Hampton Roads climate impact quantification initiative : baseline assessment of the transportation assets & overview of economic analyses useful in quantifying impacts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-09-13

The Hampton Roads Climate Impact Quantification Initiative (HRCIQI) is a multi-part study sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) Climate Change Center with the goals that include developing a cost tool that provides methods for volu...

From medicine to butterflies and back again

PubMed Central

Parmesan, Camille

2014-01-01

My research focuses on the current impacts of climate change on wildlife, from field-based work on butterflies to synthetic analyses of global impacts on a broad range of species across terrestrial and marine biomes. I work actively with governmental agencies and NGOs to help develop conservation assessment and planning tools aimed at preserving biodiversity in the face of climate change. PMID:27583283

Observed changes and future trends in vulnerability to natural hazards for mountain communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puissant, A.; Gazo, A.; Débonnaire, N.; Moravek, A.; Aguejdad, R.; -P., Malet J.; B., Martin

2015-04-01

Since 50 years, mountain areas are affected by important landcover and landuse changes characterized by the decrease of pastoral activities, reforestation or urbanization with the development of tourism activities and infrastructures. These natural and anthropogenic transformations have an impact on the socio-economic activities but also on the exposure of the communities to natural hazards. In the context of the ANR Project SAMCO which aims at enhancing the overall resilience of societies on the impacts of mountain risks, the objective of this research was to analyse landcover/use changes and to model future changes to assess the impacts of such change and to analyse trajectory of the vulnerability of mountain communities. For this research, an experiment is performed for two mountain areas of the French Alps (Barcelonnette Basin, Vars Basin). Changes in landcover and landuse are characterized over the period 1956-2010 for the two communities at two spatial scales (catchment, municipality). Four scenarios of landcover and landuse development (based on the Prelude European Project) are proposed for the period 2050 and 2100. Based on these scenarios, the evolution of vulnerability is estimated by using the Potential Damage Index method proposed by Puissant et al. (2013).

Assessing the Benefits of Global Climate Stabilization Within an Integrated Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beach, R. H.

2015-12-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been a number of studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry. However, relatively few studies explore climate change impacts on both agriculture and forests simultaneously, including the interactions between alternative land uses and implications for market outcomes. Additionally, there is a lack of detailed analyses of the effects of stabilization scenarios relative to unabated emissions scenarios. Such analyses are important for developing estimates of the benefits of those stabilization scenarios, which can play a vital role in assessing tradeoffs associated with allocating resources across alternative mitigation and adaptation activities. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

Computational Study of the Impact of Unsteadiness on the Aerodynamic Performance of a Variable- Speed Power Turbine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welch, Gerard E.

2012-01-01

The design-point and off-design performance of an embedded 1.5-stage portion of a variable-speed power turbine (VSPT) was assessed using Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) analyses with mixing-planes and sector-periodic, unsteady RANS analyses. The VSPT provides one means by which to effect the nearly 50 percent main-rotor speed change required for the NASA Large Civil Tilt-Rotor (LCTR) application. The change in VSPT shaft-speed during the LCTR mission results in blade-row incidence angle changes of as high as 55 . Negative incidence levels of this magnitude at takeoff operation give rise to a vortical flow structure in the pressure-side cove of a high-turn rotor that transports low-momentum flow toward the casing endwall. The intent of the effort was to assess the impact of unsteadiness of blade-row interaction on the time-mean flow and, specifically, to identify potential departure from the predicted trend of efficiency with shaft-speed change of meanline and 3-D RANS/mixing-plane analyses used for design.

ENSO and anthropogenic impacts on phytoplankton diversity in tropical coastal waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doan-Nhu, Hai; Nguyen-Ngoc, Lam; Nguyen, Chi-Thoi

2016-01-01

16-year phytoplankton data were analysed to assess ENSO and anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity and community structure at 3 locations (Nha-Trang and Phan-Thiet Bays and near Phu-Qui Island) in South Centre Viet Nam to understand (1) the primary scales of change in phytoplankton community structure, and traditional and taxonomic diversity indices; (2) the significance of environmental changes and/or climate variability on phytoplankton diversity; and (3) the usefulness of these long-term data for analysing future impacts of anthropogenic and climate changes. Traditional and taxonomic diversity indices were compared and tested in linkage with environmental conditions and ENSO. Nutrient data indicated stronger environmental impacts in Phan-Thiet Bay, milder in Nha-Trang Bay and less noticeable near Phu-Qui Island. There were measurable impacts of both anthropogenic and ENSO on phytoplankton at different locations in various parameters, e.g. species number, diversity and community structures. The lowest diversity was recorded in the most anthropogenically impacted site, Phan-Thiet Bay. Although a stronger impact on phytoplankton was recorded in ENSO year in Phan Thiet Bay, quantitative separation between anthropogenic and ENSO impacts using phytoplankton biodiversity indices was impossible. In the waters with less anthropogenic impacts, ENSO effects on taxonomic diversity was better indicated by negative phytoplankton responses to the ONI index (Nha-Trang Bay) and recovery of phytoplankton after the ENSO events (near Phu-Qui Island). Among the diversity indices, the taxonomic diversity indices (e.g. Δ+ and Λ+) better described impacts of ENSO than the traditional ones.

Climate change and the effects of dengue upon Australia: An analysis of health impacts and costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newth, D.; Gunasekera, D.

2010-08-01

Projected regional warming and climate change analysis and health impact studies suggest that Australia is potentially vulnerable to increased occurrence of vector borne diseases such as dengue fever. Expansion of the dengue fever host, Aedes aegypti could potentially pose a significant public health risk. To manage such health risks, there is a growing need to focus on adaptive risk management strategies. In this paper, we combine analyses from climate, biophysical and economic models with a high resolution population model for disease spread, the EpiCast model to analyse the health impacts and costs of spread of dengue fever. We demonstrate the applicability of EpiCast as a decision support tool to evaluate mitigation strategies to manage the public health risks associated with shifts in the distribution of dengue fever in Australia.

Global food security under climate change

PubMed Central

Schmidhuber, Josef; Tubiello, Francesco N.

2007-01-01

This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on food security. It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies. To this end, published results indicate that the impacts of climate change are significant, however, with a wide projected range (between 5 million and 170 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2080) strongly depending on assumed socio-economic development. The likely impacts of climate change on the other important dimensions of food security are discussed qualitatively, indicating the potential for further negative impacts beyond those currently assessed with models. Finally, strengths and weaknesses of current assessment studies are discussed, suggesting improvements and proposing avenues for new analyses. PMID:18077404

The Reinvention of the Comprehensive School System in Finland: How Do Market-Oriented Reforms Impact upon Equity and Equality of Opportunity?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ylonen, Annamari

2009-01-01

This article examines the changing nature of comprehensive schooling in Finland since the 1990s and focuses on analysing the impact of the changes on equity and equality of opportunity. Comparisons are made between the development of "school markets" in the south of the country and the situation in the north of the country where the case…

Degrees of Isolation: The Impact of Climate Change on the Dispersal and Population Genetic Structure of Two Antarctic Fish Species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, E. F.; Belchier, M.; Meredith, M. P.; Tysklind, N.; Carvalho, G. R.

2016-02-01

Understanding the key drivers of larval dispersal and population connectivity in the marine environment is essential for estimating the potential impacts of climate change on the genetic structure and resilience of populations. Small, isolated and fragmented communities will differ fundamentally in their response and resilience to environmental stress, compared with species that are broadly distributed, abundant, and with a frequent exchange of members. Using a `seascape genetics' approach, combining oceanographic modelling and genetic analyses, we have elucidated the fundamental roles of oceanographic transport and planktonic duration on the connectivity and population genetic structure of two Antarctic fish species with contrasting early life histories, Champsocephalus gunnari and Notothenia rossii. Here, we extend these analyses to consider the impact of rising sea temperatures due to climate change on planktonic dispersal and population connectivity. Using a theoretical approach, the effect of increased water temperatures on mortality rates and species-specific egg and larval phase durations has been incorporated into the models, and the relative impact of these climate-related influences on connectivity and population genetic structure has been investigated. Here we present the key findings of our research and consider the roles of early life history and oceanography in the response of fragmented fish populations to climate change.

The Impact of Salient Role Stress on Trajectories of Health in Late Life among Survivors of a Seven-Year Panel Study: Analyses of Individual Growth Curves

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shaw, Benjamin A.; Krause, Neal

2002-01-01

The purpose of this study is twofold: 1) to model changes in health over time among older adults; and 2) to assess the degree to which stress arising in salient social roles accounts for individual variation in these changes. Individual growth curve analyses using Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM) software were employed with longitudinal data…

Influence of Geographic Factors on the Life Cycle Climate Change Impacts of Renewable Energy Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortier, M. O. P.

2017-12-01

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a valuable tool to measure the cradle-to-grave climate change impacts of the sustainable energy systems that are planned to replace conventional fossil energy-based systems. The recent inclusion of geographic specificity in bioenergy LCAs has shown that the relative sustainability of these energy sources is often dependent on geographic factors, such as the climate change impact of changing the land cover and local resource availability. However, this development has not yet been implemented to most LCAs of energy systems that do not have biological feedstocks, such as wind, water, and solar-based energy systems. For example, the tidal velocity where tidal rotors are installed can significantly alter the life cycle climate change impacts of electricity generated using the same technology in different locations. For LCAs of solar updraft towers, the albedo change impacts arising from changing the reflectivity of the land that would be converted can be of the same magnitude as other life cycle process climate change impacts. Improvements to determining the life cycle climate change impacts of renewable energy technologies can be made by utilizing GIS and satellite data and by conducting site-specific analyses. This practice can enhance our understanding of the life cycle environmental impacts of technologies that are aimed to reduce the impacts of our current energy systems, and it can improve the siting of new systems to optimize a reduction in climate change impacts.

Perspectives on Hydro-Climatic Change in Rivers Sourced From the Khangai Mountains, Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venable, N. B.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Tumenjargal, S.; Batbuyan, B.; Odgarav, J.; Sukhbataar, J.; Fernandez-Gimenez, M.; Adyabadam, G.

2012-12-01

Patterns of pastoralism have shaped the Mongolian countryside throughout history. These patterns are largely dictated by seasonal and extreme climate and water conditions. While change has always been a part of the traditional herder lifestyle, the magnitude and variety of impacts imposed by natural and human-induced changes in the last few decades has increased, negatively affecting the coupled natural-human systems of Mongolia. Regional hydrologic impacts from increased mining, irrigation, urbanization, and climate change are challenging to measure and model due to sparse and relatively short meteorological and hydrological records. Characterization of the variability inherent in Mongolian hydrological systems in the international literature remains limited. To quantify recent changes to these systems, several river basins near the Khangai Mountains were analyzed. These basins adjoin and include community-based managed and non-managed grazing lands under study as part of an ongoing National Science Foundation Coupled Natural and Human Systems (NSF-CNH) project. Statistically significant increasing temperatures and decreasing streamflows in the study areas support herder's perceptions of hydro-climatic changes and variability. The results of basin characterization combined with water balance modeling and trend analyses illustrate the future potential for further change in these hydro-climatic systems. Alternate land-uses and herder lifestyle modifications may amplify impacts from climatic change. Recent fieldwork also revealed complex surface-groundwater interactions in some areas that may affect model outcomes. Future explorations of longer-term variability through the use of proxies and the development of hydrologic scenarios will place the current basin analyses in context to more fully assess possible impacts to the hydrologic-human systems of Mongolia.

A landscape ecology approach to assessing development impacts in the tropics: A geothermal energy example in Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffith, J.A.; Trettin, C.C.; O'Neill, R. V.

2002-01-01

Geographic information systems (GIS) are increasingly being used in environmental impact assessments (EIA) because GIS is useful for analysing spatial impacts of various development scenarios. Spatially representing these impacts provides another tool for landscape ecology in environmental and geographical investigations by facilitating analysis of the effects of landscape patterns on ecological processes and examining change over time. Landscape ecological principles are applied in this study to a hypothetical geothermal development project on the Island of Hawaii. Some common landscape pattern metrics were used to analyse dispersed versus condensed development scenarios and their effect on landscape pattern. Indices of fragmentation and patch shape did not appreciably change with additional development. The amount of forest to open edge, however, greatly increased with the dispersed development scenario. In addition, landscape metrics showed that a human disturbance had a greater simplifying effect on patch shape and also increased fragmentation than a natural disturbance. The use of these landscape pattern metrics can advance the methodology of applying GIS to EIA.

Early changes in socioeconomic status do not predict changes in body mass in the first decade of life.

PubMed

Starkey, Leighann; Revenson, Tracey A

2015-04-01

Many studies link childhood socioeconomic status (SES) to body mass index (BMI), but few account for the impact of socioeconomic mobility throughout the lifespan. This study aims to investigate the impact of socioeconomic mobility on changes in BMI in childhood. Analyses tested whether [1] socioeconomic status influences BMI, [2] changes in socioeconomic status impact changes in BMI, and [3] timing of socioeconomic status mobility impacts BMI. Secondary data spanning birth to age 9 were analyzed. SES and BMI were investigated with gender, birth weight, maternal race/ethnicity, and maternal nativity as covariates. Autoregressive structural equation modeling and latent growth modeling were used. Socioeconomic status in the first year of life predicted body mass index. Child covariates were consistently associated with body mass index. Rate of change in socioeconomic status did not predict change in body mass index. The findings suggest that early socioeconomic status may most influence body mass in later childhood.

Request for Correction 12001 Analyses Associated with the Impact of Biofuels

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Request for Correction #11001 by the Competitive Enterprise Institute and ActionAid USA regarding the impacts of biofuel mandates on global hunger and mortality in the EPA's Regulation of Fuels and Fuel Additives: Changes to Renewable Fuel Standard Program, 40 CFR Part 80.

Analyses of interactions between the marine terminal and highway operations : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-04-01

Changes in vessel sizes arriving at United States ports may influence the operating regimes and schedules at the port terminals However, the impacts to highway and rail operations outside of the port terminals because of changing port terminal operat...

Evaluating the effects of climate change on US agricultural systems: sensitivity to regional impact and trade expansion scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Justin S.; Havlík, Petr; Beach, Robert; Leclère, David; Schmid, Erwin; Valin, Hugo; Cole, Jefferson; Creason, Jared; Ohrel, Sara; McFarland, James

2018-06-01

Agriculture is one of the sectors that is expected to be most significantly impacted by climate change. There has been considerable interest in assessing these impacts and many recent studies investigating agricultural impacts for individual countries and regions using an array of models. However, the great majority of existing studies explore impacts on a country or region of interest without explicitly accounting for impacts on the rest of the world. This approach can bias the results of impact assessments for agriculture given the importance of global trade in this sector. Due to potential impacts on relative competitiveness, international trade, global supply, and prices, the net impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector in each region depend not only on productivity impacts within that region, but on how climate change impacts agricultural productivity throughout the world. In this study, we apply a global model of agriculture and forestry to evaluate climate change impacts on US agriculture with and without accounting for climate change impacts in the rest of the world. In addition, we examine scenarios where trade is expanded to explore the implications for regional allocation of production, trade volumes, and prices. To our knowledge, this is one of the only attempts to explicitly quantify the relative importance of accounting for global climate change when conducting regional assessments of climate change impacts. The results of our analyses reveal substantial differences in estimated impacts on the US agricultural sector when accounting for global impacts vs. US-only impacts, particularly for commodities where the United States has a smaller share of global production. In addition, we find that freer trade can play an important role in helping to buffer regional productivity shocks.

Technical Change in the North American Forestry Sector: A Review

Treesearch

Jeffery C. Stier; David N. Bengston

1992-01-01

Economists have examined the impact of technical change on the forest products sector using the historical, index number, and econometric approaches. This paper reviews econometric analyses of the rate and bias of technical change, examining functional form, factors included, and empirical results. Studies are classified as first- second-, or third-generation...

Quantifying Vulnerability to Extreme Heat in Time Series Analyses: A Novel Approach Applied to Neighborhood Social Disparities under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Grenier, Patrick; Brand, Allan; Fournier, Michel; Deguen, Séverine; Smargiassi, Audrey

2015-01-01

Objectives: We propose a novel approach to examine vulnerability in the relationship between heat and years of life lost and apply to neighborhood social disparities in Montreal and Paris. Methods: We used historical data from the summers of 1990 through 2007 for Montreal and from 2004 through 2009 for Paris to estimate daily years of life lost social disparities (DYLLD), summarizing social inequalities across groups. We used Generalized Linear Models to separately estimate relative risks (RR) for DYLLD in association with daily mean temperatures in both cities. We used 30 climate scenarios of daily mean temperature to estimate future temperature distributions (2021–2050). We performed random effect meta-analyses to assess the impact of climate change by climate scenario for each city and compared the impact of climate change for the two cities using a meta-regression analysis. Results: We show that an increase in ambient temperature leads to an increase in social disparities in daily years of life lost. The impact of climate change on DYLLD attributable to temperature was of 2.06 (95% CI: 1.90, 2.25) in Montreal and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.61, 1.94) in Paris. The city explained a difference of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.49) on the impact of climate change. Conclusion: We propose a new analytical approach for estimating vulnerability in the relationship between heat and health. Our results suggest that in Paris and Montreal, health disparities related to heat impacts exist today and will increase in the future. PMID:26402690

Quantifying Vulnerability to Extreme Heat in Time Series Analyses: A Novel Approach Applied to Neighborhood Social Disparities under Climate Change.

PubMed

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Grenier, Patrick; Brand, Allan; Fournier, Michel; Deguen, Séverine; Smargiassi, Audrey

2015-09-22

We propose a novel approach to examine vulnerability in the relationship between heat and years of life lost and apply to neighborhood social disparities in Montreal and Paris. We used historical data from the summers of 1990 through 2007 for Montreal and from 2004 through 2009 for Paris to estimate daily years of life lost social disparities (DYLLD), summarizing social inequalities across groups. We used Generalized Linear Models to separately estimate relative risks (RR) for DYLLD in association with daily mean temperatures in both cities. We used 30 climate scenarios of daily mean temperature to estimate future temperature distributions (2021-2050). We performed random effect meta-analyses to assess the impact of climate change by climate scenario for each city and compared the impact of climate change for the two cities using a meta-regression analysis. We show that an increase in ambient temperature leads to an increase in social disparities in daily years of life lost. The impact of climate change on DYLLD attributable to temperature was of 2.06 (95% CI: 1.90, 2.25) in Montreal and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.61, 1.94) in Paris. The city explained a difference of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.49) on the impact of climate change. We propose a new analytical approach for estimating vulnerability in the relationship between heat and health. Our results suggest that in Paris and Montreal, health disparities related to heat impacts exist today and will increase in the future.

Using Scenario Development to Encourage Tourism Business Resilience in the Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chin, N.; Day, J.; Sydnor, S.; Cherkauer, K. A.

2015-12-01

Tourism is an economic sector anticipated to be greatly affected by climate change, but the potential impacts of climate change on tourism have rarely been examined in detail in existing research. Past research has shown, however, that the small and medium businesses that dominate the tourism sector could be greatly impacted by climate change. We have presented global climate and hydrologic model research results to pre-selected coastal tourism business owners in the Great Lakes region to determine the best methods for delivering user-friendly future climate scenarios, given that existing research suggests that climate change adaptive behaviors and resilience increase with information (message) clarity. Model output analyses completed for this work have focused on temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events due to their economic impact on tourism activities. We have also experimented with the development and use of infographics because of their ability to present information quickly and clearly. Initial findings of this work will be presented as well as lessons learned from stakeholder interactions. Two main results include that (1) extreme weather events may have more meaning to tourism business owners than general trends in climate and (2) long-term planning for climate is extremely difficult for tourism business owners because they operate on a much shorter planning timeline than those generally used for climate change analyses.

A hydrologic drying bias in water-resource impact analyses of anthropogenic climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, Paul; Dunne, Krista A.

2017-01-01

For water-resource planning, sensitivity of freshwater availability to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) often is analyzed with “offline” hydrologic models that use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (Ep) as inputs. Because Ep is not a climate-model output, an intermediary model of Ep must be introduced to connect the climate model to the hydrologic model. Several Ep methods are used. The suitability of each can be assessed by noting a credible Ep method for offline analyses should be able to reproduce climate models’ ACC-driven changes in actual evapotranspiration in regions and seasons of negligible water stress (Ew). We quantified this ability for seven commonly used Ep methods and for a simple proportionality with available energy (“energy-only” method). With the exception of the energy-only method, all methods tend to overestimate substantially the increase in Ep associated with ACC. In an offline hydrologic model, the Ep-change biases produce excessive increases in actual evapotranspiration (E), whether the system experiences water stress or not, and thence strong negative biases in runoff change, as compared to hydrologic fluxes in the driving climate models. The runoff biases are comparable in magnitude to the ACC-induced runoff changes themselves. These results suggest future hydrologic drying (wetting) trends likely are being systematically and substantially overestimated (underestimated) in many water-resource impact analyses.

Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.

2013-06-28

Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overviewmore » of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.« less

GIS-Mapping and Statistical Analyses to Identify Climate-Vulnerable Communities and Populations Exposed to Superfund Sites

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change-related cumulative health risks are expected to be disproportionately greater for overburdened communities, due to differential proximity and exposures to chemical sources and flood zones. Communities and populations vulnerable to climate change-associated impacts ...

Crop species diversity changes in the United States: 1978-2012

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Anecdotal accounts regarding reduced US cropping system diversity have raised concerns about negative impacts of increasingly homogeneous cropping systems. However, formal analyses to document such changes are lacking. Using US Agriculture Census data, which is collected on 5-year intervals, we qua...

Water as Rural Heritage: Reworking Modernity through Resource Conflict in Edwards County, Kansas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Solis, Patricia

2005-01-01

Conflicts over changing uses of natural resources are familiar within communities of the Western US and are usually resolved through legal processes. This paper analyzes resource conflict through juxtaposing impact analyses often used in their juridical resolution with discourse analyses of affected rural communities. The purchase of property by a…

Adaptation to Externally Driven Change: The Impact of Political Change on Job Satisfaction in the Public Sector

PubMed Central

Tabvuma, Vurain; Bui, Hong T M; Homberg, Fabian

2014-01-01

This article uses a quasi-natural experiment to investigate the adaptation of job satisfaction to externally driven political change in the public sector. This is important because democratic government bureaucracies often experience changes in leadership after elections. The analyses are based on data drawn from a large longitudinal data set, the British Household Panel Survey. Findings indicate that the impact of political elections is largely weak and temporary and is only present for men. For women, the internal processes of the organization tend to be more important. These findings suggest that changes in political leadership may not be associated with fundamental changes in policy. PMID:25598554

Single-case synthesis tools II: Comparing quantitative outcome measures.

PubMed

Zimmerman, Kathleen N; Pustejovsky, James E; Ledford, Jennifer R; Barton, Erin E; Severini, Katherine E; Lloyd, Blair P

2018-03-07

Varying methods for evaluating the outcomes of single case research designs (SCD) are currently used in reviews and meta-analyses of interventions. Quantitative effect size measures are often presented alongside visual analysis conclusions. Six measures across two classes-overlap measures (percentage non-overlapping data, improvement rate difference, and Tau) and parametric within-case effect sizes (standardized mean difference and log response ratio [increasing and decreasing])-were compared to determine if choice of synthesis method within and across classes impacts conclusions regarding effectiveness. The effectiveness of sensory-based interventions (SBI), a commonly used class of treatments for young children, was evaluated. Separately from evaluations of rigor and quality, authors evaluated behavior change between baseline and SBI conditions. SBI were unlikely to result in positive behavior change across all measures except IRD. However, subgroup analyses resulted in variable conclusions, indicating that the choice of measures for SCD meta-analyses can impact conclusions. Suggestions for using the log response ratio in SCD meta-analyses and considerations for understanding variability in SCD meta-analysis conclusions are discussed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost-benefit assessment of climate policies.

PubMed

Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L; Lenton, Timothy M; Lontzek, Thomas S; Narita, Daiju

2015-04-14

Most current cost-benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost-benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost-benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost-benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change.

Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost−benefit assessment of climate policies

PubMed Central

Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Lontzek, Thomas S.; Narita, Daiju

2015-01-01

Most current cost−benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost−benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost−benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost−benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change. PMID:25825719

Analysing policy interventions to prohibit over-the-counter antibiotic sales in four Latin American countries.

PubMed

Wirtz, V J; Herrera-Patino, J J; Santa-Ana-Tellez, Y; Dreser, A; Elseviers, M; Vander Stichele, R H

2013-06-01

To describe and evaluate policies implemented in Chile, Colombia, Venezuela and Mexico (1995-2009) to prohibit antibiotic OTC sales and explore limitations in available data. We searched and analysed legislation, grey literature and peer-reviewed publications on regulatory interventions and implementation strategies to enforce prohibition of OTC antibiotic sales. We also assessed the impact using private sector retail sales data of antibiotics studying changes in level and consumption trends before and after the policy change using segmented time series analysis. Finally, we assessed the completeness and data quality through an established checklist to test the suitability of the data for analysis of the interventions. Whereas Chile implemented a comprehensive package of interventions to accompany regulation changes, Colombia's reform was limited to the capital district and Venezuela's limited to only some antibiotics and without awareness campaigns. In Mexico, no enforcement was enacted. The data showed a differential effect of the intervention among the countries studied with a significant change in level of consumption in Chile (-5.56 DID) and in Colombia (-1.00DID). In Venezuela and Mexico, no significant change in level and slope was found. Changes in population coverage were identified as principal limitations of using sales data for evaluating the reform impact. Retail sales data can be useful when assessing policy impact but should be supplemented by other data sources such as public sector sales and prescription data. Implementing regulatory enforcement has shown some impact, but a sustainable, concerted approach will be needed to address OTC sales in the future. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Commentary: Demonstrating Cost-Effectiveness in Pediatric Psychology

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objective Changes in the health care system and payment plans will likely require pediatric psychologists to illustrate the impact of their services. Cost-effectiveness analyses are one method of demonstrating the potential economic benefits of our services but are rarely used by pediatric psychologists. Method A hypothetical cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted, comparing the costs and outcomes between a behavioral adherence intervention and no intervention for youth with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Results Results illustrate how pediatric psychologists can use cost-effectiveness analyses to demonstrate the economic impact of their work. Conclusions Efforts to conduct economic analyses could allow pediatric psychologists to advocate for their services. Implications and future directions are discussed. PMID:24752732

Identification of Extreme Events Under Climate Change Conditions Over Europe and The Northwest-atlantic Region: Spatial Patterns and Time Series Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G.; Ulbrich, U.; Speth, P.

In the context of climate change and the resulting possible impacts on socio-economic conditions for human activities it seems that due to a changed occurrence of extreme events more severe consequences have to be expected than from changes in the mean climate. These extreme events like floods, excessive heats and droughts or windstorms possess impacts on human social and economic life in different categories such as forestry, agriculture, energy use, tourism and the reinsurance business. Reinsurances are affected by nearly 70% of all insured damages over Europe in the case of wind- storms. Especially the December 1999 French windstorms caused damages about 10 billion. A new EU-founded project (MICE = Modelling the Impact of Climate Ex- tremes) will focus on these impacts caused by changed occurrences of extreme events over Europe. Based upon the output of general circulation models as well as regional climate models, investigations are carried out with regard to time series characteristics as well as the spatial patterns of extremes under climate changed conditions. After the definition of specific thresholds for climate extremes, in this talk we will focus on the results of the analysis for the different data sets (HadCM3 and CGCMII GCM's and RCM's, re-analyses, observations) with regard to windstorm events. At first the results of model outputs are validated against re-analyses and observations. Especially a comparison of the stormtrack (2.5 to 8 day bandpass filtered 500 hPa geopotential height), cyclone track, cyclone frequency and intensity is presented. Highly relevant to damages is the extreme wind near the ground level, so the 10 m wind speed will be investigated additionally. of special interest to possible impacts is the changed spatial occurrence of windspeed maxima under 2xCO2-induced climate change.

Ecological networks are more sensitive to plant than to animal extinction under climate change

PubMed Central

Schleuning, Matthias; Fründ, Jochen; Schweiger, Oliver; Welk, Erik; Albrecht, Jörg; Albrecht, Matthias; Beil, Marion; Benadi, Gita; Blüthgen, Nico; Bruelheide, Helge; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Dehling, D. Matthias; Dormann, Carsten F.; Exeler, Nina; Farwig, Nina; Harpke, Alexander; Hickler, Thomas; Kratochwil, Anselm; Kuhlmann, Michael; Kühn, Ingolf; Michez, Denis; Mudri-Stojnić, Sonja; Plein, Michaela; Rasmont, Pierre; Schwabe, Angelika; Settele, Josef; Vujić, Ante; Weiner, Christiane N.; Wiemers, Martin; Hof, Christian

2016-01-01

Impacts of climate change on individual species are increasingly well documented, but we lack understanding of how these effects propagate through ecological communities. Here we combine species distribution models with ecological network analyses to test potential impacts of climate change on >700 plant and animal species in pollination and seed-dispersal networks from central Europe. We discover that animal species that interact with a low diversity of plant species have narrow climatic niches and are most vulnerable to climate change. In contrast, biotic specialization of plants is not related to climatic niche breadth and vulnerability. A simulation model incorporating different scenarios of species coextinction and capacities for partner switches shows that projected plant extinctions under climate change are more likely to trigger animal coextinctions than vice versa. This result demonstrates that impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be amplified via extinction cascades from plants to animals in ecological networks. PMID:28008919

Ecological networks are more sensitive to plant than to animal extinction under climate change.

PubMed

Schleuning, Matthias; Fründ, Jochen; Schweiger, Oliver; Welk, Erik; Albrecht, Jörg; Albrecht, Matthias; Beil, Marion; Benadi, Gita; Blüthgen, Nico; Bruelheide, Helge; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Dehling, D Matthias; Dormann, Carsten F; Exeler, Nina; Farwig, Nina; Harpke, Alexander; Hickler, Thomas; Kratochwil, Anselm; Kuhlmann, Michael; Kühn, Ingolf; Michez, Denis; Mudri-Stojnić, Sonja; Plein, Michaela; Rasmont, Pierre; Schwabe, Angelika; Settele, Josef; Vujić, Ante; Weiner, Christiane N; Wiemers, Martin; Hof, Christian

2016-12-23

Impacts of climate change on individual species are increasingly well documented, but we lack understanding of how these effects propagate through ecological communities. Here we combine species distribution models with ecological network analyses to test potential impacts of climate change on >700 plant and animal species in pollination and seed-dispersal networks from central Europe. We discover that animal species that interact with a low diversity of plant species have narrow climatic niches and are most vulnerable to climate change. In contrast, biotic specialization of plants is not related to climatic niche breadth and vulnerability. A simulation model incorporating different scenarios of species coextinction and capacities for partner switches shows that projected plant extinctions under climate change are more likely to trigger animal coextinctions than vice versa. This result demonstrates that impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be amplified via extinction cascades from plants to animals in ecological networks.

Ecosystem Services Connect Environmental Change to Human Health Outcomes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bayles, Brett R.; Brauman, Kate A.; Adkins, Joshua N.

Global environmental change, driven in large part by human activities, profoundly impacts the structure and functioning of Earth’s ecosystems (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). We are beginning to push beyond planetary boundaries (Steffan et al. 2015), and the consequences for human health remain largely unknown (Myers et al. 2013). Growing evidence suggests that ecological transformations can dramatically affect human health in ways that are both obvious and obscure (Myers and Patz 2009; Myers et al. 2013). The framework of ecosystem services, designed to evaluate the benefits that people derive from ecosystem products and processes, provides a compelling framework for integrating themore » many factors that influence the human health response to global change, as well as for integrating health impacts into broader analyses of the impacts of this change« less

Assessment of the Impact of Scheduled Postmarketing Safety Summary Analyses on Regulatory Actions

PubMed Central

Sekine, S; Pinnow, EE; Wu, E; Kurtzig, R; Hall, M; Dal Pan, GJ

2016-01-01

In addition to standard postmarketing drug safety monitoring, Section 915 of the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 (FDAAA) requires the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to conduct a summary analysis of adverse event reports to identify risks of a drug or biologic product 18 months after product approval, or after 10,000 patients have used the product, whichever is later. We assessed the extent to which these analyses identified new safety signals and resultant safety-related label changes. Among 458 newly approved products, 300 were the subjects of a scheduled analysis; a new safety signal that resulted in a safety-related label change was found for 11 of these products. Less than 2% of 713 safety-related label changes were based on the scheduled analyses. Our study suggests that the safety summary analyses provide only marginal value over other pharmacovigilance activities. PMID:26853718

Generating High Resolution Climate Scenarios Through Regional Climate Modelling Over Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndhlovu, G. Z.; Woyessa, Y. E.; Vijayaraghavan, S.

2017-12-01

limate change has impacted the global environment and the Continent of Africa, especially Southern Africa, regarded as one of the most vulnerable regions in Africa, has not been spared from these impacts. Global Climate Models (GCMs) with coarse horizontal resolutions of 150-300 km do not provide sufficient details at the local basin scale due to mismatch between the size of river basins and the grid cell of the GCM. This makes it difficult to apply the outputs of GCMs directly to impact studies such as hydrological modelling. This necessitates the use of regional climate modelling at high resolutions that provide detailed information at regional and local scales to study both climate change and its impacts. To this end, an experiment was set up and conducted with PRECIS, a regional climate model, to generate climate scenarios at a high resolution of 25km for the local region in Zambezi River basin of Southern Africa. The major input data used included lateral and surface boundary conditions based on the GCMs. The data is processed, analysed and compared with CORDEX climate change project data generated for Africa. This paper, highlights the major differences of the climate scenarios generated by PRECIS Model and CORDEX Project for Africa and further gives recommendations for further research on generation of climate scenarios. The climatic variables such as precipitation and temperatures have been analysed for flood and droughts in the region. The paper also describes the setting up and running of an experiment using a high-resolution PRECIS model. In addition, a description has been made in running the model and generating the output variables on a sub basin scale. Regional climate modelling which provides information on climate change impact may lead to enhanced understanding of adaptive water resources management. Understanding the regional climate modelling results on sub basin scale is the first step in analysing complex hydrological processes and a basis for designing of adaptation and mitigation strategies in the region. Key words: Climate change, regional climate modelling, hydrological processes, extremes, scenarios [1] Corresponding author: Email:gndhlovu@cut.ac.za Tel:+27 (0) 51 507 3072

Application of Natural Mineral Additives in Construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linek, Malgorzata; Nita, Piotr; Wolka, Paweł; Zebrowski, Wojciech

2017-12-01

The article concerns the idea of using selected mineral additives in the pavement quality concrete composition. The basis of the research paper was the modification of cement concrete intended for airfield pavements. The application of the additives: metakaolonite and natural zeolite was suggested. Analyses included the assessment of basic physical properties of modifiers. Screening analysis, assessment of micro structure and chemical microanalysis were conducted in case of these materials. The influence of the applied additives on the change of concrete mix parameters was also presented. The impact of zeolite and metakaolinite on the mix density, oxygen content and consistency class was analysed. The influence of modifiers on physical and mechanical changes of the hardened cement concrete was discussed (concrete density, compressive strength and bending strength during fracturing) in diversified research periods. The impact of the applied additives on the changes of internal structure of cement concrete was discussed. Observation of concrete micro structure was conducted using the scanning electron microscope. According to the obtained lab test results, parameters of the applied modifiers and their influence on changes of internal structure of cement concrete are reflected in the increase of mechanical properties of pavement quality concrete. The increase of compressive and bending strength in case of all analysed research periods was proved.

School Finance Court Cases and Disparate Racial Impact: The Contribution of Statistical Analysis in New York

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stiefel, Leanna; Schwartz, Amy Ellen; Berne, Robert; Chellman, Colin C.

2005-01-01

Although analyses of state school finance systems rarely focus on the distribution of funds to students of different races, the advent of racial discrimination as an issue in school finance court cases may change that situation. In this article, we describe the background, analyses, and results of plaintiffs' testimony regarding racial…

Sink or Swim: Adapting to the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleick, P. H.

2014-12-01

Climate changes lead to a wide range of societal and environmental impacts; indeed, strong evidence has accrued that such impacts are already occurring, as summarized by the newest National Climate Assessment and other analyses. Among the most important will be alterations in the hydrologic cycle, changes in water supply and demand, and impacts on existing water-related infrastructure. Because of the complexity of our water systems, adaptation responses will be equally complex. This problem has made it difficult for water managers and planners to develop and implement adaptation strategies. This talk will address three ways to think about water-related adaptation approaches to climate change: (1) strategies that are already being implemented to address population and economic changes without climate change; (2) whether these first-line strategies are appropriate for additional impacts that might result from climatic changes; and (3) new approaches that might be necessary for new, non-linear, or threshold impacts. An effort will also be made to differentiate between adaptation strategies that influence the hydrologic cycle directly (e.g., cloud seeding), those that influence supply management (e.g., construction of additional reservoirs or water-distribution systems), and those that affect water demand (e.g., removal of outdoor landscaping, installation of efficient irrigation systems).

Modelling the impact of Global Change on the hydrological system of the Aral Sea basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aus der Beek, T.; Voß, F.; Flörke, M.

During the last decades the Aral Sea basin has suffered an enormous depletion of water resources within its lakes and rivers with consequences for society, economy, and nature. Within this model study, Global Change impacts on the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, as well as on the Aral Sea itself, are being analysed for the period 1958-2002. In a first step, a multi-annual data base on crop specific irrigated areas has been set-up, which has then been integrated in the hydrology and water use model WaterGAP3. As a second step, anthropogenic water abstractions have been calculated, which were then assimilated in the simulation of river runoff of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. The last step includes the simulation of the water balance of the Aral Sea, by taking into account modelled river inflow. Within WaterGAP3, the water use module has been switched on and off to separate the impacts of Climate and Global Change (i.e. water abstractions). Irrigation water abstractions are very well represented by WaterGAP3 and lie within the range of reported values. Modelled river discharge also shows a good fit to observed data, whereas phases are in sync but volumes are slightly overestimated. Simulated volumes of the Aral Sea itself are well reflected by the model, though results for the period 1990-2002 are too high. In this study, the Climate Change impacts are much smaller (14%) than the water use impacts (86%) on the shrinkage of the Aral Sea. Finally, an outlook on potential scenario model studies is given, which could analyse the different strategies of mitigation and adaptation of Global Change in the Aral Sea basin.

49 CFR 1180.8 - Operational data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... interchange points, using the corporate or political subdivision name of the points shown as well as the... crossings as a result of merger-related changes in operations or increases in rail traffic. (b) For major... plan changes, based on the impact analyses, that will result from the transaction, and their...

Impact of immersion oils and mounting media on the confocal imaging of dendritic spines

PubMed Central

Peterson, Brittni M.; Mermelstein, Paul G.; Meisel, Robert L.

2015-01-01

Background Structural plasticity, such as changes in dendritic spine morphology and density, reflect changes in synaptic connectivity and circuitry. Procedural variables used in different methods for labeling dendritic spines have been quantitatively evaluated for their impact on the ability to resolve individual spines in confocal microscopic analyses. In contrast, there have been discussions, though no quantitative analyses, of the potential effects of choosing specific mounting media and immersion oils on dendritic spine resolution. New Method Here we provide quantitative data measuring the impact of these variables on resolving dendritic spines in 3D confocal analyses. Medium spiny neurons from the rat striatum and nucleus accumbens are used as examples. Results Both choice of mounting media and immersion oil affected the visualization of dendritic spines, with choosing the appropriate immersion oil as being more imperative. These biologic data are supported by quantitative measures of the 3D diffraction pattern (i.e. point spread function) of a point source of light under the same mounting medium and immersion oil combinations. Comparison with Existing Method Although not a new method, this manuscript provides quantitative data demonstrating that different mounting media and immersion oils can impact the ability to resolve dendritic spines. These findings highlight the importance of reporting which mounting medium and immersion oil are used in preparations for confocal analyses, especially when comparing published results from different laboratories. Conclusion Collectively, these data suggest that choosing the appropriate immersion oil and mounting media is critical for obtaining the best resolution, and consequently more accurate measures of dendritic spine densities. PMID:25601477

Impact of immersion oils and mounting media on the confocal imaging of dendritic spines.

PubMed

Peterson, Brittni M; Mermelstein, Paul G; Meisel, Robert L

2015-03-15

Structural plasticity, such as changes in dendritic spine morphology and density, reflect changes in synaptic connectivity and circuitry. Procedural variables used in different methods for labeling dendritic spines have been quantitatively evaluated for their impact on the ability to resolve individual spines in confocal microscopic analyses. In contrast, there have been discussions, though no quantitative analyses, of the potential effects of choosing specific mounting media and immersion oils on dendritic spine resolution. Here we provide quantitative data measuring the impact of these variables on resolving dendritic spines in 3D confocal analyses. Medium spiny neurons from the rat striatum and nucleus accumbens are used as examples. Both choice of mounting media and immersion oil affected the visualization of dendritic spines, with choosing the appropriate immersion oil as being more imperative. These biologic data are supported by quantitative measures of the 3D diffraction pattern (i.e. point spread function) of a point source of light under the same mounting medium and immersion oil combinations. Although not a new method, this manuscript provides quantitative data demonstrating that different mounting media and immersion oils can impact the ability to resolve dendritic spines. These findings highlight the importance of reporting which mounting medium and immersion oil are used in preparations for confocal analyses, especially when comparing published results from different laboratories. Collectively, these data suggest that choosing the appropriate immersion oil and mounting media is critical for obtaining the best resolution, and consequently more accurate measures of dendritic spine densities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hospital Standardized Mortality Ratios: Sensitivity Analyses on the Impact of Coding

PubMed Central

Bottle, Alex; Jarman, Brian; Aylin, Paul

2011-01-01

Introduction Hospital standardized mortality ratios (HSMRs) are derived from administrative databases and cover 80 percent of in-hospital deaths with adjustment for available case mix variables. They have been criticized for being sensitive to issues such as clinical coding but on the basis of limited quantitative evidence. Methods In a set of sensitivity analyses, we compared regular HSMRs with HSMRs resulting from a variety of changes, such as a patient-based measure, not adjusting for comorbidity, not adjusting for palliative care, excluding unplanned zero-day stays ending in live discharge, and using more or fewer diagnoses. Results Overall, regular and variant HSMRs were highly correlated (ρ > 0.8), but differences of up to 10 points were common. Two hospitals were particularly affected when palliative care was excluded from the risk models. Excluding unplanned stays ending in same-day live discharge had the least impact despite their high frequency. The largest impacts were seen when capturing postdischarge deaths and using just five high-mortality diagnosis groups. Conclusions HSMRs in most hospitals changed by only small amounts from the various adjustment methods tried here, though small-to-medium changes were not uncommon. However, the position relative to funnel plot control limits could move in a significant minority even with modest changes in the HSMR. PMID:21790587

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haase, Dagmar, E-mail: dagmar.haase@ufz.d

The amount of land consumption required for housing and transport severely conflicts with both the necessity and the legal obligation to maintain the ecological potential afforded by open spaces to meet the needs of current and future generations with regards to the protection of resources and climate change. Owing to an increasing intensity of soil use, soil conditions appear to have deteriorated in most city regions around the world, namely their filter and runoff regulating functions are impaired by land surfacing. As such soil functions depend on the soil's biophysical properties and the degree of imperviousness, the impact on themore » water balance caused by urban growth varies considerably. In response to the demand for sustainably secure urban water resources, it needs to be assessed exactly how land surfacing affects the functions concerned. Analysing and evaluating urban land use change on the long-term water balance should improve our understanding of the impact of urbanisation on the water household. Therefore, this paper analyses the impact of urban land use change and land surfacing on the long-term urban water balance over a 130-year trajectory by using simple model approaches that are based on data available to the public. The test site is the city of Leipzig. In particular, attention is to be paid to estimating changes of evapotranspiration, direct runoff and groundwater recharge.« less

A global economic assessment of city policies to reduce climate change impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estrada, Francisco; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; Tol, Richard S. J.

2017-06-01

Climate change impacts can be especially large in cities. Several large cities are taking climate change into account in long-term strategies, for which it is important to have information on the costs and benefits of adaptation. Studies on climate change impacts in cities mostly focus on a limited set of countries and risks, for example sea-level rise, health and water resources. Most of these studies are qualitative, except for the costs of sea-level rise in cities. These impact estimates do not take into account that large cities will experience additional warming due to the urban heat island effect, that is, the change of local climate patterns caused by urbanization. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of the economic costs of the joint impacts of local and global climate change for all main cities around the world. Cost-benefit analyses are presented of urban heat island mitigation options, including green and cool roofs and cool pavements. It is shown that local actions can be a climate risk-reduction instrument. Furthermore, limiting the urban heat island through city adaptation plans can significantly amplify the benefits of international mitigation efforts.

Evaluation of the impact of intervention programmes on education organisations: Application to a Quality Management System.

PubMed

Fernández-Díaz, Mª Jose; Rodríguez-Mantilla, Jesús Miguel; Jover-Olmeda, Gonzalo

2017-08-01

This paper analyses the importance of evaluating the various components of the programmes or actions carried out by education organisations. It highlights the need to assess the impact of the intervention on the organisation and consider how changes are consolidated over time in interaction with the context. We propose an impact evaluation model and as an example have chosen the implementation of Quality Management Systems in schools. The paper analyses the results obtained in 40 schools in three regions (Spanish Autonomous Communities) with varying levels of implementation. The results show overall impact on these education centres as the teachers and management teams of the centres perceive it. This impact is more evident in some of the dimensions considered in the study than in others. The results also confirm the differences between regional contexts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring the economic impact of climate change on major South African field crops: a Ricardian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gbetibouo, G. A.; Hassan, R. M.

2005-07-01

This study employed a Ricardian model to measure the impact of climate change on South Africa's field crops and analysed potential future impacts of further changes in the climate. A regression of farm net revenue on climate, soil and other socio-economic variables was conducted to capture farmer-adapted responses to climate variations. The analysis was based on agricultural data for seven field crops (maize, wheat, sorghum, sugarcane, groundnut, sunflower and soybean), climate and edaphic data across 300 districts in South Africa. Results indicate that production of field crops was sensitive to marginal changes in temperature as compared to changes in precipitation. Temperature rise positively affects net revenue whereas the effect of reduction in rainfall is negative. The study also highlights the importance of season and location in dealing with climate change showing that the spatial distribution of climate change impact and consequently needed adaptations will not be uniform across the different agro-ecological regions of South Africa. Results of simulations of climate change scenarios indicate many impacts that would induce (or require) very distinct shifts in farming practices and patterns in different regions. Those include major shifts in crop calendars and growing seasons, switching between crops to the possibility of complete disappearance of some field crops from some region.

Evaluating the Impact of an Academic Teacher Development Program: Practical Realities of an Evidence-Based Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rathbun, Gail A.; Leatherman, Jane; Jensen, Rebecca

2017-01-01

This study aimed to assess the impact of an entire academic teacher development programme at a Midwestern masters comprehensive university in the United States over a period of five years by examining changes in teaching and student outcomes of nine randomly selected programme participants. Researchers analysed syllabi, course evaluations, grade…

Scientific Knowledge and Attitude Change: The Impact of a Citizen Science Project. Research Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brossard, Dominique; Lewenstein, Bruce; Bonney, Rick

2005-01-01

This paper discusses the evaluation of an informal science education project, The Birdhouse Network (TBN) of the Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology. The Elaboration Likelihood Model and the theory of Experiential Education were used as frameworks to analyse the impact of TBN on participants' attitudes toward science and the environment, on their…

Changing Pedagogical Practice in Kenyan Primary Schools: The Impact of School-Based Training

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hardman, Frank; Abd-Kadir, Jan; Agg, Catherine; Migwi, James; Ndambuku, Jacinta; Smith, Fay

2009-01-01

This study reports on an investigation into the impact of a national, school-based teacher development programme on learning and teaching in Kenyan primary schools. Building on a national baseline study (n=102), 144 video-recorded lessons, covering the teaching of English, maths and science at Standards 3 and 6, were analysed to investigate…

Quantitative Analyses in a Multivariate Study of Language Attrition: The Impact of Extralinguistic Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmid, Monika S.; Dusseldorp, Elise

2010-01-01

Most linguistic processes--acquisition, change, deterioration--take place in and are determined by a complex and multifactorial web of language internal and language external influences. This implies that the impact of each individual factor can only be determined on the basis of a careful consideration of its interplay with all other factors. The…

The Impact of Funding Policies on Higher Education in Jamaica

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nkrumah-Young, Kofi K.; Huisman, Jeroen; Powell, Philip

2008-01-01

This paper analyses the changes in the higher education funding policies and resource allocation models of the Jamaican government in the period 1962-2003. Throughout these four decades, four different systems were in force. This paper focuses particularly on the arguments for the funding policies and models and the impact of the models on the…

Methodological issues in assessing changes in costs pre- and post-medication switch: a schizophrenia study example.

PubMed

Faries, Douglas E; Nyhuis, Allen W; Ascher-Svanum, Haya

2009-05-27

Schizophrenia is a severe, chronic, and costly illness that adversely impacts patients' lives and health care payer budgets. Cost comparisons of treatment regimens are, therefore, important to health care payers and researchers. Pre-Post analyses ("mirror-image"), where outcomes prior to a medication switch are compared to outcomes post-switch, are commonly used in such research. However, medication changes often occur during a costly crisis event. Patients may relapse, be hospitalized, have a medication change, and then spend a period of time with intense use of costly resources (post-medication switch). While many advantages and disadvantages of Pre-Post methodology have been discussed, issues regarding the attributability of costs incurred around the time of medication switching have not been fully investigated. Medical resource use data, including medications and acute-care services (hospitalizations, partial hospitalizations, emergency department) were collected for patients with schizophrenia who switched antipsychotics (n = 105) during a 1-year randomized, naturalistic, antipsychotic cost-effectiveness schizophrenia trial. Within-patient changes in total costs per day were computed during the pre- and post-medication change periods. In addition to the standard Pre-Post analysis comparing costs pre- and post-medication change, we investigated the sensitivity of results to varying assumptions regarding the attributability of acute care service costs occurring just after a medication switch that were likely due to initial medication failure. Fifty-six percent of all costs incurred during the first week on the newly initiated antipsychotic were likely due to treatment failure with the previous antipsychotic. Standard analyses suggested an average increase in cost-per-day for each patient of $2.40 after switching medications. However, sensitivity analyses removing costs incurred post-switch that were potentially due to the failure of the initial medication suggested decreases in costs in the range of $4.77 to $9.69 per day post-switch. Pre-Post cost analyses are sensitive to the approach used to handle acute-service costs occurring just after a medication change. Given the importance of quality economic research on the cost of switching treatments, thorough sensitivity analyses should be performed to identify the impact of crisis events around the time of medication change.

Climate change and drought effects on rural income distribution in the Mediterranean: a case study for Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga, Sonia; Suárez, Cristina

2016-06-01

This paper examines the effects of climate change and drought on agricultural incomes in Spanish rural areas. Present research has focused on the effects of these extreme climatological events through response functions, considering effects on crop productivity and average incomes. Among the impacts of droughts, we focused on potential effects on income distribution. The study of the effects on abnormally dry periods is therefore needed in order to perform an analysis of diverse social aspects in the long term. We estimate crop production functions for a range of Mediterranean crops in Spain and we use a measure of the decomposition of inequality to estimate the impact of climate change and drought on yield disparities. Certain adaptation measures may require a better understanding of risks by the public to achieve general acceptance. We provide empirical estimations for the marginal effects of the two impacts considered: farms' average income and income distribution. Our estimates consider crop production response to both biophysical and socio-economic aspects to analyse long-term implications on competitiveness and disparities. As for the results, we find disparities in the adaptation priorities depending on the crop and the region analysed.

Oral Presentations in Higher Education: A Comparison of the Impact of Peer and Teacher Feedback

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murillo-Zamorano, Luis R.; Montanero, Manuel

2018-01-01

In this paper the authors analyse the competency of a sample of economics and business students in orally presenting academic content, as well as the changes that occurred after receiving feedback. The students' presentations were videotaped, and a total of 96 were analysed at three stages: pre-test, post-test and follow-up. The participants were…

Climate change impacts on crop yield in the Euro-Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toreti, Andrea; Ceglar, Andrej; Dentener, Frank; Niemeyer, Stefan; Dosio, Alessandro; Fumagalli, Davide

2017-04-01

Agriculture is strongly influenced by climate variability, climate extremes and climate changes. Recent studies on past decades have identified and analysed the effects of climate variability and extremes on crop yields in the Euro-Mediterranean region. As these effects could be amplified in a changing climate context, it is essential to analyse available climate projections and investigate the possible impacts on European agriculture in terms of crop yield. In this study, five model runs from the Euro-CORDEX initiative under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) have been used. Climate model data have been bias corrected and then used to feed a mechanistic crop growth model. The crop model has been run under different settings to better sample the intrinsic uncertainties. Among the main results, it is worth to report a weak but significant and spatially homogeneous increase in potential wheat yield at mid-century (under a CO2 fertilisation effect scenario). While more complex changes seem to characterise potential maize yield, with large areas in the region showing a weak-to-moderate decrease.

Impregnation with antimicrobials has an impact on degree of conversion and colour stability of acrylic liner.

PubMed

Salim, Nesreen; Satterthwaite, Julian; Rautemaa, Riina; Silikas, Nick

2012-01-01

This study investigated the impact of impregnation of a poly(ethyl methacrylate) /tetrahydrofurfuryl methacrylate (PEM/THFM) polymer with chlorhexidine or fluconazole on the degree of conversion (DC) and colour stability (ΔE). The DC of uncured (0 h) and cured (24 h) samples was analysed by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and colour stability was analysed colorimetrically. The DC percentage of the control samples was significantly greater than those containing chlorhexidine and fluconazole (p≤0.05). The control discs exhibited only slight colour change compared to the impregnated discs which showed marked colour change (p≤0.05). A strong negative correlation between the extent of colour change and the degree of conversion was detected (r=0.97). The DC and colour stability were influenced by the addition of chlorhexidine or fluconazole. However, the final values were comparable to other commonly used acrylic liners and within acceptable ranges. PEM/THFM can be considered as a biocompatible drug delivery system.

A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

2013-10-01

In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; M{ü}ller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

2012-11-01

In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a~narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalized patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilize a simplified relationships betweenΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society

PubMed Central

MIMURA, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society. PMID:23883609

Hydrologic climate change impacts in the Columbia River Basin and their sensitivity to methodological choices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chegwidden, O.; Nijssen, B.; Mao, Y.; Rupp, D. E.

2016-12-01

The Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the United States' Pacific Northwest (PNW) is highly regulated for hydropower generation, flood control, fish survival, irrigation and navigation. Historically it has had a hydrologic regime characterized by winter precipitation in the form of snow, followed by a spring peak in streamflow from snowmelt. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to significantly alter this regime, causing changes to streamflow timing and volume. While numerous hydrologic studies have been conducted across the CRB, the impact of methodological choices in hydrologic modeling has not been as heavily investigated. To better understand their impact on the spread in modeled projections of hydrological change, we ran simulations involving permutations of a variety of methodological choices. We used outputs from ten global climate models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report. After downscaling the GCM output using three different techniques we forced the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), both implemented at 1/16th degree ( 5 km) for the period 1950-2099. For the VIC model, we used three independently-derived parameter sets. We will show results from the range of simulations, both in the form of basin-wide spatial analyses of hydrologic variables and through analyses of changes in streamflow at selected sites throughout the CRB. We will then discuss the differences in sensitivities to climate change seen among the projections, paying particular attention to differences in projections from the hydrologic models and different parameter sets.

Is enough attention given to climate change in health service planning? An Australian perspective.

PubMed

Burton, Anthony J; Bambrick, Hilary J; Friel, Sharon

2014-01-01

Within an Australian context, the medium to long-term health impacts of climate change are likely to be wide, varied and amplify many existing disorders and health inequities. How the health system responds to these challenges will be best considered in the context of existing health facilities and services. This paper provides a snapshot of the understanding that Australian health planners have of the potential health impacts of climate change. The first author interviewed (n=16) health service planners from five Australian states and territories using an interpretivist paradigm. All interviews were digitally recorded, key components transcribed and thematically analysed. Results indicate that the majority of participants were aware of climate change but not of its potential health impacts. Despite this, most planners were of the opinion that they would need to plan for the health impacts of climate change on the community. With the best available evidence pointing towards there being significant health impacts as a result of climate change, now is the time to undertake proactive service planning that address market failures within the health system. If considered planning is not undertaken then Australian health system can only deal with climate change in an expensive ad hoc, crisis management manner. Without meeting the challenges of climate change to the health system head on, Australia will remain unprepared for the health impacts of climate change with negative consequences for the health of the Australian population.

The link between land use and flood risk assessment in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sörensen, Johanna; Kalantari, Zahra

2017-04-01

Densification of urban areas rises a concern for increased pluvial flooding. Flood risk in urban areas might rise under impact of land use changes. Urbanisation involves conversion of natural areas to impermeable areas giving lower infiltration rates and increased runoff. When high-intense rainfall excess the capacity of the drainage system in a city, high runoff causes pluvial flooding in low-laying areas. In the present study, a long time series (20 years) of geo-referenced flood claims from property owners has been collected and analysed in detail to assess flood risk under impact of land use changes in urban areas. The flood claim data come from property owners with flood insurance that covers property loss from overland flooding, groundwater intrusion through basement walls, as well as flooding from the drainage system, and are used as a proxy for flood severity. The spatial relationships between land use change and flood occurrences in different urban areas were analysed. Special emphasis were put on how nature-based solutions and blue-green infrastructure relates to flood risk. The relationships defined by a statistical method explaining the tendencies where the land use change contributes to flood risk changes and others engaged factors.

Population-level impact of Zimbabwe's National Behavioural Change Programme.

PubMed

Buzdugan, Raluca; Benedikt, Clemens; Langhaug, Lisa; Copas, Andrew; Mundida, Oscar; Mugurungi, Owen; Watadzaushe, Constancia; Dirawo, Jeffrey; Tambashe, Basile O; Chidiya, Samson; Woelk, Godfrey; Cowan, Frances M

2014-12-15

To assess the impact of Zimbabwe's National Behavioural Change Programme (NBCP) on biological and behavioral outcomes. Representative household biobehavioral surveys of 18- to 44-year-olds were conducted in randomly selected enumeration areas in 2007 and 2011 to 2012. We examined program impact on HIV prevalence among young women, nonregular partnerships, condom use with nonregular partners, and HIV testing, distinguishing between highly exposed and low-exposed communities and individuals. We conducted (1) difference-in-differences analyses with communities as unit of analysis and (2) analyses of key outcomes by individual-level program exposure. Four thousand seven hundred seventy-six people were recruited in 2007 and 10,059 in 2011 to 2012. We found high exposure to NBCP in 2011. Prevalence of HIV and reported risky behaviors declined between 2007 and 2011. Community-level analyses showed a smaller decline in HIV prevalence among young women in highly exposed areas (11.0%-10.1%) than low-exposed areas (16.9%-10.3%, P = 0.078). Among young men, uptake of nonregular partners declined more in highly exposed areas (25%-16.8%) than low-exposed areas (21.9%-20.7%, P = 0.055) and HIV testing increased (27.2%-46.1% vs. 31.0%-34.4%, P = 0.004). Individual-level analyses showed higher reported condom use with nonregular partners among highly exposed young women (53% vs. 21% of unexposed counterparts, P = 0.037). We conducted the first impact evaluation of a NBCP and found positive effects of program exposure on key behaviors among certain gender and age groups. HIV prevalence among young women declined but could not be attributed to program exposure. These findings suggest substantial program effects regarding demand creation and justify program expansion.

Climate Change Impact Assessment of Hydro-Climate in Southern Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydroclimate of the coastal region in the south of Peninsular Malaysia in the 21st century was assessed by means of a regional climate model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution Global Climate Models' future projections covering four emission scenarios based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) datasets were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. The analyses were made in terms of rainfall, air temperature, evapotranporation, and soil water storage.

Climate Action Benefits: Agriculture and Forestry

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides background on the relationship between agriculture, forestry, and climate change and describes what the CIRA Agriculture and Forestry analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Crop and Forest Yields and Market Impacts.

Guide to reporting highway statistics

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1983-11-01

Previous analyses conducted by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) are used to project year-by-year economical impacts of changes in highway performance out to 1995. In the principal scenario examined, highway performance is allowed to deterior...

Exploring Posttraumatic Growth in Children Impacted by Hurricane Katrina: Correlates of the Phenomenon and Developmental Considerations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kilmer, Ryan P.; Gil-Rivas, Virginia

2010-01-01

This study explored posttraumatic growth (PTG), positive change resulting from struggling with trauma, among 7- to 10-year-olds impacted by Hurricane Katrina. Analyses focused on child self-system functioning and cognitive processes, and the caregiving context, in predicting PTG at 2 time points (Time 1n = 66, Time 2n = 51). Findings suggest that…

Institutional Change and Its Impact on the Poor and Excluded: The Indian Decentralisation Experience. OECD Development Centre Working Paper No. 242

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Narayana, D.

2005-01-01

This study analyses the impact of democratic decentralisation on the chances of socially excluded groups to participate in newly created local governance institutions--Panchayati Raj Institutions--in three Indian states. This institutional reform included a quota for the disadvantaged--women and lower castes--to ensure their effective…

Impact of 68Ga-PSMA PET on the Management of Patients with Prostate Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Han, Sangwon; Woo, Sungmin; Kim, Yeon Joo; Suh, Chong Hyun

2018-04-18

68 Gallium prostate-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography ( 68 Ga-PSMA PET) is an emerging imaging modality for assessment of prostate cancer. Recent studies show promising results regarding its ability to detect recurrent or metastatic prostate cancer superior to that of conventional imaging modalities. However, the impact of 68 Ga-PSMA PET on management of patients with prostate cancer has not been well established. To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the impact of 68 Ga-PSMA PET on management of patients with prostate cancer. Pubmed and EMBASE databases were searched up to January 20, 2018. We included studies that reported proportion of management change after 68 Ga-PSMA PET in patients with prostate cancer. The quality of the studies was evaluated using the GRADE system. The proportion of management changes were pooled using random-effects model. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression analyses were performed to explore heterogeneity. Fifteen studies (1163 patients) were included. The pooled proportion of management changes was 54% (95% confidence interval 47-60%). At meta-regression analyses, PET positivity (%) was a significant factor of heterogeneity (p=0.0486). For patients with biochemical failure, the proportion of radiotherapy (from 56% to 61%), surgery (from 1% to 7%), focal therapy (from 1% to 2%), and multimodal treatment (from 2% to 6%) increased, whereas that of systemic treatment (from 26% to 12%) and no treatment (from 14% to 11%) decreased with 68 Ga-PSMA PET. 68 Ga-PSMA PET had a large impact on the management of patients with prostate cancer. Greater PET positivity was associated with higher proportion of management changes. We reviewed all previous studies assessing the impact of 68 Gallium prostate-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography ( 68 Ga-PSMA PET) in patients with prostate cancer. We found that 68 Ga-PSMA PET altered the management in approximately half of the patients. Copyright © 2018 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: the AgMIP approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delincé, Jacques; Ciaian, Pavel; Witzke, Heinz-Peter

2015-01-01

The current paper investigates the long-term global impacts on crop productivity under different climate scenarios using the AgMIP approach (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project). The paper provides horizontal model intercomparison from 11 economic models as well as a more detailed analysis of the simulated effects from the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model to systematically compare its performance with other AgMIP models and specifically for the Chinese agriculture. CAPRI is a comparative static partial equilibrium model extensively used for medium and long-term economic and environmental policy impact applications. The results indicate that, at the global level, the climate change will cause an agricultural productivity decrease (between -2% and -15% by 2050), a food price increase (between 1.3% and 56%) and an expansion of cultivated area (between 1% and 4%) by 2050. The results for China indicate that the climate change effects tend to be smaller than the global impacts. The CAPRI-simulated effects are, in general, close to the median across all AgMIP models. Model intercomparison analyses reveal consistency in terms of direction of change to climate change but relatively strong heterogeneity in the magnitude of the effects between models.

Commentary: demonstrating cost-effectiveness in pediatric psychology.

PubMed

McGrady, Meghan E

2014-07-01

Changes in the health care system and payment plans will likely require pediatric psychologists to illustrate the impact of their services. Cost-effectiveness analyses are one method of demonstrating the potential economic benefits of our services but are rarely used by pediatric psychologists. A hypothetical cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted, comparing the costs and outcomes between a behavioral adherence intervention and no intervention for youth with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Results illustrate how pediatric psychologists can use cost-effectiveness analyses to demonstrate the economic impact of their work. Efforts to conduct economic analyses could allow pediatric psychologists to advocate for their services. Implications and future directions are discussed. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Climate Impacts of Cover Crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardozzi, D.; Wieder, W. R.; Bonan, G. B.; Morris, C. K.; Grandy, S.

2016-12-01

Cover crops are planted in agricultural rotation with the intention of protecting soil rather than harvest. Cover crops have numerous environmental benefits that include preventing soil erosion, increasing soil fertility, and providing weed and pest control- among others. In addition to localized environmental benefits, cover crops can have important regional or global biogeochemical impacts by increasing soil organic carbon, changing emissions of greenhouse trace gases like nitrous oxide and methane, and reducing hydrologic nitrogen losses. Cover crops may additionally affect climate by changing biogeophysical processes, like albedo and latent heat flux, though these potential changes have not yet been evaluated. Here we use the coupled Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) - Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to test how planting cover crops in the United States may change biogeophysical fluxes and climate. We present seasonal changes in albedo, heat fluxes, evaporative partitioning, radiation, and the resulting changes in temperature. Preliminary analyses show that during seasons when cover crops are planted, latent heat flux increases and albedo decreases, changing the evaporative fraction and surface temperatures. Understanding both the biogeophysical changes caused by planting cover crops in this study and the biogeochemical changes found in other studies will give a clearer picture of the overall impacts of cover crops on climate and atmospheric chemistry, informing how this land use strategy will impact climate in the future.

An integrated assessment of climate change impacts for Athens- relevance to stakeholders and policy makers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannakopoulos, C.; Hatzaki, M.; Kostopoulou, E.; Varotsos, K.

2010-09-01

Analysing climate change and its impact needs a production of relevant elements for policy making that can be very different from the parameters considered by climate experts. In the framework of EU project CIRCE, a more realistic approach to match stakeholders and policy-makers demands is attempted. For this reason, within CIRCE selected case studies have been chosen that will provide assessments that can be integrated in practical decision making. In this work, an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on several sectors for the urban site of Athens in Greece is presented. The Athens urban case study has been chosen since it provides excellent opportunities for using an integrated approach across multiple temporal and spatial scales and sectors. In the spatial dimension, work extends from the inner city boundaries to the surrounding mountains and forests. In the temporal dimension, research ranges from the current observed time period (using available meteorological and sector data) to future time periods using data from several climate change projections. In addition, a multi-sector approach to climate change impacts is adopted. Impacts sectors covered range from direct climate impacts on natural ecosystems (such as flash floods, air pollution and forest fire risk) to indirect impacts resulting from combined climate-social-economic linkages (such as energy demand, tourism and health). Discussion of impact sector risks and adaptation measures are also exploited. Case-study work on impact sector risk to climate change is of particular interest to relevant policy makers and stakeholders, communication with who is ensured through a series of briefing notes and information sheets and through regional workshops.

Hydrologic connections between environmental and societal change at the Bonneville Salt Flats, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowen, B. B.; Harman, C. J.; Kipnis, E. L.; Liu, T.; Bernau, J. A.; Horel, J.

2017-12-01

The Bonneville Salt Flats (BSF) is an ephemeral and valued salt pan in northwestern Utah where a century of land speed racing and potash mining have created a complex and intertwined social and hydrologic system. The character of BSF changes on daily, weekly, monthly, annual, and geologic time scales in response to fluctuations in water balance, solute flux, and groundwater flow which is impacted by both local meteorology and water management associated with potash mining. In addition, the texture of the salt surface is changed by land use including racing activities, which impacts water fluxes through the crust. Ongoing research is focused on characterizing physical changes in the BSF environment and attributing observed changes in the landscape to specific processes and drivers. Five years of field observations and sampling, analyses of satellite imagery dating back the 1980s, and geochemical analysis of surface brines have shown that spatiotemporal changes in surface water and fluctuations in the surface salt footprint are linked to both climate and land use. Climate data over the last 30 years are examined to identify annual patterns in surface water balance at BSF to identify annual and seasonal climate constraints on flooding, evaporation, and desiccation cycles. A new weather station installed in the Fall of 2016 in the middle of BSF allows for unprecedented analyses of halite surface dynamics. Spatiotemporally dispersed stable isotope analyses of BSF surface brine samples constrain brine sources and evolution. An understanding of the processes that change the surface composition and texture through time inform interpretation of subsurface saline deposits at BSF. The wide range of temporal and spatial scales of observation help to guide to best management practices of this iconic natural resource.

U.S. Air Quality and Health Benefits from Avoided Climate Change under Greenhouse Gas Mitigation.

PubMed

Garcia-Menendez, Fernando; Saari, Rebecca K; Monier, Erwan; Selin, Noelle E

2015-07-07

We evaluate the impact of climate change on U.S. air quality and health in 2050 and 2100 using a global modeling framework and integrated economic, climate, and air pollution projections. Three internally consistent socioeconomic scenarios are used to value health benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation policies specifically derived from slowing climate change. Our projections suggest that climate change, exclusive of changes in air pollutant emissions, can significantly impact ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution across the U.S. and increase associated health effects. Climate policy can substantially reduce these impacts, and climate-related air pollution health benefits alone can offset a significant fraction of mitigation costs. We find that in contrast to cobenefits from reductions to coemitted pollutants, the climate-induced air quality benefits of policy increase with time and are largest between 2050 and 2100. Our projections also suggest that increasing climate policy stringency beyond a certain degree may lead to diminishing returns relative to its cost. However, our results indicate that the air quality impacts of climate change are substantial and should be considered by cost-benefit climate policy analyses.

Effect of Exercise Intensity on Percent Body Fat Determined by Leg-to-Leg and Segmental Bioelectrical Impedance Analyses in Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andreacci, Joseph L.; Nagle, Trisha; Fitzgerald, Elise; Rawson, Eric S.; Dixon, Curt B.

2013-01-01

Purpose: We examined the impact that cycle ergometry exercise had on percent body fat (%BF) estimates when assessed using either leg-to-leg or segmental bioelectrical impedance analysis (LBIA; SBIA) and whether the intensity of the exercise bout impacts the %BF magnitude of change. Method: Seventy-four college-aged adults participated in this…

Impacts of climate change on the microbial safety of pre-harvest leafy green vegetables as indicated by Escherichia coli O157 and Salmonella spp.

PubMed

Liu, Cheng; Hofstra, Nynke; Franz, Eelco

2013-05-15

The likelihood of leafy green vegetable (LGV) contamination and the associated pathogen growth and survival are strongly related to climatic conditions. Particularly temperature increase and precipitation pattern changes have a close relationship not only with the fate and transport of enteric bacteria, but also with their growth and survival. Using all relevant literature, this study reviews and synthesises major impacts of climate change (temperature increases and precipitation pattern changes) on contamination sources (manure, soil, surface water, sewage and wildlife) and pathways of foodborne pathogens (focussing on Escherichia coli O157 and Salmonella spp.) on pre-harvested LGVs. Whether climate change increases their prevalence depends not only on the resulting local balance of the positive and negative impacts but also on the selected regional climate change scenarios. However, the contamination risks are likely to increase. This review shows the need for quantitative modelling approaches with scenario analyses and additional laboratory experiments. This study gives an extensive overview of the impacts of climate change on the contamination of pre-harvested LGVs and shows that climate change should not be ignored in food safety management and research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis on the Climate Change Characteristics of Dianchi Lake Basin under the Background of Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhenyu, Yu; Luo, Yi; Yang, Kun; Qiongfei, Deng

2017-05-01

Based on the data published by the State Statistical Bureau and the weather station data, the annual mean temperature, wind speed, humidity, light duration and precipitation of Dianchi Lake in 1990 ~ 2014 were analysed. Combined with the population The results show that the climatic changes in Dianchi Lake basin are related to the climatic change in the past 25 years, and the correlation between these factors and the main climatic factors are analysed by linear regression, Mann-Kendall test, cumulative anomaly, R/S and Morlet wavelet analysis. Population, housing construction area growth and other aspects of the correlation trends and changes in the process, revealing the population expansion and housing construction area growth on the climate of the main factors of the cycle tendency of significant impact.

Effective techniques for changing physical activity and healthy eating intentions and behaviour: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

McDermott, Máirtín S; Oliver, Madalyn; Iverson, Don; Sharma, Rajeev

2016-11-01

The primary aim of this study was to review the evidence on the impact of a change in intention on behaviour and to identify (1) behaviour change techniques (BCTs) associated with changes in intention and (2) whether the same BCTs are also associated with changes in behaviour. A systematic review was conducted to identify interventions that produced a significant change in intention and assessed the impact of this change on behaviour at a subsequent time point. Each intervention was coded using a taxonomy of BCTs targeting healthy eating and physical activity. A series of meta-regression analyses were conducted to identify effective BCTs. In total, 25 reports were included. Interventions had a medium-to-large effect on intentions (d +  = 0.64) and a small-to-medium effect (d +  = 0.41) on behaviour. One BCT, 'provide information on the consequences of behaviour in general', was significantly associated with a positive change in intention. One BCT, 'relapse prevention/coping planning', was associated with a negative change in intention. No BCTs were found to have significant positive effects on behaviour. However, one BCT, 'provide feedback on performance', was found to have a significant negative effect. BCTs aligned with social cognitive theory were found to have significantly greater positive effects on intention (d +  = 0.83 vs. 0.56, p < .05), but not behaviour (d +  = 0.35 vs. 0.23, ns), than those aligned with the theory of planned behaviour. Although the included studies support the notion that a change in intention is associated with a change in behaviour, this review failed to produce evidence on how to facilitate behaviour change through a change in intention. Larger meta-analyses incorporating interventions targeting a broader range of behaviours may be warranted. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? Prior research on the causal relationship between intention and behaviour has produced mixed findings. Further experimental research to determine the precise nature of these variables is clearly warranted. However, precise guidance on how to change intention is still lacking. What does this study add? This study aimed to identify behaviour change techniques associated with changes in intention and behaviour. Techniques with positive effects on intention were identified; however, these did not have an impact on behaviour. Larger meta-analyses incorporating interventions targeting a broader range of behaviours may be warranted. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Methodological issues in assessing changes in costs pre- and post-medication switch: a schizophrenia study example

PubMed Central

Faries, Douglas E; Nyhuis, Allen W; Ascher-Svanum, Haya

2009-01-01

Background Schizophrenia is a severe, chronic, and costly illness that adversely impacts patients' lives and health care payer budgets. Cost comparisons of treatment regimens are, therefore, important to health care payers and researchers. Pre-Post analyses ("mirror-image"), where outcomes prior to a medication switch are compared to outcomes post-switch, are commonly used in such research. However, medication changes often occur during a costly crisis event. Patients may relapse, be hospitalized, have a medication change, and then spend a period of time with intense use of costly resources (post-medication switch). While many advantages and disadvantages of Pre-Post methodology have been discussed, issues regarding the attributability of costs incurred around the time of medication switching have not been fully investigated. Methods Medical resource use data, including medications and acute-care services (hospitalizations, partial hospitalizations, emergency department) were collected for patients with schizophrenia who switched antipsychotics (n = 105) during a 1-year randomized, naturalistic, antipsychotic cost-effectiveness schizophrenia trial. Within-patient changes in total costs per day were computed during the pre- and post-medication change periods. In addition to the standard Pre-Post analysis comparing costs pre- and post-medication change, we investigated the sensitivity of results to varying assumptions regarding the attributability of acute care service costs occurring just after a medication switch that were likely due to initial medication failure. Results Fifty-six percent of all costs incurred during the first week on the newly initiated antipsychotic were likely due to treatment failure with the previous antipsychotic. Standard analyses suggested an average increase in cost-per-day for each patient of $2.40 after switching medications. However, sensitivity analyses removing costs incurred post-switch that were potentially due to the failure of the initial medication suggested decreases in costs in the range of $4.77 to $9.69 per day post-switch. Conclusion Pre-Post cost analyses are sensitive to the approach used to handle acute-service costs occurring just after a medication change. Given the importance of quality economic research on the cost of switching treatments, thorough sensitivity analyses should be performed to identify the impact of crisis events around the time of medication change. PMID:19473545

Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

PubMed Central

Brown, Christopher J; Schoeman, David S; Sydeman, William J; Brander, Keith; Buckley, Lauren B; Burrows, Michael; Duarte, Carlos M; Moore, Pippa J; Pandolfi, John M; Poloczanska, Elvira; Venables, William; Richardson, Anthony J

2011-01-01

Contemporary impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems are increasingly being recognized. Documenting the extent of these impacts requires quantitative tools for analyses of ecological observations to distinguish climate impacts in noisy data and to understand interactions between climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer-reviewed articles that examined relationships between climate change and marine ecological variables. Of the articles with time series data (n = 186), 75% used statistics to test for a dependency of ecological variables on climate variables. We identified several common weaknesses in statistical approaches, including marginalizing other important non-climate drivers of change, ignoring temporal and spatial autocorrelation, averaging across spatial patterns and not reporting key metrics. We provide a list of issues that need to be addressed to make inferences more defensible, including the consideration of (i) data limitations and the comparability of data sets; (ii) alternative mechanisms for change; (iii) appropriate response variables; (iv) a suitable model for the process under study; (v) temporal autocorrelation; (vi) spatial autocorrelation and patterns; and (vii) the reporting of rates of change. While the focus of our review was marine studies, these suggestions are equally applicable to terrestrial studies. Consideration of these suggestions will help advance global knowledge of climate impacts and understanding of the processes driving ecological change.

Does climate directly influence NPP globally?

PubMed

Chu, Chengjin; Bartlett, Megan; Wang, Youshi; He, Fangliang; Weiner, Jacob; Chave, Jérôme; Sack, Lawren

2016-01-01

The need for rigorous analyses of climate impacts has never been more crucial. Current textbooks state that climate directly influences ecosystem annual net primary productivity (NPP), emphasizing the urgent need to monitor the impacts of climate change. A recent paper challenged this consensus, arguing, based on an analysis of NPP for 1247 woody plant communities across global climate gradients, that temperature and precipitation have negligible direct effects on NPP and only perhaps have indirect effects by constraining total stand biomass (Mtot ) and stand age (a). The authors of that study concluded that the length of the growing season (lgs ) might have a minor influence on NPP, an effect they considered not to be directly related to climate. In this article, we describe flaws that affected that study's conclusions and present novel analyses to disentangle the effects of stand variables and climate in determining NPP. We re-analyzed the same database to partition the direct and indirect effects of climate on NPP, using three approaches: maximum-likelihood model selection, independent-effects analysis, and structural equation modeling. These new analyses showed that about half of the global variation in NPP could be explained by Mtot combined with climate variables and supported strong and direct influences of climate independently of Mtot , both for NPP and for net biomass change averaged across the known lifetime of the stands (ABC = average biomass change). We show that lgs is an important climate variable, intrinsically correlated with, and contributing to mean annual temperature and precipitation (Tann and Pann ), all important climatic drivers of NPP. Our analyses provide guidance for statistical and mechanistic analyses of climate drivers of ecosystem processes for predictive modeling and provide novel evidence supporting the strong, direct role of climate in determining vegetation productivity at the global scale. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing climate change impact on complementarity between solar and hydro power in areas affected by glacier shrinkage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diah Puspitarini, Handriyanti; François, Baptiste; Zoccatelli, Davide; Brown, Casey; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Zaramella, Mattia; Borga, Marco

2017-04-01

Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) sources such as wind, solar and runoff sources are variable in time and space, following their driving weather variables. In this work we aim to analyse optimal mixes of energy sources, i.e. mixes of sources which minimize the deviation between energy load and generation, for a region in the Upper Adige river basin (Eastern Italian Alps) affected by glacier shrinking. The study focuses on hydropower (run of the river - RoR) and solar energy, and analyses the current situation as well different climate change scenarios. Changes in glacier extent in response to climate warming and/or altered precipitation regimes have the potential to substantially alter the magnitude and timing, as well as the spatial variation of watershed-scale hydrologic fluxes. This may change the complementarity with solar power as well. In this study, we analyse the climate change impact on complementarity between RoR and solar using the Decision Scaling approach (Brown et al. 2012). With this approach, the system vulnerability is separated from the climatic hazard that can come from any set of past or future climate conditions. It departs from conventional top-down impact studies because it explores the sensitivity of the system response to a plausible range of climate variations rather than its sensitivity to the time-varying outcome of individual GCM projections. It mainly relies on the development of Climate Response Functions that bring together i) the sensitivity of some system success and/or failure indicators to key external drivers (i.e. mean features of regional climate) and ii) the future values of these drivers as simulated from climate simulation chains. The main VRE sources used in the study region are solar- and hydro-power (with an important fraction of run-of-the river hydropower). The considered indicator of success is the 'energy penetration' coefficient, defined as the long-run percentage of energy demand naturally met by the VRE on an hourly basis. Climate response functions, developed in a 2D climate change space (change in mean temperature and precipitation), are built from multiple hydro-climatic scenarios obtained by perturbing the observed weather time series with the change factor method, and considering given glacier storage states. Climate experiments are further used for assessing these change factors from different emission scenarios, climate models and future prediction lead times. Their positioning on the Climate Response Function allows discussing the risk/opportunities pertaining to changes in VRE penetration in the future. Results show i) the large impact of glacier shrinkage on the complementarity between solar and RoR energy sources and ii) that the impact is decreasing with time, with the main alterations to be expected in the coming 30 years. Brown, C., Ghile, Y., Laverty, M., Li, K., (2012). Decision scaling: Linking bottom up vulnerability analysis with climate projections in the water sector. Water Resour Res 48. 515 doi:10.1029/2011WR011212

Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society.

PubMed

Mimura, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society.(Communicated by Kiyoshi HORIKAWA, M.J.A.).

Analysing the impact of urban areas patterns on the mean annual flow of 43 urbanized catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salavati, B.; Oudin, L.; Furusho, C.; Ribstein, P.

2015-06-01

It is often argued that urban areas play a significant role in catchment hydrology, but previous studies reported disparate results of urbanization impacts on stream flow. This might stem either from the difficulty to quantify the historical flow changes attributed to urbanization only (and not climate variability) or from the inability to decipher what type of urban planning is more critical for flows. In this study, we applied a hydrological model on 43 urban catchments in the United States to quantify the flow changes attributable to urbanization. Then, we tried to relate these flow changes to the changes of urban/impervious areas of the catchments. We argue that these spatial changes of urban areas can be more precisely characterized by landscape metrics, which enable analysing the patterns of historical urban growth. Landscape metrics combine the richness (the number) and evenness (the spatial distribution) of patch types represented on the landscape. Urbanization patterns within the framework of patch analysis have been widely studied but, to our knowledge, previous research works had not linked them to catchments hydrological behaviours. Our results showed that the catchments with larger impervious areas and larger mean patch areas are likely to have larger increase of runoff yield.

Intention stability assessed using residual change scores moderates the intention-behaviour association: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Rowan, Alicia A; McDermott, Máirtín S; Allen, Mark S

2017-12-01

Intention stability is considered to be one of the key pre-requisites for a strong association between intention and behaviour. It has been claimed, however, that studies examining the moderating impact of intention stability may be invalid, as they have relied on statistically inferior methods. Residual change scores have been suggested as a more appropriate method of measuring change (or lack thereof) in constructs. The aim of the current study, therefore, is to test whether intention stability, calculated using residual change scores, moderates the intention-physical activity behaviour association. A total of 163 participants (124 women, 39 men) completed questionnaires online at three time points separated by 14 day intervals. The moderating impact of intention stability was assessed using multiple linear regression followed up using simple slope analyses to identify the direction of any effect. The interaction of intention and intention stability was found to significantly improve the overall model fit. Intentions had a stronger positive association with behaviour when intentions were more stable than when they were more unstable. However, sensitivity analyses revealed that the association was not robust and reduced to non-significant with the removal of potential multivariate outliers. Future research should use residual change scores as the preferred method of assessing intention stability.

Energy security impacts of a severe drought on the future Finnish energy system.

PubMed

Jääskeläinen, Jaakko; Veijalainen, Noora; Syri, Sanna; Marttunen, Mika; Zakeri, Behnam

2018-07-01

Finland updated its Energy and Climate Strategy in late 2016 with the aim of increasing the share of renewable energy sources, increasing energy self-sufficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Concurrently, the issue of generation adequacy has grown more topical, especially since the record-high demand peak in Finland in January 2016. This paper analyses the Finnish energy system in years 2020 and 2030 by using the EnergyPLAN simulation tool to model whether different energy policy scenarios result in a plausible generation inadequacy. Moreover, as the Nordic energy system is so heavily dependent on hydropower production, we model and analyse the impacts of a severe drought on the Finnish energy system. We simulate hydropower availability according to the weather of the worst drought of the last century (in 1939-1942) with Finnish Environment Institute's Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System and we analyse the indirect impacts via reduced availability of electricity imports based on recent realised dry periods. Moreover, we analyse the environmental impacts of hydropower production during the drought and peak demand period and the impacts of climate change on generation adequacy in Finland. The results show that the scenarios of the new Energy and Climate Strategy result in an improved generation adequacy comparing to the current situation. However, a severe drought similar to that experienced in 1940s could cause a serious energy security threat. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Idaho National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Christopher P. Ischay; Ernest L. Fossum; Polly C. Buotte

2014-10-01

The University of Idaho (UI) was asked to participate in the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This report describes the outcome of that assessment. The climate change happening now, due in large part to human activities, is expected to continue in the future. UI and INL used a common framework for assessing vulnerability that considers exposure (future climate change), sensitivity (system or component responses to climate), impact (exposure combined with sensitivity), and adaptive capacity (capability of INL to modify operations to minimize climate change impacts) to assess vulnerability. Analyses of climate change (exposure)more » revealed that warming that is ongoing at INL will continue in the coming decades, with increased warming in later decades and under scenarios of greater greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of precipitation are more uncertain, with multi model means exhibiting somewhat wetter conditions and more wet days per year. Additional impacts relevant to INL include estimates of more burned area and increased evaporation and transpiration, leading to reduced soil moisture and plant growth.« less

Informing the NCA: EPA's Climate Change Impact and Risk Analysis Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.; Kolian, M.; Crimmins, A. R.

2017-12-01

The Climate Change Impact and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework is designed to quantify the physical impacts and economic damages in the United States under future climate change scenarios. To date, the framework has been applied to 25 sectors, using scenarios and projections developed for the Fourth National Climate Assessment. The strength of this framework has been in the use of consistent climatic, socioeconomic, and technological assumptions and inputs across the impact sectors to maximize the ease of cross-sector comparison. The results of the underlying CIRA sectoral analyses are informing the sustained assessment process by helping to address key gaps related to economic valuation and risk. Advancing capacity and scientific literature in this area has created opportunity to consider future applications and strengthening of the framework. This presentation will describe the CIRA framework, present results for various sectors such as heat mortality, air & water quality, winter recreation, and sea level rise, and introduce potential enhancements that can improve the utility of the framework for decision analysis.

Temporal estimates of genetic diversity in some Mytilus galloprovincialis populations impacted by the Prestige oil-spill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lado-Insua, Tanya; Pérez, Montse; Diz, Angel P.; Presa, Pablo

2011-04-01

The sinking of the tanker Prestige in November 2002 off the coast of Galicia resulted in the release of about 60,000 tons of heavy oil. The oil-spill provoked a serious environmental impact in Spanish and French coasts, which biological consequences are still being assessed. In this study we address the temporal dynamics of genetic diversity in some mussel populations impacted by the oil-spill. Changes in genetic diversity can be measured in natural populations provided that serial samples are available from before (year 2000) and after (years 2003, 2005) the oil-spill. Analyses of seven microsatellites indicate a weak but significant increase of genetic variation after the spill. This phenomenon is interpreted herein in terms of a balance between a enhanced genome mutability on microsatellite variation and a low genetic drift due to toxicants and asphyxia although other stochastic phenomena cannot be ruled out. Per locus annotation showed that in spite of the allelic changes observed in the period 2000-2005, the final size of most allelic series remained quite alike to those of year 2000. Present genetic data suggest that the genotoxic impact of the Prestige spill did not compromise the genetic diversity of studied mussel populations, at least regarding the genetic markers analysed.

Inter-sectoral comparison of model uncertainty of climate change impacts in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Griensven, Ann; Vetter, Tobias; Piontek, Franzisca; Gosling, Simon N.; Kamali, Bahareh; Reinhardt, Julia; Dinkneh, Aklilu; Yang, Hong; Alemayehu, Tadesse

2016-04-01

We present the model results and their uncertainties of an inter-sectoral impact model inter-comparison initiative (ISI-MIP) for climate change impacts in Africa. The study includes results on hydrological, crop and health aspects. The impact models used ensemble inputs consisting of 20 time series of daily rainfall and temperature data obtained from 5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and 4 Representative concentration pathway (RCP). In this study, we analysed model uncertainty for the Regional Hydrological Models, Global Hydrological Models, Malaria models and Crop models. For the regional hydrological models, we used 2 African test cases: the Blue Nile in Eastern Africa and the Niger in Western Africa. For both basins, the main sources of uncertainty are originating from the GCM and RCPs, while the uncertainty of the regional hydrological models is relatively low. The hydrological model uncertainty becomes more important when predicting changes on low flows compared to mean or high flows. For the other sectors, the impact models have the largest share of uncertainty compared to GCM and RCP, especially for Malaria and crop modelling. The overall conclusion of the ISI-MIP is that it is strongly advised to use ensemble modeling approach for climate change impact studies throughout the whole modelling chain.

Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stephens, Philip A.; Mason, Lucy R.; Green, Rhys E.; Gregory, Richard D.; Sauer, John R.; Alison, Jamie; Aunins, Ainars; Brotons, Lluís; Butchart, Stuart H.M.; Campedelli, Tommaso; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; Chylarecki, Przemyslaw; Crowe, Olivia; Elts, Jaanus; Escandell, Virginia; Foppen, Ruud P.B.; Heldbjerg, Henning; Herrando, Sergi; Husby, Magne; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lindström, Åke; Noble, David G.; Paquet, Jean-Yves; Reif, Jiri; Sattler, Thomas; Szép, Tibor; Teufelbauer, Norbert; Trautmann, Sven; Van Strien, Arco; van Turnhout, Chris A.M.; Vorisek, Petr; Willis, Stephen G.

2016-01-01

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

Cultural dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adger, W. Neil; Barnett, Jon; Brown, Katrina; Marshall, Nadine; O'Brien, Karen

2013-02-01

Society's response to every dimension of global climate change is mediated by culture. We analyse new research across the social sciences to show that climate change threatens cultural dimensions of lives and livelihoods that include the material and lived aspects of culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place. We find, furthermore, that there are important cultural dimensions to how societies respond and adapt to climate-related risks. We demonstrate how culture mediates changes in the environment and changes in societies, and we elucidate shortcomings in contemporary adaptation policy.

Is there an impact of global and local disasters on psychiatric inpatient admissions?

PubMed

Haker, Helene; Lauber, Christoph; Malti, Tina; Rössler, Wulf

2004-10-01

Disasters of the magnitude of September 11, 2001 have a serious public health impact. By dominating media broadcasts, this effect is not limited to the site of the disaster. We tested the hypothesis whether such extraordinary burden results in an increase of psychiatric inpatient treatment. As such we analysed all psychiatric inpatient admissions in the Canton of Zurich/Switzerland. To test the influence of proximity to a disaster, we additionally analysed the impact of a local amok run on September 27, 2001. Psychiatric inpatient admissions in the Canton of Zurich from September 2000 to September 2002 were analysed based on the data of the psychiatric case register. ARIMA modelling was employed to describe time-series of admissions per week over the 2-year period and to identify the impact of the incidents of 9/11 and 9/27, 2001. Mean numbers of weekly admissions were comparable in a time span of one month before and one month after the two incidents, thus, no significant changes were detected by the ARIMA modelling. Against widespread beliefs, for patients with severe mental disorders requiring hospitalisation illness factors seem to play a more relevant role for decompensation than external psychosocial factors such as the described incidents.

Human deforestation outweighs future climate change impacts of sedimentation on coral reefs

PubMed Central

Maina, Joseph; de Moel, Hans; Zinke, Jens; Madin, Joshua; McClanahan, Tim; Vermaat, Jan E.

2013-01-01

Near-shore coral reef systems are experiencing increased sediment supply due to conversion of forests to other land uses. Counteracting increased sediment loads requires an understanding of the relationship between forest cover and sediment supply, and how this relationship might change in the future. Here we study this relationship by simulating river flow and sediment supply in four watersheds that are adjacent to Madagascar’s major coral reef ecosystems for a range of future climate change projections and land-use change scenarios. We show that by 2090, all four watersheds are predicted to experience temperature increases and/or precipitation declines that, when combined, result in decreases in river flow and sediment load. However, these climate change-driven declines are outweighed by the impact of deforestation. Consequently, our analyses suggest that regional land-use management is more important than mediating climate change for influencing sedimentation of Malagasy coral reefs. PMID:23736941

Human deforestation outweighs future climate change impacts of sedimentation on coral reefs.

PubMed

Maina, Joseph; de Moel, Hans; Zinke, Jens; Madin, Joshua; McClanahan, Tim; Vermaat, Jan E

2013-01-01

Near-shore coral reef systems are experiencing increased sediment supply due to conversion of forests to other land uses. Counteracting increased sediment loads requires an understanding of the relationship between forest cover and sediment supply, and how this relationship might change in the future. Here we study this relationship by simulating river flow and sediment supply in four watersheds that are adjacent to Madagascar's major coral reef ecosystems for a range of future climate change projections and land-use change scenarios. We show that by 2090, all four watersheds are predicted to experience temperature increases and/or precipitation declines that, when combined, result in decreases in river flow and sediment load. However, these climate change-driven declines are outweighed by the impact of deforestation. Consequently, our analyses suggest that regional land-use management is more important than mediating climate change for influencing sedimentation of Malagasy coral reefs.

Impact of organisational change on mental health: a systematic review.

PubMed

Bamberger, Simon Grandjean; Vinding, Anker Lund; Larsen, Anelia; Nielsen, Peter; Fonager, Kirsten; Nielsen, René Nesgaard; Ryom, Pia; Omland, Øyvind

2012-08-01

Although limited evidence is available, organisational change is often cited as the cause of mental health problems. This paper provides an overview of the current literature regarding the impact of organisational change on mental health. A systematic search in PUBMED, PsychInfo and Web of Knowledge combining MeSH search terms for exposure and outcome. The criterion for inclusion was original data on exposure to organisational change with mental health problems as outcome. Both cross-sectional and longitudinal studies were included. We found in 11 out of 17 studies, an association between organisational change and elevated risk of mental health problems was observed, with a less provident association in the longitudinal studies. Based on the current research, this review cannot provide sufficient evidence of an association between organisational change and elevated risk of mental health problems. More studies of long-term effects are required including relevant analyses of confounders.

Impacts of climate change on cropping patterns in a tropical, sub-humid watershed

PubMed Central

Zwart, Sander J.; Hein, Lars

2018-01-01

In recent decades, there have been substantial increases in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a result of higher yields, increased cropping intensity, expansion of irrigated cropping systems, and rainfed cropland expansion. Yet, to date much of the research focus of the impact of climate change on crop production in the coming decades has been on crop yield responses. In this study, we analyse the impact of climate change on the potential for increasing rainfed cropping intensity through sequential cropping and irrigation expansion in central Benin. Our approach combines hydrological modelling and scenario analysis involving two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), two water-use scenarios for the watershed based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and environmental water requirements leading to sustained streamflow. Our analyses show that in Benin, warmer temperatures will severely limit crop production increases achieved through the expansion of sequential cropping. Depending on the climate change scenario, between 50% and 95% of cultivated areas that can currently support sequential cropping or will need to revert to single cropping. The results also show that the irrigation potential of the watershed will be at least halved by mid-century in all scenario combinations. Given the urgent need to increase crop production to meet the demands of a growing population in SSA, our study outlines challenges and the need for planned development that need to be overcome to improve food security in the coming decades. PMID:29513753

U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Overview of Sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, D.

2009-12-01

The assessment of the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States includes analyses of the potential climate change impacts by sector, including water resources, energy supply and use, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, human health and society. The resulting findings for the climate change impacts on these sectors are discussed in this presentation, with the effects on water resources discussed separately. Major findings include: Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. Agriculture is considered one of the sectors most adaptable to changes in climate. However, increased heat, pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge. Sea-level rise and storm surge place many U.S. coastal areas at increasing risk. Energy and transportation infrastructure and other property in coastal areas are very likely to be adversely affected. Threats to human health will increase. Health impacts of climate change are related to heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses. Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses to create larger impacts than from any of these factors alone. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems. There are a variety of thresholds in the climate system and ecosystems. These thresholds determine, for example, the presence of sea ice and permafrost, and the survival of species, from fish to insect pests, with implications for society. With further climate change, the crossing of additional thresholds is expected. These and many other findings will be discussed in the presentation.

Inflated Uncertainty in Multimodel-Based Regional Climate Projections.

PubMed

Madsen, Marianne Sloth; Langen, Peter L; Boberg, Fredrik; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg

2017-11-28

Multimodel ensembles are widely analyzed to estimate the range of future regional climate change projections. For an ensemble of climate models, the result is often portrayed by showing maps of the geographical distribution of the multimodel mean results and associated uncertainties represented by model spread at the grid point scale. Here we use a set of CMIP5 models to show that presenting statistics this way results in an overestimation of the projected range leading to physically implausible patterns of change on global but also on regional scales. We point out that similar inconsistencies occur in impact analyses relying on multimodel information extracted using statistics at the regional scale, for example, when a subset of CMIP models is selected to represent regional model spread. Consequently, the risk of unwanted impacts may be overestimated at larger scales as climate change impacts will never be realized as the worst (or best) case everywhere.

Trends in the Timing and Magnitude of Ice-Jam Floods in Canada.

PubMed

Rokaya, Prabin; Budhathoki, Sujata; Lindenschmidt, Karl-Erich

2018-04-11

Ice-jam floods (IJFs) are important hydrological and hydraulic events in the northern hemisphere that are of major concern for citizens, authorities, insurance companies and government agencies. In recent years, there have been advances in assessing and quantifying climate change impacts on river ice processes, however, an understanding of climate change and regulation impacts on the timing and magnitude of IJFs remains limited. This study presents a global overview of IJF case studies and discusses IJF risks in North America, one of the most IJF prone regions according to literature. Then an assessment of shifts in the timing and magnitude of IJFs in Canada is presented analyzing flow data from 1107 hydrometric stations across Canada for the period from 1903 to 2015. The analyses show clear signals of climate change and regulation impacts in the timing and magnitude of IJFs, particularly in small basins.

Impact of Redevelopment Projects on Waste Water Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhave, Prashant; Rahate, Sarvesh

2018-05-01

In the last few decades there has been a tremendous increase in urban population globally. Metropolitan cities in India are experiencing rapid change in their population due to migration from rural to urban areas. Due to limited land Mumbai city is experiencing vertical growth in the form of redevelopment projects, signifying a change in population density. Wastewater collection systems greatly contribute to the cost of the overall municipal sewerage system. Present study is an attempt to understand the impact of the redevelopment activities on the wastewater infrastructure. Existing sewerage network of an urban area in Central Mumbai was redesigned and analysed for four different planning scenarios with Bentley's SewerGEM. Results have shown significant change in diameters of the conduits within the sewer network, thus making it inefficient by 13, 19, 31 and 42% with each changing scenario. The results and analysis derived from the study are significant with respect to the urban town planners, developing solutions in alleviating the rising problem of sewer overflows and the economic impact being caused.

The Impact of Student Activism on Female Sex Role Attitudes: Longitudinal and Cross-Sectional Perspectives.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Orcutt, James D.; Inmon, Rebecca R.

This paper focuses on two issues related to changing attitudes toward the female sex role among college students. First longitudinal analyses are presented in an attempt to document the fact that sex role attitude change has occurred during the past decade of student activism. A five-item scale of attitudes toward the female role used in 1961 by…

The Morning After: Stakeholder Reflections on the Sustainability of a Community-Campus Engagement Center in the Changing Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hynie, Michaela; MacNevin, Wanda; Prescod, Cheryl; Rieder, Barry; Schwartzentruber, Lorna

2016-01-01

Most analyses of the success and sustainability of community-university engagement initiatives focus on the university environment. We explore the impact of changes in the larger social and political systems on the community as well as those within the university on the meaning and use of a shared community space. The York University-TD Community…

The Impact of National Agenda on a Local Education Authority's Website: A Visual Semiotic Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garrick, Barbara Gail; Pendergast, Donna

2014-01-01

This paper reports an analysis of the website of an education authority in the state of Queensland, Australia during the changeover from a state-based curriculum to a national curriculum. The paper's value lies in the capture of an exact moment of change. Kress and van Leeuwen's grammar of visual design is employed to analyse the changes to the…

Plants and climate change: complexities and surprises

PubMed Central

Parmesan, Camille; Hanley, Mick E.

2015-01-01

Background Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) will influence all aspects of plant biology over coming decades. Many changes in wild species have already been well-documented as a result of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, warming climate and changing precipitation regimes. A wealth of available data has allowed the use of meta-analyses to examine plant–climate interactions on more sophisticated levels than before. These analyses have revealed major differences in plant response among groups, e.g. with respect to functional traits, taxonomy, life-history and provenance. Interestingly, these meta-analyses have also exposed unexpected mismatches between theory, experimental, and observational studies. Scope We reviewed the literature on species’ responses to ACC, finding ∼42 % of 4000 species studied globally are plants (primarily terrestrial). We review impacts on phenology, distributions, ecophysiology, regeneration biology, plant–plant and plant–herbivore interactions, and the roles of plasticity and evolution. We focused on apparent deviations from expectation, and highlighted cases where more sophisticated analyses revealed that unexpected changes were, in fact, responses to ACC. Conclusions We found that conventionally expected responses are generally well-understood, and that it is the aberrant responses that are now yielding greater insight into current and possible future impacts of ACC. We argue that inconclusive, unexpected, or counter-intuitive results should be embraced in order to understand apparent disconnects between theory, prediction, and observation. We highlight prime examples from the collection of papers in this Special Issue, as well as general literature. We found use of plant functional groupings/traits had mixed success, but that some underutilized approaches, such as Grime's C/S/R strategies, when incorporated, have improved understanding of observed responses. Despite inherent difficulties, we highlight the need for ecologists to conduct community-level experiments in systems that replicate multiple aspects of ACC. Specifically, we call for development of coordinating experiments across networks of field sites, both natural and man-made. PMID:26555281

Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate change threatens human health and well-being in the United States. To address this growing threat, the Interagency Group on Climate Change and Human Health (CCHHG), a working group of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP), has developed this assessment as part of the ongoing efforts of the USGCRP’s National Climate Assessment (NCA) and as called for under the President’s Climate Action Plan. The authors of this assessment have compiled and assessed current research on human health impacts of climate change and summarized the current “state of the science” for a number of key impact areas. This assessment provides a comprehensive update to the most recent detailed technical assessment for the health impacts of climate change, 2008 Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.6 (SAP 4.6) Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems (CCSP 2008). It also updates and builds upon the health chapter of the third NCA (Melillo et al. 2014). The lead and coordinating Federal agencies for the USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment are the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Institute of Health (NIH), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Available at https://health2016.globalchange.gov/ The interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) has developed this assessment as part of the ongoing efforts of their National C

Communication changes experienced by adults with cerebral palsy as they age.

PubMed

Dark, Leigha Jane; Clemson, Lindy; Balandin, Susan

2016-12-01

Adults with cerebral palsy (CP) experience multiple, functional changes as they age, including changes to communication modes and methods that enable development and maintenance of relationships, communicative participation and quality-of-life. Little is known about the nature of communication changes experienced by this group. The aim of this study was to better understand how adults with CP experience changes in their communication abilities as they age and the subsequent psychosocial impact. Twenty adults with cerebral palsy aged 40-72 years with complex communication needs (CCN) participated in a series of in-depth interviews, framing their experiences of loss and grief throughout their lives. The impact of changing communication abilities emerged as an important area of focus. Data were analysed using constructivist grounded theory methodology. Themes arising from the participants' perceptions of their communication included experiencing communication change as a loss with subsequent impact on self-concept; and how communication is integral to the process of managing losses associated with older age. Implications for speech-language pathologists working with older people with cerebral palsy and CCN include the need to understand the psychosocial impact of communication changes on social interaction, relationships and communicative participation. It is important to promote positive and meaningful communication options that maintain a coherent sense of self in addition to promoting functional communication skills and communicative participation.

Assessing the combined effects of urbanisation and climate change on the river water quality in an integrated urban wastewater system in the UK.

PubMed

Astaraie-Imani, Maryam; Kapelan, Zoran; Fu, Guangtao; Butler, David

2012-12-15

Climate change and urbanisation are key factors affecting the future of water quality and quantity in urbanised catchments and are associated with significant uncertainty. The work reported in this paper is an evaluation of the combined and relative impacts of climate change and urbanisation on the receiving water quality in the context of an Integrated Urban Wastewater System (IUWS) in the UK. The impacts of intervening system operational control parameters are also investigated. Impact is determined by a detailed modelling study using both local and global sensitivity analysis methods together with correlation analysis. The results obtained from the case-study analysed clearly demonstrate that climate change combined with increasing urbanisation is likely to lead to worsening river water quality in terms of both frequency and magnitude of breaching threshold dissolved oxygen and ammonium concentrations. The results obtained also reveal the key climate change and urbanisation parameters that have the largest negative impact as well as the most responsive IUWS operational control parameters including major dependencies between all these parameters. This information can be further utilised to adapt future IUWS operation and/or design which, in turn, should make these systems more resilient to future climate and urbanisation changes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Novel Method of Weighting Cumulative Helmet Impacts Improves Correlation with Brain White Matter Changes After One Football Season of Sub-concussive Head Blows.

PubMed

Merchant-Borna, Kian; Asselin, Patrick; Narayan, Darren; Abar, Beau; Jones, Courtney M C; Bazarian, Jeffrey J

2016-12-01

One football season of sub-concussive head blows has been shown to be associated with subclinical white matter (WM) changes on diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Prior research analyses of helmet-based impact metrics using mean and peak linear and rotational acceleration showed relatively weak correlations to these WM changes; however, these analyses failed to account for the emerging concept that neuronal vulnerability to successive hits is inversely related to the time between hits (TBH). To develop a novel method for quantifying the cumulative effects of sub-concussive head blows during a single season of collegiate football by weighting helmet-based impact measures for time between helmet impacts. We further aim to compare correlations to changes in DTI after one season of collegiate football using weighted cumulative helmet-based impact measures to correlations using non-weighted cumulative helmet-based impact measures and non-cumulative measures. We performed a secondary analysis of DTI and helmet impact data collected on ten Division III collegiate football players during the 2011 season. All subjects underwent diffusion MR imaging before the start of the football season and within 1 week of the end of the football season. Helmet impacts were recorded at each practice and game using helmet-mounted accelerometers, which computed five helmet-based impact measures for each hit: linear acceleration (LA), rotational acceleration (RA), Gadd Severity Index (GSI), Head Injury Criterion (HIC 15 ), and Head Impact Technology severity profile (HITsp). All helmet-based impact measures were analyzed using five methods of summary: peak and mean (non-cumulative measures), season sum-totals (cumulative unweighted measures), and season sum-totals weighted for time between hits (TBH), the interval of time from hit to post-season DTI assessment (TUA), and both TBH and TUA combined. Summarized helmet-based impact measures were correlated to statistically significant changes in fractional anisotropy (FA) using bivariate and multivariable correlation analyses. The resulting R 2 values were averaged in each of the five summary method groups and compared using one-way ANOVA followed by Tukey post hoc tests for multiple comparisons. Total head hits for the season ranged from 431 to 1850. None of the athletes suffered a clinically evident concussion during the study period. The mean R 2 value for the correlations using cumulative helmet-based impact measures weighted for both TUA and TBH combined (0.51 ± 0.03) was significantly greater than the mean R 2 value for correlations using non-cumulative HIMs (vs. 0.19 ± 0.04, p < 0.0001), unweighted cumulative helmet-based impact measures (vs. 0.27 + 0.03, p < 0.0001), and cumulative helmet-based impact measures weighted for TBH alone (vs. 0.34 ± 0.02, p < 0.001). R 2 values for weighted cumulative helmet-based impact measures ranged from 0.32 to 0.77, with 60% of correlations being statistically significant. Cumulative GSI weighted for TBH and TUA explained 77% of the variance in the percent of white matter voxels with statistically significant (PWMVSS) increase in FA from pre-season to post-season, while both cumulative GSI and cumulative HIC 15 weighted for TUA accounted for 75% of the variance in PWMVSS decrease in FA. A novel method for weighting cumulative helmet-based impact measures summed over the course of a football season resulted in a marked improvement in the correlation to brain WM changes observed after a single football season of sub-concussive head blows. Our results lend support to the emerging concept that sub-concussive head blows can result in sub-clinical brain injury, and this may be influenced by the time between hits. If confirmed in an independent data set, our novel method for quantifying the cumulative effects of sub-concussive head blows could be used to develop threshold-based countermeasures to prevent the accumulation of WM changes with multiple seasons of play.

The Impact of Global Budgets on Pharmaceutical Spending and Utilization

PubMed Central

Fendrick, A. Mark; Song, Zirui; Landon, Bruce E.; Safran, Dana Gelb; Mechanic, Robert E.; Chernew, Michael E.

2014-01-01

In 2009, Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts implemented a global budget-based payment system, the Alternative Quality Contract (AQC), in which provider groups assumed accountability for spending. We investigate the impact of global budgets on the utilization of prescription drugs and related expenditures. Our analyses indicate no statistically significant evidence that the AQC reduced the use of drugs. Although the impact may change over time, early evidence suggests that it is premature to conclude that global budget systems may reduce access to medications. PMID:25500751

Structural and spectroscopic changes to natural nontronite induced by experimental impacts between 10 and 40 GPa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedlander, Lonia R.; Glotch, Timothy D.; Bish, David L.; Dyar, M. Darby; Sharp, Thomas G.; Sklute, Elizabeth C.; Michalski, Joseph R.

2015-05-01

Many phyllosilicate deposits remotely detected on Mars occur within bombarded terrains. Shock metamorphism from meteor impacts alters mineral structures, producing changed mineral spectra. Thus, impacts have likely affected the spectra of remotely sensed Martian phyllosilicates. We present spectral analysis results for a natural nontronite sample before and after laboratory-generated impacts over five peak pressures between 10 and 40 GPa. We conducted a suite of spectroscopic analyses to characterize the sample's impact-induced structural and spectral changes. Nontronite becomes increasingly disordered with increasing peak impact pressure. Every infrared spectroscopic technique used showed evidence of structural changes at shock pressures above ~25 GPa. Reflectance spectroscopy in the visible near-infrared region is primarily sensitive to the vibrations of metal-OH and interlayer H2O groups in the nontronite octahedral sheet. Midinfrared (MIR) spectroscopic techniques are sensitive to the vibrations of silicon and oxygen in the nontronite tetrahedral sheet. Because the tetrahedral and octahedral sheets of nontronite deform differently, impact-driven structural deformation may contribute to differences in phyllosilicate detection between remote sensing techniques sensitive to different parts of the nontronite structure. Observed spectroscopic changes also indicated that the sample's octahedral and tetrahedral sheets were structurally deformed but not completely dehydroxylated. This finding is an important distinction from previous studies of thermally altered phyllosilicates in which dehydroxylation follows dehydration in a stepwise progression preceding structural deformation. Impact alteration may thus complicate mineral-specific identifications based on the location of OH-group bands in remotely detected spectra. This is a key implication for Martian remote sensing arising from our results.

Modeling the role and impact of alien species and fisheries on the Israeli marine continental shelf ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corrales, X.; Ofir, E.; Coll, M.; Goren, M.; Edelist, D.; Heymans, J. J.; Gal, G.

2017-06-01

The ecosystems of the Israeli Mediterranean coast have undergone significant changes in recent decades mainly due to species invasions and fishing. In order to characterize the structure and functioning of the marine continental shelf of the Israeli Mediterranean coast and assess temporal changes, we developed a food web model representing two time periods: 1990-1994 and 2008-2012. The 1990-1994 and 2008-2012 food web models were composed of 39 and 41 functional groups, respectively. Functional groups ranged from primary producers to top predators, and included six and eight alien functional groups, respectively, encompassing several crustacean and fish species. Input data included local surveys and fishery statistics, published data on stomach content analyses, and the application of empirical equations to estimate consumption and production rates. Results of the competitive interactions between alien and native species and changes in trophic flows between food web components highlight the increasing impact of alien species over time. Fishing had noticeable impacts in both time periods and played an important role in the ecosystem. Despite different productivity rates and other environmental differences, the Israeli marine ecosystem shared common structural and functional traits with other Mediterranean marine ecosystems. This is the first attempt to study the ecosystem of the Levant region using mass-balance models and to integrate such a large amount of alien species into food web analyses.

Quantifying the health impacts of air pollution under a changing climate-a review of approaches and methodology.

PubMed

Sujaritpong, Sarunya; Dear, Keith; Cope, Martin; Walsh, Sean; Kjellstrom, Tord

2014-03-01

Climate change has been predicted to affect future air quality, with inevitable consequences for health. Quantifying the health effects of air pollution under a changing climate is crucial to provide evidence for actions to safeguard future populations. In this paper, we review published methods for quantifying health impacts to identify optimal approaches and ways in which existing challenges facing this line of research can be addressed. Most studies have employed a simplified methodology, while only a few have reported sensitivity analyses to assess sources of uncertainty. The limited investigations that do exist suggest that examining the health risk estimates should particularly take into account the uncertainty associated with future air pollution emissions scenarios, concentration-response functions, and future population growth and age structures. Knowledge gaps identified for future research include future health impacts from extreme air pollution events, interactions between temperature and air pollution effects on public health under a changing climate, and how population adaptation and behavioural changes in a warmer climate may modify exposure to air pollution and health consequences.

Ectotherms in Variable Thermal Landscapes: A Physiological Evaluation of the Invasive Potential of Fruit Flies Species

PubMed Central

Boher, Francisca; Trefault, Nicole; Estay, Sergio A.; Bozinovic, Francisco

2016-01-01

Climate change and biological invasions pose one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Most analyses of the potential biological impacts have focused on changes in mean temperature, but changes in thermal variance may also impact native and invasive organisms, although differentially. We assessed the combined effects of the mean and the variance of temperature on the expression of heat shock protein (hsp90) in adults of the invasive fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster and the native Drosophila gaucha in Mediterranean habitats of central Chile. We observed that, under these experimental conditions, hsp90 mRNA expression was higher in the invasive species but absent in the native one. Apparently, the biogeographic origin and niche conservatisms are playing a role in the heat shock response of these species under different putative scenarios of climate change. We suggest that in order to develop more realistic predictions about the biological impact of climate change and biological invasions, one must consider the interactions between the mean and variance of climatic variables, as well as the evolutionary original conditions of the native and invasive species. PMID:27486407

Impact of recent molecular phylogenetic studies on classification of ascomycete yeasts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Analyses of concatenated gene sequences as well as whole genome sequences are resolving relationships among the ascomycete yeasts (Saccharomycotina), thus allowing classification of members of this subphylum to be based on phylogeny. In addition, changes implemented in the new Botanical Code [Intern...

Marital Instability: Past, Present and Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Norton, Arthur J.; Glick, Paul C.

1976-01-01

The discussion includes analyses of the probable causative impact of several types of changes on the stability of marriage: socio-economic variables generally associated with divorce; overall social acceptability of divorce as reflected by lessened negative economic and social sanctions; and the roles of women. (Author/AM)

Long-term ecological changes in the north Adriatic Sea: Epi-to Infauna turnover at the Brijuni islands national park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pifeas, Iason; Gallmetzer, Ivo; Haselmair, Alexandra; Stachowitsch, Michael; Zuschin, Martin

2015-04-01

The northern Adriatic Sea with its densely populated coastline experienced strong anthropogenic impacts during the last centuries. The Brijuni islands at the southern tip of Istria, Croatia, are a national park since 1983 and represent a study area of special interest when comparing impacted marine areas with regions under relatively long-term protection that were able to recover from the pressure of fishing and bottom trawling. The present study is part of a project on the historical ecology of the northern Adriatic sea and focusses on long-term ecological changes and benthic community shifts as a result of anthropogenic impacts since the Holocene transgression. Several cores of 1.5 m length and a diameter of 90 mm were taken close to the main island of Brijuni and sliced into smaller subunits for sediment analyses and the investigation of death assemblages. Hard part remains of molluscs, crustaceans, bryozoans, echinoderms and sedentary polychaetes were analysed for species composition, abundance and indicators for high biomass epifauna. Death assemblages were compared with surface samples of the recent fauna taken at the same area by grab-sampling and by divers using a 100 x 100 cm frame. Data analyses revealed a steep increase of species abundance and diversity in the early stages of the Holocene transgression, at the very bottom of the core, followed by a steady decline, representing a major shift from a previously epibenthic to an infauna dominated community. Towards the top of the core, this trend weakens, and in the uppermost 6 cm it even reverses indicating a possible recovery of the benthic communities since the protection of the area. By correlating down-core changes in benthic community structure with sediment parameters (grain size distribution, TOC, heavy metal content, concentrations of organic pollutants) and data from radiometric sediment dating, we can further improve our understanding of the timing and the magnitude of past ecological changes and their consequences for benthic communities.

SAM International Case Studies: DPV Analysis in Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCall, James D

Presentation demonstrates the use of the System Advisor Model (SAM) in international analyses, specifically Mexico. Two analyses are discussed with relation to SAM modelling efforts: 1) Customer impacts from changes to net metering and billing agreements and 2) Potential benefits of PV for Mexican solar customers, the Mexican Treasury, and the environment. Along with the SAM analyses, integration of the International Utility Rate Database (I-URDB) with SAM and future international SAM work are discussed. Presentation was created for the International Solar Energy Society's (ISES) webinar titled 'International use of the NREL System Advisor Model (SAM) with case studies'.

Big Data for cardiology: novel discovery?

PubMed

Mayer-Schönberger, Viktor

2016-03-21

Big Data promises to change cardiology through a massive increase in the data gathered and analysed; but its impact goes beyond improving incrementally existing methods. The potential of comprehensive data sets for scientific discovery is examined, and its impact on the scientific method generally and cardiology in particular is posited, together with likely consequences for research and practice. Big Data in cardiology changes how new insights are being discovered. For it to flourish, significant modifications in the methods, structures, and institutions of the profession are necessary. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2015. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.

PubMed

Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael

2004-06-01

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research.

Climate-Change Impacts on Major Societal and Environmental Sectors: a National View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melillo, J. M.

2009-05-01

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Unified Synthesis Product reports on extant and possible future impacts of climate change for seven sectors at the national level - water resources, energy supply and use, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, human health and society. The sectoral analyses provide an integrated national picture of the climate-change consequences, now and in the future, for society and the environment, albeit a picture with regional texture. Major report findings for each sector will be presented. In addition to the specific sectoral findings, several overarching messages emerge from this component of the synthesis activity. First, it is important to think about interactions between and among sectors with regard to climate impacts. For example, the projected changes in the timing and amount of precipitation, and hence water supply, will very likely have significant implications for other sectors considered in the report. Changes in water supply have the potential to affect hydropower generation, river transportation, crop timing and management, in-stream ecosystem services including fish habitat, and human health issues related to links between heavy rains ad water-borne diseases. Second, the report concludes that climate-change impacts on the sectors must be considered in the context of a range of environmental and social factors including pollution, population growth, over use of resources, and urbanization. The multi-factor analysis provides insight into our understanding of where, when and how climate change combines with other environmental and social changes to affect the sectors. It also provides some understanding of how these interactions can either amplify or dampen climate-change impacts. This message has profound implications for the design of research programs and information systems at the national, regional and local levels. Furthermore, it demands that a true partnership be forged between the natural and social sciences to more adequately conduct assessments and seek solutions that address the complex challenges that multiple stresses pose. Third, the report notes that the United States is connected to a world that is unevenly vulnerable to climate change and thus will be affected by impacts globally. One example is agriculture. The degree to which climate change affects food production across the globe will affect the demand for our agricultural products and so the profitability of this sector. Fourth, the report highlights the importance of considering the unintended consequences of adaptation measures designed to avert or minimize negative impacts of climate change on various sectors. For example, the "hardening" of coastlines with sea walls and other structures to protect transportation infrastructure against storm surge and sea-level rise eliminates the ability of coastal ecosystems to adapt to these aspects of climate change by inward migration. While this "tradeoff" may be essential, it must be understood that with the loss of coastal ecosystems such as marshlands, comes the loss of the services they provide to society such as their function as nurseries for juvenile fish stocks that are essential for the sustainability of coastal fisheries. The general message about unintended consequences is that system-level analyses must be part of developing intelligent adaptation strategies to meet the challenges of climate change.

Evaluating distributed medical education: what are the community's expectations?

PubMed

Lovato, Chris; Bates, Joanna; Hanlon, Neil; Snadden, David

2009-05-01

This study aimed to explore community members' perceptions of present and future impacts of the implementation of an undergraduate medical education programme in an underserved community. We conducted semi-structured interviews with eight key informants representing the health, education, business, economy, media and political sectors. A two-stage approach was used. In the first stage, the interviews were analysed to identify sector-specific impacts informants perceived as already occurring or which they hoped to see in the future. The transcripts were then re-analysed to determine any underlying themes that crossed sectors. Community leaders described impacts that were already occurring in all sectors and also described changes in the community itself. Four underlying themes emerged: an increase in pride and status; partnership development; community self-efficacy, and community development. These underlying themes appear to characterise the development of social capital in the community. The implementation of distributed undergraduate medical education programmes in rural and underserved communities may impact their host communities in ways other than the production of a rural doctor workforce. Further studies to quantify impacts in diverse sectors and to explore possible links with social capital are needed.

Intra-Campaign Changes in Voting Preferences: The Impact of Media and Party Communication

PubMed Central

Johann, David; Königslöw, Katharina Kleinen-von; Kritzinger, Sylvia; Thomas, Kathrin

2018-01-01

An increasing number of citizens change and adapt their party preferences during the electoral campaign. We analyze which short-term factors explain intra-campaign changes in voting preferences, focusing on the visibility and tone of news media reporting and party canvassing. Our analyses rely on an integrative data approach, linking data from media content analysis to public opinion data. This enables us to investigate the relative impact of news media reporting as well as party communication. Inherently, we overcome previously identified methodological problems in the study of communication effects on voting behavior. Our findings reveal that campaigns matter: Especially interpersonal party canvassing increases voters’ likelihood to change their voting preferences in favor of the respective party, whereas media effects are limited to quality news outlets and depend on individual voters’ party ambivalence. PMID:29695892

Intra-Campaign Changes in Voting Preferences: The Impact of Media and Party Communication.

PubMed

Johann, David; Königslöw, Katharina Kleinen-von; Kritzinger, Sylvia; Thomas, Kathrin

2018-01-01

An increasing number of citizens change and adapt their party preferences during the electoral campaign. We analyze which short-term factors explain intra-campaign changes in voting preferences, focusing on the visibility and tone of news media reporting and party canvassing. Our analyses rely on an integrative data approach, linking data from media content analysis to public opinion data. This enables us to investigate the relative impact of news media reporting as well as party communication. Inherently, we overcome previously identified methodological problems in the study of communication effects on voting behavior. Our findings reveal that campaigns matter: Especially interpersonal party canvassing increases voters' likelihood to change their voting preferences in favor of the respective party, whereas media effects are limited to quality news outlets and depend on individual voters' party ambivalence.

The re-emergence of hyphenated history-and-philosophy-of-science and the testing of theories of scientific change.

PubMed

Laudan, Larry; Laudan, Rachel

2016-10-01

A basic premise of hyphenated history-and-philosophy-of-science is that theories of scientific change have to be based on empirical evidence derived from carefully constructed historical case studies. This paper analyses one such systematic attempt to test philosophical claims, describing its historical context, rationale, execution, and limited impact. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative analysis of the impacts of terrestrial environmental factors on precipitation variation over the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone in Coastal Southwest China.

PubMed

Zhao, Yinjun; Deng, Qiyu; Lin, Qing; Cai, Chunting

2017-03-15

Taking the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone as the study area, this paper utilizes the geographical detector model to quantify the feedback effects from the terrestrial environment on precipitation variation from 1985 to 2010 with a comprehensive consideration of natural factors (forest coverage rate, vegetation type, terrain, terrestrial ecosystem types, land use and land cover change) and social factors (population density, farmland rate, GDP and urbanization rate). First, we found that the precipitation trend rate in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone is between -47 and 96 mm/10a. Second, forest coverage rate change (FCRC), urbanization rate change (URC), GDP change (GDPC) and population density change (PDC) have a larger contribution to precipitation change through land-surface feedback, which makes them the leading factors. Third, the human element is found to primarily account for the precipitation changes in this region, as humans are the active media linking and enhancing these impact factors. Finally, it can be concluded that the interaction of impact factor pairs has a significant effect compared to the corresponding single factor on precipitation changes. The geographical detector model offers an analytical framework to reveal the terrestrial factors affecting the precipitation change, which gives direction for future work on regional climate modeling and analyses.

Communication changes following non-glottic head and neck cancer management: The perspectives of survivors and carers.

PubMed

Nund, Rebecca L; Rumbach, Anna F; Debattista, Bridget C; Goodrow, Martha N T; Johnson, Kori A; Tupling, Laura N; Scarinci, Nerina A; Cartmill, Bena; Ward, Elizabeth C; Porceddu, Sandro V

2015-06-01

Head and neck cancer (HNC) survivors may experience functional changes to their voice, speech and hearing following curative chemoradiotherapy. However, few studies have explored the impact of living with such changes from the perspective of the HNC survivor and their carer. The current study employed a person-centred approach to explore the lived experience of communication changes following chemoradiotherapy treatment for HNC from the perspective of survivors and carers. Participants included 14 survivors with non-glottic HNC and nine carers. All participants took part in in-depth interviews where they were encouraged to describe their experiences of living with and adjusting to communication changes following treatment. Interviews were analysed as a single data set. Four themes emerged including: (1) impairments in communication sub-systems; (2) the challenges of communicating in everyday life; (3) broad ranging effects of communication changes; and (4) adaptations as a result of communication changes. These data confirm that communication changes following chemoradiotherapy have potentially negative psychosocial impacts on both the HNC survivor and their carer. Clinicians should consider the impact of communication changes on the life of the HNC survivor and their carer and provide adequate and timely education and management to address the needs of this population.

Quantitative analysis of the impacts of terrestrial environmental factors on precipitation variation over the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone in Coastal Southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yinjun; Deng, Qiyu; Lin, Qing; Cai, Chunting

2017-03-01

Taking the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone as the study area, this paper utilizes the geographical detector model to quantify the feedback effects from the terrestrial environment on precipitation variation from 1985 to 2010 with a comprehensive consideration of natural factors (forest coverage rate, vegetation type, terrain, terrestrial ecosystem types, land use and land cover change) and social factors (population density, farmland rate, GDP and urbanization rate). First, we found that the precipitation trend rate in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone is between -47 and 96 mm/10a. Second, forest coverage rate change (FCRC), urbanization rate change (URC), GDP change (GDPC) and population density change (PDC) have a larger contribution to precipitation change through land-surface feedback, which makes them the leading factors. Third, the human element is found to primarily account for the precipitation changes in this region, as humans are the active media linking and enhancing these impact factors. Finally, it can be concluded that the interaction of impact factor pairs has a significant effect compared to the corresponding single factor on precipitation changes. The geographical detector model offers an analytical framework to reveal the terrestrial factors affecting the precipitation change, which gives direction for future work on regional climate modeling and analyses.

Impacts of climate change on coastal flood risk in England and Wales: 2030-2100.

PubMed

Hall, Jim W; Sayers, Paul B; Walkden, Mike J A; Panzeri, Mike

2006-04-15

Coastal flood risk is a function of the probability of coastal flooding and the consequential damage. Scenarios of potential changes in coastal flood risk due to changes in climate, society and the economy over the twenty-first century have been analysed using a national-scale quantified flood risk analysis methodology. If it is assumed that there will be no adaptation to increasing coastal flood risk, the expected annual damage in England and Wales due to coastal flooding is predicted to increase from the current 0.5 billion pounds to between 1.0 pound and 13.5 billion pounds, depending on the scenario of climate and socio-economic change. The proportion of national flood risk that is attributable to coastal flooding is projected to increase from roughly 50% to between 60 and 70%. Scenarios of adaptation to increasing risk, by construction of coastal dikes or retreat from coastal floodplains, are analysed. These adaptations are shown to be able to reduce coastal flood risk to between 0.2 pounds and 0.8 billion pounds. The capital cost of the associated coastal engineering works is estimated to be between 12 pounds and 40 billion pounds. Non-structural measures to reduce risk can make a major contribution to reducing the cost and environmental impact of engineering measures.

The Impact of Road Construction on Subjective Well-Being in Communities in Madre de Dios, Peru.

PubMed

Riley-Powell, Amy R; Lee, Gwenyth O; Naik, Nehal S; Jensen, Kelly E; O'Neal, Christina; Salmón-Mulanovich, Gabriela; Hartinger, Stella M; Bausch, Daniel G; Paz-Soldan, Valerie A

2018-06-15

The interoceanic highway (IOH) in Madre de Dios, Peru has driven dramatic change in the Peruvian Amazon basin. We conducted a mixed methods study to examine the impact of these changes on the subjective well-being (SWB) of four communities on the IOH. Themes that emerged qualitatively included changing health threats, environmental degradation, and the impact of increased migration. To achieve a higher level of SWB, respondents emphasized the need for higher incomes, opportunities to learn new skills, and a better education for their children. Potential threats to SWB included marital problems and poorer health. Quantitative analyses suggested that social support and a sense of security impacted reported SWB scores based on life satisfaction, and the impact of income on life satisfaction was mediated by food security. Although long-term residents felt that specific determinants of SWB had both increased (food variety, transport and access to work) and decreased (access to natural resources and hunting), the majority reported that their lives had improved overall. Health had been affected by the IOH in both negative ways (increased dengue and road accidents) and positive ways (improved access to health services). Our results suggest that the rapidly-changing communities near the IOH link well-being to health, income, community, and the environment.

Effects of changing climate on European stream invertebrate communities: A long-term data analysis.

PubMed

Jourdan, Jonas; O'Hara, Robert B; Bottarin, Roberta; Huttunen, Kaisa-Leena; Kuemmerlen, Mathias; Monteith, Don; Muotka, Timo; Ozoliņš, Dāvis; Paavola, Riku; Pilotto, Francesca; Springe, Gunta; Skuja, Agnija; Sundermann, Andrea; Tonkin, Jonathan D; Haase, Peter

2018-04-15

Long-term observations on riverine benthic invertebrate communities enable assessments of the potential impacts of global change on stream ecosystems. Besides increasing average temperatures, many studies predict greater temperature extremes and intense precipitation events as a consequence of climate change. In this study we examined long-term observation data (10-32years) of 26 streams and rivers from four ecoregions in the European Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) network, to investigate invertebrate community responses to changing climatic conditions. We used functional trait and multi-taxonomic analyses and combined examinations of general long-term changes in communities with detailed analyses of the impact of different climatic drivers (i.e., various temperature and precipitation variables) by focusing on the response of communities to climatic conditions of the previous year. Taxa and ecoregions differed substantially in their response to climate change conditions. We did not observe any trend of changes in total taxonomic richness or overall abundance over time or with increasing temperatures, which reflects a compensatory turnover in the composition of communities; sensitive Plecoptera decreased in response to warmer years and Ephemeroptera increased in northern regions. Invasive species increased with an increasing number of extreme days which also caused an apparent upstream community movement. The observed changes in functional feeding group diversity indicate that climate change may be associated with changes in trophic interactions within aquatic food webs. These findings highlight the vulnerability of riverine ecosystems to climate change and emphasize the need to further explore the interactive effects of climate change variables with other local stressors to develop appropriate conservation measures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of peer review on the reporting of primary outcome(s) and statistical analyses of randomised trials.

PubMed

Hopewell, Sally; Witt, Claudia M; Linde, Klaus; Icke, Katja; Adedire, Olubusola; Kirtley, Shona; Altman, Douglas G

2018-01-11

Selective reporting of outcomes in clinical trials is a serious problem. We aimed to investigate the influence of the peer review process within biomedical journals on reporting of primary outcome(s) and statistical analyses within reports of randomised trials. Each month, PubMed (May 2014 to April 2015) was searched to identify primary reports of randomised trials published in six high-impact general and 12 high-impact specialty journals. The corresponding author of each trial was invited to complete an online survey asking authors about changes made to their manuscript as part of the peer review process. Our main outcomes were to assess: (1) the nature and extent of changes as part of the peer review process, in relation to reporting of the primary outcome(s) and/or primary statistical analysis; (2) how often authors followed these requests; and (3) whether this was related to specific journal or trial characteristics. Of 893 corresponding authors who were invited to take part in the online survey 258 (29%) responded. The majority of trials were multicentre (n = 191; 74%); median sample size 325 (IQR 138 to 1010). The primary outcome was clearly defined in 92% (n = 238), of which the direction of treatment effect was statistically significant in 49%. The majority responded (1-10 Likert scale) they were satisfied with the overall handling (mean 8.6, SD 1.5) and quality of peer review (mean 8.5, SD 1.5) of their manuscript. Only 3% (n = 8) said that the editor or peer reviewers had asked them to change or clarify the trial's primary outcome. However, 27% (n = 69) reported they were asked to change or clarify the statistical analysis of the primary outcome; most had fulfilled the request, the main motivation being to improve the statistical methods (n = 38; 55%) or avoid rejection (n = 30; 44%). Overall, there was little association between authors being asked to make this change and the type of journal, intervention, significance of the primary outcome, or funding source. Thirty-six percent (n = 94) of authors had been asked to include additional analyses that had not been included in the original manuscript; in 77% (n = 72) these were not pre-specified in the protocol. Twenty-three percent (n = 60) had been asked to modify their overall conclusion, usually (n = 53; 88%) to provide a more cautious conclusion. Overall, most changes, as a result of the peer review process, resulted in improvements to the published manuscript; there was little evidence of a negative impact in terms of post hoc changes of the primary outcome. However, some suggested changes might be considered inappropriate, such as unplanned additional analyses, and should be discouraged.

Food Security Hotspots in India under Changing Climate and Growing Populatio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, N.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.

2015-12-01

Global climate change, unprecedented population growth, and rapid urbanization have elevated the possibility of food and water shortages in many regions across the world. The likelihood of such shortages in the future is further exacerbated by the fact that increased greenhouse forcing and rapid growth in human population will continue for at least the next several decades. These socio-environmental changes will likely put some regions under enormous economic and environmental stress by forcing them to adapt to new conditions. India with its rapidly growing population and high rates of urbanization and industrialization is one such region whose agricultural resources will be particularly vulnerable to the impact of these changes. This study collectively reviews and analyses the possible impacts of climate change, population growth and resulting land use change on the availability of food and water in the coming decades for India. By analyzing and fusing a wide variety of existing data and research on the impact of land use change, population, and climate change, on water and food resources this study develops an understanding of the broader implications of each of the changes on food security in the region. In addition, the study focuses on the need to assess and quantify the combination of such impacts at a regional level and identify food security hotspots spatially across India that will help to narrow down regions in the country which will be severely affected and need priority adaptation and mitigation measures.

An evaluation of the impact of biomass burning smoke aerosol particles on near surface temperature forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Reid, J. S.; Benedetti, A.; Christensen, M.; Marquis, J. W.

2016-12-01

Currently, with the improvements in aerosol forecast accuracies through aerosol data assimilation, the community is unavoidably facing a scientific question: is it worth the computational time to insert real-time aerosol analyses into numerical models for weather forecasts? In this study, by analyzing a significant biomass burning aerosol event that occurred in 2015 over the Northern part of the Central US, the impact of aerosol particles on near-surface temperature forecasts is evaluated. The aerosol direct surface cooling efficiency, which links surface temperature changes to aerosol loading, is derived from observational-based data for the first time. The potential of including real-time aerosol analyses into weather forecasting models for near surface temperature forecasts is also investigated.

Shielding requirements for the Space Station habitability modules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Avans, Sherman L.; Horn, Jennifer R.; Williamsen, Joel E.

1990-01-01

The design, analysis, development, and tests of the total meteoroid/debris protection system for the Space Station Freedom habitability modules, such as the habitation module, the laboratory module, and the node structures, are described. Design requirements are discussed along with development efforts, including a combination of hypervelocity testing and analyses. Computer hydrocode analysis of hypervelocity impact phenomena associated with Space Station habitability structures is covered and the use of optimization techniques, engineering models, and parametric analyses is assessed. Explosive rail gun development efforts and protective capability and damage tolerance of multilayer insulation due to meteoroid/debris impact are considered. It is concluded that anticipated changes in the debris environment definition and requirements will require rescoping the tests and analysis required to develop a protection system.

Mental health and debt collection: a story of progress? Exploring changes in debt collectors' attitudes and practices when working with customers with mental health problems, 2010-2016.

PubMed

Evans, Jamie; Fitch, Christopher; Collard, Sharon; Henderson, Claire

2018-04-27

In recent years, the UK debt collection industry has taken steps to improve its policies and practices in relation to customers with mental health problems. Little data, however, have been collected to evidence change. This paper examines whether the reported attitudes and practices of debt collection staff when working with customers with mental health problems have changed between 2010 and 2016. This paper draws on descriptive and regression analyses of two cross-sectional surveys of debt collection staff: one conducted in 2010 and one conducted in 2016. All variables analysed show statistically significant changes between 2010 and 2016 indicative of improved reported attitudes and practices. While results suggest an improvement in attitudes and practice may have occurred between 2010 and 2016, research is required to understand this potential shift, its likely causes, and concrete impact on customers.

Psychological Changes in Exercising COPD Patients.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gayle, Richard C.; And Others

1988-01-01

Fifteen adults with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were divided into treatment subjects who participated in a 28-week exercise regime and control subjects who participated in a 14-week exercise program. Analyses showed the aerobic exercise to have little impact on state-trait anxiety or depression scores. (Author/JDD)

The challenges and opportunities of climate change policy under different stages of economic development.

PubMed

Liobikienė, Genovaitė; Butkus, Mindaugas

2018-06-18

Climate change policy confronts with many challenges and opportunities. Thus the aim of this study was to analyse the impact of gross domestic product (hereinafter GDP), trade, foreign direct investment (hereinafter FDI), energy efficiency (hereinafter EF) and renewable energy (hereinafter RE) consumption on greenhouse gas (hereinafter GHG) emissions in 1990-2013 and reveal the main challenges and opportunities of climate policy for which policy makers should take the most attention under different stages of economic development. The results showed that the economic growth significantly contributed to the increase of GHG emissions and remains the main challenge in all groups of countries. Analysing the trade impact on pollution, the results revealed that the growth of export (hereinafter EX) significantly reduced GHG emissions only in high income countries. However, the export remains a challenge in low income countries. FDI insignificantly determined the changes in GHG emissions in all groups of countries. Meanwhile, energy efficiency and share of renewable energy consumption are the main opportunities of climate change policy because they reduce the GHG emissions in all groups of countries. Thus, technological processes, the increase of energy efficiency and the shift from carbon to renewable energy sources are the main tools implementing the climate change policy in all countries despite the different stage of economic development. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global economic-biophysical assessment of midterm scenarios for agricultural markets—biofuel policies, dietary patterns, cropland expansion, and productivity growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delzeit, Ruth; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Mauser, Wolfram

2018-02-01

Land-use decisions are made at the local level. They are influenced both by local factors and by global drivers and trends. These will most likely change over time e.g. due to political shocks, market developments or climate change. Hence, their influence should be taken into account when analysing and projecting local land-use decisions. We provide a set of mid-term scenarios of global drivers (until 2030) for use in regional and local studies on agriculture and land-use. In a participatory process, four important drivers are identified by experts from globally distributed regional studies: biofuel policies, increase in preferences for meat and dairy products in Asia, cropland expansion into uncultivated areas, and changes in agricultural productivity growth. Their impact on possible future developments of global and regional agricultural markets are analysed with a modelling framework consisting of a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop growth model. The business as usual (BAU) scenario causes production and prices of crops to rise over time. It also leads to a conversion of pasture land to cropland. Under different scenarios, global price changes range between -42 and +4% in 2030 compared to the BAU. An abolishment of biofuel targets does not significantly improve food security while an increased agricultural productivity and cropland expansion have a stronger impact on changes in food production and prices.

Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude.

PubMed

Deutsch, Curtis A; Tewksbury, Joshua J; Huey, Raymond B; Sheldon, Kimberly S; Ghalambor, Cameron K; Haak, David C; Martin, Paul R

2008-05-06

The impact of anthropogenic climate change on terrestrial organisms is often predicted to increase with latitude, in parallel with the rate of warming. Yet the biological impact of rising temperatures also depends on the physiological sensitivity of organisms to temperature change. We integrate empirical fitness curves describing the thermal tolerance of terrestrial insects from around the world with the projected geographic distribution of climate change for the next century to estimate the direct impact of warming on insect fitness across latitude. The results show that warming in the tropics, although relatively small in magnitude, is likely to have the most deleterious consequences because tropical insects are relatively sensitive to temperature change and are currently living very close to their optimal temperature. In contrast, species at higher latitudes have broader thermal tolerance and are living in climates that are currently cooler than their physiological optima, so that warming may even enhance their fitness. Available thermal tolerance data for several vertebrate taxa exhibit similar patterns, suggesting that these results are general for terrestrial ectotherms. Our analyses imply that, in the absence of ameliorating factors such as migration and adaptation, the greatest extinction risks from global warming may be in the tropics, where biological diversity is also greatest.

Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji.

PubMed

Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1) the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2) the context within which the policy was developed; 3) the relevant processes; and 4) the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should also be revised to consider climate change and its impact on human health. Approaches to include health aspects of climate change within sectoral and climate change specific policies should be encouraged, via a number of mechanisms, such as the Health in All Policies approach. Future research could support the Fiji health sector in developing climate change and health programmes.

Neuronal calcineurin transcriptional targets parallel changes observed in Alzheimer disease brain.

PubMed

Hopp, Sarah C; Bihlmeyer, Nathan A; Corradi, John P; Vanderburg, Charles; Cacace, Angela M; Das, Sudeshna; Clark, Timothy W; Betensky, Rebecca A; Hyman, Bradley T; Hudry, Eloise

2018-05-28

Synaptic dysfunction and loss are core pathological features in Alzheimer disease (AD). In the vicinity of amyloid-β plaques in animal models, synaptic toxicity occurs and is associated with chronic activation of the phosphatase calcineurin (CN). Indeed, pharmacological inhibition of CN blocks amyloid-β synaptotoxicity. We therefore hypothesized that CN-mediated transcriptional changes may contribute to AD neuropathology and tested this by examining the impact of CN overexpression on neuronal gene expression in vivo. We found dramatic transcriptional downregulation, especially of synaptic mRNAs, in neurons chronically exposed to CN activation. Importantly, the transcriptional profile parallels the changes in human AD tissue. Bioinformatics analyses suggest that both nuclear factor of activated T cells (NFAT) and numerous microRNAs may all be impacted by CN, and parallel findings are observed in AD. These data and analyses support the hypothesis that at least part of the synaptic failure characterizing AD may result from aberrant CN activation leading to downregulation of synaptic genes, potentially via activation of specific transcription factors and expression of repressive microRNAs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Grey literature in systematic reviews: a cross-sectional study of the contribution of non-English reports, unpublished studies and dissertations to the results of meta-analyses in child-relevant reviews.

PubMed

Hartling, Lisa; Featherstone, Robin; Nuspl, Megan; Shave, Kassi; Dryden, Donna M; Vandermeer, Ben

2017-04-19

Systematic reviews (SRs) are an important source of information about healthcare interventions. A key component of a well-conducted SR is a comprehensive literature search. There is limited evidence on the contribution of non-English reports, unpublished studies, and dissertations and their impact on results of meta-analyses. Our sample included SRs from three Cochrane Review Groups: Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI), Infectious Diseases (ID), Developmental Psychosocial and Learning Problems (DPLP) (n = 129). Outcomes included: 1) proportion of reviews that searched for and included each study type; 2) proportion of relevant studies represented by each study type; and 3) impact on results and conclusions of the primary meta-analysis for each study type. Most SRs searched for non-English studies; however, these were included in only 12% of reviews and represented less than 5% of included studies. There was a change in results in only four reviews (total sample = 129); in two cases the change did not have an impact on the statistical or clinical significance of results. Most SRs searched for unpublished studies but the majority did not include these (only 6%) and they represented 2% of included studies. In most cases the impact of including unpublished studies was small; a substantial impact was observed in one case that relied solely on unpublished data. Few reviews in ARI (9%) and ID (3%) searched for dissertations compared to 65% in DPLP. Overall, dissertations were included in only nine SRs and represented less than 2% of included studies. In the majority of cases the change in results was negligible or small; in the case where a large change was noted, the estimate was more conservative without dissertations. The majority of SRs searched for non-English and unpublished studies; however, these represented a small proportion of included studies and rarely impacted the results and conclusions of the review. Inclusion of these study types may have an impact in situations where there are few relevant studies, or where there are questionable vested interests in the published literature. We found substantial variation in whether SRs searched for dissertations; in most reviews that included dissertations, these had little impact on results.

Revolution or evolution? An analysis of E-health innovation and impact using a hypercube model.

PubMed

Wu, Jen-Her; Huang, An-Sheng; Hisa, Tzyh-Lih; Tsai, Hsien-Tang

2006-01-01

This study utilises a hypercube innovation model to analyse the changes in both healthcare informatics and medical related delivery models based on the innovations from Tele-healthcare, electronic healthcare (E-healthcare), to mobile healthcare (M-healthcare). Further, the critical impacts of these E-health innovations on the stakeholders: healthcare customers, hospitals, healthcare complementary providers and healthcare regulators are identified. Thereafter, the critical capabilities for adopting each innovation are discussed.

Examining the 16-year trajectories of mental health and wellbeing through the transition into widowhood.

PubMed

Burns, R A; Browning, C J; Kendig, H L

2015-12-01

Becoming widowed is a significant event. There is considerable evidence that surviving partners report substantial changes in their wellbeing and mental health. Changes can occur prior to partner's death as an anticipatory effect and consequently during the period after partner's death. For most, declines in wellbeing and mental health dissipate over time. However, there is a limited long-term evidence to compare age-normative trajectories in mental health and wellbeing with the trajectories of those who transition into widowhood. Participants (n = 652) were older adults (aged 65-94 years at baseline) from the 16-year Melbourne Longitudinal Studies on Healthy Ageing project who were either married or de facto (n = 577), or recently widowed (n = 75). Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) examined the immediate and long-term impact of widowhood. GEE piecewise regression analyses examined the trajectories of wellbeing and mental health in those who transitioned into widowed with time centered at time of partner's death. Analyses were stratified by gender. For both men and women, becoming widowed was strongly related to a strong decline in positive affect post partner's death. Otherwise, no long-term impact of widowhood on negative affect or depressive symptomology was reported. The impact of widowhood reports differential impacts on different indicators of wellbeing and mental health, which were inconsistent between men and women.

A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Meteorological and Hydrological Risks at Local Scale in South-Central Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Chad Shouquan; Li, Qian; Li, Guilong

2010-05-01

The synoptic weather typing approach has become popular in evaluating the impacts of climate change on a variety of environmental problems. One of the reasons is its ability to categorize a complex set of meteorological variables as a coherent index, which can facilitate analyses of local climate change impacts. The weather typing method has been applied in Environment Canada to analyze climatic change impacts on various meteorological/hydrological risks, such as freezing rain, heavy rainfall, high-/low-flow events, air pollution, and human health. These studies comprise of three major parts: (1) historical simulation modeling to verify the hazardous events, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale future climate information, and (3) estimates of changes in frequency and magnitude of future hazardous meteorological/hydrological events in this century. To achieve these goals, in addition to synoptic weather typing, the modeling conceptualizations in meteorology and hydrology and various linear/nonlinear regression techniques were applied. Furthermore, a formal model result verification process has been built into the entire modeling exercise. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables predicted by the models, showed very good agreement. This paper will briefly summarize these research projects, focusing on the modeling exercise and results.

Climate vulnerability of drinking water supplies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selmeczi, Pál; Homolya, Emese; Rotárné Szalkai, Ágnes

2016-04-01

Extreme weather conditions in Hungary led to difficulties in drinking water management on diverse occasions in the past. Due to reduced water resources and the coexisting high demand for drinking water in dry summer periods the availability of a number of water supplies became insufficient therefore causing limitations in water access. In some other cases, as a result of floods and flash floods over karstic areas evolving in consequence of excessive precipitation, several water supplies had to be excluded in order to avoid the risk of infections. More frequent occurrence of extreme weather conditions and further possible changes in the future induce the necessity for an analysis of the vulnerability of drinking water resources to climate change. Since 95% of the total drinking water supply in Hungary originates from subsurface layers, significance of groundwater resources is outstanding. The aim of our work carried out in the frames of the NAGiS (National Adaptation Geo-information System) project was to build up a methodology for the study and determination of the vulnerability of drinking water supplies to climate. The task covered analyses of climatic parameters influencing drinking water supplies principally and hydrogeological characteristics of the geological media that significantly determines vulnerability. Effects on drinking water resources and their reduction or exclusion may imply societal and economic consequences therefore we extended the analyses to the investigation of possibilities concerning the adaptation capacity to changed conditions. We applied the CIVAS (Climate Impact and Vulnerability Assessment Scheme) model developed in the frames of the international climate research project CLAVIER (Climate Change and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern Europe) to characterize climate vulnerability of drinking water supplies. The CIVAS model, being based on the combined evaluation of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, provides a unified methodical scheme to quantitative climatic impact assessment. We investigate the effects of climate change in the integrated context of exposure, sensitivity, impact, adaptive capacity and vulnerability, thus apart from the expected environmental changes societal and economic processes are also taken into account. Climate vulnerability has been determined on the basis of the distribution and categorisation of the chosen indicators. Further effects, independent of climate change and caused by anthropogenic activity, result in similar phenomena. It is often difficult to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic effects that occur simultaneously therefore in the analyses of vulnerability anthropogenic activity is needed to be taken into account. We determined climate vulnerability using data of two different climate models and for two separate future time periods. Results on the basis of both climate model projections suggest that a considerable number of regions in the area under investigation appear to be vulnerable to climate change to a certain extent and vulnerability intensifies to the end of the 21th century.

Development of adaptive IWRM options for climate change mitigation and adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flügel, W.-A.

2011-04-01

Adaptive Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) options related to the impacts of climate change in the twinning basins of the Upper Danube River Basin (UDRB) and the Upper Brahmaputra River Basin (UBRB) are developed based on the results obtained in the different work packages of the BRAHMATWINN project. They have been described and discussed in Chapter 2 till Chapter 9 and the paper is referring to and is integrating these findings with respect to their application and interpretation for the development of adaptive IWRM options addressing impacts of climate change in river basins. The data and information related to the results discussed in Chapter 2 till 8 have been input to the RBIS as a central component of the IWRMS (Chapter 9). Meanwhile the UDRB has been analysed with respect to IWRM and climate change impacts by various projects, i.e. the GLOWA-Danube BMBF funded project (GLOWA Danube, 2009; Mauser and Ludwig, 2002) the UBRB has not been studied so far in a similar way as it was done in the BRAHMATWINN project. Therefore the IWRM option development is focussing on the UBRB but the methodology presented can be applied for the UDRB and other river basins as well. Data presented and analysed in this chapter have been elaborated by the BRAHMATWINN project partners and are published in the project deliverable reports available from the project homepage http://www.brahmatwinn.uni-jena.de/index.php?id=5311&L=2.

Identifying surging glaciers in the Central Karakoram for improved climate change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, Frank; Bolch, Tobias; Mölg, Nico; Rastner, Philipp

2015-04-01

Several recent studies have investigated glacier changes in the Karakoram mountain range, a region where glaciers behave differently (mass gain and advancing tongues) compared to most other regions in the world. Attribution of this behaviour to climate change is challenging, as many glaciers in the Karakoram are of surge type and have actively surged in the recent past. The measured changes in length, area, volume or velocity in this region are thus depending on the time-period analysed and include non-climatic components. Hence, a proper analysis of climate change impacts on glaciers in this region requires a separation of the surging from the non-surging glaciers. This is challenging as the former often lack the typical surface characteristics such as looped moraines (e.g. when they are steep and small) and/or they merge (during a surge) with a larger non-surging glacier and create looped moraines on its surface. By analysing time series of satellite images that are available since 1961, the heterogeneous behaviour of glaciers in the Karakoram can be revealed. In this study, we have analysed changes in glacier terminus positions in the Karakoram over different time periods from 1961 to 2014 for several hundred glaciers using Corona KH-4 and KH-4B, Hexagon KH-9, Terra ASTER, and Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+ and OLI satellite data. For the last 15 years, high-speed animations of image time-series reveal details of glacier flow and surge dynamics that are otherwise difficult to detect. For example, several of the larger glaciers with surging tributaries (e.g. Panmah, Sarpo Laggo, Skamri, K2 glacier) are stationary and downwasting despite the mass contributions from the surging glaciers. The analysis of the entire time series reveals a complex pattern of changes through time with retreating, advancing, surging and stationary glaciers that are partly regionally clustered. While most of the non-surging glaciers show only small changes in terminus position (±100 m or less) over the analysed time period, length changes of surging glaciers can exceed several kilometres with a continuum of advance rates and surge durations (from 2 to >10 years). Their highly variable extents have thus to be considered when glacier-specific volume changes and flow velocities are calculated. In the presentation we will show our revised assignment of surging glaciers, their changing extents through time along with an analysis of their variable advance rates, and a spatio-temporal overview of glacier changes over the past 50 years.

The Impacts and Economic Costs of Climate Change in Agriculture and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, A.; Quiroga, S.; Garrote, L.; Cunningham, R.

2012-04-01

This paper provides monetary estimates of the effects of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe. The model computes spatial crop productivity changes as a response to climate change linking biophysical and socioeconomic components. It combines available data sets of crop productivity changes under climate change (Iglesias et al 2011, Ciscar et al 2011), statistical functions of productivity response to water and nitrogen inputs, catchment level water availability, and environmental policy scenarios. Future global change scenarios are derived from several socio-economic futures of representative concentration pathways and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model. The marginal productivity changes has been used as an input for the economic general equilibrium model in order to analyse the economic impact of the agricultural changes induced by climate change in the world. The study also includes the analysis of an adaptive capacity index computed by using the socio-economic results of GTAP. The results are combined to prioritize agricultural adaptation policy needs in Europe.

Understanding the impact of public policy on cancer research: a bibliometric approach.

PubMed

Lewison, Grant; Purushotham, Arnie; Mason, Malcolm; McVie, Gordon; Sullivan, Richard

2010-03-01

With global spend on cancer research from the public sector now in excess of 14 billion euro, as well as the increasing burden of disease in market economies and low-middle income countries through changing demographics (ageing and population growth) cancer is now one of the most complex and global public policy issues. Using novel bibliometrics we have sought to investigate changes in research activity (total output), relative commitment and collaborations between countries/regions with similar healthcare and population and development parameters - United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada and Sweden - to assess the utility of this policy research approach by analysing two different cohorts (1995-1999 and 2000-2004) to study the impact of changes on research publications as a surrogate for overall research activity. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Water quality under increased biofuel production and future climate change and uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Y. K.; Yan, E.

2015-12-01

Over the past decade, biofuel has emerged as an important renewable energy source to supplement gasoline and reduce the associated greenhouse gas emission. Many countries, for instant, have adopted biofuel production goals to blend 10% or more of gasoline with biofuels within 10 to 20 years. However, meeting these goals requires sustainable production of biofuel feedstock which can be challenging under future change in climate and extreme weather conditions, as well as the likely impacts of biofuel feedstock production on water quality and availability. To understand this interrelationship and the combined effects of increased biofuel production and climate change on regional and local water resources, we have performed watershed hydrology and water quality analyses for the Ohio River Basin. The basin is one of the major biofuel feedstock producing region in the United States, which also currently contributes about half of the flow and one third of phosphorus and nitrogen loadings to the Mississippi River that eventually flows to the Gulf of Mexico. The analyses integrate future scenarios and climate change and biofuel development through various mixes of landuse and agricultural management changes and examine their potential impacts on regional and local hydrology, water quality, soil erosion, and agriculture productivity. The results of the study are expected to provide much needed insight about the sustainability of large-scale biofuel feedstock production under the future climate change and uncertainty, and helps to further optimize the feedstock production taking into consideration the water-use efficiency.

Marine water quality under climate change conditions/scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Brigolin, Daniele; Carniel, Sandro; Pastres, Roberto; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The increase of sea temperature and the changes in marine currents are generating impacts on coastal waters such as changes in water biogeochemical and physical parameters (e.g. primary production, pH, salinity) leading to progressive degradation of the marine environment. With the main aim of analysing the potential impacts of climate change on coastal water quality, a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed and applied to coastal marine waters of the North Adriatic (i.e. coastal water bodies of the Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia regions, Italy). RRA integrates the outputs of regional models providing information on macronutrients (i.e. dissolved inorganic nitrogen e reactive phosphorus), dissolved oxygen, pH, salinity and temperature, etc., under future climate change scenarios with site-specific environmental and socio-economic indicators (e.g. biotic index, presence and extension of seagrasses, presence of aquaculture). The presented approach uses Geographic Information Systems to manage, analyse, and visualize data and employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the integration of stakeholders preferences and experts judgments into the evaluation process. RRA outputs are hazard, exposure, vulnerability, risk and damage maps useful for the identification and prioritization of hot-spot areas and vulnerable targets in the considered region. Therefore, the main aim of this contribution is to apply the RRA methodology to integrate, visualize, and rank according to spatial distribution, physical and chemical data concerning the coastal waters of the North Adriatic Sea in order to predict possible changes of the actual water quality.

The Emotional Impact of Leaders' Behaviours

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fowlie, Julie; Wood, Matthew

2009-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this article is to analyse MBA students' actual experiences of both good and bad leadership and the resulting emotional responses; to determine which emotionally intelligent competencies, if any, have greater importance in times of change. Design/methodology/approach: The paper follows a deductive approach: moving from the…

Application of landscape models to alternative futures analyses

Treesearch

Anne C. Neale; K. Bruce Jones; Maliha S. Nash; Rick D. Van Remortel; James D. Wickham; Kurt H. Riitters; Robert V. O' neil

2003-01-01

Scientists and environmental managers alike are concerned about broadscale changes in land use and landscape pattern and their cumulative impact on environmental and economic end points, such as water quality and quantity, species habitat, productivity, erosion potential, recreational value, and overall ecological health (Rapport et al., 1998). They also are interested...

Social Capital and Health Inequality: Evidence from Taiwan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Song, Lijun; Lin, Nan

2009-01-01

Does social capital, resources embedded in social relationships, influence health? This research examines whether social capital impacts depressive symptoms and overall perceived health status over and above the effects of social support. Our analyses use unique data from the Taiwan Social Change Survey collected in 1997, and measures social…

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

The impact of global budgets on pharmaceutical spending and utilization: early experience from the alternative quality contract.

PubMed

Afendulis, Christopher C; Fendrick, A Mark; Song, Zirui; Landon, Bruce E; Safran, Dana Gelb; Mechanic, Robert E; Chernew, Michael E

2014-01-01

In 2009, Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts implemented a global budget-based payment system, the Alternative Quality Contract (AQC), in which provider groups assumed accountability for spending. We investigate the impact of global budgets on the utilization of prescription drugs and related expenditures. Our analyses indicate no statistically significant evidence that the AQC reduced the use of drugs. Although the impact may change over time, early evidence suggests that it is premature to conclude that global budget systems may reduce access to medications. © The Author(s) 2014.

Watershed Scale Analysis of Groundwater Surface Water Interactions and Its Application to Conjunctive Management under Climatic and Anthropogenic Stresses over the US Sunbelt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Seung Beom

Although water is one of the most essential natural resources, human activities have been exerting pressure on water resources. In order to reduce these stresses on water resources, two key issues threatening water resources sustainability - interaction between surface water and groundwater resources and groundwater withdrawal impacts of streamflow depletion - were investigated in this study. First, a systematic decomposition procedure was proposed for quantifying the errors arising from various sources in the model chain in projecting the changes in hydrologic attributes using near-term climate change projections. Apart from the unexplained changes by GCMs, the process of customizing GCM projections to watershed scale through a model chain - spatial downscaling, temporal disaggregation and hydrologic model - also introduces errors, thereby limiting the ability to explain the observed changes in hydrologic variability. Towards this, we first propose metrics for quantifying the errors arising from different steps in the model chain in explaining the observed changes in hydrologic variables (streamflow, groundwater). The proposed metrics are then evaluated using a detailed retrospective analyses in projecting the changes in streamflow and groundwater attributes in four target basins that span across a diverse hydroclimatic regimes over the US Sunbelt. Our analyses focused on quantifying the dominant sources of errors in projecting the changes in eight hydrologic variables - mean and variability of seasonal streamflow, mean and variability of 3-day peak seasonal streamflow, mean and variability of 7-day low seasonal streamflow and mean and standard deviation of groundwater depth - over four target basins using an Penn state Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) between the period 1956-1980 and 1981-2005. Retrospective analyses show that small/humid (large/arid) basins show increased (reduced) uncertainty in projecting the changes in hydrologic attributes. Further, changes in error due to GCMs primarily account for the unexplained changes in mean and variability of seasonal streamflow. On the other hand, the changes in error due to temporal disaggregation and hydrologic model account for the inability to explain the observed changes in mean and variability of seasonal extremes. Thus, the proposed metrics provide insights on how the error in explaining the observed changes being propagated through the model under different hydroclimatic regimes. To understand interaction between surface water and groundwater resources, transient pumping impacts on streamflow and groundwater level were analyzed by imposing shortterm pumping scenarios under historic drought conditions. Since surface water and groundwater systems are fully coupled and integrated systems, increased groundwater withdrawal during drought may reduce baseflow into the stream and prolong both systems' recovery from drought. Towards this, we proposed an uncertainty framework to understand the resiliency of groundwater and surface water systems using a fully-coupled hydrologic model under transient pumping. Using this framework, we quantified the restoration time of surface water and groundwater systems and also estimated the changes in the state variables after pumping. Groundwater pumping impacts over the watershed were also analyzed under different pumping volumes and different potential climate scenarios. Our analyses show that groundwater restoration time is more sensitive to changes in pumping volumes as opposed to changes in climate. After the cessation of pumping, streamflow recovers quickly in comparison to groundwater. Pumping impacts on other state variables are also discussed. Given that surface water and groundwater are inter-connected, optimal management of the both resources should be considered to improve the watershed resiliency under drought. Subsequently, conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater has been considered as an effective approach to mitigate water shortage problems that are primarily caused by a drought. It is found that appropriate use of groundwater withdrawal was able to reduce water scarcity in surface water resources in drought condition. Besides, recovery time constraint was embedded in the management model so that trade-off between minimizing water scarcity and maximizing sustainability on groundwater was successfully addressed.

Water impact studies. [impact of remote sensing techniques on management storage, flow, and delivery of California water

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colwell, R. N.

1973-01-01

An investigation has begun into the potential impact of using modern remote sensing techniques as an aid in managing, even on a day-to-day basis, the storage, flow, and delivery of water made available through the California Water Project. It is obvious that the amount of this impact depends upon the extent to which remote sensing is proven to be useful in improving predictions of both the amount of water that will be available and the amount that will be needed. It is also proposed to investigate the potential impact of remote sensing techniques as an aid in monitoring, and perhaps even in directing, changes in land use and life style being brought about through the increased availability of water in central and southern California as a result of the California Water Project. The impact of remote sensing can be of appreciable significance only if: (1) the induced changes are very substantial ones; (2) remote sensing is found, in this context, to be very useful and potentially very cost effective; and (3) resource managers adopt this new technology. Analyses will be conducted of the changing economic bases and the new land use demands resulting from increased water availability in central and southern California.

What is the role of historical anthropogenically-induced land-cover change on the surface climate of West Africa? Results from the LUCID intercomparison project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souleymane, S.

2015-12-01

West Africa has been highlighted as a hot spot of land surface-atmosphere interactions. This study analyses the outputs of the project Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of Robust Impacts (LUCID) over West Africa. LUCID used seven atmosphere-land models with a common experimental design to explore the impacts of Land Use induced Land Cover Change (LULCC) that are robust and consistent across the climate models. Focusing the analysis on Sahel and Guinea, this study shows that, even though the seven climate models use the same atmospheric and land cover forcing, there are significant differences of West African Monsoon variability across the climate models. The magnitude of that variability differs significantly from model to model resulting two major "features": (1) atmosphere dynamics models; (2) how the land-surface functioning is parameterized in the Land surface Model, in particular regarding the evapotranspiration partitioning within the different land-cover types, as well as the role of leaf area index (LAI) in the flux calculations and how strongly the surface is coupled to the atmosphere. The major role that the models'sensitivity to land-cover perturbations plays in the resulting climate impacts of LULCC has been analysed in this study. The climate models show, however, significant differences in the magnitude and the seasonal partitioning of the temperature change. The LULCC induced cooling is directed by decreases in net shortwave radiation that reduced the available energy (QA) (related to changes in land-cover properties other than albedo, such as LAI and surface roughness), which decreases during most part of the year. The biophysical impacts of LULCC were compared to the impact of elevated greenhouse gases resulting changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice extent (CO2SST). The results show that the surface cooling (related a decrease in QA) induced by the biophysical effects of LULCC are insignificant compared to surface warming (related an increase in QA), which is induced by the regional significance effect of CO2SST due to a small LULCC imposed. In contrast, the decrease of surface water balance resulting from LULCC effect is a similar sign to those resulting from CO2SST but the signal resulting of the biophysical effects of LULCC is stronger than the regional CO2SST impact.

An exploratory analysis of Indiana and Illinois biotic ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA recognizes the importance of nutrient criteria in protecting designated uses from eutrophication effects associated with elevated phosphorus and nitrogen in streams and has worked with states over the past 12 years to assist them in developing nutrient criteria. Towards that end, EPA has provided states and tribes with technical guidance to assess nutrient impacts and to develop criteria. EPA published recommendations in 2000 on scientifically defensible empirical approaches for setting numeric criteria. EPA also published eco-regional criteria recommendations in 2000-2001 based on a frequency distribution approach meant to approximate reference condition concentrations. In 2010, EPA elaborated on one of these empirical approaches (i.e., stressor-response relationships) for developing nutrient criteria. The purpose of this report was to conduct exploratory analyses of state datasets from Illinois and Indiana to determine threshold values for nutrients and chlorophyll a that could guide Indiana and Illinois criteria development. Box and whisker plots were used to compare nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations between Illinois and Indiana. Stressor response analyses, using piece-wise linear regression and change-point analysis (Illinois only) were conducted to determine thresholds of change in relationships between nutrients and biotic assemblages. Impact stmt: The purpose of this report was to conduct exploratory analyses of state datasets from Illinois

How do medical educators design a curriculum that facilitates student learning about professionalism?

PubMed

Langendyk, Vicki; Mason, Glenn; Wang, Shaoyu

2016-02-04

This study analyses the ways in which curriculum reform facilitated student learning about professionalism. Design-based research provided the structure for an iterative approach to curriculum change which we undertook over a 3 year period. The learning environment of the Personal and Professional Development Theme (PPD) was analysed through the sociocultural lens of Activity Theory. Lave and Wenger's and Mezirow's learning theories informed curriculum reform to support student development of a patient-centred and critically reflective professional identity. The renewed pedagogical outcomes were aligned with curriculum content, learning and teaching processes and assessment, and intense staff education was undertaken. We analysed qualitative data from tutor interviews and free-response student surveys to evaluate the impact of curriculum reform. Students' and tutors' reflections on learning in PPD converged on two principle themes--'Developing a philosophy of medicine' and 'Becoming an ethical doctor'--which corresponded to the overarching PPD theme aims of communicative learning. Students and tutors emphasised the importance of the unique learning environment of PPD tutorials for nurturing personal development and the positive impact of the renewed assessment programme on learning. A theory-led approach to curriculum reform resulted in student engagement in the PPD curriculum and facilitated a change in student perspective about the epistemological foundation of medicine.

Joint angles during successful and unsuccessful tennis serves kinematics of tennis serve.

PubMed

Göktepe, Ayhan; Ak, Emre; Söğüt, Mustafa; Karabörk, Hakan; Korkusuz, Feza

2009-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the joint angle differences in successful and unsuccessful tennis serves of junior tennis players. Nine healthy junior tennis players (5 girls, 4 boys; mean age 11.8+/-0.8 years; height 153.6+/-7.2 cm; body mass index 42.3+/-4.1 kg; playing experience 6.2+/-1.5 years) volunteered to participate in this study. They were asked to perform tennis serves as fast as they can as if they were in an actual game. Successful and unsuccessful serves were recorded using two high speed cameras and then analyzed using Pictran software. Angle changes in pre-impact, impact and post-impact phases were compared. The results of paired sample t-tests revealed nosignificant differences between successful and unsuccessful tennis serves in all three phases. This study failed to show differences between successful and unsuccessful tennis serves in pre-impact, impact and post-impact phases. However, future research with more detailed analyses would be needed to reveal the possible changes in the joints while serving.

Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.

PubMed

Stephens, Philip A; Mason, Lucy R; Green, Rhys E; Gregory, Richard D; Sauer, John R; Alison, Jamie; Aunins, Ainars; Brotons, Lluís; Butchart, Stuart H M; Campedelli, Tommaso; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; Chylarecki, Przemysław; Crowe, Olivia; Elts, Jaanus; Escandell, Virginia; Foppen, Ruud P B; Heldbjerg, Henning; Herrando, Sergi; Husby, Magne; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lindström, Åke; Noble, David G; Paquet, Jean-Yves; Reif, Jiri; Sattler, Thomas; Szép, Tibor; Teufelbauer, Norbert; Trautmann, Sven; van Strien, Arco J; van Turnhout, Chris A M; Vorisek, Petr; Willis, Stephen G

2016-04-01

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Health risks of climate change: an assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies.

PubMed

Wardekker, J Arjan; de Jong, Arie; van Bree, Leendert; Turkenburg, Wim C; van der Sluijs, Jeroen P

2012-09-19

Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough 'order-of-magnitude' estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system's and society's capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are most appropriate. For climate related health effects for which rough risk estimates are available, 'robust decision-making' is recommended. For health effects with limited societal and policy relevance, we recommend focusing on no-regret measures. For highly relevant health effects, precautionary measures can be considered. This study indicated that analysing and characterising uncertainty by means of a typology can be a very useful approach for selection and prioritization of preferred adaptation policies to reduce future climate related health risks.

Future crop production threatened by extreme heat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siebert, Stefan; Ewert, Frank

2014-04-01

Heat is considered to be a major stress limiting crop growth and yields. While important findings on the impact of heat on crop yield have been made based on experiments in controlled environments, little is known about the effects under field conditions at larger scales. The study of Deryng et al (2014 Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures Environ. Res. Lett. 9 034011), analysing the impact of heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soya bean under climate change, represents an important contribution to this emerging research field. Uncertainties in the occurrence of heat stress under field conditions, plant responses to heat and appropriate adaptation measures still need further investigation.

Enhancing the relevance of new scenarios for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Ruijven, B. J.

2013-12-01

Over the past three decades, scenario analyses have occupied a central role in assessments of the potential impacts of climate change on natural and human systems at different scales during the 21st century. Here, we discuss the role and relevance of new scenarios using shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social-environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of new scenarios needing to be improved in order to enhance their usefulness for IAV studies: the ability to work coherently across spatial scales and adding indicators of importance to projections of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in addition to standard indicators of population and gross domestic product. This paper presents a research agenda to add income distribution, spatial population, human health projections, and governance indicators to the new scenarios.

DNA from lake sediments reveals long-term ecosystem changes after a biological invasion.

PubMed

Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Poulenard, Jérôme; Sabatier, Pierre; Messager, Erwan; Gielly, Ludovic; Leloup, Anouk; Etienne, David; Bakke, Jostein; Malet, Emmanuel; Fanget, Bernard; Støren, Eivind; Reyss, Jean-Louis; Taberlet, Pierre; Arnaud, Fabien

2018-05-01

What are the long-term consequences of invasive species? After invasion, how long do ecosystems require to reach a new equilibrium? Answering these questions requires long-term, high-resolution data that are vanishingly rare. We combined the analysis of environmental DNA extracted from a lake sediment core, coprophilous fungi, and sedimentological analyses to reconstruct 600 years of ecosystem dynamics on a sub-Antarctic island and to identify the impact of invasive rabbits. Plant communities remained stable from AD 1400 until the 1940s, when the DNA of invasive rabbits was detected in sediments. Rabbit detection corresponded to abrupt changes of plant communities, with a continuous decline of a dominant plant species. Furthermore, erosion rate abruptly increased with rabbit abundance. Rabbit impacts were very fast and were stronger than the effects of climate change during the 20th century. Lake sediments can allow an integrated temporal analysis of ecosystems, revealing the impact of invasive species over time and improving our understanding of underlying mechanisms.

Why choice of metric matters in public health analyses: a case study of the attribution of credit for the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in the US and other populations.

PubMed

Gouda, Hebe N; Critchley, Julia; Powles, John; Capewell, Simon

2012-01-28

Reasons for the widespread declines in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in high income countries are controversial. Here we explore how the type of metric chosen for the analyses of these declines affects the answer obtained. The analyses we reviewed were performed using IMPACT, a large Excel based model of the determinants of temporal change in mortality from CHD. Assessments of the decline in CHD mortality in the USA between 1980 and 2000 served as the central case study. Analyses based in the metric of number of deaths prevented attributed about half the decline to treatments (including preventive medications) and half to favourable shifts in risk factors. However, when mortality change was expressed in the metric of life-years-gained, the share attributed to risk factor change rose to 65%. This happened because risk factor changes were modelled as slowing disease progression, such that the hypothetical deaths averted resulted in longer average remaining lifetimes gained than the deaths averted by better treatments. This result was robust to a range of plausible assumptions on the relative effect sizes of changes in treatments and risk factors. Time-based metrics (such as life years) are generally preferable because they direct attention to the changes in the natural history of disease that are produced by changes in key health determinants. The life-years attached to each death averted will also weight deaths in a way that better reflects social preferences.

Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change

PubMed Central

Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid

2016-01-01

Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries. PMID:27600330

How Changes in Psychosocial Job Characteristics Impact Burnout in Nurses: A Longitudinal Analysis.

PubMed

Pisanti, Renato; van der Doef, Margot; Maes, Stan; Meier, Laurenz Linus; Lazzari, David; Violani, Cristiano

2016-01-01

The main aim of this longitudinal study was to test the Job Demand-Control-Support (JDCS) model and to analyze whether changes in psychosocial job characteristics are related to (changes in) burnout. Previous studies on the effects of JDCS variables on burnout dimensions have indicated that the iso-strain hypothesis (i.e., high job demands, low control, and low support additively predict high stress reactions) and the buffer hypotheses (i.e., high job control and/or social support is expected to moderate the negative impact of high demands on stress reactions) have hardly been examined concurrently in a longitudinal design; and that the effects of changes of psychosocial job variables on burnout dimensions have hardly been analyzed. This two wave study was carried out over a period of 14 months in a sample of 217 Italian nurses. Hierarchical regression analyses were used to test the cross lagged main and interactive effects of JDCS variables, and to analyse the across-time effects of changes in JDCS dimensions on burnout variables. The Time 1 job characteristics explained 2-8% of the variance in the Time 2 burnout dimensions, but no support for the additive, or the buffer hypothesis of the JDCS model was found. Changes in job characteristics explained an additional 3-20% of variance in the Time 2 burnout dimensions. Specifically, high levels of emotional exhaustion at Time 2 were explained by high levels of social support at Time 1, and unfavorable changes in demands, control, and support over time; high depersonalization at Time 2 was explained by high social support at time 1 and by an increase in demands over time; and high personal accomplishment at Time 2 was predicted by high demands, high control, interactive effect demands × control × social support, at Time 1, and by a decrease in demands over time. No reversed effects of burnout on work characteristics have been found. Our findings suggest that the work environment is subject to changes: the majority of employees experienced considerable changes in all job conditions over time. These changes impacted employee burnout. Limitations and implications of the study are discussed.

How Changes in Psychosocial Job Characteristics Impact Burnout in Nurses: A Longitudinal Analysis

PubMed Central

Pisanti, Renato; van der Doef, Margot; Maes, Stan; Meier, Laurenz Linus; Lazzari, David; Violani, Cristiano

2016-01-01

Aims: The main aim of this longitudinal study was to test the Job Demand-Control-Support (JDCS) model and to analyze whether changes in psychosocial job characteristics are related to (changes in) burnout. Background: Previous studies on the effects of JDCS variables on burnout dimensions have indicated that the iso-strain hypothesis (i.e., high job demands, low control, and low support additively predict high stress reactions) and the buffer hypotheses (i.e., high job control and/or social support is expected to moderate the negative impact of high demands on stress reactions) have hardly been examined concurrently in a longitudinal design; and that the effects of changes of psychosocial job variables on burnout dimensions have hardly been analyzed. Design: This two wave study was carried out over a period of 14 months in a sample of 217 Italian nurses. Method: Hierarchical regression analyses were used to test the cross lagged main and interactive effects of JDCS variables, and to analyse the across-time effects of changes in JDCS dimensions on burnout variables. Results: The Time 1 job characteristics explained 2–8% of the variance in the Time 2 burnout dimensions, but no support for the additive, or the buffer hypothesis of the JDCS model was found. Changes in job characteristics explained an additional 3–20% of variance in the Time 2 burnout dimensions. Specifically, high levels of emotional exhaustion at Time 2 were explained by high levels of social support at Time 1, and unfavorable changes in demands, control, and support over time; high depersonalization at Time 2 was explained by high social support at time 1 and by an increase in demands over time; and high personal accomplishment at Time 2 was predicted by high demands, high control, interactive effect demands × control × social support, at Time 1, and by a decrease in demands over time. No reversed effects of burnout on work characteristics have been found. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that the work environment is subject to changes: the majority of employees experienced considerable changes in all job conditions over time. These changes impacted employee burnout. Limitations and implications of the study are discussed. PMID:27507952

Effective population size dynamics reveal impacts of historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressure in African elephants.

PubMed

Okello, J B A; Wittemyer, G; Rasmussen, H B; Arctander, P; Nyakaana, S; Douglas-Hamilton, I; Siegismund, H R

2008-09-01

Two hundred years of elephant hunting for ivory, peaking in 1970-1980s, caused local extirpations and massive population declines across Africa. The resulting genetic impacts on surviving populations have not been studied, despite the importance of understanding the evolutionary repercussions of such human-mediated events on this keystone species. Using Bayesian coalescent-based genetic methods to evaluate time-specific changes in effective population size, we analysed genetic variation in 20 highly polymorphic microsatellite loci from 400 elephants inhabiting the greater Samburu-Laikipia region of northern Kenya. This area experienced a decline of between 80% and 90% in the last few decades when ivory harvesting was rampant. The most significant change in effective population size, however, occurred approximately 2500 years ago during a mid-Holocene period of climatic drying in tropical Africa. Contrary to expectations, detailed analyses of four contemporary age-based cohorts showed that the peak poaching epidemic in the 1970s caused detectable temporary genetic impacts, with genetic diversity rebounding as juveniles surviving the poaching era became reproductively mature. This study demonstrates the importance of climatic history in shaping the distribution and genetic history of a keystone species and highlights the utility of coalescent-based demographic approaches in unravelling ancestral demographic events despite a lack of ancient samples. Unique insights into the genetic signature of mid-Holocene climatic change in Africa and effects of recent poaching pressure on elephants are discussed.

Implementation of innovative attitudes and behaviour in primary health care by means of strategic communication: a 7-year follow-up.

PubMed

Morténius, Helena; Marklund, Bertil; Palm, Lars; Björkelund, Cecilia; Baigi, Amir

2012-06-01

To bridge the gap between theory and practice, methods are needed that promote a positive attitude to change among health care professionals and facilitate the incorporation of new research findings. In this context, communication plays a significant role. The aim of this study was to analyse primary care staff members' readiness to adopt new ways of thinking and willingness to change their work practices by means of strategic communication. An evaluative design was used to study a primary care staff cohort for 7 years. The study population comprised all primary care staff in a region of Sweden (n = 1206). The strategic communication encompassed managerial impact, planning and implementation of reflexive communication processes, in addition to activities in three established communication channels (oral, written and digital). A questionnaire was used, and bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were performed. A total of 846 individuals participated in the evaluation (70%). Strategic communication had a significant effect on staff members' new way of thinking (61%) and willingness to change daily work practices (33%). The communication channels had a significant synergy effect on the adoption of new ideas and willingness to change attitudes. Oral and digital communication had a significant impact on staff members' readiness to change. Strategic communication plays an important role in the process of creating innovative attitudes and behaviour among primary care professionals. The willingness to change attitudes enhances primary care staff's readiness to change everyday practices, thus facilitating the implementation of evidence-based care. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Inter-model variability in hydrological extremes projections for Amazonian sub-basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres Rodriguez, Daniel; Garofolo, Lucas; Lázaro de Siqueira Júnior, José; Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme; Tomasella, Javier

2014-05-01

Irreducible uncertainties due to knowledge's limitations, chaotic nature of climate system and human decision-making process drive uncertainties in Climate Change projections. Such uncertainties affect the impact studies, mainly when associated to extreme events, and difficult the decision-making process aimed at mitigation and adaptation. However, these uncertainties allow the possibility to develop exploratory analyses on system's vulnerability to different sceneries. The use of different climate model's projections allows to aboard uncertainties issues allowing the use of multiple runs to explore a wide range of potential impacts and its implications for potential vulnerabilities. Statistical approaches for analyses of extreme values are usually based on stationarity assumptions. However, nonstationarity is relevant at the time scales considered for extreme value analyses and could have great implications in dynamic complex systems, mainly under climate change transformations. Because this, it is required to consider the nonstationarity in the statistical distribution parameters. We carried out a study of the dispersion in hydrological extremes projections using climate change projections from several climate models to feed the Distributed Hydrological Model of the National Institute for Spatial Research, MHD-INPE, applied in Amazonian sub-basins. This model is a large-scale hydrological model that uses a TopModel approach to solve runoff generation processes at the grid-cell scale. MHD-INPE model was calibrated for 1970-1990 using observed meteorological data and comparing observed and simulated discharges by using several performance coeficients. Hydrological Model integrations were performed for present historical time (1970-1990) and for future period (2010-2100). Because climate models simulate the variability of the climate system in statistical terms rather than reproduce the historical behavior of climate variables, the performances of the model's runs during the historical period, when feed with climate model data, were tested using descriptors of the Flow Duration Curves. The analyses of projected extreme values were carried out considering the nonstationarity of the GEV distribution parameters and compared with extremes events in present time. Results show inter-model variability in a broad dispersion on projected extreme's values. Such dispersion implies different degrees of socio-economic impacts associated to extreme hydrological events. Despite the no existence of one optimum result, this variability allows the analyses of adaptation strategies and its potential vulnerabilities.

Impacts of historic and projected land-cover, land-use, and land-management change on carbon and water fluxes: The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, D. M.; Lombardozzi, D. L.; Lawrence, P.; Hurtt, G. C.

2017-12-01

Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to intensify to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the broad question of impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) as well as more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, and data requirements in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. LUMIP is multi-faceted and aims to advance our understanding of land-use change from several perspectives. In particular, LUMIP includes a factorial set of land-only simulations that differ from each other with respect to the specific treatment of land use or land management (e.g., irrigation active or not, crop fertilization active or not, wood harvest on or not), or in terms of prescribed climate. This factorial series of experiments serves several purposes and is designed to provide a detailed assessment of how the specification of land-cover change and land management affects the carbon, water, and energy cycle response to land-use change. The potential analyses that are possible through this set of experiments are vast. For example, comparing a control experiment with all land management active to an experiment with no irrigation allows a multi-model assessment of whether or not the increasing use of irrigation during the 20th century is likely to have significantly altered trends of regional water and energy fluxes (and therefore climate) and/or crop yield and carbon fluxes in agricultural regions. Here, we will present preliminary results from the factorial set of experiments utilizing the Community Land Model (CLM5). The analyses presented here will help guide multi-model analyses once the full set of LUMIP simulations are available.

Impact of external forcing on simulated hydroclimate from interannual to multicentennial timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roldán, Pedro; Fidel González-Rouco, Jesús; Melo-Aguilar, Camilo

2017-04-01

During the last millennium, external forcing experienced important changes in different timescales. It has been demostrated that these changes had an impact on climate. In particular, changes in solar activity, volcanic eruptions and emissions of greenhouse gases are related to short-term and long-term changes in global temperatures, with situations of higher total external forcing generally related with higher global and hemispherical temperatures, and conversely with situations of lower forcing. This connection is clearly observed in climate simulations from different models and in proxy-based reconstructions. The changes in external forcing can also explain certain changes in atmospheric dynamics and hydroclimate, although in this case it is in general more difficult to trace causality arguments. Analyses based on simulations from two different models (ECHO-G and CESM-LME) have been performed, to assess the impact of external forcing on climate in timescales ranging from interannual to multicentennial. Various climatic variables have been analysed, including temperature, sea level pressure, surface wind, precipitation and soil moisture. For interannual timescales, composites have been defined with the years before and after the main volcanic eruptions of the last millennium as well as the minima of solar activity during this period. For longer timescales, a Principal Component analysis has been performed, to try to separate the signal of external forcing from that of internal variability. This has been done for the whole millennium and for the pre-industrial period, to assess the difference between natural and anthropogenic forcing. For multicentennial timescales, composites for the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ca. 950-1250), the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1450-1850) and the 20th Century have been compared. These three periods were respectively characterised by higher, lower and higher forcing. This allows to assess the contribution of external forcing to the evolution of climate over longer time intervals. These analyses have shown that external forcing is an important factor in the evolution of the simulated hydroclimate of the last millennium. In the short-term, it has been observed that volcanic eruptions and other situations of extreme forcing significantly alter the global precipitation in the subsequent years. In the long-term, variations of external forcing can be related to changes in atmospheric dynamics and in hydroclimate. However, this impact is not homogeneously distributed. There are areas where hydroclimate is mainly influenced by the external forcing and other areas more influenced by internal variability, with spatial decorrelation being higher in precipitation or drought related variables than in temperature. The regional sensitivity to external forcing of hydroclimate is model and, to a lesser degree, simulation dependent.

Climate Change Research - What Do We Need Really?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rama Chandra Prasad, P.

2015-01-01

This research note focuses on the current climate change research scenario and discusses primarily what is required in the present global climate change conditions. Most of the climate change research and models predict adverse future conditions that have to be faced by humanity, with less emphasis on mitigation measures. Moreover, research ends as reports on the shelves of scientists and researchers and as publications in journals. At this juncture the major focus should be on research that helps in reducing the impact rather than on analysing future scenarios of climate change using different models. The article raises several questions and suggestions regards climate change research and lays emphasis on what we really need from climate change researchers.

Human impacts and changes in the coastal waters of south China.

PubMed

Wang, Linlin; Li, Qiang; Bi, Hongsheng; Mao, Xian-Zhong

2016-08-15

Human impact on the environment remains at the center of the debate on global environmental change. Using the Hong Kong-Shenzhen corridor in south China as an example, we present evidence that rapid urbanization and economic development in coastal areas were the dominant factors causing rapid changes in coastal waters. From 1990 to 2012, coastal seawater temperature increased ~0.060°C per year, sea level rose 4.4mm per year and pH decreased from 8.2 to 7.7, much faster than global averages. In the same period, there were exponential increases in the local population, gross domestic product and land fill area. Empirical analyses suggest that the large increase in the population affected local temperature, and economic development had a major impact on local pH. Results also show that pH and temperature were significantly correlated with local sea level rise, but pH had more predictive power, suggesting it could be considered a predictor for changes in local sea level. We conclude that human activities could significantly exacerbate local environmental changes which should be considered in predictive models and future development plans in coastal areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Direct impacts of climatic warming on heat stress in endothermic species: seabirds as bioindicators of changing thermoregulatory constraints.

PubMed

Oswald, Stephen A; Arnold, Jennifer M

2012-06-01

There is now abundant evidence that contemporary climatic change has indirectly affected a wide-range of species by changing trophic interactions, competition, epidemiology and habitat. However, direct physiological impacts of changing climates are rarely reported for endothermic species, despite being commonly reported for ectotherms. We review the evidence for changing physiological constraints on endothermic vertebrates at high temperatures, integrating theoretical and empirical perspectives on the morphology, physiology and behavior of marine birds. Potential for increasing heat stress exposure depends on changes in multiple environmental variables, not just air temperature, as well as organism-specific morphology, physiology and behavior. Endotherms breeding at high latitudes are vulnerable to the forecast, extensive temperature changes because of the adaptations they possess to minimize heat loss. Low-latitude species will also be challenged as they currently live close to their thermal limits and will likely suffer future water shortages. Small, highly-active species, particularly aerial foragers, are acutely vulnerable as they are least able to dissipate heat at high temperatures. Overall, direct physiological impacts of climatic change appear underrepresented in the published literature, but available data suggest they have much potential to shape behavior, morphology and distribution of endothermic species. Coincidence between future heat stress events and other energetic constraints on endotherms remains largely unexplored but will be key in determining the physiological impacts of climatic change. Multi-scale, biophysical modeling, informed by experiments that quantify thermoregulatory responses of endotherms to heat stress, is an essential precursor to urgently-needed analyses at the population or species level. © 2012 ISZS, Blackwell Publishing and IOZ/CAS.

It is getting hotter in here: determining and projecting the impacts of global environmental change on drylands

PubMed Central

Maestre, Fernando T.; Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Quero, José L.

2012-01-01

Drylands occupy large portions of the Earth, and are a key terrestrial biome from the socio-ecological point of view. In spite of their extent and importance, the impacts of global environmental change on them remain poorly understood. In this introduction, we review some of the main expected impacts of global change in drylands, quantify research efforts on the topic, and highlight how the articles included in this theme issue contribute to fill current gaps in our knowledge. Our literature analyses identify key under-studied areas that need more research (e.g. countries such as Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Somalia, and deserts such as the Thar, Kavir and Taklamakan), and indicate that most global change research carried out to date in drylands has been done on a unidisciplinary basis. The contributions included here use a wide array of organisms (from micro-organisms to humans), spatial scales (from local to global) and topics (from plant demography to poverty alleviation) to examine key issues to the socio-ecological impacts of global change in drylands. These papers highlight the complexities and difficulties associated with the prediction of such impacts. They also identify the increased use of long-term experiments and multidisciplinary approaches as priority areas for future dryland research. Major advances in our ability to predict and understand global change impacts on drylands can be achieved by explicitly considering how the responses of individuals, populations and communities will in turn affect ecosystem services. Future research should explore linkages between these responses and their effects on water and climate, as well as the provisioning of services for human development and well-being. PMID:23045705

It is getting hotter in here: determining and projecting the impacts of global environmental change on drylands.

PubMed

Maestre, Fernando T; Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Quero, José L

2012-11-19

Drylands occupy large portions of the Earth, and are a key terrestrial biome from the socio-ecological point of view. In spite of their extent and importance, the impacts of global environmental change on them remain poorly understood. In this introduction, we review some of the main expected impacts of global change in drylands, quantify research efforts on the topic, and highlight how the articles included in this theme issue contribute to fill current gaps in our knowledge. Our literature analyses identify key under-studied areas that need more research (e.g. countries such as Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Somalia, and deserts such as the Thar, Kavir and Taklamakan), and indicate that most global change research carried out to date in drylands has been done on a unidisciplinary basis. The contributions included here use a wide array of organisms (from micro-organisms to humans), spatial scales (from local to global) and topics (from plant demography to poverty alleviation) to examine key issues to the socio-ecological impacts of global change in drylands. These papers highlight the complexities and difficulties associated with the prediction of such impacts. They also identify the increased use of long-term experiments and multidisciplinary approaches as priority areas for future dryland research. Major advances in our ability to predict and understand global change impacts on drylands can be achieved by explicitly considering how the responses of individuals, populations and communities will in turn affect ecosystem services. Future research should explore linkages between these responses and their effects on water and climate, as well as the provisioning of services for human development and well-being.

Higher energy prices are associated with diminished resources, performance and safety in Australian ambulance systems.

PubMed

Brown, Lawrence H; Chaiechi, Taha; Buettner, Petra G; Canyon, Deon V; Crawford, J Mac; Judd, Jenni

2013-02-01

To evaluate the impact of changing energy prices on Australian ambulance systems. Generalised estimating equations were used to analyse contemporaneous and lagged relationships between changes in energy prices and ambulance system performance measures in all Australian State/Territory ambulance systems for the years 2000-2010. Measures included: expenditures per response; labour-to-total expenditure ratio; full-time equivalent employees (FTE) per 10,000 responses; average salary; median and 90th percentile response time; and injury compensation claims. Energy price data included State average diesel price, State average electricity price, and world crude oil price. Changes in diesel prices were inversely associated with changes in salaries, and positively associated with changes in ambulance response times; changes in oil prices were also inversely associated with changes in salaries, as well with staffing levels and expenditures per ambulance response. Changes in electricity prices were positively associated with changes in expenditures per response and changes in salaries; they were also positively associated with changes in injury compensation claims per 100 FTE. Changes in energy prices are associated with changes in Australian ambulance systems' resource, performance and safety characteristics in ways that could affect both patients and personnel. Further research is needed to explore the mechanisms of, and strategies for mitigating, these impacts. The impacts of energy prices on other aspects of the health system should also be investigated. © 2013 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2013 Public Health Association of Australia.

The impact of initial and recurrent cockpit resource management training on attitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Irwin, Cheryl M.

1991-01-01

It is noted that previous analyses of the boomerang effect (attitude change as a result of training in the direction opposite of that intended) in aviation training environments were limited in that each subscale of the cockpit management attitudes questionnaire (CMAQ) was examined independently. This study develops and utilizes a new algorithm for grouping subjects such that a global attitude change score is derived from the attitude change scores on each CMAQ subscale. By evaluating global attitude change in addition to the more specific attitude change on each subscale, it might be possible to better comprehend the effects of crew resource management training on pilot attitudes.

Private health insurance: New measures of a complex and changing industry

PubMed Central

Arnett, Ross H.; Trapnell, Gordon R.

1984-01-01

Private health insurance benefit payments are an integral component of estimates of national health expenditures. Recent analyses indicate that the insurance industry has undergone significant changes since the mid-1970's. As a result of these study findings and corresponding changes to estimating techniques, private health insurance estimates have been revised upward. This has had a major impact on national health expenditure estimates. This article describes the changes that have occurred in the industry, discusses some of the implications of those changes, presents a new methodology to measure private health insurance and the resulting estimate levels, and then examines concepts that underpin these estimates. PMID:10310950

Accounting for Epistemic Uncertainty in Mission Supportability Assessment: A Necessary Step in Understanding Risk and Logistics Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Owens, Andrew; De Weck, Olivier L.; Stromgren, Chel; Goodliff, Kandyce; Cirillo, William

2017-01-01

Future crewed missions to Mars present a maintenance logistics challenge that is unprecedented in human spaceflight. Mission endurance – defined as the time between resupply opportunities – will be significantly longer than previous missions, and therefore logistics planning horizons are longer and the impact of uncertainty is magnified. Maintenance logistics forecasting typically assumes that component failure rates are deterministically known and uses them to represent aleatory uncertainty, or uncertainty that is inherent to the process being examined. However, failure rates cannot be directly measured; rather, they are estimated based on similarity to other components or statistical analysis of observed failures. As a result, epistemic uncertainty – that is, uncertainty in knowledge of the process – exists in failure rate estimates that must be accounted for. Analyses that neglect epistemic uncertainty tend to significantly underestimate risk. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced via operational experience; for example, the International Space Station (ISS) failure rate estimates are refined using a Bayesian update process. However, design changes may re-introduce epistemic uncertainty. Thus, there is a tradeoff between changing a design to reduce failure rates and operating a fixed design to reduce uncertainty. This paper examines the impact of epistemic uncertainty on maintenance logistics requirements for future Mars missions, using data from the ISS Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLS) as a baseline for a case study. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the impact of variations in failure rate estimates and epistemic uncertainty on spares mass. The results of these analyses and their implications for future system design and mission planning are discussed.

Quantitative analysis of the impacts of terrestrial environmental factors on precipitation variation over the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone in Coastal Southwest China

PubMed Central

Zhao, Yinjun; Deng, Qiyu; Lin, Qing; Cai, Chunting

2017-01-01

Taking the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone as the study area, this paper utilizes the geographical detector model to quantify the feedback effects from the terrestrial environment on precipitation variation from 1985 to 2010 with a comprehensive consideration of natural factors (forest coverage rate, vegetation type, terrain, terrestrial ecosystem types, land use and land cover change) and social factors (population density, farmland rate, GDP and urbanization rate). First, we found that the precipitation trend rate in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone is between −47 and 96 mm/10a. Second, forest coverage rate change (FCRC), urbanization rate change (URC), GDP change (GDPC) and population density change (PDC) have a larger contribution to precipitation change through land-surface feedback, which makes them the leading factors. Third, the human element is found to primarily account for the precipitation changes in this region, as humans are the active media linking and enhancing these impact factors. Finally, it can be concluded that the interaction of impact factor pairs has a significant effect compared to the corresponding single factor on precipitation changes. The geographical detector model offers an analytical framework to reveal the terrestrial factors affecting the precipitation change, which gives direction for future work on regional climate modeling and analyses. PMID:28294123

Comparison of the impacts of urban development and climate change on exposing European cities to pluvial flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skougaard Kaspersen, Per; Høegh Ravn, Nanna; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Madsen, Henrik; Drews, Martin

2017-08-01

The economic and human consequences of extreme precipitation and the related flooding of urban areas have increased rapidly over the past decades. Some of the key factors that affect the risks to urban areas include climate change, the densification of assets within cities and the general expansion of urban areas. In this paper, we examine and compare quantitatively the impact of climate change and recent urban development patterns on the exposure of four European cities to pluvial flooding. In particular, we investigate the degree to which pluvial floods of varying severity and in different geographical locations are influenced to the same extent by changes in urban land cover and climate change. We have selected the European cities of Odense, Vienna, Strasbourg and Nice for analyses to represent different climatic conditions, trends in urban development and topographical characteristics. We develop and apply a combined remote-sensing and flood-modelling approach to simulate the extent of pluvial flooding for a range of extreme precipitation events for historical (1984) and present-day (2014) urban land cover and for two climate-change scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Changes in urban land cover are estimated using Landsat satellite imagery for the period 1984-2014. We combine the remote-sensing analyses with regionally downscaled estimates of precipitation extremes of current and expected future climate to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood-hazard assessments. The individual and combined impacts of urban development and climate change are quantified by examining the variations in flooding between the different simulations along with the corresponding uncertainties. In addition, two different assumptions are examined with regards to the development of the capacity of the urban drainage system in response to urban development and climate change. In the stationary approach, the capacity resembles present-day design, while it is updated in the evolutionary approach to correspond to changes in imperviousness and precipitation intensities due to urban development and climate change respectively. For all four cities, we find an increase in flood exposure corresponding to an observed absolute growth in impervious surfaces of 7-12 % during the past 30 years of urban development. Similarly, we find that climate change increases exposure to pluvial flooding under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The relative importance of urban development and climate change on flood exposure varies considerably between the cities. For Odense, the impact of urban development is comparable to that of climate change under an RCP 8.5 scenario (2081-2100), while for Vienna and Strasbourg it is comparable to the impacts of an RCP 4.5 scenario. For Nice, climate change dominates urban development as the primary driver of changes in exposure to flooding. The variation between geographical locations is caused by differences in soil infiltration properties, historical trends in urban development and the projected regional impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation. Developing the capacity of the urban drainage system in relation to urban development is found to be an effective adaptation measure as it fully compensates for the increase in run-off caused by additional sealed surfaces. On the other hand, updating the drainage system according to changes in precipitation intensities caused by climate change only marginally reduces flooding for the most extreme events.

Results from the BRACE 1.5 study: Climate change impacts of 1.5 C and 2 C warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Anderson, B.; Monaghan, A. J.; Ren, X.; Sanderson, B.; Tebaldi, C.

2017-12-01

In 2015, 195 countries negotiated the Paris Agreement on climate change, which set long-term goals of limiting global mean warming to well below 2 C and possibly 1.5 C. This event stimulated substantial scientific interest in climate outcomes and impacts on society associated with those levels of warming. Recently, the first set of global climate model simulations explicitly designed to meet those targets were undertaken with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for use by the research community (Sanderson et al, accepted). The BRACE 1.5 project models societal impacts from these climate outcomes, combined with assumptions about future socioeconomic conditions according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. These analyses build on a recently completed study of the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE), published as a set of 20 papers in Climatic Change, which examined the difference in impacts between two higher scenarios resulting in about 2.5 C and 3.7 C warming by late this century. BRACE 1.5 consists of a set of six papers to be submitted to a special collection in Environmental Research Letters that takes a similar approach but focuses on impacts at 1.5 and 2 C warming. We ask whether impacts differ substantially between the two climate scenarios, accounting for uncertainty in climate outcomes through the use of initial condition ensembles of CESM simulations, and in societal conditions by using alternative SSP-based development pathways. Impact assessment focuses on the health and agricultural sectors; modeling approaches include the use of a global mutli-region CGE model for economic analysis, both a process-based and an empirical crop model, a model of spatial population change, a model of climatic suitability for the aedes aegypti mosquito, and an epidemiological model of heat-related mortality. A methodological analysis also evaluates the use of climate model emulation techniques for providing climate information sufficient to support impact assessment in low warming scenarios.

Assessing the influence of Environmental Impact Assessments on science and policy: an analysis of the Three Gorges Project.

PubMed

Tullos, Desiree

2009-07-01

The need to understand and minimize negative environmental outcomes associated with large dams has both contributed to and benefited from the introduction and subsequent improvements in the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process. However, several limitations in the EIA process remain, including those associated with the uncertainty and significance of impact projections. These limitations are directly related to the feedback between science and policy, with information gaps in scientific understanding discovered through the EIA process contributing valuable recommendations on critical focus areas for prioritizing and funding research within the fields of ecological conservation and river engineering. This paper presents an analysis of the EIA process for the Three Gorges Project (TGP) in China as a case study for evaluating this feedback between the EIA and science and policy. For one of the best-studied public development projects in the world, this paper presents an investigation into whether patterns exist between the scientific interest (via number of publications) in environmental impacts and (a) the identification of impacts as uncertain or priority by the EIA, (b) decisions or political events associated with the dam, and (c) impact type. This analysis includes the compilation of literature on TGP, characterization of ecosystem interactions and responses to TGP through a hierarchy of impacts, coding of EIA impacts as "uncertain" impacts that require additional study and "priority" impacts that have particularly high significance, mapping of an event chronology to relate policies, institutional changes, and decisions about TGP as "events" that could influence the focus and intensity of scientific investigation, and analysis of the number of publications by impact type and order within the impact hierarchy. From these analyses, it appears that the availability and consistency of scientific information limit the accuracy of environmental impact projections. These analyses also suggest a lack of direct feedback between the EIA process and emerging science, as indicated by the failure of literature to focus on issues related to the design and management of TGP, ultimately challenging the environmental sustainability of the project. While the EIA process has enormous potential for improving both the basic sciences and the planning and sustainability of hydrodevelopment, important institutional changes need to occur for this potential to be realized. This paper concludes with recommendations about those institutional changes needed to improve the feedback between the science and policy, and ultimately the environmental sustainability, of large dams.

Impact of multisectoral health determinants on child mortality 1980-2010: An analysis by country baseline mortality.

PubMed

Cohen, Robert L; Murray, John; Jack, Susan; Arscott-Mills, Sharon; Verardi, Vincenzo

2017-01-01

Some health determinants require relatively stronger health system capacity and socioeconomic development than others to impact child mortality. Few quantitative analyses have analyzed how the impact of health determinants varies by mortality level. 149 low- and middle-income countries were stratified into high, moderate, low, and very low baseline levels of child mortality in 1990. Data for 52 health determinants were collected for these countries for 1980-2010. To quantify how changes in health determinants were associated with mortality decline, univariable and multivariable regression models were constructed. An advanced statistical technique that is new for child mortality analyses-MM-estimation with first differences and country clustering-controlled for outliers, fixed effects, and variation across decades. Some health determinants (immunizations, education) were consistently associated with child mortality reduction across all mortality levels. Others (staff availability, skilled birth attendance, fertility, water and sanitation) were associated with child mortality reduction mainly in low or very low mortality settings. The findings indicate that the impact of some health determinants on child mortality was only apparent with stronger health systems, public infrastructure and levels of socioeconomic development, whereas the impact of other determinants was apparent at all stages of development. Multisectoral progress was essential to mortality reduction at all baseline mortality levels. Policy-makers can use such analyses to direct investments in health and non-health sectors and to set five-year child mortality targets appropriate for their baseline mortality levels and local context.

Plants and climate change: complexities and surprises.

PubMed

Parmesan, Camille; Hanley, Mick E

2015-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) will influence all aspects of plant biology over coming decades. Many changes in wild species have already been well-documented as a result of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, warming climate and changing precipitation regimes. A wealth of available data has allowed the use of meta-analyses to examine plant-climate interactions on more sophisticated levels than before. These analyses have revealed major differences in plant response among groups, e.g. with respect to functional traits, taxonomy, life-history and provenance. Interestingly, these meta-analyses have also exposed unexpected mismatches between theory, experimental, and observational studies. We reviewed the literature on species' responses to ACC, finding ∼42 % of 4000 species studied globally are plants (primarily terrestrial). We review impacts on phenology, distributions, ecophysiology, regeneration biology, plant-plant and plant-herbivore interactions, and the roles of plasticity and evolution. We focused on apparent deviations from expectation, and highlighted cases where more sophisticated analyses revealed that unexpected changes were, in fact, responses to ACC. We found that conventionally expected responses are generally well-understood, and that it is the aberrant responses that are now yielding greater insight into current and possible future impacts of ACC. We argue that inconclusive, unexpected, or counter-intuitive results should be embraced in order to understand apparent disconnects between theory, prediction, and observation. We highlight prime examples from the collection of papers in this Special Issue, as well as general literature. We found use of plant functional groupings/traits had mixed success, but that some underutilized approaches, such as Grime's C/S/R strategies, when incorporated, have improved understanding of observed responses. Despite inherent difficulties, we highlight the need for ecologists to conduct community-level experiments in systems that replicate multiple aspects of ACC. Specifically, we call for development of coordinating experiments across networks of field sites, both natural and man-made. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

What Happens to Patterns of Food Consumption when Food Prices Change? Evidence from A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Food Price Elasticities Globally.

PubMed

Cornelsen, Laura; Green, Rosemary; Turner, Rachel; Dangour, Alan D; Shankar, Bhavani; Mazzocchi, Mario; Smith, Richard D

2015-12-01

Recent years have seen considerable interest in examining the impact of food prices on food consumption and subsequent health consequences. Fiscal policies targeting the relative price of unhealthy foods are frequently put forward as ways to address the obesity epidemic. Conversely, various food subsidy interventions are used in attempts to reduce levels of under-nutrition. Information on price elasticities is essential for understanding how such changes in food prices affect food consumption. It is crucial to know not only own-price elasticities but also cross-price elasticities, as food substitution patterns may have significant implications for policy recommendations. While own-price elasticities are common in analyses of the impact of food price changes on health, cross-price effects, even though generally acknowledged, are much less frequently included in analyses, especially in the public health literature. This article systematically reviews the global evidence on cross-price elasticities and provides combined estimates for seven food groups in low-income, middle-income and high-income countries alongside previously estimated own-price elasticities. Changes in food prices had the largest own-price effects in low-income countries. Cross-price effects were more varied and depending on country income level were found to be reinforcing, undermining or alleviating own-price effects. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Three Waves of International Student Mobility (1999-2020)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Choudaha, Rahul

2017-01-01

This article analyses the changes in international student mobility from the lens of three overlapping waves spread over seven years between 1999 and 2020. Here a wave is defined by the key events and trends impacting international student mobility within temporal periods. Wave I was shaped by the terrorist attacks of 2001 and enrolment of…

Preventing Road Rage by Modelling the Car-following and the Safety Distance Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lan, Si; Fang, Ni; Zhao, Huanming; Ye, Shiqi

2017-11-01

Starting from the different behaviours of the driver’s lane change, the car-following model based on the distance and speed and the safety distance model are established in this paper, so as to analyse the impact on traffic flow and safety, helping solve the phenomenon of road anger.

Implementing a Strategy Awareness Raising Programme: Strategy Changes and Feedback

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blanco, Maria; Pino, Margarita; Rodriguez, Beatriz

2010-01-01

This article reports on a collaborative action research study carried out on three groups of Spanish beginners during the implementation of a strategy awareness raising programme (SAR). The objective was to analyse the impact of the SAR programme on the students' learning process in three main areas: strategy awareness, strategy use in learning…

Integrated watershed analysis: adapting to changing times

Treesearch

Gordon H. Reeves

2013-01-01

Resource managers are increasingly required to conduct integrated analyses of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems before undertaking any activities. Th ere are a number of research studies on the impacts of management actions on these ecosystems, as well as a growing body of knowledge about ecological processes that aff ect them, particularly aquatic ecosystems, which...

Study of the Incentive Program for Washington's National Board Certified Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Plecki, Margaret L.; Elfers, Ana M.; St. John, Elise; Finster, Matthew; Emry, Terese; Nishida, Nasue; Harmon, Jeanne

2010-01-01

This study examines the impact of Washington state's incentives for teachers to attain National Board Certification and to work in challenging schools. Using surveys and secondary analyses of state databases, we examine the workforce both prior to and following recent changes in the incentive program. The study considers the nature of National…

Impact of deforestation on local precipitation patterns over the Da River basin, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghileri, Daniela; Spartà, Daniele; Castelletti, Andrea; Boschetti, Mirco

2014-05-01

Change in land cover, e.g. from forest to bare soil, might severely impact the hydrological cycle at the river basin scale by altering the balance between rainfall and evaporation, ultimately affecting streamflow dynamics. These changes generally occur over decades, but they might be much more rapid in developing countries, where economic growth and growing population may cause abrupt changes in landscape and ecosystem. Detecting, analysing and modelling these changes is an essential step to design mitigation strategies and adaptation plans, balancing economic development and ecosystem protection. In this work we investigate the impact of land cover changes on the water cycle in the Da River basin, Vietnam. More precisely, the objective is to evaluate the interlink between deforestation and precipitation. The case study is particularly interesting because Vietnam is one of the world fastest growing economies and natural resources have been considerably exploited to support after-war development. Vietnam has the second highest rate of deforestation of primary forests in the world, second to only Nigeria (FAO 2005), with associated problems like abrupt change in run-off, erosion, sediment transport and flash floods. We performed land cover evaluation by combining literature information and Remote Sensing techniques, using Landsat images. We then analysed time series of precipitation observed on the period 1960-2011 in several stations located in the catchment area. We used multiple trend detection techniques, both state-of-the-art (e.g., Linear regression and Mann-Kendall) and novel trend detection techniques (Moving Average on Shifting Horizon), to investigate trends in seasonal pattern of precipitation. Results suggest that deforestation may induce a negative trend in the precipitation volume. The effect is mainly recognizable at the beginning and at the end of the monsoon season, when the local mechanisms of precipitation formation prevail over the large scale ones.

The evolution of orbit orientation and encephalization in the Carnivora (Mammalia)

PubMed Central

Finarelli, John A; Goswami, Anjali

2009-01-01

Evolutionary change in encephalization within and across mammalian clades is well-studied, yet relatively few comparative analyses attempt to quantify the impact of evolutionary change in relative brain size on cranial morphology. Because of the proximity of the braincase to the orbits, and the inter-relationships among ecology, sensory systems and neuroanatomy, a relationship has been hypothesized between orbit orientation and encephalization for mammals. Here, we tested this hypothesis in 68 fossil and living species of the mammalian order Carnivora, comparing orbit orientation angles (convergence and frontation) to skull length and encephalization. No significant correlations were observed between skull length and orbit orientation when all taxa were analysed. Significant correlations were observed between encephalization and orbit orientation; however, these were restricted to the families Felidae and Canidae. Encephalization is positively correlated with frontation in both families and negatively correlated with convergence in canids. These results indicate that no universal relationship exists between encephalization and orbit orientation for Carnivora. Braincase expansion impacts orbit orientation in specific carnivoran clades, the nature of which is idiosyncratic to the clade itself. PMID:19438762

Sustainability analysis of bioenergy based land use change under climate change and variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raj, C.; Chaubey, I.; Brouder, S. M.; Bowling, L. C.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Frankenberger, J.; Goforth, R. R.; Gramig, B. M.; Volenec, J. J.

2014-12-01

Sustainability analyses of futuristic plausible land use and climate change scenarios are critical in making watershed-scale decisions for simultaneous improvement of food, energy and water management. Bioenergy production targets for the US are anticipated to impact farming practices through the introduction of fast growing and high yielding perennial grasses/trees, and use of crop residues as bioenergy feedstocks. These land use/land management changes raise concern over potential environmental impacts of bioenergy crop production scenarios, both in terms of water availability and water quality; impacts that may be exacerbated by climate variability and change. The objective of the study was to assess environmental, economic and biodiversity sustainability of plausible bioenergy scenarios for two watersheds in Midwest US under changing climate scenarios. The study considers fourteen sustainability indicators under nine climate change scenarios from World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). The distributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate perennial bioenergy crops such as Miscanthus and switchgrass, and corn stover removal at various removal rates and their impacts on hydrology and water quality. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) developed to evaluate stream fish response to hydrology and water quality changes associated with land use change were used to quantify biodiversity sustainability of various bioenergy scenarios. The watershed-scale sustainability analysis was done in the St. Joseph River watershed located in Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio; and the Wildcat Creek watershed, located in Indiana. The results indicate streamflow reduction at watershed outlet with increased evapotranspiration demands for high-yielding perennial grasses. Bioenergy crops in general improved in-stream water quality compared to conventional cropping systems (maize-soybean). Water quality benefits due to land use change were generally greater than the effects of climate change variability.

The impact of cage ventilation on rats housed in IVC systems.

PubMed

Krohn, Thomas C; Hansen, Axel Kornerup; Dragsted, Nils

2003-04-01

Today the use of individually ventilated cage systems (IVC systems) is common, especially for housing transgenic rodents. Typically, in each cage a ventilation rate of 40 to 50 air changes per hour is applied, but in some systems even up to 120 air changes per hour is applied. To reach this rate, the air is blown into the cage at a relatively high speed. However, at the animal's level most systems ventilate with an air speed of approximately 0.2 m/s. In the present paper, two studies were conducted, one analysing whether an air speed below 0.2 m/s or just above 0.5 m/s affects the rats, and another study analysing whether air changes of 50, 80 and 120 times per hour affect the rats. In both studies, monitoring of preferences as well as physiological parameters such as heart rate and blood pressure, was used to show the ability of the animals to register the different parameters and to avoid them if possible. Air speeds inside the cage of as high as 0.5 m/s could not be shown to affect the rats, while the number of air changes in each cage should be kept below 80 times per hour to avoid impacts on physiology (heart rate and systolic blood pressure). Also the rats prefer cages with air changes below 80 times per hour if they have the opportunity of choosing, as shown in the preference test.

Minimal clinically important difference in the fibromyalgia impact questionnaire.

PubMed

Bennett, Robert M; Bushmakin, Andrew G; Cappelleri, Joseph C; Zlateva, Gergana; Sadosky, Alesia B

2009-06-01

The Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ) is a disease-specific composite instrument that measures the effect of problems experienced by patients with fibromyalgia (FM). Utilization of the FIQ in measuring changes due to interventions in FM requires derivation of a clinically meaningful change for that instrument. Analyses were conducted to estimate the minimal clinically important difference (MCID), and to propose FIQ severity categories. Data from 3 similarly designed, 3-month placebo-controlled, clinical treatment trials of pregabalin 300, 450, and 600 mg/day in patients with FM were modeled to estimate the change in the mean FIQ total and stiffness items corresponding to each category on the Patient Global Impression of Change. FIQ severity categories were modeled and determined using established pain severity cutpoints as an anchor. A total of 2228 patients, mean age 49 years, 93% women, with a mean baseline FIQ total score of 62 were treated in the 3 studies. Estimated MCID on a given measure were similar across the studies. In a pooled analysis the estimated MCID (95% confidence interval) was 14% (13; 15) and for FIQ stiffness it was 13% (12; 14). In the severity analysis a FIQ total score from 0 to <39 was found to represent a mild effect, >or= 39 to <59 a moderate effect, and >or=59 to 100 a severe effect. The analysis indicates that a 14% change in the FIQ total score is clinically relevant, and results of these analyses should enhance the clinical utility of the FIQ in research and practice.

Benthic macroinvertebrates and the use of stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) in the impact assessment of peatland use on boreal stream ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieminen, Mika L.; Daza Secco, Emmanuela; Nykänen, Hannu; Meissner, Kristian

2013-04-01

Stable isotope analysis (SIA) can provide insights into carbon flow dynamics and trophic positions of consumers in food webs. SIA is used in this study, where we assess the possible changes in the basal resources of Finnish boreal stream ecosystems and differences in the impact of two forms of peatland use, forestry and peat mining. About 30% of the total land area of Finland is classified as peatland, of which about 55% has been drained for forestry and about 0.6% is in peat production. Unlike forestry, peat production is regionally less scattered and can thus have measurable local impacts although the total area of peat production is small. Three watersheds were used as study areas. Within each watershed, one stream drains a subcatchment affected only by peat mining, whereas the other stream flows through a subcatchment affected by forestry. The two subcatchment streams merge to form a single stream flowing into a lake. Studied watersheds were subject to no other forms of land use. In addition to the impacted sites, we used two pristine natural mire and two natural forest catchments as controls. We analysed the stable isotopes of carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) from benthic macroinvertebrates, stream bank soil, stream sediment, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in stream water. Samples for stable isotope analyses were collected in the summer of 2011 and samples for invertebrate community analyses in the autumn of 2011. Upon sampling we measured several physical parameters at each sampling site. In addition, stream water samples collected in summer and autumn 2012 were analysed for CH4 and CO2 gas concentrations and autumn gas samples also for their δ13C values. Our initial SIA results of invertebrates suggest some degree of discrimination between different sources of OM and possible effects on feeding habits, presumably due to the quality of the basal resources. We will explore this result further by examining not only taxonomical structure, but also the role that functional feeding groups may have on results. Initial results on invertebrate community structure in response to land use indicate the importance of geographical site location over land use effects. We suggest that SIA results should be interpreted together with benthic macroinvertebrate community analyses to get more insight into ecological impacts of different peatland uses with respect to changed food quality. Further, we will assess whether CH4 and CO2 could be used as an indicator of basal resource change. In future studies, we will address the role of the quality and quantity of the basal resources in more detail, which is likely to provide more insight into the effects of different forms of peatland use on aquatic ecosystems.

Assessing the potential impact and uncertainty of climate, land use change and demographic trends on malaria transmission in Africa by 2050.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tompkins, Adrian; Caporaso, Luca; Colon-Gonzalez, Felipe

2014-05-01

Previous analyses of data has shown that in addition to variability and longer term trends in climate variables, both land use change (LUC) and population mobility and urbanisation trends can impact malaria transmission intensities and socio-economic burden. With the new regional VECTRI dynamical malaria model it is now possible to examine these in an integrated modelling framework. Using 5 global climate models which were bias corrected using the WATCH data for the recent ISIMIP project, the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), population projections disaggregated from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Land use change from the HYDE model output used in the CMIP5 process, we construct a multi-member ensemble of malaria transmission intensity projections for 2050. The ensemble integrations indicate that climate has the leading impact on malaria changes, but that population growth and urbanisation can offset the effect of climate locally. LUC impacts can also be significant on the local scale but their assessment is highly uncertain and only indicative in this study. It is argued that the study should be repeated with a range of malaria models or VECTRI configurations in order to assess the additional uncertainty due to the malaria model assumptions.

The Impact of the Rock Mass Deformation on Geometric Changes of a Historical Chimney in the Salt Mine of Bochnia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szafarczyk, Anna; Gawałkiewicz, Rafał

2018-03-01

There are many ways of the geometry measurement of slim objects, with the application of geodetic and photogrammetric methods. A modern solution in the diagnostics of slim objects is the application of laser scanning, with the use of a scanner of a scanning total station. The point cloud, obtained from the surface of the scanned object gives the possibility of generating not only information on structural surface deformations, but also facilitates obtaining the data on the geometry of the axis of the building, as a basic indicator of the characteristics of its deformation. The cause of the change in the geometry of slim objects is the impact of many external and internal factors. These objects are located in the areas of working or closed underground mines. They can be impacted by the ground and they can face the results of the convergence of cavities. A specific structure of the salt rock mass causes subsequent convergence of the post-exploitation cavities, which has the influence on the behaviour of the terrain surface and the related objects. The authors analysed the impact of the changes in the rock mass and the surface on the changes of the industrial chimney in the Bochnia Salt Mine.

Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude

PubMed Central

Deutsch, Curtis A.; Tewksbury, Joshua J.; Huey, Raymond B.; Sheldon, Kimberly S.; Ghalambor, Cameron K.; Haak, David C.; Martin, Paul R.

2008-01-01

The impact of anthropogenic climate change on terrestrial organisms is often predicted to increase with latitude, in parallel with the rate of warming. Yet the biological impact of rising temperatures also depends on the physiological sensitivity of organisms to temperature change. We integrate empirical fitness curves describing the thermal tolerance of terrestrial insects from around the world with the projected geographic distribution of climate change for the next century to estimate the direct impact of warming on insect fitness across latitude. The results show that warming in the tropics, although relatively small in magnitude, is likely to have the most deleterious consequences because tropical insects are relatively sensitive to temperature change and are currently living very close to their optimal temperature. In contrast, species at higher latitudes have broader thermal tolerance and are living in climates that are currently cooler than their physiological optima, so that warming may even enhance their fitness. Available thermal tolerance data for several vertebrate taxa exhibit similar patterns, suggesting that these results are general for terrestrial ectotherms. Our analyses imply that, in the absence of ameliorating factors such as migration and adaptation, the greatest extinction risks from global warming may be in the tropics, where biological diversity is also greatest. PMID:18458348

Chronic Changes in the Articular Cartilage and Meniscus Following Traumatic Impact to the Lapine Knee

PubMed Central

Fischenich, Kristine M.; Button, Keith D.; Coatney, Garrett A.; Fajardo, Ryan S.; Leikert, Kevin M.; Haut, Roger C.; Haut Donahue, Tammy L.

2014-01-01

The objective of this study was to induce anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) and meniscal damage, via a single tibiofemoral compressive impact, in order to document articular cartilage and meniscal changes post impact. Tibiofemoral joints of Flemish Giant rabbits were subjected to a single blunt impact that ruptured the ACL and produced acute meniscal damage. Animals were allowed unrestricted cage activity for 12 weeks before euthanasia. India ink analysis of the articular cartilage revealed higher degrees of surface damage on the impacted tibias (p=0.018) and femurs (p<0.0001) compared to controls. Chronic meniscal damage was most prevalent in the medial central and medial posterior regions. Mechanical tests revealed an overall 19.4% increase in tibial plateau cartilage thickness (p=0.026), 34.8% increase in tibial plateau permeability (p=0.054), 40.8% increase in femoral condyle permeability (p=0.029), and 20.1% decrease in femoral condyle matrix modulus (p=0.012) in impacted joints compared to controls. Both the instantaneous and equilibrium moduli of the lateral and medial menisci were decreased compared to control (p<0.02). Histological analyses revealed significantly increased presence of fissures in the medial femur (p = 0.036). In both the meniscus and cartilage there was a significant decrease in GAG coverage for the impacted limbs. Based on these results it is clear that an unattended combined meniscal and ACL injury results in significant changes to the soft tissues in this experimental joint 12 weeks post injury. Such changes are consistent with a clinical description of mid to late stage PTOA of the knee. PMID:25523754

Climate change adaptation in Tanjung Mas – Semarang: a comparison between male- and female-headed households

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handayani, W.; Ananda, M. R.; Esariti, L.; Anggraeni, M.

2018-03-01

Mainly due to its complexity, the effort to mainstream gender in addressing climate change issues has been far from the satisfying result. However, there is an urgent call to accommodate gender lens issues and to become more gender sensitive in an attempt to have an effective intervention in responding climate change impact. To enrich the reports on gender and climate change adaptation in city-based case, this paper aims to elaborate climate change adaptation in Tanjung Mas – Semarang city focusing on the gender perspective analysis in male- and female-headed households. The quantitative descriptive method is applied to carry out the analyses, including adaptive strategy and gender role analyses. The research result indicates there are not any significant differences in the climate change adaptation strategies applied in male- and female-headed households. This shows that women in the female-headed households, with their double burden, performed well in managing their roles. Therefore, in particular perspective, it may not be relevant to state that woman and female-headed households are likely to be more vulnerable compared with their counterparts.

ClimateWizard: A Framework and Easy-to-Use Web-Mapping Tool for Global, Regional, and Local Climate-Change Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girvetz, E. H.; Zganjar, C.; Raber, G. T.; Hoekstra, J.; Lawler, J. J.; Kareiva, P.

2008-12-01

Now that there is overwhelming evidence of global climate change, scientists, managers and planners (i.e. practitioners) need to assess the potential impacts of climate change on particular ecological systems, within specific geographic areas, and at spatial scales they care about, in order to make better land management, planning, and policy decisions. Unfortunately, this application of climate science to real world decisions and planning has proceeded too slowly because we lack tools for translating cutting-edge climate science and climate-model outputs into something managers and planners can work with at local or regional scales (CCSP 2008). To help increase the accessibility of climate information, we have developed a freely-available, easy-to-use, web-based climate-change analysis toolbox, called ClimateWizard, for assessing how climate has and is projected to change at specific geographic locations throughout the world. The ClimateWizard uses geographic information systems (GIS), web-services (SOAP/XML), statistical analysis platforms (e.g. R- project), and web-based mapping services (e.g. Google Earth/Maps, KML/GML) to provide a variety of different analyses (e.g. trends and departures) and outputs (e.g. maps, graphs, tables, GIS layers). Because ClimateWizard analyzes large climate datasets stored remotely on powerful computers, users of the tool do not need to have fast computers or expensive software, but simply need access to the internet. The analysis results are then provided to users in a Google Maps webpage tailored to the specific climate-change question being asked. The ClimateWizard is not a static product, but rather a framework to be built upon and modified to suit the purposes of specific scientific, management, and policy questions. For example, it can be expanded to include bioclimatic variables (e.g. evapotranspiration) and marine data (e.g. sea surface temperature), as well as improved future climate projections, and climate-change impact analyses involving hydrology, vegetation, wildfire, disease, and food security. By harnessing the power of computer and web- based technologies, the ClimateWizard puts local, regional, and global climate-change analyses in the hands of a wider array of managers, planners, and scientists.

Impact of a statistical bias correction on the projected simulated hydrological changes obtained from three GCMs and two hydrology models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagemann, Stefan; Chen, Cui; Haerter, Jan O.; Gerten, Dieter; Heinke, Jens; Piani, Claudio

2010-05-01

Future climate model scenarios depend crucially on their adequate representation of the hydrological cycle. Within the European project "Water and Global Change" (WATCH) special care is taken to couple state-of-the-art climate model output to a suite of hydrological models. This coupling is expected to lead to a better assessment of changes in the hydrological cycle. However, due to the systematic model errors of climate models, their output is often not directly applicable as input for hydrological models. Thus, the methodology of a statistical bias correction has been developed, which can be used for correcting climate model output to produce internally consistent fields that have the same statistical intensity distribution as the observations. As observations, global re-analysed daily data of precipitation and temperature are used that are obtained in the WATCH project. We will apply the bias correction to global climate model data of precipitation and temperature from the GCMs ECHAM5/MPIOM, CNRM-CM3 and LMDZ-4, and intercompare the bias corrected data to the original GCM data and the observations. Then, the orginal and the bias corrected GCM data will be used to force two global hydrology models: (1) the hydrological model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-HM) consisting of the Simplified Land surface (SL) scheme and the Hydrological Discharge (HD) model, and (2) the dynamic vegetation model LPJmL operated by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The impact of the bias correction on the projected simulated hydrological changes will be analysed, and the resulting behaviour of the two hydrology models will be compared.

Combating child obesity: impact of HENRY on parenting and family lifestyle.

PubMed

Willis, T A; George, J; Hunt, C; Roberts, K P J; Evans, C E L; Brown, R E; Rudolf, M C J

2014-10-01

One-quarter of children in England are overweight/obese at school entry. We investigated the impact of a programme designed to provide parents of infants and preschool children with the skills required for a healthier family lifestyle. A cohort of families was followed across the 8-week HENRY (Health Exercise Nutrition for the Really Young) parent course at nine locations in England. Seventy-seven parents enrolled on the course, of which 71 agreed to complete questionnaires addressing eating behaviours, dietary intake and parental self-efficacy. Pre- and post-course data was available from 60 (84.5%) parents (8-week follow-up data from 58 parents) and was analysed using repeated measures analyses. Significant changes were observed, with most sustained at follow-up. Parents reported increased self-efficacy and ability to encourage good behaviour (P < 0.001). Increased consumption of fruits and vegetables was reported in both children and adults, together with reduced consumption of sweets, cakes and fizzy drinks in adults (all P < 0.01). There were also positive changes in eating behaviours (e.g., frequency of family mealtimes and eating while watching television or in response to negative emotion [P < 0.01] ) and reduced screen time in adults (P < 0.001). The results build upon earlier evaluation, indicating that the HENRY intervention has a beneficial impact upon the families of infants and preschool children. Furthermore, the findings suggest that positive changes inspired by the programme can be maintained beyond its completion. Such changes may serve to protect against later obesity. © 2013 The Authors. Pediatric Obesity © 2013 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

Prehistoric Human-environment Interactions and Their Impact on Aquatic Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackay, H.; Henderson, A. C. G.; van Hardenbroek, M.; Cavers, G.; Crone, A.; Davies, K. L.; Fonville, T. R.; Head, K.; Langdon, P. G.; Matton, R.; McCormick, F.; Murray, E.; Whitehouse, N. J.; Brown, A. G.

2017-12-01

One of the first widespread human-environment interactions in Scotland and Ireland occurred 3000 years ago when communities first inhabited wetlands, building artificial islands in lakes called crannogs. The reason behind the development and intermittent occupation of crannogs is unclear. We don't know if they were a response to changes in environment or if they were driven by societal influences. Furthermore, the impact of the construction, settlement and human activities on lake ecosystems is unknown, but is a key example of early anthropogenic signatures on the environment. Our research characterises the prehistoric human-environment interactions associated with crannogs by analysing geochemical and biological signals preserved within the crannog and wetland sediments. Records of anthropogenic activities and environmental change have been produced using lipid biomarkers of faecal matter, sedimentary DNA, and the remains of beetles, aquatic invertebrates (chironomids), siliceous algae (diatoms) and pollen. Results of these analyses reveal settlement occupations occurred in phases from the Iron Age to the Medieval Period. The main effects of occupation on the wetland ecosystems are nutrient-driven increases in productivity and shifts in aquatic species from clear water taxa to those associated with more eutrophic conditions. Crannog abandonment reduces nutrient inputs and therefore levels of aquatic productivity, as evidenced by decreases in the abundance of siliceous algae. Despite returns to pre-settlement nutrient and productivity levels, the lake ecosystems do not recover to their previous ecological state: dominant aquatic invertebrate and siliceous algae taxa shift in response to elevated levels of macrophytes within the lakes. Whilst these phase changes in lake ecosystems highlight their adaptive capacity to environmental change, the temporary human interactions associated with crannogs had persisting environmental impacts that shaped the long-term structure of the aquatic ecosystems.

What is the perceived impact of Alexander technique lessons on health status, costs and pain management in the real life setting of an English hospital? The results of a mixed methods evaluation of an Alexander technique service for those with chronic back pain.

PubMed

McClean, Stuart; Brilleman, Sam; Wye, Lesley

2015-07-28

Randomised controlled trial evidence indicates that Alexander Technique is clinically and cost effective for chronic back pain. The aim of this mixed methods evaluation was to explore the role and perceived impact of Alexander Technique lessons in the naturalistic setting of an acute hospital Pain Management Clinic in England. To capture changes in health status and resource use amongst service users, 43 service users were administered three widely used questionnaires (Brief Pain Inventory, MYMOP and Client Service Resource Inventory) at three time points: baseline, six weeks and three months after baseline. We also carried out 27 telephone interviews with service users and seven face-to-face interviews with pain clinic staff and Alexander Technique teachers. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics and qualitative data were analysed thematically. Those taking Alexander Technique lessons reported small improvements in health outcomes, and condition-related costs fell. However, due to the non-randomised, uncontrolled nature of the study design, changes cannot be attributed to the Alexander Technique lessons. Service users stated that their relationship to pain and pain management had changed, especially those who were more committed to practising the techniques regularly. These changes may explain the reported reduction in pain-related service use and the corresponding lower associated costs. Alexander Technique lessons may be used as another approach to pain management. The findings suggests that Alexander Technique lessons can help improve self-efficacy for those who are sufficiently motivated, which in turn may have an impact on service utilisation levels.

A Systematic Review of the Impact of Multi-Strategy Nutrition Education Programs on Health and Nutrition of Adolescents.

PubMed

Meiklejohn, Sarah; Ryan, Lisa; Palermo, Claire

2016-10-01

To update evidence on the impact of multi-strategy nutrition education interventions on adolescents' health and nutrition outcomes and behaviors. Systematic review of randomized controlled studies of multi-strategy interventions encompassing nutrition education published from 2000 to 2014 guided by the Preferred Reported Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses statement. Secondary schools in developed countries. Adolescents aged 10-18 years. Anthropometric and dietary intake. Systematic search of 7,009 unduplicated articles and review of 11 studies (13 articles) meeting inclusion criteria using qualitative comparison. Four studies reported significant changes in anthropometric measures and 9 showed significant changes in dietary intake. Type of nutrition education varied. Components of the interventions that showed statistically significant changes in anthropometric and dietary intake included facilitation of the programs by school staff and teachers, parental involvement, and using theoretical models to guide the intervention's development. Changes in canteens, food supply, and vending machines were associated with significant changes in dietary intake. Multi-strategy interventions can have significant impacts on nutrition of adolescents when the nutrition education is theoretically based and facilitated by school staff in conjunction with parents and families, and includes changes to the school food environment. Copyright © 2016 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Future climate change impact assessment of watershed scale hydrologic processes in Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology modelo.

PubMed

Amin, M Z M; Shaaban, A J; Ercan, A; Ishida, K; Kavvas, M L; Chen, Z Q; Jang, S

2017-01-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century was dynamically downscaled to 6km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over Muda and Dungun watersheds. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions in the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant from April to May and from July to October at Muda watershed. Also, the increase in mean monthly flows is shown to be significant in November during 2030-2070 and from November to December during 2070-2100 at Dungun watershed. In other words, the impact of the expected climate change will be significant during the northeast and southwest monsoon seasons at Muda watershed and during the northeast monsoon season at Dungun watershed. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for both watersheds indicated an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of landuse/land cover change on run-off in the catchment of a hydro power project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khare, Deepak; Patra, Diptendu; Mondal, Arun; Kundu, Sananda

2017-05-01

The landuse/land cover change and rainfall have a significant influence on the hydrological response of the river basins. The run-off characteristics are changing naturally due to reduction of initial abstraction that increases the run-off volume. Therefore, it is necessary to quantify the changes in the run-off characteristics of a catchment under the influence of changed landuse/land cover. Soil conservation service model has been used in the present study to analyse the impact of various landuse/land cover (past, present and future time period) change in the run-off characteristics of a part of Narmada basin at the gauge discharge site of Mandaleswar in Madhya Pradesh, India. Calculated run-off has been compared with the observed run-off data for the study. The landuse/land cover maps of 1990, 2000 and 2009 have been prepared by digital classification method with proper accuracy using satellite imageries. The impact of the run-off change on hydro power potential has been assessed in the study along with the estimation of the future changes in hydro power potential. Five types of conditions (+10, +5 %, average, -5, -10 % of average rainfall) have been applied with 90 and 75 % dependability status. The generated energy will be less in 90 % dependable flow in respect to the 75 % dependable flow. This work will be helpful for future planning related to establishment of hydropower setup.

Impacts of Launch Vehicle Fairing Size on Human Exploration Architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jefferies, Sharon; Collins, Tim; Dwyer Cianciolo, Alicia; Polsgrove, Tara

2017-01-01

Human missions to Mars, particularly to the Martian surface, are grand endeavors that place extensive demands on ground infrastructure, launch capabilities, and mission systems. The interplay of capabilities and limitations among these areas can have significant impacts on the costs and ability to conduct Mars missions and campaigns. From a mission and campaign perspective, decisions that affect element designs, including those based on launch vehicle and ground considerations, can create effects that ripple through all phases of the mission and have significant impact on the overall campaign. These effects result in impacts to element designs and performance, launch and surface manifesting, and mission operations. In current Evolvable Mars Campaign concepts, the NASA Space Launch System (SLS) is the primary launch vehicle for delivering crew and payloads to cis-lunar space. SLS is currently developing an 8.4m diameter cargo fairing, with a planned upgrade to a 10m diameter fairing in the future. Fairing diameter is a driving factor that impacts many aspects of system design, vehicle performance, and operational concepts. It creates a ripple effect that influences all aspects of a Mars mission, including: element designs, grounds operations, launch vehicle design, payload packaging on the lander, launch vehicle adapter design to meet structural launch requirements, control and thermal protection during entry and descent at Mars, landing stability, and surface operations. Analyses have been performed in each of these areas to assess and, where possible, quantify the impacts of fairing diameter selection on all aspects of a Mars mission. Several potential impacts of launch fairing diameter selection are identified in each of these areas, along with changes to system designs that result. Solutions for addressing these impacts generally result in increased systems mass and propellant needs, which can further exacerbate packaging and flight challenges. This paper presents the results of the analyses performed, the potential changes to mission architectures and campaigns that result, and the general trends that are more broadly applicable to any element design or mission planning for human exploration.

Joint impacts of minimum legal drinking age and beer taxes on US youth traffic fatalities, 1975 to 2001.

PubMed

Ponicki, William R; Gruenewald, Paul J; LaScala, Elizabeth A

2007-05-01

There is a considerable body of prior research indicating that a number of public policies that limit alcohol availability affect youth traffic fatalities. These limitations can be economic (e.g., beverage taxation), physical (e.g., numbers or operating hours of alcohol outlets), or demographic (e.g., minimum legal drinking age). The estimated impacts of these policies differ widely across studies. A full-price theoretical approach suggests that people weigh the benefits of drinking against the sum of all the associated costs, including the price of the beverages themselves plus the difficulty of obtaining them and any additional risks of injury or punishment related to their use. This study tested one prediction of this model, namely that the impact from changing one availability-related cost depends on the level of other components of full cost. The current analyses concentrate on 2 forms of limitations on availability that have been shown to affect youth traffic fatalities: minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) laws and beer taxes. The interdependence between the impacts of MLDA and taxes is investigated using a panel of 48 US states over the period 1975 to 2001. All age-group-specific models control for numerous other variables previously shown to affect vehicle fatalities, as well as fixed effects to account for unexplained crosssectional and time-series variation. The analyses showed that raising either MLDA or beer taxes in isolation led to fewer youth traffic fatalities. As expected, a given change in MLDA causes a larger proportional change in fatalities when beer taxes are low than when they are high. These findings suggest that a community's expected benefit from a proposed limitation on alcohol availability depends on its current regulatory environment. Specifically, communities with relatively strong existing policies might expect smaller impacts than suggested by prior research, while places with weak current regulations might expect larger benefits from the same policy initiative.

An Evidence-Based Review of Impacts, Strategies and Tools to Mitigate Urban Heat Islands

PubMed Central

Leal Filho, Walter; Echevarria Icaza, Leyre; Emanche, Victoria Omeche; Quasem Al-Amin, Abul

2017-01-01

The impacts of climate changes on cities, which are home to over half of the world’s population, are already being felt. In many cases, the intensive speed with which urban centres have been growing means that little attention has been paid to the role played by climatic factors in maintaining quality of life. Among the negative consequences of rapid city growth is the expansion of the problems posed by urban heat islands (UHIs), defined as areas in a city that are much warmer than other sites, especially in comparison with rural areas. This paper analyses the consistency of the UHI-related literature in three stages: first it outlines its characteristics and impacts in a wide variety of cities around the world, which poses pressures to public health in many different countries. Then it introduces strategies which may be employed in order to reduce its effects, and finally it analyses available tools to systematize the initial high level assessment of the phenomenon for multidisciplinary teams involved in the urban planning process. The analysis of literature on the characteristics, impacts, strategies and digital tools to assess on the UHI, reveals the wide variety of parameters, methods, tools and strategies analysed and suggested in the different studies, which does not always allow to compare or standardize the diagnosis or solutions. PMID:29257100

A preliminary study of the impact of the ERS 1 C band scatterometer wind data on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global data assimilation system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, Ross N.

1993-01-01

A preliminary assessment of the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer wind data on the current European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analysis and forecast system has been carried out. Although the scatterometer data results in changes to the analyses and forecasts, there is no consistent improvement or degradation. Our results are based on comparing analyses and forecasts from assimilation cycles. The two sets of analyses are very similar except for the low level wind fields over the ocean. Impacts on the analyzed wind fields are greater over the southern ocean, where other data are scarce. For the most part the mass field increments are too small to balance the wind increments. The effect of the nonlinear normal mode initialization on the analysis differences is quite small, but we observe that the differences tend to wash out in the subsequent 6-hour forecast. In the Northern Hemisphere, analysis differences are very small, except directly at the scatterometer locations. Forecast comparisons reveal large differences in the Southern Hemisphere after 72 hours. Notable differences in the Northern Hemisphere do not appear until late in the forecast. Overall, however, the Southern Hemisphere impacts are neutral. The experiments described are preliminary in several respects. We expect these data to ultimately prove useful for global data assimilation.

Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji

PubMed Central

Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn

2014-01-01

Background Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Objective The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. Design The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1) the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2) the context within which the policy was developed; 3) the relevant processes; and 4) the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. Results The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. Conclusions The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should also be revised to consider climate change and its impact on human health. Approaches to include health aspects of climate change within sectoral and climate change specific policies should be encouraged, via a number of mechanisms, such as the Health in All Policies approach. Future research could support the Fiji health sector in developing climate change and health programmes. PMID:24836442

Eddy-induced Sea Surface Salinity changes in the tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delcroix, T. C.; Chaigneau, A.; Soviadan, D.; Boutin, J.

2017-12-01

We analyse the Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) signature of westward propagating mesoscale eddies in the tropical Pacific by collocating 5 years (2010-2015) of SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) SSS and altimetry-derived sea level anomalies. The main characteristics of mesoscale eddies are first identified in SLA maps. Composite analyses in the Central and Eastern ITCZ regions then reveal regionally dependent impacts with opposite SSS anomalies for the cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies. In the Central region (where we have the largest meridional SSS gradient), we found dipole-like SSS changes with maximum anomalies on the leading edge of the eddy. In the Eastern region (where we have the largest near-surface vertical salinity gradient) we found monopole-like SSS changes with maximum anomalies in the eddy centre. These dipole/monopole patterns and the rotational sense of eddies suggest the dominant role of horizontal and vertical advection in the Central and Eastern ITCZ regions, respectively.

Managing shifting species: Ancient DNA reveals conservation conundrums in a dynamic world.

PubMed

Waters, Jonathan M; Grosser, Stefanie

2016-11-01

The spread of exotic species represents a major driver of biological change across the planet. While dispersal and colonization are natural biological processes, we suggest that the failure to recognize increasing rates of human-facilitated self-introductions may represent a threat to native lineages. Notably, recent biogeographic analyses have revealed numerous cases of biological range shifts in response to anthropogenic impacts and climate change. In particular, ancient DNA analyses have revealed several cases in which lineages traditionally thought to be long-established "natives" are in fact recent colonizers. Such range expansion events have apparently occurred in response to human-mediated native biodiversity declines and ecosystem change, particularly in recently colonized, isolated ecosystems such as New Zealand. While such events can potentially boost local biodiversity, the spread of exotic lineages may also hasten the decline of indigenous species, so it is essential that conservation managers recognize these rapid biotic shifts.​. © 2016 WILEY Periodicals, Inc.

Measurement Equivalence of the Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System® (PROMIS®) Pain Interference Short Form Items: Application to Ethnically Diverse Cancer and Palliative Care Populations.

PubMed

Teresi, Jeanne A; Ocepek-Welikson, Katja; Cook, Karon F; Kleinman, Marjorie; Ramirez, Mildred; Reid, M Carrington; Siu, Albert

2016-01-01

Reducing the response burden of standardized pain measures is desirable, particularly for individuals who are frail or live with chronic illness, e.g., those suffering from cancer and those in palliative care. The Patient Reported Outcome Measurement Information System ® (PROMIS ® ) project addressed this issue with the provision of computerized adaptive tests (CAT) and short form measures that can be used clinically and in research. Although there has been substantial evaluation of PROMIS item banks, little is known about the performance of PROMIS short forms, particularly in ethnically diverse groups. Reviewed in this article are findings related to the differential item functioning (DIF) and reliability of the PROMIS pain interference short forms across diverse sociodemographic groups. DIF hypotheses were generated for the PROMIS short form pain interference items. Initial analyses tested item response theory (IRT) model assumptions of unidimensionality and local independence. Dimensionality was evaluated using factor analytic methods; local dependence (LD) was tested using IRT-based LD indices. Wald tests were used to examine group differences in IRT parameters, and to test DIF hypotheses. A second DIF-detection method used in sensitivity analyses was based on ordinal logistic regression with a latent IRT-derived conditioning variable. Magnitude and impact of DIF were investigated, and reliability and item and scale information statistics were estimated. The reliability of the short form item set was excellent. However, there were a few items with high local dependency, which affected the estimation of the final discrimination parameters. As a result, the item, "How much did pain interfere with enjoyment of social activities?" was excluded in the DIF analyses for all subgroup comparisons. No items were hypothesized to show DIF for race and ethnicity; however, five items showed DIF after adjustment for multiple comparisons in both primary and sensitivity analyses: ability to concentrate, enjoyment of recreational activities, tasks away from home, participation in social activities, and socializing with others. The magnitude of DIF was small and the impact negligible. Three items were consistently identified with DIF for education: enjoyment of life, ability to concentrate, and enjoyment of recreational activities. No item showed DIF above the magnitude threshold and the impact of DIF on the overall measure was minimal. No item showed gender DIF after correction for multiple comparisons in the primary analyses. Four items showed consistent age DIF: enjoyment of life, ability to concentrate, day to day activities, and enjoyment of recreational activities, none with primary magnitude values above threshold. Conditional on the pain state, Spanish speakers were hypothesized to report less pain interference on one item, enjoyment of life. The DIF findings confirmed the hypothesis; however, the magnitude was small. Using an arbitrary cutoff point of theta ( θ ) ≥ 1.0 to classify respondents with acute pain interference, the highest number of changes were for the education groups analyses. There were 231 respondents (4% of the total sample) who changed from the designation of no acute pain interference to acute interference after the DIF adjustment. There was no change in the designations for race/ethnic subgroups, and a small number of changes for respondents aged 65 to 84. Although significant DIF was observed after correction for multiple comparisons, all DIF was of low magnitude and impact. However, some individual-level impact was observed for low education groups. Reliability estimates were high. Thus, the PROMIS short form pain items examined in this ethnically diverse sample performed relatively well; although one item was problematic and removed from the analyses. It is concluded that the majority of the PROMIS pain interference short form items can be recommended for use among ethnically diverse groups, including those in palliative care and with cancer and chronic illness.

Measurement Equivalence of the Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System® (PROMIS®) Pain Interference Short Form Items: Application to Ethnically Diverse Cancer and Palliative Care Populations

PubMed Central

Teresi, Jeanne A.; Ocepek-Welikson, Katja; Cook, Karon F.; Kleinman, Marjorie; Ramirez, Mildred; Reid, M. Carrington; Siu, Albert

2017-01-01

Reducing the response burden of standardized pain measures is desirable, particularly for individuals who are frail or live with chronic illness, e.g., those suffering from cancer and those in palliative care. The Patient Reported Outcome Measurement Information System® (PROMIS®) project addressed this issue with the provision of computerized adaptive tests (CAT) and short form measures that can be used clinically and in research. Although there has been substantial evaluation of PROMIS item banks, little is known about the performance of PROMIS short forms, particularly in ethnically diverse groups. Reviewed in this article are findings related to the differential item functioning (DIF) and reliability of the PROMIS pain interference short forms across diverse sociodemographic groups. Methods DIF hypotheses were generated for the PROMIS short form pain interference items. Initial analyses tested item response theory (IRT) model assumptions of unidimensionality and local independence. Dimensionality was evaluated using factor analytic methods; local dependence (LD) was tested using IRT-based LD indices. Wald tests were used to examine group differences in IRT parameters, and to test DIF hypotheses. A second DIF-detection method used in sensitivity analyses was based on ordinal logistic regression with a latent IRT-derived conditioning variable. Magnitude and impact of DIF were investigated, and reliability and item and scale information statistics were estimated. Results The reliability of the short form item set was excellent. However, there were a few items with high local dependency, which affected the estimation of the final discrimination parameters. As a result, the item, “How much did pain interfere with enjoyment of social activities?” was excluded in the DIF analyses for all subgroup comparisons. No items were hypothesized to show DIF for race and ethnicity; however, five items showed DIF after adjustment for multiple comparisons in both primary and sensitivity analyses: ability to concentrate, enjoyment of recreational activities, tasks away from home, participation in social activities, and socializing with others. The magnitude of DIF was small and the impact negligible. Three items were consistently identified with DIF for education: enjoyment of life, ability to concentrate, and enjoyment of recreational activities. No item showed DIF above the magnitude threshold and the impact of DIF on the overall measure was minimal. No item showed gender DIF after correction for multiple comparisons in the primary analyses. Four items showed consistent age DIF: enjoyment of life, ability to concentrate, day to day activities, and enjoyment of recreational activities, none with primary magnitude values above threshold. Conditional on the pain state, Spanish speakers were hypothesized to report less pain interference on one item, enjoyment of life. The DIF findings confirmed the hypothesis; however, the magnitude was small. Using an arbitrary cutoff point of theta (θ) ≥ 1.0 to classify respondents with acute pain interference, the highest number of changes were for the education groups analyses. There were 231 respondents (4% of the total sample) who changed from the designation of no acute pain interference to acute interference after the DIF adjustment. There was no change in the designations for race/ethnic subgroups, and a small number of changes for respondents aged 65 to 84. Conclusions Although significant DIF was observed after correction for multiple comparisons, all DIF was of low magnitude and impact. However, some individual-level impact was observed for low education groups. Reliability estimates were high. Thus, the PROMIS short form pain items examined in this ethnically diverse sample performed relatively well; although one item was problematic and removed from the analyses. It is concluded that the majority of the PROMIS pain interference short form items can be recommended for use among ethnically diverse groups, including those in palliative care and with cancer and chronic illness. PMID:28983449

SECOND GENERATION MODEL | Science Inventory | US ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

One of the environmental and economic models that the U.S. EPA uses to assess climate change policies is the Second Generation Model (SGM). SGM is a 13 region, 24 sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the world that can be used to estimate the domestic and international economic impacts of policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. SGM was developed by Jae Edmonds and others at the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the University of Maryland. One of SGM's primary purposes is to provide an integrated assessment of a portfolio of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies. The SGM projects economic activity, energy transformation and consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions for each region of the globe in five-year time steps from 1990 through 2050. The model has been used extensively over the last decade to assess U.S. policy options to achieve greenhouse gas mitigation goals. The SGM is one of EPA's primary tools for analyses of climate change policies. It was used extensively by the the U.S. government to analyze the impact of the Kyoto Protocol. Moreover, the SGM has been used by EPA during the current Administration for analyses of the climate components of various multi-emissions bills.

Human health impacts avoided under the Paris Agreement on climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, Dann

2017-04-01

This analyses makes use of the experiments and model data from the Half a degree Additional warming; Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI; www.happimip.org) analysis (Mitchell et al, 2016a). HAPPI is unique in that it is specifically designed to address the Paris Agreement priorities on climate impacts, by using equilibrated climates and super-ensembles, thereby enabling robust analysis of extremes. Here we first look at extreme hot and cold spells, and then make use of the most recent heat-mortality models, and heat stress metrics to look at any differences between 1.5C and 2C worlds compared to normal.

Assessing the Impact of Psychotropic Medication Changes on Challenging Behavior of Individuals with Intellectual Disabilities

PubMed Central

Valdovinos, Maria G.; Henninger-McMahon, Meara; Schieber, Elizabeth; Beard, Lisa; Conley, Brenna; Haas, Annette

2016-01-01

Objective The use of psychotropic medication to address challenging behavior in individuals diagnosed with intellectual disabilities is common practice; however, very few studies have examined how multiple medication use (or combination treatment) impacts the behaviors these medications are prescribed to treat. Method The current study followed eight individuals over a two-year period as they experienced changes in their psychotropic medication regimens. During that time, data from functional analyses and indirect assessments of challenging behavior were collected. Results The results suggest that changes in psychotropic medication regimens can produce changes in functional assessment outcomes, suggesting a need for continued behavioral assessment to better inform medication practices and behavioral treatment. Of the eight participants in the study, five participants’ behaviors varied in rate of responding in FAs across all medication changes. Additionally, three participants’ FAs produced changes in outcomes; however, those changes were not consistent across all medication changes, that is, not every medication change yielded different outcomes from previous assessments. Conclusion This study demonstrates how the outcome of an FA can be used to monitor the effects of psychotropic medication changes, specifically when medications are combined, on challenging behavior in individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities. PMID:27429750

The global impact of noncommunicable diseases: estimates and projections.

PubMed

Manton, K G

1988-01-01

With the aging of populations in developing countries there is both a demographic and an epidemiological transition which affects the impact of chronic degenerative diseases on the health status of the populations. Demographic transition takes place in countries where there are effective programmes of disease control which allow for survival during the early years of childhood and adolescence. This results in an increase in life expectancy which places larger proportions of the population in the age range (60 years and older) in which chronic degenerative diseases become the major determinants of health status. Epidemiological transition in diseases may also be brought about by shifts in social and economic patterns which favour detrimental changes in risk factors for the chronic degenerative diseases. Such changes may include health-related behaviour which augments dietary consumption of fats and alcohol, increases obesity, increases smoking and decreases physical activity. Such changes in risk-factor levels increase the prevalence of chronic degenerative diseases which manifest themselves at later ages, and for which early preventive actions could be cost-effective. In order to illustrate the impact of both demographic and risk-factor effects, analyses are made of the impact of increases in life expectancy on cause-specific mortality in both developing and developed countries. It is shown that there is great similarity in the effect of major noncommunicable diseases on the life expectancy of adults in both developed and developing countries. The major differences are seen to be in the proportions of deaths expected from such diseases as cancer, diabetes, heart disease, stroke and cirrhosis; but not in the distribution of age at death which is the better measure of disease impact. Demographic analyses, computing indirect estimates of mortality, also demonstrate that there are currently more chronic disease deaths in developing than developed countries and that as expectation of life increases in developing countries the global chronic disease burden will be greatly concentrated in the developing countries. Analyses of risk-factor reduction by feasible intervention strategies, e.g. smoking cessation campaigns, treatment of high blood pressure, using relationships between risk factors and diseases established in longitudinal studies carried out in developed countries, point out that the effect of risk-factor control in long-living populations can be hidden by the dependency of risk factors and various related causes of death, e.g. smoking has an impact on lung cancer, ischaemic heart disease and emphysema, but at different ages.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Analyses of historical and projected climates to support climate adaptation in the northern Rocky Mountains: Chapter 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gross, John E.; Tercek, Michael; Guay, Kevin; Chang, Tony; Talbert, Marian; Rodman, Ann; Thoma, David; Jantz, Patrick; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2016-01-01

Most of the western United States is experiencing the effects of rapid and directional climate change (Garfin et al. 2013). These effects, along with forecasts of profound changes in the future, provide strong motivation for resource managers to learn about and prepare for future changes. Climate adaptation plans are based on an understanding of historic climate variation and their effects on ecosystems and on forecasts of future climate trends. Frameworks for climate adaptation thus universally identify the importance of a summary of historical, current, and projected climates (Glick, Stein, and Edelson 2011; Cross et al. 2013; Stein et al. 2014). Trends in physical climate variables are usually the basis for evaluating the exposure component in vulnerability assessments. Thus, this chapter focuses on step 2 of the Climate-Smart Conservation framework (chap. 2): vulnerability assessment. We present analyses of historical and current observations of temperature, precipitation, and other key climate measurements to provide context and a baseline for interpreting the ecological impacts of projected climate changes.

Effects of seawater acidification on gene expression: resolving broader-scale trends in sea urchins.

PubMed

Evans, Tyler G; Watson-Wynn, Priscilla

2014-06-01

Sea urchins are ecologically and economically important calcifying organisms threatened by acidification of the global ocean caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Propelled by the sequencing of the purple sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) genome, profiling changes in gene expression during exposure to high pCO2 seawater has emerged as a powerful and increasingly common method to infer the response of urchins to ocean change. However, analyses of gene expression are sensitive to experimental methodology, and comparisons between studies of genes regulated by ocean acidification are most often made in the context of major caveats. Here we perform meta-analyses as a means of minimizing experimental discrepancies and resolving broader-scale trends regarding the effects of ocean acidification on gene expression in urchins. Analyses across eight studies and four urchin species largely support prevailing hypotheses about the impact of ocean acidification on marine calcifiers. The predominant expression pattern involved the down-regulation of genes within energy-producing pathways, a clear indication of metabolic depression. Genes with functions in ion transport were significantly over-represented and are most plausibly contributing to intracellular pH regulation. Expression profiles provided extensive evidence for an impact on biomineralization, epitomized by the down-regulation of seven spicule matrix proteins. In contrast, expression profiles provided limited evidence for CO2-mediated developmental delay or induction of a cellular stress response. Congruence between studies of gene expression and the ocean acidification literature in general validates the accuracy of gene expression in predicting the consequences of ocean change and justifies its continued use in future studies. © 2014 Marine Biological Laboratory.

Comparative dynamic analysis of the full Grossman model.

PubMed

Ried, W

1998-08-01

The paper applies the method of comparative dynamic analysis to the full Grossman model. For a particular class of solutions, it derives the equations implicitly defining the complete trajectories of the endogenous variables. Relying on the concept of Frisch decision functions, the impact of any parametric change on an endogenous variable can be decomposed into a direct and an indirect effect. The focus of the paper is on marginal changes in the rate of health capital depreciation. It also analyses the impact of either initial financial wealth or the initial stock of health capital. While the direction of most effects remains ambiguous in the full model, the assumption of a zero consumption benefit of health is sufficient to obtain a definite for any direct or indirect effect.

Impact of a pilot walking school bus intervention on children's pedestrian safety behaviors: a pilot study.

PubMed

Mendoza, Jason A; Watson, Kathy; Chen, Tzu-An; Baranowski, Tom; Nicklas, Theresa A; Uscanga, Doris K; Hanfling, Marcus J

2012-01-01

Walking school buses (WSB) increased children's physical activity, but impact on pedestrian safety behaviors (PSB) is unknown. We tested the feasibility of a protocol evaluating changes to PSB during a WSB program. Outcomes were school-level street crossing PSB prior to (Time 1) and during weeks 4-5 (Time 2) of the WSB. The protocol collected 1252 observations at Time 1 and 2548 at Time 2. Mixed model analyses yielded: intervention schoolchildren had 5-fold higher odds (p<0.01) of crossing at the corner/crosswalk but 5-fold lower odds (p<0.01) of stopping at the curb. The protocol appears feasible for documenting changes to school-level PSB. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): Open Access to a Climate Data Store

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thepaut, Jean-Noel; Dee, Dick

2016-04-01

In November 2014, The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) signed an agreement with the European Commission to deliver two of the Copernicus Earth Observation Programme Services on the Commission's behalf. The ECMWF delivered services - the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) - will bring a consistent standard to how we monitor and predict atmospheric conditions and climate change. They will maximise the potential of past, current and future earth observations - ground, ocean, airborne, satellite - and analyse these to monitor and predict atmospheric conditions and in the future, climate change. With the wealth of free and open data that the services provide, they will help business users to assess the impact of their business decisions and make informed choices, delivering a more energy efficient and climate aware economy. These sound investment decisions now will not only stimulate growth in the short term, but reduce the impact of climate change on the economy and society in the future. C3S is in its proof of concept phase and through its Climate Data Store will provide • global and regional climate data reanalyses; • multi-model seasonal forecasts; • customisable visual data to enable examination of wide range of scenarios and model the impact of changes; • access to all the underlying data, including climate data records from various satellite and in-situ observations. In addition, C3S will provide key indicators on climate change drivers (such as carbon dioxide) and impacts (such as reducing glaciers). The aim of these indicators will be to support European adaptation and mitigation policies in a number of economic sectors. At the heart of the Service is the provision of open access to a one stop shop (the Climate Data Store) of climate data and modelling, analysing more than 20 Essential Climate Variables to build a global picture of our past, present and future climate and developing customisable climate indicators for key economic sectors, such as energy, water management, agriculture, insurance, health… This talk will focus on the Climate Data Store facility, designed as a distributed system, providing improved access to existing datasets though a unified web interface. This service will accommodate the needs of the highly diverse set of users, from policy makers to expert practitioners and scientists.

Consideration of climate change on environmental impact assessment in Spain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro, E-mail: aenriquez@draba.org; Martín-Aranda, Rosa M., E-mail: rmartin@ccia.uned.es; Díaz-Sierra, Rubén, E-mail: sierra@dfmf.uned.es

Most of the projects subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA) are closely related to climate change, as they contribute to or are affected by it. The growing certainty about climate change and its impacts makes its consideration an essential part of the EIA process, as well as in strategic environmental assessment (SEA). This paper examines how climate change (CC) has been taken into account in EIA in Spain through the analysis of 1713 environmental records of decision (RODs) of projects submitted for EIA. In 2013 Spain approved one of the most advanced laws in terms of CC consideration in environmentalmore » assessment, although it had not yet accumulated extensive practice on the issue. This contrasts with the situation of countries like Canada or the USA, which have a significant body of experience without specific legal requirements. Only 14% of the RODs analysed included references to CC, and in more than half of the cases it was a mere citation. Thermal power plants, which are subject to specific GHG regulations, show the highest consideration, while transport infrastructures, which are important contributors to CC, show a very low consideration. Almost all the references are related to their contribution to CC, while consideration of the effects of CC is minimal. The increasingly common incorporation of CC into SEA, should not imply its exclusion from EIA, because both processes have different aims and uses. Including the obligation to consider CC in the EIA regulations is highly desirable, but probably not enough without other measures, such as practical guidance, training and motivational programmes for practitioners and evaluators. But even these actions cannot ensure effective and adequate assessments of CC. Probably more resources should be spent on creating greater awareness in all the agents involved in EIA. - Highlights: • We analyse how the climate change is considered in EIA in Spain. • Few projects seriously assess climate change. • Transport infrastructure projects barely consider climate change. • Assessing climate change in SEA should not imply that it is excluded from EIA.« less

Economic and social measures of biologic and climatic change. CIAP monograph 6. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1975-09-01

The Climatic Impact Assessment Program (CIAP) of the U.S. Department of Transportation is charged with the 'assessment' of the impact of future aircraft fleets and other vehicles operating in, or transiting through the stratosphere. CIAP monograph 6 addresses and conceptualizes socio-economic considerations for evaluating the terrestrial impact of, and potential necessary controls for, pollutant emissions in the stratosphere. It is best viewed as an exercise that utilizes methods developed in cost-benefit analyses and concentrates its attention on the conceptualization and measurement of the environmental costs associated with stratospheric travel. A set of parametric changes in particular climatic variables is considered.more » The results reported in this monograph are not considered definitive, because the monograph as a whole attacks a new problem, and one of a scale not confronted by economics or other social sciences in the past. However, one central fact, essentially independent of the investigative methods used, does emerge: seemingly small changes in mankind's climatic environment may give rise to subtle, diverse, but significant economic impacts and that these impacts, rather than being evenly spread across the economy, are likely to be specialized by activity, by location, or by both within nations and among nations. Discussed is the impact on fuel consumption, agriculture, forestry, materials degradation and wealth. (GRA)« less

Ecological and methodological drivers of species' distribution and phenology responses to climate change.

PubMed

Brown, Christopher J; O'Connor, Mary I; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Schoeman, David S; Buckley, Lauren B; Burrows, Michael T; Duarte, Carlos M; Halpern, Benjamin S; Pandolfi, John M; Parmesan, Camille; Richardson, Anthony J

2016-04-01

Climate change is shifting species' distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global data set of 651 published marine species' responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that (1) reanalyses of existing time series state how the existing data sets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species' responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates; and (4) that new time series be designed to include the detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the accuracy of analyses that seek to quantify the role of climate change in species' distribution and phenology changes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Statistical power for nonequivalent pretest-posttest designs. The impact of change-score versus ANCOVA models.

PubMed

Oakes, J M; Feldman, H A

2001-02-01

Nonequivalent controlled pretest-posttest designs are central to evaluation science, yet no practical and unified approach for estimating power in the two most widely used analytic approaches to these designs exists. This article fills the gap by presenting and comparing useful, unified power formulas for ANCOVA and change-score analyses, indicating the implications of each on sample-size requirements. The authors close with practical recommendations for evaluators. Mathematical details and a simple spreadsheet approach are included in appendices.

Ten years of experience from interactive ergonomics projects.

PubMed

Eklund, J; Karltun, J

2012-01-01

This paper highlights experiences from ergonomics projects, applying an interactive research approach. The aim of this paper is to summarise experiences from seven interactive ergonomics projects with the aim to improve ergonomics and organizational performance jointly. Results from these seven projects were analysed with a model for assessing sustainable change, including the factors active ownership, professional management, competent project leadership, and involved participants. All factors were found giving support to impact and sustainability of the change projects. However, the role of the researcher is difficult and demanding.

Understanding the emission impacts of high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) to high-occupancy toll (HOT) lane conversions: Experience from Atlanta, Georgia.

PubMed

Xu, Yanzhi Ann; Liu, Haobing; Rodgers, Michael O; Guin, Angshuman; Hunter, Michael; Sheikh, Adnan; Guensler, Randall

2017-08-01

Converting a congested high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lane into a high-occupancy toll (HOT) lane is a viable option for improving travel time reliability for carpools and buses that use the managed lane. However, the emission impacts of HOV-to-HOT conversions are not well understood. The lack of emission impact quantification for HOT conversions creates a policy challenge for agencies making transportation funding choices. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the case study of before-and-after changes in vehicle emissions for the Atlanta, Georgia, I-85 HOV/HOT lane conversion project, implemented in October 2011. The analyses employed the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) for project-level analysis with monitored changes in vehicle activity data collected by Georgia Tech researchers for the Georgia Department of Transportation (GDOT). During the quarterly field data collection from 2010 to 2012, more than 1.5 million license plates were observed and matched to vehicle class and age information using the vehicle registration database. The study also utilized the 20-sec, lane-specific traffic operations data from the Georgia NaviGAtor intelligent transportation system, as well as a direct feed of HOT lane usage data from the State Road and Tollway Authority (SRTA) managed lane system. As such, the analyses in this paper simultaneously assessed the impacts associated with changes in traffic volumes, on-road operating conditions, and fleet composition before and after the conversion. Both greenhouse gases and criteria pollutants were examined. A straight before-after analysis showed about 5% decrease in air pollutants and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). However, when the before-after calendar year of analysis was held constant (to account for the effect of 1 yr of fleet turnover), mass emissions at the analysis site during peak hours increased by as much as 17%, with little change in CO 2 . Further investigation revealed that a large percentage decrease in criteria pollutants in the straight before-after analysis was associated with a single calendar year change in MOVES. Hence, the Atlanta, Georgia, results suggest that an HOV-to-HOT conversion project may have increased mass emissions on the corridor. The results also showcase the importance of obtaining on-road data for emission impact assessment of HOV-to-HOT conversion projects.

Health and the war. Changing schemes and health conditions during the Spanish civil war.

PubMed

Barona, Josep L; Perdiguero-Gil, Enrique

2008-01-01

This paper focuses on the health reforms during the republican Spain (1931-1939) and the crisis derived from the three-year of civil war. It considers how the war affected the health system and the impairment of health conditions of the population during the late 1930s, considering the changing conditions caused by the conflict. Some of the specific topics analysed are the changing healthcare system, the adaptation of health organization after the outbreak of the war, the impact of the war on the health of the population and epidemiological changes, the problem of the refugees and the clinical studies by experts, mainly on undernourishment.

Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history

PubMed Central

Zhang, David D.; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F.; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane

2007-01-01

Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war–peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism. PMID:18048343

Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history.

PubMed

Zhang, David D; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane

2007-12-04

Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war-peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism.

Soybean Trade: Balancing Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts of an Intercontinental Market.

PubMed

Boerema, Annelies; Peeters, Alain; Swolfs, Sanne; Vandevenne, Floor; Jacobs, Sander; Staes, Jan; Meire, Patrick

2016-01-01

The trade in soybean, an important animal feed product, exemplifies the environmental and socio-economic impact of global markets and global agricultural policy. This paper analyses the impact of increasing production of soybean in the exporting countries (deforestation and grassland conversion) as well as in importing regions (decrease in permanent grassland by substitution of grass as feed). Ecosystem services monetary values were used to calculate the environmental and socio-economic impact of observed land use changes. This is balanced against the economic value of the global soybean trade. The results prove that consumption choices in one region have real effects on the supply of ecosystem services at a large spatial scale. Conclusively, solutions to make this global market more sustainable are discussed.

NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Supporting Analyses for National Climate Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemani, R. R.; Thrasher, B. L.; Wang, W.; Lee, T. J.; Melton, F. S.; Dungan, J. L.; Michaelis, A.

2015-12-01

The NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) is a collaborative computing platform that has been developed with the objective of bringing scientists together with the software tools, massive global datasets, and supercomputing resources necessary to accelerate research in Earth systems science and global change. NEX supports several research projects that are closely related with the National Climate Assessment including the generation of high-resolution climate projections, identification of trends and extremes in climate variables and the evaluation of their impacts on regional carbon/water cycles and biodiversity, the development of land-use management and adaptation strategies for climate-change scenarios, and even the exploration of climate mitigation through geo-engineering. Scientists also use the large collection of satellite data on NEX to conduct research on quantifying spatial and temporal changes in land surface processes in response to climate and land-cover-land-use changes. Researchers, leveraging NEX's massive compute/storage resources, have used statistical techniques to downscale the coarse-resolution CMIP5 projections to fulfill the demands of the community for a wide range of climate change impact analyses. The DCP-30 (Downscaled Climate Projections at 30 arcsecond) for the conterminous US at monthly, ~1km resolution and the GDDP (Global Daily Downscaled Projections) for the entire world at daily, 25km resolution are now widely used in climate research and applications, as well as for communicating climate change. In order to serve a broader community, the NEX team in collaboration with Amazon, Inc, created the OpenNEX platform. OpenNEX provides ready access to NEX data holdings, including the NEX-DCP30 and GDDP datasets along with a number of pertinent analysis tools and workflows on the AWS infrastructure in the form of publicly available, self contained, fully functional Amazon Machine Images (AMI's) for anyone interested in global climate change.

How do medical educators design a curriculum that facilitates student learning about professionalism?

PubMed Central

Mason, Glenn; Wang, Shaoyu

2016-01-01

Objectives This study analyses the ways in which curriculum reform facilitated student learning about professionalism. Methods Design-based research provided the structure for an iterative approach to curriculum change which we undertook over a 3 year period. The learning environment of the Personal and Professional Development Theme (PPD) was analysed through the sociocultural lens of Activity Theory. Lave and Wenger’s and Mezirow’s learning theories informed curriculum reform to support student development of a patient-centred and critically reflective professional identity. The renewed pedagogical outcomes were aligned with curriculum content, learning and teaching processes and assessment, and intense staff education was undertaken. We analysed qualitative data from tutor interviews and free-response student surveys to evaluate the impact of curriculum reform. Results Students’ and tutors’ reflections on learning in PPD converged on two principle themes - ‘Developing a philosophy of medicine’ and ‘Becoming an ethical doctor’- which corresponded to the overarching PPD theme aims of communicative learning. Students and tutors emphasised the importance of the unique learning environment of PPD tutorials for nurturing personal development and the positive impact of the renewed assessment programme on learning. Conclusions A theory-led approach to curriculum reform resulted in student engagement in the PPD curriculum and facilitated a change in student perspective about the epistemological foundation of medicine. PMID:26845777

How to assess extreme weather impacts - case European transport network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leviäkangas, P.

2010-09-01

To assess the impacts of climate change and preparing for impacts is a process. This process we must understand and learn to apply. EWENT (Extreme Weather impacts on European Networks of Transport) will be a test bench for one prospective approach. It has the following main components: 1) identifying what is "extreme", 2) assessing the change in the probabilities, 3) constructing the causal impact models, 4) finding appropriate methods of pricing and costing, 5) finding alternative strategy option, 6) assessing the efficiency of strategy option. This process follows actually the steps of standardized risk management process. Each step is challenging, but if EWENT project succeeds to assess the extreme weather impacts on European transport networks, it is one possible benchmark how to carry out similar analyses in other regions and on country level. EWENT approach could particularly useful for weather and climate information service providers, offering tools for transport authorities and financiers to assess weather risks, and then rationally managing the risks. EWENT project is financed by the European Commission and participated by met-service organisations and transport research institutes from different parts of Europe. The presentation will explain EWENT approach in detail and bring forth the findings of the first work packages.

The impact of threat of shock on the framing effect and temporal discounting: executive functions unperturbed by acute stress?

PubMed

Robinson, Oliver J; Bond, Rebecca L; Roiser, Jonathan P

2015-01-01

Anxiety and stress-related disorders constitute a large global health burden, but are still poorly understood. Prior work has demonstrated clear impacts of stress upon basic cognitive function: biasing attention toward unexpected and potentially threatening information and instantiating a negative affective bias. However, the impact that these changes have on higher-order, executive, decision-making processes is unclear. In this study, we examined the impact of a translational within-subjects stress induction (threat of unpredictable shock) on two well-established executive decision-making biases: the framing effect (N = 83), and temporal discounting (N = 36). In both studies, we demonstrate (a) clear subjective effects of stress, and (b) clear executive decision-making biases but (c) no impact of stress on these decision-making biases. Indeed, Bayes factor analyses confirmed substantial preference for decision-making models that did not include stress. We posit that while stress may induce subjective mood change and alter low-level perceptual and action processes (Robinson et al., 2013c), some higher-level executive processes remain unperturbed by these impacts. As such, although stress can induce a transient affective biases and altered mood, these need not result in poor financial decision-making.

76 FR 41712 - Approval, Disapproval, and Promulgation of Air Quality Implementation Plans; Utah; Revisions to...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-15

... beneficial effects on air quality. EPA's conclusion rests on two major analyses: (1) the national-scale... Rules will have a neutral or beneficial impact. The three significant changes in the 2002 NSR Reform... switch to the actual-to-projected actual test are likely to be environmentally beneficial. However, as...

A spatial-dynamic value transfer model of economic losses from a biological invasion

Treesearch

Thomas P. Holmes; Andrew M. Liebhold; Kent F. Kovacs; Betsy Von Holle

2010-01-01

Rigorous assessments of the economic impacts of introduced species at broad spatial scales are required to provide credible information to policy makers. We propose that economic models of aggregate damages induced by biological invasions need to link microeconomic analyses of site-specific economic damages with spatial-dynamic models of value change associated with...

Assessing Changes in Socioemotional Adjustment across Early School Transitions--New National Scales for Children at Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McDermott, Paul A.; Watkins, Marley W.; Rovine, Michael J.; Rikoon, Samuel H.

2013-01-01

This article reports the development and evidence for validity and application of the Adjustment Scales for Early Transition in Schooling (ASETS). Based on primary analyses of data from the Head Start Impact Study, a nationally representative sample (N = 3077) of randomly selected children from low-income households is configured to inform…

University Finance in Ontario. Research Monographs in Higher Education, Number 5.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lang, Daniel W.; House, Dawn; Young, Stacey; Jones, Glen A.

This study was an attempt to examine and discuss university finance issues in Ontario, Canada, within the broader context of higher education policy and to present data on trends and the impact of recent changes on Ontario universities. Multiple sources of data were used for the analyses. Higher education policy in Ontario has become increasingly…

Practices of Conformity and Resistance in the Marketisation of the Academy: Bourdieu, Professionalism and Academic Capitalism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collyer, Fran M.

2015-01-01

The paper reports on an empirical study based on qualitative interviews with staff from four Australian universities. These universities are shown to be undergoing significant social change as processes of marketisation impact on the everyday practices of academic workers. The universities are analysed as sites of contestation between the new…

Regional forest fragmentation effects on bottomland hardwood community types and resource values

Treesearch

Victor A. Rudis

1995-01-01

In human-dominated regions, forest vegetation removal impacts remaining ecosystems but regional-scale biological consequences and resource value changes are not well known. Using forest resource survey data, I examined current bottomland hardwood community types and a range of fragment size classes in the south central United States. Analyses examined resource value...

A review of the challenges and opportunities in estimating above ground forest biomass using tree-level models

Treesearch

Hailemariam Temesgen; David Affleck; Krishna Poudel; Andrew Gray; John Sessions

2015-01-01

Accurate biomass measurements and analyses are critical components in quantifying carbon stocks and sequestration rates, assessing potential impacts due to climate change, locating bio-energy processing plants, and mapping and planning fuel treatments. To this end, biomass equations will remain a key component of future carbon measurements and estimation. As...

Conversion to pine: Changes in timing and magnitude of high and low flows.

Treesearch

Yusuf Serengil; Wayne T. Swank; Mark S. Riedel; James M. Vose

2011-01-01

Understanding watershed responses to extreme events is important for assessing potential impacts of floods, droughts, episodic pollution, and other external driving variables on watershed resources. In this study, we combine trend and frequency analyses with paired watershed techniques to evaluate the long-term high- and low-flow data from Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory...

CBT for eating disorders: The impact of early changes in eating pathology on later changes in personality pathology, anxiety and depression.

PubMed

Turner, Hannah; Marshall, Emily; Wood, Francesca; Stopa, Lusia; Waller, Glenn

2016-02-01

Whilst studies have consistently identified early symptom reduction as an important predictor of treatment outcome, the impact of early change on common comorbid features has not been investigated. This study of CBT for eating disorders explored patterns of early change in eating pathology and longer-term change in personality pathology, anxiety and depression. It also explored the impact of early change in eating pathology on overall change in personality pathology, anxiety and depression. Participants were 179 adults diagnosed with eating disorders who were offered a course of CBT in an out-patient community eating disorders service in the UK. Patients completed a measure of eating disorder psychopathology at the start of treatment and following the 6th session. They also completed measures of personality disorder cognitions, anxiety and depression at the start and end of treatment. There were significant changes in eating pathology over the first six sessions of treatment. Significant improvements were also seen in personality disorder pathology, anxiety and depression by the end of therapy. Effect sizes were medium to large for both completer and intention to treat analyses. Early changes in eating pathology were associated with later changes in common comorbid features, with early reduction in restraint being a key predictor. These findings demonstrate that early symptom change can be achieved in CBT for eating disorders when delivered in routine clinical practice. Such change has long-term benefits that go beyond the domain of eating pathology, enhancing change in personality pathology, anxiety and depression. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Development and Use of a Flight Optimization System Model of a C-130E Transport Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Desch, Jeremy D.

1995-01-01

The Systems Analysis Branch at NASA Langley Research Center conducts a variety of aircraft design and analyses studies. These studies include the prediction of characteristics of a particular conceptual design, analyses of designs that already exist, and assessments of the impact of technology on current and future aircraft. The FLight OPtimization System (FLOPS) is a tool used for aircraft systems analysis and design. A baseline input model of a Lockheed C-130E was generated for the Flight Optimization System. This FLOPS model can be used to conduct design-trade studies and technology impact assessments. The input model was generated using standard input data such as basic geometries and mission specifications. All of the other data needed to determine the airplane performance is computed internally by FLOPS. The model was then calibrated to reproduce the actual airplane performance from flight test data. This allows a systems analyzer to change a specific item of geometry or mission definition in the FLOPS input file and evaluate the resulting change in performance from the output file. The baseline model of the C-130E was used to analyze the effects of implementing upper wing surface blowing on the airplane. This involved removing the turboprop engines that were on the C-130E and replacing them with turbofan engines. An investigation of the improvements in airplane performance with the new engines could be conducted within the Flight Optimization System. Although a thorough analysis was not completed, the impact of this change on basic mission performance was investigated.

Coping with daily thermal variability: behavioural performance of an ectotherm model in a warming world.

PubMed

Rojas, José M; Castillo, Simón B; Folguera, Guillermo; Abades, Sebastián; Bozinovic, Francisco

2014-01-01

Global climate change poses one of the greatest threats to species persistence. Most analyses of the potential biological impacts have focused on changes in mean temperature, but changes in thermal variance will also impact organisms and populations. We assessed the effects of acclimation to daily variance of temperature on dispersal and exploratory behavior in the terrestrial isopod Porcellio laevis in an open field. Acclimation treatments were 24 ± 0, 24 ± 4 and 24 ± 8 °C. Because the performance of ectotherms relates nonlinearly to temperature, we predicted that animals acclimated to a higher daily thermal variation should minimize the time exposed in the centre of open field, --i.e. increase the linearity of displacements. Consistent with our prediction, isopods acclimated to a thermally variable environment reduce their exploratory behaviour, hypothetically to minimize their exposure to adverse environmental conditions. This scenario as well as the long latency of animals after releases acclimated to variable environments is consistent with this idea. We suggested that to develop more realistic predictions about the biological impacts of climate change, one must consider the interactions between the mean and variance of environmental temperature on animals' performance.

Coping with Daily Thermal Variability: Behavioural Performance of an Ectotherm Model in a Warming World

PubMed Central

Rojas, José M.; Castillo, Simón B.; Folguera, Guillermo; Abades, Sebastián; Bozinovic, Francisco

2014-01-01

Global climate change poses one of the greatest threats to species persistence. Most analyses of the potential biological impacts have focused on changes in mean temperature, but changes in thermal variance will also impact organisms and populations. We assessed the effects of acclimation to daily variance of temperature on dispersal and exploratory behavior in the terrestrial isopod Porcellio laevis in an open field. Acclimation treatments were 24±0, 24±4 and 24±8°C. Because the performance of ectotherms relates nonlinearly to temperature, we predicted that animals acclimated to a higher daily thermal variation should minimize the time exposed in the centre of open field, – i.e. increase the linearity of displacements. Consistent with our prediction, isopods acclimated to a thermally variable environment reduce their exploratory behaviour, hypothetically to minimize their exposure to adverse environmental conditions. This scenario as well as the long latency of animals after releases acclimated to variable environments is consistent with this idea. We suggested that to develop more realistic predictions about the biological impacts of climate change, one must consider the interactions between the mean and variance of environmental temperature on animals' performance. PMID:25207653

The impact of grape seed extract treatment on blood pressure changes: A meta-analysis of 16 randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Zhang, Haili; Liu, Shuang; Li, Lan; Liu, Shisong; Liu, Shuqi; Mi, Jia; Tian, Geng

2016-08-01

Several clinical trials have shown that grape seed extract can reduce blood pressure, but the results are often irreproducible. We therefore sought to systematically evaluate the impact of grape seed extract treatment on the changes of systolic/diastolic blood pressure (SBP/DBP) by meta-analyzing available randomized controlled trials. Trial selection and data extraction were completed independently by 2 investigators. Effect-size estimates were expressed as weighted mean difference (WMD) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Twelve articles involving 16 clinical trials and 810 study subjects were analyzed. Overall analyses found significant reductions for SBP (WMD = -6.077; 95% CI: -10.736 to -1.419; P = 0.011) and DBP (WMD = -2.803; 95% CI: -4.417 to -1.189; P = 0.001) after grape seed extract treatment. In subgroup analyses, there were significant reductions in younger subjects (mean age < 50 years) for SBP (WMD = -6.049; 95% CI: -10.223 to -1.875; P = 0.005) and DBP (WMD = -3.116; 95% CI: -4.773 to -1.459; P < 0.001), in obese subjects (mean body mass index ≥ 25 kg/m) for SBP (WMD = -4.469; 95% CI: -6.628 to -2.310; P < 0.001), and in patients with metabolic syndrome for SBP (WMD = -8.487; 95% CI: -11.869 to -5.106; P < 0.001). Further meta-regression analyses showed that age, body mass index, and baseline blood pressure were negatively associated with the significant reductions of SBP and DBP after treatment. There was no indication of publication bias. Our findings demonstrate that grape seed extract exerted a beneficial impact on blood pressure, and this impact was more obvious in younger or obese subjects, as well as in patients with metabolic disorders. In view of the small sample size involved, we agree that confirmation of our findings in a large-scale, long-term, multiple-dose randomized controlled trial, especially among hypertensive patients is warranted.

People, pollution and pathogens - Global change impacts in mountain freshwater ecosystems.

PubMed

Schmeller, Dirk S; Loyau, Adeline; Bao, Kunshan; Brack, Werner; Chatzinotas, Antonis; De Vleeschouwer, Francois; Friesen, Jan; Gandois, Laure; Hansson, Sophia V; Haver, Marilen; Le Roux, Gaël; Shen, Ji; Teisserenc, Roman; Vredenburg, Vance T

2018-05-01

Mountain catchments provide for the livelihood of more than half of humankind, and have become a key destination for tourist and recreation activities globally. Mountain ecosystems are generally considered to be less complex and less species diverse due to the harsh environmental conditions. As such, they are also more sensitive to the various impacts of the Anthropocene. For this reason, mountain regions may serve as sentinels of change and provide ideal ecosystems for studying climate and global change impacts on biodiversity. We here review different facets of anthropogenic impacts on mountain freshwater ecosystems. We put particular focus on micropollutants and their distribution and redistribution due to hydrological extremes, their direct influence on water quality and their indirect influence on ecosystem health via changes of freshwater species and their interactions. We show that those changes may drive pathogen establishment in new environments with harmful consequences for freshwater species, but also for the human population. Based on the reviewed literature, we recommend reconstructing the recent past of anthropogenic impact through sediment analyses, to focus efforts on small, but highly productive waterbodies, and to collect data on the occurrence and variability of microorganisms, biofilms, plankton species and key species, such as amphibians due to their bioindicator value for ecosystem health and water quality. The newly gained knowledge can then be used to develop a comprehensive framework of indicators to robustly inform policy and decision making on current and future risks for ecosystem health and human well-being. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Integrated Assessment of ``Dangerous'' Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Schneider, Stephen H.

2004-04-01

Climate policy decisions are being made despite layers of uncertainty. Such decisions directly influence the potential for ``dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.'' We mapped a metric for this concept, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment of climate impacts, onto probability distributions of future climate change produced from uncertainty in key parameters of the coupled social-natural system-climate sensitivity, climate damages, and discount rate. Analyses with a simple integrated assessment model found that, under midrange assumptions, endogenously calculated, optimal climate policy controls can reduce the probability of dangerous anthropogenic interference from ~45% under minimal controls to near zero.

Hydrologic and water quality impacts of biofuel feedstock production in the Ohio River Basin

DOE PAGES

Demissie, Yonas; Yan, Eugene; Wu, May

2017-07-10

Our study addresses the uncertainties related to potential changes in land use and management and associated impacts on hydrology and water quality resulting from increased production of biofuel from the conventional and cellulosic feedstock. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was then used to assess the impacts on regional and field scale evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, stream flow, sediment, and nutrient loadings in the Ohio River Basin. The model incorporates spatially and temporally detailed hydrologic, climate and agricultural practice data that are pertinent to simulate biofuel feedstock production, watershed hydrology and water quality. Three future biofuel production scenarios in themore » region were considered, including a feedstock projection from the DOE Billion-Ton (BT2) Study, a change in corn rotations to continuous corn, and harvest of 50% corn stover. The impacts were evaluated on the basis of relative changes in hydrology and water quality from historical baseline and future business-as-usual conditions of the basin. The overall impact on water quality is an order of magnitude higher than the impact on hydrology. For all the three future scenarios, the sub-basin results indicated an overall increase in annual evapotranspiration of up to 6%, a decrease in runoff up to 10% and minimal change in soil moisture. The sediment and phosphorous loading at both regional and field levels increased considerably (up to 40–90%) for all the biofuel feedstock scenario considered, while the nitrogen loading increased up to 45% in some regions under the BT2 Study scenario, decreased up to 10% when corn are grown continuously instead of in rotations, and changed minimally when 50% of the stover are harvested. Field level analyses revealed significant variability in hydrology and water quality impacts that can further be used to identify suitable locations for the feedstock productions without causing major impacts on water quantity and quality.« less

Hydrologic and water quality impacts of biofuel feedstock production in the Ohio River Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Demissie, Yonas; Yan, Eugene; Wu, May

Our study addresses the uncertainties related to potential changes in land use and management and associated impacts on hydrology and water quality resulting from increased production of biofuel from the conventional and cellulosic feedstock. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was then used to assess the impacts on regional and field scale evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, stream flow, sediment, and nutrient loadings in the Ohio River Basin. The model incorporates spatially and temporally detailed hydrologic, climate and agricultural practice data that are pertinent to simulate biofuel feedstock production, watershed hydrology and water quality. Three future biofuel production scenarios in themore » region were considered, including a feedstock projection from the DOE Billion-Ton (BT2) Study, a change in corn rotations to continuous corn, and harvest of 50% corn stover. The impacts were evaluated on the basis of relative changes in hydrology and water quality from historical baseline and future business-as-usual conditions of the basin. The overall impact on water quality is an order of magnitude higher than the impact on hydrology. For all the three future scenarios, the sub-basin results indicated an overall increase in annual evapotranspiration of up to 6%, a decrease in runoff up to 10% and minimal change in soil moisture. The sediment and phosphorous loading at both regional and field levels increased considerably (up to 40–90%) for all the biofuel feedstock scenario considered, while the nitrogen loading increased up to 45% in some regions under the BT2 Study scenario, decreased up to 10% when corn are grown continuously instead of in rotations, and changed minimally when 50% of the stover are harvested. Field level analyses revealed significant variability in hydrology and water quality impacts that can further be used to identify suitable locations for the feedstock productions without causing major impacts on water quantity and quality.« less

Rural Nevada and climate change: vulnerability, beliefs, and risk perception.

PubMed

Safi, Ahmad Saleh; Smith, William James; Liu, Zhnongwei

2012-06-01

In this article, we present the results of a study investigating the influence of vulnerability to climate change as a function of physical vulnerability, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity on climate change risk perception. In 2008/2009, we surveyed Nevada ranchers and farmers to assess their climate change-related beliefs, and risk perceptions, political orientations, and socioeconomic characteristics. Ranchers' and farmers' sensitivity to climate change was measured through estimating the proportion of their household income originating from highly scarce water-dependent agriculture to the total income. Adaptive capacity was measured as a combination of the Social Status Index and the Poverty Index. Utilizing water availability and use, and population distribution GIS databases; we assessed water resource vulnerability in Nevada by zip code as an indicator of physical vulnerability to climate change. We performed correlation tests and multiple regression analyses to examine the impact of vulnerability and its three distinct components on risk perception. We find that vulnerability is not a significant determinant of risk perception. Physical vulnerability alone also does not impact risk perception. Both sensitivity and adaptive capacity increase risk perception. While age is not a significant determinant of it, gender plays an important role in shaping risk perception. Yet, general beliefs such as political orientations and climate change-specific beliefs such as believing in the anthropogenic causes of climate change and connecting the locally observed impacts (in this case drought) to climate change are the most prominent determinants of risk perception. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Modeled Sea Level Rise Impacts on Coastal Ecosystems at Six Major Estuaries on Florida’s Gulf Coast: Implications for Adaptation Planning

PubMed Central

Birch, Anne P.; Brenner, Jorge; Gordon, Doria R.

2015-01-01

The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) was applied at six major estuaries along Florida’s Gulf Coast (Pensacola Bay, St. Andrews/Choctawhatchee Bays, Apalachicola Bay, Southern Big Bend, Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor) to provide quantitative and spatial information on how coastal ecosystems may change with sea level rise (SLR) and to identify how this information can be used to inform adaption planning. High resolution LiDAR-derived elevation data was utilized under three SLR scenarios: 0.7 m, 1 m and 2 m through the year 2100 and uncertainty analyses were conducted on selected input parameters at three sites. Results indicate that the extent, spatial orientation and relative composition of coastal ecosystems at the study areas may substantially change with SLR. Under the 1 m SLR scenario, total predicted impacts for all study areas indicate that coastal forest (-69,308 ha; -18%), undeveloped dry land (-28,444 ha; -2%) and tidal flat (-25,556 ha; -47%) will likely face the greatest loss in cover by the year 2100. The largest potential gains in cover were predicted for saltmarsh (+32,922 ha; +88%), transitional saltmarsh (+23,645 ha; na) and mangrove forest (+12,583 ha; +40%). The Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay study areas were predicted to experience the greatest net loss in coastal wetlands The uncertainty analyses revealed low to moderate changes in results when some numerical SLAMM input parameters were varied highlighting the value of collecting long-term sedimentation, accretion and erosion data to improve SLAMM precision. The changes predicted by SLAMM will affect exposure of adjacent human communities to coastal hazards and ecosystem functions potentially resulting in impacts to property values, infrastructure investment and insurance rates. The results and process presented here can be used as a guide for communities vulnerable to SLR to identify and prioritize adaptation strategies that slow and/or accommodate the changes underway. PMID:26207914

Modeled Sea Level Rise Impacts on Coastal Ecosystems at Six Major Estuaries on Florida's Gulf Coast: Implications for Adaptation Planning.

PubMed

Geselbracht, Laura L; Freeman, Kathleen; Birch, Anne P; Brenner, Jorge; Gordon, Doria R

2015-01-01

The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) was applied at six major estuaries along Florida's Gulf Coast (Pensacola Bay, St. Andrews/Choctawhatchee Bays, Apalachicola Bay, Southern Big Bend, Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor) to provide quantitative and spatial information on how coastal ecosystems may change with sea level rise (SLR) and to identify how this information can be used to inform adaption planning. High resolution LiDAR-derived elevation data was utilized under three SLR scenarios: 0.7 m, 1 m and 2 m through the year 2100 and uncertainty analyses were conducted on selected input parameters at three sites. Results indicate that the extent, spatial orientation and relative composition of coastal ecosystems at the study areas may substantially change with SLR. Under the 1 m SLR scenario, total predicted impacts for all study areas indicate that coastal forest (-69,308 ha; -18%), undeveloped dry land (-28,444 ha; -2%) and tidal flat (-25,556 ha; -47%) will likely face the greatest loss in cover by the year 2100. The largest potential gains in cover were predicted for saltmarsh (+32,922 ha; +88%), transitional saltmarsh (+23,645 ha; na) and mangrove forest (+12,583 ha; +40%). The Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay study areas were predicted to experience the greatest net loss in coastal wetlands The uncertainty analyses revealed low to moderate changes in results when some numerical SLAMM input parameters were varied highlighting the value of collecting long-term sedimentation, accretion and erosion data to improve SLAMM precision. The changes predicted by SLAMM will affect exposure of adjacent human communities to coastal hazards and ecosystem functions potentially resulting in impacts to property values, infrastructure investment and insurance rates. The results and process presented here can be used as a guide for communities vulnerable to SLR to identify and prioritize adaptation strategies that slow and/or accommodate the changes underway.

Impact of disease, cognitive and behavioural factors on caregiver outcome in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

PubMed

Watermeyer, Tamlyn J; Brown, Richard G; Sidle, Katie C L; Oliver, David J; Allen, Christopher; Karlsson, Joanna; Ellis, Cathy; Shaw, Christopher E; Al-Chalabi, Ammar; Goldstein, Laura H

2015-01-01

Up to 50% of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) show mild to moderate cognitive-behavioural change alongside their progressive functional impairment. This study examines the relative impact of patients' disease symptoms, behavioural change and current executive function and social cognition abilities on psychosocial outcomes in spouse caregivers of people with ALS. Thirty-five spouse caregivers rated their own levels of depression and anxiety, subjective burden and marital satisfaction. Caregivers also rated their partner's everyday behaviour. The patients were assessed for disease severity and cognitive function, with composite scores derived for executive function and social cognition. Regression analyses revealed that caregiver burden was predicted by the severity of patients' limb involvement and behavioural problems. Depression was predicted by patients' limb involvement, while behavioural problems and patient age predicted caregiver anxiety. Current marital satisfaction was predicted by patient behavioural problems beyond the level of pre-illness marital satisfaction. In conclusion, the study highlights the potential impact of ALS patients' functional impairment and behavioural change on ALS caregivers' psychosocial functioning. Clinical communication with ALS families should emphasise both physical and psychological challenges presented by the disease.

Analyzing climate change impacts on water resources under uncertainty using an integrated simulation-optimization approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, X. W.; Li, Y. P.; Nie, S.; Fan, Y. R.; Huang, G. H.

2018-01-01

An integrated simulation-optimization (ISO) approach is developed for assessing climate change impacts on water resources. In the ISO, uncertainties presented as both interval numbers and probability distributions can be reflected. Moreover, ISO permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. A snowmelt-precipitation-driven watershed (Kaidu watershed) in northwest China is selected as the study case for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed method. Results of meteorological projections disclose that the incremental trend of temperature (e.g., minimum and maximum values) and precipitation exist. Results also reveal that (i) the system uncertainties would significantly affect water resources allocation pattern (including target and shortage); (ii) water shortage would be enhanced from 2016 to 2070; and (iii) the more the inflow amount decreases, the higher estimated water shortage rates are. The ISO method is useful for evaluating climate change impacts within a watershed system with complicated uncertainties and helping identify appropriate water resources management strategies hedging against drought.

[Impact of demographic changes on health care expenditure in Germany: an analysis considering the expenditures of decedents].

PubMed

Gandjour, A; Ihle, P; Schubert, I

2008-02-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of demographic changes on future health care expenditure of the German social health insurances considering the expenditures of survivors and decedents by age. The study analysed data from 269,646 members up to the age of 99 years of the AOK - one of Germany's largest social health insurers - in the State of Hesse in 2000/2001. In order to determine future health care expenditures, per-capita expenditures by age for outpatient, inpatient, rehabilitation, and nursing services of survivors and decedents (death within the next 12 months) were multiplied by the estimated number of survivors and decedents by age in Germany in 2020, 2035 und 2050. Expenditures for all ages were summed together. The paper shows that demographic changes until 2050 will lead to an increase of health care expenditures by 20% in total or less than 1% annually. Considering the future re-duction in workforce, demographic changes until 2050 will result in an estimated increase in health care expenditures per employee by about 57% (undifferentiated model). Considering the cost of survivors and decedents separately, this increase will amount to 50%. Hence, undifferentiated models overestimate the impact of demographic changes by about 10%.

Potential impacts of climate change on water quality in a shallow reservoir in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Chen; Lai, Shiyu; Gao, Xueping; Xu, Liping

2015-10-01

To study the potential effects of climate change on water quality in a shallow reservoir in China, the field data analysis method is applied to data collected over a given monitoring period. Nine water quality parameters (water temperature, ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, nitrite nitrogen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen) and three climate indicators for 20 years (1992-2011) are considered. The annual trends exhibit significant trends with respect to certain water quality and climate parameters. Five parameters exhibit significant seasonality differences in the monthly means between the two decades (1992-2001 and 2002-2011) of the monitoring period. Non-parametric regression of the statistical analyses is performed to explore potential key climate drivers of water quality in the reservoir. The results indicate that seasonal changes in temperature and rainfall may have positive impacts on water quality. However, an extremely cold spring and high wind speed are likely to affect the self-stabilising equilibrium states of the reservoir, which requires attention in the future. The results suggest that land use changes have important impact on nitrogen load. This study provides useful information regarding the potential effects of climate change on water quality in developing countries.

Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

2016-01-01

The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

Indicators for tracking European vulnerabilities to the risks of infectious disease transmission due to climate change.

PubMed

Suk, Jonathan E; Ebi, Kristie L; Vose, David; Wint, Willy; Alexander, Neil; Mintiens, Koen; Semenza, Jan C

2014-02-21

A wide range of infectious diseases may change their geographic range, seasonality and incidence due to climate change, but there is limited research exploring health vulnerabilities to climate change. In order to address this gap, pan-European vulnerability indices were developed for 2035 and 2055, based upon the definition vulnerability = impact/adaptive capacity. Future impacts were projected based upon changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, whilst adaptive capacity was developed from the results of a previous pan-European study. The results were plotted via ArcGISTM to EU regional (NUTS2) levels for 2035 and 2055 and ranked according to quintiles. The models demonstrate regional variations with respect to projected climate-related infectious disease challenges that they will face, and with respect to projected vulnerabilities after accounting for regional adaptive capacities. Regions with higher adaptive capacities, such as in Scandinavia and central Europe, will likely be better able to offset any climate change impacts and are thus generally less vulnerable than areas with lower adaptive capacities. The indices developed here provide public health planners with information to guide prioritisation of activities aimed at strengthening regional preparedness for the health impacts of climate change. There are, however, many limitations and uncertainties when modeling health vulnerabilities. To further advance the field, the importance of variables such as coping capacity and governance should be better accounted for, and there is the need to systematically collect and analyse the interlinkages between the numerous and ever-expanding environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiologic datasets so as to promote the public health capacity to detect, forecast, and prepare for the health threats due to climate change.

Indicators for Tracking European Vulnerabilities to the Risks of Infectious Disease Transmission due to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Suk, Jonathan E.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Vose, David; Wint, Willy; Alexander, Neil; Mintiens, Koen; Semenza, Jan C.

2014-01-01

A wide range of infectious diseases may change their geographic range, seasonality and incidence due to climate change, but there is limited research exploring health vulnerabilities to climate change. In order to address this gap, pan-European vulnerability indices were developed for 2035 and 2055, based upon the definition vulnerability = impact/adaptive capacity. Future impacts were projected based upon changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, whilst adaptive capacity was developed from the results of a previous pan-European study. The results were plotted via ArcGISTM to EU regional (NUTS2) levels for 2035 and 2055 and ranked according to quintiles. The models demonstrate regional variations with respect to projected climate-related infectious disease challenges that they will face, and with respect to projected vulnerabilities after accounting for regional adaptive capacities. Regions with higher adaptive capacities, such as in Scandinavia and central Europe, will likely be better able to offset any climate change impacts and are thus generally less vulnerable than areas with lower adaptive capacities. The indices developed here provide public health planners with information to guide prioritisation of activities aimed at strengthening regional preparedness for the health impacts of climate change. There are, however, many limitations and uncertainties when modeling health vulnerabilities. To further advance the field, the importance of variables such as coping capacity and governance should be better accounted for, and there is the need to systematically collect and analyse the interlinkages between the numerous and ever-expanding environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiologic datasets so as to promote the public health capacity to detect, forecast, and prepare for the health threats due to climate change. PMID:24566049

The maintaining and improving effect of grandchild care provision on elders' mental health-Evidence from longitudinal study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Feng-Jen

2016-01-01

This study aims to determine the impact of grandchild care provision on elders' mental health by self-comparison and longitudinal study design. Information of 2930 grandparents from the Study of Health and Living Status of the Middle-Aged and Elderly in Taiwan were analysed. Elders' mental health was evaluated by Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale in both 2003 and 2007. Participants were divided into 4 groups based on their changing behaviour of caring for grandchildren from 2003 to 2007. Chi-square test was used to compare changes in elders' individual characteristics and total CESD scores between and within groups. ANOVA was used to compare the means of elders' depressive symptoms between groups while paired-t test was used to compare changes in elders' depression symptoms from 2003 to 2007. Logistic regression was performed to determine the associations between elders' changing behaviour of caring for grandchildren and changes in depressive symptoms. Elders continuously caring for grandchildren or started to take care of grandchildren significantly felt happier and enjoyed life more than before and more than elders who do not provide grandchild care. Logistic regression analyses exploring the impact of grandchild care provision found that elders provided no grandchild care had worst mental health amongst all. Elders stopped providing grandchild care had significantly higher risk of developing depressive symptoms (OR=1.40) than elders provided no grandchild care at all time. By self-comparison, this study illustrates how taking care of grandchildren maintains elders' mental health, especially against them from loneliness and depression. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

North Atlantic Aerosol Properties for Radiative Impact Assessments. Derived from Column Closure Analyses in TARFOX and ACE-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Philip A.; Bergstrom, Robert A.; Schmid, Beat; Livingston, John M.

2000-01-01

Aerosol effects on atmospheric radiative fluxes provide a forcing function that can change the climate in potentially significant ways. This aerosol radiative forcing is a major source of uncertainty in understanding the climate change of the past century and predicting future climate. To help reduce this uncertainty, the 1996 Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX) and the 1997 Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-2) measured the properties and radiative effects of aerosols over the Atlantic Ocean. Both experiments used remote and in situ measurements from aircraft and the surface, coordinated with overpasses by a variety of satellite radiometers. TARFOX focused on the urban-industrial haze plume flowing from the United States over the western Atlantic, whereas ACE-2 studied aerosols over the eastern Atlantic from both Europe and Africa. These aerosols often have a marked impact on satellite-measured radiances. However, accurate derivation of flux changes, or radiative forcing, from the satellite measured radiances or retrieved aerosol optical depths (AODs) remains a difficult challenge. Here we summarize key initial results from TARFOX and ACE-2, with a focus on closure analyses that yield aerosol microphysical models for use in improved assessments of flux changes. We show how one such model gives computed radiative flux sensitivities (dF/dAOD) that agree with values measured in TARFOX and preliminary values computed for the polluted marine boundary layer in ACE-2. A companion paper uses the model to compute aerosol-induced flux changes over the North Atlantic from AVHRR-derived AOD fields.

Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles: Drivers and Impacts of Adoption.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levinson, Rebecca Sobel; West, Todd H.; Manley, Dawn K.

We present scenario and parametric analyses of the US light duty vehicle (LDV) stock, sim- ulating the evolution of the stock in order to assess the potential role and impacts of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). The analysis probes the competition of FCEVs with other LDVs and the effects of FCEV adoption on LDV fuel use and emissions. We parameterize commodity and technology prices in order to explore the sensitivities of FCEV sales and emissions to oil, natural gas, battery technology, fuel cell technology, and hydrogen produc- tion prices. We additionally explore the effects of vehicle purchasing incentives for FCEVs,more » identifying potential impacts and tipping points. Our analyses lead to the following conclu- sions: (1) In the business as usual scenario, FCEVs comprise 7% of all new LDV sales by 2050. (2) FCEV adoption will not substantially impact green house gas emissions without either policy intervention, significant increases in natural gas prices, or technology improve- ments that motivate low carbon hydrogen production. (3) FCEV technology cost reductions have a much greater potential for impact on FCEV sales than hydrogen fuel cost reductions. (4) FCEV purchasing incentives must be both substantial and sustained in order to motivate lasting changes to FCEV adoption.« less

Long-term analyses of snow dynamics within the french Alps on the 1900-2100 period. Analyses of historical snow water equivalent observations, modelisations and projections of a hundred of snow courses.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathevet, T.; Joel, G.; Gottardi, F.; Nemoz, B.

2017-12-01

The aim of this communication is to present analyses of climate variability and change on snow water equivalent (SWE) observations, reconstructions (1900-2016) and scenarii (2020-2100) of a hundred of snow courses dissiminated within the french Alps. This issue became particularly important since a decade, in regions where snow variability had a large impact on water resources availability, poor snow conditions in ski resorts and artificial snow production. As a water resources manager in french mountainuous regions, EDF (french hydropower company) has developed and managed a hydrometeorological network since 1950. A recent data rescue research allowed to digitize long term SWE manual measurments of a hundred of snow courses within the french Alps. EDF have been operating an automatic SWE sensors network, complementary to the snow course network. Based on numerous SWE observations time-series and snow accumulation and melt model (Garavaglia et al., 2017), continuous daily historical SWE time-series have been reconstructed within the 1950-2016 period. These reconstructions have been extented to 1900 using 20 CR reanalyses (ANATEM method, Kuentz et al., 2015) and up to 2100 using GIEC Climate Change scenarii. Considering various mountainous areas within the french Alps, this communication focuses on : (1) long term (1900-2016) analyses of variability and trend of total precipitation, air temperature, snow water equivalent, snow line altitude, snow season length , (2) long term variability of hydrological regime of snow dominated watersheds and (3) future trends (2020 -2100) using GIEC Climate Change scenarii. Comparing historical period (1950-1984) to recent period (1984-2016), quantitative results within a region in the north Alps (Maurienne) shows an increase of air temperature by 1.2 °C, an increase of snow line height by 200m, a reduction of SWE by 200 mm/year and a reduction of snow season length by 15 days. These analyses will be extended from north to south of the Alps, on a region spanning 200 km. Caracterisation of the increase of snow line height and SWE reduction are particularly important at a local and watershed scale. This long term change of snow dynamics within moutainuous regions both impacts snow resorts and artificial snow production developments and multi-purposes dam reservoirs managments.

Does temporal variation of mercury levels in Arctic seabirds reflect changes in global environmental contamination, or a modification of Arctic marine food web functioning?

PubMed

Fort, Jérôme; Grémillet, David; Traisnel, Gwendoline; Amélineau, Françoise; Bustamante, Paco

2016-04-01

Studying long-term trends of contaminants in Arctic biota is essential to better understand impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change on the exposure of sensitive species and marine ecosystems. We concurrently measured temporal changes (2006-2014) in mercury (Hg) contamination of little auks (Alle alle; the most abundant Arctic seabird) and in their major zooplankton prey species (Calanoid copepods, Themisto libellula, Gammarus spp.). We found an increasing contamination of the food-chain in East Greenland during summer over the last decade. More specifically, bird contamination (determined by body feather analyses) has increased at a rate of 3.4% per year. Conversely, bird exposure to Hg during winter in the northwest Atlantic (determined by head feather analyses) decreased over the study period (at a rate of 1.5% per year), although winter concentrations remained consistently higher than during summer. By combining mercury levels measured in birds and zooplankton to isotopic analyses, our results demonstrate that inter-annual variations of Hg levels in little auks reflect changes in food-chain contamination, rather than a reorganization of the food web and a modification of seabird trophic ecology. They therefore underline the value of little auks, and Arctic seabirds in general, as bio-indicators of long-term changes in environmental contamination. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of anal sphincter injury on perceived body image.

PubMed

Iles, David; Khan, Rabia; Naidoo, Kristina; Kearney, Rohna; Myers, Jenny; Reid, Fiona

2017-05-01

Obstetric anal sphincter injury is common but the effect on body image is unreported. The aim of this study was to explore patient perceived changes in body image and other psychological aspects in women attending a perineal follow-up clinic. This retrospective study analysed women's responses to a self-reported questionnaire. Consecutive women with anal sphincter injury who attended a United Kingdom Maternity Hospital perineal follow-up clinic between January 1999 and January 2012 were identified and the records obtained and reviewed. Multivariate regression analyses were performed to examine variables influencing self-reported change in body image. Questionnaires and operation notes were analysed from 422 women who attended at a median of four months after delivery. 222 (53%) reported a change in body image with 80 (19%) reporting lower self-esteem and 75 (18%) a change in their personality due to the change in body image. 248 (59%) perceived an anatomical change due to the delivery. Factors associated with increased likelihood of reporting a change in body image were reporting a perceived change in anatomy due to the delivery, adjusted OR 6.11 (3.56-10.49), anal incontinence, OR 1.97 (1.16-3.36), and delivery by forceps, OR 2.59 (1.23-5.43). This is the first study to quantify body image changes in women after anal sphincter injury sustained in childbirth. These were found to be very common, affecting up to 50% of women. The study has several limitations but it does highlight the significant psychosocial problems of negative self-esteem and personality changes associated with a perceived change in body image that has not previously been reported. It also outlines the further research questions that need to be addressed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global Change Impacts on Future Fire Regimes: Distinguishing Between Climate-limited vs Ignition-Limited Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeley, J. E.; Syphard, A. D.

2016-12-01

Global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts. Predicting how climates will impact future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned, however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models are needed that predict future seasonal temperature changes if we are to forecast future fire regimes in these forests. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited, and because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science, it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant on some landscapes, but where climate is relevant the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as by feedback processes of fire effects on vegetation distribution, plus policy changes in how we manage ecosystems.

Comparative costs and cost-effectiveness of behavioural interventions as part of HIV prevention strategies.

PubMed

Hsu, Justine; Zinsou, Cyprien; Parkhurst, Justin; N'Dour, Marguerite; Foyet, Léger; Mueller, Dirk H

2013-01-01

Behavioural interventions have been widely integrated in HIV/AIDS social marketing prevention strategies and are considered valuable in settings with high levels of risk behaviours and low levels of HIV/AIDS awareness. Despite their widespread application, there is a lack of economic evaluations comparing different behaviour change communication methods. This paper analyses the costs to increase awareness and the cost-effectiveness to influence behaviour change for five interventions in Benin. Cost and cost-effectiveness analyses used economic costs and primary effectiveness data drawn from surveys. Costs were collected for provider inputs required to implement the interventions in 2009 and analysed by 'person reached'. Cost-effectiveness was analysed by 'person reporting systematic condom use'. Sensitivity analyses were performed on all uncertain variables and major assumptions. Cost-per-person reached varies by method, with public outreach events the least costly (US$2.29) and billboards the most costly (US$25.07). Influence on reported behaviour was limited: only three of the five interventions were found to have a significant statistical correlation with reported condom use (i.e. magazines, radio broadcasts, public outreach events). Cost-effectiveness ratios per person reporting systematic condom use resulted in the following ranking: magazines, radio and public outreach events. Sensitivity analyses indicate rankings are insensitive to variation of key parameters although ratios must be interpreted with caution. This analysis suggests that while individual interventions are an attractive use of resources to raise awareness, this may not translate into a cost-effective impact on behaviour change. The study found that the extensive reach of public outreach events did not seem to influence behaviour change as cost-effectively when compared with magazines or radio broadcasts. Behavioural interventions are context-specific and their effectiveness influenced by a multitude of factors. Further analyses using a quasi-experimental design would be useful to programme implementers and policy makers as they face decisions regarding which HIV prevention activities to prioritize.

Regional assessment of Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean: the CIRCE project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, A.

2011-12-01

The CIRCE project has developed for the first time an assessment of the climate change impacts in the Mediterranean area. The objectives of the project are: to predict and to quantify physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area; to evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and the economy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area; to develop an integrated approach to understand combined effects of climate change; and to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies in collaboration with regional stakeholders. The CIRCE Project, coordinated by the Instituto Nazionale di Geofisca e Vulcanologia, started on 1st April 2007 and ended in a policy conference in Rome on June 2011. CIRCE involves 64 partners from Europe, Middle East and North Africa working together to evaluate the best strategies of adaptation to the climate change in the Mediterranean basin. CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area bringing together the natural sciences community and social community in a new integrated and comprehensive way. The project has investigated how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle. Recent observed modifications in the climate variables and detected trends will be compared. The economic and social consequences of climate change are evaluated by analysing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic system. CIRCE has produced results about the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their impacts is also assessed. A rigorous common framework, including a set of quantitative indicators developed specifically for the Mediterranean environment was be developed and used in collaboration with regional stakeholders. Possible adaptation and mitigation strategies were be identified. The integrated results discussed by the project CIRCE will be presented in the first Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean area, to be published in September 2011 and will make a powerful contribution to the definition and evaluation of adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Response of the European ecosystems to climate change: a modelling approach for the 21st century.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dury, Marie; Warnant, Pierre; François, Louis; Henrot, Alexandra; Favre, Eric; Hambuckers, Alain

2010-05-01

According to projections, over the 21st century, significant climatic changes appear and will be strengthened all over the world with the continuing increase of the atmospheric CO2 level. Climate will be generally warmer with notably changes in the seasonality and in the precipitation regime. These changes will have major impacts on the environment and on the biodiversity of natural ecosystems. Geographic distribution of ecosystems may be modified since species will be driven to migrate towards more suitable areas (e. g., shifting of the arctic tree lines). The CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Carbon Assimilation in the Biosphere) forced with 21st century climate scenarios of the IPCC (ARPEGE-Climat model) is used to illustrate and analyse the potential impacts of climate change on tree species distribution and productivity over Europe. Changes in hydrological budget (e. g., runoff) and fire effects on forests will also be shown. Transient runs (1975-2100) with a new dynamic module introduced in CARAIB are performed to follow the future evolutions. In the new module, the processes of species establishment, competition and mortality due to stresses and disturbances have been improved. Among others, increased atmospheric CO2 and warmer climate increase tree productivity while drier conditions decrease it. Regions with more severe droughts will also be affected by an increase of wildfire frequency, which may have large impacts on vegetation density and distribution.

Vertebrate records in polar sediments: Biological responses to past climate change and human activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, L. G.; Emslie, S. D.; Huang, T.; Blais, J. M.; Xie, Z. Q.; Liu, X. D.; Yin, X. B.; Wang, Y. H.; Huang, W.; Hodgson, D. A.; Smol, J. P.

2013-11-01

Biological responses to climate and environmental changes in remote polar regions are of increasing interest in global change research. Terrestrial and marine polar ecosystems have suffered from impacts of both rapid climate change and intense human activities, and large fluctuations in the population sizes of seabirds, seals, and Antarctic krill have been observed in the past decades. To understand the mechanisms driving these regime shifts in polar ecosystems, it is important to first distinguish the influences of natural forcing from anthropogenic activities. Therefore, investigations of past changes of polar ecosystems prior to human contact are relevant for placing recent human-induced changes within a long-term historical context. Here we focus our review on the fossil, sub-fossil, archaeological, and biogeochemical remains of marine vertebrates in polar sediments. These remains include well-preserved tissues such as bones, hairs and feathers, and biogeochemical markers and other proxy indicators, including deposits of guano and excrement, which can accumulate in lake and terrestrial sediments over thousands of years. Analyses of these remains have provided insight into both natural and anthropogenic impacts on marine vertebrates over millennia and have helped identify the causal agents for these impacts. Furthermore, land-based seabirds and marine mammals have been shown to play an important role as bio-vectors in polar environments as they transport significant amounts of nutrients and anthropogenic contaminants between ocean and terrestrial ecosystems.

Diverging seasonal extremes for ocean acidification during the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, Lester; Orr, James C.

2018-01-01

How ocean acidification will affect marine organisms depends on changes in both the long-term mean and the short-term temporal variability of carbonate chemistry1-8. Although the decadal-to-centennial response to atmospheric CO2 and climate change is constrained by observations and models1, 9, little is known about corresponding changes in seasonality10-12, particularly for pH. Here we assess the latter by analysing nine earth system models (ESMs) forced with a business-as-usual emissions scenario13. During the twenty-first century, the seasonal cycle of surface-ocean pH was attenuated by 16 ± 7%, on average, whereas that for hydrogen ion concentration [H+] was amplified by 81 ± 16%. Simultaneously, the seasonal amplitude of the aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) was attenuated except in the subtropics, where it was amplified. These contrasting changes derive from regionally varying sensitivities of these variables to atmospheric CO2 and climate change and to diverging trends in seasonal extremes in the primary controlling variables (temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity). Projected seasonality changes will tend to exacerbate the impacts of increasing [H+] on marine organisms during the summer and ameliorate the impacts during the winter, although the opposite holds in the high latitudes. Similarly, over most of the ocean, impacts from declining Ωarag are likely to be intensified during the summer and dampened during the winter.

Explaining Behavior Change after Genetic Testing: The Problem of Collinearity between Test Results and Risk Estimates

PubMed Central

Fanshawe, Thomas R.; Prevost, A. Toby; Roberts, J. Scott; Green, Robert C.; Armstrong, David; Marteau, Theresa M.

2010-01-01

This paper explores whether and how the behavioral impact of genotype disclosure can be disentangled from the impact of numerical risk estimates generated by genetic tests. Secondary data analyses are presented from a randomized controlled trial of 162 first-degree relatives of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) patients. Each participant received a lifetime risk estimate of AD. Control group estimates were based on age, gender, family history, and assumed ε4-negative apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype; intervention group estimates were based upon the first three variables plus true APOE genotype, which was also disclosed. AD-specific self-reported behavior change (diet, exercise, and medication use) was assessed at 12 months. Behavior change was significantly more likely with increasing risk estimates, and also more likely, but not significantly so, in ε4-positive intervention group participants (53% changed behavior) than in control group participants (31%). Intervention group participants receiving ε4-negative genotype feedback (24% changed behavior) and control group participants had similar rates of behavior change and risk estimates, the latter allowing assessment of the independent effects of genotype disclosure. However, collinearity between risk estimates and ε4-positive genotypes, which engender high-risk estimates, prevented assessment of the independent effect of the disclosure of an ε4 genotype. Novel study designs are proposed to determine whether genotype disclosure has an impact upon behavior beyond that of numerical risk estimates. PMID:18666860

Explaining behavior change after genetic testing: the problem of collinearity between test results and risk estimates.

PubMed

Fanshawe, Thomas R; Prevost, A Toby; Roberts, J Scott; Green, Robert C; Armstrong, David; Marteau, Theresa M

2008-09-01

This paper explores whether and how the behavioral impact of genotype disclosure can be disentangled from the impact of numerical risk estimates generated by genetic tests. Secondary data analyses are presented from a randomized controlled trial of 162 first-degree relatives of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. Each participant received a lifetime risk estimate of AD. Control group estimates were based on age, gender, family history, and assumed epsilon4-negative apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype; intervention group estimates were based upon the first three variables plus true APOE genotype, which was also disclosed. AD-specific self-reported behavior change (diet, exercise, and medication use) was assessed at 12 months. Behavior change was significantly more likely with increasing risk estimates, and also more likely, but not significantly so, in epsilon4-positive intervention group participants (53% changed behavior) than in control group participants (31%). Intervention group participants receiving epsilon4-negative genotype feedback (24% changed behavior) and control group participants had similar rates of behavior change and risk estimates, the latter allowing assessment of the independent effects of genotype disclosure. However, collinearity between risk estimates and epsilon4-positive genotypes, which engender high-risk estimates, prevented assessment of the independent effect of the disclosure of an epsilon4 genotype. Novel study designs are proposed to determine whether genotype disclosure has an impact upon behavior beyond that of numerical risk estimates.

Construct Validity of the Autism Impact Measure (AIM).

PubMed

Mazurek, Micah O; Carlson, Coleen; Baker-Ericzén, Mary; Butter, Eric; Norris, Megan; Kanne, Stephen

2018-01-17

The Autism Impact Measure (AIM) was designed to track incremental change in frequency and impact of core ASD symptoms. The current study examined the structural and convergent validity of the AIM in a large sample of children with ASD. The results of a series of exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses yielded a final model with five theoretically and empirically meaningful subdomains: Repetitive Behavior, Atypical Behavior, Communication, Social Reciprocity, and Peer Interaction. The final model showed very good fit both overall and for each of the five factors, indicating excellent structural validity. AIM subdomain scores were significantly correlated with measures of similar constructs across all five domains. The results provide further support for the psychometric properties of the AIM.

Considering population and war: a critical and neglected aspect of conflict studies

PubMed Central

Thayer, Bradley A.

2009-01-01

This study analyses the relationship between war and population. The impact of the growth and decline of population on important types of warfare—great power, small power, civil war as well as terrorism—is illustrated, with the objective in each case to be descriptive of risk. I find that population change has a significant impact on each, with the greatest causal impact on small power conflicts, civil war and upon terrorism. I conclude with some reasons for guarded optimism about the incorporation of population as a component of analysis in the discipline of international studies, and for the potential to devise new solutions to prevent conflict. PMID:19770157

Economic impact of 21-gene recurrence score testing on early-stage breast cancer in Ireland.

PubMed

Smyth, Lillian; Watson, Geoff; Walsh, Elaine M; Kelly, Catherine M; Keane, Maccon; Kennedy, M John; Grogan, Liam; Hennessy, Bryan T; O'Reilly, Seamus; Coate, Linda E; O'Connor, Miriam; Quinn, Cecily; Verleger, Katharina; Schoeman, Olaf; O'Reilly, Susan; Walshe, Janice M

2015-10-01

The 21-gene test is a validated multi-gene diagnostic test that predicts chemotherapy (CT) benefit in oestrogen receptor positive (ER+), lymph node-negative (N0) breast cancer (BC) patients (pts). Ireland was the first public health care system to reimburse this test in Europe. Study objectives were to assess the impact of this test on decision-making and to analyse the economic impact of testing. Between October 2011 and February 2013, a national, retrospective, cross-sectional observational study of ER+, N0 BC pts tested with the 21-gene test was conducted. Surveyed breast medical oncologists, provided the assumption for the decision impact analysis that grade (G) 1 pts would not have received CT before testing and G2/3 pts would have received CT before testing. Descriptive statistical analyses were performed. 592 pts were identified; Low, intermediate and high recurrence score were identified in 53, 36 and 10 % pts, respectively. 384 (70 %) pts had G2, 129 (22 %) G3 and 76 (13 %) G1 tumours. Post testing, 345 pts (59 %) experienced a change in CT decision; 339 changed to hormone therapy alone and 6 advised to receive CT. 172 (30 %) pts received CT, 12 (3.9 %) of pts with low scores, 108 (50.9 %) of intermediate risk and 50 (90.9 %) of pts with high risk scores. Net reduction in CT use was 58 % and net savings achieved were €793,565. Since public reimbursement, the introduction of the 21-gene test has resulted in a significant reduction in chemotherapy administration and cost savings for the Irish public healthcare system.

A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf.

PubMed

Hare, Jonathan A; Morrison, Wendy E; Nelson, Mark W; Stachura, Megan M; Teeters, Eric J; Griffis, Roger B; Alexander, Michael A; Scott, James D; Alade, Larry; Bell, Richard J; Chute, Antonie S; Curti, Kiersten L; Curtis, Tobey H; Kircheis, Daniel; Kocik, John F; Lucey, Sean M; McCandless, Camilla T; Milke, Lisa M; Richardson, David E; Robillard, Eric; Walsh, Harvey J; McManus, M Conor; Marancik, Katrin E; Griswold, Carolyn A

2016-01-01

Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability.

A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf

PubMed Central

Hare, Jonathan A.; Morrison, Wendy E.; Nelson, Mark W.; Stachura, Megan M.; Teeters, Eric J.; Griffis, Roger B.; Alexander, Michael A.; Scott, James D.; Alade, Larry; Bell, Richard J.; Chute, Antonie S.; Curti, Kiersten L.; Curtis, Tobey H.; Kircheis, Daniel; Kocik, John F.; Lucey, Sean M.; McCandless, Camilla T.; Milke, Lisa M.; Richardson, David E.; Robillard, Eric; Walsh, Harvey J.; McManus, M. Conor; Marancik, Katrin E.; Griswold, Carolyn A.

2016-01-01

Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability. PMID:26839967

Changing Beliefs about Trauma: A Qualitative Study of Cognitive Processing Therapy.

PubMed

Price, Jennifer L; MacDonald, Helen Z; Adair, Kathryn C; Koerner, Naomi; Monson, Candice M

2016-03-01

Controlled qualitative methods complement quantitative treatment outcome research and enable a more thorough understanding of the effects of therapy and the suspected mechanisms of action. Thematic analyses were used to examine outcomes of cognitive processing therapy (CPT) for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in a randomized controlled trial of individuals diagnosed with military-related PTSD (n = 15). After sessions 1 and 11, participants wrote "impact statements" describing their appraisals of their trauma and beliefs potentially impacted by traumatic events. Trained raters coded each of these statements using a thematic coding scheme. An analysis of thematic coding revealed positive changes over the course of therapy in participants' perspective on their trauma and their future, supporting the purported mechanisms of CPT. Implications of this research for theory and clinical practice are discussed.

Impact of highway construction on water bodies: a geospatial assessment.

PubMed

Vijay, Ritesh; Kushwaha, Vikash K; Mardikar, Trupti; Labhasetwar, P K

2017-08-01

India has witnessed a massive infrastructure boom in the past few years. One of such projects is National Highway-7 (NH-7), a North-South highway connecting Kanyakumari, Tamil Nadu, to Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, traversing many water bodies. The present study aims to assess the pre- and post-construction impact due to existing, new and widened NH-7 on the physical status of the water bodies, using remote sensing techniques. Satellite images spanning 22 years were procured and analysed for change detection in land use and land cover within the waterbodies. The study indicates that construction activities have led to transformation within the water bodies regarding reduction in area and inter-changing of land use and land cover classes, in turn leading to siltation and reduction of recharge.

Consideration of climate change impacts and adaptation in EIA practice — Perspectives of actors in Austria and Germany

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiricka, Alexandra, E-mail: alexandra.jiricka@boku.ac.at; Department of Landscape, Spatial and Infrastructure Sciences, Institute for Landscape Development, Recreation and Conservation Planning, Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, 1190 Vienna; Formayer, Herbert

Current political discussions and developments indicate the importance and urgency of incorporating climate change considerations into EIA processes. The recent revision of the EU Directive 2014/52/EU on Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) requires changes in the EIA practice of the EU member states. This paper investigates the extent to which the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) can contribute to an early consideration of climate change consequences in planning processes. In particular the roles of different actors in order to incorporate climate change impacts and adaptation into project planning subject to EIA at the appropriate levels are a core topic. Semi-structured expert interviewsmore » were carried out with representatives of the main infrastructure companies and institutions responsible in these sectors in Austria, which have to carry out EIA regularly. In a second step expert interviews were conducted with EIA assessors and EIA authorities in Austria and Germany, in order to examine the extent to which climate-based changes are already considered in EIA processes. This paper aims to discuss the different perspectives in the current EIA practice with regard to integrating climate change impacts as well as barriers and solutions identified by the groups of actors involved, namely project developers, environmental competent authorities and consultants (EIA assessors/practitioners). The interviews show that different groups of actors consider the topic to different degrees. Downscaling of climate change scenarios is in this context both, a critical issue with regards to availability of data and costs. Furthermore, assistance for the interpretation of relevant impacts, to be deducted from climate change scenarios, on the specific environmental issues in the area is needed. The main barriers identified by the EIA experts therefore include a lack of data as well as general uncertainty as to how far climate change should be considered in the process without reliable data but in the presence of knowledge about possible consequences at an abstract level. A joint strategy on how to cope with uncertain prognoses about main impacts on environmental issues for areas without reliable data requires a discussion and cooperation between EIA consultants and environmental authorities. - Highlights: • The consideration of climate change impacts in EIA practice in Austria and Germany was analysed through expert interviews. • Barriers as well as possible solutions were indentified by the different groups of actors involved in EIA. • The main challenges regard the investigation of specific entry points. • Limits of feasibility need to be discussed amongst the different groups of actors.« less

Reconstructing Holocene palaeo-environmental conditions in the Baltic: A multi-proxy comparison from the Little Belt (IODP Expedition 347, Site M0059)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotthoff, Ulrich; Andrén, Elinor; Andrén, Thomas; Ash, Jeanine; Bauersachs, Thorsten; Fanget, Anne-Sophie; Granoszewski, Wojciech; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Krupinski, Nadine; Peyron, Odile; Slomp, Caroline; Stepanova, Anna; Warnock, Jonathan; van Helmond, Niels; Expedition 347 Science Party

2016-04-01

Some of the largest marine environmental impacts from ongoing global climate change are occurring in continental shelf seas and enclosed basins, including severe oxygen depletion, intensifying stratification, and increasing temperatures. In order to predict future changes in water mass conditions, it is essential to reconstruct how these conditions have changed in the past against the background of climate changes. The brackish Baltic Sea is one of the largest semi-enclosed basins worldwide, and its sediment records provide a unique opportunity to analyse palaeo-environmental and climate change in central and northern Europe. IODP Expedition 347 recovered an exceptional set of sediment cores from the Baltic Sea which allow high-resolution reconstructions in unprecedented quality. We present a comparison of commonly-used proxies to reconstruct palaeoecosystems, -temperatures, and -salinity from IODP Site M0059 in the Little Belt over the past ˜8000 years. Our aim is to reconstruct the development of the terrestrial and marine ecosystems in the research area and the related environmental conditions, and to identify potential limitations of individual proxies. The age model for Site M0059 is based on 14Cdating, biostratigraphic correlation with neighbouring terrestrial pollen records, and sediment stratigraphy. Sedimentary organic carbon content and the bulk elemental composition have been measured, and can be used to determine the depositional environment and degree of oxygen depletion (e.g., Mo, Corg/Ptot). Pollen is used as proxy for vegetation development in the hinterland of the southern Baltic Sea and as a land/air-temperature proxy. Comparison with dinoflagellate cysts, insect remains, and green algae remains from the same samples provides a direct land-sea comparison. The application of the modern analogues technique to pollen assemblages has previously yielded precise results for late Pleistocene and Holocene datasets, including specific information on seasonality, but pollen-based reconstructions for Northern Europe may be hampered by plant migration effects. Palynomorph analyses are therefore complemented with analyses of lipid palaeothermometers, such as TEX86 and the long chain diol index (LDI), to reconstruct variations in Baltic Sea surface temperatures (SST). In addition, the MBT/CBT proxy is used to infer past changes in mean annual air temperatures (MAAT). Benthic foraminiferal δ18O and δ13C measurements (monospecific) and foraminifera and ostracod faunal assemblage analyses allow us to estimate bottom water salinity and environmental changes qualitatively and quantitatively. Low bottom water salinity (˜23 in bottom waters) and varying diagenesis in the Little Belt's organic-rich sediments complicates the application of benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca as a palaeotemperature proxy. Reliable bottom water temperatures, however, are reconstructed using clumped isotope analyses of mollusc material. In addition, diatoms and the diol index (DI) are analysed to determine variation in salinity of the Baltic Sea's surface waters over the investigated time period. The results of this inter-proxy comparison study will be used to reconstruct gradients between different settings, e.g. how water column stratification developed, possibly if and how changes in seasonality occurred, and to identify the circumstances under which specific proxies may be affected by secondary impacts.

Aquatic chemistry of flood events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klavins, Maris; Rodinov, Valery

2015-04-01

During flood events a major discharge of water and dissolved substances happens. However flood waters very much differs from water composition during low-water events. Aquatic chemistry of flood waters also is of importance at the calculation of loadings as well as they might have major impact on water quality in receiving water bodies (lakes, coastal waters and seas). Further flood regime of rivers is subjected to changes due to climate change and growing impact of human activities. The aim of this study is to analyse water chemical composition changes during flood events in respect to low water periods, character of high-water events and characteristics of the corresponding basin. Within this study, the concentrations of major dissolved substances in the major rivers of Latvia have been studied using monitoring data as well as field studies during high water/ low water events. As territories of studies flows of substances in river basins/subbasins with different land-use character and different anthropogenic impacts has been studied to calculate export values depending on the land-use character. Impact of relations between dissolved substances and relations in respect to budgets has been calculated. The dynamics of DOC, nutrient and major dissolved substance flows depending on landuse pattern and soil properties in Latvia has been described, including emissions by industrial and agricultural production. In these changes evidently climate change signals can be identified. The water chemistry of a large number of rivers during flood events has been determined and the possible impact of water chemical composition on DOC and nutrient flows has been evaluated. Long-term changes (1977-2013) of concentrations of dissolved substances do not follow linear trends but rather show oscillating patterns, indicating impact of natural factors, e.g. changing hydrological and climatic conditions. There is a positive correlation between content of inert dissolved substances and water discharge. This study did not reveal a clear correlation between the concentrations of dissolved substances and land-use types within the river basin. Conclusions in respect to calculation needed for loading calculations has been done. Acknowledgement: support from a Latvia Science Council grant "Stability of climate system and its impacts on water quality limiting biogeochemical flows in Latvia"

Louisiana Barrier Island Comprehensive Monitoring (BICM) Program Summary Report: Data and Analyses 2006 through 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kindinger, Jack G.; Buster, Noreen A.; Flocks, James G.; Bernier, Julie C.; Kulp, Mark A.

2013-01-01

The Barrier Island Comprehensive Monitoring (BICM) program was implemented under the Louisiana Coastal Area Science and Technology (LCA S&T) office as a component of the System Wide Assessment and Monitoring (SWAMP) program. The BICM project was developed by the State of Louisiana (Coastal Protection Restoration Authority [CPRA], formerly Department of Natural Resources [DNR]) to complement other Louisiana coastal monitoring programs such as the Coastwide Reference Monitoring System-Wetlands (CRMS-Wetlands) and was a collaborative research effort by CPRA, University of New Orleans (UNO), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The goal of the BICM program was to provide long-term data on the barrier islands of Louisiana that could be used to plan, design, evaluate, and maintain current and future barrier-island restoration projects. The BICM program used both historical and newly acquired (2006 to 2010) data to assess and monitor changes in the aerial and subaqueous extent of islands, habitat types, sediment texture and geotechnical properties, environmental processes, and vegetation composition. BICM datasets included aerial still and video photography (multiple time series) for shoreline positions, habitat mapping, and land loss; light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys for topographic elevations; single-beam and swath bathymetry; and sediment grab samples. Products produced using BICM data and analyses included (but were not limited to) storm-impact assessments, rate of shoreline and bathymetric change, shoreline-erosion and accretion maps, high-resolution elevation maps, coastal-shoreline and barrier-island habitat-classification maps, and coastal surficial-sediment characterization maps. Discussions in this report summarize the extensive data-collection efforts and present brief interpretive analyses for four coastal Louisiana geographic regions. In addition, several coastal-wide and topical themes were selected that integrate the data and analyses within a broader coastal context: (1) barrier-shoreline evolution driven by rapid relative sea-level rise (RSLR), (2) hurricane impacts to the Chandeleur Islands and likelihood of island recovery, (3) impact of tropical storms on barrier shorelines, (4) Barataria Bay tidal-inlet management, and (5) habitat changes related to RSLR. The final theme addresses potential future goals of the BICM program, including rotational annual to semi-decadal monitoring, proposed new-data collection, how to incorporate technological advances with previous data-collection and monitoring protocols, and standardizing methods and quality-control assessments for continued coastal monitoring and restoration.

Examining Adaptations to Water Stress Among Farming Households in Sri Lanka's Dry Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, N. E.; Carrico, A.

2016-12-01

Climate change is increasing water scarcity in Sri Lanka's primary rice-farming zone. Whether these changes will undermine the national-level food security that Sri Lanka has worked to develop since their independence depends upon the ability of the small-scale farmers that dominate rice production and the institutions that support them to overcome the challenges presented by changing water availability. Using household survey data collected in 13 rice farming communities throughout Sri Lanka, this research explores how water stressed farmers are working to adapt to changing conditions and how the strategies they employ impact rice yields. Our analyses reveal that farmers' abilities to access irrigation infrastructure is the most important factor shaping the rice yields of water stressed Sri Lanka farmers. Notably, however, our research also identified farmers' use of hybrid, 'short duration' seed varietals to be the only climate adaptation strategy being promoted by agricultural extension services to have a significant positive impact on farmers' yields. These findings provide encouraging evidence for policies that promote plant breeding and distribution in Sri Lanka as a means to buffer the food system to climate change.

The Social Construction of Time in Contemporary Education: Implications for Technology, Equality and Bernstein's "Conditions for Democracy"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leaton Gray, Sandra

2017-01-01

This article discusses how the introduction of technology has led to a fundamental shift in the relationship between education and time. As a means of analysing the extent of such changes on pupils from different backgrounds, I use Bernstein's "conditions for democracy" as a framework for evaluating the impact new understandings of time…

Comparative genetic responses to climate in the varieties of Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii: reforestation

Treesearch

Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Barry C. Jaquish; Cuauhtemoc Saenz-Romero; Dennis G. Joyce; Laura P. Leites; J. Bradley St Clair; Javier Lopez-Upton

2014-01-01

Impacts of climate change on the climatic niche of the sub-specific varieties of Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii and on the adaptedness of their populations are considered from the viewpoint of reforestation. In using climate projections from an ensemble of 17 general circulation models targeting the decade surrounding 2060, our analyses suggest that a...

Cumulative Impacts Of Landuse On Water Quality In A Southern Appalachian Watershed

Treesearch

Paul V. Bolstad; Wayne T. Swank

1997-01-01

Environmental planning and regulatory mandates require assessment of water quality changes associat-ed with distributed landuse activities (in this study, as in much of the literature, landuse and landcover will be used interchangeably, and refer to general classes of landcover associated with specific land-uses). Such environmental analyses can be approached from a “...

Market Competition in Upper Secondary Education: Perceived Effects on Teachers' Work

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lundstrom, Ulf; Holm, Ann-Sofie

2011-01-01

The development and expansion of market solutions is one of the most important changes in Swedish education in the last 30 years. The aim of the article is to describe and analyse how students and staff in upper secondary schools perceive the impact of market competition on teachers' work. Three groups of actors in two Swedish regions were…

Second Chance Education Matters! Income Trajectories of Poorly Educated Non-Nordics in Sweden

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nordlund, Madelene; Bonfanti, Sara; Strandh, Mattias

2015-01-01

In this study we examine the long-term impact of second chance education (SCE) on incomes of poorly educated individuals who live in Sweden but were not born in a Nordic country, using data on income changes from 1992 to 2003 compiled by Statistics Sweden. Ordinary Least Squares regression analyses show that participation in SCE increased the work…

Beginning Teachers' Pupil Control Ideologies: An Empirical Examination of the Impact of Beliefs about Education, Mentorship, Induction, and Principal Leadership Style

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rideout, Glenn; Windle, Sheila

2010-01-01

This empirical study examined changes in beginning teachers' pupil control ideologies (PCI). Quantitative analyses were conducted with regard to shifts in PCI that may be associated with internal beliefs about education and with external factors such as mentorship, induction programs, and school leadership style. Follow-up interviews facilitated a…

Public Health-Related Impacts of Climate Change inCalifornia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Drechsler, D.M.; Motallebi, N.; Kleeman, M.

2005-12-01

In June 2005 Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger issued Executive Order S-3-05 that set greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for California, and directed the Secretary of the California Environmental Protection Agency to report to the governor and the State legislature by January 2006 and biannually thereafter on the impacts to California of global warming, including impacts to water supply, public health, agriculture, the coastline, and forestry, and to prepare and report on mitigation and adaptation plans to combat these impacts. This report is a part of the report to the governor and legislature, and focuses on public health impacts that have beenmore » associated with climate change. Considerable evidence suggests that average ambient temperature is increasing worldwide, that temperatures will continue to increase into the future, and that global warming will result in changes to many aspects of climate, including temperature, humidity, and precipitation (McMichael and Githeko, 2001). It is expected that California will experience changes in both temperature and precipitation under current trends. Many of the changes in climate projected for California could have ramifications for public health (McMichael and Githeko, 2001), and this document summarizes the impacts judged most likely to occur in California, based on a review of available peer-reviewed scientific literature and new modeling and statistical analyses. The impacts identified as most significant to public health in California include mortality and morbidity related to temperature, air pollution, vector and water-borne diseases, and wildfires. There is considerable complexity underlying the health of a population with many contributing factors including biological, ecological, social, political, and geographical. In addition, the relationship between climate change and changes in public health is difficult to predict for the most part, although more detailed information is available on temperature-related mortality and air pollution effects than the other endpoints discussed in this document. Consequently, these two topics are discussed in greater detail. Where possible, estimates of the magnitude and significance of these impacts are also discussed, along with possible adaptations that could reduce climate-related health impacts. In the context of this review, weather refers to meteorological conditions at a specific place and time over a relatively short time frame, such as up to a year or two. Climate, on the other hand, refers to the same meteorological conditions, but over a longer time frame, such as decades or centuries.« less

Assessment the impact of samplers change on the uncertainty related to geothermalwater sampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wątor, Katarzyna; Mika, Anna; Sekuła, Klaudia; Kmiecik, Ewa

2018-02-01

The aim of this study is to assess the impact of samplers change on the uncertainty associated with the process of the geothermal water sampling. The study was carried out on geothermal water exploited in Podhale region, southern Poland (Małopolska province). To estimate the uncertainty associated with sampling the results of determinations of metasilicic acid (H2SiO3) in normal and duplicate samples collected in two series were used (in each series the samples were collected by qualified sampler). Chemical analyses were performed using ICP-OES method in the certified Hydrogeochemical Laboratory of the Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology Department at the AGH University of Science and Technology in Krakow (Certificate of Polish Centre for Accreditation No. AB 1050). To evaluate the uncertainty arising from sampling the empirical approach was implemented, based on double analysis of normal and duplicate samples taken from the same well in the series of testing. The analyses of the results were done using ROBAN software based on technique of robust statistics analysis of variance (rANOVA). Conducted research proved that in the case of qualified and experienced samplers uncertainty connected with the sampling can be reduced what results in small measurement uncertainty.

Men's experiences of sexuality after cancer: a material discursive intra-psychic approach.

PubMed

Gilbert, Emilee; Ussher, Jane M; Perz, Janette; Wong, W K Tim; Hobbs, Kim; Mason, Catherine

2013-01-01

Men can experience significant changes to their sexuality following the onset of cancer. However, research on men's sexuality post-cancer has focused almost exclusively on those with prostate and testicular cancer, despite evidence that the diagnosis and treatment for most cancers can impact on men's sexuality. This Australian qualitative study explores the experiences of changes to sexuality for 21 men across a range of cancer types and stages, sexual orientations and relationship contexts. Semi-structured interviews were analysed with theoretical thematic analysis guided by a material discursive intra-psychic approach, recognising the materiality of sexual changes, men's intrapsychic experience of such changes within a relational context and the influence of the discursive construction of masculine sexuality. Material changes included erectile difficulty, decreased desire, and difficulty with orgasm. The use of medical aids to minimise the impact of erectile difficulties was shaped by discursive constructions of 'normal' masculine sexuality. The majority of men reported accepting the changes to their sexuality post-cancer and normalised them as part of the natural ageing process. Men's relationship status and context played a key role managing the changes to their sexuality. We conclude by discussing the implications for clinical practice.

The impact of policy changes on consumer behaviour and alcohol consumption in Scania, Sweden 1999-2005.

PubMed

Stafström, Martin; Ostergren, Per-Ölof

2014-01-01

To analyse the hypothesis that a gradual deregulation of traveller allowances, starting in 2001 and ending in 2004, on alcoholic beverages changed consumer behaviours that ultimately led to an increase in alcohol consumption in southern Sweden between in 2005 compared with 1999. The data for this general population random sample prospective cohort study with repeated measurements were collected in 1999 (T1) and in 2005 (T2) in the county of Scania, analysing the answers from 8612 individuals, who at T1 were alcohol consumers and 18-80 years old. Aggregate age-adjusted general mean alcohol consumption did not change significantly between T1 and T2. Significant downward changes were found in a number of demographical and socioeconomic sub-groups. Generalized linear model analyses indicated that the uptake of buying alcohol from a private person was associated with significantly higher consumption (P < 0.001). No longer buying alcohol from a private person, consuming illicitly distilled spirits or buying alcohol abroad were significantly associated with lower consumption at follow-up. Interaction effects between changing consumer behaviours were also identified. The deregulation of the cross-border trade of alcohol into Sweden did not, within our sample, lead to an increase in consumption. There were, however, significant decreases in consumption levels within different socio-demographic sub-groups. In relation to changing consumer behaviours both upward and downward shifts in drinking trends were observed. © The Author 2014. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

A study on the effect of chemically synthesized magnetite nanoparticles on earthworm: Eudrilus eugeniae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samrot, Antony V.; Justin, C.; Padmanaban, S.; Burman, Ujjala

2017-02-01

Most look into the benefits of the nanoparticles, but keeping aside the benefits; this study focuses on the impacts of nanoparticles on living systems. Improper disposal of nanoparticles into the environment is a subject of pollution or nano-pollution which in turn affects the flora and fauna in the ecosystem, particularly soil ecosystem. Thus, this study was done to understand the impacts of chemically synthesized magnetite nanoparticles on earthworm— Eudrilus eugeniae, a soil-dependent organism which acquires food and nutrition from decaying matters. The chemically synthesized magnetite nanoparticles were characterized by UV-visible spectrophotometry, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and field emission scanning electron microscopy. Earthworms were allowed to interact with different concentrations of synthesized nanoparticles and the effect of the nanoparticles was analysed by studying the phenotypic changes followed by histology and inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry analyses.

Regional Analysis of Energy, Water, Land and Climate Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tidwell, V. C.; Averyt, K.; Harriss, R. C.; Hibbard, K. A.; Newmark, R. L.; Rose, S. K.; Shevliakova, E.; Wilson, T.

2014-12-01

Energy, water, and land systems interact in many ways and are impacted by management and climate change. These systems and their interactions often differ in significant ways from region-to-region. To explore the coupled energy-water-land system and its relation to climate change and management a simple conceptual model of demand, endowment and technology (DET) is proposed. A consistent and comparable analysis framework is needed as climate change and resource management practices have the potential to impact each DET element, resource, and region differently. These linkages are further complicated by policy and trade agreements where endowments of one region are used to meet demands in another. This paper reviews the unique DET characteristics of land, energy and water resources across the United States. Analyses are conducted according to the eight geographic regions defined in the 2014 National Climate Assessment. Evident from the analyses are regional differences in resources endowments in land (strong East-West gradient in forest, cropland and desert), water (similar East-West gradient), and energy. Demands likewise vary regionally reflecting differences in population density and endowment (e.g., higher water use in West reflecting insufficient precipitation to support dryland farming). The effect of technology and policy are particularly evident in differences in the energy portfolios across the eight regions. Integrated analyses that account for the various spatial and temporal differences in regional energy, water and land systems are critical to informing effective policy requirements for future energy, climate and resource management. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Soybean Trade: Balancing Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts of an Intercontinental Market

PubMed Central

Boerema, Annelies; Peeters, Alain; Swolfs, Sanne; Vandevenne, Floor; Jacobs, Sander; Staes, Jan; Meire, Patrick

2016-01-01

The trade in soybean, an important animal feed product, exemplifies the environmental and socio-economic impact of global markets and global agricultural policy. This paper analyses the impact of increasing production of soybean in the exporting countries (deforestation and grassland conversion) as well as in importing regions (decrease in permanent grassland by substitution of grass as feed). Ecosystem services monetary values were used to calculate the environmental and socio-economic impact of observed land use changes. This is balanced against the economic value of the global soybean trade. The results prove that consumption choices in one region have real effects on the supply of ecosystem services at a large spatial scale. Conclusively, solutions to make this global market more sustainable are discussed. PMID:27244079

Effects of climate change on plant population growth rate and community composition change.

PubMed

Chang, Xiao-Yu; Chen, Bao-Ming; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiao-Rong; Peng, Shao-Lin

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots-Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)-that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change.

Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review.

PubMed

Winter, Maiken; Fiedler, Wolfgang; Hochachka, Wesley M; Koehncke, Arnulf; Meiri, Shai; De la Riva, Ignacio

2016-09-01

Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species-study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians.

Science Overview: The LTTG Technology Review Meeting March 2006 Summary Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bruning, Claus; Ko, Malcolm; Lee, David; Miake-Lye, Richard

2006-01-01

This report presents an overview of the latest scientific consensus understanding of the effect of aviation emissions on the atmosphere for both local air quality and climate change in order to provide a contextual framework for raising future questions to help assess the environmental benefits of technology goals. Although studies of the two issues share a common framework (of quantifying the emissions, the change in concentrations in the atmosphere, and the environmental impacts), the communities of practitioners are distinctly different. The scientific community will continue to provide guidelines on trade-off among different contributors to a specific environmental impact, such as global climate, or local air quality. Ultimately, monetization of the costs and benefits of mitigation actions is the proper tool for quantifying and analyzing trade-offs between the two issues. Scientific assessment of the impacts and their uncertainties are critical inputs to these analyses. Until environmental effects of aviation emerge as a policy driven issue, there is little incentive within the scientific community to focus on research efforts specific to trade-off studies between local and global impacts.

Assessment of Human Health Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change in Cuba

PubMed Central

Bultó, Paulo Lázaro Ortíz; Rodríguez, Antonio Pérez; Valencia, Alina Rivero; Vega, Nicolás León; Gonzalez, Manuel Díaz; Carrera, Alina Pérez

2006-01-01

In this study we assessed the potential effects of climate variability and change on population health in Cuba. We describe the climate of Cuba as well as the patterns of climate-sensitive diseases of primary concern, particularly dengue fever. Analyses of the associations between climatic anomalies and disease patterns highlight current vulnerability to climate variability. We describe current adaptations, including the application of climate predictions to prevent disease outbreaks. Finally, we present the potential economic costs associated with future impacts due to climate change. The tools used in this study can be useful in the development of appropriate and effective adaptation options to address the increased climate variability associated with climate change. PMID:17185289

Predictors of weight loss success. Exercise vs. dietary self-efficacy and treatment attendance.

PubMed

Byrne, Shannon; Barry, Danielle; Petry, Nancy M

2012-04-01

Pre-treatment diet and exercise self-efficacies can predict weight loss success. Changes in diet self-efficacy across treatment appear to be even stronger predictors than baseline levels, but research on changes in exercise self-efficacy is lacking. Using data from a pilot study evaluating tangible reinforcement for weight loss (N=30), we examined the impact of changes in diet and exercise self-efficacy on outcomes. Multiple regression analyses indicated that treatment attendance and changes in exercise self-efficacy during treatment were the strongest predictors of weight loss. Developing weight loss programs that foster the development of exercise self-efficacy may enhance participants' success. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Understanding how transport choices are affected by the environment and health: views expressed in a study on the use of carbon calculators.

PubMed

Chatterton, T J; Coulter, A; Musselwhite, C; Lyons, G; Clegg, S

2009-01-01

To examine the influence that the provision of environmental information might be able to make on personal travel behaviour through analysis of the views of members of the public expressed in a study for the UK Department for Transport on attitudes towards carbon calculator tools. A three-stage qualitative survey taking an ideographic approach to analysing public attitudes to the use of carbon calculator tools in relation to making transport decisions. Interviews and discussion groups with stakeholders, non-users and users providing extensive data that were analysed using the British Market Research Bureau's matrix mapping methodology. Despite considerable awareness of climate change as an issue, personal carbon emissions were not found to have much influence on personal transport choice, which could be seen as being dominated by issues of cost (both in time and money), comfort and convenience. The spatial and temporal dislocation of the cause and effects of climate change make it difficult to link the impacts of personal travel behaviour with specific activities. If environmental- and health-based information is to be provided as a lever to change travel behaviour, it may be necessary to provide information on issues such as local air pollution and personal health impacts in order to link wider benefits with a travel user's self-interest.

Exploring the Impact of Food on the Gut Ecosystem Based on the Combination of Machine Learning and Network Visualization.

PubMed

Shima, Hideaki; Masuda, Shizuka; Date, Yasuhiro; Shino, Amiu; Tsuboi, Yuuri; Kajikawa, Mizuho; Inoue, Yoshihiro; Kanamoto, Taisei; Kikuchi, Jun

2017-12-01

Prebiotics and probiotics strongly impact the gut ecosystem by changing the composition and/or metabolism of the microbiota to improve the health of the host. However, the composition of the microbiota constantly changes due to the intake of daily diet. This shift in the microbiota composition has a considerable impact; however, non-pre/probiotic foods that have a low impact are ignored because of the lack of a highly sensitive evaluation method. We performed comprehensive acquisition of data using existing measurements (nuclear magnetic resonance, next-generation DNA sequencing, and inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectroscopy) and analyses based on a combination of machine learning and network visualization, which extracted important factors by the Random Forest approach, and applied these factors to a network module. We used two pteridophytes, Pteridium aquilinum and Matteuccia struthiopteris , for the representative daily diet. This novel analytical method could detect the impact of a small but significant shift associated with Matteuccia struthiopteris but not Pteridium aquilinum intake, using the functional network module. In this study, we proposed a novel method that is useful to explore a new valuable food to improve the health of the host as pre/probiotics.

Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storto, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Guinehut, Stéphanie; Xue, Yan; Szekely, Tanguy; Fukumori, Ichiro; Forget, Gael; Chang, You-Soon; Good, Simon A.; Köhl, Armin; Vernieres, Guillaume; Ferry, Nicolas; Peterson, K. Andrew; Behringer, David; Ishii, Masayoshi; Masuda, Shuhei; Fujii, Yosuke; Toyoda, Takahiro; Yin, Yonghong; Valdivieso, Maria; Barnier, Bernard; Boyer, Tim; Lee, Tony; Gourrion, Jérome; Wang, Ou; Heimback, Patrick; Rosati, Anthony; Kovach, Robin; Hernandez, Fabrice; Martin, Matthew J.; Kamachi, Masafumi; Kuragano, Tsurane; Mogensen, Kristian; Alves, Oscar; Haines, Keith; Wang, Xiaochun

2017-08-01

Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003-2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993-2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread.

Doubly blind: a systematic review of gender in randomised controlled trials.

PubMed

Phillips, Susan P; Hamberg, Katarina

2016-01-01

Although observational data show social characteristics such as gender or socio-economic status to be strong predictors of health, their impact is seldom investigated in randomised controlled studies (RCTs). Using a random sample of recent RCTs from high-impact journals, we examined how the most often recorded social characteristic, sex/gender, is considered in design, analysis, and interpretation. Of 712 RCTs published from September 2008 to 31 December 2013 in the Annals of Internal Medicine, British Medical Journal, Lancet, Canadian Medical Association Journal, or New England Journal of Medicine, we randomly selected 57 to analyse funding, methods, number of centres, documentation of social circumstances, inclusion/exclusion criteria, proportions of women/men, and reporting about sex/gender in analyses and discussion. Participants' sex was recorded in most studies (52/57). Thirty-nine percent included men and women approximately equally. Overrepresentation of men in 43% of studies without explicit exclusions for women suggested interference in selection processes. The minority of studies that did analyse sex/gender differences (22%) did not discuss or reflect upon these, or dismissed significant findings. Two studies reinforced traditional beliefs about women's roles, finding no impact of breastfeeding on infant health but nevertheless reporting possible benefits. Questionable methods such as changing protocols mid-study, having undefined exclusion criteria, allowing local researchers to remove participants from studies, and suggesting possible benefit where none was found were evident, particularly in industry-funded research. Social characteristics like sex/gender remain hidden from analyses and interpretation in RCTs, with loss of information and embedding of error all along the path from design to interpretation, and therefore, to uptake in clinical practice. Our results suggest that to broaden external validity, in particular, more refined trial designs and analyses that account for sex/gender and other social characteristics are needed.

Deep time ocean hypoxia: The impact on Jurassic marine ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caswell, B. A.; Frid, C. L. J.

2016-02-01

In order to understand how the environment will change over the next 100-1000 years and how this will impact the biosphere we need long-term data from a range of scenarios. This long-term perspective can be achieved by looking at periods of comparable environmental change in Earth history. Two past periods of ocean deoxygenation, 150 and 183 million years ago, are compared: (1) a period of global climate change, analogous to that occurring today, and (2) a period of regional hypoxia associated with changing circulation and nutrient supply. Palaeoecological changes in populations, communities, and seafloor functioning were investigated using data spanning millions of years at high resolution (100s-1000s years). Large shifts in biodiversity, body-size and the population-size of the dominant benthic taxa occurred in response to ocean anoxia. Ecological change spanned multiple trophic levels and suggest that changes in primary productivity impacted macrobenthos and their pelagic predators resulting in biogeographic range shifts. Quantitative analyses of changes in biological traits and core ecosystem functions show changes in nutrient regeneration, food web dynamics, and benthic-pelagic coupling. During ocean deoxygenation Jurassic ecosystems showed functional resilience and redundancy, but ultimately functioning collapsed. Quantification of the relationships between ecological change and various proxies for palaeoenvironmental change show that both hypoxia and primary productivity were important drivers. Environmental thresholds for local ecosystem change are identified. The patterns of Jurassic ecosystem change share many similarities with present-day hypoxic systems. Critically, the recovery from global anoxia was very slow and connectivity, with potential sources of new recruits, was an important contributor to ecosystem recovery. This emphasises the risks of relying on patterns of short-term and small-scale resilience when managing modern marine systems.

Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability

PubMed Central

Mora, Camilo; Caldwell, Iain R.; Caldwell, Jamie M.; Fisher, Micah R.; Genco, Brandon M.; Running, Steven W.

2015-01-01

Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under “business as usual” (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world’s terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world’s population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people. PMID:26061091

Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability.

PubMed

Mora, Camilo; Caldwell, Iain R; Caldwell, Jamie M; Fisher, Micah R; Genco, Brandon M; Running, Steven W

2015-06-01

Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under "business as usual" (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world's terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world's population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people.

Screening regional management options for their impact on climate resilience: an approach and case study in the Venen-Vechtstreek wetlands in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Wardekker, J A; Wildschut, D; Stemberger, S; van der Sluijs, J P

2016-01-01

Freshwater systems provide various resources and services. These are often vulnerable to climate change and other pressures. Therefore, enhancing resilience to climate change is important for their long term viability. This paper explores how management options can be evaluated on their resilience implications. The approach included five steps: (1) characterizing the system, (2) characterizing the impacts of climate change and other disturbances, (3) inventorying management options, (4) assessing the impacts of these on climate resilience, and (5) follow-up analysis. For the resilience assessment, we used a set of 'resilience principles': homeostasis, omnivory, high flux, flatness, buffering, and redundancy. We applied the approach in a case study in a Dutch wetlands region. Many options in the region's management plan contribute to resilience, however, the plan underutilised several principles, particularly flatness, but also redundancy and omnivory for agriculture, and high flux for nature. Co-benefits was identified as an important additional criterion to obtain support for adaptation from local stakeholders, such as farmers. The approach provided a relatively quick and participatory way to screen options. It allowed us to consider multiple impacts and sectors, multiple dimensions of resilience, and stakeholder perspectives. The results can be used to identify gaps or pitfalls, and set priorities for follow-up analyses.

Impact of radiation treatment on chemical, biochemical and sensory properties, and microbiological quality of mackerel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinter, Nino; Maltar-Strmečki, Nadica; Kozačinski, Lidija; Njari, Bela; Cvrtila Fleck, Željka

2015-12-01

The effect of gamma radiation on shelf-life of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) was studied. Changes in raw fish stored at 4 °C were investigated simultaneously, by performing sensory evaluation, chemical analysis (pH value and NH3 concentration), and biochemical analyses of histamine concentration and microbiological quality. Analyses showed that preservation by gamma irradiation prolonged the freshness and sustainability without any unintended sensory changes. Furthermore, increasing the dose during the 10 days of storage considerably reduced the concentration of histamine, but only slightly reduced the concentration of ammonia (NH3). Bacterial examinations showed that gamma radiation decreased the total number of bacteria. Our results indicated that the shelf-life of mackerel stored at 4 °C can be prolonged by irradiation with a dose of 3 kGy.

Sexuality education in a representative sample of Portuguese schools: examining the impact of legislation.

PubMed

Rocha, Ana Cristina; Duarte, Cidália

2015-02-01

To share Portugal's experience with school-based sexuality education, and to describe its implementation at a local level, following an ecological model and using a mixed methodology approach. The study also examines the impact of the latest policies put into effect, identifying potential weaknesses and strengths affecting the effectiveness of sexuality education enforcement. A representative sample of 296 schools in Portugal was analysed. Teachers representing the school completed a questionnaire and were asked to share any kind of official document from their sexuality education project (such as curriculum content). A subsample of these documents was analysed by two coders. Quantitative analysis was carried out using descriptive statistics. The majority of Portuguese schools delivered sexuality education, in line with Portuguese technical guidelines and international recommendations. There were common procedures in planning, implementation and evaluation of sexuality education. Some strengths and weaknesses were identified. Results highlighted the impact of the various systems on the planning, enforcement and evaluation of sexuality education in school. The latest policies introduced valuable changes in school-based sexuality education. A way of assessing effectiveness of sexuality education is still needed.

Quantifying climate change impacts on runoff of zoonotic pathogens from land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterk, Ankie; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; Stergiadi, Maria; de Nijs, Ton; Schijven, Jack

2013-04-01

Several studies have shown a correlation between rainfall and waterborne disease outbreaks. One of the mechanisms whereby rainfall may cause outbreaks is through an increase in runoff of animal faeces from fields to surface waters. Faeces originating from wildlife, domestic animals or manure-fertilized fields, is considered an important source of zoonotic pathogens to which people may be exposed by water recreation or drinking-water consumption. Climate changes affect runoff because of increasing winter precipitation and more extreme precipitation events, as well as changes in evaporation. Furthermore, drier summers are leading to longer periods of high soil moisture deficits, increasing the hydrophobicity of soil and consequently changing infiltration capacities. A conceptual model is designed to describe the impacts of climate changes on the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, which are both directly and indirectly affecting pathogen loads in the environment and subsequent public health risks. One of the major outcomes was the lack of quantitative data and limited qualitative analyses of impacts of climate changes on pathogen runoff. Quantifying the processes by which micro-organisms are transported from fields to waters is important to be able to estimate such impacts to enable targeted implementation of effective intervention measures. A quantitative model using Mathematica software will be developed to estimate concentrations of pathogens originating from overland flow during runoff events. Different input sources will be included by applying different land-use scenarios, including point source faecal pollution from dairy cows and geese and diffuse source pollution by fertilization. Zoonotic pathogens, i.e. Cryptosporidium and Campylobacter, were selected based on transport properties, faecal loads and disease burden. Transport and survival rates of these pathogens are determined including effects of changes in precipitation but also temperature induced changes on die-off. Moreover, besides climate and surface variables, changes in soil or vegetation and adjustments in agricultural policy are considered. Output of this model can be used to assess how expected climate changes could affect pathogen concentrations in surface waters. The long term aim is to include this information in a larger framework, to quantify the impact of climate change on the infection and eventual disease risks due to exposure to water transmitted pathogens.

Drivers of climate change impacts on bird communities.

PubMed

Pearce-Higgins, James W; Eglington, Sarah M; Martay, Blaise; Chamberlain, Dan E

2015-07-01

Climate change is reported to have caused widespread changes to species' populations and ecological communities. Warming has been associated with population declines in long-distance migrants and habitat specialists, and increases in southerly distributed species. However, the specific climatic drivers behind these changes remain undescribed. We analysed annual fluctuations in the abundance of 59 breeding bird species in England over 45 years to test the effect of monthly temperature and precipitation means upon population trends. Strong positive correlations between population growth and both winter and breeding season temperature were identified for resident and short-distance migrants. Lagged correlations between population growth and summer temperature and precipitation identified for the first time a widespread negative impact of hot, dry summer weather. Resident populations appeared to increase following wet autumns. Populations of long-distance migrants were negatively affected by May temperature, consistent with a potential negative effect of phenological mismatch upon breeding success. There was evidence for some nonlinear relationships between monthly weather variables and population growth. Habitat specialists and cold-associated species showed consistently more negative effects of higher temperatures than habitat generalists and southerly distributed species associated with warm temperatures. Results suggest that previously reported changes in community composition represent the accumulated effects of spring and summer warming. Long-term population trends were more significantly correlated with species' sensitivity to temperature than precipitation, suggesting that warming has had a greater impact on population trends than changes in precipitation. Months where there had been the greatest warming were the most influential drivers of long-term change. There was also evidence that species with the greatest sensitivity to extremes of precipitation have tended to decline. Our results provide novel insights about the impact of climate change on bird communities. Significant lagged effects highlight the potential for altered species' interactions to drive observed climate change impacts, although some community changes may have been driven by more immediate responses to warming. In England, resident and short-distance migrant populations have increased in response to climate change, but potentially at the expense of long-distance migrants, habitat specialists and cold-associated species. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Towards an integrated economic assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lotze-Campen, H.; Piontek, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Popp, A.; Bauer, N.; Dietrich, J.; Mueller, C.; Schmitz, C.

2012-12-01

For a detailed understanding of the effects of climate change on global agricultural production systems, it is essential to consider the variability of climate change patterns as projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs), their bio-physical impact on crops and the response in land-use patterns and markets. So far, approaches that account for the interaction of bio-physical and economic impacts are largely lacking. We present an integrative analysis by using a soft-coupled system of a biophysical impact model (LPJmL, Bondeau et al. 2007), an economically driven land use model (MAgPIE, Lotze-Campen et al. 2008) and an integrated assessment model (ReMIND-R, Leimbach et al. 2010) to study climate change impacts and economic damages in the agricultural sector. First, the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL is used to derive climate change impacts on crop yields for wheat, maize, soy, rice and other major crops. A range of different climate projections is used, taken from the dataset provided by the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org), which bias-corrected the latest CMIP5 climate data (Taylor et al. 2011). Crop yield impacts cover scenarios with and without CO2 fertilization as well as different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and different GCMs. With increasing temperature towards the end of the century yields generally decrease in tropical and subtropical regions, while they tend to benefit in higher latitudes. LPJmL results have been compared to other global crop models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP, www.agmip.org). Second, changes in crop yields are analysed with the spatially explicit agro-economic model MAgPIE, which covers their interaction with economic development and changes in food demand. Changes in prices as well as welfare changes of producer and consumer surplus are taken as economic indicators. Due to climate-change related reductions in crop productivity, producers in some regions face adaptation costs through either intensification or spatial expansion of agricultural production. Impacts are relatively small in the first half of the century, but intensify later. Additional adaptation options are investigated through the use of different levels of trade liberalization in the model (Schmitz et al. 2012). MAgPIE results also have been compared to other global agro-economic models in AgMIP. Third, climate-induced changes are aggregated for major world regions as the sum of producer and consumer surplus across spatial units. Different equity weighting schemes are investigated based on Frankhauser et al. (1997), in order to take spatial differences in population density and economic wealth into account. Finally, agricultural damages are implemented into the macro-economic framework of ReMIND-R. This approach of a detailed study of climate change impacts along the effect chain from bio-physical impacts to economic assessment is an important next step in the development of damage assessments with regard to long-term climate change. It will be extended in the future to other impact areas. The separate models involved have benefitted from checks for robustness in the course of AgMIP and other model intercomparison exercises.

Genomic data reveal a loss of diversity in two species of tuco-tucos (genus Ctenomys) following a volcanic eruption.

PubMed

Hsu, Jeremy L; Crawford, Jeremy Chase; Tammone, Mauro N; Ramakrishnan, Uma; Lacey, Eileen A; Hadly, Elizabeth A

2017-11-24

Marked reductions in population size can trigger corresponding declines in genetic variation. Understanding the precise genetic consequences of such reductions, however, is often challenging due to the absence of robust pre- and post-reduction datasets. Here, we use heterochronous genomic data from samples obtained before and immediately after the 2011 eruption of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcanic complex in Patagonia to explore the genetic impacts of this event on two parapatric species of rodents, the colonial tuco-tuco (Ctenomys sociabilis) and the Patagonian tuco-tuco (C. haigi). Previous analyses using microsatellites revealed no post-eruption changes in genetic variation in C. haigi, but an unexpected increase in variation in C. sociabilis. To explore this outcome further, we used targeted gene capture to sequence over 2,000 putatively neutral regions for both species. Our data revealed that, contrary to the microsatellite analyses, the eruption was associated with a small but significant decrease in genetic variation in both species. We suggest that genome-level analyses provide greater power than traditional molecular markers to detect the genetic consequences of population size changes, particularly changes that are recent, short-term, or modest in size. Consequently, genomic analyses promise to generate important new insights into the effects of specific environmental events on demography and genetic variation.

Do Natural Experiments of Changes in Neighborhood Built Environment Impact Physical Activity and Diet? A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

George, Emma S.; Feng, Xiaoqi; Merom, Dafna; Bennie, Andrew; Cook, Amelia; Dwyer, Genevieve; Pang, Bonnie; Astell-Burt, Thomas

2018-01-01

Physical activity and diet are major modifiable risk factors for chronic disease and have been shown to be associated with neighborhood built environment. Systematic review evidence from longitudinal studies on the impact of changing the built environment on physical activity and diet is currently lacking. A systematic review of natural experiments of neighborhood built environment was conducted. The aims of this systematic review were to summarize study characteristics, study quality, and impact of changes in neighborhood built environment on physical activity and diet outcomes among residents. Natural experiments of neighborhood built environment change, exploring longitudinal impacts on physical activity and/or diet in residents, were included. From five electronic databases, 2084 references were identified. A narrative synthesis was conducted, considering results in relation to study quality. Nineteen papers, reporting on 15 different exposures met inclusion criteria. Four studies included a comparison group and 11 were pre-post/longitudinal studies without a comparison group. Studies reported on the impact of redeveloping or introducing cycle and/or walking trails (n = 5), rail stops/lines (n = 4), supermarkets and farmers’ markets (n = 4) and park and green space (n = 2). Eight/15 studies reported at least one beneficial change in physical activity, diet or another associated health outcome. Due to limitations in study design and reporting, as well as the wide array of outcome measures reported, drawing conclusions to inform policy was challenging. Future research should consider a consistent approach to measure the same outcomes (e.g., using measurement methods that collect comparable physical activity and diet outcome data), to allow for pooled analyses. Additionally, including comparison groups wherever possible and ensuring high quality reporting is essential. PMID:29373567

Time-series analysis of the long-term hydrologic impacts of afforestation in the Águeda watershed of North-Central Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawtree, D.; Nunes, J. P.; Keizer, J. J.; Jacinto, R.; Santos, J.; Rial-Rivas, M. E.; Boulet, A.-K.; Tavares-Wahren, F.; Feger, K.-H.

2014-11-01

The north-central region of Portugal has undergone significant afforestation of the species Pinus pinaster and Eucalyptus globulus since the early 1900s; however, the long-term hydrologic impacts of this land cover change are not fully understood. To contribute to a better understanding of the potential hydrologic impacts of this land cover change, this study examines the temporal trends in 7 years of data from the Águeda watershed (part of the Vouga Basin) over the period of 1936 to 2010. Meteorological and hydrological records were analysed using a combined Thiel-Sen/Mann-Kendall trend testing approach, to assess the magnitude and significance of patterns in the observed data. These trend tests indicated that there had been no significant reduction in streamflow yield over either the entire test period, or during sub-record periods, despite the large-scale afforestation which had taken place. This lack of change is attributed to both the characteristics of the watershed and the nature of the land cover change. By contrast, a number of significant trends were found for baseflow index, which showed positive trends in the early data record (primarily during Pinus pinaster afforestation), followed by a reversal to negative trends later in the data record (primarily during Eucalyptus globulus afforestation). These changes are attributed to vegetation impacts on streamflow generating processes, both due to the species differences and to alterations in soil properties (i.e. promoting water repellency of the topsoil). These results highlight the importance of considering both vegetation types/dynamics and watershed characteristic when assessing hydrologic impacts, in particular with respect to soil properties.

Do Natural Experiments of Changes in Neighborhood Built Environment Impact Physical Activity and Diet? A Systematic Review.

PubMed

MacMillan, Freya; George, Emma S; Feng, Xiaoqi; Merom, Dafna; Bennie, Andrew; Cook, Amelia; Sanders, Taren; Dwyer, Genevieve; Pang, Bonnie; Guagliano, Justin M; Kolt, Gregory S; Astell-Burt, Thomas

2018-01-26

Physical activity and diet are major modifiable risk factors for chronic disease and have been shown to be associated with neighborhood built environment. Systematic review evidence from longitudinal studies on the impact of changing the built environment on physical activity and diet is currently lacking. A systematic review of natural experiments of neighborhood built environment was conducted. The aims of this systematic review were to summarize study characteristics, study quality, and impact of changes in neighborhood built environment on physical activity and diet outcomes among residents. Natural experiments of neighborhood built environment change, exploring longitudinal impacts on physical activity and/or diet in residents, were included. From five electronic databases, 2084 references were identified. A narrative synthesis was conducted, considering results in relation to study quality. Nineteen papers, reporting on 15 different exposures met inclusion criteria. Four studies included a comparison group and 11 were pre-post/longitudinal studies without a comparison group. Studies reported on the impact of redeveloping or introducing cycle and/or walking trails ( n = 5), rail stops/lines ( n = 4), supermarkets and farmers' markets ( n = 4) and park and green space ( n = 2). Eight/15 studies reported at least one beneficial change in physical activity, diet or another associated health outcome. Due to limitations in study design and reporting, as well as the wide array of outcome measures reported, drawing conclusions to inform policy was challenging. Future research should consider a consistent approach to measure the same outcomes (e.g., using measurement methods that collect comparable physical activity and diet outcome data), to allow for pooled analyses. Additionally, including comparison groups wherever possible and ensuring high quality reporting is essential.

A tool to evaluate local biophysical effects on temperature due to land cover change transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perugini, Lucia; Caporaso, Luca; Duveiller, Gregory; Cescatti, Alessandro; Abad-Viñas, Raul; Grassi, Giacomo; Quesada, Benjamin

2017-04-01

Land Cover Changes (LCC) affect local, regional and global climate through biophysical variations of the surface energy budget mediated by albedo, evapotranspiration, and roughness. Assessment of the full climate impacts of anthropogenic LCC are incomplete without considering biophysical effects, but the high level of uncertainties in quantifying their impacts to date have made it impractical to offer clear advice on which policy makers could act. To overcome this barrier, we provide a tool to evaluate the biophysical impact of a matrix of land cover transitions, following a tiered methodological approach similar to the one provided by the IPCC to estimate the biogeochemical effects, i.e. through three levels of methodological complexity, from Tier 1 (i.e. default method and factors) to Tier 3 (i.e. specific methods and factors). In particular, the tool provides guidance for quantitative assessment of changes in temperature following a land cover transition. The tool focuses on temperature for two main reasons (i) it is the main variable of interest for policy makers at local and regional level, and (ii) temperature is able to summarize the impact of radiative and non-radiative processes following LULCC. The potential changes in annual air temperature that can be expected from various land cover transitions are derived from a dedicated dataset constructed by the JRC in the framework of the LUC4C FP7 project. The inputs for the dataset are air temperature values derived from satellite Earth Observation data (MODIS) and land cover characterization from the ESA Climate Change Initiative product reclassified into their IPCC land use category equivalent. This data, originally at 0.05 degree of spatial resolution, is aggregated and analysed at regional level to provide guidance on the expected temperature impact following specific LCC transitions.

The impact of climate change on natural risks in the context of sustainable development: the case of Catalonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Queralt, Arnau

2013-04-01

The evidence of the impact of the anthropogenic activity over the climate change, as well as the consequent impacts in temperature, snow cover and sea level has been widely demonstrated (IPCC, 2007). However, the impact of climate change on natural risks is still not clear, and the degree of uncertainty is high. The main problem lays in the complexity of the factors involved in the production of natural disasters, mainly those related with the vulnerability (in the more holistic sense of the expression), that is continuously being modified. In terms of the impact of climate change on hazards, the analysis is still complicated, and this difficulty increases when meteorological hazards that combine meteorological factors with other ones (human and/or natural) are considered (i.e. floods, wet landslides, forest fires, etc.). The Advisory Council for the Sustainable Development of Catalonia (CADS) is an advisory body which gives strategic advice to the Catalan Government in the field of sustainable development. This contribution shows the main results of a recent report elaborated by the CADS that analyses the present and potential evolution of natural risks in Catalonia (NE of Iberian Peninsula) and the influence of climate change in it. The analysis is made from the point of view of sustainable development, having in mind the international approach (IPCC, 2007, 2011; UNISDR, 2009; Molin, 2009; Brauch, 2010) and with special incidence in potential problems related with security and civil protection. Conclusions identify as main problems those that will affect health (as a consequence of the increase of heat waves and temperature extremes) and water scarcity.

[Return to sport after surgical treatment of a posterior cruciate ligament injury : A retrospective study of 60 patients].

PubMed

Ahrend, M; Ateschrang, A; Döbele, S; Stöckle, U; Grünwald, L; Schröter, S; Ihle, C

2016-12-01

Injuries of the posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) lead to an initial reduction of sporting activity. However, in previous studies, return to sport after operative treatment of PCL injuries has been analysed insufficiently. The aim of this study was (1) to determine the rate of return to sport in physically active patients, (2) to analyse possible changes in sporting activities and (3) to examine the influence of the severity of the initial injury. Within a retrospective clinical and radiological follow-up at least 24 months after surgery (80.3 ± 28.2 months), 60 patients (44.8 ± 12.1 years) with surgically treated isolated or combined PCL injuries were included in the study. Pre-accidental and post-operative sporting activities were queried and compared in a standardised questionnaire. Possible differences with respect to the initial injury severity (Cooper classification) were examined. The return-to-sport rate of the physically active patients was 87.0 %. 17.6 % of patients with a combined PCL injury and 4.8 % of patients with isolated PCL injury were not able to return to sport. Significant reductions in the frequency of exercise (p = 0.0087), the duration of exercise (p = 0.0003) and the amount of regularly performed sports (p < 0.0001) were found. A change from high-impact sports to low-impact sports was noted. Patients with operatively treated PCL injuries can return to sport. However, for competitive athletes an injury to the PCL can lead to the end of their career. A reduction of sporting activities and a change from high-impact sports to low-impact sports can be expected. A persisting inability to return to sporting activities in patients with isolated PCL injuries cannot be assumed.

Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

2012-04-01

Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

The Climaware project: Impacts of climate change on water resources management - regional strategies and European view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirel, Guillaume; D'Agostino, Daniela; Démerliac, Stéphane; Dorchies, David; Flörke, Martina; Jay-Allemand, Maxime; Jost, Claudine; Kehr, Katrin; Perrin, Charles; Scardigno, Alessandra; Schneider, Christof; Theobald, Stephan; Träbing, Klaus

2014-05-01

Climate projections produced with CMIP5 and applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth assessment report indicate that changes in precipitation and temperature are expected to occur throughout Europe in the 21th century, with a likely decrease of water availability in many regions. Besides, water demand is also expected to increase, in link with these expected climate modifications, but also due to socio-economic and demographic changes. In this respect, the use of future freshwater resources may not be sustainable from the current water management perspective. Therefore adaptation strategies will most likely be needed to cope with these evolutions. In this context, the main objective of the ClimAware project (2010-2013 - www.uni-kassel.de/fb14/wasserbau/CLIMAWARE/, a project implemented within the IWRM-NET Funding Initiative) was to analyse the impacts of climate change (CC) on freshwater resources at the continental and regional scales and to identify efficient adaptation strategies to improve water management for various socio-economic sectors. This should contribute to a more effective implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and its instruments (river basin management plans, programmes of measures). The project developed integrated measures for improved freshwater management under CC constraints. More specifically, the objectives of the ClimAware project were to: • elaborate quantitative projections of changes in river flows and consequences such as flood frequency, drought occurrence and sectorial water uses. • analyse the effect of CC on the hydromorphological reference conditions of rivers and therefore the definition of "good status". • define management rules/strategies concerning dam management and irrigation practices on different time perspectives. • investigate uncertainties in climate model - scenario combinations. The research approach considered both European and regional perspectives, to get an integrated analysis across different spatial scales. To fulfil the objectives of the ClimAware project, the following modelling methodology was implemented. Starting from a European modelling approach of water availability and use based on the WaterGAP3 model, the changes in the hydrologic regimes and water use of different sectors were analysed. Subsequently three case studies were used to investigate the impacts of CC at a regional scale. Regional models from three different countries and focusing on three types of water management issues were developed: • Hydromorphology (Eder basin, Germany): By using different scenarios, the influence of CC on the hydromorphological characteristics of the River Weser according to the WFD was evaluated and proposals for implementation were given. The objective was to examine, on typical river sections, how the WFD objectives can be implemented under CC constraints. • Dam management (Seine basin, France): Water management on the River Seine for water supply and flood alleviation is partly based on the management of artificial reservoirs. The case study developed scenarios linking the impact of CC on water resources and the expected change on the uses and on the management of the system. • Agricultural water use (Apulia region, Italy): In this region, economic and demographic changes cause an increase in the demand for good-quality municipal and industrial water. Besides, changes in the agricultural practices increase the demand for water in the agricultural sector. Since water is scarce in this region, the study focuses on the agricultural sector, which has the largest water saving potential. The final assessment comprises a cross-scale integration between the European and regional modelling frameworks in order to facilitate knowledge transfer and to help establishing sustainable and integrated water resources management plans.

Local perceptions of climate change validated by scientific evidence in the Himalayas.

PubMed

Chaudhary, Pashupati; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2011-10-23

The Himalayas are assumed to be undergoing rapid climate change, with serious environmental, social and economic consequences for more than two billion people. However, data on the extent of climate change or its impact on the region are meagre. Based on local knowledge, we report perceived changes in climate and consequences of such changes for biodiversity and agriculture. Our analyses are based on 250 household interviews administered in 18 villages, and focused group discussions conducted in 10 additional villages in Darjeeling Hills, West Bengal, India and Ilam district of Nepal. There is a widespread feeling that weather is getting warmer, the water sources are drying up, the onset of summer and monsoon has advanced during last 10 years and there is less snow on mountains than before. Local perceptions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity included early budburst and flowering, new agricultural pests and weeds and appearance of mosquitoes. People at high altitudes appear more sensitive to climate change than those at low altitudes. Most local perceptions conform to scientific data. Local knowledge can be rapidly and efficiently gathered using systematic tools. Such knowledge can allow scientists to test specific hypotheses, and policy makers to design mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change, especially in an extraordinarily important part of our world that is experiencing considerable change.

Does rapid evolution matter? Measuring the rate of contemporary evolution and its impacts on ecological dynamics.

PubMed

Ellner, Stephen P; Geber, Monica A; Hairston, Nelson G

2011-06-01

Rapid contemporary evolution due to natural selection is common in the wild, but it remains uncertain whether its effects are an essential component of community and ecosystem structure and function. Previously we showed how to partition change in a population, community or ecosystem property into contributions from environmental and trait change, when trait change is entirely caused by evolution (Hairston et al. 2005). However, when substantial non-heritable trait change occurs (e.g. due to phenotypic plasticity or change in population structure) that approach can mis-estimate both contributions. Here, we demonstrate how to disentangle ecological impacts of evolution vs. non-heritable trait change by combining our previous approach with the Price Equation. This yields a three-way partitioning into effects of evolution, non-heritable phenotypic change and environment. We extend the approach to cases where ecological consequences of trait change are mediated through interspecific interactions. We analyse empirical examples involving fish, birds and zooplankton, finding that the proportional contribution of rapid evolution varies widely (even among different ecological properties affected by the same trait), and that rapid evolution can be important when it acts to oppose and mitigate phenotypic effects of environmental change. Paradoxically, rapid evolution may be most important when it is least evident. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Drivers of Change in Managed Water Resources: Modeling the Impacts of Climate and Socioeconomic Changes Using the US Midwest as a Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voisin, Nathalie; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.

A global integrated assessment model including a water-demand model driven by socio-economics, is coupled in a one-way fashion with a land surface hydrology – routing – water resources management model. The integrated modeling framework is applied to the U.S. Upper Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi, and Ohio) to advance understanding of the regional impacts of climate and socio-economic changes on integrated water resources. Implications for future flow regulation, water supply, and supply deficit are investigated using climate change projections with the B1 and A2 emission scenarios, which affect both natural flow and water demand. Changes in water demand are driven bymore » socio-economic factors, energy and food demands, global markets and prices. The framework identifies the multiple spatial scales of interactions between the drivers of changes (natural flow and water demand) and the managed water resources (regulated flow, supply and supply deficit). The contribution of the different drivers of change are quantified regionally, and also evaluated locally, using covariances. The integrated framework shows that water supply deficit is more predictable over the Missouri than the other regions in the Midwest. The predictability of the supply deficit mostly comes from long term changes in water demand although changes in runoff has a greater contribution, comparable to the contribution of changes in demand, over shorter time periods. The integrated framework also shows that spatially, water demand drives local supply deficit. Using elasticity, the sensitivity of supply deficit to drivers of change is established. The supply deficit is found to be more sensitive to changes in runoff than to changes in demand regionally. It contrasts with the covariance analysis that shows that water demand is the dominant driver of supply deficit over the analysed periods. The elasticity indicates the level of mitigation needed to control the demand in order to reduce the vulnerability of the integrated system in future periods. The elasticity analyses also emphasize the need to address uncertainty with respect to changes in natural flow in integrated assessment.« less

Using enterprise architecture to analyse how organisational structure impact motivation and learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Närman, Pia; Johnson, Pontus; Gingnell, Liv

2016-06-01

When technology, environment, or strategies change, organisations need to adjust their structures accordingly. These structural changes do not always enhance the organisational performance as intended partly because organisational developers do not understand the consequences of structural changes in performance. This article presents a model-based analysis framework for quantitative analysis of the effect of organisational structure on organisation performance in terms of employee motivation and learning. The model is based on Mintzberg's work on organisational structure. The quantitative analysis is formalised using the Object Constraint Language (OCL) and the Unified Modelling Language (UML) and implemented in an enterprise architecture tool.

The influence of car registration year on driver casualty rates in Great Britain.

PubMed

Broughton, Jeremy

2012-03-01

A previous paper analysed data from the British national road accident reporting system to investigate the influence upon car driver casualty rates of the general type of car being driven and its year of first registration. A statistical model was fitted to accident data from 2001 to 2005, and this paper updates the principal results using accident data from 2003 to 2007. Attention focuses upon the role of year of first registration since this allows the influence of developments in car design upon occupant casualty numbers to be evaluated. Three additional topics are also examined with these accident data. Changes over time in frontal and side impacts are compared. Changes in the combined risk for the two drivers involved in a car-car collision are investigated, being the net result of changes in secondary safety and aggressivity. Finally, the results of the new model relating to occupant protection are related to an index that had been developed previously to analyse changes over time in the secondary safety of the car fleet. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Wet Soil and Canopy Temperatures on Daytime Boundary-Layer Growth.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segal, M.; Garratt, J. R.; Kallos, G.; Pielke, R. A.

1989-12-01

The impact of very wet soil and canopy temperatures on the surface sensible heat flux, and on related daytime boundary-layer properties is evaluated. For very wet soils, two winter situations are considered, related to significant changes in soil surface temperature: (1) due to weather perturbations at a given location, and (2) due to the climatological north-south temperature gradient. Analyses and scaling of the various boundary-layer properties, and soil surface fluxes affecting the sensible beat flux, have been made; related evaluations show that changes in the sensible heat flux at a given location by a factor of 2 to 3 due to temperature changes related to weather perturbations is not uncommon. These changes result in significant alterations in the boundary-layer depth; in the atmospheric boundary-layer warming; and in the break-up time of the nocturnal surface temperature inversion. Investigation of the impact of the winter latitudinal temperature gradient on the above characteristics indicated that the relative increase in very wet soil sensible heat flux, due to the climatological reduction in the surface temperature in northern latitudes, moderates to some extent its reduction due to the corresponding decrease in solar radiation. Numerical model simulations confirmed these analytical evaluations.In addition, the impact of synoptic temperature perturbations during the transition seasons (fall and spring) on canopy sensible heal fluxes, and the related boundary-layer characteristics mentioned above, was evaluated. Analogous features to those found for very wet soil surfaces occurred also for the canopy situations. Likewise, evaluations were also carried out to explore the impact of high midlatitude foreste areas on the boundary-layer characteristics during the winter as compared to those during the summer. Similar impacts were found in both seasons, regardless of the substantial difference in the daily total solar radiation.

The mental health sector and the social sciences in post- World War II USA. Part 2: The impact of federal research funding and the drugs revolution.

PubMed

Scull, Andrew

2011-09-01

The second of two linked papers examining the interactions of psychiatry and the social sciences since World War II examines the role of NIMH on these disciplines. It analyses the effects of the prominence and the decline of psychoanalysis, and the impact of the psychotropic drugs revolution and the associated rise of biological psychiatry on relations between psychiatry and clinical psychology; and it explores the changing relationships between psychiatry and sociology, from collaboration to conflict to mutual disdain.

Global Priority Conservation Areas in the Face of 21st Century Climate Change

PubMed Central

Li, Junsheng; Lin, Xin; Chen, Anping; Peterson, Townsend; Ma, Keping; Bertzky, Monika; Ciais, Philippe; Kapos, Valerie; Peng, Changhui; Poulter, Benjamin

2013-01-01

In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the “Global 200” ecoregions – a set of priority ecoregions designed to “achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth’s ecosystems” – over the 21st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991–2010 and 2081–2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability) to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change. PMID:23359638

IMPACT_S: integrated multiprogram platform to analyze and combine tests of selection.

PubMed

Maldonado, Emanuel; Sunagar, Kartik; Almeida, Daniela; Vasconcelos, Vitor; Antunes, Agostinho

2014-01-01

Among the major goals of research in evolutionary biology are the identification of genes targeted by natural selection and understanding how various regimes of evolution affect the fitness of an organism. In particular, adaptive evolution enables organisms to adapt to changing ecological factors such as diet, temperature, habitat, predatory pressures and prey abundance. An integrative approach is crucial for the identification of non-synonymous mutations that introduce radical changes in protein biochemistry and thus in turn influence the structure and function of proteins. Performing such analyses manually is often a time-consuming process, due to the large number of statistical files generated from multiple approaches, especially when assessing numerous taxa and/or large datasets. We present IMPACT_S, an easy-to-use Graphical User Interface (GUI) software, which rapidly and effectively integrates, filters and combines results from three widely used programs for assessing the influence of selection: Codeml (PAML package), Datamonkey and TreeSAAP. It enables the identification and tabulation of sites detected by these programs as evolving under the influence of positive, neutral and/or negative selection in protein-coding genes. IMPACT_S further facilitates the automatic mapping of these sites onto the three-dimensional structures of proteins. Other useful tools incorporated in IMPACT_S include Jmol, Archaeopteryx, Gnuplot, PhyML, a built-in Swiss-Model interface and a PDB downloader. The relevance and functionality of IMPACT_S is shown through a case study on the toxicoferan-reptilian Cysteine-rich Secretory Proteins (CRiSPs). IMPACT_S is a platform-independent software released under GPLv3 license, freely available online from http://impact-s.sourceforge.net.

Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William

1999-01-01

The objective of the research is to derive an assessment of the potential climate change impacts on a global city - in this case the 31 county region that comprises the New York City metropolitan area. This study comprises one of the regional components that contribute to the ongoing U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change and is an application of state-of-the-art climate change science to a set of linked sectoral assessment analyses for the Metro East Coast (MEC) region. We illustrate how three interacting elements of global cities react and respond to climate variability and change with a broad conceptual model. These elements include: people (e.g., socio- demographic conditions), place (e.g., physical systems), and pulse (e.g., decision-making and economic activities). The model assumes that a comprehensive assessment of potential climate change can be derived from examining the impacts within each of these elements and at their intersections. Thus, the assessment attempts to determine the within-element and the inter-element effects. Five interacting sector studies representing the three intersecting elements are evaluated. They include the Coastal Zone, Infrastructure, Water Supply, Public Health, and Institutional Decision-making. Each study assesses potential climate change impacts on the sector and on the intersecting elements, through the analysis of the following parts: 1. Current conditions of sector in the region; 2. Lessons and evidence derived from past climate variability; 3. Scenario predictions affecting sector; potential impacts of scenario predictions; 4. Knowledge/information gaps and critical issues including identification of additional research questions, effectiveness of modeling efforts, equity of impacts, potential non-local interactions, and policy recommendations; and 5. Identification of coping strategies - i.e., resilience building, mitigation strategies, new technologies, education that affects decision-making, and better preparedness for contingencies.

Can martial arts techniques reduce fall severity? An in vivo study of femoral loading configurations in sideways falls.

PubMed

van der Zijden, A M; Groen, B E; Tanck, E; Nienhuis, B; Verdonschot, N; Weerdesteyn, V

2012-06-01

Sideways falls onto the hip are a major cause of femoral fractures in the elderly. Martial arts (MA) fall techniques decrease hip impact forces in sideways falls. The femoral fracture risk, however, also depends on the femoral loading configuration (direction and point of application of the force). The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of fall techniques, landing surface and fall height on the impact force and the loading configuration in sideways falls. Twelve experienced judokas performed sideways MA and Block ('natural') falls on a force plate, both with and without a judo mat on top. Kinematic and force data were analysed to determine the hip impact force and the loading configuration. In falls from a kneeling position, the MA technique reduced the impact force by 27%, but did not change the loading configuration. The use of the mat did not change the loading configuration. Falling from a standing changed the force direction. In all conditions, the point of application was distal and posterior to the greater trochanter, but it was less distal and more posterior in falls from standing than from kneeling position. The present decrease in hip impact force with an unchanged loading configuration indicates the potential protective effect of the MA technique on the femoral fracture risk. The change in loading configuration with an increased fall height warrant further studies to examine the effect of MA techniques on fall severity under more natural fall circumstances. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transferring climate research results to stakeholder needs in Northern Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinke, Insa

2013-04-01

The North German Climate Office was established in 2006 at the Institute for Coastal Research at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany as consequence of an increased public information need regarding coastal climate change and its impacts in Northern Germany. The service is characterized by an intensive dialogue between regional climate research and stakeholders in Northern Germany. About once a week scientists of the North German climate office are invited to contribute to public dialogue events. Also, numerous direct inquiries are answered and expert interviews are conducted. From this dialogue process specific stakeholder information needs are localized and analysed to develop tailored information products. To provide easy and user specific access to research results interactive web tools are developed. One example is the North German climate atlas, an interactive web tool on possible future climate change in Northern Germany. Another interactive web tool is informing on present and future coastal protection needs in Northern Germany. Another aim of our information products is to assess and summarize the existing scientific knowledge on climate, climate change and impacts in Northern Germany. A mini IPCC-like regional assessment report has been published in 2010, which is summarizing, discussing and assessing the scientific knowledge on regional climate, climate change and impacts as well as possible adaptation strategies in the metropolitan region of Hamburg.

Regional Climate Service in Northern Germany -The North German Climate Office

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinke, I.; Von Storch, H.

2012-12-01

The North German Climate Office was established in 2006 at the Institute for Coastal Research at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany as consequence of an increased public information need regarding coastal climate change and its impacts in Northern Germany. The service is characterized by an intensive dialogue between regional climate research and stakeholders in Northern Germany. About once a week scientists of the North German climate office are invited to contribute to public dialogue events. Also numerous direct inquiries are answered and expert interviews are conducted. From this dialogue process specific stakeholder information needs are localized and analysed to develop tailored information products. To provide easy and user specific access to research results interactive web tools are developed. One example is the North German climate atlas, an interactive web tool on possible future climate change in Northern Germany. Another interactive web tool is informing on present and future coastal protection needs in Northern Germany. Another aim of our information products is to assess and summarize the existing scientific knowledge on climate, climate change and impacts in Northern Germany. A mini IPCC-like regional assessment report has been published in 2010, which is summarizing, discussing and assessing the scientific knowledge on regional climate, climate change and impacts as well as possible adaptation strategies in the metropolitan region of Hamburg.

Morphological change in cranial shape following the transition to agriculture across western Eurasia.

PubMed

Cheronet, Olivia; Finarelli, John A; Pinhasi, Ron

2016-09-13

The Neolithic transition brought about fundamental social, dietary and behavioural changes in human populations, which, in turn, impacted skeletal morphology. Crania are shaped through diverse genetic, ontogenetic and environmental factors, reflecting various elements of an individual's life. To determine the transition's effect on cranial morphology, we investigated its potential impact on the face and vault, two elements potentially responding to different influences. Three datasets from geographically distant regions (Ukraine, Iberia, and the Levant plus Anatolia) were analysed. Craniometric measurements were used to compare the morphology of pre-transition populations with that of agricultural populations. The Neolithic transition corresponds to a statistically significant increase only in cranial breadth of the Ukrainian vaults, while facial morphology shows no consistent transformations, despite expected changes related to the modification of masticatory behaviour. The broadening of Ukrainian vaults may be attributable to dietary and/or social changes. However, the lack of change observed in the other geographical regions and the lack of consistent change in facial morphology are surprising. Although the transition from foraging to farming is a process that took place repeatedly across the globe, different characteristics of transitions seem responsible for idiosyncratic responses in cranial morphology.

Health and vitality assessment of two common pine species in the context of climate change in southern Europe.

PubMed

Sicard, Pierre; Dalstein-Richier, Laurence

2015-02-01

The Mediterranean Basin is expected to be more strongly affected by ongoing climate change than most other regions of the earth. The South-eastern France can be considered as case study for assessing global change impacts on forests. Based on non-parametric statistical tests, the climatic parameters (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, global radiation) and forest-response indicators (crown defoliation, discoloration and visible foliar ozone injury) of two pine species (Pinus halepensis and Pinus cembra) were analyzed. In the last 20 years, the trend analyses reveal a clear hotter and drier climate along the coastline and slightly rainier inland. In the current climate change context, a reduction in ground-level ozone (O3) was found at remote sites and the visible foliar O3 injury decreased while deterioration of the crown conditions was observed likely due to a drier and warmer climate. Clearly, if such climatic and ecological changes are now being detected when the climate, in South-eastern France, has warmed in the last 20 years (+0.46-1.08°C), it can be expected that many more impacts on tree species will occur in response to predicted temperature changes by 2100 (+1.95-4.59°C). Climate change is projected to reduce the benefits of O3 precursor emissions controls leading to a higher O3 uptake. However, the drier and warmer climate should induce a soil drought leading to a lower O3 uptake. These two effects, acting together in an opposite way, could mitigate the harmful impacts of O3 on forests. The development of coordinated emission abatement strategies is useful to reduce both climate change and O3 pollution. Climate change will create additional challenges for forest management with substantial socio-economic and biological diversity impacts. However, the development of future sustainable and adaptive forest management strategies has the potential to reduce the vulnerability of forest species to climate change. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamics in Protected Areas and Domesticated Landscapes Caused by Climate Change and Anthropogenic Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartter, J.; Ryan, S.; Stampone, M.; Chapman, C.

2009-12-01

Climate change, a key factor of concern for conservation, has important biological and social implications. Africa’s Albertine Rift is an area of extremely high endemic biodiversity and is classed as a world conservation priority. However, natural areas are represented by a chain of protected forest areas in a matrix of intensive smallholder agriculture and dense human settlements. Kibale National Park in western Uganda has become an island of forest surrounded by intensive small-scale agriculture and is the only remaining large area of mid-altitude forest remaining in Albertine Rift Region and East Africa. Increased temperature and precipitation over recent decades has been observed by scientists and local farmers, however, to date, rigorous analysis of local climate data and the impact of climate change on local resources does not exist. Moreover, local farmers report that some crops die or ripen too early because of increased precipitation. Conservation biologists and park managers are concerned that changes in tree phenology and primary productivity will alter wildlife feeding preferences and ranges leading to more human-wildlife conflict. Understanding the impact of local and regional climate change and variation within the social, conservation, and geographic context is necessary to construct informed management plans and to maintain positive park-people relationships. This paper describes our first attempt to fully integrate multiple temporal and spatial datasets, and our progress in developing an interdisciplinary framework to study social and ecological relationships in the Kibale landscape. We examine historical in situ climate data and proxy climate information derived from remotely sensed satellite-borne imagery in our preliminary analyses. Our goal is to link these data with both pre-existing imagery analyses and tree community composition and phenology data from 39 years of ongoing research to identify the pattern, trajectory, and drivers of local environmental change in and around Kibale National Park. We will also incorporate knowledge of local people’s perceived risks due to change and their adaptation to that change.

Multi-Factor Impact Analysis of Agricultural Production in Bangladesh with Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Major, David C.; Yu, Winston H.; Alam, Mozaharul; Hussain, Sk. Ghulam; Khan, Abu Saleh; Hassan, Ahmadul; Al Hossain, Bhuiya Md. Tamim; Goldberg, Richard; Horton, Radley M.;

Remotely-Sensed Urban Wet-Landscapes AN Indicator of Coupled Effects of Human Impact and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Wei

2016-06-01

This study proposes the concept of urban wet-landscapes (loosely-defined wetlands) as against dry-landscapes (mainly impervious surfaces). The study is to examine whether the dynamics of urban wet-landscapes is a sensitive indicator of the coupled effects of the two major driving forces of urban landscape change - human built-up impact and climate (precipitation) variation. Using a series of satellite images, the study was conducted in the Kansas City metropolitan area of the United States. A rule-based classification algorithm was developed to identify fine-scale, hidden wetlands that could not be appropriately detected based on their spectral differentiability by a traditional image classification. The spatial analyses of wetland changes were implemented at the scales of metropolitan, watershed, and sub-watershed as well as based on the size of surface water bodies in order to reveal urban wetland change trends in relation to the driving forces. The study identified that wet-landscape dynamics varied in trend and magnitude from the metropolitan, watersheds, to sub-watersheds. The study also found that increased precipitation in the region in the past decades swelled larger wetlands in particular while smaller wetlands decreased mainly due to human development activities. These findings suggest that wet-landscapes, as against the dry-landscapes, can be a more effective indicator of the coupled effects of human impact and climate change.

Middle-Class Families and School Choice: Freedom versus Equity in the Context of a "Local Education Market"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reinoso, Antonio Olmedo

2008-01-01

This article analyses the impact of social class on the process of school choice in Spain from the viewpoint of middle-class families. This practice must be seen in the framework of the new social context generated by the information society. The article begins by briefly describing changes in school choice policies in Spain. For a wider…

Assessment of the 1998–2001 drought impact on forest health in southeastern forests: an analysis of drought severity using FHM data

Treesearch

R. J. Klos; G. G. Wang; W. L. Bauerle

2010-01-01

Analyses of forest health indicators monitored through the Forest Health and Monitoring (FHM) program suggested that weather was the most important cause of tree mortality. Drought is of particular importance among weather variables because several global climate change scenarios predicted more frequent and/or intense drought in the Southeastern United States. During...

The Role of Reflection and Collaboration in the Evolution of a Group of Novice Secondary Education Science Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cuesta, Josefa; Azcárate, Pilar; Cardeñoso, José Maria

2016-01-01

The present article analyses the changes in practices, ideas, and attitudes proposed by a group of novice science teachers during a further education teacher training program. The research on which it is based is focused on monitoring the training program and its impact on the participating teachers. The training program has as its starting point…

Protecting the Great Barrier Reef: Analysing the Impact of a Conservation Documentary and Post-Viewing Strategies on Long-Term Conservation Behaviour

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hofman, Karen; Hughes, Karen

2018-01-01

Nature-based tourism experiences have the potential to change the environmental knowledge, attitudes and behavior of visitors; but such experiences may be beyond the physical and/or financial reach of many people. To influence the conservation behavior of populations world-wide, a more accessible yet equally effective strategy is required. Using…

E-Learning, Resilience and Change in Higher Education: Helping a University Cope after a Natural Disaster

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ayebi-Arthur, Kofi

2017-01-01

This paper presents a case study of one College of Business (College of Business and Law from 2013) impacted in 2011 by earthquakes in New Zealand. Analyses from interviews of nine staff and documents were used to describe processes of increasing resilience with e-learning over the worst seismic events. Increasing deployment of the University's…

Joint and National Intelligence Support to Military Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-10-07

missions. The goal is to maximize the impact of intelligence on military operations by increasing the efficiency of the intelligence process and the...intelligence support to military operations will be affected by non-threat-related environmental factors such as requisite changes in sources and...tailored and highly detailed intelligence analyses of a wide variety of human and information environmental factors, such as public attitudes and

Comparing efficacy of different taxonomic resolutions and surrogates in detecting changes in soft bottom assemblages due to coastal defence structures.

PubMed

Bertasi, Fabio; Colangelo, Marina Antonia; Colosio, Francesco; Gregorio, Gianni; Abbiati, Marco; Ceccherelli, Victor Ugo

2009-05-01

Sandy shores on the West coast of the North Adriatic Sea are extensively protected by different types of defence structures to prevent coastal erosion. Coastal defence schemes modify the hydrodynamic regime, the sediment structure and composition thus affecting the benthic assemblages. This study examines the effectiveness in detecting changes in soft bottom assemblages caused by coastal defence structures by using different levels of taxonomic resolution, polychaetes and/or bivalves as surrogates and different data transformations. A synoptic analyses of three datasets of subtidal benthic macrofauna used in studies aimed at assessing the impact of breakwaters along the North Adriatic coast has been done. Analyses of similarities and correlations between distance matrices were done using matrices with different levels of taxonomic resolution, and with polychaetes or bivalves data alone. Lentidium mediterraneum was the most abundant species in all datasets. Its abundance was not consistently related to the presence of defence structures. Moreover, distribution patterns of L. mediterraneum were masking the structure of the whole macrofaunal assemblages. Removal of L. mediterraneum from the datasets allowed the detection of changes in benthic assemblages due to coastal defences. Analyses on different levels of taxonomic resolution showed that the level of family maintained sufficient information to detect the impacts of coastal defence structures on benthic assemblages. Moreover, the outcomes depended on the transformation used. Patterns of distribution of bivalves, used as surrogates, showed low correlations with the patterns of the total macrofaunal species assemblages. Patterns of polychaetes, if identified to the species or genus level showed higher correlations with the whole dataset. However, the identification of polychaetes to species and genus level is as costly as the identification of all macrobenthic taxa at family level. This study provided additional evidences that taxonomic sufficiency is a useful tool in environmental monitoring, also in investigations on the impacts of coastal defence structures on subtidal macrofauna. The use of coarser taxonomic level, being time-efficient, would allow improving sampling designs of monitoring programs by increasing replication in space and time and by allowing long term monitoring studies.

Assessing spatiotemporal variation of drought and its impact on maize yield in Northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Enliang; Liu, Xingpeng; Zhang, Jiquan; Wang, Yongfang; Wang, Cailin; Wang, Rui; Li, Danjun

2017-10-01

In the context of global climate change, drought has become an important factor that affects the maize yield in China. To analyse the impact of drought on maize yield loss in Northeast China in current and future climate scenarios, the Composite Meteorological Drought Index (CI) is introduced to reconstruct the following drought indicators: drought accumulative days (DAD), drought accumulative intensity (DAI), and consecutive drought days (CDD). These three drought indicators are used to describe the three-dimensional characteristics of drought in this study. Sen's slope method and three-dimensional copula functions are adopted to analyse the variety of drought features, and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) is used to analyse the variations in maize yield. A temporal assessment of the standardized yield residuals series (SYRS) of maize from 1961 to 2014 is conducted. A panel regression model is applied to demonstrate the drought impact on maize yield at various growth stages under the RCP4.5 scenario. The results show that the drought risk level for midwest Jilin Province, western Liaoning, and eastern Heilongjiang increase with global warming in the current scenario. The shorter three-dimensional joint return periods, 44-80 yr, were mainly located in western Jilin Province, Liaodong Peninsula, and northwestern Liaoning. Eastern Heilongjiang has a slightly longer joint return period of 80-100 yr. The SYRS shows a strong statistical correlation with drought indicator variations; drought-prone regions exhibit strong positive correlations. In comparison, excess precipitation regions show strong negative correlations with drought indicators in most growth stages. Drought indicators have a relatively strong association with SYRS at the milky-mature maize growth stage, and the occurrence of drought during this period primarily determines the maize yield changes in the future. Maize yield changes are -2.04%, -2.65% and -1.57% for Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang Province under the RCP4.5 scenario. These results can be used as a tool for early warning of drought risk to maize, and will accelerate the progress of drought disaster risk management.

Applying simple water-energy balance frameworks to predict the climate sensitivity of streamflow over the continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renner, M.; Bernhofer, C.

2012-08-01

The prediction of climate effects on terrestrial ecosystems and water resources is one of the major research questions in hydrology. Conceptual water-energy balance models can be used to gain a first order estimate of how long-term average streamflow is changing with a change in water and energy supply. A common framework for investigation of this question is based on the Budyko hypothesis, which links hydrological response to aridity. Recently, Renner et al. (2012) introduced the climate change impact hypothesis (CCUW), which is based on the assumption that the total efficiency of the catchment ecosystem to use the available water and energy for actual evapotranspiration remains constant even under climate changes. Here, we confront the climate sensitivity approaches (the Budyko approach of Roderick and Farquhar, 2011, and the CCUW) with data of more than 400 basins distributed over the continental United States. We first estimate the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in precipitation using long-term average data of the period 1949 to 2003. This provides a hydro-climatic status of the respective basins as well as their expected proportional effect to changes in climate. Next, we test the ability of both approaches to predict climate impacts on streamflow by splitting the data into two periods. We (i) analyse the long-term average changes in hydro-climatology and (ii) derive a statistical classification of potential climate and basin change impacts based on the significance of observed changes in runoff, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. Then we (iii) use the different climate sensitivity methods to predict the change in streamflow given the observed changes in water and energy supply and (iv) evaluate the predictions by (v) using the statistical classification scheme and (vi) a conceptual approach to separate the impacts of changes in climate from basin characteristics change on streamflow. This allows us to evaluate the observed changes in streamflow as well as to assess the impact of basin changes on the validity of climate sensitivity approaches. The apparent increase of streamflow of the majority of basins in the US is dominated by an increase in precipitation. It is further evident that impacts of changes in basin characteristics appear simultaneously with climate changes. There are coherent spatial patterns with catchments where basin changes compensate for climatic changes being dominant in the western and central parts of the US. A hot spot of basin changes leading to excessive runoff is found within the US Midwest. The impact of basin changes on the prediction is large and can be twice as much as the observed change signal. Although the CCUW and the Budyko approach yield similar predictions for most basins, the data of water-limited basins support the Budyko framework rather than the CCUW approach, which is known to be invalid under limiting climatic conditions.

Media coverage and hospital notifications: Correlation analysis and optimal media impact duration to manage a pandemic.

PubMed

Yan, Qinling; Tang, Sanyi; Gabriele, Sandra; Wu, Jianhong

2016-02-07

News reporting has the potential to modify a community's knowledge of emerging infectious diseases and affect peoples' attitudes and behavior. Here we developed a quantitative approach to evaluate the effects of media on such behavior. Statistically significant correlations between the number of new hospital notifications, during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza epidemic in the Shaanxi province of China, and the number of daily news items added to eight major websites were found from Pearson correlation and cross-correlation analyses. We also proposed a novel model to examine the implication for transmission dynamics of these correlations. The model incorporated the media impact function into the intensity of infection, and enhanced the traditional epidemic SEIR model with the addition of media dynamics. We used a nonlinear least squares estimation to identify the best-fit parameter values in the model from the observed data. We also carried out the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to determine key parameters during early phase of the disease outbreak for the final outcome of the outbreak with media impact. The findings confirm the importance of responses by individuals to the media reports, with behavior changes having important consequence for the emerging infectious disease control. Therefore, for mitigating emerging infectious diseases, media reports should be focused on how to guide people's behavioral changes, which are critical for limiting the spread of disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysing the response of European ecosystems to droughts and heat waves within ISI-MIP2 simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dury, M.; Henrot, A. J.; Francois, L. M.; Munhoven, G.; Jacquemin, I.; Friend, A. D.; Rademacher, T. T.; Hacket Pain, A. J.; Hickler, T.

2015-12-01

With unprecedented speed and extent, the future climate change can be expected to severely impact terrestrial ecosystems due to more frequent extreme events, such as droughts or heat waves. What will be the impacts of these extreme events on ecosystem functioning and structure? How far will net primary production be reduced by such events? What will be the impact on plant mortality? Could such events trigger changes in the abundance of plant species, thus leading to biome shifts? In this contribution, we propose to use ISI-MIP2 model historical simulations from the biome sector to analyse the response of ecosystems to droughts or heat waves, trying to understand the differences between several vegetation models (e.g. CARAIB, HYBRID, LPJ). The analysis will focus on Europe. It will compare and assess the model responses for a series of well-marked drought or heat wave events in the simulated historical period, such as those that occurred in 1976, 2003 or 2010. This analysis will be performed in terms of several important environmental variables, like soil water and hydric stress, runoff, PFT abundance, net primary productivity and biomass, fire frequency, turnover of soil organic matter, etc. Whenever possible, the response of the model will be compared to available data for the most recent well-marked events. Examples of data to be used are eddy covariance, satellite data (including leaf area and fire occurrence) or tree rings.

Developments in Climate and Soil Water Storage in the Locality of Poiplie

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pásztorová, Mária

2013-03-01

Climate change is one of the largest threats to the modern world. It is primarily experienced via changes and extreme weather events, including air temperature changes, the uneven distribution of precipitation and an increase in the alteration of torrential short-term precipitation and longer non-precipitation periods. However climate change is not only a change in the weather; it also has a much larger impact on an ecosystem. As a result of expected climate change, a lack of either surface water or groundwater could occur within wetlands; thus, the existence of wetlands and their flora and fauna could be threatened. This submitted work analyses the impact of climate change on the wetland ecosystems of Poiplie, which is situated in the south of Slovakia in the Ipeľ river basin. The area is an important wetland biotope with rare plant and animal species, which mainly live in open water areas, marshes, wet meadows and alluvial forests. To evaluate any climate change, the CGCM 3.1 model, two emission scenarios, the A2 emission scenario (pessimistic) and the B1 emission scenario (optimistic), were used within the regionalization. For simulating the soil water storage, which is one of the components of a soil water regime, the GLOBAL mathematical model was used.

Living with extreme weather events - perspectives from climatology, geomorphological analysis, chronicles and opinion polls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auer, I.; Kirchengast, A.; Proske, H.

2009-09-01

The ongoing climate change debate focuses more and more on changing extreme events. Information on past events can be derived from a number of sources, such as instrumental data, residual impacts in the landscape, but also chronicles and people's memories. A project called "A Tale of Two Valleys” within the framework of the research program "proVision” allowed to study past extreme events in two inner-alpine valleys from the sources mentioned before. Instrumental climate time series provided information for the past 200 years, however great attention had to be given to the homogeneity of the series. To derive homogenized time series of selected climate change indices methods like HOCLIS and Vincent have been applied. Trend analyses of climate change indices inform about increase or decrease of extreme events. Traces of major geomorphodynamic processes of the past (e.g. rockfalls, landslides, debris flows) which were triggered or affected by extreme weather events are still apparent in the landscape and could be evaluated by geomorphological analysis using remote sensing and field data. Regional chronicles provided additional knowledge and covered longer periods back in time, however compared to meteorological time series they enclose a high degree of subjectivity and intermittent recordings cannot be obviated. Finally, questionnaires and oral history complemented our picture of past extreme weather events. People were differently affected and have different memories of it. The joint analyses of these four data sources showed agreement to some extent, however also showed some reasonable differences: meteorological data are point measurements only with a sometimes too coarse temporal resolution. Due to land-use changes and improved constructional measures the impact of an extreme meteorological event may be different today compared to earlier times.

Hydrological impact of high-density small dams in a humid catchment, Southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, W.; Lei, H.; Yang, D.

2017-12-01

The Jiulong River basin is a humid catchment with a drainage area of 14,741 km2; however, it has over 1000 hydropower stations within it. Such catchment with high-density small dams is scarce in China. Yet few is known about the impact of high-density small dams on streamflow changes. To what extent the large number of dams alters the hydrologic patterns is a fundamental scientific issue for water resources management, flood control, and aquatic ecological environment protection. Firstly, trend and change point analyses are applied to determine the characteristics of inter-annual streamflow. Based on the detected change point, the study period is divided into two study periods, the ``natural'' and ``disturbed'' periods. Then, a geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM) and the fixing-changing method are adopted to evaluate the relative contributions of climate variations and damming to the changes in streamflow at each temporal scale (i.e., from daily, monthly to annual). Based on the simulated natural streamflow, the impact of dam construction on hydrologic alteration and aquatic ecological environment will be evaluated. The hydrologic signatures that will be investigated include flood peak, seasonality of streamflow, and the inter-annual variability of streamflow. In particular, the impacts of damming on aquatic ecological environment will be investigated using eco-flow metrics and indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA) which contains 33 individual streamflow statistics that are closely related to aquatic ecosystem. The results of this study expect to provide a reference for reservoir operation considering both ecological and economic benefits of such operations in the catchment with high-density dams.

Groundwater vulnerability to climate change: A review of the assessment methodology.

PubMed

Aslam, Rana Ammar; Shrestha, Sangam; Pandey, Vishnu Prasad

2018-01-15

Impacts of climate change on water resources, especially groundwater, can no longer be hidden. These impacts are further exacerbated under the integrated influence of climate variability, climate change and anthropogenic activities. The degree of impact varies according to geographical location and other factors leading systems and regions towards different levels of vulnerability. In the recent past, several attempts have been made in various regions across the globe to quantify the impacts and consequences of climate and non-climate factors in terms of vulnerability to groundwater resources. Firstly, this paper provides a structured review of the available literature, aiming to critically analyse and highlight the limitations and knowledge gaps involved in vulnerability (of groundwater to climate change) assessment methodologies. The effects of indicator choice and the importance of including composite indicators are then emphasised. A new integrated approach for the assessment of groundwater vulnerability to climate change is proposed to successfully address those limitations. This review concludes that the choice of indicator has a significant role in defining the reliability of computed results. The effect of an individual indicator is also apparent but the consideration of a combination (variety) of indicators may give more realistic results. Therefore, in future, depending upon the local conditions and scale of the study, indicators from various groups should be chosen. Furthermore, there are various assumptions involved in previous methodologies, which limit their scope by introducing uncertainty in the calculated results. These limitations can be overcome by implementing the proposed approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of new technologies on stress, attrition and well-being in emergency call centers: the NextGeneration 9-1-1 study protocol.

PubMed

Baseman, Janet; Revere, Debra; Painter, Ian; Stangenes, Scott; Lilly, Michelle; Beaton, Randal; Calhoun, Rebecca; Meischke, Hendrika

2018-05-04

Our public health emergency response system relies on the "first of the first responders"-the emergency call center workforce that handles the emergency needs of a public in distress. Call centers across the United States have been preparing for the "Next Generation 9-1-1" initiative, which will allow citizens to place 9-1-1 calls using a variety of digital technologies. The impacts of this initiative on a workforce that is already highly stressed is unknown. There is concern that these technology changes will increase stress, reduce job performance, contribute to maladaptive coping strategies, lower employee retention, or change morale in the workplace. Understanding these impacts to inform approaches for mitigating the health and performance risks associated with new technologies is crucial for ensuring the 911 system fulfills its mission of providing optimal emergency response to the public. Our project is an observational, prospective cohort study framed by the first new technology that will be implemented: text-to-911 calling. Emergency center call takers will be recruited nationwide. Data will be collected by online surveys distributed at each center before text-to-911 implementation; within the first month of implementation; and 6 months after implementation. Primary outcome measures are stress as measured by the Calgary Symptoms of Stress Index, use of sick leave, job performance, and job satisfaction. Primary analyses will use mixed effects regression models and mixed effects logistic regression models to estimate the change in outcome variables associated with text-to-911 implementation. Multiple secondary analyses will examine effects of stress on absenteeism; associations between technology attitudes and stress; effects of implementation on attitudes towards technology; and mitigating effects of job demands, job satisfaction, attitudes towards workplace technology and workplace support on change in stress. Our public health dependence on this workforce for our security and safety makes it imperative that the impact of technological changes such as text-to-911 are researched so appropriate intervention efforts to can be developed. Failing to protect our 9-1-1 call takers from predictable health risks would be similar to knowingly exposing field emergency responders to a toxic situation without following OSHA required training and practice standards assuring their protection.

The impact of land use change and hydroclimatic variability on landscape connectivity dynamics across surface water networks at subcontinental scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulbure, M. G.; Bishop-Taylor, R.; Broich, M.

2017-12-01

Land use (LU) change and hydroclimatic variability affect spatiotemporal landscape connectivity dynamics, important for species movement and dispersal. Despite the fact that LU change can strongly influence dispersal potential over time, prior research has only focused on the impacts of dynamic changes in the distribution of potential habitats. We used 8 time-steps of historical LU together with a Landsat-derived time-series of surface water habitat dynamics (1986-2011) over the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), a region with extreme hydroclimatic variability, impacted by LU changes. To assess how changing LU and hydroclimatic variability affect landscape connectivity across time, we compared 4 scenarios, namely one where both climate and LU are dynamic over time, one where climate is kept steady (i.e. a median surface water extent layer), and two scenarios where LU is kept steady (i.e. resistance values associated with the most recent or the first LU layer). We used circuit theory to assign landscape features with `resistance' costs and graph theory network analysis, with surface water habitats as `nodes' connected by dispersal paths or `edges' Findings comparing a dry and an average season show high differences in number of nodes (14581 vs 21544) and resistance distances. The combined effect of LU change and landscape wetness was lower than expected, likely a function of the large, MDB-wide, aggregation scale. Spatially explicit analyses are expected to identify areas where the synergistic effect of LU change and landscape wetness greatly reduce or increase landscape connectivity, as well as areas where the two effects cancel each other out.

The interplay between neighbourhood characteristics: The health impact of changes in social cohesion, disorder and unsafety feelings.

PubMed

Ruijsbroek, Annemarie; Droomers, Mariël; Hardyns, Wim; Groenewegen, Peter P; Stronks, Karien

2016-05-01

This study examined how the health of Dutch residents in 2012 was influenced by changes in neighbourhood social cohesion, disorder, and unsafety feelings between 2009 and 2011. Multilevel regression analyses on repeated cross-sectional survey data included 43,635 respondents living in 2100 areas. Deteriorating social cohesion and unsafety feelings were negatively associated with general health, while improvement in social cohesion was associated with better general health of the population. When the interplay of neighbourhood features was considered, deteriorating neighbourhood safety appeared decisive for health, i.e. improving social cohesion did not mitigate the health effect of deteriorating neighbourhood safety. Our results show it is important to take concurrent interactions between neighbourhood features into account when examining their health impact. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the impact of immigration on labour market using spatial models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polonyankina, Tatiana

2017-07-01

This paper investigates the impact of immigration on employment and unemployment of a host country. The question to answer is: How does employment/unemployment in the host country change after an increase in number of immigrants? The analysis is taking into account only legal immigrants in recession period. The model is combining classical regression of cross-sectional data with spatial econometrics models where cross-section dependencies are captured by a spatial matrix. The intention is by using spatial models analyse the sensitivity of employment/unemployment rate on change in a share of immigration in a region. The used panel data are based on the Labour force survey and on available macro data in Eurostat for 3 European countries (Germany, Austria and Czech Republic) grouped into cells by NUTS regions in a recession period.

Structured models of infectious disease: inference with discrete data

PubMed Central

Metcalf, C.J.E.; Lessler, J.; Klepac, P.; Morice, A.; Grenfell, B.T.; Bjørnstad, O.N.

2014-01-01

The usage of structured population models can make substantial contributions to public health, particularly for infections where clinical outcomes vary over age. There are three theoretical challenges in implementing such analyses: i) developing an appropriate framework that models both demographic and epidemiological transitions; ii) parameterizing the framework, where parameters may be based on data ranging from the biological course of infection, basic patterns of human demography, specific characteristics of population growth, and details of vaccination regimes implemented; and iii) evaluating public health strategies in the face of changing human demography. We illustrate the general approach by developing a model of rubella in Costa Rica. The demographic profile of this infection is a crucial aspect of its public health impact, and we use a transient perturbation analysis to explore the impact of changing human demography on immunization strategies implemented. PMID:22178687

Genomic Evidence of Widespread Admixture from Polar Bears into Brown Bears during the Last Ice Age.

PubMed

Cahill, James A; Heintzman, Peter D; Harris, Kelley; Teasdale, Matthew D; Kapp, Joshua; Soares, Andre E R; Stirling, Ian; Bradley, Daniel; Edwards, Ceiridwen J; Graim, Kiley; Kisleika, Aliaksandr A; Malev, Alexander V; Monaghan, Nigel; Green, Richard E; Shapiro, Beth

2018-05-01

Recent genomic analyses have provided substantial evidence for past periods of gene flow from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) into Alaskan brown bears (Ursus arctos), with some analyses suggesting a link between climate change and genomic introgression. However, because it has mainly been possible to sample bears from the present day, the timing, frequency, and evolutionary significance of this admixture remains unknown. Here, we analyze genomic DNA from three additional and geographically distinct brown bear populations, including two that lived temporally close to the peak of the last ice age. We find evidence of admixture in all three populations, suggesting that admixture between these species has been common in their recent evolutionary history. In addition, analyses of ten fossil bears from the now-extinct Irish population indicate that admixture peaked during the last ice age, whereas brown bear and polar bear ranges overlapped. Following this peak, the proportion of polar bear ancestry in Irish brown bears declined rapidly until their extinction. Our results support a model in which ice age climate change created geographically widespread conditions conducive to admixture between polar bears and brown bears, as is again occurring today. We postulate that this model will be informative for many admixing species pairs impacted by climate change. Our results highlight the power of paleogenomics to reveal patterns of evolutionary change that are otherwise masked in contemporary data.

Climate Change in Colorado: Developing a Synthesis of the Science to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Averyt, K. B.; Deheza, V.; Udall, B.

2008-12-01

In 2007 Colorado's Governor Ritter issued a Colorado Climate Action Plan, in response to the risks associated with climate change and sets a goal to adapt to those climate changes "that cannot be avoided." The Western Water Assessment, a NOAA funded RISA program, was commissioned to do a synthesis of the science on climate change aimed at planners, decisionmakers, and policymakers in water in Colorado. Changes in Colorado's climate and implications for water resources are occurring in a global context. The objective of the report is to communicate the state of the science regarding the physical aspects of climate change that are important for evaluating impacts on Colorado's water resources, and to support state efforts to develop a water adaptation plan. However, the identification of specific climate change impacts on water resources is beyond the scope of this report. Water managers have a long history of adapting to changing circumstances, including changes in economies and land use, environmental concerns, and population growth. Climate change will further affect the decisions made about use of water. However, current water management practices may not be robust enough to cope with this climate change. This presentation reports on the process of developing the report and challenges we faced. We developed the report based on ongoing interactions with the water management community and discussions with them about their decision processes and needs. A second presentation (see Barsugli et al) presents the synthesis findings from the report. We followed the IPCC WG1 model of observations, attribution, and projections. However, many published studies and datasets include information about Colorado, there are few climate studies that focus only on the state. Consequently, many important scientific analyses for Colorado have not been done, and Colorado- specific information is often imbedded in or averaged with studies of the larger Western U.S. We used findings from peer-reviewed regional studies, and conducted new analyses derived from existing datasets and model projections, and took advantage of new regional analyses. In addition to the IPCC Fourth Assessment, we also took advantage of very new Climate Change Science Program Assessments. Many water managers, although often technically savvy engineers, hydrologists and other professionals, but are not trained as climate or atmospheric scientists, and seeks to complexity by using Fahrenheit units, minimizing use of or defining jargon terms, and re-plotting published figures/data for simplicity. The report is written at a less technical level than the IPCC reports, and some features are intended to raise the level of climate literacy of our audience about climate and how climate science is done. For example, the report includes a primer on climate models and theory that situates Colorado in the context of global climate change and describes how the unique features of the state -- such as the complex topography -- relate to interpreting and using climate change projections. This report responds to Colorado state agencies' and water management community needs to understanding of climate change and is an initial step in establishing Colorado's water-related adaptation needs. Another impact of this report is as an experiment in climate services for climate change information and exploring the challenges of communicating the information to diverse decisionmakers.

International collaboration and comparative research on ocean top predators under CLIOTOP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobday, Alistair J.; Arrizabalaga, Haritz; Evans, Karen; Scales, Kylie L.; Senina, Inna; Weng, Kevin C.

2017-06-01

Oceanic top predators have ecological, social and economic value of global significance. These wide-ranging marine species, which include sharks, tunas and billfishes, marine mammals, turtles and seabirds, are the focus of international research attention under the Climate Impacts on Oceanic Top Predators (CLIOTOP) science programme, one of the Integrated Marine Biosphere Research (IMBeR) projects. Over more than a decade, research conducted under CLIOTOP has involved scientists from more than 30 countries, with international collaboration increasing markedly over time, and comparative analyses resulting in new knowledge and understanding of oceanic top predators. This special issue presents 27 papers arising from the 3rd CLIOTOP symposium, held in San Sebastián, Spain in September 2015, spanning topics such as conservation biology, trophic ecology, fisheries science, climate change, and adaptive management. The maturation and synthesis of CLIOTOP's collaborative research is now resulting in real-world management applications and improving understanding of potential ecological and socio-economic impacts of climate change in oceanic systems. The ultimate CLIOTOP goal of preparing both climate-sensitive predator populations and the human societies dependent on them for the impending impacts of climate change is now within reach.

Predicting Effects of Water Regime Changes on Waterbirds: Insights from Staging Swans

PubMed Central

Nolet, Bart A.; Gyimesi, Abel; van Krimpen, Roderick R. D.; de Boer, Willem F.; Stillman, Richard A.

2016-01-01

Predicting the environmental impact of a proposed development is notoriously difficult, especially when future conditions fall outside the current range of conditions. Individual-based approaches have been developed and applied to predict the impact of environmental changes on wintering and staging coastal bird populations. How many birds make use of staging sites is mostly determined by food availability and accessibility, which in the case of many waterbirds in turn is affected by water level. Many water systems are regulated and water levels are maintained at target levels, set by management authorities. We used an individual-based modelling framework (MORPH) to analyse how different target water levels affect the number of migratory Bewick’s swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii staging at a shallow freshwater lake (Lauwersmeer, the Netherlands) in autumn. As an emerging property of the model, we found strong non-linear responses of swan usage to changes in water level, with a sudden drop in peak numbers as well as bird-days with a 0.20 m rise above the current target water level. Such strong non-linear responses are probably common and should be taken into account in environmental impact assessments. PMID:26862895

Predicting Effects of Water Regime Changes on Waterbirds: Insights from Staging Swans.

PubMed

Nolet, Bart A; Gyimesi, Abel; van Krimpen, Roderick R D; de Boer, Willem F; Stillman, Richard A

2016-01-01

Predicting the environmental impact of a proposed development is notoriously difficult, especially when future conditions fall outside the current range of conditions. Individual-based approaches have been developed and applied to predict the impact of environmental changes on wintering and staging coastal bird populations. How many birds make use of staging sites is mostly determined by food availability and accessibility, which in the case of many waterbirds in turn is affected by water level. Many water systems are regulated and water levels are maintained at target levels, set by management authorities. We used an individual-based modelling framework (MORPH) to analyse how different target water levels affect the number of migratory Bewick's swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii staging at a shallow freshwater lake (Lauwersmeer, the Netherlands) in autumn. As an emerging property of the model, we found strong non-linear responses of swan usage to changes in water level, with a sudden drop in peak numbers as well as bird-days with a 0.20 m rise above the current target water level. Such strong non-linear responses are probably common and should be taken into account in environmental impact assessments.

A Risk-Based Approach to Evaluating Wildlife Demographics for Management in a Changing Climate: A Case Study of the Lewis's Woodpecker

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Towler, Erin; Saab, Victoria A.; Sojda, Richard S.; Dickinson, Katherine; Bruyère, Cindy L.; Newlon, Karen R.

2012-12-01

Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a species' response to climate into conservation decisions. This is shown by taking advantage of species' response (i.e., impact) models that have been developed for a well-studied bird species of conservation concern. Specifically, we examine the current and potential impact of climate on nest survival of the Lewis's Woodpecker ( Melanerpes lewis) in two different habitats. To address climate uncertainty, climate scenarios are developed by manipulating historical weather observations to create ensembles (i.e., multiple sequences of daily weather) that reflect historical variability and potential climate change. These ensembles allow for a probabilistic evaluation of the risk posed to Lewis's Woodpecker nest survival and are used in two demographic analyses. First, the relative value of each habitat is compared in terms of nest survival, and second, the likelihood of exceeding a critical population threshold is examined. By embedding the analyses in a risk framework, we show how management choices can be made to be commensurate with a defined level of acceptable risk. The results can be used to inform habitat prioritization and are discussed in the context of an economic framework for evaluating trade-offs between management alternatives.

A risk-based approach to evaluating wildlife demographics for management in a changing climate: A case study of the Lewis's Woodpecker

USGS Publications Warehouse

Towler, Erin; Saab, Victoria A.; Sojda, Richard S.; Dickinson, Katherine; Bruyere, Cindy L.; Newlon, Karen R.

2012-01-01

Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a species' response to climate into conservation decisions. This is shown by taking advantage of species' response (i.e., impact) models that have been developed for a well-studied bird species of conservation concern. Specifically, we examine the current and potential impact of climate on nest survival of the Lewis's Woodpecker (Melanerpes lewis) in two different habitats. To address climate uncertainty, climate scenarios are developed by manipulating historical weather observations to create ensembles (i.e., multiple sequences of daily weather) that reflect historical variability and potential climate change. These ensembles allow for a probabilistic evaluation of the risk posed to Lewis's Woodpecker nest survival and are used in two demographic analyses. First, the relative value of each habitat is compared in terms of nest survival, and second, the likelihood of exceeding a critical population threshold is examined. By embedding the analyses in a risk framework, we show how management choices can be made to be commensurate with a defined level of acceptable risk. The results can be used to inform habitat prioritization and are discussed in the context of an economic framework for evaluating trade-offs between management alternatives.

Status and future transition of rapid urbanizing landscape in central Western Ghats - CA based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bharath, S..; Rajan, K. S.; Ramachandra, T. V.

2014-11-01

The land use changes in forested landscape are highly complex and dynamic, affected by the natural, socio-economic, cultural, political and other factors. The remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) techniques coupled with multi-criteria evaluation functions such as Markov-cellular automata (CA-Markov) model helps in analysing intensity, extent and future forecasting of human activities affecting the terrestrial biosphere. Karwar taluk of Central Western Ghats in Karnataka state, India has seen rapid transitions in its forest cover due to various anthropogenic activities, primarily driven by major industrial activities. A study based on Landsat and IRS derived data along with CA-Markov method has helped in characterizing the patterns and trends of land use changes over a period of 2004-2013, expected transitions was predicted for a set of scenarios through 2013-2022. The analysis reveals the loss of pristine forest cover from 75.51% to 67.36% (1973 to 2013) and increase in agriculture land as well as built-up area of 8.65% (2013), causing impact on local flora and fauna. The other factors driving these changes are the aggregated level of demand for land, local and regional effects of land use activities such as deforestation, improper practices in expansion of agriculture and infrastructure development, deteriorating natural resources availability. The spatio temporal models helped in visualizing on-going changes apart from prediction of likely changes. The CA-Markov based analysis provides us insights into the localized changes impacting these regions and can be useful in developing appropriate mitigation management approaches based on the modelled future impacts. This necessitates immediate measures for minimizing the future impacts.

Development of Climate Change Adaptation Platform using Spatial Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Oh, K. Y.; Lee, M. J.; Han, W. J.

2014-12-01

Climate change adaptation has attracted growing attention with the recent extreme weather conditions that affect people around the world. More and more countries, including the Republic of Korea, have begun to hatch adaptation plan to resolve these matters of great concern. They all, meanwhile, have mentioned that it should come first to integrate climate information in all analysed areas. That's because climate information is not independently made through one source; that is to say, the climate information is connected one another in a complicated way. That is the reason why we have to promote integrated climate change adaptation platform before setting up climate change adaptation plan. Therefore, the large-scaled project has been actively launched and worked on. To date, we researched 620 literatures and interviewed 51 government organizations. Based on the results of the researches and interviews, we obtained 2,725 impacts about vulnerability assessment information such as Monitoring and Forecasting, Health, Disaster, Agriculture, Forest, Water Management, Ecosystem, Ocean/Fisheries, Industry/Energy. Among 2,725 impacts, 995 impacts are made into a database until now. This database is made up 3 sub categories like Climate-Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive capacity, presented by IPCC. Based on the constructed database, vulnerability assessments were carried out in order to evaluate climate change capacity of local governments all over the country. These assessments were conducted by using web-based vulnerability assessment tool which was newly developed through this project. These results have shown that, metropolitan areas like Seoul, Pusan, Inchon, and so on have high risks more than twice than rural areas. Acknowledgements: The authors appreciate the support that this study has received from "Development of integrated model for climate change impact and vulnerability assessment and strengthening the framework for model implementation ", an initiative of the Korea Environmental & Industry Technology Institute .

Developing a climatological / hydrological baseline for climate change impact assessment in a remote mountain region - an example from Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salzmann, N.; Huggel, C.; Calanca, P.; Diaz, A.; Jonas, T.; Konzelmann, T.; Lagos, P.; Rohrer, M.; Silverio, W.; Zappa, M.

2009-04-01

Changes in the availability of fresh water caused by climatic changes will become a major issue in the coming years and decades. In this context, regions presently depending on water from retreating mountain glaciers are particularly vulnerable. In many parts of the Andes for example, people already suffer from the impacts of reduced glacier run off. Therefore, the development and implementation of adequate adaptation measures is an urgent need. To better understand the impact of climate change on water resources in the Andean region, a new research program (PACC - Programa de Adaptación al Cambio Climático en el Perú) between Peru and Switzerland has recently been launched by SDC (Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation). As a first step, a scientific baseline relative to climatology, hydrology, agriculture and natural disasters will be developed on a regional scale for the Departments of Cusco and Apurimac in close cooperation with partners from Universities and governmental institutions as well as NGOs in Peru. A reliable data baseline is a must for the development of adaptation measures that can effectively cope with the risks induced by climate change. The realization of this task in remote mountain regions, where observational data are generally sparse, however, is challenging. Temporal and spatial gaps must be filled using indirect methods such as re-analyses, remote sensing and interpolation techniques. For future scenarios, the use of climate model output along with statistical and dynamical downscaling is indicated. This contribution will present and discuss approaches and possible concepts to tackle the challenges in a Peruvian context. In addition, first experiences will be reported particularly on cross-disciplinary issues that naturally emerge from the integrative perspective needed in climate change impact assessments and the development of adaptation strategies.

Characterizing Impacts of Land Grabbing on Terrestrial Vegetation and Ecohydrologic change in Mozambique through Multiple-sensor Remote Sensing and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flores, A. N.; Lakshmi, V.; Al-Barakat, R.; Maksimowicz, M.

2017-12-01

Land grabbing, the acquisition of large areas of land by external entities, results from interactions of complex global economic, social, and political processes. These transactions are controversial because they can result in large-scale disruptions to historical land uses, including increased intensity of agricultural practices and significant conversions in land cover. These large-scale disruptions have the potential to impact surface water and energy balance because vegetation controls the partitioning of incoming energy into latent and sensible heat fluxes and precipitation into runoff and infiltration. Because large-scale land acquisitions can impact local ecosystem services, it is important to document changes in terrestrial vegetation associated with these acquisitions to support the assessment of associated impacts on regional surface water and energy balance, spatiotemporal scales of those changes, and interactions and feedbacks with other processes, particularly in the atmosphere. We use remote sensing data from multiple satellite platforms to diagnose and characterize changes in terrestrial vegetation and ecohydrology in Mozambique during periods that bracket periods associated with significant. The Advanced very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor provides long-term continuous data that can document historical seasonal cycles of vegetation greenness. These data are augmented with analyses from Landsat multispectral data, which provides significantly higher spatial resolution. Here we quantify spatiotemporal changes in vegetation are associated with periods of significant land acquisitions in Mozambique. This analysis complements a suite of land-atmosphere modeling experiments designed to deduce potential changes in land surface water and energy budgets associated with these acquisitions. This work advance understanding of how telecouplings between global economic and political forcings and regional hydrology and climate.

Wind and rain are the primary climate factors driving changing phenology of an aerial insectivore.

PubMed

Irons, Rachel D; Harding Scurr, April; Rose, Alexandra P; Hagelin, Julie C; Blake, Tricia; Doak, Daniel F

2017-04-26

While the ecological effects of climate change have been widely observed, most efforts to document these impacts in terrestrial systems have concentrated on the impacts of temperature. We used tree swallow ( Tachycineta bicolor ) nest observations from two widely separated sites in central Alaska to examine the aspects of climate affecting breeding phenology at the northern extent of this species' range. We found that two measures of breeding phenology, annual lay and hatch dates, are more strongly predicted by windiness and precipitation than by temperature. At our longest-monitored site, breeding phenology has advanced at nearly twice the rate seen in more southern populations, and these changes correspond to long-term declines in windiness. Overall, adverse spring climate conditions known to negatively impact foraging success of swallows (wet, windy weather) appear to influence breeding phenology more than variation in temperature. Separate analyses show that short windy periods significantly delay initiation of individual clutches within years. While past reviews have emphasized that increasing variability in climate conditions may create physiological and ecological challenges for natural populations, we find that long-term reductions in inclement weather corresponded to earlier reproduction in one of our study populations. To better predict climate change impacts, ecologists need to more carefully test effects of multiple climate variables, including some, like windiness, that may be of paramount importance to some species, but have rarely been considered as strong drivers of ecological responses to climate alteration. © 2017 The Author(s).

Wind and rain are the primary climate factors driving changing phenology of an aerial insectivore

PubMed Central

Irons, Rachel D.; Harding Scurr, April; Rose, Alexandra P.; Hagelin, Julie C.; Blake, Tricia

2017-01-01

While the ecological effects of climate change have been widely observed, most efforts to document these impacts in terrestrial systems have concentrated on the impacts of temperature. We used tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) nest observations from two widely separated sites in central Alaska to examine the aspects of climate affecting breeding phenology at the northern extent of this species' range. We found that two measures of breeding phenology, annual lay and hatch dates, are more strongly predicted by windiness and precipitation than by temperature. At our longest-monitored site, breeding phenology has advanced at nearly twice the rate seen in more southern populations, and these changes correspond to long-term declines in windiness. Overall, adverse spring climate conditions known to negatively impact foraging success of swallows (wet, windy weather) appear to influence breeding phenology more than variation in temperature. Separate analyses show that short windy periods significantly delay initiation of individual clutches within years. While past reviews have emphasized that increasing variability in climate conditions may create physiological and ecological challenges for natural populations, we find that long-term reductions in inclement weather corresponded to earlier reproduction in one of our study populations. To better predict climate change impacts, ecologists need to more carefully test effects of multiple climate variables, including some, like windiness, that may be of paramount importance to some species, but have rarely been considered as strong drivers of ecological responses to climate alteration. PMID:28446701

Climate change risk analysis framework (CCRAF) a probabilistic tool for analyzing climate change uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legget, J.; Pepper, W.; Sankovski, A.; Smith, J.; Tol, R.; Wigley, T.

2003-04-01

Potential risks of human-induced climate change are subject to a three-fold uncertainty associated with: the extent of future anthropogenic and natural GHG emissions; global and regional climatic responses to emissions; and impacts of climatic changes on economies and the biosphere. Long-term analyses are also subject to uncertainty regarding how humans will respond to actual or perceived changes, through adaptation or mitigation efforts. Explicitly addressing these uncertainties is a high priority in the scientific and policy communities Probabilistic modeling is gaining momentum as a technique to quantify uncertainties explicitly and use decision analysis techniques that take advantage of improved risk information. The Climate Change Risk Assessment Framework (CCRAF) presented here a new integrative tool that combines the probabilistic approaches developed in population, energy and economic sciences with empirical data and probabilistic results of climate and impact models. The main CCRAF objective is to assess global climate change as a risk management challenge and to provide insights regarding robust policies that address the risks, by mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and by adapting to climate change consequences. The CCRAF endogenously simulates to 2100 or beyond annual region-specific changes in population; GDP; primary (by fuel) and final energy (by type) use; a wide set of associated GHG emissions; GHG concentrations; global temperature change and sea level rise; economic, health, and biospheric impacts; costs of mitigation and adaptation measures and residual costs or benefits of climate change. Atmospheric and climate components of CCRAF are formulated based on the latest version of Wigley's and Raper's MAGICC model and impacts are simulated based on a modified version of Tol's FUND model. The CCRAF is based on series of log-linear equations with deterministic and random components and is implemented using a Monte-Carlo method with up to 5000 variants per set of fixed input parameters. The shape and coefficients of CCRAF equations are derived from regression analyses of historic data and expert assessments. There are two types of random components in CCRAF - one reflects a year-to-year fluctuations around the expected value of a given variable (e.g., standard error of the annual GDP growth) and another is fixed within each CCRAF variant and represents some essential constants within a "world" represented by that variant (e.g., the value of climate sensitivity). Both types of random components are drawn from pre-defined probability distributions functions developed based on historic data or expert assessments. Preliminary CCRAF results emphasize the relative importance of uncertainties associated with the conversion of GHG and particulate emissions into radiative forcing and quantifying climate change effects at the regional level. A separates analysis involves an "adaptive decision-making", which optimizes the expected future policy effects given the estimated probabilistic uncertainties. As uncertainty for some variables evolve over the time steps, the decisions also adapt. This modeling approach is feasible only with explicit modeling of uncertainties.

Downscaling Global Land Cover Projections from an Integrated Assessment Model for Use in Regional Analyses: Results and Evaluation for the US from 2005 to 2095

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

West, Tristram O.; Le Page, Yannick LB; Huang, Maoyi

2014-06-05

Projections of land cover change generated from Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and other economic-based models can be applied for analyses of environmental impacts at subregional and landscape scales. For those IAM and economic models that project land use at the sub-continental or regional scale, these projections must be downscaled and spatially distributed prior to use in climate or ecosystem models. Downscaling efforts to date have been conducted at the national extent with relatively high spatial resolution (30m) and at the global extent with relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.5 degree).

Bayesian Model Averaging with Change Points to Assess the Impact of Vaccination and Public Health Interventions

PubMed Central

Warren, Joshua L.; Schuck-Paim, Cynthia; Lustig, Roger; Lewnard, Joseph A.; Fuentes, Rodrigo; Bruhn, Christian A. W.; Taylor, Robert J.; Simonsen, Lone; Weinberger, Daniel M.

2017-01-01

Background: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) prevent invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia. However, some low-and middle-income countries have yet to introduce PCV into their immunization programs due, in part, to lack of certainty about the potential impact. Assessing PCV benefits is challenging because specific data on pneumococcal disease are often lacking, and it can be difficult to separate the effects of factors other than the vaccine that could also affect pneumococcal disease rates. Methods: We assess PCV impact by combining Bayesian model averaging with change-point models to estimate the timing and magnitude of vaccine-associated changes, while controlling for seasonality and other covariates. We applied our approach to monthly time series of age-stratified hospitalizations related to pneumococcal infection in children younger 5 years of age in the United States, Brazil, and Chile. Results: Our method accurately detected changes in data in which we knew true and noteworthy changes occurred, i.e., in simulated data and for invasive pneumococcal disease. Moreover, 24 months after the vaccine introduction, we detected reductions of 14%, 9%, and 9% in the United States, Brazil, and Chile, respectively, in all-cause pneumonia (ACP) hospitalizations for age group 0 to <1 years of age. Conclusions: Our approach provides a flexible and sensitive method to detect changes in disease incidence that occur after the introduction of a vaccine or other intervention, while avoiding biases that exist in current approaches to time-trend analyses. PMID:28767518

Synergistic Ecoclimate Teleconnections from Forest Loss in Different Regions Structure Global Ecological Responses.

PubMed

Garcia, Elizabeth S; Swann, Abigail L S; Villegas, Juan C; Breshears, David D; Law, Darin J; Saleska, Scott R; Stark, Scott C

2016-01-01

Forest loss in hotspots around the world impacts not only local climate where loss occurs, but also influences climate and vegetation in remote parts of the globe through ecoclimate teleconnections. The magnitude and mechanism of remote impacts likely depends on the location and distribution of forest loss hotspots, but the nature of these dependencies has not been investigated. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the distribution of ecologically-relevant climate changes resulting from forest loss in two hotspot regions: western North America (wNA), which is experiencing accelerated dieoff, and the Amazon basin, which is subject to high rates of deforestation. The remote climatic and ecological net effects of simultaneous forest loss in both regions differed from the combined effects of loss from the two regions simulated separately, as evident in three impacted areas. Eastern South American Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) increased due to changes in seasonal rainfall associated with Amazon forest loss and changes in temperature related to wNA forest loss. Eurasia's GPP declined with wNA forest loss due to cooling temperatures increasing soil ice volume. Southeastern North American productivity increased with simultaneous forest loss, but declined with only wNA forest loss due to changes in VPD. Our results illustrate the need for a new generation of local-to-global scale analyses to identify potential ecoclimate teleconnections, their underlying mechanisms, and most importantly, their synergistic interactions, to predict the responses to increasing forest loss under future land use change and climate change.

The efficacy of two adolescent substance abuse treatments and the impact of comorbid depression: results of a small randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Santisteban, Daniel A; Mena, Maite P; Muir, Joan; McCabe, Brian E; Abalo, Clara; Cummings, Amanda M

2015-03-01

The purpose of this randomized trial was to investigate the efficacy of 2 behavioral treatments focusing on different change mechanisms in ameliorating a borderline personality disorder constellation of behaviors and substance use in adolescents referred by juvenile diversion programs. Forty adolescents 14-17 years of age and meeting Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed.) criteria for borderline personality disorder and substance use disorders were randomized to integrative borderline personality disorder-oriented adolescent family therapy (I-BAFT) or individual drug counseling. This design allowed a comparison of 2 manualized interventions, 1 family based and 1 individually oriented. Profiles of clinical change were used to detect impact and estimate treatment effect sizes. Primary analyses showed that both interventions had a clinically significant impact on borderline personality disorder behaviors 12 months after baseline but with no differential treatment effects. The impact on substance use was more complex. Subgroup analyses revealed that adolescents with depression had significantly more severe profiles of borderline personality disorder and substance use. These youths were the only group to show reductions in substance use, but they only did so if they received the I-BAFT intervention. Study data also documented the high dosage of intensive residential treatment needed by this population. Results highlight the intensive treatment needs of juvenile justice-involved youths with co-occurring substance use and borderline personality disorder including depression, the hybrid outpatient and residential treatment often required by this population, and the promise of a family-oriented approach, particularly for youths with severe symptoms and co-occurring depression. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

The Role of Demand Response in Reducing Water-Related Power Plant Vulnerabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macknick, J.; Brinkman, G.; Zhou, E.; O'Connell, M.; Newmark, R. L.; Miara, A.; Cohen, S. M.

2015-12-01

The electric sector depends on readily available water supplies for reliable and efficient operation. Elevated water temperatures or low water levels can trigger regulatory or plant-level decisions to curtail power generation, which can affect system cost and reliability. In the past decade, dozens of power plants in the U.S. have curtailed generation due to water temperatures and water shortages. Curtailments occur during the summer, when temperatures are highest and there is greatest demand for electricity. Climate change could alter the availability and temperature of water resources, exacerbating these issues. Constructing alternative cooling systems to address vulnerabilities can be capital intensive and can also affect power plant efficiencies. Demand response programs are being implemented by electric system planners and operators to reduce and shift electricity demands from peak usage periods to other times of the day. Demand response programs can also play a role in reducing water-related power sector vulnerabilities during summer months. Traditionally, production cost modeling and demand response analyses do not include water resources. In this effort, we integrate an electricity production cost modeling framework with water-related impacts on power plants in a test system to evaluate the impacts of demand response measures on power system costs and reliability. Specifically, we i) quantify the cost and reliability implications of incorporating water resources into production cost modeling, ii) evaluate the impacts of demand response measures on reducing system costs and vulnerabilities, and iii) consider sensitivity analyses with cooling systems to highlight a range of potential benefits of demand response measures. Impacts from climate change on power plant performance and water resources are discussed. Results provide key insights to policymakers and practitioners for reducing water-related power plant vulnerabilities via lower cost methods.

Climate change impacts on hydropower in the Swiss and Italian Alps.

PubMed

Gaudard, Ludovic; Romerio, Franco; Dalla Valle, Francesco; Gorret, Roberta; Maran, Stefano; Ravazzani, Giovanni; Stoffel, Markus; Volonterio, Michela

2014-09-15

This paper provides a synthesis and comparison of methodologies and results obtained in several studies devoted to the impact of climate change on hydropower. By putting into perspective various case studies, we provide a broader context and improved understanding of climate changes on energy production. We also underline the strengths and weaknesses of the approaches used as far as technical, physical and economical aspects are concerned. Although the catchments under investigation are located close to each other in geographic terms (Swiss and Italian Alps), they represent a wide variety of situations which may be affected by differing evolutions for instance in terms of annual runoff. In this study, we also differentiate between run-of-river, storage and pumping-storage power plants. By integrating and comparing various analyses carried out in the framework of the EU-FP7 ACQWA project, this paper discusses the complexity as well as current and future issues of hydropower management in the entire Alpine region. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Role of Neurotrophins in Major Depressive Disorder.

PubMed

Jiang, Cheng; Salton, Stephen R

2013-03-01

Neurotrophins and other growth factors have been advanced as critical modulators of depressive behavior. Support for this model is based on analyses of knockout and transgenic mouse models, human genetic studies, and screens for gene products that are regulated by depressive behavior and/or antidepressants. Even subtle alteration in the regulated secretion of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), for example, due to a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-encoded Val-Met substitution in proBDNF that affects processing and sorting, impacts behavior and cognition. Alterations in growth factor expression result in changes in neurogenesis as well as structural changes in neuronal cytoarchitecture, including effects on dendritic length and spine density, in the hippocampus, nucleus accumbens, and prefrontal cortex. These changes have the potential to impact the plasticity and stability of synapses in the CNS, and the complex brain circuitry that regulates behavior. Here we review the role that neurotrophins play in the modulation of depressive behavior, and the downstream signaling targets they regulate that potentially mediate these behavioral pro-depressant and antidepressant effects.

The Role of Neurotrophins in Major Depressive Disorder

PubMed Central

Jiang, Cheng; Salton, Stephen R.

2013-01-01

Neurotrophins and other growth factors have been advanced as critical modulators of depressive behavior. Support for this model is based on analyses of knockout and transgenic mouse models, human genetic studies, and screens for gene products that are regulated by depressive behavior and/or antidepressants. Even subtle alteration in the regulated secretion of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), for example, due to a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-encoded Val-Met substitution in proBDNF that affects processing and sorting, impacts behavior and cognition. Alterations in growth factor expression result in changes in neurogenesis as well as structural changes in neuronal cytoarchitecture, including effects on dendritic length and spine density, in the hippocampus, nucleus accumbens, and prefrontal cortex. These changes have the potential to impact the plasticity and stability of synapses in the CNS, and the complex brain circuitry that regulates behavior. Here we review the role that neurotrophins play in the modulation of depressive behavior, and the downstream signaling targets they regulate that potentially mediate these behavioral pro-depressant and antidepressant effects. PMID:23691270

The Economic Impact of Biosimilars on Chronic Immune-Mediated Inflammatory Diseases.

PubMed

Pentek, Marta; Zrubka, Zsombor; Gulacsi, Laszlo

2017-01-01

Biological drugs represent highly effective but costly treatments for chronic immunemediated inflammatory diseases posing substantial burden on health care budgets. Introduction of biosimilars since 2013 has brought forward the potential of market competition, and as a societal benefit, the hope of increased access at a lower cost. We aim to provide a descriptive review on economic aspects and market changes related to the introduction of biosimilar drugs. Our focus is on chronic immune-mediated inflammatory conditions in rheumatology, gastroenterology and dermatology. Based on available literature data, we discuss the determinants of access to biological treatment, summarize the available health economic evidences with special focus on cost-utility and budget impact analyses. Market penetration of biosimilars and their overall impact on biological markets are analyzed. Biosimilar markets are country specific due to differences in the regulatory and reimbursement systems. Cost-utility analyses suggest, that given the lower price of biosimilars, formerly established biological treatment sequence practices and the eligibility criteria for biological treatment deserve reconsideration. Budget impact analyses forecasted significant budget savings in various diagnoses and countries, providing opportunity for the treatment of more patients. Biosimilars may contribute to better patient-access and provide savings to governments. To increase their acceptability, further clinical evidences and real world experiences are needed, as well as education of physicians and patients. The high biosimilar penetration rates in Norway, Denmark and Poland suggest that policies which support interchanging from the reference product may be important drivers of biosimilar uptake. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Impacts of Agricultural Practices and Individual Life Characteristics on Ecosystem Services: A Case Study on Family Farmers in the Context of an Amazonian Pioneer Front.

PubMed

Solen, Le Clec'h; Nicolas, Jégou; de Sartre Xavier, Arnauld; Thibaud, Decaens; Simon, Dufour; Michel, Grimaldi; Johan, Oszwald

2018-05-01

In tropical forests farmers are among the most important agents of deforestation. At the interface between societies and their environment, ecosystem services (ES) is an integrated working framework through which natural and anthropogenic dimensions can be addressed. Here, we aimed to understand to what extent farmers impact ES availability. Based on case studies in three locations in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest, we performed statistical analyses at 135 sampling points and 110 farms to link socioeconomic and ES data, both derived from field work. The socioeconomic data characterized agricultural production, sociological characteristics, and quality of life. ES data were obtained from statistical analyses that yielded a multiple ES indicator for each sampling point and farm. Our results produced three main findings: first, the establishment of ES associations is due more to agricultural production characteristics than to sociological and quality-of-life factors. Second, the impact of agricultural production on ES availability depends on the level of total incomes. An increase in incomes causes a decrease in the forest cover that provides many ES and an increase in other areas that provide fewer ES. Finally, our analyses show a very strong site effect that probably expresses the heterogeneity of the biophysical contexts, but also the importance for ES availability of the historical depth of deforestation and/or the role of specific public policies. Finding ways of producing an alternative impact on ES availability and establishing specific ES associations will therefore depend more on changes in the global political context than in individual practices.

Europe. An analysis of changes in the consumption of alcoholic beverages: the interaction among consumption, related harms, contextual factors and alcoholic beverage control policies.

PubMed

Allamani, Allaman; Pepe, Pasquale; Baccini, Michela; Massini, Giulia; Voller, Fabio

2014-10-01

This AMPHORA study's aim was to investigate selected factors potentially affecting changes in consumption of alcoholic beverages in 12 European countries during the 1960s-2008 (an average increase in beer, decreases in wine and spirits, total alcohol drinking decrease). Both time series and artificial neural networks-based analyses were used. Results indicated that selected socio-demographic and economic factors showed an overall major impact on consumption changes; particularly urbanization, increased income, and older mothers' age at their childbirths were significantly associated with consumption increase or decrease, depending on the country. Alcoholic beverage control policies showed an overall minor impact on consumption changes: among them, permissive availability measures were significantly associated with consumption increases, while drinking and driving limits and availability restrictions were correlated with consumption decreases, and alcohol taxation and prices of the alcoholic beverages were not significantly correlated with consumption. Population ageing, older mother's age at childbirths, increased income and increases in female employment, as well as drink driving limitations were associated with the decrease of transport mortality. Study's limitations are noted.

Application of synthetic scenarios to address water resource concerns: A management-guided case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

McAfee, Stephanie A.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; McCabe, Gregory

2017-01-01

Water managers are increasingly interested in better understanding and planning for projected resource impacts from climate change. In this management-guided study, we use a very large suite of synthetic climate scenarios in a statistical modeling framework to simultaneously evaluate how (1) average temperature and precipitation changes, (2) initial basin conditions, and (3) temporal characteristics of the input climate data influence water-year flow in the Upper Colorado River. The results here suggest that existing studies may underestimate the degree of uncertainty in future streamflow, particularly under moderate temperature and precipitation changes. However, we also find that the relative severity of future flow projections within a given climate scenario can be estimated with simple metrics that characterize the input climate data and basin conditions. These results suggest that simple testing, like the analyses presented in this paper, may be helpful in understanding differences between existing studies or in identifying specific conditions for physically based mechanistic modeling. Both options could reduce overall cost and improve the efficiency of conducting climate change impacts studies.

Neurodegenerative disease and cognitive retest learning.

PubMed

Wilson, Robert S; Capuano, Ana W; Yu, Lei; Yang, Jingyun; Kim, Namhee; Leurgans, Sue E; Lamar, Melissa; Schneider, Julie A; Bennett, David A; Boyle, Patricia A

2018-06-01

Retest learning impacts estimates of cognitive aging, but its bases are uncertain. Here, we test the hypothesis that dementia-related neurodegeneration impairs retest learning. Older persons without cognitive impairment at enrollment (n = 567) had annual cognitive testing for a mean of 11 years, died, and had a neuropathologic examination to quantify 5 neurodegenerative pathologies. Change point models were used to divide cognitive trajectories into an early retest sensitive component and a later component less sensitive to retest. Performance on a global cognitive measure (baseline mean = 0.227, standard deviation = 0.382) increased an estimated mean of 0.142-unit per year for a mean of 1.5 years and declined an estimated mean of 0.123-unit per year thereafter. No pathologic marker was related to cognitive change before the change point; each was related to cognitive decline after the change point. Results were comparable in analyses that used specific cognitive outcomes, included 220 individuals with mild cognitive impairment at enrollment, or allowed a longer retest learning period. The findings suggest that neurodegeneration does not impact cognitive retest learning. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Recognizing and exploring the right questions with climate data: An example of better understanding ENSO in climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ammann, C. M.; Brown, B.; Kalb, C. P.; Bullock, R.; Buja, L.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.; Halley-Gotway, J.; Kaatz, L.; Yates, D. N.

2017-12-01

Coordinated, multi-model climate change projection archives have already led to a flourishing of new climate impact applications. Collections and online tools for the computation of derived indicators have attracted many non-specialist users and decision-makers and facilitated for them the exploration of potential future weather and climate changes on their systems. Guided by a set of standardized steps and analyses, many can now use model output and determine basic model-based changes. But because each application and decision-context is different, the question remains if such a small collection of standardized tools can faithfully and comprehensively represent the critical physical context of change? We use the example of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation, the largest and most broadly recognized mode of variability in the climate system, to explore the difference in impact contexts between a quasi-blind, protocol-bound and a flexible, scientifically guided use of climate information. More use oriented diagnostics of the model-data as well as different strategies for getting data into decision environments are explored.

Natural and human-induced variability in the composition of fish assemblages in the Northwestern Cuban shelf.

PubMed

González-Sansón, Gaspar; Aguilar, Consuelo; Hernández, Ivet; Cabrera, Yureidy; Suarez-Montes, Noelis; Bretos, Fernando; Guggenheim, David

2009-09-01

The main goal of the study was to obtain field data to build a baseline of fish assemblage composition that can be used comparatively for future analyses of the impact of human actions in the region. A basic network of 68 sampling stations was defined for the entire region (4,050 km2). Fish assemblage species and size composition was estimated using visual census methods at three different spatial scales: a) entire region, b) inside the main reef area and c) along a human impact coastal gradient. Multivariate numerical analyses revealed habitat type as the main factor inducing spatial variability of fish community composition, while the level of human impact appears to play the main role in fish assemblage composition changes along the coast. A trend of decreasing fish size toward the east supports the theory of more severe human impact due to overfishing and higher urban pollution in that direction. This is the first detailed study along the northwest coast of Cuba that focuses on fish community structure and the natural and human-induced variations at different spatial scales for the entire NW shelf. This research also provides input for a more comprehensive understanding of coastal marine fish communities' status in the Gulf of Mexico basin.

Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tieszen, Larry L.

2007-01-01

The Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change project at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) seeks to integrate remote sensing and simulation models to better understand and seek solutions to national and global issues. Modeling processes related to population impacts, natural resource management, climate change, invasive species, land use changes, energy development, and climate mitigation all pose significant scientific opportunities. The project activities use remotely sensed data to support spatial monitoring, provide sensitivity analyses across landscapes and large regions, and make the data and results available on the Internet with data access and distribution, decision support systems, and on-line modeling. Applications support sustainable natural resource use, carbon cycle science, biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and robust simulation modeling approaches that evaluate ecosystem and landscape dynamics.

Ancient DNA reveals Holocene loss of genetic diversity in a South American rodent

PubMed Central

Chan, Yvonne L; Lacey, Eileen A; Pearson, Oliver P; Hadly, Elizabeth A

2005-01-01

Understanding how animal populations have evolved in response to palaeoenvironmental conditions is essential for predicting the impact of future environmental change on current biodiversity. Analyses of ancient DNA provide a unique opportunity to track population responses to prehistoric environments. We explored the effects of palaeoenvironmental change on the colonial tuco-tuco (Ctenomys sociabilis), a highly endemic species of Patagonian rodent that is currently listed as threatened by the IUCN. By combining surveys of modern genetic variation from throughout this species' current geographic range with analyses of DNA samples from fossil material dating back to 10 000 ybp, we demonstrate a striking decline in genetic diversity that is concordant with environmental events in the study region. Our results highlight the importance of non-anthropogenic factors in loss of diversity, including reductions in smaller mammals such as rodents. PMID:17148223

Assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin.

PubMed

Abah, Roland Clement; Petja, Brilliant Mareme

2016-12-01

Agriculture in the Lower Benue River Basin faces several challenges which threaten the future of agricultural development. This study was an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin. Through analysis of physical and socioeconomic parameters, the study adapted an impact assessment model to rank potential impacts on agricultural development in the study area. Rainfall intensity seemed to be increasing with a gradual reduction in the number of rainy days. The average discharge at Makurdi hydrological station was 3468.24 cubic metres per second (m 3  s -1 ), and the highest peak flow discharge was 16,400 m 3  s -1 . The daily maximum temperature and annual temperature averages for the study area are gradually rising leading to increased heat stress. Physical and chemical analyses showed that the soils are moderately fertile but require effective application of inorganic and organic fertilisers. The main occupational activities in the study area are agricultural based. The identified potential impacts of climate change on agriculture were categorised under atmospheric carbon dioxides and oxides, rainfall intensity, frequency of floods and droughts, temperature intensity and variation, heat stress, surface water trends, and soil quality and fertility. The identified potential impacts related to population dynamics on agriculture were categorised under population growth, rural-urban migration, household income and infectious diseases and HIV and AIDS. Community-level mitigation strategies were proffered. Policy makers are advised to promote irrigation farming, support farmers with farm inputs and credit facilities and establish active agricultural extension services to support the sustainable development of agriculture.

Enhanced early warning system impact on nursing practice: A phenomenological study.

PubMed

Burns, Kathleen A; Reber, Tracey; Theodore, Karen; Welch, Brenda; Roy, Debra; Siedlecki, Sandra L

2018-05-01

To determine how an enhanced early warning system has an impact on nursing practice. Early warning systems score physiologic measures and alert nurses to subtle changes in patient condition. Critics of early warning systems have expressed concern that nurses would rely on a score rather than assessment skills and critical thinking to determine the need for intervention. Enhancing early warning systems with innovative technology is still in its infancy, so the impact of an enhanced early warning system on nursing behaviours or practice has not yet been studied. Phenomenological design. Scripted, semistructured interviews were conducted in September 2015 with 25 medical/surgical nurses who used the enhanced early warning system. Data were analysed using thematic analysis techniques (coding and bracketing). Emerging themes were examined for relationships and a model describing the enhanced early warning system experience was developed. Nurses identified awareness leading to investigation and ease of prioritization as the enhanced early warning system's most important impact on their nursing practice. There was also an impact on organizational culture, with nurses reporting improved communication, increased collaboration, increased accountability and proactive responses to early changes in patient condition. Rather than hinder critical thinking, as many early warning systems' critics claim, nurses in this study found that the enhanced early warning system increased their awareness of changes in a patient's condition, resulting in earlier response and reassessment times. It also had an impact on the organization by improving communication and collaboration and supporting a culture of proactive rather than reactive response to early signs of deterioration. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Recent trends of groundwater temperatures in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benz, Susanne A.; Bayer, Peter; Winkler, Gerfried; Blum, Philipp

2018-06-01

Climate change is one of if not the most pressing challenge modern society faces. Increasing temperatures are observed all over the planet and the impact of climate change on the hydrogeological cycle has long been shown. However, so far we have insufficient knowledge on the influence of atmospheric warming on shallow groundwater temperatures. While some studies analyse the implication climate change has for selected wells, large-scale studies are so far lacking. Here we focus on the combined impact of climate change in the atmosphere and local hydrogeological conditions on groundwater temperatures in 227 wells in Austria, which have in part been observed since 1964. A linear analysis finds a temperature change of +0.7 ± 0.8 K in the years from 1994 to 2013. In the same timeframe surface air temperatures in Austria increased by 0.5 ± 0.3 K, displaying a much smaller variety. However, most of the extreme changes in groundwater temperatures can be linked to local hydrogeological conditions. Correlation between groundwater temperatures and nearby surface air temperatures was additionally analysed. They vary greatly, with correlation coefficients of -0.3 in central Linz to 0.8 outside of Graz. In contrast, the correlation of nationwide groundwater temperatures and surface air temperatures is high, with a correlation coefficient of 0.83. All of these findings indicate that while atmospheric climate change can be observed in nationwide groundwater temperatures, individual wells are often primarily dominated by local hydrogeological conditions. In addition to the linear temperature trend, a step-wise model was also applied that identifies climate regime shifts, which were observed globally in the late 70s, 80s, and 90s. Hinting again at the influence of local conditions, at most 22 % of all wells show these climate regime shifts. However, we were able to identify an additional shift in 2007, which was observed by 37 % of all wells. Overall, the step-wise representation provides a slightly more accurate picture of observed temperatures than the linear trend.

Impact of peer review on reports of randomised trials published in open peer review journals: retrospective before and after study

PubMed Central

Collins, Gary S; Boutron, Isabelle; Yu, Ly-Mee; Cook, Jonathan; Shanyinde, Milensu; Wharton, Rose; Shamseer, Larissa; Altman, Douglas G

2014-01-01

Objective To investigate the effectiveness of open peer review as a mechanism to improve the reporting of randomised trials published in biomedical journals. Design Retrospective before and after study. Setting BioMed Central series medical journals. Sample 93 primary reports of randomised trials published in BMC-series medical journals in 2012. Main outcome measures Changes to the reporting of methodological aspects of randomised trials in manuscripts after peer review, based on the CONSORT checklist, corresponding peer reviewer reports, the type of changes requested, and the extent to which authors adhered to these requests. Results Of the 93 trial reports, 38% (n=35) did not describe the method of random sequence generation, 54% (n=50) concealment of allocation sequence, 50% (n=46) whether the study was blinded, 34% (n=32) the sample size calculation, 35% (n=33) specification of primary and secondary outcomes, 55% (n=51) results for the primary outcome, and 90% (n=84) details of the trial protocol. The number of changes between manuscript versions was relatively small; most involved adding new information or altering existing information. Most changes requested by peer reviewers had a positive impact on the reporting of the final manuscript—for example, adding or clarifying randomisation and blinding (n=27), sample size (n=15), primary and secondary outcomes (n=16), results for primary or secondary outcomes (n=14), and toning down conclusions to reflect the results (n=27). Some changes requested by peer reviewers, however, had a negative impact, such as adding additional unplanned analyses (n=15). Conclusion Peer reviewers fail to detect important deficiencies in reporting of the methods and results of randomised trials. The number of these changes requested by peer reviewers was relatively small. Although most had a positive impact, some were inappropriate and could have a negative impact on reporting in the final publication. PMID:24986891

Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species–study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians. PMID:27703684

Splintering of tourism market: new appearing forms of cultural tourism as a consequence of changes in everyday lives.

PubMed

Jelincić, Daniela Angelina

2009-03-01

Within the concept of cultural tourism, this article defines relatively new concepts of creative and hobby tourism, which are detected as recent niche markets. Cultural tourism is a narrow specialized market, while creative and hobby tourism relate to even more specialized segments. Even these specialized forms of tourism have their market whose growth is very probable taking into account changes in everyday work as well as changes in the values of human activity in general. These changes reflect also the sector of tourism, which is obvious in the ever growing splintering of tourism market as well as of tourism forms. The article reviews theoretical concepts of cultural, creative and hobby tourism as to prepare the basis for applied tourist programmes. It looks into the history of cultural tourism as to see what changes occurred and brought it to life. Changes that have taken place in everyday lives of people and the impact of everyday free time activities on tourism are also analysed. Further splintering of the cultural tourism sector is noticed and cultural tourism sub-forms are detected by analysing some of the leading home style and creativity magazines. The article also proposes possible application of push/pull factors to creative/hobby tourism.

Land use change and conversion effects on ground water quality trends: An integration of land change modeler in GIS and a new Ground Water Quality Index developed by fuzzy multi-criteria group decision-making models.

PubMed

Shooshtarian, Mohammad Reza; Dehghani, Mansooreh; Margherita, Ferrante; Gea, Oliveri Conti; Mortezazadeh, Shima

2018-04-01

This study aggregated Land Change Modeller (LCM) as a useful model in GIS with an extended Groundwater Quality Index (GWQI) developed by fuzzy Multi-Criteria Group Decision-Making models to investigate the effect of land use change and conversion on groundwater quality being supplied for drinking. The model's performance was examined through an applied study in Shiraz, Iran, in a five year period (2011 to 2015). Four land use maps including urban, industrial, garden, and bare were employed in LCM model and the impact of change in area and their conversion to each other on GWQI changes was analysed. The correlation analysis indicated that increase in the urban land use area and conversion of bare to the residential/industrial land uses, had a relation with water quality decrease. Integration of LCM and GWQI can accurately and logically provide a numerical analysis of the possible impact of land use change and conversion, as one of the influencing factors, on the groundwater quality. Hence, the methodology could be used in urban development planning and management in macro level. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Biofuels that cause land-use change may have much larger non-GHG air quality emissions than fossil fuels.

PubMed

Tsao, C-C; Campbell, J E; Mena-Carrasco, M; Spak, S N; Carmichael, G R; Chen, Y

2012-10-02

Although biofuels present an opportunity for renewable energy production, significant land-use change resulting from biofuels may contribute to negative environmental, economic, and social impacts. Here we examined non-GHG air pollution impacts from both indirect and direct land-use change caused by the anticipated expansion of Brazilian biofuels production. We synthesized information on fuel loading, combustion completeness, and emission factors, and developed a spatially explicit approach with uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to estimate air pollution emissions. The land-use change emissions, ranging from 6.7 to 26.4 Tg PM(2.5), were dominated by deforestation burning practices associated with indirect land-use change. We also found Brazilian sugar cane ethanol and soybean biodiesel including direct and indirect land-use change effects have much larger life-cycle emissions than conventional fossil fuels for six regulated air pollutants. The emissions magnitude and uncertainty decrease with longer life-cycle integration periods. Results are conditional to the single LUC scenario employed here. After LUC uncertainty, the largest source of uncertainty in LUC emissions stems from the combustion completeness during deforestation. While current biofuels cropland burning policies in Brazil seek to reduce life-cycle emissions, these policies do not address the large emissions caused by indirect land-use change.

77 FR 51503 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Revisions to the Regulations for Impact Analyses...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-24

... Regulations for Impact Analyses of Critical Habitat AGENCIES: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior; National... pertaining to impact analyses conducted for designations of critical habitat under the Endangered Species Act... publication of a proposed rule to designate critical habitat. DATES: We will accept comments from all...

Analysis of institutional mechanisms that support community response to impacts of floods in the middle-zambezi river basin, Zimbabwe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhonda, P.; Mabiza, C.; Makurira, H.; Kujinga, K.; Nhapi, I.; Goldin, J.; Mashauri, D. A.

In recent years, the frequency of occurrence of floods has increased in Southern Africa. An increase in the frequency of extreme events is partly attributed to climate change. Floods negatively impact on livelihoods, especially those classified as poor, mainly by reducing livelihood options and also contributing to reduced crop yields. In response to these climatic events, governments within Southern Africa have formulated policies which try to mitigate the impacts of floods. Floods can be deadly, often occurring at short notice, lasting for short periods, and causing widespread damage to infrastructure. This study analysed institutional mechanisms in Mbire District of Zimbabwe which aim at mitigating the impact of floods. The study used both quantitative (i.e. questionnaires) and qualitative (i.e. key informant interviews, focus group discussions and observations) data collection methods. Secondary data such as policy and legislation documents and operational manuals of organisations that support communities affected by disasters were reviewed. Qualitative data was analysed using the thematic approach and social network analysis using UCINET 6. Quantitative data were analysed using SPSS 19.0. The study found out that there exists institutional framework that has been developed at the national and local level to support communities in the study area in response to the impacts of floods. This is supported by various pieces of legislation that are housed in different government departments. However, the existing institutional framework does not effectively strengthen disaster management mechanisms at the local level. Lack of financial resources and appropriate training and skills to undertake flood management activities reduce the capacity of communities and disaster management organisations to effectively mitigate the impacts of floods. The study also found that there are inadequate hydro-meteorological stations to enable accurate forecasts. Even in those cases where forecasts predicting extreme weather events have been made, communities have difficulties accessing and interpreting such forecasts due to inadequate communication systems. Such factors reduce the preparedness of communities to deal with extreme weather events.

Effect of differential forest management on land-use change (LUC) in a tropical hill forest of Malaysia.

PubMed

Masum, Kazi Mohammad; Mansor, Asyraf; Sah, Shahrul Anuar Mohd; Lim, Hwee San

2017-09-15

Forest ownership is considered as a vital aspect for sustainable management of forest and its associated biodiversity. The Global Forest Resources Assessment 2015 reported that privately owned forest area are increasing on a global scale, but deforestation was found very active in privately owned hill forest areas of Malaysia. Penang State was purposively chosen as it has been experiencing rapid and radical changes due to urban expansion over the last three decades. In this study, analyses of land-use changes were done by PCI Geomatica using Landsat images from 1991 to 2015, future trends of land-use change were assessed using EXCEL forecast function, and its impact on the surrounding environment were conducted by reviewing already published articles on changing environment of the study area. This study revealed an annual deforestation rate of 1.4% in Penang Island since 1991. Trend analysis forecasted a forest area smaller than the current forest reserves by the year 2039. Impact analysis revealed a rapid biodiversity loss with increasing landslides, mudflows, water pollution, flash flood, and health hazard. An immediate ban over hill-land development is crucial for overall environmental safety. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of three common calibration metrics on the diagnosis of climate change impacts on water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seiller, G.; Roy, R.; Anctil, F.

2017-04-01

Uncertainties associated to the evaluation of the impacts of climate change on water resources are broad, from multiple sources, and lead to diagnoses sometimes difficult to interpret. Quantification of these uncertainties is a key element to yield confidence in the analyses and to provide water managers with valuable information. This work specifically evaluates the influence of hydrological modeling calibration metrics on future water resources projections, on thirty-seven watersheds in the Province of Québec, Canada. Twelve lumped hydrologic models, representing a wide range of operational options, are calibrated with three common objective functions derived from the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. The hydrologic models are forced with climate simulations corresponding to two RCP, twenty-nine GCM from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) and two post-treatment techniques, leading to future projections in the 2041-2070 period. Results show that the diagnosis of the impacts of climate change on water resources are quite affected by the hydrologic models selection and calibration metrics. Indeed, for the four selected hydrological indicators, dedicated to water management, parameters from the three objective functions can provide different interpretations in terms of absolute and relative changes, as well as projected changes direction and climatic ensemble consensus. The GR4J model and a multimodel approach offer the best modeling options, based on calibration performance and robustness. Overall, these results illustrate the need to provide water managers with detailed information on relative changes analysis, but also absolute change values, especially for hydrological indicators acting as security policy thresholds.

Land cover and land use changes in the oil and gas regions of Northwestern Siberia under changing climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Qin; Epstein, Howard E.; Engstrom, Ryan; Shiklomanov, Nikolay; Strelestskiy, Dmitry

2015-12-01

Northwestern Siberia has been undergoing a range of land cover and land use changes associated with climate change, animal husbandry and development of mineral resources, particularly oil and gas. The changes caused by climate and oil/gas development Southeast of the city of Nadym were investigated using multi-temporal and multi-spatial remotely sensed images. Comparison between high spatial resolution imagery acquired in 1968 and 2006 indicates that 8.9% of the study area experienced an increase in vegetation cover (e.g. establishment of new saplings, extent of vegetated cover) in response to climate warming while 10.8% of the area showed a decrease in vegetation cover due to oil and gas development and logging activities. Waterlogging along linear structures and vehicle tracks was found near the oil and gas development site, while in natural landscapes the drying of thermokarst lakes is evident due to warming caused permafrost degradation. A Landsat time series dataset was used to document the spatial and temporal dynamics of these ecosystems in response to climate change and disturbances. The impacts of land use on surface vegetation, radiative, and hydrological properties were evaluated using Landsat image-derived biophysical indices. The spatial and temporal analyses suggest that the direct impacts associated with infrastructure development were mostly within 100 m distance from the disturbance source. While these impacts are rather localized they persist for decades despite partial recovery of vegetation after the initial disturbance and can have significant implications for changes in permafrost dynamics and surface energy budgets at landscape and regional scales.

Health-sector responses to address the impacts of climate change in Nepal.

PubMed

Dhimal, Meghnath; Dhimal, Mandira Lamichhane; Pote-Shrestha, Raja Ram; Groneberg, David A; Kuch, Ulrich

2017-09-01

Nepal is highly vulnerable to global climate change, despite its negligible emission of global greenhouse gases. The vulnerable climate-sensitive sectors identified in Nepal's National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) to Climate Change 2010 include agriculture, forestry, water, energy, public health, urbanization and infrastructure, and climate-induced disasters. In addition, analyses carried out as part of the NAPA process have indicated that the impacts of climate change in Nepal are not gender neutral. Vector-borne diseases, diarrhoeal diseases including cholera, malnutrition, cardiorespiratory diseases, psychological stress, and health effects and injuries related to extreme weather are major climate-sensitive health risks in the country. In recent years, research has been done in Nepal in order to understand the changing epidemiology of diseases and generate evidence for decision-making. Based on this evidence, the experience of programme managers, and regular surveillance data, the Government of Nepal has mainstreamed issues related to climate change in development plans, policies and programmes. In particular, the Government of Nepal has addressed climate-sensitive health risks. In addition to the NAPA report, several policy documents have been launched, including the Climate Change Policy 2011; the Nepal Health Sector Programme - Implementation Plan II (NHSP-IP 2) 2010-2015; the National Health Policy 2014; the National Health Sector Strategy 2015-2020 and its implementation plan (2016-2021); and the Health National Adaptation Plan (H-NAP): climate change and health strategy and action plan (2016-2020). However, the translation of these policies and plans of action into tangible action on the ground is still in its infancy in Nepal. Despite this, the health sector's response to addressing the impact of climate change in Nepal may be taken as a good example for other low- and middle-income countries.

The impact of changing nicotine replacement therapy licensing laws in the United Kingdom: findings from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey.

PubMed

Shahab, Lion; Cummings, K Michael; Hammond, David; Borland, Ron; West, Robert; McNeill, Ann

2009-08-01

To evaluate the impact of a new licence for some nicotine replacement therapy products (NRT) for cutting down to stop (CDTS) on changes in the pattern of NRT use. Quasi-experimental design comparing changes in NRT use across two waves of a population-based, replenished-panel, telephone survey conducted before and after the introduction of new licensing laws in the United Kingdom with changes in NRT use in three comparison countries (Australia, Canada and United States) without a licensing change. A total of 7386 and 7013 smokers and recent ex-smokers participating in the 2004 and/or 2006/7 survey. Data were collected on demographic and smoking characteristics as well as NRT use and access. In order to account for interdependence resulting from some participants being present in both waves, generalized estimation equations with an exchangeable correlation matrix were used to assess within-country changes and linear and logistic regressions to assess between-country differences in adjusted analyses. NRT use was more prevalent in the United Kingdom and increased across waves in all countries but no wave x country interaction was observed. There was no evidence that the licensing change increased the prevalence of CDTS or the use of NRT (irrespective of how it was accessed) for CDTS in the United Kingdom relative to comparison countries. There was also no evidence for a change in concurrent smoking and NRT use among smokers not attempting to stop in the United Kingdom relative to comparison countries. The addition of the CDTS licence for some NRT products in the United Kingdom appears to have had very limited, if any, impact on NRT use in the first year after the licence change.

Climate, Water and Renewable Energy in the Nordic Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snorrason, A.; Jonsdottir, J. F.

2004-05-01

Climate and Energy (CE) is a new Nordic research project with funding from Nordic Energy Research (NEFP) and the Nordic energy sector. The project has the objective of a comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate variability and change on Nordic renewable energy resources including hydropower, wind power, bio-fuels and solar energy. This will include assessment of the power production of the hydropower dominated Nordic energy system and its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change on both temporal and spatial scales; assessment of the impacts of extremes including floods, droughts, storms, seasonal patterns and variability. Within the CE project several thematic groups work on specific issues of climatic change and their impacts on renewable energy. A primary aim of the CE climate group is to supply a standard set of common scenarios of climate change in northern Europe and Greenland, based on recent global and regional climate change experiments. The snow and ice group has chosen glaciers from Greenland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden for an analysis of the response of glaciers to climate changes. Mass balance and dynamical changes, corresponding to the common scenario for climate changes, will be modelled and effects on glacier hydrology will be estimated. Preliminary work with dynamic modelling and climate scenarios shows a dramatic response of glacial runoff to increased temperature and precipitation. The statistical analysis group has reported on the status of time series analysis in the Nordic countries. The group has selected and quality controlled time series of stream flow to be included in the Nordic component of the database FRIEND. Also the group will collect information on time series for other variables and these series will be systematically analysed with respect to trend and other long-term changes. Preliminary work using multivariate analysis on stream flow and climate variables shows strong linkages with the long term atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic. The hydrological modelling group has already reported on "Climate change impacts on water resources in the Nordic countries - State of the art and discussion of principles". The group will compare different approaches of transferring the climate change signal into hydrological models and discuss uncertainties in models and climate scenarios. Furthermore, comprehensive assessment and mapping of impact of climate change will be produced for the whole Nordic region based on the scenarios from the CE-climate group.

Development of a new methodology for the creation of water temperature scenarios using frequency analysis tool.

PubMed

Val, Jonatan; Pino, María Rosa; Chinarro, David

2018-03-15

Thermal quality in river ecosystems is a fundamental property for the development of biological processes and many of the human activities linked to the aquatic environment. In the future, this property is going to be threatened due to global change impacts, and basin managers will need useful tools to evaluate these impacts. Currently, future projections in temperature modelling are based on the historical data for air and water temperatures, and the relationship with past temperature scenarios; however, this represents a problem when evaluating future scenarios with new thermal impacts. Here, we analysed the thermal impacts produced by several human activities, and linked them with the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanism from natural systems measured with frequency analysis tools (wavelet coherence). Once this relationship has been established we develop a new methodology for simulating different thermal impacts scenarios in order to project them into future. Finally, we validate this methodology using a site that changed its thermal quality during the studied period due to human impacts. Results showed a high correlation (r 2 =0.84) between the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanisms and the quantified human impacts, obtaining 3 thermal impact scenarios. Furthermore, the graphic representation of these thermal scenarios with its wavelet coherence spectrums showed the impacts of an extreme drought period and the agricultural management. The inter-conversion between the scenarios gave high morphological similarities in the obtained wavelet coherence spectrums, and the validation process clearly showed high efficiency of the developed model against old methodologies when comparing with Nash-Stucliffe criterion. Although there is need for further investigation with different climatic and anthropic management conditions, the developed frequency models could be useful in decision-making processes by managers when faced with future global change impacts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Results of analyses performed on basalt adjacent to penetrators emplaced into volcanic rock at Amboy, California, April 1976

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blanchard, M.; Bunch, T.; Davis, A.; Shade, H.; Erlichman, J.; Polkowski, G.

1977-01-01

The physical and chemical modifications found in the basalt after impact of four penetrators were studied. Laboratory analyses show that mineralogical and elemental changes are produced in the powdered and crushed basalt immediately surrounding the penetrator. Optical microscopy studies of material next to the skin of the penetrator revealed a layer, 0-2 mm thick, of glass and abraded iron alloy mixed with fractured mineral grains of basalt. Elemental analysis of the 0-2 mm layer revealed increased concentrations of Fe, Cr, Ni, No, and Mn, and reduced concentrations of Mg, Al, Si, and Ca. The Fe, Cr, Ni, and Mo were in fragments abraded from the penetrator. Mineralogical changes occurring in the basalt sediment next to the penetrator include the introduction of micron-size grains of alpha-iron, magnetite, and hematite. The newly formed silicate minerals include metastable phases of silica (tridymite and cristobalite). An increased concentration of Fe, Cr, Ni, and Mo occurred in the 2-mm to 1-cm layer of penetrator no. 1, which impacted at the highest velocity. No elemental concentration increase was noted for penetrators nos. 2 and 3 in the 2-mm to 1-cm layer. Contaminants introduced by the penetrator occur up to 1 cm away from the penetrator's skin. Although volatile elements do migrate and new minerals are formed during the destruction of host minerals in the crushed rock, no changes were observed beyond the 1-cm distance.

An Armillaria survey in Mexico: A basis for determining evolutionary relationships, assessing potentially invasive pathogens, evaluating future impacts of climate change, and developing international collaborations in forest pathology

Treesearch

Phil Cannon; Ned B. Klopfenstein; Mee-Sook Kim; John W. Hanna; Dionicio Alvarado Rosales

2008-01-01

In September 2007, a collaborative effort was made to survey Armillaria species in three general areas of south-central Mexico. Collected Armillaria isolates will be subjected to DNA analyses to examine genetic relationships with other Armillaria species. These studies will provide baseline information for examining evolution of Armillaria...

Challenges in predicting climate change impacts on pome fruit phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darbyshire, Rebecca; Webb, Leanne; Goodwin, Ian; Barlow, E. W. R.

2014-08-01

Climate projection data were applied to two commonly used pome fruit flowering models to investigate potential differences in predicted full bloom timing. The two methods, fixed thermal time and sequential chill-growth, produced different results for seven apple and pear varieties at two Australian locations. The fixed thermal time model predicted incremental advancement of full bloom, while results were mixed from the sequential chill-growth model. To further investigate how the sequential chill-growth model reacts under climate perturbed conditions, four simulations were created to represent a wider range of species physiological requirements. These were applied to five Australian locations covering varied climates. Lengthening of the chill period and contraction of the growth period was common to most results. The relative dominance of the chill or growth component tended to predict whether full bloom advanced, remained similar or was delayed with climate warming. The simplistic structure of the fixed thermal time model and the exclusion of winter chill conditions in this method indicate it is unlikely to be suitable for projection analyses. The sequential chill-growth model includes greater complexity; however, reservations in using this model for impact analyses remain. The results demonstrate that appropriate representation of physiological processes is essential to adequately predict changes to full bloom under climate perturbed conditions with greater model development needed.

Habitat fragmentation alters the properties of a host-parasite network: rodents and their helminths in South-East Asia.

PubMed

Bordes, Frédéric; Morand, Serge; Pilosof, Shai; Claude, Julien; Krasnov, Boris R; Cosson, Jean-François; Chaval, Yannick; Ribas, Alexis; Chaisiri, Kittipong; Blasdell, Kim; Herbreteau, Vincent; Dupuy, Stéphane; Tran, Annelise

2015-09-01

1. While the effects of deforestation and habitat fragmentation on parasite prevalence or richness are well investigated, host-parasite networks are still understudied despite their importance in understanding the mechanisms of these major disturbances. Because fragmentation may negatively impact species occupancy, abundance and co-occurrence, we predict a link between spatiotemporal changes in habitat and the architecture of host-parasite networks. 2. For this, we used an extensive data set on 16 rodent species and 29 helminth species from seven localities of South-East Asia. We analysed the effects of rapid deforestation on connectance and modularity of helminth-parasite networks. We estimated both the degree of fragmentation and the rate of deforestation through the development of land uses and their changes through the last 20 to 30 years in order to take into account the dynamics of habitat fragmentation in our statistical analyses. 3. We found that rapid fragmentation does not affect helminth species richness per se but impacts host-parasite interactions as the rodent-helminth network becomes less connected and more modular. 4. Our results suggest that parasite sharing among host species may become more difficult to maintain with the increase of habitat disturbance. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Hot topics in biodiversity and climate change research

PubMed Central

Brook, Barry W.; Fordham, Damien A.

2015-01-01

With scientific and societal interest in biodiversity impacts of climate change growing enormously over the last decade, we analysed directions and biases in the recent most highly cited data papers in this field of research (from 2012 to 2014). The majority of this work relied on leveraging large databases of already collected historical information (but not paleo- or genetic data), and coupled these to new methodologies for making forward projections of shifts in species’ geographical ranges, with a focus on temperate and montane plants. A consistent finding was that the pace of climate-driven habitat change, along with increased frequency of extreme events, is outpacing the capacity of species or ecological communities to respond and adapt. PMID:26594350

Impact of fire on global land surface air temperature and energy budget for the 20th century due to changes within ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Fang; Lawrence, David M.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

2017-04-01

Fire is a global phenomenon and tightly interacts with the biosphere and climate. This study provides the first quantitative assessment and understanding of fire’s influence on the global annual land surface air temperature and energy budget through its impact on terrestrial ecosystems. Fire impacts are quantified by comparing fire-on and fire-off simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Results show that, for the 20th century average, fire-induced changes in terrestrial ecosystems significantly increase global land annual mean surface air temperature by 0.18 °C, decrease surface net radiation and latent heat flux by 1.08 W m-2 and 0.99 W m-2, respectively, and have limited influence on sensible heat flux (-0.11 W m-2) and ground heat flux (+0.02 W m-2). Fire impacts are most clearly seen in the tropical savannas. Our analyses suggest that fire increases surface air temperature predominantly by reducing latent heat flux, mainly due to fire-induced damage to the vegetation canopy, and decreases net radiation primarily because fire-induced surface warming significantly increases upward surface longwave radiation. This study provides an integrated estimate of fire and induced changes in ecosystems, climate, and energy budget at a global scale, and emphasizes the importance of a consistent and integrated understanding of fire effects.

Do patient and proxy agree? Long-term changes in multiple sclerosis physical impact and walking ability on patient-reported outcome scales.

PubMed

Sonder, Judith M; Balk, Lisanne J; Bosma, Libertje V A E; Polman, Chris H; Uitdehaag, Bernard M J

2014-10-01

Patient-reported outcome scales (PROs) are useful in monitoring changes in multiple sclerosis (MS) over time. Although these scales are reliable and valid measures in longitudinal studies in MS patients, it is unknown what the impact is when obtaining longitudinal data from proxies. The objective of this paper is to compare longitudinal changes in patient and proxy responses on PROs assessing physical impact of MS and walking ability. In a prospective observational study, data on the Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale (MSIS-29 physical) and Multiple Sclerosis Walking Scale (MSWS-12) were obtained from 137 patient-proxy couples at baseline and at two-year follow-up. Demographic and disease-related variables explaining agreement or disagreement between patients and proxies were investigated using linear regression analyses. Full agreement was found in 56% (MSIS) and 62% (MSWS) of the patient-proxy couples. Complete disagreement was very rare for both scales (2% MSIS, 5% MSWS). When patients were more positive than proxies, a higher age, longer disease duration, longer patient-proxy relationship and increased levels of depression, anxiety and caregiver burden in proxies were observed. In the majority of the patient-proxy couples there was agreement. Proxies can serve as a valuable source of information, but caution remains essential when using scores from proxies. © The Author(s), 2014.

Uncertainty of climate change impact on groundwater reserves - Application to a chalk aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouyère, Serge; Wildemeersch, Samuel; Therrien, René; Dassargues, Alain

2015-09-01

Recent studies have evaluated the impact of climate change on groundwater resources for different geographical and climatic contexts. However, most studies have either not estimated the uncertainty around projected impacts or have limited the analysis to the uncertainty related to climate models. In this study, the uncertainties around impact projections from several sources (climate models, natural variability of the weather, hydrological model calibration) are calculated and compared for the Geer catchment (465 km2) in Belgium. We use a surface-subsurface integrated model implemented using the finite element code HydroGeoSphere, coupled with climate change scenarios (2010-2085) and the UCODE_2005 inverse model, to assess the uncertainty related to the calibration of the hydrological model. This integrated model provides a more realistic representation of the water exchanges between surface and subsurface domains and constrains more the calibration with the use of both surface and subsurface observed data. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed on predictions. The linear uncertainty analysis is approximate for this nonlinear system, but it provides some measure of uncertainty for computationally demanding models. Results show that, for the Geer catchment, the most important uncertainty is related to calibration of the hydrological model. The total uncertainty associated with the prediction of groundwater levels remains large. By the end of the century, however, the uncertainty becomes smaller than the predicted decline in groundwater levels.

A qualitative exploration of the impact of the economic recession in Spain on working, living and health conditions: reflections based on immigrant workers' experiences.

PubMed

Ronda, Elena; Briones-Vozmediano, Erica; Galon, Tanyse; García, Ana M; Benavides, Fernando G; Agudelo-Suárez, Andrés A

2016-04-01

This study aimed to analyse how immigrant workers in Spain experienced changes in their working and employment conditions brought about Spain's economic recession and the impact of these changes on their living conditions and health status. We conducted a grounded theory study. Data were obtained through six focus group discussions with immigrant workers (n = 44) from Colombia, Ecuador and Morocco, and two individual interviews with key informants from Romania living in Spain, selected by theoretical sample. Three categories related to the crisis emerged--previous labour experiences, employment consequences and individual consequences--that show how immigrant workers in Spain (i) understand the change in employment and working conditions conditioned by their experiences in the period prior to the crisis, and (ii) experienced the deterioration in their quality of life and health as consequences of the worsening of employment and working conditions during times of economic recession. The negative impact of the financial crisis on immigrant workers may increase their social vulnerability, potentially leading to the failure of their migratory project and a return to their home countries. Policy makers should take measures to minimize the negative impact of economic crisis on the occupational health of migrant workers in order to strengthen social protection and promote health and well-being. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Hart-Devlin revisited: law, morality and consent in parenthood.

PubMed

Moss, Kate; Hughes, Rowland

2011-04-01

The debate about law and morality is not new but changing social structures and advances in science, medicine and technology have impacted the decisions courts have to make. Within the fast-changing societies of the 21st century, is judicial decision-making cognisant of these advances and how do the judiciary currently reconcile difficult emergent issues concerning law, science and morality? The dilemma of decision-making regarding frozen embryos, the gametes of deceased donors and the issue of consent is analysed by reference to recent case law and the problem of decision-making in relation to the newly possible.

Urban and regional land use analysis: CARETS and Census Cities experiment package. [Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, District of Columbia, Washington, California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, R. (Principal Investigator); Lins, H. F., Jr.; Wray, J. R.

1974-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. A number of likely applications and follow-on analyses are suggested by the census cities evaluation of ERTS-1 and Skylab data. Some of these applications are: (1) estimate water use requirements; (2) define urban expansion; (3) document the pattern of residential development and assess quality of residential environment: (4) project future population densities, and estimate changes in population distribution between censuses; (5) assess environmental impact resulting from gradual as well as catastrophic changes.

Global cropland and greenhouse gas impacts of UK food supply are increasingly located overseas

PubMed Central

Macdiarmid, Jennie I.

2016-01-01

Producing sufficient, healthy food for a growing world population amid a changing climate is a major challenge for the twenty-first century. Agricultural trade could help alleviate this challenge by using comparative productivity advantages between countries. However, agricultural trade has implications for national food security and could displace environmental impacts from developed to developing countries. This study illustrates the global effects resulting from the agricultural trade of a single country, by analysing the global cropland and greenhouse gas impacts of the UK's food and feed supply. The global cropland footprint associated with the UK food and feed supply increased by 2022 kha (+23%) from 1986 to 2009. Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) associated with fertilizer and manure application, and rice cultivation remained relatively constant at 7.9 Mt CO2e between 1987 and 2008. Including GHGE from land-use change, however, leads to an increase from 19.1 in 1987 to 21.9 Mt CO2e in 2008. The UK is currently importing over 50% of its food and feed, whereas 70% and 64% of the associated cropland and GHGE impacts, respectively, are located abroad. These results imply that the UK is increasingly reliant on external resources and that the environmental impact of its food supply is increasingly displaced overseas. PMID:26740576

Paleoindian demography and the extraterrestrial impact hypothesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchanan, Briggs; Collard, Mark; Edinborough, Kevan

2008-08-01

Recently it has been suggested that one or more large extraterrestrial (ET) objects struck northern North America 12,900 ± 100 calendar years before present (calBP) [Firestone RB, et al. (2007) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104: 16016-16021]. This impact is claimed to have triggered the Younger Dryas major cooling event and resulted in the extinction of the North American megafauna. The impact is also claimed to have caused major cultural changes and population decline among the Paleoindians. Here, we report a study in which ≈1,500 radiocarbon dates from archaeological sites in Canada and the United States were used to test the hypothesis that the ET resulted in population decline among the Paleoindians. Following recent studies [e.g., Gamble C, Davies W, Pettitt P, Hazelwood L, Richards M (2005) Camb Archaeol J 15:193-223), the summed probability distribution of the calibrated dates was used to identify probable changes in human population size between 15,000 and 9,000 calBP. Subsequently, potential biases were evaluated by modeling and spatial analysis of the dated occupations. The results of the analyses were not consistent with the predictions of extraterrestrial impact hypothesis. No evidence of a population decline among the Paleoindians at 12,900 ± 100 calBP was found. Thus, minimally, the study suggests the extraterrestrial impact hypothesis should be amended.

Paleoindian demography and the extraterrestrial impact hypothesis.

PubMed

Buchanan, Briggs; Collard, Mark; Edinborough, Kevan

2008-08-19

Recently it has been suggested that one or more large extraterrestrial (ET) objects struck northern North America 12,900 +/- 100 calendar years before present (calBP) [Firestone RB, et al. (2007) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104: 16016-16021]. This impact is claimed to have triggered the Younger Dryas major cooling event and resulted in the extinction of the North American megafauna. The impact is also claimed to have caused major cultural changes and population decline among the Paleoindians. Here, we report a study in which approximately 1,500 radiocarbon dates from archaeological sites in Canada and the United States were used to test the hypothesis that the ET resulted in population decline among the Paleoindians. Following recent studies [e.g., Gamble C, Davies W, Pettitt P, Hazelwood L, Richards M (2005) Camb Archaeol J 15:193-223), the summed probability distribution of the calibrated dates was used to identify probable changes in human population size between 15,000 and 9,000 calBP. Subsequently, potential biases were evaluated by modeling and spatial analysis of the dated occupations. The results of the analyses were not consistent with the predictions of extraterrestrial impact hypothesis. No evidence of a population decline among the Paleoindians at 12,900 +/- 100 calBP was found. Thus, minimally, the study suggests the extraterrestrial impact hypothesis should be amended.

Modeling the hydrological impacts of land use/land cover changes in the Andassa watershed, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Gashaw, Temesgen; Tulu, Taffa; Argaw, Mekuria; Worqlul, Abeyou W

2018-04-01

Understanding the hydrological response of a watershed to land use/land cover (LULC) changes is imperative for water resources management planning. The objective of this study was to analyze the hydrological impacts of LULC changes in the Andassa watershed for a period of 1985-2015 and to predict the LULC change impact on the hydrological status in year 2045. The hybrid land use classification technique for classifying Landsat images (1985, 2000 and 2015); Cellular-Automata Markov (CA-Markov) for prediction of the 2030 and 2045 LULC states; the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for hydrological modeling were employed in the analyses. In order to isolate the impacts of LULC changes, the LULC maps were used independently while keeping the other SWAT inputs constant. The contribution of each of the LULC classes was examined with the Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) model. The results showed that there was a continuous expansion of cultivated land and built-up area, and withdrawing of forest, shrubland and grassland during the 1985-2015 periods, which are expected to continue in the 2030 and 2045 periods. The LULC changes, which had occurred during the period of 1985 to 2015, had increased the annual flow (2.2%), wet seasonal flow (4.6%), surface runoff (9.3%) and water yield (2.4%). Conversely, the observed changes had reduced dry season flow (2.8%), lateral flow (5.7%), groundwater flow (7.8%) and ET (0.3%). The 2030 and 2045 LULC states are expected to further increase the annual and wet season flow, surface runoff and water yield, and reduce dry season flow, groundwater flow, lateral flow and ET. The change in hydrological components is a direct result of the significant transition from the vegetation to non-vegetation cover in the watershed. This suggests an urgent need to regulate the LULC in order to maintain the hydrological balance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relevance of emissions timing in biofuel greenhouse gases and climate impacts.

PubMed

Schwietzke, Stefan; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott

2011-10-01

Employing life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a key performance metric in energy and environmental policy may underestimate actual climate change impacts. Emissions released early in the life cycle cause greater cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) over the next decades than later emissions. Some indicate that ignoring emissions timing in traditional biofuel GHG accounting overestimates the effectiveness of policies supporting corn ethanol by 10-90% due to early land use change (LUC) induced GHGs. We use an IPCC climate model to (1) estimate absolute CRF from U.S. corn ethanol and (2) quantify an emissions timing factor (ETF), which is masked in the traditional GHG accounting. In contrast to earlier analyses, ETF is only 2% (5%) over 100 (50) years of impacts. Emissions uncertainty itself (LUC, fuel production period) is 1-2 orders of magnitude higher, which dwarfs the timing effect. From a GHG accounting perspective, emissions timing adds little to our understanding of the climate impacts of biofuels. However, policy makers should recognize that ETF could significantly decrease corn ethanol's probability of meeting the 20% GHG reduction target in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. The added uncertainty of potentially employing more complex emissions metrics is yet to be quantified.

Impact of infrasound atmospheric noise on gravity detectors used for astrophysical and geophysical applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorucci, Donatella; Harms, Jan; Barsuglia, Matteo; Fiori, Irene; Paoletti, Federico

2018-03-01

Density changes in the atmosphere produce a fluctuating gravity field that affects gravity strainmeters or gravity gradiometers used for the detection of gravitational waves and for geophysical applications. This work addresses the impact of the atmospheric local gravity noise on such detectors, extending previous analyses. In particular we present the effect introduced by the building housing the detectors, and we analyze local gravity-noise suppression by constructing the detector underground. We present also new sound spectra and correlation measurements. The results obtained are important for the design of future gravitational-wave detectors and gravity gradiometers used to detect prompt gravity perturbations from earthquakes.

Domestic Violence Courts: A Multisite Test of Whether and How They Change Offender Outcomes.

PubMed

Cissner, Amanda B; Labriola, Melissa; Rempel, Michael

2015-09-01

Findings are from an investigation of 24 criminal domestic violence courts (DVCs) across New York, testing their effect on recidivism, case processing, and case resolutions. Overall, we found a small positive impact on recidivism among convicted offenders. We further found that the sex of defendants moderated the court impact on case resolutions; that is, among male defendants only, DVCs increased conviction rates and sentences involving jail or prison. In addition, multi-level, multivariate analyses found that court policies specifically designed to increase victim safety, hold offenders accountable, and reduce offender recidivism (through deterrence or rehabilitation) were instrumental in reducing recidivism. © The Author(s) 2015.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Water Temperatures Across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehsani, N.; Knouft, J.; Ficklin, D. L.

2017-12-01

Analyses of long-term observation data have revealed significant changes in several components of climate and the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States during the twentieth and early twenty-first century. Mean surface air temperatures have significantly increased in most areas of the country. In addition, water temperatures are increasing in many watersheds across the United States. While there are numerous studies assessing the impact of climate change on air temperatures at regional and global scales, fewer studies have investigated the impacts of climate change on stream water temperatures. Projecting increases in water temperature are particularly important to the conservation of freshwater ecosystems. To achieve better insights into attributes regulating population and community dynamics of aquatic biota at large spatial and temporal scales, we need to establish relationships between environmental heterogeneity and critical biological processes of stream ecosystems at these scales. Increases in stream temperatures caused by the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide may result in a significant loss of fish habitat in the United States. Utilization of physically based hydrological-water temperature models is computationally demanding and can be onerous to many researchers who specialize in other disciplines. Using statistical techniques to analyze observational data from 1760 USGS stream temperature gages, our goal is to develop a simple yet accurate method to quantify the impacts of climate warming on stream water temperatures in a way that is practical for aquatic biologists, water and environmental management purposes, and conservation practitioners and policy-makers. Using an ensemble of five global climate models (GCMs), we estimate the potential impacts of climate change on stream temperatures within the contiguous United States based on recent trends. Stream temperatures are projected to increase across the US, but the magnitude of the changes are not expected to be uniform across the region and these relationships are expected to vary from month to month. Combined with expected changes in stream flows, the projected changes in the thermal regimes of streams can fundamentally transform stream habitats and the distribution of biodiversity.

Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers - a new tool to analyse management alternatives in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, David; Renau-Pruñonosa, Arianna; Llopis-Albert, Carlos; Morell, Ignacio; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Senent-Aparicio, Javier; Baena-Ruiz, Leticia

2018-05-01

Any change in the components of the water balance in a coastal aquifer, whether natural or anthropogenic, can alter the freshwater-salt water equilibrium. In this sense climate change (CC) and land use and land cover (LULC) change might significantly influence the availability of groundwater resources in the future. These coastal systems demand an integrated analysis of quantity and quality issues to obtain an appropriate assessment of hydrological impacts using density-dependent flow solutions. The aim of this work is to perform an integrated analysis of future potential global change (GC) scenarios and their hydrological impacts in a coastal aquifer, the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. It is a Mediterranean aquifer that extends over 75 km2 in which important historical LULC changes have been produced and are planned for the future. Future CC scenarios will be defined by using an equi-feasible and non-feasible ensemble of projections based on the results of a multi-criteria analysis of the series generated from several regional climatic models with different downscaling approaches. The hydrological impacts of these CC scenarios combined with future LULC scenarios will be assessed with a chain of models defined by a sequential coupling of rainfall-recharge models, crop irrigation requirements and irrigation return models (for the aquifer and its neighbours that feed it), and a density-dependent aquifer approach. This chain of models, calibrated using the available historical data, allow testing of the conceptual approximation of the aquifer behaviour. They are also fed with series representatives of potential global change scenarios in order to perform a sensitivity analysis regarding future scenarios of rainfall recharge, lateral flows coming from the hydraulically connected neighbouring aquifer, agricultural recharge (taking into account expected future LULC changes) and sea level rise (SLR). The proposed analysis is valuable for improving our knowledge about the aquifer, and so comprises a tool to design sustainable adaptation management strategies taking into account the uncertainty in future GC conditions and their impacts. The results show that GC scenarios produce significant increases in the variability of flow budget components and in the salinity.

Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities.

PubMed

McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J; Ebi, Kristie L

2016-11-01

Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries-Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a "likelihood versus impact" matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate change, the health risks entailed, and the limited capacity of the countries to manage and adapt in the face of such risks. Citation: McIver L, Kim R, Woodward A, Hales S, Spickett J, Katscherian D, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Kim H, Iddings S, Naicker J, Bambrick H, McMichael AJ, Ebi KL. 2016. Health impacts of climate change in Pacific island countries: a regional assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptation priorities. Environ Health Perspect 124:1707-1714; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509756.

Environmental Impact Assessment in the Visegrad Group countries

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gałaś, Slávka, E-mail: sgalas@geol.agh.edu.pl; Gałaś, Andrzej, E-mail: pollux@geol.agh.edu.pl; Zeleňáková, Martina, E-mail: martina.zelenakova@tuke.sk

Highlights: • Comparison and evaluation of EIA systems in the V4 countries are presented. • Strengths and weaknesses of EIA systems based on a questionnaire survey are stated. • The function and efficiency of the EIA application in the V4 countries are analysed. • Irregularities and shortcomings of EIA systems in the V4 should be eliminated. The Environmental Impact Assessment Directive (EIA Directive) has created a reference framework for the implementation of the system of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) into the legal systems of the Member States of the European Union, including the countries belonging to the Visegrad Group (V4):more » Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary. The Directive was the basis for the introduction of compulsory stages of the EIA process in the V4. The stages were then adapted to national requirements, including thresholds of the qualifying criteria of projects at the screening and scoping stages. The EIA system in the analysed countries has been growing, changing and being modified together with the political and economic changes of the last 30 years. Although all Visegrad Group countries are members of the EU and should harmonize the provisions of the EIA Directive and its amendments, there still exist singularities in each country's national EIA legislation, in terms of complementarities among the V4 countries, access to information resources, protection of natural resources, mitigation of socio-environmental impacts, or transboundary impact assessment. The article compares and evaluates the EIA systems in the four countries, specifies similarities and differences in the implementation of administrative proceedings and points out opportunities to strengthen the system. It presents selected results of a study conducted in 2013 within the framework of the international project “Assessment of the quality of the environment in the V4 Countries” (AQE V4). This paper indicates examples of good practice in the EIA systems and the obtained results are compared regarding the amendments to the current European Union EIA Directive.« less

Life cycle assessment of stormwater management in the context of climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Brudler, Sarah; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Rygaard, Martin

2016-12-01

Expected increases in pluvial flooding, due to climatic changes, require large investments in the retrofitting of cities to keep damage at an acceptable level. Many cities have investigated the possibility of implementing stormwater management (SWM) systems which are multi-functional and consist of different elements interacting to achieve desired safety levels. Typically, an economic assessment is carried out in the planning phase, while environmental sustainability is given little or no attention. In this paper, life cycle assessment is used to quantify environmental impacts of climate change adaptation strategies. The approach is tested using a climate change adaptation strategy for a catchment in Copenhagen, Denmark. A stormwater management system, using green infrastructure and local retention measures in combination with planned routing of stormwater on the surfaces to manage runoff, is compared to a traditional, sub-surface approach. Flood safety levels based on the Three Points Approach are defined as the functional unit to ensure comparability between systems. The adaptation plan has significantly lower impacts (3-18 person equivalents/year) than the traditional alternative (14-103 person equivalents/year) in all analysed impact categories. The main impacts are caused by managing rain events with return periods between 0.2 and 10 years. The impacts of handling smaller events with a return period of up to 0.2 years and extreme events with a return period of up to 100 years are lower in both alternatives. The uncertainty analysis shows the advantages of conducting an environmental assessment in the early stages of the planning process, when the design can still be optimised, but it also highlights the importance of detailed and site-specific data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Remote sensing monitoring of land restoration interventions in semi-arid environments with a before-after control-impact statistical design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meroni, Michele; Schucknecht, Anne; Fasbender, Dominique; Rembold, Felix; Fava, Francesco; Mauclaire, Margaux; Goffner, Deborah; Di Lucchio, Luisa M.; Leonardi, Ugo

2017-07-01

Restoration interventions to combat land degradation are carried out in arid and semi-arid areas to improve vegetation cover and land productivity. Evaluating the success of an intervention over time is challenging due to various constraints (e.g. difficult-to-access areas, lack of long-term records) and the lack of standardised and affordable methodologies. We propose a semi-automatic methodology that uses remote sensing data to provide a rapid, standardised and objective assessment of the biophysical impact, in terms of vegetation cover, of restoration interventions. The Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is used as a proxy for vegetation cover. Recognising that changes in vegetation cover are naturally due to environmental factors such as seasonality and inter-annual climate variability, conclusions about the success of the intervention cannot be drawn by focussing on the intervention area only. We therefore use a comparative method that analyses the temporal variations (before and after the intervention) of the NDVI of the intervention area with respect to multiple control sites that are automatically and randomly selected from a set of candidates that are similar to the intervention area. Similarity is defined in terms of class composition as derived from an ISODATA classification of the imagery before the intervention. The method provides an estimate of the magnitude and significance of the difference in greenness change between the intervention area and control areas. As a case study, the methodology is applied to 15 restoration interventions carried out in Senegal. The impact of the interventions is analysed using 250-m MODIS and 30-m Landsat data. Results show that a significant improvement in vegetation cover was detectable only in one third of the analysed interventions, which is consistent with independent qualitative assessments based on field observations and visual analysis of high resolution imagery. Rural development agencies may potentially use the proposed method for a first screening of restoration interventions.

Assessment of the trade-offs and synergies between low-carbon power sector transition and land and water resources of the United Kingdom using the "ForeseerTM" approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konadu, D. D.; Sobral Mourao, Z.

2016-12-01

Transitioning to a low-carbon power system has been identified as one of the main strategies for achieving GHG emissions reduction targets stipulated in the UK Climate Change Act (2008). However, projected mix of technologies aimed at achieving the targeted level of decarbonisation have implications for sustainable level natural resource exploitation at different spatial and temporal scales. Critical among these are the impact on land use (food production) and water resources, which are usually not adequately analysed and accounted for in developing these long-term energy system transition strategies and scenarios. Given the importance of the UK power sector to meeting economy-wide emissions targets, the overall environmental consequence of the prescribed scenarios could significantly affect meeting long-term legislated GHG emission reduction targets. It is therefore imperative that synergies and trade-offs between the power systems and these resources are comprehensively analysed. The current study employs an integrated energy and resource use accounting methodology, called ForeseerTM, to assess the land and water requirement for the deployment of the power sector technologies of the UK Committee on Climate Change (CCC) Carbon Budget scenarios. This is analysed under different scenarios of energy crop yield and electricity infrastructure location. The outputs are then compared with sustainable limits of resource exploitation to establish the environmental tractability of the scenarios. The results show that even if stringent environmental and land use restrictions are applied, all the projected bioenergy and ground-mounted solar PV can be deployed within the UK with no significant impacts on land use and food production. However, inland water resources would be significantly affected if high Carbon Capture and Storage deployment, and without new nuclear capacity. Overall, the output highlights that contrary to the notion of the inevitability of CCS deployment in delivering emissions reduction targets, a future without CCS poses the least overall environmental impacts.

The impact of cancer drug wastage on economic evaluations.

PubMed

Truong, Judy; Cheung, Matthew C; Mai, Helen; Letargo, Jessa; Chambers, Alexandra; Sabharwal, Mona; Trudeau, Maureen E; Chan, Kelvin K W

2017-09-15

The objective of this study was to determine the impact of modeling cancer drug wastage in economic evaluations because wastage can result from single-dose vials on account of body surface area- or weight-based dosing. Intravenous chemotherapy drugs were identified from the pan-Canadian Oncology Drug Review (pCODR) program as of January 2015. Economic evaluations performed by drug manufacturers and pCODR were reviewed. Cost-effectiveness analyses and budget impact analyses were conducted for no-wastage and maximum-wastage scenarios (ie, the entire unused portion of the vial was discarded at each infusion). Sensitivity analyses were performed for a range of body surface areas and weights. Twelve drugs used for 17 indications were analyzed. Wastage was reported (ie, assumptions were explicit) in 71% of the models and was incorporated into 53% by manufacturers; this resulted in a mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio increase of 6.1% (range, 1.3%-14.6%). pCODR reported and incorporated wastage for 59% of the models, and this resulted in a mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio increase of 15.0% (range, 2.6%-48.2%). In the maximum-wastage scenario, there was a mean increase in the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 24.0% (range, 0.0%-97.2%), a mean increase in the 3-year total incremental budget costs of 26.0% (range, 0.0%-83.1%), and an increase in the 3-year total incremental drug budget cost of approximately CaD $102 million nationally. Changing the mean body surface area or body weight caused 45% of the drugs to have a change in the vial size and/or quantity, and this resulted in increased drug costs. Cancer drug wastage can increase drug costs but is not uniformly modeled in economic evaluations. Cancer 2017;123:3583-90. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Influences of climate on aflatoxin producing fungi and aflatoxin contamination.

PubMed

Cotty, Peter J; Jaime-Garcia, Ramon

2007-10-20

Aflatoxins are potent mycotoxins that cause developmental and immune system suppression, cancer, and death. As a result of regulations intended to reduce human exposure, crop contamination with aflatoxins causes significant economic loss for producers, marketers, and processors of diverse susceptible crops. Aflatoxin contamination occurs when specific fungi in the genus Aspergillus infect crops. Many industries frequently affected by aflatoxin contamination know from experience and anecdote that fluctuations in climate impact the extent of contamination. Climate influences contamination, in part, by direct effects on the causative fungi. As climate shifts, so do the complex communities of aflatoxin-producing fungi. This includes changes in the quantity of aflatoxin-producers in the environment and alterations to fungal community structure. Fluctuations in climate also influence predisposition of hosts to contamination by altering crop development and by affecting insects that create wounds on which aflatoxin-producers proliferate. Aflatoxin contamination is prevalent both in warm humid climates and in irrigated hot deserts. In temperate regions, contamination may be severe during drought. The contamination process is frequently broken down into two phases with the first phase occurring on the developing crop and the second phase affecting the crop after maturation. Rain and temperature influence the phases differently with dry, hot conditions favoring the first and warm, wet conditions favoring the second. Contamination varies with climate both temporally and spatially. Geostatistics and multiple regression analyses have shed light on influences of weather on contamination. Geostatistical analyses have been used to identify recurrent contamination patterns and to match these with environmental variables. In the process environmental conditions with the greatest impact on contamination are identified. Likewise, multiple regression analyses allow ranking of environmental variables based on relative influence on contamination. Understanding the impact of climate may allow development of improved management procedures, better allocation of monitoring efforts, and adjustment of agronomic practices in anticipation of global climate change.

Extracting climate signals from large hydrological data cubes using multivariate statistics - an example for the Mediterranean basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauer, Agnes; Dorigo, Wouter; Bauer-Marschallinger, Bernhard

2017-04-01

Global warming is expected to change ocean-atmosphere oscillation patterns, e.g. the El Nino Southern Oscillation, and may thus have a substantial impact on water resources over land. Yet, the link between climate oscillations and terrestrial hydrology has large uncertainties. In particular, the climate in the Mediterranean basin is expected to be sensitive to global warming as it may increase insufficient and irregular water supply and lead to more frequent and intense droughts and heavy precipitation events. The ever increasing need for water in tourism and agriculture reinforce the problem. Therefore, the monitoring and better understanding of the hydrological cycle are crucial for this area. This study seeks to quantify the effect of regional climate modes, e.g. the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean. We apply Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) to a wide range of hydrological datasets to extract the major modes of variation over the study period. We use more than ten datasets describing precipitation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and changes in water mass with study periods ranging from one to three decades depending on the dataset. The resulting EOFs are then examined for correlations with regional climate modes using Spearman rank correlation analysis. This is done for the entire time span of the EOFs and for monthly and seasonally sampled data. We find relationships between the hydrological datasets and the climate modes NAO, Arctic Oscillation (AO), Eastern Atlantic (EA), and Tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA). Analyses of monthly and seasonally sampled data reveal high correlations especially in the winter months. However, the spatial extent of the data cube considered for the analyses have a large impact on the results. Our statistical analyses suggest an impact of regional climate modes on the hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean area and may provide valuable input for evaluating process-oriented climate models. The study is supported by WACMOS-MED project of the European Space Agency.

Seasonal hydrologic responses to climate change in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vano, Julie A.; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

2015-04-01

Increased temperatures and changes in precipitation will result in fundamental changes in the seasonal distribution of streamflow in the Pacific Northwest and will have serious implications for water resources management. To better understand local impacts of regional climate change, we conducted model experiments to determine hydrologic sensitivities of annual, seasonal, and monthly runoff to imposed annual and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land-surface hydrology model applied at 1/16° latitude-longitude spatial resolution over the Pacific Northwest (PNW), a scale sufficient to support analyses at the hydrologic unit code eight (HUC-8) basin level. These experiments resolve the spatial character of the sensitivity of future water supply to precipitation and temperature changes by identifying the seasons and locations where climate change will have the biggest impact on runoff. The PNW exhibited a diversity of responses, where transitional (intermediate elevation) watersheds experience the greatest seasonal shifts in runoff in response to cool season warming. We also developed a methodology that uses these hydrologic sensitivities as basin-specific transfer functions to estimate future changes in long-term mean monthly hydrographs directly from climate model output of precipitation and temperature. When principles of linearity and superposition apply, these transfer functions can provide feasible first-order estimates of the likely nature of future seasonal streamflow change without performing downscaling and detailed model simulations.

The effect of changing the inertia of a trans-tibial dynamic elastic response prosthesis on the kinematics and ground reaction force patterns.

PubMed

Hillery, S C; Wallace, E S; McIlhagger, R; Watson, P

1997-08-01

The aim of this study was to assess, by means of gait analysis, the effect on the gait of a trans-tibial amputee of altering the mass and the moment of inertia of a dynamic elastic response prosthesis. One male amputee was analysed for four to five walking trials at normal and fast cadences, using the VICON system of motion analysis and an AMTI force plate. The kinematic variables of cadence, swing time, single support time and joint angles for the knee and hip on the affected and intact sides were analysed. The ground reaction force was also analysed. The sample size was limited to one as an example to indicate the changes which are possible through simply changing the inertial characteristics. Descriptive statistics are used to demonstrate these changes. Three mass conditions for the prosthesis were analysed m1: 1080g; m2: 1080 + 530g; m3: 1080 + 1460g. The m1 condition is the mass of the prosthesis with no added weight while m2 and m3 were attachments of the same geometrical shape but were made from different materials. It was felt that the large mass range would highlight biomechanical adjustments as a result of its alteration. The effect on selected temporal characteristics were that as the speed increased the cadence changed and the affected side single support times as a percentage of the gait cycle were altered. The effect on the joint angles was also apparent at the hip and knee of both sides. The ground reaction force patterns were similar for all three mass conditions, though the impact peak which was evident in the intact limb was missing, indicating a shock absorbing property in the prosthesis. Clearly, changing the mass and moment of inertia has an effect on the kinematic variables of gait and should be considered when designing a prosthesis.

Measuring the relative resilience of subarctic lakes to global change: redundancies of functions within and across temporal scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Johnson, Richard K.

2013-01-01

1. Ecosystems at high altitudes and latitudes are expected to be particularly vulnerable to the effects of global change. We assessed the responses of littoral invertebrate communities to changing abiotic conditions in subarctic Swedish lakes with long-term data (1988–2010) and compared the responses of subarctic lakes with those of more southern, hemiboreal lakes. 2. We used a complex systems approach, based on multivariate time-series modelling, and identified dominant and distinct temporal frequencies in the data; that is, we tracked community change at distinct temporal scales. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across temporal scales. Within and cross-scale distributions of functions have been considered to confer resilience to ecosystems, despite changing environmental conditions. 3. Two patterns of temporal change within the invertebrate communities were identified that were consistent across the lakes. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second was one of showing fluctuation patterns largely unrelated to gradual environmental change. Thus, two dominant and distinct temporal frequencies (temporal scales) were present in all lakes analysed. 4. Although the contribution of individual feeding groups varied between subarctic and hemiboreal lakes, they shared overall similar functional attributes (richness, evenness, diversity) and redundancies of functions within and between the observed temporal scales. This highlights similar resilience characteristics in subarctic and hemiboreal lakes. 5. Synthesis and applications. The effects of global change can be particularly strong at a single scale in ecosystems. Over time, this can cause monotonic change in communities and eventually lead to a loss of important ecosystem services upon reaching a critical threshold. Dynamics at other spatial or temporal scales can be unrelated to environmental change. The relative ‘intactness’ of these scales that are unaffected by global change and the persistence of functions at those scales may safeguard the whole system from the potential loss of functions at the scale at which global change impacts can be substantial. Thus, an understanding of scale-specific processes provides managers with a realistic assessment of vulnerabilities and the relative resilience of ecosystems to environmental change. Explicit consideration of ‘intact’ and ‘affected’ scales in analyses of global change impacts provides opportunities to tailor more specific management plans.

Evaluation of local adaptation strategies to climate change of maize crop in Andalusia for the first half of 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabaldón, Clara; Lorite, Ignacio J.; Inés Mínguez, M.; Dosio, Alessandro; Sánchez-Sánchez, Enrique; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

2013-04-01

The objective of this work is to generate and analyse adaptation strategies to cope with impacts of climate change on cereal cropping systems in Andalusia (Southern Spain) in a semi-arid environment, with focus on extreme events. In Andalusia, located in the South of the Iberian Peninsula, cereals crops may be affected by the increase in average temperatures, the precipitation variability and the possible extreme events. Those impacts may cause a decrease in both water availability and the pollination rate resulting on a decrease in yield and the farmer's profitability. Designing local and regional adaptation strategies to reduce these negative impacts is necessary. This study is focused on irrigated maize on five Andalusia locations. The Andalusia Network of Agricultural Trials (RAEA in Spanish) provided the experimental crop and soil data, and the observed climate data were obtained from the Agroclimatic Information Network of Andalusia and the Spanish National Meteorological Agency (AEMET in Spanish). The data for future climate scenarios (2013-2050) were generated by Dosio and Paruolo (2011) and Dosio et al. (2012), who corrected the bias of ENSEMBLES data for maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation. ENSEMBLES data were the results of numerical simulations obtained from a group of regional climate models at high resolution (25 km) from the European Project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/). Crop models considered were CERES-maize (Jones and Kiniry, 1986) under DSSAT platform, and CropSyst (Stockle et al., 2003). Those crop models were applied only on locations were calibration and validation were done. The effects of the adaptations strategies, such as changes in sowing dates or choice of cultivar, were evaluated regarding water consumption; changes in phenological dates were also analysed to compare with occurrence of extreme events of maximum temperature. These events represent a threat on summer crops due to the reduction on the duration of grain filling period with the consequent reduction in yield (Ruiz-Ramos et al., 2011) and with the supraoptimal temperatures in pollination. Finally, results of simulated impacts and adaptations were compared to previous studies done without bias correction of climatic projections, at low resolution and with previous versions of crop models (Mínguez et al., 2007). This study will contribute to MACSUR knowledge Hub within the Joint Programming Initiative on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change (FACCE - JPI) of EU and is financed by MULCLIVAR project (CGL2012-38923-C02-02) and IFAPA project AGR6126 from Junta de Andalucía, Spain. References Dosio A. and Paruolo P., 2011. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, VOL. 116, D16106, doi:10.1029/2011JD015934 Dosio A., Paruolo P. and Rojas R., 2012. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Analysis of the climate change signal. Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 117, D17, doi: 0.1029/2012JD017968 Jones, C.A., and J.R. Kiniry. 1986. CERES-Maize: A simulation model of maize growth and development. Texas A&M Univ. Press, College Station. Mínguez, M.I., M. Ruiz-ramos, C.H. Díaz-Ambrona, and M. Quemada. 2007. First-order impacts on winter and summer crops assessed with various high-resolution climate models in the Iberian Peninsula. Climatic Change 81: 343-355. Ruiz-Ramos, M., E. Sanchez, C. Galllardo, and M.I. Minguez. 2011. Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 11: 3275-3291. Stockle, C.O., M. Donatelli, and R. Nelson. 2003. CropSyst , a cropping systems simulation model. European Journal of Agronomy18: 289-307.

Bayesian molecular dating: opening up the black box.

PubMed

Bromham, Lindell; Duchêne, Sebastián; Hua, Xia; Ritchie, Andrew M; Duchêne, David A; Ho, Simon Y W

2018-05-01

Molecular dating analyses allow evolutionary timescales to be estimated from genetic data, offering an unprecedented capacity for investigating the evolutionary past of all species. These methods require us to make assumptions about the relationship between genetic change and evolutionary time, often referred to as a 'molecular clock'. Although initially regarded with scepticism, molecular dating has now been adopted in many areas of biology. This broad uptake has been due partly to the development of Bayesian methods that allow complex aspects of molecular evolution, such as variation in rates of change across lineages, to be taken into account. But in order to do this, Bayesian dating methods rely on a range of assumptions about the evolutionary process, which vary in their degree of biological realism and empirical support. These assumptions can have substantial impacts on the estimates produced by molecular dating analyses. The aim of this review is to open the 'black box' of Bayesian molecular dating and have a look at the machinery inside. We explain the components of these dating methods, the important decisions that researchers must make in their analyses, and the factors that need to be considered when interpreting results. We illustrate the effects that the choices of different models and priors can have on the outcome of the analysis, and suggest ways to explore these impacts. We describe some major research directions that may improve the reliability of Bayesian dating. The goal of our review is to help researchers to make informed choices when using Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate evolutionary rates and timescales. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Untapped potential of health impact assessment.

PubMed

Winkler, Mirko S; Krieger, Gary R; Divall, Mark J; Cissé, Guéladio; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

2013-04-01

The World Health Organization has promoted health impact assessment (HIA) for over 20 years. At the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), HIA was discussed as a critical method for linking health to "green economy" and "institutional framework" strategies for sustainable development. In countries having a high human development index (HDI), HIA has been added to the overall assessment suite that typically includes potential environmental and social impacts, but it is rarely required as part of the environmental and social impact assessment for large development projects. When they are performed, project-driven HIAs are governed by a combination of project proponent and multilateral lender performance standards rather than host country requirements. Not surprisingly, in low-HDI countries HIA is missing from the programme and policy arena in the absence of an external project driver. Major drivers of global change (e.g. population growth and urbanization, growing pressure on natural resources and climate change) inordinately affect low- and medium-HDI countries; however, in such countries HIA is conspicuously absent. If the cloak of HIA invisibility is to be removed, it must be shown that HIA is useful and beneficial and, hence, an essential component of the 21st century's sustainable development agenda. We analyse where and how HIA can become fully integrated into the impact assessment suite and argue that the impact of HIA must not remain obscure.

Untapped potential of health impact assessment

PubMed Central

Krieger, Gary R; Divall, Mark J; Cissé, Guéladio; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

2013-01-01

Abstract The World Health Organization has promoted health impact assessment (HIA) for over 20 years. At the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), HIA was discussed as a critical method for linking health to “green economy” and “institutional framework” strategies for sustainable development. In countries having a high human development index (HDI), HIA has been added to the overall assessment suite that typically includes potential environmental and social impacts, but it is rarely required as part of the environmental and social impact assessment for large development projects. When they are performed, project-driven HIAs are governed by a combination of project proponent and multilateral lender performance standards rather than host country requirements. Not surprisingly, in low-HDI countries HIA is missing from the programme and policy arena in the absence of an external project driver. Major drivers of global change (e.g. population growth and urbanization, growing pressure on natural resources and climate change) inordinately affect low- and medium-HDI countries; however, in such countries HIA is conspicuously absent. If the cloak of HIA invisibility is to be removed, it must be shown that HIA is useful and beneficial and, hence, an essential component of the 21st century’s sustainable development agenda. We analyse where and how HIA can become fully integrated into the impact assessment suite and argue that the impact of HIA must not remain obscure. PMID:23599554

Technical support document: Energy conservation standards for consumer products: Dishwashers, clothes washers, and clothes dryers including: Environmental impacts; regulatory impact analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1990-12-01

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act as amended (P.L. 94-163), establishes energy conservation standards for 12 of the 13 types of consumer products specifically covered by the Act. The legislation requires the Department of Energy (DOE) to consider new or amended standards for these and other types of products at specified times. This Technical Support Document presents the methodology, data and results from the analysis of the energy and economic impacts of standards on dishwashers, clothes washers, and clothes dryers. The economic impact analysis is performed in five major areas: An Engineering Analysis, which establishes technical feasibility and product attributesmore » including costs of design options to improve appliance efficiency. A Consumer Analysis at two levels: national aggregate impacts, and impacts on individuals. The national aggregate impacts include forecasts of appliance sales, efficiencies, energy use, and consumer expenditures. The individual impacts are analyzed by Life-Cycle Cost (LCC), Payback Periods, and Cost of Conserved Energy (CCE), which evaluate the savings in operating expenses relative to increases in purchase price; A Manufacturer Analysis, which provides an estimate of manufacturers' response to the proposed standards. Their response is quantified by changes in several measures of financial performance for a firm. An Industry Impact Analysis shows financial and competitive impacts on the appliance industry. A Utility Analysis that measures the impacts of the altered energy-consumption patterns on electric utilities. A Environmental Effects analysis, which estimates changes in emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur oxides, and nitrogen oxides, due to reduced energy consumption in the home and at the power plant. A Regulatory Impact Analysis collects the results of all the analyses into the net benefits and costs from a national perspective. 47 figs., 171 tabs. (JF)« less

Head Impact Biomechanics in Women's College Soccer.

PubMed

Lynall, Robert C; Clark, Michael D; Grand, Erin E; Stucker, Jaclyn C; Littleton, Ashley C; Aguilar, Alain J; Petschauer, Meredith A; Teel, Elizabeth F; Mihalik, Jason P

2016-09-01

There are limited nonlaboratory soccer head impact biomechanics data. This is surprising given soccer's global popularity. Epidemiological data suggest that female college soccer players are at a greater concussion injury risk than their male counterparts. Therefore, the purposes of our study were to quantify head impact frequency and magnitude during women's soccer practices and games in the National Collegiate Athletic Association and to characterize these data across event type, playing position, year on the team, and segment of game (first and second halves). Head impact biomechanics were collected from female college soccer players (n = 22; mean ± SD age = 19.1 ± 0.1 yr, height = 168.0 ± 3.5 cm, mass = 63.7 ± 6.0 kg). We employed a helmetless head impact measurement device (X2 Biosystems xPatch) before each competition and practice across a single season. Peak linear and rotational accelerations were categorized based on impact magnitude and subsequently analyzed using appropriate nonparametric analyses. Overall, women's college soccer players experience approximately seven impacts per 90 min of game play. The overwhelming majority (~90%) of all head impacts were categorized into our mildest linear acceleration impact classification (10g-20g). Interestingly, a higher percentage of practice impacts in the 20g-40g range compared with games (11% vs 7%) was observed. Head impact biomechanics studies have provided valuable insights into understanding collision sports and for informing evidence-based rule and policy changes. These have included changing the football kickoff, ice hockey body checking ages, and head-to-head hits in both sports. Given soccer's global popularity, and the growing public concern for the potential long-term neurological implications of collision and contact sports, studying soccer has the potential to impact many athletes and the sports medicine professionals caring for them.

Effects of fullerene (C60), multi-wall carbon nanotubes (MWCNT), single wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNT) and hydroxyl and carboxyl modified single wall carbon nanotubes on riverine microbial communities.

PubMed

Lawrence, J R; Waiser, M J; Swerhone, G D W; Roy, J; Tumber, V; Paule, A; Hitchcock, A P; Dynes, J J; Korber, D R

2016-05-01

Commercial production of nanoparticles (NP) has created a need for research to support regulation of nanotechnology. In the current study, microbial biofilm communities were developed in rotating annular reactors during continuous exposure to 500 μg L(-1) of each nanomaterial and subjected to multimetric analyses. Scanning transmission X-ray spectromicroscopy (STXM) was used to detect and estimate the presence of the carbon nanomaterials in the biofilm communities. Microscopy observations indicated that the communities were visibly different in appearance with changes in abundance of filamentous cyanobacteria in particular. Microscale analyses indicated that fullerene (C60) did not significantly (p < 0.05) impact algal, cyanobacterial or bacterial biomass. In contrast, MWCNT exposure resulted in a significant decline in algal and bacteria biomass. Interestingly, the presence of SWCNT products increased algal biomass, significantly in the case of SWCNT-COOH (p < 0.05) but had no significant impact on cyanobacterial or bacterial biomass. Thymidine incorporation indicated that bacterial production was significantly reduced (p < 0.05) by all nanomaterials with the exception of fullerene. Biolog assessment of carbon utilization revealed few significant effects with the exception of the utilization of carboxylic acids. PCA and ANOSIM analyses of denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) results indicated that the bacterial communities exposed to fullerene were not different from the control, the MWCNT and SWNT-OH differed from the control but not each other, whereas the SWCNT and SWCNT-COOH both differed from all other treatments and were significantly different from the control (p < 0.05). Fluorescent lectin binding analyses also indicated significant (p < 0.05) changes in the nature and quantities of exopolymer consistent with changes in microbial community structure during exposure to all nanomaterials. Enumeration of protozoan grazers showed declines in communities exposed to fullerene or MWCNT but a trend for increases in all SWCNT exposures. Observations indicated that at 500 μg L(-1), carbon nanomaterials significantly alter aspects of microbial community structure and function supporting the need for further evaluation of their effects in aquatic habitats.

A Comparative Analysis of Hydrologic Response to Climate Change in Developed and Undeveloped Watersheds on the New Jersey Coastal Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daraio, J. A.

2014-12-01

Climate change is projected to have an impact on precipitation patterns across the Mid-Atlantic with the likelihood of an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events. A greater proportion of total annual precipitation could fall in larger events with the potential to impact flooding, storm water infrastructure, and water supply. The watersheds of the coastal plain of New Jersey draining to the Atlantic and Delaware Bay have mild slopes are underlain by very sandy soils. These areas serve as sources of recharge to the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer, which is an important water supply for the region. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to simulate the potential impacts of climate change on stream flow and groundwater recharge in two watersheds located within the New Jersey coastal plain. The Batsto River watershed includes parts of the Pinelands Reserve with relatively little development in some its headwater areas, primarily small towns and agricultural land use. The Maurice River watershed includes several urbanized areas along with some agricultural land, but population is expecting to increase within the next 10-20 years. The Maurice River basin is outside the Pinelands Reserve but has significant area that contains Pine Barrens. Models were calibrated using observed stream flow from USGS gages and gridded meteorological data from 1995-2002 and validated with observed data from 2002-2005. The calibrated models were forced using an ensemble of three bias-corrected downscaled climate projections (CMIP5, NOAA NCEP, and ECHAM) to assess and compare the potential response of these two watersheds. All meteorological data were obtained online from the GeoData Portal. Preliminary results indicate that climate change is likely to have a greater impact on stream flow in the developed Maurice River basin than in the undeveloped Batsto River basin. More detailed analyses of stream flow and the potential impacts on groundwater recharge are ongoing. These models will serve as the basis of further research that will examine the potential impacts of land-use change and climate change on stream flow, stream temperature, and groundwater recharge.

The impact of tobacco prices on smoking onset in Vietnam: duration analyses of retrospective data.

PubMed

Guindon, G Emmanuel

2014-01-01

The benefits of preventing smoking onset are well known, and even just delaying smoking onset conveys benefits. Tobacco control policies are of critical importance to low-income countries with high smoking rates such as Vietnam where smoking prevalence is greater than 55 % in young men between the ages of 25 and 45. Using a survey of teens and young adults, I conducted duration analyses to explore the impact of tobacco price on smoking onset. The results suggest that tobacco prices in Vietnam have a statistically significant and fairly substantial effect on the onset of smoking. Increases in average tobacco prices, measured by an index of tobacco prices and by the prices of two popular brands, are found to delay smoking onset. Of particular interest is the finding that Vietnamese youth are more sensitive to changes in prices of a popular international brand that has had favourable tax treatment since the late 1990s.

Laboratory testing protocol for the impact of dispersed petrochemicals on seagrass.

PubMed

Wilson, K G; Ralph, P J

2012-11-01

To improve the effectiveness of oil spill mitigation, we developed a rapid, logistically simple protocol to detect petrochemical stress on seagrass. Sections of leaf blades from Zostera muelleri subsp. capricorni were exposed to the water accommodated fraction (WAF) of non-dispersed and dispersed Tapis crude oil and fuel oil (IFO-380) for 5h. Photosynthetic health was monitored by assessing changes in effective quantum yield of photosystem II (ΔF/F(m)(')) and chlorophyll a pigment concentrations. Loss of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) was measured using an oil-in-water fluorometer, whilst GC-MS analyses quantified the hydrocarbon components within each treatment. Few significant differences were detected in the chlorophyll a pigment analyses; however, ΔF/F(m)(') appeared sensitive to petrochemical exposure. Dispersing both types of oil resulted in a substantial increase in the TPH of the WAF and was generally correlated with a greater physiological impact to the seagrass health, compared with the oil alone. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methods for Evaluating the Content, Usability, and Efficacy of Commercial Mobile Health Apps

PubMed Central

Silfee, Valerie J; Waring, Molly E; Boudreaux, Edwin D; Sadasivam, Rajani S; Mullen, Sean P; Carey, Jennifer L; Hayes, Rashelle B; Ding, Eric Y; Bennett, Gary G; Pagoto, Sherry L

2017-01-01

Commercial mobile apps for health behavior change are flourishing in the marketplace, but little evidence exists to support their use. This paper summarizes methods for evaluating the content, usability, and efficacy of commercially available health apps. Content analyses can be used to compare app features with clinical guidelines, evidence-based protocols, and behavior change techniques. Usability testing can establish how well an app functions and serves its intended purpose for a target population. Observational studies can explore the association between use and clinical and behavioral outcomes. Finally, efficacy testing can establish whether a commercial app impacts an outcome of interest via a variety of study designs, including randomized trials, multiphase optimization studies, and N-of-1 studies. Evidence in all these forms would increase adoption of commercial apps in clinical practice, inform the development of the next generation of apps, and ultimately increase the impact of commercial apps. PMID:29254914

Modeling Freight Ocean Rail and Truck Transportation Flows to Support Policy Analyses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gearhart, Jared Lee; Wang, Hao; Nozick, Linda Karen

Freight transportation represents about 9.5% of GDP, is responsible for about 8% of greenhouse gas emissions and supports the import and export of about 3.6 trillion in international trade; hence it is important that our national freight transportation system is designed and operated efficiently and embodies user fees and other policies that balance costs and environmental consequences. Hence, this paper develops a mathematical model to estimate international and domestic freight flows across ocean, rail and truck modes which can be used to study the impacts of changes in our infrastructure as well as the imposition of new user fees andmore » changes in operating policies. This model is applied to two case studies: (1) a disruption of the maritime ports at Los Angeles/Long Beach similar to the impacts that would be felt in an earthquake; and (2) implementation of new user fees at the California ports.« less

Controls on summer low flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, C. B.; McNamara, J. P.

2012-12-01

Summer low flow has significant impacts on aquatic flora and fauna, municipal water use, and power generation. However, the controls on the minimum annual summer discharge are complex, including a combination of snowmelt dynamics, summer evapotranspiration demand, and spring, summer precipitation patterns and surface - groundwater interactions. This is especially true in the Rocky Mountain West of the United States, where snowpack provides the majority of water available for spring runoff and groundwater replenishment. In this study, we look at summer low flow conditions at four snow dominated catchments (26 km2 - 2200 km2) in South-central Idaho currently feeling the effects of climate change. Measures of snowmelt dynamics, summer evapotranspiration demand and spring and summer precipitation are used to determine the dominant controls on late summer low flow magnitude, timing and duration. These analyses show that the controls vary between watersheds, with significant implications for the impacts of climate change in snow dominated areas of the Rocky Mountain West.

Geospatial Resource Access Analysis In Hedaru, Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Dylan G.; Premkumar, Deepak; Mazur, Robert; Kisimbo, Elibariki

2013-12-01

Populations around the world are facing increased impacts of anthropogenic-induced environmental changes and rapid population movements. These environmental and social shifts are having an elevated impact on the livelihoods of agriculturalists and pastoralists in developing countries. This appraisal integrates various tools—usually used independently— to gain a comprehensive understanding of the regional livelihood constraints in the rural Hedaru Valley of northeastern Tanzania. Conducted in three villages with different natural resources, using three primary methods: 1) participatory mapping of infrastructures; 2) administration of quantitative, spatially-tied surveys (n=80) and focus groups (n=14) that examined land use, household health, education, and demographics; 3) conducting quantitative time series analysis of Landsat- based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index images. Through various geospatial and multivariate linear regression analyses, significant geospatial trends emerged. This research added to the academic understanding of the region while establishing pathways for climate change adaptation strategies.