boreal zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blichner, Sara Marie; Koren Berntsen, Terje; Stordal, Frode

    2017-04-01

    As our understanding of the earth system improves, it is becoming increasingly clear that vegetation and ecosystems are not only influenced by the atmosphere, but that changes in these also feed back to the atmosphere and induce changes here. One such feedback involves the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emitted from vegetation. As BVOCs are oxidized, they become less volatile and contribute to aerosol growth and formation in the atmosphere, and can thus change the radiative balance of the atmosphere through both the direct and indirect aerosol effects. The amount and type of BVOCs emitted by vegetation depends on a myriad of variables; temperature, leaf area index (LAI), species, water availability and various types of stress (e.g. insects attacks). They generally increase with higher temperatures and under stress. These factors beg the question of how emissions will change in the future in response to both temperature increase and changes to vegetation patterns and densities. The boreal region is of particular interest because forest cover in general has been thought to have a warming effect due to trees reducing the albedo, especially when snow covers the ground. We investigate feedbacks through BVOC emissions related to the expected northward expansion of boreal forests in response to global warming with a development version of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). BVOC emissions are computed by the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature 2.1 (MEGAN2.1) which is incorporated into the Community Land Model v4.5 (CLM4.5). The atmospheric component is CAM5.3-Oslo. We will present preliminary results of effects on clouds and aerosol concentrations resulting from a fixed poleward shift in boreal forests and compare the radiative effects of this to changes in surface energy fluxes. CO2-concentrations and sea surface temperatures are kept fixed in order to isolate the effects of the change in vegetation patterns. Finally

  11. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    DOE PAGES

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; ...

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmosphericmore » version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the

  12. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    SciTech Connect

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; Bleck, R.; Canuto, V.; Cheng, Y.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A. D.; Faluvegi, G.; Hansen, J. E.; Healy, R. J.; Kiang, N. Y.; Koch, D.; Lacis, A. A.; LeGrande, A. N.; Lerner, J.; Lo, K. K.; Menon, S.; Oinas, V.; Perlwitz, J.; Puma, M. J.; Rind, D.; Romanou, A.; Sato, M.; Shindell, D. T.; Sun, S.; Tsigaridis, K.; Unger, N.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yao, M. -S.; Zhang, Jinlun

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R

  13. Estimating national landfill methane emissions: an application of the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Waste Model in Panama.

    PubMed

    Weitz, Melissa; Coburn, Jeffrey B; Salinas, Edgar

    2008-05-01

    This paper estimates national methane emissions from solid waste disposal sites in Panama over the time period 1990-2020 using both the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Waste Model spreadsheet and the default emissions estimate approach presented in the 1996 IPCC Good Practice Guidelines. The IPCC Waste Model has the ability to calculate emissions from a variety of solid waste disposal site types, taking into account country- or region-specific waste composition and climate information, and can be used with a limited amount of data. Countries with detailed data can also run the model with country-specific values. The paper discusses methane emissions from solid waste disposal; explains the differences between the two methodologies in terms of data needs, assumptions, and results; describes solid waste disposal circumstances in Panama; and presents the results of this analysis. It also demonstrates the Waste Model's ability to incorporate landfill gas recovery data and to make projections. The former default method methane emissions estimates are 25 Gg in 1994, and range from 23.1 Gg in 1990 to a projected 37.5 Gg in 2020. The Waste Model estimates are 26.7 Gg in 1994, ranging from 24.6 Gg in 1990 to 41.6 Gg in 2020. Emissions estimates for Panama produced by the new model were, on average, 8% higher than estimates produced by the former default methodology. The increased estimate can be attributed to the inclusion of all solid waste disposal in Panama (as opposed to only disposal in managed landfills), but the increase was offset somewhat by the different default factors and regional waste values between the 1996 and 2006 IPCC guidelines, and the use of the first-order decay model with a time delay for waste degradation in the IPCC Waste Model.

  14. Greenhouse gas emissions from agro-ecosystems and their contribution to environmental change in the Indus Basin of Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iqbal, M. Mohsin; Goheer, M. Arif

    2008-11-01

    There is growing concern that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been responsible for global warming through their effect on radiation balance and temperature. The magnitude of emissions and the relative importance of different sources vary widely, regionally and locally. The Indus Basin of Pakistan is the food basket of the country and agricultural activities are vulnerable to the effects of global warming due to accelerated emissions of GHGs. Many developments have taken place in the agricultural sector of Pakistan in recent decades in the background of the changing role of the government and the encouragement of the private sector for investment in new ventures. These interventions have considerable GHG emission potential. Unfortunately, no published information is currently available on GHG concentrations in the Indus Basin to assess their magnitude and emission trends. The present study is an attempt to estimate GHG (CO2, CH4 and N2O) emissions arising from different agro-ecosystems of Indus Basin. The GHGs were estimated mostly using the IPCC Guidelines and data from the published literature. The results showed that CH4 emissions were the highest (4.126 Tg yr-1) followed by N2O (0.265 Tg yr-1) and CO2 (52.6 Tg yr-1). The sources of CH4 are enteric fermentation, rice cultivation and cultivation of other crops. N2O is formed by microbial denitrification of NO3 produced from applied fertilizer-N on cropped soils or by mineralization of native organic matter on fallow soils. CO2 is formed by the burning of plant residue and by soil respiration due to the decomposition of soil organic matter.

  15. Valuing Non-CO2 GHG Emission Changes in Benefit-Cost ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The climate impacts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions impose social costs on society. To date, EPA has not had an approach to estimate the economic benefits of reducing emissions of non-CO2 GHGs (or the costs of increasing them) that is consistent with the methodology underlying the U.S. Government’s current estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC). A recently published paper presents estimates of the social cost of methane that are consistent with the SCC estimates. The Agency is seeking review of the potential application of these new benefit estimates to benefit cost analysis in relation to current practice in this area. The goal of this project is to improve upon the current treatment of non-CO2 GHG emission impacts in benefit-cost analysis.

  16. Valuing Non-CO2 GHG Emission Changes in Benefit-Cost ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The climate impacts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions impose social costs on society. To date, EPA has not had an approach to estimate the economic benefits of reducing emissions of non-CO2 GHGs (or the costs of increasing them) that is consistent with the methodology underlying the U.S. Government’s current estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC). A recently published paper presents estimates of the social cost of methane that are consistent with the SCC estimates. The Agency is seeking review of the potential application of these new benefit estimates to benefit cost analysis in relation to current practice in this area. The goal of this project is to improve upon the current treatment of non-CO2 GHG emission impacts in benefit-cost analysis.

  17. 21st century United States emissions mitigation could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mitigating

    PubMed Central

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Voisin, Nathalie; Liu, Lu; Bramer, Lisa M.; Fortin, Daniel C.; Hathaway, John E.; Huang, Maoyi; Kyle, Page; Leung, L. Ruby; Li, Hong-Yi; Liu, Ying; Patel, Pralit L.; Pulsipher, Trenton C.; Rice, Jennie S.; Tesfa, Teklu K.; Vernon, Chris R.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2015-01-01

    There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water resources requires accounting for the second part of the equation, i.e., the impact of mitigation-induced changes in water demands from human activities. By using integrated, high-resolution models of human and natural system processes to understand potential synergies and/or constraints within the climate–energy–water nexus, we show that in the United States, over the course of the 21st century and under one set of consistent socioeconomics, the reductions in water stress from slower rates of climate change resulting from emission mitigation are overwhelmed by the increased water stress from the emissions mitigation itself. The finding that the human dimension outpaces the benefits from mitigating climate change is contradictory to the general perception that climate change mitigation improves water conditions. This research shows the potential for unintended and negative consequences of climate change mitigation. PMID:26240363

  18. 21st century United States emissions mitigation could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mitigating.

    PubMed

    Hejazi, Mohamad I; Voisin, Nathalie; Liu, Lu; Bramer, Lisa M; Fortin, Daniel C; Hathaway, John E; Huang, Maoyi; Kyle, Page; Leung, L Ruby; Li, Hong-Yi; Liu, Ying; Patel, Pralit L; Pulsipher, Trenton C; Rice, Jennie S; Tesfa, Teklu K; Vernon, Chris R; Zhou, Yuyu

    2015-08-25

    There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water resources requires accounting for the second part of the equation, i.e., the impact of mitigation-induced changes in water demands from human activities. By using integrated, high-resolution models of human and natural system processes to understand potential synergies and/or constraints within the climate-energy-water nexus, we show that in the United States, over the course of the 21st century and under one set of consistent socioeconomics, the reductions in water stress from slower rates of climate change resulting from emission mitigation are overwhelmed by the increased water stress from the emissions mitigation itself. The finding that the human dimension outpaces the benefits from mitigating climate change is contradictory to the general perception that climate change mitigation improves water conditions. This research shows the potential for unintended and negative consequences of climate change mitigation.

  19. Changes in timber haul emissions in the context of shifting forest management and infrastructure

    PubMed Central

    Healey, Sean P; Blackard, Jock A; Morgan, Todd A; Loeffler, Dan; Jones, Greg; Songster, Jon; Brandt, Jason P; Moisen, Gretchen G; DeBlander, Larry T

    2009-01-01

    Background Although significant amounts of carbon may be stored in harvested wood products, the extraction of that carbon from the forest generally entails combustion of fossil fuels. The transport of timber from the forest to primary milling facilities may in particular create emissions that reduce the net sequestration value of product carbon storage. However, attempts to quantify the effects of transport on the net effects of forest management typically use relatively sparse survey data to determine transportation emission factors. We developed an approach for systematically determining transport emissions using: 1) -remotely sensed maps to estimate the spatial distribution of harvests, and 2) - industry data to determine landscape-level harvest volumes as well as the location and processing totals of individual mills. These data support spatial network analysis that can produce estimates of fossil carbon released in timber transport. Results Transport-related emissions, evaluated as a fraction of transported wood carbon at 4 points in time on a landscape in western Montana (USA), rose from 0.5% in 1988 to 1.7% in 2004 as local mills closed and spatial patterns of harvest shifted due to decreased logging on federal lands. Conclusion The apparent sensitivity of transport emissions to harvest and infrastructure patterns suggests that timber haul is a dynamic component of forest carbon management that bears further study both across regions and over time. The monitoring approach used here, which draws only from widely available monitoring data, could readily be adapted to provide current and historical estimates of transport emissions in a consistent way across large areas. PMID:19874619

  20. Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions.

    PubMed

    Molina, Mario; Zaelke, Durwood; Sarma, K Madhava; Andersen, Stephen O; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Kaniaru, Donald

    2009-12-08

    Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of "dangerous anthropogenic interference" (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for "early," "urgent," "rapid," and "fast-action" mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define "fast-action" to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2-3 years, be substantially implemented in 5-10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO(2) GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO(2) emissions.

  1. Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions

    PubMed Central

    Molina, Mario; Zaelke, Durwood; Sarma, K. Madhava; Andersen, Stephen O.; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Kaniaru, Donald

    2009-01-01

    Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for “early,” “urgent,” “rapid,” and “fast-action” mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define “fast-action” to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2–3 years, be substantially implemented in 5–10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO2 GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO2 emissions. PMID:19822751

  2. High-resolution records of soil humification and paleoclimate change from variations in speleothem luminescence excitation and emission wavelengths

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Andy; Genty, Dominique; Smart, Peter L.

    1998-10-01

    Recent advances in the precision and accuracy of the optical techniques required to measure luminescence permit the nondestructive analysis of solid geologic samples such as speleothems (secondary carbonate deposits in caves). In this paper we show that measurement of speleothem luminescence demonstrates a strong relationship between the excitation and emission wavelengths and both the extent of soil humification and mean annual rainfall. Raw peat with blanket bog vegetation has the highest humification and highest luminescence excitation and emission matrix wavelengths, because of the higher proportion of high-molecular-weight organic acids in these soils. Brown ranker and rendzina soils with dry grassland and woodland cover have the lowest wavelengths. Detailed analysis of one site where an annually laminated stalagmite has been deposited over the past 70 yr during a period with instrumental climate records and no vegetation change suggests that more subtle variations in luminescence emission wavelength correlate best with mean annual rainfall, although there is a lag of ˜10 yr. These results are used to interpret soil humification and climate change from a 130 ka speleothem at an upland site in Yorkshire, England. These data provide a new continuous terrestrial record of climate and environmental change for northwestern Europe and suggest the presence of significant variations in wetness and vegetation within interglacial and interstadial periods.

  3. The effect of changing cow production and fitness traits on net income and greenhouse gas emissions from Australian dairy systems.

    PubMed

    Bell, M J; Eckard, R J; Haile-Mariam, M; Pryce, J E

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the effect of changing a range of biological traits on farm net income and greenhouse gas emissions (expressed in carbon dioxide equivalents, CO2-eq.) in the Australian dairy cow population. An average cow was modeled, using breed-average information for Holsteins and Jerseys from the Australian Dairy Herd Improvement Scheme. A Markov chain approach was used to describe the steady-state herd structure, as well as estimate the CO2-eq. emissions per cow and per kilogram of milk solids. The effects of a single unit change in herd milk volume, fat and protein yields, live weight, survival, dry matter intake, somatic cell count, and calving interval were assessed. With the traits studied, the only single-unit change that would bring about a desirable increase in both net income and reduced emissions intensity per cow and per kilogram of milk solids in Australian dairy herds would be an increase in survival and reductions in milk volume, live weight, DMI, SCC, and calving interval. The models developed can be used to assess lifetime dairy system abatement options by breeding, feeding, and management. Selective breeding and appropriate management can both improve health, fertility, and feed utilization of Australian dairy systems and reduce its environmental impact. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Changes in the use and management of forests for abating carbon emissions: issues and challenges under the Kyoto Protocol.

    PubMed

    Brown, Sandra; Swingland, Ian R; Hanbury-Tenison, Robin; Prance, Ghillean T; Myers, Norman

    2002-08-15

    The global carbon cycle is significantly influenced by changes in the use and management of forests and agriculture. Humans have the potential through changes in land use and management to alter the magnitude of forest-carbon stocks and the direction of forest-carbon fluxes. However, controversy over the use of biological means to absorb or reduce emissions of CO(2) (often referred to as carbon 'sinks') has arisen in the context of the Kyoto Protocol. The controversy is based primarily on two arguments: sinks may allow developed nations to delay or avoid actions to reduce fossil fuel emissions, and the technical and operational difficulties are too threatening to the successful implementation of land use and forestry projects for providing carbon offsets. Here we discuss the importance of including carbon sinks in efforts to address global warming and the consequent additional social, environmental and economic benefits to host countries. Activities in tropical forest lands provide the lowest cost methods both of reducing emissions and reducing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. We conclude that the various objections raised as to the inclusion of carbon sinks to ameliorate climate change can be addressed by existing techniques and technology. Carbon sinks provide a practical available method of achieving meaningful reductions in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide while at the same time contribute to national sustainable development goals.

  5. The effect of localized surface plasmon resonance on the emission color change in organic light emitting diodes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Illhwan; Park, Jae Yong; Hong, Kihyon; Son, Jun Ho; Kim, Sungjun; Lee, Jong-Lam

    2016-03-01

    Three primary colors, cyan, yellow, and green, are obtained from Ag nano-dot embedded organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs) by localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR). By changing the thickness of the Ag film, the size and spacing of Ag nano-dots are controlled. The generated light from the emissive layer in the OLEDs interacts with the free electrons near the surface of the Ag nano-dots, which leads to LSPR absorption and scattering. The UV-visible absorption spectra of glass/ITO/Ag nano-dot samples show intense peaks from 430 nm to 520 nm with an increase of Ag nano-dot size. And also, the Rayleigh scattering spectra results show the plasmon resonance wavelength in the range of 470-550 nm. The effect of the LSPR of Ag nano-dots on the change of emission color in OLEDs is demonstrated using 2 dimensional finite-difference time-domain simulations. The intensity of the electro-magnetic field in the sample with 5 nm-thick Ag is low at the incident wavelength of 500 nm, but it increases with the incident wavelength. This provides evidence that the emission color change in OLEDs originates from LSPR at the Ag nano-dots. As a result, the emission peak wavelength of OLEDs shifted toward longer wavelengths, from cyan to yellow-green, with the increase of Ag nano-dot size.Three primary colors, cyan, yellow, and green, are obtained from Ag nano-dot embedded organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs) by localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR). By changing the thickness of the Ag film, the size and spacing of Ag nano-dots are controlled. The generated light from the emissive layer in the OLEDs interacts with the free electrons near the surface of the Ag nano-dots, which leads to LSPR absorption and scattering. The UV-visible absorption spectra of glass/ITO/Ag nano-dot samples show intense peaks from 430 nm to 520 nm with an increase of Ag nano-dot size. And also, the Rayleigh scattering spectra results show the plasmon resonance wavelength in the range of 470-550 nm. The

  6. Changes in timber haul emissions in the context of shifting forest management and infrastructure

    Treesearch

    Sean P. Healey; Jock A. Blackard; Todd A. Morgan; Dan Loeffler; Greg Jones; Jon Songster; Jason P. Brandt; Gretchen G. Moisen; Larry T. DeBlander

    2009-01-01

    Although significant amounts of carbon may be stored in harvested wood products, the extraction of that carbon from the forest generally entails combustion of fossil fuels. The transport of timber from the forest to primary milling facilities may in particular create emissions that reduce the net sequestration value of product carbon storage. However, attempts to...

  7. Will Aerosol Hygroscopicity Change with Biodiesel, Renewable Diesel Fuels and Emission Control Technologies?

    PubMed

    Vu, Diep; Short, Daniel; Karavalakis, Georgios; Durbin, Thomas D; Asa-Awuku, Akua

    2017-02-07

    The use of biodiesel and renewable diesel fuels in compression ignition engines and aftertreatment technologies may affect vehicle exhaust emissions. In this study two 2012 light-duty vehicles equipped with direct injection diesel engines, diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC), diesel particulate filter (DPF), and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) were tested on a chassis dynamometer. One vehicle was tested over the Federal Test Procedure (FTP) cycle on seven biodiesel and renewable diesel fuel blends. Both vehicles were exercised over double Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Highway fuel economy test (HWFET) cycles on ultralow sulfur diesel (ULSD) and a soy-based biodiesel blend to investigate the aerosol hygroscopicity during the regeneration of the DPF. Overall, the apparent hygroscopicity of emissions during nonregeneration events is consistently low (κ < 0.1) for all fuels over the FTP cycle. Aerosol emitted during filter regeneration is significantly more CCN active and hygroscopic; average κ values range from 0.242 to 0.439 and are as high as 0.843. Regardless of fuel, the current classification of "fresh" tailpipe emissions as nonhygroscopic remains true during nonregeneration operation. However, aftertreatment technologies such as DPF, will produce significantly more hygroscopic particles during regeneration. To our knowledge, this is the first study to show a significant enhancement of hygroscopic materials emitted during DPF regeneration of on-road diesel vehicles. As such, the contribution of regeneration emissions from a growing fleet of diesel vehicles will be important.

  8. Production, management, and environment symposium: Environmental footprint of livestock production - Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    This manuscript is the introduction to the 2015 Production, Management, and Environment symposium titled “Environmental Footprint of Livestock Production – Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change” that was held at the Joint Annual Meeting of the ASAS and ADSA at the Rosen Shingle Creek Resort in...

  9. Mitigation Strategies for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agriculture and Land-Use Change: Consequences for Food Prices.

    PubMed

    Stevanović, Miodrag; Popp, Alexander; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Humpenöder, Florian; Müller, Christoph; Weindl, Isabelle; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Wang, Xiaoxi

    2017-01-03

    The land use sector of agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) plays a central role in ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. Yet, mitigation policies in agriculture may be in conflict with food security related targets. Using a global agro-economic model, we analyze the impacts on food prices under mitigation policies targeting either incentives for producers (e.g., through taxes) or consumer preferences (e.g., through education programs). Despite having a similar reduction potential of 43-44% in 2100, the two types of policy instruments result in opposite outcomes for food prices. Incentive-based mitigation, such as protecting carbon-rich forests or adopting low-emission production techniques, increase land scarcity and production costs and thereby food prices. Preference-based mitigation, such as reduced household waste or lower consumption of animal-based products, decreases land scarcity, prevents emissions leakage, and concentrates production on the most productive sites and consequently lowers food prices. Whereas agricultural emissions are further abated in the combination of these mitigation measures, the synergy of strategies fails to substantially lower food prices. Additionally, we demonstrate that the efficiency of agricultural emission abatement is stable across a range of greenhouse-gas (GHG) tax levels, while resulting food prices exhibit a disproportionally larger spread.

  10. Mutations in Transhydrogenase Change the Fluorescence Emission State of TRP72 from 1La to 1Lb

    PubMed Central

    Tveen Jensen, Karina; Strambini, Giovanni; Gonnelli, Margherita; Broos, Jaap; Jackson, J. Baz

    2008-01-01

    The dI component of Rhodospirillum rubrum transhydrogenase has a single Trp residue (Trp72), which has distinctive optical properties, including short-wavelength fluorescence emission with clear vibrational fine structure, and long-lived, well-resolved phosphorescence emission. We have made a set of mutant dI proteins in which residues contacting Trp72 are conservatively substituted. The room-temperature fluorescence-emission spectra of our three Met97 mutants are blue shifted by ∼4 nm, giving them a shorter-wavelength emission than any other protein described in the literature, including azurin from Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Fluorescence spectra in low-temperature glasses show equivalent well-resolved vibrational bands in wild-type and the mutant dI proteins, and in azurin. Substitution of Met97 in dI changes the relative intensities of some of these vibrational bands. The analysis supports the view that fluorescence from the Met97 mutants arises predominantly from the 1Lb excited singlet state of Trp72, whereas 1La is the predominant emitting state in wild-type dI. It is suggested that the sulfur atom of Met97 promotes greater stabilization of 1La than either 1Lb or the ground state. The phosphorescence spectra of Met97 mutants are also blue-shifted, indicating that the sulfur atom decreases the transition energy between the 3La state of the Trp and the ground state. PMID:18599622

  11. Simulated effects of changes in direct and diffuse radiation on canopy scale isoprene emissions from vegetation following volcanic eruptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilton, D. J.; Hewitt, C. N.; Beerling, D. J.

    2011-03-01

    Volcanic eruptions can alter the quality of incoming solar irradiance reaching the Earth's surface thereby influencing the interactions between vegetation and the Earth system. Isoprene (C5H8) is a biogenic volatile organic compound emitted from leaves at a rate strongly dependent on the received flux of photosynthetically radiation radiation (PAR). We investigated the potential for volcanic eruptions to change the isoprene flux from terrestrial vegetation using canopy-scale isoprene emission simulations that vary either the relative or absolute amount of diffuse (Idiff) and direct (Idir) PAR. According to our simulations, if the total amount of PAR remains constant while the proportion of Idiff increases, canopy-scale isoprene emissions increase. This effect increases as leaf area index increases. Simulating a~decrease in the total amount of PAR, and a corresponding increase in Idiff fraction, as measured during the 1992 Pinatubo eruption, decreases daily total canopy-scale isoprene emissions from terrestrial vegetation by 17-19% (for leaf area indices of 6 and 2, respectively). These effects have not previously been realized or quantified. Better capturing the effects of volcanic eruptions (and other major perturbations to the atmospheric aerosol content) on isoprene emissions from the terrestrial biosphere, and hence on the chemistry of the atmosphere, therefore requires inclusion of the effects of aerosols they produce on climate and total PAR and the Idiff/Idir ratio.

  12. Greenhouse gas emission response to global change may be limited by vegetation community shifts

    EPA Science Inventory

    Coastal marshes experience a confluence of global changes including climate change, sea level rise, exotic species invasion, and eutrophication. These changes are likely to exert new abiotic stressors and affect interspecific interactions that influence vegetation community stru...

  13. Greenhouse gas emission response to global change may be limited by vegetation community shifts

    EPA Science Inventory

    Coastal marshes experience a confluence of global changes including climate change, sea level rise, exotic species invasion, and eutrophication. These changes are likely to exert new abiotic stressors and affect interspecific interactions that influence vegetation community stru...

  14. Spatially-Explicit Estimates of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Fire and Land-Use Change in the Brazilian Cerrado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galford, G. L.; Spera, S. A.; Coe, M. T.; Costa, C., Jr.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the multiple types of land-use changes that can occur within an ecosystem provides a comprehensive picture of the human's impact on natural systems. We use the Cerrado (savanna) of Brazil to examine the primary and secondary impacts of land-use change on greenhouse gas emissions. The primary land-use changes include fires for land-clearing, conversions to pasture and row-crop agriculture, and shifting management practices of agricultural lands. Secondary land-use changes include savanna degradation due to fires that escape from intended burn areas. These escape fires typically have a lower combustion completion coefficient than clearing fires, so it is important to distinguish them to correctly estimate the regional greenhouse gas budget. We have created a first-order spatio-temporal model of greenhouse gas emissions that can be easily modified for other savanna regions using globally available data products as inputs. Our data inputs are derived from publically available remote sensing imagery. Initial biomass is estimated by Baccini et al. 2012, which is derived from LiDAR and MODIS imagery. All other input data sets give annual estimates. Clearing of the savanna is documented by LAPIG of Universidade Federal de Goias using MODIS (MOD13Q1), LANDSAT and CBERS images. MODIS burned area products delineate annual fires; in combination with the savanna clearing database we determine primary and escape fires. Pastures and row-crop agriculture are documented by LAPIG and Spera et al. 2014, respectively. The row-crop agriculture dataset enables us to estimate greenhouse gas emissions associated with specific crops (e.g., soy or maize) and management (e.g., fertilizer use). Recent contributions to the literature have provided many in situ measurements from the land-use changes of interest needed to estimate a regional greenhouse gas budget, including combustion coefficients of savanna sub-types, carbon emission soil stocks, nitrogen emissions from fertilizer

  15. Tropospheric Ozone Changes, Radiative Forcing and Attribution to Emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stevenson, D.S.; Young, P.J.; Naik, V.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Shindell, D. T.; Voulgarakis, A.; Skeie, R. B.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Myhre, G.; Berntsen, T. K.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m-2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (+/-1 standard deviation) in RFs of +/-17%. Three different radiation schemes were used - we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of +/-10 percent. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of +/-3 percent. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of +/-30 percent for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44+/-12 percent), nitrogen oxides (31 +/- 9 percent), carbon monoxide (15 +/- 3 percent) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 +/- 2 percent); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m(-2) DU(-1), a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m(-2); relative to 1750) for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some

  16. The Implications of Future Food Demand on Global Land Use, Land-Use Change Emissions, and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Luckow, P.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Eom, J.; Kim, S.; Moss, R.; Patel, P.

    2011-12-01

    In 2005, cropland accounted for approximately 10% of global land area. The amount of cropland needed in the future depends on a number of factors including global population, dietary preferences, and agricultural crop yields. In this paper, we explore the effect of various assumptions about global food demand and agricultural productivity between now and 2100 on global land use, land-use change emissions, and climate using the GCAM model. GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated, global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. For this analysis, we look at the effect of alternative socioeconomic pathways, crop yield improvement assumptions, and future meat demand scenarios on the demand for agricultural land. The three socioeconomic pathways explore worlds where global population in 2100 ranges from 6 billion people to 14 billion people. The crop yield improvement assumptions range from a world where yields do not improve beyond today's levels to a world with significantly higher crop productivity. The meat demand scenarios range from a vegetarian world to a world where meat is a dominant source of calories in the global diet. For each of these scenarios, we find that sufficient land exists to feed the global economy. However, rates of deforestation, bioenergy potential, land-use change emissions, and climate change differ across the scenarios. Under less favorable scenarios, deforestation rates, land-use change emissions, and the rate of climate change can be adversely affected.

  17. Comparing changes in transient-evoked otoacoustic emission and pure-tone audiometry following short exposure to industrial noise.

    PubMed

    Slliwinska-Kowalska, Mariola; Kotylo, Piotr; Hendler, Beata

    1999-01-01

    It has been suggested that otoacoustic emissions, particularly transient-evoked otoacoustic emissions (TEOAE), might be more sensitive in assessment of changes to the cochlea caused by noise than pure-tone audiometry (PTA). The aim of the study was to compare temporary threshold shifts with the changes in TEOAE following a six-hour exposure to industrial noise at the intensity of 85-97 dB (A). Thirty two male employees of a metal factory were screened. TEOAE, PTA and tympanometry were included in the hearing test battery. Both, PTA and TEOAE showed significant reduction due to noise exposure, but no correlation between temporary threshold shifts and decreases in either the overall TOAE level or the level of otoacoustic emission in the frequency bands was found. Our results confirm the high sensitivity of TEOAE to short exposure to industrial noise. This study may recommend this measurement as a method of evaluation for TTS conditions for hearing conservation programme purposes, in addition to pure-tone audiometry.

  18. The Impacts of Dietary Change on Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Land Use, Water Use, and Health: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Green, Rosemary; Joy, Edward J. M.; Smith, Pete; Haines, Andy

    2016-01-01

    Food production is a major driver of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water and land use, and dietary risk factors are contributors to non-communicable diseases. Shifts in dietary patterns can therefore potentially provide benefits for both the environment and health. However, there is uncertainty about the magnitude of these impacts, and the dietary changes necessary to achieve them. We systematically review the evidence on changes in GHG emissions, land use, and water use, from shifting current dietary intakes to environmentally sustainable dietary patterns. We find 14 common sustainable dietary patterns across reviewed studies, with reductions as high as 70–80% of GHG emissions and land use, and 50% of water use (with medians of about 20–30% for these indicators across all studies) possible by adopting sustainable dietary patterns. Reductions in environmental footprints were generally proportional to the magnitude of animal-based food restriction. Dietary shifts also yielded modest benefits in all-cause mortality risk. Our review reveals that environmental and health benefits are possible by shifting current Western diets to a variety of more sustainable dietary patterns. PMID:27812156

  19. Regional air quality management aspects of climate change: impact of climate mitigation options on regional air emissions.

    PubMed

    Rudokas, Jason; Miller, Paul J; Trail, Marcus A; Russell, Armistead G

    2015-04-21

    We investigate the projected impact of six climate mitigation scenarios on U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX) associated with energy use in major sectors of the U.S. economy (commercial, residential, industrial, electricity generation, and transportation). We use the EPA U.S. 9-region national database with the MARKet Allocation energy system model to project emissions changes over the 2005 to 2050 time frame. The modeled scenarios are two carbon tax, two low carbon transportation, and two biomass fuel choice scenarios. In the lower carbon tax and both biomass fuel choice scenarios, SO2 and NOX achieve reductions largely through pre-existing rules and policies, with only relatively modest additional changes occurring from the climate mitigation measures. The higher carbon tax scenario projects greater declines in CO2 and SO2 relative to the 2050 reference case, but electricity sector NOX increases. This is a result of reduced investments in power plant NOX controls in earlier years in anticipation of accelerated coal power plant retirements, energy penalties associated with carbon capture systems, and shifting of NOX emissions in later years from power plants subject to a regional NOX cap to those in regions not subject to the cap.

  20. [Carbon emissions and low-carbon regulation countermeasures of land use change in the city and town concentrated area of central Liaoning Province, China].

    PubMed

    Xi, Feng-ming; Liang, Wen-juan; Niu, Ming-fen; Wang, Jiao-yue

    2016-02-01

    Carbon emissions due to land use change have an important impact on global climate change. Adjustment of regional land use patterns has a great scientific significance to adaptation to a changing climate. Based on carbon emission/absorption parameters suitable for Liaoning Province, this paper estimated the carbon emission of land use change in the city and town concentrated area of central Liaoning Province. The results showed that the carbon emission and absorption were separately 308.51 Tg C and 11.64 Tg C from 1997 to 2010. It meant 3.8% of carbon emission. was offset by carbon absorption. Among the 296.87 Tg C net carbon emission of land use change, carbon emission of remaining land use type was 182.24 Tg C, accounting for 61.4% of the net carbon emission, while the carbon emission of land use transformation was 114.63 Tg C, occupying the rest 38.6% of net carbon emission. Through quantifying the mapping relationship between land use change and carbon emission, it was shown that during 1997-2004 the contributions of remaining construction land (40.9%) and cropland transform ation to construction land (40.6%) to carbon emission were larger, but the greater contributions to carbon absorption came from cropland transformation to forest land (38.6%) and remaining forest land (37.5%). During 2004-2010, the land use types for carbon emission and absorption were the same to the period of 1997-2004, but the contribution of remaining construction land to carbon emission increased to 80.6%, and the contribution of remaining forest land to carbon absorption increased to 71.7%. Based on the carbon emission intensity in different land use types, we put forward the low-carbon regulation countermeasures of land use in two aspects. In carbon emission reduction, we should strict control land transformation to construction land, increase the energy efficiency of construction land, and avoid excessive development of forest land and water. In carbon sink increase, we should

  1. Broadband hf emissions as an indicator of global changes within the ionosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rothkaehl, H.; Kłos, Z.

    The electromagnetic emission in the topside ionosphere has been investigated since first satellites were located on the orbits. The BF measurements can be used to diagnose the different electron plasma waves as well as the ionospheric electron density distribution. The paper presents the global distribution of HF radio noises in 0.1-15 MHz frequency, detected on board of low orbiting satellite CORONAS-1. The well-manifested global distribution feature of the observed spectra appears as remarkable enhancement of spectral density over Europe and part of Asia. The aim of this paper is to discuss the morphological and physical property of broad band HF emissions and correlation these events with human activity as well as natural environmental influences.

  2. Halocarbon emissions by selected tropical seaweeds: species-specific and compound-specific responses under changing pH

    PubMed Central

    Leedham Elvidge, Emma C.; Sturges, William T.; Malin, Gill; Abd Rahman, Noorsaadah

    2017-01-01

    Five tropical seaweeds, Kappaphycus alvarezii (Doty) Doty ex P.C. Silva, Padina australis Hauck, Sargassum binderi Sonder ex J. Agardh (syn. S. aquifolium (Turner) C. Agardh), Sargassum siliquosum J. Agardh and Turbinaria conoides (J. Agardh) Kützing, were incubated in seawater of pH 8.0, 7.8 (ambient), 7.6, 7.4 and 7.2, to study the effects of changing seawater pH on halocarbon emissions. Eight halocarbon species known to be emitted by seaweeds were investigated: bromoform (CHBr3), dibro­momethane (CH2Br2), iodomethane (CH3I), diiodomethane (CH2I2), bromoiodomethane (CH2BrI), bromochlorometh­ane (CH2BrCl), bromodichloromethane (CHBrCl2), and dibro­mochloromethane (CHBr2Cl). These very short-lived halocarbon gases are believed to contribute to stratospheric halogen concentrations if released in the tropics. It was observed that the seaweeds emit all eight halocarbons assayed, with the exception of K. alvarezii and S. binderi for CH2I2 and CH3I respectively, which were not measurable at the achievable limit of detection. The effect of pH on halocarbon emission by the seaweeds was shown to be species-specific and compound specific. The highest percentage changes in emissions for the halocarbons of interest were observed at the lower pH levels of 7.2 and 7.4 especially in Padina australis and Sargassum spp., showing that lower seawater pH causes elevated emissions of some halocarbon compounds. In general the seaweed least affected by pH change in terms of types of halocarbon emission, was P. australis. The commercially farmed seaweed K. alvarezii was very sensitive to pH change as shown by the high increases in most of the compounds in all pH levels relative to ambient. In terms of percentage decrease in maximum quantum yield of photosynthesis (Fv∕Fm) prior to and after incubation, there were no significant correlations with the various pH levels tested for all seaweeds. The correlation between percentage decrease in the maximum quantum yield of photosynthesis

  3. Halocarbon emissions by selected tropical seaweeds: species-specific and compound-specific responses under changing pH.

    PubMed

    Mithoo-Singh, Paramjeet Kaur; Keng, Fiona S-L; Phang, Siew-Moi; Leedham Elvidge, Emma C; Sturges, William T; Malin, Gill; Abd Rahman, Noorsaadah

    2017-01-01

    Five tropical seaweeds, Kappaphycus alvarezii (Doty) Doty ex P.C. Silva, Padina australis Hauck, Sargassum binderi Sonder ex J. Agardh (syn. S. aquifolium (Turner) C. Agardh), Sargassum siliquosum J. Agardh and Turbinaria conoides (J. Agardh) Kützing, were incubated in seawater of pH 8.0, 7.8 (ambient), 7.6, 7.4 and 7.2, to study the effects of changing seawater pH on halocarbon emissions. Eight halocarbon species known to be emitted by seaweeds were investigated: bromoform (CHBr3), dibro-momethane (CH2Br2), iodomethane (CH3I), diiodomethane (CH2I2), bromoiodomethane (CH2BrI), bromochlorometh-ane (CH2BrCl), bromodichloromethane (CHBrCl2), and dibro-mochloromethane (CHBr2Cl). These very short-lived halocarbon gases are believed to contribute to stratospheric halogen concentrations if released in the tropics. It was observed that the seaweeds emit all eight halocarbons assayed, with the exception of K. alvarezii and S. binderi for CH2I2 and CH3I respectively, which were not measurable at the achievable limit of detection. The effect of pH on halocarbon emission by the seaweeds was shown to be species-specific and compound specific. The highest percentage changes in emissions for the halocarbons of interest were observed at the lower pH levels of 7.2 and 7.4 especially in Padina australis and Sargassum spp., showing that lower seawater pH causes elevated emissions of some halocarbon compounds. In general the seaweed least affected by pH change in terms of types of halocarbon emission, was P. australis. The commercially farmed seaweed K. alvarezii was very sensitive to pH change as shown by the high increases in most of the compounds in all pH levels relative to ambient. In terms of percentage decrease in maximum quantum yield of photosynthesis (Fv∕Fm) prior to and after incubation, there were no significant correlations with the various pH levels tested for all seaweeds. The correlation between percentage decrease in the maximum quantum yield of photosynthesis (Fv

  4. Modeling of global biogenic emissions for key indirect greenhouse gases and their response to atmospheric CO2 increases and changes in land cover and climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, Zhining; Jain, Atul K.

    2005-11-01

    Natural emissions of nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) play a crucial role in the oxidation capacity of the lower atmosphere and changes in concentrations of major greenhouse gases (GHGs), particularly methane and tropospheric ozone. In this study, we integrate a global biogenic model within a terrestrial ecosystem model to investigate the vegetation and soil emissions of key indirect GHGs, e.g., isoprene, monoterpene, other NMVOCs (OVOC), CO, and NOx. The combination of a high-resolution terrestrial ecosystem model with satellite data allows investigation of the potential changes in net primary productivity (NPP) and resultant biogenic emissions of indirect GHGs due to atmospheric CO2 increases and changes in climate and land use practices. Estimated global total annual vegetation emissions for isoprene, monoterpene, OVOC, and CO are 601, 103, 102, and 73 Tg C, respectively. Estimated NOx emissions from soils are 7.51 Tg N. The land cover changes for croplands generally lead to a decline of vegetation emissions for isoprene OVOC, whereas temperature and atmospheric CO2 increases lead to higher vegetation emissions. The modeled global mean isoprene emissions show relatively large seasonal variations over the previous 20 years from 1981 to 2000 (as much as 31% from year to year). Savanna and boreal forests show large seasonal variations, whereas tropical forests with high plant productivity throughout the year show small seasonal variations. Results of biogenic emissions from 1981 to 2000 indicate that the CO2 fertilization effect, along with changes in climate and land use, causes the overall up-trend in isoprene and OVOC emissions over the past 2 decades. This relationship suggests that future emission scenario estimations for NMVOCs should account for effects of CO2 and climate in order to more accurately estimate local, regional, and global chemical composition of the atmosphere, the global carbon budget, and radiation balance of the Earth

  5. Innovative approach to retrieve land surface emissivity and land surface temperature in areas of highly dynamic emissivity changes by using thermal infrared data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heinemann, Sascha; Muro, Javier; Burkart, Andreas; Schultz, Johannes; Thonfeld, Frank; Menz, Gunter

    2016-04-01

    The land surface temperature (LST) is an extremely significant parameter in order to understand the processes of energetic interactions between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere. This knowledge is significant for various environmental research questions, particularly with regard to climate change. The current challenge is to reduce the higher deviations during daytime especially for bare areas with a maximum of 5.7 Kelvin. These temperature differences are time and vegetation cover dependent. This study shows an innovative approach to retrieve land surface emissivity (LSE) and LST by using thermal infrared (TIR) data from satellite sensors, such as SEVIRI and AATSR. So far there are no methods to derive LSE/LST particularly in areas of highly dynamic emissivity changes. Therefore especially for regions with large surface temperature amplitude in the diurnal cycle such as bare and uneven soil surfaces but also for regions with seasonal changes in vegetation cover including various surface areas such as grassland, mixed forests or agricultural land different methods were investigated to identify the most appropriate one. The LSE is retrieved by using the day/night Temperature-Independent Spectral Indices (TISI) method, while the Generalised Split-Window (GSW) method is used to retrieve the LST. Nevertheless different GSW algorithms show that equal LSEs lead to large LST differences. For bare surfaces during daytime the difference is about 6 Kelvin. Additionally LSE is also measured using a NDVI-based threshold method (NDVITHM) to distinguish between soil, dense vegetation cover and pixel composed of soil and vegetation. The data used for this analysis were derived from MODIS TIR. The analysis is implemented with IDL and an intercomparison is performed to determine the most effective methods. To compensate temperature differences between derived and ground truth data appropriate correction terms, by comparing derived LSE/LST data with ground-based measurements

  6. Innovative approach to retrieve land surface emissivity and land surface temperature in areas of highly dynamic emissivity changes by using thermal infrared data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heinemann, S.

    2015-12-01

    The land surface temperature (LST) is an extremely significant parameter in order to understand the processes of energetic interactions between Earth's surface and atmosphere. This knowledge is significant for various environmental research questions, particularly with regard to the recent climate change. This study shows an innovative approach to retrieve land surface emissivity (LSE) and LST by using thermal infrared (TIR) data from satellite sensors, such as SEVIRI and AATSR. So far there are no methods to derive LSE/LST particularly in areas of highly dynamic emissivity changes. Therefore especially for regions with large surface temperature amplitude in the diurnal cycle such as bare and uneven soil surfaces but also for regions with seasonal changes in vegetation cover including various surface areas such as grassland, mixed forests or agricultural land different methods were investigated to identify the most appropriate one. The LSE is retrieved by using the day/night Temperature-Independent Spectral Indices (TISI) method, and the Generalised Split-Window (GSW) method is used to retrieve the LST. Nevertheless different GSW algorithms show that equal LSEs lead to large LST differences. Additionally LSE is also measured using a NDVI-based threshold method (NDVITHM) to distinguish between soil, dense vegetation cover and pixel composed of soil and vegetation. The data used for this analysis were derived from MODIS TIR. The analysis is implemented with IDL and an intercomparison is performed to determine the most effective methods. To compensate temperature differences between derived and ground truth data appropriate correction terms by comparing derived LSE/LST data with ground-based measurements are developed. One way to calibrate LST retrievals is by comparing the canopy leaf temperature of conifers derived from TIR data with the surrounding air temperature (e.g. from synoptic stations). Prospectively, the derived LSE/LST data become validated with near

  7. Achieving dietary recommendations and reducing greenhouse gas emissions: modelling diets to minimise the change from current intakes.

    PubMed

    Horgan, Graham W; Perrin, Amandine; Whybrow, Stephen; Macdiarmid, Jennie I

    2016-04-07

    Average population dietary intakes do not reflect the wide diversity of dietary patterns across the population. It is recognised that most people in the UK do not meet dietary recommendations and have diets with a high environmental impact, but changing dietary habits has proved very difficult. The purpose of this study was to investigate the diversity in dietary changes needed to achieve a healthy diet and a healthy diet with lower greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) (referred to as a sustainable diet) by taking into account each individual's current diet and then minimising the changes they need to make. Linear programming was used to construct two new diets for each adult in the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (n = 1491) by minimising the changes to their current intake. Stepwise changes were applied until (i) dietary recommendations were achieved and (ii) dietary recommendations and a GHGE target were met. First, gradual changes (≤50%) were made to the amount of any foods currently eaten. Second, new foods were added to the diet. Third, greater reductions (≤75%) were made to the amount of any food currently eaten and finally, foods were removed from the diet. One person out of 1491 in the sample met all the dietary requirements based on their reported dietary intake. Only 7.5 and 4.6 % of people achieved a healthy diet and a sustainable diet, respectively, by changing the amount of any food they currently ate by up to 50 %. The majority required changes to the amount of each food eaten plus the addition of new foods. Fewer than 5 % had to remove foods they ate to meet recommendations. Sodium proved the most difficult nutrient recommendation to meet. The healthy diets and sustainable diets produced a 15 and 27 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions respectively. Since healthy diets alone do not produce substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, dietary guidelines need to include recommendations for environmental sustainability. Minimising the

  8. Changes in the carbon dioxide emission from soils in the course of postagrogenic succession in the Chernozems forest-steppe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karelin, D. V.; Lyuri, D. I.; Goryachkin, S. V.; Lunin, V. N.; Kudikov, A. V.

    2015-11-01

    The CO2 emission from soils in the course of the long-term postagrogenic succession on Calcic Chernozems under meadow-steppe vegetation was studied. Seasonal dynamics of the emission at different stages of the restoration of natural vegetation and long-term changes in the main pools of carbon in the soils and phytomass were examined. These data were used to create a regression model of the CO2 emission on the basis of data on the soil water content and temperature with a temporal resolution of 3 h. The results were compared with an analogous study of the postagrogenic succession on sandy Agropodzols of southern taiga. It was found that the long-term pattern of the CO2 emission has a bimodal character. The first maximum corresponds to the early stages of the succession (2-8 years) and is ensured by a sharp intensification of respiration in the organomineral soil horizons under the impact of plant species typical of these stages, active growth of their underground parts, and, probably, activation of microbiota in the rhizosphere. The second maximum of the emission is observed at the final stages of the succession and is mainly ensured by the increasing pool of steppe litter. A decrease in the soil temperature because of the thermal insulation of the soil surface by the accumulating litter and organic substances in the topsoil horizons leads to a temporary decrease in the emission intensity at the middle stages of the succession, when the litter pool is still not vary large. The restoration of the initial level of the CO2 emission typical of the natural cenoses is achieved in about 80-100 years after the abandoning of the cultivated fields, i.e., considerably faster than that in the southern taiga zone (150-170 years). The results of modeling suggest that this is caused by the considerable accumulation of steppe litter, organic substances, and phytomass in the topsoil horizons rather than by the somewhat increased heat supply owing to longer duration of vegetation

  9. Increased influence of nitrogen limitation on CO2 emissions from future land use and land-use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jain, A. K.; Meiyappan, P.; House, J.

    2015-12-01

    In the latest projections of future greenhouse gas emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), few Earth System Models included the effect of nitrogen limitation, a key process limiting forest regrowth. We estimate the impacts of nitrogen limitation on the CO2 emissions from land use and land-use change (LULUC), including wood harvest, for the period 1900-2100. We use a land-surface model that includes a fully coupled carbon and nitrogen cycle, and accounts for forest regrowth processes following agricultural abandonment and wood harvest. Future projections are based on the four Representation Concentration Pathways used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and we account for uncertainty in future climate for each scenario based on ensembles of climate model outputs. Results show that excluding nitrogen limitation will underestimate global LULUC emissions by 34-52 PgC (20-30%) during the 20th century (range across three different historical LULUC reconstructions) and by 128-187 PgC (90-150%) during the 21st century (range across the four IPCC scenarios). The full range for estimated LULUC emissions during the 21st century including climate model uncertainty is 91 to 227 PgC (with nitrogen limitation included). The underestimation increases with time because: (1) Projected annual wood harvest rates from forests summed over the 21st century are 380-1080% higher compared to those of the 20th century, resulting in more regrowing secondary forests, (2) Nitrogen limitation reduces the CO2 fertilization effect on net primary production of regrowing secondary forests following wood harvest and agricultural abandonment, and (3) Nitrogen limitation effect is aggravated by the gradual loss of soil nitrogen from LULUC disturbance. Our study implies that: (1) Nitrogen limitation of CO2 uptake is substantial and sensitive to nitrogen inputs, (2) If LULUC emissions are larger than previously estimated in studies without nitrogen limitation, then meeting

  10. Increased influence of nitrogen limitation on CO2 emissions from future land use and land use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meiyappan, Prasanth; Jain, Atul K.; House, Joanna I.

    2015-09-01

    In the latest projections of future greenhouse gas emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), few Earth System Models included the effect of nitrogen limitation, a key process limiting forest regrowth. Few included forest management (wood harvest). We estimate the impacts of nitrogen limitation on the CO2 emissions from land use and land use change (LULUC), including wood harvest, for the period 1900-2100. We use a land surface model that includes a fully coupled carbon and nitrogen cycle and accounts for forest regrowth processes following agricultural abandonment and wood harvest. Future projections are based on the four Representation Concentration Pathways used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and we account for uncertainty in future climate for each scenario based on ensembles of climate model outputs. Results show that excluding nitrogen limitation will underestimate global LULUC emissions by 34-52 PgC (20-30%) during the 20th century (range across three different historical LULUC reconstructions) and by 128-187 PgC (90-150%) during the 21st century (range across the four IPCC scenarios). The full range for estimated LULUC emissions during the 21st century including climate model uncertainty is 91 to 227 PgC (with nitrogen limitation included). The underestimation increases with time because (1) projected annual wood harvest rates from forests summed over the 21st century are 380-1080% higher compared to those of the 20th century, resulting in more regrowing secondary forests; (2) nitrogen limitation reduces the CO2 fertilization effect on net primary production of regrowing secondary forests following wood harvest and agricultural abandonment; and (3) nitrogen limitation effect is aggravated by the gradual loss of soil nitrogen from LULUC disturbance. Our study implies that (1) nitrogen limitation of CO2 uptake is substantial and sensitive to nitrogen inputs; (2) if LULUC emissions are larger than previously estimated in studies

  11. Role of Future Climate-induced Changes in Biogenic Emissions in Predictions of Future Ozone and Aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, W.; Liao, H.; Wang, H.

    2008-12-01

    An equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model, the BIOME4, is coupled with a previously developed unified general circulation model (GCM), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM II', that simulates coupled tropospheric ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, and secondary organic carbon aerosols (SOA). The vegetation-chemistry-aerosol-climate coupling allows one to evaluate the extent to which global burdens, radiative forcing, and eventually climate feedbacks of ozone and aerosols are influenced by climate-induced changes in natural vegetation and consequently in biogenic emissions. We simulate differences between years 2000 and 2100. Equilibrium climate change over 2000-2100 is driven by changes in long-lived greenhouse gases, tropospheric ozone, and anthropogenic aerosols. The year 2100 concentrations of greenhouse gases as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the IPCC scenario A2. Global biogenic emissions of isoprene and monoterpene are estimated to be, respectively, 504 and 133 Tg C yr-1 with present-day climatological and land-cover conditions, 868 and 255 Tg C yr-1 with year 2100 climate but present-day land-cover, as well as 885 and 301 Tg C yr-1 with both year 2100 climate and natural vegetation. Climate-induced changes in natural vegetation are shown to be important for simulations of future tropospheric ozone and aerosols, especially for nitrate and SOA. The global burden of biogenic SOA is predicted to double between present-day and year 2100. We compare the direct radiative forcing by SOA with the forcing values of other anthropogenic aerosols.

  12. Luminosity-dependent change of the emission diagram in the X-ray pulsar 4U 1626-67

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koliopanos, Filippos; Gilfanov, Marat

    2016-03-01

    We detect variability of the Fe K α emission line in the spectrum of X-ray pulsar 4U 1626-67, correlated with changes in its luminosity and in the shape of its pulse profile. Analysis of archival Chandra and RXTE observations revealed the presence of an intrinsically narrow Fe K α emission line in the spectrum obtained during the source's current high-luminosity period. However, the line was not present during an XMM-Newton observation seven years earlier, when the source was ˜three times fainter. The line is resolved by the high-energy grating of Chandra at the 98 per cent confidence level, and its small intrinsic width, σ =36.4_{-11.3}^{+15.3} eV, suggests reflection off an accretion disc at the radius R≈ (7.5_{-3.8}^{+8.2})× 10^8 cm assuming a Keplerian disk, viewed at an inclination angle of 20°. This value is consistent with the radius of the magnetosphere of the pulsar, suggesting that the line originates near the inner edge of a disc that is truncated by the magnetic field of the neutron star. Timing analysis of the XMM-Newton and RXTE data revealed a major change in the pulse profile of the source from a distinct double-peaked shape during the high-luminosity state when the line was present, to a much more complex multipeak structure during the low-luminosity state. We argue that the appearance of the line and the change in the shape of the pulse profile are correlated and are the result of a major change in the emission diagram of the accretion column, from a pencil-beam pattern at low luminosity, to a fan-beam pattern at high luminosity.

  13. Scenario analysis on the goal of carbon emission peaking around 2030 of China proposed in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, T.

    2015-12-01

    A goal of carbon (C) emission peaking around 2030 of China was declared in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change, and emphasized in China's intended nationally determined contributions (INDC). Here, we predicted the carbon emission of China during the period 2011~2050 under seven scenarios, and analyzed the scientific and social implications of realizing the goal. Our results showed that: (1) C emissions of China will reach their peaks at 2022~2045 (with peak values 3.15~5.10 Pg C), and the predicted decay rates of C intensity were 2.1~4.2% in 2011~2050; (2) the precondition that the national C emission reaches the peak before 2030 is that the annual decay rates of C intensity must exceed 3.3% , as decay rates under different scenarios were predicted higher than that except for Past G8 scenario; (3) the national C emission would reach the peak before 2030, if the government of China should realize the C emissions reduction goals of China's 12th five-year plan, climate commitments of Copenhagen and INDC; (4) Chinese government could realize the goal of C emission peaking around 2030 from just controlling C emission intensity , but associated with relatively higher government's burden. In summary, China's C emission may well peak before 2030, meanwhile the combination of emissions reduction and economic macro-control would be demanded to avoid heavier social pressure of C emissions reduction occurred.

  14. Reduction on NOx emissions on urban areas by changing specific vehicle fleets: effects on NO2 and O3 concentration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goncalves, M.; Jimenez, P.; Baldasano, J.

    2007-12-01

    The largest amount of NOx emissions in urban areas comes from on-road traffic, which is the largest contributor to urban air pollution (Colvile et al., 2001). Currently different strategies are being tested in order to reduce its effects; many of them oriented to the reduction of the unitary vehicles emissions, by alternative fuels use (such as biofuels, natural gas or hydrogen) or introduction of new technologies (such as hybrid electric vehicles or fuel cells). Atmospheric modelling permits to predict their consequences on tropospheric chemistry (Vautard et al., 2007). Hence, this work assesses the changes on NO2 and O3 concentrations when substituting a 10 per cent of the urban private cars fleets by petrol hybrid electric cars (HEC) or by natural gas cars (NGC) in Madrid and Barcelona urban areas (Spain). These two cities are selected in order to highlight the different patterns of pollutants transport (inland vs. coastal city) and the different responses to emissions reductions. The results focus on a typical summertime episode of air pollution, by means of the Eulerian air quality model ARW- WRF/HERMES/CMAQ, applied with high resolution (1-hr, 1km2) since of the complexity of bot